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NOTICE

Revised historical data for Manufacturers’ Shipments,
Inventories, and Orders will be issued in mid-June. The

primary purpose of the revision is to benchmark the data to the
1991 Annual Survey of Manufactures. Less significant revisions
will reflect the addition of data received too late to include
in the monthly press releases, corrections for misclassified
reports, and updating the trading day adjustment methodology.
Revisions related to benchmarking affect all industry categories.

Any questions regarding this announcement can be answered by
calling Steve Andrews on (301) 763-2502.



a=

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

AND

STATISTICS
COMMERCE | -2.
NEWS rsworn oc x0 | Ei

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth April 23, 1993
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB93-96
M3-1(93)-3

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE Goops MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
larch 1!
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $5.0 billion or 3.7 percent to $130.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.2 percent increase in February and a 2.3
percent decrease in January.

Nearly all major groups declined in March. Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $3.7 billion
or 10.2 percent to $32.7 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 9.5 percent increase in February and an
8.3 percent decrease in January. Fabricated metal products, electronic and other electrical equipment, and instruments and
related products have each declined for three consecutive months. Orders for first quarter 1993 totaled $397.2 billion, up 3.5
percent from fourth quarter 1992.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in March increased $1.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $135.0 billion, following a 2.7 percent
increase in February, the fourth increase in the last five months. Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase,
up $0.6 billion or 2.4 percent to $23.6 billion, following a 0.7 percent increase in February. Transportation equipment, up five
of the last six months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $36.5 billion, with increases in aircraft and parts and motor
vehicle and parts. Stone, clay, and glass products had the largest decrease. Shipments for first quarter 1993 totaled $399.5
billion, up 3.2 percent from fourth quarter 1992.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in March decreased $5.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $447.4 billion. This is the first
decrease since November 1992. Transportation equipment decreased $3.8 billion or 1.6 percent to $238.3 billion, the fourth
decline in the last five months. Electronic and other electrical equipment was down $1.0 billion or 2.3 percent to $42.4 billion,

following a 1.4 percent decline in February. Primary metals, up four months in a row, had the largest increase, up $0.9 billion
or 3.8 percent to $23.6 billion.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were up $0.4 billion or 6.5 percent to $6.8 billion, following a 27.9 percent decrease in February.
Shipments decreased 0.6 percent to $7.8 billion, following a 2.4 percent increase in February. Primarily due to shipbuilding
and tanks and aircraft and parts, unfilled orders decreased $1.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $126.1 billion. This follows a 1.2
percent decrease in February and is the lowest level since February 1984.

Nondefense - New orders decreased $4.3 billion or 12.4 percent to $30.2 billion following a 13.7 percent increase in
February. Shipments were up $0.8 billion or 2.5 percent to $33.8 billion, following a 0.8 percent increase in February. Unfilled
orders, down $3.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $215.0 billion, have declined in eleven of the last twelve months and are at the
lowest level since November 1989.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS)

TRAUTACHUTETS ick OTE GeTRIC
published April 30, 1993. ‘The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May
the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and
online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessins CENDATA can be obtained from Dialoz

Tacturens



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Mar, Feb. Jan. Feb.- Jan.- Dec.- Mar, Feb. Mar.
19934 1993" 1993 Mar.? Feb. Jan. 1993 1993" 1992 | Mar.93/92
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments wee . 135,003 134,03 130,465 +0.7 26 143,039 131,810 131,400 +89
New orders . on + 130,023 135,053 132,123 37 +2.2 23 137, 134,065 129,515 +63
Unfilled orders bees 447/409 452,389 451,372 “Ll +04 449,022 454,397 476,853 58
Excluding defense
sh jipments see 127,191 126,178 122,793 +0.8 2.7 135,013 124,398 122,784 +10.0
New orders . vee ee 123,270 128,710 123,325 42 +44 3.1 130,310 128,478 121,696 +71
Unfilled orders . seeeee 321,336 325,257 322,725 12 +0. +02 321,687 26,390, 336,468 44
With unfilled orders + :
Shipments a . . 107,879 106,587 104,242 +12 42.2 3.1 114,601 103,838 107,938 +62
New orders... rey 102,899 107,604 105,900 44 +16 2.6 109,226 106,093 106,053 3.0
Primary metals :
Shipments 11,394 11,414 MLS 0.2 +27 +0.9 11,658 11,381 11,290 +33
New orders 12,258 12,298 12,509 03 -17 +6.6 12,403 12,581 11,417 +8.6
Unfilled orders 23,569 22,705 21,821 43.8 +41 +6.8 23,9 23,215 21,649 +10.7
Industrial machin and equipment:
Shipments . 7 a 23,583 23,022 22,855 +24 +0.7 26,824 22,021 23,580 +138
‘New orders 23,410 502 23,112 0.4 +17 +33 25,950 22,611 22, +135
Unfilled orders 51,303 51,476 50,996 03 +09 51,214 52,088 53,293 39
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
sh hipments . 18,973 18,655 17,689 +17 +5.5 8.4 19,983 18,362 18,158 +10.1
orders 17,953 18,045 18,879 44 3.1 18,601 18,596 17,639 45.5
Uamed ordefs 42,444 43,464 074 23 “14 +28 42,637 44,019 42,111 412
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 36,477 36,201 35,303 8 +2. 33 38,633 36,567 34,928 +10.6
New orders see . se 32,685 36,386 33,223 10.2 49.5 83 5, 36,478 34,487 +28
Unfilled orders os 238,347 242,139 241,954 16 0. 0.9 239,356 242,543 264,743 -
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES!
Total :
Shipments see oe see 41,592 40,821 40,372 +19 +L 4.0 45,933 38,801 44,272 +3.
New orders . . 36,992 40,862 39,153 9.5 +44 6.8 41,036 38,676 43,223 5.1
Unfilled orders ......... 341,033 345,633 345,592 13 0.0 0.4 342161 347,058 374,006 8.5
Nondefense :
Shipments .........---- 33,780 32,963 32,700 +25 4.4 37,907 31,389 35,656 +63
New orders. sae 30,239 34,519 30,355 -12.4 +137 10.8 33,682 33,089 35,404 49
Unfilled orders)!!! . 214,960 218,501 216,945 -16 ald 214,826 2195051 233,621 8.0
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments 28,216 27,610 27,160 +22 +17 28 31,629 26,295 28,206 +121
New orders , 28,258 27,538 22 42.6 “17 30,373 27,087 27,449 +10.7
Unfilled orders 72,857 73,429 72,781 08 +0.9 +0.5 72,723 73}979 75,478 3.7
Defense :
Shipments . _ 7,812 7,858 7,672 0.6 42.4 2.4 § 1926 7,412 8,616 6.8
New orders... . 6,753 6,343 8,798 46.5 279 +10.6 5,587 7819 5.9
Unfilled orders ..... vee 126,073 127,132 128,647 08 12 +0.9 1273S 128,007 140,385 93

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

* Shipments and new orders are the ttals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are 28 ofthe end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations
» Based on advance sample,

Te Cpl Gonts nde eae None | ees ad espa age webs, re engines, ‘mining and ing ry, special industry
beaig nd seve inky machinery and
Teens alsan ies ant suse eke aicrah musica, nd sper veuce cagaes tnd para, she ant nk railroad and search and navigation

‘Defense capital goods inchde': orduance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, shipe, anks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1992-| Year ago Mar] Mar. 1992-] Year ago Mar] Mar. 1992-

Mar. 1992 | 1988-1992 | Feb. 1993 | Mar. 1992 | 1988-1992] Feb. 1993] Mar. 1992| 1988-1992] Feb. 1993

Durable goods 01 0.0 96 0.0 0.0 07 01 0.0 02

00 00 08 03 20 07 02 06

Industeal machinery and éguipment 00 00 00 ou 00 i ol 03 14
Electronic: and other

electrical equipment 04 0.1 22 03 Ol 24 03 0.1 06

Transportation equipment . . 0.6 02 08 14 05 22 OL 0.0 04

Nondefense ital goods as 0.0 0.0 14 07 02 16 0.1 0.0 0.1

Defense capit 01 0.0 18 34 Li 56 03 0.1 0.4

Note’ The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t:


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

150 150
New Orders

a ee Shipments |-] 140

130

120

110

100 L L 1 1 1 L 1 i i a Le L 1 100

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
Mar. 1991 - Mar. 1993

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

45 145
New Orders
40F---------------------------- +--+ eee Shipments

25 Lu 1 al n n de 1 a nl L Lt 95

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
Mar. 1991 - Mar. 1993

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.