ECONOMICS
ES DEPARTMENT OF AND

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ADMINISTRATION

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el BUREAU OF THE
== WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 August 25, 1999
For Questions - Frances Porter or Lee Wentela €B99-161
B01) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4832
M3-1(99)-07

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
July 1999
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $6.5 billion or 3.3 percent to $204.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.5 percent June increase and is the eleventh
increase in the last fourteen months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.7 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 6.7
percent above the same period a year ago.

Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase, $3.0 billion or 8.4 percent to $39.3 billion. This follows a 3.9
percent June decrease and is the largest increase since January 1995. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $2.1
billion or 5.9 percent to $37.3 billion, following a 3.5 percent June increase. This is the fourth increase in the last five months and
is mostly due to electronic components. Transportation equipment increased $0.9 billion or 2.0 percent to $47.2 billion, following
a 1.1 percent June increase. Primary metals, up four consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 2.4 percent to $15.6 billion,
following a 2.7 percent June increase.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in July increased $1.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $202.3 billion, following a 0.7
percent June increase. This is the twelfth increase in the last fourteen months. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.2 percent above the

same period a year ago.

Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 3.6 percent to $38.5 billion. This follows a 0.9
percent June decrease and is the fifth increase in the last six months. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up eleven of the
last fourteen months, increased $1.2 billion or 3.5 percent to $35.5 billion. This follows a 1.3 percent June increase. Primary
metals, up three consecutive months, increased $0.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $14.9 billion, following a 1.1 percent June increase.
Transportation equipment decreased $1.4 billion or 2.7 percent to $48.4 billion, following a 1.8 percent June increase; led by motor
vehicles and parts, all components decreased except shipbuilding and tanks.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in July increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $496.2 billion,
following a 0.7 percent June decrease. This is the first increase since March. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up eight
consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.9 billion or 2.8 percent to $68.0 billion. This follows a 1.5 percent June increase.
Industrial machinery and equipment, up seven of the last eight months, increased $0.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $79.0 billion. This
follows a 1.1 percent June decrease. Primary metals, up six consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 2.4 percent to $31.4
billion. This follows a 1.8 percent June increase. Notwithstanding these increases, transportation equipment, down thirteen of the
last fifteen months, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $230.5 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in July increased $1.4 billion or 27.8 percent to $6.7 billion,
following a 13.5 percent June decrease. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 6.0 percent to $6.7 billion, following a 5.9 percent
June decrease. Unfilled orders increased slightly to $93.9 billion, following a 1.1 percent June decrease. This is the first increase
since March.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in July increased $3.7 billion or 7.3 percent to $54.5 billion,
following a 4.2 percent June decrease. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $0.9 billion or 1.7 percent to $55.3
billion. This follows a 2.1 percent June decrease. Unfilled orders, down for the fifth consecutive month, decreased $0.8 billion or
0.3 percent to $251.7 billion. This follows a 1.4 percent June decrease. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $3.7
billion or 8.4 percent to $48.1 billion; shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $1.6 billion or 3.5 percent to $48.0
billion; and unfilled orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $110.0 billion.

© REVISED JUNE DATA Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $354.1

billion (revised from $354.3 billion); new orders, $351.1 billion (revised from $350.7 billion); unfilled orders, $518.6 billion
(revised from $518.1 billion); and total inventories, $463.1 billion (revised from $463.3 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published September 2, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled for September 29,
1999 at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jul June May | June; | May. | Apr- Jul June Jul
199% 1999" 199 July? | June" lay 199 1999" 1998 | July99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments 202,304 | 200,872 | 199,425 | +0.7 +07] +11] 171,008 | 219,256 | 158,992 +76
New orders 204;037 | 197'503 | 196,609 | +33 +05] +10} 178960 | 209{876 | 162,637 +100
Untitied orders 496,158 | 494425 | 497,794 | +04 -07 -0.6 | 498,696 | 490,744 | 505,568 “14
Excluding defense :
Shipments . eee - | 195,652 194,594 192,756 +0.5 +1.0 165,191 212,523 153,301 +78
New orders 197,383 | 192298 | 190/500 | +26 +09 173;817 | 204966 | 158;718 495
Unfilled orders 402/254 | 400,523 | 402819 | +0.4 0.6 404'984 | 396,358 | 407,674 -07
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 165,673 | 163,714 | 164,045 | +12 02] +10] 144,107 | 180,279 | 135,900 +6.0
New orders : 167,406 | 160,345 | 161,229 | +44 05 | +09 | 152;059 | 170,899 | 139,545, +9.0
Primary metals :
Shipments = : 14,851 14,685, 14,526 | + 15,501 13,580 0
New orders“... 2: Lt 15,582 15,215 14811 424 15,295 12,753 +127
Unfilled orders coon 31,401 30,670 40] 424 30/683 | 32,088 “19
Industrial machinery and equipmen
Shipments 38,520 | 37,193 | 37,519 | +36 44,080 | 32,255 +
ew orders : 397330 | 36,288 | 37,780 | +84 42225 | 32179 +69
Unfilled orders 79014 | 78,204 | 791109 | +10 17367 | 71/891 92

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :

Shipments 35,476 | 34,267 | 33,836 | +35 +13] +05] 31,024] 37,359] 27,019 | +148
New orders". ot : 37339 | 35,261 34,067 +59 435 -09 | 38.210 | 35/520 | 321182 | +187
Unfilled orders’: : ft 68040 | 66,177 | 65,183 | +28 15] +04} 70313 | 63,127 | 60454} +103
‘Transportation eq
Shipments feces 48,429 | 49,780 | 48,891 27 +18] +24] 32,732 | 52,31 28,518 | +148
New orders”. | | | 47.187 | 46,241 45,728 | +2.0 +r1] 499] 31374 | 471837 | 271428 | +144
Unfilled orders: °° :} 230;492 | 231.734 | 233;273 -05 “15 -13.| 230/404 | 231/762 | 250,230 19
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
ipments ....... 61,981 60,667 | 62,212 | +22 25] +16] 53,776 | 70,293 | 49,996 476
New orders 21220200220 61,160 | 56.018 | 39060 | +92 52] 426 | 52/563 | 63,967 | 47,751 +10.1
Unfilled orders ft i: ] 345%629 | 346.450 | 351,099 02 13 -09 | 345/074 | 346,287 | 359,731 41
Nondefense :
Shipments . -] $5,329} $4389 | 95,543 +17 21 +15] 47,959 | 63,560 | 44,305 +82
New orders - 547506 | 50813 | 53,041 +73 42] +10] 47420 | 591057 | 437832 +82
Unfilled orders. : fill} 251725 | 252/548 | 256124 03 4 -L0 | 251/362 | 251/901 | 261,837 -40
Excluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments -| 47,987 | 46375 | 46,376 00} +08} 41,685 54,987 | 37,828 +102
New orders. °°! : 48,120 | 44404 | 46.057 | +8.4 3.6 29] 421102 | 52;089 | 37/492 +123
Unfilled orders : 109/988 | 109,855 | 111/826 | +0.1 “18 -03 | 1097625 | 109,208 | 103,712 +57
Defense :
Shipments... . . 6,652 6,278 6,669 | +60 39] 422 5,817 6,733 5,691 422
New orders. 2): : 6,654 5:205 6.019 | +278} -135| +190 3143 4910 3,919 +312
Unfilled orders lt 93,904 | 93/902 | 94,975 00 aa 07 | 93,712 | 94386 | 97,894 43

(NA) Not available, * Revised

" Shipments and new orders are the uals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-monuh variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and ure not adjusted for tring-day vo ealendar-month variations

" Based om advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
tesponse und nonteporting. Since the survey papel is natu probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be Calculated. Further deals on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent anal
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), “Manufacturers” Shipments. Inventories, and Orders; 1987-1996,"

The Capital Goods lodusties include Nondefense : ordnance an! acessories, steam engines and tuthines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, tefigerution, heating und service industry machinery, electrical fansmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
Complete aicraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, raleoad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital goods include ordnance, ‘communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Tuly ] July 1998- | Year ago Tuly | July 1998-| _ Year ago Tuly | July 1998-

July 1998 | 1994-1998 | June 1999 | July 1998] 1994-1998 | June 1999] July 1998] 1994-1998] June 1999

Durable goods........... 04 03 0s 0s 04 22 04 0.1 0s

Primary metals 03 03 10 Ll 04 23 0.3 03 0.8

Industrial machinery and equi pm nt 02 07 1.0 03 0.7 18 0.0 01 08
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 0.0 0.5 Ml 3.0 13 38 7 0.5 11

Transportation equipment 17 09 17 08 09 6.5 Ol Ol 06

Nondefense capital goods ... 03 0.6 14 0.6 06 3.9 Ot 0.1 04

Defense capital goods . 05 08 23 24 3.5 24.1 02 03 10

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign,
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

225 225
New Orders

215 -- - > tr rr Shipments |-] 215

205

205
195 195

185 185

175 L 1 1 1 L 1 4 1 1 1 L 1 L 175
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May = Jul

Jul. 1997 - Jul. 1999

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
64 64

New Orders

59 | Shipments | ---------------------------------- +59

aq n 1 n 1 L L 1 L n L L Ld 44

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May = Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul
Jul. 1997 - Jul. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.