UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | sitinsin
Ni =—=WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mONCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth September 24, 1993
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB93-173
M3-1(93)-8

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
August 1993
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $2.6 billion or 2.0 percent to $131.2 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.8 percent decrease in July and is the second
increase in the last three months. Year to date, 1993 new orders are 8.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $2.3 billion or 7.9 percent to $31.5 billion, as increases in motor
vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts more than offset a decline in shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 16.3 percent
decrease in July. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders increased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent. Industrial machinery
and equipment, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.5 billion or 2.3 percent to $24.3 billion, with more than half
the increase in computer and office equipment. The largest decline was in electronic and other electrical equipment, down
$0.8 billion or 4.0 percent to $19.6 billion, primarily due to electronic components. This follows a 3.0 percent increase in July.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in August increased $4.7 billion or 3.6 percent to $133.9 billion, the largest increase since
December 1992. This follows a 4.3 percent decrease in July and is the second increase in the last three months. Nine of ten
major groups increased. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $3.1 billion or 10.0 percent to $34.0 billion,
primarily due to motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts. This follows a 12.9 percent decline in July. Year to date,
durable goods shipments are 7.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in August decreased $2.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $432.9 billion, the lowest level
since July 1988. This is the sixth consecutive monthly decline and twenty-fifth in the last thirty months. Transportation
equipment, down for the sixteenth consecutive month, had the largest decrease, down $2.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $226.3
billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts. This is the lowest level since March 1989, Excluding transportation equipment,
unfilled orders were down $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent. Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase, up $0.5
billion or 1.0 percent to $51.2 billion.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $0.6 billion or 8.8 percent to $6.6 billion, primarily due to shipbuildin and tanks.
This follows a 24.9 percent increase in July. Shipments were down $0.5 billion or 6.3 percent to $7.1 billion, following a 0.1
percent decrease in July. This is the lowest level since November 1984. Unfilled orders, down nineteen of the last twenty
months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.4 percent to $122.9 billion, the lowest level since January 1984.

Nondefense - New orders increased $1.9 billion or 6.3 percent to $32.0 billion, following a 11.0 percent decrease in
July. Shipments were up $2.0 billion or 6.3 percent to $33.7 billion, the highest level on record. This follows a 5.0 percent
decrease in July. Unfilled orders declined $1.7 billion or 0.8 percent to $203.3 billion, the fifteenth decline in the last seventeen
months. This is the lowest level since June 1989. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.4 billion or 1.6 percent,
the sixth increase in the last seven months; shipments increased $0.2 billion or 0.9 percent, also the sixth increase in the last
seven months; and unfilled orders increased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent, the seventh increase in the last nine months.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published October 1, 1993. ‘The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled
for October 27, 1993. ‘This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-
3870) and through the Census Burcau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from
Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). The CENDATA staff at the Rurean of the Census (301-762 20174\


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
‘Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted ‘Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Aug, Jub June | July; | June- | May- Au; Jah Aug.
199. 1993" 1993 | Aug? | July’ | June 199. 1993" 1992 | Aug.93/92
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments 133,944 | 129,233 | 135,042 | 43.6 43] 421 | 131,894] 112,735 | 122,907 473
orders 131177 | 128,554) 132,252 | +2.0 2B) +43] 127912 | 112,541 | 16,7 495
Uatiled onde 432,925 | 435,692 | 436371 06 02 06 | 431,945 | 435; 462,715 66
Exgluding defense
Shipments. 126,835 | 121,643 | 127,448 | +43 46] +20] 125,134] 106,007 | 115,477 48.4
‘New orders "| 124,580 | 121,324 | 126,464 | +27 Al] +42] 122550 | 106,567 | 111:979 494
Unfilled orders’ : 310,002 | 312;257 | 312,576 07 0.1 -03 | 310913 | 313,497 | 331,808 63
With unfilled orders
Shipments .. . 108,029 | 104,542 | 108,429 | +33 36] +26] 106,205] 92,770] 99,579 46.7
New orders 105,262 103,863 105,639 +13 AT 4 102,223 3,436 49.4
Primary metals
Shipments 11346 | 11,139] 11,628 | +19 42] +40] 11,491 10,261 11,441
11,024 10,869 11,095 +14 2.0 +12 10,769 10,214 11,132 33
Unttled orders 22,034 | 22,356 | 22,626 -14 12 23] 22,183 | 225 21572
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . . seveessesP 23,786 | 23,451] 23,190 | +14 1 04 | 22,056 | 20,378 | 19,611 +125
New orders... : 24/288 | 23,753 | 22,932 | +23 +36 -12 | 22,926 | 20,502 19275 | +189
Unfilled orders’ : , 50, 507362 | +11 0: 05} 51,092 222 | 50,853 +05
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments : 19,615 | 19,232} 19,517 | +2.0 15] +36 19,481 17,219 | 16,932 | +151
New orders. 191642 | 20462 | 19,865 40} +30] +92] 19297 185617 16,879 | +143
Unfilled orders 43,766 | 43,739 | 42,509 | +0.1 429] +08 | 43,666 | 43,850 | 42,090 43.7
Transportation equipment :
Shipmer 30,876 | 35,443 | +100] -129] +34] 32,721 | 23,603 | 30,995
New orders : 31,512 204 | 34903 | +79] -163] +145] 29) 21460 | 26,742 | +10.9
Untilied orders’: | 2 228,792 | 230/464 - 07 -02 | 224,994 | 228,046 | 256,309
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments... . . s...-[ 40,832 | 39301 | 40,984] 43.9 Al] 422] 38,465 | 34,542 | 36,240 +61
New orders. « 38,605 | 37353 | 39638 | +3.4 58] +121 35,749 | 32045 | 30,641 +167
Unfilled orders . 326,258 | 328;485 | 330,433 07 -06 -04 | 324296 | 327,012 | 357,110 92
Nondefense :
‘Shipments 33,723 | 31,711 33,390 3 5.0] 42.1 31,705 | 27,814 | 28,810 | +10.0
New orders 32,008 30,123 33,850 +63 110} +13.1 30,387 26,071 25,856 417.5
Unfilled orders’ © : 203,335 | 205,050 | 206,638 + 08 203,264 | 204,582 | 226,203 -101
Excluding aircraft and parts:
27,671 | 27,435 | 27312] +09] +051 +08] 26169] 24,153 | 23,567] +110
Rewrorders :} 28,068 | 27,631 | 27577 | +16 +02] +31] 26963 | 24,194 | 22,855 | +18.0
Unfilled orders... see 72,236 71,839 71,643 +0.6 +03 +04 72,165 71,371 71,253 +13
Defense :
Shipments . . 7,109 7,590 94 01] +28 6,760 6,728 7,430 -9.0
New orders”: 6,597 77230 5,788 4249) +65 5,362 5/974 4785 | +121
Unfilled orders . 122/923 123/435 123,795 0.3 14 121,032 122/430 130,907 15

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

*Shipmens and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for tating-tay and calendar- month variations; uniled orders ae a ofthe end ofthe period and are not adjusted for wading. day or calendar-month variations.
2 Based on advance sample.

Te Cana Gon nies cae Noone nanan sceuri, seam ager, an nine, ral mtu ng sonst mining ad mania ang enipmen. metlvrking mactiney. ci xy
al industria] machinery, compute and offic equpmet, celcigeraton, eaing an service nha machinery, elesnal and
‘Somplee sera. mse, and space veils, aicraft missiles, and space vehicle cages and parts, shipe and tank railroad and search and

Defense capital goods include ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, ‘ach aad tigen equine

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago ‘Aug, [Aug. 1992- | Year ago ‘Aug. | Aug. 1992-] Year ago ‘Aug. [Aug. 192-

Aug. 1992 | 1988-1992 | July 1993 | Aug. 1992] 1988-1992 | July 1993] Aug. 1992] 1988-1992} July 1993

Durable goods . 02 01 03 03 02 03 on Ol ol

Primary metals . 09 03 03 02 06 1 ol 02 04

Industrial machinery’ and equipment . 00 10 07 00 09 08 05 02 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . 04 02 0s os os 07 0.1 on 02

Transportation equipment | 03 08 07 15 07 12 0. ol 01

Nondefnse capital goods « 00 07 06 02 17 13 00 02 o.

Defense capi 04 09 09 34 13 30 02 o4 02

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

150 | - _ 150
New Orders
140 Po ee en ee Shipments |-] 140
130 130
120 120
110 110
100 l = L 1 L 1 1 a L L L 1 L 100
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1991 - Aug. 1993
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 _ 45

New Orders |

40 - - re re ene eee eee eee Shipments

I
&

25 bo n n n 1 L L n n L n n J

25
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

Aug. 1991 - Aug. 1993

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars,