FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2016, AT 8:30 A.M. EST 

Adriana Stoica 

Economic Indicators Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (16)-1 

CB 16-26

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

January 2016 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in January 

increased $11.1 billion or 4.9 percent to $237.5 billion, 

the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, 

up following two consecutive monthly decreases, 

followed a 4.6 percent December decrease. Excluding 

transportation, new orders increased 1.8 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders increased 4.5 percent. 

 

 Transportation equipment, also up following two 

consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.2 

billion or 11.5 percent to $79.7 billion. 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, 

up two of the last three months, increased $4.6 billion, or 

1.9 percent, to $241.9 billion. This followed a 1.6 

percent December decrease. 

 Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three 

months, led the increase, $4.3 billion or 5.7 percent to 

$80.0 billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

January, up three of the last four months, increased $0.6 

billion or 0.1 percent to $1,187.7 billion. This followed 

a 0.5 percent December decrease. 

 Computers and electronic products, up twenty-five 

consecutive months, drove the increase, $0.7 billion or 

0.5 percent to $137.2 billion. 

Inventories 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, 

down six of the last seven months, decreased $0.4 

billion, or 0.1 percent, to $396.3 billion. This followed a 

0.2 percent December increase. 

 Primary metals, down twelve consecutive months 

drove the decrease, $0.7 billion or 2.0 percent to $33.8 

billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in January 

increased $14.0 billion or 21.6 percent to $79.2 billion. 

Shipments increased $2.9 billion or 3.9 percent to $78.3 

billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.1 

percent to $743.9 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 

billion or 0.1 percent to $175.4 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in January 

increased $1.1 billion or 11.9 percent to $10.2 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 4.8 percent to $9.6 

billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.4 

percent to $151.1 billion. Inventories increased $1.0 

billion or 4.6 percent to $22.3 billion. 

Revised December Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $457.3 

billion (revised from $456.5 billion); shipments, $468.3 

billion (revised from $467.0 billion); unfilled orders, 

$1,187.1 billion (revised from $1,187.4 billion); and 

total inventories, $641.5 billion (revised from $642.3 

billion). 

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor 

manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>. Revised and more detailed estimates, plus 

nondurable goods data, will be published on March 3, 2016, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The Advance Report on durable goods for February is 

scheduled for release on March 24, 2016 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. See back page for survey description. To receive the latest updates on the 

Nation's key economic indicators, download the America's Economy app for Apple and Android smartphones and tablets. To learn more 

about this release and the other indicators the U.S. Census Bureau publishes, join us for the Investigating Economic Indicators Webinar 

Series. For more information, visit www.census.gov/econ/webinar. 

“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or decrease. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan Change

2016 2 2015 r 2015 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2016 2 2015 r 2015 2016 2015 2016/2015

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Shipments................................ 241,912 237,309 241,186 1.9 -1.6 0.6 210,645 236,951 212,648 210,645 212,648 -0.9

 New Orders4

.............................. 237,465 226,399 237,380 4.9 -4.6 -0.5 209,565 242,126 208,282 209,565 208,282 0.6

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 161,928 161,634 160,704 0.2 0.6 -0.3 144,139 160,882 148,299 144,139 148,299 -2.8

 New Orders4

.............................. 157,716 154,872 155,977 1.8 -0.7 -0.5 143,700 153,898 147,419 143,700 147,419 -2.5

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 230,066 224,797 228,963 2.3 -1.8 1.1 201,390 222,656 203,345 201,390 203,345 -1.0

 New Orders4

.............................. 225,216 215,588 221,007 4.5 -2.5 -2.0 199,791 225,893 200,459 199,791 200,459 -0.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 171,714 168,087 172,021 2.2 -2.3 0.4 149,044 171,122 152,723 149,044 152,723 -2.4

 New Orders.............................. 172,318 162,043 173,166 6.3 -6.4 -1.0 153,760 180,474 154,107 153,760 154,107 -0.2

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 19,347 19,317 19,594 0.2 -1.4 -2.1 18,531 17,765 22,300 18,531 22,300 -16.9

 New Orders.............................. 19,394 19,265 19,184 0.7 0.4 -4.5 19,711 18,235 23,364 19,711 23,364 -15.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 30,157 29,718 29,570 1.5 0.5 0.3 27,480 27,853 28,230 27,480 28,230 -2.7

 New Orders.............................. 30,123 29,639 29,551 1.6 0.3 0.8 28,162 27,330 28,723 28,162 28,723 -2.0

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 33,238 32,995 32,336 0.7 2.0 -1.4 28,514 34,069 28,851 28,514 28,851 -1.2

 New Orders.............................. 33,032 30,901 32,229 6.9 -4.1 -2.7 30,205 30,952 30,910 30,205 30,910 -2.3

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Shipments................................ 29,879 30,043 30,024 -0.5 0.1 0.7 26,137 33,285 24,987 26,137 24,987 4.6

 New Orders.............................. 25,495 25,286 25,785 0.8 -1.9 0.2 21,300 29,847 20,132 21,300 20,132 5.8

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 1,960 1,836 1,930 6.8 -4.9 -4.8 1,379 2,632 1,450 1,379 1,450 -4.9

 New Orders.............................. 1,923 1,807 2,016 6.4 -10.4 -1.9 1,342 2,603 1,476 1,342 1,476 -9.1

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 3,476 3,889 3,780 -10.6 2.9 4.7 2,751 4,683 2,959 2,751 2,959 -7.0

 New Orders.............................. 3,811 3,477 4,208 9.6 -17.4 3.9 3,239 4,515 3,464 3,239 3,464 -6.5

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 10,032 9,990 9,917 0.4 0.7 -1.6 8,806 9,863 9,437 8,806 9,437 -6.7

 New Orders.............................. 10,359 10,249 9,958 1.1 2.9 3.4 9,651 10,077 9,784 9,651 9,784 -1.4

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 79,984 75,675 80,482 5.7 -6.0 2.4 66,506 76,069 64,349 66,506 64,349 3.4

 New Orders.............................. 79,749 71,527 81,403 11.5 -12.1 -0.5 65,865 88,228 60,863 65,865 60,863 8.2

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 54,138 52,527 52,186 3.1 0.7 1.1 46,971 48,152 43,187 46,971 43,187 8.8

 New Orders.............................. 53,764 52,204 52,107 3.0 0.2 1.0 46,868 48,579 43,743 46,868 43,743 7.1

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 14,173 10,846 16,032 30.7 -32.3 16.4 10,488 14,252 10,566 10,488 10,566 -0.7

 New Orders.............................. 14,483 9,395 13,251 54.2 -29.1 -23.3 9,998 25,249 7,073 9,998 7,073 41.4

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 4,435 4,833 4,656 -8.2 3.8 -14.5 3,302 5,831 3,250 3,302 3,250 1.6

 New Orders.............................. 4,959 2,684 8,087 84.8 -66.8 44.2 4,123 5,562 3,283 4,123 3,283 25.6

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 39,275 39,571 39,263 -0.7 0.8 0.9 34,671 38,047 34,494 34,671 34,494 0.5

 New Orders.............................. 39,313 39,532 39,270 -0.6 0.7 0.8 34,671 37,457 34,506 34,671 34,506 0.5

 Capital goods3

:

 Shipments................................ 87,828 85,392 89,680 2.9 -4.8 0.7 72,967 94,942 75,236 72,967 75,236 -3.0

 New Orders.............................. 89,384 74,263 89,995 20.4 -17.5 -2.3 75,607 96,245 72,927 75,607 72,927 3.7

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 78,263 75,344 79,871 3.9 -5.7 1.8 65,495 83,759 67,871 65,495 67,871 -3.5

 New Orders.............................. 79,164 65,126 75,818 21.6 -14.1 -7.9 67,267 83,033 67,578 67,267 67,578 -0.5

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 68,728 68,976 68,361 -0.4 0.9 -1.2 59,455 74,419 61,505 59,455 61,505 -3.3

 New Orders.......................... 69,016 66,407 68,930 3.9 -3.7 -0.9 62,340 70,506 65,184 62,340 65,184 -4.4

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 9,565 10,048 9,809 -4.8 2.4 -7.7 7,472 11,183 7,365 7,472 7,365 1.5

 New Orders.............................. 10,220 9,137 14,177 11.9 -35.6 45.6 8,340 13,212 5,349 8,340 5,349 55.9

r

 Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.

1

 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of 

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, 

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, 

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals.

 Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan 2016/

2016 2 2015 r 2015 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2016 2 2015 r 2015 2015

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Unfilled Orders4......................... 1,187,714 1,187,110 1,193,154 0.1 -0.5 0.1 1,195,543 1,190,827 1,216,286 -1.7

 Total Inventories....................... 396,255 396,639 395,663 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 395,409 386,082 399,017 -0.9

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 393,122 392,283 394,179 0.2 -0.5 0.1 390,547 385,190 399,019 -2.1

 Total Inventories....................... 264,241 265,254 265,660 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 263,815 258,759 270,675 -2.5

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................... 1,002,487 1,002,286 1,006,629 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 1,009,814 1,005,617 1,026,732 -1.6

 Total Inventories....................... 368,771 370,191 369,214 -0.4 0.3 -0.1 368,144 359,974 373,321 -1.4

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,187,714 1,187,110 1,193,154 0.1 -0.5 0.1 1,195,543 1,190,827 1,216,286 -1.7

 Total Inventories....................... 321,625 322,297 322,027 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 320,453 313,775 326,110 -1.7

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 34,627 34,580 34,632 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 35,211 34,031 37,246 -5.5

 Total Inventories....................... 33,823 34,500 34,971 -2.0 -1.3 -1.9 34,349 34,477 40,429 -15.0

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 81,605 81,639 81,718 0.0 -0.1 0.0 79,844 79,162 82,319 -3.0

 Total Inventories....................... 48,610 48,806 49,011 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 48,663 48,009 49,213 -1.1

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 108,693 108,899 110,993 -0.2 -1.9 -0.1 108,573 106,882 119,238 -8.9

 Total Inventories....................... 65,997 66,205 65,944 -0.3 0.4 0.0 65,404 63,611 66,223 -1.2

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 137,160 136,493 136,384 0.5 0.1 0.5 136,543 135,584 129,410 5.5

 Total Inventories....................... 44,698 44,824 44,823 -0.3 0.0 0.0 44,344 43,534 44,746 -0.9

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 2,616 2,653 2,682 -1.4 -1.1 3.3 2,616 2,653 2,498 4.7

 Total Inventories....................... 3,518 3,475 3,435 1.2 1.2 0.8 3,453 3,184 3,955 -12.7

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 40,569 40,234 40,646 0.8 -1.0 1.1 40,300 39,812 37,150 8.5

 Total Inventories....................... 5,138 5,147 5,373 -0.2 -4.2 -0.9 5,150 4,984 5,820 -11.5

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 22,510 22,183 21,924 1.5 1.2 0.2 22,484 21,639 22,906 -1.8

 Total Inventories....................... 16,235 16,265 16,315 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 16,141 15,590 16,499 -2.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 794,592 794,827 798,975 0.0 -0.5 0.1 804,996 805,637 817,267 -1.5

 Total Inventories....................... 132,014 131,385 130,003 0.5 1.1 -0.4 131,594 127,323 128,342 2.5

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 20,924 21,298 21,621 -1.8 -1.5 -0.4 21,669 21,772 22,586 -4.1

 Total Inventories....................... 36,082 36,338 35,709 -0.7 1.8 0.4 36,378 34,850 35,140 3.5

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 608,150 607,840 609,291 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 617,006 617,496 620,283 -0.5

 Total Inventories....................... 67,628 67,589 66,975 0.1 0.9 -0.3 67,136 65,483 66,180 1.4

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 67,295 66,771 68,920 0.8 -3.1 5.2 68,815 67,994 69,422 -0.9

 Total Inventories....................... 12,608 11,824 11,932 6.6 -0.9 0.5 12,563 11,647 12,846 -2.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,527 8,489 8,528 0.4 -0.5 0.1 7,892 7,892 7,900 -0.1

 Total Inventories....................... 54,878 54,654 54,596 0.4 0.1 0.5 54,914 53,538 53,565 2.5

 Capital goods3

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 895,003 893,447 904,576 0.2 -1.2 0.0 900,267 897,627 921,925 -2.3

 Total Inventories....................... 197,684 196,836 196,003 0.4 0.4 -0.4 195,686 190,261 196,159 -0.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 743,917 743,016 753,234 0.1 -1.4 -0.5 749,646 747,874 768,701 -2.5

 Total Inventories....................... 175,358 175,482 174,627 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 173,534 169,070 175,370 -1.0

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 244,193 243,905 246,474 0.1 -1.0 0.2 242,541 239,656 250,045 -3.0

 Total Inventories................... 119,065 119,368 119,124 -0.3 0.2 0.1 117,757 115,140 120,090 -1.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 151,086 150,431 151,342 0.4 -0.6 3.0 150,621 149,753 153,224 -1.7

 Total Inventories....................... 22,326 21,354 21,376 4.6 -0.1 -2.1 22,152 21,191 20,789 6.6

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4 

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, 

and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

This survey provides statistics on a calendar-month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new 

orders (net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory 

(at current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-inprocess, and finished goods). Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately 

4,800 reporting units that represent approximately 3,000 companies and provide an indication of monthto-month change for the Manufacturing Sector. These reporting units may be divisions of diversified 

large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, 

which are combined into 65 publication levels due to the small monthly panel size. The survey 

methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the 

M3 panel effectively represent the month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the 

category. 

The companies for which shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent 

approximately 61 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 

Economic Census, and these companies include almost two-thirds of the manufacturing companies with 

$500 million or more in shipments in the 2012 Economic Census. The companies for which shipments 

data are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 54 percent of the total value of 

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 Economic Census. Statistics based on the M3 

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing 

companies. The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are 

normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many 

sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is 

one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-to-month 

movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full 

report. Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any 

revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. 

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3. 

Benchmark notice 

Revised historical data from the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey will be 

issued on May 18, 2016. These revisions result from: 

 benchmarking the 2008-2011 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) shipments and inventories 

data to the revised 2012 Economic Census data on a 2007 North American Industry 

Classification System (NAICS) basis; 

 benchmarking the M3 shipments and inventories data to the 2014 ASM and revised 2013 ASM 

data, as well as the revised 2012 Economic Census data, on a 2012 NAICS basis, and ASM 

benchmarks for prior years on a 2007 NAICS basis; 

 incorporating the unfilled orders to shipments ratios obtained from the 2014/2013 Manufacturers’ 

Unfilled Orders (M3UFO) Survey by applying these ratios to the respective ASM shipments 

data, as well as incorporating revised unfilled orders to shipments ratios for prior years by 

applying them to the respective Census or ASM shipments data; 

 adjusting the new orders data to be consistent with the benchmarked shipments and unfilled 

orders data; 

 correcting monthly data for late receipts, reclassifications of reported data, and revisions to 

previously reported data; 

 updating the seasonally adjusted data based on the results of benchmarking and the recent annual 

review of the seasonal adjustment models. 

These revisions will span the seasonally adjusted data for January 1997 through March 2016 and the data 

not seasonally adjusted for January 2001 through March 2016. An updated Press Release will contain 

revised monthly tables for January 2016 through March 2016. Please call M3 staff on (301) 763-4832 

with any questions.