ECONOMICS
AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 10:00 A.M. EDT.
For Data - (301) 457-4673 September 24, 1998
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-182

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(98)-08

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
August 1998
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $3.0 billion or 1.6 percent to $189.4 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.9 percent July increase and is the fourth
increase in the last five months. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.1 percent, the first decrease since May. Year-
to-date, new orders are 4.1 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up for the second consecutive month, had the largest increase, $6.0 billion or 15.1 percent to $45.8
billion; led by aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts, all industries increased. This follows a 1.1 percent July increase.
Primary metals, up for the first month since April, increased $0.3 billion or 2.0 percent to $14.5 billion, following a 1.3 percent
July decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the third consecutive month, increased slightly to $37.5 billion, This
follows a 1.7 percent July increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since May, decreased $2
billion or 7.9 percent to $30.2 billion, mostly due to a decrease in electronic components. This follows a 9.0 percent July incr
Instruments and related products, down three of the last four months, also declined.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in August increased $2.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $188.9 billion. This follows a 0.2
percent July increase and is the third consecutive monthly increase. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.2 percent above the same period
a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up for the first month since March, had the largest increase, $3.4 billion or 8.4 percent to $43.9 billion.
This follows a 0.7 percent July decrease. Primary metals, up for the first month since February, increased $0.2 billion or 1.1
percent to $15.1 billion, following a 0.5 percent July decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down three of the last four
months, decreased $1.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $36.8 billion. This follows a 0.4 percent July decrease. Electronic and other
electrical equipment, down for the first month since May, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $31.0 billion, following a 1.1
percent July increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in August increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $505.0 billion.
This follows a 0.1 percent July decrease and is the first increase since April. Transportation equipment, up for the first month
since April, had the largest increase, $1.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $252.4 billion. This follows a 0.3 percent July decrease.
Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month since March, increased $0.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $73.4 billion,
following a 0.3 percent July decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.8 billion or 1.4 percent to $58.0
billion. This follows a 2.7 percent July increase and is the third decline in the last four months. Primary metals decreased $0.6
billion or 1.9 percent to $307 billion. This follows a 2.1 percent July decrease and is the sixth consecutive monthly decline.
Instruments and related products, down for the seventh consecutive month, also declined.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE _ New orders in August, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.6
billion or 10.7 percent to $4.9 billion, following a 2.2 percent July decrease. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 3.0 percent to
$6.7 billion, following a 3.0 percent July increase. Unfilled orders, down six of the last seven months, decreased $1.8 billion or
1.8 percent to $96.6 billion, following a 1.0 percent July decrease.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August, up two of the last three months, increased $3.9
billion or 7.7 percent to $54.6 billion, following a 0.8 percent July decrease. Shipments, down for the second consecutive month,
decreased $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $51.0 billion. This follows a 2.2 percent July decrease. Unfilled orders, up for the first
month since May, increased $3.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $266.0 billion, following a 0.2 percent July decrease. Excluding aircraft
and parts, new orders increased $0.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $44.1 billion, the third increase in the last four months; shipments
decreased $0.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $43.6 billion, the fourth decline in the last five months; and unfilled orders increased $0.5
billion or 0.5 percent to $104.8 billion, the first increase since May.

@ REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $335.8
billion (revised from $334.9 billion); new orders, $335.2 billion (unrevised from $335.2 billion); unfilled orders, $528.9 billion
(revised from $529.8 billion); and total inventories, $468.0 billion (revised from $468.1 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published October 2, 1998 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled for October 28,
1998 at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Au daly June | July; | June- | May- Au Jul Aug.
199 1998" 1998 | Aug? | July’ | June 199) 1998" 1997 | Aug.98/97
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments... 188,894 | 186,828 | 186,536 | +1.1 +04 158,946 | 178,322 44.6
New orders. < 1893391 | 186.428 | 182/986 | +16] +19] +01 | 184;805 | 162/482 | 182,130 415
Unfilled orders : 504.985 | 504488 | 504'888 | +0.1 + -0:7 | 503.719 | 505,459 | 496,768 414
Excluding defense :
Shipments... 182,204 | 180,335 | 180,232 | +10] +01] +06] 180,100] 153,255 | 172,493
New orders |! 1847456 | 10900 | 177331 | 420] +20 0.0 | 181244 | 1587563 | 178/088
Unfilled orders 408,361 406,109 405,544 +0.6 +0.1 0.7 408,709 407,565 393,461
With unfilled orders
Shipments 156,179 | 156,092 | 155,680 | +0.1 +03] +14] 153,025 | 135,854 | 145,700 +5.0
New orders 156676 | 155.692 } 1521130] +06 | +23] +10} 151,285 | 139390 ) 149,508 412
Primary metals :
Shiprnents a 15,140 | 14,969 | 15,049 | +1. 05] -08 | 15,057 | 13,582 | 15,695 4.1
New orders”. errr 14542 | 14263 | 14453 | 42.0 a3{ 33] 14159 | 12:755 | 15;859 -10.7
Unfilled orders’ |<! 2! lll22] 31703 | 32301 | 33,007 -19 21 “1B | 31190 | 32088 | 32,864 “S31
Industrial machinery and equi
Shipments . teense 36,806 | 37,759 | 37,915 25 -o4| 43.7 | 33,959] 32,204 | 31,849 46.6
New orders". 1 | 37545 | 37/534 | 36,922 00] +17] 419} 347612 | 32;070 | 32/038 +
Uniilled orders’: 73371 | 72632 | 72,857 | +1.0 03} 13 | 72486 | 71,833 289 I
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments ...... a 31,005 | 31,223 | 30,882 o7] +11] +37] 30208] 27,049] — 29,146 43.6
New orders 2000000000002 30196 | 32°780 | 30.07: 79} +90] 432] 28789 | 32181 | 33,634 “144
Unfilled orders’: 38,037 | 581846 | 537.289 1 427] 0-1 591004 | 60/423 | 56,693 4.1

Transportation equipment :

ipments .. . 43,945 | 40,552 | 40,857 | 48.4 7) 62] 4417 | 28,518 | 41,490
New orders : mt 45.774 | 39,782 | 39349 | +15.1 +Ul 72 | 4561 | 271428 | 415026 | +10.1
Unfilled orders | Bilt 252;386 | 250,557 | 251327 | +0.7 20:6 | 251;220 | 250,230 | 242/826
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total:
Shipments . 37,669 | 57.741} $8,709 0.1 -16| +27] 53,997 | 49,945 | 50,196 +76
New orders. | 221: 591486 | 56,175 | 56,708 | +59 709 | +08 | 54551 | 47,642 | 48898] +116
Unfilled orders : | 362:582 | 360,765 | 362331 | +05 +04 |  -05 | 360-227 | 359;673 | 352,530 42.2
Nondefense :
Shipments ......... -. | $0,979} 31,248 | 52,405 05 22| +36] 47,552] 44,254] 44,367
New orders SEL) s4sst | 50%47 | 517053 | #77 08] +04] 50% 3372: 44856 | +13.7
Unfilled orders’! 2! 265,958 | 262:386 | 262987 | +14 202] -0.5 | 265,217 | 261,779 | 249,223
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . vee 43,586 | 44,062 | 45,014 “ll 24 7| 40.620] 37,777 | 38,077
New orders 447135 | 43598 | 4412 | +12 Vg] 43:2] 41,035 | 373383 | 37,620 49.1
Unfilled orders 104;810 | 104.261 | 104,725] +05 04) 4 104,069 | 1037654 | 100,109
Defense :
Shipments ..... 6,690 6,493 6304] +30] +30] 339 6.445, 3,691 5,829 | +106
New orders 2. : 4935 5/528 51655 | -10.7 22] +48 3,561 3,919 43042 “119
Unfilled orders’! 96,624 | 981379 | 997344 -18 10} 06 | 957010 | -97;894 | 103,307 8.0

(NA) Not availble, * Revised.

" Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-lay or calendar-month variation

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage
response and nocreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most revent ants
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and urbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special indust:
‘machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, healing and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and electrical industrial apparatus, co ‘equipmen
Complete aireraft. missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense capital gonds include = ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago ‘Aug. | Aug. 1997-[ Year ago ‘Aug, | Aug. 1997-| Year ago ‘Aug. [Aug. 1997-

Aug. 1997 | 1993-1997 | July 1998] Aug. 1997] 1993-1997] July 1998] Aug. 1997] 1993-1997] July 1998

Durable goods... . 01 03 03 01 03 0.0 01 02

Primary metals... 10... see 03 0: 04 16 07 1.0 04 04

Industrial machinery and equipment... 03 04 07 0.0 05 02 03 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . .. 07 03 08 10 06 02 02 06

Transportation equipment 04 07 14 12 10 ol od 02

Nondefense capital goods . 0.0 03 07 ol 04 0.0 01 02

Defense capital goods 10 07 09 6.0 3.6 03 02 04

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

205 205
New Orders
195 F- - - rr rr rs Shipments || 195
185 185
175 175
165 165
155 L L 1 i 1 1 1 1 L 1 L L 1 155
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1996 - Aug. 1998
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

59 59

New Orders
54] Shipments }| - -- ---- ~~ -- = 5-2-5 e rere ene + 54

gg Lut L i L L n 1 L 1 n i n Li 39

Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1996 - Aug. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.