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## Document

Number: 

# 21 ) ll-B-1 0 Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 2

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UNITE D STATE S ENVIRONMENTA L PROTECTIO NAGENC Y

SCIENC E ADVISOR YBOAR D CLEA N AI RSCIENTIFI C ADVISORYCOMMITTE E

LEAD EXPOSUR E SUBCOMMITTE E

Ope nMeetin g

Unite dState s Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y Mal l Level , Conferenc e Roo m Nort h3 40 1 M Street , Southwes t Washington , D . C . 2046 0 Tuesday , Octobe r 25 , 198 8

9:3 0 a.m . ) 

### EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 3

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v-b' 2 4 2 5 AP F ••' [•.- . AR ANL- b . o

DR . TIMOTH YLARSON , Chairma n Env i ronmep-ita l Eng i nee r i n g an d Scienc e Progra m

Departmen t oi

C i v i 1 E:"igineer i n g Uni ve r s i t yC P f Wa s hi ng t ' D n A . ROBER T FLAAK , Executiv e Secretar y

Env i r onmen t a 1 S c i e n t i s t S c i enc e A d v i so r yB o a r p d Unite d State s Envi r c > n ment a 1 P r o

t e >::: t i o

n Ag e nc y Membe r s >:;p

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i 1 1 e e DR . J . JULIA NCHISOLM , J R Associat e Professo r Johns . Hopkin s Schoo l o f Med i c i n e

DR . SCOT T CLAR K Professo r o f Environmenta l Healt h Departmen t o f Environmenta l Healt h Universit yo f Cincinnat i Medica l Cente r

DR . IA Nvo nLINDER N Presiden t Terragraphic s Environmenta l Engineerin g DR . KATHRY NR . MAHAFFE Y S c i e nc e Advi s o r 0 f f i c e o f t he D i r e c t o r Nationa l Institut e ci f E n vi r onme n t a 1 Healt h S c i ence s DR . PAU L MUSHA K Consultan t an d Adjunc t P r ofesso r Un i ve r s i t yo

f Na r t hC a r o

1 i na DR . MICHAEL . B . RABINOWIT Z Inves t i gatc« r Marin e Biologica l Laborator y DR . ROBER T D . ROW E Seni'^ r Vic e Presiden t RCG/Hagler , Reilly , Inc . E'^rii.ci.gant s Jro mEnvironmental . E'£*ii?£ilo n Agenc y

JEF F M . COHE N

JOH NH . HAINE S Offic e o f Ai r Qualit yPlannin g Offic e o f Ai r Qualit yPlannin g andAssessmen t an d Assessmen t DR . ROBER T W . ELIA S EnviriDnmenta l Criteri a an d Assessmen t Offic e

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S DR . DAVI D W . McLAM B Offic e p;' f Ai r Qualit yPlannin g an d Assessmen t

(301 ) 565-006 4P. 4

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 0 1 he r s P r s s e n t

DR . ALLA NH . MARCU S Battell e Memoria l Institut e JAME S GILCHRIST , ESQUIR E Re pr e sen t i n g th e Am e r i c a n Minin g C o

ng r e s s GAL E HOFFNAGL E TRC : E n vi r PDnmen t a 1 Consu1 1 an t s EDWAR D SEEGER , ESQUIR E Re p r e s e nt i nqL e a dI nc l u s t r i e H Assoc i a t i o n JOH NYODE R L e a d In d u s tri e s As s o c i a t i o n

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 "ABL E O F CObH'ENT S

WELCOM E AN D INTRODUCTIO N Dr . Timoth yCohen , Chairma n OPENIN GREMARK S A . Robev t Flaak , Executiv e Secretar y

OVERVIE WO F DRAF T DOCUMEN T AN D SUBCOMMITTE E COMMENT S Mr . J o hnH a i n e s Mr . Jef f M . Cohe n PUBLI C COMMENT S AN D GENERA L DISCUSSION* ' Publi c Comments : Gal e Hoffnagle , TR C E n vi ronmenta l Consu1 1 ant s CAS E STUD YRESULT S AN D DISCUSSIO N Mr . Jef f M . Cohe n Dr . Davi d W . McLam b A . Rober t Flaa k

CHAIRMAN' S SUMMAR Y GENERA L DISCUSSIO N 9 1 1

3 9

12 2 13 2 13 9 14 1 14 2

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 6

RV AL L 1

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### PROCEEDING S

CHAIRMA

NTIMOTH YLARSON : W e wil l cal l th e meetin g ti n order . Thi s i s th e Subcommitte e o f CASA C meetin g o n Lea d Exposure . WELCOM E AND INTRODUCTIO N

CHAIRMA

NLARSON : I woul d welcom e everybod yhere . W e are gla d t o hav e a distinguishe d group o f peopl e t>: p b e abl e t o revie wth e Exposur e Draf t document .

I woul d lik e f>:>

r everyon e t o introduc e themselve s briefly , includin g anybodyi n th e audienc e wh o woul d lik e to .

M ynam e i s Ti mLarson . I amth e Chairma no f thi s Subcommittee . I ami nth e Environmenta l Engineerin g and Science s Progra ma t th e Universit yo f Washington . I amals o a membe r o f CASAC .

A s th e on e leadin g th e charg e here , s o t o speak , I amrelyin g o nth e particula r expertis e w e hav e her e o n lead . S o I am

ver yintereste d i n people' s comments . DR . CHISOLM : I amJulia n Chisolm . I amfrom Baltimore , intereste d i n lea d poisoning .

DR . vo nLINDERN : I amIan vo n Linder nfrom Moscow , Idaho . I hav e worke d o nlea d smelters .

DR . MAHAFFEY : I amKat e Mahaffe yfromNationa l Institut e o f Envir-rmmenta l Healt hSciences .

DR . McLAMB : I amDav e McLambwit hth e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 7



### 6 1 Environmenta l Protectio nAgency , Offic e iin f Ai r Qualit y 2 Plannin g an d Standards . I d o relate d document s o nlea d 3 NAAQS , fi^

r instanc e regulator yimpac t analyse s an d thos e 4 analyse s whic hbuil dit . 5 MR . HAINES : I a m Joh nHaine s wit hth e Offic e o f 6 Ai r Qualit yPlannin gan dStandards . I wor k wit hJef f wit h 7 respec t t o th e NAAQ S review . 8 MR . COHEN : I a m Jef f Cohen . I wor k wit hJoh n 9 Haines . 1 0 [Laughte r D 1 1 DR . MARCUS : Alle nMarcus , Battelle , Researc h 1 2 Triangl e Park , Nort hCarolina . I a m consultan t t o Offic e o f 1 3 Ai r Qualit y

Plannin gan dStandards . 1 4 DR . CLARK : Scot t Clark , Universit y o f Cincinnati ; 1 5 involve di nlea dstudie s an dsoi l abatement . 1 6 DR . RABINOWITZ : I a m Michae l Rabinowitz . I a m a 1 7 geochemis t a t Children' s Hospita l i nBoston . 1 8 DR . MUSHAK : Pau l Mushak , consultant , adjunc t 1 9 facult y

a t th e Universit y o f Nort hCarolina . 2 0 DR . ROWE : I a m Bo bRow e wit hRCG/Hagler , Bailly ; 21 an dI' m

a chemist . 2 2 MR . FLAAK : I am Bo bFlaak . I a m th e Executiv e 2 3 Secretar y

o f CASAC . B y

training , I a m

a marin e ecologist , 2 4 bu t b y

inclinatio nI hav e bee ndoin gthi s fo r a lon gtime . 2 5 Member s o f th e audience , woul dyo umin d

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 24 2 5 introducin g y•- •u rs e 1 ve s b ri e f1 y? DR

. E L IAS : I ' m Ro b E 1 i a. s , E n vi vo n ment a 1 C r iteri a a n d Assessmen tOffic e a tRTP .

M R . Y0 D E R : I ' m J o h n Yo d e rfro m L e a d I n d u s tri e s Assoc i a ti on .

MR . HDFFNAGLE : Gal e Hoffnagle , TR C Environmenta l C'Dnsu l tants .

MR . SEEGER : E d Seeger , attorne yfp:> r Lea d Indust r i e s Assoc i at i on .

MR . GILCHRIST : I a mJir n Gilchrist , attorne yfo r th e America nMinin g Congress . OPENIN GREMARK S

MR . FLAAK : I hav e a coupl e o f openin g remarks , brief1y . Th e large r microphone s i nfron t o f yo u ar e th e one s fo r th e speake r system ; th e smalle r one s ar e th e one s fo r th e Cour t Reporter . I f yo u hav e somethin g t o emphasise , don' t pul l u p th e Cour t Reporter' s microphon e u p t o yo u becaus e sh e wil l jum p righ t ou t o f he r chair .

[Laughter ] Thi s particula r Subcommitte e i s a Subcommitte e 'I' f th e Clea nAi r Scientifi c Advisor yCommittee . Normally , ou r subcommittee s are chaire d b ya membe r o f th e ful l CASAC , whic hDr . Larso nis : on e o f th e seve nstatutor ymembers .

Th e purppips e o f thi s Subcommitte e revie wi s tpi p

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 9



# U. 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 8 revie wa draf t documen t tha t wa s complete d bac k i nAugus t p.:i n th e Lea d Exposur e Analysis , Methodolog yan d Validation . Thi s documen t ha s bee nreviewe d b yth e Committee .

Comment s hav e bee nsubmitte d to th e Agenc yan d thes e comment s are par t o f th e discussio nfo r a goo d par t o f thi s discussio nfo r today .

Whe nMr . Cohe nget s int o hi s remarks , h e wil l explai na littl e furthe r wh yw e are doin g thi s an d wha t w e hop e t o ge t ou t o f it .

Fo r th e purpose s o f thos e member s onthi s pane l wh o hav e no t bee nwit hu s before , w e operat e i nth e publi c ey e unde r th e Federa l Advisor y Committe e Act . Al l o f ou r meeting s are

hel dinth e public . Mos t o f th e CASA C meeting s ar e full y transcribe d an dcopie s o f th e transcriptio nar e availabl e usuall y abou t tw o week s afte r th e meeting .

Fo r any

handou t materia l or othe r document s tha t yo udon' t manag e t o ge t a cop y o f whil e yo uare her e today , pleas e advis e me . I wi1 1 se e tha t yo uge t a cop y som e tim e afte r th e meeting .

Tim , d o yo uhav e anythin gelse ? CHAIRMAN

LARSON : No , no t a t thi s time . MR . FLAAK : W e wil l tur ni t ove r t o John . 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 OVERVIE WO F DRAF TDOCUMEN TAN D SUBCOMMITTE E COMMENT S dLi

. sE°.b. Q dli.Q H

MR . HAINES : I woul d lik e t o begi n b ythankin g th e Subcommitte e fo r thei r comments . The yprove d mos t helpfu l t o us . I speciall yappreciat e th e tim e spen t preparin g them .

A s yo u ans

al l aware , the ? Exposur e Analysi s i s a ke ycomponen t o f ou r ongoin g revie wo f th e Lea d NAAQS . Yo u ma yrecall , th e Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc yfirs t se t th e NAAQ S fo r lea d i n 1978 .

Unde r th e Clea nAi r Act , th e Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc yi s require d t o periodicall yrevie wal l Nationa l Ai r Qualit yStandard s an d th e underlyin g healt h criteri a o nwhic hthe yare based . A s yo u know , i n198 6 th e Environmenta l Criteri a an d Assessmen t Offic e complete d th e updat e an d revisiion s t o th e Ai r Qualit yCriteri a fo r lead , an d CASA C close d o ntha t documen t i nAugus t 1986 .

I n earl y1986 , w e prepare d a draf t o f ou r staf f pape r whic hwen t befor e CASAC . A s par t o f tha t session , CASA C ampon

g othe r thing s recommende d tha t th e staf f refin e it s lea d exposur e methodolog yan d conduc t appropriat e validat i on . A s th e resul t o f thos e recommendations , w e hav e produce d th e draf t repor t tha t i s i nfron t o f yo u toda yfo r revie wan d comment .

) • • EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 1

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# y 1

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### 1 0

Als o becaus e w e vie wthi s documen t a s importan t w e hav e aske d Bo ban d th e SAB and CASA C t o pu t togethe r a Subcommitte e tha t coul d specificall yfocu s i n'o n the- ? exposur e methodolog yand validatio n work . W e thin k it' s importan t tha t thi s receive a ver ythoroug hreview .

Thi s wil l hopefull y plac e u s ina posi t i'o n tha t w e ca nmove aheadan

dpul l togethe r th e nex t draf t of th e staf f paper , an

dbe abl e t o bas e ou r projection s of f th e methodology

set forthhere . Jus t fo

r th e poin t o f vie w o f th e audience , th e comment s submitte db y the Subcommitte e member s hav e bee n place dinthe Docket . S o they are availabl e t o youfolk s i f yo uwoul dlik e t o review them . T o facilitat e today' s discussion , Jef f wil l provid e a brie f overview o f ho w th e exposur e methodolog y relate s t o th e NAAQ S review . Thenh e wil l procee dt o provid e a review

o f th e Subcommittee' s comments . We hav e trie dt o groupthos e comment s int o majo r categorie s an

dou r response s t o them . S o youcanse e collectivel y

wha t th e group' s comment s wer e an dho w w e plac e t o addres s them .

A s show

nonth e agenda , thi s afternoo nJef f wil l presen t fo

r th e Subcommittee' s informatio nsome initia l result s fro

m two cas e studie s we hav e done . Ther e wil l b e a n opportunit y

t o discus s thos e briefly . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 2

1 1 1 A t th e en d o f th e da yafte r Jef f an d Dav e McLamb , 2 w e wil l ou t line.som e o f th e relate dactivities . Jef f wil l 3 tal k ab'ou t som e othe r potentia l application s fo r th e mode l 4 outsid e ou r immediat e program ; Dav e wil l tal k abou t ho wi t 5 wil l fi t int o ou r regulator yimpac t analysi s an d tha t work . 6 Finally , I wan t t o reiterat e tha t Alla nMarcu s ha s 7 bee nworkin g ver yclosel ywit hJef f an d th e staf f o nth e 8 developmen t o f th e exposur e model . Bo bElia s ha s provide d 9 invaluabl e inpu t tp; i u s a s well . 1 0 Ar e yo u read yt o go , Jeff ? 1 1 MR . COHEN : Okay . 1 2 Mr_.

_Jgf_f

_M.

_Cohe n 1 3 MR . COHEN : Again , I wan t t o than k yo u al l fo r th e 1 4 comments . W e wer e hopin g fo r th e leve l o f detai l w e actuall y 1 5 received . I t wil l b e ver yusefu l t o u s i nfinalizin g th e 16 report . 1 7 I wan t t o star t ou t b y lookin ga t th e Lea dAi r 1 8 Standar drevie w process . Yo uca nse e wher e th e lea dexposur e 1 9 modelin gfit s i nan dwher e ou r repor t i s t'l-day . Yo uca nals o 2 0 se e th e differen t point s o f CASA C review . 21 Fo r example , her e a t th e criteri a documen t 2 2 assessmen t ther e i s a revie w o f th e benefit s analysi s 2 3 methodolog y

abou t a yea r ago . W e are plannin go ngoin gt o 2 4 CASA C wit ha draf t staf f pape r i nearl y 1989 . 2 5 Thi s pape r wil l incorporat e result s o f th e lea d 

## J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 3

) 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 2 exposur e modelin g an d als o fol d i nth e overal l healt hris k assessment . Th e staf f pape r wil l the n serv e a s a basi s fcv r t he r e c IDmm e nda t i o ns t o t he Admi ni s t r a t o r o na 1 1 e r na t i ve standards . Ther e s ho u 1 d be a n o t he r a r r o where , a c t u a 1 1 y , f r c i m th e cas e stud yblood-lea d estimate s t o th e benefit s analysis . W e wil l tal k abou t tha t a t th e en d '~' f th e clay .

Jus t t o remin d u s all , unlik e th e othe r criteri a ai r pollutant s tha t w e hav e t o review , lea d ha s establishe d itsel f i n man ydifferen t pathway s o f exposure . S o i t i s a uniqu e exposur e proble mfo r us .

W e nee d t o develo p differen t kind s o f exposur e methodologies .

Thi s summarize s th e differen t method s tha t w e hav e develpi-ped , al l accountin g fo r ai r an d wel l a s non-ai r sources , especiall yric hi nfutur e trend s i ngasolin e an d d i et . Th e disaggregat e mode l combine s separat e relationship s betwee nbloo d lea d an d lea d i ndiet , soil , dus t a s wel l a s ai r lea d fro mth e literature . I t i s adopte d fro m th e criteri a document .

W e mad e som e change s t o reflec t newe r data . Lik e th e aggregat e model , i t assume s a blood-lea d equilibriu mwit h historica l exposures .

Whil e th e disaqqreqat e mode l ha s a nai r blood-lea d

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. M

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 15 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 21 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 3 leve l tha t reall yreflect s prett ymuc hinhalation , th e a g g r e g a t e mode 1 s 1 op e include s effe c t s o f ind i rec t a i r 1ea d exposure : dus t an d sp;:' i 1 .

Th e uptak e biokineti c mode l use s age-specifi c intake s 'D

n a dail ybasi s fro meac hpathway , a s wel l a s age specifi c absorptio nfactors . Blood-lea d an d tissue-lea d level s are

governe d bya linea r biokineti c m^Dde l whos e growt h an d metaboli c factor s chang e wit hage .

On e o f th e advantage s w e se e i nth e mode l i s tha t i t ca nexplicitl yestimat e th e effects.o f relativel yrapi d changes . On e o f th e feature s o f th e biokineti c uptak e mode l i s tha t i t require s a larg e variet y o f assumption s i ninpu t data . Thi s list s th e parameter s tha t w e discus s i nth e report . W e note , jus t a s background , whic hone s appea r t o b e strongl y

influentia l i npredictin gchildren' s bloo dleads . Thos e ar e th e one s o nwhic hw e conducte dvariou s sensitivit y analyses . Again , jus t t o remin dus , give nth e availabl e dat a th e model s estimat e averag e exposur e conditions . W e are concerne dno t onl y wit hth e mea nbloo dlead , bu t wit huppe r percentile s o f bloo dleads .

Give na mea nbloo dlea dan dth e fac t tha t bloo d lead s are

distribute dlea dnormal , w e ca ncalculat e

- A EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 4 d i s t ributi o r i s u s i n g a g e o i n etri c standar d deviatio n i n t hi s case . Th e valu e tha t w e ar e proposin g t o us e i s derive d from a -point-sourc e standard . I t i s coincidenta l 1 yidentica l ti:: i tha t whic happeare d i n th e criteri a documen t fro mth e NH 2 analysis . Thi s lis t i s fo r th e differen t sub-populations . W e go t severa l comment s o nthis . Ther e wa s a littl e confusio nwhic hmodel s ar e bein g use d fo r wha t populations .

Fo r youn g children , w e hav e thre e model s w e fee l tha t ^^re

available . W e are proposin g tha t th e uptak e biokineti c mp;>de

l i s th e on e o f choice . F'D r adults , give nth e lac k o f dat a o nbiokinetics , fo r exampl e durin g pregnancy , w e fee l tha t thi s mode l i s th e approp r i at e on e t o use . On e o f th e reason s no t t o us e th e mor e detaile d mode l fo r adult s i s tha t i t woul d requir e larg e amount s o f inpu t dat a g>:iin g bac k i nhistor yt o accoun t fp:> r thei r long-ter mexposure .

A s Bo bmentioneed , th e bul k o f ou r tal k today , thi s mornin g a t least , wil l b e tryin g t o clarif yth e issue s raise d i nth e comment s tha t w e receive d fro myou .

W e are goin g t o tr yt o g o throug hthe mquickly , bu t i nenoug hdetai l tha t everyon e understand s n<;p t onl you r understandin g o f th e comments , bu t ou r responses .

W e hav e comment s o nthes e issue s here . W e wil l

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4.•/> ? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 5 hav e discussio nlate r i nth e day . I f anyon e want s t o tal k a bou t o n e t h i n g i np a r t icular , i n detai 1 1 ater , w e wi1 1 b e gla d t o pu t thi s slid e bac k on .

I thin k ther e i s a numbe r o neac ho f th e slide s BO

w e ca nreadil yfin d it .

W e hav e severa l comment s o n th e •:: • r ga n i z at i o n an d presentatio no f th e report , especiall yo nth e nee d t'~ p clarif y th e overal l pla nan d ho wthi s exposur e analysi s fit s i ntc p th e revie wo f th e standard . W e nee d to discus s a littl e bi t more , a s well , implication s fo r regulator yactions : Wha t model s are bein g use d fo r wha t population s an d why ?

Bot ho f thos e comments , I think , w e wil l tr yto addres s wit ha nexpande d introductio nwher e w e clarif yth e use s o f th e variou s models . W e are als o goin g t o hav e th e Executiv e Summar ywhic hI thin k wil l hel p th e reade r focu s i n o n wha t i s important .

Ho wwil l difference s i nblood-lea d result s b e resolved ? W e are plannin g o npresentin g result s fro mal l o f th e models . Again , w e ar e proposin g tha t onl yth e mid-p<:'in t result s fro mth e uptak e biokineti c mode l fo r childre n an d th e disaggregat e mode l fo r adult s b e use d fo r furthe r analyses .

Ther e wa s a commen t fo r u s t o defin e th e blood

lea d en d points , whic hw e wil l b e mor e specifi c on: np:> t onl y th e mea nblood-lead , bu t percentag e o f level s abov e selecte d

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 7



### 1 6 1 blood-lea d cutoffs . 2 W e wij . 1 tal k abou t som e levee I s late r toda ya s a n 3 exampl e whe nw e presen t case-stud yresults . 4 CHAIRMA NLARSON : I f an ySubcommitte e member s hav e 5 an yresponse s o r comments , pleas e fee l fre e t o voic e them . 6 MR . FLAAK : Yes . 7 Now , w e wil l briefl yg o throug hth e comment s 8 classifie d byth e section s i nth e report , startin g wit hair

9 lea d wher e w e ha d som e informatio no nnon-attainmen t areas . 1 0 Tha t i s a goo d idea . W e are goin gt o ad dsom e mor e recen t 1 1 ai r qualit y

dat a t o tha t I wil l sho w i na minute . 12 W e ca ntal kabou t non-attainmen t problem s a s well , 1 3 then . 1 4 Ther e ar e severa l comment s o nth e gasolin e phase 1 5 down . W e wil l g o throug hthes e sequentially . 1 6 W e shoul ddiscus s tha t th e dat a o nautomotiv e 1 7 airborn e lea di s use dinterchangeabl y wit hdat a from

poin t 1 8 sources . I thin kGrange r Morga nmad e tha t comment . H e i s 1 9 no t her e today . 2 0 W e wil l g o bac kan dchec ktha t w e ar e clea r o n 2 1 this , bu t al l th e dat a tha t w e us e for exposur e estimate s are 2 2 point-sourc e specific : fo r exampl e respirator y depositio n 2 3 efficiencies , soi l an ddus t level , an ds o forth . 2 4 Ther e ar e comment s t o illustrat e th e rapi ddeclin e 2 5 i nai r lea dbecaus e o f th e phase-down . Again , w e hav e som e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 8

)

.'•*ii». r i 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 23 24 25 1 7 mor e recen t dat a I wil l sh'D wyou . o nth e nex t slide . W e discus s th e impact s o f th e declin e o nexposure ? estimates . Again , w e wil l g o bac k an d chec k o nthis . W e m::'t e thi s i n severa l place s i n th e report . W e wil l tr ytc.: ' highligh t tha t somewher e i n th e front .

Acommen t tha t i nestimatin g a futur e baselin e blood-lea d level , w e usep d th e gasc;p.lin

e b l cDd- l ea d regressio n analyse s tha t wer e don e a fe wyear s ag o an d tha t wer e updated , actually , i nth e ATSD RReport .

W e shoul d discus s th e problem s o f extrapolatin g thos e result s t'i" ppi'in t source s i nrura l area s an d whethe r p;i r no t i t i s approp r i at e t o assum e th e sam e shap e o f th e blood lea ddistributio nbefor e an d afte r th e phase-down .

W e foun dtha t althoug hther e i s a differen t interse t t o th e gasoline/lea dr e l a t i iDnsh i p, th e slop e coefficien t i nth e analysi s wa s almos t identica l for bot h popula t i ons .

W e are usin gtest s t o mak e th e distributio no f PSD-directe dpoin t sources , althoug hi t turn s ou t t o b e identica l t o th e analyse s result .

Her e i s som e o f th e dat a tha t w e are goin gt o b e addin gt o th e report . Yo uca nse e th e trend s i nai r qualit y ove r th e las t seve nyear s an dth e dramati c decline s tha t hav e occurre di nurba narea s i nthes e roadside—oriente dmonitors .

Thi s i s especiall y eviden t lookin ga t th e ) EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.19

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 8 microscal e site s whic har&specificall ydesigne d t o pic k u p hig himpac t lea d emission s fro mbus yroadways . W e hav e som e mor e recen t dat a o nn a t i onw i d e mo n i t o r i n g tha t work s a s we11 .

DR . CLARK : Wha t i s th e middlether e o n tha t chart ? Wha t i s tha t th e middl e of ?

MR . COHEN : I t i s calle d a middle-scal e sit e an d i t ha s a furthe r setbac k fro ma somewha t less-travele d roadwa ytha nwha t th e microscal e monito r pick s up . I a mn>:> t sur e o f th e exac t traffic .

Th e neighborhoo d scal e sit e i s a smalle r roadwa y se t bac k a littl e farther .

W e go t severa l comment s o nou r discussio no f soi l an d dus t lea d an d th e problem s i ncomparin g differen t dat a fro mvariou s studies ; also , tha t difference s i nparticl e siz e ma yeffec t G I uptak e I f leade d dust .

W e recogniz e thos e problems . On e o f th e thing s w e tr yt o d o i s confin e ou r us e o f dat a t o thos e studie s tha t collecte d th e uppe r laye r o f soil : i nothe r words , tha t laye r tha t childre nare mos t expose dto . Ther e are , o f course , remainin gvariation s i nsoi 1 an ddus t level s amon g variou s location s an d tha t i s reflecte d i nth e uptak e estimates , especiall y i nth e differenc e o f blood-lea dsoi l anddust-lea dslit s a s talke dabou t i nth e criteri a document ; bu t w e agre e tha t w e shoul dhighligh t tha t a littl e bi t mor e . 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 9

Ther e wa s a questio no nwh ywa s th e dat a fro m Silve r Valley , Idaho . Tha t wa s a close d facility . Nevertheless , ther e are dat a i n ther e tha t w e thin k ar e reall yuseful , especiall yth e soi l an d dus t sli t response s CPve r t i in

e t o negligibl e ai r lead . W e are going . tp

D tr yt o ad d S'Dm e o f thct t dat a a s i t i s avai1able .

A s fa r a s th e soi1- 1 ead/blood-lea d relationshi p analyse s tha t CB C presented , w e ar e informe d tha t i t i s no t comparabl e t o th e othe r dat a tha t w e site . W e hav e aske d CD C fo r furthe r re-analyses .

Ther e wa s a commen t tha t th e Milki e Stud y attribute dtiiO'D muc ho f th e soil-leadin gi ndowntow nBaltimor e t o automobil e emissipDn s give nth e prevalenc e p:> f ol dhome s wit hlea d pain t trim .

W e ar e goin gt o clarif y that . W e are

goin gt o incorporat e tha t commen t and , also , ad dsom e supportin gdat a fro m Chicago .

Thes e nex t tw>

Dbasicall y

ar e suggestin gtha t w e ad dsom e supppDrtingdat a from Cincinnat i andBosto no nsoil , onstree t andhous e dust , ando nsoi1/blood-lea d relationships : addbot hth e Q-H YandMike' s paper .

Ther e wa s a commen t tha t th e Dutc hdat a o f Clause n ma y b e unrepresentative . Infact , th e result s are prett y muc hconsisten t wit hth e Binder , e t a l finding s from Eas t

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 'J.O Helena . On e thin g w e di d wa s onl yus e th e Dutc hdata , th e contro l dat a result s fro mth e hospitalise d children . W e though t i t wa s necessa r y t o cPOrrec t th e Binde r dat a f o r elementa l abs«orptipon fro mth e die t o f those ? trac e elements. '

I n fact , tha t i s somethin g tha t ha s bee n incorporate d intpo th e ongoin g Environmenta l Protectio n Agenc y studie s i n Washingt>o n Stat e an d th e U-Mass/Amhurs t studie s fro mCalabres e an d Gilbert .

W e are goin g tp

o ad d thos e data . Hopefull ythe y wil l b e availabl e soon .

Ther e wa s a cpommen t tha t w e shoul d referenc e som e o f th e high-soi l lea d problem s aroun d facilitie s pothe r tha n smelters , variou s manufacturin g facilities . W e trie d t o us e al l th e dat a tha t w e kne wabou t fro mth e literature .

I f anyon e ha s anythin g i n thei r files , w e woul d b e gla d t o ad d it .

W e nee d t o clarify , I think , th e distinctio n betwee nstree t dus t andsoi l dust . Tha t concept , I guess , appeare di nth e criteri a documen t whic hw e referre dto .

W e ca ntr y

t o clarif y

tha t a littl e bi t more . W e reall y us e tha t i nan y quantitativ e way . Ther e wer e variou s comment s o ndietar ylead : one , tha t th e FD A

estimate s o f lea dintak e ar e uncertai nan d ca n underestimat e i na lo t o f cases . Th e repor t t o Congres s

> EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 2

) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 1 p o i nt s o u t a 1 o t o f t ho s e p r P O b1 e ms . I thin k w e ca n refe r bac k t o tha t discussio n i n th e repor t fo r that ; bu t jus t t o emphasize , th e dietary

estimate s tha t w e us e an d tha t are i n tha t re p por t t o do n gras s reall yrepresen t typica l baselin e levels .

The yar e not . intende d t o captur e th e high-leve l intake s tha t certainl yexist .

On e o f th e thing s w e hop e t o achiev e b yusin g th e GS D i s t o captur e tha t variabilit yi n exposur e patterns . I thin k w e ca n ad d som e compariso n betwee n th e estimate s tha t

w e com e u p wit hthroug hRobbs ' mode l an d th e ATSD Restimates . The yar e actuall yver ysimilar .

Tha t i s interestin g t o poin t out : the yar e simila r no t onl yfo r years , bu t fo r specifi c age/se xcategories .

Ther e wa s a commen t tha t ou r water-lea d projections , base d o n Offic e o f Drinkin g Water' s estimate s fro m thei r Augus t proposal , wer e a littl e optimistic . W e agree d abou t th e uncertaint yi n thos e projection s resultin g fro mmo t onl yth e priopose d revision s t o th e standard , bu t th e recen t solde r ban .

W e are jus t no t sur e ho wan yo f tha t i s goin g t o fal l out . W e fee l that , t o b e ctonservative , i t i s probabl y bette r t o maintai n futur e drinking-wate r level s a t curren t concentrations .

W e go t som e revise d inpu t fro m OD Wt o suppor t

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 3

/

St-'v . m'A

,r > - .liv'*»A'. ? .-....iA...-r1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 

# V;-: : tha t . Mpos t .o f th e dat a tha t w e cit e .o n dietar ylea d wer e base d io

n pos t —197 8 estimates . Mik e pointe d ou t tha t w e shoul d not e th e declin e tha t occurre d befor e 1978 .

DR . MA H AF F E Y : I s i t p > o s s i b1 e t o

g e t a n y

m o r e

r e c e nt d a t a i n th e las t f e wy e a r s ? MR . COHEN : O n water-lead ? DR . MAHAFFEY : O n diet . MR . COHEN : I th i n k w e are usin g 1986 . 

### MR . HAINES : 198 5 wa s th e las t tha t relate s t o that . MR . COHEN : 1985 ?

MR . HAINES : I

t i s jus t abou t time t o ge t th e next batc havailable . I nfact , w

e wil l probabl y

have the

m withi n th e next thre e months .

DR . MAHAFFEY : A s I understandfo r th e curren t month' s data , the number s are even1 power . MR . HAINES : Ther e ha s bee na definit e trend . MR . COHEN : I f youkno w a wa y fo r u s t o get that , tha t woul dbe very helpful . W

e wil l try

t> o referenc e tha t pre-197 8 data .

I nfact , tha t kin

do f dat a helpe dvalidat e th e tota l food—leve l criteri a document . S o it i s a goodpioin t tha t we shoul dhav e it .

W e shoul dnot e tha t lipid s inlactos e ma y increas e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 4



# J 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 20 2 1 22 23 2 4 25 lea d absorption ; an d w e shoul d modif you rstatemen tabiou t fa 5 1 i n g a d u 1 1 s . Th e i ra b s o rp ti o n ra te :i

. s p ro b a b 1 y

c1 o s e rtio tki at C

P fP : ki i 1 d rp

= n . I n bot ho f thos e w e wil l mak e thos e changes . DR . MAHAFFEY : Anothe r poin t i n ther e i s tha t I dpon' t thin k ther e are man ystudie s o nfastin g childre nsi o tha t tha t absiorpti'On rate ? coul d b e eve nhigher .

MR . COHEN : Yes . W e hav e severa l comment s o nho wtp o improv e ou r discussio n i n pain t iead . Al l o f the mwil l b e incorporated .

Ther e i s a questio non whethe r o r mo t ther e i s an y mpor e recen t housin g data . I d-on' t kno wo f any . I f anyon e know s >o

f anything , agai nw e wil l b e happ yt o incorporat e it . W e are talkin g abou t th e prevalenc e o f lead

painte d home s acros s th e country .

Ther e wa s a genera l agreemen t wit hou r approac ht o exclud e fro mth e analyse s kid s wit hhig hpaint-lea d exposures . Tha t i s a nissu e tha t w e brough t up wit hth e ful l Committe e i n1986 . The yendorse d tha t approach .

Althoug hi nthi s repor t w e probabl yshoul d mak e i t clea r tha t w e are under-estimatin g potentia l benefit s t o childre nwit hsignifican t lea d exposures , w e di d d o a simplisti c analysi s i non e o f th e appendice s illustratin g th e potentia l impac t o f pain t lea d relativ e t o thes e othe r exposure s tha t w e ar e talkin g about . W e ca nhighligh t tha t

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 4

up fron t a littl e bi t (more .

W e hav e comment s po n Sectiio n V , whic hi s th e sectio n wher e w e tal k ab'out th e aggregate/disaggregat e model . Thi ng s gCJt a littl e c 1 u t tered .

T o mak e thing s reall ysimple , w e ar e goin g t o remov e th e tabl e tha t contain s al l th e detaile d data . W e d' O wan t t' O kee?p th e tabl e afte r tha t wher e w e summariz e th e slopes . I t clearl ydistinguishe s th e disaggregat e versu s th e aggregate ? slopes .

W e shoul d includ e dat a o nuncertaintie s associate d wit hth e slope? . Thi s i s anothe r commen t tha t Grange r made .

DR . MAHAFFEY : I thin k ther e i s a fundamenta l uncertainty , too , o nth e slopes . I thin k tha t virtuall yal l th e dat a o nslope s wa s 'Obtaine d fro mmal e subjects .

Sinc e th e populatio ntha t yo u are very concerne d abou t i s pregnan t women , i t i s importan t t o not e tha t thi s i s unknow nan d missin gdata .

MR . COHEN : Right . DR . MAHAFFEY : It i s a majo r problem . MR . COHEN : Goo dpoint . Yes . Ther e wa s a commen t t o compar e th e studie s b y Chamberlain , e t a l an dManto nt o se e ho w thei r b<one-lea d resorptio nadjustmen t compares . Alla nha s don e som e wor k recentl y

onthatd , an dw e ca nincorporat e som e o f thos e results . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 B'Ot hpaper s basicall yru nt o simila r con e 1 us i ori s b ydifferen t methods : basicall ytha t a substantiall yfractio n .o f adul t lea d i s du e t o th e releas e o f endogenou s bone ? lead . W e wil l ad d mor e discussio n>o n thos e tw o papers : mayb e anythin g els e tha t anyon e ca nidentify .

Ther e wa s a ques t iio n abiout th e biokineti c rmode l . Doe s th e fac t tha t the ? mode l account s f'o r cumulativ e exposure s mea n t h a t t h e c io

r r e 1 a t i o n show s a 1 i f e t i m e ave r age ? blood-lead ?Th e cumulativ e aspec t refer s t o th e long-ter m storag e fro mprio r exposure . Ne wYor k Universit y successfull yvalidate d th e mode l agains t autops ydata . Age specifi c intake s tha t w e us e are designe d t o allow , o f course , blood-lea d estimate s a t an yage , though .

W e thin k tha t tha t i s on e o f th e mai nadvantages , again , o f th e model : tha t i t ca ncaptur e relativel yshort

ter mchange s i nexposure s compare d t o th e othe r approaches .

Ther e wa s a questio n wher e th e RY Uslop e wa s used . I t wa s use d i na coupl e o f places : on e t o illustrate , for infants , th e relationshi p betwee nblood-lea d an duptake . I t i s als o use d i nth e criteri a documen t disaggregat e model .

W e als o refe r t o i t agai nwhe nw e tr yt o estimat e th e impac t o f dietar ylea d change s o nbaselin e blood-lead . Th e slop e o f th e RY Udat a see mt o suppor t that . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6

Again , Alla n Marcu s ha s continue d hi s reanalysi s po f thos e dat a includin g th e ra t data . I wil l tr yt> o ad d som e i o f t ha t t o t he r e ? p o r t . Ther e i s agreemen t PO nour approac ht o focu s o n absiorbe d lea d dat a t o suppor t ou r absorptio nassumptions . Thes e ar e relativel ygoo d compare d t' O m>os t othe r dat a set s w e hav e t o dea l with .

W e agree d tha t w e shoul d ad d mor e discussio n o n th e importanc e o f th e variou s assumptiion s u p front .

Ther e wa s a commen t o nth e numbe r o f hour s tha t childre n are

estimate d t o spen doutdoors . It ma y b e misleadin ggive nwinte r /summe r differences , fpo r example . It i s tru e tha t i ntryin gt o captur e year- ' r poun d exposure s w e ar e smoothin gou t seasona l variations . It woul d b e possibl e t o distinguis hcooler-mont hexposures .

W e woul dpresen t thos e blood-lea destimate s o na seas'ona l basi s a s pea kexposur e levels , for example . W e don' t anticipat e tha t the y woul db e different , however , from th e uppe r boun destimate s tha t w e generat e now .

Th e endresul t a t si xyear s o f ag e probabl y woul d no t b e muc hdifferent . Th e two-year-ol dblood-lea dcertainl y woul db e differen t becaus e o f th e age-dependent . W e ar e lookin grigh t no w t o se e i f th e availabl e dat a are sufficien t t o d o som e sensitivit y analysis . I f anyon e ha s any.age-specific , seasonal-specifi c

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 data , i twoul d b e reall yusefu l io n outd'O'O rbehavio rpatterns . There , i s arelate d observatio n tha tth e tim e •outdoor s ma ybe ? indicativ e no tonl yo fexposur e perio d alpone , b u tpla yhabits

. I ti s tru e tha tsevera l parameter s i n th e m'0 d p a 1 a. re su rro g a tes to s ummari ::

e m o re

? co mp 1 e xv a r

i a b 1 es . W e sh o u I d re a1 1 yh i g h 1 i g i - i tth a tp > o i n ta n d s '

O m e m P O re re ? ce ? n trefer e n ca s th i a twe h ave . Ag a i n , s m' O >

o t hi ng o

f c hi 1 dh o >

o da bs o r p t i o nr a t e s ma y bp? ? inappropriate . Th e reaso nw e di d tha t i s tha t w e ha d n o dat a fpo

r a lo t o f th e ag e groups . W e though t smoothin g wa s th e mos t reasonabl e alternative .

Th e dat a fo r childre n>o n tim e spen t outdoor s appear s soft . W e referre d 'onlyt o a ninforma l parenta l survey . Tha t wa s a nerro r i nou r citations . Actuall yi t come s from

four differen t behavi>ora l studie s liste d here? . W e trie d t o confir mi t b ysiom e forma l survey . W e shoul d alsi o mot e tha t th e Eas t Helen a Kellog g studie s fpoun

d a numbe r o f kid s wh o spen t mor e tha nth e .averag e hour s outsid e durin g th e summer .

Ther e wa s a nobservatio ntha t th e predicte d blood

lead s ha d a les s disperse d distributio ntha nth e "Observe d blood-lead s i nth e validati>o n exercis e a t Eas t Helena . Again , give nth e availabl e data , w e are predictin g averag e exposures . W e c>ompare d thos e tw o dist r i bu t ion s onl yt o

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 illustrat e th e qualit y>o f th e consistency . I don' t thin k th e rniode l i s eve r gpoin g t o b e able , unles s w e hav e a 3 o t mo r e data , t'.o accoun t fo r al l th e variation s i n exposure s an d the ?

s i o u r c e s t ha t we d o n' t me a s u r e n o w .

A nimportan t ppoin t i s tha t th e mea nblO'Od-lea d predicte d wa s nearl yidentica l t o th e 'Observe d mea ni n Eas t Helena . Ther e wa s a commen t tha t th e GS T measure d i n Eas t Helen a wa s simila r t o tha t foundi nBunke r Hil l Sme?lter . Tha t i s a nic e thin gfor u s t o addt o th e report . I thin kwe hav e th e appropriat e dat a t o deriv e that .

MR . HAINES : I thin ktha t wa s i nth e CD C information .

MR . COHEN : Yes . Ther e wer e tw o comments—again , I thin kGrange r mad e these—tha t ar e related : n o indicatio no f th e expecte d accurac y

o f th e inpu t data ; and , ar e w e over-explainin ggive n th e inheren t inaccuracies ?

I t wa s difficul t for u s t o assig na statistica l uncertaint y

t o th e mode l prediction s give nth e limite ddat a tha t w e ha dt o wor kwith . Th e sensitivit y o f th e prediction s ca nb e judge db y th e lowe r an duppe r bounds . Som e key-mode l parameter s tha t I flashe du p briefl y

befor e wer e adjuste dwithi nth e rang e tha t w e fel t plausibl e t o bette r fi t th e observe dlimits . 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 'Z'3 D i d t h

i e ? va 1 i d a t i o ni n c 1 u d p a RUNC' ? I t hi n k , Mi k e , yo u wer e no t clea r io n that . Actually , RU NC w e though t wa s o u r u .1

1 i n i a t e t e

? s t . I t inc l u d e d al l t h i e ? va r i a b1 e s , i n c 1 u d i ng air , dus t an d soi l relationships , especially , tha t w e hav e t o estimat e whe nw e g o ou t t o di o ou r cas e studies . S o th e answe r is : Yes . Bu t w e probabl yshioul d mak e tha t a littl e mor e clear .

Again , w e shoul d clarif yth e discussio no nou r us e o f mid-poin t estimate s i nrelati'o nt o th e 1 owe r an d uppe r b'oun d estimates . W e fee l tha t th e m i d-p'oi nt i s a mor e plausibl e an d mor e predictiv e statistic .

Ther e wa s th e commen t tha t th e finding s fro m Eas t Helen a are

consisten t wit hothe r simila r i nDalla s andBunke r Hil l wit hth e m'odel prove dwit hmor e discret e exposur e estimates : i nothe r words , lookin ga t block-by-bloc k exposure s a s oppose dt o censu s trac kpatterns , for example .

I hop e w e ca nnot e tha t by referrin gt o som e o f th e result s fro

m Bunke r Hill . I don' t kno w i f tha t i s avai1abl e yet .

W e ha ddiscussio no nho w ai r qualit y

interpolatio n procedure s wil l b e used . I nEas t Helena , w e ha da mor e dens e monitorin gnetwor ktha nw e usuall y have . S o w e wer e abl e t< o compar e interpolate dsmoot hmonitorin gvalue s versu s mode l dat a from

th e IS E dispersio nmodel , whic ho f cours e i s wha t w e are limite dt o whe nw e mode l futur e scenarios . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.3 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 I t turn s ou t tha t th e result s wer e fairl ysimilar . Whe nw e d>o ou r cas e studies , th'ouyh , w e ar e q>oin g t o u;-; e th e IS C dispersio n modeling .

Thi s i s S'omethin g w e talke d abou t earlier . W e wil l ad d mor e d i scuss i on-—hopefull yw e wil l hea r (mor e today--

- o nho wth e approache s tha t w e tal k ab'ou t ma yb e applie d t o •othe r lea d exposur e assessments .

W e ar e hearin g a lo t o f interes t fro mothe r programs , no t onl ywithi n th e Agenc ybu t outside? , o n usin g t he s e tool s f o r s o i 1 - 1 e a d , fo r e xample , a s s e s s me ? n t s . I nEas t Helena , w e looke d a t area one , whic hwa s withi na mile , an d are a two , whic hwa s a littl e farthe r out . Ther e appeare d t o b e some.difference s i n th e slope s tha t wer e derive d fro mth e model .

Th e comment s probabl yrelate d t o unmeasure d variables : demographi c o r nutritiona l factors , fo r example . W e agree d tha t thos e variable s shoul d b e considered .

On e findin g i n Eas t Helen a wa s tha t ther e wa s n o significan t improvemen t i n predictin g blood-lea d afte r includin g dietar yhabit s an d income , fo r example . Tha t wa s attribute d t o th e lo wprevalenc e o f detectabl e lea d pain t there , andth e relativ e homogeneit yi n housin g qualit yan d socia l status .

Tha t i s anothe r reaso n wh yEas t Helen a represente d

a goo dvalidatio n case . I thin k simila r result s wer e foun d

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.3 2

-J&<

.J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 3 1 i n Bunke rH i 11

.

I n othe r areas , thes e fact'Or s ar e ppotentiall yver y powe r determinate s o f blood-lead ; bu t w e are ? no t goin g t o hav e th e dat a tha t i s necessar yt o incorporat e that . Tha t i s •on e o f th e reason s why w e are

usin gth e geometri c standar d d e vi a tion , fo r e xa mp1 e , t o es t i ma t e th e c o mp1et e d i s t r i bu t io n o f b 1 ood- leads .

W e jus t can' t captur e al l th e variabilit y wit hth e modelin gtha t i s availabl e a t thi s time .

Ther e i s a littl e confusion , probably , abou t ou r baselin e blood-lea dprojectio ni nth e aggregat e mpodel . I f extrapolated , tha t leve l woul dsugges t onl y 20,00 0 kid s woul d hav e blood-lead s abov e 1 0 i n199 0 versu s ove r fiv e time s tha t no w jus t livin gi ninne r cit y area s i nth e ATSD RReport . I gues s w e nee dt o emphasiz e or b e clea r tha t th e baselin e blood-lea dproject s represen t rura l non-ai r exposur e wit hminima l pain t lead .

DR . MUSHAK : Th e poin t o f th e commen t I mad e ther e wa s th e fac t tha t par t o f i t give s yo usom e ide a o f ho w muc h o f a populatio no f childre nyo uare goin gt o d o somethin g for . MR . COHEN : Right .

DR . MUSHAK : Wha t siz e o f populatio nyo uar e not . MR . COHEN : Yes . W e probabl y shoul dad dthat . DR . MUSHAK : I f yo uwor kthroug hth e thin ga s I

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.3 3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 _„.._ . . : j. . .i .

Qc< . V

t ? J . '-

• •- • l I V

i < 1 i , yio ufin dtha t one-sevent ho f

al lth echildre n are ? qo in g L - ori-?

ivt : L : •J. &a dJ

. eve lsp r

o babl yabov e1 0

mic r o g r ams . Al l o f thes e low-SE S inne r cit ychildren , stil l i n 1990 , I woL I 1 d i ma g i n e , wo u 1 d h i a v e ? b1 o'O

d•- 1 ea d s n e a r

1 0 o r above, , MR . COHEN : Yes .

DR . MUSHAK : S o th e fac t i s tha t tha t yo ueithe r choos e t o writ e the mof f complet e andsay , "Tha t i s HUD' s problem " or "Tha t i s som e hybri dproble m o f HUD, " or yo utr y t o 1'Oio ka t a separat e scenari o fo r the m an dsa y

tha t eve na smal l amoun t o f air-lea dadjustmen t wil l hel pthem .

MR . COHEN : Yes . Th e othe r thin gtha t probabl y woul dhel pis , whe nw e addth e prevalenc e o f childre nlivin g i nth e vicinit y

o f thes e sources, — DR . MUSHAK : W e talke dlas t nigh t abou t th e fac t tha t man y

point s source s are i nurba narea s whic hmultipl y impac t thes e sam e children .

MR . COHEN : Yes . DR . MUSHAK : Yo uar e onl y goin gt o catc ha par t o f it . MR . COHEN : Right .

OnHispani c children , w e woul dlov e t o hav e tha t data . W e wer e no t abl e t o ge t th e summar y dat a s o far . W e hav e bee ntryin gfor a coupl e o f years .

; EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.3 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 Joe l Schwart z ha s be?e n abl e t o ge t a lo t po f th e t l i i n g s o nt hat . . I d o n ' t k n o wwhy .

DR . MUSHAK : Le t m e interjec t ou r experience . W e trie d t o ge t Hispani c dat a fo r a repor t t o Congress . The ? super-perfectionist s a t Nationa l Cente r fo r Healt hStatistic s wer e unhapp ywit hkno wth e dat a wa s ava i 1 a b1 e? . Plus , I believe , ther e wa s som e unfortunat e earl y politica l capita l tha t wa s mad e o f tha t dat a bas e earlier . S o the yar e ver y ants y abou t th e qualit y o f that . MR . COHEN : Yes . DR . RABINOWITZ : S o becaus e th e qualit yo f th e dat a ma y

no t b e goo denough , i t ma y no t b e availabl e a t all ? DR . MUSHAK : Tha t i s thei r version . I a mgettin g informatio nsecon dhand . W e hav e no t see nth e run .

Tha t ha s bee nou r experience , too , i nthis . MR . COHEN : Ther e wa s th e commen t tha t olde r population s ma y

no t experienc e th e projecte ddecline s tha t w e ar e predictin gbecaus e o f thei r hig hhistorica l exposures .

W e reall y

nee dt o emphasiz e tha t poin t upfront , althoug hth e on e opportunit y w e have , really , t o mak e tha t adjustmen t i s usin gth e bone-lea dresorptio nadjustmen t from Chamberlain ; bu t w e wil l ad dsom e mor e discussio no nthat .

DR . MUSHAK : I am no t sur e Chamberlai ndoe s th e es t eopo r o t i c women, — EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.3 5



### 3 4 1 MR . COHEN : No , he ? doe s not . 2 DR . MUSHAK L 

### —whic hwoul db e a multipl e of , like , 3 2 po r 2- 1 /2 . 4 DR . MAHAFFEY : I thin kyo u reall yhav e t o mak e 5 tha t poin t strongly . I di dn>o t g o bac kt o Chamberlai no f 6 1983 , bu t I reall ydon' t believ e tha t ther e i s tha t muc hdat a 7 o nth e t iop i c . 8 la mcio nce r ne dt ha t wea r eg e1 1 ing th etyp eo f 9 mode lvalidatio ni nher etha t doe s no t

dea lwit hth efac t 1 0tha t ther ei s alo t

o f biological/physiolog ica ldat atha t are 1 1 absolutel ymissing . 1 2DR . MUSHAK : Chamberlain' s stil li nth e1. 3 1 3 factor . Didn' t tha t stil lrelat ebac k t o th eisotopic ? I n 1 4 othe r

words , hal f

wen t t o th ebon ean dthe no f tha t hal f cam e 15 out : 2 5 percent . 16 MR . COHEN : Yes . Tha t wa s th etrace . 1 7 DR . MUSHAK : S o tha t

i s no t

eve ngoo dfo r

us . 1 8 Tha t

i s stil lashort-ter mbon eresorptio nresponse . 1 9 MR

. COHEN : Yes

. 2 0 DR . MARCUS : Ther e wa s som e mor e recen t wor ktha t 

### 21 Chamberlai ndi di nth e 198 5 paper . I t wa s a synthesi s o f 2 2 dat afro m

a variet y

o f differen t sources : a compartmenta l 2 3 kinetic-typ e model . 2 4 I t stil l cam e u pwit ha nestimat e o f 20-som e 2 5 percen t fo

r afte r some 5 0 year s o f exposure , pumpingth e lea d EXECUTIVE COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 15 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 21 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 bes t int o th e bone? .

DR . MUSHAK : Manton' s dat a i s probabl yt , fo r it , woul d yo u say' ?

DR . MARCUS : Manton' s dat a i s extremel ysuggestiv e o f th e importanc e o f thi s fro ma quantitativ e poin t >o f vie?w . Mai"i t >: • r i ha d t o mak e som e assump t i on s abiout t h e contrib u t i o n s f r o mc o n c u r r e ? n t e xp o s u r e s . DR . MUSHAK : A s di d an ymodelin g use d by

Chambe r 1 a i n .

DR . MARCUS : Well , C hamberlai n ha d t o m a k e a differen t se t o f assumptions . I woul d sa ytha t eithe r value ? h a s sor t o f be?e ncas t i n marble ; bu t the yar e bot hreasonabl y i nconcor d tha t a substantia l fraction , certainl yupward s o f 2 0 percen t i nadul t male s wh o hav e ha d substantia l historica l exposur e t o lead , ha s create d a bon e poo l o r bon e reservoi r o f lea d tha t i s gpoin g t o b e comin g bac k out , an d wil l b e detectabl e i n blood-lead .

DR . .RABINOWITZ : Anothe r se t o f dat a tha t coul d bea r >o

n thi s i s fro moccupationa l ly-expose d peopl e wh o hav e muc hhighe r blood-lead s an d muc hhighe r bon e stores , an d watchin gth e veryslo wrat e i ndeclin e o f blood-lea d i n tha t population . I t speak s a littl e bi t abou t ho wavailabl e bione

lea d i s fo r late r blpo^od-lead elevations . I d-on' t kno who w applicabl e i t i s becaus e the yma yb e kin d o f pathologica l

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 3 6 case s i ntha t thei r bone-lead s ar e s o high . I don' t kno wi f yi o u wa nt t o u s e t ha t t o a ddr e s s 11 1 e g e ne r a 1 p o p u 1 a t i o n. B u t i t s a ys s o me t hi ng a bo u t ra t e ? s , a nyho

w . DR . MARCUS : Yes . The yhav e a long-ter mhalf-lif e i nbloo d fro mlea d resorptio ni nth e bon e o f 5-point

something . MR . COHEN : W e als o looke d a t th e Silve r Valley

stud ya littl e imor e superficiall ytha nEas t Helena , bu t th e contro l area s ther e di dno t hav e measure dair-lea dlevel s and

w e wil l not e that .

W e go t comment s onour estimate drelationship s betwee nair , sio

i 1 anddust . I t i s difficul t t o quantif y temppora l change s i nsoi l anddust , especiall y i nsom e sites : for example , highly-contaminate darea s wher e curren t air-lea d effect s are

neglible , i nclose dfacilities ; or clea narea s wher e soi l dus t accumulation s ma y b e non-linear . The nw e use dal l th e availabl e dat a fro m a wid e variet y

o f poin t sourc e area s tha t reporte dquality-assur e pr o t ocols . Base do nth e limite dlongitudina l data , w e hav e som e assuranc e tha t th e relationship s are, i ngenera l plausible . Th e uncertainties , however , regardin gth e tempora l pattern s o f soi l an ddus t change s are th e reason s tha t w e decide dt o us e tw o differen t assumptions : one , wher e w e kee p

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 24 2 5 soil-lea d constan tove rtime ; an d th e othe rwher e w e var y soil—lea d wit h air—lead

.

Whe n w e tal k

ab>ou tth e cas e stud yresults , yo u fe rer r thos e tw> o assump ti o ns.

T h e non-1inea rrelationship s tha tw e 1 coke d a tfo r t h e dat a set s tha tw e examine d wer e no tan ybee tte rtha n the ? 1 i i ' "i ea rmo del s tha twer e used .

Ye ? s , thi e s o i 1 a n d dus te q u a ti o n s d o i n c 1 u d e historica l deposit s o flea d fro m pri'o rdeposition . "Ar e th e equation s i n Appendi xB intende d t o b e use d recursively? " T h e answe ri s no , simply .

Equatio n 3. 3 f'o rdust-lea d i s intende d t o b e use d i fonl yair-lea d i s available ; an d 3. 2 shoul d b e use d fo r dus ti fbot h air-lea d an d soil-lea d ar e available ; an d w e wil l ad d discussio n o n that .

Ther e wa s a questio n abou tou rdiscussio n i n 7.7 : whethe ro rno ttha timplie s tha tth e air-qualit ystandar d shoul d b e establishe d f>o rcertai n incorporate d soil - an d dust-lea d level s o rtha tsoi l shoul d b e reduce d t o a particula rlevel .

Tha ti s a n interestin g polic yissu e tha tw e migh t wan tt o tal k

abou tlater ; but , analytically , ou rinten twa s t o accoun tfo ral l pathways , includin g elevate d soi l an d dust , tha talread yexis taroun d poin tsources . EXECUTIV E COUR TREPORTER S 

### (301 ) 565-006 4

### J

.J1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 The ; relationship s wer e derive d fro marea s

e xc 1 u di ng t h

i o s e ' c 1 o s e df a c i 1 i t i e s t ha t we t a 1 k e da bo u t : no

I- I e g 1 i g i b1 e a i r - 1 •:- ? ad , bu t hi g h1 y- c o nt a mi na t e ds o i 1 a nddu s t . Similarly , th e air/blood-1ea dslope s tha t w e ha d fr'O mchildre nar e derive dfro moperatin g poin t sources .

Ther e wa s a qu e s t i o ni n a :i

. r -lea dmo ni t o r i ng :

wh i e 1 1 " i e r o r no t we p 1 a no nr e ? a r r a ng i ng '. j u r mo ni t o r i ng ne t wo r k

a wa yfro mmo bil e source s an df o c u s > o ns t a t i o

nary s o u r c e s . Th e answe r t o tha t is : Yes .

Tha t i s somethin g tha t w e wil l discus s whe nw e actuall ypropos e th e standard ; bu t clearl ythe?r e i s a nee? d t o d' O that . Ther e wa s a discussio no nth e heigh t o f monitor s a s i t relate s t o th e breathin g heigh t o f children . I t i s importan t tha t w e shoul d not e thi s i nth e report : tha t an yo f th e dat a are

from roof-top , real-worl d monitors . I t i s no t availabl e t o ge t personalize d monitorin g fo r children .

W e ca naddfurthe r reference s fro mth e criteri a documen t o nth e vertica l gradients , bu t mos t o f tha t dat a i s from mobile-sourc e situations .

Tha t i s abou t i t for ou r summar yo nth e comments . Th e nex t ste pfor u s i s t o finaliz e th e exposur e repor t b y incorporatin gth e comments .

Tha t will , i nturn , becom e a sourc e for th e staf f pape r case-stud y analyse s tha t w e wil l ge t int o i nearl y

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.4 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1939 ; an d alsi o wil l become ? a referenc e fo r th e regulator y impac t analysis , a s wel l a s othe r regulatior yanalyse s bot h inside ? an d outsid e th e Environmenta l Protectio n Agency .

Hopefully , w e wil l hav e time ? t o discus s thos e othe r analyse s a t the ? en d o f th e day .

Than k yo u fo r bearin g wit hu s here . CHAIRMA NLARSON : Than k you , Jeff . W e hav e no t ha d a lo t o f bac k an d fort h discussion . S o w e see mt o b e breezin g righ t alon g here .

Perhap s w e ca ntak e th e tim e a t thi s poin t t o as k fo r genera l discussion .

MR . FLAAK : We are runnin ga littl e ahea do f schedule . CHAIRMAN LARSON : Let' s hav e th e publi c comment s now . Gale , are

yo uprepared ? MR . HOFFNAGLE : I t i s a littl e early , bu t w e ca n tal k abou t ou r comments .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Al l right . Woul dyou , please ? E'yislic . Q28.-DS2Hl.Sl Q&1.-2

hJ2.£.£0£3l£.i . TR C Environmental . £ : 20.§ul_.tants

MR . HOFFNAGLE : I a m Gal e Hoffnagl e from TR C Environmenta l Consultants . I represen t th e Lea dIndustrie s Association .

W e hav e prepare da se t o f comment s abou t th e exp'osur e assessmen t methodology . W e hav e bee nworkin gwit h

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.4 1

> 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 4 0 Jef f Ciohen an d Joh nHaine s sinc e the ? las t CASA C meeting .

W e reviewe d th e staf f pape r an d provide d wha t dat a w e c o u 1 d , a n c

i a n a 1 ys i s tha t w e c o u I d t o b e h e 1 p f u 1 t o t I- i eproce?ss . W e hav e take na lco k a t thi s document . I a msorr y I di d no t us e th e invit.atio n t o ge t comment s i n bySeptembe r 9 , bu t w e ar e a littl e behin d th e eigh t bal l here .

I nr e ? c o gni t i o no f y o u r de

? s i r e t o ha ve

? t he ? p u bli e comment s b e differen t tha nwha t i s i nth e writte ntext , I thin kthere ? are

reall y

onl y tw o majo r difference s w e have ? wit hth e exposur e assessmen t methodolog y a t thi s point . I woul dlik e t o highligh t those .

W e agre e generall y wit hth e assessmen t methodology . W e fee l tha t i t goe s a lon gwa y towar d overcomin gsom e o f th e objection s tha t w e ha dbefore , and tha t i t include s a lo t bette r se t o f dat a andmor e realisti c conclusion s directe da t source s rathe r tha na lo t mor e generalize dproblem .

W e als o agre e wit hJeff' s statement , andth e conclusio nher e basically , tha t th e uptak e biokineti c mode l i s th e righ t wa y a t thi s poin t t o g o afte r th e problem : tha t i t offer s som e rea l advantage s i nterm s o f dividin gou t amon g th e sourc e categorie s wher e th e problem s lies ; tha t i s i t no t availabl e i nth e aggregat e or th e disaggregat e model .

Ou r concer nha s bee nprimaril y i ntw o areas : thos e

" > EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.4 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 4 1

are ? i n th e ac t u a 1 r e 1 a t i > o n s i- 1 i p be t we

? e na i r - 1 e a d , an d soil

an d dust-lea d tha t ha s bee ngenerate d here .

I a mconcerne? d abou t i t fro mth e poin t >o f vie w>o

f th e selectio n afterwards , afte r th e fact , o f th e dat a tha t i s i nTabl e A-3 , th e Appendi xtabl e whic hlist s al l kind s o f set s o f data , rathe r tha ngoin g ahea d an d usin g th e Eas t H"3 1 e n a r es u Its .

I thin k yo u develope d a relationshi p a t Eas t Helen a tha t i s correc t an d i t i s accurate . I t use s a large r dat a se t t o develo p tha t relationship .

S o w e woul d propos e tha t yo u d o that . I hav e prepare d t o plot s her e that , I think , hel p u s focus—yo u hav e copie s o f them—o n th e issue . I hav e take nth e Tabl e A- 3 data , whic hrepresen t al l th e set s o f dat a tha t coul d b e looke d at , an d looke d a t individua l point s o nth e Tabl e A- 3 data .

I hav e take nou t o f tha t th e one s tha t wer e agree d t o i nth e paper , andw e ha dagree dtha t thos e shoul db e take n out ; bu t I hav e als o take nou t th e one s tha t ar e no t point sourc e related . S o al l w e hav e lef t i s th e point-source relate dones .

I too kou t th e one s from Bartlett , th e fiv e smal l copper-smelte r typ e facilities . Al l o f thos e air-lea d concentration s ar e low s o I don' t thin kthe y ad dmuc ht o th e slope . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 4 2

B u t i n thei r pa p e r, t he ycou1 d no t f ind an y ve l a t i ponshi p betwee nth e air

- an d soil—lead s a t a l 1 , I f the y canno t find i t i nth e pape r itself , i t i s har d t o us e i t i n a n extrapolatio n lik e this .

Her e i s ou r air-lead/soi1-1ea d versu s air

1 '••?ad/'so

i 1 —1 eac j ccncentrat i o n basicall yi n thousand s '0 f microgram s pe r gra mpp mversu s ambien t ai r concentrations .

W e hav e a range ? fro m 2 t o 4 . I don' t thin k tha t

w e shoul d concer n'ourselve s wit hth e concentration s tha t ar e greate r tha n4 , let' s say . S o I remove dth e one s tha t ar e high ; and , also , th e S'oil-leadconcentration s tha t ar e rea l hi gh. I thin kthes e represen t differen t kind s o f

c i r c ums t an e es .

Thes e are

th e differen t dat a set s f>o r poin t sources . Wha t i s interestin gabou t the m i s th e Toront o dat a andth e Brussel s data . Thi s i s anOmah a dat a point , thi s i s anothe r Toront o dat a point , bu t al l th e one s tha t are upher e onto prepresen t urba npoint-sourc e situations : Toront o and Brussels . Th e one s tha t are o nth e botto m

represen t rurals , i nessence . Thi s lin e i s th e lin e o f blood-1ead/soi1-lea do f 1 5 time s 57 9 air-lea dtha t wa s use di nTabl e 4- 1 andused , finally , i nth e analysis ; an dthi s lin e i s th e lin e from Eas t Helena . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.44

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 I f I understan d i t correctly , Jeff , th e lin e fro m Eas t Helen a include s a lo t more s dat a point s tha n th e dat a point s tha t wer e o n Tabl e A-3 . There ? are som e Eas t Helen a c j a t a p o i n t s he r e— t k i i s o ne , t hi s o n e , thi s o n e , 11 1 i s o n e , a n d th i s p.one?—

b u t th o s e a.re differen t dat a p o i nt s t h a n th e on e yo u use d t o d e v e 1 o pthi s lin e o r th i s s 1 "0 p e .

MR . COHEN : Tha t i s right . Th e summar ydat a tha t w e use d fro mth e literature? , though , i s home-specific . So , i nfact , the y d o includ e mor e home s tha ni s reflected . Th e individua l dat a point s fro mth e differen t studie s represen t a larg e numbe r o f homes .

MR . HOFFNAGLE : A larg e numbe r o f averag e sets ; o f homes , right ?

MR . COHEN : Yes . MR . HOFFNAGLE : M y poin t i s tha t th e slop e o f thi s lin e fro

m Eas t Helen a i s derive ddifferentl y tha njus t the?s e fiv e p'oints . S o i f yo utrie dt o dra w a lin e throug hth e Eas t Helen a point s uphere , yo uwoul dno t ge t thi s one .

W e hav e a tendenc y t o believ e tha t mos t o f th e situation s tha t w e ough t t o b e talkin gabout , rural-are a situation s wher e w e don' t hav e automotive-lea dinpu t or paint-lea dinpu t ands o forth , ough t t o conside r thi s Eas t Helen a line : tha t i t i s bette r for them .

I als o dotte di nth e rang e o f value s tha t i s use d on o Tabl e A- 4 by plottin gthe m

in . Wha t I don' t know , and ) EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 

### wha t I woul d like ? t o ask , is : H'o wwe?r e the ? rang e o f value s se t fo r soi l an

d f>o r househol d dust ? O n Tabl e 4- 1 yo u hav e a range , bu t I don' t unde r s t and f r omt h e d'0 c umen t ho wt h e rang e wa s dev e 1 ope d . MR . COHEN : In Tabl e A-4 . MR . HOFFNAGLE : Tabl e 4- 1 ha s a range . Appendi xA give s u s a me?a

n valu e and a sliope , bu t I don' t kno who wth e rang e wa s developed .

Tabl e A- 4 ha s a rang e o f soi l dus t an dhousehol d dust . MR . COHEN : Not Tabl e 4 .

MR . HOFFNAGLE : 4-1 . CPause 3 MR . COHEN : Lin e 12 ? MR . HOFFNAGLE : Yes . Line s 1 2 an d13 . I don' t kno w ho w thos e range s wer e developed . I nth e staf f paper , we kne w becaus e i t came fro m a tabl e inth e Appendix , ho w th e range s wer e developed . DR . MARCUS : I wil l hav e t o go bac kan dverif y this , but I thinkthes e range s represen t th e 9 5 percen t confidenc e interval s tha t wer e derive dfro m that . MR . HOFFNAGLE : Okay . That' s fine . I norde r t o reproduc e it fo r thi s slope , whic hyo u hav e no t done , I woul dlik e t o reproduc e th e rang e fo r th e Eas t Helen a slope . I di dno t hav e th e methodology , but it i s ) 

### EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.4 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 4 5 9 5 percen t confidenc e s o I wil l have ? t o have ? th e data , too .

I t is ' importan t becaus e th e range ? o f value s tha t resul t o n Tabl e A-4-- 1 ar e a substantiall ylarge r tota l range , althoug hsomewha t shifte d down , fro mthos e i nth e OAQP S staf f p a p e ? r f r o mt wo ye ? a r s a g o . T he r a n g e ? s a r e

? 1 a r g e

? r . Fio r instance, , at 1. 5 microgram s pe r cubi c meter , the ? highes t value ? tha t appear s o n th e tabl e i s substantiall y large r tha nth e highes t valu e tha t appeare d i n th e origina l OAQP S staf f paper .

S o i f on e i s t o loo k a t the^to p o f th e rang e an d mad e one' s decision s o nth e to p o f th e range , i t give s yo u a lo t highe r numbe r .tha n i f yo u ar e jus t I'O'okin g a t th e mean . I woul d suggest—an d I thin k th e suggestio nwa s mad e before — tha t yo u pu t th e mea nvalu e i nthi s tabl e s o peopl e ca n loo k a t it , an d the nth e range s an d standar d deviatiions .

MR . COHEN : Yes , w e shoul d mak e tha t a littl e mor e c 1 ear . Again , th e equation s i nA- 4 ar e th e one s tha t w e inten d t o us e wit hth e cas e study .

MR . HOFFNAGLE : Fro mth e Eas t Helen a data ? MR . COHEN : W e are proposin g t o us e wha t w e cal l th e SPTA , jus t th e point-sourc e dat a an d include , a s yo u did , al l th e urban-specifi c data .

MR . HOFFNAGLE : I gues s m ypoin t wil l b e com e mor e clea r whe nyo u loo k a t th e secon d figure , whic hi s th e

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.4 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 21 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 data— wh i ch yo u ' s f:. •e n ta 1 o t>

o ftim e deve l o p i n g a n d generat i n g —:1 s abette rdat ase tt o use .

Thi s i s househol d dus tversu s air-lead

. Her e i s t h e 'On e yo u picked

. Here ? i s E a s tH e 1 e ? n ao n e wh i ch , again , wa s derive d from - adifferen t <:.:.& T. O f d a t a , ' 0 r i n differen t method'o l ogy , tha nth e point s tha t are o nthi s curv e o n thi s 1ine .

A s yo u ca n see , i t goe s substantiall yove r a t leas t th e dat a set s tha t I picke d from.Tab1 e Afo r yo u t o loo k at ; an d th e mea nan d rang e i s substantiall yhighe r tha n th e bul k o f value s tha t I hav e considere d fo r usin g th e data .

Thi s dat a poin t fro mE l Paso , whic hi s hardl yth e mos t accurat e dat a se t tha t w e kno wabou t and , I think , i s doubtful , I thin k weight s thi s distributio ni f tha t i s wha t ha s happened ; an d I a mno t sur e tha t tha t i s wha t happe?ne?d .

MR . COHEN : W e trie dt o thro wou t thi s outline . W e trie d t o discus s i t i nth e paper , I though t w e did . We? wil l g o bac kan dtak e a loo ka t that .

MR . HOFFNAGLE : Okay . Pleas e tak e a loo ka t this . I think , lookin ga t i t thi s way , I a m concerne d abou t it . Wha t concern s me , o f course , i s tha t thes e househol ddust-lea dnumber s d o driv e th e fina l answer . In othe r words , th e househol ddust , becaus e th e childre nare insid e mor e tha nthe y are outside , doe s ten dt o driv e tha t

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 13 1 4 15 16 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 21 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 • A 7 fina l answe rquit e = : i!- , c : t-arHall v itiau y MR . HAINES : I f I follo wyou r argument , ar e w e focusin g i n o na rura l situation ? Kee p i n mind , w e have ? t o b e concerne d no t 'Onlywit hprimar ysmelter s locate d i n rura l setting s suc ha s i nEas t Helena , bu t w e als o hav e t o worry abou t stationar ysources , secondar ysmelter s oriente d i n u r ba n ar

eas . I a mno t quit e sur e i nm yow nmin d tha t w e ca n exclud e p'O

i nt-sourc e urba ndat a fro mth e analysi s a s yo u are suggestin g her e an d focu s onl y o nEas t Helen a becaus e I a m no t sur e tha t Eas t Helen a i s representativ e o f thes e othe r sett i ngs . MR . HOFFNAGLE: . I agre e wit hthat ; bu t i f yo u are goin g t o d o a separat e mode l for th e urba narea , the nyo u nee d t o includ e th e othe r source s o f lea di ntha t urba narea. Yo u nee d t o be.muc hmor e specifi c abou t it .

MR . HAINES : Ar e yo usuggesting , then , Gale , tha t for a rura1-oriente dsource , w e us e Eas t Helen a for cas e studies , the nus e th e tota l dat a se t o r segregat e ou t th e rura l andonl y

us e urba npoint-sourc e dat a or mor e urba n locations ? MR . HOFFNAGLE : I a m sayin gtha t the y are very differen t dat a set s andi t migh t b e mor e usefu l t o loo ka t a n urba ndat a se t tha t wa s mor e convincing .

I lik e t o loo ka t a cas e stud y lik e yo uhav e don e 

# Y EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.4 9

*f c tr*;.--

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# X 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 • ;i

- b a t Eas t Helen a an d g o throug hi t an d understan d i t completely . Rathe r tha nusin g th e STR Adat a set , i f yo u tioo k , f o r instance , th e T or ont o dat a set , wh i c hI th. i ni : :i . s prett ygood , an d looke d a t Toronti o spe c i f i c a l 1 y—yo u developec i anurba nmode l fo r Toriont o a s compare d t> o th e rura l mode l fo r Eas t Helena— I thin k tha t woul d giv e u s mor e i nf o r m

a t i o ntha n th e S T P Adat a s e ? t . MR . COHEN : Actually , Gale , on e thin g tha t probabl ywa s no t clea r whe n w e di d deriv e the ? ai r /so i 1 /dus t relationship s i n Appendi xC , w e exclude d thos e dat a tha t wer e no t collecte d aroun d p>oint source s i nurba narea.

I thin k th e dat a set s tha t w e 1'ooked a t wer e prett ysimila r t o th e one s w e hav e here . Yo u exclude d th e Bartesville , Oklahoma : tha t suit e o f data .

" MR . HOFFNAGLE : Right , bu t al l o f tha t dat a i s righ t dow ni nhere , alon gthi s line .

MR . COHEN : Right . MR . HOFFNAGLE : I thin k i t wa s clea r i nth e documen t tha t yo uthre w ou t fiv e set s o f data . I wen t bac k throug hm

y Tabl e A- 3 andpu t a n"X " nex t t o th e one s tha t yo u sai dyo uthre w

out . Di dyo ueliminat e othe r dat a set s from tha t tabl e befor e yo udi dth e progressions ?

MR . COHEN : Yes . MR . HOFFNAGLE : W e nee dt o kno wthat . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.5 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 MR . COHEN : Thos e dat a wer e th e one s tha t wer e jus t urba ndata . I though t w e talke d abou t al l o f the m i n ou r discussio n afte r Tabl e A-3 , bu t I don' t thin k w e go t al l

o f them , lik e th e Janso n table , fo r example , whic hwa s c o 1 1'??

c t e d i nC hi c a g o . MR . HOFFNAGLE : Okay . MR . COHEN : S o al l thes e wer e th e p'Oi nl-sou r ce spacifi c data . W e di d grou p primar ylea d smelter s wit h secondar ylea d smelter s an dbatter y plants . MR . HOFFNAGLE : Okay . DR . RABINOWITZ : Coul dI as ka question ? MR . COHEN : Sure . DR . RABINOWITZ : I a m no t eve nsur e t o as kthi s of , bu t i ntryin gt o ge t thi s relationshi pbetwee nsoil -lea d

an dair -lead , I hav e a bi t o f troubl e understandin gi t becaus e I imagin e air-lea dgoe s u pan ddown , mayb e hourl y o r dail y 'o r seasonally , wher e soil-leads , I imagine , jus t accumulat e wit htim e fro m fall-ou t an dsuch . S o I a m

kin do f doubtfu l o f th e exercis e o f relatin gth e tw o jus t becaus e o f th e mechanism , I imagine .

I a m wondering : Ha s anyon e trie drelatin gsoil lea dan dair-lea dwher e yo uloo ka t th e integrat e air-lea di n som e way ? Say , "Okay . W e hav e ha dthi s air-lea dfo r te n decades . W e hav e ha dthi s air-lea dfo r tw o years. "

Mayb e thi s migh t explai nwh y thing s ar e no t al l o n 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.5 1



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w eal lunder?;! ; an d— an dIl istc-? di nm y comment s there—th ecomplexitie s tha t av einvolved . I nfact , Ia mver yconcerne dabou t thi s comp le?x ity , especiall yth e tempo r a 1 c hanges . W ek no w int ! i et

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• s it i>o n occur s ove r

alon g perio do f tim ei nthe ? soil : i t build s up . W hat , exa c 1 1 y , air et hose ? Wha t i s d'on eher ei s t o tr yt o giv eu s aquic k metho do 1 o g y , asimplif ie ? dmet h io do Io g yw it

ho ut th et ime ? dependenc yt o mak earelationship . I t i s ver yempirical . 

### Tha t i s wha t ha s happened . W e hav e don e th e bes t w e can . I thin k ther e ar e lot s o f complexitie s t o it . Ther e are lot s o f reason s wh yw e mayb e creatin g a problem , wh yw e mayb e i nappr'Opr i ate l yeffectiv e a t on e locatio n o r anothe r becaus e o f th e empiricis mtha t w e ar e developin g here . I thin k generall yw e woul d lik e t o hav e mor e data . I believ e mor e dat a i s coming .

W e are stil l tryin g t o obtai n th e dat a fromFor t Pear yi n Australi a wher e the yhav e don e a larg e studyove r a EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-00641 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 lon g perio d o f time ? an d w e ma yb e abl e t o ge t som e mor e i nf o r ii

i at: . o n. Bu t t o sa ythi s i s a ninstantaneou s relationshi p i s wrong . I t i s a l>o t mor e complex . DR . MARCUS : I woul d lik e t o ad d a fe wcomment s o n thi s re l a t i'onship .

I t i s complex . Som e o f th e informatio n w e woul d hav e like d t o hav e provide d wa s lef t out , otherwis e w e woul d hav e ha d a

documen t fou r time s longe r tha ni t i s now . Ther e wa s som e discussio nthere , a searc hfo r an underlyin gtheory , i nwhic hw e pointe dou t tha t th e relationshi pbetwee nair-lea dconcentration s andsurface-soi l anddus t concentration s depend s als o onth e amoun t o f non leade dparticulat e inth e air ; andeve ni f yo uha dexactl y th e sam e c onc ent r at i ono f leade dpart i cu 1 a t e s inth e ai r i n on e location , bu t th e amoun t o f non-leade dparticulate s tha t wa s fallin gou t wa s large r i non e locatio ntha nanothe r one , yo uwoul dhav e a lowe r surface-soi l concentration .

I don' t sugges t addin gunleade ddir t t o th e ai r s o a s t o dilut e th e soil-lea dconcentration ; bu t tha t i s on e o f th e concerns .

S o a completel y

genera l universa l relationshi pi s "Obviousl y

no t on e w e ar e lookin gfor . Fo r technica l reasons , th e Eas t Helen a slop e ma y b e eventuall y

les s relevan t becaus e o f wha t coul db e calle da EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 m e a su re

? me ? rt te rrc vo rer ro rs- i n-va ri a b 1 e s proble m i n fittin g regressio n (iiode-ls : tha tis , th e air-lea d measuremen tfo reac h h'ouseho i c

j o rfo reac h bloc k tha twa s ti ec i t o a soil

—or dus t— lea d measuremen ti n Eas tHelen aa taparticula rlocation

.

Ev e n thoug h the ; ne two rk o fmon i t o rs i n Eas tHelen a wa s r n io re d e n s e th a n i r> any o the r1 o c a ti > o n— wh i i ch i s o n e C J f the ? reason s w e selecte d thi s fo ra validatio n study—th e air - lea d measu re meri ts coul d hardl yb e sai d t> o b e s> o dens e a s t o provid e avery

complet e imputatio n po fa n ai r— lea d fo reac h bloc k i n Eas tHelena . Ther e jus twer e no ttha tman y rnonitors. I n fittin g thos e relationships , I hav e a concer n tha tth e air-lea d variable , th e inpu to rpredicto ro r regresso rvariabl e i n thos e relationships , ha d a considerabl e amo u n to funcer t a i r i t yi n it .

I ti s know n tha tth e technica l effec to fa n uncertaint yan d imputatio n i s t o attenuat e o rflatte n th e regressio n slopes .

Ther e ar e abou ta thousan d article s o n thi s regressio n attenuatio n effect . I tha s also , I believe , bee n discusse d b yBrumkreat h an d hi s author s i n th e America n JJ2J=!£0.§ I 2l

Epidemiolog yi n 19S7 . W e believe , fo rth e Eas tHelen a dat a set , i ti s probabl ya not-trivia l facto ri n reducin g th e estimate d s i ope .

> 

### EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 dat a p'Oi nt s ar e including , o f course , a rang e o f lo:: r I t i s th e usua l concer n abou t havin g on e o r tw o air-lea d

n i o n i t C

" r s repres s n t i n g a re g i i o n o r met r i

o p o 1 i t a n a r e a „ Wha t yo u hav e o n th e othe r sid e o f tha t i s a n aggregat e measur e o f soi l o r dus t congregation , whic hi s a n average . I n term s >o f th e amoun t o f p r opo r t i ona t e amoun t o f uncertaint yi n thos e numbers , takin g i nt o accoun t th e fac t tha t ther e ar e a lo t o f reason s wh ythe?r e shoul d b e difference s i n thos e ratio s fro mon e locatio n t o anothe r we ? believ e tha t thos e probabl yprovide ? a mor e vali d relationshi p wit hthe e uncertaintie s ther e primaril yrepresentin g difference s fro mon e urba n or rura l locatio n t o anothe r urba n

•o r rura l 1 IOCation .

Th e analyse s reall yar e doin g somewha t differen t things . Th e SPT Aanalysis , w e believe , i s mor e generalizabl e t o mor e differen t kind s o f conditions .

MR . HOFFNAGLE : I hav e tw o comments . I disagre e wit htha t becaus e I thin k Eas t Helen a i s th e bes t dat a se t t o us e an d i t work s bette r tha n anythin g else . Th e resul t i s tha t you r slope , wih t 5 0 part s pe r millio na s th e constan d an d 57 9 multiplie d b yth e ambien t ai r quality , mean s tha t a t 1. 5 microgram s pe r cubi c mete r yo u ar e sayin g tha t almos t all , 5 0 part s pe r milli'On , o f th e soil

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 lea dc i

o ne e nt r a t i o ni s de p er.den t u p o ni mm e c i i a t e c

i e p o s i t:! . o n. Fro m tha t poin t o f view , th e sl'Op e tha t yo u hav e chose n say s tha t th e soil—le ? a d concentratio ni s dete r m i ne d directl ybyth e air-lea d concentratio n wit honl y5 0 part s peermillio n bein g soi l tha t wa s the?re? .

T o me , tha t i s th e fa r mos t conservativ e wa ytha t yo u coul d g o i n tha t calculation . I gues s i t coul d b e 1,00 0 part s pe r millio n microgram s pe r cubi c meter , bu t wit ha constan t o f onl y5 0 pp mtha t say s mos t g n o unc i i s 5 0 pp man d

e ve r yt hi n g els e c o m e s f r > o mth e air , i s d e p o s i t e ? d f r o r

na mbi e nt air . Th e secon d par t o f i t i s tha t a s w e mov e towar d control s o f smelter s an d al l sort s o f lea dpoin t source s w e ar e changin g th e particl e siz e distributio no f thos e emission s radically .

An yrelationshi p w e develo p now , I think , change s th e particl e siz e distributio nfor a numbe r o f reasons : becaus e th e depositio nfootprin t changes , wher e i t i s deposite dchanges , a s wel l a s th e particl e siz e distribution s tha t ar e important .

DR . MARCUS : Th e location s tha t wer e i nth e STP A wer e location s tha t ha dha dfairl y lon ghistorie s o f depositio na t concentrations— I gues s yo uwoul dhav e t o sa y historica l integrate dconcentrations—tha t wer e no t order s o f magnitud e differen t ove r th e perio do f tim e tha t wa s fel t t o 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 b e relevan tt o th e ?.oi l ari d lea d de r

woul d happe n : i fthe' : c ? wer e a n abrup tcha r , L 1 1 o n , r ; qC J ue. - s t : l o ns a bo ut wha t

• ; na i r

a n dd u s t c on c en t r a t i o nwo u1 c i b e a c hi eve d. W e hav e al l bee nl o pokin g fo r dat a tha t migh t giv e

u s a ninsigh t int o this . Ther e iTia yb e analyse s forthcomin g f r i o r nt he l

< e 13 . o g g , I c

i a h i o a r e a i n wh:i

. c ha sm e 1 1 •:

? r t her e ha s close ddownt o stud yth e change s i n thes e concentration s ove r time ? a s a resul t o f a nabrup t chang e i na nair-lea d

c onc e ? nt r a t i on.

I a m no t aware- ? o f othe r dat a set s tha t ar e a s usefu l i nanswerin gtha t questio nabou t th e effect s o f thes e changes . Mayb e yo ucouI danswe r that .

C HAI RM A

N L A R S 0 N : W

e w i 1 1 m o v e ? ahead . Th e n perhaps , afte r th e break , w e ca nhav e a mor e wide-rangin g d i scussion . MR . HOFFNAGLE : Th e othe r poin t i s tha t w e fai l t o se e why

yo udon' t us e th e Clausen , e t a l numbe r for dietar y intak e update : dirt , congestio nandth e like . I t i s 5 6 milligram s pe r day .

Th e secon ddocumen t tha t yo uhav e ther e i s us e o f th e uptak e by

th e kineti c mode l a t four differen t smelte r site s wher e w e hav e som e data . I t i s th e boun ddocument .

Tha t documen t use dth e availabl e dat a wit hth e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 updat e b i ok i ne t i c mode? ! t o tr yt o develo p t o se e wha t the ? relationshi p wa s aroun d smelter s •'o r fou r smelter s an d w e di d Toront o twice , be? f ore anc i afte r th e qu o te/unquot e >:: • lea n u p , The e mios t usefu l tiling w e go t ou t o f tha t i s tha t b e back—calculate d a numbe r tha t i s very clos e t o Clausen . Whe t iter o r niot yo u believ e i n ba c k~ca l cu l a t i on , i t seem s tha t 5 5 , G O milligram s pe r da yrepresent s siomethin g i n th e rea l worl d aroun d thes e smelter s a s muc ha s i t di d i n Clausen' s study , whic hha s beeen discusse d i n othe r ways .

I don' t thin k usin g Binder , e t a l >o r subtractin g Clause nfro mEsinder , e t a l i s th e righ t wa yt o go . W e woul d urg e tha t yo u g o ahea d an d us e th e Clause n a s th e ingestio n rat e supporte d b you r stud yhere .

Fo r bot hth e leaded-soi l issu e an d fo r this , th e Lea d an d Soil s Conferenc e tha t wa s hc-?l d bac k i n May , w e understand , i s t o b e publishe d i n December . S o w e wil l hav e tha t dat a availabl e i n th e journal s a t tha t time .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Than kyou , Gale . Any questions ? MR . COHEN : Yes . I jus t wan t t o le t Gal e kno w tha t w e mad e siom e change s t o th e uptak e estimate s sinc e h e di dtha t earlie r analysi s a yea r or S"0 ago .

MR . HOFFNAGLE : Yes . Change s tha t are i nyou r documen t here ?

MR . COHEN : Yes .

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 MR . HOFFNAGLE : Di d I understan d tha t yo u too!: : the ? 2 Eiinder , et a l arid subtracte d Clausen , e t a. l fro mi t t o coni e 3 u p wit hso.Tie?thin g lik e 10 0 milligram s pe r da yan d a range ? 4 MR . C O KEN . Right, . I a m talkin g abou t othe r 5 parameters , though , a s wel l tha t yo u migh t wan t t o mak e thos e 6 adjustment s t o base d o n thi s repor t an d se e i f i t stil l 7 compare s wev l 1 . 8 Th e othe r thin g i s tha t yo u don' t hav e th e 9 bi io

k i ne?ti c mode ? 1 i t s e 1 f , o t he r than , I guess , t he ? 1 0 relationshi p betwee n dail ylea d uptake , assumin g constan t 11 uptake , an d correlate d wit hblood-lead . 1 2 I thin k yo u migh t ge t a differen t resul t i f yo u 1 3 plu g i n differen t dail yintake s a s th e ki d age s an d allo wthe ? 1 4 dynamic s o f lea d movemen t throug hth e bod yb e accounte d fo r 1 5 a s th e mode? l does . 1 6 Yo u ma yge t a differen t result . 1 7 W e di d loo k a t alternativ e soi l ingestio n rates , 1 8 includin g goin g dow n t o tha t range , i n Eas t Helena . W e foun d 1 9 tha t th e number s tha t w e hav e actuall yarrive d a t her e 2 0 predic t better . 21 W e under-predicte d blood-lea d i n Eas t Helen a usin g 2 2 that . 2 3 MR . HOFFNAGLE : Th e uptak e biokineti c mode l ha s a 2 4 lo t o f variable s i nit . Whic hon e yo u pla y wit ht o hav e i t 2 5 matc hth e blood-lea d i s a Hobson' s Choic e mos t o f th e time . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 Wha t tha t c o me ? s f r o rr

, i s t he c

i r :i . v: ! r i g f o rce ir . , mC'de l , chough . Tha t i s the e one ? tha t drive s th e tota l u p number .

' I woul d jus t lik e t o add , I wen t bac k thr .•vjh i n th e result s i s a tabl e tha t show s yo u have : usin g th e Eas t Helen a air-lea d number ; an d th e 5 Gmilligram s pe r da yinge?st:i . o nnumber .

Thes e ar e th e number s tha t tha t updat e come s to , an d the yare verydifferent . Thes e are clos e t o th e mea n values: . The yar e muc hsmaller .

I didn' t kno wth e methodolog yt o geet th e range s tha t w e talke dabout mbefore , andw e ca nd o that . Bu t w e woul dop t tha t tha t i s a bette r wa yt o approac hthe ? s i tuation . I als o wante dt o say , oningestio n rates , tha t th e Offic e o f Toxi c Substance s i s lookin ga t ingestio nrate s as well . I woul djus t mak e sur e tha t yo uare awar e o f that . I sen t the m

a cop y

o f ou r repor t oningestio nrates . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Okay , Gale . Than kyo ufor that . D o yo uhav e any

furthe r questions ? DR . RABINOWITZ : Mayb e I shoul dsa y thi s no w

i n cas e I forge t i t later .

Abou t usin gsmeltere ddat a t o establis hth e regressio nlin e betwee nair-lea dandsoil-lead , I jus t wan t t o ge t a sens e from people . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 I s ther e a proble musin g tha t typ e o f data ? I n practice , smelter s don' t alway s wor k nic e an d smoothly . Sometime s yo u hav e a fir e i n a ba g hous e an d sometime s thing s happe- n an d yo u suddenl yge t a whol e bunc ho f lea d comin g ou t tha t ma yno t sho wup? i n the ? ai r data , bu t i t doe? ; sho wu p i n t he ? so i 1 da t a .

I wi o n de r i f th a t i. s n o t a n o t h i e r c o mp 1 i. c a t i n g factor . I dion' t kno wi f tha t i s a rea l proble mo r not . For m e , it i s a ni ma gi nar yp r ob 1 em .

I f al l o f thes e problem s are ? rea l enough , i f yo u jus t thro w

ou t th e ide a o f regressin gsoil-lea dandair-lead , sa y yo uare

no t goin gt o d o it , ca nyo ustil l establis ha standard ? Ca nyo ustil l writ e anair-lea dstandar dwithou t correlatin gair-lea dandsoil-lead ?

I s ther e stil l som e othe r approac ht o gettin ga t wha t w e ar e tryin gt o do ?

MR . HOFFNAGLE : M y answe r t o tha t i s tha t 9 0 percen t o f th e changin gi nblood-lea dtha t i s bein gprojecte d her e i s a chang e i nsoil-lea dconcentration s s o tha t m y answe r i s no . Yo ucanno t se t i t unles s yo uhav e som e understandin go f wha t tha t is .

I wil l resppon

dthat , yes , sometime s yo ublo w a ba g hous e an dther e ar e accidents , e t cetera , tha t chang e th e soil-lea dconcentratio naroun dth e facilit y by a lot . I thin kt o g o bac kandpu t i t a differen t wa y is : 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.6 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 onship , ??:.

. -che rje tt

n o r C a I' I C J

•> tr. ' :.. . :: A Ill : :Jte ' : . V. ' c.:. ' I" i o n - ••+ : !- , 1 S we ? hav etha t

kin do f e1 at io ns h: ip b e; t w e ? ef ith et w o . fin darelationshi p betwee nai r lead s anddep >

o s it ec ile ad no wca n w e assum e th s a t w ewi1 1 b eabl et 1-leac i f in darela t

ions!'ii . p betwee ntha t ai"idthe ? c ort centra t

i. on':• ' Yo unee drmor edata . CHAIRMA

NLARSON : Idon' t wan t t o sto p th eflo w o f scientifi c thought , bu t Ithin k

wit hthi s foo dfo r additiona l discussio nprio r

t. o lunc hwh ydon' t w etak ea15-minut ebrea k an dfu r

the? r tha t discussion . Than k you , Gale . 

### MR . HOFFNAGLE : Thank you . [ Abrie f reces s wa s taken. 1 CHAIRMA

NLARSON : I thin k w e wil l pic k u p wher e w e lef t poff onth e particula r topi c o f th e soil/ai r relationships . Ianhad som e comment s h e woul d lik e t o shar e wit hu s a t thi s time .

DR . vo nLINDERN : I ha d basicall ytw o comment s o n th e Eas t Helen a informatio n tha t wa s presented , on e jus t t o ech o Mik e Rabinowitz ' commen t th e soi l level s are almos t assuredl yrelate d t o th e histor yo f th e facilit yand no t t o th e curren t measurement s tha t w e see . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-00641 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 I f yo u woul d q' O bac k an d loo k eithe r a t contro l eaqui p meri t er

r a t historica l monitorin g dat a i n th e vicinit yo f thes e smelters , ther e hav e bee nmuch , muc hhighe r concentration s i nth e past , th e bul!- : o f i t prio r t o 197 5 ari d i t continue? s alon g a t a lowe r patter nunti l abou t 197 8 t o 198 0 unti l control s cam e i ni nrespons e t o th e NAAQS .

S o i t i s a historica l proble mi n relatin g i t t o curren t concentration s whic hi s a specia l difficulty .

A s I understan d ho wtha t soi l informatio n wa s collection , wit hth e Eas t Helen a dat a I believe d the yuse d th e sam e methodolog yw e use di nBunke r Hill . Tha t concentratio ni s th e to pinc ho f minera l soil .

Inmos t cases , tha t i s a t leas t a ninc hdee p i n th e S'o i 1 profile . Wha t w e cal l th e litte r laye r or th e vegetativ e laye r o f th e so di s o nto po f tha t an d w e sample ? tha t separately . I believ e Eas t Helen a di d a s well .

Wha t i s measure dther e ha s a tempora l facto r wit h it , a s well . I t i s materia l tha t i s at leas t a coupl e o f season s ol di f no t older , andth e mos t recen t materia l i s probabl y

relate dt o th e curren t ai r concentration s tha t are use dan dwoul dbe , mor e appropriately , i nth e litte r layer .

Tha t wa s m

y commen t abou t explainin gsoil s dus t versu s soil s stree t dus t situations . Ina t leas t mos t o f th e smelte r studies , tha t soi l valu e i s no t a surfac e soi l sample : i s th e to pinc ho f th e minerals .

.)' • EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-005 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 DR

. MAHAFFEY : I hav e co m merit s an d on ? :: •0111t ~ : J I. J I " L

### wan t t o : •c i fbroa d Qe nara 1

•>ocee cwi ' thos e

I.. . i~ li- i. 1 I''., iI.- iI'• ! I.. . fiI•: . o I JI••! : 3

. , pi- ' rI ta p s a n yco n 1 1 n u i n g

v.. i . L:::>'.. . KJ :' ; s i o no n thi s particula r poin t tha t wa s raised ?

[N o response. 1 MR . COHEN : Ther e i s on e othe r issu e tha t Mike' s questio n bring s up . Wha t d o w e assum e fo r th e future ?

I n th e paper , w e identif ytw o ai l te r nativ e scenarios : one ? wher e w e assum e tha t so i 1- 1 eac i respond s t o change s i n air-lead , i nstantaneous l y ; andthe nth e othe r wher e we

maintai nsoil-lea dove r time . We fee l tha t ove r th e nex t fe w years , n o matte r wha t w e d o wit hth e air-lea dsituation , th e soil-lea di s no t goin gt o respon dsubstantially . W e thin ka mor e plausibl e scenari o i s maintainin gsoil-lea da t whateve r baselin e level s we ca ndefin e base donthes e empirica l observations .

Whe nw e tal kabou t th e cas e studie s a littl e later , I thin ki t wil l b e a littl e mor e clear ; bu t we ar e keepin gsoil-lea di nth e propose dapproac ha t constan t level s ove r th e nex t few years . I t ma y b e muc hdifferen t t o g o ou t 2 0 year s fro m now , bu t I thin ktha t i s beyon dou r scope .

DR . RABINOWITZ : S o yo udon' t us e th e derive d regressi'o nlin e betwee nsoil-lea dandair-lea di nyou r

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 r i o thin g tcp u t: Ln 1 1 .. ^ J

_i. . .

- fio re cas ti n g .

MR . COHEN : No t i n th t proposin g a s mor e plausible? . W e d o us e i t t o establis ha baselin e con e en t r a t i or - o f soil-lead . Othe r w i se , we ; wil l hav e o r s o i 1 —1 e a dc o nc e nt r a t i o ns , W e t n i n k thai t thes e av s reasonabl e re l ct i onsh:' . p s fo r th e equilibrate d concentrations .

MR . HAINES ; Wha t w e thin k w e ar e capturin g i n that , sinc e w e are usin g studie s fo r th e relate d a i r---qua l i t y s o i 1 - 1 ea d level , r e c o g n i 2 i n gpr i o r yea r s t o o n e ? t h i a t s t uci y collecte dth e air-qua l it y data , tha t ther e ma y hav e b e ca

n highe r things .

Bu t tha t i s representativ e o f wha t i s accumulate d

u pt o tha t pioin t an dtagge dfo r a give nstud y

area. Si o i t i s a n air-qualit y marke r associate dwit h tha t an dw e hav e varyin gsoil-lea dlevel s wit hvaryin gair qualit y

levels . CHAIRMA N

LARSON : D o yo use e an y air-lea d reasonabl y

constant , historically , a t thos e sites ? MR . COHEN : Yes . W e trie dt o us e studie s tha t di d

no t hav e majo r tumultuou s smelte r conditions . ' Yo ucan' t be? sur e o f tha t i nan y way . W e di dexclud e th e ba ghous e fire s an dthing s lik e that . DR . MARCUS : I nfact , a t th e Eas t Helen a sit e fo r

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 p. o c a t i on s thc-?r

e wa s essentia l l yf i ve , si x year s o f continuou s dat a tha t mad e i t ver yclea r tha t c onci i t i on s ha d be? e nreasonabl yconstan t ove r th e lengt ho f tim e tha t th e lea d uptak e historie s o f th e childre nbein g simulate d wer e u p t o five , si xyear s old .

S o tha t wa s a particula r 1 pocatio n a t whic hw e definitel yha d reaso nt> o believ e tha t w e wer e doin g a n essentiall ystabl e o r constan t environment .

MR . HAINES : I hav e o ne ? o t he?r o bse? r va t i o no na concer n expresse d b y Mike . Yo uhav e fluctuatin gemission s aroun da smelter . I t i s a proces s source . A secondar y

smelte r i s th e same ? t hi ng . Quarterl y bein gl-in-6-da y dat a i s no t th e greatest , bu t th e mea nvalu e tend s t o reflect , t o a degree? , peaks . Yo uca nse e day-to-da y variatio nwher e yo uhav e highe r peaks , bu t th e mea nwil l mov e u pi nrelatio nt o thos e peaks . S o th e quarterl y averag e i s no t devoi do f som e representatio no f that . I t ma y no t captur e th e tru e magnitud e o f them , bu t i t i s reflecte di nthe-mea nvalue .

S o I think , usin gthi s historica l air-qualit y dat a give s u s a reasonabl e basi s t o assum e a baselin e going-i n point . CHAIRMAN LARSON : Wha t d o yo ud o abou t historica l 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 ..i ,. J

.. . .(.

. ... . . .!

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. n q lea d i

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e change s re f1.t? cte::-db ' MR

. COHEN: ; W

e ar e no tgoin g t o mak e an ychange s : •aresul to ftha tdecline

. Th e area s w e ar e \, I_ I -: •i.. i 1 J 1 l-. v•:::' . U e

? c1 1 ya d j a ce n tto t ! ' i e p i. o i ri ts >

o u rce ; a ri i lociiun q a tar e • t h e soil--lea d ther e is ; d o m i nate d b yth e emission s fro m tha t facii i ty . Th e gasolin e contribution s see mt o b e relativel y small . W e thin k w e are capturin g i t b yusin g the ? empirica l data , bu t w e ar e no t goin g t o mak e an yadjustmen t fo r th e de c 1 i nes . DR . McLAME' : Well , t o som e exten t w e have . Wha t

w e d o i n ou r forecastin g methodolog yi s w e us e th e IF C short

ter mdispersio nmode l t o figur e ou t th e point s o f interes t where ? peopl e ar e generall ylocated , wha t th e ambien t concentratio n i s fro mth e source , an d the nw e ad d o nassume d background . T o som e extent , i f tha t backgroun d reflect s whateve r residua l lea d i s i ngasoline , the ni t wil l b e capture s t o tha t extent .

DR . MAHAFFEY : I hav e anothe r questio nabou t wha t th e ambien t measurement s are.

I n som e o f th e o c c u p a t i o n a 1 literature , th e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 problem s o f Ontari o i n revisin g thei r acceptabl e occap:: - standard s analyse d dat a wher e ther e wa s bot hambien t ai r sa mp 1 i i "

t g p I u s th e c

i u s t tha t a c c u mulat e di n va r i o u s p I a nt ; T I ne yreall yc a me t o th e c o i " i c 1 u s i o n -•. nt? y reall ycoul d no t rel yo njus t ambien t samplin g t o reflec t blood-lea d eve ni n occupa t i ponal exposures .

S o i n th e kin d o f ambien t sampl e yo u woul d hav e o u t s i . de a p 1 a nt , wo u1 d yo L

Abe mi s s i ng mu c ho f t ! ' i e h i e a vi e r particulat e tha t migh t neve r reall ysho wu p i nyou r ambic-?n t s a m plin ge v e nwi t hr e 1 a t ive1 y high-vo1 u me samp 1 e r s ? I gues s I questio nth e exten t t o whic hth e ambien t sampling—whic hha s certainly , i ntime , bee na relativel y shor t sample—reflect s wha t ma y b e comin gou t o f th e plant , CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Theare mus t b e som e relationshi p here . From

our discussion , I a m pickin gu

pan interpretatio ntha t thes e ar e relativel y stead y

ai r level s ove r tim e andreflec t th e soi l value s that , thearefore , reflec t som e longer-ter m exposure . Ther e ar e sor t o f steady-stat e points , i f yo u will , o na graph . Ther e i s no t necessaril y som e immediat e relationship .

DR . vo nLINDERN : I think , again , i t depend s on wher e yo uloo ki nth e soi l columnt o som e extent . Whe nw e loo ka t tha t to pinc ho f minera l soil , whic hi s agai nbelo w J. EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 24 2 5 Ove rtha t15-yea rperiod , w e have. ; ha d a10 0 fol d decreas e i n ai rborn'? ? level??

. S o tha tparticula rlaye rstay s fairl yconstant , i fypo u wan tt o assum e a constan tfo rthat

.

Wha ti s i miiiec i i a te l yo n the ? surface , though , i s more ? of

a dus tproblem

. MR

. HAINES : On e o fth e issue s tha tw e don' thav e an answe rto , whic h I thin k i s par to fthi s problem , is : l- J h i a th i i s th e a cce s s i b 1 e soi l 1 e ve 1 ?

DR

. vo n LINDERN : T o child re? n . 

### MR . HAINES : T o children . I think , unfortunately , w e don' t hav e a goo d answer . W e d'on' t kno who wt o characteris e that : whethe r or no t the yare

gettin g th e to p 1 t o 5 centimeters . That , I think , i s goin g t o var ywit hth e situatio n i nwhic hthe yar e placed . I f the yar e .o n a dir t pla yyar d i n anurba n are a and the yar e chewin g up , yo u hav e t o b e concerne d wit hmuc h deepe r sio

i 1 depths . Othe r situation s mayno t b e ver y accessibl e fo r a ver ylong perio d o f time .

In grass yareas , i t work s it s wa ydown . I f yo u cu t of f emissions , the yma yno t hav e readyacces s t o it ; bu t thi s i s somethin g nobodyha s looke d a t tha t I amawar e of . W e don' t kno who wt o addres s it .

Thi s i s on e reason , I think , w e hav e conclude d EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4)

•:•:& > b'iSS >

> 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 24 2 5 fro mbot hproblem s wit hes t in , atin g wha t

the : W edon' t hav ean ydet: : o f longitudina lnat u hanqo ?



### inusin g a s •Jbi i L

- h a i-

. Wi t h- r e du c t i o ns i nai r g u a 1 i t y , wha t h a p p e n= t c - t he ? :;: : u r f a . c e s tha t ar e accessible ?

S' O I thin k ou r preferre d pat his ; t o tr yt o assume ? wha t th e baselin e i s i n th e are a th e be?s t we. ? robus t a dat a set , usin g al l availabl e data:, , i nher e th e soil-lea d a s a constan t an d vary , wit hai r qua 1 i t y , w

h i a t w e c a 1 1 t he du s t - 1 e a d , w hi c 1 i w e de s c r i be a s tha t bein gimmediatel y deposite donth e surface , whic hw e thin kshoul db e fairl y contemporaneou s wit hair-qualit y 1 evels . W e fee l thi s woul db e th e rruos t reasone dapproac h aroun dthi s part' s tota l dat a gap s w e have .

DR . vo nLINDERN : I thin ktha t i s correct , certainly . Th e othe r complicater—an dmayb e w e hav e on e o f th e few

site s wher e thi s become s a seriou s complicater—i s tha t soi l belo w

th e sourc e itself , i nadditio nt o air . MR . HAINES : Yes . DR . vo nLINDERN : It als o get s int o th e pathway . S o wha t yo uare seein gi nth e hom e a s hous e dus t ands o on ha s com e fro

m tha t a s wel l a s fro m th e airborne . MR . HAINES : Thi s i s from re-entrainmen t sources . Hopefully , thi s i s wher e you r ai r qualit y come s in . .A

s tha t

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.7 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 I . i

_IL.». C* IJ . t; ' L fothe r dus t is ' re-sus p ende d t o settl e ou t i n th e homes , i t r e f 1 e c t e d o nt li e mo n 1 1 o r 5 . DR . vo nLINDERN : Ther e are pathway s tha t a t leas t w e dea l with .

On e i s actuall ytrackin g tha t materia l int o th e home , an d anothe r on e i s pet s i nbringin g tha t materia l in . This ; i s neve r see ni n th e air-qualit ymonitors .

DR . McLAMB : We? capturec i tha t a s mu c ha s we? co u 1 d i n th e analysi s w e di d >o n soil , air , an d Ic e a d dust . I n thee househol d dus t equation , w e d o hav e a nunexp l a n abl e variable ? o f soi l whic hcan , I believe , captur e wha t yo u are referrin g to . MR . COHEN : Kati e raise d a nissue—- I don' t kno wi f anybod yha s an ydata ; w e migh t a s wel l as k whil e we? are her e o n core-siz e particle s tha t woul d no t b e collecte d b ya high-volum e instrument .

MR . HAINES : Thi s i s basicall yfor distributio no f cor e particles .

MR . HOFFNAGLE : Th e dust-fall-bucke t dat a include s somethin glarge r tha nth e high-volum e sampler , bu t yo ucanno t ge t a particula r siz e onit . I t i s certainl y no t don e routinely . MR . HAINES : Th e bes t wa y t o com e upwit ha respons e t o th e issu e i s t o tak e a namoun t o f lea dan dloo k a t th e distributio no f particles , pe r se , andassum e tha t

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.7 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 24 2 5 G I si ri bu ti on s

t c be.- !• . a \ e

- s :.: • fv . e t hi nz\

I :- ke vt hs. t f r o mt he? s e gener a I i :•: e ? c i icius e w e do r ' t hav e i t fo r 1 e a d •- • spe c i f i c tha t awar e of . W e coul d no t fin d an ywhe nw e attempte d t o addres s

HOFFNAGLE : dist r i bu t i ons , o course , i nthe ? e?m i ss i ons , an d the yar e measured . MR . HAINES : Unfortunately , fro mth e poin t o f vie w o f the ? principa l source s no wbein gfuture di nth e storag e p i leas , I thin kw e eve nhav e spars e dat a ther e i nsiz e o f that . A s we loo kat th e worl dtoday , th e stack s i f th e c c o n t r o 1 s a r e o pe ; r a t i n ga r e r easonabl y wel l —

c ont r oile dan d probabl y

are no t havin ga significan t wher e w e are seein gth e hig hblo'o

dlevel s i nth e children , whic hare quit e close . Al l we hav e i s a fugitiv e dus t problem : eithe r proces s fugitive s comin gof f or handling , yar dcontaminatio n bein gre—entrained .

I a m unawar e tha t thos e particle s hav e eve r bee n sized . CHAIRMAN LARSON : Tha t i s a challengin gand difficul t problem , mor e difficult.tha ni t seems .

DR . MAHAFFEY : Coul dw e tur ngenera l for a bit ? CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Tha t i s fine . I wa s jus t goin g t o sugges t tha t w e g o t o eac hindividua l member , perhap s EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4

# J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 startin g wit hyou , t o giv e u s you r gtane va l impres-hon s o f the e report „ DR . MAHAFFEY : Alon g tim e agio whe nw e starte d som e o f tiiis , on e io f th e concern s ha d be?e n talkin g abou t a: u - 1ead/b1ood-1ea d ratio s becaus e whil e ther e i s somethin g tha t traditionally , perhaps , ha s bee ndone , ther e wer e som e majo r reaison s fo r doin g jus t that .

Include d i nthes e reason s wer e th e fac t tha t i t seem s simplisti c t o loo k onl y a t ai r wit hth e realizatio n tha t th e lea dan d ai r wind s up i n th e street , an d thi s wa s bac kwhe nth e street s wer e containin g3,00 0 an d 4,00 0 part s pe r millio nlea dbecaus e o f lea di ngasoline .

S o th e nee dt o pha.s e downlea dingasoline ? wa s recognized . N o on e need s t o hea r tha t histor y again . Bu t w e stil l are

dealin gwit htryin gt o loo ka t air-lea danddust-lead . On e o f th e question s tha t stand s ou t t o m e i nthi s modelin gexercise—an dthi s i s no t reall y t o spea kharshl y

o f th e model , bu t t o reall y as kwher e i s thi s going—i s yo uhav e t o questio nwha t kin do f generalization s ca nb e drawnfro m thi s model : Wher e ca ni t b e applied ? W e liv e near , no t to o near , a plan t tha t ha s ha d som e proble m

wit huranium

discharges . I f yo uar e talkin g abou t particulat e airborn e whatever , ther e i s a temptatio nt o us e thi s mode l tha t i t ma y wel l no t appl y

ver y directly . I thin kmayb e som e o f thi s ha s happene da bi t ove r EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S ( 3 01 ) 5 6 5 - 0 0 6 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 20 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 25 time

. Whe n w e stai rte d worryin g abou t goe s an d i twind s u p i n th e street , w e wer e really , a ttha t time , mor e concerne d wit h c. n urba n env i rorii<ie?n tan d ho wmuc h lea d wa s windin g u p i n th e stree tfro m gasolin e emissions

.

I a m makin g som e assumption s here , bu ton e 'O fth e reaso n s yo u were - usin g th e sm e 1 1 e r-s i te i n fo rma ti o n >o n th e town s i n Montan ai s becaus e the yar e characterized , because ? 

### ther ete r

: nui iVo 

### b edat at o 1 a t thes e and an absenc e o f dat a i s on e o f th e majo r problem s throughout .

Th e kind o f discussio n wa s ha d o nwhic hlaye r o f t h e s o i 1 an

d dus t r e

? fleet s long-ter mlea d e ? m i s s i o n s tha t h a ve ? wound u

p i n soil . Contrastin g thes e wit hth e curren t aii r leve l i s on e kind o f correlatio n rati o regression , whateve r kind s of , analysi s yo u d o wit hi t i ntryin g t o estimat e exposure . Yo u ar e relatin g thi s bac k t* o an interna l marke r o f thos e blood-lead s tha t onl yi npar t reflec t curren t exposures . Ther e i s on e sentenc e bac k i nher e tha t eve n wit h th e be?st situatio n i nterm s o f environmen t measuremen t yo u coul d explai n 3 0 percen t o f th e variatio ni nblood-lead .

Thi s tell s yo u ther e i s anawfu l lo t missing . Thi s i s eve nwit hth e bes t situation .

S o I thin k i nmayway s wha t ha s bee ndon e wit hth e mode l i s clos e t o a s goo d a s w e kno who wt o d o righ t now : tha t ther e i s a seriou s absenc e o f informatio n t o wor k with . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 o Ip r o b 1 em . o unc n t h e fac t i .... i >.. ' 1 1 •p., extrapolate d i n term s o i iothe? rkind s of envi ronfiie?i";ta i problem s .-of , i fi tis , her e ha s t o b e rea l y ecogn i 1 1 o n o f wha tp ••<r

ts o fi tca n a n d ca r, n o tb e . Tha ti s a poin tI reall ywan tt o emphae i ::;e „ I thin k

anothe rproble m i s tha twh i il e w e are ? intereste d i n b i ok i ne ti

. c s yoL i cannCJ tfor ge tth e b i o

1 ogy , th e physiolog ytha tundermine s the ? biopar ti n biokineti c modeling

. The ya re d i ff i cu1 1 issu e s .

Yio u a^ re a1 1 emp ti n g t o us e i n fo rma tio n tha tcam e fro m adul tmale s i n tryin g t o extrapolat e thes e kind s o f patters n o fexposur e an d th e distributio n o flea d withi n physiologica l system s t o women , i n particula rpregnan twomen , an d transfe ro flea d fro m th e mothe rt o th e fea tus .

W e kmo wtha tth e lea d i s transferred

. Ther e are cas e report s tha ttal k abou tcongenita l 1ea d poisoning

. W e krio wa littl e bi tabou tthis , bu tw e reall yd'on' tkno wver y muc h abou ti texcep ttha ti thappen s an d that , give n th e longitudina l studie s o n neuro-behaviora l effect s o flow-leve l lea d exposure , lio wbliood-lead s ar e quit e important

.

W e d'on' thav e muc h experienc e wit h tryin g t o mode l exposur e i n differen tbod ycompartment s o flea d a tthes e lo w exposures . Ther e jus ti s no tmuc h ther e t o wor k with , excep t tha tw e kno wtha ti ti s ver yimportant

. EXECUTIV E COUR TREPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 3 Uc i L j •::- • 1 i I ;hin k

tha tthi s ha s b e ejmphasize d i n t h i e c l i s c u••::•

s .o n

.. ;..i ori • i ,

i c p r i.o

b1 em . wan t t' O r.eall ygi.o o n wit hth e

I realiz e tha t yo u are tryin g t o solve ; a

Bu t I wan t t o cautio n strongl yagains t tryin g t' O extrapolat e thi s mode l mor e broadl ytha n I expec t wil l happen . CHAIRMA NLARSON : Wh ydon' t w e g o aroun d th e tabl e an d le t peopl e share ? thei r genera l impression s o f th e docket , chapte r b

y chapter , membe r by member , I guess . Woul dyo ulike ? t o start , Dr . Chisolm ? DR . CHISOLM : Well , I thin kanoveral l commen t i s tha t give nal l th e unknown s andal l o f th e variability , yo u probabl y

di da s wel l a s yo ucould . I thin kon e o f th e bigges t variabilit y i nal l o f thi s i s th e relativ e amoun t o f soi l tha t childre nwil l ea t an dwhethe r or no t w e compar e Dutc hchildren .

I a m reminde d>o

f a quot e fro

m Rud y ar dKiplin gt o th e effec t tha t thos e wh o conside r cleanlines s secon donl y t o godlines s hav e a damnlow opinio no f godliness . [Laughter ] I thin kth e Dutc hmigh t plac e i t a littl e highe r tha nman y

segment s o f ou r society . T o me , tha t i s th e bigges t uncertaint y becaus e i t

) • • EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 45 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 14 1 i s be?ha-v: l o : a l

. Yo u ar e talkin g abou tbiology , bu ti ti s a 2 behaviora l difference ? amon g children

. 3 Yo u reall yh&v e t o giv e fairl ybroa d leewa yt o 4 that , I think

. CHAIRMA N LARSON : D o yo u fee l tha tth e number s ;ha twer e presente d ther e captur e th e rang e o funcertainty ?

D R

. C HI S 0 LM : l a m n o tsur e abou tth at . S u p p o s e j e se e th e stair—ste p childre n i n town . Yo u ca nge t a wid e

c i r cu mstances .

Yo u ma ysa ytha t i t i s th e two-year—ol d wh o ha s th e highes t blood-lead , bu t tha t i s no t alway s true . I sometime s wonde r abou t wh yI sa yth e five-year-ol d migh t b e muc hhighe r i n th e sam e circumstances . 15 I ca nthin k o f al l sort s o f things . Mayb e he r 16 fathe r was ; no t th e sam e a s he r husband , yo u know , an d thi s 1 7 kin d i s rejected . 1 8 I a mjus t sayin g tha t ther e ar e a lo t o f 1 9 behaviora l difference s tha t mak e fo r othe r massiv e 2 0 differences

. 21 I recal l a chil d w e ha d i nth e hospita l n o mor e 2 2 tha nabou t si xweek s ag o wit ha blood-lea din , I think , th e 2 3 middl e 60 s an d ye t he r sibling s wer e no t ove r abou t 20 . The y 2 4 live d i nth e sam e circumstances . 2 5 S o ther e ha s t o b e somethin g abou t tha t particula r EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4\-...-mi

Syy •

•••'.'I'm-?'

'Z '--...• . ' 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 15 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 21 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 i

'"' l b individual . Ofte n we se e a broa d range . I don' t thin k i t i s co m(i t o n t o se e childre n livin g i n th e sam e abod e wit hblooci-lead:: ? rangin g fro mS O t o 25, . I t i s no t unusua l a t all .

I a mtalkin g abou t childre n i n ol d houses . I t i s th e sam e genera l exposur e fo r everybody . S o I d'on' t kno w tha t i t rea l 1 yw a s contrar y .

I n Eas t !-! e 1 ena , thi o s e ar e fairl yw e 1 1 -• • to—dC J people . The yare ? no t puu r people , . 1 don' t think . Ther e are a lo t o f socioeconomi c differences .

Ther e are

difference-as , I think , i nth e degre e t o whic hmother s o f differen t ethni c background s wil l tolerat e a 1 o t o f exces s ha nd- 1 o - m o ut ha c t i v

i t y . S o I t hi nki f y o u w e ? r e t o g o d o thi s stud y in , say , severa l sec t i pons o f Bosto nyo u migh t com e u pwit hquit e differen t answers .

Tha t woul db e a reaso nfo r no t extrapio l a t i n gwha t ha s bee nfoun di nNort hHollan do r wha t ha s bee nfoun di n Eas t Helen a t o th e whol e population .

I woul dals o say , tr y t o gro w

som e gras s i nthe ? bac kyar dwher e yo uhav e youn gchildren .

CLaughter l CHAIRMA N

LARSON : Tha t i s a challenge . DR . CHISOLM : I t is . S o I thin kyou r commen t abou t th e surfac e soi l bein gconstan t i s wel l taken .

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4

* % 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 MR . HAINES ; D o yo u wan t L\.\ t o interjec t an y observations ?

CHAIRMA NLARSON s An yquestions ? MR . HAINES : Tw o points . Goin g bac k t>

o th e variation , w e hav e tw o stage s here . I s th e modc-? l recognizin g ther e i s goin gt o b e a wid e degree ? Hav e we capture d wel l eriioug htha t w e ca npredic t a mea nrecognizin gtha t w e €\rc-. goin gt o appl yth e GS Do nto p o f tha t mea nt o tr y t o captur e th e variabilit y i ni t andth e fac t tha t th e GS Dderive dfro m th e Eas t Helen a wor ki s similar - t o wha t i s derive dfro m NHANES ? It i s independentl y arrive dat . I t ma y b e a perfec t tool , bu t a t leas t w e ar e tryin gt o interjec t i ntha t variabilit y

wha t yo uare

seeing . DR . CHISOLM : I jus t wonde r i f yo uhav e enoug hi n it . MR . HAINES : Yes .

I a m no t sur e how

t o approac hi t othe r tha nwha t w e are doing . W e are

tryin gt o ge t a t tha t proble m through , really , a two-stag e approach .

Onth e uptak e side , onth e us e o f th e Dutc hdat a i t i s m

y understandin gth e wa y Jes s applie dtha t i s basicall y us e thos e childre nthe y looke da t i nth e hospita l itsel f i n conjunctio nwit hBinde r t o deriv e th e tru e baseline. '

I s tha t th e bes t wa y t o sa y

it , Jeff : for a bette r EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 MR. COHEN : BiMber , the nc::,:.t-,b LM Idietar y absorptio no f

thoM aelements . MR . HAINES: : Yes . MR . C 0 H EN : Tha t i s a bi . g c hu n k o f

th e p i c: t u r e . Th e or i 1 ydat a t ha t v.; e ha d tha t w e t hough t we c o u 1 d eas i I y ap p I yt o tha t wa s th e C I a usen data : c hi I d r e n wh o wer e no t

r o 1 1 i n g a r o u n d i n th e c ! i r t .

Unti l th e dat a fro mth e ongoin g studie s are available , I don' t thin k we ? ca n reall yaddres s tha t i nan y othe r way . I don' t thin k it woul d b e appropriat e f'o r u s t o us e th e dir t ingestio n rate s tha t Clause n foun d fo r those ? children . I agre e ther e i s probabl ya whol e differen t se t o f be h i a v i o r s be t wee n t he t wo k i n d s o f p o p u 1 a t i o n s .

W e hav e trie d t o us e th e Binde r study , bu t usin g th e Dutc hdat a t o adjus t fo r th e unmeasure d trac e e l cemen t absorption . DR . MARCUS : On e mor e commen t o nth e variatio n an d th e cultura l f act o r s .

Som e o f th e Cincinnat i studies , publishe d i n EQlti*120n*<=oJi.§ I E<=searc habou t thre e year s ago , actuall yshowe d ho wvariou s subscale s o f th e Caldwel l Hom e Inde x quantitativel ymediate d the hdust-lea d t o hend-lea d t o blood

lea d pathways . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.8 0

)



# _J

. . . '- * • 

### b ; 

### S-

- yy<y

• i ^ . L ' . ' 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 /.- . -1- , muc haware ? o f

tha t tha t 'onl y3 0percen t Tha t i s th e o f t hevar iar ic e ? i;:: • W eare v e reason , a s wa s said , expla ined . ' A s fa r a s thes emodel s ar econcerned , thi s is ; t reaso nwh yw ebelie?v et r I fc? yr: t r e reflectiv e o f typica l ..lues i np'Opu l a t i on s o f children . I believ e w e ar e awar e o f th e limitation s i n usin g the ma s a too l fo r predictin g individua l ch i 1 d r en ' s b l iood- 1 eads .

Ther e a

t r e a lo t o f source s o f variation . DR . CHISOLM : I wa s no t puttin gi t tha t way . DR . MARCUS : Okay . DR . CHISOLM : I wa s puttin gi t mor e 'o ndifferen t socia l strat a anddifferen t ethni c group s tha t tak e quit e a differen t attitud e io nit . DR . MARCUS : Yes , sometime s eve ni nth e sam e locatio ni f thi s wer e t o b e applie dt o population s abou t whic hon e ha drelativel y littl e suc hbaselin e information . MR . COHEN : Ther e i s on e othe r poin t tha t Kati e brough t uponth e lac ko f biokineti c dat a durin gpregnancy .

W e are lef t wit hestimatin gblood-lead s f'o r tha t populatio nusin gai r b l cod-lea dslope s derive dfro m mal e studies , basically . Ther e i s a rea l proble m wit hthat . W e are no t usin gan y biokineti c adjustment s f'o r that . DR . MUSHAK : In1985 , w e ha da jioin t conference . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.8 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 24 2 5 Marc o Zarec h discusse d dat afro m avillag e i n Yugoslavia

. The yha d ase? to fwome n wh o wer e studied , serial , fo, - blood-le?ad

. Tbeliev e thei rlead s ar e availabl e fo rtha t period , an d probabl ydust-leads , also

.

S o tha ti s a grou p whic h ca n probabl yb e probe d i n muc h c1 osei " detail

. Vo u migh twan tt o chec k wit h Grazian o fr o rn C o 1 u i n b i a . H e p r - Q b a b 1 yh a s al l o fth a tpro g ra m . f-1R

. F L A Al< : Ther e wa s hig h lea d i n part o fi t? DR

. MUSHAK : Reaso n ab1y

. DR

. MAHAFFEY : The yha d a coupl e differen tgroups , didn' tthey ? The yha d differen tenvironmenta l location s o f b 1 cod—1ea d exposure ?

DR . MUSHAK : Right . Thi s i s a subgrou p i nwhic hpregnancie s wer e followe d an d the?ywer e serial . Ther e wer e somethin g lik e 7 o r 3 point s eac hmont ho f thei r pregnancies .

DR . MARCUS : Ther e i s als o th e Manto nisotop e data . DR . MAHAFFEY : Tha t i s onl y.o n tw o o r thre e people , though , right ?

DR . MUSHAK : Right . That' s wha t we " ar e lef t with . .MR . HAINES : Fiv e femal e subject s i nth e Dutc h study , bu t tha t wa s fo r a ver yshor t exposure .

DR . MAHAFFEY : A s I recal l tha t data , di d thei r b l 'Ood-lead s g o up faste r o r the yha d a greate r respons e f>o r a EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4'

-

. y

•t5ifeJS\-'r . : . •:*ss~iti: • •yr-'?. 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 give n b1 o o d-1ead ? Ther e wer e definit e difference s betwee n the ? a n d fe

? m a 1 e s u b j e cts . DR

. MARCU ! MR . HAINES : Thi s raise s a sor t o f provocativ e questio n fro m

ou r poin t o f vi ew . W e recogniz e th e limitation s o f tryin g t o estimat e materna l blood-leads . Par t o f ou r dilemm a i s we? have ? identifie d th e fetu s an d ar e tryin g t o trigge r back .

Whe nw e tr yt o mak e us e o f th e data , i t ma yb e s o inappropriat e tha t mayb e w e shoul d no t b e attemptin g t o us e thes e model s t o predic t tha t relationshi pbetwee nadul t females ' materna l blood-leads .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Tha t i s th e sens e o f wha t I an t hea r i ng . MR . HAINES : Wha t I don' t wan t t o d o i s attemp t t o tak e wha t ver y

limite ddat a w e have , tr y t o appl y

it , an d the nsay , "No , w e shoul dno t b e doin git. " Th e bette r respons e ma y

b e tha t w e canno t mak e thos e estimate s a t thi s poin t i ntim e andw e ough t t o focu s onchildre nfor who m w e ca nd o a reasonabl e jo bo f estimatin gexposures .

DR . MUSHAK : I don' t thin kanybod y i s sayin gtha t th e pregnanc y

tai l shoul db e waggin gth e exposure-analysi s dog . I f yo uhav e th e information , us e it ; bu t kee pwha t yo u have . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 MR . HAINES : Okay , accordin g t o th e cavea t o f th e limitation s o f wha t w e are doing . Okay . I jus t wan t t o be ? clea r o nthat . DR . MAHAFFEY : I reviewe da lo t o f th e lead-in

p r e?g nan c yi nf o r ma t i . o nf o r some t hi n g tha t w e a r e do i n g a t NIH . I t i s clea r tha t whil e th e cor dbloo d—lead s art ? ver yclos e t o th e materna l b l ood- 1 eads , ther e are a l>ot o f a c J di t i o na 1 c o m p a r t m e nt s . Yo u h

i a ve t o tak e i nt o acc o u nt t he amnioti c fluid , th e membrane s th e placenta .

Ther e are

differen t component s her e tha t ma yno t reall y agre e tha t wel l wit hth e materna l an dth e cor dblood lead . ' Tha t par t i s no t wel1-studied . Wha t w e kno w ma y b e reall y base do nlea dpoisonin gpatholog y cases . S o I thin kPaul' s poin t i s wel l taken : tha t yo u don' t ignor e th e issue ; bu t tha t th e othe r sid e o f thi s i s t o recognize , an db e ver y u pfron t about , tha t thes e ar e jus t basicall y

bes t estimate s i nth e absenc e o f dat a fo r th e grou p o f concern , recognizin gth e Manto ndat a tha t show s tha t bone - lea ddoe s contribut e an dwhateve r yo uca n.obtai nfro m th e Yugoslavia nexperience .

DR . MUSHAK : I thin kyo umigh t also ' ad dth e paradoxica l effec t tha t yo uge t i nth e Australia nsubse t wher e yo ufin dtha t fetuse s apparentl y are servin ga s a sink : tha t is , wit hhighe r lea dexposures . Yo uge t lowe r blood lea dlevel s i nwomen . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.8 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 Tha ti s writte n u p i n Mik e Davis; ' paper . Tha ti s goin g t o b e afurthe rproblem : wh yyo u canri'O tus e a n end

.

CHAIRMA NLARSON : Okay . Ian , woul d yio

u lik e t' O summarize . I kno wyo u hav e alread yshar e d wi t hu s s o ii i e o f y o u r t ho u qht s . DR . vo n LINDERN : W e hav e hear d thi s before . I thin ki t i s a goo djo ban dI thin ki t i s a s comprehensiv e a s i t ca nbe . I -spent th e las t yea r tryin gt o d o thi s fo r on e sit e an di t ha s drive nm e nuts . The yare tryin gt o d o i t f'o r th e world . C Laug hte r I I I hav e a coupl e o f thing s t o share . I thin kDr . Chisolm' s commen t i s ver y appropriate . O nou r side , w e hav e develope da ris kprofil e fo r childre nwh o are typica l an d thos e wh o are

wha t w e cal l hig hrisk , an dthe y are th e one s tha t w e hav e t o worr y about . W e hav e don e th e bac kcalculation s o ningestio n rates . B y

th e way , Regio n1 0 release dtha t documen t o n Frida y

s o yo uguy s ca nhav e copie s o f it . A t ou r site , i t look s t o u s lik e 5 0 milligram s pe r da y soi l ingestio nmigh t b e appropriat e fo r th e typica l child , bu t whe nyo uloo ka t th e high-ris kchild , th e chil d tha t w e ar e concerne dwit hprotecting , i t run s u pi nth e 10 0 area.

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER ! (301 ) 565-006 4P.8 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 8 4

Regio n10' s positio n o ntha t tha t the yar e offerin g ou t a t thi s tim e i s tha t w e ar e goin g t o us e th e 10 0 milligra m

pe r da yvalue? . Si.o the?re ? i s a. wide ? variatio n an d i t d e p e r i ds o nt he ve ? r yf a c t o r s t ha t Dr . C hi. s o 1 mi s t a 1 k i n g about . 01 1 '

i e r c o m

m e r 1 1 s s T h

i e a i r - 1 e a dt o s o i 1 s a n d du s t thin g doe s bothe r me . I thin k tha t i s a very difficul t one ? t o do . A s I said , th e relationshi po f th e smelte r situatio ni s a s t o wha t ha s gon e ona t tha t smelte r ove r the? las t 3 0 year s andmo t wha t w e are measurin gtoday . Th e othe r thin gI mot e i nth e smelte r tha t I nee d t o explai na littl e better , tha t wa s i nm y comments , wa s no t •onl y i s lea duptak e relate dt o th e soi l concentration s tha t w e se e i nchildren' s yards , bu t ther e seem s t o b e anothe r facto r a s wel l that , for us , seem s t o b e explaine db y jus t th e genera l leve l o f contaminatio nnea r th e smelter .

Mayb e th e othe r soil s tha t childre nca nge t i n contac t wit hi nadditio nt o th e one s specificall y measure di n thei r ownyar danddus t condition s i nstreets , an ds o onI thin kar e importan t factors .

Caro l Engel , I think , note dtha t i nhe r papers . Th e communit y

exposur e ende dupbein gmor e importan t tha nth e individual' s yar dexposure .

Th e othe r ppoin

t I hav e no t hear dmuc h>on—an dI EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.8 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 don' t kno wi f thi s i s th e appropriate ? place , bu t I thin k w e shoul d sa yit—ha? ? t o d o wit hth e nnoni t o r i n g frequenc yo f th e NWAQS . I thin k th e on e tha t i s i n plac e no wfo r a situatio n lik e our s i s almos t totall y inadequate . Tha t i s a measur e onc e every 6 clays whe nwe probabl yhav e abou t 1 1 day s a yea r i n whic htranspor t o f materia l int o th e home s an d dus t s t o i " m s i s o u r critica l variable . W e d on' t m e a s ur e that . I thin ki t als o shoul db e looke da t i nterm s o f upset s andmalfunction s i nsmelte r situations . Regio n6 di d ananalysi s bac ki n13S 4 a t th e Teflu s Smelte r whic hyo u migh t wan t t o tak e a loo kat , inwhich . I thin ki t wa s 4 5 percen t o f th e tota l exposur e ove r a three-mont hperio dwa s associate dwit hon e upse t a t th e complex , whic hwa s actuall y tie dbac kt o 5 minute s o f a fanbein goff .

A short-ter m

even t ca nendupcausin gquit e a bi t o f th e exposur e tha t w e se e i nth e community . Thos e are th e type s o f exposure s wher e large r particle s ge t ou t andge t i n th e hous e dust .

M y othe r poin t wa s I thin ka s muc h'a s w e wis ht o sa y tha t thi s i s a nair-qualit y situation , I kno w ther e i s a t leas t on e perso nsittin ga t thi s tabl e andsevera l i nth e audience , I think , wh o are probabl y

a s concerne dwit hho w thi s i s applie dt o soi l clean-up s i nth e country . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.8 7

. '

, J

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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 8 6

I thin k w e shoul d al l recogniz e tha t thi s ca n b e use d fo r tha t an d som e o f th e assumption s tha t w e mak e shoul d bea r tha t i n mind .

CHAIRMA NLARSON : D o yo u t hi . nki . t i s a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t ha t a p p 1 i c a t t i o n: s o i 1 c 1 e a n— u p' ? D R . vo n LINDERN : Absolutely . I thin k i t i s th e bes t tha t ther e is , bu t y'0 u hav e t o mak e assump t i on s . CHAIRMA NLARSON : Ri g ht . DR . vo n LINDERN : Yo u nee d t o evaluate ? thos e assumption s i nterm s o f wha t th e ultimat e remed yi s goin g t' O b e applie d here .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : John , di d yo u hav e som e questions ? Acomment ?

MR . HAINES : I woul d jus t mak e th e observatio n tha t w e are

concerne d abou t th e monitorin g issue . We? wil l b e addressin gtha t i nth e staf f pape r bot hwit hregar d t o monitorin gsitin grequirement s andt o th e frequenc y o f th e sampling . Earl y nex t year , w e wil l b e layin g that t ou t i n staff-pape r fior

m and , later , lookin ga t neede drevisiion s t o th e air-qualit y

surveillanc e requirements . MR . COHEN : I hav e >on e mor e comment . Th e fac t tha t communit y exposure , no t necessaril y home-to-hom e yard-to-yar dsoil-lea dlevels , ma y b e mior

e predictiv e or a bette r surrogat e for integrate dexposures , d o EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4

-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 yo u thin k tha t woul d ten d t o suppor t ou r us e o f th e dat a tha t w e identifie d fro mal l sort s 'O f situation s i nth e appendi xther e a s oppose d t o th e Eas t Helen a dat a se t wher e th e so i 1 c olie c t i >oli s wer e don e f o r ea c hhouse ? On e o f the ? '.othe

r studie s tha t the vwen t ou t ; ° o i a par k 'O

r a playground , fo r example . D R . vo n LINDERN : I d on' t n ecessa r i1 ybe1i e ve t ha t i t i s a bette r one . I thin k i t i s a nadditiona l one .

I thin k tha t i nth e pathway s i t woul d reflec t that : tha t childre nare expose d i nthei r ow nhom e yar d an d house , an d the yals o ge t ou t aroun d th e neighborhoo dan d ge t i n t o th e oth e r sou r c es .

S o I thin kthe y

bot hshoul db e used . Infact , w e hav e mad e a nattemp t t o us e bot ho f the m i nth e Regio n1 0 analys i s . CHAIRMAN LARSON : Okay . Dr . Clark ? DR . CLARK : Mos t miodel s sho w tha t i t i s th e uptak e from th e soil s an dth e dus t tha t ge t t o th e children . S o seein gtha t onc e th e lea di s i nth e dus t or soil , mos t o f th e mode l i s th e sam e regardles s o f ho w th e lea dgo t int o th e dust . I thin ksom e dat a o nrelationship s fro m othe r studie s ca nb e usefu l i nth e mode l tp o exten dth e rang e o f it . W e hav e don e tha t by applyin gou r mode l t o dat a fro m

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.8 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 Cincinnat i an d

- fi |.

. . i „ i.

. s 1 o p e s , b t.ttth e n i o d e 1 • . p p 1 - : ' ve rywell

. Vo u ge td i ffe re r

tt s t: i " ; 1 work?.- : tha tthe ? mode l fro m th e lea d ari d th e surfac e an d th e soi l int' O th e dus ti n th e hom e o n th e ch :i

. lei' s hands , th i e n b 1 o o d- 1 e a d

.

S' O we : probabl ycoul d us e othe rdat a i n her e o n tha tpiortio n o fth e pathwa ybecaus e th e lea d fro m th e soi l coul d b e fro m 3 0 years ; io factivit ypo fth e mil l o rth e mine , o ri tcoul d be

? fro m 3 0 year s o r.1.00 year s o fpain t ci e? po s i ti o n , au tomo b i 1 e exhaus tove rth e p ats tseve r al decades . Th i e re i s s o m e p ro b 1 e ? m wi thi d i ffe

? re ? n c e s i n th e availabilit yo fth e lea d i n th e differen tforms , bu tw e thin k p roba b 1 ymo re d.a ta c o u 1 d b e u s e d i n th e m o deling .

I thin k

ther e is ; a

majo rimpac tpo n wha ti s goin g t o happe n o n soil-lea d criteri a fo rclean-up . I thin k tha t i s th e ultimat e are a wher e w e air e goin g t o hav e a n impac t becaus e th e exposure s directl yfro m th e ai rare no ttha t grea* tnow . I ti s th e pas tai rexposure s wher e th e healt h effect s ar e occuring .

DR . MUSHAK : Wha ti fyo u ar e d'Oin g a befor e an d after ? DR . CLARK : Bu ti ti s wha thappene d i n th e past , i n term s o fth e air , wher e mos to fth e healt h effect s are occurring . I ti s residual s o fforme rair-lea d level s >o r1 eat d 

### EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.9 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 f romoth

ie ? rs oi. irce ? s W e hav e ameasur e tha tw e prefe ro n S'O : I s a surfac e scraping . Som e folk s thin k it i s jus t a horrible ?

me t h i " 0 d s c i e n t i f i c a 1 1 y , bu t i t wo r k s .

1 1 i s a s c r a p i ng o f f a h i a r d- p a c k e ds u r f a c e ? o r paved ' area. Tha t i s wher e th e chil d ha s acces s now .

I t i s no wd'ow

n 1 o r 2 inches . Tha t coul d b e importan t i n th e lion g term , I agree ; bu t th e curren t exposur e i s wha t i s o nth e surface .

W e hav e ha d a har d tim e convincin g Ro bEl i a s t o le t u s use ? tha t i nadditio nt o th e soil . W e ar e goin g t o d o ou r soi l cores , th e to p couple—th e to p 2-1/ 2 centimeters , the n1 5 centimeters—but , also , w e are goin g t o us e a surfac e scraping , whic hca nb e use d bot hfo r hard-packe d o r an ykin d o f soi l becaus e th e chil d stil l i s io n th e t'o

p an d th e to p i s wher e th e highe r level s are .

DR . CHISOLM : Fro myou r poin t o f view , a s I understan d it , i f yo u are thinkin g i nterm s o f th e l>on g rang e an d i f yo u kee p scrapin g i t of f an d yo u are borin g int" 0 a laye r wher e i t doe s mo t chang e fo r Xsomometers , yo u woul d no t b e placin g quit e s o muc hemphasi s o njus t th e surfac e scraping , I woul d no t think .

I f yo u com e bac k an d scrap e 1 0 year s fro m no wyo u woul dge t th e sam e thing , I think .

MR . HAINES : Thi s i s par t o f th e dilemm a o f

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.9 1 f

)

)

)•• 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 ' l -

r\

findin g wha t i s accessible . A s tha t penetrate? ? down , dioe? s i t really , i n Tact , sta ythere':- '

I thin k i n situation s i t ma ysta yi n place? . I n a dir t schoo l yar d i t probabl ywil l no t sta yi n plac e becaus e t ! J e c I-

i i I dr e

? nwi 1 1 c o nt i nuall y c hur n i t u p a g a i i n . T he? , qu o t e? , a c c e ? ssibil.i t yp r o b1 e m t ha t I t hi nk w e air e dealin g wit hi s wha t trul yi s accessibl e o r not .

DR . CHISOLM : Yo u hav e t o thin k 1 ongit u dinal 1 y , I thi nk . DR . McLAMB : Yes , tha t i s wha t I mean . It wil l vary . CHAIRMAN LARSON : Allan ? DR . MARCUS : Onthi s accessibility , I thin kfio r perhap s ris kassessmen t purpiose s a conservativ e approac h regard s th e sioil i nth e core , a t leas t for a few centimeters , a s accessible , a potentia l reservoi r po f lea dtha t ca nb e brough t t o th e surface .

A lo t o f pe^opl e bot hi nrura l andurba narea s kee p bi gdogs . The y

di gholes , ou r childre ndi ghole s i nth e yard . Peopl e pu t i ncabl e TV .

Ther e ar e a lo t o f thing s tha t woul dmak e soil s i n habitation s accessibl e t o a dept ho f a t leas t a few centimeters . Thi s i s th e reaso nwhy th e mos t conservativ e approac hwoul dregar deve nthos e sub-surfac e reservoir s a s potentiall y

mobile . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4 -'<'

rM>i: 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 DR . CHISOLM : A s on e measurement , no t a s th e tota l

r ne a s ur e me nt .

DR . MARCUS : I t i s jus t on e measure , an d thes e have ? differen t purpiose?s .

I f yo u ar e tr yi

. n g t o

1 oo k a t c u

r r e n t b] o oci •

- lea d s , th e immediately-accessibl e par t i s th e par t righ t ther e a t th e surface . I f yo u ar e lookin g ahea d toward s ho wthi s o r an yothe r mode l woul d be? use d fo r clean-up , I thin k yo u woul d hav e t o regar d th e potentia l accessibilit yo f th e sub-surfac e soi1 s a s wel1 .

A s I suspec t thi s o r relate d model s wil l b e use d fo r ris k assessmen t purposes , thos e differeance s i npurpose ? d> o hav e t o b e clarified . Th e generi c relationship s tha t wer e develope d ma ynee d t o b e refine d fo r particula r purpose s fo r othe r applications .

A s yo u say , w e ar e lookin g fo r area s primaril y aroun d poin t source s wher e ther e ha s bee na nhistoricall y hig hdeposition . Othe r purpose s wil l probabl yrequir e othe r refinements .

Tha t i s al l I ca nsay . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : I hav e a question . Th e othe r pathwa ywhic hyo u mentione d a s include d i nyou r model , o nwhic hI wa s no t clear , wa s th e soil-to

hous e dus t route . Yo u ha d a ter mi n you r regressio nfo r soil , bu t tha t wa s a tota l soi l sampl e rathe r tha na surfac e

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 soi 1 number . 2 MR . COHEN : Tha t wa s surface . 3 Th e measurement s wer e derive dfro moutdoo r s>o i 1 . 4 DR . CLARK : On e o f th e tables , I think , wa s stree t 5 dir t an dsoi1 . 6 MR . COHEN : Yes . 7 I t i s reall ysurface-to-surfac e layer s tha t ma yb e 8 1 , 2 , o r 3 cen t i me t e r s , no t goin g an yfa r the?! " tha nthat . 9 CHAIRMAN LARSON : I s tha t th e sam e surfac e tha t 1 0 yo uwe? r e re ferrin gt o ' ? 1 1 DR . CLARK : Well , no t really . 12 Actually , ou r surfac ei s reall y wha t w eca nscrap e 1 3 of f wit haspatul ao nahar dpack . I t i s surprising : yo uca n 14 ge? t areall y quantitativ emeasur ethere . Yo udon' t di g dow n 1 5 in . 1 6 Mos t soil s wher e childre nar e are no t loose . Yo u 1 7 ar e no t goin gt o fin dman y schoo l playground s wher e i t i s 1 8 lik e a garden . I t jus t i s not . 1 9 Th e hous e dus t i s alsp oa critica l component . I t 2 0 ca nb e tracke di nb y childre no r pets , b e brough t i nb y wind , 21 whatever . I t doe s no t hav e t o b e tha t child , i t ca nb e a n 2 2 adult . 2 3 Bu t th e pathwa y appear s t o b e ver y clearl y

fro m 2 4 th e outsid e surface , insid e surface , t o th e hand . Regardles s 2 5 o f ho w

i t go t o nth e outsid e surface , tha t i s almos t

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 availability . 0 H AI RMANL.. . ARSON : 1 am t r yi ng t o ge t a s e ns e a s t o wha t exten t doe s a relativel yrapi d chang e i n a n ai r leve l ref ' 1ec t o n you r compartments .

D R . C L A RK : P r o babl yve r yI i 11 1 e , de pe n di n qL Apon . I f we ? w e r e c

i > o i ng t hi s 3

0 years a g o , i t w

o u 1 d b e d i f f e r e nt ; bu t no t now .

Yo u woul d no t m e a? ? ur e i t i n (mos t cases . I n an y urba narea

yo u woul d no t measur e it , I don' t thin k becaus e t h i e r e s e r vo i r i s s o t r e r ne ndo u s . M R . HAINES : Wha t we ? are reall y

talkin gabou t i s wha t i s a reasonabl e approximation : Tim' s questio no f ho w muc ho f t h i s is - 1 ai d -down , quot e , soi1-1ea dtha t ma y b e tracke d i nb yth e pet s an d children ; ho w muc ho f i t i s interio r dus t relate d t o contemporar ydepositio nand , b y "contemporary" , a t leas t durin gtha t perio do f time .

1 gues s w e are

takin gth e approach , absen t anybod y partitionin g tha t out , apportionin g it , tha t th e dus t measuremen t insid e i s fairl y contemporaneousl y relate dt o th e air-qualit y

level . S o w e fee l tha t i s a reasonabl e assumptio ntha t a s yo ubrin gdownair-lea dlevel s tha t dus t wil l mov e wit hi t i n a simultaneou s fashion .

DR . CLARK : W e hav e seen , I think , som e remarkabl e decrease s i nth e pas t 3 or 1 0 year s i nou r surfac e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4

# ^J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 

### J measurement s insid e an d outside ? th e home . Ther e i s a definit e lowerin g tha t ha s t o b e associate d wit hsomethin g i n th e ai r o r outside .

Now , it i s goin g t o tai l off . I t i s tailin g of f

no w . 1 1 i s ha r d e ? r t o s e

? e ? a n ymo r e

? c ha i n g e s . Ther e i s a 5 0 percen t i nalmos t al l o f ou r areas? whethe r i t i s i nth e publi c housin garea s o r i n the ? olde r housin g areas . S> o somethin g i s happenin g beside s change s i n th e house . MR . COHEN : Ar e thos e dat a summarized ?

DR . CLARK : No , the y are not . Well , the y

ar e i nsom e reports . W e don' t hav e the m publishe dyet .

MR . COHEN : Okay . DR . CLARK : W e are seein gth e declin e inblood lead s andal l o f ou r pothe r measures . MR . HAINES : Ca nw e compar e tha t t o reduction s i n gasolin e lead ?

DR . CLARK : Yo ucould , sure . I t i s pa r a l 1 e l i n g th e chang e i nth e lea dadditive s usage . Tha t i s th e pas t 7 year s or so .

DR . CHISOLM : Ar e the y tailin gof f towar dth e soi l c on e en t r a t i ons ?

DR . CLARK : Oh , the y ar e levelin goff . Th e decreas e ha s bee nles s i nth e pas t yea r or so . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.9 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 DR . vo n LINDERN : Ar e an yo f thos e site s nea r th e s e p o

i n t s o u r c e s' ? DR . CLARK : No . Mayb e siome ver ysmal l points , bu t nothin g major . W e hav e som e lea d industries .

Ayea r an d a

hal f ago , w e ha d a smal l foundr y .. . - ; t h abou t 10 0 employee s tha t ha d almos t ever ywiorke r wit h clinica l lea d p'Oi son i ng .

The ywer e makin g poo r man' s peuter : th e ol d 9 2 p e? r c e? n t 1 ea d peu t e?

r . 0 ne

? ' 0 f t h

i e 1 o c a 1 i n

d ustrie s de c i d e? d thi s was ; a nic e gif t t o giv e thei r employee s atn dretiree s a t C h r i s t ma s t ime .

S o th e order s fro m thi s foundr y

increase d50-fold . The y ha d mo control s i nth e plant , n o showers , andpeopl e carrie denormou s amount s o f lead . Peopl e are stil l bein g affecte dby

that . Ther e ar e som e adult s wh o are actuall y

goin gupi n blood-lea dafte r a year anda half , jus t a very majo r source . Tha t wa s i na suburb . I didn' t hav e muc himpac t onth e cit y i tself . DR . MUSHAK : Yo uare lookin ga t th e children , too ? DF: . CLARK : Nobod y ha s concertedl y becaus e i t i s al l over

th e place . DR . MUSHAK : The y ar e a perfec t target . DR . CLARK : Th e healt hdepartmen t wa s lookin ga t a few , doin gsom e screening , andw e hav e screene dandteste d

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4mm'-iVC-.- "V;S%~- : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 som e outsid e o f measurement?? .

DR . MUSHAK : Judgin g fro mth e lac k o f occupationa l hygiene , I woul d sa ytha t th e home s o f thes e worker s woul d b e mos t affected .

DR . CLARK : Oh , yes . Ther e wer e som e childre n wh o wer e affected . On e mothe r i n particular , I know , wa s pregnan t workin g a t th e foundr yfo r th e whol e pregnancy . Th e chil di s i nth e SO s o r SO s an d ha s develope d menta l problems .

Thi s wa s a perso n livin g i na mobil e hom e 5 0 miles ; i nth e country .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : I hav e m y Chairman' s ha t onher e lookin gat th e agenda . Maybe ? we ca nge t th e discussio n starte di nful l gea r agai nafte r lunch . Perhap s yo uca nhol d you r comment s unti l them .

I f w e brea kfio

r lunc hmow

andretur nat 1:30 , tha t wil l giv e u s anhou r t o complet e ou r discussio nher e an dthe n hav e a chanc e t o hea r abou t th e cas e stud y applications . Okay . Than kyou . CAt12:3 0 p.m. , th e meetin g recesse d t o reconven e a t2:0 4 p.m. , thi s sam e day

. 3

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S :301 ) 565-006 4•?# " 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 AFTERNOO NSESSIO N

CHAIRMA NLARSON : Wh ydon' t w e reconvene . I thin k

w e are movin g alon g adequatel ystil l tryin g t o sta yo ntarge t fpo r 4:00 . U! e wil l pic k up wher e w e lef t of f wit hadditiona l comment s o nth e genera l 'document .

D r . Raib

i now i tz ? DR . RABINOWITZ : M yfortun e cooki e sai d tha t "I f yo uea t dirt , yo u shoul d ea t clea ndirt. "

[Laughte r 1 Th e documen t i s commendab1e . 11 • i s a difficul t tas kandI thin kth e author s di da s wel l a s the y coul dwit h th e gap s i nth e information .

I gues s tha t i s i t b y wa y o f genera l comment . Jus t havin gth e discussio nno w i s helpfu l t o me t o kindo f se e wher e thi s i s going . Tha t i s on e thin gI misse d i nreadin gi t throug hth e firs t time : Why are we doin gthes e differen t models , andwha t i s th e purpos e o f al l this ?

I a m sur e th e nex t draf t wil l hav e tha t al l take n car e of . CHAIRMAN LARSON : I thin kw e hav e anopportunity , perhaps , t o ge t a fina l se t o f comment s afte r w e hea r th e late r presentation s thi s afternoon . I a m sur e yo uwil l hav e som e othe r reaction s t o shar e afte r yo uhea r those .

Dr . Mushak ? DR . MUSHAK : I though t th e repor t andth e whol e

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.9 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 ref ] e • : ts th i e g ro wt ! to fs •:•• p h i i s ti c

a ti o n i n h o wth e E n vi ro 1111 1 e i ' 1 1 a1 ! :: ' i " o te ? cti o n Agenc yi s g o : i n g a b o u ti ts b u s i n e s s . Abou t 1 1 year s ago , I sa t dow nwit ha grou p o f 0AQP S t ype? s t o t ak e a 1 oo k a t a r t i c u 1 a t i n g a s t a r t e g yf o r a n a i r - 11-.?a:'.c

j standard . Basicall yI gues s yo u ca n encapsulat e th e gis t o f i t i nabou t tw o paragraph?? : forgee t pag e afte r pag e o f rigmarole , jus t th e essenc e o f i t wa s tw o pa r agraphia .

Ha ve ? s o me ? t h i i ng >

o nf r e q u e nc y

di s t r i bution , 1 o o k a t s o ir t e t hi ng a b o u t e ? ve r y t hi nge xc e pt ai r an dge t a P BA lette r o f abou t 2 an d yo uge? t 1.5 .

W e hav e com e a lon gwa y sinc e then . Th e repor t ha s probabl y

take nth e parameter s a s far a s w e ca ng> o wit h them , bu t I thin kwe ough t no t t o bas hth e uncertaint y becaus e I thin ktha t i t ha s bee nsai db y publi c healt htype s al l th e tim e tha t ther e i s compellin gevidenc e an dthe nther e i s irrefutabl e evidence .

That t is , onc e evidenc e i s compellin gw e ough t no t t o insis t tha t i t b e irrefutabl e fro m a publi c healt h protectio nstance .

Thi s i s a stanc e whic hI thin kth e Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y is , bot hlegall y andmorally , mandate dt o practice . Also , I thin kneed s ar e bot hcompellin gand irrefutable . I thin ktha t a mode l lik e thi s i s a compellin g EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 need . Abo u t th e p o p u 1 a r i t yo f th e mo c i e 1 f o r c • t he r applicatio n —i.e. , a globa l o r generi c uptdk e bi . ok i ne t .1 . c mode l —I woul d Be e som e utilit yin , say , the-B e variou s cl e ups . I thin k th e clean-up s are a goo d wa yt. o tes t th e n.o c becaus e apparentl yi n Julian' s cas e i n Boston , an d i n Cincinnati , pre - an d post-blood-lead s ar e bein g collected .

I s t h i a t c o r r e c 1 ? DR . CHISOLM : That' s correct . DR . MUSHAK : S o yo ucoul dvalidat e th e model' s applicatio nwit hpre - andpost-blood-lead s t o se e how th e predictio nworked .

I woul dals o cautio ntha t i f on e i s t o us e a mode l for soi l lead—Jef f Cohe nandI spok e abou t thi s briefl y before—i f yo ud o somethin glik e a rathe r broa dtraversa l downa soi1-1ead/blood-1ea dslop e yo uma y b e jumpin gfro

m a non-linea r par t o f tha t model' s dominanc e t o a linear .

Yo umigh t wan t t o b e careful . A s I remembe r Ian' s curve s wit hth e competenc e limit s betwee nblood-lea dandsoi1-1ead , yo uge t extrem e curvalinearit y

above , say , abou t 4,00 0 ppm . Inothe r words , PPB s becom e quit e curvalinea r abov e abou t 4,00 0 pp m o f soil . S o on e ha s t o b e carefu l wha t rang e o f tha t hypothetica l mode l curv e yo uar e speakin gof .

I thin ki t i s probabl y a goo dmode l for lea di n

> EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 certai n othe r contexts . I don' t thin k it' s generi c mode l fo r fill-i n blan k Ameta l an d the nyo u ca nd o i t becaus e lead , u n f o r t u r i a t e1y , i s th e on1 ymode 1 tha t i s s t udie d wel l e n o u g h tha t I thin k yo u ca nd o a mode l an d bas e thi s on .

0 1 h i e r a pp 1 i c a t i o n s o f t he mo d e 1' ? I gu e s s we talke d briefl yove r lunc habou t th e prospec t o f pregnan t wome na t term : loo k a t newbor nblood-lea d modeling , som e hybri d o f Mike' s earl ymodelin g plu s th e KMIF' E variation . Tha t i s somethin gt o consider .

Or yo u coul dstic kwit hth e disaggregat e mode l a s yo uare

doin gnow , bu t I thin kther e i s some ? virtu e i ntryin g t o mode l newbor nbloods . Yo uge t a t leas t on e mor e d eve 1 opme nta i point .

I thin ktha t in-uter o exposur e modelin gi s probabl y

los t t o yo uunti l ther e are som e breakthrough s i n non-hazardou s in-viv o modelin go f sof t tissues . I don' t se e ho w t ha t c ou1 dwo r k .

Th e uncertaintie s hav e bee nconsidered . I thin k tha t 10 0 milligram s o f dust/soi l combine dintak e i s certainl y righteous . I don' t thin ktha t number s belo w thi s ar e reall y appropriate .

Ther e i s muc hscatte r i nth e dus t an dsoi l average , bu t I thin k10 0 is —

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : A s a mea nvalue ? DR . MUSHAK : A s a mea nvalue , understandin gtha t

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 3

. V 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 

### ther e p..; . r<* i i i '-.j'..'. i ;



### ' eco rea . ; ''-• £: va r oun u i c tha t aroun d i i s mea n the i e ar e dus k intakes , -soi l intake s wh : car : b e ouit e nuq e scal l tha t ther e wer e som e SGLIGJ . e ;/ s baH:;e

d o r minera l trac e element s tha t ha d gotte n level s abov e a gram . Whe t he i

" o r n o t t ho s e ar e o u 1 1 ye r typ e 1 e ve 1 s be c a u s e o f problems , I a mno t sure .

I woul dsa y

i f yo u loo k a t th e evidenc e i nth e aggregate , 10 0 i s no t to o ba d a number .

Tha t i s i t onthat . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Bob ? DR . ROWE : I don' t reall y hav e a lo t mor e t o sa y i nterm s o f al l th e comment s tha t hav e bee nwritte nandsai d her e i nterm s o f conductin ga rura l point-source-oriente d N A A Q S e xposu r e ass e ssme nt .

It seem s lik e tha t wil l b e fine . M y onl y commen t i s tha t inth e idea l o f idea l world s i t woul dsur e b e nic e t o kno w wha t eve na smal l chang e i nai r woul dd o i nth e urba n area s becaus e w e woul dprobabl y ultimatel y

hav e mor e peopl e affected . It ma y no t b e th e mos t cost-effectiv e strategy , bu t tha t woul db e nice . W e are goin gt o hav e jus t smal l peopl e her e compare dt o th e urban-are a problem , bu t tha t ha s bee na previously-agreed-t o decisio nandI don' t hav e an y proble m

wit htha t decision . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER ! (301 ) 565-006 4. —

••.PP-SSKT . •

'''•.&..'

. ' ;

'.'' ' . . '..''"'' 

# "i 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 S o , no , I thin k w e av e o n track . 10 2

CHAIRMA NLARSON : I hav e a c ou p 1. e c ommen t s myse l f . J Lis t fro msomebod yviewin g thi s mode l fro m afar , i t woul db e nic e t o se e th e prediction s fro mth e facilit y 11- 1 a t yo u a r e c o nc e r ne dwi L ho f t he c o nc e nt r a t i o ns o f t ho s e environmenta l variable s tha t a.re importan t i nth e ultimat e dete r mina t i o no f b 1 ood-1ead .

Specificall yi f yo u hav e a nobserve d gradien t withi na fe

w mile s o f a poin t source? , ca nyo uals o predic t wit hyou r mode l th e RUN C typ e o f thinking , th e air-lea dand dust-lea dnow

value s tha t yo use e inth e mean , perhaps , tha t yo uar e usin gultimatel y i nth e prediction . Th e reaso nI sa y tha t i s becaus e i t become s easie r for th e not—so—fam i 1ia r reade r t o distinguis hbetwee nyou r model' s abilit y

t o predic t uptak e versu s exposure . Yo ucoul d potentiall y

b e righ t fo

r th e wron greasons . I don' t thin kyo uare, bu t i t woul db e nic e t o hav e som e o f thos e intermediat e mea nvalue s or media nvalue s i nther e a s well . I thin kw e hear dsom e o f tha t thi s mornin g i nterm s o f thos e particula r issues .

Tha t i s on e genera l comment . I agree , though , tha t yo uhav e com e a lon gwa y i n thi s particula r proces s an dtha t th e observatio no f a gradien t blood-lead , eve ni na limite darea , andth e abilit y t o forecas t i t wit hsome , a t least , gradien t or relativ e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4 P. 4

\-P. 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 a i l .i. • I»i—" -• " c'S':::. , 1 • ; j..• . .• 1 .p . •_

• y, Wha t I amheavin g i s tha t w e ar e onl ytalkin g her e abou t forecastin g mea nvalues . I ge t som e sens e tha t i f w e playe d aroun d wit hsoi1—1ea d average s o r whatever , w e ma yo r ma yno t b e a s goo d i n agreemen t wit hthes e cas e studie s a s yo u se e i n thi s particula r report .

But , still , som e notio n -and I don' t know ho wyo u d o i t —o f w h e th e r or n o t y ou r predicte d v ers u s y ou r o bserve d mea nvalue s a t differen t point s awa y fro m th e sourc e are di f f e r e nt f r o

me a c: hot he r . I don' t hav e a g'-*"--. dfeelin gfo r ho w t oapproac h t h a t sinc e y o uh a v e a nrang e o f uncertaintie s an dno t a 1o t

o f informatio no nth e shap e o f th e point s i nbetwee nan dth e range , bu t i t woul db e nic e t o mak e anattemp t t o see? , eve n i f th e mode l andth e predicte dobserve dlea dgradient s ar e no t quit e th e same , tha t ther e i s som e overla pther e give n al l th e uncertainties .

Jus t sor t o f steppin gback , i t woul db e nic e t o se e th e intermediat e predictio nof , now , I gues s w e ar e talkin gdust-lea dandair-1ea di nth e mean , andthe nth e resultin gforecast s for blood-lea dan dthei r uncertaintie s compare dt o th e mea nobserve dvalues , whic htake s u s t o th e nex t point . Give nsom e abilit y t o predic t tha t mea ngradient , i s i t reasonabl e t o tak e th e nex t step , whic hi s the nt o tak e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 t h

i a t m e a n , o r me a np r e d i •: : t i o n , t r o mt he mo d e 1 a • • i d a p p 1 ya geometri c standar d deviatio n a s i s propose d her e ; n tern s •:.•' ( forecastin g th e numbe r o f children , i n thi s case , tha t a , e i n exces s o f Xt

i 1 o o d ? I woui d b e intereste d i nheari n g o11 1 e r Commi t te e members ' reaction s t o tha t particula r approac ht o thi s variabilit yissue . W e hav e hear d a lo t abou t al l th e potentia l source s o f variabilit yi n th e actua l data .

DR . MAHAFFEY : I thin k wha t i s puzzlin g t o m e i s a c o n c e r na bo u t w hethe r or no t t hes e geo m e t r i c standar d deviation s woul dappl y at extremel y

low blood-leads , talkin g perhap s blood-lead s unde r 10 .

Ther e i s a littl e bi t o f informatio nsuggestin g tha t yo uhavi e a differen t sl'Dp e i nth e relationshi p betwee n environmenta l lea dexposur e andindicator s o f blood-lead , an d tha t tha t slop e wil l diffe r dependin gonth e leve l o f exposure . S o whethe r or no t yo uhav e tha t sam e standar d geometri c deviatio nacros s a wid e rang e I thin ki s questionable .

Tha t i s jus t anopinion . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Woul dyo uexpec t i t t o b e harde r t o characteriz e wha t th e variabilit y is ? I s i t tha t give n th e perfec t abilit y t o characteriz e i t yo uwoul dexpec t i t t o b e differen t i nterm s o f measurement , jus t approachin g EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-005 4P. 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 0 measu rement'limits ?

I don' texpec ta n answer . I jus tthro wtha tout . I ti s strikin g t o me . I -don' tkno wenoi.ig h abou t th e NHANE S dat a set , b u t1 a m rea d i n g i n h ev e tha tacr oss th k i C P 1 e s p e ctru m o fb 1 o o d - 1 e a d 1

. e ve I s i n tha ts u rve yth i n g * see m t o b e log-normall ydistribute d wit h a reasonab l constan tgeometricall ystandar d deviation

.

DR

. M A H A F F EY : W e d i d no th a ve

su ch 1 o w1 e a d s i n that

. 

### CHAIRMA NLARSON : Tha t i s right . DR . MUSHAK : Tha t i s a ke ypoint : tha t th e lo wend o f th e tabl e b

y139 0 i n th e rura l cas e add s mayb e .2 5 or . 5 . pie r cubi c meter . Yo u woul d stil l b e lookin g a t something .

I thin k th e analytica l varyin g proble mremain s severe . Okay . Ther e i s n o reaso n t o expec t tha t goo d lead s woul d perfor manybette r tha nthe ycan ; the yalreadyare . And I don' t thin k tha t poo r lead s are goin g t o ge t religio n anytim e soon .

Yo u hav e th e analytica l facto r tha t i s drive n b y tha t particula r configuration .

I thin k ther e i s somethin g abou t th e pharmacokinetic s o f lea d tha t ma ycompe l a log-norma l distributio n wit ha lingerin g tai l upwards . Yo u se e this , fo r example .

Yo u loo k a t food stuffs , anythin g tha t ha s a EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 8



## ~J 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 b i ologicall y— i n teract i v e d i s tr: i bi.i ti o n . Th e con e e r c- tJ

. p'.JL|'"" I ;'...p riiii : ktr , part s pe ; i Ili Io n Whe n yo u loo k a t air , wha t kin d o f distributio n w ouI d v o u se e i n

::r!AIRMA

NLARSON t i s J . o qnov(da

i fo r th e mos t pa r Th e vaviane e nproportio n t o th e mea nIc-jve? ! . ,

DR . MUSHAK ; I mea na t th e leve l w e ar e talkin g about , . 1 , . 2 .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : I thin kat an y level . I thin k yo uca nslic e i t u phow yo u'wan

t an d i t come s ou t t o b e lo g— normal , perhap s for a differen t se t o f reasons .

MR . HAINES : I t coul dbe . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : I woul dexpec t i f yo uhav e a log-no r m

a 1 dis t r i but i ont ha t y o uwoui de xpe c t t h e abso1 ut e varianc e t o shrin ka s th e mea ngoe s downi na proportiona l way . I t i s har dt o thin ki nlo gterms . I gues s w e ca n se e i nlo gterms .

DR . MARCUS : Actually , I thin ktha t i s it . Th e variabilit y

i nabsolut e term s doe s ge t smalle r a s th e level s ge t smaller , bu t i nrelativ e term s for a lo t o f differen t population s ove r a very wid e rang e o f mea nlevel s o f blood lead . I f yo udon' t lik e talkin gabou t geometri c standar d

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P. 9

•-^SA.:.

• • -XT.:

.

i.-*S*• 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 16 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 10 7 deviations , yo u ca n conver t i t int o a coefficien t o f

vav i a t ion , w hic hi tii e a n r. r a t J. o L. I i : t anda vd dev i a t i o nt o a

•ar i abilit yf o

a vcr-. vi e t yo f s o u r c e s , n o o

n e I t i s a familia r percentag e measur e o bloo d —lead s wher e yp"j u h&-

wk i i c h i i s r e a 1 1 yo ve r w h e 1 mi ng . Thi s i s th e situatio n w e ar e lookin g a t mor e an d mor e i n urba n an d rura l area s wher e lea d i n die t contribute s

s o m e t l-

i in g a ndwa t e r -••

• 1 e a dc o nt r i but e s s o me t hi ng an dt he nt h i e ambien t air , dus t an d soi l level s als o contribut e thei r bi t s o non e o f them

i s totall y

dominant . I f yo u hav e severa l contribution s t o blood-lead , the nyo uwoul db e runnin gint o variation s fro m on e individua l t o anothe r eve nwit halmos t exactl y th e sam e exposure , almos t th e sam e location : b e runnin gint o typical , variation s i n blood-lea dwhic hwoul db e plu s or minu s 4 0 percen t for GST s o f 1.4 2 s c ale db ack .

35 , 4 0 percen t woul db e a typica l kindo f proportionat e variability . Thi s i s becaus e ther e i s a diversit y

o f sources . Yo uhav e biologica l variability . Peopl e diffe r i n th e amoun t tha t the y ca nabsor bthroug hth e duct , throug h th e lungs , wher e the y hav e a highe r ventilatio nrate . Ther e are lot s o f difference s fro m on e individua l t o another , biologica l differences , the ndifference s i nexposure .

Som e peopl e ea t mor e dir t tha nothe r peopl e and

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 i i j.

. i.......

. _. . p-. .

•:-J. 1 -p . '. - • ' I':•; ' •*_•? p- r•.

_L ' - 1 I*- • f

VI- 1 levels .

1 'D W1 eve lB„ v a viabi111v • but e t o tha t variabilit y ;ypica l measur e o f variabilit yseem s t o b e dow n t o fairl ylo w

ieve i s somethin g tha t doe s no t see mt o shrin k a t A s mentioned , tha t i s th e analytica l

Yo ucanno t knoc ktha t downlowe r tha na coupl e o f microgram s pe r deciliter .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Tha t i s a constan t onto po f thing s tha t are continuall y shrinking . DR . MARCUS : Ther e hav e no t bee nany effort s mad e i nthi s inciden t t o correc t thes e GSD s for th e variation s i n th e analytica l variabilit y becaus e any

standard s tha t ar e se t are goin gt o hav e t o tak e th e fac t tha t thi s i s a built-i n measurement .

Complianc e test s hav e tha t analytica l variabilit y buil t in . S o we di dno t mak e any adjustment s for analytica l variabilit y

i nthes e calculations . DR . MUSHAK : Bu t th e earl y NHANE S analyse s did . MR . COHEN : Yes . I gues s th e decisio nwa s no t t o tak e tha t int o accoun t becaus e o f al l th e healt hstudie s the y wer e goin gt o b e relatin gto .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : I f w e are uncertain , collectivel y

or individually , abou t wha t th e geometri c EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 1

'-yrj...,-.^ "fc.Sptfpi. - . y^ki't. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 c : iiI!. . • V.p . . I( i ite v standar d deviation s woul d d o aroun d thes e site:

- ir th e source , i s ther e an ysens e o f i f the ywoul d b e g\ les s tha nthe ycurrentl yare?

'O r ca nw e no t sa ythat ? DR . RABINOWITZ : W e coul d jus t ventur e a guess . I ge t th e sens e tha t containe d withi nthi s log

norma l distributio no f blood-lead s tha t w e se e ar e reall y man ysub-populations . Eve ni f yo u plo t the mal l togethe r an d addthe m

up , i t al l look s lik e som e 1 o g -norma l straigh t line? . Ther e are reall y man y differen t populations . By changin gexposur e to , say , airborn e lea dandleavin gthes e othe r factor s constant , many peopl e wil l decreas e thei r lea d level s andblood-leads . Everybod y wil l tak e a ste pt o th e left , a s i t were .

Bu t man y

people , som e s ub- popu 1 a t i ons , a r e s t i1 1 gettin glea dfrom som e othe r non-ai r source . Thes e peopl e wil l no t trac kwher e th e other s track .

Yo uare goin gt o se e a broadenin go f th e distribution . Th e magnitud e o f tha t broadening ? Gee , I don' t know , bu t i t woul db e surprise di f everybod y uniforml y kep t th e sam e varianc e anddecrease dth e mean .

I s i t possibl e t o thin ki nterm s o f keepin gth e varianc e a s larg e a s i t i s andjus t decreasin gth e mea na s on e extrem e se t o f possibilities ? The nyo uwin dupwit h havin gsom e tail , som e high-exposur e tai l which , eve nthoug h jry EXECUTIV E COUR TREPORTER S 

### (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 .) I 1 0

yo u hav e zer o lea d i nth e air , yo u are stil l goin g t o hav e thes e childre ngettin g lea d fro mothe r sources, .

DR . MUSHAK : Bu t the nw e are gettin g bac k t o thi s pain t an d non—paint , an d rural . W e wen t throug htha t onc e be 1 o ve . Presumabl yyo u ar e goin g t o b e fairl ywel l ri d o f pain t exposures , o r eve n th e idiosyncrati c exposure , cultura l exposure . S o tha t shoul db e minimum .

DR . MARCUS : Thes e are al l plausibl e way s o f dealin gwit hit , bu t shor t o f actuall y lookin ga t a situatio n i nwhic hther e i s goin gt o b e a substantia l chang e i n exposur e andlookin gat childre nbefor e andafter , and trackin gwhic hone s ha dthei r blood-lead s dro pa lo t and whic hernes di dno t hav e thei r blood-lead s drop s s o muc h becaLis e the y

wer e no t gettin gi t fro m tha t kindo f exposur e anyway . Shor t o f actuall y doin gthes e studie s wher e yo ud o manipulat e th e lea dexposur e i nth e environment , I don' i thin kw e have , quote , th e right , endquote , answe r t o this .

S o th e attempt , a t least , t o estimat e th e fractio n o f high-lea dchildre nb y assumin ga constan t proportiona l variabilit y

seeme dlik e a reasonabl e approach . W e ar e certainl y

agreeabl e t o lookin ga t othe r alternative s tha t are suqqested . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4

# ^J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 J

. -A, -.. - ! ! \ w e n a n upta l biokinet : mode.i . whic n pr e means , ari d the nw e ha v a n o th e rn i o d e 1 w ! i i ch pre d i cts th * p o p L I 1 a ti o n tha ts h o i

. i 1 ci n • :

.' '- •L1 1 ? '..' . o n fL I s e d wi th th e u p tak e b1ok i ntti cm o de1

.

S o w e coul d mak e tha t distinction . I thin k i t woul d b e usefu.l , a t least , fo r peopl e t o kno wtha t the yar e reall ytw o differen t mo s : o rnin g fro mtw o differen t p j laces . MR . COHEN : Ther e wa s on e dat a set , th e NHANE S II , wher e w e di dhav e th e opportunit y t o pla y

wit hth e shap e o f th e distribution . Joe l Schwart z looke da t differen t cut-off s andmove dchildre ndown , movin gdownth e mea nassociate dwit h tha t fro

m 40 , let' s say , or 3 0 microgram s pe r deciliter . Inothe r words , h e woul dtak e al l th e childre n abov e 4 0 andmov e them downsomewher e else? . W e foundtha t th e GS Dreall y di dno t chang e significantl y

whe nh e di dthat . DR . RABINOWITZ : Ho w di dh e mov e the m down ? Yo u mea ndownby

selectin gsub-group s wit hlowe r exposure ? MR . COHEN : H e too kth e sub-groups•wit hhighe r exposur e andtaile dthem . I t reall y boile ddownt o th e fac t ther e jus t wer e no t tha t man y childre nupthere ; bu t i f yo u us e 4 0 a s a cut-off , I thin kth e GS Dchange dfro m 1.4 3 t o 1.42 . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4: ¥&yX.Xr

c. .

£"*-*2*r,-£pi.v. . Y:~H 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 DR

. RABINOWITZ ; very smal l difference

. MR

. COHEN : Yes

. I thin k w e talke d abou t doin g tha t kin d o f thin g wit hth e Eas t Helen a dat a t o se e wha t effec t i t woul d hav e o n th e overal l GSD , anticipatin g tha t a lo t o f thes e childre n woul d hav e lowe r exposure s i n th e future .

W e have- ? no t done ? that , bu t w e could . DR . RABINOWITZ : Ar e yo u satisfie d wit hth e biokineti c modelin g tha t th e variabilit ytha t yo u se e wit h al l thes e differen t term s find s it s wa yint o the ? en d o f th e model ? Thi s mode l i s use dt o generat e distributio na t th e endan d i t i s base d o ncertai no f thes e variables . Eac ho f thes e variable s ha s uncertaintie s associate dwit hit .

Whe nyo upu t them al l togethe r i nth e model , al l thes e Lincertaintie s shoul daddor compoun di nsom e way . I don' t know

i f yo ufee l tha t tha t i s bein gtake nint o account . DR . MARCUS : Wha t yo ucoul dd o i nth e extremel y idea l univers e i s tak e al l thes e 2 0 o r s o inpu t parameters , conven e a pane l o f expert s t o tel l yo uwha t th e distributio n o f parameter s i s i nth e biologica l o r exposur e population , andd o humongou s simulatio nwit ha distributio no f every on e o f thos e parameters .

Thi s woul dgiv e yo usom e wa y o f propogatin gth e uncertaintie s throug hth e model . Thi s i s no t a feasibl e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 p ro g ra m ri gh ta tth e m o m e n t , I thi n k We ! i a ve d o

r

L - 11'.: ? U ;:: l r'i d I' l i !••: ' tlr? C •!--

. ;- . + Jon e sensitivit yanalyse s wit h a coupl e o f

•> . prior i , thoi..iqh tt o b e th e n*ioss* t l CT :• V^ir l e se n s i t ive , i n c 1 u d i. n g t he a bs o r p t i o n va t e s , whi c hha d a c t L I all y som e ompivica l support . W e are goin g t o loo k a t th e Las t Heiena . Bu t shor t o f a systemati c exploratio n o f th e sensitivit yo f th e mode l t o plausibl e distribution s ove r al l thos e inputs , i n man ycase s w e woul d b e dealin g wit ha n almos t non-existen t empirica l dat a bas e t o d o that .

Yes , I woul d lik e t o b e abl e t o d o tha t an d the n say , "I f yo u propogat e al l thes e uncertaintie s through , her e i s th e rea l uncertainty" ; bu t i t look s lik e a lo t o f wor k righ t now . I suspec t w e woul dendu p creatin ga versio no f th e centra l limi t ther e whic hsay s tha t i f yo u ad d u pa bunc h o f things , i t turn s ou t t o b e abou t normall y distributed . Her e w e are

goin gt o endu pwit hsor t o f multiplicativ e factor s becaus e uncertaint y i nabsorptio nrat e multiplie s t o uncertaint y

i nth e amoun t o f dir t tha t i s eate nwhic h multiplie s int o somethin gels e andyo uwil l en dupwit ha log-norma l distribution , prett y near , becaus e o f th e larg e numbe r o f thing s tha t multipl y eac hother . Yes , i t i s possible ; bu t I don' t thin ktha t w e ar e goin gt o hav e grossl y differen t result s eve ni f w e coul d

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 carry

ou t tha t progra marid i f we ? kne wwha t kind s o v uncertaintie s i n som e o f thes e inpu t parameter s w e woul d b e dealin g with .

'DR . RABINOWITZ : M yconcern , mayb e echoin g Dr „ Marcu s said , wa s tha t whe n yo u are al l done ? yo u don' t wan t t o hav e to o muc hfait htha t you r answe r i s finall yright; : tha t someho wyo u hav e t o hav e ai l th e caveat s and th e uncertaintie s i n th e fin a 1 resu11s .

I don' t kno who wyo u d o tha t carefully . DR . MARCUS : I thin k ou r concev n i s particula r wit hthos e wh o ar e mos t highl ya t risk ; an d tha t w e ar e no t goin g t o b e greatl yunderestimatin g th e high-ris k sub

population . Tha t i s wh yw e are .tendin g toward s th e us e o f a large r GS D tha ni nsom e studies .

DR . MUSHAK : Yes . MR . HAINES : Th e othe r poin t I wante d t o mak e i s ou r purpos e o f th e mode l i s t o loo k a t relativ e difference s betwee nalternativ e strategie s eventually . I am . tryin g t o sa yw e coul d b e of f i nth e absolut e number , bu t i f w e sho w th e delta s betwee nstandar d Aan d standar d B , eve nthoug hw e ma y b e low

i nbot hcase s o r to o hig hi nbot hcases , i t i s th e relativ e additiona l protectio non e alternativ e ha s ove r anothe r tha t i s wha t w e are seeking . I fee l tha t th e mode l behave s itsel f reasonabl y

> EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8

1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 well . W e ma yb e n o t c • u i t e f i n din g p vo o f : i no u r p r e c

l i c t i ve power , bu t i f w e ca n ge t a reasonabl e benchmar k an d hel p th e de c i s i on-make r decid e betwee n tw o alternative's , w e ma yb e somewhere . DR . RABINOWITZ : A s lon g a s peopl e don't , then , us e i t fo r somethin g else , i t wil l b e al l right. , Tha t i s a ha s a vd . MR . HAINES : W e w il l wo r r ya bou t mi s —a p p1 i ca t i o n o f mode1 s 1 ater .

[Laughter ] DR . vo nLINDERN : I ca ntel l yo uwha t ou r experienc e ha s bee nbac ki nth e day s whe ni t reall y use dt o rai nlea di nou r communit y andou r blood-lea dlevel s wer e 20 , 30 , 40 , SO , 10 0 andabove .

We sa w tha t standar ddeviatio ncollaps e somewher e downtowar d1.3 . I thin ktha t i s probabl y reflectiv e o f a biologica l andanalytica l variance .

Nowaday s w e se e i t pushe dbeyon d1.4 2 andi t i s up abou t 1. 5 now . I thin ktha t i s becaus e w e ar e dealin gwit h mor e tha non e pathwa y or exposur e route . Whe nyo uhav e tw o or thre e exposur e route s tha t ar e competing , tha t add s t o tha t variance .

I woul dexpect , a s w e ge t towar dlowe r blood-lea d level s whe ndifferen t route s ca nhav e mor e equa l influence , yo uar e goin gt o hav e t o g o t o a larger , number . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.1 8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 [Jr.

. , a r eg ue s s inq, s IJ . qh1 1 y ,Ju'•.. t 1 o c a r r yt hi s guess , s i n ce w e

ther , wkien yo u ar e qoin qt o pathway s wher e ther e i s no t suc ha clea r dominatio n o f on e ove r another , yo u ma yhav e s.TMim e vea l difference s i n th e bio

availabilit yo f th e differen t sources, .

Som e o f wha t w e se e a s a fairl yincreas e i nintak e 0 f b1 o o d--lead

- I a mt hi nki n go vt h e s t udie s w i t ht h e i nf an t s wher e ther e wa s wate r Lised fo r makin ginfan t formul a an di t 1 o o ke d1 i ke t he ? r e w a s a f a i r 1 y

r a pi di nc r e as e i nb1 o o d- 1 e a d— tha t ma y

b e £ige , i t ma y b e a differenc e i npreviou s bod y storie s o f lead . I t coul db e a lo t o f things .

I t coul db e bio-availability . I thin kwit hblood-lead s othe r circumstance s applyin gstandar ddeviation s obtaine dfro m othe r dat a set s i s somethin gtha t i s chanc y t o do . Ina wa y i t i s supportin g wha t IanandMik e hav e bee nsaying .

I a m no t sur e I a

m expressin gi t clearly . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Woul dyo ub e mor e comfortabl e wit ha rang e o f GSDs ?

I f yo uleav e the m withou t th e optio no f Mode l 2 , whic hi s thi s GS Dapplicatio nt o th e mean , the nthe y are bac k t o squar e zer o i nterm s o f predictin gth e level s o f thos e children . DR . vo nLINDERN : I thin ki t i s th e wa y t o d o it . Whe nyo use e ou r document , yo uwil l se e w e di di t tha t way , EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.19

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 too . [Laughte r I I DR . RABINOWITZ : Whic hwa s ar e yo u referrin g t o now ? DR . vo nLINDERN : I t is , bu t I a msur e everyon e her e i s awar e tha t tha t become s a very , very sensitiv e parameter , though , whe nyo u ar e talkin g abou t th e percentag e o f childre n tha t excee d th e blood-lea d leve l an d w e are talkin g abou t protectin g i nth e 2 , 3 , 5 percen t leve l o r whateve r the y

select . Tha t i s animportan t value . I thin kw e shoul d recogniz e that .

DR . MARCUS : Mayb e I shoul daddres s thi s t o th e Committe e a s a whole .

Woul dyou , then , t o compar e th e sensitivit y o f thes e estimate s t o a populatio nwit hmor e variabilit y t o se e whethe r or no t tha t make s a difference ?

DR . vo nLINDERN : Certainly . I thin kprobabl y th e wa y t o expres s tha t i s i npercen t exceedances , wher e w e en d up . DR . MARCUS : Okay .

DR . vo nLINDERN : Th e questio ni s wha t are th e blood-lea dvalues ; bu t tha t i s no t her e t o b e decided .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : I gues s w e ar e sayin gtha t tha t i s a nimportan t parameter . It shoul dno t b e defended , i f yo u 

# Ji EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 23 2 4 2 5 L

- r » l-rpp.

- uUie. i uptak ebiokineti c approach .

oul db edefended, , bu t i t i s i vi c

> L Is x yaver y sensitiv eparamete r i nth ewhol eresi.i lt . Ar ether ean y other * commeint s 'iro mth eLor nmi 1 1 et ? mefVioe vs [N o vespijiise

. ]

W eca nno w hea r

fro myo ufello w abou t tri ecas e

s l- L i U . Le MR

. COHEN : Okay

.

Befor e w e leav e this , befor e th e brea k Ia n talke d

a bo u t t yp i c a 1 s o i 1 i n g e s t i o n rat e s tha t t he ? yde r i ve

? d i n Bunke r H i 11 .

I gues s on e thin g tha t w e shoul d not e i n tha t populatio n i s ther e wa s a lon g histor yo f sever e lea d poisonin g problems . Ther e wa s a lo t o f publicit yan d a very aggressiv e interventio n progra mtha t ma yhav e resulte d i n a highe r consciousnes s abou t sanitary n habit s o n th e par t o f parents . I ten d t o no t us e th e typica l Bunke r Hil l chil d a s compare d t o th e quote/unquot e high-ris k cas e fo r extrapolatin g fro mth e mode l t o th e place s an d no t presum e tha t thes e othe r place s woul d hav e th e sam e kind s o f educatio no r publi c healt hawareness .

CHAIRMA NLARSON : I s thi s gettin g bac k t o th e issu e o f ho wman ymilligram s o f dir t w e ea t pe r day ?

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 Mr7 >!~*o \..$ LTr j • rr * - j .- ; i-,

j . • CHAIRMA NLARSON : I t seem s fe w i"iumber s ge1 1 i n qpasse d a r ••::>uri d . DR . MUSHAK : Thi s busines s parenta l a p p r e he ns :i . o n i nd r i vi ng do wn A , i : l. i 1111.. ' ir ; r kno wc>

f a case—i t ha s no t bee n writte n Li p i n an yforma l

wa yi n easter nPennsylvani a wher e afte r ther e h a cr i beer* , a lo t

o f communit ypublicit yth e parent s literall ychase d th e c hi 1 dr e

? ni nt o t h e i r o V J nh i o us es . It wa s tha t kin d o f cultur e t o begi nwith : blue

collar , verystringen t attentio n o nkids . Thos e kid s wer e literall y

harassed . Som e o f th e psychologica l problem s ma ybe- ? wors e tha nth e problem .

[Laughter ] Th e fac t remainin gi s I thin konc e yo u hav e a pervasiv e communit y awareness , parentally , o f th e problem s i n tha t issu e yo uar e goin gt o tur nupwit hles s andles s o f a problem . W e ca nse e i t anecdotall y i nth e Bunke r Hil l situation . S o i t ma y no t b e appropriate . Inothe r words , th e idea l cas e i s i f ther e wer e n o awarenes s andeverybod y wa s doin gth e sam e ol dthing , wha t woul db e th e average ?

DR . vo nLINDERN : Fo r thos e wh o wan t t o punis h yourselves , thi s i s th e report . I t wa s jus t sen t ou t Friday . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 .}• I amsure ? tner e ar e copies

- availabl e < or wnoeve r wua, i u to - vev i e wit .

I t i s a proposa l an d i t i s subjec t t o chang e base d o n al l th e comment s tha t com e i n ove r th e nex t month ; but , o n Jeff' s point , th e positio n tha t h i a s bee nlai d ou t a t thi s tim e i s tha t w e expec t thos e value s ar e depresse d a s a resi.i l t •::i f year s o f attentio nbein g pai d t o thi s proble mu p there .

I thin k tha t i s particularl ytru e wit hth e typica l child , perhap s no t s o tru e wit hth e high-ris k child . Mayb e one ? o f the ? reason s wh yi t i s a high-ris k chil d i s becaus e i t ha s no t worke d wit hth e high-ris k child .

S o th e recommendatio n a t thi s poin t i s t o use . 10 0 milligram s pe r da yt o represen t a two-year-old , an d i t i s base d o nth e recommendatio nof— I canno t remembe r ou t o f whic hoffic e o f Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc yi t came— a symposiu mo nsoi l ingestio nrates .

DR . MARCUS : I believ e tha t wa s th e Exposur e Assessmen t Group . I a mno t rea l sure .

DR . vo n LINDERN : A t thi s point , w e thin k th e 10 0 milligram s pe r da yi s appropriate . W e don' t se e an yreason , a t leas t i nou r data , t o us e an yothe r number :

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : An d yo u appl y a GS Do ntha t mea n prediction ?MR . COHEN : Aroun dthat , that' s right : aroun d th e en d result . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 12 1 •iRSON : I a m

somewha t confuse d b yth e no t : i or i o f a h i i o h—r :

l s k pe r so n versu s th e avevag e pet * so n . DR . vo n LINDERN : I hop e I anticipat e thi s answer . Yoi. 1 c:anno t th:i . nI - : o f a h i gh- • r i s k ch i 1 d i n th e Bunke r Hil l situatio n i n term s o f plus-tw o standar d deviations , tha t typ e o f thing . Ther e i s a fairl y substantia l percentag e o f ou r childre n wh o are a t hig hris k becaus e the yar e livin g i n a n environmen t a t a hig h

c r on c e n t r a t i o n .

Tha t doe s no t appl ythat , statistically , i t i s a plu s o r minu s standar d tw o deviatio n typ e o f thing . I t i s a profil e tha t w e use .

I don' t kno wwha t th e exac t percentag e is , bu t it i s qu i t e a bi t h i i g h e r t ha nt ha t . CHAIRMA NLARSON : Woul d tha t typ e o f informatio n b e availabl e fo r thes e othe r place s wher e yo u are plannin g t o thi s extrapolatio n sor t o f thing ?

MR . COHEN : No t tha t I kno w of . MR . HAINES : Eas t Helen a i s probabl y th e onl y othe r dat a set .

MR . COHEN : An dEas t Helen a wa s th e stud y locatio n for th e Binde r andal l stud y action , th e sourc e o f ou r estimate . DR . RABINOWITZ : Ar e yo ui ntouc hwit hChuc k Gilbert ?

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 

### MR . COHEN : Yes .

DR . RABINOWITZ : H e had numbers , MR . COHEN : I hav e no t talke d t o hi mi n thre e

mo n t l" i s , bL

I t I k i a ve be e n k e e p i n g i n t o u c hwi t hP a u 1 Whi t e wk t c • i s als o doin g a simila r stud you t i n Washingto n State . W e a.r e anticipatin g thos e results .

Hopefull yw e wil l b e abl e t o incorporate ? thos e i r1 1 C J c i ur fi na 1 s e t o f pa r a me ? t e r s . 

### CHAIRMA N LARSON : Okay , Jeff . MR . COHEN : I

nou r handouts , it i s the- ? second table . DR . vo

nLINDERN : I have tha t referenc e i f youare intereste di

nit : Cc'IIoguie

m o_ f CK. i an

dDerma l Exgosur e t o Soil , and Dustji

_RisliZiSSSEl^ffiSD

t E2HQ} - Tha t wa s ORD , March . MR . COHEN : Marc h1988 ? CAS E STUDYRESULT S AN DDISCUSSION MR . COHEN : I a

m goingt o sho

w yousom

e preliminar y

result s actuall y runningthi s model , wher e we have beendebatingabout thi s model . Thes e are i n population s o f childre nlivingnear Eas t Helen a an da secondar y

populatio ninDallas . W e lookeda

t variou s alternativ e scenarios , includinga quarterl y averag e standard , whic hi s equivalen t t o th e curren t level , 1.5 , an dthenfiv

e alternativ e monthl y averag e standard s betwee n. 5 an d1.5 . EXECUTIVE COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 W e als o estimate d children' s blood-le;a d wit hth e aggregat e mode l an d adults ' usin g th e disaggregat e approach , a s describe d i nth e report . Thi s i s obviousl ytake nu p ir i th e recommendation s w e hav e bee nhearin g today .

Again , w e hav e assume d tw o alternativ e soi1-1ea d scenarios : on e wher e soil—lea d i s maintaine d a t baselin e 1 ev e 1 s re? gard 1 es s o f wh a t air-lea d change s o ccur re d afte r 1990 ; an d th e othe r alternativ e i s assumin g that , for whateve r reason , soil-lea ddoe s respon dinstantaneously .

W e wer e uncertai nwha t th e righ t cal l i s there . W e jus t wante dt o balanc e wha t migh t b e plausible .

DR . RABINOWITZ : Baseline . Yo udon' t mea n ba c kground . MR . COHEN : Baselin e ai r qualit y a s i t exist s today . DR . RABINOWITZ : Okay .

MR . COHEN : Thi s i s Scenari o 2 , whic hw e fee l i s th e mor e plausibl e scenario , keepin gsoi l a t constan t ove r th e ne w

fe w years . Dalla s an dEas t Helen a are listed : 24 1 childre ni nDallas , 21 7 i nEas t Helena .

Mea nblood-lead s are show nfor the*differen t scenario s andusin gth e GS Do f 1.4 2 w e calculate dpercentage s abov e selecte dblood-leads . The y are jus t showna s examples . Th e 2 5 is , I think , stil l currentl y CBC' s definitio no f toxicity . It probabl y wil l chang e i nth e nea r EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 + • ,.,. ; i i c i r future , I i ma g i rn~,

DR . MARCUS : Th e bettin g i < MR . COHEN : Right . DR . vo nLINDERN ; Wha t i s you r soi l assumptio n t he r e ? MR . COHEN : Th e soi l assumptio ni s tha t i t i s s a t whateve r ai r qualit yi s i n 1990 , excep t fo r th e bassli n case , I n othe r air-lea d ha s bee nfairl yconstan t ove r th e previou s year s an d th e so i 1—1 ea d i s estimate d base? d o n tha t a i r qL

I a 1 i t y . Afte r th e ne wstandar d i s set , i t remain s fixed . DR . vo n LINDERN : S o i t cam e fro mtha t formul a yo u discusse d before ?

MR . COHEN : Yes . Tha t i s a nequilibrate d soil , an d base d o ntha t progressio nmodel .

Jus t t o rea d acros s th e to p lin e t o giv e yo u a n ide a o f wha t i s goin g on , fo r the ; 19.3 3 baselin e i nDalla s w e hav e a mea nblood-lea d o f 7.5 . 2 0 percen t o r s o o f th e childre n woul d b e abou t 1 0 an d 2. 3 percen t woul d b e abou t 1 5 an d .0 3 abov e 25 .

DR . MUSHAK : Tha t i s fo r certai nair-lead s an d certia nsoil-leads .

MR . COHEN : Yes . I t i s actuall ya certai nair

lea dstandar d an d th e associate d air-qLialit yimpact s aroun d th e sourc e give ntha t standard . 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4

# J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 DR . vC J n LI ND E RN : D o yo u k n o wwha t t ha t n u n i be r i s o f th e lea d equilibrated ?

MR . COHEN ; W e estimat e ai r qualit ya t th e highes t recepto r point , dus t a t tha t standard , whateve r standar d tha t we? ar e lookin g at .

DR . vo nLINDERN : S o whe n w e ar e lookin g a t 1.5 , w e ar e sayin g 1. 5 i s th e maximu m recepto r point . MR . COHEN : The nth e ai r qualit ywoul d b e disperse di nth e mode l aroun d that . So i 1- 1 ea dwoul dbe ? predicte dfor eac hrecepto r poin t andsprea dou t ona block by-bloc kbasi s i nthi s cas e base donth e regressio nmode l o f th e equilibrate dsoi l air-lea drelationships .

I don' t hav e i t here , bu t I wa s goin gt o sho w yo u th e result s tha t w e go t fro m th e aggregat e mode l for children . Tha t i s wher e w e us e th e air/blood/soi1-leve l slop e simila r t o wha t wa s don e i n1973 .

I thin ki t i s i nth e hand-out . I t i s a plo t o f th e result s lookin gat onl y percentage s abov e 1 0 microgram s pe r decimeter . Yo uca nse e th e sensitivit y o f th e result s andse e wha t soi l scenari o yo uloo kat .

Scenari o 1 , again , i s assumin gtha t air-lea d produce s a ninstantaneou s chang e i nsoi1-1ea dlevels . Yo u ca nals o se e tha t ther e ar e som e difference s betwee n locations : Dallas , i non e scenari o havin glowe r blood-leads ; i nth e othe r slightl y highe r for th e lowe r standards . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 O f fth e grap h woul d b e baselin e percentages , whi ;

a r e pr- ' Ci O '/S I ti n I thin k I d o hav e a plo t o f th e

ci r th e a g q r e g a t e aioci e 1 , o bvi ou s 1 yo n o n e s c e n a r i o

. j us t 1 C

J P:: > ki ng a t t he a i r - 1 e a d/ b1 o o d -le a c: l r e 3 . a t i o ns I j i p d:i . r e c 1 1 y withou t goin g t h r oug hso i 1 ••-lea d assump t i ons . DR . vei n LINDERN : Ther e i s a differenc e i n tha t becaus e o f th e geographi c lay-ou t o f th e area?

MR . COHEN : Yes , an d becaus e o f th e air-qualit y i mpa c ts . DF? . vo nLINDERN : Th e modelin g impact s wher e th e receptor s are?

DR . McLAMB : An d th e distributio no f people . MF? . HAINES : Ho wclos e the yare t o th e site . DR . McLAMB : Exactly . Ar e the ycoinciden t wit h th e hig hrecepto r value s fo r th e modelin g exercise ?

MR . COHEN : W e hav e don e th e sam e kind s o f thing s fo r middle-ag e men , i nthi s cas e whites , usin g th e disaggregat e model . Again , yo u coul d se e th e mea nblood

leads , percentage s abov e variou s selecte dcut-offs .

Inthi s case , w e wen t downt o 8 , 1 0 a t 15 . In Dallas , fo r example , w e predic t 18-1/ 2 percen t woul db e abov e 8 , 5. 4 percen t woul d b e abov e 1 0 i n198 8 baseline .

From wha t w e hear dtoday , I thin kw e nee dt o re examin e th e methodolog yw e us e to,estimat e blood-lead s for women ; bu t usin g wha t i s describe di nth e repor t a s i t stand s

. ) • EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.2 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 improveme n mean : no t now , w e hav e som e result s fo r them , too .

Again , yo u ca nse e th e smal l incrementa l a s yo u g o t o lowe r an d I ow e sensitiv e a s childre nar e a t th e highe r end . Onc e w e arriv e a t cas e stud yresult s tha t we ? a.r< comfortabl e with , w e woul d lik e t o incorporat e the m int o t

l draf t staf f pape r i nearl y.1989 . Th e staf f pape r wil l contai nrecommendation s o nalternativ e standards .

"h e focu s wil l b e b1 • •lea d1 c- ? ve 1 s o f c o n>: : e r n base d o n th e criteri a documen t assessment , whateve r update d assessmen t tha t ECA Owil l win du pdoing . W e wil l als o have ? recommendation s onth e aggregat e tim e o f th e standard , mo ni t or

ingfrequency . Cas e stud y

result s wil l als o b e incorporate d int o tFi e benefit s analysis . Tha t methodolog y wa s reviewe d b ya subcommitte e las t year . Thos e result s wil l b e incorporate d int o th e overal l regulator y impac t analyses . Dav e McLambwil l tal kabou t thi s by th e endo f th e day . Tha t i s al l I wante dt o sFio w yo ufor now . DR . RABINOWITZ : Onth e hand-outs , onpag e 4 4 wher e w e hav e th e result s o f th e disaggregat e mode l for wome n o f child-bearin gage , ther e i s a nasteris kan di t refer s t o children . Tha t i s th e en do f it ?

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.3 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 MR

. COHEN : N i DR . RABINOW 1 Mayb e tha t i s fro ma differen t

MR . COHEN : Yes . DR . RABINOWITZ ; Okay . MR . COHEN : I t shoul d rea d "Women , 1 5 t o 4 4 year s

•'.j r <•.•*

. u& . DR . MUSHAK : Wha t d o thos e refe r to ?

MR . COHEN : Th e actua l numbe r o f people ? tha t wer e withi nthos e areas . Tha t i s base d o nCensu s data .

DR . MUSHAK : - S o w e are talkin g abou t 2 0 people ? MR . COHEN : 2 0 wome ni ntha t ag e group : a reall y smal l population , a lo t mor e children .

DR . MUSHAK : Thi s i s th e Cit y o f Dallas ? MR . COHEN : Yes . DR . MUSHAK : Intuitively , tha t seem s lik e a low number . I don' t know .

MR . COHEN : 3 kilometers . DR . MUSHAK : Still , 2 0 pregnan t wome ni n3 kilometer s i na bi gcity —

DR . RABINOWITZ : S o for eac ho f thes e 2 0 women , ther e i s a certai nair-lead , a certai nsoil-lea dandthe n the y d o th e mathematics ?

MR . COHEN : Yes . DR . RABINOWITZ : The y ge t a distributio nfor eac h 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.3 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 analysi s i s par t o f th e lea d NAAQ S review .

Dav e wil l giv e yo u som e ba c kg r ou.rid . ULJ. Dj?l'i

d W_j . McLam b DF? . McLAMB : Th e reaso nw e hav e bee nmakin g a bi g poin t abou t thi s las t ite mi s becaus e i t i s tie d t o th e lea d NAAQS . Ther e ar e a t leas t thre e peopl e o nthi s Subcommitte e wh o reviewe d th e benefi t analysis .

I jus t wan t t o remin d thos e guys : w e ar e usin g th e output s o f th e blood-lea d modelin g exercis e w e hav e see n t o da y t o ge ne r a t e t he be ne f i t e ? s t i m a t e s . A littl e mor e background . A primar y

motivatio nfo r doin gtFi e benefi t estimate s a t leas t starte di nth e Environmenta l Protectio n Agenc y fro m Executiv e Orde r 12-29 1 whic hrequire s u s t o d o benefi t andcos t estimate s for alternativ e standard s w e consider . Hence , w e have , i nth e past , gotte nsom e pe?e r revie w o nho w

w e migh t g o abou t doin gbenefits . Equall y

important , w e wan t t o mak e sur e i t i s fairl y consisten t wit hth e scientifi c literatur e a s i t i s graded , i f yo uwill , b y CASAC . Basically , ou r benefi t analysi s for lea dfocuse s o nthre e differen t healt hendpoints , th e firs t bein go nth e char t uphere : elevation s i nerythrocyte , protoporphi nand blood-lead . 

## Jx EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4

.....j-y-.. . 'vs-***-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 20 2 1 22 2 3 2 4 2 5 C if t hc is e20w o me nandt hat i s w hat

is s ho w nI-

1 er c ? ? MR

. COHEN ; Yes

. DR . RABINOWITZ ; S o o f th e 20 , ther e wil l b e differen t a i r - 1 e a d is , c i i f fer e n t s o i 1 - 1 e a c i s c j e p e n c

i i n g o n — MR . COHEN : Dependin g o n wha t bloc k the yliv e on . DR . RABINOWITZ ; Okay . CHAIRMA NLARSON ; Yo u mentione d tha t yo u ha d prediction s base d o n wher e people ? 1 i vec i re l at iv e t o the ' impac t o f ai r quality .

DR . McLAMB : Precisely , w e loo k a t th e Censu s data , th e mos t detaile d dat a tha t w e ca n ge t whe n w e appl y thi s t o othe r place s t o se e th e impac t o f alternativ e standards . W e preten d tha t i t i s lik e a geographi c weighte d averag e o f wher e peopl e ar e locate d withi na Censu s tract . W e us e anIS C mode l t o predic t ambien t concentration s unde r alternativ e standards .

I f ther e are peopl e tha t ar e block-group-centroi d for on e receptor , the nthe y wil l ge t whateve r concentratio n th e mode l predicte dfor tha t receptor . Typically , w e find severa l block-group-centroid s withi ns o man y kilometer s o f thes e sources .

W e wil l hav e endgroup s o f peopl e wit hth e sam e ambien t concentratio nwhich , dependin gonth e scenari o w e loo kat , wil l dictat e th e soi l anddus t levels . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 3 0

Doe s tha t answe r you r que?stion ? MR . HAINES : W e com e up wit ha mea nan d the nw e predic t th e GS D fro mth e mean .

D R . Mc L Al

v l B : Ye s . CHAIRMA NLARSON : Yo u hav e a varianc e predicte d b y th e mode l whic hyo u use ? t o jus t collectivel yus e tha t inf o r m a t i o n t o c om p u t e a m ean . DR . McLAMB : Tha t i s correct . C H AIRMA NLARS0N : T he nyo u predic t a diffe r e n t

v a r i o u s f r o m

t h e s e c o n dstep . DR . McLAMB : Th e secon dvarianc e i s give ntha t w e discus s earlie r here .

CHAIRMA N

LARSON : W e don' t fee l tha t th e varianc e predicte db y

th e mode l i s goin gt o captur e al l th e variables . W e ar e fortunat e tha t w e hav e dat a o nthi s measurement .

MR . COHEN : Ar e ther e an y othe r question s o nthat ? [N o response. ] Okay . D o w e wan t t o g o t o th e nex t phase ? CHAIRMAN

LARSON : I thin ki t woul db e usefu l t o kee pgoin ghere , i f possible . Pag e 48 .

MR . COHEN : W e hav e bee ntalkin gabou t othe r application s o f thes e methodologies . Ther e ar e a lo t o f analyse s withi nth e agenc y andoutsid e relatin gt o lead . Naturall y

ther e ha s bee na lo t o f interes t i nwha t

. ) • EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4

# J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 13 1 ha s bee ngoin g o ni n developin g thes e models . We though t i t woul d b e usefu l t o ge t som e feedbac k fro mth e Subcommitte e o n th e potentia l usefulnes s o f extrapolatin gthes e methodologie s t C Jc i t k i e v ' s i t ua t i ons , Again , I don' t hav e th e slid e bu t i t i s inyou r hand-out . Ther e ar e a coupl e o f othe r application s tha t hav e bee niden t i f i ed .

Fo r example , we tal kabou t Supe r Fun dsites , lead contami n ated-soi 1 problems . Th e Offic e o f Drinkin gWate r wa s intereste di nho w t o asses s high-leve l pea kintermitten t exposure s fro

m schoo l drinkin gfountains , fo r example . The y though t th e biokineti c mode l wa s an appropriat e too l t o measur e th e rapi dchange s associate dwit h that . Lan dapplicatio no f sewag e sludg e i s anothe r potentia l i nt eres t edassessment .

Similarly , municipa l wast e incinerator s produc e som e lea dfro

m th e stacks . Ther e migh t b e som e relevanc e for som e o f thes e models . I t ma y no t b e th e biokineti c model , i t ma y b e th e aggregat e model .

Relativ e rankin go f differen t pollutant s base don dail y intak e estimates . A lo t o f ris kassessment s i nth e Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y are base do naverag e dail y or acceptabl e dail y intake , andth e uptak e mode l produce s thos e kind s o f estimate s for lead .

Th e benefit s analysi s for th e regulato r impac t

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4)



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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 15 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 21 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 13 3 Basicall yCD C ha s designe dprotocol s whic hdefine ? h o wan d whe nchildre nare treate dfo r lea dtoxicit ybase do n t he s e t wo pa r a me t e r va 1 u e ? s . I nou r benefit s analysis , w e basically , fo r alternat i ve

? s t a nda r ds , 1 o o ke ? da t ho wc o s t s o f s c r e e ni ng a nd treatmen t var ya s yo u 1 owe? r ambien t exposur e t o lead .

Th e s e c on d be n e f i t c a t e ? g o r ywe

? 1 o o 1 ••

: a t i s intelligen t quotient , o r I Q decrements . A s yo u reduc e an y kin d o f lea d exposure—i n ou r cas e ambien t lead—ther e are a numbe r o f studie s tha t sho wtha t IQ , a t leas t th e averag e IQ , wil l chang e fo r larg e group s o f children .

I nou r valuatio nmethodology , w e basicall yloo k a t ho wth e productivit yo f societ ychange s a s I Q improve s marginally , an d w e measur e tha t b ylookin g a t basicall y change s i nexpecte d lifetim e earning s an d stuf f lik e that .

Ther e i s a secon d sub-categor y o f thi s I Q stuff . Tha t ha s t o d o wit hcos t o f treatin gchildre nwh o are severel y

retarded . I f yo uchang e ambien t lea dby som e amount , yo u wil l chang e blood-lea dexposur e whic hgive s yo uth e margina l chang e i nIQ , whic hagai nshift s th e distribution : ther e wil l b e slightl y

fewe r childre ndesignate da s bein gseverel y retarde dandthe y wil l ge t les s remedia l educatio nand treatment . Th e thir dbenefi t categor y w e hav e bee nabl e t o EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 134 evaluate ? ha s t o d o wit helevation s i n bloo d pressure? : quit e a controversia l category , I think , ove r th e pas t fe wyears . A t leas t t o date , we ? stil l pla n t o pursue ? that , onl yfo r adul t males , t ho u g h , I wou1 d 1 i k e t o me n t ion .

Bas i c a 1 1 yF*ie

r e , whe n we? es t i ma t e be?ne f i t s , w e 1 oo k a t th e reduction s i nth e cost s o f treatin g hypertensiv e males . Se c o n d 1 y , w e 1 o o k a t t he reduce d c os t o f t r ea t i n g cardiovascula r an d cerebral-vascula r consequence s o f elevate? d b1oo d p ressure .

I woul d lik e t o mak e severa l comment s i nregar d t o qualificatio n o f th e limitation s an d th e benefit s w e hav e bee nabl e t o estimate .

W e kno wther e are a lo t o f othe r significan t healt heffect s that , a t leas t currently , w e don' t fee l w e ca n quantify . Furthermore , th e benefi t categorie s w e are estimatin g benefit s fo r are for thos e categorie s w e fel t comfortabl e identifyin g a s o f earl y1987 .

A s fa r a s w e are

concerned , th e jur yi s ou t righ t no wa s t o whethe r o r no t w e ca nexpan d ou r benefi t analysi s an y a t al1 . W e wil l wai t t o se e wha t happen s i nth e nex t ful l CASA C meeting .

I t i s myunderstandin g ther e are quit e a fe w stud i e s s t i1 1 out .

I nMarc h1987 , w e convene d a Subcommitte e ver y EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 rnu c h1 i k e t hi s one . There ? wer e at?out t w o a d d i t i o n a 1 economist s o ni t a s wel l a s member s fro mth e Healt h Committee , fro mth e ful l CASAC .

We a !:•: • I ••: e c l fo r c o r

nme nt s . We r e s p o nde dt C J t h£- ? comment s a t tki e meeting . W e go t closur e lette r fro mbot h Mci r t L i ppma n , co-s i gne d byBo bP.o we wh o wa s t h e

Subcomm i tte e co-chairman , bac k i n Jun e .193 7 I believe .

We h a ve i n c o r p o r a t e d t hos e c omment s i n t o t he documen t wit hth e exceptio no f som e comment s I believ e w e go t fro meithe r Dr . Mahaffe yo r Dr . Chisol mwh o sai d tha t ou r E P blooci-lea d relationship s shoul d b e disaggregate d b yAR N status . W e ar e currentl ymodifyin g thos e physica l effect s function s tha t giv e u s thos e benefi t categories . Alla n• Marcu s ha s bee nworkin g wit hu s o ntFiat .

S o w e prett ymuc hincorporat e al l th e benefit s w e go t excep t fo r th e fina l change .

W e hav e ye t t o d o any benefi t estimatio nfor thes e preliminar y

blood-lea dnumber s yo uhav e see ntoda y becaus e the y wer e jus t avai

lable a coupl e o f week s ago . Again , w e hav e no t finishe dupth e blood-lea dEP A stuf f o nAR N

status . Jus t t o giv e yo uanide a ho w al l thi s fit s int o th e RIA , yo uwil l se e a littl e block . Onth e top , i t say s "blood-lea dexposure" . Tha t i s wha t w e hav e bee ntalkin g abou t today . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.3 8

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• s>aiv»- p '••.:'"&ft-.pi?' : i.'^wSf' v ;*ii*iiirr .

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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 I nth e RIA , ther e ar e a numbe r o f analyse s goin g o nan d the yfee d int o on e artii'the r i n variou s ways, . Therir . ar e reall yothe r link s tha t kin d o f fee d o n on e anothe r i n a g e ne r a 1 e qL

i i 1 i br i u ms e ns e , bu t I do n' t wa nt t o c : 1 o u dt he discussio n wit hthat .

I nan yevent , th e to p ro wdescribe s ou r benefi t estimates . W e loo k a t base?lin e ambien t concentration s and , usin g dispersio n modelings , we- ? estimate ? ambien t baselin e concentrations . The? n w e se e ho ww e ad d control s an d ho wlea d concentration s wil l chang e a s w e ad d control s t o ou r ambien t impact s measure , whic hagai ndrive s blood-lea d a s w e have ? see n today . Change s i n blood-lea d wil l yiel d change s i n healt h effects , an d th e healt heffect s are value d a s I jus t described . A

t th e sam e time , th e ambien t impact s are drivin g blood-lea d exposur e al l th e wa ydow nt o benefits . W e are estimatin gengineerin gcost s a s w e ad d controls .

The nthroug ha lo t o f simple-minde d economi c models , w e estimat e socia l costs . Yo u pu t th e benefit s an d th e cost s togethe r an dyo u com e u pwit ha benefit/cos t analysi s prett y

muc ha s th e mandat e i nExecutiv e Orde r 12 - 291 . Tha t conclude s m y presentation . DR . MUSHAK : Le t m e understand . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.3 9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 15 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 21 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 Th e Clea nAi r Ac t say s yo u wil l no t

DR . McLAMB : Absolutely . DR . MUSHAK : Bu t yo u d o thi s anyway . DR . McLAMB : Well , th e Presiden t tol d u s to . [Laughter ] DR . MUSHAK : Ok : ay . DR . RABINOWITZ : S o yo u sor t o f close d i n term s o f healt heffect s yo u wan t t o conside r fo r th e purpose s o f thi s cost/benefi t analysis ?

DR . McLAMB : W e ar e close d t o dat e unti l th e ful l CASA C convene s agai nan d look s a t th e ne wliterature . I believ e w e ca nquantif yfeta l effects , for instance .

S o righ t no wi t i s fixe d i ntime , bu t w e prett y muc hhav e t o tak e th e lea d unti l tfte scientifi c communit y come s t o som e sor t o f genera l agreemen t tFiat w e ca nactuall y valu e on . MR . HAINES : Isn' t i t tru e ther e are othe r effect s identifie di nth e literatur e tha t are well-accepte d withi nth e scientifi c communit y tha t yo uhav e problem s evaluating ?

DR . McLAMB : An dther e ar e som e n on-effect s o n whic hw e don' t hav e th e physica l functions , also : a sub categor y

o f th e one s w e canno t quantify . MR . HAINES : S o i t i s aninteractiv e type . Befor e h e ca ncom e upwit hbenefits , ther e are severa l condition s EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.4 0

1



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# )S r tha t ha v DR . RABINOWITZ i S o you don' t wa n tha t reporte d some't hi nq . Yo u wan t some ? kin d tha t thi s i s a s i mil a r phe n omeno n ?

MR . COHEN ; No . W e nee d t o mak e th e distinctio n i B *£ • o n e pap e v consensu s

:lea r betwee nth e bene f i t s a r - -" - " • talysi s ari

d th e health-ris k assessmen t tha t goe s t o th e staff . W e recommen d a blood-lea d leve l o f concer nwil l incorporat e healt heffect s whethe r o r

no t the yc a

nbe ? m o ne t i :•: e

? d. W e are no t ignorin g thos e othe r healt heffect s i n settin gth e standard . I ndoin gth e benefit s analysis , w e hav e t o dra w

th e lin e tha t thos e effect s tha t ca nb e quantifie di nmonetar y terms . MR . HAINES : Tha t i s th e poin t I wa s tryin gt o make . Davi dha s tw o condition s onwha t doe s th e scienc e sa y abou t a healt heffect . W e are goin gt o us e th e tota l dat e set , a portio no f whic hh e ma y no t b e abl e t o monetiz e andcom e wit ha monetar y valu e on . DR . McLAMB : A

goo dexampl e i s wha t i s th e valu e o f improvin gforce dexpirator y volume ? W e ha da toug htime , a s aneconomist , evaluatin gthos e kind s o f healt heffects , a t leas t t o date .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Prio r t o som e discussio namon g u s here , I wante dt o tur ni t ove r briefl y t o Bo bfor som e

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.4 1

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"i i! .*siif.*ft.-«V l ^ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 additiona l comment s o n th e proces s w e ar e involve d wit h here

. Ai

. Pwber_ tE-LsL*A!<

MR . FLAAK : Befor e th e Subcommitte e get s int o it s filia l wrap-u p toda yan d som e o f th e genera l consensu s point s t k i a t t he 3 u bc o m mi 1 1 e e wa nt s t o br

i ng t o t he

C o mft i i . 1 1 e e ' Sp

a t te ntio nge t gelle dan dfinalized , I wante dt o tal k a little

bi t abou t th e proces s whereb yth e Committe e operations ; an d her e I sa yth e ful l CASAC , th e seven-membe r Committee .

Fo r thos e individual s wh o aire ne wt o th e CASA C process—Pau l an d Scot t an d Ian—thi s i s primaril yfo r yo u s o yo u hav e a nunderstandin g o f ho ww e d o business . Fo r th e res t o f yo u wh o hav e bee ninvolve d i nthi s before , i t i s a rearrangemen t o f somethin g yo u probabl y kno w a littl e bi t abou i t . Thi s i s a Subcommitte e o f CASAC . A s such , it s recommendation s pas s throug hth e ful l Committee .

CASA C i s th e onl y Committe e withi nth e Scienc e Advisor y

Boar dwhos e recommendation s g o directl y t o th e Administrato r withou t passin gthroug hth e Scienc e Advisor y Board' s Executiv e Committe e or Steerin gCommittee .

Tha t i s becaus e CASA C i s mandate da s a separat e committe e by

separat e legislatio nandi s merel y house dwithi n th e Scienc e Advisor y Boar dfor administrativ e purposes . A s fa r a s a Subcommitte e i s concerned—an dal l o f ou r subcommittee s ar e chaire db y eithe r a membe r o f th e ful l 

### Jk EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 A0 CASA C or

b yanothe r membe r o f th e Scienc e Advisor yBe i <-.i rI. J

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p . ; i .. . J . whateve rOBJ. I oe v dn s ari d result s com e ou t hi s mee t in q toda ywil l b e pu t i n som e kin d o f a concise , clear , to-.-the

poin t writte nfor mbyTi man d I , a t som e poin t i nth e nex t coupl e weeks* , afte r thi s meeting , an d forwarde d aroun d t o th e othe r membev s o f th e Subcommitte e fo r concurrence .

0 nc e ? t k i e S ubc o m mi 1 1 e

? e me mb e r s a r e s a t i s f i e dwi t k

i tkte document , i t wil l b e passe d o nt o th e ful l CASA C seve n member s fo r thei r fina l sign-of f a t tha t point .

Ther e wil l b e a lea dmeetin g o f th e ful l Committe e som e tim e i n th e earl ypar t o f 1989 , perhap s i n Februar yo r so . W e don' t hav e a fir m dat e ontha t yet . A t tha t tim e or

perhap s earlier , certainl ya t tha t meeting , Dr . Larso nwil l mak e a presentatio nwhic hwil l summa r i z e th e d i scuss i cm s he r e , essen t i a l 1 y1 ay i n g t o r e?st thi s documen t a s far a s tha t meetin gcomin gupi nFebruar y i s concerned , whic hi s th e purpos e o f havin gthi s meetin gtoday .

Ther e ma y

b e anopportunit y t o presen t thi s t o th e ful l seven-membe r Committe e a t anearlie r meetin gt o ge t a sign-of f oni t or w e ma y d o i t vi a th e mail , whic hw e ofte n d o whe na nissu e i s particularl y controversial . Ther e i s anozon e meetin gschedule di nth e middl e o f December , whic hma y b e anappropriat e tim e t o brin gthi s repor t t o th e ful l Committee' s attentio nfor a few minutes . Wit htha t i nmind , whateve r fina l comment s w e hav e

> EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 24 2 5 '

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# JThank : you . CHAIRMA NLARSON : Prio r t o mytask : t o tryin g t o summarise—partl yverball yhere? 5 bu t als o hopefully , wit h

s o r ne mor e c o ns i de r e dt ho ug I i t , I wi. 1 1 wvi t e s c: i me t h i i ng do w n, pas s it aroun dan d w e wil l al l tak e a shot , a t it—- I woul d 1 i ke t o ge t s o m e s e ns e f r C J m t h i e S u bc o m

m i 1 1 e e me m

be r s o nt he i r vi e w s o

na fe w o f t hi e qu es t i on s . CHAIRMAN ' S SUMMAR Y

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Firs t o f all , wer e th e comment s tha t yo usubmitte dandwhic hwer e addresse dearlie r toda y addres s adequately ? Tha t i s t o say , air e yo u satisfied ? Give nth e fac t tha t the y migh t respon di nth e wa y tha t the y did , d o yo uconside r tha t anadequat e addressin go f th e comment s tha t yo uhav e hear dtoday ?

Wil l tha t b e sufficien t or ar e ther e additiona l comment s or issue s tha t wer e raise dtoda y tha t wer e no t i n an y o f thos e comment s tha t w e hear dthi s morning ?

I hav e mad e a lis t her e o f som e of'm y ow ntha t ma y b e addresse ddirectl y or indirectl y

i nsom e o f th e earlie r comments . Ar e th e modelin gapproache s reasonabl y structured ? Tha t i s t o say , are we i nagreemen t wit hth e type s o f

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 14 2 exposur e model s tha t w e hav e seen , a t leas t i nthe?. '

: ructu raJ

. To r: D necessa ri 3 yth e i rip e

Ca n w e qe tsom e sens e o r r c nufiiD&

r "her e seemec i a genera l agreemen t abou t th e approac ho f biokineti c uptak e fo r th e chi1dre n an d som e discussion s pr o an d co n abou t th e

a g g r e g a t e / c

i i s a g g r e g a t e m

o d e 1 s . Kate ? GENERA L DISCUSSIO N

DR . MANAFFEY : I ha d a n easie r t i m e wit ht he biokineti c approac hrecognizin g i t i s missin g hug e amount s o f info r mation .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : I gues s tha t i s th e secon d question . Give ntha t w e ar e comfortabl e wit htha t .approach , are th e avai l a.bl e dat a t o b e use d ther e use d appropriately ?

I ha d a numbe r o f point s tha t wer e possibl y a t leas t unde r som e discussion : th e numbe r o f milligram s a da y eate nby

youn gchildren ; th e issue s o f th e constanc y o f soil lea dafte r rapi dreductio ni nair-lea dversu s som e correlatio nbetwee nth e two .

M y feelin gwa s ther e wa s som e consensu s tha t w e shoul dkee ptha t so i 1- 1 ea dvalu e constant , but * tha t th e dus t value s perhap s ar e mor e responsiv e t o th e ai r values .

Th e questio no f smoothin go f th e dat a for th e intermediate-ag e children , I wa s no t quit e sur e ho w w e cam e downa s a Subcommitte e o ntha t issue . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 •* ? o f informatio n eithe r way . probabl yth e rathe;'; " abrup t approac hi s i f yo u ar e

,.- . •! - i . t yo u ar

e

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i ng 1 i k

e a c i u 1 1 s „ DR . CHISOLM : I woul d gues s i t woul d slo wdow n from , say , si xt o te n an d the n you ge t i n th e adolescen t growt hspurt .

DR . MUSHAK : I t coul d wel l be . DR . CHISOLM : I t probabl ydoe s gro wwit hth e growt hrate .

MR . COHEN : Tha t i s where- ? w e dra w th e line , really , a t si xyear s old . 13 DR . CHISOLM : Forge t th e terribl e adolescence , 1 4 right ? 1 5 [Laughter ] 16 CHAIRMA N LARSON : Anothe r issu e whic hwa s raised : 1 7 Give nth e assumptio no f a relativel y constan t lea dsource , 1 8 ho w

d o yo uestimat e wha t tha t i s i nth e absenc e o f soi l 19 informatio nwhe nyo ug o ou t an dtak e thi s mode l elsewhere ? 2 0 Ther e wa s som e discussio nabou t th e difference s i n 2 1 tha t steady-stat e air-1ead/soi1-1ea drelationship . Mayb e w e 2 2 ca ntak e a loo ka t ho w th e result s look . W e ca nvar y tha t 2 3 ove r th e rang e tha t w e wer e discussing . 2 4 DR . vo nLINDERN : Ca nI as ka questio nan dge t a 2 5 littl e bi t o f clarificatio no ntha t point ?

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4J

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### .y.xx i ?-ccin e o i cho^ e eno s Li p hingin g or •tv,e p r e d i ct:i

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: tc o tk i at. I t seem s i t coul d b e appropriat e t o m e t o g o ou t arte l evaluat e site s wher e yo u don' t hav e informatio n t o evaluat e th e impac t o f propose d standards .

Ar e w e t hi nki ng i n t e r m s o f i m p 1 eme n t a t i o nt k

t a t wa yas ; well ? Whe nw e ge t t o implementation , wil l w e loo k a t

a . c t u a 1 s

i o i 1 value s i nt h i e ? s e 1 o c a t i o ns ? Ha s anybod ygive ntha t an y thought ? MR . HAINES : I thin k thi s go t bac k t o you r questio no f th e polic y call . Ou r mandat e i s essentiall y t o se t anappropriat e ai r qualit y standard . W e ar e estimatin gtakin gint o accoun t soil /dust

lead , food , tota l lea dexposure ; bu t w e wil l b e implementin g anai r standard , a s th e Administrato r judges , providin g protectio nwit hanadequat e margi no f safety .

Separat e andapart , yo uhav e th e paralle l issu e o f wha t d o yo ud o i nth e soi l clean-up . S o ther e i s clarificatio ni nth e legislativ e mandate s betwee nour bes t estimate s o f soi1/dust-lea dlevel s andtryin gt o arriv e a t a n appropriat e standard , bu t whe ni t come s aroun dt o implementatio nw e wil l b e implementin gth e ai r aspec t o f it . Supe r Fun dan dothe r peopl e wil l b e makin ga nindependen t determination , t o som e extent , whethe r o r no t tha t soi l need s

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4ui 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 i .- p c r t 'S i be c i e a ne d; .

t p . Ther e is:

- no t th e jointnes s tha t you r comment s sugge?s t e d a t t h i s po i n t .

Tkiat ma yb e a questio nw e wil l hav e t o discus s OLivselves . I t i s an interestin g thin g yo u hav e lai d out : whethe r o r no t i t shoul d be .

DR . vo nLINDERN : Wher e w e ar e a t her e i s t o

e va 1 u a t e? — MR . HAINES : Th e ai r portion . Unde r the ? Clea nAi r Act , tha t i s wha t w e are her e about . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : On e o f th e othe r inputs , perhap s whic hi s mentione dbu t I di dno t ge t a sens e o f wher e w e wer e wit hit , i s thi s sor t o f communit y exposur e issu e versu s th e b1oc kor site-specifi c exposuve .

I s tha t or i s tha t no t somethin gimportan t tha t i s impor t an t j andi s i t take nint o accoun t i nyou r analysis' ?

Ian , yoL

i mentione dtha t earlier . DR . vo nLINDERN : Again , I thin ktha t sor t o f tie s i nt o th e sam e thin gwe jus t talke dabout . Ther e are situation s aroun dthes e poin t source s wher e w e kno w a lo t mor e tha nmakin ga mode l estimate .

Inmos t cases , w e coul dprobabl y develo pa bette r model ; bu t a s I understan di t tha t i s no t somethin gt o d o here . MR . HAINES : I thin kther e ar e tw o issue s here . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4 t1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 . L - r ; -I - •! - r, l;p f-:: H h i | .; , I ; ion ••eiri qJ . r iyou r

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wha t yo uar e e ffe c tc i n e s o u rc e i s c l c o m i n a ti n g t!

• is impa c t

e db ytha t

sou r c : e . B yth e sam e tc>k&n , whe n Eas t Helen a w e wer e kid s i n that . W1 1 er e w e t r an s f e r t hi s t o a nurba n area , s a y Dallas , tha t sourc e i s affectin g a relativel ysmal l are a aroun d there? .

I ciues s I a mtryin g t o differentiat e i s tha t a communit yi n Eas t Helena , whic hI kno wbette r tha n Silve r Valley , i s probabl yth e whol e tow n i n flue s nee d b yth e smelte r o r a t leas t a goo d portio n o f i t a s oppose d t o a Dallas

situatio nwher e i t i s onl ya smal l geographi c ares i o f th e city . I a mno t sur e i f w e ar e fa r apar t o n wha t w e are-? doin g here . I thin k w e ar e Lisin g differen t 'word s t o sa y basicall yw e shoul d b e looke d a t th e zon e o f influenc e o f tha t stationar ysource .

CHAIRMA NLARSON : Thi s get s t o th e questio no f give ntha t w e hav e a structur e tha t w e ar e comfortabl e with , availabl e data , ther e wa s som e discussio no f variou s uncertaintie s tha t nee d t o b e looke d a t i nterm s o f th e fina l output , a s inputs .

Ar e th e propose d application s o f thes e approache s

^.: EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.4 9

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y

• _•*-V^-p ' • •

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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 'asonable'" ' Tha t i- ', i nthis-

- case , th e b i o k i ne t i uptak e mode l applie d t o tlie childre nan d perhaps , o r perhap s not , som e disaggregat e mode l applie d t o th e adult' s o r some ? se t o f adults .

I ge t a consensu s tha t th e applicatio no f th e firs t mode l t o th e childre n i s mos t appropriate , bu t I a m stil l no t quit e SLire abou t wha t w e d o wit hth e disaggregat e mode l an d th e pregnan t wor n pe n o r not , o r whethe r o r no t there ? wa s som e consensu s abou t that .

I t seem s certai n tha t ther e wa s no t muc h informatio na t al l o nth e fetus , an d w e shoul d probabl ymak e sur e w e sta yclea r o f that .

DR . MUSHAK : I suppos e the ycoul d hav e equa l billing . Jef f an d I wer e talkin g a littl e bi t a t lunc h abou t usin g thi s a s adat a poin t for th e newborn , a t poin t o f birt hwit hsom e assumptions , andusin ganadul t mode l hybri d o f thi s plu s wha t Mik e ha dpublishe dt o tr y t o com e upwit h somethin gfor wome nandd o anadjustmen t for th e women' s lead . Tha t is , t o anadjustmen t for th e resorption : tr y t o b e a s generou s wit htha t a s possible .

Afte r that , ther e i s anoption . Tha t is , yo uar e no t reall y

lookin ga t a quote/unquot e in-uter o span . Yo uare ginnin ganothe r dat a poin t tha t i s no t available , andi t i s

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.5 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 'cnax ; w e su r CHAIRMA NLARS0!'••! : I t hi n k : w e c : a n c: e?

r t a i n1 yexp r es s ir e importan t group s t o co n s i cier , an d 'is hw e ha d mor e dat a tha n w e d o t o b e abl e t o perhap s d o i t better .

DR . MAHAFFEY : I fin d thi s har d t o reall ysa ywha t t o d o with . I don' t thin k anybod ywant s t o creat e a s i . t uat i o nwhere- ? i . t 1 ooI• : s a s t hou gh1 o o ki n ga t p r e g nan t wom e n an d th e fetus;

- i s no t somethin g t o d o be? cause-? , i n term s o f th e healt hresearch , tha t i s a grou ptha t i s extremel y importan t t o con s i der .

Th e othe r sid e o f i t becomes : Ho w d o yo ud o thi s

a n d d o i t w

i t hs o r

o e de ? gr e ? e ? o f s e

? ns e i n th e pr o ces s ? W e ar e kin do f har dpu t t o com e u pwit ha nanswer . I t sound s a s thoug hi f ther e i s somethin gi nYugoslavia ndat a wher e yo uca nge t som e blood-lead s ove r tim e durin g pregnancy , yo umigh t hav e som e informatio nt o wor kwith .

Ther e i s alway s a temptatio nt o say , "Sure , g o ahea dan dmak e thi s model , se e ho w i t looks. " ' Th e difficult y i s afte r w e hav e don e that , w e si t an dsay , "Well , w e ar e gla dyo udi dthat . I t wa s a goo dthin gt o do. "

W e hav e thi s mode l now . Ther e i s alway s a chanc e someon e wil l pic ki t u pwit ha fe w mor e set s o f assumption s

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.5 1

> 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 i n it . I kee p wonderin g wha t ar e w e creatin g i n the-? proces s o f doin g this .

DR . MUSHAK : Tha t woul d b e th e inheren t ris k wit h th e Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc yrunnin g arnu k wit hth e g e ne ? r i c r e a 1 i z a t i o r i .

MR . HAINES : Realistically , thi s bring s m e bac k t o t he ? que s t i o nI p o s e ? dbe f o r e . If , i n th e collectivel yjudgmen t o f th e Subcommittee , w e don' t thin k w e are i n a positio n t o appropriatel ymode l an d asses s thi s ris k i na quantitativ e way , becaus e w e don' t hav e th e tool s an d don' t hav e th e data — I wan t t o mak e sur e w e don' t g o dow na pathwa yan d d o somethin g tha t nobod yha s an yconfidenc e i nbecaus e o f th e absenc e o f data . I f tha t i s th e case , mayb e w e ough t t o s o stat e andsay , "We are no t i na positio nt o estimat e thes e exposure s a t thi s poin t i ntime . Thi s i s th e researc htha t wil l hav e t o b e carrie d ou t ove r th e nex t severa l year s s o w e ca nanswe r tha t question. "

Wha t I am

tryin gt o avoi di s w e coul dtak e th e approac hlai dou t i nth e paper,—yo uknow , th e alternates — pu t i ntha t caveat , indicat e the y wer e develope dfor adul t males , hav e applicabilit y t o pregnan t females . Tha t i s upi n th e air . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 W e kno wver ylittl e abou t th e biokinetic s takin g 2 place , bu t w e wil l produc e a n answer . 3 Wha t I gues s I a msayin g i s tha t if , i n th e wisdo m 4 o f people ? here , i f tha t answe r i s no t wort hth e pape r i t i s 5 writte non , wh ytak e th e tim e t o produc e it ? 6 CHAIRMA NLARSON : W e simpl yar e no t tellin g yo u t o 7 c o mp 1 e t e 1 yi g no r e t he s u bj e c t be c a u s e we f e e

? 1 i t i s a n 8 importan t targe t group . Whil e i t i s a n importan t targe t 9 group , ther e ar e othe r way s we tal k abou t i t i na qualitative ? 1 0 sense ; bu t w e canno t predic t wha t i s happenin g i nth e futur e 1 1 o n this . 1 2 DR . MAHAFFEY : I t i s m y experienc e wit hcaveat s 1 3 tha t thi s i s lik e doin gtable? s an dsomebod y pick s ou t a 1 4 coupl e o f number s andsays , "Yes , thi s i s wha t yo usaid. " 1 5 I t i s a ver yimportan t group , bu t i nterm s o f th e 1 6 biokinetics , unles s ther e i s a lo t mor e i nthi s Yugoslavia n 1 7 dat a tha nperhap s other s hav e bee nawar e of , I thin kw e ou t 1 8 wher e w e don' t wan t t o mak e hig hth e hous e o f cards . 1 9 MR . HAINES : Th e botto m line , a s I interpre t it , 2 0 i s tha t w e procee dt o tr y t o quan t itat e thos e exposures . 2 1 The nw e wil l rel y o nth e biokineti c mode l t o estimat e 2 2 children' s blood-leads . 2 3 W e wil l loo ka t adul t male s fro m th e poin t o f vie w 2 4 o f hypertensio neffect s an dhav e t o discuss , i nexposur e 2 5 terms , th e chang e i nfemale/feta l ver y muc hi na qualitativ e

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4;r?mkr<,:

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DR . MUSHAK : Katie , i f n o on e i s advancin g an y Yugoslavia ndat a as s importan t s i f the yar e elevatin g i t t o th e statu s o f a usefu l dat a set , a 3 1 tha t ha s happene d i s tha t som e mentio nwa s mad e abou t ther e a ve seria l measures; . The yprobabl yhav e som e ide a o f air-lea d level;;; . DR . MAHAFFEY : Wher e I thin k w e are , apparentl y ther e are

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a y be o nt r i r e e s u b . j c ? c t s — a nd ther e i s som e co t he r anecdota l kin do f informatio ntha t i s suggestin gtha t blood-lead s ma y g o u pi npregnanc y or ma y

g o downi npregnancy .

I f w e ar e no t sure , becaus e o f prio r exposur e h i sto r ie s i nmob i 1 i za t i o nproba b1 y o f biood- 1 ead , whethe r co r no t th e blood-lea di s goin gt o g o u por down , tryin gt o relat e tha t t o a curren t ai r leve l strike s m e a s extremel y chancy . DR . RABINOWITZ : I t i s har dfor m e t o understan d wha t th e significanc e i s o f sequentia l blood-lead s durin g pregnancy , whethe r the y g o upor down . I can'imagin e a situatio nwher e blood-lead s g o down . Tha t mean s lea dgoe s int o th e fetus .

I ca nimagin e a situatio nwher e th e blood-lea d goe s up . I t stil l goe s int o th e fetus . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.5 4

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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 i t i s har d fo r :nowwha t t o make ? o healt heffects;

- o f whethe r th e b l ood- 1 ead s g.s > u p C' r dow n i n pregnancy . DR . MUSHAK : B l ood- 1 ea d goin g up ? o r dow n doe s no t necessaril ymea nth e fetu s become s a sink . Othe r thing s happe n t o lead .

DR . RABINOWITZ : That' s right . DR . MUSHAK : I t get s excreted . DR . RABINOWITZ : I t coul d b e excrete d o r i t coul d g o t o th e fetus . I jus t don' t kno wwhic hi t is .

DR . MUSHAK : Oh , I thin k i t goe s t o th e fetus , bu t no t exclusively . Let' s qualit yit .

DR . RABINOWITZ : I hav e hear d th e placent a calle d th e thir d kidney . Mayb e th e placent a i s a sin k fo r thi s 1 ead . S o whethe r o r no t th e blood-lea d g o u p o r down , I don' t kno wwha t t o mak e o f that . I hav e enoug hfaith , fo r som e reason , i nbiokineti c modelin g tha t i f yo u somewha t diddl e wit hth e mode l an d yo u d o th e righ t things , yo u migh t approac hwha t i s goin g on .

I lik e al l th e caveat s yo u sai d abou t mayb e i t i s no t wort hdoin g i f yo u canno t d o i t right . I agre e wit h that . I woul d lik e t o dra wjus t on e possibilit yt o mayb e fin e tun e i t a littl e bit , tha t migh t b e helpful . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4

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—:*..*P.5 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 Ca n w e tak e alea f pregnanc yari d ssy , "Okay , i f thei rwisdom , tells ; u s w e ne?e? d thi s man ymo r fro m th e calc i u m s to ryi n yc.' U ave pregnan tth e FDA , i n

c.iu m pe rmon k

. ng, " an d ge t a nide a o f ho wman ymicrogram s o f lea d are gram s o t nd t he n say , "We11 , i nt h e huma nbod yth e rati o o f lea d t o calciu mi s som e certai n number , dependin g co ni f yo u ar e hig hi n lea d o r lo wi nlead,, " The n w e ca nsay , "Okay , fo r ever ygra mo f calciu m yo u require , tha t i s equivalen t t o ho wmuc hskeleto n yo u are I . e n tie r in g circulatio n fro mth e skeleto nfro m that . DR . MUSHAK : Bu t yo ustil l ne?e? da subjec t variable ? bone-lea dburden , andyo uca neasil y ge t it . DR . MAHAFFEY : Th e questio nare : I s th e skeleto n equall y

labeled ? Is:

- i t equall y

available ? Thi s i s wher e th e dat a i s s o limite dtha t w e di d no t kno w

wha t t o writ e excep t tha t i t seem s reasonable , for whateve r reason,—"reasonable " use di na strang e wa y here : for lac ko f anythin gels e t o sa y abou t it—tha t ther e are probabl y

physiologicall y man y smal l pool s o f skeleta l calcium i nlea dlevel s tha t are resorbe da t differen t times . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Th e lea di nth e calcium ? DR . MAHAFFEY : Yes . I don' t thin kw e know . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Thi s ha s serve da usefu l purpos e i nth e discussio nhighlightin gth e fac t tha t ther e i s a paucit y

o f dat a intha t area. EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.5 6

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## JHy DR . MAHAFFEY : W e hav e somethin g i n Envi£O0H;:''G;t;:;:! . Researc. htha t i s cn.i t i na mont ho r tw o tha t i s showin g som e increas e i n blood-1ead . Ther e wa s on e questio n i n NHANE S abou t menopausa l status : tha t post-menopauisa l wome nhav e a sligh t increas e i nblood-lead . I thin k i t i s abou t 1 5 o r 2 0 pe r cent . Tha t i s no t dealin g wit hpeop1 e wh o ar e spe c i f i cal l ycost eopo r o t i c . I f yo u ha d t h i i s spe? c i f i c o s t eoporo t i c g r oup , i t wouI d see mr e a so n abl e tha t t h e increas e i s substantiall ygreater .

DR . MUSHAK : I don' t kno wtha t Tyro l ha d brok e ou t a physiologicall ydiscernibl e osteoporotic . I believ e i t wa s a nage-foun d analysis .

Whe n yo u analyz e th e sam e data , yo u bette r com e u p wit hth e sam e answers .

DR . MAHAFFEY : W e hop e so . [Laughter ] DR . RABINOWITZ : Doe s i t depen do nwhethe r or no t the y tak e estrogen ? D o yo uhav e tha t information ?

DR . MAHAFFEY : I don' t thin ktha t wa s i nit . CHAIRMAN

LARSON : I gues s w e wil l leav e i t a t that . Anothe r issue , th e secon don e I woul dlik e t o discuss , i s sor t o f a secon dmodel , which.i s th e propose d approac ht o estimatin gth e varianc e i nblood-lea dusin gth e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.5 7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 g e c

i me? t r i c s t a ndar d de vi a t i o n. I s tha t app r oa c l

i accep t ab3 . e t o t ki e Subcomm i 1 1 ee ? W e hear d fro m

Ia n som e comments ; abou t possibl e examinatio n o f th e rang e o f values; . Tha t migh t b e a usefu l par t o f th e

D o yo u thin k i t i s necessar yt o loo k a t a rang e o f GSD s i n this; ? Firs t o f all , ar e w e comfortabl e wit hthi s st p p r coach ? Yo u sa w i t use d her e i nth e cas e stud ywher e there*? ' wa s a mea ncompute d an d the n a varianc e abou t tha t mea nthat

wa s compute dfor thos e plot s base dupo nth e GSDs .

DR . MAHAFFEY : It hi n kther e are tw o p r ob 1 ems , a t 1 east . On e i s tha t th e coefficien t o f variatio njus t du e t o analytica l a s th e blood-lead s g o dow nbecome s bigger : tha t the y hav e t o someho w dea l wit hthat . I thin ktha t w e are talkin gabou t blood-lead s o f unde r 1 0 an ddefinitel y unde r 5 . Thi s i s a rang e that , give n th e NHANE S wa s use dfor tha t dat a set , w e di dno t hav e ver y man y blood-lead s unde r 5 .

S o ther e i s a lowe r boundar y ontha t tha t i s unclea r wha t happen s there .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Ar e yo ulookin ga t level s i n you r NAAQ S alternativ e assessmen t i f yo uar e thinkin gabou t thi s a t thos e levels ?

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4/

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n wha t w s are

'dealin g wit hno w n o matte r wha t w e d o wit hth e ai r standard .

W e presente d a rang e o f GSD s i n th e report . W e decid e d t o p i c k c o n e j u s t t o s i mp 1 i . f yt k

t i n gs . Otherwis e o n ever ytabl e w e ca n com e up wit hw e woul d hav e fou r move .

W e nee d t o sor t o f focu s th e analyse s dow n t o a manageabl e level . W e coul dloo ka t th e highe r en d o f th e GS D rang e a s presentec i a s thi e ccon s erva t i v e choice . W e deci.de

dt o pic ka

mid-poin t becaus e w e are no t sur e wha t i s goin gt o happe ni nth e future . I t i s a resally a toug hcal l .

MR . HAINES : Th e analytica l variation , I think , o f th e lowe r blood-lea dlevel s are a seriou s problem . We hav e the e proble m

wit hth e underlyin ghealt hstudies , too , whic h ha dth e sam e proble m associate dwit hthem . I thin kour feelin gis , A , i f yo uca ncorrec t for it , B , i s i t appropriat e to ? Yo ucorrec t i t onon e sid e o f th e equatio nandi t i s uncorrecte donth e othe r sid e o f th e equatio ndoin gthat .

That , t o me , i s a perplexin gproble m how t o address : A , wha t woul dyo ud o i nth e firs t instanc e t o fixit , i f w e could ; but , B , d o yo ufi xpar t o f i t andthe nyo u stil l rel y

onth e healt heffec t studie s for whic hi t wa s no t c or r e c t ed . EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 15 7

MR . COHEN ; Ther e i s a prett ysubstantia l dis c L I s s i c

i ni nt he c r i t e r i. a c i o c um e nt o i

' i c : C J V r e c t i ng f or analytica l variatio nan d th e effec t co n the ? GSD s fro mNHANES . We c: l i. c i f i nda s-iiialle r varia nc e afte r c o rr e c t i ng f o r t he a na 1 yt i c a 1 va . r i a nc e . Fo r adult s I remembe r i t wa s 1.3 7 for urba nwhite s versus ; 1.3 3 i f yo u d o mak e th e adjustment . W e though t i t was , lik e Joh nsaid , inappropriat e thoug hbecaus e w e woul d b e

c c o r r e ct i ng o none ? s; - i . c i e a ndno t t he

ot h i e r . DR . MAHAFFEY : A ga i n, t hoss

e we r e for b1 oo d-lead s in , what , 15 , 20 , 25 ?

MR . COHEN : Well , thes e wer e adults . The y wer e 10,15 . DR . MAHAFFEY : I don' t hav e th e answer .

MR . HAINES : I thin kth e onl y approac hi s t o mak e i t clea r i nou r repor t tha t w e hav e mad e th e correction . I thin kyo uhav e t o proceed .

I don' t kno w

ho w w e coul dd o i t andwhethe r or no t i t woul db e appropriat e withou t makin ganadjustmen t acros s al l th e dat a bases . I a m no t sur e w e ca nd o that . I thin ksometime s i t introduce s a degre e o f uncertaint y

i nth e results , bu t al l w e ca nd o i s poin t ou t tha t thi s exists , unles s Jef f or Allan , or somebody , ha s a sol . ut i onfor th e pr o b1 em .

I thin ki t i s on e o f recognitio nandyo uhav e t o 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 move ? o n„ CHAIRMA NLARSON : Mathematicall yspeaking , i t i . s p r esumab l ya more- ? sensitiv e paramete r tha na simpl e multiplicativ e facto r tha t you . migh t b e changin g b yacertai n

onl ype r s;pec : t i ' i t i s a sensitiv e parame t 

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c o me yo uciorv t hav et o n ar i 1 yru n al l th e detaile d numbers , bu t giv e som e sens e o f ho w sensitiv e tha t sensitiv e paramete r is .

DR . RABINOWITZ : O nthi s sensitiv e parameter , w e c i o n' t ha ve a n ys e n s e f o r t h i e rang e i t c o u1 dacquire . MR . HAINES : Tha t i s th e proble m I see . We? kno wi t prcobabl yexists , bu t w e don' t hav e an y notio n o f wha t i t i s o r wha t th e magnitud e o f i t is .

DR . RA B I NO WI T 7. : Th e GS D i t s e 1 f ? MR . COHEN : O f th e rati o betwee ntha t andth e mean . DR . RABINOWITZ : Ther e i s a tabl e i nth e documen t showin ga whol e bunc ho f differen t numbers . The nw e hear d abou t th e sam e set , perhap s eve na mor e limite drange , tha t Ia nmentione di nhi s study .

I am quotin gnumber s 1.3 , 1.4 , 1. 5 and1.6 . MR . HAINES : I thin kw e wer e talkin gmor e o f th e analytica l variatio ntha t impact s a t thi s leve l —

DR . RABINOWITZ : Oh , I' m sorry . I misunderstoo d

> EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.6 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 MR . HAINES : —vis-a-vi s GSD s tha t Jeffre yha s c i i s c u s s

s e di r vt he ? r e ? p i o r t . DR . MUSHAK : A s a naside , I que s the-? analyt i varianc e yo u se e i nth e NHANE S dat a se t i s no t a VBry goo d analysis . Yo u recal l tha t wa s on e o f th e argument s a th e t i ni e ? t h i a t we r e

? us e ? dt o a r g u e c o unt e r p o i nt . 01"i e c CJL. I 1 d sho wtha t b yth e goo d qu a 1 i t yo f t h e NHANE S data-gatherin g analysis . I a mno t sur e yo u coul d ge t

a s mu c hwit ha n y othe r dat a set , an d c e r t a i n1 yn o t wi t hi t a s i t shifte d th e mea n fco r th e analytica l challeng e yo u have . I t i s jus t no t goin g t o d o it . DR . vo n LINDERN : I remembe r I preface d wha t I sai d wit ha guess . I t wa s no t quit e a guess , bu t I thin k yo u h i a ve d o n e a g o o d j o bi n er e a t in g t hi s s u bj e c t .

I thin k you r poin t i s wel l taken : it i s a ver y sensitiv e parameter . Tha t i s reall ywha t I fel t i s th e gis t t o indicat e that .

DR . RABINOWITZ : Thi s show s upagai nwhe nyo u actuall y

tr y t o se e i f thes e standard s are bein gmet . By lookin gat blood-lead , yo uca nse e fals e positive s o r fals e negatives . I t i s th e sam e proble m showin gupther e also , I guess , basically .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : Finally , o npag e 48 , th e EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 ques t i co

n: Ca nt hes e iiiodel i n g ap p r oa c he s w e hav e di s•: : u.sse db e a p p 1 i e dt o o t k t e r e xp o;: ; u r e s et s ? Thi s ma yno t b e a n all-inclusive- ? list , bu t i t give s som e example s o f what —

DR . MUSHAK : W e woul d wan t t o g o dow nth e list , wou. l c i we ? T hi s m

o de ? 1 ha s a hi ghpo t e nt i a 1 f o r m i s c l- t i e f i f th e Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc yan d othe r office s ge t thei r hand s o nit . I mea nthat .

MR . COHEN : Yes , please . DR . RABINOWITZ : I s i t wort hmakin ga lis t o f place s wher e i t shoul dno t b e used ?

MR . COHEN : Yes . DR . MUSHAK : I thin kt ha t i s almos t a ni nf i n i t e list . Th e thin gi s let' s g o wit hwha t the y have . I thin konth e Supe r Fun dsites , I thin kther e i s th e cautio nindicate dearlier . I f on e ha s som e ide a wher e co n is , fine : tha t is , i f yo uca nassum e tha t th e pre - andpost differentia l i s a t leas t i na linea r segmen t o f th e overal l c ur ve . Th e high-leve l intermitten t drinking-wate r exposures . I thin ktha t i s les s troublesome . I nothe r words , th e onl y

variabl e tha t yo unee dconcer nyoursel f wit h i s ho w muc hlea dwa s take nin : tha t is , i f yo uhav e a chil d consumptio nrat e durin gth e day—30 0 mill s i s on e numbe r 

# j EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 A1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 you , say , k , AV n . i i..

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_ . .'.

. . . ::l'::: - fjU O T Ii , IIte' ~j >-. C JI. - iin-r lUc: iI.

- c: i a t Iter eu n1 ess : yco uarewa y o ff1 1 o o s e levels , agai n yo u a re i n 11 1 a tn o n —1 i n e a rpi C J r i on , Yo u ma ywan t t o acid comment s t o that .

E-iu t I thin k fo r eve n 10 0 t o 20 0 microgram s pe r lite r excursion s fco r wate r lead , i t is ; probabl yokay . CHAIRMA NLARSON : I ha d som e comment s o n th e drinkin g water , whic hwer e tha t eve n thoug hI don' t doub t tha t it i s probabl yareasonabl e thin g t o d o i t i s no t clea r t o me ? tha t thi s particula r documen t lend s credenc e t o that .

I gues s i t does . T h e va1 i d a t io n e xercise s a s sume d

a constan t drinkin g wate r lea d leve l acros s al l th e differen t

areas . S o it reall ydi d no t tes t it .

DR . MUSHAK : Bu t th e origina l validatio n o f th e mode l wa s dietar ylead . Thos e wer e feedin g studies . Thos e wer e no t ai r chambers .

CHAIRMA NLARSON : S o fin d suppor t fo r it i non e o f th e sub-module s here .

DR . MUSHAK : I thin k yo u coul d probabl ymak e a goo d case . CHAIRMA NLARSON : I t i s implici t yo u hav e t o 

### J, EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 accep ttha tpa rti cu l a rstud yi n or attempte d model

. I n tha tsense , t l yr tc o accep tthi s larg e s doe s validat e that

.

t h e mode l i s tha ti tsta yi n som e linea rrange . Consec-jUen tly , al l o fyou rinput s an d Li p ta Ice s fro m differen t source s o fpathways ; shoul d giv e yo u som e indicatio n tha tyo u a re g o i n g fo rth i a tr n e ? d i u m i n th i p?

? 1 i n e ? a rra

n g e?

. Yo u ar e barrin g empirical - dat at o d o that

. MR

. COHEN : Okay

. DR . RABINOWITZ : Ar e ther e an ycaveat s beside s 1 i nea r i ty ? DF: . MUSHAK : O f course . I mean , b ydefinition , i f yo u hav e a

bolu s o f exposure s fro mdrinkin g wate r o r anythin g els e give nan di f yo u hav e you r typical , say , suburba nbran d ne wplumbin g 1ead-soldere d drinkin g fountai n an d otherwis e th e chil di s wel1-nourished , e t cetera , unles s yo u tes t tha t blood-lea dleve l andhav e i t persist , the nI a m no t sur e wha t th e toxicologica l poin t it .

Tha t is , yo uca ng o throug ha nexercis e andsa y th e child' s blood-lea dwoul dhav e bee ntha t high , bu t I don' t kno w wha t t o d o wit hi t i nterm s o f regulatin git .

DR . MAHAFFEY : T o me , ther e are lo t o f thing s t o b e considere dher e interm s o f th e pattern s o f exposure . I f yo uhav e a short-ter m hig hexposur e o f lea di nsomethin glik e drinkin gwater , a t leas t for children , I a m no t sur e w e

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 555-006 4P.6 5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 real

l yhav e t l o funderstandin q wha tth e physiologica l res:-poi't;; e is ; goin g t o be : i fthi s absorbed

.

I s i tmor e likel ysimpl yt o b e excrete d co rar &yo u g c o i n g tc

o hav e atra n s i e n th i g h b 1 o o cJ - •1 e a d ? I don' tthin k

w e know

. MR

. COHEN : W e don't , bu tI gue s •! - !- , c a f l ie Offic e o f Drinkin g Water , nevertheless , wante d t o kno wsomething .

Anythin g that , I think , w e woul d expor t t o othe r p r co g rams ; w e wCOL

I I d tr you r bess t t o couc hi t i n al l th e appropriat e uncertainties ; an d tr yt o mak e necessar y a d jus t merits .

I don' t thin k we woul dus e th e sam e exac t inpu t p ar a me t er s f co

r a 1 1 othe r applications . DR . MAHAFFEY : Again , a s yo u s;aid , i t i s explaine d i n th e se t o f circumstance s yo u note : 3 0 percen t o f th e var iat i on . I f somebod y want s t o tak e thi s withou t havin ga s muc hinformatio na s yo uhav e andsay , "Okay , w e ca nd o this, " an d "Gee , thi s tim e w e wil l explai n2 0 percent, " I don' t find tha t encouraging .

MR . COHEN : I f yo utr y t o predic t individua l blood-leads , i t i s right .

DR . MUSHAK : Wha t exactl y ar e yo uobjectin gto ? Ar e yo uobjectin gt o th e notio ntha t i f a chil ddran k10 0 microgram s o f lea di nwate r i na give nday , nothin gwoul d

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 24 2 5 happen ? I s tha t the e point , o r i s it tha t th e mode l is , mo t

u s-ef u 1 vis-a-vi s simila r calc : u 1 a t i or\

- s ; f co r a c hr co

n i c : J a i 1 y ch i 1 d exposure'" '

DR . MAHAFFEY : I gues; ; m yreac t i co n —anc i t h i s i r bein g Icin

d o f blun t abou t i t —i s tha t i f w e tak e peop l e wh o ar e goin g t o drin k wate r tha t i s hig hi n leead , it i s reasonable ? t o thin kth e blood-- ! ea d is;

- goin g t o g o up .

Ho w muc hd o w e reall y hav e t o prov e tha t i t onl y goes , u p5 percent , 3 percent ?

DR . MUSHAK : Bu t I thin kth e Offic e o f Drinkin g Wate r i s no t i nth e busines s o f saying , "Well , obviousl y i t goe s up. " I thin kthe y woul dlik e t o han ga numbe r of f o f that . Th e questio nis : Ca nth e mode l b e use dt o relat e Xmicrogram s i na single-sho t expcosurc ? wit ha chil dt o microgram s pe r deciliter ? Tha t i s th e issue .

O nth e fac e o f it , I woul dsa y tha t give ntha t b e yo ucoul dpu t aroun dit , yes . I thin kyo uhav e les s o f a proble m

wit hthi s tha ni nth e prio r case : th e Supe r Fun d site s an ds o on .

Whethe r o r no t yo uhav e anythin gusefu l ou t o f tha t I thin ki s th e mor e relevan t question . I f yo ucoul d convinc e th e Offic e o f Drinkin gWate r that , "Well , yes , w e ca ngiv e yo ua number ; bu t wha t i s it s mea t an dpotatoe s i n 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 11 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 terms ; o fregulation?" , tha tis ; anothe rthi n CHAIRMA N LAR S

! iPQrt M Tha tsumponen t apar to fou r

VlKOCiC- r- 1 "tci c

o u ri n c o de l va1 i cj a ti c o n , b u ti ti s certa i n 1 y 

### ind iv idua l3

. v J.

. _ . .. . X

. ^.

. r.\ estec j a; ; acomponent ; i n a fin d o f i tse l f . Certainl yther e i s evidenc e an d par t o f th e revie w proces s her e give s us ; suppor t fo r th e fac t tha t yo u ca n us e tha t appi roach , bu t i t woul d b e misleadin g t o -sa ytha t thi s revie wcommitte e gav e a calibrate d mode l t o th e Offic e o f D r i nk i ng Wa t e

? r . MR . HAINES : I thin k wha t I a mhearin g yo u sa yi s tha t an ytim e a mode l i s exported , thi s on e i nparticular , anybod yusin g i t ha s t o approac hi t i na ver ycautiou s manne r an d mak e sure , i n fact , th e mode l produce s plausibl e result s fo r th e applicatio n fo r whic hi t i s bein g used .

DR . MAHAFFEY : I f on e wante d t o stud ylea d i n drinkin g water , ther e ar e studie s tha t hav e bee ncarrie d ou t i nScotlan d tha t hav e looke d a t lea d i ndrinkin g water .

MR . COHEN : Yes . DR . MAHAFFEY : Why no t d o that ? MR . COHEN : The y us e tha t wher e the y can . DR . MUSHAK : Yo uca npos e tha t i nrelatio nt o thi s model . Yo uhav e th e smelte r studies . Yo uhav e Eas t Helena , e t cetera . Why

d o i t i naggregate/disaggregat e models ? Why d o i t biokinetically ?

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 23 24 25 16 (

•T"

. !--'-i ! •••-•)

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. J

. J

. Vd O R ? t

D R , MUSl-lAI:: : Tha t i s quit e fixed , hi . g hbu t i. ~ o nc e nt i

* ate d. C l- l A3 ! RMAN!.... AR3 ON : Ar e a r t yC J f t he s e 1 i s t s o r o t he r item s blinkin g ou t a t yo u as ; bein g particularl ydange r COL I s ; a p p 1 1 c a t i coi"is;':- '

DR . MAHAFFEY : Wha t abou t relativ e rankin g o f

, 4 4 .ex... . .... ... dii i t-. j

rt.-ri LL i I.. I i lutant s base d o n dail yintak e estimate ;

DR . MUSHAK : I woul dthin ktha t tha t i s somewher e be ? t w e e n40 , 00 0 a nd50 , 00 0 fee t hig hu pt h i ere? . [Laughte r 1 DR . MUSHAK : An drising , yes . M R . HAI N

E 3 : A

s f a r a s

; m o de lin gi s ce

o nc e r ne d, ther e i s n o wa y w e ca m

produc e a mode l tha t ca nhav e a n i di o t -p r o o f c a po ni t .

[Laughte r I

I MR . HAINES : Wha t happen s i s tha t i f th e model s ar e use db y

office s withi nth e agency , th e us e o f thos e model s an dth e appropriatenes s o f th e inpu t parameter s wil l b e examine db y

advisor y

committee s a s thi s us e ha s been , an d th e Offic e o f Drinkin gWater' s us e o f th e mode l wil l b e reviewe db y

SAB . S o I thin kth e appropriatenes s o f th e mode l fo r

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4)

is,-- Z- c*y~'.~ 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 12 1 3 14 1 5 16 1 7 1 8 19 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 1 t. p / ' th e air~lea d standard s i s wha t w e probabl yca n appropriatel y focu s o nrigh t no wan d le t othe r peopl e worr yabou t th e othe r ap p 1 i c a t i cons .

I thin k w e trie d t o provid e a clea r statemen t o f

ou r ow nreservation s abou t th e applicabilit yan d th e appropriateness; ; o f th e parameters , an d w e hav e bee n responsibl e i nou r us e o f those? . Tha t is . as ; muc ha s w e ca n d o fo r anybody .

CHAIRMA N

LARSON : I thin kther e i s als o som e pr e s s ur e t o ge t r e ? s e ? r vat i o n s o n th e r e c c o r dearly . I t ma y wel l tur nou t tha t som e subsequen t committe e usin gthi s dat a c a nc om e u pwit hsome t hi ng .

MR . COHEN : I t i s lik e anythin gels e i nth e scientifi c literature .

CHAIRMA N

LARSON : I t i s relativ e t o th e poin t i n t i me . DR . RABINOWITZ : I s ther e somewher e i nther e tha t yo usa y

thi s shoul dno t b e use dfo r othe r pollutants ? [Laughte r 1 DR . MAHAFFEY : I woul dsa y tha t th e Clea nAi r Scienc e Advisor y Efoardappear s t o hav e a lo t mor e lea d consultant s t o i t tha nsom e o f th e others . S o I thin kth e amoun t o f lea drevie w i nth e ai r par t i s base do n observation , i t seems , mor e tha nsom e other s have .

S o whil e w e canno t defen dthi s mode l agains t othe r

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 in c i.i

r s icons ; co

r oth e lo nee d tc: - bea r i n

i na p p r c

o pr i ac e i ..

• s ; e s; , w e u c h e ai r par? ; ha s bee n ver ymuc hreviewed . MR . HAINES : M ygues s cor . thi s topic , fro mm y

!I-.-. ' r ::::

• Ut : '.. . I , J . V I

e fro m hea r i n g u s tryin g 1 1 o s a J

J J . S th e S ut nc c o min itte ew o u1 dqo fo r t h r a r as , quote , exportin g th t

mcooe i : tha t you r vie wi s i t s ho uI d b e u n dert a l c e nwi t h

i c a u t i c

o n b yothe r program s an d appropriatel yreviewe d a s t o it s applicabilit yacros s th e board .

I thin kyo ufolk s ca npu t the ? cautionar y not e o n thi s an d m a k e i t clea r t ha t i t skioui dno t b e endorsemen t fo r purpose s i t withi nth e ai r standards . Tha t shoul dno t b e construe da s a blanke t endorsemen t t o al l othe r applications .

I thin ktha t i s th e poin t yo uare tryin gt o ge t across . I thin ktha t i s a reasonabl e prospectus .

CHAIRMA N

LARSON : I hav e mad e u pmy ow nlist , bu t are ther e an y

othe r point s tha t yo uwoul dlik e t o rais e tha t yo uthin kimpac t th e questio no f whethe r o r no t thi s become s a nadequat e supplement , i f yo uwill , t o lookin ga t th e alternat e air-qualit y standards , give nal l th e caveat s o f thi s writte nsummary ?

I a m no t sur e everybod y i s please dwit hit , bu t

ar e ther e an y

point s I hav e missed ? G o ahead . DR . RABINOWITZ : I jus t ha da wis htha t whe nth e result s o f th e calculation s o f thes e model s ar e presente d 

# J EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.7 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 ! " i e s e C ; blood-1ea d t o that , bu tth e percentag e n l ytw o significan tfigu r

[Laughte rI i MR

. COHEN : 7 sgre e on , give n the ? l- i i es t o r y o f ho wsom e o f ou r standard s hav e bee n set s th e ,00 5 percen t o f th e population , fco r example? . CHAIRMA NLARSON : D o yo u hav e anythin g else ? MR . HAINES : I jus t wan t t o mak e sur e tha t I a m ur i des r s t a ndi ng w

h i a t I a mhe?a

r i n g i nsunim a t i o n . Gc o in g do w

n you r lis t o f qu e s t i o ns , a s fa r a s ; ou r respons e t o comment s pose db y th e Subcommittee , I thin kI a m readin gyo ua s sayin gwha t Jef f ha s lai dout : Th e wa y i n whic hw e pla nt o approac hthes e i s appropriat e an dadequate-? .

Wit hrespec t t o th e models , I a m readin gthe ? Subcommitte e a s sayin gth e applicatio no f th e biokineti c mode l f o r c hi 1 dr e nha s a r e ? a s c o na b1 e

? a ppr o a c hf o r e ? s t i . m a t i ng chil dblood-lead .

Whe ni t come s t o females , ther e i s a grea t conc er n ove r th e appropriatenes s o f th e approach . W e shoul dmak e thi s clea r andtr y t o explor e any

othe r way s w e ca naddres s tha t i na bette r fashion .

Wher e I a

m drawin gth e lin e is—an dthi s i s why I a m comin gdownt o th e point—tha t on e interpretatio nis : D o wha t w e lai dout ; se e i f we hav e augmente dth e Yugoslavia n dat a or an y

othe r sources ; bu t mak e i t very clea r that , base d

EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4P.7 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 co n adul tmales; , no tieniales , e tcete t ci i s cus s

exposui * e to qua3

. i ta ti re se ts

,•••!,•-,,-. ? •* - *•-•;•:. , 1 •• ' l..- 1 a , c o r a 1 1 e r na . t i -rel yc o n1 y s-t s an d don' t tr yt o

a p p r c o p r i at e t c

o c o I s . quan t .itat e becaus e w e dor

CHAIRMA NLARSON : I coul d ge t wrong , bu t I go t th e latte r as ; th e sens e o f th e Subcommittee .

MR: . HAINES : Okay . Tha t i s wh yI a mposin g it . DR . MAHAFFEY : An d strik e th e wor d "female " an d us e "pregnan t woman " be?cause ? i t i s no t females , pe r ses .

MR . HAINES : I recogniz e that . DR . MAHAFFEY : T he o c c upat i o na 1 pe s o p1 e ha v

e ? a whoi e lo t o f trouble ? wit hthat .

MR . HAINES : Okay . [Laughte r 1 MR . HAINES : Inus e o f DSD s an dthat , I thin kw e ha.v e lai dou t a range . I thin kth e approac hi s agree dt o by the r Subcommittee .

CHAIRMAN

LARSON : W e ha dsom e discussio nabou t a coupl e o f thos e ke y parameter s tha t g o wit hth e biokineti c model , jus t lookin ga t th e sensitivit y analysi s o nth e predicte dsoi1-1ead .

I gues s thos e are th e tw o issue s tha t wer e brough t upanddiscussed .

Anybod y

else ? DR . McLAMB : I wa s no t bein gfacetiou s abou t estimatin gblood-lead s i nadul t males . I woul dlik e t o kno w EXECUTIV E COUR T REPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4• '

t

/



### H

u p &" p &L 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 24 25 T H *• ]

I

4 - - 1 whethe ro rne tw e ar e gc-i;"-- , to . T•;• ; vi--'-"--- . p"ic'p-i : .•- " .--;••; •t" •it, . CHAIRMA N LARSON : W e kpav e no tdiscusse d tha t fully

. I gLitss s w e wer e com'! ' o rtab l e tha tther e was ; adeuquat e d atafc

o rg c o in g ahea d wit h 1 1 - i a tap p rcoach

. DR

. McLAMB : Okay

.

. - •| p Ar.- . K. . * p. . i t.. . r- , '- •-- , p.p. , i p •i i . . > ,r . p ... . i. . , _. : L-h H

. i fp.iif-ip- l L

. r i r- . :r , i..p i - ; Wt- ; W. LJ

. .I

. U ra i K, " •U I I I e I-

ri .1 1 l y, hopefully , t o th e poin ttha tw e ca n pass ; aroun d her e b ywa y o fsummarisin g wha tw e jus tci i scus;;sd , scom e guidance

.

Thank ' yo u al l fo rpatientl ymesetin g her e thi s arte rn o con . MR

. HAINES : I wan tt o than k th e Subcommitte e m e m ber s fc

o rw0 rk

i n g k va rd 0 n th i s . CHAIRMA N LARSON : Wit h that , w e cal l th e meetin g adjourned

. [ A t4:0 5 p.m. , th e meetin g wa s .concluded. 1

i

EXECUTIV E COUR TREPORTER S (301 ) 565-006 4 

# 1