U.S. Department of Commerce

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS FIRST-CLASS MAIL

Washington, D.C. 20233 POSTAGE & FEES PAID
CENSUS

Official Business PERMIT No. G-58

Penalty for Private Use, $300

NOTICE

Revised historical data for Manufacturers’ Shipments,
Inventories, and Orders will be issued in mid-June. The

primary purpose of the revision is to benchmark the data to the
1991 Annual Survey of Manufactures. Less significant revisions
will reflect the addition of data received too late to include
in the monthly press releases, corrections for misclassified
reports, and updating the trading day adjustment methodology.
Revisions related to benchmarking affect all industry categories.

Any questions regarding this announcement can be answered by
calling Steve Andrews on (301) 763-2502.



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | «its.
EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20290 mNCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth March 24, 1993
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB93-61
M3-1(93)-2

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 1993
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $2.9 billion or 2.2 percent to $135.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.3 percent decrease in January and a 9.7
percent increase in December. Excluding defense, new orders were up $5.1 billion or 4.1 percent. Excluding transportation
equipment, new orders decreased $0.7 billion or 0.7 percent.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $3.6 billion or 10.9 percent to $36.8 billion, as increases in
aircraft and parts, motor vehicles and parts, and railroad equipment more than offset a decline in shipbuilding and tanks. This
follows an 8.4 percent decrease in January. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, down $0.8
billion or 4.1 percent to $18.1 billion, primarily due to electronic components.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in February increased $3.4 billion or 2.6 percent to $133.8 billion, following a 2.7 percent
decrease in January. Excluding defense, shipments were up $3.2 billion or 2.6 percent. Excluding transportation equipment,
shipments increased $2.3 billion or 2.4 percent. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $1.1 billion or 3.1
percent to $36.4 billion, primarily due to motor vehicles and parts. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.9
billion or 5.1 percent to $18.6 billion, with increases in nearly all categories. Lumber and wood products, primary metals, and
stone, clay, and glass products also had large increases.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in February increased $1.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $452.5 billion. This is the fourth
increase in the last five months. Excluding defense, unfilled orders were up $2.4 billion or 0.7 percent. Excluding
transportation equipment, unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent. The largest increase was in primary metals,
up $0.8 billion or 3.4 percent to $22.6 billion, following a 6.9 percent increase in January. Transportation equipment was up
$0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $242.4 billion. The largest decrease was in electronic and other electrical equipment, down $0.5
billion or 1.1 percent to $43.6 billion.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in February increased $4.4 billion or 14.4 percent to $34.7 billion. The
February increase follows an 10.8 percent decrease in January. Shipments were up $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $33.0 billion,
following a 4.4 percent decrease in January. Unfilled orders increased $1.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $218.7 billion, the first
increase since March 1992. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased 2.2 percent, shipments were up 1.3 percent,
and unfilled orders increased 0.9 percent.

New orders for defense were down $2.2 billion or 24.5 percent to $6.6 billion, due to shipbuilding and tanks and
search and navigation equipment. The February decrease follows a 10.5 percent increase in January. Shipments increased $0.2
billion or 2.5 percent to $7.8 billion, following a 2.6 percent decrease in January. Unfilled orders decreased $1.2 billion or 0.9
percent to $127.4 billion, following a 0.9 percent increase in January.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS)

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 31, 1993. ‘The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for
April 23, 1993. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)
and through the Census Bureau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog,



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Feb, Jan. Dec. | Jan | Dec- } Nov.- Feb, Jan. Feb,
1993? 1993" 1993 | Feb? | Jan’ | — Dec. 1993? 1993 1992 | Feb.93/92
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments. L 133,819 | 130,447 | 138.010 6 27 4.6} 131,582 | 113,609 | 120,146
New orders DEELIIIE | 135004 | 132,061 | 135208 | 42.2 33 | 49:7 | 133'868 | 118083 | 116923 | +145
Unfilled orders 2552222222221.) 452/513 | 451,328 | 449.714 + 3 8 03 | 454339 | 452,053 | 478,738
Excluding defense : : |
Shipments Levees 1 125,972 | 122,792 | 6,152) 6 +47 | 124212 | 107579] 111,997] +10.9
New orders SEELETEISI] 187369 | 1237268 | 127/253 1 +411 231] +92] 128147 | 110574 | 111318 | +151
Unfilled orders 225222. 7. 2] 325/066 | 322,669 | 32:19" | 403 | 326,156 | 322,221 | 337/556 34
With unfilled orders
Shipments... . -| 106,479 | 104,226} 107,570 | +22 31 | +35 | 103,786 | 90,420} 97,721 +62
New orders 222222222 22.22] 107664 | 105:840 | 108;768 | +1.7 27| 49:7 | 106072 | 94894] 94458 | +122
Primary metals :
Shipments... 2... ween 11449] 1109} 1nois | #3. 0.8 11,380} 10,514 ] 11,060 429
New orders u SEITE} azi99 | 12's. | 11730 XS] 4o7] 494) 1245 | 1208 | 113385 +97
Unfilled orders’: mt 22/583 | 211833 | 20.427 | +34 69 23120 | 22015 | 21/522 474

Industrial machinery and equipment:

Shipments . 22,940 22,849 22,658 0. +4.0 22,026 19,107 19,325 +14.0
‘New orders . 23,473 23,112 22,383 +16 433 43.9 22,638 20,168 19,274 +175
Unfilled orders 51,535 51, 50,739 - 52,110 51,498 54,007 3.5

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :

Shipments ...... : 18,587] 17,691 | 19,306 | +5.1 +61 18,365 | 15,593 | 16,601 10.

New orders”... 18104 | 18: 19490 41 31] +70] 18567 | 17274] — 16,925 +9.7

Unfilled orders’: ° 43,589 | 44,072 | 42,884 “11 +04 | 431987 | 43:785 | 42,630
Transportation equipment : i

Shipments... 20... ..| 36368 | 35,283 | 36493 | 43.1 33] +72] 36572] 30167] 32,721 | +118

New orders 36,836 | 33214. | 36,241 | +109 "84 | +24'6 | 36,762 | 28380 | 29.186 | +26.0

Unfilled orders 242433 | 241,965 | 244,034 | +02 08 0.1 | 242822 | 242/632 | 265,184 “84

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?

Total:

Shipments .... . ..| 40,805 | 40,350] 42,046 | +11 40] +41] 38851 | 32,915 | 37,791

New orders. ||.) L 41350 | 397148 | 41/999 | +56 ‘eg | +188 | 391072 | 32826 | 33867 | +154

Unfilled orders : | 346,154 | 345,609 | 346.811 | +02 03 0.0 | 347,404 | 347,183 | 375,055 -

Nondefense :
Shipments 32,958 | 32,695 | 34.188] +08 -44| +441 31,481 | 26,885 | 29,642 46.2
New orders": 34715 | 30393 | 34044 | +144] 10.8] 419.0 | 33,351 | 25,317 | 28.262 | +18.0
Unfilled orders 218:707 | 216950 | 219,290 | +08 “Li -0.1 | 2192221 | 217351 | 233,873 63

Excluding aircraft and parts :

Shipments 27,501 27,155 27,954 13 4 26,310 22,638 23,342 +127
New orders . . 28,149 27,538 28,004 42.2 -L7 +75 27,071 23,793 23,550 +15.0
Unfilled orders. 73,434 72,786 72,403 +0.9 +05 +01 73,948 73,187 76,235 3.0
Defense :
Shipments 7,847 7,655 2858 +25 2.6 42.6 7,370 6,030 8,149 96
New orders. 6,635 8793 55, 24.5 10.5 417.7 5,721 7,509 5,605 42.1
Unfilled orders 127.447 1. 459 1 $21 | 69 +0.9 +0.1 128,183 129,832 141,182 92
(NA) Not available. Revised.
"Shipments and new orders are the totals {. period and are adjust rrading-day i cak nth vari, unfilled orders areas ofthe end ofthe period and are not adjusted for wading-day or ealendar-month variations,
> Based on advance sample,
“The Capital Goods Industries include Nowe ense ° ordnams tal cs cS, canes at, Vs, itscral combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry

ry, general I machinery, computer and office igerati... heating and service .alustry machinery, electrical wansmission and distribution equipment, I industrial apparatus, c: ‘ation equipment,
Complete siferah. missiles, and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment
Defense capital goods inciode ordnance. communication equipment, aera, missiles. space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, seafch and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Feb. | Feb, 1992-| Year ago Feb. ] Feb. 1992-| Year ago Feb, | Feb. 1992-

Feb. 1992 | 1988-1992 |_Jan. 1993 |_Feb. 1992] 1988-1992 | Jan. 1993] Feb. 1992] 1988-1992] Jan. 1993

Durable goods . beeen eee Or 04 04 01 .6 08 0. 01 01

Primary metals ...... 2.2... . 03 0.2 2. 0.6 09 0.9 0.2 03 03

Industrial machinery and equipment . 04 = c7 ia 17 1.0 0.0 03 0.1
Electronic and other

electrical equipment .........---- 0. v2 0.0 0.7 08 0.1 02 0.1

‘Transportation equipment 0. a 01 0.5 2.0 0.0 01 02

Nondefense capital goods 0.3 08 09 02 12 18 0.0 01 0.2

Defense capital goods . 0.7 0.6 16 09 0. 6.7 Ol O41 03

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard tc


Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
150 150

New Orders
140 F- - Shipments | 140
130 130
120 120
110 110
100 L L 1 i a L 1 1 L L 1 1 1 100
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1921 - Fev. 1993
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45

New Orders

40 ------- <2 - rer rrr errr ee

25 bad n n n L L n n L n

Shipments | 40

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Feb. 1991 - Feb. 1993

Oct

; bet 25
Dec Feb

Note: All Charts based on seasonally

adjusted current dollars.