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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1995 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY

MANUFACTURERS’ INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

SHIPMENTS,

Report
Covering

Advance Report
Release Dates
(8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00

Regular Report
Release Dates
a.m, release time)

December 1994
January 1995
February 1995
March 1995
April 1995
May 1995

June 1995
July 1995
August 1995
September 1995
October 1995

November 1995

Thur.,
Fri.,
Fri.,
Wed.,
Wed.,

Fri.,

Jan. 2
Feb. 24
Mar. 24
Apr. 26
May 24
June 23

6

Thur., July 27

Thur.,
Wed.,
Thur.,
Wed.,

Wed.,

Aug. 2
Sept. 2
Oct. 2
Nov. 29

Dec. 27

4

7

6

Fri., Feb.
Fri., Mar.
Fri., Mar.

Wed., May 3

3

3

31

Thurs., June 1

Fri., June 30

Thur., Aug.

3

Thur., Aug. 31

Wed., Oct.
Thur., Nov.

Wed., Dec.

4

2

6

Thur., Jan 4, 1996



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | witterttio
NI EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mORCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable December 23, 1994
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB94-209
M3-1(94)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GoaDs MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
lovember
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $5.3 billion or 3.4 percent to $159.4 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.9 percent decrease in October and is the eighth
increase this year. Year to date, new orders are 14.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $4.4 billion or 12.5 percent to $39.6 billion, with increases in aircraft
and aircraft parts, and motor vehicles and parts. This follows a decrease in October of 9.5 percent. Electronic and other electrical
equipment increased $0.6 billion or 2.6 percent to $24.6 billion, the fourth consecutive increase and the eighth this year.
Fabricated metal products and stone, clay, and glass products also increased. Primary metals declined $0.2 billion or 1.2 percent
to $14.4 billion, the first decline since July. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased slightly, following a 2.0 percent
increase in October. Instruments and related products also decreased.

Shipments

major industries. This follows declines of 1.1 in October and 0.8 percent in September and is the sixth increase this year.
Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.2 billion or 6.0 percent to $39.5 billion, with increases in all categories
except shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 5.5 percent decrease in October. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased
$0.6 billion or 2. percent to $24.3 billion, the thirteenth consecutive increase. Primary metals increased $0.4 billion or 2.8
percent to $14.0 billion, the tenth consecutive monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment was up $0.1 billionor 0.3
percent to $28.7 billion, the seventh consecutive monthly increase and the ninth this year. Year to date, durable goods shipments
are 11.3 percent above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in November increased $2.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $428.7 billion, the third
consecutive monthly increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the seventeenth consecutive month, increased $1.7
billion or 2.6 percent to $68.0 billion; increases were widespread. Primary metals increased $0.5 billion or 1.7 percent to $28.5
billion, the twelfth consecutive monthly increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent
to $46.2 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase. Transportation equipment increased slightly to $201.8 billion, the first
increase since January and the third in the last thirty-nine months. The only decline was in instruments and related products.

Shipments of durable goods in November increased $4.3 billion or 2.8 Seren to $156.9 billion, with increases in all
$.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $0.4 billion or 7.7 percent to $5.3 billion. This follows a 16.8 percent decrease in
October and is the sixth decline this year. Shipments increased 0.7 percent to $6.8 billion, following a 1.3 percent increase in
October. Unfilled orders decreased $1.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $109.3 billion, the fourth decline in the last five months.

Nondefense - New orders increased $3.2 billion or 8.5 percent to $41.6 billion, with the largest increase in aircraft and
aircraft parts. This follows a 1.9 percent decrease in October and is the third increase in the last four months. Shipments increased
$0.9 billion or 2.3 percent to $39.0 billion, following a decrease of 0.9 percent in October. Unfilled orders increased $2.5 billion
or 1.3 percent to $202.2 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent, following a 1.0
percent increase in October; shipments increased $0.5 billion or 1.6 percent, the fourth consecutive monthly increase; unfilled
orders increased $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent, the eighteenth consecutive monthly increase.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1995 RELEASE DATES)

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published January 5, 1995. The advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled for January 26, 1995. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe
(8.SPOBAR_B100) Tha CENTVATA ctaff at the Rurean af the Cenene (201-457-1914) can nenvide content information and seneral ouidance



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted

Not seasonally adjusted’

Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Nov, Oct. Sept. Oct.- Sept.- Aug.- Nov, Oct. Nov.
1994? 1994" 1994 Nov.” ret! Sept. 1994? 1994" 1993 |Nov.94/93
DURABLE GOODS
Total: |
Shipments . . 152,609 154,350 42.8 Ll 08 137,805 157,564 142,733 +106
New orders. 154,103 155,433 +34 0.9 +0.5 159,476 158,791 139,437 +144
Unfilled orders 426,196 424,702 +0.6 +04 +03 424,185 422,514 420,456 40.9
Excluding defense
Shipments .... 150,090 145,837 147,667 +29 12 0.6 50,660 150,906 135,312 +113
New orders... 154,090 148,328 148,494 43.9 -0.1 0.0 53,959 152,200 133,389 415.4
Unfilled orders . 319,413 315,413 312,922 +13 +08 +03 15,837 312,538 303,178 +4.2
With unfilled orders :
Shipments .... 123,658 121,165 121,902 42.1 0.2 124,721 123,824 113,498 +9.9
‘New orders . 126,166 122,659 122,985 42.9 +15 126,392 125,051 110,202 414.7
Primary metal:
Shipments 13,953 13,574 13,393 428 +14 +03 13,872 14,052 11,639 +19.2
New orders 14,437 14,619 14,398 12 +15 +5.1 14,059 14,449 11,554 421.7
Unfilled orders . 28,477 27,993 26,948 +17 +39 43.9 26,494 26,307 21,031 +26.0
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . 28,700 28,608 28,448 +03 +0.6 +0.1 28,054 27,736 24,970 +124
New orders. . 30,424 30,428 29,842 0.0 +2.0 0.1 30,225 30,041 26,187 +154
Unfilled orders 68,011 16,287 64,467 +2.6 +28 +22 8,329 6,158 52,540 +30.1
Electronic and other
‘electrical equipment
Shipments . . 24,273 23,631 23,341 +2.7 +12 +0.9 25,182 23,951 21,213 +187
New orders. 24,615 23,980 23,403 42.6 42.5 +43 25,600 24,343 20,737 423.5
Unfilled orders . 46,162 45,820 45,471 +0.7 +08 +0.1 45,760 45,342 45,296 +10
Transportation equipment :
Shipments ...... . 39,536 37,298 39,485 +6.0 28 40,064 39,787 37,118 479
New orders. 39,612 35,212 38,887 +125 +02 40,140 38,190 35,253 +13.9
Unfilled orders . . wee 201,771 201,695 203,781 0.0 0.3 200,696 200,620 215,744 -7.0
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES’
Total:
Shipments .. 45,860 44,923 45,191 42.1 0.6 +0. 45,735 43,259 41,981 48.9
New orders. 46,890 095 45,995 +63 4d +5.2 47,197 43,859 40,430 +16.7
Unfilled orders . 311,519 310,489 311,317 40.3 03 +0. 310,927 309,465 316,701 18
39,040 38,151 38,508 423 0.9 +1 38,590 36,601 34,560 +117
41,562 38,320 39,056 +85 19 +3.9 41,680 37,268 34,382 4212
202,228 199,706 199,537 +1. +01 +0. 202,579 199,489 199,423 +16
34,200 33,663 33,609 +16 +0.2 +1. 33,878 32,416 30,000 +129
35,283 35,695 35,355 12 +10 +35 35,529 4,94 30,804 +153
90,843 89,71 87,728 +12 42.3 +2. 91,194 89,543 74,278 422.8
Defense :
Shipments . . 6,820 6772 6,683 40.7 +13 6.0 7,145 6,658 7,421
New orders. 5,328 5,775 6,939 77 -16.8 +12.9 5,517 6,591 6,048
Unfilled orders 109,291 110,783 111,780 13 09 40.2 108,348 109,976 117,278

(NA) Not available. * Revised.

"Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for eading-day and ealendar-monsh variations; unfilled anders are as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for rating day or calendar-month varaons
2 pased on advance sample. Estimates of manufactres" shipments and orders are subject to suey variability and revision. Since the survey pane is nota probability sample, estimates of sampling variability cannot be calculated

Further details on survey design, methoxology, and data limitation are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92),

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992."

"The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : onance and accessories, seam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, consructon mining and material handing equipment, metalworking machinery. special indus
machinery, feneral industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service inust'y machinery, electrical vansmisson and disyibution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment
atcraft. missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, raload equipment, and search and navigation equipment
‘Defense capital goods include "ordnance, ‘communication equipment, aivrat, missiles, space vehicles, and pars, ships, tanks and tank componeas, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1993- | Year ago Nov, | Nov. 1993-| Year ago Nov. [Nov 1993-
Nov. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Oct. 1994 | Nov. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Oct. 1994] Nov. 1993| 1989-1993 | Oct. 1994
Durable goods . 0s 03 02 03 02 03 o. 0. 02
Primary metals... 1°! - 07 03 06 08 09 1 10 05 06
Industrial machinery and equipment . . . 21 07 07 24 07 08 ol 02 03

Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 06 03 04 04 04 1.0 on o4 04
Transportation equipment 03 oa 06 06 03 V0 00 00 Ol
Nondefense capital goods 14 04 06 10 04 09 o. o1 0.1
Defense capital goods . . 02 09 06 12 15 6.0 0.0 1 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard


as —— —

Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

175 175
New Orders

165 F- --------------------------------4 —— 14165
Shipments

155 =-4 155

145 145

135 135

125 125

115 1. L L L i in L 1 L L 1 1 L 115

Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1992-Nov. 1994
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
47 47
New Orders
2 Shipments |-] 42

27 L 1 L 1 1 L il 1 L 1 1 L il 27
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

Nov. 1992-Nov. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.