ECONOMICS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
a=

Bz BUREAU OF THE
= WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 February 24, 2000
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB00-36
(B01) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(99)-01

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
JANUARY 2000

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $2.8 billion or 1.3 percent to $214.8
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 6.3 percent December increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.5 percent. New orders for January 2000 are 6.5 percent above January
1999,

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $5.5 billion or 13.2 percent to $36.0 billion. This is the
largest decrease since July 1997. Transportation equipment decreased $2.0 billion or 3.6 percent to $53.3 billion; decreases
in shipbuilding and tanks and aircraft and parts more than offset increases in motor vehicles and parts and railroad
equipment. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $4.7 billion or 12.3 percent to $43.1 billion. This is the largest
increase since February 1985. Primary metals increased $0.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $15.7 billion.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in January increased $5.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $211.9 billion, following a
0.8 percent December increase. This is the eighth increase in the last nine months. Shipments for January 2000 are 9.2
percent above January 1999.

Industrial machinery and equipment, led by computer and office equipment, had the largest increase, $3.7 billion or 9.6
percent to $42.1 billion. This is the largest increase on record. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three
consecutive months, increased $1.6 billion or 4.5 percent to $38.0 billion. Primary metals, up eight of the last nine months,
increased $0.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $16.0 billion. Transportation equipment decreased $0.6 billion or 1.2 percent to

.5 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in January increased $2.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $515.2
billion, following a 2.3 percent December increase. This is the seventh consecutive monthly increase. Transportation
equipment, led by aircraft and parts, had the largest increase, $3.8 billion or 1.7 percent to $230.9 billion. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up six of the last seven months, increased $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $82.3 billion. Electronic
and other electrical equipment, down for the first time since November 1998, decreased $1.9 billion or 2.3 percent to $83.5
billion. Primary metals, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $31.8 billion.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in January decreased $2.9 billion or 28.7 percent to $7.1
billion. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 3.2 percent to $6.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent
to $95.7 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in January increased $3.6 billion or 6.0 percent to
$64.5 billion. Shipments increased $3.5 billion or 6.3 percent to $59.8 billion. This is the largest increase since February
1996. Unfilled orders increased $4.7 billion or 1.8 percent to $260.2 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
increased $3.8 billion or 7.5 percent to $54.8 billion; shipments increased $4.0 billion or 8.3 percent to $52.0 billion, the
largest increase on record; and unfilled orders, up five consecutive months, increased $2.8 billion or 2.4 percent to $118.4
billion.

@ REVISED DECEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries are:

shipments, $367.7 billion (revised from $367.4 billion); new orders, $379.2 billion (revised from $377.8 billion); unfilled
orders, $538.2 billion (revised from $537.0 billion); and total inventories, $470.6 billion (revised from $471.0 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 3, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for March 24, 2000
‘at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1.

DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted

Not seasonally adjusted!

Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jan, Dec. Nov. | Dec.- Oct.- Jan, Dec, Jan
26007 1999 1999 | Jan? Nov 20008 1999 1999 | Jan.00/99
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
‘Shipments 211,910 | 206,182 | 204,430 | + +10 | 186,296 +93
New orders’ | 214;849 | 217,612 | 204,799 13 +12 | 199;802 +63
Unfilled orders 515,247 | 512308 | 500848 | +0 +01 | 521319 427
Excluding defense :
Shipments . 205,600 | 199,634 | 197,274 | +3.0] +12] +08 | 181,204 +99
New orders". 22: 207,750 | 207634 | 198,709 oo} +45] +20} 191°962 47.0
Untitled orders 419'574 | 417/424 | 409/404 | +05 20] +04 | 423,619 43.6
With unfilled orders :
Shipments . 174,594 | 169,903 | 168,782 | +28 +09 | 152,218 493
New orders 177533 | 181/365 ] 1692151 “2 +h | 165724 $5.7
Primary metals :
Shipments 15,982 15,758 | 15,574] +14 42.5 15.221 +12.0
New orders 15.724 | 15,463 15540 | +17 +06 | 15,956 +143
Unfilled orders 31776 | 321034 | 32329 08 “0.1 | 32,006 +96
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 42,091 38390 | 39,075 | +9.6 -1.0 | 34,938 +151
New orders. | | 4312 | 38378 | 30347 | +123 08 | 36956 $16.0
Unfilled orders’ 82/289 | 81.268 | 81.280 | +13 +03 | 83.231 +96
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 37,955 | 36,305 | 35,605 | +4.5 421] 32,495] 40,808 | 27,811 +168
New orders "| |) 36.021 | 411522 | 39352 | -13.2 49.7 | 351695 | 43,654 | 34.752 27
Unfilled orders! 83:506 | 851440 | 80,223 23 +49 | 86855 | 831655 | 64,747 | 4341
Transportation equipment :
Shipments ...........0.0- 49.540 | 50,126 | 48,326 “12 +14] 44,836 | 48,550 | 42.646 $5.2
New orders"! | 53318 | 35,326 | _44'809 36 “41 50/991 511 50,028 +19
Unfilled orders | 230,914 | 2275136 | 2211936 | #1.7 213 | 232/398 | 226,263 | 249/966 70
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments 66,147 | 62,828 | 62,394 | #53 07 73,454 +11
New orders. : 71630 | 70847 | 60.475 | #14 “55 82.867 6 | +106
Unfilled orders 355;919 | 350436 | 342.417 | +16 “06 350,100 | 360,825 0.6
Nondefense :
Shipments 59,837 | 56.310 | $5,238 6 -l ggsis | sais | 43012 | 4138
New orders 122. | 64'531 | 607889 | 54385 | +60 23.4] 54686 | 691879 | 47992 | +139
Unfilled orders: | 2607246 | 255552 | 250,973 70:3 | 261021 | 255,148 | 2627062 04
Excluding aireraft and parts:
Shipments |S: 48,021 | 47,911 + +02 09] 42,271 35 35,904] +177
New orders | nt 54:791 50955 | 48658 | +75 +47 05 | 460217 | 37871 | 37882 | 422.0
Unfilled orders "| | : 115,592 | 112,658 | +2. +26] +07 | 119,134] 115) 108°555 $9.7
Defense :
Shipments. 6,310 6,518 7,156 32 $8.9 3,092 7,539 5,494 73
New orders”: 7,099 9958 61090 | -28.7 -206 77840 | 12°88 81544 “82
Unfilled orders 95.673 | 94884. | otadd | 40.8 “12 | 97,700 | 941952 | 98.763, :

(NA) Not available,‘ Revised

"Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are wdjused for taing-day ad culemdarsmomh vacations, until orders ate as uf dhe end of che pes and arent adjusted for trading-day oF eakedarsmonth variations

2 Based am alvance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, atk! orders are subject (0 survey error an fevision, One major component of survey err Is nonsampling error, which melas errors coverage

response and nonreparing. Sinve the survey panel 6 no a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Furtber deus on survey design, methodology, snd dat

benchmark publication, Cutrent Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Iaventories, and Onlers- 1987-1996

The Cepital Gonals Industries include Nondefense
machinery, general ind

ial machinery, computer and office equipment, retsigeat

‘Complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft mussiles, and space Vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and

Defense capital goals include * ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, mi

es. space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components,

vations are contained i our most recent annual

ordnance and vecessories, steam engines and turines, internal combustion engines, coosirution mining and material handing equipment, metaiworking, machinery, special indus
ing ar service imlustry machinery, electrical transmission and distnbution equipment, elect
had vigation equipment

J industrial apparatus, vomounication eysipment,

‘and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders.

Industry Year ago Jan. ] Jan. 1999- | Year ago Jan. | Jan. 1999-| Year ago Tan. | Jan 1909-

Jan. 1999 | 1995-1999 | Dec. 1999 Jan. 1999 | 1995-1999 | Dec. 1999] Jan. 1999] 1995-1999 | Dec. 1999

Durable goods 04 i 06 08 12 19 0.5 0.6

Primary metals 0s 12 03 0.7 09 36 10 1.2

Industrial machinery and equipment 09 21 05 12 nl 05 03 10
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . Ll 16 23 18 29 39 13 12

‘Transportation equipment 0.6 4s 19 14 40 30 08 09

Nondefense capital goods 1a 28 6 14 23 14 03 07

Defense capital goods Lo 09 6 5.0 71 06 16 05

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple avers

for the months specified

es of the differences, without regard to si



Billions of Dollars

Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

225

215

205

195

185

225
New Orders
215 —F| Shipments - - - - >= > >> ot
205
195
185
175 1 1 1 at 1 1 it 1 L 1 dee L
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov = Jan

Billions of Dollars
64

Jan. 1998 - Jan. 2000

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

175

New Orders

59 | Shipments

64

59

Jan = Mar

May

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

Jan. 1998 - Jan. 2000

Jul Sep Nov

44

Jan

Note: Ali Charts based on seasonally

adjusted current

dollars.