UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | «sm.
NN EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 men CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Gloria Cable June 23, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2512 CB94-100
M3-1(94)-05

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
May 1994
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $1.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $148.4 billion, followin;
a 0.1 percent increase in April, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This is the thir
consecutive monthly increase and the ninth in the last ten months. Year to date, new orders are 12.9 percent above the same
period a year ago.

All major groups except electronic and other electrical equipment and stone, clay, and glass products increased.
Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $0.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $36.5 billion, as an increase in aircraft and
parts more than offset declines in railroad equipment and motor vehicles and parts. Primary metals increased $0.6 billion or
4.7 percent to $13.1 billion, following a 5.5 percent decrease in April. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest
decrease, down $1.2 billion or 5.0 percent to $22.2 billion, primarily due to communications equipment and electronic
components. This follows an 8.7 percent increase in April.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in May increased $1.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $147.9 billion, the third increase in the
last four months. All major groups except transportation equipment and fabricated metal products increased. Industrial
machinery and equipment had the largest increase, up $0.7 billion or 2.5 percent to $27.1 billion, with increases in nearly all
categories. Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $0.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $37.2 billion, following a
3.0 percent decline in April. Year to date, durable goods shipments are 10.1 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in May increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $424.1 billion, the second consecutive
monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the eleventh consecutive month, had the largest increase, up
$1.0 billion or 1.7 percent to $58.6 billion, with nearly half the increase in computers and office equipment. Primary metals
increased $0.6 billion or 2.3 percent to $24.9 billion, the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Transportation equipment had
the largest decrease, down $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $209.1 billion, primarily due to shipbuilding and tanks. This is the
twenty-fourth decrease in the last twenty-five months. Instruments and related products also had a large decrease.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were up $0.7 billion or 11.9 percent to $7.1 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This follows a
28.7 percent increase in April. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 2.0 percent to $6.8 billion, following a 2.5 percent decrease
in April. Unfilled orders increased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $113.5 billion, the first increase since January.

Nondefense - New orders decreased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $35.6 billion, following a 0.8 percent decrease in
April. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $36.3 billion, following
a 15 percent decrease in April. Unfilled orders decreased $0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $198.9 billion, following a slight
decline in April. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.8 billion or 2.5 percent, the second consecutive
monthly decrease; shipments increased $0.7 billion or 2.2 percent, the third increase in the last four months; and unfilled orders
increased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent, the twelfth consecutive monthly increase.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed

estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 30, 1994. The advance report on durable goods for Junc is scheduled for July
27, 1994. ‘This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and
through the Census Burcau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog
Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-763-2074) can provide
content information and general guidance.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
May At Mar. | Apr. | Mar~| Feb. May ap May
199. 1994 1994 fay? | Apr’ | Mar. 1994 1994" 1993 | May94/93
DURABLE GOODS
147,884 | 146,687 | 147,388. | +08 05] +08] 150,636 | 146.951 | 134897] +117
148355 | 147036] 146906 | +09 | +01 | +0.7 | 150,202 | 147,872 | 128,752 | +167
424088 | 423,617 | 423,268 | +01 40.1 01 | 427342 | 427,776 | 441,732 33
Excluding defense :
Shipments... . 141,059 | 139,723 | 140,249 | +1.0 04] 40.7] 144,077 | 140,472 | 127,708 | +128
New orders 141295 | 140,725 | 142/004 | +04 0.9] +16 | 143,985 | 142,687 | 124.455 | 415-7
Unfilled orders 310,606 | 310370 | 309368 | 40.1 | +03] +06 | 313,297 | 313,389 | 315,919 -08
With unfilled orde
Shipments... . 117,374 | 116,165 | 116,630 | +1.0 04 14 | 116,783 | 113,870 | 105,404 | +10.8
New orders 1177845 | 116,514 | 116,148 ri} +03] +13] 116349 | 114;791 | 99259 | +172
Primary metals :
Shipments 12,569} 12,275 | 12,243 03] +08] 12.857] 12,595 | 11,409 | 412.7
New orders. || 137120 | 127536 | 13,259 | +47 55| +60] 13279] 12684] 10946} +213
Unfilled orders’ | 24870 | 24319 | 247058 1] +44. | 25906} 25484 | 23,721 +92
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 27,068 | 26.415 | 26,513 04] +06 | 26,813 | 25,836 | 23,02 +164
New orders 8,042 | 28019 | 27827 | +01 +07] 426] 27836] 27380] 23211 | +199
Unfilled orde1 581586 | 57,612 | 56,008 +29] +24] 58908} 57885) 50,8: +159

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :

Shipments. 22,265 | 22,134 | 21,431 | +06 40.7} 21808] 21,225] 18,435] +183
New orders 22192 | 2333 21,487 50] 487] +425 | 21268 | 23,203 | 17817 | +194
Unfilled orders’: 47,287 | 47360 | 46,134 02 40.1 | 477611 | 485151 | 421896 | 411.0
Transportation equipment :
Shipments . bene 37,220 | 37,676 | 38,852 -12 ~ +02 | 39,985 | 39,490] 36,797 48.7
New orders 36507 | 35,733 | _ 36,268 22 15] 33 | 38,763 | 37382 | 32,169 | +205
Unfilled orders | 2): : 2095119 | 2097832 | 211,775 03 “i 2093897 | 211119 | 231301 9
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments... . . 43,149 | 42,861 | 43,570 +2.0 | 41,750 | 40,580 | 38,971 +71
New orders | | || 42610 | 42158 | 41/029 | +11 428 | 35 | 40,633 | 39,303 | 33518 | +212
Unfilled orders: | 312;373 | 312/912 | 313,615 - -02|  -08 | 313,301 | 3147418 | 332,208 “57
Nondefense :
Shipments. . . 36324] 35,997 | 36,431 | #12 as| +18] 35,191 | 34101] 31,782 | +10.7
New orders 12: 35;5 35847 | 36,127 08 08] 07 4416 | 34.118 | 29/221 | +178
Unfilled orders’: : : 1983891 | 199665 | 199,715 “0.4 00] +02] 1991256 | 200,031 | 206,395 3
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . . | 31991 | 31310 | 30,898 +13 -0.6 | 31,033 | 29650] 26319] +179
New orders | 325151 | 32966 | 33,08 25 03) +33] 31192] 31373 | 26.202 | +19.0
Unfilled orders 817628 | 81,468 | 79;812 +21] 428] 81993 | 81834. | 71,505] +145
Defense :
Shipments ...... . 6,825 6,964 7,139 2.0 25] +29 6,559 6,479 7,189 8:
New orders" |!) 2 : 7,060 6311 4902 | +119] +287] -20.1 6217 5,185 47297 | +447
Unfilled orders 113:482 | 113,247 | 113/900 | +0.2 0.6] “19 | 1147045 | 114387 | 125,81 94

(NA) Not available.‘ Revised,

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

* pased om advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers” shipments and otders are subject to survey variably and revision, Sine the survey panel i not a probability sample, estimates of sampling varity cannot be calculated,
Furtber details on survey design, methodology, and data Imitation are conained in Our must recent annal benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(S2), “Manufacturers’ Shipmens, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992

tries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, constriction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
«

The Capital Goods

‘machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry ry, electrical ta and distribution ‘electrical industrial
‘and space vehicles, aircraft missles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank co railroad and search and navigation
‘Defense capital goods include ordnance, communication equipment, aircraf, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry May | May 1993-] Year ago May | May 1993-| Year ago May | May 1993-
1989-1993 | Apr. 1994 | May 1993] 1989-1993 | Apr. 1994] May 1993 1989-1993 | Apr. 1994
Durable goods 0.2 03 02 09 5, 0.0 Ol 0.1
Primary metals 03 05 0.4 14 1 0.1 04 05
Industrial mac! ind eq 05 06 02 09 6 01 02 03

Electronic and other

electrical equipment . 07 06 03 07 19 0.0 Ol 0.6
Transportation equipment 04 0.5 09 29 1.0 0. 02 Ol
Nondefense capital goods 0.6 05 03 34 0.7 0.1 03 0.1
Defense capital goods . . 18 09 2.1 10.9 64 0.1 03 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
165 165

New Orders
155 F- - - ~~ ee ee re ered Shipments |] 155
145 145
135 135
125 125
115 1 L 1 1 1 _ L 1 1 1 1 L 1. 415
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
May. 1992 - May. 1994
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45

New Orders

40 P-- - oot rr rr rr ett re errr Shipments |-} 40

25 beat r in nl L L n L n 1 n n

Lt 25

May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

May. 1992 - May. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.