FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT 

Chris Savage or Jessica Young 

Manufacturing and Construction Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (07)-9 

CB07-150

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

September 2007 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in 

September decreased $3.8 billion or 1.7 percent to 

$214.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced 

today. This was the second consecutive monthly 

decrease and followed a 5.3 percent August decrease. 

Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 

percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 

percent. 

 

 Transportation equipment, down two consecutive 

months, had the largest decrease, $4.2 billion or 6.3 

percent to $62.4 billion. This was led by defense aircraft 

and parts, which decreased $2.1 billion. 

 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in 

September, down three of the last four months, 

decreased $4.4 billion or 2.0 percent to $211.6 billion. 

This followed a 1.9 percent August decrease. 

 Transportation equipment, down three of the last four 

months, had the largest decrease, $3.0 billion or 5.0 

percent to $56.6 billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

September, up twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine 

months, increased $8.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $771.1 

billion. This was at the highest level since the series was 

first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.1 

percent August increase. 

 Transportation equipment, up twenty consecutive 

months, had the largest increase, $5.8 billion or 1.3 

percent to $446.8 billion. 

Inventories 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in 

September, up two of the last three months, increased 

$1.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $313.9 billion. This was 

also at the highest level since the series was first stated 

on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.1 percent 

August decrease. 

 Machinery, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three 

months, had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 0.8 

percent to $51.6 billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September 

increased $3.1 billion or 4.4 percent to $74.4 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $67.6 

billion. Unfilled orders increased $6.8 billion or 1.6 

percent to $434.3 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 

billion or 0.2 percent to $122.9 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in September 

decreased $4.2 billion or 38.7 percent to $6.6 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 4.6 percent to $8.0 

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.4 billion or 1.0 

percent to $144.9 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 

billion or 1.6 percent to $17.1 billion. 

Revised August Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $419.7 

billion (revised from $420.7 billion); shipments, $417.4 

billion (revised from $417.9 billion); unfilled orders, 

$762.9 billion (revised from $763.5 billion); and total 

inventories, $516.4 billion (revised from $516.6 billion).

Figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor 

manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>.

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on November 2, 2007, at 10:00 a.m. EDT. The

advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled for release on November 28, 2007, at 8:30 a.m. EST. See back page for

survey description. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep Change

2007 2 2007 r 2007 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2007 2 2007 r 2006 2007 2006 07/06

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments............................... 211,581 215,981 220,095 -2.0 -1.9 4.0 218,861 224,672 221,388 1,910,541 1,907,826 0.1

 New Orders 4

........................... 214,531 218,300 230,502 -1.7 -5.3 5.9 217,582 222,166 237,410 1,931,221 1,923,098 0.4

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments............................... 154,963 156,381 157,221 -0.9 -0.5 1.8 161,109 160,710 162,550 1,394,368 1,390,973 0.2

 New Orders 4

........................... 152,144 151,742 154,568 0.3 -1.8 3.3 156,172 152,441 157,998 1,356,002 1,360,200 -0.3

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments............................... 202,016 205,875 209,699 -1.9 -1.8 3.7 208,588 214,674 211,450 1,823,866 1,824,843 -0.1

 New Orders 4

........................... 206,113 204,774 218,390 0.7 -6.2 4.6 210,257 209,780 221,097 1,848,910 1,834,141 0.8

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments............................... 148,339 150,650 152,992 -1.5 -1.5 3.1 154,762 155,840 155,887 1,334,851 1,313,214 1.6

 New Orders 4

........................... 156,542 159,237 170,247 -1.7 -6.5 6.6 158,724 159,838 178,448 1,412,355 1,388,426 1.7

 Primary metals:

 Shipments............................... 20,097 20,082 20,575 0.1 -2.4 1.2 20,008 20,957 20,200 183,723 177,316 3.6

 New Orders.............................. 20,166 19,843 20,398 1.6 -2.7 6.2 19,595 20,722 19,328 182,892 178,114 2.7

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments............................... 25,851 26,484 26,671 -2.4 -0.7 2.6 26,471 28,582 26,350 236,338 231,503 2.1

 New Orders.............................. 25,975 26,726 27,109 -2.8 -1.4 2.5 26,055 28,168 26,438 240,295 237,711 1.1

 Machinery:

 Shipments............................... 28,608 27,955 28,350 2.3 -1.4 2.3 28,439 27,743 28,005 249,393 247,046 1.0

 New Orders.............................. 30,260 29,014 30,220 4.3 -4.0 5.4 29,548 27,862 28,790 256,919 256,550 0.1

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments............................... 32,153 33,127 32,915 -2.9 0.6 2.6 36,348 32,251 37,054 290,970 291,931 -0.3

 New Orders 4

........................... 27,364 27,756 28,312 -1.4 -2.0 6.1 31,373 25,477 32,534 238,106 240,833 -1.1

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments............................... 5,462 5,347 4,601 2.2 16.2 -15.1 6,584 5,108 6,387 47,164 50,155 -6.0

 New Orders.............................. 5,635 5,574 4,873 1.1 14.4 -12.1 6,757 5,335 6,493 47,804 49,786 -4.0 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments............................... 5,757 5,711 5,582 0.8 2.3 2.0 6,882 5,309 6,709 48,587 49,010 -0.9

 New Orders.............................. 5,949 5,966 6,756 -0.3 -11.7 21.5 7,320 4,767 7,644 50,517 51,668 -2.2

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments............................... 5,253 6,268 6,848 -16.2 -8.5 25.4 5,241 6,504 6,539 56,824 59,940 -5.2

 New Orders 4

........................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments............................... 10,860 10,955 10,956 -0.9 0.0 1.8 11,634 11,424 11,198 97,675 91,915 6.3

 New Orders.............................. 10,836 10,883 10,686 -0.4 1.8 -2.8 11,210 11,121 11,099 99,907 95,622 4.5

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments............................... 56,618 59,600 62,874 -5.0 -5.2 9.9 57,752 63,962 58,838 516,173 516,853 -0.1

 New Orders.............................. 62,387 66,558 75,934 -6.3 -12.3 11.7 61,410 69,725 79,412 575,219 562,898 2.2

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments............................... 38,399 40,190 43,182 -4.5 -6.9 10.4 38,101 44,424 39,649 354,483 367,904 -3.6

 New Orders.............................. 38,256 39,404 42,919 -2.9 -8.2 10.3 37,885 43,157 39,823 352,501 369,689 -4.6 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments............................... 8,766 9,707 9,631 -9.7 0.8 9.5 9,196 9,902 8,748 77,392 65,558 18.1

 New Orders.............................. 15,361 12,999 22,012 18.2 -40.9 13.2 15,587 12,995 21,753 137,554 104,116 32.1

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments............................... 3,270 3,447 3,843 -5.1 -10.3 18.2 3,698 3,450 3,661 30,008 28,559 5.1

 New Orders.............................. 3,606 5,750 3,975 -37.3 44.7 25.8 3,227 5,455 2,607 26,910 25,907 3.9

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments............................... 37,394 37,778 37,754 -1.0 0.1 0.7 38,209 39,753 39,743 336,269 351,262 -4.3

 New Orders.............................. 37,543 37,520 37,843 0.1 -0.9 0.6 38,391 39,091 39,809 337,883 351,370 -3.8

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments............................... 75,589 75,847 75,059 -0.3 1.0 1.9 80,176 75,468 79,800 661,633 658,469 0.5

 New Orders.............................. 80,964 81,998 91,376 -1.3 -10.3 8.2 82,738 78,239 102,801 726,872 715,547 1.6

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments............................... 67,563 67,434 66,376 0.2 1.6 1.0 71,731 67,106 71,616 589,020 588,620 0.1

 New Orders.............................. 74,380 71,263 81,119 4.4 -12.2 4.8 77,316 68,412 87,907 658,836 639,443 3.0

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 62,083 61,455 60,342 1.0 1.8 0.0 66,141 60,809 65,920 542,109 547,285 -0.9

 New Orders........................ 62,753 62,523 62,595 0.4 -0.1 0.9 65,793 59,552 69,731 554,702 565,625 -1.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments............................... 8,026 8,413 8,683 -4.6 -3.1 9.3 8,445 8,362 8,184 72,613 69,849 4.0

 New Orders.............................. 6,584 10,735 10,257 -38.7 4.7 45.7 5,422 9,827 14,894 68,036 76,104 -10.6

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design,

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-3(06), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 2001-2006."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipmen

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep 2007/

2007 2 2007 r 2007 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2007 2 2007 r 2006 2006

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 771,130 762,927 754,340 1.1 1.1 2.3 759,346 755,384 642,617 18.2

 Total Inventories....................... 313,868 312,623 312,895 0.4 -0.1 0.1 312,758 315,176 304,143 2.8

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 324,330 321,896 320,267 0.8 0.5 1.3 319,302 318,998 292,619 9.1

 Total Inventories....................... 235,784 234,954 235,301 0.4 -0.1 0.0 234,252 236,643 230,263 1.7

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 612,451 603,101 597,934 1.6 0.9 2.7 605,347 598,437 490,815 23.3

 Total Inventories....................... 292,619 291,598 291,720 0.4 0.0 0.1 291,316 293,991 282,079 3.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 771,130 762,927 754,340 1.1 1.1 2.3 759,346 755,384 642,617 18.2

 Total Inventories....................... 247,709 246,950 246,711 0.3 0.1 0.2 246,852 248,802 237,328 4.0

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 26,599 26,530 26,769 0.3 -0.9 -0.7 25,861 26,274 27,038 -4.4

 Total Inventories....................... 31,437 31,653 31,850 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 31,268 31,716 30,685 1.9

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 57,292 57,168 56,926 0.2 0.4 0.8 57,082 57,498 54,336 5.1

 Total Inventories....................... 41,668 41,278 41,481 0.9 -0.5 0.1 41,256 41,173 40,303 2.4

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 86,615 84,963 83,904 1.9 1.3 2.3 84,414 83,305 71,775 17.6

 Total Inventories....................... 51,563 51,130 50,956 0.8 0.3 0.6 51,219 51,402 48,279 6.1

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 115,741 115,277 114,380 0.4 0.8 2.0 114,152 113,886 105,932 7.8

 Total Inventories....................... 43,232 43,086 42,988 0.3 0.2 -1.1 43,055 44,080 43,409 -0.8

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 4,047 3,874 3,647 4.5 6.2 8.1 4,047 3,874 3,241 24.9

 Total Inventories....................... 4,446 4,429 4,398 0.4 0.7 -0.9 4,421 4,710 4,590 -3.7

 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 35,333 35,141 34,886 0.5 0.7 3.5 34,820 34,382 32,791 6.2

 Total Inventories....................... 7,361 7,369 7,211 -0.1 2.2 0.3 7,316 7,470 7,470 -2.1

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 24,282 24,306 24,378 -0.1 -0.3 -1.1 23,968 24,392 21,346 12.3

 Total Inventories....................... 14,210 14,366 14,444 -1.1 -0.5 0.8 13,855 14,413 13,680 1.3

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 446,800 441,031 434,073 1.3 1.6 3.1 440,044 436,386 349,998 25.7

 Total Inventories....................... 78,084 77,669 77,594 0.5 0.1 0.4 78,506 78,533 73,880 6.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 19,471 19,614 20,400 -0.7 -3.9 -1.3 18,985 19,201 19,710 -3.7

 Total Inventories....................... 24,475 24,384 24,643 0.4 -1.1 0.3 24,518 24,466 25,022 -2.0 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 281,015 274,420 271,128 2.4 1.2 4.8 278,712 272,321 194,959 43.0

 Total Inventories....................... 31,346 31,125 30,788 0.7 1.1 0.9 31,582 31,687 25,999 21.5

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 43,447 43,111 40,808 0.8 5.6 0.3 41,925 42,396 40,316 4.0

 Total Inventories....................... 12,851 12,823 12,833 0.2 -0.1 1.0 12,971 12,906 12,868 0.8

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,801 13,652 13,910 1.1 -1.9 0.6 13,825 13,643 12,192 13.4

 Total Inventories....................... 53,674 53,441 53,582 0.4 -0.3 0.1 53,599 53,859 53,907 -0.6

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 579,153 573,778 567,627 0.9 1.1 3.0 569,129 566,567 468,165 21.6

 Total Inventories....................... 139,990 139,443 139,149 0.4 0.2 0.5 139,659 141,179 132,552 5.4

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 434,277 427,460 423,631 1.6 0.9 3.6 428,507 422,922 327,961 30.7

 Total Inventories....................... 122,910 122,636 122,187 0.2 0.4 0.5 122,506 124,295 115,262 6.3

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 181,004 180,334 179,266 0.4 0.6 1.3 177,513 177,861 157,397 12.8

 Total Inventories................... 98,850 98,668 98,444 0.2 0.2 0.6 98,131 99,903 94,651 3.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 144,876 146,318 143,996 -1.0 1.6 1.1 140,622 143,645 140,204 0.3

 Total Inventories....................... 17,080 16,807 16,962 1.6 -0.9 0.5 17,153 16,884 17,290 -0.8

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations), 

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value), and 

inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-in-process, and finished goods). The M3 includes 

approximately 4,200 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous 

companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89 

categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-tomonth changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-tomonth movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the survey show 

that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 62 percent of the shipments estimates at the total 

manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is based on a 

voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,200 reporting units and provide an 

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a 

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,200 companies would 

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a 

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore, 

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are 

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for 

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full report. 

Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made 

later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. 

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.