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FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EDT, WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2021

MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, 

INVENTORIES AND ORDERS SEPTEMBER 2021

Release Number: CB 21-164 M3-1 (21)-09

Statement Regarding COVID-19 Impact: The Census Bureau continues to monitor response and data 

quality and has determined that estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more 

information, see < M3 COVID-19 FAQs>.

October 27, 2021 — The U.S. Census Bureau announces the September advance report on durable goods 

manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders:

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $261.3

billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following four consecutive monthly 

increases, followed a 1.3 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4

percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.0 percent. Transportation equipment, down two of 

the last three months, drove the decrease, $1.8 billion or 2.3 percent to $77.7 billion.

DURABLE GOODS – NEW ORDERS

SEPTEMBER 2021 $261.3 billion -0.4%°

AUGUST 2021

(revised) $262.3 billion +1.3%°

Next release: November 24, 2021

Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes.

°Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey. The Manufacturers' Shipments, 

Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so the sampling 

error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the confidence intervals be computed.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, October 27, 

2021.

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21

DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2020-2021

Seasonally Adjusted, Month-To-Month Percentage Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, October 27, 2021.
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Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up four of the last five months, increased $1.1

billion or 0.4 percent to $257.0 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent August decrease. Machinery, up eleven 

of the last twelve months, led the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.7 percent to $37.3 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up eight consecutive months, increased

$8.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $1,247.1 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent August increase. Transportation

equipment, up seven of the last eight months, led the increase, $5.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $825.0 billion.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up eight consecutive months, increased $4.0

billion or 0.9 percent to $462.7 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent August increase. Transportation 

equipment, also up eight consecutive months, led the increase, $1.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $154.6 billion. 

Capital Goods

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September decreased $3.7 billion or 4.2 percent to $84.9

billion. Shipments increased $1.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $81.0 billion. Unfilled orders increased $3.9

billion or 0.5 percent to $757.4 billion. Inventories increased $1.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $202.7 billion. 

Defense new orders for capital goods in September increased $3.3 billion or 28.4 percent to $15.0 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $12.2 billion. Unfilled orders increased $2.8 billion or 

1.5 percent to $190.8 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $21.1 billion.

Revised August Data

Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $514.6

billion (revised from $515.7 billion); shipments, $508.3 billion (unchanged); unfilled orders, $1,238.3 billion 

(revised from $1,239.4 billion) and total inventories, $750.7 billion (revised from $749.3 billion).

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on November 3, 2021,

at 10:00 a.m. EDT. The Advance Report on durable goods for October is scheduled for release on

November 24, 2021 at 8:30 a.m. EST. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room:

<https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/>. The full text and tables of this release can be found at

<www.census.gov/m3>.
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EXPLANATORY NOTES

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders 

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing. 

“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or 

decrease.

Description of the survey

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, 

and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. This 

survey provides statistics on a calendar-month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders 

(net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at 

current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-inprocess, and finished goods). Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately 

5,000 reporting units that represent approximately 3,100 companies and provide an indication of monthto-month change for the Manufacturing Sector. These reporting units may be divisions of diversified large 

companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, which 

are combined into 65 publication levels due to the small monthly panel size. The survey methodology 

assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the M3 panel 

effectively represent the month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. 

The companies for which shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent 

approximately 60 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2017

Economic Census, and these companies include roughly 61 percent of the manufacturing companies with 

$500 million or more in shipments in the 2017 Economic Census. The companies for which shipments data 

are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 51 percent of the total value of 

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2017 Economic Census. Statistics based on the M3 

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing 

companies. The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are 

normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many 

sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is 

one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-to-month 

movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full 

report. Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any 

revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. Additional 
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survey documentation can be found on our web site: 

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.

Special Notice - New Advance Estimates Of Total Manufacturing

Beginning with the release of September 2021 data on October 27, 2021, advance estimates of total 

manufacturing, including M3 durable and nondurable industries, for shipments and inventories, will be 

available at the same time as the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, 

Inventories and Orders. Monthly advance total manufacturing estimates will be available on a seasonally 

adjusted basis as well as a not seasonally adjusted basis on the M3 website under the “Advance Report 

Highlights”. For more information, please see: monthly data example <tabletm_ex.xlsx>. 

2022 Release Dates for the M3 Survey

Survey month Advance Report 

(8:30 a.m. release time)

Full Report 

(10:00 a.m. release time)

Nov-21 Thu 12/23/2021 Thu 1/6/2022

Dec-21 Thu 1/27/2022 Thu 2/3/2022

Jan-22 Fri 2/25/2022 Thu 3/3/2022

Feb-22 Thu 3/24/2022 Mon 4/4/2022

Mar-22 Tue 4/26/2022 Tue 5/3/2022

Apr-22 Wed 5/25/2022 Thu 6/2/2022

May-22 Mon 6/27/2022 Tue 7/5/2022

Jun-22 Wed 7/27/2022 Wed 8/3/2022

Jul-22 Wed 8/24/2022 Fri 9/2/2022

Aug-22 Tue 9/27/2022 Tue 10/4/2022

Sep-22 Thu 10/27/2022 Thu 11/3/2022

Oct-22 Wed 11/23/2022 Mon 12/5/2022

Nov-22 Fri 12/23/2022 Not available at this time

OMB: Schedule of Release Dates 2022 (whitehouse.gov)
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RESOURCES

API

The Census Bureau’s application programming interface (API) lets developers create custom apps to reach 

new users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever 

before.

<www.census.gov/developers/>

FRED Mobile App

Receive the latest updates on the nation’s key economic indicators by downloading 

the FRED App <https://fred.stlouisfed.org/fred-mobile/> for both Apple and 

Android devices. FRED, the signature database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. 

Louis, now incorporates the Census Bureau’s 13 economic indicators.

###
Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep Change

2021 2 2021 r 2021 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2021 2 2021 r 2020 2021 2020 2021/2020

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 256,986 255,934 257,315 0.4 -0.5 2.0 271,955 263,626 247,641 2,260,439 1,990,277 13.6

 New Orders4

.............................. 261,288 262,287 258,846 -0.4 1.3 0.5 270,778 265,151 236,648 2,286,149 1,852,298 23.4

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 184,467 182,682 181,733 1.0 0.5 1.2 193,818 188,056 169,629 1,603,657 1,405,530 14.1

 New Orders4

.............................. 183,565 182,758 182,210 0.4 0.3 0.8 190,895 184,415 166,416 1,613,454 1,375,357 17.3

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 242,913 241,691 242,734 0.5 -0.4 1.8 256,376 249,779 233,713 2,137,114 1,875,692 13.9

 New Orders4

.............................. 244,164 249,046 244,787 -2.0 1.7 -0.5 252,290 255,048 224,316 2,165,874 1,735,658 24.8

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 182,427 180,865 180,257 0.9 0.3 1.8 193,346 184,605 166,752 1,580,576 1,398,839 13.0

 New Orders.............................. 191,215 191,627 186,219 -0.2 2.9 -0.4 197,096 190,880 160,680 1,645,041 1,297,229 26.8

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 23,989 23,912 23,911 0.3 0.0 2.9 24,433 24,622 18,738 204,822 164,485 24.5

 New Orders.............................. 24,116 23,979 24,442 0.6 -1.9 1.7 23,920 24,047 19,084 209,963 164,391 27.7

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 35,631 35,084 34,709 1.6 1.1 2.6 37,009 36,927 31,122 305,970 266,463 14.8

 New Orders.............................. 36,812 36,568 35,720 0.7 2.4 0.8 37,140 37,895 31,347 325,385 267,547 21.6

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 37,256 36,627 36,150 1.7 1.3 1.3 38,243 36,697 32,293 319,082 278,840 14.4

 New Orders.............................. 38,592 38,178 38,524 1.1 -0.9 3.0 39,267 37,416 32,761 332,959 281,019 18.5

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Shipments................................ 29,217 28,984 28,905 0.8 0.3 0.1 32,559 29,088 31,361 255,568 239,735 6.6

 New Orders.............................. 25,176 25,247 24,950 -0.3 1.2 -0.1 28,591 24,119 26,889 219,995 204,367 7.6

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 1,973 1,977 2,008 -0.2 -1.5 0.5 2,127 1,928 1,951 17,290 15,402 12.3

 New Orders.............................. 1,953 1,961 2,022 -0.4 -3.0 1.5 2,107 1,912 1,967 17,225 15,281 12.7 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 3,478 3,470 3,455 0.2 0.4 0.1 4,340 3,154 4,251 30,335 27,879 8.8

 New Orders.............................. 3,581 3,655 3,665 -2.0 -0.3 -3.8 4,424 3,283 4,277 31,553 28,088 12.3

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 12,612 12,551 12,632 0.5 -0.6 1.6 13,689 13,109 11,635 111,155 97,246 14.3

 New Orders.............................. 12,998 13,069 12,859 -0.5 1.6 -0.9 13,839 13,481 11,708 115,496 98,540 17.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 72,519 73,252 75,582 -1.0 -3.1 4.1 78,137 75,570 78,012 656,782 584,747 12.3

 New Orders.............................. 77,723 79,529 76,636 -2.3 3.8 -0.4 79,883 80,736 70,232 672,695 476,941 41.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 49,962 51,158 52,968 -2.3 -3.4 5.4 52,568 54,927 57,920 464,681 410,547 13.2

 New Orders.............................. 49,998 51,491 53,564 -2.9 -3.9 5.3 52,807 55,392 58,188 467,481 410,697 13.8 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts5

:

 Shipments................................ 8,507 7,941 8,043 7.1 -1.3 -6.0 10,263 6,709 6,510 68,897 60,516 13.8

 New Orders.............................. 10,844 15,044 9,177 -27.9 63.9 -36.3 9,386 15,017 180 85,654 -49,723 (NA)

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 4,365 4,530 4,533 -3.6 -0.1 5.3 5,010 4,518 4,802 39,884 40,961 -2.6

 New Orders.............................. 6,142 3,006 3,462 104.3 -13.2 -3.6 6,617 2,532 3,017 36,795 38,373 -4.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 45,762 45,524 45,426 0.5 0.2 -0.3 47,885 47,613 44,480 407,060 358,761 13.5

 New Orders.............................. 45,871 45,717 45,715 0.3 0.0 -0.4 48,138 47,457 44,627 409,656 359,493 14.0

 Capital goods3

:

 Shipments................................ 93,216 91,798 91,830 1.5 0.0 0.9 100,321 90,062 86,848 804,048 707,065 13.7

 New Orders.............................. 99,929 100,288 94,950 -0.4 5.6 -3.1 102,736 96,241 81,168 840,298 608,448 38.1

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 81,012 79,477 79,186 1.9 0.4 0.1 86,976 78,141 75,155 697,811 610,114 14.4

 New Orders.............................. 84,932 88,610 82,516 -4.2 7.4 -5.9 87,122 87,244 70,740 734,702 506,520 45.0

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 75,893 74,864 74,393 1.4 0.6 0.9 80,261 74,626 71,385 656,638 577,394 13.7

 New Orders.......................... 77,712 77,093 76,736 0.8 0.5 0.3 81,652 75,257 72,410 676,616 583,395 16.0

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 12,204 12,321 12,644 -0.9 -2.6 5.9 13,345 11,921 11,693 106,237 96,951 9.6

 New Orders.............................. 14,997 11,678 12,434 28.4 -6.1 20.3 15,614 8,997 10,428 105,596 101,928 3.6

r Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment. 

1 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of 

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, 

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes. 

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage, response and 

nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3. 

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, and other machinery; 

photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; 

other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; 

heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; 

missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment. 

4

 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and 

unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

5

 (NA) - New Orders year-to-date percent change is not provided for Nondefense aircraft and parts because the denominator has a negative value. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, September Advance Report, October 27, 2021. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website at 

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>. 
Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep 2021/

2021 2 2021 r 2021 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2021 2 2021 r 2020 2020

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 1,247,074 1,238,286 1,227,524 0.7 0.9 0.5 1,239,076 1,235,326 1,181,256 4.9

 Total Inventories....................... 462,705 458,665 454,441 0.9 0.9 0.8 462,533 461,848 428,074 8.0

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 422,053 418,469 413,984 0.9 1.1 1.2 419,277 417,273 363,386 15.4

 Total Inventories....................... 308,114 305,111 302,252 1.0 0.9 0.9 307,098 306,819 280,267 9.6

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................... 1,031,871 1,026,134 1,014,370 0.6 1.2 0.6 1,025,575 1,024,734 962,695 6.5

 Total Inventories....................... 437,849 433,883 429,843 0.9 0.9 0.8 437,707 436,972 403,714 8.4

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,247,074 1,238,286 1,227,524 0.7 0.9 0.5 1,239,076 1,235,326 1,181,256 4.9

 Total Inventories....................... 372,568 369,475 366,619 0.8 0.8 0.7 372,611 372,246 348,705 6.9

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 41,037 40,910 40,843 0.3 0.2 1.3 39,848 40,361 31,742 25.5

 Total Inventories....................... 40,917 40,564 40,014 0.9 1.4 1.8 40,733 40,768 33,840 20.4

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 103,867 102,686 101,202 1.2 1.5 1.0 103,776 103,645 82,687 25.5

 Total Inventories....................... 59,973 59,175 58,407 1.3 1.3 1.2 59,730 59,275 52,130 14.6

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 112,208 110,872 109,321 1.2 1.4 2.2 111,313 110,289 95,922 16.0

 Total Inventories....................... 74,980 74,046 73,098 1.3 1.3 0.9 75,320 74,595 69,512 8.4

 Computers and electronic products4:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 121,340 120,895 120,223 0.4 0.6 0.4 120,921 119,962 116,511 3.8

 Total Inventories....................... 47,419 47,040 46,872 0.8 0.4 0.1 47,216 47,517 46,287 2.0

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,480 1,500 1,516 -1.3 -1.1 0.9 1,480 1,500 1,466 1.0

 Total Inventories....................... 3,781 3,733 3,659 1.3 2.0 -0.3 3,903 3,888 3,506 11.3 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 19,789 19,686 19,501 0.5 0.9 1.1 19,700 19,616 18,123 8.7

 Total Inventories....................... 5,137 5,073 5,166 1.3 -1.8 0.3 5,088 5,245 5,111 -0.5

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 31,173 30,787 30,269 1.3 1.7 0.8 30,945 30,795 25,943 19.3

 Total Inventories....................... 21,062 20,894 20,770 0.8 0.6 1.1 20,777 21,151 19,509 6.5

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 825,021 819,817 813,540 0.6 0.8 0.1 819,799 818,053 817,870 0.2

 Total Inventories....................... 154,591 153,554 152,189 0.7 0.9 0.5 155,435 155,029 147,807 5.2

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 28,114 28,078 27,745 0.1 1.2 2.2 27,647 27,408 23,698 16.7

 Total Inventories....................... 50,314 49,332 48,098 2.0 2.6 1.8 50,525 49,831 39,961 26.4 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 598,482 596,145 589,042 0.4 1.2 0.2 595,517 596,394 591,253 0.7

 Total Inventories....................... 76,305 76,424 76,371 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 76,876 77,130 80,938 -5.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 81,333 79,556 81,080 2.2 -1.9 -1.3 80,892 79,285 85,824 -5.7

 Total Inventories....................... 12,549 12,466 12,388 0.7 0.6 0.3 12,535 12,506 12,261 2.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,428 12,319 12,126 0.9 1.6 2.4 12,474 12,221 10,581 17.9

 Total Inventories....................... 63,763 63,392 63,091 0.6 0.5 0.8 63,322 63,513 58,989 7.3

 Capital goods3:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 948,270 941,557 933,067 0.7 0.9 0.3 942,703 940,288 918,633 2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 223,874 222,565 221,220 0.6 0.6 0.5 224,554 225,078 218,471 2.8

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 757,446 753,526 744,393 0.5 1.2 0.4 753,616 753,470 727,805 3.5

 Total Inventories....................... 202,745 201,500 200,339 0.6 0.6 0.4 203,441 203,959 197,791 2.9

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 235,273 233,454 231,225 0.8 1.0 1.0 233,888 232,497 212,083 10.3

 Total Inventories................... 136,647 135,317 134,259 1.0 0.8 0.8 136,728 137,006 128,003 6.8

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 190,824 188,031 188,674 1.5 -0.3 -0.1 189,087 186,818 190,828 -0.9

 Total Inventories....................... 21,129 21,065 20,881 0.3 0.9 1.2 21,113 21,119 20,680 2.1

r Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment. 

1 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of shipments and new 

orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, as well as seasonal variation, based on the 

results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes. 

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of 

coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations, see 

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3. 

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, and other 

machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic 

computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other 

electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : 

small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment. 

4

 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals. Estimates and percent changes for 

new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, September Advance Report, October 27, 2021. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website at 

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.