P.1 

OAR Box 1852 

Prepped by Keeia Richards 

Document Number: 

11) ll-A-11 

Docket Number: 

A-86-03 

Printed 11/19/2008 2:38:53 PM Sheet 11 of 101 
P.2 

J B E 1 W K 

AUG - 9 1989 

EPA AIR DOCKET 

THE MOTOR FUEL 

CONSUMPTION MODEL 

THIRTEENTH PERIODICAL REPORT 

Prepared for: 

MARTIN MARIETTA ENERGY SYSTEMS, INC, 

241 West Tyrone Road 

Oak Ridge, TN 37830 

Contract No. 11X-57970-V 

Task No. 3 

Prepared by: 

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, INC. 

1655 North Fort Myer Drive 

Arlington, VA 22209 

May 26, 1987 
1 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Page 

INTRODUCTION 1-1 

SUMMARY 2-1 

MOTOR FUEL DEMAND 3-1 

3.1 Trends in Motor Fuel Demand 3-1 

3.2 Comparison with the Twelfth Periodical Report 3-5 

3.3 Motor Fuel Consumption Model Inputs 3-9 

USE OF THE MODEL 4-1 

4.1 Fuel Consumption Impacts of Revised Projections 

of the Passenger Car and Light Duty Truck Fuel 

Economy Capabilities of U.S. Manufacturers 4-1 

4.2 Analysis of the Projected Impact of Lower Oil 

Prices on U.S. Energy Conservation 4-2 

REFERENCES R-l 

APPENDIX A A-1 

APPENDIX B B-l 
LIST OF TABLES 

Page 

2-1 MFC Model Summary Data for Highway Vehicles 

April 1986 Output 2-2 

2-2 Summary Comparison of the Current MFC Model Output 

Versus the Twelfth Periodical Report 2-6 

3-1 Total Motor Fuel Consumption 3-2 

3-2 Fuel Consumption by Vehicle Type 3-4 

3-3 Passenger Car and Light Truck Fuel Consumption 

by Fuel Type 3-6 

3-4 Heavy-Duty Truck Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type 3-7 

3-5 New Vehicle EPA MPG 3-11 

3-6 New Vehicle Registrations 3-14 

3-7 Distribution of New Truck Registrations 

Weight Category 3-16 

3-8 New Vehicle Diesel Penetration 3-19 

3-9 Revised Estimates of Fuel Economy Shortfall 3-21 

3-10 Fuel Switching Rates by Model Year and Vintage 3-25 

3-11 Passenger Car AMPD/Odometer Factor for In-Use 

Fuel Economy 3-27 

3-12 Off-Highway Gasoline Use 3-29 

3-13 Ethanol and Methanol Shares of Unleaded Gasoline 3-31 

3-14 Ethanol and Methanol Shares of Leaded Gasoline 3-32 

4-1 Incremental Fuel Consumption Impacts of Changes 

in Projected Corporate Average Fuel Economy 4-3 

4-2 Components of Transportation Energy Conservation 

from Frozen EUI Baseline 4-5 
P.5 

LIST OF FIGURES 

2-1 Motor Fuel Consumption by Fuel Type ^ 

2-2 Motor Fuel Consumption by Vehicle Type ^ 

3-1 Overview of Motor Fuel Consumption Model ^ 

3-10 
P.6 

INTRODUCTION 

This document is the thirteenth of a series of periodic reports on the 

Motor Fuel Consumption (MFC) model developed for the Department of Energy 

(DOE), Office of Policy Integration, Office of Policy, Planning and 

Analysis. (1-14) The MFC model is used by DOE to evaluate the impact of 

conservation policies on fuel consumption and on the disaggregate components of fuel demand. These components include passenger cars, 

light-duty trucks, and heavy-duty vehicles. The model is not a 

forecasting tool in that it does not provide detailed econometricallybased projections of fuel demand. The model is, however, calibrated to 

current statistics on fuel consumption, fleet size, and travel growth, 

and to econometric forecasts of new vehicle sales provided by DOE. 

During the past year and a half (October 1985 - April 1987), the MFC 

model has been used to evaluate the consumption impacts of revised 

projections of light duty truck Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE). 

In addition, the model has been used to support analyses of: 1) the 

potential market for neat methanol fuels; and 2) the fuel consumption 

impacts of reductions in vehicle stock turnover. 

The purpose of this report is to provide the reader with the most current 

output of the Motor Fuel Consumption Model and to discuss revisions in 

the model structure, input data and assumptions which have occurred in 

the past year. 

1-1 
P.7 

.SUMMARY 

Since 1982 total gasoline usage has moved slowly upward from 6.5 MMB/D* 

to 7.0 MMB/D in 1986. For the balance of the 1980's and early 1990's, 

gasoline demand is projected to remain flat or drift only slightly 

downwards to 6.94 MMB/D in 1993/1994. In the late 1990's, gasoline usage 

will resume an upward trend -- reaching 7.3 MMB/D by 2000. The introduction and expanded use of cost-effective fuel efficient technologies 

in new cars and light trucks will continue to occur even under the 

assumed scenario of low fuel price trajectors. In fact, new domestic car 

EPA fuel economy will reach 29.0 mpg by 1990 and 31.5 mpg by 1995 --an 

11 percent and 21 percent increase, respectively, over the 1985 levels 

(see Table 2-1). However, this fuel economy growth will be overwhelmed 

by the effect on fuel use of passenger car vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 

which is assumed to grow 28 percent between 1985 and 1995. Within the 

total gasoline component, the volume of unleaded fuel will continue to 

expand as a result of the growth of catalyst-equipped vehicles in the 

fleet and the phaseout of leaded gasoline. 

With the advent of lead phasedown the use of alcohol fuel will increase 

as refiners explore alternatives for boosting motor fuel octanes. The 

total ethanol and methanol currently used in highway fuels is relatively 

marginal--on the order of 0.6 billion gallons in 1985. By 1995, however, 

alcohol fuels could displace up to 3.8 billion gallons or 3.4 percent of 

total gasoline consumption. 

MMB/D: millions of barrels per day. 

2-1 
•"TO 

• 

• ^ ^ 

TABLE 2-1 

MFC MODEL SUMMARY DATA FOR HIGHWAY VECHICLES 

APRIL 1987 OUTPUT* 

Total Highway Fuel (xlO9 gal) 

Heavy-Duty Vehicles 

Light-Duty Vehicles 

Automobiles 

Light Trucks 

Diesel Percent of Total Highway Fuel 

New Vehicle EPA MPG 

All automobiles 

Domestic 

Imported 

Light Trucks (0-8,500 lbs GVW) 

New Vehicle Diesel Penetration (Percent) 

All automobiles 

Domestic 

Imported 

Light Trucks (0-8,500 lbs GVW) 

EPA Versus On-Road MPG Shortfall (Percent) 

Domestic cars 

Import cars 

Light Trucks (0-8,500 lbs GVW) 

Import Share of New Car Sales (Percent) 

Price of Gasoline (1986+/gal) 

1983 

116.0 

23.9 

92.0 

73.2 

18.9 

1 13.8 

\^CrO< 

25.6 

24.2 

30.5 

20.7 

1.9 

1.4 

3.4 

7.4 

13.2 

15.7 

13.7 

26.1 

128.0 

Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. 

icA 

1985 

119.0 

24.8 

94.3 

73.7 

20.6 

14.7 

nM 

27.2 

26.1 

30.8 

20.7 

0.8 

0.4 

2.2 

1.5 

13.4 

15.3 

14.5 

25.7 

118.0 

,.l^'' 

199Q 

124.3 

25.7 

98.6 

74.3 

24.3 

15.1 

i*m 

29.9 

29.0 

32.0 

22.4 

0.5 

0.3 

1.0 

2.3 

14.5 

15.9 

15.6 

32.4 

80.9 

\{0tj^ 

1995 

126.4 

26.6 

99.8 

73.0 

26.7 

15.6 

iWir 

32.0 

31.5 

33.0 

24.0 

0.8 

0.6 

1.2 

2.3 

15.9 

16.4 

15.8 

31.9 

108.4 

2Q0Q 

134.4 

28.9 

105.5 

75.3 

30.. 2 

16.4 

•Z-L.04-

32.0 

31.5 

33.0 

24.0 

1.1 

0.9 

1.5 

2.3 

15.6 

16.4 

15.9 

33.6 

127.2 

t 
P.9 

Despite the declining fortunes of the light-duty car and light-duty truck 

diesel engine, total highway diesel fuel demand vill continue to grow 

through the remainder of the century due to increased diesel penetration 

of heavy duty vehicles. Total highway diesel fuel use will grow about 

1.5 percent/year from 1.1 MMB/D in 1985 to 1.4 MMB/D in 2000. 

Much of the growth in total motor fuel consumption can be attributed to 

light-duty trucks and heavy-duty vehicles. As illustrated in Figure 2-2, 

passenger car fuel use will remain relatively stable at 4.8 MMB/D over 

the 1986-1985 time period while light truck fuel consumption will 

increase almost 30 percent (from 1.3 MMB/D to 1.7 MMB/D) over the same 

time frame. Similarly, heavy truck fuel demand will rise 7 percent from 

1.6 MMB/D in 1985 to 1.7 MMB/D in 1995. 

The fuel demand projections shown in Figures 2-1 and 2-2 are derived 

using the Motor Fuel Consumption (MFC) model developed for the U.S. 

Department of Energy (DOE). The input data for the MFC model are revised 

periodically to incorporate: 1) the most current historical statistics 

available, and 2) updated projections of the factors influencing highway 

fuel demand. As shown in Table 2-2, changes in these factors can have a 

significant influence on the level and composition of future motor fuel 

demand. For example, total highway fuel demand in 1990 increased 12 

percent between the date of issuance of the Twelfth Periodical Report 

(November 1985) and the current output of the model. 

The current output incorporates several modifications to the input data 

for the MFC model which have been made since publication of the Twelfth 

Periodical Report. Major changes include: 1) reduction of projected new 

vehicle fuel economy to account for delays in new model introductions, 

revised estimates of fuel economy technology benefits, and shifts in 

vehicle size class mix; 2) updated projections of new vehicle sales and 

the mix of trucks by weight category; 3) calibration of the model to 

2-3 
P.10 

FIGURE 2-1 

Motor Fuel Consumption By 

Fuel Type 

MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 

ao 

a o - ^ ^ 

7J0 -

& D -

a o -

4.0 -

— Alcohol 

-T-TTTTIIIliiiiHlHHri, 

Unleaded 

1983 1988 1993 1998 

#

 OFF-HIGHWAY DIESEL NOT INCLUDED 

2-4 
P.11 

FIGURE 2-2 

Motor Fuel Consumption By 

Vehicle Type 

MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 

9J0 

a o -

7J0 -

Off Highway 

Heavy Duty Trucks 

1983 1988 1993 1998 

2-5 
TABLE 2-2 

SUMMARY COMPARISON OF THE CURRENT MFC MODEL OUTPUT 

VERSUS THE TWELFTH PERIODICAL REPORT 

ro 

Total Highway Fuel (xlO9 gal) 

Heavy-Duty Vehicles 

Light-Duty Vehicles 

Automobiles 

Light trucks 

Diesel Percent of Total Highway Fuel 

New Vehicle EPA MPG 

All Vehicles 

Domestic 

Imported 

Light Trucks (0-8,500 lbs GVW) 

New Vehicle Diesel Penetration (Percent) 

All automobiles 

Domestic 

Imported 

Light Trucks (0-8,500 lbs GVW) 

EPA Versus On-Road MPG Shortfall (Percent) 

Domestic cars 

Import cars 

Light Trucks (0-8,500 lbs GVW) 

Import Share of New Car Sales (Percent) 

Price of Gasoline (1986<fc/gal) 

16.0 18.7 

Twelfth 

Periodical 

Report 

#1 

1990 

111.5 

25.4 

86.1 

65.9 

20.1 

2000 

119.2 

28.7 

90.5 

67.7 

22.8 

April 

1987 

Output 

122Q 

124.3 

25.7 

98.6 

74.3 

24.3 

#2 

2000 

134.4 

28.9 

105.5 

75.3 

30.2 

Percent 

*2-n x 

199P 

+11.5 

+1.2 

+14.5 

+12.7 

+20.9 

Change 

100 

2000 

+12.8 

+0.7 

+16.6 

+11.2 

+32.5 

15.1 16.4 -5.6 -12.3 

31.8 

30.5 

34.8 

24.6 

1.9 

1.3 

3.0 

2.3 

15.1 

17.0 

16.3 

34.2 

129.0 

34.8 

33.6 

36.9 

27.2 

2.5 

1.5 

4.0 

3.7 

16.7 

17.6 

17.3 

39.3 

168.0 

29.9 

29.0 

32.0 

22.4 

0.5 

0.3 

1.0 

2.3 

14.5 

15.9 

15.3 

32.1 

80.9 

32.0 

31.5 

33.0 

24.0 

1.1 

0.9 

1.5 

2.3 

15.6 

16.4 

15.6 

33.6 

127.2 

-6.0 

-4.9 

-8.0 

-8.9 

-73.7 

-76.9 

-66.7 

0.0 

-4.0 

-6.5 

-6.1 

-6.1 

-37.3 

-8.0 

-6.3 

-10.6 

-11.8 

-56.0 

-40.0 

-62.5 

-37.8 

-6.6 

-6.8 

-9.8 

-14.5 

-24.3 
1983-1986 statistics on total gasoline demand, and 4) revised estimates 

of VMT/vehicle by vintage. 

The changes discussed above (and others) are outlined at length in 

Section 3 of this report. In addition, Appendix B presents detailed data 

on the annual fuel consumption of: 1) highway leaded and unleaded 

gasoline and diesel fuel by seven categories of motor vehicles, 2) leaded 

and unleaded gasoline used in off-highway applications, and 3) alcohol 

fuel used in transportation. 

2-7 
P.14 

3. MOTOR FUEL DEMAND 

3.1 TRENDS IN MOTOR FUEL DEMAND 

Table 3-1 presents motor fuel demand by fuel type for highway and offhighway applications.* Total gasoline demand drops slightly from 107.0 

billion gallons (7.0 MMB/D) in 1986 to 106.4 billion gallons (6.9 MMB/D) 

in 1993 and then increases at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent to 

reach 112.4 billion gallons (7.3 MMB/D) by the turn of the century. This 

relatively gradual rise in fuel use is largely attributable to changes in 

the relative rates of growth in the average on-road fuel economy versus 

the travel of highway vehicles. Fleet average on-road fuel economy 

increases at 2.5 percent per year from 1986 through 1993 and then drops 

to 1.2 percent through the year 2000. Total travel also rises at 2.8 

percent annually through 1993 and then decreases slightly to 2.2 percent 

per year but remains well above the growth in fleet average fuel economy 

over the balance of this century. 

With the promulgation of the EPA lead phasedown regulations, the supply 

of leaded gasoline is rapidly diminishing as many refiners are moving to 

replace this fuel with a new mid-grade unleaded gasoline. Furthermore, 

the demand for leaded gasoline is declining as the non-catalyst-equipped 

vehicles are aging and being retired from the fleet. Nevertheless, given 

the long lives of some non-catalyst vehicles (trucks in particular), and 

the continued practice of misfueling by owners of catalyst-equipped 

vehicles, the total "potential1' demand for leaded fuel could amount to 

16.1 billion gallons (15.1 percent of total gasoline consumption) in 

This does not include off-highway diesel fuel used in railroad, 

marine, agriculture, construction, etc. applications. 

3-1 
TABLE 3-1 

TOTAL MOTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION 

(billions of gallons) 

HPtor Cflsollne Al<r9h9l* 

Year 

1983 

1984 

1985 

w 1986 

1988 

1990 

1995 

2000 

Leaded 

39.94 

36.75 

33.57 

30.58 

24.93 

21.28 

16.14 

15.12 

Unleaded 

62.62 

66.30 

71.12 

76.43 

82.81 

85.67 

90.52 

97.32 

Tptal 

102.56 

103.05 

104.69 

107.01 

107.74 

106.95 

106.66 

112.44 

Percent 

Unleaded 

61.1 

64.3 

67.9 

71.4 

76.9 

80.1 

85.0 

86.9 

Blend 

Ethanol 

0.40 

0.50 

0.64 

1.12 

1.32 

1.41 

1.67 

1.75 

Blend 

Methanol 

0.05 

0.11 

0.13 

0.54 

0.95 

1.01 

2.10 

2.15 

Neat 

Methanol 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

Total 

0.45 

0.61 

0.77 

1.66 

2.27 

2.42 

3.77 

3.90 

Percent 

Methanol 

11.1 

18.0 

16.9 

32.5 

41.8 

41.7 

55.6 

55.0 

Diesel 

Fuel " 

15.99 

17.09 

17.45 

17.92 

18.46 

18.80 

19.82 

21.93 

C ' 

* * 

/ 1A£)~S 

{ A»Gj>l 

Includes highway and off-highway uses. 

* * Includes only highway uses. 

*• 
P.16 

1995. At this point (1995), 56.4 percent of total leaded gasoline 

consumption will be attributable to misfueling by owners of catalyst -

equipped vehicles, 26 percent will be accounted for by non-catalyst 

vehicles designed for leaded, and the remainder (17.6 percent) will be 

consumed in off-highway applications. 

With the phasing out of lead in gasoline, alcohol blends are assuming an 

increasing role in highway fuel consumption. The total volume of ethanol 

and methanol used in gasoline blends will increase from about 450 million 

gallons in 1983 to 3.8 billion gallons by 1995. In the short term, 

ethanol will continue to be the dominant type of alcohol used in gasoline 

blends. However, in the long run, as the technology is developed to 

improve fuel system materials compatibility and adequate fuel distribution networks are constructed, the less expensive methanol should rise to 

over 50 percent of the transportation alcohol market by 1995. 

Given the current outlook for relatively flat gasoline prices through at 

least the early 1990's, diesels are not expected to make significant inroads in the new passenger car and light truck markets. However, they 

are still cost-effective in high mileage heavy truck applications. 

Driven by an increasing penetration of the heavy-truck market, the diesel 

share of all vehicles in operation will rise slightly from 3.2 percent in 

1986 to 3.4 percent in 1995. As a result of increasing heavy truck 

activity, diesel fuel demand will rise from 17.9 billion gallons (1.2 

MMB/D) in 1986 to 19.8 billion gallons (1.3 MMB/D) in 1995. 

As shown in Table 3-2, the passenger car share of total highway fuel 

demand will drop from 61.6 percent (75.6 billion gallons) in 1986 to 

3-3 
TABLE 3-2 

FUEL CONSUMPTION BY VEHICLE TYPE1* 

(billion gallons) 

April 1987 Output 

CJJ 

•PYear 

1983 

1984 

1985 

1986 

1988 

1990 

1995 

2000 

Passenger 

Cars 

73.16 

72.69 

73.70 

75.60 

75.70 

74.29 

73.03 

75.30 

Light 

Trucks 

0-8,500 

lbs GVW 

18.87 

19.64 

20.57 

21.91 

23.45 

24.32 

26.74 

30.22 

HeavyDuty 

Vehicles 

23.93 

24.67 

24.76 

25.21 

25.45 

25.70 

26.62 

28.90 

Total 

115.95 

117.01 

119.03 

122.72 

124.60 

124.31 

126.39 

134.41 

Passenger 

Cars 

73.15 

72.19 

71.17 

69.76 

67.25 

65.92 

66.02 

67.68 

Light 

Trucks 

0-8,500 

lbs GVW 

18.18 

18.53 

18.86 

19.15 

19.63 

20.14 

21.33 

22.83 

HeavyDuty 

Vehicles 

23.82 

23.88 

24.11 

24.24 

24.74 

25.42 

26.92 

28.71 

Total 

115.15 

114.60 

114.14 

113.15 

111.62 

111.49 

114.27 

119.22 

Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. 
57.8 percent (73.0 billion gallons) by 1995. The light-duty truck share 

will rise from 17.3 percent (21.4 billion gallons) to 21.2 percent (26.7 

billion gallons) over the same time period. The heavy-duty vehicle 

component of total highway fuel consumption also will rise from 20.5 percent in 1986 to 21.1 percent (26.6 billion gallons) by 1995. These 

divergent trends are primarily due to differences between cars and light 

trucks and heavy-duty vehicles with respect to the relative growth of VMT 

and fleet average fuel economy. Between 1986 and 1995, for example, 

total passenger car VMT and fleet mpg will grow at average annual rates 

of 2.1 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, in contrast to a 4.8 

percent annual growth in LDT VMT and 2.5 percent annual increase in fleet 

on-road LDT fuel economy. 

Tables 3-3 and 3-4 present additional detail on trends in the fuel mix 

for cars and light-duty trucks and for heavy-duty vehicles. Of particular interest are the differences in the diesel fuel market shares for 

cars and light-duty trucks and for heavy-duty vehicles. For the latter, 

diesel fuel rises from 66.8 percent to 72.0 percent of total annual fuel 

use for the 1986-1995 period due to continued growth in diesel engine 

market penetration of light-heavy and mid-range heavy-duty trucks. For 

cars and LDT, the diesel share actually falls from 1.3 percent to 1.0 

percent over the 1986-1995 period because of the stagnating market for 

light-duty diesel engines. 

3.2 COMPARISON WITH THE TWELFTH PERIODICAL REPORT 

Tables 3-2 through 3-4 also compare the current output of the model with 

the one drawn from the Twelfth Periodical Report. A number of modifications have been made. These changes are presented in summary form in 

this subsection and are more fully detailed in Subsection 3.3. We have: 

3-5 
• r ^ 

TABLE 3-3 

PASSENGER CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK FUEL CONSUMPTION BY FUEL TYPE1' 

(billion gallons) 

April 1987 Output ** Twelfth Periodical Report ** 

Year 

1983 

1984 

1985 

1986 

1988 

1990 

1995 

2000 

Diesel 

1.19 

1.25 

1.24 

1.23 

1.16 

1.05 

0.92 

1.01 

Gasoline 

Leaded 

28.96 

25.59 

22.60 

19.88 

15.85 

13.33 

9.98 

9.69 

Unleaded 

61.46 

64.94 

69.73 

74.98 

80.24 

82.09 

85.48 

91.26 

Total 

91.61 

91.77 

93.57 

96.09 

97.24 

96.47 

96.38 

101.97 

Piesel 

1.20 

1.24 

1.19 

1.17 

1.17 

1.20 

1.44 

1.73 

Leaded 

30.24 

26.36 

22.81 

19.97 

15.48 

12.47 

8.82 

8.01 

Gasoline 

Unleaded 

59.48 

62.57 

65.37 

66.78 

68.86 

70.52 

74.13 

77.77 

Total 

90.92 

90.17 

89.37 

87.92 

85.51 

84.19 

84.39 

87.51 

Passenger cars and light-duty trucks under 8,500 lbs GVW. 

** Does not include alcohol fuels. 
TABLE 3-4 

HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK FUEL CONSUMPTION BY FUEL TYPE' 

(billion gallons) 

April 1987 Output ** 

Gasoline 

Year 

1983 

1984 

1985 

1986 

1988 

1990 

1995 

2000 

Pfcesel 

14.80 

15.84 

16.20 

16.69 

17.30 

17.75 

18.90 

20.92 

Leaded 

8.68 

8.33 

7.97 

7.74 

6.20 

5.11 

3.33 

2.59 

Unleaded 

0.41 

0.46 

0.53 

0.54 

1.59 

2.55 

4.01 

5.03 

Total 

23.89 

24.63 

24.70 

24.97 

25.09 

25.41 

26.24 

28.54 

-Diesel 

14.55 

15.08 

15.62 

15.90 

16.62 

17.35 

18.91 

20.53 

Twelfth Periodical Report ** 

Gasoline 

Leaded 

8.84 

8.32 

7.93 

7.69 

6.34 

5.29 

3.72 

3.09 

Unleaded 

0.40 

0.44 

0.50 

0.54 

1.57 

2.49 

3.90 

4.71 

Total 

23.79 

23.84 

24.05 

24.13 

24.53 

25.13 

26.53 

28.33 

All heavy-duty vehicles over 8,500 lbs GVW. 

** Does not include alcohol fuels. 
P.21 

• Updated the estimates of passenger car and truck annual VMT per 

vehicle by vintage 

• Revised the new vehicle sales forecast based on recent 

projections obtained from Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) 

• Updated forecasts of new vehicle fuel economy and diesel 

penetration by vehicle class based on new information 

concerning manufacturer product plans and lower fuel price 

trajectories 

• Calibrated the 1983-1986 output of the MFC model to Monthly 

Energy Review (MER), statistics on total gasoline consumption 

• Tied shifts in vehicle scrappage rates in the MFC model to 

fluctuations in new vehicle sales using a methodology previously developed for DOE (15) 

• Updated estimates of the future growth in annual average miles 

per vehicle based on an assessment of recent trends 

As noted above, a large number of changes have been made to the input 

data files and structure of the MFC model. Time and space limitations do 

not permit a detailed assessment of the incremental fuel consumption 

impacts of each of the revisions listed above. The net effect of all of 

the changes was to increase total highway fuel use by 12 percent in 1990 

and 13 percent in 1995 relative to the Twelfth Periodical Report. A 

major factor contributing to the increased fuel consumption trajectory 

was the decision to: 1) calibrate the total gasoline output of the model 

to the MER statistics published in the Monthly Energy Review so that the 

model would no longer understate the recent (1983-1987) rising trend in 

gasoline usage; 2) tie vehicle scrappage rates to fluctuations in new 

vehicle sales in order to better represent the recent significant growth 

rates in vehicles in operation; and 3) incorporate lowered projections of 

new vehicle fuel economy. 

Diesel penetration of new cars and trucks in 1995 has been reduced from 

5.3 percent in the Twelfth Periodical Report to 3.5 percent in the 

current output. This reduces the diesel share of total motor vehicles in 

operation from 4.6 percent to 3.4 percent and (in conjunction with the 

3-8 
changes in total sales and total VMT mentioned above) contributes to the 

0.5 billion gallon (2.6 percent) drop in 1995 highway diesel demand in 

the current model output relative to the Twelfth Periodical Report. 

3.3 MOTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION MODEL INPUTS 

Figure 3-1 presents a brief schematic overview of the structure of the 

Motor Fuel Consumption model. (A more detailed review of the MFC model 

methodology and operation can be found in Appendix A.) Key factors which 

influence trends in motor fuel demand and which are treated explicitly 

within the MFC model include: 

• New vehicle EPA fuel economy 

• New vehicle registrations 

• Vehicle miles of travel 

• Shortfall between EPA-measured and on-road fuel economy 

• The survival rate of new vehicles, which reflects their 

retirement over time 

• Other factors 

Fuel switching 

- AMPD/Odometer effect 

- Off-highway gasoline consumption 

- Neat methanol and alcohol blends 

Recent modifications of the model input data on each of the above 

mentioned factors are presented in the subsections which follow. 

3.3.1 New Vehicle Fuel Economy 

The new vehicle EPA fuel economy values currently used in the model are 

shown in Table 3-5. The values through 1985 are based on data published 

by EPA and on the final Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) values 

provided from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). (16, 17) 

Projections of passenger car EPA fuel economy through 1995 are drawn from 

3-9 
P.23 

FIGURE 3-1 

Overview Of Motor Fuel Consumption Model 

START 

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3-10 
TABLE 3-5 

NEW VEHICLE EPA MPG" 

Vehicle Category 

Domestic Cars 

Imported Cars 

Domestic Light Trucks 

0-8, 500 lbs GVW 

Imported Lighy Trucks 

0-8, 500 lbs GVW 

Heavy-Duty Vehicles 

greater than 8,500 lbs 

1983 

24.2 

30.5 

19.6 

27.1 

7.9 

1984 

25.3 

(25.3) 

31.8 

(30.4) 

19.0 

(19.3) 

27.1 

(26.8) 

7.8 

(7.8) 

1985 

26.1 

(25.7) 

30.8 

(30.7) 

19.7 

(19.6) 

26.4 

(26.5) 

8.2 

(8.2) 

1986 

26.5 

(27.1) 

31.3 

(31.5) 

20.0 

(21.3) 

25.7 

(27.3) 

8.3 

(8.5) 

1988 

27.8 

(29.2) 

33.0 

(33.2) 

20.9 

(22.6) 

25.2 

(28.3) 

8.4 

(8.3) 

19?0 

29.0 

(30.5) 

32.0 

(34.8) 

21.8 

(23.7) 

24.8 

(29.2) 

8.8 

(8.8) 

1995 

31.5 

(33.6) 

33.0 

(36.7) 

23.5 

(26.3) 

26.1 

(31.9) 

9.6 

(10.0) 

2000 

31.5 

(33.6) 

33.0 

(36.7) 

23.5 

(26.3) 

26.1 

(31.9) 

9.8 

(10.4) 

** 

Numbers in parentheses represent Twelfth Periodical Report estimates. 

Fuel economy estimates for trucks greater than 8,500 lbs GVW are on-road values, 
a detailed analysis of automotive fuel economy technologies, manufacturer 

tooling plana, technology cost-effectiveness and market penetration which 

is both manufacturer and size-class specific. (18) This analysis of the 

product plans and fuel economy capabilities of U.S. domestic manufacturers has since been revised in several recent studies to support: 1) 

DOE comments on petitions by the automobile manufacturers to reduce MY 

1986-MY 1988 CAFE; 2) a DOE-sponsored assessment of the likely response 

of automobile manufacturers to alternative future fuel price trajectories; and 3) an assessment by the Canadian ministry of Energy, Mines, 

and Resources of the feasibility of adopting size class specific fuel 

economy standards for new cars. (19,43) The current forecast is based on 

the Low World Oil Price Projection recently published by the U.S. Energy 

Information Administration (EIA). (20) The EIA projection shows motor 

gasoline prices drifiting downward to a low of 71«)/gallon in 1986 and 

then rising slowly to 81^/gallon in 1990 before accelerating to 

127<t/gallon by 2000 as petroleum supplies begin to tighten.* 

As shown in Table 3-5, new domestic car EPA fuel economy has been reduced 

by 1.5 mpg (to 29.0 mpg) in 1990, and by 2.1 mpg (to 31.5 mpg) in 1995. 

This is a result of lowered estimates of diesel penetration announced 

changes in manufacturer product introduction dates, and a deceleration in 

the expected fuel price trajectory.** The EPA fuel economy of new 

imported cars has been lowered by 2.8 mpg (to 32.0 mpg) in 1990, and by 

3.7 mpg (to 33.0 mpg) in 1995. These revisions reflect changes in import 

car diesel penetration, manufacturer technology introduction plans under 

** 

All fuel prices are in 1986 $. 

New domestic car average mpg includes: 1) vehicles produced by 

import manufacturers from assembly plants in the U.S. (e.g., Honda); 

2) vehicles produced under recent joint-venture agreements made by 

the U.S. and Japanese manufacturers (e.g., GM-Toyota, Chrysler-Mitsubishi. 

3-12 
P.26 

a low fuel price scenario, and a continuation of recent trends in 

"upsizing" of import car models. 

Forecasts of light truck EPA mpg are drawn from detailed analysis of 

product plans, technology introduction and penetration by market class 

and manufacturer.(18) The study has recently been updated.(21) Domestic 

LDT fuel economy will increase from 20.0 mpg in 1986 to 21.8 mpg in 1990 

and reach 23.5 mpg by 1995. The fuel economy of import LDTs (0-8,500 lbs 

GVW) will drop from 25.7 mpg in 1986 to 24.8 mpg in 1990 and then rise to 

26.1 mpg by 1995. The 1986-1990 projected decline in the average import 

LDT fuel economy is associated with manufacturer plans to increase the 

number of van model offerings and the expanded use of V-6 engines during 

this time period. 

Estimates of the EPA-measured fuel economy advantage of new dieselfueled cars and light trucks vis-a-vis gasoline cars and LDTs were 

provided by EPA. These estimates show that the diesel to gasoline fuel 

economy advantage for new cars has declined from 1.73 for pre-1976 model 

years to 1.20 for post-1983 model years. For light-duty trucks, the 

advantage drops from 1.42 for pre-MY 1979 to 1.30 for post-MY 1983. (22) 

The fuel economy projections for heavy-duty vehicles (all vehicles over 

8,500 lbs GVW) are based on work performed for the Motor Vehicle 

Manufacturers Association. (23) Heavy-duty truck fuel economy will grow 

from 8.2 mpg in 1985 to 9.6 mpg by 1995 as a result of continued improvements in diesel engine technology increase iesel market penetration and 

shifts in sales by weight class. These estimates also account for the 

effect of the EPA N0X exhaust emission regulations for 1987 and later 

heavy-duty trucks which are expected to reduce fuel economy by an average 

of about 5 percent. 

3-13 
• 

4> 

Vehicle Category 

Domestic Cars 

Imported Cars 

Domestic Light Trucks 

0-8,500 lbs GVW 

Imported Light Trucks 

0-8,500 lbs GVW 

Heavy-Duty Vehicles 

greater than 8,500 

lbs GVW 

Numbers in parentheses 

1983 

6.59 

2.33 

1.88 

0.43 

0.60 

NEW 

1984 

7.79 

2.33 

2.58 

0.74 

0.72 

TABLE : J-6 

VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS 

(106 units) 

1985 

8.20 

(7.92) 

2.84 

(2.49) 

3.12 

(2.71) 

0.85 

(0.90) 

0.87 

(0.90) 

1986 

8.22 

(7.30) 

3.24 

(3.30) 

3.11 

(2.77) 

1.07 

(0.87) 

0.73 

(0.89) 

* 

1988 

7.50 

(7.10) 

3.50 

(3.80) 

3.14 

(3.06) 

0.90 

(0.74) 

0.76 

(0.92) 

1990 

7.10 

(7.70) 

3.40 

(4.00) 

3.17 

(3.22) 

0.86 

(0.74) 

0.79 

(0.91) 

represent Twelfth Periodical Report estimates. 

1995 

7.90 

(7.80) 

3.80 

(4.60) 

3.76 

(3.49) 

1.02 

(0.79) 

0.89 

(1.00) 

• 

200Q 

8.10 

(7.40) 

4.10 

(4.80) 

4.28 

(3.58) 

1.16 

(0.89) 

1.02 

(1.04) 
P.28 

3.3.2 Naw Vehicle Re-fiatratlona 

Table 3-6 shows projected new vehicle registrations. The 1985 and 1986 

statistics have been updated based upon the most recent data available in 

Automotive News. 

The post-1985 projection of new vehicle registrations is derived from the 

DRI forecast, "TRENDL0NG0387" that was provided by DOE. (24) This 

forecast was used in order to remain consistent with other econometric 

projections of new vehicle sales used within DOE. The forecast shows 

that car sales will drop from 11.46 million units in 1986 to 10.5 million 

units in 1990 and then increase at 1.5 percent per year to reach a volume 

of 12.2 million units by 2000. 

Based on the DRI forecast, truck sales will decline from 4.95 million 

units in 1986 to 4.74 million units in 1990 and then rise at an average 

annual rate of 3.5 percent over the next decade to reach 6.68 million 

units by 2000. 

In comparison with the Twelfth Periodical Report, the current DRI 

forecast shows a 1.2 million unit drop in new car sales in 1990. (New 

car sales volume will reach 10.5 million units in 1990 instead of the 

earlier projection of 11.7 million units). Estimates of 1995 sales also 

are lower by about 700,000 units while the projection of 12.2 million 

units for 2000 is unchanged. The current DRI total truck forecast shows 

a 1990 sales estimate which is 130,000 units (2.7 percent) less than 

previously expected. The outlook for 2000 shows sales of 1.25 million 

more units than that indicated in the DRI forecast Used for the Twelfth 

Periodical Report. 

To reflect the recent growth in the market shares of import light-duty 

trucks and light-heavy-duty vehicles, estimates of the future distribu3-15 
P.29 

TABLE 3-7 

DISTRIBUTION OF NEW TRUCK REGISTRATIONS 

:GHT CATEG( 

(percent) 

WEIGHT CATEGORY* 

Year 

1983 

1986 

1990 

1995 

Domestic 

LDT 

64.7 

(64.7) 

63.4 

(61.1) 

65.7 

(66.0) 

66.3 

(66.2) 

Import 

LDT 

14.8 

(U.8) 

21.7 

(19.2) 

17.8 

(15.2) 

18.0 

(14.9) 

Light 

PV 

14.4 

(14.4) 

9.5 

(14.0) 

11.3 

(12.2) 

10.8 

(12.2) 

Medium 

HDV 

3.5 

(3.5) 

3.3 

(3.3) 

3.1 

(3.7) 

3.0 

(3.8) 

Heavy 

HDV 

2.6 

(2.6) 

2.1 

(2.4) 

2.1 

(2.9) 

1.9 

(1.8) 

Total 

100 

(100) 

100 

(100) 

100 

(100) 

100 

(100) 

* Numbers in parentheses represent Twelfth Periodical Report estimates. 

3-16 
P.30 

tion of new truck registrations by weight category were modified. As 

shown in Table 3-7 the estimates of the import and domestic LDT market 

shares in the post-1986 period were increased slightly while those of the 

heavy-duty vehicle classes were lowered. 

3.3.3 Vehicle Miles of Travel 

The trend in average annual miles traveled per automobile is a critical 

factor influencing highway fuel demand. However, there is a wide 

disparity in the data on changes in annual miles per vehicle. For 

example, data on total VMT and information on vehicle registrations 

obtained from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) show increases in 

average annual miles per car of 1.1 percent, 1.4 percent and 0.4 percent, 

respectively, for the time periods 1982-1983, 1983-1984 and 1984-1985. 

(25) In contrast, the annual survey of car ownership costs conducted by 

the Hertz Corporation shows the growth in annual miles per car declining 

from 3.5 percent in 1982-1983 to 3.2 percent in 1983-1984. (26) A third 

source of information is the panel survey of monthly travel and fuel 

purchases of American families conducted by NPD Research, Inc. This 

source shows a 1 percent increase in average annual miles traveled per 

family between 1982 and 1983 and a 2.2 percent growth between 1983 and 

1984. (27) Finally, over relatively long periods of time (e.g., 10-15 

years), data from the FHWA, Nationwide Personal Transportation Studies 

show that average annual VMT/car has stayed relatively flat. (28) 

With respect to trucks, available sources also show considerable variation in annual rates of change in VMT/vehicle over the past 15 years. 

For example, the 1972, 1977 and 1982 Truck Inventory and Use Surveys 

(TIUS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and the FHWA data show a high 

degree of stability in average annual miles per truck for LDTs and 

"single unit vehicles." FHWA data on "combination" trucks (tractor 

trailers) show yearly rates of growth in annual VMT ranging from 1 

3-17 
P.31 

percent to more than 3 percent over 5 year increments in the past two 

decades. 

Given this wide range in the estimates of historical travel growth rates 

by different data sources and the sharp short term fluctuations in travel 

growth rates (such as that indicated by the FHWA data series), it is 

difficult to project the future. For the purpose of this report, the 

growth in average annual VMT/vehicle between 1986 and 2000 for cars and 

light-duty trucks is assumed to be negligible. Based on our assessment 

of TIUS and FHWA data, the VMT/vehicle of medium-heavy and heavy-heavy 

trucks is assumed to grow at 2 percent/year and 1 percent/year, respec-) 

tively, between 1986 and 2000. 

3.3.4 Diesel Penetration 

Diesel penetration of all new cars has plunged from nearly 6 percent in 

1981 to under 0.4 percent in 1986. Nevertheless, the use of passenger 

car diesels will continue in a scenario in which: 1) gasoline prices 

rise slowly but remain below recent historical levels throughout the 

balance, and 2) diesel fuel prices remain higher than unleaded regular 

gasoline. Under this scenario, new domestic car diesel penetration will 

rise only gradually from 0.2 percent in 1986 to 0.6 percent by 1995 (see 

Table 3-8). 

Unlike the car market, diesels have been relatively more popular in light 

trucks. In 1983, for example, domestic LDT diesel penetration was 6.7 

percent versus 1.3 percent for domestic cars. However, as with automobiles, the continuation of low gasoline prices and unfavorable diesel > 

versus gasoline price differentials has reduced consumer demand for 

diesel LDTs and has caused manufacturers to postpone and/or cancel plans 

to expand the number of diesel models available. In the current report, 

3-18 
TABLE 3-8 

NEW VEHICLE DIESEL PENETRATION1* 

(Percent) 

•1 

r-* 

vo 

Vehicle Category 

Domestic Cars 

Imported Cars 

Domestic Light Trucks 

0-8,500 lbs GVW 

Imported Light Trucks 

0-8,500 lbs GVW 

Heavy-Duty Vehicles 

Over 8,500 lbs GVW 

1983 

1.4 

3.4 

6.7 

10.5 

34.7 

Actual 

1984 

1.1 

2.7 

2.2 

9.0 

40.2 

1985 

0.4 

2.2 

1.5 

1.7 

40.4 

(39.8) 

1988 

0.2 

(1.1) 

0.9 

(2.8) 

2.2 

(2.1) 

1.6 

(1.9) 

42.7 

(43.0) 

Forecast 

1990 1995 

0.3 0.6 

(1.3) (1.5) 

1.0 1.2 

(3.0) (4.0) 

2.5 2.5 

(2.3) (3.5) 

1.5 1.5 

(2.0) (4.5) 

43.4 45.9 

(45.2) (48.5) 

2000 

0.9 

(1.5) 

1.5 

(4.0) 

2.5 

(3.5) 

1.5 

(4.5) 

46.3 

(49.5) 

Numbers in parentheses represent Twelfth Periodical Report estimates. 
domestic LDT diesel penetration will rise from 1.9 percent in 1986 to 2.5 

percent in 1990 and remain constant thereafter. 

Import LDT diesel penetration also has plunged' sharply over the past 

year. In 1986, diesels captured 2 percent of the new import LDT market, 

down from 9 percent in 1984. As a result of the scaling back of diesel 

plans by import LDT manufacturers in light of the low growth in fuel 

prices, import LDT diesel penetration will continue to drift downward to 

1.5 percent by 1990 and remain constant thereafter. 

Due to the relatively high usage levels of heavy-duty vehicles, diesels 

are expected to continue to be highly cost-effective for this market 

segment even under a scenario of low fuel prices. Diesel penetration of 

the heavy-duty truck fleet is expected to reach 43.4 percent in 1990 and 

45.9 percent by 1995. 

3.3.5 EPA to On-Road Fuel Economy Shortfall 

There is a substantial difference between the fuel economy estimates 

published by the Environmental Protection Agency and fuel economy 

achieved on the road. Since the on-road value is almost always lower 

than the EPA estimate, this difference has been defined as shortfall. 

Historical experience has shown that it can range from 10 to 25 percent 

for an average model year. Therefore, the correct quantification of 

shortfall is extremely important for an accurate estimate of motor fuel 

consumption. 

This report relies on estimates of shortfall that were developed by the 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in support of a proposed rulemaking 

on fuel economy labeling. (29) As shown in Table 3-9, the shortfall 

estimates employ a gallon-per-mile (gpm) ratio functional form to relate 

EPA to on-road fuel economy. The relations are specified by model year 

3-20 
P.34 

Model 

Year 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1980 

1981 

1982 

1983 

1984 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1980 

1981 

1982 

1983 

1984 

SOURCE: 

* OR -

EPA -

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

OR 

TABLE 3-

REVISED ESTIMATES OF FUEL 

Passenger Cars 

All Gasoline-Fueled 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.066 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.070 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.070 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.062 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.059 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.034 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.027 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.013 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.009 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.001 

All Diesel-Fueled 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.894 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.909 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.858 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.884 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.919 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.894 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.908 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.912 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.910 

- EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.878 

Reference No. 29. 

On-road fuel economy. 

EPA-rated fuel economy. 

3-21 

9 

ECONOMY 

i 

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

OR -

-

SHORTFALL* 

Liifht Trucks 

M l Gasoline-Fueled 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.116 

EPA/0.0059EPA +1.120 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.120 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.112 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.109 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.084 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.077 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.063 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.059 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 1.051 

All Diesel-Fueled 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.944 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.959 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.908 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.934 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.969 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.944 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.958 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.962 

EPA/0.0059EPA +0.960 

EPA/0.0059EPA + 0.928 
and fuel system (gasoline versus diesel).* Future (post-1984) model year 

vehicles are assumed to have shortfall characteristics that are identical 

to those of the 1984 model year relationship. 

The shortfall relations provided by EPA were specific to automobiles. 

Based on work performed by DOE and others, the average gpm ratio 

shortfall for cars has been measured at 1.18. The average gpm ratio** 

shortfall for light trucks of an equivalent model year has been measured 

at 1.22. (30,31) Therefore, the EPA shortfall relations for automobiles 

were adjusted by adding 0.05 to the intercept term (see Table 3-9) in 

order to arrive at on-road fuel economy estimates for light-duty trucks. 

3.3.6 Other Factors 

Other factors which influence trends in the mix and level of motor 

gasoline consumption include: 1) the frequency of fuel switching by 

consumers, 2) changes in vehicle fuel economy as a function of vehicle 

age, 3) trends in off-highway gasoline demand, and 4) the introduction 

and use of alcohol fuels. The discussion which follows briefly 

summarizes the input data on these factors. 

3.3.6.1 Fuel Switching 

As part of an effort to improve the accuracy of the MFC model in 

forecasting leaded versus unleaded gasoline, data on trends in passenger 

** 

Recent analysis of these shortfall relations suggest that they may 

be significantly overstating the average on-road fuel economy of 

passenger cars currently in-use. This issue is currently being 

investigated and revised shortfall relations will be implemented in 

the next Periodical Report on the MFC model. 

gpm ratio - ratio of on-road gallons/mile to EPA-measured gallons/mile. 

3-22 
car and truck fuel switching by consumers were incorporated into the MFC 

model.* Fuel switching is a generic term which includes the following: 

• Misfuelers are catalyst-equipped vehicles required by the EPA 

to be fueled with unleaded gasoline which are operated entirely 

or occasionally on leaded gasoline. The misfueling rate is the 

percentage of the total gallons consumed by these vehicles that 

is leaded fuel. Misfueling as used in this report is therefore 

a gasoline volume-based rate and not an incidence-based rate. 

(Incidence refers to the percentage of unleaded certified 

vehicles which use leaded gasoline at some point during the 

calendar year.)** 

• Discretionary switchers are non-catalyst equipped vehicles 

normally operated on leaded fuel which are operated entirely Q_ 

occasionally on unleaded gasoline. The discretionary switching 

rate is the percentage of total gallons consumed by these 

vehicles which is unleaded fuel. This form of fuel switching 

does not have deleterious emissions impacts since the vehicles' 

emission control systems are designed for fuels containing 

lead. 

The data on fuel switching were originally derived from an analysis for 

DOE of two large survey data bases that contained diary records of 

consumer fuel purchases and travel behavior for the time period 1978 

through 1981. (32) This analysis showed a growth in misfueling that was 

linked primarily to the aging of the fleet of catalyst-equipped vehicles, 

This study was subsequently updated for EPA with estimates of fuel 

switching derived from 1982 diary records of consumer fuel purchase and 

travel behavior. (33)*** 

No fuel switching was assumed for heavy-duty trucks over 14,000 

lbs GVW. These vehicles are not catalyst-equipped and are therefore 

not required to use unleaded gasoline. 

See Reference Nos. 33 and 40 for a more complete discussion of 

vehicle "incidence" versus "volume"-based fuel switching. 

For a more detailed summary of the derivation of the fuel switching 

rates, the reader should consult Reference No. 33. 

3-23 
P.37 

The data used in the MFC model to assess the impact of fuel switching on 

leaded and unleaded gasoline demand are shown in Table 3-10. The 

discretionary switching rates are model year specific and are held 

constant from 1975 to 2000. (The reader should note that this assumption 

has only marginal impact on the leaded versus unleaded gasoline split 

since almost all post-1975 passenger cars are catalyst-equipped.) The 

misfueling rates are vintage dependent, but are held constant for 

vehicles older than 8 years, since data are available on only eight 

vintages of catalyst-equipped vehicles. Furthermore, the projections are 

the same for cars and trucks under 14,000 lbs GVW since the data are not 

sufficient to develop separate estimates of misfueling by vehicle 

category and vintage. 

3.3.6.2 AMPD/Odometer Effect 

In the development of fuel demand forecasts it is important to account 

for those factors which influence fuel economy levels over the life of a 

vehicle. Engineering and statistical analyses have demonstrated that 

fuel economy typically increases during the interval between the 

initiation of vehicle operation under cold start conditions and the 

attainment of normal operating temperatures. The increase is a function 

of both ambient temperature and the distance traveled (i.e., average 

miles per day or AMPD). The analyses also have shown that the sensitivity of fuel economy to average daily travel decreases at higher 

average AMPD's and increases with vehicle age. 

Studies by the EPA have demonstrated the improvement in fuel economy with 

increasing odometer mileage. This effect is associated with the progressive reduction of internal engine/drivetrain friction which usually 

occurs during the "breaking-in" period of a new model. 

To incorporate these effects into the MFC model, equations which relate 

in-use fuel economy to odometer mileage and AMPD were drawn from recent 

3-24 
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EPA and DOE studies. These equations were combined with MFC model input 

data on annual miles/car by vintage and were used to generate an agebased index of the sensitivity of in-use fuel economy to both increasing 

odometer and changes in AMPD. (34) As shown in Table 3-11, these two 

effects reduce the in-use fuel economy of a 10-year old vehicle by more 

than 8 percent relative to its fuel economy when new. This relationship 

is more fully discussed in Reference No. 35. 

3.3.6.3 Off-Highway Gasoline 

To facilitate an analysis of the total leaded gasoline market and to 

enable users to compare projections of total gasoline' demand, an offhighway gasoline component was incorporated into the MFC model 

structure. The methodology for estimating future trends in off-highway 

gasoline demand was limited by the fact that available sources of 

historical data were few in number and often provided estimates which 

were inconsistent and/or incomplete.** For the purpose of this analysis, 

historical estimates of off-highway gasoline consumption were derived 

from the annual editions of Highway Statistics published by the U.S. 

Federal Highway Administration. (36) 

Table 3-12 shows historical trends in off-highway gasoline consumption 

from 1970 to 1985 for four categories of off-highway applications: 

agriculture, industrial/commercial, construction, and marine/recrea-

** 

Initial consideration also was given to the inclusion of an 

off-highway diesel component in the MFC model. However, given the 

level of resources that would have been required to do a detailed 

analysis of an area in which the available data were not wholly 

adequate nor consistent, that effort was ultimately judged to be 

beyond the scope and resources of the current study. 

See Reference Nos. 37 and 38 for a description of data sources and 

problems with available estimates of off-highway gasoline usage. 

3-26 
P.40 

"1 

TABLE 3-11 

PASSENGER CAR AMPD/ODOMETER FACTOR 

FOR IN-USE FUEL ECONOMY 

Age 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

AMPD 

Factor 

1.000 

0.982 

0.965 

0.953 

0.946 

0.941 

0.915 

0.922 

0.899 

0.884 

0.880 

0.855 

0.841 

0.842 

0.859 

0.860 

0.885 

0.775 

0.753 

0.745 

Odometer 

Factor 

1.013 

1.033 

1.041 

1.047 

1.051 

1.054 

1.056 

1.058 

1.060 

1.062 

1.063 

1.064 

1.065 

1.066 

1.067 

1.068 

1.069 

1.069 

1.070 

1.070 

Combined AMPD/ODO 

Factor* 

1.013 

1.014 

1.005 

0.997 

0.994 

0.992 

0.967 

0.976 

0.954 

0.939 

0.935 

0.918 

0.917 

0.910 

0.898 

0.896 

0.862 

0.829 

0.805 

0.800 

*The "combined" AMPD/ODOM factor is the product of the individual AMPD 

and odometer factors by vehicle age. The combined values for 13+ year 

old vehicles have been "smoothed" to represent a gradual deceleration 

in the decline in fuel economy with increasing age. 

3-27 
P.41 

tional/other. These categories correspond to those used by the Federal 

Highway Administration with one exception. Marine/recreational/other 

also incudes gasoline consumed by publicly owned vehicles and motorcycles. Total off-highway gasoline has fluctuated between 3 and 4 

billion gallons/year in the 1970-1985 time period. The shares of total 

off-highway gasoline attributable to different applications also have 

shifted over time due largely to variation in the rates of technology 

penetration by sector. For example, the increasing dieselization of 

agricultural machinery has been a primary factor behind the decline in 

agricultural share of total off-highway gasoline consumption from 44 

percent in 1970 to 28 percent in 1985. To account for the differences in 

technology mix and activity levels in the various off-highway sectors, 

estimates of the future annual growth (decline) in gasoline use were 

developed for each of the four categories shown in Table 3-12. 

Data on the historical leaded share of off-highway gasoline demand for 

each of the four categories could not be located in the literature. 

Through conversations with trade associations and manufacturers, and 

analysis of testimony presented at the recent EPA hearings on lead 

phasedown, information was obtained on the lead lubricity requirements of 

off-highway farm equipment, construction machinery, recreational boats, 

and motorcycles. (39) Using these data and estimates of the mix of 

technologies and distribution of engines by size and vintage (when available), leaded gasoline shares were "guesstimated" for each sector. These 

estimates are also shown in Table 3-12. 

3.3.6.4 Neat Methanol and Alcohol/Gasoline Blends 

Alcohols have recently come under increasing scrutiny as petroleum 

refiners are seeking new low-cost additives to replace lead as an octane 

booster for gasoline. Since the advent of the more stringent gasoline 

lead phasedown schedules promulgated by EPA and effective July 1, 1985, 

3-28 
TABLE 3-12 

Year 

1970 

1971 

1972 

1973 

1974 

1975 

1976 

1977 

1978 

1979 

1980 

1981 

1982 

1983 

1984 

1985 

1986 

1987 

1988 

1989 

1990 

1991 

1992 

1993 

1994 

1995 

1996 

1997 

1998 

1999 

2000 

Agriculture 

Lead 

Total 

1.932 

1.865 

1.698 

1.750 

1.606 

1.565 

1.472 

1.360 

1.229 

1.152 

1.059 

1.010 

0.912 

0.807 

1.567 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

1.081 

Fraction 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

OFF -HIGHWAY 

(billion 

Industrial/ 

Commercial 

T9taV 

0.308 

0.294 

0.312 

0.270 

0.209 

0.179 

0.178 

0.182 

0.175 

0.133 

0.188 

0.171 

0.167 

0.856 

0.860 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

0.453 

Lead 

GASOLINE USE 

gallons) 

Construction 

Fraction Total 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

0.149 

0.127 

0.115 

0.103 

0.111 

0.090 

0.103 

0.085 

0.075 

0.088 

0.149 

0.133 

0.110 

0.282 

0.903 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

0.051 

Lead 

Fraction 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

Marine/ 

Recreational 

Total 

1.436 

1.627 

1.741 

1.815 

1.804 

1.890 

1.993 

2.038 

2.214 

2.251 

2.295 

1.960 

2.070 

1.033 

1.140 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

2.280 

Lead 

Fraction 

1.00 

1,00 

1.00 

1.00 

1.00 

0.96 

0.92 

0.88 

0.84 

0.79 

0.75 

0.71 

0.67 

0.65 

0.63 

0.62 

0.60 

0.58 

0.57 

0.56 

0.55 

0.55 

0.55 

0.55 

0.55 

0.55 

0.55 

0.55 

0.55 

0.55 

0.55 

SOURCE: Historical (pre-1986) data on total off-highway gasoline by subsector 

drawn from Reference No. 36. Post-1985 total gasoline consumption by subsector is 

assumed to remain constant at 1985 levels. 

3-29 
alcohol/gasoline blends have been the subject of increasing interest. In 

addition, neat-methanol fueled vehicles also have been a recent focus of 

interest as a means to dramatically improve the Corporate Average Fuel 

Economy (CAFE) of the petroleum-fueled portion of the new car fleets 

produced by the automobile manufacturers. (41) 

As part of an effort to evaluate trends in the use of transportation 

alcohol fuels, a neat methanol and an alcohol/gasoline blend component 

has been added to the model. The neat methanol portion has been 

structured in a manner identical to that used to estimate future trends 

in the fuel use, efficiency, travel, and stock of gasoline and diesel 

vehicles (see Appendix A). However, for the purpose of this periodical 

report, neat methanol vehicles are assumed to not penetrate the market in 

any measurable quantity prior to the year 2000. Problems relating to 

materials compatibility, neat methanol automotive technology, and the 

development of neat methanol fuel distribution systems are assumed not to 

be solved prior to the end of the century. 

Ethanol and methanol will, nevertheless, see increasing use as components 

of leaded and unleaded gasoline blends. The projections of ethanol and 

methanol as a percent of leaded and unleaded gasoline are presented in 

Tables 3-13 and 3-14. Note that in each of these tables, column #5 is 

the product of column #1 and column #3; column #6 is the product of 

column #2 and column #4. 

Ethanol 

• 1980-1984 ethanol/gasoline blend shares of leaded and unleaded 

gasoline are derived from FHWA figures on "monthly gasohol 

reported by states." The blend shares of leaded and unleaded 

gasoline are assumed to be equal as there are no historical 

data to disaggregate the two blended fuel types. (36) 

3-30 
P.44 

3-13 TABLE 

GASOLINE LEADED 

g b. 

O 

Cfl Cd 2r 

VI AND METHANO 

O Cd 

Wl 

e 4> 

o Wl 

c gures (All fi 

NO 

tt i n 

tt «* tt en 

tt 

4*N 

tt 

l -l 

tt 

a 

efl 

r -l 

0 

e CO Meth 

a 

« 

I - I 1 Ethano 

o 

c eo JS Met nol <0 Eth soline <o CJ 

< M 

0 

U 

-dt 

o 

e -o 4) 

U f a Per 

o 4J 

c of a Perce Wl 

c a> Perc nt of 4) Perc 

<4-l 

o CO Wl CO 

l-\ l x 

o 

e etha 

X soline CO CJ 

CO *o Blen re of CO 

X 

\ O T Ethanol Blend 

CO 4) Unl 

4) 

C 

i - l Gaso 

* 

4) •o e Unlea 

c 

«H r H 

o Gas line 

o Gas soline CO CJ •o 4) •o nlea => •o 4) •o 

4> 

c 

- H Gasol •o 

c 4) 

i - l CQ 

e 4) 

i - l C Q 

U 0) 

Ji 

U 

< X 

u 4) 

<0 X 4) Unl Wl CO 

X 

u 

« 4) 

o 

o 

o i n 0.0 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

r-v • 3 

o 

r-l 0 0 

CJN 

O 

o 

o CN 0.1 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o CM 

l -l 

l -l 0 0 ON 

o 

o 

o 

o 0.2 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o 

m O N 

l -l CM CO ON 

l-l 

o 

o 

o 0.4 

o 

o 

irt 

o 

o 

o CN 

o r v Ov en en eo 

•3v 

O l 

o 

o 

o 0.5 

o 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o «* 

o 

o 

o 

m .* oo 

•3V 

en 

O 

o en 0.6 

o 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o vo 

o 

o en NO 

m eo OV 

m 

o 

o ve 0.7 

o 

o 

m 

O 

o 

o 

o 

l -l 

o NO 

r-» vo oo o> 

m 

I - H 

O 

o 0.9 

o 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o 

o cn 

o 

o ON r- 0 0 ON 

m <s 

o en 

o 

o 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o 

o 

m 

o en 

O eo 0 0 ON 

oo en 

o 

r-» 

• - I 

o 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o m p v 

o r-

• - I 

•*> 0 0 Ov 

o m 

o 

o en 

© 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o l-l 

• o 

o en 

o Ov Ov 

O r» 

o «* en 

o 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o 

o •* l-l 

o «tf en 

I - I Ov ON 

O ON 

o eo en 

o 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o 

o oo 

l -l 

o 0 0 en ex ON ON 

o 

r -l CM «* 

o 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o 

o CM CN 

o CNl «* en ON ON 

o en 

• - I VO 

-ao 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o 

o NO CM 

o vO 

-tf «a ON ON 

o m 

i-H 

O 

m 

O 

o 

m 

o 

o 

o 

o 

o en 

O 

O 

m 

m ON ON 

t n 

tt 

C g. 

3 

I - I 

o 

X olumn #1) CJ 

s—/ 

I 

m 

tt 

C 

4-H 

0 CJ 

* 

.4-N 

tt 

c E 

3 

i—i 

0 * j 

X olumn #2) CJ 

4 W * olumn #6 — CJ 

* 

3-31 
TABLE 3-14 

ETHANOL AND METHANOL SHARES OF LEADED GASOLINE 

(All figures in percent) 

ot 

ro 

Year 

1980 

1981 

1982 

1983 

1984 

1985 

1986 

1987 

1988 

1989 

1990 

1991 

1992 

1993 

1994 

1995 

#1 

Ethanol/Gasoline 

Blend Share of 

Unleaded 

Market 

0.47 

1.20 

1.95 

3.97 

5.00 

7.00 

9.00 

11.00 

13.00 

14.00 

15.00 

16.00 

17.00 

18.00 

19.00 

20.00 

#2 

Methanol/Gasoline 

Blend Share of 

Unleaded Gasoline 

Market 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

5.00 

11.00 

17.00 

24.00 

30.00 

34.00 

38.00 

42.00 

46.00 

50.00 

#3 

Ethanol 

Percent of 

Gasoline 

Blend 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

20.0 

18.0 

16.0 

13.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

#4 

Methanol 

Percent of 

Gasoline 

Blend 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

25.0 

20.0 

18.0 

15.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

10.0 

#5 

Ethanol as 

a Percent of 

Unleaded 

Gasoline* 

0.05 

0.12 

0.20 

0.40 

0.50 

0.70 

1.80 

1.98 

2.08 

1.82 

1.50 

1.60 

1.70 

1.80 

1.90 

2.00 

#6 

Methanol aa 

a Percent of 

Unleaded 

Gasoline 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

1.25 

2.20 

3.06 

3.60 

3.00 

3.40 

3.80 

4.20 

4.60 

5.00 

Column #5 - (Column #1) x (Column #3) 

** Column #6 - (Column #2) x (Column #4) 
P.46 

The ethanol/gasoline blend share of the unleaded gasoline 

market is assumed to rise at historical rates of growth to 13 

percent by 1990 as it is used increasingly as an octanebooster and continues to enjoy tax breaks. After 1990, we 

assume tax breaks for ethanol begin to disappear and growth in 

market share drops as technical problems (i.e., fuel system 

corrosion) with the more price competitive methanol/gasoline 

blends are solved. The ethanol/gasoline blend share of 

unleaded reaches 15 percent by 1995. 

The ethanol/gasoline blend share of the leaded gasoline market 

is assumed to rise at a slightly higher rate than that of 

ethanol/unleaded due to the effect of the EPA lead phasedown 

regulations. By 1990 we assume the ethanol/gasoline blend 

share of the leaded gasoline market will reach 15 percent. As 

with the unleaded market, the growth in ethanol/leaded blend 

penetration will slow in the 1990s due to the increased 

competitiveness of methanol blends, the solving of fuel system 

compatibility problems associated with the latter, and the 

phasing out of ethanol tax breaks. 

The ethanol/gasoline blend mixture is assumed to remain 

constant throughout the forecast period at the current level of 

10 percent ethanol and 90 percent gasoline for both leaded and 

unleaded grades. For leaded gasoline grades, the amount of 

ethanol per gallon of gasoline will rise rapidly from 10 

percent to 20 percent in the short term (1985-1986) as refiners 

rush to substitute alcohol for lead in the wake of the recent 

EPA lead phasedown regulations. In the long-run, the 

increasing use of ethanol per gallon of leaded gasoline will be 

limited by concerns regarding the effect of alcohol on fuel 

volatility and evaporative emissions. Limits on the use of 

alcohol in order to control gasoline volatility could cause the 

ethanol/gasoline blend mixture to drop back to about 10 percent 

by 1990. 

Methanol 

In 1984 approximately 260 million gallons of methanol blended 

gasoline were sold in comparison with 5.7 billion gallons of 

ethanol blended gasoline. (42) According to industry 

statistics, the methanol/gasoline blend share of the unleaded 

market was less than 0.5 percent in 1984. This share is 

assumed to rise to 10 percent in 1990 as the favored tax 

treatment for ethanol begins to disappear and auto makers 

continue to resolve fuel system compatibility problems. After 

3-33 
P.47 

1990 methanol/gasoline blends will rise rapidly to capture 50 

percent of the unleaded market by 1995 as technological 

problems with methanol use and distribution are solved and the 

price competitiveness vis-a-vis ethanol increases. 

In the leaded market, the methanol/gasoline blends share is 

assumed- to rise rapidly from near zero percent in 1985 to 30 

percent in 1990 and 30 percent by 1995 as methanol is used 

increasingly as an octane substitute. 

The percentage of methanol used in methanol/unleaded gasoline 

blends is assumed to remain constant at 5 percent throughout 

the forecast period. 

Based on conversations with government officials and a review 

of industry statistics, it appears that the percentage of 

methanol used in methanol/leaded gasoline blends could soar to 

as much as 25 percent in the near term as the refiners rush to 

substitute alcohol for lead in order to maintain octane levels 

in the wake of the EPA lead phasedown regulations. However, as 

with ethanol, increasing concern about the effect of alcohol on 

fuel volatility will limit growth in the methanol/leaded 

gasoline blend mixture. The promulgation of EPA regulations 

concerning fuel volatility could cause the methanol/leaded 

gasoline blend mixture percentage to settle back down in the 

range of 10 percent by 1990. 

3-34 
P.48 

4. USB OF THE MODEL 

During the past year, the MFC model was used to support DOE analyses of: 

1) the impact of reduced passenger car and LDT on fuel consumption; and 

2) the effect of lower oil prices on U.S. energy consumption. This 

section briefly summarizes these two activities. 

4.1 FUEL CON-SUMPTION IMPACTS OF REVISED PROJECTIONS OF THE PASSENGER CAR 

AND LIGHT DUTY TRUCK FUEL ECONOMY CAPABILITIES OF U.S. MANUFACTURERS 

The fuel economy capabilities of U.S. manufacturers were recently 

reexamined to support the preparation of DOE comments on DOT rulemakings 

concerning CAFE standards for automobiles and light-duty trucks (21). 

Manufacturer submissions to the DOT regarding CAFE and reports published 

in the trade literature were used to perform a detailed analysis of 

changes in manufacturer product plans. The results of this assessment 

were incorporated into the passenger car and light-duty truck Technology 

Cost Segment Models (TCSM) and were used to adjust the fuel economy 

forecasts by manufacturers, size/market class, and body/platform type. 

The forecasts also were adjusted for the significant increase in passenger car and light truck performance that has occurred in the last two 

years. In addition, the projections of market share by manufacturer and 

size/market class (used to aggregate the fuel economy estimates) were 

revised to incorporate anticipated impacts of: 1) new model offerings, 

2) increased competition in the small car segment, and 3) lower fuel 

price trajectories. 

The analysis of import passenger car and LDT fuel economy trends was more 

approximate as a detailed technology-cost segment model for this category 

has not been developed. The revisions in the passenger car average mpg 

4-1 
P.49 

of the luxury segment and a decline through 1990 in the fuel economy of 

small and luxury imports. The decline is attributable to performance 

increases, decreased diesel penetration of luxury imports, and the 

proliferation of "low technology" small cars from Korea, Taiwan, etc. 

Similarly, the projected decline through 1990 in import LDT mpg is based 

on decreased diesel penetration, increased performance (through expanded 

use of V-6 engines), and an increasing number of new import model 

offerings in the van segment. 

The passenger car and light-duty truck fuel economy projections were 

shown earlier in Table 3-1 and are not repeated here. Table 4-1 shows 

the fuel consumption impacts of the revised projections (relative to 

those used in the Twelfth Periodical Report). In 1995 the reduced fuel 

economy trajectories produce a 320,000 barrel/day increase in total fuel 

use. About 59 percent (190,000 bbl/day) of the total is attributable to 

cars and 41 percent (130,000 bbl/day) is due to lower LDT fuel economy. 

4.2 ANALYSIS OF THE PROJECTED IMPACT OF LOWER OIL PRICES ON U.S. 

ENERGY CONSERVATION 

The Motor Fuel Consumption model was recently used in a study for the 

U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis, which 

examined the potential impact of lower oil prices on energy conservation 

in the U.S. (43) Specifically, the MFC model was used to provide 

projections of total transportation sector energy efficiency and energy 

use in 1995 under low and high world oil price scenarios. The trend in 

total transportation energy efficiency in each of the two scenarios was 

then disaggregated to show the relative contributions of four major 

factors: 1) the effects of fuel prices on travel; 2) shifts in the mix 

of motor vehicles in use (automobiles, light trucks, and heavy-duty 

vehicles); 3) changes in efficiency due solely to stock turnover; and 4) 

improvements in the technological efficiency of new vehicles. 

4-2 
TABLE 4-1 

INCREMENTAL FUEL CONSUMPTION IMPACTS OF CHANGES IN 

PROJECTED CORPORATE AVERAGE FUEL ECONOMY 

(thousands of barrels/day) 

Passenger Light-duty 

Year Cars Trucks Total 

1986 0 10 10 

1988 50 40 90 

1990 90 60 150 

1995 190 130 320 

4-3 
P.51 

Table 4-2 shows the relative contribution of each of these four factors 

to total 1995 transportation energy savings in low and high world oil 

price scenarios. The study showed stock turnover and improvements in new 

vehicle technological efficiency to be the largest contributors to 

transportation fuel savings. 

For further details, the reader is referred to Reference Number 43. 

4-4 
P.52 

TABLE 4-2 

at 

COMPONENTS OF TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSERVATION 

FROM FROZEN EUI BASELINE 

(Quads) 

High Price c^se 

New Vehicle MPG 2.20 

Stock Turnover 2.67 

Mix Shift -0.24 

Low Price Case 

1.18 

2.80 

-0.11 

TOTAL 4.6 3 3.4 6 

4-5 
1. 

2. 

3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

10. 

I 

<-* 

REFERENCES 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Light-Duty Vehicle 

Fuel Consumption Model: First Quarterly Report," prepared for the 

U.S. Department of Energy, June 12, 1980. 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Light-Duty Vehicle 

Fuel Consumption Model: Second Quarterly Report," prepared for the 

U.S. Department of Energy, September 20, 1980. 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Light-Duty Vehicle 

Fuel Consumption Model: Addendum to the Second Quarterly Report," 

prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, November 5, 1980. 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Third Quarterly Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Department of Energy, January 27, 1981. 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Addendum to the Third Quarterly Report," prepared for 

the U.S. Department of Energy, March 15, 1981. 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Fourth Quarterly Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Department of Energy, July 1, 1981. 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Fifth Quarterly Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Department of Energy, November 30, 1981. 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Sixth Quarterly Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Department of Energy, January 30, 1982. 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Seventh Quarterly Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Department of Energy, April 15, 1982. 

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Eighth Quarterly Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Department of Energy, July 1, 1982. 

R-l 
P.54 

11. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Ninth Quarterly Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Department of Energy, February 1983. 

12. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Tenth Quarterly Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Department of Energy, November 1983. 

13. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Motor Fuel Consumption 

Model: Eleventh Periodical Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency, November 7, 1984. 

14. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "The Highway Fuel Consumption Model: Twelfth Periodical Report," prepared for the U.S. 

Department of Energy; November 1985. 

15. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Analyses of Trends in 

Passenger Car Retirements vs. New Car Registrations," prepared for 

the U.S. Department of Energy, January 1982. 

16. R.M. Heavenrich, et al, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Light 

Duty Automotive Trends Through 1986," Society of Automotive 

Engineers, Paper No. 860366, February 1986. 

17. U.S. Depatment of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration, "Summary of Fuel Economy Performance," April 7, 

1986. 

18. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Revised Projections of 

Fuel Economy and Technology For Highway Vehicles," prepared for the 

U.S. Department of Energy, July 15, 1983. 

19. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Analysis of Current and 

Projected Capabilities of Domestic Automobile Manufacturers to 

Improve Their Corporate Average Fuel Economy," prepared for U.S. 

Department of Energy, September 6, 1985. 

20. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1986. 

February 1987. 

21. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Forecasts of Light Duty 

Truck CAFE: 1985-1995," prepared for Martin Marietta Energy Systems, 

April 1987. 

R-2 
22. Letter from Karl Hellman, Chief, Control Technology and Applications 

Branch, Office of Air, Noise and Radiation, U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency, to Mr. Barry McNutt, U.S. Department of Energy, 

August 14, 1984. 

23. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Historical and Projected 

Emissions Conversion Factor and Fuel Economy for Heavy-Duty Trucks: 

1962-2002," prepared for the Motor Vehicle Manufacturer's Association, December 1983. 

24. Telephone conversation with Ms. Peggy Podolak, U. S. Department of 

Energy, April 15, 1987. 

25. U.S. Federal Highway Administration, "Annual Vehicle Miles of Travel 

and Related Data - 1984," table VM-1, preliminary, October 1985. 

26. Hertz Corporation, "1984 U.S. Vehicle Spending Study," August 12, 

1985. 

27. NPD Research, Inc., "Vehicle Usage of American Families," 

December 1983, and personal communication with Carol Suhr, 

October 1985. 

28. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 

1983-1984 Nationwide Personal Transportation Study, Vol. 1, August 

1986. 

29. Letter from Karl Hellman, Chief, Control Technology and Applications 

Branch, Office of Air, Noise and Radiation, U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency, to Barry McNutt, U.S. Department of Energy, 

August 28, 1984. 

30. B. McNutt et al, "Comparison of EPA and On-Road Fuel Economy -

Analysis Approaches, Trends and Impacts," Society of Automotive 

Engineers, Paper No. 820788, June 1982. 

31. Letter from Jan W. Mares, U.S. Department of Energy, to 

Richard Wilson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, September 2, 

1983, re: DOE comments on EPA proposed revision to improve fuel 

economy ratings. (See Enclosure 1: "Supplemental Analysis 

Supporting DOE Comments on EPA Proposed Rulemaking.") EPA Central 

Docket Section, Docket No. A-80-32. 

32. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Assessment of Current and 

Projected Trends in Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Switching," prepared for 

the U.S. Department of Energy, June 1982. 

R-3 
P.56 

33. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Assessment of Current and 

Projected Trends in Light-Duty Vehicle and Truck Fuel Switching," 

prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 

September 1984. 

34. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., "Modifications of the 

Highway Fuel Consumption Model," prepared for the U.S. Department of 

Energy, August 30, 1982. 

35. R. Crawford, Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., and 

S. Kaufman, Falcon Research and Development, "Seasonal and Regional 

MPG as Influenced By Environmental Conditions and Travel Patterns," 

Society of Automotive Engineers, Paper No. 830546. 

36. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 

Highway Statistics, published annually. 

37. G. Kulp, et al, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Regional Analyses of 

Highway Energy Use, prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, 

April 1980. 

38. R.W. McGill and M.C. Holcomb, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 

"Non-Residential Energy End-Use Study," (draft), prepared for the 

Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, 

June 1984. 

39. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Lead Phasedown Hearing, 

Arlington, Virginia, August 30-31, 1984. Testimony contained in EPA 

Rulemaking Docket No. EN-84-05. 

40. B. McNutt et al, "Patterns of Vehicle Misfueling in 1981 and 1982: 

Where, When, What Vehicles and How Often," Society of Automotive 

Engineers, Paper No. 841345, October 9, 1984. 

41. "Methanol Viewed as CAFE Bonus," Automotive News. May 27, 1985. 

42. Information Resources Inc., Alcohol Outlook. September 1985. 

43. Applied Energy Services, Inc. and Energy and Environmental Analysis, 

Inc., "The Projected Impact of Lower Oil Prices on U.S. Energy 

Conservation," prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, May 13, 

1987. 

R-4 
P.57 

APPENDIX A 

MOTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION MODEL 

STRUCTURE AND METHODOLOGY 

A-1 
P.58 

APPENDIX A 

MOTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION MODEL 

STRUCTURE AND METHODOLOGY 

MODEL STRUCTURE 

The Motor Fuel Consumption Model estimates annual fuel demand for 1975 

through 2000 by calculating two major parameters: annual vehicle miles 

of travel (VMT) and average on-road fleet fuel economy. The model 

computes total VMT and fleet mpg through the use of historical data and 

future estimates for the following variables: 

• The annual new vehicle registrations 

• The survival rate of new vehicles, which reflects their 

retirement over time 

• The annual VMT per vintage year, which captures the effect of 

decreasing VMT per vehicle with age 

• Annual percentage change in average yearly VMT per vehicle 

which accounts for the influence of shifting economic and 

demographic conditions on trends in travel behavior 

• The new vehicle average fuel economies as determined through 

the EPA test procedures 

• An on-road mpg discount factor, which accounts for in-use 

driving conditions and reduces actual fuel economy below the 

EPA test value* 

• A vintage dependent mpg discount factor, which accounts for 

the influence of increasing odometer (and changes in average 

daily travel with increasing vehicle age) on fuel economy 

The model is designed so that data inputs can vary by vehicle categories. 

These categories are: 

*EPA has no standardized fuel economy measurement procedures for trucks 

greater than 8,500 lbs GVW. Therefore, all fuel economy values used in 

the model for trucks over 8,500 lbs GVW are on-road values. 

A-2 
P.59 

• Domestic passenger autos 

e Import passenger autos 

• Domestic light-duty trucks, 0-8,500 lbs GVW 

• Import light-duty trucks, 0-8,500 lbs GVW ^ v 

• Light-heavy-duty vehicles, 8,500-14,000 lbs GVW -- 0 

• Medium-heavy-duty vehicles, 14,000-50,000 lbs GVW 4* ; .; 

• Heavy-heavy-duty vehicles, over 50,000 lbs GVW £(*• "t 

Since some vehicles operate for up to 30 years (as determined by the 

survival rate), data from 1946 to the present are required to project 

the size and composition of the vehicle fleet and compute the annual 

VMT, fleet fuel economy, and fuel consumption. 

Annual highway fuel consumption is calculated for the following fuel 

types: diesel fuel, leaded gasoline, unleaded gasoline, neat methanol 

and the volumes of ethanol and methanol blended with gasoline. This 

disaggregation assumes new vehicle diesel and neat methanol penetration 

rates which vary by vehicle category and year. The leaded/unleaded 

breakout is obtained from data on the past and future ration of gasoline 

engines using leaded fuel to total new gasoline engine registration. 

The estimates of ethanol and methanol blend volumes are derived from 

data on: 1) the average alcohol blend percent of leaded and unleaded 

gasolines containing alcohol, and 2) the shares of these blends of the 

leaded and unleaded markets. 

The model also computes annual off-highway leaded and unleaded gasoline. 

This calculation is based on historical (1970-1982) data on 

leaded/unleaded gasoline usage in four sectors (agriculture, construction, industrial/commercial, marine/recreational/other) and user supplied 

annual growth rates. 

A-3 
P.60 

The model's output includes for each year and vehicle class: 

e Average on-road new vehicle fuel economy 

e New vehicle registrations with: 

• spark ignition engines 

- diesel engines 

e Average on-road fleet fuel economy 

e Fleet vehicle registrations with: 

• spark ignition engines 

diesel engines 

- neat methanol 

• Total VMT 

e Highway fuel consumption disaggregated by: 

diesel fuel 

leaded gasoline 

unleaded gasoline 

• neat methanol 

- blend methanol 

blend ethanol 

The output also includes total off-highway gasoline by year disaggregated 

by leaded and unleaded. 

METHODOLOGY 

This section briefly describes the sequence of basic calculations used 

to derive annual fleet fuel consumption estimates. These estimates are 

derived through mathematical computations involving: 

a The age distribution of the vehicle fleet in a given year 

e The fuel economy characteristics of that fleet 

• The travel characteristics of the in-use fleet, which vary by 

the age of the vehicles in the fleet 

A-4 
P.61 

The model's calculations of the total stock of vehicles must account for 

each year's new purchases in addition to resultant fleet turnover. The 

procedure used to derive the age distribution of the vehicle fleet: 

• Takes new registrations for the 30 years preceding the year of 

the analysis; and 

• Applies a marginal survival rate which reflects past retirement 

patterns of vehicles as they age from one year to the next. 

The survival rate is based on vehicle age data for a single historical 

period and does not take into account changes in fleet composition 

which may occur over time. Separate survival rates are utilized for 

passenger automobiles, light-duty trucks, and heavy-duty vehicles. 

The mpg performance of the stock is directly related to the fuel economy 

and age distribution of the vehicles in use. The model uses fuel economy 

information for each vintage year to determine the average mpg for the 

individual categories in the fleet. 

Travel characteristics of the fleet are directly related to the age 

distribution of vehicles and the VMT associated with the age of the 

vehicle. Travel characteristics are derived by: 

• Taking annual VMT per vehicle which varies by age 

• Applying it to the stock of in-use vehicles to produce total 

VMT for the fleet distributed by age 

• Adjusting the total to account for year-to-year shifts in 

annual VMT per average vehicle which are attributable to 

changes in economic and demographic patterns, etc. 

The data on decreasing VMT per vehicle and age differ.by vehicle category.1* These schedules are shifted over time to account for changes in 

the growth in the average annual VMT/vehicle. 

*In addition, the VMT data differ for gasoline versus diesel-fueled 

heavy-duty trucks. 

A-5 
The actual calculation procedure used to derive fleet VMT, mpg, and fuel 

consumption in any given year is described below: 

TVMT. --^Y k

 RGi1 X PCTi1t x VMTk1t x SPk1 x VMTADJ i 

where: TVMT. - total VMT per vehicle type j (one of ten 

•• categories of motor vehicles) 

RG.. - registrations of vehicles in year i and 

** vehicle type j 

PCT.. - percentage of registrations of vehicles 

*- in year i and vehicle type j and fuel 

type t 

SP, . - probability of vehicles of age k, 

J vehicle type j, and fuel type t surviving 

to reach age k+1 

VMT. . - vehicle miles traveled of age k, vehicle 

-*1 type j, and fuel type t 

VMTADJ. - annual growth in VMT per average vehicle 

-" type j from year i-l to year i 

TFC * -??^ R G - - x VMTu- x VMTADJ, x PCT.. /MPG..k x ADJ x MPGINDEX t i k j ij kj j ijt/ ljt 

where: TFC - total fuel consumed of type t (leaded, 

unleaded, diesel) 

MPG .. - MPG of registrations of vehicles in year 

•* i and vehicle type j and fuel type t 

ADJ - an optional discount factor which 

adjusts the EPA MPG to an on-road MPG* 

•Used only for cars and light-duty trucks less than 8,500 lbs GVW. 

Fuel economy input data for other vehicle categories are on-road values. 

A-6 
P.63 

MPGINDEX - an optional factor which adjusts on-road 

mpg to account for increasing odometer 

and changes in average daily travel with 

increasing age* 

AMPG - TVMT t /SE E (RG x PCT x SPk x VMTfc x VMTADJ /MPG 

where: AMPG. - average fleet MPG for vehicle type j 

The average fleet fuel economy is determined harmonically in order to 

calculate fuel consumption. The calculation is weighted by both the age 

distribution of vehicles on the road and their relative VMT. This 

weighting accounts for the fact that there are relatively less than 

later model year vehicles. 

•Used only for automobiles due to data limitations. 

A-7 
P.64 

APPENDIX B 

APRIL 1987 OUTPUT OF THE 

MOTOR FUEL CONSUMPTION MODEL 

B-l 
1983 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

HVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HICBWAY 

EPA 

MPC 

24.2 

30.5 

25.6 

19.6 

27.1 

20.7 

24.7 

ROAD 

MPG 

21.0 

25.7 

22.1 

16.8 

22.4 

17.6 

21.3 

11.6 

7.1 

5.8 

7.9 

18.6 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

CAS 

6.500 

2.252 

8.753 

1.737 

0.385 

2.142 

10.895 

0.342 

0.047 

0.000 

0.389 

11.284 

DSL 

0.092 

0.080 

0.171 

0.127 

0.045 

0.172 

0.343 

0.077 

0.056 

0.074 

0.207 

0.550 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

18.6 

27.7 

20.0 

14.4 

24.5 

15.3 

19.0 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

16.1 

22.9 

17.2 

12.1 

19.9 

12.9 

16.3 

10.4 

6.0 

5.1 

6.3 

14.3 

CAS 

86.380 

20.792 

107.172 

27.103 

3.702 

30.805 

137.977 

2.641 

2.318 

0.040 

4.998 

142.975 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

1.157 

0.631 

1.789 

0.373 

0.158 

0.530 

2.319 

0.130 

0.612 

1.067 

1.810 

4.128 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

87.537 

21.424 

108.961 

27.475 

3.860 

31.335 

140.296 

2.771 

2.930 

1.107 

6.808 

147.104 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

OFF-BVY CAS 

BWYIOFP-BUY CAS 

991.71 

268.63 

1260.34 

207.08 

35.74 

242.83 

1503.17 

34.67 

65.65 

49.63 

149.94 

1653.11 

LEADED 

15.847 

4.297 

20.145 

8.366 

0.453 

8.818 

28.963 

2.730 

5.863 

0.090 

8.682 

37.645 

2.300 

39.945 

UNLEADED 

44.641 

7.098 

51.739 

8.446 

1.273 

9.719 

61.458 

0.412 

0.000 

0.000 

0.412 

61.870 

0.748 

62.619 

TOTAL 

CAS 

60.488 

11.396 

71.884 

16.812 

1.726 

18.537 

90.421 

3.142 

5.863 

0.090 

9.094 

99.515 

3.048 

102.364 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL, 

0.653 

0.278 

0.931 

0.196 

0.063 

0.259 

1.190 

0.176 

4.976 

9.647 

14.799 

13.988 

BLEND BLEND NEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METB 

0.243 

0.046 

0.289 

0.068 

0.007 

0.074 

0.363 

0.011 

0.024 

0.000 

0.035 

0.398 

0.045 

0.007 

0.052 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.052 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.052 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.045 

0.007 

0.052 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.052 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.052 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

61.429 

11.727 

73.156 

17.075 

1.795 

18.870 

92.026 

3.329 

10.862 

9.737 

23.928 

115.954 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

4.01 

0.76 

4.77 

1.11 

0.12 

1.23 

6.00 

0.22 

0.71 

0.64 

1.56 

7.36 

0.20 

6.69 

B-2 
1984 

P.66 

HEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGBWAY 

EPA 

MPC 

25.3 

31.8 

26.3 

19.0 

27.1 

20.4 

23.1 

. .. 

ROAD 

MPC 

22.0 

26.8 

23.0 

16.4 

22.6 

17.4 

21.7 

11.8 

7.3 

6.0 

7.8 

18.3 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

CAS 

7.703 

2.266 

9.969 

2.327 

0.677 

3.204 

13.172 

0.372 

0.056 

0.000 

0.429 

13.601 

DSL 

0.088 

0.062 

0.150 

0.057 

0.067 

0.124 

0.275 

0.092 

0.077 

0.121 

0.289 

0.564 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

19.5 

28.4 

20.9 

15.0 

23.0 

16.0 

19.9 

ROAD 

MPC 

16.8 

23.4 

17.9 

12.6 

20.5 

13.5 

17.0 

10.7 

6.2 

3.2 

6.5 

14.7 

CAS 

87.418 

21.916 

109.334 

28.242 

4.270 

32.512 

141.846 

2.920 

2.147 

0.033 

3.102 

146.949 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

1.234 

0.682 

1.916 

0.426 

0.223 

0.649 

2.363 

0.221 

0.631 

1.129 

2.001 

4.366 

KTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

88.652 

22.398 

111.251 

28.668 

4.493 

33.160 

144.411 

3.142 

2.798 

1.164 

7.104 

131.315 

VMT 

(IH BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

OFF-BWY CAS 

HWYIOPF-HVY CAS 

1018.14 

282.84 

1300.98 

222.12 

42.61 

264.73 

1565.71 

40.42 

64.45 

55.14 

160.01 

1725.72 

LEADED UNLEADED TOTAL 

13.715 

3.818 

17.333 

7.611 

0.441 

8.052 

25.585 

3.010 

5.238 

0.078 

8.326 

33.911 

2.840 

36.751 

45.825 

7.916 

53.741 

9.653 

1.544 

11.197 

64.938 

0.462 

0.000 

0.000 

0.462 

65.400 

0.902 

66.302 

CAS 

39.540 

11.734 

71.274 

17.264 

1.985 

19.249 

90.524 

3.472 

5.238 

0.078 

8.787 

99.311 

3.742 

103.053 

(IH BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.661 

0.287 

0.948 

0.211 

0.086 

0.298 

1.246 

0.288 

5.118 

10.439 

15.845 

17.090 

BLEND BLEND NEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.300 

0.059 

0.359 

0.087 

0.010 

0.097 

0.455 

0.015 

0.026 

0.000 

0.042 

0.497 

0.092 

0.016 

0.108 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.108 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.108 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.092 

0.016 

0.108 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.108 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.108 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

60.393 

12.096 

72.690 

17.362 

2.082 

19.644 

92.333 

3.774 

10.382 

10.517 

24.674 

117.007 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.93 

0.79 

4.74 

1.13 

0.14 

1.28 

6.02 

0.23 

0.68 

0.69 

1.61 

7.63 

0.24 

6.72 

B-3 
1983 

HEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.3 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

EPA 

MPG 

26.1 

30.8 

27.2 

19.7 

26.4 

20.8 

25.6 

ROAD 

MPG 

22.6 

26.1 

23.4 

16.9 

21.9 

17.8 

22.0 

12.1 

7.6 

6.1 

8.2 

18.9 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

CAS 

8.175 

2.776 

10.951 

3.072 

0.834 

3.906 

14.857 

0.461 

0.059 

0.000 

0.520 

13.377 

DSL 

0.029 

0.062 

0.091 

0.046 

0.014 

0.060 

0.151 

0.127 

0.102 

0.123 

0.352 

0.503 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

-SPA 

MPG 

20.5 

28.9 

22.0 

15.7 

25.4 

16.8 

20.8 

... 

ROAD 

MPC 

17.5 

23.7 

18.6 

13.3 

20.8 

14.1 

17.6 

11.0 

6.4 

5.4 

6.8 

15.4 

GAS 

88.547 

23.436 

111.983 

29.858 

4.977 

34.835 

146.818 

3.278 

1.988 

0.031 

5.297 

152.115 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

1.246 

0.726 

1.973 

0.465 

0.234 

0.699 

2.672 

0.347 

0.714 

1.189 

2.250 

4.922 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

89.793 

24.163 

113.956 

30.323 

5.211 

35.534 

149.490 

3.625 

2.702 

1.220 

7.547 

157.037 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8 

TRUCK IMP 0 

TOTAL LDT 

-8 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) 

5 

5 

1061.83 

310.76 

1372.59 

241.04 

50.02 

291.06 

LEADED 

11.905 

3.482 

15.388 

6.781 

0.427 

7.207 

UNLEADED 

47.605 

9.201 

56.805 

11.043 

1.881 

12.923 

TOTAL 

CAS 

59.510 

12.683 

72.193 

17.824 

2.307 

20.131 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.639 

0.303 

0.942 

0.217 

0.083 

0.300 

BLEND BLEND HEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.372 

0.080 

0.452 

0.115 

0.014 

0.129 

0.096 

0.019 

0.115 

0.011 

0.002 

0.013 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.096 

0.019 

0.115 

0.011 

0.002 

0.013 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

60.616 

13.085 

73.701 

18.166 

2.406 

20.573 

KMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.95 

0.85 

4.81 

1.18 

0.16 

1.34 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 1663.65 22.595 69.729 92.324 1.242 0.581 0.128 0.000 0.128 94.274 6.15 

LT HVY TRUCKS 47.57 

MED BVY TRUCKS 63.48 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 56.89 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 167.94 

3.330 0.529 3.859 0.433 0.023 0.000 0.000 

4.581 0.000 4.581 5.276 0.032 0.000 0.000 

0.062 0.000 0.062 10.496 0.000 0.000 0.000 

7.973 0.529 8.502 16.205 0.056 0.000 0.000 

0.000 4.315 0.28 

0.000 9.889 0.65 

0.000 10.559 0.69 

0.000 24.763 1.62 

TOTAL BICBWAY 1831.59 30.568 70.238 100.826 17.446 0.637 0.128 0.000 0.128 119.037 7.76 

OFF-BWY CAS 

BWYtOFF-BWY GAS 

2.998 0.866 3.864 

33.566 71.124 104.690 

0.25 

6.83 

B-4 
1986 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BIGBWAY 

EPA 

MPC 

26.5 

31.3 

27.7 

20.0 

25.7 

21.2 

26.1 

...... 

ROAD 

MPG 

22.9 

26.4 

23.8 

17.1 

21.4 

18.1 

22.4 

12.3 

7.6 

6.3 

8.3 

19.7 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

GAS 

8.202 

3.210 

11.412 

3.055 

1.047 

4.101 

13.513 

0.357 

0.068 

0.000 

0.425 

13.939 

DSL 

0.013 

0.028 

0.041 

0.039 

0.021 

0.081 

0.122 

0.108 

0.092 

0.104 

0.304 

0.425 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPG 

21.5 

29.4 

23.0 

16.3 

25.5 

17.3 

21.7 

ROAD 

MPC 

18.2 

24.2 

19.4 

13.8 

21.0 

14.8 

18.3 

11.2 

6.6 

5.5 

7.0 

16.0 

GAS 

89.558 

25.278 

114.833 

31.397 

5.879 

37.277 

152.112 

3.518 

1.850 

0.027 

5.398 

157.508 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IH MILLIONS) 

DSL 

1.234 

0.731 

1.965 

0.514 

0.252 

0.766 

2.730 

0.451 

0.764 

1.228 

2.443 

5.174 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

90.792 

26.009 

116.800 

31.911 

6.131 

38.042 

134.842 

3.969 

2.615 

1.255 

7.839 

162.681 

VMT 

(IH BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV -f LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BIGBWAY 

OFF-BWY GAS 

BWY&OFF-HWY CAS 

1115.06 

348.07 

1463.13 

262.96 

61.10 

324.06 

1787.19 

54.12 

63.77 

59.30 

177.19 

1964.38 

LEADED 

10.309 

3.109 

13.418 

6.049 

0.417 

6.467 

19.885 

3.606 

4.082 

0.050 

7.739 

27.623 

2.952 

30.575 

UNLEADED 

49.396 

10.787 

60.184 

12.415 

2.376 

14.791 

74.975 

0.543 

0.000 

0.000 

0.543 

75.517 

0.912 

76.429 

TOTAL 

GAS 

59.705 

13.896 

73.602 

18.463 

2.793 

21.238 

94.839 

4.149 

4.082 

0.050 

8.281 

103.141 

3.864 

107.005 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.613 

0.298 

0.910 

0.232 

0.087 

0.319 

1.230 

0.557 

5.434 

10.696 

16.687 

17.917 

BLEND BLEND NEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.591 

0.145 

0.736 

0.212 

0.027 

0.239 

0.975 

0.067 

0.076 

0.001 

0.144 

1.119 

0.277 

0.071 

0.349 

0.087 

0.008 

0.095 

0.443 

0.045 

0.050 

0.001 

0.096 

0.539 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.277 

0.071 

0.349 

0.087 

0.008 

0.095 

0.443 

0.045 

0.050 

0.001 

0.096 

0.539 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

61.186 

14.410 

73.596 

18.997 

2.913 

21.911 

97.508 

4.817 

9.642 

10.748 

25.208 

122.715 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.99 

0.94 

4.93 

1.24 

0.19 

1.43 

6.36 

0.31 

0.63 

0.70 

1.64 

8.00 

0.25 

6.98 

B-5 
1987 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BIGBWAY 

KPA 

MPG 

27.1 

31.2 

28.2 

20.4 

25.5 

21.4 

26.5 

.. . 

ROAD 

MPC 

23.3 

26.3 

24.2 

17.4 

21.3 

18.2 

22.7 

12.5 

7.7 

6.4 

8.3 

19.9 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IH MILLIONS) 

CAS 

7.356 

3.200 

10.756 

2.943 

0.932 

3.876 

14.631 

0.363 

0.066 

0.000 

0.429 

15.061 

DSL 

0.015 

0.029 

0.044 

0.062 

0.018 

0.079 

0.124 

0.121 

0.092 

0.103 

0.316 

0.439 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPG 

22.4 

29.8 

23.9 

16.9 

25.5 

18.1 

22.5 

...... 

. . 

ROAD 

MPC 

18.9 

24.5 

20.0 

14.3 

21.0 

15.3 

18.9 

11.5 

6.8 

5.6 

7.2 

16.6 

GAS 

90.220 

27.070 

117.290 

32.756 

6.641 

39.397 

156.687 

3.748 

1.724 

0.023 

5.496 

162.183 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

1.209 

0.731 

1.940 

0.563 

0.264 

0.827 

2.767 

0.566 

0.814 

1.260 

2.640 

5.407 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

91.429 

27.801 

119.230 

33.319 

6.905 

40.224 

159.454 

4.314 

2.538 

1.284 

8.136 

167.590 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8 

TRUCK IMP 0 

TOTAL LDT 

-8 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) 

5 

5 

1149.69 

381.22 

1530.91 

281.97 

69.25 

351.22 

LEADED 

9.142 

2.823 

11.966 

5.462 

0.408 

5.869 

UNLEADED 

50.297 

12.208 

62.505 

13.367 

2.750 

16.317 

TOTAL 

CAS 

39.439 

15.032 

74.471 

19.029 

3.137 

22.186 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.382 

0.293 

0.874 

0.250 

0.088 

0.338 

BLEND BLEND NEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.649 

0.170 

0.819 

0.237 

0.034 

0.271 

0.312 

0.090 

0.401 

0.139 

0.012 

0.151 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.312 

0.090 

0.401 

0.139 

0.012 

0.151 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

60.981 

13.584 

76.363 

19.653 

3.291 

22.946 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.98 

1.02 

4.99 

1.28 

0.21 

1.30 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 1882.12 17.833 78.822 96.657 1.212 1.089 0.352 0.000 0.552 99.511 6.49 

LT BVY TRUCKS 58.82 

MED BVY TRUCKS 63.14 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 61.27 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 183.24 

3.270 1.037 4.307 0.676 

3.628 0.000 3.628 3.494 

0.041 0.000 0.041 10.813 

6.939 1.037 7.976 16.985 

0 

0 

0 

0 

078 

076 

001 

154 

0.076 

0.083 

0.001 

0.160 

0.000 0.076 5.137 0.34 

0.000 0.083 9.281 0.61 

0.000 0.001 10.858 0.71 

0.000 0.160 25.275 1.65 

TOTAL BIGBWAY 2065.36 24.774 79.859 104.633 18.197 1.244 0.713 0.000 0.713 124.787 8.14 

OFF-BWY GAS 

BWY&OFF-BWY GAS 

2.907 0.957 3.864 

27.680 80.816 108.497 

0.25 

7.08 

B-6 
P.70 

1988 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV -r LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL HVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

EPA 

MPG 

27.8 

31.2 

28.8 

20.9 

25.2 

21.7 

27.0 

ROAD 

MPG 

23.9 

26.3 

24.6 

17.8 

21.0 

18.3 

23.1 

12.2 

7.6 

6.2 

8.4 

20.1 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IH MILLIONS) 

CAS 

7.485 

3.468 

10.953 

3.075 

0.879 

3.954 

14.908 

0.373 

0.063 

0.000 

0.436 

15.344 

DSL 

0.015 

0.031 

0.046 

0.069 

0.016 

0.085 

0.131 

0.131 

0.092 

0.102 

0.325 

0.456 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0,000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPG 

23.2 

30.2 

24.7 

17.5 

25.5 

18.6 

23.3 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

1-9.5 

24.7 

20.6 

14.8 

21.1 

15.8 

19.5 

11.6 

7.0 

5.7 

7.4 

17.0 

CAS 

90.783 

29.025 

119.808 

34.168 

7.320 

41.488 

161.296 

3.972 

1.606 

0.020 

5.598 

166.894 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

1.165 

0.725 

1.890 

0.619 

0.273 

0.892 

2.782 

0.687 

0.861 

1.287 

2.835 

5.617 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

91.949 

29.749 

121.698 

34.787 

7.593 

42.380 

164.078 

4.659 

2.467 

1.307 

8.433 

172.311 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) LEADED UNLEADED TOTAL 

GAS 

FUEL CONSUMPTION 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) MMB/ 

DSL BLEND BLEND NEAT TOTAL TOTAL DAY 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH METH W/ALC TOTAL 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT HVY TRUCKS 

MED HVY TRUCKS 

HVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

OFF-BWY GAS 

BWY&OFF-BWY GAS 

1154.63 

407.96 

1562.59 

295.33 

74.71 

370.04 

1932.63 

63.52 

62.60 

63.00 

189.13 

2121.76 

8.048 

2.510 

10.558 

4.889 

0.398 

5.287 

15.846 

2.908 

3.260 

0.032 

6.200 

22.046 

2.884 

24.930 

49.542 

13.387 

62.929 

14.300 

3.005 

17.305 

80.235 

1.594 

0.000 

0.000 

1.594 

81.829 

0.980 

82.809 

57.590 

15.898 

73.488 

19.189 

3.403 

22.593 

96.080 

4.502 

3.260 

0.032 

7.795 

103.875 

3.864 

107.739 

0.328 

0.278 

0.806 

0.266 

0.087 

0.353 

1.139 

0.801 

3.555 

10.944 

17.299 

18.459 

0.680 

0.191 

0.871 

0.253 

0.039 

0.292 

1.164 

0.081 

0.072 

0.001 

0.153 

1.317 

0.414 

0.123 

0.537 

0.189 

0.019 

0.208 

0.744 

0.098 

0.107 

0.001 

0.206 

0.950 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.414 

0.123 

0.537 

0.189 

0.019 

0.208 

0.744 

0.098 

0.107 

0.001 

0.206 

0.930 

59.212 

16.490 

75.701 

19.897 

3.549 

23.446 

99.148 

5.482 

8.994 

10.978 

25.453 

124.601 

3.86 

1.08 

4.94 

1.30 

0.23 

1.53 

6.47 

0.36 

0.59 

0.72 

1.66 

8.13 

0.25 

7.03 

B-7 
P.71 

1989 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.3 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

HVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BIGBWAY 

BPA 

MPC 

28.4 

31.6 

29.4 

21.4 

23.0 

22.1 

27.5 

ROAD 

MPG 

24.3 

26.6 

25.0 

18.2 

20.9 

18.7 

23.4 

12.6 

7.7 

6.3 

8.6 

20.3 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

CAS 

6.883 

3.368 

10.250 

3.083 

0.864 

3.947 

14.197 

0.382 

0.060 

0.000 

0.442 

14.639 

DSL 

0.017 

0.032 

0.050 

0.074 

0.014 

0.088 

0.138 

0.141 

0.092 

0.101 

0.334 

0.472 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

24.0 

30.5 

23.3 

18.0 

25.4 

19.1 

23.9 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

20.1 

25.0 

21.2 

15.3 

21.0 

16.2 

20.0 

11.8 

7.1 

5.8 

7.6 

17.5 

CAS 

91.076 

30.838 

121.914 

35.500 

7.947 

43.446 

165.360 

4.186 

1.494 

0.017 

5.696 

171.037 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

1.109 

0.714 

1.823 

0.677 

0.280 

0.957 

2.780 

0.815 

0.905 

1.308 

3.027 

3.807 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

92.185 

31.552 

123.737 

36.176 

8.227 

44.403 

168.140 

3.001 

2.399 

1.323 

8.724 

176.864 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 

TRUCK IMP 

TOTAL LDT 

0-8 

0-8 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) 

3 

3 

1156.39 

432.19 

1588.78 

308.26 

79.44 

387.70 

LEADED 

7.270 

2.322 

9.592 

4.443 

0.402 

4.843 

UNLEADED 

48.664 

14.331 

63.016 

14.829 

3.193 

18.022 

TOTAL 

GAS 

55.934 

16.673 

72.608 

19.272 

3.595 

22.867 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.473 

0.267 

0.740 

0.281 

0.086 

0.367 

BLEND BLEND NEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.732 

0.219 

0.951 

0.357 

0.066 

0.424 

0.474 

0.147 

0.621 

0.230 

0.028 

0.258 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METB 

0.474 

0.147 

0.621 

0.230 

0.028 

0.258 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

57.613 

17.306 

74.920 

20.140 

3.776 

23.917 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.76 

1.13 

4.89 

1.31 

0.25 

1.56 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED HVY TRUCKS 

HVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL HVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

OFF-HWY CAS 

HWY-.OFF-HWY CAS 

1976.48 

68.18 

62.08 

64.50 

194.76 

2171.24 

14.437 

2.587 

2.969 

0.026 

5.582 

20.019 

2.861 

22.880 

81.038 

2.104 

0.000 

0.000 

2.104 

83.142 

1.003 

84.145 

95.473 

4.691 

2.969 

0.026 

7.686 

103.161 

3.864 

107.025 

1.107 

0.923 

5.388 

11.031 

17.342 

18.649 

1.375 

0.075 

0.057 

0.000 

0.132 

1.507 

0.879 

0.107 

0.113 

0.001 

0.221 

1.100 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.879 

0.107 

0.113 

0.001 

0.221 

1.100 

98.836 

5.796 

8.727 

11.058 

25.581 

124.417 

6.45 

0.38 

0.57 

0.72 

1.67 

8.12 

0.25 

6.98 
1990 

HEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT HVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

EPA 

MPG 

29.0 

32.0 

29.9 

21.8 

24.8 

22.4 

28.0 

ROAD 

MPC 

24.8 

26.9 

25.4 

18.5 

20.7 

18.9 

23.7 

13.1 

7.8 

6.4 

8.8 

20.6 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IH MILLIONS) 

GAS 

7.079 

3.366 

10.445 

3.091 

0.847 

3.938 

14.383 

0.391 

0.038 

0.000 

0.449 

14.831 

DSL 

0.021 

0.034 

0.035 

0.079 

0.013 

0.092 

0.147 

0.152 

0.092 

0.100 

0.344 

0.492 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

24.8 

30.8 

26.3 

18.5 

25.3 

19.6 

24.6 

...... 

... 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

20.6 

25.2 

21.7 

15.8 

21.0 

16.6 

20.5 

12.0 

7.3 

5.9 

7.8 

17.9 

CAS 

91.546 

32.540 

124.086 

36.763 

8.522 

45.286 

169.372 

4.392 

1.390 

0.014 

5.797 

173.169 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

1.039 

0.699 

1.739 

0.737 

0.285 

1.021 

2.760 

0.950 

0.947 

1.324 

3.221 

5.981 

KTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

92.585 

33.240 

125.825 

37.300 

8.807 

46.307 

172.132 

3.342 

2.337 

1.339 

9.018 

181.150 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) LEADED UNLEADED TOTAL 

CAS 

FUEL CONSUMPTION 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL BLEND BLEND NEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

TOTAL 

METH 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV -r LDT 

LT HVY TRUCKS 

MED HVY TRUCKS 

HVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL HVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BIGBWAY 

OFF-BWY CAS 

BWY&OFF-BWY CAS 

1162.43 

453.15 

1615.58 

320.50 

83.84 

404.33 

2019.91 

72.84 

61.70 

65.83 

200.37 

2220.29 

6.680 

2.207 

8.887 

4.023 

0.416 

4.439 

13.326 

2.340 

2.753 

0.021 

5.114 

18.440 

2.838 

21.278 

48.008 

15.146 

63.134 

15.529 

3.409 

18.939 

82.093 

2.550 

0.000 

0.000 

2.550 

84.643 

1.026 

85.668 

54.688 

17.354 

72.042 

19.552 

3.825 

23.377 

95.419 

4.890 

2.753 

0.021 

7.664 

103.083 

3.864 

106.947 

0.416 

0.254 

0.670 

0.297 

0.084 

0.381 

1.051 

1.036 

5.620 

11.096 

17.751 

18.803 

0.740 

0.235 

0.976 

0.269 

0.052 

0.320 

1.296 

0.071 

0.043 

0.000 

0.114 

1.410 

0.454 

0.146 

0.601 

0.205 

0.030 

0.236 

0.837 

0.086 

0.086 

0.001 

0.174 

1.010 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.454 

0.146 

0.601 

0.205 

0.030 

0.236 

0.837 

0.086 

0.086 

0.001 

0.174 

1.010 

56.299 

17.989 

74.289 

20.324 

3.991 

24.315 

98.603 

6.083 

8.503 

11.117 

23.703 

124.306 

3.67 

1.17 

4.85 

1.33 

0.26 

1.59 

6.43 

0.40 

0.55 

0.73 

1.68 

8.11 

0.25 

6.98 

B-8 
1991 

NEW FLEET 

EPA ROAD REGISTRATIONS EPA ROAD 

MPC MPG (IH MILLIONS) MPC MPC 

CAS DSL MTH CAS 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL MTH TOTAL 

PA DOM 29.5 

PA IMP 32.2 

TOTAL LDV 30.3 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 22.1 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.3 23.1 

TOTAL LDT 22.7 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 28.3 

LI BVY TRUCKS -

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

23.1 

27.1 

25.7 

18.7 

21.0 

19.2 

24.0 

13.5 

7.9 

6.5 

9.0 

7.173 

3.463 

10.638 

3.206 

0.879 

4.084 

14.722 

0.393 

0.037 

0.000 

0.452 

0.025 

0.037 

0.062 

0.082 

0.013 

0.096 

0.158 

0.161 

0.097 

0.102 

0.360 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

25.6 

31.1 

27.0 

19.1 

25.3 

20.1 

25.2 

21.2 

25.4 

22.3 

16.2 

21.0 

17.0 

21.0 

12.2 

7.4 

6.0 

8.0 

92.075 

34.237 

126.312 

38.078 

9.098 

47.177 

173.489 

4.384 

1.296 

0.012 

5.892 

0.965 

0.682 

1.647 

0.796 

0.289 

1.085 

2.732 

1.089 

0.991 

1.340 

3.420 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

93.040 

34.919 

127.939 

38.873 

9.387 

48.262 

176.221 

3.673 

2.287 

1.332 

9.312 

TOTAL BICBWAY 20.9 13.175 0.517 0.000 18.3 179.381 6.152 0.000 185.533 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 

TRUCK IMP 

TOTAL LDT 

0-8 

0-8 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) 

5 

5 

1169.09 

473.90 

1642.99 

333.11 

88.29 

421.39 

LEADED 

6.120 

2.100 

8.220 

3.642 

0.428 

4.070 

UNLEADED 

47.336 

15.886 

63.222 

16.030 

3.595 

19.645 

TOTAL 

CAS 

53.457 

17.986 

71.442 

19.692 

4.023 

23.715 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.368 

0.242 

0.610 

0.313 

0.082 

0.393 

BLEND BLEND HEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.731 

0.246 

0.977 

0.274 

0.055 

0.329 

0.557 

0.189 

0.746 

0.245 

0.041 

0.286 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.357 

0.189 

0.746 

0.245 

0.041 

0.286 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

55.112 

18.662 

73.775 

20.524 

4.201 

24.725 

MKB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.59 

1.22 

4.81 

1.34 

0.27 

1.61 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 2064.39 12.290 82.867 95.157 1.004 1.306 1.032 0.000 1.032 98.500 6.43 

LT HVY TRUCKS 

MED HVY TRUCKS 

HVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL HVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HICBWAY 

OFF-BWY CAS 

BWY&OFF-BWY GAS 

77 

61 

67 

206 

2270 

35 

58 

17 

10 

49 

2.082 

2.533 

0.016 

4.631 

16.921 

2.838 

19.760 

2.927 

0.000 

0.000 

2.927 

85.794 

1.026 

86.820 

5.009 

2.333 

0.016 

7.358 

102.713 

3.864 

106.379 

1 

5 

11 

17 

18 

148 

664 

151 

963 

967 

0.074 

0.043 

0.000 

0.117 

1.423 

0.095 

0.091 

0.001 

0.187 

1.218 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.093 

0.091 

0.001 

0.187 

1.218 

6.327 

8.330 

11.167 

23.824 

124.324 

0.41 

0.54 

0.73 

1.68 

8.11 

0.23 

6.93 

B-9 
1992 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8 

TRUCK IMP 0-8 

TOTAL LDT 

3 

3 

SPA 

MPG 

30.0 

32.4 

30.7 

22.3 

25.3 

23.0 

ROAD 

MPG 

23.5 

27.2 

26.0 

19.0 

21.1 

19.4 

REC •ISTRATK INS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

GAS 

7.370 

3.461 

10.832 

3.321 

0.910 

4.231 

DSL 

0.030 

0.038 

0.068 

0.985 

0.014 

0.099 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL LDV -> LDT 28.7 

LT HVY TRUCKS 

MED HVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

24.3 15.063 0.167 0.000 

13.9 0.399 0.171 0.000 

8.0 0.057 0.101 0.000 

6.6 0.000 0.104 0.000 

9.2 0.456 0.376 0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

26.4 

31.3 

27.6 

19.6 

25.3 

20.6 

23.8 

...... 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

21.8 

23.6 

22.8 

16.7 

21.0 

17.4 

21.4 

12.3 

7.3 

6.1 

8.2 

18.6 

CAS 

92.734 

35.829 

128.583 

39.438 

9.671 

49.109 

177.692 

4.761 

1.214 

0.010 

5.984 

183.676 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IR MILLIONS) 

DSL 

0.893 

0.664 

1.357 

0.835 

0.292 

1.147 

2.704 

1.233 

1.036 

1.336 

3.623 

6.330 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

93.647 

36.493 

130.140 

40.294 

9.963 

50.256 

180.396 

5.994 

2.230 

1.366 

9.609 

TOTAL BIGBWAY 21.2 13.519 0.343 0.000 190.003 

VKI 

(IN BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

HVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

« 

OFF-HWY CAS 

BWY&OFF-BWY CAS 

1178.69 

492.29 

1670.99 

346.26 

92.55 

438.81 

2109.80 

81.72 

61.79 

68.54 

212.05 

2321.83 

LEADED 

5.638 

2.039 

7.676 

3.368 

0.437 

3.804 

11.480 

1.863 

2.349 

0.012 

4.224 

13.704 

2.838 

18.342 

UNLEADED 

46.774 

16.475 

63.249 

16.513 

3.765 

20.277 

83.526 

3.244 

0.000 

0.000 

3.244 

86.770 

1.026 

87.796 

TOTAL 

GAS 

52.412 

18.513 

70.923 

19.880 

4.201 

24.081 

93.006 

5.107 

2.349 

0.012 

7.468 

102.474 

3.864 

106.338 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.328 

0.232 

0.560 

0.327 

0.081 

0.409 

0.969 

1.250 

5.729 

11.203 

18.182 

19.151 

BLEND BLEND 

ETHANOL METHANOL 

0.772 

0.273 

1.044 

0.297 

0.062 

0.359 

1.403 

0.080 

0.042 

0.000 

0.122 

1.526 

0.658 

0.234 

0.891 

0.288 

0.052 

0.340 

1.231 

0.105 

0.094 

0.000 

0.200 

1.431 

HEAT 

METH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

MBTB 

0.658 

0.234 

0.891 

0.288 

0.052 

0.340 

1.231 

0.105 

0.094 

0.000 

0.200 

1.431 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

34.169 

19.252 

73.421 

20.792 

4.396 

25.189 

98.610 

6.542 

8.214 

11.216 

25.972 

124.582 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.53 

1.26 

4.79 

1.36 

0.29 

1.64 

6.43 

0.43 

0.54 

0.73 

1.69 

8.13 

0.25 

6.94 

B-10 
1993 

NEW FLEET 

r*-. 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

BPA 

MPG 

30.5 

32.6 

31.1 

22.8 

25.6 

23.3 

29.1 

ROAD 

MPG 

23.8 

27.3 

26.3 

19.3 

21.3 

19.7 

24.3 

14.2 

8.1 

6.7 

9.4 

21.4 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

GAS 

7.566 

3.359 

11.124 

3.433 

0.943 

4.378 

13.502 

0.408 

0.057 

0.000 

0.465 

13.967 

DSL 

0.034 

0.041 

0.076 

0.088 

0.014 

0.102 

0.178 

0.175 

0.105 

0.106 

0.386 

0.564 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

27.1 

31.6 

28.3 

20.1 

25.4 

21.0 

26.4 

ROAD 

MPC 

22.3 

25.7 

23.2 

17.1 

21.1 

17.8 

21.8 

12.7 

7.6 

6.2 

8.3 

19.0 

GAS 

93.540 

37.402 

130.941 

40.848 

10.244 

51.091 

182.033 

4.930 

1.142 

0.008 

6.080 

188.113 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

0.827 

0.648 

1.473 

0.913 

0.294 

1.207 

2.682 

1.373 

1.082 

1.372 

3.829 

6.311 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

94.367 

38.049 

132.416 

41.761 

10.338 

52.298 

184.715 

6.305 

2.224 

1.380 

9.909 

194.624 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) LEADED UNLEADED TOTAL 

GAS 

FUEL CONSUMPTION 

(IH BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL BLEND BLEND NEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

TOTAL 

METH 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

W O/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL HVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

OFF-BWY CAS 

BWY&OFF-BWY CAS 

1189.78 

510.44 

1700.22 

359.91 

96.74 

456.64 

2156.86 

85.97 

62.31 

69.90 

218.18 

2375.04 

5.268 

1.999 

7.267 

3.138 

0.445 

3.583 

10.850 

1.672 

2.200 

0.009 

3.881 

14.731 

2.838 

17.569 

46.292 

17.046 

63.337 

16.977 

3.929 

20.907 

84.244 

3.536 

0.000 

0.000 

3.536 

87.779 

1.026 

88.805 

51.560 

19.044 

70.604 

20.115 

4.374 

24.489 

93.093 

5.208 

2.200 

0.009 

7.417 

102.510 

3.864 

106.374 

0.294 

0.226 

0.319 

0.342 

0.080 

0.422 

0.942 

1.340 

3.811 

11.248 

18.399 

19.340 

0.766 

0.283 

1.049 

0.304 

0.063 

0.369 

1.417 

0.083 

0.042 

0.000 

0.125 

1.543 

0.758 

0.282 

1.039 

0.332 

0.064 

0.396 

1.435 

0.115 

0.098 

0.000 

0.213 

1.649 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.758 

0.282 

1.039 

0.332 

0.064 

0.396 

1.435 

0.115 

0.098 

0.000 

0.213 

1.649 

33.377 

19.834 

73.211 

21.093 

4.383 

25.676 

98.888 

6.745 

8.152 

11.257 

26.154 

125.042 

3.48 

1.29 

4.78 

1.38 

0.30 

1.67 

6.45 

0.44 

0.53 

0.73 

1.71 

8.16 

0.25 

6.94 

B-l l 
1994 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK DO? 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

HVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL HVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

BPA 

MPC 

31.5 

32.8 

31.9 

23.2 

25.8 

23.7 

29.7 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

26.3 

27.3 

26.8 

19.6 

21.5 

19.9 

25.0 

14.4 

8.2 

6.8 

9.5 

21.8 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

GAS 

7.761 

3.357 

11.318 

3.350 

0.973 

4.523 

15.841 

0.418 

0.056 

0.000 

0.474 

16.315 

DSL 

0.039 

0.043 

0.082 

0.091 

0.015 

0.106 

0.188 

0.179 

0.110 

0.109 

0.398 

0.586 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPG 

27.8 

31.8 

28.9 

20.6 

25.5 

21.4 

26.9 

ROAD 

MPC 

22.8 

25.9 

23.7 

17.4 

21.2 

18.1 

22.2 

13.0 

7.8 

6.3 

8.5 

19.3 

CAS 

94.478 

38.854 

133.331 

42.312 

10.810 

53.123 

186.454 

5.090 

1.077 

0.006 

6.173 

192.628 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

0.771 

0.633 

1.403 

0.969 

0.295 

1.265 

2.668 

1.514 

1.130 

1.387 

4.031 

6.700 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

95.248 

39.487 

134.735 

43.282 

11.106 

54.387 

189.122 

6.604 

2.207 

1.394 

10.205 

199.327 

VMT 

(IH BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV -> LDT 

LT HVY TRUCKS 

MED HVY TRUCKS 

HVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

OFF-BWY CAS 

BWYIOFF-HWY CAS 

1203.76 

526.22 

1729.99 

374.01 

100.87 

474.88 

2204.87 

90.05 

63.06 

71.33 

224.44 

2429.31 

LEADED 

5.016 

1.967 

6.982 

2.923 

0.452 

3.375 

10.357 

1.508 

2.074 

0.007 

3.589 

13.946 

2.838 

16.784 

UNLEADED 

45.759 

17.507 

63.266 

17.449 

4.085 

21.534 

84.800 

3.783 

0.000 

0.000 

3.783 

88.382 

1.026 

89.608 

TOTAL 

GAS 

30.775 

19.473 

70.248 

20.372 

4.537 

24.909 

95.157 

5.291 

2.074 

0.007 

7.371 

102.328 

3.864 

106.392 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.270 

0.220 

0.490 

0.356 

0.079 

0.435 

0.925 

1.425 

5.907 

11.300 

18.632 

19.557 

BLEND BLEND 

ETHANOL METHANOL 

0.808 

0.310 

1.118 

0.329 

0.072 

0.401 

1.519 

0.089 

0.042 

0.000 

0.131 

1.650 

0.859 

0.331 

1.190 

0.377 

0.077 

0.454 

1.644 

0.125 

0.102 

0.000 

0.227 

1.871 

HEAT 

METH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METB 

0.859 

0.331 

1.190 

0.377 

0.077 

0.454 

1.644 

0.125 

0.102 

0.000 

0.227 

1.871 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

52.711 

20.335 

73.046 

21.433 

4.765 

26.198 

99.245 

6.930 

8.125 

11.307 

26.362 

125.606 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.44 

1.33 

4.76 

1.40 

0.31 

1.71 

6.47 

0.43 

0.33 

0.74 

1.72 

8.19 

0.23 

6.94 

B-12 
P.77 

1993 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.3 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV •*• LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

BPA 

MPC 

31.5 

33.0 

32.0 

23.5 

26.1 

24.0 

29.8 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

26.5 

27.6 

26.9 

19.8 

21.7 

20.2 

25.1 

14.6 

8.3 

6.9 

9.6 

21.8 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

CAS 

7.857 

3.634 

11.310 

3.665 

1.006 

4.671 

16.181 

0.427 

0.036 

0.000 

0.483 

16.664 

DSL 

0.043 

0.046 

0.090 

0.094 

0.015 

0.109 

0.199 

0.183 

0.114 

0.113 

0.410 

0.609 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

KPA 

MPG 

28.5 

32.0 

29.5 

21.0 

25.6 

21.8 

27.4 

ROAD 

MPG 

23.3 

26.0 

24.1 

17.8 

21.2 

18.3 

22.6 

13.2 

7.9 

6.4 

8.7 

19.7 

CAS 

93.470 

40.277 

133.748 

43.814 

11.375 

35.190 

190.937 

3.243 

1.022 

0.005 

6.270 

197.207 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

0.724 

0.622 

1.347 

1.024 

0.296 

1.320 

2.667 

1.649 

1.178 

1.406 

4.233 

6.900 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

96.195 

40.900 

137.094 

44.839 

11.671 

56.510 

193.604 

6.892 

2.200 

1.411 

10.303 

204.107 

VMT 

(IH BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BIGBWAY 

OFF-BWY CAS 

HWYIOFF-BWY CAS 

1218.22 

542.06 

1760.28 

388.23 

103.19 

493.41 

2233.69 

93.97 

64.13 

72.91 

231.02 

2484.71 

LEADED 

4.863 

1.940 

6.803 

2.714 

0.460 

3.175 

9.978 

1.354 

1.968 

0.005 

3.327 

13.305 

2.838 

16.143 

UNLEADED 

45.320 

17.965 

63.285 

17.949 

4.2*6 

22.196 

85.481 

4.011 

0.000 

0.000 

4.011 

89.492 

1.026 

90.518 

TOTAL 

GAS 

50.183 

19.905 

70.089 

20.664 

4.707 

25.370 

95.459 

5.365 

1.968 

0.005 

7.338 

102.797 

3.864 

106.661 

(IH BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.257 

0.218 

&*!«! 

0.367 

0.077 

Ctii*l 

0.919 

6.026 

[11.372 

18.903-

19.823 

BLEND BLEND BEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.803 

0.320 

1.125 

0.336 

0.076 

0.412 

1.536 

0.091 

0.042 

0.000 

0.134 

1.670 

0.962 

0.382 

1.344 

0.423 

0.090 

0.514 

1.858 

0.133 

0.106 

0.000 

0.241 

2.099 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.962 

0.382 

1.344 

0.423 

0.090 

0.314 

1.858 

0.133 

0.106 

0.000 

0.241 

2.099 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

32.208 

20.825 

73.033 

21.790 

4.930 

26.740 

99.773 

7.096 

8.143 

11.377 

26.616 

126.389 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.41 

1.36 

4.76 

1.42 

0.32 

1.74 

6.31 

0.46 

0.33 

0.74 

1.74 

8.24 

0.25 

6.96 

B-13 
P.78 

1996 

HEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED HVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

EPA 

MPC 

31.3 

33.0 

32.0 

23.3 

26.1 

24.0 

29.8 

...... 

------

ROAD 

MPG 

26.6 

27.6 

26.9 

19.8 

21.7 

20.2 

25.0 

14.7 

8.4 

7.0 

9.7 

21.8 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IH MILLIONS) 

CAS 

7.944 

3.652 

11.596 

3.763 

1.033 

4.796 

16.392 

0.441 

0.056 

0.000 

0.497 

16.889 

DSL 

0.056 

0.048 

0.104 

0.096 

0.016 

0.112 

0.216 

0.189 

0.119 

0.117 

0.425 

0.641 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPG 

29.1 

32.2 

30.0 

21.4 

23.6 

22.2 

27.8 

. -. 

------

...... 

ROAD 

MPG 

23.8 

26.1 

24.3 

18.1 

21.3 

18.7 

22.9 

13.5 

8.0 

6.3 

8.8 

19.9 

CAS 

96.340 

41.588 

138.128 

45.356 

11.927 

57.283 

195.411 

5.391 

0.975 

0.004 

6.370 

201.781 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IH MILLIONS) 

DSL 

0.698 

0.615 

1.313 

1.078 

0.295 

1.372 

2.688 

1.782 

1.228 

1.425 

4.433 

7.121 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

97.238 

42.203 

139.442 

46.434 

12.221 

58.655 

198.097 

7.172 

2.203 

1.429 

10.805 

208.902 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

OFF-BWY CAS 

BWY40FF-BWY CAS 

1234.47 

555.95 

1790.42 

402.68 

109.47 

512.15 

2302.57 

97.80 

65.51 

74.61 

237.92 

2340.49 

LEADED 

4.783 

1.937 

6.720 

2.617 

0.473 

3.089 

9.810 

1.218 

1.891 

0.004 

3.113 

12.923 

2.838 

13.761 

UNLEADED 

45.140 

18.394 

63.534 

18.441 

4.415 

22.856 

86.390 

4.241 

0.000 

0.000 

4.241 

90.632 

1.026 

91.637 

TOTAL 

CAS 

49.923 

20.332 

70.234 

21.038 

4.888 

23.946 

96.200 

5.459 

1.891 

0.004 

7.354 

103.554 

3.864 

107.418 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.233 

0.219 

0.474 

0.377 

0.076 

0.453 

0.927 

1.374 

6.170 

11.462 

19.206 

20.133 

BLEND BLEND NEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.801 

0.326 

1.127 

0.341 

0.078 

0.420 

1.547 

0.092 

0.041 

0.000 

0.133 

1.679 

0.955 

0.389 

1.344 

0.426 

0.094 

0.520 

1.863 

0.131 

0.102 

0.000 

0.233 

2.096 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

MBTH 

0.933 

0.389 

1.344 

0.426 

0.094 

0.320 

1.863 

0.131 

0.102 

0.000 

0.233 

2.096 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

31.934 

21.266 

73.199 

22.203 

5.135 

27.338 

100.537 

7.256 

8.203 

11.466 

26.925 

127.462 

fat 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.39 

1.39 

4.77 

1.45 

0.33 

1.78 

6.56 

0.47 

0.54 

0.75 

1.76 

8.31 

0.25 

7.01 

B-14 
P.79 

1997 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT HVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL HVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

EPA 

MPG 

31.5 

33.0 

32.0 

23.5 

26.1 

24.0 

29.8 

.. 

ROAD 

MPG 

26.6 

27.6 

26.9 

19.8 

21.7 

20.2 

25.0 

14.9 

8.3 

7.1 

9.8 

21.8 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

GAS 

8.039 

3.749 

11.788 

3.866 

1.062 

4.928 

16.716 

0.433 

0.036 

0.000 

0.309 

17.224 

DSL 

0.061 

0.051 

0.112 

0.099 

0.016 

0.115 

0.227 

0.194 

0.124 

0.120 

0.438 

0.666 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

29.5 

32.3 

30.4 

21.7 

23.7 

22.3 

28.1 

... 

...... 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

24.2 

26.2 

24.8 

18.4 

21.4 

19.0 

23.2 

13.7 

8.1 

6.6 

9.0 

20.2 

CAS 

97.677 

42.859 

140.537 

46.937 

12.469 

59.406 

199.943 

3.536 

0.935 

0.003 

6.473 

206.417 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

0.680 

0.612 

1.292 

1.129 

0.293 

1.422 

2.713 

1.910 

1.280 

1.447 

4.637 

7.352 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

98.358 

43.472 

141.829 

48.066 

12.763 

60.828 

202.657 

7.446 

2.216 

1.450 

11.111 

213.769 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

OFF-BWY CAS 

HWY&OFF-HWY GAS 

1251.17 

569.91 

1821.08 

417.37 

113.75 

531.12 

2352.20 

101.53 

67.18 

76.44 

245.16 

2397.35 

LEADED 

4.729 

1.938 

6.667 

2.552 

0.485 

3.037 

9.704 

1.097 

1.828 

0.003 

2.928 

12.633 

2.838 

15.471 

UNLEADED 

45.070 

18.827 

63.898 

18.963 

4.584 

23.347 

87.444 

4.433 

0.000 

0.000 

4.433 

91.898 

1.026 

92.923 

TOTAL 

GAS 

49.799 

20.763 

70.565 

21.513 

5.069 

26.584 

97.149 

5.550 

1.828 

0.003 

7.381 

104.330 

3.864 

108.394 

(IN BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.255 

0.221 

0.476 

0.389 

0.073 

0.464 

0.940 

1.637 

6.337 

11.372 

19.546 

20.486 

BLEND BLEND HEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.799 

0.333 

1.131 

0.348 

0.081 

0.429 

1.361 

0.092 

0.039 

0.000 

0.132 

1.693 

0.951 

0.395 

1.347 

0.430 

0.097 

0.527 

1.874 

0.128 

0.098 

0.000 

0.226 

2.100 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.951 

0.395 

1.347 

0.430 

0.097 

0.327 

1.874 

0.128 

0.098 

0.000 

0.226 

2.100 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

31.804 

21.713 

73.519 

22.683 

5.323 

28.005 

101.524 

7.407 

8.303 

11.574 

27.285 

128.809 

MMB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.38 

1.42 

4.80 

1.48 

0.35 

1.83 

6.62 

0.48 

0.54 

0.75 

1.78 

8.40 

0.25 

7.07 

3-15 
P.80 

1998 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT HVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL HVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

BPA 

MPC 

31.3 

33.0 

32.0 

23.5 

26.1 

24.0 

29.7 

---.-. 

ROAD 

MPC 

26.6 

27.6 

26.9 

19.8 

21.7 

20.2 

25.0 

14.9 

8.5 

7.1 

9.8 

21.8 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

CAS 

8.033 

3.843 

11.881 

3.969 

1.090 

3.060 

16.940 

0.463 

0.057 

0.000 

0.522 

17.462 

DSL 

0.065 

0.055 

0.119 

0.102 

0.017 

0.118 

0.238 

0.199 

0.127 

0.123 

0.449 

0.687 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

29.9 

32.5 

30.7 

22.0 

23.7 

22.7 

28.4 

ROAD 

MPC 

24.3 

26.3 

25.0 

18.6 

21.4 

19.2 

23.4 

13.9 

8.2 

6.7 

9.1 

20.4 

CAS 

98.822 

44.103 

142.925 

48.335 

13.001 

61.335 

204.460 

5.679 

0.904 

0.002 

6.586 

211.043 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IR MILLIONS) 

DSL 

0.667 

0.612 

1.279 

1.180 

0.291 

1.471 

2.750 

2.035 

1.331 

1.470 

4.835 

7.583 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

99.488 

44.715 

144.204 

49.714 

13.292 

63.006 

207.210 

7.714 

2.235 

1.472 

11.421 

218.630 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT HVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY HVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

OFF-HWY GAS 

BWYtOFF-BWY CAS 

1267.49 

584.07 

1851.57 

432.22 

117.92 

350.13 

2401.70 

105.18 

69.12 

78.40 

252.70 

2654.40 

LEADED 

4.702 

1.952 

6.654 

2.474 

0.500 

2.973 

9.628 

1.000 

1.786 

0.002 

2.788 

12.415 

2.838 

13.254 

UNLEADED 

45.097 

19.257 

64.354 

19.527 

4.749 

24.276 

88.630 

4.649 

0.000 

0.000 

4.649 

93.279 

1.026 

94.305 

TOTAL 

GAS 

49.799 

21.209 

71.008 

22.001 

5.249 

27.249 

98.258 

5.648 

1.786 

0.002 

7.437 

105.694 

3.864 

109.338 

(IR BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.257 

0.223 

0.483 

0.403 

0.074 

0.478 

0.960 

1.698 

6.527 

11.720 

19.944 

20.905 

BLEND BLEND HEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.798 

0.340 

1.138 

0.353 

0.084 

0.439 

1.578 

0.093 

0.038 

0.000 

0.132 

1.709 

0.930 

0.403 

1.333 

0.435 

0.100 

0.333 

1.888 

0.126 

0.096 

0.000 

0.222 

2.110 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.930 

0.403 

1.333 

0.433 

0.100 

0.535 

1.888 

0.126 

0.096 

0.000 

0.222 

2.110 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

51.805 

22.177 

73.982 

23.194 

5.507 

28.701 

102.684 

7.563 

8.448 

11.722 

27.733 

130.419 

MKB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.38 

1.43 

4.83 

1.51 

0.36 

1.87 

6.70 

0.49 

0.55 

0.76 

1.81 

8.51 

0.25 

7.15 

B-16 
P.81 

1999 

NEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MRS HVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL HVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

EPA 

MPG 

31.3 

33.0 

32.0 

23.3 

26.1 

24.0 

29.7 

...... 

...... 

ROAD 

MPG 

26.6 

27.6 

26.9 

19.8 

21.7 

20.2 

23.0 

14.9 

8.3 

7.1 

9.8 

21.7 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

GAS 

8.031 

3.942 

11.973 

4.073 

1.119 

3.192 

17.163 

0.477 

0.039 

0.000 

0.535 

17.700 

DSL 

0.069 

0.038 

0.127 

0.104 

0.017 

0.121 

0.248 

0.204 

0.130 

0.126 

0.461 

0.709 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

30.3 

32.6 

31.0 

22.3 

25.8 

22.9 

28.6 

...... 

...... 

...... 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

24.7 

26.4 

25.2 

18.8 

21.4 

19.3 

23.6 

14.1 

8.3 

6.8 

9.2 

20.3 

CAS 

99.978 

43.315 

145.293 

30.156 

13.322 

63.678 

208.971 

3.822 

0.880 

0.002 

6.703 

213.674 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IN MILLIONS) 

DSL 

0.637 

0.616 

1.273 

1.229 

0.289 

1.318 

2.791 

2.154 

1.382 

1.495 

3.031 

7.822 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

100.634 

43.932 

146.566 

31.385 

13.810 

65.196 

211.762 

7.976 

2.262 

1.497 

11.734 

223.496 

VMT 

(IN BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV • LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

OFF-HWY CAS 

BWY&OFF-HWY CAS 

1283.19 

598.71 

1881.90 

447.25 

122.01 

569.25 

2451.15 

108.75 

71.36 

80.49 

260.60 

2711.75 

LEADED UNLEADED 

4.698 

1.979 

6.676 

2.445 

0.514 

2.960 

9.636 

0.909 

1.763 

0.001 

2.674 

12.310 

2.838 

15.146 

45.204 

19.699 

64.903 

20.092 

4.910 

25.002 

89.905 

4.842 

0.000 

0.000 

4.842 

94.747 

1.026 

95.772 

TOTAL 

GAS 

49.902 

21.678 

71.579 

22.537 

5.424 

27.961 

99.540 

5.751 

1.763 

0.001 

7.516 

107.056 

3.864 

110.920 

(IR BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

DSL 

0.261 

0.232 

0.493 

0.416 

0.074 

0.490 

0.983 

1.735 

6.741 

11.906 

20.403 

21.387 

BLEND BLEND HEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL MBTH 

0.800 

0.347 

1.147 

0.363 

0.087 

0.430 

1.598 

0.094 

0.038 

0.000 

0.132 

1.730 

0.952 

0.411 

1.363 

0.442 

0.104 

0.546 

1.908 

0.124 

0.095 

0.000 

0.219 

2.127 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.932 

0.411 

1.363 

0.442 

0.104 

0.346 

1.908 

0.124 

0.095 

0.000 

0.219 

2.127 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

51.915 

22.667 

74.582 

23.739 

5.689 

29.448 

104.030 

7.723 

8.637 

11.908 

28.270 

132.300 

MKB/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.39 

1.48 

4.86 

1.35 

0.37 

1.92 

6.79 

0.30 

0.36 

0.78 

1.84 

8.63 

0.23 

7.24 

B-17 
2000 

HEW FLEET 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOTAL LDV + LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

BVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL HIGHWAY 

BPA 

MFC 

31.3 

33-0 

32.0 

23.3 

26.1 

24.0 

29.7 

...... 

... 

ROAD 

MPC 

26.6 

27.6 

26.9 

19.8 

21.7 

20.2 

23.0 

14.9 

8.3 

7.1 

9.8 

21.7 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IB «LLIOHS) 

CAS 

8.027 

4.038 

12.066 

4.176 

1.148 

3.323 

17.389 

0.489 

0.060 

0.000 

0.549 

17.938 

DSL 

0.073 

0.061 

0.134 

0.107 

0.017 

0.123 

0.259 

0.210 

0.134 

0.129 

0.473 

0.732 

MTB 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

EPA 

MPC 

30.3 

32.7 

31.2 

22.5 

23.8 

23.1 

28.8 

...... 

ROAD 

MPC 

24.9 

26.3 

23.4 

19.0 

21.3 

19.3 

23.7 

14.2 

8.3 

6.8 

9.3 

20.6 

GAS 

101.133 

46.305 

147.638 

91.803 

14.031 

65.836 

213.474 

3.965 

0.863 

0.001 

6.829 

220.303 

REGISTRATIONS 

(IR MILLIONS) 

DSL 

0.632 

0.626 

1.278 

1.278 

0.286 

1.364 

2.842 

f 2.2891 

i 1.433 

liiSSUL 

TJST223I 

8.063 

MTH 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

101.783 

47.131 

148.916 

33.082 

14.318 

67.400 

216.316 

8.234 

2.295 

1.523 

12.052 

228.368 

VMT 

(IR BILLIONS) 

PA DOM 

PA IMP 

TOTAL LDV 

TRUCK DOM 0-8.5 

TRUCK IMP 0-8.5 

TOTAL LDT 

TOT.AL LDV -r LDT 

LT BVY TRUCKS 

MED BVY TRUCKS 

HVY BVY TRUCKS 

TOTAL BVY TRUCK 

TOTAL BICBWAY 

OFF-BWY GAS 

HWYIOFF-BWY GAS 

1298.21 

613.86 

1912.07 

462.32 

126.18 

588.50 

2500.57 

112.27 

73.86 

82.75 

268.89 

2769.46 

LEADED UNLEADED TOTAL 

4.711 

2.017 

6.728 

2.433 

0.530 

2.964 

9.693 

0.832 

1.756 

O.OOI 

2.590 

12.282 

2.838 

13.121 

43.377 

20.134 

63.532 

20.660 

5.073 

25.732 

91.264 

5.033 

0.000 

0.000 

3.033 

96.297 

1.026 

97.323 

CAS 

30.089 

22.171 

72.260 

23.094 

3.603 

28.697 

100.937 

5.865 

1.756 

0.001 

7.622 

108.580 

3.864 

112.443 

(IR BILLIONS OF GALLONS) 

OSL 

0.268 

0.239 

f?>T0.428 

0.074 

£M 

1.009 

S^Oini] 

I 6.979 

112.133 | 

20.923 

21.932 

BLEND BLERD HEAT 

ETHANOL METHANOL METH 

0.803 

0.335 

v 1.158 

0.372 

0.090 

0.462 

1.620 

0.096 

0.038 

0.000 

0.134 

1.753 

0.955 

0.420 

1.373 

0.450 

0.107 

0.557 

1.932 

0.123 

0.094 

0.000 

0.217 

2.149 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

0.000 

TOTAL 

METH 

0.955 

0.420 

1.373 

0.430 

0.107 

0.357 

1.932 

0.123 

0.094 

0.000 

0.217 

2.149 

TOTAL 

W/ALC 

32.114 

23.186 

73.300 

24.344 

5.874 

30.218 

105.518 

7.894 

8.868 

12.134 

28.896 

134.414 

M O/ 

DAY 

TOTAL 

3.40 

1.51 

4.91 

1.59 

0.38 

1.97 

6.88 

0.51 

0.58 

0.79 

1.88 

8.77 

0.25 

7.33 

B-18 
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