— ECQNOMICS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND
STATISTICS.

ADMINISTRATION

Rif tase

= i U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

iW. WE ws WASHINGTON, DC 20230

U.S. Census Bureau For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

For Data - (301) 763-4673 January 28, 2003

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832 CB-03-21

M3-1(02)-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
December 2002

{All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars and exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

© NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in December increased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $170.1 billion, the Department of
Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.3 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1
percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. New orders for 2002 were 0.1 percent below the prior year.

Computers and electronic products had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 3.2 percent to $26.0 billion, due to computers and related products, which
increased by $0.8 billion. Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $0.9 billion or 1.9 percent to $49.5 billion, due to motor vehicles and
parts, which decreased by $1.6 billion.

@ SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in December decreased $2.6 billion or 1.5 percent to $170.8 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent
November decrease. Shipments for 2002 were 0.6 percent below the prior year.

Transportation equipment, at the lowest level since September 2001, had the largest decrease, $2.3 billion or 4.4 percent to $49.0 billion, led by motor
vehicles and parts, which decreased by $1.5 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in December, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent to
$476.9 billion and were at the lowest level since September 1996. This followed a 0.8 percent November decrease.

Fabricated metal products had the largest decrease, $0.6 billion or 1.7 percent to $37.7 billion, the lowest level since February 1997. Machinery
decreased $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $44.7 billion, the lowest level since March 1994. Primary metals decreased $0.3 billion or 2.2 percent to
$14.9 billion, and was the lowest level since the current series began in 1992.

@ INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in December increased $2.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $265.1 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent
November decrease and was the first increase since January 2001.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.7 billion or 3.9 percent to $72.9 billion, led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which increased by
$1.9 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in December increased $1.0 billion or 17.4 percent to $6.7 billion. Shipments
decreased $0.7 billion or 10.0 percent to $6.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $122.9 billion. Inventories increased
$0.5 billion or 2.7 percent to $19.0 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in December increased $1.5 billion or 2.8 percent to $56.0 billion. Shipments
decreased $0.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $55.5 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $209.0 billion. Inventories increased
$0.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $112.6 billion, which was the first increase since January 2001.

© REVISED November DATA Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $319.7 billion
(revised from $319.3 billion); shipments, $323.4 billion (revised from $323.7 billion); unfilled orders, $477.7 billion (revised from $476.9 billion);
and total inventories, $428.0 billion (revised from $427.8 billion).

Effective with the January 2003 press release, there will be some minor changes to the advance press release. Year-to-date comparisons in the text
will be based on the sum of data that has not been seasonally adjusted. Table 1 will show two new columns of year-to-date data, and the percent
change will be based on year-to-date rather than same month current year over prior year.

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published February 4, 2003 at 10:00 A.M EST. The advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled for February
27 at 8:30 AM EST.


Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments and New Orders
[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted "
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
item Change
Dec Nov oct Nov = oct Sep Dec | Nov Dec Dec
2002? | 2002 2002 Dec? Nov! ‘Oct 2002? | 2002" 2001 02/01
DURABLE GooDS
Shipments. soe 170,806] 173,418] 176,241 15 16 1.3] 168,048] 170.577] 170.994 1.4
New Orders : 170.063] 169.691] 171/895 02 13 13] 170.242] 168.339] 170,087 on
Excluding transportation:*
‘Shigments 7 121.814] 122,150] 122,847 0.3 0.3 0.8] 121,979] 119,082] 120,879 09
New Orders... Sc] a20'ssof 199,231] 121.719 vm 2.9 ve} 120,628] 116,195] 119.776 07
Excluding detense: 5
Shisments 163.160] 165.026] 168,471 aa 29 1.5] 159,023] 161,858] 161,230 14
New Orders. 162.257] 162.572] 166.367 0.2 23 3:8] 187.143] 189:345] 18,080] 06
Manufacturing wih united order
aU ANDMENS rns cen] — 198,925] 121,349] 122,706 2.9] 1.4 o.af 119,933] 119,358] 123,205} “27
New Orders ci) anetta2]197%592] 118/360 a5 06 os] 122,127] 118,120] 122.878 a6
Primary metals:
Shipments. 11,146, 1,187] 11.381 0.4] 17 0.3 9.626] 10,8521 9,208 45
New Orders. 10/812) 10,627] 11/210 17 5.2 12 9,603 9,983 9,457 15
Fabricated metal products:
Shipments.es 20,973] 21,052} 21,330 -0.4] 13 0.0] 19,1221 20,500] 18,824 16
New Orders. 20,328] 20'86a|_— 21449 "4 44 v7] 18.045] 19,973] 18.247 Mm
Machinegy:
‘Shipments. 22,350 22,683 22,769] 15 -0.4| oi} 22,198] 21,349] 22,1591 02
New Orders. 22oia| 21/910] 22/519] 08 2:7] 24} 21/222 20'875| 21485 aa
Computers and electronic products:*
ompurgripmentsicen ese 25,956| 26,103 26,356! 0.6| 1.0 1.0] 31,733] 26,086] 33,802
New Orders 28:957| 251188] 25.521 3.2 14 27| 321786] 25,356] 34,236
Computers and related products:
Shipments 6.567 6,095 7,105 19 5.8 5.3 8,817] 6,270 5.0
New Orders... : 7327 8.712 71138 121 8.0 33 9,469] 6,654] mM
Communications eqvioment
Shipments... 5,108 5,516| 5,165] 74 6.8 37 7,199] 5,686 8,753 478
New Oiders.. aun 31927 4984] 5,302| 21.3] 6.0] 63.1 6'285| 5.453 8.761 28.3
Semiconductor
EME (wal (Nal (NA) (Nay way (NA) (NA) way (Nay (way
New Orders... (Na) (Na) (NA) ial} (NA) (Na) NA) (Na) (NA) (NA
Electrical equipment, appliances,
‘and components:
Shpments... 8,966 9.113 9.014 16 1 13 9,146 8,958] 9,438 3.1
New Orders... 8,983 8.891 8.957] 19 07 13 9,043} 8,734] 3,080 a8
Transportation equipment:
‘Shipments. 48,992] 51,268] 53.694 4.4) 45 23] 46,069) 51.495 49,515) 7.0
Now Order 49,513] 80,460] 50.176 13 or 4a] 49613] 0,148] 50,291 13
Motor vehicles and parts:
ipments. 35,036] 36,522] 39,307 41 3.6] 29,395] 36,263 30,891 48
New Orders 35,083] 36,695] 39,060] 45 36] 29,785] 36,582 31,284! 4.8
Nondefense aircraft and parts:
Shipmentsscscscsse es 5,954] 6,085 6.331 2.2 3 0.4 7,559 6,264] 9,579] 21.0
New Orders 6.882| 5.667 4641 244] 224 7 a3i8 5,536 8,387 “0.8
Defense aircraft and parts:
RpMeNtS.onset eens 2,576 3.215 2,914 19.9 10.3 6.9 3,268] 3,497 3,218] 16
New Orders... 2662 2'928 21628 a 1135 81 41529] 2.737] 31387 338
All other durable goods:
‘Shipments. 32,423] 32,012 31,6971 13 1.9 19] 30,154] 31,537] 27,449] 9.9
New Orders 32,456] 32,083] 321063 13] 01 2:2} 28,920] 31/s9a) 27,281 37
Capital goods:
SNioments 61.807] 63,105] 63,667 24 o.s| 0.9] 69,301] 61,628] 73,444 5.6
New Orders 62:747| 60.2271 59.476 42 13 1.6| 73,103] 89,018] 73,539] “0.6
Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments... . $5,462] 56.057] §7.087 Ma 1.3 1.2] 61,936] 54.267] 65,466 84
New Orders......n. 56.030] 54.804] 85.213 2a v3 aial 611738] 53,197] 62/699] 18
Excluding aircraft:
‘Shipments... . 52,709} 53.180] 53,890 og “1.3 1.4] 58,180] 51.261] $9,400 24
New Orders... s1ai9f 51.860] 83.517 01 31 sa] 56,5261 50.424] 57,508 17
Defense capital goods:
Shipments.2. 6,345 7,048 6.610 10.0 6.6 13 7,365} 7,362 7,978 17
New Orders... 6.717 5.723 4,263 17.4 38.2 43/5] 11/368 5821] 10,640] 68
NA Not Available “Revised

| Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and ate adjusted for wading-day and ealendar-month variations: unfled orders and total inventories ae a8 of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted
for tading-day oF calendar-month variatir

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers shipments inventories, and orders are subject to survey err
fe survey panel is not a probabilty sample, estimates of sampling
pubkcotion, Current nduetial Reports; M3101

2 The Capital Goods Inusies include Nondefense: small arms and ordnance: farm machinery and equipment: construction machinery: mining, ol. and gas fed machinery; industial machinery; vending, laundry.
and other mi tographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment: pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery:
ticewonis computer: Computer storage device: other computer perphersl equpment:communcations equipment search and navigation equipment: kecvomedical, measuring, and conte instruments:
slectical equipment; other electizal equipment, applances, and components; heavy duty Uucks aera. road rling stock ships and boets;ofce and inattutonal furiure: and medical equipment and
supplies

Betense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles. space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

ison. One maior component of survey error is nonsampling ror, which includes
‘cannot be calculated. Further details oF ‘de ology.
snufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories,

* Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry di
Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor

Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey. the
ipments, orders, or inventories.

* Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor
shipments, orders, or inventories,


Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories
{Millions of Dollars}

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted '
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Dec Nov Oct Oct Sep Dec Nov Dec Dec
2002? | 2002 2002 Nov Oct 2002 2002" 2001 | 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:*
Untilled Orders. 477,678) 481,405] 02 0.8 og] 471,373} 469,179] 501,958] 6.1
Total Inventories 262.630| 263,040] ro) 0.2 0.2] 258,191] 264,262] 267.754 3.6
Excluding transportation:*
Unfitfed Orders. 228,868] 230.132) 233,051 05 1.3 0.4] 225,234] 226,584) 248,327 9.3
Total Inventories. j921213]  192.46a] 192,142 O14 02 0.2| 187.420] 192.979] 195/542] 42
xcluding defense:
Unfilled Orders 333,505] 334,408] 336,862] -0.3) 0.7] 0.6] 328,328] 330,206] 361,260} 9.1
Total Inventories 242/423] 280,694) 241,100 07 0.2 O14] 236.101] 242,228] 245,743 3.9
Manufacturing with unfilled orders:*
Unfilled Orders. 476,935] 477,678] 481.405] 0.2 0.8 0.9] 471,373] 469,173] 501.958] 6.1
Total inventories. : 215.897] 213,441] 213,786 if) 0.2 0.1] 210,527} 214.911) 220.024) 4:3
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders. - .] 14,879) 15,213) 15,773] 2.2 3.6 aif 14,273] 14,296] 16,103 Wa
Total Inventories, 18,697] 18,630] 18.476 0.4 08 04) 48.966] 18,815] 19.308 18
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders. 37,675] 38,320] 38,808 17) 1.3 0.3] 36,718] 37,795] 39,809 78
Total Inventories... 30,744] 30,855] 30.870 0.4 0.0 0.1] 30,083) 301582} 31.055] 34
Machinery:
Unfilled Orders 44,742) 45,078] 45,851 0.7 1.7] 0.5{ 43,725] 44,701) 53.414] 18.1
Total Inventories... 44.844] 44.418] 441472 1.9) 0.1 0.4] 43,504] 44.783] 45,764] 4.9
Computers and electronic products:*
Unfilled Orders... 107,250] 107.249] 108, 196] 0.9) 0.9 0.8] 106,720} 105,657) 113,951 6.3
Total Inventories... 42,007| 42.657] 42.430 15] 05 0.2) 40,220] 43,107] 44/058} 87
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders. ...ecceoeecenee 7,829 6,869 6,852 14.0 02 05 7,703 7.051 6.804] 13.2
Total Inventories....sco cso 7.116 7.105 7,013 0.2 13 4.0 6.522 7,388 6.739 3.2
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 37,537| 38,718] 39,250 31 14 o4] 37,303] 38,217] 42,253 1.7
Total Inventories..... 8,722 9,269 9,081 5.9 2.0) -0.9) 8,381 91393) 10.971] -23.6
Semiconductors:°
Untilied Orders (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA (Nal (NA) (Nay (NA)
Total inventories. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA\} (NA) (NA) (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders 14.493] 14,476} 14,698] 01 15) 0.4] 14,212} 14,315] 14,876] 45
Total inventories... . 12,422] 12/521] 12/577 0.8 o4 “13 111978] 12,478] 13,140 “8.8
Transportation equipment
Unfilled Orders...... 248,067| 247,546] 248,354 0.2 -0.3 -1.4 246,139] 242,595] 253,631 “3.0
Total Inventories... 72,904] 70,166] 70,898 39 1.0 “0.1, 70,771] 71,283)” 72,212] 2.0
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders.c-.eccsoeecsseee 12,299] 12,286] 12,113 o1 14 -2.0] 12,173] 11,783) 12,193 0.2
Total inventories. | 20.708] 20,578] 20,673 06 0.5 0:2] 20,356] 20,711] 19,705] 3.3
Nondefense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders 113,206] 112,278) 112,696] 08 0.4 1s] 112,022 111,263] 123,343] 9.2
Total Inventories, 30,013| 28,163] 28,741 66 2.0) o1{ 28,894} 29,044] 30,808] 6.2
Defense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 57,240] 57,154] 57,441 0.2 0.5 0.5] 56,095] 54,843, 51,283 94
Total Inventories. 11/243] 10,750) 10/810) 46 06 1.0| 10,870) 10,823} 10,506} 35
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 9,829 9,796 9.725 0.3 07 39 9.586] 9,820] 10,174 5.8
Total Inventories. 43/505] 43,383) 43.317 03 02 0.2) 42.668] 43,198] 42.217 Ww
Capital goods:
inflled Orders......ooee. 331,916] 330,976| 333.854 0.3] 0.9) 1.2] 330,816] 327,014] 355,438] 6.9
Total Inventories. 131/557] 130,138 130,466] 1 0.3 0.8} 127,195] 131.847] 136'853 6.9
Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 208,975 208,407) 209,960 03 0.7 0.9] 207.263] 207,461] 230,788 10.2
Total inventories 112,560] 111,645} 112,027 08 0.3 0.8] 108.614] 113,414 118,137 81
Excluding aircra
Unfilled Orders....... 123,760] 124,650] 125.970] 0.7 1.9) 0.3] 122,048} 123,704] 136,907 10.9
Total Inventories. 89,795] 89,895 89,916 01 0.0 08} 86.763] 90,801) 93,687 74
Defense capital goods:
Unfilied Orders. 122,941] 122,56} 123.894] 03 1 1.9] 123,553] 119,853] 124,650) 09
Total inventories 18,997] 18,493| 18.439] 27 03) os] 18581) 18,433] 18,516 0.4

footnotes at end of Table 1