UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | «itn.
N HWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 POR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 March 26, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97-50
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-02

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 1997
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

®@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $2.6 billion or 1.5 percent to $178.3 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 4.1 percent January increase. Excluding
transportation, new orders increased 3.1 percent, following a 4.9 percent January increase. Year to date, new orders are 7.1 percent
above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $2.1 billion or 7.4 percent to $30.6 billion, due to communication
equipment and electronic components. This follows a 17.9 percent January increase. Tadustrial machinery and equipment, up for the
third consecutive month, increased $0.7 billion or 2.2 percent to $33.2 billion. This follows a 0.9 percent January increase.
Instruments and related Products, up for the fifth consecutive month, also increased. Transportation equipment, down two of the last
three months, decreased $1.5 billion or 3.6 percent to $40.8 billion, with decreases in all component categories except railroad
equipment. This follows a 1.6 percent January increase. Primary metals, down for the first month since October, decreased $0.1 billion
or 0.5 percent to $15.8 billion, following a 5.1 percent January increase.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in February, up three of the last four months, increased $2.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $173.0 billion,
following a 1.1 percent January increase. Year to date, shipments are 7.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 4.6 percent to $28.2 billion. This follows a 2.9
percent January decrease and is the first increase since November. Primary metals, up for the fifth consecutive month, increased $0.1

illion or 0.7 percent to $15.7 billion, following a 2.6 percent January increase. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four
months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $39.9. billion, as increases in railroad equipment and aircraft and parts more than offset
a decrease in motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 3.9 percent January increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up two of
the last three months, increased 0.1 percent to $32.2 billion, following a 1.3 percent January decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in February increased $5.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $499.5 billion. This
follows a 1.1 percent January increase and is the ninth increase in the last ten months.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the second consecutive month, had the largest increase, $2.4 billion or 4.7 percent
to $52.7 billion, following a 3.1 percent January increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the second consecutive month,
increased $1.1 billion or 1.5 percent to $73.5 billion, following a 0.5 percent January increase. Transportation equipment, up nine of
the last ten months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $256.1 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 1.0 percent January
increase. Primary metals, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $30.7 billion, following a 1.1
percent January increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in February increased 0.1 percent to $6.3 billion, following a 21.6
percent January decline. Shipments, up for the first month since November, increased $0.4 billion or 6.3 percent to $6.4 billion,
following a 1.2 percent January decrease. Unfilled orders, down for the first month since October, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent
to $110.4 billion, following a 0.2 percent January increase.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in February increased $1.7 billion or 3.7 percent to $47.6 billion,
following a 4.5 percent January increase. Shipments increased $0.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $43.8 billion. This follows a 3.3 percent
January decrease and is the third increase in the last four months. Unfilled orders increased $3.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $257.1
billion, following a 1.1 percent January increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $2.6 billion or 6.9 percent to $40.5
billion, the second consecutive monthly increase; shipments increased $0.7 billion or 1.9 percent to $38.0 billion, the third increase
in the last four months; unfilled orders increased $2.5 billion or 2.6 percent to $99.0 billion, the second consecutive monthly increase.

@ REVISED JANUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted January figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $318.5
billion (revised from $318.7 billion); new orders, $323.3 billion (revised from $323.2 billion); unfilled orders, $519.2 billion (revised
from $518.9 billion); and total inventories, $438.3 billion (revised from $438.1 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS
Our internet address is http://www.census. gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published April 2, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for April 29, 1997. This report is available
on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


i

Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Feb, Jan. Dec. Jan. | Dec. | Nov. Feb, Jan, Feb
1977 1997! 1996 | Feb? | Jan’ | Dec. 19975 1997 1996 | Feb.97/96
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 172,967 | 170,355 | 168,719 | +14 +11 -0.8 +71
New orders 178324 | 175,768 | 168,886 | +15 +41 “17 +97
Unfilled orders 49o4e4 | 494127 | aggio1d | +11 +11 0.0 +73
Excluding defense :
Shipments . 166,525 | 164.496 | 162.587 | +12 +12 08 +69
New orders . 172,002 169.450 160,831 +15 +54 14 +92
Unfilled orders 389,047 383,570 378,616 +14 +13 0.5 +7.
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 138.477 +22] +02 04 +14
New orders 143.690 +22 $3.9 “15 +106
Primary metals ;
Shipments +07 42.6 +04 16,059 14,820 1S,111 +63
New orders. 0.5 +51 +44 16,972 16,583 16,043 58
Unfilled orders +0.5 +1 02 31,891 30.978 30.622 “41
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 40.1 13] +22 31,279 +15
New orders #22 +09] +34 32/373 417
Unfilled orders 4 +0.5 “05 731489 +15
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 28,193, 27731 | +46 29 23 +8.0
New orders toe 30,563 24134] 474 | +179] -138 422'5
Unfilled orders’ 52/680 48.811 + 431 69 +59
‘Transportation eq :
Shipments. bose 39,905 38,340 2 $3.9 “19 | 42,751 476
New orders 40/833 41667 36 | +16 20.6 | 43.202 48.8
Unfitied orders . 256,099 252,659 +10 +13 255,755 +118
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
i)
Shipments 49211 50,744 +2.0 3.0 +12 48.478 40,028 46,212 +49
New orders 52.170 1924 | +33 40.5 -14| sosl | 4aass | 48/022 +82
Unfilled orders 363.868 360,909 +10 +0.8 +03 368,366 364,863 341,907 +77
Nondefense
Shipments 43,773 44612 | +14 ~ +15} 42,080} 33,073 | 404 +4.
New orders 47354 43860 | 43:7} +45 0.0 | 461095 | 39082 | 43.288 +65
Unfilled orders 257,092 250-611 ans fo +1 -0.3 | 2581122 | 254107 | 237°803 48.5
Excluding aircraft and part
Shipments 3801s | 37,306 | 38.567 | + +L] 36.561 30,632 | 35,839 +20
New orders... |. 40519 | 37914 | 36,739] 469] +32 “22 | 39.299 | 321840 | 37,389 +3)
Unfilled orders 98969 | 96.465 | 95.857 +06 219 | 993999 | 97261 | 99°486 +05
Shipraents 6,442 6,059 6,132 “12 -10 6,398 5771 +109
Nev orders 63322 63318 8055 | +01 | 216 “8.1 5886 4.734 +243
Unfilled orders 110,437 110,557 110,298 -( +02 +18 110.244 104.104 +59
ct amatlible Revises
"Stipments and ew sets ate te tts For the peo ad ane alse for alingday and calendur-month varaons: unfilled ders area of he eno he eran and ae aM ated Jor rang eer an
fed we alvnve sample, Estimates of maputictues” shipments, inventive, and orders ae sbjet to survey etre and fevion. One maj component if survey err nonsampling eto, wick mses eo of canes
respi aucpning "Sine the survey fact nt a pecany sales estimates sang ere cant he colle Forer detas cm survey design, mean. un daa ations fe cae 38 st yea a
feachmsk palin, Curren Iadustit Reports facture Shipment, dnl Orders 1982-1995."

“The Capitat Govuls Industries include Nendefemse - ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines. cemstructiva mining aod material handling equipment, metalworking thacmery. ypecial walvy
tnachinery, Beneval malustria machineey. eomputce and vitice equipment, refrigeration, beating and service ialustry machinery, electrical ansmasion aod distribution equipment, electrical iustrial apparatus, communication expres
Uinnpleteavrall, misiles, an space vehiles. aircraft missiles, anw space vehicle engines and pans, ships and tank components, rafload equipment, and search and navigation equipment

‘Betense capital somal, include sdnance, cammunication equipment, aieratt, masiles. space vehiles, and parts, ships, (anks and tank components, search and mvigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1996- | Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1996-| Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1996-
Feb, 1996 | 1992-1996 | Jan. 1997] Feb. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Jan. 1997] Feb. 1996] 1992-1996] Jan. 1997
Durable goods... . coe 0.0 01 02 0. 02 04 0.0 ol ol
Primary metals: 0.1 0.2 04 05 Lt 09 02 0.6 OS
Industrial machinery and equipment 2.0 06 0.6 18 0.5 08 0.1 Ol 02
Electronic and other
electrical equipment 02 02 08 07 04 ut os 03 06
‘Transportation equipment 16 06 06 08 07 V4 02 on 02
Nondefense capital goods 12 04 os Lo 0s 09 0.0 0.0 02
Defense capital goods 10. 07 12 54 35 5 04 04 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regart

for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
190 190

New Orders

180 F- - ~~ Shipments |] 180

170 Soe a 2 4170

160

160
150 150
140 Lu | ! \ ! ! ! i ! | 1 | Ll 440

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1995 - Feb. 1997
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
53 F---------------------------- ---- eee New Orders |+ 53
Shipments

Ce a 4 48

33 Lu n L L n L L nl i L n L Lt 33

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec’ Feb
Feb. 1995 - Feb. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.