U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration POSTAGE & FEES PF
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU. U.S. Census Bureat
Washington, DC 20233 Permit No, G-58

OFFICIAL BUSINESS
Penalty for Private Use, $300

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)
Survey

Loe, bel tattd RAR ANYT oh eies! ws ‘ PLY a Nites oC RAR ey

RELEASE DATES FOR 2000/2001

REPORT ADVANCE REPORT, REGULAR REPORT
COVERING (8: :30 a.m. release time) | _ 0: 00 a.m. release time)
| November 2000 Dec. 22, 2000 -Jan.4,2001
[December 2000 Jan. 26, 2001  Feb.2,2001.
January 2001 | ~~ Feb.27,2001 ~ Mar. 6, 2001
February 2001 | Mar. 27, 2001 Apr. 3, 2001 a
& March 2001 Apr. 25, 2001 May 2, 2001 7
“April 2001 May 25, 2001@ 10:00 | Jun. 5, 2001
“| May 2001 Jun. 26, 2001 _ Jul. 3, 2001
June 2001 | Jul. 26,2001 ~Aug.2,2001
July 2001 [ Aug. 24,2001 Aug. 31,2001
"August 2001 — Sep.27,2001 (et. 4, 2001
| September 2001 | = Oct.25,20010 “Nov. 2, 2001
| October 2001 “Nov.29,2001 “Dec.6,2001

November 2001 ~ Dec. 28, 2001
TT a TTS LTTE 2 GT AE AEDES IG NE DSR,


= ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION
—— o_o ee
RE = BrezZ BUREAU OF THE
=i = WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 November 28, 2000
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-00-203
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(00)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
October 2000

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $12.1 billion or 5.5 percent to $209.0
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.4 percent September increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.2 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 8.3 percent above the same period
a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $8.4 billion or 15.8 percent to $44.9 billion, mostly due to aircraft and
parts. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $4.3 billion or 9.9 percent to $39.1 billion, mostly due to
electronic components. Primary metals decreased $0.5 billion or 3.2 percent to $15.3 billion; this is the largest decrease
since December 1998. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.8 billion or 1.8 percent to $44.2 billion.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in October decreased $1.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $212.4 billion, following a
0.1 percent September increase. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.2 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $2.3 billion or 4.7 percent to $46.3 billion, mostly due to aircraft and
pants and motor vehicles and parts. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $41.4
illion. Primary metals, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $15.5 billion. Industrial

machinery and equipment increased $0.8 billion or 1.9 percent to $44.0 billion.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in October decreased $3.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $559.3
billion, following a 1.2 percent September increase. This is the largest decrease since June 1999. Electronic and other
electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $2.2 billion or 2.2 percent to $99.9 billion, mostly due to electronic
components. Transportation equipment, led by aircraft and parts, decreased $1.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $247.6 billion.
Primary metals, down eleven of the last twelve months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $30.3 billion. Industrial
machinery and equipment increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $92.4 billion. This is the sixteenth consecutive increase.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October increased $0.8 billion or 13.1 percent to $6.8
billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $6.2 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.5
percent to $109.3 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in October decreased $7.8 billion or 11.3 percent to
$60.7 billion. Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $62.4 billion. Unfilled orders, down for the test time
since May, decreased. $1.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $279.8 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.3
billion or 0.5 percent to $55.3 billion; shipments, up seven of the last eight months, increased $0.7 billion or 1.4 percent to
$55.0 billion; and unfilled orders, up fourteen consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $131.1 billion.

@ REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September fi; ures for all manufacturing industries are:

shipments, $380.2 billion (revised from $380.4 billion); new orders, $387.2 billion (revised from $388.6 billion); unfilled
orders, $588.2 billion (revised from $589.4 billion); and total inventories, $488.5 billion (unrevised).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers” shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published December 5. 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance renart an durable annds for Navamher ic echadulad fre


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

{Millions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly. Percent
Item Change
Oct Sep Aug Sep - ‘Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Oct
2000? 2000‘ 2000 Oct? Sep‘ Aug 2000 ? 2000' 1999 00/99
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 212,435] 214,194] 214,018 0.8 +04 214,950] 233,536] 206,861] +3.9
New Orders. 209/003] 221,068] 215,860 5.5 42.4 +2.91 213,844 236,290] 210.891] 41.4
Unfilled Orde 559,337| 562,763] 555,889) 0.6 +12 558/534) 559,640] 499,979] +11.7
Excluding defense:
Shipments 206,190] 207,835} 207,765) 0.8 0.0 +1.1] 208,752] 226,777] 200,330] +4.2/
New Orders. 202/190] 215,039] 208,554 -6.0 +31 42.3) 207/442) 229/913} 2021853] +2.3
Unfilled Orders. 450,082] 454,082) 4: -0.9 +16 +0.2] 450,603] 451,913) 409,092] +10.1
With unfilled orders
Shipments. 178,247| 179,055] 179,956 0.5 0.5 +14) 178.835] 196.964) 168,995) +5.7
New Orders. 174,821] 185,929] 181,798 -6.0 +23 +3.7| 177,428) 199,118] 172,965] +26
Primary metals:
Shipments 18,825] 15,735] 15.842 0.7 0.5| 15,779] 16,240] 15,539] +1.5
New Orders. 15,262] 15,760] 15,430) 42.41 4.1] 141847] 15.684) 15,049 “1.3
Unfilled Orde 30,320] 30,583] 30,558 +01 13 29:761| 30,704 6.1
Industrial machinery and equipmer
Shipments 44,036] 43,222] 43.617 +19] 0.9 1.3] 42,735] 47,813] 38,305] +11.6
New Orders. 44,177) 43.416| 45.623 +18] 4.8 -0:4] 43/395} 47/579] 39,045] +111
Unfilled Orders 92/436] 92,295] 92,101 +0.2| +0.2 +2:2) 92/093] 91,433] 80,953} +13.8
41,364] 41,691] 41,176 0.8 +13 +1.0} 40,573] 47,903] 34,795] +16.6
New Orders. 39/143] 43,422] 39,858 2.9 +89 44:5] 41/927] 48/162] 40,323] +4.0
Unfilled Orders. 99/867] 102,088] 100,357 -2.2 417 -1:3| 102,640] 101,292] 79,706] +28.8
Transportation equipment:
Shipments. 46,318] 48,605] 47,649 4.7 +2.0 +2.1] 48,769] 52,255] 51,055 45
New Orders. 44,948] 53,389] 49,441 15.8 +80 +7.1| 46,552 ‘ 49,951 68
Unfilled Orde 247,613] 248,983] 244,199 -0.6 0 +0.7| 246/465] 248,682] 223,753] +10.2
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES *
Total:
Shipments 68,638} 69,135] 69,085 0.7 +0.1 +2.6) 65,647| 78,228] 60,512|  +8.5
New Orders. : 74554] 72,299 9.4 43.1 +5.7| 64,7101 82,940] 62.479] +3.6
Unfilled Orders 389,087| 390,158] 384,739 0.3 +14 +0.8| 387,329] 388,266] 342,517) +13.1
Nondefense:
Shipments 62,393] 62,776] 62,832 0.6 0 4] 59,449] 71,469] 53,981] +10.1
New Orders. ‘ 68.525| 64,993 113 +54 44.4] 58,308] 76,563] 54.441] 47.1
Unfilled Orders 279,832| 281.477] 275.728 0.6 424 279/398] 280,539] 251,630] +11.0
Excluding aircraft and parts: 5
Shipments.. 54,980] 54,243] 53,962 +1.4] +0.5 0.0] 52,664) 62,008] 46,414) +13.5
New Order: 5 55,604] 54,801 0.5 +15) 1:3} 53/535] 62,714) 47,440] +128
Unfilled Orders. 131,113] 130,746] 129,385 +0.3) +14 +0.7] 130,679] 129,808] 111/715] +17.0
Defense:
Shipments 6,245) 6,359 “1.8 +17 4.5) 6,198 6,759] 6,531 5.1
New Orde 6,819 6,029 5: 308 413.1 175) +20.0 6,402 6.377 8,038] -20.4
Unfilled Ord 109,255] 108,681] 109,0 +05 0.3 +1.0] 107,931] 107,727| 90,887] +188

(NA) Not Available * Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are
not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

? Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments. inventories, and orders are subject to survey ertor a
or, which includes errors of coverage, response and nionrey Since the survey. panel is not @ probabi

on survey design, methodology, and data limi are contained iy our most recent annual benctwnark publ

"Manufacturers" Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-199

> The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling
‘equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery,
‘electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space Vehicles, aireraft missiles, and
space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Detense Capital Goods include + ordnance, communication equipment. aitcraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

revision. One major component of survey error is
iple, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.
tion, Current industrial Reports: M3-1(97),

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on Seasonally Adjusted Data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago| Oct. Oct. 1999- Year ago| Oct.] Oct. 1999- Year ago] Oct.] Oct. 1999-

Oct, 1999] 1995-1999] Sep. 2000] Oct. 1999] 1995-1999] Sep. 2000) Oct. 1999] 1995-1999} Sep. 2000)

Durable Goods. 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 08 0.5 0.2 0.3

Primary metals 0.0} 0.2) 0.3) 0.6! 05 1.0 05) 03 0.4]

Industrial machinery and equipment.. 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.3) 0.9 1.2 0.0 0.2' 0.4
Electronic and other

electrical equipment. 0.2) 0.4 05 7.9 3.2 2.4 2.1 1.4 0.9!

Transportation equipment.. 0.7 0.6 0.9 3.0 1.2 2.4 0.3 0.1 0.3,

Nondefense capital goods. Ww 0.7 0.9 05 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.2

Defense capital goods... 18 0.9] 15 14.2 40) 99 on 0.2 05

Ninta: ‘The ravieinne are the differences hatwean the manth-tn-manth nercant chanaes af the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the



Billions of Dollars
230

Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

New Orders
220

Shipments

210

200

190

180 :

230

220

210

200

190

Billions of Dollars
67

Feb

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb = Apr Aug
Oct. 1998 - Oct. 2000

Jun Oct

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

180

New Orders

62 F | Shipments

47

67

62

Oct

Feb

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

Oct. 1998 - Oct. 2000

Apr Jun Aug

47

Oct

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.