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U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-01

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

April 24, 2003

CB-03-71

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

March 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. All figures exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in March increased $3.4 billion or 2.0 percent to $173.6 billion, the Department of Commerce,

U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.5 percent February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.8 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.3 percent. Year-to-date, new orders for 2003 were 1.2 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up three consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 2.4 percent to $52.4 billion, due to defense aircraft

and parts, which increased by $3.2 billion. Computers and electronic products increased $1.1 billion or 4.0 percent to $27.4 billion.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in March increased $1.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $172.1 billion. This followed a 2.1 percent

February decrease. Year-to-date, shipments for 2003 were 0.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

The category of “all other durable goods” had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $31.8 billion. Computers and electronic products

increased $0.6 billion or 2.5 percent to $26.2 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in March, following six consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.5 billion or 0.3

percent to $477.6 billion. This followed a $0.1 billion February decrease.

Computers and electronic products had the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $110.5 billion. This is the largest percent increase since

August 2000. Transportation equipment increased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $247.1 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in March increased $0.1 billion to $264.9 billion, following a slight decrease in February. This

was the second increase in the past twenty-six months.

The category of “all other durable goods” had the largest increase, $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $43.9 billion. Transportation equipment and

fabricated metal products both increased $0.1 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in March, at the highest level since October 2001, increased $1.5 billion or 16.1

percent to $10.8 billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $7.2 billion. Unfilled orders, at the highest level since December 1996,

increased $3.5 billion or 2.8 percent to $128.5 billion. Inventories, at the highest level since March 2002, increased $0.2 billion or 1.0 percent to

$19.1 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in March increased $1.0 billion or 1.8 percent to $55.0 billion. Shipments

increased $0.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $55.7 billion. Unfilled orders, at the lowest level since February 1996, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to

$208.4 billion. Inventories, down twenty-five of the past twenty-six months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $111.0 billion.

! REVISED FEBRUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $321.4 billion

(revised from $321.2 billion); shipments, $321.5 billion (revised from $322.2 billion); unfilled orders, $476.1 billion (revised from $475.1 billion);

and total inventories, $433.2 billion (revised from $433.0 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published May 2, 2003 at 10:00 A.M ED T. The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May 28 at 8:30

A.M EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date Percent

Item Change Mar Feb Jan Feb - Jan - Dec - Mar Feb Mar 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Mar 2 Feb r Jan 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2003 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Shipments................................ 172,061 170,297 173,926 1.0 -2.1 2.5 185,426 163,692 184,912 504,773 502,576 0.4

 New Orders.............................. 173,599 170,199 172,704 2.0 -1.5 2.1 188,233 166,345 186,943 516,072 509,997 1.2

 Excluding transportation: 4

 Shipments................................ 120,603 118,347 122,346 1.9 -3.3 0.8 129,214 112,275 128,827 349,662 348,274 0.4

 New Orders.............................. 121,203 119,016 122,273 1.8 -2.7 1.5 130,023 114,746 126,170 357,007 347,326 2.8

 Excluding defense: 4

 Shipments................................ 163,491 161,586 165,375 1.2 -2.3 2.0 175,889 155,636 176,290 480,193 480,840 -0.1

 New Orders.............................. 161,847 159,703 165,017 1.3 -3.2 2.4 174,241 155,980 173,145 483,737 479,960 0.8

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders: 4

 Shipments................................ 119,560 118,905 120,784 0.6 -1.6 2.5 129,362 114,364 131,592 350,961 354,034 -0.9

 New Orders.............................. 121,098 118,807 119,562 1.9 -0.6 2.0 132,169 117,017 133,623 362,260 361,455 0.2

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 11,021 10,995 11,351 0.2 -3.1 1.5 11,385 10,696 11,425 33,173 32,574 1.8

 New Orders.............................. 10,415 10,881 11,183 -4.3 -2.7 2.7 10,842 11,047 11,195 33,405 33,189 0.7

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,762 20,599 20,870 0.8 -1.3 -0.5 21,078 19,939 21,084 60,248 60,335 -0.1

 New Orders.............................. 20,500 20,230 20,595 1.3 -1.8 1.0 21,045 19,881 21,442 60,253 60,519 -0.4

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 22,220 21,925 22,406 1.3 -2.1 0.7 24,745 21,134 24,955 65,387 66,228 -1.3

 New Orders.............................. 22,354 21,844 22,401 2.3 -2.5 3.2 24,814 21,412 23,624 66,829 64,515 3.6

 Computers and electronic products: 4

 Shipments................................ 26,184 25,544 26,759 2.5 -4.5 4.2 30,710 23,386 30,727 75,995 76,613 -0.8

 New Orders.............................. 27,373 26,319 27,315 4.0 -3.6 4.1 32,053 24,645 30,030 80,832 76,876 5.1

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 6,357 6,642 7,687 -4.3 -13.6 19.7 8,181 5,570 8,291 19,940 19,165 4.0

 New Orders.............................. 6,571 6,485 7,425 1.3 -12.7 0.9 8,375 5,588 8,215 19,881 19,352 2.7 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 5,616 5,493 5,588 2.2 -1.7 8.4 6,656 4,837 6,828 15,803 16,666 -5.2

 New Orders.............................. 6,354 6,369 6,319 -0.2 0.8 44.2 7,620 5,841 6,301 19,369 17,154 12.9

 Semiconductors:

5

 Shipments................................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 New Orders.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,648 8,566 8,949 1.0 -4.3 0.0 9,297 8,142 9,777 25,165 25,998 -3.2

 New Orders.............................. 8,786 8,569 8,724 2.5 -1.8 -1.9 9,275 8,386 9,218 25,397 25,698 -1.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 51,458 51,950 51,580 -0.9 0.7 6.8 56,212 51,417 56,085 155,111 154,302 0.5

 New Orders.............................. 52,396 51,183 50,431 2.4 1.5 3.5 58,210 51,599 60,773 159,065 162,671 -2.2

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 36,839 36,991 37,999 -0.4 -2.7 10.1 39,476 37,236 38,480 113,581 110,936 2.4

 New Orders.............................. 36,674 37,095 37,970 -1.1 -2.3 9.9 39,216 37,573 38,565 114,085 111,625 2.2 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 6,042 6,067 4,744 -0.4 27.9 -19.9 7,107 5,949 8,580 16,647 20,957 -20.6

 New Orders.............................. 3,134 3,584 5,166 -12.6 -30.6 -24.5 4,396 3,804 8,116 12,945 18,407 -29.7

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,320 3,250 3,237 2.2 0.4 26.8 3,696 2,819 3,185 9,095 7,703 18.1

 New Orders.............................. 5,697 2,448 2,368 132.7 3.4 -11.7 6,391 2,858 7,132 12,165 14,680 -17.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 31,768 30,718 32,011 3.4 -4.0 -1.1 31,999 28,978 30,859 89,694 86,526 3.7

 New Orders.............................. 31,775 31,173 32,055 1.9 -2.8 -0.8 31,994 29,375 30,661 90,291 86,529 4.3

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 62,976 62,358 63,084 1.0 -1.2 2.6 71,332 58,685 72,049 183,466 183,940 -0.3

 New Orders.............................. 65,759 63,303 63,674 3.9 -0.6 1.4 74,942 60,663 72,781 193,067 184,511 4.6

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 55,738 55,066 55,825 1.2 -1.4 1.1 63,302 51,861 64,742 162,575 165,432 -1.7

 New Orders.............................. 54,982 54,020 56,883 1.8 -5.0 1.9 62,604 51,687 60,670 164,944 159,983 3.1

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 53,010 52,224 54,100 1.5 -3.5 3.1 59,900 49,163 59,811 155,249 154,394 0.6

 New Orders.......................... 54,631 52,928 54,312 3.2 -2.5 5.2 61,579 50,739 57,029 160,899 153,301 5.0

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,238 7,292 7,259 -0.7 0.5 15.6 8,030 6,824 7,307 20,891 18,508 12.9

 New Orders.............................. 10,777 9,283 6,791 16.1 36.7 -2.5 12,338 8,976 12,111 28,123 24,528 14.7

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(01), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey,

 the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

5 Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor 

shipments, orders, or inventories.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Mar Feb Jan Feb - Jan - Dec - Mar Feb Mar 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Mar 2 Feb r Jan 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 477,636 476,098 476,196 0.3 0.0 -0.3 483,704 480,897 509,379 -5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 264,856 264,782 264,821 0.0 0.0 -0.2 262,828 266,645 266,769 -1.5

 Excluding transportation: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 230,579 229,979 229,310 0.3 0.3 0.0 233,286 232,477 247,379 -5.7

 Total Inventories....................... 191,517 191,532 191,868 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 190,736 193,333 195,614 -2.5

 Excluding defense: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 329,666 331,310 333,193 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 332,168 333,816 360,380 -7.8

 Total Inventories....................... 241,217 241,774 242,477 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 239,633 243,510 244,925 -2.2

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 477,636 476,098 476,196 0.3 0.0 -0.3 483,704 480,897 509,379 -5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 215,222 215,054 215,316 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 213,315 216,270 217,987 -2.1

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,043 14,649 14,763 -4.1 -0.8 -1.1 14,537 15,080 16,718 -13.0

 Total Inventories....................... 19,062 19,091 18,933 -0.2 0.8 1.0 18,835 19,092 18,186 3.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 36,894 37,156 37,525 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 36,947 36,980 39,993 -7.6

 Total Inventories....................... 30,839 30,783 30,787 0.2 0.0 -0.2 31,125 30,997 31,506 -1.2

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,629 44,495 44,576 0.3 -0.2 0.0 45,056 44,987 51,701 -12.9

 Total Inventories....................... 44,185 44,152 44,304 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 44,345 44,856 46,340 -4.3

 Computers and electronic products: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 110,460 109,271 108,496 1.1 0.7 0.5 112,234 110,891 114,214 -1.7

 Total Inventories....................... 41,160 41,347 41,759 -0.5 -1.0 -1.2 40,012 41,526 43,304 -7.6

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 7,603 7,389 7,546 2.9 -2.1 -3.4 7,644 7,450 6,991 9.3

 Total Inventories....................... 6,956 6,865 6,882 1.3 -0.2 -2.6 6,615 6,969 6,794 -2.6 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 40,346 39,608 38,732 1.9 2.3 1.9 41,236 40,272 42,741 -3.5

 Total Inventories....................... 8,175 8,333 8,600 -1.9 -3.1 -2.2 7,988 8,372 10,374 -23.0

 Semiconductors:5

 Unfilled Orders......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,327 14,189 14,186 1.0 0.0 -1.6 14,431 14,453 14,576 -1.0

 Total Inventories....................... 12,377 12,383 12,438 0.0 -0.4 0.3 12,468 12,672 13,320 -6.4

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 247,057 246,119 246,886 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 250,418 248,420 262,000 -4.4

 Total Inventories....................... 73,339 73,250 72,953 0.1 0.4 0.3 72,092 73,312 71,155 1.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,228 12,393 12,289 -1.3 0.8 -0.2 12,747 13,007 12,882 -1.0

 Total Inventories....................... 20,935 21,170 21,025 -1.1 0.7 1.4 20,629 21,018 19,605 5.2 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 108,189 111,097 113,580 -2.6 -2.2 0.4 108,288 110,999 120,793 -10.4

 Total Inventories....................... 29,303 29,557 30,104 -0.9 -1.8 0.6 28,782 29,554 30,128 -4.5

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 57,990 55,613 56,415 4.3 -1.4 -1.5 59,369 56,674 58,260 1.9

 Total Inventories....................... 11,609 11,295 10,898 2.8 3.6 -2.3 11,357 11,517 10,452 8.7

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 10,226 10,219 9,764 0.1 4.7 0.5 10,081 10,086 10,177 -0.9

 Total Inventories....................... 43,894 43,776 43,647 0.3 0.3 0.4 43,951 44,190 42,958 2.3

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 336,879 334,096 333,151 0.8 0.3 0.2 341,258 337,648 356,009 -4.1

 Total Inventories....................... 130,059 129,937 130,824 0.1 -0.7 -0.8 128,423 130,871 135,526 -5.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 208,356 209,112 210,158 -0.4 -0.5 0.5 209,781 210,479 225,339 -6.9

 Total Inventories....................... 110,963 111,029 112,136 -0.1 -1.0 -0.6 109,627 111,981 116,884 -6.2

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 126,422 124,801 124,097 1.3 0.6 0.2 127,847 126,168 135,814 -5.9

 Total Inventories.................. 88,437 88,542 89,107 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 87,588 89,486 93,069 -5.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 128,523 124,984 122,993 2.8 1.6 -0.4 131,477 127,169 130,670 0.6

 Total Inventories....................... 19,096 18,908 18,688 1.0 1.2 -1.8 18,796 18,890 18,642 0.8

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.