ECONOMICS
ES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE

WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
October 28, 1998
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-203
(B01) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852
M3-1(98)-09

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE Goops MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
eptember 1998
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $1.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $192.1
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.0 percent August increase and is the
fourth consecutive increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.6 percent, the third increase in the last four months.
Year-to-date, new orders are 4.1 percent above the same period a year ago; new orders for the third quarter are 2.6 percent above
the second quarter.

ectronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $1.7 billion or 5.4 percent to
$32.8 billion, mostly due to communication equipment. This follows a 5.3 percent August decrease. Industrial machinery and
equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $1.6 billion or 4.4 percent to $38.1 billion. This follows a 0.5 percent
August decrease. Instruments and related products, up for the first month since June, also increased. Transportation equipment,
down for the first month since June, decreased $2.0 billion or 4.4 percent to $44.7 billion; declines in aircraft and parts and
railroad equipment more than offset increases in shipbuilding and tanks and motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 17.6 percent
August increase. Primary metals, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $14.1 billion,
following a 1.0 percent August increase.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in September increased $2.9 billion or 1.5 percent to $191.7 billion. This follows a
1.0 percent August increase and is the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.0 percent above the
same period a year ago; shipments for the third quarter are 1.5 percent above the second quarter.

Transportation equipment, up for the second consecutive month, had the largest increase, $1.8 billion or 4.0 percent to $46.2
billion. This follows a 9.5 percent August increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four months,
increased $0.9 billion or 3.0 percent to $32.1 billion, following a 0.1 percent August decrease. Instruments and related products,
3 for the first month since June, also increased. Industrial machinery and equipment, down four of the last five months, decreased

.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $36.4 billion. This follows a 3.0 percent August decrease. Primary metals, down six of the last
seven months, decreased slightly to $15.0 billion, following a 0.6 percent ‘August increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in September increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $506.7 billion.
This follows a 0.3 percent August increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the second consecutive month, had the
largest increase, $2.7 billion or 3.7 percent to $76.1 billion, following, a 1.1 percent August increase. Electronic and other
electrical equipment, up two of the last three months, increased $0.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $59.4 billion. This follows a 0.2
percent August decline. Transportation equipment, down four of the last five months, had the largest decrease, $1.5 billion or 0.6

ercent to $251.4 billion. This follows a 0. percent August increase. Primary metals, down seven consecutive months, decreased

1.0 billion or 3.0 percent to $30.7 billion. This follows a 2.0 percent August decrease. Instruments and related products, down
for the eighth consecutive month, also declined.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in September, up for the first month since June, increased $2.2
billion or 44.9 percent to $7.1 billion, following an 11.2 percent August decrease. Shipments, down for the first month since June,
decreased $0.2 billion or 3.4 percent to $6.5 billion, following a 3.0 percent August increase. Unfilled orders, up for the first
month since April, increased 50.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $97.2 billion, following a 1.8 percent August decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in September, down two of the last three months, decreased
$2.0 billion or 3.6 percent to $53.3 billion, following a 9.0 percent August increase. Shipments, up for the first month since June,
increased $1.5 billion or 2.8 percent to $52.6 billion. This follows a 0.3 percent August decrease. Unfilled orders, up for the
second consecutive month, increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $267.3 billion, following a 1.6 percent August increase.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $2.8 billion or 6.3 percent to $47.6 billion, the fourth increase in the last five
months; shipments increased $0.7 billion or 1.6 percent to $44.3 billion, the first increase since June; and unfilled orders increased
$3.2 billion or 3.0 percent to $108.6 billion, the second consecutive monthly increase.

® REVISED AUGUST DATA Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $336.8
billion (revised from $336.7 billion); new orders, $338.3 billion (revised from $337.7 billion); unfilled orders, $530.5 billion
(revised from $530.0 billion); and total inventories, $468.5 billion (revised from $468.4 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published November 4, 1998 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled for November 24,
1998 at 10:00 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Se At Jul A Juk aT Se At yt. change
sept, Uy} jul ug.= july- fune- ye] ug.
19d8 1398 199% Sept! 2 Aug! July 19g 1908 7 |Sept.98/97
DURABLE GOODS
al ipments 191,655 188,740 186,907 +15 +10 +0.2 207,875 186,068 200,122 $3.9
New orders. 192,127 190,387 186,617 +0.9 42.0 +2.0 204,297 185,437 196,429 +4.0
Unfilled orders 506,717 506,245 504,598 +0.1 +03 0.1 501,359 504,937 493,075 417
Excluding defens
‘Shipments. 185,194 | 182,049 | 180,412 | +17 200,915 | 179,600 | 193,598
New orders 185,021 185,482 181,095 0.2 +24 42.1 197,007 181, 3896 191,047 43.1
Unfilled orders” 409,487 409,660 406,227 0.0 +0.2 406, 062 409; 970 390,910
With unfilled orders
Shipments. - 158,302 | 156,071 | 136,164] +14 o1| +03 | 172,654] 152,859} 166,143 43.9
New orders 158,774 157,718 155,874 0.7 +12 +2.5 169, 076 152,228 162,450 +41
Primary metals :
Shipments ... . 15,045 15,052 14,968 0.0 +0.6 0.5 15,445 14,959 16,379 5.7
New orders 14083 | 14420 | 14273 | 23] to] 42] 13733] 14149 | 16362 | -180
Untitled orders’ | Sin} soins | ste80 | 32312} So] 20] 2T] aas66 | 31278] a3tad7 | Cite
Ingustrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . 36,370 36,665 37,810 08 3.0 03 40,126 34,016 39,131 42.5
. 39,065 37,434 37,636 +44 0.5 +19 42,946 34,627 39,174 +9.6
Daria orders’ . 76, 147 73,452 72,683 +37 +11 0.2 75,322 72,502 73,332 42.7
Electronic and other
eletricat equipment:
Shipments 32,133 31,196 31,216 0 01 +11 36411 30,341 34,583
: 32763 | 317003 | 32'40] tsa] 33] 492] 3aear | 29560 | 324609 | 462
Unled orders 59442 | Se'gi0 | 38°13 T] 32] 428] S791] S982 | 34719
"Snes juipment
‘Shipments tse agus | 44ans | a4osse | +40 | +95 agai | 44278 | 44,609 | +103
New . 44:7: 46,770 39,768 AA +176 +11 47,392 45,727 43,187 49.7
hae “orders! . 251 BS (252,884 250,539 0.6 40.9 249,860 251, 7679 241,404 43.5
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments . . 39,090 | 57,862 | 57,811 40.1 -13| 65,967} 54,283 | 61,366 +71
New orders . wee 60,429 60,243 56,285 +03 +7.0 0.7 67,003 55,297 60,305 +111
Unfilled orders ............. 364): 525 363,186 360,805 +0.7 04 361,781 360,745 351,269 43.0
Nondefense :
Shipments $2,629 $1,171 51,316 42.8 03 21 59,007 47,815 $5,042 +
New orders. 53,323 55,338 50,763 3.6 +9.0 0.6 $9,713 51,756 54,923 +8.7
Unfilled orders . 267,295 266,601 262,434 +03 +16 0.2 266,484 265,778 249,104
Eguding lrcraft and parts:
44,344 43, 44,124 +16 : $0,121 40,790 47,435
Nee orders, . 7,551 44,752 43,708 +63 424 -16 53,340 41,652 48,410 +10.2
Unfilled orders... 108,604 105,397 104,31 +3.0 1 - 107,793 104,574 101,084
Defense :
Shipments. . 6461} 661 | 649s | 34] +30] +30] 6960] sep] 6.524] 467
New orders 7,106 4,905 5,522 +44.9 112 24 7,290 3,541 5,382 +355
Unfilled orders’ | 97230 | 96583 | 98371 | “#07 | “8] 110 | 95297 | 943967 | 1024105 “67

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

* Shipments ans new orders are the tas forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calenar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are aot adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject 10 survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
response and nonteporting. Since the survey panel isnot a probability sample, estimates of samping error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations arc contained in our most recent anual
benchmark publication, Current Industral Reports; M3-1(96), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

Te Cont Gon Inari nde Nowdfere ; adaes and wears, seam egies an ties, al combat egies, onrutin ming and marl nig eipnet metalworking, machinery, special industry

‘general refrigeration, hesing a ervey Iachnery, clea anit and dsb eaipmen, etal instal spars, communkaton eqlpment,

Compl strat msi, and space veh: erat musics and sace veh cagees ta ars, ships and tank railroad and search and

fee capil goats ache"* ordnance, communicaion equipment acta, msiks, space wehis, and pars, sh, unis and tank componca, seuch and navigaion epment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Sept. [Sept 1997- | Vear ago Sept. | Sept. 1997-] Year ago Sept, [Sept. 1997-

Sept. 1997 | 1993-1997 | Aug. 1998 | Sept. 1997 | 1993-1997 | Aug. 1998| Sept. 1997] 1993-1997] Aug. 1998

Durable goods 03 0.2 03 0.7 03 08 01 0.1 0.2

Primary metals . + 02 0.3 04 0.6 13 08 0.1 0.5 03

Industrial machinery and equipment’. 03 07 07 03 09 07 0.0 ol 02
Electronic ‘and other

electrical equipment 03 04 08 01 08 23 Ol 04 07

‘Transportation equipment | 03 08 15 20 13 17 02 Ol 02

Nondefense ia al goods 02 0.6 8 O01 12 1.0 ol 0.2 0.2

Defense capit 13 14 0.8 10.6 5.0 7A 0.1 0.1 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthily averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t:
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

205 205
New Orders

195 - - ~~ - rr rt rr re eee 4 Shipments |] 195

185 185

175 175

165 165

155 1 1 i L i " L 1 L 1 1 1 1 155

Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1996 - Sep. 1998

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
59 59

New Orders

54F-| Shipments } - --------------------------------- +154

39 Lat n n n n n L n L. L lL i LI 39

Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1996 - Sep. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.