UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE. | wit
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 PORCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela November 30, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95-213
M3-1(95)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
October 1995
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $1.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $167.3 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows increases of 2.9 percent and 5.1 percent in September and
August respectively and is the sixth decrease this year. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders increased $2.9 billion or 2.3 percent
to $128.7 billion. “Year to date, durable goods new orders are 8.2 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $4.5 billion or 10.5 percent to $38.6 billion; led by aircraft and parts, all component
categories decreased. This follows increases of 10.6 percent in September and 17.2 percent in August. Industrial machinery and equipment
decreased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $31.7 billion, following increases of 1.7 percent in September and 5.4 percent in August. Electronic
and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $1.8 billion or 6.2 percent to $29.8 billion, due to electronic
components. Primary metals increased $0.3 billion or 2.2 percent to $15.3 billion. This follows a 1.7 percent September decrease.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in October decreased $1.2 billion or 0.7 Percent to $164.7 billion, following increases of
1.1 percent in September and 5.3 percent in August. This is the third decline this year. Year to date, shipments are 8.1 percent above the
same period last year.

Transportation equipment, down for the sixth month this year, had the largest decrease, $1.1 billion or 2.8 percent to $38.6 billion. This
follows increases of 2.6 percent and 11.4 percent in September and August respectively. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased
$0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $31.9 billion, following increases of 2.1 percent in September and 4.0 percent in August. Electronic and other
electrical equipment decreased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $27.5 billion, following increases of 1.7 percent in September and 5.4 percent
in August. Primary metals, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $15.0 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in October increased $2.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $439.6 billion. This follows
a 0.7 percent September increase and is the third increase in the last four months.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $2.3 billion or 4.2 percent to $57.0 billion, following a 0.7 percent
September increase. This is the eighth increase this year and the twelfth in the last fourteen months. Primary metals, up for the third
consecutive month, increased $0.3 ion or 1.1 percent to $28.1 billion, following a 0.2 percent September increase. Industrial machinery
and equipment, down for the fourth consecutive month, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $72.4 billion. Transportation equipment
decreased slightly to $199.4 billion. This follows two consecutive monthly increases and declines in nearly every month since September

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October decreased $1.3 billion or 18.4 percent to $5.7 billion, following
increases of 1.1 percent in September and 39.4 percent in August. Shipments, down four of the last five months, decreased 0.6 percent,
following a 1.9 percent September decrease. Unfilled orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $108.2 billion, following increases
of 0.6 percent in September and 0.4 percent in August.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE_ New orders in October decreased $3.5 billion or 7.4 percent to $43.3 billion.
This follows increases of 12.2 percent in September and 3.6 percent in August. Shipments decreased $0.6 billion or 1.5 percent to $42.9
billion, following increases of 2.5 percent in September and 3.6 percent in August. Unfilled orders increased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent
to $206.3 billion, following a 1.6 percent September increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $1.5 billion or 3.7
percent to $38.2 billion, fol lowing increases of 7.3 percent in September and 3.0 percent in August; shipments decreased $0.4 billion or
1.0 percent to $38.3 billion, the first decrease since July; unfilled orders decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $98.3 billion, the third
decrease in the last four months.

© REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufactur lustries are: shipments, $304.5
billion (revised from $304.3 billion); new orders, $306.5 billion (unrevised); unfilled orders, $461.3 billion (revised from {461.5 billion);
and total inventories, $415.8 billion (revised from $415.6 billion).

OUR PRESS RELEASE INTERNET ADDRESS: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published December 7, 1995. The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled for December 27, 1995. This
report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe
(1-800-848-8199). The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-457-1214) can provide content information and general guidance.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Oct, Sept. s A Jul Oc Se Oe, | “ane
a sept. sept; ug.— july~ t, sept. t.
1995 i985! Get! | Sepir | Aug 1995* 1595! 1994 | Oct.95/94
DURABLE GOODS
ipments ..... 164,728 | 165,940 | 164,196 o7} +11] +53] 168,691 | 177,197 | 157,557 +71
New orders. | 167,284 | 168/903 | 164,082 10} +29] 45:2} 171751 | 176110 | 158839 +81
Unfilled orders ° 439/628 | 437,072 | 434,109 7 0.0 | 435,386 | 432,326 | 422,569 +3.0
Excluding defensi
Shipments. : 158,385 | 159,561 | 157,693 07} +12] +454} 162,494 | 170,200 | 150,899 +77
New orders : >| 161586 | 16184 | 157,140 02 | +30] +40 | 165,686 | 168544 | 152/248 +88
Unfilled orders 2220. 2.-- 225] 331/457 | 3281286 | 325'963 | +10 | +0.7 0.2 | 328163 | 324,971 | 312/593 +5.0
With unfilled orders
Shipments... 131,791 | 132,351 | 131,576 04] 406] 43.7 | 133,675 | 143,227 | 123,817 +8.0
New orders 134347 | 135314 | 131/462 07 | 429] 43.4 | 136,735 | 1425140 | 125,099 493
Primary metals :
Shipments... .... 15,005 14945 | 14936] +04] 401] +16] 15,298 15,324 14,066 48.8
New orders, 222.2 153323 147994 | 15258 | 42.2 A7] +66] 15316] 147446 14463 459
Unfilled orders’ - 28,092 | 27774 | 27725) +11 02] +12] 26430] 26.412 | 26,307 +05
Industrial machinery and equipmen
hipments 31,918 | 32,096 | 31.431 06} 421} 44.0] 30,906 | 35,040} = 27,736 | +114
New order 317654 | 31/947 | 3145 09} 417] +54] 31347] 34,436 | 30,041 +43
Untitled orders 72/388 | 72/652 | 72/801 04 02 00] 725145 | 71:704 | 66,158 +90
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments bees 27,480 27,623 27,174 0.5 1.7 45.4 27,619 30,415 23,951 +153
re mt 29,780 | 28030 | 26683 | +62] +50 57 | 30,482 | 291228 | 24343 | 425.2
Untied orders 220000 220000002 37035 | 54,735 | 54328 | +42 0. 09 | 56,254] 53,301 | 45,342 | 424.1
Transportation equipment
hips 38,627 | 39,721 | 38,725 28] +26] +114] 40,583 | 41,103 | 39,792 42.0
Newrorders | 38,585 | 43,104 | 38,988 | -10.5 | +106] +172 | 40687 | 44050 | 38,179 +6.6
Unfilled orders’ | 199,443 | 199/485 | 196,102 00} +17] 40.1 | 198,263 | 1981159 | 200,604 -l
CAPITAL GOODS
Total :
Shipments ...... 49.275 | 49,945 | 4! 13 +19} 434] 47,252 | $5,290 | 43,259 +92
New orders... 497032 | 53.7 48,618 89] +107) +75] ago] 58442 | 43,824 499
Unfilled orders << - 314401 | 314,734 | 31, 01 +12 O11 | 313229 | 312325 | 309'430 +12
Nondefense :
Shipments... 42,932 | 43,566 | 42,517 1s +25] +36] 41,055 | 48.293 | 36,601 +122
New orders ” - 433304 | 46,780 | 41/676 74] +122] +36 | 42/091 $0,876 | 37.233 | +13.0
Unfilled orders’: 206/320 | 205,948 | 202,734 | +0.2 +16 -04 | 206,006 | 204,970 | 199,454 433
Excluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments . 38,285 | 38,665 | 37,638 +27] +38] 36804] 42,966] 32,416] +13.
New orders. 38173 | 391629 | 36,924 +73] +30] 37356] 43.299 | 34.911 470
Unfilled ord 98325 | 98437 | 97,473 +10 07] 98}011 | 97:459 | 89508 495
Defense :
Shipments ... 6,343 6379 6,503 -0.6 19] 421 6,197 6,997 6.6:
New orders "| 5.728 7019 6,942 | -18.4 +h1 | 4394 6,065 7/366 6,591 8.0
Unfilled orders’ : 108,171 | 108,786 | 108,146 06 | +06] +04] 107,223 | 107355 | 109,97 2:

(NA) Not avaitale. * Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the tls forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted fr trading-day or calendar-month variations

* Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision, One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
‘response and nonreparing. Since the survey pane! is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our mast recent annual
tencimark pbicaton, Correm Ins Repors’ M3-[(92), “Manufactures Shipments, lavemors, and Onder: 19821992."

fe Cpl Govt nse nto Notes ; dns mcs, em egies a ns, eal cout cpa, comin nga mai ind epdpnen, menbekig mai, spc ny

ry, general and office refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electreal ta distr electrical 1 apparatus, ‘equipment,
Compleat ses, and wheat ‘hic, aicrah sik, and space veils cages ad party shi anus comporens, ralfoad eqipmes, and serch ant tvigaion equips.
Defense capital goods ‘ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank componenis, search and navigation equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Oct. | Oct. 1994-] Year ago Oct. Year ago Oct. | Oct. 1994-

Oct. 1994 | 1990-1994 | Sept. 1995 | Oct. 1994| 1990-1994 ct. 1994] 1990-1994 | Sept. 1995

Durable goods ..............-- 01 03 03 03 4 03 ol 4
Primary metals . : 07 04 06 12 07 05 05

Industrial machinery’ and equipment . 04 07 06 12 10 08 03 0

Electronic and other

elecirical equipment . 05 08 04 20 16 08 03 04

Transportation equipment. | 02 04 05 01 06 0.0 0.0 on

Nondefense capa goods - 0.0 o1 07 10 08 03 02 on

Defense capital ol 1.0 07 ol 25 01 ol 02

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to si
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders

WBF ------------ 2-2 eee eee ee ee eee eee] —— 4175
Shipments

165 24165

155 155

145 145

135 135

125 L i L L 1 i 1 i 1 L it L L 125

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Oct. 1993 - Oct. 1995
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
51 51
New Orders
46 - - - ~~ rr reer eee Shipments |+{ 46

41

36

31

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Oct. 1993 - Oct. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.

cL GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1005 44-450 /70033