UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | witiertio
NI —WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 me CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 March 25, 1998
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-48
(01) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(98)-02

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 1998
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $3.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $184.0
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.5 percent January increase and is the
second decrease in the last three months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent, the third consecutive monthly
increase. Year-to-date, new orders are 4.7 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $3.8 billion or 8.5 percent to $41.6 billion;
a large decrease in aircraft and parts more than offset an increase in motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 6.3 percent January
increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since November, decreased $0.9 billion or 2.7
percent to $30.4 billion, due to declines in communication equipment and electronic components. This follows a 2.2 percent

january increase. Instruments and related products, down for the second consecutive month, also declined. Industrial machinery
and equipment, up for the third consecutive month, increased $1.1 billion or 3.2 percent to $36.5 billion. This follows a 2.2
percent January increase. Primary metals increased $0.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $15.4 billion, following a 2.1 percent January
decrease. This is the first increase since November.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in February increased $4.1 billion or 2.2 percent to $187.1 billion. This follows a
1.3 percent January decrease and is the second increase in the last three months. Year-to-date shipments are 6.9 percent above the
same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 4.3 percent to
$30.9 billion. This follows a 3.3 percent January decrease. Transportation equipment, up for the first month since November,
increased $1.1 billion or 2.7 percent to $43.7 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts and railroad equipment. This follows a 1.9
percent January decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.4 billion or 1.2
percent to $36.1 billion. This follows a 0.4 percent January increase. Primary metals, up for the second consecutive month,
increased $0.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $15.5 billion, following a 0.7 percent January increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in February decreased $3.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $516.3 billion.
This follows a 0.8 percent January increase and is the second decrease in the last three months. Transportation equipment, down
two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $2.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $262.1 billion, due to aircraft and parts and
shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 1.1 percent January increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.5
billion or 0.8 percent to $56.2 billion. This follows a 3.0 percent January increase and is the fourth decline in the last five months.
Primary metals decreased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $33.7 billion. This follows a 1.0 percent January decrease and twelve
consecutive monthly increases. Instruments and related products, down for the first month since October, also decreased.
Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month since November, increased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $73.1 billion,
following a 0.3 percent January decrease.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in February, down for the first month since October, decreased
$2.1 billion or 27.8 percent to $5.4 billion, following an 8.0 percent January increase. Shipments, up five of the last six months,
increased 0.4 percent to $6.5 billion, following a 3. percent January increase. Unfilled orders, down for the first month since
November, decreased $1.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $104.0 billion, following a 0.9 percent January increase.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in February, down two of the last three months, decreased
$2.8 billion or 5.4 percent to $49.2 billion, following a 13.1 percent January increase. Shipments, up for the third consecutive
month, increased $0.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $49.9 billion. This follows a 1.6 percent January increase. Unfilled orders, down
two of the last three months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $266.9 billion, following a 1.0 percent January increase.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $42.8 billion, the third consecutive monthly
increase; shipments increased $0.9 billion or 2.1 percent to $42.1 billion, the second increase in the last three months; and unfilled
orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $103.4 billion, the seventh increase in the last eight months.

@ REVISED JANUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted January figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$333.9 billion (revised from $333.4 billion); new orders, $337.7 billion (revised from $337.4 billion); unfilled orders, $545.3
billion (revised from $545.4 billion); and total inventories, $455.0 billion (revised from $454.1 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www .census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published April 2, 1998. The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for April 28, 1998. This report is available
‘on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Feb, Jan, Dec. Jan; Dec.- | Nov.- Feb, Jan. Feb.
1998 1998! 1997 | Feb? Jan’ | — Dec. 1998 1998" 1997 | Feb.98/97
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments . . 187,104 | 183,005 | 185,337 42.2 +14] 187926 | 159,974 175,478
New orders’: 184,024 | 187,192 | 184,456 17 -53 | 185,967 | 172272 | 181,281 42.6
Unfilled orders 516,287 | 519/367 | 515,180 06 -02 | 520/526 | 522,485 | 504,426 3.2
Excluding defen:
Shipments. 180,584 | 176,508 | 179,057 423 +18 | 181,248 | 154,668 | 168,978 473
New orders 178,622 | 179,708 | 177,525 -06 5.9 | 180/565 | 164,894 | 175,677 +238
Unfilled orde 412241 | 414,203 | 411,003 -0.5 -0.4 | 415,745 | 416,428 | 393,300 +57
With. jinfilted orders :
Shi : 154,150 | 150,963 | 151,888 42.1 -0.6 1.1] 152,953 | 131,148 | 141,737 +19
Rew" orders ” 151,070 | 155,150 | 151,007 26 42.7 6.9 | 150,994 | 143,446 | 147/540 423
15372 15,261 15,925 14,630 15,664 +17
15,039 15,362 42.1 3.5 16,53 15,682 16,619 0.5
33,878 34,211 35,000 34,389 30,884 +133
36,059 | 35,643 35,507 35,550 | 30,151 31,740 +12.0
36,546 35,409 34,635 43.2 +22 +18 36,195 30,967 32,886 +101
Uatuled ‘ordeis : 73,093 72,606 72,840 4 - 74,369 73,724 74,661 04
Electronic and other
electrical equipmen
Shipments 30,860 | 29,600 | 30,605 +43 +15 30,051 25,036 | 27,527
New orders 30,390 31,242 30,583 27 43.5 29,372 29,958 30,075 2.3
Unfilled orders 56,209 56,679 35,037 08 00 5104 537,783 34,172

Transportation equipment :

Shipments 43,746 42,607 43,447 42.7 16 43,854
41,642 5. 185

New orders.

Unfilled orde’s . .

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :

Shipments. 36,384 | 55,680 | 54,680] +13 a] +15] 5417] 44,938 | 48,202] +1
54572 | 59/438] 52,855 82 | +125] -184 2841 | Sill | 50,361 +49
Dated rues 370/937 | 372,749 | 368'991 i) -05 | 372/895 | 374:571 | 367,650 +
Nondefense :
Shipments. . 49,864 | 49,183 | 48400] +14] +16] +30] 47,839] 39632] 41,702 | +14.7
New orders: 49.170 1954 | 45924 54] +131] -218 | 47.430 | 43,733 | 44,757 +6.0
Unfilled orders!!! [| 266891 | 267/585 | 264;814 “0 +10 | "-09 | 268114 | 2687514 | 256,524 +45
Excluding aircraft and parts
Shipments 42,135 | 41,261 | 41,280 0.0 3 40,480 | 33,656 | 36,049 | +
New orders |): 42787 | 42°48 | 41132] 413. | 427] +16 | 41426 | 35/973 | 38,600 +73
Unfilled orders 103,423 | 102,771 | 101;784 410] — -01 | 104646 | 103,700 | 98,172 +66
Defense :
Shipments 6,520 6,497 6280 | +04] +35] -92 6.678 5,306 6,500
New orders 5,402 7,484 6931 | -278] +80) +147 5,402 7378 5,604
Unfilled orders 104046 | 105,164 | 104,177 “11 | 409] +06 | 104,781 6,057 | 111,126

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

"Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations
2 Based on aivane sample, Estimates of manufactures’ shipments, invent, and odes are subject 10 survey ror and revision. One major component of sey err i nonsampling eo, which ices eon of coverage
response and nonseporting. Since the survey panel isnot 2 probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannct be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annua
benchmark poblcation, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Taventories, and) Orders: 1987-1996.”
The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metabworking machinery, special industry
, general industrial computer and office ‘and distribution industrial apparatus, i on equipment,
Complete siferaf, missles, and space vehicles, aera missiles, and space , ipment, and search and navigation equipment.
ete copa poo ncteTM> ednace‘conmuncalon caimeat avcete mers, spice whet, and pats, chp, unis and ik conponcit sah and navigon efupee,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

‘Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1997-] Year ago Feb.] Feb. 1997-| Year ago Feb | Feb. 1997-

Feb. 1997 | 1993-1997] Jan. 1998 | Feb. 1997] 1993-1997] Jan, 1998] Feb. 1997] 1993-1997 | Jan. 1998

Durable goods 05 02 03 07 03 05S 05 02 02

Primary metals . 0.0 02 03 02 1.0 07 ol 06 03

Industrial machinery and equipment 04 07 06 On 05 07 03 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . Ls 05 05 03 04 10 07 4 05

Transportation equipment On 05 06 37 14 7 07 03 03

Nondefense capital goods 09 05 06 La 07 09 04 o1 02

Defense capital goods 0.0 oa 08 125 78 5.5 08 05 04

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

205 205
New Orders
195 F-- - - > rr rr rr rt rrr rtrd Shipments |-4 195
185 185
175 175
165 165
155 L L L L 1 L i 1 i i 1 L L 155
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1996 - Feb. 1998
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

59 59

New Orders
54f| Shipments | ---------------------------------- +54

39 Ln n n 1 1 L i n n n L n Li39

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1996 - Feb. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.