# Revised	Preliminary	Cost	Analysis	for	Regulatory

Changes	to	the	Listing	Status	of	High‐GWP

Alternatives

P REPARED FOR 

### :

Stratospheric	Protection	Division

Office	of	Air	and	Radiation

U.S.	Environmental	Protection	Agency

Washington,	D.C.	20460

P REPARED B Y 

### :

ICF	International

1725	Eye	Street,	NW

Washington,	DC	20006

A PRIL 

### 20152 

## Executive Summary

This analysis presents an estimate of the overall potential

costs associated with a rulemaking to change the listing

status of certain high

‐ GWP alternatives used in aerosols,

foams, commercial refrigeration, and motor vehicle air

conditioning (MVAC). Exhibit 1 summarizes the regulatory

changes analyzed. While about 645,000 businesses are

potentially affected by this rule, the analysis estimates that

the rule is expected to result in changes in costs for less than

0.1% of those businesses. Using a 7% discount rate, total

annualized compliance costs across affected businesses are

estimated to range from $28.0 million to $50.6 million; total

annual savings are estimated to be about $19.3 million; thus

annualized net compliance costs are estimated to range

from $8.7 million to $42.7 million. Using a 3% discount rate,

total annualized compliance costs across affected businesses

are estimated to range from $19.5 million to $37.8 million,

total annual savings are estimated be about $19.3 million,

and thus annualized net compliance costs are estimated to

range from $0.2 million to $31.9 million.



## Methodology

This analysis builds on the general approach taken previously

to estimate potential economic impacts on small

businesses—as described in Economic Impact Screening

Analysis for Regulatory Changes to the Listing Status of High

‐

GWP Alternatives —to extend the assessment to all

‐ sized

businesses potentially affected by the rulemaking

. Industries

potentially affected by these regulatory changes were

primarily identified by North American Industry Classification

System (NAICS) codes. 1 Costs to affected businesses were

calculated using a direct compliance cost method and then

annualized. Costs or savings associated with changes in

energy efficiency were not estimated because energy

efficiency is related to a number of factors, including

equipment design or thickness of foam, and not just to the refrigerant or foam blowing agent used.

Apart from a few exceptions, this analysis uses the same assumptions as the small business screening analysis,

including those about:

 Which industries might be affected by the regulatory changes;

1 The small business threshold varied for specific industries based on their NAICS code. Exhibit 1: Summary of Regulatory Changes Analyzed

 List unacceptable HFC

‐ 134a for new MVACs starting in

model year 2021 except as allowed under a narrowed use

limit for certain exports.

 List unacceptable HFC

‐ 125 for aerosols in 2016, restrict

use of HFC

‐ 134a to certain medical aerosols and technical

aerosols in 2016; restrict HFC

‐ 227ea and blends of HFC

‐

227ea and HFC

‐ 134a in aerosols to metered dose inhalers

in 2016.

 List unacceptable certain HFCs and HFC blends in 1) rigid

polyurethane appliance foam; 2) flexible polyurethane; 3)

rigid polyurethane: commercial refrigeration and

sandwich; 4) rigid polyurethane and polyisocyanurate

laminated boardstock; 5) rigid polyurethane slabstock; 6)

polyurethane integral skin; 7) polystyrene: extruded

sheet; 8) polystyrene: extruded boardstock and billet; 9)

polyolefin; 10) PU marine flotation foam and 11) phenolic

foams in various years from 2017 to 2020 for specified

end

‐ uses, except for certain military, space ‐ and

aeronautics

‐ related applications.

Commercial Refrigeration:

 List unacceptable 10 high

‐ GWP HFCs/HFC blends for: new

supermarket systems in 2017; new remote condensing

units in 2018.

 List unacceptable 9 high

‐ GWP HFCs/HFC blends for:

retrofitted supermarket systems and retrofitted remote

condensing units in 2016.

 List unacceptable 31 high

‐ GWP HFCs/HFC blends for: new

stand

‐ alone medium

‐ temperature units with a

compressor capacity below 2,200 Btu/hr and not

containing a flooded evaporator in 2019.

 List unacceptable 28 high

‐ GWP HFCs/HFC blends for: new

stand

‐ alone medium

‐ temperature units with a

compressor capacity equal to or greater than 2,200

Btu/hr; new stand

‐ alone units containing a flooded

evaporator; new stand

‐ alone low

‐ temperature units in

2020.

 List unacceptable 20 high

‐ GWP HFCs/HFC blends for new

vending machines in 2018.

 List unacceptable R

‐ 404A and R

‐ 507A for: retrofitted

vending machines and retrofitted stand

‐ alone retail food

refrigeration equipment in 2016.3  The proportion of businesses that could be directly affected by the rulemaking, based on whether the

HFCs affected by this rulemaking are still—or were ever—known to be in use, and what proportion of

the market the affected HFCs are expected to represent at the time that the status of the HFC changes

for that sector;

 The alternatives that are implemented in the transition away from the HFCs affected by this rulemaking,

for modeling purposes; 2 and

 The capital, operating, maintenance, and other direct compliance costs incurred by affected businesses.

Table 1 provides the basic financial assumptions used in this analysis.

Table 1: Financial Assumptions used in Cost Analysis

Parameter Assumption

Discount rates 3% and 7%

Constant Year Dollars 2013$

Lifetime for

annualizing costs Varies based on equipment type: 25 years for foam manufacturing; 20 years for commercial

refrigeration; 10 years for aerosol product manufacturing; Not Applicable for MVACs because

costs are estimated per vehicle at time of manufacture

The sections below briefly describe the cost assumptions, as well as additional assumptions that were required

for the aerosols and foams sectors to extend the small business economic impact screening assessment to those

businesses not characterized as small under the Small Business Administration guidelines (hereafter referred to

as “larger” businesses).



### Motor Vehicle Air Conditioning Assumptions

The EPA has previously examined when automobile manufacturers may be able to transition their fleets to

lower

‐ GWP refrigerants in its rules to extend the greenhouse gas and fuel economy standards for model year

(MY) 2017–2025 light

‐ duty vehicles. 77 FR 62624, 62807

‐ 810 (October 15, 2012); see also 75 FR 25325, 25431

‐

32 (May 7, 2010) (discussing the same issue for MY 2012–2016 light duty vehicles).

When refrigerants leak from current motor vehicle air conditioning systems, they contribute to overall GHG

emissions. Using lower

‐ GWP refrigerants can significantly reduce the climate impact of these emissions. Given

the increasing availability of lower

‐ GWP chemicals suitable for this purpose and systems that can use them, as

well as increasing requirement for lower

‐ GWP refrigerants in Europe, EPA based the light

‐ duty greenhouse gas

(LD GHG) standards for MYs 2017–2025 in part on an expected gradual transition to lower

‐ GWP refrigerants.

2 The transition scenario analyzed here reflects possible steps towards compliance with the final rule. The

transition scenario reflects a direct compliance cost method and does not assume the regulated community

chooses higher

‐ cost solutions where known solutions exist. A separate technical support document analyzes the

benefits of the final rule and makes separate assumptions on the possible transitions for compliance based on

considerations of the market and activity towards lower

‐ GWP solutions. Higher or lower benefits do not

necessarily correlate to higher or lower costs due to the different assumptions and methodologies used in the

different analyses. However, the transition scenarios assumed here are similar to the lower, less aggressive

transition scenario in the benefits analysis.4 Thus, in setting the level of the standards, EPA projected that the industry will make the full transition to lower

‐

GWP refrigerants over the period of time spanning between MY 2017 and MY 2021, and the level of the

standard in each of these model years reflects a projected 20 percent increase in substitution in each model

year and complete transition by MY 2021. 77 FR 62720/2

‐ 3. In support of the assumption of this multi

‐ year

transition, the LD GHG rule for MYs 2017–2025 includes an extensive discussion of the refrigerant substitute

availability and technical feasibility of transitioning the fleet. 77 FR 62720; 62807

‐ 810.

Given current industry trends and other regulatory incentives and requirements, all light

‐ duty vehicle and truck

manufacturers are expected to transition their vehicle production for domestic sales out of HFC

‐ 134a prior to

the status change date for this sector (i.e., model year 2021). Factors affecting the transition to low

‐ GWP

refrigerants in MVAC are discussed in the preamble to the final rule as well as in the LD GHG rule and its

supporting documents. Because the analysis supporting the LD GHG rulemaking accounted for impacts of a full

transition by MY 2021 for domestic sales, this analysis considers only export vehicles to estimate costs that

would be incurred as a result of this rulemaking.

Light duty vehicle manufacturers purchase MVAC system components from a third party and then assemble and

install the MVAC systems in

‐ house. Potential costs to manufacturers were estimated based on per

‐ system costs

of alternative systems, as identified in EPA’s report on Global Mitigation of Non

‐ CO 2 Greenhouse Gases: 2010–

2030 (EPA 2013), and converted to 2013 dollars. The incremental per

‐ system cost of an alternative MVAC

system compared to an HFC

‐ 134a system is estimated to be about $62/unit. These incremental costs are less

than 1% relative to the total direct manufacturing cost for a light duty vehicle. It is assumed that the impact of

the rulemaking on most export sales is minimal due to export countries with similar regulations or initiatives

mitigating HFC

‐ 134a use such as the European MAC Directive (2006/40/EC) (European Union 2006).For export

countries lacking such regulations or incentives and also lacking infrastructure to service low

‐ GWP refrigerants,

the rule allows continued use subject to the requirements of a “narrowed use limit” through 2025. This analysis

assumes that low

‐ GWP service infrastructure will be established by 2025 in these export countries and that

there will be no incremental costs for vehicle manufacturers to manufacture and export vehicles with low

‐ GWP

refrigerant MVAC systems by 2025. 3 However, for the purpose of this analysis, at the higher end of the range,

incremental costs are assumed for manufacturers that may produce solely for an export market for countries

that do not have regulations or initiatives mitigating 134a use in motor vehicles or for countries where the

market demand is more elastic to incremental cost changes.



### Aerosol Assumptions

A significant portion of the aerosol product manufacturing industry never used HFCs; already transitioned out of

the HFCs included in the rule; or manufactures products for which the included HFCs will be listed as acceptable,

subject to use conditions. However, some tire inflator manufacturers and manufacturers of products for the

functional and sensitivity testing of smoke detectors still use HFC

‐ 134a propellant and are expected to be

3 Light duty vehicle manufacturers purchase MVAC system components from a third party and then assemble and install the

MVAC systems in

‐ house. Currently, potential costs to manufacturers are estimated based on per

‐ system costs of alternative

systems, as identified in EPA’s report on Global Mitigation of Non

‐ CO 2 Greenhouse Gases: 2010

‐ 2030 (EPA 2013), and

converted to 2013 dollars. The incremental per

‐ system cost of an alternative MVAC system compared to an HFC

‐ 134a

system is estimated to be about $62/unit. These incremental costs are less than 1% relative to the total direct

manufacturing cost for a light duty vehicle.5 affected by this rulemaking.

 Tire inflator manufacturers —In addition to the two small businesses identified in the small business

screening analysis, two additional manufacturers were identified as potentially still producing aerosol

tire inflators containing HFC

‐ 134a propellant, using the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

Household Products Database and employee data available from Dun and Bradstreet (2014). These four

manufacturers are assumed to produce a total of approximately 20.6 million tire inflators per year; this

estimate was based on a production estimate from one manufacturer and by applying a ratio of annual

sales to that production estimate to approximate annual production for the other manufacturers. The

manufacturers are expected to incur one

‐ time capital conversion costs between $342,000 and $1.3

million to convert to hydrocarbons, and annual savings of approximately $0.26 per aerosol can produced

due to the lower cost of hydrocarbon

‐ based propellant (EPA 2013).

 Manufacturers of products for the functional testing of smoke detectors —Three small businesses were

identified in the small business screening analysis and one additional manufacturer was identified as still

producing products containing HFC

‐ 134a propellant, using available employee data and parent company

information. Although production totals for these smoke detector tester products are not available, the

market is considered to be very small. The affected manufacturers are expected to incur one

‐ time

capital conversion costs between $105,000 and $530,000 to convert to HFO

‐ 1234ze propellant, and

annual costs of approximately $0.13 per aerosol can produced due to the higher cost of HFO

‐ 1234ze

propellant (EPA 2013).



### Foams Assumptions

The rulemaking is not anticipated to affect manufacturers in some foam types (polystyrene extruded sheet,

flexible polyurethane: slabstock and moulded, rigid polyurethane, polyolefin, phenolic) because these foam

types are not known to be currently manufactured in the United States using the HFCs listed as unacceptable.

The regulatory changes would serve to avoid the future use of these HFCs in these foam types.

In the foams sector, compliance costs generally include one

‐ time capital costs for a production facility to

transition to an alternative blowing agent; in some foam end

‐ uses, these capital costs would be offset by annual

savings associated with lower alternative blowing agent costs. Assumptions are briefly described below; for

more detail, please see Economic Impact Screening Analysis for Regulatory Changes to the Listing Status of High

‐

GWP Alternatives

.

Polystyrene Foam Product Manufacturing:

 Polystyrene: Extruded Boardstock and Billet —All known XPS manufacturers are larger businesses (i.e.,

having more than 499 employees 4 ). Companies still using HFC

‐ 134a are assumed to transition to

hydrocarbons. Capital costs for a facility to transition to hydrocarbons are estimated to be

approximately between $4.6 million and $7.2 million per production line (ICF 2014). Each large business

is assumed to have three production lines (UNEP 2011b, 2013b).

Household Refrigerator and Home Freezer Manufacturing:

4 The small business threshold varied for specific industries based on their NAICS code.6  Rigid Polyurethane: (Household) Appliance

— Companies still using HFC

‐ 245fa and HFC

‐ 134a are

assumed to transition to either hydrocarbons or Solstice LBA. Hydrocarbons may be a more cost

‐

effective option over the equipment’s lifetime, but Solstice LBA is assumed to be adopted by small

businesses to help achieve energy efficiency standards and/or to avoid incurring upfront capital costs.

Specifically, the smallest businesses (i.e., establishments with zero to nine employees) are assumed to

transition fully to Solstice LBA, while other small businesses (i.e., establishments with more than 10 to

999 employees are assumed to transition 50% to Solstice LBA and 50% to hydrocarbons. Larger

businesses (i.e., establishments with more than 999 employees 5 ) were assumed to transition fully to

hydrocarbons. Capital facility costs to convert to hydrocarbons were assumed to be between $5.1

million and $6.1 million per facility (EPA 2013), but these costs are offset by annual savings of up to $4.8

million per facility due to lower blowing agent costs; savings vary depending on facility size (i.e., number

of units produced). No capital costs were assumed to convert to Solstice LBA (since this option is

considered to be a near drop

‐ in replacement for HFC

‐ 245fa), but annual costs per facility were

estimated to be between $2,000 and $3.0 million per facility, 6 due to higher blowing agent costs; annual

costs vary depending on facility size (i.e., number of units produced).

Commercial and Industrial Refrigeration Equipment Manufacturing:

 Rigid Polyurethane: Commercial Refrigeration

— Companies still using HFC

‐ 245fa and HFC

‐ 134a are

assumed to transition to either hydrocarbons or Solstice LBA. Hydrocarbons may be a more cost

‐

effective option over the equipment’s lifetime, but Solstice LBA is conservatively assumed to be adopted

by small businesses to help achieve energy efficiency standards and/or to avoid incurring upfront capital

costs. Specifically, the smallest businesses (i.e., establishments with zero to nine employees) are

assumed to transition fully to Solstice LBA, while other small businesses (i.e., establishments with 10 to

749 employees are assumed to transition 50% to Solstice LBA and 50% to hydrocarbons. Larger

businesses (i.e., establishments with more than 749 employees 7 ) are assumed to transition fully to

hydrocarbons. Capital costs to transition to hydrocarbons are assumed to total approximately $1.3

million per facility, while net annual savings are estimated to be between $1.3 million and $1.6 million

per facility, due to lower blowing agent costs; savings vary depending on facility size (i.e., number of

units produced). No capital costs are assumed to convert to Solstice LBA (since this option is considered

to be a near drop

‐ in replacement for HFC

‐ 245fa), but annual costs per facility are estimated to be

between $500 and $754,000 per facility, 8 due to higher blowing agent costs; annual costs vary

depending on facility size (i.e., number of units produced) (EPA 2013).

Urethane and Other Foam Product (Except Polystyrene) Manufacturing:

 Rigid Polyurethane: Sandwich

— Companies still using HFC

‐ 134a are assumed to transition to

hydrocarbons. Small businesses are assumed to produce foams containing approximately 13.3 MT of

5 Ibid.

6 Depending on the number of appliances assumed to be manufactured per facility and the cost of Solstice LBA (which was

assumed to range from $14 to $17 per kilogram).

7 The small business threshold varied for specific industries based on their NAICS code.

8 Depending on the number of appliances assumed to be manufactured per facility and the cost of Solstice LBA (which was

assumed to range from $14 to $17 per kilogram).7 blowing agent annually, and incur one

‐ time capital costs for conversion between $183,000 and

$220,000 (UNEP 2012, UNEP 2013a), offset partially by anticipated annual savings due to lower blowing

agent costs (EPA 2013). Larger businesses (i.e., establishments with more than 499 employees 9 ) are

assumed to have a higher production volume, using 450 MT of blowing agent annually, and incur one

‐

time capital conversion costs between $336,000 and $403,000, offset by anticipated annual savings of

$470,000 due to lower blowing agent costs (EPA 2013).

 Rigid Polyurethane: Marine Flotation Foam —It was assumed that companies still using HFC

‐ 134a would

transition to hydrocarbons (i.e., pentane) and HFO/water blends. The smaller marine flotation foam

manufacturers (i.e., those with less than 10 employees) are expected to transition to HFO/water

systems. Of the remaining entities, 50% would be expected to transition to pentane blowing agents and

the remaining 50% to HFO/water systems.

Capital costs for transitioning to HFO/water systems were assumed to be between $210,000 and

$253,000 per facility, covering the cost of formulation development and compliance testing. Incremental

annual operating costs were conservatively estimated to be between $97,000 and $116,000 per facility,

due to higher blowing agent costs (EPA 2013). 10

Capital costs for transitioning to pentane blowing agents were assumed to be between $210,000 and

$632,000 per facility (UNEP 2010c). Incremental annual operating costs were assumed to be zero; while

an increase in operating costs may be experienced associated with the use of hydrocarbons—due to the

need for raw materials for fire retardants—these costs are not expected to outweigh the annual savings

associated with the lower blowing agent cost.

 Rigid Polyurethane and Polyisocyanurate Laminated Boardstock

— Companies using HFC

‐ 134a or HFC

‐

245fa are assumed to transition to hydrocarbons. Small businesses are assumed to produce foams

containing approximately 25 MT of blowing agent annually, and incur one

‐ time capital costs for

conversion between $432,000 and $520,000 (UNEP 2009, 2010, 2011a). Larger businesses (i.e.,

establishments with more than 499 employees 11 ) are assumed to have a higher production volume,

using 65 MT of blowing agent annually, and incur a one

‐ time capital conversion cost between

approximately $518,000 and $959,000 (UNEP 2009, 2010, 2011a). Both small and larger businesses are

assumed to realize annual savings due to the lower blowing agent costs.

 Polyurethane Integral Skin

— Companies still using HFC

‐ 134a are assumed to transition to CO 2

. Capital

costs are assumed to be between $184,000 and $220,000 for a typical firm (UNEP 2012, UNEP 2013a).

Incremental annual operating costs are assumed to be zero. 12

9 The small business threshold varied for specific industries based on their NAICS code.

10 Assuming Solstice LBA costs between $14 and $17 per kilogram.

11 The small business threshold varied for specific industries based on their NAICS code.

12 While an increase in operating costs may be experienced associated with the use of CO 2, these costs are not expected to

outweigh the annual savings associated with the lower incremental blowing agent cost.8 

### Commercial Refrigeration Assumptions

Cost assumptions for the commercial refrigeration sector are summarized below; for more detail, see Economic

Impact Screening Analysis for Regulatory Changes to the Listing Status of High

‐ GWP Alternatives

.

New Systems:

 Supermarket Systems and Remote Condensing Units —Some movement out of high

‐ GWP refrigerants

(e.g., R

‐ 404A and R

‐ 507A) in new equipment has already been observed in the retail food industry, and

industry pledges, such as those made by the Consumer Goods Forum to phase out HFC refrigerants in

newly purchased equipment by the end of 2015, may serve to accelerate the transition out of HFC

refrigerants. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that the retail food industry is operating

under business as usual conditions. As such, compliance costs are based on the assumption that end

‐

users (e.g., supermarkets) will use R

‐ 407A in new systems in place of R

‐ 404A and R

‐ 507A, and that the

incremental cost of using this alternative instead of R

‐ 404A or R

‐ 507A is negligible (i.e. zero dollars)

since, given that the composition of R

‐ 404A and R

‐ 407A are similar, the cost of the refrigerant is

assumed to be the same (EPA 2013). Therefore, no annual costs or savings are assumed.

For businesses with an operational commercial refrigeration system that uses R

‐ 404A or R

‐ 507A, this

regulation does not require that they retire their system or retrofit their system to use a different

refrigerant. It also does not prevent them from maintaining or servicing their system. Therefore, end

‐

users are not considered to be affected until they choose to purchase a new system anyway, at which

point their choice of new refrigerant is impacted.

The regulation also does not prescribe that any business transition to a particular, lower

‐ GWP

refrigerant or alternative technology, so additional costs businesses incur by choosing a different

refrigerant/technology are not estimated in this analysis. For example, up to 50 percent of large

supermarkets might choose to replace an old R

‐ 404A or R

‐ 507A system with a new transcritical CO 2

system that would have much less impact on climate than a new R

‐ 407A system. Those supermarkets

are estimated to incur an additional total annualized upfront cost of about $979,000 and total annual

cost savings of about $72,000 compared to the cost of choosing conventional HFC centralized direct

expansion systems (EPA 2013). However neither the costs nor savings of such a choice is included in this

analysis because it is not required by the rule.

 Stand

‐ Alone Retail Food Equipment —Compliance costs are based on the assumption that each

establishment manufacturing the equipment will incur a one

‐ time capital investment cost of $150,000

to $500,000 associated with using R

‐ 290 or a non

‐ flammable alternative (e.g., R

‐ 450A) in place of an HFC

refrigerant, which results in an annualized cost of about $14,000 to $47,000 per affected

establishment. 13

 Refrigerated Vending Machines —Compliance costs are based on the assumption that each

establishment manufacturing the equipment will incur a one

‐ time capital investment cost of $100,000

13 Using a 7% discount rate.9 to $250,000 associated with using CO 2 in place of an HFC refrigerant, which results in an annualized cost

of about $9,400 to $23,600 per affected establishment. 14

Retrofits:

 Supermarket Systems and Remote Condensing Units —In the absence of this regulation, this analysis

estimates that a number of companies would have CFC

‐ 12, R

‐ 502, or HCFC

‐ 22 supermarket systems or

remote condensing units in operation in 2016 and 2018, respectively, that would be available for

retrofitting—with R

‐ 404A, R

‐ 507A, or R

‐ 422D being the preferred retrofit refrigerant—and would thus

be affected by this regulation.

Compliance costs are based on the assumption that end

‐ users would use R

‐ 407A as the retrofit

refrigerant in place of R

‐ 404A and R

‐ 507A, and that the incremental cost of using this alternative instead

of R

‐ 404A or R

‐ 507A is negligible (i.e. zero dollars) based on cost assumptions discussed above (EPA

2013). The EPA (2013) also assumes that there is a one

‐ time conversion cost associated with performing

a refrigerant retrofit on a remote retail food system. However, since this regulation does not require

end

‐ users to retrofit their equipment, but rather prohibits the use of certain refrigerants to be used as a

retrofit, the labor costs associated with performing the retrofit itself are not a compliance cost of the

rulemaking. Thus, these costs are not included in this analysis.

 Stand

‐ Alone Retail Food Equipment and Refrigerated Vending Machines —This analysis assumes that

stand

‐ alone equipment using CFC

‐ 12, R

‐ 502, or HCFC

‐ 22 in operation by 2016 would not retrofit this

equipment due to the high costs of retrofitting equipment relative to the cost of purchasing a new unit,

and hence, would not need to be retrofitted. With regard to retrofitting for vending machines, based on

the lifetime of the equipment and the direct transition from CFCs to HFCs in this end

‐ use before 1996,

the analysis assumes that no vending machines will have CFC

‐ 12, R

‐ 502, or HCFC

‐ 22 systems in

operation in 2016 that would be available for retrofitting and hence, would not need to be retrofitted.



## Results

Using the methodology and additional assumptions described above, Table 2 below summarizes the estimated

number of businesses potentially affected by the rule as well as the estimated annualized costs by sector at a 7%

discount rate. Table 3 summarizes the estimated annualized costs by sector at a 3% discount rate. As shown,

while about 645,000 businesses are potentially subject to this rule, the analysis estimates that the rule is

expected to result in changes in costs for less than 0.1% (or fewer than 200) of these businesses.

Using a 7% discount rate, total annualized compliance costs across affected businesses are estimated to range

from $28.0 million to $50.6 million; total annual savings are estimated be about $19.3 million; thus annualized

net compliance costs are estimated to range from $8.7 million to $42.7 million. Using a 3% discount rate, total

annualized compliance costs across affected businesses are estimated to range from $19.5 million to $37.8

million; total annual savings are estimated be about $19.3 million; thus annualized net compliance costs are

estimated to range from $0.2 million to $31.9 million.

14 Ibid.10 The majority of potentially affected businesses are in the commercial refrigeration sector, but it is important to

note that these businesses will not be affected in a single year; instead, a small proportion of businesses are

expected to be affected in each year over a 15 to 20 year period, as existing retail food equipment reaches end

‐

of

‐ life and businesses make choices about which alternative refrigerant to use in new systems or retrofits. Even

if these businesses are affected, EPA assumes that most of them will switch to R

‐ 407A. Since the composition of

R

‐ 404A and R

‐ 407A are similar, the cost of the refrigerant is the same. Therefore, no annual costs or savings are

assumed for this change.11Table2:EstimatedComplianceCostoftheRegulatoryChangesusinga7%DiscountRateSectorEstimatedNumberofBusinessesPotentiallyImpactedbytheRuleHigherLowerAnnualizedUpfrontCostsaAnnualSavingsbAnnualizedNetCostsbAnnualizedUpfrontCostsaAnnualSavingsbAnnualizedNetCostsbMotorVehicleAirConditioning‐Exportse240$8,760,000$0$8,760,000$0$0$0Aerosols<10$1,040,000($5,250,000)$0d$250,000($5,250,000)($5,000,000)Foams120$38,990,000($14,090,000)$32,120,000$27,200,000($14,090,000)$13,110,000Polystyrenefoamproductmanufacturing<10$27,490,000$0$27,490,000$17,640,000$0$17,640,000Householdrefrigeratorandfreezermanufacturing<10$3,090,000($6,600,000)$0d$2,580,000($6,600,000)($4,020,000)Commercialandindustrialrefrigerationequipmentmanufacturing50$3,760,000($7,480,000)$0d$3,130,000($7,480,000)($4,350,000)Urethaneandotherfoamproduct(exceptpolystyrene)manufacturing60$4,640,000($10,000)$4,630,000$3,850,000($10,000)$3,840,000CommercialRefrigeration644,500c$1,800,000$0$1,800,000$570,000$0$570,000Newequipment474,900$1,800,000$0$1,800,000$570,000$0$570,000Supermarketsystems29,300$0$0$0$0$0$0Remotecondensingunits445,500$0$0$0$0$0$0Stand‐aloneequipment30$1,520,000$0$1,520,000$450,000$0$450,000Vendingmachines10$280,000$0$280,000$110,000$0$110,000Retrofits169,600$0$0$0$0$0$0Supermarketsystems10,500$0$0$0$0$0$0Remotecondensingunits159,100$0$0$0$0$0$0Stand‐aloneequipment0$0$0$0$0$0$0Vendingmachines0$0$0$0$0$0$0ALLSECTORS644,800$50,590,000($19,340,000)$42,690,000$28,030,000($19,340,000)$8,680,000Totalsmaynotsumduetoindependentrounding.aIncludesannualizedupfrontcapitalcostsaswellasrecurringannualcosts.bSavingsareshownasnegativevalues;costsareshownaspositivevalues.cItispossiblethatsomebusinesseswillbeaffectedformultipletypesofequipment,resultinginalowertotalnumberofdiscretebusinessesaffectedbytherule.However,sinceitisnotknownhowmanybusinesseswouldbeaffectedbymultipleequipmenttypes,thetotalmaximumnumberofbusinessesthatcouldbeaffectedisshown.dAnnualizednetcostshavebeenroundedtozeroratherthananegativeannualizednetcostforthehigherestimate.Theroundingassumesthatatleastsomeportionoftheindustrywouldhavemadethechangeevenintheabsenceoftheregulation.eCostsareestimatedonapervehiclebasisandareassumedforasubsetoftheexportmarketonly.12Table3:EstimatedComplianceCostoftheRegulatoryChangesusinga3%DiscountRateTotalsmaynotsumduetoindependentrounding.aIncludesannualizedupfrontcapitalcostsaswellasrecurringannualcosts.bSavingsareshownasnegativevalues;costsareshownaspositivevalues.cAnnualizednetcostshavebeenroundedtozeroratherthananegativeannualizednetcostforthehigherestimate.Theroundingassumesthatatleastsomeportionoftheindustrywouldhavemadethechangeevenintheabsenceoftheregulation.dCostsareestimatedonapervehiclebasisandareassumedforasubsetoftheexportmarketonly.SectorHigherLowerAnnualizedUpfrontCostsaAnnualSavingsbAnnualizedNetCostsbAnnualizedUpfrontCostsaAnnualSavingsbAnnualizedNetCostsbMotorVehicleAirConditioning–Exportsd$8,760,000$0$8,760,000$0$0$0Aerosols$860,000($5,250,000)$0c$210,000($5,250,000)($5,040,000)Foams$26,940,000($14,090,000)$21,860,000$18,910,000($14,090,000$4,820,000Polystyrenefoamproductmanufacturing$18,400,000$0$18,400,000$11,810,000$0$11,810,000Householdrefrigeratorandfreezermanufacturing$2,280,000($6,600,000)$0c$1,900,000($6,600,000)($4,700,000)Commercialandindustrialrefrigerationequipmentmanufacturing$2,790,000($7,480,000)$0c$2,320,000($7,480,000)($5,160,000)Urethaneandotherfoamproduct(exceptpolystyrene)manufacturing$3,480,000($10,000)$3,470,000$2,890,000($10,000)$2,880,000CommercialRefrigeration$1,280,000$0$1,280,000$400,000$0$400,000Newequipment$1,280,000$0$1,280,000$400,000$0$400,000Supermarketsystems$0$0$0$0$0$0Remotecondensingunits$0$0$0$0$0$0Stand‐aloneequipment$1,080,000$0$1,080,000$320,000$0$320,000Vendingmachines$200,000$0$200,000$80,000$0$80,000Retrofits$0$0$0$0$0$0Supermarketsystems$0$0$0$0$0$0Remotecondensingunits$0$0$0$0$0$0Stand‐aloneequipment$0$0$0$0$0$0Vendingmachines$0$0$0$0$0$0ALLSECTORS$37,840,000($19,340,000)$31,910,000c$19,530,000($19,340,000)$180,00013 

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