U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

Washington, DC 20233

OFFICIAL BUSINESS
Penalty for Private Use $300

FIRST-CLASS MAIL
POSTAGE & FEES PAID
Bureau of the Census

Permit No. G-58

PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1998/1999 MONTHLY "M3" SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

RELEASE DATES

REPORT
COVERING

(8:30 a.m. release time)

ADVANCE REPORT

REGULAR REPORT
(10:00 a.m. release time)

December 1998

Thur., Jan. 28

Thur., Feb 4

January 1999

Thur., Feb. 25

Thur., Mar. 4

February 1999

Wed., Mar. 24

Wed., Mar. 31

March 1999

Wed., Apr. 28

Wed., May 5

April 1999

Wed ., May 26

Thur., June 3

May 1999

Thur, June 24

Fri, July 2

June 1999

Wed., July 28

Wed., Aug. 4

July 1999

Wed., Aug. 25

Thur., Sep. 2

August 1999

Wed., Sept. 29

Wed., Oct. 6

September 1999

Wed., Oct. 27

Wed., Nov. 3

October 1999

Tues., Nov. 23

Fri, Dec. 3

November 1999

Thur, Dec. 23



ECONOMICS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
a BUREAU OF THE
= WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673. January 28, 1999
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB99-20
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852
M3-1(98)-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
December 1998
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $3.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $192.7
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.3 percent November increase and is
the sixth increase in the last seven months and the eighth this year. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.8 percent, the
second consecutive increase. New orders for 1998 are 3.4 percent above 1997.

Industrial machinery and equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $2.5 billion or 6.9 percent to $38.2
billion. This follows a 0.5 percent November increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four months,
increased $1.0 billion or 3.3 percent to $33.0 billion. This follows a 4.2 percent November decrease. Transportation equipment,
down three of the last four months, decreased $0.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $44.4 billion; a decrease in aircraft and parts more than
offset increases in the other categories. This follows a 0.2 percent November increase. Primary metals, down three of the last
four months, decreased $0.3 billion or 2.0 percent to $14.3 billion, following a 9.1 percent November increase.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in December increased $0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $195.6 billion. This follows
a 0.5 percent November increase and is the seventh consecutive monthly increase and the ninth this year. Shipments for 1998 are
5.3 percent above 1997.

Industrial machinery and equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $0.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $37.2
billion. This follows a 0.9 percent November decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up six of the last seven months,
increased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $32.8 billion, following a 1.2 percent November increase. Primary metals, up for the first
month since August, increased 0.1 percent to $14.3 billion, following a 2.1 percent November decrease. Transportation equipment,
down for the first month since July, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $48.1 billion. This follows a 0.6 percent November
increase. Instruments and related products, down two of the last three months, also declined.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in December decreased $2.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $492.2 billion.
This follows a 1.1 percent November decrease and is the seventh decline in the last eight months. Transportation equipment, down
seven of the last eight months, had the largest decrease, $3.6 billion or 1.5 percent to $241.2 billion. This follows a 1.4 percent
November decrease. Primary metals, down nine of the last ten months, decreased 0.1 percent to $29.6 billion. This follows a 0.9
percent November increase. Instruments and related products, down ten of the last eleven months, also decreased. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up for the first month since September, increased $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $74.1 billion, following
a 1.4 percent November decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four months, increased $0.2
billion or 0.3 percent to $59.9 billion. This follows a 1.1 percent November decrease.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in December, up for the first month since September, increased
$0.5 billion or 8.7 percent to $5.9 billion, following a 14.9 percent November decrease. Shipments, down three of the last four
months, decreased 8. billion or 3.2 percent to $6.7 billion, following a 2.2 percent November decrease. Unfilled orders,
down seven of the last eight months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.9 percent to $94.0 billion, following a 1.6 percent November
decrease.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in December, up for the second consecutive month, increased
$0.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $51.2 billion, following a 1.2 percent November increase. Shipments, down for the first month since
August, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $54.0 billion. This follows a 0.7 percent November increase. Unfilled orders,
down for the third consecutive month, decreased $2.8 billion or 1.1 percent to $256.7 billion, following a 1.3 percent November
decrease. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $2.9 billion or 6.7 percent to $46.8 billion, the fourth increase in the
last five months; shipments increased $0.7 billion or 1.6 percent to $45.5 billion, the first increase since September; unfilled orders
increased $1.3 billion or 1.2 percent to $106.5 billion, also the first increase since September.

®@ REVISED NOVEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$341.1 billion (revised from $341.4 billion); new orders, $335.6 billion (revised from $336.6 billion); unfilled orders, $519.2
billion (revised from $520.0 billion); and total inventories, $471.6 billion (revised from $471.7 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published February 4, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled for February 25,
1999 at 8:30 AM. See back page for 1999 Release Dates. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Dec, Nov. Oct, | Nov. | Oct-| Sept Dec, Nov. Dec.
1998? 1998" 1998 | Dec? | Nov’ ct. 1998 1998 1997 | Dec.98/97
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments . 195,553 | 194,752 | 193.818] +04] +05] +05] 197,888] 194,643 | 187,147 5
New orders 192676 | 189/077 | 188523 | +19 | +03]  -22 | 193943 | 186,744 | 185,604 +4'5
Unfilled orders : 492,207 | 495,084 | 500,759 | -0.6 “Ul 210 | 487,676 | 491,621 | 506/334 ~
Excluding defense :
ipments 188,860 | 187,837 | 186,750] +05 | +06] +03] 190,234] 187,500] 180,047 45.7
New orders 2: : 186,796 | 183,670 | 182,170 | +17 | +08] -1.9 | 185529 | 180,782 | 175,807 455
Unfilled orders’ - 398191 | 400,255 | 404;422 | 0:5 “10 } 11 | 393/923 | 398/628 | 408118 25
With unfilled orders
Shipments... 161.555 | 161,606 | 160,371 oo] +06] +07] 167,533 | 161,674 | 158,298 45.8
New orders 1587678 | 155/931 | 155.276 | +18] +04] -26 | 163588 | 153,775 | 156,755 +44
Primary metals :
Shipments . 14,300] 14,290} 14,590 | +0.1 21 24] 13,057] 13,912 | 14,414 94
New orders : 14266 | 14'553 | 13,343 20] +91 sa {131822 | 147129 | 15307 9.7
Unfilled orders |}! 29617 | 29651 | 293388 | 0.1} = +09] 4:1 | (28/832 | 28,067 | 34,338 -16.0
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 37,179 | 36,681] 37.011 | +14 09] +06] 40,449] 34,507 | 38,637 44.7
38156 | 35,677 | 35:03 | +69] +05] 89] 40,892 042 | 37/061 | +103
Daher 74095 | 73,118 | 74122 | +13 14] 20 | 745134] 73,691 | 73,425 +10
ic and other
ipment :
: 32,815 | 32,996 | 32,219 7| +12] 06] 36680] 33,994] 33,869 +8.
32996 | 31:947 | 33348 | 43.3 -42| +15 | 34508] 31/030 | 31,579 493
Unfilled orders 591910 | 39729 | 60/378 ET] 419 | 57/659 | 59831 | 53:306 +8.

Transportation equipmen

Shipments 48,054 48,322 48,017 +0.6 +3.1 46,754 49,742 42,401 +10.3
New orders 44,440 44.939 44/370 1 +02 -0.5 44,202 46,506 3,301 42.1
Unfilled orders .. . . 241,250 244,864 248,247 AS - 13 240,671 243/223 254,517 54

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total

Shipments .... 60,722 61,145 60,938 0.7 +03 +15 70,876 60,067 65,216

‘New orders 57,123 56,141 56,491 +17 0.6 6.8 68,231 55,792 64,845 45.2

Unfilled orde: 350,706 354,305 359,309 1.0 14 2 350,195 352/840 363,432 -

Nondefense :
Shipments $4,029 54,230 53,870 0.4 +07 +08 63,222 52,924 58,116 +88
New orders. 51,243 50,734 50,138 +10 +12 6.4 59,817 49,830 55,048 +8.7
Unfilled orders . 256,690 259476 262/972 “Ld “14 256,442 2597847 261,216 18

Excluding aircraft and parts :

Shipments. 45,475 | 44,757 | 44.985 | +16 0.1 | $2,843 | 43,184 | 48,786
46,786 | 43/845 | 43,030 | 46.7 | +19] 9:7 | 53535 | 42.674] 494g | +117
Dabiied onde 106,465 | 105,154 | 106,066 - =18 | 106217 | 105,525 | 103,172
Defense :
Shipments . . 6,693 6.915 7,068 32 221 47.0 7.654 1.143 ,
New orders | 5,880 5,407 6353] +87] -149] 98 81414 5/962 91797 “14.1
Unfilled orders’: 94016 | 94/829 | 96,337 09 -16|  -0.7 | 93,753 | 92,993 | 102, :

(NA) Not availble. * Revised.

1 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
sespone and oneporing: Sic he survey pals x probaly ample, etimates of sapling er cant te elt Fare dello survey design, metlgy, and data tans ae contin nor mst resent soa

, Current ‘Reports: M3-1(96), "1 and. Orders: 1987-1996."
“econ Gt Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines odie, incl cmbaton egies, insrucin ming an mari ning eqs. meaning mace, pec ny
and refrigeration, heating and service industry i on at , electrical 1 apparatus,

office
ee nen anl apes Gee, acrah musics ad ace wee egies in pene ships aaa comppocna, rll equen snd seach an tgaion ep
‘Defense capital goods inclide': ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment,

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Dec. | Dec. 1997-| Year ago Dec. | Dec. 1997-| Year ago Dec. | Dec. 1997-

Dec. 1997 | 1993-1997 | Nov. 1998 | Dec. 1997| 1993-1997 | Nov. 1998| Dec. 1997] 1993-1997 | Nov. 1998

Durable goods . 02 03 04 06 06 08 02 02 02

Primary metals . : 01 08 05 ol 12 07 00 5 03

Industrial machinery’ and equipment... 02 06 08 07 07 07 06 04 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment .. .. 04 06 08 23 13 24 02 02 08

Transportation equipment 12 07 15 oa 24 16 02 04 02

Nondefense capital goods 03 05 09 os 12 10 02 03 02

Defense capital goods 02 17 08 05 95 66 01 05 04

Note~ The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to
for the months specified,


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

215 215
New Orders

205 F- - - - or tr rr rr rt etree ed Shipments | 205

195 195

185 185

175 175

165 L L 1 1 1 L 1 L 1 1 L L L 165
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

Dec. 1996 - Dec. 1998

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
59 59

New Orders

54 | Shipments | ---------------------------->--5~— 454

49}-----------------34---- ct -- +e ee ee ee eee +49

44fp—~ — =< - - - - ee ee eee eee {44

39 L L L L L i L 1 L L L 1 L 39
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1996 - Dec. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.