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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure ES-1. Analytical Flowchart for Primary Standards Analyses ..........................................5

Figure ES-2. Projected Ozone Design Values in the 2025 Baseline Scenario.............................7

Figure ES-3. Projected Ozone Design Values in the post-2025 Baseline Scenario...................10

Figure 2-1. Map of U.S. ambient O3 monitoring sites reporting data to EPA during the 

2009-2013 period.................................................................................................................7

Figure 2-2. Trend in U.S. Annual 4th Highest Daily Maximum 8-hour Ozone 

Concentrations in ppb, 2000 to 2013. Solid center line represents the median value 

across monitoring sites, dashed lines represent 25th and 75th percentile values, and 

top/bottom lines represent 10th and 90th percentile values.................................................8

Figure 2-3. Map of 8-hour Ozone Design Values in ppb, Averaged across the 2009-

2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013 Periods...........................................................................9

Figure 2-4. Trend in U.S. Annual W126 Concentrations in ppm-hrs, 2000 to 2013 Solid 

center line represents the median value across monitoring sites, dashed lines 

represent 25th and 75th percentile values, and top/bottom lines represent 10th and 

90th percentile values. .......................................................................................................10

Figure 2-5. Map of 3-year Average W126 Values in ppm-hrs, Averaged Across the 

2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013 Periods................................................................11

Figure 2-6. Map of 2007 CMAQ-estimated Seasonal Mean of 8-hour Daily Maximum 

Ozone from Natural Background (ppb) based on Zero-Out Modeling..............................14

Figure 2-7. Map of 2007 CMAQ-estimated Seasonal Mean of 8-hour Daily Maximum 

Ozone from North American Background (ppb) based on Zero-out Modeling ................15

Figure 2-8. Map of 2007 CMAQ-estimated Seasonal Mean of 8-hour Daily Maximum 

Ozone from United States Background (ppb) based on Zero-Out Modeling ....................15

Figure 2-8. Map of Site-Specific Ratios of U.S. Background to Total Seasonal Mean 

Ozone based on 2007 CMAQ Zero-Out Modeling............................................................18

Figure 2-9. Map of Site-Specific Ratios of Apportionment-Based U.S. Background to 

Seasonal Mean Ozone based on 2007 CAMx Source Apportionment Modeling .............18

Figure 2-10. Distributions of Absolute Estimates of Apportionment-Based U.S. 

Background (all site-days), Binned by Modeled MDA8 from the 2007 Source 

Apportionment Simulation.................................................................................................19
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xx

Figure 2-11. Distributions of the Relative Proportion of Apportionment-Based U.S. 

Background to Total Ozone (all site-days), Binned by Modeled MDA8 from the 

2007 Source Apportionment Simulation ...........................................................................19

Figure 3-1. Map of the CAMx Modeling Domain Used for Ozone NAAQS RIA ...................4

Figure 3-2. Map of Counties for Which Explicit Emissions Controls Were Identified and 

Modeled in CAMx (shaded in orange) and Counties that Contained One or More 

Monitor Projected above 70 ppb in the 2025 Base Case Modeling (shaded in blue)........12

Figure 3-3. Five U.S. Regions Used to Create Across-the-Board Emissions Reduction 

and Combination Cases......................................................................................................14

Figure 3-4. Map of VOC Impact Areas Applied in the Evaluation of a 60 ppb NAAQS.......21

Figure 3-5. Projected post-2025 Baseline Scenario May-September Mean of 8-hr Daily 

Maximum Ozone (ppb)......................................................................................................31

Figure 3-6. Change in May-September Mean of 8-hr daily Maximum Ozone (ppb) 

between the post-2025 Baseline Scenario and the post-2025 70 ppb Scenario.................32

Figure 3-7. Change in May-September Mean of 8-hr daily Maximum Ozone (ppb) 

between the post-2025 Baseline Scenario and the post-2025 65 ppb Scenario.................33

Figure 3-8. Change in May-September Mean of 8-hr Daily Maximum Ozone (ppb) 

between the post-2025 Baseline Scenario and the post-2025 60 ppb Scenario.................34

Figure 3-9. Projected post-2025 Baseline Scenario W126 Values (ppm-hrs).........................36

Figure 3-10. Projected post-2025 70 ppb Scenario W126 Values (ppm-hrs) ...........................37

Figure 3-11. Projected post-2025 65 ppb Scenario W126 Values (ppm-hrs) ...........................38

Figure 3-12. Projected post-2025 60 ppb Scenario W126 Values (ppm-hrs) ...........................39

Figure 3A-1. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the 

period May through September for the Northeast subregion, (a) AQS network and 

(b) CASTNet network. [symbol = median; top/bottom of box = 75th/25th 

percentiles; top/bottom line = max/min values]...................................................................6

Figure 3A-2. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the 

period May through September for the Southeast subregion, (a) AQS network and 

(b) CASTNet network..........................................................................................................7

Figure 3A-3. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the 

period May through September for the Midwest subregion, (a) AQS network and (b) 

CASTNet network. ..............................................................................................................7
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xxi

Figure 3A-4. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the 

period May through September for the Central states, (a) AQS network and (b) 

CASTNet network. ..............................................................................................................8

Figure 3A-5. Distribution of observed and predicted MDA8 ozone by month for the 

period May through September for the West, (a) AQS network and (b) CASTNet 

network. ...............................................................................................................................8

Figure 3A-6. Mean Bias (ppb) of MDA8 ozone greater than 60 ppb over the period MaySeptember 2011 at AQS and CASTNet monitoring sites in 12-km U.S. modeling 

domain.9

Figure 3A-7. Normalized Mean Bias (%) of MDA8 ozone greater than 60 ppb over the 

period May-September 2011 at AQS and CASTNet monitoring sites in 12-km U.S. 

modeling domain. ................................................................................................................9

Figure 3A-8. Mean Error (ppb) of MDA8 ozone greater than 60 ppb over the period MaySeptember 2011 at AQS and CASTNet monitoring sites in 12-km U.S. modeling 

domain.10

Figure 3A-9. Normalized Mean Error (%) of MDA8 ozone greater than 60 ppb over the 

period May-September 2011 at AQS and CASTNet monitoring sites in 12-km U.S. 

modeling domain. ..............................................................................................................10

Figure 3A-10a. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 60195001 in Fresno Co., California................................11

Figure 3A-10b. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 60710005 in San Bernardino Co., California..................12

Figure 3A-10c. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 80350004 in Douglas Co., Colorado...............................12

Figure 3A-10d. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 484392003 in Tarrant Co., Texas. ..................................13

Figure 3A-10e. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 480391004 in Brazoria Co., Texas. ................................13

Figure 3A-10f. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 551170006 in Sheboygan Co., Wisconsin. .....................14

Figure 3A-10g. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 261630019 in Wayne Co., Michigan. .............................14

Figure 3A-10h. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 211110067 in Jefferson Co., Kentucky...........................15
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xxii

Figure 3A-10i. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 420031005 in Allegheny Co., Pennsylvania...................15

Figure 3A-10j . Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for 

May through September 2011 at site 240210037 in Frederick Co., Maryland..................16

Figure 3A-10k. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 240251001 in Harford Co., Maryland.............................16

Figure 3A-10l. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 360810124 in Queens, New York...................................17

Figure 3A-10m. Time series of observed (black) and predicted (red) MDA8 ozone for May 

through September 2011 at site 361030002 in Suffolk County, New York......................17

Figure 3A-11. a) Depiction of governing wind patterns and topography. b) California 

Air Basins and sub-regions used for this analysis. Northern sub-region is outlined in 

pink and southern sub-region is outlined in blue...............................................................19

Figure 3A-12. Impact of 50% anthropogenic California NOx cuts (ppb) on 8-hr daily 

average ozone concentrations on three days in 2011.........................................................20

Figure 3A-13. Downwind California receptor regions for Northern California (green) 

and Southern California (purple) .......................................................................................21

Figure 3A-14. Impact of 50% US anthropogenic VOC cuts (ppb) on 8-hr daily average 

ozone concentrations on three days in 2011 ......................................................................22

Figure 3A-15. Change in July average of 8-hr daily maximum ozone concentration (ppb) 

due to 50% cut in US anthropogenic VOC emissions.......................................................23

Figure 3A-16. Projected change in 2025 ozone design values with an additional 75% 

regional NOx control (Southwest region; stars represent sites identified in Table 3A14) 55

Figure 3A-17. Location of sites identified in Table 3A-14. Colored dots categorize sites 

by the predominant source of ozone. Many sites may be influenced by more than 

one source but are placed in a single category for illustrative purposes in this figure. 

All ozone monitoring sites categorized as not substantially affected by natural or 

transported influences in Table 3A-14 are shown as small diamonds. Gray diamonds 

represent sites that had DVs less than or equal to 60 ppb in the 2025 baseline (or 

post-2025 baseline for California sites). Black diamonds represent sites that had 

DVs greater than 60 ppb in the 2025 baseline (or post-2025 baseline for California 

sites). 58

Figure 3A-18. Projected change in 2025 ozone design values with an additional 90% 

California NOx control (Southwest region; stars represent sites identified in Table 

3A-14) 60
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xxiii

Figure 3A-19. Daily 8-hr maximum ozone values at ozone monitor in Weminuche 

Wilderness area in La Plata County Colorado from 2009-2013. Horizontal line 

provided at 65 ppb. ............................................................................................................62

Figure 4-1. Counties Projected to Exceed the Baseline Level of the Current Ozone 

Standard (75 ppb) in 2025 Base Case ..................................................................................8

Figure 4-2. Counties Where Emissions Reductions Were Applied to Demonstrate 

Attainment of the Current Standard for the Baseline Analysis............................................9

Figure 4-3. Projected Ozone Design Values in the 2025 Baseline Scenario...........................12

Figure 4-4. Projected Ozone Design Values in the post-2025 Baseline Scenario...................13

Figure 4-5. Counties Where Emissions Reductions Were Applied to Demonstrate 

Attainment with a 70 ppb Ozone Standard in the 2025 Analysis......................................15

Figure 4-6. Counties Where Emissions Reductions Were Applied to Demonstrate 

Attainment with 65 and 60 ppb Ozone Standards in the 2025 Analyses...........................16

Figure 5-1. Illustration of BenMAP-CE Approach .................................................................13

Figure 5-2. Data Inputs and Outputs for the BenMAP-CE Program ......................................15

Figure 5-3. Procedure for Generating Benefits Estimates for the 2025 and Post-2025 

Scenarios............................................................................................................................16

Figure 5C-1. Premature O3-related Deaths Avoided for the Alternative Standards (2025 

scenario) According to the Baseline O3 Concentrations......................................................7

Figure 5C-2. Cumulative Probability Plot of Premature O3-related Deaths Avoided for the 

Alternative Standards (2025 scenario) According to the Baseline O3 Concentrations........8

Figure 5C-3. Percentage of Adult Population (age 30+) by Annual Mean PM2.5 Exposure 

in the Baseline Sector Modeling (used to generate the benefit-per-ton estimates)*..........12

Figure 5C-4. Cumulative Distribution of Adult Population (age 30+) by Annual Mean 

PM2.5 Exposure in the Baseline Sector Modeling (used to generate the benefit-per-ton 

estimates)* .........................................................................................................................13

Figure 6A-1. Cropland Area (sq m) by County according to NLCD 2006 data ..........................2

Figure 6A-2. Cropland Area (sq m) by County according to NLCD 2011 data ..........................3

Figure 6A-4. Forest Area (sq m) by County according to NLCD 2011 data ...............................4

Figure 6A-5. FASOMGHG Modeling Flowchart ......................................................................10

Figure 6A-6. Ozone Reductions with Respect to 75 ppb under Alternative Scenarios .............15
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xxiv

Figure 6A-7. Percentage Changes in Corn RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario ...........17

Figure 6A-8. Percentage Changes in Cotton RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario ........18

Figure 6A-9. Percentage Changes in Potato RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb Scenario.........19

Figure 6A-10. Percentage Changes in Sorghum RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb 

Scenario 20

Figure 6A-11. Percentage Changes in Soybean RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb 

Scenario 21

Figure 6A-12. Percentage Changes in Winter Wheat RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb 

Scenario 22

Figure 6A-13. Percentage Changes in Softwood RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb 

Scenario 23

Figure 6A-14. Percentage Changes in Hardwood RYGs with Respect to the 75 ppb 

Scenario 24

Figure 6A-15. Carbon Storage in Forestry Sector, MMtCO2e.................................................42

Figure 7-1. Marginal Costs for Known NOx Controls for All Source Sectors (EGU, nonEGU Point, Nonpoint, and Nonroad)...................................................................................5

Figure 7-2. Observed but incomplete MACC (solid line) based on known controls 

identified by current tools and complete MACC (dashed line) where gaps indicate 

abatement not identified by current tools...........................................................................11

Figure 10-1. Size Distribution of 159 Existing Coal-Fired EGU Units without SCR NOx 

Controls..............................................................................................................................11