UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | sat.
EWS _WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 eM CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth November 24, 1992
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB92-252
M3-1(92)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS! SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
October
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $4.7 billion or 3.9 percent to $124.4 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This increase, the largest since a 12.1 rise in July

1991, follows a revised 0.3 percent increase in September and 0.4 rcent August decrease. Excludi fense, new orders
were up $26 billion or 22 percent. crease in September and 04 Perea ea eccreaced $0.6 billon oF 0.7 percent

Tr ion equipment had the largest increase, up $5.4 billion or 20.0 percent to $32.2 billion, pri due to
aircraft ant eee and motor ve vehicles and parts. Primary metals increased $0.5 billion or 5.1 percent to stor tilts with
increases in all categories. Industrial machinery and equipment, had the largest decrease, down $0.9 billion or 4.5 percent to
$20.2 billion, primarily due to metalworking machinery and engines and turbi

Shipments

Shipments of durable in October decreased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $124.6 billion, following a 1.6 percent
increase in September. Excluding defense, shipments were down slightly. Without transportation equipment, shipments
decreased $1.4 billion or 1.5 percent. All major groups had decreases except transportation mipment, electronic and other
electrical equipment, and stone, clay, and glass products. Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest decrease, down
$0.6 billion or 2.7 percent to $20.4 billion, primarily due to metalworking machinery. Transportation equipment had the largest
increase, up $0.7 Filton or 2.2 percent to $32.3 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable in October decreased $0.1 billion to $453.0 billion, the lowest level since $450.0
billion in December 1988. This is the fourteenth consecutive monthly decline. Excluding defense, unfilled orders were up $0.2
billion or 0.1 percent. Without transportation equipment, unfilled orders were down $0.1 billion. All major groups declined
except fabricated metal products and electronic and other electrical equipment. The largest decreases were in primary metals,
down $0.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $20.0 billion and industrial machinery and equipment, down $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to
$51.0 billion. Trans] ion equipment was down $0.1 billion to $249.1 billion, as decreases in motor vehicles and parts and
shipbuilding and t: more than offset increases in railroad equipment and aircraft and parts. Transportation equipment has
declined in thirteen of the last fourteen months and is at the lowest level since $245.6 billion in October 1989,

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital'goods in October increased $0.8 billion or 2.5 percent to $3133 billion. The
October increase follows a 8.5 percent increase in September. Shipments were down $0.4 billion or 4.1 percent to $31.7 billion,
following a 2.8 percent increase in September. Unfilled orders, down $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $223.2 billion, have declined
for seven consecutive months and are at the lowest level since $222.2 billion in February 1990, Excluding aircraft and parts,
nondefense new orders decreased 2.8 percent, shipments were down 2.1 percent, and unfilled orders declined 0.4 percent.

New orders for defense were up $2.2 billion or 42.0 percent to $7.3 billion, due to aircraft and parts. The October
increase follows a 20.0 percent decrease in September. Shipments decreased $0.7 billion or 8.1 percent to $7.7 billion, following
a 7.6 percent increase in September, Unfilled orders declined $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $128.2 billion. Unfilled orders
have declined in thirteen of the last fourteen months and are at the lowest level since $123.2 billion in February 1984.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
cstimates plas nondurable goods and inventory data wil be published December 3, 1992. The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled
for December 23, 1992. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-
207 20°) and thenmah the Cencne Rarrean’c online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change

5 - a Sept, Oct.
De 58s ca See & ‘ ros 13 {or 1991 | Oct.92/91

Item

0.6 +16 ll 131,081 134,162 127,915 +25
Haan | tet | tsse| +35) 408] 2a) Boo! Bese! Tart] t%s
453/013 | 453,162 | 458,755 00) “12| 09] 450,716 | 4517723 | 484,195 69

115,621 0.0 +12 09 123,537 125, 119,416 +35
19pat eso 112914 +22 +14 “12 ise Tes 1348 +58
324,839 324,669 327,100 +01 0.7 08 323,003 324,402 338,900 AT

101, 102,751 100,631 09 +21 21 105,575 111,064 103,744 +18
tore 7, Sees +46 +05 13 100308 105,208 99,929 +46

10,675 10,867 92) 18 05 2.2 11,338 11, 11,516
10371 380 iar +51 115 12 10,616 pistes 1030
19,990 20,294 21,291 AS AT +11 19,164 19/886 21,194

20,425 20,994, 20,924 27 +03 06 +05
20,160 21,104 20,547 AS +27 06 19,990 & 179 19,399 +30
51,015 $1,280 51,170 0S +02 07 64

13443 18211] 17,293] +13] +53) 4: 18,520 | 20,006 +87
1870 | 18/500] 17343] +15| +67| 45] 18916] 19873] 16893] +120
42623 | 42296 | 42/007] +08] +071 +0: +15

32269} 31588] 31673) +22] 03} +03] 35386] 33010] 35,419 01
32183 | 26818 | 28) 200} 56] +20] 35686] 23069) 33°76 | +57

2A91089 | 249;175 | 253/945 Oo}; 39 13] 248618 | 248/318 | 269/794 78

39,352] 40383) 38916| 26] +38]  - 33252] 44336] 38,874 “16

38646 | 35/710 | 34,615, a2) +32] 09] 38721) 40514] 36,793] +36

351/397 | 352,103 | 356,776 02 13 12] 350/814 | 350/945 | 381/102 79

31,693 32,051 31,173 a +28 24 30,708 35,566 30,375 +11

Shipments - 31,306 | 30540 | 28153] +25] +85] 39] 30185) 33901} 28,122 +73
eres ens 2 223,223 | 223610) 225,121} 02} 07} 13) 223101) 223624] 235,807 54
Buctoding aircraft and 25,937 25, 21} +35) 24] 25270] 29452] 24249 +42
Shipments. . 25,622 258 Ras 28 +63 31 Rae 29;257 prety +67
New orders, lt | = 723826 | 72957] 04 02} 11] 72389} 72,840} 76,294 Si
Defenee : 7659 8 7743) 81] +7. 41 4, 8,770 3499) -112
Shipments - «+++. sss 7340 3% 6462) +420] 200] +148 7936 6, 8,671 85
Brew Orders nett 128174 | 128,493 | 131,695} 02) “10| 127713} 127321 | 145/295| 2d

Shipments and new order are the totals forthe period and are ecjusted for racing-day and calender-month vaitions; unfled orders areas ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted
for acing ay or caloncersmonth val rey

2 Based on advance sample.

3 The Capital Goods industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, Internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment,
Imataworkng machinery, special industry machinery, general Industral machinery, computer and office equipment, refigeration, heating and service Indusiy ay mecina electrical and
distribution equipment, industrial apparatus, ‘equipment, complete ‘and space aire ‘engines and parte, ships and
tank component, ralroad road equipment and search ard navigation equipment,

Defense ince, communication, aircraft, ‘space and parts, shipe, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

io Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
lusty ‘Year ago Oct. | Oct. 1991-1 Year ago Oct. | Oct. 1991-| Year ago Oct] Oct. 1951-
Oct, 1991 | 1987-1991 | Sept. 1992| Oct. 1991] 1987-1991 Sept. 19921 Oct. 1991| 1987-1991 | Sept. 1992
Durable goods 00 02 03 90 06 07 01 02 01
Indust! mai 08 a8 07 it ta 08 a ce) ne
machi x ! 2 x 0: 3
Electronic and other 2 o2 on
electrical equipment .... O41 03 os os 08 02 01 02
‘Transportation “avomen : O14 05 06 02 14 17 00 02 02
Nondefense ¢ . 02 04 0g 4 13 15 0.0 02 01
Defenas capital goc an 4 07 15 33 67 On 02 02

Nota + Tha ara the differ tha manthtemanth ofthe and final The mmraniee ara the atthe sadhana



Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
150 150

New Orders
“or Shipments |" 140
130 + + 130
120 120
110 — - 4 110
100 H L | | 1 | | 1 1 1 1 i 1 100
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Oct. 1990- Oct. 1992
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45

New Orders

“OF Shipments |-| 40

1 1 1 i L i 1

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb = Apr
Oct. 1990 - Oct. 1992

Jun

I 25

Aug Oct

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars,