ECONOMICS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF NNT)
STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION

Bi 5 FF=

REE £7 BUREAU OF THE

ES&FtF = WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

For Data - (301) 457-4673 June 28, 2000

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CBO00-103

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(00)-05

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS” SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
May

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $12.3 billion or 6.0 percent to $218.9
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 5.7 percent April decrease and
is the largest increase since December 1999. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 6.6 percent. Year-to-date, new
orders are 8.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $9.6 billion or 26.0 percent to $46.5 billion, due to
electronic components. This is the largest increase since August 1997. Transportation equipment increased $1.6 billion or
3.5 percent to $46.9 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts and shipbuilding and tanks. Primary metals increased $0.2
billion or 1.1 percent to $15.9 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased 0.1 percent to $43.6 billion.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in May increased $4.5 billion or 2.2 percent to $213.9 billion, following a 1.0
percent April decrease. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $2.9 billion or 6.2 percent to $49.5 billion; all components increased, led
by aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts. This is the largest increase since August 1998. Electronic and other
electrical equipment increased $1.0 billion or 2.6 percent to $40.0 billion. This is the sixth increase in the last seven
months. Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $16.0 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment
decreased $0.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $42.2 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in May increased $5.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $530.7 billion,
following a 0.5 percent April decrease. This is the tenth increase in the last eleven months. Electronic and other electrical
equipment had the largest increase, $6.4 billion or 7.0 percent to $98.1 billion, due to electronic components. This is the
largest increase since August 1997. Industrial machinery and equipment, up eleven consecutive months, increased $1.4
billion or 1.6 percent to $87.2 billion. Transportation equipment, down fourteen of the last sixteen months, decreased $2.6
billion or 1.1 percent to $225.6 billion. Primary metals, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.2
percent to $31.4 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in May increased $0.6 billion or 11.7 percent to $6.1
billion. This is the first increase since December 1999. Shipments, down five of the last six months, decreased $0.1 billion
or 1.2 percent to $6.2 billion. Unfilled orders, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to

$93.8 billion.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in May decreased $1.0 billion or 1.6 percent to $60.5
billion. Shipments, up three consecutive months, increased $1.8 billion or 3.0 percent to $62.3 billion. Unfilled orders,
down for the first time since November 1999, decreased $1.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $263.0 billion. Excluding aircraft and
arts, new orders decreased $1.1 billion or 2.1 percent to $53.3 billion; shipments, up three consecutive months, increased
80.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $52.9 billion; and unfilled orders, up nine consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.4

percent to $122.9 billion.

® REVISED APRIL DATA Revised seasonally adjusted April figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$372.9 billion (revised from $373.0 billion); new orders, $370.1 billion (revised from $368.5 billion); unfilled orders,
$551.4 billion (revised from $549.7 billion); and total inventories, $477.9 billion (unrevised).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published July 6, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for June is scheduled for July 27, 2000 at 8:30
AM Thic rennet ig available on the dav of isene through the Denartment of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


i)

Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
May ni Mar. | Apr; | Mar.- | Feb. May Apr. May
20067 20008 2000 | May? | Apr’ | Mar 2001 2060 1999 | Mayo0/99
DURABLE GOODS
‘Total :
Shipments 213.865 211.477 305.189 | 198,773 47.2
New orders 218'892 296s | +60 204,732 +118
Unfilled orders 330,729 528.463 | +1.0 $801g38 | So0it3a +65
Excluding defense :
‘Shipments 207,656 | 203,064 | 204,829 | +23 +2.1 | 207,097 | 199.287 407
New orders, 212778 | 20112 | 2izgor | 58 +46 | 210;389 | 1997711 +121
Unfilled orders 436979 | 4311857 | 433,809 | +12 +19 | 43777 434.471 +84
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 177.775 | 174420} I7anoa | 19] 401] 42.1 | 174.989 | 168,522 +84
New orders 182:802 | 171.659 | 181.882 | +6.5 “5.6 4 177131 | 1682065 +41
Primary metals :
Shipments. 15.954] 15.815 | 16.042 | +09 4} +05] 16.295 | 16327 | 14.894 +94
New orders 151806 | 15728 | 15.898 | +11 1] 403 | 15%661 133967 | 14.691 +66
Unfilled orders 31449 | 311507 | 31.597 “02 “03 -0.5 | 32074. | 32.708 | 30.889 +3
Industrial machinery and equipment:
ipments 42.219 | 42.775 | 41.236 13] 437] 426] 40806] 41,235] 36317 | +117
New orders 43589 | 43.635 | 42/123 OL] 436] 418] 42200} 41997 | 36.763 | +148
Unfilled orders 87.213 | 85.843 | 84983 | +6 | HT 4ur | 87400 | 86.006 | 79222 | +103

Electronic and other
‘trical equipment :

Shipments 40.011 38,991 38,782 42.6 +05 1 38,368 +186
New orders 46.457 | 36.861 44714 | 4260 | -176 | +89] 437328 143.0
Unfilled orders 98112 | 912666 | 93.790 | +70 23] 468] 97351 408

T nsportation equipment :

"etic : : 49498 | 46611 | 48,787 | +62 4S] +41 51521 | 47,851 30,363 +23
New ord : 46.877 | 45.282 | 48355 | 435 64] 43.7 | 47887 | 4o'580 | 46.165 +37
Uniilled ordets : 225,618 | 228,239 | 229'568 “Ll -0.6 -0.2 | 2263364 | 229,998 | 236.056 4
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
‘Total: |
Shipments ns 68,477 66,743 65,199 42.6 42.4 42.9 65,659 $3,082 $9391 +10.6
New orders... : 66,636 | 66.992 | _ 66649 05 40.5] 435 | 62,731 533] +133
Unfilled orders 356,782 | 358,623 | 358:374 “05 Tol] toa | $406 | sera | 383603 +16
Nondefense :
Shipments 62,268 | 60,458 | 58,551 430} 33] 44 S.g49 | 56.180 +127
New orders 60522 | 61/516 | 60,375 “6 | +19] +46 37297 +148
Unfilled orders 263,032 | 264,778 | 263.720 sha] 409] 268383 | 208174 42.7
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments 52,885 | 52,708 | $2,051 +03 HS] $39] sess] azaa7 | agusg | rae
New orders 33327 | 341453] 53,064 21 +26) 41 30,251 43,713 +154
Unfilled orders 122/866 | 122424 | 120/679 | +04 BS] Tha] 3838] bees | Bee +99
Defense :
Shipments... . : 6,209 6,285 6,648 “12 35] O07 6,010 3,902 6,483 “13
New orders : O14 5/476 6274 | +i] -127 ~6.2 4860 52021 4.954 -19
Unfilled orders’: 93.750 | 93'845 | 94°654 011 09 04 | 94907 | 96,057 | 96,209 “14

(NA) Not available,‘ Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the tals fo the period and are adjusted fortrading-Jay and ealendas-month variations; unfilled orders areas ofthe endo she period and are mic adjusted For tading-day or calendar-menth variations

= Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufactures” shipments, inventories, and orders ute subject 0 survey ertoe an revision, One major component of survey error is nonsampling efor, which includes errors wf coverage,
response and nonteporting, Since the survey panel isnot a probably samp, estimates of sampling ert cant he calculated. Further details on survey design, meth, and data Tmitations ate conained in war most recent anal
penchiark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(96), "Manufacturers" Shipments. Inventories, ak Orders: 1987-1996,

“The Capital Goons Industries include Nendefense + ordnanee and accessories, steam engines ang turbines, imternal combustion engines, construction ining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, general sndustrial machinery, cmputer and office equipment, rettgeration, heating ail service industry machinery. electeeal transmission ax Uihubon eguponent, ekerica industrial apparatus, eommunican euipme
complete aiteratt, missiles, and space vehicles, airralt missiles, ak space vehicle engines and pas, ships und tank companens, railroad equipment, ax seatch and navigation equipmen

Defense capital goods include "ordnance, “communicainn equipment, rcatl, missiles, space vehicles. aid puts. ships, canis and tank coonponents, search al navigation equipaien

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago May | May 1999-| _ Year ago May | May 1999-| Year azo May | May 1999-

May 1999 | 1995-1999 |_Apr. 2000 | May 1999| 1995-1999 |_Apr. 2000] May 1999] 1995-1999 | Apr. 2000

Durable goods 02 02 13 06 05 23 02 0. 06

Primary metals 12 04 02 93 16 O8 03 Lt

Industrial machinery and equipment 1%6 09 33 20 12 27 18 03 09

Electronic and other

electrical equipment ot 03 i 07 ul 59 0.7 0s 19

Transportation equipment OSs 06 6.0 Os 12 65 Ol Ol O8

Nondefense capital goods 3.6 i 2 20 Ll 37 0.6 02 08

Defense capital goods 44 3 5 34 28 99 0.0 02 4
Note ; The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regal to sign,

for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
225 225

New Orders
215 F| Shipments - - - = = = = = 5 ee 215
206 ------------- +--+ e-em eh *---- - - 4 205
195 P- --------- 2 ee ee ITT  - - - -4 195
185 PI - - - - - - - 2 ee ee eee 4 185
175 1 L i 1 il 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 175
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
May 1998 - May 2000
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
64 64

New Orders
59f-| Shipments | --------------------------f----5 59
64h - --- - -- ~~ - pg  - - - - -  - - ---- 454
a 449
44 L L 1 i 1 1 L 1 L it 1 L 1 44
May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

May 1998 - May 2000

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current doilars.