U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-05

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

June 24, 2004

CB-04-103

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

May 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $3.2 billion or 1.6 percent to $189.1 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.6 percent April decrease. Excluding

transportation, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.3 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 12.2 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down two consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $2.2 billion or 4.1 percent to $52.4 billion. 

Computers and electronic products decreased $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $31.9 billion, due to communications equipment. 

Fabricated metal products decreased $0.6 billion or 2.4 percent to $23.2 billion. 

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in May decreased $1.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $194.2 billion. This followed a

0.8 percent April decrease. Year-to-date, shipments for 2004 were 10.7 percent above the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $38.1 billion, due to computer related

products. Machinery decreased $0.6 billion or 2.3 percent to $23.4 billion. 

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in May, up nine of the last ten months, increased $2.3 billion or 0.4

percent to $523.6 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent April increase.

Computers and electronic products, up four consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $134.5

billion. Machinery increased $0.7 billion or 1.5 percent to $47.8 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in May, up six consecutive months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.4 percent to

$268.2 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent April increase.

Machinery, up six consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $43.1 billion. Fabricated metal

products, up four consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $32.2 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in May decreased $0.9 billion or 10.5 percent to $7.3 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.3 billion or 3.4 percent to $8.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $140.4

billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $19.6 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in May decreased $1.7 billion or 2.6 percent to $62.3

billion. Shipments decreased $1.3 billion or 2.0 percent to $61.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to

$225.6 billion. Inventories increased $0.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $106.2 billion.

! REVISED APRIL DATA Revised seasonally adjusted April figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders,

$358.4 billion (revised from $356.9 billion); shipments, $361.7 billion (revised from $361.2 billion); unfilled orders, $521.4

billion (revised from $520.3 billion); and total inventories, $446.2 billion (unrevised).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published July 2, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for June is

scheduled for July 28 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

May Apr Mar Apr - Mar - Feb - May Apr May Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 May 2 Apr r Mar 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 194,164 195,589 197,139 -0.7 -0.8 4.4 194,840 193,538 177,433 956,682 864,428 10.7

 New Orders 4

.............................. 189,120 192,292 197,360 -1.6 -2.6 5.9 188,615 191,302 170,635 951,671 848,207 12.2

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 140,725 142,008 140,975 -0.9 0.7 5.7 139,943 139,554 124,767 680,614 607,439 12.0

 New Orders 4.............................. 136,732 137,672 140,113 -0.7 -1.7 6.6 136,470 136,821 118,767 673,909 586,609 14.9

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 184,370 186,171 187,283 -1.0 -0.6 5.2 185,104 184,601 168,732 908,894 822,694 10.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 180,598 182,968 186,754 -1.3 -2.0 6.6 182,076 182,003 162,479 899,881 797,282 12.9

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 131,858 132,460 132,873 -0.5 -0.3 4.2 132,666 130,776 119,985 647,199 586,752 10.3

 New Orders 4.............................. 134,113 136,235 139,923 -1.6 -2.6 6.1 133,321 135,104 118,805 675,759 598,282 12.9

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 13,308 13,250 13,314 0.4 -0.5 10.5 13,815 13,761 11,326 65,670 56,133 17.0

 New Orders.............................. 13,822 13,341 13,946 3.6 -4.3 9.4 14,254 13,557 11,056 68,962 55,899 23.4

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 22,660 22,644 22,771 0.1 -0.6 10.8 23,029 22,588 20,803 108,935 100,952 7.9

 New Orders.............................. 23,214 23,791 24,228 -2.4 -1.8 10.5 24,041 24,104 21,215 116,593 100,944 15.5

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 23,362 23,916 23,917 -2.3 0.0 6.2 24,327 25,260 21,730 118,071 104,357 13.1

 New Orders.............................. 24,046 24,199 25,216 -0.6 -4.0 5.5 24,898 25,916 20,652 124,123 104,543 18.7

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 38,094 38,750 37,836 -1.7 2.4 1.7 35,575 35,014 31,305 180,967 156,369 15.7

 New Orders 4.............................. 31,874 32,471 33,062 -1.8 -1.8 4.3 29,407 29,680 26,237 154,653 134,540 14.9

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,095 9,068 8,266 -10.7 9.7 1.2 6,669 7,921 6,116 38,495 32,340 19.0

 New Orders.............................. 8,301 8,615 8,018 -3.6 7.4 -1.1 7,403 7,274 7,138 37,809 33,045 14.4 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,991 7,067 6,721 -1.1 5.1 0.4 6,752 6,326 5,554 32,807 28,016 17.1

 New Orders.............................. 6,951 7,946 6,561 -12.5 21.1 -8.1 6,641 7,885 5,979 35,394 33,909 4.4

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 7,299 7,072 6,829 3.2 3.6 1.5 6,880 6,564 5,618 33,571 27,751 21.0

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,795 8,813 8,630 -0.2 2.1 2.0 8,819 8,565 8,361 42,207 40,688 3.7

 New Orders.............................. 9,044 9,390 8,958 -3.7 4.8 1.5 9,132 9,183 8,193 44,147 40,823 8.1

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 53,439 53,581 56,164 -0.3 -4.6 1.3 54,897 53,984 52,666 276,068 256,989 7.4

 New Orders.............................. 52,388 54,620 57,247 -4.1 -4.6 4.1 52,145 54,481 51,868 277,762 261,598 6.2

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 37,681 38,644 40,421 -2.5 -4.4 4.0 39,010 40,218 38,468 200,767 188,362 6.6

 New Orders.............................. 37,803 39,360 40,569 -4.0 -3.0 3.5 38,761 40,722 37,978 201,997 188,188 7.3 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 6,211 5,485 5,880 13.2 -6.7 4.3 6,202 4,801 5,187 27,753 26,490 4.8

 New Orders.............................. 6,188 5,874 6,387 5.3 -8.0 16.1 6,099 4,360 4,214 26,767 21,183 26.4

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,677 3,513 3,958 4.7 -11.2 -18.7 3,530 3,230 3,119 18,369 15,017 22.3

 New Orders.............................. 2,629 2,307 2,541 14.0 -9.2 -29.8 1,980 2,610 4,484 15,174 21,261 -28.6

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 34,506 34,635 34,507 -0.4 0.4 5.9 34,378 34,366 31,242 164,764 148,940 10.6

 New Orders.............................. 34,732 34,480 34,703 0.7 -0.6 7.4 34,738 34,381 31,414 165,431 149,860 10.4

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 69,677 70,674 70,245 -1.4 0.6 1.4 68,234 67,877 61,407 340,025 301,215 12.9

 New Orders.............................. 69,590 72,145 74,113 -3.5 -2.7 3.9 66,825 69,780 61,506 353,392 314,814 12.3

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 61,255 62,532 62,035 -2.0 0.8 3.4 59,840 60,082 53,989 298,888 265,544 12.6

 New Orders.............................. 62,260 63,951 64,726 -2.6 -1.2 6.2 61,213 61,723 54,603 307,622 270,617 13.7

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 58,535 60,204 59,350 -2.8 1.4 3.6 57,031 58,158 51,541 286,916 253,963 13.0

 New Orders......................... 59,346 61,186 62,426 -3.0 -2.0 6.2 58,290 60,192 52,923 297,358 263,390 12.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,422 8,142 8,210 3.4 -0.8 -11.7 8,394 7,795 7,418 41,137 35,671 15.3

 New Orders.............................. 7,330 8,194 9,387 -10.5 -12.7 -9.3 5,612 8,057 6,903 45,770 44,197 3.6

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

May Apr Mar Apr - Mar - Feb - May Apr May 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 May 2 Apr r Mar 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 523,615 521,360 517,585 0.4 0.7 1.4 530,976 530,321 492,209 7.9

 Total Inventories....................... 268,247 267,122 265,607 0.4 0.6 0.4 271,588 269,000 270,686 0.3

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 273,042 269,736 267,000 1.2 1.0 2.3 278,001 274,594 243,184 14.3

 Total Inventories....................... 200,019 198,778 197,619 0.6 0.6 0.6 202,849 200,448 201,767 0.5

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 364,687 361,160 357,291 1.0 1.1 1.8 369,017 365,165 338,473 9.0

 Total Inventories....................... 243,950 242,914 241,289 0.4 0.7 0.4 247,216 244,793 248,033 -0.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 523,615 521,360 517,585 0.4 0.7 1.4 530,976 530,321 492,209 7.9

 Total Inventories....................... 209,181 208,410 207,022 0.4 0.7 0.4 211,517 209,534 212,806 -0.6

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 18,778 18,264 18,173 2.8 0.5 3.6 19,294 18,855 14,225 35.6

 Total Inventories....................... 18,493 18,335 18,053 0.9 1.6 1.7 18,494 18,276 18,717 -1.2

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,604 44,050 42,903 1.3 2.7 3.5 45,679 44,667 36,892 23.8

 Total Inventories....................... 32,177 31,862 31,436 1.0 1.4 0.2 32,490 32,148 31,803 2.2

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 47,827 47,143 46,860 1.5 0.6 2.9 48,934 48,363 42,606 14.9

 Total Inventories....................... 43,087 42,579 42,498 1.2 0.2 0.8 43,490 42,898 42,625 2.0

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 134,486 133,407 132,614 0.8 0.6 1.6 136,413 135,701 124,739 9.4

 Total Inventories....................... 47,336 47,429 47,195 -0.2 0.5 0.8 48,395 47,783 49,229 -1.7

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 7,825 7,619 8,072 2.7 -5.6 -3.0 8,119 7,385 8,829 -8.0

 Total Inventories....................... 5,785 5,777 5,885 0.1 -1.8 -1.0 6,122 5,761 6,529 -6.2 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 51,149 51,189 50,310 -0.1 1.7 -0.3 52,356 52,467 50,640 3.4

 Total Inventories....................... 10,749 10,771 10,567 -0.2 1.9 0.4 10,979 10,822 11,868 -7.5

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,164 14,915 14,338 1.7 4.0 2.3 15,355 15,042 13,927 10.3

 Total Inventories....................... 12,332 12,312 12,335 0.2 -0.2 0.5 12,786 12,707 12,986 -1.5

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 250,573 251,624 250,585 -0.4 0.4 0.4 252,975 255,727 249,025 1.6

 Total Inventories....................... 68,228 68,344 67,988 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 68,739 68,552 68,919 -0.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,776 14,654 13,938 0.8 5.1 1.1 14,850 15,099 11,959 24.2

 Total Inventories....................... 21,135 21,124 21,059 0.1 0.3 0.5 21,304 21,294 20,547 3.7 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 104,326 104,349 103,960 0.0 0.4 0.5 104,085 104,188 106,187 -2.0

 Total Inventories....................... 23,615 23,811 23,610 -0.8 0.9 -1.3 23,868 23,841 26,524 -10.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 56,104 57,152 58,358 -1.8 -2.1 -2.4 57,575 59,125 62,208 -7.4

 Total Inventories....................... 11,480 11,595 11,625 -1.0 -0.3 1.1 11,460 11,542 10,486 9.3

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,183 11,957 12,112 1.9 -1.3 1.6 12,326 11,966 10,795 14.2

 Total Inventories....................... 46,594 46,261 46,102 0.7 0.3 0.2 47,194 46,636 46,407 1.7

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 365,937 366,024 364,553 0.0 0.4 1.1 371,164 372,573 352,310 5.4

 Total Inventories....................... 125,773 125,051 125,015 0.6 0.0 0.1 127,380 125,664 128,695 -1.0

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 225,570 224,565 223,146 0.4 0.6 1.2 228,281 226,908 218,475 4.5

 Total Inventories....................... 106,163 105,547 105,300 0.6 0.2 0.1 107,618 106,082 110,252 -2.4

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 146,774 145,963 144,981 0.6 0.7 2.2 149,726 148,467 137,698 8.7

 Total Inventories.................. 89,140 88,387 88,310 0.9 0.1 0.2 90,586 88,917 91,235 -0.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 140,367 141,459 141,407 -0.8 0.0 0.8 142,883 145,665 133,835 6.8

 Total Inventories....................... 19,610 19,504 19,715 0.5 -1.1 0.1 19,762 19,582 18,443 7.2

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.