Table of Contents 

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Table of Contents 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

Introduction.............................................................................................................. ES-1 

Why Is This Plan Being Prepared? .......................................................................... ES-2 

What Is New in This Plan Revision? ....................................................................... ES-2 

How Was This Plan Revision Prepared? ................................................................. ES-3 

Is Air Quality Improving?........................................................................................ ES-4 

What Are the Applicable Key Federal and State Requirements 

 That This Plan Revision Addresses? ................................................. ES-6 

How Has the Emissions Inventory Changed?.......................................................... ES-6 

Has the Overall Control Strategy Changed Significantly?...................................... ES-7 

What Other Requirements Are Addressed in This Plan? ........................................ ES-7 

What Considerations Have Been Made for the New Federal 

 Standards for Particulate Matter and Ozone? .................................... ES-8 

What are the Challenges of Attainment? ................................................................. ES-8 

Has the Attainment Projection Changed for Federal or State Standards?............... ES-8 

1. INTRODUCTION 

Purpose........................................................................................................................1-1 

Constraints in Achieving Standards............................................................................1-2 

 Setting ..............................................................................................................1-2 

 Emission Sources.............................................................................................1-4 

 Population ........................................................................................................1-4 

Control Efforts ............................................................................................................1-5 

 History..............................................................................................................1-5 

 Impact of Control.............................................................................................1-6 

Progress in Implementing the 1997/1999 SIPs...........................................................1-7 

2003 AQMP Revision...............................................................................................1-13 

 Federal Clean Air Act Planning Requirements .............................................1-13 

 General Requirements....................................................................................1-13 

 CAA Planning Requirements Addressed by the 2003 AQMP..............1-16 

 State Law Requirements ................................................................................1-19 

 Plan Effectiveness..................................................................................1-21 

 Emission Reductions.............................................................................1-22 

 Population Exposure..............................................................................1-23 

 Control Measure Ranking......................................................................1-23 

Format of This Document.........................................................................................1-24 
Final 2003 AQMP 

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2. AIR QUALITY AND HEALTH EFFECTS 

Introduction.................................................................................................................2-1 

Ambient Air Quality Standards ..................................................................................2-1 

Comparison to Other U.S. Areas ................................................................................2-1 

Current Air Quality Summary ....................................................................................2-5 

 Ozone (O3) Specific Information.....................................................................2-8 

 Health Effects ..........................................................................................2-8 

 Air Quality...............................................................................................2-8 

 Carbon Monoxide (CO) Specific Information...............................................2-12 

 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-12 

 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-12 

 Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2.5) Specific Information ............................2-14 

 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-14 

 Air Quality, PM10 ..................................................................................2-14 

 Air Quality, PM2.5..................................................................................2-15 

 Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) Specific Information ..............................................2-18 

 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-18 

 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-18 

 Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Specific Information ...................................................2-19 

 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-19 

 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-19 

 Sulfates (SO4) Specific Information ..............................................................2-20 

 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-20 

 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-21 

 Lead (Pb) Specific Information .....................................................................2-21 

 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-21 

 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-22 

 Summary ........................................................................................................2-22 

3. BASE YEAR AND FUTURE EMISSIONS 

Introduction.................................................................................................................3-1 

Emissions Inventories .................................................................................................3-2 

 Stationary Sources ...........................................................................................3-2 

 Mobile Sources ................................................................................................3-2 

 Gridded Emissions...........................................................................................3-3 

Base Year Emissions...................................................................................................3-5 

 Reconstructed 1990 Emission Inventories.......................................................3-5 

 1997 Emission Inventory.................................................................................3-5 

Future Emissions.........................................................................................................3-9 

 Data Development ...........................................................................................3-9 

 Summary of Baseline Emissions ...................................................................3-10 
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 Contributions by Responsible Agencies........................................................3-15 

 The Impact of Growth....................................................................................3-19 

4. AQMP CONTROL STRATEGY 

Introduction.................................................................................................................4-1 

Overall Attainment Strategy .......................................................................................4-1 

 Designing the Overall Strategy........................................................................4-2 

 2003 AQMP Control Measures .......................................................................4-3 

District's Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures........................................4-4 

 Stationary Source Control Methods and Associated Emission 

 Reductions ...............................................................................................4-8 

 Coatings and Solvents .............................................................................4-9 

 Petroleum Operations and Fugitive VOC Emissions............................4-10 

 Combustion Sources..............................................................................4-10 

 Fugitive Dust Sources ...........................................................................4-11 

 Miscellaneous Sources ..........................................................................4-12 

 Compliance Flexibility Programs..........................................................4-16 

 District's Mobile Source Control Measures...........................................4-17 

Southern California Association of Governments' (SCAG'S) Regional 

Transportation Strategy and Control Measures .............................................4-18 

 Transportation Control Measure Development.....................................4-20 

 Transportation Control Methods Objectives .........................................4-21 

State and Federal Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures ........................4-24 

 State Strategy .................................................................................................4-25 

 Set Technology-Forcing New Engine Standards ..................................4-26 

 Reduce Emissions from the In-Use Fleet ..............................................4-26 

 Require Clean Fuels, Support Alternative Fuels and Reduce 

 Petroleum Dependency .........................................................................4-27 

 Work with U.S. EPA to Reduce Emissions from Federal and State 

 Sources..................................................................................................4-27 

 Pursue Long-Term Advanced Technologies Measures ........................4-28 

 Summary................................................................................................4-29 

District, State, and Federal Long-Term Control Strategy........................................4-32 

 District's Portion of Long-Term Strategy ......................................................4-35 

 CARB's Portion of Long-Term Strategy .......................................................4-37 

 Federal Responsibility Under Long-Term Strategy ......................................4-40 

 Emissions Contribution .........................................................................4-41 

 Federal Actions to Meet Emission Reduction Targets..........................4-42 

 Suggested Strategies from AQMP Advisory Technical Subcommittee........4-44 

 Accelerate Penetration and Use of Existing Technologies ...................4-44 

 Demand-Side Strategies ........................................................................4-45 

 Accelerated Retirement of Older High-Emitting Vehicles ...................4-45 
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 Clean Communities Concept.................................................................4-45 

 Smog Check Improvements ..................................................................4-46 

 Remove Disincentives on Voluntary Measures ....................................4-46 

 Expand Fleet Rules to private Fleets.....................................................4-46 

 Modify Stationary Source Monitoring Requirements...........................4-46 

 Add Flexibility to Current Programs.....................................................4-46 

 Educational Programs............................................................................4-47 

 Control of Emissions from Port Operations..........................................4-47 

 Emissions Bubbles at Ports and Airports ..............................................4-48 

 Consumer Products................................................................................4-48 

 Advanced Technologies.................................................................................4-48 

 Fuel Cells/Advanced Battery Technologies..........................................4-48 

 Electric & Hybrid-Electric Heavy-Duty Vehicles.................................4-50 

 Marine Vessels and Portside Equipment...............................................4-51 

 Advanced Engine and Aftertreatment Technologies ............................4-52 

 Renewable Power Generation Technologies.........................................4-53 

 Advanced Low-VOC Technologies ......................................................4-54 

 Innovative Control Approaches.....................................................................4-56 

 Market Incentive Programs ...................................................................4-56 

 Reactivity-Based Controls.....................................................................4-57 

 Localized Controls.................................................................................4-57 

 Public Awareness and Education Programs..........................................4-57 

 District's SIP Emission Commitment ............................................................4-58 

 SIP Emission Reduction Tracking ........................................................4-58 

 Reductions from Adopted Rules ...........................................................4-59 

 Reductions from District's Stationary Control Measures......................4-59 

Overall Emission Reductions....................................................................................4-63 

5. FUTURE AIR QUALITY 

Introduction.................................................................................................................5-1 

Modeling Approach ....................................................................................................5-2 

 PM10 .................................................................................................................5-2 

 AQMP Modeling Approach ....................................................................5-3 

 Ozone ...............................................................................................................5-4 

 Carbon Monoxide ............................................................................................5-7 

 Visibility ..........................................................................................................5-8 

Future Air Quality.......................................................................................................5-8 

 PM10 .................................................................................................................5-8 

 Ozone ...............................................................................................................5-9 

 Control Strategy Impacts.......................................................................5-12 

 Carbon Monoxide ..........................................................................................5-18 

 Visibility ........................................................................................................5-20 
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Summary and Conclusions .......................................................................................5-20 

Basin Emissions Carrying Capacity (Emissions Budget).........................................5-23 

Projected Emission Trends Through 2010 ...............................................................5-24 

6. CLEAN AIR ACT REQUIREMENTS 

Introduction.................................................................................................................6-1 

Federal Clean Air Act Requirements..........................................................................6-1 

 PM10 Planning Requirements .........................................................................6-1 

 Current PM10 Requirements...................................................................6-2 

 Ozone Planning Requirements.........................................................................6-5 

 Post-1996 VOC rate-of-progress requirements.......................................6-6 

 Ozone Attainment Demonstration...........................................................6-9 

 Contingency Measures ..........................................................................6-10 

 Average Vehicle Occupancy Requirements (AVO) .............................6-10 

 Carbon Monoxide Attainment Demonstration ..............................................6-10 

 Nitrogen Dioxide Maintenance Plan .............................................................6-11 

 Transportation Conformity Budgets..............................................................6-12 

California Clean Air Act Requirements....................................................................6-17 

 Plan Effectiveness..........................................................................................6-17 

 Emission Reductions......................................................................................6-19 

 Population Exposure ......................................................................................6-20 

 Ozone.....................................................................................................6-21 

 Carbon Monoxide..................................................................................6-23 

 Cost Effectiveness Ranking...........................................................................6-23 

7. IMPLEMENTATION 

Introduction.................................................................................................................7-1 

Responsible Agencies .................................................................................................7-1 

Control Measures ........................................................................................................7-3 

 Control Measure Ranking................................................................................7-3 

 Federal Agencies..............................................................................................7-3 

 CARB...............................................................................................................7-3 

 District............................................................................................................7-11 

 Transportation Control Measures ..................................................................7-11 

 Local Governments and SCAG.............................................................7-12 

 Congestion Management Program (CMP) Linkage to the AQMP .......7-12 

 Southern California Economic Partnership (The Partnership)..............7-13 

Technology Advancement ........................................................................................7-14 

 SCAQMD Clean Fuels Program - Technology Advancement Plan .............7-15 

 Alternative Fuels - Incentives Program.................................................7-18 

 Alternative Fuels - On-Road .................................................................7-19 
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 Alternative Fuels - Infrastructure ..........................................................7-19 

 Fuel Cell Technologies..........................................................................7-20 

 Electric and Hybrid Electric Technologies ...........................................7-20 

 Alternative Fuels - Off-Road Applications ...........................................7-20 

 Stationary Sources.................................................................................7-21 

Implementation Support Activities...........................................................................7-21 

 District Assistance and Outreach Programs...................................................7-22 

 Business Assistance .......................................................................................7-22 

 SCAG Assistance...........................................................................................7-23 

Monitoring .............................................................................................................7-23 

8. FUTURE AIR QUALITY - DESERT NONATTAINMENT AREAS 

Introduction.................................................................................................................8-1 

Statement of Problem..................................................................................................8-1 

 Regulatory Requirements ................................................................................8-2 

 Population Growth...........................................................................................8-2 

 Pollutant Transport ..........................................................................................8-4 

 Trends in Ozone Air Quality ...........................................................................8-6 

Attainment Demonstration..........................................................................................8-7 

Post-1996 VOC Rate-of-Progress Requirements ......................................................8-8 

Summary of Coachella Valley PM10 Plan ................................................................8-10 

 Introduction....................................................................................................8-10 

 Background....................................................................................................8-10 

 2002 CVSIP ...................................................................................................8-11 

 2003 CVSIP ...................................................................................................8-12 

Conclusions...............................................................................................................8-12 

9. CONTINGENCY MEASURES 

Introduction.................................................................................................................9-1 

Contingency Measures...............................................................................................9-1 

10. LOOKING BEYOND CURRENT REQUIREMENTS 

Introduction...............................................................................................................10-1

Uncertainties Associated with the Technical Analysis.............................................10-1 

A First Look at the Year 2020 Ozone Air Quality ...................................................10-4 

New Federal Air Quality Standards for Ozone and Fine Particulates......................10-4 

 What are the Health Concerns? .....................................................................10-5 

 Ozone.....................................................................................................10-5 

 Particulate Matter ..................................................................................10-6 

 What is the New Federal Ozone Standard? ...................................................10-6 
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 What are the New Federal PM Standard?......................................................10-7 

 Implementation of the New Federal Standards .............................................10-7 

 Assessment of the New Federal Standards....................................................10-8 

 Ozone.....................................................................................................10-8 

 Particulate Matter ..................................................................................10-9 

New State PM Air Quality Standards .....................................................................10-10 

GLOSSARY.......................................................................................................................G-1 

APPENDIX I HEALTH EFFECTS 

APPENDIX II CURRENT AIR QUALITY 

APPENDIX III BASE AND FUTURE YEAR EMISSION INVENTORIES 

APPENDIX IV-A DISTRICT'S STATIONARY AND MOBILE SOURCE CONTROL 

MEASURES 

APPENDIX IV-B PROPOSED 2003 STATE AND FEDERAL STRATEGY FOR 

THE CALIFORNIA STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN 

APPENDIX IV-C REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION STRATEGY AND CONTROL 

MEASURES 

APPENDIX V MODELING AND ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATIONS