FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2015, AT 8:30 A.M. EST 

Adriana Stoica 

Economic Indicators Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (15)-01 

CB15-27

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

January 2015 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in January 

increased $6.5 billion or 2.8 percent to $236.1 billion, 

the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, 

up following two consecutive monthly decreases, 

followed a 3.7 percent December decrease. Excluding 

transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.0 percent. 

 

 Transportation equipment, also up following two 

consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $6.0 

billion or 9.1 percent to $72.1 billion. 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, 

down three of the last four months, decreased $2.7 

billion or 1.1 percent to $245.1 billion. This followed a 

1.5 percent December increase. 

 Transportation equipment, down two of the last three 

months, led the decrease, $1.3 billion or 1.7 percent to 

$73.9 billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

January, down two consecutive months, decreased $2.0 

billion or 0.2 percent to $1,163.4 billion. This followed 

a 0.9 percent December decrease. 

 Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive 

months, led the decrease, $1.9 billion or 0.3 percent to 

$736.8 billion.

Inventories 

 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, 

up twenty-one of the last twenty-two months, increased 

$1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $412.5 billion. This was at 

the highest level since the series was first published on a 

NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.5 percent 

December increase. 

 Transportation equipment, also up twenty-one of the 

last twenty-two months, led the increase, $0.7 billion or 

0.5 percent to $134.4 billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in January 

increased $6.9 billion or 9.5 percent to $79.8 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $80.2 

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.1 

percent to $731.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.2 

billion or 0.1 percent to $186.9 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in January 

decreased $0.4 billion or 5.2 percent to $7.6 billion. 

Shipments decreased $1.3 billion or 12.0 percent to $9.2 

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.7 billion or 1.1 

percent to $153.4 billion. Inventories increased $0.2 

billion or 0.7 percent to $24.2 billion. 

Revised December Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $470.6 

billion (revised from $471.5 billion); shipments, $488.7 

billion (revised from $488.2 billion); unfilled orders, 

$1,165.5 billion (revised from $1,166.9 billion); and 

total inventories, $653.1 billion (revised from $653.9 

billion). 

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor 

manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>. Revised and more detailed estimates, plus 

nondurable goods data, will be published on March 5, 2015, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The Advance Report on durable goods for February is 

scheduled for release on March 25, 2015 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. See back page for survey description. To receive the latest updates on the 

Nation's key economic indicators, download the America's Economy app for Apple and Android smartphones and tablets. The U.S. 

Census Bureau updated its Application Programming Interface (API) with monthly and quarterly economic indicators. The API allows developers to combine Census Bureau statistics with other data sets to create tools for research on a variety of topics. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan Change

2015 2 2014 r 2014 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2015 2 2014 r 2014 2015 2014 2015/2014

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 245,147 247,809 244,212 -1.1 1.5 -0.7 217,427 248,234 210,866 217,427 210,866 3.1

 New Orders4.............................. 236,147 229,656 238,575 2.8 -3.7 -2.2 209,812 247,472 206,441 209,812 206,441 1.6

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 171,200 172,593 171,850 -0.8 0.4 -0.6 155,095 170,814 151,954 155,095 151,954 2.1

 New Orders4.............................. 164,067 163,586 165,046 0.3 -0.9 -1.3 151,333 162,346 149,158 151,333 149,158 1.5

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 233,763 235,152 232,133 -0.6 1.3 -0.8 208,234 234,196 201,235 208,234 201,235 3.5

 New Orders4.............................. 226,193 219,620 227,114 3.0 -3.3 -1.4 202,167 232,472 199,383 202,167 199,383 1.4

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 173,911 175,166 172,757 -0.7 1.4 -0.7 153,224 178,582 146,501 153,224 146,501 4.6

 New Orders.............................. 171,867 164,265 174,530 4.6 -5.9 -2.7 153,527 184,247 151,290 153,527 151,290 1.5

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 26,644 27,335 27,370 -2.5 -0.1 -1.6 25,966 25,049 25,899 25,966 25,899 0.3

 New Orders.............................. 26,302 26,370 27,107 -0.3 -2.7 -3.5 26,733 24,845 26,978 26,733 26,978 -0.9

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 30,918 31,023 30,356 -0.3 2.2 -0.1 28,392 28,864 27,087 28,392 27,087 4.8

 New Orders.............................. 30,861 30,915 30,562 -0.2 1.2 -1.3 29,076 28,461 26,989 29,076 26,989 7.7

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 35,616 36,163 36,519 -1.5 -1.0 -0.8 30,802 37,549 30,582 30,802 30,582 0.7

 New Orders.............................. 35,427 34,758 36,016 1.9 -3.5 -0.8 32,554 35,430 34,878 32,554 34,878 -6.7

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Shipments................................ 28,483 28,671 28,750 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 25,817 31,959 26,756 25,817 26,756 -3.5

 New Orders.............................. 22,121 21,910 22,302 1.0 -1.8 -0.6 18,565 26,382 17,918 18,565 17,918 3.6

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 1,962 1,901 1,934 3.2 -1.7 -1.4 1,370 3,086 1,702 1,370 1,702 -19.5

 New Orders.............................. 2,005 1,867 2,026 7.4 -7.8 -0.9 1,413 3,052 1,516 1,413 1,516 -6.8

 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 3,665 3,715 3,432 -1.3 8.2 -5.6 3,023 4,553 3,260 3,023 3,260 -7.3

 New Orders.............................. 4,047 4,111 4,172 -1.6 -1.5 9.7 3,437 5,124 3,612 3,437 3,612 -4.8

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 10,675 10,713 10,648 -0.4 0.6 1.3 9,510 10,527 9,162 9,510 9,162 3.8

 New Orders.............................. 10,491 10,864 10,718 -3.4 1.4 -0.8 9,873 10,751 9,954 9,873 9,954 -0.8

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 73,947 75,216 72,362 -1.7 3.9 -1.0 62,332 77,420 58,912 62,332 58,912 5.8

 New Orders.............................. 72,080 66,070 73,529 9.1 -10.1 -4.0 58,479 85,126 57,283 58,479 57,283 2.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 47,888 49,344 47,787 -3.0 3.3 0.2 42,823 45,574 40,694 42,823 40,694 5.2

 New Orders.............................. 47,945 49,359 48,117 -2.9 2.6 0.6 43,008 46,224 40,919 43,008 40,919 5.1 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 14,130 12,935 12,528 9.2 3.2 -4.6 10,186 17,747 8,929 10,186 8,929 14.1

 New Orders.............................. 13,045 5,709 13,701 128.5 -58.3 -11.0 6,901 23,619 8,688 6,901 8,688 -20.6

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,981 4,672 4,502 -14.8 3.8 -2.0 3,082 5,477 3,609 3,082 3,609 -14.6

 New Orders.............................. 3,651 3,904 4,754 -6.5 -17.9 -10.5 3,095 6,613 3,111 3,095 3,111 -0.5

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 38,864 38,688 38,207 0.5 1.3 -0.9 34,608 36,866 32,468 34,608 32,468 6.6

 New Orders.............................. 38,865 38,769 38,341 0.2 1.1 -0.9 34,532 36,477 32,441 34,532 32,441 6.4

 Capital goods3

:

 Shipments................................ 89,423 89,874 88,823 -0.5 1.2 -0.9 75,072 100,891 72,083 75,072 72,083 4.1

 New Orders.............................. 87,311 80,833 90,267 8.0 -10.5 -2.7 72,417 106,434 73,979 72,417 73,979 -2.1

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 80,204 79,397 78,856 1.0 0.7 -1.2 67,605 89,476 64,231 67,605 64,231 5.3

 New Orders.............................. 79,750 72,861 81,184 9.5 -10.3 -1.5 66,980 94,826 68,422 66,980 68,422 -2.1

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 69,957 70,153 69,941 -0.3 0.3 -0.5 61,020 75,835 58,910 61,020 58,910 3.6

 New Orders.......................... 70,583 70,179 70,643 0.6 -0.7 -0.5 64,099 74,944 63,890 64,099 63,890 0.3

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 9,219 10,477 9,967 -12.0 5.1 1.7 7,467 11,415 7,852 7,467 7,852 -4.9

 New Orders.............................. 7,561 7,972 9,083 -5.2 -12.2 -12.2 5,437 11,608 5,557 5,437 5,557 -2.2

r

 Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.

1

 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of 

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, 

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, 

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Estimates of shipments for the semiconductor industry are no longer shown separately. Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included 

 in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan 2015/

2015 2 2014 r 2014 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2015 2 2014 r 2014 2014

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4......................... 1,163,436 1,165,480 1,176,381 -0.2 -0.9 0.2 1,168,020 1,167,717 1,065,067 9.7

 Total Inventories....................... 412,505 410,670 408,714 0.4 0.5 0.5 411,336 399,679 387,880 6.0

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4......................... 426,674 426,851 428,606 0.0 -0.4 0.1 423,520 419,364 400,255 5.8

 Total Inventories....................... 278,151 276,972 275,340 0.4 0.6 0.3 277,763 270,072 265,130 4.8

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4........................... 978,280 978,894 987,174 -0.1 -0.8 0.2 983,293 981,442 876,736 12.2

 Total Inventories....................... 382,819 381,210 379,168 0.4 0.5 0.5 381,659 370,381 359,836 6.1

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,163,436 1,165,480 1,176,381 -0.2 -0.9 0.2 1,168,020 1,167,717 1,065,067 9.7

 Total Inventories....................... 338,747 337,404 336,231 0.4 0.3 0.6 337,223 327,950 317,308 6.3

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 39,031 39,373 40,338 -0.9 -2.4 -0.6 39,635 38,868 37,132 6.7

 Total Inventories....................... 39,301 38,663 38,080 1.7 1.5 1.0 39,318 38,095 35,402 11.1

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 87,764 87,821 87,929 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 85,545 84,861 83,699 2.2

 Total Inventories....................... 51,058 50,767 50,482 0.6 0.6 0.7 50,886 49,860 48,229 5.5

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 117,873 118,062 119,467 -0.2 -1.2 -0.4 117,482 115,730 112,043 4.9

 Total Inventories....................... 67,363 67,569 67,593 -0.3 0.0 -0.5 66,986 65,014 65,485 2.3

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 148,036 147,442 146,951 0.4 0.3 0.7 147,414 146,748 137,347 7.3

 Total Inventories....................... 49,563 49,230 48,837 0.7 0.8 -0.4 49,586 47,939 47,268 4.9

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 4,237 4,194 4,228 1.0 -0.8 2.2 4,237 4,194 3,203 32.3

 Total Inventories....................... 4,763 4,740 4,629 0.5 2.4 -0.9 4,692 4,418 4,513 4.0 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 39,928 39,546 39,150 1.0 1.0 1.9 39,683 39,269 35,879 10.6

 Total Inventories....................... 7,273 7,239 7,345 0.5 -1.4 -2.0 7,322 7,055 7,756 -5.6

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 25,766 25,950 25,799 -0.7 0.6 0.3 25,789 25,426 23,082 11.7

 Total Inventories....................... 16,604 16,672 16,609 -0.4 0.4 1.3 16,592 16,073 16,760 -1.0

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 736,762 738,629 747,775 -0.3 -1.2 0.2 744,500 748,353 664,812 12.0

 Total Inventories....................... 134,354 133,698 133,374 0.5 0.2 1.1 133,573 129,607 122,750 8.8

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 17,846 17,789 17,774 0.3 0.1 1.9 18,221 18,036 16,741 8.8

 Total Inventories....................... 27,807 27,658 27,422 0.5 0.9 0.2 28,261 26,717 26,298 7.5 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 567,322 568,407 575,633 -0.2 -1.3 0.2 574,518 577,803 495,467 16.0

 Total Inventories....................... 76,257 75,949 75,574 0.4 0.5 1.3 75,036 73,111 68,113 10.2

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 62,386 62,716 63,484 -0.5 -1.2 0.4 63,334 63,321 64,013 -1.1

 Total Inventories....................... 14,545 14,146 14,399 2.8 -1.8 -0.8 14,442 13,924 13,231 9.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,204 8,203 8,122 0.0 1.0 1.7 7,655 7,731 6,952 10.1

 Total Inventories....................... 54,262 54,071 53,739 0.4 0.6 0.6 54,395 53,091 51,986 4.6

 Capital goods3:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 884,410 886,522 895,563 -0.2 -1.0 0.2 888,146 890,801 806,341 10.1

 Total Inventories....................... 211,144 210,807 210,626 0.2 0.1 0.5 209,240 203,816 198,240 5.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 731,028 731,482 738,018 -0.1 -0.9 0.3 735,894 736,519 648,062 13.6

 Total Inventories....................... 186,938 186,768 186,480 0.1 0.2 0.4 184,940 179,717 175,363 5.5

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 254,339 253,713 253,687 0.2 0.0 0.3 252,201 249,122 233,625 8.0

 Total Inventories................... 122,565 122,765 122,775 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 121,801 118,585 119,248 2.1

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 153,382 155,040 157,545 -1.1 -1.6 -0.6 152,252 154,282 158,279 -3.8

 Total Inventories....................... 24,206 24,039 24,146 0.7 -0.4 0.9 24,300 24,099 22,877 6.2

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, 

and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

This survey provides statistics on a calendar-month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new 

orders (net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory 

(at current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-inprocess, and finished goods). Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately 

4,800 reporting units that represent approximately 3,000 companies and provide an indication of month-tomonth change for the Manufacturing Sector. These reporting units may be divisions of diversified large 

companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, which are 

combined into 65 publication levels due to the small monthly panel size. The survey methodology 

assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the M3 panel

effectively represent the month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category.

The companies for which shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent 

approximately 61 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 

Economic Census, and these companies include almost two-thirds of the manufacturing companies with 

$500 million or more in shipments in the 2012 Economic Census. The companies for which shipments 

data are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 54 percent of the total value of 

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 Economic Census. Statistics based on the M3 

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing 

companies. The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are 

normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many 

sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is one 

source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-to-month 

movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full 

report. Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any 

revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.

Benchmark notice

Revised historical data from the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey will 

be issued on May 14, 2015. These revisions result from benchmarking the shipments and inventories 

data to the 2012 Economic Census and the 2013 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) data on a 

2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) basis, as well as revised ASM 

benchmarks for prior years on a 2007 NAICS basis; incorporating the unfilled orders to shipments 

ratios obtained from the 2013/2012 and 2012/2011 Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders Surveys by 

applying these ratios to the respective Census or ASM shipments data, as well as incorporating revised 

unfilled orders to shipments ratios for prior years; adjusting the new orders data to be consistent with 

the benchmarked shipments and unfilled orders data; correcting monthly data for late receipts, 

reclassifications of reported data, and revisions to previously reported data; and updating the 

seasonally adjusted data based on the results of benchmarking and the recent annual review of the 

seasonal adjustment models. These revisions will span the seasonally adjusted data for January 1997 

through March 2015 and the data not seasonally adjusted for January 2001 through March 2015. An 

updated Press Release will contain revised monthly tables for January 2015 through March 2015 on a 

2012 NAICS basis, which will be the new basis for publishing data from the M3 Survey starting with 

the April 2015 Advance Report on Durable Goods. Please call M3 staff on (301) 763-4832 with any 

questions.