ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE

WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 January 27, 2000
For Questions - Frances Porter or Lee Wentela cB00-15
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4832
M3-1(99)-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
DECEMBER 1999

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $8.4 billion or 4.1 percent to
$212.9 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.0 percent November
increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent. New orders for 1999 are 7.3 percent above 1998.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $7.3 billion or 16.2 percent to $52.3 billion; all component industries
increased, led by aircraft and parts. This is the largest increase since August 1998. Electronic and other electrical
equipment, up six of the last seven months, increased $1.8 billion or 4.6 percent to $41.1 billion. Industrial machinery and
equipment, down six of the last eight months, decreased $1.7 billion or 4.2 percent to $37.4 billion. Primary metals, down
four of the last five months, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $15.3 billion.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in December increased $1.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $205.7 billion, following
a 1.0 percent November increase. This is the seventh increase in the last eight months. Shipments for 1999 are 6.0 percent
above 1998.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 2.7 percent to $49.6 billion; all component industries
increased, led by motor vehicles and parts. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to
$35.9 billion. Primary metals, up seven of the last eight months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $15.6 billion.
Industrial machinery and equipment, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.6 billion or 1.6 percent to $38.3
billion.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in December increased $7.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $508.0
billion, following a 0.1 percent increase in November. This is the sixth consecutive monthly increase and the largest since
January. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up thirteen consecutive months, had the largest increase, $5.3 billion or
6.6 percent to $85.5 billion. Transportation equipment, up for the first time since January, increased $2.7 billion or 1.2
percent to $224.8 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first time since June, decreased $0.9 billion or
1.1 percent to $80.3 billion. Primary metals decreased $0.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $32.0 billion. This is the largest
decrease since January.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in December increased $1.5 billion or 24.5 percent to $7.5
billion. Shipments decreased $0.8 billion or 11.3 percent to $6.3 billion. This is the largest decrease since December 1997.
Unfilled orders increased $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $92.5 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in December increased $4.7 billion or 8.6 percent to
$59.0 billion. This is the largest increase since January. Shipments increased $0.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $55.9 billion.
Unfilled orders increased $3.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $254.2 billion.

This is the largest increase since January. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.5 billion or 3.2 percent to
$49.9 billion; shipments, down four of the last five months, decreased 0.1 percent to $47.7 billion; and unfilled orders, up
four consecutive months, increased $2.2 billion or 2.0 percent to $114.8 billion.

© REVISED NOVEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all manufacturing industries are:

shipments, $364.9 billion (revised from $364.5 billion); new orders, $365.5 billion (revised from $365.2 billion); unfilled
orders, $526.5 billion (revised from $526.6 billion); and total inventories, $469.5 billion (revised from $469.7 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published February 3, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled for February 24,
2000 at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


N

Table |.

DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted

Not seasonally adjusted’

Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Dec, Noy, Oct, | Nov. | Oct Dec, Nov. Dec,
1999 1999' 1999 | Dec? | Nov. 1999? 199% 1998 | Dec.99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments 5,657 | 204,293 | 202,306 +0.7 +10 +0.2 | 208,723 | 203,727 | 198,280 +53
New orders 212'921 04°550 | 202/442 +41 +10 -09 | 214'536 | 200,750 | 196922 +89
Unfilled orders: 2000 | $00,736 | 500/479 +15 +0.1 0.0 | 502'815 | 497,002 | 490,040 126
Excluding defense :
hipments 197,151 | 195,737 10.7] +02] 201461 | 195,994 | 190,694 $5.6
New orders |. | 198's65 | 194.771 +19 21 | 204222 | 194'401 | 186.584 +95
Unfilled orders’ 409/383 | 407,969 403 -02 | 410260 | 4077499 | 394'327 +40
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 169,469 | 168,611 | 167,223 +0.5 +08] +09 | 176449 | 168,671 | 167,916 +51
New orders 176,733 | 168,868 | 167,359 +47 +09 +05 | 182\262 | 165,694 | 166,558 +94
Primary metals :
hipments 15,643 +06 424 14,342 12,997 +103
New orders 15290 “15 +06 “0.1 14.794 13,768 +75
Unfilled orders 31,983 aa “0.1 31,167 281847 +80
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments... 38,323 38,943, 39,471 “1.6 13] +46] 41,626] 36,691 40,163 +3.6
New orders 37437 39,096 | 39,666 42 14] +15 40,117 | 37.489 | 407982 2
Unfilled orders 80.275 81161 81,008 an) 40.2} +02 80.242 | 81751 74.441 78
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 35,884 | 35,593, 34,860 40.8 424 - 40,462 | 36,925 36,962 49.5
New orders 449 | 303331 35,884 +46 +56 -74| 42/891 38,002 | 34'946 +227
Unfilled orders 85.479 | 80.214 | 76.476 +66 149] +14 83212 80.783 37:806 +440
Transportation equipment :
Shipments. 49,617 | 48,296 | 47,659 +27 13 48,087 | 49,458 | 46,660 +31
New orders $2340 | 45037 | 46.800 | +162 38] +04 52,087 | 45,509 | _46,056 +131
Unfilled orders 224/827 | 222:104 | 225363 +12 “14 + 2231894 | 219804 | 242/584 77
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 62,238 | 62,236 0.0 o} +2 72,774 | 60,982 71,017 42.5
rder 66.464 | 60/304 +102 7 3 78312 59,266 71,066 +102
Unfilled orders 346,630 | 342/404 +12 -06 | +03 | 346,330 | 340/801 | 352:795 “18
Nondefense :
Shipments 094 | $6,295 415 +2.6 63,431 +33
New orders 19 | 36291 48.6 +0. 501738 +12.0
Unfilled orders 251,051 | 251;826 +12 0 082 “13
Excluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments - 47,721 47,767 | 48,329 -0 12] 42.0 55,412 45.0
order: 49/948 ¥ 48°89! +32 -10 -0. 37,019 | 47/056 +58
Untitled orders 114.777 | 112;550 | 111,911 +21 +06] +05] 114404 | 112;797 473
Defense :
ments 6,334 6569} -113 $8.7 + 7,733 7,586 43
New orders | 7a54 TON | 4243] 220] 4399 6/349 107338 02
Unfilled orders’! 92473 92/510 | +12 13] +1 89503 | 95,713, 33

(NA) Nox available. * Revised

" Shipments and new orders ate the taal for the period and are adjusted fur trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders ate as ofthe end of the pera) and

x taling-day or valendar-month_ variations

Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers” shipments, inventories. and orders are subject to survey error and revision, One major component of survey eftot is nonsampling error, which inclales errors of coverage,
response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a prohubilty. sample, estimates of sampling error eannot be calculated, Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained incur mest recent annual
wmark publication, Curtent Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, al Orders: 1987-196."
“The Capital Gowns Industries inclule Nondefense : ordnance ad acessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
veral industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, healing and service industry machinery, eletrical Gansiiasion and ditbution equipment, electrical industeial apparatus. communicatn equipment
Complete iraf mss, and space vehicles, srat mss, unl sface vehicle cages ad pars shife an tank compet, raked cypmeet and search an avgaon ee

Defense ea

gues include > ordnance, cimnmunication equipment, aircralt, mussiles. space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Dec. | Dec. 1998-| Year ago Dec. | Dec. 1998-| Year ago Dee. | Dec. 1998-

Dec. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Nov. 1999] Dec. 1998| 1994-1998 | Nov. 1999] Dec. 1998| 1994-1998 | Nov. 1999

Durable goods 0.1 02 1 15 09 09 06 03 05

Primary metals : 04 07 12 1a 14 09 03 oa im

Industrial machinery and equipment 06 06 21 07 06 Ll 05 05 10
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 10 06 Ls 3.1 16 27 10 04 Lt

‘Transportation equipment 04 05 45 36 26 28 08 05 07

Nondefense capital goods on 04 27 17 12 19 03 03 06

Defense capital goods 21 16 3 81 88 10.6 18 07 13

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates, The monthly

for the months specified.

rages are the simple averages of the differences, without re

d to sign



Billions of Dollars
225

Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

215

205

195

185

175 be .

225

New Orders

Shipments

Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec ms
Dec. 1997 - Dec. 1999
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

64 64
New Orders

59f-| Shipments | ---------------------------------- -{59

44 .

44

Jun Oct Dec Feb

1997 - Dec.

Aug
Dec.

Apr
1999

Jun Aug Oct Dec

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.