UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | pitino
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 BUREENSOS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela August 24, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95-156
M3-1(95)-7

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
July 1995
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $2.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $156.4 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. Over three quarters of the decrease was due to the motor vehicle and parts
industry, which was heavily affected by the growing practice of shutting down for two weeks in July. The July decline follows a 0.3 percent
June decrease and is the fifth this year. Year to date, new orders are 8.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decline, $2.8 billion or 7.7 percent to $33.2 bill mostly due to motor vehicles and parts. This
follows a 1.4 percent June decline and is the fifth this year. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $1.5 billion or 4.8 percent to
$30.5 billion. This follows a 2.6 percent June increase and is the first decrease since April. Electronic and other electrical equipment had
the largest increase, $1.7 billion or 6.5 percent to $28.C billion, due to electronic components and accessories. This follows a 1.9 percent
June decrease. Primary metals increased slightly to $14.4 billion. This follows a 0.7 percent June decline and is the first increase since
December 1994.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in July decreased $4.4 billion or 2.7 percent to $156.4 billion, following a 0.8 percent June
increase. This is the first decrease since April and the second since October 1994. Year to date, shipments are 8.6 percent above the same
period last year.

Transportation equipment, down five of the last six months, decreased $3.0 billion or 7.8 percent to $34.8 billion; led by motor vehicles
and parts, all industries declined. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.5 billion or 3.3 percent to $25.5 billion. This
follows 3.1 percent increases in both June and May and is the fourth decline this year. Primary metals, down three of the last four months,
decreased $0.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $14.7 billion. This follows a 1.2 percent June decline and is the fourth this year. Industrial
machinery and equipment, down for the first month since April, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $30.8 billion.

4. UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in July decreased slightly to $434.0 billion. This is the fourth consecutive
lecline.

Transportation equipment had the largest decline, $1.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $195.7 billion. This is the fifth consecutive monthly decline
and the forty-third in the last forty-seven months. Primary metals, down for the fifth consecutive month, declined $0.4 billion or 1.3 percent
to $27.4 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $72.8 billion. This is the first decline since
December 1994 and the second since June 1993. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $2.4 billion or 4.7
percent to $54.7 billion. Except for a 0.3 percent June decline, unfilled orders have increased every month since August 1994.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in July declined $0.2 billion or 2.9 percent to $5.3 billion. This follows
a 1.3 percent June decline and is the third decline in the last four months. Shipments were down $0.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $6.4 billion.
This follows a 2.8 percent June decrease and is the third decline in the last four months. Unfilled orders decreased $1.0 billion or 1.0
percent to $108.2 billion, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in July decreased $2.4 billion or 5.6 percent to $40.6 billion. This
follows a 0.4 percent June decline and is the third in the last four months. Shipments decreased $1.4 billion or 3.3 percent to $41.6 billion.
This follows a 2.8 percent June increase and is the second decline in the last nine months. Unfilled orders, down for the third time this
year, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $203.3 billion. cxcluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $2.6 billion or 6.6 percent
to $36.4 billion, the first decline since April; shipments decreased $1.1 billion or 2.8 percent to $36.9 billion, the first decline since April
and the second in the last twelve months; unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $98.0 billion, the first decline since May,

®@ REVISED JUNE DATA Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $299.0 billion
(revised from $298.7 billion); new orders, $297.1 billion (revised from $296.4 billion); unfilled orders, $460.0 billion (revised from $459.7
billion); and total inventories, $409.8 billion (revised from $408.9 billion).

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 31, 1995. The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled for September 27, 1995. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services. Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jul June May | June. | May- | Apr.- Juh June July
199: 1995" 199 Tuly | dune | ‘May 199: (995° 1994 | July9s/94
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments . . 156,450 | 160,857 | 159,612] -27] +08| +10] 133,420] 176,674] 126,385 $5.6
New orders 156,418 | 159,086 | 1597502 “17 03] +25 | 134671 | 170,647 | 126,414 +65
Unfilled orders | 434/006 | 434,038 | 435,809 00 “0.4 00 | 435152 | 433/901 | 426,002 4211
Excluding defense :
Shipments 083 | 154,413 | 152,983 09 127,664 | 169,757 | 120,221 +62
New orders"! 151101 | 153,611 | 153,954 02] 424 | 129946 | 165/415 | 121,622 +68
Unfilled orders’! | 5/851 | 324,833 | 325,635 : 327/081 | 324,799 | 313,725 +43
With unfilled orders
Shipments. 127,601 | 129,905 | 128,751 1g | +09] +17] 11140 | 143,184] 103,728 47.1
New orders 127/569 | 128,134 | 128/641 “04 04} 43.6 | 1123391 | 1375157 | 103,757 +83
Primary metals :
ipments 14,717 | 14,992 | 15,169 “12 13,206 | 15,873 | 11,650
New orders 14364 | 14359 | 14455 07 12622 | 14;600 1/899 +61
Unfilled orders | 2221.2 27449 | 277802 | 281435 22 27,657 | 28.241 | 26,293 5
Ingustrial machinery and equipme
Shipments. . 30817 | 30,981} 30,816 | -05 5 1] 26268] 35,604] 23,495] +118
New orders 30469 | 31,996] 31180] 48] 426] +29 5,623 | 36,142 | 24,720 43.7
Unfilled orders 72:839 | 73,187 | 212) -05 72190 | 72/835} 61,295 | +178
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 25,547 | 26423 | 25,627] 33] +31 3. 22,557 | 28,806 | 20,290} +112
New orders”: 27983 | 26282 | 26.79 +65 19] 441] 25907 | 27219 | 20,133 | +287
Unfilled orders 34743 | 52/307 | 521448. | +47 703) 423 | 35388] 52/038 | 46,256 | +19.7
Transportation equipment
Shipments. 34,795 | 37,750 | 37,332 3h] 35209] izes] 25997 3.0
: 33, 35/976 | 36/499 14] +30 | 237506 | 397246 | _ 23/325 +08
Untied orders’ | 1953681 | 197,277 | 199,051 ~04 | 195,762 | 197465 | 206,162 “5.0
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
‘otal
Shipments . 47993 | 49,489 | 48,514 +20| +13] 41,529] $6,904] 38,158
New orders 451868 | 48,422 | 48/663 O5| +76 | 39115 | 54,666 | 36,461 473
Unfilled orde 311,423 | 313,548 | 314,615 03 0.0 | 310,827 | 313,241 | 311,286 “011
Nondefense :
‘Shipments 41,626 | 43,045 | 41,885 428 35,773 | 49,987 | 31,994] +11
New orders "| 40551 | _42'947 | 43,115 04! +76 | 34390 | 491434 | 31,669 +856
Unfilled orders’: "} 203,268 | 2047343 | 2047441 0.0 202756 | 204;139 } 199,009 +19
Exgluding aireraft and parts :
hipm. 36,932 002 | 37,098 +24| +30] 31,793 | 43,813] 28018] +135
New orders 390 | 38,965 | 37,831 330 | +50} 30/943 | 44321 | 29°455 451
Unfilled ord 98042 | 98'584 7,621 97530 | 98380 | 84,680 | +15:
Defense :
Shipments . . 6,367 6,444 6,629 + 5,156 6917 6,164 66
New orders." ? 53317 5,475, 5,548 +73 43725 5,232 4,792 “14
Unfilled orders’: 1087155 | 109/205 | 110,174 -10 | 108071 | 109;102 } 112,277 37

(NA) Not available, * Revised.

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjused for wading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

7 Based on advan Sample, Exits of mana) shipments iments, and oder ae subj 1 spy eat al evn. One mane compen ‘of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
response and nonreporting, "Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details om survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992."

"The Capital Gods Industries include Nondefente: ordnance and accesories, scam engines an! internal combustion engines, contraction mining and maria banding eqipmen., metwortng, machinery. special ata
machinery, general and office ‘eating and service industry ‘and distribution
Complete sireraft, missles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts ships and tank components, railroad equipment, ind teach and gain oqmect

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments ‘New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Tuly | July 1994- | Year ago Tuly | July 1994-]— Year ago July | July 1994-

July 1994 | 1990-1994 | June 1995 | July 1994 | 1990-1994] June 1995] July 1994] 1990- 0 June 1995

Durable goods . 04 03 0.2 6: 3 06 04 01 0.1

Primary metals . 03 0.8 0.7 0.6 13 03 0: fi 05

Industrial machinery and equipment . 0.6 08 06 0: 3 0.6 10 02 01 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 0.5 0.7 04 08 16 0.8 0.1 04 03

Transportation equipment 15 ia 06 10 18 08 0.0 03 01

Nondefense capital goods . . 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 14 12 0.0 02 0.2

Defense capital goods 08 07 08 49 5.5 3.0 0.3 03 02

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders
175 ----------- eer reer eee ——_— [4.175
Shipments
165 165
155 4155
145 145
135 135
125 L 1 L L L 1 L L L L L L L 125
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
Jul. 1993 - Jul. 1995
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
49F------ eee rrr re er rr rr ee | 49
New Orders
aaL--------------- eee eee ee eee ee eee eee Shipments | } 44

39 39
34 34
29 L L 1 L L i L L i i 1 L L 29

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
Jul. 1993 - Jul. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.