TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. I NTRODUCTION

**1.1 P**  **URPOSE OF**  **THE DOCUMENT**  **.........................................................1­1**

**1.2 O**  **VERVIEW OF**  **THE APPLIANCES**  **AND COMMERCIAL** 

**EQUIPMENT STANDARDS**  **PROGRAM.............................................1­1**

**1.3 O**  **VERVIEW OF**  **THE SUBCATEGORIES**  **OF LAMPS**  **COVERED ...1­2** 

**1.4 P**  **ROCESS FOR**  **SETTING ENERGY**  **CONERVATION**

**STANDARDS..........................................................................................1­4**

**1.5 S**  **TRUCTURE OF**  **THE DOCUMENT....................................................1­7** 

CHAPTER 2. A NALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

**2.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................2­1** 

**2.2 B**  **ACKGROUND .....................................................................................2­4** 

**2.3 M**  **ARKET AND**  **TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT**  **................................2­4**

**2.3.1 M**  **arket Assessment**  **..................................................................................2­4**

**2.3.2 Te**  **chnology Assessment...........................................................................2­4** 

**2.3.3 P**  **roduct Classes**  **........................................................................................2­5**

**2.4 S**  **CREENING ANALYSIS**  **......................................................................2­5**

**2.5 ENG**  **INEERING ANALYSIS..................................................................2­5** 

**2.5.1 R**  **epresentative Product**  **Classes ...............................................................2­5** 

**2.5.2 S**  **elected Baseline**  **Lamps .........................................................................2­5** 

**2.5.3 I**  **dentified Lamps**  **and Ballast**  **Designs .....................................................2­6** 

**2.5.4 D**  **eveloped Candidate**  **Standard Level......................................................2­6** 

**2.6 ENER**  **GY USE**  **CHARACTERIZATION ...............................................2­6** 

**2.7 P**  **RODUCT PRICE**  **DETERMINATION ................................................2­7** 

**2.8 LI**  **FE­CYCLE COST**  **AND PAYBACK**  **PERIOD ANALYSIS**  **.............2­7**

**2.9 NA**  **TIONAL IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS ........................................................2­8** 

**2.9.1 Na**  **tional Energy**  **Savings Analysis...........................................................2­8** 

**2.9.2 Ne**  **t Present**  **Value Analysis**  **.....................................................................2­8**

**2.9.3 Ef**  **ficiency Scenarios**  **and Trends**  **.............................................................2­9**

**2.10 LI**  **FE­CYCLE COST**  **SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS**  **...................................2­10**

**2.11 M**  **ANUFACTURER IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS............................................2­10**

**2.12 U**  **TILITY IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS .............................................................2­10** 

**2.13 ENV**  **IRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT**  **....................................................2­11**

**2.14 EM**  **PLOYMENT IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS .................................................2­11** 

**2.15 R**  **EGULATORY IMPACT**  **ANALYSIS .................................................2­12** 

**2.16 D**  **EPARTMENT OF**  **JUSTICE REVIEW**  **...............................................2­12**

**1**CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

**3.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................3­1** 

**3.1.1 D**  **efinitions................................................................................................3­1**

**3.1.1.1 F**  **luorescent Lamps**  **...................................................................................3­1**

**3.1.1.2 G**  **eneral Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................3­2**

**3.1.1.3 I**  **ncandescent Reflector**  **Lamps .................................................................3­3** 

**3.2 M**  **ARKET ASSESSMENT**  **......................................................................3­4**

**3.2.1 Tr**  **ade Association**  **....................................................................................3­4**

**3.2.2 M**  **anufacturers and**  **Market Share.............................................................3­5** 

**3.2.2.1 S**  **mall Businesses......................................................................................3­6** 

**3.2.3 R**  **egulatory Programs**  **...............................................................................3­7**

**3.2.3.1 F**  **ederal Energy**  **Conservation Standards**  **..................................................3­7**

**3.2.3.2 C**  **anadian Energy**  **Efficiency Standards**  **...................................................3­10**

**3.2.4 No**  **n­Regulatory Initiatives.......................................................................3­12** 

**3.2.4.1 F**  **ederal Energy**  **Management Program**  **....................................................3­12**

**3.2.4.2 C**  **onsortium for**  **Energy Efficiency...........................................................3­12** 

**3.2.4.3 En**  **ergy Efficient**  **Commercial Building**  **Deduction..................................3­12**

**3.2.4.4 No**  **rtheast Energy**  **Efficiency Partnerships**  **...............................................3­13**

**3.2.5 H**  **istorical Shipments................................................................................3­13** 

**3.3 TEC**  **HNOLOGY ASSESSMENT............................................................3­16** 

**3.3.1 G**  **eneral Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................3­16**

**3.3.1.1 H**  **ighly Emissive**  **Electrode Coatings**  **.......................................................3­18**

**3.3.1.2 H**  **igher Efficiency**  **Lamp Fill**  **Gas Composition**  **.......................................3­18**

**3.3.1.3 H**  **igher Efficiency**  **Phosphors ...................................................................3­20** 

**3.3.1.4 G**  **lass Coatings**  **.........................................................................................3­25**

**3.3.1.5 H**  **igher Efficiency**  **Lamp Diameter...........................................................3­25** 

**3.3.1.6 M**  **ulti­Photon Phosphors**  **..........................................................................3­26**

**3.3.2 I**  **ncandescent Reflector**  **Lamps .................................................................3­26** 

**3.3.2.1 H**  **igher Temperature**  **Operation ................................................................3­27** 

**3.3.2.2 M**  **icrocavity Filaments**  **.............................................................................3­28**

**3.3.2.3 No**  **vel Filament**  **Materials ........................................................................3­29** 

**3.3.2.4 Th**  **inner Filaments**  **....................................................................................3­29**

**3.3.2.5 Ef**  **ficient Filament**  **Coiling .......................................................................3­29** 

**3.3.2.6 C**  **rystallite Filament**  **Coatings ..................................................................3­29** 

**3.3.2.7 Ef**  **ficient Filament**  **Orientation .................................................................3­29** 

**3.3.2.8 H**  **igher Efficiency**  **Inert Fill**  **Gas ..............................................................3­30** 

**3.3.2.9 L**  **uminescent Gas......................................................................................3­30** 

**3.3.2.10 Tu**  **ngsten­Halogen Lamps........................................................................3­30** 

**3.3.2.11 H**  **igher Pressure**  **Tungsten­Halogen Lamps**  **.............................................3­30**

**3.3.2.12 No**  **n­Tungsten­Halogen Regenerative**  **Cycles..........................................3­31**

**3.3.2.13 I**  **nfrared Glass**  **Coatings............................................................................3­31**

**3.3.2.14 I**  **ntegrally Ballasted**  **Low­Voltage Lamps**  **................................................3­31**

**3.3.2.15 H**  **igher Efficiency**  **Reflector Coatings......................................................3­31** 

**3.3.2.16 Tr**  **ihedral Corner**  **Reflectors .....................................................................3­32** 

**3.3.2.17 Ef**  **ficient Filament**  **Placement...................................................................3­32**

**2 3.4**  **PRODUCT C**  **LASSES.............................................................................3­32**

**3.4.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................3­32**

**3.4.1.1 Physical**  **C onstraints**  **of Fluorescent**  **Lamps .............................................3­33** 

**3.4.1.2 Lumen**  **P ackage**  **........................................................................................3­34**

**3.4.1.3 Correlated**  **C olor**  **Temperature .................................................................3­34** 

**3.4.1.4 Ballast**  **I nteroperability.............................................................................3­34** 

**3.4.1.5 Lamp**  **W attage**  **..........................................................................................3­35**

**3.4.1.6 Lamp**  **D iameter**  **........................................................................................3­35**

**3.4.1.7 Color**  **R endering**  **Index.............................................................................3­36**

**3.4.1.8 Product**  **C lasses**  **and Standard**  **Form for**  **GSFL ........................................3­36** 

**3.4.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................3­36** 

**3.4.2.1 Wattage** 

**.................................... ................................................................3­37** 

**3.4.2.2 Modified**  **S pectrum**  **..................................................................................3­37**

**3.4.2.3 Spot**  **V ersus**  **Flood Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **..................................3­38**

**3.4.2.4 Product**  **C lasses**  **and Standard**  **Form for**  **IRL ...........................................3­38** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................3**  **­40**

CHAPTER 4. S CREENING ANALYSIS

**4.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................... ................................................4­1** 

**4.2 SCREENED­OUT**  **TECHNOLGIES.......................................................4­2**

**4.2.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamp Screened­Out**  **Technologies ............4­2** 

**4.2.1.1 Multi­Photon**  **Phosphors ..........................................................................4­2** 

**4.2.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamp**  **Screened­Out Technologies**  **.....................4­2**

**4.2.2.1 Microcavity**  **Filaments .............................................................................4­3** 

**4.2.2.2 Novel**  **Filament Materials**  **........................................................................4­3**

**4.2.2.3 Crystallite**  **Filament Coatings**  **..................................................................4­3**

**4.2.2.4 Luminescent**  **Gas......................................................................................4­4**

**4.2.2.5 Non­Tungsten­Halogen**  **Regenerative Cycles..........................................4­4** 

**4.2.2.6 Infrared**  **Phosphor Glass**  **Coating .............................................................4­5** 

**4.2.2.7 Integrally**  **Ballasted Low**  **Voltage Lamps**  **................................................4­5**

**4.2.2.8 Trihedral**  **Corner Reflectors**  **.....................................................................4­5**

**4.3 SUMMARY**  **OF TECHNOLOGY**  **OPTIONS SCREENED**  **OUT..........4­6**

**4.4 REMAINING**  **TECHNOLOGIES ...........................................................4­6** 

**4.4.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps Design**  **Options ..............................4­6** 

**4.4.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **Design Options**  **.......................................4­7**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................4­8** 

CHAPTER 5. E NGINEERING ANALYSIS

**5.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................... ................................................5­1** 

**5.2 ENGINEERING**  **ANALYSIS F**  **RAMEWORK.......................................5­1**

**5.3 GENERAL**  **S ERVICE**  **FLUORESCENT LAMPS..................................5­3** 

**5.3.1 Four­Foot**  **M edium**  **Bipin .........................................................................5­6** 

**3 5.3.1.1**  **Baseline M**  **odels.......................................................................................5­6**

**5.3.1.2 Candidate**  **S tandard**  **Levels ......................................................................5­8** 

**5.3.1.3 System**  **P ower**  **Rating...............................................................................5­11**

**5.3.1.4 Results......................................................................................................5­19** 

**5.3.2 Eight­foot**  **S ingle**  **Pin Slimline**  **.................................................................5­24**

**5.3.2.1 Baseline**  **M odels.......................................................................................5­24** 

**5.3.2.2 Candidate**  **S tandard**  **Levels ......................................................................5­25** 

**5.3.2.3 System**  **P ower**  **Rating...............................................................................5­28**

**5.3.2.4 Results......................................................................................................5­32** 

**5.3.3 Eight­Foot**  **R ecessed**  **Double Contact**  **HO ...............................................5­36** 

**5.3.3.1 Baseline**  **M odels.......................................................................................5­36** 

**5.3.3.2 Candidate**  **S tandard**  **Levels ......................................................................5­36** 

**5.3.3.3 System**  **P ower**  **Rating...............................................................................5­39**

**5.3.3.4 Results......................................................................................................5­41** 

**5.4 INCANDESCENT**  **R EFLECTOR**  **LAMPS.............................................5­44**

**5.4.1 Baseline**  **M odels.......................................................................................5­45** 

**5.4.2 Candidate**  **S tandard**  **Levels ......................................................................5­45** 

**5.4.3 Results......................................................................................................5­47** 

**5.5 SCALING**  **TO PRODUCT**  **C LASSES**  **NOT ANALYZED**  **....................5­49**

**5.5.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................5­49**

**5.5.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................5­50** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................5**  **­52**

CHAPTER 6. E NERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION

**6.1 PURPOSE**  **O F**  **THE DOCUMENT**  **.........................................................6­1**

**6.2 OPERATING**  **HOURS**

**................................ ............................................6­1** 

**6.3 RESULTS**  **O F**  **THE ENERGY**  **USE CHARACTERIZATION**  **..............6­8**

**6.3.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................6­8**

**6.3.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................6­11** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................6­13** 

CHAPTER 7. P RODUCT PRICE DETERMINATION

**7.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................... ................................................7­1** 

**7.2 METHODOLOGY** 

**.................................... ..............................................7­1** 

**7.2.1 End­User**  **P roduct**  **Price............................................................................7­1**

**7.2.2 Sales**  **Ta x**  **..................................................................................................7­3**

**7.3 PRODUCT**  **P RICE**  **DETERMINATION RESULTS**  **..............................7­4**

**7.3.1 End­User**  **P rices**  **for General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps........................7­4**

**7.3.2 End­User**  **P rices**  **for Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **................................7­6**

**7.3.3 Sales**  **Ta x**  **Results .....................................................................................7­7** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................7­9** 

**4**CHAPTER 8. LIFE­CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS

**8.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................... ................................................8­1** 

**8.1.1 General**  **A pproach**  **for Life­Cycle**  **Cost and**  **Payback Period**  **Analyses ...8­1** 

**8.1.2 Overview**  **of L**  **CC and**  **PBP Inputs...........................................................8­3** 

**8.2 LIFE­CYCLE**  **C OST**  **INPUTS ................................................................8­6** 

**8.2.1 Definition**  **.................................................................................................8 ­6** 

**8.2.2 Total**  **I nstalled**  **Cost Inputs**  **.......................................................................8­7**

**8.2.2.1 Installation**  **C osts......................................................................................8­8** 

**8.2.3 Operating**  **C ost**  **Inputs ..............................................................................8­10** 

**8.2.3.1 Operating**  **H ours.......................................................................................8­11** 

**8.2.3.2 Power**  **R ating............................................................................................8­11** 

**8.2.3.3 Electricity**  **P rices**  **......................................................................................8­12**

**8.2.3.4 Electricity**  **P rice**  **Trend .............................................................................8­13** 

**8.2.4 Lifetime....................................................................................................8­16** 

**8.2.5 Replacement**  **C ost**  **....................................................................................8­16**

**8.2.6 Analysis**  **P eriod**  **........................................................................................8­17**

**8.2.7 Discount**  **R ate...........................................................................................8­18** 

**8.2.7.1 Residential**  **D iscount**  **Rate........................................................................8­18**

**8.2.7.2 Commercial**  **D iscount**  **Rate ......................................................................8­22** 

**8.2.8 Effective**  **D ate**  **of Standard.......................................................................8­25** 

**8.2.9 Salvage**  **V alue**  **..........................................................................................8­26**

**8.3 PAYBACK**  **PERIOD I**  **NPUTS ................................................................8­26** 

**8.3.1 Definition**  **.................................................................................................8 ­26** 

**8.3.2 Rebuttable**  **P resumption**  **Payback Period**  **.................................................8­27**

**8.3.3 Inputs........................................................................................................8­28** 

**8.4 LAMP**  **P URCHASING**  **EVENTS............................................................8­28**

**8.5 LIFE­CYCLE**  **C OST**  **AND PAYBACK**  **PERIOD RESULTS**  **................8­30**

**8.5.1 Results**  **f or**  **General Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **......................................8­31**

**8.5.1.1 Product**  **C lass:**  **Four­foot medium**  **bipin ≤4,500K....................................8­31** 

**8.5.1.2 Product**  **C lass:**  **8­Foot single**  **pin slimline**  **≤4,500K .................................8­43** 

**8.5.1.3 Product**  **C lass:**  **8­foot recessed**  **double contact**  **HO ≤4,500K...................8­51** 

**8.5.2 Life­Cycle**  **C ost**  **Results for**  **Incandescent Reflector**  **Lamps....................8­57**

**8.6 DETAILED**  **RESULTS A**  **ND SENSITIVITY**  **RUNS.............................8­61**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................8**  **­62**

CHAPTER 9. S HIPMENTS ANALYSIS

**9.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**................................... ................................................9­1** 

**9.2 SHIPMENTS**  **M ODEL**  **METHODOLOGY ............................................9­1** 

**9.2.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................9­2**

**9.2.1.1 Lamp**  **R eplacement**  **..................................................................................9­2**

**9.2.1.2 Lamp­and­Ballast**  **S ystem**  **Replacement ..................................................9­3** 

**9.2.1.3 Lamp­and­Ballast**  **S ystem**  **New Purchase**  **................................................9­4**

**5 9.2.2**  **Incandescent R**  **eflector Lamps**  **.................................................................9­4**

**9.2.2.1 Emerging**  **T echnologies**  **...........................................................................9­5**

**9.3 BASE­CASE**  **I NPUTS**  **AND FORECASTS**  **...........................................9­5**

**9.3.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................9­5**

**9.3.1.1 Historical**  **S hipments................................................................................9­5** 

**9.3.1.2 Shipments**  **P rojections**  **to 2011**  **and Calculations**  **of 2011**  **Lamp and** 

**Ballast S**  **tocks...........................................................................................9­6**

**9.3.1.3 Base­Case**  **M arket­Share**  **Matrices...........................................................9­7**

**9.3.1.4 Base­Case**  **F orecast**  **Results .....................................................................9­12** 

**9.3.1.5 Base­Case**  **F orecast**  **by Market**  **Segment..................................................9­15**

**9.3.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................9­18** 

**9.3.2.1 Historical**  **S hipments................................................................................9­18** 

**9.3.2.2 Shipments**  **P rojections**  **to 2011**  **and Calculations**  **of 2011**  **Lamp Stock**  **...9­19**

**9.3.2.3 Base­Case**  **M arket­Share**  **Matrices...........................................................9­19**

**9.3.2.4 Base­Case**  **F orecast**  **Results .....................................................................9­21** 

**9.3.2.5 Base­Case**  **F orecast**  **by Market**  **Segment..................................................9­23**

**9.4 STANDARDS­CASE**  **I NPUTS**  **...............................................................9­24**

**9.4.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................9­24**

**9.4.1.1 Shipments**  **S cenarios**  **................................................................................9­24**

**9.4.1.2 Standards­Case**  **M arket­Share**  **Matrices...................................................9­25**

**9.4.1.3 Early**  **R etirement**  **of Ballasts**  **in the**  **Standards Cases**  **...............................9­42**

**9.4.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................9­44** 

**9.4.2.1 Shipments**  **S cenarios**  **................................................................................9­44**

**9.4.2.2 Standards­Case**  **M arket­Share**  **Matrices...................................................9­45**

**9.5 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................9 ­48** 

**9.5.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................9­48**

**9.5.1.1 Shipments**  **F orecasts:**  **Base and**  **Standards Cases.....................................9­48** 

**9.5.1.2 Cumulative**  **S hipments**  **Impacts (2012** 

**– 2042)........................................9­54** 

**9.5.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................9­56** 

**9.5.2.1 Shipments**  **F orecasts:**  **Base and**  **Standards Cases....................................9­56** 

**9.5.2.2 Cumulative**  **S hipments**  **Impacts (2012–2042)..........................................9­58** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................9**  **­60**

CHAPTER 10. N ATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

**10.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................10­1** 

**10.2 BASE**  **C ASE**  **AND STANDARDS**  **CASE EFFICACY**  **FORECASTS,**

**LAMP STOCK,**  **AND LIGHT**  **OUTPUT ................................................10­1** 

**10.2.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10­3**

**10.2.1.1 Base**  **a nd**  **Standards Case**  **Efficacy Distributions**  **.....................................10­3**

**10.2.1.2 Installed**  **L amp**  **Stock ...............................................................................10­9** 

**10.2.1.3 Average**  **L amp**  **Efficacy and**  **Ballast Factor**  **in the**  **Stock.........................10­14**

**10.2.1.4 Light**  **O utput.............................................................................................10­20** 

**10.2.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................10­24** 

**10.2.2.1 Base**  **a nd**  **Standards Case**  **Efficacy Distributions**  **.....................................10­24**

**6 10.2.2.2**  **Installed L**  **amp Stock**  **...............................................................................10­25**

**10.2.2.3 Average**  **L amp**  **Efficacy of**  **the Stock.......................................................10­27** 

**10.2.2.4 Light**  **O utput.............................................................................................10­29** 

**10.3 NATIONAL**  **ENER GY**  **SAVINGS .........................................................10­31** 

**10.3.1 National**  **En ergy**  **Savings Definition**  **........................................................10­31**

**10.3.2 National**  **En ergy**  **Savings Inputs...............................................................10­32** 

**10.3.2.1 Unit**  **En ergy**  **Consumption (UEC)............................................................10­32** 

**10.3.2.2 Lamp**  **S tock**  **..............................................................................................10­32**

**10.3.2.3 Site­to­Source**  **C onversion**  **Factors ..........................................................10­32** 

**10.3.2.4 Interactions**  **w ith**  **Heating, Ventilation,**  **and Air­Conditioning**  **(HVAC)**

**Systems ....................................................................................................1**  **0­33**

**10.3.2.5 Rebound**  **R ate...........................................................................................10­34** 

**10.4 NET**  **P RESENT**  **VALUE .........................................................................10­34** 

**10.4.1 Net**  **P resent**  **Value Definition**  **...................................................................10­34**

**10.4.2 Net**  **P resent**  **Value Inputs**  **.........................................................................10­35**

**10.4.2.1 Total**  **A nnual**  **Installed Cost**  **Increases .....................................................10­36** 

**10.4.2.2 Total**  **A nnual**  **Operating Cost**  **Savings .....................................................10­36** 

**10.4.2.3 Discount**  **F actor**  **........................................................................................10­36**

**10.5 NATIONAL**  **ENER GY**  **SAVINGS AND**  **NET PRESENT**  **VALUE**

**RESULTS ................................................................................................1**  **0­37**

**10.5.1 National**  **En ergy**  **Savings and**  **Net Present**  **Value Input**  **Summary...........10­37**

**10.5.2 Base**  **C ase**  **Energy Consumption..............................................................10­38** 

**10.5.3 National**  **En ergy**  **Savings Results.............................................................10­40** 

**10.5.3.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10­40**

**10.5.3.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................10­42** 

**10.5.4 Annual**  **C osts**  **and Savings**  **.......................................................................10­43**

**10.5.5 Net**  **P resent**  **Value Results........................................................................10­45** 

**10.5.5.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10­46**

**10.5.5.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................10­47** 

CHAPTER 11. L IFE­CYCLE COST SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS

**11.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................11­1** 

**11.2 GENERAL**  **A PPROACH**  **TO THE**  **LIFE­CYCLE COST**  **SUB**

**GROUP ANALYSIS**  **...............................................................................11­1**

CHAPTER 12. P RELIMINARY MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS

**12.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................12­1** 

**12.2 METHODOLOGY** 

**................................... ...............................................12­1** 

**12.2.1 Phase**  **I :**  **Industry Profile..........................................................................12­2** 

**12.2.2 Phase**  **I I:**  **Industry Cash­Flow**  **Analysis and**  **Interview Guide.................12­2** 

**12.2.3 Phase**  **I II:**  **Sub­Group Analysis**  **...............................................................12­3**

**12.3 PRELIMINARY**  **MANUFACTURER I**  **MPACT OVERVIEW..............12­5** 

**12.3.1 Overview**  **of I**  **ndustry Data.......................................................................12­5** 

**7 12.3.2**  **Preliminary M**  **anufacturing Interview**  **Overview.....................................12­7**

**12.4 GENERAL**  **S ERVICE**  **FLUORESCENT LAMPS..................................12­9** 

**12.4.1 Product**  **M ix**  **.............................................................................................12­9**

**12.4.2 Conversion**  **C osts**  **.....................................................................................12­10**

**12.4.3 Materials**  **A vailability**  **..............................................................................12­10**

**12.5 INCANDESCENT**  **R EFLECTOR**  **LAMPS.............................................12­10**

**12.5.1 Product**  **M ix**  **.............................................................................................12­10**

**12.5.2 Conversion**  **C osts**  **.....................................................................................12­11**

**12.6 SUMMARY**  **OF M**  **AJOR ISSUES**  **FROM PRELIMINARY**  **MIA ........12­11** 

**12.6.1 Retooling**  **Eq uipment**  **to Produce**  **Standards­Compliant Lamps**  **..............12­11**

**12.6.2 Availability**  **o f**  **Materials to**  **Produce Standards­Compliant**  **Lamps .........12­11** 

**12.6.3 Maintaining**  **P roduct**  **Availability and**  **Features .......................................12­11** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................1**  **2­13**

CHAPTER 13. U TILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

**13.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................13­1** 

**13.2 METHODOLOGY** 

**................................... ...............................................13­1** 

**13.3 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................1 3­3** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................13­4** 

CHAPTER 14. E MPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

**14.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................14­1** 

**14.2 ASSUMPTIONS......................................................................................14­1** 

**14.3 METHODOLOGY** 

**................................... ...............................................14­1** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................14­3** 

ENVIRONMENTAL A SSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY

CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR GENERAL SERVICE

FLUORESCENT LAMPS AND INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS

**EA.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................EA­2** 

**EA.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................EA­2**

**EA.3 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................EA­4**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................EA­5** 

REGULATORY IMPACT A NALYSIS

**RIA.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................RIA­1** 

**RIA.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................RIA­1**

**8**APPENDIX 3A. LIGHTING DEFINITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

CODE AND CODE OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS

**3A.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................3A­1** 

**3A.1.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................3A­1**

**3A.1.1.1 United**  **S tates**  **Code Definitions................................................................3A­1** 

**3A.1.1.2 Code**  **o f**  **Federal Regulations**  **Definitions in**  **10 CFR**  **430.2 .....................3A­2** 

**3A.1.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................3A­4** 

**3A.1.2.1 United**  **S tates**  **Code Definitions................................................................3A­4** 

**3A.1.2.2 Code**  **o f**  **Federal Regulations**  **Definitions in**  **10 CFR**  **430.2 .....................3A­7** 

**3A.1.3 All**  **C overed**  **Lamps ..................................................................................3A­8** 

APPENDIX 5A. E NGINEERING RESULTS USED IN THE SHIPMENTS

AND NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

**5A.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................5A­1** 

**5A.2 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................5A­1**

**5A.2.1 4­foot**  **Medium Bipin**  **General Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **.....................5A­2**

**5A.2.2 8­foot**  **Single Pin**  **Slimline General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps .............5A­5** 

**5A.2.3 8­foot**  **Recessed Double**  **Contact HO**  **General Service**  **Fluorescent**

**Lamps.......................................................................................................5A­7**

**5 A.3**  **INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR**  **LAMPS.............................................5A­8**

APPENDIX 6A. E NERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION RESULTS USED

IN THE NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

**6A.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................6A­1** 

**6A.2 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................6A­1**

**6A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................6A­4** 

APPENDIX 7A. A DDITIONAL END­USER PRICES

**7A.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................7A­1** 

**7A.2 FLUORESCENT**  **LAMP BALLASTS**  **....................................................7A­1**

**7A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................7A­1** 

APPENDIX 8A. U SER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LCC AND PBP

SPREADSHEETS

**8A.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................8A­1** 

**8A.2 LCC**  **AND PBP**  **WORKBOOK ...............................................................8A­1** 

**9 8A.3**  **BASIC INSTRUCTIONS**  **........................................................................8A­2**

APPENDIX 8B. S UPPLEMENTARY LIFE CYCLE COST AND

PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS

**8B.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.................................. .................................................8B­1** 

**8B.2 INTRODUCTION**  **TO UNCERTAINTY**  **AND VARIABILITY** 

**... ........8B­1** 

**8B.3 UNCERTAINTY** 

**................................... ..................................................8B­2** 

**8B.4 VARIABILITY........................................................................................8B­2** 

**8B.5 APPROACHES**  **TO UNCERTAINTY**  **AND VARIABILITY**  **...............8B­2**

**8B.6 PROBABILITY**  **ANALYSIS A**  **ND THE**  **USE OF**  **CRYSTAL BALL...8B­3** 

**8B.7 GENERAL**  **S ERVICE**  **FLUORESCENT RESULTS..............................8B­4** 

**8B.7.1 Monte**  **C arlo**  **Results ................................................................................8B­4** 

**8B.7.1.1 4­foot**  **M edium**  **Bipin ...............................................................................8B­4** 

**8B.7.1.2 8­foot**  **S ingle**  **Pin Slimline........................................................................8B­10** 

**8B.7.1.3 8­foot**  **R ecessed**  **Double Contact**  **High Output.........................................8B­13** 

**8B.7.2 Lamp**  **a nd**  **Ballast Price**  **Scenario Results**  **................................................8B­17**

**8B.7.2.1 4­foot**  **M edium**  **Bipin ...............................................................................8B­17** 

**8B.7.2.2 8­foot**  **S ingle**  **Pin Slimline........................................................................8B­32** 

**8B.7.2.3 8­foot**  **R ecessed**  **Double Contact**  **HO .......................................................8B­41** 

**8B.8 INCANDESCENT**  **R EFLECTOR**  **RESULTS.........................................8B­51**

**8B.8.3 Monte**  **C arlo**  **Results ................................................................................8B­52** 

**8B.8.4 Lamp**  **P rice**  **Scenario Results**  **...................................................................8B­55**

**8B.8.5 Operating**  **H our**  **Scenario Results.............................................................8B­62** 

APPENDIX 8C. R ESIDENTIAL DISCOUNT RATE DISTRIBUTIONS

**8C.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................8C­1** 

**8C.2 DISTRIBUTION**  **OF REAL**  **INTEREST RATES**  **FOR CONSUMER** 

**DEBT C**  **LASSES .....................................................................................8C­1** 

**8C.3 DISTRIBUTION**  **OF REAL**  **INTEREST RATES**  **FOR FINANCIAL** 

**ASSETS**

**............................................. ......................................................8C­2** 

APPENDIX 9A. S UPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE

SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

**9A.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................9A­1** 

**9A.2 STANDARDS­CASE**  **MARKET­SHARE MATRICES**  **........................9A­1**

**9A.3 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................9A­4**

APPENDIX 10A. U SER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

**10 10A.1**  **INTRODUCTION**

**................................. ..................................................10A­1** 

**10A.1.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10A­1**

**10A.1.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................10A­5** 

**10A.2 BASIC**  **I NSTRUCTIONS**  **........................................................................10A­5**

**10A.2.1 General**  **S ervice**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **........................................................10A­5**

**10A.2.2 Incandescent**  **R eflector**  **Lamps .................................................................10A­6** 

APPENDIX 10B. S UPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE

NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

**10B.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................10B­1** 

**10B.2 STANDARDS**  **CASE EFFICACY**  **FORECAST, LAMP**  **STOCK AND** 

**LUMEN OUTPUT...................................................................................10B­1** 

**10B.3 NATIONAL**  **ENERGY SAVINGS**  **AND NET**  **PRESENT VALUE** 

**RESULTS ................................................................................................10B­7** 

APPENDIX 12A. P RELIMINARY MANUFACTURER INTERVIEW

GUIDE

**12A.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION ...................................................................................12A­1** 

**12A.2 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................12A­2**

**12A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................12A­11** 

**11**