UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

AND
STATISTICS
COMMERCE | 855.
NEwSsS ne
= WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 July 29, 1998

For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-133

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(98)-06

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
June 1!
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $182.3 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 3.3 percent May decrease and is the fourth
decrease this year. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.9 percent, the sixth increase in the last seven months. Year-
to-date, new orders are 4.5 percent above the same period a year ago; new orders for the second quarter are 0.9 percent below first
quarter.

Transportation equipment, down four of the last five months, had the largest decline, $3.0 billion or 6.9 percent to $39.7 billion;
decreases in motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts more than offset increases in shipbuilding and tanks and railroad
equipment. This follows a 4.0 percent May decrease. Primary metals, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.4 billion
or 2.5 percent to $14.5 billion, following a 3.5 percent May decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month
since March, increased $0.6 billion or 1.7 percent to $36.8 billion. This follows a 1.8 percent May decrease. Electronic and other
electrical equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.8 percent to $29.4 billion, due to electronic
components. This follows a 9.0 percent May decrease. Instruments and related products, up two of the last three months, also
Increased.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in June increased $0.1 billion to $185.8 billion. This follows a 0.6 percent May
decrease and is the first increase since March. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.8 percent above the same period a year ago;
shipments for the second quarter are 0.2 percent below the first quarter.

Industrial machinery and equipment, up six of the last seven months, had the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 3.2 percent to $37.7
billion. This follows a 1.0 percent May decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the first month since March,
increased $0.7 billion or 2.5 percent to $30.5 billion, following a 1.0 percent May decrease. Transportation equipment, down for
the third consecutive month, decreased $2.7 billion or 6.1 percent to $40.9 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts. This follows a
0.7 percent May decrease.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in June decreased $3.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $504.8 billion. This
follows a 0.6 percent May decrease and is the fourth decrease in the last five months. Transportation equipment, down four of the
last five months, had the largest decrease, $1.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $251.8 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This follows a
0.4 percent May decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $1.1 billion or 2.0 percent to $56.7 billion. This
follows a 1.6 percent May decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the third consecutive month, decreased $0.9
billion or 1.2 percent to $73.0 billion, following a 0.4 percent May decrease. Primary metals decreased $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent
to $33.0 billion. This follows a 0.8 percent May decrease and is the fifth decrease in the last six months.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June, up two of the last three months, increased $0.2 billion or

4.7 percent to $5.5 billion, following a 23.1 percent May decrease. Shipments decreased $0.3 billion or 4.4 percent to $6.3
billion, following a 2.9 percent May decrease. Unfilled orders, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.7 billion or

0.7 percent to $99.2 billion, following a 1.3 percent May decrease. .

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June, up three of the last four months, increased $0.3
billion or 0.6 percent to $51.1 billion, following a 1.0 percent May decrease. Shipments, up seven of the last eight months,
increased $1.5 billion or 3.0 percent to $52.1 billion. This follows a 0.1 percent May increase. Unfilled orders, down for the first
month since March, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $263.2 billion, following a 0.1 percent May increase. Excluding
aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $44.2 billion, the sixth increase in the last seven months;
shipments increased $1.7 billion or 4.1 percent to $44.7 billion, the first increase since March; and unfilled orders decreased $0.5
billion or 0.5 percent to $104.5 billion, the third consecutive monthly decline.

® REVISED MAY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $333.7
billion; new orders, $330.3 billion; unfilled orders, $533.5 billion; and total inventories, $465.7 billion.

NOTE: The data in this press release are consistent with the revised historical series released July 21, 1998. A report which includes these data from 1987 through
1997 is available on our internet site or from Census Bureau's Customer Services Center. Please call (301) 457-4100 to order the book. Our internet site address is:
http://www census. gov/fip/pub/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 6, 1998 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for July is scheduled for August 26, 1998 at
8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
J M: Mi A M J M ry change
in ay Apr. lay: r= lar.- june lay june
1998 1598" i886 | Min? | Maye | "Abe 1998 1998 1997 | June98/97
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments . . 185,828 | 185,760 ] 186,843 06] 17 | 203,444 | 185,796 | 197,434 $3.0
New orders | 182;311 | 182,604 | 188,921 33| +16 | 194876 | 180026 | 194,270 +03
Unfilled orders 504777 | 508,294 | 511,450 20% | +04] 501/869 | 510,437 | 493,820 +16
Excluding defense :
: 179,564 | 179,208 | 180,098 -18 | 196,615 | 179,430 | 190,265 433
176,781 | 177;322 | 182,056 40'8 | 1891527 | 175:925 | 187/900 409
405,627 | 408,410 | 410,296 40:5 | 402;479 | 409,567 | 386,969 +4.0
With unfilled orders
Shipments ....... 154,750 | 153,562 | 154.463 | +0. -06| -15 | 171,072] 151,374 | 164,027 +43
New orders 131233 | 150/406 | 156,541 ] +05 39 23 | 162504 | 145,604 | 160,863 +10
Primary metal
Shipments... . 15,157 | 15,178 | 15,523 0.1 22| 09 | 15,948 | 15,553] 16,656 43
New orders... | 14545 | 14916 | 15451 25 35 | +51] 14538] 14616 | 16,136 99
Unfilled orders 32/965 | 33.577 | 33,839 “18 08 | “0:2 | 32'805 | 34.215 | 31,950 2.7
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments ......-...-.-++---] 37,713 | 36.538 | 36,898 | 43.2 to] +01] 44512] 35.411 | 40,108) +110
New orders". | 36839 | 36211 | 36,889 | +17 ig) -15 | 42:743 | 34,850 7837 | +130
Unfilled orders | 72! 733840 | 74,167 04 00] 72035 | 73,804 | 72,628 08
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments ....... 30,504 | 29,769 | 30,056 5 | 33427] 28,539] 32,148 +4.0
New orders | x 2346 | 31,707 | +18 428} 30214 | 261785 | 31530 42
Unfilled orders’: 56,661 | 57,799 | 38, ~ 429 | 54916 | 58:29 | 54,069 +16
‘Transportation equipment :
Shipments ......-..- 40,892 | 43,565 | 43,863 6.1 43,049 | 45,538] 44,901 4
New orders”. ° 39,677 | 42.635 | 44,431 69 $53 | auygi | 43512 | 44,804 “82
Unfilled orders 251,830 | 253,045 | 253,975 05 251,785 | 253,653 | 245,907 424
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 57,150 | 57,305} +21 03) -161 68,149 | 54,220 | 62,515 +9.0
New orders 56,033 | 58105 | +10 36 | +40 | 64878] 51,901 | 61,165 +6.1
Unfilled orders * 364;128 | 365;245 05 “03 0.2 | 361,906 | 365,177 | 356,042 +16
Nondefense :
Shipments. 50,598 | 30560] +30] +01 0 | 61,320] 47,854) 95,346 08
New orders | | 50,751 | 51240 | +06 “10 | +15 | 59529 | 47,800 | 54,795 48.6
Unfilled orders 264/244 | 2647091 04] 40.1 03} 262;516 | 264,307 | 249,191 453
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments ovens 44,736 | 42,989] 43,014 | +41 0.1 20] 53071 | 40607] 47,698] +113
New orders 44196 | 42'758 | 42544] 434] +05] 35] 51,760] 40,169 | 46,238 | +119
Unfilled orders” : 104484 | 105,024 | 105:255 “05 02 | 0:4 | 103:776 | 105,087 | 99,143 +47
Defense :
Shipments ........-..--+ 6,264 6,552 6,745 44 29] +17 6,829 6,366 7,169 47
New orders 5/530 5,282 oes | +47 | -23.1) 4275 5349 4,101 6:370 -16.0
Unfilled orders 99,150 | 99/884 | 101,154 | 0.7 “13 | 40:1 | 997390 | 100,870 | 106,851 “70

(NA) Not available, * Revised.

* himents and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for taing-day apd calendar-month variations; unfed orders areas ofthe end ofthe period anc! are not adjusted for wading-day or ealendar-momh varaons

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject 10 survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling, ervor, which includes errors of coverale
resporae and noveportng, "Since the survey panel is ta probability sample, estimates of sampling error canst be called. Further details on survey design, methaology, and data limitations are contained im our mst resent anmuz
bewhmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

"The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, intemal combustion engines, consiuction mining and material handling equipment. metalworking machinery. Speci init
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry electri transmission and distribution electrical appara, ion equipment
Complete sifcraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

iDefense capital goods include’ ordeance, communication equipmem, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and paris, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Tune | June 1997-| Year ago June | June 1997-| Year ago Tune | une 1997-

June 1997 | 1993-1997 | May 1998 | June 1997| 1993-1997 | May 1998] June 1997] 1993-1997 | May 1998

Durable goods... . coven 08 04 03 06 06 0. 0.1 O.

Primary metals...” — 02 05 03 o4 07 00 03 03

Industrial machinery anid equipment 16 08 05 17 05 0.0 03 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment ............- os 04 0s 26 13 12 Ld os

‘Transportation equipment 7 09 09 13 14 00 ol 02

Nondefense capital goods « 18 10 06 13 09 ol o ol

Defense capital goods... 10 Ll 09 36 57 02 02 03

Note! The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes ofthe advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
205 205

New Orders
195 F-- - = - rr Shipments |-] 195

185 185

175 175

165 165

155 1 1 1 L L 1 L L 1 L L L 1 155
Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
Jun. 1996 - Jun. 1998

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
59 59

New Orders

54}| Shipments | --------------------- 2-2-0 rrr ree 454

3g bat i L n n L n L nl n n L LJ 39

Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
Jun. 1996 - Jun. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.