cy

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | 2:28

BUREAU OF THE
NEWS siveron.o. axe es
SS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable October 26, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2512 CB94-167
M3-1(94)-09

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE bag son MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
tember 1994
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $154.7 billion, followin;
a 6.4 percent increase in August, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This is the second
consecutive increase, the seventh this year, and the twelfth in the last fourteen months. Year to date, new orders are 14.1 percent
above the same period a year ago; new orders for the third quarter are 1.5 percent above the second quarter.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $39.6 billion, due to shipbuilding and
tanks. This follows a 20.0 percent August increase and is the fifth increase this year. Electronic and other electrical equipment
increased $0.7 billion or 3.2 percent to $23.2 billion, due to communication equipment. This follows a 1.3 percent increase in
August and is the sixth increase this year. Primary metals was up $0.4 billion or 2.7 percent to $14.1 billion, following a 5.5

t increase in August. Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest decline, $0.7 billion or 2.5 percent to $29.1 billion,
following a 4.6 percent increase in August.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in September decreased $1.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $154.6 billion, following a 6.2 percent
increase in August. This is the fourth decline this year. Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest decline, $0.5 billion
or 1.7 percent to $27.9 billion. This follows a 4.1 percent increase in August and is the third decline this year. Transportation
equipment was down $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $40.3 billion, following a 17.2 percent increase in August. The largest increase
was in electronic and other electrical equipment, up $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $23.3 billion, due to communication equipment
and electronic components. Year to date, durable goods shipments are 11.5 percent above the same period a year ago; third quarter
shipments are 2.5 percent above the second quarter.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in September increased slightly to $423.7 billion. This follows declines in August and
July of 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the fifteenth consecutive month, had
the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 1.9 percent to $64.2 billion; nearly all categories increased except engines and turbines.
Primary metals increased $0.7 billion or 2.8 percent to $26.7 billion, the tenth consecutive monthly increase. Transportation
equipment, down twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine months, had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $203.6 billion,
due to aircraft and parts.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were up $1.3 billion or 21.7 percent to $7.5 billion, primarily due to shipbuilding and tanks. This
follows an increase of 10.8 percent in August. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 3.4 percent to $6.9 billion, following an
increase of 4.3 percent in August. Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $112.1 billion, following a decrease of

0.9 percent in August.

Nondefense - New orders increased $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $37.7 billion, with the largest increase in communication
equipment. This follows a 3.4 percent increase in August and is the fourth this year. Shipments were unchanged at $37.9 billion,
following an increase of 3.2 percent in August. Unfilled orders decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $198.8 billion. Excludi
aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.5 billion or 1.3 percent, following a 1.9 percent increase in August; shipments.

0.1 percent, following a 3.2 percent increase; unfilled orders increased $1.5 billion or 1.7 percent, the sixteenth consecutive monthly

increase.

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published:November 2, 1994. The advance report on ‘durable goods for October is scheduled for November 23, 1994. This
report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online ‘Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's
Eine infnemation eervice-CENTATA Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted ‘Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change ‘Monthly Percent
change
Sey Aug. Jul Aug.- July- June- Aug. Sept.
ae 1998 199% Sept? Aug! July i998 1953 |Sept.94/9:
DURABLE GOODS
fotal :
Shipments . . 154,574 155,593 146,472 0.7 46.2 24 164,458 152,599 147,012 +19
New orders . 154,732 154,570 145,251 +01 +6.4 3.9 162,338 193342 140,258 +15.7
Unfilled ordes 423,698 423,540 424,563 0.0 02 03 420,825 422,945 425,698 hl
Excluding defense :.
Shipments 147,682 148,459 139,634 05 +63 25 156,871 145, 348 138,971 +129
New orders ” 147,259 148,427 139,705 08 +6.2 3.1 154,336 1449 133,630 415.5
Unfilled orders 311,618 312,041 312,073 01 0.0 0.0 310,420 312, "958 305,671 +16
with unfilled ordei
Shipments . 122,080 122,134 117,949 0.0 43.5 “10 132,012 119,793 119,306 +106
New orders 122,238 12111 116,728 +0.9 +38 3.0 129,892 116,736 112,552 +154
Primary metals :
Shipments . 13,352 12,805 +02 +43 +0.6 13,923 13,535 12,004 16.0
13,737 13,020 +27 +55 0.6 13,861 13,059 11,207 423.7
: 25,990 25,605 +28 +15 40.8 25,755 25,817 21,388 0.4
Industrial machinery and equipme ,
Shipments. 27,882 28,368 27,253 AT +41 +0.5 30,145 26,270 590 +13.4
‘New orders 29,059 29,805 28,484 2.5 44.6 12 31,167 27,875 26,434 +179
Unfilled orders 64,211 63,034 61,597 +19 +23 2.0 s 900 50,618 +263

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments .

23,308 23,141 22,795 40.7 +15 +0.6 25,697 22,891 22,111 +162
New orders 3,195 22,474 22,183 43.2 +13 0.0 25,121 22,100 22,188 +132
Unfilled orders . 45,325 45,438 46,105 02 14 13 44,889 45,465 44,017 +2.0
‘Transportation equipment
Shipments 49,208 40,622 34,669 08 417.2 10.2 41,255 38,786 36,268 +13.8
38,743 32,297 +21 +20.0 148 39,955, 35, 31,632 +263
On sled @ orders’ | 203" SBT 204,314 206,193 04 09 ld 12, 203,346 220,514 8.4
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total: |
, 45,001 43,524 05 434 -15 49,439 42,339 44,978 +99
4: 693 41,856 +35 +44 72 49,380 39,930 40,884 +20.8
Untied orders | 310,910 310,476 311,784 +0.1 04 0.5 308,818 308,877 320,502 3.6
Nondefense ;
Shipments 37,880 867 36,686 0.0 +32 17 41,852 35,488 36,937 +133
37,733 37,550 36,310 +0.5 43.4 AG 41,378 35,366 34,256 +208
Oanied" ‘orde’s 198,830 198,977 199,294 0.1 02 0.2 198,413 198,887 200,475 10
mee aircraft and parts:
33,063 33,108 32,076 0.1 432 16 36,640 31,145 31,810 +15.2
34,566 34,113 33,462 +13 +19 3.0 37,816 32,345 31,912 +185
Nae ‘ord 87,473 85:970 Bai 417 +1 +17 87,056 857880 72166 420.6
Defense :
Shipments oe 6,892 7,134 6,838 33.4 +43 303 7,587 6,851 8,041 5.6
7473 6,143 5,546 +217 +108 213 8,002 4,564 6,628 420.7
Oanied ordefs . 112,080 111,499 112,490 +0.5 09 eld 110,405 109,990 120,027 8.0
(NA) Not available. * Revised
* Shipments and ow orders forthe period and are adjusted for and calendar-ondh unfilled orders ae as ofthe end of the peti’ and are sot adjusted for trading day or clendar-moneh variatc
‘Based on advance ample, Etimates of manne shipment and odes are tect to survey varity and revision. Sine the survey pane is not a probabty ample imate of sampling varihily cane te cleat
‘Fanter deuils on survey design, methodology. and data limtation are conained in Our most recent annual ‘Current ‘Reports: M3-1(92), and Orders: 1982-199,
sma Cont Cont nda che Nowseme; rune nd acer, am engine ud wuts, neal engines, ‘mining and material handling ting machinery, special inchs
‘general industrial machinery, computer and office reign, ening and verve insey a transmission and equipment, ‘spparent, s :
Shgee ite, missiles, and space vehicis, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.
‘apa! goods inclde’~ ordnance, communicaion equipmeat ara, mses, spare vehicles, ond part, she, unis and tak etmponcan, seach and nvignicn eupmct

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Indu Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
industry ‘Year ago Sept. [Sept 1993-] Year ago Sept. | Sept. 1993-| Year ago Sept. [Sept. 1993.
Sept. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Aug. 1994 | Sept. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Aug. 1994] Sept. 1993] 1989-1993 | Aug. 1994
Durable goods 04 03 03 04 0.6 04 0.0 01 Ol
Primary metals . 08 04 0.6 1.6 07 Ld 02 02 05
Industrial machinery and equipment . 02 0.1 06 0.6 08 0.6 0.0 03 02

Electronic and other 7

electrical equipment . 05 0.7 06 04 14 1.0 0.1 0.5 03
Transportation equipment . 09 0.7 Ost 0.7 2.0 09 0.0 03 Ol
Nondefense ci ital goods . 0s 04 06 int 17 08 02 02 0.1
Defense capital g¢ wee 19 2.0 09 16 72 58 Ol 03 03
are the diffe ‘the month- nth changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regaré

Note: The
for the months specified.