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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1993 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS‘ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report Regular Report

Report: Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1992 Fri., Jan. 29 Thurs., Feb. 4
January 1993 Wed., Feb. 24 Thurs., Mar. 4
February 1993 Wed., Mar. 24 Wed., Mar. 31
March 1993 Fri., Apr. 23 Fri., Apr. 30
April 1993 Wed., May 26 Fri., June 4
May 1993 Wed., June 23 Wed., June 30
June 1993 Wed., July 28 Thurs., Aug. 5
July 1993 Wed., Aug. 25 Thur., Sept. 2
August 1993 Fri., Sept. 24 Fri., Oct. 1
September 1993 Wed., Oct. 27 Thur., Nov. 4
October 1993 Wed., Nov. 24 Fri., Dec. 3
November 1993 Thur., Dec. 23

The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders press
release can be faxed to you on the day of issue at a cost of $120
per year. The fee is to cover the subscription service, wire
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to this service, or would like more information, please call
Sandy Sollinger at (301) 763-2604.



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | «kis.

= =" BUREAU OF THE
— WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth February 24, 1993
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB93-39
M3-1(93)-1

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
January 1993
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $2.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $132.8 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 9.6 percent increase in December and a 1.6
percent decrease in November. Excluding defense, new orders were down $3.3 billion or 2.6 percent. Excluding transportation
equipment, new orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.7 percent.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $3.0 billion or 8.2 Percent to $33.3 billion, primarily due
to aircraft and parts. This follows a 24.6 percent increase in December. Electronic and other electrical equipment was down
$0.6 billion or 3,2 percent to $18.9 billion, primarily due to communications equipment. Industrial machinery and equipment
had the largest increase, up $1.1 billion or 4.8 percent to $23.4 billion, following a 3.5 percent December increase. Primary
metals increased $0.8 billion or 7.0 percent to $12.6 billion, following a 9.5 percent increase in December.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in January decreased $3.0 billion or 2.2 percent to $131.0 billion, following a 4.6 percent
incréase in December. Excluding defense, shipments were down $2.8 billion or 2.2 percent. Excluding transportation
equipment, shipments decreased $1.7 billion or 1.8 percent. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest
decrease, down $1.4 billion or 7.5 percent to $17.9 billion, with declines in nearly all categories. Transportation equipment
decreased $1.2 billion or 3.4 percent to $35.2 billion, with decreases in all categories except shipbuilding and tanks. Industrial
machinery and equipment had the largest increase, up $0.4 billion or 1.7 percent to $23.0 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in January increased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $451.4 billion. This is the third
increase in the last four months. Excluding defense, unfilled orders were up $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent. Excluding
transportation equipment, unfilled orders increased $3.7 billion or 1.8 percent. The largest increase was in primary metals,
up $1.4 billion or 7.1 percent to $21.9 billion, following a 3.6 percent increase in December. Electronic and other electrical
equipment was up $1.0 billion or 2.3 percent to $43.9 billion, with over half the increase in electronic components, Instruments
and related products also had a large increase. The largest decrease was in transportation equipment, down $2.0 billion or
0.8 percent to $242.1 billion, as a decline in aircraft and parts more than offset an increase in shipbuilding and tanks.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in January decreased $3.2 billion or 9.3 percent to $30.8 billion. The
January decrease follows a 18.8 percent increase in December. Shipments were down $1.1 billion or 3.1 percent to $33.1
billion, following a 4.4 percent increase in December. Unfilled orders, down $2.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $217.0 billion, have
declined for ten consecutive months and are at the lowest level since November 1989, Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
increased 0,2 percent, shipments were down 1.5 percent, and unfilled orders increased 0.6 percent.

New orders for defense were up $1.0 billion or 12.1 percent to $8.9 billion, primarily due to shipbuilding and tanks.
The January increase follows a 17.5 percent increase in December. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 2.2 percent to $7.7
billion, following a 2.7 percent increase in December. Unfilled orders increased $1.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $128.7 billion,
following a revised 0.1 percent increase in December and eleven consecutive monthly declines,

‘This report presents advance information oa two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders, Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 4, 1993. The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for
March 24, 1993. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)
and through the Census Bureau's online information service-CENDATA. Purther information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from

Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2464) and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-763-2074) can provide


i

Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDER:
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Ja Dec Ne De N Oct. Ja Dec Jan change
. iov.| Dec; | Nov~ .- ; Jan.
1903 1992! 1993 | Jan? | Dec] Nov. 19932 1992 1995 | Jan.93/92
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments .. . we 131,034 133,993 128,105 2.2 +46 +24 114,166 131,805 104,302 95
New orders ©1221! 132\800 | 135,128 | 123271| 17] +96; “-1e] 1igi92| 133388 | 106539} 9 +115
Unfilled orders | <1! asiai7 | 449651 | 4483510} +04) +03) | 452151 | 447525 | 481361 62
Excluding defense :

Shipments . 123,349 126,132 120,447 +47 108,082 121,729 97,737 +10.6
New orders 123,895 , 116/512 +92 111'262 | 122549 , +114
Unfilled ord 322,690 | 322144 | 321/092 +03 322352 | 319172 | 338,235 47

With unfilled orders
Shipments - 104,784 | 107,545 26 34 +19] 90786] 110273} ase} +57
New orders |. | 106/550 | 108/680 20 5o| “30] 954d] 111850] BID | +83

Primary metals :
ent wa} 11,027 +08] +07/ +19] 10544 +18
2564 | 1741 +70| +495| +32) 12358 +210
21879 | — 201429 +71) 436) TT] 22%085 4.0
Industrial i 7 :

OTe Tunery and equipment 23,003 2.62: 417 3s} +51 19.237 +126
New orders 23,357 22,295 +48 3.5 +43 20.390 + ERT
Unfilled orders 51,040 50,686 +07 U6 OS SIS40 A?

Flectronic and other
Sonam een 17879] 19325] 18,194 62 s| 15.753 472
New orders. . 18,880, 19,504 18,215 TL 3.7 17,251 +122
Unfilled orders 43,880 42.879 42,700 04 0.0 43.002 +31

Praneportation equipment : 36.487 | 34,028 72| +48] 30,155 34,903} 25,928] +163
New orders. 36,24 29,095 +246] 0S] 388 34821 | 5054] $13.7
Unfilled orders cece a 244,044 244,286 01 2.0 242,751 244,419 268,719 9.7

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total 40,795 | 42,031} 40,391 29 4a] +2. 33244 | 49553| 31423] +58
39,725 | _41:920 | _35,356| 52] +186| 96] 33780] 49756] 32170) 431
Uatted enters 345167 | 346,747 | 346858] 03 00} 14] 347158] 347222] 378: 84
eer zo] 34170] 32,733 44] +31] 27160] 39477] 24858] +93
Shipments». - ; 33976 | 28597 +188| 97] 251650 | 38917 | 25'si0 | +05
ate eae 216/950 | 219'240 | 2197434 1] -18} 217/359 | 2isis69 | 2357253 “76
Excluding aircraft and parts : 27533| 27947| 26,27 1s sa] 42. 22,968 | 31,690] 20434] +124
Rhipments -..- 20. +- 27992} 27947) 26053] +03 73| +04) 24207) 31324) 21798] 4111
New orders, oon 2812 | 72;353| 72353] +06 od} “0 73221} 71982 | 76,027 37
Defense : 7,685 7861 7,658 22] +27] +06 6,084 | 10,076 6,565 73
Shipments 81905 7944 6759 | +i2a | +175) “91 7530 | 10,839 6660 | +132
New orders, - 128,727 | 127507} 127424] “¥TO] “¥OT] 0 129799 | 1285353} 143726 37

(NA) Not available, * Revised,

| Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for lading day and calendar-month variations, untilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted

to trading-day or calendar-month variations.
? Based on advance sample.

3 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction rinng and material handing equioment
metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmvssion arid
Gistribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and paris. ships and
lank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense capital goods inclutie

ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

j Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Tan, | Jan. 1992-| Year ago Tan. | Jan. 1992-| Year ago Tan. | Jan, 1992-

Jan. 1992 | 1988-1992] Dec. 1992] Jan. 1992| 1988-1992 | Dec. 1992] Jan. 1992] 1988-1992] Dec. 1992

Durable goods - 02 04 04 06 07 07 01 02 O1

Primary metals... 1. 0.0 03 02 06 17 09 03 07 03

Industrial machinery and equipment 05 07 07 04 14 09 03 06 ou
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . 02 04 06 02 13 08 01 02 1

Transportation equipment - oa 1 09 04 15 20 0.0 02 02

Nondefense capital goods . 03 08 08 1 07 17 00 03 02

Defense capital goods 03 08 16 12 29 67 on 02 03

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the ditferences, without

regard to sign, for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 8
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
150 150

New Orders
140 Shipments |~} 140
upmer
130 + 130
120 + 120
110 110
100 nl ! L L i \ : i i | 100
Jan Mar May = Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Jan. 1991 - Jan. 1993
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45
40 +
35 | 35
30 | 30
25 L i i 1 L | 1 1 i rl i L 25

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Jan. 1991 - Jan. 1993

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.