S02 Redesignation Request Emissions Summary and Projections 

Campbell, KY- Clermont, OH 

Introduction 

In January 2015, the Kentucky Division for Air Quality collaborated with the Ohio 

Environmental Protection Agency (Ohio EPA) to prepare a redesignation request for the sulfur 

dioxide (S02) National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). This redesignation request 

relates to the interstate area of portions of Campbell County in Kentucky and Clennont County 

in Ohio. For Campbell County, the portion incudes five Census Tracts: 519.01, 519.03, 529.00, 

531.00, and 533.01. And for Clermont County, the portion is Pierce Township. 

Selection of Years 

In developing this S02 redesignation request, the initial step was to select the years from base 

year to maintenance year. After discussions between representatives from the Kentucky 

Division for Air Quality and the Ohio EPA, the appropriate years were selected. For the base 

year, 2011 was selected to develop a comprehensive S02 emissions inventory for which 

projected emissions could be estimated for several future years. 

For the attainment year, 2014 was selected since it corresponds to one of the years in the design 

value showing attainment. These design value years are 2012, 2013, and 2014. The 2014 

attainment year also corresponds to the year where the permanent and enforceable improvement 

in air quality leading to attaimnent occurred due to Clermont County's Walter C. Beckjord 

facility permanently ceasing operations. 

Below is a summary of the years chosen for each state. 

YEARS FOR S02 REDESIGN A TION REQUEST- KENTUCKY Al\'D OHIO 

Year Year Type Kentucky Ohio 

2011 Base Year 

2014 Attainment Year " " 

2017 Interim Maintenance Year " " 

2020 Interim Maintenance Year " 

2022 ' Interim Maintenance Year " " 2027 Maintenance Year " " 

Therefore, the years for both states used in this redesignation request are: 

2011, 2014,2017, 2020,2022, and 2027 

The 2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) was used for area and non-highway mobile source 

emissions. Along with Census and projected Census data, additional years of2010 Census, 2020 

Kentucky Division for Air Quality- january 2015 Page 1 

i 

I 

i 
Census, and 2030 Census years are also used as part of the population and growth rate 

calculations. 

Below are detailed explanations for projections on population growth factors and future year S02 

emissions from point, area, highway mobile, and non-highway mobile sources. The Kentucky 

Division for Air Quality has provided all emission and projection data for both counties in an 

Excel spreadsheet. Unless otherwise noted, the following narrative applies to both Campbell 

County in Kentucky and Clermont County in Ohio. 

Population Growth 

There are a total of five growth rates used for projecting Future Year S02 emissions. These 

growth rates can be divided into three groups based on the specific calculation type. 

1) There is only one growth rate in the first group: the 2011-2014 growth rate. This growth 

rate, from the base year to the attainment year, was calculated by simply dividing the 

2014 population by the 2011 population. 

2) There are two growth rates in the second group: the 2014-2017 growth rate and the 

2014-2020 growth rate. Projected from the 2014 attainment year, or Present Year, these 

growth rates were projected out towards and including the Future Year. For this growth 

rate group, the Future Year was 2020 as it would result in more-accurate growth rates. 

The following formula was used in Excel to calculate these growth rates. 

Growth Factor= EXP(RATE(Y,-PY,FY))"n 

Where Y = Total Years between Present and Future Years 

PY =Present Year, in this case, 2014 

FY = Future Year, in this case, 2020 

n =Number of Years Out From Present Year 

Using an example for a growth rate out to the year 2017, the following formula is used. 

2014-2017 Growth Factor= EXP(RATE(6,-2014,2020))"3 

where 6 represents the total years between 2014 (Present Year) and 2020 (Future Year). 

From 2014, projecting 3 years (n) out would represent 2017. A similar formula is also 

applied to calculate the growth rate for 2020. 

3) The final two growth rates are in the third group: the 2014-2022 growth rate and the 

2014-2027 growth rate. Again, projected from the 2014 attainment year, or Present Year, 

these growth rates were projected out towards and including the Future Year. For this 

growth rate group, the Future Year was 2030 as it would result in more-accurate growth 

rates. The 2030 year was also used since 2022 and 2027 falls outside of the range using 

the Future Year 2020 indicated in the second growth rate group. The following formula 

was used in Excel to calculate these growth rates. 

Kentucky Division for Air Quality- january 2015 Page 2 
Growth Factor= EXP(RATE(Y,-PY,FY))"n 

Where Y = Total Years between Present and Future Years 

PY = Present Year, in this case, 2014 

FY = Future Year, in this case, 2030 

n =Number of Years Out From Present Year 

Using an example for a growth rate out to the year 2022, the following formula is used. 

2014-2022 Growth Factor= EXP(RATE(16,-2014,2030))"8 

where 16 represents the total years between 2014 (Present Year) and 2030 (Future Year). 

From 2014, projecting 8 years (n) out would represent 2022. A similar formula is also 

applied to calculate the growth rate for 2027. 

Point Source Emissions 

For Campbell County, Kentucky, point source facilities were first identified within the five 

Census Tracts. There were a total of 11 facilities located within these Census Tract boundaries. 

After the facility locations were found, the 2011 base year emissions from those point sources 

were obtained from the Kentucky Emissions Inventory database. Finally, point source emissions 

were projected for the years 2014 attainment year, 2017,2020,2022, and 2027. Growth rates for 

these projected years were used as described in the section titled, "Population Growth." 

For Pierce Township in Clermont County, Ohio, the only point source facility is Walter C. 

Beckjord Station. However, in a letter from Duke Energy Ohio, Inc. to the Southwest Ohio Air 

Quality Agency that is .dated October 14, 2014, the six coal-fired emissions units (BOO!, B002, 

B003, B004, BOOS, and B006) "are permanently shut down and removed from service." The 

letter continues to indicate "that authorization to operate the affected units has ceased as of 

October 1, 2014." According to Ms. Jennifer Van Vlerah (Ohio EPA), the facility actually 

ceased operation on September 1, 2014. Therefore, this facility only operated for the first eight 

months of2014. 

Area Source Emissions 

The 2011 NEI, the most-recent NEI, was used to obtain 2011 base year area source emissions for 

both Campbell County, Kentucky and Clermont County, Ohio. These emissions represent the 

entire counties. 

The appropriate population percentages were applied to each county (29.0% for Campbell 

County, 7.3% for Clermont County). By applying these percentages to the county emissions for 

area sources, the five Census Tracts and Pierce Township are now represented. 

With the 2011 base year area source emissions now established for the county portions, those 

emissions were multiplied by the 2011-2014 growth rate to obtain the 2014 emissions. The 2014 

Kentucky Division for Air Quality- january 2015 Page 3 
attainment year emissions were then projected for 2017, 2020, 2022, and 2027 by using the 

growth rates explained in the section titled, "Population Growth." 

Highway Mobile Source Emissions 

The Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments, or OKI, provided the highway 

mobile source emissions for 2011 base year, 2014 attainment year, 2017, 2020, 2022, and 2027. 

The emissions for the specific county portions were not calculated based on population 

percentages. Rather, the emissions were more accurately reflected by dividing the vehicle miles 

traveled in the portion by the vehicle miles traveled in the entire county. 

Non-Highway Mobile Source Emissions 

Just like area source emissions, the 2011 NEI was used to obtain 2011 base year non-highway 

mobile source emissions for both Campbell County, Kentucky and Clermont County, Ohio. 

These emissions represent the entire counties. 

The appropriate population percentages were applied to each county (29.0% for Campbell 

County, 7.3% for Clem1ont County). By applying these percentages to the county emissions for 

non-highway mobile source sources, the five Census Tracts and Pierce Township are now 

represented. 

With the 2011 base year non-highway mobile source emissions now established for the county 

portions, those emissions were multiplied by the 2011-2014 growth rate to obtain the 2014 

emissions. The 2014 attainment year emissions were then projected for 2017, 2020, 2022, and 

2027 by using the growth rates explained in the section titled, "Population Growth." 

Summary of Emissions 

As indicated in the Excel worksheet titled, "Total Emissions Summary," there is a very 

significant reduction in S02 emissions for the subject portions in Campbell County, Kentucky 

and Clermont County, Ohio. 

Kentucky Division for Air Quality- january 2015 Page4 
REDESIGNATION REQUEST: POPULATION AND GROWTH DATA 

County: 

Census Tract 

519.01 

--

-- ---· 

519.03 f 529.00 ----- 531.00 533.01 

Tracts" 

Popui<J_tionProjections 2015:205(J,_Census Data for 2Q10, 2020._<ll1d DataCente_r,__ PopulationEstimatl!s for 201l_a_nd 2012, "l"_otal 

http://ksdclouisville.edu/fndex.pho/keiJtUcky-demographic-data/estimates/oopulation-and-housinq-units 

) 2010 Census Tractand Bloc_kData...:=_Campbell County, Kentucky Sta_tl! Data Center, _ 

http://ksdc.louisville.edu/index.pho/kentuckv_:demographic-data/decennial-census 

_!::mail frorrr_Jennifer VanVIerah,_ghio EPA, Clermo_rrt County, Ohio_ 

December 8, 2014. 

* Indicates that countv-wide growth factors were a due to limited access to <nPrifir 

Joe Fargacs- Kentucky Division for Air Quality 

data. 
POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS 

j, _- · ·-•-- ; / .. .. ;D,/,· j ---=-- ..... .>-·· · ..•. : .. 

1

-.- -··. 

-----

--------------

Griffin Industries Inc 

--

--

.•. .,._..KY _____ _ 

1 .

. _._·-·o· ..... Partners II LP ·Alexandria 

-------- ---- -----

IIPdmn __ 

0.00 0.00 0.65 

The area for this 502 redesignation request includes five Census Tracts in Campbell County, KY (519.01, 519.03, 529.00, 5

Pierce Township in Clermont County, OH. 

2011 baseyear point source emissions were determined based on location within these specific localized areas in each cou

2011 point source emissions were obtained through the Kentucky Emissions Inventory database. Growth rates in the "P

shaded in gray, were then applied to the Future Year emissions for 2014 (attainment year), 2017, 2020, 2022, and 2027. 

facility in Clermont County permanently closed during 2014. 

Joe Forgoes - Kentucky Division for Air Quality 
AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS 

S02 ME.A: .. (Portio

-·---- ---- --· --------- -·· 

ENTIRE ! PORTION PORTION 

----------· 

Base Year Base Year Attainment 

PORTION 

Projected 

2017 

PORTION 

2020 

COUNTY 

Campbell, KY 

----

---- --------

--

Clermont, OH 

AREAfOtAl 

:::::zou 

tpy 

20.77 

103.06 

123Jti 

__f'_opulatior:_ 

% 

29.0% 

7.3% 

2011 

tpy 

6.03 

--- ----r-

-

-

2014 

tpy 

6.04 

-

----

7.63 

' tpy 

6.06 

j- -Itpy 6.08 7.88 13.!:15 _j 

+ 

----t--

-·---- ------ ---

- -1-

- -=1 :::: 

_ 

-··- -+ - 

-----

-j- -- 1' -----·-- --

---

_ _l 

_ !_ 

+ -,-

iI ·- j------ ---- -i --··-

-,-

! 

1

The area for this 502 redesignation request includes five Census Tracts in Campbell County, KY (519.01, 519.03, 529.00, 53

and Pierce Township in Clermont County, OH. 

2011 baseyear area source emissions were obtained from the National Emissions Inventory (U.S. EPA). Growth rates in th

worksheet, shaded in gray, were then applied to project the Future Year 502 emissions for 2014 (attainment year), 2017, 202

County portions were applied by multiplying the 2011 emissions for the entire county by the Population%. Emissions from 

then be projected out to Future Years. 

Data Source: National Emissions Inventory (2011}, U.S. EPA 

Joe Forgoes- Kentucky Division for Air Quality 
HIGHWAY MOBilE SOURCE EMISSIONS 

' -- I / J · ... AR.E.A: . · ·- 7T 

. 

- _j_. PORTION PORTION 

--

Base Year Attainment 

r PORTION PORTION 

j ___ 

PORT

Proje

2011 2014 202

COUNTY 

-

tpy tpy tpy I tpy 

._ ______ _ 

tp

Campbell, KY ___ 1.547 

,. ____ _ ··-- 1.506 

0.331 

- 1-- 1.3

0.3

--- -· 

Clermont, OH 0.340 

t!WV MO.BILI! 1.881 I · 1.8!11 1.7!J7 I I uoz 1.6

1-

i 

··-r=-. 

-±-

--, 

+ 

----

--------

I -

-'----

--- -----

i 

------ -+--____:-__ -----

------··--·· 

_l__ 

----

----

------- 

----------- ---

------

-------------

The area for this 502 redesignation request includes five Census Tracts in Campbell County, KY (519.01, 519.03, 529.00, 

and Pierce Township in Clermont County, OH. 

Andy Reser from the Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Regional Council of Governments, or OKI, provided the highway mobile so

2011 baseyear, 2014 (attainment year), 2017, 2020, 2022, and 2027. The emissions for the specific portions of each 

calculated based on population percentages. Instead, the emissions were more accurately reflected by dividing the veh

the portion by the vehicle miles traveled in the entire county. 

---·---·--

----

-------------

__ ,, __ 

Data Source: Ohio-Kentucky--Indiana {OK/) Regional Council of Governments l--- 1 

Joe Forgoes -- Kentucky Division for Air Quality 
NON-HIGHWAY MOBilE SOURCE EMISSIONS 

I 

f .Jtii .... J I . ...•. -•· 

I 

COUNTY 

---

' . 

ENTIRE , 

Base-Year ·

1

,--

2011 Population -' •.. " 

__ _ 

tpy % 

PORTION 

Base Year 

2011 

PORTION 

Attainment 

2014 

tpy I tpy ---j 

·--

PORTION 

2017 

PORTION 

Projected -t 

2020 

1 

tpy I tpy 

Campbell, KY_ 0.68 29.0% 

-------

0.20 + ___ 0.20 __ Clermont, OH I 2.40 

NON•HWVtotAll 3.08 

+-

r11_ ----

7.3% 0.17 0.18 

r· M1 ., • o.31 • 

__ 

! -1--

-=j . -j-----

-1 

-l 

----;------

--t 

! 

------ 1-

,_______ ----------+---

-----

j__ 

I 

(),38 /; >J --- . 0.38 

--·- l

1-

The area for this S02 redesignation request includes five Census Tracts in Campbell County, KY (519.01, 519.03, 529.00, 53

Pierce Township in Clermont County, OH. 

-···-·--

2011 baseyear non-highway source emissions were obtained from the National Emissions Inventory (U.S. EPA). Growth ra

worksheet, shaded in gray, were then applied to project the Future Year S02 emissions for 2014 (attainment year), 2017,

County portions were applied by multiplying the 2011 emissions for the entire county by the Population %. Emissions from 

be projected out to Future Years. 

-

Data Source: National Emissions Inventory (2011), U.S. EPA 

Joe Forgoes - Kentucky Division for Air Quality 
TOTAL EMISSIONS SUMMARY 

PORTION PORTION PORTION _-'_0•io0N . . POR!I()

-··· ··-·· 

Base Year Attainment Projected Projected Projecte

-· 

-------- -----

___ _, _____ 

--- - ------- -

2011 2014 2017 2020 2022 

------ ··---- ------ - ·------ ---- ------ -·--- ----·-·· ·-····· 

tpy 

The area for this S02 redesignation request includes five Census Tracts in Campbell County, KY (519.01, 519.03, 529.0

533.01) and Pierce Township in Clermont County, OH. 

2011 baseyear emissions were obtained from a variety of sources. Point source emissions were obtained from sta

inventory databases. 2011 baseyear area and non-highway mobile source emissions were obtained from the Natio

Inventory (U.S. EPA). All highway mobile source emissions were obtained from the Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Region

Governments, or OKI, in Cincinnati, Ohio. Growth rates in the "Pop Growth" worksheet, shaded in gray, were then ap

the Future Year S02 emissions for 2014 (attainment year), 2017,2020,2022, and 2027. Where applicable (area and 

county portions were applied by multiplying the 2011 baseyear emissions for the entire county by the Population%. Em

portions were then be projected out to Future Years. 

Joe Forgoes- Kentucky Division for Air Quality