Last printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

Aggregate Data

Mission

Launch

Date

T-0 Flight 

Azimuth

Debris 

Ec 1 10

Blast

Ec 3

Toxic

Ec

Over flight

Ec

Total

Ec

Notes

Delta II 

7925

Koreasat 1/14/96

0610L

N 93 11 x 10-60

 2

0

10.6x10-6

 5

 8

21.6x10-6

Debris Risk same as Delta II 

Bonum

11/22/98

Atlas

II AS

Palapa-C 1/31/96

2015L

N 97.1 1.8x10-60

 2

0

.23x10-6

 5 2.03x10-6

Debris same as Atlas IIAS 

Hispasat

2/03/00

Atlas

IIA

Inmarsat 4/3/96

1801L

N 104.8 4.97x 10-60

 2

0

2.06x10-7

 6 5.17x10-6

Debris same as Atlas IIA 

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas I SAX 4/30/96

0031L

N 105.1 <4.97x 10-60

 2

0

6.73x10-7

 6 <5.6x 10-6

Atlas

IIA

GE-1 9/8/86

1749L

N 96.5 4.97x 10-60

 4

0

7.2x10-7

 6 5.69x 10-6

Debris risk same as Atlas IIA 

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas 

IIA

Hotbird-2 11/21/96

1547L

N 97.7 4.97x 10-60

 2

0

9.7x10-7

 6 5.94x 10-6

Debris risk same as Atlas IIA 

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas

IIA

Inmarsat 12/18/96

2057L

N 104.8 4.97x 10-60

 2

0

2.8x10-7

 6 5.25x 10-6

Debris risk same as Atlas IIA 

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas

IIAS

JCSAT-4 2/17/97

2042L

N 95.4 1.8x10-60

 2

0

.23x10-6

 5 2.03x10-6

Debris same as Atlas IIAS 

Hispasat

2/03/00

Atlas

IIA

Tempo-2 3/08/97

0101L

N 96.46 4.97x 10-60

 7

0

6.43x10-7

 6 5.6x 10-6

Debris risk same as Atlas IIA 

Hotbird 5

10/9/98

Atlas I GOES 4/25/97

0149L

N 97.2 <4.97x 10-60

 4

0

5.56x10-8

 6 <5 x 10-6

Delta II

7925

THOR IIA 5/20/97

1838L

N 97.5 7.2x 10-60

 2

0

10.6x10-6

 5

 8

17.8x10-6

Debris like Delta II THOR #1

6/9/98

Atlas 

IIAS

Superbird 

C

7/28/97

2115L

N 94.7 1.8x10-60

 2

0

.23x10-6

 5 2.03x10-6

Debris same as Atlas IIAS 

Hispasat

2/03/00

Atlas 

IIAS

GE-3 9/4/97

0803L

D 105.7 30 x10-6

 9

0

 2

0

.23x10-6

 5 30.23x10-6

1 Debris Run

1 by Tom Lu

1 – 27 Aug 01
Last printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

Mission

Launch

Date

T-0 Flight 

Azimuth

Debris 

Ec 1 10

Blast

Ec 3

Toxic

Ec

Overflight

Ec

Total

Ec

Notes

Atlas 

IIAS

Echostar 10/06/97

1701L

N 94 1.8x10-60

 7

0

.23x10-6

 5 2.03x10-6

Debris same as Atlas IIAS 

Hispasat

2/03/00

Atlas

II AS

Galaxy-81 12/08/97

1852L

N 93.5 1.8x10-60

 2

0

.23x10-6

 5 2.03x10-6

Debris same as Atlas IIAS 

Hispasat

2/03/00

Delta II

7925

Skynet 4D 1/9/98

0032L

N 97.5 6.8x 10-60

 2

0

10.6x10-6

 8

 5

17.4x10-6 Debris same as Bonum

11/22/98

Delta II

7420

Globalstar 2/14/98

0934L

W 65 7.06x 10-60

 2

0

5.99x10-6

 6 13.05x 10-6

Atlas

IIA

Intelsat 2/27/98

1921L

N 95.6 1.68x 10-60

 2

0

.23x10-6

 5 1.91x 10-6

Delta II

7420

Globalstar 

2

4/24/98

1838L

N 65 8.59x 10-60

 4

0

5.99x10-6

 6 14.58x 10-6

Delta II

7925

Thor III 6/9/98

2035L

N 97.5 7.2x 10-60

 2

0

10.6x10-6

 8

 5

17.8x 10-6

Atlas 

IIAS

Intelsat 6/18/98

1848L

N 95.6 2.72 x10-60

 7

0

.23x10-6

 5 2.95x 10-6

Delta III

8930

Galaxy 8/26/98

2117L

N 98.5 30x 10-60

 2

0

1.15x10-6

 6 31.15x 10-6 Violates FAA Criteria

Atlas

IIA

Hotbird 5 10/9/98

1701L

N 95.9 4.97x 10-60

 2

0

1.5x10-6

 6 5.12 x 10-6

Delta II

7925

Bonum 11/22/98

1854L

N 95 11.25x 10-60

 7

0

10.6x10-6

 8

 5

21.85x10-6

Athena I ROCSAT 1/26/99 1934L

N

112.2 3.56x10-60 0

2.31x10-6

 6 5.87x10-6

All persons within ILL 

evacuated.

Athena II

Lunar

Prospector 1/6/98 2128L

N

97.3 1.3x10-60 0

565.57x10-

6

 5

 8

566.87x10-6

All persons within ILL 

evacuated.
Last printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

Mission

Launch

Date

T-0 Flight 

Azimuth

Debris 

Ec 1 10

Blast

Ec 3

Toxic

Ec

Overflight

Ec

Total

Ec

Notes

Atlas 

IIAS

JCSAT 2/15/99

2045L

N 96.7 .97x10-60

 7

0

.23x10-6

 5 1.2x10-6

Atlas

II AS

Eutelsat 4/12/99

1850L

N 97.6 1.19x10-60

 2

0

.23x10-6

 5 1.42x10-6

Delta III

8930

Orion 5/4/99

2100L

N 98.5 30x 10-6

 9

0 57x10-6

 4

1.15x10-6

 5 88x10-6

Scrubbed due to toxic

4/5/99

Delta II

7420

Globalstar 6/10/99

0948L

D 65 30x 10-6

 9

0

 2

0

5.99x10-6

 6 35.99x 10-6 Violates FAA Criteria

Delta II

7420

Globalstar 7/10/99

0445L

N 65 9.05x 10-60 114x10-6 

 4

5.99x10-6

 6 129.1x 10-6 Violates FAA Criteria

Delta II

7420

Globalstar 7/25/99

0334L

N 65 9.14x 10-60

 2

0

5.99x10-6

 6 15.138x 10-6

Atlas

IIAS Echostar 9/23/99

0202L

N 93.9 .487x 10-60

 7

0

.23x10-6

 5 .72x 10-6

Delta II

7420

Globalstar 8/17/99

0037L

N 65 16.2x10-60

 4

0 

5.99x10-6

 6 22.19x10-7

Atlas

IIAS

Hispasat 2/3/00

1830L

N 98 1.8x10-60

 2

0

.23x10-6

 5 2.03 X10-6

Delta II

7420

Globalstar 2/8/00

1624L

N 65 7.03x 10-60

 2

0

5.99x10-6

 6 13.02x10-6

Atlas 

IIIA

Eutelsat 5/24/00

1910L

N 101.6 <11x10-60

 2

0

4.16x10-6

 5 <15.16x10-6

Atlas 

IIAS

Echostar 7/14/00

0121L

N 93.8 .77x 10-60

 2

0

.23x10-6

 5 1 x 10-6

Delta III

8930

DM-F3 8/23/00

0705L

D 98.5 30 x 10-6

 9

0

 4

0 

1.15x10-6

 5 31.15x 10-6 Violates FAA Criteria
Last printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

NOTES:

1. Expected casualties for non-mission essentials and visitors located inside/outside the launch impact limit lines on CCAFS/KSC.

Does not include ship/boat/airplane risks.

2. Predicted toxic plume vent to sea.

3. Blast risk for general public outside CCAFS/KSC

Boundaries are always O for these vehicle configurations.

4. Predicted toxic plume stayed on land but did not leave CCAFS/KSC properly. Non-mission essential and visitors were evacuated/sheltered

as required.

5. Expected casualties for over flight of Africa are from Air Force analysis of National Academy of Sciences recommendation to eliminate

Antigua’s FTS assets.

6. Expected casualties for overflight are from users as provided to National Academy of Sciences 13 August 1999. These user predictions

are being reevaluated by Range Safety for future launches.

7. Predicted toxic plume vent beyond CCAFS/KSC property, but concentration of toxic vapor was below injury threshold (i.e. no casualties).

8. Assumes 100% of 3rd stage solid propellant survives reentry environment prior to impacting the earth.

9. Non-mission essential/visitors on CCAFS/KSC relocated/sheltered to lower debris risk to 30 x 10-6.

10. Expected casualties from debris hazards determined using Range Safety’s risk assessment model “DAMP”.

11. Expected casualties from toxic hazards determined using Range Safety’s risk assessment model “LATRA”.

SYMBOLS: N – Night D – Day W - Weekend

OBSERVATIONS:

- Of the 37 commercial launches from CCAFS (1/14/96 – 8/23/00), that we have complete information for:

At least 35 had aggregated Ec’s less than or equal to approximately 30 x 10-6.

- Of the 37 launches, 34 took place at night or the weekend; when the CCAFS/KSC population is reduced to approximately 3,000

(versus approximately 23,000 during the day).

- All three of the day launches had an aggregated Ec greater or less than 30 x 10-6.

-

CONCLUSION:

- If more launches had taken place during the day, many more launches would have had aggregated Ec’s greater or less than 30 x 10-6.
Last printed 2/12/2014 9:26:00 AM

Distant Focusing Overpressure Public Risk Estimates at Launch: Data for Titan and STS for FY 97, 98, and 00

Launch

Date

Blast

Ec x10-6

 

Notes

STS-80 11/19/96 16 ACTA Rept. 97-350/4.1-01

STS-81 1/12/97 173 ACTA Rept. 97-350/4.1-01

Titan IV B-23 2/23/97 87 ACTA Rept. 97-350/4.1-01

STS-83 4/4/97 243 ACTA Rept. 97-350/4.1-01

STS-94 7/1/97 73 ACTA Rept. 97-350/4.1-01

STS-85 8/7/97 1380 ACTA Rept. 97-350/4.1-01

STS-86 9/25/97 8 ACTA Rept. 97-350/4.1-01

Titan IV B-33 10/15/97 29 ACTA Rept. 98-370/9.1-01

Titan IV A-17 11/7/97 55 ACTA Rept. 98-370/9.1-01

STS-87 11/19/97 225 ACTA Rept. 98-370/9.1-01

STS-89 1/22/98 115 ACTA Rept. 98-370/9.1-01

STS-90 4/17/98 59 ACTA Rept. 98-370/9.1-01

Titan IV B-25 5/8/98 0.7 ACTA Rept. 98-370/9.1-01

STS-91 6/2/98 907 ACTA Rept. 98-370/9.1-01

Titan IV A-20 8/12/98 0.02 ACTA Rept. 98-370/9.1-01

STS-95 10/29/98 157 ACTA Rept. 99-400/11.1-01

STS-88 12/4/98 145 ACTA Rept. 99-400/11.1-01

Titan IV B-27 4/9/99 0.0006 ACTA Rept. 99-400/11.1-01

Titan IV B-32 4/30/99 189 ACTA Rept. 99-400/11.1-01

Titan IV B-12 5/22/99 220 ACTA Rept. 99-400/11.1-01

STS-96 5/27/99 158 ACTA Rept. 99-400/11.1-01

STS-93 7/23/99 75 ACTA Rept. 99-400/11.1-01

STS-103 12/17/99 297 ACTA Rept. 00-430/16.1-01

STS-99 2/11/00 0.3 ACTA Rept. 00-430/16.1-01

Titan IV B-29 5/8/00 87 ACTA Rept. 00-430/16.1-01

STS-101 5/19/00 456 ACTA Rept. 00-430/16.1-01

Titan IV B-28 8/17/00 11 ACTA Rept. 00-430/16.1-01

STS-106 9/8/00 551 ACTA Rept. 00-430/16.1-01

These data show 8 of 21 launches with Blast DFO EC below 30E-6, 7 of 21 launches with Blast DFO EC above 30E-6 and below 100E-6, and 13 of 21 launches with Blast DFO EC above 100E-6