= — : — = ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE
WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 December 23, 1999
For Questions - Frances Porter or Lee Wentela CB99-249

(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4832

M3-1(99)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
November 1999
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $2.4 billion or 1.2 percent to
$204.9 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.9 percent October
decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.2 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 7.1 percent above the
same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $3.1 billion or 8.7 percent to $39.0 billion, due to
electronic components. This is the fifth increase in the last six months and the largest since July 1998. Primary metals, up
for the first time since July, increased $0.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $15.8 billion. Transportation equipment decreased $1.0
billion or 2.1 percent to $46.0 billion, due to aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment, down five of the last
seven months, decreased $0.8 billion or 2.0 percent to $38.8 billion.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in November increased $1.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $203.9 billion, following
a 0.2 percent October increase. This is the sixth increase in the last seven months. Year to date, shipments are 6.1 percent
above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the first time since July, had the largest increase, $0.7 billion or 2.0 percent
to $35.6 billion. Transportation equipment increased $0.5 billion or 1.i percent to $48.2 billion. Primary metals, up six of
the last seven months, increased $0.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $15.5 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, down
three of the last four months, decreased $0.6 billion or 1.6 percent to $38.8 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in November increased $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $501.5
billion, following a slight increase in October. This is the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Electronic and other electrical
equipment, up twelve consecutive months, had the largest increase, $3.4 billion or 4.4 percent to $79.8 billion. Primary
metals, up ten consecutive months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $32.6 billion. Transportation equipment, down
seventeen of the last nineteen months, decreased $2.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $223.3 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in November decreased $1.2 billion or 14.8 percent to $6.7
billion. Shipments increased $0.5 billion or 8.3 percent to $7.1 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.4 billion or 0.5
percent to $92.2 billion. This is the seventh decrease in the last eight months.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in November decreased $1.8 billion or 3.3 percent to
$54.4 billion. Shipments decreased $1.2 billion or 2.1 percent to $55.1 billion. Unfilled orders, down eight of the last nine
months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $251.1 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.6
billion or 1.1 percent to $48.3 billion; shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $47.8 billion; and unfilled orders,
up three consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $112.3 billion.

@ REVISED OCTOBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries are:

shipments, $360.0 billion (revised from $360.3 billion); new orders, $360.6 billion (revised from $360.0 billion); unfilled
orders, $526.0 billion (revised from $525.2 billion); and total inventories, $467.1 billion (revised from $467.0 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published January 5, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled for January 27,
2000 at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Nov, Oct. Sept. | Oct. | Sept- | Aug Noy, Oct Nov,
1999! 1999 1989 | Nov.? ct | Sept. 1999 1999% 1998 |Nov.99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Shipments ............. ---| 203,899 | 202,311 | 201,899] +08 +02 19] 203136 | 206013 | 194.672 443
New orders’! 204907 | 202462 | 204349 | +12 -09 <5 | 201216 | 210; 186,550 +79
Unfilled orders 501/502 | 500/494 | 500,343 | +0.2 bo] 403] 497960 | a95'886 | 4817308 +13
Excluding defense :
Shipments a 196,796 | 195,754] 195,440 | +0.5 +02 -19 | 195,595 | 200,382 | 187,520 +43
New orders "| mt 198,250 | 194;646 | 198/864 +19 24 “1:7 | 194098 | 202'812 | 180,611 4735
Unfilled orders 400381 | dors | 40n'88s | 04 703 | +08 | 407/502 | 408/999 | 398,437 423
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 168,378 165,775 | +0.7 +09 -18 | 168,156 161,677 +4.0
New orders : 1693386 168.229 | +12 “05 14 | 166,236 153.555 +83
Primary metals :
Shipments . 15,539 15,298 | 423 15,148 13,914 48.9
New orders. 2... 15.754 15,461 +21 02 “13 15319 42140 +83
Unfilled orders 32/571 32114 | +07 30/864 28,076 499
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 38,840 | 39,485 | 37,742 16] +46 25} 36451} 38,333 | 34,464 +5
New orders | |: : 387830 | 39.613 | 39077 2.0 +14 “01 | 36969 | 397013 | 33/930 49.0
Unfilled orders 2222522222222 80,931 | 80,941 80,813 oo} +02) +174 Bran 30,893 | 73.622 | +106

Electronic and other
electrical equipmen
Shipments . 35,6:
New orders 91222! :. | 3900)
Unfilled orders 798

0 | 34,907 | 35,307 +20
3 35,880 | 38,734 +87 ~
8 76.425 75,452 +44 +

33,995 +8.7
822, $34.9

Transportation equipment :

Shipments 48,179 | 47,658 | 48,555 +11 -18 48 49,747 -0.9
New orders... | rill tf 457962 | 46936 | _ 46,593 2) +0.7 49 46.476 +0.6
Unfilled orders 223,283 | 225.500 | 226222 “10 -03 -0.9 243,188 90
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total
shipments 62,234 | 62,874 -10 +25 3 60,034 +09
New orders’ | 2. | 6 x 47 +41 +0.1 665, 47.6
Unfilled orders 344,430 03 +03] +01 3.
Nondefense :
Shipments . 55,131 2.1 +26 42 53,062 52,882 +03
New orders... 54/420 33 +04 -0.7 52.780 49,726 +6.1
Unfilled orders 2] 251/052 03 00} +05 | 251/292 259,785 33
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments 47,839 47,392 +2.0 “Ll 45,848 43,142 +63
New orders |: : 48.292 8/990 LL -0:3 26} 40530 | 4937 | B50 498
Unfilled orders 1123301 111349 4 +04] 415 | 112541 | 111659 | 105,463 +6.7
Defense :
Shipments : 7,103 6,455 83 +16 0.2 541 6.531 7.182 5
New orders _ 6,637 5,485 148 | +425] +87 TAB 81038 5.930 +199
Unfilled orders 92.221 91,408 05 +14 “U1 901464 | 90,887 | 92.961

(NA) Not available, * Revise.

" Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for traing-day and calendur-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are out adjusted for tading-day oF calendar-month variations

ot, which mmchades errors of coverage

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey erar is nonsampling
‘fe custuined in our mest recent annual

respnse and noneeping Since the survey pael nt a pray sare, eximate of sampling err can be called, Futer deta om survey design, metblogy, ad ats tat
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), "Manufacturers" Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1

The Capital Goods Industries inchude Nondefense ; ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, iternal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery. spevia industry
‘machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, euing and service industry machinery, electrical tansmission and istibution equipment, eketrical instal apparatus, communication eyurpmen
Complete aitraft, missiles. and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships und tank componens, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital goods inchade = ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehiles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Table 2. AVERA'

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1998- | Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1998-] Year ago Nov. [Nov. 1998-

Nov. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Oct. 1999 | Nov. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Oct. 1999] Nov. 1998] 1994-1998 | Oct. 1999

Durable goods . 0.1 0.1 mt 0.7 03 0.9 0.2 OL 0.5

Primary metals . 08 0.6 12 0.8 08 08 ol 0.2 10

Industrial machinery and equipment 03 03 21 0.7 09 Md 03 03 10
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 0.5 08 13 24 1 21 Ld 07 Lt

‘Transportation equipment 03 05 42 02 0.8 21 00 02 0.6

Nondefense capital goods . 0.5 06 24 1.0 Ld 14 0.0 0.2 0.6

Defense capital goods 0.0 7 29 47 12.5 0.6 03 13

es of the differences, without regard to

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple avera
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

225 225
New Orders

215 --------- 22-22 eee eee eee -------] Shipments |-] 215

205

205

195 195

185 185

175 L 1 JL L L 1 i 1. 1 i it 1 175
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Nov. 1997 - Nov. 1999

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
64 64

New Orders

59 | Shipments | ---------------------------------- +459

44 be 1 n n L L L L L L i lL wt 44

Nov Jan Mar May — Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1997- Nov. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.