U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-08

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

September 25, 2003

CB-03-151

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

August 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in August, down for the first time since April, decreased $1.6 billion or 0.9 percent

to $173.3 billion, the Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.5 percent July increase. 

Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.6 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2003 were 0.4 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation had the largest decrease, $1.2 billion or 2.2 percent to $51.0 billion, led by motor vehicles and parts, which decreased by

$2.9 billion.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in August, down for the first time since April, decreased $5.3 billion or 2.9 percent to

$176.3 billion. This followed a 2.8 percent July increase and was the largest decrease since September 2001. Year-to-date, shipments

for 2003 were 1.2 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $3.6 billion or 6.7 percent to $49.6 billion, led by motor vehicles and parts, which

decreased by $2.7 billion. This was the first decrease since April in transportation and was the largest percent decrease since January

2001.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in August, up six of the past seven months, increased $3.3 billion or 0.7

percent to $489.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent July decrease. This was the largest percent increase since October 2001.

Transportation equipment, up six of the past seven months, had the largest increase, $1.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $247.9 billion, led by

defense ships and boats. Computers and electronic products also increased $1.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $125.0 billion, led by defense

search and navigation equipment.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in August, down thirty of the past thirty-one months, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.4

percent to $263.5 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent July decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $67.4 billion, led by defense aircraft and parts, which

decreased by $0.3 billion. Machinery also decreased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to 41.6 billion. 

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in August increased $2.6 billion or 35.3 percent to $10.1 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 6.6 percent to $7.7 billion. Unfilled orders increased $2.4 billion or 1.8 percent to $134.0 billion. 

Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $18.5 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August decreased $1.2 billion or 2.0 percent to $57.0 billion. 

Shipments decreased $1.8 billion or 3.0 percent to $56.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $217.2 billion. 

Inventories decreased $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $106.2 billion.

! REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $330.3 billion

(revised from $329.4 billion); shipments, $337.1 billion (revised from $336.9 billion); unfilled orders, $485.9 billion (revised from

$485.3 billion); and total inventories, $440.6 billion (revised from $440.4 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published October 2, 2003 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for

September is scheduled for October 28 at 8:30 A.M. EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Aug Jul Jun Jul - Jun - May - Aug Jul Aug Change

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Aug 2 Jul r Jun 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2003 2002 03/02

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 176,345 181,672 176,782 -2.9 2.8 1.7 177,233 158,057 182,062 1,392,248 1,409,073 -1.2

 New Orders 4.............................. 173,315 174,883 172,237 -0.9 1.5 2.5 170,579 150,753 175,910 1,352,635 1,358,524 -0.4

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 126,761 128,534 125,798 -1.4 2.2 1.2 126,758 119,366 126,832 990,890 994,641 -0.4

 New Orders 4.............................. 122,322 122,740 119,932 -0.3 2.3 1.4 120,543 114,702 116,765 950,293 943,704 0.7

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 167,254 172,113 167,964 -2.8 2.5 1.8 168,398 149,632 174,523 1,323,417 1,348,766 -1.9

 New Orders 4.............................. 161,568 165,818 162,650 -2.6 1.9 2.6 160,969 145,094 169,366 1,277,080 1,295,525 -1.4

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 119,377 123,382 119,631 -3.2 3.1 1.2 119,400 109,013 123,549 945,354 969,574 -2.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 122,662 121,881 121,162 0.6 0.6 2.3 118,801 106,115 122,114 950,623 955,228 -0.5

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 10,620 10,825 10,488 -1.9 3.2 -3.1 10,823 10,158 11,949 88,048 91,687 -4.0

 New Orders.............................. 11,097 10,785 10,598 2.9 1.8 -0.5 11,169 10,137 11,773 88,229 91,551 -3.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 19,969 20,886 20,179 -4.4 3.5 -0.2 20,937 19,873 22,421 162,850 168,149 -3.2

 New Orders.............................. 19,970 20,707 19,873 -3.6 4.2 -1.6 20,652 20,243 21,455 162,407 167,911 -3.3

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 21,029 21,255 20,854 -1.1 1.9 0.0 20,338 19,790 20,843 167,595 171,535 -2.3

 New Orders.............................. 21,068 21,206 20,502 -0.7 3.4 2.7 20,341 19,779 19,799 166,496 163,967 1.5

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 34,983 35,122 34,884 -0.4 0.7 4.9 33,077 30,217 30,803 259,604 250,752 3.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 30,031 30,061 29,328 -0.1 2.5 3.7 27,039 25,099 23,527 219,446 209,016 5.0

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 7,665 8,568 7,632 -10.5 12.3 9.1 6,854 7,358 6,219 55,833 51,061 9.3

 New Orders.............................. 7,957 8,148 7,896 -2.3 3.2 3.4 7,426 6,653 6,215 56,535 50,509 11.9 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,499 6,562 6,657 -1.0 -1.4 14.9 5,989 5,395 5,851 47,092 51,759 -9.0

 New Orders.............................. 6,770 7,114 6,383 -4.8 11.5 0.9 5,049 5,727 4,477 51,249 49,647 3.2

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 6,315 5,288 6,076 19.4 -13.0 0.1 6,055 4,406 4,717 44,882 36,203 24.0

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,244 8,534 8,286 -3.4 3.0 -0.3 8,195 7,748 8,573 65,690 68,250 -3.8

 New Orders.............................. 8,439 8,328 8,389 1.3 -0.7 2.0 8,371 7,850 8,500 65,989 67,991 -2.9

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 49,584 53,138 50,984 -6.7 4.2 3.0 50,475 38,691 55,230 401,358 414,432 -3.2

 New Orders.............................. 50,993 52,143 52,305 -2.2 -0.3 5.1 50,036 36,051 59,145 402,342 414,820 -3.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 35,434 38,097 36,102 -7.0 5.5 2.7 36,589 26,210 41,611 289,455 302,068 -4.2

 New Orders.............................. 35,369 38,251 36,095 -7.5 6.0 3.3 36,334 26,621 41,011 289,159 302,257 -4.3 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,311 5,899 6,033 -10.0 -2.2 11.3 5,020 4,723 5,316 43,293 50,410 -14.1

 New Orders.............................. 5,021 5,554 6,242 -9.6 -11.0 37.6 4,615 4,001 8,847 36,823 43,861 -16.0

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,404 3,448 3,316 -1.3 4.0 3.2 3,365 2,918 2,895 25,220 22,073 14.3

 New Orders.............................. 3,492 3,193 3,920 9.4 -18.5 -15.2 2,520 1,850 2,265 29,282 28,050 4.4

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 31,916 31,912 31,107 0.0 2.6 1.0 33,388 31,580 32,243 247,103 244,268 1.2

 New Orders.............................. 31,717 31,653 31,242 0.2 1.3 1.1 32,971 31,594 31,711 247,726 243,268 1.8

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 64,048 66,363 64,324 -3.5 3.2 3.4 61,651 59,337 60,389 494,634 492,903 0.4

 New Orders.............................. 67,129 65,656 65,768 2.2 -0.2 3.8 61,714 56,388 60,885 503,452 473,798 6.3

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 56,327 58,098 56,869 -3.0 2.2 3.8 54,032 51,972 54,071 435,884 441,829 -1.3

 New Orders.............................. 56,981 58,157 57,351 -2.0 1.4 3.6 53,276 51,645 55,253 438,035 424,344 3.2

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 53,955 55,245 53,903 -2.3 2.5 2.8 51,951 49,778 51,659 416,341 415,771 0.1

 New Orders......................... 54,560 54,987 54,728 -0.8 0.5 1.9 51,261 49,511 49,295 423,560 405,592 4.4

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,721 8,265 7,455 -6.6 10.9 0.2 7,619 7,365 6,318 58,750 51,074 15.0

 New Orders.............................. 10,148 7,499 8,417 35.3 -10.9 4.9 8,438 4,743 5,632 65,417 49,454 32.3

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Aug Jul Jun Jul - Jun - May - Aug Jul Aug 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Aug 2 Jul r Jun 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 489,144 485,859 487,360 0.7 -0.3 0.3 485,948 486,547 498,174 -2.5

 Total Inventories....................... 263,450 264,634 266,154 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 265,983 265,763 274,889 -3.2

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 241,221 239,345 239,851 0.8 -0.2 0.1 240,548 240,708 246,339 -2.4

 Total Inventories....................... 196,083 196,938 197,993 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 197,543 197,545 207,196 -4.7

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 335,693 335,064 336,071 0.2 -0.3 0.2 334,679 336,053 353,810 -5.4

 Total Inventories....................... 240,617 241,591 243,109 -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 242,550 242,490 253,325 -4.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 489,144 485,859 487,360 0.7 -0.3 0.3 485,948 486,547 498,174 -2.5

 Total Inventories....................... 206,421 207,477 209,126 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 208,444 208,283 217,170 -4.0

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,514 14,037 14,077 3.4 -0.3 0.8 14,640 14,294 16,164 -9.4

 Total Inventories....................... 17,858 17,981 18,222 -0.7 -1.3 -3.7 17,852 17,961 18,663 -4.3

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 35,939 35,938 36,117 0.0 -0.5 -0.8 36,457 36,742 39,486 -7.7

 Total Inventories....................... 31,079 31,121 31,479 -0.1 -1.1 -0.6 31,063 31,169 31,885 -2.6

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 41,423 41,384 41,433 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 41,321 41,318 45,944 -10.1

 Total Inventories....................... 41,590 41,908 42,032 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 41,681 41,692 43,694 -4.6

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 124,950 123,587 123,360 1.1 0.2 0.4 123,541 123,524 120,950 2.1

 Total Inventories....................... 47,346 47,505 47,791 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 48,582 48,097 54,223 -10.4

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,686 8,394 8,814 3.5 -4.8 3.1 8,826 8,254 6,623 33.3

 Total Inventories....................... 6,131 6,084 6,289 0.8 -3.3 2.4 6,513 6,120 6,788 -4.1 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 49,952 49,681 49,129 0.5 1.1 -0.6 48,904 49,844 47,847 2.2

 Total Inventories....................... 10,906 11,164 11,359 -2.3 -1.7 -2.3 11,127 11,351 15,118 -26.4

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,986 13,791 13,997 1.4 -1.5 0.7 14,091 13,915 14,193 -0.7

 Total Inventories....................... 12,350 12,394 12,526 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 12,295 12,401 13,140 -6.4

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 247,923 246,514 247,509 0.6 -0.4 0.5 245,400 245,839 251,835 -2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 67,367 67,696 68,161 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 68,440 68,218 67,693 1.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,003 12,068 11,914 -0.5 1.3 -0.1 11,837 12,092 12,275 -3.6

 Total Inventories....................... 20,355 20,270 20,378 0.4 -0.5 -0.9 20,576 20,600 20,653 -0.4 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 105,798 106,088 106,433 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 105,024 105,429 116,249 -9.7

 Total Inventories....................... 24,927 25,065 25,673 -0.6 -2.4 -2.6 25,216 25,048 26,305 -4.1

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 60,380 60,292 60,547 0.1 -0.4 1.0 60,026 60,871 56,981 5.3

 Total Inventories....................... 10,574 10,874 10,811 -2.8 0.6 3.1 11,006 11,009 10,056 9.4

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 10,409 10,608 10,867 -1.9 -2.4 1.3 10,498 10,915 9,602 9.3

 Total Inventories....................... 45,860 46,029 45,943 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 46,070 46,225 45,591 1.1

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 351,201 348,120 348,827 0.9 -0.2 0.4 347,529 347,466 345,496 0.6

 Total Inventories....................... 124,700 125,284 126,711 -0.5 -1.1 -0.5 126,543 125,640 134,688 -6.0

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 217,175 216,521 216,462 0.3 0.0 0.2 215,553 216,309 221,246 -2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 106,158 106,603 107,844 -0.4 -1.2 -1.1 107,560 106,847 116,599 -7.8

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 136,338 135,733 135,991 0.4 -0.2 0.6 135,490 136,180 134,763 0.5

 Total Inventories.................. 88,479 88,862 89,379 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 89,671 89,174 96,778 -7.3

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 134,026 131,599 132,365 1.8 -0.6 0.7 131,976 131,157 124,250 6.2

 Total Inventories....................... 18,542 18,681 18,867 -0.7 -1.0 3.3 18,983 18,793 18,089 4.9

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.