LS Deparrtnent of.Ener °Y

Changes to NES Model since July 1998

New Defaults:

April.1.999

Operating Hours, commercial sector, 1F40 & 2F40 = 3400 hours, 2F96 = 3300 hours;

industrial sector = 4600 hours

Effective Date of Ballast Standards = 2003

Ballast Prices estimated by LBNL, as shown in the Engineering worksheet

Note: The defaults listed in each section below have been set to model Scenario IA for the two

ballast trial standards. The user makes selections to model the other Scenarios.

RESULTS

The Electronic Ballast Standards defaults assume 100% conversion to T12 electronic ballasts.

The user can also specify a lower percentage , with the remaining percentage converting to T8

electronic ballasts.

The Cathode Cutout Standards defaults assume 100% conversion to cathode cutout ballasts

(using the default). The user can also specify a lower percentage converting to cathode cutout

with the rest converting to electronic T12 and electronic T8. The electronic portion assumes the

same T12/T8 percentages as specified for the electronic standard , new/renovation market (see

below for explanation of the two market segments).

LIST INPUTS:

For CC Standard, % of EEM Conversion to: User enters the percent converting to CC and to

Electronic under the CC Standards (see explanation above).

Fuel Price Projection: The AEO as well as the GRI electricity price projections have been

updated using 1999 forecasts. Marginal prices have been estimated for both the commercial and

industrial sectors and are used in the NPV calculations.

Year to Start Standard: The default effective date for the standard is now 2003. This menu has

an added feature, allowing the user to specify a delay period for the replacement ballast market.

The year chosen as "effective date of ballast standard" then applies to the new/renovation market,

with the standard applying to the replacement market several years later , as specified. The

default value is 0 years (no delay period). See Weights below on user selection of the size of

these two markets.

Shipments

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67J

us. Department of Energy April 1999 

Changes to NES Model since July 1998 

New Defaults: 

Operating Hours, commercial sector, IF40 & 2F40 = 3400 hours, 2F96 = 3300 hours; 

industrial sector = 4600 hours 

Effective Date of Ballast Standards = 2003 

Ballast Prices estimated by LBNL, as shown in the Engineering worksheet 

Note: The defaults listed in each section below have been set to model Scenario IA for the two 

ballast trial standards. The user makes selections to model the other Scenarios. 

RESULTS 

The Electronic Ballast Standards defaults assume 100% conversion to TI2 electronic ballasts. 

The user can also specifY a lower percentage, with the remaining percentage converting to T8 

electronic ballasts. 

The Cathode Cutout Standards defaults assume 100% conversion to cathode cutout ballasts 

(using the default). The user can also specifY a lower percentage converting to cathode cutout 

with the rest converting to electronic TI2 and electronic T8. The electronic portion assumes the 

same TI2/T8 percentages as specified for the electronic standard, new/renovation market (see 

below for explanation of the two market segments). 

LIST INPUTS: 

For CC Standard, % ofEEM Conversion to: User enters the percent converting to CC and to 

Electronic under the CC Standards (see explanation above). 

Fuel Price Projection: The AEO as well as the GRl electricity price projections have been 

updated using 1999 forecasts. Marginal prices have been estimated for both the commercial and 

industrial sectors and are used in the NPV calculations. 

Year to Start Standard: The default effective date for the standard is now 2003. This menu has 

. an added feature, allowing the user to specifY a delay period for the replacement ballast market. 

The year chosen as "effective date of ballast standard" then applies to the new/renovation market, 

with the standard applying to the replacement market several years later, as specified. The 

default value is 0 years (no delay period). See Weights below on user selection of the size of 

these two markets. 

Shipments 
U.S. Depar°trnent of'] ner°Dgy April .I9.99

The Shipments menu default scenario is Decreasing Shipments (the Constant Shipments option

is still available but is not modeled for the ballast analysis.) The default years by which the

shipments decrease to the base level have been set to the year 2015 for all four product classes to

make them congruent with the linear regression for the 2F40 and 2F96 product classes. (The

previous defaults were 2005 for 1 F40 and 2F96HO ballasts, reflecting the linear regression for

those product classes.) As before, the user can adjust these years to create other Decreasing

Shipments forecasts. The defaults for "Reduce Shipments To" for the base level of shipments

have been adjusted to reflect 10% of the shipments for the year 1997.

Ballast Assumptions

This menu has been re-arranged and expanded. For four-foot fixtures, T8 ERS options have been

added. In "view/edit", the user can observe or adjust:

® Ballast Price, which automatically changes the equation below as well:

(Total Equip + Install. Cost) = Ballast Price + (Install. + Lamp Cost).

Where (Install. + Lamp Cost) equals the cost of installing ballast and lamp (or lamps).

Also included is cost of new lamp (or lamps).

® Mean Lumens for four-foot fixtures

® CU (coefficient of utilization) for four-foot fixtures using 2, 3, and 4 lamps

Mean lumens are the average of "Mean Lumen" from the 22nd edition of the GE Lighting 9200

Lamp Catalog and "Design Lumen" from June 1997 edition of the Philips Lamp Specification

and Application Guide. The coefficient of utilization for each fixture is from the Day-Brite 1994

fixture catalog.

Weights

This new screen has several input sections:

"% Converted to Electronic" (upper section) allows the user to specify the percentage of

ballasts in the New/Renovation market segment separately from the Replacement market.

These percentages may be selected separately for the I' Period and the 2nd Period. The

delay period chosen in Year to Start Standard is automatically displayed to the right as "x

Years Later". The defaults, with no delay period, are 63% of ballasts in the

new/renovation market and 37% in the replacement market for both periods; these

percentages are taken from NEMA comments. If there is a delay period, the percentage

for the replacement market in the 1 period should be set to zero. The two percentages

for the New/Renovation market should always add to 100%.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67J

u.s. Department of Energy April 1999 

The Shipments menu default scenario is Decreasing Shipments (the Constant Shipments option 

is still available but is not modeled for the ballast analysis.) The default years by which the 

shipments decrease to the base level have been set to the year 2015 for all four product classes to 

make them congruent with the linear regression for the 2F40 and 2F96 product classes. (The 

previous defaults were 2005 for IF40 and 2F96HO ballasts, reflecting the linear regression for 

those product classes.) As before, the user can adjust these years to create other Decreasing 

Shipments forecasts. The defaults for "Reduce Shipments To" for the base level of shipments 

have been adjusted to reflect 10% of the shipments for the year 1997. 

Ballast Assumptions 

This menu has been re-arranged and expanded. For four-foot fixtures, T8 ERS options have been 

added. In ''view/edit'', the user can observe or adjust: 

II Ballast Price, which automatically changes the equation below as well: 

(Total Equip + Install. Cost) = Ballast Price + (Install. + Lamp Cost). 

Where (InstalL + Lamp Cost) equals the cost of installing ballast and lamp (or lamps). 

Also included is cost of new lamp (or lamps). 

II Mean Lumens for four-foot fixtures 

II CD (coefficient of utilization) for four-foot fixtures using 2,3, and 4 lamps 

Mean lumens are the average of "Mean Lumen" from the 22nd edition of the GE Lighting 9200 

Lamp Catalog and "Design Lumen" from June 1997 edition of the Philips Lamp Specification 

and Application Guide. The coefficient of utilization for each fixture is from the Day-Brite 1994 

fixture catalog. 

Weights 

This new screen has several input sections: 

II "% Converted to Electronic" (upper section) allows the user to specify the percentage of 

ballasts in the NewlRenovation market segment separately from the Replacement market. 

These percentages may be selected separately for the 1 st Period and the 2nd Period. The 

delay period chosen in Year to Start Standard is automatically displayed to the right as ''x 

Years Later". The defaults, with no delay period, are 63 % of ballasts in the 

new/renovation market and 3 7% in the replacement market for both periods; these 

percentages are taken from NEMA comments. If there is a delay period, the percentage 

for the replacement market in the 1 st period should be set to zero. The two percentages 

for the NewlRenovation market should always add to 100%. 
U. S. Department qj'.Ener`y April .1.999

® "% Converted to T8 ERS...T12 ERS" (right section) allow the user to select percentages

of electronic ballasts converted to T8 electronic and T12 electronic ballasts, for the

new/renovation and the replacement markets, for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-lamp fixtures (headings

on the left). The default values are 100% T12 ERS for both markets.

® "Ballast Weights in Fixtures" (middle section) are the percentages of 2-lamp magnetic

ballasts in 2-lamp, 3-lamp tandem-wired, 3-lamp non-tandem wired, and 4-lamp fixtures

(headings on the left). The model uses the weights for the years 1997 and 2009, assigning

weights linearly to each year in between.

The weights for 1997 are fixed based on Xenergy data, and assume that 20% of 3-lamp

fixtures are tandem-wired. The weights for 2009 are input by the user. The default

weights for 2009 assume that new buildings and tenant improvement renovations will

have weights derived from the 1997 Bureau of Census MA36-L fixture report. Tandemwiring is assumed in 20% of 3-lamp fixtures. By 2009, the new weights are assumed to

have saturated the building stock and are used for all years thereafter.

"Load Defaults" restores the default weights.

Shipments: This worksheet has been renamed (from T12 Shipments) and contains two

scenarios for shipments from 1997 to 2030. The upper half shows shipments for the electronic

ballast standard (which as noted above can include conversion to T12 as well as T8, depending

on user input), and the lower half for the cathode cutout standard (which can include some

electronic ballast conversion, depending on user input).

The user does not change shipments in this sheet. The magnetic ballast shipments from 1998 on

are calculated by the model based on the base case Shipments scenario chosen by the user in List

Inputs (Decreasing or Constant). The electronic and cathode cutout shipments are calculated by

the model based on user selection of the various Weights and the percentage CC & ERS. As

described above, the weights for the 2-lamp ballasts in 4-foot fixtures vary from 1997 to 2009.

Note that these shipments represent only those ballasts that would replace magnetic ballasts sold

in the base case. Subtotals for four-foot electronic ballasts have been added. Three-lamp

fixtures, non-tandem-wired, with magnetic ballasts being replaced by electronic are assumed to

use single 3-lamp electronic ballasts. Tandem-wired three-lamp fixtures are assumed to remain

tandem-wired using 2-lamp electronic ballasts. Four-lamp fixtures with magnetic ballasts being

replaced by electronic T8 ballasts are assumed to use single 4-lamp ballasts (while those fixtures

with electronic T12 ballasts have 2 ballasts). Therefore, the electronic shipment totals are lower

than the magnetic shipment totals.

In the cathode cutout standard, since there are no F96T12 cathode cutout ballasts, the magnetic

shipments are assumed to remain magnetic ballasts.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67J

US. Department of Energy April 1999 

.. "% Converted to T8 ERS ... T12 ERS" (right section) allow the user to select percentages 

of electronic ballasts converted to T8 electronic and T12 electronic ballasts, for the 

new/renovation and the replacement markets, for 1-,2-,3-, and 4-lamp fixtures (headings 

on the left). The default values are 100% T12 ERS for both markets. 

"Ballast Weights in Fixtures" (middle section) are the percentages of2-lamp magnetic 

ballasts in 2-lamp, 3-lamp tandem-wired, 3-lamp non-tandem wired, and 4-lamp fixtures 

(headings on the left). The model uses the weights for the years1997 and 2009, assigning 

weights linearly to each year in between. 

The weights for 1997 are fixed based on Xenergy data, and assume that 20% of 3-lamp 

fixtures are tandem-wired. The weights for 2009 are input by the user. The default 

weights for 2009 assume that new buildings and tenant improvement renovations will 

have weights derived from the 1997 Bureau of Census MA36-L fixture report. Tandemwiring is assumed in 20% of 3-lamp fixtures. By 2009, the new weights are assumed to 

have saturated the building stock and are used for all years thereafter. 

"Load Defaults" restores the default weights. 

Shipments: This worksheet has been renamed (from T12 Shipments) and contains two 

scenarios for shipments from 1997 to 2030. The upper half shows shipments for the electronic 

ballast standard (which as noted above can include conversion to T12 as well as T8, depending 

on user input), and the lower half for the cathode cutout standard (which can include some 

electronic ballast conversion, depending on user input). 

The user does not change shipments in this sheet. The magnetic ballast shipments from 1998 on 

are calculated by the model based on the base case Shipments scenario chosen by the user in List 

Inputs (Decreasing or Constant). The electronic and cathode cutout shipments are calculated by 

the model based on user selection of the various Weights and the percentage CC & ERS. As 

described above, the weights for the 2-lamp ballasts in 4-foot fixtures vary from 1997 to 2009. 

Note that these shipments represent only those ballasts that would replace magnetic ballasts sold 

in the base case. Subtotals for four-foot electronic ballasts have been added. Three-lamp 

fixtures, non-tandem-wired, with magnetic ballasts being replaced by electronic are assumed to 

use single 3-lamp electronic ballasts. Tandem-wired three-lamp fixtures are assumed to remain 

tandem-wired using 2-lamp electronic ballasts. Four-lamp fixtures with magnetic ballasts being 

replaced by electronic T8 ballasts are assumed to use single 4-lamp ballasts (while those fixtures 

with electronic T12 ballasts have 2 ballasts). Therefore, the electronic shipment totals are lower 

than the magnetic shipment totals. 

In the cathode cutout standard, since there are no F96T12 cathode cutout ballasts, the magnetic 

shipments are assumed to remain magnetic ballasts. 
U.S. Department of '.Enery .April .19.99

Elec Con: This sheet has been added to reflect the conversion factors from kWh to Btus

derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1999. The results are used to convert the energy

savings results from site TWh to source Quads.

Ballast Retire Schedule: This worksheet replaces the four "Lifetime" worksheets and includes

ballast retirement schedules for all the product classes.

Lamp Repl Schedule: Lamp equipment and replacement costs have been added the NES

model. This schedule accounts for lamp replacements over the lifetime of each set of ballast

shipments. The equipment costs are different for T12 vs. T8 lamps. The equipment and labor

costs are different for lamps used with cathode cutout ballasts vs. magnetic and electronic

ballasts (since their lifetime is shortened by CC ballasts and they are replaced more frequently

over the lifetime of the ballast).

Setup: The temporary choices section has been eliminated, and a few new sections added

(marginal electricity price projections used in the calculations, weights for percentage conversion

to electronic and percentage T8 electronic, and shipments calculations). Note that the electricity

price projection (far right) is still used for the Fuel Price Projection menu graphics;.the trend is

the same as those for the marginal prices and the graphs would look very similar.

Instruction for modeling each standards scenario (how to change from the Default settings):

Scenario IA: Use Default inputs

Scenario 1 B: In Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027 for all 4 product classes.

Scenario 2A: In List Inputs, change CC % of EEM Conversion to 37% from 100%. In Weights,

change % Converted to T8 ERS to 95% for both New and Replacement markets.

Scenario 2B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027.

Scenario 3A: In Year to Start Standard, change the Delay Period to 5 years. In Weights, change

% Converted to T8 ERS to 100% for New market and 95% for Replacement market.

Scenario 3B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027.

Scenario 4A: In Year to Start Standard, change the Delay Period to 2 years. In Weights, change

% Converted to T8 ERS to 100% for New market and 95% for Replacement market.

Scenario 4B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67J

u.s. Department afEnergy April 1999 

Elec Cony: This sheet has been added to reflect the conversion factors from kWh to Btus 

derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1999. The results are used to convert the energy 

savings results from site TWh to source Quads. 

Ballast Retire Schedule: This worksheet replaces the four "Lifetime" worksheets and includes 

ballast retirement schedules for all the product classes. 

Lamp Repl Schedule: Lamp equipment and replacement costs have been added the NES 

model. This schedule accounts for lamp replacements over the lifetime of each set of ballast 

shipments. The equipment costs are different for T12 vs. T8 lamps. The equipment and labor 

costs are different for lamps used with cathode cutout ballasts vs. magnetic and electronic 

ballasts (since their lifetime is shortened by CC ballasts and they are replaced more frequently 

over the lifetime of the ballast). 

Setup: The temporary choices section has been eliminated, and a few new sections added 

(marginal electricity price projections used in the calculations, weights for percentage conversion 

to electronic and percentage T8 electronic, and shipments calculations). Note that the electricity 

price projection (far right) is still used for the Fuel Price Projection menu graphics; .the trend is 

the same as those for the marginal prices and the graphs would look very similar. 

Instruction for modeling each standards scenario (how to change from the Default settings): 

Scenario lA: Use Default inputs 

Scenario IB: In Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027 for all 4 product classes. 

Scenario 2A: In List Inputs, change CC % of EEM Conversion to 37% from 100%. In Weights, 

change % Converted to T8 ERS to 95% for both New and Replacement markets. 

Scenario 2B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027. 

Scenario 3A: In Year to Start Standard, change the Delay Period to 5 years. In Weights, change 

% Converted to T8 ERS to 100% for New market and 95% for Replacement market. 

Scenario 3B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027. 

Scenario 4A: In Year to Start Standard, change the Delay Period to 2 years. In Weights, change 

% Converted to T8 ERS to 100% for New market and 95% for Replacement market. 

Scenario 4B: Ditto, and in Shipments, change "By Year" values from 2015 to 2027.