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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1997 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report Regular Report
Report Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1996 Wed., Jan. 29 Wed., Feb. 5
January 1997 Thurs., Feb. 27 Thurs., Mar 6
February 1997 Wed., March 26 Wed., Apr. 2
March 1997 Tue., Apr. 29 Tues., May 6
April 1997 Wed., May 28 Wed., June 4
May 1997 Wed., June 25 Wed., July 2
June 1997 Fri., July 25 Fri., Aug. 1
July 1997 Tue., Aug. 26 Thurs., Set. 4
August 1997 Thurs., Sept. 25 Thurs., Oct. 2
September 1997 Wed., Oct 29 Wed., Nov. 5
October 1997 Wed., Nov. 26 10:00 AM Fri., Dec. 5

November 1997 Tue., Dec. 23 10:00 AM Tues., Jan 6, 1998



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | tens.
Ni —WSsS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mee CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 February 27, 1997
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB97-33
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-O1

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
january 1
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $6.0 billion or 3.6 percent to $174.8 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.8 percent December decrease and is the first increase
since October. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 4.4 percent, following a 2.1 percent December decrease.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $3.6 billion or 14.9 percent to $27.7 billion, mostly due to
communication equipment and electronic components. This follows decreases of 14.1 percent in December and 10.3 percent in
November. Primary metals, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.8 billion or 5.5 percent to $16.0 billion, following a 4.9
ercent December increase. Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.2 percent to $42.0
illion, as increases in motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and parts more than offset decreases in shipbuilding and tanks and railroad
equipment. This follows a 0.9 percent December decline. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the second consecutive month,
increased $0.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $32.6 billion. This follows a 2.1 percent December increase.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in January, up two of the last three months, increased $2.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $170.7 billion,
following a 0.9 percent December decrease.

Transportation equipment, up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $1.7 billion or 4.5 percent to $40.0 billion, as a
large increase in motor vehicles and parts more than offset decreases in railroad equipment and aircraft and parts. This follows a 2.1
percent December decrease. Primary metals, up for the fourth consecutive month, increased $0.5 billion or 3.0 percent to $15.7 billion,
following a 0.7 percent December increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.9 billion or 3.2 percent to $26.9
billion, the second consecutive monthly decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down three of the last four months, decreased
$0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $32.2 billion, following a 2.0 percent December increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in January increased $4.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $493.0 billion. This
follows a $0.1 billion December increase and is the eighth increase in the last nine months.

Transportation equipment, up eight of the last nine months, increased $2.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $254.7 billion, due to aircraft and
arts. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the first month since October, increased $0.8 billion or 1.6 percent to $49.6
illion, following a 7.0 percent December decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month since August, increased

$0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $72.4 billion, following a 0.5 percent December decrease. Primary metals, also up for the first month

since August, increased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $30.7 billion, following a slight December decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in January decreased $1.9 billion or 23.7 percent to $6.2 billion,
following an 8.0 percent December decrease. Shipments, up two of the last three months, increased 0.5 percent to $6.1 billion,
following a 2.0 percent December decrease. Unfilled orders, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.1 billion to $110.4
billion, following a 1.8 percent December increase.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in January increased $2.1 billion or 4.7 percent to $45.8 billion,
following a 0.3 percent December decrease. This is the first increase since September. Shipments decreased $1.2 billion or 2.7 percent
to $43.4 billion. This follows a 1.4 percent December increase and is the first decline since October. Unfilled orders, up for the first
month since October, increased $2.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $253.0 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.4
billion or 3.9 percent to $38.2 billion, the first increase since October; shipments decreased $1.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $37.5 billion,
the first decline since October; unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $96.5 billion, the first increase since October.

@ REVISED DECEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$315.4 billion (revised from $315.6 billion); new orders, $315.7 billion (revised from $315.9 billion); unfilled orders, $514.6 billion
(unrevised from $514.6 billion); and total inventories, $437.9 billion (revised from $438.2 billion).

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1997 RELEASE DATES)
Our internet address is http://www.census. gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 6, 1997. The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for March 26, 1997. This report is
available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jan, Dec, Nov, } Dec. | Nov. | Oct- Jan, Dec, Jan,
1997! 1996" 1996 | Jan? | Dec! | Nov 1997 1996" 1996 | Jan.97/96
DURABLE GOODS
hipments 0... 2.0... 170,696 | 168,656 | 170,144 09] +08} 151,815} 170,334] 141,516
New orders 2202220022220... ] 17agir | 1687766 | 171:888| — +3.6 “18 -L7 | 162:180 | 170;675 | 155,694 +42
Unfilled orders | 492972 | 488.857 | 488,747 8 00] +04 | 4947837 | 484472 | 465,893,
Excluding defense :
Shipments... 164,595 | 162,584 | 163,949 | +12 -08| +05 | 146,734] 163,009 | 136,541 475
New orders. |) 1681657 | 160,702 | 163123 | +5.0 “15 “38 | 157,005 | 159{018 | 148,689 +56
Unfilled orders” 382,552 | 378,490 | 380,372} +11 + 3847300 | 3741029 | 3607752 +65
With unfilled orders :
Shipments ae 138,624 138,110 138,737 +04 0.5 +14 122,144 143,934 114,701 +6.5
New orders 142:739 | 138/220 | 140,481 | +33 16] -=1:7 | 1323509 | 1447275 | 1281879 +28
Primary metals :
Shipments 15,658} 15,197} 15,096 | 3.0] +07] +08] 14.958] 14,036 | 14,101
New orders. 1): 16.028 | 15,190} 14479 | +3:5] +49] +10 | 16,785 | 14.792 | 15516 +82
Unfilled orders: | | 30,674 | 30,304 | 30311 | +12 0.0 20 | 31,073 | 29,246 | 25690 7
Ingustrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments. . . =| 32,180 | 32,520 | 31,872 +2.0 0, 27,170 | 35,717 | 25,749 45.5
New orders Bi 32556 | 32194 | 31/543. | +h +2 709 | 28584 | 341523 | 27'580 436
Unfilled orders 72434 | 72058 | 72/384 0. 05 + Ball | 71997 | 72395 +14
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments : a 26,856 | 27,743 | 28,407 32 23] +29] 23,153 } 30,823 | 22,521 +28
New orders. a 27660 | 24071 | 28012 | +149] 141] -103 | 26,381 | 25,631 | 24,869 +611
Unfilled orders’: Ble 49/566 | 48,762 | 52434 | +16 70) -07 | S021] 47,193 | 51,333 “18
‘Transportation equipment : :
Shipments. . 39,982 | 38,266 | 39,102 5 9] 36315 | 37sss | 32,649 | +112
New orders 7034] 41550 | 411933 | +12 09] +08 87891 | 423309 | 40/349 -36
Unfilled orders 254,668 | 252616 | 249/332 13 1 2547659 | 252,083 | 228/861 +113
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total:
Shipments 49,465 | 50,629 | $0,140 23 +28] 40,281 | 60,664 | 37,467
New orders 51971 | 51805 | 52,650 | +03 “1.6 04} 44170 | 63,151 | 47.279
Unfilled orders 363411 | 360,905 | 359,729 | + +0.7 | 364;360 | 360,471 | 340,
Nondefense :
Shipments veces 43,364 337 | 43,945 27| +14] +19] 35200] $3,339] 32,492
New orders. || Pitti} asgr7 | 43,741 31885 | +47 -03 “76 | 38/995 1494 | 40,274 “3.2
Untitled orders’: | fi] 2523901 | 250538 | 251354] +10 0.0 | 253823 | 250/028 | 234,956 0
Exgluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . 37,530 | 38,519 | 38,132 +10] +16] 30,802 | 45,212 | 29,226 +54
New orders 38153 | 36,724 | 37584 | +39 23 “22 | 32,767 | 42388 | 31,838 +29
Unfilled orders 96:513 | 95,800 | 97,685 | +06 “1 z 97345 | 95380 | 97936 -06
Defense :
Shipments 6,101 6,072 6195 | 40.5 20] +92 3,081 7,325 4,975 1
New orders": 6154 8,064 8.765 | -23:.7 “80 | +633 S175 | 11.657 7,005 26.1
Unfilled orders’: 110,420 | 110,367 | 108/375 0.0 +24 | 110537 | 110,443 | 105,141

(NA) Nox available, * Revised.

* Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for tading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders ate as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted fort
2 Based on advance sample, Fstimates of manufactures’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage

response and nowreportng. Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling err cannek be calculated, Further deals on survey design, methodology. and data limitations are contained in our most recent anos
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(95). "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1995

"he Capital God Industries include Nondefense ordhance nd acessories, eam engines an bos, Inemalcmtuton engines, consti ming an macrialhuning equipment, meawuring rain) wes nd

y, general industrial machinery, computer and office nt, refrigeration, beating and servie industry machinery, electrical ransmission and on equipment, electrical - eomm ‘equipment

complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aiveraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

‘Defense capital goods include ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

day or calendar-mooth variations

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Jan. | Jan, 1996-| Year ago Jan. | Jan. 1996-| Year ago Tan. | Jan. 1996-

Jan. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Dec. 1996 | Jan. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Dec. 1996| Jan. 1996| 1992-1996 | Dec. 1996

Durable goods . Ld 06 03 1 08 04 0.0 0.1 01

Primary metals . 07 04 04 18 13 10 05 05 05

Industrial machinery and equipment . 08 09 07 25 3 10 oa 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . ... 26 Ll 07 19 08 10 ou 03 04

‘Transportation equipment |: On 04 06 03 06 1a ol ol 02

Nondefense capita goods . 16 Ls 06 12 13 10 on 1 02

Defense capital goods... 14 08 Ld 35 57 52 02 03 03

Note: The re

sare the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months snecified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

190 190
New Orders

180 F- - - ~~ re ee re ree ree reed Shipments |-| 180

170

160

150 F- - - ------ 2222-2 eee eee eee ee eee eee eee -----4 150

140 L 1 1 a i L 1 abe 1 1 L L 1 140

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
Jan. 1995 - Jan. 1997

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

53F----------------------------------- New Orders |~{ 53

Shipments

48

43

38

33 L 1 L L L 1 L 1 L L L 1 33
Jan Mar May = Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul Sep Nov Jan

Jan. 1995 - Jan. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.