FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

THURSDAY, JANUARY 28, 2016, AT 8:30 A.M. EST 

Adriana Stoica 

Economic Indicators Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (15)-12 

CB 16-12

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

December 2015 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in 

December decreased $12.0 billion or 5.1 percent to 

$225.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced 

today. This decrease, down four of the last five months, 

followed a 0.5 percent November decrease. Excluding 

transportation, new orders decreased 1.2 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.9 percent. 

 

 Transportation equipment, also down four of the last 

five months, led the decrease, $10.1 billion or 12.4 

percent to $71.3 billion. 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in 

December, down two of the last three months, decreased 

$5.4 billion, or 2.2 percent, to $235.8 billion. This 

followed a 0.6 percent November increase. 

 Transportation equipment, also down two of the last 

three months, led the decrease, $5.4 billion or 6.7 

percent to $75.1 billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

December, down following two consecutive monthly 

increases, decreased $5.6 billion or 0.5 percent to 

$1,187.6 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent November 

increase. 

 Transportation equipment, also down following two 

consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $3.8 

billion or 0.5 percent to $795.2 billion. 

Inventories 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in 

December, up following five consecutive monthly 

decreases, increased $2.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, to 

$397.9 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent November 

decrease. 

 Transportation, up following three consecutive 

monthly decreases, led the increase, $1.8 billion or 1.4 

percent to $131.8 billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in December 

decreased $11.3 billion or 15.0 percent to $64.4 billion. 

Shipments decreased $5.3 billion or 6.6 percent to $74.7 

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $10.3 billion or 1.4 

percent to $742.8 billion. Inventories increased $1.2 

billion or 0.7 percent to $175.9 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in December 

decreased $4.9 billion or 34.4 percent to $9.3 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 3.6 percent to $10.2 

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.9 billion or 0.6 

percent to $150.5 billion. Inventories decreased less 

than $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $21.3 billion. 

Revised November Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $471.0 

billion (revised from $472.2 billion); shipments, $474.7 

billion (revised from $475.3 billion); unfilled orders, 

$1,193.2 billion (revised from $1,193.9 billion); and 

total inventories, $641.9 billion (revised from $641.3 

billion). 

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor 

manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>. Revised and more detailed estimates, plus 

nondurable goods data, will be published on February 4, 2016, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The Advance Report on durable goods for January is 

scheduled for release on February 25, 2016 at 8:30 a.m. EST. See back page for survey description. To receive the latest updates on the 

Nation's key economic indicators, download the America's Economy app for Apple and Android smartphones and tablets. To learn more 

about this release and the other indicators the U.S. Census Bureau publishes, join us for the Investigating Economic Indicators Webinar 

Series. For more information, visit www.census.gov/econ/webinar. 

“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or decrease. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Dec Nov Oct Nov - Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec Change

2015 2 2015 r 2015 Dec 2 Nov r Oct 2015 2 2015 r 2014 2015 2014 2015/2014

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Shipments................................ 235,782 241,198 239,719 -2.2 0.6 -1.2 235,175 230,842 243,139 2,877,310 2,838,388 1.4

 New Orders4

.............................. 225,422 237,446 238,619 -5.1 -0.5 2.8 240,853 227,343 244,995 2,795,732 2,897,059 -3.5

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 160,673 160,712 161,139 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 159,510 153,154 164,228 1,942,233 1,964,011 -1.1

 New Orders4

.............................. 154,121 156,035 156,831 -1.2 -0.5 0.5 152,924 145,970 157,792 1,875,666 1,926,354 -2.6

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 223,289 228,963 226,573 -2.5 1.1 -1.3 221,040 218,202 228,833 2,729,455 2,694,125 1.3

 New Orders4

.............................. 214,566 221,054 225,509 -2.9 -2.0 3.0 224,713 212,325 229,981 2,653,634 2,752,186 -3.6

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 166,850 172,038 171,341 -3.0 0.4 -1.1 169,331 164,433 178,474 2,058,713 2,030,443 1.4

 New Orders.............................. 161,266 173,237 174,911 -6.9 -1.0 4.4 179,190 166,286 185,008 2,035,159 2,155,534 -5.6

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 19,324 19,608 20,016 -1.4 -2.0 -1.0 17,735 18,364 21,794 250,837 279,468 -10.2

 New Orders.............................. 19,265 19,216 20,096 0.3 -4.4 2.0 18,237 18,309 21,902 248,741 281,064 -11.5

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 29,386 29,514 29,496 -0.4 0.1 0.0 27,609 27,997 28,979 357,665 361,018 -0.9

 New Orders.............................. 29,459 29,613 29,313 -0.5 1.0 -1.1 27,197 26,972 28,635 355,260 365,195 -2.7

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 32,702 32,436 32,807 0.8 -1.1 -2.1 33,703 30,139 35,111 398,066 408,268 -2.5

 New Orders.............................. 30,443 32,265 33,122 -5.6 -2.6 0.8 30,451 30,074 32,944 387,568 417,377 -7.1

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Shipments................................ 29,666 29,964 29,809 -1.0 0.5 0.1 32,621 29,369 31,395 350,974 339,358 3.4

 New Orders.............................. 25,176 25,702 25,725 -2.0 -0.1 2.2 29,502 23,541 27,563 300,270 283,370 6.0

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 1,868 1,929 2,028 -3.2 -4.9 3.2 2,719 1,670 3,075 24,503 26,545 -7.7

 New Orders.............................. 1,839 2,015 2,056 -8.7 -2.0 5.3 2,690 1,756 3,055 24,684 27,028 -8.7

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 3,867 3,770 3,612 2.6 4.4 -2.5 4,513 3,493 4,278 44,436 43,225 2.8

 New Orders.............................. 3,331 4,188 4,051 -20.5 3.4 3.5 4,244 3,421 4,864 47,502 48,410 -1.9

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 9,957 9,923 10,082 0.3 -1.6 -0.9 9,840 9,693 10,606 122,930 126,128 -2.5

 New Orders.............................. 10,190 9,978 9,630 2.1 3.6 -3.6 10,120 9,449 10,804 122,076 128,831 -5.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 75,109 80,486 78,580 -6.7 2.4 -2.7 75,665 77,688 78,911 935,077 874,377 6.9

 New Orders.............................. 71,301 81,411 81,788 -12.4 -0.5 7.6 87,929 81,373 87,203 920,066 970,705 -5.2

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 51,990 52,179 51,596 -0.4 1.1 -2.9 47,977 50,067 45,630 616,032 563,471 9.3

 New Orders.............................. 51,900 52,103 51,603 -0.4 1.0 -3.0 48,487 50,733 46,450 615,857 566,581 8.7

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 10,844 16,032 13,770 -32.4 16.4 -4.2 14,310 15,415 17,813 168,783 153,037 10.3

 New Orders.............................. 9,360 13,251 17,273 -29.4 -23.3 78.8 25,270 15,850 24,108 162,466 241,528 -32.7

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 4,685 4,656 5,443 0.6 -14.5 1.0 5,548 4,747 5,709 58,414 56,991 2.5

 New Orders.............................. 2,500 8,088 5,607 -69.1 44.2 -13.7 5,285 7,857 6,963 57,025 55,795 2.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 39,638 39,267 38,929 0.9 0.9 0.6 38,002 37,592 36,343 461,761 449,771 2.7

 New Orders.............................. 39,588 39,261 38,945 0.8 0.8 0.8 37,417 37,625 35,944 461,751 450,517 2.5

 Capital goods3

:

 Shipments................................ 84,828 89,742 89,085 -5.5 0.7 -1.5 93,708 85,963 100,545 1,063,373 1,049,800 1.3

 New Orders.............................. 73,687 89,898 92,070 -18.0 -2.4 10.9 95,468 87,439 106,453 1,037,024 1,150,776 -9.9

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 74,651 79,921 78,454 -6.6 1.9 -1.9 82,449 75,767 89,188 944,363 934,952 1.0

 New Orders.............................. 64,376 75,702 82,332 -15.0 -8.1 12.0 82,112 74,799 95,248 923,433 1,037,179 -11.0

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 68,296 68,411 69,162 -0.2 -1.1 -1.0 73,109 64,818 75,999 829,097 831,544 -0.3

 New Orders.......................... 65,866 68,814 69,584 -4.3 -1.1 0.6 69,570 64,072 75,368 822,562 856,385 -3.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 10,177 9,821 10,631 3.6 -7.6 0.9 11,259 10,196 11,357 119,010 114,848 3.6

 New Orders.............................. 9,311 14,196 9,738 -34.4 45.8 2.1 13,356 12,640 11,205 113,591 113,597 0.0

r

 Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.

1

 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of 

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, 

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, 

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals.

 Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Dec Nov Oct Nov - Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec 2015/

2015 2 2015 r 2015 Dec 2 Nov r Oct 2015 2 2015 r 2014 2014

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Unfilled Orders4......................... 1,187,624 1,193,208 1,192,009 -0.5 0.1 0.3 1,191,348 1,181,489 1,214,902 -1.9

 Total Inventories....................... 397,894 395,832 396,660 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 386,940 395,711 387,505 -0.1

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 392,453 394,229 393,955 -0.5 0.1 0.1 385,606 388,011 394,149 -2.2

 Total Inventories....................... 266,091 265,821 266,138 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 259,261 265,430 263,258 -1.5

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................... 1,002,729 1,006,676 1,009,634 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 1,006,071 998,217 1,023,868 -1.7

 Total Inventories....................... 371,444 369,387 369,762 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 360,759 369,248 361,966 -0.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,187,624 1,193,208 1,192,009 -0.5 0.1 0.3 1,191,348 1,181,489 1,214,902 -1.9

 Total Inventories....................... 323,675 322,200 323,409 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 314,710 322,084 317,133 -0.8

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 34,591 34,650 35,042 -0.2 -1.1 0.2 34,086 33,584 36,182 -5.8

 Total Inventories....................... 34,800 35,008 35,658 -0.6 -1.8 -1.0 34,630 34,837 39,302 -11.9

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 81,909 81,836 81,737 0.1 0.1 -0.2 79,421 79,833 81,826 -2.9

 Total Inventories....................... 49,109 49,125 49,071 0.0 0.1 0.1 48,230 48,529 48,080 0.3

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 108,670 110,929 111,100 -2.0 -0.2 0.3 106,681 109,933 117,179 -9.0

 Total Inventories....................... 66,445 65,997 65,926 0.7 0.1 -0.3 63,814 66,434 64,319 -0.8

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 136,647 136,361 135,672 0.2 0.5 0.4 135,835 134,773 128,515 5.7

 Total Inventories....................... 44,890 44,811 44,801 0.2 0.0 -0.3 43,528 45,097 43,381 0.3

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 2,653 2,682 2,596 -1.1 3.3 1.1 2,653 2,682 2,472 7.3

 Total Inventories....................... 3,449 3,441 3,407 0.2 1.0 -0.6 3,182 3,579 3,697 -13.9

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 40,100 40,636 40,218 -1.3 1.0 1.1 39,711 39,980 36,645 8.4

 Total Inventories....................... 5,203 5,381 5,423 -3.3 -0.8 -0.4 5,053 5,517 5,619 -10.1

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 22,171 21,938 21,883 1.1 0.3 -2.0 21,705 21,425 22,559 -3.8

 Total Inventories....................... 16,253 16,309 16,352 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 15,581 16,174 15,857 -1.7

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 795,171 798,979 798,054 -0.5 0.1 0.4 805,742 793,478 820,753 -1.8

 Total Inventories....................... 131,803 130,011 130,522 1.4 -0.4 -0.5 127,679 130,281 124,247 2.8

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 21,534 21,624 21,700 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 21,855 21,345 22,030 -0.8

 Total Inventories....................... 36,504 35,713 35,559 2.2 0.4 0.4 34,962 35,714 32,990 6.0

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 607,807 609,291 612,072 -0.2 -0.5 0.6 617,459 606,499 623,776 -1.0

 Total Inventories....................... 67,760 66,975 67,195 1.2 -0.3 -0.2 65,592 67,055 64,458 1.8

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 66,736 68,921 65,489 -3.2 5.2 0.3 68,000 68,263 69,389 -2.0

 Total Inventories....................... 11,836 11,932 11,873 -0.8 0.5 -0.7 11,669 11,928 12,386 -5.8

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,465 8,515 8,521 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 7,878 8,463 7,888 -0.1

 Total Inventories....................... 54,594 54,571 54,330 0.0 0.4 -0.1 53,478 54,359 52,319 2.2

 Capital goods3

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 893,276 904,417 904,261 -1.2 0.0 0.3 897,885 896,125 924,234 -2.9

 Total Inventories....................... 197,276 196,058 196,815 0.6 -0.4 -0.6 190,622 197,451 191,342 -0.4

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 742,793 753,068 757,287 -1.4 -0.6 0.5 748,064 748,401 768,994 -2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 175,929 174,686 174,980 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 169,377 176,057 170,548 -0.7

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 243,878 246,308 245,905 -1.0 0.2 0.2 239,831 243,370 246,366 -2.7

 Total Inventories................... 119,778 119,183 119,039 0.5 0.1 -0.5 115,447 120,499 117,025 -1.3

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 150,483 151,349 146,974 -0.6 3.0 -0.6 149,821 147,724 155,240 -3.5

 Total Inventories....................... 21,347 21,372 21,835 -0.1 -2.1 -3.0 21,245 21,394 20,794 2.2

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4 

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, 

and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

This survey provides statistics on a calendar-month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new 

orders (net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory 

(at current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-inprocess, and finished goods). Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately 

4,800 reporting units that represent approximately 3,000 companies and provide an indication of monthto-month change for the Manufacturing Sector. These reporting units may be divisions of diversified 

large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, 

which are combined into 65 publication levels due to the small monthly panel size. The survey 

methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the 

M3 panel effectively represent the month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the 

category. 

The companies for which shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent 

approximately 61 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 

Economic Census, and these companies include almost two-thirds of the manufacturing companies with 

$500 million or more in shipments in the 2012 Economic Census. The companies for which shipments 

data are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 54 percent of the total value of 

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 Economic Census. Statistics based on the M3 

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing 

companies. The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are 

normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many 

sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is 

one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-to-month 

movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full 

report. Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any 

revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. 

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3. 

Benchmark notice 

Revised historical data from the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey will be 

issued on May 18, 2016. These revisions result from: 

 benchmarking the 2008-2011 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) shipments and inventories 

data to the revised 2012 Economic Census data on a 2007 North American Industry 

Classification System (NAICS) basis; 

 benchmarking the M3 shipments and inventories data to the 2014 ASM and revised 2013 ASM 

data, as well as the revised 2012 Economic Census data, on a 2012 NAICS basis, and ASM 

benchmarks for prior years on a 2007 NAICS basis; 

 incorporating the unfilled orders to shipments ratios obtained from the 2014/2013 Manufacturers’ 

Unfilled Orders (M3UFO) Survey by applying these ratios to the respective ASM shipments 

data, as well as incorporating revised unfilled orders to shipments ratios for prior years by 

applying them to the respective Census or ASM shipments data; 

 adjusting the new orders data to be consistent with the benchmarked shipments and unfilled 

orders data; 

 correcting monthly data for late receipts, reclassifications of reported data, and revisions to 

previously reported data; 

 updating the seasonally adjusted data based on the results of benchmarking and the recent annual 

review of the seasonal adjustment models. 

These revisions will span the seasonally adjusted data for January 1997 through March 2016 and the data 

not seasonally adjusted for January 2001 through March 2016. An updated Press Release will contain 

revised monthly tables for January 2016 through March 2016. Please call M3 staff on (301) 763-4832 

with any questions.