With the cooperation of the Semiconductor Industry Association and many of its member companies, the Census Bureau is again able to

publish shipments data on this important sector of our economy. The Census Bureau will not publish orders data and will only publish

inventory data at higher level aggregates. Historic benchmark revisions included in this report were released August 19, 2003 and are

available on the M3 website.

U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-07

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

August 26, 2003

CB-03-133

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

July 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data

for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in July increased $1.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $174.0 billion, the Department of Commerce, U.S.

Census Bureau reported today. This was the third consecutive increase and followed a 2.6 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new

orders increased 1.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.4 percent. Year-to-date, new orders for 2003 were 0.1 percent below the

same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products, up three consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $29.9 billion, led by

communications equipment, which increased by $0.7 billion.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in July increased $4.7 billion or 2.6 percent to $181.4 billion. This was the third consecutive

increase and followed a 1.7 percent June increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2003 were 1.0 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up three consecutive months, had the largest increase, $2.0 billion or 4.0 percent to $53.0 billion, led by motor vehicles and

parts, which increased by $1.8 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $1.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $485.5 billion. This followed five

consecutive increases, including a 0.3 percent June increase.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $246.4 billion, led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased

by $0.4 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in July, down twenty-nine of the past thirty months, decreased $2.4 billion or 0.9 percent to

$263.9 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent June decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.1 billion or 1.6 percent to $67.1 billion, led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased

by $1.3 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in July decreased $1.0 billion or 12.2 percent to $7.4 billion. Shipments increased

$0.8 billion or 10.8 percent to $8.2 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $131.5 billion. Inventories decreased $0.2 billion

or 1.0 percent to $18.7 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in July increased $0.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $58.2 billion. Shipments

increased $1.5 billion or 2.6 percent to $58.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $216.3 billion. Inventories decreased

$2.0 billion or 1.9 percent to $105.8 billion.

! REVISED JUNE DATA Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $323.5 billion (revised from

$323.0 billion); shipments, $327.9 billion (revised from $327.5 billion); unfilled orders, $487.5 billion (revised from $487.6 billion); and total

inventories, $442.7 billion (revised from $443.4 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published September 4, 2003 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for

August is scheduled for September 25 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent Jul Jun May Jun - May -Apr - Jul Jun Jul 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 r Jul 2 Jun r May r 2003 2 2003 r 2002 r 2003 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 181,431 176,781 173,783 2.6 1.7 0.2 157,771 192,542 155,915 1,214,741 1,227,011 -1.0

 New Orders4.............................. 173,979 172,318 168,007 1.0 2.6 0.0 150,222 183,172 151,916 1,181,601 1,182,614 -0.1

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 128,402 125,801 124,292 2.1 1.2 0.1 119,284 137,337 117,376 864,060 867,809 -0.4

 New Orders4.............................. 122,095 120,016 118,225 1.7 1.5 1.0 114,456 128,513 112,033 829,578 826,939 0.3

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 171,909 167,988 165,033 2.3 1.8 0.3 149,384 182,735 149,000 1,154,813 1,174,243 -1.7

 New Orders4.............................. 165,059 162,754 158,502 1.4 2.7 0.5 144,594 173,841 144,357 1,115,717 1,126,159 -0.9

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 123,153 119,589 118,159 3.0 1.2 -0.1 108,734 130,130 108,681 825,616 846,025 -2.4

 New Orders4.............................. 121,207 121,228 118,454 0.0 2.3 -0.1 105,756 127,458 108,778 831,496 833,114 -0.2

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 10,827 10,488 10,825 3.2 -3.1 -0.1 10,101 10,938 10,793 77,172 79,738 -3.2

 New Orders.............................. 10,788 10,598 10,649 1.8 -0.5 -0.7 10,060 11,031 10,555 76,990 79,778 -3.5

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,631 20,174 20,222 2.3 -0.2 0.6 19,816 21,093 20,308 141,861 145,728 -2.7

 New Orders.............................. 20,401 19,940 20,186 2.3 -1.2 2.5 20,175 20,665 21,002 141,784 146,456 -3.2

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 21,290 20,841 20,861 2.2 -0.1 1.1 19,737 23,086 19,715 147,180 150,692 -2.3

 New Orders.............................. 20,917 20,554 19,971 1.8 2.9 -0.6 19,503 21,841 19,507 145,887 144,168 1.2

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 35,368 34,898 33,261 1.3 4.9 -1.8 30,503 39,922 28,463 226,794 219,949 3.1

 New Orders4.............................. 29,865 29,317 28,291 1.9 3.6 1.7 25,209 32,721 22,976 192,470 185,489 3.8

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,667 7,703 6,997 12.5 10.1 -11.2 7,566 9,312 5,877 49,218 44,842 9.8

 New Orders.............................. 8,159 7,967 7,640 2.4 4.3 -2.0 6,861 9,442 5,445 49,348 44,294 11.4 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,533 6,635 5,793 -1.5 14.5 -0.6 5,371 7,662 5,462 41,049 45,908 -10.6

 New Orders.............................. 7,110 6,361 6,326 11.8 0.6 -4.7 5,724 6,534 5,121 46,167 45,170 2.2

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 5,506 6,102 6,071 -9.8 0.5 3.4 4,571 6,698 4,096 39,020 31,486 23.9

 New Orders5

.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,523 8,289 8,311 2.8 -0.3 0.1 7,704 9,075 7,854 57,467 59,677 -3.7

 New Orders.............................. 8,370 8,355 8,226 0.2 1.6 -0.7 7,831 8,918 7,734 57,572 59,491 -3.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 53,029 50,980 49,491 4.0 3.0 0.3 38,487 55,205 38,539 350,681 359,202 -2.4

 New Orders.............................. 51,884 52,302 49,782 -0.8 5.1 -2.3 35,766 54,659 39,883 352,023 355,675 -1.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 37,937 36,100 35,153 5.1 2.7 0.0 26,088 38,296 26,652 252,746 260,457 -3.0

 New Orders.............................. 38,082 36,093 34,946 5.5 3.3 -0.6 26,466 38,018 27,083 252,672 261,246 -3.3 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,941 6,032 5,422 -1.5 11.3 3.4 4,708 7,060 5,026 38,258 45,094 -15.2

 New Orders.............................. 5,511 6,241 4,536 -11.7 37.6 -17.9 3,984 7,024 4,901 32,191 35,014 -8.1

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,435 3,315 3,214 3.6 3.1 -3.6 2,911 3,920 2,665 21,848 19,178 13.9

 New Orders.............................. 3,168 3,920 4,624 -19.2 -15.2 5.7 1,853 3,651 5,015 26,765 25,785 3.8

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 31,763 31,111 30,812 2.1 1.0 1.3 31,423 33,223 30,243 213,586 212,025 0.7

 New Orders.............................. 31,754 31,252 30,902 1.6 1.1 1.4 31,678 33,337 30,259 214,875 211,557 1.6

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 66,622 64,345 62,217 3.5 3.4 -0.4 59,592 72,389 56,544 433,196 432,514 0.2

 New Orders.............................. 65,532 65,842 63,388 -0.5 3.9 -2.3 56,618 70,505 52,735 441,937 412,913 7.0

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 58,387 56,914 54,779 2.6 3.9 -0.4 52,258 64,324 50,618 382,126 387,758 -1.5

 New Orders.............................. 58,164 57,448 55,367 1.2 3.8 -0.9 51,909 62,496 49,201 385,022 369,091 4.3

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 55,509 53,948 52,436 2.9 2.9 -0.9 50,063 60,637 48,113 364,663 364,112 0.2

 New Orders.......................... 55,054 54,825 53,705 0.4 2.1 1.0 49,776 59,397 46,991 372,563 356,297 4.6

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,235 7,431 7,438 10.8 -0.1 -0.7 7,334 8,065 5,926 51,070 44,756 14.1

 New Orders.............................. 7,368 8,394 8,021 -12.2 4.7 -11.0 4,709 8,009 3,534 56,915 43,822 29.9

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

5 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry.

6 Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately. 
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Jul Jun May Jun - May -Apr - Jul Jun Jul 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 r Jul 2 Jun r May r 2003 2 2003 r 2002 r 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 485,522 487,468 485,829 -0.4 0.3 0.1 486,559 489,537 499,609 -2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 263,859 266,254 268,449 -0.9 -0.8 -0.3 264,964 264,190 274,003 -3.3

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 239,157 239,958 239,641 -0.3 0.1 0.0 240,801 241,058 251,689 -4.3

 Total Inventories....................... 196,799 198,096 199,799 -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 197,354 196,853 206,744 -4.5

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 334,833 336,177 335,309 -0.4 0.3 -0.1 336,058 336,277 354,250 -5.1

 Total Inventories....................... 240,796 243,209 245,899 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2 241,728 241,138 253,248 -4.5

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 485,522 487,468 485,829 -0.4 0.3 0.1 486,559 489,537 499,609 -2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 206,649 209,162 211,245 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 207,465 207,567 216,080 -4.0

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,038 14,077 13,967 -0.3 0.8 -1.2 14,277 14,318 16,340 -12.6

 Total Inventories....................... 17,968 18,246 18,931 -1.5 -3.6 -0.8 17,943 18,068 18,485 -2.9

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 35,959 36,189 36,423 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 36,823 36,464 40,452 -9.0

 Total Inventories....................... 31,192 31,506 31,678 -1.0 -0.5 0.2 31,230 31,417 31,878 -2.0

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 41,125 41,498 41,785 -0.9 -0.7 -2.1 41,127 41,361 46,988 -12.5

 Total Inventories....................... 41,851 42,054 42,465 -0.5 -1.0 -0.4 41,609 41,626 43,548 -4.5

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 123,364 123,361 122,840 0.0 0.4 0.9 123,513 124,236 123,509 0.0

 Total Inventories....................... 47,359 47,784 48,074 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 47,979 47,266 54,049 -11.2

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,306 8,814 8,550 -5.8 3.1 8.1 8,254 8,959 6,627 24.6

 Total Inventories....................... 6,032 6,288 6,139 -4.1 2.4 0.0 6,109 6,105 6,661 -8.3 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 49,706 49,129 49,403 1.2 -0.6 1.1 49,865 49,512 49,221 1.3

 Total Inventories....................... 11,216 11,359 11,628 -1.3 -2.3 -1.1 11,322 11,123 15,330 -26.1

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders5

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories6...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,807 13,960 13,894 -1.1 0.5 -0.6 13,897 13,770 14,266 -2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 12,416 12,531 12,635 -0.9 -0.8 -0.1 12,439 12,502 13,336 -6.7

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 246,365 247,510 246,188 -0.5 0.5 0.1 245,758 248,479 247,920 -0.9

 Total Inventories....................... 67,060 68,158 68,650 -1.6 -0.7 0.1 67,610 67,337 67,259 0.5

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,059 11,914 11,921 1.2 -0.1 -1.7 12,059 11,681 12,875 -6.3

 Total Inventories....................... 20,253 20,375 20,557 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 20,633 20,052 21,035 -1.9 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 106,003 106,433 106,224 -0.4 0.2 -0.8 105,427 106,151 112,718 -6.5

 Total Inventories....................... 24,407 25,673 26,354 -4.9 -2.6 1.3 24,420 25,211 26,100 -6.4

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 60,281 60,548 59,943 -0.4 1.0 2.4 60,881 61,939 57,611 5.7

 Total Inventories....................... 10,933 10,811 10,484 1.1 3.1 -0.7 11,016 10,739 9,539 15.5

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 10,864 10,873 10,732 -0.1 1.3 0.8 11,164 10,909 10,134 10.2

 Total Inventories....................... 46,013 45,975 46,016 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 46,154 45,974 45,448 1.6

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 347,790 348,880 347,383 -0.3 0.4 0.3 347,452 350,426 345,000 0.7

 Total Inventories....................... 124,473 126,700 127,327 -1.8 -0.5 -0.2 124,805 125,403 133,565 -6.6

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 216,291 216,514 215,980 -0.1 0.2 0.3 216,298 216,647 220,064 -1.7

 Total Inventories....................... 105,786 107,833 109,069 -1.9 -1.1 -0.1 106,056 106,585 116,274 -8.8

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 135,588 136,043 135,166 -0.3 0.6 0.9 136,171 136,458 137,127 -0.7

 Total Inventories.................. 88,703 89,368 89,933 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 89,004 88,524 96,627 -7.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 131,499 132,366 131,403 -0.7 0.7 0.4 131,154 133,779 124,936 5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 18,687 18,867 18,258 -1.0 3.3 -1.0 18,749 18,818 17,291 8.4

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.