= — = ECONOMICS
ES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
BUREAU OF THE
WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

For Data - (301) 457-4673 July 27, 2000
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CBO0-123
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(00)-06

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE Goops MA ACTURERS' SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
june

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $22.1 billion or 10.0 percent to $243.2
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 7.0 percent May increase and is
the largest increase since July 1991. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Year-to-date, new orders
are 11.1 percent above the same period a year ago; new orders for the second quarter are 4.3 percent above the first quarter.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $20.8 billion or 43.0 percent to $69.1 billion, mostly due to aircraft and

arts. This is the largest increase on record. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.6 billion or 1.3 percent to
Mai billion. Primary metals increased $0.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $16.1 billion. Electronic and other electrical
equipment, up four of the last five months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $47.1 billion.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in June increased $3.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $218.1 billion, following a 2.6
percent May increase. Year-to-date, shipments are 7.2 percent above the same period a year ago; shipments for the second

quarter are 2.4 percent above the first quarter.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.8 billion or 5.6 percent to $52.7 billion, due to motor vehicles and
parts, and railroad equipment. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $41.1
billion. This is the seventh increase in the tast eight months. Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $16.1
billion. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $42.2 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in June increased $25.1 billion or 4.7 percent to $557.0 billion,
following a 1.2 percent May increase. This is the eleventh increase in the last twelve months and the largest on record.
Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $16.5 billion or 7.3 percent to $243.1 billion, due to aircraft and parts.
This is the largest increase on record. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up seventeen of the last nineteen months,
increased $6.0 billion or 6.1 percent to $104.2 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, up twelve consecutive months,
increased $1.9 billion or 2.2 percent to $88.9 billion. Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $31.5 billion.
This is the first increase since October 1999.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June increased $13.8 billion or 194.1 percent to $20.9
billion. This is the largest increase on record. Shipments increased $0.8 billion or 12.8 percent to $7.0 billion. This is the
largest increase since June 1971. Unfilled orders increased $13.9 billion or 14.7 percent to $108.6 billion. This is the
largest increase on record.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June increased $10.2 billion or 16.8 percent to
$71.1 billion. This is the largest increase since December 1992. Shipments, down for the first time since February,
decreased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $62.4 billion. Unfilled orders, increased $8.7 billion or 3.3 percent to $271.8
billion. This is the largest increase since November 1997. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $4.3 billion or
8.0 percent to $57.9 billion (the largest increase since July 1999); shipments, up four consecutive months, increased $0.8
billion or 1.5 percent to $53.9 billion; and unfilled orders, up ten consecutive months, increased $4.0 billion or 3.3 percent
to $127.0 billion.

@ REVISED MAY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $381.3
billion (revised from $380.1 billion); new orders, $387.9 billion (revised from $385.8 billion); unfilled orders, $558.1
billion (revised from $557.1 billion); and total inventories, $478.9 billion (revised from $478.7 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 3, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for July is scheduled for August 24, 2000 at
80. AM. This report is available on the day of issue through STAT-USA/Internet at www status gov


we

Table |. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
lem Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jung Mas Apr | May; {Ape | Mar June Mai June
20007 2000" 2000 | Jun? ay Apr 20008 2008" 1999 [Jun. 00/99
DURABLE GOODS
Total ;
Shipments gugioe | 3i4g2i | 209.309 | «4s +26 “10 | 239.431 | 213,889 | 219,424 +91
New orders 243161 | 221,043 57 | +100 +70 “5.8 | 257.899 | 216453 | 2091554 +2311
Unfilled orders Sso985 | 331933 | 28571 +47 +12 “0S | 551478 | 533,010 | 490,254 +12:5
Excluding defense :
Shipments 211,080 | 208,592 | 203,022} +12 427 231,750 | 207,888 | 212,690 49.0
New orders 2 213,932 | 201,080 | +39] +64 3341003 | 211782 641 +148
Unfilled orders 437,177 | 431837 | +26 +12 441.436 | 438/283 | 395:866 | +115
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 180,856 | 178,572 | 174379 | +13 +24} +01 | 199.930 | 175,799 | 180,447 +108
New orders 205908 | 184.704 | 171627 | +11 a +77 5.6 | 2181308 | 178363 | 1701577 428.0
Primary metals :
hipments 16,074 15,989 | 15,829] +05 +10 “13 16,907 | 16331 15,501 +911
New orders 16,136 | 151882 15737 | +16] +09 “10 | 16348] 15641) 15.295 +6.9
Unfilled orders |. 31460 | 31398 | 313505 “03 “0.3 | 31/444] 32}003 | 30,683 42.5
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 42,235 | 42,447 | 42,763 05 0.7] +37} $0,075 44,097 | +13.6
New orders : : 44148 | 43576 | 43632 | +13 01} +36] 50795 42,284 420.1
Unfilled orders 88,894 | 86581 | 85852] 422] 413] +10 925 77,409 | +136
and other
equipment :
Shipments 4110s | 40,423 | 38,980 | +171 43.717 0405] 45,077] 38,756 | 37380] +206
New orders os : 47,076 | 46946 | 36:861 +03] 4274] 176 | 45591 | 44036 | 35607 | +280
Unfilled orders!!! 104171 | 98,200 | 91677 } 46.1 471 23] 98188 | 97.674 | 631193 +554
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 52,690 | 49.917} 46614 | 45.6] +71 45] 56300]  sioi4 | 52,128 +8.0
New orders Goat | 48348 | 45200 | +430] +68 63 | 74139 | 481127 | _47'846 +550
Unfilled orders 243,126 | 2261675 | 2281244 | +73 “0.7 06 | 244.355 | 226/516 | 231774 +4
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?!
Votal :
Shipments 69,395 | 68,759 | 66,725 | +09 23.0] +23] 80,736 | 66,034 | 70,293 +149
New orders 91968 | 67957 | 67.016 | +353] +14] +06 | 103'543 | 631049 | 641033 +617
Untilled orders 380,436 | 357.863 | 358.665 | +63 0.2} +01 | 381063 | 358:256 | 3461353 +10.0
Nondefense :
Shipments 62,366 | 62,530 | 60,438 03 +35] 4321 73.0539 | 60,033 | 63,359 +149
New orders 71,0385 | 60,846 | 61.509 | +168 1] +19} g0is47 | 58378 | _30'130 $36.2
Unfilled orders 271.796 | 263.107 | 264.791 +33 -0.6 | +04 | 271021 | 2637529 | 251965 376
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments 53,943 | $3,121 52,686 | +15 +08} +12] 63,811 30,366 | 54.986 | +160
New orders 571943 | 531667 | 54439 | +80 14] +26 | 66614 | S04T 52)152 427.7
Unfilled orders 126,978 | 122978 | 1221432 | +33 +04} +15} 126.203 | 123;400 | 109292 +155
Delense :
Shipments 7.029 6.229 6.287 | +128 “0.9 54 2.681 6.001 6.734 4d
New orders wors Tt S507 | iva | aot | 132 | 27°996 4.671 4913 | +368.1
Unfilled orders 108640 | 94.756 | 938A | 4147 09 “08 | 110042 | 942727 | 94°388 +166
NAV Not aval Kevned

" Shvpments and new orders are the totals tor the pera and ate adusted tor tradiy-day an calemlursmoh vatations; unbilied oeets areas of the end othe peti and ate tok abused tor eadingey ur ealearsmoneh vata

Fayed on advance sample Estimates of manufacturers” shipments, inventor borders afe subject survey etrar and revision,
Fesponse and noneeportiny, Sime the survey panel isnot probability sample, est 1 sampling error cannot be calculated Further
Fpenclmark publication, Current Industrial Reports M3-1(96), “Manataeturets” Shipments, Inventiies, and Orders 1987-1996
The Capital Gonds Industries include Nomdeterse nance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engi nf material handliog eyeipment
‘nchinery, general industrial machinery, computer and ollie equipment, refriger mun thao
omplete aircratt, missiles, and space vehicles, ainoratt missiles, afd space vehicle engines and parts. shipn and tank component ment. and Search and on equipment
Deteme capital gods incladeiednance," communica cyuipment, afeatt, missiles, space vehicles, ad pans, ships. tanks and tank cumpanenta, scasch and navigeion eames

major ¥omponent of survey error is nonsampling. error, which includes errors of coverage
ils on survey design, methiailogy, and data limitations afe contained an out Ment seeerh tal

ct¥. spect induntry
ication euyunen

jworkimg ac
apparatus, ay

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago June | June 1999-]~ Year ago June | June 1999-1 Year ago Tune | June 1999-
June 1999 | 1995-1999 | May 2000 | June 1999] 1995-1999 | May 2000] June 1999] 1995-1999] May 2000

Durable Boods 06 oF 14 02 09 28 tl O3 Wo
03 Os Ll 27 1s ey 16 16 Il

inery and equipment 10 24 32 1s 7 27 2 08 os

Pectronie and other

cl il equipment 09 18 10 14 38 x2 13 U9 pal
Fansport ation equipment 29 29 ot 16 14 oF 16 03 is
Nondetfense capital goods 17 2h 27 od 09 40 Ll 03 Os
Detense capital goods 91 36 52 97 92 38 i 04 Le

Note the vevisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates The monthly averawes are the simple averaves of the differences. wishes