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NOTICE

Revised historical data for Manufacturers’ Shipments,
Inventories, and Orders will be issued in mid-June. The primary
purpose of the revision is to benchmark the data to the 1989 and
1990 Annual Survey of Manufactures. Less significant revisions
will reflect the addition of data received too late to include in
the monthly press releases, corrections for misclassified
reports, and updating the trading day adjustment methodology.
Revisions related to benchmarking affect all industry categories.

Any questions regarding this announcement can be answered by
calling Steve Andrews on (301) 763-2502.



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= ——

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | ose.
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. ON CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth May 27, 1992
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 (CB92-154
M3-1(92)-04

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
April 1992
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods increased in April for the fourth consecutive month, up $1.8 billion or 1.4
percent to $125.4 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. The April increase follows increases
of 2.3 percent in March, 0.2 percent in February, and 2.4 percent in January.

Transportation equipment was up $1.9 billion or 6.1 percent to $34.1 billion, with increases in all categories except railroad
and other transportation equipment. This is the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Primary metals increased $0.3 billion or 2.8
percent to $10.7 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment was down $0.4 billion or 1.9 percent to $21.0 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in April decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $126.3 billion, following increases of 1.0 percent
in March, 3.1 percent in February, and 1.5 percent in January. This is the first decline since a 5.3 percent decrease in December
1991. Electronic and other electrical machinery decreased $0.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $17.5 billion, primarily due to
communications equipment. Industrial machinery and equipment was down $0.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $21.5 billion.
Transportation equipment declined $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $33.4 billion, with decreases in all categories except motor vehicles
and parts. The largest increases occurred in instruments and related products and primary metals.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in April decreased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $479.9 billion, and are at the lowest level
since $479.6 billion in August 1989. This is the eighth consecutive monthly decline. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders
decreased $1.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $212.5 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, down $0.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $51.8
billion, has declined in six of the last seven months and is at the lowest level since $51.7 billion in October 1987. Electronic and
other electrical equipment was down $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $46.7 billion. Primary metals, down $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent
to $19.8 billion, has declined in seven of the last eight months. Instruments and related products and fabricated metal products
also had large decreases. Transportation equipment was up $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $267.4 billion.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in April declined $2.3 billion or 6.8 percent to $31.8 billion, with large decreases
in aircraft and parts and communications equipment. The April decrease follows a 9.4 percent increase in March and a 1.4 percent
decrease in February. Shipments were down $1.1 billion or 3.2 percent to $32.8 billion, following three consecutive monthly
increases, Unfilled orders, with large declines in aircraft and parts and computer and office equipment, decreased $1.0 billion or
0.4 percent to $239.4 billion, and are at the lowest level since $239.1 billion in August 1990. Excluding aircraft and parts, nondefense
new orders decreased 2.6 percent, shipments were down 1.8 percent, and unfilled orders declined 0.7 percent.

New orders for defense were up $1.5 billion or 21.6 percent to $8.5 billion, with large increases in aircraft and parts and
shipbuilding and tanks. The April increase follows a 9.2 percent increase in March and 18.2 percent decrease in February.
Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $8.5 billion, following a 5.5 percent decrease in March and 5.8 percent increase
in February. Unfilled orders remained at $140.5 billion, the lowest level since $140.1 billion in November 1984.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS)

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates
plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 3, 1992. ‘The advance report on durable goods for May is scheduled for June 24, 1992. This report
is also available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-377-3870) and through the



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthiy Percent
change
Al Mar, Feb.| Marz | Feb] Jan. Ay Mar, Apr.
oe 19924 1993 | Ape2| Mart] “Feb.| 19828 1992 13 | apev201
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments . 126,309} 126,624] 125378] 02] +10] +31] 126323] 134937] 10s] +48
New orders 125'382 | 123,610 | 120/862] +14] +23] +02] 125387] 132/965 | ii6o44 | 475
Unfilled ord 479863 | 480700 | 483800] 02) “0 | "09 | 482'806 | 483/742 | so4’st6 a3
Excluding defense
‘Shipments - 117800} 118,231] 116493] 04] +125] +29] 118,300] 126,124} 112,257
New orders. ||! 116901 | 116635 | 1ida72 | 402} 413] +15] aistaso| 124/952 | 110,446
Unfilled orders’ | 339399 | 340298 | sar's0g] 03] “o5| 08] sat'sao 351 | 355/325
With unfilled orders :
Shipments << 105,543} 105,992] 104957] 04] +12] +23] 103970] 113097] 10059) +34
New orders | 1047616 | 102/978 | to0/31 | +16] 426] “TT] 103oa4} 1177225] 96604] 486

Pris tals :

Shipmnenis 10,884 10,746 10890} +13 43] +19 11,161 11,091 10,966 +18
New orders | 10747 | 10452 | 10955} +28] 46] +85] voor} 11233 | 0789 | = +20
Unfilled orders’ | 19/838 | 19/975 269} 07) 15) +03] 203560] 207715 1,069 24
Industrial machinery and equipment :
Shipments sss oon 21503| 21,701] 20838] 09] +44 02} 2092 | 24557) 20557] +18
New orders | 20966 | 211382] oe] 19) +36) 17! oa] 23749] 20/003] +23
Unfilled orders’ | 517763 | 52300} 52/619} 10] 06] = oa | S1%B03 254} 55,459 65
Electronic and other
Sean gpment = 17486] 17,759} 17,340 as} 424] +14 16822] 18,737] 16,197 +39
New orders | 17332 | 17/380 | 16996] 03} 423] 21] 16997] 18297 | 16°97 00
Unfilled orders’ | 46672 | 46826] 47196} 03] 08) “0:7 | 47280] = a7T05] 501522 64
a aes cauipment : 33403] 33543| 33617] 04] 02] +92] 34,528] 35,801] 31,501
New orders | g 32137 | _30030| +61] +70} +16] 34844] 35497| 27914
Unlilled orders’ 02021 267,360 | 266,677 | 268 +03] 05] “3 | 268%616 | 268" wan
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?

Totals ipments . 41,286 | 42,256 35] 23] +14] +34] 39592] 46535] 39,103] +13
Ree ocders | 40°26. arom | 3757 | 20| 493) 47) 3762] 48373] 3x oso} tio
Uae wes 37987 k 382078 | 03} 03] 11] 3801748 | 382719 | 400'816 50
Ne iecents 32,777| 33,863 | — 32,800 32] +32 8} 31,569] 37,822] 30,789 +25

Rhipments +++ 3782 | 34103] 31186] 68) = 494a| Ta | 307723] 37800] 37882] +102
Unfilled orders’ 22112! 239,413 | 240, aes} = 4] $0 7) 239,482 | 240%328 | 2511625 48
Excluding aircraft and parts 26601] 27076] 25088] -18| +42] -04] 25,425} 30,200] 24071 +31
Shipments 26059 | 26,764] 251955] 26] 431} 20] 25032] 297386] 23/809} +51
New orders, - «++ 79131 | 7673 | 79985] 07 | oa Oo} 79200] 79593} 85/354 31
Defense: 8,509 8,393, ggss] +14 55] +58 8,023 8,713 8,314
Shipments ». «« 481 6975 6390 | +216) +93) 182 6,898 8013 6198
Rew orders, 140404 | 140/492 | 141/910 00] “-10} 17} 14266 | 142391 | 149%191

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

1 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted

for trading-day or calendar-month variations.
Based on advance sample.

> The Capital Goods industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment,

metalworking machinery, special i

Justry machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical ansmission and

distribution equipment, electrical industal apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and
tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital goods inciude : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry ‘Year ago ‘Apr. | Apr. 1991-| Year ago Apr. | Apr. 1991-| Year ago Apr. | Apr. 1991-
Apr. 1991 | 1987-1991 | Mar. 1992| Apr. 1991] 1987-1991] Mar. 1992] Apr. 1991| 1987-1991 | Mar. 1992
Durable goods 00 01 02 Or 04 04 0.0 On 01
Primary metals . . eee 03 04 04 07 1.0 07 02 04 03
Industria! machinery and equipment. | 04 09 06 09 19 08 01 04 02

Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 04 os 03 07 05 09 04 03 04
Transportation equipment . 01 03 04 08 06 06 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nondefense capital goods . 09 08 06 03 13 14 0.0 02 Ol
Defense capital goods . . 0.0 06 05 70 27 24 0.2 on OL

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without

regard to sign, for the months specified,


Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

150 150
New Orders

140 | Shipments |~| 140

130 ~+ 130

120 7 120

110+ ~ 110

100 i L i i 1 i i i 1 1 i 1 1 100

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr
Apr. 1990 - Apr. 1992

NonDefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45

New Orders
40 Shipments | 40

25 1 1 L 1 1 i 1 1 1 i 1 i 1 25
Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr

Apr. 1990- Apr. 1992

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.