ECONOMICS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
= Bere
as = BUREAU OF THE
= = WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 January 26, 2001

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-01-18

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(00)-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
December 2000

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

e@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $4.6 billion or 2.2 percent to
$214.3 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.8 percent November
increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.4 percent. New orders for 2000 are 6.7 percent above 1999.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $6.9 billion or 14.6 percent to $54.2 billion, due to aircraft and parts.
Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.0 billion or 2.4 percent to $41.7 billion, due to electronic components.
Industrial machinery and equipment, down five consecutive months, decreased $2.3 billion or 5.3 percent to $40.9 billion.
Primary metals, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.5 billion or 3.5 percent to $14.3 billion; this is the largest
decrease since October 1998.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in December decreased $1.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $206.5 billion, following
a 1.1 percent November decrease. This is the third consecutive decrease. Shipments for 2000 are 5.2 percent above 1999.

Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest decrease, $1.1 billion or 2.5 percent to $41.8 billion, mostly due to
computer and office equipment. Transportation equipment, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.6 billion or 1.3

rcent to $44.8 billion. Primary metals, down six consecutive months, decreased $0.5 billion or 3.5 percent to $14.6
Billion; this is the largest decrease since June 1996. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.4 billion or 3.5
percent to $42.0 billion.

® UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in December increased $7.8 billion or 1.4 percent to $568.5
billion, following a 0.4 percent November increase. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $9.4 billion or 3.8
percent to $258.6 billion, due to aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment, led by computer and office
equipment, decreased $0.9 billion or 1.0 percent to $91.5 billion; this is the largest decline since June 1999. Electronic and
other electrical equipment decreased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $99.3 billion. Primary metals, down thirteen of the last
fourteen months, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $29.7 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in December decreased $2.2 billion or 25.9 percent to $6.2
billion. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 2.7 percent to $6.7 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.4
percent to $110.6 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in December increased $7.2 billion or 11.6 percent to
$69.2 billion. Shipments decreased $0.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $61.0 billion. Unfilled orders, up six of the last seven
months, increased $8.2 billion or 2.9 percent to $287.9 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders, down five of the
last six months, decreased $1.6 billion or 3.0 percent to $51.2 billion; shipments, down three consecutive months, decreased
$0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $53.1 billion; and unfilled orders, down three consecutive months following thirteen
consecutive increases, decreased $1.9 billion or 1.5 percent to $128.3 billion.

@ REVISED NOVEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $373.9 billion (revised from $374.1 billion); new orders, $376.2 billion (revised from $377.6 billion); unfilled
orders, $585.9 billion (revised from $587.1 billion); and total inventories, $494.2 billion (revised from $494.5 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
he nubliched Rehniary 2 2001 at 10:00 AM. The advance renort on durable saads for January is scheduled for February 27



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Chan: Monthly Percent
Item Change
Dec Nov Oct Nov - Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec Dec
20007 | 2000° 2000 Dec? Nov‘ Oct 20007 | 2000' 1999 | 00/99
206,517] 207,599] 209,833 0.5) 14 -2.0] 209,566] 204,894] 209,219] +0.2
214,328] 209,720] 206,060 42.2 +18) -6.6] 214,583] 203,355] 220,085 2.5)
568,534] 560,723] 558,602 +14 +0.4 0.7 5 555.841| 607,779] +10.5
Excluding defens
Shipments 199,864] 201,124] 203,596 0.6 “1.2 2.0] 201,668] 198,054] 201,689] 0.9}
New Orde 208,153] 201,387] 199,225) +3.4 +11 -7.2| 205/595] 195,045] 208,418 “1.4
Unfilled Orders 457,886] 449,597] 449/334 +18 +01 -110] 450/732] 446,805] 414,139] +8.8
With unfilled orders:
Shipments 174,532] 175,024) 176,137 0.3 -0.6| -1.6] 181,669] 173,328) 177,151] +2.6
New Orders. 182,343] 177,145] 172.364] +29 +28 -7.1| 186,686] 171,789] 188,017 -0.7
Primary metals:
Shipments 14,611] 15,140] 15,477 3.5 -2.2| 1.6] 13,273] 14,716) 14,447
New Orders 14/305] 14,825] 15,225 “3.5 “2.6 3.4] 13/614] 14,404] 14/859)
Unfilled Order: 29,710| 30,016 30,331 1.0 1.0 -0:8] 28,907] 28,566] 31,121
Industrial machinery and equipment:
41,850] 42,941] 43,351 25 0.9 +0.2] 44,872) 39,681) 42,025
40/920] 43/192| 43.313 5:3 -0.3 -0.2] 42,937] 40,806] 41,425)
91,495) 2,42! 2,174 1.0 +0.3 0.0] 90,994] 2,92: 122
Electronic and other
electrical equipment
Shipments. 41,987 40,582 40,651 +3.5 0.2 -2.2 47,090 41,157, 40,817 +15.4
New Orders. 41,657 40,682 38,132 +2.4 +6.7 -11.8 43,410 37,944! 43,69 -0.7
‘Unfilled Orders 99,255 99,585 99,485 -0.3 +01 -2.5 95,277 98,957 83,687 +13.8
Transportation equipment:
Shipments 44,843| 45,418] 45,655 “1.3 0.5 -6.1] 43,081] 46,215] 48,564|  -11.3]
New Orders 94,205] 47,319] +146 +73 -17:3| 53,420 " 55,238] -3.3
Unfilled Order: 258,570] 249,208] 247,307) +3.8) +0.8) -0.6] 257, "424 247,085] 226,382 +13.7
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES *
Tot
Shipments 67,652] 68,203] 67,641 0.8 +0.8 -2.3] 78,420] 65,765] 73,895] +6.1
New Orde 75,423] 70/385] 66,167 47.2 +64 -11:2] 86,636] 68,341) 83.443] +3.8
Unfilled Orde 398,545] 390,774] 388,592 +20) +0.6| 0.4] 397,219] 389,003] 350,235] +13.4
Nondefense:
60,999] 61,728] 61,404 “1.2 + -2.3] 70,522] 58,925] 66,365} +6.3)
69,248) 62,052] 59/332) +11.6 +4.6| -13'4) 77/648] 60,031] 71,776] +8.2
Unfilled Order: 287'897| 279,648] 279,324 +29 -0:7| 287/093] 279/967] 256,595] +11.9
Excluding aircraft and part:
Shi 53,106} 53,247| 54,111 -0.3 1.6 0.3] 61,123] 50,151] 55,997] +9.2
51.214{ 52,774] 54,021 3.0} -2:3 2:3] 58,108} 50,460] 58,346] -0.4
128,322] 130,214] 130,687 15 “0.4 -0.1} 127/518] 130,533} 115,218] +10.7
Shipments 6,653 6,475 6,237 42.7 +38 -2.2 7,898 6840] 7,530] +4.9
New Orders. 6.175| 8.333 6.835 25.9} +219) +13.2 81988] 8/310] 11,667] -23.0
Unfilled Order: 110,648] 111,126| 109,268 -0.4| +17 +0.6] 110,126] 109,036] 93,640] +17.6

(NA) Not Available‘ Revised

" Shipments and new orders are the totals for the

not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

? Based on
nonsampling

sdvance sample. Estimates of manuf:

Further details on survey design, methodol

\cturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders ar
rror, which includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey

ialworking machinery, special industry m

electrical transmission and distribu

ca anid 8
general industrial machinery, computer and

Panel is not @ probabi

scessories, steam engines and turbines, i

nal combustion engines,
equipment, refi

subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error
Sarnia: catimates of sampling ovtot santot be calculated.

Toy, and data imitations are contained in our most recert annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reporte: M3-1(97),

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1997.”

> The Capital Goods industries inchide Nondefense : ord
equipment, met

industry.

jeriod and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are

construction mining and material handling
1, heating and ‘machinery,
se oauipment, eectical Indusval epparetus, communicetion equipment, complete acral, missles, and space vehicles, areraft missles, and
‘space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense Capital Goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships. tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on Seasonally Adjusted Data)

‘Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Dec.] Dec. 1999-] Year ago| Dec] Dec. 1999-) Year ago Dec] Dec. 1999-

Dec. 1999] 1995-1999] Nov. 2000| Dec. 1993] 1995-1999] Nov. 2000] _Dec. 1999] 1995-1999] _Nov. 2000]

Durable Goods. 0.3 0.4 0.5 2.4 15 0.9 0.8) 0.5 0.2

Primary metal: 0.6 0.4 04 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.3

Industrial machinery and equipment. 0.6 0.6 0.9 26 1.0] 1.2 WW 0.5 0.4
Electronic and other

electrical equipment. nl 14 0.8 0.9) 2.6 24 0.1 0.5 0.7

Transportation equipment. 1.0 0.6 0.9) 77 45 2.2 1.3 08 0.3

Nondefense capital goods. 0.9) 0.6] 0.9) 6.6) 3.0 2.0) 1.2 0.6, 0.2

Defense capital goods... 2.4 3.3] 1.5 21.0 14.1 8.5 1.4) 0.4 0.5

1a ara tha simnla auaranae nf the


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

230 230
New Orders
220 Shipments 220
210 210
200 200
190 190
180 1 L L il 1 1 1 1 i L L L i 180
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1998 - Dec. 2000
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

67 67

New Orders

Shipments | ---------------------- poe ee 462

B7 Poo r te <a ee +57

s2b-/4 -------937------ 2-2-2 eee ee 452

47 i" L L i 1 1 i 4, L L in 1 i 47
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

Dec. 1998 - Dec. 2000

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.