ee 5 = ECONOMICS
ATES DEPARTMENT OF AND

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE
WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 April 25, 2001

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-01-76

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(00)-03

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE Goops MAM UE ACT! ‘URERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
farcl 1

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.1 billion or 3.0 percent to $205.1
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.3 percent February decrease.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.8 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2001 are 6.2 percent below the
same period a year ago; new orders for the first quarter are 4.7 percent below the fourth quarter.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $8.9 billion or 21.4 percent to $50.7 billion; led by shipbuilding and
tanks, all component industries increased. Electronic and other electrical equipment, led by electronic components,
decreased $2.1 billion or 5.3 percent to $37.4 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.3 billion or 0.7
percent to $41.9 billion. Primary metals, down six consecutive months, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $13.7
billion.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in March increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $199.9 billion, following a
0.9 percent February decrease. This is the first increase since September 2000. Year to date, shipments for 2001 are 4.2
percent below the same period a year ago; shipments for the first quarter are 3.7 percent below the fourth quarter.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $44.2 billion; led by motor vehicles and
parts, all component industries increased. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $41.5
billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down five of the last six months, decreased $1.1 billion or 2.8 percent to
$38.7 billion, mostly due to electronic components. Primary metals, down nine consecutive months, decreased $0.1 billion
or 1.0 percent to $14.1 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in March increased $5.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $574.5
billion, following a 0.1 percent February decrease. Transportation equipment, led by shipbuilding and tanks, had the largest
increase, $6.5 billion or 2.5 percent to $269.0 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, up three consecutive months,
increased $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $93.4 billion, due to engines and turbines. Electronic and other electrical equipment,
down four consecutive months, decreased $1.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $94.0 billion. Primary metals, down sixteen of the
last.seventeen months, decreased $0.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $28.5 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in March increased $4.3 billion or 62.0 percent to $11.2
billion, Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $6.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $4.7 billion or 4.3 percent
to $114.9 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in March increased $3.1 billion or 5.2 percent to
$62.2 billion. Shipments increased $0.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $60.2 billion. Unfilled orders increased $2.1 billion or
0.7 percent to $297.3 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders, down five of the last six months, decreased $0.4
billion or 0.7 percent to $51.2 billion; shipments increased $0.8 billion or 1.6 percent to $51.4 billion; and unfilled orders
decreased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $131.0 billion.

© REVISED FEBRUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $364.3 billion (revised from $364.5 billion); new orders, $363.5 billion (revised from $363.0 billion); unfilled
orders, $594.2 billion (revised from $593.4 billion); and total inventories, $494.8 billion (revised from $494.9 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS
Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers" shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published May 1 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May 25, 2001 at 10:00



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

Total:

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Mar Feb Jan Feb - Jan - Dec - Mar Feb Mar Mar
2001? | 2001‘ | 2001 Mar? Feb‘ Jan 2001? | 2001 | 2000 | 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments. 199,949] 199,752] 201,519 217,090] 195,455] 231,213] 6.1
New Order 205,115] 199,060) 199,560 , 194,366] 236,632] -7.0
Unfilled Ord 574,494) 569,328] 570,020 573,906] 571,039} 530,985] +8.1
Excluding defense:
Shipments. 193,392] 195,039 210,081] 189,352] 223,972
New Orders 192.161] 194,101 207,799] 188,319] 229,007
Unfilled Orders. 459,174] 460,405 458,216] 460,498} 434,047

With unfilled order

Shipments. 169,764] 171,204 182,993] 164,549] 190,109

New Orders 169,072] 169,245 185,860] 163,460| 195,528)
Primary metals:

Shipments. 14,074) 14,217] 14,457 0.5] 14,792] 14,504] 16,935)

New Order: 13,658] 13,896] 14, -05] 14/451] 15,092] 16,992

Unfilled Or 28,465] 28,881] 29,202 -1.4] 29/618] 29,959] 33,068
Industrial machinery and equipment

Shipments. 41,451] 41,187] 43,432 48,116] 39,071] 48,699)

40,424 48,622
93,558 93,862 85,244

New Orders
Unfilled Orders.

Electronic and other

41,924) 42,226 43,578
93,368 92,895 91,856

t+t

9e>

Rua
s
Si
re
rs

38,733 39,832 40,318

41,077 37,966) 41,976
e , 36,475) 45,842
93,956 95,260)

37,918 y e
91,439 94,598) 92,628)

Unfilled Orders.
Transportation equipmet
Shi

48,760 43,330 53,705) 9.
; 41,764 .
269,378| 262,783] 231,269| +16:

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES *

Shipments.. 66,612 65,790 66,452) 0 -3.1 75,464) 61,274 74,685) +1.0

New Orders 73,412 66,067 68,818) 0) -12.0 81,974) 61,468 75,995) +7.9)

Unfilled Orders. 412,154) 405,354) 405,077) +04 +0.6| 413,196] 406,686] 360,998] +14.5
Nondefense:

Shipments.. 60,174 59,430) 59,972 68,455 55,171 67,444) +15

New Orders 62,238 59,168) 63,359 , E 68,370) +24

Unfilled Orders. 297,264} 295,200} 295,462 297,506] 296,145] 264,060] +12.7

Excluding aircraft and parts:

pment: 51,413 50,617) 52,821 58,861 46,617 60,418) -2.6
New Order $1,222 51,600 94,247 57,967 48,112 60,533) 4.2
Unfilled Orders. 131,027} 131,218] 130,235 131,269] 132,163] 121,019) +8.5)

Soe
wae

6,438) 6,360 6,480) +1.2) -1.9 -2.4 7,00! 6,103 7,241 x
New Orders. 11,174) 6,899 5,459) +62.0) +26.4 -10.8 12,158 6,047 7,625) +5!
Unfilled Orders. 114,890] 110,154] 109,615 +43) +0.5| -0.9] 115,690] 110,541] 96,938] +1

(NA) Not Available’ Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month vari
not ‘adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

® Based on advance sample. tes of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error
nonsampling enor. whiel ancludes orove of coverages reapers en Wonreper Seder are ahiect 10 nor probably samt, cetmnates of oarpphng error cantor be calculated.
Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(97),
"Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1997."

2 ‘The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessor engines and turbines, internal combustion construction mining and material handling
equipment marakworklag machinery. speci! industry moctioary, general dustrial mechivery. computer snd office equipment. reiigeretion, Nesting and service industry machinery,
seenical Vanemiseion aad distibuton equipment, secticel Indusval apparatus, communication equipment, complete araft, misaHes, and space vehicles, aircraft mislles, and
‘space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Defense Capital Goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, sircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment,

ions; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on Seasonally Adjusted Data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders.

Industry Year ago| Mar] Mar. 2000-| Year ago] Mar] Mar. 2000-[ Year ago| ‘Mar.] Mar. 2000-
Mar. 2000] 1996-2000] _Feb. 2001] _Mar. 2000] 1996-2000] _ Feb. 2001] Mar. 2000] 1996-2000] _ Feb. 2001,
0.9) 0.5 0.5) 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3) 0.2

0.1 0.3] 0.3) 0.0) 11 0.6 0.0 0.4)

0.9: 0.7 0.9) 0.3] 1.0 1.2 0.5) 0.3

Electronic and other

electrical equipment... | 0.3 0.8) 0.9 0.8) 1.0} 1.9) 0.3 1.3) 0.6)
Transportation equipmen 2.4 1 0.8 “1.9 2.2 1.8 0.0 0.4 0.2
Nondefense capital good “1.7 0.8 0.9 -2.6 15 1.4] -0.3} 0.4 0.2
Defense capital goods. 9.5 2.9) 1.4) 24.4 12.9) 6.7 11 0.7 0.4

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple



TOTAL DURABLE GOODS
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
230 pilligns Of Dollars

230
225 ma 225
220 \ 220
215 = = 215
210 ws ~ ~ 210
-_— “XN
205 gras SX 205
200 Cw 200
195 195
190 190
a aD a a oa i=J i=} f=} °o c=] Oo id -
° 2 2 ° 2 ez ° g gz ° z ez °
L a Ae a L
— — Shipments —— New Orders
NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
70 pBilligns Of Dollars 70
65 65
60 60
55 Sa 55
50 50
a a a iy a f=} =] ° [<3 =} ° = =
° ° 2 2 ° 9 ° g ° ° ° ° °
L a a L i L
2 £3 $ §$ & § F$ 3 ¥ S$ & F
— — Shipments —— New Orders

ote: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.