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CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

9.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 9-2

9.2 TOTAL SHIPMENTS ..................................................................................................... 9-3

9.2.1 Distribution across Equipment Class Groups.................................................................. 9-3

9.2.2 Distribution across Horsepower....................................................................................... 9-3

9.2.3 Distribution across Pole Configurations and Enclosures................................................. 9-4

9.2.4 Distribution across Equipment Classes, Sectors and Applications.................................. 9-5

9.3 SHIPMENTS PROJECTION .......................................................................................... 9-5

9.3.1 Shipments Model ............................................................................................................. 9-5

9.3.2 Shipments in Standards Cases ......................................................................................... 9-7

9.3.3 Shipments Data ................................................................................................................ 9-7

LIST OF TABLES

Table 9.2.1 Share of Motors by Equipment Class Group in Percent...................................... 9-3

Table 9.2.2 Share of Motors by Horsepower Range............................................................... 9-3

Table 9.2.3 Share of Motors by Horsepower Rating .............................................................. 9-4

Table 9.2.4 Share of Motors by Pole Configuration and Enclosure (All Equipment 

Class Groups)....................................................................................................... 9-5

Table 9.3.1 Annual and Cumulative Shipments Projection.................................................... 9-8

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 9.3.1 Shipments Index vs. Private Fixed Investment Index in Selected 

Equipment and Structure...................................................................................... 9-6

Figure 9.3.2 Shipments Projection by Scenario Case ................................................................ 9-7
9-2

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) analyzes shipments of affected equipment as a 

part of its rulemakings about new or amended energy efficiency standards for equipment that 

impact national energy use. Estimates of shipments are a necessary input to calculating national 

energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) of the investment in more efficient 

equipment; both of these calculations are required to analyze the impact of proposed new or 

amended energy efficiency standards. Shipments also are a necessary input to the manufacturer 

impact analysis (MIA), which DOE conducts to prepare its notice of proposed rulemaking 

(NOPR). The MIA estimates the impact of potential efficiency standards on manufacturers of the 

affected equipment, in this case electric motors, and assesses the direct impact of such standards 

on employment and manufacturing capacity. This chapter describes the method DOE used to 

project annual shipments for electric motors under base- and standards-case efficiency levels and 

the results obtained.

DOE developed a shipments model to predict shipments of electric motors covered in this 

analysis. The core of the shipments analysis is a model that DOE developed to simulate how 

future purchases are incorporated into an in-service stock of aging motors that are gradually 

replaced. DOE’s motors shipments projections are based on forecasts of economic growth and do 

not incorporate a distinction within shipments between replacements and purchases for new 

applications.

To formulate its total shipments estimates, DOE began with shipments data from a 

market research report1, input from interested parties, and responses to the Request for 

Information (RFI) published in the Federal Register (76 FR 17577 (March 30, 2011)). Based on 

a database of motor field data2, U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Industrial Reports3,4, and 

stakeholder input, DOE then developed a distribution of shipments across each of the three 

equipment class group (NEMA Design A and B, NEMA Design C, and fire pump motors). 

Within each category, motor shipments were split into several horsepower ratings, rotation 

speeds (corresponding to 2-pole, 4-pole, 6-pole, and 8-pole motors), and two enclosure types 

(open or enclosed) to arrive at shipments at the equipment class level.

The shipments model is prepared as a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that is accessible on 

the Internet (http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/). Appendix 10-A 

discusses how to access the shipments model and other related spreadsheets and provides basic 

instructions for using them. The rest of this chapter explains the shipments model in more detail. 

Section 9.2 provides a summary of the data DOE used to develop estimates of the shipments of 

covered electric motors by equipment class and for each sector and applications. Section 9.3 

describes the methodology that underlies development of the model and presents the shipments 

projection. 
9-3

9.2 TOTAL SHIPMENTS

Based on a market research report1 and stakeholder input and responses to the RFI, 

annual shipments of covered motors were estimated to total 4.56 million units in 2011. 

DOE drew upon two data sources to develop a distribution of the total shipments across 

the 510 equipment classes: input from interested parties, and data from extensive field 

measurements collected by the Washington State University Extension Energy Program (WSU), 

Applied Proactive Technologies and the New York State Energy Research and Development 

Authority (NYSERDA) 2 (“WSU/NYSERDA database”).

9.2.1 Distribution across Equipment Class Groups

DOE derived the distribution by equipment class group from the WSU/NYSERDA 

database (Table 9.2.1).

Table 9.2.1 Share of Motors by Equipment Class Group in Percent

NEMA Design A and B NEMA Design C Fire Pump

99.68 0.20 0.12

9.2.2 Distribution across Horsepower

Shipments were first distributed by horsepower range, based on U.S. Census Bureau’s 

Current Industrial Reports3,4 and input from interested parties (Table 9.2.2). 

Table 9.2.2 Share of Motors by Horsepower Range 

Range hp 2011 Shipments

(1,000)

Percentage of Total

(%)

1 – 5 2,668 58.5%

6 – 20 1,368 30.0%

21 – 50 342 7.5%

51 – 100 114 2.5%

101 – 200 46 1.0%

201 – 500 23 0.5%

Total 4,560 100.0%

DOE then split shipments by individual horsepower rating, based on the distribution 

observed in the WSU/NYSERDA database (Table 9.2.3).
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Table 9.2.3 Share of Motors by Horsepower Rating 

Horsepower 

rating

hp

Percentage of 

Total

(%)

1 6.2%

1.5 5.6%

2 10.2%

3 14.5%

5 22.1%

7.5 9.1%

10 8.2%

15 8.1%

20 4.5%

25 2.1%

30 2.0%

40 2.1%

50 1.3%

60 0.8%

75 0.9%

100 0.8%

125 0.4%

150 0.4%

200 0.3%

250 0.3%

300 0.1%

350 0.04%

400 0.1%

450 0.02%

500 0.03%

9.2.3 Distribution across Pole Configurations and Enclosures

DOE derived the distribution by pole configuration and enclosure from the 

WSU/NYSERDA database (Table 9.2.4).
9-5

Table 9.2.4 Share of Motors by Pole Configuration and Enclosure (All Equipment Class 

Groups)

Enclosure Open Enclosed

Range hp 2 poles 4 poles 6 poles 8 poles 2 poles 4 poles 6 poles 8 poles

1 – 5 0.7% 8.1% 1.1% 0.1% 5.0% 19.6% 2.6% 1.4%

6 – 20 1.0% 6.2% 0.6% 0.1% 6.6% 17.0% 1.5% 0.2%

21 – 50 0.3% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 8.1% 1.6% 0.1%

51 – 100 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 4.1% 1.0% 0.1%

101 – 200 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2%

201 – 500 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%

DOE then combined the distribution by horsepower and the share of motors by pole and 

enclosure configuration to estimate the shipment distribution per equipment class.

9.2.4 Distribution across Equipment Classes, Sectors and Applications

DOE used the data presented in Table 9.2.1, Table 9.2.2, Table 9.2.3, and Table 9.2.4 to 

produce market shares for each of the 510 equipment classes. Further, DOE developed a model 

of the applications and sectors for which motors covered in this analysis are used. These 

distributions are presented in chapter 7, Energy Use Characterization.

9.3 SHIPMENTS PROJECTION

9.3.1 Shipments Model

DOE projected shipments of covered motors throughout the 30-year analysis period, 

which stretches from 2015 (the effective date of the standard) to 2044. DOE projects total 

shipments using a model driven by forecasted economic growth. DOE assumed that motors sales 

are driven by economic growth and machinery production growth for equipment including 

motors. 

Based on historical data for the period 1993-2011 on U.S. shipments provided by the U.S. 

Census Bureau3,5

and NEMA6,7 and private fixed investment data from the Bureau of Economic 

Analysis’s (BEA)8,9, DOE assumes that annual shipments growth rate correlate to the annual 

growth rate of private fixed investment in selected equipment and structures10,a including motors 

(Figure 9.3.1). 

 a Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment which incorporates motors is typically included in 

“structures” and not in equipment. Based on RSMeans, DOE estimates that 9 percent of investments in structures are 

related to HVAC equipment.
9-6

Figure 9.3.1 Shipments Index vs. Private Fixed Investment Index in Selected Equipment 

and Structure

DOE developed a relationship between shipments and private fixed investment in 

equipment and structures including motors (indexed to 2001). The relation, derived from a linear 

regression (R2=0.91), is expressed by the following equation:

Shipmentsindex(y) = 1.15126 ∙ FixInvestindex(y) − 15.17265Shipmentsindex(y) =

1.15126 ∙ FixInvestindex(y)-15.17265 [Equation 1, Step 0]

Where:

Shipmentsindex (y) is the shipments index based in 2001 in year y, and

FixInvestindex (y) is the private fixed investment index based in 2001 for selected equipment 

and structure including motors in year y.

DOE projects private fixed investment in selected equipment and structure from 2015 

through 2035 based on the real “gross domestic product” (GDP) growth from the Energy 

Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook for 2011 (AEO2011) for the period 2015–

2035. DOE then extrapolated the GDP growth trend from 2035 to 2044. The steps for the 

calculation are:

1) Based on historical data from the BEA, DOE projected private fixed investment 

in equipment and structure including motors as a share of total private fixed 

investment in equipment and structure for 2015 to 2044. 

2) For 2015 to 2035, DOE used total private fixed investment in equipment and 

structures data (private domestic investment data) from AEO2011 to project

private fixed investment in equipment and structure including motors. 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Index 2001=100

Shipments Index

Private Fixed Investment Index in Selected Equipment and Structure (PPI, 2001=100)
9-7

3) From 2035 to 2044, DOE used AEO 2011 data to estimate a trend for private 

domestic investment as a share of GDP using a linear regression (R2>0.99). DOE 

then projected the GDP for 2035 to 2044 using a quadratic regression based on 

AEO 2011 data (R2>0.99). Using the GDP projection, DOE projected private 

domestic investment and estimated private fixed investment in equipment and 

structure including motors. 

4) DOE used the data on projected private fixed investment in equipment and 

structure including motors and Equation 1 to estimate shipments growth over the 

analysis period (2015–2044).

 Following the same methodology, DOE estimated shipments projections for the 

Reference Economic Growth Case, the High Economic Growth Case, and Low Economic 

Growth Case available in AEO 2011. 

9.3.2 Shipments in Standards Cases

Sales of electric motors may be sensitive to increases in the installed cost that may result 

from efficiency standards. Increased motor prices could affect the repair versus replace decision 

that the user makes and could lead to increasing the longevity of less efficient motors and 

decreased shipments. However, DOE did not find sufficient data to quantitatively estimate the 

impact of increased efficiency levels on shipments and therefore used a price elasticity equal to 

zero as a default. 

9.3.3 Shipments Data

 Figure 9.3.2 shows the annual shipments for each scenario case between 2015 and 2044. 

Figure 9.3.2 Shipments Projection by Scenario Case

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Shipments (Unit: 1,000)

Reference Case Hight Growth Case Low Growth Case
9-8

 Table 9.3.1 shows the annual and cumulative shipments for each equipment class 

grouping for Reference Case

Table 9.3.1 Annual and Cumulative Shipments Projection

Annual Shipments 

thousand units

Equipment Class Grouping 2015 2025 2035 2044 Cumulative 

2015–2044

NEMA Designs A & B 5,072 7,254 9,958 13,005 256,846

NEMA Design C 10 15 20 26 515

Fire Pump 6 9 12 16 309

Total* 5,089 7,278 9,990 13,047 257,671

*Total may not sum up because of rounding.

There are two major assumptions inherent in the shipments model: 

1) The relative market shares of the different equipment classes are constant over 

time. 

2) U.S. production, imports, exports, and therefore shipments (i.e. apparent 

consumption) have the same growth rate as described by the shipments index 

provided by NEMA6,

7 (see section 9.3.1).
9-9

REFERENCES

 1

 IMS Research (February 2012), The World Market for Low Voltage Motors, 2012 Edition, 

 Austin. 

2 Database of motor nameplate and field measurements compiled by the Washington State 

University Extension Energy Program (WSU) and Applied Proactive Technologies (APT) 

under contract with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority 

(NYSERDA). 2011.

3

 U.S. Census Bureau (November 2004), Motors and Generators – 2003.MA335H(03)-1. 

http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/cir/historical_data/discontinued/ma335h/index.html

4 U.S. Census Bureau (August 2003), Motors and Generators – 2002.MA335H(02)-1. at 

 http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/cir/historical_data/discontinued/ma335h/ma335h02.xls

5

 U.S. Census Bureau, Current Industrial Report: Manufacturing Profiles, 1994-1998. 

6 NEMA (2007), Motor Shipments Slip in Third Quarter of 2007, NEMA News, on 05 Dec 

2007.

7 NEMA (2011), Motors Shipments on the Upswing in First Half of 2011, NEMA News, on 18

Aug 2011.

8 Bureau of Economic Analysis (March 01, 2012), Private Fixed Investment in Equipment and 

Software by Type. http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=12&step=1

9

 Bureau of Economic Analysis (March 01, 2012), Private Fixed Investment in Structures by 

Type. http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=12&step=1

10 RSMeans (2011), RSMeans Facilities Construction Cost Data 201, Norwell.