***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xix LIST OF FIGURES Figure ES - 1. Analytical Flowchart for Primary Standards Analyses ................................ .......... 5 Figure ES - 2. Projected Ozone Design Values in the 2025 Baseline Scenario ............................. 7 Figure ES - 3. Projected Ozone Design Values in the post - 2025 Baseline Scenario ................... 10 Figure 2 - 1. Map of U.S. ambient O3 monitoring sites reporting data to EPA during the 2009 - 2013 period. ................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 7 Figure 2 - 2. Trend in U.S. Annual 4 th Highest Daily Maximum 8 - hour Ozone Concentrations in ppb, 2000 to 2013. Solid center line represents the median value across monit oring sites, dashed lines represent 25th and 75th percentile values, and top/bottom lines represent 10th and 90th percentile values. ................................ ................ 8 Figure 2 - 3. Map of 8 - hour Ozone Design Values in ppb, Averaged across the 2009 - 2011, 2010 - 2012, and 2011 - 2013 Periods ................................ ................................ ........... 9 F igure 2 - 4. Trend in U.S. Annual W126 Concentrations in ppm - hrs, 2000 to 2013 Solid center line represents the median value across monitoring sites, dashed lines represent 25th and 75th percentile values, and top/bottom lines represent 10th and 90th percent ile values. ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 10 Figure 2 - 5. Map of 3 - year Average W126 Values in ppm - hrs, Averaged Across the 2009 - 2011, 2010 - 2012, and 2011 - 2013 Periods ................................ ................................ 11 Figure 2 - 6. Map of 2007 CMAQ - estimated Seasonal Mean of 8 - hour Daily Maximum Ozone from Natural Background (ppb) bas ed on Zero - Out Modeling .............................. 14 Figure 2 - 7. Map of 2007 CMAQ - estimated Seasonal Mean of 8 - hour Daily Maximum Ozone from North American Background (ppb) based on Zero - out Modeling ................ 15 Figure 2 - 8. Map of 2007 CMAQ - estimated Seasonal Mean of 8 - hour Daily Maximum Oz one from United States Background (ppb) based on Zero - Out Modeling .................... 15 Figure 2 - 8. Map of Site - Specific Ratios of U.S. Background to Total Seasonal Mean Ozone based on 2007 CMAQ Zero - Out Modeling ................................ ............................ 18 Figure 2 - 9. Map of Site - Specific Ratios of Apportionment - B ased U.S. Background to Seasonal Mean Ozone based on 2007 CAMx Source Apportionment Modeling ............. 18 Figure 2 - 10. Distributions of Absolute Estimates of Apportionment - Based U.S. Background (all site - days), Binned by Modeled MDA8 from the 2007 Source Apportionment Simulation ................................ ................................ ................................ . 19***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xx Figure 2 - 11. Distributions of the Relative Proportion of Apportionment - Based U.S. Background to Total Ozone (all site - days), Binned by Modeled MDA8 from the 2007 Source Apportionment Simulation ................................ ................................ ........... 19 Figure 3 - 1. Map of the CAMx Mod eling Domain Used for Ozone NAAQS RIA ................... 4 Figure 3 - 2. Map of Counties for Which Explicit Emissions Controls Were Identified and Modeled in CAMx (shaded in orange) and Counties that Contained One or More Monitor Projected above 70 ppb in the 2025 Base Case Mo deling (shaded in blue). ....... 12 Figure 3 - 3. Five U.S. Regions Used to Create Across - the - Board Emissions Reduction and Combination Cases ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 14 Figure 3 - 4. Map of VOC Impact Areas Applied in the Evaluation of a 60 ppb NAAQS ....... 21 Figure 3 - 5. Projected post - 2025 Baseli ne Scenario May - September Mean of 8 - hr Daily Maximum Ozone (ppb) ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 31 Figure 3 - 6. Change in May - September Mean of 8 - hr daily Maximum Ozone (ppb) between the post - 2025 Baseline Scenario and the post - 2025 70 ppb Scenario ................. 32 Figure 3 - 7. Change in May - September Mean of 8 - hr daily Maximum Ozone (ppb) between the post - 2025 Baseline Scenario and the post - 2025 65 ppb Scenario ................. 33 Figure 3 - 8. Change in May - September Mean of 8 - hr Daily Maximum Ozone (ppb) between the post - 2025 Baseline Scenario and the post - 2025 60 ppb Scenario ................. 34 Figure 3 - 9. Projected post - 2025 Baseline Scenario W126 Values (ppm - hrs) ......................... 36 Figure 3 - 10. Projected post - 2025 70 ppb Scenario W126 Values (ppm - hrs) ........................... 37 Figure 3 - 11. Projected post - 2025 65 ppb Scenario W126 Values (ppm - hrs) ........................... 38 Figure 3 - 12. Projecte d post - 2025 60 ppb Scenario W126 Values (ppm - hrs) ........................... 39 Figure 3A - 1. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the period May through September for the Northeast subregion, (a) AQS network and (b) CASTNet network. [symbol = median; top/bottom of box = 75th/25th percentiles; top/bottom line = max/min values] ................................ ................................ ... 6 Figure 3A - 2. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the period May through September for the Southeast subregion, (a) AQS network and (b) CASTNet network. ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 7 Figure 3A - 3. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the period May through September for the Midwest subregion, (a) AQS network and (b) CASTNet network. ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 7***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xxi Figure 3A - 4. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the period May through September for the Central states, (a) AQS network and (b) CASTNet network. ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 8 Figure 3A - 5. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the period May through September for the West, (a) AQS network and (b) CASTNet network. ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 8 Figure 3A - 6. Mean Bias (ppb) of MDA8 ozone greater than 60 ppb over the period May September 2011 at AQS and CASTNet monitoring sites in 12 - km U.S. modeling domain. 9 Figure 3A - 7. Normalized Mean Bias (%) of MDA8 ozone greater than 60 p pb over the period May - September 2011 at AQS and CASTNet monitoring sites in 12 - km U.S. modeling domain. ................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 9 Figure 3A - 8. Mean Error (ppb) of MDA8 ozone greater than 60 ppb over the period May September 2011 at AQS and CASTNet monitoring sites in 12 - km U.S. modeling domain. 10 Figure 3A - 9. Normalized Mean Error (%) of MDA8 ozone greater than 60 ppb over the period May - September 2011 at AQS and CASTNet monitoring sites in 12 - km U.S. modeling domain. ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 10 Figure 3A - 10a. Time series of observed (black) and predict ed (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 60195001 in Fresno Co., California. ............................... 11 Figure 3A - 10b. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 60710005 in San Bernardino Co., Californi a. ................. 12 Figure 3A - 10c. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 80350004 in Douglas Co., Colorado ............................... 12 Figure 3A - 10d. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through Se ptember 2011 at site 484392003 in Tarrant Co., Texas. ................................ .. 13 Figure 3A - 10e. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 480391004 in Brazoria Co., Texas. ................................ 13 Figure 3A - 10f. Time series of observed (black ) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 551170006 in Sheboygan Co., Wisconsin. ..................... 14 Figure 3A - 10g. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 261630019 in Wayne Co., M ichigan. ............................. 14 Figure 3A - 10h. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 211110067 in Jefferson Co., Kentucky. .......................... 15***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xxii Figure 3A - 10i. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 420031005 in Allegheny Co., Pennsylvania. .................. 15 Figure 3A - 10j . Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 240210037 in Frederick Co., Maryland. ................. 16 Figure 3A - 10k. Time s eries of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 240251001 in Harford Co., Maryland. ............................ 16 Figure 3A - 10l. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 3608 10124 in Queens, New York. ................................ .. 17 Figure 3A - 10m. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May through September 2011 at site 361030002 in Suffolk County, New York. ..................... 17 Figure 3A - 11. a) Depiction of governing wind patterns and topograph y. b) California Air Basins and sub - regions used for this analysis. Northern sub - region is outlined in pink and southern sub - region is outlined in blue. ................................ .............................. 19 Figure 3A - 12. Impact of 50% anthropogenic California NOx cuts (ppb) on 8 - hr daily average ozone co ncentrations on three days in 2011 ................................ ......................... 20 Figure 3A - 13. Downwind California receptor regions for Northern California (green) and Southern California (purple) ................................ ................................ ....................... 21 Figure 3A - 14. Impact of 50% US anthropogenic VOC cuts (ppb) on 8 - hr daily average ozone concentrati ons on three days in 2011 ................................ ................................ ...... 22 Figure 3A - 15. Change in July average of 8 - hr daily maximum ozone concentration (ppb) due to 50% cut in US anthropogenic VOC emissions ................................ ....................... 23 Figure 3A - 16. Projected change in 2025 ozone design values with an additional 75% regional NOx control (Southwest region; stars represent sites identified in Table 3A 14) 55 Figure 3A - 17. Location of sites identified in Table 3A - 14. Colored dots categorize sites by the predominant source of ozone. Many sites may be influenced by more than one source but are placed in a single category for illustrative purposes in this figure. All ozone monitoring sites categorized as not substantially affected by natural or transported influences in Table 3A - 14 are shown as small diamonds. Gray diamonds repr esent sites that had DVs less than or equal to 60 ppb in the 2025 baseline (or post - 2025 baseline for California sites). Black diamonds represent sites that had DVs greater than 60 ppb in the 2025 baseline (or post - 2025 baseline for California sites). 58 Figure 3A - 18. Projected change in 2025 ozone design values with an additional 90% California NOx control (Southwest region; stars represent sites identified in Table 3A - 14) 60***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xxiii Figure 3A - 19. Daily 8 - hr maximum ozone values at ozone monitor in Weminuche Wild erness area in La Plata County Colorado from 2009 - 2013. Horizontal line provided at 65 ppb. ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 62 Figure 4 - 1. Counties Projected to Exceed the Baseline Level of the Current Ozone Standard (75 ppb) in 2025 Base Case ................................ ................................ .................. 8 Figure 4 - 2. Counties Where Emissions Reductions Were Applied to Demonstrate Attainment of the Current Standard for the Baseline Analysis ................................ ............ 9 Figure 4 - 3. Projected Ozone Design Values in the 2025 Baseline Scenario ........................... 12 Figure 4 - 4. Projected Ozone Design Values in the post - 2025 Baseline Scenario ................... 13 Figure 4 - 5. Counties Where Emissions Reductions Were Applied to Demonstrate Attainment with a 70 ppb Ozone Standard in the 2025 Analysis ................................ ...... 15 Figure 4 - 6. Counties Where Emissions Reductions Were Applied to Demonstrate Attainment with 65 and 60 ppb Ozone Sta ndards in the 2025 Analyses ........................... 16 Figure 5 - 1. Illustration of BenMAP - CE Approach ................................ ................................ . 13 Figure 5 - 2. Data Inputs and Outputs for the BenMAP - CE Program ................................ ...... 15 Figure 5 - 3. Procedure for Generating Benefits Estimates for the 2025 and Post - 2025 Scenarios ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 16 Figure 5C - 1. P remature O 3 - related Deaths Avoided for the Alternative Standards (2025 scenario) According to the Baseline O 3 Concentrations ................................ ...................... 7 Figure 5C - 2. Cumulative Probability Plot of Premature O 3 - related Deaths Avoided for the Alternative Standards (2025 scenario) Acc ording to the Baseline O 3 Concentrations ........ 8 Figure 5C - 3. Percentage of Adult Population (age 30+) by Annual Mean PM 2.5 Exposure in the Baseline Sector Modeling (used to generate the benefit - per - ton estimates)* .......... 12 Figure 5C - 4. Cumulative Distribution of Adult Population (age 30+) by Annual Mean PM 2.5 Exposure in the Baseline Sector Modeling (used to generate the benefit - per - ton estimates)* ................................ ................................ ................................ ......................... 13 Figure 6A - 1. Cropland Area (sq m) by County according to NLCD 2006 data .......................... 2 Figure 6A - 2. Cropland Area (sq m) by Cou nty according to NLCD 2011 data .......................... 3 Figure 6A - 4. Forest Area (sq m) by County according to NLCD 2011 data ............................... 4 Figure 6A - 5. FASOMGHG Modeling Flowchart ................................ ................................ ...... 10 Figure 6A - 6. Ozone Reductions with Respect to 75 ppb under Alternative Scenarios ............. 15***E.O. 12866 Review – Draft – Do Not Cite, Quote or Release During Review***

xxiv Figure 6A - 7. Percentag e Changes in Corn RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario ........... 17 Figure 6A - 8. Percentage Changes in Cotton RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario ........ 18 Figure 6A - 9. Percentage Changes in Potato RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario ......... 19 Figure 6A - 10. Percenta ge Changes in Sorghum RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario 20 Figure 6A - 11. Percentage Changes in Soybean RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario 21 Figure 6A - 12. Percentage Changes in Winter Wheat RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario 22 Figure 6A - 13. Percentage Changes in Softwood RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario 23 Figure 6A - 14. Percentage Changes in Hardwood RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario 24 Figure 6A - 15. Carbon Storage in Forestry Sector, MMtCO 2 e ................................ ................. 42 Figure 7 - 1. Marginal Costs for Known NO x Controls for All Source Sectors (EGU, non EGU Point, Nonpoint, and Nonroad) ................................ ................................ ................... 5 Figure 7 - 2. Observed but incomplete MACC (solid line) based on known controls identified by current tools and complete MACC (dashed line) where gaps indicate abatement not identified by current tools ................................ ................................ ........... 11 Figure 10 - 1. Size Distribution of 159 Existing Coal - Fired EGU Units without SCR NOx Controls ................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 11