FOR IMMEDIATE RELEAS E 

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2015, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT

Adriana Stoica

Economic Indicators Division

(301) 763-4832

M3-1 (15)-09

CB 15-178

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

September 2015

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in 

September decreased $2.9 billion or 1.2 percent to 

$231.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced 

today. This decrease, down two consecutive months,

followed a 3.0 percent August decrease. Excluding 

transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. 

Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.0 percent.

 

 Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive 

months, led the decrease, $2.2 billion or 2.9 percent to 

$75.5 billion.

Shipments

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in 

September, up three of the last four months, increased

$0.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, to $242.5 billion. This

followed a 0.5 percent August decrease. 

 Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four 

months, drove the increase, $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to 

$81.0 billion.

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

September, down two consecutive months, decreased 

$6.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $1,187.4 billion. This 

followed a 0.3 percent August decrease. 

 Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive 

months, led the decrease, $5.5 billion or 0.7 percent to 

$794.1 billion.

Inventories

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in

September, down four of the last five months, decreased

$1.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, to $399.4 billion. This 

followed a 0.2 percent August decrease.

 Transportation equipment, down two of the last three 

months, led the decrease, $1.0 billion or 0.8 percent to 

$131.3 billion. 

Capital Goods

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September

decreased $5.9 billion or 7.6 percent to $72.2 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $79.8

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $7.6 billion or 1.0 

percent to $752.2 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 

billion or 0.1 percent to $176.2 billion.

 Defense new orders for capital goods in September

increased $1.1 billion or 12.3 percent to $9.7 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.3 billion or 3.1 percent to $10.3

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.4

percent to $148.2 billion. Inventories decreased $0.8

billion or 3.5 percent to $22.8 billion.

Revised August Data

 Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $471.3

billion (revised from $473.0 billion); shipments, $479.4

billion (revised from $480.1 billion); unfilled orders, 

$1,194.1 billion (revised from $1,195.0 billion); and 

total inventories, $647.8 billion (revised from $648.4

billion).

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor 

manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>. Revised and more detailed estimates, plus 

nondurable goods data, will be published on November 3, 2015, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The Advance Report on durable goods for O ctober is

scheduled for release on November 25, 2015 at 8:30 a.m. EST. See back page for survey description. To receive the latest updates on the 

Nation's key economic indicators, download the America's Economy app for Apple and Android smartphones and tablets. To learn more 

about this release and the other indicators the U.S. Census Bureau publishes, join us for the Investigating Economic Indicators Webinar 

Series. For more information, visit www.census.gov/econ/webinar.

“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or decrease. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep Change

2015 2 2015 r 2015 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2015 2 2015 r 2014 2015 2014 2015/2014

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Shipments................................ 242,464 242,088 243,200 0.2 -0.5 1.0 256,918 245,794 254,641 2,165,182 2,120,853 2.1

 New Orders4

.............................. 231,080 233,932 241,044 -1.2 -3.0 1.9 245,944 228,722 255,010 2,086,682 2,187,252 -4.6

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 161,454 161,556 162,359 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 170,030 164,718 176,369 1,464,683 1,474,965 -0.7

 New Orders4

.............................. 155,566 156,192 157,580 -0.4 -0.9 0.4 163,086 155,841 173,111 1,418,475 1,456,736 -2.6

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 229,766 229,696 230,250 0.0 -0.2 1.0 242,824 233,596 241,639 2,057,240 2,015,399 2.1

 New Orders4

.............................. 218,165 222,537 227,423 -2.0 -2.1 0.8 230,880 220,510 243,267 1,988,220 2,079,266 -4.4

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 173,054 173,405 173,814 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 183,849 175,343 182,208 1,551,616 1,512,964 2.6

 New Orders.............................. 166,442 170,001 176,054 -2.1 -3.4 1.6 177,336 163,504 187,517 1,516,074 1,629,044 -6.9

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 20,170 20,344 20,710 -0.9 -1.8 -1.9 20,622 20,876 24,507 194,209 211,397 -8.1

 New Orders.............................. 19,749 20,333 20,513 -2.9 -0.9 -2.2 19,581 20,159 24,491 191,984 213,042 -9.9

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 29,474 29,699 29,822 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 31,038 31,073 32,263 271,382 271,547 -0.1

 New Orders.............................. 29,630 29,131 29,879 1.7 -2.5 -1.4 30,590 29,857 31,923 271,428 276,774 -1.9

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 33,376 33,395 33,656 -0.1 -0.8 -0.8 34,112 32,845 36,448 300,938 307,609 -2.2

 New Orders.............................. 32,377 32,804 33,140 -1.3 -1.0 1.5 32,563 32,091 36,178 293,335 320,820 -8.6

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Shipments................................ 29,613 29,533 29,177 0.3 1.2 -0.3 32,672 29,621 31,179 259,456 252,765 2.6

 New Orders.............................. 25,095 25,246 25,280 -0.6 -0.1 1.0 29,039 23,975 28,008 222,934 211,192 5.6

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 1,921 2,008 2,141 -4.3 -6.2 -1.2 2,355 1,742 2,750 18,331 20,103 -8.8

 New Orders.............................. 1,909 1,998 2,102 -4.5 -4.9 -5.8 2,343 1,732 2,833 18,427 20,503 -10.1

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 3,710 3,633 3,694 2.1 -1.7 0.0 4,419 3,559 4,347 33,073 32,548 1.6

 New Orders.............................. 3,946 3,853 4,084 2.4 -5.7 1.6 4,759 3,562 4,470 36,085 36,299 -0.6

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 10,248 10,172 10,378 0.7 -2.0 1.7 10,875 10,384 11,483 93,236 94,414 -1.2

 New Orders.............................. 10,186 10,153 10,232 0.3 -0.8 1.2 10,636 10,246 11,807 92,797 96,785 -4.1

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 81,010 80,532 80,841 0.6 -0.4 3.0 86,888 81,076 78,272 700,499 645,888 8.5

 New Orders.............................. 75,514 77,740 83,464 -2.9 -6.9 4.9 82,858 72,881 81,899 668,207 730,516 -8.5

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 53,616 52,786 53,671 1.6 -1.6 4.6 55,965 54,264 49,133 462,496 419,707 10.2

 New Orders.............................. 53,655 52,707 53,760 1.8 -2.0 4.9 55,855 54,240 49,379 461,362 421,018 9.6

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 14,474 15,337 13,916 -5.6 10.2 -1.9 16,574 14,634 14,789 126,770 110,238 15.0

 New Orders.............................. 9,168 14,250 16,051 -35.7 -11.2 -8.6 12,520 10,685 18,739 107,173 188,275 -43.1

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,300 5,067 5,279 4.6 -4.0 -3.0 6,096 4,892 5,214 42,789 41,775 2.4

 New Orders.............................. 6,264 5,027 4,356 24.6 15.4 -14.3 7,680 3,165 4,089 37,552 38,494 -2.4

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 38,573 38,413 38,616 0.4 -0.5 1.5 40,711 39,919 40,489 345,462 337,233 2.4

 New Orders.............................. 38,529 38,525 38,536 0.0 0.0 1.5 40,677 39,513 40,704 345,997 338,123 2.3

 Capital goods3

:

 Shipments................................ 90,106 90,245 89,708 -0.2 0.6 0.1 97,644 88,628 97,757 795,609 777,652 2.3

 New Orders.............................. 81,856 86,712 93,280 -5.6 -7.0 3.0 88,844 80,157 100,867 766,555 873,095 -12.2

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 79,797 80,245 79,241 -0.6 1.3 0.0 86,215 78,737 87,308 708,660 693,718 2.2

 New Orders.............................. 72,176 78,096 81,970 -7.6 -4.7 0.6 77,873 73,640 91,113 686,867 786,000 -12.6

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 69,641 69,289 69,844 0.5 -0.8 0.4 74,330 68,139 76,727 622,030 620,584 0.2

 New Orders.......................... 68,585 68,778 69,875 -0.3 -1.6 1.9 72,591 66,414 78,833 619,585 646,452 -4.2

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 10,309 10,000 10,467 3.1 -4.5 0.7 11,429 9,891 10,449 86,949 83,934 3.6

 New Orders.............................. 9,680 8,616 11,310 12.3 -23.8 24.4 10,971 6,517 9,754 79,688 87,095 -8.5

r

 Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.

1

 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of 

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, 

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, 

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals.

 Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Sep Aug Jul Aug - Jul - Jun - Sep Aug Sep 2015/

2015 2 2015 r 2015 Sep 2 Aug r Jul 2015 2 2015 r 2014 2014

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Unfilled Orders4......................... 1,187,441 1,194,053 1,197,457 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 1,179,360 1,185,873 1,205,891 -2.2

 Total Inventories....................... 399,369 400,630 401,297 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 397,391 403,722 391,414 1.5

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 393,347 394,463 395,075 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 390,899 393,382 396,838 -1.5

 Total Inventories....................... 268,045 268,262 269,635 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 266,602 270,538 265,988 0.2

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................... 1,004,950 1,011,779 1,014,186 -0.7 -0.2 0.2 997,806 1,005,289 1,012,935 -1.5

 Total Inventories....................... 371,537 371,972 373,389 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 369,630 374,994 366,256 0.9

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,187,441 1,194,053 1,197,457 -0.6 -0.3 0.2 1,179,360 1,185,873 1,205,891 -2.2

 Total Inventories....................... 325,980 327,113 327,646 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 324,258 329,987 320,216 1.3

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 35,089 35,510 35,521 -1.2 0.0 -0.6 33,957 34,998 36,231 -6.3

 Total Inventories....................... 36,110 36,416 36,991 -0.8 -1.6 -0.9 35,979 36,496 38,724 -7.1

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 81,901 81,745 82,313 0.2 -0.7 0.1 81,872 82,320 82,876 -1.2

 Total Inventories....................... 49,046 48,907 48,950 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 48,653 48,972 47,999 1.4

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 110,273 111,272 111,863 -0.9 -0.5 -0.5 109,576 111,125 121,281 -9.7

 Total Inventories....................... 66,602 66,424 66,675 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 66,460 67,204 66,616 -0.2

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 135,099 134,845 134,380 0.2 0.3 0.4 134,951 134,123 126,191 6.9

 Total Inventories....................... 45,273 45,587 46,019 -0.7 -0.9 -0.1 45,019 46,461 44,064 2.2

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 2,568 2,580 2,590 -0.5 -0.4 -1.5 2,568 2,580 2,389 7.5

 Total Inventories....................... 3,570 3,630 3,838 -1.7 -5.4 -5.2 3,562 3,807 3,954 -9.9

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 39,801 39,565 39,345 0.6 0.6 1.0 39,657 39,317 35,211 12.6

 Total Inventories....................... 5,605 5,573 5,608 0.6 -0.6 -0.1 5,554 5,630 5,925 -6.3

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 22,453 22,515 22,534 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 22,120 22,359 22,227 -0.5

 Total Inventories....................... 16,510 16,590 16,639 -0.5 -0.3 0.3 16,257 16,844 16,196 0.4

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 794,094 799,590 802,382 -0.7 -0.3 0.3 788,461 792,491 809,053 -2.5

 Total Inventories....................... 131,324 132,368 131,662 -0.8 0.5 -0.1 130,789 133,184 125,426 4.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 21,666 21,627 21,706 0.2 -0.4 0.4 20,896 21,006 20,231 3.3

 Total Inventories....................... 35,322 35,798 35,889 -1.3 -0.3 -1.1 35,274 35,971 33,754 4.5

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 607,968 613,274 614,361 -0.9 -0.2 0.3 604,179 608,233 613,322 -1.5

 Total Inventories....................... 67,385 67,080 66,984 0.5 0.1 0.4 66,789 67,478 64,788 3.1

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 65,181 64,217 64,257 1.5 -0.1 -1.4 64,152 62,568 67,304 -4.7

 Total Inventories....................... 11,955 12,784 12,427 -6.5 2.9 0.0 11,969 12,819 12,723 -5.9

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,532 8,576 8,464 -0.5 1.3 -0.9 8,423 8,457 8,032 4.9

 Total Inventories....................... 54,504 54,338 54,361 0.3 0.0 0.0 54,234 54,561 52,389 3.5

 Capital goods3

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 900,396 908,646 912,179 -0.9 -0.4 0.4 895,180 903,980 918,701 -2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 198,986 199,705 199,801 -0.4 0.0 0.0 197,952 202,045 195,039 1.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 752,155 759,776 761,925 -1.0 -0.3 0.4 747,201 755,543 759,049 -1.6

 Total Inventories....................... 176,196 176,097 176,849 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 175,247 178,402 174,770 0.3

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 245,010 246,066 246,577 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 243,921 245,660 247,393 -1.4

 Total Inventories................... 120,295 120,292 120,945 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 119,881 122,186 120,874 -0.8

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 148,241 148,870 150,254 -0.4 -0.9 0.6 147,979 148,437 159,652 -7.3

 Total Inventories....................... 22,790 23,608 22,952 -3.5 2.9 1.0 22,705 23,643 20,269 12.0

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, 

and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

This survey provides statistics on a calendar-month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new 

orders (net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory 

(at current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-inprocess, and finished goods). Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately 

4,800 reporting units that represent approximately 3,000 companies and provide an indication of month-tomonth change for the Manufacturing Sector. These reporting units may be divisions of diversified large 

companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, which are 

combined into 65 publication levels due to the small monthly panel size. The survey methodology 

assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the M3 panel

effectively represent the month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category.

The companies for which shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent 

approximately 61 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 

Economic Census, and these companies include almost two-thirds of the manufacturing companies with 

$500 million or more in shipments in the 2012 Economic Census. The companies for which shipments 

data are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 54 percent of the total value of 

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 Economic Census. Statistics based on the M3 

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing 

companies. The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are 

normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many 

sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is one 

source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-to-month 

movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full 

report. Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any 

revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3.