U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-10

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

November 24, 2004

CB-04-227

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

October 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $196.3 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.9 percent September increase. Excluding

transportation, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 11.2 percent above the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products, down following two consecutive increases, had the largest decrease, $2.1 billion or 5.7

percent to $34.9 billion. 

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in October increased $1.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $200.5 billion. This

followed a 1.1 percent September decrease. Year-to-date, shipments for 2004 were 10.4 percent above the same period a year

ago.

Machinery, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 4.6 percent to $26.5 billion. This was at the

highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.7 percent September increase. 

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in October, up fourteen of the last fifteen months, increased $3.0

billion or 0.6 percent to $543.2 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent September increase and is at the highest level since April

2001.

Computers and electronic products, up eight of the last nine months, had the largest increase, $2.1 billion or 1.5 percent to

$142.0 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series began in 1992 and followed a 3.7 percent September increase. 

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in October, up eleven consecutive months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.5

percent to $279.4 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent September increase.

Primary metals, up twelve consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.6 billion or 3.0 percent to $20.7 billion. Computers

and electronic products, up eight consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $49.5 billion. 

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October increased $2.0 billion or 18.5 percent to $12.7

billion. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 3.0 percent to $8.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased $4.4 billion or 3.0 percent to

$148.6 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $19.5 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in October decreased $2.2 billion or 3.3 percent to $64.8

billion. Shipments increased $1.9 billion or 3.0 percent to $66.2 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.4 billion or 0.6 percent to

$236.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $109.5 billion.

! REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries are: new

orders, $369.6 billion (revised from $368.3 billion); shipments, $371.6 billion (revised from $371.3 billion); unfilled orders,

$540.1 billion (revised from $539.3 billion); and total inventories, $462.7 billion (revised from $463.3 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published December 2, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for

November is scheduled for December 23 at 8:30 A.M. EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 200,469 199,178 201,398 0.6 -1.1 1.9 204,832 215,625 192,632 1,968,378 1,782,306 10.4

 New Orders 4

.............................. 196,317 197,181 195,435 -0.4 0.9 -0.5 198,872 208,654 193,408 1,929,220 1,735,410 11.2

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 147,322 145,452 146,726 1.3 -0.9 0.9 149,098 157,446 135,091 1,425,288 1,266,450 12.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 143,785 144,824 140,917 -0.7 2.8 2.9 145,122 153,333 134,923 1,385,013 1,220,190 13.5

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 190,729 189,766 191,519 0.5 -0.9 1.9 195,356 205,215 183,662 1,872,044 1,694,216 10.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 182,637 185,485 185,925 -1.5 -0.2 -0.6 186,499 197,626 183,189 1,829,843 1,641,014 11.5

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 137,752 136,157 137,288 1.2 -0.8 0.7 139,552 146,591 127,694 1,337,639 1,205,511 11.0

 New Orders 4.............................. 140,767 140,994 138,806 -0.2 1.6 -2.7 140,949 147,323 134,875 1,368,590 1,216,509 12.5

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 14,503 14,510 14,511 0.0 0.0 2.1 14,861 14,859 11,636 137,951 110,659 24.7

 New Orders.............................. 14,092 14,376 14,928 -2.0 -3.7 -0.6 13,708 14,342 12,200 140,626 111,095 26.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 23,034 23,210 23,162 -0.8 0.2 0.0 24,172 24,427 22,013 227,756 206,156 10.5

 New Orders.............................. 23,959 23,238 23,556 3.1 -1.3 2.2 24,815 23,427 22,338 234,606 206,426 13.7

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 26,462 25,306 24,885 4.6 1.7 -0.9 26,052 26,427 21,515 245,232 211,181 16.1

 New Orders.............................. 27,063 26,102 25,345 3.7 3.0 2.3 26,646 26,887 21,779 251,311 209,943 19.7

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 40,010 38,914 39,986 2.8 -2.7 1.6 39,282 45,072 35,956 380,914 337,422 12.9

 New Orders 4.............................. 34,922 37,026 32,584 -5.7 13.6 6.0 34,603 41,752 33,673 321,644 289,866 11.0

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 9,536 8,825 8,574 8.1 2.9 -0.8 9,895 10,963 8,612 84,792 74,878 13.2

 New Orders.............................. 8,783 9,789 8,331 -10.3 17.5 0.8 9,140 11,768 8,340 84,235 75,318 11.8 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 7,052 6,885 7,489 2.4 -8.1 6.7 6,472 7,795 6,118 67,540 61,018 10.7

 New Orders.............................. 10,312 9,555 7,062 7.9 35.3 7.0 10,281 10,590 9,619 72,538 69,624 4.2

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 7,167 6,834 7,481 4.9 -8.6 -0.5 7,357 7,703 6,405 70,109 57,894 21.1

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,968 8,921 9,197 0.5 -3.0 1.6 8,907 9,968 8,583 88,019 83,813 5.0

 New Orders.............................. 8,852 9,177 9,436 -3.5 -2.7 4.4 8,961 9,960 8,877 89,810 84,115 6.8

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 53,147 53,726 54,672 -1.1 -1.7 4.7 55,734 58,179 57,541 543,090 515,856 5.3

 New Orders.............................. 52,532 52,357 54,518 0.3 -4.0 -8.3 53,750 55,321 58,485 544,207 515,220 5.6

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 37,441 38,226 38,617 -2.1 -1.0 5.3 40,750 40,881 43,550 388,793 373,302 4.1

 New Orders.............................. 37,116 38,168 38,878 -2.8 -1.8 5.9 40,202 40,652 43,912 389,417 373,576 4.2 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 6,309 6,306 6,313 0.0 -0.1 6.9 5,767 6,994 4,904 58,458 54,441 7.4

 New Orders.............................. 5,537 5,557 6,706 -0.4 -17.1 -46.2 4,555 6,634 4,635 62,718 47,169 33.0

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,496 3,427 3,724 2.0 -8.0 5.1 3,392 3,924 3,375 36,453 32,446 12.3

 New Orders.............................. 3,256 2,408 2,779 35.2 -13.4 -7.6 2,593 2,141 3,131 28,928 35,698 -19.0

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 34,345 34,591 34,985 -0.7 -1.1 1.3 35,824 36,693 35,388 345,416 317,219 8.9

 New Orders.............................. 34,897 34,905 35,068 0.0 -0.5 2.1 36,389 36,965 36,056 347,016 318,745 8.9

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 74,486 72,342 72,997 3.0 -0.9 1.7 72,868 79,911 65,637 707,087 633,996 11.5

 New Orders.............................. 77,467 77,675 73,402 -0.3 5.8 -5.9 75,666 83,234 70,139 727,293 646,385 12.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 66,199 64,296 64,571 3.0 -0.4 1.8 64,740 71,233 57,776 624,804 558,809 11.8

 New Orders.............................. 64,790 66,976 65,015 -3.3 3.0 -7.0 63,998 73,354 61,593 639,148 565,189 13.1

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 63,582 61,692 61,960 3.1 -0.4 0.9 62,576 68,465 55,836 601,162 534,498 12.5

 New Orders......................... 62,653 64,969 61,730 -3.6 5.2 0.7 62,754 70,794 59,798 610,587 546,276 11.8

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,287 8,046 8,426 3.0 -4.5 1.3 8,128 8,678 7,861 82,283 75,187 9.4

 New Orders.............................. 12,677 10,699 8,387 18.5 27.6 3.1 11,668 9,880 8,546 88,145 81,196 8.6

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 543,162 540,147 535,310 0.6 0.9 0.3 533,367 531,970 491,677 8.5

 Total Inventories....................... 279,362 277,863 277,119 0.5 0.3 0.8 280,340 276,976 263,266 6.5

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 285,614 281,984 275,778 1.3 2.3 0.6 280,969 277,588 247,897 13.3

 Total Inventories....................... 210,784 209,318 208,064 0.7 0.6 1.2 210,961 208,069 194,622 8.4

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 377,050 377,975 375,422 -0.2 0.7 0.5 372,367 373,867 340,826 9.3

 Total Inventories....................... 255,127 253,704 253,217 0.6 0.2 1.0 255,916 252,713 239,604 6.8

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 543,162 540,147 535,310 0.6 0.9 0.3 533,367 531,970 491,677 8.5

 Total Inventories....................... 218,260 216,490 216,060 0.8 0.2 0.8 219,474 215,903 206,365 6.4

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 19,598 20,009 20,143 -2.1 -0.7 2.1 18,677 19,830 14,895 25.4

 Total Inventories....................... 20,663 20,059 19,643 3.0 2.1 3.0 20,736 20,089 17,124 21.1

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 45,750 44,825 44,797 2.1 0.1 0.9 44,871 44,228 37,170 20.7

 Total Inventories....................... 34,565 34,315 34,005 0.7 0.9 1.6 34,464 34,238 30,820 11.8

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 49,872 49,271 48,475 1.2 1.6 1.0 48,961 48,367 41,182 18.9

 Total Inventories....................... 44,962 44,922 44,688 0.1 0.5 0.8 45,131 44,633 41,599 8.5

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 141,997 139,918 134,972 1.5 3.7 0.1 139,995 137,317 129,155 8.4

 Total Inventories....................... 49,542 49,097 48,998 0.9 0.2 0.9 49,893 48,606 47,360 5.3

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,306 9,059 8,095 -8.3 11.9 -2.9 8,248 9,003 8,564 -3.7

 Total Inventories....................... 6,434 6,438 6,283 -0.1 2.5 1.3 6,511 6,513 6,128 6.3 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 55,317 52,057 49,387 6.3 5.4 -0.9 54,767 50,958 53,353 2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 10,991 10,794 10,883 1.8 -0.8 1.6 11,051 10,724 10,953 0.9

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,173 15,289 15,033 -0.8 1.7 1.6 15,206 15,152 14,094 7.9

 Total Inventories....................... 13,060 13,060 13,047 0.0 0.1 1.8 12,901 12,687 12,164 6.1

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 257,548 258,163 259,532 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 252,398 254,382 243,780 3.5

 Total Inventories....................... 68,578 68,545 69,055 0.0 -0.7 -0.3 69,379 68,907 68,644 1.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,954 15,279 15,337 -2.1 -0.4 1.7 14,244 14,792 12,407 14.8

 Total Inventories....................... 21,895 21,934 21,666 -0.2 1.2 0.9 21,876 22,095 20,154 8.5 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 109,852 110,624 111,373 -0.7 -0.7 0.4 109,331 110,543 104,222 4.9

 Total Inventories....................... 23,022 23,092 24,165 -0.3 -4.4 -1.1 23,639 23,221 25,525 -7.4

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 55,023 55,263 56,282 -0.4 -1.8 -1.7 53,245 54,044 59,216 -10.1

 Total Inventories....................... 11,813 11,729 11,514 0.7 1.9 -0.8 11,926 11,764 11,190 6.6

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,224 12,672 12,358 4.4 2.5 0.7 13,259 12,694 11,401 16.3

 Total Inventories....................... 47,992 47,865 47,683 0.3 0.4 0.8 47,836 47,816 45,555 5.0

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 384,608 381,627 376,294 0.8 1.4 0.1 378,003 375,205 351,100 7.7

 Total Inventories....................... 129,043 128,689 128,857 0.3 -0.1 0.3 130,044 128,288 125,624 3.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 235,960 237,369 234,689 -0.6 1.1 0.2 233,891 234,633 219,782 6.4

 Total Inventories....................... 109,522 109,233 109,575 0.3 -0.3 0.5 110,471 108,832 106,596 3.6

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 150,257 151,186 147,909 -0.6 2.2 -0.2 148,709 148,531 140,049 6.2

 Total Inventories.................. 92,979 92,511 91,960 0.5 0.6 0.7 93,410 91,949 88,397 5.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 148,648 144,258 141,605 3.0 1.9 0.0 144,112 140,572 131,318 9.7

 Total Inventories....................... 19,521 19,456 19,282 0.3 0.9 -0.5 19,573 19,456 19,028 2.9

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 4,000 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,000 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,000 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.

2005 Release Dates for M3 Survey

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M.

Dec 2004 1/27/05 2/3/05

Jan 2005 2/24/05 3/4/05

Feb 2005 3/24/05 3/31/05

Mar 2005 4/27/05 5/3/05

Apr 2005 5/25/05 6/2/05

May 2005 6/24/05 7/5/05

Jun 2005 7/27/05 8/2/05

Jul 2005 8/24/05 8/30/05

Aug 2005 9/28/05 10/4/05

Sep 2005 10/27/05 11/3/05

Oct 2005 11/29/05 12/6/05

Nov 2005 12/23/05