UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | os.

NEWS :
2 = 2 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 PURCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable March 24, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95-66
M3-1(95)-2

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 1995
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $1.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $163.2 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.4 percent January increase, and is the first decrease
since last October.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decline, $1.3 billion or 5.0 percent to $24.7 billion, following a 0.7
percent January increase. The February decline, largely due to communication equipment, was the first since last July. Primary metals
decreased $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $15.3 billion. This follows a 1.7 percent decline which was the first since last July. All other
major industry groups declined, except industrial machinery and equipment, transportation equipment, and instruments and related
products. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.5 billion or 1.5 percent to $31.4 billion; the largest increase was for
computer and office equipment. This follows a 9.4 percent January increase. Transportation equipment increased $0.4 billion or 1.1
percent to $40.1 billion; a large increase in aircraft and circraft parts more than offset a decline in shipbuilding and tanks. The
transportation increase follows a 5.0 percent January decrease and two consecutive monthly increases.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in February increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $161.6 billion, following a 1.1 percent
January increase. This is the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the fourteenth in the last nineteen months. Industrial machinery
and equipment had the largest increase, $1.0 billion or 3.5, percent to $30.2 billion; increases were widespread. This is the third
consecutive increase and the ninth in the last ten months. Transportation equipment increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent :o $40.3
billion, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Primary metals decreased $0.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $15.1 billion, the first decline
since January 1994. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $24.5 billion. This is the second
consecutive monthly decline following fourteen consecutive increases. Fabricated metal products and lumber and wood products also
decreased.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in February increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $436.5 billion, the sixth consecutive
monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $70.4 billion; most
industries increased. This follows a 2.6 percent January increase and is the nineteenth in the last twenty months. Primary metals was
up $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $29.6 billion, the fifteenth consecutive monthly increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment
increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $48.7 billion, due to electronic components. This is the sixth consecutive monthly increase.
Transportation equipment, down nearly every month since September 1991, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $202.4 billion.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders increased $0.2 billion or 3.4 percent to $6.4 billion; an increase in aircraft and aircraft parts more than
offset a decline in shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 32.7 percent January decrease. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 2.3
percent to $6.6 billion, following a 6.7 percent increase in January. Unfilled orders decreased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $111.7
billion, following a 0.5 percent decrease in January.

Nondefense - New orders increased 0.1 percent to $41.9 billion, following a 10.9 percent January increase. Shipments

increased $1.2 billion or 3.0 percent to $41.1 billion, the fourth consecutive increase. Unfilled orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.4
rcent to $203.1 billion, the fifth increase in the last six months. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.7 billion or
.0 percent, the third decline in the past four months; shipments increased $1.0 billion or 2.8 percent to $35.9 billion, the seventh

consecutive monthly increase; unfilled orders increased $0.9 billion or 1.0 percent, the twenty-first consecutive monthly increase.

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 31, 1995, The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for April 26, 1995. This report is
available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Burcau’s online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe
(1-800-848-8199), The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-457-1214) can provide content information and general guidance.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Feb, Jan. Dec. | Jan; | Dec. | Nov Feb, Jan, Feb.
1995 1995° 1994} Feb? | Jan’ | Dec. 1995 1995" 1994 | Feb.95/94
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments . 161,569 | 161,044 | 159,299 03 161,270 | 142,691 | 145,679 | +10.7
New orders sii] 1631224 | 64:38 | 162310 08 | +b4] +19] 164797 | 1517252 | 146,68 +123
Unfilled orders ore 436,454 | 434,799 | 4313305 | +04] +0.8 | —+0.7 | 439°536 | 436,009 | 426,750 43.0
Excluding defense :

Shipments... . -| 154,966 | 154284] 152,966] +04] +09] +16] 134954] 137.149] 139,095} +114
New orders 2.2) © | 156806 | 158/333 | 153.089 10] +34] 04 | 158640 | 146015 | 141337 | +122
Unfilled orders’): +. | 324,715 | 3223875 | 318/826 | +06 0.0 | 326,895 | 323,209 | 309,661 +556

With unfilled orders :
Shipments 128,154 | 127,603 | 125,621 | +04 16] +12] 125,995 | 112,414] 112,877 | +116
New orders 129;809 | 131097 | 128,632 -10] +19] +19 | 129522 | 120975 | 113;886 | +13.7

Primary metals :
Shiprnents . 15,262 | 15,114 - +6. 15,436 | 14,508 | 12,367 | +248
New orders | 15550 | 15/813 “19 7] +80] 16,169 | 16176 | 13148. | 423.0
Unfilled orders 29;469 | 291181 42 30:260 | 291527 | 23,566 | #284
Industrial machinery and equipment:

Shipments . 29,143 | 28,805 +16] 29503] 24659} 25,601 | +152
New orders" 30/907 | 28243 | 415 | 494] 60 | 30963 | 27361 | 26,603 | +164
Unfilled orders’: 69177 | 67/413 42. “0 71358 | 69/898 | $5,681 | +282

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments. 24,527 | 24614 | 24,641 +0. 23,946 | 21,604} 21,000] +140
New orders”: 24,660 | 25:98 | 25.773 3.0 | +07] +40] 24538} 24387 | 21507 | #141
Unfilled orders 48,739 | 48.606 | 47,272 3] 428] 42 49507 | 48'915 | 46,944 +55

Transportation equipment :

Shipments 40313 | 40,221] 40,002} +02] +05] + 42,250 | 35,844 | 40,241 $5.0
New orders | 40.145 | 39/698 | 41774 | +1 30] +58 | 423324 | 35:59. 38,480 | +10.0
Unfilled orders’: 202,399 | 202/567 | 203/090 “011 x +09 | 202'996 | 202'22 | 214:825 “55

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total =
Shipments ... . 47,662 | 46,626 | 45,353 | +22] +28] -08] 45,812] 38590] 40,827 | +122
New orders’: - - 48333 | 48088 | 46980 | +05] +24] +14] 46805 | 41302 | 40468 | 415.7
Unfilled orders 3147868 | 314197 | 3122735 | 402 | +05] +05 | 316726 | 3157733 | 318%061 “04
Nondefense :
Shipments. 41,059 | 39,866 | 39,020 422] +02] 39496] 33,048 | 34,243
New orders : aris | 41,883 | 37.759 | +0.1 | +109] -74 | 40648 | 36,065 a
Unfilled orders’ ! S222] 203129 | 202/273 | 200/256 +10] -0.6 | 204.085 | 2027933 | 200/972
Excluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments 35,81 34,888 | 34,367 8 15 34,484 | 29,166 | 29,775
New orders : 36,76 371498 | 34:789 20] +78 -15 | 35,679 | 32.776 | 30/999
Unfilled orders” * * 94856 | 93.957 | 91347 29) +05] 95812 | 94617 | 787583
Defense :
Shipments 6,603 6,760 6,333 23| +67] 69 6,316 5,542 6,584
New orders 22220002027 6418 6.205 9221 | +34] 327] +656 6.157 31237 53351
Unfilled orders 0222022222] 11nt739. | 111924 | 112/479 02 ~05| +26 | 112,641 | 112/800 | 117,089

(NA) Not available." Revised.

* Shipments and new orders are the tls for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or ealenar-momth variations

* Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision, One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,

0 be calculated. Further deus on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are cootained in our most recent annual
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), "Manufacture's’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992,"

‘The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense = ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, reirigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical ansmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
feomplete airraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pans, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital goods include = ordnance, communication equipment, aieraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation ‘equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Feb. ] Feb. 1994-| Year ago Feb.] Feb. 1994-| Year ago Feb. | Feb, 1994-

Feb. 1994 | 1990-1994 | Jan. 1995 | Feb. 1994| 1990-1994] Jan. 1995] Feb. 1994] 1990-1994] Jan. 1995

Durable goods ............ 05 05 07 0.0 05 0.7 06 02 02

Primary metals... 03 03 04 Ol 06 08 10 03 03

Industrial machinery and equipment 0.0 02 06 99 3.2 35 0.0 0.0 0.0
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . On 02 06 02 02 03 00 0.0 0.0

Transportation equipment 06 oa 08 04 02 oa 0.0 0.0 0.0

Nondefense capital goods . 02 08 07 0.1 00 o1 00 0.0 0.0

Defense capital goods .. . om 05 10 00 ol ol 0.0 0.0 0.0

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to «
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
185 185

New Orders
WBP---------------------------------4 ——— |4175

Shipments

165

155

145

135

125 1 . il i 1 1 L 1 1 1 L il 1 125
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1993 - Feb. 1995

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
48 48

New Orders

a Shipments |-] 43

29 bt L 1 n L L 1 L n n n L i PY.)

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1993-Feb. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.