UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

AND
STATISTICS
COMMERGE | oittirion
NEws oe
= —_ WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 February 26, 1998
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-34

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852
M3-1(98)-01

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
January 1998
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $1.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $185.3 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 5.5 percent December decrease and is the sixth
increase in the last eight months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent, the second consecutive monthly
increase. New orders for January are 5.4 percent above January 1997.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the second consecutive month, had the largest increase, $1.0 billion or 3.4 percent
to $31.6 billion. This follows a 3.6 percent December increase. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months,
increased $0.9 billion or 2.1 percent to $43.1 billion; a large increase in aircraft and parts more than offset decreases in the other
components. This follows a 23.1 percent December decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the second consecutive
month, increased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $34.9 billion. This follows a 1.4 percent December increase. Primary metals
decreased $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $15.1 billion, following a 3.2 percent December decrease. This is the third decrease in the
last four months.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in January, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.5 billion or 1.4 percent
to $182.8 billion. This follows a 1.3 percent December increase. January shipments are 6.6 percent above January 1997.

Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, had the largest decrease, $1.1 billion or 2.6 percent to $42.2 billion;
decreases in motor vehicles and parts and railroad equipment more than offset an increase in aircraft and parts. This follows a 1.1
percent December decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.9 billion
or 2.9 percent to $29.7 billion. This follows a 1.5 percent December increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, down three of
the last four months, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $35.2 billion. This follows a 4.1 percent December increase.
Primary metals, up for the first month since September, increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $15.3 billion, following a 0.4
percent December decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in January increased $2.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $517.4 billion.
This follows a 0.2 percent December decrease and is the fifth increase in the last six months. Electronic and other electrical
equipment had the largest increase, $1.9 billion or 3.5 percent to $57.0 billion. This follows a slight December decrease and is the
first increase since September. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.3 percent to
$261.8 billion, as a large increase in aircraft and parts more than offset decreases in the other components. This follows a 0.4
percent December decrease, Instruments and related products, up for the third consecutive month, also increased. Primary metals,
down for the first month since December 1996, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $34.0 billion, following a 0.4 percent
December increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.3
percent to $72.6 billion, following a 1.2 percent December decrease.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in January, down for the first month since October, decreased $0.6
billion or 9.8 percent to $5.8 billion, following a 5.5 percent December increase. Shipments, up four of the last five months,
increased $0.3 billion or 4.4 percent to $6.5 billion, following a 10.2 percent December decrease. Unfilled orders, down twelve of
the last thirteen months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $103.0 billion, following a 0.2 percent December increase.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in January, up eight of the last nine months, increased $5.0
billion or 10.9 percent to $50.8 billion, following a 22.0 percent December decrease. Shipments, down three of the last four
months, decreased 0.1 percent to $48.3 billion. This follows a 2.9 percent December increase. Unfilled orders, up five of the last
six months, increased $2.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $267.3 billion, following a 0.9 percent December decrease. Excluding aircraft
and parts, new orders increased $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $41.3 billion, the second consecutive monthly increase; shipments
decreased $0.6 billion or 1.5 percent to $40.6 billion, the third decline in the last four months; and unfilled orders increased $0.7
billion or 0.7 percent to $102.5 billion, the sixth increase in the last seven months.

e@ REVISED DECEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$336.4 billion (revised from $337.4 billion); new orders, $335.2 billion (revised from $336.2 billion); unfilled orders, $541.1
billion (revised from $541.2 billion); and total inventories, $453.4 ion (revised from $453.7 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on wo key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 5, 1998. The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for March 25, 1998 (at 8:30 A.M.)

This rannet ic anilahle an the ray af iccna thranah the Nenarimant af Cammarcn’s anlina Eranamio Rutlatin Revard (N81) (907-A87.2870


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jan, Dec, Nov] Dec: | Nov. |  Oct- Jan, Dec. Jan.
1998 1997 1997 | Jan? | Dec’ } Nov. 1998 1997" 1997 | Jan.98/97
DURABLE GOODS
otal:
Shipments 182,770 | 185,289 | 182,847] -14| +13] -04] 160,534 | 187,336 | 152,176 45.5
New orders 185342 | 184027 | 194741 | +0.7 55 | +4.7 | 1701090 | 185%633 | 163;225 +42
Unfilled orders 517371 | 514,799 | $16,061 | + 02 519,780 | 510,224 | 498/623 +42
Excluding defense :
Shipments 176,288 | 179.078 | 175,933 16] +18 155,190 | 180,107 | 147,207 +54
New orders 179563 | 177,623 | 188,669 | +11 59 | +41 | 165,037 | 175,696 | 157°012 +4:5
Unfilled orders 414355 | 4117080 | 412535 | +08 “04 416,086 | 406,239 | 386,601 +76
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. . 150,869 | 151,860} 150237] -0.7| +11] -01 | 131,725 | 157,868 | 122,315 +17
New orders 153,441 | 150,598 | 162,131 | +19 1] +61 | 141281 | 156165 | 133,364 +59
Primary metals :
Shipments. . 15,348 | 15,272 | 15,337 | +0. 14,608 | 14,070 | 14,390 +15
New orders"? 1105 | 15398 | 15915] -19 32} +18] 15,763 | 14939 | 15:88 “0.7
Unfilled orders’ | 33/993 | 347236 | 34110] -0.7 34,492 | 33/337 | 29/92 +152
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments. . 35,178 | 35,401 | 33,991 0.6 1 29,828 | 38,354 | 27,007 | +104
New orders | 341933 | 34505 | 34027 +12] +14] 16] 30583 | 36815 | 28,358 +78
Unfilled orders’: ysn | 72816 | 73,712 03 I 0 | 73,651 | 721896 | 73,515 +
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 29,714 | 30,617 | 30,164 - +15] 03 | 25,285 | 34,068 489
New orders 31,635 | 30,599 9548 | 434] 436] -19] 30174) 31746] 26972 | +119
Unfilled orders 561962 | 35,041 | 55,059 oo} =n] 57747 | 52858 | 51624 | +119
Transportation equipment :
Shipments . . 42,249 | 43,389 | 43,882 26 -l1| 416] 37.299] 43,112 | 37,118 40.5
New orders.” 43129 | 42°60 | 54987 | +21 | 23:1] +218] 39/089 | 43.873 | 40319 3.1
Unfilled orders’ | 261;792 | 260912 | 262,041 | +03 ~04| 44:4 | 262:507 | 260,717 | 258,936 +14
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments 34,765 | $4,535 | 53,885 412 44,285 39,334 | +12.6
New orders’ | 56576 | 52/208 | 64’800 | +84] -194] +186] 47809 | 64,306 | 43,624 +96
Unfilled orders ! 370,300 | 368489 | 370816 | —+0.5 0.6 371,887 | 368, 365,491 417
Nondefense :
Shipments : 48,283 | 48,324 | 46,971 or] 429] 04] 38941] 57584] 34365] +133
New orders” 2): 50797 | 45;804 | 58°728 | +109] -220] +176] 421756 | 54369 | 38311 | +116
Unfilled orders | | ! 267,284 | 2647770 | 267,290 | +0.9 -0.9 | “+46 | 268,193 | 264378 | 253:469 45.8
Excluding aircraft and parts:
shipments . 40,624 | 41,233 | 40,034 as| + 33,175 | 48,033 +110
: 41347 | 413049] 40,498 | 40.7] +14] 2:7 | 35199] 47154 | 31738] +109
Unfilled orders”: 102471 | 101,748 | 101932 | +0.7 - 5 | 103;380 | 101,356 48.1
Defense :
Shipments ...... 6,482 6211 6914] +44 46.5 5,344 7,229 4,969 +18
New orders" | 2!) 3,779 6,404 6,072 “98 | 453] +285 5/053 97937 53313, “49
Unfilled orders’: | 103,016 | 103,719 | 103,526 0.7} +02] —-08 | 103,694 | 103/985 | 112,022 74

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

" Shipments and new orders are the tas for the period and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-momth variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are suhject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage

response and nonteporing. Since the survey panel is nt a probally sample, estimates of sampling error cans be calculated, Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annuz
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), "Manufacturers" Shipments, inventories, and Orders: 1987-1

"The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery. special industr

yy beneral finery, comput Tefrgeration, healing and service indusiry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment

Complcteairaft. miss, and space Vehicles, aireraft mss, an! space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, raoad equipment, and seach and navigaion cqupment
‘Defense capital goods include : ordnance, ‘communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, unks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Tan. | Jan, 1997- | Year ago Tan, | Jan, 1997-| Year ago Tan. | Jan. 1997-

Jan. 1997 | 1993-1997 | Dec. 1997 | Jan. 1997| 1993-1997] Dec. 1997| Jan. 1997| 1993-1997 | Dec. 1997

Durable goods 01 0.5 03 05 07 05 03 02 02

Primary metals . . | 4 04 03 04 06 06 oa 02 02

Industrial machinery and equipment 03 09 05 02 14 07 0.0 03 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 03 10 05 3.0 14 12 1s 06 06

‘Transportation equipment 06 04 05 04 05 14 02 02 02

Nondefense capital goods . . 06 1s 06 02 13 07 ou 0.1 02

Defense capital goods 17 a 08 24 39 411 02 03 02

Note ; The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard 1
for the months specified.


Computer and Office Equipment
New Orders and Shipments

Billions of Dollars
10

9.5

9

8.5

8

75

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

Jan. 1996 - Jan. 1998

New Orders Shipments

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.

Computer and Office Equipment
Unfilled Orders

Billions of Dollars
10.5

10

9.5

9

8.5

8

7.5 be l i i i i Hl 1 L lL lL 1 lL
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

Jan. 1996 - Jan. 1998
Unfilled Orders

Note:All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars,