U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Derrick Roy or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-02

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

March 24, 2004

CB-04-50

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

February 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in February increased $4.5 billion or 2.5 percent to $183.8 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.7 percent January decrease. Excluding

transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 8.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $4.9 billion or 9.9 percent to $54.4 billion. This was the largest percent

increase in transportation equipment since July 2002. Computers and electronic products, up nine of the last ten months,

increased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $31.6 billion, mostly due to communications equipment, which increased by $0.4 billion.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in February, up five of the last six months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.8 percent

to $187.6 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent January decrease. Year-to-date, shipments for 2004 were 7.2 percent above the

same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.3 billion or 6.4 percent to $54.9 billion, led by motor vehicles and parts,

which increased by $1.5 billion. Machinery, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.7 billion or 3.1 percent to $21.9

billion. This was the largest percent decline in machinery since June 2002.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in February, up six of the last seven months, increased $2.8 billion or

0.6 percent to $508.8 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent January decrease.

Machinery, up seven consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 2.9 percent to $45.4 billion. Fabricated metal

products, up seven consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $40.8 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in February, up four of the last five months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.4

percent to $264.3 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent January increase.

Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $68.2 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in February increased $1.0 billion or 11.6 percent to $9.8

billion. Shipments increased $1.2 billion or 14.4 percent to $9.2 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to

$139.6 billion. Inventories increased $0.5 billion or 2.4 percent to $19.9 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in February increased $1.7 billion or 2.9 percent to $60.3

billion. Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $59.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to

$219.9 billion. Inventories increased slightly to $105.0 billion.

! REVISED January DATA Revised seasonally adjusted January figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders,

$342.0 billion (revised from $343.2 billion); shipments, $348.9 billion (revised from $350.1 billion); unfilled orders, $505.9

billion (revised from $505.8 billion); and total inventories, $439.4 billion (unrevised).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published March 31, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for March

is scheduled for April 23 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Feb Jan Dec Jan - Dec- Nov - Feb Jan Feb Change

2004 2 2004 r 2003 Feb 2 Jan r Dec 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 187,591 186,176 187,978 0.8 -1.0 2.1 184,146 166,232 167,845 350,378 326,894 7.2

 New Orders 4

.............................. 183,820 179,337 184,361 2.5 -2.7 1.7 183,349 167,523 165,222 350,872 325,008 8.0

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 132,737 134,621 134,935 -1.4 -0.2 3.1 127,901 119,672 116,535 247,573 228,211 8.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 129,462 129,867 129,104 -0.3 0.6 1.8 127,792 119,504 113,720 247,296 224,421 10.2

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 176,883 176,783 178,658 0.1 -1.0 1.9 173,735 158,469 159,732 332,204 311,736 6.6

 New Orders 4.............................. 173,104 169,751 173,608 2.0 -2.2 1.9 172,837 157,113 154,891 329,950 306,612 7.6

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 127,115 127,120 126,597 0.0 0.4 1.9 124,446 113,075 114,331 237,521 221,565 7.2

 New Orders 4.............................. 129,933 126,756 129,026 2.5 -1.8 1.0 130,424 120,324 117,347 250,748 230,454 8.8

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 11,915 11,807 11,564 0.9 2.1 4.5 12,242 11,547 10,829 23,789 22,060 7.8

 New Orders.............................. 12,303 12,148 11,655 1.3 4.2 -1.3 13,343 12,475 11,179 25,818 22,844 13.0

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,599 20,927 21,049 -1.6 -0.6 3.1 20,355 19,208 19,871 39,563 39,070 1.3

 New Orders.............................. 21,295 22,049 21,864 -3.4 0.8 3.7 21,511 21,075 19,838 42,586 39,120 8.9

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 21,947 22,652 22,776 -3.1 -0.5 7.1 21,070 19,871 19,773 40,941 38,003 7.7

 New Orders.............................. 23,208 22,912 24,020 1.3 -4.6 7.9 22,961 21,382 20,016 44,343 39,110 13.4

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 37,543 37,950 37,463 -1.1 1.3 3.1 35,332 32,447 29,846 67,779 57,656 17.6

 New Orders 4.............................. 31,580 31,198 29,948 1.2 4.2 1.6 30,468 27,388 25,634 57,856 50,868 13.7

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,178 8,442 8,482 -3.1 -0.5 3.8 6,845 7,344 5,606 14,189 11,868 19.6

 New Orders.............................. 8,140 7,973 8,683 2.1 -8.2 6.7 6,998 6,668 5,625 13,666 11,601 17.8 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,941 7,095 6,757 -2.2 5.0 1.3 6,433 5,736 5,323 12,169 10,067 20.9

 New Orders.............................. 7,241 6,866 4,159 5.5 65.1 -18.8 7,466 5,962 6,514 13,428 13,156 2.1

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 6,589 6,475 6,046 1.8 7.1 -3.9 6,775 5,958 5,639 12,733 10,775 18.2

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,431 8,547 8,627 -1.4 -0.9 0.0 8,040 7,354 7,835 15,394 15,273 0.8

 New Orders.............................. 8,508 8,545 8,251 -0.4 3.6 -2.5 8,411 7,520 8,067 15,931 15,514 2.7

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 54,854 51,555 53,043 6.4 -2.8 -0.4 56,245 46,560 51,310 102,805 98,683 4.2

 New Orders.............................. 54,358 49,470 55,257 9.9 -10.5 1.4 55,557 48,019 51,502 103,576 100,587 3.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 38,477 36,985 38,433 4.0 -3.8 2.2 40,273 35,024 37,150 75,297 73,926 1.9

 New Orders.............................. 38,740 36,898 38,615 5.0 -4.4 2.0 40,769 35,335 37,474 76,104 74,667 1.9 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,584 5,200 5,322 7.4 -2.3 -9.2 5,609 3,921 5,909 9,530 9,465 0.7

 New Orders.............................. 5,504 4,114 6,097 33.8 -32.5 23.7 5,124 3,770 3,771 8,894 8,475 4.9

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 4,791 3,527 3,486 35.8 1.2 15.6 4,412 2,910 2,801 7,322 5,367 36.4

 New Orders.............................. 3,819 2,370 3,778 61.1 -37.3 1.2 3,325 2,943 2,833 6,268 5,732 9.4

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 32,302 32,738 33,456 -1.3 -2.1 1.1 30,862 29,245 28,381 60,107 56,149 7.0

 New Orders.............................. 32,568 33,015 33,366 -1.4 -1.1 -1.1 31,098 29,664 28,986 60,762 56,965 6.7

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 69,097 68,313 68,334 1.1 0.0 3.3 65,522 58,489 57,810 124,011 110,442 12.3

 New Orders.............................. 70,113 67,366 69,845 4.1 -3.5 4.1 67,986 62,057 59,954 130,043 116,658 11.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 59,877 60,251 60,421 -0.6 -0.3 3.0 56,482 51,714 50,911 108,196 97,434 11.0

 New Orders.............................. 60,343 58,615 60,219 2.9 -2.7 4.1 58,525 52,772 50,991 111,297 100,782 10.4

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 57,201 58,332 57,952 -1.9 0.7 3.8 53,985 50,436 48,214 104,421 93,512 11.7

 New Orders......................... 58,132 57,492 57,673 1.1 -0.3 3.8 56,898 51,355 50,042 108,253 97,763 10.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 9,220 8,062 7,913 14.4 1.9 5.5 9,040 6,775 6,899 15,815 13,008 21.6

 New Orders.............................. 9,770 8,751 9,626 11.6 -9.1 4.4 9,461 9,285 8,963 18,746 15,876 18.1

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Feb Jan Dec Jan - Dec - Nov - Feb Jan Feb 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2003 Feb 2 Jan r Dec 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 508,752 505,934 506,298 0.6 -0.1 0.5 515,643 509,665 489,568 5.3

 Total Inventories....................... 264,337 263,161 262,947 0.4 0.1 0.6 267,319 262,255 273,111 -2.1

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 259,433 256,119 254,398 1.3 0.7 0.1 263,591 256,925 243,248 8.4

 Total Inventories....................... 196,106 195,279 195,489 0.4 -0.1 0.6 198,760 194,913 204,611 -2.9

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 349,781 346,971 347,528 0.8 -0.2 0.3 354,938 349,061 341,785 3.8

 Total Inventories....................... 239,887 239,101 238,671 0.3 0.2 0.4 242,713 238,478 250,967 -3.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 508,752 505,934 506,298 0.6 -0.1 0.5 515,643 509,665 489,568 5.3

 Total Inventories....................... 206,132 205,360 205,645 0.4 -0.1 0.4 207,952 204,504 214,834 -3.2

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 17,204 16,816 16,475 2.3 2.1 0.6 18,031 16,930 15,243 18.3

 Total Inventories....................... 17,739 17,501 17,301 1.4 1.2 0.1 17,809 17,627 19,244 -7.5

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 40,772 40,076 38,954 1.7 2.9 2.1 41,044 39,888 36,950 11.1

 Total Inventories....................... 31,168 30,914 31,021 0.8 -0.3 0.1 31,573 30,897 32,079 -1.6

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 45,428 44,167 43,907 2.9 0.6 2.9 46,284 44,393 43,527 6.3

 Total Inventories....................... 42,043 41,846 41,583 0.5 0.6 0.9 42,907 41,864 43,603 -1.6

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 129,882 129,256 129,533 0.5 -0.2 -1.1 131,966 130,055 122,804 7.5

 Total Inventories....................... 47,170 46,974 47,777 0.4 -1.7 1.4 47,645 46,616 50,532 -5.7

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,345 8,383 8,852 -0.5 -5.3 2.3 8,282 8,129 7,857 5.4

 Total Inventories....................... 5,981 6,030 6,145 -0.8 -1.9 2.1 6,042 5,819 6,412 -5.8 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 50,333 50,033 50,262 0.6 -0.5 -4.9 51,028 49,995 47,836 6.7

 Total Inventories....................... 10,611 10,553 11,056 0.5 -4.5 -0.3 10,709 10,487 12,410 -13.7

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,696 13,619 13,621 0.6 0.0 -2.7 13,952 13,581 14,033 -0.6

 Total Inventories....................... 12,193 12,476 12,383 -2.3 0.8 0.1 12,546 12,459 12,987 -3.4

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 249,319 249,815 251,900 -0.2 -0.8 0.9 252,052 252,740 246,320 2.3

 Total Inventories....................... 68,231 67,882 67,458 0.5 0.6 0.7 68,559 67,342 68,500 0.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,662 13,399 13,486 2.0 -0.6 1.4 14,427 13,931 12,874 12.1

 Total Inventories....................... 20,899 20,808 20,230 0.4 2.9 0.9 21,068 20,820 21,018 0.2 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 103,509 103,589 104,675 -0.1 -1.0 0.7 104,435 104,920 110,504 -5.5

 Total Inventories....................... 23,973 23,965 24,013 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 23,940 23,666 26,035 -8.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 60,003 60,975 62,132 -1.6 -1.9 0.5 59,716 60,803 56,329 6.0

 Total Inventories....................... 11,567 11,516 11,639 0.4 -1.1 4.2 11,800 11,362 10,341 14.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,451 12,185 11,908 2.2 2.3 -0.8 12,314 12,078 10,691 15.2

 Total Inventories....................... 45,793 45,568 45,424 0.5 0.3 0.0 46,280 45,450 46,166 0.2

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 359,559 358,543 359,490 0.3 -0.3 0.4 363,829 361,365 344,927 5.5

 Total Inventories....................... 124,919 124,447 125,112 0.4 -0.5 0.5 125,999 123,584 130,003 -3.1

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 219,917 219,451 221,087 0.2 -0.7 -0.1 222,648 220,605 216,750 2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 105,015 105,002 105,554 0.0 -0.5 0.3 106,116 104,305 112,021 -5.3

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 141,311 140,380 141,220 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 143,116 140,203 132,522 8.0

 Total Inventories.................. 87,832 87,898 88,558 -0.1 -0.7 0.4 88,881 87,355 92,907 -4.3

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 139,642 139,092 138,403 0.4 0.5 1.3 141,181 140,760 128,177 10.1

 Total Inventories....................... 19,904 19,445 19,558 2.4 -0.6 1.8 19,883 19,279 17,982 10.6

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.