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Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 March 24, 1999

For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela €B99-57

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(99)-02

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 1999
(AI figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $10.1 billion or 5.0 percent to $191.8
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 3.3 percent January increase. The
February decrease is the first since October and the largest since the 6.5 percent decrease in December 1991. Excluding
transportation, new orders decreased 1.7 percent, the first decline since October. Year-to-date, new orders are 5.5 percent above
the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down for the first month since October, had the largest decrease, $7.5 billion or 14.3 percent to $44.9
billion; all component industries decreased, led by aircraft and parts. This follows a 13.5 percent January increase. Electronic and
other electrical equipment, down for the first month since November, decreased $3.0 billion or 8.5 percent to $32.0 billion. The
decrease was mostly due to electronic components. This follows a 3.4 percent January increase. Industrial machinery and
equipment, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $37.1 billion, following a 2.6 percent
January decrease. Fabricated metal products and instruments and related products also decreased. Primary metals, up for the first
month since November, increased $1.0 billion or 7.2 percent to $14.7 billion. This follows a 3.0 percent January decrease.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in February decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $194.0 billion, following a 0.6
percent January decrease. This is the second consecutive decrease following seven consecutive increases. Year-to-date, shipments
are 5.1 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the second consecutive month, had the largest decrease, $0.6 billion or 1.9
percent to $32.3 billion. This follows a 0.1 percent January decrease. Primary metals, down ten of the last twelve months,
decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $14.3 billion. This follows a 0.7 percent January increase. Transportation equipment,
down for the third consecutive month, decreased slightly to $47.2 billion, following a 1.4 percent January decrease. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up two of the last three months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $36.7 billion, following a 1.0
percent January decrease.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in February decreased $2.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $500.6 billion,
the first decrease since November. This follows a 1.5 percent January increase. Transportation equipment, down five of the last
six months, had the largest decrease, $2.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $246.0 billion. This follows a BP percent January increase.
Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since November, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $62.3
billion. This follows a 3.4 percent January increase. Instruments and related products also declined. Primary metals, up for the
first month since November, increased $0.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $29.3 billion. This follows a 2.2 percent January decrease.
Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $75.6 billion,
following a 1.0 percent January increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in February, down for the first month since November, decreased
$3.0 billion or 37.9 percent to $5.0 billion. This follows a 7.4 percent January increase and is the largest decrease since the 41.0
percent decrease in July 1996. Shipments, down three of the last four months, decreased 0.2 percent to $6.7 billion, following a
3.0 percent January increase. Unfilled orders, down for the first month since November, decreased $1.8 billion or 1.8 percent to
$95.4 billion, following a 1.3 percent January increase.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in February, down for the first month since October,
decreased $4.0 billion or 7.1 percent to $53.0 billion, following a 9.6 percent January increase. Shipments, down for the third
consecutive month, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $52.8 billion. This follows a 1.9 percent January decrease. Unfilled
orders, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $261.6 billion, following a 1.5 percent
January increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $45.1 billion, the second
consecutive monthly decline; shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $44.4 billion, the fourth decrease in the last five
months; and unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $108.5 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase.

@ REVISED JANUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted January figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$341.6 billion (revised from $341.5 billion); new orders, $349.5 billion (revised from $349.6 billion); unfilled orders, $526.9
billion (revised from $527.2 billion); and total inventories, $465.0 billion (revised from $465.6 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 31, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for April 28, 1999 at
8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Feb, Jan, Dec, | Jan; | Dec. | Nov.- Feb, Jan, Feb.
1999 1999 1998 | Feb? | Jan? | Dec. 1999 1999" 1998 | Feb.99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments . . 194,029 | 194,295 | 195,531 06] +04] 194.639 | 170,655 | 188,429 +33
New orders 191,833 | 201945 | 1957574 43.3] +34 | 192/527 | 188.235 | 188167 +23
Unfilled orders °° 500,624 | 502/820 | 495;172 415 0.0 | 505308 | 507,620 | 518,273 25
Excluding defense :
Shipments. . 187,302 | 187,555 | 188,989 -08| +06 | 187,905 | 165,161 | 181,817
New orders": 186,867 | 193/944 | 188125 $3.1] 42.5 | 1887132 | 179:704 | 182/509 31
Unfilled orders 405,177 | 405,612 | 399,225 416} 0.2 | 409/097 | 408/870 | 415,028
With unfilled orders :
Shipments ............. 159,619 160,119 161,454 -0.8 0.1 157,870 139,435 154,211 +24
New orders 2252222522221.) 157423 | 167,769 | 161497 39] +35] 155:758 | 157,015 | 153,949 +12
Primary metals :
Shipinents 14254 | 14318 | 14,222 - +0. 14,675 | 13,590 | 16,331 -10.1
New orders 147654 | 13670 | 14087 | +72 “3.0 16,009 | 13958 | 17,460 83
Unfilled orders 29;306 | 28/906 | 29,554 30,549 | 29,215 | 36,460 :
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments ......... Deets 16 | 36,526 | 36,880 “10 35,632 | 30,351 | 35,503
New orders ooo... sce] 37092 | 37248 | 38,246 “0.4 2.6] +75 | 36,286 | 31.918 | 36,109 +05
Unfilled orders 222225222! 75556 | 75:180 | 74458} +05] +10] +19] 76,662 | 76,008 | 74,878 +
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments. a 32,328 | 32,957 | __ 33,006 -l or! +14] 31,304] 27,907 | 30,112
New orders |? 32/040 53003 | 33,859 85] 434] 460] 301139 | 34831 | 29°795 +12
Unfilled orders 62:288 | 62576 | 60.530 035 | 43.4] +14] 63,565 | 64.730 | 57,826
Transportation equipment :
Shipments... . 47225 | 47,246 | 47,908 0.0 -14 -0 50,470 | 42,654 | 46,342 +8.
New orders 2222222220002 44; 52408 | 46,166 | -143 | +135] +25 75 50,040 | _44'939 45.9
Unfilled orders | 22222222! DiI] 246,031 | 248'367 | 243:205 09 | 421 ~ 247,073 | 249970 | 257,338 -
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 59,773 | 60,612 0.4 “14 36,720 | 48,567 | $4,917
New orders 221 65014 | 59.454] -109] +94 34971 | 56,643 | 54,362 +11
Unfilled orders | 358,568 | 353,329 04] +15 359122 | 360,871 | 369,019 7
Nondefense :
Shipments 53,033 | $4,070 -19] -02 | 49,986 | 43,073 | 48,305 +3.5
Ww orders 37/013 | 521005 +96] +26] 50576 | 481112 | _ 48/704 +38
Unfilled orders’: 261;360 | 257,382 +15 20:8 | 262,711 | 262:121 | 265,774 “12
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments ..... 44,428 | 44,487 | 45,380 20] +15 | 42,124] 35,965 | 41,193 423
New orders. 221. 45:13 | 45465 | 475132 -08 23.5] +77 | 43,188 | 38002 | 42,573 +14
Unfilled orders’ 22.22.22 108'538 | 107;853 | 106877] +06] +09) +17] 109{678 | 108,614 | 106,833 42:7
Defense :
Shipments . 6,727 6,740 6,542 02] +30]  -59 6,734 5,494 6,612 +18
New orders 2122220220! 4966 8001 7449 | 379] +74) 431.7 43395 81531 5,658 223
Unfilled orders 2 222222° 222] 9si4a7 | 97'208 | 95,947 “18 | 413] +10 | 96411 | 98,750 | 103,245 “66

(NA) Not available, * Revised.

" Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-momth variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are nox adjusted for trading-day or ealendar-momth variations

2 axed on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error i nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual
tenchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), "Manufacturers" Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, intemal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery. special industry
‘machinery, general industrial machinery. computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical ansmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
complete aierafl, missiles, and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

‘Defense capital goods inchde : ordnance, communication equipment, aitcraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Untilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1998-| Year ago Feb. ] Feb, 1998-| Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1998-

Feb. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Jan. 1999 | Feb. 1998] 1994-1998] Jan. 1999] Feb. 1998] 1994-1998] Jan. 1999

Durable goods ...... 2... 7 0.7 03 04 09 05 1s 0 02 03

Primary metals... : 0.1 01 06 07 10 16 04 05 03

Industrial machinery and equipment . . 0.0 0.6 08 On 0s 08 0.0 ol 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment ...... vee 04 0s 10 17 07 34 06 05 Lt

Transportation equipment |.) 212: 17 07 Is 18 15 38 Ol 03 04

Nondefense capital goods wees 04 06 09 18 10 24 04 02 03

Defense capital goods............ 0.5 0.5 il 16 74 10.7 0.1 0.5 0.6

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign,
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

215

205

195

215

New Orders
Portree ee ee ed Shipments |-] 205

185 185

175 175

165 i 1 1 1 L L 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 165

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1997 - Feb. 1999
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
69 59
New Orders

54 | Shipments | ----------------------------- ee 54
449
444

39 i i L L 1 it 1 1 i it L it 1 39

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1997- Feb. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.