FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2008, AT 8:30 A.M. EST 

Chris Savage or Jessica Young 

Manufacturing and Construction Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (08)-10 

CB08-172

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

October 2008 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in 

October decreased $12.7 billion or 6.2 percent to $193.0 

billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This 

was the largest percent decrease in new orders since 

October 2006 and followed two consecutive monthly 

decreases including a 0.2 percent September decrease. 

Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 4.4 

percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6 

percent. 

 

 Transportation equipment, down two of the last three 

months, had the largest decrease, $6.1 billion or 11.1 

percent to $49.0 billion. 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, 

down three consecutive months, decreased $5.0 billion 

or 2.4 percent to $202.9 billion. This followed a 0.2 

percent September decrease. 

 Transportation equipment, down two of the last three 

months, had the largest decrease, $2.4 billion or 4.6 

percent to $48.3 billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

October, down for the first time in twenty-six months, 

decreased $4.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $823.6 billion. 

This followed a 0.2 percent September increase. 

 Primary metals, down three consecutive months, had 

the largest decrease, $2.8 billion or 10.9 percent to $23.3 

billion. This was the largest percent decrease since the 

series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992. 

Inventories 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, 

up fifteen of the last sixteen months, increased $1.4 

billion or 0.4 percent to $341.1 billion. This was at the 

highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS 

basis in 1992 and followed a 0.2 percent September 

increase. 

 Transportation equipment, up twenty-one of the last 

twenty-two months, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion 

or 1.5 percent to $89.9 billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in October 

decreased $2.4 billion or 3.6 percent to $65.6 billion. 

Shipments decreased $2.3 billion or 3.3 percent to $65.2 

billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 

percent to $482.4 billion. Inventories increased $1.2 

billion or 0.8 percent to $141.5 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in October 

decreased $3.7 billion or 31.0 percent to $8.3 billion. 

Shipments decreased 0.1 percent to $9.2 billion. 

Unfilled orders decreased $0.9 billion or 0.6 percent to 

$142.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.2 billion or 1.3 

percent to $19.1 billion. 

Revised September Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $429.4 

billion (revised from $432.0 billion); shipments, $431.6 

billion (revised from $432.9 billion); unfilled orders, 

$828.2 billion (revised from $829.5 billion); and total 

inventories, $558.5 billion (revised from $558.7 billion). 

Figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor 

manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>.

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on December 4, 2008, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The

advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled for release on December 24, 2008, at 8:30 a.m. EST. See back page 

for survey description and 2009 release dates. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Change

2008 2 2008 r 2008 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2008 2 2008 r 2007 2008 2007 08/07

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 202,867 207,892 208,339 -2.4 -0.2 -4.2 209,642 220,466 220,960 2,123,378 2,146,742 -1.1

 New Orders4

.............................. 193,021 205,679 206,084 -6.2 -0.2 -5.5 195,137 213,501 220,978 2,109,371 2,169,922 -2.8

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 154,529 157,197 158,574 -1.7 -0.9 -2.9 158,404 166,903 160,355 1,596,111 1,564,984 2.0

 New Orders4

.............................. 144,028 150,594 154,150 -4.4 -2.3 -4.2 145,898 158,456 157,449 1,557,321 1,531,952 1.7

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 190,883 195,718 196,659 -2.5 -0.5 -4.3 197,870 207,598 211,702 2,008,327 2,053,612 -2.2

 New Orders4

.............................. 181,374 190,103 193,660 -4.6 -1.8 -6.0 183,559 198,246 210,683 1,990,596 2,077,924 -4.2

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 144,966 150,119 150,376 -3.4 -0.2 -4.2 147,129 159,967 152,375 1,521,255 1,494,596 1.8

 New Orders4

.............................. 140,322 151,808 152,673 -7.6 -0.6 -6.4 138,939 156,463 157,903 1,557,698 1,571,483 -0.9

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 20,132 21,971 23,118 -8.4 -5.0 -3.4 20,710 22,850 21,257 225,834 204,911 10.2

 New Orders.............................. 17,284 19,771 21,371 -12.6 -7.5 -12.5 17,104 19,850 20,882 220,362 203,452 8.3

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 27,564 27,844 27,943 -1.0 -0.4 -2.2 28,870 29,287 28,589 281,714 276,670 1.8

 New Orders.............................. 26,939 27,462 27,731 -1.9 -1.0 -1.8 27,479 28,314 28,712 282,085 280,087 0.7

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 29,159 30,197 28,955 -3.4 4.3 -0.6 29,587 30,845 28,150 294,260 277,007 6.2

 New Orders.............................. 28,484 30,553 30,578 -6.8 -0.1 -6.6 29,258 30,300 30,216 308,612 286,164 7.8

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 31,530 30,555 31,283 3.2 -2.3 -5.6 31,196 34,642 31,529 316,247 316,340 0.0

 New Orders4

.............................. 26,150 26,792 27,626 -2.4 -3.0 1.9 24,985 31,608 26,637 267,935 268,851 -0.3

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 4,795 4,703 4,763 2.0 -1.3 -3.7 4,770 5,542 5,552 49,838 52,948 -5.9

 New Orders.............................. 4,465 4,723 4,844 -5.5 -2.5 0.7 4,440 5,562 4,961 49,715 52,958 -6.1 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 5,403 5,633 5,509 -4.1 2.3 -8.4 4,719 7,077 4,994 55,698 55,364 0.6

 New Orders.............................. 5,598 5,200 6,205 7.7 -16.2 5.3 5,106 6,916 4,967 56,706 57,171 -0.8

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 5,202 3,902 4,552 33.3 -14.3 -18.6 6,315 3,461 5,510 50,450 53,707 -6.1

 New Orders4

.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 10,424 10,524 10,554 -1.0 -0.3 -4.6 10,595 11,374 10,953 106,951 106,536 0.4

 New Orders.............................. 9,651 10,188 10,302 -5.3 -1.1 -3.3 9,799 10,651 10,874 107,458 108,273 -0.8

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 48,338 50,695 49,765 -4.6 1.9 -8.2 51,238 53,563 60,605 527,267 581,758 -9.4

 New Orders.............................. 48,993 55,085 51,934 -11.1 6.1 -9.4 49,239 55,045 63,529 552,050 637,970 -13.5

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 29,616 31,130 30,152 -4.9 3.2 -9.1 33,324 32,633 43,121 334,752 408,110 -18.0

 New Orders.............................. 29,453 30,827 30,116 -4.5 2.4 -8.9 32,870 32,078 42,646 332,370 405,545 -18.0 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 6,925 7,696 8,130 -10.0 -5.3 -11.5 6,287 7,979 8,060 80,406 81,832 -1.7

 New Orders.............................. 9,400 9,868 7,658 -4.7 28.9 -37.7 6,130 8,764 11,135 105,185 138,317 -24.0

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 4,771 5,200 4,707 -8.3 10.5 -6.8 4,668 5,623 3,275 45,281 32,283 40.3

 New Orders.............................. 5,244 5,835 5,189 -10.1 12.4 -11.8 5,121 5,617 3,246 47,617 29,945 59.0

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 35,720 36,106 36,721 -1.1 -1.7 -2.1 37,446 37,905 39,877 371,105 383,520 -3.2

 New Orders.............................. 35,520 35,828 36,542 -0.9 -2.0 -3.1 37,273 37,733 40,128 370,869 385,125 -3.7

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 74,417 76,682 75,853 -3.0 1.1 -2.9 73,422 82,541 74,117 759,834 734,457 3.5

 New Orders.............................. 73,875 80,048 78,537 -7.7 1.9 -6.0 71,329 82,629 79,581 797,260 801,373 -0.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 65,239 67,497 66,795 -3.3 1.1 -3.3 64,379 72,998 66,620 671,118 658,136 2.0

 New Orders.............................. 65,579 68,024 68,694 -3.6 -1.0 -7.8 62,949 71,087 70,987 706,485 726,647 -2.8

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 61,971 63,524 62,504 -2.4 1.6 -2.1 61,492 68,893 62,147 628,534 612,522 2.6

 New Orders.......................... 60,135 62,648 64,774 -4.0 -3.3 -2.3 60,365 66,963 63,494 641,608 627,583 2.2

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 9,178 9,185 9,058 -0.1 1.4 -0.5 9,043 9,543 7,497 88,716 76,321 16.2

 New Orders.............................. 8,296 12,024 9,843 -31.0 22.2 8.3 8,380 11,542 8,594 90,775 74,726 21.5

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-3(07), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 2004-2007."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct 2008/

2008 2 2008 r 2008 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2008 2 2008 r 2007 2007

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 823,574 828,218 826,529 -0.6 0.2 0.3 808,259 816,449 734,765 10.0

 Total Inventories....................... 341,074 339,698 339,033 0.4 0.2 0.8 342,134 338,643 316,294 8.2

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 352,103 357,402 360,103 -1.5 -0.8 0.0 346,681 352,872 330,114 5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 251,145 251,106 250,253 0.0 0.3 1.0 250,963 249,986 237,248 5.8

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 664,688 668,995 670,708 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 653,226 661,222 589,248 10.9

 Total Inventories....................... 316,425 315,375 314,487 0.3 0.3 0.9 317,382 314,253 293,950 8.0

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 823,574 828,218 826,529 -0.6 0.2 0.3 808,259 816,449 734,765 10.0

 Total Inventories....................... 273,504 272,697 272,575 0.3 0.0 1.0 274,646 271,929 250,446 9.7

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 23,311 26,159 28,359 -10.9 -7.8 -5.8 21,791 25,397 25,486 -14.5

 Total Inventories....................... 34,933 35,166 35,073 -0.7 0.3 3.0 34,644 35,268 30,514 13.5

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 60,927 61,552 61,934 -1.0 -0.6 -0.3 59,790 61,181 58,666 1.9

 Total Inventories....................... 44,797 44,939 44,791 -0.3 0.3 1.0 44,575 44,849 41,555 7.3

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 106,468 107,143 106,787 -0.6 0.3 1.5 104,739 105,068 87,541 19.6

 Total Inventories....................... 54,592 54,570 54,435 0.0 0.2 0.3 54,475 54,191 51,832 5.1

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 124,845 125,023 124,884 -0.1 0.1 0.7 123,905 123,801 120,971 2.4

 Total Inventories....................... 47,352 47,012 46,999 0.7 0.0 1.0 47,951 46,740 45,078 6.4

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 3,594 3,924 3,904 -8.4 0.5 2.1 3,594 3,924 3,495 2.8

 Total Inventories....................... 4,848 5,039 5,031 -3.8 0.2 0.5 4,928 5,021 4,981 -1.1

 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 37,530 37,335 37,768 0.5 -1.1 1.9 37,425 37,038 36,857 1.5

 Total Inventories....................... 9,833 9,661 9,951 1.8 -2.9 3.4 9,977 9,521 9,282 7.5

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 23,834 24,607 24,943 -3.1 -1.3 -1.0 23,571 24,367 23,587 -0.1

 Total Inventories....................... 15,301 15,377 15,262 -0.5 0.8 0.8 15,115 14,918 14,356 5.3

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 471,471 470,816 466,426 0.1 0.9 0.5 461,578 463,577 404,651 14.1

 Total Inventories....................... 89,929 88,592 88,780 1.5 -0.2 0.5 91,171 88,657 79,046 15.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 16,879 17,042 17,345 -1.0 -1.7 -0.2 16,183 16,637 17,868 -9.4

 Total Inventories....................... 22,956 22,904 23,272 0.2 -1.6 -0.8 22,934 22,866 24,681 -7.1 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 311,583 309,108 306,936 0.8 0.7 -0.2 305,394 305,551 253,743 20.4

 Total Inventories....................... 41,706 40,570 40,036 2.8 1.3 2.2 42,714 40,657 31,258 36.6

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 46,940 46,467 45,832 1.0 1.4 1.1 45,638 45,185 39,809 14.6

 Total Inventories....................... 14,300 13,962 14,197 2.4 -1.7 -0.8 14,413 14,035 12,647 14.0

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,718 12,918 13,196 -1.5 -2.1 -1.3 12,885 13,058 13,863 -7.1

 Total Inventories....................... 54,170 54,042 53,693 0.2 0.6 0.2 54,203 54,020 53,913 0.5

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 624,414 624,956 621,590 -0.1 0.5 0.4 612,883 614,976 543,288 12.8

 Total Inventories....................... 160,668 159,231 158,991 0.9 0.2 0.7 161,884 158,539 144,192 12.3

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 482,434 482,094 481,567 0.1 0.1 0.4 474,182 475,612 412,306 15.0

 Total Inventories....................... 141,536 140,348 139,920 0.8 0.3 1.0 142,762 139,662 126,351 13.0

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 204,185 206,021 206,897 -0.9 -0.4 1.1 201,858 202,985 188,083 7.3

 Total Inventories................... 108,841 108,659 108,517 0.2 0.1 0.7 109,255 107,802 103,208 5.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 141,980 142,862 140,023 -0.6 2.0 0.6 138,701 139,364 130,982 5.9

 Total Inventories....................... 19,132 18,883 19,071 1.3 -1.0 -1.2 19,122 18,877 17,841 7.2

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4 

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations), 

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value), and 

inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-in-process, and finished goods). The M3 includes 

approximately 4,300 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous 

companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89 

categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-tomonth changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-tomonth movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the survey show 

that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 61 percent of the shipments estimates at the total 

manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is based on a 

voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,300 reporting units and provide an 

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a 

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,300 companies would 

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a 

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore, 

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are 

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for 

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full report. 

Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made 

later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. 

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.

2009 Release Dates for M3 Survey 

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M. 

November 2008 Dec. 24, 2008 Jan. 6, 2009 

December 2008 Jan. 29, 2009 Feb. 5, 2009 

January 2009 Feb. 26, 2009 Mar. 5, 2009 

February 2009 Mar. 25, 2009 Apr. 2, 2009 

March 2009 Apr. 24, 2009 May 1, 2009 

April 2009 May 28, 2009 Jun. 3, 2009 

May 2009 Jun. 24, 2009 Jul. 2, 2009 

June 2009 Jul. 29, 2009 Aug. 5, 2009 

July 2009 Aug. 26, 2009 Sep. 2, 2009 

August 2009 Sep. 25, 2009 Oct. 2, 2009 

September 2009 Oct. 28, 2009 Nov. 3, 2009 

October 2009 Nov. 25, 2009 Dec. 4, 2009 

November 2009 Dec. 24, 2009