U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-08

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

September 24, 2004

CB-04-166

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

August 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $195.4 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.8 percent July increase. Excluding

transportation, new orders increased 2.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 12.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $4.0 billion or 6.8 percent to $55.4 billion, due to nondefense aircraft and

parts, which decreased $5.3 billion. The decrease in transportation equipment offsets increases in other industry categories. 

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in August, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.7 percent to

$201.0 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent July increase and is at the highest level since April 2000. Year-to-date, shipments

for 2004 were 11.1 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up three of the last four months, increased $2.4 billion or 4.6 percent to $54.6

billion. Wood products increased $0.6 billion or 6.5 percent to $9.7 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in August, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $1.8

billion or 0.3 percent to $535.5 billion. This followed a 1.2 percent July increase and is at the highest level since June 2001.

Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $260.5 billion.

Fabricated metal products, up eleven of the last thirteen months, increased $0.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $45.1 billion. 

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in August, up nine consecutive months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.6 percent

to $276.5 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent July increase.

Computers and electronic products, up six consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.6 billion or 1.2 percent to $49.2

billion. Primary metals, up ten consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 2.1 percent to $19.5 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in August increased $0.4 billion or 4.5 percent to $8.5 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.5 percent to $8.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.1 billion to $141.7 billion. 

Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $19.3 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August decreased $5.2 billion or 7.4 percent to $64.7

billion. Shipments increased $0.9 billion or 1.4 percent to $64.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to

$234.6 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $109.3 billion.

! REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $370.3

billion (revised from $369.6 billion); shipments, $371.6 billion (revised from $371.0 billion); unfilled orders, $533.7 billion

(revised from $533.6 billion); and total inventories, $458.3 billion (revised from $458.0 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published October 4, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for

September is scheduled for October 27 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Aug Jul Jun Jul - Jun - May - Aug Jul Aug Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Aug 2 Jul r Jun 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 200,977 197,547 196,708 1.7 0.4 1.2 201,708 173,525 177,143 1,547,126 1,392,261 11.1

 New Orders 4

.............................. 195,377 196,274 192,722 -0.5 1.8 1.3 191,666 170,553 170,725 1,520,923 1,352,927 12.4

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 146,361 145,322 142,459 0.7 2.0 1.3 146,274 135,489 126,761 1,117,961 990,948 12.8

 New Orders 4.............................. 139,945 136,816 136,874 2.3 0.0 -0.1 137,066 127,483 120,775 1,085,188 950,621 14.2

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 191,078 187,849 187,079 1.7 0.4 1.3 192,237 164,605 168,246 1,470,664 1,323,368 11.1

 New Orders 4

.............................. 185,710 186,887 181,586 -0.6 2.9 0.0 184,575 164,478 161,179 1,444,905 1,277,434 13.1

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 137,228 136,293 134,058 0.7 1.7 1.6 136,624 121,757 119,157 1,051,145 945,208 11.2

 New Orders 4.............................. 139,008 142,481 137,230 -2.4 3.8 1.6 133,671 125,236 118,920 1,079,740 950,887 13.6

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 14,471 14,210 13,782 1.8 3.1 4.1 14,791 13,289 10,758 108,116 87,982 22.9

 New Orders.............................. 14,914 14,982 13,973 -0.5 7.2 1.9 15,161 13,978 11,107 112,333 88,166 27.4

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 23,189 23,141 22,828 0.2 1.4 1.0 24,297 22,050 20,848 179,169 162,755 10.1

 New Orders.............................. 23,928 22,960 23,123 4.2 -0.7 2.4 24,656 21,847 20,926 186,376 162,696 14.6

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 24,860 25,134 24,340 -1.1 3.3 4.7 24,054 23,736 20,304 192,778 167,578 15.0

 New Orders.............................. 24,798 24,790 24,575 0.0 0.9 1.5 23,566 23,229 20,240 197,445 166,397 18.7

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 39,675 39,277 38,226 1.0 2.7 0.2 37,251 34,446 33,241 296,029 259,784 14.0

 New Orders 4.............................. 31,982 30,716 32,090 4.1 -4.3 -1.2 27,911 26,155 27,155 244,793 219,611 11.5

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,546 8,641 8,117 -1.1 6.5 -0.8 7,772 8,063 6,962 63,921 55,949 14.2

 New Orders.............................. 8,322 8,260 8,709 0.8 -5.2 0.2 7,650 7,452 7,528 63,319 56,651 11.8 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 7,557 7,035 6,798 7.4 3.5 -2.2 6,959 5,729 5,998 53,326 47,102 13.2

 New Orders.............................. 7,067 6,620 6,285 6.8 5.3 -4.4 5,140 5,073 5,062 51,610 51,283 0.6

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 7,380 7,461 7,158 -1.1 4.2 -1.9 7,089 6,451 6,181 54,798 45,013 21.7

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 9,174 9,048 8,741 1.4 3.5 -0.3 9,129 8,279 8,188 69,134 65,702 5.2

 New Orders.............................. 9,202 9,042 8,473 1.8 6.7 -5.1 9,125 8,545 8,273 70,681 65,911 7.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 54,616 52,225 54,249 4.6 -3.7 0.9 55,434 38,036 50,382 429,165 401,313 6.9

 New Orders.............................. 55,432 59,458 55,848 -6.8 6.5 4.8 54,600 43,070 49,950 435,735 402,306 8.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 38,499 36,661 38,168 5.0 -3.9 1.5 39,965 24,925 36,471 307,140 289,385 6.1

 New Orders.............................. 38,799 36,714 38,438 5.7 -4.5 1.1 39,989 25,176 36,176 308,554 289,049 6.7 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 6,335 5,907 6,226 7.2 -5.1 -5.8 5,922 4,647 5,048 45,717 43,321 5.5

 New Orders.............................. 7,134 12,478 6,130 -42.8 103.6 -9.2 6,895 10,741 4,628 51,814 36,836 40.7

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,738 3,542 3,706 5.5 -4.4 1.1 3,514 3,198 3,358 29,135 25,213 15.6

 New Orders.............................. 2,923 3,008 5,152 -2.8 -41.6 81.3 1,622 1,894 2,511 24,216 29,275 -17.3

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 34,992 34,512 34,542 1.4 -0.1 -0.3 36,752 33,689 33,422 272,735 247,147 10.4

 New Orders.............................. 35,121 34,326 34,640 2.3 -0.9 -1.2 36,647 33,729 33,074 273,560 247,840 10.4

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 72,763 71,778 70,403 1.4 2.0 1.0 69,634 65,175 61,570 553,986 494,588 12.0

 New Orders.............................. 73,186 78,014 73,591 -6.2 6.0 4.9 66,251 68,540 61,425 568,191 503,210 12.9

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 64,321 63,459 62,363 1.4 1.8 1.8 61,469 57,415 53,890 488,493 435,777 12.1

 New Orders.............................. 64,690 69,885 63,934 -7.4 9.3 1.5 59,877 63,249 53,039 501,551 437,843 14.6

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 61,703 61,416 60,055 0.5 2.3 2.6 59,124 55,894 51,781 469,767 416,206 12.9

 New Orders......................... 61,044 61,328 60,983 -0.5 0.6 1.8 56,330 55,691 51,010 476,565 423,354 12.6

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,442 8,319 8,040 1.5 3.5 -4.3 8,165 7,760 7,680 65,493 58,811 11.4

 New Orders.............................. 8,496 8,129 9,657 4.5 -15.8 34.7 6,374 5,291 8,386 66,640 65,367 1.9

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Aug Jul Jun Jul - Jun - May - Aug Jul Aug 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Aug 2 Jul r Jun 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 535,505 533,725 527,537 0.3 1.2 0.6 531,011 533,964 486,358 9.2

 Total Inventories....................... 276,468 274,750 271,849 0.6 1.1 0.9 279,395 276,845 265,538 5.2

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 275,001 274,037 275,082 0.4 -0.4 0.6 273,160 275,279 240,949 13.4

 Total Inventories....................... 207,628 205,502 203,338 1.0 1.1 1.1 209,617 206,776 197,024 6.4

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 375,483 373,471 366,972 0.5 1.8 0.5 373,498 374,071 335,213 11.4

 Total Inventories....................... 252,561 250,705 247,574 0.7 1.3 1.1 255,128 252,450 242,137 5.4

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 535,505 533,725 527,537 0.3 1.2 0.6 531,011 533,964 486,358 9.2

 Total Inventories....................... 215,575 214,392 211,893 0.6 1.2 0.9 217,991 216,131 207,963 4.8

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 20,138 19,695 18,923 2.2 4.1 1.0 20,219 19,849 14,643 38.1

 Total Inventories....................... 19,472 19,068 18,829 2.1 1.3 1.6 19,606 19,187 17,782 10.3

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 45,087 44,348 44,529 1.7 -0.4 0.7 45,228 44,869 36,841 22.8

 Total Inventories....................... 33,731 33,389 32,903 1.0 1.5 1.3 33,861 33,663 31,048 9.1

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 47,942 48,004 48,348 -0.1 -0.7 0.5 47,549 48,037 41,239 15.3

 Total Inventories....................... 44,634 44,303 43,837 0.7 1.1 1.4 44,934 44,206 41,654 7.9

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 134,589 134,902 136,002 -0.2 -0.8 0.8 132,718 134,969 123,657 7.3

 Total Inventories....................... 49,234 48,650 48,222 1.2 0.9 1.4 50,440 49,378 48,132 4.8

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,115 8,339 8,720 -2.7 -4.4 7.3 8,203 8,325 8,826 -7.1

 Total Inventories....................... 6,230 6,201 6,082 0.5 2.0 3.4 6,626 6,247 6,528 1.5 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 49,331 49,821 50,236 -1.0 -0.8 -1.0 48,053 49,872 48,928 -1.8

 Total Inventories....................... 10,876 10,685 10,601 1.8 0.8 -1.1 11,088 10,842 11,115 -0.2

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,830 14,802 14,808 0.2 0.0 -1.8 14,962 14,966 14,001 6.9

 Total Inventories....................... 12,983 12,814 12,629 1.3 1.5 1.0 12,961 12,847 12,307 5.3

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 260,504 259,688 252,455 0.3 2.9 0.6 257,851 258,685 245,409 5.1

 Total Inventories....................... 68,840 69,248 68,511 -0.6 1.1 0.4 69,778 70,069 68,514 1.8

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,377 15,077 15,024 2.0 0.4 1.8 15,034 15,010 11,797 27.4

 Total Inventories....................... 21,649 21,475 21,561 0.8 -0.4 1.7 21,895 21,845 20,624 6.2 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 111,779 110,980 104,409 0.7 6.3 -0.1 111,168 110,195 105,009 5.9

 Total Inventories....................... 23,984 24,426 23,542 -1.8 3.8 0.2 24,328 24,513 25,242 -3.6

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 56,413 57,228 57,762 -1.4 -0.9 2.6 55,851 57,743 60,026 -7.0

 Total Inventories....................... 11,493 11,608 11,683 -1.0 -0.6 0.9 11,708 11,857 11,008 6.4

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,415 12,286 12,472 1.0 -1.5 0.8 12,484 12,589 10,568 18.1

 Total Inventories....................... 47,574 47,278 46,918 0.6 0.8 0.3 47,815 47,495 46,101 3.7

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 376,313 375,890 369,654 0.1 1.7 0.9 372,002 375,385 347,333 7.1

 Total Inventories....................... 128,576 128,371 127,041 0.2 1.0 0.7 130,492 129,032 126,455 3.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 234,619 234,250 227,824 0.2 2.8 0.7 232,605 234,197 215,468 8.0

 Total Inventories....................... 109,276 108,983 107,324 0.3 1.5 0.9 110,963 109,427 107,506 3.2

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 147,485 148,144 148,232 -0.4 -0.1 0.6 146,082 148,876 135,419 7.9

 Total Inventories.................. 91,868 91,209 90,436 0.7 0.9 1.1 93,315 91,661 89,591 4.2

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 141,694 141,640 141,830 0.0 -0.1 1.2 139,397 141,188 131,865 5.7

 Total Inventories....................... 19,300 19,388 19,717 -0.5 -1.7 0.1 19,529 19,605 18,949 3.1

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.