UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | =.
N —-WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 POR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 10:00 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 May 28, 1998
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela ‘CB98-94
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852

M3-1(98)-04

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
April 1!
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $4.9 billion or 2.6 percent to $191.2 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.2 percent March increase and is the third
increase in the last four months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent, the fifth consecutive monthly
increase. Year-to-date, new orders are 6.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up for the first month since January, had the largest increase, $3.9 billion or 9.2 percent to $46.0
billion; increases led by aircraft and parts, more than offset decreases led by motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 0.7 percent
March decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the iast five months, increased $1.2 billion or 3.8 percent to
$32.4 billion, due to electronic components. This follows a 1.2 percent March increase. Primary metals, up two of the last three
months, increased $0.6 billion or 4.4 percent to $15.3 billion, following a 5.4 percent March decrease. Industrial machinery and
equipment, down for the first month since November, decreased $0.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $37.0 billion. This follows a 2.3
percent March increase.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in April decreased $1.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $188.7 billion. This follows a 1.2
percent March increase and is the first decrease since January. Year-to-date, shipments are 7.1 percent above the same period a
year ago.

Transportation equipment, down for the first month since January, had the largest decrease, $0.8 billion or 1.7 percent to $44.9
billion; decreases led by motor vehicles and parts and railroad equipment, more than offset increases led by aircraft and parts. This
follows a 3.0 percent March increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased
$0.5 billion or 1.5 percent to $30.5 billion, following a 0.1 percent March decrease. Primary metals, down for the second
consecutive month, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to Bi53 billion, following a 0.9 percent March decrease. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up for the fifth consecutive month, increased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $37.2 billion. This follows a
2.2 percent March increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in April increased $2.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $515.4 billion. This
follows a 0.8 percent March decrease and is the first increase since January. Electronic and other electrical equipment had the
largest increase, $1.9 billion or 3.4 percent to $58.6 billion. This follows a 0.4 percent March increase and is the third increase in
the last four months. Transportation equipment, up for the first month since January, increased $1.1 billion or 0.4 percent to
$260.0 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This follows a 1.4 percent March decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down
for the first month since January, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $73.5 billion, following a 0.8 percent March increase.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE _ New orders in April, up for the first month since January, increased $2.6
billion or 51.8 percent to $7.7 billion, following a 5.5 percent March decrease. Shipments, down for the first month since
December, decreased 0.5 percent to $6.7 billion, following a 3.3 percent March increase. Unfilled orders, up for the first month
since January, increased $0.9 billion or 0.9 percent to $103.2 billion, following a 1.7 percent March decrease.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in April, up for the first month since January, increased $1.3
billion or 2.5 percent to $51.2 billion, following a slight March decrease. Shipments, down for the first month since November,
decreased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $51.0 billion. This follows a 2.3 percent March increase. Untilled orders, up for the first
month since January, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $266.8 billion, following a 0.4 percent March decrease. Excluding
aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $1.3 billion or 3.1 percent to $42.2 billion, the first decrease since November; shipments
decreased $0.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $42.9 billion, the first decrease since January; and unfilled orders decreased $0.7 billion or
0.7 percent to $103.3 billion, the first decrease since December.

@ REVISED MARCH DATA Revised seasonally adjusted March figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $340.6

billion (revised from $340.5 billion); new orders, $336.0 billion (revised from $336.2 billion); unfilled orders, $538.4 billion
(revised from $538.7 billion); and total inventories, $458.8 billion (unrevised from $458.8 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 4, 1998 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for May is scheduled for June 24, 1998 at 8:30
AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
tem Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Apr, Mar. Feb. | Mar; | Feb | Jan prs Mar, Apr,
198 1998 1998 | Apr? | Mar’ | Feb. 1998 1998 1997 | Apr.98/97
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 188,669 | 190,514 } 188,233 - +12] +28} 186,998 | 206,243 | 177,787
New orders” | 191,155 | 186226 | 185800 | +26] +02] -09| 191022 | 199565 | 177;266 +78
Unfilled orders: 515,373 | 512/887 | 317,175 08 | -0.5 | 519{843 | 515,819 | 501,539 +36
Excluding defense :
Ship 181,924 | 183,737 | 181,675 -10 +2. 180,534 | 199,021 | 171,767 45.1
New orders 183-497 | 181181 | 180460] +13] +04] +03 | 183514] 193313 | 171-712 +69
Unfilled orders’: 2 412,206 | 4107633 | 413,189 | +04 “0. + 414314 | 411/334 | 389/819 +63
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. . 155,373 | 196,553 | 154,922 08 | +11] +26] 151,452 | 169,855 | 143,082 45.8
New orders 157859 | 152/265 | 152\489 | #3.7 0:1 -1.9 | 155,476 | 163;577 | 142561 +911
Primary metals :
Shipments. cee 15,303 | 15,371 | 15,506 -0.4 09] +08] 15,827] 15,995 | 16,000
New orders’ |! 15295 | 14646 | 157482 | +44 34] +28] 15311 15308 | 16,282 6.0
Unfilled orders 33,141 | 33,149 | 33;874 0.0 22:1 ~O.1 | 34194 | 34710 | 31664 +8.0
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . 37,214 | 36,871 | 36,091 + 35,973 | 43,589 | 32,264 | HLS
New orders 36,987 | 37/447 | 36.620 423] 433] 35412 | 433367 | 32°781 +80
Unfilled orders 73,531 | 73,758 1 73,624 | 74,185 | 74;224 08
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments ”. . 30,533 | 30,993] 31,026 “15 0.1 28,149 | 33,345. | 26,632 $5.7
New 32.435 | 31,237 | 30,880 38) +12) <LI} 32135] 31484 | 27/053 | +188
Untied orders 58630 | 56,728 | 56,484 | +34] 40:4 59'508 | 55/522 | 52:467 | +13.4
Transportation equipment :
44900 | 45,674 | 44,343 430) + 46,769 | 49,525 | 44,282
45.957 | 42.081 | 42361 | +92. 07) -74| 47922 | 46,945 | 41546 | +153
:| 259/963 | 258906 | 262,499] +04 4] 4 262,111 | 260,958 | 255:468
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 57,701 | 37,855 | 36,494 424] +15 | 54185 | 66,256 | 48,923 | +108
New orders’ | | 58/831 59248 | +71 05) -74 | 55212 | 63:744 | 46.658 | +183
Unfilled orders : 369,935 | 368,805 | 371.713 08] 0.3 | 372/538 | 371;511 | 364,998 4211
Nondefense :
Shipments , 51,078 | 49,936 2] 23) HG) 4z71) 59.934] 42.903 | 112
New orders * | * | 51.173 | 491902 | 49908 | +25 oo} 42 ” 57092 | 41,104 | +161
Unfilled ordeis’ | : 266,551 | 267,727 | +0.1 04 0.0 | 267009 | 267,026 | 253;278 45.4
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . . 42,877 | 43,351 | 42,315 “Ll 39,489 | 50,403 | 35,733 | H1
New orders : :. | 42'192 | 437522 | 433369 31] +04] 42:7 | 381570 | 49;g08 | 35901 +72
Unfilled orders’ 2 5°22.) 103;299 | 103/984 | 103'813 “07 1037540 | 104,459 | 98/291
Defense :
Shipments . 6,743 6777 6,558 os] +33] +407 6,464 7,222 6,020 +74
New orders” | |! 7,658 51045 |. 5340 | +518 53] -292 7/508 6,652 5,554 | +352
Unfilled orders’: 103:167 | 102;254 | 103,986 | +0.9 17] 12 | 1087529 | 104485 | 111:720 “35

(NA) Not available. * Revise.

* Shipments and new orders ate the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for wading-day or calendar-month variations.

? Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to suey error and revision, One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
tespae amd monceporig, Sst uve ye i x apronbiy sample, estima of sampling err cao belated, Fue des ow survey dei, methloy, and daa Itsoe a conned in ar met eens
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Repors: M3-1(96), "Manufactures’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense = ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, intemal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment. metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and olfice equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
complete aircraft. missiles, and space vehicles, aitraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, misiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry ‘Year ago ‘Apr. | Apr. 1997-| _ Year ago ‘Apr. | Apr. 1997-| _ Year ago ‘Apr. | Apr. 1997-
Apr. 1997 | 1993-1997 | Mar. 1998 | Apr. 1997 |_ 1993-1997 |_Mar. 1998| Apr. 1997] 1993-1997 | Mar. 1998
Durable goods... ... _ 92 02 03 04 93 os ou 1 Ou
Primary metals . . : 08 02 05 08 o1 05 03
Industfial machinery and equipment’. . oa 07 05 07 vo 0s 0.0 02 02
Electronic and other
electrical equipment Ol 02 04 21 06 12 14 04 05
Transportation equipment’ | ol 04 07 "7 10 16 02 1 02
Nondefense capital goods : 0.5 04 05 04 08 09 03 0.1 02
Defense capital goo 04 05 09 05 40 45 O14 on 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

205 205
New Orders
SS ae Shipments |-] 195
185 185
175 175
165 165
155 1 L L 1 L 1 1 1 = L 1 L L 155
Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr
Apr. 1996 - Apr. 1998
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

59 59

New Orders
54 | Shipments | ---------------------------------- +54

39 bet n i n n L i r n n n n bl 39

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr
Apr. 1996 - Apr. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars,