UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | «tx.

re z HS BUREAU OF THE
= 2 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela September 27, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95-175
M3-1(95)-8

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
August 1995
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up for the first month since May, increased $7.7 billion or 4.9
percent to $163.9 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. The motor vehicle and parts industry, which
was heavily affected by the growing practice of shutting down for two weeks in July, contributed to nearly half of this month’s increase
and over three quarters of last month’s decline. The August increase follows decreases of 1.8 percent in July and 0.3 percent in June. Year
to date, new orders are 8.1 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $5.2 billion or 15.7 percent to $38.6 billion, mostly due to motor vehicles and parts and
ail ft and aircraft parts. This is the first increase since May and the third this year. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $1.4
billion or 4.6 percent to $31.2 billion. This follows a 6.6 percent July decrease and is the third increase in the last four months. Primary
metals, up for the first month since December, increased $0.9 billion or 6.5 percent to $15.2 billion. Electronic and other electrical
equipment had the only decrease, $1.5 billion or 5.1 percent to $26.9 billion, due to electronic components and accessories and
communication equipment. This follows a 7.7 percent July increase and is the fourth decline this year.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in August increased $7.3 billion or 4.7 percent to $163.2 billion, following a 3.0 percent
July decrease. This is the third increase in the last four months and the eighth in the last ten months. Year to date, shipments are 8.1
percent above the same period last year.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.3 billion or 9.6 percent to $38.1 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts. This follows
an 8.0 percent July decline. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.3 billion or 5.2 percent to $27.1 billion, the third
increase in the last four months. Industrial machinery and equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $1.0 billion or 3.3 percent
to $31.2 billion. This follows a 2.3 percent July decline. Primary metals, up for the first month since May, increased $0.2 billion or 1.5
percent to $14.9 billion. This follows decreases of 2.0 percent and 1.2 percent in July and June respectively.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in August increased $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent to $435.0 billion. This follows
a 0.1 percent July increase and is the ninth increase in the last twelve months.

Transportation equipment, up for the first month since February, had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $196.3 billion.
Primary metals, also up for the first month since February, increased $0.3 billion or 1.2 percent to $27.7 billion. Industrial machinery and
equipment increased slightly to $72.9 billion, following a 0.5 percent July decline. This is the twenty-fourth increase in the last twenty-six
months. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $54.6 billion. This follows a
4.8 percent July increase, and is the second decline in the last twelve months.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in August increased $1.8 billion or 37.3 percent to $6.8 billion. This
follows declines of 7.6 percent in July and 3.4 percent in June. Shipments were up $0.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $6.4 billion, following
decreases of 1.3 percent and 2.9 percent in July and June respectively. Unfilled orders increased $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $108.1
billion, the first increase since March.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August increased $1.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $41.3 billion. This
follows decreases of 6.4 percent in July and 0.4 percent in June, and is the fifth increase this year. Shipments increased $1.2 tullion or
2.9 percent to $42.2 billion. This follows a 4.7 percent July decrease and is the third increase in the last four months. Unfilled orders,
down four of the last five months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.5 percent to $202.6 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
increased $0.6 billion or 1.7 percent to $36.4 billion, the third increase in the last four months; shipments increased $1.2 billion or 3.2
percent to $37.4 billion, the third increase in the last four months; unfilled orders decreased $1.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $97.2 billion,
the second consecutive monthly decline following twenty-five consecutive increases.

@ REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July Figs for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $293.2 billion (revised
from $292.8 billion); new orders, $293.6 billion (revised from $292.9 billion); unfilled orders, $460.3 billion (revised from $460.1 billion);
and total inventories, $412.4 billion (revised from $412.5 billion).

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published October 4, 1995. The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled for October 26, 1995. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's online
information service-CENDATA. Further information aboat accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe
(1-RO0-R4R-2190) The CENDVATA ctaff at the Riirean af the Cenene (201-487.1714) ran nrawida cantant infarmatian and meneral mridanne


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
ues Juh June | July; | June. | May- Au Jul Aug,
199! 1995" 1995 | Aug? | ‘July’ } June 199) 1995" 1994 | Aug.95/94
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments 163.224 | 155930 | 1o0gae | 47 +08 | 160,698 | 132,448 | 152,591 +53
New orders 163,877 | 156,225 | 159031] +49 <18|  -0.3 | 139,782 | 133,434 | 149/592 +68
Unfilled orders 434'951 | 434,298 | 434012 | +0.2 20.4 | 434014 | 434:930 | 423/003 42.6
Excluding defens
Shipments 156,809 | 149,583 | 154389] +4 +09 | 154,500 } 126,728 | 145,740 +6.0
New 157073 | 151270 | 1537669 | +3.8 02 | 133'840 | 129:553 | 145,028 +611
Untied orders’ 326,866 | 326,602 | 324,915 | +0.1 02 | 327/013 | 3277673 | 313,013 445
With unfilled orde
Shipments... 130,944 | 126,939 | 129,865] +32 23) +09] 128,624} 110,137 | 119,785 +74
New orders 131,397 | 127,225 | 128,06! 34 07) 04 | 1277708 | 111,123 | 116,786 +94
Primary metals:
Shipments. 14910 | 14,687 | 14,983 | +15 20) 12) 14947] 13183] 13,535] +104
New orders 15235 | 14310 | 14329 | +65 “0.1 09 | 14645] 12486 | 13,059 | +121
Untitled orde 27729 | 277404} 27781 | +12 14] 9-23] 27/242 | 27's44.] 25817 +555
Ingustrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments. 31201 | 30,191 | 30894] +33 2 +03 | 28,979 | 25,606 | 26,270 | +103
New orders 31203 | 29/838 | 31934 | +46 66) 424 x 24/985 | 27/875 +
Unfilled orders’: *: 72/861 | 721859 | 73;212 0.0 “0. +14] 72,298} 72:214 | 62% +149
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments". 27,142 | 25,796 | 26454] +52 P 432 | 26,822] 22,725 | 22,891
371 | 28327 | 26310] S| +77] -18} 26081 | 26033 | 22,100
Une orde x 54/835 | 523304 | -0'5 03 | 54586 | 55327 | 45,465
Transportation equipment : :
Shipments . 38,112] 34,786 | 37,812] 49.6 8.0 36,827 | 25,021 | 38,786
New orders | 38/562 3/321 | 36,082 | +15:7 11 36816 | 23.265 | 35/97
Unfilled orders: 196306 | 1957856 | 197,321 2 20:7 195698 | 195,709 | 203/346
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total: |
Shipments 48,626 | 47,369 | 49,473 2 43] +20] 45,630 | 40,847 33 478
New orders. ° 48,059 | 45,168 | 48326 | +6.4 65] 0.7 | 44519 | _37%945 9930 | +115
Unfilled orders : 310,700 | 311,267 | 313;468 | -0.2 70:7] -0.4.| 3097222 | 310/333 | 308,877 +011
Nondefense :
Shipments... ... 42211 | 41,013 | 43,034 | +2.9 47) 427] 39432 | 35127 | 35488] +111
New orders "2! 41255 | 40,213 | 421964 | +26 64] 04] 38577 | 34/064 | 35,366 49.1
Unfilled orders’ |<! I} 202%615 | 203/571 | 2043371 05 0.4 0.0 | 202;221 | 203,076 | 198/887 417
Excluding aircraft and parts
Shipments . . . .. 37,406 | 36,252 | 37,988 46 35,103 | 31,088} 31,145 | +12.
New orders <2: 36441 | 35,823 | 38.979 | +17 81] 43.0 | 34239 | 30;396 | 321345 +59
Unfilled orders 97,218 3 | 98,612 - 04 96,824 | 97,688 | 85/880 | +12.
Defense :
Shipments ...... 6.415 6,356 6439 | +09 “13 6,198 6,851
New orders"! 1 * | 6,804 4955 5362 | +373 16 5,942 3881 4'564
Unfilled orders’: : | 108,085 | 107,696 | 109/097 | +04 213 107,001 | 107257 | 109/990

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

" Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-ay or calendar-month variation:
ence ‘on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage
‘Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further deuils on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annus

[emia pubiesdon, Curent Inds! Repos: MS-1G2), “Manufactures Shipment, Trento and Orders 198-1992"

"The Capital Goods Industries ince Nondefense ordnance and scestris, stam engines and urines, ital combstion engines, cnstucton mining and metal handing equipment, metalworking machinery, spi indus
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry ‘and
‘complete areraft. missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, allroad equipment, and search and navigation ‘equipment.

‘Defense capital goods include : ordnance, ‘communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago ‘ug, | Aug. 1994-| Year ago ‘Aug | Aug, 1994-| Year ago Aug, Aug, 1994

‘Aug. 1994 | 1990-1994 | July 1995 | Aug. 1994 | 1990-1994 | July 1995] Aug. 1994] 1990-1994 | July 1995

Durable goods . Or 02 02 95 03 04 Ol 1 0

Primary metals : 04 03 07 05 13 0.0 02 04

Industrial machinery and equipment’... 03 03 07 08 06 i 02 04 05
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 01 02 04 ol 05 09 0.0 ol 03

‘Transportation equipment. | | 02 04 05 10 06 07 ol ol 01

Nondefense capital goods 03 03 08 0s 05 12 0.0 0.1 02

Defense capital goods 02 07 08 29 13 31 ol Ol 02

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders

7B ------------- +--+ ----------------] ——— 14.175
Shipments

165 165

155 155

145 145

135 135

125 L L 1 1 i L i 1 L 1 1 1 L 125

Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1993 - Aug. 1995
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
49 Pp ee 49
New Orders
44}----------------------------------- Shipments |] 44

39

34

29 1 1 L L L L sha 1 1 L i L 1 29
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

Aug. 1993 - Aug. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.