UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | vitsth.
N =—-WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 PORCENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth May 25, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB94-85
M3-1(94)-04 .

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
April 1994
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $147.0 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.7 percent increase in March. Excluding
transportation equipment, new orders were up $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent, the eleventh consecutive monthly increase.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, up $1.8 billion or 8.6 percent to $23.3 billion, with
increases in all categories which were led by electronic components. This is the fourth increase in the last five months. Stone,
clay, and glass also had a large increase. Primary metals had the largest decline, down $0.9 billion or 6.6 percent to $12.4
billion, following a 6.0 percent increase in March. Transportation equipment decreased $0.6 billion or 1.6 percent to $35.7
billion, as declines in railroad equipment and motor vehicles and parts more than offset an increase in aircraft and parts.
Fabricated metal products also had a large decrease.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in April decreased $0.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $146.6 billion, the second decrease in
the last four months. Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, down $1.1 billion or 2.8 percent to $37.7 billion,
primarily due to aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment declined $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $26.2 billion.
Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, up $0.7 billion or 3.2 percent to $22.1 billion, with increases
in nearly all categories. This is the sixth consecutive monthly increase.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in April increased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $423.8 billion, the first increase
since January. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the tenth consecutive month, had the largest increase, up $1.7
billion or 3.1 percent to $57.8 billion, with increases in nearly all categories. Electronic and other electrical equipment
increased $1.2 billion or 2.6 percent to $47.3 billion, primarily due to clectronic components. Transportation equipment had
the largest decrease, down $2.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $209.7 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts. This is the twenty-
third decrease in the last twenty-four months. Instruments and related products also had a large decrease.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were up $1.1 billion or 23.3 percent to $6.1 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts. This
follows a revised 19.6 percent decrease in March and is the first increase in the last three months. Shipments decreased $0.2
billion or 3.0 percent to $6.9 billion, following a 2.9 percent increase in March, the second decrease in the last three months.
Unfilled orders, down fourteen of the last fifteen months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $113.1 billion, with decreases
in nearly all industry categories. This is the lowest level since September 1983.

Nondefense - New orders decreased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $35.8 billion, following a 0.6 percent decrease in
March. This is the third consecutive monthly decline. Shipments decreased $0.6 billion or 1.7 percent to $35.8 billion,
following a 1.8 percent increase in March. Unfilled orders remained at $199.7 billion, following a 0.1 percent decline in March.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent, the first decrease in the last three months,
shipments increased $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent, the second increase in the last three months; and unfilled orders increased $1.7
billion or 2.1 percent, the eleventh consecutive monthly increase.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators. durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 2, 194. ‘The advance report on durable goods for May is scheduled for June
23, 1994. ‘This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and
through the Census Bureau’s online information serviceCCENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog
Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-763-2074) can provide


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Apr, Mar. Feb. | Mar; | Feb-|  Jan~ Apr Mar. Apr
19 1994 1994 | Apr? | Mar’ | Feb. 19 i994 1993 | Apr.94/93
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments 146,574 | 147,400 | 146,260 -0.6 +08] +11} 146,977 | 158,209 | 133,168 +104
New orders 147,047 | 146,962 | 145,882 | +0.1 +07 18 | 148,434 | 158314 | 130,821 +135
Unfilled orders 423,785 | 423,312 | 423,750 +0.1 “0.1 -O.1 | 428,312 | 426,855 | 447,877 44
Exgluding defense :
Shipments. 139,656 | 140,265 | 139,324 04 +07] +13 | 140,558] 150,742] 126180] +114
New orders”: 140,963 | 142/026 | 139°746 07 +16 08 | 143,164 | 152,255 | 124,787 +147
Unfilled orders 310,681 374 | 307613 | +04 +06 313,780 | 314174 | 319:172 7
With unfilled orders
Shipments. . 116,095 | 116,648 | 114,979 0.5 415 113,984 | 125,405 | 103,975 +96
New orders 116,568 | 116,210 | 114,601 +03 +14 115,441 | 125,510 | 101,628 | +13.6
Primary metals :
Shipments . 12,224 12,246 | 12,140 0.2 +09 12,589 12,778 W711 475
New orders |.) | 127386 13,261 12512 -6.6 +60] 43.8 12,696 14,607 11,435 +110
Unfilled orders’: : 24219 | 24057 | 237042 +0.7 +44 25,502 | 25,395 | 24,184 454
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 26216 | 26,506 | 26,362 “Ll +05] +5.0] 25,658 | 30,651 22,505 +140
New orders. 27,935 | 27,854 | 27116] +03 427) +48] 27355 | 31311 22362 4223
Unfilled orders 57,761 5042 54,694 43.1 425] +14] 58038 | 56341 50,639 +146
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments : 22,113 21,429 21,288 43.2 +0.7 +1.0 21,237 BD 657 17,808 +193
New orders - . -. 23318 | 21476 | 20,965 +86 424 6.0 | 23,285 796 18,682 | +246
Unfilled orders: 47330 | 46,125 | 46,078 +26 40.1 0.7 | 48/131 FR 083 | 43,514 +10.6
Transportation equipment :
Shipments . 37,748 | 38,854 | 38,768 2. +02 93] 39480) 41g4o | 36,734 475
New orders”: 351686 | 36,269 | _37;496 16 33 92 | 37,495 | 40.242 | 33,341 +123
Unfilled orders 209,712 211,774 214,359 - ol. -0.6 211,242 213,227 235/929 -10.5
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments .. . 42,750 | 43,571 42,728 -19 42.0] +17] 40,503] 48,698 | 37,801 +01
New orders’ | - 41913 | 41,093 | 42,518 +20 34 42 | (39:455 | 46,332 | 34,960 +129
Unfilled orders 312,841 | 313,678 | 316,156 03 08 “01 | 314,647 | 3157695 | 337,661 68
Nondefense :
Shipments 35,832 | 36,436 | 35,792 “17 +18 34,084 | 41,231 30,813 +106
order: 35,82: 36,157 36,382 0.9 0.6 0.7 34,185 40,273 28,926 +182
Uatlied orders 90737 | 199;740 | 200,019 0.0 Ol 200,115 | 200,014 | 208/956 42
Excluding aireraft and parts :
Shipments . 31,189 30,903 31,091 +09 0.6 29,582 34,997 25,367 416.6
New orders | 32,881 3,11 32,031 0.7 +34 +53 31/378 36,525 26,001 420.7
Unfilled orders’: 81,529 | 79/837 | 77,630 | +2.1 428 81907 | 80,111 Nd +142
Defense :
Shipments . 6,918 135 6,936 33.0 +29 6,419 467 6,988 8.1
New orders 6,084 4936 6.136 | +233] -196 5,270 qi 059 6,034 -127
Unfilled orders 113,104 113,938 116,137 07 AD 114,532, 115,681 128,705 110

(NA) Not available, * Revised,

\ Shipments anv new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for wading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for traing-day or calendar-month variation

"Basel on advance sample, Exits of manufactures shipments and ores are subject fo survey varity and revision, Sic te survey panel is nota probaity sample estimates of sampling vara, cnn be aka
Funber details on survey design, methodology, and data limitation are in our most recent annual publication, Current Reports: M3-1(92), "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992.

2 The Capital Goods Indusiries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal onbatn engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special indust
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer ar office equipment, refigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipmen
‘complete aircraft, missles, and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, ana space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank component, cailroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago ‘Apr | Apr. 1993-| Year ago “Apt | Apr. 1993-] Year ago Apr. | Apr. 1993

Apr. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Mar. 1994 | Apr. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Mar. 1994] Apr. 1993] 1989-1993 | Mar. 1994

Durable goods ....... wee 0.0 O01 03 83 03 04 Ol 0.0 01

Primary metals . . . 12 0.5 0.5 1S 12 0.7 04 05

Industrial machinery and equipment . 19 08 0.7 2 3 id 0.7 01 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment rs 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 09 12 0.0 02 03

Transportation equipment .......- 0.6 04 06 15 08 13 Ol 0.1 0.2

Nondefense capital goods 08 0.6 05 22 08 10 01 0.1 0.1

Defense capital goods . 04 0.6 09 93 47 6.1 0.1 01 0.3

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

165 165
New Orders
155 P- ~~ ee eee eee eee 4 Shipments |=] 155

145 ET A145

135

125 125

115 L 1 1 L L L 1 L L L L L L 115
Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr
Apr. 1992 - Apr. 1994

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45

New Orders
40F----------------------------------- Shipments |-] 40

25 bo i L i L L n n n n 4 L Lt 95

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr
Apr. 1992 - Apr. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.