# DOE/EA-1673

Environmental Assessment

for

10 CFR 431 Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment: Energy Conservation Standards and Test Pr ocedures for Commercial Heating, AirConditioning, and Water-Heating Equipment



# July 2009

### 8-i 

## CHAPTER 8. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 8-1

8.2 AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 8-1

8.3 AIR POLLUTANT DESCRIPTIONS ................................................................................ 8-1

8.4 AIR QUALITY REGULATIONS ...................................................................................... 8-3

8.5 Global Climate Change ....................................................................................................... 8-5

8.6 ANALYTICAL METHODS FOR AIR QUALITY ............................................................ 8-7

8.6.1 Carbon Dioxide .................................................................................................... 8-8

8.6.2 Nitrogen Oxides ................................................................................................... 8-8

8.6.3 Sulfur Dioxide ..................................................................................................... 8-9

8.7 EFFECTS ON EMISSIONS ................................................................................................ 8-9

8.8 EFFECTS ON UPSTREAM FUEL

- CYCLE EMISSIONS .............................................. 8-17

8.9 WETLAND, ENDANGERED AND THREATENED SPECIES, AND CULTURAL

RESOURCES .................................................................................................................... 8-17

8.10 ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE IMPACTS ...................................................................... 8-17

8.11 NOISE AND AESTHETICS ............................................................................................. 8-18

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 8-19

LIST OF TABLES

Table 8.6.1 Estimated National Average Emissions Factors for Commercial Fuel

Combustion of Natural Gas and Fuel Oil #2 ....................................................... 8-8

Table 8.7.1 Summary of Cumulative National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007

over the Market Baseline ................................................................................... 8-10

Table 8.7.2 Sum mary of Cumulative National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adoption of Analyzed Higher Standards

over the ASHRAE Standard 90.1- 2007 Levels ................................................. 8-11

Table 8.7.3 Summary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 over the Market

Baseline .............................................................................................................. 8-12

Table 8.7.4 Summary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting Level 1 over ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 .......... 8-13

Table 8.7.5 Sum mary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting Level 2 over ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 .......... 8-14

Table 8.7.6 Summary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting Level 3 over ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 .......... 8-15

### 8- ii 

## Table 8.7.7 Summary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting Level 4 over ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 .......... 8-16

### 8-1 

## CHAP TER 8. ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSME NT

8.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes potential environmental effects that may result from amended energy conservation standards for certain equipment covered by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air -Conditioning Engineers, Inc. (ASHRAE)/Illuminating Engineering Society of North America (IESNA) Standard 90.1. Such equipment includes commercial packaged boilers and water -cooled and evaporatively- cooled commercial package air conditioners and heat pumps with a cooling capacity at or above 240,000 Btu/h and less than 760,000 Btu/h. DOE proposed standards for these two equipment types in a March 20, 2009 (74 FR 12000). This chapter only describes the potential environmental effects that may result from

amended ene rgy conservation standards for commercial packaged boilers. DOE did not analyze

the environmental effects that may results from amended national energy conservation standards

for water -cooled and evaporatively- cooled commercial package air conditioners an d heat pumps with a cooling capacity at or above 240,000 Btu/h and less than 760,000 Btu/h because there is no equipment currently being manufactured in this equipment class.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ’s proposed energy conservation standards are not
site

- spec ific, and would apply to all 50 States and U .S. territories. Therefore, none of the proposed standards would affect land uses, cause any direct disturbance to the land, or directly affect biological resources , or have any other impact on the human environment in any one area.

All of the potential standard levels analyzed are ex pected to reduce energy consumption in comparison to a baseline . For the purposes of this Environmental Assessment ( EA ), the baseline is defined as how much energy would be consumed if DOE does not adopt any standard

for commercial boilers

. a



## T he primary, anticipated environmental impact of revised standard levels is on air quality

and results from changes in fuel consumption for the equipment examined. Therefore, much of this chapter describes the air quality analysis. The latter part of the chapter describes potential impacts to other environmental resources. The changes in the demand for fossil fuel , including fuel oil and natural

gas , and the costs of achieving these savings are the primary drivers in analyzing environmental

effects.

8.2 AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS

The primary focus of the environmental analysis is the impact on air quality of amend ed energy conservation standards for commercial boilers . The outcomes of the environmental analysis are driven by changes in the quantities of fuel consumed under each of the alternatives.

8.3 AIR POLLUTANT DESCRIPTIONS

An air pollutant is any substance in the air that can cause harm to humans or the environment. Pollutants may be natural or man

- made ( i.e. , anthropogenic) and may take the form

a 

### See Section 8.7 for additional information on the baseline.

### 8-2 

## of solid particles ( i.e.

, particulates or particulate matter), liquid droplets, or gases. b



## Sulfur Dioxide For each of

the efficiency standards examined in this analysis , DOE calculated total emissions using

emissio n coefficients or ratios relating the amount of a particular pollutant emitted per unit of source energy consumed . This analysis considers three pollutants : nitrogen oxides ( NO

x 

## ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 

## ), and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 

## ). A fourth pollutant, m ercury (H g), is emitted in such small amounts that analysis of Hg in this EA would be uninformative; as such, DOE does not discuss Hg emissions in this EA

.

Sulfur dioxide is a chemical compound that is produced by various natural and industrial

pro cesses and is key contributor to acid rain . Moreover, sulfur dioxide has been shown to impair human health. In addressing SO 2 

## emissions, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 set an SO 2 

## emissions cap on all power generation, but permitted flexibility among generators through the use of emissions allowances and tradable permits

. This S O 2 

## trading process (sometimes called “cap and trade”) does not , however, cover commercial packaged boilers. Consequently, there is a

direct S O 2 

## environmental benefit from a reduction in fuel consumption resulting from the proposed higher efficiency standards for commercial packaged boilers

.

Nitrogen Oxides

Nitrogen oxides, or NO

x 

## , are the generic term for a group of highly reactive gases, all of which contain nitrogen and oxygen in varying amounts. Many of the nitrogen oxides are colorless and odorless. However, one common pollutant, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 

## ), along with particles in the air, can often be seen as a reddish

- brown layer over many urban areas. NO 2 

## is the specific form o f NO

x 

## reported in this document. NO

x 

## is one of the main ingredients involved in the formation of ground-level ozone, which can trigger serious respiratory problems. It can contribute to the formation of acid rain, and can impair visibility in areas such as national parks.

NO

x 

## also contributes to the formation of fine particles that can impair human health.

Nitrogen oxides form when fossil fuel is burned at high temperatures, as in a combustion process. The primary man -made sources of NO

x 

## are motor vehicles, electric utilities, and other industrial, commercial, and residential sources that burn fossil fuels. NO

x 

## can also be formed naturally. Electric utilities account for about 22 percent of NO

x 

## emissions in the United States.

Carbon Dioxide

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 

## ) is not a regulated or criteria pollutant (see below), but it is of interest because of its classification as a greenhouse gas (GHG) and its impact on global climate change. GHGs trap the sun’s radiation inside the Earth’s atmosphere and either occur na turally in the atmosphere or result from human activities. Naturally -occurring GHGs include water vapor,

CO 2 

## , methane (CH 4 

## ), nitrous oxide (N 2 

## O), and ozone (O 3 

## ). Human activities, however, add to the levels of most of these naturally- occurring gases. For e xample, CO 2 

## is emitted to the atmosphere when solid waste, fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), wood, and wood products are burned.

b 

### Mor e information on air pollution characteristics and regulations is available on the U.S. Environment al Protection Agen cy (EPA)’s website at www.epa.gov

.

### 8-3 

## During the past 20 years, about three-quarters of anthropogenic ( i.e. , human- made) CO 2 

## emissions resulted from burning fossil fuels.

Concentrations of CO 2 

## in the atmosphere are naturally regulated by numerous processes, collectively known as the “carbon cycle.” The movement of carbon between the atmosphere and the land and oceans is dominated by natural processes, such as plant photosynthesis. While these natural processes can absorb some of the anthropogenic CO 2 

## emissions produced each year, billions of metric tons are added to the atmosphere annually. The Earth’s imbalance between emissions and absorption results in the continuing growth of GHGs in the atmosphere, causing surface air temperatures and sub

- surface ocean temperatures to rise. In the United States, CO 2 

## emissions account for 85.4 percent of total U.S. GHG emissions. 1



## 8.4 AIR QUALITY REGULATIONS

DOE prepared this EA pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969

— also

known as NEPA (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq .)

— the regulations of the Council on Environmental Quality (40 CFR parts 1500-1508), and DOE’s regulations for compliance with NEPA (10 CFR part 1021). This EA assesses environmental impacts from alternate standard levels analyzed for commercial packaged boilers based on the results of the national energy savings analysis (see chapter 7) . Standards for w ater -cooled and evaporatively- cooled commercial pack age air conditioners and heat pumps with a cooling capacity at or above 240,000 Btu/h and less than 760,000 Btu/h were also considered in this rule; however, since no products could be identified on the market in this class, no subsequent energy or environ mental impacts were

considered in this EA.

By way of background, t itle III of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) sets forth a variety of provisions designed to improve energy efficiency. Part A of title III ( 42 U.S.C. 6291-6309) provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products Other Than

Automobiles. Part A-1 o f title III (42 U.S.C. 6311-6317) provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial Equipment. In general, t he program covers consumer products

and ce rtain commercial products (referred to hereafter as “covered products”), including

commercial furnaces and boilers. EPCA contains mandatory energy conservation standards for commercial heating, air -conditioning, and water-heating equipment (42 U.S.C. 6313( a))

. Specifically, the statute sets standards for small, large, and very large commercial package air

conditioning and heating equipment, packaged terminal air conditioners (PTACs) and packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHPs), warm air furnaces, packaged boilers, storage water heaters, and unfired hot water storage tanks. In doing so, EPCA established Federal energy conservation standards that generally correspond to the levels in the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air -Conditioning Engineers ( ASHRAE ) Standard 90.1, as in effect on October 24, 1992 ( i.e. , ASHRAE Standard 90.1-1989), for each type of covered equipment listed in 42 U.S.C. 6313(a).

Congress further directed DOE through EPCA to consider amending the existing Federal energy conservation standard for each type of equipment listed, each time ASHRAE Standard 90.1 is amended with respect to such equipment (42 U.S.C. 6313(a)(6)(A)). For each type of equipment, EPCA directs that if ASHRAE Standard 90.1 is amended, DOE must adopt amended

stand ards at the new efficiency level in ASHRAE Standard 90.1, unless clear and convincing

### 8-4 

## evidence supports a determination that adoption of a more stringent level would produce significant additional energy savings and be technologically feasible and economic ally justified (42 U.S.C. 6313(a)(6)(A)(ii)). EPCA precludes DOE from adopting any standard that would not result in significant conservation of energy (42 U.S.C 6295(o)(3); 6313(a)(6); 6316 (a) ).

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 list 188 toxic air pol lutants that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ( EPA ) is required to control. EPA has set national ambient air quality standards for six common pollutants (also referred to as “criteria” pollutants), two of

which are SO 2 

## and NO

x 

## (42 U.S.C. 7408-7410). c



## NOx emissions from 28 eastern States and the District of Columbia (D.C.) are limited under the Clean Air Interstate Rule, published in the Federal Register on May 12, 2005. Although the rule has been remanded to EPA by the D.C. Circuit, it will remain in effect until it is replaced by a rule consistent with the Court's opinion in North Carolina v. EPA. Also, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 gave EPA the authority to control acidification and to require operators of electric power plants

to reduce emissions of SO 2 

## and NO

x 

## . Title IV of the Clean Air Act established a cap

- and

- trade program for SO 2 

## th at is intended to help control acid rain. This cap- and

- trade program serves as a model for more recent programs with similar features . However, as a practical matter, commercial packaged boilers are in general not subject to the emission caps under the C le an A ir

A ct amendments , for the reasons explained below.

d 

## Under CAIR, States must achieve the required emission reductions using one of two compliance option s: (1) meet an emission budget for each regulated State by requiring power plants to participate in an EPA

- administered interstate cap

- and

- trade system that caps emissions in two stages, or (2) meet an individual State emissions budget through measures of the S tate’s choosing. In general

, however

, CAIR basically covers two general classes of NO

x 

## emitters : ( 1) stationary, fossil

- fuel -fired boilers or stationary, fossil- fuel -fired combustion turbines serving generators with nameplate capacity of more than 25 MW of electricity and producing that electricity for sale, and ( 2) a ny unit that has a maximum design heat input rate of greater than 250 million Btu/h (40 CFR 96.4). e



## The EPA’s New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) limit, among other things, SO 2 

## emission from boilers built after a certain date. In particular, 40 CFR p art 60 subpart Dc, Commerc ial packaged boilers are smaller than this second limit and are not used for commercial power production. Hence , requirements of the CAIR do not apply to commercial packaged boilers.

Standards of Performance for Small Industrial- Commercial

- Institutional Steam Generating

Units

c 

### In 2007, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the EPA had authority to regulate CO 2 

### emissions. ( Massachus etts v.
Environmental Protection Agency , 549 U.S. 497 ( 2007). EPA does not currently regulate CO 2, 

### but the agency has
been considering introduction of CO 2 

### emissions regulations. 

## , requires that small industrial

- commercial

- institutional steam generating units must limit

the allowable sulfur content in fuel oil to 0.5 wei ght percent for any steam

- generating unit that

e 

### On July 11, 2008, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia C ircuit (D.C. Circuit) issued its decision

in North Carolina v. Environmental Protection Agency , in which the C ourt vacated the CAIR rule. 531 F.3d 896 (D.C. Cir. 2008). However, in a December 23, 2008 opinion, the same panel of the D.C. Circuit reinstate d the CAIR rule pending EPA’s compliance with its July 11, 2008 ruling. 550 F.3d 1176 (D.C. Cir. 2008)( remand of vacatur ). As such, CAIR’s trading programs and target deadlines remain in place at present; however, the long term prospects for and shape of those trading programs are unknown.

### 8-5 

## has a maximum design heat input capacity of 100 million British thermal units (Btu) per hour and is constructed, modified, or reconstructed after June 9, 1989. (40 CFR 60.40c-60.48c) While commercial packaged boilers that have a maximum design heat input capacity of 100 million Btu per hour would be an extremely small subset of all boilers being considered in this rule, some would likely be covered. In addition, the NSPS does help to limit the quantity of SO 2 

## released into the atmosphere by limiting the market for fuel oils with higher sulfur content. Note, NSPS

defines a s team generating unit to be a device that combusts any fuel and produces steam or heats water or any other heat transfer medium. This term al so includes any duct burner that

combusts fuel and is part of a combined cycle system. This term does not include process heaters .(40 CFR 60.40c-60.48c)

8.5 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG E

Climate change has evolved into a matter of global concern because it is expecte d to have widespread adverse effects on natural resources and systems. A growing body of evidence points to anthropogenic sources of GHGs, such as carbon dioxide ( CO 2 

## ), as major contributors to climate change. Because this rule, if finalized, will likely d ecrease CO 2 

## emission rates from the fossil fuel sector in the United States, the Department here examines the impacts and causes of climate change and then the potential impact of the rule on CO 2 

## emissions and global warming.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Environment

Climate is usually defined as the average weather, over a period ranging from months to many years. Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate, which is identifiable through changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties ( e.g. , temperature or precipitation) over an extended period, typically decades or longer.

The World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ) to provide an objective source of information about climate change. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC Report), published in 2007, climate change is consistent with observed changes to the world’s natural systems; the IPCC exp ects these changes to continue. 2



## Changes that are consistent with warming include: (1) warming of the world’s oceans to a depth of 3000 meters; (2) global average sea level rise at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year from 1961 to 2003; (3) loss of annual average Arct ic sea ice at a rate of 2.7 percent per decade; (4) changes in wind patterns that affect extra

- tropical storm tracks and temperature patterns; (5) increases in intense precipitation in some parts of the world as well as increased drought and more frequent heat waves in many locations worldwide; and (6) numerous ecological changes. 2



## Looking forward, the IPCC describes continued global warming of about 0.2 °C per decade for the next two decades under a wide range of emission scenarios for CO 2 

## , other GHGs,

and aerosols. After that period, the rate of increase is less certain. The IPCC Report describes

cumulative increases in average global temperatures of about 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C at the end of the century relative to today. These increases vary depending on the m odel and emissions scenarios. 2



## The IPCC Report describes incremental impacts associated with the rise in temperature. At ranges of incremental increases to the global average temperature, IPCC reports, with either

### 8-6 

## high or very high confidence, that there i s likely to be an increasing degree of impacts ( e.g. , coral reef bleaching, loss of wildlife habitat, loss to specific ecosystems, and negative yield impacts for major cereal crops in the tropics), but also projects likely beneficial impacts on crop yields in temperate regions

. 2



## Causes of Climate Change

The IPCC Report states that the world has warmed by about 0.74 °C in the last 100 years. The IPCC Report finds that most of the temperature increase since the mid -20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic concentrations of CO 2 

## and other long- lived GHGs ( e.g. , methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere) rather than from natural causes. 3



## Increasing the CO 2 

## concentration partially blocks the earth’s re-radiation of captured solar energy in the infrared band, inhibits the radiant cooling of the earth, and thereby alters the energy balance of the planet, which gradually increases its average temperature. The IPCC Report estimates that CO 2 

## currently makes up about 77 percent of the total CO 2 

## -equivalent f


## global warming potential in GHGs emitted from human activities, with the vast majority (74 percent) of the CO 2 

## attributable to fossil fuel use. For the future, the IPCC Report describes a wide range of GHG emissions scenarios. However, under each scenario, CO 2 

## would continue to comprise above 70 percent of the total global warming potential. 4



## Stabilization of CO 2 

## Concentrations

Unlike many traditional air pollutants, CO 2 

## mixes thoroughly in the entire atmosphere and is long-lived. The residenc e time of CO 2 

## in the atmosphere is long compared to the emission processes. Therefore, the global cumulative emissions of CO 2 

## over long periods determine CO 2 

## concentrations because it takes hundreds of years for natural processes to remove the CO 2



## . Globally, 49 billion metric tons of CO 2 

## – equivalent, anthropogenic (man- made) GHGs are emitted every year. Of this annual total, fossil fuels contribute about 29 billion metric tons of

CO 2



## . g



## Researchers have focused on considering atmospheric CO 2 

## concentration s that likely will result in some level of global climate stabilization, and the emission rates associated with achieving the “stabilizing” concentrations by particular dates. They associate these stabilized

CO 2 

## concentrations with temperature increases that plateau in a defined range. For example, at the low end, the IPCC Report scenarios target CO 2 

## - stabilized concentrations at a range between 350 ppm and 400 ppm (essentially today’s value), because of climate inertia, concentrations in

this low

- end range would still result in temperatures projected to increase 2.0 °C to 2.4 °C above

pre

- industrial levels , 4

h

f 

### GHGs differ in their warming influence (radiative forcing) on a global climate system due to their different radiative properties and lifetimes in the atmosphere. These warming influences may be expressed through a common metric based on the radiative forcing of CO 2 

### ( i.e. , CO 2 

### - equivalent). CO 2 

### equivalent emission is the amount of CO 2 

### emission that would cause the same

- time integrated radiative forcing, over a given time horizon, as an emitted amount of other long

- liv ed GHG or mixture of GHGs. 

## (about 1.3 oC to 1.7 oC above today’s levels). To achieve concentrations between 350 ppm to 400 ppm, the IPCC scenarios present that there would have to be a rapid

g 

### Other non

- fossil

- fuel contributors include CO 2 

### emissions from deforestation and decay from agriculture biomass, agricultural and industrial emissions of methane, and emissions of nitrous oxide and fluorocarbons.

h 

### IPCC Working Group 3, Table TS 2.

### 8-7 

## downward trend in total annual global emissions of GHGs to levels that are 50 percent to 85 percent below today’s annual emission rates by no later than 2050. Since it is assumed that there would continue to be growth in global populations and s ubstantial increases in economic production, the scenarios identify required reductions in GHG emissions intensity (emissions per unit of output) of more than 90 percent. However, even at these rates, the scenarios describe some warming

, and some climate c hange is projected due to already accumulated CO 2 

## and GHGs in the atmosphere. 4



## As computed for the AEO 2008 reference case i



## 8.6 ANALYTICAL METHODS FOR AIR QUAL ITY , the cumulative U.S. energy- related CO 2 

## emissions between 2012 and 2042 are described at about 209 billion metric tons.

To analyze the effect of proposed efficiency standards on air resources, DOE used accepted EPA emission coefficients

. In DOE rules related to electrically fueled appliances and equipment, typically a modified version of the Nationa l Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

, called NEMS -BT (“ BT ” stands for Building Technologies), is used to determine the emissions that are a result of proposed energy efficiency standards . For the EA, the output is the forecasted physical emissions. The NEMS-B T tracks CO 2 

## and NO

x 

## emissions using a detailed module that provides broad coverage of all sectors collectively and includes interactive effects. However,

NEMS

- BT does not independently consider commercial emissions of NO

x 

## and SO 2 

## fro m the

combustion of n atural gas and heating fuel oil . Because an efficiency standard could result in changes in these emissions, DOE performed a limited literature search to determine appropriate

emissions factors for CO 2 

## , NO

x 

## , and SO 2 

## from commercial appliances. Specifically, this work

focuses on establishing emissions coefficients appropriate to commercial packaged boilers for use in calculating emissions impacts from proposed efficiency standards.

Th e review attempts to confirm that the emissions factors available from the E PA for

CO 2 

## , NO

x 

## , and SO 2 

## from nat ural gas and external combustion of #2 fuel oil ( e.g. , in boilers, furnaces) for commercial boilers are representative of the United States

. 6 

## The EPA cautions against the use of these emissions factors as representative of actual emissions. Rather, they are to be used, and are used here, as general approximations of national average emissions factors in

order to calculate emissions impacts that result from activities such as proposed commercial packaged boiler energy efficie ncy standards.

For each efficiency level , DOE calculated the emissions based on the annual fuel consumption for the different classes of commercial boilers and furnaces

. The EA considers impacts from two pollutants that are listed under the Clean Air Act ( NO

x 

## and SO 2 

## ) and are regulated under National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

. It also considers the impacts

of CO 2 

## . An air pollutant is any substance in the air that can cause harm to humans or the environment; the NAAQS regulates emissions of cert ain air pollutants. Pollutants may be natural

or man -made and may take the form of solid particles, liquid droplets, or gases. Table 8.6.1

summarizes the emissions factor estimates for the t wo fuels of interest

. The values presented

here are based on the EPA’s assessment of combustion emissions. These emissions estimates represent an approximate emissions factor for the United States as a whole

. They are used,

i 

### See www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo08/index.html

.

### 8-8 

## together with estimated energy savings, to calculate end

- use site emissi ons impacts

. The emissions factors discussed in this analysis are represented as mass ( kg) of the specific emission of interest per million Btu of energy input to the commercial packaged boiler.

Table 8.6.1 Es timated National Average Emissions Factors for Commercial Fuel Combustion

of Natural Gas and Fuel Oil #2

CO 2 

### (kg/million Btu) NO

x 

### (kg/million Btu) SO 2 

### (kg/million Btu)

Natural Gas 53.353 0.084 0.000

Fuel Oil #2 72.756 0.082 0.256



## 8.6.1 Carbon Dioxide

The CO 2 

## estimates in Table 8.6.1 are based on EPA’s assessment of CO 2 

## combustion from natural gas and fuel oil #2 use. Other sources of information include DOE’s Energy Information Administration (E IA) and the Canada’s Environment Canada agency. 7, 8 

## All agree to within ± 2.0 percent of EPA’s assessed estimate of CO 2 

## emissions. EPA’s CO 2 

## em issions factors for natural gas and fuel oil #2 combustion are, therefore

, a reasonable evaluation of averaged CO 2 

## emissions

rates . In the case of both fuels, the estimated CO 2 

## emission rates assume 99 percent (or higher)

conversion of fuel carbon content to CO 2


## .

The Beneficial Impact of the Rule on CO 2 

## Emissions

If finalized, it is anticipated that the rule will reduce energy

- related emissions, particu larly those associated with energy consumption in buildings., The EIA reports in its 2008 Annual Energy Outlook (

AEO 2008 ) that U.S. annual energy- related emissions of CO 2 

## in 2005 were about 5.98 billion metric tons (about 20 percent of the world energy- re lated CO 2 

## emissions and about 12 percent of total global GHG emissions), of which 2.32 billion tons were attributed

to residential and commercial buildings sector (including related energy–using equipment, such as commercial packaged boilers). Most of the GHG emissions attributed to residential and commercial buildings are emitted from fossil fuel

- fired power plants that generate electricity used in this sector, although some emissions are the results of direct combustion equipment such

as commercial boiler s. In the AEO 2008 reference case, EIA projected that annual energy

- related

CO 2 

## emissions would grow from 6.0 billion metric tons in 2005 to 6.85 billion metric tons in 2030, an increase of 14.5 percent, while emissions attributable to buildings would grow to 2.92 billion tons, an increase of 26.1 percent.

8.6.2 Nitrogen Oxides

The NO

x 

## estimates in Table 8.6.1 are based on EPA’s assessment of NO

x 

## combustion from natural gas and fuel oil #2 use. NO

x 

## emissions f ro m natural gas combustion were specifically collected for large scale (>100 million Btu /hr of heat input) combustor types. In the case of fuel oil, NO

x 

## formation in combustion processes is significantly more complex than the

formation of SO 2 

## or CO 2



## . NO

x 

## can result from oxidization of N 2. 

## Fuel is one source of N 2 

## , but the larger source is N 2 

## is through the combustion- air intake. This process is sensitive to combustion chemistry, and therefore, quite variable. It also implies that appliance design can

lower NO

x 

## emissions

. NO

x 

## is both an acid precipitation and ozone (O 3 

## ) precursor, but because

commercial appliances are a relatively small and dispersed ( i.e. , hard to monitor) source,

### 8-9 

## regulation of these emissions tend s to play a small role in government or private sector

orchestrated NO

x 

## control strategies

. The O 3 

## hazards of NO

x 

## emissions are highly variable both spatially and over time, as weather conditions favor or disfavor O 3 

## formation . L ocal NO

x 

## emissions rules and State Implementation Plans will control NO

x 

## to different degrees in different jurisdictions . In fact, sources of NO

x 

## in certain States are subject to the Clean Air Interstate Rule, which gives States the option to participate in a trading scheme

.

8.6.3 Sulfur Dioxide

Sulfur dioxide emissions from natural gas combustion are assumed to be zero. In the case of fuel oil, emissions of SO 2 

## are a direct function of the sulfur content of the fuel. Individual

S tate and local regulations limiting the amount of sulfur in fuel oil, however, reveal substantial variability in SO 2 

## emissions fac tors

. A literature survey suggested that an assumed 0.5 percent sulfur content by weight resulted in a conservative and representative estimate for the national average sulfur content for fuel oil. In addition, this 0.5 percent sulfur content by weight qua ntity was also referenced in the requirements of EPA’s New Source Performance Standards. (40 CFR 60.40c-60.48c). 5 

## A straight multiplication of the fuel energy content and the percentage of sulfur content in the fuel provides the emissions factor as per th e EPA’s Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors ( AP -42) guidelines. 6 

## Other references provided similar figures for emission

factors. 7

, 8



## 8.7 EFFECTS ON EMISSIONS

This EA examines the environmental impact that standards would have based upon the

efficienc y levels shown in ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007, and up to four higher efficiency levels

. Generally, in reporting the impacts ( including the environmental impacts ) of setting standards, DOE compares the proposed standards against a no action alternative. Each efficiency level

examined is considered an alternative action whose costs and benefits are compared with the noaction alternative

. In the case of commercial packaged boilers , however, DOE is required by law to set standards at the levels indicated by a r evised version of ASHRAE Standard 90.1 unless it can show by clear and convincing evidence that more stringent efficiency standards are technologically feasible and economically justified and would result in significant additional energy savings. (42 U.S.C . 6313(a)(6)(A)(i i )) For this reason, DOE is legally bound to adopt efficiency levels that meet or exceed those shown in ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007.

However, for this EA, DOE has chosen to report impacts in two ways. In examining the environmental impact for DOE to adopt standards equivalent to the requirements in ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007, DOE has determined that it will analyze and report these impacts against a

no- new

- standard scenario ( i.e.

, a “no action” scenario) . Under this scenario, DOE assumed a base case in which future shipments in this no- new -standard scenario reflect that of the current

market . In reporting the impacts of DOE’s adoption of efficiency levels higher than ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 ( i.e. , efficiency levels 1, 2, 3, and 4), DOE has determined that the environmental impacts should be provided as possible impacts over a separate base case that assumes a standard set at the minimum that DOE can legally adopt ( i.e. , ASHRAE Standard

90.1- 2007 efficiency levels).

### 8- 10 

## Table 8.7.1 shows the cumulative emissions impacts between the no- new -standard base case (also referred to here as the market baseline ) and adopting the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-

2007 efficiency level s over the time range of 2012 to 2042. In general, the cumul ative impact (in terms of emissions reductions) over the market base case is relatively small. Nevertheless, all equipment classes exhibit emission savings with the exception of large , g as

- fired, hot w ater equipment and large, oil- fired, s team equipment si nce essentially all equipment sold today meets
the ASHRAE level. In addition, no natural gas consuming equipment shows SO 2 

## savings since natural gas has small and essentially negligible quantities of sulfur.

Table 8.7.1 Summary of Cumulative National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 over the Market Baseline

Equipment Class Cumulative National Emissions Impact from 2012 to 2042

CO 2 

### (metric kilot ons) NO

x 

### (short tons) SO 2 

### (short tons)
Small, Gas

- fired, Hot Water (642) (1,120) 0 

### Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except N atural Draft (29) (51) 0 

### Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft (1,834) (3,200) 0 

### Small, Oil

- fired, Hot Water (645) (797) (2,501) 

### Small, Oil

- fired, Steam (311) (384) (1,206) 

### Large, Gas

- fired, Hot Water (282) (491) 0 

### Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except Natural Draft (168) (294) 0 

### Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft (1,404) (2,451) 0 

### Large, Oil

- fired, Hot Water 0 0 0


### La rge, Oil

- fired, Steam 0 0 0 

### *Negative values, shown in parentheses, indicate emissions reductions compared with the base case



## Table 8.7.2 shows the cumulative emissions impacts for selecting standards higher than

the ASHRAE St andard 90.1-2007 efficiency levels over the time range of 2012 to 2042. With the exception of a few equipment classes at efficiency level 1, all equipment classes exhibit greater cumulative emission savings when going beyond the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 l evel.

Table 8.7.3 shows the annual emission impact for selecting the ASHRAE Standard 90.1- 2007 over the market baseline over the time range 2012 to 2042 for selected years. Lastly,

Table 8.7.4 to Table 8.7.7 show the annual emission impact for selecting higher energy efficiency levels above the ASHRAE Standard 90.1 -2007 levels over the time range 2012 to

2042.ASHRAE_90 1_EA_TSD_05-22-09.doc8-11 

## Table 8.7.2 Summary of Cumulative National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopt ion of Analyzed Higher Standards over the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 Levels

Equipment Class Cumulative National Emissions Impact from 2012 to 2042 *

, **

Efficiency L evel 1 Efficiency Level 2 Efficiency Level 3 Efficiency Level 4

CO 2 

### ( metric

kilotons ) NO

x 

### (short tons) SO 2 

### (short tons) CO 2 

### ( metric

kilotons ) NO

x 

### (short tons) SO 2 

### (short tons) CO 2 

### ( metric

kilotons ) NO

x 

### (short tons) SO 2 

### (short tons) CO 2 

### ( metric

k ilotons ) NO

x 

### (short tons) SO 2 

### (short tons)

Small, Gas

- fired, Hot

Water (1,164.80) (2,032.96) 0.00 (3,837.02) (6,696.86) 0.00 (7,467.22) (13,032.73) 0.00 (11,289.11) (19,703.18) 0.00



### Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

natural Draft 3.42 5.97 0.00 (757.85) (1,322.70) 0.00 (1,582.83) (2,762.56) 0.00 (2,414.52) (4,214.12) 0.00



### Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft 306.90 535.64 0.00 (843.98) (1,473.03) 0.00 (2,246.26) (3,920.45) 0.00 na na na



### Small, Oil

- fired, Hot

Water (1,111.58) (1,373 .66) (4,313.28) (2,465.77) (3,047.14) (9,568.01) (4,124.98) (5,097.54) (16,006.27) na na na



### Small, Oil

- fired,

Steam (668.24) (825.80) (2,593.01) (1,925.38) (2,379.33) (7,471.11) (4,931.27) (6,093.94) (19,134.98) na na na



### Large, Gas

- fired, Hot

Water (759.26) (1,325.15) 0.00 (1,978.14) (3,452.49) 0.00 (3,254.87) (5,680.80) 0.00 (9,375.49) (16,363.29) 0.00



### Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

Natural Draft (1,156.43) (2,018.34) 0.00 (3,357.69) (5,860.26) 0.00 (5,596.15) (9,767.10) 0.00 (7,869.37 ) (13,734.61) 0.00



### Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft 1,153.20 2,012.70 0.00 (86.43) (150.85) 0.00 (1,686.64) (2,943.74) 0.00 (3,579.41) (6,247.24) 0.00



### Large, Oil

- fired, Hot

Water (980.92) (1,212.19) (3,806.29) (1,730.07) (2,137.98) (6,713.25 ) (2,461.80) (3,042.23) (9,552.60) na na na



### Large, Oil

- fired,

Steam (2,857.53) (3,531.27) (11,088.17) (7,707.40) (9,524.61) (29,907.28) (14,414.46) (17,813.03) (55,932.91) (29,797.58) (36,823.10) (115,624.53)

*Negative values , shown in parentheses, in dicate emissions savings over the base case

** na indicates that the equipment class did not have an Efficiency Level 4ASHRAE_90 1_EA_TSD_05-22-09.doc8-12 

## Table 8.7.3 Summary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting ASHRAE

Standard 90.1-2007 over the Market Baseline

Emission Impact for Adopting ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2007 Over the Market Baseline *

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Small, Gas

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (4.54) (10.53) (16.85) (23.70) (31.55) (40.80) (44.94)

NO

x (short tons/year) (7.93) (18.37) (29.40) (41.36) (55.06) (71.21) (78.43)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilo tons/year) (0.48) (0.77) (0.77) (1.08) (1.44) (1.86) (2.05)

NO

x (short tons/year) (0.84) (1.34) (1.34) (1.88) (2.51) (3.24) (3.57)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilo tons/year) (6.05) (11.15) (35.51) (66.61) (102.30) (144.39) (163.18)

NO

x (short tons/year) (10.56) (19.47) (61.97) (116.26) (178.55) (252.00) (284.80)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (me tric kilotons/year) (4.56) (10.57) (16.92) (23.79) (31.68) (40.97) (45.12)

NO

x (short tons/year) (5.64) (13.06) (20.91) (29.40) (39.14) (50.63) (55.76)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (17.70) (41.02) (65.64) (92.33) (122.91) (158.98) (175.09) Small, Oil

- fired, St eam CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (2.20) (5.10) (8.16) (11.48) (15.28) (19.76) (21.76)

NO

x (short tons/year) (2.72) (6.30) (10.08) (14.18) (18.88) (24.42) (26.89)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (8.53) (19.78) (31.66) (44.53) (59.28) (76.67) (84.44) Large, Gas

- fi red, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (1.99) (4.62) (7.39) (10.39) (13.83) (17.89) (19.71)

NO

x (short tons/year) (3.48) (8.06) (12.89) (18.14) (24.14) (31.23) (34.39)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Ga s

- fired, Steam, All Except

Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (1.19) (2.76) (4.41) (6.21) (8.26) (10.69) (11.77)

NO

x (short tons/year) (2.08) (4.81) (7.70) (10.84) (14.42) (18.66) (20.55)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (0.41) 0.57 (21.16) (50.67) (84.16) (123.12) (140.37)

NO

x (short tons/year) (0.71) 1.00 (36.92) (88.43) (146.89) (214.88) (245.00)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

NO

x (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Larg e, Oil

- fired, Steam

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

NO

x (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00ASHRAE_90 1_EA_TSD_05-22-09.doc8-13 

## Table 8.7.4 Summary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting Level 1 over

ASHRAE Standard 90.1 -2007

Emission Impact for Adopting Level 1 Over ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2007 *

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Small, Gas

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (2.51) (15.44) (29.10) (43.91) (60.89) (80.92) (89.87)

NO

x (short tons/year) (4.38) (26.95) (50.79) (76.64) (106.27) (141.23) (156.84)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

N atural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11

NO

x (short tons/year) 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (3.67) (12.38) (4.44) 9.32 25.13 43.78 52.10

NO

x (short tons/year) (6.41) (21.60) (7.75) 16.27 43.87 76.41 90.93

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (2.29) (14.67) (27.74) (41.92) (58.18) (77.35) (85.91)

NO

x (short tons/year) (2.83) (18.12) (34.28) (51.80) (71.89) (95.59) (106.17)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (8.88) (56.91) (107.64) (162 .67) (225.75) (300.14) (333.37) Small, Oil

- fired, Steam

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (1.63) (8.98) (16.74) (25.16) (34.81) (46.19) (51.27)

NO

x (short tons/year) (2.02) (11.10) (20.69) (31.09) (43.02) (57.08) (63.36)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (6.34) (34.85) (64.97) (97.63) (135.07) (179.23) (198.96) Large, Gas

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (2.10) (10.36) (19.09) (28.55) (39.40) (52.19) (57.91)

NO

x (short tons/year) (3.66) (18.08) (33.31) (49.83) (68.76) (91.09) (101.07)

SO 2 (short t ons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (4.07) (16.34) (29.29) (43.34) (59.45) (78.44) (86.93)

NO

x (short tons/year) (7.10) (28.51) (51.13) (75.65) (103.76) (136. 90) (151.71)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (1.15) (6.38) 13.03 40.71 72.48 109.95 126.68

NO

x (short tons/year) (2.00) (11.13) 22.73 71.04 126.5 0 191.90 221.10

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (3.93) (14.16) (24.97) (36.69) (50.12) (65.96) (73.04)

NO

x (short tons/year) (4.86) (17.50) (30.86) (45.34) (61. 94) (81.51) (90.26)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (15.26) (54.96) (96.90) (142.36) (194.48) (255.95) (283.41) Large, Oil

- fired, Steam

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (11.46) (41.26) (72.75) (106.88) (146.01) (192.15) (212.77)

NO

x (short tons/year) (14.16) (50.99) (89.90) (132.08) (180.43) (237.45) (262.93)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (44.45) (160.11) (282.28) (414.73) (566.55) (745.60) (825.60)ASHRAE_90 1_EA_TSD_05-22-09.doc8-14 

## Table 8.7.5 Summary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2 012 to 2042 for Adopting Level 2 over

ASHRAE Standard 90.1 -2007

Emission Impact for Adopting Level 2 Over ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2007

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Small, Gas

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (13.22) (54.03) (97.13) (1 43.86) (197.43) (260.61) (288.83)

NO

x (short tons/year) (23.08) (94.29) (169.52) (251.08) (344.58) (454.84) (504.10)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kiloton s/year) (10.88) (19.27) (19.27) (28.36) (38.79) (51.08) (56.57)

NO

x (short tons/year) (18.99) (33.63) (33.63) (49.50) (67.69) (89.15) (98.73)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 ( metric kilotons/year) (10.63) (29.00) (33.74) (33.72) (33.67) (33.61) (33.60)

NO

x (short tons/year) (18.56) (50.61) (58.88) (58.86) (58.77) (58.66) (58.63)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (7.72) (34.22) (62.22) (92.57) (127.37) (168.41) (186.75)

NO

x (short tons/year) (9.54) (42.29) (76.88) (114.40) (157.40) (208.12) (230.77)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (29.94) (132.78) (241.41) (359.21) (494.24) (653.48) (724.63)

Small , Oil

- fired, Steam

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (6.67) (27.13) (48.75) (72.18) (99.04) (130.72) (144.88)

NO

x (short tons/year) (8.25) (33.53) (60.24) (89.20) (122.39) (161.54) (179.04)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (25.89) (105.29) (189.15) (280.08) (384.32) (5 07.25) (562.17) Large, Gas

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (6.98) (27.96) (50.12) (74.14) (101.68) (134.15) (148.66)

NO

x (short tons/year) (12.19) (48.80) (87.47) (129.39) (177.46) (234.14) (259.46)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (12.89) (48.12) (85.33) (125.68) (171.92) (226.46) (250.83)

NO

x (short tons/year) (22.50) (83.99) (148.93) (219.35) (300.06) (395.25) (437.77)

SO 2 ( short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (6.24) (24.79) (19.58) (6.94) 8.94 29.55 39.23

NO

x (short tons/year) (10.89) (43.27) (34.18) (12.11) 15.60 51.58 68.47

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (6.94) (24.98) (44.04) (64.71) (88.40) (116.34) (128.82)

NO

x (short tons/year) (8.57) (30.87) (54.43) (79.97) (109.24) (143.76) (159 .19)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (26.91) (96.94) (170.90) (251.09) (343.01) (451.42) (499.85) Large, Oil

- fired, Steam

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (30.90) (111.29) (196.21) (288.28) (393.81) (518.27) (573.88)

NO

x (short tons/year) (38.18) (137.53) (242.47) ( 356.24) (486.66) (640.46) (709.18)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (119.89) (431.85) (761.36) (1,118.61) (1,528.11) (2,011.05) (2,226.82)ASHRAE_90 1_EA_TSD_05-22-09.doc8-15 

## Table 8.7.6 Summary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 20 12 to 2042 for Adopting Level 3 over

ASHRAE Standard 90.1 -2007

Emission Impact for Adopting Level 3 Over ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2007

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Small, Gas

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (27.78) (106.45) (189.54) ( 279.64) (382.92) (504.72) (559.13)

NO

x (short tons/year) (48.48) (185.78) (330.81) (488.06) (668.31) (880.88) (975.86)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilot ons/year) (22.79) (40.27) (40.27) (59.22) (80.94) (106.55) (118.00)

NO

x (short tons/year) (39.78) (70.28) (70.28) (103.35) (141.26) (185.97) (205.94)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (19.12) (49.24) (69.44) (86.17) (105.32) (127.90) (138.01)

NO

x (short tons/year) (33.36) (85.95) (121.19) (150.40) (183.82) (223.23) (240.86)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (14.37) (58.18) (104.45) (154.63) (212.15) (279.98) (310.29)

NO

x (short tons/year) (17.76) (71.90) (129.08) (191.09) (262.16) (345.99) (383.44)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (55.75) (225.75) (405.31) (600.01) (823.20) (10 86.41) (1204.01) Small, Oil

- fired, Steam

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (18.72) (70.54) (125.27) (184.61) (252.63) (332.85) (368.69)

NO

x (short tons/year) (23.14) (87.17) (154.80) (228.13) (312.19) (411.33) (455.62)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (72.65) (273.71) (486.08) (716.34) (980.28) (1291.56) (1430.64) Large, Gas

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (12.10) (46.39) (82.62) (121.89) (166.91) (220.01) (243.73)

NO

x (short tons/year) (21.12) (80.97) (144.19) (212.74) (291.31) (383.98) (425.38)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (21.87) (80.45) (142.32) (209.40) (286.30) (376.98) (417.50)

NO

x (short tons/year) (38.17) (140.40) (248.39) (365. 47) (499.68) (657.95) (728.67)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (12.81) (48.57) (61.67) (68.44) (73.09) (74.24) (73.66)

NO

x (short tons/year) (22.36) (84 .77) (107.64) (119.44) (127.57) (129.57) (128.56)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (9.87) (35.55) (62.67) (92.08) (125.79) (165.54) (183.30)

NO

x (short tons/year) ( 12.20) (43.93) (77.45) (113.79) (155.44) (204.57) (226.52)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (38.29) (137.94) (243.18) (357.29) (488.09) (642.34) (711.26) Large, Oil

- fired, Steam

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (57.78) (208.14) (366.96) (539.14) (736.51) (969.28) (1,0 73.28)

NO

x (short tons/year) (71.41) (257.21) (453.47) (666.25) (910.15) (1,197.80) (1,326.32)

SO 2 (short tons/year) (224.22) (807.66) (1,423.90) (2,092.03) (2,857.89) (3,761.09) (4,164.63)ASHRAE_90 1_EA_TSD_05-22-09.doc8-16 

## Table 8.7.7 Summ ary of National Emissions Impact for Commercial Boilers from 2012 to 2042 for Adopting Level 4 over

ASHRAE Standard 90.1 -2007

Emission Impact for Adopting Level 4 Over ASHRAE Standard 90.1

- 2007 *

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042
Small, Gas

- fired, H ot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (43.10) (161.63) (286.84) (422.59) (578.20) (761.71) (843.70)

NO

x (short tons/year) (75.22) (282.10) (500.62) (737.55) (1,009.13) (1,329.42) (1,472.52)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (34.80) (61.44) (61.44) (90.33) (123.43) (162.48) (179.92)

NO

x (short tons/year) (60.74) (107.24) (107.24) (157.65) (215.43) (283.58) (314.02)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) na na na na na na na NO

x (short tons/year) na na na na na na na SO 2 (short tons/year) na na na na na na na Small, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metri c kilotons/year) na na na na na na na NO

x (short tons/year) na na na na na na na SO 2 (short tons/year) na na na na na na na Small, Oil

- fired, Steam

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) na na na na na na na NO

x (short tons/year) na na na na na na na SO 2 (shor t tons/year) na na na na na na na Large, Gas

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (36.64) (134.78) (238.43) (350.82) (479.65) (631.58) (699.46)

NO

x (short tons/year) (63.94) (235.23) (416.14) (612.29) (837.13) (1,102.30) (1,220.77)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, All Except

Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (30.98) (113.27) (200.19) (294.43) (402.45) (529.84) (586.76)

NO

x (short tons/year) (54.07) (197.69) (349.39) (513.87) (7 02.40) (924.74) (1,024.08)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Gas

- fired, Steam, Natural Draft

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (20.58) (76.69) (111.46) (141.18) (170.12) (197.00) (207.19)

NO

x (short tons/year) (35.92) (1 33.85) (194.53) (246.40) (296.91) (343.83) (361.61)

SO 2 (short tons/year) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Large, Oil

- fired, Hot Water

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) na na na na na na na NO

x (short tons/year) na na na na na na na SO 2 (short ton s/year) na na na na na na na Large, Oil

- fired, Steam

CO 2 (metric kilotons/year) (119.45) (430.27) (758.58) (1,114.52) (1,522.52) (2,003.70) (2,218.68)

NO

x (short tons/year) (147.61) (531.71) (937.42) (1,377.28) (1,881.47) (2,476.09) (2,741.76)

SO 2 (s hort tons/year) (463.51) (1,669.58) (2,943.50) (4,324.65) (5,907.82) (7,774.93) (8,609.12)

“ na ” indicates that the technology did not have an energy efficiency level 4

.

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## 8.8 EFFECTS ON UPSTREAM FUEL

- CYCLE EMISSIONS

Fuel

- cycle emissions often refer to the emiss ions associated with the amount of energy used in the upstream production and downstream consumption of electricity, including energy used at the power plant. However, there are additional energy costs associated with the extraction, refining, and transport of fuel oil and the extraction, physical preparatory and cleaning processes , and transportation to the point of end use of natural gas. The analysis of emissions impacts calculated for this rule used emission coefficients based on the point of use

and th e site energy savings from higher

- efficiency equipment . The analysis does a thorough accounting of emissions at the point of use, but does not account for upstream emissions ( i.e.

, emissions from energy losses during fuel oil and natural gas production). W hile the site

- to

source energy conversion factor of approximately 10 percent was used in the development of source energy savings estimates, some fraction of this would occur in the form of larger equipment that would likely have more emission controls on them th a n are seen in commercial packaged boilers. A very rough estimate might be that an additional 10 percent impact ( typically,

this will be savings) might result due to impacts on upstream fuel- cycle emissions.

8.9 WETLAND, ENDANGERED AND THREATENED SPECIES, AND CULTURAL

RESOURCES

DOE ’s proposed action is not site-specific, nor would it affect land disturbance or use resulting from the installation of commercial boilers in commercial buildings . Therefore, none of the proposed possible standard levels is expected to affect the quality of wetlands, or threatened or endangered species or their critical habitat . Further, this action is not expected to affect cultural resources such as historical or archaeological sites.

8.10 ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE IMPACTS

Under Execut ive Order 12898, “Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations,” 59 FR 7629 (Feb. 16, 1994), DOE is required to make achieving environmental justice part of its mission by identifying and addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects of its programs, policies, and activities on minority populations and low- income populations in the United States. In examining each of the possible energy conservation standards for commercial packaged boilers, DOE did not identify any high and adverse human health or environmental effects that it believes would disproportionally or negatively impact minority or low -income populations. In general, t he environmental i mpacts associated with adoption of higher- efficiency commercial packaged boiler standards are positive in that they are found to result in reduced overall emissions of air pollutants where such boilers are used, with correspondingly positive local environm ental impacts for all populations.

In terms of standard-setting, DOE is legally mandated to adopt standards at the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 efficiency levels, unless more stringent energy conservation standards are technologically feasible, economically j ustified , and would result in significant additional energy savings. (42 U.S.C. 6313(a)(6)(A)(ii)) Because of the ANSI/ASHRAE consensus process in developing ASHRAE Standard 90.1, the representation of industry groups like the Gas Appliance Manufacturers Association (GAMA) in that process, and the opportunity for public

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## comment in that process, DOE believes that there w ould be no highly negative disproportionate impacts on small businesses used by minority or low- income commercial customers resulting

from adoption of national energy conservation standards at the ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2007 efficiency levels. Accordingly, DOE's LCC analysis (see TSD Chapter 7) did not include small or disadvantaged businesses or populations as a subgroup. If DOE determines that more stringent standards are in fact justified, DOE would do an LCC Subgroup analysis to ascertain whether there would be impacts on specific populations subgroups, including certain types of commercial customers, that would need to be examined in the light of the overall justification necessary to adopt more stringent standards.

8.11 NOISE AND AESTHETICS

Improve ments in efficienc y of commercial boilers and furnace equipment are expected to result from changes in the choice of components and other design f eatures. These changes are described in Chapter 5 of this TSD. E fficiency improvements are not expected to change noise levels in comparison to equipment in today ’s market . Equipment that is currently manufactured in the existing market that would meet the proposed standard s is no louder than less- efficient equipment. Changes to the design to improve the efficiency levels are not anticipated to affect the equipment’s aesthetics.

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## REFERENCE S

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3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)] (2007) (Last accessed April 2009) < http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment -report/ar4/wg1/ar4- wg1

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5. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, New Source Performance Standards for Boilers (Steam Generating Units): Subpart Dc of 40 CFR Part 60 - New Source Performance Standards for Small Industrial- Commercial -Institutional Steam Generating Units constructed after June 9, 1989, 1990 (Posted 2002) (L ast accessed March 2009)

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