= ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE
WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 September 29, 1999
For Questions - Frances Porter or Lee Wentela CB99-187

(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4832

M3-1(99)-08

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
August 1999
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $1.8 billion or 0.9 percent to $206.9 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 4.0 percent July increase and is the twelfth
increase in the last fifteen months. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 7.0
percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, led by aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts, had the largest increase, $2.2 billion or 4.6
percent to $49.4 billion. This is the fourth consecutive increase. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.8 billion or 2.0
percent to $39.5 billion. Primary metals, down for the first time since March, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $15.4
billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased 0.1 percent to $37.6 billion.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in August increased $2.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $205.5 billion, following a 0.9
percent July increase. This is the thirteenth increase in the last fifteen months. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.6 percent above the

same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, led by aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts, had the largest increase, $2.5 billion or 5.2

ercent to $51.3 billion. This is the largest increase since August 1998. Primary metals, up four consecutive months, increased
80.9 billion or 1.4 percent to $15.1 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $39.1
billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first time since February, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to
$35.0 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in August increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $497.5 billion,
following a 0.4 percent July increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up nine consecutive months, had the largest
increase, $2.6 billion or 3.8 percent to $71.3 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, up eight of the last nine months,
increased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $79.4 billion. Primary metals, up seven consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 1.0
perce $31.8 billion. Transportation equipment, down fourteen of the last sixteen months, decreased $1.9 billion or 0.8 percent
to -2 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in August decreased $1.3 billion or 20.5 percent to $5.1 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $6.5 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $92.4
billion. This is the fifth consecutive decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August increased $2.0 billion or 3.6 percent to $57.0
billion. Shipments, up five of the last six months, increased $1.5 billion or 2.6 percent to $57.6 billion. Unfilled orders, down for
the sixth consecutive month, decreased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $251.0 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
decreased $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $48.4 billion; shipments, down for the first time since February, decreased $0.4 billion or
0.8 percent to $48.4 billion; and unfilled orders decreased slightly to $109.9 billion.

© REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $356.7
billion (revised from $356.4 billion); new orders, $359.3 billion (revised from $358.5 billion); unfilled orders, $520.6 billion
(revised from $520.1 billion); and total inventories, $465.0 billion (revised from $464.9 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published October 6, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled for October 27,
1999 at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)
Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Aug. Jul June June- | May- Aug, Jul Au
1995 1993" 1999 July’ } June 1995? 1999" 1998 | Aug.99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments 205,463 | 202,820 | 200990 | +13 +09 10.8 +8.9
New orders 2 205,039 | 197/084 40.9 +40] +02 +96
Unfilled orders 496.107 | 493.888 +03 10.4 0.8 “13
Excluding defense :
Shipments 198,965 194,712 +14 40.8] +10] 196,362 | 165,189 | 179,596 3
New orders 201,718 191.875 +16 435] 40.7 | 199,647 | 1731184 | 181,767 49.8
Unfilled orders 405,071 399°982 +07 +06 “0.7 | 407146 | 403:861 | 409%845 -
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 168,521 | 166,079 | 163,833 +15 +14 165,007 | 144,131 | 152,886 +79
New orders 169,915 | 168,298 | 159927} +10 $5.2 165,622 | 151:442 | 152,169 +88
Primary metals :
Shipments 14677 | +14 +12] +10 15,136 14,961 +12
lew orders 15,206 “17 +29] 427 15.219 14,148 476
Unfilled orders 307669 +10 +26] +18} 31,627 31275 +l
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 39,088 37,308 09 45.7 -0.6 | 36,517 34,028
New orders 39.452 36.435 2.0 | +10.5 “3.6 | 36,832 34.642 +63
Unfilled orders 701437 78.236 +0.5 +1 “U 78.846 72/505 48.7
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 35,006 | 35,108 | 34,196 -03 427] 411 33,748 30,345 +112
New orders || | - | 37.639 | 371670 | 351158 “0.1 ‘71 432] 37144 29°587 +255
Unfilled orders : 71340 | 68,707 | 66.145 | +3.8 439] 415 | 73/435 597696 | +23.0
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 51316 | 48,775 | 49,78) +52 20{ +18] 31399] 32,701 | 44,265 +161
New orders 49377 | 47194 | 46, +46 420] +1 48482 | 31.084 | 45,717 +6.0
Unfilled orders 2281225 | 230,164 | 231.745 08 0.7 -1s | 227/240 | 230157 | 251,682 9.7
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 42.2 $3.2 24] 60,172 | $4,389 285 +10.8
New orders aa +95 “49 867 | 52/876 341 +28
Unfilled orders 06 03 13 344'840 | 360.787 33
Nondefense :
Shipments 37,582 $4472 | +26 +3.0 “19 47,823 +12.8
New orders | 57,024 50948 | +36 +8.0 39 51,767 +30
Unfilled orders 250,990 252,600 -02 04 “14 265,781 37
Excluding aircraft and parts
Shipments . 48,365 | 48,775 | 46,459 -08 15.0] +02 | 45,178] 42,370 | 40,798 +107
New orders 48364 | 48.777 | 441540 “08 495 33] 45,100 | 42'505 | 41663 48.2
Unfilled orders 109{908 | 109;909 | 109/907 0.0 00 17 | 109:419 | 109/497 | 104°577 +46
Defense :
Shipments . . 6,498 6,585 6,278 “13 +49 59 6,229 3,750 6,462 3.6
New orders 5,139 ¥ 5209 | -205 | +242] -13.5 3/559 3,066 33574 “04
Unfilled orders: : 92430 | 93,789 | 93,906 “14 “0.1 “Ul 91034 | 93.704 | 95,006 “42

INA} Nox available. * Revised

" Shipments an new orders are the totals fr the period and ate adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the peri and are nue adjusted for trading-ay or calendar-month. variations

Based on advance sample, Estimates of manutucturers” shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey errue and revision. One major compunent of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors af coverage,
response and nonrepoting. Since the survey panel ist a probability sample, estimates of sempling ert cannot he calelated. Furter deta on survey design, methodology, and dat hmitations are contained wv oor most recent annual
henchmark publication, Current Industrial Repons: M3-1(96), "Manufacturers" Shypments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996,

"The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense + ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery. special industry
‘machinery. general industrial machinery. computer und office equipment, retrigerution, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distibution equipment. electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
Complete aieraft, missles, and space vehicles, wircratt missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigution equipment

‘Defense capital goods include = ordnunce, communication equipment, aiccrat, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks und tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Aug. [Aug 1998] Year ago ‘Aug | Aug. 1998-| Year ago Aug, [Aug, 1998-

Aug. 1998 | 1994-1998 July 1999 | Aug. 1998 | 1994-1998 July 1999] Aug. 1998] 1994-1998 | July 1999

Durable goods 0.1 02 Os 04 03 24 02 O1 OS

Primary metals Os 03 1.0 1.0 0.9 2.6 OL 04 09

Industrial machinery and equipment 0.5 04 16 0s 0.5 28 0.1 02 08
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 0.6 o4 14 26 09 41 12 0.4 1.0

Transportation equipment : MW 08 22 25 14 66 02 Ol 06

Nondefense capital goods 02 03 14 13 0.6 42 02 0.1 04

Defense capital goods . 0.0 0.7 28 0.5 3.7 27.6 0.0 02 Ll

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

225

215

205

195

185

175 Lent L l L n L L i L n L 1 L

New Orders

Shipments

225

4215

205

195

185

Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1997 - Aug. 1999

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

64

59

44

175

New Orders

| Shipments

64

59

44

Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

Aug. 1997 - Aug. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.