U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-06

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

July 28, 2004

CB-04-127

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

June 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in June increased $1.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $191.7 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.9 percent May decrease. Excluding

transportation, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 12.2 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.2 billion or 4.2 percent to $55.5 billion, due to defense aircraft and parts,

which increased $2.2 billion. Fabricated metal products increased $0.7 billion or 3.3 percent to $23.3 billion. 

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in June increased $1.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $195.7 billion. This followed a

0.6 percent May decrease. Year-to-date, shipments for 2004 were 10.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Machinery had the largest increase, $0.7 billion or 3.1 percent to $24.0 billion. Primary metals increased $0.4 billion or 2.9

percent to $13.6 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in June, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $3.1 billion or 0.6

percent to $527.5 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent May increase.

Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $1.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $252.2 billion. 

Computers and electronic products, up five consecutive months, increased $1.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $136.0 billion. 

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in June, up seven consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent

to $271.1 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent May increase.

Computers and electronic products, up four consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $48.2

billion. Machinery, up seven consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $43.6 billion. 

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June increased $2.2 billion or 30.4 percent to $9.4 billion. 

This was the largest percent increase in defense capital goods since August 2003. Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 4.9

percent to $8.0 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $141.6 billion. Inventories increased 0.2 percent

to $19.7 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June increased $0.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $63.7

billion. Shipments increased $0.8 billion or 1.4 percent to $62.1 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.6 billion or 0.7 percent to

$227.8 billion. Inventories increased $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $107.2 billion.

! REVISED MAY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $360.9

billion (revised from $358.2 billion); shipments, $365.0 billion (revised from $363.6 billion); unfilled orders, $524.4 billion

(revised from $523.1 billion); and total inventories, $449.5 billion (revised from $448.7 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published August 4, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for July is

scheduled for August 25 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Jun May Apr May - Apr - Mar - Jun May Jun Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Jun 2 May r Apr 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 195,711 194,372 195,512 0.7 -0.6 -0.8 214,407 194,686 192,530 1,170,915 1,056,958 10.8

 New Orders 4

.............................. 191,659 190,250 192,067 0.7 -0.9 -2.7 204,732 189,509 183,096 1,156,891 1,031,303 12.2

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 141,608 140,634 141,965 0.7 -0.9 0.7 155,485 139,688 137,327 835,869 744,766 12.2

 New Orders 4.............................. 136,166 136,974 137,790 -0.6 -0.6 -1.7 145,974 136,507 128,439 819,940 715,048 14.7

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 186,131 184,602 186,086 0.8 -0.8 -0.6 204,104 184,960 182,693 1,112,821 1,005,387 10.7

 New Orders 4.............................. 180,843 181,609 182,748 -0.4 -0.6 -2.1 194,424 182,700 173,735 1,094,510 971,017 12.7

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 132,828 131,903 132,384 0.7 -0.4 -0.4 145,299 132,263 130,189 792,057 716,941 10.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 135,911 135,076 136,010 0.6 -0.7 -2.8 143,290 134,007 127,425 819,311 725,707 12.9

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 13,621 13,231 13,248 2.9 -0.1 -0.5 14,473 13,659 10,934 79,987 67,067 19.3

 New Orders.............................. 13,638 13,689 13,337 -0.4 2.6 -4.4 14,286 14,093 11,024 83,087 66,923 24.2

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 22,741 22,564 22,612 0.8 -0.2 -0.7 24,069 22,915 21,088 132,861 122,040 8.9

 New Orders.............................. 23,310 22,568 23,963 3.3 -5.8 -1.1 23,880 23,561 20,568 139,953 121,512 15.2

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 23,976 23,248 23,904 3.1 -2.7 -0.1 26,756 24,141 23,110 144,659 127,467 13.5

 New Orders.............................. 24,273 24,195 24,192 0.3 0.0 -4.1 26,017 24,913 21,833 150,179 126,376 18.8

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 38,357 38,153 38,766 0.5 -1.6 2.5 43,829 35,551 39,941 224,799 196,310 14.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 32,175 32,501 32,443 -1.0 0.2 -1.9 35,909 29,796 32,768 190,978 167,308 14.1

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,303 8,180 9,068 1.5 -9.8 9.7 9,967 6,705 9,281 48,498 41,621 16.5

 New Orders.............................. 8,800 8,689 8,615 1.3 0.9 7.4 10,420 7,728 9,411 48,554 42,456 14.4 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,750 6,955 7,068 -2.9 -1.6 5.2 7,737 6,815 7,692 40,607 35,708 13.7

 New Orders.............................. 6,298 6,589 7,887 -4.4 -16.5 20.2 6,274 6,333 6,564 41,360 40,473 2.2

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 7,135 7,295 7,071 -2.2 3.2 3.5 7,666 6,921 6,670 41,278 34,421 19.9

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,698 8,768 8,806 -0.8 -0.4 2.0 9,545 8,794 9,059 51,725 49,747 4.0

 New Orders.............................. 8,543 8,934 9,383 -4.4 -4.8 4.7 9,125 8,994 8,945 53,132 49,768 6.8

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 54,103 53,738 53,547 0.7 0.4 -4.7 58,922 54,998 55,203 335,046 312,192 7.3

 New Orders.............................. 55,493 53,276 54,277 4.2 -1.8 -5.2 58,758 53,002 54,657 336,951 316,255 6.5

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 38,210 37,580 38,605 1.7 -2.7 -4.5 41,302 38,918 38,294 241,933 226,656 6.7

 New Orders.............................. 38,495 37,986 39,012 1.3 -2.6 -3.8 41,266 38,998 38,016 243,075 226,204 7.5 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 6,326 6,608 5,487 -4.3 20.4 -6.7 7,348 6,342 7,060 35,241 33,550 5.0

 New Orders.............................. 6,209 6,751 5,889 -8.0 14.6 -7.8 7,204 6,357 7,024 34,229 28,207 21.3

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,677 3,664 3,514 0.4 4.3 -11.2 4,018 3,523 3,920 22,380 18,937 18.2

 New Orders.............................. 5,087 2,841 2,295 79.1 23.8 -9.7 5,016 2,248 3,651 20,458 24,912 -17.9

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 34,215 34,670 34,629 -1.3 0.1 0.4 36,813 34,628 33,195 201,838 182,135 10.8

 New Orders.............................. 34,227 35,087 34,472 -2.5 1.8 -0.7 36,757 35,150 33,301 202,611 183,161 10.6

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 70,115 69,683 70,679 0.6 -1.4 0.6 78,976 68,249 72,431 419,051 373,646 12.2

 New Orders.............................. 73,054 70,185 72,097 4.1 -2.7 -2.7 78,676 67,264 70,536 432,548 385,350 12.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 62,122 61,278 62,529 1.4 -2.0 0.8 70,548 59,847 64,336 369,465 329,880 12.0

 New Orders.............................. 63,699 63,013 63,908 1.1 -1.4 -1.3 69,863 61,718 62,497 378,018 333,114 13.5

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 59,709 58,539 60,199 2.0 -2.8 1.4 67,608 56,998 60,649 354,513 314,612 12.7

 New Orders......................... 60,664 59,940 61,128 1.2 -1.9 -2.1 66,328 58,663 59,398 364,087 322,788 12.8

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,993 8,405 8,150 -4.9 3.1 -0.7 8,428 8,402 8,095 49,586 43,766 13.3

 New Orders.............................. 9,355 7,172 8,189 30.4 -12.4 -12.8 8,813 5,546 8,039 54,530 52,236 4.4

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Jun May Apr May -Apr - Mar - Jun May Jun 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Jun2 May r Apr 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 527,467 524,384 521,211 0.6 0.6 0.7 529,670 531,679 489,445 8.2

 Total Inventories....................... 271,087 269,169 267,206 0.7 0.7 0.6 270,354 272,023 264,092 2.4

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 275,224 273,531 269,896 0.6 1.3 1.1 276,484 278,329 240,966 14.7

 Total Inventories....................... 202,732 200,938 198,876 0.9 1.0 0.6 202,386 203,427 196,754 2.9

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 367,173 365,326 361,024 0.5 1.2 1.0 367,426 369,440 336,185 9.3

 Total Inventories....................... 246,809 244,804 242,998 0.8 0.7 0.7 245,915 247,656 241,040 2.0

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 527,467 524,384 521,211 0.6 0.6 0.7 529,670 531,679 489,445 8.2

 Total Inventories....................... 211,229 209,787 208,497 0.7 0.6 0.7 210,759 211,732 207,548 1.5

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 18,737 18,720 18,262 0.1 2.5 0.5 19,102 19,289 14,315 33.4

 Total Inventories....................... 18,776 18,522 18,342 1.4 1.0 1.6 18,733 18,452 18,056 3.7

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,827 44,258 44,254 1.3 0.0 3.1 45,113 45,302 36,372 24.0

 Total Inventories....................... 32,708 32,414 31,929 0.9 1.5 1.6 32,833 32,732 31,403 4.6

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 48,392 48,095 47,148 0.6 2.0 0.6 48,402 49,141 41,329 17.1

 Total Inventories....................... 43,568 43,225 42,632 0.8 1.4 0.3 43,263 43,567 41,590 4.0

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 135,958 135,005 133,362 0.7 1.2 0.6 136,613 136,867 124,236 10.0

 Total Inventories....................... 48,216 47,537 47,411 1.4 0.3 0.5 47,892 48,412 47,257 1.3

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,625 8,128 7,619 6.1 6.7 -5.6 8,861 8,408 8,959 -1.1

 Total Inventories....................... 6,101 5,884 5,777 3.7 1.9 -1.8 6,036 6,153 6,104 -1.1 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 50,311 50,763 51,129 -0.9 -0.7 1.6 50,522 51,985 49,512 2.0

 Total Inventories....................... 10,670 10,722 10,766 -0.5 -0.4 1.9 10,480 10,965 11,123 -5.8

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,926 15,081 14,915 -1.0 1.1 4.0 14,822 15,242 13,813 7.3

 Total Inventories....................... 12,612 12,501 12,310 0.9 1.6 -0.2 12,674 12,916 12,507 1.3

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 252,243 250,853 251,315 0.6 -0.2 0.3 253,186 253,350 248,479 1.9

 Total Inventories....................... 68,355 68,231 68,330 0.2 -0.1 0.5 67,968 68,596 67,338 0.9

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,036 14,751 14,345 1.9 2.8 2.9 14,762 14,798 11,681 26.4

 Total Inventories....................... 21,458 21,181 21,131 1.3 0.2 0.3 21,234 21,314 20,053 5.9 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 104,388 104,505 104,362 -0.1 0.1 0.4 104,059 104,203 106,151 -2.0

 Total Inventories....................... 23,476 23,498 23,793 -0.1 -1.2 0.8 23,185 23,721 25,211 -8.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 57,726 56,316 57,139 2.5 -1.4 -2.1 58,848 57,850 61,939 -5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 11,659 11,584 11,595 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 11,778 11,460 10,739 9.7

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,384 12,372 11,955 0.1 3.5 -1.3 12,432 12,488 10,901 14.0

 Total Inventories....................... 46,852 46,739 46,252 0.2 1.1 0.3 46,991 47,348 45,941 2.3

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 369,412 366,473 365,971 0.8 0.1 0.4 371,294 371,594 350,415 6.0

 Total Inventories....................... 126,925 126,080 125,060 0.7 0.8 0.0 126,260 127,401 125,412 0.7

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 227,837 226,260 224,525 0.7 0.8 0.6 228,100 228,785 216,636 5.3

 Total Inventories....................... 107,193 106,381 105,556 0.8 0.8 0.2 106,410 107,644 106,594 -0.2

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 148,266 147,311 145,910 0.6 1.0 0.6 148,858 150,138 136,447 9.1

 Total Inventories.................. 90,360 89,449 88,414 1.0 1.2 0.1 89,850 90,724 88,533 1.5

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 141,575 140,213 141,446 1.0 -0.9 0.0 143,194 142,809 133,779 7.0

 Total Inventories....................... 19,732 19,699 19,504 0.2 1.0 -1.1 19,850 19,757 18,818 5.5

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.