(5 pages) 

 HLMENV.09.WP.005.en.doc

 HIGH-LEVEL MEETING ON INTERNATIONAL AVIATION 

AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Montréal, 7 to 9 October 2009 

Agenda Item 1: Aspirational goals and implementation options

ASPIRATIONAL GOALS AND IMPLEMENTATION OPTIONS 

(Presented by the Secretariat) 

SUMMARY 

This paper presents aspirational goals developed by the GIACC to reduce 

aviation’s impact on climate change, and related proposals emanating from the 

UNFCCC process and industry, for the consideration of the HLM-ENV. 

Action by the HLM-ENV is in paragraph 7. 

1. INTRODUCTION 

1.1 The Assembly Resolution A36-22, Appendix K “ICAO Programme of Action on 

International Aviation and Climate Change” requested the Council to develop an aggressive Programme 

of Action that encompasses the identification of possible global aspirational goals in the form of fuel 

efficiency for international aviation and possible options for their implementation. 

2. ASPIRATIONAL GOALS FROM GIACC 

2.1 The GIACC held its first meeting in February 2008. At its second meeting in July 2008, 

a working group was formed to expedite work on aspirational goals. The working group presented a paper 

to the third meeting (GIACC/3-WP/2)1

 in February 2009, examining the feasibility of possible 

aspirational goals which emerged from previous discussions and providing a set of options for global 

aspirational goals in the form of fuel efficiency. The GIACC/3 subsequently developed support for a 

short-term goal until the year 2012 of improving fuel efficiency at an indicative level of 2% per year. 

Agreement was not reached on either a mid-term or long-term goals, and the GIACC/3 agreed to form 

another working group in this area to further explore options for consideration at the fourth and final 

meeting (GIACC/4) in May 2009. 

 

1

 All documents related to GIACC are available at : http://www.icao.int/env/meetings/Giacc_Root.html 

International Civil Aviation Organization

WORKING PAPER 

HLM-ENV/09-WP/5 

10/8/09
HLM-ENV/09-WP/5 - 2 -

2.2 At the GIACC/4 meeting, the working group presented a paper (GIACC/4-WP/2) 

recommending global aspirational goals in the form of fuel efficiency for the short, medium and longterm, however, the working group was not able to achieve consensus on developing goals which 

demonstrate stronger ambition e.g. carbon neutral growth or carbon emissions reductions. 

2.3 The working group recommended, and the GIACC subsequently adopted, the following 

global aspirational goals: 

• an annual fuel efficiency improvement until 2012 of 2% for the short-term; 

• an annual fuel efficiency improvement of 2% from 2013 to 2020 for the mediumterm; and 

• an annual fuel efficiency improvement of 2% from 2021 to 2050 for the long-term. 

2.4 The fuel efficiency goals agreed by the GIACC would not attribute specific obligations to 

individual States. The different circumstances, respective capabilities and contribution of developing and 

developed States to the concentration of aviation GHG emissions in the atmosphere will determine how 

each State may contribute to achieving global aspirational goals. 

2.5 In addition to fuel efficiency goals, the GIACC considered goals that could indicate 

stronger ambition. For the medium-term, the discussions focused on a goal of carbon neutral growth by 

2020. For the long-term, the GIACC discussed carbon emissions reductions. No consensus was reached in 

either case, and GIACC recommends further work on both medium and long-term goals. 

3. FUEL EFFICIENCY METRIC 

3.1 The annual fuel efficiency goals agreed by the GIACC (see paragraph 2.3 above) are 

expressed in terms of “volume of fuel used per Revenue Tonne Kilometre (RTK) performed.” This metric 

is similar to the one employed by the CAEP for its work on quantifying future CO2 emissions trends and 

fuel efficiency improvements of the global aviation system. The difference is that the CAEP metric is 

expressed in mass units instead of volume of fuel. It should be noted that the CAEP has agreed on the 

further refinement of its fuel efficiency metric in order to take into account the use of alternative fuels for 

aviation, in line with recommendations from GIACC. 

4. CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF EFFICIENCY GOALS 

4.1 The GIACC recommended a global aspirational goal of 2% annual improvement in fuel 

efficiency of the international civil aviation in-service fleet. This would represent a cumulative 

improvement from a 2005 base level of: 

• 13% (100*(1 - 0.98^7)%) until 2012 for the short-term; 

• 26% (100*(1 - 0.98^15)%) until 2020 for the medium-term; and 

• 60% (100*(1 - 0.98^45)%) until 2050 for the long-term. 
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4.2 Following the request from GIACC/3, CAEP provided GIACC/4 with the preliminary 

result of its technical work on the quantification of future CO2 emissions trends and fuel efficiency 

improvements of the global aviation system for the period 2006 through 2050 (GIACC/4-IP/1), which 

concluded that global aviation fuel burn is expected to grow from 190 Mt in 2006 to a level in 2050 in the 

range of 280 to 1,430 Mt (likely in the range of 730 to 880 Mt). Not accounting for the impact of 

alternative fuels, CO2 is predicted to grow from 600 Mt in 2006 to a level in 2050 in the range of 890 to 

4,520 Mt (likely in the range 2,300 to 2,800 Mt). 

4.3 CAEP’s work also concluded that on a per-flight basis, fuel efficiency is expected to 

continue to improve through 2050. However, even under the most aggressive technology forecast 

scenarios, this anticipated gain in efficiency from technological and operational measures does not offset 

the expected growth in demand driven emissions, but leads to an emissions “gap” relative to the 2006 (or 

earlier) levels. In order to achieve sustainability of the sector in the future, closing this gap will require 

additional interventions. A multi-faceted approach towards this objective may be possible through a 

combination of measures including deployment of alternative fuels, unforeseen technological advances, 

operational measures, and market based measures. More information on aviation’s impact on climate 

change is provided in HLM-ENV/09-IP/4. 

5. PROPOSED GOALS BY INDUSTRY 

5.1 IATA submitted a paper to the GIACC/4 (GIACC/4-IP/6), in which the airline industry 

presented the view that any regime for international aviation must be consistent with, and in proportion to 

its contribution to the overall level of global emissions. Industry’s recommended policy approach aims to 

provide measurable and verifiable progress towards carbon neutral growth in the mid-term followed by 

absolute CO2 emission reductions, while at the same time ensuring continued sustainable aviation growth 

supporting the global economy. The recommended sectoral goals are: 

• In the short-term (to 2012), despite the current economic operating climate, the 

aviation sector will continue to make investments in an attempt to collectively 

achieve improvements in fuel efficiency (litres/RTK or usg/RTM2

) of 1.5% on 

average per year until 2012; 

• In the mid-term (2013 to 2020), the aviation sector will collectively achieve further 

improvements in fuel efficiency (litres/RTK or usg/RTM) of 1.5% on average per 

year. It will strive to collectively achieve carbon neutral growth in the 2020 to 2025 

timeframe, using additional measures as appropriate, including the use of low carbon 

sustainable alternative jet fuels; and 

• In the long-term (to 2050): the aviation sector will collectively reduce its net CO2 

emissions in 2050 by 50% compared to 2005 levels. 

 

2

 usg: US gallons; RTM: Revenue Tonne Mile 
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6. UNFCCC TARGETS 

6.1 In December 2007, governments working under the auspices of the UNFCCC launched a 

new negotiating process (the Bali Roadmap3

) that aims to develop a comprehensive agreement on how to 

address climate change in the period beyond 2012. It is anticipated that such an agreement will be 

finalized by COP15 in December 2009. 

6.2 During the UNFCCC negotiations, various proposals have been put forward on global 

emission reduction targets taking into consideration the recommendations by the IPCC 4th Assessment 

Report. The proposed reductions of global CO2 emissions under consideration range between 50 and 85% 

below 1990 level by 2050. Such reductions are consistent with the IPCC scenarios relating to the 

stabilization of the atmospheric concentrations of CO2-equivalent emissions at 445 to 490 ppm level, and 

to keeping the global average temperature increase at 2.0 to 2.4oC above the pre-industrial level. 

6.3 The draft negotiating text that is currently under consideration within the UNFCCC 

process also includes proposals relating to the treatment of emissions from international aviation (and 

maritime transport).4

 Although, at present, there are no proposals for specific reduction percentages, 

Parties have been discussing how possible targets for international aviation (as part of a future climate 

change agreement) would constitute a comparative contribution from international aviation toward the 

future global emissions reduction goal mentioned in paragraph 6.2 above. 

7. ACTION BY THE HIGH-LEVEL MEETING 

7.1 The HLM-ENV is invited to: 

a) acknowledge the impact of international aviation on global climate and the need for 

the sector to contribute to the global efforts to address climate change, taking into 

account its share of responsibility; 

b) acknowledge that, in the current negotiating process under the UNFCCC, there are 

proposals considering how to address emissions from international aviation in the 

context of a new climate change agreement; 

c) acknowledge that the aviation industry has been taking very proactive steps in 

proposing emission reduction targets for the sector, i.e. the IATA’s goals of carbon 

neutral growth by 2020 and 50% emissions reduction by 2050; 

d) note that GIACC has recommended aspirational goals of annual improvement in the 

form of fuel efficiency for international civil aviation, of 2% for the short, medium 

and long-terms up to 2012, 2020 and 2050 respectively; 

e) acknowledge that these goals recommended by the GIACC and adopted by the 

Council will not reduce aviation’s absolute emissions of CO2; 

 

3

 This encompasses the Bali Action Plan (developed to address climate change under the Convention) and the continuation of the 

negotiating process on further commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol. 4

 See Appendix of HLM-ENV/09-WP/6. 
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f) agree on the need for more ambitious goals for international aviation emissions 

reductions to be established under the auspices of the ICAO; and 

g) request ICAO to establish a process in order to elaborate the implementation aspects 

of these goals agreed upon by the HLM-ENV, for the consideration of the 37th 

Session of the ICAO Assembly in 2010. 

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