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 How the Data are Collected General Methodology The estimates in this report rely upon 3 major information sources: 
              (1) the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Manufactures; (2) 
              detailed data from the Census Bureau’s U.S. International Trade 
              in Goods and Services; and (3) the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ 
              Input-Output (I/O) Accounts of 
              the U.S. Economy. To provide a means for using these different sources 
              on a comparable basis required manipulations and conversions. For 
              example, each of these sources uses a different classification scheme 
              (NAICS for the economic census, manufacturing sector, the Harmonized 
              System for the exports of merchandise, and a NAICS based system 
              for I/O accounts). The user should bear in mind that conversions 
              and adjustments for such differences are imperfect, and a potential 
              source of error in the figures presented in this report. These estimates 
              are preliminary because I/O data are not available when the estimates 
              are calculated. Final estimates of export-related employment will 
              incorporate I/O data. A short description of the methodology is as follows: Exports as 
              reported by manufacturers on the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) 
              were allocated to the industry and state of that manufacturer. These 
              export totals then were compared to the U.S. International Trade 
              in Goods and Services, as reported by exporting firms. Because many 
              manufacturers do not know whether or not their products are exported, 
              the export data from the ASM were adjusted to the totals from the 
              U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, with differences 
              allocated to industries and states. These data then represented 
              the "direct" exports of manufactured goods, by industry and by state. Employment-to-shipment ratios from the ASM were used to estimate 
              employment for each state-industry combination, resulting in employment 
              attributable to direct exports. Deriving supporting shipments required use of regional multipliers 
              based on I/O Accounts. These multipliers provide a means to estimate 
              resources needed to produce a unit of output. Using the direct exports 
              estimated above and shipments -multipliers yields estimates of the 
              supporting shipments associated with direct exports. Again, employment-to-shipment 
              ratios were used to compute supporting employment for the manufacturing 
              industries. Employment-multipliers were used to estimate supporting 
              employment for nonmanufacturing industries. Back to Top Relationship to Census Bureau's Series on Origin of Movement of 
              U.S. Exports by State Each month the Census Bureau issues a report on the Origin of Movement 
              of U.S. Exports of Goods by State. The data in this series include 
              both manufactured and nonmanufactured products exports. Data are 
              shown for the state where the merchandise began its export journey 
              as reported by the exporter on the export declaration document filed 
              with the U.S. Department of Commerce at the port of export. This 
              series provides data based on the “origin” of the commodity movement 
              into international trade. That “origin” may be the location of the 
              manufacturer, a warehouse, an intermediary who has arranged the 
              sale, an assembly or packaging point, or the port of export. Thus 
              the origin of movement data differ from the estimates in this publication, 
              which solely reflect the physical location of the manufacturer. Back to Top Historical Information This report began in 1960 and measured initially only direct exports 
              and direct export-related employment. In 1976, the program was expanded 
              to encompass analytically-derived estimates for supporting exports 
              and related employment. Users should bear in mind, though, that 
              methodological changes can affect the comparability of these data 
              when making year-to-year comparisons. This is particularly true 
              with respect to these preliminary estimates for 2005 forward and 
              how they relate to previously published years. Back to Top Detailed Description of Census Methods for Preliminary Estimating 
              Procedures The sections that follow describe the methodology used to develop 
              estimates of the employment effects of manufactured exports at the 
              national level and by state. Back to Top **Derivation of Direct Export-Related Employment** Manufacturers reporting in the Annual Survey of Manufactures were 
              requested to: Report the value of products shipped for exports. Include direct 
              exports and products shipped to exporters or other wholesalers for 
              export. Also include the value of products sold to the U.S. Government 
              to be shipped to foreign governments. Do not include products shipped 
              for further manufacture, assembly, or fabrication in the United 
              States. Such directly reported exports understate the true value of all 
              exports because many respondents do not know the final destination 
              of the products produced in their plants. This includes cases where 
              the export transaction is actually arranged by an independent exporting 
              firm (e.g., a wholesaler) or where shipments of the products are 
              made from company-operated warehouses or other distribution points 
              which do not allocate or report the export sales back to individual 
              producing establishments. Back to Top **Estimated value of exports** In order to provide a more accurate measure of the overall importance 
              of exports industrially and geographically, directly reported values 
              from the ASM have been adjusted to include estimates for the unreported 
              exports, including exports of manufactured products by wholesalers, 
              retailers, etc. The values for total U.S. exports of manufactured products are 
              from official export data compiled by the Foreign Trade Division 
              of the Census Bureau based on Shippers’ Export Declarations. Re-exports 
              are excluded from the figures because only domestically manufactured 
              exports are relevant to estimation of export-related employment. Merchandise exports were collected and compiled in accordance with 
              the commodity classifications in *Schedule B, Statistical Classification 
              of Domestic and Foreign Commodities Exported From the United States*. 
              These classifications were rearranged into an export product nomenclature 
              related to the origin of production called the North American Industry 
              Classification System (NAICS). Export data for Puerto Rico 
              and the U.S. Virgin Islands were subtracted from the file. This 
              was done because these areas are not included in the ASM; hence, 
              their removal from the data was necessary to accurately estimate 
              the effects of exports on the domestic economy. By the same token, 
              exports from the United States to these territories were added to 
              the merchandise export data. These adjustments were performed by 
              the Foreign Trade Division. Merchandise export data are collected on an individual commodity 
              transaction basis, while export data in the ASM are collected on 
              the basis of all commodities exported by the industry. To put the 
              two sets of data on the same basis, the merchandise export data 
              from the Foreign Trade Division were converted to an industry basis 
              using the Annual Survey of Manufactures data on the distribution 
              of product shipments by industry. Export data from the Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division are 
              collected at the port of export on a *free alongside ship (f.a.s.)* 
              basis, and thus include freight and wholesale margins. To make the 
              export data comparable with data collected in the ASM, the margins 
              were subtracted to derive a *freight on board (f.o.b.) plant* 
              value. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Input/Output (I/O) commodity 
              margin rates from the I/O tables were converted to industry margin 
              rates and then applied to the merchandise exports on an industry 
              basis to derive the f.o.b. plant value of exports by industry. Survey-based estimates of direct exports at the industry x state 
              level were derived by adjusting the directly reported exports data 
              from the Annual Survey of Manufactures for nonresponse, and undercoverage. Survey-based estimates of direct exports at the industry x state level were derived by adjusting the directly reported exports data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures for nonresponse, and undercoverage Next, differences between the national totals of export shipments 
              obtained from the Foreign Trade Division’s data and national totals 
              of survey-based estimates were allocated to the individual states. 
              At the state level, the differences were added to the survey-based 
              estimates to arrive at state-by-state estimates of the total f.o.b. 
              value of exports by manufacturing establishments. Details of the 
              allocation and estimation methods are provided below. Back to Top **Allocation of unreported value of exports** Differences between the national totals of survey-based estimates 
              and the national export estimates f.o.b. plant were allocated to 
              states on a detailed NAICS level. The estimating procedure assumes 
              that export shipments not reported by manufacturing establishments 
              are directly related to the geographic distribution of the total 
              value of shipments of the industry and export shipments as reported 
              for each state on the ASM. This results in the proportion of the total value of industry shipments 
              accounted for by this state being weighted more heavily when the 
              difference between the survey-based estimate and the national export 
              estimate increases. When the difference between survey-based and 
              national estimates decreases (or vanishes), the proportion of survey-based 
              exports accounted for by the state is weighted more heavily. There 
              are no measures available regarding the possible range of error 
              associated with this estimating technique. Back to Top **Estimating direct export-related employment** Employment related to direct exports is not collected in the ASM. 
              However, the total value of shipments, as well as total employment, 
              are estimated for each industry in each state. Using these data 
              from the ASM, employment related to direct exports was calculated 
              by multiplying the total employment of each industry in each state 
              by the ratio of the estimated total f.o.b. value of exports for 
              that industry in that state to total shipments for that industry 
              in that state. As with the estimates of exports, there are no measures 
              available regarding the possible range of error associated with 
              this estimating technique. Back to Top Supporting Shipments for Manufactured Exports The previous section described how estimates of the f.o.b. plant 
              value of exported manufactured goods were made, were converted to 
              numbers of employees, and how both the value and employment were 
              allocated by state. This section describes how the indirect inputs 
              to these exports were estimated and allocated by state. **Definition of supporting shipments** Supporting shipments refer to all of the inputs purchased by the 
              manufacturing establishments to produce the product being exported 
              and the inputs purchased by these suppliers, etc. As an example, 
              the export value of chemicals in 2006 amounted to $103.2 billion 
              as goods left the manufacturing plant. To produce the $103.2 billion 
              of chemicals, it was necessary for these plants to purchase petroleum 
              and coal products from other plants, various other materials, containers 
              for shipping, electrical energy from utility firms, oil and lubricants 
              for maintenance, a variety of business and professional services, 
              etc. Producers of the various inputs and services which were sold to 
              chemical producers also had to purchase inputs and various services 
              from farms, mines, factories, utilities, transportation firms, etc. 
              These secondary suppliers, in turn, had to purchase inputs from 
              their suppliers. At the aggregate level, this lengthy chain of transactions 
              leading to the production of chemicals is referred to as the supporting 
              shipments for chemicals (or for any other final products). Total 
              supporting shipments are derived by applying regional I/O domestic 
              total requirements tables developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis 
              (BEA) to the products for which a solution is sought. Back to Top **Estimating domestic supporting shipments for manufactured 
              exports** At the state level, the domestic supporting shipments for manufactured 
              exports were estimated by using the f.o.b. plant values of exports 
              which were derived above, together with tables of state requirements 
              multipliers supplied by the Regional Economic Analysis Division 
              of the BEA. Supporting shipments at the national level were calculated 
              using BEA’s national table. These tables were derived from the I/O 
              tables and exclude requirements from outside the region covered 
              by the table. Hence, the national table excludes requirements from 
              foreign sources and each state table excludes requirements from 
              sources outside the state. Estimates of domestic national output required for the value of 
              manufactured exports were derived using the following two-step procedure: Direct exports by detailed NAICS manufacturing industry were 
                multiplied by the total national requirements multipliers to obtain 
                total domestic output required.
              Total domestic output minus direct exports yields total supporting 
                shipments output. Back to Top **Supporting shipments of manufacturing industries by 
              state** The value of state supporting shipments from an industry is the 
              value of shipments from this industry in this state used as inputs 
              to this and other industries during the production of exports or 
              inputs to the production of exports. State supporting shipments 
              were calculated in two phases. In the first phase, intrastate manufactured 
              supporting shipments were calculated for each state using state 
              multipliers. State multipliers were derived from the I/O tables 
              and exclude requirements from outside each state. The estimate of 
              intrastate output required for the value of manufactured exports 
              from a state was derived using state multipliers and the same two 
              step procedure used for the national estimates. In the second phase, the difference between the sum of the intrastate 
              supporting shipments and the national supporting shipments from 
              each manufacturing industry was allocated to states. This difference 
              is the value of inter-state supporting shipments from each industry. 
              The value of inter-state supporting shipments from each industry 
              is the value of shipments from this industry that are shipped across 
              state lines for use by this and other industries in the production 
              of exports or inputs to the production of exports in other states. The value of national total inter-state supporting shipments from 
              each manufacturing industry was allocated to states on the basis 
              of the distribution of available shipments by that industry across 
              states from the Annual Survey of Manufactures. When the total value of supporting shipments from each manufacturing 
              industry in each state was determined, employment associated with 
              those values was calculated. The ratio of total employment to total 
              value of shipments for each manufacturing industry in each state 
              was calculated using figures from the Annual Survey of Manufactures. 
              Next, the value of total supporting shipments from each industry 
              in each state was multiplied by the ratio of employment to value 
              of shipments for that industry in that state to obtain an estimate 
              of the total employment associated with providing those supporting 
              shipments. National supporting manufacturing employment for each 
              industry was obtained by summing the supporting employment in each 
              state for that manufacturing industry. Back to Top **Supporting employment associated with nonmanufacturing 
              industries** The supporting employment in nonmanufacturing industries associated 
              with the production of manufactured exports or of inputs used to 
              produce manufactured exports was estimated by using state total 
              requirements employment multipliers supplied by BEA and the direct 
              export estimates discussed above. These employment multipliers for 
              a given industry in a region show the number of full- and part-time 
              jobs that state industries provide, both direct and supporting, 
              in order for the given industry to deliver $1 million of output 
              to final demand. Direct exports by detailed NAICS manufacturing 
              industry were multiplied by the employment requirements multipliers 
              to obtain export-related employment in nonmanufacturing industries 
              providing inputs to either the production of final goods for export, 
              or the production of other inputs necessary for the manufacture 
              of exports. As was done for supporting shipments of manufacturing industries, 
              these calculations were made at the national level with national 
              exports and national multipliers, and for each state with exports 
              from that state and multipliers for that state. The use of both 
              national-level and state-level multipliers resulted in a difference 
              between the sum of the state employment for each industry and national 
              employment for that industry. Utilizing national export-related 
              employment as the control total for each industry, this difference 
              was allocated proportionally across the states using the initial 
              state export employment data for each industry. On an unadjusted basis, if a state accounted for 10 percent of 
              the export employment, it received 10 percent of the adjustment. Back to Top **Plant-to-port supporting employment** The port value of manufactured exports in 2006 was approximately 
              $809 billion, and it was estimated that the f.o.b. plant value of 
              these goods was $710 billion. The difference of $99.3 billion represents 
              transportation costs of moving these goods (mainly to seaports but 
              also to airports and rail or truck border crossing points) and the 
              margin, or markup of exporters, which is a component of wholesale 
              trade. These costs were split (80 percent / 20 percent) on the basis 
              of the 2005 distribution costs in Table C, “Composition of NIPA 
              Final Demand Rims II Industry Aggregations Final Use Code F04000.” 
              $79.5 billion of the $99.3 billion difference was allocated to wholesale 
              trade and the remaining $19.8 billion was allocated to transportation. Data from BEA on “gross domestic product by industry” were used 
              to calculate ratios of full- and part-time employees (employment) 
              to gross domestic product by industry for “Transportation” and for 
              “Wholesale Trade.” The amount allocated to each industry was multiplied 
              by that industry’s ratio to obtain an estimate of plant-to-port 
              supporting employment of that industry. These national totals were 
              allocated to states using the distribution of employment across 
              states for transportation and for wholesale trade in the County 
              Business Patterns data. The estimate of transportation employment 
              was added to the previously calculated supporting employment in 
              "transportation, communications, and utilities". The estimate of 
              wholesale trade employment was added to the previously supporting 
              employment in "Trade". Back to Top
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