UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | etz..
MN —V. S WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mee CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 10:00 A.M. EST.
For Data - (301) 457-4673 November 26, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97- 1546
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
October 1997
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $185.9 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.1 percent September increase and is the first
decline since May. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.1 percent, also the frst decline since May. Year to date, new
orders are 6.5 percent above the same period a year ago.

Primary metals had the largest decrease, $1.1 billion or 6.7 percent to $15.6 billion, following a 4.9 percent September increase. This
is the second decrease in the last three months and the third this year. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down four of the last
five months, decreased $1.0 billion or 3.3 percent to $30.4 billion, led by a decrease in communication equipment. This follows a 7.8
percent September decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.7 billion or 1.9

rcent to $34.7 billion. This follows a 1.8 percent September increase. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months,
increased $2.5 billion or 5.9 percent to $45.0 billion, due to aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 1.3 percent
September decrease. Instruments and related products, up four of the last five months, also increased.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in October, down two of the last three months, decreased $1.3 billion or 0.7 percent to
$184.2 billion. This follows a 2.4 percent September increase and is the third decline this year. Year to date, shipments are 7.7 percent
above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since July, had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 2.2 percent to
$30.3 billion. This follows a 2.6 percent September increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, down two of the last three months,
decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $35.0 billion. This follows a 3.2 percent September increase. Primary metals, down two of
the last three months, decreased slightly to $15.5 billion, following a 1.1 percent September increase. Transportation equipment
decreased slightly to $43.3 billion, as decreases in aircraft and parts and railroad equipment more than offset an increase in motor
vehicles and parts. This follows a 1.2 percent September increase and is the second decrease in the last three months.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in October increased $1.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $503.6 billion. This
follows a 0.2 percent September increase and is the fifth increase in the last six months.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $250.9 billion, with all industries increasing except
shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 0.3 percent September decrease and is the second increase in the last three months. Electronic
and other electrical equipment, up five of the last six months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $55.9 billion. This follows a
0.8 percent September increase. Primary metals, up for the tenth consecutive month, increased 0.1 percent to $33.5 billion, following
a 3.5 percent September increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since June, decreased $0.3 billion
or 0.5 percent to $73.5 billion, following a 0.3 percent September increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.5 billion
or 9.3 percent to $4.9 billion, following a 2.7 percent September increase. Shipments, up for the second consecutive month, increased
$0.2 billion or 3.5 percent to $6.4 billion, following a 0.8 percent September increase. Unfilled orders, down for the tenth consecutive
month, decreased Ra billion or 1.4 percent to $104.7 billion, following a 0.7 percent September decrease.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in October, up for the sixth consecutive month, increased $0.4
billion or 0.9 percent to $49.2 billion, following a 1.6 percent September increase. Shipments, down two of the last three months,
decreased $1.3 billion or 2.6 percent to $47.2 billion. This follows a 3.4 percent September increase. Unfilled orders, up four of the
last five months, increased $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $254.8 billion, following a 0.1 percent September increase. Excluding aircraft
and parts, new orders decreased $1.8 billion or 4.2 percent to $40.7 billion, the second decrease in the last three months; shipments
decreased $0.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $40.7 billion, the second decrease in the last three months; and unfilled orders decreased slightly
to $100.5 billion, the first decrease since June.

© REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$335.1 billion (revised from $335.3 billion); new orders, $336.1 billion (revised from $336.5 billion); unfilled orders, $528.0 billion
(revised from $528.2 billion); and total inventories, $448.6 billion (revised from $449.1 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published December 5, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled for December 23, 1997 (at 10:00
A.M). This report is available on the day of issue through the Deparment of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
‘Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Oct, Sept. Aug Sept. Au Jul Oct, Sept. Oct, change
1997* i987 to et sept ‘Aug, 1997 igor 1996 | Oct.97/96
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments | a 184,232 | 185,536 | 181,131 07 -1.5 | 188,575 | 200,331 | 173,673 48.6
New ordet 185/920 | 186,428 | 186,195 -03 40.1] +25 | 192/817 | 196690 | 181/955 +6.0
Untitled orders 503,607 | $01,919 | 501,027] +03 410 | 500/931 | 496,689 | 486,442 43.0
Excluding defense :
: 177,854 | 179,373 | 175,015 08 42.5 -14 | 182,298 | 193,767 | 168,086 48.5
New orders 180975 | 180,976 | 180,888 0.0 00} +30 | 188319 | 191:285 | 177,093 +63
Unfilled orde 398/903 | 395,782 | 394179 | +0.8 +04] 415 | 398734 | 392,713 | 381,510 445
With unfilled order
Shipments... 150,711 | 152,186 | 148,026 0] 428 -10 | 152,276 | 165,664 | 139,235 49.4
‘New orders 152/399 | 153,078 | 153,090 “04 010} +39 | 156/518 | 162}023 | 147/517 46.1
15,545 15,560 | 15,392 0.1 +11 11 15,883 15,992 14,900
15,585 16,705 15/919 67] +49 211 15;592 | 16,534 14288 49.1
33,465 | 33,425 | 32;280 | +0.1 43.5 17] 32173 | 32;464 | 28,296 | +13.7
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments. 34,996 | 35,124 | 34,042 04 33,821 | 38,941 | 30,728 | +101
New orders 34656 | 35,329 | 34,704 19 +18 1 4457 | 38,941 | 31,728 +8.6
Unfilled orders’: 73,469 | 73809 | 73, -05 73,431 72795 | 72,826 +08
Electronic and other
electrical equipment : :
Shipments 30,344 | 31,012] 30,214 22 426] 429 | 30,474] 34,815 | 27,781 49.7
30415 | 31463 | 34,123 33 8] +294] 33,423 | 32\854 | 33,545 0.4
Unled orders 55,853 | 55,782 | 55/331 +01 476 | 37206 | 54257 | 54,158 +56
‘Transportation equipment : :
Shipments 43,269 | 43,289 | 42,773 oo] +12 27] 45352) 45.233 1,22 +10.0
orders 5016 | 42,498 | 43,038. | +5.9 13] 43.1 | 46,668 | 43781 | 43,457 4
Uebel crders’ 22. 250,869 | 249,122 | 249/913 | +0.7 03 | +01 | 248,588 | 247,272 | 248,068 40.2
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments 53,610 | 54,656 | $3,013 “19 +31 26 | 51,032 | 60,980 | 45,869 | +113
orders’ 345128 | 5419 33/294 -0.1 +17 02 | 52,081 597692 | $0,424 433
Uaniled orders 59,535 | 359/017 | 359476 | 40.1 O1 |  +0.1 | 356912 | 355,863 | 355/585 +04
Nondefense :
Shipments 47,232 | 48,493 | 46,897 26) +34 24 | 44,755 | $4,416 | 40,282 | +111
49'183 | 48,745 | 47987 | +09] +16] +12 | 47583 | 54,287 | 45,562 +44
United orders 254,831 | 252,880 | 252,628 | +0.8 40.1] +04 | 254;715 | 251,887 | 250,653 +16
Excluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments . 40,739 | 41,239 | 39,982 +12 -12 | 38,967 | 46,645 | 35,142 | +109
New orders : 40,716 | 42'495 | 40,110 42) +59 48 | 39/821 | 47,520 | 37,027 475
Unfilled orde 100,496 | 100/519 | 99,263 00 +0.1 | 100380 | 99,526 | 96,469 +41
Defense :
Shipments... 6378 6,163 6116 | 435] +08 36 6,277 $564 5,587
New orders“. 2). 47945 5,452 3 93 427 | -112 4,498 405 47862
Untitled orders’ 104,71 106,137 | 106,848 a 07 <b | 102197 | 103'976 | 104982

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

"Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day ox calendat-month variations
2 Buel a strane sample sins of mamfacte’ shipments, ests, an ore esto sey vex ant evo Ons mal component fee ero mms eo which inchudes errors of coverage,

response and nonreporting. Since the survey pane! is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent anna
emma podicsion, Curren lafstial Repos: M3160), “Manufacuren’ Shipments, Invenocs, an Ord 19871996."
The Copal ord atin che Nondeese imac and set, am engines od ube, ea engines, ‘mining and material handling king py. special industr
inery, general heating und service inky machinery, eet! and .
Teepe iE mass and spice eines, cal music, und Space WIC enghes tnd put se and Tank compen, ralkcadeqipmee and seach an savigaon equipmen.

Teese cnhal poodsiciodeTM: erdmance” communication tqupment, aera, msics, spac vehele, and pars, ai tanks and tank componeh, search ahd navigaion espe

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Oat] Oct. 1996-] Year ago Oat] Oct. 1996-| Year ago Oat, ] Oct. 1996-

Oct. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Sept. 1997 | Oct. 1996} 1992-1996 | Sept. 1997} Oct. 1996 1992-1996 | Sept. 1997

Durable goods .. . 0.0 03 02 0.4 0.5 04 0.1 Ol 0.1

Primary metals . Item. ol 03 03 12 10 08 09 05 04

Industrial machinery and equipment . . . 0.0 04 0.5 0.6 1.0 08 02 04 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . . . 02 08 06 04 15 Ll 03 04 0.6

Transportation equipment. | ol 04 04 re 08 14 02 Ol 02

Nondefense capital goods... 02 02 06 02 08 06 01 02 02

Defense capital gc 0.2 10 10 10.4 4.6 5.3 0.5 0.2 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
205 205

New Orders
195 F--------- 2-2 - ee ee ee ee ee ee -- --- 4 Shipments |-] 195
185 185
175 175
165 ia SF 165
TS
155 i L 1 L 1 L i L 1 L 1 1 L 155
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Oct. 1995 - Oct. 1997
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
58 58

New Orders

53 - ~~ 5 eee eee Shipments |-1 53

38

i nl n L L n n L n L

n n Lj 38

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct

Oct. 1995 - Oct. 1997

Note: Al

I Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.