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FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, TUESDAY, APRIL 2, 2019

MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES AND

ORDERS FEBRUARY 2019

Release Number: CB 19‐43 M3‐1 (19)‐02

April 2, 2019 — The U.S. Census Bureau announces the February advance report on manufacturers’

shipments, inventories and orders:

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $4.2 billion or 1.6 percent to $250.6

billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.  This decrease, down following three consecutive

monthly increases, followed a 0.1 percent January increase.  Excluding transportation, new orders

increased 0.1 percent.  Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.9 percent.  Transportation equipment,

also down following three consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $4.3 billion or 4.8 percent

to $86.0 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in February, up three of the last four months, increased $0.5

billion or 0.2 percent to $258.6 billion.  This followed a 0.4 percent January decrease.  Computers and

electronic products, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $28.0

billion.

DURABLE GOODS – NEW ORDERS

FEBRUARY 2019 $250.6 billion             ‐1.6%°   

JANUARY 2019  

(revised) $254.7 billion             +0.1%°

Next release: April 25, 2019

Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes.

°Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey.  The Manufacturers' Shipments,

Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so the sampling

error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the confidence intervals be computed.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, April 2,

2019.

Mar‐18 Apr‐18 May‐18 Jun‐18 Jul‐18 Aug‐18 Sep‐18 Oct‐18 Nov‐18 Dec‐18 Jan‐19 Feb‐19

% Change 2.7% ‐1.0% ‐0.3% 0.9% ‐1.2% 4.7% 0.0% ‐4.3% 0.9% 1.3% 0.1% ‐1.6%

‐8.0%

‐7.0%

‐6.0%

‐5.0%

‐4.0%

‐3.0%

‐2.0%

‐1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2018‐2019

Seasonally Adjusted,   Month‐To‐Month Percentage Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders,

April 2, 2019.
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Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down four of the last five months, decreased

$3.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $1,177.6 billion.  This followed a 0.1 percent January increase.  Transportation

equipment, also down four of the last five months, drove the decrease, $3.8 billion or 0.5 percent to

$807.2 billion.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, up twenty‐five of the last twenty‐six months,

increased $1.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $418.9 billion.  This followed a 0.5 percent January increase.  

Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, drove the increase, $1.3 billion or 1.0 percent to

$134.1 billion.   

Capital Goods

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in February decreased $5.0 billion or 6.3 percent to $74.5 billion.  

Shipments increased $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $78.9 billion.  Unfilled orders decreased $4.4 billion or

0.6 percent to $705.7 billion.  Inventories increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $183.6 billion.  Defense

new orders for capital goods in February decreased $0.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $12.2 billion.  Shipments

decreased $0.7 billion or 5.3 percent to $12.3 billion.  Unfilled orders decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent

to $156.0 billion.  Inventories decreased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $22.9 billion.

Revised January Data

Revised seasonally adjusted January figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $499.9

billion (revised from $500.5 billion); shipments, $503.2 billion (revised from $503.1 billion); unfilled orders,

$1,181.3 billion (revised from $1,181.9 billion) and total inventories, $686.1 billion (revised from $685.7

billion).

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on April 8, 2019, at

10:00 a.m. EDT.  The Advance Report on durable goods for March is scheduled for release on April 25,

2019 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.  View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room:

<www.census.gov/economic‐indicators/> The full text and tables of this release can be found at

www.census.gov/m3>.

EXPLANATORY NOTES

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation.  Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.  
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“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or

decrease.

Description of the survey  

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories,

and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.  This

survey provides statistics on a calendar‐month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders

(net of cancellations), end‐of‐month order backlog (unfilled orders), end‐of‐month total inventory (at

current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work‐in‐

process, and finished goods).  Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately

5,000 reporting units that represent approximately 3,100 companies and provide an indication of month‐

to‐month change for the Manufacturing Sector.  These reporting units may be divisions of diversified large

companies, large homogenous companies, or single‐unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, which

are combined into 65 publication levels due to the small monthly panel size.  The survey methodology

assumes that the month‐to‐month changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the M3 panel

effectively represent the month‐to‐month movements of all establishments that make up the category.  

The companies for which shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent

approximately 64 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012

Economic Census, and these companies include almost two‐thirds of the manufacturing companies with

$500 million or more in shipments in the 2012 Economic Census.  The companies for which shipments data

are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 57 percent of the total value of

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 Economic Census.  Statistics based on the M3

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing

companies.  The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are

normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured.  Nonsampling errors are attributable to many

sources.  The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is

one source of nonsampling error.  The use of primarily large companies to represent the month‐to‐month

movement of all companies is another potential source.  Any corrections will be published in the full

report.  Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report.  Any

revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication.  Additional

survey documentation can be found on our web site:  

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.
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RESOURCES

API

The Census Bureau’s application programming interface (API) lets developers create custom apps to reach

new users and makes key demographic, socio‐economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever

before.

<www.census.gov/developers/>

NEW TIME SERIES

Beginning with the release of June 2018 data on July 26, 2018, historical estimates of the Monthly Advance

Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders are available on a seasonally adjusted basis

as well as a not seasonally adjusted basis at: <https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/>.   

FRED Mobile App

Receive the latest updates on the nation’s key economic indicators by downloading

the FRED App <https://fred.stlouisfed.org/fred‐mobile/> for both Apple and

Android devices.  FRED, the signature database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St.

Louis, now incorporates the Census Bureau’s 13 economic indicators.

Notice of Revisions and Changes Due to Updated Seasonal Adjustment Models

On May 16, 2019, monthly seasonally adjusted data for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and

Orders, based on the North American Industry Classification System, will be revised for January 2002

through March 2019.  There will be no accompanying press release containing revised seasonally adjusted

data for January through March of 2019, and historical data not seasonally adjusted will be unchanged.   

These revisions to the historical seasonally adjusted data will be based on the results of the recent annual

review of the seasonal adjustment models.  Based on this review, the lists of series that are seasonally

adjusted and not seasonally adjusted will be updated.  Three unfilled orders series and one total

inventories series that have been adjusted will no longer be seasonally adjusted.  Conversely, two stage of

fabrication series that have not been adjusted will now be seasonally adjusted.  These changes will be

implemented on May 16, 2019 and will also be used to produce seasonally adjusted data from the

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey, beginning with the April 2019 Advance Report

on Durable Goods scheduled for release on May 24, 2019 and the full report scheduled for release on June

4, 2019.

###
Table 1.  Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item           Percent

Feb Jan Dec Jan ‐ Dec‐ Nov ‐ Feb Jan Feb Change

2019 2 2019 r 2018 Feb 2 Jan r Dec 2019 2 2019 r 2018 2019 2018 2019/2018

DURABLE GOODS

   Total:               

               Shipments................................ 258,581 258,062 259,199 0.2 ‐0.4 0.7 241,636 233,400 229,193 475,036 449,543 5.7

               New Orders4

.............................. 250,577 254,741 254,449 ‐1.6 0.1 1.3 235,373 231,464 232,972 466,837 447,158 4.4

         Excluding transportation:

               Shipments................................ 168,792 167,977 167,869 0.5 0.1 0.2 155,843 153,891 150,082 309,734 298,214 3.9

               New Orders4

.............................. 164,546 164,417 164,529 0.1 ‐0.1 0.3 155,420 153,522 151,411 308,942 299,349 3.2

         Excluding defense:

               Shipments................................ 244,321 242,973 244,836 0.6 ‐0.8 0.5 228,157 220,999 216,862 449,156 426,269 5.4

               New Orders4

.............................. 236,385 240,897 239,954 ‐1.9 0.4 2.2 223,662 221,085 219,329 444,747 425,457 4.5

    Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

               Shipments................................ 180,111 179,855 180,332 0.1 ‐0.3 0.5 167,168 161,728 158,472 328,896 310,746 5.8

               New Orders.............................. 176,488 180,618 179,639 ‐2.3 0.5 1.3 164,947 164,587 165,720 329,534 316,707 4.1

    Primary metals:

               Shipments................................ 21,401 21,261 21,534 0.7 ‐1.3 ‐1.5 20,450 20,974 19,438 41,424 39,151 5.8

               New Orders.............................. 21,537 21,388 21,781 0.7 ‐1.8 0.0 21,338 21,257 20,441 42,595 40,667 4.7

    Fabricated metal products:

               Shipments................................ 33,991 33,780 33,760 0.6 0.1 1.0 31,760 31,626 29,943 63,386 59,882 5.9

               New Orders.............................. 34,342 34,249 34,401 0.3 ‐0.4 1.3 33,026 33,166 31,367 66,192 62,666 5.6

    Machinery:

               Shipments................................ 33,336 33,315 32,941 0.1 1.1 0.0 31,500 29,872 30,689 61,372 59,229 3.6

               New Orders.............................. 33,158 33,262 32,613 ‐0.3 2.0 ‐0.4 32,181 31,549 32,048 63,730 62,589 1.8

    Computers and electronic products4

:

               Shipments................................ 28,038 27,721 27,729 1.1 0.0 0.1 24,785 24,653 23,009 49,438 46,789 5.7

               New Orders.............................. 23,532 23,609 24,049 ‐0.3 ‐1.8 ‐0.4 21,045 20,240 20,072 41,285 39,429 4.7

         Computers and related products:

               Shipments................................ 1,822 1,784 1,764 2.1 1.1 ‐5.3 1,334 1,407 1,275 2,741 2,744 ‐0.1

               New Orders.............................. 1,814 1,824 1,768 ‐0.5 3.2 ‐8.0 1,326 1,447 1,296 2,773 2,772 0.0

         Communications equipment:

               Shipments................................ 3,828 3,815 3,760 0.3 1.5 2.7 3,158 3,006 2,708 6,164 5,407 14.0

               New Orders.............................. 3,586 3,644 3,548 ‐1.6 2.7 ‐5.5 3,305 2,913 3,275 6,218 6,110 1.8

    Electrical equipment, appliances,    

       and components:                   

               Shipments................................ 11,536 11,460 11,457 0.7 0.0 0.5 10,557 10,317 10,171 20,874 20,022 4.3

               New Orders.............................. 11,495 11,381 11,230 1.0 1.3 ‐0.3 10,769 10,693 10,429 21,462 20,488 4.8

    Transportation equipment:    

               Shipments................................ 89,789 90,085 91,330 ‐0.3 ‐1.4 1.6 85,793 79,509 79,111 165,302 151,329 9.2

               New Orders.............................. 86,031 90,324 89,920 ‐4.8 0.4 3.2 79,953 77,942 81,561 157,895 147,809 6.8

         Motor vehicles and parts:

               Shipments................................ 61,554 61,524 62,170 0.0 ‐1.0 2.1 61,255 56,897 56,744 118,152 108,682 8.7

               New Orders.............................. 61,820 61,888 62,179 ‐0.1 ‐0.5 2.1 62,287 57,200 57,591 119,487 109,364 9.3

         Nondefense aircraft and parts:

               Shipments................................ 13,795 13,362 14,964 3.2 ‐10.7 ‐0.5 11,194 10,265 10,462 21,459 20,088 6.8

               New Orders.............................. 10,185 14,780 13,535 ‐31.1 9.2 35.7 6,395 10,677 10,707 17,072 17,353 ‐1.6

         Defense aircraft and parts:

               Shipments................................ 4,668 5,193 4,711 ‐10.1 10.2 4.5 4,019 3,987 3,979 8,006 7,367 8.7

               New Orders.............................. 4,613 4,500 4,437 2.5 1.4 ‐33.6 3,167 3,904 2,590 7,071 5,329 32.7

    All other durable goods:           

               Shipments................................ 40,490 40,440 40,448 0.1 0.0 0.5 36,791 36,449 36,832 73,240 73,141 0.1

               New Orders.............................. 40,482 40,528 40,455 ‐0.1 0.2 0.8 37,061 36,617 37,054 73,678 73,510 0.2

    Capital goods3

:

               Shipments................................ 91,212 91,418 92,202 ‐0.2 ‐0.9 0.7 82,842 78,681 78,801 161,523 153,086 5.5

               New Orders.............................. 86,698 92,094 91,203 ‐5.9 1.0 2.2 77,276 79,932 83,151 157,208 154,142 2.0

           Nondefense capital goods:

               Shipments................................ 78,947 78,472 79,634 0.6 ‐1.5 0.1 71,097 68,042 68,309 139,139 133,329 4.4

               New Orders.............................. 74,548 79,521 78,396 ‐6.3 1.4 4.5 67,299 69,949 71,269 137,248 135,618 1.2

                Excluding aircraft:

                    Shipments........................... 69,567 69,592 68,928 0.0 1.0 0.1 64,074 62,091 61,921 126,165 121,375 3.9

                    New Orders.......................... 68,873 68,939 68,335 ‐0.1 0.9 ‐0.8 65,274 63,596 64,066 128,870 125,564 2.6

           Defense capital goods:

               Shipments................................ 12,265 12,946 12,568 ‐5.3 3.0 4.8 11,745 10,639 10,492 22,384 19,757 13.3

               New Orders.............................. 12,150 12,573 12,807 ‐3.4 ‐1.8 ‐10.2 9,977 9,983 11,882 19,960 18,524 7.8

r Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.     

1 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of    

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non‐calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading‐day differences, where appropriate,  

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.         2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage, response and

nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.      3 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, and other machinery; photographic

equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer

peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and  control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft;

railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and

boats, and search and navigation equipment.    4 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals.  Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled

orders exclude semiconductor industry data.   

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, February Advance Report, April 2, 2019. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website at

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.  
Table 2.  Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments,  Inventories,  and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item           Change

Feb Jan Dec Jan ‐ Dec ‐ Nov ‐ Feb Jan Feb 2019/

2019 2 2019 r 2018 Feb 2 Jan r Dec 2019 2 2019 r 2018 2018

DURABLE GOODS

   Total:                   

               Unfilled Orders4......................... 1,177,643 1,181,266 1,180,503 ‐0.3 0.1 ‐0.1 1,180,272 1,182,493 1,142,373 3.3

               Total Inventories....................... 418,924 417,596 415,341 0.3 0.5 0.3 422,341 417,304 403,399 4.7

         Excluding transportation:

               Unfilled Orders4

......................... 370,450 370,315 369,791 0.0 0.1 0.2 371,102 367,483 356,054 4.2

               Total Inventories....................... 284,858 284,864 283,986 0.0 0.3 0.5 286,941 284,685 273,057 5.1

         Excluding defense:

               Unfilled Orders4

........................... 980,286 983,841 981,833 ‐0.4 0.2 ‐0.1 983,747 984,200 963,765 2.1

               Total Inventories....................... 391,641 390,289 388,340 0.3 0.5 0.4 394,981 390,133 376,454 4.9

    Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 1,177,643 1,181,266 1,180,503 ‐0.3 0.1 ‐0.1 1,180,272 1,182,493 1,142,373 3.3

               Total Inventories....................... 341,130 340,147 338,328 0.3 0.5 0.4 343,050 339,246 327,407 4.8

    Primary metals:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 31,854 31,718 31,591 0.4 0.4 0.8 32,274 31,386 29,394 9.8

               Total Inventories....................... 36,543 36,676 36,556 ‐0.4 0.3 0.8 36,591 36,790 33,767 8.4

    Fabricated metal products:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 86,950 86,599 86,130 0.4 0.5 0.7 86,370 85,104 80,158 7.7

               Total Inventories....................... 54,761 54,763 54,657 0.0 0.2 0.2 54,896 54,783 51,421 6.8

    Machinery:     

               Unfilled Orders......................... 105,362 105,540 105,593 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.3 106,158 105,477 104,697 1.4

               Total Inventories....................... 70,812 70,904 70,529 ‐0.1 0.5 0.6 71,437 70,697 67,913 5.2

    Computers and electronic products4

:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 117,485 117,610 117,638 ‐0.1 0.0 0.3 117,727 117,425 113,456 3.8

               Total Inventories....................... 43,452 43,326 43,305 0.3 0.0 0.0 43,849 42,875 43,694 0.4

         Computers and related products:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 2,227 2,235 2,195 ‐0.4 1.8 0.2 2,227 2,235 1,906 16.8

               Total Inventories....................... 3,819 3,703 3,772 3.1 ‐1.8 0.9 3,979 3,660 3,841 3.6

         Communications equipment:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 25,986 26,228 26,399 ‐0.9 ‐0.6 ‐0.8 26,147 26,000 25,762 1.5

               Total Inventories....................... 5,562 5,476 5,387 1.6 1.7 ‐0.7 5,676 5,385 5,411 4.9

    Electrical equipment, appliances,    

        and components:                   

               Unfilled Orders......................... 19,364 19,405 19,484 ‐0.2 ‐0.4 ‐1.2 19,543 19,331 19,498 0.2

               Total Inventories....................... 20,002 19,844 19,678 0.8 0.8 1.1 20,215 19,809 18,408 9.8

    Transportation equipment:    

               Unfilled Orders......................... 807,193 810,951 810,712 ‐0.5 0.0 ‐0.2 809,170 815,010 786,319 2.9

               Total Inventories....................... 134,066 132,732 131,355 1.0 1.0 ‐0.1 135,400 132,619 130,342 3.9

         Motor vehicles and parts:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 27,680 27,414 27,050 1.0 1.3 0.0 28,527 27,495 27,189 4.9

               Total Inventories....................... 37,980 37,472 36,929 1.4 1.5 ‐0.2 38,451 37,927 35,978 6.9

         Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 592,020 595,630 594,212 ‐0.6 0.2 ‐0.2 593,801 598,600 590,375 0.6

               Total Inventories....................... 67,863 67,013 66,499 1.3 0.8 0.2 68,684 66,613 66,847 2.7

         Defense Aircraft and parts:       

               Unfilled Orders......................... 81,135 81,190 81,883 ‐0.1 ‐0.8 ‐0.3 81,254 82,106 70,456 15.3

               Total Inventories....................... 13,320 13,322 12,919 0.0 3.1 ‐2.4 13,360 13,278 12,906 3.5

    All other durable goods:           

               Unfilled Orders......................... 9,435 9,443 9,355 ‐0.1 0.9 0.1 9,030 8,760 8,851 2.0

               Total Inventories....................... 59,288 59,351 59,261 ‐0.1 0.2 0.6 59,953 59,731 57,854 3.6

    Capital goods3

:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 861,729 866,243 865,567 ‐0.5 0.1 ‐0.1 862,882 868,448 850,149 1.5

               Total Inventories....................... 206,504 206,042 204,647 0.2 0.7 0.4 207,765 204,596 199,770 4.0

           Nondefense capital goods:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 705,713 710,112 709,063 ‐0.6 0.1 ‐0.2 707,529 711,327 705,101 0.3

               Total Inventories....................... 183,566 183,097 181,993 0.3 0.6 0.5 184,790 181,743 177,195 4.3

                Excluding aircraft:               

                    Unfilled Orders.................... 221,356 222,050 222,703 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 222,050 220,850 218,679 1.5

                    Total Inventories................... 128,089 128,050 127,432 0.0 0.5 0.7 128,765 127,119 122,526 5.1

           Defense capital goods:

               Unfilled Orders......................... 156,016 156,131 156,504 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 0.2 155,353 157,121 145,048 7.1

               Total Inventories....................... 22,938 22,945 22,654 0.0 1.3 ‐1.1 22,975 22,853 22,575 1.8

r  Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.      1

Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of shipments and

new orders include adjusted data for non‐calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading‐day differences, where appropriate, as well as seasonal variation,

based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.         2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors

of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations,

see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.      3 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry,

and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery;

electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and  control instruments;

electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and

supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.    4 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals.  Estimates and percent

changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data.   

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, February Advance Report, April 2, 2019. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website at

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.