ECONOMICS

TATES DEPARTMENT OF AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
= BUREAU OF THE
= WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 September 27, 2000
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-00-159

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(00)-08

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
‘August 2000

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $6.1 billion or 2.9 percent to $216.1
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 13.1 percent July decrease and
is the third increase in the last four months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Year-to-date, new
orders are 9.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.0 billion or 6.5 percent to $49.3 billion, due to aircraft and parts.
This is the third increase in the last four months. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.1 billion or 2.8
percent to $39.2 billion, due to electronic components. Industrial machinery and equipment, up five of the last six months,
increased $0.7 billion or 1.5 percent to $46.5 billion. Primary metals decreased slightly, 0.2 percent to $15.6 billion.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in August increased $2.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $214.7 billion, following a
2.4 percent July decrease. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.5 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 1.7 percent to $47.5 billion, due to aircraft and parts.

This is the third increase in the last four months. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up five of the last six months,

increased $0.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $41.2 billion, mostly due to communication equipment. Industrial machinery and

equipment increased $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $44.6 billion. Primary metals decreased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to
15.8 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in August increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $555.3
billion, following a 0.4 percent July decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up fourteen consecutive months, had the
largest increase, $1.9 billion or 2.1 percent to $91.9 billion. Transportation equipment increased $1.7 billion or 0.7 percent
to $244.2 billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $2.0 billion or 1.9 percent to $99.7 billion. Primary
metals decreased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $30.7 billion. This is the tenth consecutive decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in August increased $1.1 billion or 18.2 percent to $7.2
billion. This is the third increase in the last four months. Shipments decreased $0.3 billion or 3.9 percent to $6.3 billion.
This is the fourth decrease in the last five months. Unfilled orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $108.9 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August increased $3.5 billion or 5.6 percent to
$65.8 billion. Shipments increased $2.9 billion or 4.8 percent to $63.8 billion. This is the largest increase since February
1996. Unfilled orders increased $2.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $275.5 billion. This is the eighth increase in the last nine
months. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $55.6 billion; shipments, up six
consecutive months, increased $0.9 billion or 1.6 percent to $55.0 billion; and unfilled orders, up twelve consecutive
months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $129.0 billion.

© REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $377.9
billion (revised from $379.5 billion); new orders, $375.4 billion (revised from $377.6 billion); unfilled orders, $579.6 billion
(revised from $580.2 billion); and total inventories, $486.3 billion (revised from $485.2 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published October 4, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled for October 27,
2000 at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through STAT-USA/Internet at www.stat-usa.gov.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jut June | July; | June. | May- Aug, Jul Aug.
2000" 2000 | Aug? | ‘July’ | June 200 2000" 19: 00/99
DURABLE GOODS
Total :

Shipments. socceeess | 214708 | 212,369 | 217643 | +11 24] +13 | 211441 | 180,273 | 203,223 +4.0

New orders 2ol1s | 209978 | 24L7aB} 429] 131 | +92 | 2100735 | 1854617 | 200162 $3.2

Untilled orders 555,331 553,921 556,312 +03 04 +45 556,350 557,056 498,535 +116

Exgluding defense :

Shipments . 208,404 | 205,812 | 210,595 | +13 23] +09] 205445 | 174,516 | 197,010 +43
New orders _ 208,906 | 203:880 | 2211070 | +25 “78 | +32. | 205,137 | 181235 | 200,495 423
Unfilled orders. 2222.22 446.459 | 445/957 | 447/889 | +01 s04 | +24 | 448:257 | 448565 | 407,377 100
With unfilled orders =
Shipments . 180,952 | 177.687 | 180,709 | +1.8 -u7] +12 | 177,532 | 155,283 } 165,533 472
New orders : 182,362 | 175,296 | 204,812 | +40 144] +106 | 176.826 | 1600627 | 166,472 +62
Primary metals :
Shipments. . 15,848 | 15,933 | 16,092 + -Lo] +0. 15,888 | 14,491 43.9
New orders. 15,595 15,622 15,991 0.2 23 +08 15,367 14,240 “12
Unfilled orders 30,726 | 30/979 | 31.290 : 10] 03 | 300529 | 31050 “4.0
Industrial machinery and equipment:

Shipments 44,565 | 44,285 | 42,086 | +06] +52] 09] 41,946] 39.096 | 36,108 | +162
New orders ph 4o480 | 45'809 | 43612 | #15] +50] 40.1 | 43930 | 40,864 | 36.479 | 4204
Unfilled orders n 91309 | 80/984 | 88460 | 321 +17] #18] 91265 | 39281 | 78889 | 415.7

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments... . 41199 | 40,785 | 41316} +10 “13 1] 39,724] 35,996 | 34,123 | +164
New orders 39231 | 38161 | 47067 | +28] -189] -05 | 36,907 | 40340 | 37.824 24
Unfilled orders re 99:704 | 101.672 | 104,296 “19 25 8] 100/564 | 103381 | 73.728 | +364
Transportation equipment :
Shipments woe 47508 | 46,725 | 52,256} +17] -106 47,355 | 31,521 | 51,079 13
New orders 21!) 49253 | 46.253 | 681467 | +65] 324] +416] 48.494] 312075 | _ 48.278 +04
Unfilled orders’: 244.170 | 242/425 | 242/897 | +0.7 “0.2 244,748 | 243,600 | 227/404 476
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 70087 | 67.ane | gs.oge | 43.9 23] +03] 66172 | 59,157 | 39.634] +110
New orders 72/984 great | +67 | 254] 4348 | 67.719 | 59453 | 56122 | 4207
Unfilled orders saazse | 3839 | ssoao | 168] Fos] “63 | a880d8 | serSor | 3atsa3 | 123
Nondefense :
Shipments. . . 63,786 | 60,877 | 61.938 | +48 17] 1.0 | 60,176 | 53,400 | 53.421 +12.6
New orders 65,775 62,295 70,943 +5.6 12.2 +16.6 62,121 55,071 52,455 +184
Unfilled orders 275.464 | 273475 | 272,057 | +0.7 | +05 | 43.4 | 274955 | 273,010 | 250,165 +99
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . -{ 34,955] $4,083 | $3,548 +10 $1,656 | 47.685 | 44.621 +158
New orders |! 1! 55575 | 35,499 | 57636 | +0.1 -3.7| +75 | 321232 | 49354 | 44374 | +177
Unfilled orders... - | 129,047 | 1281427 | 127/011 1} 433 | 128538} 127962 | 1091243 | -+17.7
Defense :
Shipments... . . 6,301 6.557 7,050 39 70) +132 5,996 5.157 6,213 35
New orders | | a 7209 6,098 | 20.678 | +182} -705] 189.2 51598 4.382 31667 | +52.7
Unfilled orders’: : 108/872 | 107,964 | 108,423 | +0.8 04 | +144 | 108,093 | 10891 | 91158 | +186

(NA) Nox available, * Revise.

* Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and ace adjusted fur tradingslay and caendar-mont variations; unfilled ders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted fr trading-day or ealendar-monkh variations

* Based ox advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipmens, inventories, and orders are suhjeut to survey ecror and sevision, One major component of survey error ws nonsampling error, which inchades extors of coverage:
response and nonvepoting. Since the survey panel is not x probability sample, estimates of sampling ercor cannot be calevated, Further details on survey design, methodology, amd data limitatinas are contained in our most recent enn
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondetense + oninance and aevessories, steam engines and turbines, internal curbustion engines, ge 2. special indus
cao euproent

complete aicraft, missiles, und space vehicles, aireralt missiles, and space vehicle eng .
Defense capital goods include = ordnance, communication equipment, aiscraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry ‘Year ago ‘Aug. | Aug. 1999-| Year ago ‘Aug. | Aug, 1999-] Year ago ‘Aug. Aug. 1999-

Aug, 1999 | 1995-1999 | July 2000 | Aug. 1999 | 1995-1999 | July 2000] Aug. 1999] 1995-1999] July 2000
Durable goods .. . 33 08 17 Ol 02 46 03 02 1.0
Primary metals 05 13 12 1.0 18 08 06 12
Industrial machinery and equipment 09 05 29 01 03 33 12 04 Og

Electronic and other

electrical equipment... . . 04 05 18 16 12 96 02 04 27
‘Transportation equipment 94 26 65 Lo 14 27 02 02 14
Nondefense capital goods 14 \7 3.0 04 06 63 1.0 03 La
Defense capital goods . . 0.2 07 5.3 3.6 38 43 02 0.2 28

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard 1
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

230 230
New Orders

220 F-| Shipments f - - - - --- > >>> 5-55 re etree -----4 220
210

200

190

180 1 1 1 1 rn 1 1 L L 1 1 L 1. 180

Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1998 - Aug. 2000
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
67 67
New Orders
62}}| Shipments |} .---------------------------- -= +4 62
Cy +457
62 S- <- NX - ff -- - 7 Te eee +452
47 1 1 L 1 1 1 L L 1 1 J, 1 L 47
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

Aug. 1998 - Aug. 2000

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.