## S0

2 

## Redesignation Request Emissions Summary and 

## Projections

Campbell, KY- Clermont, OH

Introduction



### In January 2015, the Kentucky Division for Air Quality collaborated with the Ohio

Environmental Protection Agency (Ohio EPA) to prepare a redesignation request for the sulfur

dioxide (S0 2 ) 

### National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). This redesignation request

relates to the interstate area of portions of Campbell County in Kentucky and Clennont County

in Ohio. For Campbell County, the portion incudes five Census Tracts: 519.01, 519.03, 529.00,

531.00, and 533.01. And for Clermont County, the portion is Pierce Township.

Selection of Years

In developing this S0 2 

### redesignation request, the initial step was to select the years from base

year to maintenance year. After discussions between representatives from the Kentucky

Division for Air Quality and the Ohio EPA, the appropriate years were selected. For the base

year, 2011 was selected to develop a comprehensive S0 2 

### emissions inventory for which

projected emissions could be estimated for several future years.

For the attainment year, 2014 was selected since it corresponds to one of the years in the design

value showing attainment. These design value years are 2012, 2013, and 2014. The 2014

attainment year also corresponds to the year where the permanent and enforceable improvement

in air quality leading to attaimnent occurred due to Clermont County's Walter C. Beckjord

facility permanently ceasing operations.

Below is a summary of the years chosen for each state.

YEARS FOR 

### S0 2 REDESIGN A TION REQUEST- KENTUCKY Al\'D OHIO



### Year Year Type Kentucky Ohio

2011 Base Year 

# " "

2014 Attainment Year 

# " "

2017 Interim Maintenance Year 

# "

2020 Interim Maintenance Year 

# "

2022 

### ' Interim Maintenance Year 

# "

2027 Maintenance Year 

# " 

# "

Therefore, the years for both states used in this redesignation request are:

2011, 2014,2017, 2020,2022, and 2027

The 2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) was used for area and non-highway mobile source

emissions. Along with Census and projected Census data, additional years of2010 Census, 2020

Kentucky Division for Air Quality- january 2015 Page 1 i

I



## iCensus, and 2030 Census years are also used as part of the population and growth rate

calculations.

Below are detailed explanations for projections on population growth factors and future year 

### S0 2

emissions from point, area, highway mobile, and non-highway mobile sources. The Kentucky

Division for Air Quality has provided all emission and projection data for both counties in an



### Excel spreadsheet. Unless otherwise noted, the following narrative applies to both Campbell

County in Kentucky and Clermont County in Ohio.



### Population Growth

There are a total of five growth rates used for projecting Future Year 

### S0 2 emissions. These

growth rates can be divided into three groups based on the specific calculation type.

1) There is only one growth rate in the first group: the 2011-2014 growth rate. This growth

rate, from the base year to the attainment year, was calculated by simply dividing the

2014 population by the 2011 population.

2) There are two growth rates in the second group: the 2014-2017 growth rate and the

2014-2020 growth rate. Projected from the 2014 attainment year, or Present Year, these

growth rates were projected out towards and including the Future Year. For this growth

rate group, the Future Year was 2020 as it would result in more-accurate growth rates.

The following formula was used in 

### Excel to calculate these growth rates.

Growth Factor= EXP(RATE(Y,-PY,FY))"n

Where Y = Total Years between Present and Future Years

PY =Present Year, in this case, 2014

FY = Future Year, in this case, 2020

n =Number of Years Out From Present Year

Using an example for a growth rate out to the year 2017, the following formula is used.

2014-2017 Growth Factor= EXP(RATE(6,-2014,2020))"3

where 6 represents the total years between 2014 (Present Year) and 2020 (Future Year).

From 2014, projecting 3 years (n) out would represent 2017. A similar formula is also

applied to calculate the growth rate for 2020.

3) The final two growth rates are in the third group: the 2014-2022 growth rate and the

2014-2027 growth rate. Again, projected from the 2014 attainment year, or Present Year,

these growth rates were projected out towards and including the Future Year. For this

growth rate group, the Future Year was 2030 as it would result in more-accurate growth

rates. The 2030 year was also used since 2022 and 2027 falls outside of the range using

the Future Year 2020 indicated in the second growth rate group. The following formula

was used in 

### Excel to calculate these growth rates.

Kentucky Division for Air Quality- january 2015 Page 2

### Growth Factor= EXP(RATE(Y,-PY,FY))"n

Where Y = Total Years between Present and Future Years

PY = Present Year, in this case, 2014

FY = Future Year, in this case, 2030

n =Number of Years Out From Present Year

Using an example for a growth rate out to the year 2022, the following formula is used.

2014-2022 Growth Factor= EXP(RATE(16,-2014,2030))"8

where 16 represents the total years between 2014 (Present Year) and 2030 (Future Year).

From 2014, projecting 8 years (n) out would represent 2022. A similar formula is also applied to calculate the growth rate for 2027.

Point Source Emissions

For Campbell County, Kentucky, point source facilities were first identified within the five

Census Tracts. There were a total of 11 facilities located within these Census Tract boundaries.

After the facility locations were found, the 2011 base year emissions from those point sources

were obtained from the Kentucky Emissions Inventory database. Finally, point source emissions

were projected for the years 2014 attainment year, 2017,2020,2022, and 2027. Growth rates for

these projected years were used as described in the section titled, "Population Growth."

For Pierce Township in Clermont County, Ohio, the only point source facility is Walter C. Beckjord Station. However, in a letter from Duke Energy Ohio, Inc. to the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency that is .dated October 14, 2014, the six coal-fired emissions units (BOO!, B002,

B003, B004, BOOS, and B006) "are permanently shut down and removed from service." The

letter continues to indicate "that authorization to operate the affected units has ceased as of

October 1, 2014." According to Ms. Jennifer Van Vlerah (Ohio EPA), the facility actually

ceased operation on September 1, 2014. Therefore, this facility only operated for the first eight

months of2014.

Area Source Emissions

The 2011 NEI, the most-recent NEI, was used to obtain 2011 base year area source emissions for

both Campbell County, Kentucky and Clermont County, Ohio. These emissions represent the

entire counties.

The appropriate population percentages were applied to each county (29.0% for Campbell

County, 7.3% for Clermont County). By applying these percentages to the county emissions for

area sources, the five Census Tracts and Pierce Township are now represented.

With the 2011 base year area source emissions now established for the county portions, those

emissions were multiplied by the 2011-2014 growth rate to obtain the 2014 emissions. The 2014

Kentucky Division for Air Quality- january 2015 Page 3

### attainment year emissions were then projected for 2017, 2020, 2022, 

### and 2027 

### by using the

growth rates explained in the section titled, "Population Growth."

Highway Mobile Source Emissions



### The Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments, or OKI, provided the highway

mobile source emissions for 2011 

### base year, 2014 

### attainment year, 2017, 2020, 2022, 

### and 2027.



### The emissions for the specific county portions were not calculated based on population

percentages. Rather, the emissions were more accurately reflected by dividing the vehicle miles

traveled in the portion by the vehicle miles traveled in the entire county.

Non-Highway Mobile Source Emissions



### Just like area source emissions, the 2011 

### NEI was used to obtain 2011 

### base year non-highway

mobile source emissions for both Campbell County, Kentucky and Clermont County, Ohio.

These emissions represent the entire counties.

The appropriate population percentages were applied to each county (29.0% 

### for Campbell

County, 7.3% 

### for Clem1ont County). By applying these percentages to the county emissions for

non-highway mobile source sources, the five Census Tracts and Pierce Township are now represented.

With the 2011 

### base year non-highway mobile source emissions now established for the county

portions, those emissions were multiplied by the 2011-2014 

### growth rate to obtain the 2014



### emissions. The 2014 

### attainment year emissions were then projected for 2017, 2020, 2022, 

### and

2027 

### by using the growth rates explained in the section titled, "Population Growth."

Summary of Emissions



### As indicated in the Excel 

### worksheet titled, "Total Emissions Summary," there is a very significant reduction in S0 2 

### emissions for the subject portions in Campbell County, Kentucky

and Clermont County, Ohio.

Kentucky Division for Air Quality- january 2015 

### Page4REDESIGNATIONREQUEST:POPULATIONANDGROWTHDATACounty:CensusTract519.01-------·519.03f529.00-----531.00533.01Tracts"Popui<J_tionProjections2015:205(J,_CensusDatafor2Q10,2020._<ll1dDataCente_r,__PopulationEstimatl!sfor201l_a_nd2012,"l"_otalhttp://ksdclouisville.edu/fndex.pho/keiJtUcky-demographic-data/estimates/oopulation-and-housinq-units)2010CensusTractandBloc_kData...:=_CampbellCounty,KentuckySta_tl!DataCenter,_http://ksdc.louisville.edu/index.pho/kentuckv_:demographic-data/decennial-census_!::mailfrorrr_JenniferVanVIerah,_ghioEPA,Clermo_rrtCounty,Ohio_December8,2014.*Indicatesthatcountv-widegrowthfactorswereaduetolimitedaccessto<nPrifirJoeFargacs-KentuckyDivisionforAirQualitydata.redesignation requestincludesfiveCensusTractsinCampbellCounty,KY(519.01,519.03,529.00,531.00,and533.01)andPierceTownshipinClermontCounty,OH.--January2015POINTSOURCEEMISSIONSj,_-··-•--;/....;D,/,·j---=--......>-···..•.:....,..1-.--··.-------------------GriffinIndustriesInc----.•..,._..KY______1.._._·-·o·.....PartnersIILP·Alexandria-----------------IIPdmn__0.000.000.65Theareaforthis502redesignationrequestincludesfiveCensusTractsinCampbellCounty,KY(519.01,519.03,529.00,531.00,and533.01)andPierceTownshipinClermontCounty,OH.2011baseyearpointsourceemissionsweredeterminedbasedonlocationwithinthesespecificlocalizedareasineachcounty.ForCampbellCounty,2011pointsourceemissionswereobtainedthroughtheKentuckyEmissionsInventorydatabase.Growthratesinthe"PopGrowth"worksheet,shadedingray,werethenappliedtotheFutureYearemissionsfor2014(attainmentyear),2017,2020,2022,and2027.TheWalterC.BeckjordfacilityinClermontCountypermanentlyclosedduring2014.17,2014JoeForgoes-KentuckyDivisionforAirQuality--January2015AREASOURCEEMISSIONSS02ME.A:..(Portionsl...······-·----------·----------··ENTIRE!PORTIONPORTION----------·BaseYearBaseYearAttainmentPORTIONProjected2017PORTION2020PORTIONProjected2022tpy-·PORTIC>I'I_IProjectedCOUNTYCampbell,KY------------------Clermont,OHAREAfOtAl:::::zoutpy20.77103.06123Jti__f'_opulatior:_%29.0%7.3%2011tpy6.03-------r---2014tpy6.04-----7.63'tpy6.06j--Itpy6.087.8813.!:15_j---2027tpy6.036.027.868.0013.89'14.02--.__-·+----t---·---------------1---=1::::_-··--+-+-------j__------j---1'-----·-------__l_!_+-,-iI·-j-----------i--··--,--!1-·----i···-·-jTheareaforthis502redesignationrequestincludesfiveCensusTractsinCampbellCounty,KY(519.01,519.03,529.00,531.00,and533.01)andPierceTownshipinClermontCounty,OH.2011baseyearareasourceemissionswereobtainedfromtheNationalEmissionsInventory(U.S.EPA).Growthratesinthe"PopGrowth"worksheet,shadedingray,werethenappliedtoprojecttheFutureYear502emissionsfor2014(attainmentyear),2017,2020,2022,and2027.Countyportionswereappliedbymultiplyingthe2011emissionsfortheentirecountybythePopulation%.EmissionsfromtheportionswerethenbeprojectedouttoFutureYears.DataSource:NationalEmissionsInventory(2011},U.S.EPA--1-JoeForgoes-KentuckyDivisionforAirQuality--January2015HIGHWAYMOBilESOURCEEMISSIONS'--I/J·...AR.E.A:.··-7T.-_j_.PORTIONPORTION--BaseYearAttainmentrPORTIONPORTIONj___PORTIONProjectedPORTIONProjected--···----2011201420222027COUNTY-tpytpytpyItpy.________··-··--tpy-+-tpyCampbell,KY1.5471.260___,._____··--1.5060.331-1--1.3680.300···-t------------------------·Clermont,OH0.3400.277t!WVMO.BILI!1.881I·1.8!111.7!J7IIuoz1.6681.§!!71-i··-r=-.-±---,+------------I--'------------i-------+--____:-__-----------··--··_l__-------------------1---··-.··j-·---------------------------------------··,-----±Theareaforthis502redesignationrequestincludesfiveCensusTractsinCampbellCounty,KY(519.01,519.03,529.00,531.00,and533.01)andPierceTownshipinClermontCounty,OH.AndyReserfromtheOhio-Kentucky-IndianaRegionalCouncilofGovernments,orOKI,providedthehighwaymobilesourceemissionsfor2011baseyear,2014(attainmentyear),2017,2020,2022,and2027.Theemissionsforthespecificportionsofeachcountywerenotcalculatedbasedonpopulationpercentages.Instead,theemissionsweremoreaccuratelyreflectedbydividingthevehiclemilestraveledintheportionbythevehiclemilestraveledintheentirecounty.---·---·-------------------__,,__DataSource:Ohio-Kentucky--Indiana{OK/)RegionalCouncilofGovernmentsl---1JoeForgoes--KentuckyDivisionforAirQuality------------------------January2015NON-HIGHWAYMOBilESOURCEEMISSIONSIf.Jtii....JI....•.-•·ICOUNTY---'.ENTIRE,Base-Year·1,--2011Population-'•.."___tpy%PORTIONBaseYear2011PORTIONAttainment2014tpyItpy---j·--PORTION2017PORTIONProjected-t20201_P()RTIONProjected2022tpyItpy------ttpyPORTION----------Projecte_!l__l2027tpy0;20().20ICampbell,KY_0.6829.0%-------0.20+___0.20__Clermont,OHI2.40NON•HWVtotAll3.08+-r11_----7.3%0.170.18r·M1.,•o.31•__!-1---=j.-j------1-l----;--------t!------1-,_______----------+--------j__I0.18I0.19(),38/;>J---.0.38-ro.as--·-l=-j'---1--1---1----------·TheareaforthisS02redesignationrequestincludesfiveCensusTractsinCampbellCounty,KY(519.01,519.03,529.00,531.00,and533.01)andPierceTownshipinClermontCounty,OH.I-···-·--2011baseyearnon-highwaysourceemissionswereobtainedfromtheNationalEmissionsInventory(U.S.EPA).Growthratesinthe"PopGrowth"worksheet,shadedingray,werethenappliedtoprojecttheFutureYearS02emissionsfor2014(attainmentyear),2017,2020,2022,and2027.Countyportionswereappliedbymultiplyingthe2011emissionsfortheentirecountybythePopulation%.Emissionsfromtheportionswerethen1---beprojectedouttoFutureYears.-----------····-DataSource:NationalEmissionsInventory(2011),U.S.EPAJoeForgoes-KentuckyDivisionforAirQuality--January2015TOTALEMISSIONSSUMMARYPORTIONPORTIONPORTION_-'_0•io0N..POR!I()N-·····-··BaseYearAttainmentProjectedProjectedProjected-·-------------____,_____--------------20112014201720202022------··-----------·-----------------·-------·-···-·····tpyTheareaforthisS02redesignationrequestincludesfiveCensusTractsinCampbellCounty,KY(519.01,519.03,529.00,531.00,and533.01)andPierceTownshipinClermontCounty,OH.2011baseyearemissionswereobtainedfromavarietyofsources.Pointsourceemissionswereobtainedfromstateemissionsinventorydatabases.2011baseyearareaandnon-highwaymobilesourceemissionswereobtainedfromtheNationalEmissionsInventory(U.S.EPA).AllhighwaymobilesourceemissionswereobtainedfromtheOhio-Kentucky-IndianaRegionalCouncilofGovernments,orOKI,inCincinnati,Ohio.Growthratesinthe"PopGrowth"worksheet,shadedingray,werethenappliedtoprojecttheFutureYearS02emissionsfor2014(attainmentyear),2017,2020,2022,and2027.Whereapplicable(areaandnon-highway),countyportionswereappliedbymultiplyingthe2011baseyearemissionsfortheentirecountybythePopulation%.EmissionsfromtheportionswerethenbeprojectedouttoFutureYears.JoeForgoes-KentuckyDivisionforAirQuality--January2015