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PERMIT NO. G-5S8

PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1998 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS!

SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report
Report Release Dates

Covering (8:30 a.m. release time)

Regular Report
Release Dates
(10:00 a.m. release time)

November 1997
December 1997
January 1998
February 1998
March 1998
April 1998
May 1998

June 1998
July 1998
August 1998
September 1998
October 1998

November 1998

Tues., Dec.

Wed., Jan.

Thur., Feb.

Wed., Mar.
Tues., Apr.
Thur., May

Wed., June

Wed., July

Wed., Aug. 26
Thur., Sept. 24 (10 A.M.)
Wed., Oct 28

Tues., Nov. 24 (10 A.M.)

Wed., Dec.

(10 A.M.)

Thur., July 2

(10 A.M.)

1998

1999


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | sittin
NI =—-VWSsS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mONCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 10:00 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 December 23, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97-208
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
November 1997
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $8.9 billion or 4.8 percent to $195.0
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.1 percent October decrease and is
the fifth increase in the last six months. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent, the second consecutive
monthly decrease. Year to date, new orders are 7.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $9.2 billion or 20.3 percent to $54.3 billion,
due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 6.6 percent October increase. Primary metals increased $0.5 billion or 3.2 percent to
$16.2 billion, following a 6.3 percent October decrease. This is the second increase in the last three months and the eighth this
year. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the first month since August, increased 0.1 percent to $30.2 billion. This
follows a 4.3 percent October decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.5
billion or 1.6 percent to $34.1 billion. This follows a 2.1 percent October decrease.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in November, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.4
percent to $182.9 billion. This follows a 1.0 percent October decrease and is the fourth decline this year. Year to date, shipments
are 7.6 percent above the same period a year ago.

Industrial machinery and equipment, down three of the last four months, had the largest decrease, $0.8 billion or 2.2 percent to
$34.0 billion. This follows a 1.1 percent October decrease. Primary metals, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.1
billion or 0.7 percent to $15.4 billion, following a 0.3 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment increased $0.3 billion
or 0.7 percent to $43.5 billion as a large increase in aircraft and parts more than offset a decline in motor vehicles and parts. This
follows a 0.2 percent October decrease and is the second increase in the last three months. Electronic and other electrical
equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $30.4 billion. This follows a 2.5 percent
October decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in November increased $12.2 billion or 2.4 percent to $516.3 billion.
This follows a 0.5 percent October increase and is the sixth increase in the last seven months. Transportation equipment had the
largest increase, $10.8 billion or 4.3 percent to $261.8 billion, mostly due to aircraft and parts. This follows a O8 percent October
increase and is the third increase in the last four months. Primary metals, up for the eleventh consecutive month, increased $0.8
billion or 2.2 percent to $34.3 billion, following a 0.4 percent October increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up four of
the last five months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $73.8 billion, following a 0.2 percent October decrease. Electronic
and other electrical equipment, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $55.4 billion. This
follows a 0.2 percent October decrease.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in November, up two of the last three months, increased $1.2
billion or 24.9 percent to $5.9 billion, following a 13.5 percent October decrease. Shipments, up for the third consecutive month,
increased $0.5 billion or 7.6 percent to $7.0 billion, following a 5.3 percent October increase. Unfilled orders, down for the
eleventh consecutive month, decreased $1.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $103.3 billion, following a 1.7 percent October decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE_ New orders in November, up for the seventh consecutive month,
increased $9.0 billion or 17.9 percent to $58.9 billion, following a 2.7 percent October increase. Shipments, up two of the last
three months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $47.3 billion. This follows a 2.7 percent October decrease. Unfilled orders,
up five of the last six months, increased $11.6 billion or 4.5 percent to $267.1 billion, following a 1.1 percent October increase.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.8 billion or 2.0 percent to $40.8 billion, the third decrease in the last four
months; shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $40.4 billion, the third decrease in the last four months; and unfilled
orders increased $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $101.9 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase.

© REVISED OCTOBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$334.1 billion (revised from $335.2 billion); new orders, $336.8 billion (revised from $337.2 billion); unfilled orders, $530.6
billion (revised from $530.0 billion); and total inventories, $452.3 billion (revised from $451.1 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published January 6, 1998. The advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled for January 28, 1998 (at 8:30 A.M.).

This renart ic available nn the daw of ieone thenuah tha Rannctmant af Pammnennta malian Fannnmtn Tulane Woot ANT a ay imam ta



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Nov, Sept. | Oct; | Sept- | Aug.- Nov, Oct, Nov.
1997 1997 1997 | Nov? ct’ | Sept. 1997 1997 1996 | Nov.97/96
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments + 182,862 | 183,632 | 185,496 | -0.4 -10] 424 | 182,521 | 188,392 ] 172,028 +6.1
orders 1957013 | 186082 | 186,210] +48 “011 0.0 | 193000 | 1937874 | 1727506 | +119
Uaed ores | 516,342 | 504,191 | 01741 | 424) +05] +01 | 512422 | 501/943 | 486/920 +52
Excluding defense :
Shipments. . 177,141 | 179,333 “0.7 “12 175,438 | 182,113 | 165,534 +6.0
New orders"! 181366 | 180.761 | +43] +03} 0.1 | 186.808 | 189:405 | 163,790] +141
Untitled orders” |: 3997832 | 395,607] 433] +11 4113147 | 399,777 | 379;766 48:3
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. . . 150,646 | 150,392 | 152,156] +02 -12] 428] 150,502 | 152,172 | 140,370 47:
New orders 162,797 | 1527842 | 152/870 | +65 00} 01 | 160,981 | 1575654 | 140/848] +143
Primary metals :
Shipmnents 15417 | 15525] 15,567] -0.7 -0: 15,126 | 15,883 | 14,495 444
New orders. - 16169 | 157661 | 16,709 | #3.2 63] +50] 15592 | 15;550 | 13;918 | +120
Unfilled orders 34310 | 33,558 | 33422 | 422] +04 S| 32/505 | 32129 | 27,719 | +176
Industrial machinery and equipme
Shipments. 33,968 | 34,745] 35,126 | -2.2 432 | 32,285 | 33,751 | 30,464
New orders”: 34065 | 34,613 | 35,361 “16 21) 419] 337142 | 34665 | 31,010 +69
Unfilled orders 3,804 | 73,707 | 73,839 | +011 02 74/576 | 73,719 | 73,372
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 30,433 | 30,233 | 31,007 2.5 31,735 | 30,423 | 29,403 +19
Now o: : 30155 | 30110] 31461} +04 43] -78| 29920 | 33,440 | 28,242 $59
Uaned Srteis 35/384 662 | 55.785 “02 35,459 | 57.274 +456
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 43,464] 43,165 | 43,266 | +0.7 02] +121 43,901 | 45,419] 40,958 +72
54/292 | 451126 | 42324] +203] +66] -17] _sa'g46 | 47289 | _ 43, 4259
Uatlied Srueis 261:760 | 250/932 | 2483971 | +43 | +08 259'941 | 248'996 | 250/660
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments . 54,290 | 53,640 | s4eas | 41.2 43.1] 53,180} $1,152 | 48,773 $9.0
New orders 64778 | 54652 | 54074 | +185] +11] +15 | 64224 | _53;001 | 511462 | 424.8
Unfilled orders 370,405 | 359/917 | 358905 | +29] +403] -02| 368:710 | 357,666 | 358,274 429
Nondefense :
Shipments. 47,3 47,149 | 48,482 | +03 27) +34 | 46097 | 44,873 | 42,279 49.0
New orders 581887 | 491936 | 48.625 | +179] +27] +13] _581032 | 48622 | 42746 | 435.8
Unfilled orde1 2677142 | 255/558 | 252:771 | +45] 41:1] 40:1 | 267:435 | 255,500 | 251,120 465
Exgluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments . 40447 | 40,695 | 41,251 0.6 “13 39.056 | 36,532
New orders. ° 2: 40815 | 41,632 | 42/544 “2.0 21) 461] 40127 | 40,955 560 498
Unfilled orders! 101,861 | 101493 | 100556 | +04) +09 101'433 | 96487
Defense :
Shipments. 6,987 6,491 6163} +76] 453 7.083 6.279 6,494 49.1
New orders 5,891 4,716 5449] 4249] 135] 42:7 6,192 4469 8.716 -29.0
Unfilled orde 103:263 | 104/359 | 106,134 “11 “17 | 0.7 | 101.275 | 1025166 | 1075154 “55

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day ur calendar-month variatior

? Based on sample, of manufacturers’ and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverag
‘response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, {stats of sampling ero cana be calla, Further details on survey design, methodology, and data Himikations are contained ia owe most recent ann
fenhmakpubcsn, Current Inkshal Reprs: M3-1(6), "Manufacture Shipments Tovemae, snl Onn 9871

? The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal
machinery. general industrial machinery. computer and office equipmen, refrigeration, eating and service industry 7
Chaplets muss, and space Veices, arrah’misice and save vee gies tl pa, shi anlar Campenen aad equpment an sexes a again etupnen

Defense capital goods inches ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, miles, space vile, and parts, ships, tanks and tank componens, search and navigation equipment

ming nd material hating metalworking ry, special indust
electrical appara,

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments. New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1996-| Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1996-| _ Year ago Nov. [Nov. 1996-

Novy. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Oct. 1997 | Nov. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Oct. 1997] Nov. 1996] 1992-1996] Oct. 1997

Durable goods . 0.0 03 03 Hy 1 02 04 6 OQ ¢. 4 0.2

Primary metals . . 0.3 06 03 04 1.0 08 0.0 0.3

Industrial machinery and equipment . 00 08 06 12 12 07 0s 03 03
Electronic ‘and other

electrical equipment .. . 09 06 0.6 09 0.7 12 09 03 0.6

Transportation equipment 03 05 04 1.0 0.6 14 03 03 02

Nondefense capital goods 1.0 07 0.6 03 Ll 0.7 0.1 0.2 02

Defense capital goods 2.2 Ll Ll 6.9 3.2 48 03 0.2 0.2

___Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
205 205
New Orders
195 F--------------- eee ee eee ee ee --- eed Shipments |-] 195

185 185

175 175

165 165

155 L 1 L 1 L 1 L 1 1 L L L 1 155
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1995 - Nov. 1997

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
59 59

New Orders

54 | Shipments | ---------------------------------- 454

—-—~ — —

gg Lu L n 1 n n n L n n L L LI 39

Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1995 - Nov. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.