ECONOMICS

TES DEPARTMENT OF

UNITED STA AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

f')

BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS

(i

WASHINGTON, DC 20230

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 June 24, 1999

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB99-123

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(99)-05

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
May 1999
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $2.8 billion or 1.4 percent to $197.6 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.3 percent April decrease and is the ninth
increase in the last twelve months. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 6.1
percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.9 billion or 9.5 percent to $45.5 billion; led by aircraft and parts, all
component industries increased. This follows a 12.6 percent April decrease and is the fifth increase in the last seven months.
Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $14.8 billion, following a 1.4 percent April increase. Industrial machinery
and equipment decreased $1.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $38.7 billion, following a 3.6 percent April increase. Electronic and other
electrical equipment decreased $0.5 billion or 1.5 percent to $33.9 billion, following a 0.6 percent April increase.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in May increased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $199.4 billion, following a 0.4
percent April decrease. This is the tenth increase in the last twelve months. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.5 percent above the

same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $48.2 billion; all component industries increased.
This Dollows a 3.1 percent April decrease and is the third increase in the last four months. Industrial machinery and equipment, up
for the fourth consecutive month, increased $0.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $38.0 billion, following a 1.7 percent April increase.
Primary metals increased $0.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $14.5 billion, following a 2.1 percent April decrease. Electronic and other
electrical equipment, up nine of the last twelve months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $33.8 billion. This follows a 2.0
percent April increase.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in May decreased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $498.7 billion,
following a 0.5 percent April decrease. Transportation equipment, down eleven of the last thirteen months, had the largest
decrease, $2.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $235.7 billion. This follows a 2.5 percent April decrease. Industrial machinery and
equipment, up six consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $79.6 billion. This follows a 2.8 percent April
increase. Primary metals, up four consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $30.2 billion. This follows a 1.8
percent April increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up six consecutive months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent
to $65.1 billion. This follows a 1.2 percent April increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in May increased $0.9 billion or 17.6 percent to $5.9 billion,
following a 35.5 percent April decrease. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 2.6 percent to $6.7 billion, following a 2.1 percent
April decrease. This is the first increase since January. Unfilled orders decreased $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $94.8 billion,
following a 1.6 percent April decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE_New orders in May increased $1.5 billion or 2.8 percent to $54.1 billion,
following a 1.3 percent April decrease. This is the fifth increase in the last seven months. Shipments, up for the third consecutive
month, increased $0.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $55.6 billion. This follows a 1.2 percent April increase. Unfilled orders, down for
the third consecutive month, decreased $1.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $257.1 billion. This follows a 0.9 percent April decrease.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $47.1 billion, the first decrease since January;
shipments, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $46.8 billion; and unfilled orders

increased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $112.4 billion, the sixth consecutive monthly increase.

© REVISED APRIL DATA Revised seasonally adjusted April figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $348.0
billion (revised from $347.6 billion); new orders, $345.2 billion (revised from $345.4 billion); unfilled orders, $523.8 billion
(revised from $524.5 billion); and total inventories, $462.9 billion (revised from $463.0 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published July 2, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for June is scheduled for July 28, 1999 at 8:30
‘AM. This report is avaitable on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


iS)

Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted ‘Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
May Apr. Mar. | Apr. | Mar- | Feb.- May Apr Ma
1998" 1955 1995 | May? | Apr’ | Mar 199 19855 1998 | May99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total ;
Shipments . 199,413 | 197,441 | 198,292 | +1.0 04} +20 | 198,976 | 195,021 +74
New orders 197,599 | 194800 | 199366 | +14 23] +29 | 1931673 | 196.379 +75
Unfilled orders 498,727 | 500.541 | 5037182 04 O35} +02 19
Excluding defense :
Shipments. . 192,716 | 190,911 | 191,619] +09 04] 42.1 | 192,477 | 188,868 | 179,436 +73
New orders : 191,706 | 189.788 | 191597 | +1.0 -09 18 | 18 191/338 | 175/969 +74
Unfilled orders 403,958 | 404.968 | 406,091 -02 “03 0.0 408'526 | 409/605 “Hi
With unfilled orders :
Shipments . 164,309 | 162,661 | 162,478 | +1.0 0.1) +18] 161,710 | 157,903 | 151,387 +68
Now orders 202 =] 162;495 | 160,020 | 163;552 | +15 22] +29 | 156,407 | 159:261 | 145,743 +73
Primary metals :
Shipments 14,465 14204 | 14,505 +18 2.1 +2.0 14,845 14,712 15,551 “45
New orders: i So} 143837 14.739 14539 | +0.7 +14 04] 14.738 15,053 14642 +0.7
Unfilled orders 30,220 | 29/848 | 297313. | +12 +18] +01 30,989 | 31,096 | 34,243 95
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 37,997 | 37,596 | 36972 | +14 +17 6 | 36928 | 36,051 35,449 +4
New orders : 38.727 | 391737 | 38338 25 +36| +35 | 37617] 38,013 | 34/900 +78
Unfilled orders 79.627 | 78,897 | 76756 | +09 +28 79.669 | 78,980 | 73.816 +79
Electronic and other
electrical equipmen:
Shipments. : soe 33,848 | 33,689 | 33,032 | +05 42.0] 425] 32,359] 31,058 +134
New orders 33,948 | 34:465 | 34.264 -15 +06] +49] 30362 | 35,463 +122
Unfilled orders 65119 | 65,019 | 64243. | +0.2 +12] 420] 657080 | 67,073 +114
Transportation equipment :
Shipments. . | 48174] 47,733 | 49,267 | +0.9 31] 43.7] 49,884] 49,667 | 45,533 +9.6
New orders 451493 | 41550 | 47558] 495] 126] +47 | 45983 | 43577 | 43,200 +6.2
Unfilled orders 222222: 235:720 | 238;401 | 2447575 “hi 25 -0.7 | 236344 | 240,245 | 253/445 -67
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 62,252 | 61,396 | 60,890 | +14 +08] +23 $7,132 | 34,216 +93
New orders 2 :| 391975 | 57637 | 61068 | +41 36] +40] 3 53,700 | _52/087 +72
Unfilled orders 351,887 | 354,164 | 357,923 06 Al 0.0 | 353147 | 356577 | 365;367 33
Nondefense :
Shipments $5,555 | $4,866 | $4,217 +13 +12] 427] $2,755 50,979 | 47,843 +103
New orders : 54/082 | 52/625 | 53,299 | +28 “13 +01 31:209 | 48,659 | _47'891 469
Unfilled orders 257,118 | 258,501 | 260/832 -0.6 09 -04 | 257,293 | 2581839 | 264/409 27
Excluding aireraft and parts :
Shipments 46,824 | 46,172 | 45,653 +11 32] 44474 | 42.331 40,601 49.5
New orders oor 47103 | _47;560 | 47301 -10| +05] +439 43,640 | 40.473 +104
Unfilled orders : 1123391 | 112;112 | 110,724 M13] ES | i888) | 193860 | 108599 +68
Defense :
Shipments cee 6,697 6,530 6,673 +26 21 -0.8 6,499 6373 42.0
New orders 5,893 5,012 7769 | +176] -35:5] +413 4.615 47196 | +10.0
Unfilled orders 2222202222 94769 | 95,573 | 97,091 08 16} 0 +11 95.854 100,958 “5

(NA) Not availble. * Revised.

" Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and are no adjusted tor trading-Jay or calendar-month_ variations

" Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision, One major component of survey ertar 1s aonsampling error, which includes errors af coverage,
response und noneeporting. Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling eror cannit be calculated. Further details un survey design, methodology, and data limitations afe contained in wur most revent ann
henchmatk publication, Current Industrial Reports; M3-1(96), "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metabworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipmen, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
‘complete aircraft, missiles, and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and savigation equipment

Defence capital goods include = ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, unis und tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago May | May 1998-| Year ago May | May 1998-] Year ago May | May 1998-

May 1998 | 1994-1998 | Apr. 1999 || May 1998 | 1994-1998 | Apr. 1999|_ May 1998] 1994-1998 | _ Apr. 1999

Durable goods wae 04 02 0.6 07 04 2.2 OL 0.1 04

Primary metals . . . 0.5 03 10 0.6 07 23 0.1 03 08

Industrial machinery and equipment 0.3 07 09 0.6 09 1.0 0.0 02 0.5
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 02 04 14 22 1.0 44 Ld 04 Md

Transportation equipment 1S 0.6 2.0 0.5 14 6.2 0.0 OL 0.5

Nondefense capital goods 02 o4 ld 0.6 07 2.7 0.2 Ol 03

Defense capital goods 0.6 04 Ld 2.5 14 0.2 0.2 1.0

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign,
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
215 215

New Orders
205 Shipments |-] 205
195 195
185 185
175 175
165 i 1 1 L J. 1. 1 L 1 1 n 1 1 165
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
May. 1997 - May. 1999
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
59 59

New Orders

54f| Shipments | ----------------------- <4 54
49F-------2%---- +449
cs 444
39 1 1 L L i L L 1 L i 1 1 i 39

May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

May. 1997 - May. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars