U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-02

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

March 26, 2003

CB-03-54

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

February 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars.

All figures exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $2.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $170.2 billion, the Department

of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.9 percent January increase. Excluding transportation, new orders

decreased 2.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.7 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2003 were 1.4 percent above

the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products had the largest decrease, $0.8 billion or 2.9 percent to $26.0 billion, due to computers and related

products, which decreased by $0.9 billion. Machinery decreased $0.6 billion or 2.5 percent to $21.9 billion.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in February decreased $2.8 billion or 1.6 percent to $171.5 billion. This followed a

2.7 percent January increase. Year to date, shipments for 2003 were 1.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products had the largest decrease, $1.2 billion or 4.6 percent to $25.7 billion, led by computers and related

products, which decreased by $1.0 billion. This was the largest percent decrease in computers and electronic products since April 2001.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in February, down six consecutive months, decreased $1.3 billion or 0.3

percent to $474.2 billion and were at the lowest level since August 1996. This followed a 0.4 percent January decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $245.7 billion, the lowest level since May 2000.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in February decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $264.4 billion. This was the

twenty-fourth decrease over the past twenty-five months. This followed a 0.2 percent January decrease.

Computers and electronic products, at the lowest level since May 1994, had the largest decrease, $0.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $41.3

billion, led by communications equipment, which decreased by $0.2 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in February increased $1.9 billion or 28.0 percent to $8.6 billion. 

Shipments increased 0.3 percent to $7.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $124.3 billion. Inventories

increased $0.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $19.0 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in February decreased $2.9 billion or 5.2 percent to $53.5 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $55.5 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $2.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $207.4 billion. 

Inventories decreased $1.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $110.8 billion.

! REVISED January DATA Revised seasonally adjusted January figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $325.9

billion (revised from $327.1 billion); shipments, $327.9 billion (revised from $328.1 billion); unfilled orders, $475.4 billion (revised

from $476.4 billion); and total inventories, $431.0 billion (revised from $430.8 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published April 2, 2003 at 10:00 A.M EST. The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for April 24 at

8:30 A.M EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date Percent

Item Change Feb Jan Dec Jan - Dec - Nov - Feb Jan Feb 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2002 Feb 2 Jan r Dec 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2003 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Shipments................................ 171,492 174,318 169,712 -1.6 2.7 -2.1 164,842 155,993 164,691 320,835 317,664 1.0

 New Orders.............................. 170,236 172,340 169,161 -1.2 1.9 -0.4 166,452 161,070 168,813 327,522 323,054 1.4

 Excluding transportation: 4

 Shipments................................ 119,365 122,746 121,408 -2.8 1.1 -0.5 113,302 108,541 113,535 221,843 219,447 1.1

 New Orders.............................. 119,349 121,910 120,421 -2.1 1.2 0.9 115,433 111,826 113,802 227,259 221,156 2.8

 Excluding defense: 4

 Shipments................................ 162,824 165,779 162,156 -1.8 2.2 -1.7 156,799 149,017 157,869 305,816 304,550 0.4

 New Orders.............................. 160,331 164,714 161,212 -2.7 2.2 -0.8 156,603 153,168 159,103 309,771 306,815 1.0

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders: 4

 Shipments................................ 119,488 120,957 117,822 -1.2 2.7 -2.9 114,839 107,346 116,001 222,185 222,442 -0.1

 New Orders.............................. 118,232 118,979 117,271 -0.6 1.5 -0.6 116,449 112,423 120,123 228,872 227,832 0.5

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 11,006 11,357 11,181 -3.1 1.6 0.2 10,750 11,092 10,605 21,842 21,149 3.3

 New Orders.............................. 10,938 11,190 10,885 -2.3 2.8 2.6 11,105 11,516 11,104 22,621 21,994 2.9

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,613 20,869 20,968 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 19,923 19,238 20,006 39,161 39,251 -0.2

 New Orders.............................. 20,170 20,594 20,401 -2.1 0.9 -1.1 19,818 19,334 19,988 39,152 39,077 0.2

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 22,097 22,422 22,243 -1.4 0.8 -2.0 21,384 19,476 21,796 40,860 41,273 -1.0

 New Orders.............................. 21,877 22,448 21,705 -2.5 3.4 -1.1 21,606 20,588 21,140 42,194 40,891 3.2

 Computers and electronic products: 4

 Shipments................................ 25,712 26,952 25,692 -4.6 4.9 -1.5 23,494 22,075 24,048 45,569 45,886 -0.7

 New Orders.............................. 26,036 26,804 26,242 -2.9 2.1 3.8 24,560 23,598 24,236 48,158 46,846 2.8

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 6,699 7,709 6,423 -13.1 20.0 -3.8 5,570 6,189 5,646 11,759 10,874 8.1

 New Orders.............................. 6,530 7,447 7,362 -12.3 1.2 10.0 5,591 5,918 5,964 11,509 11,137 3.3 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 5,480 5,642 5,154 -2.9 9.5 -6.5 4,873 4,357 5,320 9,230 9,838 -6.2

 New Orders.............................. 5,552 5,810 4,383 -4.4 32.6 -12.9 5,185 5,361 5,719 10,546 10,853 -2.8

 Semiconductors:

5

 Shipments................................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 New Orders.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,598 8,947 8,952 -3.9 -0.1 -1.7 8,178 7,726 8,555 15,904 16,221 -2.0

 New Orders.............................. 8,544 8,713 8,889 -1.9 -2.0 0.1 8,355 7,735 8,958 16,090 16,480 -2.4

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 52,127 51,572 48,304 1.1 6.8 -5.8 51,540 47,452 51,156 98,992 98,217 0.8

 New Orders.............................. 50,887 50,430 48,740 0.9 3.5 -3.5 51,019 49,244 55,011 100,263 101,898 -1.6

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 37,203 38,010 34,511 -2.1 10.1 -5.6 37,407 36,858 36,926 74,265 72,456 2.5

 New Orders.............................. 37,393 37,978 34,542 -1.5 9.9 -5.9 37,789 37,285 37,110 75,074 73,060 2.8 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 6,036 4,744 5,924 27.2 -19.9 -2.7 5,942 3,591 7,186 9,533 12,377 -23.0

 New Orders.............................. 3,804 5,166 6,839 -26.4 -24.5 21.3 3,840 4,745 6,357 8,585 10,291 -16.6

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,226 3,237 2,553 -0.3 26.8 -20.4 2,810 2,578 2,434 5,388 4,518 19.3

 New Orders.............................. 2,518 2,360 2,682 6.7 -12.0 -8.2 2,808 2,914 4,076 5,722 7,548 -24.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 31,339 32,199 32,372 -2.7 -0.5 1.3 29,573 28,934 28,525 58,507 55,667 5.1

 New Orders.............................. 31,784 32,161 32,299 -1.2 -0.4 0.8 29,989 29,055 28,376 59,044 55,868 5.7

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 62,788 63,278 61,507 -0.8 2.9 -2.5 59,110 53,574 58,854 112,684 111,891 0.7

 New Orders.............................. 62,071 63,133 62,808 -1.7 0.5 3.8 59,925 56,828 60,466 116,753 111,730 4.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 55,520 56,031 55,229 -0.9 1.5 -1.4 52,283 47,548 53,112 99,831 100,690 -0.9

 New Orders.............................. 53,454 56,402 55,842 -5.2 1.0 2.4 51,447 50,095 52,624 101,542 99,313 2.2

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 52,672 54,306 52,468 -3.0 3.5 -1.3 49,595 46,322 49,597 95,917 94,583 1.4

 New Orders.......................... 52,313 53,831 51,623 -2.8 4.3 -0.6 50,466 48,023 50,697 98,489 96,272 2.3

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,268 7,247 6,278 0.3 15.4 -10.9 6,827 6,026 5,742 12,853 11,201 14.7

 New Orders.............................. 8,617 6,731 6,966 28.0 -3.4 17.6 8,478 6,733 7,842 15,211 12,417 22.5

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(01), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey,

 the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

5 Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor 

shipments, orders, or inventories.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Feb Jan Dec Jan - Dec - Nov - Feb Jan Feb 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2002 Feb 2 Jan r Dec 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 474,184 475,440 477,418 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 479,092 477,482 507,348 -5.6

 Total Inventories....................... 264,412 264,686 265,242 -0.1 -0.2 1.0 266,238 263,450 273,538 -2.7

 Excluding transportation: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 228,531 228,547 229,383 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 231,357 229,226 250,036 -7.5

 Total Inventories....................... 191,208 191,747 192,473 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 192,958 191,014 199,539 -3.3

 Excluding defense: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 329,993 332,486 333,551 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 332,579 332,775 363,525 -8.5

 Total Inventories....................... 241,493 242,363 242,575 -0.4 -0.1 0.8 243,137 241,293 250,942 -3.1

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 474,184 475,440 477,418 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 479,092 477,482 507,348 -5.6

 Total Inventories....................... 214,718 215,168 216,005 -0.2 -0.4 1.2 215,935 214,109 224,053 -3.6

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,696 14,764 14,931 -0.5 -1.1 -1.9 15,084 14,729 16,948 -11.0

 Total Inventories....................... 19,127 18,934 18,742 1.0 1.0 0.6 19,133 19,096 18,643 2.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 37,082 37,525 37,800 -1.2 -0.7 -1.5 36,933 37,038 39,635 -6.8

 Total Inventories....................... 30,723 30,784 30,856 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 30,923 30,728 31,550 -2.0

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,387 44,607 44,581 -0.5 0.1 -1.2 44,948 44,726 53,032 -15.2

 Total Inventories....................... 44,060 44,303 44,729 -0.5 -1.0 0.7 44,724 44,143 47,110 -5.1

 Computers and electronic products: 4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 108,116 107,792 107,940 0.3 -0.1 0.5 109,986 108,920 114,911 -4.3

 Total Inventories....................... 41,271 41,650 42,272 -0.9 -1.5 -0.7 41,469 41,076 45,386 -8.6

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 7,377 7,546 7,808 -2.2 -3.4 13.7 7,453 7,432 7,067 5.5

 Total Inventories....................... 6,794 6,883 7,067 -1.3 -2.6 -0.4 6,969 6,676 7,278 -4.2 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 38,241 38,169 38,001 0.2 0.4 -2.0 38,986 38,674 43,268 -9.9

 Total Inventories....................... 8,419 8,610 8,793 -2.2 -2.1 -5.1 8,467 8,531 11,097 -23.7

 Semiconductors:5

 Unfilled Orders......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,123 14,177 14,411 -0.4 -1.6 -0.4 14,385 14,208 15,135 -5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 12,302 12,429 12,397 -1.0 0.3 -0.8 12,590 12,381 13,664 -7.9

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 245,653 246,893 248,035 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 247,735 248,256 257,312 -3.7

 Total Inventories....................... 73,204 72,939 72,769 0.4 0.2 3.8 73,280 72,436 73,999 -1.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,476 12,286 12,318 1.5 -0.3 0.3 13,052 12,670 12,797 2.0

 Total Inventories....................... 21,141 21,009 20,741 0.6 1.3 0.9 21,040 20,857 19,532 7.7 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 111,348 113,580 113,158 -2.0 0.4 0.8 111,042 113,144 121,257 -8.4

 Total Inventories....................... 29,670 30,107 29,936 -1.5 0.6 6.3 29,574 29,851 32,131 -8.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 55,699 56,407 57,284 -1.3 -1.5 0.2 56,633 56,635 54,313 4.3

 Total Inventories....................... 11,160 10,900 11,151 2.4 -2.3 3.9 11,416 10,818 10,935 4.4

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 10,127 9,682 9,720 4.6 -0.4 -0.7 10,021 9,605 10,375 -3.4

 Total Inventories....................... 43,725 43,647 43,477 0.2 0.4 0.3 44,119 43,590 43,186 2.2

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 331,699 332,416 332,561 -0.2 0.0 0.4 335,726 334,911 355,277 -5.5

 Total Inventories....................... 129,747 130,719 131,846 -0.7 -0.9 1.4 130,592 129,729 140,730 -7.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 207,405 209,471 209,100 -1.0 0.2 0.3 209,123 209,959 229,411 -8.8

 Total Inventories....................... 110,775 112,052 112,810 -1.1 -0.7 1.0 111,626 111,156 121,749 -8.3

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 123,051 123,410 123,885 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 124,769 123,898 138,596 -10.0

 Total Inventories.................. 88,222 89,023 90,016 -0.9 -1.1 0.1 89,131 88,301 95,996 -7.2

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 124,294 122,945 123,461 1.1 -0.4 0.6 126,603 124,952 125,866 0.6

 Total Inventories....................... 18,972 18,667 19,036 1.6 -1.9 3.4 18,966 18,573 18,981 -0.1

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.