UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE. | wit.

BUREAU OF THE
TMN EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Gloria Cable July 27, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2512 CB94-118
M3-1(94)-06

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
June 1994
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $2.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $151.0 billion, followin,
a 1.2 percent increase in May, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This is the fourth
consecutive monthly increase and the tenth in the last eleven months. Year to date, new orders are 13.3 percent above the
same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment increased $0.8 billion or 2.3 percent to $38.0 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts and
railroad equipment. This is the second consecutive monthly increase, following three decreases in a row. Industrial machinery
and equipment was up $0.6 billion or 2.2 percent to $28.6 billion, the fourth increase in the last five months. Electronic and
other electrical equipment increased $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $22.4 billion, the third increase in the last four months.
Instruments and related products also had a large increase. Primary metals had the largest decrease, down $0.4 billion or 3.1
percent to $12.9 billion, the second decrease in the last three months.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in June increased $1.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $150.0 billion, the fourth increase in the
last five months. All major groups except fabricated metal products, primary metals, and lumber and wood products increased.
Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $1.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $38.6 billion, primarily due to motor
vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased, $0.3 billion or 1.2 percent to
$22.6 billion, the eighth consecutive monthly increase. Instruments and related products also increased. Year to date, durable

goods shipments are 10.4 percent above the same period a year ago.
Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in June increased $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $425.4 billion, the third consecutive
monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the twelfth consecutive month, had the largest increase, up $1.5
billion or 2.6 percent to $60.2 billion, with increases in nearly all categories. Primary metals increased $0.3 billion or 1.2
percent to $25.3 billion, the seventh consecutive monthly increase. Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down

0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $208.7 billion, primarily due to shipbuilding and tanks. This is the twenty-fifth decrease in the
last twenty-six months. Stone, clay, and glass products and electronic and other electrical equipment also declined.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $0.2 billion or 2.9 percent to $6.9 billion, following increases of 13.7 percent in May
and 28.1 percent in April. Shipments increased 0.4 percent to $6.8 billion, following decreases of 2.0 percent in May and 2.6
percent in April. Unfilled orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $113.7 billion, the second consecutive increase.

Nondefense - New orders increased $2.2 billion or 6.2 percent to $37.6 billion, with increases in nearly all categories.
This is the first increase since January. Shipments increased $0.7 billion or 1.8 percent to $36.9 billion, the fourth increase
in the last five months. Unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $199.5 billion, the first increase in four months.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $2.0 billion or 6.4 percent, the first increase in three months; shipments
increased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent, the fourth increase in the last five months; and unfilled orders increased $1.9 billion or
2.3 percent, the thirteenth consecutive monthly increase.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 3, 1994. The advance report on durable goods for July is scheduled for August
24, 1994. ‘This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and
through the Census Bureau's online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog
Information Services. Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and ComnuServe (1800-242 R199). The CENDATA staff at the Rurean of the Censns (201-762-2074) can nrowide:


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
‘Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
June May Apr. | May; | Apr | Mar.- Jung May June
1994 1994 1984 | June ay’ | “Apr. 1994 1994" 1993 | June94/93
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments ........ 00.0.0... 149,986 | 148,342 | 146932] +11] +10] + 164,414 | 151,040 | 148,762 | +10.5
New orders - pesetiic2] 1sror3 | 14949 | 147345] 413 | 412] +03] 162%27 | 150/572 | 143sist | 413.8
Unfilled orders 425,415 | 424388 | 423681 | +02 | +02 1] 425852 | 427339 | 436,121 24
Excluding defense :
Shipments. . 141,532 | 139,980 +11 -0.2 | 157,063 | 144,464 | 140,603 | +11.6
New orders"? 141906 | 141,065 | +1'5 06 | 07 | 155646 | 1446s | 137,711] +130
Unfilled orders’ 310,827 | 310/453 40.1] +04 | 3125183 3.600 | 312/937 0.2
unfiled orders
Shipments 118,866 | 117,627 | 116404] +11] 9 +11 -0.2 | 130,699 | 117,091 | 119,458 494
New orders ” 119893 | 118334] 116817] +13] 413] +06] 1297212 | 116,623 | 113,847 | +13.5
Primary metals :
ipments 12,617 | 12,653 | 12,292 03 4] 13388] 12,989] 12,286 +9.0
New orders "| 12:90 13317 | 12°581 31] 459) -s1]° 13257] 13,478] 1517 | 415
Unfilled orders 257302 | 25:011 | 24347] +12 25,874 | 26.005 | 22952 | +12.7
Industrial machinery and equipment:
hipme: oe --} 27,008 | 26,932 | 26,396 +20] -04] 31,204} = 26,730 | 26,974 | 415.7
New orders. 28/555 | 27941 | 28012] +22 -03| +07] 32415 | 27747 | 26248 | 423.5
Unfilled orders 60,180 | $8633 | 57.624 | + 418] +29] 60,113 | 58902 | 50, 420.0
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 22,625 | 22348} 22,138] +12] +09 24361 | 21,862 | 20958 | +162
New orders” | |! 423. | 227171 | 23360} +1 SL} 487 | 232 21360 | 20514] +133
Unfilled orders 46977 | 47,179 | 47356 | -014 04] + 46528 | 47/649 | 42/452 4956
‘Transportation equipment : :
hip 38,618 | 37,645 | 37,867 | +26 06] 25 | 42,313 | 40,352 396
New orders | 37962 | 37,118 | 351933 | 423] +433] 09] 41701 | 38967 | | 38;284 489
Unfilled orders 2087658 | 209/314 | 209/841 03 03] 0.9 | 209;122 | 2097734 | 230,189
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments 43,709 | 43,019) 42,25 | +16] +05] 17] 30037] 41,658 | 46,837
New orders 44'520 | _42'522 | 47'095 | +47} 41.0] 4256 | 50301 | 40,095 | 447138
Unfilled order 313,199 | 312/388 | 312;885 | +03 02] 02 | 3137126 | 312,862 | 329/509
Nondefense :
Shipments. 36,872 6,209 | 35,873 | +1 -15 | 42,686 | 35,082 | 38,768 | +10.
New orders 37586 | 35379 | 35;815 | +62 12] 09 | 43,020 | 34,174 8,698 | +112
Unfilled orders’: 1997541 | 198827 | 199/657 | +0.4 z 0.0 | 199457 | 199123 | 206,325 33
Exgluding aircraft and parts:
32,136 | 31,867 | 31,288 +19 1 36,974 | 30,920 | 31,576} = +17.1
New orders, 347020 | 31/984 | 32936 | +6.4 29] 04] 38478] 30959] 31311 | +229
Unfilled orde 83;461 | 81/577 | 81,460 3] +01] 421] 83377] 81.873 | 71330] +169
Defense :
Shipments $937 6,810 6952 | +04 20] 26 7,351 6,576 8,069 89
New orders 7143 6280} 29] +137] 42811 7281 5921 5440 | $33.8
Unfiled orders’ sess | 136 | 11528 +01] +403] -06 | 113;669 | 113,739 | 123,184 “7

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

"Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manuf shipments and orders are subject to survey variability and evision. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling variability cannot be calculated,
Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitation are contained in our most recent anmial benchmark publication, Curren Industrial Reports: M3-I(92), “Manufactures' Shipmens, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992.
Te Capial Goods Indus ince Nonieese rane ard acess, steam engine an ines, neal combo egies, contin mining nd natal handing equipment, meabvrking machinery, seal insy
machinery, general industrial machinery, compulcr and office equipment, refrigeration, healing and sevice industry machinery,
compete Sera. mites and ace voile, ara msi, and space whe engines tnd far, sp and ak cmponen load equipment, ad seach and navigation. eqpmert
Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pur, ships, tanks and tank composes, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Tune | June 1993-] Year ago June | June 1993-] Year ago Tune [Tune 1993-

June 1993 | 1989-1993 | May 1994 | June 1993] 1989-1993} May 1994] June 1993] 1989-1993 | May 1994

Durable goods . 02 02 03 07 07 05 0.2 01 0.1

Primary metals . . 0.5 0.6 0.6 05 11 0.0 0.3 0.6

Industrial machinery and equipment’. 04 06 07 Ol 06 05 02 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment .. 03 04 0.6 73 19 3.1 08 0.6

Transportation equipment 13 04 05 08 10 Ol 02 O01

Nondefense capital goods 0.0 0.5 05 L7 08 02 02 0.1

Defense capital goods 0.8 0.4 0.9 3.6 6.4 0.2 0.1 0.3

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

165 165
New Orders
a Shipments |-] 155
145 145
135 135
125 125
115 L L i L L i L L L L L L L 115
Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
Jun. 1992 - Jun. 1994
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45

New Orders

40 - ~~ ~~ rr re ee ee eee eee ee eee Shipments |-{ 40

25; Mod n n n i L 1 L n n i i Ll 25

Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
Jun. 1992 - Jun. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.