Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
Shipments and Three Month

Moving Average

Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars. Billions Of Dollars
155000 155000 160000 160000
155000 ry 155000
150000 150000 n
\
A Maan 150000 f Ly 150000
145000 145000 1
\ 145000 v \ 145000
140000 \ 140000 || 140000 \y \ 140000
vA st som
135000 135000 \ Ne
\ 130000 v 130000
130000 \ 130000 A
V 125000 125000
125000 125000 120000 Vv 120000
2839888555555 R88888855 5555
eeeda -fe5 48 se epeeee eet tas
SEES RES RE SRES SREP 3 SRE E538
— — Shipments Average — = New Orders Average
Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UO/S Ratios
240000 240000 2.9 29
235000 235000
230000 eX 230000 || 2.4 24
225000 fe ¥ \ 225000
\
mua Nd 215000 Cae ae
210000 210000 ie M4
2838888555555 g888 888555558
eeepc zazetruira 264 5S 63 cb gE GB
SSE35 53 85 5358 See F5 FS FE FRESE
— —- Inventories Average —_—— 1/5 uo/s
Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Durable Goods Durable Goods
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
210000 210000 250000 250000
205000 AS 205000 || 240000 i 240000
200000 Wy V Ne 200000 || 230000 | 230000
aN 220000 os ——¥ 220000
195000 195000 \\.
190000 190000 AT Aan
Vv i 200000 P vi] 200000
185000 185000 Wa
LW 190000 V7 he 190000
180000 17 122% || 180000 1 i 180000
175000 ¥ 175000 170000 V 170000
170000 170000 160000, 160000
2888888555555 £888888555555
eet etaste tt gas ee heE8 a
a a aes SRSSSSSREERES
— “== Shipments Average = == New Orders Average
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments.
Billions Of Dollars. VS Ratios UO /S Ratios
315000 315000 47 4,75
4.25 4.25
m\ 3.75 3.75
305000 305000
\ 3.25 3.25
\ 2.75 2.75
295000 + 295000
V \\ 2.25 2.25
\ 1.75 75
285000 285000 1.25 1.25
888888555555 888888 555555
ee a eb e493 6 6 £5 G8
SRSPREFSRESRES SR eeg3 FSR F535 8
— = Inventories Average _—_— 1S uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.



Nondefense Capital Goods
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
75000 75000 85000 85000
72000 72000 || 8°°°° ny 80000
DP 75000 ry _/\ 75000
69000 h 69000 Viv
} \
5000 Vv 66000 V
65000 65000
63000 63000 aN
60000 KK 60000
60000 v4 60000 || 55000 \ /| 55000
57000 57000 || 0000 50000
2888888555555 8888928555555
seeped bE EES OG eoeetas etc gig
SkEFS SSE F335 SSER23 88 85355
— — Shipments ‘Average — — New Orders Average
Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars VS Ratios UO /S Ratios
135000 135000 3S 3.5
5.0 5.0
vy, \ 45 45
130000 130000
4.0 4.0
35 35
3.0 3.0
125000 125000
20 be at 2.0
120000 120000 Ls ws
888888555555 8888888555555
é52¢4 4 esedg ¢ft 543 ¢ 535 43
SEES ERESRES re oe
— = Inventories Average — 1/5 uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


: ECONOMICS
ES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE

HMaKANE

WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 December 28, 2001
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-01-204
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(01)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS! SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
NOVEMBER 2001

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in November, down five of the last six months, decreased $8.8 billion or 4.8
percent to $175.6 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 12.5 percent October
increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Year to date, new orders are 12.6 percent below the same
period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $10.2 billion or 16.9 percent to $50.0 billion, due to defense aircraft and parts;
nondefense aircraft and parts increased $0.8 billion or 17.2 percent to $5.3 billion. Computers and electronic products increased
$0.6 billion or 2.0 percent to $32.6 billion. Machinery increased $0.5 billion or 2.4 percent to $22.6 billion, due to turbines,
generators, and other power transmission equipment.

@ SHIPMENTS of durable goods in November increased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $180.7 billion. This follows a 3.4 percent
October increase. Year to date, shipments are 7.9 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, led by motor vehicles and parts, had the largest increase, $1.8 billion or 3.4 percent to $53.7 billion;
nondefense aircraft and parts increased $0.4 billion or 5.4 percent to $8.6 billion. Machinery decreased $0.5 billion or 2.0 percent
to $23.1 billion. Electrical equipment decreased $0.4 billion or 4.2 percent to $9.7 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for durable goods in November, down ten of the last eleven months, decreased $5.2 billion or 0.9
percent to $551.4 billion. This follows a 0.7 percent October increase.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $3.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $283.3 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts,
down seven consecutive months, decreased $3.2 billion or 2.3 percent to $137.6 billion. Computers and electronic products, down
twelve consecutive months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $126.2 billion. Fabricated metals, down ten of the last eleven
months, decreased $0.7 billion or 1.6 percent to $39.8 billion; this is the largest decrease since November 1993.

@ INVENTORIES for durable goods in November, down ten consecutive months, decreased $3.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $286.7
billion. All durable goods subsectors decreased. Transportation equipment, down six of the last seven months, had the largest
decrease, $1.4 billion or 1.9 percent to $73.0 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts, down for the first time since June, decreased
$0.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $31.3 billion.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in November decreased $13.4 billion or 69.8 percent to $5.8
billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $6.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to
$134.6 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $18.5 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in November increased $2.6 billion or 4.8 percent to $56.9
billion. Shipments, down five of the last six months, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $59.7 billion. Unfilled orders, down
eleven consecutive months, decreased $2.8 billion or 1.1 percent to $249.3 billion. Inventories, down ten consecutive months,
decreased $0.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $123.0 billion.

@ REVISED OCTOBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$329.1 billion (revised from $328.7 billion); new orders, $333.1 billion ( revised from $333.2 billion); unfilled orders, $556.6
billion ( revised from $557.1 billion); and total inventories, $457.7 billion ( revised from $458.7 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods


7
Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars.
55000 55000
48000 48000
an 50000 ral 50000
45000 45000 i
VZa—N wm wom
42000 Fs, 42000
Wz \ 1
40000 40000
39000 \ 39000 \
IN 35000 Ln 35000
36000 \ 36000 OY,

33000 33000 |} 30000 30000
30000 30000 25000 25000
R88888 8555555 8888888555555
SESS ES RR ERE S SSES23 Se EF 3 8
— <= Shipments Average — = New Orders Average
Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UO/S Ratios
65000 65000 45 5.0

4.0 45
4.0
35
60000 60000
/ 35
1 3.0
3.0
25
25
55000 55000
‘\ 2.0
2.0
\ Ms a
50000 50000 1.0 1.0
R288 88 555555 832888 55555 5
—— — inventories Average _—s— Hs —— vos

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted '
‘Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
item Change
Nov Oct Sep Oct; Sep - Aug - Nov Oct Nov lov
2001 ? 2001 ' 2001 Nov? Oct‘ Sep 2001? 2001 ' 2000 | 01/00
174,470) +0.2 43.4 -6.0| 178,993] 184,225] 196,611 -9.0
163/879) 4.8) +125 -9.2] 171,722] 186,301] 199,146} 13.8
125,734) 14 +2.2 -4.5] 124,445] 129,938] 143,885] -13.5
120,605) +0 +29 -6.4] 121/810] 125,695] 141,655} -14.0
Excluding defense:
Shipment: 173,401| 173,132] 166,824 +0.2 +3.8 -6.3| 171,398] 177,091] 189,555 9.6
New Order: 168,630| 164,201] 156,655 42:7 +48 -9.8] 164/894] 167/354] 190,314) -13.4
Primary metals:
11,333] 11,549] 11,309 -1.9) +24 5.4] 10,987] 11,984] 12,466} -11.9
11/023] 10,871) 11094 +14 -2.0| 5.8] 10,634] 10,844] 12,221} -13.0
Fabricated metal products
‘Shipment: 20,152] 20,289] 19,894 0.7| +2.0 -3.2[ 19,891] 21,297] 20,671 3.8
19,488] 19,732] 19,302 “1.2 +2.2 -4.4| 19,053] 20/186] 20/370 “65
Machinery:
‘Shipment: 23,068] 23,529) 22,521 -2.0} 44.5 -8.8] 21,690] 23,156] 23,684) 8.4
New Orders. 080] 22/256 +214 -0.8| 7.4) 21/331] 211659] 23,514 9.3
Computers and electronic products
‘Shipment: 33,307] 33,096] 32,901 +06 +0.6 -1.1] 33,375] 31,969] 45,488] -26.6
32/562] 31,925] 29,305 +2.0 +8.9 -8.5] 31/916} 31/570] 43,602] -26.8.
8,088] 7,917 7,827| 42.2 +14 7,533} —7,257| 10,430 -27.8
8.434] 8/216] 6,920 42:7) +18:7 8,287 7501] 10,971) -24.5
5,845 5,945] 6,121 1.7] -2.9| -6.9| 5,702 5,534] 8,993] -36.6
5,457 5,473 31645] -0:3] +50.2 “38.4 5,385, 5,330] 9,188) -41.4
5,991 6,194] 6,313 -3.3 1.9) 6,363] 6,249] 9,945] -36.0
5.653, 5,52: 6,630 +24 16.7 5,157 6.468] 7/524] -31.5
9,696] 10,118] 9,798 -4.2| +3.3 -8.0| 9,357 9,823] 11,325) -17.4
10,001 9,752 9/334] +26 +45 -10.4] 9,749] 9,601} 11,603} -16.0
Transportation equipment:
Shipments. 53,661] 51,885 48,736 43.4 +6.5 54,548] 54,287] 52,726) +3.5
New Orde 60,227| 43/274 16.9] +39.2| 49,912] 60,606] 57,491] -13.2
Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipment: 37,362| 36,138] 32,370 +34) +116 14.8] 37,907] 39,810] 36,847/ +29
New Orders. 37,281| 35,691] 32;145) +45] +11.0 -15.0] 37/881 7,049] +2.2
Aircraft and parts:
Shipment: 11,303] 10,571{ 11,186 +6.9 5.5 +40] 11,648] 9,309] 10,912] +6.7
New Order: 8,389] 19,923) 6,205 57.9) 221.1 -30.6 7,682] 16,663] 14,112] -45.6
All other durable good:
Shipment: 29,526] 29,914] 29,311 1.3} +24 29,145] 31,703] 30,251 “3.7
New Orders. 29/852| 29,783) 29,314 +0.2 +16 29/127] 31,835] 30,345 4.0
Capital goods: 2°
Shipment: 66,003] 66,336] 65,471 -0.5 +13 -3.9] 64,149] 63,739] 74,751] -14.2
New Orders. 62,635|  73,424/ 57,282 14.7) +282 -11.5] 60,139] 69,445] 78,771] -23.7
Nondefense ca
‘Shipment: 59,653] 59,899] 58,978 -0.4 +16 57,566] 57,418] 68,558] -16.0
New Order 56,856, 54,276] 51,267 +48 +5.9 54,398] 51,004 71,162] -23.6
Defense capital goods:
‘Shipment: 6,350] 6,437] 6,493) 21.4 -0.9] -2.4] 6,583] 6,321 6,193] +63
New Orders. 5.779] 19,148] 6,015, -69.8 218.3} +37 5.741] 18,444 7,609] -24.5

(NA) Not Available" Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and
are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturer’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey eror and revision. One major component of survey enor i
‘nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage, response and nonteporting. Since the survey panel is not a probabi . estimates of sampling orror cannot be calculated.
Further Geta on survey design, methodology. and data lmitations are contained in our most recart annual benchmark publication, Gurrent industrial Reports: M3-1(00),
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2000."

2 ‘The Capital Goods. include Nondefense : small arms and : farm machinery and equipment: construction machinery: mining, oil, and gas field machinery: industrial
machinery; vending, laundry, and other machinery: photographic equipment: metalworking machinery; turbines and generator: other power transmission equipment: pump and
compressors; material handling equipm cher mactinery: lactonic computers; computer storage devices; other computa peripheral equipment: communcatioss

ring, and ‘equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks;
Sita ralvoadrolin stoch ships and boots: office and instiusonalfunre: and medical equipment and supptos,

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, ‘equipment, aircraft; missiles, space and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.



3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Sei Adi :
‘Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Nov Oct Sep Oct - Sep - Aug - Nov Oct Nov Nov
2001? 2001‘ 2001 Nov? Oct ‘ Sep 2001? 2001 ' 2000 =| 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilted Orders. $56,571] 552,581 -0.9 +0.7 -1.9] $41,345] 548,616] 584,723 7.4
Total Inventories 289,904) 291/942! Bn -0.7| 1.2) 287/489] 290/573 : 77
Excluding transportation
Unfilled Orders. 268,131] 269,676] 274,028 0.6} 1.6 -1.8] 264,575] 267,210] 313,100] -15.5
Total inventorie 213,641] 215,473] 217/784 0.9) aa -1.6] 213,260) 214/869] 231/973 8.1
402,881) 411,812! “1.2 -2.2| 2.41 392,931] 399,435] 445,852] -11.9
Total inventor 268,320] 270/649) “1.2 -0: -1.2] | 265/797 , 287,518 76
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders.. 17,431] 17,741] 18,419 1.7 “3.7 1.21 16,400] 16,753] 18,679] -12.2
Total Inventorie 20,048} 20/244] 20,402 -1.0] 0.8 -0.8] 20,015] 20,193] 12.2
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders. 39,806] 40,470] 41,027 “1.6 +14] -1.4) 39,055] 39,893] 42,594] -8.3
Total Inventor 33,189] 33,572] 33/845 Ww -0'8| -0.5] 32,715] 33/264] 36.181 7.0
Machinery:
Untitled Order 57,414] 57,871] 59,320 -0.8| 2.4] 0.4{ 57,122] 57,481] 64,302] -11.2
Total Inventorie: 49,276] 49/593] 50,072, 0.7 -0:9 -0.4| 49/477] 49/630] a “3.2
Computers and electronic products:
Unfilled Order 126,162| 126,907] 128,078) 0.6 -0.9 -2.7| 124,830] 126,289] 154,143] -19.0
Total Inventorie 51,500] 51,997] 52,833 -1.0) “1.6 4:5} 51,744) 51,826] 59,964] -13.7
Computers and related product:
Unfilled Order: 9,850] 9,504] 9,205 +3.6 +3.2 10,244] 9,490) 10,693 -4.2
Total Inventorie 7.998] = 8,167| 8,151 22 40.2 8,212 8,082) 9/549) -14.0
Communications equipment
Unfilled Order: 40,801] 41,189] 41,661 -0.9 14 40,392] 40,709] 49,466] -18.3
Total Inventorie: 9/566 , 9773 +23 43] 9,76: 9,340) 13.241] -26.2
Semiconductors:
Unfilled Order 14,460] 14,798] 15,469 -2.3| 4.3 +2. 14,547] 15,753] 27,408] -46.9
Total Inventories. 7,431 7,540| 7,773 1.4] 3.0} -2:3 1349] 7/418] 7/955) “7.6
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and component
Unfilled Order 16,804} 16,499] 16,865 +18 “2.2 16,641] 16,249] 19,489] -14.6
Total Inventorie: 5; 18,001} 15,017 0.8 0.1 14,783) 14,937 , 5.
Transportation equipment
Unfilled Order: 283,279! 286,895] 278,553 1.3 +3.0 -1.9] 276,770] 281,406] 271,623{  +1.9
Total Inventories. 73,027) “74/4 74,158] -1.9) +0.4] 0.0] 74/229 7 79,426 “6.5
Motor vehicles and par
Unfilled Order 11,841] 11,922] 12,369 0.7 -1.8} 11,380} 11,406] 13,320)
Total Inventories. 20,070] 20,828) 21,086 -3.6| -0.6] 20/169] 20/934} 23/057
Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders 195,650] 198,564] 189,212 1.5 +49 -2.6] 191,860] 195,826} 182,812} +4.9
Total Inventories. 40,947] 41/706] 41/262, 18 +14 +0.2 1942] 42,760] 44,169] -5.0
All other durable good
Unfilled Orders. 10,514] 10,188) 10,319 +3.2 0.0] 10,527] 10,545] 13,893
Total Inventories , 45,060] 45/615 -0.7| -0.6] 44,526] 44/959] 47/305
Capital goods:
ots Orders 383,943] 387,311] 380,223 -0.9 +19 -2.1] 377,182] 381,192] 397,192| —-5.0
Total Inventories. 141,480] 142/168] 143/000 0.5 0.6] -1.6) 143,050] 143/288) 152/932) 6.5,
Nondefense capital good:
Unfilled Orders. 249,346] 252,143 14 -2.9] 246,516] 249,684] 273,906
Total Inventories 122/952] 123,897 -0.8| -1.7] 124,481! 124/874] 133/350
Defense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 134,597] 135,168] 122,457] 0.41 +10.4 9-4) 130.866) 131.508] 123,286) +8.
Total Inventories. 18,538} 18,271] 18,163 +15 +06 1.1] 18,569] 18/414) 19/582] 5.2

See footnotes at ond of Table 1