UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | stn.
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mee CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth February 26, 1992
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB92-32
M3-1(92)-01

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
January 1992
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $1.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $119.6 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. The January increase follows a 5.1 percent decrease in December
and a 0.6 percent increase in November. Excluding defense, new orders were up $3.8 billion or 3.6 percent.

New orders for industrial machinery and equipment accounted for the largest increase, up $1.2 billion or 6.3 percent to $21.1
billion and is at the highest level since $21.8 billion in January 1991. Transportation equipment was up $0.3 billion or 1.2 percent
to $29.4 billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment declined $0.9 billion or 4.9 percent to $17.4 billion, following four
consecutive monthly increases.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in January increased $1.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $121.0 billion, following a 5.3 percent decline
in December. This is the ninth increase in the last ten months. Excluding transportation equipment, shipments were up $0.5 billion
or 0.5 percent to $90.6 billion. All major groups increased in January except electronic and other electrical equipment, and
instruments and related products. Transportation equipment was up $0.8 billion or 2.6 percent to $30.4 billion, with increases in
all categories except railroad equipment. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.4 billion or 1.9 percent to $20.8 billion,
Primarily duc to computer and office equipment. Electronic and other electrical equipment was down $0.6 billion or 3.4 percent
to $17.2 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in January decreased $1.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $487.9 billion, and is at the lowest level
since $484.6 billion in October 1989. This is the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Excluding defense, unfilled orders decreased
$0.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $343.5 billion. The largest decrease occurred in transportation equipment, down $1.1 billion or 0.4
percent to $2718 billion. Primary metals, down $0.9 billion or 4.4 percent to $19.9 billion, is at the lowest level since $19.8 billion
in May 1991. The largest increase occurred in industrial machinery and equipment, up $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $53.0 billion,
and follows three consecutive monthly declines.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in January increased $2.6 billion or 9.1 percent to $31.5 billion, as large increases
in aircraft and parts, computer and office equipment, and search and navigation equipment more than offset a decrease in
communications equipment. The January increase follows a 17.2 percent decrease in December and a 12.1 percent increase in
November. Shipments were up $0.5 billion or 1.8 percent to $31.7 billion, and have increased five of the last six months. Unfilled
orders were down $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $241.9 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, nondefense new orders increased 4.3
percent, shipments were up 1.0 percent, and unfilled orders increased 0.7 percent.

New orders for defense were down $2.0 billion or 21.0 percent to $7.7 billion. Aircraft and parts accounted for most of
the decrease. The January decline follows an 89.6 percent increase in December and a 38.0 percent decrease in November.
Shipments remained at $8.4 billion, following four consecutive monthly declines. Unfilled orders were down $0.6 billion or 0.4
percent to $144.4 billion, and have declined four of the last five months.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 4, 1992. ‘The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for
March 25, 1992.

This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202
Census Bureav’s online information service-CRNDATA. Purther information ahont arreceing CHNTVATA ran he nhtainad Fern Mint



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
; change
J Dee, Nov.| Dees | Nov..] Oct. Ja Dec, Jan.
19932 i991 1991 | jan? | Beet] Nov. 1992 199i" i991 | Jan.92/91
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 6.0.0... eee eee 121,047} 119,781} 126547] +14 $3] +01] 106804] 118,503] 104,622 +21
sessesse | 119576] 117,776 | 124/046] +15 Si] +06} 108/302] 117/481 | 107,749 +
ar 487/902 | 489/373 | 491,378 03 “04 05 | 488,243 | 486,745 | 507,258
Excluding defense

Shipments . 112,695 | 111,390] 117,738 | $1.2 54} +02] 100,120] 107,843] 97,974 +22
New orders 111854 | 108/006 | 118893 | +36 2] +434] 101,774] 104,616 | 101,333, +04
Unfilled orders 343535 | 344,376 | 347,760 02 10} +03) 342/835] 34181} 354,714 33

With unfilled orders
Shipments . 102,1 101,026 | 106,311} +11 50] +05 89,736 | 102,837 | 89,166 +06
New orders 100,638 | 99021 | 103/810 | +16 46} +10] 91/234] 101/815 | 92/293 1

Pri etal :

Shipments 10,646 10,413 10,717] +22 28 03 10,140 9,394 10,617 4S
New orders. 729 872 10,714 “14 79) +21 97653 9648 91944 29
Unfilled orders 19878 795 | 21,3: “44 25 0.0 19/878 | 20,365 21,686 83

Industrial machinery and equipment :

‘Shipments 20,794 | 20413 | 21,237 17,462 | 22,592 | 17,830
lew orders || 21074 | 199830 | 20491 | +03 1gi604 | 21616] 19/242
Unfilled orders 52/960 2,680 | $3,263, 53433 | 2/201 | 58/337
Electronic and other
“Sipmencemen 17152} 17,755 | 17,876 34 07 15,223 | 18,344] 14,758 +32
New orders 17367 | 18266 | 17,642 49| +35 15/826 | 181678 | 14.65: +80
Unfilled orders 47a91| 47276 | 46,765] +05] +11 47153 | 46,950} 48,537 29
Transportation equipment : 30437} 29656] 33573] +26] -17] 33] 26859| 28918] 25,107 +70
New orders - 1111! 9,350} 29014} 33,618 | 412] 137] +30] 25970 ‘ 27,459 “34
Uniilled orders’ || 2783 : IBS “Oa 02 0.0} 272149 | 273038 | 279'860 28
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES
Total pments r 3953s | 42374} 413 +05] 32957] 46,459 | 33,049 03
New orders 1 39,257 62 | 40/029 +15 +16] 3346: 45,921 | 35,694 “62
Unfilled orders | 252 | 387039 | 387912] "02 -0.6 | 387/611 | © 387,101 | 405;265, 44
Noadefense : 31,692 31,144 33,565 +18 +07 26,273 . 26,401 0.5
31/535 | 28/892 | 34876] +9:1 +121| 26939] 33/056 | 29/278 80
¥ 242042 | 244,294 “0.1 +05 | 242\203| 241/537] 252/721 42
Excluding aircraft and parts : 25,899| 25,653] 26,675] +1.0 38 7| 21,754] 28,830 | 21,834 04
Reeders: iii] 26439] 253342] 25626 | +4'3 1} $01} 231 28,028 | 23/003, +05
Unillled orders iti] 80139] 79599] 79910 | $07 oa) 80/457 | 79,094 9.1
Defense : 8,352 8,391 8,809 0.5 AT 04 6,684 10,660 6,648 +05
Shipments -. .. canal 71722 9°70 5153] -210| +896] 38.0 6528 | 12'865 6416 417
Now orders, corer [1443367] 144,997] 143,618 04] +10] 25] 145,408] 145,564] 152544 47

(NA) Not available. ” Revised. P Preliminary

| shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted
for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample.

3 The Capital Goods industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion ‘engines, construction mining and material handling equipment,
metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and
distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and
tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

j Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

industry ‘Year ago Tan. ] Jan. 1991-| Year ago Jan] Jan. 1991-| Year ago Jan. | Jan, 1997-

Jan. 1991 | 1987-1991 | Dec. 1991 | Jan. 1991| 1987-1991 Dec. 1991] Jan. 1991] 1987-1991 | Dec. 1991

Durable goods ~ 06 06 02 Tl 09 06 0.0 02 OL

Primary metals... . 01 04 0.4 4, 1 1.2 21 0.7 Os

Industrial machinery and 03 16 4 01 26 08 02 06 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 09 0s 04 31 13 14 01 02 04

Transportation equipm 07 10 05 a2 13 10 0.0 02 01

Nondefense capital goods 03 13 0s 09 14 19 0.0 03 02

Defense capital goods . . 03 07 05 it 28 20 0.0 02 ol

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-lo-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without



Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

150 150
New Orders

140 Shipments -+ 140

130 130

120 120

110 - - 4 110

400 LL 1 L Hl | L ! L H ! L 1 LJ 400
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

Jan. 1990 -Jan. 1992

NonDefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45

New Orders

40 b - Shipments..|1 49

25 1 1 L 1 ! 1 1 i 1 1 1 4 25
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

Jan. 1990 - Jan. 1992