UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERGE | sittiitsin
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mONCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela May 24, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95-98
M3-1(95)-4

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE Goops MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
ril 1995
(All figures in text below are 4 seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $6.5 billion or 4.0 percent to $156.5 billion, the Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This is the third consecutive monthly decline. Year to date, new orders are 10.0
percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $3.7 billion or 9.3 percent to $35.8 billion, due to motor vehicles and
arts and aircraft and aircraft parts. This follows a 2.9 Percent March decrease and is the third decline in the last four months.
Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since December, decreased $1.3 billion or 4.2 percent to $30.5 billion;

declines were widespread. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.9 billion or 3.4 percent to $25.7 billion, mostly
due to communication equipment. This follows a 7.3 percent March increase and is the second decline in the last nine months.
Primary metals decreased $0.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $14.9 billion, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Instruments and related
products had the largest increase.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in April decreased $3.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $158.3 billion, the first decline since October
1994. Year to date, Shipments are 9.7 percent above the same period last year. Transportation equipment, down for the third
consecutive month, had the largest decline $1.6 billion or 4.1 percent to $38.3 billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment
decreased $0.4 billion or 1.6 percent to $24.7 billion. This follows a 2.7 percent March increase and is the third decline in the last
four months. Primary metals decreased $0.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $15.0 billion. This follows a 1.0 percent March increase and
is the second decline in the last fifteen months. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $30.3
billion, following a 0.8 percent March increase. This is the first decline since November 1994. All other major industry groups also
declined.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in April decreased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $436.6 billion. This follows a 0.3 percent
March increase and is the first decline since August 1994. Transportation equipment had the largest decline $2.5 billion or 1.2 percent
to $200.1 billion, following a 0.2 percent March decline. Since reaching a peak in March 1991, unfilled orders of transportation
equipment have declined nearly every month. Primary metals declined $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $29.3 billion. This ‘billows a
0.5 percent decline and fifteen consecutive monthly increases. Stone, Clay and glass products and instruments and related products
also declined. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.0 billion or 1.9 percent to $51.4 billion, the eighth consecutive
monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $71.9 billion. This follows a 2.1
percent March increase and is the twenty-first increase in the last twenty-two months.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders decreased $1.8 billion or 24.6 Percent to $5.4 billion, mostly due to aircraft and aircraft parts. This
follows increases in March of 4.4 percent and in February of 11.2 percent. Shipments were down $0.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $6.6
billion, following a slight increase in March. Unfilled orders decreased $1.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $111.5 billion, following 0.5
percent and 0.2 percent increases in March and February respectively.

Nondefense - New orders decreased $2.2 billion or 5.2 percent to $40.4 billion, the first decline since December, Shipments
increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $41.6 billion, the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Unfilled orders decreased $1.1 billion
or 0.6 percent to $203.4 billion, the first decline since December and the second in the last eight months. Excluding aircraft and parts,
new orders decreased $1.9 billion or 4.9 percent to $36.4 billion, the second decrease in the last three months; shipments decreased
$0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $36.2 billion, the first decline since July 1994; unfilled orders increased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to
$97.0 billion, the twenty-third consecutive monthly increase.

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 1, 1995. ‘The advance report on durable goods for May is scheduled for June 23, 1995. This report is available
‘on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's online information
service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services. Inc (1-800-324-7564) and CamnnServe


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Apt Mar, Feb. | Mar; | Feb. | Jan- Apt Mar, Ape
1995 1995° 1995 | Apr? | Mar’ | — Feb 1995 1995" 1994 | Apr.95/94
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments. 158,256 | 161,582 | 161,206 241] +02] +01 | 157,079 | 174,202 | 147,235 +67
New orders 156,542 | 163087 | 163/338 “4.0 0.2} 07 | 156,290 | 176/498 | 1487187 $5.5
Unfilled orders 436,626 | 438,340 | 436,865 04] +03} +05 | 441310 | 442,099 | 427,307 +32
Excluding defense :
Shipments ....... 151,674 | 134,937 | 134,564 2 +02] +02] 150,975 | 167,192 | 140,764 +7,
New orders 2720022002000! 151138 | 1351887 | 156,473 30 04] 12 | 151881 | 167/564 | 143,003, 46.2
Unfilled orders’ | Si] 32si75 | 325;711 | 324:761 02] +03] +06 | 328576 | 327670 | 313,413 +4
With unfilled orders:
hipments 126,797 | 128,564 | 127, 14] +06] +02 | 123,491 | 138,707 | 114,154 48.2
Rew orders 125,083 ] 130,039 | 129/981 38 00}  -0.8 } 122,702 | 141/003 | 115;106 466
Primary metals
Shipments 14.985 | 15,301 15,152 2 +10 15,286 | 16,123 | 12,594] #214
New orders | 14866 | 15144 | 15,232 “18 06| -22] 14816] 16.873 | 12:715. | +165
Unfilled orders’. a 29299 | 29,418 | 297575 - “05 30,599 | 31,069 | 257516 | +19.9
Industrial machinery and equipment:
ipments - ++} 30,291 | 30,370 | 30,131 03 0.8 29,266 | 35,219 | 25,836 | +133
New orders | 30510 | 31/832 | 31.274 42] +18 29368 | 35:739 | 27/380 +73
Unfilled order 71,906 | 71,687 | 70,225 03 717854 | 71,752 | 573885 | 424.1
Flectronic and other
equipment : :
24,736 | 25,146 | 24.491 + 05 | 23,822 | 26,568 | 21,225] +108
orders 2571 26610 | 24,799 34] +73 245 | 25901 | 277150 | 23,293 | +116
Untied orders’ 51/380 | 50402 | 48'938 9} + +06 | 52'789 | 50/320 | 48151 +9'6
Transportation equipment :
Shipments. . 38,290 | 39.926 | 40,171 41 06 J 43,438 | 39,739 0.0
New orders 357781 | 39,458 | 40,650 93 29) 42: 37139 | 44351 | 37,631 13
Uniitled orders 200067 | 202,576 | 203,044 112 702] 402 | 201616 } 204,234 | 211,119 “45
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments... . 48,143 | 48,071 | 47,596 | +0.1 45,337 | $3,935 | 40,572 | +117
New orders. | 5/820 | 49,815 | 48°20 80 | +18] +20 | 42557 | 36160 | _ 39,302 +83
Unfilled orders 314/805 | 317128 | 315/384 07 316,209 | 318,989 | 314/425 406
Nondefense :
Shipments 41561 | 41,426 | 40,954 12] 42.7] 39,233 | 46.925] 34901] +150
New orders 40,416 ¥ 42.055, 32] 414] +406] 38148} 47.226] 34118] +118
Unfiled orders’: 203,354 | 204,499 | 203,280 0. 06 | +05 | 203,475 | 204560 | 200,031 +17
Exgluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments 36,196 | 36379 | 35,759 17 33,977 | 41,262 | 29.650 | +146
New orders 22! 36393 | 38,258 | 36,855 49] 438) -15 | 34234] 42223 | 31373 49.1
Unfilled orders! 977035 | 96838 | 94.959 | +02] +20 2] 975156 | 967899 | 81834 | +187
Defense :
Shipments. 6,582 6,645 6,642 09 oo} 19 6,104 7,010 6471 “57
New orders 5,404 7170 6865 | -246] +44] +112 47409 81934 5,184 -149
Unfilled orders’! uiiast | 112629 | 112,104 “10 | +05] +02 | 112;734 | 1147429 | 114/394 “15

(NA) Not available. Revised

" Shipments and new orders are the ttals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-momh variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and ate not adjusted for rading-day or calendar-month variations

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, iavenoies, and orders are subject to survey ert and revision. One major component of survey eror is nonsampling error, which inches errors of coverage,
response and nonteporting. Since the survey panel is not probably sample, estimates of sampling ercor cannot he calculated, Furter details survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual
tenchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), "Manufactures" Shipments, Inventories, and Oxdes: 1982-1992,"
"The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accesories, steam engines and turbines, intemal combustion engines, contraction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
computer and office ret heating aa service industry machinery, electrical ansmission and distribution equipment, elecrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
Complete sitraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aireraft mistiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment
Defense capital goods include” ordnance, ‘communication equipment, avraft, mises, space vehicles, and pans, ships, tanks and tak components, search and navigation eqipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago ‘Apr. | Apr. 1994- | Year ago ‘Apr | Apr. 1994-| Year ago ‘Apr. | Apr. 1994-

Apr. 1994 | 1990-1994 | Mar. 1995 | Apr. 1994| 1990-1994 | Mar. 1995] Apr. 1994| 1990-1994 | Mar. 1995

Durable goods . . 09 09 07 Od 07 13 On 02

Primary metals 04 06 04 0.0 07 08 1.0 03

Industrial machinery and 02 04 07 34 54 25 0.0 0.0
Electronic and other

electrical equipment ............ 03 06 07 04 02 03 0.0 0.0

Transportation equipment <2)... 2.2 05 03 07 07 03 04 0.0 0.0

Nondefense capital goods . Ol 10 09 0.1 0.1 04 0.0 0.0

Defense capital 20% 19 12 Ll 0.0 0.0 Ou 0.0 0.0

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders

VIB Fo - eee eee eee eee —— 4.175
Shipments

165 165

155 155

145 145

135 135

125 1 L L L L 1 L iT L 1 1 1 il 125

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb = Apr
Apr. 1993 - Apr. 1995
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
49F---- 0 tree rere eee -] 49
New Orders
aa[----------------------------------- Shipments |] 44

39

34

29

n n L L n L L lL i L i L 1

29
Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb = Apr

Apr. 1993 - Apr. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.