UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE sites.
N =—=WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mURCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela June 23, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95-119
M3-1(95)-5

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GooDs MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
‘ay
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $3.9 billion or 2.5 percent to $159.6 billion, the Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 4.5 percent April decline and is the first increase since January.
Year to date, new orders are 9.2 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 3.0 percent to $36.5 billion, due to aircraft and aircraft
parts. This follows a 10.2 percent April decrease and is the first increase since February. Electronic and other electrical ecuipment
increased $0.9 billion or 3.4 percent to $26.6 billion, with over half of the increase in communication equipment. This follows a 3.3
percent April decrease and is the eighth increase in the last ten months. Industrial machinery and equipment, up four of the last five
months, increased $0.9 billion or 2.8 percent to $31.2 billion. This follows a 4.6 percent Apri! decline. Primary metals increased 0.3
percent to $14.7 billion. This follows a 3.6 percent April decline and is the first increase since December. Stone, clay and glass
products also increased.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in May increased $1.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $159.4 billion, following a 2.2 percent April
decline. This is the sixth increase in the last seven months. Year to date, shipments are 9.2 percent above the same period last year.
Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.6 billion or 2.4 percent to $25.5 billion, following a 1.1 percent April decrease.
Industrial machinery and equipment, up five of the last six months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.7 percent to $30.7 billion, following
0.5 percent April decrease. Primary metals increased $0.2 billion or 1.6 percent to $15.2 billion. This follows a 2.5 percent April
decrease and is the fourteenth increase in the: last sixteen months. Transportation equipment, down for the fourth consecutive month,
declined $0.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $37.3 billion; both motor vehicle and parts and aircraft and parts declined.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods ‘n May increased slightly to $436.1 billion. This follows a 0.5 percent April decrease and
is the eighth increase in the last nine months. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.2 billion or 2.3 percent to $52.4
billion, the ninth consecutive monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $72.4
billion. This follows a 0.2 percent April increase and is the twenty-second increase in the last twenty-three months. Transportation
equipment had the largest decline, $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $199.0 billion. This follows a 1.4 percent April decline and is the
third consecutive monthly decline. Since reaching a peak in March 1991, unfilled orders of transportation equipment have declined
nearly every month. Primary metals declined $0.5 billion or 1.7 percent to $28.7 billion. This follows declines in April and March
of 1.0 percent and 0.4 percent respectively and fifteen consecutive monthly increases.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders in May increased $0.5 billion or 9.5 percent to $5.7 billion. This follows a decrease in Apri: of 27.7
percent and is the third increase in the last four months. Shipments were up $0.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $6.6 billion, following a
1.6 percent April decline. Unfilled orders decreased $0.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $110.3 billion, following a 1.2 percent April
decrease.

Nondefense - New orders in May increased $2.7 billion or 6.8 percent to $42.8 billion. This follows a 5.9 percent April
decline and is the fourth increase in the last five months. Shipments increased $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $41.7 billion, the seventh
consecutive monthly increase. Unfilled orders, up four of the last five months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $204.4 billion.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.5 billion or 4.1 percent to $37.6 billion, following a 5.6 percent April decline;
shipments increased $0.9 billion or 2.5 percent to $36.9 billion, the ninth increase in the last ten months; unfilled orders increased $0.7
billion or 0.7 percent to $97.6 billion, the twenty-fourth consecutive monthly increase.

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 30, 1995. The advance report on durable goods for June is scheduled for July 27, 1995. This report is available
on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online information
service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Apr. Mar. | Mar-|  Feb~ .
ie | 1888 Mas | fp | Mos] Mac] 8] 388 133% | mayosio4
+09 22] +02] 160,898 | 156,934 | 151,188 +64
425 45] 02] 159279 | 156/096 | 150/852 +56
00 05] +03 | 439%641 | 441260 | 427,471 +28
+09 -22| +02] 154,628 | 150,867 | 144,612 469
423 35] 04] 154955 | 151670 | 144,931 +69
+03 3] +03 | 328,799 | 328/472 | 313,732 +48
+14 14] +05] 127241] 123361 | 117,237 +85
43.5 44 0.0 | 1257622 | 122523 | 116901 47:
Primary metals :
15,164 | 14927 | 15,305} +16 25] +10) 15494] 15205] 12,989] +193
14671 | 14,631 | 157182] +03 36) 03] 14447] 14813 | 13,481 +
28,663 | 29,156 | 29,452 17 oH 04 | 29/630 | 30/677 | 26,008 |  +13.9
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Newrorgers’ | 3331 38202] Gash] tea] 28) 02) HBS] Baek) Bas | a8
Unfilled orders’ | 727391 71;875 717701 +07 2 42:1 72/457 717989 58/942 +229
Electronic and other
“Supmens men 25,455 24,857 25,138 1.1 14,884 1,594 21,862 13.8
ceees -L. +
New orders... 26.612 | 25.726 6598 | 43.4 33 | +73] 25,680 949 | 21° +202
Unfilled orders’: : 332h4 | 34287 | 30308 2. 417 Ben | seers | areas | 23
‘Transportation ment
‘Shipments m equip 37341] 38,154] 39; 21 44] 06] 39514] 39,7281 40,352 21
New orders | 36485 | 35419 | 391457 | +3.0 | -102] -29 | 37,716 | 37,109 | 38967 32
Unfilled orders | : IIIT} 9sioga | 1993840 | 202/575 04 -14| 02 | 199/817 | 201,615 | 209734 47
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
oe san | aoe] ago) sot) g3) ee] dee) gu) ee) 38
Unfilled orders 3147669 | 314481 | 317,125 | +01 08{ +06} 315,340 | 316283 | 312/965 +08
Nondefense :
‘Shipments. 41714 | 41407 | 41,403 | +0.7 oo} +11] 40076 | 39,004] 35,116] +141
‘New orders 42845 | 40,121 | 42/628 | +68 59] +14] 41079] 37938 | 343 | +197
Unfilled orders : 2043350 | 203,219 | 204505 | +06 06] +06] 204, 203,495 | 1997226 426
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . :| 36927 | 36,042] 36355] 42.5 09] +1 5,546 | 33,739 | 30,984 | +148
New orders: 377586 | 36,094] 38240] 41 56| 438) 36077] 34011] 31,096] +160
Unfilled orders”: 57355 | 96,896] 96844) +07] +01 97,703 | 97.172} 81976 | +192
er poments 6.614 6,537 6,643 12 16 00 6270 6,067 6,576 AT
nts... 5. + “1 x 5, 5. .
New orders 5671 51179 7159 | 495 | 277) +43 4324 426 5921 270
Unfilled orders 1107319 | 111,262 | 112/620 03 12] 405] 1107842 | 112,788 | 113,739 “25

(1A) Not available. ' Revie.
1 Shipments snd sew orders ae the totais fo the period and are adjusied for trading day and caledar-snomth variations; weed orders ar as of the cad ofthe period aad are mot ajstd for tading-dny or calemdar-moath varios.
2 Based on advance sample, Estimsica of mancfactarers’ shipments, iventoret, snd orders are mbject to sarvey error and revision. One susjor componest of ervey errr is somampling ervor, which inches errors of coverage,
response and Since the survey panel is at Tiamplc, eximues of sampling oor camor be calcuiied, Furter detals on sereey Gcign, mechodology, and dee limkations ort comsined four most reat sama!
encheart pobicaton, Reports: 3-1 ” Shipenets, snd Orders: 1982-1992."
* The Caplal Goods Industries iachade Nomdefense : erdanace and accessories, tram engines and uxbines, itera] combustion cxmmrection mining snd maria! banding equipment, metshworkiog speci ory
machincry, peacral ius] machinery, Computer and cifice equipment, refrigtion, heating ad service iadwery machinery, electrical ranemissoa and Gaxrbucion eqpipmcat,elecarcal ictal pperams, plement,
Turcra claiies, and space vebickes, sicrof minsiles, ani space vehicle eagles sad parts, ships and tank componess, railroad opment, and soarch and savigaion equipeeat.
‘eapll goods inchade'> ordnance, ‘equips, sircraft, miles, opace vebicis, and para, sips, tanks and tank component, search and mevigaton equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
Gased on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry "Year ago May | May 1994-| Year ago May | May 1994-| Year ago May | May 1994-
May 1994 | 1990-1994 | Apr. 1995 | May 1994] 1990-1994 | Apr. 1995 | May 1994] 1990-1994] Apr. 1995
03 02 02 05 0.7 04 01 02 Or
0.7 04 07 14 0.5 Ll 05 04 04
4 03 0.6 02 0.5 09 Ol 02 03
04 04 04 0.1 08 08 02 03 04
0.7 04 0.6 10 20 09 0.0 02 0.1
Nondefense capi 02 02 07 Oo. 06 12 0.0 03 02
Defense Tapia poole. 0.0 04 07 24 13 3.1 0.1 0.1 02

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes ofthe advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders

175 F- - --- 2 - eee e eee ---------] —— 14.175
Shipments

165 165

155 155

145 145

135 135

125 L L a il 1 1. 1 L i 1 1 i 1 125

May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
May. 1993 - May. 1995
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
ag9Pe--- >> =] 49
New Orders
i Shipments |_| 44

39 Act - +e 439

34 34

29 1 1 L L 1 1 L 1 L L L 1 L 29
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

May. 1993 - May. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.