U.S. Department of Commerce

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS FIRST-CLASS MAIL

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CENSUS

Official Business PERMIT No. G-58

Penalty for Private Use, $300

NOTICE

Revised historical data for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and
Orders will be issued in mid-July. The revisions to the historical
data are the result of:

e benchmarking the shipments and inventory data to the revised,
1988-1991 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM); 1992 Census of
Manufactures; and 1993-1994 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM).

e benchmarking the defense shipments series to the 1992 MC9675
"Shipments to Federal Government Agencies."

e adjusting new and unfilled orders to be consistent with the
benchmarked shipments and inventory data.

e correcting monthly data for late receipts, reclassification of
reported data, and revisions to previously reported data.

e updating the trading day adjustment factors for the shipments
series.

° updating the seasonal adjustment factors for all series,

including re-evaluating options used.

The publication will include data from 1982-December 1995. An
accompanying press release will include the revised 1996 January - May
data. Please call Kathy Menth on (301) 457-4832 with questions.



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | 2
ADMINISTRATION
: en
NEW noe
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 May 24, 1996
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB96-84
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(96)-4

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS Aye AO URERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
April 1996
(All figures in text below are 4 seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $3.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $166.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.6 percent March increase and is the third decrease in
the last four months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased $2.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $128.0 billion, the fourth increase in
the last five months. Year-to-date new orders are 3.6 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, had the largest decrease, $5.5 billion or 12.6 percent to $38.0 billion, as
a large decrease in aircraft and parts more than offset an increase in motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 14.6 percent March increase.
Electronic and other electrical equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.8 billion or 2.7 percent to $27.3 billion, due
to communication equipment. This follows a 4.8 percent March increase. Primary metals, up for the first month since October, increased
$1.0 billion or 7.0 percent to $14.8 billion, following a 3.7 percent March decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up three of the
last four months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $33.0 billion. This follows a 4.5 percent March decrease.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in April increased $3.0 billion or 1.8 percent to $166.9 billion, following a 0.2 percent March
\ decrease. This is the second increase in the last three months. Year-to-date shipments are 2.4 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $2.5 billion or 6.8 percent to $39.1 billion, due to

motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 3.0 percent March decrease. Primary metals, up for the first month since September, increased

$0.4 billion or 3.1 percent to $14.7 billion, following a 0.2 percent March decline. Industrial machinery and equipment, down three of

the last four months, decreased $0.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $32.7 billion, following a 0.9 percent March decrease. Electronic and other

clectrical equipment, down for the first month since January, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $27.8 billion, following a 1.5 percent
larch increase.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in April decreased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $456.4 billion. This follows
a 1.2 percent March increase and is the first decline since August.

Transportation equipment, down for the first month since October, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $217.3 billion; led by aircraft
and parts, all component industries declined. This follows a 3.2 percent March increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down
for the third consecutive month, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $53.5 billion, following a slight March decrease. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $74.1 billion. This follows a 0.6 percent
March decrease. Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $28.3 billion, following a 1.4 percent March decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in April, down two of the last three months, decreased $3.3 billion or 35.1
percent to $6.1 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This fc .9 percent March increase. Shipments, down three of the last four
months, decreased $0.3 billion or 4.4 percent to $6.2 billion, following a 2.7 percent March increase. Unfilled orders, down two of the
last three months, decreased $0.1 billion to $111.5 billion, following a 2.7 percent March increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in April decreased $6.0 billion or 12.2 percent to $42.9 billion. This
follows a 4.8 percent March increase and is the third decline in the last four months. Shipments, down for the first month since January,
decreased $1.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $43.7 billion. This follows a 0.7 percent March increase. Unfilled orders decreased $0.8 billion
or 0.4 percent to $224.6 billion, the first decline since August. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $1.1 billion or 2.8
percent to $39.2 billion, the second consecutive monthly decline; shipments, down for the first month since January, decreased $0.9 billion
or 2.2 percent to $39.1 billion, following a 0.3 percent March increase; and unfilled orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $101.3
billion, the seventh increase in the last eight months.

@ REVISED MARCH DATA Revised seasonally adjusted March figures for all manufacturing industries are: Shipments. $304.3 billion
(revised from $304.1 billion); new orders, $309.0 billion (unrevised); unfilled orders, $479.7 billion (revised from $479.8 billion); and total
inventories, $421.8 billion (revised from $422.4 billion).

L SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 4, 1996. The advance report on durable goods for May is scheduled for June 26, 1996. This report is available
‘on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online information
service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
ARs Mar. Feb, | Mar; | Feb-|  Jan- ni Mar, AB
1996? 1996" 1996 | Apr? | Mar‘ | Feb. 19 1996" 1995 | Apr.96/95
DURABLE GOODS
Total =
Shipments 166,893 | 163,888 | 164,254 | +18 02 13] 165,521 | 176,514] 156,874
New orders 165.975 | 169,252 | 164980] -19| +426] -25 | 166:038 | 183,168 | 156,020 464
Unfilled orders ? 456,361 | 457279 | 451:916 | 02 | +12 0:2 | 462421 | 461,904 | 441,244
Excluding defense :
Shipments. 160,728 | 157,439 | 157977 | #21 0.3 159,824 | 169,635 | 150,811 +60
orders 159862 | 159830 | 159,195 oo} +04 16 | 160/821 | 170,807 | 151,598 +61
Datiied Grders” 44;896 | 345,762 | 343,371 03 | +07 348/547 | 347/550 | 328/456 46.1
With unfilled order:
Shipments. . 133,722 | 132,971 | 132,741 | +06] +02] +18] 129,801 | 143,647 | 123,301 453
New orders 133804 | 138335 | 133,467] 40 | 436] -29 | 130;408 | 150301 | 122,447 465
Primary metals
Shipments 14,685 | 14,246 | 14,269 1 ad 03 14,946 | 15,205 Ll
New orders 04 | 13841 | 14372 | +710 “0.1 | 14398 15193 | 14813 +12
Unfilled orders: 2! 2! : 28/323 204 | 28, + +04 | 297993 | 30,044 | 30,677 22
Ingustrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . . 32,683 | 33218 | 33.534] -16| -09] +46 1,234 | 39,093 | 29,119 +73
New orders 33028 | 32738 | 34,266 | +09 4.5] +45 7636 | 37,483 | 29/286 +80
Unfilled orders 74,088 | 73,743 | 74223 | +05 06 | +150 | 74209 | 73,807 | 71/520 $3.2
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments . 27,822 | 28,100} 27,678 | -1 +15] +425] 26201] 29,697 | 23,594] +110
New orders 27327 | 281088 99 | 27] +48] 21 | 27417 | 28549 | 25/949 +57
Unfilled orders 531485 | 53980 | 531992] -0 00 | 16 | $4723 | 537507 | 52,675 89
‘Transportation equipment :
Shipm 39,149 | 36,651 | 37,787 30] +12| 41,074] 39,225] 39,707 3.4
Reworders 37/959 | 43,433 126] +146] -124 | 397782 | 481425 | 37141 471
Unfilled orders 2177300 | 218,490 | 211:709 + 40.1 | 2195801 | 221,093 | 201/668 ‘0
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total
Shipments . 49982] sii24] 50640] +10] +55] 46,469] 58,003] 45,011
New orders 49017 | 58/285 | 52390 | -159] +113] 53] 45367 | 66.681 | 42,288 473
Unfilled ord 336069 | 336934 | 329774] ~-03| +422] +05 | 338762 | 339864 | 316267
Nondefense :
‘Shipments : 43,717 | 44,675 | 44,363] 2.1 4] 40,772 | siiz4] 38,948 +47
New orders: >: 47'904 | 48°83 | 46;605 | -122 | 448] 25] 40,150] 543320 | 37866 +6.0
Unfilled orders’! | i} 224604 | 225417 | 221/229 | -0.4 +10 | 224888 | 225/510 | 2037479 | +105
Excluding aireraft and parts:
Shipm :| 39139 | 40,014 | 39,901 22 460 | 36273) 45.994 | 33,683
Reeders | 39/208 | 40,327 | 41048 | -2'8 18] +48 45265 | 33/939 476
Unfilled orders’ 101285 | 101,216 | 100/903 | +0.1 THE | 18P383 | 108363] 37186
Defense :
6,165 6,449 6277] 44 0.4 5,697 6879 6,063 6.0
: 6113 9,422 5785 | -351 | +629] -23.0 5217 | 12361 4492 | +18.
Untitled orders’ | 11i465 | 111/517 | 1087545 00 “OS | 1137874 | 114354 | 112;788 +10

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

* Shipments sn se ren ae al he pil ala ated any and calendar-moath variations; unfilled orders are 28 ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

aaa sample, Est : and orders are subject to survey ertor and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which inches errors of coverage.
sou oamreporing, Siac the survey pant! no a probably sample, esumates of samplng erorcanot be Clcued. Farber deals on survey deigh, Methodology, ah data lions arc contained in Qu most cen ano
eschmak pobleaion, Curren last Reports: Mi-1(0), "Manufacres” Shipment, Tavenris, and Orders 1982-1992."

Pe Capa Gen Intern cde Nondrfeae; xhunce sed sce, team engines and wus, ineral combustion engines, construction mining and material taling upment, meavoring machinery spec industry

eng and sevice industry .
‘Sample stereft, misles, and space vehicles, Shera matlc and space ce cgans tnd pars ships tl bak af sot search aed tavigtion
Defense capil. goods incade ordnance, atbmeln aber wc, os WAC, aod puro, shpe, unis an an Cnpeen, eeach an tvigsion ep

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago “Apr. | Apr. 1995-| Year ago “Apt | Apr. 1995-] Year ago ‘Apr. | Apr. 1995-

Apr. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Mar. 1996 | Apr. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Mar. 1996] Apr. 1995] 1991-1995 | Mar. 1996

Durable goods . 0.1 0.2 03 0.5 04 0.5 0.1 0.1 Ol

Primary metals . . 04 0.7 04 18 08 1.0 0.6 04 04

Industrial machine equipment 02 0.7 0.6 04 09 1.0 0.1 01 04
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 03 05 0s ou 07 07 02 02 03

Transportation fauipment ae 03 04 0.6 09 09 1.6 0.2 OL 03

Nondefense ci joods oe 03 03 0.7 07 08 13 0.0 0.0 02

Defense capit ‘woods 0.7 0.5 1.0 3.1 5.3 6.2 0.2 0.2 04

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders

VBP - - er er eee ed Shipments |-] 175

165

155

145 F- - - - - 5 5 rr re rr re er re rr rrr eed 145

135 1 L L L 1 L i L L L L 1 1 135

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb = Apr
Apr. 1994- Apr. 1996

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

BB -- ee rt er re ee re eee New Orders |+{ 53

Shipments

48

43

38

33 L L 1 L woe L L L i il L L L 33
Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb = Apr

Apr. 1994- Apr. 1996

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.

yr U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1996 404-450/20079