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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1993 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report Regular Report

Report. Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1992 Fri., Jan. 29 Thurs., Feb. 4
January 1993 Wed., Feb. 24 Thurs., Mar. 4
February 1993 Wed., Mar. 24 Wed., Mar. 31
March 1993 Fri., Apr. 23 Fri., Apr. 30
April 1993 Wed., May 26 Fri., June 4
May 1993 Wed., June 23 Wed., June 30
June 1993 Wed., July 28 Thurs., Aug. 5
July 1993 Wed., Aug. 25 Thur., Sept. 2
August 1993 Fri., Sept. 24 Fri., Oct. 1
September 1993 Wed., Oct. 27 Thur., Nov. 4
October 1993 Wed., Nov. 24 Fri., Dec. 3
November 1993 Thur., Dec. 23

The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders press
release can be faxed to you on the day of issue at a cost of $120
per year. The fee is to cover the subscription service, wire
transmission, and administrative costs. If you wish to subscribe
to this service, or would like more information, please call
Sandy Sollinger at (301) 763-2604.



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | utitsm
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 PUR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth December 23, 1992
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB92-271
M3-1(92)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
November 1992
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $2.4 billion or 1.9 percent to $122.9 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows increases of 4.6 percent in October and 0.4
percent in September. Excluding defense, new orders were down $1.9 billion or 1.6 percent. New orders without
transportation equipment increased $0.9 billion or 1.0 percent.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $3.3 billion or 10.2 percent to $29.2 billion, as a decrease
in aircraft and parts more than offset an increase in motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 21.3 percent increase in October.
Electronic and other electrical equipment was down $0.7 billion or 3.5 percent to $18.2 billion. Industrial machinery and
equipment had the largest increase, up $1.0 billion or 4.6 percent to $21.6 billion, following a 2.7 percent decline in October.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in November increased $2.4 billion or 1.9 percent to $127.5 billion, following a 0.2 percent
decrease in October. Excluding defense, shipments were up $2.5 billion or 2.1 percent. Without transportation equipment,
shipments increased $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $1.3 billion or 3.9

ercent to $33.7 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment was up
$12 billion or 5.7 percent to $21.9 billion. The largest decrease was in electronic and other electrical equipment, down $0.3
billion or 1.7 percent to $18.2 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in November decreased $4.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $448.7 billion, the lowest level
since $440.7 billion in November 1988. This is the fourteenth decline in the last fifteen months. Excluding defense, unfilled
orders were down $4.1 billion or 1.3 percent. Without transportation equipment, unfilled orders declined $0.1 billion. The
largest decrease was in transportation equipment, down $4.5 billion or 1.8 percent to $244.7 billion, due to aircraft and parts
and shipbuilding and tanks. Transportation equipment has declined in thirteen of the last fifteen months and is at the lowest
level since $243.1 billion in September 1989. Primary metals was down $0.4 billion or 2.2 percent to $19.5 billion, and industrial
machinery and equipment declined $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $50.9 billion.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in November decreased $3.1 billion or 9.7 percent to $28.6 billion. The
November decrease follows a 3.5 percent increase in October. Shipments were up $1.0 billion or 3.2 percent to $32.8 billion,
following a 1.0 percent decrease in October. Unfilled orders, down $4.2 billion or 1.9 percent to $219.4 billion, have declined
for eight consecutive months and are at the lowest level since December 1989, Excluding aircraft and parts, nondefense new
orders increased 0.3 percent, shipments were up 2.1 percent, and unfilled orders declined 0.7 percent.

New orders for defense were down $0.5 billion or 6.8 percent to $7.0 billion as decreases in aircraft and parts and
communication equipment more than offset an increase in search and navigation equipment. The November decrease follows
a 44.4 percent increase in October. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.5 percent to $7.5 billion, following an 8.6 percent
decrease in October. Unfilled orders declined $0.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $127.8 billion. Unfilled orders have declined in
fourteen of the last fifteen months and are at the lowest level since $123.2 billion in February 1984.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published December 31, 1992. The advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled
for January 29, 1993. This report is available on the day of issue through the nt of Commeree’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-
3870) and through the Census Bureau's online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from
Dialog -800- ‘and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). ‘The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-763-2074)



i

Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Noy, Oct, Sept.| Oct | Sept. | Aug Noy, Oct, Nov. | change
19924 19924 393 | Nov? Get] “Sept 1 1992 1991 | Nov.92/91
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments 127516 | 125132 | 125346| +19] -02| +16] 127489] 131374) 122547] +40
New orders ©. 1! 122/399 | 125/288 119801] 19] +46) +04 060 | 130/449] 120173] +24
Unfilled orders: | 448,749 | 453366 | 453210] “10 00} 12] 446/369} 4507798 | 481/821 74
Excluding defense
‘Shipments... - 120013} 17sis} i707] +21] +04] +12] 119503] 123839] 34] +54
New orders |.) 115,939 | 117824] 1tdje31 | 16] $28] +15] 114732] 122/540] 113776] +08
Unfilled orders’ || | 320/946 | 3251 32474 | = 13] $0.1] 07 | 318337] 323108 | 339%265, 62
With unfilled orders :
Shipments.» 103,436 | 102,017 | 102,758] +14 -07| +21] 103,730] 105,669] 10113] +26
New orders 819} 102173] 97213} 7-33] +54] +06 301 | 104744 | 98739 | 406

Primary metals :

Shipments 10.925| 10,749] 10878] +16 04} 1ogis| 11372] 19.685 | #12
New orders || 10,486 | 10,389 91385 | +09 113} 10/608] 101537 | 10,617 01
Unfilled orders 19499 | 1938] 20298 | 2.2 47{ 18844} 197051} 215126 | «108

Industrial machi and ipment :

Shipments . mnery . oan ent . 21,909 20,721 21,060 +5.7 0.6 21,150 20,743 19,579 +8.0

New orders. . 1,599 20,648 21,222 +46 +33 20,935 20,679 19,154 +9.3

Unfilled orders’ 50949 | 51259) 51332 | “06 +03 0/908 1124 3/914 56

18,203 18524] 18199 a7] +18] +52] 18,745) 18638] 17,751 +56

18245 | 18905] 18488) 35] +23] +66] 18,650) 19025] 17432] +70

4279 | 42677 | 42'296 | +01] =«+09) +07) azize3 | 2358 | 411433 | +200

ee caen cauiPment 3372] 32455] 31579] +39] +28] 03] 34109] 35234] 32,960 435

Neworders 20020 291196 | _32's17 | 26814 | 102] +213) 36] 303385] 35557] _33'514 93

Unfilled orders’ || am 726 | 2497242] 249180] 18 00} = S| aa | 2a8;41 1348 94
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?

Totals ipments 40258 | 39,340] 40,362 25] +37] 39671] 38310] — 39,725 01
Nee ocdes oo 35,523 9 35,741 +94] +33) 35927] 38517] 381651 -70
Uae bers | 179} 351.914 | 352155 O01) “13 | 347/408 | 351,152 | 380,028 86
Nondefense :

32,755 | 31,726] 32,033 10] +28] 31,685 , 30,589] +36

Shipments » 28,563 31,635 30571 +35| +86 5 608 327254 “14.4
Dates cnuers 219376 | 2231568 | 2237659 dO] "06 | 2197376 | 223462 | 237472 76
Exqluding aircraft and parts : 26,520 , 26,467 19} +34] sre] 25,432] 24129] +66
Shipments... -- -| 251993 | 25/920 ‘ 18) +65} 251295} 25;311| 23435] +79
New orders, R298 | 7825) BIS or] “ol | 722251 Rng ¥ 44
Defense : 7,503 7,614 8,329 AS 86] +76 7,986 7,540 9,136 +126
Shipments 61960 7464 S170| 6B{ +444) 200 81328 7309 6397} £302
New orders 127803 | 128346 | 128496 | “0.4 01] “24 | 128,032] 127690] 142556] “102

(NA) Not available. " Revised,

1 Shipments and new orders are t
{or trading-day or calendar-month variations,

2 Based on advance sample.

totals for the petiod and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted

3 The Capital Goods industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment,
metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, reftigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and
distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and
tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

ind Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
industry Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1991-| Year ago Nov. ] Nov. 1991-| Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1991-
Nov. 1991 | 1987-1991 | Oct. 1992| Nov. 1991] 1987-1991] Get. 1992| Nov. 1991] 1987-1991 | Oct. 1992
Durable goods . 0.0 01 03 02 03 07 01 O1 O1
Primary metals... | ae 04 07 02 06 09 08 01 02 03
Industrial machinery and equipment 02 09 07 0s 09 09 03 03 02

Blectronic and other

electrical equipment... 04 03 06 02 0s 08 1 01 01
‘Transportation equipment || 04 03 07 04 03 17 00 0.0 02
Nondefense capital goods ... 02 03 08 04 0s 16 1 Ot 02
Defense capital goods 09 09 1S 15 24 64 0.0 01 02

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without



Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

150 150
New Orders
140 + Shipments |] 140
130 + 4 130
120 120
110 F 4 110
100 4 1 1 1 i i 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 100
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1990-Nov. 1992
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45

New Orders

aan Shipments | 40

25 UL 1 1 4 L n L 1 1 1 L 1 1} 95

Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1990 - Nov, 1992

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.