Billions Of Dollars
155000 155000 160000 160000
155000 ry 15$000
150000 150000 )
\
150000 }-4 Ly 150000
145000 145000 1
145000 FY \ 145000
| 140000 140000 || 140000 \ 140000
. vA\
135000 a 135000
135000 135000 \ Ne
\ 130000 Pd 130000
i 125000 | 125000
| la
| Vv y
125000 125000 || iz0000 120000
8888885555558 2288885555558
ee ea asec sgage ee esa eeesztaie
e232 238383338 BESARSRS PASSE
Shipments Average — — neworders Average
\ y
-
Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios ‘UO/SS Ratios
| 240000 240000 |} 3.4 34
235000 235000
225000 225000
\ 24 24
220000 4 ‘ 220000
\ 19 La
|
! 205000 208000 }| 1.4 Ma
| 88s ssesesees $3388 35s 5555 8 |
ee bah SEER ERT E ee ee GREE ET ETE
See 52353885338 S235 R FRSSFSRESERB
— — Inventories Average —_—_—— 1/5 —_— «(Oss

Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
Shipments and Three Month

Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars

Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

_,

Note: All charts

based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


la —
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Bilions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
210000 210000 |} 250000 250000
205000 205000 || 240000 i 240000
100
200000 V 200000 | | 230900 I 2300
195000 195000 |
ha 210000 210000
190000 V en 190000 .
200000 200000
185000 \ 185000 Wa
\ 190000 190000
8000 18
175000 d. 175000 || 170000 v 170000
170000 170000 || 160000 160000
$8888 sss5558 888888 sssgase
pe eRR5e ERR 452 ee e543 222232
S255 28 FF R888 S275 2 83 25388
— = Shipments Average — New Orders Average
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UO/S Ratios
315000 315000 |} 4.75 4.75
4.25 4.25
305000 305000
3.75 3.75
\ sas nas
295000 \ 295000
\ 278 275
2.25 2.25
285000 AN 285000
175 1.75
275000 275000 || 1.25 1.25
gsseeenrzee eee ggsegseseegegeee ener nea
S228 F289 28S 9 223225 9°97979F393 |
Berea S 5 ESA BGE &: esas ¢ $b gabe
S255 FSSFRREE Sse 54 8 8S FREES
—— Inventories ==——— Average —— 1s voys
Note: All

charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Nondefense Capital Goods
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Buions Of Dollars
75000 75000 || 85000 85000
| 2000 . 72000 || #0000 80000
75000 75000
69000 69000 \
| 70000 70000
6000 VN séo00 an
|
65000 65000
| \
N 0000 S 0000
60000 Tw 60000 || sso00 55000
| 57000 57000 || 50000 50000
3883885555553 2888885555558
| a a eae po a ee a a Se Sa a
See 4 2RSE7H BS SS FF R288 5 55 28
— = Shipments Average — me New Orders Average
Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios ‘VOUS Ratios
| 138000 135000 5.5 3.5
\
VAN : :
130000 130000 || 4.5 45
4.0 4.0
125000 Nw 125000 3.5 3.5
\ 3.0 3.0
120000 120000 || 2.5 28
2.0 20
115000 115000 || 1.5 1s
eseeseegssssesy ee see 8 er ce oe ops sg
ee eer e er @<s@Ieg eee? 88 88 eggs
ete 5 a3 55 F555 85 ee ege sets se ge
Ss 2752 3335528 8s + 32a 8 55 388
= inventories Average — — Is vo/s

Note: All charts

based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF

ECONOMICS °

SCAND! 0
STATISTICS =
INISTRATION |

BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS

WASHINGTON, DC 20230

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 February 27, 2002
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-02-32

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(02)+1

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS! SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
JANUARY 2002

(All figures in text beiow are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in January increased $4.6 billion or 2.6 percent to $179.1 billion, the Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.9 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders
increased 1.3 percent. New orders for January 2002 were 2.2 percent below January 2001.

Transportation equipment, led by motor vehicles and parts, had the largest increase, $2.9 billion or 5.9 percent to $52.1 billion;
nondefense aircraft and parts increased $0.2 billion or 3.3 percent to $5.4 billion. Computers and electronic products, up four
consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 2.2 percent to $34.1 billion, due to semiconductors.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in January increased $5.3 billion or 2.9 percent to $186.1 billion. This follows a 0.8 percent
December increase. Shipments for January 2002 were 3.8 percent below January 2001.

Transportation equipment, up four consecutive months, had the largest increase, $2.1 billion or 3.9 percent to $56.4 billion, mostly due to
aotor vehicles and parts; nondefense aircraft and parts increased $0.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $8.5 billion. With the largest increase on
record, machinery increased $1.3 billion or 6.0 percent to $23.7 billion, mostly due to turbines, generators, and other power transmission
equipment. Computers and electronic products, up four consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 2.0 percent to $34.8 billion, due to
semiconductors. Primary metals increased $0.5 billion or 4.8 percent to $11.4 billion; this was the largest increase since December 1994.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for durable goods in January, down twelve of the last thirteen months, decreased $7.0 billion or 1.3 percent to
$536.7 billion. This follows a 1.2 percent December decrease.

‘Transportation equipment, down seven of the last eight months, had the largest decrease, $4.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $272.4 billion;
nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $3.1 billion or 2.3 percent to $130.5 billion. Machinery, down seven consecutive months,
decreased $0.8 billion or 1.4 percent to $57.0 billion. Computers and electronic products, down fourteen consecutive months, decreased
$0.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $124.4 billion.

@ INVENTORIES for durable goods in January, down twelve consecutive months, decreased $1.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $281.3
billion. This follows a 1.0 percent December decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $73.4 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts increased
$0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $31.0 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in January decreased $0.2 billion or 2.7 percent to $5.9 billion.
Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $7.5 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.6 billion or 1.2 percent to $131.6 billion.
Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $18.7 billion.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in January increased $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $56.0 billion.
Shipments increased $1.4 billion or 2.4 percent to $61.2 billion. Unfilled orders, down thirteen consecutive months, decreased $5.2
billion or 2.1 percent to $240.1 billion. Inventories, down twelve consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $120.0
billion.

@ REVISED DECEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$327.0 billion (revised from $326.7 billion); new orders, $320.7 billion (revised from $322.2 billion); unfilled orders, $543.7 billion
(revised from $545.6 billion); and total inventories, $447.9 billion (revised from $448.8 billion).

Our internet site address is: http:/Mwww.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods
data will be published March 6, 2002 at 10:00 A.M. The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for March 26, 2002 at 8:30 A.M.


Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Bilions Of Dallas Bilions Of Dolars
55000 55000
48000 48000
50000 50000
45000 }-—_, ——{ 45000
i || 45000 45000
| 42000 42000 |
! \
i \ 40000 40000
| 39000 F-—— 39000
\ 35000 35000
36000 \ 36000
33000 \ AZ 33000 || 30000 30000
i
30000 30000 || 25000 - 25000
8883385555558 g8888s 555g es
i ei ae Ee E545 8 eee Ra Sg EEE agg
i £28532 53887528 \ Be S283 8 S28
| |
| —  — Shipments Average | — = New orders average
Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic *)
Products Products
j Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars. WS Ratios ‘UO/S Ratios
! 65000 65000 || 4.5 5.0
i |
4.0 4s
60000 60000 4.0
35
35
3.0
55000 55000 3.0
\ 25
\ 25
H 20
50000 \ 50000 2.0
—
1s ——— 1S
45000 45000 1.0 1.0
8882835555558 2888885555558
ee eg SEE EE EEE ees gb ee i gage
REPS ReSESSRESE SESS S322 33 58 8
— = inventories Average — — 1s uo/s
\

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS
(Millions of Dollars)

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
‘Monthly Percent Change Monthi Pere
Item Chant
Jan Dec N Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan Jan
20027 | 2001' 2001 Jan? Dec! Nov 20027 | 2001° 2001 | 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total: 5
Shipments. 186,066] 180,806] 173,439 +29 +08 -0.4] 162,876] 180,578) 167,894 -3.0
New Orders. 179,055] 174/467} 172/952 +26 +08 6.1] 166,236] 479,945) 173,713 4.3
Excluding transportation: .
Shipments. 129,690] 126,541] 126,358) +25 +01 1.6} 113,075} 128,734) 125,650 10.0
New Orders. 127,001] 125,333] 124/820 +13 +04 +0.6] 116,232) 127.052} 128,086 “3.3
Excluding defense:
neShipments. sccme| 177,579] 172,487] 172,028) +3.0) +0.3 -0.6} 155,886] 170,834] 162,449 4.0
New OrderS.c..ccccecrnssneeen| 171,407] 167,537] 166,388) +23 +0.7 +1.4| 157,678} 166,801] 167,705 “6.0
Primary metals:
mary shipments. 11,425) 10,904] 11,215 +48 2.8 2.8) 10,999 9,548} 11,934 7.8
New Orders... cewn| 11,087] 10,788} 10,823 +28 -0.3 0.4[ 11,343 8,786 12,482| 91
rence ements es 20,194{ 19,939] 20,089 3 0.7 -1.0] 18,455] 18,203) 18,869 “2.2
New Orders. 19,930} 19,652| 19,488 +14 +08 -1.2} 18,828] 17/903) 191455 -3.2
Machin ments . 23,656] 22,324) 22,721 +6.0 1.7) -3.5] 20,012] 22,551) 22,348] -10.4
New Orders. 22,831| 22,291] 22/616 42.4 “1.4 +2.0[ 20/618] 21,793] 23/483] -12.2
Computers and electronic products:
Pehipmentssncn nes nn 34.778 34,091] 33,232 +2.0 +25 +0.2) 28,666] 41,312) 36,095] -20.6
New Orders... vo] 34.704) 33/358] 32/381 +22 +37 +0.8| 30,22 41,012] 36,155] 16.4
Computers and related product
Shipments... ves 8,306 8,140 8,061 +2.0 +1.0 +18 8,349] 10,873 8,319] -23.7
New Orders. 81426 8,039 8,206 +48 -2.0 “04 108 0,265, 7,948} -20.6
Communications equipme:
Shipments.........0.-- ses 5,930) 6,008 5,809 1.3 +34 2.4 4,469 8,380 6,183] -27.7
New Orders. oe 5,749) 5,482 5,526 +48 0.8) +24 4,748 8,387 7,657| — -38.0
Semiconductors:
Shipments. 6,830 5,908 5,900) + 15.6 +041 “4.8 5,963 6,560 8,319
New Orders....... 6,998 6.127 5,318 +142 +15.2 “3.7 7155 6,134] 6,478
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Shipments.......... 9,718 9,921 9,693 “2.0 +24 4.2 8,215| 10,042 9,693) 15.2
New Orders... 91135; 3/620) gi941 5.0 3.2 +13 8,067 91655. 81820) -17/9
Transportation equipment:
ipment: - 56,376] 54,265] 53,081 +59 +2.2 42.3) 49,801] 51,844) 42,244) 417.9
New Orders 52,054| 49,134| 48/132 45.9 +24 20.0) 50,004] 52,893} 45,627/ +9.6
Motor vehicles and parts:
ShipMENES......c000--000- -| 38,963) 37,196] 36,784, +48 +h +18) 36,162] 31,666] 31,067} +16.4
New Orders...... sof 38721] 37/110) 36,754) +43 +10) +2.8) 36,462} 32/063) 31/471] +159
Aircraft and parts:
Shipments..... -| 11,384) 14.130) 11,323 +23) 1.7 +74 8,877) 13,835 7,926] +21.2
New Orders. an 81629 7,098 7,091 421.6 +01 -64.3 8.978] 12/735) 91439 -4.9
All other durable goods:
hipments......... 23,919] 29,362) 29,408 +19 0.2 21.0) 26,728] 27,078] 26,713] +0.1
New Orders. 29,914) 28624) 29/771 +10 0.5 +0.6)  27,147/ 26903] 26.691, +1.7
Capital goods?
shipments... 68,685] 67,174/ 65,498) +2.2 +2.6 -1.3] $6,840) 76,352) 61,650 7.8
New Orders. 61,856] 61/758] 62/166 +0.2 07 -18.3] 85,667} 76,582] 65/566) -15.1
Nondefense capital goods:
SIPMENS.vvovssercececereeee| 61,219] 59,785] 59,144 $2.4 +14 -1.4] 50,628} 67,910] 56,814] -10.9
New Orders. sosenen| 55,997] 55,738] 56,437 +05 1.2) +4.0/ 49,221] 65,037} 60,727] -18.9
Defense capital goods:
Shipments... 7,466) 7,389) 6,354) +10] +163 1.3 6,212 8,442 4,836] +28.5
New Orders. 5,859 6,019 5,728 27 +51 -70.1 6,446] 11/545 4,839] +33.2
(NA) Not Available” Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories ar of the end of the period anc
are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations. ‘eday 1 total inventories are as of the pi

Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey ertor and revision. One major component of Survey error is
Foner Bera ee serach includes errs of coverage, response and ronreporting. Since the survey. patel is not a probabilty sample, estimates of sornping erat sanget be called
Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Gunent neu rat Nee es Naa
‘Manufacturers’ Shipments, inventories, and Orders: 1992-2000." ° * tons °

include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farin machinery and equipment; construction
vending, laundry, and other machinery: photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and aenerotor
compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery: electronic computer
search and navigation equipment; electroniedical, measuring, and contral instrument
aircraft; railroad rolling stock: ships and boats; office and institutional furniture, and sedi

ind gas field machinery: industrial
pumps and

ions equipment;
heavy duty trucks;

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft: missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment 6


3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES
(Millions of Dollars)

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Jan Dec Nov Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan Jan
20027 | 2001° 2001 Dec’ Nov 20027 | 2001° 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Orders 536,665| 543,676] 550,015 43 “1.2, 542,852] 539,492) 597,833 9.2
Total Inventories. 281/271] 282/302] 285/663 “0.5 -110 278,434) 274/348) 310,313] -10.0
Excluding transportation:
Unfilled Orders sce] 264,242) 266,931] 268,139 -1.0) 0.5 265,970| 262,813] 310,918] -14.5
Total Inventories... 207/847| 208813] 212/446 05 17 206,803} 202/899] 233/676) -11.5
Excluding defense:
Unfilled Orders . 386,123] 392,295| 397,245 “1.6 1.2 389,953] 388,161] 456,676] -14.6
Total Inventories.......0| 258/724) 259/870] 263/898, -0.4] 15 257,120] 252/184] 287,392 10.5
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders... 16,889} 17,227) 17,343 -2.0 0.7 -2.2) 16,937] 16,587) 19,502} -13.2
Total Inventories. ceof 19,488] 19,766] 20,028 “14 “1.3 “1.4 19,639} 19,867] 22,751] -13.7
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders..... 39,316] 39,580] 39,867 -0.7 -0.7 -1.5] 39,149) 38,775] 43,227 9.4
Total Inventories. 32,448| 32/548| 33/090 0.3 1.6 -1.5] 32/235] 31/748] 35/604] -8.2,
Machin
‘Untiled Orders... ve 56.977] 57,802} $7,835 “1.4 -0.1 -0.2) 57,288} 56,682} 64,419) «11.1
Total Inventories. 48,344] 48/630} 49/088 -0.6 -0.9 -1.4] 48/065} 47/100] 51.531 67
Computers and electronic products:
Unfilled Orders... 124,376] 125,050] 125,783 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8] 125,742] 124,186] 151,112] -16.8
Total inventories... 49,088] 49,283) 50,934) 0.4] 3.2} -2.0| 48/403] 46,989] 60/317) -18.8
Computers and related products
Unfilled Orders. be 9,668} 9,548] 9,649) +13 -1.0) +1.5| 9,367] 3,407] 9,838 -4.8
Total Inventories, : 71431 1607 7/883 15 “3.5 “3.5 7,268] 6.895] 9,189] -20.9
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 40,136] 40,317! 40,843 0.4 1.3 -0.7] 40,700} 40,421} 50,292] -19.1
Total Inventories....--ees---- 8,609] 8,571 75 +04 7.8 0.8] 8,473] 8178/ 13/140] 35:5
Semiconductors:
Unfilled Orders... css 14,598} 14,430) 14,211 $1.2 +15 3.9] 15,109] 13,917] 23,489] -35.7
Total Inventories... 7,078} = 7,343) 7/429 36 “1.2 “15 7,100] 7,115] 8/408] -15.6
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Ordersiccccccc 15,864} 16,447] 16,748 3.5 1.8 +15} 16,0411 16,189] 19,506)
Total inventories... 14,560] 14/654] 14/826 0.6 “1.2, 1.2} 14,458] 14/171] 18/948
Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Orders....... 272,423| 276,745; 281,876 -1.6| 18 1.7] 276,882] 276,679] 286,915
Total Inventories. . 73,424 74,089 73,217 -0.9 +12 -1.6 72,631 71,449) 76,637
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders ccd 11,852} 11,893) 11,979 -2.0 -0.7 -0.2) 12,240) 11,940) 13,798) -11.3
Total Inventories: veven| 19,843 20/033} 20/228 0.4 -1.0) -2:8] 18,828] 19/678] 22/396] -11.5
Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders.....cccccssse 187,480| 190,235| 194,267 -1.4] -2. -2.1] 189,584] 189,483] 196,739] 3.6
Total Inventories. eves 41,4891 41,763} 40,983 “0.7 +13 “1.7/ 40,788} «39/821 42/241 34
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders . 10,820) 10,825] 10,563 0.0 +25 +3.6] 10,813] 10,394] 13,152} -17.8
Total Inventories....-.....0000 43/919] 43/915) 44/510] 0.0 1:3 “1.3} 44/003) 43/024] 47/627] -7'6
Capital goods:
wets Orders... 371,655] 378,484] 383,900 -1.8| 1.4 -0.8] 376,355] 377,529] 409,080] —-8.0
Total Inventories. 138,665] 139,064] 140/658 0.3 a4 “11 136,858} 133/685] 150,692 9.2
Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders .| 240,086] 245,308] 249,354 “24 1.6 -1.1] 242,224] 243,621] 284,557] -14.9
Total Inventories... s.| 119,875] 120/293) 122/078; 03 15 1:8] 118,342] 115,448] 131/802} -10.2
Defense capital good:
Unfilled Orders... 131,563] 193,176) 134,546) 1.2 -1.0) -0.5] 134,132] 133,898] 124,503} +7.7
Total Inventorie: 18,630, 18.77 18,580 -0.4] +10 +17] 181514] 18,237] 18,880] 2.0

See footnotes at end of Table 1