UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | «tits.
N —-WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 BURCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela April 26, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95S-83
M3-1(95)-3

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANS ACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
March 1995
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $1.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $164.3 billion, the Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.7 percent February decrease, and is the fourth increase in the
last five months. First quarter new orders are 3.4 percent above fourth quarter 1994 and 11.5 percent above first quarter 1994.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $1.5 billion or 6.1 percent to $26.3 billion, following a
4.5 percent February decrease. The March increase, largely due to communication equipment and electronic components, was the
seventh increase in the last eight months. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.8 billion or 2.7 percent to $32.1 billion;
increases were widespread. This follows increases in February and January of 1.4 percent and 9.1 percent respectively. Transportation
equipment decreased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $40.4 billion, due to aircraft and aircraft parts. This follows a 2.4 percent February
increase and is the second decline in the last three months. Primary metals decreased $0.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $15.1 billion, the
third consecutive monthly decline. Instruments and related products and fabricated metal products also declined.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in March increased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $162.1 billion, following a 0.1 percent February
increase. This is tne fifth consecutive monthly increase and the fifteenth in the last twenty months. First quarter shipments are 3.2
percent above fourth quarter 1994 and 10.5 percent above first quarter 1994. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.7
billion or 2.8 percent to $25.2 billion. Except for declines of 0.5 percent in February and 0.2 percent in January, shipments have
increased every month since October 1993. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $30.4 billion,
due to computer and office equipment. This is the fourth consecutive increase and the tenth in the last eleven months. Transportation
equipment, up four of the last five months, increased 0.1 percent to $40.2 billion. Primary metals increased 0.1 percent to $15.1
billion. This follows a 0.8 percent February decline and twelve consecutive monthly increases.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in March increased $2.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $439.0 billion, the seventh consecutive
monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase, $1.6 billion or 2.3 percent to $71.8 billion; most
segments increased. This follows a 1.6 percent February increase and is the twentieth increase in the last twenty-one months.
Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.1 billion or 2.3 percent to $50.1 billion, due to communication equipment and
electronic components. This is the seventh consecutive monthly increase. Transportation equipment increased $0.2 billion or 0.1
percent to $203.2 billion, the third increase in the last four months. This follows a 0.2 percent February increase. Primary metals
was unchanged at $29.6 billion, following fifteen consecutive monthly increases. Instruments and related products, and stone, clay
and glass products declined.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders increased $0.4 billion or 5.6 percent to $7.2 billion, mostly due to communication equipment. This
follows an 11.2 percent February increase. Shipments were unchanged at $6.6 billion, following a 1.9 percent decrease in February.
Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $112.7 billion, following a 0.2 percent increase in February.

Nondefense - New orders increased $1.3 billion or 3.1 percent to $43.3 billion, following increases of 0.6 percent in February
and 10.7 percent in January. Shipments increased $0.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $41.4 billion, the fifth consecutive increase. Unfilled
orders increased $1.9 billion or 0.9 percent to $205.1 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase and the sixth increase in the last
seven months. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.5 billion or 4.1 percent to $38.3 billion, the second increase in
the last three montks; shipments increased $0.6 billion or 1.7 percent to $36.4 billion, the eighth consecutive monthly increase; unfilled
orders increased $2.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $96.9 billion, the twenty-second consecutive monthly increase.

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published May 3, 1995. The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May 24, 1995. This report is available
on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online information
service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Mi ns of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Mar, Feb Jan. | Feb; | Jan. | Dec. Mar, Feb, Mar.
1995? 1995! 1995 |} Mar? | Feb. Jan. 1995 1995° 1994 | Mar.95/94
DURABLE GOODS
Total =
Shipments 162,107 | 161,230} 161,079] +05} +01] +11 | 173,886 | 161,052 | 158,209
New orders! | 164,267 | 163291 | 164,507 | +06 07 | +h4 | 176,707 | 164,820 | 158:314
Unfilled orders 4381954 | 436794 | 434733 | +05] +05] +08 | 442/518 | 439/697 | 426,855
Excluding defense :
Shipments. . 155,468 | 154,588 | 154,307 2] +0 166,910 | 154,694 | 150,742 | +107
New orders 1. | | 157,021 | 156427 | 1583333. | +04 12] 434 | 167840 | 158:757 | 152.255 | +102
Unfilled orders 326.244 | 324,691 | 322'852 | +05 328122 | 327,192 | 311174 +54
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. . . . os. | 128,735 | 127,873 | 127636 | 0.7] = +02] +1.6 | 138,407 | 128,743 | 125,408] +104
New orders 222222122 130,895 | 129934 | 131.064 | +0.7 09] 419} 141,228 | 129/511 | 125;510 | +125
Primary metals :
Shipments foes 15,143 | 15,129 | 15285 | +0 +09 | 15,864] 15,456 | 12,778 | +242
New orders. 121: nt “{} 13130] 13276 | 15369 0.6 23 “15 | 16735 | 16223 | 14607 | +146
Unfilled orders oo 2 02. :] 291569] 29582 | 29,495 0.0 +E | 31190] 30319] 253395 | +228
Ingustrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments... 02... see 30,449 | 30131 | 29149 | +11 434] +1 35,296 | 29,397 | 30,651 +152
New orders eeeeeenee 32078 | 31242] 3osis| 427] sa] 491 | 35912 | 30.767 | 31311 | +147
Unfilled orders | 22: nt 71/822 | 705193 | 69082 | 423] +16] 425] 71802 | 71186 | 56341 #74
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 25,150 | 24,472 | 24,602 | 428 0.5 0.2 | 26511 | 23,889 | 22,687 | +170
New orders 22220222020 2002 26.283 | 24.782 | 251960] +61 45] +07 | 26,889 | 24703 | 21.796 | 423.4
Unfilled orders 2222022222222 50,073 | 48/940 | 481630 | +23] +06] +29) 50,107 | 49,729 | 46,083 +87
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 40,209 | 40,176 | 40.217 | 0.1] +0. 43,329 | 42,215 | 41,840 43.6
New orders 40,415 | 40.646 06 | #24] -50]} aa’810 | 42%614 | 40242 | +114
Unfilled orders’ | 203:241 | 203,035 | 202,365 0.1 +024) - 204/802 | 203,321 | 213,227 4.0
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 0.2.0... -| 48,059 | 47,592 | 46,634] +10] 421] 4284 53,878] 45.628 | 48,698] +106
New orders 222002222101 50,553 | 48'889 | 47959] +34] 419] 421 | 56.677 | 46,695 | 46332 | +223
Unfilled orders 22.22 317851 | 315357 | 314060] +08} +04] 404] 3191517 | 316,718 | 315,695 +12
Nondefense :
Shipments... 2... 41,420 | 40,950 | 39,862 | +11 427] 422] 46,902 | 39,270] 41,231 +13.8
New orders SILL T] 43307 | aatoas | ans785 | 43.1 40.6 | +107 | 47:810 | 40632 | 40273 | +18.7
Unfilled orders <2 1! fl] 2054141 | 203:254 | 202179 | +09 | 40. 410 | 205121 | 204,213 | 200/014 +26
Exgluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments .. . . 36,369 | 35,753 | 34,885 | +17 25] +15 | 41,232] 34264] 34.997 | +178
New orders 2220221! 38326 | 36.825 | 37-401 | +411 “S| +735 | 42°10 | 35%621 | 36,525] +156
Unfilled orders 225.2 96890 | 94933 | 93:863 | 42.1 Hi] #28 | 96870 | 95;892 | 80111 | +209
Defense :
Shipments ......0....0.. 6,639 6.642 6.72 0.0 19] +69 6.976 6358 7,467 6.6
New orders ee 72246 6.864 6174] +561 +112] 33.0 8,867 6.063 6059 | +463
Unfilled orders 21222. 112;710 | 1125103 | insar | 40.5] +02] 0.5 | 114396 | 112;505 | 115.681 “1

(NA) Not available." Revised.

" Shipments and new orders ate the (tas forthe perisa and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-month variations: unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day oe ealendar-month_variagon:

? paced on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipment and orders are subject 19 survey error and revision, One major component of survey error is nonsampling error. which includes errors of coverage
response and ‘Since the survey panel is nut a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot he calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent ann,
henchmark pu Curtent Industrial Reports; M3-1(92), "Manufacurers” Shipments, tnventivies, and Onders 992."

"The Capital Goods Industries inchude Nondefense < ordnance and avcessories, steam engines and turbines, ineenal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment. metalworking machinery, special indus
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and servie industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipmen
complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense capital goods include = ordnance, communication equipment, witcraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1994- | Year ago Mar. ] Mar. 1994-| Year ago Mar, | Mar. 1994-

Mar, 1994 | 1990-1994 | Feb. 1995 | Mar. 1994] 1990-1994 | _Feb. 1995| Mar. 1994] 1990-1994] Feb. 1995

Durable goods 0. 13 07 19 22 14 02 0. 02

Primary metals 03 05 04 07 20 08 1.0 03 03

Industrial machinery and equipment . 05 07 0.6 29 21 27 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electronic and other

electrical equipment ou Ld 07 03 04 03 0.0 0.0 0.0

Transportation equipment 12 07 08 03 03 04 0.0 0.0 00

Nondefense capital goods 07 13 08 0.0 02 O41 00 0.0 0.0

Defense capital goods 09 13 Lo Ol 02 ou 0.0 0.0 0.0

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders

0 ee 4.175
Shipments

165 165

155 155

145 145

135 135

125 L 1 L i L L 1 L 1 L L L L 125
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar

Mar. 1993 - Mar. 1995

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

4gP--- 7 or ee >] 49
New Orders

oS Shipments |] 44

39 39

34 34

29

29
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
Mar. 1993 - Mar. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonaliy
adjusted current dollars.