U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-07

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

August 25, 2004

CB-04-142

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

July 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in July increased $3.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $195.6 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.1 percent June increase. Excluding

transportation, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 2.7 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 12.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.1 billion or 5.6 percent to $58.9 billion, due to non-defense aircraft and

parts, which increased $6.2 billion. Primary metals increased $0.8 billion or 5.8 percent to $14.8 billion. 

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in July increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $196.8 billion. This followed a

1.1 percent June increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2004 were 10.7 percent above the same period a year ago.

Machinery had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 3.2 percent to $25.0 billion. Computers and electronic products increased

$0.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $38.8 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in July, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $6.2 billion or

1.2 percent to $533.5 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent June increase.

Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $6.8 billion or 2.7 percent to $259.2 billion. 

Primary metals, up fourteen consecutive months, increased $0.6 billion or 3.4 percent to $19.5 billion. 

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in July, up eight consecutive months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.8 percent to

$273.7 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent June increase.

Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $0.6 billion or 0.9 percent to $69.0 billion.

Computers and electronic products, up five consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $48.7 billion. 

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in July decreased $1.6 billion or 16.2 percent to $8.1 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 3.1 percent to $8.3 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $141.6

billion. Inventories decreased 0.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $19.6 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in July increased $5.8 billion or 9.0 percent to $69.5

billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $62.7 billion. Unfilled orders increased $6.7 billion or 3.0 percent to

$234.4 billion. Inventories increased $1.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $108.3 billion.

! REVISED JUNE DATA Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders, $363.7

billion (revised from $363.2 billion); shipments, $367.9 billion (revised from $367.2 billion); unfilled orders, $527.3 billion

(revised from $527.5 billion); and total inventories, $453.1 billion (revised from $452.9 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published September 2, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for

August is scheduled for September 24 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Jul Jun May Jun - May - Apr - Jul Jun Jul Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Jul 2 Jun r May 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 196,838 196,584 194,389 0.1 1.1 -0.6 173,451 215,285 158,160 1,345,175 1,215,118 10.7

 New Orders 4

.............................. 195,586 192,362 190,245 1.7 1.1 -0.9 170,287 206,306 150,899 1,328,675 1,182,202 12.4

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 144,712 142,347 140,634 1.7 1.2 -0.9 135,500 155,693 119,421 971,508 864,187 12.4

 New Orders 4.............................. 136,674 136,568 136,949 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 127,592 146,443 114,798 947,924 829,846 14.2

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 187,170 186,953 184,620 0.1 1.3 -0.8 164,561 205,001 149,735 1,278,210 1,155,122 10.7

 New Orders 4.............................. 186,183 181,233 181,605 2.7 -0.2 -0.6 164,328 195,523 145,238 1,259,860 1,116,255 12.9

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 135,908 133,998 131,960 1.4 1.5 -0.3 121,884 145,925 109,110 914,554 826,051 10.7

 New Orders 4.............................. 142,110 136,938 135,114 3.8 1.3 -0.7 125,133 144,599 106,260 945,732 831,967 13.7

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 14,122 13,771 13,236 2.5 4.0 -0.1 13,297 14,519 10,157 93,330 77,224 20.9

 New Orders.............................. 14,758 13,952 13,706 5.8 1.8 2.8 13,923 14,390 10,136 97,114 77,059 26.0

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 23,264 22,885 22,593 1.7 1.3 -0.1 22,329 24,041 19,867 155,157 141,907 9.3

 New Orders.............................. 23,084 23,201 22,573 -0.5 2.8 -5.8 22,317 23,775 20,258 162,161 141,770 14.4

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 25,046 24,276 23,258 3.2 4.4 -2.7 23,743 26,997 19,807 168,643 147,274 14.5

 New Orders.............................. 24,999 24,483 24,223 2.1 1.1 0.1 23,394 26,360 19,781 173,918 146,157 19.0

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 38,816 38,164 38,148 1.7 0.0 -1.6 34,167 43,277 30,233 258,415 226,543 14.1

 New Orders 4.............................. 30,691 31,897 32,468 -3.8 -1.8 0.1 25,917 35,554 25,148 216,531 192,456 12.5

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,377 8,105 8,180 3.4 -0.9 -9.8 7,926 9,555 7,366 56,012 48,987 14.3

 New Orders.............................. 8,118 8,697 8,689 -6.7 0.1 0.9 7,315 10,083 6,667 55,532 49,123 13.0 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,873 6,799 6,954 1.1 -2.2 -1.6 5,729 7,768 5,396 46,367 41,104 12.8

 New Orders.............................. 6,605 6,287 6,574 5.1 -4.4 -16.6 5,147 6,311 5,748 46,544 46,221 0.7

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 7,454 7,162 7,298 4.1 -1.9 3.2 6,413 7,653 4,411 47,678 38,832 22.8

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 9,111 8,754 8,769 4.1 -0.2 -0.4 8,401 9,564 7,767 60,144 57,514 4.6

 New Orders.............................. 8,860 8,441 8,930 5.0 -5.5 -4.8 8,346 9,007 7,870 61,359 57,638 6.5

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 52,126 54,237 53,755 -3.9 0.9 0.4 37,951 59,592 38,739 373,667 350,931 6.5

 New Orders.............................. 58,912 55,794 53,296 5.6 4.7 -1.8 42,695 59,863 36,101 380,751 352,356 8.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 36,554 38,098 37,597 -4.1 1.3 -2.6 24,916 41,530 26,258 267,077 252,914 5.6

 New Orders.............................. 36,320 38,334 38,006 -5.3 0.9 -2.6 24,881 41,471 26,669 268,161 252,873 6.0 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,817 6,280 6,608 -7.4 -5.0 20.4 4,564 7,361 4,723 39,818 38,273 4.0

 New Orders.............................. 12,330 6,152 6,751 100.4 -8.9 14.6 10,767 7,225 4,001 45,017 32,208 39.8

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,534 3,709 3,664 -4.7 1.2 4.3 3,201 4,065 2,918 25,628 21,855 17.3

 New Orders.............................. 3,178 5,155 2,841 -38.4 81.5 23.8 1,894 5,262 1,852 22,598 26,764 -15.6

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 34,353 34,497 34,630 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 33,563 37,295 31,590 235,819 213,725 10.3

 New Orders.............................. 34,282 34,594 35,049 -0.9 -1.3 1.7 33,695 37,357 31,605 236,841 214,766 10.3

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 71,015 70,367 69,672 0.9 1.0 -1.4 64,795 79,115 59,372 483,984 433,018 11.8

 New Orders.............................. 77,544 73,358 70,167 5.7 4.5 -2.7 67,998 79,452 56,435 501,323 441,785 13.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 62,728 62,328 61,268 0.6 1.7 -2.0 57,068 70,705 52,007 426,689 381,887 11.7

 New Orders.............................. 69,461 63,711 62,996 9.0 1.1 -1.4 62,823 70,194 51,690 441,173 384,804 14.6

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 60,811 59,966 58,529 1.4 2.5 -2.8 55,630 67,751 49,813 410,285 364,425 12.6

 New Orders......................... 61,088 60,738 59,923 0.6 1.4 -2.0 55,239 66,637 49,556 419,636 372,344 12.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,287 8,039 8,404 3.1 -4.3 3.1 7,727 8,410 7,365 57,295 51,131 12.1

 New Orders.............................. 8,083 9,647 7,171 -16.2 34.5 -12.4 5,175 9,258 4,745 60,150 56,981 5.6

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Jul Jun May Jun - May -Apr - Jul Jun Jul 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Jul 2 Jun r May 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 533,507 527,305 524,365 1.2 0.6 0.6 533,594 530,345 486,595 9.7

 Total Inventories....................... 273,726 271,552 269,308 0.8 0.8 0.8 275,709 270,453 265,774 3.7

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 274,308 274,892 273,509 -0.2 0.5 1.3 275,229 276,724 240,754 14.3

 Total Inventories....................... 204,768 203,209 201,058 0.8 1.1 1.1 206,046 202,591 197,537 4.3

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 373,216 366,749 365,307 1.8 0.4 1.2 373,787 367,607 336,099 11.2

 Total Inventories....................... 249,465 247,273 244,942 0.9 1.0 0.8 251,213 246,044 242,498 3.6

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 533,507 527,305 524,365 1.2 0.6 0.6 533,594 530,345 486,595 9.7

 Total Inventories....................... 213,698 211,601 209,906 1.0 0.8 0.7 215,268 210,813 208,280 3.4

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 19,549 18,913 18,732 3.4 1.0 2.6 19,786 19,160 14,294 38.4

 Total Inventories....................... 19,093 18,827 18,529 1.4 1.6 1.0 19,215 18,744 17,963 7.0

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,370 44,550 44,234 -0.4 0.7 0.0 45,025 45,037 36,763 22.5

 Total Inventories....................... 33,217 32,861 32,481 1.1 1.2 1.7 33,399 32,922 31,165 7.2

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 48,273 48,320 48,113 -0.1 0.4 2.0 48,157 48,506 41,303 16.6

 Total Inventories....................... 44,206 43,828 43,249 0.9 1.3 1.4 44,118 43,487 41,690 5.8

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 135,204 135,875 134,980 -0.5 0.7 1.2 134,950 136,787 123,562 9.2

 Total Inventories....................... 48,653 48,157 47,534 1.0 1.3 0.3 49,414 47,715 48,091 2.8

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,461 8,720 8,128 -3.0 7.3 6.7 8,325 8,936 8,260 0.8

 Total Inventories....................... 6,181 6,078 5,883 1.7 3.3 1.8 6,229 5,996 6,122 1.7 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 49,969 50,237 50,749 -0.5 -1.0 -0.7 49,946 50,528 49,864 0.2

 Total Inventories....................... 10,779 10,604 10,723 1.7 -1.1 -0.4 10,956 10,377 11,351 -3.5

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,512 14,763 15,076 -1.7 -2.1 1.1 14,630 14,685 13,916 5.1

 Total Inventories....................... 12,689 12,616 12,504 0.6 0.9 1.6 12,742 12,666 12,406 2.7

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 259,199 252,413 250,856 2.7 0.6 -0.2 258,365 253,621 245,841 5.1

 Total Inventories....................... 68,958 68,343 68,250 0.9 0.1 -0.1 69,663 67,862 68,237 2.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,756 14,990 14,754 -1.6 1.6 2.9 14,704 14,739 12,092 21.6

 Total Inventories....................... 21,329 21,502 21,200 -0.8 1.4 0.3 21,685 21,322 20,616 5.2 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 110,890 104,377 104,505 6.2 -0.1 0.1 110,270 104,067 105,429 4.6

 Total Inventories....................... 24,155 23,425 23,498 3.1 -0.3 -1.2 24,257 23,054 25,048 -3.2

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 57,406 57,762 56,316 -0.6 2.6 -1.4 57,740 59,047 60,873 -5.1

 Total Inventories....................... 11,715 11,687 11,584 0.2 0.9 -0.1 11,861 11,767 11,012 7.7

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,400 12,471 12,374 -0.6 0.8 3.5 12,681 12,549 10,916 16.2

 Total Inventories....................... 46,910 46,920 46,761 0.0 0.3 1.1 47,158 47,057 46,222 2.0

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 375,986 369,457 366,466 1.8 0.8 0.1 375,136 371,933 347,478 8.0

 Total Inventories....................... 127,927 126,897 126,109 0.8 0.6 0.8 128,530 126,090 125,636 2.3

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 234,369 227,636 226,253 3.0 0.6 0.8 234,031 228,276 216,319 8.2

 Total Inventories....................... 108,335 107,180 106,409 1.1 0.7 0.8 108,828 106,259 106,840 1.9

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 148,353 148,076 147,304 0.2 0.5 1.0 148,635 149,026 136,190 9.1

 Total Inventories.................. 90,836 90,409 89,477 0.5 1.0 1.2 91,308 89,831 89,167 2.4

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 141,617 141,821 140,213 -0.1 1.1 -0.9 141,105 143,657 131,159 7.6

 Total Inventories....................... 19,592 19,717 19,700 -0.6 0.1 1.0 19,702 19,831 18,796 4.8

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.