Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
Shipments and Three Month

Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars

Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars
155000 158000 160000, 16000:
155000 ry A 15500
150000 150000
Vaan 150000 15000
"43000 y \ 143000 |) 45000 |__//J \ 14500
\ :
140000 2 140000 || 140000 vA\ 14000:
vA 135000 135001
q 130000 XQ 13000:
130000 130000 125000 125001
BRESSESEE ES SS BRRSSSEEE ES EG
tase ec egcagse tg sa ee a es
BSER PFS RE FF SSSR P2535 RS FS
— — Shipments Average — = New Orders Average
Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UO/S Ratios
240000 240000 2.9 26
235000 235000 PAO
230000 Sf 230000 24 24
225000 of NX 225000
220000 fo 220000 || 1.9 us
215000 rez 215000 pe
210000 210000 14 14
BRRS8SSS REE ES 988888885 5 6
Seog ec eta efig sas egg gra es
SSSR S533 558 5 S325 5 355 8 8 ES
—_— — Inventories Average _—_— OS uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


~
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars.
210000 210000 250000 250000
240000 240000
205000 t A. 205000 }
I _/ 230000 1 230000
n \
zon 7) 200000 || 22500 ! zone
195000 L \ 195000 |} 210000 210000
Vv
200000 200000
190000 \ 190000 \
Y UU 190000 a 190000
185000 185000 180000 180000
RRR888888555 5 8828888885555
gas etd eigg 34 eee5 438 € EEE
33885853 8255 5 SSSR FSeER EES
— = Shipments Average — = New Orders Average
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars VS Ratios UO /S Ratios
315000 315000 4.75
4.25 425
f m\ 375 3.75
305000 305000
\ 3.25 3.25
2.75 2.75
295000 295000
LLY 2.25 2.25
“7s “7s
285000 285000 1.25 4.25
s207eeg928892r257e e2e2egegeegeg8s5s555
72 9 9998 28999 8 77 7 279 92822992 8
Ses ehb5a SEE EE $4 ee eegage gg
SES SeS335 23558 SSSR S253 35 8 58
— = inventories Average _—_—— HS uo/s

Note: All charts based

on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dolla Bilions Of Dollars
75000 75000 || 85000 85000
72000 7000 || °°°°° 4 80000
/ aa vsonn LAS 75000
«so \ \ oe AY
I voow | fh ron
66000 L \ YH 66000 y
65000 65000
DW \ \
63000 63000
60000 60000
60000 60000 55000 55000
2228888885555 2298898885555
3338835358 558 SeeRSE3R 58 8 2%
—  — Shipments Average — — New orders Average
Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars VS Ratios VO/S Ratios
135000 135000 5.5 55
5.0 5.0
rN
130000 Ft 130000
\ 4.0 40
N
35 35
3.0 3.0
125000 125000,
25 25
2.0 2.0
~
120000 120000 Ls
eege2e2e2egee928eee5 222e2eegeeee8se5c5
77 7999929297922 72929299 8 92 2 ¢
— = inventories Average _— 1S —_——_ vo/s

Note: All charts based

on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Mi

ES DEPARTMENT OF

RCE

Bef es ss
PLE = 2727
B= = — WASHINGTON, DC 20230

ECONOMICS
AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS

Bureau of the Census
For Data - (301) 457-4673

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
August 24, 2001

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-01-140
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(01)-07
ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
July 2001

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $1.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $182.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.6 percent June decrease. Excluding
transportation, new orders decreased 1.4 percent. Year to date, new orders are 11.6 percent below the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products had the largest decrease, $1.5 billion or 4.4 percent to $32.5 billion, due to semiconductors.
Machinery decreased $0.7 billion or 3.0 percent to $23.5 billion. Transportation equipment increased $0.7 billion or 1.3
percent to $53.0 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts; nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $0.9 billion or 10.6 percent to
$7.6 billion.

@ SHIPMENTS of durable goods in July increased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $187.9 billion, following a 2.5 percent June
decrease. Year to date, shipments are 6.2 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $0.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $54.4 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts;
nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $0.4 billion or 4.6 percent to $8.5 billion. Machinery increased $0.4 billion or 1.5
percent to $24.6 billion. Computers and electronic products, led by nondefense communications equipment and semiconductors,
decreased $1.2 billion or 3.4 percent to $35.7 billion; this is the seventh consecutive decrease. Electrical equipment decreased
$0.4 billion or 3.8 percent to $10.5 billion; this is the largest decrease since September 1999.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for durable goods in July, down seven consecutive months, decreased $5.9 billion or 1.0 percent to
$568.2 billion, following a 0.8 percent June decrease; this is the largest decrease since January. Computers and electronic
products, led by semiconductors, had the largest decrease, $3.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $133.1 billion; this is the eighth
consecutive decrease. Transportation equipment decreased $1.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $286.2 billion; nondefense aircraft and
parts decreased $1.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $149.9 billion. Machinery, down six of the last seven months, decreased $1.0
billion or 1.6 percent to $60.3 billion.

e@ INVENTORIES for durable goods in July, down six consecutive months, decreased $1.9 billion or 0.6 percent to
$299.0 billion, following a 1.1 percent June decrease. Computers and electronic products, down five consecutive months, had
the largest decrease, $0.8 billion or 1.4 percent to $56.8 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in July increased $0.8 billion or 15.6 percent to $6.3 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.3 billion or 4.1 percent to $6.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $123.8
billion. Inventories decreased 0.3 percent to $18.2 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in July, down four consecutive months, decreased $1.2
billion or 1.9 percent to $60.2 billion. Shipments, down four of the last five months, decreased $1.1 billion or 1.7 percent to
$63.6 billion. Unfilled orders, down seven consecutive months, decreased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $268.3 billion.
Inventories, down six consecutive months, decreased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $128.5 billion.

© REVISED JUNE DATA Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $336.8
billion (revised from $337.7 billion); new orders, $332.4 billion (revised from $334.6 billion); unfilled orders, $574.1 billion
(revised from $575.4 billion); and total inventories, $472.3 billion (revised from $473.3 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods data will be published August 31, 2001 at 10:00 A.M. The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled for September 27, 2001 at 8°30 A.M.


Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars. Billions Of Dollars
50000 50000 55000 $5000
\ n
47000 -— £ 47000 $0000 4 50000

muvee

44000 a \ 44000 45000 45000
1000 DA \ \ V

ol \ 41000 40000 iy 40000
38000 \ 38000 35000 \ 35000
35000 35000 30000 30000
2928888885556 BERS 88888 5555
gage gcsia eg ag sap ecpedcgasetrad
S338 S35 SR 82% S388 2553 88 Bg ®
— = Shipments —— Average — — = New Orders Average
Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars VS Ratios ‘UO/S Ratios
65000 65000 4s 45
4.0 4.0
35 35
60000 60000
3.0 3.0
25 25
55000 55000
__ Oe 2.0 20
Ms “Ls
50000 50000 1.0 1.0
RR988 888 S555 8 R298 8888 85558
sae eee ge ee gg sa eee ga epg
BSSRSSSSS RE ES Sg SR ES 398 SE ES
— = Inventories Average _—— 1s vo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
Seasonaly Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthiy Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Jul Jun May Jun = May - Apr - Jul Jun Jul Jul
20017 | 2001' 2001 Jul? Jun! May 20017 | 2001 2000 | 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipment: 187,945] 187,616] 192,463 +0.2 2.5 +3.2| 157.742] 206,146] 172,267] -8.4
New Orders. 182/024] 183/203] 188,089 06 -2:6| +28) 151,254] 196,711] 176,518]  -14.3
Excluding transportatio
Shipments..... 133,535] 133,941] 138,148 0.3) -3.0] +0.7] 120,410] 147,090] 135,423) -11.1
New Orde 129,042| 130,924] 133,729) “1.4 241 +2.7| 117/888] 140,475| 140/486] -16.1
Excluding defen:
Shipments 180,572] 180,009] 185,482 +03 -3.0| +3.1] 151,204] 197,721] 166,292) -9.1
New Orders... 174,770] 176,596) 180,533, 10) -2.2| +28) 146,837] 190/650] 172/364] -14.8

Primary metals:

Shipments. 12,099] 11,881] 12,340 +18 -3.7 +47] 10,971] 12,427) 12,439] -11.8
11/935] 12:126] 12/455) -1:6| -2.6| +7.0| 10,783] 12/399] 12/042} -10.5
20,332] 20,098} 20,729 +12 -3.0] +2.4) 18,970] 21,332] 20,062 5.4
20/356 20/180] 20,500 +09 1.6] 43.5) 19,218] 211271} 20,073 43
Machinery:
‘Shipments, 24,553| 24,193] 25,266 +15 “4.2 +1.8) 21,646] 26,785] 22,921 5.6
New Orde 23/543] 24/265) 24/645) -3.0) “15 +2.3| 20,833] 25.485] 23/886) -12'8.
Computers and electronic products:
Shipments... 35,712) 36,956] 37,811 -3.4] 2.3 -3.2) 30,233] 42,560] 40,058] -24.5
New Orders. 32,459 33/964] 35,168) “4.4 -3.4) +11] 27/915] 38/363) 43/715] -36.1
Computers and r.
shipments, 8,780] 8,677 9,414) +1.2 7.8| 8.5 7,332] 10,996] 10,022] -26.8
New Orders. 8,440 "804} 9,262 - -4.9) 6.2) 7/061] 11,007] 9,774) -27.8
Communications equipmen
Shipments. 6719] 7,176] 7,246 -6.4| -1.0] -2.9) 5,608} 8,513| 8,094] -30.7
New Orders. 6,254] 5,286) 6,109} + 18.3] 13:5) 16.4] 4/552] 6/517 1398] -45.8
Semiconductor:
Shipments. 6,748] 7,150] 7,298 -5.6| -6.7 5,704] 7,832} 8,380] -31.9
New Orders. 4'583| 6,191 6.532 -26.0 +34.6 5,098] 6,275] 11/542] -55.8

Electrical equipment, appliances,
‘and components:

‘Shipments. 10,540] 10,960] 11,292] -3.8] +0.8] 9,312] 12,133] 10,060 74

New Orders. 10,728} 10,580] 10,757 +1.4) -0.4] 9,708} 11,450] 10,452 TA
Transportation equipment

Shipments. 54,410} 53,675) 54,315) +1.4) +10.0) 37,332 59,056) 36,844) +1.3

New Orders. 52,982) 52,279) 54,360} +13 +3.2| 33,366 56,236 36,032 TA

Motor vehicles and part

Shipments 38,195} 36,778] 38,540) +3.9) 48.5] 24,216] 39,894) 25,319] -4.4
New Orders. 38,045] 36,669} 38,338 +38 46.8) 24,172] 39,529] 25,414) -4.9
Aircraft and part
Shipments 11,075} 11,748] 10,882 6.7 +80] +17.3] 8,659] 13,488] 7,400)
New Orders. 91986] 10,725] 11,551 -6.9| 7.2 +39] 5,770] 12,733] «6/908
All other durable good:
Shipments. 30,299] 29,853] 30,710 +15] +2.2| 29,278] 31,853] 29.883]
New Orde 30,015] 29/803] 30.204 +0.7| +3.7| 29/431] 31/507] 30,318
Capital goods:
Ghoments, 69,999] 71,366] 72,616 1.9 +1.9) 60,643] 81,180] 67,156]
New Orders. 66,514] 66,819] 69,937 05 “1:3 67/945
Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments. 63,595] 64,686] 66,527 17 +16] 54,875] 73,825] 61,993]
New Orders. 60,225] 61,379] 63,765 “1:9 -1:3[ 50,4901 68;763] 64/102
Defense capital good
shipments. 6.404] 6,680] 6,089 “4.1 +9.7 +58] 5,768] 7,355] «5,163
New Orders. 6,289} 5.440] 6,172] + 15.6 -11.9} -1:2]} 4,270] 4644] 3843}
(NA) Not Available * Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and
are not adjusted for trading-day or calndar-month variations.

® Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is

foonsampling eror. which includes errors of coverage, response and ronreporting. Since the survey panel i not 2 probabllty sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.

Further details on survey design, methodology. and data limitations are in our most recent rk , Current Industrial Reports: M3-1100),
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2000.”

® The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance: farm machinery and equipment
machinery; vending, laundry, and other machinery: photographic equipment; metalworking m:
Compressors: material handling equipment: all other machinery: elactronie computors; computer storage a devices, eter computer perghoralequpmants comminiertions ‘equipment;
search and navigation equipment; electromedical, instruments; oat : other ‘equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks;
aircraft: railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies.

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, equipment, aircraft; missiles, space ‘and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.



3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES

(Millions of Dollars)

‘Seasonally Adjusted

Not Seasonally Adiusted ©

Monthly Percent
Item Change
Jul Jun May Jul Jul Jul
20017 | 2001° 2001 20017 2000 | 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Orders. 568,161] 574,082] 578,495 565,829 581,622) -2.7
Total Inventories. 299,008} 300,897] 304,174 293,713 305,380] -1.9
Excluding transportatio
Unfilled Orders. 281,945] 286,438] 289,455 282,027 318,109] -11.3
Total Inventories 224,644] 226,353] 228,429) 224/703 227,092 at
Excluding defense:
Unfilled Orders. 426,108} 431,910] 435,323 424,509 443,187 4.2
Total Inventories 277,579] 279,428] 281,910) 277,306 281/920] -1.4
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders. 18,851} 19,015] 18,770 18,992! 20,817
Total Inventories. 20/838) 21,128} 21,456] 20,866} 23,095
Fabricated metal product
Unfilled Orders 42,043] 42,019] 41,937 42,470) 43,857 3.2
Total Inventories. 34/278] 34/410] 34/912 34/497 35,211 2.0
Machinery:
Unfilled Orders. 60,256] 61,260] 61,188 59,590] 63,398 6.0
Total Inventori 50,862] 50,994] 51,023 50,500} 49,196] +2.7
Computers and electronic produc:
Unfilled Orders. 133,097] 136,350] 139,342 132,911 157,143] -15.4
Total Inventories. 56,775] 57,563] 58,532 57,215 57.902] -1.2
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders. 10,060] 10,400} 1. 10,153 9,553] +6.3
Total Inventori 8,755 8,786| “3. 8,773 8,897 14
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 45,020] 45,485} 47,375) -2.3] 44,566 48,936] 8.9
Total Inventories, 11/432 11,6 0.2] 11,288 12,938] -12.8
Semiconductors:
Unfilled Orders. 15,256] 17,421] 18,380 . 15,524 32,427] -52.1
Total Inventories. 737: 8,472] 8,451 .2] 8,128 7,426] +9.5
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders. 17,599] 17,411] 17,791 -2.9] 17,560) 19,395 9.5
Total Inventories. 15,235] 15,487] 15,776 -1.2| 15,206 15,118] +0.6
Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 286,216] 287,644] 289,040 0.0] 283,802 263,513] +7.7
Total Inventories. 74,364) 741544) 75,745 0.4) "75,010 78,288) 4.2
Motor vehicles and part:
Unfilled Orders. 12,833] 12,983] 13,092 1.5] 12,581 14,065] -10.6
Total Inventories. 21,538] 21,704) : -1:8] 21,778 23,264) 6.4
Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 195,963] 197,052] 198,075 0.3| 194,597 174,995] +11.2
Total Inventories. 41,003] 40,875] 41,228) 0.0 41/308 5, 4.0
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 10,099] 10,383) 10,427 4.6] 10,504 13,499] -22.2
Total Inventories. 46,656] 46,771] 46,730 0.3] 46,419 46,570 -0.3
Capital peasy
infilled Orders. 392,070] 395,555} 400,102 -0.7| 388,969) 387,998] +0.3
Total Inventories. 146,710] 147,325] 149,203 -0.5] 147) 148,165 0.8
Nondefense capital good:
Unfilled Orders. 268,300] 271,670 274,977 -1.0] 266,169 264,323] +0.7
Total Inventori 128,493] 129/059] 130,179 -0.6] 128,467 128,631 0.1
Defense capital good
Unfilled Orders 123,770] 123,885] 125,125 0.1] 122,800 123,675 -0.7
Total inventories. 18,217 266} 0. 18,555 19,534] -5.0

See footnotes at end of Table 1