U.S. Department of Commerce
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Washington, D.C. 20233

Official Business
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FIRST-CLASS MAIL
POSTAGE & FEES PAID
CENSUS
PERMIT No. G-58

PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1996 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES,

AND ORDERS

Report
Covering

(8:30 a.m. release time)

Advance Report
Release Dates
(10:00

Regular Report
Release Dates
a.m. release time)

February 1996
March 1996
April 1996
May 1996

June 1996

July 1996
August 1996
September 1996
October 1996

November 1996

Wed., Mar. 27

Wed., Apr. 24

Fri., May 24

Wed., June 26

Thurs., July 25

Fri., Aug. 23

Thurs., Sept. 26

Fri., Oct 25

Wed., Nov. 27 (10:00 AM)

Fri., Dec. 27

Wed., Apr. 3
Thurs, May 2
Tues., June 4
Wed., July 3
Fri., Aug. 2
Fri., Aug. 30
Thurs., Oct. 3
Fri., Nov. 1
Fri., Dec. 6

Tues., Jan 7, 1997



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | witertio,

z EVV/S BUREAU OF THE
== 2 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela March 27, 1996
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB96-45
M3-1(96)-2

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 1996
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $4.2 billion or 2.5 percent to $165.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.6 percent revised January decline and a 3.1 percent
December increase and is the fourth decline in the last five months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased $0.8 billion or 0.7
percent to $126.7 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase. Year-to-date new orders are 1.9 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, down for the second consecutive month, had the largest decline, $5.0 billion or 11.6 percent to $38.3 billion,
due to aircraft and parts and shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 3.0 percent January decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment,
down three of the last four months, decreased $0.3 billion or 1,1 percent to $27.1 billion, following a 0.6 percent January decline,
Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 2.8 percent to $33.6 billion. This follows a 2.9 percent January
increase and is the third increase in the last four months. Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $14.5 billion, following
a 2.8 percent January decrease. This is the first increase since October.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in February increased $2.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $164.2 billion, following a 2.3 percent
January decrease. This is the third increase in the last four months. Year-to-date shipments are 1.3 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 2.8 percent to $38.4 billion; all industry
components increased. This follows a 4.1 percent January decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.8 billion or 2.6
percent to $32.9 billion, following a 1.6 percent January decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up three of the last four
months, increased $0.6 billion or 2.3 percent to $27.6 billion, following a 4.5 percent January decrease. Primary metals, down for the
fifth consecutive month, decreased $0.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $14.3 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in February increased $0.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $451.9 billion. This
follows a 1.6 percent January increase and is the sixth consecutive monthly increase.

Industrial machinery and equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $0.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $74.2 billion.
This follows a 0.9 percent January increase. Primary metals, up six of the last seven months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $28.7
billion, following a 0.1 percent January decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased
$0.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $54.4 billion, following a 0.7 percent January increase. Transportation equipment decreased $0.1 billion or
0.1 percent to $211.4 billion. This follows a 2.9 percent January increase and is the first decline since October.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in February decreased $2.0 billion or 26.5 percent to $5.6 billion, following
a 5.8 percent January increase. This is the first decline since November. Shipments, up two of the last three months, increased 0.4 percent
to $6.3 billion, following a 1.0 percent January decrease. Unfilled orders, down for the first month since November, decreased $0.7 billion
or 0.7 percent to $108.4 billion, following a 1.2 percent January increase.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in February decreased $1.6 billion or 3.4 percent to $46.0 billion,
following a 2.2 percent January decrease. Shipments increased $2.2 billion or 5.2 percent to $43.8 billion. This follows a 6.8 percent
January decline and is the third increase in last four months. Unfilled orders increased $2.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $221.0 billion, the
sixth consecutive monthly increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.4 billion or 3.7 percent to $40.4 billion, the third
increase in the last four months; shipments increased $1.7 billion or 4.5 percent to $39.3 billion, following a 5.4 percent January decrease;
unfilled orders increased $1.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $100.8 billion, the fifth increase in the last six months.

®@ REVISED JANUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted January figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $302.2
billion (revised from $303.2 billion); new orders, $309.6 billion (revised from $311.1 billion); unfilled orders, $474.4 billion (revised from
$474.9 billion); and total inventories, $421.4 billion (revised from $421.5 billion).

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1996 RELEASE DATES)

OUR PRESS RELEASE INTERNET ADDRESS: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published April 3, 1996. The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for April 24, 1996. This report is available
‘on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online information
service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted

Not seasonally adjusted"

Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Feb, Jan, Dec. Dec.- | Nov Feb, Jan, Feb.
1996 1996" 1995 Jan | Dec. 1996? 1996" 1995 | Feb.96/95
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments. 164,220 | 162,104 | 165,946 23} +406] 164,801 | 143,441 | 160,976 424
New orders 164983 | 169,159 | 170,234 -06 | +31 | 167,263 | 156;846 | 164,850 +15
Unfilled ordei 451896 | 451,133 | 444,078 16] +10 | 455/326 | 452/864 | 439/803 43.5
Excluding defen:
Shipments. 157,899 | 155,807 | 159,587 4] +05 | 158,709 | 138,254} 154,618
New orders "2 159408 | 161,578 | 163,070 -09] 420 | 162077 | 149/975 | 158,787 421
Unfilled orders’ | | 343,537 | 342/028 | 336,257 17] +10 | 346,263 | 342/895 | 327/298
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. . 132,422 | 130,386 | 134,195 28] +409] 130,452 | 114,582 | 125,667 43.8
New orders 133,185 | 1377441 | 138/483 “08 | +40 | 132/914 | 127°987 | 1291541 426
Primary metals =
Shipments . . 14277] 14,424 | 14,590 -l 14,621 13,715 | 15,456 54
New orders | |? 4455 | 14382 | 14'800 “1 15564 | 15,113 | 16,223 4
Unfilled orders’: 28,674 | 28/496 | 28/538 +0: 297823 | 28/880 | 30/319 “16
Industrial machinery and equipments
hipments . 32,870 | 32,024 | 32,536 16] +19] 32335] 26862 | 29,401 | +100
New orders 33,601 21696 | 31,767 +29] 26 3,304 | 28,741 | 30,817 48.1
Unfilled orders: 74160 | 73,429 | 72,757 +09] -10} 757250 4,281 | 71,232 45.6
Electronic and other
electrical “<wnmen :
27,629 | 27,013 | 28,300 +17] 26,737 | 23,582 | 23,889 | +119
7,098 | 27,393 | 27/549 +56 | 26,298 | 26,146 | 24,703 465
54/352 | Sajaa3. | 547503 14] 547885 | 55324 | 49;729 | +104
38,410 | 37,356 | 38,966 Al 0.0} 41,093] 33,555] 42,205 26
38,263 | 43/280 | 44,631 “30 | +123 | 40/824 | 40/243 2604 42
2117436 | 211/583 | 205,659 429] +28] 211/888 | 212/157 | 203,321 +42
CAPITAL GOODS ; INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments .... . 30,147 | 47,969 | 51,058 60] +1 48,231 | 39,238 | 45,632 45.7
New orders. - - 51574 | 551193 | _55'86 12] +8: 49816 | 48161 | 46,745 +66
Unfilled orders : | 3297384 | 327/957 | 320,733 23) 41:5 | 331119 | 3297534 | 316,764 +45
Nondefense :
Shipments. . . 43,826 1,67 44,699 68| +1 42,139 | 34,051 | 39,274 +73
New orders | 4519 47612 | 48,700 22) +5 44630 | 41,290 | 40/682 +97
Unfilled orders :} 221025 | 218/852 | 212/912 28} +1 222,056 | 219,565 | 204,259 $8.7
Excluding aireraft and parts:
Shipments . 39,301 | 37,599 | 39,733 Sa] 42: 37,773 | 30,993 | 34,268 | +102
New orders: ! 40,436 | 39011 | 38,627 +10] -0: 39/226 | 33,704 | 35,671 | +10.0
Unfilled orders 100,763 | 99;628 | 98,216 +14] -11 |} 101,794 | 1003341 | 95,938 +6.1
Defense :
Shipments . . 6321 6,297 6359} +04 10] 44: 6,092 5,187 6,358 42
New orders”: 5575 7581 7164 | -265 | +58] +36: 5,186 6.871 6,063, “145
Unfilled orders’! 108/359 | 1095105 | 107/821 07 | +12] +08 | 1093063 | 109969 | 112,505 “3.1

(NA) Not availble. * Revise.

' Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are a8 of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations,

se, Bo atone samo. Exinaes of manufac’ shipments investors and oder ae suet 1 ure ear and revon.| One major cmpoest of ure ert i naming
sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey desiga, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual

‘and nonreporting. Since the survey pane! is ot a probability
fenchiact publication, Curent Industrial Reports: M3-(6D), "Manufaciei" Shipment, vents, and Orders 1982-1992."

error, which includes errors of coverage,

? The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal oration engines. costo ring an marl haning equipment, metabwuking machinery, pec ny
‘apparatus,

‘machinery, general industrial machinery, computer
complete aireraft, missiles, and space vehicles, ai
Defense capital goods include = ordnance,

office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service
missiles, and space vehicle engines and pans, sips and tank components, rairoad equipment, and search and navigation —equipmen.
ation equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank componeris, search and navigation equipment,

‘Wansmission and

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Feb, | Feb, 1995- Feb. ] Feb. 1995-| Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1995-

Feb. 1995 | 1991-1995 |_Jan. 1996 1991-1995 | _Jan. 1996] Feb. 1995| 1991-1995 |_ Jan. 1996

Durable goods . . 02 01 03 02 05 On 01 02

Primary metals . 02 03 04 12 1.0 02 06 4

Industrial machinery and equipment ol 04 05 0.1 05 09 od 02 04
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 1 04 05 0s 06 08 03 03 03

Transportation equipment. - 03 04 05 13 07 14 03 Ol 03

Nondefense capital goods . . 03 02 06 05 05 10 ol 01 02

Defense capital go oa 06 09 78 46 37 04 03 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t

for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
185 185

New Orders

7B FP - - - t eee4 Shipments |-{ 175

165 165

155 i - 2-22-2222 2-2-2 ------4 155

145

145

135 1. 1 L L 1 L 1 1 au 1 1 L L 135
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1994 -Feb. 1996
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
§3F----- err err ee rr rr ee eee ee ee eee ee eee New Orders |+{ 53

Shipments

48

43

38

33 L 1 L L L i. i L i 1 i L 1 33
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

Feb. 1994-Feb. 1996

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.