FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

THURSDAY, JANUARY 29, 2009, AT 8:30 A.M. EST 

Chris Savage or Jessica Young 

Manufacturing and Construction Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (08)-12 

CB09-17

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

December 2008 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in 

December decreased $4.7 billion or 2.6 percent to 

$176.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced 

today. This was the fifth consecutive monthly decrease 

and followed a 3.7 percent November decrease. 

Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.6 

percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.9 

percent. 

 

 Computers and electronic products, down three of the 

last four months, had the largest decrease, $1.9 billion or 

7.2 percent to $24.9 billion. 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in 

December, down five consecutive months, decreased 

$1.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $191.3 billion. This 

followed a 4.2 percent November decrease. 

 Primary metals, down five consecutive months, had 

the largest decrease, $1.3 billion or 7.4 percent to $16.7 

billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

December, down three consecutive months, decreased 

$10.3 billion or 1.3 percent to $803.2 billion. This 

followed a 0.9 percent November decrease. 

 Machinery, down three consecutive months, had the 

largest decrease, $3.7 billion or 3.6 percent to $100.7 

billion. 

Inventories 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in 

December, up seventeen of the last eighteen months, 

increased $1.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $343.5 billion. 

This was at the highest level since the series was first 

stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.3 

percent November increase. 

 Transportation equipment, up twenty-three of the last 

twenty-four months, had the largest increase, $2.7 billion 

or 2.9 percent to $95.4 billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in December 

decreased $3.6 billion or 5.9 percent to $57.0 billion. 

Shipments increased $2.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $65.2 

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $8.2 billion or 1.7 

percent to $470.2 billion. Inventories increased $3.8 

billion or 2.6 percent to $147.5 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in December 

increased $2.8 billion or 32.9 percent to $11.3 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 5.9 percent to $8.5 

billion. Unfilled orders increased $2.8 billion or 2.0 

percent to $143.8 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 

billion or 0.5 percent to $19.6 billion. 

Revised November Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $379.8 

billion (revised from $384.6 billion); shipments, $391.0 

billion (revised from $393.8 billion); unfilled orders, 

$813.4 billion (revised from $815.4 billion); and total 

inventories, $552.6 billion (revised from $553.4 billion). 

Figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor 

manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>.

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on February 5, 2009, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The

advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled for release on February 26, 2009, at 8:30 a.m. EST. See back page for

survey description and 2009 release dates. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Dec Nov Oct Nov - Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec Change

2008 2 2008 r 2008 Dec 2 Nov r Oct 2008 2 2008 r 2007 2008 2007 08/07

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 191,258 192,700 201,119 -0.7 -4.2 -3.4 189,988 181,442 208,047 2,494,091 2,562,863 -2.7

 New Orders4

.............................. 176,797 181,509 188,534 -2.6 -3.7 -8.5 187,861 169,134 233,900 2,464,050 2,612,952 -5.7

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 144,685 146,744 153,046 -1.4 -4.1 -2.8 142,757 137,089 154,007 1,875,172 1,869,827 0.3

 New Orders4

.............................. 133,464 138,417 140,762 -3.6 -1.7 -6.9 131,090 127,650 154,208 1,814,336 1,831,560 -0.9

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 179,823 180,914 189,021 -0.6 -4.3 -3.6 177,206 169,281 197,170 2,353,927 2,448,855 -3.9

 New Orders4

.............................. 162,095 170,371 177,336 -4.9 -3.9 -6.8 166,844 158,478 214,905 2,313,699 2,494,284 -7.2

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 138,045 138,469 144,247 -0.3 -4.0 -4.2 137,885 130,496 147,853 1,789,801 1,787,073 0.2

 New Orders4

.............................. 127,793 131,209 136,694 -2.6 -4.0 -10.2 139,718 121,724 178,266 1,817,721 1,901,011 -4.4

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 16,659 17,989 19,843 -7.4 -9.3 -10.9 14,087 15,999 17,540 255,838 241,511 5.9

 New Orders.............................. 14,882 15,979 16,834 -6.9 -5.1 -16.3 12,600 14,246 18,593 247,047 241,829 2.2

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 26,099 26,991 27,563 -3.3 -2.1 -1.0 23,816 24,998 24,115 330,578 326,685 1.2

 New Orders.............................. 25,120 26,048 26,667 -3.6 -2.3 -2.9 22,561 23,153 25,230 327,745 330,855 -0.9

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 29,063 28,356 28,461 2.5 -0.4 -5.5 28,448 25,496 28,503 347,363 331,451 4.8

 New Orders.............................. 25,350 26,691 27,206 -5.0 -1.9 -11.2 24,049 24,010 30,643 355,655 343,454 3.6

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 29,472 29,491 31,260 -0.1 -5.7 2.2 34,519 28,409 38,130 379,309 386,897 -2.0

 New Orders4

.............................. 24,865 26,797 25,627 -7.2 4.6 -4.9 31,229 25,369 35,222 324,428 330,062 -1.7

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 4,545 4,228 4,626 7.5 -8.6 -1.6 6,093 3,792 7,452 59,601 65,627 -9.2

 New Orders.............................. 4,634 4,775 4,292 -3.0 11.3 -9.1 6,182 4,339 7,606 60,110 65,859 -8.7 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 5,411 5,720 5,458 -5.4 4.8 -3.4 6,972 5,869 7,499 68,563 68,504 0.1

 New Orders.............................. 5,482 5,764 5,699 -4.9 1.1 8.1 7,071 5,397 7,858 69,339 69,871 -0.8

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 4,209 3,931 5,032 7.1 -21.9 29.0 3,960 3,536 4,560 57,961 63,849 -9.2

 New Orders4

.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 9,577 9,436 10,330 1.5 -8.7 -1.9 9,098 8,959 10,119 125,001 126,995 -1.6

 New Orders.............................. 9,519 8,698 9,155 9.4 -5.0 -10.2 8,592 8,026 9,711 123,713 128,209 -3.5

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 46,573 45,956 48,073 1.3 -4.4 -5.4 47,231 44,353 54,040 618,919 693,036 -10.7

 New Orders.............................. 43,333 43,092 47,772 0.6 -9.8 -12.8 56,771 41,484 79,692 649,714 781,392 -16.9

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 27,755 29,066 29,519 -4.5 -1.5 -5.2 25,229 27,215 33,202 387,129 479,703 -19.3

 New Orders.............................. 27,104 28,603 29,214 -5.2 -2.1 -5.2 24,928 26,917 33,489 384,166 477,835 -19.6 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 8,043 6,134 6,861 31.1 -10.6 -10.8 9,946 6,164 10,181 96,513 101,127 -4.6

 New Orders.............................. 2,728 4,839 9,003 -43.6 -46.3 -8.7 13,490 5,347 28,458 124,010 184,484 -32.8

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 4,840 4,539 4,757 6.6 -4.6 -8.5 5,753 4,726 3,938 55,775 39,700 40.5

 New Orders.............................. 5,800 4,982 5,356 16.4 -7.0 -8.3 7,961 5,087 8,079 60,710 40,855 48.6

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 33,815 34,481 35,589 -1.9 -3.1 -1.4 32,789 33,228 35,600 437,083 456,288 -4.2

 New Orders.............................. 33,728 34,204 35,273 -1.4 -3.0 -1.6 32,059 32,846 34,809 435,748 457,151 -4.7

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 73,711 72,105 73,765 2.2 -2.3 -3.9 79,632 68,269 82,300 907,377 889,599 2.0

 New Orders.............................. 68,300 69,052 71,326 -1.1 -3.2 -10.9 86,213 64,700 108,064 946,694 988,684 -4.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 65,224 63,084 64,469 3.4 -2.1 -4.5 70,574 58,923 73,755 800,087 796,439 0.5

 New Orders.............................. 56,983 60,535 63,487 -5.9 -4.6 -6.5 69,598 56,749 91,579 831,451 891,459 -6.7

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 60,880 60,354 61,218 0.9 -1.4 -3.7 64,623 56,167 67,794 748,796 739,632 1.2

 New Orders.......................... 57,730 59,390 58,373 -2.8 1.7 -6.7 60,248 54,628 68,869 755,103 755,394 0.0

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,487 9,021 9,296 -5.9 -3.0 1.0 9,058 9,346 8,545 107,290 93,160 15.2

 New Orders.............................. 11,317 8,517 7,839 32.9 8.6 -35.4 16,615 7,951 16,485 115,243 97,225 18.5

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-3(07), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 2004-2007."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Dec Nov Oct Nov - Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec 2008/

2008 2 2008 r 2008 Dec 2 Nov r Oct 2008 2 2008 r 2007 2007

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 803,160 813,412 820,672 -1.3 -0.9 -0.9 799,736 797,903 771,816 3.6

 Total Inventories....................... 343,465 342,179 341,168 0.4 0.3 0.4 333,438 343,121 311,601 7.0

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 339,157 346,169 350,565 -2.0 -1.3 -2.0 332,146 339,853 335,021 -0.9

 Total Inventories....................... 248,084 249,479 251,032 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 242,088 249,728 233,424 3.7

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 642,125 655,644 662,256 -2.1 -1.0 -1.0 638,240 644,642 620,507 2.9

 Total Inventories....................... 318,191 316,975 316,396 0.4 0.2 0.3 308,536 317,900 288,346 7.0

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 803,160 813,412 820,672 -1.3 -0.9 -0.9 799,736 797,903 771,816 3.6

 Total Inventories....................... 275,867 274,491 273,466 0.5 0.4 0.3 267,827 275,298 247,138 8.4

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 19,416 21,193 23,203 -8.4 -8.7 -11.5 18,472 19,959 27,263 -32.2

 Total Inventories....................... 32,363 33,715 34,793 -4.0 -3.1 -1.1 32,123 33,665 30,577 5.1

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 58,738 59,717 60,660 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 56,586 57,841 59,419 -4.8

 Total Inventories....................... 43,694 44,384 44,726 -1.6 -0.8 -0.5 42,699 43,861 41,384 3.2

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 100,692 104,405 106,070 -3.6 -1.6 -1.2 98,679 103,078 90,387 9.2

 Total Inventories....................... 55,278 55,168 54,869 0.2 0.5 0.4 53,481 55,507 50,487 5.9

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 125,399 125,797 124,560 -0.3 1.0 -0.5 124,847 124,177 121,767 2.5

 Total Inventories....................... 48,001 47,383 47,419 1.3 -0.1 0.8 46,650 48,166 43,788 6.5

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 4,226 4,137 3,590 2.2 15.2 -8.5 4,226 4,137 3,717 13.7

 Total Inventories....................... 5,255 4,938 4,853 6.4 1.8 -3.7 4,924 5,143 4,706 4.6

 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 37,745 37,674 37,630 0.2 0.1 0.6 37,193 37,094 36,417 2.1

 Total Inventories....................... 10,339 9,853 9,806 4.9 0.5 1.6 10,217 10,217 9,218 10.8

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 22,635 22,693 23,431 -0.3 -3.1 -4.8 21,776 22,282 23,064 -5.6

 Total Inventories....................... 14,913 14,937 15,172 -0.2 -1.5 -1.3 14,419 14,789 14,391 0.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 464,003 467,243 470,107 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 467,590 458,050 436,795 7.1

 Total Inventories....................... 95,381 92,700 90,136 2.9 2.8 1.8 91,350 93,393 78,177 16.9

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,623 16,274 16,737 -4.0 -2.8 -1.8 15,602 15,903 18,565 -16.0

 Total Inventories....................... 21,742 22,369 22,837 -2.8 -2.0 -0.3 20,535 22,396 23,357 -12.1 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 304,639 309,954 311,249 -1.7 -0.4 0.7 308,112 304,568 280,615 9.8

 Total Inventories....................... 47,679 44,281 41,947 7.7 5.6 3.4 45,546 44,871 31,154 46.2

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 48,472 47,512 47,069 2.0 0.9 1.3 48,237 46,029 43,302 11.4

 Total Inventories....................... 14,592 14,718 14,292 -0.9 3.0 2.4 14,373 14,724 13,213 8.8

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,277 12,364 12,641 -0.7 -2.2 -2.4 11,786 12,516 13,121 -10.2

 Total Inventories....................... 53,835 53,892 54,053 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 52,716 53,740 52,797 -0.2

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 614,002 619,413 622,466 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 614,774 608,193 575,457 6.8

 Total Inventories....................... 167,114 163,214 161,112 2.4 1.3 1.2 161,995 164,868 142,487 13.7

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 470,178 478,419 480,968 -1.7 -0.5 -0.2 470,179 471,155 438,815 7.1

 Total Inventories....................... 147,473 143,678 141,864 2.6 1.3 1.1 142,507 145,321 124,001 14.9

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 198,918 202,068 203,032 -1.6 -0.5 -1.4 195,091 199,466 188,784 3.3

 Total Inventories................... 109,746 108,893 108,972 0.8 -0.1 0.3 106,504 110,051 100,652 5.8

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 143,824 140,994 141,498 2.0 -0.4 -1.0 144,595 137,038 136,642 5.8

 Total Inventories....................... 19,641 19,536 19,248 0.5 1.5 2.0 19,488 19,547 18,486 5.4

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4 

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations), 

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value), and 

inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-in-process, and finished goods). The M3 includes 

approximately 4,300 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous 

companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89 

categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-tomonth changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-tomonth movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the survey show 

that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 61 percent of the shipments estimates at the total 

manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is based on a 

voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,300 reporting units and provide an 

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a 

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,300 companies would 

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a 

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore, 

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are 

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for 

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full report. 

Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made 

later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. 

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.

2009 Release Dates for M3 Survey 

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M. 

November 2008 Dec. 24, 2008 Jan. 6, 2009 

December 2008 Jan. 29, 2009 Feb. 5, 2009 

January 2009 Feb. 26, 2009 Mar. 5, 2009 

February 2009 Mar. 25, 2009 Apr. 2, 2009 

March 2009 Apr. 24, 2009 May 1, 2009 

April 2009 May 28, 2009 Jun. 3, 2009 

May 2009 Jun. 24, 2009 Jul. 2, 2009 

June 2009 Jul. 29, 2009 Aug. 5, 2009 

July 2009 Aug. 26, 2009 Sep. 2, 2009 

August 2009 Sep. 25, 2009 Oct. 2, 2009 

September 2009 Oct. 28, 2009 Nov. 3, 2009 

October 2009 Nov. 25, 2009 Dec. 4, 2009 

November 2009 Dec. 24, 2009