U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy (301) 763-4832

M3-1(03)-11

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

December 24, 2003

CB-03-199

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

November 2003

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $5.7 billion or 3.1 percent to $180.1 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This was the largest percent decline since September 2002. This

followed a 4.0 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.7 percent. Excluding defense, new

orders decreased 2.9 percent. Year-to-date, new orders for 2003 were 2.0 percent above the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products had the largest decrease, $3.7 billion or 10.8 percent to $30.1 billion, due to communications

equipment, which decreased by $3.8 billion. This was the largest percent decline in computers and electronic products since July

2000.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in November, up six of the last seven months, increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent

to $184.1 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent October increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2003 were 0.1 percent above the same

period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up five of the last seven months, had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 1.7 percent to $53.3 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in November, up four consecutive months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.4

percent to $502.3 billion. This followed a 1.6 percent October increase.

Machinery, up four consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.6 billion or 1.5 percent to $42.3 billion. Primary metals, up six

consecutive months, also increased $0.6 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in November, down thirty-two of the last thirty-four months, decreased $0.3

billion or 0.1 percent to $262.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent October increase. 

Transportation equipment, down five of last six months, had the largest decrease, $0.6 billion or 0.9 percent to $67.0 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in November decreased $0.4 billion or 4.7 percent to $8.8 billion. 

Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 4.8 percent to $7.5 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $136.2

billion. Inventories increased $0.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $19.1 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in November decreased $4.0 billion or 6.4 percent to $57.8

billion. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $58.9 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.1 billion or 0.5 percent to

$221.0 billion. Inventories decreased $0.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $105.1 billion.

! REVISED October DATA Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders,

$342.3 billion (revised from $341.2 billion); shipments, $340.5 billion (revised from $339.9 billion); unfilled orders, $500.1 billion

(revised from $499.6 billion); and total inventories, $438.6 billion (revised from $438.5 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published January 6, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for

December is scheduled for January 28 at 8:30 A.M. EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Nov Oct Sep Oct - Sep - Aug - Nov Oct Nov Change

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Nov 2 Oct r Sep 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2003 2002 03/02

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 184,102 183,989 182,379 0.1 0.9 2.9 179,417 192,797 174,969 1,961,888 1,960,276 0.1

 New Orders 4

.............................. 180,065 185,812 178,738 -3.1 4.0 2.2 174,891 193,493 164,968 1,910,386 1,872,056 2.0

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 130,793 131,586 129,313 -0.6 1.8 1.5 127,156 135,256 123,574 1,393,771 1,381,832 0.9

 New Orders 4.............................. 126,301 131,175 127,404 -3.7 3.0 3.0 122,609 135,008 114,895 1,342,884 1,304,408 2.9

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 175,315 174,976 172,956 0.2 1.2 2.9 170,288 183,873 166,181 1,864,715 1,874,516 -0.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 169,661 174,650 169,655 -2.9 2.9 4.0 164,738 183,385 157,827 1,805,948 1,788,212 1.0

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 124,292 123,915 123,057 0.3 0.7 2.8 121,521 127,902 119,872 1,327,240 1,346,320 -1.4

 New Orders 4.............................. 126,490 131,996 125,027 -4.2 5.6 1.0 123,488 135,003 115,663 1,340,125 1,311,426 2.2

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 10,991 10,964 10,782 0.2 1.7 1.9 10,367 11,628 10,744 121,018 126,208 -4.1

 New Orders.............................. 11,611 11,919 10,885 -2.6 9.5 -1.0 10,913 12,200 10,078 122,008 124,383 -1.9

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 20,408 20,461 20,424 -0.3 0.2 2.2 19,768 21,928 20,457 225,839 233,093 -3.1

 New Orders.............................. 20,668 20,888 20,755 -1.1 0.6 1.1 19,949 22,131 19,938 226,168 231,116 -2.1

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 21,239 21,866 21,375 -2.9 2.3 1.5 19,760 21,825 19,926 231,251 235,036 -1.6

 New Orders.............................. 21,878 22,075 21,411 -0.9 3.1 1.5 20,417 22,090 19,107 230,671 225,021 2.5

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 36,351 36,521 35,614 -0.5 2.5 0.8 36,260 35,959 33,356 373,685 354,078 5.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 30,089 33,741 32,878 -10.8 2.6 7.2 30,045 33,724 26,826 319,962 291,379 9.8

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,251 8,450 8,077 -2.4 4.6 1.3 7,514 8,612 6,302 82,392 72,863 13.1

 New Orders.............................. 8,188 8,209 8,279 -0.3 -0.8 -0.2 7,829 8,340 6,707 83,147 73,124 13.7 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,679 6,771 6,565 -1.4 3.1 0.5 6,846 6,121 6,780 67,867 71,590 -5.2

 New Orders.............................. 5,764 9,600 8,039 -40.0 19.4 15.2 6,008 9,670 6,512 75,683 67,055 12.9

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 6,235 6,258 5,611 -0.4 11.5 -11.7 6,493 6,405 5,792 64,387 53,326 20.7

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,554 8,561 8,463 -0.1 1.2 2.0 8,451 8,583 8,623 92,264 94,896 -2.8

 New Orders.............................. 8,442 8,663 8,598 -2.6 0.8 2.0 8,308 8,877 8,409 92,423 94,352 -2.0

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 53,309 52,403 53,066 1.7 -1.2 6.5 52,261 57,541 51,395 568,117 578,444 -1.8

 New Orders.............................. 53,764 54,637 51,334 -1.6 6.4 0.2 52,282 58,485 50,073 567,502 567,648 0.0

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 37,655 37,846 38,059 -0.5 -0.6 6.7 35,828 43,550 36,164 409,130 420,969 -2.8

 New Orders.............................. 37,907 38,349 38,539 -1.2 -0.5 8.2 36,328 43,912 36,458 409,904 420,563 -2.5 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,867 5,486 5,637 6.9 -2.7 5.7 6,274 4,904 6,223 60,715 69,106 -12.1

 New Orders.............................. 4,841 5,625 4,663 -13.9 20.6 -5.1 5,094 4,635 5,458 52,263 57,020 -8.3

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,017 3,380 3,515 -10.7 -3.8 3.0 3,265 3,375 3,470 35,711 31,915 11.9

 New Orders.............................. 3,575 3,931 3,668 -9.1 7.2 3.7 3,134 3,131 2,713 38,832 35,422 9.6

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 33,250 33,213 32,655 0.1 1.7 1.8 32,550 35,333 30,468 349,714 338,521 3.3

 New Orders.............................. 33,613 33,889 32,877 -0.8 3.1 2.9 32,977 35,986 30,537 351,652 338,157 4.0

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 66,381 66,522 66,430 -0.2 0.1 3.4 64,381 65,613 61,339 698,353 685,101 1.9

 New Orders.............................. 66,553 70,953 67,803 -6.2 4.6 0.6 64,373 70,082 58,802 710,701 654,761 8.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 58,894 58,660 58,438 0.4 0.4 3.5 56,633 57,798 53,881 615,464 612,670 0.5

 New Orders.............................. 57,777 61,749 60,225 -6.4 2.5 5.2 55,727 61,647 52,810 620,970 587,566 5.7

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 56,021 56,253 55,774 -0.4 0.9 3.1 53,501 55,858 50,876 588,021 577,751 1.8

 New Orders......................... 55,588 59,079 58,188 -5.9 1.5 6.0 53,433 59,852 50,038 599,763 562,762 6.6

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 7,487 7,862 7,992 -4.8 -1.6 2.7 7,748 7,815 7,458 82,889 72,431 14.4

 New Orders.............................. 8,776 9,204 7,578 -4.7 21.5 -25.4 8,646 8,435 5,992 89,731 67,195 33.5

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies. Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Nov Oct Sep Oct - Sep - Aug - Nov Oct Nov 2003/

2003 2 2003 r 2003 Nov 2 Oct r Sep 2003 2 2003 r 2002 2002

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 502,285 500,087 492,006 0.4 1.6 0.4 493,564 491,597 477,626 3.3

 Total Inventories....................... 262,128 262,410 261,678 -0.1 0.3 -0.5 263,141 263,307 271,153 -3.0

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 253,412 251,669 245,822 0.7 2.4 1.5 249,763 247,817 236,975 5.4

 Total Inventories....................... 195,154 194,856 194,455 0.2 0.2 -0.5 195,541 194,663 204,689 -4.5

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 345,505 344,924 338,992 0.2 1.7 0.7 341,754 340,811 337,870 1.1

 Total Inventories....................... 238,755 239,175 238,719 -0.2 0.2 -0.6 239,651 239,846 250,182 -4.2

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 502,285 500,087 492,006 0.4 1.6 0.4 493,564 491,597 477,626 3.3

 Total Inventories....................... 204,918 205,327 204,769 -0.2 0.3 -0.5 205,896 206,301 213,962 -3.8

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 16,237 15,617 14,662 4.0 6.5 0.7 15,449 14,903 14,475 6.7

 Total Inventories....................... 17,291 17,144 17,382 0.9 -1.4 -2.4 17,332 17,101 18,961 -8.6

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 37,501 37,241 36,814 0.7 1.2 0.9 37,229 37,048 37,747 -1.4

 Total Inventories....................... 30,969 30,801 30,900 0.5 -0.3 -0.5 30,730 30,604 31,631 -2.8

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 42,289 41,650 41,441 1.5 0.5 0.1 41,840 41,183 43,497 -3.8

 Total Inventories....................... 41,595 41,687 41,381 -0.2 0.7 -0.3 41,978 41,789 43,523 -3.5

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 131,614 131,641 128,163 0.0 2.7 2.3 129,481 129,203 117,110 10.6

 Total Inventories....................... 47,115 47,172 46,937 -0.1 0.5 0.0 47,638 47,345 52,604 -9.4

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,621 8,684 8,925 -0.7 -2.7 2.3 8,879 8,564 7,436 19.4

 Total Inventories....................... 5,954 6,068 6,166 -1.9 -1.6 -0.4 6,275 6,128 6,801 -7.7 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 53,537 54,452 51,623 -1.7 5.5 2.9 52,563 53,401 45,424 15.7

 Total Inventories....................... 11,119 11,000 11,043 1.1 -0.4 0.8 11,286 10,948 14,006 -19.4

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,047 14,159 14,057 -0.8 0.7 1.0 13,951 14,094 13,908 0.3

 Total Inventories....................... 12,318 12,284 12,284 0.3 0.0 -0.6 12,215 12,164 12,790 -4.5

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 248,873 248,418 246,184 0.2 0.9 -0.7 243,801 243,780 240,651 1.3

 Total Inventories....................... 66,974 67,554 67,223 -0.9 0.5 -0.3 67,600 68,644 66,464 1.7

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,281 13,029 12,526 1.9 4.0 4.0 12,907 12,407 11,680 10.5

 Total Inventories....................... 20,115 20,023 20,002 0.5 0.1 -1.8 20,181 20,154 20,695 -2.5 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 103,805 104,831 104,692 -1.0 0.1 -0.9 103,042 104,222 110,712 -6.9

 Total Inventories....................... 24,221 24,822 25,050 -2.4 -0.9 0.2 24,654 25,525 25,511 -3.4

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 61,681 61,123 60,572 0.9 0.9 0.3 59,085 59,216 54,511 8.4

 Total Inventories....................... 11,042 11,029 10,846 0.1 1.7 2.1 11,137 11,190 9,659 15.3

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 11,724 11,361 10,685 3.2 6.3 2.1 11,813 11,386 10,238 15.4

 Total Inventories....................... 45,866 45,768 45,571 0.2 0.4 -0.6 45,648 45,660 45,180 1.0

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 357,197 357,025 352,594 0.0 1.3 0.4 351,059 351,067 334,261 5.0

 Total Inventories....................... 124,175 124,533 124,497 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 125,638 125,461 131,478 -4.4

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 221,018 222,135 219,046 -0.5 1.4 0.8 218,908 219,814 213,627 2.5

 Total Inventories....................... 105,120 105,750 105,935 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 106,552 106,634 114,024 -6.6

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 141,360 141,793 138,967 -0.3 2.0 1.8 140,013 140,081 129,953 7.7

 Total Inventories.................. 88,042 88,167 88,152 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 89,004 88,435 94,810 -6.1

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 136,179 134,890 133,548 1.0 1.0 -0.3 132,151 131,253 120,634 9.5

 Total Inventories....................... 19,055 18,783 18,562 1.4 1.2 0.2 19,086 18,827 17,454 9.4

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.