UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | witirtion

- Bl HWS BUREAU OF THE
= = WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela April 24, 1996
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB96-64
M3-1(96)-3

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
March 1996
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $2.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $167.6 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.3 percent February decline, and is the first increase since
December. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased $1.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $126.0 billion, the first decrease since November.
Year-to-date new orders are 2.3 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, up for the first month since December, had the largest increase, $3.6 billion or 9.4 percent to $41.6 billion as
a large increase in aircraft and parts more than offset a decline in motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 12.1 percent February decrease.
Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the first month since December, increased $1.3 billion or 4.8 percent to $28.2 billion,
following a 1.8 percent February decline. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since December, decreased $1.4
billion or 4.1 percent to $32.9 billion. This follows a 4.6 percent February increase. Primary metals, down four of the last five months,
decreased $0.6 billion or 3.9 percent to $13.8 billion, following a slight February increase.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in March decreased $1.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $163.2 billion, following a 1.3 percent
February increase. This is the second decrease in the last three months. Year-to-date shipments are 1.2 percent above the same period
in 1995.

Transportation equipment, down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $1.5 billion or 3.9 percent to $36.3 billion, due
to motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 1.2 percent February increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, down two of the last three
months, decreased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $33.1 billion, following a 4.6 percent February increase. Primary metals, down for the
sixth consecutive month, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $14.1 billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up four of the
last five months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.8 percent to $28.2 billion, following a 2.5 percent February increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in March increased $4.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $456.6 billion. This follows
a 0.2 percent February increase and is the seventh consecutive monthly increase.

Transportation equipment, up for the fifth consecutive month, increased $5.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $217.1 billion, due to aircraft and
arts. This follows a 0.1 percent February increase. Primary metals decreased $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $28.4 billion, following a
.4 percent February increase. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since December, decreased $0.2 billion or

0.3 percent to $74.1 billion. This follows a 1.1 percent February increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down four of the

last five months, decreased slightly to $54.1 billion, following a 1.5 percent February decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in March, up three of the last four months, increased $4.3 billion or 73.0

rcent to $10.3 billion, following a 21.1 percent February decrease. Shipments, up for the first month since December, increased $0.1

illion or 2.1 percent to $6.4 billion, following a 0.6 percent February decrease. Unfilled orders, up three of the last four months, increased
$3.9 billion or 3.6 percent to $112.6 billion, following a 0.3 percent February decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE_New orders in March increased slightly to $46.6 billion. This follows a 2.4
cent February decrease and is the first increase since December. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $0.2 bil or
.5 percent to $44.6 billion. This follows a 6.4 percent February increase. Unfilled orders increased $2.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $223.3
billion, the seventh consecutive monthly increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $40.6
billion, the first decline since December; shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $40.0 billion,
following a 6.0 Percent February increase; unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $101.5 billion, the sixth increase in the
last seven months.

© REVISED FEBRUARY DATA. Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $303.7
billion (revised from $304.0 billion); new orders, $304.5 billion (revised from $304.4 billion); unfilled orders, $475.3 billion (revised from
$474.9 billion); and total inventories, $422.3 billion (unrevised).

OUR PRESS RELEASE INTERNET ADDRESS: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

YY

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published May 2, 1996. ‘The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May 24, 1996. This report is available
on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's online information
service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe
(1-800-848-8199). The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-457-1214) can provide content information and general guidance.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Mar, Feb, Jan, | Feb; | Jan. | Dec» Mar, Feb, Mar.
1996+ 1996" 1996 | Mar? | Feb’ | — Jan. 1996 1996" 1995 | Mar.96/95—_
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments . . 163,237 | 164,286 | 162,126 06] +13 175,953 | 164,971 | 174,202 +1.0
New orders’ 2: 167,622 | 165307 | 169/238 | +14 23 181/819 | 167,364 | 176,497 43.0
Unfilled orders : 436,596 | 452/211 | 451,190 | +10] +02 461,244 | 455378 | 442,098 +43
Excluding defense
Shipments... . 156,845 | 158,024 | 155,826 7 14] -24| 169,104 | 158,957 | 167,192 +11
New orders |||: 57'365 | 159'377 | 161,722 “13 “15 20:8 | 168681 | 162;364 | 167,563 +07
Unfilled orders’ |! 5026 | 343,506 | 342;153 02 4] +18 | 346,008 | 346,431 | 327,669 $5.6
With unfilled orders :
Shipments ........ 132,611 | 132,753 | 130,411 0.1 +18]  -28] 143,263 | 130,665 | 138,707 433
New orders 136,996 | 133,774 | 137,523 2:4 27)  -0:7 | 1498129 | 133058 | 141,002 +58
Primary metals
Shipments 14,105 | 14,268 | 14,422 “ll -12 | 14,825 | 14,682 | 16,123 8.1
‘New orders 137825 | 14393 | 14300 oo} 28 | 15/290 51599 | 16,873 94
Unfilled orders: : 28/351 | 28/631 | 28/506 +04] -0.1 | 30262 | 29;797 | 31,009 “26
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments a 33,115 | 33,525 | 32,058 2] +46] -15] 38806] 32,757 | 35,220] +102
‘New orders | |? 323804 | 34/307 | 32,792 “41 +46] 432] 37504 |  33:877 | 35,741 +49
Unfilled orders 74,052 | 74273 | 73,491 03 { 411] #10] 79142 | 75444 | 71:753 433
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments ........ 23,177 | 27,684] 27,013 | +18] +25] -45| 29,745 | 26,724 | 26,568 | +12.0
New orders. |! 28175 | 26882 | 27381 | +48 18] 06 | 28,720 | 26,072 7.159 +57
Unfilled orders 343067 | 54,06 54871 0.0 5] 40.7 | 533689 | 54.714 | $0,320 +67
Transportation equipment :
Shipments . : 36316 | 37,804 | 37,349 3.9 -4.1 | 39,098 | 40,936 | 43,438 -10.0
New orders’ 1°)! 41618 | 38047 | 43;286 | +94 | 121 “30 | 46774 | 40,717 | _44;351 45.5
Unfilled orders Pilli| agiai | 211839 | 211/596 | +25 29 | 219;621 | 211,945 | 204;234 475
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total :
Shipments 50,979 | 50,627 | 48,004 7 5.5 0} 57,728 | 48.414] $3,936 47.0
New orders’ |: | 36,888 | 52541 | 55.295 | +83 30] -10} 65,112 0000 | $6,162 | +159
Unfilled orders 335,847 | 329,938 | 328/024 1 0.6 3 | 338/633 | 331,249 | 318,990 +62
Nondefense :
Shipments . 44,587 | 44365 | 41,704 | 40.5] +64 7] 30,879 | 42,400 | 46,926 +8.
New orders 46631 | 46,611 | 47,779 0.0 24] -19] 31974 | 45/00 47-228 | +10.0
Unfilled orders’ 22:22: 223:277 | 221,233 | 218/987 | +09] +10 29 | 223397 | 222/302 | 204'561 49.2
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . seseees{ 40,023 | 39,904] 37,638 03} +60] 53} 45,793 8,090 | 41,263 | +110
‘New orders | 40,625 | 41,078 | 39178 “Ll +48] 414] 45446 | 39,618 | 42,225 +76
Unfilled orders’! | 101,532 | 100/930 | 99,756 06] +412] 416] 101%652 | 101999 | 96,900 +49
Defense :
Shipments... . 6,392 6,262 6300] 421 06] 09 6,849 6,01 7,010 23
New orders "||: 10,257 5/930 7516 | +730] -211} +49] 13,138 5,000 81934 | +4711
Unfilled orders’: 112570 | 108,705 | 109/037 | +3.6 -03| +11 | 115;236 | 1081947 | 114,429 +0.7

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

" Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calenlar-month variations

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ sh
‘Since the survey panel is not a proba

response and nonreporting.
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992,"

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense < ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, intemal

jpments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage,
lity sample, estates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual

engines,

‘mining and material

r, specal industry

equipment, m ng
‘machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,

complete aieraft, missiles, and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehic

‘engines. and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

‘Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES

(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments. New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1995- | _ Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1995-| Year ago Mar. | Mar, 1995-

Mar. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Feb. 1996 | Mar. 1995 | 1991-1995 | Feb. 1996] Mar. 1995] 1991-1995] Feb. 1996

Durable goods . 03 03 03 04 0.6 05 0.2 02 02

Primary metals . a 09 0.6 04 03 Ll 1.0 04 04 04

Industrial machinery and equipment . 04 Vl 06 0.9 13 1.0 0.2 03 04

Electronic and other

electrical equipment ... . 0.2 03 05 12 ll 0.8 0.7 04 03

Transportation equipment. 07 08 06 23 24 13 03 03 03
Nondefense capital goods . 0.0 1.0 0.7 17 2.0 Ll 0.3 0.3 02—

Defense capital goods . . 0.0 0.4 09 13 21 55 0.0 0.1 03

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to

for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185

New Orders
178 F- - ~~ ee reed Shipments |-| 175

165 165

155 155

145 145

135 L . L 1 1 1 1 L L L 1 1 1 135
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
Mar. 1994 - Mar. 1996

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

53F-----------------------------------e New Orders | 53

48

43

38

33 1 1 L. L L il L L L L L 1 L 33
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar

Mar. 1994 - Mar. 1996

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.