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Bureau of the Census For Release 10:00 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 November 24, 1998
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-220

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(98)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS.
October 1998
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $3.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $189.5 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.3 percent September increase and is the first
decline since May. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.7 percent, the second decrease in the last three months.
Year-to-date, new orders are 3.9 percent above the same period a year ago.

Industrial machinery and equipment, down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $3.3 billion or 8.4 percent to
$35.7 billion. This follows a 4.2 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, down for the second consecutive month,
decreased $0.8 billion or 1.7 percent to $44.4 billion, mostly due to railroad equipment and shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a
3.4 percent September decrease. Primary metals, down five of the last six months, decreased 0.5 billion or 3.6 percent to $13.5
billion, following a 3.1 percent September decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the last five months,
increased $0.7 billion or 2.0 percent to $33.6 billion, due to electronic components. This follows a 5.8 percent September

increase.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in October increased $1.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $194.1 billion. This follows a
2.2 percent September increase and is the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.2 percent above the

same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up for the third consecutive month, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 2.7 percent to $47.9 billion.
This ‘ollows a 5.0 percent September increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the second consecutive month,
increased $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $37.1 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent September increase. Primary metals, down seven
of the last eight months, decreased $0.3 billion or 2.0 percent to $14.7 billion, following a 0.6 percent September decrease.
Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since May, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $32.2
billion, following a 4.0 percent September increase.

FILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in October decreased $4.6 billion or 0.9 percent to $501.3 billion.
This follows a slight September decrease and is the fifth decline in the last six months. Transportation equipment, down five of the
last six months, had the largest decrease, $3.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $247.9 billion. This follows a 0.6 percent September
decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since July, decreased $1.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $74.3
billion, following a 3.0 percent September increase. Primary metals, down eight consecutive months, decreased $1.2 billion or 3.9
percent to $29.5 billion. This follows a 3.1 percent September decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the
last four months, increased $1.4 billion or 2.4 percent to $60.6 billion. This follows a 0.8 percent September increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.7
billion or 9.8 percent to $6.4 billion, following a 42.9 percent September increase. Shipments, up three of the last four months,
increased $0.4 billion or 6.3 percent to $7.0 billion, following a 1.2 percent September decrease. Unfilled orders, down five of the
last six months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $96.4 billion, following a 0.5 percent September increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in October, down three of the last four months, decreased
$3.8 billion or 7.2 percent to $49.7 billion, following a 3.3 percent September decrease, Shipments, up for the second consecutive
month, increased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $53.7 billion. This follows a 4.4 percent September increase. Unfilled orders,
down for the first month since July, decreased $3.9 billion or 1.5 percent to $262.7 billion, following a slight September increase
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $4.4 billion or 9.2 percent to $43.3 billion, the first decline since July;
shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $44.9 billion, the third decrease in the last four months; and unfilled orders
decreased $1.6 billion or 1.5 percent to $106.4 billion, the first decline since July.

© REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $340.6 billion (revised from $339.4 billion); new orders, $340.5 billion (revised from $339.2 billion); unfilled orders,
$530.3 billion (revised from $530.2 billion); and total inventories, $468.3 billion (revised from $468.6 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on nwo key business indicators: durable goody manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published December 4, 1998 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled for December
23, 1998 at 10:00 AM, This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Oct, Sept. Aug. Sept; Aug. July- Oct, fy Oct.
1998 i99s' 19 Oct? | Sept! | Aug. 1998: 1998 1997 | Oct.98/97
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments ... . 194,119 | 192,946 | 188,789 | +0.6 422] +10] 199,788 | 209,073 | 187,885 +63
New orders 1897490 | 192,766 | 190,304 “17 413] +2:0 | 198,709 | 205,112 | 193,365 428
Unfilled orde: 501,304 | 505;933 06,11 09 00) +03 | 499;811 | 500,890 | 498,555 +03
187,095 | 186,337 | 182,101 +04 423] +09] 192,794 | 201,980 | 181,677 +6.1
183,137 | 185,719 | 185,371 “14 +02 | +424] 192994} 197/583 | 188,946 +211
404921 | 408,879 | 409,497 -1.0 02] +08 | 405,648 | 4051448 | 398179 +19
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. . . 160,870 | 159,614 | 156,165 +08 +22 0.0 | 163,134 | 174,010 | 152,474 +7.0
New orders 156,241 | 159,434 | 157,680 -2.0 +11 +12 | 162,055 | 170,049 | 157/954 426
Primary metals :
Shipments . 14,658 14,959 15,056 2.0 0.6] +06 14,981 15,408 16,264 19
New orders 13,468 13/965 14,413 “3.6 31 +10 13,268 13,795 15,919 16.7
Unfilled orders . 29,485 30,675 31,669 39 “31 20 | 27949 | 29,662 33,102 “15.6
Industrial machi
Shipments. 37,069 | 36,796 | 36,711 +0.7 +02 2.9 35,519 | 40,691 33,894 4.8
New orders... 5,739 | 39,012 | 37,450 84 +42 05 | 35,019 3 34829 +05
Unfilled orders . - 74308 | 75,638 73,422 18 +30] +10 74346 74.267 01
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments"... . . 32,179 | 32,470 | 31,228 0.9 +4.0 0.0 32,446 | 36,701 30,031 +8.0
New orders"... 33,582 32.916 | 31,116 +2.0 +58 52) 37,870 | 34,536 33.018 +147
Unfilled orders < - 60,650 39,247 58,801 +24 +08 02 62,955 37531 57,706 49.1
Transportation equipment :
Shipments. 47,887 | 46,623 | 44,403 42.7 45.0] 49.5 $1,668 | 49,471 44,797 +153
New orders te : 4, 45,136 | 46,745 17 34] 4175 47497 | 47.915 46,652 +18
Unfilled orders 2200022222222] 247861 | 251/394 | 252;881 -( +09 | 245,955 | 250,126 | 243,259 +E
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments . 60,693 60,070 57,910 | +1.0 437] +02 $8,231 67,068 $1,694 +12.6
New orders’. ° 56,082 60,609 | 60,304 “75 +05) +711 33,773 67,622 53,593 +03
Unfilled orders . « « 359,127 | 363,738 | 363,199 13 +01 40.7 | 356,883 | 361,341 | 353,168 +11
53,669 | $3,461 $1,222 +04 +44 $1,237 $9,975 45,486 +12.
497729 | 53,562 55,371 “72 33] 491 48,058 60,093 49,174 23
: 262,744 | 266,684 | 266,583 NS 00 262,720 | 265,899 | 252,792 9
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . - 44.911 45,042 | 43,715 03 43.0 09} 42,911 30,931 39,124 +8.0
New orders 2222222 43/302 47,664 | 44,785 92 +64] 42:5 42,063 53,570 | 41,768 +07
Unfilled orders’. 106,392 | 108,001 | 105,379 15 42:5} +10 | 106368 | 107,216 | 103,128 43.1
Defense :
Shipments. 7,024 6,609 6,688 +63 12] 43.0 6,99 7,093 6,208 +127
New orders "| 6,353 7.047 4933 9B] +429] 10.7 5,715 7,529 4419 +293
Unfilled orders 96,383 97,054 | 96,616 0.7 +05 - 94,163 95,442 | 100,376 6.2

(NA) Not available, * Revised,

* Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision, One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage:
response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most event anna
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports; M3-1(96), Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, jon mining and material metalworking machinery, special industr
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment
‘complete aitcraft, missles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships und tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment,

Defense capita) goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aireraft, missles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank componens, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Oct. | Oct. 1997- | Year ago et | Oct. 1997-[~ Year ago Oat. | Oct, 1997-

ct, 1997 | 1993-1997 | Sept. 1998 | Oct. 1997] 1993-1997 | Sept. 1998| Oct. 1997] 1993-1997 | Sept. 1998

Durable goods . . 03 02 04 02 04 07 02 Ol 02

Primary metals 7 02 04 04 04 1 08 03 05 03

Industrial machinery and equipment . 07 04 08 02 07 07 03 04 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment... . 03 08 08 10 16 23 03 04 07

Transportation equipment’ || 02 03 15 07 07 16 o4 01 02

Nondefense capital goods .... ol 02 09 18 09 0 03 02 02

Defense capital goods. | Us 13 09 42 49 64 03 02 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

215 215
New Orders

A aaa Shipments |-| 205

195

195

185 185

175 175

165 L L L L L L i L L L i L 1 165
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct

Oct. 1996 - Oct. 1998

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
59 59
New Orders

54F| Shipments | - --------------- +--+ 55505 e errr re 154

39 J 1 1 1 L 1. i L 1 1 1 1 L 39
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct

Oct. 1996 - Oct. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.