UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | #stsns.

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BI .U OF THE
»~ WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 UR EENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 August 26, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97-142
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-07

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
july
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $1.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $180.5 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.9 percent June increase and is the second decrease
in the last three months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent, the third increase in the last four months. Year
to date, new orders are 5.7 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, down four of the last five months, had the largest decrease, $4.1 billion or 13.6 percent to
$26.0 billion, due to electronic components and communication equipment. This follows a 2.6 percent June decrease. Transportation
equipment, down two of the last three months, decreased $1.5 billion or 3.5 percent to $41.4 billion; declines, led by aircraft and parts,
more than offset an increase in motor vehicles and parts. This follows an 8.8 percent June increase. Industrial machinery and
equipment increased $2.0 billion or 5.9 percent to $35.1 billion. This follows a 1.1 percent June increase. Primary metals, up eight
of the last nine months, increased $0.5 billion or 3.5 percent to $16.2 billion, following a 0.8 percent June increase. Instruments and
related products, up three of the last four months, also increased.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in July, up six of the last seven months, increased $3.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $183.6 billion,
following a 2.6 percent June increase. Year to date, shipments are 7.5 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up six of the last seven months, had the largest increase, $1.8 billion or 4.1 percent to $44.2 billion, due
to motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment, up five of the last six months, increased $0.5
billion or 1.4 percent to $34.7 billion, following a 3.6 percent June increase. Primary metals, up three of the last four months,
increased $0.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $15.6 billion, following a 1.7 percent June increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment,
down following two consecutive increases, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.2 percent to $29.2 billion. This follows a 2.8 percent June
increase.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in July decreased $3.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $495.2 billion. This
follows a 0.2 percent June increase and is the first decline since April.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $3.2 billion or 5.9 percent to $51.3 billion, following increases of
1.0 percent and 4.1 percent in June and May respectively. Transportation equipment decreased $2.8 ion or 1.1 percent to $249.1
billion, mostly due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 0.2 percent June increase and is the fifth decrease in the last six months.
Primary metals, up for the seventh consecutive month, increased $0.6 billion or 2.0 percent to $31.6 billion, following a 0.7 percent
June increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month since April, increased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $73.2
billion, following a 1.5 percent June decrease. Instruments and related products, up eight of the last nine months, also increased.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in July decreased $0.4 billion or 6.6 percent to $5.9 billion, the second
decrease in the last three months. This follows a 13.5 Bercent June increase. Shipments, also down two of the last three months,
decreased $0.3 billion or 3.9 percent to $6.4 billion, following a 5.5 percent June increase. Unfilled orders, down for the seventh
consecutive month, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $107.5 billion, following a 0.4 percent June decrease.

e CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in July, down for the first month since April, decreased $0.3
billion or 0.6 percent to $46.9 billion, following a 6.7 percent June increase. Shipments, up five of the last six months, increased $1.1
billion or 2.3 percent to $47.8 billion. This follows a 2.4 percent June increase. Unfilled orders, down four of the last five months,
decreased $0.9 billion or 0.3 percent to $251.4 billion, following a 0.2 percent June increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
increased $2.1 billion or 5.3 percent to $41.6 billion, the second consecutive monthly increase; shipments increased $0.2 billion or 0.5
rcent to $40.1 billion, the sixth consecutive monthly increase; and unfilled orders increased $1.4 billion or 1.5 percent to $98.9
illion, the first increase since April.

© REVISED JUNE DATA Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $327.7 billion
(revised from $326.4 billion); new orders, $329.0 billion (revised from $327.9 billion); unfilled orders, $524.1 billion (unrevised); and
total inventories, $444.9 billion (revised from $444.8 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published September 4, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled for September 25, 1997. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
July June May | June; | May- | Apr Jub June July
1997? 1997" 199 July? | Junie’ } May 199 197° 1996 | July97/96
DURABLE GOODS
Total
Shipments 193,598 | 180,511 | 175,900] +17] +26 155,7 197,505 | 141,288 | +!
New orders 180503 | 181'572 | 176,443 06 | +29 1543311 | 194578 | 147,034 +49
Unfilled orders 495,180 | 498,275 | 497,214 “06 | +02 49556: 497115 | 482,487
Excluding defense :
Shipments... . - 177,196 | 173,849 | 169,584] +19 150,176 | 190,263 | 136,179 | +103
New orders): 174650 | 175;305 | 170,920 04 | +26 150/512 | 188/165 | 143,873 +46
Unfilled orders 387,707 | 390/253 | 388,797 “0.7 388,712 | 388/376 | 373,695 +4.0
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 149240 | 147,869 | 144,587] +09] 423] -11 | 129374] 163,143] 117,290] +103
New orders 146145 | 148930 | 145;130 | -19 | 426] +02 | 127,915 | 160,216 ] 123,036 +4.0
Primary metals :
Shiprhents . 15,577 | 15.418 | 15,166 417] ol 14131 | 16,227 | 13,154 zy
New orders"! | 16186 | 15,641 15516 | +35] +08] -24] 14743 | 15698 | 13-451 496
Unfilled orders ° 31627 | 31,018 | 30,795 2 40.7} +11] 312636 | 31,024 | 29,386 7
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments vieeeceseesess| 34713 | 34,232 1 33,053 43.6] -08 | 29,282 | 39,723 | 26,289 | +114
New orders 351077 | 33:1 32753] +59] +11 33] 29943] 37513 | 27,177 | +102
Unfilled orders 73,213 | 72/84! 73/965 15] -04 | 72/5 713867 | 72,128 +06
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments... . 29,168 | 29,512 | 28,716 12| +428] +08) 25229} 32,353] 23,166 $8.9
New orders 25/960 | 30/056 } 30,851 | -13.6 26| +106 | 237265 | 31,786 | 26,156 “Ll
Unfilled orders 51279 | 34487 | 53,983, 5 410] “+41 | 513666 | 53,630 | 51,195 +09
‘Transportation equipment :
Shipments. 44163 | 42.413 | 41,086] +41] 433] 30} 32,002] 45,576 | 27,765 | +153
New orders 42899 | 39/423 35 | +881 0:7] _28'506 | _45:570 | 28'973 -1%6
Unfilled order 251,835 | 251349 V1] +02| -0.6 | 2483818 | 252,314 | 245,549 +13
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments . . 54202 | 53,367] 51917] +16] 428] -03 | 46501} 61,782 | 40,154 | +15.8
New orders’ ° 52780 | 53,454] 49,734 13] +75] 06 3092 | 60/512 | 41,786 +55
Unfilled orders: 358/828 | 360,250 | 360,163 “04 00] 0.6 | 357/884 | 360,293 | 353,400
Nondefense :
Shipments 47,800 | 46,705 | 45,601 4] 01] 40,907] 54,540] 35,045] +167
New orders 46927 | 47,187 | 44.211 +67] +11 | 40,293 | 54099 | 38625 +43,
Unfilled orders’: 251355 | 252,228 | 251,746 02] 05 | 250/940 | 251554 | 244,608 426
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments ......... . 39,932 | 38,533 +3. 403} 34206 | 46,733 | 30,692 | +114
New orders PEEIE | aise3 | 394ga | 383325] +53] +30] 06 | 35911 | 45,366 | 32.245 | +114
Unfilled orders 2.2225. 22] 98/943 | 97,497] 9741 | +15 05]  -0.2 | 98528 | 96,823 | 96,642 +20
Defense :
Shipments 6,402 6,662 6316 39| +55] 16 5,594 5,109 49.5
New orders 5.853, 6,267 53523 66 | +135] -119 3:799 6413 3161 | +202
Unfilled orders. 107:473 | 108,022 | 108/417 05 04} ~-07 | 106,944 | 101 108,792 “17

(NA) Nat available. * Revised

" Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for rading-Jay and calendar-month variations; unfiled orders are a8 ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variatio

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverag
response and nonrepoting. Since the survey pane! is nota p yy sample, cof sampling error cannot be Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent ann
henchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-I(96), "Manufacturers" Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996,"

The Capital Goods Industries inchade Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special indus
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, eletrcal ion and distribution . industrial apparatus, ‘equipme
Complete aiteraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aiteraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital gons include ordnance, communication equipment, aicraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Tuly ] July 1996-| Year ago Tuly | July 1996-| Year ago Tuly | July 1996-

July 1996 | 1992-1996 | June 1997 | July 1996 | 1992-1996 | June 1997| July 1996] 1992-1996] June 1997

Durable goods 02 03 02 02 0.5 04 0.0 Ol 01
Primary metals . . 07 03 03 05 05 09 05 03 04
Industrial machinery an 06 09 05 09 09 09 ol ol 03
Electronic and other ;
electrical equipment . . . 07 07 06 02 15 1 0.5 03 07
‘Transportation equipment 06 10 04 16 1s 14 Ol 02 02
Nondefense capital goods . 04 im 06 0.0 07 06 01 02 02
Defense capital goods . . 19 10 Lo 44 6.0 47 03 04 02

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regan’
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

200 200
New Orders

190 P- - Shipments /-| 190

180 180

170

160

170

160

150 bat L L n i L 1 n n n n n Lt 150

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
Jul. 1995 - Jul. 1997

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

53

48

43

38

33

b---- 5 eee ee eee ee rr ee ee ee rr er rere New Orders |-] 53
Shipments

L 1 L 1 a L i i L L L 1 1 33
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul

Jul. 1995 - Jul. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.