UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | =itss.
Ni —WSsS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mON CENSUS

Burcau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth April 28, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB94-71
M3-1(94)-03

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
March 1994
(All figures in text below are in scasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $146.4 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This is the seventh increase in the last eight months and
follows a revised 1.9 percent decrease in February. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders were up $1.1 billion or
1.0 percent, the tenth consecutive monthly increase.

Primary metals had the largest increase, up $0.6 billion or 4.7 percent to $13.1 billion, the seventh increase in the last
eight months. Industrial machinery and equipment, up eight of the last nine months, increased $0.6 billion or 2.0 percent to
$27.7 billion, due to computer and office equipment. Transportation equipment, down for the second consecutive month,
decreased $0.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $37.0 billion, as decreases in aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts more than
offset an increase in railroad equipment. Instruments and related products also had a large decrease.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in March increased $0.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $147.0 billion, the seventh increase in
the last eight months. All major groups except lumber and wood products and instruments and related products increased.
Transportation equipment, up seven of the last eight months, had the largest increase, up $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $39.0
billion, as an increase in aircraft and parts more than offset a decline in motor vehicles and parts. Industrial machinery and
equipment and electronic and other electrical equipment each increased $0.1 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in March decreased $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent to $423.0 billion, the twelfth decline
in the last thirteen months. Transportation equipment, down twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, had the largest
decrease, down $2.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $212.3 billion, as a decline in aircraft and parts more than offset an increase in
railroad equipment. Instruments and related products also had a large decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment,
for the ninth consecutive month, had the largest increase, up $1.2 billion or 2.2 percent to $55.9 billion, with increases in nearly
all categories. Primary metals, up for the fourth consecutive month, increased $0.9 billion or 3.9 percent to $23.9 billion.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $1.0 billion or 16.7 percent to $5.1 billion, due to search and navigation equipment.
This follows a revised 20.7 percent decrease in February and is the sixth decline in the last eight months. Shipments increased
$0.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $7.1 billion, following a 4.2 percent decrease in February. Unfilled orders, down thirteen of the
last fourteen months, decreased $1.9 billion or 1.7 percent to $114.2 billion, with decreases in all industry categories. This is
the lowest level since September 1983.

Nondetense - New orders increased 0.1 percent to $36.4 billion, following a 0.7 percent decrease in February.
Shipments, up five of the last six months, increased $0.6 billion or 1.7 percent to $36.4 billion, following a 2.9 percent increase
in February. Unfilled orders were unchanged at $200.0 billion, following threc consecutive monthly increases. Excluding
aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.9 billion or 2.8 percent, the ninth increase in the last ten months; shipments
decreased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent, the second decrease in the last three months; and unfilled orders increased $2.1 billion
or 2.7 percent, the tenth consecutive monthly increase.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
cstimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published May 4, 1994. ‘The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May
25, 1994. ‘This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s onfine Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and
through the Census Bureau’s online information service-CFNDATA Purther infarmatinn ahant aresceing CHNIVATA ain ha abtsinnd fom Fintan


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthiy Percent
change
Mar, Feb, Jan. | Feb | Jan-| Dec. Mar. Feb. Mar,
1994! 1994" 1994 | Mar? } Feb’ | Jan. 19948 1994 1993 | Mar.94/93

DURABLE GOODS
Total :

Shipments .... 147,049 146,233 144,709 0. +11 -1.0 157,691 145,679 144,499 49.1
New orders... 146,373 145,798 148,549 +04 19 +43 157,699 146,695 139,127 +133
Unfilled orders 423,017 423,693 424,128 a 01 +0.9 426,765, 426,757 450,224 52

Excluding defense :
hipments .. .

139,998 | 139,300] 137474] +05} +13 -1.6 | 150,320 | 139,095 | 136,435 | +102
New orders | |: 141266 | 139%665 | 140811 | +11 08 | 42:6 | 151632 | 141344 | 130819 | +159
Unfilled orders’ : 308824 | 307556 | 307.191 | +04] +011 11 | 310,980 | 3093668 | 320,565 30

With unfilled orders
Shipments. : . 116,093 | 114,950 | 113,705} +10] +14 -14 | 124,869 | 112,877 | 115,538 +811
New orders 222002220002 15417 | 114ists | 117545 | +08 26] +54 | 124877 | 113,893 | 110,166 | +13.4

Primary metals =
prnents 12,177 | 12,182 | 11,802 | +02 3.0) 20] 12,721] 12,367] 12,053, +5.
New orders | 13077 | 12486 | gost | 447 | 436] 01 | 14367 | 13148 | 12779 | 412.4
Unfilled orders’: 23,904 | 23004 | 22.670 | +3.9 15] +11 | 25212 | 23,566 | 24,460 +31
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments ........... --1 26476 | 26,363 | 25,098] +04] +5. 43 | 30,752] 25,601 | 27.204] = +13.0
New orders | 27679 | 27,127 | 25872 | +20] +49] 35] 31474] 26603 | 26260] +199
Unfilled orders 551907 | 34;704 | 531940 | 422] +14] 415] 36,403] Ssre81 | 50,782 | +111

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :

Shipments. 2... 2.520 21,365 | 21,287 | 21,083 | +04 +10 22,626 | 21,000 19,793 | +143
New orders |: 21267 | 20/962 | 22'300 | +1.5 60) +77] 21,760 | 21/507 18,399 | +183
Unfilled orders. 457978 | 46,076 | 46,401 02 07 46,078 | 46,944 | 42,640 +81
Transportation equipment :
shipments... . : 39,023 | 38,764 | 39,053 | +0.7 O07} +19] 41871 40,241 38,785 8.0
New orders 36.957 | 37,491 | 41,292 “14 92] +156} 40,690 | 38,480 | 35,577 | +144
Unfilled orders <2 +. - +. | 2123292 | 214/358 | 215,631 -10 06 | +10] 213,644 | 214;825 | 239,322 -10.7
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
‘Shipments 43,458 | 42,722 | 42,012 | +17 +17 33 | 48,717 | 40,827 | 45,708 +66
New orders. - 41516 | 42/518 | 447368 24 42] +101 | 46967 | 40.468 | _40:970 | +14.6
Unfilled orders <<. - 314,220 | 316,162 | 316,366 -06 “0.1 +08 | 316,311 | 318,061 | 340,502 71
Nondefense :
Shipments... . . 36,407 | 35,789 | 34,777 | +1.7 +29 41346 | 34,243 | 37,644 498
New orders”. +. | 36,409 | 36385 | 36630] +011 07} +45] 40,900 | 35:17 | 32,662 | +25.2
Unfilled orders’. 200,027 | 200,025 | 199,429 00 +03 200,526 | 200/972 | 210,843 49
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . . . vs 30,856 | 31,088 | 29,614 07 45.0 : 35,102 | 29,775 | 31,191 +125
New orders «°° 32,927 | 32034 | 30,407 | +28 454 -75 | 36,725 | 30,9 30,167 | $21.7
Unfilled orders: 79,707 | 77,636 | 76,690 | #2.7 80,206 | 78/583 | 71,078 +128
Defense :
Shipments... . . 7,051 6,933 7235 | +17 42 1 7311 6,584 8,064 8.6
New orders... 5,107 6,133 T73B} 167 | -207 | 447.7 6,067 5351 83308 27.0
Unfilled orders < ° 114193 | 116,137 | 116,937 AT 0.7} +04 | 115,785 | 117,089 | 129,659 -10.7

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

* Shipments and new orders are the foals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-momth variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month varats

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments and orders are subject to survey variability and revision. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling variability cannot be calcula!
Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitation are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), “Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-195

"The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and cubines, imernal combustion engines, constriction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery. special indu
machinery, general 1 machinery, ‘and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical wansmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equiprn
Complete aireraft. missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank component, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

‘Defense capital goods inchide ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1993-] Year ago ‘Mar. | Mar. 1993-| _ Year ago Mar. [Mar. 1993

Mar. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Feb. 1994] Mar. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Feb. 1994] Mar. 1993] 1989-1993 | Feb. 19%

Durable goods 03 03 03 0.0 06 03 0.0 0. 0.

Primary metals . : 02 04 04 0s 12 11 03 04 0:

Industrial machinery’ and 2.0 15 08 14 12 08 0.0 03 0.
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 04 0s 06 08 13 it 01 03 0:

‘Transportation equipment. | 05 06 06 06 20 12 0.0 02 0.

Nondefense capital goods . 20 12 07 16 20 Ld 01 02 0

Defense capital goods .. . 03 05 08 24 17 6. ol ou 0:

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regar
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
165

165
New Orders
ee Shipments |-] 155
145 “41145
135 135
125 125
115 rl L. L L i 1 1 il L i 1 il 115
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
Mar. 1992 - Mar. 1994
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45
New Orders
40P----------------------------------- Shipments |-] 40

25 n n n n 1 r n L L L L Lt 95

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan. Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
Mar. 1992 - Mar. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.