U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-12

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

January 28, 2004

CB-04-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

December 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $0.1 billion to $181.4 billion, the Department of

Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.3 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation,

new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.2 percent. New orders for 2003 were 2.8 percent

above the prior year.

Computers and electronic products had the largest decrease, $0.8 billion or 2.7 percent to $28.8 billion, due to communications

equipment, which decreased by $0.9 billion. Communications equipment was at the lowest level since December 1996.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in December, up four consecutive months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.6 percent

to $185.4 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent November increase. Shipments for 2003 were 0.8 percent above the prior year.

Machinery, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $0.7 billion or 3.1 percent to $22.0 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in December, up five consecutive months, increased $2.0 billion or

0.4 percent to $505.8 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent November increase.

Transportation equipment, up nine of the past eleven months, had the largest increase, $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $251.6

billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in December increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $262.0 billion. This

followed a 0.3 percent November decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $67.3 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in December increased 0.1 percent to $9.2 billion. Shipments

increased $0.2 billion or 2.9 percent to $7.7 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $138.2 billion. 

Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $19.5 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in December increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to

$58.1 billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $58.7 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.3

percent to $220.6 billion. Inventories decreased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $105.2 billion.

! REVISED November DATA Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all manufacturing industries are: new

orders, $336.9 billion (unrevised); shipments, $339.7 billion (revised from $339.9 billion); unfilled orders, $503.8 billion

(revised from $503.6 billion); and total inventories, $437.8 billion (revised from $437.9 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published February 4, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for

January is scheduled for February 26 at 8:30 A.M. EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Dec Nov Oct Nov - Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec Change

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Dec 2 Nov r Oct 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2003 2002 03/02

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 185,413 184,230 183,740 0.6 0.3 0.7 186,480 179,084 171,128 2,147,870 2,131,404 0.8

 New Orders 4

.............................. 181,356 181,444 185,771 0.0 -2.3 3.9 186,766 176,101 168,525 2,098,277 2,040,581 2.8

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 132,210 130,985 131,348 0.9 -0.3 1.6 135,805 127,054 125,443 1,529,309 1,507,275 1.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 126,136 126,996 131,147 -0.7 -3.2 2.9 129,470 123,731 119,075 1,473,391 1,423,483 3.5

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 176,290 175,424 174,673 0.5 0.4 1.0 176,028 169,971 162,135 2,040,215 2,036,651 0.2

 New Orders 4.............................. 170,916 170,562 174,478 0.2 -2.2 2.8 170,516 165,832 154,743 1,977,362 1,942,955 1.8

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 123,935 124,247 123,619 -0.3 0.5 0.5 126,695 121,378 119,345 1,453,584 1,465,665 -0.8

 New Orders 4.............................. 125,890 127,743 131,920 -1.5 -3.2 5.5 133,332 124,994 122,398 1,474,835 1,433,824 2.9

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 11,254 11,032 10,968 2.0 0.6 1.7 10,030 10,350 9,722 131,039 135,930 -3.6

 New Orders.............................. 11,410 11,734 11,948 -2.8 -1.8 9.8 10,545 10,988 9,706 132,628 134,089 -1.1

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,698 20,422 20,532 1.4 -0.5 0.5 19,215 19,765 19,139 245,136 252,232 -2.8

 New Orders.............................. 20,960 21,131 21,191 -0.8 -0.3 2.1 19,214 20,478 18,292 246,118 249,408 -1.3

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 22,007 21,352 21,492 3.1 -0.7 0.5 21,855 19,839 20,615 252,875 255,651 -1.1

 New Orders.............................. 22,690 22,316 21,705 1.7 2.8 1.4 21,943 20,866 19,538 252,752 244,559 3.4

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 36,123 36,391 36,529 -0.7 -0.4 2.6 43,492 36,218 37,948 417,132 392,026 6.4

 New Orders 4.............................. 28,771 29,559 33,685 -2.7 -12.2 2.5 36,884 29,952 33,999 356,702 325,378 9.6

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,144 8,248 8,450 -1.3 -2.4 4.6 10,794 7,481 8,586 93,153 81,449 14.4

 New Orders.............................. 8,376 8,215 8,209 2.0 0.1 -0.8 10,728 7,788 9,274 93,834 82,398 13.9 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,594 6,667 6,770 -1.1 -1.5 3.1 8,944 6,836 7,817 76,798 79,407 -3.3

 New Orders.............................. 4,194 5,122 9,552 -18.1 -46.4 18.8 6,426 5,991 7,140 82,041 74,195 10.6

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 6,012 6,282 6,270 -4.3 0.2 11.7 6,351 6,599 5,656 70,844 58,982 20.1

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,654 8,630 8,562 0.3 0.8 1.2 9,093 8,547 8,777 101,453 103,673 -2.1

 New Orders.............................. 8,428 8,473 8,665 -0.5 -2.2 0.8 8,705 8,391 8,661 101,211 103,013 -1.7

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 53,203 53,245 52,392 -0.1 1.6 -1.3 50,675 52,030 45,685 618,561 624,129 -0.9

 New Orders.............................. 55,220 54,448 54,624 1.4 -0.3 6.4 57,296 52,370 49,450 624,886 617,098 1.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 38,580 37,585 37,835 2.6 -0.7 -0.6 33,873 35,528 29,167 442,703 450,136 -1.7

 New Orders.............................. 38,579 37,834 38,336 2.0 -1.3 -0.5 34,247 36,069 29,620 443,892 450,183 -1.4 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,333 5,859 5,486 -9.0 6.8 -2.7 6,494 6,330 7,493 67,265 76,599 -12.2

 New Orders.............................. 6,158 4,905 5,625 25.5 -12.8 20.6 8,417 5,111 8,275 60,697 65,295 -7.0

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,449 3,016 3,380 14.4 -10.8 -3.8 4,137 3,257 3,212 39,840 35,127 13.4

 New Orders.............................. 3,952 3,721 3,931 6.2 -5.3 7.2 5,725 3,126 4,665 44,549 40,087 11.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 33,474 33,158 33,265 1.0 -0.3 1.9 32,120 32,335 29,242 381,674 367,763 3.8

 New Orders.............................. 33,877 33,783 33,953 0.3 -0.5 3.3 32,179 33,056 28,879 383,980 367,036 4.6

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 66,456 66,352 66,523 0.2 -0.3 0.1 74,965 64,200 67,947 773,161 753,048 2.7

 New Orders.............................. 67,322 67,210 71,007 0.2 -5.3 4.7 80,036 65,110 72,397 791,531 727,158 8.9

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 58,736 58,846 58,607 -0.2 0.4 0.3 66,293 56,460 60,553 681,562 673,223 1.2

 New Orders.............................. 58,105 58,001 61,672 0.2 -6.0 2.4 65,589 56,340 60,328 687,118 647,894 6.1

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 56,255 55,987 56,200 0.5 -0.4 0.8 62,919 53,328 56,798 650,745 634,549 2.6

 New Orders......................... 55,508 55,717 59,002 -0.4 -5.6 1.4 61,001 54,048 55,116 661,325 617,878 7.0

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,720 7,506 7,916 2.9 -5.2 -1.0 8,672 7,740 7,394 91,599 79,825 14.7

 New Orders.............................. 9,217 9,209 9,335 0.1 -1.3 23.2 14,447 8,770 12,069 104,413 79,264 31.7

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Dec Nov Oct Nov - Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Dec 2 Nov r Oct 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 505,758 503,803 500,307 0.4 0.7 1.7 501,930 495,293 480,679 4.4

 Total Inventories....................... 262,002 261,493 262,351 0.2 -0.3 0.3 255,149 262,261 264,446 -3.5

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 254,122 254,184 251,891 0.0 0.9 2.5 251,189 251,173 236,263 6.3

 Total Inventories....................... 194,682 194,481 194,796 0.1 -0.2 0.2 190,031 194,704 198,677 -4.4

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 347,125 346,487 345,067 0.2 0.4 1.8 344,125 343,286 336,134 2.4

 Total Inventories....................... 237,778 237,936 238,915 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 231,617 238,722 243,379 -4.8

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 505,758 503,803 500,307 0.4 0.7 1.7 501,930 495,293 480,679 4.4

 Total Inventories....................... 204,895 204,821 205,379 0.0 -0.3 0.3 199,873 205,624 209,343 -4.5

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 16,500 16,344 15,642 1.0 4.5 6.7 16,048 15,533 14,459 11.0

 Total Inventories....................... 17,252 17,260 17,162 0.0 0.6 -1.3 17,422 17,346 19,144 -9.0

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 38,444 38,182 37,473 0.7 1.9 1.8 37,882 37,883 36,900 2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 30,770 30,984 31,038 -0.7 -0.2 0.4 30,236 30,779 31,227 -3.2

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 43,301 42,618 41,654 1.6 2.3 0.5 42,297 42,209 42,420 -0.3

 Total Inventories....................... 41,466 41,208 41,465 0.6 -0.6 0.2 40,403 41,566 42,296 -4.5

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 129,699 131,039 131,589 -1.0 -0.4 2.7 129,231 129,488 118,817 8.8

 Total Inventories....................... 47,478 47,256 47,174 0.5 0.2 0.5 45,697 47,616 49,287 -7.3

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,883 8,651 8,684 2.7 -0.4 -2.7 8,805 8,871 8,124 8.4

 Total Inventories....................... 6,092 6,019 6,068 1.2 -0.8 -1.6 5,630 6,278 5,975 -5.8 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 50,460 52,860 54,405 -4.5 -2.8 5.4 49,990 52,508 44,747 11.7

 Total Inventories....................... 10,850 11,208 11,003 -3.2 1.9 -0.4 10,455 11,342 12,457 -16.1

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,777 14,003 14,160 -1.6 -1.1 0.7 13,550 13,938 13,792 -1.8

 Total Inventories....................... 12,374 12,375 12,290 0.0 0.7 0.0 11,947 12,253 12,234 -2.3

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 251,636 249,619 248,416 0.8 0.5 0.9 250,741 244,120 244,416 2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 67,320 67,012 67,555 0.5 -0.8 0.5 65,118 67,557 65,769 -1.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,275 13,276 13,027 0.0 1.9 4.0 13,322 12,948 12,133 9.8

 Total Inventories....................... 20,092 20,053 20,024 0.2 0.1 0.1 19,607 20,138 20,256 -3.2 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 104,702 103,877 104,831 0.8 -0.9 0.1 104,926 103,003 111,494 -5.9

 Total Inventories....................... 24,011 24,180 24,822 -0.7 -2.6 -0.9 23,032 24,652 25,368 -9.2

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 62,331 61,828 61,123 0.8 1.2 0.9 60,673 59,085 55,964 8.4

 Total Inventories....................... 11,649 11,164 11,029 4.3 1.2 1.7 11,253 11,135 9,610 17.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,401 11,998 11,373 3.4 5.5 6.4 12,181 12,122 9,875 23.4

 Total Inventories....................... 45,342 45,398 45,667 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 44,326 45,144 44,489 -0.4

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 358,802 357,936 357,078 0.2 0.2 1.3 357,081 352,010 338,711 5.4

 Total Inventories....................... 124,735 124,562 124,708 0.1 -0.1 0.2 121,025 125,817 126,811 -4.6

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 220,635 221,266 222,111 -0.3 -0.4 1.4 218,958 219,662 213,402 2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 105,205 105,364 105,724 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 101,838 106,680 109,106 -6.7

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 140,752 141,499 141,769 -0.5 -0.2 2.0 138,851 140,769 128,271 8.2

 Total Inventories.................. 88,228 88,315 88,141 -0.1 0.2 0.0 85,554 89,132 90,539 -5.5

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 138,167 136,670 134,967 1.1 1.3 1.1 138,123 132,348 125,309 10.2

 Total Inventories....................... 19,530 19,198 18,984 1.7 1.1 2.3 19,187 19,137 17,705 8.4

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 4,000 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,000 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,000 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.

2004 Release Dates for M3 Survey

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M.

Dec 2003 1/28/04 2/4/04

Jan 2004 2/26/04 3/4/04

Feb 2004 3/24/04 3/31/04

Mar 2004 4/23/04 5/4/04

Apr 2004 5/26/04 6/3/04

May 2004 6/24/04 7/2/04

Jun 2004 7/28/04 8/4/04

Jul 2004 8/25/04 9/2/04

Aug 2004 9/24/04 10/4/04

Sep 2004 10/27/04 11/3/04

Oct 2004 11/24/04 12/2/04

Nov 2004 12/23/04