UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | :stss..
NI EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 August 26, 1998

For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-155

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(98)-07

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
uly
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $4.4 billion or 2.4 percent to $187.5 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.2 percent June increase and is the third increase
in the last four months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.0 percent, the seventh increase in the last eight months.
Year-to-date, new orders are 4.5 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $3.6 billion or 12.0 percent to
$33.8 billion; an increase in electronic components more than offset a decline in communication equipment. This follows a 3.7
percent June increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.7 billion or 2.0
percent to $37.6 billion. This follows a 1.7 Percent june increase. Transportation equipment, up for the first month since April,
increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $39.5 billion; an increase in aircraft and parts more than offset decreases in shipbuilding
and tanks and motor vehicles and parts. is follows a 7.2 percent June decrease. Primary metals, down for the third consecutive
month, decreased 0.2 percent to $14.4 billion, following a 3.2 percent June decrease.

©@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in July decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $186.2 billion. This follows a 0.4
percent June increase and is the third decrease in the last four months. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.2 percent above the same
period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down for the fourth consecutive month, had the largest decrease, $1.0 billion or 2.4 percent to $39.9
billion, This follows a 6.2 percent June decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down two of the last three months,
decreased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $37.8 billion. This follows a 3.5 percent June increase. Electronic and other electrical
gquipment, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $31.3 billion, following a 4.0 percent
june increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in July increased $1.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $506.2 billion. This
follows a 0.7 percent June decrease and is the first increase since April. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $2.5
billion or 4.4 percent to $59.9 billion. This follows a 1.3 percent June decrease and is the first increase since April. Primary
metals decreased $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $32.4 billion. This follows a 1.8 percent June decrease and is the fifth consecutive
monthly decline. Transportation equipment, down five of the last six months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $250.9
billion. This follows a OG ercent June decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the fourth consecutive month,
decreased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $72.7 billion, following a 1.3 percent June decrease.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in July, down two of the last three months, decreased 0.1 percent
to $5.6 billion, following a 4.7 percent June increase. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 2.5 percent to $6.5 billion, following a
3.9 percent June decrease. Unfilled orders, down five of the last six months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $98.5 billion,
following a 0.7 percent June decrease.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in July, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.1
billion or 0.2 percent to $50.9 billion, following a 0.3 percent June increase. Shipments, down for the first month since April,
decreased $1.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $51.0 billion. This follows a 3.5 percent June increase. Unfilled orders, down for the
second consecutive month, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $262.8 billion, following a 0.5 percent June decrease.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.7 billion or 1.5 percent to $43.7 billion, the first decline since April;
shipments decreased $1.1 billion or 2.4 percent to $43.9 billion, the third decline in the last four months; and unfilled orders

decreased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $104.5 billion, the third decrease in four months.

®@ REVISED JUNE DATA Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $334.9
billion (revised from $334.6 billion); new orders, $331.1 billion (revised from $330.5 billion); unfilled orders, $529.6 billion
(revised from $529.3 billion); and total inventories, $466.7 billion (revised from $466.6 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www.m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published September 2, 1998 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled for September 24,
1998 at 10:00 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change ‘Monthly Percent
Juh J M J Mi Aj Juh J uly | ane
Ju ne [a june- - r- m june Ju
1998 1998 1998 | uly? | dune’ | ‘Ntay 199 1998" 199% | July9897
DURABLE GOODS
Total,
g6241 | tassel | 185789} 02 | 404 159,050 | 204,711 | 156,192
187310 182,777 | +24 | +02 163,619 | 196,096 | 155,332 +53
Unfilled orders Sbg34s | soag7e | 08438 | 703 0.7 506,517 | 501,948 | 492/960
Excluding defense :
Shipmen 179,778 | 180,257 | 179,231 03] +06] 05 357 | 197,830 | 130,639 +18
New o 181862 | 1777446 | 177380 | #25 00} 26] 159°715 | 190/507 | 151;536 454
Ualed orders’ 407,718 | 405,634 | 408445 | +0.5 07} 05 8.640 | 402,282 | 387/866 454
With unfilled orders
Shipments. . 156,071 | 155,686 | 153,590] +02] +14] -0.6 | 135,938 | 172,301 | 130,299 +43
New orders 157340 | 133224 | 150/378 | 434] 411] -38] 140/507 | 163,686 | 129/439 +86
Primary metals :
Shipments 15,026] 15,051 | 15,176] -0.2 04 13,630 | 15,842 | 14,462
14430 | 14455 | 143940 | -0.2 32 12853 | 14514 | 15/212
Datiled Srdeis! 222! : 32411 | 33/007 | 33,603 18 “1 321138 | 32/915 | 32700
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . “| 37,794 | 37,852 | 36,S61 02 3 -09| 32,079 | 44,804 | 29,766 +
‘New orders” | 37604 | 36,864 | 36244) 4201 +17] -17] 31956] 42939 | 30,238 +57
Unfilled orders’ 72672 | 723862 | 73850} 03 704 | 71828 | 71/951 | 73,100 :
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 31308 | 309584] 29,767 | +11 0} -10] 27,144 | 33,919 | 25,162 479
New orders | 33837 | 30,224 | 29144 | +120] 43.7 32/880 | 30/843 | 23208 | +411
Unfilled orders 59/898 | 57,369 8099 | +44 “13 61072 | 55,336 | $2205 | +170
‘Transportation equipment :
Shipments . . : 39,866 | 40,856 | 43,562 | 2.4 62) 07] 28527] 43,265 | 31,610 98
Rew orders 9476 | 391347 | 42422 | +03 72) 45] 27658 | ict 28/993 “4.6
Unfilled orders 250,936 | 251/326 | 252835 0.2 706 | -04 | 250,451 | 251;320 | 243,290 +29
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments . . 57,513 | 98,644] $7,144] -19 49,626 | 68,713. | __ 47,360 +
New orders 56/525 | 56640 | 56.231 702| +07 47,690 | _65/306 5. 45.6
Unfilled orders 361,340 | 362,328 | 364/332 | 03 ~ 360,024 | 361960 | 353,828
Nondefense :
Shipments... $1,050} 52,340] 50,586} 25] 43. 43,933 | 61,832 | 41,807
New orders‘ | || 301877 | 50,987 | 50,834 702 | +03] 08 | 43786 | _59'717 | _41;350 +59
Unfilled orders’ | | ! 262:813 | 262!986 | 264/339 | -0.1 0.5} +01 | 2621147 | 262/294 | 2487734 +54
Excluding aircraft and par
Shipments 43,860 | 44,950 | 42,980 +461] 01 | 37,459] 53,505 | 35,233, +63
New orders : 437666 | 44347 | 43/052 430 | +12] 37291 | 521140 | 36,656 +17
Unfilled orders”! }! | 104;530 | 104:724 | 105,327 -0.6 | 40:1 | 103/864 | 104,032 | 100,566 +33
Defense :
‘Shipments. . = 6.463 6,304 6558 | +25 « 5,693 6,881 5,353 425
New orders | ao 5,641 5,653 5307 | 01] +47 3/904 51589 37796 428
Unfilled orders’: 98527 | 99/342 | 99°993 08 + 97877 | 99,666 | 105,094 69

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

1 Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders areas ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or ealendar-month variations.
ce Bao anes sam Eximas of manuf pment, ven an des sl a and revision, One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
‘and nonveporting. Since the survey panel isnot a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in oor most recent annual
Ferchimark publication, Curren Industral Repos: M3-1(00), “Manufacturer” Shipments, Invemoris, and Orders 1987-156."
Te Capa Gods Inari ple Nodes; rane and acess, um egies a ubin, neal comuton engi, cnscion ming nd material hning pipet, mealwring mashing spi infty
yy, general , computer and office refrigeration, heating and service industry ny, electrical and dist
Complae sie, mises, and od sce a ies en apace enc cages tl pan ships wala compensa, aoa! equiped exch amd uvgaion equipment
fense capital goods include ordnance, communication equipment, aitcraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pans, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago Tuly | July 1997- | Year ago Tuly | July 1997-[~ Year ago Tuly | July 1997-
July 1997 | 1993-1997 | June 1998 | July 1997] 1993-1997] June 1998| July 1997] 1993-1997| June 1998
Durable goods . 01 02 03 07 05 o8 ol 01 o
Primary metals Ol 03 04 o4 05 03 04
Industrial machinery and equipment 05 09 07 on 08 06 o1 02

Blectronic and other

electrical equipment 06 06 08 13 15 20 03 04 05
Transportation equipment | 05 06 13 08 ui 16 02 Ol 02
Nondefense capital goods... 04 06 07 10 06 10 0.0 00 02
Defense capital 08 08 10 19 54 75 02 04 oa

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
205 205

New Orders
195 F- - ~~~ rt td Shipments || 195

185 185

175 175

165 165

155 L L L L L 1 L 1 1 L 1 L L 155
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May = Jul

Jul. 1996 - Jul. 1998

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
59 59

New Orders

54}-| Shipments | ---------------------------------- 454

39 bet n nl n n nl L n L n n n Lt 39

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul
Jul. 1996 - Jul. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.