U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-05

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

June 25, 2003

CB-03-103

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

May 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. All figures exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in May, at the lowest level since June 2002, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.3

percent to $168.3 billion, the Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.4 percent April

decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Yearto-date, new orders for 2003 were 0.3 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $0.8 billion or 1.6 percent to $49.2 billion.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in May, at the lowest level since September 2001, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.3

percent to $169.0 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent April decrease. Year-to-date, shipments for 2003 were 1.6 percent below the

same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products had the largest decrease, $0.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $26.4 billion, due to computers and

related products, which decreased by $0.6 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in May, down seven of the past nine months, decreased $0.6 billion or

0.1 percent to $476.8 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent April decrease.

Machinery, down thirty of the past thirty-two months and at the lowest level since February 1994, had the largest decrease, $1.0

billion or 2.2 percent to $43.5 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in May, down twenty-seven of the past twenty-eight months, decreased $0.5

billion or 0.2 percent to $262.7 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent April decrease.

Computers and electronic products, down six consecutive months and at the lowest level since the current series began in January

1992, had the largest decrease, $0.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $39.7 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in May decreased $1.2 billion or 13.8 percent to $7.8 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.6 percent to $7.3 billion. Unfilled orders, at the highest level since August 1993, increased

$0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $130.7 billion. Inventories decreased $0.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $19.1 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in May decreased $0.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $55.4

billion. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $55.6 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to

$209.1 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $109.5 billion.

! REVISED APRIL DATA Revised seasonally adjusted April figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $319.4

billion (revised from $320.0 billion); shipments, $320.0 billion (revised from $320.6 billion); unfilled orders, $477.5 billion

(revised from $477.4 billion); and total inventories, $432.3 billion (revised from $432.6 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published July 2, 2003 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for June is

scheduled for July 25 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent May Apr Mar Apr - Mar - Feb - May Apr May Change

2003 2 2003 r 2003 May 2 Apr r Mar 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2003 2002 03/02

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Shipments................................ 168,960 169,467 171,385 -0.3 -1.1 0.4 173,481 167,102 182,576 845,689 859,411 -1.6

 New Orders.............................. 168,326 168,869 173,066 -0.3 -2.4 1.3 171,990 167,973 178,051 856,665 858,938 -0.3

 Excluding transportation:

4

 Shipments................................ 119,522 119,964 120,229 -0.4 -0.2 1.3 120,643 117,740 125,442 588,109 594,015 -1.0

 New Orders.............................. 119,157 118,898 120,656 0.2 -1.5 1.0 120,077 117,730 124,469 594,651 592,241 0.4

 Excluding defense:

4

 Shipments................................ 160,282 160,590 162,881 -0.2 -1.4 0.6 164,875 158,905 175,125 804,342 823,295 -2.3

 New Orders.............................. 159,108 158,561 161,272 0.3 -1.7 0.6 163,732 157,792 173,150 805,874 817,907 -1.5

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders4

 Shipments................................ 118,033 118,153 119,189 -0.1 -0.9 0.2 120,040 115,773 126,180 586,813 600,970 -2.4

 New Orders.............................. 117,399 117,555 120,870 -0.1 -2.7 1.5 118,549 116,644 121,655 597,789 600,497 -0.5

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 10,698 10,723 10,957 -0.2 -2.1 -0.3 11,204 11,080 12,062 55,465 56,344 -1.6

 New Orders.............................. 10,531 10,580 10,364 -0.5 2.1 -4.7 10,940 10,860 12,034 55,231 56,847 -2.8

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,203 20,163 20,552 0.2 -1.9 -0.3 20,685 20,202 22,005 100,965 103,689 -2.6

 New Orders.............................. 20,090 19,595 20,390 2.5 -3.9 0.7 21,014 19,794 22,656 100,881 104,394 -3.4

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 22,283 22,032 22,246 1.1 -1.0 1.6 23,227 22,800 24,373 111,442 113,928 -2.2

 New Orders.............................. 21,320 21,524 22,739 -0.9 -5.3 4.1 22,024 22,878 23,413 112,103 111,297 0.7

 Computers and electronic products:

4

 Shipments................................ 26,436 26,936 26,052 -1.9 3.4 2.2 24,890 23,779 24,884 124,385 124,942 -0.4

 New Orders.............................. 27,359 27,029 26,802 1.2 0.8 2.4 25,497 24,132 24,231 129,584 124,722 3.9

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 7,031 7,626 6,227 -7.8 22.5 -5.8 6,081 6,358 5,533 32,069 30,018 6.8

 New Orders.............................. 7,516 7,601 6,397 -1.1 18.8 -0.8 7,042 6,145 5,909 32,729 30,277 8.1

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 5,301 5,304 5,581 -0.1 -5.0 1.5 5,077 4,642 5,428 25,488 27,320 -6.7

 New Orders.............................. 5,785 6,104 6,391 -5.2 -4.5 0.3 5,385 5,687 5,386 30,400 27,832 9.2

 Semiconductors:5

 Shipments................................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 New Orders.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,541 8,601 8,644 -0.7 -0.5 0.9 8,669 8,400 9,345 42,261 44,324 -4.7

 New Orders.............................. 8,454 8,641 8,841 -2.2 -2.3 3.1 8,490 8,400 9,421 42,414 44,277 -4.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 49,438 49,503 51,156 -0.1 -3.2 -1.6 52,838 49,362 57,134 257,580 265,396 -2.9

 New Orders.............................. 49,169 49,971 52,410 -1.6 -4.7 2.1 51,913 50,243 53,582 262,014 266,697 -1.8

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 35,137 35,286 36,641 -0.4 -3.7 -1.0 38,614 36,414 42,956 188,880 194,739 -3.0

 New Orders.............................. 35,192 35,221 36,511 -0.1 -3.5 -1.6 38,419 36,186 42,826 188,997 195,274 -3.2

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,424 5,301 5,980 2.3 -11.4 -1.5 5,223 4,838 6,417 26,707 33,389 -20.0

 New Orders.............................. 4,455 4,487 2,980 -0.7 50.6 -16.9 4,248 4,192 5,411 21,382 27,042 -20.9

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,218 3,360 3,299 -4.2 1.8 1.5 3,140 2,899 2,818 15,109 12,995 16.3

 New Orders.............................. 4,311 4,601 5,823 -6.3 -21.0 137.8 4,502 4,707 1,780 21,365 18,437 15.9

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 31,361 31,509 31,778 -0.5 -0.8 2.1 31,968 31,479 32,773 153,591 150,788 1.9

 New Orders.............................. 31,403 31,529 31,520 -0.4 0.0 -0.8 32,112 31,666 32,714 154,438 150,704 2.5

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 62,978 63,304 62,903 -0.5 0.6 0.9 62,355 59,924 63,056 305,652 306,712 -0.3

 New Orders.............................. 63,109 64,862 66,705 -2.7 -2.8 5.2 61,897 62,522 59,439 318,322 300,315 6.0

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 55,641 55,851 55,723 -0.4 0.2 1.3 55,052 52,911 56,765 270,458 276,071 -2.0

 New Orders.............................. 55,352 55,860 55,842 -0.9 0.0 3.2 54,908 53,691 55,269 274,356 266,581 2.9

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 53,322 53,776 53,061 -0.8 1.3 1.7 52,604 51,099 53,324 258,872 258,463 0.2

 New Orders.......................... 53,801 54,094 55,557 -0.5 -2.6 4.8 53,228 52,188 52,634 267,128 256,874 4.0

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,337 7,453 7,180 -1.6 3.8 -1.5 7,303 7,013 6,291 35,194 30,641 14.9

 New Orders.............................. 7,757 9,002 10,863 -13.8 -17.1 16.4 6,989 8,831 4,170 43,966 33,734 30.3

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(01), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment

4 Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey

 the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

5 Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor

shipments, orders, or inventories.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change May Apr Mar Apr - Mar - Feb - May Apr May 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 May 2 Apr r Mar 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 476,818 477,452 478,035 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 483,381 484,872 501,485 -3.6

 Total Inventories...................... 262,666 263,173 263,501 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 264,461 263,837 268,295 -1.4

 Excluding transportation:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 229,097 229,462 230,528 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 232,483 233,049 246,553 -5.7

 Total Inventories...................... 188,945 189,604 190,393 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 190,667 190,572 196,338 -2.9

 Excluding defense:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 326,715 327,889 329,903 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 330,156 331,299 355,872 -7.2

 Total Inventories...................... 239,086 239,225 239,889 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 240,827 239,986 246,302 -2.2

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 476,818 477,452 478,035 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 483,381 484,872 501,485 -3.6

 Total Inventories...................... 213,069 213,546 213,932 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 214,438 213,971 218,766 -2.0

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 13,746 13,913 14,056 -1.2 -1.0 -4.0 14,071 14,335 16,606 -15.3

 Total Inventories...................... 18,756 18,931 19,039 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 18,557 18,775 17,991 3.1

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 36,323 36,436 37,004 -0.3 -1.5 -0.4 36,858 36,529 40,514 -9.0

 Total Inventories...................... 30,537 30,506 30,736 0.1 -0.7 -0.1 30,758 30,783 30,965 -0.7

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 43,529 44,492 45,000 -2.2 -1.1 1.1 44,275 45,478 50,783 -12.8

 Total Inventories...................... 43,644 43,673 43,629 -0.1 0.1 -1.1 43,939 43,985 45,853 -4.2

 Computers and electronic products:4

 Unfilled Orders........................ 110,947 110,024 109,931 0.8 0.1 0.7 112,596 111,989 113,731 -1.0

 Total Inventories...................... 39,664 40,081 40,524 -1.0 -1.1 -1.9 40,428 40,114 44,809 -9.8

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 8,019 7,534 7,559 6.4 -0.3 2.3 8,363 7,402 7,063 18.4

 Total Inventories...................... 6,727 6,674 6,888 0.8 -3.1 0.4 7,152 6,734 7,558 -5.4

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 41,701 41,217 40,417 1.2 2.0 2.0 42,582 42,274 42,765 -0.4

 Total Inventories...................... 7,925 7,991 8,130 -0.8 -1.7 -2.4 8,058 7,970 10,571 -23.8

 Semiconductors:5

 Unfilled Orders........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 14,342 14,429 14,389 -0.6 0.3 1.4 14,352 14,531 14,829 -3.2

 Total Inventories...................... 12,355 12,361 12,382 0.0 -0.2 0.0 12,698 12,670 13,444 -5.5

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 247,721 247,990 247,507 -0.1 0.2 0.5 250,898 251,823 254,932 -1.6

 Total Inventories...................... 73,721 73,569 73,108 0.2 0.6 -0.2 73,794 73,265 71,957 2.6

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 12,248 12,193 12,263 0.5 -0.6 -1.0 12,360 12,555 12,728 -2.9

 Total Inventories...................... 20,631 20,700 20,678 -0.3 0.1 -2.3 20,591 20,710 20,184 2.0

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 106,334 107,303 108,097 -0.9 -0.7 -2.7 106,665 107,640 116,996 -8.8

 Total Inventories...................... 30,040 29,700 29,315 1.1 1.3 -0.8 30,059 29,436 30,067 0.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 60,473 59,380 58,139 1.8 2.1 4.5 62,555 61,193 56,725 10.3

 Total Inventories...................... 11,729 11,784 11,626 -0.5 1.4 2.9 11,689 11,642 10,561 10.7

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders........................ 10,210 10,168 10,148 0.4 0.2 -2.5 10,331 10,187 10,090 2.4

 Total Inventories...................... 43,989 44,052 44,083 -0.1 -0.1 0.7 44,287 44,245 43,276 2.3

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders........................ 339,745 339,614 338,056 0.0 0.5 1.1 344,327 344,785 349,041 -1.4

 Total Inventories...................... 128,628 128,665 129,299 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 129,870 128,972 136,363 -4.8

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 209,060 209,349 209,340 -0.1 0.0 0.1 211,310 211,454 221,298 -4.5

 Total Inventories...................... 109,489 109,368 110,223 0.1 -0.8 -0.7 110,539 109,600 117,574 -6.0

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders................... 128,203 127,724 127,406 0.4 0.2 2.0 130,453 129,829 135,318 -3.6

 Total Inventories.................. 86,861 86,838 87,724 0.0 -1.0 -0.8 88,158 87,361 94,298 -6.5

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders........................ 130,685 130,265 128,716 0.3 1.2 2.9 133,017 133,331 127,743 4.1

 Total Inventories...................... 19,139 19,297 19,076 -0.8 1.2 0.9 19,331 19,372 18,789 2.9

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.