UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | ooittiztston
NI EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 BURNS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable November 23, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2512 CB94-193
M3-1(94)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GooDs MAN UEACTURERS SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
tober 1994
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $2.4 billion or 1.5 percent to $152.8 billion, following
a.0.3 percent increase in September, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This is the first decline
since July and the third this year. Year to date, new orders are 13.9 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $3.6 billion or 9.4 Percent to $35.2 billion, with declines in nearly all
industries. This follows increases in September of 0.1 percent and August of 20.1 percent, and is the fifth decrease this year.
Furniture and fixtures also declined. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $30.0 billion,
followi 0.5 percent decrease in September. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to
$23.5 n, the third consecutive increase and the seventh this year; a large decline in communication equipment was more than
offset by increases in the other industries. Instruments and related products also increased.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in October decreased $1.8 billion or 1.2 percent to $152.5 billion, following a 0.8 percent
decline in September. This is the fifth decline this year. Transportation equipment had the largest decline, $2.2 billion or 5.7
percent to $37.2 billion. This follows a 2.9 percent decrease in September and is the sixth decline this year. The largest increase
was in industrial machinery and equipment, $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $28.7 billion. This is the sixth consecutive increase.
Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $23.5 billion, the twelfth consecutive increase.
Year to date, durable goods shipments are 11.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in October increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $424.8 billion. This follows an
increase in September of 0.2 percent and is the sixth increase this year. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the sixteenth
consecutive month, increased $1.3 billion or 2.0 percent to $65.7 billion; increases were widespread. Primary metals increased
$0.9 billion or 3.4 percent to $27.8 billion, the eleventh consecutive monthly increase. Instruments and related products also
increased. Transportation equipment, down twenty-nine of the last thirty months, had the largest decrease, $2.0 billion or 1.0
percent to $201.8 billion, due to aircraft and parts.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $1.2 billion or 16.9 percent to $5.7 billion, primarily due to shipbuilding and tanks.
This follows an increase of 11.6 percent in September. Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $6.8 billion, following
a decrease of 6.2 percent in September. Unfilled orders decreased $1.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $110.6 billion, following an
increase of 0.2 percent in September.

Nondefense - New orders decreased $1.1 billion or 2.9 percent to $37.8 billion, with the largest decrease in communication
equipment. This follows a 3.6 percent increase in September and is the sixth decline this year. Shipments decreased $0.3 billion
or 0.9 percent to $38.1 billion, following an increase of 1.5 percent in September. This is the fourth decline this year. Unfilled
orders decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $199.1 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.2 billion or
0.4 percent, following a 3.2 percent increase in September; shipments increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent, following a 1.3 percent
increase; unfilled orders increased $1.5 billion or 1.7 percent, the seventeenth consecutive monthly increase.

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable foods and inventory data will be published December 2, 1994. The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled
for December 23, 1994. is report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1)
(202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained
from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census
(301-763-2074) can provide content information and general guidance.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted ‘Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
ange
Oct Sept. Aug. Sept; Aug.- July- Oct, Sept. Oct,
1598 1984 1984 | “Oot? | ‘Sepi?| ‘Aug. 1994 1984 1993 | oct.94/93
DURABLE GOODS
"41 ipments 152,498 26 | 155,619 08 | +62 | 157,845 | 164,272 | 144,241 49.4
New orders’ | 152'816 | 155,195 | 154.675 15] +03} +65] 157,809 | 162,556 | 142,205 | +109
Unfilled orders 424/806 88 | 423,619 1] +02] 02 | 421-251 | 421,287 | 423;752 -0.6
Excluding defens
Ship 145,729 | 147,653 | 148,506 13 06] +64] 151,213 | 157,133] 136,774] +106
Removers "| 147,117 | 148334 | 1487528 08 Ol] +463 | 151681 | 155/364 | 136,204] +114
Unfilled orders’ : 314,164 | 312,776 | 312(095 | +04] +02 00 | 311712 | 311244 | 305-101 422
With unfilled orders :
Shipments ....... 121,306 | 121,914 | 122,161 05 02] +36] 124369] 131,619] 113,064] +100
New orders 1215624 | 122;783 | 121/217 709 | +13] $38 | 1247333 | 129'903 | 11118 | +119
Primary metals :
Shipments . 13493] 13396] 13,3598] +07] +03 14,028 | 13,935 | 11,861 | +183
New orders 14414 | 14375 | 13,696 | +03] +50] +52] 14297) 14028] 11589 | +228
Unfilled orders’: 27843 | 26922 | 25943] 434] +38 6,109 | 25;910 | 20116 | +236
Industrial mac!
Shipments. . 28705 | 284ig | 28.407 | 410 oo] + 28,125 | 30,703 | 23,723
New orders ° 9963 | 29,739 | 29883 | +08 05] +49] 29988] 31,656] 24428 | +228
Unfilled orders’ | aes ‘ 63,073 | +20 2.1 65.716 | 63;853 | 51,323
Electronic and other
23,505 | 23,347} 23,133] +07] +09) +15] 23,923] 25,691] 20,346] +176
23499 | 23/392 | 221437 | +05] 443] +11 | 24145 | 25,176 +92
Unfilled orders 45,448 | 457454 409 00 0.1 “5 | 45172 | 44950 | 48,772 “13
‘Transportation equipment : :
Shipments 37,202 | 39,433 | 40,612 $7 29] +171] 39,607] 40,339 | 39.473
New o1 357189 | 38,828 | 38,798 94] +01] +201 | 37905 | 397210 | 36,568 43.7
Untied onders 201;761 | 203,774 | 204/379 -10 03 -09 | 2007515 | 202:217 | 217,609 79
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments . 44,908 | 45,156 | 45,013 05 | +03] +34] 43,545] 49,609] 39,994 489
New orders 43509 | 45817 | 43,742 50 | +447] +45 | 43207 | 49507 | 37744 | +147
Unfilled orders < : 309,775 | 311,174 | 310,513 04] 402} 04 | 308617 | 308/865 | 318,252 -3.0
Nondefense :
Shipments ........ 38,139 38,483 37,900 0.9 +15 433 36,913 42,470 32,527 +135
New orders : 37810 | 381956 | 37/505 29] 436] +35] 37169] 42405 | 31653 | +174
Unfilled orders’ | 199,133 | 199462 | 198/989 02 | +02] 02] 199{078 | 198822 | 199,601 -03
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Neworders |< | SR) BS] I) 83) Ha] BR] aa) Ma | | a8
lew orders. . 5 “0: , ‘ :
Unfilled orders 39,104 | 87653 | 85,982 | 41.7] +19 39049 | 87013 | 73,474 | 4212
Defense :
Shipments . . 6,769 6,673 73 | +14 62] +40 6,632 7,139 7,467 “112
New orders "2. |! 5,699 6,861 6147 | -169 | +116] +108 6.128 7192 6,091 +06
Unfilled orders’: | : 110642 | n7i2 | 111,524 0] “+02] 09 | 109/539 | 110/043 | 118,651 17

(NA) Not available. * Revised. -

" Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations,

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments and orders are subject to survey variability and revision. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling variability cannot be calculated
Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitation are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992."

Tie Copal Gomis nde ince Nonefeme; rus dsc, sam eng let, eral combuin ng, comton mining an marl hing equpmes, pvarting machinery, special industry
er, petal eal machinery, and office: refrigeration, heating and service and ‘industrial apparatus,
Complac aitraft, missles, and space Vehicles, areraft misses, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank componens, ralload equipment, and search and navigation
Defense capital goods include : ordnance, ‘communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, cach aad navignen equipment

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry "Year ago Oat Oat 1993-] Year ago Oct | Oct. 1593-] Year ago Oat] Oct. 1955-

Oct. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Sept. 1994 | Oct. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Sept. 1994] Oct. 1993] 1989-1993 | Sept. 1994

Durable goods 05 03 03 06 04 03 0.0 Ol 01

Primary metals 03 04 06 13 0.6 1. 0.5 04 0.6

Industrial machinery and equipment 0.6 08 0.7 07 Ll 0.8 03 01 0.2
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . . 2.6 0.8 0.6 3.5 13 Ll 04 02 03

Transportation equipment . 03 0.5 0.6 02 0.6 10 0.1 0.1 01

Nondefense capital goods 0.5 05 0.7 Ls Ll 09 02 0.1 0.1

Defense capital goods 3.6 0.8 09 5.7 24 6.5 01 0.1 03

Note: The
for the months specifi

ns are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to s
ed.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

175 175
New Orders

165 F---------------------------------4 __ 4165
Shipments

155

145

135

125

115 L L L i L —— L L a i L L L 115
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct

Oct. 1992- Oct. 1994

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
47 47

New Orders
42}----------------------------------- Shipments |+ 42

27 bet L 1 n n L n L L L L L LI 57

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Oct. 1992 - Oct. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.