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FOR RELEASE AT 8:30 AM EST, THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2021

MONTHLY ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, 

INVENTORIES AND ORDERS JANUARY 2021

Release Number: CB 21-26 M3-1 (21)-01

Statement Regarding COVID-19 Impact: The Census Bureau continues to monitor response and data 

quality and has determined that estimates in this release meet publication standards. For more 

information, see < M3 COVID-19 FAQs>.

FEBRUARY 25, 2021 — The U.S. Census Bureau announces the January advance report on durable goods 

manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders:

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $8.5 billion or 3.4 percent to $256.6

billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up nine consecutive months, followed a

1.2 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.4 percent. Excluding 

defense, new orders increased 2.3 percent. Transportation, up eight of the last nine months, led the 

increase, $6.1 billion or 7.8 percent to $85.1 billion.

DURABLE GOODS – NEW ORDERS

JANUARY 2021 $256.6 billion +3.4%°

DECEMBER 2020

(revised) $248.1 billion +1.2%°

Next release: March 24, 2021

Data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes.

°Statistical significance is not measurable for this survey. The Manufacturers' Shipments, 

Inventories, and Orders estimates are not based on a probability sample, so the sampling 

error of these estimates cannot be measured nor can the confidence intervals be computed.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders, February

25, 2021.

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

% Change -0.2% 2.0% -16.7% -18.3% 15.0% 7.7% 11.8% 0.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2% 3.4%

-19.0%

-18.0%

-17.0%

-16.0%

-15.0%

-14.0%

-13.0%

-12.0%

-11.0%

-10.0%

-9.0%

-8.0%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

DURABLE GOODS NEW ORDERS 2020-2021

Seasonally Adjusted, Month-To-Month Percentage Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, 

February 25, 2021.
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Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, up eight of the last nine months, increased $5.1

billion or 2.0 percent to $260.6 billion. This followed a 2.1 percent December increase. Machinery, also up 

eight of the last nine months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 3.6 percent to $33.2 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following seven consecutive monthly 

decreases, increased $1.0 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,072.6 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent December

decrease. Fabricated metal products, up nine consecutive months, led the increase, $0.9 billion or 1.2

percent to $78.6 billion.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.4

billion or 0.3 percent to $424.3 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent December decrease. Transportation 

equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $2.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $145.7

billion. 

Capital Goods

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in January increased $4.6 billion or 6.5 percent to $75.6 billion. 

Shipments increased $2.6 billion or 3.5 percent to $77.1 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.5 billion or 

0.3 percent to $586.8 billion. Inventories decreased $2.6 billion or 1.4 percent to $191.7 billion. Defense 

new orders for capital goods in January increased $2.5 billion or 20.2 percent to $14.8 billion. Shipments

increased $0.4 billion or 2.8 percent to $13.2 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.6 billion or 0.9 percent 

to $179.6 billion. Inventories increased $0.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $21.2 billion.

Revised December Data

Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $496.1

billion (revised from $493.5 billion); shipments, $503.6 billion (revised from $501.8 billion); unfilled orders, 

$1,071.6 billion (revised from $1,070.8 billion) and total inventories, $695.8 billion (revised from $695.7

billion).

Revised and more detailed estimates, plus nondurable goods data, will be published on March 4, 2021, at

10:00 a.m. EST. The Advance Report on durable goods for February is scheduled for release on March 24,

2021 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. View the full schedule in the Economic Briefing Room:

<https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/>. The full text and tables of this release can be found at

<www.census.gov/m3>.
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EXPLANATORY NOTES

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders 

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing. 

“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or 

decrease.

Description of the survey

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, 

Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United 

States Code. This survey provides statistics on a calendar-month basis for manufacturers' value of 

shipments, new orders (net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-ofmonth total inventory (at current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication 

(materials and supplies, work-in-process, and finished goods). Data published from the M3 survey are 

based on a panel of approximately 5,000 reporting units that represent approximately 3,100 

companies and provide an indication of month-to-month change for the Manufacturing Sector. These 

reporting units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or 

single-unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, which are combined into 65 publication levels due 

to the small monthly panel size. The survey methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes 

of the total operations of the reporting units in the M3 panel effectively represent the month-tomonth movements of all establishments that make up the category. The companies for which 

shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent approximately 60

percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2017 Economic 

Census, and these companies include roughly 61 percent of the manufacturing companies with $500 

million or more in shipments in the 2017 Economic Census. The companies for which shipments data 

are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 51 percent of the total value of 

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2017 Economic Census. Statistics based on the M3 

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all 

manufacturing companies. The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling 

errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are 

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly 

change for establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to 

represent the month-to-month movement of all companies is another potential source. Any 

corrections will be published in the full report. Corrections received after the full report will be 
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released in the next month’s advance report. Any revisions made later than two months will be 

reflected in the annual benchmark publication. Additional survey documentation can be found on our 

web site: <www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.

Benchmark notice

Revised historical data from the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey will 

be issued on May 14, 2021. These revisions result from

• benchmarking the M3 shipments and inventories data to the 2019 and 2018 Annual Survey of 

Manufactures (ASM) data, as well as to revised ASM data from 2013 through 2016, resulting 

from benchmarking the ASM to the 2017 Economic Census; 

• incorporating the unfilled orders to shipments ratios obtained for 2019 and 2018 from the 

Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders (M3UFO) Survey by applying these ratios to the respective ASM 

shipments data, as well as incorporating revised unfilled orders to shipments ratios for prior 

years;

• adjusting the new orders data to be consistent with the benchmarked shipments and unfilled 

orders data;

• correcting monthly data for late receipts, reclassifications of reported data, and revisions to 

previously reported data;

• updating the seasonally adjusted data based on the results of benchmarking and the recent 

annual review of the seasonal adjustment models. 

These revisions will span the seasonally adjusted data for January 2007 through March 2021 and the 

data not seasonally adjusted for January 2012 through March 2021. An updated Press Release will 

contain revised monthly tables for January 2021 through March 2021. 

RESOURCES

API

The Census Bureau’s application programming interface (API) lets developers create custom apps to reach 

new users and makes key demographic, socio-economic and housing statistics more accessible than ever 

before.

<www.census.gov/developers/>
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FRED Mobile App

Receive the latest updates on the nation’s key economic indicators by downloading 

the FRED App <https://fred.stlouisfed.org/fred-mobile/> for both Apple and 

Android devices. FRED, the signature database of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. 

Louis, now incorporates the Census Bureau’s 13 economic indicators.

###
Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan Change

2021 22020 r

2020 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2021 2

2020 r

2020 2021 2020 2021/2020

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 260,640 255,585 250,388 2.0 2.1 0.4 231,402 255,305 223,471 231,402 223,471 3.5

 New Orders4.............................. 256,578 248,121 245,247 3.4 1.2 1.3 231,032 255,469 221,172 231,032 221,172 4.5

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 174,646 170,219 167,810 2.6 1.4 0.3 157,513 170,357 149,693 157,513 149,693 5.2

 New Orders4.............................. 171,452 169,140 166,358 1.4 1.7 1.0 158,502 169,875 148,717 158,502 148,717 6.6

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 245,726 241,154 235,245 1.9 2.5 0.2 218,863 239,102 211,422 218,863 211,422 3.5

 New Orders4.............................. 240,322 234,809 231,591 2.3 1.4 1.3 218,132 236,935 211,612 218,132 211,612 3.1

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 176,114 171,281 167,845 2.8 2.0 -0.3 156,709 173,710 156,080 156,709 156,080 0.4

 New Orders.............................. 177,121 169,040 167,824 4.8 0.7 0.9 161,995 178,540 159,154 161,995 159,154 1.8

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 20,387 19,864 19,310 2.6 2.9 2.5 19,883 18,275 19,522 19,883 19,522 1.8

 New Orders.............................. 20,756 20,122 19,880 3.2 1.2 1.3 20,749 19,335 19,941 20,749 19,941 4.1

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 32,534 31,726 31,027 2.5 2.3 0.4 29,881 29,810 29,974 29,881 29,974 -0.3

 New Orders.............................. 33,466 32,878 31,995 1.8 2.8 -0.1 31,967 30,531 30,977 31,967 30,977 3.2

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 33,207 32,066 31,591 3.6 1.5 0.2 29,408 33,135 28,669 29,408 28,669 2.6

 New Orders.............................. 33,539 33,640 32,505 -0.3 3.5 2.0 31,925 34,207 30,484 31,925 30,484 4.7

 Computers and electronic products4:

 Shipments................................ 31,189 30,886 30,652 1.0 0.8 -1.5 27,911 34,717 25,582 27,911 25,582 9.1

 New Orders.............................. 26,100 26,271 26,246 -0.7 0.1 -0.1 22,623 31,421 20,739 22,623 20,739 9.1

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 2,121 1,885 1,924 12.5 -2.0 0.7 1,819 2,377 1,508 1,819 1,508 20.6

 New Orders.............................. 2,108 1,939 1,970 8.7 -1.6 3.1 1,806 2,431 1,505 1,806 1,505 20.0

 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 4,251 4,454 4,372 -4.6 1.9 -6.4 3,324 5,975 2,887 3,324 2,887 15.1

 New Orders.............................. 4,249 4,706 4,704 -9.7 0.0 -0.7 3,431 6,194 3,000 3,431 3,000 14.4

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 11,673 10,936 10,801 6.7 1.2 -2.1 10,101 11,111 9,685 10,101 9,685 4.3

 New Orders.............................. 11,917 11,440 11,241 4.2 1.8 1.8 10,809 11,502 10,218 10,809 10,218 5.8

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 85,994 85,366 82,578 0.7 3.4 0.6 73,889 84,948 73,778 73,889 73,778 0.2

 New Orders.............................. 85,126 78,981 78,889 7.8 0.1 2.0 72,530 85,594 72,455 72,530 72,455 0.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 62,902 63,560 62,135 -1.0 2.3 2.7 55,575 59,793 54,230 55,575 54,230 2.5

 New Orders.............................. 63,167 63,665 62,319 -0.8 2.2 2.8 56,255 60,716 54,624 56,255 54,624 3.0

 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts5:

 Shipments................................ 7,426 6,185 4,333 20.1 42.7 -30.9 4,958 8,261 6,155 4,958 6,155 -19.4

 New Orders.............................. 5,036 1,028 2,372 389.9 -56.7 0.7 2,504 6,381 6,209 2,504 6,209 -59.7

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 4,272 3,608 4,225 18.4 -14.6 0.1 3,384 4,174 3,709 3,384 3,709 -8.8

 New Orders.............................. 4,808 2,941 2,971 63.5 -1.0 5.2 4,107 4,997 2,854 4,107 2,854 43.9

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 45,656 44,741 44,429 2.0 0.7 1.3 40,329 43,309 36,261 40,329 36,261 11.2

 New Orders.............................. 45,674 44,789 44,491 2.0 0.7 1.3 40,429 42,879 36,358 40,429 36,358 11.2

 Capital goods3:

 Shipments................................ 90,300 87,357 85,242 3.4 2.5 -0.8 77,871 96,672 72,537 77,871 72,537 7.4

 New Orders.............................. 90,376 83,292 84,281 8.5 -1.2 0.7 79,498 96,129 71,211 79,498 71,211 11.6

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 77,087 74,509 71,825 3.5 3.7 -2.1 66,730 82,369 62,099 66,730 62,099 7.5

 New Orders.............................. 75,588 70,989 71,862 6.5 -1.2 1.1 67,328 79,596 63,057 67,328 63,057 6.8

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 72,054 70,566 69,856 2.1 1.0 0.4 63,983 76,582 59,425 63,983 59,425 7.7

 New Orders.......................... 72,924 72,570 71,504 0.5 1.5 1.2 67,572 77,637 62,365 67,572 62,365 8.3

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 13,213 12,848 13,417 2.8 -4.2 6.9 11,141 14,303 10,438 11,141 10,438 6.7

 New Orders.............................. 14,788 12,303 12,419 20.2 -0.9 -1.4 12,170 16,533 8,154 12,170 8,154 49.3

r Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment. 

1 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of 

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, 

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes. 

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage, response and 

nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3. 

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, and other machinery; photographic 

equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer 

peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; 

railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and 

boats, and search and navigation equipment. 

4

 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled 

orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

5

 (NA) - New Orders month-to-month percent change is not provided for Nondefense aircraft and parts because the denominator has a negative value. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, January Advance Report, February 25, 2021. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website at 

<www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>. 
Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan 2021/

2021 2 2020 r 2020 Jan 2Dec r Nov 2021 2 2020

 r

2020 2020

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4......................... 1,072,561 1,071,554 1,073,795 0.1 -0.2 0.0 1,073,708 1,068,422 1,145,216 -6.2

 Total Inventories....................... 424,289 425,697 426,531 -0.3 -0.2 0.9 423,179 414,785 421,882 0.3

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4......................... 366,688 364,813 360,669 0.5 1.1 1.0 366,764 360,119 349,522 4.9

 Total Inventories....................... 278,600 277,740 275,814 0.3 0.7 0.5 277,995 271,204 280,706 -1.0

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4........................... 855,912 856,247 857,369 0.0 -0.1 0.2 857,568 852,643 930,857 -7.9

 Total Inventories....................... 398,871 400,449 401,288 -0.4 -0.2 1.1 397,901 389,747 396,857 0.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,072,561 1,071,554 1,073,795 0.1 -0.2 0.0 1,073,708 1,068,422 1,145,216 -6.2

 Total Inventories....................... 345,595 347,610 347,773 -0.6 0.0 0.8 344,050 338,432 342,936 0.3

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 33,805 33,436 33,178 1.1 0.8 1.7 34,434 33,568 31,878 8.0

 Total Inventories....................... 34,395 34,291 33,823 0.3 1.4 0.5 34,637 34,112 35,498 -2.4

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 78,581 77,649 76,497 1.2 1.5 1.3 78,010 75,924 73,453 6.2

 Total Inventories....................... 52,642 52,083 51,618 1.1 0.9 0.7 52,615 51,017 53,454 -1.6

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 101,592 101,260 99,686 0.3 1.6 0.9 102,012 99,495 96,543 5.7

 Total Inventories....................... 69,908 69,954 69,385 -0.1 0.8 0.7 68,976 67,762 70,343 -1.9

 Computers and electronic products4:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 120,345 120,365 119,757 0.0 0.5 0.6 120,364 119,996 118,272 1.8

 Total Inventories....................... 43,655 43,629 43,520 0.1 0.3 -0.1 43,329 42,133 43,775 -1.0

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,943 1,956 1,902 -0.7 2.8 2.5 1,943 1,956 2,005 -3.1

 Total Inventories....................... 3,979 3,964 3,912 0.4 1.3 1.2 3,898 3,785 3,741 4.2

 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 26,275 26,277 26,025 0.0 1.0 1.3 26,215 26,108 25,702 2.0

 Total Inventories....................... 5,254 5,239 5,246 0.3 -0.1 -0.9 5,150 4,906 5,018 2.6

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 23,555 23,311 22,807 1.0 2.2 2.0 23,539 22,831 21,316 10.4

 Total Inventories....................... 19,912 19,867 19,776 0.2 0.5 0.8 19,879 18,987 19,801 0.4

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 705,873 706,741 713,126 -0.1 -0.9 -0.5 706,944 708,303 795,694 -11.2

 Total Inventories....................... 145,689 147,957 150,717 -1.5 -1.8 1.7 145,184 143,581 141,176 2.8

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 21,871 21,606 21,501 1.2 0.5 0.9 22,509 21,829 21,142 6.5

 Total Inventories....................... 40,446 39,690 40,245 1.9 -1.4 2.8 40,716 38,176 40,237 1.2

 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 467,847 470,237 475,394 -0.5 -1.1 -0.4 468,547 471,001 560,028 -16.3

 Total Inventories....................... 75,396 78,552 80,826 -4.0 -2.8 1.9 74,796 76,101 72,414 3.3

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 79,088 78,552 79,219 0.7 -0.8 -1.6 79,922 79,199 84,182 -5.1

 Total Inventories....................... 12,544 12,385 12,355 1.3 0.2 -0.7 12,518 12,286 12,144 3.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,810 8,792 8,744 0.2 0.5 0.7 8,405 8,305 8,060 4.3

 Total Inventories....................... 58,088 57,916 57,692 0.3 0.4 0.5 58,559 57,193 57,835 1.3

 Capital goods3:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 766,371 766,295 770,360 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 765,293 763,666 836,947 -8.6

 Total Inventories....................... 212,959 215,420 217,128 -1.1 -0.8 1.0 210,779 208,922 207,637 1.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 586,798 588,297 591,817 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 586,319 585,721 665,622 -11.9

 Total Inventories....................... 191,744 194,378 196,083 -1.4 -0.9 1.2 189,678 187,991 186,763 1.6

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 225,644 224,774 222,770 0.4 0.9 0.7 225,431 221,842 215,074 4.8

 Total Inventories................... 128,739 128,310 127,768 0.3 0.4 0.6 127,264 124,415 126,510 0.6

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 179,573 177,998 178,543 0.9 -0.3 -0.6 178,974 177,945 171,325 4.5

 Total Inventories....................... 21,215 21,042 21,045 0.8 0.0 -1.7 21,101 20,931 20,874 1.1

r Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment. 

1 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of shipments and 

new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, as well as seasonal variation, 

based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes. 

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors 

of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations, 

see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3. 

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, laundry, 

and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; 

electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; 

electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and 

supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment. 

4

 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals. Estimates and percent 

changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey, January Advance Report, February 25, 2021. Information on data sources and methodology can be found on our website 

at <www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/how_the_data_are_collected/index.html>.