Overview of Census Bureau’s 

Population Estimates Program

Media Webinar

January 19, 2012

Webinar access information

Toll free number: 888-982-4490

Passcode: 2011POPEST

URL: https://www.mymeetings.com/nc/join/

Conference/meeting number: PW2702879

Conference/meeting passcode: 2011POPEST
Speakers

Host Michael Cook

Acting Chief, Public 

Relations and Events Branch

Public Information Office

Presentation Gregory Harper

Statistician

Population Division
Overview

• What estimates do we produce?

• What is the connection between the 

decennial census count and the population 

estimates?

• Why do we produce population estimates?

• How do we produce population estimates?

• When are the population estimates released?

• Where can you find the population 

estimates?
What estimates data do we produce?

• Resident population

– Totals

• National, state, county, sub-county, and Puerto Rico Commonwealth 

and municipios

– Demographic characteristics

• National, state, and county

– Age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

• Puerto Rico Commonwealth and municipios

– Age and sex

• Other data

– Components of change

• Births, deaths, and migration (domestic and international)

– Housing units

– Population universes

• Resident plus armed forces overseas, civilian, civilian 

noninstitutionalized, and household
What is the Connection Between the 

Population Estimates and the Decennial 

Census Count?

• The decennial census is an actual count of the 

population that is conducted every 10 years and 

has a reference date of April 1.

• The population estimates use administrative 

data to estimate population change between 

census years.

• The population estimates use the decennial 

census count as a starting point.
Why do we produce estimates?

Federal Mandate

The Intercensal Estimates Program is required 

under U.S.C. Title 13, Section 181:

“During the intervals between each census of 

population...the Secretary, to the extent feasible, should 

annually produce and publish for each State, county, 

and local unit of general purpose government which has 

a population of fifty thousand or more, current data on 

total population and population characteristics and, to 

the extent feasible, shall biennially produce and publish 

for other local units of general purpose government 

current data on total population.” 
Why do we produce estimates?

Data Uses

• Allocation of federal funds

• Population controls for federal surveys

– Current Population Survey (CPS)

– American Community Survey (ACS)

– Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP)

– American Housing Survey (AHS)
Why do we produce estimates?

Data Uses (cont.)

• Denominators for statistical rates

– Birth and death rates

• National Center for Health Statistics

– Per capita income 

• Bureau of Economic Analysis

• Program Planning

– Location of public and private services
How do we produce estimates?

National level:

Cohort-component method

P2 = P1 + B - D + NIM 

where : P1 = Population at time 1

P2 = Population at time 2

B = Births

D = Deaths

NIM = Net international migration

State and county level:

Component of change method

P2 = P1 + B - D + NIM + DM (domestic migration)

(controlled to the national estimates)

Subcounty level:

Distributive housing unit method

County population distributed to subcounty parts based on updated 

estimates of housing units
When are estimates data available?

• Schedule for the July 2011 Estimates:

Release Date Product

December 21, 

2011

National and state totals (including Puerto 

Rico) 

January 5, 2012 State population age 18 and over

April 5, 2012 County and Puerto Rico municipio totals, 

metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area 

totals

May 17, 2012 National, state, and county demographic detail

June 14, 2012 National, state, county housing units

June 28, 2012 City, town, and other subcounty area totals
Where are estimates data available ?




Questions?
Releases

• 2010 Census Summary File 2 – Ongoing 

release of state files (Dec. 2011- April 2012)

• 2010 Census Brief: The American Indian and 

Alaska Native Population: 2010 (Jan. 25)

• Annual Survey of Public Employee Retirement 

Systems: 2010 (Jan. 26)

• 2010 Service Annual Survey (Jan. 31)

• Super Bowl XLVI (Feb. 5)

• Educational Attainment Data Products (late 

Feb.)
For Further Information

Media Public Information Office

301-763-3030

General Public Customer Services Center

1-800-923-8282 or 

(301) 763-INFO (4636)