ECONOMICS

NITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

u

BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 February 25, 1999
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB99-42

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(99)-O1

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
January 1999
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $7.7 billion or 3.9 percent to $203.4
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 3.4 percent December increase
the seventh increase in the last eight months. This is the largest increase since the 4.4 percent increase in November 1997.
Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent, the third consecutive monthly increase. New orders for January 1999
are 8.8 percent above January 1998.

and is

Transportation equipment, up for the third consecutive month, increased $7.1 billion or 15.4 percent to $53.2 billion; increases in
aircraft and parts and motor vehicle and parts more than offset decreases in railroad equipment and shipbuilding and tanks. This
follows a 2.5 percent December increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the last five months, increased $1.9
billion or 5.7 percent to $35.9 billion. This follows a 6.4 percent December increase. Instruments and related products, up three
consecutive months, also increased. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since October, decreased $1.2
billion or 3.1 percent to $37.1 billion. This follows a 7.6 percent December increase. Primary metals, down four of the last five
months, decreased $0.5 billion or 3.3 percent to $13.6 billion, following a 3.4 percent December decrease.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in January decreased $0.1 billion to $195.7 billion. This follows a 0.5 percent
December increase and is the first decrease since May. Shipments for January 1999 are 7.4 percent above January 1998.

Industrial machinery and equipment, down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $0.4 billion or 1.0 percent to
$36.5 billion. This follows a 0.8 percent December increase. Transportation equipment, down for the second consecutive month,
decreased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $47.7 billion. This follows a rcent December decrease. Electronic and other
electrical equipment, up seven of the last eight months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $33.7 billion, following a 1.7
percent December increase. Primary metals, up for the first month since August, increased 0.2 percent to $14.2 billion, following
a 0.4 percent December decrease.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in January increased $7.7 billion or 1.6 percent to $502.8 billion, the
largest increase since the 2.2 percent increase in November 1997. is follows a slight December decrease and is the first increase
since August. Transportation equipment, up for the first month since August, had the largest increase, $5.5 billion or 2.3 percent
to $248.7 billion. This follows a 0.7 percent December decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the last
five months, increased $2.2 billion or 3.6 percent to $62.7 billion. This follows a 1.3 percent December increase. [ndustrial
machinery and equipment, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $75.0 billion, following a
1.9 percent December increase. Primary metals, down ten of the last eleven months, decreased $0.6 billion or 2.1 percent to $28.9
billion. This follows a 0.4 percent December decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE_ New orders in January, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.8
billion or 11.1 percent to $8.3 billion, following a 31.4 percent December increase. Shipments, up for the first month since
October, increased $0.4 billion or 6.4 percent to $7.0 billion, following a 5.3 percent December decrease. Unfilled orders, up for
the second consecutive month, increased $1.3 billion or 1.3 percent to $97.1 billion, following a 0.9 percent December increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in January, up for the third consecutive month, increased
$5.8 billion or 11.2 percent to $57.8 billion, following a 2.7 percent December increase. Shipments, down for the second
consecutive month, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $53.7 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent December decrease. Unfilled
orders, up for the first month since September, increased $4.2 billion or 1.6 percent to $261.6 billion, following a 0.8 percent
December decrease. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $1.2 billion or 2.6 percent to $45.9 billion, the first
decrease since October; shipments decreased $0.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $44.8 billion, the third decrease in the last four months:
unfilled orders increased $1.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $108.0 billion, the second consecutive monthly increase.

© REVISED DECEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$344.3 billion (revised from $344.5 billion); new orders, $343.8 billion (revised from $343.5 billion); unfilled orders, $518.9
billion (revised from $518.3 billion); and total inventories, $466.9 billion (unrevised)

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estumates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 4 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for March 24, 1999 at 8:30
‘AM. See buck page for 1999 Release Dates. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-
1) (202-482-3870).



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jan, Dec, Nov. | Dec, | Nov] Oct- Jan, Dec, Jan,
1999¢ 1998 1998 | Jan? | Dec.’ } Nov. 1999 1998 1998 | Jan.99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 195,709 | 195,793 | 194,823 0.0 405] +05 | 171,620 | 198,393 | 159,937 +73
New orders: 203;425 | 195,712 | 189,193 439 434] +04 | 188.773 | 197/015 | 172138 497
Unfilled orders 502,764 495,048 495,129 +16 0.0 “ll 507,173 490,020 518,535 22
Excluding defense :
Shipments 188,701 | 189,206 | 187,869 03 +0.7| +06] 165,805 ] 190,807 | 154,692 47:
New orders "|: 195,163 | 188,276 | 183,536 43.7 +26] +07 | 180.236 | 186,677 | 164.910 +93
Unfilled orders 405,621 | 399,159 | 400,089 +16 0.2 -1.1 | 408,738 | 394,307 | 414;336 14
With unfilled orders :
Shipments ...... . 161,499 | 161,715 | 161,668 -0.1 0.0] +0.7 | 140,337 | 168,029 | 131,731 +65
New orders 222222005 2} 169;215 | 161,634 | 156,038 | +4.7 +36 | +05 | 157/490 | 166,651 | 143/932 +94
Primary metals :
Shipments. . : 14,248 14,224 14,286 | +02 2.1 13,535 13,001 15,000 98
New orders” | 13,623, 14,091 14587 33 +93 13,979 13,770 15,993 -126
Unfilled orders 931 29'556 | 29,689 21 +10 | 29289 | 28,845 | 35,331 7A
Industrial machinery and equipmen
Shipments... . 36,545 | 36,922 | 36,623 “1 -1.0 | 30,329 | 40,139 | 30,254 +0.2
New orders 37,112 | 38,286 | 35,593 3.1 +76| +03 | 31750] 40,982 31,101 +21
Unfilled orders 75,023 | 74,456 | 73,092 | +0.8 4 75,886 74,465, 74272 +22
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments ..... . 33,711 33,175 | 32,634] +16 +17] +13] 28,531 37,106 | 24,951 +143
New orders 35;897 | 33,964 | 31.933 457 +64 42 35,407 35,033 29,788 +189
Unfilled orders 62\652 | 60466 | 59677 | +36 413 12 | 64,625 37,749 58,143, +101

Transportation equipmen'

Shipments 47,706 47,892 48,324 -0.4 0.9 +0.6 42,803 46,661 36,878 +16.1
‘New orders. . . 53,244 46,152 45,024 +154 42.5 +03 $0,373 46,057 41,302 4+22.0
Unfilled orders . 248,745 243,207 244,947 423 a 250,154 242,584 258,941 34

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*

Total :
Shipments . 60,662 | 60,682 | 61,154 0.0 +04] 49,152 | 70.997 | 45,366 483
New orders 66,099 | 59.467 | 56,332 | +112 03} 57130 | 71,070 | 51,508 | +10.9
Unfilled orders 358,709 | 3537272 | 354487 | +15 213 | 360,797 | 352'819 | 369;574 24
Nondefense :
Shipments 53,654 | $4,095 | $4,200 -0.8 02| +06] 43,337 | 63,411 | 40,121 48.0
New orders "| 37/837 | 52031 | 30675 | +112] 427] +11 | 481593 | 601732 | 44.280 49.7
Unfilled orders 261;566 | 257383 | 259,447 | +16 -08| 13 | 262362 | 257;106 | 265,375 “Ll
Excluding aircraft and part
Shipments . 44gi2| 45,419 | 44,716 +16] -06] 36170] 52,766 | 34,304 +54
New orders 45930 | 47,172 | 43.775 +78] +17 | 38361 | 53.904 | 36,585 +49
Unfilled orders 107996 | 106878 | 105,125 +17] -09 | 1087792 | 106601 | 105,453, 43.2,
Defense :
Shipments... . 7,008 6,587 6.954 | +64 53 “1.6 5,815 7,586 3245 | +109
New orders 222022202 8262 7,436 51657 | +111 | +4314] -1L0 8'537 | 10/338 77228 | +18.1
Unfilled orders’: | | ii] 977143] 953889 | 95}0a0 | “+13 | 409] —-13 | 98,435 | 95,713 | 104,199 55

(NA) Not available. * Revise.

" Shipments and new orders are the ttas forthe period and are adjusted for urading-Jay and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders areas ofthe end ofthe period and are no adjusted for trading-day or ealeritar-month varianons

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
response and aonreporting. Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our mest recent annual
henchmark publication, Current Industrial Repors: M3-1(96), "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

The Capital Goods Industries inchde Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines. intemal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking, machinery, special industry
machinery, peneral industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
Complete aitraft. missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

‘Defense capital goods inciode ordnance, “communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Jan. | Jan, 1998- | Year ago Tan. ] Jan, 1998-| Year ago Tan. ] Jan. 1998-

Jan, 1998 | 1994-1998 | Dec. 1998| Jan. 1998] 1994-1998 | Dec. 1998] Jan. 1998] 1994-1998 | Dec. 1998

Durable goods .........-.- 0s 0.1 04 04 09 08 09 03 02 02

Primary metals . . : 02 04 0.5 08 07 09 03 03 03

industrial machinery and equipment... 09 09 08 08 13 0.7 0.0 03 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment boceees 0.1 09 09 08 15 25 04 0.6 08

Transportation equipment’ |). |: 07 03 14 44 1a 18 08 03 02

Nondefense capital goods « . 1s Ls 09 21 14 1 0.0 o4 02

Defense capital goods . 1.0 13 09 19.0 94 8.5 1.6 0.6 0.5

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign,
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

215 215
New Orders
205 fF- - - > rr rt rr er rr Shipments |-} 205
195 195
185 185
175 175
165 i 1 1 1 L 1 1 1 J, it i 1 L 165
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Jan. 1997 - Jan. 1999
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

59 59

New Orders

54}-| Shipments | ----------------------------->—— 7454
49f---------------5 +449
a 444
39 de 1 1 1. i" 1 L i 1, . 1 1 1 39

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Jan. 1997 - Jan. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.