FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2007, AT 8:30 A.M. EST 

Chris Savage or Jessica Young 

Manufacturing and Construction Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (07)-10 

CB07-165

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

October 2007 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in 

October decreased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $214.5 

billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This 

was the third consecutive monthly decrease and 

followed a 1.4 percent September decrease. Excluding 

transportation, new orders decreased 0.7 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.9 percent. 

 

 Computers and electronic products, down two of the 

last three months, had the largest decrease, $2.5 billion 

or 8.4 percent to $27.1 billion. This was led by 

communications equipment, which decreased $1.4 

billion. 

 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, 

up following two consecutive monthly decreases, 

increased $1.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $213.4 billion. 

This followed a 1.7 percent September decrease. 

 Computers and electronic products, up three of the last 

four months, had the largest increase, $0.6 billion or 1.8 

percent to $33.5 billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

October, up twenty-nine of the last thirty months, 

increased $7.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $779.3 billion. 

This was at the highest level since the series was first 

stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.1 

percent September increase. 

 Transportation equipment, up twenty-one consecutive 

months, had the largest increase, $5.2 billion or 1.2 

percent to $451.3 billion. 

Inventories 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, 

up three of the last four months, increased $0.8 billion or 

0.2 percent to $314.3 billion. This was also at the 

highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS 

basis in 1992 and followed a 0.3 percent September 

increase. 

 Fabricated metal products, up three of the last four 

months, had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 0.9 

percent to $42.0 billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in October 

decreased $2.3 billion or 3.1 percent to $72.5 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $67.6 

billion. Unfilled orders increased $4.9 billion or 1.1 

percent to $439.4 billion. Inventories increased $0.4 

billion or 0.3 percent to $123.4 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in October 

increased $1.3 billion or 16.1 percent to $9.3 billion. 

Shipments increased 0.5 percent to $8.1 billion. 

Unfilled orders increased $1.2 billion or 0.8 percent to 

$147.5 billion. Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 1.5 

percent to $17.4 billion. 

Revised September Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $420.9 

billion (revised from $420.7 billion); shipments, $417.7 

billion (revised from $417.4 billion); unfilled orders, 

$771.8 billion (revised from $771.6 billion); and total 

inventories, $519.7 billion (revised from $519.5 billion).

Figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor 

manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>.

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on December 5, 2007, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The

advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled for release on December 27, 2007, at 8:30 a.m. EST. See back page 

for survey description and 2008 release schedule. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Change

2007 2 2007 r 2007 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2007 2 2007 r 2006 2007 2006 07/06

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments............................... 213,380 212,167 215,919 0.6 -1.7 -1.9 220,014 219,417 214,118 2,131,067 2,121,944 0.4

 New Orders 4

........................... 214,452 215,348 218,362 -0.4 -1.4 -5.3 219,863 218,280 213,221 2,151,868 2,136,319 0.7

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments............................... 156,504 155,527 156,291 0.6 -0.5 -0.6 160,239 161,477 155,717 1,554,892 1,546,690 0.5

 New Orders 4

........................... 152,425 153,473 151,862 -0.7 1.1 -1.8 156,362 157,286 151,344 1,513,531 1,511,544 0.1

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments............................... 203,520 202,535 205,787 0.5 -1.6 -1.9 210,431 209,027 204,661 2,034,667 2,029,504 0.3

 New Orders 4

........................... 203,445 205,207 204,675 -0.9 0.3 -6.3 208,935 209,350 204,353 2,056,907 2,038,494 0.9

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments............................... 149,427 149,173 150,674 0.2 -1.0 -1.5 151,891 155,604 147,012 1,487,541 1,460,226 1.9

 New Orders 4

........................... 156,989 157,894 159,385 -0.6 -0.9 -6.4 158,700 160,010 153,681 1,572,430 1,542,107 2.0

 Primary metals:

 Shipments............................... 20,422 20,072 20,070 1.7 0.0 -2.5 21,163 19,914 20,039 204,778 197,355 3.8

 New Orders.............................. 20,501 19,906 19,813 3.0 0.5 -2.9 20,864 19,233 19,417 203,375 197,531 3.0

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments............................... 26,128 25,964 26,484 0.6 -2.0 -0.7 27,343 26,609 26,238 263,828 257,741 2.4

 New Orders.............................. 26,666 26,067 26,679 2.3 -2.3 -1.6 27,403 26,100 25,499 267,726 263,210 1.7

 Machinery:

 Shipments............................... 28,110 28,574 27,979 -1.6 2.1 -1.3 28,339 28,402 27,967 277,712 275,013 1.0

 New Orders.............................. 29,651 30,170 28,996 -1.7 4.0 -4.1 30,747 29,317 30,881 287,436 287,431 0.0

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments............................... 33,542 32,944 33,137 1.8 -0.6 0.7 33,172 37,057 31,793 324,859 323,724 0.4

 New Orders 4

........................... 27,050 29,536 28,014 -8.4 5.4 -1.1 26,522 33,733 24,937 267,096 265,770 0.5

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments............................... 5,647 5,888 5,335 -4.1 10.4 16.0 5,690 6,766 4,187 53,036 54,342 -2.4

 New Orders.............................. 5,072 5,984 5,562 -15.2 7.6 14.1 5,115 6,862 4,227 53,024 54,013 -1.8 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments............................... 5,220 5,647 5,709 -7.6 -1.1 2.3 4,789 6,846 5,158 53,340 54,168 -1.5

 New Orders.............................. 4,772 6,163 5,985 -22.6 3.0 -11.4 4,582 7,748 4,987 55,527 56,655 -2.0

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments............................... 6,490 5,540 6,268 17.1 -11.6 -8.5 6,960 5,543 7,566 64,088 67,506 -5.1

 New Orders 4

........................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments............................... 10,944 10,817 10,928 1.2 -1.0 -0.3 11,158 11,584 10,441 108,738 102,356 6.2

 New Orders.............................. 10,924 10,489 10,847 4.1 -3.3 1.5 11,308 10,821 10,979 110,781 106,601 3.9

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments............................... 56,876 56,640 59,628 0.4 -5.0 -5.2 59,775 57,940 58,401 576,175 575,254 0.2

 New Orders.............................. 62,027 61,875 66,500 0.2 -7.0 -12.4 63,501 60,994 61,877 638,337 624,775 2.2

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments............................... 37,713 38,320 40,211 -1.6 -4.7 -6.9 41,844 38,158 42,255 396,420 410,159 -3.3

 New Orders.............................. 37,472 37,985 39,342 -1.4 -3.4 -8.3 41,385 37,629 42,140 393,666 411,829 -4.4 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments............................... 9,369 8,815 9,704 6.3 -9.2 0.8 8,389 9,246 6,709 85,831 72,267 18.8

 New Orders.............................. 14,263 15,042 12,996 -5.2 15.7 -41.0 11,880 15,489 10,785 149,336 114,901 30.0

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments............................... 3,522 3,276 3,449 7.5 -5.0 -10.3 3,339 3,714 3,319 33,366 31,878 4.7

 New Orders.............................. 3,653 4,087 5,745 -10.6 -28.9 44.5 3,280 3,633 2,981 30,593 28,888 5.9

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments............................... 37,358 37,156 37,693 0.5 -1.4 -0.2 39,064 37,911 39,239 374,977 390,501 -4.0

 New Orders.............................. 37,633 37,305 37,513 0.9 -0.6 -0.9 39,518 38,082 39,631 377,117 391,001 -3.6

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments............................... 75,700 76,081 75,888 -0.5 0.3 1.1 74,582 80,556 71,728 736,626 730,197 0.9

 New Orders.............................. 81,778 82,841 82,318 -1.3 0.6 -9.9 81,056 84,717 78,994 810,100 794,541 2.0

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments............................... 67,583 68,006 67,451 -0.6 0.8 1.6 66,621 72,015 63,792 655,934 652,412 0.5

 New Orders.............................. 72,511 74,858 71,417 -3.1 4.8 -12.0 71,656 77,992 71,664 731,241 711,107 2.8

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 61,762 62,521 61,472 -1.2 1.7 1.9 61,591 66,425 59,837 603,993 607,122 -0.5

 New Orders........................ 61,977 63,450 62,677 -2.3 1.2 0.1 63,197 66,469 63,951 618,648 629,576 -1.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments............................... 8,117 8,075 8,437 0.5 -4.3 -2.8 7,961 8,541 7,936 80,692 77,785 3.7

 New Orders.............................. 9,267 7,983 10,901 16.1 -26.8 6.3 9,400 6,725 7,330 78,859 83,434 -5.5

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design,

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-3(06), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 2001-2006."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipmen

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct 2007/

2007 2 2007 r 2007 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2007 2 2007 r 2006 2006

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 779,334 771,772 763,051 1.0 1.1 1.2 766,731 759,922 649,286 18.1

 Total Inventories....................... 314,346 313,591 312,577 0.2 0.3 -0.1 315,048 312,389 308,521 2.1

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 328,003 325,592 322,106 0.7 1.1 0.6 323,571 320,488 295,812 9.4

 Total Inventories....................... 236,157 235,631 234,920 0.2 0.3 -0.2 235,806 233,999 233,081 1.2

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 617,717 611,302 603,090 1.0 1.4 0.9 609,807 604,343 498,073 22.4

 Total Inventories....................... 292,808 292,240 291,528 0.2 0.2 -0.1 293,356 290,855 286,653 2.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 779,334 771,772 763,051 1.0 1.1 1.2 766,731 759,922 649,286 18.1

 Total Inventories....................... 248,404 247,612 246,913 0.3 0.3 0.1 249,071 246,627 241,391 3.2

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 26,425 26,346 26,512 0.3 -0.6 -1.0 25,289 25,588 26,416 -4.3

 Total Inventories....................... 31,123 31,397 31,651 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 30,836 31,235 31,120 -0.9

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 57,762 57,224 57,121 0.9 0.2 0.3 57,023 56,963 53,597 6.4

 Total Inventories....................... 41,993 41,604 41,255 0.9 0.8 -0.5 41,529 41,167 40,643 2.2

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 88,058 86,517 84,921 1.8 1.9 1.2 86,612 84,204 74,689 16.0

 Total Inventories....................... 51,691 51,521 51,120 0.3 0.8 0.3 51,666 51,179 48,864 5.7

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 117,655 117,657 115,525 0.0 1.8 1.0 116,517 116,207 106,642 9.3

 Total Inventories....................... 43,197 43,274 43,116 -0.2 0.4 0.3 43,784 43,073 44,580 -1.8

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 3,395 3,970 3,874 -14.5 2.5 6.2 3,395 3,970 3,281 3.5

 Total Inventories....................... 4,425 4,483 4,444 -1.3 0.9 1.0 4,586 4,467 4,550 0.8

 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 35,230 35,678 35,162 -1.3 1.5 0.8 35,077 35,284 32,620 7.5

 Total Inventories....................... 7,170 7,271 7,368 -1.4 -1.3 2.2 7,317 7,223 7,828 -6.5

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4....................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 23,949 23,969 24,297 -0.1 -1.3 -0.3 23,779 23,629 21,884 8.7

 Total Inventories....................... 14,496 14,294 14,351 1.4 -0.4 -0.6 14,327 13,886 13,935 2.8

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 451,331 446,180 440,945 1.2 1.2 1.6 443,160 439,434 353,474 25.4

 Total Inventories....................... 78,189 77,960 77,657 0.3 0.4 0.1 79,242 78,390 75,440 5.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 18,955 19,196 19,531 -1.3 -1.7 -4.3 18,213 18,672 19,595 -7.1

 Total Inventories....................... 24,152 24,239 24,373 -0.4 -0.5 -1.1 24,145 24,315 25,269 -4.4 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 285,541 280,647 274,420 1.7 2.3 1.2 282,055 278,564 199,035 41.7

 Total Inventories....................... 31,607 31,475 31,125 0.4 1.1 1.1 32,402 31,696 27,156 19.3

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,046 43,915 43,104 0.3 1.9 5.6 42,250 42,309 39,978 5.7

 Total Inventories....................... 12,791 12,852 12,823 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 12,918 12,981 12,732 1.5

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,154 13,879 13,730 2.0 1.1 -1.3 14,351 13,897 12,584 14.0

 Total Inventories....................... 53,657 53,541 53,427 0.2 0.2 -0.3 53,664 53,459 53,939 -0.5

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 586,895 580,817 574,057 1.0 1.2 1.1 577,364 570,890 475,431 21.4

 Total Inventories....................... 140,876 140,209 139,507 0.5 0.5 0.3 141,892 139,786 134,945 5.1

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 439,377 434,449 427,597 1.1 1.6 0.9 433,998 428,963 335,833 29.2

 Total Inventories....................... 123,441 123,026 122,676 0.3 0.3 0.4 124,430 122,549 117,851 5.6

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 181,615 181,400 180,471 0.1 0.5 0.7 179,575 177,969 161,511 11.2

 Total Inventories................... 99,309 98,953 98,708 0.4 0.2 0.3 99,650 98,174 96,359 3.4

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 147,518 146,368 146,460 0.8 -0.1 1.7 143,366 141,927 139,598 2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 17,435 17,183 16,831 1.5 2.1 -0.8 17,462 17,237 17,094 2.2

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4 

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations), 

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value), and 

inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-in-process, and finished goods). The M3 includes 

approximately 4,200 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous 

companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample, these 89 

categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the month-tomonth changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the month-tomonth movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the survey show 

that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 62 percent of the shipments estimates at the total 

manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is based on a 

voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,200 reporting units and provide an 

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a 

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,200 companies would 

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a 

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore, 

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are 

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for 

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full report. 

Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made 

later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. 

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.

2008 Release Dates for M3 Survey 

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M. 

Nov 2007 December 27, 2007 January 3, 2008 

Dec 2007 January 29, 2008 February 4, 2008 

Jan 2008 February 27, 2008 March 5, 2008 

Feb 2008 March 26, 2008 April 2, 2008 

Mar 2008 April 24, 2008 May 2, 2008 

Apr 2008 May 28, 2008 June 3, 2008 

May 2008 June 25, 2008 July 2, 2008 

Jun 2008 July 25, 2008 August 4, 2008 

Jul 2008 August 27, 2008 September 3, 2008

Aug 2008 September 25, 2008 October 2, 2008 

Sep 2008 October 29, 2008 November 4, 2008

Oct 2008 November 26, 2008 December 4, 2008

Nov 2008 December 24, 2008