= : — ECONOMICS
ES DEPARTMENT OF OAND

UNITED STAT
STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION
mE
aS U.S. CENSUS BUIREAU
ra WASHINGTON, DC 20230
U.S. Census Bureau For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 July 25, 2002
For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy CB-02-100
(301) 763-4832 or (301) 763-4814
M3-1(02)-6

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
June 2002

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

¢ NEW ORDERS, excluding semiconductors, for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $6.7 billion or 3.8 percent to $166.6
billion, the Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.6 percent May increase. Excluding
transportation and semiconductors, new orders decreased 3.1 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2002 were 3.0 percent below the same
period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down four consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $2.8 billion or 5.6 percent to $47.0 billion, led mostly
by nondefense aircraft and parts which decreased $1.8 billion. Machinery decreased $1.5 billion or 6.7 percent to $21.2 billion.

© SHIPMENTS, excluding semiconductors, of manufactured durable goods in June decreased $2.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $173.7
billion. This followed a 0.2 percent May decrease. Year to date, shipments for 2002 were 2.9 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $0.9 billion or 1.7 percent to $51.4 billion, led by motor vehicles and parts which
decreased $1.2 billion. Computers and electronic products, excluding semiconductors, decreased $0.7 billion or 2.6 percent to $26.3
billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS, excluding semiconductors, for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $7.1 billion or 1.4 percent to
$489.3 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent May decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $4.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $248.1 billion, led by aircraft and parts which decreased
$3.7 billion. Machinery, down six consecutive months, decreased $1.9 billion or 3.7 percent to $48.4 billion.

© INVENTORIES, excluding semiconductors, of manufactured durable goods in June, down seventeen consecutive months, decreased
$1.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $265.3 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent May decrease.

Computers and electronic products, excluding semiconductors, down 15 of the last 16 months, had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or
1.7 percent to $43.0 billion, mostly due to nondefense communication equipment. Machinery, down fifteen consecutive months,
decreased $0.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $45.1 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June increased $1.0 billion or 18.5 percent to $6.3 billion. Shipments
increased $0.4 billion or 5.8 percent to $6.7 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $125.8 billion. Inventories
increased $0.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $19.0 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June decreased $4.8 billion or 8.5 percent to $51.6 billion.
Shipments decreased $1.2 billion or 2.0 percent to $56.6 billion. Unfilled orders, down seventeen consecutive months, decreased $5.0
billion or 2.3 percent to $214.8 billion. Inventories, down seventeen consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $115.4
billion.

© REVISED MAY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $320.3 billion
(revised from $321.0 billion); shipments, $323.2 billion (revised from $323.6 billion); unfilled orders, $496.4 billion (revised from
$496.6 billion); and total inventories, $428.2 billion (unrevised).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates nlus nondurahle sands


rable 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments and New Orders
ions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted’ __
Monthy Percent Char ‘Monthly Percent
em Change
Jun May Apr May - Apr - Mar - Jun May Jun Jun
2002? 2002 2002 Jun? May‘ Apr 2002? 2002' 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:*
Shipments... 173,676] 176,097| 176,426 1.4] 0.2] 3.6| 189.488] —182,693| 194,826 27
New Order 166,602] 173,273, 172/325 3.8 06 os} 178,443 178,187| 187,024 “46
Excludi jortation:*
*ONSMMEN Sen 122,310] 123,823] 122,800] 08 2.4) 133,474] 125,567| 138,292]
New Orders... 119/558] 123,426 122/241 1.9 3:9 128,220] 124,611] 133,036
165,679] 168,513] 168,90; 1.7] -0.2 4.0) 180,512] 175,240) 186,907] 34
1Seoas]1e8.983| —t68.616| -a'a| 08 3:7| 471/127] 173:282] —181:239| 36
Manufacturing with unfiled orders:
Shipments shai 121,687} 122,873| 123,001 1.9] 0.4 1.6] 132,719] 126,307] 139,723 5.0
New Orders... 114/613] 120,048] 118,909] 435} 1.9} -27| 121/674] 121/801) 131/921 78
Primary metals:
Shipments. 11,207} 11,314] 11,315] x) 0.0} 3.3, 11,638] 12,062] 11.974] 2.8
New Order 11/228] 11/458] 11/290] 2.9 15 63] 1vi4s6] = 12036| 11/936 “40
Fabricated metal product
Shipments. 21,057] 21,031) 21.471 oO. 0.7] 3.2| 22,068] 21.964] 22,195] 0.6
New Orders. 20/587] 21/302] 20,913] 33 1.3] ¥7| 2/301] 22/628} 22/105] "3.2
Machine:
‘Shipments. 23,107) 23,842] 22.7181 -1.8 3.8 os} 25,614] 24,373 26,390] 29
New Order 2ii2a8] 22/781] 22/446 6.7) 155] 4.6] 22.966] 23.422 25,013] “B2
id electronic products:
Computes, and electronic products” 26,294] 27,008| 26,845 2.6 06 1.4] 30,597] 25,059] 33,707] 9.2
Now Order “Z) 25'a99] 26,954] 26,787] 3.9] 06 28] 29.227] 24.407] 30,928 55
Computers and related product:
‘Shipments _ 6,366 6.578 6.671 3.2 14 42 8,123 5,533 9,073] 108
New Orders... 6.162 6.634] 6.407| 7 355 03 7778 81909 9,081 143
Communications equipment:
‘Shipments . 5.732] 5,995] 6.072 44] -1.3| 22 6,808 5,604 3,898 23.5
New Order 3,398 6.197] 6.184 -12'3| 02 14.4] 5,837 5/562 6.812| “143
‘Semigonductor:
pments ay (ay way (nal (nay way wa way wal (ay
New Orders. Emm (Na) (Na) wa) na) (Nal (Na) vs) (nal (wa) (Na)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
‘and components
‘Shipments so 9.018 9,206 9,247 -2.9] 0.4 2.7] 9,826 9,345] 11,324] “13.2
New Orders. 9,281 9,349 9,495 0.7] “15 94 9.847 9421 10,694 73
Transportation equipment:
Shipments. 51,366] 52,2741 53,626 1.7] 2.5] 6.3] 56,014] 57.126 56,534 0.9
New Orders. 47,044] 49,847] 50,084 "5.5 0:5 -Fo| 80.223] 53,576] 53.988] 70
Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipments 36,986] 38,207] 39,203 -3.2| 2.5] 12.21 39,611] 42,946 38,871 19
New Orders. 37,074] 38,393] 39,327 “3.4] 2.4] 12:1] 39,447] aia] 38,520) 2A
Nondefense aircraft and parts:
Shipments. 6.148 6,249 6,698] 1.5 6.7] 9.1 7.037 6.417 9.463] 25.6
New Orders... 2.775 5.216 3,740 -46.5| 39.5] 4255] sieaa 5.411 97441} “614
Defense aircraft and parts:
Shipments. 3,129 2,931 2,847] 6.8 3.9) 6.0} 3,662 2,820} 2,956] 23.9
New Orders 21827 21229 2144 268 40} -66..2| 2727 1.784] 2/280] 19:6
{All other durable goods:
‘Shipments. . 31.627] 31,722] 31,504] 0.3 07 35| 33,734] 32,764] 32,702] 3.2
New Orders. 31/308] 31/582] 31310} 09 09 3.3) 33,333] 32696| 32/360) 3.0
Capital goods:*
inpments. 63,263] 64,080] 63.407 1 71711) 63,233] 77,867 79
New Order 57,834] 61,656] 60,010} 27) 63/356] 59,624] 70,287 99
Nondefense capital goods:
‘Shipments, 96,582] 87,765] 57.195 2.9) 10 0.1] 64,412] 56,942] 70,932] 9.2
New Orders. 51.575 86.376| 54,220 “8.5 a0 11) 57,727] 58.454| 65,800 123
Excluding aircraft:
Shipments. 53,594] 54,622] 53,799] 1.9] 15 a4] 6o.ssol 53,501] 65,367 69
New Orders. 51,283] 54,039) 53,563] 5.2 09 8.3} 56.831] 52.819] 61.011 69
Defense capital goods:
‘Shipments 6,681 6.315 6.212| 5. 17 7.3] 7,299 6,291 6,935] 8.2
New Orders. 6.259] 5.280] 5,790] 18.5 aa 45.3 5,629 4.170} 4,487] 25.5
NA Not Available “Revised
* Shiomants and naw orders arte ota fr the paid and are for trading day and. ations; unfiled orders and total are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted
tor tedingday or ealendar-mont
2 aased on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shigments, inentrns, and oder asec to survey enor and revision, One moe component of suey aor nonsaming fre, which ches
enors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey” pate! ls not a probabmty sample, estates ‘annot be calculated. Porter detais on survey design .
tnd at intaton we artaned ws our mont recent anol bechnarpunseaten, Coen tausei Reprcs M310 ‘Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001-=
2 The Capital Goods Industries inde N + small arms and 5: fren mache senses mace ming and gs kd machine util machine: anda.
and otrer Y: photograpine 3 ing machinery: turbines and omer bower Racing =H
electronic computers: computer ices: thor ‘periral y search
ical caupment other : "and heavy duty Wucks: a Tog stock’ Uae ond bouts ofce and etna! famine aed neal equpemat and
Supplies.
“ grog estimates and percent changes excuse seiconduoy nur date Duet th numb of ge facturers choosing not to participate inthis voluntary survey, the
fonsus Bureau cannot cure ovders oF
® ue to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate inthis vokintary survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor

shipments, orders, or inventories.
Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, . pment, aircraft: missles, space ‘and parts, ships and boats. and search and navigation equipment.



Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]
Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
item Change
Jun May Apr May - Apr - Mar - Jun May Jun Jun
20027 | 2002° 2002 Jun? May‘ Apr 20027 | 2002° 2001 | 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
489,338] 496,412] 499,236} 1.4) 0.6] -0.8] 490,459} 501,504) 531,929]
Total inventories. 265,288] 266,540) 267,811 -0.5} 0.5] -0.5) (263,225) 268,439) 291,294)
Excluding transportation:*
Untied Orders 241,259) 244,011 244,408) “Wd 0.2) -0.2| 241,316] 246,570] 267,803} -9.9
Total Inventories. 193,340] 194,369] 195,636] 0.5] -0.6] -0.5] 192,419] 196,487 216,676 11.2
Excluding defens *
Unfilled Orders. 346,444 353,074] 354,604] 1.9) 0.4] -0.9} 346,504} 355,889) 398,167 13.0
Total Inventories. 243,119) 244,478) 245,398] 0.6] 0.4) -0.5] 241,270} (246,440) 269,736) 10.6
Manuf ith unfil Med ord
anus Ginfilled Orders. ers 499,338] 496,412] 499,236 “1.4 0.6 -0.8} 490,459] 501,504] 531,929
Total Inventories...... 216,003] 217,319] (218,917) -0.6] -0.7] -0.6] 214,265) (218,756) 238,789)
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders........... 16,195] 16,174) 16,030} On 0.9] -0.2) 16,429) 16,608] 18,554}
Total inventories. 18,268] 18,151 18,302] 0.6] -0.8 0.5] 18,092) 17,991 20,303}
39,549) 40,009} 39,738) Ad -0.6| 39,851 40,528] 43,681
30,528) 30,679) 31,024) 0.5] -0.9) 30,678} 30,963 33,739]
Machinery:
Unfilled Orders. 48,410) 50,269] 51,030} 1.5] -0.5] 48,144] 50,792 56,885)
Total Inventories. 45,061 45,461 45,753] 0.6] 1.2) 44,592 45,842) 49,026]
Computers. and electros
Unfilled Orders. 112,282 112,677 112,731 -0.4] 0.0) 0.1 112,362] 113,732| 122,852
Total Inventories. 43,023] 43,745] 44,429) 1.7) 1.5] 0.2] 42,756) 44,820] 53,843]
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders. 6,623) 6,827) 6,771) 0.8] 3.8 6,718] 7,063} 7,540) 10.9
Total Inventories. 7,069) 7,064] 7,048} 0.2) “1.4 6,882} 7,558) 8,200} 16.1
Communications equipment
Unfilled Orders... 41,844] 42,178] 41,976| 0.5) 0.3) 41,796) 42,765] 47,630} 12.4
Total Inventories...... 10,064] 10,373} 10,661 -2.7 11 9,864 10,570} 14,892] 33.8
Semiconductors:>
Unfilied Orders. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)| (NA)
Total Inventories. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)} (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders........ 15,085) 14,822) 14,679} 1.8] 1.0) 1.7] 14,850} 14,829) 15,723)
Total Inventories. 13,140} 13,151 13,209] 0.1 -0.4] 0.2] 13,017, 13,444] 14,301
Transportation equipment:
Unfilied Orders. (248,079) 252,401 (254,828) -1.0] 1.44 249,143) (254,934) (264,126) 5.7
Total Inventories.. 71,948) 72171 72,175) 0.0) 0.4] 70,806) 71,952, 74,618] 61
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders.. 12,765) 12,677) 12,491) 0.7) 1.5] 1.0) 12,564) 12,728) 12,940]
Total Inventories.. 20,240) 20,159} 20,089} 0.4] 0.3) 1.2] 20,093] 20,173} 21,385)
Nondefense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 113,126 116,499) 117,532) -0.9) 2.5] 113,607] 116,996} 138,771 “18.1
Total Inventories. 7 29,967 30,279) 30,066] 0.7) -1.6] 29,303] 30,067] 32,094) 8.7
Defense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders.. 7 55,023) 55,325) 56,027] -1.3] 1.2) 55,792 56,727 43,226] 29.1
Total Inventories......... -. 10,602] 10,623] 10,842 -2.0] 0.6 10,425) 10,567 9,957] 47
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders........... 9,738) 10,060} 10,200} « 1.4) 1.9) 9,680} 10,081 10,108} 4.2
Total Inventories. 43,320] 43,182] 42,919] 0.3] 0.6] 0.0 43,284] 43,427 45,464) 4.8
Capital goods:
Intilled Orders. . 340,625] 346,054] (348,478) -0.7| 1.0) 340,694) 349,049] 372,337 8.5
Total Inventories......... 134,390) 135,161 136,121 -0.7] 0.9} 132,656} 136,333} 148,408] “12
Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 214,800) (219,807) 221,196} -0.6] -1.3) 214,621 221,306 256,197 “16.2
Total Inventories.. 115,437 116,422! 117,117] -0.6] -0.9} 113,871 117,544) 130,702 12.9
Excluding aircraft:
Unfilled Orders... 131,486] 133,827 134,410} 0.4] -0.2| 131,307] 135,326, 149,900} 12.4
Total Inventories...... 91,888} 92,740] 93,475) 0.8] -0.6] 90,964] 94,268} 104,864] 13.3
Defense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 125,825 126,247 127,282| 0.3] 0.8} -0.3] 126,073} 127,743} 116,140) 8.6
Totai Inventories. 18,953 18,739) 19,004] Wd “1.4 -0.6| 18,785) 18,789) 18,706) 0.4

See footnotes at end of Table 1