U.S. Department of Commerce

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS FIRST-CLASS MAIL

Washington, D.C. 20233 POSTAGE & FEES PAID
CENSUS

Official Business PERMIT No. G—58

Penalty for Private Use, $300

NOTICE

Revised historical data for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and
Orders will be issued in mid-July. The revisions to the historical
data are the result of:

e benchmarking the shipments and inventory data to the revised
1988-1991 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM); 1992 Census of
Manufactures; and 1993-1994 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM).

e benchmarking the defense shipments series to the 1992 MC9675
"Shipments to Federal Government Agencies."

e adjusting new and unfilled orders to be consistent with the
benchmarked shipments and inventory data.

e correcting monthly data for late receipts, reclassification of
reported data, and revisions to previously reported data.

e updating the trading day adjustment factors for the shipments
series.

e updating the seasonal adjustment factors for all series,

including re-evaluating options used.

The publication will include data from 1982-December 1995. Please
call Kathy Menth on (301) 457-4832 with questions.



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | ts.

2 =
= BUREAU OF THE
z= =—=WSs WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 June 26, 1996
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB96-104
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(96)-5

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
May 1996
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

®@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $5.5 billion or 3.3 percent to $171.8 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.8 percent April decrease and is the largest increase since
the 5.1 percent August 1995 increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $129.0 billion, the
fifth increase in the last six months. Year-to-date new orders are 4.4 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $4.7 billion or 12.2 percent to $42.9 billion; led by
aircraft and parts, all component categories increased. This follows a 12.1 percent April decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment,
up four of the last five months, increased $0.8 billion or 2.5 percent to $33.5 billion. This follows a 0.1 percent April increase. Primary
metals, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $15.1 billion, following a 7.6 percent April increase.
Electronic and other electrical equipment, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.8 billion or 3.0 percent to $26.6 Billion, following
a 2.5 percent April decrease.

©@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in May increased $3.2 billion or 1.9 percent to $170.5 billion, following a 2.1 percent April
increase. This is the third increase in the last four months. Year-to-date shipments are 3.3 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, up thres of the last four months, had the largest increase, $1.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $40.7 billion, mostly
due to aircraft and parts. is follows a 7.3 percent April increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month since
February, increased $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $33.3 billion, following a 1.6 percent April decrease. Electronic and other electrical
equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $27.9 billion, following a 0.9 percent April decrease.
Primary metals, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $14.7 billion, following a 2.8 percent April
increase.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in May increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $457.6 billion. This follows
a 0.2 percent April decrease and is the eighth increase in the last nine months.

Transportation oquipment, up six of the last seven months, increased $2.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $219.5 billion, due to aircraft and parts.
This follows a 0.5 percent April decrease. Primary metals increased $0.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $28.9 billion. This follows a 1.0 percent
April increase and is the third increase in the last four months. Industrial machinery and equipment, up four of the last five months,
increased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $74.0 billion. This follows a slight Apri rease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down
three of the last four months, decreased $1.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $52.3 billion, following a 0.8 percent April decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in May, up two of the last three months, increased 0.4 percent to $6.2
billion. This follows a 34.3 percent April decrease. Shipments, up two of the last three months, increased $0.1 billion or 1.4 percent to
$6.3 billion, following a 3.8 percent April decrease. Unfilled orders, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1
percent to $111.5 billion, following a slight April decline.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in May increased $4.1 billion or 9.6 percent to $46.7 billion. This
follows a 12.6 percent April decrease and is the second increase in the last three months. Shipments, up three of the last four months,
increased $1.5 Fillion or 3.4 percent to $45.2 billion. This follows a 2.1 percent April decrease. Unfilled orders increased $1.5 billion
or 0.7 percent to $225.9 billion, the eighth increase in the last nine months. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased slightly
to $38.5 billion, the first increase since February; shipments, up three of the last four months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $39.6
billion, following a 2.2 percent April decrease; and unfilled orders decreased $0.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $100.3 billion, the second
consecutive monthly decline.

© REVISED APRIL DATA Revised seasonally adjusted April figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $310.6 billion
(revised from $309.9 billion); new orders, $309.7 billion (revised from $309.1 billion); unfilled orders, $478.9 billion (revised from $479.0
billion); and total inventories, $422.1 billion (revised from $421.7 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published July 3, 1996. The advance report on durable goods for June is scheduled for July 25, 1996. This report is avaitable
on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online information
service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe

(1 SAD BAR.2100) Tha CENTVATA ctaff at the Biirno af the Canene (201-487-1914) ran nravide rantent infarmatinn and general anidance


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
May Apr, Mar | Apr: | Mar; | Reb. Mai ARE May
199 1996" 1996 | May? | Apr.’ | Mar. 199 1996" 1995 | May96/95
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments sees 170,477 | 167,325 | 163,867 | +19] 42.1 -0.2 | 172,598 | 165,479 | 161,166 +71
New orders) 200000022. .2 1 171;833 | 166.292 | 169,278 | +33 -18| +26 | 172°005 | 165:801 | 159/850 +76
Unfilled orders 22022220222 457,649 | 456293 | 457326 | +03 02] +12 | 4617634 | 462/227 | 439/928 +49
Exgluding defense
Shipments vevceeessee | 164179] Lontia | 1s74ta | 41 +24] -04 | 166,482 | 159,747 | 154,806 7.
New orders 222202220) 165.604 | 160,086 | 159827 | +34] +02] +04] 167327] 160,495 | 155,491 +76
Unfilled orders’ | nl 346,181 | 344.756 | 345.784 | +0. 03 3497144 | 348,299 | 329:141 1
With unfilled orders :
Shipments ...............] 136,835 | 134,030 | 132.946] +2. +08] +02 | 135,858 | 129,829 | 127,502 +6.6
New orders Lf 138:191 | 132:997 | 138357 | +3.9 “39 | 43.7 | 135/265 | 130,151 | 126,186 $7.2
Primary metals:
Shipments 14,721 14.643 | 14,245 +28 15,161 14,956 | 15,519 23
New orders: a ‘| 18129 | 14916 | 137859 +76 15112 | 14922 | 14356 +53
Unfilled orders 2252202200000: 28/904 496 | 28/223 +10 29961 | 30,010 | -29/514 +15
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments... 000... 0. e ee 33,253 | 32,661 | 33,184] +18 -16] -1.0 | 32,610 | 31,156 | 30,237
New orders’ < - : 33,305 | 32681 | 32.664 | 42:5] +01 47 | 32872 | 31272 | 30,7 471
Unfilled ordets : : ! veces | 731975 | 73-723 | 73,703 | +03 oo} 0.7} 74157 | 73;895 | 72:387,
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 27,920 | 27,826 | 28,088 09{ +151 27,056 | 26212 | 24,951 +
New 26592 | 27409 | 28,108 25| +49] 25387 | 27/481 | — 25'901 -2.0
Untied ordess 521267 | 53/505 | 54012 -08 00 | 53117] 54,786 | 53,625 “0.
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 40,686 | 39,334] 36649] 434] 473] 3. 43,380 | 41,052 | 39,559 +9.7
New orders SELLS} 42iges | 387195 | 43,437 | +122 | -121 | +146 | 44321 | 390741 | 37'905 | +169
Unfilled orders *:< !° : | 219'539 | 2173357 | 218496 | +10 05 | 43.2 | 2207723 | 219:782 | 200014 | +104
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments . 51,484 | 49,911 | 51,086 23| +09] 49475 | 46395] 46,621
New orders’ < - | ° 52'949 | 48/848 | 58,233 | +84] 16.1 | +112 | _49'556 | 45,121 | 45,833, 48.1
Unfilled orders : 337,322 | 335.857 | 336,920 03] +22 | 338,643 | 338/562 | 315.479
Nondefense :
Shipments 45,186 | 43,700 | 44,633 2.1 43.359 | 40.663 | 40.261 17
New orders "| 46.720 | 42642 | 48,782 | +96. | -12.6 44378 | 39.815 | 41/474 48.2
Untitled orders’ | 225,854 | 224/320 | 225/378 “05 226,153 | 224634 | 204,692 | +10.
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments ............-] 39,596 | 39,105 | 39.972 | +13 22] +02] 37,960] 36,168] 35,725 +63
New orders : 38/939 | 38/925 | 40,246 00 33 -20 | 37,288 | 36,198 | 36.441 423
Unfilled orders 22. : | : | 100;340 | 100,997 | 101,177 07 02] +03 | 100%639 | 101311 | 97,872 +28
Defense :
Shipments. . 6.298 6.211 6453 | +14 38| +28 6,116 3,732 6,360 3.8
New orders 6.229 6:206 9451 | +04] 343] +634 4.678 33306 4359 473
Unfilled orders’ ! urges | 110537 | 111,542 “0.1 00 | 42:8 | 112490 | 113,928 | 110,787 13

(NA) Not available," Revised.

"Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
response and nonreporing. » Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992."

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
‘machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparamus, communication equipment,
‘complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, ‘communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago May | May 1995-|~ Year ago May | May 1995-[~ Year ago May | May 1995-

May 1995 | 1991-1995 | Apr. 1996 | May 1995 1991-1995 | Apr. 1996] May 1995] 1991-1995] Apr. 1996

Durable goods... 0.0.0... cee o1 1 03 0.1 06 08 0.0 02 Ol

Primary metals . : 00 03 04 13 12 08 06 05 04

Industrial machinery’ and equipment 04 03 06 03 03 10 0. ol 04
Blectronic and other

electrical equipment 07 03 0s 07 06 07 0.0 02 02

Transportation equipment 0.1 02 06 ol 20 15 0.0 02 03

Nondefense capital goods os 02 0.6 08 19 13 0.0 02 02

Defense capital goods . 07 06 10 21 26 60 0.1 o1 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
185 185
New Orders
175 |- Shipments | 175
165 165
185 185
145 4 145
135 1 1 i 1 i i 1 1 1 1 1 L 1 135
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
May. 1904 -May. 1996
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

53 “ New Orders | 53

48

43

33 UL 1 L 1 L 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 L
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

May. 1994-May. 1996

Note: All Charts basedon seasonally
adusted current dollars,