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FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EST, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2019 

MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES AND 

ORDERS OCTOBER 2019 

Release Number: CB 19-173 M3-1 (19)-10 

November 27, 2019 — The U.S. Census Bureau announces the October advance report on manufacturers’ 

shipments, inventories and orders: 

New Orders 

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $1.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $248.7 

billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 

1.4 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding 

defense, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Fabricated metal products, up two of the last three months, 

led the increase, $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $34.1 billion. 

Shipments 

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, 

increased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $251.6 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent 

September decrease. Machinery, up two of the last three months, drove the increase, $0.3 billion or 1.0 

percent to $33.1 billion. 

DURABLE GOODS – NEW ORDERS 

OCTOBER 2019 $248.7 billion +0.6%° 

SEPTEMBER 2019 

(revised) $247.3 billion -1.4%° 

Next release: December 24, 2019 

Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes. 

°Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey. The Manufacturers' Shipments, 

Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so the sampling 

error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the confidence intervals be computed. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, November 

27, 2019.

Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19

% Change 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% -2.6% 1.7% -2.8% -2.3% 1.8% 2.1% 0.2% -1.4% 0.6%

-8.0%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2018-2019

Seasonally Adjusted, Month-To-Month Percentage Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, 

November 27, 2019. 
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Unfilled Orders 

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in October, up three of the last four months, increased 

$1.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,164.8 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged September decrease. 

Transportation equipment, up four consecutive months, led the increase, $0.9 billion or 0.1 percent to 

$795.5 billion. 

Inventories 

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, increased 

$1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $432.0 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent September increase. 

Transportation equipment, also up fifteen of the last sixteen months, drove the increase, $1.8 billion or 1.3 

percent to $147.4 billion. 

Capital Goods 

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in October increased $2.2 billion or 3.2 percent to $73.3 billion. 

Shipments increased $1.0 billion or 1.4 percent to $75.1 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.8 billion or 

0.3 percent to $688.2 billion. Inventories increased $1.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $195.8 billion. Defense 

new orders for capital goods in October increased $2.3 billion or 16.6 percent to $16.2 billion. Shipments 

increased $0.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $13.0 billion. Unfilled orders increased $3.2 billion or 2.0 percent 

to $161.4 billion. Inventories increased $0.4 billion or 1.5 percent to $24.3 billion. 

Revised September Data

Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $496.3 

billion (revised from $496.7 billion); shipments, $500.6 billion (revised from $501.1 billion); unfilled orders, 

$1,163.5 billion (revised from $1,163.3 billion) and total inventories, $698.1 billion (revised from $697.9 

billion). 

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on December 5, 2019, 

at 10:00 a.m. EST. The Advance Report on durable goods for November is scheduled for release on 

December 24, 2019 at 8:30 a.m. EST. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room: 

<www.census.gov/economic-indicators/> The full text and tables of this release can be found at

www.census.gov/m3>.
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EXPLANATORY NOTES 

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders 

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing. 

“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or 

decrease. 

Description of the survey 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, 

and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. This 

survey provides statistics on a calendar-month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders 

(net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at 

current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-inprocess, and finished goods). Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately 

5,000 reporting units that represent approximately 3,100 companies and provide an indication of monthto-month change for the Manufacturing Sector. These reporting units may be divisions of diversified large 

companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, which 

are combined into 65 publication levels due to the small monthly panel size. The survey methodology 

assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the M3 panel 

effectively represent the month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. 

The companies for which shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent 

approximately 64 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 

Economic Census, and these companies include almost two-thirds of the manufacturing companies with 

$500 million or more in shipments in the 2012 Economic Census. The companies for which shipments data 

are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 57 percent of the total value of 

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 Economic Census. Statistics based on the M3 

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing 

companies. The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are 

normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many 

sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is 

one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-to-month 

movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full 

report. Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any 

revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. Additional 
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survey documentation can be found on our web site: 

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>. 

2020 RELEASE DATES FOR THE M3 SURVEY 

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/pfei_schedule_release_dates_2020.pdf

RESOURCES 

API 

The Census Bureau’s application programming interface (API) lets developers create custom apps to reach 

new users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever 

before. 

<www.census.gov/developers/> 

NEW TIME SERIES 

Beginning with the release of June 2018 data on July 26, 2018, historical estimates of the Monthly Advance 

Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders are available on a seasonally adjusted basis 

as well as a not seasonally adjusted basis at: <https://www.census.gov/econ/currentdata/>. 

Survey month Advance Report 

(8:30 a.m. release time)

Full Report 

(10:00 a.m. release time)

Nov-19 Tue 12/24/2019 Tue 1/7/2020

Dec-19 Tue 1/28/2020 Tue 2/4/2020

Jan-20 Thu 2/27/2020 Thu 3/5/2020

Feb-20 Wed 3/25/2020 Thu 4/2/2020

Mar-20 Fri 4/24/2020 Mon 5/4/2020

Apr-20 Thu 5/28/2020 Wed 6/3/2020

May-20 Thu 6/25/2020 Thu 7/2/2020

Jun-20 Mon 7/27/2020 Tue 8/4/2020

Jul-20 Wed 8/26/2020 Wed 9/2/2020

Aug-20 Fri 9/25/2020 Fri 10/2/2020

Sep-20 Tue 10/27/2020 Tue 11/3/2020

Oct-20 Wed 11/25/2020 Fri 12/4/2020

Nov-20 Thu 12/24/2020 Not available at this time
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FRED Mobile App 

Receive the latest updates on the nation’s key economic indicators by downloading 

the FRED App <https://fred.stlouisfed.org/fred-mobile/> for both Apple and 

Android devices. FRED, the signature database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. 

Louis, now incorporates the Census Bureau’s 13 economic indicators. 

### 
Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Change

2019 2 2019 r 2019 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2019 2 2019 r 2018 2019 2018 2019/2018

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Shipments................................ 251,622 251,588 253,325 0.0 -0.7 -0.2 261,029 262,374 265,344 2,557,042 2,512,790 1.8

 New Orders4

.............................. 248,746 247,265 250,733 0.6 -1.4 0.2 253,441 255,526 255,828 2,490,041 2,510,036 -0.8

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 167,907 167,576 167,767 0.2 -0.1 0.3 173,216 174,092 173,099 1,687,809 1,659,505 1.7

 New Orders4

.............................. 164,153 163,231 163,962 0.6 -0.4 0.1 167,572 167,752 168,543 1,647,802 1,637,841 0.6

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 236,700 236,773 238,615 0.0 -0.8 -0.2 246,314 246,209 251,527 2,412,048 2,380,505 1.3

 New Orders4

.............................. 230,314 230,065 234,330 0.1 -1.8 -1.0 236,508 234,976 243,374 2,341,503 2,363,446 -0.9

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 174,649 173,680 174,192 0.6 -0.3 0.0 178,264 181,799 181,221 1,767,457 1,746,808 1.2

 New Orders.............................. 175,999 173,677 175,862 1.3 -1.2 0.5 175,674 179,355 176,640 1,742,781 1,783,976 -2.3

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 20,057 20,238 20,174 -0.9 0.3 0.0 20,487 20,213 22,145 209,181 215,517 -2.9

 New Orders.............................. 20,196 20,481 20,582 -1.4 -0.5 1.6 20,116 19,602 21,997 208,663 217,978 -4.3

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 34,024 33,859 33,676 0.5 0.5 0.7 35,836 34,819 35,004 341,215 330,297 3.3

 New Orders.............................. 34,121 33,507 34,101 1.8 -1.7 0.6 35,019 33,540 34,401 343,327 336,877 1.9

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 33,057 32,728 33,282 1.0 -1.7 1.1 33,371 32,932 33,400 333,085 327,470 1.7

 New Orders.............................. 33,087 32,664 32,681 1.3 -0.1 -0.3 33,435 32,343 34,047 330,783 331,700 -0.3

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Shipments................................ 27,834 27,703 27,786 0.5 -0.3 -0.3 27,707 30,908 27,634 274,137 263,977 3.8

 New Orders.............................. 23,677 23,512 23,618 0.7 -0.4 -0.1 22,894 27,227 23,064 232,951 227,654 2.3

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 1,700 1,647 1,715 3.2 -4.0 1.3 1,551 2,074 1,792 16,885 17,850 -5.4

 New Orders.............................. 1,728 1,688 1,682 2.4 0.4 -0.1 1,579 2,115 1,821 16,863 18,104 -6.9

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 3,843 3,875 3,867 -0.8 0.2 -0.2 3,344 4,794 3,304 37,295 33,977 9.8

 New Orders.............................. 3,717 3,710 3,654 0.2 1.5 -3.7 3,290 4,687 3,360 36,210 35,194 2.9

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 11,521 11,754 11,676 -2.0 0.7 -1.0 11,959 12,576 12,009 117,133 113,453 3.2

 New Orders.............................. 11,657 11,854 11,737 -1.7 1.0 -2.1 12,229 12,356 12,075 118,388 113,873 4.0

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 83,715 84,012 85,558 -0.4 -1.8 -1.1 87,813 88,282 92,245 869,233 853,285 1.9

 New Orders.............................. 84,593 84,034 86,771 0.7 -3.2 0.2 85,869 87,774 87,285 842,239 872,195 -3.4

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 58,788 60,043 61,664 -2.1 -2.6 -1.5 63,678 61,579 66,261 618,253 591,531 4.5

 New Orders.............................. 58,454 59,608 61,407 -1.9 -2.9 -1.6 62,223 61,082 65,327 615,545 590,910 4.2

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 10,061 9,331 9,170 7.8 1.8 -2.2 9,142 10,789 11,820 106,394 128,730 -17.4

 New Orders.............................. 8,122 7,340 9,059 10.7 -19.0 -17.2 6,541 6,646 9,006 81,662 132,745 -38.5

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 4,371 4,225 4,358 3.5 -3.1 -4.1 4,302 4,815 4,620 44,407 44,310 0.2

 New Orders.............................. 7,311 6,191 5,404 18.1 14.6 52.7 7,060 7,202 4,287 47,373 50,613 -6.4

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 41,414 41,294 41,173 0.3 0.3 0.2 43,856 42,644 42,907 413,058 408,791 1.0

 New Orders.............................. 41,415 41,213 41,243 0.5 -0.1 0.2 43,879 42,684 42,959 413,690 409,759 1.0

 Capital goods3

:

 Shipments................................ 88,117 86,928 86,943 1.4 0.0 -0.1 87,463 93,482 89,258 881,655 877,147 0.5

 New Orders.............................. 89,535 84,981 87,404 5.4 -2.8 -0.5 87,282 89,713 85,308 858,118 891,327 -3.7

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 75,118 74,082 74,302 1.4 -0.3 -0.3 74,588 79,585 77,377 756,318 764,283 -1.0

 New Orders.............................. 73,298 71,057 73,584 3.2 -3.4 -3.2 72,756 72,894 75,150 730,242 771,858 -5.4

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 69,335 68,776 69,355 0.8 -0.8 -0.1 69,609 72,838 69,538 692,530 676,753 2.3

 New Orders.......................... 69,369 68,562 68,901 1.2 -0.5 -0.8 69,965 72,131 70,215 690,138 684,209 0.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 12,999 12,846 12,641 1.2 1.6 0.6 12,875 13,897 11,881 125,337 112,864 11.1

 New Orders.............................. 16,237 13,924 13,820 16.6 0.8 16.9 14,526 16,819 10,158 127,876 119,469 7.0

r Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment. 

1 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of 

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, 

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes. 2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage, response and 

nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3. 3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, and other machinery; photographic 

equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer 

peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; 

railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and 

boats, and search and navigation equipment. 

4

 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled 

orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, October Advance Report, November 27, 2019. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website at 

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>. 
Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct 2019/

2019 2 2019 r 2019 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2019 2 2019 r 2018 2018

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Unfilled Orders4......................... 1,164,818 1,163,468 1,163,471 0.1 0.0 0.1 1,154,958 1,157,548 1,173,580 -1.6

 Total Inventories....................... 431,981 430,542 428,293 0.3 0.5 0.3 432,218 430,331 412,470 4.8

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 369,329 368,857 368,882 0.1 0.0 0.1 365,375 366,021 364,831 0.1

 Total Inventories....................... 284,607 285,002 284,976 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 283,663 284,389 280,632 1.1

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................... 960,075 962,235 964,623 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 951,099 955,907 979,094 -2.9

 Total Inventories....................... 403,253 402,200 400,178 0.3 0.5 0.3 403,541 402,012 385,387 4.7

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,164,818 1,163,468 1,163,471 0.1 0.0 0.1 1,154,958 1,157,548 1,173,580 -1.6

 Total Inventories....................... 352,871 351,338 349,208 0.4 0.6 0.3 353,393 351,506 336,135 5.1

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 32,094 31,955 31,712 0.4 0.8 1.3 30,585 30,956 30,339 0.8

 Total Inventories....................... 34,745 34,906 34,972 -0.5 -0.2 -1.4 34,514 34,987 35,713 -3.4

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 86,767 86,670 87,022 0.1 -0.4 0.5 85,676 86,493 83,954 2.1

 Total Inventories....................... 54,260 54,367 54,328 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 53,884 54,328 54,012 -0.2

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 102,254 102,224 102,288 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 101,498 101,434 105,567 -3.9

 Total Inventories....................... 72,156 72,233 72,242 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 72,109 72,357 69,922 3.1

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 118,663 118,594 118,465 0.1 0.1 0.1 118,182 117,997 116,069 1.8

 Total Inventories....................... 43,351 43,548 43,406 -0.5 0.3 0.2 43,499 43,393 43,345 0.4

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 2,173 2,145 2,104 1.3 1.9 -1.5 2,173 2,145 2,132 1.9

 Total Inventories....................... 3,820 3,880 3,832 -1.5 1.3 0.6 3,797 3,874 3,675 3.3

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 25,096 25,222 25,387 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 25,008 25,062 26,276 -4.8

 Total Inventories....................... 5,567 5,574 5,588 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 5,612 5,482 5,478 2.4

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 20,327 20,191 20,091 0.7 0.5 0.3 20,210 19,940 19,452 3.9

 Total Inventories....................... 20,356 20,245 20,285 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 20,203 19,956 19,189 5.3

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 795,489 794,611 794,589 0.1 0.0 0.2 789,583 791,527 808,749 -2.4

 Total Inventories....................... 147,374 145,540 143,317 1.3 1.6 1.3 148,555 145,942 131,838 12.7

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 25,758 26,092 26,527 -1.3 -1.6 -1.0 24,484 25,939 25,886 -5.4

 Total Inventories....................... 38,860 39,001 38,799 -0.4 0.5 0.5 39,162 39,134 36,929 6.0

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 577,307 579,246 581,237 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 573,456 576,057 597,125 -4.0

 Total Inventories....................... 78,334 76,819 75,170 2.0 2.2 2.5 79,119 76,974 67,074 18.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 85,798 82,858 80,892 3.5 2.4 1.3 85,155 82,397 78,797 8.1

 Total Inventories....................... 13,532 13,500 13,409 0.2 0.7 0.1 13,565 13,487 13,217 2.6

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 9,224 9,223 9,304 0.0 -0.9 0.8 9,224 9,201 9,450 -2.4

 Total Inventories....................... 59,739 59,703 59,743 0.1 -0.1 0.1 59,454 59,368 58,451 1.7

 Capital goods3

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 849,581 848,163 850,110 0.2 -0.2 0.1 843,660 843,841 863,273 -2.3

 Total Inventories....................... 220,086 218,323 216,402 0.8 0.9 0.7 220,915 218,176 204,092 8.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 688,163 689,983 693,008 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 683,344 685,176 710,387 -3.8

 Total Inventories....................... 195,811 194,413 192,686 0.7 0.9 1.0 196,724 194,276 181,341 8.5

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 217,956 217,922 218,136 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 216,953 216,597 221,946 -2.2

 Total Inventories................... 129,901 130,082 129,881 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 130,159 129,929 126,509 2.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 161,418 158,180 157,102 2.0 0.7 0.8 160,316 158,665 152,886 4.9

 Total Inventories....................... 24,275 23,910 23,716 1.5 0.8 -1.2 24,191 23,900 22,751 6.3

r Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment. 

1 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of shipments and 

new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, as well as seasonal variation, 

based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes. 

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors 

of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations, 

see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3. 

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, 

and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; 

electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; 

electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and 

supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment. 4

 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals. Estimates and percent 

changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, October Advance Report, November 27, 2019. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website 

at <www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.