UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

AND
STATISTICS
COMMERCE _ wisins..
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i —WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 POR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 April 28, 1999

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB99-82

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(99)-03

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
March 1999
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $3.8 billion or 2.0 percent to $197.7 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 3.9 percent February decrease and is the
fourth increase in the last five months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.5 percent, the first increase since
December. Year-to-date, new orders are 6.1 percent above the same period a year ago; new orders for the first quarter are 3.5
percent above the fourth quarter.

Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $1.6 billion or 3.6 percent to $47.3 billion;
increases in shipbuilding and tanks, motor vehicles and parts, and railroad equipment more than offset a decrease in aircraft and
parts. This follows a 12.8 percent February decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month since December,
increased $1.1 billion or 2.9 percent to $38.0 billion. This follows a 0.6 percent February decrease. Electronic and other
electrical equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $1.0 billion or 3.1 percent to $33.6 billion; led by electronic
components, most industries increased. This follows a 6.7 percent February decrease. Primary metals, down three of the last four
months, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $14.5 billion. This follows a 7.3 percent February increase.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in March increased $2.4 billion or 1.3 percent to $196.8 billion, following a 0.1
percent February increase. This is the ninth increase in the last ten months. Year-to-date, shipments are 4.6 percent above the
same period a year ago; shipments for the first quarter are 0.2 percent above the fourth quarter.

Transportation equipment, up six of the last eight months, had the largest increase, $1.5 billion or 3.1 percent to $49.0 billion; all
categories except aircraft and parts increased. This follows a 0.6 percent February increase. Electronic and other electrical
equipment, up for the first month since December, increased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $32.6 billion. This follows a 1.9
percent February decrease. Primary metals, up two of the last three months, increased $0.2 billion or 1.8 percent to $14.5 billion,
following a 0.6 percent February decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.1
billion or 0.3 percent to $36.6 billion, following a 0.5 percent February increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in March increased $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $503.3 billion, the
third increase in the last four months. This follows a 0.1 percent February decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up four
consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $76.8 billion. This follows a 0.3 percent February
increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four consecutive months, increased $1.0 billion or 1.6 percent to $63.9
billion. This follows a 0.6 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, down six of the last seven months, decreased
$1.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $244.9 billion. This follows a 0.7 percent February decrease. Primary metals, down three of the last
four months, decreased 0.1 percent to $29.3 billion, following a 1.5 percent February increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE_ New orders in March, up three of the last four months, increased $2.0 billion
or 36.2 percent to $7.4 billion. This follows a 32.5 percent February decrease and is the largest increase since the 42.8 percent
increase in September 1998. Shipments, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $6.6 billion,
following a 0.4 percent February decrease. Unfilled orders, up three of the last four months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.8 percent
to $96.7 billion. This follows a 1.3 percent February decrease.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE_ New orders in March, down for the second consecutive month, decreased
$0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $53.5 billion, following a 5.8 fercent February decrease. Shipments, up for the first month since
November, increased $1.1 billion or 2.1 percent to $53.9 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent February decrease. Unfilled orders,
down for the first month since December, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $261.6 billion, following a 0.3 percent February
increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $2.1 billion or 4.5 percent to $47.5 billion, the fourth increase in the
last five months; shipments increased $1.0 billion or 2.2 percent to $45.3 billion, the first increase since December; and unfilled
orders increased $2.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $111.2 billion, the fourth consecutive monthly increase.

© REVISED FEBRUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$343.3 billion (revised from $342.6 billion); new orders, $342.9 billion (revised from $340.5 billion); unfilled orders, $526.3
billion (revised from $524.6 billion); and total inventories, $464.6 billion (revised from $465.1 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published May Sth, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May 26, 1999 at
8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


i

Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Mar, Feb, Jan, Feb.- Jan- | Dec.- Mar, Feb. Mar,
19997 1999" 1999 Mar. Feb/ Jan. 1999? 1999" 1998 | Mar.99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments wees 196,785 | 194,340 | 194,091 +13 +0.1 -0.7 | 212,990 | 195,001 | 205,948 434
New orders : 197,746 | 193,901 | 201°708 +20 39} +31 | 211-779 | 193.897 | 1991682 +61
Unfilled orders 503,309 | 502,348 | $02\787 +0.2 “0.1 +15 | 505;285 | 506;496 | 512,007 13
Excluding defense :
Shipments ............. =] 190,155 | 187,624 | 187,351 +13 +01 -0.9 | 205,927 | 188,254 | 198,824 43.6
New orders 190,371 | 188/487 | 193,690 +10 -2.7 |  +3.0 | 202/846 | 1897322 | 193,031 +51
Unfilled orders °° °° - 406,641 | 406,425 | 405,562 +0.1 +02] +16 | 406824 | 409/905 | 409,235 -06
ith unfilled orders :
Shipments wees 161,259 | 159,527 | 159,916 +11 -0.2 -10 | 174,590 | 157,914 | 170,420 424
New orders 162,220 | 159,088 | 167/533 +20 5.0 | +3.7. | 173/379 | 156,810 | 164,154 +56
Primary metals :
Shipments : seed 14,478 14,226 14,312 18 0.6] +0. 15,198 14,636 16,362
New orders oo 14,452 147655 13,660 “14 +73 -3.0 3,407 16,065 15;576
Untitled orders 22200202! 29/308 | 29,331 28/902 “0.1 : 30853 | 30,644 | 35,674

Industrial machinery and equipment:

Shipments ............-...05 36,589 | 36,704 | 36,513 -0.3 5 43,005 | 35,685 } 43,739 -
New orders. 38,041 36.959 | 37164 | +29 -06 -2:8 | 43,684 | 36,166 | 43,413 +06
Unfilled orders... 2... 76816 | 75,364] 75,109 | +19 +03} +09] 77,113 76,434 | 74,552 +34
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments". . . 32,603 32,202 | 32,830} +12 34,978 | 31,196 | 33,177 +54
New orders. 22... 33,588 | 32/570 | 34,895 43.1 67) 431 33517 | 30327 | 31,333 +70
Unfilled orders ss... :| 63,948 | 62963 | 62/595 +16 +3, 62/417 | 63,878 | 55,982 +S
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 48,979 | 47,500 | 47,236 43.1 +0.6 14] $3,045 50,641 48,839 +86
New orders... pesceees} 47344 | 45713 52/396 +36] 128] +135 | 52283 | 48,045 46,424 +126
Unfilled orders 220222: + | 244943 | 2461578 | 2487365 07 07 | +251 | 246%608 | 247370 | 254/923 “33
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total
Shipments... 60,568 $9,541 59,694 +17 + -15 | 68,703 $6,837 | 66,743 +
New orders oes] 60,884 | 58978 | 64/881 43.2 91 +91 69.425 | 55,715 +8.0
Unfilled orders |): : +s] 358,267 | 357951] 358514 | +0.1 + +15 | 360,425 | 359,703 | 366,580 -
Nondefense :
Shipments... . . sees} $3,938] $2,825 | $2,954 | 42.1 - 5 61,640 | $0,090 59,619 +34
New orders... 53;509 53,564 56,863 01 58 +93 60,492 51,140 37,653, +49
Unfilled orders 2... 261,599 | 262,028 | 261,289 02 + 261,964 | 263,112 | 263,808 0.7
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments | 45,265 44,281 44,409 | +22 -03 - $2,256 | 42,005 51,175
New orders . 47/529 | 45468 | 45316 | +45 +03 39 | 53/801 43,503 50,464 +66
Unfilled orders 111,233 | 108/969 | 107,782 | +2:1 +11 +08 | 111/598 | 110/053 | 106,122 3
Defense :
Shipments .............. 6,630 6,716 6,740 “13 04] 43.0 7,063 6,747 7124 09
New orders 21002200222 7375 51414 8018 | +362 | 325] +76 8/933 43575 6,651 4343
Unfilled orders’: : | : | 96,668 | 95;923 | 97225 +08 13] +13 | 98,461 96,591 | 102,772 42

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-momth variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
response and nonreportng. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations arc contained in our most recent annual
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), "Manufacture's’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

The Capial Gods Indies ince Nondefene + orane and acestrs, steam engines an ines, neal combust engines, cnsction mining and material ding equipment mettwerking machinery, sil nasty
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical ‘a and di equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, tion equipment,
complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank componens, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital goods inclwde : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1998-| Year ago Mar | Mar. 1998-| Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1998-

Mar. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Feb. 1999 | Mar. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Feb. 1999] Mar. 1998| 1994-1998 | Feb. 1999

Durable goods ............ 0.2 03 04 02 06 } 9 0.0 02 04

Primary metals 03 0.7 0.8 1.0 09 23 0.3 04 0.6

Industrial machinery and equipment 02 02 09 04 08 1 Ol 03 04
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . 03 0.2 12 08 0.6 41 04 03 12

Transportation equipment’ ||| |: 03 05 13 0.7 2.1 5.0 ol 03 04

Nondefense capital goods . 02 02 10 08 19 27 01 04 03

Defense capital goods . . 08 06 Ul 3.1 44 163 oul 03 08

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign
for the months specified.