UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

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2 =A BUREAU OF THE
z= WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 June 25, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97-109
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-05

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
May 1997
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in May decreased $1.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $176.1 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.8 percent April increase and is the second decrease
in the last three months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2 percent, the fourth increase in the last five months. Year
to date, new orders are 5.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, had the largest decline, $1.3 billion or 3.3 percent to $38.4 billion, due
to motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts. This follows a 2.8 percent April increase. Primary metals, down for the first month
since October, decreased $0.4 billion or 2.4 percent to $15.5 billion, following a 2.3 percent April increase. Industrial machinery and
equipment, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $33.5 billion. This follows a 2.9 percent April
increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up following two consecutive monthly declines, increased $2.9 billion or 10.4
percent to $30.8 billion, due to electronic components and communication equipment. This follows a 3.2 percent April decrease.

@ SHIPMENTS of durable goods in May, down for the first month since December, decreased $2.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $176.3
billion, following a 1.3 percent April increase. Year to date, shipments are 7.3 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down for the first month since December, had the largest decrease, $1.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $40.9
billion, mostly due to motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 3.2 percent April increase. Primary metals, down two of the last three
months, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.7 percent to $15.2 billion, following a 1.4 percent April increase. Electronic and other electrical
equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to 28.6 billion, following a 3.4 percent April
decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the fourth consecutive month, increased 0.1 percent to $33.4 billion, following
a 2.0 percent April increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in May decreased $0.2 billion to $496.5 billion. This follows a 0.3
percent April decline and is the third consecutive monthly decline.

Transportation equipment, down for the fourth consecutive month, had the largest decrease, $2.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $250.5
billion, mostly due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 1.0 percent April decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the
largest increase, $2.2 billion of 4.3 percent to $54.0 billion, following decreases of 1.1 percent in April and 1.3 percent in March.
Primary metals, up for the fifth consecutive month, increased $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $30.8 billion, following a 1.5 percent April
increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the fifth consecutive month, increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to gaa billion,
following a 0.7 percent April increase.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in May decreased $0.8 billion or 12.8 percent to $5.5 billion, the fifth
decrease in the last six months. This follows a 27.5 percent April increase. Shipments, down two of the last three months, decreased
$0.1 billion or 2.1 percent to $6.3 billion, following a 2.4 percent April increase. Unfilled orders, down for the fifth consecutive
month, decreased 38 billion or 0.7 percent to $108.4 billion, following a 0.1 percent April decrease.

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in May, up for the first month since February, increased $0.3
billion or 0.7 percent to $44.0 billion, following a 1.7 percent April decrease. Shipments, up for the fourth consecutive month,
increased 0.1 percent to $45.7 billion. This follows a 1.6 percent Apri increase. Unfilled orders, down for the third consecutive
month, decreased $1.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $251.5 billion, following a 0.8 percent April decrease. Excluding aircraft and parts,
new orders increased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $38.8 billion, the first increase since February; shipments increased $0.2 billion
or 0.6 percent to $38.7 billion, the sixth increase in the last seven months; and unfilled orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to
$98.3 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase.

© REVISED April DATA Revised seasonally adjusted April figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $327.4 billion;
new orders, $326.1 billion; unfilled orders, $522.3 billion; and total inventories, $441.4 billion.

NOTE: The data in this press release are consistent with the revised historical series released June 18, 1997. A report which includes these data from 1987 through 1996 is avail
on our internet site, on STAT-USA, on diskettes, or from Census Bureau’s customer services. Please call (301) 457-4100 to order the book, or (301) 457-1227 to order diskettes.
Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published July 2, 1997. ‘The advance report on durable goods for June is scheduled for July 25, 1997. ‘This report is available
on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
May Apr, Mar. | Apr; | Mar. | Feb.- May Br, May
199° 1997" 1997 fay? | Apr’ | — Mar. 199° 1997" 1996 | May97/96
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments... . 176,320 | 178,513 | 176,224 12 +13 | +08 | 177,538 | 177,815 | 170,750 +4.0
New orders’ - ° 176,097 | 177,155 | 173,944 06} +18 28 | 1753345 | 177345 | 171,243 42.4
Unfilled orders . 496,460 | 496,683 | 498/041 0.0 03 “0:5 | 499/397 | 501590 | 477,606 +46
170,034 | 172,095 | 169,956 +13 1.0} 171,439 | 171,795 | 164,872 0
New orders” - - 170,628 | 170,883 | 169,024 0.1 +1] 24 | 171382 | 171,791 | 166,435 +3.0
Unfilled orders 388,065 | 387,471 | 388,683 0.2 -03 20.2 | 389813 | 389,870 | 368,578
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. . 144,986 | 146,195 | 144,652 08 +11 +1.0 | 143,964 | 143,098 | 136,414 45.5
New orders 144,763 | 144837 | 142,372 “0.1 +17 3 14171 | 142,628 | 136,907 +36
Primary metals :
Shipments 15,159 | 15,425 15,206 -04 | 15,673 16,000 15,144
New orders 15,491 15,878 | 15,524 +23 | +04 15,415 16,282 14953 +3]
Unfilled orde 30,751 30,419 | 29,966 +11] 31,406 | 31,664 | 28/931
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments : 33,333 | 32,690] + 32,7 32,251 30,732
orders 33515 | 33842 | 32,890 -10 429 -0.9 | 32;920 | 32,759 | 30,959 +63
Untied ress 4,236 | 73,727 | $0.2 74,33 74.215 | 72,208
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
ipments 28,572 | 28,480 | 29,488 | +03 34] +39] 27,687 | 26,632 | 25,876 +7,
New orders 30798 | 27,895 | 28,805 | +104 32 61 29.658 | 27,053 | 24597 | +206
Unfilled order 34050 | 51824] 52,409 | +43 Al “13 | 54438 | 52\467 | 49,860 $9.2
Transportation | equipment :
: 40,918 | 42,340 | 41,009 34 43.2 00 | 42,585 | 44,282 | 43,026 “10
Rewrorders 38413 | 39,712 | _38,618 33 428 48] 38576 | 41546 | 44,207 12-7
Unfilled orders 250,478 | 252.983 | 255,611 - f -0.9 | 251/459 | 255,468 | 241/586 +411
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments . . $1,965 | $2,074 | 51,195 02 2. 49,801 48,910 | 46,223 477
New orders 491492 | 50,008 | 49,425 AQ] = +12 5.0 | 45,999 | 46636 | _47,310 28
Unfilled orders . 359,864 | 362,337 | 364,403 7 + 20.5 | 361187 | 364,989 | 350,732 +3.0
Nondefense :
Shipments... .. 45,679 | 45,656 | 44,927] +0.1 +16] 434] 43,702 | 42,890 | 40,345 +83
orders" |) |: 44023 | 43,736 | 44505 | +0.7 7 38 | 42/036 | 41082 | _ 42,502 “11
United orders’ © 251469 | 253,125 | 255,045 07 08 20.2 | 251,603 | 253,269 | 241,704 +411
Excluding aircraft and parts
Shipments 38,660 | 38,418 | 38,271 +06] +04] +21 | 37,077] 35,720] 34,591 472
38,794 38,555 39,157 +0.6 -15 “17 37,201 35,969 34,208 48.7
98:272 | 98138 | 98,001 40.1 +01] +09 | 98/406 | 98,282 | 96,382 #21
: 6,286 6,418 6,268 21 4 6,099 6,020 5,878 43.8
5,469 6,272 4,920 | -12.8 147 3,963 5,554 47808 “176
Untied oer | 108;395 | 109,212 | 109,358 07 +12 | 109/584 | 111,720 | 109,028 +05

(NA) Not available, * Revised.
{stmens anne rena a he pid ade ahd eae and calendar-morth variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

? Based on sample. an rer ate abject 10 survey eo acevo. Ope major component of sure eo nasampling er, which ines or of cea
spas and vamepring. Sie ie survey pal ets probay Sale, estima of Sampling err came te ald Furr denis on survey oesign, methodology, and daa lation ae onal’ in ou tren ama
Temanask pobicason, Caren Instat Repos: M3-15), "Manufacturers Shimens, Invenis, and Onder 1982-1995."
Te Capa Gon ini nce Notte: ead sno cgi el nhie,er engines, mining and handling metalworking special industr,
computer and office ‘efrgeration, heating and service industry machi sion and I industrial

ny,
Cerne sieeoe mines: anh space veines aircraft msi, and ace VEN engines and part ships and lank componens, ralload equipment, ahd search and eavigaon equipment.
‘Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago May ] May 1996-| Year ago May | May 1996-| Year ago May | May 1996-
May 1996 | 1992-1996 | Apr. 1997 | May 1996 | 1992-1996 |_ Apr. 1997] May 1996} 1992-1996} Apr. 1997
Durable goods 02 Ol 02 09 oi 5 04 03 0.2 01
Primary metals . Item. . . 05 03 04 0.6 09 1.0 04 04 0.5
Industrial machinery and equipment . 14 06 05 12 04 08 02 ol 03
Electronic: and other
electrical equipment . . ol 03 06 16 09 12 06 03 07
‘Transportation equipment | 08 04 04 27 12 13 02 01 02
Nondefense capital roods . 08 03 0.6 Ls 08 0.7 02 0.1 02
Defense capit goods ae 0.1 0.5 10 5.4 3.4 5.2 0.5 0.2 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard ¢
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

200 200
New Orders
190 F- - ~~ Shipments |-| 190
180 180
170 170
160 160
150 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 il L 150
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
May. 1995 - May. 1997
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
B38 -- er cr rr rr rr rrr er rere New Orders |-{ 53
Shipments
CS 448

gg bu n n nl L L L i n i n n LI 33

May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
May. 1995 - May. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.