U.S. Department of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Washington, D.C. 20233

Official Business
Penalty for Private Use, $300

FIRST-CLASS MAIL
POSTAGE & FEES PAID
CENSUS
PERMIT No. G-58

PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1995 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Report
Covering

Advance Report
Release Dates
(8:30 a.m. release time)

(10:00

Regular Report
Release Dates
a.m. release time)

December 1994
January 1995
February 1995
March 1995
April 1995
May 1995

June 1995
July 1995
August 1995
September 1995
October 1995

November 1995

Thur., Jan. 26
Fri., Feb. 24
Fri., Mar. 24
Wed., Apr. 26
Wed., May 24
Fri., June 23
Thur., July 27
Thur., Aug. 24
Wed., Sept. 27
Thur., Oct. 26
Wed., Nov. 29

Wed., Dec. 27

Fri., Feb. 3
Fri., Mar. 3
Fri., Mar. 31
Wed., May 3
Thurs., June 1
Fri., June 30
Thur., Aug. 3
Thur., Aug. 31
Wed., Oct. 4
Thur., Nov. 2
Wed., Dec. 6

Thur., Jan 4, 1996



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | sts.
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable January 26, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95-21
M3-1(94)-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
December 1
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $2.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $161.4 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 3.2 nt increase in November and is the ninth in
1994 and the fourteenth in the last seventeen months. Year to date, new orders are 13.9 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.1 billion or 5.4 percent to $41.6 billion; large increases led by
shipbuilding and tanks were only Partially offset by a decline in aircraft and aircraft parts. This follows a 12.0 percent increase in
November and is the fourth in the last five months. Primary metals increased $0.8 billion or 5.2 Potcent to $15.4 billion, the fifth
consecutive monthly increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.7 billion or 3.0 percent to $25.5 billion, the fifth
consecutive increase and the ninth in 1994. Stone, clay, and Blass products, and instruments and related products also increased.
Industrial machinery and cquipment had the largest decline, $1.5 billion or 5.0 percent to $28.5 billion, following a 1.2 percent decline
in November. This is the third decline in the last four months and the sixth in 1994.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in December increased $1.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $158.4 billion. This follows an increase of
3.0 percent in November and is the seventh increase in 1994. Primary metals increased $0.6 billion or 4.4 percent to $14.8 billion,
the eleventh consecutive monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment was up $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $28.5 billion.
This follows a 1.1 percent November decline and is the seventh increase in the last eight months. Electronic and other electrical
equipment, up for the fourteenth consecutive month, increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $24.6 billion. Transportation equipment
declined 0.1 percent to $39.8 billion, with an increase in motor vehicle and parts partially offsetting declines led by aircraft and aircraft
arts. This follows a 6.9 percent increase in November anc is the seventh decline in 1994. Year to date, durable goods shipments are
1.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in December increased $3.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $431.2 billion, the fourth consecutive
monthly increase. Transportation equipment increased $1.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $203.0 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent decrease
in November and is the first increase since January 1994. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.9 billion or 1.9 percent
to $47.0 billion, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Primary metals was up $0.7 billion or 2.3 percent to $29.2 bilion, the
thirteenth consecutive monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the eighteenth consecutive month, increased $0.1
billion or 0.1 percent to $68.1 billion.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were up $3.5 billion or 65.0 percent to $9.0 billion, due to Shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 6.:

ent decrease in November, is the sixth increase in 1994 and the largest increase since December 1991. Shipments decreased $0.
Pittion or 5.8 percent to $6.4 billion, following a 0.6 percent increase in November. Unfilled orders increased $2.6 billion or 2.
percent to $112.0 billion, the first increase since September.

BRD

Nondefense - New orders decreased $2.9 billion or 7.1 percent to $37.9 billion, with the largest decreases in aircraft and
aircraft parts, and steam engines and turbines. This follows a 6.4 percent increase in November and is the seventh decrease in 1994.
Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $38.4 billion, following a November increase of 1.8 percent. Unfilled orders
decreased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $201.0 billion, the first decline since August. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent, following a 1.0 percent decline in November; shipments increased slightly to $34.0 billion, the
fifth consecutive monthly increase; unfilled orders increased $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent, the nineteenth consecutive monthly increase.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1995 RELEASE DATES)

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published February 3, 1995. The advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled for February 24, 1995. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Dec, Nov. Gat | Nove | Oct. | Sept Dec, Nov. Dec. =
1994 1994" 1994 | Dec? | Nov" ct. 194° 1994 1993 | Dec.94/93
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments . 152,586 | +07] +30) -11 | 157,473 | 157,998 | 144,924 48.7
New orders 154,150 | +14] +32] -08 | 161246 | 159!057 | 142/095 | +13:5
Unfilled orders 426,266 | 40.7) +035] +04] 427;401 | 4337628 | 417627 423
Excluding defense :
Shipments. . 151,940 | 150,387 | 145,818] +10] 43.1 -13 | 149,603 | 150,848 | 136,833 493
New orders" ” 152/371 | 153,665 | 148,339 08} +436] 01} 149524 | 153451 | 134144] 4115
Unfilled orders’: ° }: 3197152 | 318721 | 315/443 | 40.1 +10] +08] 3157117 | 315196 | 300'489 +4.
With unfilled orders :
Shipments Le 124,033 | 121,137} +404] +24] -06] 127,756 | 125,054] 118,429 47.9
New orders 125,954 | 122,701} +13 | 427) 0.2] 131529 | 126113 | 115600 | +138
Primary metals :
ipments .. . 14,764) 14,147] 13,590] +44 13,703 | 13,937] 11011 | 4244
New orders. | Isai4 | 14654] 14635 | 452] 401 159023 | 14230 | 11528} +303
Unfilled orders 225222: 29,150 | 28'500 | 27:993 | +23 27,929 | 26,60 21/548 | +29
Industrial machinery and equipmes
Shipments tee 28,463 | 28,290 | 28,592 | +06 31,238 | 27,604 | 29,048 475
New orders: 28532 | 30/046 | 30/415 “5.0 12] +19] 307829 | 29/880 | 20/486 +46
Unfilled orders’! 68,115 | 68,046 | 66,290 | +01] 426 67,935 | 68344 | 52/978 | +282

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :

Shipment 24,578 24,451 23,611 +05 +36 +12 26,034 25,312 22,039 +18.1
New orders . 25,469 24,732 23,974 43.0 43.2 424 26,419 25,673 21,181 +24.7
Unfilled orders . . 47,006 46,115 45,834 +19 +0.6 40.8 46,088 45,703 44,438 43.7
Transportation equipment :
shipments ..... 39,840 39,877 37,303 01 46.9 5.5 38,044 40,437 36,850
New orders. 41,564 39,450 35,231 +5.4 +12.0 9.4 40,751 39,944 4,582 +178
Unfilled orders wee 203,006 201,282 201,709 +0.9 0.2 -l 202,818 200,111 213,476
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 44,853 45,650 44,911 -L7 +16 -0.6 52,495 45,622 al
lew orders . 46,852 46,193 44,087 +14 +48 41 55,194 46,510 48,965
Unfilled orders . 313,035 311,036 310,493 +0.6 +02 03 313,017 310,318 314,475
Nondefense :
Shipments 38,440 38,842 38,143 “1.0 +18 0.9 44,625 38,472 43,100
New orders. 37,859 40,742 5.276, -71 +64 2.0 43,472 40,904 41,014 +6.0
Unfilled order 200/989 | 201,570 | 199670} -0:3. | 41:0] +01 | 2007733 | 201'886 | 197'337
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments ..... 2.0.0... 34,029 34,028 33,655 0.0 +11 +0.1 39,123 33,767 35,927 +89
New orders... . . . 35,143 35,282 35,651 0.4 -10 +0.8 39,665 35,553 37,307 +63
Unfilled orders .... wee 92,092 90,978 89,724 +12 +14 42.3 91,836 91,294 75,658 4214
Defense :
Shipments . . 6,413 6,8( 6,768 5.8 40.6 +13 7,870 7,150 8,091 2.7
New orders. . 8,993 5,451 3,811 +65.0 62 16.3 11,722 5,606 7,951 +474
Unfilled orders 112,046 109,46¢ 110,823 +24 -12 0.9 112,284 108,432 117,138 4.1

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

| Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for wading-day and calendar-momth variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations,
{Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments and orders are subject to survey variability and revision. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling variability cannot be calculated.
Funtber details on survey design, methodology, and data timitation are convained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), "Manufacturers" Shipments, Inventories, ancl Ordets. 1982-1990."
Jyite Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories steam engines and turbines, intemal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
ry general industrial . . heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, elecirical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment. and search and navigation equipment,
Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Dec. | Dec. 1993-| Year ago Dec. ] Dec. 1993-] Year azo Dee. | Dec. 1993-

Dec. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Nov. 1994} Dec. 1993| 1989-1993 | Nov. 1994] Dec. 1993 1989-1993 | Nov, 1994

Durable goods . 04 06 02 0.1 0.7 03 0.2 Ol 0.2

Primary metals . . 16 09 07 02 1.0 Ll 0.7 05 05

Industrial machinery and equipment . 0.0 04 0.6 0.7 ll 0.7 01 04 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 08 07 04 Ls 22 10 04 0.5 04

Transportation equipment. 05 09 07 27 21 10 02 01 01

Nondefense capital goods . 04 09 06 13 1.6 1.0 02 03 O01

Defense capital goods . . . 0.5 16 0.6 8.5 6.7 61 0.5 03 03

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and fingl estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to si
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders

178 P--------------------------------- J _—_ 4175
Shipments

165 fF----------------------------------70 777 J 165

155 155

145 145

135 135

125 ! n l L ! n n n L L Ld 125
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1992 -Dec. 1994

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
47 47

New Orders
42F-----------------------------------

Shipments |] 42

27 bn i L 1 n L L i 1 L n n n

27
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1992 -Dec. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.