UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | written
N —WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mONCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth October 27, 1993
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB93-188
M3-1(93)-9

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
September 1993
(Alll figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $0.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $132.8 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.6 percent increase in August and is the third
increase in the last four months. Year to date, 1993 new orders are 8.3 percent above the same period a year ago.

All major industry groups except transportation equipment and instruments and related products had increases. The
largest increases were in industrial machinery and equipment, up $0.6 billion or 2.5 percent to $24.7 billion, and electronic and
other electrical equipment, up $0.6 billion or 3.0 percent to $20.4 billion. The largest decline was in transportation equipment,
down $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $30.8 billion, as a decline in aircraft and parts more than offset increases in motor vehicles
and parts and shipbuilding and tanks.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in September increased $2.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $137.0 billion, the highest level on
record. This follows a 4.1 percent increase in August and is the third increase in the last four months. All major industry
groups increased. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $0.8 billion or 2.2, percent to $34.9 billion, as an
increase in motor vehicles and parts more than offset a decline in aircraft and parts. This follows a 10.6 percent increase in
August. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.6 billion or 2.4 percent to $24.5 billion, with increases in nearly all
industry categories. Year to date, durable goods shipments are 7.6 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in September decreased $4.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $428.8 billion, the lowest level
since June 1988. This is the seventh consecutive monthly decline and twenty-sixth in the last thirty-one months. Transportation
equipment, down for the seventeenth consecutive month, had the largest decrease, down $4.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $222.0
billion, as a decrease in aircraft and parts more than offset an increase in shipbuilding and tanks. This is the lowest level since
February 1989. Excluding transportation equipment, unfilled orders were down $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent. Electronic and
other electrical equipment had the largest increase, up $0.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $44.5 billion, as an increase in
communications equipment more than offset a decline in electronic components.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $0.2 billion or 3.7 percent to $6.4 billion, as a decline in aircraft and parts more
than offset an increase in shipbuilding and tanks. This follows an 8.8 percent decrease in August. Shipments were up $0.3
billion or 4.0 percent to $7.4 billion, following a 6.3 percent decrease in August. Unfilled orders, down twenty of the last
twenty-one months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $121.9 billion, the lowest level since January 1984.

Nondefense - New orders decreased $0.7 billion or 2.1 percent to $31.4 billion, following a 6.4 percent increase in
August. Shipments were down $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $33.6 billion. This follows a 6.7 percent increase in August.
Unfilled orders declined $2.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $201.0 billion, the sixtcenth decline in the last eighteen months. This
is the lowest level since June 1989. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.0 billion or 3.4 percent, the seventh
increase in the last eight months; shipments increased $0.7 billion or 2.4 percent, also the seventh increase in the last eight
months; and unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.9 percent, the eighth increase in the last ten months.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published November 4, 1993. ‘The advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled
for November 24, 1993. ‘This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-
482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Sept, A july | A july] Sept A § ee
. ug, ja ug; | July] June- e ug, sept.
1993 (993° i998 | Sep? | Auge | July 1983! 1998 1585 |sept93/92
DURABLE GOODS
otal:
Shipments . 137,009 134,520 129,257 +19 +4.1 43 146,942 131,934 134,635 +91
New orders 133794 | 131860 | 128320 | 407 | 426] 28] 1407639 | 128446 | 128699] +93
Unfilled orders < 428759 | 432974 | a3siesa | -10 | 0.6 | 02] 42049 | 4324452 | 456,779 67
Excluding defense :
Shipments. 129,614 | 127407] 121,663 | H17 45 | 138,884] 125,182 | 123953 | +103
New orders ". e443 | 135266 | 130389 | 409] 333] AT] W3a'o4a | 123684 | 123272 | “+9
Unfilled orders’ || 306800 | 310061 | 312202 | “10 Sor | 306172 | 3117012 | 3287127 “61
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. 108,447 | 104,574 437] 36] 119285 | 106234] 1036} 474
New orders 105687 | 1057787 | 103°837 H19| 15] 1137982 | 102;746 | toss100 | +75,
Primary metals
Shipments 432} on327| oa] Ha 43| iso] 11452] 11648
New 7 iv3ea | ios. | togso | za | 22] 27] antsy | 107732] 10397 | 476
Unfilled orders arose | 22134 | 22358 | oa | tr2 | angst | 2285 | 20321
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments" 24453 | 23,881] 23492] + +1 413] 26555] 22,040] 23,082 | 4152
e731 | ai25 | 23733 | 23] tz] 433] 26618 | 22583 | 23031 | F156
Uatied eres 51135 | 30857 | 50,613 403 | 509837 | 30774 | 50/832 08
Electronic and other
‘lectrical equipment
Shipments 1oge7] 19653 | 19228] +12] 22] 4 22,044 | 19,426] 19693 | +119
New orders 20448 | 191830 | 201448 | +30) 29] +25] risa] i916] i9isss | 4135
Unfiled orders’ 44437 | 43936 | 43°29 | 313] 405] 429 08s | 43/940 | 411950 | 45.1
Transportation equipment :
Shipments ve 34876 | 34,124] 30,865 +106] -129| 36.461 | 32.645} 33,061} +103
New orders 30793 | _31'360 | 294203 474) 7163 | 31'842 | 29749 | 208131 | “493
Unfilled orders’ 221955 | 2267038 | 228°802 "12 | 7-07 | 230'531 | 2257150 | 2523369 | -128
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Shipments 40952] 40949} 39317] 00] +42] 41] 45234] 3e4s0] 43.310] +44
New orders rie | 38626 | 37324| -24| 433] 38] 41343 | 36036 | 3014s | 448
Unfilled orders 322881 | 326117 | 328440] “10 | 07] “016 | 320705 | 324%596 | 353/245, 92
Nondefense :
Shipments. . 33,557] 33,836 | 31,723 +67] 50 176 | 31,707 | 34,628 | 474
New orders 31365 | 32032 | _30°093 toa] -itn | 34748 | 30274 | 333018 | 452
Unfilled orde 201/012 | 203'204 | 205,008 "09 | “08 | 200:728 | 203156 | 224593 | -106
Excluding ai
‘Shipments : 28.440 | 27,786 | 27,447 +o5| ugar] 26172 | 28378 | 411s
New orders 2. 59057 | eto | 2701 | 434] 448] 40d | 32022] ese] deisr | +138
Unfilled orders: | 73739 | 7E112 | 71°97 4] 402 | 72445 | 72064 | 71026 | “42.0
Defense :
Shipmenss au3| 1s] +40] -63| oo] 8058] 6,752 | 8.682 12
6331 | 6394] 7331 | 37] 88] +249] 6595] $702] oaa7 | +26
Uanlled ore 22 122313 | 12332 | 08] oa | “03 | 11977 | 2isado | 128%652 61

(NA) Not available." Revised
" Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variatior

* Based on advance sample.
The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal co engines, ‘mining and material handling metalworking special indus
general ry. computer and office teffigeraton, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution industrial
Complete frat, missles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and avigation equipment.
‘Defense capital goods include : ordnance,’ communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Sept. [Sept 1992- | Year ago Sept. | Sept. 1992-|~ Year ago Sept. [Sept. 1992-

Sept. 1992 | 1988-1992 | Aug. 1993 | Sept. 1992 | 1988-1992] Aug. 1993] Sept. 1992] 1988-1992] Aug. 1993

Durable goods . 02 04 03 03 07 03 Ol 04 O1

Primary metals . o1 04 03 08 06 11 03 03 04

Industrial machinery’ and equipment. 02 04 07 02 Ld 09 02 03 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . MW 08 0s Lo 7 08 0.1 05 02

Transportation equipment - 13 06 07 is 19 1 03 03 o4

Nondefense capital goods 07 07 06 40 19 13 04 02 ol

Defense capital 49 18 09 80 10 27 O1 03 O1

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regarc


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

150 150
New Orders
140 Fo Shipments | 7] 140
130 130
120 120
W0fF-------------------------------------- +--+ 4 110
100 il i L i i il L L L L L 1 L 100
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1991 - Sep. 1993
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45

New Orders

40} ------------------------------------- Shipments |+{ 40

a5 n n L L L L L L n n L Ld 95

Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul Sep
Sep. 1991 - Sep. 1993

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.