UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

AND
COMMERCE | atkins
ADMINISTRATION
aS =A BUREAU OF THE
5 SS === WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 October 25, 1996
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB96-183
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(95)-9

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
September 1996
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $7.7 billion or 4.6 percent to $174.1 ion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 3.5 percent August decrease and is the largest increase since
December 1992. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent, the fifth increase in the last six months. Year to date, new orders
are 5.9 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $6.6 billion or 17.5 percent to $44.1 billion, with over half the increase due to aircraft and
parts. This is the first increase since May and the third this year. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four months,
increased $0.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $27.1 billion, due to communication equipment. This follows a 5.2 percent August decrease. Industrial
machinery and equipment decreased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $32.1 b This follows a 0.8 percent August decrease and four
consecutive monthly increases. Primary metals, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $14.9 billion,
following a 4.0 percent August decline.

P

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in September, up for the third consecutive month, increased $2.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $170.8
billion, following a 0.4 percent August increase. Year to date, shipments are 4.4 percent above the same period last year.

Transportation equipment, up for the third consecutive month, had the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 3.0 percent to $41.0 billion; led by
motor vehicles and parts, all component industries except aircraft and parts increased. This follows a 1.3 percent August increase. Electronic
and other electrical equipment increased $0.5 billion or 1.7 percent to $27.1 billion, the fourth increase in the last five months. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up four of the last five months, increased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $32.4 billion, following a 1.2 percent August
increase. Primary metals, down four of the last five months, decreased 0.2 percent to a3 billion, following a 1.6 percent August decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in September increased $3.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $481.2 billion. This follows
a 0.4 percent August decrease and is the fourth increase in the last five months.

Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $3.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $242.9 billion, due to aircraft
and parts. This follows a 0.9 percent August decline. Primary metals, up for the sixth consecutive month, increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent
to $31.8 billion, following a 1.0 percent August increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to
$49.9 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since June, decreased
$0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $72.7 billion, following a 0.4 percent August increase.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in September increased $0.4 billion or 7.9 percent to $5.3 billion, the fourth
increase in the last five months. This follows a 2.0 percent August increase. Shipments, also up four of the last five months, increased $0.1
billion or 1.6 percent to $6.0 billion, following a 3.6 percent August increase. Unfilled orders, down for the third consecutive month,
decreased $0.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $106.2 billion, following a 1.0 percent August decline.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in September increased $5.8 billion or 14.1 percent to $47.0 billion,
following a 10.4 percent August decline. This is the second increase in the last three months and the largest since the 14.4 percent February
1993 increase. Shipments increased $0.7 billion or 1.6 percent to $44.0 billion. This follows a 2.3 percent August increase and is the fourth
increase in the last five months. Unfilled orders, up two of the last three months, increased $3.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $246.6 billion.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.1 billion or 3.1 percent to $38.0 billion, the third increase in the last four months;
shipments increased $0.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $38.3 billion, the fourth increase in the last five months; unfilled orders decreased $0.4
billion or 0.4 percent to $97.7 billion, the second consecutive monthly decline and the sixth in the last seven months,

@ REVISED AUGUST DATA Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $312.9 billion
(revised from $312.6 billion); new orders, $310.7 billion (revised from $311.1 billion); unfilled orders, $501.9 billion (revised from $502.6
billion); and total inventories, $435.6 billion (unrevised).

Beginning November 15, 1996, this document will not be available on CENDATA, FASTFAX or the CENSUS/BEA forum. This document and
future releases can be retrieved from the Census Bureau’s World-Wide-Web site: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published November 1, 1996. The advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled for November 27, 1996. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Sept: Aug. July Aug. July- June- Sept (338i Sept,
1996: 1996" 1996 Sept? Aug. July 1996? 1996" 1995 |Sept.96/95,
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments . see 170,800 168,495 167,774 +14 +04 +0.5 183,261 166,547 173,496
New orders. . see 174,064 166,356 172,402 +46 35 +14 182,450 162,757 172,768 +5.6
Unfilled orders + see 481,150 477,886 480,025 +0.7 0.4 +10 476,174 476,985 442,559
Excluding defense
Shipments . 164,777 162,564 162,04" +14 +0. 40.8 176,693 160,752 166,947
New orders 168,773 161,454 167,597 +45 3.7 43.5 176,931 158,928 165,691 +6.8
Unfilled orders 374,930 370,934 372,044 +L - +S 371,637 371,399 340,233
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. 137,461 136,328 135,486 +0.8 +0.6 0.1 149,108 134,543 142,051 +5.0
New orders 140,725 134,189 140,114 +49 42 i 148,297 130,753 141,323 +49
Primary metals :
14,813 14,842 15,083 1.6 15,265 14,886 15,753
14,907 15,161 15,799 17 4.0 +16 14,325 14,774 14,863 3.6
31,804 31,710 31,391 +10 30,246 31,186 27,160 +114
32,403 32,023 31,657 +12 0.9 35,521 29,969 33,062 +
. . see 32,054 32,343 32,591 0.9 -0.8 42.8 34,707 30,251 32,621 +64
Unfilled orders’: : vee 72,686 73,035 RNS 05 +13 71,586 ‘ 69,754
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments sees 27,073 26,614 26,582 +01 -14 30,234 26,074 28,989 +43
New orders . 27,135 26,620 28,074 +19 5.2 +49 28,777 25,809 27,674 +4.0
Unfilled orders . . 49,872 49,810 49,804 0.0 43.1 48,886 50,343 49,437 “hd
Transportation equipment : :
40,983 39,778 39,268 43.0 +13 +16 42,636 38,837 39,789 47.2
Ree orders bee 44,073 37,507 41,125 +17.5 8.8 “Ls 45,152 35,843 43,121 +4.7
Unfilled orders . 242,929 239/839 242,110 +13 0.9 8 241460 2381944 212,429 +137
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total :
Shipments bee eee ee 50,001 49,209 48,036 +16 +24 a 55,606 46,397 52,335
New orders, Fees 32,270 46,069 50,740 +135 9.2 0.6 56,830 42,269 55,743 42.0
Unfilled orders see oe 352/861 350,592 353,732 +0.6 - 8 350,024 348;800 320,290
Nondefense :
Shipments 43,978 43,278 42,309 +16 +23 -16 49,038 40,602 45,786 7.
orders: 46,979 41,167 45,935 +141 10.4 +7.0 51311 38,440 48,666 +5.4
Unie’ orders . 246,641 243,640 245,751 +12 0.9 +15 245,487 243.214 217,964 +12.
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments + 38,347 37,537 37,158 +10 42,981 35,233 40,186 +7.
New orders 22222 oo 37,978 36,841 38,759 43.1 49 437 41,884 34,486 40,371 +37
Unfilled orders . . bee 97,748 98,117 98,813 0.4 0.7 96,594 97,691 94,877 +18
Defense : 2
6,023 5,931 5,727 +16 +3.6 <7.7 6,568 5,795 6,549 +03
orders... 5,291 4,902 4,805 +79 +2.0 40.7 5,519 3,829 7,077 22.0
Dattied orders see 106,220 106,952 107,981 0.7 10 0.8 104,537 105,586 102,326 42.2

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

" Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for tading-day or calendar-month variation

2 aed on sane sample, timate of mamfacurs’ shipments, vests an oir ae eu to sey ei and cevion. Ow mar comport of sey eo nonsampling ror, which inde errs of aver
response and nonreporting. "Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Funber details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in Our most recent ann
‘benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(95), “Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1995."

The Capital Goods Industries incide Nondeemse = ordnance and acessories, steam engines and ins, ira! combustion engines, cnstrton mining and material nding equpmet, metalworking machinery. spec inst

7 general industrial a and office tefrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical ansmission and. apparatus, equipmen
‘complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.
Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Sept. [Sept. 1995- | Year ago Sept. | Sept. 1995-| Year ago Sept. [Sept. 1995-

Sept. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Aug. 1996 | Sept. 1995] 1991-1995 |_Aug. 1996] Sept. 1995| 1991-1995 | Aug. 1996

Durable goods . o1 02 03 On 05 06 0.0 01 0.1

Primary metals . . | oa 05 03 13 07 03 03 04

Industrial machinery and equipment . 07 07 07 07 12 10 00 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . .. 02 0s 0s 02 17 08 02 04 03

Transportation equipment’: 03 07 06 02 13 18 0.0 O1 03

Nondefense capital goods ....... 03 07 06 ou 23 13 0.0 03 03

Defense capital goods... : 05 U6 Ul 35 32 69 0.0 ou 04

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
4

fae thn month enna



Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

190 1390
New Orders

180 F- - - = rr rr tr Shipments |-] 180

170 170

160 160

150 150

140 L il 1 . L 1 1 1 1 i il 1 L. 140

Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1994- Sep. 1996

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

53

48

Fort et tr re New Orders |-{ 53
Shipments
P-- -- - 2-2-2 2 2 eee ee ee ee ee 2 2 SSS +48

33

L 1 L nl L L L L n 1 n L n

33
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep

Sep. 1994- Sep. 1996

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.