U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-11

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

December 23, 2004

CB-04-248

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

November 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in November increased $3.1 billion or 1.6 percent to $198.9 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.9 percent October decrease. Excluding

transportation, new orders decreased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.7 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 11.1 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $4.3 billion or 8.2 percent to $57.1 billion, due to nondefense aircraft and

parts, which increased $3.8 billion. 

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in November decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $199.4 billion. This

followed a 0.3 percent October increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2004 were 10.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Machinery, down following two consecutive increases, had the largest decrease, $0.9 billion or 3.5 percent to $24.9 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in November, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, increased $6.8

billion or 1.2 percent to $550.1 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent October increase and was at the highest level since the series

was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992.

Transportation equipment, up following three consecutive decreases, had the largest increase, $4.4 billion or 1.7 percent to

$262.3 billion. This was at the highest level since June 2001. 

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in November, up twelve consecutive months, increased $2.7 billion or 1.0

percent to $283.1 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent October increase.

Transportation equipment, up two consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $69.9 billion. 

Primary metals, up thirteen consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 2.3 percent to $21.3 billion and was at the highest

level since April 2001. 

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in November decreased $4.0 billion or 31.8 percent to $8.6

billion. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 2.0 percent to $8.2 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to

$149.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 1.3 percent to $19.8 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in November increased $5.3 billion or 8.1 percent to

$70.1 billion. Shipments decreased $1.6 billion or 2.4 percent to $64.0 billion. Unfilled orders increased $6.1 billion or 2.6

percent to $242.7 billion. Inventories increased $1.7 billion or 1.5 percent to $111.4 billion.

! REVISED OCTOBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries are: new

orders, $372.5 billion (revised from $371.5 billion); shipments, $376.6 billion (revised from $375.9 billion); unfilled orders,

$543.3 billion (revised from $543.0 billion); and total inventories, $465.7 billion (revised from $464.6 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published January 4, 2005 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for

December is scheduled for January 27 at 8:30 A.M. EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Nov Oct Sep Oct - Sep - Aug - Nov Oct Nov Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Nov 2 Oct r Sep 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 199,433 199,911 199,341 -0.2 0.3 -1.0 196,548 204,159 179,050 2,164,461 1,961,356 10.4

 New Orders 4

.............................. 198,855 195,719 197,440 1.6 -0.9 1.0 195,052 197,817 176,103 2,123,607 1,911,513 11.1

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 146,740 146,741 145,559 0.0 0.8 -0.8 144,137 148,250 127,031 1,568,710 1,393,481 12.6

 New Orders 4.............................. 141,760 142,950 144,842 -0.8 -1.3 2.8 138,695 143,903 123,732 1,522,622 1,343,922 13.3

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 189,906 190,142 189,929 -0.1 0.1 -0.8 186,932 194,642 169,948 2,058,470 1,864,164 10.4

 New Orders 4.............................. 188,797 182,044 185,750 3.7 -2.0 -0.1 185,669 185,355 165,843 2,014,758 1,806,857 11.5

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 136,272 137,238 136,310 -0.7 0.7 -0.7 134,116 139,040 121,357 1,471,418 1,326,868 10.9

 New Orders 4.............................. 143,048 140,303 141,244 2.0 -0.7 1.8 140,339 140,129 125,009 1,508,466 1,341,518 12.4

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 14,679 14,478 14,585 1.4 -0.7 0.5 14,037 14,819 10,370 152,042 121,029 25.6

 New Orders.............................. 14,596 14,045 14,449 3.9 -2.8 -3.2 13,704 13,611 11,018 154,330 122,113 26.4

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 23,284 22,970 23,195 1.4 -1.0 0.1 22,918 24,026 19,744 250,528 225,900 10.9

 New Orders.............................. 23,718 23,803 23,228 -0.4 2.5 -1.4 23,080 24,677 20,465 257,552 226,891 13.5

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 24,946 25,857 25,369 -3.5 1.9 1.9 23,163 25,504 19,826 267,847 231,007 15.9

 New Orders.............................. 25,901 26,798 26,196 -3.3 2.3 3.4 24,239 26,536 20,893 275,435 230,836 19.3

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 40,338 40,271 38,889 0.2 3.6 -2.7 40,376 39,423 36,224 421,431 373,646 12.8

 New Orders 4.............................. 33,186 34,642 36,878 -4.2 -6.1 13.2 33,022 34,021 29,924 354,084 319,790 10.7

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 9,201 9,566 8,814 -3.8 8.5 2.8 8,450 9,908 7,481 93,255 82,359 13.2

 New Orders.............................. 9,183 8,818 9,778 4.1 -9.8 17.4 8,778 9,153 7,788 93,026 83,106 11.9 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,819 7,045 6,892 -3.2 2.2 -8.0 6,915 6,496 6,836 74,479 67,854 9.8

 New Orders.............................. 6,721 10,341 9,570 -35.0 8.1 35.5 6,965 10,219 5,991 79,441 75,615 5.1

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 7,354 7,257 6,835 1.3 6.2 -8.6 7,719 7,431 6,599 77,902 64,493 20.8

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 9,057 8,941 8,920 1.3 0.2 -3.0 9,159 8,864 8,545 97,133 92,358 5.2

 New Orders.............................. 9,297 8,887 9,176 4.6 -3.1 -2.8 9,430 8,901 8,389 99,178 92,504 7.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 52,693 53,170 53,782 -0.9 -1.1 -1.6 52,411 55,909 52,019 595,751 567,875 4.9

 New Orders.............................. 57,095 52,769 52,598 8.2 0.3 -3.5 56,357 53,914 52,371 600,985 567,591 5.9

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 37,675 37,446 38,282 0.6 -2.2 -0.9 37,179 40,783 35,528 426,080 408,830 4.2

 New Orders.............................. 37,532 37,015 38,412 1.4 -3.6 -1.2 37,261 40,137 36,079 426,870 409,655 4.2 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,601 6,253 6,306 -10.4 -0.8 -0.1 5,677 5,763 6,330 64,131 60,771 5.5

 New Orders.............................. 9,587 5,837 5,557 64.2 5.0 -17.1 9,610 4,589 5,111 72,362 52,280 38.4

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,393 3,485 3,427 -2.6 1.7 -8.0 3,406 3,393 3,257 39,860 35,703 11.6

 New Orders.............................. 3,386 3,305 2,407 2.5 37.3 -13.4 2,845 2,621 3,126 31,801 38,824 -18.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 34,436 34,224 34,601 0.6 -1.1 -1.1 34,484 35,614 32,322 379,729 349,541 8.6

 New Orders.............................. 35,062 34,775 34,915 0.8 -0.4 -0.4 35,220 36,157 33,043 382,043 351,788 8.6

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 72,153 73,916 72,403 -2.4 2.1 -0.8 69,649 72,474 64,186 776,339 698,182 11.2

 New Orders.............................. 78,696 77,421 77,770 1.6 -0.4 6.0 75,975 75,641 65,104 803,237 711,489 12.9

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 64,003 65,596 64,357 -2.4 1.9 -0.3 61,397 64,306 56,457 685,764 615,266 11.5

 New Orders.............................. 70,104 64,823 67,076 8.1 -3.4 3.2 67,857 63,914 56,343 706,915 621,532 13.7

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 61,934 63,005 61,753 -1.7 2.0 -0.3 59,215 62,142 53,325 659,940 587,823 12.3

 New Orders......................... 63,515 62,394 65,069 1.8 -4.1 5.4 61,208 62,670 54,051 671,705 600,327 11.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,150 8,320 8,046 -2.0 3.4 -4.5 8,252 8,168 7,729 90,575 82,916 9.2

 New Orders.............................. 8,592 12,598 10,694 -31.8 17.8 27.5 8,118 11,727 8,761 96,322 89,957 7.1

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Nov Oct Sep Oct - Sep - Aug - Nov Oct Nov 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Nov 2 Oct r Sep 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 550,085 543,309 540,244 1.2 0.6 0.9 539,464 533,241 495,329 8.9

 Total Inventories....................... 283,076 280,381 278,013 1.0 0.9 0.3 284,089 281,173 262,264 8.3

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 287,736 285,362 281,896 0.8 1.2 2.2 282,949 280,672 251,197 12.6

 Total Inventories....................... 213,208 211,649 209,456 0.7 1.0 0.7 213,744 211,763 194,700 9.8

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 383,482 377,237 378,078 1.7 -0.2 0.7 378,649 372,193 343,320 10.3

 Total Inventories....................... 258,648 256,142 253,855 1.0 0.9 0.3 259,591 256,803 238,717 8.7

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 550,085 543,309 540,244 1.2 0.6 0.9 539,464 533,241 495,329 8.9

 Total Inventories....................... 221,433 218,883 216,623 1.2 1.0 0.3 222,596 219,933 205,635 8.2

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 19,491 19,574 20,007 -0.4 -2.2 -0.7 18,290 18,623 15,543 17.7

 Total Inventories....................... 21,323 20,843 20,161 2.3 3.4 2.6 21,539 20,930 17,343 24.2

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 46,097 45,663 44,830 1.0 1.9 0.1 45,045 44,883 37,891 18.9

 Total Inventories....................... 34,815 34,657 34,339 0.5 0.9 1.0 34,590 34,588 30,778 12.4

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 51,198 50,243 49,302 1.9 1.9 1.7 50,470 49,394 42,249 19.5

 Total Inventories....................... 45,531 45,094 44,925 1.0 0.4 0.5 46,011 45,207 41,579 10.7

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 141,626 141,424 139,796 0.1 1.2 3.6 139,711 139,346 129,454 7.9

 Total Inventories....................... 50,082 49,745 49,095 0.7 1.3 0.2 50,559 50,056 47,613 6.2

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,293 8,311 9,059 -0.2 -8.3 11.9 8,576 8,248 8,871 -3.3

 Total Inventories....................... 6,653 6,509 6,439 2.2 1.1 2.5 7,021 6,546 6,278 11.8 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 55,263 55,361 52,065 -0.2 6.3 5.4 54,731 54,681 52,508 4.2

 Total Inventories....................... 11,008 11,007 10,798 0.0 1.9 -0.8 11,179 11,113 11,342 -1.4

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,475 15,235 15,289 1.6 -0.4 1.7 15,460 15,189 13,938 10.9

 Total Inventories....................... 12,950 13,008 13,059 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 12,822 12,865 12,253 4.6

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 262,349 257,947 258,348 1.7 -0.2 -0.5 256,515 252,569 244,132 5.1

 Total Inventories....................... 69,868 68,732 68,557 1.7 0.3 -0.7 70,345 69,410 67,564 4.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,893 15,036 15,467 -1.0 -2.8 0.8 14,410 14,328 12,958 11.2

 Total Inventories....................... 22,115 21,962 21,947 0.7 0.1 1.3 22,004 21,918 20,137 9.3 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 114,194 110,208 110,624 3.6 -0.4 -0.7 113,302 109,369 103,003 10.0

 Total Inventories....................... 23,705 23,044 23,092 2.9 -0.2 -4.4 24,168 23,641 24,652 -2.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 55,075 55,082 55,262 0.0 -0.3 -1.8 52,711 53,272 59,085 -10.8

 Total Inventories....................... 11,841 11,840 11,729 0.0 0.9 1.9 11,887 11,927 11,135 6.8

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,849 13,223 12,672 4.7 4.3 2.5 13,973 13,237 12,122 15.3

 Total Inventories....................... 48,507 48,302 47,877 0.4 0.9 0.4 48,223 48,117 45,134 6.8

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 391,709 385,166 381,661 1.7 0.9 1.4 384,695 378,369 352,018 9.3

 Total Inventories....................... 131,172 129,214 128,690 1.5 0.4 -0.1 132,831 130,016 125,836 5.6

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 242,736 236,635 237,408 2.6 -0.3 1.2 240,698 234,238 219,668 9.6

 Total Inventories....................... 111,359 109,661 109,235 1.5 0.4 -0.3 112,989 110,497 106,691 5.9

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 152,195 150,614 151,225 1.0 -0.4 2.2 151,049 149,056 140,775 7.3

 Total Inventories.................. 94,275 93,112 92,513 1.2 0.6 0.6 95,458 93,436 89,143 7.1

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 148,973 148,531 144,253 0.3 3.0 1.9 143,997 144,131 132,350 8.8

 Total Inventories....................... 19,813 19,553 19,455 1.3 0.5 0.9 19,842 19,519 19,145 3.6

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 4,000 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,000 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,000 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.

2005 Release Dates for M3 Survey

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M.

Dec 2004 1/27/05 2/3/05

Jan 2005 2/24/05 3/4/05

Feb 2005 3/24/05 3/31/05

Mar 2005 4/27/05 5/3/05

Apr 2005 5/25/05 6/2/05

May 2005 6/24/05 7/5/05

Jun 2005 7/27/05 8/2/05

Jul 2005 8/24/05 8/30/05

Aug 2005 9/28/05 10/4/05

Sep 2005 10/27/05 11/3/05

Oct 2005 11/29/05 12/6/05

Nov 2005 12/23/05