UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | atin
NEWS WASHINGTON, D.C. mR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth August 26, 1992
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB92-206
M3-1(92)-07

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
July 1992
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $4.2 billion or 3.4 percent to $119.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. The July decrease follows a 2.8 percent increase in June
and 2.1 percent decrease in May. Excluding defense, new orders were down $2.3 billion or 2.0 percent. New orders without
transportation equipment increased $0.6 billion or 0.7 percent.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $4.8 billion or 15.2 percent to $26.6 billion, with decreases
in all categories; most of the decline was in aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment was down $0.4 billion or
1.9 percent to $20.9 billion. The decrease was slightly offset by increases in instrun.ents and related products, electronic and
other electrical equipment, and stone, clay and glass products.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in July decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $125.5 billion, following a 2.9 percent
increase in June. Excluding defense, shipments declined $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent. Without transportation equipment,
shipments increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent. The largest decrease occurred in transportation equipment, down $0.5 billion
or 1.5 percent to $32.3 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts. Industrial machinery and cquipment was down $0.4 billion
or 18 percent to $21.3 billion, with decreases in most categories. The largest increase occurred in electronic and other
electrical equipment, up $0.7 billion or 3.9 percent to $18.0 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in July decreased $6.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $461.2 billion and are at the lowest
level since $459.2 billion in February 1989, This is the eleventh consecutive monthly decline. Excluding defense, unfilled orders
were down $3.5 billion or 1.1 percent. Without transportation equipment, unfilled orders were down $0.7 billion or 0.4 percent.
Transportation equipment had the largest decline, down $5.7 billion or 2.2 percent to $255.5 billion, with large decreases in
aircraft and parts and shipbuilding and tanks. Transportation equipment has declined in ten of the last cleven months and
is at the lowest level since $251.8 billion in November 1989. Industrial machinery and cquipment, down $0.4 billion or 0.7
percent to $51.5 billion, has declined in nine of the last ten months and is at the lowest level since $51.2 billion in September
1987. Instruments and related products also declined.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in July decreased $2.2 billion or 7.0 percent to $28.8 billion, The July
decrease follows a 1.7 percent increase in June. Shipments were down $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $32.7 billion, following
a 7.3 percent increase in June. Unfilled orders, down $3.9 billion or 1.7 percent to $226.8 billion, have declined for four
consecutive months and are at the lowest level since $222.2 billion in February 1990. Excluding aircraft and parts, nondefense
new orders decreased 1.0 percent, shipments were up 0.5 percent, and unfilled orders declined 0.9 percent.

New orders for defense were down $1.9 billion or 26.4 percent to $5.3 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts.
The July decrease follows a 22.3 percent increase in June. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 2.0 percent to $8.2 billion,
following a 2.8 percent increase in June. Unfilled orders declined $2.9 billion or 2.2 percent to $132.4 billion. Unfilled orders
have declined in ten of the last eleven months and are at the lowest level since $132.2 billion in July 1984.

advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed

‘This report presents
estimates us nondurable goods and data will be published September 2, 1992. ‘I\\e advans:: report on durable goods for August is scheduled
far Seneenber 25 195, Tike seneet i reales hee oF aan eee crn aan Teport on durable goods for Augut is schedule


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
trem Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Jul Jun M Ma Ju Jun July | change
" 7 -
19928 1998 1998 Nae] Aas] sash 1993 iso | suryo291
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments . .. 125481 | 125,855] 122344] 03] +29] 09] 109837] 137654] tosis. | +45
New orders 92.1! 119/032] 1231194] 11508] «= 3a] 428) 24 ’ 132/84 | 113%602 73
Unfilled orders’ | | 461228 | 467677] 470338} “ia | 06] 05] 462!386 | 467881 | 494871
117265 | 117,798 | 114504] 05] +29] -05| 102.647] 129210] 97,984] +48
113760 | 116034] 113954] 20] +18] 03] roo;ler | 1251885 | 105/281 49
328,797 | 332/302] 334060 11] 05 | 02 | 330570 | 3331056 | | 347259
weomene eens 103,572 | 103,575} 99,952 oo} +36 11| 91655] 113,220} 873756 | +49
pmenee one r y oe r , .
New orders 97123 | 100914] 97416] -38| +36) 26] ae,100] 108390] aia? 92
Primary metals :
Shipments... u2i7} 1296] 1223] 07] +07] +10] 10,446) rngis| 10,003] +44
New orders.” - 11204] v'sid] 7 | 19] 436] +05] i008] —11’816 f 22
Untilled orders 2102 | 20 207 oa] +12} oS] 2tia0s 7245 | 22373 43
Sreecninery and equipment: | 91 254| 21643 | 206 as} +50 oo} 18370] 25,167] 17,445 453
New orders... | 20872) 21, 2007] 19] +591 03 " 24;600] 17616 | +19
Unfilled orders Susa5 | 51927 | 52, 0 07) 10] 51457] 51'881 1857 62
Blectronic and other
cageerical cavipment : 17960} 17284] 17157] + +07} 02] 15979| 18,640] 147as] +8.
low orders 17954] 17475) 781 | 427] 423) 05 099 | 18351] i270) +54
Untitled orders 1/944 | 41/950 | 41759, ¥03| 02] ates | zoos | a3'a71 30
inna cauipment : 32,330} 32,829] 31,880 S| +30 -19| 25,528 35,714 24,935 +24
Nef orders 26,623 30810] -152| +19] 66) 19582] 33/515 | 29/266 | 33.1
Untied orders 200200005 255,475 | 261182} 262'627| 22} 06) 4] 2547798 | 2607744 | 2757359 “75
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*

“Total jpments 40,937! 40,907] 38,443} +01] +64] 21] 35,998] 46281] 33,924 +61
i 34083 | 38139 | 36323] 106] +50] 44] 291156] a2'as0] 301531 285
Oem ers 359,219 | 366073 | 368841 “-19] 08] 06] 358518 | 3657360 | 389'046 78
Necro | 32,721 | 32,850] 30603) 04] +73] 09] 28808) 37,737| 26777) +76

phipments eevee sees ws} 309791 30469| 70) +17) +19] 24975) 35541] 3t’a32] “a5
THe sere | 226,788 | 230,698 | 232/569 1:7} 08) 01] 226,702 | 230335] 2at'as 61
Exgluding aircraft and 26319 | 26,196 | 24955] +05] +50) +04] 23,007] 30,206] 21,233] +84
Shipments... +++ 650] 25'91t | 24°68 10{ +50] +416] 22415] 29596] 21475 | +44
New onters, oe Bmn| aaa] Tams) 09) 04] 04]  73;685| 747277) 777752 $2
Defense :
f 8216 8,057 7940] +20] +428/ 65 7,190 8,544 7147] +06
Shipments» $272 7,160 5854 | -26.4| +223] 277 4181 6,939 7321 42.9
New orders, 132/431 | 135/375] 136.272] 22] 07) “aa| iste] 13q'825| 147612 | 107

(NA) Not available, " Revised.

1 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendas-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted
for trading-day or calendar-month veriallons.

Based on advance sample.

‘The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handting equipment,
metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machinery, compute’ and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, elecrieal transmission and
distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and
lank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment,

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and lank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

ina Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
industry ‘Year ago Tuly | July 1991-| Year ago Tuly] July 1991-|— Year ago July] July 1991-
July 1991 | _1987-1991 | June 1992] July 1991} 1987-1991] June 1992] July 1991] 1987-1991] June 1992
Durable goods... . 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 07 08 0.2 0.2 01
Primary metals | ae 0.7 1.0 03 0.2 13 08 0.2 04 1.3
Industrial machinery and 0.1 08 07 03 16 1.0 0.0 Os 0.2

Electronic and other

_ electrical equipment . 08 08 04 14 08 Ll 07 03 03
Transportation equipme: 0.6 0.4 04 2.6 14 1s 0.2 0.2 O1
Nondefense capital 08 04 07 38 25 16 03 04 01
Defense capital nooks 0.7. 07 it 38 18 58 02. O1 02

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent chanaes of the advance and final estimates. The monthiv avarnoaa ara the almnia auaranae nf the differance sithris


Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

150 150
New Orders

140 }- Shipments |-] 140

130 | | 130

120 4 120

110 + -| 110

100 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
Jul. 1990 - Jul. 1992
NonDefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45
New Orders

4ob

25 1 1 1 1 1 i

i _L i i

Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Jul. 1990 - Jul. 1992

Jul

25
Jan Mar May Jul

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.