592 Hangar Road, Suite 200

Rome, NY 13441

Telephone: 315-736-4171 / Fax: 315-736-0568 ANTHONY J. PICENTE, JR.

County Executive

Chad Lawrence

Acting Commissioner of 

Aviation

COVER SHEET

APPLICATION UNDER THE SMALL COMMUNITY 

AIR SERVICE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

Docket DOT-OST-2012-0069

Community & Legal Sponsor: Oneida County

Airport: Griffiss International Airport

Duns Number: 075814186

Employer Identification Number (EIN): 15-6000460

Congressional District: NY 24

Attached is our application for a $500,000 grant under the Small Community Air Service 

Development Program. The grant application is to support Oneida County’s effort to attract air 

carrier service to Florida vacation destinations departing from Griffiss International Airport.

The Oneida County Community has traditionally supported air carrier activity and in the late 

eighties nearly 100,000 passengers annually flew out of the former Oneida County Airport. The 

recent success of vacation destination, point to point vacation charter carriers like Allegiant and 

Spirit Airlines has renewed interest by Oneida County in attracting air carrier service. Oneida 

County recently completed an Air Service Feasibility Study, prepared by R.A. Wiedemann & 

Associates, Inc. 

The Feasibility Study provides a description of Griffiss International Airport’s air service area by 

geography and demographics and potential passenger demand. This data is shown in Table 1 on 

page 2 of the study. The study determined that the total air service area generates approximately

131,000 enplanements per year. A copy of the study is provided as Attachment 3.

The Feasibility Study analyzed potential demand for vacation travel to the Fort Lauderdale and 

Orlando markets served by Allegiant Airlines and Spirit Airlines respectively, two low cost 

carriers that serve these markets. The study concluded that the Griffiss International Air Service 

Market can support between 40 and 45 seasonal flights to Orlando by Allegiant Airlines and a 

similar number of flights to Fort Lauderdale. 
Prior to completing the Air Service Feasibility study, Oneida County officials have been in 

contact with Allegiant Airlines regarding air service out of Griffiss International Airport. These 

conversations have included financial assistance for start up costs as well as the waiver of airport 

fees during the initial 2 years of operation. This application also includes the marketing dollars 

to promote and support Allegiant Service at Griffiss International Airport.

Additional funding requested in this application is required to provide temporary departure 

lounge and baggage make up facilities required to accommodate passenger loads of an Allegiant 

MD-80 aircraft and required TSA screening criteria. The current plan includes the leasing of 

modular buildings to provide additional departure lounge and bag make up space. The County, 

with FAA dollars, has completed a Passenger Terminal design project and has applied for MAP 

funding for construction. Once the Passenger Terminal is complete, temporary leased modular 

facilities will no longer be required.

A letter from Allegiant supporting the County’s effort to secure the Small Community Air 

Service development grant can be found in Attachment 4.

You consideration of this application is greatly appreciated. 

Sincerely, 

Chad Lawrence

Acting Commissioner of Aviation

Griffiss International Airport
SMALL COMMUNITY AIR SERVICE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

DOCKET DOT-OST-2012-0069

SUMMARY INFORMATION

All applicants must submit this information with their proposal, along with a completed form 

SF424 on www.grants.gov.

A. APPLICANT INFORMATION: (CHECK ALL THAT APPLY)

Not a Consortium Interstate Consortium Intrastate Consortium

Community now receives EAS subsidy

Community (or Consortium member) previously received a Small Community Grant

 

If previous recipient: Date of grant: Expiration date of grant:

Federal Funds Requested: 

Carrier(s) Service Obtained: 

Destination(s) Served: 

B. PUBLIC/PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS: (LIST ORGANIZATION NAMES)

PUBLIC PRIVATE

1. 1.

2. 2.

3. 3.

4. 4.

5. 5.

C. PROJECT PROPOSAL: (CHECK ALL THAT APPLY)

Marketing Upgrade Aircraft New Route

Travel Bank Service Restoration Subsidy

Surface Transportation Regional Service Revenue Guarantee

Launch New Carrier Start-up Cost Offset First Service

Study Secure Additional Service Other (explain below)
D. EXISTING LANDING AIDS AT LOCAL AIRPORT:

Full ILS Outer/Middle Marker Published Instrument Approach

Localizer Other (specify)

E. PROJECT COST: DO NOT ENTER TEXT IN SHADED AREA

LINE DESCRIPTION SUB TOTAL TOTAL AMOUNT

1 Federal amount requested

2 State cash financial contribution

Local cash financial contribution

3a Airport cash funds

3b Non-airport cash funds

3 Total local cash funds (3a + 3b)

4 TOTAL CASH FUNDING (1+2+3)

In-Kind contribution

5a Airport In-Kind contribution**

5b Other In-Kind contribution**

5 TOTAL IN-KIND CONTRIBUTION 

(5a + 5b)

6 TOTAL PROJECT COST (4+5)

F. IN-KIND CONTRIBUTIONS**

For funds in lines 5a (Airport In-Kind contribution) and 5b (Other In-Kind contribution), please 

describe the source(s) of fund(s) for each.
F. IS THIS APPLICATION SUBJECT TO REVIEW BY STATE UNDER EXECUTIVE ORDER 12372

PROCESS?

a. This application was made available to the state under the Executive Order 12372 

Process for review on (date) _____________.

b. Program is subject to E.O. 12372, but has not been selected by the state for review.

c. Program is not covered by E.O. 12372.

G. IS THE APPLICANT DELINQUENT ON ANY FEDERAL DEBT? (IF “YES”, PROVIDE 

EXPLANATION)

No Yes (explain) 

______________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________

Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 1 

Griffiss International Airport 

Air Service Feasibility Study – Phase 1 

1. INTRODUCTION 

HE GRIFFISS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AIR SERVICE FEASIBILITY Study was initiated in 

January 2012, with the express purpose of determining local air service potential from the 

Utica/Rome New York area to Dayton, OH and/or other specific air service destinations. 

In determining air service potential, an aviation consultant, R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc., 

was retained to work with Oneida County, NY, in a potential two-Phase project. The purpose of 

the first phase is to determine if there is sufficient demand in the Utica/Rome area to warrant 

scheduled air service to Dayton, OH. The feasibility of such a service would be determined in 

general terms such as potential aircraft sizes, flight frequencies, and aircraft load factors. If the 

initial demand indicators show potential feasibility, a second phase would be conducted. The 

second phase of the study would examine potential air carriers, route economics, and route 

structures. 

 It is likely that existing scheduled airlines (FAR Part 121 carriers) would not undertake 

this new service because of the potential risk. Rather, scheduled charter carriers (FAR Part 135 

carriers) are more likely to offer service in this market. In the evaluation phase of the study, 

charter carriers indicating an interest in serving the Utica/Rome area would be solicited and 

information concerning the route economics analyses would be given to Oneida County to 

present to these carriers. If the Griffiss International - Dayton route analysis does not prove 

feasible, secondary routes will be examined, including those to vacation destinations such as 

central Florida or Myrtle Beach, SC. 

 The Phase 1 assessment sets the stage for subsequent sections of the study. As such, this 

task includes the documentation of data collection and forecast tasks. Remaining sections in this 

interim report include: 

 Description of the Air Service Area 

 Forecast of Potential Air Service Demand 

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Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 2 

2. DESCRIPTION OF THE SERVICE AREA 

HE AIRLINE SERVICE AREA FOR 

UTICA/ROME NEW York can be defined as 

including two counties: Oneida and 

Herkimer. Together, the two counties make up 

the Utica/Rome Metropolitan Statistical Area 

(MSA), as defined by the United States Census 

Bureau. This service area incorporates the 

communities of Utica, Rome, German Flatts, 

Kirkland, New Hartford, Whitestown, and 

Herkimer. Figure 1 presents a graphic depiction 

of the potential air service area as defined in this 

analysis. There are a number of key economic 

and demographic measures of potential air 

service demand from within the region. The 

following factors are included in this section: 

 Demographic Characteristics 

 Area Amenities and Tourism Attractions 

 Local Business that May Attract Air 

Travelers to the Region 

 Figure 1 - Utica/Rome Service Area 

 

2.1 Demographic Characteristics 

 Table 1 presents the historical population trends for the Utica/Rome MSA, that make up 

the airline service area. As shown, each county has experienced negative growth in population 

since 1990. Oneida County recorded the largest decrease in population at -8.7 percent, followed 

by Herkimer County at -5.9 percent. These areas are significantly below the New York State 

average population growth over the same period, which recorded a population increase of 8.4 

percent. 

Table 1 - Historical Population Trends: Utica/Rome Service Area

1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 Percent Change 

Oneida, NY 251,191 244,736 235,045 231,563 231,044 -8.7% 

Herkimer, NY 65,883 66,711 64,383 62,873 62,236 -5.9% 

Utica/Rome MSA 317,074 311,447 299,428 299,436 293,280 -8.1% 

New York State 18,020,784 18,524,104 18,998,044 19,330,891 19,541,453 8.4% 

Source: Regional Economic Information System (REIS), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of 

 Commerce 

 

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Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

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 Table 2 shows historical PCPI for the Utica/Rome service area for the same time period. 

As shown, the income growth in the Utica/Rome MSA has outpaced the entire State since 1990. 

The combined MSA has grown 7 percent more than the State average during that period. This 

local socioeconomic growth is a positive benefit for potential air service demand. 

Table 2 - Historical Per Capita Personal Income Trends: Utica/Rome Service Area

1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 Percent Change 

Oneida, NY $16,823 $19,561 $24,148 $28,498 $33,920 102% 

Herkimer, NY $14,621 $17,513 $21,431 $26,033 $30,853 111% 

Utica/Rome MSA $16,366 $19,123 $23,563 $27,972 $33,269 103% 

New York State $23,710 $27,106 $34,630 $40,687 $46,516 96% 

Source: Regional Economic Information System (REIS), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of 

 Commerce 

 Employment and economic activity in the Utica/Rome area impact the demand for 

aviation facilities and air carrier services. Companies such as MetLife, Remington Arms, The 

Hartford, Damier Buses North America, Premier Aviation, PEMS Tool & Machine, and Assured 

Information Security provide for a well-diversified employment base. By way of background, 

Table 3 displays the primary industries and employers in the Mohawk Valley area. Most of these 

businesses maintain separate branches across the country, and therefore could make use of 

scheduled air service. 

Table 3 - Key Industry Cluster Employers in the Utica/Rome Service Area

Finance & 

Insurance 

Aviation & 

Aerospace 

Distribution 

& Logistics IT & Cybersecurity Advanced Metals 

& Metallurgy 

Electronics & 

Manufacturing 

Metropolitan Life Goodrich Corp Walmart Air Force 

Research Lab 

Remington 

Arms Idium 

Defense Finance and 

Accounting Service 

Premier 

Aviation 

Family 

Dollar ITT Industries International Wire 

PAR 

Technology 

Bank of America TECT Utica BAE Systems 

Damier 

Commercial Bus 

NA 

JH Rhodes 

Bank of NY Mellon Pratt & 

Whitney (HMI) 

Assured 

Information Systems 

Special Metals 

Corp Davis Inotek 

Utica National 

Insurance Co. 

Lockheed 

Martin Alion Revere Copper Products 

The Hartford 

Insurance Group 

Eastern Air 

Defense Sector SAES Getters 

Source: Economic Development Growth Enterprises Corporation (EDGE) 

To better understand the employment generated by these non-government businesses, Table 4 

list the larger industries within the Utica/Rome area by rank order of the total number of jobs for 

each industry. 

 
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Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 4 

Table 4 - Current Employment by Industry in the Utica/Rome Service Area

Industry Type Jobs % of Total MSA Private Industry

Healthcare 22,158 24% 

Retail 13,560 15% 

Manufacturing 10,974 12% 

Accommodations & Food Services 8,624 10% 

Finance & Insurance 6,182 7% 

Information 1,884 2% 

Source: NYS Department of Labor 

 Table 5 presents historical employment trends for the Utica/Rome MSA. As shown, both 

Oneida and Herkimer County are well behind the State average employment growth percentage. 

In this regard, the Utica/Rome MSA had a 1.7 percent growth over the 19 year period while the 

State had a 12.4 percent growth over the same timeframe. Airlines will consider the economic 

activity in a region as a part of their market evaluation. 

Table 5 - Historical Employment Trends: Utica/Rome Service Area

1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 Percent Change 

Oneida, NY 132,060 129,035 133,521 133,830 134,560 1.9% 

Herkimer, NY 24,431 25,255 26,130 25,513 24,627 0.8% 

Utica/Rome MSA 156,491 154,290 159,651 159,343 159,187 1.7% 

New York State 9,727,348 9,511,472 10,346,129 10,648,866 10,929,753 12.4% 

Source: Regional Economic Information System (REIS), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of 

 Commerce 

Local Businesses That May Attract Air Travelers to the Region 

 Of particular interest to this study are two of the largest single employers in the 

Utica/Rome service area. These companies have a profound impact on the local area, and 

together could form the main driver of demand for commuter air service between Utica/Rome 

and Dayton, OH. 

 Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL): Located less than a mile from Griffiss 

International Airport in Rome, NY, the facility serves as the Information Directorate 

headquarters for the AFRL. Their primary focus is on the development of information 

technology for today's cyberspace battlefield. In the Rome area, the AFRL supports more 

than 1,300 jobs. 

 Defense Finance Accounting Service (DFAS): Also located less than a mile from 

Griffiss International Airport, the DFAS serves to facilitate financial needs from the 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 5 

Department of Defense including vendor pay, accounting data processing, reports 

production, and system support to numerous U.S. Army activities around the world. With 

an operating budget of $60 million, the DFAS supports over 1,000 jobs in the local area. 

2.2 Area Amenities 

 In addition to business use, area amenities associated with the demand for airline service 

include, but are not limited to, the amount of tourism, regional entertainment, and transportation 

infrastructure available. These area amenities and attractions in the region are described in the 

following sections. 

Tourism and Entertainment 

 There are several tourist attractions in the region that may potentially use Griffiss 

International Airport as an entry point. These attractions include: 

 Turning Stone Resort & Casino: Located 15 miles from Griffiss International Airport, 

this facility includes a luxury hotel with 268 rooms and 28 suites, gambling, 

entertainment, golf, spa, indoor pool, and dance clubs. 

 Baseball Hall of Fame: Located in Cooperstown, 54 miles from Griffiss International 

Airport. Visitors from around the world are attracted to the Hall of Fame. 

 Fenimore Art Museum: Also located in Cooperstown, this museum is one of America's 

premier art institutions, home to American folk art and American Indian art. 

 The Adirondack Park: Located about 50 miles from Griffiss International Airport, the 

Adirondack Park is the largest state park in the country, encompassing nearly 6 million 

acres. The Park offers skiing, whitewater rafting, canoeing, hiking, picnicking and other 

outdoor activities.

 Old Forge: Located in the Adirondack Mountains, 53 miles from Griffiss International 

Airport. Old Forge is the home of Water Safari - New York's largest water theme park 

with over 50 rides & attractions. Also at Old Forge: Camping, Mini-Golf, Museums, 

Educational Centers, Snowmobile Recreation, and Boat Tours.

It is understood that most of these attractions are accessed by automobile. However, there is a 

small percentage that would use air transportation, particularly if a tour package was prearranged with a travel agency.
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 6 

3. POTENTIAL PASSENGER DEMAND ESTIMATES 

HE FORECAST OF POTENTIAL PASSENGER DEMAND METHODOLOGY and results are described

in this report followed by conclusions and recommendations for further consideration. 

Based on the forecast of potential passenger demand, the study sponsors can assess the 

feasibility of such services and make informed decisions on air service development strategies. 

 Currently, Utica/Rome does not have any scheduled commercial air service. Thus, the 

establishment of new airline service must take into account the demand hubs which have the 

greatest attraction to existing Utica/Rome air travelers who already use other airports to initiate 

their airline trips. Most airline travelers in the area must currently drive to Syracuse, Albany, or 

another airline service hub to access scheduled service. 

 Study sponsors suggested that Dayton, OH, may be a significant origin and destination 

(O&D) point for the area, thanks to the travel between AFRL offices in Rome and in Dayton. 

Currently, travelers that utilize commercial air service to Dayton are likely to travel to the nearby 

larger airports in Syracuse and Albany to do so. While using other airports is a viable option for 

many, there are several employers in Utica/Rome that maintain offices in the Dayton area who 

could benefit from locally-based air services. It is believed that new air services could ease the 

travel burdens of local businesses while providing significant convenience to business customers, 

vendors, and other partners visiting from outside the region. Likewise, leisure travelers would 

also enjoy the benefits of improved access to the national aviation transportation system. 

 Key to estimating the need for new air service in the study area is an accurate estimate of 

potential air passenger demand. Every characteristic of the service is based upon this demand 

assessment - type of aircraft, flight frequency, fares, hub destinations, etc. Therefore, the product 

of this analysis is the determination of a realistic forecast of potential demand for a commuter air 

service from Griffiss International Airport to Dayton, OH. In this regard, estimates of potential 

enplanement demand were generated using the following methods: 

 Comparative Analysis 

 Existing Air Travel Data from Surrounding Airports 

 Newspaper Survey/E-mail Correspondence/Direct Questioning 

 

Each of these methods will be developed and a preferred forecast will be selected. The preferred 

forecast may be selected from one of the methodologies or it may represent an average of the 

three. 

3.1 Comparative Analysis 

 Obviously, there are numerous factors that contribute to the success of an airline 

operation and no two community airline service areas are exactly alike. But there is value in 

looking at the common measures of airline demand, including the number of enplanements-percapita that occur in different communities and the impact of larger nearby airline airports on 

demand. 

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Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 7 

 For this study, a model was used that estimates total potential air travel demand from 

small cities located near major alternate airports. Because we know that large airports attract a 

certain percentage of passengers from smaller airports, one way of estimating the effects of this 

phenomenon is to chart the information from many different airports concerning their number of 

enplanements, their population, and their distance to the nearest larger airline airport. Recent 

statistical information from 91 communities throughout the U.S. was gathered in developing the 

model. Information input to the model included: enplanements, city/county population, and 

distance to the nearest large hub air terminal. 

 One other factor was important in measuring the actual ability of an airport to capture 

local airline passengers: the type of air service offered. In this regard, airports with jet service 

enplaned more passengers per capita than did airports with turbo-prop service only. For these 

reasons, three estimates of local demand were generated. These estimates predicted the existing 

demand that could be captured with good local service using: 1) all mainline jet aircraft service, 

2) all regional jet aircraft service and, 3) 19-seat turboprop aircraft only. 

Annual Enplanements 

 Mainline Jet market potential: 131,000 

 All Regional Jet aircraft market capture potential: 17,300 

 19-seat market capture potential: 2,800 

For 19-seat only airline service, a total of 2,800 annual enplanements would be an average level 

of actual demand. With regional jet service, a total of 17,300 annual enplanements would be an 

average level of demand. The mainline jet estimate is that of the total market potential. This is 

the likely amount that is generated by the MSA each year that uses Syracuse, Albany, or other 

airline service hubs. It is key to note that the numbers produced by this comparative analysis are 

average levels of demand. That means that local factors could drive actual performance either 

higher or lower than the estimate. 

 It is also important to remember that these totals represent the total air service potential 

for Utica/Rome. Consequently, the demand for air service specifically between Utica/Rome and 

Dayton would only be a small percentage of these figures. 

3.2 Existing Air Travel Data from Surrounding Airports 

 While the Utica/Rome area does not have scheduled commercial air service to Dayton, 

travelers to and from the region do utilize commercial air transportation. However, as mentioned, 

all of these airline services are provided at airports located outside the region. For this analysis, it 

was assumed that airports in Syracuse and Albany attract the majority of Utica/Rome air 

travelers due to their close proximity to the region and their numerous air service offerings. 

Depending on the traveler starting location in Utica/Rome, these airports can be reached within a 

one to two hour drive. Therefore, one method of estimating the total origin and destination 

market for scheduled air service from Utica/Rome to Dayton, is to first examine the total O&D 

travel between the Dayton and the larger markets of Syracuse and Albany. It can be assumed that 

the Utica/Rome O&D to Dayton is a subset of the larger Syracuse-Albany to Dayton O&D total. 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 8 

 2010 Annual O&D Passengers 

 Albany - Dayton 6,570 

 Syracuse - Dayton 5,590 

A total of 12,160 O&D passengers was recorded in 2010 from Syracuse and Albany to Dayton. It 

is important to recognize that this number represents not only the total air service demand for 

Utica/Rome to Dayton, but a much larger area encompassing Syracuse and Albany as well. It can 

be assumed that even if up to 25 percent of that total were attributed to the Utica/Rome area, that 

translates into an actual generated demand of 3,040. This is surprisingly close to the Comparative 

Model estimate of 19-seat aircraft commuter service generating capability of the area. On a daily 

basis, this equates to a high estimate of 8 passengers (4 enplanements and 4 deplanements). 

 

3.3 E-mail Correspondence / Direct Survey 

 As previously stated, there are a diverse number of businesses in the Mohawk Valley 

region that require air travel. On January 3, 2012, a press release was published in the local 

newspaper that spoke about the project and urged potential users to contact R.A. Wiedemann & 

Associates with input and data. Appendix A presents a copy of that press release. Emails and 

letters received from that press release were included in the survey information relative to local 

demand generation. From this newspaper response, the following business demand was 

discovered (in addition to a number of personal travel requests): 

 Assured Information Security (AIS): Located less than a mile from Griffiss International 

Airport, AIS is a software company that focuses on cyber technology, command and 

control, human effectiveness and signals . Assured Information Security showed to have 

an office in Dayton. In 2011, they could account for an estimated 6 enplanements 

between New York and Dayton. 

 Burrows Paper Corporation: Located 40 miles from Griffiss International Airport in 

Little Falls, NY, Burrows Paper Corporation is a worldwide supplier of paper and 

packaging solutions. With a packaging branch located in Franklin, OH, they could 

account for an estimated 96 enplanements per year between New York and Dayton. 

 In addition to the newspaper response, two leading employers in the service area were 

contacted: the AFRL, and the Defense Finance Accounting Service (DFAS). Both of these 

companies were contacted via e-mail and telephone to gauge their annual air travel between New 

York and Dayton. 

 Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL): In 2011, Rome Labs accounted for a total of 

496 enplanements between New York and Dayton, OH (334 outgoing + 162 incoming). 

 Defense Finance Accounting Service (DFAS): In 2011 the DFAS was responsible for 

zero flights between New York and Dayton, as they have no office or affiliation in 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 9 

Dayton that would require coordination. Primarily, the DFAS in Rome conducts regular 

air travel with offices in Indianapolis, Cleveland, Columbus, and Washington D.C. 

In total, of all the businesses contacted as a part of this study, three companies maintained offices 

in the Dayton area, and together could account for 598 O&D (say 600) in 2011 between 

Utica/Rome and Dayton. That number translates into 1.6 passengers per day. If service was only 

offered on the weekdays, it would result in 2.3 passengers per day. 

 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 10 

4. PRELIMINARY FINDINGS 

N A PRELIMINARY BASIS, IT CAN BE concluded that the demand for airline service to 

Dayton, OH from the Utica/Rome area is very light. Examining the demand generation 

from a number of different methods reveals that the total area generates roughly 131,000 

enplanements per year, according to our modeling. From this total, the amount of demand that 

could be captured using regional jet service was only 17,300 enplanements. Because the distance 

to Dayton is more than 500 miles, a small turboprop aircraft would not be appropriate to serve 

the market. This would leave the 50-seat regional jet as the smallest aircraft capable of serving 

the market. Even if every potential enplanement shown in our forecast for the regional jet were 

to use the service to Dayton, there would not be enough passengers to make the load factors 

attractive to any of the airlines. 

 The hypothetical best case for the regional jet service would be: 

 Minimum 2 round-trips per day, 7 days per week = 36,500 outbound seats 

 Total enplanement (outbound passenger) potential = 17,300 

 Passenger load factor = 47.4 percent 

 Average load factor on regional jet airlines for 2010 = 76.5 percent1

Thus, if every potential enplanement used the service to Dayton, the route would still generate 29 

percent less than the average load factor being carried by regional jet airlines in 2010. Without 

subjecting this to economic route analysis, it can be concluded that regional jet service would not 

last very long without significant local subsidy and revenue guarantee for the route. 

 If the analysis considers the identifiable O&D traffic between Utica/Rome and Dayton, 

OH, the passenger numbers are reduced dramatically. In this regard, the analysis showed that 

direct travel between those cities totaled about 600 in 2011. As mentioned, this translates into 2.3 

passengers per day, if service is restricted to just weekdays. No concept of scheduled airline 

service with such a low demand could be considered feasible. Even periodic charter service 

would be challenged to make such a routing work. 

 In light of the above, and considering that Allegiant Airlines has expressed interest in 

serving the Utica/Rome market from Griffiss International, it is recommended that the route 

evaluation of the potential Dayton market not be undertaken. Instead, it is recommended that the 

Phase 2 investigation of the potential Allegiant markets be undertaken and that the route 

economics of that market be subjected to evaluation. 

 

 

1

 Source: http://www.raa.org/Portals/0/IndustryStats/usRegionalFactSheetMay2011.pdf 

O
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 11 

Griffiss International Airport 

Air Service Feasibility Study – Phase 2 

HE ORIGINAL WORK SCOPE CALLED FOR THE economic route evaluation of the GriffissDayton market, to be followed by an examination of any other potential air service 

options. Because it was preliminarily determined that the Griffiss-Dayton market was not 

a feasible route, that intermediate task of route evaluation was postponed until after the 

examination of potential vacation markets for Allegiant/Spirit/etc. Therefore, the following 

sections present the demand estimate for vacation travel from Griffiss, to include Myrtle Beach, 

SC and Orlando, FL. This forecast of potential enplanements will then be subjected to an 

economic route evaluation. 

5. POTENTIAL DEMAND ESTIMATES FOR VACATION TRAVEL

HE PHASE 1 ANALYSIS DETERMINED THAT THE potential capture of total passengers 

generated in the Utica/Rome area was roughly 13 percent for a regional jet airline service 

(17,300 regional jet enplanements divided by 131,000 total enplanements). For turboprop 

service, that capture rate dropped to 2 percent (2,800 turboprop enplanements divided by 

131,000 total enplanements). It was shown that these numbers would not support the 

conventional scheduled airline service model (7 day/week operations). 

 Rather, a non-conventional model that has been used successfully by smaller air service 

markets has been developed by carriers such as Allegiant Air and Spirit Airlines. These carriers 

have found that by keeping costs low and providing very low frequencies (e.g. two flights per 

week), they can fill narrow-body jets to 90+ percent load factor capacity. Allegiant Air features 

low fare, all-jet non-stop service from small cities to “world-class destinations.” Their desire is to 

make leisure travel affordable and convenient. It is important to note that Allegiant Air has 

indicated an interest in serving the Utica/Rome area. Thus, this analysis can be tailored to their 

service profile. 

 In addition to Allegiant Air, Spirit Airlines offers a customer-oriented product that 

empowers customers to save money on air travel by offering ultra low base fares with a range of 

optional services for a fee, allowing customers the freedom to choose only the extras they value. 

Spirit's route structure also serves vacation destinations such as Myrtle Beach, Orlando and other 

Florida cities. However, Spirit also serves a number of Caribbean, Latin American, and South 

American destinations. It is noteworthy that Spirit Airlines founder, Ben Baldanza, was born in 

Rome, NY. It is also noteworthy that Spirit Airlines, although contacted by the County has not 

responded with any interest in serving Griffiss International. 

 The non-conventional model that was investigated for the Utica/Rome area involved the 

estimation of demand for popular vacation destinations that are offered by these low fare airlines. 

In this regard, Allegiant offers several Florida destinations from Plattsburgh, NY, including: 

 Fort Lauderdale 

 Orlando 

T 

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Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 12 

 St. Petersburg/Tampa 

Allegiant also serves Elmira/Corning (Orlando, FL) and Niagara Falls International Airport 

(Orlando and St. Petersburg/Tampa). From Plattsburgh, Spirit offers flights to Fort Lauderdale, 

with connections from there to more than 40 destinations in Latin America and the Caribbean. 

From Niagara Falls, Spirit serves Myrtle Beach and Orlando. 

 Thus, the model for Griffiss is to examine the potential traffic to Florida, with possible 

seasonal traffic to Myrtle Beach, SC. To develop a model that accurately projects nonconventional O&D traffic, a method was used that took a “top-down” approach. The method 

used a three step process to identify local demand in these vacation markets: 

 Determine Potential Capture of Area (Syracuse and Albany) O&D to These Markets 

 Perform Comparative Market Analysis for Other Allegiant Cities 

 Estimate Load Factors and Flight Frequencies 

5.1 Regional O&D to Vacation Markets 

 Similar to the comparison made for the Griffiss-Dayton market, the O&D data for two 

vacation markets were gathered for comparison. In this regard, the Orlando and Myrtle Beach 

markets were examined for their O&D with Syracuse and Albany. Because there is no airline 

service available from Griffiss International, it is believed that Syracuse and Albany capture 

most of the airline demand from the Utica/Rome area. Thus, the combined Syracuse and Albany 

O&D for any particular market is likely to be inclusive of the Utica/Rome passengers. With this 

in mind, the following O&D statistics were recorded (Table 6): 

Table 6 – Albany & Syracuse O&D to Orlando and Myrtle Beach 

Year Market ALB SYR Total Pax 

2006 MCO 28,346 16,020 44,366 

2007 MCO 27,270 18,730 46,000 

2008 MCO 24,599 18,479 43,078 

2009 MCO 23,159 17,484 40,643 

2010 MCO 21,859 17,216 39,075 

 

Market ALB SYR Total Pax 

2006 MYR 620 481 1,101 

2007 MYR 1,091 1,068 2,159 

2008 MYR 1,133 580 1,713 

2009 MYR 1,567 402 1,969 

2010 MYR 1,185 393 1,578 

Legend: MCO=Orlando, MYR=Myrtle Beach, ALB=Albany, SYR=Syracuse, Pax=Passengers 

 As shown in Table 6, the Orlando market has a combined passenger total averaging more 

than 40,000 per year. Myrtle Beach, on the other hand, averages less than 2,000 O&D annually. 

Thus, it can be quickly concluded that Myrtle Beach can be dropped from the analysis and 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 13 

instead, the focus can be on Orlando. This is in keeping with Allegiant’s primary service pattern 

of providing Orlando service before adding other Florida destinations such as St. 

Petersburg/Tampa or Fort Lauderdale. 

 It can be assumed that if up to 25 percent of the total Orlando O&D were attributed to the 

Utica/Rome area, that translates into an actual generated demand of about 10,000 annual O&D. 

This translates into 5,000 enplanements and 5,000 deplanements. For the proposed airline service 

to achieve its goals and the goals of the County, there is a need to enplane at least 10,000 

passengers, annually. 

5.2 Comparative Market Analysis for Other Allegiant Cities 

 In progressing the analysis, the focus was shifted from all potential carriers (Allegiant, 

Spirit, Direct Air, etc.) to just Allegiant Air. The lack of interest from Spirit Airlines and the 

difficulty of getting other start-up carriers into Griffiss International made it easier to concentrate 

the analysis on the one carrier that has expressed interest in the Utica/Rome market – Allegiant 

Air. Therefore, this section examined other cities within Allegiant’s route structure that resemble 

Utica/Rome. 

 One method of predicting the local air traveler response to Allegiant Air scheduled 

service to Griffiss International is to examine the characteristics of other cities that are currently 

served by Allegiant. In this regard, five cities were identified that may have some similar 

characteristics with the Utica/Rome market. Initially, ten cities were selected for analysis, 

however, four of these cities have had Allegiant service for less than one year. Therefore, only 

six cities had data that could be used in this comparative analysis. These cities are listed in Table 

7 and include Plattsburgh, Elmira/Corning, Rockford (IL), Grand Island (NE), Ft. Collins (CO), 

and Pueblo (CO). Also listed are the Allegiant enplanement totals, the city populations, and the 

distance to the nearest larger hub. 

Table 7 – Allegiant Market Enplanement Comparisons 

City Population Allegiant 

Enplanements 

Enplanements/Capita Distance to Hub 

Plattsburg, NY 82,100 64,350 0.78 60 mi. to Montreal 

Elmira/Corning, NY 88,800 25,150 0.28 110 mi. to Rochester 

Rockford, IL 152,900 75,600 0.49 60 mi. to Chicago 

(ORD) 

Grand Island, NE 58,800 29,750 0.51 140 mi. to Omaha 

Ft. Collins, CO 144,000 31,300 0.22 60 mi. to Denver 

Pueblo, CO 106,600 13,300 0.12 45 mi. to Colo Spngs. 

Utica/Rome 97,000 11,650 – 21,350 0.12 – 0.22 50 mi. to Syracuse 

 Within this analysis the data seems to indicate that cities with Allegiant Air service that 

are nearby much larger markets (Montreal, Chicago, Denver) tend to attract a portion of that 

larger market, thereby increasing the apparent enplanement per capita ratio. Conversely, a city 

such as Grand Island, NE has a large capture rate of their own local population due to the 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 14 

distance from the nearest larger alternative (Omaha). Perhaps the closest comparative example 

to the Utica/Rome case involved Pueblo, CO, where the city population of 106,600 was very 

close to the combined population of Utica/Rome (97,000). In addition, the distance to the nearest 

hub (Colorado Springs) is only 45 miles – very close to the roughly 50 mile distance between 

Syracuse and Utica/Rome. Ft. Collins presents a somewhat similar case to the north of Denver. 

This community is only served by Allegiant and produces over 31,000 enplanements annually. 

Given the comparisons, the most likely enplanement activity for Utica/Rome would be in the 

0.12 to 0.22 enplanements per capita range. This would put the average potential generation of 

enplanements for Allegiant at 16,500 as a mid-range estimate. This estimate is very close to the 

hypothetical best case of 17,300 enplanements for a regional jet airline service scenario at 

Griffiss (see Section 3.1). 

 In considering the range of potential enplanements for Allegiant Air, the most 

conservative estimate of demand was selected for evaluation. If the low range of demand proves 

to be economically feasible, it is certain that the high range will be feasible. Selection of the low 

range of demand involved using the 0.12 enplanements per capita ratio (from the Pueblo, CO 

example) for Utica/Rome. This produced a low-end estimate of 11,650 when applied to the 

Utica/Rome combined population. That estimate is above the 10,000 enplanement level, which 

makes an airport eligible for FAA primary airport entitlement funding. By attracting nearly 

12,000 enplanements to Griffiss International, it is likely that the Allegiant service would not 

only stimulate new enplanement demand from Utica and Rome, but it would also attract 

potential passengers from outside the immediate area because of the low fares. 

5.3 Estimate Load Factors and Flight Frequencies 

 The next aspect of the analysis involved the estimation of aircraft load factors and flight 

frequencies. In addition, some idea of the fares could be estimated by examining the fares from 

the three existing Allegiant service points in NY to Orlando, FL. The load factors experienced 

system-wide for the scheduled Allegiant service are presented in Table 8. As shown, the overall 

load factors for the airline remained near 90 percent in 2010 and 2011. 

Table 8 – Allegiant Operating Statistics for 2010 and 2011 

Measure 2011 2010 % Change 

Passengers 1,392,092 1,295,703 7.4% 

Revenue Passenger Miles (000's) 1,283,218 1,190,960 7.7% 

Available Seat Miles (000's) 1,431,430 1,325,364 8.0% 

Load Factor 89.6% 89.9% -0.3% 

Departures 10,360 9,774 6.0% 

Average Passengers/Departure 134 133 0.8% 

Average Stage Length (miles) 904 904 0.0% 

 If the average load factor for the Allegiant Air system is used for Griffiss International, 

the following process could be used to estimate the number of flights: 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 15 

 Average number of seats per departure = 150 

 Average number of passengers per departure = 134 

 Average load factor (passengers/seats) = 89.6% 

 Total number of enplaned passengers (annual) = 11,650 

 Total number of departures = 87 (say 90) 

 Service for 2 roundtrips per week = 45 weeks 

As shown, Allegiant Air could service the Griffiss International market with two roundtrips per 

week to Orlando on a seasonal basis (40 to 45 weeks per year) and still achieve their minimum 

estimated passenger targets. Allegiant does provide seasonal service at many of their smaller 

airport locations. 

 Should demand for Allegiant Air’s service exceed the minimum totals, they could easily 

add frequencies or other destinations to their service offerings. This has been a common growth 

tactic used by the airline at other service points. For example, if the higher number of passengers 

is achieved (21,350), a total of 160 departures would be needed. This could translate into three 

weekly roundtrips on a year-round basis, or four weekly roundtrips on a seasonal basis. 

 The next step in the process is to examine the route structure, potential fares, and 

economics of a start-up service at Griffiss International. From the existing fare structure, it can 

be noted that flights from Plattsburgh to Orlando currently range between $200 and $330 oneway. Similar flights between Elmira/Corning and Orlando range between $112 and $203, 

depending upon how far in advance the flights are booked. From Niagara Falls International 

Airport, the fares range between $120 and $226 for one-way flights. Some of these costs may be 

influenced by the increased demand over “Spring Break” but they are indicative of current air 

fares. If air service is initiated at Griffiss International, it is believed that similar competitive 

pricing would stimulate local demand for air travel. 

 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 16 

6. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL AIR SERVICE ROUTES 

S PART OF PHASE 2 OF THE Griffiss International Airport Air Service Feasibility Study, 

potential commercial air service routes for Utica/Rome were analyzed from an economic 

perspective. To the extent possible, the potential routes were analyzed using information 

from the existing operations of the target airlines. Airline cost and revenue information 

can be found in company financial documents, U.S. Department of Transportation filings, 

corporate communications, and news articles. Care was taken to incorporate only that 

information that was most relevant to the Griffiss situation. For instance, markets with similar 

stage lengths as those proposed at Griffiss were included in the analysis as were markets with air 

service profiles similar to Utica/Rome’s. 

The objective of the economic analysis is to determine the financial viability of the 

potential Griffiss air service routes studied. Based on these results, opportunities can prioritized 

and levels of community-wide support can be gauged. 

6.1 Potential Routes and Service Levels 

 Based on the current situation at Griffiss, only one air service model appears possible. 

This involves a leisure-oriented air service by a niche airline. It was found in the potential 

passenger estimation analysis that a regularly scheduled connecting service to a larger hub would 

not be feasible due to a lack of adequate demand. Thus, only one service route appears viable: a 

part-time schedule to a Florida destination. 

Allegiant Air: Griffiss International – Orlando Sanford International Airport 

Allegiant Air has expressed an interest in the Utica/Rome, NY market. In the near term, 

the most likely market for service at Griffiss International is Orlando, Florida. Allegiant’s 

business model is based on flying passengers from small, underserved communities to major 

U.S. leisure destinations like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Orlando. To experience lower costs and 

avoid competition with larger airlines, Allegiant often serves secondary airports like Orlando 

Sanford International Airport in Sanford, Florida which is 18 miles northeast of Orlando. The 

airline typically operates flights between markets at low weekly frequencies, but offers low fares 

and significant discounts on package deals involving hotels, car rentals and other service 

providers. Allegiant’s Utica/Rome-Orlando service would likely operate with 150-seat MD83 jet 

aircraft with two weekly departures. 

Spirit Airlines: Griffiss International – Orlando International Airport 

Although Spirit Airlines has already indicated that they are not likely to serve this 

market, they were included in the analysis to provide contrast for the Allegiant Air evaluation. 

Spirit Airlines’ business model allows them to compete principally through offering low base 

fares. For 2011, 2010 and 2009, their average base fare was approximately $81, $77, and $85, 

respectively, and they have offered promotional base fares of $9 or less. Since 2007, when 

Spirit’s average base fare was approximately $98, they have unbundled components of their air 

A
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 17 

travel service that have traditionally been included in base fares, such as baggage and advance 

seat selection, and offer them as optional, ancillary services for additional fees (which are 

recorded in their financial statements as non-ticket revenue). This strategy enables their 

passengers to identify, select and pay for the services they want to use. While many domestic 

airlines have also adopted some aspects of their unbundled pricing strategy, unlike Spirit, they 

generally have not made a corresponding reduction in base fares. 

 Spirit Airlines uses Airbus aircraft for all of their routes. They have three models: the A319, A-320, and the A-321. For the Griffiss market, it is assumed that the A-319 would be used. 

This aircraft has 145 seats and predominates the Spirit Airlines fleet. 

6.2 Analytical Methodology and Results 

In Phase 1 of the Feasibility Study, forecasts of the Griffiss International market showed 

base levels of demand adequate to support the niche market served by Allegiant or Spirit 

Airlines. However, due to lack of specificity in available data sources, the details of the market’s 

air service demand are largely unknown. In order to analyze the economics of the services 

described above, assumptions were developed regarding the specific airlines and routes. The 

major assumptions and results of the analysis are described below. 

Allegiant Air Analysis 

The Allegiant Air analysis considers two weekly roundtrip flights between Griffiss 

International and Orlando Sanford on MD83 aircraft with 150 seats. Allegiant is very much a 

point-to-point carrier and it does not seek out passengers wishing to connect beyond the non-stop 

segments it serves. Therefore, the analysis for Griffiss International is centered on local 

Utica/Rome-Orlando passenger traffic and the costs and revenues associated with serving those 

passengers. 

As a public company, Allegiant publishes many documents about its operations and 

finances. Information from these sources allowed for good estimations of proposed operations at 

Griffiss International. In Allegiant’s 10-K report for 2011, system-wide cost per available seat 

mile (CASM) was reported at 10.9 cents. Applying this CASM to the two weekly roundtrips 

with the MD83 results in annual costs as shown below: 

Table 9 - Allegiant Air: Utica/Rome – Orlando Stanford 

 Estimated Cost 

2011 CASM (cents) 10.9

Roundtrip Mileage 2,098

Available Seats/Aircraft 150

Cost per Roundtrip $34,302

Total Annual Cost $3,087,207

Allegiant’s revenue estimates are a function of the average air fare to be charged on 

Utica/Rome flights and the number of paying passengers onboard those flights. Another 

component, called ancillary revenue, is extremely important to the Allegiant revenue model. 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 18 

Allegiant has successfully monetized many services related to transporting leisure travelers. 

These services include charges for preferred seats, onboard meals, checked baggage and travelrelated packages. So, while base airfares are low and attractive, Allegiant passengers tend to 

generate significant revenue for the airline outside of air fares. In a recent financial report, 

Allegiant reported ancillary revenue of $36.40 per passenger system-wide. 

Analysis of Allegiant’s fares in its existing Orlando Sanford markets shows that the 

average one-way fare in the Utica/Rome market would be approximately $92. Add in the $36.40 

in ancillary revenue and each passenger is expected to generate $128.40 in revenue on flights to 

and from Utica/Rome. Allegiant is adept at maximizing it revenue per flight by flying as full 

with passengers as possible. While industry load factor averages tend to hover around 80 percent, 

Allegiant often fills close to 90 percent of its seats per flight. To be conservative in our estimates, 

this analysis assumed Allegiant’s Utica/Rome – Orlando average load factor at 86.3 percent, 

which is below their system wide average of 89.6 percent. 

Table 10 - Allegiant Air: Total Griffiss Intl. O&D Traffic and Revenue 

Enplaned 

Passengers 

Total 

Passengers 

Average Fare 

(One-Way) 

Ancillary 

Revenue 

Total 

Onboard 

Revenue 

Total Utica/Rome Passengers 11,650 23,300 

Total Seat Capacity 13,500 27,000 $92 $36.40 $3,466,735 

Average Load Factor 86.3% 86.3% 

Having estimated costs and revenues for the potential Allegiant service at Griffiss International, 

a final calculation yields the annual profit expected on the route. 

Table 11 - Allegiant Air: Utica/Rome – Orlando Sanford 

 Route Profitability Summary 

Total Passengers 23,300

Total Revenue $3,466,735

Average Roundtrip Fare $257

Total Cost $3,087,207

Operating Profit (Loss) $379,528

Estimated Profit (Loss) Margin 12%

The $380,000 profit estimated for the Allegiant service is the result of a sound strategy 

whereby costs are held low by infrequent service to non-traditional airports using inexpensive 

aircraft. The high average load factors drive up passenger revenue for every flight that is 

operated. Allegiant’s service would appear to work well for a market like Utica/Rome and the 

concept has been a proven success in many similar markets. 

To estimate the upper range of route economics – those for the higher forecast of 21,350 

enplanements – an extension of the above methodology was used to derive the results for 

Allegiant Air. Table 12 shows the summary of route economics for the upper range of forecast 

potential. As shown, more passengers mean better economic performance in this routing. 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 19 

Table 12 – Allegiant Air Route Economics – Upper Forecast Range 

ROUTE FACTOR Upper Forecast Range 

Distance (One way) 1,049 miles 

One-way Fare $128.40 

RASM = $0.1224/available seat mile $128.40 

CASM = $0.109/available seat mile $114.34 

Annual Enplaned Passengers 42,700 

Total Route Seats 48,000 

Total Route Revenues $6,163,084.80 

Total Route Costs $5,488,368.00 

Route Earnings $674,716.80 

Profit Margin 12% 

Spirit Airlines Analysis 

The Spirit Airlines analysis considers two weekly roundtrip flights between Griffiss 

International and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport on Airbus A-319 aircraft 

with 145 seats. Spirit’s route network includes 98 markets served by 48 airports throughout 

North America, the Caribbean and Latin America. The majority of their routes operate to or from 

their South Florida gateway at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. As measured 

by available seat miles, or capacity, for 2011 Spirit had approximately 54 percent of their 

capacity operating to or from Fort Lauderdale Airport providing service to the domestic U.S., the 

Caribbean and Latin America. Spirit is also a point-to-point carrier, except for its international 

destinations that connect from Fort Lauderdale, FL. However, for this analysis only the local 

Utica/Rome-Fort-Lauderdale passenger traffic is considered, along with the costs and revenues 

associated with serving that traffic. 

As a public company, Spirit Airlines also publishes many documents about its operations 

and finances. Information from these sources allowed for good estimations of proposed 

operations at Griffiss International. In Spirit’s 10-K report for 2011, system-wide cost per 

available seat mile (CASM) was reported at 9.91 cents. Applying this CASM to the two weekly 

roundtrips with the Airbus A-319 aircraft results in annual costs as shown below: 

Table 13 - Spirit Airlines: Utica/Rome – Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport

Airline Profile Item Estimated Cost 

2011 CASM (cents) 9.91 

Roundtrip Mileage 2,520 

Available Seats/Aircraft 145 

Cost per Roundtrip $36,211 

Total Annual Cost $3,403,847 

Spirit’s revenue estimates are a function of the average air fare to be charged on 

Utica/Rome flights and the number of paying passengers onboard those flights. Similar to 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 20 

Allegiant, Spirit Airlines has increased their ancillary revenue on their flights, growing from 

about $5 in 2006 to almost $45 in 2011. These services include charges for preferred seats, 

onboard meals, checked baggage and travel-related packages. So, while base airfares are low 

and attractive, Spirit Airlines passengers tend to generate significant revenue for the airline 

outside of air fares. 

Analysis of Spirit Airlines fares in its existing Fort Lauderdale markets shows that the 

average revenue per available seat mile (RASM) is $0.1145. Applying this factor to the one-way 

mileage from the Utica/Rome market to would be approximately $289. Spirit Airlines is adept at 

maximizing it revenue per flight by flying as full with passengers as possible. In this regard, 

Spirit’s average load factor was 85.6 percent in 2011. In concert with these averages, this 

analysis assumed Spirit’s Utica/Rome – Fort Lauderdale average load factor at 85.5 percent. 

Table 14 - Spirit Airlines: Total Griffiss Intl. O&D Traffic and Revenue 

Enplaned 

Passengers Total Passengers Average Fare 

(One-Way) 

Total 

Onboard 

Revenue 

Total Utica/Rome Passengers 11,650 23,300 

Total Seat Capacity 13,630 27,260 $144 $3,932,800 

Average Load Factor 85.5% 85.5% 

Having estimated costs and revenues for the potential Allegiant service at Griffiss International, 

a final calculation yields the annual profit expected on the route. 

Table 15 - Spirit Airlines: Utica/Rome – Fort Lauderdale 

 Route Profitability Summary 

Total Passengers 23,300

Total Revenue $3,932,800

Average Roundtrip Fare $289

Total Cost $3,403,847

Operating Profit (Loss) $528,953

Estimated Profit (Loss) Margin 16%

The $529,000 profit estimated for the Spirit Airlines service is the result of a sound 

strategy whereby costs are held low by infrequent service to non-traditional airports using 

Spirit’s Ultra Low Cost Carrier (ULCC) business model. The high average load factors drive up 

passenger revenue for every flight that is operated. Spirit Airlines’ part time service schedule of 

two flights per week would appear to work well for a market like Utica/Rome-Fort Lauderdale, 

FL. 

To estimate the upper range of route economics – those for the higher forecast of 21,350 

enplanements – an extension of the above methodology was used to derive the results for Spirit 

Airlines. Table 16 shows the summary of route economics for the upper range of forecast 

potential. As shown, more passengers mean better economic performance in this routing. 
Griffiss International Airport 

Draft Air Service Feasibility Study April 2012 

R.A. Wiedemann & Associates, Inc. 21 

Table 16 – Spirit Airlines Route Economics – Upper Forecast Range 

ROUTE FACTOR Upper Forecast Range 

Distance (One way) 1,260 miles 

One-way Fare $144 

RASM = $0.1145/available seat mile $144.27 

CASM = $0.0991/available seat mile $124.87 

Total Passengers 42,700 

Total Route Seats 49,880 

Total Route Revenues $7,196,188 

Total Route Costs $6,228,316 

Route Earnings $967,872 

Profit Margin 16% 

6.3 Summary and Findings 

The economic route analysis of potential commercial airline services at Griffiss 

International Airport produces results that are overall consistent with niche airline experiences in 

other similar markets. Airline accounting practices and modal alternatives (e.g. automobiles) 

tend to hamper the realizable revenue of these services. Further, because of the sensitive 

elasticity of demand for aviation services, operators risk significant loss of passengers if fares are 

raised beyond currently accepted levels. 

Both Allegiant and Spirit Airlines’ jet service to Florida destinations appear to be 

economic winners. This niche, leisure air service product fits well with Utica/Rome’s market 

profile in terms of destination, fare level and flight frequency. It is noteworthy that the overall 

Origin and Destination traffic from Albany and Syracuse to Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, and 

Miami, Florida totaled 187,390 in 2011. This large number indicates that Griffiss International 

should not have a problem in attracting passengers from the region. The expected route profits 

ranging from $380,000 to $675,000 for Allegiant Air service adds weight to these positive 

analysis results and should generate further interest by Allegiant in the Griffiss market. Although 

Spirit Airlines has not indicated an interest in serving Griffiss International Airport, this analysis 

provides information on the potential revenue and earnings that could be realized from initiating 

service. 

Commercial 

Service 

Flights/Year Cost/Year

Square 

Foot Gallon Total

Landing Fees 50 $300.00 - - $30,000.00

Lounge & Office Space - $12.00 1500 - $36,000.00

Fuel Uplift Fee 50 $0.08 0 2440 $19,520.00

NO PARKING FEES 50 $0.00 - - $0.00

$85,520

These fees will not be charged

Numbers are based on 2 years

Chad Lawrence

Acting Commissioner of Aviation

315-736-4171 W

315-736-0568 F

clawrence@ocgov.net

Oneida County Department of Aviation

592 Hangar Road, Suite 200

Rome, NY 13441

Telephone: 315-736-4171 / Fax: 315-736-0568

ANTHONY J. PICENTE, JR.

County Executive

Chad Lawrence

Acting Commissioner of 

Aviation
592 Hangar Road, Suite 200

Rome, NY 13441

Telephone: 315-736-4171 / Fax: 315-736-0568 ANTHONY J. PICENTE, JR.

County Executive

Chad Lawrence

Acting Commissioner of 

Aviation

SMALL COMMUNITY AIR SERVICE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

Oneida County, Griffiss International Airport

Financial Summary

Direct Airline Operating Subsidy $100,000.00

Marketing Program $100,000.00

Startup costs including setup and rental of Modular facilities for 24 

months $300,000.00

 Total Request $500,000.00

In-kind Service: Waiver of Airport Fees $85,520.00

Total Program $585,520.00
MODSPACE

GRAY SMART PANEL EXT.

HAMPTON GRAY VINYL GYPSUM

GRAY COMMERCIAL CARPETING

SUSPENDED CEILING

UNIT #'S

283167

291353

291494

592144

HVAC

CLOSET

MEN WOMEN

HVAC

HVAC

HVAC

ELECTRIC

PANEL

ELECTRIC

PANEL

ELECTRIC

PANEL

ELECTRIC

PANEL

UNIT #291353

UNIT #592144

UNIT #291494

UNIT #283167

48' X 60' 4-UNIT

SMART SPACE

48" Door

48" Door

6/5/12fjk

48'

7' 6' 6' 7'4 16'8

12' 4' 5' 3' 6' 6' 3' 5' 3'1 6' 2'11 10'

60'

2" 3"

3"