LS Deparrtnent of.Ener °Y 

### Changes to NES Model since July 1998

New Defaults: April.1.999

Operating Hours, commercial sector, 1F40 & 2F40 = 3400 hours, 2F96 = 3300 hours; industrial sector = 4600 hours 

### Effective Date of Ballast Standards = 2003 Ballast Prices estimated by LBNL, as shown in the Engineering worksheet Note: The defaults listed in each section below have been set to model Scenario IA for the two ballast trial standards

. The user makes selections to model the other Scenarios.
RESULTS The Electronic Ballast Standards defaults assume 100% conversion to T12 electronic ballasts. The user can also specify a lower percentage , with the remaining percentage converting to T8 electronic ballasts. The Cathode Cutout Standards defaults assume 100% conversion to cathode cutout ballasts (using the default). The user can also specify a lower percentage converting to cathode cutout with the rest converting to electronic T12 and electronic T8. The electronic portion assumes the same T12/T8 percentages as specified for the electronic standard , new/renovation market (see below for explanation of the two market segments). 

### LIST INPUTS: For CC Standard, % of EEM Conversion to: User enters the percent converting to CC and to Electronic under the CC Standards (see explanation above). Fuel Price Projection: The AEO as well as the GRI electricity price projections have been updated using 1999 forecasts. Marginal prices have been estimated for both the commercial and industrial sectors and are used in the NPV calculations. Year to Start Standard: The default effective date for the standard is now 2003. This menu has an added feature, allowing the user to specify a delay period for the replacement ballast market. The year chosen as "effective date of ballast standard" then applies to the new /renovation market, with the standard applying to the replacement market several years later , as specified. The default value is 0 years (no delay period). See Weights below on user selection of the size of these two markets. Shipments 

# us. Department of Energy April 1999 

### Changes to NES Model since July 1998

New Defaults: Operating Hours, commercial sector, IF40 

### & 2F40 = 3400 hours, 2F96 = 3300 hours; industrial sector = 4600 hours Effective Date ofBallast Standards = 2003 Ballast Prices estimated by LBNL, as shown inthe Engineering worksheet Note: The defaults listed in each section belowhave been setto model Scenario IA for the two ballasttrial standards. The user makes selections to model the other Scenarios. 

### RESULTS The Electronic Ballast Standards defaults assume 100% conversion to TI2 electronic ballasts. The user can also specifY a lower percentage, withthe remaining percentage converting to T8 electronic ballasts. The Cathode Cutout Standards defaults assume 100% conversion to cathode cutout ballasts (using the default). The user can also specifY a lower percentage converting to cathode cutout withthe rest converting to electronic TI2 and electronic T8. The electronic portion assumes the same TI2/T8 percentages as specified for the electronic standard, new/renovation market (see below for explanation ofthe two market segments). 

### LIST INPUTS: For CC Standard, % ofEEM Conversion to: User enters the percent converting to CC and to Electronic under the CC Standards (see explanation above). Fuel Price Projection: The AEO as well as the GRl electricityprice projections have been updated using 1999 forecasts. Marginal prices have been estimated for both the commercial and industrial sectors and are used in the NPV calculations. Yearto Start Standard: The default effective date for the standard is now 2003. This menuhas

.an added feature, allowing the user to specifY a delay period for the replacement ballast market.

The year chosen as "effective date ofballast standard" then applies to the new/renovation market, with the standard applying to the replacement market several years later, as specified. The default value is 0 years (no delay period). See Weights below onuser selection ofthe size of these two markets. ShipmentsU.S. Depar°trnent of'] ner°D gy April .I9.99 The Shipments menu default scenario is Decreasing Shipments (the Constant Shipments option is still available but is not modeled for the ballast analysis.) The default years by which the shipments decrease to the base level have been set to the year 2015 for all four product classes to make them congruent with the linear regression for the 2F40 and 2F96 product classes. (The previous defaults were 2005 for 1 F40 and 2F96HO ballasts, reflecting the linear regression for those product classes.) As before, the user can adjust these years to create other Decreasing Shipments forecasts. The defaults for "Reduce Shipments To" for the base level of shipments have been adjusted to reflect 10% of the shipments for the year 1997. Ballast Assumptions This menu has been re-arranged and expanded. For four-foot fixtures, T8 ERS options have been added. In "view/edit", the user can observe or adjust: 

### ® Ballast Price, which automatically changes the equation below as well: (Total Equip + Install. Cost) = Ballast Price + (Install. + Lamp Cost). Where (Install. + Lamp Cost) equals the cost of installing ballast and lamp (or lamps). Also included is cost of new lamp (or lamps). ® Mean Lumens for four-foot fixtures ® CU (coefficient of utilization) for four-foot fixtures using 2, 3, and 4 lamps Mean lumens are the average of "Mean Lumen" from the 22nd edition of the GE Lighting 9200 Lamp Catalog and "Design Lumen" from June 1997 edition of the Philips Lamp Specification and Application Guide. The coefficient of utilization for each fixture is from the Day-Brite 1994 fixture catalog. Weights This new screen has several input sections: "% Converted to Electronic" (upper section) allows the user to specify the percentage of ballasts in the New/Renovation market segment separately from the Replacement market. These percentages may be selected separately for the I' Period and the 2nd Period. The delay period chosen in Year to Start Standard is automatically displayed to the right as "x Years Later". The defaults, with no delay period, are 63% of ballasts in the new/renovation market and 37% in the replacement market for both periods; these percentages are taken from NEMA comments. If there is a delay period, the percentage for the replacement market in the 1 period should be set to zero. The two percentages for the New/Renovation market should always add to 100%. 

## u.s. Department of Energy April 

### 1999 The Shipments menu default scenario is Decreasing Shipments (the Constant Shipments option is still available but is notmodeled for the ballast analysis.) The default years by which the shipments decrease to the base level have been setto the year 2015 for all four product classes to make them congruent withthe linearregression for the 2F40 and 2F96 product classes. (The previous defaults were 2005 for IF40 and 2F96HO ballasts, reflecting the linearregression for those product classes.) As before, the user can adjust these years to create other Decreasing Shipments forecasts. The defaults for "Reduce Shipments To" for the base level ofshipments have been adjusted to reflect 10% ofthe shipments for the year 1997. Ballast Assumptions This menu has beenre-arranged and expanded. Forfour-foot fixtures, T8 ERS options have been added. In ''view/edit'', theuser can observe or adjust:

II Ballast Price, which automatically changes the equation below as well: (Total Equip 

### +Install. Cost) 

## =Ballast Price

### + (Install. 

### +Lamp Cost). Where (InstalL 

### +Lamp Cost) equals the cost ofinstalling ballast and lamp (or lamps). Also included is cost ofnew lamp (or lamps).

II MeanLumens for four-foot fixtures

II CD (coefficient ofutilization) for four-foot fixtures using 2,3, and 4 lamps Mean lumens are the average of"Mean Lumen" from the 22nd edition ofthe GE Lighting 9200 Lamp Catalog and "DesignLumen" from June 1997 edition ofthe Philips Lamp Specification and Application Guide. The coefficient ofutilization for each fixture is from the Day-Brite 1994 fixture catalog. Weights This new screenhas several input sections:

II "% Converted to Electronic" (upper section) allows the user to specify the percentage of ballasts inthe NewlRenovation market segment separately from the Replacement market. These percentages may be selected separately for the 1 st Period and the 2nd Period. The delay period chosen in Year to Start Standard is automatically displayed to the right as 

### ''x Years Later". The defaults, with no delay period, are 63% ofballasts in the new/renovation market and 37% inthe replacement market for bothperiods; these percentages are taken from NEMA comments. Ifthere is a delayperiod, the percentage for the replacement market in the 1 st period should be setto zero. The two percentages for the NewlRenovation market should always addto 100%.U. S. Department qj'.Ener`y April .1.999

® "% Converted to T8 ERS...T12 ERS" (right section) allow the user to select percentages of electronic ballasts converted to T8 electronic and T12 electronic ballasts, for the new/renovation and the replacement markets, for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-lamp fixtures (headings on the left). The default values are 100% T12 ERS for both markets. ® "Ballast Weights in Fixtures" (middle section) are the percentages of 2-lamp magnetic ballasts in 2-lamp, 3-lamp tandem-wired, 3-lamp non-tandem wired, and 4-lamp fixtures (headings on the left). The model uses the weights for the years 1997 and 2009, assigning weights linearly to each year in between. The weights for 1997 are fixed based on Xenergy data, and assume that 20% of 3-lamp fixtures are tandem-wired. The weights for 2009 are input by the user. The default weights for 2009 assume that new buildings and tenant improvement renovations willhave weights derived from the 1997 Bureau of Census MA36-L fixture report. Tandemwiring is assumed in 20% of 3-lamp fixtures. By 2009, the new weights are assumed to have saturated the building stock and are used for all years thereafter.
"Load Defaults" restores the default weights. Shipments: This worksheet has been renamed (from T12 Shipments) and contains two scenarios for shipments from 1997 to 2030. The upper half shows shipments for the electronic ballast standard (which as noted above can include conversion to T12 as well as T8, depending on user input), and the lower half for the cathode cutout standard (which can include some electronic ballast conversion, depending on user input). The user does not change shipments in this sheet. The magnetic ballast shipments from 1998 on are calculated by the model based on the base case Shipments scenario chosen by the user in List Inputs (Decreasing or Constant). The electronic and cathode cutout shipments are calculated by the model based on user selection of the various Weights and the percentage CC & ERS. As described above, the weights for the 2-lamp ballasts in 4-foot fixtures vary from 1997 to 2009. Note that these shipments represent only those ballasts that would replace magnetic ballasts sold in the base case. Subtotals for four-foot electronic ballasts have been added. Three-lamp fixtures, non-tandem-wired, with magnetic ballasts being replaced by electronic are assumed to use single 3-lamp electronic ballasts. Tandem-wired three-lamp fixtures are assumed to remain tandem-wired using 2-lamp electronic ballasts. Four-lamp fixtures with magnetic ballasts being replaced by electronic T8 ballasts are assumed to use single 4-lamp ballasts (while those fixtures with electronic T12 ballasts have 2 ballasts). Therefore, the electronic shipment totals are lower than the magnetic shipment totals. In the cathode cutout standard, since there are no F96T12 cathode cutout ballasts, the magnetic shipments are assumed to remain magnetic ballasts. 

### US. Department of Energy April 1999

.. "% Convertedto T8 ERS

...T12 ERS" (right section) allow the userto select percentages ofelectronic ballasts converted to T8 electronic and T12 electronic ballasts, for the new/renovation and the replacement markets, for 1-,2-,3-, and 4-lamp fixtures (headings onthe left). The default values are 100% T12 ERS for both markets. "Ballast Weights inFixtures" (middle section) are the percentages of2-lamp magnetic ballasts in 2-lamp, 3-lamp tandem-wired, 3-lamp non-tandem wired, and 4-lamp fixtures (headings onthe left). The model uses the weights for the years1997 and 2009, assigning weights linearlyto eachyear inbetween. The weights for 1997 are fixed based onXenergy data, and assume that 20% of3-lamp fixtures are tandem-wired. The weights for 2009 are inputbythe user. The default weights for 2009 assume that newbuildings andtenant improvement renovations will have weights derived from the 1997 Bureau ofCensus MA36-L fixture report. Tandemwiring is assumed in 20% of3-lamp fixtures. By2009, the newweights are assumed to have saturatedthe building stock and are used for all years thereafter. "Load Defaults" restores the default weights. Shipments: This worksheethas been renamed (from T12 Shipments) and contains two scenarios for shipments from 1997 to 2030. The upper halfshows shipments for the electronic ballast standard (which as noted above can include conversion to T12 as well as T8, depending onuser input), and the lowerhalffor the cathode cutout standard (which can include some electronic ballast conversion, depending onuser input). The user does not change shipments inthis sheet. The magnetic ballast shipments from 1998 on are calculated bythe model based onthebase case Shipments scenario chosenbythe user inList Inputs (Decreasing or Constant). The electronic and cathode cutout shipments are calculatedby the model based onuser selection ofthe various Weights and the percentage CC 

### & ERS. As described above, the weights for the 2-lamp ballasts in4-foot fixtures vary from 1997 to 2009. Note thatthese shipments represent onlythose ballasts that wouldreplace magnetic ballasts sold inthebase case. Subtotals for four-foot electronic ballasts have been added. Three-lamp fixtures, non-tandem-wired, with magnetic ballasts being replaced byelectronic are assumed to use single 3-lamp electronic ballasts. Tandem-wired three-lamp fixtures are assumed to remain tandem-wired using 2-lamp electronic ballasts. Four-lamp fixtures with magnetic ballasts being replaced byelectronic T8 ballasts are assumed to use single 4-lamp ballasts (while those fixtures with electronic T12 ballasts have 2 ballasts). Therefore, the electronic shipment totals are lower thanthe magnetic shipmenttotals. Inthe cathode cutout standard, since there are no F96T12 cathode cutout ballasts, the magnetic shipments are assumed to remain magnetic ballasts.U.S. Department of '.Enery .April .19.99

Elec Con: This sheet has been added to reflect the conversion factors from kWh to Btus derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1999. The results are used to convert the energy savings results from site TWh to source Quads. 

### Ballast Retire Schedule: This worksheet replaces the four "Lifetime" worksheets and includes ballast retirement schedules for all the product classes.
Lamp Repl Schedule: Lamp equipment and replacement costs have been added the NES model. This schedule accounts for lamp replacements over the lifetime of each set of ballast shipments . The equipment costs are different for T12 vs. T8 lamps. The equipment and labor costs are different for lamps used with cathode cutout ballasts vs. magnetic and electronic ballasts (since their lifetime is shortened by CC ballasts and they are replaced more frequently over the lifetime of the ballast). Setup : The temporary choices section has been eliminated, and a few new sections added (marginal electricity price projections used in the calculations, weights for percentage conversion to electronic and percentage T8 electronic, and shipments calculations). Note that the electricity price projection (far right) is still used for the Fuel Price Projection menu graphics;.the trend is the same as those for the marginal prices and the graphs would look very similar. 

### Instruction for modeling each standards scenario (how to change from the Default settings): Scenario IA: Use Default inputs Scenario 1 B: In Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027 for all 4 product classes. Scenario 2A: In List Inputs, change CC % of EEM Conversion to 37% from 100%. In Weights, change % Converted to T8 ERS to 95% for both New and Replacement markets. Scenario 2B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027. 

### Scenario 3A: In Year to Start Standard, change the Delay Period to 5 years. In Weights, change % Converted to T8 ERS to 100% for New market and 95% for Replacement market. Scenario 3B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027. Scenario 4A: In Year to Start Standard, change the Delay Period to 2 years. In Weights, change % Converted to T8 ERS to 100% for New market and 95% for Replacement market. Scenario 4B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027. 

## u.s. Department afEnergy April 1999 

### Elec Cony: This sheet has been added to reflect the conversion factors from kWhto Btus derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1999. Theresults are used to convertthe energy savings results from site TWhto source Quads. 

### BallastRetire Schedule: This worksheet replaces the four "Lifetime" worksheets and includes ballastretirement schedules for all the product classes. 

### Lamp Repl Schedule: Lamp equipment and replacement costs have been added the NES model. This schedule accounts for lamp replacements overthe lifetime ofeach set ofballast shipments. The equipment costs are differentfor T12 vs. T8 lamps. The equipment and labor costs are different for lamps used with cathode cutout ballasts vs. magnetic and electronic ballasts (since their lifetime is shortened by CC ballasts and they are replaced more frequently over the lifetime ofthe ballast). 

### Setup: The temporary choices section has been eliminated, and a few new sections added (marginal electricityprice projections used inthe calculations, weights for percentage conversion to electronic andpercentage T8 electronic, and shipments calculations). Note thatthe electricity price projection (far right) is still used for the Fuel Price Projection menu graphics; .the trend is the same as those for the marginal prices and the graphs would look very similar. Instruction for modeling each standards scenario (howto change from the Default settings): Scenario lA: Use Default inputs Scenario IB: In Shipments, change "ByYear" values from 2015 to 2027 for all 4 product classes. Scenario 2A: In List Inputs, change CC % ofEEM Conversionto 37% from 100%. In Weights, change % Converted to T8 ERS to 95% for bothNewand Replacement markets. Scenario 2B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027. Scenario 3A: In Yearto Start Standard, change the DelayPeriodto 5 years. In Weights, change % Convertedto T8 ERS to 100% for Newmarket and 95% for Replacement market. Scenario 3B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "ByYear" values from 2015 to 2027. Scenario 4A: In Yearto Start Standard, change the Delay Period to 2 years. InWeights, change % Converted to T8 ERS to 100% for Newmarket and 95% for Replacement market. Scenario 4B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027.