U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-06

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

July 25, 2003

CB-03-117

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

June 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. All figures exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in June increased $3.6 billion or 2.1 percent to $172.5 billion, the Department

of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a slight May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders

increased 1.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7 percent. Year-to-date, new orders for 2003 were 0.7 percent

above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.9 billion or 3.9 percent to $50.8 billion, led by nondefense aircraft and parts,

which increased by $1.0 billion. This was the largest percent increase since July 2002.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in June increased $2.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $171.9 billion. This followed a

0.1 percent May increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2003 were 1.3 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 2.7 percent to $50.8 billion, led by nondefense aircraft and parts,

which increased by $0.7 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in June increased $0.6 billion or 0.1 percent to $477.2 billion. This

followed a 0.2 percent May decrease.

Computers and electronic products, up seven consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $111.1

billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in June, down twenty-eight of the past twenty-nine months, decreased $1.5

billion or 0.6 percent to $261.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent May decrease. This was the largest percent decrease since

March 2002.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $73.0 billion, led by nondefense aircraft and parts,

which decreased by $0.8 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June increased $1.1 billion or 15.5 percent to $8.1 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $7.3 billion. Unfilled orders, at the highest level since August 1993, increased

$0.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $130.9 billion. Inventories increased $0.5 billion or 2.5 percent to $19.7 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June increased $1.1 billion or 2.0 percent to $57.0 billion. 

Shipments increased $1.4 billion or 2.5 percent to $57.3 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $209.0

billion. Inventories decreased $0.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $108.4 billion.

! REVISED May DATA Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $321.7

billion (revised from $320.6 billion); shipments, $322.5 billion (revised from $321.4 billion); unfilled orders, $476.7 billion

(revised from $476.6 billion); and total inventories, $432.7 billion (revised from $431.7 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published August 4, 2003 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for July is

scheduled for August 26 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent Jun May Apr May - Apr - Mar - Jun May Jun 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Jun 2 May r Apr 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2003 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Shipments................................ 171,898 169,649 169,509 1.3 0.1 -1.1 188,180 173,875 188,012 1,034,276 1,047,423 -1.3

 New Orders.............................. 172,495 168,897 168,876 2.1 0.0 -2.4 185,026 172,551 176,075 1,042,203 1,035,013 0.7

 Excluding transportation:

4

 Shipments................................ 121,076 120,165 120,003 0.8 0.1 -0.2 132,925 121,072 132,305 721,480 726,320 -0.7

 New Orders.............................. 121,672 119,970 118,908 1.4 0.9 -1.4 130,997 120,647 126,629 726,173 718,870 1.0

 Excluding defense:

4

 Shipments................................ 163,231 160,954 160,632 1.4 0.2 -1.4 178,549 165,264 179,053 983,293 1,002,348 -1.9

 New Orders.............................. 163,213 160,425 158,557 1.7 1.2 -1.7 176,068 164,463 168,920 982,624 986,827 -0.4

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders4

 Shipments................................ 119,257 118,241 118,165 0.9 0.1 -0.9 130,504 120,039 132,049 717,339 733,019 -2.1

 New Orders.............................. 119,854 117,489 117,532 2.0 0.0 -2.8 127,350 118,715 120,112 725,266 720,609 0.6

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 10,592 10,661 10,725 -0.6 -0.6 -2.1 11,062 11,187 11,605 66,510 67,949 -2.1

 New Orders.............................. 10,818 10,566 10,571 2.4 0.0 2.0 11,245 10,926 11,404 66,462 68,251 -2.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,135 20,266 20,159 -0.6 0.5 -1.9 21,126 20,848 21,918 122,250 125,607 -2.7

 New Orders.............................. 20,201 20,290 19,603 -0.4 3.5 -3.9 20,915 21,295 21,230 122,063 125,624 -2.8

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 22,410 22,223 22,044 0.8 0.8 -0.9 24,860 23,136 25,427 136,241 139,355 -2.2

 New Orders.............................. 22,234 21,292 21,488 4.4 -0.9 -5.5 23,747 22,025 22,570 135,826 133,867 1.5

 Computers and electronic products:

4

 Shipments................................ 27,159 26,630 26,948 2.0 -1.2 3.4 31,856 24,805 30,324 156,173 155,266 0.6

 New Orders.............................. 27,438 27,420 27,053 0.1 1.4 0.9 31,095 25,325 28,814 160,524 153,536 4.6

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 7,415 7,086 7,624 4.6 -7.1 22.4 9,102 6,064 8,029 41,154 38,047 8.2

 New Orders.............................. 7,674 7,612 7,599 0.8 0.2 18.8 9,191 7,025 7,660 41,903 37,937 10.5

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 5,585 5,385 5,304 3.7 1.5 -5.0 6,834 5,043 6,664 32,288 33,984 -5.0

 New Orders.............................. 5,189 5,739 6,105 -9.6 -6.0 -4.5 5,579 5,433 5,452 36,027 33,284 8.2

 Semiconductors:5

 Shipments................................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 New Orders.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,662 8,572 8,600 1.0 -0.3 -0.5 9,497 8,691 9,792 51,776 54,116 -4.3

 New Orders.............................. 8,834 8,507 8,631 3.8 -1.4 -2.4 9,451 8,509 9,758 51,869 54,035 -4.0

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 50,822 49,484 49,506 2.7 0.0 -3.2 55,255 52,803 55,707 312,796 321,103 -2.6

 New Orders.............................. 50,823 48,927 49,968 3.9 -2.1 -4.7 54,029 51,904 49,446 316,030 316,143 0.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 35,837 35,160 35,289 1.9 -0.4 -3.7 38,352 38,575 39,388 227,189 234,127 -3.0

 New Orders.............................. 35,760 34,989 35,198 2.2 -0.6 -3.6 38,052 38,122 39,215 226,748 234,489 -3.3

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 6,169 5,440 5,301 13.4 2.6 -11.4 7,122 5,228 7,023 33,834 40,412 -16.3

 New Orders.............................. 5,710 4,760 4,507 20.0 5.6 51.2 7,012 4,252 3,415 28,398 30,457 -6.8

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,398 3,223 3,360 5.4 -4.1 1.8 3,965 3,138 3,650 19,072 16,645 14.6

 New Orders.............................. 3,830 3,737 4,601 2.5 -18.8 -21.0 3,583 4,503 2,493 24,949 20,930 19.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 32,118 31,813 31,527 1.0 0.9 -0.8 34,524 32,405 33,239 188,530 184,027 2.4

 New Orders.............................. 32,147 31,895 31,562 0.8 1.1 0.1 34,544 32,567 32,853 189,429 183,557 3.2

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 64,540 63,223 63,300 2.1 -0.1 0.6 73,096 62,315 71,213 378,714 377,925 0.2

 New Orders.............................. 65,163 62,943 64,806 3.5 -2.9 -2.8 70,610 62,139 62,400 389,100 362,715 7.3

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 57,286 55,875 55,847 2.5 0.1 0.2 65,229 55,005 63,919 335,646 339,990 -1.3

 New Orders.............................. 57,021 55,891 55,793 2.0 0.2 -0.1 62,990 55,321 56,698 337,685 323,279 4.5

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 54,251 53,531 53,772 1.3 -0.4 1.3 61,540 52,556 60,357 320,370 318,820 0.5

 New Orders.......................... 54,630 54,315 54,027 0.6 0.5 -2.8 59,945 53,640 55,802 327,411 312,676 4.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,254 7,348 7,453 -1.3 -1.4 3.8 7,867 7,310 7,294 43,068 37,935 13.5

 New Orders.............................. 8,142 7,052 9,013 15.5 -21.8 -17.0 7,620 6,818 5,702 51,415 39,436 30.4

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(01), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment

4 Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey

 the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

5 Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor

shipments, orders, or inventories.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change Jun May Apr May - Apr - Mar - Jun May Jun 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Jun 2 May r Apr 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 477,247 476,650 477,402 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 480,332 483,486 489,548 -1.9

 Total Inventories...................... 260,959 262,429 263,209 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 258,916 264,400 263,471 -1.7

 Excluding transportation:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 229,834 229,238 229,433 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 230,634 232,562 240,877 -4.3

 Total Inventories...................... 187,972 188,767 189,655 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 186,780 190,631 192,151 -2.8

 Excluding defense:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 327,281 327,299 327,828 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 327,955 330,436 345,739 -5.1

 Total Inventories...................... 236,965 238,761 239,261 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 234,859 240,779 241,144 -2.6

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 477,247 476,650 477,402 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 480,332 483,486 489,548 -1.9

 Total Inventories...................... 211,750 212,852 213,565 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 210,073 214,281 214,744 -2.2

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 14,033 13,807 13,902 1.6 -0.7 -1.1 14,257 14,074 16,405 -13.1

 Total Inventories...................... 18,817 18,786 18,931 0.2 -0.8 -0.6 18,555 18,569 18,106 2.5

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 36,538 36,472 36,448 0.2 0.1 -1.5 36,755 36,966 39,826 -7.7

 Total Inventories...................... 30,335 30,496 30,490 -0.5 0.0 -0.8 30,377 30,725 30,624 -0.8

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 43,337 43,513 44,444 -0.4 -2.1 -1.2 43,199 44,312 47,926 -9.9

 Total Inventories...................... 43,442 43,524 43,658 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 42,929 43,829 44,581 -3.7

 Computers and electronic products:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 111,105 110,826 110,036 0.3 0.7 0.1 111,748 112,509 112,221 -0.4

 Total Inventories...................... 39,248 39,615 40,162 -0.9 -1.4 -0.9 38,827 40,460 42,734 -9.1

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 8,319 8,060 7,534 3.2 7.0 -0.3 8,452 8,363 6,694 26.3

 Total Inventories...................... 6,861 6,763 6,674 1.4 1.3 -3.1 6,685 7,154 6,899 -3.1

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 41,176 41,572 41,218 -1.0 0.9 2.0 41,409 42,664 41,553 -0.3

 Total Inventories...................... 7,763 7,869 7,991 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 7,654 8,019 9,917 -22.8

 Semiconductors:5

 Unfilled Orders........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 14,527 14,355 14,420 1.2 -0.5 0.2 14,292 14,338 14,795 -3.4

 Total Inventories...................... 12,289 12,344 12,356 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 12,241 12,690 12,980 -5.7

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 247,413 247,412 247,969 0.0 -0.2 0.2 249,698 250,924 248,671 0.4

 Total Inventories...................... 72,987 73,662 73,554 -0.9 0.1 0.6 72,136 73,769 71,320 1.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 11,924 12,001 12,172 -0.6 -1.4 -0.7 11,802 12,102 12,555 -6.0

 Total Inventories...................... 20,427 20,594 20,685 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 20,160 20,576 20,117 0.2

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 106,164 106,623 107,303 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 106,554 106,664 113,388 -6.0

 Total Inventories...................... 29,101 29,927 29,700 -2.8 0.8 1.3 28,548 30,037 29,442 -3.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 60,326 59,894 59,380 0.7 0.9 2.1 62,176 62,558 55,568 11.9

 Total Inventories...................... 11,943 11,812 11,784 1.1 0.2 1.4 11,967 11,689 10,796 10.8

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 10,294 10,265 10,183 0.3 0.8 0.3 10,383 10,363 9,704 7.0

 Total Inventories...................... 43,841 44,002 44,058 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 43,851 44,358 43,126 1.7

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders........................ 339,905 339,282 339,562 0.2 -0.1 0.4 342,043 344,529 340,228 0.5

 Total Inventories...................... 128,096 128,490 128,625 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 126,759 129,702 132,931 -4.6

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 209,037 209,302 209,286 -0.1 0.0 0.0 209,451 211,690 214,077 -2.2

 Total Inventories...................... 108,372 109,243 109,328 -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 107,028 110,384 114,145 -6.2

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders................... 128,824 128,445 127,661 0.3 0.6 0.2 129,238 130,833 130,763 -1.2

 Total Inventories.................. 86,603 86,702 86,798 -0.1 -0.1 -1.1 85,772 88,003 91,046 -5.8

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 130,868 129,980 130,276 0.7 -0.2 1.2 132,592 132,839 126,151 5.1

 Total Inventories...................... 19,724 19,247 19,297 2.5 -0.3 1.2 19,731 19,318 18,786 5.0

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
NOTICE

Revised historical data for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders will be issued on

August 19, 2003. The revisions to the historical data are the result of:

• benchmarking the shipments and inventory data to the 2000 and 2001 Annual Survey of

Manfactures (ASM) data;

• adjusting new and unfilled orders to be consistent with the benchmarked shipments and

inventory data;

• newly introduced data for semiconductor manufacturing from March 2002 forward;

• correcting monthly data for late receipts, reclassifications of reported data, and revisions to

previously reported data; and

• updating the seasonal adjustment factors for all series.

The publication will include data from 1992 through 2002. An accompanying press release will

include the revised 2003 January through June data. Please call Dan Sansbury on (301)763-4832 with

questions.

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)

survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations), end-of-month

order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). The M3 includes

approximately 4,000 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or

single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89 categories have been combined

into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total operations of those

companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the

category. The current coverage levels in the survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60

percent of the shipments estimates at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. 

The data collection is based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,000 reporting units and provide an indication of

the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all

manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,000 companies would yield different results. The M3 panel is

comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical

perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys

cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate

the monthly change for establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the

month-to-month movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.