= = ECONOMICS
NITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

u
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
= BUREAU OF THE
=— WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 October 27, 1999
For Questions - Frances Porter or Lee Wentela CB99-210
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4832

M3-1(99)-09

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
September 1999
(Alll figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $2.7 billion or 1.3 percent to
$204.9 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.0 percent August
increase and is the first decrease since April. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.5 percent. Year-to-date,
new orders are 7.0 percent above the same period a year ago; new orders for the third quarter are 5.0 percent above the
second quarter.

Transportation equipment, led by aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts, had the largest decrease, $1.9 billion or 3.9

ercent to $47.1 billion. This is the first decrease since April. Primary metals decreased $0.1 billion or 0.8 percent to
S155 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $39.6 billion. Electronic and
other electrical equipment, up four consecutive months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $38.7 billion.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in September decreased $3.9 billion or 1.9 percent to $202.1 billion, following
a 1.4 percent August increase. This is the first decrease since April. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.4 percent above the
same period a year ago; shipments for the third quarter are 2.3 percent above the second quarter.

Transportation equipment, led by aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts, had the largest decrease, $2.5 billion or 4.9
percent to $48.5 billion. This is the largest decrease since June 1998. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.8
billion or 2.0 percent to $38.2 billion. This is the largest decrease since August 1998. Electronic and other electrical
equipment decreased $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $35.2 billion. Primary metals, up five consecutive months, increased
$0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $15.3 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in September increased $2.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $500.5
billion, following a 0.3 percent August increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up ten consecutive months, had
the largest increase, $3.5 billion or 4.9 percent to $75.5 billion. This is the largest increase since August 1997. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up nine of the last ten months, increased $1.4 billion or 1.7 percent to $80.8 billion. Primary
metals, up eight consecutive months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $32.2 billion. Transportation equipment, down
fifteen of the last seventeen months, decreased $1.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $226.6 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in September increased $0.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $5.0
billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.9 percent to $6.3 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.4 billion or 1.5
percent to $90.9 billion. This is the sixth consecutive decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in September decreased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to
$56.7 billion. Shipments decreased $2.7 billion or 4.6 percent to $55.0 billion. This is the largest decrease since January
1996. Unfilled orders, up for the first time since February, increased $1.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $252.4 billion.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.5 billion or 3.0 percent to $49.6 billion; shipments decreased $0.5
billion or 1.1 percent to $47.7 billion; and unfilled orders, up for the first time since April, increased $1.8 billion or 1.7
percent to $111.6 billion.

@ REVISED AUGUST DATA Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$361.8 billion (revised from $362.3 billion); new orders, $364.3 billion (revised from $364.7 billion); unfilled orders,
$523.1 billion (unrevised from $523.1 billion); and total inventories, $464.4 billion (revised from $464.6 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published November 3, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled for November 23,
1999 at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Sept, Aug. Jul Aug; July- | June- Sept, Au Sept
19953 1995" 199 Sept? | Aug” July 1999? 1995" 1998 |Sept.99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments . 202,141 206,033 203,268 “19 +14 +11 218,946 203,665 209,036 +4.7
New orders 2.0.0... eee 204,891 207,619 205,532 -13 +10 +43 216,813 204,413 205,297 $5.6
Unfilled orders 500.488 | 497,738 | 496.152 +06 03 +05 | 496.211 | 498344 | S017112 “10
Excluding defense :
Shipments ...... : 195.795 | 199,561 | 196,684 “19 +15 +1.0 | 212,230 | 197,447 | 201,943 +5.1
New orders oe 199,905 202,702 199,056 -14 +18 43.7 211,859 200,880 197,768 +71
Unfilled orders 409,605 405,495 402,354 +10 +08 +0.6 406,954 407,325 405,670 +03
With unfilled orders :
Shipments = 165,645 | 169,193 | 166,506 2.1 16 +1.6 | 180,625 | 165,975 | 173,973 3.8
New orders : 168,395 | 170,779 | 168,770 4 12 45.5 78,492 | 166,723 | 170,234 +49
Primary metals :
Shipments a 15,303 15,201 14,903 +0.7 +20 1s 15,847 15,298 15,402
New orders... 15,527 15,659 15,730 0.8 0.5 +3.4 15,327 15,558 13,789
Unfilled orders se] 32178 31.954 31,496 +0.7 +15 427 31,284 31,804 29,662
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 38,231 38,998 39,434 -2.0 “Ld 45.7 42,473 36421 40,690 +44
New orders. 39,589 39,426 40,257 +04 2.1 +10.5 43,894 36,772 43,032 +2.0
Unfilled orders 30,845 79,487 79,059 +17 +05 +1 80,290 78/869 74,847 +73
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments wees 35,160 35,323 35,373 -0.5 0.1 +3, 39,797 34,226 36,667 +85
New orders vs. | 38,693 38,553, 37.976 +04 +15 +80 40/396 37,869 34517 +170
Unfilled orders : 75511 71978 68.748 +4 47 + 74.269 73.670 37546 +2911
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 48,543, 51,029 48,816 4.9 +45 -19 $1,375 $1,109 49,441 43.9
New orders”. : 47,059 48/958 47.235 3.9 +36 42) agian 48206 47,885 432
Unfilled orders... . sees 226,609 228,093 230,164 0.7 0.9 0.7 225,338 227,302 250,126 -
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments .. . 64,120 62,679 43 42.3 +32 68,560 60,122 67,036
New orders 61,724 61,506 0.0 +04 +95 68.421 56,482 67,591
Unfilled orders - 3421937 | 345,333 +01 -0.7 -0.3 | 341,056 | 341,195 | 361,342
Nondefense :
Shipments 46 42.8 43.0 61,844 59,943
New orders -0.2 43.2 +8.0 63.467 60,062
Unfilled orders: 40.7 03 0.4 | 251799 265/900
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments oe . 47,732 48,277 48,774 “Lt -10 +5.0 54,145 45,110 50,929 +63
New orders 49/580 487128 48,763 43.0 -13 +95 35,901 44/347 53,569 +44
Unfilled orders... 111595 | 109,747 | 109/896 417 01 0:0 | 110:985 | 109229 | 107,217 43.5
Defense :
Shipments see + 6,346 6,472 6,584 -19 -1.7 +49 6,716 6,218 7,093 -5.3
New orders" | | : 4,986 4.917 6,476 +14] 241] 4243 4.954 3,533 7,529 “34.2
Unfilled orders 002. 90:83 92:243, 93,798 “1s “17 “0.1 89,257 91,019 951442 ~6.5

(NA) Not available. * Revised

* Shipments and new orders ate the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders ure as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calenar-month variations

2 Based om advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject (0 survey error and revision, One major eomponent i survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage
response and aovepoting. Since the survey panel is not a prohabihity sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are ctained in our mst recent annual
heachmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96). "Manufacturers" Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996,

"The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, relrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical wansmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment
Complete uiferatt, missiles, and space Vehicles, airraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, ax search and navigation equipment.

‘Defense capital goods include = ordnance, communication equipment, aieratt, missles, spave vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation eqaipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders. Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Sept. [Sept 1998-] Year ago Sept. | Sept 1998-| Year ago Sept. [Sept. 1998-

Sept. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Aug. 1999 | Sept. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Aug. 1999] Sept. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Aug. 1999

Durable goods 0.7 03 08 04 03 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.5

Primary metals . 0.6 03 Ll 08 Ll 25 Ol 04 09

Industrial machinery and equipment 1.0 09 16 0.2 09 3.0 07 0.2 09
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 1.0 04 14 04 07 4.0 0.3 04 0.9

Transportation equipment 10 08 29 1.0 13 7A 0.0 0.1 0.6

Nondefense capital goods 16 08 2.0 0.3 1.0 44 0.3 02 0.5

Defense capital goods .. . . . 2.2 15 28 2.0 5.1 29.7 0.2 O.1 Ld

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sig
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

225 225
New Orders
215 -- ---- +--+ 2 - ee eee eee eee eee ------4 Shipments |-] 215
205 205
195 195
185 185
175 L 1 n il L i de 1 i 1 1 1 1 175
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May’ Jul Sep
Sep. 1997 - Sep. 1999
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

64 64

New Orders
59F-| Shipments | ---------------------------------- 459

44

44
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul Sep
Sep. 1997 - Sep. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.