DRAFT

Table 13.4.9 TMY System Load High Growth Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: 

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential Sector Energy Consumption a

Electricity Sales (TWh)b

1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,016

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.89 5.98 6.06

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.05 2.04

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.58 5.67 5.74

Other (Quads)c

2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93

Total U.S. Electric Generation d

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 2,691 3,195 3,670

Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 1,082 995 976

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556

Total (TWh)e

3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,270 5,780 6,337

Installed Generating Capacity f

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 382.0 448.7 511.3

Other Fossil (GW)g

281.5 450.9 473.6 433.9 456.3 484.2 517.5

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.7 127.6

Total (GW)h

789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,067.6 1,174.3 1,285.0

Low Growth Case

Table 13.4.16 TMY System Load Low Growth Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: 

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential Sector Energy Consumption a

Electricity Sales (TWh)b

1192 1365 1472 1561 1647 1711 1772

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.59 5.54 5.48

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.30 5.25 5.19

0900006480fa7774.xls/TMY System Load Kristina S Hamachi 1/27/20122:24 PM
Table 13.4.2. Standard Level 1 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref with TMY System Load

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,895 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.73 5.75 5.75 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.45 5.45 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,145 2,299 2,520 2,923 3,315 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,053 983 976 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,381 5,773 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.4 463.4 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.3 464.5 495.0 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.9 975.5 1,023.5 1,102.7 1,185.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

High Growth Case

Table 13.4.10. Standard Level 1 High Growth Forecast

0900006480fa7774.xls/Std1 Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012
Reference Case

Table 13.4.3. Standard Level A Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref with TMY System Load

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,895 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.72 5.75 5.75 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.45 5.45 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,145 2,299 2,520 2,923 3,315 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,053 984 976 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,381 5,773 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.3 463.4 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.3 464.6 495.1 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.9 975.5 1,023.5 1,102.8 1,185.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5

High Growth Case

Table 13.4.11. Standard Level A High Growth Forecast

0900006480fa7774.xls/StdA Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012
Table 13.4.4. Standard Level 2 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref with TMY System Load

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,896 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.72 5.74 5.73 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.42 5.44 5.43 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,145 2,299 2,519 2,922 3,315 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,054 985 977 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,382 5,774 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.1 412.2 463.4 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.7 465.2 495.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.8 975.5 1,023.8 1,103.3 1,186.6 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2

High Growth Case

Table 13.4.12. Standard Level 2 High Growth Forecast

0900006480fa7774.xls/Std2 Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012
Table 13.4.5. Standard Level B Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref with TMY System Load

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,704 1,803 1,904 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.3 9.5 11.7 12.4

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.66 5.62 5.54 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.22 -0.28 -0.30

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.04 1.98 1.95 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.37 5.33 5.25 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.21 -0.26 -0.28

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.85 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,144 2,296 2,514 2,917 3,314 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.6 -5.9 -6.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7

Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,018 1,057 993 985 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 4.1 10.0 8.5 8.5 8.5

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 485 494 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,025 5,385 5,780 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 3.5 7.2 7.2 7.2

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.8 357.5 411.4 463.3 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.6 473.0 431.0 445.0 470.6 503.0 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.9 6.4 8.4 8.4 8.4

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.8 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (GW) 789.5 968.7 1,010.6 975.7 1,026.5 1,107.9 1,193.6 Total (GW) 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.2 5.4 8.2 8.2 8.2

High Growth Case

Table 13.4.13. Standard Level B High Growth Forecast

0900006480fa7774.xls/StdB Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012
Table 13.4.6. Standard Level 4 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref with TMY System Load

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,704 1,803 1,904 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.3 9.4 11.7 12.3

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.66 5.62 5.54 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.22 -0.28 -0.31

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.04 1.98 1.95 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.36 5.32 5.25 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.21 -0.27 -0.29

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.84 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,144 2,296 2,514 2,917 3,314 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.7 -6.0 -6.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7

Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,018 1,057 993 985 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 4.2 10.3 8.7 8.7 8.7

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 485 494 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,025 5,385 5,780 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 3.6 7.4 7.4 7.4

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.8 357.5 411.4 463.3 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.6 473.0 431.0 445.1 470.8 503.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 4.0 6.6 8.6 8.6 8.6

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.8 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (GW) 789.5 968.7 1,010.6 975.7 1,026.6 1,108.0 1,193.8 Total (GW) 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.3 5.5 8.4 8.4 8.4

High Growth Case

Table 13.4.14. Standard Level 4 High Growth Forecast

0900006480fa7774.xls/Std4 Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012
Table 13.4.7. Standard Level 5 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref with TMY System Load

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,710 1,815 1,922 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 17.6 26.7 33.6 36.0

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.57 5.44 5.26 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.32 -0.50 -0.64 -0.69

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.03 1.95 1.91 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07 -0.08

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.28 5.15 4.99 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.31 -0.47 -0.60 -0.66

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.92 1.85 1.81 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,143 2,293 2,507 2,909 3,314 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.7 -12.7 -13.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5

Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,020 1,062 1,005 995 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.9 8.9 21.8 18.5 18.5 18.5

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 104 103 106 109 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 486 496 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,024 5,389 5,789 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -2.0 7.6 15.7 15.7 15.7

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.9 356.8 410.2 463.1 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -1.4 -2.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.3 472.7 431.2 449.4 478.1 512.8 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.4 8.3 13.9 18.2 18.2 18.2

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.1 119.8 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (GW) 789.5 968.4 1,010.2 975.9 1,030.3 1,114.1 1,203.2 Total (GW) 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 0.4 7.0 11.6 17.8 17.8 17.8

High Growth Case

Table 13.4.15. Standard Level 5 High Growth Forecast

0900006480fa7774.xls/Std5 Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012
Table EA4. Power Sector Emissions Impacts Forecast (Reference)

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO2007 Ref with TMY System Load

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

AEO2007 Reference Case with TMY Extrapolation

CO2 (Mt/a)a,b 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 2,855.0 3,095.0 3,353.0

Standard Level 1

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 2,854.9 3,095.1 3,353.3 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3

Standard Level A

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.0 2,854.9 3,095.2 3,353.3 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

Standard Level 2

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,507.0 2,677.9 2,854.7 3,095.4 3,353.9 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9

Standard Level B

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 2,853.3 3,097.8 3,358.6 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.8 5.6 5.6 5.6

Standard Level 4

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.2 2,853.3 3,097.9 3,358.8 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.9 5.8 5.8 5.8

Standard Level 5

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,506.4 2,676.3 2,851.4 3,101.1 3,365.2 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.7 -3.6 6.1 12.2 12.2 12.2

High Growth Case

Table EA5. Power Sector Emissions for Standard (High Growth)

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO2007 High Growth with TMY System Load

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

AEO2007 High Growth Case with TMY System Load Extrapolation

CO2 (Mt/a)a,b 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.0 3,300.0 3,609.0

Standard Level 1

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.2 3,300.5 3,609.9 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9

Standard Level A

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.2 3,300.6 3,610.1 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1

Standard Level 2

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.0 2,993.6 3,301.5 3,611.9 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.9

Standard Level B

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,530.8 2,754.0 2,997.1 3,309.9 3,628.2 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 4.1 9.9 19.2 19.2 19.2

Standard Level 4

CO2 (Mt/a) 2,279.0 2,375.0 2,530.8 2,754.0 2,997.2 3,310.2 3,628.7 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 4.2 10.2 19.7 19.7 19.7

Standard Level 5

0900006480fa7774.xls/Power Sector Emissions Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012
Reference Case

Table EA7. Change in Household Emissions for Standard (Reference)

AEO2007 Standard Case Results

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Extrapolation

Standard Level 1

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.36 -0.56 -0.56 -0.56

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.30 -0.46 -0.46 -0.46

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Standard Level A

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.46 -0.70 -0.70 -0.70

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.38 -0.57 -0.57 -0.57

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

Standard Level 2

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.58 -1.21 -1.85 -1.85 -1.85

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.48 -0.99 -1.51 -1.51 -1.51

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11

Standard Level B

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.94 -8.18 -12.52 -12.52 -12.52

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.28 -6.79 -10.39 -10.39 -10.39

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.27 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38

Standard Level 4

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.06 -8.42 -12.89 -12.89 -12.89

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.38 -6.98 -10.68 -10.68 -10.68

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.46 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63

Standard Level 5

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.99 -18.76 -28.78 -28.78 -28.78

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.38 -15.38 -23.59 -23.59 -23.59

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.35 -2.74 -3.94 -3.94 -3.94

High Growth Case

Table EA8. Change in Household Emissions for Standard (High Growth)

AEO2007 Standard Case Results

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Extrapolation

Standard Level 1

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.38 -0.59 -0.59 -0.59

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.31 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Standard Level A

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.49 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.08 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11

Standard Level 2

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.62 -1.28 -1.97 -1.97 -1.97

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.51 -1.04 -1.61 -1.61 -1.61

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12

Standard Level B

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.20 -8.70 -13.42 -13.42 -13.42

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.49 -7.22 -11.12 -11.12 -11.12

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.28 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40

Standard Level 4

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.32 -8.95 -13.80 -13.80 -13.80

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.59 -7.42 -11.43 -11.43 -11.43

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.48 -0.65 -0.65 -0.65

Standard Level 5

0900006480fa7774.xls/Household Emisions Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.62 -20.02 -30.89 -30.89 -30.89

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.89 -16.41 -25.31 -25.31 -25.31

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.42 -2.87 -4.15 -4.15 -4.15

Low Growth Case

Table EA9. Change in Household Emissions for Standard (Low Growth)

AEO2007 Standard Case Results

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Extrapolation

Standard Level 1

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.34 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.28 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Standard Level A

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.43 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.35 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

Standard Level 2

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.55 -1.11 -1.67 -1.67 -1.67

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.45 -0.91 -1.36 -1.36 -1.36

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11

Standard Level B

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.69 -7.47 -11.18 -11.18 -11.18

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.08 -6.20 -9.26 -9.26 -9.26

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.25 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34

Standard Level 4

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.81 -7.70 -11.52 -11.52 -11.52

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.17 -6.38 -9.53 -9.53 -9.53

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.44 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58

Standard Level 5

CO

2 (Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.38 -17.13 -25.80 -25.80 -25.80

NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -6.88 -14.04 -21.13 -21.13 -21.13

SO

2 (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.29 -2.57 -3.65 -3.65 -3.65

0900006480fa7774.xls/Household Emisions Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012
NEMS-BT Resultsa Cumulative 2000-

2030

Cumulative 2015-

2038 Exogenous Resultsa Cumulative 2000-2030

Cumulative 2015-

2038

Standard Level 1 Standard Level 1

CO2 (Mt) 0.6 2.8 CO2 (Mt) -4.4 -8.9

NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3

SO2 (kt) 0.0 0.0

Standard Level A Standard Level A

CO2 (Mt) 0.7 3.4 CO2 (Mt) -5.6 -11.2

NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2

SO2 (kt) -1.0 -1.8

Standard Level 2 Standard Level 2

CO2 (Mt) 2.1 9.3 CO2 (Mt) -14.5 -29.2

NOx (kt) -11.8 -23.9

SO2 (kt) -1.1 -2.0

Standard Level B Standard Level B

CO2 (Mt) 14.0 61.2 CO2 (Mt) -98.1 -198.3

NOx (kt) -81.5 -164.6

SO2 (kt) -3.2 -6.2

Standard Level 4 Standard Level 4

CO2 (Mt) 14.3 62.8 CO2 (Mt) -101.0 -204.1

NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2

SO2 (kt) -5.5 -10.5

Standard Level 5 Standard Level 5

CO2 (Mt) 30.4 133.1 CO2 (Mt) -224.9 -455.1

NOx (kt) -184.4 -373.1

SO2 (kt) -32.4 -63.9

High Growth Case

NEMS-BT Resultsa Cumulative 2000-

2030

Cumulative 2015-

2038 Exogenous Resultsa Cumulative 2000-2030

Cumulative 2015-

2038

Standard Level 1 Standard Level 1

CO2 (Mt) 5.4 12.6 CO2 (Mt) -4.6 -9.4

NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7

SO2 (kt) 0.0 0.0

Standard Level A Standard Level A

CO2 (Mt) 6.6 15.3 CO2 (Mt) -5.9 -11.8

NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6

SO2 (kt) -1.0 -1.8

Standard Level 2 Standard Level 2

CO2 (Mt) 17.6 41.2 CO2 (Mt) -15.4 -31.1

NOx (kt) -12.6 -25.4

SO2 (kt) -1.1 -2.0

Standard Level B Standard Level B

CO2 (Mt) 116.1 271.3 CO2 (Mt) -104.6 -211.9

NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8

SO2 (kt) -3.3 -6.5

Standard Level 4 Standard Level 4

CO2 (Mt) 119.1 278.3 CO2 (Mt) -107.6 -218.0

NOx (kt) -89.2 -180.6

SO2 (kt) -5.7 -10.9

Standard Level 5 Standard Level 5

CO2 (Mt) 251.8 589.2 CO2 (Mt) -240.5 -487.6

NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6

SO2 (kt) -34.0 -67.2

Table EA.10. Cumulative Power Sector 

Emissions Impacts Relative to the Base Case1

Table EA.13. Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts 

Forecast Relative to the Base Case

Table EA.11. Cumulative Power Sector 

Emissions Impacts Relative to the Base Case1

Table EA.14. Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts 

Forecast Relative to the Base Case

0900006480fa7774.xls/Cumulative Emissions Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012