UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

OMMERCE | vittro

—VTA/ BUREAU OF THE
— r= WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 10:00 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 November 27, 1996
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB96-202
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(96)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUEACTURERS' SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
October 199
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $174.2 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 4.6 percent September increase and is the third increase in
the last four months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.9 percent, the sixth increase in the last seven months. Year to date,
new orders are 6.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $4.6 billion or 17.3 percent to $31.3 billion,
mostly due to electronic components and communication equipment. This follows a 0.2 percent September increase. Transportation equipment
decreased $3.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $41.1 billion, with all component industries declining. This follows a 19.0 percent September increase
and is the fourth decrease in the last five months. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the third consecutive month, decreased $0.7
billion or 2.3 percent to $31.5 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent September decrease. Primary metals, also down for the third consecutive
month, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $14.6 billion, following a 3.1 percent September decline.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in October, down for the first month since June, decreased $2.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $168.7 billion,
following a 1.3 percent September increase. Year to date, shipments are 4.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down for the first month since June, had the largest decrease, $2.0 billion or 5.0 percent to $38.8 billion: led by
motor vehicles and parts, all component industries declined." This follows a 2.6 percent September increase. Industrial machinery and
equipment, down for the first month since July, decreased $0.6 billion or 2.0 percent to $31.9 billion, following a 1.5 percent September
increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $27.5 billion, the fifth increase in the last six
months. Primary metals increased $0.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $15.0 billion, following a 0.4 percent September decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in October increased $5.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $486.6 billion. This follows
a 0.7 percent September increase and is the fifth increase in the last six months.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $3.7 billion or 7.6 percent to $52.9 billion, following a 1.1 percent
September decline. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, increased $2.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $246.0 billion; a large
increase in aircraft and parts more than offset declines in the remaining segments. This follows a 1.6 percent September increase. Primary
metals decreased $0.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $31.3 billion, following a 0.3 percent September decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment
decreased $0.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $72.5 billion, following a 0.3 percent September decrease.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October decreased $0.4 billion or 8.4 percent to $4.8 billion, the first
decline since July. This follows a 7.4 percent September increase. Shipments, also down for the first month since July, decreased $0.4 billion
or 6.6 percent to $5.7 billion, following a 2.5 percent September increase. Unfilled orders, down for the fourth consecutive month, decreased
$0.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $105.3 billion, following a 0.8 percent September decline.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in October decreased $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $47.2 billion,
following a 15.4 percent September increase. This is the second decline in the last three months. Shipments decreased $1.0 billion or 2.2
percent to $43.1 billion. This follows a 1.8 percent September increase and is the first decrease since July. Unfilled orders, up three of the
last four months, increased $4.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $251.2 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.6 billion or
1.6 percent to $38.3 billion, the fourth increase in the last five months; shipments decreased $0.8 billion or 2.2 percent to $37.6 billion, the
first decrease since July; unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $98.0 billion, the first increase since July.

@ REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $315.3
billion (unrevised); new orders, $318.6 billion (revised from $319.0 billion); unfilled orders, $505.1 billion (revised from $505.6 billion); and
total inventories, $436.7 billion (revised from $437.1 billion).

After November 15, 1996, this document will not be available on CENDATA, FASTFAX or the CENSUS/BEA forum. This document and
future releases can be retrieved from the Census Bureau’s World-Wide-Web site: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates. plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published December 6, 1996. The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled for December 27, 1996. This
report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's ontine Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)


2
Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)
Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Oct, Sept Aug | Septs | Aug. | July. Oct, Sept Oct.
1996? 1996 1996 | “Oct? | Sept’ | Aug. 1996? 1996! 1995 | Oct.96/95
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments : 168,692 | 170,718 | 168,471 -12 +04 | 172,708 | 183,339 | 165,231 +4
New orders : 174.209 | 173.951 | 166,267 +01 +46 “3.6 | 180620 | 182)137 | 168310 473
Unfilled orders : : 486571 | 481.054 | 477;821 +1 05 | 483,691 | 475,779 | 445.638 +8
Excluding defense :
Shipments 163,007 | 164,634 | 162,534 ol 413 +03 +48
New orders... 169387 | 168.686 | 161,366 +04 +45 “3.7 +80
Unfilled orders 381308 | 374928 | 370/876 +17 + 03 +106
With unfilled orders :
Shipments . 136,668 | 137,559 | 136,304 -0.6 +09 +06 +44
New orders 1421185 | 140792 | 134/100 +10 +50 43 +79
Primary metals :
Shipments 14,968 14.793 14,845 +12 04 “16 “17
New orders 14613 14713 15,177 0.7 31 3.9 “3.8
Unfilled orders 31,288 31,643 31,723 int 0.3 can 49.0
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 31,864 32.507 32,037 2.0 +15 2 30,789 35,771 29,399 447
New orders | : 31/543 32,287 32,354 23 0.2 0.7 31,523 35,053 30.039 +49
Unlilled orders 72491 72812 73,032 0.4 03 4 7216 71.682 70,394 +29

Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments . 27,521 2 +
New orders 31262 | 26%646 | 261596 | +1
Unfilled orders 321940 | 49:199 | 497763 | +

0.2 27,913 30,290 26,232 +64
5.3 33,834 27,722 29,134 +16.1
1 53,693 47,772 52,339 42.6

Transportation equipment :

Shipments 38,786 40,806 39,771 5.0 42.6 413 40,294 42,636 39,309 42.5
New orders : anita | 44639 | 37°03 79] +190 88 | 42308 | 46,004 39/488 +76
Unfilled orders : 246,003 | 243675 | 239,842 +10 +16 209 | 244526 | 2421312 | 212.608 +150
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
‘Total :
hipments _ 48.789 | 50,148 | 49.241 +25 $5,821 44,807 +43
New orders $2,034 32:780 | 46,073 14] +146 92 37.496 | 46.017 +180
Unfilled orders: 356,441 | 353,196 | 350.564 8 -0.9 350,472 | 321,500 +104
Nondefense :
Shipments 43,104 | 44,064 | 43,304 22 +18 38,997 455
New orders "| - 47212 | 47515 | 41.172 06} +154] -10.4 40/563 +142
Unfilled orders 251,178 | 247,070 | 243,619 +17 +14 - 219/530 +144
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments : 37,393 38.424 37,564 22 423] +t 36,104 34,510 +4
New orders .0.........] 38289 | 37676 | 36.847 +16 422 49 | 37,842 35391 +69
Unfilled orders’ |: 98044 | 97348 | 98,096 +07 -08 0.7 | 97,940 95.758 423
Defense :
Shipments 6,084 5,937 6.6 +25] 437 5.571 6,629 5,810 “4
New orders 5,265 4901 “34 +74) 42.0 4784 5,591 3/454 “123
Unfilled orders 106,126 | 106,945 08 08 -10 | 103,761 | 104.548 | 101,970 +18

(NA) Not availble. Revised.

* Shipments ani new orders are the totals for the period anal are adjusted for trading-day and culendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendat-monkh variations

certor, whieh ineludes errors of coverage,

Based on advance sample. Esimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, an orders are subject to survey error and revision, One major compunent of sunve
tons afe contained. in out Oost recent annua

response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is aut 4 probability. sample, extimates of sampling error cannot be calculated, Further detils on Survey design, methodology, and dats hi
henchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(95), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1995."

“The Capital Gouds Industries include Nondefense  rdnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment
‘machinery, general industrial machinery. computer und office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, eleirial transmission and disiibution equipment, electeical indus
complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aicratt missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank componens, raileoad equipment, and search und navigation equipment

Defense capital goods inchde = urdnunee, ‘communication equipment, arcrali, mssiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank compnenis, search and navigation equipment

ing machinery, spec
lus, communicaion equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Untilled Orders

Industry Year ago Oct | Oct 1995- | Vear ago Oct | Oct 1995-| Year ago Oct | Oct 1995-

Get. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Sept. 1996 | Oct. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Sept. 1996] Oct. 1995] 1991-1995 | Sept. 1996

Durable goods 04 03 03 05 05 06 01 ou 0.

Primary metals . . 08 05 05 13 1.0 08 03 OS 04

Industrial machinery’ and equipment 01 06 07 06 nt 1.0 05 04 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . . 03 09 06 09 14 Lo 04 0A 04

Transportation equipment 08 0.5 0.6 13 07 19 01 0.0 03

Nondefense capital goods O01 ol 0.6 Ol 07 14 OL 02 03

Defense capital goods 08 Ud iat 42 3.0 61 02 on oa

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t

for the months specified.



Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

190

180

170

160

150

140

190

New Orders

pr Shipments |-| 180

170

160

150

1. 1 1 i 1 1 L L L 1. ii L it 140
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct

Oct. 1994 - Oct. 1996

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

53

48

43

38

33

Pert ee ee re ee ee re er ee ee ee eee New Orders |-+{ 53

Shipments

1 it 1 i 1 il i L 1 L L J L 33
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug = Oct
Oct. 1994 - Oct. 1996

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.