U.S. Department of Commerce

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS FIRST-CLASS MAIL

Washington, D.C. 20233 POSTAGE & FEES PAID
CENSUS

Official Business PERMIT No. G-58

Penalty for Private Use, $300

PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1995 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report Regular Report
Report Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1994 Thur., Jan. 26 Fri., Feb. 3
January 1995 Fri., Feb. 24 Fri., Mar. 3
February 1995 Fri., Mar. 24 Fri., Mar. 31
March 1995 Wed., Apr. 26 Wed., May 3
April 1995 Wed., May 24 Thurs., June 1
May 1995 Fri., June 23 Fri., June 30
June 1995 Thur., July 27 Thur., Aug. 3
July 1995 Thur., Aug. 24 Thur., Aug. 31
August 1995 Wed., Sept. 27 Wed., Oct. 4
September 1995 Thur., Oct. 26 Thur., Nov. 2
October 1995 Wed., Nov. 29 Wed., Dec. 6

November 1995 Wed., Dec. 27 Thur., Jan 4, 1996



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | stirsn
NI EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable February 24, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95-46
M3-1(95)-1

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE, GooDs MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
fanuary 1995
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $1.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $163.1 billion, the Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows increases in December and November of 1.8 percent and 3.4 percent

respectively, and is the fifteenth increase in the last eighteen months.

Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase, $2.0 billion or 7.2 percent to $30.4 billion, with most components
increasing. This is the first increase since October 1994. Fabricated metal products also increased. Transportation equipment had the
largest decline, $2.1 billion or 5.0 percent to $39.7 billion, due to shipbuilding and tanks. This follows increases of 5.9 percent in
December and 12.1 percent in November. Primary metals decreased $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $15.3 billion, the first decline since
July 1994. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased 0.1 percent to $25.7 billion, also the first decline since last July.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in January increased $1.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $160.3 billion. This follows increases of 1.1
percent in December and 3.1 percent in November, and is the thirteenth increase in the last eighteen months. Electronic and other
electrical equipment, up for the fifteenth consecutive month, increased $0.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $24.8 billion. Primary metals
increased $0.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $15.1 billion, the twelfth consecutive monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment
was up $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $28.8 billion. This follows a 1.3 percent December increase and is the eighth increase in the last
nine months. Transportation equipment, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $40.1 billion.
The December and November increases were 0.4 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively. Fabricated metal products also increased.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in January increased $2.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $434.3 billion, the fifth consecutive
monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, had the largest increase, $1.6 billion or 2.3 percent to $69.2 billion. This
follows a 0.5 percent December decline and seventeen consecutive monthly increases. Electronic and other electrical equipment
increased $1.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $48.3 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Primary metals was up $0.3 billion or
0.9 percent to $29.5 billion, the fourteenth consecutive monthly increase. Transportation equipment, down nearly every month since
September 1991, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $202.8 billion. This follows a 0.9 percent increase in December, which was
the first increase since January 1994.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $3.1 billion or 33.0 percent to $6.2 billion; all components declined, led by shipbuilding
and tanks. This follows a 66.1 percent increase in December, and is the third decline in the last four months. Shipments increased
$0.3 billion or 5.2 percent to $6.6 billion, following a 7.1 percent decrease in December. Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or
0.4 percent to $112.1 billion, following a 2.7 percent increase in December.

Nondefense - New orders increased $3.2 billion or 8.6 percent to $41.1 billion, following a 7.2 percent decrease in December.
Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $39.0 billion, following a slight December decline. Unfilled orders increased $2.0
billion or 1.0 percent to $202.5 billion. This follows a 0.5 percent December decline and is the fourth increase in the last five months.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $2.0 billion or 5.8 percent, following a 1.1 percent decline in December and a 1.0
percent decline in November; shipments increased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $34.5 billion, the sixth consecutive monthly increase;
unfilled orders increased $2.5 billion or 2.7 percent, the twentieth consecutive monthly increase.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1995 RELEASE DATES)

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 3, 1995. The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for March 24, 1995. This report is
available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc, (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe
(1-800-848-8199), The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-457-1214) can provide content information and general guidance.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted

Not seasonally adjusted!

Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jan, Dec. Nov, | Dec; | Nov. | Qct- Jan, Dec. Jan,
1995 1994 1994 | Jan? | Dec." | Nov. 1995? 1994 1994 | Jan.95/94
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments . . . 160,258 | 158,994 | 157.292 | +0.8 +11] 43.4] 142,116 | 158,505 | 127,662 | +113
New orders 163,088 | 162,138 | 159,321 +06 418] +34] 150,143 | 162,499 | 135,776 | +106
Unfilled order 434,268 | 431,438 | 428,295 | +0.7 40.71 +05 | 435,716 | 427,689 | 425,741 423
Excluding defense :
Shipments 153,615 | 152,679 | 150,493 | +0.6 +15 | +32 | 136,724 | 150,831 | 121,853 +122
New orders 156,897 | 152,892 | 153,754 | +2.6 06) +437 | 144565 | 150,145 | 128,783 | +123
Unfilled orders: 322198 | 318916 | 318,704 | +1.0 +0.1 +10 | 322;418 | 314,577 | 307,419 +49
With unfilled orders :
Shipments ....... 126,783 | 125317 | 124,162 | +12 +09} 4251 111,874 | 128,911 99,801 +121
New orders 129,613 | 128/461 | 126,191 +09 +18 | 428] 119901 | 132,905 | 107,915 +101
Primary metals :
Shipments. 15,055 14,933 14,155 0.8 +55] +42] 14,307 13,794 1199 | +278
New orders 153328 15,632 14,644 “19 +671 +01 15,720 15125 12436 | 426.4
Unfilled orders 297454 | 29181 | 28482 | +09] 425] 41.7] 29353} 27,940 | 22,785 | +288
Industrial machinery and eqi
hipments ........ 28,820 | 28,735 | 28362 | +03 +13 24,659 | 31,911 21,393 +153
New orders | - -. 30,407 | 28373. | 30,048 | +72 56 27175 | 30,981 3004 | +17-7
Unfilled orders 69,200 | 67,613 | 67,976 | +23 05 691930 | 67,414 4679 | 427.9
Electronic and other
el | equipment :
Shipments . 24,773 | 24,630 | 24,465 06] +07] +36] 21,677 | 2614) 18,540 | +16.9
New orders 25,748 | 25,783 | 24,771 0.1 441] +33] 24225 | 26570 | 20,539 | +17.9
Unfilled orders’ - 48,268 | 47,293 | 46,140 2.1 +25 | +07 | 48/680 | 46,132 | 46,437 +48
Transportation equipment :
Shipments. . fees 40,071 40,016 | 39,875 +04] +69} 35,649 | 38,322 | 34,315 43.9
New orders. 39,744 | 41,819 | 39,484 459] 412.1 36,006 | 41.388 | 37,425 38
Unfilled orders... 2: | 202:794 | 203,121 | 201,3 +09 0.2 | 203;534 | 203:177 | 216,586 -6.0
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total:
Shipments . . 45,692 | 45,231 | 45,732 | +1.0 11] +18] 37,964 | $3,393 | 34,698 49.4
New orders’ 47,282 | 47/095 | 46348 | +04] +16) +51 41201 56.321 38643 +66
Unfilled orders 314/562 | 312,972 | 311,109 | +0.5 40.6] +02 | 316,483 | 313,246 | 318,420 -06
Nondefense :
Shipments 39,049 | 38,916 | 38,933 oo] +241] 32572] 45,719 | 28,889) +12.7
New orders 41/091 7,845 40,781 +86 72| +65 | 35623 | 43,967 | 31,650 | +12.6
Unfilled orders 202/492 | 200,450 | 201,518 205 | +09 | 203,185 | 200,134 } 200,098 415
Excluding aircraft and part
Shipments ...... 34,500 | 34,294] 34,110] +0.6 5 4] 29,084 | 39,845 | 24,937 | +16.6
New orders 36952 | 34910 | 35312) +58 i -10 | 32;545 | 39.776 | 26,638 | +222
Unfilled orders. . 93,993 | 91541 | 90,926 | +2.7 3] 94,686 | 91,225 | 77,359) +22.4
Defense :
Shipments 6,643 6315 6,799} +52 21] +05 $,392 7,674 5,809 512
New orders 6,191 9/246 51567 | -33.0 | +66.1 42 5578 | 12,354 6,993 -202
Unfilled orders’ - 112,070 | 112/522 | 109,591 “0.4 42.7 UT | 113;208 | 1137112 | 118,322 “42

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

"shipments and new orders are the (tals forthe period and are adjusted for traing-day and calenar-month variations; unfiled orders areas of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for rading-day or calendur-monh variations

2 paved on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments and orders are subject to survey variability and revision, Since the survey pane! i nota probability sample, estimates of sampling vaiailty canna be calcu

Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitation ate contained in our most recent annual
‘anc accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment. metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical tion .

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense

ordnance

rk publication, Current fi

"Reports: M3-1(92), "M:

‘Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992."

sion and distribution

‘apparans,

Complete steraR missiles, and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment,
raion equipment, aircraft, missile, space vehicles, and part, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Defense capital goods include : ordnance,  communic

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Jan. ] Jan. 1994- | Year ago Tan.]| Jan. 1994-] Year ago Tan. | Jan. 1994-

Jan. 1994 | 1990-1994 | Dec. 1994] Jan. 1994] 1990-1994 | Dec. 1994] Jan. 1994] 1990-1994] Dec. 1994

Durable goods . 05 06 02 07 07 04 04 02 01

Primary metals 0.11... a 05 02 06 0.1 12 13 02 06 05

Industrial machinery and equipment’. . . 10 07 07 02 05 07 02 03 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . 06 05 04 13 14 09 02 03 04

Transportation equipment 09 03 07 18 09 08 05 01 01

Nondefense capital goods... 16 08 06 09 07 09 01 ol 4

Defense capital goods .. . .- 05 04 07 239 58 54 Lo 03 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to 5

for the months soecitied.


Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
185 185

New Orders
VBP- ~~ 2-2 eee eee rer errr eres —— 4175
Shipments
165 165
155 155
145 145
135 135
125 L i 1 1 1 L L 1 L i L 1 i 125
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Jan. 1993 - Jan. 1995
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
47 47

New Orders

42; ------- 2-2-2 eee eee ee rr eee

27

Shipments |-] 42

n 1 Lt 57

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

Jan. 1993 - Jan. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonally

adjusted current dollars.