13C -i 

### A PPENDIX 13 C. INPV RESULTS UNDER THE ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY

SCENARIO

TABLE OF CONTENTS

13C.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 1

13C.2 IMPACTS ON INDUSTRY NET PRESENT VALUE ................................................... 1

LIST OF TABLES

Table 13C.2.1 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent

Lamp Ball asts

— Two -Tier Markup, Existing Technologies, and Roll-up Shipment

Scenario

................................ ................................ ............................................................... 1

Table 13C.2.2 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent

Lamp Ballasts

— Two

- Tier Mark up, Existing Technologies, and Shift Shipment Scenario 2

Table 13C.2.3 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent

Lamp Ballasts

— Two -Tier Markup, Emerging Technologies, and Roll-up Shipment

Scenario

................................ ................................ ............................................................... 2

Table 13C.2.4 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent

Lamp Ballasts

— Two -Tier Markup, Emerging Technologies, and Shift Shipment

Scenario

................................ ................................ ............................................................... 2

Table 13C.2.5 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent

Lamp Ballasts —Preservation of Operating Profit Markup, Existing Technologies, and

Roll-up Shipment Scenario ................................................................................................. 3

Table 13C.2.6 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent

Lamp Ballasts — Preservation of Operating Profit Markup, Existing Technologies, and

Shift Shipment Scenario ..................................................................................................... 3

Table 13C.2.7 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent

Lamp Ballasts — Preservation of Operating Profit Markup, Emerging Technologies, and

Roll-up Shipment Scenario ................................................................................................. 3

Table 13C.2.8 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent

Lamp Ballasts — Preservation of Operating Profit Markup, Emerging Technologies, and

Shift Shipment Scenario ..................................................................................................... 413C -1 

### APPENDIX 13C INPV RESULTS UNDER THE ADVANCED T ECHNOLOGY

SCENARIO

13C.1 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this appendix is to demonstrate the impacts on industry net present value

(INPV) f or fluorescent lamp ballasts under the advanced technology scenario. As described in

appendix 5F, the advanced technology scenario assumes that manufacturers have the capability

to redesign certain representative ballast types to be more efficient than the ballasts currently

available in the market. Under the advanced technology scenario, shipments exist at higher

efficiency levels with higher manufacturer production costs (MPCs) for the instant start (IS) and

rapid start (RS) product class, thereby yielding different INPV impacts. DOE analyzes four TSLs

under this scenario rather than the three TSLs analyzed in the notice of proposed rulemaking

(NOPR) that was published in the Federal Register . The assumptions and methodology for the

advanced technology scenario are described in appendix 5F.

13C.2 IMPACTS ON INDUSTRY NET PRESENT VALUE

DOE used the same methodology described in chapter 13 to develop INPV results under

the advanced technology scenario as under the scenarios presented in the NOPR. As in chapter

13, DOE presents results for all eight combinations of technology scenarios, markup scenarios,

and shipment scenarios. These INPV results for the advanced technology sc enario are presented

in Table 13C.2.1 through Table 13C.2.8 below.

Table 13C.2.1 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

— Two

- Tier Marku p, Existing Technologies, and Roll- up

Shipment Scenario

Units Bas e Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4

INPV 2009$ Millions 1,244 1,095 960 868 899

Change in INPV 2009$ Millions

- (149.0) (284.0) (375.9) (344.7)

(%)

- - 12.0%

- 22.8%

- 30.2%

- 27.7%

Product Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 5 24 57 68

Capi tal Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 11 25 34 37

Total Investment Required 2009$ Millions

- 17 49 91 10513C -2 

### Table 13C.2.2 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts— Two

- Tier Markup, Existing Technologies, and Shift Shipment

Scenario

Units Base Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4

INPV 2009$ Millions 1,244 1,614 1,111 926 899

Change in INPV 2009$ Millions

- 370.4 (132.6) (317.5) (344.7)

(%)

- 2 9.8%

- 10.7%

- 25.5%

- 27.7%

Product Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 5 24 57 68

Capital Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 11 25 34 37

Total Investment Required 2009$ Millions

- 17 49 91 105



### Table 13C.2.3 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

— Two -Tier Markup, Emerging Technologies, and Roll- up

Shipment Scenario

Units Base Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4

INPV 2009$ Millions 855 742 637 569 586

Change in INPV 2009$ Millions

- (112.7) (218.1) (285.8) (269.3)

(%)

- - 13.2%

- 25.5%

- 33.4%

- 31.5%

Product Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 5 24 57 68

Capital Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 11 25 34 37

Total Investment Required 2009$ Millions

- 17 49 91 105



### Table 13C.2.4 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

— Two

- Tier Markup, Em erging Technologies, and Shift

Shipment Scenario

Units Base Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4

INPV 2009$ Millions 855 1,086 725 602 586

Change in INPV 2009$ Millions

- 230.8 (129.9) (252.7) (269.3)

(%)

- 27.0%

- 15.2%

- 29.5%

- 31.5%

Product Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 5 24 57 68

Capital Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 11 25 34 37

Total Investment Required 2009$ Millions

- 17 49 91 10513C -3 

### Table 13C.2.5 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts— Preservation of Operating Profit Markup

, Existing

Technologies, and Roll- up Shipment Scenario

Units Base Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4

INPV 2009$ Millions 1,244 1,232 1,194 1,148 1,124

Change in INPV 2009$ Millions

- (11.2) (49.7) (95.5) (119.7)

(%)

- - 0.9%

- 4.0%

- 7.7%

- 9.6%

Product Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 5 24 57 68

Capital Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 11 25 34 37

Total Investment Required 2009$ Millions

- 17 49 91 105



### Table 13C.2.6 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

— Preservation of Operating Profit Markup

, Existing

Technologies, and Shift Shipment Scenario

Units Base Case Trial Standard L evel

1 2 3 4

INPV 2009$ Millions 1,244 1,224 1,192 1,147 1,124

Change in INPV 2009$ Millions

- (19.4) (51.5) (96.8) (119.7)

(%)

- - 1.6%

- 4.1%

- 7.8%

- 9.6%

Product Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 5 24 57 68

Capital Conversion Costs 200 9$ Millions

- 11 25 34 37

Total Investment Required 2009$ Millions

- 17 49 91 105



### Table 13C.2.7 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

— Preservation of Operating Profit Markup , Emerging

Technologies, and Roll- up Shipment Scenario

Units Base Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4

INPV 2009$ Millions 855 844 810 774 755

Change in INPV 2009$ Millions

- (11.5) (44.6) (81.1) (100.0)

(%)

- - 1.3%

- 5.2%

- 9.5%

- 11.7%

Product Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 5 24 57 68

Capital Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 11 25 34 37

Total Investment Required 2009$ Millions

- 17 49 91 10513C -4 

### Table 13C.2.8 Advanced Technology Scenario Manufacturer Impact Analysis for

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

— Preservation of Operating Profit Markup , Em erging

Technologies, and Shift Shipment Scenario

Units Base Case Trial Standard Level

1 2 3 4

INPV 2009$ Million s 855 839 809 773 755

Change in INPV 2009$ Millions

- (16.5) (45.6) (81.6) (100.0)

(%)

- - 1.9%

- 5.3%

- 9.5%

- 11.7%

Product Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 5 24 57 68

Capital Conversion Costs 2009$ Millions

- 11 25 34 37

Total Investmen t Required 2009$ Millions

- 17 49 91 105