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FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13, 2019

MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES AND

ORDERS JANUARY 2019

Release Number: CB 19‐27 M3‐1 (19)‐01

March 13, 2019 — The U.S. Census Bureau announces the January advance report on manufacturers’

shipments, inventories and orders:

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $255.3

billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This increase, up three consecutive months, followed a

1.3 percent December increase.  Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent.  Excluding

defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent.  Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months,

drove the increase, $1.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $90.9 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, down following two consecutive monthly increases,

decreased $1.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $257.9 billion.  This followed a 0.7 percent December increase.  

Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease,

$1.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $90.0 billion.

DURABLE GOODS – NEW ORDERS

JANUARY 2019 $255.3 billion             +0.4%°   

DECEMBER 2018  

(revised) $254.4 billion             +1.3%°

Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes.

°Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey.  The Manufacturers' Shipments,

Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so the sampling

error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the confidence intervals be computed.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, March 13,

2019.

Feb‐18 Mar‐18 Apr‐18 May‐18 Jun‐18 Jul‐18 Aug‐18 Sep‐18 Oct‐18 Nov‐18 Dec‐18 Jan‐19

% Change 4.5% 2.7% ‐1.0% ‐0.3% 0.9% ‐1.2% 4.7% 0.0% ‐4.3% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4%

‐8.0%

‐7.0%

‐6.0%

‐5.0%

‐4.0%

‐3.0%

‐2.0%

‐1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2018‐2019

Seasonally Adjusted,   Month‐To‐Month Percentage Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders,

March 13, 2019.
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Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following three consecutive monthly

decreases, increased $1.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,181.9 billion.  This followed a 0.1 percent December

decrease.  Transportation equipment, also up following three consecutive monthly decreases, led the

increase, $0.9 billion or 0.1 percent to $811.6 billion.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, up twenty‐four of the last twenty‐five months,

increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $417.0 billion.  This followed a 0.3 percent December increase.  

Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $1.2 billion or 0.9 percent to

$132.6 billion.   

Capital Goods

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in January increased $2.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $80.3 billion.  

Shipments decreased $1.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $78.4 billion.  Unfilled orders increased $1.9 billion or

0.3 percent to $711.0 billion.  Inventories increased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $182.8 billion.  Defense

new orders for capital goods in January decreased $0.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $12.5 billion.  Shipments

increased $0.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $13.0 billion.  Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent

to $156.0 billion.  Inventories increased $0.4 billion or 1.6 percent to $23.0 billion.

Revised December Data

Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $500.1

billion (revised from $499.9 billion); shipments, $504.9 billion (unchanged); unfilled orders, $1,180.5 billion

(revised from $1,180.3 billion) and total inventories, $681.8 billion (revised from $681.5 billion).

The U.S. Census Bureau updated its 2019 economic indicator release calendar to include January‐March

2019 releases following the recent lapse in federal funding.  Please refer to <www.census.gov/economic‐

indicators> for the latest information on the rescheduled release dates.

EXPLANATORY NOTES

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation.  Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.  

“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or

decrease.
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Description of the survey  

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories,

and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.  This

survey provides statistics on a calendar‐month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders

(net of cancellations), end‐of‐month order backlog (unfilled orders), end‐of‐month total inventory (at

current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work‐in‐

process, and finished goods).  Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately

5,000 reporting units that represent approximately 3,100 companies and provide an indication of month‐

to‐month change for the Manufacturing Sector.  These reporting units may be divisions of diversified large

companies, large homogenous companies, or single‐unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, which

are combined into 65 publication levels due to the small monthly panel size.  The survey methodology

assumes that the month‐to‐month changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the M3 panel

effectively represent the month‐to‐month movements of all establishments that make up the category.  

The companies for which shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent

approximately 64 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012

Economic Census, and these companies include almost two‐thirds of the manufacturing companies with

$500 million or more in shipments in the 2012 Economic Census.  The companies for which shipments data

are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 57 percent of the total value of

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 Economic Census.  Statistics based on the M3

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing

companies.  The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are

normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured.  Nonsampling errors are attributable to many

sources.  The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is

one source of nonsampling error.  The use of primarily large companies to represent the month‐to‐month

movement of all companies is another potential source.  Any corrections will be published in the full

report.  Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report.  Any

revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication.  Additional

survey documentation can be found on our web site:  

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.
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RESOURCES

API

The Census Bureau’s application programming interface (API) lets developers create custom apps to reach

new users and makes key demographic, socio‐economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever

before.

<www.census.gov/developers/>

NEW TIME SERIES

Beginning with the release of June 2018 data on July 26, 2018, historical estimates of the Monthly Advance

Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders are available on a seasonally adjusted basis

as well as a not seasonally adjusted basis at: <https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/>.   

FRED Mobile App

Receive the latest updates on the nation’s key economic indicators by downloading

the FRED App <https://fred.stlouisfed.org/fred‐mobile/> for both Apple and

Android devices.  FRED, the signature database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St.

Louis, now incorporates the Census Bureau’s 13 economic indicators.

Notice of Revisions and Changes Due to Updated Seasonal Adjustment Models

On May 16, 2019, monthly seasonally adjusted data for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and

Orders, based on the North American Industry Classification System, will be revised for January 2002

through March 2019.  There will be no accompanying press release containing revised seasonally adjusted

data for January through March of 2019, and historical data not seasonally adjusted will be unchanged.   

These revisions to the historical seasonally adjusted data will be based on the results of the recent annual

review of the seasonal adjustment models.  Based on this review, the lists of series that are seasonally

adjusted and not seasonally adjusted will be updated.  Three unfilled orders series and one total

inventories series that have been adjusted will no longer be seasonally adjusted.  Conversely, two stage of

fabrication series that have not been adjusted will now be seasonally adjusted.  These changes will be

implemented on May 16, 2019 and will also be used to produce seasonally adjusted data from the

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey, beginning with the April 2019 Advance Report

on Durable Goods scheduled for release on May 24, 2019 and the full report scheduled for release on June

4, 2019.

###
Table 1.  Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item           Percent

Jan Dec Nov Dec ‐ Nov ‐ Oct ‐ Jan Dec Jan Change

2019 2 2018 r 2018 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2019 2 2018 r 2018 2019 2018 2019/2018

DURABLE GOODS

   Total:               

               Shipments................................ 257,892 259,149 257,418 ‐0.5 0.7 1.0 233,351 252,875 220,350 233,351 220,350 5.9

               New Orders4

.............................. 255,273 254,381 251,197 0.4 1.3 0.9 230,967 256,933 214,186 230,967 214,186 7.8

         Excluding transportation:

               Shipments................................ 167,921 167,884 167,539 0.0 0.2 0.2 154,041 163,523 148,132 154,041 148,132 4.0

               New Orders4

.............................. 164,386 164,531 164,049 ‐0.1 0.3 ‐0.2 153,370 158,817 147,938 153,370 147,938 3.7

         Excluding defense:

               Shipments................................ 242,755 244,794 243,499 ‐0.8 0.5 1.1 220,919 236,705 209,407 220,919 209,407 5.5

               New Orders4

.............................. 241,513 239,878 234,677 0.7 2.2 ‐0.1 220,667 237,578 206,128 220,667 206,128 7.1

    Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

               Shipments................................ 179,990 180,307 179,492 ‐0.2 0.5 1.4 162,035 179,753 152,274 162,035 152,274 6.4

               New Orders.............................. 181,370 179,596 177,404 1.0 1.2 1.4 164,403 187,522 150,987 164,403 150,987 8.9

    Primary metals:

               Shipments................................ 21,375 21,531 21,852 ‐0.7 ‐1.5 0.9 21,138 19,037 19,713 21,138 19,713 7.2

               New Orders.............................. 21,447 21,777 21,778 ‐1.5 0.0 1.7 21,288 19,618 20,226 21,288 20,226 5.3

    Fabricated metal products:

               Shipments................................ 33,963 33,826 33,411 0.4 1.2 0.9 31,934 30,853 29,939 31,934 29,939 6.7

               New Orders.............................. 34,472 34,477 33,961 0.0 1.5 1.8 33,380 30,623 31,299 33,380 31,299 6.6

    Machinery:

               Shipments................................ 33,132 32,926 32,928 0.6 0.0 ‐0.3 29,692 33,081 28,540 29,692 28,540 4.0

               New Orders.............................. 32,995 32,555 32,760 1.4 ‐0.6 ‐2.0 31,364 31,666 30,541 31,364 30,541 2.7

    Computers and electronic products 4

:

               Shipments................................ 27,732 27,711 27,688 0.1 0.1 1.1 24,720 31,483 23,780 24,720 23,780 4.0

               New Orders.............................. 23,716 24,040 24,138 ‐1.3 ‐0.4 0.1 20,225 28,810 19,357 20,225 19,357 4.5

         Computers and related products:

               Shipments................................ 1,863 1,764 1,863 5.6 ‐5.3 ‐2.9 1,496 2,337 1,469 1,496 1,469 1.8

               New Orders.............................. 1,902 1,768 1,922 7.6 ‐8.0 ‐1.3 1,535 2,341 1,476 1,535 1,476 4.0

         Communications equipment:

               Shipments................................ 3,750 3,750 3,662 0.0 2.4 1.6 2,952 4,979 2,699 2,952 2,699 9.4

               New Orders.............................. 3,705 3,568 3,755 3.8 ‐5.0 ‐0.9 2,917 4,734 2,835 2,917 2,835 2.9

    Electrical equipment, appliances,    

       and components:                   

               Shipments................................ 11,458 11,454 11,397 0.0 0.5 ‐1.0 10,324 11,067 9,851 10,324 9,851 4.8

               New Orders.............................. 11,437 11,242 11,269 1.7 ‐0.2 ‐2.6 10,757 10,800 10,059 10,757 10,059 6.9

    Transportation equipment:    

               Shipments................................ 89,971 91,265 89,879 ‐1.4 1.5 2.5 79,310 89,352 72,218 79,310 72,218 9.8

               New Orders.............................. 90,887 89,850 87,148 1.2 3.1 3.1 77,597 98,116 66,248 77,597 66,248 17.1

         Motor vehicles and parts:

               Shipments................................ 61,287 62,105 60,872 ‐1.3 2.0 0.2 56,577 55,041 51,938 56,577 51,938 8.9

               New Orders.............................. 61,502 62,114 60,903 ‐1.0 2.0 0.1 56,700 55,984 51,773 56,700 51,773 9.5

         Nondefense aircraft and parts:

               Shipments................................ 13,443 14,968 15,034 ‐10.2 ‐0.4 17.3 10,320 18,979 9,626 10,320 9,626 7.2

               New Orders.............................. 15,690 13,534 9,973 15.9 35.7 4.5 10,701 24,166 6,646 10,701 6,646 61.0

         Defense aircraft and parts:

               Shipments................................ 5,249 4,716 4,507 11.3 4.6 ‐4.8 4,037 5,576 3,388 4,037 3,388 19.2

               New Orders.............................. 4,641 4,442 6,682 4.5 ‐33.5 29.0 3,946 6,529 2,739 3,946 2,739 44.1

    All other durable goods:           

               Shipments................................ 40,261 40,436 40,263 ‐0.4 0.4 ‐0.8 36,233 38,002 36,309 36,233 36,309 ‐0.2

               New Orders.............................. 40,319 40,440 40,143 ‐0.3 0.7 ‐1.0 36,356 37,300 36,456 36,356 36,456 ‐0.3

    Capital goods3

:

               Shipments................................ 91,350 92,184 91,546 ‐0.9 0.7 2.0 78,597 101,300 74,285 78,597 74,285 5.8

               New Orders.............................. 92,826 91,151 89,263 1.8 2.1 2.8 79,675 107,419 70,991 79,675 70,991 12.2

           Nondefense capital goods:

               Shipments................................ 78,364 79,624 79,557 ‐1.6 0.1 2.4 67,930 87,379 65,020 67,930 65,020 4.5

               New Orders.............................. 80,311 78,336 75,002 2.5 4.4 0.2 69,765 90,416 64,349 69,765 64,349 8.4

                Excluding aircraft:

                    Shipments........................... 69,456 68,918 68,865 0.8 0.1 ‐0.2 61,979 72,889 59,454 61,979 59,454 4.2

                    New Orders.......................... 68,804 68,275 68,895 0.8 ‐0.9 ‐1.1 63,412 70,790 61,498 63,412 61,498 3.1

           Defense capital goods:

               Shipments................................ 12,986 12,560 11,989 3.4 4.8 ‐0.8 10,667 13,921 9,265 10,667 9,265 15.1

               New Orders.............................. 12,515 12,815 14,261 ‐2.3 ‐10.1 18.7 9,910 17,003 6,642 9,910 6,642 49.2

r Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.     

1

Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of    

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non‐calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading‐day differences, where appropriate,  

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.         2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage, response and

nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.      3 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, and other machinery; photographic

equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer

peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and  control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft;

railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and

boats, and search and navigation equipment.    4 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals.  Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled

orders exclude semiconductor industry data.   

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, January Advance Report, March 13, 2019. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website at

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.  
Table 2.  Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments,  Inventories,  and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item           Change

Jan Dec Nov Dec ‐ Nov ‐ Oct ‐ Jan Dec Jan 2019/

2019 2 2018 r 2018 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2019 2 2018 r 2018 2018

DURABLE GOODS

   Total:                   

               Unfilled Orders 4......................... 1,181,865 1,180,485 1,181,196 0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 1,181,994 1,179,626 1,135,125 4.1

               Total Inventories....................... 417,031 415,316 414,011 0.4 0.3 0.5 416,745 404,929 397,366 4.9

         Excluding transportation:

               Unfilled Orders 4......................... 370,242 369,778 369,074 0.1 0.2 0.2 367,110 363,029 351,256 4.5

               Total Inventories....................... 284,433 283,944 282,586 0.2 0.5 0.6 284,073 277,145 269,205 5.5

         Excluding defense:

               Unfilled Orders 4

........................... 984,556 981,799 982,658 0.3 ‐0.1 ‐0.5 983,785 979,285 957,829 2.7

               Total Inventories....................... 389,639 388,310 386,767 0.3 0.4 0.5 389,492 378,091 370,700 5.1

    Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 1,181,865 1,180,485 1,181,196 0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 1,181,994 1,179,626 1,135,125 4.1

               Total Inventories....................... 339,603 338,306 336,924 0.4 0.4 0.4 338,652 329,663 322,695 4.9

    Primary metals:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 31,662 31,590 31,344 0.2 0.8 ‐0.2 31,248 31,098 28,391 10.1

               Total Inventories....................... 36,537 36,575 36,273 ‐0.1 0.8 1.3 36,582 36,375 33,671 8.6

    Fabricated metal products:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 86,649 86,140 85,489 0.6 0.8 0.6 85,022 83,576 78,734 8.0

               Total Inventories....................... 54,686 54,651 54,559 0.1 0.2 0.5 54,620 53,770 50,897 7.3

    Machinery:     

               Unfilled Orders......................... 105,413 105,550 105,921 ‐0.1 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 105,398 103,726 103,338 2.0

               Total Inventories....................... 70,884 70,510 70,082 0.5 0.6 0.4 70,663 68,141 66,642 6.0

    Computers and electronic products4

:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 117,630 117,647 117,261 0.0 0.3 0.5 117,326 117,069 112,924 3.9

               Total Inventories....................... 43,184 43,294 43,303 ‐0.3 0.0 0.4 42,711 41,725 42,428 0.7

         Computers and related products:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 2,234 2,195 2,191 1.8 0.2 2.8 2,234 2,195 1,885 18.5

               Total Inventories....................... 3,690 3,772 3,737 ‐2.2 0.9 2.2 3,660 3,534 3,706 ‐1.2

         Communications equipment:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 26,384 26,429 26,611 ‐0.2 ‐0.7 0.4 26,092 26,127 25,195 3.6

               Total Inventories....................... 5,421 5,378 5,427 0.8 ‐0.9 ‐0.1 5,354 5,131 5,234 2.3

    Electrical equipment, appliances,    

        and components:                   

               Unfilled Orders......................... 19,478 19,499 19,711 ‐0.1 ‐1.1 ‐0.6 19,401 18,968 19,240 0.8

               Total Inventories....................... 19,787 19,662 19,460 0.6 1.0 1.0 19,757 18,802 18,160 8.8

    Transportation equipment:    

               Unfilled Orders......................... 811,623 810,707 812,122 0.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.3 814,884 816,597 783,869 4.0

               Total Inventories....................... 132,598 131,372 131,425 0.9 0.0 0.2 132,672 127,784 128,161 3.5

         Motor vehicles and parts:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 27,265 27,050 27,041 0.8 0.0 0.1 27,335 27,212 26,342 3.8

               Total Inventories....................... 37,365 36,934 36,996 1.2 ‐0.2 1.0 37,896 35,762 35,870 5.6

         Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 596,454 594,207 595,641 0.4 ‐0.2 ‐0.8 598,569 598,188 590,130 1.4

               Total Inventories....................... 66,841 66,493 66,385 0.5 0.2 ‐0.5 66,581 64,333 65,088 2.3

         Defense Aircraft and parts:       

               Unfilled Orders......................... 81,275 81,883 82,157 ‐0.7 ‐0.3 2.7 82,098 82,189 71,845 14.3

               Total Inventories....................... 13,333 12,919 13,237 3.2 ‐2.4 0.2 13,283 12,814 12,813 3.7

    All other durable goods:           

               Unfilled Orders......................... 9,410 9,352 9,348 0.6 0.0 ‐1.3 8,715 8,592 8,629 1.0

               Total Inventories....................... 59,355 59,252 58,909 0.2 0.6 0.4 59,740 58,332 57,407 4.1

    Capital goods3

:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 867,009 865,533 866,566 0.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.3 868,246 867,168 845,799 2.7

               Total Inventories....................... 205,863 204,602 203,906 0.6 0.3 0.2 204,441 198,264 195,508 4.6

           Nondefense capital goods:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 710,960 709,013 710,301 0.3 ‐0.2 ‐0.6 711,200 709,365 702,141 1.3

               Total Inventories....................... 182,836 181,943 181,009 0.5 0.5 0.2 181,503 175,668 173,149 4.8

                Excluding aircraft:               

                    Unfilled Orders.................... 222,001 222,653 223,296 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 0.0 220,723 219,290 216,534 1.9

                    Total Inventories................... 127,890 127,387 126,560 0.4 0.7 0.5 126,906 123,260 120,262 5.5

           Defense capital goods:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 156,049 156,520 156,265 ‐0.3 0.2 1.5 157,046 157,803 143,658 9.3

               Total Inventories....................... 23,027 22,659 22,897 1.6 ‐1.0 0.4 22,938 22,596 22,359 2.6

r  Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.      1 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of shipments and

new orders include adjusted data for non‐calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading‐day differences, where appropriate, as well as seasonal variation,

based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.         2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors

of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations,

see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.      3 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry,

and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery;

electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and  control instruments;

electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and

supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.    4 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals.  Estimates and percent

changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data.   

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, January Advance Report, March 13, 2019. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website at

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.