Effective with this press release, there are some minor changes. Table 1 will now show two new columns of year-to-date data, and the percent

change will be based on year-to-date rather than same month current year over prior year.

U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-01

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

February 27, 2003

CB-03-43

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

January 2003

(Figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. All figures exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in January increased $5.5 billion or 3.3 percent to $174.8 billion, the Department of Commerce,

U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.4 percent December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.5 percent.

Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.6 percent.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.5 billion or 5.1 percent to $51.2 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts, which increased by

$3.7 billion. Machinery increased $1.1 billion or 5.3 percent to $22.9 billion. Computers and electronic products increased $0.8 billion or 3.2

percent to $27.1 billion, due to communications equipment, which increased by $2.0 billion. Computers and electronic products are at the highest

level since June 2001.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in January increased $6.0 billion or 3.5 percent to $175.8 billion. This followed a 2.0 percent

December decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.6 billion or 7.5 percent to $51.9 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts, which increased by

$3.8 billion. Transportation equipment had the largest percent increase since May 2001. Computers and electronic products increased $1.5 billion or

6.0 percent to $27.3 billion, which was the largest percent increase since January 2000.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in January, down five consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $476.4

billion and were at the lowest level since September 1996. This followed a 0.1 percent December decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $247.3 billion, the lowest level since May 2000.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in January decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $264.6 billion. This was the twenty-third

decrease over the past twenty-four months. This followed a 0.9 percent December increase.

Computers and electronic products, at the lowest level since July 1994, had the largest decrease, $0.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $41.7 billion, led by

computers and related products, which decreased by $0.2 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in January decreased $0.2 billion or 2.3 percent to $6.8 billion. Shipments increased

$1.0 billion or 15.4 percent to $7.2 billion, which was the largest percent increase since the current series began in 1992. Unfilled orders decreased

$0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $123.0 billion. Inventories decreased $0.4 billion or 2.0 percent to $18.6 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in January increased $1.2 billion or 2.1 percent to $57.0 billion. Shipments

increased $1.1 billion or 2.0 percent to $56.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $209.6 billion. Inventories decreased

$0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $112.3 billion.

! REVISED December DATA Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $320.3 billion

(revised from $320.6 billion); shipments, $320.9 billion (revised from $321.0 billion); unfilled orders, $477.4 billion (revised from $477.6 billion);

and total inventories, $430.4 billion (revised from $430.2 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published March 6, 2003 at 10:00 A.M EST. The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for March 26

at 8:30 A.M EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date Percent

Item Change Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan 2003/

2003 2 2002 r 2002 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2003 2 2002 r 2002 2003 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Shipments................................ 175,801 169,838 173,331 3.5 -2.0 -1.7 156,132 167,134 152,973 156,132 152,973 2.1

 New Orders.............................. 174,784 169,245 169,895 3.3 -0.4 -1.2 161,848 170,266 154,241 161,848 154,241 4.9

 Excluding transportation: 4

 Shipments................................ 123,873 121,520 122,063 1.9 -0.4 -0.4 108,915 121,384 105,912 108,915 105,912 2.8

 New Orders.............................. 123,562 120,523 119,382 2.5 1.0 -1.9 112,802 120,635 107,354 112,802 107,354 5.1

 Excluding defense: 4

 Shipments................................ 167,294 162,292 164,948 3.1 -1.6 -2.1 149,191 158,227 146,681 149,191 146,681 1.7

 New Orders.............................. 167,066 161,297 162,581 3.6 -0.8 -2.3 153,882 156,627 147,712 153,882 147,712 4.2

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders: 4

 Shipments................................ 122,239 117,905 121,356 3.7 -2.8 -1.1 107,614 119,331 106,441 107,614 106,441 1.1

 New Orders.............................. 121,222 117,312 117,920 3.3 -0.5 -0.4 113,330 122,463 107,709 113,330 107,709 5.2

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 11,430 11,188 11,158 2.2 0.3 -2.0 11,085 9,604 10,544 11,085 10,544 5.1

 New Orders.............................. 11,349 10,893 10,612 4.2 2.6 -5.3 11,608 9,585 10,890 11,608 10,890 6.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 21,020 21,013 21,059 0.0 -0.2 -1.3 19,314 19,166 19,245 19,314 19,245 0.4

 New Orders.............................. 20,862 20,469 20,618 1.9 -0.7 -3.9 19,523 18,331 19,089 19,523 19,089 2.3

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 22,615 22,262 22,689 1.6 -1.9 -0.4 19,608 22,154 19,477 19,608 19,477 0.7

 New Orders.............................. 22,881 21,739 21,957 5.3 -1.0 -2.5 21,002 21,071 19,751 21,002 19,751 6.3

 Computers and electronic products: 4

 Shipments................................ 27,288 25,741 26,085 6.0 -1.3 -1.0 22,018 31,274 21,838 22,018 21,838 0.8

 New Orders.............................. 27,106 26,260 25,279 3.2 3.9 -0.9 23,537 32,938 22,610 23,537 22,610 4.1

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 7,737 6,452 6,675 19.9 -3.3 -6.1 6,176 8,557 5,228 6,176 5,228 18.1

 New Orders.............................. 7,503 7,391 6,692 1.5 10.4 -6.2 5,905 9,209 5,173 5,905 5,173 14.2 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,199 5,053 5,511 22.7 -8.3 6.7 4,577 7,113 4,518 4,577 4,518 1.3

 New Orders.............................. 6,193 4,240 5,033 46.1 -15.8 -5.1 5,359 6,561 5,134 5,359 5,134 4.4

 Semiconductors:

5

 Shipments................................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 New Orders.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 9,079 8,964 9,104 1.3 -1.5 1.0 7,792 9,118 7,666 7,792 7,666 1.6

 New Orders.............................. 8,955 8,881 8,880 0.8 0.0 -0.9 7,915 8,989 7,522 7,915 7,522 5.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 51,928 48,318 51,268 7.5 -5.8 -4.5 47,217 45,750 47,061 47,217 47,061 0.3

 New Orders.............................. 51,222 48,722 50,513 5.1 -3.5 0.7 49,046 49,631 46,887 49,046 46,887 4.6

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 38,339 34,526 36,540 11.0 -5.5 -7.0 36,594 29,274 35,530 36,594 35,530 3.0

 New Orders.............................. 38,245 34,557 36,714 10.7 -5.9 -6.0 37,004 29,734 35,950 37,004 35,950 2.9 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 4,770 5,924 6,089 -19.5 -2.7 -3.8 3,620 7,547 5,191 3,620 5,191 -30.3

 New Orders.............................. 5,488 6,839 5,636 -19.8 21.3 21.4 4,742 8,319 3,934 4,742 3,934 20.5

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,247 2,553 3,208 27.2 -20.4 10.1 2,565 3,235 2,084 2,565 2,084 23.1

 New Orders.............................. 2,495 2,682 2,922 -7.0 -8.2 11.3 2,911 4,691 3,472 2,911 3,472 -16.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 32,441 32,352 31,968 0.3 1.2 0.9 29,098 30,068 27,142 29,098 27,142 7.2

 New Orders.............................. 32,409 32,281 32,036 0.4 0.8 -0.1 29,217 29,721 27,492 29,217 27,492 6.3

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 63,640 61,563 63,077 3.4 -2.4 -0.9 53,443 68,766 53,037 53,443 53,037 0.8

 New Orders.............................. 63,814 62,811 60,483 1.6 3.8 1.7 57,020 73,277 51,264 57,020 51,264 11.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 56,405 55,295 56,031 2.0 -1.3 -1.8 47,439 61,481 47,578 47,439 47,578 -0.3

 New Orders.............................. 57,012 55,846 54,558 2.1 2.4 -1.2 50,220 61,376 46,689 50,220 46,689 7.6

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 54,678 52,534 53,154 4.1 -1.2 -1.4 46,213 57,725 44,986 46,213 44,986 2.7

 New Orders.......................... 54,439 51,627 51,914 5.4 -0.6 -3.0 48,148 56,162 45,575 48,148 45,575 5.6

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,235 6,268 7,046 15.4 -11.0 6.6 6,004 7,285 5,459 6,004 5,459 10.0

 New Orders.............................. 6,802 6,965 5,925 -2.3 17.6 39.0 6,800 11,901 4,575 6,800 4,575 48.6

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(01), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey,

 the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

5 Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor 

shipments, orders, or inventories.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan 2003/

2003 2 2002 r 2002 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2003 2 2002 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 476,359 477,376 477,969 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 478,087 472,371 503,226 -5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 264,590 264,945 262,487 -0.1 0.9 -0.2 263,462 257,796 272,166 -3.2

 Excluding transportation: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 229,062 229,373 230,370 -0.1 -0.4 -1.2 229,827 225,940 249,769 -8.0

 Total Inventories....................... 191,716 192,189 192,359 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 190,959 187,300 198,830 -4.0

 Excluding defense: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 333,272 333,500 334,495 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 333,281 328,590 362,291 -8.0

 Total Inventories....................... 242,338 242,277 240,645 0.0 0.7 -0.2 241,319 235,745 249,780 -3.4

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 476,359 477,376 477,969 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 478,087 472,371 503,226 -5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 215,219 215,744 213,345 -0.2 1.1 -0.2 214,180 210,237 223,039 -4.0

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,851 14,932 15,227 -0.5 -1.9 -3.5 14,828 14,305 16,449 -9.9

 Total Inventories....................... 18,898 18,742 18,636 0.8 0.6 0.9 19,086 19,000 18,978 0.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 37,665 37,823 38,367 -0.4 -1.4 -1.1 37,163 36,954 39,653 -6.3

 Total Inventories....................... 30,679 30,852 30,864 -0.6 0.0 0.0 30,603 30,203 31,499 -2.8

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,862 44,596 45,119 0.6 -1.2 -1.6 45,008 43,614 53,688 -16.2

 Total Inventories....................... 44,444 44,718 44,440 -0.6 0.6 -0.1 44,302 43,445 46,508 -4.7

 Computers and electronic products: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 107,727 107,909 107,390 -0.2 0.5 -0.7 108,916 107,397 114,723 -5.1

 Total Inventories....................... 41,705 42,063 42,556 -0.9 -1.2 0.3 41,059 40,254 45,479 -9.7

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 7,574 7,808 6,869 -3.0 13.7 0.2 7,432 7,703 6,749 10.1

 Total Inventories....................... 6,886 7,048 7,095 -2.3 -0.7 1.2 6,665 6,490 7,060 -5.6 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 37,953 37,959 38,772 0.0 -2.1 -1.2 38,452 37,670 42,869 -10.3

 Total Inventories....................... 8,703 8,806 9,263 -1.2 -4.9 1.9 8,601 8,404 11,375 -24.4

 Semiconductors:5

 Unfilled Orders......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,267 14,391 14,474 -0.9 -0.6 -1.5 14,309 14,186 14,732 -2.9

 Total Inventories....................... 12,371 12,373 12,503 0.0 -1.0 -0.6 12,300 11,903 13,385 -8.1

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 247,297 248,003 247,599 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 248,260 246,431 253,457 -2.1

 Total Inventories....................... 72,874 72,756 70,128 0.2 3.7 -1.1 72,503 70,496 73,336 -1.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,224 12,318 12,287 -0.8 0.3 1.4 12,653 12,243 12,613 0.3

 Total Inventories....................... 21,049 20,735 20,563 1.5 0.8 -0.5 20,951 20,297 19,647 6.6 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 113,876 113,158 112,243 0.6 0.8 -0.4 113,112 111,990 122,086 -7.4

 Total Inventories....................... 30,075 29,936 28,155 0.5 6.3 -2.0 29,840 28,787 31,688 -5.8

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 56,532 57,284 57,155 -1.3 0.2 -0.5 56,645 56,299 52,671 7.5

 Total Inventories....................... 10,847 11,151 10,736 -2.7 3.9 -0.7 10,794 10,782 10,752 0.4

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 9,690 9,722 9,793 -0.3 -0.7 0.7 9,603 9,484 10,524 -8.8

 Total Inventories....................... 43,619 43,441 43,360 0.4 0.2 0.1 43,609 42,495 42,981 1.5

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 332,682 332,508 331,260 0.1 0.4 -0.8 335,194 331,617 353,665 -5.2

 Total Inventories....................... 130,949 131,625 130,053 -0.5 1.2 -0.3 129,861 127,207 139,507 -6.9

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 209,645 209,038 208,487 0.3 0.3 -0.7 210,153 207,372 229,899 -8.6

 Total Inventories....................... 112,301 112,588 111,640 -0.3 0.8 -0.3 111,278 108,585 120,669 -7.8

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 123,584 123,823 124,730 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 124,092 122,157 137,496 -9.7

 Total Inventories.................. 89,228 89,794 89,890 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 88,423 86,734 95,278 -7.2

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 123,037 123,470 122,773 -0.4 0.6 -0.9 125,041 124,245 123,766 1.0

 Total Inventories....................... 18,648 19,037 18,413 -2.0 3.4 -0.1 18,583 18,622 18,838 -1.4

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and

Orders (M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of

cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or

market value). The M3 includes approximately 5,000 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large

companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the

small monthly sample, these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey

methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly

survey effectively represent the month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The

current coverage levels in the survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60

percent of the shipments estimates at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a

calendar month. The data collection is based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States

Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 5,000 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 5,000 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample,

therefore, the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling

errors are attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change

for establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the

month-to-month movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/.