Table of Contents

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## Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction .............................................................................................................. ES-1 Why Is This Plan Be ing Prepared ? .......................................................................... ES-2 What Is New in This Plan Revisi on? ....................................................................... ES -2 How Was This Plan Revi sion Prepared? ................................................................. ES-3 Is Air Quality Improving? ........................................................................................ ES-4 What Are the Applicable Key Federal and State Requirements That This Plan Revi sion Addresses? ................................................. ES-6 How Has the Emissions I nventory Changed?.......................................................... ES-6 Has the Overall Control Strategy Changed Significantly?...................................... ES-7 What Other Requirements Are Addr essed in This Plan? ........................................ ES-7 What Considerations Have Been Made for the New Federal Standards for Particulat e Matter and Ozone? .................................... ES-8 What are the Challenges of Attainment? ................................................................. ES-8 Has the Attainment Projection Changed fo r Federal or State Standards?............... ES-8



### 1. INTRODUCTION

Purpose........................................................................................................................ 1-1 Constraints in Achiev ing Standards............................................................................1-2 Setting ..............................................................................................................1-2 Emission S ources.............................................................................................1-4 Populatio n ........................................................................................................1-4 Control Effo rts ............................................................................................................1-5 History..............................................................................................................1-5 Impact of Control.............................................................................................1-6 Progress in Implementi ng the 1997/1999 SIPs...........................................................1-7 2003 AQMP Revi sion...............................................................................................1-13 Federal Clean Air Act Pl anning Require ments .............................................1-13 General Requi rements....................................................................................1-13 CAA Planning Requirements Addressed by th e 2003 AQMP..............1-16 State Law Requi rements ................................................................................1-19 Plan Effec tiveness..................................................................................1-21 Emission Re ductions .............................................................................1-22 Population Exposure ..............................................................................1-23 Control Meas ure Ranki ng...................................................................... 1-23 Format of This Docume nt.........................................................................................1-24Final 2003 AQMP

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### 2. AIR QUALITY AND HEALTH EFFECTS

Introductio n.................................................................................................................2- 1 Ambient Air Quality Standards ..................................................................................2-1 Comparison to Othe r U.S. Areas ................................................................................2-1 Current Air Qua lity Summary ....................................................................................2-5 Ozone (O 3 ) Specific Information.....................................................................2-8 Health Effects ..........................................................................................2-8 Air Quality...............................................................................................2-8 Carbon Monoxide (CO) Sp ecific Information...............................................2-12 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-12 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-12 Particulate Matter (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) Specific Information ............................2-14 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-14 Air Quality, PM 10 ..................................................................................2-14 Air Quality, PM 2.5 ..................................................................................2-15 Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ) Specific Information ..............................................2-18 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-18 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-18 Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Specific Information ...................................................2-19 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-19 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-19 Sulfates (SO 4 ) Specific Information ..............................................................2-20 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-20 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-21 Lead (Pb) Specifi c Information .....................................................................2-21 Health Effects ........................................................................................2-21 Air Quality.............................................................................................2-22 Summary ........................................................................................................2-22



### 3. BASE YEAR AND FUTURE EMISSIONS

Introductio n.................................................................................................................3- 1 Emissions Inventories .................................................................................................3-2 Stationary Sources ...........................................................................................3-2 Mobile Sources ................................................................................................3-2 Gridded Em issions...........................................................................................3-3 Base Year Emissions...................................................................................................3-5 Reconstructed 1990 Emi ssion Inventor ies.......................................................3-5 1997 Emission I nventory .................................................................................3-5 Future Emissions.........................................................................................................3-9 Data Development ...........................................................................................3-9 Summary of Base line Emissi ons ................................................................... 3-10Table of Contents

iii Contributions by Res ponsible Agen cies........................................................3-15 The Impact of Growth....................................................................................3-19



### 4. AQMP CONTROL STRATEGY

Introductio n.................................................................................................................4- 1 Overall Attainment Strategy .......................................................................................4-1 Designing the Overa ll Strategy........................................................................4-2 2003 AQMP Control Measures .......................................................................4-3 District's Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures........................................4-4 Stationary Source Control Me thods and Associated Emission Reducti ons ...............................................................................................4-8 Coatings a nd Solven ts .............................................................................4-9 Petroleum Operations a nd Fugitive VOC Emissions............................4-10 Combustion Sources ..............................................................................4-10 Fugitive DustSource s ...........................................................................4-11 Miscellaneous Source s ..........................................................................4-12 Compliance Flexib ility Programs..........................................................4-16 District's Mobile Sour ce Control Measures...........................................4-17 Southern California Association of Governments' (SCAG'S) Regional Transportation Strategy and Control Me asures .............................................4-18 Transportation Control Measure Development.....................................4-20 Transportation Control Methods Obj ectives .........................................4-21 State and Federal Stationary and M obile Source Control Measures ........................4-24 State Strategy .................................................................................................4-25 Set Technology-Forcing Ne w Engine Sta ndards ..................................4-26 Reduce Emissions from the In-Use Fleet ..............................................4-26 Require Clean Fuels, Support Alternative Fuels and Reduce Petr oleum Depende ncy .........................................................................4-27 Work with U.S. EPA to Reduce Emissions from Federal and State Sources..................................................................................................4-27 Pursue Long-Term AdvancedTechnologies Measures ........................4-28 Summary................................................................................................4-29 District, State, and Federal Long-Term Contro l Strategy........................................4-32 District's Portion of Long-Term Strategy ......................................................4-35 CARB's Portion of L ong-Term Stra tegy .......................................................4-37 Federal Responsibility Unde r Long-Term Strategy ......................................4-40 Emissions C ontributio n .........................................................................4-41 Federal Actions to Meet Emission Reduction Targets..........................4-42 Suggested Strategies from AQMP Advi sory Technical Subcommittee........4-44 Accelerate Penetration and Us e of Existing Technologies ...................4-44 Demand-Side Strategies ........................................................................4-45 Accelerated Retirement of Older High-Emitting Vehicles ...................4-45Final 2003 AQMP

iv Clean Communitie s Concept.................................................................4-45 Smog Check Improvements ..................................................................4-46 Remove Disincentives on Voluntary Me asures ....................................4-46 Expand Fleet Rules to private Fleets.....................................................4-46 Modify Stationary Source Monitoring Requi rements...........................4-46 Add Flexibility to Current Progr ams.....................................................4-46 Educational Programs............................................................................4-47 Control of Emissions from Port Oper ations ..........................................4-47 Emissions Bubbles at Ports and Ai rports ..............................................4-48 Consumer Products ................................................................................4-48 Advanced T echnologies .................................................................................4-48 Fuel Cells/Advanced Ba ttery Technol ogies..........................................4-48 Electric & Hybrid-Electric Heavy-Duty Vehicles.................................4-50 Marine Vessels and Po rtside Equi pment...............................................4-51 Advanced Engine and Afte rtreatment Technologies ............................4-52 Renewable Power Gene ration Technol ogies.........................................4-53 Advanced Low-VOC Technologi es ......................................................4-54 Innovative Control Approach es.....................................................................4-56 Market Incentiv e Program s ...................................................................4-56 Reactivity-BasedContro ls.....................................................................4-57 Localized C ontrols .................................................................................4-57 Public Awareness and E ducation Progr ams..........................................4-57 District's SIP Emi ssion Commitment ............................................................4-58 SIP Emission Reduc tion Trackin g ........................................................4-58 Reductions from A dopted Rule s ...........................................................4-59 Reductions from District's Stationary Control Measures......................4-59 Overall Emission Reductions ....................................................................................4-63



### 5. FUTURE AIR QUALITY

Introductio n.................................................................................................................5- 1 Modeling Appr oach ....................................................................................................5-2 PM 10 .................................................................................................................5-2 AQMP Modeling Approach ....................................................................5-3 Ozone ...............................................................................................................5-4 Carbon M onoxide ............................................................................................ 5-7 Visibility ..........................................................................................................5-8 Future Air Qu ality.......................................................................................................5-8 PM 10 .................................................................................................................5-8 Ozone ...............................................................................................................5-9 Control Strate gy Impacts.......................................................................5-12 Carbon M onoxide .......................................................................................... 5-18 Visib ility ........................................................................................................5-20Table of Contents

v Summary and C onclusions .......................................................................................5-20 Basin Emissions Carrying Cap acity (Emissions Budget) .........................................5-23 Projected Emission Tr ends Thr ough 2010 ...............................................................5-24



### 6. CLEAN AIR ACT REQUIREMENTS

Introductio n.................................................................................................................6- 1 Federal Clean Air Ac t Requirements..........................................................................6-1 PM10 Planning Requi rements .........................................................................6-1 Current PM10 Requi rements...................................................................6-2 Ozone Planning Requi rements.........................................................................6-5 Post-1996 VOC rate-of-pr ogress requirements.......................................6-6 Ozone Attainment Demonstration...........................................................6-9 Contingency Measures ..........................................................................6-10 Average Vehicle Occupancy Requirement s (AVO) .............................6-10 Carbon Monoxide Attainme nt Demonstration ..............................................6-10 Nitrogen Dioxide Ma intenance Plan .............................................................6-11 Transportation Conf ormity B udgets..............................................................6-12 California Clean Air Ac t Requireme nts....................................................................6-17 Plan Effectiveness..........................................................................................6-17 Emission Re ductions ......................................................................................6-19 Population E xposure ......................................................................................6-20 Ozone .....................................................................................................6-21 Carbon M onoxide.................................................................................. 6-23 Cost Effectiven ess Ranki ng........................................................................... 6-23



### 7. IMPLEMENTATION

Introductio n.................................................................................................................7- 1 Responsible Ag encies .................................................................................................7-1 Control Meas ures ........................................................................................................7-3 Control Measur e Ranking ................................................................................7-3 Federal Agencies..............................................................................................7-3 CARB ...............................................................................................................7-3 District............................................................................................................7-11 Transportation Cont rol Measures ..................................................................7-11 Local Governme nts and SC AG.............................................................7-12 Congestion Management Program (CMP) Linkage to the AQMP .......7-12 Southern California Economic Partnership (The Partnership)..............7-13 Technology Advan cement ........................................................................................7-14 SCAQMD Clean Fuels Program - Technology Advancement Plan .............7-15 Alternative Fuels - Incentives Program.................................................7-18 Alternative Fuel s - On-Road .................................................................7-19Final 2003 AQMP

vi Alternative Fuels - Infrastructure ..........................................................7-19 Fuel Cell T echnologies ..........................................................................7-20 Electric and Hybrid El ectric Technol ogies ...........................................7-20 Alternative Fuels - O ff-Road Applic ations ...........................................7-20 Stationary Sources .................................................................................7-21 Implementation Suppor t Activities...........................................................................7-21 District Assistance and Outreach Pr ograms ...................................................7-22 Business Assistance .......................................................................................7-22 SCAG Assist ance...........................................................................................7-23 Monitori ng ............................................................................................................. 7-23



### 8. FUTURE AIR QUALITY - DESERT NONATTAINMENT AREAS

Introductio n.................................................................................................................8- 1 Statement of Problem..................................................................................................8-1 Regulatory Requi rements ................................................................................8-2 Population Growth...........................................................................................8-2 Pollutant Tr ansport ..........................................................................................8-4 Trends in Ozone Air Quality ...........................................................................8-6 Attainment Demonstration..........................................................................................8-7 Post-1996 VOC Rate-of-Progr ess Requirements ......................................................8-8 Summary of Coachella Valley PM 10 Plan ................................................................8-10 Introductio n....................................................................................................8-10 Backgr ound.................................................................................................... 8-10 2002 CVSI P ...................................................................................................8-11 2003 CVSI P ...................................................................................................8-12 Conclusi ons............................................................................................................... 8-12



### 9. CONTINGENCY MEASURES

Introductio n.................................................................................................................9- 1 Contingency Measures...............................................................................................9-1



### 10. LOOKING BEYOND CURRENT REQUIREMENTS

Introductio n...............................................................................................................10-1 Uncertainties Associated with the Technical Analysis.............................................10-1 A First Look at the Year 2020 Ozone Air Quality ...................................................10-4 New Federal Air Quality Standards fo r Ozone and Fine Particulates......................10-4 What are the Hea lth Concerns? .....................................................................10-5 Ozone .....................................................................................................10-5 Particulate Matter ..................................................................................10-6 What is the New Federa l Ozone Sta ndard? ...................................................10-6Table of Contents

vii What are the New Fede ral PM Sta ndard? ......................................................10-7 Implementation of the Ne w Federal Standards .............................................10-7 Assessment of the New Federal Standards ....................................................10-8 Ozone .....................................................................................................10-8 Particulate Matter ..................................................................................10-9 New State PM Air Qua lity Standard s .....................................................................10-10



### GLOSSARY .......................................................................................................................G-1



### APPENDIX I HEALTH EFFECTS



### APPENDIX II CURRENT AIR QUALITY



### APPENDIX III BASE AND FUTURE YEAR EMISSION INVENTORIES



### APPENDIX IV-A DISTRICT'S STATIONARY AND MOBILE SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES



### APPENDIX IV-B PROPOSED 2003 STATE AND FEDERAL STRATEGY FOR THE CALIFORNIA STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN



### APPENDIX IV-C REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION STRATEGY AND CONTROL MEASURES



### APPENDIX V MODELING AND ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATIONS