UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | =kss.
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 BUR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT.
Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable August 24, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2512 CB94-134
M3-1(94)-07

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
July 1994
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $6.4 billion or 4.2 percent to $144.9 billion,.the largest
decline since December 1991, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. Over half of the decrease was
due to the motor vehicle and parts industry which was heavily affected by the growing practice of shutting down for two weeks
in July. The July decline follows a 1.2 percent increase in June and is the first decrease since February and the second since July
of last year. Year to date, new orders are 13.3 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decline, down $6.0 billion or 15.8 percent to $31.9 billion, primarily due to
motor vehicles and parts, and aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment was down $0.4 billion or 1.5 percent to
$28.4 billion, following a 3.2 percent increase in June. Primary metals declined $0.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $13.0 billion,
following a 2.1 percent decrease in June. Instruments and related products and furniture and fixtures also declined. Electronic
and other electrical equipment increased $0.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $22.4 billion. Fabricated metal products, stone, clay, and
glass products, lumber and wood products, and other durable goods also increased.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in July decreased $4.2 billion or 2.8 percent to $145.8 billion. This follows two consecutive
increases and is the third decrease this year. Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $4.5 billion or 11.7 percent
to $34.1 billion, primarily due to motor vehicles and parts. The largest increase was in electronic and other electrical equipment,
up $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $22.9 billion. This is the ninth consecutive monthly increase. Year to date, durable goods
shipments are 10.7 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in July decreased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $424.9 billion. This follows three
consecutive monthly increases. Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $2.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $206.3
billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts. This is the twenty-sixth decrease in the last twenty-seven months. Industrial machinery
and equipment, up for the thirteenth consecutive month, had the largest increase, up $1.3 billion or 2.2 percent to $61.8 billion,
with increases in nearly all categories. Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $25.5 billion, the eighth consecutive
monthly increase.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $1.2 billion or 16.4 percent to $5.9 billion, primarily caused by aircraft and parts.
This follows a decrease of 2.2 percent in June. Shipments decreased 1.1 percent to $6.8 billion, following an increase of 0.7
percent in June. Unfilled orders decreased $0.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $112.8 billion, following an increase of 0.1 percent.

Nondefense - New orders decreased $2.0 billion or 5.3 percent to $36.1 billion, with the largest decline in aircraft and
parts. This follows a 7.4 percent increase in June and is the fifth decline this year. Shipments decreased $0.9 billion or 2.3
percent to $36.5 billion, following an increase of 3.0 percent in June. Unfilled orders decreased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to
$199.4 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $1.3 billion or 3.8 percent, following a 7.7 percent increase.
Shipments decreased $0.8 billion or 2.4 percent, the first decrease since March, and unfilled orders increased $1.4 billion or 1.7
percent, the fourteenth consecutive monthly increase.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 31, 1994. The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled
for September 28, 1994. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-
482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from
Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-763-2074)
can provide content information and general guidance.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
tem Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Jul F May | 4 M rn Jul F suy | Snane®
r une ay | June; Apr , une ,
1994 i994 1994 | July? | June’ ay 1994 i998 1993 | suly94/93
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
150,040 148,510 28 +10 +h1 126,442 165,108 112,784 +121
iroae | ieaio | a3] 12 | tra] 136281] 163604 | 112}603 | 41211
425,788 424,583 0.2 +03 40.2 425,826 425,987 435,940 23
143,178 141,694 29 +12 120,318 157,718 106,056 +13.4
142338 | 142530] 36] 14] 408] 11's | 136347 | 106639 | +140
312,035 310,991 0.0 +02 313,548 312,361 313,510 0.0
With unfilled orders
Shipments . . 117,594 119,128 117,785 13 +11 412 103,762 131,273 92,819 +118
New orders Heeoo | 120334 | t18es7 | 31] tra] 416] tosteot | 129789 | zeae | F118
Primary metals :
Shipments 848 | 12,735] i267 | +09 431] gis} 13508] 19261 | 415.1
New orders... 12,969 13,070 13,350 08 +6.1 11,910 13,541 10,214 +16.6
Unfilled orders’ | 25,482 25,361 25,026 +0.5 42.8 26,139 6,044, 22,905 +141
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments ...... 27,106 27,130 26,947 0.1 +0.7 +21 23,457 31,400 20,412 414.9
New orders | | soit] Bass | 3RaS | 39905] TS | 32] To] 2439] 32'S65 | 0ls45 | +209
Untied orders’ aia) | 801033 | 58670] 423] 330] sr] ot eoro7 | 50231 | +224
Electronic and other
cietrical equipment :
Shipments 22,936 22,677 22,355 +11 +14 +10 20,534 24,422 17,219 +193
22,396 22,209 22,175 +0.8 S.1 20,314 23,186 18,617 49.1
and order 46168 | 46708 | 47,176 “12 4 | 4693 | 4641 43'850 +5
Transportation equipment :
jipments . . 34, 38,616 37,666 WT 05 25,705 42,850 23,603 +8.9
New orders 31,914 37,901 37,080 15.8 +22 +32 22,972 21,460 +7.0
Unfilled orders | >| 2 208's40 | 209255 | -11 | "03 | 206076 | 208'809 ods | 9.6
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total :
Shipments . 43,239 44,183 43,041 21 42. 0. 37,985 50,733 34,551 49.9
New orders 41,976 45,146 42.678 -70 +58 +14 36,330 764 32,061 +133
Unfilled orders 312,221 313,484 312; 522 04 -( 311,341 312,996 327, "019. 48
Nondefense :
Shipments wae 36,453 37,321 36,225 2. +1.0 31,861 43,343 27,823 +145
orders 36,103 38,122 5,498 53 +74 09 31,554 43,487 26,087 421.0
Dariled orders . 199/381 199,731 198,930 0. 0.4 199, 199,370 204,: 3589. 2.
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments - 31826 | 32,607 | 31,883 3} +19] 27,869 , 24,162
New orders 3538 | 3780) | 320s} «38 | 277] as] 29324 | 38da7 | 24210
Untitled orde 85/052 | 83640 | 81680 4] 403 "734 N38
ostiome spe] gan) sae] ar] +92] 29] gue] 2390] gaa
ipments ...... ¥ 2. F - .' a2 Ys
New orders... $873 vis0 | -iea | 22 | +143 776 | 7377 | $974
Unfilled orders’. | wee | SHE] GR] UBS] BT] HS] kk] 113626 | 1223850

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

"Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe petiod and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

2 pased on advance sample. Estimates of manufactures’ shipments and orders are subject to survey varahiiy and revision. Since the survey pane is mo a probabitiy sample, estimates of sampling variably, anos be alae
Fa ea palology and dats nual we conned iO men reset tal benchmark pbleain, Cures nda Reps’ Mi 12), “Mantas” Shipnens, Inventors, an Order Pen 90
The Capital Goods Inds ‘ncde Nondefese : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and tubie, ieral combuton ngs, cosrction mining and mati handing equpment, metalwuing vig mir, sil nse
ry general industrial ey, computer and office heating an serves instr machine), and distribution ial apparatus,
‘complete aiteraft, missles, and space vehicles, aieraft missles, and space veicle engines and pars, ships and ‘and search and navigation
Defense capital goods joclude = ordnance, se es is ta Seopne, snc al avin eee

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments ‘New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Tuly | July 1993-| Year ago Tuly | July 1993-] Year ago Tuly | July 1993-

July 1993 | 1989-1993 | June 1994 | July 1993 1989-1993 | June 1994] July 1993] 1989-1993 | June 1994

Durable goods . 0.1 ° 3 03 1.0 0.7 04 02 02 O1

Primary metals . Ol 08 0.6 14 12 12 06 05 06

Industrial machinery and equipment . 12 09 0.7 09 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.1 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment ..... . 0.6 09 0.6 41 15 14 1.0 04 04

Transportation equipment .. . 01 04 18 16 1.0 03 03 01

Nondefense cay Pe al goods: 04 09 0.6 0.2 14 07 0.0 02 0.1

Defense capit 04 09 0.8 117 43 6.1 0.7 03 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

165 165
New Orders
a | Shipments |-] 155
145 145
135 135
125 125
115 1 L 1 1 1 L i 1 1 a 1 L L 115
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May = Jul
Jul. 1992 - Jul. 1994
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45

New Orders

40F----- rr rrr rr rr rr rr rrr rrr rr eee Shipments |-{ 40

25 bo L i i n i n r L n L L Lj 25

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul
Jul. 1992 - Jul. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.