Notes



## Wood stove 7.5 to 4.5 High Low median2013 dollars **Capital Costs R&D/Engineering costs**  Market research, aesthetic design, initial prototype design/construction/testing, formulate design changes, modify/test prototype 45,500 19,000 32,250
adjust design/test until emission target is met 47,500 30,000 38,750
construct final prototypes, safety test check. Eng. Drawings/specs, patent application 27,000 17,000 22,000 confirm final prototype performance 0 0 0 **R&D/Engineering Total costs 120,000**  **66,000 93,000** 
**Tooling** Steel Stove 31,200 9,700 20,450 Cast Iron Stove 62,000 31,000 46,500 **Average tooling cost 46,600**  **20,350 33,475** 

**Other Capital Cost components 14,000**  **6,000 10,000** HPBA costs for equipment and integration not included because these are considered duplicative of R&D costs, above

**Total Capital Cost per model 180,600** **92,350 136,475** 
**Fixed Costs per model Certification** 

EPA testing, Confirmation safety testing or full safety testing, shipping of prototype 19,000 14,500 16,750HBPA costs for personal at lab and travel expenses not accepted as independent third party testing costs Owner's manual, labeling 3,500 1,800 2,650

**Roll-out 0**  **0 0** roll-out considered normal business operation and not due to NSPS
**Total Fixed Capital Cost per model 22,500** **16,300 19,400** 
**Total Costs per Model 203,100** **108,650 155,875** 

**Annualized capital cost per model** 28,917 15,469 22,193annualized over 10 years at 7% interest **Annual cost for development of 4 models** 115,667 61,877 88,772 **Adjustable Burn Rate Stoves/Pellet Stoves** **Table 9. Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer & Nationwide Annual Costs during R&D re-design (2015-2020) and through model lifespan (2020-2029)**

(Step 1 compliance) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Step 2 compliance) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 through 2029 (Step 1

compliance) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Step 2 compliance) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 through 2029 Wood Stoves (R&D)3 34 125 $60,378 $60,378 $60,378 $60,378 $60,378 $60,378 $60,378 $60,378 $60,378 $60,378 $0 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $0
$2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $2,052,861 $0

1Nationwide Annual Cost assumes R&D investment is amortized over 10 years (2015 through 2024). The analysis extends to year 2029 (based on a model brought to market in 2020 with a lifespan of 10 years), but because woodstoves already incur certification and reporting & recordkeeping costs under the existing 1988 NSPS, no additional costs are modeled after the 10-year amortization period.

2For wood stoves, the analysis assumes that 26% meet Step 2 already so that 74% of the models will undergo re-design to meet the Step 2 level. Average Annual Cost per Manufacturer based on 10-year amortization period of R&D costs (2015-2024) to meet Step 2 limit and 10-year model life for stoves shipped in 2020 (through 2029)1,2

# Manufacturers # Models Nationwide Annual Costs1,2

AAA: Room Heaters (Wood Stoves only Sensitivity Analysis) NSPS Subpart Appliance Type

## SCC **Appliance Population**  **Total Tons Burned Emission Inventory Category**  **Pollutant Baseline**  **Emission factor**  **(lb/ton) Baseline** 

**Emissions (tons)**  **Baseline**

**Tons/appl 2015** 

**Step 1 Emission**  **Factor** 2104008220 1,303,142 1,226,184Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; non-catalytic Primary PM2.5 8.76 5,371 0.0041 8.76 2104008230 427,224 416,187Woodstove: fireplace inserts; EPA certified; catalytic Primary PM2.5 9.72 2,023 0.0047 9.72 2104008320 873,357 1,540,026Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, non-catalytic Primary PM2.5 8.76 6,745 0.0077 8.76 2104008330 374,154 775,602Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified, catalytic Primary PM2.5 9.72 3,769 0.0101 9.72 2104008400 846,931 1,175,337Woodstove: pellet-fired, general Primary PM2.5 3.06 1,798 0.0021 3.06 2,206,470 4,668,250Single Burn Rate Stoves Primary PM2.5 30.6 71,424 0.0324 8.76 2104008610 364,560 3,654,153Hydronic heater: outdoor Primary PM2.5 64 116,933 0.3208 6.4 2104008510 351,023 2,624,115Furnace: indoor, cordwood Primary PM2.5 64 83,972 0.2392 16 0.0060Baseline woodstove weighted average (Tons/appl)

## 2008 **2009 2010**  **2011 2012**  **2013 2014**  **2015 2016** 

Wood Stoves 126,527 80,851 77,617 79,169 80,752 82,367 84,015 85,695 87,409 Single Burn Rate Stoves 40,000 25,560 24,538 25,028 25,529 26,039 26,560 27,091 27,633 Pellet Stoves 130,381 83,313 79,981 81,581 83,212 84,876 86,574 88,305 90,072 Furnace: indoor, cordwood 41,000 26,199 25,151 25,654 26,167 26,690 27,224 27,769 28,324 Hydronic Heating Systems 13,385 8,553 8,211 8,375 13,100 13,362 13,629 13,902 14,180

**2008 2009**  **2010 2011**  **2012 2013**  **2014 2015**  **2016** Wood Stoves 563 360 345 352 359 367 374 381 389 Single Burn Rate Stoves 1,295 827 794 810 826 843 860 877 895 Pellet Stoves 277 177 170 173 177 180 184 187 191 Furnace: indoor, cordwood 9,808 6,267 6,017 6,137 6,260 6,385 6,513 6,643 6,776 Hydronic Heating Systems 4,293 2,743 2,634 2,686 4,202 4,286 4,372 4,459 4,548 Total **16,236 10,375**  **9,960 10,159**  **11,824 12,060**  **12,302 12,548**  **12,799 Table 4. Estimated Annual Shipped Units** 

**Table 5. Estimated PM 2.5 Emissions (Tons) -- Baseline**Baseline PM2.5 Emissions2 (tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emissions2 (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons) CE based on

nationwide average annual cost (per ton)Baseline PM2.5

Emissions(tons)NSPS PM2.5

Emissions (tons) Emission

Reduction (tons)6
20154 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 381 381 0 N/A 381 381 0 2016 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 389 389 0 N/A 770 770 0 2017 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 397 397 0 N/A 1,167 1,167 0 2018 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 445 445 0 N/A 1,612 1,612 0 2019 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 454 454 0 N/A 2,066 2,066 0 20204 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 463 259 204 $6,710 2,529 2,325 204 2021 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 472 264 208 $6,578 3,001 2,589 412 2022 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 482 269 212 $6,449 3,483 2,859 624 2023 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 491 275 216 $6,323 3,974 3,134 841 2024 $2,052,861 $1,368,574 501 280 221 $6,199 4,475 3,414 1,061 2025 $0 $1,368,574 511 286 225 $6,077 4,987 3,700 1,287 2026 $0 $1,368,574 521 292 230 $5,958 5,508 3,992 1,516 2027 $0 $1,368,574 532 298 234 $5,841 6,040 4,289 1,751 2028 $0 $1,368,574 542 303 239 $5,727 6,582 4,593 1,990 2029 $0 $1,368,574 553 310 244 $5,614 7,136 4,902 2,233 2030 7,136 4,902 2,233 2031 7,136 4,902 2,233 2032 7,136 4,902 2,233 2033 7,136 4,902 2,233 2034 7,136 4,902 2,233 2035 6,754 4,521 2,233 2036 6,365 4,132 2,233 2037 5,969 3,735 2,233 2038 5,524 3,290 2,233 2039 5,070 2,836 2,233 2040 4,607 2,577 2,029 2041 4,134 2,313 1,821 2042 3,653 2,043 1,609 2043 3,161 1,769 1,393 2044 2,660 1,488 1,172 2045 2,149 1,202 947 2046 1,628 911 717 2047 1,096 613 483 2048 553 310 244

$20,528,611 34,983 $587

3These heaters have in-home emitting lifespans of at least 20 years; thus wood stoves shipped in 2029 will be emitting through 2048.

4Estimated emissions assume Step 1 standard becomes effective in 2015 and Step 2 standard in 2020. For woodstoves, estimates assume that most models already meet the Step 1 limit and that manufacturers will certify and sell existing models meeting Step 1 standard during 2015 through 2019. Therefore no emission reductions are estimated until Step 2 in 2020.

5The nationwide cumulative cost represents the cost to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re-design to meet the NSPS assuming a 10-year model life. Cumulative Emission Reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan Nationwide cumulative cost5 **Cost Effectiveness (CE) based on annual and cumulative PM 2.5** **emissions from Wood Stoves**

Year3 Nationwide

Annual Cost1Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emission Reduction, cumulative per year CE based on total cost & cumulative emission reduction over 20-year emitting lifespan (per ton)

1Estimated nationwide annual costs are in 2013 $ and are based on a 10-year amortization period of R&D costs at a 7% interest rate (during 2015-2020 ). Years2030 through 2048 are past the 10-year model design lifespan used in this analysis.

2Except for an adjustment in year 2018 based on an industry projection (NERA), estimated annual emissions are based on a forecasted revenue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of 2.0% from 2015 through 2029, in keeping with the average annual growth in real GDP predicted by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (May 2014 Update of Global Outlook projections; see http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm).