UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | wi.
NJ EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 BUREENSOS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable September 28, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2512 CB94-154
M3-1(94)-08

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
August 1994
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $8.8 billion or 6.0 percent to $154.0 billion, following
a 4.0 percent decrease last month, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. Motor vehicles and parts
contributed to over half of this month’s increase and over half of last month’s decline, which was heavily affected by the growing
practice of shutting down for two weeks in July. The August increase is the eleventh in the last thirteen months and the largest
since December 1992. Year to date, new orders are 13.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $6.2 billion or 19.1 percent to $38.5 billion, primarily due to motor
vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment was up $1.1 billion or 4.0 percent to $29.6 billion,
following a 1.1 percent decline in July. Primary metals increased $0.6 billion or 4.8 percent to $13.6 billion, following a 0.7
percent decrease in July. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.3 billion or 1.2 percent to $22.5 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in August increased $8.9 billion or 6.1 percent to $155.4 billion, following a 2.4 percent
decline in July. This is the fifth increase this year and the largest since August 1989. All major groups increased with
transportation equipment having the largest increase, up $5.9 billion or 16.9 percent to $40.5 billion, primarily due to motor
vehicles and parts. This is the largest increase since the 22.0 percent increase in February 1990. Primary metals increased $0.5
billion or 3.9 percent to $13.3 billion, the seventh consecutive increase and the eleventh in the last thirteen months. Year to date,
durable goods shipments are 11.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in August decreased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $423.2 billion. This is the second
consecutive decline and follows three increases in a row. Transportation equipment, down twenty-seven of the last twenty-eight
months, had the largest decrease, down $2.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $204.1 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts and
shipbuilding and tanks. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the fourteenth consecutive month, had the largest increase, up
$1.3 billion or 2.2 percent to $63.0 billion, with increases in nearly all categories. Primary metals increased $0.3 billion or 1.3
percent to $25.9 billion, the ninth consecutive monthly increase.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were up $0.4 billion or 7.9 percent to $6.0 billion, as an increase in aircraft and parts was partially
offset by a decline in shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a decrease of 21.4 percent in July. Shipments increased 0.3 billion or
4.2 percent to $7.1 billion, following a decrease of 0.3 percent in July. Unfilled orders decreased $1.1 billion or 1.0 percent to
$111.3 billion, following a decrease of 1.1 percent in July.

Nondefense - New orders increased $1.1 billion or 3.0 percent to $37.4 billion, with the largest increases in engines and
turbines and aircraft and parts. This follows a 4.6 percent decrease in July and is the third increase this year. Shipments increased
$1.1 billion or 3.0 percent to $37.8 billion, following a decrease of 1.8 percent in July. Unfilled orders decreased $0.3 billion or
0.2 percent to $199.0 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.5 billion or 1.5 percent, following a 3.0
percent decrease. Shipments increased $0.9 billion or 3.0 percent, following a 1.7 percent decline; unfilled orders increased $1.0
billion or 1.2 percent, the fifteenth consecutive monthly increase.

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates
plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published October 5, 1994. The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled for October 26, 1994.
This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census

"s informati ATA. Fi information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Au tay June | July; | June- | May- Au Jul Aug.
199. 1994 | Aug? | July’ | June 199: 1994" 1993 | Aug.94/93
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments coe 155,351 | 146,439 | 150,010 | +6.1 24 152,151 | 126,388 | 131,934
153990 | 145227 | 151.212 | +60 “40 | +12 | 149%025 | 126383 | 128,446
Uniued oruers | 423,211 | 424572 | 425,784 03 03} +03 | 422,842 | 425968 | 432,452
Excluding defense :
Shipments 148,223 | 139,601 | 143,150 | +62 25] +10] 145,282 | 120,224] 125,182
New orders 148/008 | 139685 | 144:161 +6.0 31] +n4 | 1447433 | 121,501 | 122,684
Unfilled orde 311,871 | 312,086 | 312,002 0.1 0.0} +03} 312,842 | 313691 | 311,012
With unfilled orders
Shipments. 121,884 | 117,918 | 119,088 | +3.4 10] +11 | 119,417 | 103,731 | 106,234] +124
New orders 120/523 | 116,706 | 120,290 3:3 230] +14 | 116,291 | 103,726 | 102,746 | +13.2
Primary metals :
Shipments : 13,296 | 12,803 12,734] 43.9 05 5 13,436 11,650 11,452 | +173
New orders”: | 13,620 | 13,001 13,098 | +48 07 19 13,069} 11:865 10,732 | +218
Unfilled orders  : 25,912 | 25,588 | 25390 | +13 08 1 25,892 | 26,259 | 22,185 | +167
Industrial machinery and equipmen
Shipments... . fees 28,275 | 27,222 | 27,125 7] 26,085 | 23,495 | 22,040 | +18.4
New orders” |! 29°24 | 28497 | 28/821 +40 -L1] +30] 27,771 24,720 | 22/583 | +23.0
Unfilled orders’: ° 62,9 61.641 | 60,366 429 | 62,981 "295 | 30,77 424.0
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 23,149 | 22,793 | 22,649 1 +06] +13] 22,875 | 20,290 +178
New orders... « 22456 | 221179 | 2,190 | +12 00} +01 | 21898 | 20,133 19/516 | +122
Unfilled orders’: ! 45;410 | 46,103 | 46,717 AS AB 10 | 45,279 | 46, +30
Transportation equipment
Shipments . . 40,526 | 34,673 | 38,600] +169] -102] +25] 38,706] 25,997 | 32,645 | +186
Rewrorgers "22. 38,469 | 32/300 | 37910 | +191 | 148 | 422 | 35,817 | 23,325 | 29.749 | +204
Unfilled orders < : 204,135 | 206:192 | 208;565 -10 “Ll -03 | 203:273 | 206;162 | 225,150 97
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total
Shipments _ 44,879 43,489 44,175, 43.2 16 42.6 42,162 38,158 38,459 19.6
New orders’ |: 43408 | 41,861 | 45,106 | +3.7 72) +57 | 391858 | 36,461 36,036 | +106
Unfilled orders 310,353 | 311/824 | 313,452 05 05} +03 | 308982 | 311,286 | 324,596 48
Nondefense :
Shipments 37,751 | 36,651 | 37,315 | +3.0 18 35,293 | 31,994 | 31,707 | +113
orders 37,426 | 36.319 | 38,055 | +3.0 46] +72) 35,266 | 31,669 | 30/274 | +165
Unthied orders a 199,013 | 199/338 | 199/670 -02 -02 198/982 | 199,009 | 203,156 21
Excluding aircraft and parts:
32,991 | 32,041 | 32,603 | +3.0 17] +23] 30,946] 28,018 | 26,172 | +18.2
33,987 | 33,471 | 34502 | +15 -310] +75 | 32240 | 29:45 | 26,858 | +200
Unfilled orders: 86,005 | 85009 | 83,579 | +12 41.7 | +23 | 857974 | 84,680 | 72,004. | +19.3,
Defense :
Shipments 7,128 6,838 6,860] +42 03] +06 6,869 6,164 6,752 +17
New orders 51982 5,542 7.051 479 | 214 18 4°59 4792 5,762 -203
Unfilled orders 1117340 | 112/486 | 113,782 10 “Hl | +0.2 | 110,000 | 112,277] 121,440, “94

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

" Shipments and new orders are the ttals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfiled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variation
2 sed on advance sample, Fstiates of manufacture shipments and odes are subject wo survey variability and revision, Sine the survey panel smo a probably sample, exits of sampling variably, cane be cle

Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitation are conained in our most recent annual publication, Current ‘Reports: M3-1(92), "Mi Tventories, and Orders: 1982-1992.
Te Capital Gon Indus ice Nowefes nance. an acess, am egies and ui, eral comin eng. onrcton ming ant marl hanling equipment, meavoring machinery, special indust
hinery, general industrial cy, computer and office eft ‘eating and service industry mact ectical and

‘complet aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, alrcraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank ccnp alga equipment, and ‘ear and tvigaon equpmet
‘Defense eapiat goods include’: ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Tug. |Aug. 1993-| Year ago Tug | Aug, 1993-| Year ago Tug, [Aug. 1993-

Aug. 1993 | 1989-1993 | July 1994 | Aug. 1993 | 1989-1993 | July 1994] Aug. 1993 1989-1993 | July 1994

Durable goods . 05 Hf 3 03 06 03 04 ‘ o 01 Ol

Primary metals 0.1 0.6 08 0.6 Ll 02 0s

Industrial mach 03 08 06 06 06 06 00 03 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . 02 0.2 06 1d 0.7 Ll 04 02 03

‘Transportation equipment 06 04 05 0.5 0.5 09 01 Ol Ol

Nondefense capital goods 04 0.5 0.6 0.1 15 08 0.1 02 Ol

Defense capital goods 0.0 0.7 08 0.0 1d 5.6 0.0 01 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the manthe enacified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

175 175
New Orders

165 F---------- eee ee ee eee eee e---- +e -- 4 ——_ |4165
Shipments

155 155

145 145

135 135

125 125

115 L 1 L L L L L L L L L L L 115
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

Aug. 1992 - Aug. 1994

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45
New Orders
40 F- - - - rr tr rr rr rrr tr re re rr eee Shipments |-4 40

25 bot n L L L n 1 n n 1 L L Ld 25

Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1992- Aug. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.