CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 14-1

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY..................................................................... 14-1

14.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 14-3

14.3.1 Results for Class A Equipment.......................................................................... 14-4

14.3.2 Impacts Related to Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – TSL 1 . 14-7

14.3.3 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 7 for Class A Equipment................................. 14-8

14.3.4 Results for Class B Equipment .......................................................................... 14-9

14.3.5 Impacts Related to Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – TSL 1 14-12

14.3.6 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 6 for Class B Equipment............................... 14-13

REFERENCE........................................................................................................................... 14-14

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commercial Electricity Consumption, 

Electricity Generation, and Electricity Capacity ............................................... 14-3

Table 14.3.2 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment..... 14-4

Table 14.3.3 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment..... 14-4

Table 14.3.4 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment..... 14-5

Table 14.3.5 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment..... 14-5

Table 14.3.6 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment..... 14-6

Table 14.3.7 TSL 6 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment..... 14-6

Table 14.3.8 TSL 7 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment..... 14-7

Table 14.3.9 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment..... 14-9

Table 14.3.10 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment... 14-10

Table 14.3.11 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment... 14-10

Table 14.3.12 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment... 14-11

Table 14.3.13 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment... 14-11

Table 14.3.14 TSL 6 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment... 14-12

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14-ii 

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CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION 

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) analyzed the effects of amended energy 

conservation standards for beverage vending machines (BVM) on the electric utility industry. 

DOE conducted the utility impact analysis using Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS),a

 which is a public domain, multi-sector, partial 

equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a 

reference energy forecast for the United States, published in the Annual Energy Outlook.

1

 The 

Annual Energy Outlook for 2008 (AEO2008) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030. 

DOE used a variant of this NEMS model, referred to as NEMS-Building Technologies 

(BT),b

 to account for the impact of amended energy conservation standards on the reference 

energy forecast. The NEMS-BT reference case was modeled after AEO2008 reference case.c

 The 

utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the reference case and 

for the policy cases in which amended energy conservation standards are in place.d

 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its use in the analysis of national 

energy conservation standards. The model uses a set of assumptions that are well known and 

fairly transparent because of the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the 

comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy 

supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the 

effects of energy conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to 

estimate marginal effects, which yield a more accurate estimate of the actual impacts of energy 

conservation standards compared to considering only average effects. 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY 

DOE’s utility impact analysis applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2008. 

For example, the operating characteristics (energy conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of 

future electricity generating plants are as specified in the AEO2008 reference case. The utility 

impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation by fuel type that result 

from each trial standard level (TSL) as well as changes in electricity sales to the commercial 

sector. 

 

a

 For more information on NEMS, refer to DOE EIA documentation. A useful summary is National Energy 

Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003), March 2003. More detailed and more current 

documentation of various sub-models within NEMS can be obtained from EIA’s website: 

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html. b

 DOE/EIA approves the use of NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to 

code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy 

scenarios that are variations of DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS-BT (BT is DOE’s 

Buildings Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). 

c

 The NEMS-BT reference case shows very slight differences from the AEO reference case. In 2030, total 

commercial electricity consumption in the NEMS-BT reference case was 0.10 percent lower than the 2008 AEO 

reference case. For total electricity generation and total installed generating capacity, NEMS-BT produced estimates 

that were 0.08 percent and 0.34 percent lower than the AEO reference case, respectively. 

d

 In the discussion below, the abbreviated term “the reference case” should be understood to refer to the NEMS-BT

reference case. 

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EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 46
The utility analysis uses the AEO2008 Reference Case as the base case and treats the 

energy conservation standards on BVM equipment as variations in policy. The effect of the 

policy is calculated as the difference in the reference case and the proposed energy conservation 

standards case. Because the implementation of energy conservation standards for BVM 

equipment reduces the electricity demand by less than one-tenth of 1 percent (in the range of 

0.0009 to 0.02 percent in 2025 for Class A equipment, and 0.0003 to 0.008 percent in 2025 for 

Class B equipment, depending on the TSL) in any given year, its effect is difficult to measure 

adequately in the NEMS simulations. Therefore, larger reductions in demand are modeled, and 

results for the TSLs are interpolated. The effects are assumed to be linear within the range of 

interpolation. 

In its analysis of energy conservation standards for BVM equipment, DOE adjusted the 

annual end-use energy consumption for refrigeration that was predicted within the commercial 

sector module of NEMS-BT. These decrements in the annual consumption were made for each 

census division using the method for computing energy savings developed in the national impact 

analysis (see chapter 11). The changes in annual consumption were translated into changes in 

hourly system load as part of the normal NEMS modeling process using the NEMS’ standard 

commercial building refrigeration shapes. 

As mentioned above, the magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for 

NEMS-BT to produce stable results, outside the range of numerical noise, is larger than the 

highest energy conservation standard under consideration.e

 Therefore, DOE estimated results 

corresponding to the TSL using interpolation. It implemented reductions to both the commercial 

refrigeration end uses at multiples of the proposed standards and linearly interpolated actual 

changes in generation and capacity due to the standard from these outputs. Compared to the total 

savings for Class A BVM equipment under TSL 7, the multipliers used in this analysis were 36, 

54, and 72. In the case of Class B equipment under TSL 6, the multipliers used in this analysis 

were 111, 166, and 221. Appendix K, Estimation of Utility and Environmental Results from 

NEMS-BT Output, provides details of the interpolation method and how the multiples were 

selected. 

The terminal year of the NEMS-BT model is 2030, impacts beyond which are typically 

extrapolated based on the pattern of electricity savings (in kWh) expected for a particular 

standard. The extrapolation was based on a comparison of the change in the NEMS-BT variable 

(e.g., coal-fired generation) to the change in electricity savings over 2025–2030. As a first step to 

implement the method, the changes in electricity savings over three periods—2030 to 2035, 2035 

to 2040, and 2040 to 2042—are usually expressed as ratios to the change in electricity savings 

over 2025–2030. The changes in a utility-sector variable can then be multiplied by these ratios to 

estimate the changes after 2030. However, in the case of BVM equipment in 2025, shipment rate 

is constant and all machines on the market will comply with the standards established in this 

rule. Consequently, the net energy consumption from 2025–2042 is constant; as a result, the 

impact on U.S. electricity generation and installed generation capacity is also constant. 

 

e

 The numerical noise stems, in part, from the fact that a precise balancing between the demand and supply sides of 

NEMS is not always achieved, given the iterative nature of the solution process. 

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14.3 RESULTS 

The results from the reference case are shown in Table 14.3.1. Results for the various 

TSLs for both classes of equipment are presented in Table 14.3.2 through Table 14.3.14. Each 

table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 14.2, for commercial 

sector energy sales, total U.S. electricity generation, and installed capacity. 

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commercial Electricity Consumption, Electricity 

Generation, and Electricity Capacity 

NEMS-BT Results 

 2005* 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption** 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,275 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation† 

Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,056 2,180 2,359 2,573 2,808 

Petroleum (TWh) 122 56 56 60 65 66 

Gas (TWh) 761 912 911 835 773 755 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 910 928 

Renewables (TWh) 372 474 530 601 651 674 

 Total (TWh) 4,050 4,294 4,483 4,723 4,972 5,231 

 

Installed Generating Capacity‡ 

Fossil Steam (GW) 430.9 434.4 416.9 434.8 464.6 494.2 

Combined Cycle (GW) 169.3 190.0 192.2 196.8 205.8 210.6 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 130.3 137.4 129.4 131.4 143.0 164.4 

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.6 116.1 

Renewables (GW) 114.9 133.4 139.8 148.1 155.2 163.3 

 Total (GW) 945.6 996.0 980.4 1,022.0 1,084.2 1,148.4 * Values for 2005 are reported by NEMS-BT, but are very close to the historical values shown in various tables in EIA's 

Annual Energy Review 2006 ** Comparable to panel in Table A8 of AEO 2008, Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions, that displays 

electricity sales by sector 

† Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2008 Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions. Includes generation 

from electricity-only, combined heat and power, and end-use generators 

‡ Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2008: Electricity Generating Capacity. Fossil Steam includes coal steam and other 

fossil fuel steam plants 

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14.3.1 Results for Class A Equipment 

Results for the various TSLs for Class A equipment are presented in Table 14.3.2 through 

Table 14.3.8. 

Table 14.3.2 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0074 -0.0138 -0.0171 -0.0173 -0.0173 -0.0173 -0.0173 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0045 -0.0079 -0.0068 -0.0046 -0.0046 -0.0046 -0.0046 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Gas (TWh) -0.0031 -0.0054 -0.0046 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0035 -0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0037 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0003 -0.0005 -0.0022 -0.0059 -0.0059 -0.0059 -0.0059 

 Total (TWh) -0.0075 -0.0139 -0.0172 -0.0173 -0.0173 -0.0173 -0.0173 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0002 -0.0005 -0.0008 -0.0011 -0.0011 -0.0011 -0.0011 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0007 -0.0007 -0.0007 -0.0007 

Renewables (GW) -0.0001 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 

 Total (GW) -0.0005 -0.0011 -0.0016 -0.0020 -0.0020 -0.0020 -0.0020 

Table 14.3.3 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0328 -0.0613 -0.0760 -0.0769 -0.0769 -0.0769 -0.0769 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0202 -0.0351 -0.0301 -0.0206 -0.0206 -0.0206 -0.0206 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0004 -0.0006 -0.0005 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 

Gas (TWh) -0.0140 -0.0241 -0.0204 -0.0133 -0.0133 -0.0133 -0.0133 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0155 -0.0163 -0.0163 -0.0163 -0.0163 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0014 -0.0020 -0.0098 -0.0264 -0.0264 -0.0264 -0.0264 

 Total (TWh) -0.0331 -0.0618 -0.0763 -0.0767 -0.0767 -0.0767 -0.0767 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0010 -0.0022 -0.0036 -0.0051 -0.0051 -0.0051 -0.0051 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0004 -0.0007 -0.0010 -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0003 0.0009 0.0020 0.0020 0.0020 0.0020 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0004 -0.0010 -0.0019 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 

Renewables (GW) -0.0006 -0.0012 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 

 Total (GW) -0.0023 -0.0049 -0.0071 -0.0089 -0.0089 -0.0089 -0.0089 

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Table 14.3.4 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0738 -0.1380 -0.1711 -0.1729 -0.1729 -0.1729 -0.1729 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0454 -0.0789 -0.0678 -0.0464 -0.0464 -0.0464 -0.0464 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0009 -0.0014 -0.0010 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 

Gas (TWh) -0.0314 -0.0542 -0.0459 -0.0299 -0.0299 -0.0299 -0.0299 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0350 -0.0368 -0.0368 -0.0368 -0.0368 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0032 -0.0045 -0.0221 -0.0593 -0.0593 -0.0593 -0.0593 

 Total (TWh) -0.0746 -0.1391 -0.1718 -0.1725 -0.1725 -0.1725 -0.1725 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0022 -0.0049 -0.0080 -0.0115 -0.0115 -0.0115 -0.0115 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0008 -0.0016 -0.0022 -0.0026 -0.0026 -0.0026 -0.0026 

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0001 0.0006 0.0021 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0009 -0.0024 -0.0043 -0.0068 -0.0068 -0.0068 -0.0068 

Renewables (GW) -0.0012 -0.0027 -0.0035 -0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0037 

 Total (GW) -0.0053 -0.0110 -0.0159 -0.0200 -0.0200 -0.0200 -0.0200 

Table 14.3.5 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.1156 -0.2162 -0.2680 -0.2709 -0.2709 -0.2709 -0.2709 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0712 -0.1237 -0.1062 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0014 -0.0023 -0.0016 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 

Gas (TWh) -0.0492 -0.0849 -0.0719 -0.0468 -0.0468 -0.0468 -0.0468 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0548 -0.0576 -0.0576 -0.0576 -0.0576 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0050 -0.0071 -0.0347 -0.0929 -0.0929 -0.0929 -0.0929 

 Total (TWh) -0.1169 -0.2180 -0.2691 -0.2703 -0.2703 -0.2703 -0.2703 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0034 -0.0077 -0.0125 -0.0180 -0.0180 -0.0180 -0.0180 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0013 -0.0026 -0.0035 -0.0041 -0.0041 -0.0041 -0.0041 

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0001 0.0009 0.0033 0.0072 0.0072 0.0072 0.0072 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0014 -0.0037 -0.0067 -0.0106 -0.0106 -0.0106 -0.0106 

Renewables (GW) -0.0019 -0.0042 -0.0055 -0.0058 -0.0058 -0.0058 -0.0058 

 Total (GW) -0.0082 -0.0173 -0.0250 -0.0313 -0.0313 -0.0313 -0.0313 

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Table 14.3.6 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.1363 -0.2550 -0.3160 -0.3194 -0.3194 -0.3194 -0.3194 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0839 -0.1458 -0.1252 -0.0857 -0.0857 -0.0857 -0.0857 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0016 -0.0027 -0.0019 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 

Gas (TWh) -0.0580 -0.1002 -0.0848 -0.0551 -0.0551 -0.0551 -0.0551 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0646 -0.0679 -0.0679 -0.0679 -0.0679 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0058 -0.0084 -0.0409 -0.1096 -0.1096 -0.1096 -0.1096 

 Total (TWh) -0.1378 -0.2570 -0.3173 -0.3187 -0.3187 -0.3187 -0.3187 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0040 -0.0091 -0.0148 -0.0212 -0.0212 -0.0212 -0.0212 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0016 -0.0030 -0.0041 -0.0048 -0.0048 -0.0048 -0.0048 

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0002 0.0011 0.0039 0.0084 0.0084 0.0084 0.0084 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0017 -0.0044 -0.0079 -0.0125 -0.0125 -0.0125 -0.0125 

Renewables (GW) -0.0023 -0.0049 -0.0065 -0.0068 -0.0068 -0.0068 -0.0068 

 Total (GW) -0.0097 -0.0204 -0.0294 -0.0369 -0.0369 -0.0369 -0.0369 

Table 14.3.7 TSL 6 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.1501 -0.2806 -0.3478 -0.3516 -0.3516 -0.3516 -0.3516 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0924 -0.1605 -0.1378 -0.0943 -0.0943 -0.0943 -0.0943 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0018 -0.0029 -0.0021 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 

Gas (TWh) -0.0639 -0.1102 -0.0933 -0.0607 -0.0607 -0.0607 -0.0607 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0711 -0.0748 -0.0748 -0.0748 -0.0748 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0064 -0.0092 -0.0450 -0.1206 -0.1206 -0.1206 -0.1206 

 Total (TWh) -0.1517 -0.2829 -0.3493 -0.3508 -0.3508 -0.3508 -0.3508 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0044 -0.0100 -0.0163 -0.0233 -0.0233 -0.0233 -0.0233 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0017 -0.0033 -0.0045 -0.0053 -0.0053 -0.0053 -0.0053 

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0002 0.0012 0.0043 0.0093 0.0093 0.0093 0.0093 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0018 -0.0048 -0.0087 -0.0138 -0.0138 -0.0138 -0.0138 

Renewables (GW) -0.0025 -0.0054 -0.0071 -0.0075 -0.0075 -0.0075 -0.0075 

 Total (GW) -0.0107 -0.0224 -0.0324 -0.0406 -0.0406 -0.0406 -0.0406 

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Table 14.3.8 TSL 7 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.1819 -0.3401 -0.4215 -0.4260 -0.4260 -0.4260 -0.4260 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.1120 -0.1945 -0.1670 -0.1143 -0.1143 -0.1143 -0.1143 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0022 -0.0035 -0.0026 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 

Gas (TWh) -0.0774 -0.1336 -0.1131 -0.0736 -0.0736 -0.0736 -0.0736 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0861 -0.0906 -0.0906 -0.0906 -0.0906 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0078 -0.0112 -0.0545 -0.1461 -0.1461 -0.1461 -0.1461 

 Total (TWh) -0.1838 -0.3428 -0.4232 -0.4251 -0.4251 -0.4251 -0.4251 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0053 -0.0121 -0.0197 -0.0283 -0.0283 -0.0283 -0.0283 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0021 -0.0040 -0.0055 -0.0064 -0.0064 -0.0064 -0.0064 

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0002 0.0014 0.0052 0.0113 0.0113 0.0113 0.0113 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0022 -0.0058 -0.0106 -0.0167 -0.0167 -0.0167 -0.0167 

Renewables (GW) -0.0031 -0.0066 -0.0086 -0.0091 -0.0091 -0.0091 -0.0091 

 Total (GW) -0.0129 -0.0272 -0.0393 -0.0492 -0.0492 -0.0492 -0.0492 

14.3.2 Impacts Related to Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – TSL 1 

Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts for all beverage vending machine equipment under 

TSL 1, the level that approximately corresponds to the ENERGY STAR Tier 2 rating. The top 

line of Table 14.3.2 shows that under TSL 1, total commercial electricity use in terawatt hours 

(TWh) declines by 0.0074 TWh in 2015 and by 0.0173 TWh in 2030. 

The reductions in total commercial electricity generation (shown as the last line in the 

second panel of the table) are slightly different than the reductions in commercial electricity use 

(shown in the first line of the table). These differences are to due to the net impact of various 

factors at the energy system level. The NEMS model suggests that electricity prices generally 

decline slightly following the implementation of the standard. These price changes lead to very 

small increases in demand for all major end-use sectors (residential, industrial, and commercialf

). 

An offsetting factor at the system level, however, is that some changes in generation also reflect 

transmission and distribution losses that respond to higher or lower sales to end users. 

As expected, total generation falls in a nearly continuous fashion with respect to the 

lower electricity demand prompted by the energy conservation standard. However, for the 

individual generation technologies by fuel type, the responses are much more varied. In the long 

term (e.g., by 2030), the NEMS-BT model suggests that there may be significant changes, 

compared to the reference case, between plants serving primarily base load uses (principally coal 

 

f

 Specifically, in the NEMS-BT commercial sector model, the response to higher electricity prices is modeled in two 

ways. First, the selection of more efficient equipment is prompted when new buildings are constructed or when 

equipment is replaced in existing buildings. Second, a general behavioral response to higher prices is modeled via a 

price elasticity in which a percentage increase in prices (x) is reflected by a different percentage reduction in 

consumption (y). For most commercial end uses, this price elasticity (y/x) is approximately -0.15. 

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EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 46
and nuclear) and plants using other fuels. The BVM energy conservation standards for class A 

equipment generally reduce base load (and thus off-peak) electricity demand. This change in the 

load profile reduces the attractiveness of coal and, to a lesser extent, nuclear plants. 

In the near term (through 2020), the NEMS-BT model suggests slightly different 

behavior. Electricity generation from natural gas and coal plants is lower than that in the 

reference case. Nuclear generation is relatively unchanged, reflecting the inability of that 

segment of the industry to adjust quickly to changes in demand. In general, because there is less 

opportunity over the next decade (through 2020) to build new plants and optimize the electricity 

supply system to meet the altered character of the load, other institutional and economic factors 

may be more relevant in how various generating facilities are dispatched. 

The bottom panel of results in Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts on generating capacity by 

type of generation technology. Total generation capacity is lower by about 0.002 gigawatts (GW) 

in 2030, roughly a 0.0002 percent decline from the reference case. 

The components of total capacity are distinguished by type of generation technology 

rather than strictly by fuel type. Fossil fuel steam plants are primarily coal fired, but also include 

some petroleum use. High efficiency, combined-cycle plants and combustion turbines both use 

natural gas. 

Because coal plants are primarily used to meet base loads, the capacity of this type of 

plant shows a relatively large decline over the next two decades. Compared to the reference case, 

the total generation capacity of coal plants declines (relative to the reference case) throughout the 

forecast period and is lower by about 0.0011 GW by 2030. Nuclear plants, which are also used to 

meet base loads, are projected to see a capacity decline of 0.0007 GW by the same date. 

As opposed to combined cycle power plant capacity, combustion turbine capacity is 

higher than the reference case. Because the overall load profile shows a higher proportion of 

weather-related electricity consumption, combustion turbine capacity in 2030 is about 0.0005 

GW higher than the reference case. Combined cycle plants witness a decline in capacity of 

0.0003 GW as they tend to be slightly less weather-related than combustion turbines. Generation 

capacity from renewables slightly declines by 0.0004 GWg

. 

14.3.3 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 7 for Class A Equipment 

Table 14.3.3 through Table 14.3.8 show the estimated impacts for TSLs 2 through 7. 

Corresponding to TSL 6, Table 14.3.7 shows the impacts associated with energy conservation 

standards selected to match the maximum energy savings level with a net present value greater 

than zero level for Class A BVM equipment. As shown in this table, compared to the reference 

case, total generation in 2030 would decline by about 0.351 TWh. The major reductions in 

 

g

 Any comparison between the generation and capacity impacts shown in the table is complicated by the fact that 

various types of generating plants operate for different numbers of hours during the year. Base load plants, such as 

fossil fuel steam and nuclear, are relatively comparable as they operate for roughly the same number of hours during 

the year. Because renewables comprise a number of technologies with various operating hours, it is not surprising to 

see a divergence between the behavior of generation and capacity at this aggregate level. 

14-8 

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 46
generation occur at coal, nuclear, gas, and renewable energy facilities. Total generation capacity 

falls by 0.041 GW relative to the reference case or about 0.03 percent. 

In TSL 7, the standards for the Class A BVM equipment are set to the maximum 

(technologically feasible) level. The impacts from this case are shown in Table 14.3.8. In this 

case, the 2030 impact on total generation is approximately 20 percent greater than that of TSL 6, 

or 0.425 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.049 GW, compared to the reference case. 

14.3.4 Results for Class B Equipment 

Results for the various TSLs for Class B Equipment are presented in Table 14.3.9

through Table 14.3.14. 

Table 14.3.9 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0023 -0.0044 -0.0054 -0.0055 -0.0055 -0.0055 -0.0055 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0014 -0.0025 -0.0021 -0.0015 -0.0015 -0.0015 -0.0015 

Petroleum (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Gas (TWh) -0.0010 -0.0017 -0.0014 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0011 -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0007 -0.0019 -0.0019 -0.0019 -0.0019 

 Total (TWh) -0.0024 -0.0044 -0.0054 -0.0054 -0.0054 -0.0054 -0.0054 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 

Combined Cycle (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 

Nuclear (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 

Renewables (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 

 Total (GW) -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0006 -0.0006 -0.0006 

14-9 

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 46
Table 14.3.10 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0035 -0.0065 -0.0081 -0.0082 -0.0082 -0.0082 -0.0082 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0021 -0.0037 -0.0032 -0.0022 -0.0022 -0.0022 -0.0022 

Petroleum (TWh) 0.0000 -0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 

Gas (TWh) -0.0015 -0.0026 -0.0022 -0.0014 -0.0014 -0.0014 -0.0014 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0017 -0.0017 -0.0017 -0.0017 -0.0017 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0010 -0.0028 -0.0028 -0.0028 -0.0028 

 Total (TWh) -0.0035 -0.0066 -0.0081 -0.0082 -0.0082 -0.0082 -0.0082 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 

Combined Cycle (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 

Nuclear (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 

Renewables (GW) -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 

 Total (GW) -0.0002 -0.0005 -0.0008 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 

Table 14.3.11 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0173 -0.0323 -0.0400 -0.0405 -0.0405 -0.0405 -0.0405 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0106 -0.0185 -0.0159 -0.0109 -0.0109 -0.0109 -0.0109 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0002 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 

Gas (TWh) -0.0074 -0.0127 -0.0107 -0.0070 -0.0070 -0.0070 -0.0070 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0082 -0.0086 -0.0086 -0.0086 -0.0086 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0007 -0.0011 -0.0052 -0.0139 -0.0139 -0.0139 -0.0139 

 Total (TWh) -0.0175 -0.0326 -0.0402 -0.0404 -0.0404 -0.0404 -0.0404 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0005 -0.0012 -0.0019 -0.0027 -0.0027 -0.0027 -0.0027 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0006 -0.0006 -0.0006 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0002 -0.0006 -0.0010 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 

Renewables (GW) -0.0003 -0.0006 -0.0008 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 

 Total (GW) -0.0012 -0.0026 -0.0037 -0.0047 -0.0047 -0.0047 -0.0047 

14-10 

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 46
Table 14.3.12 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0198 -0.0370 -0.0458 -0.0463 -0.0463 -0.0463 -0.0463 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0122 -0.0211 -0.0182 -0.0124 -0.0124 -0.0124 -0.0124 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0003 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 

Gas (TWh) -0.0084 -0.0145 -0.0123 -0.0080 -0.0080 -0.0080 -0.0080 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0094 -0.0099 -0.0099 -0.0099 -0.0099 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0008 -0.0012 -0.0059 -0.0159 -0.0159 -0.0159 -0.0159 

 Total (TWh) -0.0200 -0.0373 -0.0460 -0.0462 -0.0462 -0.0462 -0.0462 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0006 -0.0013 -0.0021 -0.0031 -0.0031 -0.0031 -0.0031 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0006 -0.0007 -0.0007 -0.0007 -0.0007 

Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0002 0.0006 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0002 -0.0006 -0.0012 -0.0018 -0.0018 -0.0018 -0.0018 

Renewables (GW) -0.0003 -0.0007 -0.0009 -0.0010 -0.0010 -0.0010 -0.0010 

 Total (GW) -0.0014 -0.0030 -0.0043 -0.0053 -0.0053 -0.0053 -0.0053 

Table 14.3.13 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0534 -0.0999 -0.1238 -0.1251 -0.1251 -0.1251 -0.1251 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0329 -0.0571 -0.0490 -0.0336 -0.0336 -0.0336 -0.0336 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0006 -0.0010 -0.0007 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 

Gas (TWh) -0.0227 -0.0392 -0.0332 -0.0216 -0.0216 -0.0216 -0.0216 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0253 -0.0266 -0.0266 -0.0266 -0.0266 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0023 -0.0033 -0.0160 -0.0429 -0.0429 -0.0429 -0.0429 

 Total (TWh) -0.0540 -0.1007 -0.1243 -0.1248 -0.1248 -0.1248 -0.1248 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0016 -0.0036 -0.0058 -0.0083 -0.0083 -0.0083 -0.0083 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0006 -0.0012 -0.0016 -0.0019 -0.0019 -0.0019 -0.0019 

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0001 0.0004 0.0015 0.0033 0.0033 0.0033 0.0033 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0007 -0.0017 -0.0031 -0.0049 -0.0049 -0.0049 -0.0049 

Renewables (GW) -0.0009 -0.0019 -0.0025 -0.0027 -0.0027 -0.0027 -0.0027 

 Total (GW) -0.0038 -0.0080 -0.0115 -0.0144 -0.0144 -0.0144 -0.0144 

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Table 14.3.14 TSL 6 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case 

Extrapolation 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0594 -0.1111 -0.1377 -0.1392 -0.1392 -0.1392 -0.1392 

 

Total U.S. Electricity Generation 

Coal (TWh) -0.0366 -0.0636 -0.0546 -0.0373 -0.0373 -0.0373 -0.0373 

Petroleum (TWh) -0.0007 -0.0012 -0.0008 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 

Gas (TWh) -0.0253 -0.0437 -0.0370 -0.0240 -0.0240 -0.0240 -0.0240 

Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0281 -0.0296 -0.0296 -0.0296 -0.0296 

Renewables (TWh) 0.0025 -0.0036 -0.0178 -0.0478 -0.0478 -0.0478 -0.0478 

 Total (TWh) -0.0601 -0.1120 -0.1383 -0.1389 -0.1389 -0.1389 -0.1389 

 

Installed Generating Capacity 

Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0017 -0.0040 -0.0064 -0.0092 -0.0092 -0.0092 -0.0092 

Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0007 -0.0013 -0.0018 -0.0021 -0.0021 -0.0021 -0.0021 

Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0001 0.0005 0.0017 0.0037 0.0037 0.0037 0.0037 

Nuclear (GW) -0.0007 -0.0019 -0.0035 -0.0055 -0.0055 -0.0055 -0.0055 

Renewables (GW) -0.0010 -0.0022 -0.0028 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 

 Total (GW) -0.0042 -0.0089 -0.0128 -0.0161 -0.0161 -0.0161 -0.0161 

14.3.5 Impacts Related to Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – TSL 1 

Table 14.3.9 shows the impacts for all commercial refrigeration equipment under TSL 1. 

The top line of Table 14.3.9 shows that under TSL 1, total commercial electricity use declines by 

0.0023 TWh in 2015 and by 0.0055 TWh in 2030. 

As with Class A equipment, the reductions in total commercial electricity generation 

(shown as the last line in the second panel of the table) are slightly different than the reductions 

in commercial electricity use (the first line of the table). As expected, total generation falls in a 

nearly continuous fashion with respect to the lower electricity demand prompted by the energy 

conservation standard. However, for the individual generation technologies by fuel type, the 

responses are much more varied. In the long term (e.g., by 2030), the NEMS-BT model suggests 

that there may be significant changes compared to the reference case between plants serving 

primarily base load uses (principally coal and nuclear) and plants using other fuels. The BVM 

energy conservation standards for Class B equipment generally reduce base load (and thus offpeak) electricity demand. This change in the load profile reduces the attractiveness of coal and 

nuclear plants. 

In the near term (through 2020), the NEMS-BT model suggests slightly different 

behavior. Electricity generation from natural gas plants is somewhat lower than that in the 

reference case. Nuclear generation is relatively unchanged, reflecting the inability of that 

segment of the industry to adjust quickly to changes in demand. In general, because there is less 

opportunity over the next decade (through 2020) to build new plants and optimize the electricity 

supply system to meet the altered character of the load, other institutional and economic factors 

may be more relevant in how various generating facilities are dispatched. 

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EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 46
The bottom panel of results in Table 14.3.9 shows the impacts on generating capacity by 

type of generation technology. Total generation capacity is lower by about 0.0006 GW in 2030, 

roughly a 0.00005 percent decline from the reference case. 

The components of total capacity are distinguished by type of generation technology 

rather than strictly by fuel type. Fossil fuel steam plants are primarily coal fired but also include 

some petroleum use. High efficiency, combined-cycle plants and combustion turbines both use 

natural gas. 

Because coal plants are primarily used to meet base loads, the capacity of this type of 

plant shows a relatively large decline over the next two decades. Compared to the reference case, 

the total generation capacity of coal plants declines (relative to the reference case) throughout the 

forecast period and is lower by about 0.0004 GW by 2030. Nuclear plants, which are also used to 

meet base loads, are projected to see a capacity decline of 0.0002 GW by the same date. 

As opposed to combined cycle power plant capacity, combustion turbine capacity is 

higher than the reference case. Because the overall load profile shows a higher proportion of 

weather-related electricity consumption, combustion turbine capacity in 2030 is about 

0.0001 GW higher than the reference case. Combined cycle plants witness a decline in capacity 

of 0.0001 GW, as they tend to be slightly less weather-related than combustion turbines. 

Generation capacity from renewables slightly declines by 0.0001 GW.h

 

14.3.6 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 6 for Class B Equipment 

Table 14.3.10 through Table 14.3.14 show the estimated impacts for TSLs 2–6. 

Corresponding to TSL 4, Table 14.3.12 shows the impacts associated with energy conservation 

standards selected to maximize energy savings while maintaining a net-present value that is 

nearly zero for the Class B BVM equipment. As shown in this table, compared to the reference 

case, total generation in 2030 would decline by about 0.046 TWh. The major reductions in 

generation occur at coal, nuclear, gas, and renewable energy facilities. Total generation capacity 

falls by 0.0053 GW relative to the reference case or about 0.0005 percent. 

Table 14.3.13 shows impacts under TSL 5 for all Class B BVM products considered in 

this rulemaking. TSL 5 corresponds to an intermediate energy efficiency level. In this 

intermediate case, the 2030 impact on total generation is more than twice than that for TSL 4, or 

0.125 TWh. Total capacity is lower about 0.014 GW compared to the reference case. The cause 

of this distinctly larger impact is because implementation of LED lighting at this TSL level 

significantly increases projected savings. 

In TSL 6, the standards for the Class B BVM equipment set to the maximum 

(technologically feasible) level. The impacts from this case are shown in Table 14.3.14. In this 

case, the 2030 impact on total generation is approximately 10 percent greater than that of TSL 5, 

or 0.140 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.016 GW compared to the reference case. 

 

h

 Any comparison between the generation and capacity impacts shown in the table is complicated by the fact that 

various types of generating plants operate for different numbers of hours during the year. Base load plants, such as 

fossil fuel steam and nuclear, are relatively comparable as they operate for roughly the same number of hours during 

the year. Because renewables comprise a number of technologies with various operating hours, it is not surprising to 

see a divergence between the behavior of generation and capacity at this aggregate level. 

14-13 

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 46
14-14 

REFERENCE 

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2008. June 2008. Washington, D.C. DOE/EIA-0383(2008). 

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 46