U.S. Department of Commerce

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS FIRST-CLASS MAIL

Washington, D.C. 20233 POSTAGE & FEES PAID
CENSUS

Official Business PERMIT No. G-58

Penalty for Private Use, $300

PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1997 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report Regular Report

Report Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1996 Wed., Jan. 29 Wed., Feb. 5
January 1997 Thurs., Feb. 27 Thurs., Mar 6
February 1997 Wed., March 26 Wed., Apr. 2
March 1997 Tue., Apr. 29 Tues., May 6
April 1997 Wed., May 28 Wed., June 4
May 1997 Wed., June 25 Wed., July 2
June 1997 Fri., July 25 Fri., Aug. 1
July 1997 Tue., Aug. 26 Thurs., Set. 4
August 1997 Thurs., Sept. 25 Thurs., Oct. 2
September 1997 Wed., Oct 29 Wed., Nov. 5
October 1997 Wed., Nov. 26 10:00 AM Fri., Dec. 5

November 1997 Tue., Dec. 23 10:00 AM Tues., Jan 6, 1998



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | «iktrs..
N =—=WwS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 PON CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 January 29, 1997
For Questions -'Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97-18
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(96)-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
December 1996
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $2.9 billion or 1.7 percent to $169.0 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today, This follows a 1.7 percent November decrease and is the seventh
decrease this year. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.2 percent, following a 2.6 percent November decrease. New
orders for 1 are 5.5 percent above 1995.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $3.5 billion or 12.5 percent to $24.5 billion, mostly due to
communication equipment and electronic components. This follows a 10.2 percent November decrease. Industrial machinery and
equipment, up for the first month since July, increased $0.5 billion or 1.5 percent to $32.0 billion. ‘This follows a 0.9 percent
November decrease. Primary metals, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.3 billion or 2.2 percent to $14.7 billion,
following a 0.6 percent November increase. Transportation equipment increased slightly to $42.0 billion, as increases in shipbuilding
and tanks and railroad equipment more than offset decreases in motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in December, down two of the last three months, decreased $1.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $168.8
billion, following a 0.8 percent November increase. Shipments for 1996 are 4.5 percent above 1995.

Transportation equipment, down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 1.9 percent to $38.4 billion, as
a large decrease in motor vehicles and parts more than offset an increase in aircraft and parts. This follows a 1.0 percent November
increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $28.2 billion, the first decrease since July.
Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month since September, increased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $32.2 billion,
following a 0.3 percent November decrease. Primary metals, up for the third consecutive month, increased 0.3 percent to $15.2 billion,
following a 0.9 percent November increase.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in December increased $0.2 billion to $488.9 billion. This follows a 0.3
percent November increase and is the seventh increase in the last eight months.

Transportation equipment, up seven of the last eight months, increased $3.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $253.0 billion; all component
industries except motor vehicles and parts increased. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the second consecutive month,
declined $3.6 billion or 6.9 percent to $48.9 billion, following a 0.7 percent November decrease. Primary metals, down for the fourth
consecutive month, decreased $0.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $29.8 billion, following a 2.3 pegeent November decrease. Industrial
machinery and equipment, down for the fourth consecutive month, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $72.2 billion, following a
0.4 percent November decrease.

° CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in December decreased $0.4 billion or 4.7 percent to $8.3 billion, the
first decline since July. This follows a 62.1 percent November increase. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased 0.1

ercent to $6.2 billion, following a 9.2 percent November increase. Unfilled orders, up for the second consecutive month, increased
Cant billion or 1.9 percent to $110.4 billion, following a 2.4 percent November increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in December decreased $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $43.7
billion, following a 7.5 percent November decrease. This is the third consecutive monthly decline. Shipments increased $0.6 billion
or 1.4 percent to $44.6 billion. This follows a 1.9 percent November increase and is the fourth increase in the last five months.
Unfilled orders, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.9 billion or 0.3 percent to $250.5 billion. Excluding aircraft
and parts, new orders decreased $1.0 billion or 2.8 percent to $36.5 billion, the second consecutive monthly decrease; shipments
increased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $38.3 billion, the fourth increase in the last five months; unfilled orders decreased $1.8 billion
or 1.8 percent to $95.9 billion, the fourth decline in the last five months.

@ REVISED NOVEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all manufacturi ne industries are: shipments,
$317.5 billion (revised from $318.3); new orders, $319.9 billion (revised from $320.5 billion); unfilled orders, $514.0 billion (revised
from $513.8 billion); and total inventories, $439.8 billion (revised from $439.9 billion).

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1997 RELEASE DATES)
Our internet address is http://www.census. gov/ttp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published February 5, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled for February 27, 1997. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Dee, Nov. Oct, | Nov; } Oct- | Sept Dec, Nov, Dec.
1996 1996! 1996 | Dec? | Nov. ct. 1996 1996" 1995 | Dec.96/95
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments 168,769 | 170,151 | 168,824 08 170,393 | 171,240 | 163,554 +42
New orders 168987 | 171841 | 174900 “17 “17 170945 | 171/548 | 169750 407
Unfilled orders 488°911 | 488,693 | 487/003 0.0 484,699 | 484147 | 451,715 473
Excluding defens
Shipments. . 162,568 | 163,956 | 163,152 40.5 - 163,093 | 164,818 | 156,504 +42
New orders 2222222222222) ] 160694 | 163;138 | 1691531 “15 38] +06 | 159.5 162'860 | 160,344 -05
Unfilled orders 222002220222 378,506 | 380;380 | 381,198 x 0. 374443 | 3781036 8,604
With unfilled orders :
Shipments... oo.se.] 138,524 | 138,738 | 136,833 02] +14] -05} 144,070] 139,701 | 137,516 +48
New orders 2220222: 138:742 | 140,428 | 142/909 12 “17 | +146 | 1445622 | 140,009 | 143,712 +06
Primary metals :
shipments. . 15,158] 15110} 14969] +03] +09} 413] 14122] 14,925] 13,909
New orders 022202220 222002 14,721 aan 14330} 422] +06] -20] 14476] 14129 | 14'856 26
Unfilled orders 29,792 | 30,229 | 30,928 14 23| 20 | 28'844 | 28490 | 281275 0
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . . cevsees] 32,218 | 31,845] 31,933 12 - 35,410 | 30,709 | 33,777
New orders : 327028 | 31544. | 31839 | +15 09 4| 34446 | 31191 | 32:42 +62
Unfilled orders : 122: aan | 72.713 3 “0. -0.1| 722229 | 731193 | 70;S64
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments boven 28,151 | 28,406 | 27,600 09] +29] +15] 30,920] 29,469] 28,996 +66
New orders |) : 24548 | 28039 | 31216 | -125 | 10.2 | +172 | 26037 | 28,320 | 27,547 35
Unfilled orders 481859 | 52'462 | 32/829 69 07] +73 | 47/502 | 52385 | 48,985 =
Transportation equipment :
Shipments... 2.0... a 38,389 | 39,135 | 38,755 19} +10] - 37,726 | 40,044 | 36,882 423
New orders L 42001 | 41/999 | 41'596 oo} +10} 68 2'828 | 42\660 | 44:541 38
Unfilled orders 222222222222... ] 2821977 | 249/365 | 2463501 | +14 | +12 292341 | 247239 | 2217161 +141
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total =
Shipments . 50,761 | 50,123 | 48,798} +13] +27 2.7} 60,368 | 49,630 | $6,527
New orders’ | 111: : 51983 | 52/604 | 52:85! “12 -05| +02 | 62685 | 52.371 | 63,495 “13
Unfilled orders || |) : 360,922 | 359,700 | 357,219 o7) + 360,302 | 357985 | 330/285
Nondefense :
Shipments... . 44560 | 43,928] 43,126 | +14] +19] 22] 53,068 | 43,208 | 49,477 13
New orders 2222.02.02 437690 | 43/901 | 47.482 05 “75 “01 | 31240 : 54.089 -53
Unfilled orders’ | Lill] asosi7 | 231387 | 2siara 03 00) +18 | 250/046 | 251:874 | 227,174 | +101
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . 38,348 | 38,105 | 37,528] +06] +15 23] 44,818] 37,452 | 42,832 +4.6
New orders 36347 | 371590 | 38,425 28 22) +20] 42/059} 37.430 | 41337 +7
Unfilled ordei 95917 | 97,718 | 98233 “18 05] +09 | 951446 | 98,205 | 95,324 +011
Defense :
Shipments oe 6,201 6,195 $672 | +01 | +92 68 7,300 6,422 7,050 +35
New orders”. 2! ut 8/293 8,703 53369 47] +621} 423) 11445 8.688 9406 | +217
Unfilled orders 22.2221. 110/405 | 108313 | 105808 | +19 | +24] 03 | 110,256} 106111 | 103,111 +69

(NA) Not available," Revised.

"Shipments and new onders ate the (tals for the pera and are adjusted for tading-day and ealendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for tading-day or calendar-month vaitic

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling etror, which includes erars of eovera
esponse and nonrepoting. Since the survey pave! is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannes be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, ad data limsatons are cotsined in our most recent a
tenchmark publication, “Curren Industrial Repors; M3-I(95), “Manufactures” Shpmeats, Inventories, and Orders. 1982-1995."

“The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, constriction mining and materia handing equipment, metalworking machinery. special indu
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, retrgeraion, heating and service industy machinery, eleeUeal Vansmisson and dstibuion equipment, electrical industrial appara, communication equip:
Complete aera, missiles, and space vehicle, aircraft missiles, and space Vehicle engies and pars, ships and tank componens, ralroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

‘Defense capital goods inchide "ordnance, communicaon equipment, aicraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships. tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Dec. | Dec. 1995- | Year ago Dec.] Dec. 1995-| Year ago Dec. ] Dec. 1995

Dec. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Nov. 1996 | Dec. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Nov. 1996| Dec. 1995] 1991-1995 | Nov. 199¢

Durable goods.............. 02 05 0. 18 06 06 0.7 02 01

Primary metals . : : 03 09 04 on 09 08 02 oa 0x

Industrial machinery and equipment . . 06 06 07 02 08 1.0 01 03 0:
Electronic and other

electrical equipment ..... 0.2.2... 1 05 06 02 09 09 0.0 03 ox

‘Transportation equipment a 04 09 06 79 3.0 19 16 04 02

Nondefense capital goods 04 07 06 3.5 14 13 08 03 0:

Defense capital goods. 27 LS 12 316 0.1 16 14 05 os

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regar



Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
190 190
New Orders
180 --------------+-------------------4 Shipments |-| 180

170

160

150 ----- +22 22222222222 eee eee --------------4 150

140 L 1 L ia 1 L il L 1 1 1 1 1 140
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Der

Dec. 1994 - Dec. 1996

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

53F------------ +--+ - ee ee eee ee ee ee eee New Orders |-] 53

Shipments

48

+ 48

33 bu L n 1 L L L 1 n L L n n

33
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1994 -Dec. 1996

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.