ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
WASHINGTON, DC 20230
—
US. Census Bureau For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 May 23, 2002
For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy CB-02-71
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-i(02)-4

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS! SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS.
April 2002

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS, excluding semiconductors, for manufactured durable goods in April increased $1.9 billion or 1.1 percent to $176.6
billion, the Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.2 percent March increase. Excluding
transportation, new orders increased 2.9 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2002 were 3.9 percent below the same period a year ago.

Machinery had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 4.0 percent to $22.7 billion, led by turbines and generators. Electrical equipment,
appliances, and components increased $0.7 billion or 7.6 percent to $10.0 billion. Primary metals increased $0.6 billion or 5.1 percent to
$11.6 billion. Transportation equipment decreased $1.5 billion or 2.6 percent to $54.8 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts decreased
22.3 percent to $5.8 billion.

© SHIPMENTS, excluding semiconductors, of durable goods in April increased $6.0 billion or 3.5 percent to $179.1 billion. This
followed a 0.5 percent March increase. Year to date, shipments for 2002 were 4.1 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $4.3 billion or 8.1 percent to $57.1 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts decreased 3.2
percent to $7.8 billion. Fabricated metal products increased $0.5 billion or 2.3 percent to $20.2 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS, excluding semiconductors, for durable goods in April decreased $2.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $522.5 billion.
This followed a 0.3 percent March increase.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $2.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $277.6 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts, down
twelve consecutive months, decreased $2.0 billion or 1.5 percent to $127.9 billion. Machinery, down four consecutive months, decreased
$0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $54.0 billion.

@ INVENTORIES, excluding semiconductors, for durable goods in April, down fifteen consecutive months, decreased $0.8 billion or
0.3 percent to $267.7 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent March decrease.

Machinery had the largest decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $47.3 billion, primarily due to metalworking machinery.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in April decreased $3.6 billion or 33.3 percent to $7.1 billion.
Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $7.1 billion. Unfilled orders increased slightly to $136.6 billion. Inventories increased
$0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $18.7 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in April increased $1.1 billion or 1.9 percent to $56.6 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $59.0 billion. Unfilled orders, down sixteen consecutive months, decreased $2.4
billion or 1.0 percent to $232.8 billion. Inventories, down fifteen consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $114.9
billion.

@ REVISED MARCH DATA Revised seasonally adjusted March figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $318.2 billion
(revised from $317.5 billion); new orders, $319.8 billion (revised from $318.5 billion); unfilled orders, $525.0 billion (revised from
$524.5 billion); and total inventories, $431.3 billion (revised from $431.5 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers” shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods

lata will hetmvihlichaet Maar 2


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS
(Millions of Dollars)

‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted "
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Apr Mar Feb Mar - Feb Jan Apr Mar Apr Apr
20027 2002" 2002 Apr? Mar" Feb 20027 2002" 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:*
Shipments.....-ceesee 179,133] 173,103] 172,327 +35 +05 -3.0] 176,840] 187,893} 172,881 423
New Orders... 176/593 174,672] 174,298 44a +0.2| +26) 173,003] 190,353] 169,704] +13
Excluding transportati
Shipments, 122,082] 120,317] 119,522 +15 +07] 2.2] 119,676] 129,603] 123,709 33
New Orders. 121,744] 118,333] 1171447 +29 +08 1] 119/766 126858] 119,775) +00
Excluding defense:*
SHIPMENES, ...----. eee cesses eee 170,725 164,827, 164,683 +3.6 +0.1 “2.9 168,956) 178,783) 166,701 +14
New Orders.. 168,432 162,829) 163,717 +3.4 -0.5 +0.1 165,705 | 175,486) 163,425, +14
Primary metals:
Shipments. 11,582 11,328] 10,865 42.2 +43) -4.4) 12,019] 11,845] 12,063 0.4
New Orders 11/601 11/039} 10,792 +51 +233) “24 14/974] 11/614] 11,697 +24
Fabricated metal product
Shipments........ . 20,240] 19,786] 19.672 +23 +06 2.8] 20,392] 20,349] 20,123 +13
New Order : 20,208. 19,944] 19,306] +13) +33 -15] 20,563] 20,736] 19,915 +33
Machinery:
Shipments. se seaceanenee 22,906 22,848) 23,508 +03 2.8) +0.3 (23,289 (25,316 24,735) 5.8
New Orders. 22,657 21,776) 22,098) +4.0) 1.5) 0.3) 23,224 23,828) 23,944) -3.0
Computgrs and electronic products:
‘Shipments.. 27,384 27,003) 26,766 +14 +0.9 2.8) (24,184 31,431 26,582 -9.0
New Order 271348] = 26.678] 26.553 +25 +05 -16} 241137) 30/820] 24/977 “3.4
Computers and related d products:
Shipments. . 7,778 7,586 7,866 +25 36 4.7 6,440 9,748 7,927 “18.8
New Orders... 7,465 71484 8,088 03 75 3.6 6,020 9,643 7/808 22.9
Communications equipment:
|hipments.. anes 5,880 5,682) 5,807 +35 -2.2) 0.7 5,135, 6,535 6,218) 74
New Orders 5,975 5,337) 5,996 +12.0) 11.0) +0.6 5,257 6,040 5,840) -10.0
Semiconductors:
Shipments. (NA) (NA) 5,844 (NA) (NA) 13.2) (NA) (NA) 7,176) INA}
New Order: (NA) (NA) 7,007 (NA) (NA) 5.7) (NA) (NA) 5,731 (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Shipments. 9,784 9,585 9,354 42.1 +25 2.9 9,538] 10,538] 10,641 “10.4
New Orders.. 10,003 9,300} 9,489 +76) -2.0) +48 9,746 9,940 10,146) “3.9
Transportation equipment
‘Shipments.. 57,051 52,786) 52,805) +81 0.0 -5.0) 57,164 58,290] 49,172 +16.3
New Order: 54,849 56,339) 56,851 -2.6 0.9) +113 53,237: 63,495 49,989) +65
Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipments........ oe 40,464 36,014 36,562) +124 1.5) 6.8) 41,837 39,292) 35,993) +16.2
New Orders........04 eee 40,538 36,206 36,662: +12.0) 1.2) 6.3) 41,798] 39,371 36,084) +16.8
Aircraft and parts:
Shipments. 10,989 11,189] 10,956) 18 424 44.3) 9,964 12,709) 8,793 +13.3
New Orders... 8.339 131252) 12/453) 37.1 +64) +603 6.124] 16,487 9/251 “33.8
Al other durable good:
‘Shipments... 30,186] 29,767) 29,357 +14] +1.4] 24 30,254] 30,124] 29.565 +23
New Orders. 927| 291596] 29.209 +14 +13 -24| 30,122] 29920 +37
! goods:*
shipments... 66,070] 66,039 65,468 0.0) +09 2.1 62,537 74,638) 65,845 5.0
New Order: m 63,725 66,205 66,040 3.7 +0.2 +114 58,521 75,631 62,767 6.8
Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments. wees 59,003 59,059 59,109 0.1 Bl 1.2 55,833] 66,948] 60,387 75
New Orders.. wes 56,610) 55,540) 57,329) +19 “31 +46) 52,500) 62,588 | 57,946 9.4
Defense capital goods:
Shipments... eee 7,067 6,980 6,359 +12 +98] 9.4] 6,704 7,690 5,458 +22.8
New Orders.. . . 7,115) 10,665 8,711 33.3 +22.4 +947 6,021 13,043 4,821 +24.9
(NA) Not Available * Revised
' Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and

are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample. E: 15 of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is,
nonsampling enor, which includes errors of coverage, respon Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.
Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1{00}
‘Manufacturers: Shipments, Inventaries, and Orders: 1992-2000.

‘ining, oil, and gas field machinery: industri
transmission equipment: pumps and
aircraft; railroad rolling stock

* Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to par
monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

* Due to the number of large ser
produce monthly estimates of semiconductor

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, ai

choosing not to

ticipate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently
ders, or inventor

raft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.


3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES

(Millions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly Percent Chan Monthly Percent
tem Change
Apr Mar Feb Mar - Feb - Jan - Apr Mar Apr Apr
2002? 2002‘ 2002 Apr? Mar ‘ Feb 2002 7 2002‘ 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:*
oral Unfilled Orders. 522,499] 525,039] 523,470 05 03 0.4} 529,670] 533,507] 570,858] -7.2
Total Inventories... 267.651| 268,403] 271,121 0:3 1.0 -0.7| 268,284] 260,216] 298,608} -10.2
Excluding t tation:*
xelntifled Orders. 244,920] 245,258] 247,242| 0.1 0.8 -0.8| 248,081] 247,961] 278,212] -10.8
Total Inventories... 196.211| 197,033] 198,048| “0.4 05 -0:8] 197/168] 195/960] 222/820] -11:5
Excluding defense:*
entitled Order 366,815] 369,108] 371,106 0.6 0.5] -0.3| 369,773} 373,024] 424,329|  -12.9
Total Inventorie 248,070] 246,021] 248/526] 0.4 “1.0 0.6] 245/822| 244/30] 276/440) -11:1
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders. 16,537| 16,518} 16,807 +01 1.7] -o.4| 17,164] 17,209] 19,426] -11.6
Total Inventorie: 18,664] 18,775] 19,086 0.6 17 “13| 18,628] 18,713) 21,792) -14.5
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Order 38,720 38,752] 38.594 0.4 +0.4 0.9} 39,092] 38,921] 42.687] -8.4
Total inventor 311846] 31,983 32/072 0.4 0:3 -0'8| 32,087} 32205] 35.425] “8.4
Machinery:
Uniilled Orders 53,988] 54,237] —§5,309 05 1.9 -2.5| 84,708) 54,773] 62,669} -12.7
Total Inventories. 47/288] 47,583| 47/851 0.8 05 05] 47/831} 47:708] 51.868] 8.2
Computers and electronic product
omputtinfiled Orders... os 109,554] 109,590] 109,915 0.9 0.3 0.2] 110,738] 110.785} 123,793] -10.5
Total Inventories... 40,584/ 40,650| 40,974 01 08 -1:7| 40,671] 39,223] 50/516] “19.5
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Order: 9.489] 9.799 9,901 -3.2| 1.0 +23) 9,248] 9,666] 10,131] -8.7
Total inventorie 7174] 7,286] 7/304 37 01 “18] 7/380] 6946] S630] -23.7
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders 40,383/ 40,288] 40,633) +0.2 0.8 +0.5| 41,019] 40,897} 48,823] -16.0
Total inventorie: 153] 8,121] 8,221 +05 12 “3:2; e017} 7.734) 11/512] “30.4
‘Semiconductgrs:®
om Unfilled Order (NA) (Nai] 16,291 (NA) (Na) +77 (NA) (wa)} 19,591] (NA)
Total Inventori (NA) (NA)} 7,234 (NA) (a) 18 (NA) (wa) 8.681] (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Order: 15,936] 18,717] 16,002 +14 1.8 +0.9] 16,085] 15,877] 18,541] -13.2
Total Inventories. 14,248] 14,294] 14,418! 0:3 0.8 -0.7| 14,554] 14/378] 16,295] -10.7
Transportation equipme:
Unfilled Order 277.573] 279,781) 276,228 os} +13 +1.5| 281,619] 285,546] 292,643] -3.8
Total Inventories. 4/440] “71,430] “73/073 0.0} “212 -0:2| “71/116] 70,286] 75.786] “8.2
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders.- 12,146] 12,072] 11,880) +06, +16] +08} 12,574] 12,613] 13,564] -7.3
Total Inventories. 20,007} 18,723] 19.525 ena +10 “0'9] 18/302] 18,500] 22118] -10.0
Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 188,439] 191,089| 189,026 1.4 +d +0.8| 190,451] 194,291] 198,709] -4.2
Total inventorie 39,479 "758| 41,422 0.7 “410 0:3] 39/293) 39,097] 41/221] -4.7
All other durable good
Unfilled Orders 10,185] 10,444] 10,615 2.5 “A 1.4] 10,264] 10,396] 11,096] -7.5
Total Inventori 43'571| 43,738] 43,63 0:4 +012 0:2] 43/636] 43,733} 46,924] -7'0
Capital goods:
intiled Order 369,481] 371,826] 371,660] 0.6 0.9) +0.2| 374,176] 378,192) 407.233] -8.1
Total Inventori 133,638| 134/560] 136.963 0.7 48 0.6] 134,065] 132,671] 150,648] -11.0
Nondefense capital goods
Unfilled Order 232,840| 235,233] 238,752 1.0 18 -0.7| 234,287] 237.620] 279,167] -16.1
Total inventories. 114/899] 115/877] 118,198 “08 "2:0 0:8] 118/308] 114/380] 131,636] -12\4
Defense capital goods
Unfilled Order 136,641] 136,593] 132,908 0.0 +28 +1.8] 139,889] 140,572| 128,066] +9.2
Total Inventories. 18,736] 18,683| 18,768 +03 015 $0.4] 18,753 18,291] 19,012) -1.3

See footnotes at end of Table 1