UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF

MERCE

WASHINGTON, DC 20230

ECONOMICS
AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

For Data - (301) 457-4673 July 28, 1999
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB99-146
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(99)-06

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
June 1999
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $196.9 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.8 percent May increase and is the tenth increase
in the last thirteen months. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 6.2 percent

above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 2.7 percent to $46.6 billion; an increase in motor vehicles and
parts more than offset a decrease in aircraft and parts. This follows a 9.0 percent May increase and is the sixth increase in the last
eight months. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.7 billion or 2.1 percent to $34.8 billion, following a 0.8
percent May decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $2.0 billion or 5.4 percent to $35.7 billion, following a 4.5
percent May decrease. Primary metals increased slightly to $14.8 billion, following a 0.5 percent May increase.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in June increased $1.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $201.0 billion, following a 1.1
per :ent May increase. This is the eleventh increase in the last thirteen months. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.9 percent above the
san e period a year ago.

Tri isportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 2.7 percent to $50.2 billion, as an increase in motor vehicles and
par ; more than offset a decrease in aircraft and parts. This follows a 2.2 percent May increase and is the fourth increase in the
last five months. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up ten of the last thirteen months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent
to $34.2 billion. This follows a 0.7 percent May increase. Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $14.6 billion,
following a 2.0 percent May increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since January, decreased $0.5
billion or 1.5 percent to $37.0 billion, following a 0.1 percent May increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in June decreased $4.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $493.5 billion,
following a 0.6 percent May decrease. This is the third consecutive decline. Transportation equipment, down twelve of the last
fourteen months, had the largest decrease, $3.5 billion or 1.5 percent to $231.5 billion. This follows a 1.4 percent May decrease.
Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since November 1998, decreased $1.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $77.9
billion. This follows a 0.3 percent May increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up seven consecutive months,

inc: :ased $0.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $65.8 billion. This follows a 0.3 percent May increase. Primary metals, up five

cor. ecutive months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $30.4 billion. This follows a 1.1 percent May increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June decreased $0.2 billion or 3.8 percent to $5.6 billion,
following a 14.5 percent May increase. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 3.7 percent to $6.3 billion, following a 0.7 percent
May increase. This is the fourth decrease in the last five months. Unfilled orders decreased $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $94.1
billion, following a 0.8 percent May decrease. This is the third consecutive decrease.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June decreased $2.4 billion or 4.6 percent to $50.5 billion,
following a 0.8 percent May increase. Shipments, down for the first month since February, decreased $1.1 billion or 2.0 percent
to $54.5 billion. This follows a 1.6 percent May increase. Unfilled orders, down for the fourth consecutive month, decreased $4.0
billion or 1.6 percent to $252.0 billion. This follows a 1.0 percent May decrease. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
decreased $1.8 billion or 4.0 percent to $44.2 billion; shipments, up for the fourth consecutive month, increased 0.1 percent to
$46.5 billion; and unfilled orders decreased $2.2 billion or 2.0 percent to $109.6 billion.

© REVISED MAY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $350.6 billion

(revised from $350.9 billion); new orders, $347.9 billion (revised from $348.6 billion); unfilled orders, $521.3 billion
(revised from $521.8 billion); and total inventories, $463.9 billion (revised from $464.0 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 4, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for July is scheduled for August 25, 1999 at
8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of dollars)
Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jung May Ape Apr- | Mar.- June Ma June
1999? 1999" 1999 May’ ‘Apr. 1999° 199 1998 } June99/98
DURABLE GOODS
total:
shipments 201.048 | 199.353 0.9 +11 219,381 | 198.707 | 204.742 +71
News orders 196.948 | 196.34 +03 +0.8 309.697 | 192207 | 196,102 +09
hed orders 493.465 | 407.36 “08 06 490.160 | 499.844 | 501/923 23
Tvchuding detense :
ts 5 192.779 190,720 10 8 1
4] 190512 | Ls96i4 Ws “10 3
71 40271K | 4098s “08 -06 “03 7
163.820 | 163.998 “04 +10 +4.7
189730 | 160.953 “08 +07 +43
14.626 14.506 08 +2.0 “19 2.4
14.848 14.846 00 +05 +16 +36
30417 30.195 07 + +18 73
is “01 +13
sa “45 32
“1s 03 427
34.162 py 3.655 08 +0.7 19 33.909 +108
34x18 $096 34364 “21 “08 03 30,788 158
65.829 68.173 64.952 10 03 +1 55.291 +140
ausportation equipment :
Sripments 50.160 48.818 788 +22 +209
New orders 46.617 45.378 A616 +90 “16.8
ie! orders 231453 | 234900 | 2381436. 4 21330 “79
CARTEL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
60,807 68,765 2.0
56.067 653374 -18
346.066 301.976 4
2.0 16 09 +30
diets 46 1S 15 “15
‘ orders 16 10 08 42
Pxgluding aireratt and parts :
46,455 46.421 46.016 +01 +08 44.091 +31
See ders 44244 46.089 47.437 40 03 43.75. 08 “0.1
Hilled orders hoy602 | E813 | 112145 -2.0 +13 112,095 | 104,048 +48
Defense
Stupments 6.574 “3.7 +0.7 6374 6,881 Ld
New orders 55 5796 38] +lds] 349 4.603 47
pfilled orders 94,088 94847 08 “08 “15 96,027 99.666 “5.1
~ welable* Revised
sn new ote tor the peta and are adsted for radimg-day- and calenat-month varias; unl onders are aso Che end othe per si ate mn ante for traing-duy vr ean ment. variaons
1 none ‘ey panel fe prouliay, samp estimate sampling err can he alltel Vamtations ae contained

mis. M106), 'M

sures” Shipments, hiventoes and Ones 198

Gods Industrie include Nonetense <6 and accesses, steam engines ak utbines, sternal
seal rMtril machin). cmnputer an oie a
nan! space vehicles, arena

stipe and ta
include" ordnance, communication equipment. aictalt, missile, space vehicles, uml pats, ships

hand navigation equypen
tanks and tank Componens, search and navigation cquypmient

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANG

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Tune | June 1958-]| Year ago Tune | June 1998-| Year ago Tune | June 1998-

June 1998 | 1994-1998 | May 1999 |_June 1998 | 1994-1998 | May 1999] June 1998] 1994-1998 | May 1999

Durable goods 06 04 06 28 09 22 02 0.1 04

Primacy. metals 09 0.6 Vl 09 12 23 09 05 08

i! machinery and equipment 42 1s 10 29 16 10 09 04 07

ic and other

rical equipment 52 13 14 105 34 45 08 os Ll

Lransportation equipment 70 20 19 37 i 67 02 01 05

Nondefense capital goods 32 16 13 19 La 31 v4 7 v4

Detense capital goods 16 12 14 253 74 28 v4 02 10
~oteThe revisions ate the differences between the month-to-month pereent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t0 sien

ve pionths specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
215 215

New Orders
205 - - ~~ ee ee ee eee ee ee eee ees Shipments || 205

195

185

VBP ~~~ oe eee eee eee eee eee eee eee ee -4 175

165 bod n ! n nl ! L H ! L ! 1 bl 165
Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
Jun. 1997 - Jun. 1999

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
59 59

New Orders

Shipments

39 Ln L a ! rl ! n 1 ! L ! LI 39
Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr = Jun

Jun. 1997 - Jun. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.