U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-09

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

October 27, 2004

CB-04-191

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

September 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in September increased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $195.7 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.6 percent August decrease. Excluding

transportation, new orders increased 1.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.9 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 12.1 percent above the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products, up seven of the last ten months, had the largest increase, $3.0 billion or 9.3 percent to $35.6

billion, due to communications equipment, which increased $2.5 billion. 

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in September decreased $2.3 billion or 1.2 percent to $199.1 billion. This

followed a 1.9 percent August increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2004 were 10.9 percent above the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products, down following three consecutive increases, had the largest decrease, $1.4 billion or 3.6

percent to $38.5 billion. Transportation equipment decreased $0.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $53.9 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in September, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased $3.8

billion or 0.7 percent to $539.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent August increase and is at the highest level since May 2001.

Computers and electronic products, up seven of the last eight months, had the largest increase, $4.2 billion or 3.1 percent to

$139.2 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.1

percent August increase. 

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in September, up ten consecutive months, increased $0.8 billion or 0.3

percent to $277.7 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent August increase.

Computers and electronic products, up seven consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $49.5

billion. Primary metals, up eleven consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $19.9 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in September increased $2.2 billion or 26.5 percent to $10.6

billion. Shipments decreased $0.3 billion or 3.4 percent to $8.1 billion. Unfilled orders increased $2.5 billion or 1.7 percent to

$144.1 billion. Inventories increased 0.1 percent to $19.3 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in September increased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent to

$65.2 billion. Shipments decreased $1.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $63.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.7 billion or 0.7

percent to $236.3 billion. Inventories decreased $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $109.1 billion.

! REVISED AUGUST DATA Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders,

$369.9 billion (revised from $370.5 billion); shipments, $376.0 billion (revised from $376.1 billion); unfilled orders, $535.2

billion (revised from $535.6 billion); and total inventories, $461.4 billion (revised from $460.9 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published November 3, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for

October is scheduled for November 24 at 8:30 A.M. EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 199,082 201,412 197,698 -1.2 1.9 0.5 214,739 202,481 197,413 1,762,741 1,589,674 10.9

 New Orders 4

.............................. 195,700 195,283 196,431 0.2 -0.6 1.9 206,585 192,378 189,075 1,728,287 1,542,002 12.1

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 145,163 146,770 145,465 -1.1 0.9 2.1 156,572 147,038 140,411 1,275,391 1,131,359 12.7

 New Orders 4.............................. 143,167 140,783 136,967 1.7 2.8 0.1 151,317 138,371 134,646 1,237,868 1,085,267 14.1

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 189,575 191,527 188,000 -1.0 1.9 0.5 204,234 193,025 187,186 1,675,789 1,510,554 10.9

 New Orders 4.............................. 184,037 185,775 187,041 -0.9 -0.7 3.0 195,477 185,327 180,391 1,641,201 1,457,825 12.6

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 135,930 137,321 136,338 -1.0 0.7 1.7 145,784 137,043 132,609 1,197,365 1,077,817 11.1

 New Orders 4.............................. 139,719 138,691 142,593 0.7 -2.7 3.9 145,653 134,210 130,747 1,225,983 1,081,634 13.3

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 14,577 14,521 14,217 0.4 2.1 3.2 14,894 14,919 11,041 123,136 99,023 24.4

 New Orders.............................. 14,600 14,925 15,020 -2.2 -0.6 7.5 14,324 15,396 10,729 126,911 98,895 28.3

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 23,240 23,182 23,173 0.3 0.0 1.5 24,409 24,288 21,388 203,598 184,143 10.6

 New Orders.............................. 23,054 23,528 23,047 -2.0 2.1 -0.3 23,329 24,590 21,392 209,708 184,088 13.9

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 25,300 24,879 25,116 1.7 -0.9 3.2 26,413 24,038 22,088 219,178 189,666 15.6

 New Orders.............................. 25,933 25,196 24,783 2.9 1.7 0.8 26,716 23,813 21,767 224,408 188,164 19.3

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 38,542 39,972 39,372 -3.6 1.5 3.0 44,181 37,730 41,682 340,743 301,466 13.0

 New Orders 4.............................. 35,562 32,545 30,741 9.3 5.9 -4.2 40,042 28,434 36,582 285,336 256,193 11.4

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,051 8,548 8,643 -5.8 -1.1 6.5 9,881 7,784 10,317 73,815 66,266 11.4

 New Orders.............................. 8,630 8,305 8,261 3.9 0.5 -5.1 10,391 7,657 10,327 73,718 66,978 10.1 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,914 7,489 7,019 -7.7 6.7 3.3 7,710 6,927 7,798 60,983 54,900 11.1

 New Orders.............................. 9,576 7,060 6,597 35.6 7.0 5.0 10,522 5,218 8,722 62,189 60,005 3.6

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 7,171 7,499 7,522 -4.4 -0.3 5.1 8,023 7,270 6,476 63,072 51,489 22.5

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,868 9,192 9,054 -3.5 1.5 3.6 9,889 9,137 9,528 79,031 75,230 5.1

 New Orders.............................. 8,993 9,447 9,040 -4.8 4.5 6.7 9,766 9,331 9,327 80,653 75,238 7.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 53,919 54,642 52,233 -1.3 4.6 -3.7 58,167 55,443 57,002 487,350 458,315 6.3

 New Orders.............................. 52,533 54,500 59,464 -3.6 -8.3 6.5 55,268 54,007 54,429 490,419 456,735 7.4

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 38,266 38,617 36,671 -0.9 5.3 -3.9 40,832 39,971 40,367 347,991 329,752 5.5

 New Orders.............................. 38,215 38,889 36,723 -1.7 5.9 -4.5 40,518 39,991 40,615 349,087 329,664 5.9 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 6,271 6,312 5,904 -0.6 6.9 -5.2 6,938 5,906 6,216 52,635 49,537 6.3

 New Orders.............................. 5,614 6,705 12,475 -16.3 -46.3 103.5 6,580 6,614 5,698 58,109 42,534 36.6

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,498 3,730 3,542 -6.2 5.3 -4.4 4,001 3,516 3,858 33,138 29,071 14.0

 New Orders.............................. 2,549 2,789 3,007 -8.6 -7.2 -41.6 2,281 1,600 3,292 26,475 32,567 -18.7

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 34,636 35,024 34,533 -1.1 1.4 0.0 36,786 36,926 34,684 309,705 281,831 9.9

 New Orders.............................. 35,025 35,142 34,336 -0.3 2.3 -0.9 37,140 36,807 34,849 310,852 282,689 10.0

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 71,583 72,945 71,777 -1.9 1.6 2.0 78,687 69,961 73,771 632,981 568,359 11.4

 New Orders.............................. 75,785 73,203 78,012 3.5 -6.2 6.0 81,278 66,380 73,036 649,562 576,246 12.7

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 63,440 64,513 63,458 -1.7 1.7 1.8 69,911 61,813 65,256 558,729 501,033 11.5

 New Orders.............................. 65,179 64,818 69,879 0.6 -7.2 9.3 71,318 60,047 65,753 573,003 503,596 13.8

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 60,860 61,902 61,415 -1.7 0.8 2.3 67,153 59,484 62,456 537,261 478,662 12.2

 New Orders......................... 63,106 61,533 61,322 2.6 0.3 0.6 68,768 56,729 63,124 545,696 486,478 12.2

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,143 8,432 8,319 -3.4 1.4 3.5 8,776 8,148 8,515 74,252 67,326 10.3

 New Orders.............................. 10,606 8,385 8,133 26.5 3.1 -15.8 9,960 6,333 7,283 76,559 72,650 5.4

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 538,951 535,162 533,792 0.7 0.3 1.2 531,034 531,165 484,496 9.6

 Total Inventories....................... 277,715 276,954 274,834 0.3 0.8 1.1 276,949 279,838 260,534 6.3

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 280,793 275,618 274,106 1.9 0.6 -0.4 276,684 273,916 241,660 14.5

 Total Inventories....................... 209,410 207,919 205,585 0.7 1.1 1.1 208,281 209,742 192,823 8.0

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 376,915 375,282 373,535 0.4 0.5 1.8 372,943 373,677 334,894 11.4

 Total Inventories....................... 253,757 253,085 250,788 0.3 0.9 1.3 252,881 255,600 237,330 6.6

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 538,951 535,162 533,792 0.7 0.3 1.2 531,034 531,165 484,496 9.6

 Total Inventories....................... 216,328 215,931 214,428 0.2 0.7 1.2 216,073 218,286 204,114 5.9

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 20,153 20,130 19,726 0.1 2.0 4.2 19,777 20,347 14,331 38.0

 Total Inventories....................... 19,936 19,630 19,070 1.6 2.9 1.3 20,033 19,658 17,374 15.3

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,563 44,749 44,403 -0.4 0.8 -0.3 44,131 45,211 36,845 19.8

 Total Inventories....................... 34,235 33,968 33,470 0.8 1.5 1.7 34,103 34,179 30,656 11.2

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 48,965 48,332 48,015 1.3 0.7 -0.7 48,112 47,809 40,918 17.6

 Total Inventories....................... 44,944 44,686 44,315 0.6 0.8 1.1 44,645 44,934 40,992 8.9

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 139,156 134,965 134,893 3.1 0.1 -0.8 136,821 132,937 125,033 9.4

 Total Inventories....................... 49,464 48,953 48,583 1.0 0.8 0.7 49,224 50,042 46,467 5.9

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,674 8,095 8,338 7.2 -2.9 -4.4 8,708 8,198 8,836 -1.4

 Total Inventories....................... 6,462 6,279 6,203 2.9 1.2 2.0 6,552 6,637 6,125 7.0 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 52,047 49,385 49,814 5.4 -0.9 -0.8 50,975 48,163 49,852 2.3

 Total Inventories....................... 10,744 10,883 10,712 -1.3 1.6 1.0 10,695 11,100 11,007 -2.8

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,174 15,049 14,794 0.8 1.7 -0.1 15,037 15,160 13,800 9.0

 Total Inventories....................... 13,042 13,020 12,820 0.2 1.6 1.5 12,660 13,019 11,935 6.1

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 258,158 259,544 259,686 -0.5 -0.1 2.9 254,350 257,249 242,836 4.7

 Total Inventories....................... 68,305 69,035 69,249 -1.1 -0.3 1.1 68,668 70,096 67,711 1.4

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,297 15,348 15,076 -0.3 1.8 0.3 14,716 15,030 12,045 22.2

 Total Inventories....................... 21,923 21,679 21,478 1.1 0.9 -0.4 22,088 21,894 20,266 9.0 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 110,716 111,373 110,980 -0.6 0.4 6.3 110,545 110,903 104,491 5.8

 Total Inventories....................... 23,061 24,165 24,426 -4.6 -1.1 3.8 23,192 24,661 25,086 -7.6

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 55,337 56,286 57,227 -1.7 -1.6 -0.9 54,107 55,827 59,460 -9.0

 Total Inventories....................... 11,560 11,486 11,609 0.6 -1.1 -0.6 11,601 11,706 10,971 5.7

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,782 12,393 12,275 3.1 1.0 -1.6 12,806 12,452 10,733 19.3

 Total Inventories....................... 47,789 47,662 47,327 0.3 0.7 0.9 47,616 47,910 45,399 4.9

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 380,349 376,147 375,889 1.1 0.1 1.7 374,378 371,787 346,598 8.0

 Total Inventories....................... 128,395 128,812 128,454 -0.3 0.3 1.1 128,098 130,779 123,999 3.3

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 236,289 234,550 234,245 0.7 0.1 2.8 233,821 232,414 215,965 8.3

 Total Inventories....................... 109,132 109,563 109,066 -0.4 0.5 1.6 108,834 111,277 105,299 3.4

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 150,016 147,770 148,139 1.5 -0.2 -0.1 147,719 146,104 136,087 8.5

 Total Inventories.................. 92,427 91,948 91,292 0.5 0.7 0.9 91,962 93,295 87,425 5.2

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 144,060 141,597 141,644 1.7 0.0 -0.1 140,557 139,373 130,633 7.6

 Total Inventories....................... 19,263 19,249 19,388 0.1 -0.7 -1.7 19,264 19,502 18,700 3.0

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 4,000 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,000 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,000 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.

2005 Release Dates for M3 Survey

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M.

Dec 2004 1/27/05 2/3/05

Jan 2005 2/24/05 3/4/05

Feb 2005 3/24/05 3/31/05

Mar 2005 4/27/05 5/3/05

Apr 2005 5/25/05 6/2/05

May 2005 6/24/05 7/5/05

Jun 2005 7/27/05 8/2/05

Jul 2005 8/24/05 8/30/05

Aug 2005 9/28/05 10/4/05

Sep 2005 10/27/05 11/3/05

Oct 2005 11/29/05 12/6/05

Nov 2005 12/23/05