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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1994 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY ~
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report Regular Report

Report. Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1993 Thur., Jan. 27 Thurs., Feb. 3
January 1994 Thur., Feb. 24 Thurs., Mar. 3
February 1994 Wed., Mar. 23 Wed., Mar. 30
March 1994 Wed., Apr. 27 Wed., May 4
April 1994 Wed., May 25 Thurs., June 2
May 1994 Thur., June 23 Thur., June 30
June 1994 Wed., July 27 Wed., Aug. 3
July 1994 Wed., Aug. 24 Wed., Aug. 31
August 1994 Wed., Sept. 28 Wed., Oct. 5
September 1994 _ Wed., _ Wed. , Nov. 2— ee
October 1994 Wed., Fri., Dec. 2
November 1994 Fri., Dec. 23 Thur., Jan 5, 1995

The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders press
release can be faxed to you on the day of issue at a cost of $120
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to this service, or would like more information, please call
Sandy Sollinger at (301) 763-2604.



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

AND
STATISTICS
COMMERCE | pitirs..
N EVs WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 PUR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth January 27, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB94-16
M3-1(93)-12 :

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
December 1993
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $3.1 billion or 2.2 percent to $142.8 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.3 percent increase in November and is the
fifth monthly increase in a row, the longest string of consecutive monthly increases since February to July 1987. For the year,
new orders totaled $1,597 billion, up 8.6 percent from 1992.

The largest increase was in electronic and other electrical equipment, up $1.1 billion or 5.4 percent to $21.0 billion,
due to electronic components and communications equipment. Transportation equipment increased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent
to $34.8 billion, with increases in all industry categories except aircraft and parts.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in December increased $3.2 billion or 2.2 percent to $145.7 billion. This follows a 3.2
percent increase in November and is the fifth consecutive monthly increase. All major groups increased except lumber and
wood products. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $1.1 billion or 3.0 percent to $37.8 billion, due to
aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.7 billion or 3.6 percent
to $21.2 billion, primarily due to communications equipment. For the year, durable goods shipments totaled $1,628 billion,
up 8.1 percent from 1992.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in December decreased $2.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $421.2 billion, the lowest level
since March 1988. This is the tenth consecutive monthly decline and twenty-ninth in the last thirty-four months.
Transportation equipment decreased for the twentieth consecutive month, down $3.0 billion or 1.4 percent to $213.1 billion,
as a decline in aircraft and parts more than offset an increase in railroad equipment. Excluding transportation equipment,
unfilled orders were unchanged. Instruments and related products also had a large decrease. Industrial machinery and
equipment, up for the sixth consecutive month, had the largest increase, up $0.8 billion or 1.4 percent to $53.4 billion. Durable
goods unfilled orders are 6.9 percent lower than year-end 1992.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were up $0.7 billion or 12.6 percent to $5.9 billion. This follows a 0.5 percent decrease in
November. Shipments were down $0.3 billion or 4.6 percent to $6.7 billion, following a 7.4 percent decrease in November.
Unfilled orders, down for eleven consecutive months and twenty-three of the last twenty-four months, decreased $0.8 billion
or 0.6 percent to $117.0 billion, the lowest level since October 1983.

Nondefense - New orders increased $0.7 billion or 2.0 percent to $35.6 billion, following a 6.3 percent increase in
November. Shipments were up $1.8 billion or 5.1 percent to $37.1 billion, following a 4.7 percent increase in November.
Unfilled orders, down nineteen of the last twenty-one months, decreased $1.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $198.0 billion, the lowest
level since May 1989, Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $2.1 billion or 6.6 percent, the tenth increase in the
last eleven months; shipments increased $0.8 billion or 2.8 percent, the seventh increase in the last eight months; and unfilled
orders increased $1.8 billion or 2.4 percent, the eleventh increase in the last thirteen months.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1994 RELEASE DATES)

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published February 3, 1994. The advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled for
February 24, 1994. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-
3870) and through the Census Burea information service-CEND. Further informa! accessing CENDATA can be obtained from



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted ‘Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Dec, Nov. Oct. Nov.; Oct. | Sept.- Dec, Noy. Dec,
1993? 1993" 1993 Dec? Nov. ct. 1993? 1993" 1992 | Dec.93/92
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments + 145,722 142,564 138,153 42.2 +32 +0.5 144,883 142,733 131,841 +99
New orders 139,688 136,613 +22 +23 42.6 142,906 139,437 132,707 +77
Unfilled orders | 424,104 426,980 0.7 0.7 0.4 418,479 420,456 450,125 -7.0
Excluding defense

hipment . 139,014 135,529 130,553 42.6 +38 +0.4 136,503 135,312 121,831 412.0
New orders 136, 832 134,410 131,309 +18 +24 43.6 134,273 133,389 121,909 +10.1
Unfilled orders 304;1 306,301 307,420 0.7 04 +0.2 00,948 303,178 320,345 6.1

With unfilled orders }
Shipments . . 115,224 112,864 109,802 421 42.8 -0.3 118,557 113,498 109,833 +79
New orders 112,278 109,988 108,262 421 +16 +23 116,580 110,202 110,699 45.3

Primary metals :
hipments 12,202 11,852 11,354 43.0 +44 -15 11,069 11,639 10,144 +91
New orders 12,040 11,838 11,685 +17 13 +15 11,498 11,554 11,509 0.1
Unfilled orders 22,229 22,391 22,405 07 0.1 +15 21,460 21,031 20,676 +3.8
Industrial machinery and equipment: ~~ -

Shipments . wee wees 26,298 25,650 24,345 S +5.4 0.2 29,217 24,970 24,452 +19.5
New orders 27,055 26,673 25,023 +14 +6.6 +2.0 29,903 26,187 24,015 424.5,
Unfilled orders 53,423 52,666 51,643 +14 +2.0 413 53,226 52,540 50,119 +62

Electronic and other
electrical equipment : :
Shipments sees 21,231 20,492 19,882 43.6 +31 08 22,248 21,213 | 19,693 +13.0
21,044 19,961 21,504 45.4 72 +45 21,671 20,737 19,524 +110
Oana ordefs) 45,357 45;544 46,075 04 12 43.6, 44,719 45,296 42,087 +63
‘Transportation equipment :
Shipments . 37,796 36,710 36,321 43.0 +11 +33 36,468 37,118 35,043 +41
orders 34,842 34,440 2,768 +12 +5. $5.7 33,982 35,253 34,036 02
Vatiued orders 213,112 216,066 218,336 14 -10 lL 213/258 215,744 245,846 133
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total :

Shipments _ 43,821 42,336 41,304 435 42.5 +10 51,688 41,981 48,195 +72

New orders. 41,532 40,170 38,129 4 +5.4 +18 50,234 40,430 47,598 +55

Unfilled orders : 315,018 317/307 319,473 07 0.7 -1 315,247 316,701 346,964 t 91

Nondefense :

Shipments . 37,113 35,301 33,704 +5. +4.7 +1.0 43,308 34,560 38,185 +134
orders. 35,588 34,892 32,825 +2.0 +63 +5.9 41,601 34,382 36,800 +13.0
Dated orders 197,979 199,504 199913 0.8 0.2 04 197,716 423 217,184 9.0
Exgluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . 1,390 30,547 28,681 42.8 +6.5 40.2 36,016 30,000 30,221 +19.2
New orders. | 33,172 31,120 29,984 +6.6 43.8 433 37,616 0,804 29,949 +25.6
Unfilled orders”: : 14d 74,359 73,786 42.4 +08 +18 75,878 74,278 70,260 +8.0

Defense :

6,708 7,035 7,600 4.6 74 +11 8,380 7,421 10,010 16.3
5,944 35,278 5,304 +12.6 05 “17.7 8,633 6,048 10,798 -20.1
117,039 117/803 119,560 0.6 “LS -19 117,531 117,278 129,780 94

(NA) Not available

"Shipments and new odes are he taal fore prod and are je for wading-ay and clnda-moat variation; filed ores are as of he end of the period and ae et adjusted fr wading-ay of alendar-month variations,
“Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufactures shipments and ores are ube! fo survey vary and revision, Since he survey pane isnot a probably sample, ima of sampling vail cant be on

Furher details on survey design, methodology, and data

2 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, ere metalworking
office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, cia ‘ansmisin ‘and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,

machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and
‘complete aircraft, missile

in our most recene annual

‘and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pans, ships and tank

‘Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), “Manufactuers’ Shipments, Taventories,

‘ad Orders: 1982-1992."

ion mining, and material

7. special industry

‘and search and navigation

Fe neat * odo cootunicuionCqupment cat, meses, space whe, und puts sgn avis an ak conponsn seach an mavigaion eu!

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Dec] Dec. 1992-] Year ago Dec] Deo. 1992-| Year ago Dec | Dec. 1992-

Dec. 1992 | 1988-1992 | Nov. 1993 | Dec. 1992] 1988-1992 | Nov. 1993] Dec. 1992] 1988-1992 | Nov. 1993

Durable goods . . 04 0.2 03 03 03 ot 01 0.1 0.1

Primary metals . 03 04 04 23 08 Ll 03 0.5

Industrial machinery 05 0.5 08 03 0.7 u 3 03 02 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 02 03 0.6 03 0.3 1.0 0.1 01 03

Transportation equipment . . 09 04 0.6 03 0.2 ni 02 0.0 Oo!

Nondefense i oods 01 03 07 0.0 05 Ll 0.0 0.1 0.1

Defense capi 2.1 0.9 08 23 14 2.6 03 0.1 0.1

Note: The revisions are the
for the months specified.

srences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

160 160
New Orders

180 Fo = Shipments | 150

140

130

120

120

110 i L i 1 J 1 i L L L L i i 110
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1991 - Dec. 1993

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

45 45
New Orders
40} ----------------------------------- Shipments |-] 40

25 bn n n n 1 n n L n n 1 L Li o5

Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1991 - Dec. 1993

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.