Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
Shipments and Three Month

Moving Average

Durable Goods Excluding

Transportation
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars. Billions Of Dollars.
155000 155000 160000 160000
155000 -\ 155000
150000 150000 f i]
MUN wot on ste
y a
145000 A x 145000 at aA
yt \ 145000 | v1 \ 145000
140000 140000 TAM \
L > al 140000 V 140000
135000 4
135000 135000 \ 135000
130000 130000 130000 vv 130000
BRR8988 888555 RRR8898888555
eae e esc eaggadke go i ae) gage
S258 Pt 25758 2 SS 22582 F523 8 8B FS
— = Shipments Average — i= New Orders Average
Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars. 9 9 WS Ratios ‘UO/S Ratios
240000 240000 29 2.9
235000 235000 |
230000 Sf * 230000 24 24
225000 S 225000
220000 Wa 220000 Lo 1g
21s000 p= 215000 pe
210000 210000 ies ey
898888888555 28992888885 5 6
eoag gy Se oe ge ge £o¢3$ 4h 68 gah é
275 82 SPS SB EE S278 §# F535 RBESE
— — Inventories Average _—— 1/5 uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Durable Goods
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars

Durable Goods
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars
210000 210000 250000 250000
240000 240000
205000 } 205000 }
fy sooo zno0e
0000 I 000 |
y/ v 20 220000 220000
195000 L \ 195000 || 210000 210000
y’ Vv
200000 200000
190000 190000 \
190000 “WY 190000
185000 185000 || 180000 180000
$8 2888888 555 BE82 888888555
géo¢ ee bb og aie to¢ expe EE SG ERE
S288 F852 5 8 828 2258282328 8 28
— — Shipments Average — — New Orders Average
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars. US Ratios ‘UO/S Ratios:
315000 315000 47S 4.75
4.25 4.25
3.75 3.75
305000 S: \ 305000
3.25 3.25
2.75 2.75
295000 295000
LY 225 2.28
175 1.78
285000 285000 1.25 1.25
2822888888555 882883888555
eo¢ ee tEtag gé ees eb to ggg ce
S25 e822 5235 828 25 228 $8 F525 82 28
— — inventories Average —— 1/5 uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars

75000 75000 85000 85000

72000 72000 80000 kK 80000

69000 69000 || 75000 | ON / 75000

66000 66000 70000 f i \ 70000

I \' \

63000 63000 65000 \\ 65000
60000 60000 60000 60000
BREESE E885 ES 2899888888555
SPS SER 29528 58 S232 582 8 2255
—— = Shipments Average — — New orders Average
Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total

Moving Average inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars WS Ratios UO/S Ratios
135000 135000 3.5 5.5
5.0 5.0
Wy IN 45 45
130000 NJ 130000
4.0 40
3S 35
3.0 3.0

125000 125000,

25 25
2.0 2.0
—

120000 120000 Ls Ls
BREREEEEE85 55 BRRRS SSS 855s
seco gae ttaggate to ¢ 26¢5$ $4 bE
22768 F257 5 83 BS 227582 FES 3 REESE

— <= Inventories Average _—— 1s uo/s

X

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.



ECONOMICS

AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE

CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 July 26, 2001
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-01-130
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(01)-06

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

June 2001

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $3.7 billion or 2.0 percent to $184.1 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.7 percent May increase. Excluding
transportation, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Year to date, new orders are 11.6 percent below the same period a year ago;
new orders for the second quarter are 2.2 percent below the first quarter.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.8 billion or 3.3 percent to $52.4 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts;
nondefense aircraft and parts increased $0.9 billion or 12.2 percent to $8.4 billion. Computers and electronic products
decreased $1.1 billion or 3.2 percent to $33.9 billion, due to communications equipment.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in June decreased $4.4 billion or 2.3 percent to $188.1 billion, following a 3.2 percent May
increase. Year to date, shipments are 5.9 percent below the same period a year ago; shipments for the second quarter are 2.4
percent below the first quarter.

All durable goods subsectors decreased. Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.0 billion or 1.8 percent to $53.3
billion, due to motor vehicles and parts; nondefense aircraft and parts increased $0.4 billion or 4.7 percent to $8.9 billion.
Machinery, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.9 billion or 3.5 percent to $24.4 billion; this is the largest decrease
since February 2000. Computers and electronic products, led by electronic computers, decreased $0.6 billion or 1.6 percent to
$37.2 billion; this is the sixth consecutive decrease. Fabricated metal products decreased $0.5 billion or 2.4 percent to $20.2
billion. Primary metals, down ten of the last twelve months, decreased $0.4 billion or 3.5 percent to $11.9 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for durable goods in June, down six consecutive months, decreased $3.9 billion or 0.7 percent to
$574.3 billion, following a 0.8 percent May decrease. Computers and electronic products, led by communications equipment,
had the largest decrease, $3.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $135.9 billion; this is the seventh consecutive decrease. Transportation
equipment decreased $0.9 billion or 0.3 percent to $288.1 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3
percent to $150.7 billion.

@ INVENTORIES for durable goods in June, down five consecutive months, decreased $2.1 billion or 0.7 percent to
$302.1 billion, following a 0.7 percent May decrease. Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.1 billion or 1.4
percent to $74.7 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $31.2 billion. Computers and
electronic products, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $58.0 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.9 billion
or 14.0 percent to $5.3 billion. Shipments increased $0.5 billion or 8.6 percent to $6.6 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.3
billion or 1.0 percent to $123.8 billion. Inventories decreased $0.8 billion or 4.0 percent to $18.2 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June, down three consecutive months, decreased $2.2
billion or 3.4 percent to $61.5 billion. Shipments decreased $1.5 billion or 2.3 percent to $65.0 billion. Unfilled orders, down
six consecutive months, decreased $3.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $271.4 billion. Inventories, down five consecutive months,
decreased $0.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $129.5 billion.

@ REVISED MAY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $347.9

billion (revised from $347.8 billion); new orders, $343.3 billion (revised from $343.7 billion); unfilled orders, $578.3 billion
(revised from $578.8 billion); and total inventories, $477.2 billion (revised from $478.1 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods data will be published August 2, 2001 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for July is scheduled for August 24, 2001 at 8:30 A.M. This
report is available on the day of issue through STAT-USA/Internet at www stat-usa.gov.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS
(Millions of Dollars)

‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adiusted *
Monthly Percent Change ‘Monthly Percent
Item Change
Jun May Apr May - Apr - Mar - Jun May Jun Jun
2001? 2001‘ 2001 Jun? May ‘ Apr 2001 ? 2001‘ 2000 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipment: 188,055] 192,457] 186,519] -2.3] +3.2 -3.9] 206,501] 193,653] 228,315 -9.6
New Orders. 184,114] 187,858] 182,903 -2.0) +27 -5.7| 196,924] 184,829) 252,933) -22.1
Excluding transportation:
Shipment: 134,758] 138,192) 137,150] “2.5 +0.8 -3.1] 147,520] 136,155) 164,074] -10.1
New Order 131,672] 133,645) 130,237 15 +26 -4:1] 140,419] 129/470] 166,323] -15.6
Excluding defens
Shipment: 180,518] 185,488] 179,946 “2.7 43.1 3.9] 198,111] 186,803] 220,355] -10.1
New Orders. 177,118] 180,187] 175,539] “1 +26 4:9] 190,368] 178/551} 224,082) -15.0
Primary metals:
11,903} 12,339] 11,785 3.5 +47 3.3] 12,481] 12,743] 14,595] -14.5
12,225] 12,448) 11,635 18 +7.0) -2.0] 12,478] 12,517] 13,686] -8.8
20,233] 20,729] 20,242 2.4] +2.4 -1.6] 21,555] 21,362] 23,370] -7.8
20,277} 20,495] 19,802, Wa +3.5) -1.7] 21,487] 20/860] 23,052] -6.7
24,422| 25,316] 24,815 3.5 +2.0 -1.9] 27,003] 25,453] 27,690] -2.5
24,621| 24,7471 24,087 0.5 +27 +0.8| 25,795] 24,504) 27/659} 8.7
Computers and electronic products
Shipment 37,188] 37,792| 39,049 -1.6| “3.2 7.8) 42,466] 34,111] 52,330) -18.8
New Orders. 33/884) 34/988] 34,796 “3.2 +06 13.7] 37,641] 30,096] 56,730] 33.6
Computers and related products:
shipments 8,753; 9,408] 9,960] 2.0 4.8} 10,979] 8,088} 14,397) -23.7
New Orders 8,915] 9,256] 9.872 -3.7 -6.8] 10,990] 8,370) 14/138] -22:3
Communications equipment
Shipment: 7,222] 7,223] 7.462 0.0) -3.2 -10.0} 8,400] 6,564] 11,041] -23.9
New Orders. 4,752] 6,998] 7,310) -20.8| 17:3 -6.2| 5.943] 5,302) 15,172] -60.8
Semiconductors:
‘Shipments 7,330] 7,301 7,821 +0.4 10.4) 8,041 6,431) 10,246] -21.5
New Orders. 6,701 6.496] 4/854 +3.2 40.3) 6,477] 4527/8630] -24.9
Electrical equipment, appliances,
‘and component:
‘Shipment: 11,050] 11,293] 11,199) 2.2 +08 1.5] 12,153} 11,231] 12,461 2.5
New Orders. 10,681] 10,743) 10,798] 0.6 0.5 0.0] 11,463} 10,537] 12,783] -10.4
Transportation equipment:
‘Shipments 53,297] 54,265] 49,369 18 +9.9 6.1] 58,981] 57,498] 64,241 -8.2
New Orders 52,442| 54,213] 52,666 -3.3] +29 -9.4] 56,505] 55,359] 86,61 4.8
Motor vehicles and parts:
‘Shipment: 36,544) 38,540] 35,525 5.2 +8.5 -4.2] 39,949] 41,561] 46,019] -13.2
New Orders. 36,429| 38,3391 35,894 5.0| +68 3.1] 39/535] 40/987] 45,201] -12'5,
Aircraft and parts:
‘Shipments 11,664] 10,839} 9,280] +76)  +16.8| 2.4| 13,420] 10,974) 12.046] +11.4
New Orders. 11/220] 11,395] 11,117) : +25 3:8] 13,072) 10.405] 23,847) -45.2
All other durable good:
Shit 29,962} 30,723] 30,060 2.5 +22 +1.2) 31,862] 31,255] 33,628) 5.3
29/984} 30,224] 29,119 -0.8] 43.8 +11] 31/544] 30,856} 32/403] -2.7
71,632] 72,638] 71,265 -1.4] +19) -4.8] 81,028] 70,350) 88,334) 8.3
66,852} 69,885| 70,864 43] 1.4] -7.5] 72,771] 65,719] 116,474) -37.5
65,023] 66,555] 65,509 -2.3) -6.1] 73,731] 64,333] 81,615 “9.7
61,545] 63,713] 64,619 “3.4 6.5] 68/242] 60,742] 89,253] 3.5
6,609] 6,083] 5,756 +8.6 +5.7 -1.8] 7,297/ 6,017] 6,719] _+8.6
5,307 6,172] 6,245) -14.0| “1.2 -24.1 4'523] 4977] .27,221| 83.4

(NA) Not Available Revised

' Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and
‘ara not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

? Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is
ronsamplingeror, which includes errors of coverage, response and roneporting- Since th survey, pana isnot a probablity sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated,
Further ‘on aurvay design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(00),
Manufacturers: Shipments, inventors, ane Ordore: 1992-2000."

® The Capital Goods

snd equipment ‘machinery; mining, oll, and gas field machinery: industrial

9: ather computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment:
: other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks:

aieraft allroad rong stock: ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies.

De Capital Goods +t amall arms and nce, ‘equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.


3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted Not a
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Jun May Apr May = Apr - Mar - Jun May Jun Jun
20012 | 2001° 2001 Jun ? May‘ Apr 20017 | 2001° 2000 | 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total
Unfilled Orders... 574,329] 578,270] 582,869 -0.7 -0.8| -0.6} 572,045] 581,622) 577,371 0.9
Total Inventories....evssssccssee 2,121] 304,228] 306,488 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2| 298/800] 306,266] 300,174] -0.5,
Excluding transporta
Unfilled Orders. 286,241) 289,327] 293,874) Ad -1.5] -2.3| 284,017] 291,118] 313,046] -9.3,
Total Inventories. 227,449] 228,497] 230,410) -05 -0.8| 0.7| 225,268] 230,555] 222,989] +1.0
Excluding defense:
Unfilled Orders. 431,571] 434,971] 440,272 -0.8} -1.2| -1.0] 427,925] 435,668] 437,115] -2.1
Total inventories. 280,666] 281,986] 284/117 0:5) -0.8} -0.4) 277/276 283/994] 275/880] +0.5
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders. 19,086] 18,764] 18,655 +17 +0.6 -0.8] 19,198] 19,200] 21,214] -9.8
Total Inventories. 21,222] 21,473] 21,858) 1.2] 1.8] -1:0] 20,970] 21/355] 22627] -7.3
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders. 41,976] 41,932] 42,166 +01 -0.6 -1.0] 42,227] 42,285] 43,846] -3.7
Total Inventories. 34688] 34/932| 35,178 “0.7 -0.7| 0:5 :773] 38,175) 34:937| 0.5
Machinery:
Unilled Orders. 61,433] 61,240] 61,809) +03 0.9} 1.21 60,512) 61,720} 62,433] -3.1
Total Inventorie: 51,161] 51,044] $1,510 +0.2 -0.9| -0:5] 50,459] 51/493] 48'343] +44
Computers and electronic product
Unfilled Orders. 135,877] 139,181] 141,985 -2.4] -2.0| -2.9] 134,544] 139,369] 153,486] -12.3
Total Inventorie: 57.968] 58.539] 59/051 -1.0} 0:9 1.1] 57,174 ;563] 56,089} +1.9
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders. 10,435] 10,273] 10,425] +16 -1.5] 0.8] 19,424) 19.413) 9.801] +6.4
Total Inventorie: 8,904) 83] 9,499) “3.1 3.3 +04) 8537/9,741 81353) $2.2
Communications equipmer
Unfilled Orders. 44,817 48,512| “5.2 “2.5 -0.3) 45,104) 47,561] 48,632) -7.3,
Total Inventorie: 11/545 11,669] 0.9 -0.2 4.5] 11,117) 11/697) 12,631] -12.0
Semiconductors:
Unfilled Orders. 17,712 19,146 3.4 4.2] 13.4] 16,123] 17,687] 29,265] -44.9
Total Invento 8589 8,479] +14 -0.1 -0.3] 8,565] 8,654) 7,167] +19.5
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders. 17,407 18,326] “2.4 -3.0] -2.1) 17,157] 17,847] 19,003] 9.
Total Inventories. 15,540 15,964] “15 1.2 0:7] 15,406] 16,121] 14/812] +40,
Transportation equipmen
Unfilled Orders. 288,088 288,995 0.3 0.9} +1.2) 288,028] 290,504] 264,325] +9.0
Total Inventorie: 74,672| 0" 14 -0.5 +14) °73/532| 75,711] 77/185] 4.7
Motor vehicles and part
Unfilled Orders. 12,978} 13,093] 13,294] 0.9 1.5] +2.91 12,576] 12,990] 13,970] -10.0
Total Inventories. 21/838] 21,953] 22/370 -0.6| “1:8 +2.4{ 21/309] 21/831) 22/388] -4.8
Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 197,518] 197,962] 197,406 -0.2| +0.3 +0.9] 197,792] 198,140] 175,487] +12.7
Total Inventorie: 40,866] 41/239] 41/215) 0.5} 40.1 0.2) 40/381 41/3: 42,503] -5.0
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 10,456] 10,434] 10,933] +0.2 4.6| -7.9] 10,373] 10,697] 13,064] -20.6
Total Inventors. 46,870] 46,734] 46,849 +03 -0.2| -0.6] 46,480] 46,848) 46,181] +06
Capital goods
rts Orders 395,248] 400,028] 402,781 “1.2 0.7| -0.1] 394,345] 402,602] 387,209] +1.8
Total Inventories. 147,758] 149,192] 149/960 -1.0} -0.5] -0.1] 145,702] 150,725] 145,250] +0.3
Nondefense capital good:
Unfilled Orders. 271,419 274,897] | 277,739] 1.3] -1.9) -0.3] 270,087] 275,576) 262,214] +3.0
Total Inventories. 129/513] 130,192] 130/913 -0.5| 0.6| 0:6] 127,396] 131/624] 125306]  +1:7
Defense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 123,829] 125,131] 125,042 -1.0] +01 +0.4) 124,258] 127,026] 124,995] 0.6
Total Inventories. 245] 19,000] 19,047 4.0} -0.2 +35] 18,306] 19/101 944) 8.2

See footnotes at end of Table 1