= z ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

ni EWS BUREAU OF THE

WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 February 27, 2001
For Questions - Lee Weniela or Derrick Roy CB-01-38

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(00)-01

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
January 2001

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $12.9 billion or 6.0 percent to $202.0
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.2 percent December increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. New orders for January 2001 are 5.6 percent below

January

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $12.5 billion or 22.4 percent to $43.2 billion; led by aircraft and parts,
all component industries declined. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $2.5 billion or 6.2 percent to 338.0
billion, due to electronic components. Primary metals, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.6 percent
to $14.0 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, led by computer and office equipment, increased $2.4 billion or 5.7
percent to $44.1 billion; this is the largest increase since January 2000.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in January decreased $3.5 billion or 1.7 percent to $203.0 billion, following a
0.6 percent December decrease. This is the fourth consecutive decrease. Shipments for January 2001 are 3.1 percent below
January 2000.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $3.3 billion or 7.3 percent to $41.6 billion; led by motor vehicles and
arts, all component industries declined. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $1.0 billion or 2.3 percent to
840.6 billion; this is the largest decrease since April 1998. Primary metals, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.1
pillion or 0.5 percent to $14.5 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $1.1 billion or 2.7 percent to $43.6

billion.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in January decreased $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $570.8
billion, following a 1.5 percent December increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $2.6
billion or 2.6 percent to $96.2 billion, due to electronic components. Primary metals, down fourteen of the last fifteen
months, decreased $0.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $29.2 billion. Transportation equipment increased $1.5 billion or 0.6
percent °. $263.7 billion, due to aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent
to $92.2 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in January decreased $0.5 billion or 7.3 percent to $5.8
billion. Shipments increased 0.1 percent to $6.7 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $109.7
illion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in January decreased $6.4 billion or 8.9 percent to
$65.2 billion. Shipments, down six of the last eight months, decreased $0.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $61.1 billion. Unfilled
orders, up seven of the last eight months, increased $4.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $295.9 billion. Excluding aircraft and
parts, new orders, up for the first time since September 2000, increased $3.4 billion or 6.5 percent to $55.1 billion;
shipments, down four consecutive months, decreased slightly to $53.4 billion; and unfilled orders, up for the first time since
September 2000, increased $1.8 billion or 1.4 percent to $130.5 billion.

@ REVISED DECEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $372.1 billion (revised from $372.9 billion); new orders, $380.5 billion (revised from $382.5 billion): unfilled
orders, $596.8 billion (revised from $598.0 billion); and total inventories, $493.3 billion (revised from $493.6 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS
Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 6, 2001 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for March 27, 2001
at 830 AM. This renart is available on the dav of iscne thraneh STAT-TISA Internet at warw stat-nea anv


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted '
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan Jan
20017 | 2000' 2000 Jan? Dec’ Nov 2001? | 2000° 2000} 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 202,980] 206,438] 207,715 “1.7 -0.6 175,906] 210,859] 184,327 -4.6|
New Orders. 202/024] 214.929] 212.391 -6.0 41.2 +3.1] 182,876] 218,064] 198,898] 8.1
Unfilled Orde 570,813] 571,769] 563,278 -0.2 +15) +0.8| 572,637] 565,667| 522350) +9.6
Excluding defens
Shipments 196,287| 199,750] 201,236 17 07 -1.2] 170,397] 202,985] 179,258 4,
New Orders. 196,263| 208,716] 204,029 -6.0 +23 +2.4| 176,733] 208,916] 191,451 77
Unfilled Orders 461,069] 461,093] 452,127 0.0 +2.0] +0.6| 461/700] 455,364) 426,332] +8.
172,372] 175,038] 175,165 1.5) 0.1 -0.6| 148,417] 183,262) 150,541 1.4
New Orders 171,416] 183,529 179,841 6.6 +24 +4.3} 155,387] 190,467) 165,112) 5.9)
Primary metals:
‘Shipments 14,470] 14,549] 15,138 0.5 3 -2.2) 13,728] 13,231) 15,333) -10.5
New Orde 14/046] 14,133) 14,819 0.6 4.6 -2.7| 14/219) 13,502] 16,385) -13.2'
Unfilled Orde 291172] 29,596] 30,012 14 - <1] 29/328) 28,837) 32,173 88
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 43,632| 42,492] 43,088 42.7 “1.4 -0.6] 36,040] 45,867) 34,358] _+4.9
New Orders 44,116] 41,735] 43,419 +57 -3.9) 40.2] 37/625} 44,206] 36,974) +18]
Unfilled Orders 92/232] 91,748) 92,508 +05) 0.8) +0.41 92/924] 91,339] 83,843] +10.8
Electronic and other
electrical equipment:
Shipments 40,600] 41,565] 40,565 +25 34,165] 46,698] 32,417, +5.4
New Orders 38,024] 40,539] 40,904 : 0.9 +7.3) 34,522 43,41 36,135) 4.5
Unfilled Order: 96,222] 98,798) 99,824 -2.6 -1.0) +0.3] 96,362| 96,005 +10.2
Transportation equipmen
Shipment: 41,613] 44,901] 45,456 1.2) 4] 36,796] 44,021] 44,448) -17.2
New Order 43,154, 55,605] _ 49,569 -22:4] 12.2] +12.4] 40,159] 55,935} 49,609] -19.0
Unfilled Ord 263,665) 262,124] 251,420 +0. +43 264/577] 261,214) 231,543] +14.3
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES *
Total:
Shipment 67,772| 68,432) 68,367 4 +1.1] 54,810) 79,855] 53,050} +3.3
New Orders. 70,934| 77,790] 72,888 8.8 +6.7| +10.2] 60,682] 89,971] _ 61,084 0.7
Unfilled Order 405,633] 402,471] 393,113) +0.8! +2.4] +1.2| 407/285] 401,413] 358,269] +13.7
Nondefense:
Shipment 61,079] 61,744] 61,888 a4 -0.2 +0.8] 49,301] 71,981] 47,981] +2.8
New Orders 65,173| 71,577] 64,526 8.9]  +10.9 48.8] 54/539] 80,823] 53,637) +1.7
Unfilled Order: 295,889] 291,795] 281,962! +14 +35 40.9} 296,348] -291,110] 262,251} +13.0
Excluding aircraft and part
Shipments 53,361] 53,364) 53,377 0.0 0.9 1.4] 42,886] 61,652) 41,508] +3.3
New Orders. 55,130| 51,764] 53,003 +65 2:3 -119| 45,799 , 45,819 0.0
Unfilled Orde 130,482] 128,713| 130,313 +1.4] 1.2 -0:3] 130,941] 128,028] 119,529] +9.5
Defense:
Shipments. 6,693 6,688] 6,479 +01 +3.2 +3.9) 5,509 7,874 5,069] +8.7
New Orders 5,761 6,213 8,362 73 25:7) +223 6,143 9,148 7,447| -17.5
Unfilled Orders. 109,744) 110,676] 111,151 08 -0.4 +1.7) 110,937] 110,303) 96,018) +15.5

(NA) Not Available "Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the total
not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month vari

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of, manufacturers, shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey oor and revi

or, which includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting, Since the survey panel is not a probability sampl
Further details ‘on ‘survey design, methodology, and data ‘imitetions are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication,
"Manufacture Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1997.”

2 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam
equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machi
ributton equipment, slctrical indvatrial apparatus, com
face vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad
Defense Capital Goods include : ordnance, communication equipmer

jations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are

riod and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month vs
ions.

One major component of survey error
atmates of sampling, irr cantar be Calculated.
1197),

rent Industrial Reports:

gines and turbines, in

ymputer and off t
ion om equipment, complete aircrat
‘and navigation equipment.

ion mining and material handling
@ industry
Menicles, arecatt missles, and

ent, and s
, aircraft, missil

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on Seasonally Adjusted Data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago] ‘Jan.] Jan. 2000-[" Year ago] Jan] Jan. 2000 Year ago] Jan.] Jan. 2000-

Jan. 2000| 1996-2000} Dec. 2000] _Jan. 2000| 1996-2000] Dec. 2000] _Jan. 2000] _ 1996-2000} _Dec. 2000)

Durable Goods 1.4] 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2

Primary metals. 0.7 0.7 0.4 3.0] 1.6 0.9] 07 0.4 0.3)

Industrial machinery and equipmen 2.8 07 09 1.4 Ww WW 0.7 0.3 0.3
Electronic and other

electrical equipment.. 0.3 0.9) 0.8] 3.2) 2.2 2.2 1.5 0.6) 0.7

Transportation equipmen: 1.7 1.2 0.8 4.0) WwW 1.9 0.5 0.4 0.2]

Nondefense capital good: 23 1.0) 0.9 49 1.7 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.2

Defense capital goods. 0.9 1.7 1.3 5.6 7A 6.7 0.2 0.2 0.4

The monthly averages are the simple averages of the
‘af tha currant month for the oast five vears.

Note: The r

ns are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estim

space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.



TOTAL DURABLE GOODS
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
230 illions Of Dollars

230
225 225
220 220
215 = 215

- “NN

210 — ~~ 210

_— ~
205 205
200 200
195 195
190 190

a a a a a a fo} ° f=} f=} ° co} -

$ 8 8 FS FS F FS F F€ F F< FF

— — Shipments New Orders
NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

70 Billigns Of Dollars 70
65 65

—— oe ee
60 - 60

=
a
_—

8 *
50 50
a aD a fea) an an f=] i=J c=} c=] °o co) -
$ 8 S$ 8 8 FS F$ F F F&F F< F 8
¢ 5 > s a > & 5 > 3 a > &

§ §€ €$ 3% 8 $ S$ F$ $F$ * B&B 2 8
— — Shipments —— New Orders

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.