U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-04

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

May 26, 2004

CB-04-84

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

April 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $5.7 billion or 2.9 percent to $191.3 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 5.7 percent March increase. Excluding

transportation, new orders decreased 2.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.4 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 12.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down following two consecutive increases, had the largest decrease, $2.7 billion or 4.7 percent to

$54.5 billion. Computers and Electronic Products, down following four consecutive increases, decreased $1.4 billion or 4.1

percent to $31.7 billion. 

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in April, down following 2 consecutive increases, decreased $1.7 billion or 0.8

percent to $195.3 billion. This followed a 4.3 percent March increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2004 were 10.8 percent

above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $2.2 billion or 3.9 percent to 54.0 billion. 

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in April, up eight of the last nine months, increased $3.0 billion or

0.6 percent to $520.4 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase.

Fabricated metal products increased $1.1 billion or 2.6 percent to $43.9 billion. 

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in April, up five consecutive months, increased $1.3 billion or 0.5 percent to

$266.9 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent March increase.

Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $0.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $68.3 billion. 

Primary metals, up six consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $18.3 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in April decreased $1.0 billion or 10.9 percent to $8.4 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $8.2 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $141.6

billion. Inventories decreased $0.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $19.5 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in April decreased $1.7 billion or 2.7 percent to $62.9

billion. Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $62.0 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to

$223.9 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $105.7 billion.

! REVISED MARCH DATA Revised seasonally adjusted March figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders,

$362.2 billion (revised from $360.7 billion); shipments, $362.1 billion (revised from $361.3 billion); unfilled orders, $517.4

billion (revised from $516.8 billion); and total inventories, $444.5 billion (revised from $444.3 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published June 3, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for May is

scheduled for June 24 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Apr Mar Feb Mar - Feb - Jan - Apr Mar Apr Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Apr 2 Mar r Feb 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 195,267 196,935 188,798 -0.8 4.3 1.4 193,257 217,853 170,450 761,361 686,995 10.8

 New Orders 4

.............................. 191,341 196,993 186,419 -2.9 5.7 3.9 190,376 219,803 166,129 761,845 677,572 12.4

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 141,286 140,773 133,367 0.4 5.6 -0.9 138,968 153,439 121,198 539,885 482,672 11.9

 New Orders 4.............................. 136,795 139,749 131,430 -2.1 6.3 1.1 136,241 152,424 115,903 536,574 467,842 14.7

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 185,855 187,073 177,954 -0.7 5.1 0.7 184,262 207,080 162,167 723,243 653,962 10.6

 New Orders 4.............................. 181,829 186,374 175,122 -2.4 6.4 3.1 180,982 205,543 155,814 716,484 634,803 12.9

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 131,851 132,712 127,525 -0.6 4.1 0.4 130,314 146,331 115,746 513,933 466,767 10.1

 New Orders 4.............................. 134,834 139,564 131,876 -3.4 5.8 3.9 133,845 155,535 116,727 540,929 479,477 12.8

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 13,142 13,208 12,051 -0.5 9.6 2.0 13,676 14,250 11,215 51,750 44,807 15.5

 New Orders.............................. 13,106 13,837 12,753 -5.3 8.5 4.8 13,431 15,126 10,993 54,558 44,843 21.7

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 22,748 22,791 20,553 -0.2 10.9 -1.8 22,744 23,782 20,168 86,051 80,149 7.4

 New Orders.............................. 23,867 24,142 21,925 -1.1 10.1 -0.6 23,927 25,379 19,755 92,356 79,729 15.8

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 23,896 23,872 22,530 0.1 6.0 -0.5 25,164 27,228 21,404 93,590 82,627 13.3

 New Orders.............................. 23,893 25,116 23,903 -4.9 5.1 4.2 25,667 28,646 21,363 98,851 83,891 17.8

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 38,154 37,810 37,192 0.9 1.7 -1.9 34,522 43,049 29,941 144,871 125,064 15.8

 New Orders 4.............................. 31,683 33,042 31,702 -4.1 4.2 1.6 29,201 37,749 25,131 124,732 108,303 15.2

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,805 8,282 8,167 6.3 1.4 -2.7 7,658 9,881 6,431 31,563 26,224 20.4

 New Orders.............................. 8,481 8,048 8,104 5.4 -0.7 2.2 7,136 9,631 6,207 30,268 25,907 16.8 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 7,019 6,724 6,697 4.4 0.4 -5.5 6,333 7,870 5,112 26,062 22,462 16.0

 New Orders.............................. 7,650 6,562 7,136 16.6 -8.0 4.1 7,581 7,734 6,353 28,449 27,930 1.9

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 6,909 6,794 6,730 1.7 1.0 3.6 6,412 7,254 5,302 26,512 22,133 19.8

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,667 8,630 8,457 0.4 2.0 -1.0 8,395 9,447 8,076 33,218 32,327 2.8

 New Orders.............................. 9,266 8,958 8,826 3.4 1.5 3.1 9,058 9,643 8,057 34,890 32,630 6.9

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 53,981 56,162 55,431 -3.9 1.3 7.6 54,289 64,414 49,252 221,476 204,323 8.4

 New Orders.............................. 54,546 57,244 54,989 -4.7 4.1 11.0 54,135 67,379 50,226 225,271 209,730 7.4

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 39,065 40,419 38,878 -3.3 4.0 5.2 40,494 46,403 36,320 162,033 149,894 8.1

 New Orders.............................. 39,288 40,566 39,186 -3.2 3.5 6.1 40,487 46,480 36,110 163,001 150,210 8.5 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,431 5,880 5,637 -7.6 4.3 8.4 4,832 7,219 4,794 21,582 21,303 1.3

 New Orders.............................. 5,769 6,387 5,501 -9.7 16.1 33.7 4,408 7,413 4,154 20,716 16,969 22.1

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,509 3,958 4,868 -11.3 -18.7 38.0 3,250 4,232 2,882 14,859 11,898 24.9

 New Orders.............................. 2,394 2,541 3,622 -5.8 -29.8 49.9 2,547 4,205 4,685 13,131 16,777 -21.7

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 34,679 34,462 32,584 0.6 5.8 -0.5 34,467 35,683 30,394 130,405 117,698 10.8

 New Orders.............................. 34,980 34,654 32,321 0.9 7.2 -2.1 34,957 35,881 30,604 131,187 118,446 10.8

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 70,205 70,192 69,289 0.0 1.3 1.5 67,451 80,116 59,033 271,282 239,808 13.1

 New Orders.............................. 71,251 74,018 71,319 -3.7 3.8 5.8 68,967 86,062 61,824 285,611 253,308 12.8

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 62,047 61,976 59,993 0.1 3.3 -0.3 59,590 71,096 51,917 238,465 211,555 12.7

 New Orders.............................. 62,871 64,618 60,967 -2.7 6.0 4.1 60,804 73,366 52,839 245,332 216,014 13.6

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 59,714 59,291 57,283 0.7 3.5 -1.7 57,635 67,632 50,106 229,271 202,422 13.3

 New Orders......................... 60,152 62,318 58,778 -3.5 6.0 2.3 59,225 70,600 51,336 237,943 210,467 13.1

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,158 8,216 9,296 -0.7 -11.6 15.1 7,861 9,020 7,116 32,817 28,253 16.2

 New Orders.............................. 8,380 9,400 10,352 -10.9 -9.2 17.0 8,163 12,696 8,985 40,279 37,294 8.0

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Apr Mar Feb Mar - Feb - Jan - Apr Mar Apr 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Apr 2 Mar r Feb 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 520,370 517,387 510,535 0.6 1.3 0.9 529,412 525,881 493,389 7.3

 Total Inventories....................... 266,909 265,599 264,550 0.5 0.4 0.5 268,969 264,932 270,318 -0.5

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 269,221 266,803 261,033 0.9 2.2 1.9 274,336 270,651 243,566 12.6

 Total Inventories....................... 198,611 197,606 196,417 0.5 0.6 0.5 200,456 197,630 201,822 -0.7

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 359,969 357,086 350,991 0.8 1.7 1.1 364,212 361,080 339,108 7.4

 Total Inventories....................... 242,687 241,283 240,347 0.6 0.4 0.5 244,757 240,966 247,425 -1.1

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 520,370 517,387 510,535 0.6 1.3 0.9 529,412 525,881 493,389 7.3

 Total Inventories....................... 208,143 206,964 206,213 0.6 0.4 0.4 209,411 206,003 212,561 -1.5

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 18,134 18,170 17,541 -0.2 3.6 4.2 18,810 19,055 14,495 29.8

 Total Inventories....................... 18,309 18,059 17,746 1.4 1.8 1.4 18,274 17,956 18,924 -3.4

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 43,916 42,797 41,446 2.6 3.3 3.4 44,326 43,143 36,480 21.5

 Total Inventories....................... 31,591 31,432 31,377 0.5 0.2 1.4 31,962 31,876 31,826 0.4

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 46,802 46,805 45,561 0.0 2.7 3.1 48,143 47,640 43,684 10.2

 Total Inventories....................... 42,543 42,488 42,180 0.1 0.7 0.8 42,940 42,778 42,825 0.3

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 133,023 132,585 130,559 0.3 1.6 1.0 135,529 134,438 124,189 9.1

 Total Inventories....................... 47,380 47,128 46,833 0.5 0.6 -0.2 47,674 46,086 49,018 -2.7

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 7,762 8,086 8,320 -4.0 -2.8 -0.8 7,510 8,032 7,807 -3.8

 Total Inventories....................... 5,804 5,858 5,946 -0.9 -1.5 -1.4 5,806 5,609 6,216 -6.6 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 50,939 50,308 50,470 1.3 -0.3 0.9 52,156 50,908 50,215 3.9

 Total Inventories....................... 10,712 10,562 10,524 1.4 0.4 -0.1 10,757 10,319 11,813 -8.9

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,937 14,338 14,010 4.2 2.3 2.7 15,087 14,424 14,095 7.0

 Total Inventories....................... 12,299 12,335 12,275 -0.3 0.5 -1.7 12,707 12,535 12,973 -2.1

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 251,149 250,584 249,502 0.2 0.4 -0.2 255,076 255,230 249,823 2.1

 Total Inventories....................... 68,298 67,993 68,133 0.4 -0.2 0.4 68,513 67,302 68,496 0.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,160 13,937 13,790 1.6 1.1 2.3 14,588 14,595 12,449 17.2

 Total Inventories....................... 21,125 21,064 20,947 0.3 0.6 0.6 21,357 21,067 20,675 3.3 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 104,298 103,960 103,453 0.3 0.5 -0.1 104,205 104,629 107,160 -2.8

 Total Inventories....................... 23,769 23,610 23,915 0.7 -1.3 -0.2 23,757 23,225 25,954 -8.5

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 57,243 58,358 59,775 -1.9 -2.4 -2.0 59,042 59,745 60,843 -3.0

 Total Inventories....................... 11,604 11,625 11,498 -0.2 1.1 -0.1 11,540 11,409 10,478 10.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,409 12,108 11,916 2.5 1.6 -2.2 12,441 11,951 10,623 17.1

 Total Inventories....................... 46,489 46,164 46,006 0.7 0.3 0.8 46,899 46,399 46,256 1.4

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 365,557 364,511 360,685 0.3 1.1 0.6 372,126 370,610 352,211 5.7

 Total Inventories....................... 125,160 125,028 124,942 0.1 0.1 0.3 125,808 124,011 128,059 -1.8

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 223,921 223,097 220,455 0.4 1.2 0.4 226,414 225,200 217,861 3.9

 Total Inventories....................... 105,651 105,315 105,241 0.3 0.1 0.2 106,219 104,502 109,557 -3.0

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 145,370 144,932 141,905 0.3 2.1 1.1 147,956 146,366 136,316 8.5

 Total Inventories.................. 88,534 88,325 88,090 0.2 0.3 0.2 89,138 87,771 90,660 -1.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 141,636 141,414 140,230 0.2 0.8 0.8 145,712 145,410 134,350 8.5

 Total Inventories....................... 19,509 19,713 19,701 -1.0 0.1 1.3 19,589 19,509 18,502 5.9

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.