UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | ssn.
EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. arn a

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth October 28, 1992

(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB92-239
}-1(92)-09

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
September 1992
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $0.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $118.9 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. The September decline follows decreases of 0.4 percent in
August and 2.7 percent in July. Excluding defense, new orders were up $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent. New orders without
transportation equipment increased $1.9 billion or 2.1 percent.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $2.4 billion or 8.4 percent to $26.0 billion, primarily due
to aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts. Primary metals declined $1.1 billion or 10.2 percent to $10.0 billion, the
fargest decrease since 10.7 percent in March 1989. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, up $1.0
billion or 5.6 percent to $18.3 billion, primarily due to electronic components and communications equipment. Fabricated
metal products and industrial machinery and equipment also had large increases.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in September increased $1.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $125.0 billion, following a 1.2
percent decline in August. Excluding defense, shipments were up $0.9 billion or 0.8 percent. Without transportation
equipment, shipments increased $1.7 billion or 19 Percent. The largest increase was in electronic and other electrical
equipment, up $0.7 billion or 4.1 percent to $18.0 billion, primarily due to electronic components and communications
equipment. Transportation equipment declined 0.1 percent, as a decrease in motor vehicles and parts was nearly offset by
increases in aircrakt and parts and railroad equipment.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in September decreased $6.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $452.6 billion, the lowest level
since $450.0 billion in December 1988. This is the thirteenth consecutive monthly decline. Excluding defense, unfilled orders
were down $3.1 billion or 0.9 percent. Without {ransportation equipment, unfilled orders were down $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent.
Transportation equipment had the largest decline, down $5.7 billion or 2.2 percent to $248.3 billion, primarily due to aircraft
and parts. Transportation equipment has declined in twelve of the last thirteen months and is at the lowest level since $245.6
billion in October 1989. Primary metals decreased $0.9 billion or 4.1 percent to $20.4 billion. The largest increases occurred
in fabricated metal products and electronic and other electrical equipment.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in September increased $1.2 billion or 4.1 percent to $29.3 billion. The
September increase follows a 3.9 percent decrease in August. Shipments were up $0.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $31.8 billion,
following a 2.1 percent decrease in August. Unfilled orders, down $2.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $222.7 billion, have declined
for six consecutive months and are at the lowest level since $222.2 billion in February 1990. Excluding aircraft and parts,
nondefense new orders increased 5.5 percent, shipments were up 2.7 percent, and unfilled orders declined 0.2 percent.

New orders for defense were down $1.0 billion or 15.7 percent to $5.4 billion, due to aircraft and parts. The
September decrease follows a 13.6 percent increase in August. Shipments increased $0.7 billion or 9.7 percent to $8.4 billion,
following a 4.8 percent decrease in August. Unfilled orders declined $3.0 billion or 2.3 percent to $128.6 billion. Unfilled
orders have declined in twelve of the last thirteen months and are at the lowest level since $123.2 billion in February 1984.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published November 4, 1992. ‘The advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled
for November 24, 1992. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-
482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's online information service-CEND, information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
ltem Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percen
change
Sey July] Augs] July] June- Se Ay Sept.
Boe i993 | Sepe? | Aug! July 19 1998 13 | Sept.92/91
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments ..... 125,006 | 123,322] 124,789) +14] 12] -08] 133,960] 122,149| 130,137] +29
New orders ||! 18878 | 119337) 119861] “04 | oa] = 27] 127548] iieost | a7} = +23
Unfilled orders 452,630 | 458758 | 462°743{ 13) 09] a | a5tt67| —459'579 83010 73
Pxcluding defense
Shipments 116574] 115635] 116,713] +08} -09} 09] 125,063] 114655 | 120,776] +35
New'orders. || 113/482 | 112930} 114331] 405} 9d} = 15} 120/813] 111234) i772] $35
Unfilled orders 12222222221 24019 | 327111 | 3291807 | 09] og] = “077 | 323761 | 328/011 | 342/887 56
With unfilled orders :
Shipments os --.........{ 102498] 190,572} r92g28] +19| 22] 07] 10,828 , 107,999] +26
New orders 00.000 022 0! 370 | 96587] 97900] 02] 13] 30] 104416 | 93196 | 102573] $18
10877| 10922] itso] 04} 22] ta] ago] taza | 1429
rooia | 11349} anes | 02} 12} 5] 10307] 10899] ar'at
20,42 2u292| 21065 | 41] +1] 406} 19978] arti | —_21°950
Industrial machinery and equipment :
Shipments. me | on. 971 20919} 210s0] +02 06 26} 23,058 19,503} 22,032 +4,
New orders || 21033 | 20552] 201678] 423] 06] 26 106 | 197312 | 22378 | $33
Unfilled orders’. | 1242 | 517180 1547] 401] On] Suais| si'1e7 | 55/091 70
Hlectronic and other
Shipments ee 18,003 17290] 18143] +44 47{ +49] 19,789] 17458] 18,551 +67
New orders : 18326 | 17347| 18157| +56] 45] +39 704 | 171 1 | +112
Unfilled orders’ || 42337 | a2ioia | a'987] FoR] £01 do] azoi9} —aziod | atg07 | “+03

‘Transportation equipment = 31,605 31,633 31,574 o1| +02 38 33,185 30,917 34372 35
New orders | : 25953 | 28343] 27610] 84] +27] 120 | 28313] 36°70 30/544 33
Uinlilled orders 2202002000 248,277 | 253929] as7219| 22} 3] 1S | 247387 | 252250] 271'437 89
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?

‘Total ipments 4o20s| 3885s} 39.923] 435] 27 44074] 36,842] 43,404] 415
Seca sana | 34°55 Ex +05{ 13 30464 | 315321] 38593] 423
Cate bens | 351/287 | 356778 | 361077 | 13 12 350;157 | 3547767 | 383183 8%
Negdefense : a7 | suis | 3nga7] 419] aa] 30] asazz| 29348] 34,043

ppipments oss: 293318 | 28158 | 391290 | +41 39] 34] 329 | eset | 31664

Unfilled orders || 222,676 225,131 228,141 “ll -13 -ll 222,751 125,199 238,060

Excluding aircraft and parts : 26284] 25,582] 26,227] +27] 0-25] +02] 29142] 24,242] 0 27217 | +71
Shipments vevsvecvsesss] 26156] 247783] 25/5501 455] 30] “403 | 20001 | 3509] 37973] toa
New onder, 72839 | T2196 73766) 02} ia] 08 91 0 7291 37

Defense :

d 8,432 7687} 8076 | +97| -48| +02 8,897 7,494 9361 5.0

Shipments - . 5,396 6,398 5630] -15.7] +136] -214 5735, 4,857 6,929 -28

New orders. = 128,611 | 131,647 | 132936] 23] 10} 18] 127406} 1295568 | 148123] 122

(NA) Not available. Revised,

} shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unflled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted

for trading-day or calendar-month variations,
? Based on advance sample.

3 The Capital Goods industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and tu

ines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment,

metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and
distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircratt missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and
tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago ‘Sept. | Sept. 1991-| Year ago Sept. | Sept. 1991-| Year ago Sept. [Sept. 1991-

Sept. 1991 | 1987-1991 | Aug. 1992| Sept. 1991| 1987-1991] Aug. 1992] Sept. 1991] 1987-1991] Aug. 1992

Durable goods 02 06 03 10 TO 07 02 O14 1

Primary metals... 0.00.0. 08 10 03 07 15 07 0.0 0s 02

Industrial machinery and equipment 0.0 08 07 09 15 09 02 03 04
Hlectronic and other

electrical equipment ...... 03 08 os 45 24 Ll 15 05 03

ransportation equipment 03 04 05 08 17 17 01 02 01

Nondefense capital goods . 02 10 08 23 16 14 03 02 04

Defense capital goods .. . 11 09 12 03 ST 6.0 01 03 02

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without

regard to sign, for the months specified.


Billions of Dollars

Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

150 150
New Orders
140 | > 140
130 }- + 130
120 120
110 7 4 110
400 Lt L i ! N 1 1 1 L 1 t i J 400
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1990-Sep. 1992
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45

New Orders

40 Shipments |~) 40

25

i i i 1 1 1 25
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1990-Sep. 1992

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.