Last printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

Aggregate Data

Mission Launch

Date T

- 0 Flight

Azimuth Debris

E c 1 10 Blast

E

c 3 Toxic

E

c Over flight

E

c Total

E

c Notes

Delta II

7925 Koreasat 1/14/96 0610L

N 93 11 x 10 - 6 0 2

0 10.6x10 - 6

5

8 21.6x10 - 6 Debris Risk same as Delta II

Bonum

11/22/98

Atlas

II AS Palapa

- C 1/31/96 2015L

N 97.1 1.8x10 - 6 0 2

0 .23x10 - 6

5 2.03x10 - 6 Debris same as Atlas IIAS

Hispasat

2/03/00

Atlas

IIA Inmarsat 4/3/96 1801L

N 104.8 4.97x 10 - 6 0 2

0 2.06x10 - 7

6 5.17x10 - 6 Debris same as Atlas IIA

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas I SAX 4/30/96 0031L

N 105.1 <4.97x 10 - 6 0 2

0 6.73x10 - 7

6 <5.6x 10 - 6

Atlas

IIA GE

- 1 9/8/86 1749L

N 96.5 4.97x 10 - 6 0 4

0 7.2x10 - 7

6 5.69x 10 - 6 Debris risk same as Atlas IIA

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas

IIA Hotbird

- 2 11/21/96 1547L

N 97.7 4.97x 10 - 6 0 2

0 9.7x10 - 7

6 5.94x 10 - 6 Debris risk same as Atlas IIA

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas

IIA Inmarsat 12/18/96 2057L

N 104.8 4.97x 10 - 6 0 2

0 2.8x10 - 7

6 5.25x 10 - 6 Debris risk same as Atlas IIA

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas

IIAS JCSAT

- 4 2/17/97 2042L

N 95.4 1.8x10 - 6 0 2

0 .23x10 - 6

5 2.03x10 - 6 Debris same as Atlas IIAS

Hispasat

2/03/00

Atlas

IIA Tempo

- 2 3/08/97 0101L

N 96.46 4.97x 10 - 6 0 7

0 6.43x10 - 7

6 5.6x 10 - 6 Debris risk same as Atlas IIA

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas I GOES 4/25/97 0149L

N 97.2 <4.97x 10 - 6 0 4

0 5.56x10 - 8

6 <5 x 10 - 6

Delta II

7925 THOR IIA 5/20/97 1838L

N 97.5 7.2x 10 - 6 0 2

0 10.6x10 - 6

5

8 17.8x10 - 6 Debris like Delta II THOR #1

6/9/98

Atlas

IIAS Superbird

C 7/28/97 2115L

N 94.7 1.8x10 - 6 0 2

0 .23x10 - 6

5 2.03x10 - 6 Debris same as Atlas IIAS

Hispasat

2/03/00

Atlas

IIAS GE

- 3 9/4/97 0803L

D 105.7 30 x10 - 6

9 0 2

0 .23x10 - 6

5 30.23x10 - 6 1 Debris Run

1 by Tom Lu

1

– 27 Aug 01Last printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

Mission Launch

Date T

- 0 Flight

Azimuth Debris

E

c 1 10 Blast

E

c 3 Toxic

E

c Overflight

E

c Total

E

c Notes

Atlas

IIAS Echostar 10/06/97 1701L

N 94 1.8x10 - 6 0 7

0 .23x10 - 6

5 2.03x10 - 6 Debris same as Atlas IIAS

Hispasat

2/03/00

Atlas

II AS Galaxy

- 81 12/08/97 1852L

N 93.5 1.8x10 - 6 0 2

0 .23x10 - 6

5 2.03x10 - 6 Debris same as Atlas IIAS

Hispasat

2/03/00

Delta II

7925 Skynet 4D 1/9/98 0032L

N 97.5 6.8x 10 - 6 0 2

0 10.6x10 - 6

8

5 17.4x10 - 6 Debris same as Bonum

11/22/98

Delta II

7420 Globalstar 2/14/98 0934L

W 65 7.06x 10 - 6 0 2

0 5.99x10 - 6

6 13.05x 10 - 6

Atlas

IIA Intelsat 2/27/98 1921L

N 95.6 1.68x 10 - 6 0 2

0 .23x10 - 6

5 1.91x 10 - 6

Delta II

7420 Globalstar

2 4/24/98 1838L

N 65 8.59x 10 - 6 0 4

0 5.99x10 - 6

6 14.58x 10 - 6

Delta II

7925 Thor III 6/9/98 2035L

N 97.5 7.2x 10 - 6 0 2

0 10.6x10 - 6

8

5 17.8x 10 - 6

Atlas

IIAS Intelsat 6/18/98 1848L

N 95.6 2.72 x10 - 6 0 7

0 .23x10 - 6

5 2.95x 10 - 6

Delta III

8930 Galaxy 8/26/98 2117L

N 98.5 30x 10 - 6 0 2

0 1.15x10 - 6

6 31.15x 10 - 6 Violates FAA Criteria

Atlas

IIA Hotbird 5 10/9/98 1701L

N 95.9 4.97x 10 - 6 0 2

0 1.5x10 - 6

6 5.12 x 10 - 6

Delta II

7925 Bonum 11/22/98 1854L

N 95 11.25x 10 - 6 0 7

0 10.6x10 - 6

8

5 21.85x10 - 6

Athena I ROCSAT 1/26/99 1934L

N 112.2 3.56x10 - 6 0 0 2.31x10 - 6

6 5.87x10 - 6 All persons within ILL

evacuated.

Athena II Lunar

Prospector 1/6/98 2128L

N 97.3 1.3x10 - 6 0 0 565.57x10

- 6

5

8 566.87x10 - 6 All persons within ILL

evacuated.Last printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

Mission Launch

Date T

- 0 Flight

Azimuth Debris

E c 1 10 Blast

E

c 3 Toxic

E

c Overflight

E

c Total

E

c Notes

Atlas

IIAS JCSAT 2/15/99 2045L

N 96.7 .97x10 - 6 0 7

0 .23x10 - 6

5 1.2x10 - 6

Atlas

II AS Eutelsat 4/12/99 1850L

N 97.6 1.19x10 - 6 0 2

0 .23x10 - 6

5 1.42x10 - 6

Delta III

8930 Orion 5/4/99 2100L

N 98.5 30x 10 - 6

9 0 57x10 - 6

4 1.15x10 - 6

5 88x10 - 6 Scrubbed due to toxic

4/5/99

Delta II

7420 Globalstar 6/10/99 0948L

D 65 30x 10 - 6

9 0 2

0 5.99x10 - 6

6 35.99x 10 - 6 Violates FAA Criteria

Delta II

7420 Globalstar 7/10/99 0445L

N 65 9.05x 10 - 6 0 114x10 - 6

4 5.99x10 - 6

6 129.1x 10 - 6 Violates FAA Criteria

Delta II

7420 Globalstar 7/25/99 0334L

N 65 9.14x 10 - 6 0 2

0 5.99x10 - 6

6 15.138x 10 - 6

Atlas

IIAS Echostar 9/23/99 0202L

N 93.9 .487x 10 - 6 0 7

0 .23x10 - 6

5 .72x 10 - 6

Delta II

7420 Globalstar 8/17/99 0037L

N 65 16.2x10 - 6 0 4

0 5.99x10 - 6

6 22.19x10 - 7

Atlas

IIAS Hispasat 2/3/00 1830L

N 98 1.8x10 - 6 0 2

0 .23x10 - 6

5 2.03 X10 - 6

Delta II

7420 Globalstar 2/8/00 1624L

N 65 7.03x 10 - 6 0 2

0 5.99x10 - 6

6 13.02x10 - 6

Atlas

IIIA Eutelsat 5/24/00 1910L

N 101.6 <11x10 - 6 0 2

0 4.16x10 - 6

5 <15.16x10 - 6

Atlas

IIAS Echostar 7/14/00 0121L

N 93.8 .77x 10 - 6 0 2

0 .23x10 - 6

5 1 x 10 - 6

Delta III

8930 DM

- F3 8/23/00 0705L

D 98.5 30 x 10 - 6

9 0 4

0 1.15x10 - 6

5 31.15x 10 - 6 Violates FAA CriteriaLast printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

NOTES:

1. Expected casualties for non

- mission essentials and visitors located inside/outside the launch impact limit lines on CCAFS/KSC.

Does not include ship/boat/airplane risks.

2. Predicted toxic plume vent to sea.

3. Blast risk for general public outside CCAFS/KSC

Boundaries are always O for these vehicle configurations.

4. Predicted toxic plume stayed on land but did not leave CCAFS/KSC properly. Non

- mission essential and visitors were evacuated/sheltered

as required.

5. Expected casualties for over flight of Africa are from Air Force analysis of National Academy of Sciences recommendation to e liminate

Antigua’s FTS assets.

6. Expected casualties for overflight are from users as provided to National Academy of Sciences 13 August 1999. These user predictions

are being reevaluated by Range Safety for future launches.

7. Predicted toxic plume vent beyond CCAFS/KSC property, but concentration of toxic vapor was below injury threshold (i.e. no ca sualties).

8. Assumes 10 0% of 3 rd stage solid propellant survives reentry environment prior to impacting the earth.

9. Non

- mission essential/visitors on CCAFS/KSC relocated/sheltered to lower debris risk to 30 x 10 - 6

.

10. Expected casualties from debris hazards determined using Range Safety’s risk assessment model “DAMP”.

11. Expected casualties from toxic hazards determined using Range Safety’s risk assessment model “LATRA”.

SYMBOLS: N

– Night D

– Day W

- Weekend

OBSERVATIONS:

- Of th e 37 commercial launches from CCAFS (1/14/96

– 8/23/00), that we have complete information for:

At least 35 had aggregated E

c ’s less than or equal to approximately 30 x 10 - 6

.

- Of the 37 launches, 34 took place at night or the weekend; when the CCAFS/ KSC population is reduced to approximately 3,000

(versus approximately 23,000 during the day).

- All three of the day launches had an aggregated E

c greater or less than 30 x 10 - 6

.

-

CONCLUSION:

- If more launches had taken place during the day, many more launches would have had aggregated E

c ’s greater or less than 30 x 10 - 6

.Last printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

Distant Focusing Overpressure Public Risk Estimates at Launch: Data for Titan and STS for FY 97, 98, and 00

Launch

Date Blast

E

c x10 - 6 Notes

STS

- 80 11/19/96 16 ACTA Rept

. 97

- 350/4.1

- 01

STS

- 81 1/12/97 173 ACTA Rept

. 97

- 350/4.1

- 01

Titan IV B

- 23 2/23/97 87 ACTA Rept

. 97

- 350/4.1

- 01

STS

- 83 4/4/97 243 ACTA Rept

. 97

- 350/4.1

- 01

STS

- 94 7/1/97 73 ACTA Rept

. 97

- 350/4.1

- 01

STS

- 85 8/7/97 1380 ACTA Rept

. 97

- 350/4.1

- 01

STS

- 86 9/25/97 8 ACTA Rept

. 97

- 350/4.1

- 01

Titan IV B

- 33 10 / 15 /97 29 ACTA Rept

. 9 8

- 3 7 0/ 9 .1

- 01

Titan IV A

- 17 11/7/97 55 ACTA Rept

. 98

- 370/9.1

- 01

STS

- 87 11/19/97 225 ACTA Rept

. 98

- 370/9.1

- 01

STS

- 89 1/22/98 115 ACTA Rept

. 98

- 370/9.1

- 01

STS

- 90 4/17/98 59 ACTA Rept

. 98

- 370/9.1

- 01

Titan IV B

- 25 5/8/98 0.7 ACTA Rept

. 98

- 370/9.1

- 01

STS

- 91 6/2/98 907 ACTA Rept

. 98

- 370/9.1

- 01

Titan IV A

- 20 8/12/98 0.02 ACTA Rept

. 98

- 370/9.1

- 01

STS

- 95 1 0 / 29 /98 157 ACTA Rept. 99

- 400/11.1

- 01

STS

- 88 12/4/98 145 ACTA Rept. 99

- 400/11.1

- 01

Titan IV B

- 27 4/9/99 0.0006 ACTA Rept. 99

- 400/11.1

- 01

Titan IV B

- 32 4/30/99 189 ACTA Rept. 99

- 400/11.1

- 01

Titan IV B

- 12 5/22/99 220 ACTA Rept. 99

- 400/11.1

- 01

STS

- 96 5/27/99 158 ACTA Rept. 99

- 400/11.1

- 01

STS

- 93 7/23/99 75 ACTA Rept. 99

- 400/11.1

- 01

STS

- 103 12/17/99 297 ACTA Rept. 00

- 430/16.1

- 01

STS

- 99 2/11/00 0.3 ACTA Rept. 00

- 430/16.1

- 01

Titan IV B

- 29 5/8/00 87 ACTA Rept. 00

- 430/16.1

- 01

STS

- 101 5/19/00 456 ACTA Rept. 00

- 430/16.1

- 01

Titan IV B

- 28 8/17/00 11 ACTA Rept. 00

- 430/16.1

- 01

STS

- 106 9/8/00 551 ACTA Rept. 00

- 430/16.1

- 01

These data show 8 of 21 launches with Blast DFO EC below 30E

- 6, 7 of 21 launches with Blast DFO EC above 30E

- 6 and below 100E

- 6, and 13 of 21 launches with Blast DFO EC above 100E

- 6