.S. tment of Ce
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Official Business PERMIT No. G-58

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NOTICE

Revised historical data for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders will be issued in
July 21, 1998. The revisions to the historical data are the result of:

e benchmarking the shipments and inventory data to the 1995 and 1996 Annual Survey of
Manufactures (ASM) data.

e adjusting new and unfilled orders to be consistent with the benchmarked shipments
and inventory data.

e correcting monthly data for late receipts, reclassification of reported data, and
revisions to previously reported data.

e updating the seasonal adjustment factors for all series.
The publication will include data from 1987-December 1997. An accompanying press release

will include the revised 1998 January - May data. Please call Kathy Menth on (301) 457-4832
with questions.



ECONOMICS

UN AND
STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION

= 2 BUREAU OF THE

i= CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

For Data - (301) 457-4673 June 24, 1998

For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-111

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(98)-05

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

May 1998
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $4.9 billion or 2.6 percent to $184.3 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.6 percent April increase and is the first

decrease since February. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.3 percent, the second consecutive monthly

decrease. Year-to-date, new orders are 5.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since February, had the largest decrease, $2.1 billion or 6.8
percent to $29.7 billion, due to electronic components. This follows a 1.9 percent April increase. Transportation equipment, down
three of the last four months, decreased $1.6 billion or 3.5 percent to $43.7 billion; decreases, led by aircraft and parts, more than
offset increases, led by motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 7.5 Percent April increase. Primary metals, down two of the last
three months, decreased $0.6 billion or 4.1 percent to $14.6 billion, following a 3.7 percent April increase. Industrial machinery
and equipment, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $36.2 billion. This follows a 2.0
percent April decrease.

©@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in May decreased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $186.7 billion. This follows a 1.8
percent April decrease and is the second consecutive monthly decrease. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.7 percent above the same

period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, down four of the last five months, had the largest decrease, $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to
$30.0 billion, following a 2.1 percent April decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the second consecutive
month, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $36.5 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent April decrease. Primary metals, down
for the third consecutive month, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $14.9 billion, following a 1.5 percent April decrease.
Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $44.9 billion; increases, led by
motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts, more than offset a decrease in shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 2.6 percent
April decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in May decreased $2.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $512.6 billion. This
follows a 0.4 percent April increase and is the third decrease in the last four months. Transportation equipment, down three of the
last four months, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $258.5 billion, due to aircraft and parts and shipbuilding and tanks. This
follows a 0.3 percent April increase. Primary metals decreased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $32.9 billion. This follows a 0.2
percent April increase and is the fourth decrease in the last five months. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.3
billion or 0.5 percent to $57.9 billion. This follows a 2.6 percent April increase and is the first decline since February.

Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $73.4 billion,
following a 0.1 percent April decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in May, down three of the last four months, decreased $1.4 billion
or 20.6 percent to $5.5 billion, following a 38.3 percent April increase. Shipments, down for the first month since December,
decreased $0.2 billion or 2.3 percent to $6.6 billion, following a 0.4 percent April increase. Unfilled orders, down three of the last
four months, decreased $1.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $101.3 billion, following a 0.2 percent April increase.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in May, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.8
billion or 1.6 percent to $50.0 billion, following a 1.9 percent April increase. Shipments, up five of the last six months, increased
$0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $50.2 billion. This follows a 1.9 percent April decrease. Unfilled orders, down three of the last four
months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $267.0 billion, following a 0.3 percent April increase. Excluding aircraft and
parts, new orders increased $0.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $42.2 billion, the fifth increase in the last six months; shipments
decreased 0.1 percent to $42.4 billion, the second consecutive monthly decline; and unfilled orders decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1
percent to $103.3 billion, also the second consecutive monthly decline.

© REVISED APRIL DATA Revised seasonally adjusted April figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $336.9
billion (revised from $337.8 billion); new orders, $338.8 billion (revised from $340.1 billion); unfilled orders, $540.5 billion
(revised from $540.8 billion); and total inventories, $461.4 billion (revised from $461.5 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS
Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published July 2, 1998 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for June is scheduled for July 29, 1998 at 8:30
‘AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Apr. Mar] Apts | Marz) Feb. May AR May
1998 1998 fay? | Apr’ | Mar. 199 1998" 1997 | May98/97
DURABLE GOODS
otal
Shipments . . 187,092 | 190,486 : 186,168 | 185,425 | 176,839 45.3
New orders. | 189.193 | 186,284 26 | +16] +03 | 180,297 | 189881 | 175,342 428
Unfilled orders 515074 | 512/973 “0. - 514384 | 520/255 | 500/042 429
Excluding defense :
Shipments 180,283 | 183,705 0.1 -19] +1 179,717 | 178,892 | 170,745 453
: 182215 | 181,237 19] +405] +04] 176388 | 182'962 | 171/400 429
Unvuled orders 412,653 | 410,721 703 | +05] -06] 412/055 | 4157384 | 390,474 455
With unfilled order:
Shipments. . 153,933 | 156,538 04 7] +1 150,895 | 150,006 | 143,372 $5.2
New orders 156/034 | 152/336 33 24) 0. 1453024 | 154462 | 141'875 422
Primary metals :
Shipihents 15,141 15,368 “17 -5|  -09] 15.220] 15,738 | 15,655 28
New orders”: 15193 | 14%655 “411 437] +53] 14208] 15368 | 15,544 8.6
Unfilled orders’ | 337213 | 33,161 09} +02] 3 337328 | 34/340 | 31,553 +56
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . : : 36,730 | 36,818 07 02 35,358 | 35,495 | 32,427 +9.0
New orders”. |): 36659 | 37/416 “12 20 | +22 | 34792 | 35,242 | 32.280 +78
Unfilled orders’: 3,709 | 73,780 04 “0:1 73380 | 73/916 | 74,077 -10
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 30,331 | 30,980 - 28,717 | 28,071 | 27,779 3.4
‘New orders. 31°820 | 31,229 63 | +19] +11] 27325] 32!005 | 29/509 “14
Unfilled orders’: 38222 | 56,733 + 6} + 581059 | 59,451 | 54.197 TA
Transportation equipment :
Shipments . 44527 | 45,704 | + « 43.1] 46,268 | 46,180 | 42,738 483
New orders 43278 | 42108 35] 475 +06 | 437559 | 47097 | 39/590 | +10.0
Unfilled orders: | 259/654 | 258,903, 04] +03 214 | 2597166 | 261:875 | 252;320 42:7
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES’
Total :
Shipments . 56.881 | 57.803 00 423 | 53,976 | $3,150 | 49,721 48.6
New orders’ | 37°764 4°903 39 -0% | _50;878 | 54167 | 46,286 49.9
Unfilled orders 360'686 | 368813 “0.4 -0.8 | 369;409 | 372/507 | 361,563 422
Nondefense :
Shipments... .. $0,072 | $1,022 | +03 -l9{ +2: 47,525 | 46,617 | 43,627 48.9
New orders 50,786 | _ 49'856 6} +19] 0: 46969 | 47248 | 42344 | +109
Untitled orders’ 267,275 | 266,561 “0:1 +03 70.4 | 267,080 | 267,636 | 251/995 +6.0
Excluding aireraft and parts :
Shipments . 42,408 | 43,294 “0.1 +2. 40,054 | 39,027 | 36,914 +85
New orders | 4ug7i | 43/475 | +09 40: 39,624 85407 | 36,813 +76
Unfilled order 103;457 | 103,994 “O11 +02 | 103,388 | 103;818 | 98,190 +53
Defense :
Shipments... 00... 0005 6,809 6,781 23) +04] +434 6,451 6,533 6,094 +5.9
New orders” | 2! mt 6.978 5047 | -206 | +383] 55 3909 6.919 37942 -08
Unfilled orders’ : 102,421 | 102252 “U1 402 | -1.7 | 102;329 | 104,871 | 109,568 66

(NA) Nox available. * Revised,

* Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendat-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-momt variation.

> Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision, One major component of survey error is nansamp
reonte and nonreporing. Shee te survey panel sm apobabilty sample, estimates of sampling ear cant be
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96),

"Manufacturers" 8

5. Taventores, and Orders: 1987-1996."

ling error, which includes errors of coverage,
Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most resent annua

The Capital Gon Industries inchde Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery. special industry

machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, elect
eomplete aireraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pans, ships and tank comy

road equipment, and search and navigation equipment

ponents,
Defense capital goods include: ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

‘transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparan, communication equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments. New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry May | May 1997-] Year ago May ] May 1997-] Year ago May | May 1997-
1993-1997 | Apr. 1998 | May 1997| 1993-1997] Apr. 1998] May 1997] 1993-1997] Apr. 1998
Durable goods . . 0.2 03 02 0.5 0.5 Ol 0.2 Ol
Primary metals . . 0.2 03 0.0 0.7 0.6 01 03 03
Industrial machinery and equipment 07 06 21 08 06 05 02 02

Electronic and other

electrical equipment ... . 04 05 03 08 12 02 03 0.5
Transportation equipment | 03 08 24 16 16 03 02 02
Nondefense capital goods . 04 06 04 08 09 02 02 01
Defense capital goods . . . 0.6 0.9 08 3.5 5.6 0.0 0.2 03

Note: The
for the months specifi

ns are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
ied.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

205 205
New Orders
195 F--- - - rr rr tr rd Shipments |-| 195
185 185
175 175
165 165
155 L L L L L L 1 i i 1 il L L 155
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
May. 1996 - May. 1998
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

59 59

New Orders
54-| Shipments | ---------------------------------- 454

gg Lu n L i i n i n 1 L L L LI 39

May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
May. 1996 - May. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.