UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

AND
STATISTICS
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ARIE
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Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 April 28, 1998
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-73
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(98)-03

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUPACTURERS' SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
March 199:
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $0.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $186.6 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.8 percent February decrease and is the
second increase in the last three months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent, the fourth consecutive
monthly increase. Year-to-date, new orders are 5.9 percent above the same period a year ago.

Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the fourth consecutive month, had the largest increase, $0.7 billion or 1.9 percent to
$37.3 billion. This follows a 3.3 percent February increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four
months, increased $0.6 billion or 2.0 percent to $31.5 billion, due to electronic components. This follows a 1.0 percent February
decrease. Primary metals, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.7 billion or 4.4 percent to $14.8 billion, following a
2.8 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.6 billion or 1.4 percent
to $42.1 billion; decreases, led by aircraft and parts, more than offset increases, led by motor vehicles and parts. This follows a
6.7 percent February decrease.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in March increased $2.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $190.9 billion. This follows a 2.9
percent February increase and is the third increase in the last four months. Year-to-date shipments are 7.6 percent above the same
period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up for the second consecutive month, had the largest increase, $1.5 billion or 3.3 percent to $46.0
billion; led by motor vehicles and parts, all component industries increased. This follows a 4.4 percent February increase.
Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the fourth consecutive month, increased $0.7 billion or 2.0 percent to $36.8 billion.
This follows a 1.2 percent February increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four months, increased
$0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $31.1 billion, following a 4.7 percent February increase. Primary metals, down for the first month
since December, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $15.4 billion, following a 0.8 percent February increase.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in March decreased $4.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $513.0 billion.
This follows a 0.5 percent February decrease and is the third decrease in the last four months. Transportation equipment, down
three of the last four months, had the largest decrease, $3.9 billion or 1.5 percent to $258.7 billion, mostly due to aircraft and

arts. This follows a 0.7 percent February decrease. Primary metals decreased $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $33.3 billion. This
follows two consecutive monthly declines and twelve consecutive monthly increases. Instruments and related products, down for
the second consecutive month, also declined. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the second consecutive month, increased
$0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $73.7 billion, following a 0.7 percent February increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment
increased $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $57.0 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent February decrease and is the second increase in
the last three months.

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE_ New orders in March, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.5
billion or 8.6 percent to $4.9 billion, following a 29.4 percent February decrease. Shipments, up six of the last seven months,
increased $0.2 billion or 2.5 percent to $6.7 billion, following a 0.9 percent February increase. Unfilled orders, down for the
second consecutive month, decreased $1.9 billion or 1.8 percent to $102.1 billion, following a 1.2 percent February decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in March, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.4
billion or 0.8 percent to $49.9 billion, following a 3.6 percent February decrease. Shipments, up for the fourth consecutive month,
increased $1.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $51.3 billion. This follows a 1.8 percent February increase. Unfilled orders, down for the
first month since December, decreased $1.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $266.5 billion, following a 0.1 percent February increase.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $43.3 billion, the first decrease since November;
shipments increased $1.0 billion or 2.4 percent to $43.3 billion, the third increase in the last four months; and unfilled orders
increased slightly to $103.8 billion, the eighth increase in the last nine months.

© REVISED FEBRUARY DATA Revised scasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$337.9 billion (revised from $337.5 billion); new orders, $335.4 billion (revised from $334.8 billion); unfilled orders, $543.1
billion (revised from $542.9 billion); and total inventories, $458.2 billion (revised from $457.6 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published May 6, 1998, The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May 28, 1998 at 10:00 AM. This
report is available -on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870),


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Mar, Feb, Jan, | Feb= | Jan. | Dec.- Mar, Feb, Mar.
1998 1998" 1998 | Mar? | Feb" | Jan. 1998 1998" 1997 | Mar.98/97
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments... . . 190,878 | 188,277 | 183,053 14 2, 206,573 | 188,905 | 189,274
New orders): 186626 } 185932 | 187481 | +04 08 | +16 | 200/487 | 188418 | 186,908 +73
Unfilled orders | 513,011 | 517,263 | 519,608 08 + 516,041 | 522'127 | 502,060
Excluding defense :
Shipments .......... 184,142 | 181,708 | 176,542] +13] +29 199,353 | 182,179 | 182,674
New orders 1.2: 181'760 | 180/611 | 179943 | 406 | +04] +14 | 193,778 | 182,727 | 179,248 48.1
Unfilled orders’: Lill] aioj2s | 413307 | 414408 0.6 03 4111526 | 417,101 | 389,874 45.6
With unfilled orders =
Shipments .......... 156,870 | 154,970 | 150999} +12] +26] -06] 170,217] 153,831 | 155,695 49.3
New orders 152;618 | 152,625 | 155,427 00 “18 | 429 | 1647131 | 153,344 | 153,329 +70
Primary metals :
Shipments 15,412 | 15,504] 15,378 06 | +08] +08] 16018} 15,965] 15,781 +15
New orders "| | 14805 | 15488 | 15,065 44 | 428] -19 | 15330] 16.975 | 16,279 -58
Unfilled orders 331275 | 33,882 | 33,898 “18 do} 09 | 34709} 35,397 | 31,382 | +106
Industrial machinery and e
Shipments. te 36,781 | 36,052 | 35,623 | 424 +1 +03 | 43,390 | 35,426 | 38,390 | +13.0
New orders 377285 | 36,594] 35, 419 | 433 | +23 | 43/002 | 36:088 | 37,436 | +149
Unfilled orders | 737699 | 73,195 | 721653 | +0.7 -03 }022 | 74410 | 73,707 +04
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 31,076 | 31,002 | 29,618 | +0 - 33,366 | 30,237 | 31,505 +
New orders 31's15 | 30884 | 31211 | +2.0 “10 | +21 | 31932 | 29913 | 293379 487
Unfilled orders: | 569381 | 56,512 | 36630 | +0. x 2 35% 57397 | 52/046
Transportation equipmen|
Shipments ..... 46,009 | 44,518] 42,641 | +33 1 30,004 | 47,390 | 44,037 1
New orders" | | 42,081 | _42°676 | 45,752 “1a 470 | 47/220 | 45,758 | 43.874 476
Unfilled orders 222)! 258,711 | 262,639 | 264.481 “15 2 | 260/891 | 263,675 | 258,204 +10
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments . . 53,067 | 56,644} 35680] 425] +17 66,546 | 54,694] $8,218] +143
New orders 54731 | 55.565 | 59,648 “15 ~68| +129 | 63,790 | 54142 7831 | +103
Unfilled orders 368,544 | 371,880 | 372959] -09 “03 371,407 | 374,163 | 367,263 +11
Nondefense :
Shipments 51331 | 50,073 | 49,169 | 425] +1 +16] $9326 | 47,968 | 51618] +149
New orders" | ¥ 50,244 | 52,110 08 “36 | +13.5 | 57081 | 48:4! S171 | +138
Unfilled orders. 266,458 | 267/924 | 267,755 705] #01 | “+151 | 266892 | 2695137 | 255,077 +46
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . 43,306 | 42,280] 41274 | 42.4 24 00] 50136 | 40,533 | 44117 | #13.7
New orders 43311 | 433365 | 42249 Ol) +426] 42.7) 49382 | 41932 | 43.978 | +123
Unfilled ord 103/849 | 103,844 | 102,759 0.0 11] #10] 104,283 | 105/057 | 98,033 +64
Defense :
Shipments. 6.736 6,569 6s] 425] +09 7 7.220 6,726 6,600
New orders "|: 4/866 53321 7538 86] 294] 488 6,709 691 7,660 “124
Unfilled orders 102,086 | 103/956 | 105,204 “1 “1 + 1043515 | 105,026 | 112,186

(NA) Not available.‘ Revised.

® Shipments and new orders are the tals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-momth variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calenda-momh variations

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision, One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes ervors of coverage,
response and nonteporing, Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannct be calculated. Further deals on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual
femhmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1956."

“The Capital Goods Industries include Nondetense = ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, penetul industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
‘complete aieraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aireraft missles, und space vehicle ‘od parts ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment,

‘Defence capital gonis include ordnance, communication equipment, airerafl, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1997-|~ Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1997-| Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1997-
Mar. 1997 | 1993-1997 | Feb. 1998 | Mar. 1997 | 1993-1997| Feb. 1998| Mar. 1997] 1993-1997 | Feb. 1998
Durable goods 02 03 03 08 05 05 03 02 0.

Primary metals . . wl 09 07 03 18 08 07 05 04 03

Industrial machinery and equipment... ol 06 03 ia 10 07 07 4 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment .... 0.1 03 04 o. 06 Ld ot 02 05

Transportation equipment 03 06 07 04 24 Vs o4 03 02

Nondefense capital goods 07 06 06 15 24 09 04 04 02

Defense capital goods .. 02 05 08 46 43 46 03 03 03

Note; The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
205 205

New Orders
195 F- - ~~ rt ee re te te ered Shipments |-] 195

185 185

175 175

165 165

155 L L L 1. L L L 1 il L L L L 155
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar

Mar. 1996 - Mar. 1998

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
59 59

New Orders

54-| Shipments | ----------------------------------4 54

39 bend L n L n n L L L L i 1 LJ 39

Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov’ Jan Mar
Mar, 1996 - Mar. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.