UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

AND
COMMERCE | wstes
ADMINISTRATION
NI =—VV WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 September 25, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97-160
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-08

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS” SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
ugust 1997
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $4.9 billion or 2.7 percent to $186.6 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.1 percent July increase and is the third consecutive
monthly increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent, also the third consecutive monthly increase. Year to
date, new orders are 6.5 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the first month since May, had the largest increase, $7.5 billion or 28.4 percent to
$33.8 billion, mostly due to electronic components. This follows a 12.3 percent July decrease. Transportation equipment, up two of
the last three months, increased $2.2 billion or 5.2 percent to $43.9 billion, as a large increase in aircraft and parts more than offset
decreases in the other components. This follows a 2.7 percent July decrease. Primary metals, down for the first month since May,
decreased $0.6 billion or 3.6 percent to $15.7 billion, following a 3.6 percent July increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, down
for the first month since May, decreased $0.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $34.6 billion. This follows a 6.0 percent July increase.
Instruments and related products, down for the first month since May, also had a large decline.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in August, down for the first month since May, decreased $2.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $181.3
billion, following a 1.8 percent July increase. Year to date, shipments are 7.5 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down for the first month since May, had the largest decrease, $1.0 billion or 2.3 percent to $43.0 billion,
due to aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 3.6 percent July increase. Industrial machinery and equipment,
also down for the first month since May, decreased $0.8 billion or 2.3 percent to 334.1 billion, following a 1.9 percent July increase.
Primary metals decreased $0.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $15.5 billion, following increases of 1.1 percent in July and 1.7 percent in June.
Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.6 billion or 2.2 percent to $30.0 billion. This
follows a 0.6 percent July decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in August increased $5.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $501.1 billion. This
follows a 0.5 percent July decrease and is the third increase in the last four months.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $3.8 billion or 7.4 percent to $55.2
billion. This follows a 5.6 percent July decrease. Transportation equipment increased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $250.6 billion,
due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 0.9 percent July decrease and is the second increase in the last three months. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $73.4 billion, following a 0.2
percent July increase. Primary metals, up for the eighth consecutive month, increased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $31.9 billion,
following a 2.1 percent July increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in August increased $0.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $6.0 billion,
following a 4.7 percent July decrease. Shipments, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.2 billion or 2.6 percent to $6.2
billion, following a 4.7 percent July decrease. Unfilled orders, down for the eighth consecutive month, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1
percent to $107.5 billion, following a 0.3 percent July decrease.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August, up for the fourth consecutive month, increased $0.4
billion or 0.9 percent to $47.8 billion, following a 0.4 percent July increase. Shipments, down for the first month since May, decreased
$1.1 billion or 2.4 percent to $46.9 billion. This follows a 2.7 percent July increase. Unfilled orders, up two of the last three months,
increased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $252.5 billion, following a 0.3 percent July decrease. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
decreased $2.3 billion or 5.4 percent to $39.8 billion, the first decrease since May; shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 1.2 percent to
$40.0 billion, the first decline since January; and unfilled orders decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $99.0 billion, the third decrease
in the last four months.

@ REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $332.8 billion
revised from $332.9 billion); new orders, $331.1 billion (revised from $330.3 billion); unfilled orders, $522.3 billion (revised from
521.4 billion); and total inventories, $446.4 billion (revised from $447.0 billion).

‘Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/{tp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm,

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published October 2, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled for October 29, 1997. This report
is available on the-day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
r( ms of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Au ah June July; June- May- Sues Jul Aug.
199" oot 1997 Aug? July’ June 199° 1997 19 Aug.97/96
DURABLE GOODS
183,931 180,687 “14 +18 427 179,016 156,331 167,484 +6.9
181,677 181,584 427 +0.1 42.9 183,630 155,475 164,086 +119
Unfilled orders | . 495,857 498,111 +11 0.5 +02 500,720 496,106 479,089 +45
Excluding. defense
hipme! 175,130 177,585 174,025 - +2.0 42.6 173,087 150,732 161,659 +71
New orders,” . 180,555 175, 175,313 42.8 +02 42.6 179,054 151,662 160,287 +17
Unfilled orders’ : 393,625 388, 390,085 +1. 0.5 +03 395,120 389,153 372,323 +61
With unfilled orders ¢ 3
hipms 149,591 148,046 -Ld +10 42.4 145,570 129,905 135,334 +76
Rew orders 147,337 148,943 +4.0 -ll 42.6 150,184 129,049 131,936 +13.8
Primary metals :
Shipments . 15,458 15,589 15,425 +11 15,428 14,102 14, 463
New orders ..... 15,674 16,256 15,694 3.6 43.6 +d 15,471 14,830 14; +5.2
Unfilled orders 31947 | 317731 31,064 421 31824 | 317781 29% 22
Industrial machinery and equipments
Shipments a 34,142 34,941 34,284 23 +19 43.7 31,775 29,600 29,817
34,608 35,089 33,103 “14 +6.0 +11 32,204 30,025 30,107 +7.0
Damed ‘ord 73,398 72,932 72,784 +0.6 +0.2 1.6 72,675 246 T2418 0.
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments . 30,016 29,383 29,561 42.2 0.6 42.9 29,517 25,348 26,037 +134
New orders.) ||: 33/842 267352 X 4284} -123 26 34°074 23;460 25/828 4319
Unfilled orders .. 55,222 51396 54,427 +74 5.6 +09 56,248 51,691 50,986 +103
Transportation equipment :
Shipments . . : 43,946 42,415 23 43.6 +3. 42,097 32,024 39,759
New orders. 41,754 42,905 +5.2 2.7 +88 42,195, 28,904 36,738 +14.9
Unfilled order : 249,647 251,839 0.9 40.2 249,292 249,194 242/528
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total :
Shipments | Lene 53,088 54,396 53,435 1 42.9 49,736 46,892 45,660
53,886 53,374 53,482 +10 0.2 +75 49,254 44,737 41,505 +18.7
and ‘ordels | 359,986 359,188 360,210 0.3 0.0 357,610 358,092 349,245
Nondefense :
46,9 48,050 46,773 24 427 42.6 43,807 41,293 39,835 +10.0
47,843 47,397 47,211 +0.9 +04 +68 44,678 92: 37,706 +185
Unfilled orders + 252/470 251,531 252,184 +04 03 +0.2 252,010 251,139 242/479 43.9
Excluding tircraft and parts:
39,957 40,445 40,000 12 +11 43.8 37,406 34,595 34,471 48.5
neem orders 39,845 42,120 39512 54 +6.6 43.1 37,226 36,554 33,765 +103
Unfilled orders. 99,016 99,128 97,453 01 +17 0.5 98,556 98,736 95,936
Defense :
‘Shipments 6,184 6,346 6,662 2 47| 455 5,929 5,599 5,825 +18
New orders 6,043 3,977 6,271 +h 47 +135 4,576 3,813 3,799 420.5
Unfilled orders 107,516 107,657 108,026 0.1 03 0.4 105,600 106,953 106,766 ll

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

"Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.
Sued on avn sample: ima of manson’ spmen iments, andor nt wo sey er an ren. |On Mor compen of sane coo semplng err, we aden era of STE
‘and nonreporting, Since the survey pane! is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error canna be calculated. Further details on survey design, tmethodlogy. and data limitations are contained incur moet recent anol
feochmark ableton, Current Indastal Repos: M3-(08), “Manufacturer Shipment, Inverts, and Orders 1987-1996."

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
py, Beneral industrial and office refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,

complete aircraft. missles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and tavigation equipment.

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago ‘Aug. | Aug. 1996-| Year ago ‘Aug. | Aug. 1996-| Year ago ‘Aug, [Aug. 1996-

July 1997 | Aug. 1996 | 1992-1996 | July 1997| Aug. 1996] 1992-1996 | _July 1997

Durable goods . 03 02 04 04 04 01 Ol 0.1

Primary metals... 04 02 03 13 05 09 09 02 04

Industrial machinery and eqi 03 03 05 ol 05 08 03 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment ..... : 04 03 06 04 05 12 00 02 07

Transportation equipment : 03 06 04 09 10 13 02 ol 02

Nondefene capital goods... 02 03 06 03 04 07 oO. ou 02

Defense capi Ll 07 09 7.0 28 45 04 Ol 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
200 200
New Orders
190 -- --------------------------------4 Shipments |-] 190

180 180

170 170

160 160

150 L L 1 L L L L L i 1 L L L 150
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

Aug. 1995 - Aug. 1997

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

53; ----------------------------------- New Orders |-] 53

Shipments

48

43

38

33 i i L 1 1 L L 1 L 1 1 il L 33
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

Aug. 1995 - Aug. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.