UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | «ss.
NI EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 men CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 July 25, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable (CB97-125
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-06

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
June
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $4.1 billion or 2.3 percent to $180.6 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.4 percent May decrease and is the second increase
in the last three months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent, also the second increase in the last three months.
Year to date, new orders are 5.8 percent above the same period a year ago; new orders for the second quarter are 1.1 percent above
the first quarter.

Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $2.9 billion or 7.5 percent to $42.3 billion, due
to aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 0.9 percent May decrease. Primary metals, up seven of the last eight
months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $15.6 billion, following a 2.4 percent May decrease. Instruments and related products,
wp two of the last three months, also increased. Industrial machinery and equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased
$0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $32.6 billion. This follows a 3.1 percent May decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down
three of the last four months, decreased slightly to $30.9 billion; decreases led by electronic components more than offset increases led
by communication equipment. This follows a 10.7 percent May increase.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in June, up five of the last six months, increased $3.2 billion or 1.8 percent to $179.1 billion,
following a 1.5 percent May decrease. Year to date, shipments are 7.2 percent above the same period a year ago; shipments for the
second quarter are 2.1 percent above the first quarter.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $1.0 billion or 3.3 percent to $29.7
billion. This follows a 0.9 percent May increase. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, increased $0.7 billion or
1.6 percent to $41.7 billion; increases in motor vehicles and parts and railroad and other equipment more than offset an aircraft and

arts decline. This follows a 3.2 percent May decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up four of the last five months, increased
gO7 billion or 2.0 percent to $33.7 billion, following a 0.9 percent May decrease. Primary metals, up two of the last three months,
increased $0.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $15.4 billion, following a 1.7 percent May decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in June, up for the second consecutive month, increased $1.5 billion or
0.3 percent to $498.8 billion. This follows a 0.1 percent May increase.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $1.2 billion or 2.2 percent to $55.1 billion, following a 4.1 percent
May increase. Transportation equipment increased 30.6 billion or 0.2 percent to $251.9 billion; a large increase in aircraft and parts
more than offset a decline in railroad and other transportation equipment. This follows a 0.7 percent May decrease. Primary metals,
up for the sixth consecutive month, increased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $31.0 billion, following a 1.2 percent May increase.
Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $1.1 billion or 1.5 percent to $73.0 billion,
following a 0.3 percent May decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June increased $0.5 billion or 9.9 percent to $6.1 billion, the second
increase in the last three months. This follows a 12.0 percent May decrease. Shipments, up two of the last three months, increased
$0.4 billion or 6.5 percent to $6.7 billion, following a 1.5 percent May decrease. Unfilled orders, down for the sixth consecutive
month, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $107.7 billion, following a 0.7 percent May decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June, up for the second consecutive month, increased $2.4
billion or 5.4 percent to $46.6 billion, following a 1.1 percent May increase. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased
$0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $45.8 billion. This follows a 0.3 percent May decrease. Unfilled orders, up for the first month since
February, increased $0.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $252.6 billion, following a 0.5 percent May decrease. Excluding aircraft and parts,
new orders increased $0.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $39.0 billion, also the first increase since February; shipments increased $1.0 billion
or 2.6 percent to $39.5 billion, the seventh increase in the last eight months; and unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent
to $97.5 billion, the second consecutive monthly decrease.

@ REVISED MAY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: Shipments, $323.4 billion
revised from $323.5 billion); new orders, $324.1 billion (revised from $323.3 billion); unfilled orders, $522.8 billion (revised from
522.0 billion); and total inventories, $443.4 billion (revised from $443.3 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 1, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for July,is scheduled for August 26, 1997. This report is available
on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
J Mi Al M Ay Mi i Mi i change
fa 1. I~ a ro ne
1997 | 199) iB | tune | May | “Ape | 19978 | 1991 1996 | June97196
DURABLE GOODS
179,061 | 175,833 | 178,482} +18 15] 413 | 196,088 | 176,768 | 182,994 +72
180,578 | 176480 | 177,112 | 423 -04} 418 | 193248 | 175/358 | 182,129 +61
498835 | 497318 | 496671] +03] +01)  -0.3 | 497289 | 500/129 | 476,741 +43
Shipments 172,325 | 169,511 | 172,063 | +17 “15 188,750 | 170,667 | 176,264
174511 | 170960 | 170/841 | +211 +1 | 187194 | 171408 | 173/687 +78
Unfilled orders 391,096 | 388910 | 387,461 | +0.6 389,004 | 390,5 366,001
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. 146,746 | 144,514] 146,177 | +15 -Ll}  +Lt | 161,714 | 143,301 | 149,669 48.0
New orders": 148263 | 145,161 | 144807 | 42:1 02 | +17 | 158874 | 141891 | 148;804 +68
Primary metals :
Shipments. 15,159 | 15,425 +14 | 16215 | 15,653] 14,891 89
New orders 151527 | 15904] +04 424 | 15790 | 151542 | 15,04 +49
Unfilled order 30813 | 30/445 416 | 31,128 | 31/553 | 29,089 0
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments... . : “| 33,692 | 33,027] 33,323] +20] -09 38,780 36,489
New orders 32612 | 32'810 | 33,861 06 3:1] 43:0] 36,782 | 327302 | 35,521 #36
Unfilled orders 77968 | 74048 | 74265 | -1:5 03) + 23145 x 2

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :

Shipments. 29,679 28,728 28,485 43.3 +09 34 32,496 27,780 29,242 +111
New orders 30,865 30,868 27,884 0.0 +10.7 3.2 32,147 29,510 27,587 +16.5
Unfilled orde: 55,134 53,948 51,808 42.2 +4. . 848 54,197 48/205 +117

Transportation equipmen

‘Shipments 41679 | 41,003 | 42346 | +16 33] 45,177 | 42,703 | 42.733 45.7
New orders. |: 42295 | 39350 | 39,717 | +75 428) 45,112 | 30571 | 45,488 08
Untitled orders 251/045 | 251/329 | 252982 | +02 is 252,271 | 252336 | 244:341 43.2
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
‘otal
Shipments... 52,565 | 51,859 | $2,079 | +14 +17] 60682 | 49,660 | $5,692 49.0
New orders 52703 | _49'762 | 50,022 | +59 412} 59330 | 46327 | 56,728 44.6
Unfilled orders : 360,387 | 360,249 | 362,346 00 06 | 360313 | 361,665 | 351,768 424
Nondefense :
Shipments. 45,829 | 45,537 | 45,660 +16] s3344 | 43.859] 48.962 +89
New orders | 46636 | 44242 | 43,751 | 45.4 “17 | 53276 | 42377 | 48:286 | +103,
Unfilled orders’ | 252,648 | 251/841 | 253;136 20:7 | 252%028 | 252/096 | 241028 +46
Excluding aircraft and parts
Shipments « 39,511 | 38,522 | 38,422 | 42.6 4] 45; 36,881 | 43,076 6.
orders 39,035 | 38/373 | 38/570 | +1.7 “15 | 44,622 | 36/845 | 41,783 +68
Dated onders 97,524 | 98,000 | 98,149 05 : 98255 | 95,089
Defense :
Shipments 6.736 6,322 6419 | +65 -15| 424 7,338 6,101 6,730 +9.0
New orders”: ! 6,067 53520 6271 | +99] -120) +275 6,054 3/950 8,442 -283
Unfilled orders’: ! 107,739 | 108,408 | 109,210 -06 07 | “0:1 | 108;285 | 109/569 | 110,740, “22

(NA) Not available, * Revised.
* Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

“nual on advan sane, Enna of manfauen’ spent, ive, a dere subject suey eran evo Ons major component f sey err enamping et, wich noes ero of cnerage
response and nonreporing. Since the survey pane! is nota probability sample, eo snig cca he cles Furr dels on survey design, methodology, and data limitaons are contained in our most recent arma
‘Current Repors: M3-1(96), and Orders: 1987-1996,"
Phe Copal Gods Indus toe Nondefene ordnance, and acestres, sam engines and bins, ineral combustion egies, mining and material metalworking machinery, special industry
peveral yf computer and office on, eating ad eves dusty machinery, and “pparans, tion t
somple ira and space vehicles, aircraft missile, Ten ice sngie t p  l railroad and search and navigation
Teer cipal gos hehe" ace, commancasn pment aca, SHI toes hela, ad put snes an A Compose sec and mvghon epee

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Tune | June 1996-| Year ago Tune | June 1996-| Year ago June | June 1996-

June 1996 | 1992-1996 | May 1997 | June 1996] 1992-1996 | May 1997] June 1996] 1992-1996 | May 1997

Durable goods 06 92 02 06 04 04 0.0 0.1 0

Primary metals 04 04 05 12 09 0.0 04 04

Industrial machinery and eq ipment 15 83 05 13 10 08 03 04 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 07 03 0.6 23 2.0 il 09 08 0.6

Transportation equipment . . 09 07 03 Ol 02 13 02 01 02

Nondefense capital goods 13 07 os 09 09 06 ol 0. 02

Defense capit . 16 0.9 La 52 2.9 49 0.4 0.2 0.3

‘Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t
for the months specified.



Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

200 200
New Orders

190 F- - ----- > 2 er eee ee ee ee ee ee eee] Shipments |-{ 190

180 F----------------------------------------- 4180

170 170

160 160

150 L 1 L L a L L 1 i L L i L 150
Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
Jun, 1995 - Jun. 1997

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

§3fF-------- 5-7 eee ee - ee eee ee ee ee ee New Orders |4 53
Shipments
48 ----- +--+ - 52-2 ee eee eee ee eee - + - +48

33 Lt 4 i n n n L n L n i i LI 33

Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
Jun. 1995 - Jun. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.