UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | siti,
N EWwSs WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth August 25, 1993
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB93-152
M3-1(93)-7

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
July 1993
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $5.0 billion or 3.8 percent to $127.5 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a revised 4.5 percent increase in June and is
the fourth decline in the last five months. Year to date, 1993 new orders are 7.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $6.3 billion or 18.1 percent to $28.5 billion, primarily due
to aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 14.3 percent increase in June and is the largest decrease
since November 1990. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders increased $133 billion or 13 percent. Industrial
machinery and equipment had the largest increase, up $1.0 billion or 4.5 percent to $24.0 billion, with more than half the
increase in computer and office equipment. Instruments and related products also had a large increase.

Shipments
Shipments of durable goods in July decreased $5.7 billion or 4.2 percent to $129.3 billion, the largest decline since

December 1991. This follows a 2.1 percent increase in June, and is the third decline in the last four months. Transportation
equipment had the largest decrease, down $4.5 billion or 12.8 percent to $30.9 billion, primarily due to motor vehicles and parts
and aircraft and parts. Primary metals decreased $0.5 billion or 4.1 percent to $11.2 billion. Electronic and other electrical
equipment decreased $0.4 billion or 2.1 percent to $19.1 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase,

up $0.5 billion or 2.3 percent to $23.7 billion, due to computer and office equipment. Year to date, durable goods shipments
are 7.3 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in July decreased $1.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $434.7 billion, the lowest level since
August 1988. This is the fifth consecutive monthly decline. All major groups declined except electronic and other electrical
equipment, industrial machinery and equipment, and stone, clay, and glass products. Transportation equipment had the largest
decrease, down $2.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $228.0 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts. This is the fifteenth consecutive
monthly decline. Excluding transportation equipment, unfilled orders were up $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent. Electronic and other
clectrical equipment had the largest increase, up $0.8 billion or 1.9 percent to $43.6 billion, primarily due to electronic
components,

Capital Goods Industries

. Defense - New orders were up $0.7 billion or 13.2 percent to $6.4 billion, following a 4.5 percent increase in June.
Shipments were up 0.3 percent to $7.6 billion, following a 2.9 percent increase in June. Unfilled orders, down eighteen of the
last nineteen months, decreased $1.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $122.5 billion, the lowest level since January 1984.

Nondefense - New orders decreased $3.6 billion or 10.8 percent to $30.2 billion, following a 13.1 percent increase in
June. Shipments were down $1.5 billion or 4.6 percent to $31.9 billion, following a 2.1 percent increase in June. Unfilled
orders declined $1.7 billion or 0.8 percent to $205.0 billion, the fourteenth decline in the last sixteen months. This is the lowest
level since June 1989, Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent; shipments increased $0.2
billion or 0,9 percent; and unfilled orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published September 2, 1993. ‘The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled
for September 24, 1993. ‘This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Foonomic Rulletin Reard (N-&1) (990-


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
july June May | June: | May-| Apr. Jul June Jul
199: 1993¢ 199: July! | June’ | “May 199. 1993" 1993 | suly93/92
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments . . 129,339 | 135,067 | 132,307 42] 421 -0.3 | 112,934 | 148,762 | 109,979
New orders’ | 127451 | 132/463 | 126,783 38] +45) 24] 1916 | 143151 | 1051131 +65
Unfilled orders 434,669 | 436,557 | 439:161 “0.4 06 | 12 | 435:103 | 436;121 | 468/858 :
Excluding defen:
Shipments. 121,712 | 127,464 | 124,919 4s | +20 106212 | 140,693 | 102,945 43.2
New orders 1217026 | 126,787 | 121349 45] +45 106,881 | 137,711 | 100,742 +61
Unfilled orders 312197 | 312;883 | 3137560 | -0.2 0.2 313,606 | 312/937 | 335/306 65
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 104,725 | 108,451 | 105,706 | 34] +26] -01| 92,885 | 119.458 | 91,489 +15
New orders 102,837 | 105.847 | 100,182 28] 45:7) 27] 91867 | 113;847 | 86,641 6.0
Primary metals
Shipments 11153 | 11,627 | 11,181 4.1 4 19 | 10284 | 12,286 | 10,688 38
New orders "| 11028 | 111096 | 10,962 06} +12] 22] 10374} 11517 | 10:61 “45
Unfilled orders 22'503 | 22'628 | 23,159 0.6 2 09 3042 | 22952 | 21,881 453
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . 23,740 | 23,208] 23,275 03] +16] 20554] 26974] 18339 | +12.
New orders’ |: 239 938 | 23:20 +455 Li} +09] 20;707 | 26,248 | 17939 | +15:4
Unfilled orders ! 50/89 | 50354 | 50/620 05} 01] 50251 | 50, 51,189 “18
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
‘Shipments 19,086 | 19,502} 18832] -21] 436] +13] 17,121] 20958] 15,936 +74
New orders 19910 | 20,130 | 18197 | 11 | +106] «33 | isis | 20514] 161028 | +149
Unfilled order 43.613 | 42,789 | azier | +19] +S} 1S | 43:746 | 42452 | 425143 43.8
Transportation equipment : t
Shipments . . 30938 | 35.477] 34261] -128] +35] -26] 23,658] 39396| 24,841 -48
New orders’ <2 002002222221] agisag | 3a'84a | 300482 | 181 | +143] “4.1 | 20702 | 38/284 | —_20'512 +09
Unfilled orders’ | 227,957 | 230/371 | 231,004 -1.0 03} “116 | 227233 | 230/189 | 260,362 -128
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments . . 39,495 | 41,004 | 40,091 +23] +09] 34582] 46,837] 34,501 +02
New orders 36,627 | 39/522 | _ 35,365 73) +118} 52] 311160] 44138 | 29'399 +6.0
Unfilled orders 327,429 | 330297 | 331:779 | -0.9 -04|  -14 | 326,087 | 329;509 | 362;709 -10:1
Nondefense :
Shipments ........... 31,868 | 33,401 | 32,703 46] 421] +15] 27,860] 38,768] 27,467 +14
New orders "202202222... ] 307202 | _33;846 | 29931 | 108} +131] -17 | 26125 | 38698 | 25;010 +45
Unfilled orders’ |<}: n 204°987 | 206,623 | 206,178 | -08| +02}  -13 | 204390 | 206,325 | 2291157 10.7
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . 27,539 | 27,302 | 27,083 2 31,576 | 22,296 +83
New orders 27665 | 27/352} 26.75 2494 | 3V311 | 20747 | 113
Unfilled ord 71,754 | 71628 | 71/378 n 717330 | 713965 08
Defense :
Shipments 7,627 7,603 7,388 6,722 8,069 7.034 “44
New orders "| || 6,425 5676 51434 5.035, 5.440 4389 | +147
Unfilled orders: | 122472 | 123,674 | 125,601 121,497 | _123,184 | 133,552. | -9.0

(NA) Not available, * Revise.

" Shipments. and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations,

* Based on advance sample,

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining, and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
‘machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical Wansmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,

‘complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pans, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment
Defense capital goods include = ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

‘Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Taly | July 1992- | Year ago Tuly | July 1992-| Year ago Taly | July 1992-

July 1992 | 1988-1992 | June 1993 | July 1992] 1988-1992] June 1993] July 1992] 1988-1992] June 1993

Durable goods . 05 03 03 07 05 03 03 01 on

Primary metals . : 03 09 03 02 Ul 10 02 03 04

Industrial machinery and equipment 08 07 07 07 Ul 08 0.0 oa 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment... . 10 09 06 12 08 07 0.0 03 01

‘Transportation equipment 24 08 09 29 14 14 07 03 02

Nondefense capital goods .......... 27 08 07 16 18 14 06 03 02

Defense capital goods... 18 10 10 49 25 34 04 02 02

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to si;


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

150 150
New Orders

140 f------------------------------------ Shipments |-] 140

130

120

110

100 be ! Nl ! ! ! n i ! l ! H ded 100

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul
Jul. 1991 - Jul. 1993

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

45 45
New Orders

40 F-------- +--+ - 2-5-5222 - +--+ +--+ ---------

Shipments |-{ 40

25 Lu n L 1 L L L L n L n fl Ld 25

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
Jul. 1991 - Jul. 1993

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.