### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 14-1

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY..................................................................... 14-1

14.3 RESULTS ........................................................................................................................ . 14-3

14.3.1 Results for Class A Equipment.......................................................................... 14-4

14.3.2 Impacts Related to Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – TSL 1 . 14-7

14.3.3 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 7 for Class A Equipment................................. 14-8

14.3.4 Results for Class B Equipment .......................................................................... 14-9

14.3.5 Impacts Related to Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – TSL 1 14-12

14.3.6 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 6 for Class B Equipment............................... 14-13

REFERENCE...................................................................................................................... ..... 14-14

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commer cial Electricity Consumption, Electricity Generation, a nd Electricity Capacity ............................................... 14-3

Table 14.3.2 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ..... 14-4

Table 14.3.3 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ..... 14-4

Table 14.3.4 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ..... 14-5

Table 14.3.5 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ..... 14-5

Table 14.3.6 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ..... 14-6

Table 14.3.7 TSL 6 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ..... 14-6

Table 14.3.8 TSL 7 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ..... 14-7

Table 14.3.9 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ..... 14-9

Table 14.3.10 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ... 14-10

Table 14.3.11 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ... 14-10

Table 14.3.12 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ... 14-11

Table 14.3.13 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ... 14-11

Table 14.3.14 TSL 6 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment ... 14-12

14-i14-ii

### CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

The U.S. Departm ent of Energy (DOE) an alyzed the effects of amended energy conservation standards for beverage vending mach ines (BVM) on the electric utility industry. DOE conducted the utility impact analysis us ing Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a 

### which is a public domain, multi-sector, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a reference energy forecast for the United States, published in the Annual Energy Outlook

. 1 

### The Annual Energy Outlook for 2008 ( AEO2008) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030.

DOE used a variant of this NEMS model, referred to as NEMS-Building Technologies (BT), b 

### to account for the impact of amended en ergy conservation standards on the reference energy forecast. The NEMS-BT reference case was modeled after AEO2008 reference case. c 

### The utility impact analysis consists of a comparis on between model results for the reference case and for the policy cases in which amended energy conservation standards are in place. d



### NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its use in the analysis of national energy conservation standards. Th e model uses a set of assumpti ons that are well known and fairly transparent because of the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the mode ling of interactions among the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy conservation standards. Perhap s most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which yield a more accu rate estimate of the ac tual impacts of energy conservation standards compared to considering only average effects.

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY

DOE’s utility impact analysis app lies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2008

. For example, the operating characteristics (energ y conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of future electricity generating pl ants are as specified in the AEO2008 reference case. The utility impact analysis reports the change s in installed capacity and gene ration by fuel type that result from each trial standard level (T SL) as well as changes in electricity sales to the commercial

sector.

a For more information on NEMS, refer to DOE EIA documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003 , DOE/EIA-0581(2003), March 2003. More detailed and more current

documentation of various sub-models within NEMS can be obtained from EIA’s website: http://www.eia.doe.gov /oia f/forecasting.html

. b DOE/EIA approves the use of NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor c ode modifications and the mode l is run under various policy scenarios that are variations of DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS-BT (BT is DOE’s Buildings Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed).

c The NEMS-BT reference case shows very slight differe nces from the AEO reference case. In 2030, total commercial electricity consumption in the NEMS-BT refe rence case was 0.10 percent lower than the 2008 AEO reference case. For total electricity generation and total installed generating capacity, NEMS-BT produced estimates that were 0.08 percent and 0.34 percent lower than the AEO reference case, respectively.

d In the discussion below, the abbreviated term “the reference case” should be understood to refer to the NEMS-BT

reference case.

14-1

### The utility analysis uses the AEO2008 Reference Case as the base case and treats the energy conservation standards on BVM equipment as variations in policy. The effect of the policy is calculated as the di fference in the reference case an d the proposed energy conservation standards case. Because the implementation of energy conservation standards for BVM equipment reduces the electricity demand by less th an one-tenth of 1 percent (in the range of 0.0009 to 0.02 percent in 2025 for Class A equipm ent, and 0.0003 to 0.008 percent in 2025 for Class B equipment, depending on the TSL) in any given year, its effect is difficult to measure adequately in the NEMS simulations. Therefore, larger reductions in demand are modeled, and results for the TSLs are interpolated. The effects are assumed to be linear within the range of interpolation.

In its analysis of energy conservation sta ndards for BVM equipment, DOE adjusted the annual end-use energy consumption for refrigera tion that was predicted within the commercial sector module of NEMS-BT. These decrements in the annual consumption were made for each census division using the method for computing en ergy savings developed in the national impact analysis (see chapter 11). The changes in annual consumption were translated into changes in hourly system load as part of the normal NE MS modeling process using the NEMS’ standard commercial building refrigeration shapes.

As mentioned above, the magnitude of the en ergy decrement that would be required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results, outside the range of numerical noise , is larger than the highest energy conservation st andard under consideration. e 

### Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to the TSL using interpolation. It implemented reductions to both the commercial refrigeration end uses at multiples of the propos ed standards and linearly interpolated actual changes in generation and capacity due to the sta ndard from these outputs. Compared to the total savings for Class A BVM equipment under TSL 7, th e multipliers used in this analysis were 36, 54, and 72. In the case of Class B equipment under TSL 6, the multipliers used in this analysis were 111, 166, and 221. Appendix K, Estimation of Utility and Environmental Results from NEMS-BT Output, provides details of the in terpolation method and how the multiples were

selected.

The terminal year of the NEMS-BT model is 2030, impacts beyond which are typically extrapolated based on the pattern of electricit y savings (in kWh) expected for a particular standard. The extrapolation was based on a compar ison of the change in the NEMS-BT variable ( e.g. , coal-fired generation) to the change in el ectricity savings over 2025 –2030. As a first step to implement the method, the changes in electr icity savings over thr ee periods—2030 to 2035, 2035 to 2040, and 2040 to 2042—are usually expressed as ra tios to the change in electricity savings over 2025–2030. The changes in a utility-sector variable can then be multiplied by these ratios to estimate the changes after 2030. However, in the case of BVM equipment in 2025, shipment rate

is constant and all machines on the market will comply with the standards established in this rule. Consequently, the net energy consumpti on from 2025–2042 is constant; as a result, the impact on U.S. electricity generation and inst alled generation capacity is also constant.

e The numerical noise stems, in part, from the fact that a precise balancing between the demand and supply sides of NEMS is not always achieved, given the iterative nature of the solution process.

14-2

### 14.3 RESULTS

The results from the reference case are shown in Table 14.3.1 . Results for the various TSLs for both classes of equipment are presented in Table 14.3.2 through Table 14.3.14 . Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 14.2 , for commercial sector energy sales, tota l U.S. electricity generati on, and installed capacity.

Table 14.3.1 Reference Case Forecast: Commercia l Electricity Consumption, Electricity Generation, and Electricity Capacity

NEMS-BT Results

2005 * 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption **
Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,275 1,386 1,521 1,661 1,802 1,939

Total U.S. Electricity Generation †

Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,056 2,180 2,359 2,573 2,808 Petroleum (TWh) 122 56 56 60 65 66 Gas (TWh) 761 912 911 835 773 755 Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 910 928 Renewables (TWh) 372 474 530 601 651 674 Total (TWh) 4,050 4,294 4,483 4,723 4,972 5,231

Installed Generating Capacity ‡

Fossil Steam (GW) 430.9 434.4 416.9 434.8 464.6 494.2 Combined Cycle (GW) 169.3 190.0 192.2 196.8 205.8 210.6 Combustion Turbines (GW) 130.3 137.4 129.4 131.4 143.0 164.4 Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.6 116.1 Renewables (GW) 114.9 133.4 139.8 148.1 155.2 163.3 Total (GW) 945.6 996.0 980.4 1,022.0 1,084.2 1,148.4

* Values for 2005 are reported by NEMS-BT, but are very close to the historical values shown in various tables in EIA's Annual Energy Review 2006

** Comparable to panel in Table A8 of AEO 2008, Electricity Supply, Dispositio n, Prices, and Emissions, that displays electricity sales by sector

† Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2008 Electricity Supply, Dispos ition, Prices, and Emissi ons. Includes generation from electricity-only, combined heat and power, and end-use generators
‡ Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2008: Electricity Generating Capacity. Fossil Steam includes coal steam and other fossil fuel steam plants

14-3

### 14.3.1 Results for Class A Equipment

Results for the various TS Ls for Class A equipment are presented in Table 14.3.2 through

Table 14.3.8

.

Table 14.3.2 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0074 -0.0138 -0.0171 -0.0173 -0.0173 -0.0173 -0.0173

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0045 -0.0079 -0.0068 -0.0046 -0.0046 -0.0046 -0.0046 Petroleum (TWh) -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Gas (TWh) -0.0031 -0.0054 -0.0046 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0035 -0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0037 Renewables (TWh) 0.0003 -0.0005 -0.0022 -0.0059 -0.0059 -0.0059 -0.0059 Total (TWh) -0.0075 -0.0139 -0.0172 -0.0173 -0.0173 -0.0173 -0.0173

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0002 -0.0005 -0.0008 -0.0011 -0.0011 -0.0011 -0.0011 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 Nuclear (GW) -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0007 -0.0007 -0.0007 -0.0007 Renewables (GW) -0.0001 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 Total (GW) -0.0005 -0.0011 -0.0016 -0.0020 -0.0020 -0.0020 -0.0020



### Table 14.3.3 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0328 -0.0613 -0.0760 -0.0769 -0.0769 -0.0769 -0.0769

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0202 -0.0351 -0.0301 -0.0206 -0.0206 -0.0206 -0.0206 Petroleum (TWh) -0.0004 -0.0006 -0.0005 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 Gas (TWh) -0.0140 -0.0241 -0.0204 -0.0133 -0.0133 -0.0133 -0.0133 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0155 -0.0163 -0.0163 -0.0163 -0.0163 Renewables (TWh) 0.0014 -0.0020 -0.0098 -0.0264 -0.0264 -0.0264 -0.0264 Total (TWh) -0.0331 -0.0618 -0.0763 -0.0767 -0.0767 -0.0767 -0.0767

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0010 -0.0022 -0.0036 -0.0051 -0.0051 -0.0051 -0.0051 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0004 -0.0007 -0.0010 -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0003 0.0009 0.0020 0.0020 0.0020 0.0020 Nuclear (GW) -0.0004 -0.0010 -0.0019 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 Renewables (GW) -0.0006 -0.0012 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 Total (GW) -0.0023 -0.0049 -0.0071 -0.0089 -0.0089 -0.0089 -0.0089

14-4

### Table 14.3.4 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0738 -0.1380 -0.1711 -0.1729 -0.1729 -0.1729 -0.1729

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0454 -0.0789 -0.0678 -0.0464 -0.0464 -0.0464 -0.0464 Petroleum (TWh) -0.0009 -0.0014 -0.0010 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 Gas (TWh) -0.0314 -0.0542 -0.0459 -0.0299 -0.0299 -0.0299 -0.0299 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0350 -0.0368 -0.0368 -0.0368 -0.0368 Renewables (TWh) 0.0032 -0.0045 -0.0221 -0.0593 -0.0593 -0.0593 -0.0593 Total (TWh) -0.0746 -0.1391 -0.1718 -0.1725 -0.1725 -0.1725 -0.1725

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0022 -0.0049 -0.0080 -0.0115 -0.0115 -0.0115 -0.0115 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0008 -0.0016 -0.0022 -0.0026 -0.0026 -0.0026 -0.0026 Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0001 0.0006 0.0021 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046 0.0046 Nuclear (GW) -0.0009 -0.0024 -0.0043 -0.0068 -0.0068 -0.0068 -0.0068 Renewables (GW) -0.0012 -0.0027 -0.0035 -0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0037 -0.0037 Total (GW) -0.0053 -0.0110 -0.0159 -0.0200 -0.0200 -0.0200 -0.0200



### Table 14.3.5 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case

Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption
Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.1156 -0.2162 -0.2680 -0.2709 -0.2709 -0.2709 -0.2709

Total U.S. Electricity Generation
Coal (TWh) -0.0712 -0.1237 -0.1062 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727 -0.0727
Petroleum (TWh) -0.0014 -0.0023 -0.0016 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003
Gas (TWh) -0.0492 -0.0849 -0.0719 -0.0468 -0.0468 -0.0468 -0.0468
Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0548 -0.0576 -0.0576 -0.0576 -0.0576
Renewables (TWh) 0.0050 -0.0071 -0.0347 -0.0929 -0.0929 -0.0929 -0.0929
Total (TWh) -0.1169 -0.2180 -0.2691 -0.2703 -0.2703 -0.2703 -0.2703

Installed Generating Capacity
Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0034 -0.0077 -0.0125 -0.0180 -0.0180 -0.0180 -0.0180 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0013 -0.0026 -0.0035 -0.0041 -0.0041 -0.0041 -0.0041
Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0001 0.0009 0.0033 0.0072 0.0072 0.0072 0.0072
Nuclear (GW) -0.0014 -0.0037 -0.0067 -0.0106 -0.0106 -0.0106 -0.0106
Renewables (GW) -0.0019 -0.0042 -0.0055 -0.0058 -0.0058 -0.0058 -0.0058
Total (GW) -0.0082 -0.0173 -0.0250 -0.0313 -0.0313 -0.0313 -0.0313

14-5

### Table 14.3.6 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.1363 -0.2550 -0.3160 -0.3194 -0.3194 -0.3194 -0.3194

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0839 -0.1458 -0.1252 -0.0857 -0.0857 -0.0857 -0.0857 Petroleum (TWh) -0.0016 -0.0027 -0.0019 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 Gas (TWh) -0.0580 -0.1002 -0.0848 -0.0551 -0.0551 -0.0551 -0.0551 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0646 -0.0679 -0.0679 -0.0679 -0.0679 Renewables (TWh) 0.0058 -0.0084 -0.0409 -0.1096 -0.1096 -0.1096 -0.1096 Total (TWh) -0.1378 -0.2570 -0.3173 -0.3187 -0.3187 -0.3187 -0.3187

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0040 -0.0091 -0.0148 -0.0212 -0.0212 -0.0212 -0.0212 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0016 -0.0030 -0.0041 -0.0048 -0.0048 -0.0048 -0.0048 Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0002 0.0011 0.0039 0.0084 0.0084 0.0084 0.0084 Nuclear (GW) -0.0017 -0.0044 -0.0079 -0.0125 -0.0125 -0.0125 -0.0125 Renewables (GW) -0.0023 -0.0049 -0.0065 -0.0068 -0.0068 -0.0068 -0.0068 Total (GW) -0.0097 -0.0204 -0.0294 -0.0369 -0.0369 -0.0369 -0.0369



### Table 14.3.7 TSL 6 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.1501 -0.2806 -0.3478 -0.3516 -0.3516 -0.3516 -0.3516

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0924 -0.1605 -0.1378 -0.0943 -0.0943 -0.0943 -0.0943 Petroleum (TWh) -0.0018 -0.0029 -0.0021 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 Gas (TWh) -0.0639 -0.1102 -0.0933 -0.0607 -0.0607 -0.0607 -0.0607 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0711 -0.0748 -0.0748 -0.0748 -0.0748 Renewables (TWh) 0.0064 -0.0092 -0.0450 -0.1206 -0.1206 -0.1206 -0.1206 Total (TWh) -0.1517 -0.2829 -0.3493 -0.3508 -0.3508 -0.3508 -0.3508

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0044 -0.0100 -0.0163 -0.0233 -0.0233 -0.0233 -0.0233 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0017 -0.0033 -0.0045 -0.0053 -0.0053 -0.0053 -0.0053 Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0002 0.0012 0.0043 0.0093 0.0093 0.0093 0.0093 Nuclear (GW) -0.0018 -0.0048 -0.0087 -0.0138 -0.0138 -0.0138 -0.0138 Renewables (GW) -0.0025 -0.0054 -0.0071 -0.0075 -0.0075 -0.0075 -0.0075 Total (GW) -0.0107 -0.0224 -0.0324 -0.0406 -0.0406 -0.0406 -0.0406

14-6

### Table 14.3.8 TSL 7 Utility Impacts for Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.1819 -0.3401 -0.4215 -0.4260 -0.4260 -0.4260 -0.4260

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.1120 -0.1945 -0.1670 -0.1143 -0.1143 -0.1143 -0.1143 Petroleum (TWh) -0.0022 -0.0035 -0.0026 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 Gas (TWh) -0.0774 -0.1336 -0.1131 -0.0736 -0.0736 -0.0736 -0.0736 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0861 -0.0906 -0.0906 -0.0906 -0.0906 Renewables (TWh) 0.0078 -0.0112 -0.0545 -0.1461 -0.1461 -0.1461 -0.1461 Total (TWh) -0.1838 -0.3428 -0.4232 -0.4251 -0.4251 -0.4251 -0.4251

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0053 -0.0121 -0.0197 -0.0283 -0.0283 -0.0283 -0.0283 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0021 -0.0040 -0.0055 -0.0064 -0.0064 -0.0064 -0.0064 Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0002 0.0014 0.0052 0.0113 0.0113 0.0113 0.0113 Nuclear (GW) -0.0022 -0.0058 -0.0106 -0.0167 -0.0167 -0.0167 -0.0167 Renewables (GW) -0.0031 -0.0066 -0.0086 -0.0091 -0.0091 -0.0091 -0.0091 Total (GW) -0.0129 -0.0272 -0.0393 -0.0492 -0.0492 -0.0492 -0.0492



### 14.3.2 Impacts Related to Class A Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – TSL 1

Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts for all beverage vending machine equipment under TSL 1, the level that approxima tely corresponds to the ENERGY STAR Tier 2 rating. The top

line of Table 14.3.2 shows that under TSL 1, total commerc ial electricity use in terawatt hours (TWh ) declines by 0.0074 TWh in 2015 and by 0.0173 TWh in 2030.

The reductions in total commercial electricity generation (shown as the last line in the second panel of the table) are slig htly different than the reductions in commercial electricity use (shown in the first line of the table). These differe nces are to due to the net impact of various factors at the energy system level. The NEMS m odel suggests that electricity prices generally decline slightly following the implementation of the standard. These price changes lead to very small increases in demand for all major end-use sectors (residential, industrial, and commercial f 

### ). An offsetting factor at the system level, however, is that some changes in generation also reflect

transmission and distribution losses that res pond to higher or lower sales to end users.

As expected, total generation falls in a near ly continuous fashion with respect to the lower electricity demand prompted by the ener gy conservation standard. However, for the individual generation technologies by fuel type, the responses are much more varied. In the long term ( e.g. , by 2030), the NEMS-BT model suggests that there may be sign ificant changes, compared to the reference case, between plants serv ing primarily base load uses (principally coal

f Specifically, in the NEMS-BT commercial sector model, the response to higher electricity prices is modeled in two ways. First, the selection of more efficient equipment is prompted when new buildings are constructed or when equipment is replaced in existing buildings. Second, a genera l behavioral response to high er prices is modeled via a price elasticity in which a percentage increase in prices (x) is reflected by a different percentage reduction in consumption (y). For most commercial end uses, this price elasticity (y/x) is approximately -0.15.

14-7

### and nuclear) and plants using other fuels. Th e BVM energy conservation standards for class A equipment generally reduce base load (and thus o ff-peak) electricity dema nd. This change in the load profile reduces the attract iveness of coal and, to a lesser extent, nuclear plants.

In the near term (through 2020), the NEMS -BT model suggests slightly different behavior. Electricity generation from natural gas and coal plants is lower than that in the reference case. Nuclear genera tion is relatively unchanged, refl ecting the inability of that segment of the industry to adjust quickly to chan ges in demand. In general, because there is less opportunity over the next decade (through 2020) to bu ild new plants and optimize the electricity supply system to meet the altered character of the load, other institutio nal and economic factors may be more relevant in how various generating facilities are dispatched.

The bottom panel of results in Table 14.3.2 shows the impacts on generating capacity by type of generation technology. Total generation capacity is lower by about 0.002 gigawatts (GW) in 2030, roughly a 0.0002 percent decline from the reference case.

The com ponents of total cap acity are distinguished by t ype of generation technology rather than strictly by fuel type. Fossil fuel steam plants are primarily coal fired, but also include some petroleum use. High efficiency, combined-c ycle plants and combustion turbines both use natural gas.

Because coal plants are primarily used to meet base loads, the capacity of this type of plant shows a relatively large dec line over the next two decades. Co mpared to the reference case, the total generation capacity of coal plants decl ines (relative to the refe rence case) throughout the forecast period and is lower by about 0.0011 GW by 2030. Nuclear plants, which are also used to meet base loads, are projected to see a cap acity decline of 0.0007 GW by the same date.

As opposed to combined cycle power plant capacity, combustion turbine capacity is higher than the reference case. Because the ove rall load profile shows a higher proportion of weather-related electricity consumption, combustion turbine capacity in 2030 is about 0.0005 GW higher than the reference case. Combined cy cle plants witness a decline in capacity of 0.0003 GW as they tend to be slightly less weathe r-related than combustion turbines. Generation capacity from renewables s lightly declin es by 0.0004 GW g



### .

14.3.3 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 7 for Class A Equipment

Table 14.3.3 through Table 14.3.8 show the estimated impacts for TSLs 2 through 7. Corresponding to TSL 6, Table 14.3.7 shows the impacts associated with energy conservation

standards selected to m atch the maximum energy savings level with a net present value greater than zero level for Class A BVM equipment. As s hown in this table, compared to the reference case, total generation in 2030 would declin e by about 0.351 TWh. The major reductions in

g Any comparison between the generation and capacity impact s shown in the table is complicated by the fact that various types of generating plants operate for different numbers of hours during the year. Base load plants, such as fossil fuel steam and nuclear, are relativ ely comparable as they op erate for roughly the same number of hours during the year. Because renewables comprise a number of technologi es with various operating hours, it is not surprising to see a divergence between the behavior of generation and capacity at this aggregate level.

14-8

### generation occur at coal, nuclear, gas, and renewa ble energy facilities. Total generation capacity falls by 0.041 GW relative to the re ference case or about 0.03 percent.

In TSL 7, the standards for the Class A BVM equipment are set to the maximum (technologically feasible) level. The impacts from this case are shown in Table 14.3.8 . In this case, the 2030 impact on total gene ration is approxim ately 20 percen t greater than that of TSL 6, or 0.425 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.049 GW, compared to the reference case.

14.3.4 Results for Class B Equipment

Results for the various TS Ls for Class B Equipment are presented in Table 14.3.9 through Table 14.3.14

.

Table 14.3.9 TSL 1 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0023 -0.0044 -0.0054 -0.0055 -0.0055 -0.0055 -0.0055

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0014 -0.0025 -0.0021 -0.0015 -0.0015 -0.0015 -0.0015 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Gas (TWh) -0.0010 -0.0017 -0.0014 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0011 -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 -0.0012 Renewables (TWh) 0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0007 -0.0019 -0.0019 -0.0019 -0.0019 Total (TWh) -0.0024 -0.0044 -0.0054 -0.0054 -0.0054 -0.0054 -0.0054

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 -0.0004 Combined Cycle (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 Nuclear (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 Renewables (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 Total (GW) -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0006 -0.0006 -0.0006

14-9

### Table 14.3.10 TSL 2 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0035 -0.0065 -0.0081 -0.0082 -0.0082 -0.0082 -0.0082

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0021 -0.0037 -0.0032 -0.0022 -0.0022 -0.0022 -0.0022 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0000 -0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Gas (TWh) -0.0015 -0.0026 -0.0022 -0.0014 -0.0014 -0.0014 -0.0014 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0017 -0.0017 -0.0017 -0.0017 -0.0017 Renewables (TWh) 0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0010 -0.0028 -0.0028 -0.0028 -0.0028 Total (TWh) -0.0035 -0.0066 -0.0081 -0.0082 -0.0082 -0.0082 -0.0082

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 -0.0005 Combined Cycle (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 Nuclear (GW) 0.0000 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 -0.0003 Renewables (GW) -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 Total (GW) -0.0002 -0.0005 -0.0008 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009



### Table 14.3.11 TSL 3 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0173 -0.0323 -0.0400 -0.0405 -0.0405 -0.0405 -0.0405

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0106 -0.0185 -0.0159 -0.0109 -0.0109 -0.0109 -0.0109 Petroleum (TWh) -0.0002 -0.0003 -0.0002 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 Gas (TWh) -0.0074 -0.0127 -0.0107 -0.0070 -0.0070 -0.0070 -0.0070 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0082 -0.0086 -0.0086 -0.0086 -0.0086 Renewables (TWh) 0.0007 -0.0011 -0.0052 -0.0139 -0.0139 -0.0139 -0.0139 Total (TWh) -0.0175 -0.0326 -0.0402 -0.0404 -0.0404 -0.0404 -0.0404

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0005 -0.0012 -0.0019 -0.0027 -0.0027 -0.0027 -0.0027 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0005 -0.0006 -0.0006 -0.0006 -0.0006 Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0001 0.0005 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 Nuclear (GW) -0.0002 -0.0006 -0.0010 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 -0.0016 Renewables (GW) -0.0003 -0.0006 -0.0008 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 -0.0009 Total (GW) -0.0012 -0.0026 -0.0037 -0.0047 -0.0047 -0.0047 -0.0047

14-10

### Table 14.3.12 TSL 4 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case

Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption
Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0198 -0.0370 -0.0458 -0.0463 -0.0463 -0.0463 -0.0463

Total U.S. Electricity Generation
Coal (TWh) -0.0122 -0.0211 -0.0182 -0.0124 -0.0124 -0.0124 -0.0124
Petroleum (TWh) -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0003 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001
Gas (TWh) -0.0084 -0.0145 -0.0123 -0.0080 -0.0080 -0.0080 -0.0080
Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0094 -0.0099 -0.0099 -0.0099 -0.0099
Renewables (TWh) 0.0008 -0.0012 -0.0059 -0.0159 -0.0159 -0.0159 -0.0159
Total (TWh) -0.0200 -0.0373 -0.0460 -0.0462 -0.0462 -0.0462 -0.0462

Installed Generating Capacity
Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0006 -0.0013 -0.0021 -0.0031 -0.0031 -0.0031 -0.0031 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0006 -0.0007 -0.0007 -0.0007 -0.0007
Combustion Turbines (GW) 0.0000 0.0002 0.0006 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012
Nuclear (GW) -0.0002 -0.0006 -0.0012 -0.0018 -0.0018 -0.0018 -0.0018
Renewables (GW) -0.0003 -0.0007 -0.0009 -0.0010 -0.0010 -0.0010 -0.0010
Total (GW) -0.0014 -0.0030 -0.0043 -0.0053 -0.0053 -0.0053 -0.0053



### Table 14.3.13 TSL 5 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0534 -0.0999 -0.1238 -0.1251 -0.1251 -0.1251 -0.1251

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0329 -0.0571 -0.0490 -0.0336 -0.0336 -0.0336 -0.0336 Petroleum (TWh) -0.0006 -0.0010 -0.0007 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 Gas (TWh) -0.0227 -0.0392 -0.0332 -0.0216 -0.0216 -0.0216 -0.0216 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0253 -0.0266 -0.0266 -0.0266 -0.0266 Renewables (TWh) 0.0023 -0.0033 -0.0160 -0.0429 -0.0429 -0.0429 -0.0429 Total (TWh) -0.0540 -0.1007 -0.1243 -0.1248 -0.1248 -0.1248 -0.1248

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0016 -0.0036 -0.0058 -0.0083 -0.0083 -0.0083 -0.0083 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0006 -0.0012 -0.0016 -0.0019 -0.0019 -0.0019 -0.0019 Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0001 0.0004 0.0015 0.0033 0.0033 0.0033 0.0033 Nuclear (GW) -0.0007 -0.0017 -0.0031 -0.0049 -0.0049 -0.0049 -0.0049 Renewables (GW) -0.0009 -0.0019 -0.0025 -0.0027 -0.0027 -0.0027 -0.0027 Total (GW) -0.0038 -0.0080 -0.0115 -0.0144 -0.0144 -0.0144 -0.0144

14-11

### Table 14.3.14 TSL 6 Utility Impacts for Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from Reference Case Extrapolation

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) -0.0594 -0.1111 -0.1377 -0.1392 -0.1392 -0.1392 -0.1392

Total U.S. Electricity Generation Coal (TWh) -0.0366 -0.0636 -0.0546 -0.0373 -0.0373 -0.0373 -0.0373 Petroleum (TWh) -0.0007 -0.0012 -0.0008 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0002 Gas (TWh) -0.0253 -0.0437 -0.0370 -0.0240 -0.0240 -0.0240 -0.0240 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0000 0.0000 -0.0281 -0.0296 -0.0296 -0.0296 -0.0296 Renewables (TWh) 0.0025 -0.0036 -0.0178 -0.0478 -0.0478 -0.0478 -0.0478 Total (TWh) -0.0601 -0.1120 -0.1383 -0.1389 -0.1389 -0.1389 -0.1389

Installed Generating Capacity Fossil Steam (GW) -0.0017 -0.0040 -0.0064 -0.0092 -0.0092 -0.0092 -0.0092 Combined Cycle (GW) -0.0007 -0.0013 -0.0018 -0.0021 -0.0021 -0.0021 -0.0021 Combustion Turbines (GW) -0.0001 0.0005 0.0017 0.0037 0.0037 0.0037 0.0037 Nuclear (GW) -0.0007 -0.0019 -0.0035 -0.0055 -0.0055 -0.0055 -0.0055 Renewables (GW) -0.0010 -0.0022 -0.0028 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 -0.0030 Total (GW) -0.0042 -0.0089 -0.0128 -0.0161 -0.0161 -0.0161 -0.0161



### 14.3.5 Impacts Related to Class B Beverage Vending Machine Equipment – TSL 1

Table 14.3.9 shows the impacts for all commercial refrigeration equipment under TSL 1. The top line of Table 14.3.9 shows that under TSL 1, total comme rcial electricity use declines by 0.0023 TWh in 2015 and by 0.0055 TWh in 2030.

As with Class A equipment, the reductions in to tal commercial electricity generation (shown as the last line in the sec ond panel of the table) are sligh tly different than the reductions in commercial electricity use (the first line of the table). As exp ected, total generation falls in a nearly continuous fashion with respect to the lower electricity demand prompted by the energy conservation standard. However, for the individu al generation technologies by fuel type, the responses are much more varied. In the long term ( e.g. , by 2030), the NEMS-BT model suggests that there may be significant changes compared to the reference case between plants serving primarily base load uses (principally coal a nd nuclear) and plants using other fuels. The BVM energy conservation standards for Class B equipmen t generally reduce base load (and thus offpeak) electricity demand. This change in the load profile reduces the attr activeness of coal and nuclear plants.

In the near term (through 2020), the NEMS -BT model suggests slightly different behavior. Electricity generation from natural gas plants is somewhat lower than that in the reference case. Nuclear genera tion is relatively unchanged, refl ecting the inability of that segment of the industry to adjust quickly to chan ges in demand. In general, because there is less opportunity over the next decade (through 2020) to bu ild new plants and optimize the electricity supply system to meet the altered character of the load, other institutio nal and economic factors may be more relevant in how various generating facilities are dispatched.

14-12

### The bottom panel of results in Table 14.3.9 shows the impacts on generating capacity by type of generation technology. Total genera tion capacity is lower by about 0.0006 GW in 2030, roughly a 0.00005 percent decline from the reference case.

The com ponents of total cap acity are distinguished by t ype of generation technology rather than strictly by fuel type. Fossil fuel steam plants are primarily coal fired but also include some petroleum use. High efficiency, combined-c ycle plants and combustion turbines both use natural gas.

Because coal plants are primarily used to meet base loads, the capacity of this type of plant shows a relatively large dec line over the next two decades. Co mpared to the reference case, the total generation capacity of coal plants decl ines (relative to the refe rence case) throughout the forecast period and is lower by about 0.0004 GW by 2030. Nuclear plants, which are also used to meet base loads, are projected to see a cap acity decline of 0.0002 GW by the same date.

As opposed to combined cycle power plant capacity, combustion turbine capacity is higher than the reference case. Because the ove rall load profile shows a higher proportion of weather-related electricity c onsumption, combustion turbine capacity in 2030 is about 0.0001 GW higher than the reference case. Combined cycle plants witness a decline in capacity of 0.0001 GW, as they tend to be slightly le ss weather-related than combustion turbines. Generation capacity from renewables slightly dec lines by 0.0001 GW. h



### 14.3.6 Results for TSL 2 through TSL 6 for Class B Equipment

Table 14.3.10 through Table 14.3.14 show the estimated impacts for TSLs 2–6. Corresponding to TSL 4, Table 14.3.12 shows the impacts associated with energy conservation

standards selected to m aximize energy savings while maintaining a net-present value that is nearly zero for the Class B BVM equipment. As s hown in this table, compared to the reference case, total generation in 2030 would declin e by about 0.046 TWh. The major reductions in generation occur at coal, nuclear, gas, and renewa ble energy facilities. Total generation capacity falls by 0.0053 GW relative to the re ference case or a bout 0.0005 percent.

Table 14.3.13 shows impacts under TSL 5 for all Cl ass B BVM products considered in

this rulema king. TSL 5 corresponds to an interm ediate energy efficiency level. In this intermediate case, the 2030 impact on total generati on is more than twice than that for TSL 4, or 0.125 TWh. Total capacity is lower about 0.014 GW compared to the reference case. The cause of this distinctly larger impact is because implementation of LED lighting at this TSL level significantly increases projected savings.

In TSL 6, the standards for the Class B BVM equipment set to the maximum (technologically feasible) level. The impacts from this case are shown in Table 14.3.14 . In this case, the 2030 impact on total gene ration is approxim ately 10 percen t greater than that of TSL 5, or 0.140 TWh. Total capacity is lower by about 0.016 GW compared to the reference case.

h Any comparison between the generation and capacity impact s shown in the table is complicated by the fact that various types of generating plants operate for different numbers of hours during the year. Base load plants, such as fossil fuel steam and nuclear, are relativ ely comparable as they op erate for roughly the same number of hours during the year. Because renewables comprise a number of technologi es with various operating hours, it is not surprising to see a divergence between the behavior of generation and capacity at this aggregate level.

14-1314-14 

### REFERENCE

1. U.S. Departme nt of Energy–Ene rgy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook

2008 . June 2008. Washington, D.C. DOE/EIA-0383(2008).