FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2006, AT 8:30 A.M. EST 

Chris Savage or Patrick Kent 

Manufacturing and Construction Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (06)-10 

CB06-174

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

October 2006 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in 

October decreased $19.0 billion or 8.3 percent to $210.0 

billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This 

followed two consecutive monthly increases, including 

an 8.7 percent September increase. Excluding 

transportation, new orders decreased 1.7 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders decreased 6.4 percent. 

 

 Transportation equipment, down following two 

consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, 

$16.5 billion or 21.7 percent to $59.7 billion. This was 

led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased 

$10.6 billion. 

 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, 

up two of the last three months, increased $1.2 billion or 

0.6 percent to $210.0 billion. This followed a 2.7 

percent September decrease. 

 Machinery, up seven of the last eight months, had the 

largest increase, $0.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $28.3 

billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

October, up seventeen of the last eighteen months, 

increased $7.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $666.0 billion. 

This was at the highest level since the series was first 

stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 4.1 

percent September increase. 

 Transportation equipment, up seventeen of the last 

eighteen months, had the largest increase, $5.0 billion or 

1.4 percent to $358.2 billion. 

Inventories 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, 

up nine of the last ten months, increased $2.3 billion or 

0.8 percent to $293.8 billion. This followed a 1.1 

percent September increase. 

 Transportation equipment, up seven of the last eight 

months, had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 1.3 

percent to $68.3 billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in October 

decreased $13.6 billion or 15.6 percent to $73.2 billion. 

Shipments decreased $1.6 billion or 2.3 percent to $66.4 

billion. Unfilled orders increased $6.8 billion or 2.0 

percent to $350.8 billion. Inventories increased $0.8 

billion or 0.7 percent to $113.7 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in October 

decreased $5.7 billion or 42.1 percent to $7.8 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 4.7 percent to $8.2 

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3 

percent to $135.6 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 

billion or 0.6 percent to $14.2 billion. 

Revised September Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $411.0 

billion (revised from $411.2 billion); shipments, $390.8 

billion (revised from $392.4 billion); unfilled orders, 

$658.3 billion (revised from $656.9 billion); and total 

inventories, $479.6 billion (revised from $479.4 billion).

Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders 

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>.

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on December 5, 2006, at 10:00 a.m. EST. 

The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled for release on December 22, 2006, at 8:30 a.m. EST. See 

back page for survey description. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Change

2006 2 2006 r 2006 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2006 2 2006 r 2005 2006 2005 06/05

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 209,941 208,769 214,555 0.6 -2.7 2.1 213,590 220,456 206,589 2,105,097 1,974,022 6.6

 New Orders4.............................. 209,974 229,021 210,645 -8.3 8.7 0.0 212,375 235,420 207,005 2,120,454 1,957,810 8.3

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 155,211 154,375 157,774 0.5 -2.2 0.8 156,656 162,842 147,484 1,544,718 1,423,011 8.6

 New Orders4.............................. 150,229 152,752 151,951 -1.7 0.5 -1.3 151,709 158,451 144,016 1,509,034 1,385,084 8.9

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 200,037 199,366 204,689 0.3 -2.6 1.9 203,972 210,359 197,902 2,011,806 1,886,603 6.6

 New Orders4

.............................. 200,338 214,073 199,373 -6.4 7.4 -0.4 203,547 220,872 197,210 2,023,311 1,881,829 7.5

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 146,370 147,698 150,590 -0.9 -1.9 2.1 146,996 155,834 138,676 1,455,898 1,334,953 9.1

 New Orders4

.............................. 154,112 173,843 153,476 -11.3 13.3 -0.8 153,453 177,313 145,419 1,539,199 1,381,150 11.4

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 19,045 19,297 19,958 -1.3 -3.3 0.0 19,446 19,431 16,848 189,772 163,299 16.2

 New Orders.............................. 19,115 18,908 19,503 1.1 -3.1 -2.7 18,891 18,600 17,408 190,037 164,346 15.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 24,661 24,610 25,037 0.2 -1.7 1.3 25,649 25,519 24,121 248,580 230,555 7.8

 New Orders.............................. 24,425 25,044 25,595 -2.5 -2.2 2.7 24,917 25,555 24,401 254,375 236,855 7.4

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 28,343 27,817 28,169 1.9 -1.2 1.7 28,252 28,249 25,159 273,495 244,859 11.7

 New Orders.............................. 30,018 29,602 28,608 1.4 3.5 -1.0 30,417 29,058 26,373 284,977 251,857 13.2

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 34,858 34,466 35,745 1.1 -3.6 1.0 33,814 39,179 32,541 345,564 320,818 7.7

 New Orders4.............................. 27,575 30,722 30,040 -10.2 2.3 -2.1 26,860 34,780 26,158 287,315 264,910 8.5

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 4,715 6,276 6,710 -24.9 -6.5 -3.2 4,662 7,119 6,670 62,482 63,667 -1.9

 New Orders.............................. 4,766 6,410 6,354 -25.6 0.9 -10.1 4,713 7,253 6,386 62,049 63,249 -1.9 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 5,944 5,974 5,910 -0.5 1.1 10.5 5,632 7,075 4,979 57,768 49,834 15.9

 New Orders.............................. 5,526 6,652 6,700 -16.9 -0.7 12.2 5,548 8,077 5,341 60,476 52,374 15.5

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 7,709 5,893 6,796 30.8 -13.3 -1.1 7,672 6,515 6,327 67,944 62,409 8.9

 New Orders4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 10,249 10,023 10,367 2.3 -3.3 0.8 10,335 10,937 9,788 101,102 92,565 9.2

 New Orders.............................. 10,838 10,316 9,859 5.1 4.6 -8.9 11,130 10,870 10,132 105,678 95,268 10.9

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 54,730 54,394 56,781 0.6 -4.2 5.6 56,934 57,614 59,105 560,379 551,011 1.7

 New Orders.............................. 59,745 76,269 58,694 -21.7 29.9 3.6 60,666 76,969 62,989 611,420 572,726 6.8

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 37,203 36,585 39,436 1.7 -7.2 5.1 40,897 38,418 44,462 396,367 406,947 -2.6

 New Orders.............................. 37,434 36,932 39,301 1.4 -6.0 3.7 40,889 38,587 44,708 398,060 407,647 -2.4 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 8,199 8,863 8,158 -7.5 8.6 9.2 7,032 9,218 6,436 76,340 57,824 32.0

 New Orders.............................. 13,207 23,802 7,981 -44.5 198.2 -19.2 11,396 23,135 8,984 122,100 88,052 38.7

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,717 3,427 3,614 8.5 -5.2 6.4 3,487 3,842 3,035 33,724 32,285 4.5

 New Orders.............................. 3,546 2,976 3,301 19.2 -9.8 8.2 3,034 2,733 5,632 30,224 26,625 13.5

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 38,055 38,162 38,498 -0.3 -0.9 0.2 39,160 39,527 39,027 386,205 370,915 4.1

 New Orders.............................. 38,258 38,160 38,346 0.3 -0.5 -0.5 39,494 39,588 39,544 386,652 371,848 4.0

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 74,575 75,773 76,398 -1.6 -0.8 2.4 72,629 80,943 68,640 738,164 668,135 10.5

 New Orders.............................. 80,978 100,237 79,237 -19.2 26.5 -0.8 79,262 102,828 74,488 803,122 704,220 14.0

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 66,371 67,940 68,173 -2.3 -0.3 2.0 64,562 72,637 61,241 659,958 593,948 11.1

 New Orders.............................. 73,165 86,733 69,569 -15.6 24.7 -2.0 72,004 89,719 65,819 720,507 639,045 12.7

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 61,010 61,928 62,940 -1.5 -1.6 1.3 60,317 66,525 57,438 611,158 563,685 8.4

 New Orders.......................... 63,289 66,662 64,617 -5.1 3.2 1.1 63,733 70,258 59,463 632,960 577,127 9.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,204 7,833 8,225 4.7 -4.8 5.9 8,067 8,306 7,399 78,206 74,187 5.4

 New Orders.............................. 7,813 13,504 9,668 -42.1 39.7 9.1 7,258 13,109 8,669 82,615 65,175 26.8

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are no

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, whic

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-3(05), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2005

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vendin

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; a

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, an

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; an

medical equipment and supplies

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipme

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separatel
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct 2006/

2006 2 2006 r 2006 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2006 2 2006 r 2005 2005

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 666,026 658,284 632,139 1.2 4.1 0.5 655,729 649,272 537,434 22.0

 Total Inventories....................... 293,823 291,550 288,246 0.8 1.1 0.7 294,466 290,544 271,783 8.3

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 307,847 305,120 300,850 0.9 1.4 0.3 303,548 300,823 267,872 13.3

 Total Inventories....................... 225,570 224,175 221,811 0.6 1.1 1.2 225,268 222,867 206,158 9.3

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 517,683 509,673 489,073 1.6 4.2 0.3 511,332 504,085 399,527 28.0

 Total Inventories....................... 274,670 272,297 269,200 0.9 1.2 0.7 275,205 271,137 252,267 9.1

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 666,026 658,284 632,139 1.2 4.1 0.5 655,729 649,272 537,434 22.0

 Total Inventories....................... 229,073 227,000 223,688 0.9 1.5 0.5 229,596 225,998 210,471 9.1

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 26,723 26,653 27,042 0.3 -1.4 -1.7 25,539 26,094 22,829 11.9

 Total Inventories....................... 30,026 29,568 28,590 1.5 3.4 2.0 29,707 29,365 24,909 19.3

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 53,556 53,792 53,358 -0.4 0.8 1.1 52,900 53,632 47,023 12.5

 Total Inventories....................... 37,937 37,526 37,003 1.1 1.4 1.5 37,419 37,111 33,726 11.0

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 74,721 73,046 71,261 2.3 2.5 0.6 73,187 71,022 59,063 23.9

 Total Inventories....................... 46,307 46,155 45,422 0.3 1.6 0.6 46,302 45,919 43,234 7.1

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 118,275 117,849 115,700 0.4 1.9 1.0 117,270 116,552 107,821 8.8

 Total Inventories....................... 45,940 45,648 45,675 0.6 -0.1 1.5 46,697 45,590 42,849 9.0

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 4,269 4,218 4,084 1.2 3.3 -8.0 4,269 4,218 4,516 -5.5

 Total Inventories....................... 4,221 4,457 4,249 -5.3 4.9 1.1 4,400 4,461 4,453 -1.2

 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 35,888 36,306 35,628 -1.2 1.9 2.3 35,720 35,804 34,243 4.3

 Total Inventories....................... 10,253 10,061 9,963 1.9 1.0 0.3 10,445 9,916 10,154 2.9

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 22,491 21,902 21,609 2.7 1.4 -2.3 22,410 21,615 17,682 26.7

 Total Inventories....................... 14,032 13,979 14,116 0.4 -1.0 1.8 13,892 13,672 12,485 11.3

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 358,179 353,164 331,289 1.4 6.6 0.6 352,181 348,449 269,562 30.6

 Total Inventories....................... 68,253 67,375 66,435 1.3 1.4 -1.1 69,198 67,677 65,625 5.4

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 19,569 19,338 18,991 1.2 1.8 -0.7 18,785 18,793 16,160 16.2

 Total Inventories....................... 24,291 23,988 24,230 1.3 -1.0 0.8 24,378 24,156 23,833 2.3 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 215,154 210,146 195,207 2.4 7.7 -0.1 213,194 208,830 138,502 53.9

 Total Inventories....................... 24,210 23,738 22,682 2.0 4.7 -4.2 24,848 23,788 21,885 13.5

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 43,498 43,669 44,120 -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 42,008 42,461 43,170 -2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 11,925 12,065 11,798 -1.2 2.3 -0.3 12,042 12,170 11,822 1.9

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,081 11,878 11,880 1.7 0.0 -1.3 12,242 11,908 13,454 -9.0

 Total Inventories....................... 51,328 51,299 51,005 0.1 0.6 0.6 51,251 51,210 48,955 4.7

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 486,415 480,012 455,548 1.3 5.4 0.6 479,653 473,020 383,955 24.9

 Total Inventories....................... 127,886 127,177 125,084 0.6 1.7 -0.2 128,890 126,701 120,967 6.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 350,778 343,984 325,191 2.0 5.8 0.4 347,463 340,021 257,069 35.2

 Total Inventories....................... 113,668 112,871 110,797 0.7 1.9 -0.1 114,681 112,346 106,116 8.1

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 162,692 160,413 155,679 1.4 3.0 1.1 161,008 157,592 138,464 16.3

 Total Inventories................... 95,306 94,875 93,834 0.5 1.1 1.0 95,781 94,220 89,331 7.2

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 135,637 136,028 130,357 -0.3 4.4 1.1 132,190 132,999 126,886 4.2

 Total Inventories....................... 14,218 14,306 14,287 -0.6 0.1 -0.4 14,209 14,355 14,851 -4.3

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4 

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations), 

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value), and 

inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-in-process, and finished goods). The M3 includes 

approximately 4,200 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous 

companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89 

categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-tomonth changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-tomonth movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the survey show 

that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 62 percent of the shipments estimates at the total 

manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is based on a 

voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,200 reporting units and provide an 

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a 

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,200 companies would 

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a 

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore, 

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are 

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for 

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full report. 

Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made 

later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. 

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.

2007 Release Dates for M3 Survey

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M. 

Nov 2006 January 4, 2007 

Dec 2006 January 26, 2007 February 2, 2007 

Jan 2007 February 27, 2007 March 6, 2007 

Feb 2007 March 28, 2007 April 4, 2007 

Mar 2007 April 25, 2007 May 2, 2007 

Apr 2007 May 24, 2007 June 4, 2007 

May 2007 June 27, 2007 July 3, 2007 

Jun 2007 July 26, 2007 August 2, 2007 

Jul 2007 August 24, 2007 August 31, 2007 

Aug 2007 September 26, 2007 October 4, 2007 

Sep 2007 October 25, 2007 November 2, 2007

Oct 2007 November 28, 2007 December 5, 2007

Nov 2007 December 27, 2007