UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF | ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | ost.

BUREAU OF THE

NEE W'S ussineron,o0. a0 ae

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth March 23, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB94-51
M3-1(94)-02

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 1994
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $3.8 billion or 2.5 percent to $145.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This is the first decline since July and follows a revised 4.4
percent increase in January.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $3.8 billion or 9.2 percent to $37.6 billion, due to aircraft
and parts. This follows four consecutive monthly increases. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders were unchanged.
Following two consecutive monthly increases, electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $1.2 billion or 5.6 percent
to $21.1 billion, as a decline in electronic components more than offset an increase in communications equipment. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up seven of the last eight months, had the largest increase, up $1.2 billion or 4.7 percent to $27.3
billion, with increases in nearly all categories.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in February increased $1.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $146.4 billion, the sixth increase in
the last seven months. Industrial machinery and equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, up $1.4
billion or 5.5 percent to $26.6 billion, with increases in nearly all categories. Primary metals, also up three of the last four
months, increased $0.3 billion or 2.7 percent to $12.1 billion. Transportation equipment, down for the first time since July,
decreased $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $38.8 billion, due to aircraft and parts.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in February decreased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $422.7 billion, the eleventh

decline in the last twelve months. All major groups declined except industrial machinery and equipment and stone, clay, and
lass products. Transportation equipment, down twenty-one of the last twenty-two months, had the largest decrease, down
1.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $214.5 billion, due to aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the eighth
consecutive month, had the largest increase, up $0.6 billion or 1.2 percent to $54.6 billion with increases in nearly all categories.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $2.4 billion or 30.6 percent to $5.4 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This follows
a revised 49.2 percent increase in January and is the fifth decline in the last seven months. Shipments, down three of the last
four months, decreased $0.3 billion or 4.8 percent to $6.9 billion, following a 11.1 percent increase in January. Unfilled orders,
down twelve of the last thirteen months, decreased $1.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $115.5 billion, with decreases in all industry
categories. This is the lowest level since October 1983.

Nondefense - New orders decreased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $36.6 billion, following a 5.0 percent increase in

January. This is the first decline since September. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $1.0 billion or 3.0

ercent to $36.0 billion, following a 5.4 percent decrease in January. Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to

3200.1 billion, the second consecutive increase following six monthly declines in a row. Excluding aircraft and parts, new

orders increased $1.6 billion or 5.3 percent, the eighth increase in the last nine months; shipments increased $1.5 billion or

4.9 percent, the ninth increase in the last ten months; and unfilled orders increased $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent, the ninth
consecutive monthly increase.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators. durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 30, 1994. ‘The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for
April 27, 1994. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)
and through the Census Bureau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog
Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-763-2074) can provide

content information and oeneral midance


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Feb, Jan, Dec, | Jan; | Dec. | Nov.- Feb, Jan, Feb.
1994! 194" 1993 | Feb? | Jan | — Dec. 1994? 1994" 1993 | Feb.94/93
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments . 146,445 | 144,938 | 146,182 | +1.0 09} +425] 145,821 | 127,845 | 132,542] +10.0
New orders 145,013 148:780 | 142/481 25 +44 +20 | 146,185 | 135,866 | 134,067 49.0
Unfilled orders | 422/698 | 424,130 | 420/288 03] +09 -09 | 426012 | 4257648 | 455,596 65
Excluding defens:
Shipment 139,555 | 137,702 | 139,668 | +13 -14] 43.0] 139,257 | 122,036 | 125,177 | +112
New o1 139/592 | 140'964 | 137/242 10 27) +20] 141660 | 128873 | 128565 | +102
Untied orders || 3077153 | 307,116 | 303,854 00) +11 -0:8 | 309;729 | 307,326 | 326,181 50
With unfilled orders :
Shipments .. . : 114,993 | 113,925} 115,276 | +09 12] +21] 112,951 | 99,91 103,863 48.7
‘New orders 113:561 | 117,767 | 111,575 36 | +55 15 | 113315 | 108,005 | 105,388 475
Primary metals :
Shiprnents 12,119 | 11,801 12,045 | 42.7 2.0 1 12,325 | 11,199 | 11,700 453
12:07 12'031 12:068 | +04 03} +19] 12951 12'436 | 12/930
Untied onde x 22651 | 22/421 024) +10 Ol} 23,411 | 22,785 | 23,734 -14
Ingustrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments. . 6,649 | 25,263 | 26,285 | + 39 25,99 21,513 | 22,063 | +178
New orders”: 27281 | 261062 | 26,820 | +47 28| +06] 26993 | 23241 | 22,621 +193
Unfilled orders’: 547597 | 53965 | 53,166 55,703 | 54:706 | 51,726 477
20 | 21,072 | 21,039 | +07 428 | 20,935 | 18,540] 18,137 | +154
21071 | 22310 | 20,703 56] +78] +39} 21550] 20539 | 18328 | +176
Unfilled orders 46.273 6422 | 45,184 03 07] 47052 | 46,437 | 44) +69
Transportation equipment = :

Shipments 38,775 | 39,050 | 38,334 -0. +19] 442] 40,103 | 34,315 | 36,668 49.4
New orders. ° 37558 | 41341 | 35,727 92] +1597] 437 | 38325 | 37,425 | 35,832 +70
Unfilled orders’! 214466 | 215,683 | 213,352 06) +11 -12 | 2147808 | 216,586 | 242,530 4
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?

Total:
Shipments . 42873 | 42,176 | 43,460 | +17 3.0] +26] 41,066] 34819] 37,970 +
47014 | 44,626 | _ 40,298 59 | +10.7] +06 | 40,004 | 38,791 | _37:028 48.0
United orders | 315,601 | 316,460 | 314,010 03] +08 -10 | 317,385 | 318/447 5/240 -
Nondefense :
Shipments 35,983 | 34,940] 36,946] +3.0 54] +46] 34,502 30,605 | +12.7
New orders 36593 | 36,810 | 35,059 06] +50] +05] 35479 | 31,798 | 31,526 | +125
Unfilled orders’: | 200,056 | 199,446 | 197576] +03| +09 -09 | 201,102 215/825 68
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . vents 31226 | 29,775 | 31,289] + 48) +23] 30,008] 25,058] 25,399 | +181
New orders. |): 32204 | 30,585 | 32'867 | -+5:3 69] +57] 31353 07 26,0 +202
Unfilled orders 77685 | 76,707 | _75:897 +t] 42. 787731 | 77386 | 72,102 49.2
Defense :
Shipments. 6,890 7,236 6,514 4g] +d 12 6,564 $,809 1,365
New orders”: 5,421 TB16 5239 | -306| +492] +13 4525 6/993 57502
Unfilled orders 115;545 | 117,014 | 116/434 13} +05 “1 | 116,283 | 118,322 | 129,415

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

"Shipments and new orders are the ttals for the period and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variation

“Bue on advance sample. Exits of marae” shipment and ores ae subj wsuvey varity an eson Sic he ure pare! ta pail, ample, eats of xping varity, cane be alee
Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitation are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Repors: M3-1(92 ane Orders: 1982-1952,
27h Capital Goats nds nde Nodeene; ptm and acess, am engines an nti, nea engines, co ining and mata hang equipment, meaveking ry. special indus
5, peeral ry, computer and office refrigeration, heating and service industry % ‘wansmission and clecrical industrial apparatus,
‘complete stera, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missles, and space vehicle engines and pats, ships and tank aiload ‘and search and ravigation

Tease caplal gots include’ cednance, commungalon equipment, agerah, masies, space Vehcks, and pars, sh, tunis and tank Compose, earch and navigation elpmen

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

lndustry Year ago Feb. | Feb, 1993-| Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1993-] Year ago Feb, | Feb, 1993-

Feb. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Jan. 1994] Feb. 1993 | 1989-1993} Jan. 1994] Feb. 1993] 1989-1993] Jan. 1994

Durable goods . 0.1 02 03 0.0 03 03 0.1 01 Ol

Primary metals 04 0.3 04 08 0.7 0.9 0.7 03 04

Industrial machinery and equipment on 0.3 0.6 08 Ol 0.8 0.8 0.0 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment ...... 04 03 0.6 03 0.5 1d 03 02 03

Transportation equipment .. . 0.6 03 0.6 14 0.7 13 0.1 0.0 01

Nondefense capital goods ... 0.0 04 0.7 0.7 08 Ld 0.1 01 0.1

Defense capital goods . . 0.1 0.6 0.7 34 13 5.6 0.3 01 0.2

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

165 165

New Orders

185 f- -- === 2 eee ee ees Shipments |-] 155

145 145

135 135

125 125

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1992 - Feb. 1994

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45

New Orders
40; ----- +--+ - ee eee eee eee eee ee ee eee

Shipments

40

25 1 1 " 1 mu L 1 1 i. L J. 1 L
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1992 - Feb. 1994

25

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.