U.S. Department of Commerce

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Official Business PERMIT No. G-58

Penalty for Private Use, $300

NOTICE

Revised historical data for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders will be
issued in mid-June. The revisions to the historical data are the result of:

e benchmarking the shipments and inventory data to the 1994-1995 Annual Survey
of Manufactures (ASM).

. adjusting new and unfilled orders to be consistent with the benchmarked shipments
and inventory data.

° correcting monthly data for late receipts, reclassification of reported data, and
revisions to previously reported data.

° updating the seasonal adjustment factors for all series.
The publication will include data from 1987-December 1996. An accompanying press

release will include the revised 1997 February - April data. Please call Kathy Menth on
(301) 457-4832 with questions.



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE. | sittin

= 2 HVS BUREAU OF THE
22 Yt WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 ‘CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT.
For Data - (301) 457-4673 April 29, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB9T-74
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-03

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
March 1997
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $5.3 billion or 3.0 percent to $171.5 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows increases of 0.8 percent in February and 3.8 percent
in January. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.6 percent, also following two consecutive monthly increases. Year to
date, new orders are 5.6 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since December, had the largest decrease, $1.8 billion or 5.9 percent
to $28.8 billion, mostly due to electronic components and communication equipment. This follows a 7.7 percent February increase.
Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased $1.7 billion or 4.3 percent to $37.5 billion, due to declines
in aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 7.3 percent February decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment,
down for the first month since November, decreased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $32.8 billion. This follows a 2.1 percent February
increase. Primary metals, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $15.7 billion, following
a 0.7 percent February decrease. Instruments and related products, down for the first month since September, also decreased.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in March, up for the third consecutive month, increased $1.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $174.9 billion,
following a 1.9 percent February increase. Year to date, shipments are 7.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 3.2 percent to $29.5 billion. This follows a 6.1
percent February increase and is the sixth increase in the last eight months. Industrial machinery and equipment, up three of the last
four months, increased $0.7 billion or 2.1 percent to $33.0 billion, following a 0.5 percent February increase. Transportation
equipment, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $40.1 billion, as an increase in aircraft and parts
more than offset decreases in motor vehicles and parts and railroad equipment. Primary metals, down for the first month since
September, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $15.5 billion, following a 0.7 percent February increase.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in March decreased $3.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $493.8 billion. This
follows a 0.6 percent February increase and is the first decline since August 1996.

Transportation equipment, decreased $2.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $251.8 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 0.3 percent
February decrease and five consecutive increases. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since December,
decreased $0.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $51.6 billion, following a 4.0 percent February increase. Industrial machinery and equipment,
down for the first month since December, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $73.1 billion, following a 1.2 percent February
increase. Primary metals, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $30.9 billion, following a 0.4
percent February increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in March decreased $0.9 billion or 16.8 percent to $4.5 billion, the
fourth consecutive monthly decline. Shipments, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.2 billion or 3.4 percent to $6.2
billion, following a 6.3 percent February increase. Unfilled orders, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $1.7 billion
or 1.6 percent to $107.7 billion, following a 0.9 percent February decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in March, down four of the last six months, decreased $2.1 billion
or 4.4 percent to $44.8 billion, following a 2.3 percent February increase. Shipments increased $1.9 billion or 4.3 percent to $46.0
billion. This follows a 2.3 percent February increase and is the fourth increase in the last five months. Unfilled orders, down for the
first month since December, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $254.9 billion, following a 1.1 percent February increase.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $1.1 billion or 2.6 percent to $39.5 billion, the first decline since December;
shipments increased $1.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $39.5 billion, the fourth increase in the last five months; and unfilled orders increased
$0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $99.0 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase.

@ REVISED FEBRUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $322.3
billion (revised from $321.5 billion); new orders, $325.0 billion (revised from $325.9 billion); unfilled orders, $521.8 billion (revised
from $523.6 billion); and total inventories, $441.7 billion (revised from $441.8 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS
Our internet address is http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published May 6, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May 28, 1997. This report is available

fan the daw af icone theanah the Renartmant Af Cammarnate antine Eannnmin Bulletin raed (A @ 1. 2909 409 207


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Mar, Feb. Jan. Feb. | Jan. | Dec.- Mar, Feb, Mar,
197% 197" 1997 || Mar? | Feb! Jan. 1997? 1997! 1996 | Mar.97/96
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments... . veces 174,896 | 173,629 | 170,313 40.7 188,491 | 174,391 | 172,628 +92
New orders mt sees} 171493 | 176.812 | 175370 “3.0 +08] 43:8 | 184'806 | 180,158 | 179.521 +3.0
Unfilled orders s: 4] 493°751 | 4977154 | 493,971 “07 06 497,727 | 501,322 | 475;368 +47
Excluding defense
Shipments --- {168,671 | 167,184 | 164,252 40.9 +18] +10] 181,879 | 167,932 | 166,092 +95
New orders... | | +s. | 166976 | 171380 | 169,169 26 413] +52 | 177,632 | 174523 | 167/850 45.8
Unfilled orders 386,034 | 387,729 | 383,533 -04 +14 +13 | 387212 | 3917459 | 366,129 +58
With, unfilled orders :
Shipments ......... . 143,746 | 142,176 | 138,239} #1. 42.8 0.0 | 155,267 | 140,774 | 142,215 +92
New orders : 1407343 | 145359 | 143,296 “35 414] +36 | 151/672 | 146541 | 149,108 +17
Primary metal:
Shipments. . : 15,511 15,659 15,557 09 +07] 42.6 16,116 16,131 +47
New orders. . . 15,683 15,782 15/892 -0.6 0.7 +51 16,866 17.009 +77
Unfilled orders 0022222200 30,895 30;723 | 30,600 40.6 +04) +11 32,006 | 31,856 +56
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . . 32,961 32.274 | 32,116 +21 40.5 “14 38,828 31,868 +53
New orders ° : 32,775 33,167 | 32:50 “12 +2) +09 | 37384 | 33,056 +58
Unfilled orders 2111! 73.128 | 73,314 72/421 -03 +12] 405 73101 74,545, +16
Electronic and other
electri al equipment : :
Ship 29517 | 28599 | 26,947 43.2 +61 29] 31,651 28,235 +121
New orders : : 28,809 | 30,605 | 28,419 5.9 477] +178 29138 27,062 477
Unfilled orders : 51381 52,289 | 50,283, “14 +40] +30 | 50,824 49/440 428
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 40,148 | 39,888 | 39,853 +07 40.1 +3.9 | 43,184 | 42,808 | 37,843 +141
New orders 122: isciss | 371535 39212 | 42,278 43 73) +15 | 42/921 42263 | 47/302 93
Unfilled orders << 2° |! 251,795 | 254:408 | 255,084 10 03 | +10 | 2541422 | 254,685 | 238:209 +68
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments .... esses] 52,219] 50,545 | 49,182 | 433 42.8 31 59ag0 | 48,893 54,744 +86
New orders on +. | 49327 | 52/302 | 52/020 37 +05] +02 | 57,796 51221 63,544 -9.0
Unfilled orders ©. 00 362,612 | 365,504 | 363,747 -08 405} +08 | 3651470 | 3671 4 350,707 +42
Nondefense :
Shipments... .... 45,994 | 44,100 | 43,121 +43 +23 33 42,434 | 48,208 49.6
New orders. |. 44810 | 46870 | _45;819 44 +23] +44 45;593 51873 -2.6
Unfilled orders’ | +2. | 234/895 | 256079 | 253/309 +05 +11 +H 257,251 | 241,468 45.6
Exgluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . 39,297 | 38,318 | 37,262 +26 428 34] 45340 | 36,839 | 42,767 +6.0
New orders. +} 39524] 40/590 | 37,870 -2.6 472 | 43.1 44,455 39500 | 41905 +6.1
Unfilled orders” Sill} 981964 | 98.737 | 96:465 +0.2 +24 | +016 | 991024 | 99909 | 98,624 +04
Defense :
Shipments... .. . 6,225 6,445 34 “1 6,536 +12
New orders ooo 4517 5,432 168] -124]  -23.0 4 11671 378
Unfilled orders ¢ 2222. - 107,717 | 109,425 -16 09] 0.1 | 110/515 109/239 H12

(NA) Nox available. * Revised

" Shipments and new orders are the tuts forthe perio and are wljusted tw trading-day and caleodat-mont) variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the pein and wre aot aajusted for trading-day or calendar-monsh variations

* sed on advance sample, Estates of manufacturers” hipment, inventories, and orders ate sujet w survey ero and cvson. One mat umpunent of rey err namsanping eto, which icles errs of nea
response and nonreponing, Si ‘servey panel is nota probability sample. estimates of sampling erroe cannot be calculated. Furter details on survey design, methvxlology, and data limitations are contained in our most revent anus
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(95), "Manofacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1995,"

“The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general industial machinery. computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, eletnical Wansmission and distibotion equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment
Complete airraft, missiles, and space vehwes. aireraft missles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and seatch and navigation equipment

‘Defense capital goods inciade * ordnance. communication equipment, aivraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank components, search and mavigution equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

‘Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1996- | Year ago Mar] Mar. 1996-| Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1996-

Mar, 1996 | 1992-1996 | Feb. 1997 | Mar. 1996 | 1992-1996] Feb. 1997| Mar. 1996] 1992-1996 | Feb. 1997

Durable goods ........ 04 04 02 12 0.5 04 02 01 OL

Primary metals 09 06 04 02 07 08 oa 04 05

Industrial machinery and equipment 03 10 05 oa 12 07 03 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 03 03 06 0.0 07 iw 1) 03 06

Transportation equipment 09 06 05 52 2 16 07 02 03

Nondefense capital goods « 02 09 0s 48 2.0 10 10 03 02

Defense capital goods . . . | 06 04 Li 10.1 36 51 09 03 oa

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t
ied.

for the months spe‘



Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

190 190
New Orders

180 F- -- --- 2-5 eee er ee ee eee ee eee -4 Shipments +1180

170 170

160 160

150 150

140 L 1 i 1 1 L it i a L L it L 140

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
Mar, 1995 - Mar. 1997

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

53

48

Pot tt te ee ee eee eee ee ee ee ee eee ee ee New Orders | 53
Shipments
Port ee ee ee eee eee ee Se +48

33

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar

33
Mar. 1995 - Mar. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.

© U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1997 417-366/40078