U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-10

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

November 26, 2003

CB-03-185

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

October 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in October, up five of the last six months, increased $5.9 billion or 3.3 percent to

$184.5 billion, the Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.1 percent September increase.

Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.3 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2003 were 1.6 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.8 billion or 5.5 percent to $54.2 billion.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in October, up five of the last six months, increased $1.0 billion or 0.6 percent to

$183.3 billion. This followed a 2.9 percent September increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2003 were 0.2 percent below the same

period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products, up five consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.0 billion or 2.8 percent to $36.6 billion, led

by semiconductors, which increased by $0.7 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in October, up eight of the last nine months, increased $7.5 billion or 1.5

percent to $499.5 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent September increase.

Computers and electronic products, up six consecutive months, had the largest increase, $3.9 billion or 3.0 percent to $132.0 billion, led

by communications equipment, which increased by $3.2 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in October increased $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $262.4 billion. This followed a

0.5 percent September decrease. October was up following nine consecutive monthly decreases. 

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $67.6 billion. This followed four consecutive monthly

decreases.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October increased $1.7 billion or 22.1 percent to $9.2 billion. 

Shipments decreased 0.6 percent to $7.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $134.9 billion. Inventories

increased $0.4 billion or 2.1 percent to $19.0 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in October increased $1.7 billion or 2.8 percent to $61.8 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $58.6 billion. Unfilled orders increased $3.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $222.3 billion. 

Inventories decreased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $105.7 billion.

! REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders,

$333.0 billion (revised from $331.1 billion); shipments, $336.7 billion (revised from $336.2 billion); unfilled orders, $492.0 billion

(revised from $490.8 billion); and total inventories, $438.1 billion (revised from $437.8 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published December 5, 2003 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for

November is scheduled for December 24 at 8:30 A.M. EST
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Change

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2003 2002 03/02

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 183,301 182,274 177,187 0.6 2.9 -2.5 191,932 197,281 185,688 1,781,474 1,785,307 -0.2

 New Orders 4

.............................. 184,533 178,589 174,912 3.3 2.1 -0.1 192,378 188,957 174,047 1,734,262 1,707,088 1.6

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 131,041 129,213 127,340 1.4 1.5 -1.0 134,621 140,279 128,350 1,265,848 1,258,258 0.6

 New Orders 4.............................. 130,380 127,267 123,664 2.4 2.9 0.7 134,328 134,528 121,123 1,219,477 1,189,513 2.5

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 174,208 172,853 168,026 0.8 2.9 -2.4 182,936 187,056 178,005 1,693,360 1,708,335 -0.9

 New Orders 4.............................. 173,351 169,508 163,178 2.3 3.9 -1.7 182,020 180,274 169,172 1,639,728 1,630,385 0.6

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 123,426 122,991 119,669 0.4 2.8 -3.1 127,473 132,511 125,275 1,205,192 1,226,448 -1.7

 New Orders 4.............................. 130,960 124,917 123,746 4.8 0.9 1.4 134,346 130,663 118,939 1,215,896 1,195,763 1.7

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 10,939 10,779 10,577 1.5 1.9 -2.3 11,604 11,041 12,137 110,627 115,464 -4.2

 New Orders.............................. 11,562 10,883 11,000 6.2 -1.1 1.1 11,968 10,729 11,609 110,863 114,305 -3.0

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,408 20,406 19,977 0.0 2.1 -4.3 21,821 21,371 22,500 205,947 212,636 -3.1

 New Orders.............................. 20,726 20,710 20,531 0.1 0.9 -0.8 21,943 21,377 22,098 206,016 211,178 -2.4

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 21,492 21,376 21,057 0.5 1.5 -1.0 21,354 22,086 21,121 211,018 215,110 -1.9

 New Orders.............................. 21,632 21,416 21,102 1.0 1.5 -0.4 21,548 21,787 20,736 209,732 205,914 1.9

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 36,554 35,548 35,343 2.8 0.6 0.6 36,084 41,581 31,812 337,449 320,722 5.2

 New Orders 4.............................. 34,126 32,800 30,663 4.0 7.0 1.9 34,236 36,471 25,431 290,318 264,553 9.7

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,434 8,046 7,976 4.8 0.9 -7.1 8,584 10,266 6,858 74,799 66,561 12.4

 New Orders.............................. 8,217 8,244 8,297 -0.3 -0.6 1.5 8,317 10,273 6,914 75,241 66,417 13.3 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,773 6,565 6,530 3.2 0.5 -0.5 6,192 7,798 5,421 61,092 64,810 -5.7

 New Orders.............................. 10,018 8,015 6,979 25.0 14.8 -2.2 9,985 8,704 5,496 69,972 60,543 15.6

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 6,302 5,611 6,352 12.3 -11.7 19.9 6,427 6,476 5,305 57,916 47,534 21.8

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,532 8,463 8,300 0.8 2.0 -2.9 8,571 9,528 8,556 83,801 86,273 -2.9

 New Orders.............................. 8,579 8,594 8,429 -0.2 2.0 1.0 8,802 9,324 8,642 84,037 85,943 -2.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 52,260 53,061 49,847 -1.5 6.4 -6.3 57,311 57,002 57,338 515,626 527,049 -2.2

 New Orders.............................. 54,153 51,322 51,248 5.5 0.1 -1.8 58,050 54,429 52,924 514,785 517,575 -0.5

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 37,696 38,054 35,653 -0.9 6.7 -6.5 43,276 40,367 43,837 373,028 384,805 -3.1

 New Orders.............................. 38,114 38,527 35,631 -1.1 8.1 -7.0 43,597 40,615 43,358 373,261 384,105 -2.8 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,467 5,637 5,332 -3.0 5.7 -9.7 4,902 6,216 5,512 54,439 62,883 -13.4

 New Orders.............................. 5,691 4,663 4,912 22.0 -5.1 -11.6 4,624 5,698 3,427 47,158 51,562 -8.5

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,392 3,515 3,413 -3.5 3.0 -1.0 3,375 3,858 2,779 32,446 28,445 14.1

 New Orders.............................. 3,900 3,668 3,537 6.3 3.7 10.7 3,131 3,292 1,736 35,698 32,709 9.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 33,116 32,641 32,086 1.5 1.7 0.5 35,187 34,672 32,224 317,006 308,053 2.9

 New Orders.............................. 33,755 32,864 31,939 2.7 2.9 0.9 35,831 34,840 32,607 318,511 307,620 3.5

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 66,508 66,376 64,267 0.2 3.3 -3.2 65,607 73,670 61,281 633,865 623,762 1.6

 New Orders.............................. 71,084 67,722 67,386 5.0 0.5 2.6 70,274 72,923 57,225 646,407 595,959 8.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 58,562 58,386 56,487 0.3 3.4 -2.8 57,720 65,157 54,770 558,654 558,789 0.0

 New Orders.............................. 61,836 60,146 57,229 2.8 5.1 -1.6 61,589 65,641 53,083 565,073 534,756 5.7

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 56,172 55,722 54,085 0.8 3.0 -2.2 55,779 62,357 52,192 534,342 526,875 1.4

 New Orders......................... 59,093 58,109 54,907 1.7 5.8 -0.2 59,797 63,012 51,975 546,163 512,724 6.5

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,946 7,990 7,780 -0.6 2.7 -5.7 7,887 8,513 6,511 75,211 64,973 15.8

 New Orders.............................. 9,248 7,576 10,157 22.1 -25.4 36.0 8,685 7,282 4,142 81,334 61,203 32.9

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 499,496 491,962 490,036 1.5 0.4 0.8 491,383 484,510 481,835 2.0

 Total Inventories....................... 262,361 261,739 262,949 0.2 -0.5 -0.6 263,382 260,601 272,118 -3.2

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 251,426 245,785 242,120 2.3 1.5 1.1 247,808 241,674 239,862 3.3

 Total Inventories....................... 194,774 194,510 195,496 0.1 -0.5 -0.7 194,733 192,890 204,436 -4.7

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 344,393 338,948 336,682 1.6 0.7 0.4 340,418 334,907 340,432 0.0

 Total Inventories....................... 238,921 238,779 240,115 0.1 -0.6 -0.6 239,688 237,397 250,931 -4.5

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 499,496 491,962 490,036 1.5 0.4 0.8 491,383 484,510 481,835 2.0

 Total Inventories....................... 205,247 204,834 205,891 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 206,283 204,185 214,501 -3.8

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,286 14,663 14,559 4.2 0.7 3.0 14,695 14,331 15,141 -2.9

 Total Inventories....................... 17,155 17,382 17,803 -1.3 -2.4 -1.0 17,126 17,374 18,744 -8.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 37,105 36,787 36,483 0.9 0.8 1.5 36,969 36,847 38,266 -3.4

 Total Inventories....................... 30,993 30,913 31,058 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 30,839 30,663 31,704 -2.7

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 41,585 41,445 41,405 0.3 0.1 0.1 41,134 40,940 44,316 -7.2

 Total Inventories....................... 41,417 41,396 41,485 0.1 -0.2 -1.0 41,517 41,006 43,382 -4.3

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 132,025 128,151 125,288 3.0 2.3 1.4 129,602 125,023 117,848 10.0

 Total Inventories....................... 47,148 46,950 46,949 0.4 0.0 -1.2 47,344 46,496 52,397 -9.6

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,704 8,921 8,723 -2.4 2.3 3.8 8,566 8,833 7,031 21.8

 Total Inventories....................... 6,086 6,173 6,192 -1.4 -0.3 1.7 6,107 6,145 6,471 -5.6 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 54,844 51,599 50,149 6.3 2.9 0.9 53,627 49,834 45,692 17.4

 Total Inventories....................... 10,941 11,042 10,951 -0.9 0.8 -1.9 10,965 11,007 13,561 -19.1

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,100 14,053 13,922 0.3 0.9 0.9 14,028 13,797 14,122 -0.7

 Total Inventories....................... 12,241 12,283 12,364 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 12,126 11,934 12,857 -5.7

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 248,070 246,177 247,916 0.8 -0.7 0.6 243,575 242,836 241,973 0.7

 Total Inventories....................... 67,587 67,229 67,453 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 68,649 67,711 67,682 1.4

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,937 12,519 12,046 3.3 3.9 -0.2 12,366 12,045 11,386 8.6

 Total Inventories....................... 19,959 20,010 20,366 -0.3 -1.7 0.4 20,176 20,266 21,003 -3.9 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 104,916 104,692 105,666 0.2 -0.9 -0.4 104,213 104,491 111,477 -6.5

 Total Inventories....................... 24,957 25,050 24,988 -0.4 0.2 -0.3 25,524 25,086 26,172 -2.5

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 61,080 60,572 60,419 0.8 0.3 0.2 59,216 59,460 55,268 7.1

 Total Inventories....................... 11,017 10,846 10,627 1.6 2.1 -2.3 11,190 10,971 9,811 14.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 11,325 10,686 10,463 6.0 2.1 -1.4 11,380 10,736 10,169 11.9

 Total Inventories....................... 45,820 45,586 45,837 0.5 -0.5 -0.4 45,781 45,417 45,352 0.9

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 357,143 352,567 351,221 1.3 0.4 0.9 351,253 346,586 336,798 4.3

 Total Inventories....................... 124,639 124,541 124,707 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 125,584 124,064 131,381 -4.4

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 222,293 219,019 217,259 1.5 0.8 0.3 219,821 215,952 214,698 2.4

 Total Inventories....................... 105,684 105,978 106,178 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 106,524 105,364 113,804 -6.4

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 141,861 138,940 136,553 2.1 1.7 0.6 140,092 136,074 130,791 7.1

 Total Inventories.................. 87,999 88,195 88,445 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 88,325 87,490 94,194 -6.2

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 134,850 133,548 133,962 1.0 -0.3 1.8 131,432 130,634 122,100 7.6

 Total Inventories....................... 18,955 18,563 18,529 2.1 0.2 -0.8 19,060 18,700 17,577 8.4

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.