ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

COMMERCE Hii
ADMINISTRATION
XN -WS BUREAU OF THE
= Ee — WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673- March 27, 2001

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-01-59

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(00)-02

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 2001

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $199.2
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 7.3 percent January decrease.
Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2001 are 6.0 percent below the
same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.1 billion or 2.6 percent to $41.4 billion; all component industries
declined. Industrial machinery and Squipment decreased $1.1 billion or 2.4 percent to $42.6 billion. Primary metals, down
five consecutive months, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $13.9 billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment
increased $2.2 billion or 6.0 percent to $39.4 billion, due to electronic components.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in February decreased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $200.9 billion, following
a 2.5 percent January decrease. This is the fifth consecutive decrease. Year to date, shipments for 2001 are 3.3 percent
below the same period a year ago.

Industrial machinery and equipment, led by computer and office equipment, had the largest decrease, $1.6 billion or 3.6
percent to $41.8 billion. This is the largest decrease since December 1991. Primary metals, down eight consecutive
months, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $14.3 billion. Transportation equipment, up for the first time since
September 2000, increased $1.4 billion or 3.5 percent to $42.6 billion, due to aircraft and parts. Electronic and other
electrical equipment increased 0.1 percent to $40.4 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in February decreased $1.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $568.4
billion, following a 0.3 percent January decrease. Transportation equipment, led by aircraft and parts, had the largest
decrease, $1.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $262.6 billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down three consecutive
months, decreased $1.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $94.7 billion, due to electronic components. Primary metals, down fifteen
of the last sixteen months, decreased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $28.8 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment
increased $0.9 billion or 1.0 percent to $93.0 billion, due to engines and turbines.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in February increased $1.6 billion or 28.8 percent to $7.0
billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $6.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.6
percent to $110.2 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in February decreased $4.1 billion or 6.4 percent to
$59.6 billion. Shipments increased $0.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $60.3 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.7 billion or
0.2 percent to $295.0 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders, down four of the last five months, decreased $2.2
billion or 4.0 percent to $52.1 billion; shipments, down four of the last five months, decreased $1.4 billion or 2.6 percent to
$51.4 billion; and unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $131.0 billion.

©@ REVISED JANUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted January figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $366.9 billion (revised from $368.0 billion); new orders, $364.9 billion (revised from $366.5 billion); unfilled
orders, $595.1 billion (revised from $595.6 billion); and total inventories, $496.0 billion (revised from $496.3 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS
Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published April 3, 2001 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for March ‘is scheduled for April 25, 2001 at

2.20 AM. Thic remart i¢ availahla an the dav af icene thranch STAT-ISA/Internet at www etat-nca cou


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Feb Jan Dec Jan - Dec - Nov - Feb Jan Feb Feb
20017 2001‘ 2000 Feb? Jan‘ Dec 2001? 2001‘ 2000 01/00
RABLI
Total:
200,910] 201,495] 206,588] 0.3 25 -0.5} 196,178] 175,241 4.4
New Orders. 199,199] 199,588] 215,289 0.2 7:3 +1:4] 193,269] 181,491] 208,416 -7:3
Unfilled Order: 68,361, 570,072] 571.979 0.3 0:3 +1:5] 569,271) 572,180] 525,566] +8.3
Excluding defens
Shipments. 194,549] 195,042] 199,950 0.3 “2.5 -0.6] 190,063} 169,974] 199,252 4.6
New Orders. 192,204] 194,155] 209,166 1.0] 72 +2:5] 187,193] 175,920] 201,932 7:3
Unfilled Orders. 458,111] 460,456] 461/343, 0.5) 0.2 +2.0] 458,704] 461,574) 429,012) +6.9
With unfilled orders:
Shipments 171,006] 171,203] 175,188 0.1 23 0.0] 165,225] 147,864] 167,685 15
New Orders 169,295] 169,296] 183.8 0.0 73 +2:3] 162,316] 154,114] 170,901 5.0
Primary metals:
‘Shipments 14,252) 14,453] 14,531 4 0.5 4.0] 14,525] 13,721] 16,424
New Orders. 13,89 14,041] 14,123] 1 -0.6 4.7] 14,993] 14,245] 17,262
Unfilled Order: 28/830] 29,192] 29,604 2 “1.4 -1:4] 29,839] 29,371] 33,011
Industrial machinery and equipment:
41,762] 43,335] 42,807 -3.6) +12 0.7] 39,368} 35,923] 38,750] +1.6
4: 699] 42,012 “2.4 +40) -3:2] 40,656] 37,330] 40,228] +1.1
92/955] 92.074] 91,710 +1 +0.4) -0.9} 93,9 92,708] 85,321] +10.2
electrical equipment:
Shipments. 40,406] 40,356] 41,529 +01 “2.8 +2.4| 38,272| 34,108] 36,667] +4.4
39,399] 37,173] 40,546 +6.0 8.3 -0.9| 35,456] 34,223] 38,024 6.8
94,651| 95,658] 98,841 at 3.2 -1.0] 93/363} 96,179] 88,762] +5.2
Transportation equipment:
Shipments 42,556| 41,119] 44,789 +35 -8.2 -1.5| 43,356] 36,604] 49,059] -11.6
New Orders 41/398] 42'508| 55.733 26 -23.7] +124) 41,507] 39.646] 48,578] -14.6
Unfilled Order: 262'595| 263,753] 262,364 0.4 +05) 44.4) 262,695] 264/544] 231,062) +13.7
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES *
Total:
Shipment: 66,662| 66,490] 68,579 +0.3 -3.0) 61,880] 53,844] 59,987] +3.2
New Orde 66,605] 69, 78,177 “3.6 “11.6 +7:3] 61,752] 58,888] 61.406] +06
Unfilled Ord 405,272] 405,329] 402,711 0.0 +0.7 +2:4) 406,614] 406,742] 359,688] +13.0
Nondefense:
60,301] 60,037] 61,941 +0.4] “3.1 +0.1] 55,765] 48,577] 54,039] +3.2
59,610| 63,675] 72,054 “6.4 116} +11:7] 55,676] 53,317] 54922] +14
Unfilled Orders. 295,022| 295,713] 292,075 -0.2 +1.2| +3.6] 296,047] 296,136] 263,134) +125
Excluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments. 51,372| 52,758] 53,692 2.6) 1.7 +0.6) 47,102) 42,573] 47,113) 0.0
52,078} 54,249] 52,188) 4.0 +3.9) 1:5] 48,410] 45,166] 48,488) 0.2
131,006] 130,300] 128,809 +05 +122) -1:2] 132,031] 130,723] 120,904] +9.2
6,361 6,453] 6,638] 1.4 -2.8) +25) 6,115] 5,267 5,948] +28
6,995 5,433 6123|  +28.8] 11:3 26.8) 6,076| 5.571 “6.
110,250] 109,616} 110,636] +0.6 0.9 -0.5] 110,567] 110,606] 96,554] +145
(NA) Not Available Revised
’ paiement sad new orders are, the jotats for for the he period & ‘and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are
" aused on facturers’ are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error ig
nonsampling or uch knchaes enters af coverage, Teapones and nonreporting, - Bice the nurvey Panel is not @ probability ‘sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.
¥, metho Ye data are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3- S197),
‘Manufacturers Shipmants, Inventories, nd Orders: 1987-199.~
® The Capital Industries ombustion engines, and material handling
‘machinery. special industry nachinery. 9 general Tndusteal machisory, computer are olfice equipment tion, heating and industry machinery,

‘electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment, complete akeratt, minsles, and space vehicles, skcraft missies, and
‘space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment
Defense Capital Goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ‘hips, tanks end tank component

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on Seasonally Adjusted Data).

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry ‘Year ago] Feb.] Feb. 2000-[ Year ago| Feb.| Feb. 2000-[ Year ago] Feb.] Feb. 2000-|
Feb. 2000] 1996-2000] Jan. 2001] _Feb. 2000|_ 1996-2000] Jan. 2001] __Feb. 2000] 1996-2000] Jan. 2001
Durable Goods.. 0.4 0.3] 0.4) 0.6 0.6) ¢: 8 0.2 0.2) 0.2]
Primary metal: 0.5 0.3) 0.3 0.9 0.9) 0.7) 0.2 0.3] 0.2
ial machinery and equipment. 0.8 0.8) 0.9) 0.9 0.8 1.2 70.5 0.3) 0.3

and other

electrical equipment. 0.4 0.7 0.8] 3.5) 1.8 2.1 “14 0.7 0.7
Transportation equipment. 0.3 0.8 0.8] 0.7 1.6 17 0.1 0.2 0.2
Nondefense capital goods. 0.5 0.8 0.9) 0.5 0.9 1.4] 0.0) 0.2 0.2
Defense capital goods.. 0.5 11 1.5) 1.2 5.9 6.6 0.1 0.3 0.3

Note: The revisions are the differances between the month-to-month nercant chanaes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the

arch and navigation equipment.


TOTAL DURABLE GOODS
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions Of Dollars,

230 230
225 225
220 f— 220
215 = 215
- ~N
210 >= N 210
205 = SN 205
200 200
195 195
190 190
$ 8 8 8 ¢$ #@ 8 8 8 $ $ 8 &
2 S c oa o A a2 c oO o yu Eo}
2 ¢ 3 2 6 4 # @ 3 32 86 8 #
— — Shipments ——_New Orders
NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
70 Billions Of Dollars 70
65 ZN 65
L----=— +
60 60
4
-_—
55 — = 55
—
50 50
$ 8 $$ 8 &@ @ 8 $ $8 8 8 8 6
2 = = oa o y 2 5 co oa o u a
fe ~¢ 3 2 6 86 # @ 3 3 6 8 2
— — Shipments ——__ New Orders

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.