- —__— — —_— ——— = SONOM
ED STATES DEPARTMENT OF “ “AND

UNIT!
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
z=
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
WASHINGTON, DC 20230

U.S. Census Bureau For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 763-4673 October 25, 2002
For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832 CB-02-139
M3-1(02)-9

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS! SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
September 2002

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars and exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $10.5 billion or 5.9 percent to $167.6 billion, the
Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.6 percent August decrease and was the largest
decrease since November 2001 which also had a 5.9 percent decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.0 percent.
Excluding defense, new orders decreased 6.0 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2002 were 0.6 percent below the same period a year
ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $9.3 billion or 16.1 percent to $48.4 billion and was the largest decrease since
November 2001, led by nondefense aircraft and parts which decreased by $4.2 billion.

© SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in September decreased $1.9 billion or 1.1 percent to $173.9 billion. This followed a
1.6 percent August decrease. Year to date, shipments for 2002 were 1.4 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $0.6 billion or 1.2 percent to $52.2 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts which
decreased $1.4 billion.

© UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $6.3 billion or 1.3 percent to $485.0 billion. This
followed a 0.5 percent August increase and was at the lowest level since October 1996.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $3.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $251.3 billion, due to nondefense aircraft and parts
which decreased $1.5 billion. Computers and electronic products, down twenty consecutive months, decreased $2.1 billion or 1.9
percent to $108.7 billion, due to communications equipment which decreased $2.8 billion.

@ INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in September, down twenty consecutive months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2
percent to $263.5 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent August decrease and was at the lowest level since December 1995.

Transportation equipment, down six of the last seven months and at the lowest level since January 1998, had the largest decrease, $0.3
billion or 0.4 percent to $70.8 billion, due to nondefense aircraft and parts which decreased $0.8 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in September decreased $0.3 billion or 4.1 percent to $6.7 billion.
Shipments increased $0.3 billion or 4.3 percent to $6.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $125.2 billion.
Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $18.5 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in September decreased $7.5 billion or 12.6 percent to $52.1
billion, the largest decrease since December 1997. Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $56.6 billion. Unfilled orders,
down nineteen of the last twenty months and at the lowest level since April 1996, decreased $4.5 billion or 2.1 percent to $211.0 billion.
Inventories, down twenty consecutive months and at the lowest level since June 1996, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $113.2
billion.

© REVISED AUGUST DATA Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $325.5
billion (revised from $326.6 billion); shipments, $323.2 billion (revised from $324.2 billion); unfilled orders, $491.3 billion (revised
from $491.4 billion); and total inventories, $428.2 billion (revised from $427.9 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will
be published November 4, 2002 at 10:00 A.M EST. The advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled for November 27 at 10:00 A.M EST.


Fable 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments and New Orders
ns of Dollars]

‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Sep ‘Aua Jul Ava Jul - Jun - Sep ‘Aua Seo Seo
2002? 2002' 2002 Seo? Aug" Jul 20027 2002' 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Shioments, 173.910] 175.825] 178.739] 44 “1.5 3.2] 196.139] 179.023] 178.840} 44
New Orders. en 167.633] 178.123 179.274 539) 06 85] 175.917] 178.211] 168.002 47
Eveludina transaortation:
DMEM... ooo ene 121.700] 122.997] 123.782 aa 08 17] 130.592] 123.702] 127.882 24
New Orders. 149.215 120,390] 121.870} -110 “1.2 29] 126.380] 119,053) 121.707 38
Excludina datanse*
ioments. 165.770] 168.061] 171.014 14) 17 35] 177.135] 171.561] 170.892 37
New Orders..20000000000000. 159.646] 169.856] 168.840} 60 06 69] 167.781] 171.753] 161.219 at
Manufacturina with unfilled ord.
‘Shipments. sce 122.160] 122.474] 123.835] 03] a4 19) 131.117 127.588 28
New Orders 115883] 124.772| 124.370} TA 03 95] 120.895 116.750} 36
Primary metals:
Shipments, see 11,328] 11.394 11.355] 06 03 13) 11.489) 11.030) 42
New Orders. 2 14.331 11.411 11.205] 07 18] 03 111015 10.412 58
Fabricated metal products:
Shioments. 21.231 21.943 21.353 05 00 15) 21.830) 22.414] 21.159] 32
New Orders. 21.232 201803 21.212] 24 1.9) 27 21'332| 24.446 20,063} 63
22.867 23.220) 23,257 15 0.2 14 24,069 22.407 23.436] 27
New Orders. 21'915] 22:182 23/004 12 36 10.3] 22.756 21.402] 23.155 A7
Computers and elactronic nroducts:*
26.352 26.524) 26.943] 0.8 “1.8 34 30,891 24.823 30.885] 00
New Orders... : 24.284 25.825 26.359 60 2) 32 28.867 22/903] 27.518] 49
Computers and retated products:
Shipments. 6.795 6.854] 7.072| 09) 34 13.4 8.603 6.062 8,269} 40
New Orders. 7.403} 6771 6.70 93 00 13.0 8.919 6.058 7.453} 19.7
Communications eauioment:
5.409] 5.476] 5.447] 12 05 -23 6.304] 4971 7.860} 165
New oraers . 2.582| 5.376| 5.544] 52.0 3) 92 4:207| 31849) 6.015 -30.1
Semiconductors*
iments. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)} (NAY
New Orders... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) i) (NA)
Electrical eauloment. apollances.
‘and comoonents:
‘Shipments, 8.836] 8.914) 9.106] 24 1.9) 9.735 8.919 10.216| AT
New Orders. 9.142] 8.874 8.637] 27 64) 91649 8,842] 95524] 13
Transportation equipment:
Shioments, 52,210 52.828] $4,957| -39) 67 55.547] $5.921 50,958] 90
New Orders. en 48.418| 57.733] 57.404 06] 226 49.537] 59,158 46.295] 70
Motor vehicles and parts:
Shioments........ 37.634 38.990] 40.213] 3.) 83 39.065} 41.739] 34,060] 147
New Orders. en 37.561 38.637 40.417| 44) 86 38.793} 41.153 33.704] 15.1
Nondefense aircraft and pai
Shipments, - 6.287| 5.678] 6.555 107 13.4 67 7.030 5.361 8.401
New Orders..." 4837 9,005] 6.181 46:3] 45.7 132.1 4.430] 8.895 5.583}
Defense aircraft and parts
Shipments... . 3.183} 2.963} 3.142} 74 57 04 3.614 2.914 3.007 202
New Orders. 7 2/922] 31107] 6.212] 60 -50.0 137.1 2'942| 2.280 2.408} 222
All other durable aoods:
‘Shioments..... coseeeneeee 31.086] 31.602 31.768] “16 05 12] 32.578 33.340 31.156] 46
New Orders..2000.000 31311 31.295 311453 01 05 14] 32.761 32:832| 31.035] 56
Capital aoods:*
‘Shipments... 63.372] 63.447 64.738] 0.4 -2.0) 27] 70.188 60.989] 70.210} 00
New Orders. 58.767 66.588 62.423] 417 67 3.) 64.590 61.680 63.456] 18
Nondetense capital aoods:
hioments. - see 56.582] 56.937| $8,266 -06 -23 35 62.798 54,766 63.463} 10
New Orders..00000000.. 52,055 59.590 56.933} “126 47] 24 57.694) 56.148] 57.705] 00
Excluding aircraft:
ShipMENS aces seeennee 53,339] 54.315] 54,836 1.0 29) 59.518 52.352 59.313 03
New Orders. 49.919 53.419] 53.798] 0.7] 67] 58/521 50,185 55.168} 06
Defense canital aood
SHIOMENS...oecsovevneeeee 6.790] 6.510 6.472 43) 0.6] “36 7.380} 6.223] 6.747| 95
New Orders... 6.712 6.998] 5.490 44 275] -12:3| 6.896 5.532] 5.751 199

NA Not Available "Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adiusted for tradina-dav and calendar-month variations: unfilled orders and tot
for tradina-day or calendar-month variations.

inventories are as of the end of the period and are not adiustec

{ basedjon advance samole, Estimates of manufacturers shioments. inventories. and orders are sublac to survey errar and revision. One maior component of survey arrr is nonsamoling error. which include
errors of con ponse and nonreoortina. Since probability imoling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey desian, methodoloay.
Sind data imitations are Contained in our most recent annual Benchmark oubsteation, Current indusitel Reports: MS- 101 ”

‘Manufacturers’ Shioments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001

? The Capital Goods industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance: farm machinery and eauioment: construction machinery: minina. oll. and aas field machinery: industrial machinerv: vendina. taut

and other machinery: photoaraphie equipment: metalworking machinery: turbines and generators: other power transmission equipment: pumps and comoressors: material handlina equioment: all other mactir
i ‘other comouter perioheral equipment: communications equioment: search and nav i ‘measuring, and control

‘and components: heavy duty trucks! aircraft ralroad roling stock: shios and boats: office and inathutional furniture

'strumer
‘medical equipment and

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equioment. aircraft: missiles, soace vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and naviaation equipment.

* Aaareaste estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of larae semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey. the
Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

* Due to the number of larae semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey. the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor
shipments, orders, or inventories.



Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Se: T
Monthiy Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Seo Aua Jul Aua - Jul - Jun - Seo Aug Seo Seo
2002? 2002‘ 2002 Seo? Aua! Jul 2002? 2002° 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:*
Unfilled Orders... (484,985) 491,262] 488,964} -1.3) 0.5) 0.1 479,117) 489,339} 507.889} 5.7
Total Inventories. 263,504) 263,985} 264,398} 0.2) 0.2) 0.4) 263,345} 267.227} 284,151 73
Excludina transnortation
Unfilled Orders... 233.710} 236.195} 238,802! Ad Ad 0.8) 231,227] 235,439} 255,457] 95
Total Inventories. 192,666) 192,830) 193,039) 04 O41 0.0 191,746] 194,608) 208,193] 79
. 339,231 345,355} 343,560} 0.5] 0.6} 336,442! 345,796} 379,783] 14
Total Inventories. ee 241,480} (242,021 242,879} 0.4) 01 241,033} 244,593} 262,323) 8.1
ufacturina with unfilled orders:*
Unfilled Orders. 484,985) 491,262] 488,964) 1,3) 0.5] o1 479,117) 489,339) 507.889} 5.7
Total Inventories. 213.864) 214,923} 215,198] 0.5} 01 0.6 (213,874) 217,557| 232,997) 8.2
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders. 15,949) 15,946) 15,929} 0.0) 01 -0.9) 15,524] 15,998 17,343] “105
Total inventories. 18,417) 18,425] 18,288} 0.0) 0.7] 0.0) 18,509} 18,495] 19,836, 67
Fabricated metal products
Unfilled Orders......... 38.045] 38,944] 39.484) 14) 0.4] 39,044) 30,542) 42.417 8.0
Total Inventories. 30.818 30,574} 0.6] 0.3] 30,712! 30,817, 32,801 6.4
Machinery:
Untied Orders. 45,957 47,947] -2.0} -2.2| 45,592 46,905] 55,528}
Total Inventories. wee 44,670) 44,973] 0.3] 0.4] 44,377) 45,034) 48.112)
Comouters and electronic nroducts:*
Unfilled Orders. . 108,704) 110,772] 191,471 0.6] 0.5] 107,151 109,175} 114.874 67
Total Inventories. 42,596 42,712] 42,992! 0.7] 0.0] 42,316] 43,971 49,390} 14.3
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders... 6,789} 6,181 6,264) 98 1,3) 46) 6,596] 6,280} 6.688) “14
Total Inventories... 7,345} 6,851 6,940) 72 1,3) -1.6] 7,055} 7,265) 7.632) 76
Communications eauiome:
Unfilled Orders... 38,805) 41,632] 41,732 6.8) 0.2 0.2) 38,058 40,245) 42.767} 11.0
Total Inventories...... 9,304) 9,970) 10,260) 6.7) 2.6] 1.3) 9,305} 10,155) 12.973} -28.3
Semiconductors:”
Unfilled Orders. (NA)] {NAD} (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (Na) ny) (Nay} (NAD
Total Inventories. (NA)} (NA)} (NA) (NA)} (NA) (NA) (Na) (Nay (NA)} «NAD
Electrical eauioment. appliances.
and components:
Unfilled Orders. 14,836) 14,530) 14,570} 24 -0.3) 3. 14,521 14,607] 15,113] 3.9
Total Inventories... . 12,811 12,888} 13,048} 0.6] 1.2] -0.4 12,466} 12,826} 13,554] 8.0
Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Orders. . 251,275} 255,067) 250,162} -1.5) 2.0) 1.0) 247,890} 253,900} 252,432! 18
Total Inventories. 70,838 71,155) 71,359) 0.4) 0.3) 1.4 71,599) 72,619) 75,958} 57
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 12,556} 12,629) 12,982] 0.6} +2. 1.6] 12,117] 12,389) 12,195} 0.6
Total inventories. 20,710} 20,295) (20,469) 20 0.9) 0.8) 21,040) 20,629 21,179) 0.7
Nondefense Aircraft and parts
filled Or 114,520] 115,970] 112,643] 1.3} 3.0} 0.3) 114,199] 116,799) 133,101 14.2
Total inventories. . (28,672) 29,448) 29.733 2.6] -1.0) 1.2) 28.971 29,940} 33,498] 13.5
fense Alrcraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders... 57,743] 58,004 57.860) 0.4) 0.2) 5.6) 56.658 57,330} 40,588) 39.6
Total Inventories. 10,902] 10,876] 10,613} 0.2) 25) 2.2) 10,983} 11,2891 10.024) 96
All other durable aood:
led Orders. 9.319) 9,094 9.401 2.5) -3.3) 3.2) 9.395) 9,212) 10.185 78
yor ‘inventories 43,354 43,267 43,164] 02 0.2) 0.0) 43,366) 43.465] 44,500} 2.5
Capital aoods:*
Unfilled Orders... . 336,262] 340,867} 337,726} -1.4) 0.9] 0.7] 331,957] 337,555] 353,946} 6.2
Total Inventories.............. 131,695) 132,584) 133,070] 0.7) 0.4) ad 131,333] 134,753} 145,950} -10.0
Nondefense cavital aoods:
Unfilled Order 211,030} 215.557} 212,904) “2.4 12) 0.6) 209,336 214,440} 242,301 13.6
Total Inventories... 113,194] 114,022] 115,028] 0.7 0.9) 0.5] 112.676] 115,663] 126.967} N13
Excludina aircraft:
Unfilled Orders. 125,569) 128,989) 129,885} 2.7] 0.7] 0.8) 123,875) 127.872 140,794] 12.0
Total Inventories... 90,855} 91,120} 91,692 0.3) 0.8} 0.1 89,987] 92,336 99,954) 10.0
Defense capital aoods:
Unfilled Orders... . 125,232! 125,310} 124,822) 01 0.4 -0.8 122,621 123,115) 111,555} 99
Total inventories. 18,501, 18.562 18,042 03 29) -45] 18.657 19.090, 18,983 47

‘See footnotes at end of Table 4