FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EST 

Chris Savage or Jessica Young 

Manufacturing and Construction Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (07)-1 

CB07-032

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

January 2007 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in January 

decreased $17.1 billion or 7.8 percent to $203.9 billion, 

the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This 

followed two consecutive monthly increases including a 

2.8 percent December increase. Excluding 

transportation, new orders decreased 3.1 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders decreased 7.8 percent. 

 

 Transportation equipment, down following two 

consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, 

$12.3 billion or 18.0 percent to $56.2 billion. This was 

led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased 

$11.3 billion. 

 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, 

up five of the last six months, increased $0.5 billion or 

0.2 percent to $211.4 billion. This followed a 0.5 

percent December increase. 

 Computers and electronic products, up three of the last 

four months, had the largest increase, $3.6 billion or 

10.8 percent to $36.6 billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

January, up twenty of the last twenty-one months, 

increased $1.0 billion or 0.1 percent to $695.5 billion. 

This was at the highest level since the series was first 

stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.2 

percent December increase. 

 Machinery, up twenty-nine consecutive months, had 

the largest increase, $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $78.8 

billion. 

Inventories 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, 

up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased $1.0 

billion or 0.3 percent to $297.7 billion. This followed a 

0.7 percent December increase. 

 Transportation equipment, up four of the last five 

months, had the largest increase, $1.0 billion or 1.4 

percent to $69.5 billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in January 

decreased $16.3 billion or 19.9 percent to $65.4 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.9 billion or 1.4 percent to $66.0 

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.1 

percent to $372.6 billion. Inventories decreased $0.7 

billion or 0.6 percent to $115.6 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in January 

increased $0.9 billion or 10.7 percent to $8.8 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $8.4 

billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 

percent to $139.3 billion. Inventories increased $0.6 

billion or 4.2 percent to $14.7 billion. 

Revised December Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $404.9 

billion (revised from $405.2 billion); shipments, $394.8 

billion (revised from $395.9 billion); unfilled orders, 

$694.4 billion (revised from $693.8 billion); and total 

inventories, $483.1 billion (revised from $482.1 billion).

Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders 

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>.

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on March 6, 2007, at 10:00 a.m. EST. 

The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for release on March 28, 2007, at 8:30 a.m. EDT. See back 

page for survey description. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan Change

2007 2 2006 r 2006 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2007 2 2006 r 2006 2007 2006 07/06

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 211,440 210,923 209,827 0.2 0.5 0.3 190,259 209,410 185,155 190,259 185,155 2.8

 New Orders4.............................. 203,896 221,034 215,067 -7.8 2.8 2.2 193,576 227,154 186,071 193,576 186,071 4.0

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 154,463 153,099 153,738 0.9 -0.4 -0.3 140,270 152,883 136,778 140,270 136,778 2.6

 New Orders4.............................. 147,655 152,454 148,553 -3.1 2.6 -0.9 138,944 151,849 137,329 138,944 137,329 1.2

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 201,272 200,848 199,850 0.2 0.5 0.3 182,162 198,049 177,607 182,162 177,607 2.6

 New Orders4

.............................. 193,566 210,017 201,932 -7.8 4.0 0.8 182,884 210,706 180,645 182,884 180,645 1.2

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 145,370 146,741 146,365 -0.9 0.3 0.4 130,456 146,922 126,633 130,456 126,633 3.0

 New Orders4

.............................. 146,408 161,919 158,337 -9.6 2.3 2.3 141,658 169,994 133,367 141,658 133,367 6.2

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 18,799 18,940 18,711 -0.7 1.2 -0.7 18,706 16,606 17,325 18,706 17,325 8.0

 New Orders.............................. 18,429 18,715 18,437 -1.5 1.5 -1.8 18,955 17,035 18,233 18,955 18,233 4.0

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 25,028 25,004 24,399 0.1 2.5 -0.3 23,549 22,868 22,470 23,549 22,470 4.8

 New Orders.............................. 25,371 25,027 24,403 1.4 2.6 0.6 24,512 22,385 23,546 24,512 23,546 4.1

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 26,489 28,174 27,839 -6.0 1.2 -1.4 24,010 27,833 23,636 24,010 23,636 1.6

 New Orders.............................. 27,463 30,264 28,081 -9.3 7.8 -8.6 26,511 29,604 26,708 26,511 26,708 -0.7

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 36,598 33,039 35,535 10.8 -7.0 2.0 30,969 38,839 29,163 30,969 29,163 6.2

 New Orders4.............................. 28,051 30,419 29,930 -7.8 1.6 8.0 24,504 37,019 23,588 24,504 23,588 3.9

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 6,225 6,398 6,580 -2.7 -2.8 35.8 5,060 8,148 5,501 5,060 5,501 -8.0

 New Orders.............................. 6,148 6,473 6,699 -5.0 -3.4 36.8 4,983 8,223 5,171 4,983 5,171 -3.6 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 5,446 5,257 5,845 3.6 -10.1 -0.1 4,430 6,677 4,953 4,430 4,953 -10.6

 New Orders.............................. 5,497 6,798 5,908 -19.1 15.1 11.9 4,922 7,984 4,906 4,922 4,906 0.3

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 8,582 5,067 6,732 69.4 -24.7 -12.1 7,885 5,328 5,818 7,885 5,818 35.5

 New Orders4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 10,347 10,126 9,900 2.2 2.3 -1.7 9,272 9,997 8,814 9,272 8,814 5.2

 New Orders.............................. 10,942 10,139 10,230 7.9 -0.9 -2.7 10,458 9,612 9,961 10,458 9,961 5.0

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 56,977 57,824 56,089 -1.5 3.1 2.2 49,989 56,527 48,377 49,989 48,377 3.3

 New Orders.............................. 56,241 68,580 66,514 -18.0 3.1 9.9 54,632 75,305 48,742 54,632 48,742 12.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 38,323 40,091 38,366 -4.4 4.5 2.8 35,810 35,784 36,510 35,810 36,510 -1.9

 New Orders.............................. 38,359 40,418 38,396 -5.1 5.3 2.2 36,438 36,860 37,431 36,438 37,431 -2.7 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 9,082 8,108 8,235 12.0 -1.5 0.2 6,727 9,844 5,037 6,727 5,037 33.6

 New Orders.............................. 7,440 18,728 14,263 -60.3 31.3 4.2 7,565 24,952 6,458 7,565 6,458 17.1

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,802 3,780 3,737 0.6 1.2 0.6 2,877 4,574 2,552 2,877 2,552 12.7

 New Orders.............................. 2,892 6,368 5,464 -54.6 16.5 46.9 3,074 8,282 4,284 3,074 4,284 -28.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 37,202 37,816 37,354 -1.6 1.2 -1.2 33,764 36,740 35,370 33,764 35,370 -4.5

 New Orders.............................. 37,399 37,890 37,472 -1.3 1.1 -1.4 34,004 36,194 35,293 34,004 35,293 -3.7

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 74,349 75,159 75,724 -1.1 -0.7 1.6 63,872 81,545 62,270 63,872 62,270 2.6

 New Orders.............................. 74,273 89,706 85,173 -17.2 5.3 3.3 70,608 103,180 64,554 70,608 64,554 9.4

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 65,993 66,921 67,521 -1.4 -0.9 1.8 57,054 72,520 55,809 57,054 55,809 2.2

 New Orders.............................. 65,449 81,735 73,998 -19.9 10.5 -0.3 61,349 90,425 60,837 61,349 60,837 0.8

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 60,111 61,755 62,252 -2.7 -0.8 2.1 53,285 65,833 53,337 53,285 53,337 -0.1

 New Orders.......................... 61,626 65,560 63,295 -6.0 3.6 -1.0 57,387 68,475 57,223 57,387 57,223 0.3

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,356 8,238 8,203 1.4 0.4 0.2 6,818 9,025 6,461 6,818 6,461 5.5

 New Orders.............................. 8,824 7,971 11,175 10.7 -28.7 35.8 9,259 12,755 3,717 9,259 3,717 149.1

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are no

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, whic

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-3(05), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2005

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vendin

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; a

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, an

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; an

medical equipment and supplies

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipme

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separatel
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan 2007/

2007 2 2006 r 2006 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2007 2 2006 r 2006 2006

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 695,458 694,420 679,242 0.1 2.2 1.8 702,425 691,223 579,162 21.3

 Total Inventories....................... 297,703 296,698 294,683 0.3 0.7 0.3 296,474 287,943 273,315 8.5

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 316,195 314,421 309,999 0.6 1.4 0.5 316,349 309,790 277,657 13.9

 Total Inventories....................... 228,181 228,128 226,019 0.0 0.9 0.2 227,649 222,231 209,488 8.7

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 542,382 541,506 527,270 0.2 2.7 1.7 546,947 538,340 440,739 24.1

 Total Inventories....................... 278,589 278,001 275,505 0.2 0.9 0.3 277,560 269,776 254,647 9.0

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 695,458 694,420 679,242 0.1 2.2 1.8 702,425 691,223 579,162 21.3

 Total Inventories....................... 232,771 231,386 229,881 0.6 0.7 0.3 232,027 225,044 212,116 9.4

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 25,712 26,082 26,307 -1.4 -0.9 -1.0 26,050 25,801 26,182 -0.5

 Total Inventories....................... 29,765 29,980 29,967 -0.7 0.0 -0.3 30,019 30,058 25,862 16.1

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 53,956 53,613 53,590 0.6 0.0 0.0 52,853 51,890 48,181 9.7

 Total Inventories....................... 38,498 38,335 37,982 0.4 0.9 0.2 38,402 37,377 34,637 10.9

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 78,839 77,865 75,775 1.3 2.8 0.3 79,267 76,766 64,777 22.4

 Total Inventories....................... 47,451 47,464 46,473 0.0 2.1 0.2 47,360 45,936 43,718 8.3

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 121,938 121,903 119,456 0.0 2.0 1.0 122,794 121,374 107,818 13.9

 Total Inventories....................... 46,823 46,722 46,203 0.2 1.1 0.8 46,479 44,888 43,184 7.6

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 4,387 4,464 4,389 -1.7 1.7 2.8 4,387 4,464 4,372 0.3

 Total Inventories....................... 4,456 4,463 4,389 -0.2 1.7 4.0 4,323 4,130 4,041 7.0

 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 37,392 37,341 35,800 0.1 4.3 0.2 37,230 36,738 32,965 12.9

 Total Inventories....................... 10,209 9,978 10,077 2.3 -1.0 -1.3 10,323 9,602 10,356 -0.3

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 23,270 22,675 22,662 2.6 0.1 1.5 23,239 22,053 18,981 22.4

 Total Inventories....................... 14,276 14,378 14,194 -0.7 1.3 0.8 14,275 13,901 13,076 9.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 379,263 379,999 369,243 -0.2 2.9 2.9 386,076 381,433 301,505 28.0

 Total Inventories....................... 69,522 68,570 68,664 1.4 -0.1 0.5 68,825 65,712 63,827 7.8

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 19,955 19,919 19,592 0.2 1.7 0.2 20,649 20,021 18,013 14.6

 Total Inventories....................... 24,663 24,376 24,548 1.2 -0.7 1.1 24,505 23,287 23,342 5.0 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 230,626 232,268 221,648 -0.7 4.8 2.8 234,904 234,066 168,855 39.1

 Total Inventories....................... 25,259 25,050 24,347 0.8 2.9 0.4 24,919 23,890 21,870 13.9

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 47,091 48,001 45,413 -1.9 5.7 4.0 47,617 47,420 47,240 0.8

 Total Inventories....................... 11,625 11,682 12,064 -0.5 -3.2 1.1 11,432 11,375 11,307 1.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,480 12,283 12,209 1.6 0.6 1.0 12,146 11,906 11,718 3.7

 Total Inventories....................... 51,368 51,249 51,200 0.2 0.1 -0.1 51,114 50,071 49,011 4.3

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 511,883 511,959 497,412 0.0 2.9 1.9 518,568 511,832 416,979 24.4

 Total Inventories....................... 130,273 130,398 128,269 -0.1 1.7 0.2 129,524 126,301 120,597 7.4

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 372,624 373,168 358,354 -0.1 4.1 1.8 377,079 372,784 291,942 29.2

 Total Inventories....................... 115,576 116,300 114,043 -0.6 2.0 0.3 114,834 112,426 106,359 8.0

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 169,718 168,203 164,398 0.9 2.3 0.6 169,636 165,534 143,092 18.6

 Total Inventories................... 97,041 97,102 95,559 -0.1 1.6 0.3 96,548 94,109 89,618 7.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 139,259 138,791 139,058 0.3 -0.2 2.2 141,489 139,048 125,037 13.2

 Total Inventories....................... 14,697 14,098 14,226 4.2 -0.9 0.0 14,690 13,875 14,238 3.2

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4 

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations), 

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value), and 

inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-in-process, and finished goods). The M3 includes 

approximately 4,200 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous 

companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89 

categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-tomonth changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-tomonth movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the survey show 

that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 62 percent of the shipments estimates at the total 

manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is based on a 

voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,200 reporting units and provide an 

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a 

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,200 companies would 

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a 

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore, 

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are 

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for 

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full report. 

Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made 

later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. 

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.

2007 Release Dates for M3 Survey 

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M. 

Jan 2007 February 27, 2007 March 6, 2007 

Feb 2007 March 28, 2007 April 4, 2007 

Mar 2007 April 25, 2007 May 2, 2007 

Apr 2007 May 24, 2007 June 4, 2007 

May 2007 June 27, 2007 July 3, 2007 

Jun 2007 July 26, 2007 August 2, 2007 

Jul 2007 August 24, 2007 August 31, 2007 

Aug 2007 September 26, 2007 October 4, 2007 

Sep 2007 October 25, 2007 November 2, 2007

Oct 2007 November 28, 2007 December 5, 2007

Nov 2007 December 27, 2007