ECONOMICS
ES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE
WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS

WHA

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 May 26, 1999

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB99-97

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(99)-04

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
April 1999
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $4.5 billion or 2.3 percent to $194.4 billion,
the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.7 percent March increase. Excluding
transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 5.5 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the large: t decrease, $5.9 billion or 12.4 percent to $41.6 billion; all component industries decreased.
ic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $33.9
billion, following a 4.5 percent March inc! Industrial machinery and equipment, up four of the last six months, increased $1.3
billion or 3.5 percent to $39.7 billion. This follows a 3.5 percent March increase. Primary metals increased $0.2 billion or 1.3
percent to $14.7 billion, following a 0.6 percent March decrease. Instruments and related products also increased.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in April decreased $1.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $196.9 billion, following a 1.9
percent March increase. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.2 billion or 2.5 percent to $48.0 billion; decreases in motor vehicles and
parts and railroad equipment more than offset increases in aircraft and parts and shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 3.6 percent
March increase and is the largest decrease since the 6.2 percent decline in June 1998. Primary metals, down eleven of the las
fourteen months, decreased $0.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $14.2 billion. This follows a 1.8 percent March increase. Industrial
machinery and equipment, up for the third consecutive month, increased $0.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $37.4 billion, following a
0.6 percent March increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up eight of the last eleven months, increased $0.2 billion or
0.7 percent to $33.2 billion. This follows a 2.2 percent March increase.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in April decreased $2.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $500.4 billion,
following a 0.2 percent March increase. Transportation equipment, down ten of the last twelve months, had the largest decrease,
$6.3 billion or 2.6 percent to $238.3 billion. ‘This follows a 0.7 percent March decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up
five consecutive months, increased $2.3 billion or 3.0 percent to $79.1 billion. This follows a 1.8 percent March increase.
Electronic and other electrical equipment, up five consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $64.9 billion. This
follows a 1.8 percent March increase. Primary metals, up three consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $29.9
billion. This follows a 0.1 percent March increase and is the largest increase since the 3.9 percent increase in September 1997.
Instruments and related products also increased.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in April decreased $2.8 billion or 36.4 percent to $4.9 billion,
following a 41.2 percent March increase. This is the largest decrease since the 41.0 percent decrease in July 1996. Shipments,
down five of the last six months, decreased 0.7 percent to $6.6 billion, following a 0.9 percent March decrease. Unfilled orders
decreased $1.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $95.4 billion. This follows a 1.1 percent March increase.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in April decreased $0.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $52.5
billion, following a 0.1 percent March increase. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $54.6 billion. This follows a
2.7 percent March increase. Unfilled orders, down five of the last seven months, decreased $2.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $258.7
billion, following a 0.3 percent March decrease. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to
$47.4 billion, the fifth increase in the last six month: ipments increased $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $45.9 billion; and unfilled
orders increased $1.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $112.2 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase.

@ REVISED MARCH DATA Revised seasonally adjusted March figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $349.0
billion (revised from $348.9 billion); new orders, $349.3 billion (revised from $349.9 billion); unfilled orders, $526.4 billion
(revised from $527.0 billion); and total inventories, $463.5 billion (revised from $463.4 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 3, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for May is scheduled for June 24, 1999 at 8:30
AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Nu

Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Apt Mar Feb. | Mar; | Feb. | Jan- Apts Mar, Apr.
1999 199° 1999 | Apr? | Mar! Feb. 199% 1999 1998 | Apr.99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments... 196,873 | 198,114 | 194,465 -0.6 +19] +02 215,377 +51
New orders : 194/383 | 198/928 | 193.786 -23 427 3.9 213/862 434
Unfilled orders 500;432 | 502;922 | 502/108 -03 +02 0.1 503,690 2.0
Excluding defense :
Shipments... . 190,252 | 191,448 | 187,736 0.6 42.0] +0.2 | 188,102 | 208,204 | 178,509 +54
New orders on 1997442 | 191,164 | 188,287 09 415 -28 | 190,751 | 204'503 | 182;346 +46
Unfilled orders 405,019 | 405;829 | 406,113 0.2 “01 +0.1 | 408:489 ] 4057840 | 413,072 “Ui
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 162,118 | 162,315 | 159,569 0.1 +17 176,436 | 150,369 +4.6
New orders : 1597628 | 163,129 | 158,890 “21 42.7 174,921 | 154,569 +26
Primary metals :
Shipments 14,153 14,481 14,224 23 +18 -0.6 88
New orders 14,696 14'512 14,601 +13 06] +69 34
Unfilled orders. - - 291853 293310 | 29,279 +19 40.1 +13 “115
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments. 37,390 | 36,973 36,756 Hd +06] +07 +0.9
New orders“... | _ 397685 38344 | 37,037 +35 43.5 -0:3 +77
Unfilled orders 79.056 | 76,761 75390 | +30 +18 +04 +65
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 33,180 | 32,956 | 32,235 +07 +22 -18 | 30,500 +94
New orders _ 33,893 34,118 | 32,651 -07 +45 64 | 343519 +8.6
Unfilled orders fis] 647886 | 64,173 | 63,011 +41 +18] +07 | 66,687 +14
Transportation equipment :
Shipments 47,956 | 49,206 | 47,502 2.5 43.6 +0.6 | 49,887 +9.6
New orders 41626 | 47539 | 45.421 | -12.4 +47] -133 43.614 58
Unfilled orders °° : 238,287 | 2441617 | 246,284 26 - 0.8 | 240,101 “6.1
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Shipments 61,262 | 60,860 | $9,501 12.3 69,306 3 +67
New orders : $7451 61,052 38,732 +40 697821 3332 “15
Unfilled orders : 354,126 | 357,93 357,745 +01 360,018 | 367,496 -3.0
Nondefense :
Shipments . 54,641 54,194 $2,772 40.8 42.7 0.3 50,710 62.133 46,966 +8.0
New orders sense 52/510 | 53,288 53/233 “15 +01 -64 | 48,586 60,462 | 47,519 +22
Unfilled orders ‘| 258:713 | 2607844 | 261,750 -08 03} 40.2 | 259;044 | 261,168 | 264;361 20
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments sees 45,922 | 45,631 44,228 | +06 43.2 04 | 42,064 52,863 +64
New orders : 41 47,291 45°522 +03 43.9 0.5 | 43,567 33,758 +119
Unfilled orders °° 112/232 | 110,736 | 109{076 | +14 +15] +12 | 112363 | 111,060 +07
Defense :
Shipments 6,621 6,666 6,729 0.7 -09 -0.2 7.173 2.8
New orders 4941 7.764 $499 | -364 | +412] 314 9359 278
Unfilled orders : 95.413 97093 95,995 “17 +1 “13 98:850 “5.5

(INA) Not available, * Revised.

* Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe peri and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the peril und are at adjusted for trading-day or ealendar-month variations

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers” shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey estar is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
response and nonveponing. Since the survey panel is mia probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be Calculated. Further details on survey design, methedology, and dats limitations are contained in our most fevent annual
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Repors; M3-1(96), "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996,

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general industrial machinery. computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating und service industry machinery, eletcical ansmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
Complete aitrafi. missiles, and space vehicles, aicraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, ralfoad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital gos include ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicle, and pars. ships, tanks and tank components. search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Apr. ] Apr. 1998- | Year ago Apr] Apr. 1998-| _ Year ago Apr] Apr 1998-
Apr. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Mar. 1999 Apr. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Mar. 1999] _ Apr. 1998] 1994-1998 | Mar. 1999
Durable goods 08 03 06 10 04 23 Ot OL 04
Primary metals vee ll 05 Ll 0.7 09 24 02 04 08
Industrial machinery and equipment Ll 0.5 09 08 0.6 1.0 02 0.2 05

Electronic and other .
electrical equipment 06 03 13 19 0.9 45 08 05 I 2
Transportation equipment 09 04 2.0 17 1.0 64 OL OL 0.5
Nondefense capital goods 17 0.5 12 0.6 04 2.7 0.2 01 04
Defense capital goods 0.9 0.6 1d 13.5 47 22.5 0.7 0.2 1.0

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without reyard to sign,
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

215

205

195

185

175

165

215

New Orders
Pom Shipments |-| 205

195

185

175

1 L ol L L L H J ! ! L !
Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb = Apr
Apr. 1997 - Apr. 1999

165

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

59 59
New Orders

54 [| Shipments | ------------------------- =< Ne 54

49f---------24----- 449

a +444

39 H 1 L 1 L 1 L 1 1 J, i 1 1 39

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr
Apr. 1997 - Apr. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.