UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | “srs.
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 PUR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela October 26, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB9S-195
M3-1(95)-9

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACT 'URERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
September 1995
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods i piember increased $4.9 bil or 3.0 percent to $169.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 5.1 percent August increase and is the fourth increase this
year. Year to date, new orders are 8.1 percent above the same period a year ago; new orders for the third quarter are 3.2 percent above
the second quarter,

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $4.2 billion or 10.8 percent to $43.2 billion; led by aircraft and parts, all indust
categories increased. This follows a 17,1 percent August increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.4 billion or 5.
percent to $28.1 billion, due to communication equipment. This follows a 5.8 percent August decline. Industrial machinery and equipment,
up four of the last five months, increased $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $31.7 billion, following a 5.3 percent August increase. Primary
metals decreased $0.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $15.0 billion. This follows a 6.5 percent August increase and is the eighth decrease this
year. Instruments and related products also had a large decrease.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in September increased $1.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $165.9 billion, following a 5.3 percent
August increase. This is the fourth increase in the last five months and the ninth in the last eleven months. Year to date, shipments are
8.1 percent above the same period last year; shipments for the third quarter are 1.6 percent above the second quarter.

Transportation equipment, up three of the last four-months, had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 2.9 Percent to $39.8 billion, mostly
due to motor vehicles and parts. This follows an 11.4 percent August increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up four of the last
five months, increased $0.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $31.9 billion. This follows a 4.0 percent August increase. Electronic and other
electrical equipment increased $0.4 billion or 1.5 percent to $27.6 billion, the fourth increase in the last five months. Primary metals, down
three of the last four months, decreased 0.2 percent to $14.9 billion, following a 1.5 percent August increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in September increased $3.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $437.3 billion. This
follows a slight August decrease and is the largest increase since January.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.4 billion or 1.7 percent to $199.5 billion, following a 0.1 percent August increase.
This is the largest increase since July 1991. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $54.8 billion,
This follows a 0.9 percent August decrease and is the eleventh increase in the last thirteen months. Primary metals increased $0.1 billion
or 0.5 percent to $27.9 billion, following a 1.2 percent August increase and five consecutive monthly declines. Industrial machinery and
equipment decreased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $72.7 billion, following a slight August decrease. This is the third consecutive decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in September increased 0.7 percent to $7.0 billion, following an August
increase of 40.3 percent. Shipments, down three of the last four months, declined $0.2 billion or 2.4 percent to $6.4 billion, following
a 2.2 percent August increase. Unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $108.9 billion, following a 0.4 percent August
increase,

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in September increased $5.0 billion or 12.1 percent to $46.7 billion.
This follows a 3.5 percent August increase and is the sixth increase this year. Shipments increased $0.9 billion or 2.2 percent to $43.4
billion. This follows a 3.6 percent August increase and is the fourth increase in the last five months. Unfilled orders increased $3.3 billion
or 1.6 percent to $206.0 billion, the first increase since May. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $2.6 billion or 7.1 percent
to $39.5 billion, the fourth increase in the last five months; shipments increased $0.9 billion or 2.4 percent to $38.5 billion, the fourth
increase.in the last five months; unfilled orders increased $1.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $98.5 billion, the twenty-sixth increase in the last
twenty-eight months.

@ REVISED AUGUST DATA Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $302.9 billion
(revised from $302.3 billion); new orders, $302.0 billion (revised from $301.6 billion); unfilled orders, $459.4 billion (revised from $459.7
billion); and total inventories, $412.7 billion (revised from $412.5 billion).

OUR PRESS RELEASE INTERNET ADDRESS: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3ady.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published November 2, 1995, The advance report on durable goods for October is scheduled for November 29, 1995. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe
(1-800-848-8199) The CRNDATA ctaff at the Rurean of the Cenene (M1 AST AITAY nan menssid. a + er



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted ‘Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Sept, Ai July | Al Jul i S Ai sept, | Te
1] Ug. ul ug.= july- June- sept, ug. sept.
1995! 1998 i995 | Sept? | Aug? | “July 1995! 1995 1994 |Sept.95/94
DURABLE GOODS
tal
Shipments . 165,893 | 164,180 | 155919] +10] 453] 3.4] 177,073 | 161,257 | 164,273 +78
New orders” 169/031 | 164083 | 156130] 43.0] +5. -1:8 | 176404 | 139661 | 162,557 485
Unfilled orders 437,264 | 434126 | 434,223 | +0.7 00 00 | 432,663 | 433,332 | 421/287 $2.7
Excluding defen:
Shipments. 159,538 | 137,668 | 149,548 +54 170,120 | 134,928 | 157,080 48.3
New orders 161995 | 137097 | 151,149 | 43.1] 43.9] 156 | 168,727 | 153,803 | 155/311 +86
Unfilled orders’: 328;402 | 325/945 | 326,516 0 02 S| 325:153 | 326/546 | 311/244 +4.5
With unfiled orders :
Shipments... 132,305 | 131,561 | 126922] +06] 43.7] 23] 143182] 129,185 | 131,620 48.8
New orders 1357443 | 131/464 | 1277133] +3.0 | 43:4] 077 | 1421513 | 127/589 | 129/904 $9.7
Primary metals :
Shipments . 14897 | 14,920 02; +15] +19] 15,255] 14,952] 13,935 49.5
New orders 15039 | 15248 | 14318} 14] 465] 0.1 | 14647 | 14,630 | 14,028 +44
Unfilled order 27873 | 277731 ¥ 05} 412) 14] 26614] 27,222 | 25910 42.7
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . 31,852 | 31,421 | 30,213 +40] 22] 34,859} 29,203 | 30,703 | #13.
New orders 31707 | 31405 | 29/818 | +10} 453] 66 | 347211 9284 | 31,656 4811
Unfilled orders’ | 72.656 | 72801 | 72/817 00 7 | 72/295 | 63,853 | +122
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
ipments 37sa6 | 27170) 25789 | tis] +s4) 25] 30283 | 26775 | sem | +179
New orders 28/053 | 26663 | 28/304 | +52 38) +76] 297219 6.026 | 25,176 | +161
Unfilled order 54.779 | 54312 | 54819 | +09 BS) MS] 33a] eR] 40988] st
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 39.826 | 38718 | 34760] 129] +114] 84] 41939) 37.085 | 40.303 +16
orders 43.179 | 38982 | 33.278 | +108] +171 -78| 43947 | 36.588 | 39264 | +119.
Deed Stuer 222: 199456 | 196,103 | 195/839 | +17 | 4011 08 | 198,120 | 195,212 | 202,217 20
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total:
Shipments . . 49,770 | 49,012 | 47.400] +15] 434] 42] 55,190] 46,003 | 49,663 | +111
New orders’. 53,712 | 48639 | 45214 | +104] +76] 64] 581463 | 44830 | 49651 | +177
Unfilled orders : 314;851 | 310/909 | 3117282 | +13 “0.1 -0.7 | 312433 | 309,160 | 308,865 412
Nondefense :
Shipments... 43.415 | 42,500] 41,029] +422] 436] -47] 48237] 39,674 | 42,470 | +13.6
New orders 46676 | 41653 | 40/233. | +121] 435] 64] 50/786 | 38,972 | 42.405 | +198
Unfilled orders 205,989 | 202:728 | 203575 | +16 -04| -0.4 | 204923 | 202374 | 198,822 43.1
Excluding aireraft and parts
Shipments . . 38,507 | 37,621 | 36,263 45] 42,90 35,300] 37,179] +154
New orders 30526 | 36901 | 35;838 | +71 430]  -B1 | 43213 | 34725 | 38312 | +128
Untitled orders 98486 | 97,467 | 98,187 - 04] 97420] 977113 | 877013 | +12.0
Defense :
Shipments 6,355 6,512 6371 2.4 6,953 6,329 7,193 33
New orders "<*>: 7.036 6'986 4981] +0.7 | +403 7.677 51858 77246 459
Unfilled orders’ | 108;862 | 108181 | 107,707 0.6 107,510 | 106,786 | 110,043 23

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

"Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey emor and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling erro, which includes errs of coverage
response an oneporing Sie te survey panel ino probably sample estas of samping err cama te auld, Fue deals on suvey design, metho, an aa Iimtatons ar cnined in our mast resent an
benchmark publication, Current Industri Repons: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers" Shipmens, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992."

|e Capital Goats Indies ne Noietemse; rues and acest, seam engines an tines, eral cambuton egies, comin mining ad material unig equine, metabnking machinery, special ins
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipmen, refrigeration, healing and service industry machinery, elecal wansmission and disribtion
Compcert, an spare veil, acrah mos, an space veh Cages an port, span ak compere, lad eqpet and seach an tavgaion eapment

‘Defense capital goods include = ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Sept. |Sept. 1994- | Year ago Sept. | Sept. 1994- | ~ Year ago Sept. [Sept. 1994-

Sept. 1994 | 1990-1994 | Aug. 1995 | Sept. 1994] 1990-1994 | Aug. 1995] Sept. 1994| 1990-1994 | Aug. 1995

Durable goods 0. 02 03 04 05 03 03 Ol 0.1

Primary metals . ol 04 06 24 12 13 a 04 05

Industrial machinery and equipment . 18 06 08 24 nM mI 03 02 04
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 02 06 04 ra 18 09 03 05 04

‘Transportation equipment. . 20 0.7 07 19 14 07 ol 01 ol

Nondefense capital goods . 16 07 08 3.4 24 12 04 03 02

Defense capital goods... . 26 18 09 8.8 3.7 3.2 0.3 02 0.2

Note: The revi

ns are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard |
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders

178 PP----------- + 2-2 ------------------4 ——— 4175
Shipments

165 P------ > --------------------- 22 -- 2 eed 165

155 155

145 145

135 135

125 L L 1 1 L L L 1. a L L i 125

Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1993 - Sep. 1995
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
49P----- ot TTT ee -] 49
New Orders
aa4p--------------------------- eee eee Shipments | | 4,

29 Lt n n n n L i n L L n 1 LI 59

Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
Sep. 1993-Sep. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.