UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | xan.
NN —_WwSsS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mORCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 . September 26, 1996
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB96-160

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(96)-8

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
August 1996
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $5.4 billion or 3.1 percent to $167.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.4 percent July increase and is the largest decline since April
1995. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased $2.2 billion or 1.6 percent to fi 29.1 billion, the first decline since March. Year-to-date
new orders are 6.0 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, led by declines in aircraft and parts, and motor vehicles and parts, had the largest decline, $3.2 billion or 7.9 percent
to $37.9 billion. This follows a 1.6 percent July decline and is the third consecutive monthly drop. Electronic and other electrical equipment,
down for the first month since May, decreased $1.6 billion or 5.6 percent to $26.5 billion; comm tion equipment had the largest decline.
Primary metals, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.4 billion or 2.7 percent to $15.4 billion, following a 1.6 percent July increase.
Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since March, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $32.4 billion. This follows
a 3.0 percent July increase.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in August increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $168.2 billion, following a 0.5 percent July
increase. This is the fourth increase in the last five months. Year-to-date shipments are 4.2 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $39.7 billion; a large increase
in aircraft and parts more than offset a decline in motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 1.7 percent July increase. Industrial machinery
and equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $31.9 billion, following a 1.0 percent July decrease.
Primary metals decreased $0.3 billion or 2.0 percent to $14.8 billion. This follows a 3.0 percent July increase and is the third decrease in
the last four months. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent
to $26.5 billion, following a 1.4 percent July decrease.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in August decreased $1.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $478.9 billion. This follows
a 1.0 percent July increase and is the first decline since April.

Transportation equipment, down for the first month since April, had the largest decrease, $1.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $240.3 billion, mostly
due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 0.8 percent July increase. Primary metals, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $0.6 billion
or 1.9 percent to $32.0 billion. This follows a 2.4 percent July increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up four of the last five months,
increased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $73.3 billion, following a 1.4 percent July increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased
slightly to $49.8 billion, following a 3.1 percent July increase and five consecutive monthly declines.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in August, up three of the last four months, increased $0.4 billion or 9.0
percent to $5.2 billion. This follows a 40.9 percent July decrease. Shipments, also up three of the last four months, increased $0.1 billion
or 2.5 percent to $5.9 billion, following a 7.8 percent July decrease. Unfilled orders, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.6
billion or 0.6 percent to $107.3 billion, following a 0.9 percent July decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August decreased $4.6 billion or 10.1 percent to $41.4 billion. This
follows a 7.2 percent July increase and is the second decrease in the last three months. Shipments, up three of the last four months, increased
$1.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $43.3 billion. This follows a 1.6 percent July decrease. Unfilled orders, down two of the last three months,
decreased $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $243.9 billion. This follows a 1.5 percent July increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
decreased $1.9 billion or 5.0 percent to $36.9 billion, the first decline since May; shipments, up three of the last four months, increased $0.3
billion or 0.9 percent to $37.5 billion, following a 2.4 percent July decrease; and unfilled orders, down five of the last six months, decreased
$0.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $98.3 billion.

@ REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July Figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $312.1 billion (revised
from $312.7 billion); new orders, $317.0 billion (revised from $317.6 billion); unfilled orders, $504.1 billion (revised from $504.2 billion);
and total inventories, $434.5 billion (unrevised).

OUR PRESS RELEASE INTERNET ADDRESS: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published October 3, 1996, The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled for October 25, 1996. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe
(1-800-848-8199), The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-457-1214) can provide content information and general guidance.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
¢ ns of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
A Jul J Jul i M A Jul A change
uy ul lune july; june- fay- 4 ul ug.
1998! 1996" 1996 | Aug? uly’ | “June 1996+ 1996" 1998 | Aug.96/95
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 168,239 | 167,703 | 166,902 | +03 +05 -0.3 | 166,426 | 140,530 | 158,797 +48
New orders”. 167,012 | 172;401 | 169,994 3.1 +14 -02 | 163,383 | 146,320 | 157,144 +40
Unfilled orders - 478,868 | 480,095 | 475,397 03 +10] +07 | 477;748 | 480,791 | 443,287 +78
Excluding defense
Shipments 162,375 | 161,983 | 160,697 +02 +08 160,720 | 135,461 | 152,878
New orders 161,792 | 167,610 | 161,885 3.5 435 12 | 15955 143,118 | 151,698 +51
Unfilled orders’: 371,538 | 372,121 | 366,494 02 415 3 | 372/028 | 373,239 | 341,489
With unfilled orders :
hipments . . 136,309 | 135,418 | 135,586 | +0.7 -0.1 -03 | 134,491 | 116,757 | 128,655 +45
New orders 135,082 140,116 138,678 3.6 +10 0.0 131,448 122,547 127,002 43.5
Primary metals :
Shipments .. 14,785 15,082 14,643 8 14,788 13,553 15,407 4.0
New orders”. ° 15,377 15,805 15,552 2.7 +16 -02 14,803 13,881 15,131 22
Unfilled orders 31990 | 31398 | 30,675 9 3 31313 | 31,298 | 28/050 +116
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments... . : 31,923 31,637 31,952 40.9 -1.0 +2.0 29,878 26,427 27,862
New orders ..... 32,412 32,630 31,688 0.7 +3.0 +03 30,400 27,326 7,910 +89
Unfilled orders - 73,263 7277 71781 +07 414 0.4 | 72,659 | 72,137 | 70,195
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments". . 26,492 | 26,578 | 26,966 03 - +1 26,057 | 23,247 | 25,520
New orders”: 26513 | 28,076 | 26.770 56 +49} 438] 25,756 | 26,181 24878 435
Unfilled orders 497831 49,810 | 48,312 0.0 $3.1 0. 50,307 | 50,608 50,752 -
Transportation equipment :
Shipments . . : 39,673 | 39,275 | 38,637 +10 +17 38,749 | 27,132 36,204
New orders... 37,868 | 417100 | 41,758 “79 -1'6 -13 35.981 28,363 35,606 +1
Unfilled orders ©... =| 240,273 | 242/078 | 240/253 07 +08 239,143 | 241/911 | 209/097 +1
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments 49,208 | 48,027] 49,190 | +2.5 46,360 | 40,854 | 43,732 +6.0
New orders. . : 46.593 50,800 | $1,030 83 -0.5 -0.7 | 42.587 2666 | 42.475 +03
Unfilled orders 351,186 | 353,801 | 351,028 07 349,210 | 352,983 | 316,882 +102
Nondefense :
Shipments... . 43,344 | 42,307 | 42,985 42.5 1.6] +04] 40,654 | 35,785 | 37,813 475
New orders”. 41373 | 46,009 | 42921 | -10.1 472 -4.6 | 38,713 | 39/464 | 37,029 +45
Unfilled orders’: 243/856 | 245,827 | 242,125 08 13 0.0 | 243/490 | 245:431 | 215,084 | +132
Excluding aircraft and parts
Shipments ........- 37,471 37,13: 38,047 | +0.9 24] +34] 35,201 31,392 | 33,219 +60
New orders 36,903 38.842 | 37/385 5.0 439] +26] 34,663 33,073 32/650 46.2
Unfilled orders <<: 98348 | 98" 97/212 -06 +18 07 | 97.982 | 98520 | 94,692 435
Defense :
Shipments... . 5,864 5,720 6,205 42.5 78] +34 5,706 5,069 5,919 3.6
New orders” - ° 5,220 4791 8109 | +90] -409] +264 31874 3,202 53446 28.9
Unfilled orders 107/330 | 107,974 | 108,903 -06 09} +18} 105,720 | 107,552 | 101,798 43.9

(NA) Not available," Revised

"Shipments and new orders are the totals fo the period and are adjusted for wading-day and clendar-mont variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for wading-day or calendar-month variations

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers” shipments, inventories, and orders are subject 10 survey ertor and revision. One major component of survey eror is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
response and nonrepotng. Since the survey panel isnot a probabiity sample, estimates of sampling error canot be Calculated. Further deals on survey design, methodology, and data limitations ae contuned in ove most recent anal
benchmark publication, Curent Infusrial Reports; M3-1(5), "Manvfactrrs’ Shipments, Invemories, and Orders: 1982-1995."

* The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment. metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equpmen, refrigeration, heating and servis indistry machinery, elctal transmission an distibuion equipment, electrialindusal appara, communication equipment,
Complete aieraf.. mises, and space vehicles, aircraft misils, and space vehicle engines and pas, ships and tank raikoad and search and vig

‘Defence capitsl goods include * ordnance, communication equipment, rca, missiles, space vehicles, and pus, ships, tanks and tank Components, search and navigation equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago ‘Aug. | Aug. 1995- | Year ago ‘Aug. | Aug. 1995-| Year ago ‘Aug, |Aug. 1995-

Aug. 1995 | 1991-1995 | July 1996 | Aug. 1995 | 1991-1995] July 1996| Aug. 1995] 1991-1995] July 1996

Durable goods . 06 03 03 02 04 06 02 4 01

Primary metals . : 0.1 02 04 O. 04 06 0.0 02 03

Industrial machinery and equipment .. 0.7 04 07 08 06 10 00 03 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment .. . 02 02 Os 06 0s 08 04 02 04

Transportation equipment’: 18 06 07 15 09 19 ou 01 03

Nondefense capital goods 07 03 06 10 04 14 1 0.0 03

Defense capital goods . 12 06 Ll 21 16 65 0.0 ol 04

Note; The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t



Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

190 190
New Orders
180 F- - - -- +r rr rr re rr er ee rr rere red Shipments |-| 180
170 170
160 160
150 150
140 L 1 L L L 1 1 1 1 L 1 1 1 140
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1994- Aug. 1996
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
§3F-------------- ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee eee New Orders |+{ 53
Shipments
a + 48

33 bn rn L n n L i L n n n n Li 33

Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1994- Aug. 1996

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.