U.S. Department of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Washington, D.C. 20233

FIRST-CLASS MAIL
POSTAGE & FEES PAID
CENSUS
PERMIT No. G-58

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Penaity for Private Use, $300

NOTICE

Revised historical data for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders will be
issued on June 18, 1997. The revisions to the historical data are the result of:

° benchmarking the shipments and inventory data to the 1994-1995 Annual Survey
of Manufactures (ASM).

. adjusting new and unfilled orders to be consistent with the benchmarked shipments
and inventory data.

° correcting monthly data for late receipts, reclassification of reported data, and
revisions to previously reported data.

e updating the seasonal adjustment factors for all series.
The publication will include data from 1987-December 1996. An accompanying press

release will include the revised 1997 March - April data. Please call Kathy Menth on
(301) 457-4832 with questions.



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE. | witirtin
N EV. S WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 PORCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 May 28, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97-92

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(97)-04

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
April 1997
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $2.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $175.6 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.2 percent March decrease and is the third increase
in the last four months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent, also the third increase in the last four months.
Year to date, new orders are 6.3 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up for the first month since January, had the largest increase, $1.7 billion or 4.5 percent to $39.4 billion;
all component industries except railroad equipment increased. This follows a 3.9 percent March decrease. Industrial machinery and
equipment, up for the fifth consecutive month, increased $0.7 billion or 2.2 percent to $33.9 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent March
increase. Primary metals, up five of the last six months, increased $0.4 billion or 2.8 percent to $16.4 billion, following a 1.2 percent
March increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $1.5 billion or 5.3
percent to $27.3 billion, due to electronic components and communication equipment. This follows a 6.0 percent March decrease.

@ SHIPMENTS of durable goods in April, up for the fourth consecutive month, increased $1.9 billion or 1.1 percent to $177.3 billion,
following a 0.9 percent March increase. Year to date, shipments are 7.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up for the fourth consecutive month, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 3.3 percent to $41.3 billion,
with all component industries increasing. This follows a 0.4 percent March increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up four
of the last five months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $33.4 billion, following a 2.0 percent March increase. Primary metals,
up six of the last seven months, increased $0.3 billion or 1.8 percent to $16.0 billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down
for the first month since January, decreased $1.0 billion or 3.5 percent to $28.5 billion, following a 3.3 percent March increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in April decreased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $493.4 billion. This
follows a 0.4 percent March decrease and is the second decline since August 1996.

Transportation equipment had the largest decline, $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $250.1 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This follows
a 0.9 percent March decrease and is the third consecutive monthly decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the
second consecutive month, decreased $1.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $50.3 billion, following a 1.5 percent March decrease. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up for the fourth consecutive month, increased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $74.1 billion, following a 0.4
percent March increase. Primary metals, also up for the fourth consecutive month, increased $0.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $31.6
billion, following a 1.1 percent March increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in April increased $1.4 billion or 28.0 percent to $6.2 billion, the first
increase since November. This follows a 12.2 percent March decrease. Shipments, up two of the last three months, increased $0.2
billion or 2.8 percent to $6.4 billion, following a 3.2 percent March decrease. Unfilled orders, down for the third consecutive month,
decreased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $107.9 billion, following a 1.3 percent March decrease.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in April, down five of the last seven months, decreased $0.6
billion or 1.3 percent to $44.9 billion, following a 2.9 percent March decrease. Shipments increased $0.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $46.3
billion. This follows a 3.6 percent March increase and is the fifth increase in the last six months. Unfilled orders, down for the second
consecutive month, decreased $1.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $254.5 billion, following a 0.1 percent March decrease. Excluding aircraft
and parts, new orders decreased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $40.0 billion, the second consecutive monthly decrease; shipments
increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $39.3 billion, the fifth increase in the last six months; and unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion
or 0.7 percent to $100.5 billion, the fourth consecutive monthly increase.

© REVISED MARCH DATA Revised seasonally adjusted March figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $321.7
billion (revised from $321.1 billion); new orders, $319.9 billion (revised from $319.2 billion); unfilled orders, $520.3 billion (revised
from $520.1 billion); and total inventories, $442.3 billion (revised from $442.7 ion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS.
Our internet address is http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 4, 1997. ‘The advance report on durable goods for May is scheduled for June 25, 1997. This report is available
‘on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Ape Mar, Feb.| Mar | Feb- | — Jan- 8p Mar. ARE
197% 1997 1997 | Apr? | Mar’ | ‘Feb. 1997 1997 1996 | Apr.97/96
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments | wees 177,302 | 175,364] 173,741] +11] +09] +20] 176233 | 188,571 | 162,910
New ord 1753555 | 173,186 | 177075 | +14 22] +10] 175;001 | 186,628 | 162,903 +74
Unfilled orders 493/380 | 495;127 | 497,305 | -0.4 204] 40:7 | 498,173 | 499/405 | 475;361

Excluding defense

Shipments 170,899 169,136 167,308 +1.0 +11 1 170,230 182,009 157,428

New orders. 169,363 168,348 171,563 +0.6 ed +14 169,610 178,992 157,850 +75

Unfilled orders . . 385,464 387,000 387,788 04 -0.2 387,848 388,468 366,551 5.8
With unfilled orders :

Shipments . . . 144,981 143,927 142,249 +07 +12 42.9 141,623 155,107 129,665 2

New orders 143,234 141,749 145,583 +10 2.6 +16 140,391 153,164 129,658 48.3

Primary metals :

Shipments . 15,961 15,676 15,680 0.0 40.8 16,465 16,257 15,382,
New orders. 2... 16,449 16006 | 15817 | +28 +12 -0'5 16,838 17,068 153361 49.6
Unfilled orders 31555 | 31,067 | 30.737 +11] +04 | 33040 | 32;667 | 30/866
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . . 33,432 | 32,920 | 32,288 S| 32,203 | 38,731 29,714 +84
New orders 33,938 33,217 33,1 42.2 +0.2 +2.0 32,733 37,785 29,757 +10.0
Unfilled orders 74,090 | 73,584) 73,2 2 4,085 | 73,555} 71,999 429
Electronic and other
electrical equipment
Shipments ...... 28,522 29,550 8,594 433 +61 26,760 31,587 24,997 47.1
New orders 27257 | 28:782 | 30/632 60] +78] 26,289) 29511 26,202 +03
Unfilled orders $0,288 | 51,553 | 52,321 AS] +41 50,811 51,282 645 403
Transportation equipment
Shipments . : 41343 | 40,040 | 39,894 04] +01) 43,227] 43,016 | 39,798 6
New orders , 37,676 39,213 3.9 12 41,085 42,907 38,294 473
Unfilled orders) 250/060 | 252,039 | . 254/403 -09 -03 | 252434 | 254;576 | 236,795
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments ....... $2,658 | $1,986 | $0,581 413 +28] +428] 49473] sosi | 44,225] +119
New orders $1140 | 50370 | 521423 | +15 39] +08} 47,668 | 58,871 | 42,745 +15
Untitled orders ©. ++. | 362455 | 363,973 | 365/589 -04 04] +05 | 365,006 | 366,811 | 349/227 +45
Nondefense :
Shipments 46.255 | 45,758 | 44,148 | +1 43.6] 424} 43,470 | 52,589 | 38,743 | +122
New orders 44948 | 45,532 | 46,911 -13 29) 424] 42277 | 51235 | 37692 | +122
Unfilled orders’ sss] 254,539 | 255;846 | 256,072 05 Ol} +11 | 254681 | 255;874 | 240,417 459
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments - 39,325 39,192 38,344 +03 2.2 36,500 45,199 33,956 +75
New orders . 40/027 | 40250 | 40,609 -06 09} +472] 37316] 45129 | 337944 +99
Unfilled orders: 100,490 99,788 98,730 +07 1 100,632 99,816 98,612 42.0
Defense :
Shipments ...... 6,403 6,228 6,433 42.8 3.2 +61 6,003 6,562 $,482 49.5
New orders : 6,192 4838 5512 | +280] -122]  -11.1 5,391 7,636 5,053 +67
Unfilled orders . . 107,916 108,127 109,517 0.2 13 08 110,325 110,937 108,810 +14

(NA) Not available.“ Revised,

" Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-momh variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variation

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey eror and revision. One major component of survey ero is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverag
response and nonzepotng. Since the survey panel isnot «probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannox be Calculated, Further deals on survey design, methodology. and data limiauons are contained in our most recent nm
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(55), "Manufactrers' Shipments, inventories, and. Orders: 1982-1995."

Te Cua Gols nus ince Nowifes ordnance and acess, sam egies adie, eal combusin ngs, cusutonmiting and mal hang eqipmen, neutering matory, clint
Imachinery, gn industria machinery, compu and office equipment, reieton, eating and service ary %
complete aferatt, misiles, and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and part, ships and tank ala and search and ravigation

Defense capital goods include; ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, anks and tank componens, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Ind Shipments ‘New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago ‘Apr. | Apr. 1996- | _ Year ago ‘Apr. ] Apr. 1996-| Year ago ‘Apr. | Apr. 1996-

Apr. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Mar. 1997| Apr. 1996] 1992-1996 | Mar. 1997] Apr. 1996| 1992-1996 | Mar. 1997

Durable goods . 03 02 02 01 03 04 00 00 01

Primary metals 03 07 O4 06 09 1.0 06 05 05

Industrial machinery and equipment . 0.0 06 05 08 10 08 05 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 01 04 06 02 07 1 oO. 02 06

Transportation equipment 0s 04 04 05 07 12 0.0 o1 02

Nondefense capital goods . 00 03 05s 04 08 07 01 1 02

Defense capital goods... 06 05 Li 08 4.1 53 00 ol 03

Note: ‘The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
190 190
New Orders
180

170

160

por cct Shipments |-] 180

170

160

150 150
140 L 1 1 1 L L i 1 1 i L L 140
Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr
Apr. 1995 - Apr. 1997
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

83 F--- ee ee rr rr rr rr re ee er ere eee ee New Orders |-4 53
Shipments

48; -------------- + ee eee eee ee eee ee ee ee 448

43

38

33

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb = Apr
Apr. 1995 - Apr. 1997

33

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dotlars.