With the cooperation of the Semiconductor Industry Association and many of its member companies, the Census Bureau

will again be able to publish shipments data on this important sector of our economy. The Census Bureau will not publish

orders data and will only publish inventory data at higher level aggregates. The first monthly press release which will

contain the semiconductor data is the July advance report on durable goods to be issued on August 26. However, historic

data up through June 2003 for all data series will be released, along with benchmark revisions, on August 19, 2003.

U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-04

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

May 28, 2003

CB-03-88

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

April 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. All figures exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $4.2 billion or 2.4 percent to $168.9 billion, the Department of Commerce,

U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.4 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.2 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent. Year-to-date, new orders for 2003 were 0.6 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $2.8 billion or 5.4 percent to $49.6 billion, led by defense aircraft and parts, which decreased by

$1.5 billion. Machinery decreased $0.8 billion or 3.7 percent to $21.8 billion.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in April decreased $1.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $170.3 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent March

increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2003 were 0.6 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.4 billion or 2.8 percent to $49.7 billion, led by motor vehicles and parts, which decreased by

$1.1 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $476.6 billion. This followed a 0.3

percent March increase.

Machinery, down twenty-nine of the past thirty-one months, had the largest decrease, $0.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $44.4 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods, down twenty-six of the past twenty-seven months, in April decreased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent

to $263.9 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent March decrease.

Computers and electronic products, down five consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $0.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $40.0 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in April decreased $2.1 billion or 19.4 percent to $8.8 billion. Shipments, at the

highest level since October 1993, increased $0.3 billion or 3.7 percent to $7.4 billion. Unfilled orders, at the highest level since October 1993,

increased $1.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $130.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $19.3 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in April decreased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $55.6 billion. Shipments

increased $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $56.1 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $208.7 billion. Inventories, down

twenty-six of the past twenty-seven months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $109.8 billion.

! REVISED MARCH DATA Revised seasonally adjusted March figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $329.7 billion (revised

from $330.0 billion); shipments, $328.1 billion (revised from $328.7 billion); unfilled orders, $477.9 billion (revised from $477.6 billion); and total

inventories, $433.1 billion (unrevised).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published June 5, 2003 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for May is

scheduled for June 25 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date Percent

Item Change

Apr Mar Feb Mar - Feb - Jan - Apr Mar Apr 2003/

2003 22003 r 2003 Apr 2 Mar r Feb 2003 22003 r 2002 2003 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Shipments................................ 170,294 171,564 170,675 -0.7 0.5 -1.9 167,830 185,645 174,259 673,066 676,835 -0.6

 New Orders.............................. 168,929 173,159 170,833 -2.4 1.4 -1.1 168,370 188,431 170,890 685,187 680,887 0.6

 Excluding transportation:4

 Shipments................................ 120,546 120,393 118,694 0.1 1.4 -3.0 118,460 129,172 120,299 468,316 468,573 -0.1

 New Orders.............................. 119,331 120,745 119,485 -1.2 1.1 -2.3 118,416 129,532 120,446 475,375 467,772 1.6

 Excluding defense:4

 Shipments................................ 161,426 163,060 161,964 -1.0 0.7 -2.1 159,632 176,144 167,330 640,324 648,170 -1.2

 New Orders.............................. 158,903 161,365 160,283 -1.5 0.7 -2.9 158,187 174,418 164,797 642,652 644,757 -0.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:4

 Shipments................................ 118,998 119,382 118,902 -0.3 0.4 -1.6 116,775 129,592 120,756 467,912 474,790 -1.4

 New Orders.............................. 117,633 120,977 119,060 -2.8 1.6 -0.4 117,315 132,378 117,387 480,033 478,842 0.2

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 10,719 10,957 10,985 -2.2 -0.3 -3.2 11,070 11,393 11,708 44,251 44,282 -0.1

 New Orders.............................. 10,553 10,363 10,871 1.8 -4.7 -2.8 10,828 10,868 11,624 44,259 44,813 -1.2

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,408 20,641 20,606 -1.1 0.2 -1.3 20,481 21,048 21,349 80,664 81,684 -1.2

 New Orders.............................. 20,236 20,496 20,247 -1.3 1.2 -1.7 20,532 21,050 21,219 80,775 81,738 -1.2

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 22,296 22,320 21,905 -0.1 1.9 -2.2 23,105 24,860 23,327 88,571 89,555 -1.1

 New Orders.............................. 21,849 22,686 21,836 -3.7 3.9 -2.5 23,154 25,163 23,369 90,296 87,884 2.7

 Computers and electronic products:4

 Shipments................................ 27,023 26,075 25,492 3.6 2.3 -4.7 24,065 30,409 23,445 99,763 100,058 -0.3

 New Orders.............................. 26,829 26,824 26,177 0.0 2.5 -4.2 24,205 31,184 23,615 104,172 100,491 3.7

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 7,489 6,233 6,608 20.2 -5.7 -14.0 6,303 7,877 5,320 25,939 24,485 5.9

 New Orders.............................. 7,415 6,431 6,451 15.3 -0.3 -13.1 6,103 8,071 5,016 25,680 24,368 5.4

 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 5,473 5,595 5,496 -2.2 1.8 -1.6 4,893 6,622 5,226 20,662 21,892 -5.6

 New Orders.............................. 6,039 6,365 6,371 -5.1 -0.1 0.8 5,653 7,579 5,292 24,981 22,446 11.3

 Semiconductors:5

 Shipments................................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 New Orders.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,609 8,644 8,568 -0.4 0.9 -4.3 8,406 9,324 8,981 33,598 34,979 -3.9

 New Orders.............................. 8,553 8,871 8,574 -3.6 3.5 -1.7 8,371 9,402 9,158 33,895 34,856 -2.8

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 49,748 51,171 51,981 -2.8 -1.6 0.8 49,370 56,473 53,960 204,750 208,262 -1.7

 New Orders.............................. 49,598 52,414 51,348 -5.4 2.1 1.8 49,954 58,899 50,444 209,812 213,115 -1.5

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 35,538 36,655 37,013 -3.0 -1.0 -2.6 36,417 39,750 40,847 150,269 151,783 -1.0

 New Orders.............................. 35,412 36,515 37,117 -3.0 -1.6 -2.2 36,151 39,526 40,823 150,543 152,448 -1.2

 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,306 5,980 6,071 -11.3 -1.5 28.0 4,819 7,099 6,015 21,465 26,972 -20.4

 New Orders.............................. 4,427 2,980 3,588 48.6 -16.9 -30.5 4,125 4,387 3,224 17,067 21,631 -21.1

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,362 3,299 3,249 1.9 1.5 0.4 2,898 3,671 2,474 11,968 10,177 17.6

 New Orders.............................. 4,285 5,822 2,449 -26.4 137.7 3.4 4,706 6,386 1,977 16,862 16,657 1.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 31,491 31,756 31,138 -0.8 2.0 -2.7 31,333 32,138 31,489 121,469 118,015 2.9

 New Orders.............................. 31,311 31,505 31,780 -0.6 -0.9 -0.9 31,326 31,865 31,461 121,978 117,990 3.4

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 63,567 62,997 62,328 0.9 1.1 -1.2 60,356 71,324 59,716 243,790 243,656 0.1

 New Orders.............................. 64,404 66,665 63,431 -3.4 5.1 -0.4 62,438 75,692 56,365 256,326 240,876 6.4

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 56,121 55,817 55,035 0.5 1.4 -1.4 53,341 63,307 53,874 215,897 219,306 -1.6

 New Orders.............................. 55,644 55,801 54,098 -0.3 3.1 -4.9 53,601 63,327 51,329 219,343 211,312 3.8

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 54,042 53,155 52,193 1.7 1.8 -3.5 51,529 59,905 50,745 206,759 205,139 0.8

 New Orders.......................... 53,874 55,516 53,006 -3.0 4.7 -2.4 52,098 62,302 50,939 213,795 204,240 4.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,446 7,180 7,293 3.7 -1.5 0.5 7,015 8,017 5,842 27,893 24,350 14.6

 New Orders.............................. 8,760 10,864 9,333 -19.4 16.4 37.4 8,837 12,365 5,036 36,983 29,564 25.1

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(01), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, 

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey,

 the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

5 Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor 

shipments, orders, or inventories.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Apr Mar Feb Mar - Feb - Jan - Apr Mar Apr 2003/

2003 22003 r 2003 Apr 2 Mar r

Feb 2003 2

2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 476,584 477,949 476,354 -0.3 0.3 0.0 484,526 483,986 506,010 -4.2

 Total Inventories....................... 263,850 264,127 264,681 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 264,507 262,233 268,416 -1.5

 Excluding transportation:4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 229,238 230,453 230,101 -0.5 0.2 0.3 233,000 233,044 247,526 -5.9

 Total Inventories....................... 190,328 191,020 191,430 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 191,265 190,371 196,623 -2.7

 Excluding defense:4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 327,294 329,817 331,512 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 330,952 332,397 357,847 -7.5

 Total Inventories....................... 239,882 240,515 241,678 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 240,654 239,101 246,251 -2.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 476,584 477,949 476,354 -0.3 0.3 0.0 484,526 483,986 506,010 -4.2

 Total Inventories....................... 214,196 214,542 214,973 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 214,658 212,773 219,394 -2.2

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,889 14,055 14,649 -1.2 -4.1 -0.8 14,313 14,555 16,634 -14.0

 Total Inventories....................... 18,969 19,039 19,091 -0.4 -0.3 0.8 18,775 18,850 18,144 3.5

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 36,849 37,021 37,166 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 37,053 37,002 39,863 -7.0

 Total Inventories....................... 30,806 30,827 30,779 -0.1 0.2 0.0 31,088 31,121 31,315 -0.7

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,426 44,873 44,507 -1.0 0.8 -0.2 45,339 45,290 51,743 -12.4

 Total Inventories....................... 44,086 44,135 44,101 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 44,385 44,304 46,065 -3.6

 Computers and electronic products:4

 Unfilled Orders......................... 109,736 109,930 109,181 -0.2 0.7 0.6 111,806 111,666 114,384 -2.3

 Total Inventories....................... 40,049 40,536 41,300 -1.2 -1.8 -1.1 40,124 39,493 44,627 -10.1

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 7,513 7,587 7,389 -1.0 2.7 -2.1 7,444 7,644 6,687 11.3

 Total Inventories....................... 6,646 6,892 6,863 -3.6 0.4 -0.3 6,722 6,609 7,185 -6.4

 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 40,943 40,377 39,607 1.4 1.9 2.3 41,989 41,229 42,807 -1.9

 Total Inventories....................... 8,024 8,146 8,328 -1.5 -2.2 -3.2 8,048 7,961 10,696 -24.8

 Semiconductors:5

 Unfilled Orders......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,363 14,419 14,192 -0.4 1.6 0.0 14,496 14,531 14,753 -1.7

 Total Inventories....................... 12,342 12,384 12,379 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 12,670 12,464 13,511 -6.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 247,346 247,496 246,253 -0.1 0.5 -0.3 251,526 250,942 258,484 -2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 73,522 73,107 73,251 0.6 -0.2 0.4 73,242 71,862 71,793 2.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,127 12,253 12,393 -1.0 -1.1 0.8 12,517 12,783 12,858 -2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 20,750 20,680 21,170 0.3 -2.3 0.7 20,724 20,424 20,076 3.2

 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 107,218 108,097 111,097 -0.8 -2.7 -2.2 107,592 108,286 118,002 -8.8

 Total Inventories....................... 29,619 29,315 29,555 1.0 -0.8 -1.8 29,424 28,784 29,913 -1.6

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 59,061 58,138 55,615 1.6 4.5 -1.4 61,193 59,385 57,763 5.9

 Total Inventories....................... 11,777 11,626 11,294 1.3 2.9 3.6 11,638 11,351 10,660 9.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 9,975 10,155 10,406 -1.8 -2.4 6.6 9,993 10,000 10,149 -1.5

 Total Inventories....................... 44,076 44,099 43,780 -0.1 0.7 0.3 44,223 44,139 42,961 2.9

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 338,759 337,922 334,254 0.2 1.1 0.3 344,193 342,111 352,658 -2.4

 Total Inventories....................... 129,063 129,833 129,860 -0.6 0.0 -0.7 129,482 128,346 136,569 -5.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 208,728 209,205 209,221 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 210,858 210,598 222,794 -5.4

 Total Inventories....................... 109,770 110,757 110,955 -0.9 -0.2 -1.1 110,103 109,601 117,619 -6.4

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 127,103 127,271 124,910 -0.1 1.9 0.7 129,233 128,664 136,008 -5.0

 Total Inventories................... 87,271 88,258 88,468 -1.1 -0.2 -0.7 87,864 87,562 94,196 -6.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 130,031 128,717 125,033 1.0 2.9 1.7 133,335 131,513 129,864 2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 19,293 19,076 18,905 1.1 0.9 1.2 19,379 18,745 18,950 2.3

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.