UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | 2st.
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth March 25, 1992
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB92-103
M3-1(92)-02

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 1992
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $120.5 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. The February decrease follows a 2.4 percent increase in January
and a 5.0 percent decrease in December. Excluding defense, new orders were up $1.4 billion or 1.3 percent.

Electronic and other electrical equipment declined $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $17.0 billion. Industrial machinery and
equipment was down $0.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $20.7 billion. Instruments and related products and fabricated metal products
also had large decreases. The largest increase occurred in primary metals, up $0.8 billion or 7.9 percent to $10.9 billion.
Transportation equipment was up $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $29.9 billion, as increases in motor vehicle and parts and railroad
and other equipment more than offset decreases in aircraft and parts and shipbuilding and tanks.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in February increased $3.5 billion or 2.9 percent to $125.2 billion, following a 1.5 percent
increase in January. This is the tenth increase in the last eleven months. Excluding transportation equipment, shipments were up
$0.9 billion or 1.0 percent to $91.8 billion. Transportation equipment, led by motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts, was
up $2.6 billion or 8.5 percent to $33.4 billion, with increases in all categories. Lumber and wood products, fabricated metal
products, electronic and other electrical equipment, and primary metals also had large increases.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in February decreased $4.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $483.6 billion, and is at the lowest
level since $483.2 billion in September 1989. This is the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Excluding defense, unfilled orders
decreased $2.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $341.9 billion. Transportation equipment was down $3.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $268.1
billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts, and is at the lowest level since $266.9 billion in March 1990. Instruments and related
products and electronic and other electrical equipment also had large declines.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in February declined $0.7 billion or 2.4 percent to $30.9 billion, with large
decreases in electrical transmission and. distribution equipment and industrial apparatus. The February decrease follows a 9.5
percent increase in January and a 17.1 percent decrease in December. Shipments, led by aircraft and parts, were up $0.7 billion
or 2.3 percent to $32.7 billion, and have increased six of the last seven months. Unfilled orders, down $1.8 billion or 0.7 percent
to $240.0 billion, is at the lowest level since $239.1 billion in August 1990. Excluding aircraft and parts, nondefense new orders
decreased 2.4 percent, shipments were down 0.4 percent, and unfilled orders declined 0.2 percent.

New orders for defense were down $1.5 billion or 19.4 percent to $6.3 billion. Aircraft and parts and search and navigation
equipment accounted for most of the decrease. The February decline follows a 20.0 percent decrease in January and a 89.4 percent
increase in December. Shipments increased $0.6 billion or'7.3 percent to $9.0 billion, with increases in all categories. Unfilled
orders, down $2.7 billion or 1.9 percent to $141.7 billion, has declined five of the last six months and is at the lowest level since
$140.1 billion in November 1984.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS)

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates
plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published April 2, 1992. ‘The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for April 23, 1992. This
report is ilable on the day of issue through the s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-377-3870) and through the Census

nntinn am EIRTIN ATO A one eT ams



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Feb, Jan, Dec] Jans | Deez} Nov.- Fe Jan Feb.
9922 1992 109i | Feb2] Jan | Dee. 15582 i992 1991 | Feb.92/91
DURABLE GOODS
Totals, 125,186 | 121,648 | 119,795 29] +15 123,745 | 106887] 116914] +58
ipments . . . . + ; 5. . :
New orders | 120/496 | 120/592 | 117; 1) +24 120'329 | 108859] 119158] — +1.0
483622 | 4887312 | 4893308 | 1.0] -0.2 4857301 | 488,717 | 5091502 47
116,190 | 113,261] 111407] +26] +17| 34] 115,336] 100,229 | 108.040) 9 +59
314'205 | 112789} 108027] +13] +44] "D:1] 114484] 102,269 110958] +32
341923 | 343908] 344380] 016 | 0.1] 1.0 | 342,369 | 343,221 | 356,732 40
With unfilled orde:
Shipments. 104,72 | 102510| to103s| +22] +15) so} 10agi9] 9,762 | 9940s] +35
New orders || 100/082 | 1017454 | 99/038] Ta] +23) 46 | 991503] 91,734 | 101,649 21
Primary metals
Shipments 10870 | 10687| 10412] +17] +26] 28] 10869] 10143] 1978] +13
New orders 1 10/885 | 10,086 9809] +79| 422| %9} iiss] 10013] 10347) +78
Unfilled orders’ | | 202207| 201192] 20,793} +01 25{ 25) 20/499 | 20,235 | 21,305 38
Industrial machinery and equipment :
Shipments unery and cavipment 20,84 20,002 | 20,410 o3| +24] 39] 20167] 17,544} 20,308 07
New orders... 20716 | 21,013 9 aa} +59] 32] 201022] 18/443] 19278 | +39
Unfilled orders’. | 521679 | 52/806 | 52,695} 02] +02) «TT ] 5304S} 53,190) 57307 74
Electronic and other
cagaerical eavipment : 17293] 17092] 17,766] +12 38 06| 17007] 15213] 16,459 433
New orders. |... 03s | 17358} = eer} 19 30) +36] 17364] 15/908 | — 18466 60
Unfilled orders’ | | 47288 | 47/5460] 47280) 05 +06) +11] 4702} 47245 | 50,544 38
‘Trapsportation equipment : 33,402} 30,785 29658} +85] +38] -117 33,754 26,763 29,488] +145
New orders. 29861 | 29'574| 20018 | +10] +19) 137] 307200} 251897 | _ 301850 21
Unfilled orders’ 111. 28120 | 271%601| 27282] 13] 04) 02] 268618} 272172 | 281,222 45
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES
Totals 41658} 40311} 39,536] +33] +20 6.7| 39,821 33,085 | 38,978 +22
37199 | 391455 | 38166 57} +20 34] 35;544| 33;546] 401796 | 129
381,728 187 | 387043 | 12] 0.2] 02] 3837285 | 387562 | 407/083 58
einer 32,662] 31,924 | 34s} +23] 425 31412] 26427| 31008] +13
Neporders 21 5 31,65. 24} +95 29699 | 261956 | 321596 83
New orders a: 240,029 | 241/783} 242055} 0.7) 0.1 240,353 | 242/066 | 254313 35
26,099 | 25,656 +17 25,026} 21,924] -24,757| 41
26506 | 25,358 +45 24939 | 33,132] 24707 +09
807019 | 79,612 +03, 80;215 | 80/302 | 88}485 93
8,387 3388] +73 oo} 48 8,409 6,658 7974] 458
7803 9758 | 194] 200) +894 5/845 6,590 8200 | 287
saa'god | 144/988 | 7-19] 04] “F110 | 142/932] 145/496 | 152/770

(NA) Not available. " Revised. P Preliminary.

Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the perlod and ave not adjusted
for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample.

3 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment,
metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and
distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and
lank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago Feb. | Feb, 1991-| Year ago Feb.] Feb. 1991-| Year ago Feb, ] Feb. 1991-
Feb. 1991 | 1987-1991 | Jan. 1992| Feb. 1991 | 1987-1991 | Jan. 1992| Feb. 1991] 1987-1991] Jan. 1992
Durable goods - 0.0 06 Ol 04 OT 05 04 On OL
Primary metals... 1. u 0.0 02 04 05 1 08 03 04 03
Industrial machinery and equipment | | 11 1 05 24 19 09 05 04 03

Electronic and other

electrical equipment .. 06 03 03 13 10 1 02 02 04
Transportation equipment 02 05 04 01 07 1.0 0.0 o4 01
Nondefense capital goods 04 09 os 15 16 18 01 02 02
Defense capital goods . 02 06 05 08 06 21 01 o1 01



Billions of Dollars

Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

150 150
New Orders
140 i 140
130 130
120 120
110 F - 4 110
100 1 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 100
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1990- Feb. 1992
NonDefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45

New Orders

40 | Shipments... 40

25 tt

1 L 1 1 Ll L Ll L

Feb

Apr

Jun

Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug = Oct
Feb. 1990- Feb, 1992

1 it 95
Dec Feb