U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-09

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

October 28, 2003

CB-03-170

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

September 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in September, up four of the last five months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.8 percent

to $176.3 billion, the Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease.

Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.6 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2003 were 0.5 percent above the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products, up five consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 2.6 percent to $31.5 billion, led

by electromedical, measuring, and control instruments.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in September, up four of the last five months, increased $4.5 billion or 2.5 percent to

$181.6 billion. This followed a 2.6 percent August decrease. Year-to-date, shipments for 2003 were 0.7 percent below the same period

a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $3.0 billion or 6.0 percent to $52.8 billion, led by

motor vehicles and parts, which increased by $2.3 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in September, up seven of the last eight months, increased $0.6 billion or 0.1

percent to $490.7 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent August increase.

Computers and electronic products, up five consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $127.0 billion,

led by communications equipment, which increased by $0.9 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in September, down thirty-one of the past thirty-two months, decreased $1.7 billion

or 0.7 percent to $261.3 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent August decrease.

All major industry groups decreased. Primary metals had the largest decrease, $0.4 billion or 2.4 percent to $17.4 billion, led by iron

and steel mills.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in September decreased $2.7 billion or 26.7 percent to $7.4 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 2.4 percent to $8.0 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $133.4 billion. 

Inventories decreased 0.1 percent to $18.5 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in September increased $2.0 billion or 3.4 percent to $59.2

billion. Shipments increased $1.6 billion or 2.9 percent to $58.1 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $218.4

billion. Inventories decreased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $105.9 billion.

! REVISED AUGUST DATA Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $329.3

billion (revised from $327.8 billion); shipments, $331.6 billion (revised from $331.3 billion); unfilled orders, $490.1 billion (revised

from $488.9 billion); and total inventories, $439.5 billion (revised from $439.7 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published November 5, 2003 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for

October is scheduled for November 26 at 8:30 A.M. EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep Change

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2003 2002 03/02

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 181,560 177,095 181,761 2.5 -2.6 2.8 196,851 177,176 190,546 1,589,145 1,599,619 -0.7

 New Orders 4.............................. 176,255 174,875 175,064 0.8 -0.1 1.6 188,295 170,744 174,517 1,541,241 1,533,041 0.5

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 128,790 127,297 128,567 1.2 -1.0 2.2 140,059 126,794 135,267 1,131,040 1,129,908 0.1

 New Orders 4.............................. 125,119 123,674 122,864 1.2 0.7 2.4 133,737 120,794 124,686 1,084,377 1,068,390 1.5

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 172,141 167,933 172,219 2.5 -2.5 2.5 186,607 168,279 181,564 1,510,008 1,530,330 -1.3

 New Orders 4.............................. 167,458 163,147 166,030 2.6 -1.7 2.1 179,601 161,198 165,688 1,457,054 1,461,213 -0.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 122,155 119,581 123,463 2.2 -3.1 3.2 131,900 119,192 131,599 1,077,143 1,101,173 -2.2

 New Orders 4.............................. 122,736 123,711 122,062 -0.8 1.4 0.7 130,057 118,941 121,596 1,080,965 1,076,824 0.4

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 10,696 10,576 10,826 1.1 -2.3 3.2 11,006 10,758 11,640 98,988 103,327 -4.2

 New Orders.............................. 10,632 11,006 10,885 -3.4 1.1 2.7 10,666 11,107 11,145 98,832 102,696 -3.8

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,250 19,965 20,883 1.4 -4.4 3.5 21,188 20,848 21,987 183,943 190,136 -3.3

 New Orders.............................. 20,486 20,511 20,695 -0.1 -0.9 4.1 21,183 20,926 21,169 183,879 189,080 -2.8

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 21,318 21,102 21,264 1.0 -0.8 2.0 22,094 20,345 22,454 189,713 193,989 -2.2

 New Orders.............................. 21,368 21,156 21,191 1.0 -0.2 3.4 21,824 20,285 21,211 188,266 185,178 1.7

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 35,683 35,301 35,125 1.1 0.5 0.7 41,750 33,241 38,158 301,534 288,910 4.4

 New Orders 4.............................. 31,471 30,673 30,085 2.6 2.0 2.6 36,053 27,155 30,106 255,664 239,122 6.9

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,012 7,934 8,583 1.0 -7.6 12.5 10,126 6,962 8,642 66,075 59,703 10.7

 New Orders.............................. 8,224 8,254 8,171 -0.4 1.0 3.5 10,130 7,528 8,994 66,781 59,503 12.2 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,439 6,531 6,564 -1.4 -0.5 -1.4 7,793 5,998 7,630 54,895 59,389 -7.6

 New Orders.............................. 7,387 6,980 7,135 5.8 -2.2 11.8 8,734 5,062 5,400 60,017 55,047 9.0

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 5,886 6,350 5,296 -7.3 19.9 -12.8 6,713 6,181 6,026 51,726 42,229 22.5

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,403 8,282 8,546 1.5 -3.1 3.1 9,457 8,190 9,467 75,161 77,717 -3.3

 New Orders.............................. 8,532 8,416 8,342 1.4 0.9 -0.6 9,317 8,273 9,310 75,228 77,301 -2.7

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 52,770 49,798 53,194 6.0 -6.4 4.3 56,792 50,382 55,279 458,105 469,711 -2.5

 New Orders.............................. 51,136 51,201 52,200 -0.1 -1.9 -0.2 54,558 49,950 49,831 456,864 464,651 -1.7

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 37,885 35,617 38,149 6.4 -6.6 5.7 40,275 36,471 38,900 329,660 340,968 -3.3

 New Orders.............................. 38,309 35,596 38,303 7.6 -7.1 6.1 40,537 36,176 38,490 329,586 340,747 -3.3 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,640 5,332 5,902 5.8 -9.7 -2.2 6,219 5,048 6,961 49,540 57,371 -13.6

 New Orders.............................. 4,721 4,912 5,555 -3.9 -11.6 -11.0 5,786 4,628 4,274 42,622 48,135 -11.5

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,521 3,413 3,448 3.2 -1.0 4.0 3,861 3,358 3,593 29,074 25,666 13.3

 New Orders.............................. 3,593 3,537 3,196 1.6 10.7 -18.5 3,288 2,511 2,923 32,563 30,973 5.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 32,440 32,071 31,923 1.2 0.5 2.6 34,564 33,412 31,561 281,701 275,829 2.1

 New Orders.............................. 32,630 31,912 31,666 2.2 0.8 1.4 34,694 33,048 31,745 282,508 275,013 2.7

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 66,104 64,270 66,381 2.9 -3.2 3.2 73,491 61,613 69,578 568,122 562,481 1.0

 New Orders.............................. 66,685 67,445 65,656 -1.1 2.7 -0.2 72,821 61,471 64,936 576,077 538,734 6.9

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 58,133 56,489 58,133 2.9 -2.8 2.2 64,962 53,933 62,190 500,782 504,019 -0.6

 New Orders.............................. 59,245 57,294 58,188 3.4 -1.5 1.5 65,524 53,085 57,329 503,413 481,673 4.5

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 55,448 54,087 55,277 2.5 -2.2 2.5 62,158 51,824 58,912 478,407 474,683 0.8

 New Orders......................... 57,132 54,972 55,017 3.9 -0.1 0.5 62,806 51,056 55,157 486,206 460,749 5.5

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,971 7,781 8,248 2.4 -5.7 10.6 8,529 7,680 7,388 67,340 58,462 15.2

 New Orders.............................. 7,440 10,151 7,468 -26.7 35.9 -11.3 7,297 8,386 7,607 72,664 57,061 27.3

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 490,670 490,089 485,959 0.1 0.8 -0.3 484,501 486,344 488,171 -0.8

 Total Inventories....................... 261,285 263,014 264,638 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 260,399 265,550 270,641 -3.8

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 244,386 242,171 239,444 0.9 1.1 -0.2 241,326 240,935 241,784 -0.2

 Total Inventories....................... 194,073 195,555 196,921 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 192,656 197,036 203,681 -5.4

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 337,945 336,742 335,178 0.4 0.5 -0.3 334,906 335,199 343,960 -2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 238,401 240,179 241,592 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 237,197 242,149 249,272 -4.8

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 490,670 490,089 485,959 0.1 0.8 -0.3 484,501 486,344 488,171 -0.8

 Total Inventories....................... 204,563 205,946 207,478 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 204,047 207,975 212,913 -4.2

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,502 14,566 14,136 -0.4 3.0 0.4 14,303 14,643 15,669 -8.7

 Total Inventories....................... 17,374 17,801 17,989 -2.4 -1.0 -1.3 17,335 17,782 18,650 -7.1

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 36,711 36,475 35,929 0.6 1.5 -0.5 36,836 36,841 38,668 -4.7

 Total Inventories....................... 30,861 31,066 31,115 -0.7 -0.2 -1.2 30,700 31,051 31,783 -3.4

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 41,464 41,414 41,360 0.1 0.1 -0.2 40,973 41,243 44,701 -8.3

 Total Inventories....................... 41,298 41,498 41,897 -0.5 -1.0 -0.3 40,972 41,668 43,066 -4.9

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 127,012 125,338 123,616 1.3 1.4 0.2 124,673 123,657 118,924 4.8

 Total Inventories....................... 46,863 46,978 47,496 -0.2 -1.1 -0.6 46,407 48,132 52,014 -10.8

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,934 8,722 8,402 2.4 3.8 -4.7 8,830 8,826 6,975 26.6

 Total Inventories....................... 6,257 6,230 6,088 0.4 2.3 -3.2 6,214 6,528 6,486 -4.2 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 51,097 50,149 49,700 1.9 0.9 1.2 49,869 48,928 45,617 9.3

 Total Inventories....................... 11,007 10,951 11,164 0.5 -1.9 -1.7 10,965 11,115 13,657 -19.7

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,056 13,927 13,793 0.9 1.0 -1.5 13,859 13,999 14,036 -1.3

 Total Inventories....................... 12,213 12,366 12,400 -1.2 -0.3 -1.0 11,884 12,306 12,747 -6.8

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 246,284 247,918 246,515 -0.7 0.6 -0.4 243,175 245,409 246,387 -1.3

 Total Inventories....................... 67,212 67,459 67,717 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 67,743 68,514 66,960 1.2

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,471 12,047 12,068 3.5 -0.2 1.3 12,059 11,797 11,865 1.6

 Total Inventories....................... 20,054 20,370 20,290 -1.6 0.4 -0.4 20,279 20,624 21,014 -3.5 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 104,747 105,666 106,086 -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 104,576 105,009 113,562 -7.9

 Total Inventories....................... 25,045 24,988 25,065 0.2 -0.3 -2.4 25,097 25,242 25,509 -1.6

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 60,491 60,419 60,295 0.1 0.2 -0.4 59,453 60,026 56,311 5.6

 Total Inventories....................... 10,803 10,627 10,875 1.7 -2.3 0.6 10,970 11,008 9,818 11.7

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 10,641 10,451 10,610 1.8 -1.5 -2.4 10,682 10,552 9,786 9.2

 Total Inventories....................... 45,464 45,846 46,024 -0.8 -0.4 0.2 45,358 46,097 45,421 -0.1

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 351,858 351,277 348,102 0.2 0.9 -0.2 346,666 347,336 340,854 1.7

 Total Inventories....................... 124,390 124,752 125,278 -0.3 -0.4 -1.1 123,991 126,468 130,759 -5.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 218,434 217,322 216,517 0.5 0.4 0.0 216,033 215,471 216,385 -0.2

 Total Inventories....................... 105,883 106,222 106,594 -0.3 -0.3 -1.2 105,292 107,519 112,981 -6.8

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 138,300 136,616 135,731 1.2 0.7 -0.2 136,070 135,422 131,008 3.9

 Total Inventories.................. 88,101 88,489 88,853 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 87,407 89,604 93,702 -6.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 133,424 133,955 131,585 -0.4 1.8 -0.6 130,633 131,865 124,469 5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 18,507 18,530 18,684 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 18,699 18,949 17,778 5.2

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.