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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1994 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
Advance Report Regular Report
Report. Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1993 Thur., Jan. 27 Thurs., Feb. 3
January 1994 Thur., Feb. 24 Thurs., Mar. 3
February 1994 Wed., Mar. 23 Wed., Mar. 30
March 1994 Wed., Apr. 27 Wed., May 4
April 1994 Wed., May 25 Thurs., June 2 ~
May 1994 Thur., June 23 Thur., June 30
dune 1994 Wed., July 27 Wed., Aug. 3
July 1994 Wed., Aug. 24 Wed., Aug. 31
August 1994 Wed., Sept. 28 Wed., Oct. 5
September 1994 Wed., Oct. 26 Wed., Nov. 2
October 1994 Wed., Nov. 23 Fri., Dec. 2
November 1994 Fri., Dec. 23 Thur., Jan 5, 1995

The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders press
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Sandy Sollinger at (301) 763-2604.



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | witttrtioy
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 BURCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth November 24, 1993
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB93-204
M3-1(93)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
October 1993
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $2.7 billion or 2.0 percent to $135.8 billion, the
highest level on record, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.1 percent
increase in September and is the third consecutive monthly increase. Year to date, 1993 new orders are 8,3 percent above
the same period a year ago.

Bight of the ten major groups had increases. The largest increase was in transportation equipment, up $1.7 billion
or 5.5 percent to $32.7 billion, as increases in aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts more than offset a decrease in
shipbuilding and tanks. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.9 percent, the fifth
onsecutive increase. Instruments and related products and industrial machinery and equipment also had large increases.

.ipments

Shipments of durable goods in October increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $137.6 billion, the highest level on
record. This follows a 2.2 percent increase in September. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease,
down $0.7 billion or 3.3 percent to $19.3 billion, due to electronic components. Transportation equipment had the largest
increase, up $1.3 billion or 3.7 percent to $36.5 billion, primarily due to motor vehicle and parts and aircraft and parts.
Excluding transportation equipment, shipments were down $1.2 billion or 1.2 percent. Year to date, durable goods shipments
are 7.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in October decreased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $426.7 billion, the lowest level
since June 1988. This is the eighth consecutive monthly decline and twenty-seventh in the last thirty-two months.
Transportation equipment, down for the eighteenth consecutive month, had the largest decrease, down $3.7 billion or 1.7
percent to $218.2 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts. This is the lowest level since January 1989. Excluding
transportation equipment, unfilled orders were up $1.9 billion or 0.9 percent. Electronic and other electrical equipment had
the largest increase, up $1.4 billion or 3.1 percent to $45.8 billion, primarily due to electronic components. Industrial
machinery and equipment increased $0.6 billion or 1.2 percent to $51.6 billion, with increases in nearly all categories.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $0.7 billion or 11.6 percent to $5.7 billion, with declines in all categories except
aircraft and parts. This follows a 2.1 percent decrease in September. Shipments were up $0.4 billion or 5.0 percent to $7.9
billion, following a 5.9 percent increase in September. Unfilled orders, down for nine consecutive months and twenty-one of
the last twenty-two months, decreased $2.2 billion or 1.8 percent to $119.7 billion, the lowest level since November 1983.

Nondefense - New orders increased $1.4 billion or 4.4 percent to $32.3 billion, following a 3.2 percent decrease in

September. Shipments were up $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $33.5 billion, following a 1.4 percent decrease in September.

‘nfilled orders, down seventeen of the last nineteen months, declined $1.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $199.6 billion, the lowest

el since June 1989. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.4 billion or 1.5 percent, the eighth increase in

se last nine months; shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent, the first decrease since April; and unfilled orders
increased $1.0 billion or 1.4 percent, the ninth increase in the last eleven months.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published December 3, 1993. ‘The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled
for December 23, 1993. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (IN-8-1) (202
482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Perce;
cha
Oct Sept, Aug. | Sept: | Aug | July- Oct, Sept.” Oct.
15388 1993 1985 | “Okt? | Sept | Aug. 1993? 1993 1992 | Oct9.
DURABLE GOODS
137,610 | 137,521 | 134521] +01 | 422] +41 | 144,279 | 147,012 | 132,242 49.1
orders 1353800 | 133142 | 131752) +20] +11| 425 | 141795 | 140241 | 130/473 487
Untitled orders | 426,676 | 428,486 | 432,865 04 -10] 0% | 4233197 ] 425/681 | 455,010 “10
Exgluding defense :
pment 129,705 | 129,996 | 127.415 420] 447] 136479 | 138,971 | 124,748 49.4
New orders 130090 | 126684] 1255154] 42.7] 412] 432 | 135:570 | 133/613 | 122579 | +10.6
Unfilled orders’ 307,014 | 306,629 | 309;941 | +01 “0.7 | 304745 | 305,654 | 325,958 “65
With unfilled orders :
hipments ... 2... 0.20.20 109,504 | 110,175 | 108,447 +16] +371 113,170 | 119,306 | 105,954 +68
Rew orders 2200000022252) 189684 | 108986 | 188698 40.1] +18] 110/686 | 112/535 | 108185 +6:
Primary metals :
Shipments . 11320] 11,534] 11318 +19] 417] 11,829 | 12,004 | 11,689 2
New orders 11324. | 11490 | 117044 +40] +17] 11365} 11190 | 10,836 +49
Unfilled orders 22244] 22/040 | 22084 02) -12| 20; 2u371 | 194 TA

Industrial machinery and eq
pment 24,230 | 24,418 | 23.886 08 | +22] +17] 23,791 | 26590} 20,939 | +13.6
New orders 24366 | 24555 | 24103] +13} +19] +16 | 24577 | 26434 | 20,860 | +178
Unfilled orders | 51/603 | 50967 | 50830 +12] +03] +04] 51404] S618 | 50,753 +13
Electronic and other
19324 | 19.984] 19,654 4221 19,793 | 22411 | 18,411 475
orders 20688 | 20.523 | 19/839 434] 30 1266 | 22,188 | 18,795 | +13.
Untitled orders : 45817 | 44,4 43,914 +0. 45,490 | 44017 | 42/334 475
Transportation equipment :
shipments. 36455 | 35,170] 34,127] 43: +106 | 39,681 | 36,268 | 35,310] +124
New orders 32723 | 31011 | 31366 | +55 +74) 36536 | 317632 | _34;829 +49
Unfilled orders’: °° 218150 | 2217882 | 226/041 17 <12 | 217369 | 2207514 | 251,888 -13.7
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total :
Shipments Le 41,417] 40,885 | 40,931 01 0,245 | 44,978 | 37,703
orders. 22. 381046 | 37432 | 38590 | +16 30] +34 | 377631 884 | 37,046 te
Untitled orders <<! 319,275 | 322,646 | 326,099 : “Ul ~0.7 | 317,888 | 320/502 | 352,588 98
Nondefense :
Shipments... 33,512 | 33,360 | 33,825 | +05 +66 | 32,445 | 36,937 209
orders... 32336 | 30974 | _31:902 | +44 +63 | 31406 | 34256 | 29,152 477
Uatied Sraers : 199,613 | 200,789 | 203,175 0.6 199,436 | 200/475 | 223,536 -10:8
Excluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments - 28,433 | 28,611 | 27,776 06] 43.0 22,770 | 31810} 24,758 | +122
39'435 | 29008 | 28062 | +15] 434) 417] 28909] 31912 | 24626] 4174
Uatiledcraers’ 73482 | 72/480 | 72:083 | +14] 406] 404] 73,305 | 72,166 | 70,894 43.4
Defense :
Shipments veveee 7,905 1525 710g | 45.0] +59] 64 7,800 8,041 7,494 44.1
New : 33710 6,458 6598 | -11.6 21 88 6,225 6,628 7894 211
United orders’ © 119,662 | 121,857 | 122/924 -18 9} 04 | 1187452 | 120,027 | 129/052 “82

(NA) Not available.‘ Revised.

" Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month varatc

* Based on advance sample,

2-The Capital Gods Inds inchde Nondefense< ornare and acessories, scam engines and urine, imal combustion engines, cnstrucon mining anata handing equipment, meabwaking machinery, sil ind
actin, Feneal inh! machinery, comput ard ce equipment, retgeraion, heting and serve nur machinery, lesa tatemisin 20d ‘industrial apparans, equipm:
Complete atcaft. missiles. and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines nd parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

‘Defense capital goods include: ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank componens, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago Det | Oct. 1952-| Year ago Oct. | Oct. 1992-| Year ago Oct. | Oct 1992
Oct. 1992 | 1988-1992 | Sept. 1993 | Oct. 1992] 1988-1992] Sept. 1993] Oct. 1992| 1988-1992] Sept. 199:
Durable goods 02 02 03 03 04 04 0.0 01 04
Primary metals . ol 04 04 15 04 12 07 03 .
Industrial machinery’ and equipment 12 09 07 19 16 09 01 03
Electronic and other
electrical equipment 07 04 05 06 06 07 00 4
‘Transportation equipment . . 04 0.6 07 03 07 Ll Ol 01 v
Nondefense capital goods . . ol 04 06 16 13 il 03 02 °
Defense capital goods... 00 03 06 06 16 22 01 oul v.

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regar
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

160 160
New Orders
| Shipments |-] 150
140 140
130 130
120 120
110 L L L L L L L L L L 1 L L 110
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Oct. 1991 - Oct. 1993
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45

New Orders

40 F-- - eo r r  r r r r  r r r e r  r r r ree tree Shipments |-] 40

25

L L L L L 1 L 1 n i ni i it 25

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Oct. 1991 - Oct. 1993

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.