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PERMIT No. G-58

PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1997 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY

MANUFACTURERS '

SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES,

AND ORDERS

Advance Report

Regular Report

Report Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m, release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1996 Wed., Jan. 29 Wed., Feb 5
January 1997 Thur., Feb. 27 Thur., Mar. 6
February 1997 Wed., Mar. 26 Wed., Apr. 2
March 1997 Tue., Apr. 29 Tue., May 6
April 1997 Wed., May 28 Wed., June 4
May 1997 Wed., June 25 Wed., July 2
June 1997 Fri., July 25 Fri., Aug. 1
July 1997 Tue., Aug. 26 Thur., Sep. 4
August 1997 Thur., Sept. 25 Thur., Oct. 2
September 1997 Wed., Oct 29 Wed., Nov. 5
October 1997 Wed., Nov. 26 (10:00 AM) Fri., Dec. 5
November 1997 Tue., Dec. 23 (10:00 AM) Tue., Jan 6, 1998



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | witttittia
NI —-WwWSsS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 December 27, 1996
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB96-221
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(96)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GooDs MANUFACT! 'URERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
lovember
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $2.9 billion or 1.6 percent to $171.8 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.5 percent October increase and is the first decrease since
August. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.2 percent, also the first decrease since August. Year to date, new orders are 6.0
percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $2.9 billion or 9.3 percent to $28.2 billion, mostly due to electronic
components and communication equipment. This follows a 16.9 percent October increase. Transportation equipment decreased slightly to
$41.6 billion, with all component industries except aircraft and parts increasing. This follows a 6.8 percent October decrease. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up for the first month since July, increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $31.9 billion. This follows a 1.7 percent
October decrease. Primary metals, also up for the first month since July, increased 0.2 percent to $14.4 billion, following a 1.9 percent
October decline.

@ SHIPMENTS of durable goods in November, up four of the last five months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $170.1 billion,
following a 1.2 percent October decrease. Year to date, shipments are 4.5 percent above the same period.a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $0.6 billion or 2.0 percent to $28.1 billion, the sixth increase in the last
seven months. Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $39.2 billion, due to aircraft
and parts. This follows a 5.1 percent October decrease. Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $15.1 billion, following a
1.3 percent October increase. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $31.8 billion, following a 2.0
percent October decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in November increased $1.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $488.5 billion. This follows
a 1.2 percent October increase and is the sixth increase in the last seven months.

Transportation equipment, up six of the last seven months, had the largest increase, $2.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $248.8 billion, mostly due
to aircraft and parts. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.1 jon or 0.2 percent
to $52.9 billion, following a 7.3 percent October increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month since August, increased
$0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $72.8 billion, following a 0.2 percent October decrease. Primary metals, down for the third consecutive month,
decreased $0.7 billion or 2.3 percent to $30.2 billion, following a 2.0 percent October decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in November increased $3.0 billion or 55.2 percent to $8.3 billion, the fourth
consecutive monthly increase. This follows a 2.0 percent October increase. Shipments, up three of the last four months, increased $0.4 billion
or 7.0 percent to $6.1 billion, following a 6.8 percent October decrease. Unfilled orders, up for the first month since June, increased $2.2
billion or 2.1 percent to $108.0 billion, following a 0.3 percent October decline.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in November decreased $3.7 ion or 7.8 percent to $43.6 billion,
following a 0.4 percent October decrease. This is the third decline in the last four months. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 0.9 percent
to $43.4 billion. This follows a 2.4 percent October decrease and is the third increase in the last four months. Unfilled orders, up four of
the last five months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $251.6 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.6 billion
or 1.6 percent to $37.7 billion, the first decrease since August; shipments increased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $37.6 billion, the third
increase in the last four months; unfilled orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $98.3 billion, the second consecutive monthly increase.

@ REVISED OCTOBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $315.5 billion
(revised from $315.4); new orders, $321.7 billion (revised from $321.3 billion); unfilled orders, $511.4 billion (revised from $511.1 billion);
and total inventories, $437.6 billion (revised from $437.9 billion).

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1997 RELEASE DATES)
Our internet address is http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published January 7, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled for January 29, 1997. This report
is also available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted ‘Not seasonally adjusted’

Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change

Nov, Oct. Sept. Oct.- Sept.- Aug.- Noy, Oct. Nov.
1996? 1996" 1996 Nov.” Oct! Sept. 1996! 1996 1995 |Nov.96/95

DURABLE GOODS
Total:

Shipments see 170,102 168,695 170,705 -12 170,792 172,778 162,097 +54
New orders Scenes 171,757 174,635 173,811 -16 +0.5 +4.5 171,004 180,806 161,978 +5.6

Unfilled orders { ! : : sees 488522 486,867 480,927 +12 +0. 483,905 483,693 445,519

Excluding defense :

Shipments oo 164,032 163,022 164,619 +0.6 -1.0 13 164,529 167,233 156,213 +53
New orders 163,445 169,279 168,562 34 +0.4 +45 162,589 175,946 157,309 43.4
Unfilled orders” 380,489 381,076 374,819 - +17 +h 377,908 379,848 344,764 +9.6
With unfilled orders :
Shipments ........ 138,378 136,713 137,532 12 0.6 +0.9 139,186 138,493 132,517 45.0
New orders ....... 140,033 142,653 140,638 1S +14 +4.9 139,398 146,521 132,398 +53
Primary metals :
Shipments 15,069 14,973 14,775 +0.6 + 0.5 14,890 15,357 14,893 0.0
New orders 14,366 14,342 14,619 +02 “19 3.7 14,062 14,5 15,191 74
Unfilled orders 30,233 30,936 31,567 23 -2.0 0.5 464 29,292 27,328 4.2
Industrial machi ery and ‘equipment:

Shipm 31,773 31,873 32,526 -0.3 2.0 +15 30,547 30,940 29,465
Newrorders | 1964 | 31754 | 32301 403 17 02} 31/450] 31/945 30,970 415
Unfilled orders 72,779 72,688 72,807 +0.1 0.2 0.3 73,588 72, 7

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
ments 28,102 27,551 27,190 0 +13 21 29,232 27,819 27,201 +75
New orders 28,233 31,144 26,640 93 +16.9 +02 28,199 33,561 25,296 +115
Unfilled orders . 52,937 52,806 49,213 + +73 ll 52,501 53,534 50,434 +41
Transportation equipment :
39,249 38,748 40,819 +13 “5.1 42.6 39,934 40,372 38,211 +45
New rorgers. 41,584 41,598 44,637 0.0 6.8 +19.0 42,197 42,702 39,105 +79
Unfilled orders... . . 248,845 246,510 243,660 +0.9 +12 +16 246,886 244.6: 213,502 +156
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :

Shipments on 49,458 48,682 50,162 +16 -3.0 +19 48,819 46,705 46,880 +

orders: 51,943 $2,691 32,764 14 0.1 +14.5 51,767 51,475 48,697 +63

Dated orders ° 359,660 357,175 353,166 +0.7 +11 +0.7 358,166 355,218 323317 &

Nondefense :

Shipments ....... 43,388 43,009 44,076 24 +18 42,556 41,160 40,996 $3.8
New orders + 3,63 7,335, 47,515 -78 -0.4 +154 43,352 46,615 44,028 “LS
Unfilled orders’! 251,627 251,384 247,058 1 18 +14 252/169 251,373 222/562 +133
Excluding aircraft and par
Shipments 37,550 37,411 38,428 0.4 +23 36,769 36,006 35,501 +:
New orders < | 37,656 38,278 37,668 -1.6 +16 42.2 37,428 38,002 36,562 +24
Unfilled orders. 98,309 98,203 97,336 1 0.8 851 8, 96,819

Defense :

Shipments 6,070 5,673 6,086 | +7.0 68] +25 6,263 5,545 5,884 46.4
New orders . 8,312 3,356 5,249 $55.2 42.0 +71 8,415 4,860 4,669 +80.2
Unfilled orders’ : 108,033 105,791 106,108 +21 03 0.8 105,997 103,845 100,755 45.2

(NA) Now available, * Revise.

" Shipmens and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variation

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers” shipments, inventories, and orders are subject w survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverag
response and nonreporting, Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology. and dala limitations are contained in our most recent ast
‘benchmark publication, Current Industrial Repons: M3-1(95), “Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1995."
Te Canal Gods nde ide Noms res anus, am engines and abi, mera amusing. comrcton ing an mail ang pe etaineking tactinry. spel ns
‘general and office refrigeration, eating. and service industry ion and distribution ‘appara,
sro missles, and nn ‘chiles, aicraft misses, and space vehicle engines and pas, ships and tank components, ralroad equipment, ad seatch and navigaon equipment
Defense capital goods include» ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Nov. |Nov. 1095-1 Year ago Nov. ] Nov. 1995-| Year ago Nov. [Nov. 1995-

Nov. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Oct. 1996 | Nov. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Oct. 1996] Nov. 1995| 1991-1995] Oct. 1996

Durable goods 0.0 04 03 05 03 06 02 On 0.1

Primary metals 02 07 4 02 i 0.7 02 05 05

Industrial machinery and equipment . 0.0 09 07 1 12 10 03 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 06 0s os 13 0.5 09 06 02 04

Transportation equipment | 02 06 06 07 06 19 02 02 03

Nondefense capital goods 06 06 06 18 13 14 04 02 03

Defense capital goods 04 08 10 18 20 72 On 0 04

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regarc
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
190 190

New Orders
180 F- ~~ er erred Shipments || 180

170 -=--3170

160

160
150 150
140 1 L i. L L L 1 1 L 1 L L il 140
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1994-Nov. 1996
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
B3F---------- ee ee ee eee ee ee eee ee ee eee New Orders |] 53
Shipments
48F---- 7-7-2 2 eee ee ee ee ee eee ee ee 2 +48

43

38

33 1 1 1 1 L L i L 1 1 1 L L 33
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Nov. 1994-Nov. 1996

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.