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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1993 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report

Regular Report

Report Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1992 Fri., Jan. 29 Thurs., Feb. 4
January 1993 Wed., Feb. 24 Thurs., Mar. 4
February 1993 Wed., Mar. 24 Wed., Mar. 31
March 1993 Fri., Apr. 23 Fri., Apr. 30
April 1993 Wed., May 26 Fri., June 4
May 1993 Wed., June 23 Wed., June 30
June 1993 Wed., July 28 Thurs., Aug. 5
July 1993 Wed., Aug. 25 Thur., Sept. 2
August 1993 Fri., Sept. 24 Fri., Oct. 1
September 1993 Wed., Oct. 27 Thur., Nov. 4 _
October 1993 Wed., Nov. 24 Fri., Dec. 3
November 1993 Thur., Dec. 23

The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders press
release can be faxed to you on the day of issue at a cost of $120
per year. The fee is to cover the subscription service, wire
transmission, and administrative costs. If you wish to subscribe
to this service, or would like more information, please call
Sandy Sollinger at (301) 763-2604. -



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | ost.
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 ON CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth January 29, 1993
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB93-22
M3-1(92)-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
December 1992
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $11.2 billion or 9.1 percent to $134.5 billion, the
largest increase since July 1991, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.6
percent decrease in November and a 4.6 percent increase in October. Excluding defense, new orders were up $10.2 billion
or 8.8 percent. New orders without transportation equipment increased $5.1 billion or 5.5 percent.

All major groups except furniture and fixtures had increases. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up
$6.1 billion or 20.8 percent to $35.2 billion, with over half of the increase in aircraft and parts. This follows a 10.5 percent
decrease in November. Electronic and other electrical equipment was up $1.1 billion or 6.0 percent to $19.3 billion, primarily
due to communications equipment. Primary metals increased $1.0 billion or 9.0 percent to $11.7 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in December increased $4.7 billion or 3.7 percent to $132.8 billion, following a 2.3 percent
increase in November. Excluding defense, shipments were up $4.5 billion or 3.8 percent. Without transportation equipment,
shipments increased $3.1 billion or 3.3 percent. All major groups except furniture and fixtures increased. Transportation
equipment had the largest increase, up Ste billion or 4.6 percent to $35.6 billion, primarily due to motor vehicles and parts.
Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.0 billion or 5.4 percent to $19.2 billion, and industrial machinery and
equipment was up $0.7 billion or 3.4 percent to $22.5 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in December increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $450.2 billion. This is the
second increase in the last sixteen months. Excluding defense, unfilled orders were up $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent. Without
transportation equipment, unfilled orders increased $2.1 billion or 1.0 percent. Primary metals was up $0.7 billion or 3.4
percent to $20.4 billion. Instruments and related products and fabricated metal products also had large increases. The largest
decrease was in transportation equipment, down $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $243.8 billion, due to aircraft and parts.
Transportation equipment has declined in fourteen of the last sixteen months and is at the lowest level since September 1989.
Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $50.6 billion, the lowest level since July 1987.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in December increased $5.1 billion or 17.9 percent to $33.7 billion. The
December increase follows a 9.7 percent decrease in November. Shipments were up $1.2 billion or 3.8 percent to $34.0 billion,
following a 3.1 percent increase in November. Unfilled orders, down $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $219.2 billion, have declined
for nine consecutive months and are at the lowest level since November 1989. Excluding aircraft and parts, nondefense new
orders increased 6.4 percent, shipments were up 4.7 percent, and unfilled orders declined 0.1 percent.

New orders for defense were up $1.0 billion or 14.3 percent to $7.7 billion, due to shipbuilding and tanks and aircraft
and parts. The December increase follows a 9.1 percent decrease in November. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 2.3 percent
to $7.8 billion, following a 0.6 percent increase in November. Unfilled orders declined $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $1273
billion. Unfilled orders have declined in fifteen of the last sixteen months and are at the lowest level since February 1984.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1993 RELEASE DATES)

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published February 4, 1993. ‘The advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled for
February 24, 1993. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
chi
Deg, Nov, Oct, | Novs| Qet.;] Sept Deg, Nov, Dec. ange
199 1992 1993 | Dec®} Nov! ct. 1992 1992 1991 | Dec.92/91
DURABLE GOODS
‘Total :
Shipments... 2.0.0.0... eee 132,804 128,102 125,162 +37 $23, 01 115,517 +141
New orders 00000020000 20.0]} 34473. | 123}276 | 1251302 | +91 16) +46 13430 | +183
Unfilled orders ..........--5 450,193 448,524 453,350 +04 “ll 0.0 479,724 65
Excluding defense :
‘Shipments . wee 124,969 120,446 117,550 +38 +25 +05 119,481 105,071 +158
New orders .... . 126,743 116,516 117,863 +88 -ll +28 114.725 1OT.R99 +212
Unfilled orders . . 322,871 321,097 325,027 +0.6 12 +01 318.352 330,093, AR
With unfilled orders =
Shipments... =. 107,355 | 103,984 | 102040| +32] +19] 0.7] 110,322] 103985} 98,716] +118
New orders . 109,024 99,158. 102,186 +99 3.0 +51 112,761 99.129 96.619 +167
Primary metals :
Shipments. 11020] 10955] 10,749] +06] +19} 12 9920] — 10.816 9548) +39
New orders | 111698 | 10731] 10394] +90] +32] +51] 11,262 | 10,663 9767 | +153
Unfilled orders 20307 | 19'719 | 9943] 434] TT] AZ] 202240) 183898] 21345 32
Industrial machinery and equipment : : Sees een mae
Shipments ney ame campment= 1 22546] 21,809] 20,730 +34] +52] -16] 25,087) 20,980] 21,713
New orders... | 2176| 21'535| 20687) +30] +43) 27) 24469] — 20,795 | 201870
Unfilled orders’ | 50613 | 50985 | 51,259) 07] 035] = 1] S0f3s1 | 50/930) 53,071
Blectronic and other
Secaneupment 19172 | 18,190 | 18,536 19} +19] 19897] 18,704] 17,666] +126
New orders . . 19,30: 18,209 18,919 38 +23 19,715 18,594 17,858 +104
Unfilled orders 42828 | 421698 x 00] +09]  42:066] 423248} = 41,625] +11
TM Sibmeate pment: 35,602 34,027 32459] +46] +48] +28 34,866 34,288 28,237] +235
New orders |. 35.158 g'oo4 | 321498 | +208] 105] +212] 34602] 30148 | 271482 | +259
Unfilled orders’ | 2a3iea2 | 244286 | 249219 | 0.2) "-20 010 | 24d'237 | © 244'501 | 2695593 34
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES®
Shipments 4ign| 49407) 39366] +35] +26] 25] 49498] 39.879 +118
New orders. 41,454 35,365 39,104 417.2 9.6 +94 49,576 35,746 +168
Dee pee 3a647d | 346851 | 351893] 01 4} 0.1] 347097 | 347019 82
Scents, 33,996 32,751 31,754] +38 +31 09 39,460 31,719 +167
Rae orders...........0.. 33,724 28,605 31,665 +179 27 +36 38,847 27.086 +25.
Unfilled orders | 219.152 219,424 223,570 01 “19 0.0 218.816 219.429 7
Uxcluding aircraft and parts : 27,794 | 26,546] 25,993] +47] 421 -18| 31.667 698 +17
Revorders 2 naan 27,737 6062 25.945, +64 +05 17 31.269 27 +198
Unfilled orders : 72,286 723 72,827 OL 07 OL TL9SO 72.348 34
Defense : 7,835 7,656 qo} +23] +06 86 10,038 8,160 10,446
Ree orders. coe 770 6,760 7439 | +143 91) +439 10,729 x 11521
Dow orders, worse | wztaar | see323| 01] or] 70a] 128281 | 27390 | 143631

(NA) Not available. " Revised.

| ghipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month vasiations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted
for trading-day of calendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample.

3 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, const mining and material handling equipment,
metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, hesting and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and
distribution equipment, electrical industial apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, alrcraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and

tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.
Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Dec. ] Dec. 1991- | Year ago Dec.] Dec. 1991-| Year ago Dec. ] Dec. 1991-

Dec. 1991 | 1987-1991 | Nov. 1992| Dec. 1991| 1987-1991 | Nov. 1992] Dec. 1991| 1987-1991 |_Nov. 1992

Durable goods ... 2.2.0... . 0.3 0.5 03 03 1,2 0.7 0.0 0.2 OL

Primary metals eee 04 09 0.2 Ml 1.2 1.0 0.7 OS o4

Industrial machinery and equipment 06 1.0 07 10 19 09 02 06 ol
Electronic and other

lectrical equipment 03 13 06 12 3 08 06 0s O41

fransportation equipment 0.2 0.7 07 02 25 17 O0 O% O2

Nondefense capital goods . 0S 1.0 08 03 19 16 On O38 02

Defense capital goods . 02 32 16 07 9.2 65 ov 05 02



Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

150 150
New Orders
1407 Shipments |] 140
130 - : _--{ 130
120 120
110 F 110
100 4 i 1 i" i 1 L 1 1 J 100
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1990 - Dec. 1992
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45

New Orders

ar Shipments |-) 40

~| 35

30

e5 Li L 1! fl aL n 1 l 1 1 L ! LJ 95
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

Dec. 1990 -Dec. 1992
Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.