ECONOMICS
D STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

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= =a U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
s J WASHINGTON, DC 20230

U.S. Census Bureau For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 763-4673 December 24, 2002

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832 CB-02-169
M3-1(02)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
November 2002

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars and exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $2.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $169.6 billion, the
Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.7 percent October increase. Excluding
transportation, new orders decreased 1.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.3 percent. Year to date, new orders for
2002 were 0.2 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $0.8 billion or 1.6 percent to $49.4 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts, which
decreased by $1.7 billion. Machinery decreased $0.7 billion or 3.2 percent to $21.9 billion. Primary metals decreased $0.5 billion or
4.6 percent to $10.7 billion, which was the largest decrease since October 2000.

© SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in November decreased $2.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $174.2 billion. This followed a
1.4 percent October increase. Year to date, shipments for 2002 were 0.6 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.9 billion or 3.5 percent to $51.8 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts, which
decreased by $2.0 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in November, down three consecutive months, decreased $4.5 billion or 0.9
percent to $476.8 billion and were at the lowest level since September 1996. This followed a 0.9 percent October decrease.

Transportation equipment, at the lowest level since May 2000, had the largest decrease, $2.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $246.0 billion, led
by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $1.7 billion.

@ INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in November, down twenty-two consecutive months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2
percent to $262.6 billion and were at the lowest level since November 1995. This followed a 0.2 percent October decrease.

Transportation equipment, at the lowest level since December 1997, had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $70.2
billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in November increased $1.2 billion or 28.6 percent to $5.5 billion.
Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 6.2 percent to $7.0 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $122.4 billion.
Inventories increased 0.3 percent to $18.5 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in November decreased $1.8 billion or 3.2 percent to $53.6
billion. Shipments decreased $0.8 billion or 1.3 percent to $56.5 billion. Unfilled orders, down twenty-one of the last twenty-two
months, decreased $2.9 billion or 1.4 percent to $207.1 billion, the lowest level since January 1996. Inventories, down twenty-two
consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $111.7 billion, the lowest level since December 1995.

@ REVISED OCTOBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders,

$321.9 billion (revised from $322.6 billion); shipments, $326.3 billion (revised from $325.7 billion); unfilled orders, $481.3 billion
(revised from $482.6 billion); and total inventories, $429.3 billion (revised from $429.4 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published January 7, 2003 at 10:00 A.M EST. The advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled for January
28 at 8:30 A.M EST.


fable 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders
ions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Nov Oct Sep Oct - Sep Aug Nov | ct Nov Nov
20027 2002" 2002 Nov Oct" Sep 20027 2002" 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:*
Shipments. sense 174,160] 176,393) 174,008! 1.3 1.4 -0.9] 171,001] 182,049] 168,174] 17
New Orders... 169,624] 171/963) 169,060] “14 17 -46| 165,777 176,039] 161,321 28
Excluding transportation:*
Shipments, seen 122,334 122,714) 121,537] -0.3 1.0 1.1] 119,303] 124.631] 116,459 24
New Orders... oo 120,187) 121,732) 119,755] 13 17 oo] 117,097] 122/987] 114/919} 3
Exclyging defense:*
Shipments. 165,792] 168,622] 165,972] 17 1.6 1.1] 162,241] 174,441] 160,898 08
New Orders 162,674] 166,436] 160,222] 23 3.9) “5.2) 158,699] 171/148) 155,154] 23
Manufacturing with unfilled orders:*
‘Shipment 121,852) 122,914] 122,234] og 06 0.1] 119,701] 124.956] 118,628 09
New Orders. 117,316] 118,480) 117/286 1.0 1.0 5.3) 114.477] 118,946] 111,776] 24
Primary metals:
Shipments. 11,208 11,379 11,345 15) 0.3) 0.4] 10,674 11,987 10,526 1.4
New Orders. 10,695 11,208 11/343 “4.5 12 -0.6 9,985 11/463 10,133} 15
Fabricated metal products:
Shipments. 21,044] 21,275 21,325 41 0.2 -0.2 20,474] 22,470] 20,520) -0.2
New Orders. co 20,813} 21,189} 21,086} “18 05 14 19,984] 21,884] 19,661 16
Machiner
Shipments. 22,712 22,822] 22,783} 0.8 0.2] “1.2 21.450 22,692 21,026} 2.0
New O1ders..cccscsncenenn 21/855 22/580} 21.988} “3.2 27 01 20,647} 22/483 20,930} V4
Computers and electronic products:*
Shipments... eens 26,410} 26,552| 26,093} -0.5 1.8 “15 26,385} 25,236 26,125 1.0
New Orders.o cscs 25,805 25,716] 24/856) 0:3] 35 V7 26,124] 24/330] 25.584] 24
Computers and related products:
Shipments. 7,054 7,286 6.746 3.2 8.0) “15 6,643 6.850] 6,216 72.0
New Orders. 7,047] 7319] 7384] 37 09 9.2 7,033 6,903 6.596 66
Communications equipment:
Shipments. cose 5.541 5,167 5,364 7.2 3.7 1.8 5,670] 4,540] 5,843 “3.0
New Orders : 5.378| 5,305 31135 14 69.2 -38.2 5,767 4,708 5.603 29
Semiconductors:
'ShIpMENS.o-.-..- (NA) (Nal] (Na) (NA) {Nal} (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (Na)
New Orders. (NA) (NA) (NaI (NA) (NA) (NA) (Na) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
‘and components:
Shipments .-..e0.- - 9,078 9.014 8,896 0.7 13 0.5 8,927 8,888 8,790 1.6
New Order 8,902 8.952 9,122 0.6 13 25 8,732 8,974] Pare) 4.2
Transportation equipment:
Ct 51.826] 53.679} 52,471 3.5 23 0.4 51,698 97,418 51,715] 0.0
New Orders..... 49,437] 50,237 49,305} 16 13 143 48,680 53,052] 46,402 49
Motor vehicles and part
‘Shipments... 37,263} 39,292} 37,957| 5.2 3.5 2.2 36,589} 43,923} 36,222 1.0
New Orders... 37:372| 39,121 37,717] “45 37 “118 36,861 43/504] 36,266 16
Nondetense aircraft and parts:
‘Shipments. sen 5,950] 6,331 6,305 6.0 0.4 11.9 6.118 5,556 8,087 24.3
New Orders... 4,285 41642 4721 77 17 47.6 31935] 3/461 3,808 3:3
Defense aircraft and parts:
‘Shipments. 3.217 2,914] 3,129 10.4 6. 5.6 3,509 2,797 2,764 27.0
New Orders. 2,848 2/625 2.855 85 “81 81 2.738 11746 2/212 23.8
Alll other durable goods:
‘Shipments. 31,881 31,672 31,095 0.7 19 1.8 31.393} 33,358] 29,472 65
New Orders 32,117 32/086| 31/360] 0.1 23 01 311625] 33,793} 29,500} 72
Capital goods:”
Shipments... se 63.534] 83,888] 63,089 0.6 13 0.3 62,101 61,917] 61,124] 16
New Orders.nnnncnnn 59,121 59,692| 60,452 1.9 13 88 58,286 58,231 57.476] 14
Nondefense capital goods:
NIPMENS .onenneee ses 56,512 57.277 56,393 13 1.6 0.8 54,710} 55,498] 54,833 0.2
New Orders...ccscnnennn 53,632 55,424] 52,901 3.2 43 10.7 52,383 54,083 51/891 09
Excluding aircraft
Shipments. 53,733 54,110} 53,197 -0.7 1.8 2.0) 51,853} 52,919} 50,261 32
New Orders, 52,540] 53,728 50,752 2.2 5.9 4:3) 51,213} 52,975] 50,427 16
Defense capital goods
Shipm se 7,022 6.611 6,696 6.2 13 33 7,391 6.419 6,291 175
New Orders... 5,489 4,268] 7/551 28.6 43.5 72 5,803 4.148 5,585 57

NA Not Available “Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted
for wading-day or calendar-month variations,

* Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes
errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology,

and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industial Reports: M3-1(01), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001.”

® The Capital Goods industries include Nondefense : smail

ms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery: mining, oll, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery: vending. laundry,
1G Machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment: pumps and compressors; material handling equipment: all other machinery;
ymputer storage devices: other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments;
electical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty tucks; averaft; falfoad roling stock; ships and bests, office end msttubonal funiture, end medical equipment and
supplies

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; mis

5. Space vehicles. and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

* Aggregate estimates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the
Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

* Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor
shipments, orders, or inventories.


Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonal Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Monthly Percent
tem Change
Nov Oct Sep Nov | Oct Nov Nov
2002 2002" 2002 20027 2002 ' 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total
Untilled Orders. 476,731] 481,327] 485,751 09 0.9 1.0} 468,127] 473,351] 502,285 6.8
Total inventories. 262,624] 263,091} 263.516 02 0.2 0.2) 264,626] 265.080] 281,301 5.9
Excluding transportation:
Unfilled Orders. 230,750] 232,897] 233,879 0.9 0.4 0.8] 227.136] 229,342] 249,430] 8.9
Total Inventories. 192,446] 192,191] 192/541 O14 0.2] 0.2] 193,016] 192,514] 205,688 62
Excluding defense:*
Untilled Orders 333,662] 336,780] 338,966 0.3 0.6 1.7} 329,111) 332,653} 364,430} 9.7
Total Inventories. 240,700] 241,140] 241,454 0.2| Or 0.3) 242.472] 242,888] 259.416 6.5
Manufacturing with unfilled orders:*
Cnfilioy Orders 476,791] 481,327] 485,751 0.9 0. 1.0] 468.127] 473,351] 502,285 6.8
Total Inventories 213,486] 213/831] 213,925 0.2 0. 0.5| 215,281 215595] 230,891 6.8
Primary metals:
Unfilled Ord 15,260] 15,774] 15,944 3.3 1 0.0] 14,296] 14,985] 15,854] 9.8
Total Inventor 18,616] 18,472] 18,407 08 0. 0.1] 18,797] 18,592] 19,458} 34
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders. 38,372] 38,603 38,689 0.6 0.2 0.6] 37.644] 38,134] 40,386 6.8
Total Inventories, 30,855] 30,860] 30,839 0.9 O14 0.3] 30,555] 30,649] 32,004 45
Machinery:
Unfilled Orders. 45,002} 45,859] 46,101 “18 0. 1.7) 44,685] 45,488) 54, 108] 17.4
Total Inventories. 44,350] 44.457] 44.631 0.2 0. 0.3] 44,763] 44655] 48,025 68
Computers and electronic products:*
Unfilled Orders... ane 107,590] 108,195} 109,031 0.6 0.8 aa} 106,114) 106,375] 113,517 6.5
Total Inventories...... 42,732) 42/505] 42.511 05 0.9 0.7] 43,165] 42/680] 48,981 118
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders 6.845 6,852 6.813 O4 0s 10.3 7,051 6.667 7,244 27
Total Inventories, 7,070 7.064 7/303 0.1 3.3 6.6 7/327 7.016 8,021 8.7
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 39,088] 39,251] 39,113 0.4 38,547] 38,450] 42,245 -B8
Total Inventories. 91214 9,091 8.172 og 9,363 gig} 13,024) «28.1
Semiconductors:>
Unfilled Orders. (NA) (NA) (al (wa) (wal (NA) (NA)
Total Inventories. (NA (NA) (a) (NA) (Na) (Na) (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders... 14,517] 14,693) 14,755 0.4 14,337] 14,532] 15,224 58
Total Inventories. 12:517] 12/577] 12,749 13 12,465] 12,555] 13,668 88
Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Orders 246,041] 248,430} 251,872] 1.9) 14 1.2| 240,991] 244,009] 252,855] 47
Total Inventories. 70.178 70,900] "70,975 1.9] 0.1 0.3] 71,610] 72.566] 75,613] 5.3
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders 12,298] 12,189] 12,360] 0.9 14 1.9} 11,793] 11,527] 11,800} 0.0
Total Inventories. 20,516] 20,674] 20,722 0.8 0.2 2.0) 20,725] 21,021] 20,445 14
Nondefense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 111,032) 112,687] 114,386 15] 1.5 1.4] 109,808} 111,991] 124,526 11.8
Total Inventories... 28,344] 28,741] 28,721 1a o1 25] 29.331) 29,771] 33,673 12.9
Defense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 57,0721 57.441] 57,730] 0.6 05 0.5] $4,833] 95,603] 51,114 73
Total Inventor 10,668] 10.811] 10,915] 1.3 1.0 oa] 10.867] 10880] 10,183 67
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 10,009] 9,773 9,359 24 44 28] 10,080 9,828 10,341 27
Total Inventories. 43/376] 43,320] 43,404 O14 0.2 03] 43.271) 43,383] 43,552 06
Capital foods
infilled Orders. 329,436} 333,849] 338,045 1.3 1.2 -0.8] 325,801] 329,616] 355,343 8.3
Total Inventories. 130,203] 130,512] 131,496 -0.2 07 0.8] 132/183] 131/890] 146,431 9.7
Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders 207,071] 209,981] 211.804 14 0.9 1.6] 206,195] 208,522} 233,355] 11.6
Total Inventories. 311/707] 112,063) 112/967 0.3 08 0.9] 113,668] 113,380] 127/508 8
Excluding aircraft
Unfilled Orders. 124,768] 125,981] 126,343] 0.9 0.3 1.9] 123,892] 124,532} 138,798] 10.7
Total Inventories. 89/811] 89/952] 80,643 0.2 0.8 05] 80803] 90,301] 100,415 8.6
Defense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 122,365| 123,898] 126,241 1.2 19) 0.7] 119,606] 121,094] 121,988) 2.0
Total Inventories 18,496] 18,449] 18,529 03 0.4 0.2] 18.515] 18,510] 18,923] 22

‘See footnotes at end of Table 1