UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
=
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
WASHINGTON, DC 20230

U.S. Census Bureau For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 August 27, 2002
For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy CB-02-112
(301) 763-4832 or (301) 763-4814
M3-1(02)-7

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS" SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
Suly 2

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars and.exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in July increased $14.4 billion or 8.7 percent to $179.7 billion, the Department
of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 4.5 percent June decrease and is the largest increase since
October 2001. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.9 percent. Excluding Defense, new orders increased 7.3 percent;
this is the largest increase on record. Year to date, new orders for 2002 were 1.9 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $9.8 billion or 20.8 percent to $56.7 billion, led mostly by aircraft and parts
which increased $6.9 billion. Machinery increased $2.5 billion or 11.8 percent to $23.3 billion; this is the largest increase on

record.

© SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in July increased $5.3 billion or 3.1 percent to $178.5 billion. This followed a 1.6
percent June decrease. Year to date, shipments for 2002 were 2.4 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.2 billion or 6.2 percent to $54.7 billion, led by motor vehicles and parts
which increased $2.8 billion. Computers and electronic products increased $0.9 billion or 3.5 percent to $27.0 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in July increased $1.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $489.8 billion. This
followed a 1.6 percent June decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $249.9 billion, due to defense aircraft and parts
which increased $3.0 billion.

@ INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in July, down eighteen consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.4
percent to $264.5 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent June decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent-to.$71.4 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in July decreased $0.9 billion or 14.3 percent to $5.4 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 3.2 percent to $6.5 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $124.7
billion. Inventories decreased $0.9 billion or 4.8 percent to $18.0 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in July increased $6.9 billion or 13.5 percent to $57.7
billion. Shipments increased $2.0 billion or 3.6 percent to $58.3 billion. Unfilled orders, down eighteen consecutive months,
decreased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $213.6 billion. Inventories, down eighteen consecutive months, decreased $0.5 billion or
0.5 percent to $115.1 billion.

@ REVISED JUNE DATA Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $312.0
billion (revised from $313.2 billion); shipments, $319.8 billion (revised from $320.5 billion); unfilled orders, $488.5 billion
(revised from $489.1 billion); and total inventories, $428.3 billion (revised from $428.0 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This reper presents advati¢e information on two key business indicatots: durable manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed gstimates plus nondurable goods
data will be published September 5, 2002 at 10:00 A.M EDT. The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled for September 26, 2002 at 8:30 A.M EDT.


Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments : and New Orders
[Millions of Dollars]

‘Seasonally Adjusted + ES Not Seasonally Adjusted '
Monthly = Percent Change Monthly Percent
item Change
Jul Jun May Jun May - Apr - Jul Jun Jul Jul
2002 7 2002' 2002 Jul? Jun" May 2002? 2002" 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:"
Shipments 178,711 173,183] 175,927 34 1.6 -0.3] 153,219] 188,105] 149,537
New Orders. : 179,740} 165,332] 173,064] 37] 435 0.4} 184/492] 176,269, 144,180]
Excluding transportation:*
NShipmentsr | 123.777) 121,673] 123,660 17 1.6 0.7] 114,644] 132,373 113,895] 07
New Orders.) 123,018] 118,393] 123,225} 39 3.9 0.8] 114/684] 126,656] 112,086 23
Excluding defense:*
MOENDINEMS ore occcececeeseseeen] 170,720) 165,157] 168,342 3.4 “1.9 0.3] 148,400] 179,140] 143,389] 24
New Orders 169,451] 157/966] 166,764 73 5.3 0:7] 146/896] 169;108| 139,836 510
Manufacturing with unfilled orders:*
MUTA SNIDIMENES rian 123,947] 121,507] 122,732 2.9 1.9] -0.2] 108,549] 132,081] 108,126 0.4
New Orders 125,218] 113/656] 119,868 10.2] 5.2 0:8] 109,822] 120,245] 102,769] 69
Primary metats:
Shipments. | 11,339) 11,210) 11,309 1.3 0.9] -0.1| 10,679] 11.608] 10,542 1.3
New Orders 11138] 11/120) 11/448 0 238 va] © 10.419] 11404] 10,361 06
Fabricated metal products:
ShPMENSeceseecccrssenn 21.333] 21,037] 21,0471 14] 0.0} 0.6] 20,277) 21,948 19,749] 27
New Orders.) 21,568] 20,633) 21,312] 45 3.2 13 21,162] 21/220] 20,088 55
Machinery:
Shipments. 23,354] 22,982 23,5291 1.8 2.5 3.8] 21,264] 25,443] 21,447] -0.9
New Orders 23/342] 20,886] 22,772! a3 x) 15] 211aaal 22/587] 20,886 27
Computers and electronic products
ompR Spipments. sess | 27,048] 26,138] 26,872 3.5 2.7) 0.1 23,202] 30,334) 23,701 “24
New Overs. cl] 26/543 25/545] (26,780 39 “46 oof 22,080] 28,813] 21.488 28
Computers and related products:
‘Shipments. 7,085 6,253 6,578 13.5 “4.9 “14 5,870 8,043 5,827
New Orders : 6314 5,984] 6,634 13.5] “9.8 315 5,274 7,663 5,608
Communications equipment
‘Shipments 5,461 5,583 5,859 2.2 “4.7 35 4,624] 6,664 5,898 21.6
New Orders 5,626 5,097 8016 10.4] “1513 27 4/464] 5/452 4/529 “hd
Semiconductors:*
Shipments svnnenentne (NA) (NA) (nay) nal] (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA (A)
New Orders (NA) (Na) (NA) (Na) (NA) (Na) (Na) (Na) (NA) (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
‘and components
Shipments 9.112 9.011 9,199 Mw -2.0 0.5 8,166 9,792 8711
New Orders. 91075 9,225 9/346 116 “13 “18 8,481 9,758| 9,083
Transportation equipment: .
Shipments 54,604] 51,512) 52,2671 6.2 “14 -2.5| 38,575] 55,732] 35,642
New Orders. 36,722| 46,838] 49,839] 20.8 “5.8 “0'5] 38,808] 49,613, 32,094]
Motor vehicles and parts: .
Shipments 39,959] 37,113] 38,208 7 2.9 -2.8] 26,737] 39,401] 23,810] 123
New Orders. 40.012] 37/218] 38,385 75 3.0) -2.4) 26.351] 39,228 23,729] 13.6
Nondefense aircraft and parts:
Shipments 6,597 6,147 6,249 73 “1.8 “6.7 5,049 7,029 5,872 “14.0
New Orders. 6,172 2.785 5,216 121.5 46.6 39.5 4/925 31563 3/959 28.4
Defense aircraft and parts:
Shipments . 3,164 3,157 2,930 0.2 77 29 2,681 3,656 1,943 38.0
New Orders. 6/140] 21617 2.227 134.5 1755} 39 5/032 2499 11275 284.7
All other durable goods:
ShipMENG essere ost 31,594] 31,323] 31,704] og “1.2 0.6| 31,056] 33,253] 29,745 44
New Orders. anne 31/352] 30,884] 31/570) 12 “19 oa} 31,098] 32,878 30,210 29
Capital goods:”
Shipments 64,0411 63,031] 63,910) 2.9 1.4) os} 57,321] 71,215] 58,125) Az
New Orders. 63,017] 57,082]. 61.466 105 72 2.4] 84/319] 62399 52,596 313
Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments $8,339] 56,317] 87,593] . 3.8 2.2 0.7] 81,300] 63,921] 52,682] 28
New Orders 57.659] 50,7891 56,174 1355 36 3.6| 50,806] 56,697| 48,476] 48
Excluding aircraft:
‘Shipments. ss 54,891} 53,317] $4,450] 3.9 24 1.2| 48,8201 60,359] 49,786 “19
New Orders... 54/518] 60,455] 3,837 a1 “6.3|, 0'5] 48,633] 55,801] 47,805] v7
Defense capital goods:
Shipments 6,502| 6.714 6.317 “3:2 6.3 17 5,821 7,294 5,443 69
New Orders ae 5,358 6,253 5,292 14.3} 18.2 8.6 3513 5,702 4/120] 14.7

NA Not Available "Revised

| Shipments and new orders ar the total forthe period and are adjusted for trating day and calendar-month variations: unfiled orders and total inventories areas ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted
{for wading-day of calendar-month variations

{aged on advance sample, Estimates of manufactures’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject o survey eror and revision. One maior component of survey errors nonsampling eve, which includes

errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is Not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further deta In, methodology,
Sand data limtations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industral Reports: M3-1iO1), “Manufacturers” Shipments, inventories, and Orders: 1992-2001.”

rdnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machi i, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery: vending, laundry,
: neraors ther power vanemisson eauioment; pumps and compressors; material handing equipment al other machinery!
or atoraye devices other computer peripheral equipment’ communications equipments search and navigation equipments slectemedica

other electrical equipment. appliances, and components: heavy duty tucks; ayerelt; rairoad rollng stock; ships and boats; office and institutional funiture

electrical equipimen
supplies,

* Aggregate estimates and percent changes excide semiconductor industry data. Due to the number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the
Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, of inventories.

{Que to the numberof large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey, the Census Bureau cannot currently produce monthly estimates of semiconductor
shipments, orders, or inventories,

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.


Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Un

{Millions of Dollars]

led Orders and Total Inventot

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted’
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Jul Jun May Jun - May - Apr - Jul Jun Jul Jul
20027 | 2002 2002 Jul? Jun‘ May 20027 | 2002' 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:*
Unfilled Orders. 489,791] 488,522] 496,373 0.3 “1.6 -0.6] 490,922] 489,649] 526,572 68
Total Inventories. 264,532] 265,500] 266,417 -0.4 0:3] -0.5] 266,082} 263,498| 292,889 “9.2
Excluding transportation:
Unfilled Orders... 239,936] 240,695] 243,973} 0.3 1.3 -0.2] 240,876] 240,836] 265,994]
Total Inventories. 193,128] 193,140] 194,247] 0.0) -06 -0.7] 194,053] 192,182] 216,669]
Excluding defense:*
Unfilled Orders... 344,576] 345,835] 353,026 0.4 -2.0) -0.4] 346,336] 345,840] 394,714] -12.3
Total Inventories. 243,077} 243,075] 244,360 0.9) “05 -0.4] 244,407] 241/148] 271,097 8
Manufacturing with unfilled orders:*
Unfilled Orders. 489,791] 488,522] 496,373] 0.3 “1.6 -0.6] 490,922] 489,649 526,572 6.8
Total inventories. 215,452] 216,434] 217,337 -0.5 “0.4 -0.7| 216,756] 214,777] 239,998 “9.7
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders. 15,875] 16,076] 16, 166| “13 0.8 0.8} 16,145] 16,405} 18,373
Total Inventories. 18,236] 18,279] 18,153 0.2 07 -0.8] 18,316] 18,106] 20,263
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders. 39,834] 39,599] 40,003 0.6 -1.0) 0.7] 40,673] 39,788) 43,990)
Total Inventories. 30,626] 30,575] 30,687 0.2| “0.4 -1.1] 30,900] 30,701) 33,601
Machinery:
48,195] 48,207] 50,273] 0.9) “4.4 +15] 48,107] 47,927] 56,324]
45,023] 45,074 45,473] 0.4 -0.9 -0.6] 44,9121 44,585] 48,942
Computers and electronic products:*
Unfilled Orders. . 111,544] 112,046] 112,639] 0.4] 0.5 -0.1) 111,088] 112,210] 120,639
Total Inventories... 43.091] 42,994] 43,743] 0.2 17 -15] 43,792) 42,732| 54,453
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders... 6.277 6.558 6,827 4.3 -3.9 0.8 6,287 6.683] 7321) -14.1
Total Inventories. 6,939 7,083 7,064] “16 -0.2| 0.2| 7,082| 6,899] 8533 -17.2
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 41,812) 41,647] 42,133 04 “12 0.4] 41,393] 41,553] 46,321] -10.6
Total Inventori 10,253] 10,131] 10,385} 1.2 2.4 -2.6) 10,333 9.917} 14,974] -31.0
(NA) (NA) (Na) (NA) (Nal} (Na) (Na) (wa) (NAI] (NAD
: (NA) (NA) (NA) (Na) (NA) (NA) (NA) (Na) (NA)] (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders... 15,003 15,040] 14,826 0.2 1.4 1.0] 15,0] 14,798] 16,095
Total Inventories. 13,085] 13,103] 13,143 0.4 0:3 -0.5] 13,0111 12,980] 14,073
Transportation equipment
Unfilled Orders. 249,855] 247,827] 252,400} 08 “1.8 -1.0] 250,046] 248,813] 260,578 4.0
Total Inventories. 71,404] 72,360] 72,170 13 0.3 0.0] 72,029] 71,316) 76,220 5.5
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders... 12,828] 12,776] 12,670 0.4 0.8 1.4] 12,769 12,555] 12,859)
Total Inventories. 20,485} 20,303] 20,168] 0.9 07 0.4| 20,969 20,116] 21,870)
Nondefense Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 112,712) 113,137] 116,499 -0.4] 2.9 -0.9} 113,406] 113,530] 136,858) -17.1
Total Inventories, 29,756] 30,060] 30,279 “1.9 0.7 0.7| 29,700 29.416} 32.837 9.6
Defense Aircraft and parts
Unfilled Orders. 57,760] 54,784] 55,324] 5.4 “1.0 -1.3] 57,919] 55,568] 42,558] 36.1
Total Inventories. 10,587 10,874] 10,617 -2'6 2a -2.1] 10,659} 10,827] 10,227 4.2
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 9,485 9,727] 10,066] 3.4] “1.3 9,753 97111 10,573] 78
Total Inventories. 43,061] 43,115 43,048] 0.2 0.3] 43,122] 43,078 48,337 “4.9
Capital goods:
infilled Orders... 338,221] 340,045] 346,034 “1.7 -0.7] 337,423] 340,225] 366,808} -8.0
Total Inventories. 133,081] 134,518] 135,200] -0.5) -0.7] 133/560} 132,908 150,653] -11.3
Nondefense capital goods
Unfilled Orders........ 213,569] 214,249 219,777 -0.3 -2.5| -0.6] 213,580] 214,074} 251,991 18.2
Total Inventories. 115,118] 115,643] 116,460 05 07 0.6) 115,397] 114/130) 131,751 12.4
Excluding aircraft:
Unfilled Orders. 130,562} 130,935] 133,797 -0.3 “24 -0.5} 130,573} 130,760) 147,919] -11.7
Total Inventories... 91,968] 91/936] 92,778 0.9] 0.9] -0.7} 92,275} 91,031] 105,142] -12.2
Defense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 124,652) 125,796] 126,257 0.4 -0.8] 123,843] 126,151] 114,817 79
Total Inventories... 17,973] 18,876] 18,740 07 -1.4] 18,163] 18,778] 18,902] “3.9

See footnotes at end of Table 1