UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | ox.
N —-WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mORCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 October 29, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97-179
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-09

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS” SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
September 1997
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $1.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $185.7 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.8 percent August increase and is the first decline
since May. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Year to date, new
orders are 6.5 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, down three of the last four months, had the largest decrease, $2.6 billion or 7.7 percent to

$31.5 billion, due to electronic components. This follows a 29.4 percent August increase. Transportation equipment, down two of

the last three months, decreased $1.4 billion or 3.3 percent to $42.0 billion, due to declines in aircraft and parts and motor vehicles

and parts. This follows a 4.0 percent August increase. Primary metals increased $0.7 billion or 4.3 percent to $16.6 billion, following

a 2.0 percent August decrease. This is the third increase in the last four months and the seventh this year. Industrial machinery and

equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.5 percent to $35.1 billion. This follows a 1.4 percent August
lecrease.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in September, up three of the last four months, increased $3.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $185.2 billion,
following a 1.3 percent August decrease. Year to date, shipments are 7.6 percent above the same period a year ago.

Industrial machinery and equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 2.7 percent to $35.0
billion. This follows a 2.6 percent August decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the last five months,
increased $0.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $31.1 billion. This follows a 2.9 percent August increase. Transportation equipment increased
$0.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $43.2 billion, as increases in aircraft and parts and railroad equipment more than offset a decline in motor
vehicles and parts. This follows a 2.7 percent August decrease and is the third increase in the last four months. Primary metals, up
three of the last four months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $15.5 billion, following a 1.1 percent August decline. “Instruments
and related products, up three of the last four months, also increased.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in September increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $501.8 billion. This
follows a 1.1 percent August increase and is the fourth increase in the last five months.

Primary metals, up for the ninth consecutive month, had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $33.4 billion, following a
1.7 percent August increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the last five months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.7
percent to $55.7 billion. This follows a 7.6 percent August increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the third consecutive
month, increased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $73.7 billion, following a 0.8 percent August increase. Transportation equipment
decreased $1.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $249.1 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 0.3 percent August increase and is
the second decrease in the last three months. Instruments and related products declined for the second consecutive month,

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in September, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.4 billion
or 7.9 percent to $5.2 billion, following a 4.9 percent August decrease. Shipments, also down four of the last five months, decreased
0.5 percent to $6.1 billion, following a 3.6 percent August decrease. Unfilled orders, down for the ninth consecutive month, decreased
$0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $106.4 billion, following a 0.4 percent August decrease.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in September, up for the fifth consecutive month, increased $0.7
billion or 1.5 percent to $48.6 billion, following a 1.0 percent August increase. Shipments, up three of the last four months, increased
$1.7 billion or 3.6 percent to $48.6 billion. This follows a 2.4 percent August decrease. Unfilled orders, up three of the last four
months, increased $0.1 billion to $252.6 billion, following a 0.4 percent August increase. Excluding aircraft and gs. new orders
increased $2.4 billion or 6.1 percent to $42.4 billion, the third increase in the last four months; shipments increased $1.3 billion or 3.3
percent to $41.3 billion, the seventh increase in the last eight months; and unfilled orders increased $1.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $100.3
billion, the third consecutive monthly increase.

© REVISED AUGUST DATA Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $330.8
billion (revised from $330.4 billion); new orders, $335.9 billion (revised from $335.5 billion); unfilled orders, $527.3 billion (revised
from $527.2 billion); and total inventories, $449.0 billion (revised from $448.5 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders, Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published November 5, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled for November 26, 1997 (at 10:00
A.M.). This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Sept, us july | Ques | July: | June. Sept Aug. Sept.
197% 1997 i997 | Sept? } Aug’ | “July 197 1997" 1996 |Sept.97/96
DURABLE GOODS
ipments 185,250 | 181,429 | 183,827 21 “13 200,033 | 178,938 | 184,229 48.6
New orders. | | 185733 | 186,808 | 181.679 06} 428} +01 | 195510 | 183:537 | 183/300 +67
Unfilled orders: : : 501:825 | 501,342 | 495,963 On 41 + 496.261 | 500:784 | 478,160 438
Excluding defense :
Shipments 179,168 | 175314 | 177.481 | +22 2] 42 193,487 | 173,056 | 177,563 +
New orders 180.494 | 181/122 | 175,702 03 | +31] +02 | 190:759 | 178991 | 1777743, 473
Unfilled orders 395.440 | 304114 | 3883306 | +03 | +1 “0.5 | 392439 | 395,167 | 372150.
With unfilled orders =
Shipments : 151,623 | 147,984] 149492 | +28 10] +10] 164998 | 145.255 | 149.982 | +10.0
‘New orders 152:106 | 153,363 | 147,344 08 | +41 “LL | 160.475 | 1491854 | 149,053 71
Primary metals :
Shipments . 15,537 + Sue eee 15,331 14,786 47.9
New orders || : 16622 443 20] +36 153459 | 14062 | +173
Unfilled orders 33,369 +7 31/909 | 28.908 | +123
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments : 34,953 26 31741 | 35,574 +8.6
New orders 22... 35,143 +15 la] +611 32:27 347982 +99
Unfilled orders B28 8 72.784 | 71,826 +11
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments ....] 31,083 | 30,218 | 29370] +291 429] 06} 34921] 29377 | 30,164] +158
New orders 2122.22 ‘| 31487 | 34122 | 26365 77| +294] -122 | 32979 | 3391 | 27572] +196
Unfilled orders. < ! : 35°730 | 553326 | 31422 | 40:7] #76] -55 | 54276 | 56218 | 48304 | +122
Transportation equipment :
Shipments : 43,174 | 42.774 | 43,943. | +09 27] +36 | 45,284] 42,082 | 43,625 438
New orders nit 41993 | 43.417 | 41.752 33] +80] -27 | 43016 | 421094 | 46,935 “83
Unfilled orders < - : 249:110 | 250.291 | 249°64 05} +03 209 | 246,938 | 249:206 | 2451838 +08
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES’
Total =
Shipments ...... -. | 34,666 | $2,997 43.1 26| +18] 60.982] 49,749] 55,025 | H10.8
Ni 331874 | 53586 | 53389] 405 | +04] 0.2 | 38632 | 49.279 | 56.810 432
Unfilled orders : 358,992 | 359.784 | 359/195 02] +02 203 | 355272 | 357.622 | 351,030 +12
Nondefense :
Shipments... . . 48,584 | 46.882 | 48.058 | +3.6 24] 42.7 | 34436 | 43,867 | 48,359
New orders 48635 | 47900] 474i2] +15] +Lo} +04} ssi) | 44733 | 51253 +511
Unfilled orders | ° ): 252.607 | 2521556 | 251.538 00 | +404] -03} 251450 | 252/005 | 245/373
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . 41,293 | 39,965 | 40.454} +33 -2| +4] 46640 | 37464] 42.219 | +105
New orders | |! 42446 | 40,021 | 421136 | +611 30 | +66] 47,187 | 37368 | 40/86 +155
Unfilled orders”! i] 100344} 9991 | 99135 | 12 | HOT] +17 | 99,187 8164 4, +49
Defense :
Shipments... 2... 6,082 6.115 6,346 05 36] -47 6,546 5.882 6,666 “18
New orders ||. | 5,239 51686 5977 “19 49) 47 4.751 43546 31557 “145
Unfilled orders! nt 1063385 | 107,228 | 1071657 08 204 | 03 | 103:822 | 1081617 | 105,657 “17

(NAY Not available, * Revise.

"Shipments and new orders ate the totals forthe peti and are adjusted fr tradng-day and calendar-month variations; untitled orders are a of the end of the perind and are noe adjusted for trading-ay or ealendar-month variations

= Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subjeet « survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of conerape
espome and nontepreting, Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot he calculated. Funher detils on survey design, methodology, and data limitations ate contained in our mast recent annua
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports, M3-1(96), "Manvfacturers” Shipments. Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1096,"

“The Capital Goes Industries inclode Nondefense - ondance an accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handiing equipment, metalworking machinery. special induste
machinery, general instal machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electoical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparaus, communication equipment
Complete aiteratt. missiles, and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railewad equipment, and

Defense capital yous include ordnance, communication egoipment, aircraft, missles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, se

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Sept. [Sept. 1996- | Year ago Sept. | Sept. 1996-] _ Year ago ‘Sept. |Sept. 1996-

Sept. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Aug. 1997 | Sept. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Aug. 1997| Sept. 1996] 1992-1996 | Aug. 1997

Durable goods... : 0 02 02 00 03 4 0 0.1 0.1

Primary metals... 1.01 02 03 03 14 14 9 06 06 04

Industrial machinery’ and equipment 03 07 05 07 im 08 02 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 0.5 06 06 7 09 13 12 04 07

Transportation equipment oa 08 04 Us 14 14 03 1 02

Nondefense capital goods . 02 07 06 13 21 07 02 03 02

Defense capital goods 09 16 09 05 37 44 ol ol 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

200 200
New Orders
190 F- - -- 5 er rrr er ee re 4 Shipments |-| 190
180 180
170 170
160 160
150 L L L 1 1 1 L 1. 1 1 L it L 150
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1995 - Sep. 1997
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

B3F------ eer ee rr rr rr rr rr rrr er er eee New Orders | 53

Shipments

48

43

38

33 1 1 1 1 L L il 1 sh it 1 1. L 33
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep

Sep. 1995 - Sep. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.