— = —-—_ ECONOMICS
ES DEPARTM OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

WASHINGTON, DC 20230

U.S. Census Bureau For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 September 26, 2002

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy CB-02-126

(301) 763-4832 or (301) 763-4814

M3-1(02)-8

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
August 2002

(AIl figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars and exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $1.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $178.4 billion, the
Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed an 8.6 percent July increase. Excluding
transportation, new orders decreased 0.9 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Year to date, new orders
for 2002 were 1.2 percent below the same period a year ago.

Fabricated metal products had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 3.5 percent to $20.5 billion. Machinery, due to industrial
machinery manufacturing, decreased $0.6 billion or 2.5 percent to $22.5 billion.

© SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in August decreased $2.4 billion or 1.3 percent to $176.5 billion. This followed a
3.3 percent July increase. Year to date, shipments for 2002 were 2.0 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.8 billion or 3.3 percent to $53.1 billion, led by motor vehicles and parts
which decreased $0.9 billion and by nondefense aircraft and parts which also decreased by $0.9 billion.

© UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in August increased $1.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $490.9 billion. This
followed a 0.1 percent July increase.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $4.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $254.4 billion, due to nondefense aircraft and parts
which increased $3.5 billion. Fabricated metal products decreased $0.8 billion and machinery decreased $0.7 billion..

© INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in August, down nineteen consecutive months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2
percent to $264.0 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent July decrease.

Computers and electronic products had the largest decrease, $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $42.8 billion, due to communications
equipment which decreased $0.2 billion. Machinery also decreased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $44.8 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in August increased $1.6 billion or 28.9 percent to $7.1 billion.
Shipments increased 0.4 percent to $6.5 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $125.4 billion. Inventories
increased $0.5 billion or 2.7 percent to $18.5 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August increased $3.4 billion or 5.9 percent to $60.5
billion. Shipments decreased $1.0 billion or 1.7 percent to $57.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $3.0 billion or 1.4 percent to
$216.0 billion, this was the first increase since January 2001. Inventories, down nineteen consecutive months, decreased $0.9
billion or 0.8 percent to $114.1 billion.

© REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $326.7

billion (revised from $327.6 billion); shipments, $326.1 billion (revised from $325.9 billion); unfilled orders, $489.0 billion
(revised from $490.1 billion); and total inventories, $427.9 billion (revised from $427.8 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods

‘This report presents advance infor
This report presents adyanes in’ for Oetoher 26 at 830 AM EDT



2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments and New Orders
[Millions of Dollars]

Sessonsly Adjusted _Not Seasonally Adjusted "~___
Monthly. Percent Change Monthly, Percent
Item Change
‘Aug Jul Jun Jul Jun = May - ‘Aug Jul Aug ‘Aug
2002 7 2002' 2002 Aug? Jul" Jun 20027 2002" 2001 02/01
176,473 178,855, 173,205 1.3] 3.3] 179,145] 153,420} 178,600} 03
178,364, 179,409} 165,261 -0.6] 8.6] 177,772] 164,063) 170,755} 41
123,409} 123,957] 121,689} 1.9) 123,886) 114,794] 124,848) 0.8
New Orders. . 120,978] 122,132 118,430} 3.1 119,414] 114,108} 120,486) 0.9
Excludins
A serie 168,721] 171,131] 165,183 aa 3.6 171,687] 146,623 171.813 0.1
169,933) 168,975) 157,891) 0.6] 7.0} 171,073] 146,528] 166,555 27
122,819] 123,861 121,501 0.8] 1.9] 123,508] 108,358] 125,226] “1.4
124,710} 124,415) 113,557 0.2) 9.6] 122,135} 109,001 117,381 41
11,408] 11,356] 1.3) 0.9) 11,802] 10,655) 11,868} -0.6
11,412! 11,203} 0.8] 2.8] 11,652] 10,416] 11,456) 1.7
21,244) 21,357 21,029] 1.6) 0.1 22,153} 20,340] (22,536 “1.7
20,486) 21,219) 20,651 2.8] “31 21,050] 21,040} 22,059) 46
23,206 23,261 22,936) 1.4] 22,415) 21,152] 23,241
22,460) 23,027] 20,863) 10.4) 21,651 21,158] 22,726}
Computers amie one Products: | 26,867 27,033] 26,126 3.5 25,285] 23,063] 24,721 23
Ree’ w Orders... sens 26,375) 26,457 25,542, 3.6 23,524) (21,946) (22,320) 5.4
6,769} 7,085} 6,252} 13.3} -5.0) 6,004} 5,688} 5,375) 17
6,685 6,783} 5,991 13.2] 9.7] 6,000} 5,278} 5,558} 8.0
§,444! 5,447) 5,573} 0.1 -2.3] -4.9) 4,971 4,579} 6,075)
5,317] 5,541 5,075) -4.0) 9.2 -15.6) 3,831 4,393} 4,166}
(NA) (NA)| (NA) (NA)] (NA) (NA}} (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
(NA)} (NA)] (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)} (NA) (NA)
8,978} 9,106} 9,012} 1.4) 1.0) -2.0} 8,923] 8,177) 9,858] 9.5
8,897} 8,638} 9,225} 3.0] -6.4) “1.3 8,791 8,066} 9,568} “8.1
53,064] 54,898) 51,516 -3.3] 6.6 1.4) 55,259] 38,626] 53,752] 28
57,386 87,277 46,831 0.2) 22.3} 6.0) 58,358] 39,955) 50,269] 16.1
39,240) 40,174 37,122] 8.2 41,735) 26,760} 39,163} 6.6
38,819] 40,366] 37,230) 8.4) 41,037, 27,180) 38,855) 5.6
5,649} 6,549} 6,145} -13.7 6.6 -1.7] 5,315) 5,066} 7,412) -28.3
9,108} 6,182] 2,663 | 47.3) 132.1 -48.9) 8,881 4,943} 6,473] 37.2
Defense aircraft and parts:
‘Shipments.. sercas] 2,944] 3,142] 3,154] 6.3] -0.4] 2,909} 2,683] 2,458] 18.3
New Orders... 3,144] 6,212] 2,620} 49.4 137.1 (2,341 5,079) 1,087] 115.4
All other ¢ sur goods:
MENts..... 31,706] 31,844) 31,380) 33,308} 31,407 32,624 24
noe Orders......... 31,348] 31,588] 31,030) 32,746} 31,482 32,357) 1.2
Capital goods:>
Shipments. ree 63,924] 64,905] 63,027 15 3.9] -1.4) 61,530 57,056] 62,788
67,549) 62,607, 57,034} 7.9) :) 7.2) 62,734) $3,714! 56,680)
57,428] 58,436] 56,314! 1.7] 3.8] 2.2] 55,301 51,265) 56,723
60,477] 57,119] 50,774] 5.9) 12.5] -9.6] 57,049) 50,268) 52,881
Excluding aireraft:
‘Shipments...... 54,810] 55,006} $3,312 0.4] 3.2] 52,887 48,758] 52,956}
New Orders... 54,310] 53,984) 50,438) 0.6] 7.0) 51,086] 48,056] 49,976}
Defense capital goods:
vents... a 6,496} 6,469) 6,713) 0.4) 6.3 6,229} §,791 6,065}
Neo Orders. 7,072) 5,488} 6,260} 28.9) 18.3) 5,685) 3,446] 3,799}

NA Not Available "Revised

» Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfiled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not acjusted
for trading-day oF ealendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufactures’ shipments inventories, and orders are eubject fo survey ert and major co of surve error, which
‘errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the sui fey bal oat ‘sample, estimates of sampiing error cannot ennot be caleatcde rte detais ot sive vey dogs methodology.
SHOE.es tenets re contamed in our most recent annual Benchmark publication, Current Industral Reports: M3-1(0T}, “Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001.”

nf inguial machionn: vending. umd.

2 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense; small arms and erdranct: semaeceey and saxipment; constuction machinery: mining, of, and gue eld machi
es fe

— a

Sead cues aptamer aap Sh se eta eat eg ta el acer

Sie oes Bop omen nts eke os ae ed a i se a roca So

‘ te estimates and percent changes exclude semicondt industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choc not to participate in this volun survey. the
usr cents ps cts st an tt ee cee esa rit ey me

© Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor
shipments, orders, or Inventories.

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and or .. communications equipment, . space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment,



Fable 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

ns of Dollars]

‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Chan Monthly Percent
Item Change
Aug Jul Jun Jul Jun - May - Aug Jul Aug ‘Aug
20027 2002° 2002 Aug? Jul! Jun 2002? 2002" 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Unfilled Orders. 490,874 488,983 488,429) 0.4! 0.1 1.6) 488,818] 490,191 518,727] 5.8
Total Inventories. (263,982, 264,461 (265,478) 0.2) -0.44 0.4) 267,273] 266,067] (291,555) -8.3
Excluding transportation:*
Unfilled Orders...... 236,458) 238,889) 240,714 “1.0 -0.8 -1.3| 235,719] 240,191] 261,632
Total Inventories. 192,588] 193,051] 193,085 0.2 0.0} 08] 194,443] 193,923) 215,095]
Excluding defense:*
Unfilled Orders. 344,790) 343,578] 345,734) 0.4) -0.6] “2.1 345,060 345,644) 389,456] 114
Total Inventories. 242,002| 242,944] 243,066) -0.4] -0.1 -0.5] 244,586] 244/350] 269,487 9.2
facturing with unfilled orders:*
Manufapirin Orders ee 490,874] 488,983] 488,429 4 01 488,818] 490,191! 518,727
Total Inventori 215,104) 215,320] 216,405) 0.1 -0.5] 217,797 216,651 238,903)
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders. 15,930] 15,926] 16,079) 0.0) 1.0) 0.5] 16,016 16,166] 17,961
Total Inventories. 18,449) 18,304) 18,282] 0.8) 1 0.7] 18,526] 18,330) 19,992)
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders. 38,729} 39,487) 39,625) -1.9] 0.3) -0.9] 39,423] 40,526 43,513]
Total inventories... 30,573; 30,571] 30,494 0.9} 03] -0.6| 30,648] 30,822| 33,255
.chinery:
Unfilled Orders. 47,220} 47,966) 48,200) -1.6) -0.5) “441 47,168) 47,932] 55,809} 16.5
Total Inventories. 44,775) 44,977) 45,063] 0.4] -0,2 -0.9) 45,019] 44,869) 48,963| “8.1
Computers and electronic products:
PuGntilled Orders... 110,987} 111,479] 112,055 -0.4 -0.5| -0.5] 109,343] 111,104] 118,238 z
Total inventories... 42,789) 43,016 42,992) -0.5] O41 1,7] 44,114 43,697) 53,984, 18.3
Computers and related product
Unfilled Orders....... 6,180} 6,264] 6,566) 1.3) -4.6) 3.8] 6,280) 6,284) 7,504) -16.3
Totat Inventories. 6,744] 6,906} 7,054) 2.3] 2.1 -0.1 7,194) 7,063) 8,840) -18.6
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 41,602) 41,729] 41,635) -0.3) 0.2] 1.2] 40,227) 41,367] 44,412] .*
Total Inventories. 10,050} 10,261 10,127) “2.1 1.3] -2.5) 10,243] 10,357} 14,623] -30.0
jemiconductors:>
‘Unfilled Orders. este (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)} (NA) (NA) (NA}] (NA) (NA)
Total Inventories. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)} (NA) (NA}} (NA) (NA) (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
‘components:
Unfilled Orders. 14,490} 14,571 15,039) -0.6) “3 1.4) 14,552] 14,684) 15,805) 79
Total Inventories. 12,908) 13,052] 13,103) ad 0.4] 0.3] 12,850] 13,011 13,997] 8.2
Transportation equipment
Unfilled Orders. (254,416) 250,094, (247,715) 1.7] 1.0] 1.9) 253,099) 250,000} 257,095 1.6
Total Inventories. 71,394) 71,410} 72,393} 0.0) 1.4] 0.3 72,830) 72,144) 76,460} 47
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders... 12,549} 12,970) 12,778) 3.2) 1.5) 0.9) 12,277) 12,975) 12,551 “2.2
Total Inventories........000++. 20,243) 20,468} 20,315) wd 0.8] 07 20,643, 21,032, (21,517) AT
Nondefense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders.... 116,109} 112,650) 113,017 34 -0.3] 116,831 113,265) 135,919) 14.0
Total Inventories. 29,592] 29,735 30,094] -0.5) 1.2] 29,957, 29,703} 33,235) 9.9
Defense Aircraft end parts:
Infilled Orders...... 58,060} 57,860] 54,790] 0.3] 5.6 -1.0) 57,396 57,964] 41,187) 39.4
Total Inventories. 10,903} 10,611 10,853} 2.8] -2.2 2.2) 11,372) 10,665} 10,401 9.3
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders... 9,102} 9,460} 9,716} -3.1 -2.6] 3.5] 9,217) 9,779} 10,306 10.6
Total Inventories. 43,094} 43,131 43,151 0.1 0.0) 0.2) 43,286} 43,194) 44,904] 3.6
Capital goods:*
Infilled Orders........... 341,368) 337,743] 340,041 11 -0.7] 338,090 336,886) 360,700) 6.3
Total Inventories........... 132,621 133,025] 134,537 -0.3 “1d 134,730} 133,573} 151,140] 10.9
Nondefense capital goods:
‘Unfilled Orders. (215,969) 212,920} 214,237) 1.4] 0.6] 214,828] 213,080} 248,149) “13.4
Total Inventories. 114,090) 114,983] 115,653] -0.8] 0.6] 115,668] 115,371 132,017 12.4
Excluding aircraft:
Unfilled Orders.... 129,401 129,901 130,923} -0.4] -0.8] 128,260} 130,061 144,939) “11.5
Total Inventories. 91,097] 91,847) 91,946] -0.8] 0.1 92,341 92,249} 105,097 12.41
Defense capital good:
Unfilled Orders. 125,399) 124,823 125,804) 0.5) -0.8] 123,262) 123,806} 112,551 95
Total Inventor 18,531 18,042 18,884) 2.7 4.5) 19,062| 18,202, 19,123] -0.3

‘See footnotes at end of Table 1