ECONOMICS
D STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE

WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 10:00 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 October 27, 2000
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-00-186
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(00)-09

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
September 2000

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $3.8 billion or 1.8 percent to
$221.0 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 3.5 percent August
increase and is the fourth increase in the last five months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent.
Year-to-date, new orders are 8.9 percent above the same period a year ago; new orders for the third quarter are 3.2 percent
below the second quarter.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $4.8 billion or 11.8 percent to $45.3 billion, due to
electronic components and communication equipment. Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, increased
$2.5 billion or 5.1 percent to $51.9 billion; led by aircraft and parts, all components increased. Primary metals increased
$0.5 billion or 3.4 percent to $16.0 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first time since May,
decreased $3.3 billion or 7.1 percent to $42.9 billion. This is the largest decrease since October 1998.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in September increased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $214.4 billion, following
a 0.9 percent August increase. This is the fourth increase in the last five months. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.4 percent
above the same period a year ago; shipments for the third quarter are 0.2 percent below the second quarter.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 1.9 percent to $48.6 billion, led by motor vehicles and
parts. This is the fourth increase in the last five months. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up six of the last seven
months, increased $0.8 billion or 1.8 percent to $42.0 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, down four of the last
five months, decreased $0.7 billion or 1.6 percent to $42.9 billion. Primary metals, down three consecutive months,
decreased 0.3 percent to $15.8 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in September increased $6.6 billion or 1.2 percent to $563.7
billion, following a 0.6 percent August increase. This is the thirteenth increase in the last fifteen months. Transportation

equipment had the largest increase, $3.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $247.5 billion, due to aircraft and parts. Electronic and

other electrical equipment increased $3.2 billion or 3.2 percent to $104.1 billion. Primary metals increased $0.2 billion or
0.7 percent to $30.8 billion. This is the first increase since October 1999. Industrial machinery and equipment increased

slightly to $92.8 billion. This is the fifteenth consecutive increase.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in September decreased $0.4 billion or 5.6 percent to $6.9
billion. Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $6.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent
to $109.5 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in September increased $1.7 billion or 2.6 percent to
$67.3 billion. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $62.6 billion. Unfilled orders increased $4.7 billion or 1.7
percent to $281.0 billion. This is the ninth increase in the last ten months. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders, down
three consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $55.0 billion; shipments, up six of the last seven months,
increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $54.0 billion; and unfilled orders, up thirteen consecutive months, increased $0.9
billion or 0.7 percent to $130.9 billion.

@ REVISED AUGUST DATA Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$381.0 billion (revised from $381.4 billion); new orders, $383.9 billion (revised from $382.5 billion); unfilled orders,
$582.5 billion (revised from $580.7 billion); and total inventories, $487.8 billion (revised from $487.6 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published November 3, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled for November 28,
2000 at 83M AM Thie renart is available on the dav of issue through STAT-USA/Internet at www.stat-usa.2ov.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
{Millions of Dollars)

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Sep. Aug. Jul. Aug. - Jul. - Jun. - Sep. Aug. Sep. Sep.
2000? 2000‘ 2000 Sep.” Aug. * Jul. 2000 * 2000‘ 1999 00/99
DURABLE GOODS
Total
214,395] 214,070} 212,142) +0.2 +0.9 -2.5| 232,808] 210,548] 219,306] +6.2
New Orders. 220,967] 217,155 ; +18 +35 -13.2| 232/939] 211,783) 216,720] +7.5
Unfilled Orders 563,704] 557,132} 554,047) +1.2| +0.6 -0.4) 558/562] 558,431] 495/949] +126
Excluding defens
Shipments. 208,036] 207,817} 205,591 +0.1 +14 -2.4) 226,092] 204,612] 212,455| +6.4]
New Orders. 214,076] 209,852} 203,791 +2.0 +3.0 -7.8] 226,570] 206,221) 211,.647|  +7.1
Unfilled Orders 454,164] 448,124] 446,089 +13 +0.5 -0.4] 450,800] 450,322) 406,569] +10.9
With unfilled orders:
Shipments 180,005] 177,514] 0.3 +14] -1.8] 196,083] 176,358] 181,172] +8.2
New Orders. 183,090] 175,249 +16 +45 14.4] 196,214] 177,593] 178,586] +9.9
Primary metals:
Shipments 15,815] 15,855] 15,917 -0.3 0.4 -1.1] 16,330] 15,905] 15,852] +3.0
New Orders. 16,028] 15,507] 15,597 +3.4] -0.6 -2.5| 15,895] 15,258] 15,242] +4.3
Unfilled Orders. 30,835 97 +0.7 11 -1.0] 29,963] 30,398] 31,194 “3.9
Industrial machinery and equipmer
Shipments 42,870] 43,564] 44,185 “1.6 1.4 46,952| 40,649] 41,716] +12.6
New Orders. 42,904] 46,202] 45,820 7A +0.8 +5.1] 46551] 43/642] 43,040] +8.2
Unfilled Orders 92,767] 92,733} 90,095) 0.0 +29 91,987] 92,388] 80,213] +14.7
Electronic and other
electrical equipment:
Shipments 42,022| 41,271 +18 +12 -1.3] 48,134] 39,650] 40,421] +19.1
New Orders. 45,263] 40,478] 38,150) -+11:8] +6.1 18.9] 47,767 " , + 16.9}
Unfilled Orders. 104/123] 100,882] 101.675 43.2 0.8 -2.5| 101,319] 101,686] 74,178] +36.6
Transportation equipment:
‘Shipments 48,560] 47,650] 46,651 +19] +21 -10.7] 51,805] 47,457] 51,593] +0.4
New Orders. 51,9271 49,423] 46,161 +51 47.1 -32.6| 54,287| 48,644] 49,046] +10.7
Unfilled Orders. 247,547| 244,180] 242,407 +14 +07 -0.2| 247,253] 244,771] 224,857] +10.0
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES °
Total:
Shipments 68,928] 69,026] 67,324 0.1 42.5 2.4) 77,329] 64,615] 68,718] +12.5
New Orders. ‘ , 68,369 +18 +66 25.4] 80,986] 67,309] 67,945] +19.2
Unfilled Orders 390,590] 385,357] 381,525 +14 +10 +0.3} 387,932] 384,275] 340,550) +13.9
Nondefense:
Shipments. 62,569] 62,773] 60,773] 0.3 +3.3 -1.9] 70,613] 58,679] 61,867) +14.1
New Orders. " : 62,283 +2.6| 45.3 +12.2 617 , , +18.7
Unfilled Orders. 281,050] 276,349] 273/567 +17 +10 +0.6] 280,170] 276,166] 251,170) +11.5
Excluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments. 53,909] 53,971 +0.2 -0.1 0.8] 61,280] 50,154] 53,933] +13.6
New Order: 55,369] 55,506 0.8 -0.2 -3.7) 61,516] 51,900] 55,377] +11.1
Unfilled Orders. 130,006} 128,546 +07 +04 -2| 130,059] 129,823] 110,689] +17.5
Defense:
6,359 6,253 6,551 45 71 6,716 5,936 6,851 -2.0
891 7,30: 6,086 5.6]  +20.0 -70:6 6,369| 5,562 5,073| +25.5
109,540] 109,008] 107,958 +1.0 -0.4| 107,762| 108,109] 89,380] +20.6

(NA) Not Available ' Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for tt
not adjusted for trading-day or calender-month

? Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufactur
nonsampling error, which includes errors of cover
Further details on survey design, methodology,
"Manufacturers’ Shipments, invent

al Goods Indust 1@ and accessories, steam ef
metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general i
nsmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial
engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad e
‘apital Goods include : ordnance, communication equipment,

\djusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are

shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is
* Since ths survey. Perel is nota propebity sample, evtimates of eamping error canfot be calculated.
re contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(97),

ines and turbines, internal combustion
computer and office eqi

construction mining
n, heating and servic

8, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, s

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on Seasonally Adjusted Data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago ‘Sep.[Sep. 1999-| Year ago ‘Sep.|Sep. 1999-| Year ago| Sep.|Sep. 1999-
Sep. 1999]1995-1999] Aug. 2000] Sep. 1999|1995-1999| Aug. 2000] Sep. 1999|1995-1999] Aug. 2000}
0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 08 0.4 0.4 0.3
0.1 05 0.3 05) 15 0.9 0.2 0.3 03
ry 05 0.6 0.9 0:3 07 110 0.0 0.2 0.4

Electronic and other

electrical equipment... 0.4 0.7 0.5 Cl Ww 23 0.1 0.4 0.8
Transportation equipment O14 0.3 0.9 1.0 12 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Nondefense capital good 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.2
Defense capital goods. 17 1.4 1.6 73 27 95 0.4 0.3 0.5

Note: The revisions are the differences betwe

Wn the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages

ich and navigation equipment.



Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
230 230
New Orders
220 F| Shipments
210 --------------------------
200P--------------2%4%-----------------------4
190 P-4=~=* - - ---------------------------------4 190
180 i i 1 1 L 1 1 L L 1 rl 1 L 180
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1998 - Sep. 2000
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
67 67
New Orders
62} | Shipments | --------------------------- ------| 62
457
wee 22 2 OTe ee ee - -- -- -- -- -- eee 452
47 L L 1 1 1 i i L 1 1 1 il L 47
Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1998 - Sep. 2000
Note: All Charts based on seasonally

adjusted current dollars.