—____-— $$$. ——~ CONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ee OOND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

wet ee
Ai ier = U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
REE = .

Vee We os WASHINGTON, DC 20230

US. Census Bureau For Release 10:00 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 763-4673 November 27, 2002

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832 CB-02-153

M3-1(02)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
October 2002

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars and exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

©@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in October increased $4.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $173.9 billion, the Department
of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 4.6 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new
orders increased 2.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.8 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2002 were 0.5 percent
below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.0 billion or 4.0 percent to $51.3 billion, led by motor vehicles and parts which
increased by $1.5 billion. Computers and electronic products increased $1.5 billion or 6.2 percent to $26.3 billion, due to
communications equipment. The communications equipment increase of $2.0 billion was the largest increase since January 1997.

© SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in October increased $2.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $176.1 billion. This followed a 0.9
percent September decrease. Year to date, shipments for 2002 were 0.9 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $53.8 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts, which
increased by $1.6 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $2.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $483.6 billion and were
at the lowest level since October 1996. This followed a 1.0 percent September decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $2.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $249.5 billion, due to nondefense aircraft and parts,
which decreased $1.7 billion.

@ INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in October, down twenty-one consecutive months, decreased $0.6 billion or 0.2
percent to $263.0 billion and were at the lowest level since November 1995. This followed a 0.2 percent September decrease.

Machinery, down nineteen consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $44.5 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October decreased $1.3 billion or 17.2 percent to $6.2 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 3.5 percent to $6.5 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $126.0 billion.
Inventories increased slightly to $18.5 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in October, up five of the last seven months, increased $2.2
billion or 4.2 percent to $55.1 billion. Shipments increased $0.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $57.1 billion. Unfilled orders, down twenty of
the last twenty-one months, decreased $2.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $209.9 billion, the lowest level since February 1996. Inventories,
down twenty-one consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $112.0 billion, the lowest level since December 1995.

© REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders,

$318.5 billion (revised from $318.1 billion); shipments, $323.4 billion (unrevised); unfilled orders, $485.8 billion (revised from $485.3
billion); and total inventories, $429.0 billion (revised from $428.8 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published December 4, 2002 at 10:00 A.M EST. The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled for
December 24 at 8:30 A.M EST.


Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments and New Orders
[Millions of Dollars)

Seasonaly Adjusted Not Seasonally Adiusted
Monthly Percent Change ‘Monthly Percent
item Change
Oct Sep Aug se Aug - Jul Oct Sep oct Oct
2002 * 2002" 2002 Oct * Sep" Aug 2002 * 2002" 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total shipments. 176,123) 174,028] 175,561 12 0.9] 1.8] 181.451] 185.951] 174,816 3.8
New Orders... 173,928] 169,122| 177,286 24 4.6 cua] 177!141] 176/397] 176,065] a8
Exciatmentses 122,336] 121,884] 122,902 0.6| 1 0.7} 124,098] 130,613 122.580 13
New Orders 122'883] 119,740] 119.761 2.4 0.0 1.7] 123:293) 126,464] 118,073} 4a
Exclaipmentees 168,514} 165,995] 167,827 1.5] aa -1.9] 173,954 177,027] 168,075 38
New Orders... 166,387| 160,315] 168, 983| 38 5 oi] 170638] 167727] 158,467] 7
Manutocsstotents. 122,547] 122,240) 122,167 0.3 O1 1.3] 124,361] 131,023 122,042] 1.9
New Orders. 120,350] 117/337| 123,902] 2.5 5.3] ‘o14] 120/051] 121/463) 123/281 26
Primary metals:
Shipments. 11,404] 11,341] 11,395] os 0.5 oa} 11,984] 11,498] 11,562] 3.4
New Orders... 11/358] 11/338) 11,412 0.2 08 ve] 11,414] 11009] 10,466 an
Fabricated metal product :
Shipments... 21,251] 21.342) 21.358 -0.4| 0.1 oof 22,338] 22,018] 22,112] 1.0
New Orders 21/247] 21/105 20/802 0.7] 15 va} 21,840] 21.2011 20,940 43
Machinery:
Shipments... 22,916 22.782) 23,063 0.8 12 os] 22,741] 23,914 22,860] 0.5
New Orders. 22:78 21/988 22,012 33 “07 4.3] 22490] 22735] 211536 44
COMPUT MENS | 26,280] 26,079] 26,498 04 1.8 1.7| 24,827] 30,665] 2,008 07
New Orders. Cnn] 2e!3a8] 2aleoe] 25,288 6.2] 113} -4'0] 24/808] 28,982] 24,192 25
Computers and related products:
‘Shipments. sen 7,256| 6,746 6,846 7.6 18 -3.2| 6,837 8,476] 5,954] 148
New Orders. 7/285 7,384 8,763 ee) 9.3] “07 6,890} 8,810] 6.130 12:4
Communications equipment:
‘Shipments. 5,095| 5,364] 5,464 5.0] -1.8| 03 4,529 6,478] 5.787] 7
New Orders... 5,188 3139 5.074 65.2| 38.1 85 4716 45514 5,505| “443
Semigonductors:
Shipments (NA) Nay (nay (Nay (nay (nay (nal (NA) (NA (NAY
New Orders Na) (Nal (na) (Na) na) (na) (Nal (NA) Nal (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
‘and components
Shipments. 8,999] 8,896] 8,937] 12 05 1.9] 8,876 9,834] 9,233] 3.9
New Orders... 8,977] 91121 8,896 115 28 3.9] 8,960 9°672| 9,023] “07
‘Transportation equipment:
hipments.re.- 53,787] 52,471] 52,659 25 0.4 4.2} 57,353] 55,338] 52,256 98
New Orders.. 51343] 43/382] 57/538 4. 14.2 0.2] sareaal_ 49,933] 57/992 a1
Motor vehicles and parts:
ipments. ses 39,513] 37,957] 38,821 4a 2.2 -35| 43,918] 38,968] 38,868 13.0
New Order 39,266 37/798] 38,439 3.9] 17 -4;3] 43/500] 38.645] 38,429 13:2
Nondefonse srratt and parts:
ipments. 6.310 6,305] 5,678 on 11.9 13.4 5,518 7,017 6.435] “14.3
New Orders.. 41565 472i 9,005} -3.3| 4755 45.7) 3,488 4/304 2.139] 615
Defense aicratt and parts:
Shipments. 2,877 3,129 2,983 8.1 5.6 87 2,787 3,618 2,178 28.0
New Orders. 2/683} 21851 3,107 =) 8.2| 50.0] 'ai0 2942] 13,256 86.3
All other durable goods:
‘Shipments. 31.586] 31.114) 31.651 18 17 0.4] 33,362] 32,684) 31,788 5.0
New Orders... 31964] 31'3ao} 3134] 13 on “0:3] 33,783] 32,865] 31916 58
ital gpd
IPMENES. snes esees ee 63,540] 63,079] 63,302 07 0.4] 2.2] 61,539] 69,946] 61,488 ot
New Orders 81,368] 60.421] 68,258] 18 “88 8:1} 89/377] 65.558] 86,539 “10.8
Nondetense capital goods:
‘Shipments — 57,082) 56,380] 56,822 12 0.8 2.5| $5,222! 62,640] 55,499 05
New Orders 55,132| 52.896) 59,214 42 10.7 4.0] 53,674] 58,128] 49,408 86
Excluging aitcraft:
53,892) 53,1331 4,200 14 -2.9] -1.2] 52,643] $9,360} 2,274 07
Now Orders, 53.413, 80,7471 83,043 5.3 4:3} sa] 52/568] 88.955| 80.112 49
Defense capital goods:
Shipments.» 6.458] 6,690] 6,480 -3.5| 3.2] 1 6,317 7,306} 5,989] 5.5
New Orders. 6.233| 7/525| 7.044] 172] 3:5 28.3] 5,703| 71430, 17/128} 66.7

NA Not Available * Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calender-month variations; unfiled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted
for trading-day or ealendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manuiacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey eat and revislon. One malor component of survey error is nonsampling ror, which includes
‘errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is robabilty sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology,
Sind data bmtavona are Contamed in our most recent annual benchynerk publceton, Current Indvatial Reports; M3-(Olly “Manvtacturers” Shipment, Inventories, and Orders: 1992 200T.-

ihe, Capital Goods industies include Nondefense ; smal arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equioment: construction machinery: mining, ol. and gas field machinery; Industrial machinery: vending, lau

and other machinery: photographic equipment: metsworking machinery turbines and generators; ther power transmission equipment, pumps and compressors; material Tandling equipment: skiotier machinery?”
‘electronic computers; computer storage ‘Computer perheral equipment; communications eapments search ane navigation emupmerts eectromedcal, meusurhy. and conbol netuments:
Siecurcel equipment: other elecicel equprnent, @pances, and Components: heer duey wuckos akcrofs takoud romy ateck; ships and baste office and Tnettatonal fanfare; and edcel exuipment and

supplies.
Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

* Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the
Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

* Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor
shipments, orders, or inventories.



Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories
[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Oct
20027 2002' 2002 Oct ? Sep‘ Aug 20027 | 2002 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:*
Unfilled Orders. 483,599 485,796) 490,699] 0.5) 1.0) 0.4) 475,161 479,460) 509, 138] 6.7
Total inventories... 262,952 263,514) 264,070] 0.2) -0.2 0.1 (264,966) 263,393 284,462) 6.9
234,094) 233,847] 235,661 0.1 0.8] 1,3) 230,198} 230,992 250,970) 8.3
Inventories........ : 192,024] 192,538] 192.891 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1] 192,507] 191,638] 207.556! 7.3
defense:*
led Order 336,909] 339,036 344,716] -1.6) 0.3] 332,737 336,045) 370,175] 10.1
Total inventoris 240,945) (241,450) 242,102 -0.3] 0.3) 242,801 241,037) (262,712 7.6
Manufacturing with yafilied orders:*
Unfilled Orders 483,599) 485,796 490,699) 1.0) 0.4) 475,161 479,460) 509,138] 6.7
Total inventories 213,662) 213,924] 215,014] “015 0.1] 215,434] 213/934] 233,412 77
imary metals:
Unfilled Orders...... 15,895) 15,943) 15,946 -0.3] 0.0) 0.1 14,980) 16,247) 7.8
Total Inventories. ansensen: 18,437) 18,404) 18,425 0.2) 0.1 0.7) 18,593] 19,649) 54
ated metal products:
Unfilled Orders. seeneeneen 38,687 38,691 (38,928 0.0 0.6 1.4] 38,225 38,723} 41,245
Total Inventories. 30,809 30,836) 30,755) 0.1 0.3) 0.6) 30,594] 30,734} 32,555)
Machinery:
Unfilled Orders. 45,890) 46,102! 46,896] 1,7] +2.2 45,450] 45,701 54,204} 16.2
Total Inventories. 44,452] 44,635) 44,769) 0.3) -0.5| 44,662! 44,363] 48,314) 7.6
Computers and electronic products:*
Unfilled Orders. 109,152] 108,997 410,268} 1,2] Vd 107,200} 107,221 114,058} -6.0
Total Inventories...... . 42,401 42,510) 42,798} 0.7] 0.5] 42,667) 42,160] 49,064) 13.0
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders... aes 6,848} 6,819) 6,181 10.3) 1.3] 6,667) 6,614) 6,864) 2.9
Total Inventories. 7,043) 7,303} 6,852) 6.6) 1.3] 7,011 6,983 7,883} Wd
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 39,207 39,117] 41,342 0.2) 6.4) -0.9] 38,468) 38,281 42,485) -9.5
Total Inventories.. 9,059) 9,173) 9,970} 1.2] 8.0) -2.8] 9,148 9,189) 12,527) 27.0
Semiconductors:>
Unfilled Order (NA) (NA)| (NA) (NA); (NA) (NA) (NA)| (NA) (NA) (NA)
Total inventories. (NA), (NA) (NA) (NA)| (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Order 14,732) 14,754) 14,529] 0.1 1.5] 0.3] 14,529 14,445) 14,903} 2.5
Total Inventories...... 12,582] 12,749) 12,885) 1.3] wd 1.2] 12,553) 12,435) 13,847] 9.3
Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Order 249,505] (251,949) 255,038] -1.0} 1.2] 1.9] 244,963 248,468 258, 168} 5.7
Total Inventories............ 70,928) 70,976] 71,179) 0.1 0.3] -0.3] 72,459] 71,755! 76,906) 5.8
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 12,194} 12,441 12,600] 2.0} -1.3] 2.9) 11,621 12,039) 11,756) at
Total Inventories. 7 20,650) 20,720) 20,318) -0.3] 2.0) -0.7 21,015) 21,032] 21,041 0.1
Nondefense Aircraft and d parts:
Unfilled Orders..........000ccc00e0 112,641 114,386) 115,970} 71.5) 1.4) 3.0) 112,023] 114,086 128,805) 13.0
Total Inventories.. 28,736 28,721 29,448] 0.1 2.5 -1.0] 29,722! 29,043} 34,396) 13.6
Defense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Order 57,532) 57,726) 58,004) -0.3] -0.5) 0.2 55,677 56,654) 51,666) 7.8
Total Inventor 10,861 10,915} 10,876) 0.5) 0.4) 2.5) 10,920} 10,990) 10,177) 7.3
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 9,738] 9,360} 9,094) 4.0) 2.9) -3.3] 9,814] 9,393} 10,313] 48
Total Inventories 43,343] 43,404) 43,259] 0.1 0.3) 0.2 43,438] 43,452) 44,127 1.6
Capital Peed
ode Orders. . . 335,849) 338,024) 340,682] -0.6 0.9 331,154) 333,316 358,991 -7.8
Total inventories. steansen 130,547 131,506 132,586] 0.7 0.4] 131,934) 131,215] 146,883} 10.2
Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 209,853} 211,803 215,296] -0.9) 1.6] Vd 208,403} 209,951 236,297 11.8
Total Inventories. 112,006 112,974 114,020) -0.9) 0.9] -0.9) 113,387] 112,521 128,145] 11.5
Excluding aircraft:
Unfilled Orders... . 125,863 126,342) 128,728) 0.4) -0.9] 124,413) 124,490} 138,632) 10.3
Total Inventories. eeseeeeeed 89,871 90,650) 91,118} 0.9] -0.8) 90,308} 89,832] 100,397] -10.0
Defense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 125,996) 126,221 125,386] 0.2] 05 122,751 123,365 122,694) 0.0
Total Inventories.. 18,541 18,532 18,566) 0.0} 2.9) 18,547] 18,694) 18,738] “1.0

See footnotes at end of Table 1