FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2015, AT 8:30 A.M. EST 

Adriana Stoica 

Economic Indicators Division 

(301) 763-4832 

M3-1 (15)-10 

CB 15-194

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders 

October 2015 

New Orders 

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in 

October increased $6.9 billion or 3.0 percent to $239.0 

billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This 

increase, up following two consecutive monthly 

decreases, followed a 0.8 percent September decrease. 

Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 

percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.2 

percent. 

 

 Transportation equipment, also up following two 

consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $6.1 

billion or 8.0 percent to $82.1 billion. 

Shipments 

 Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, 

down two of the last three months, decreased $2.5 

billion, or 1.0 percent, to $240.1 billion. This followed a 

0.2 percent September increase. 

 Transportation equipment, also down two of the last 

three months, led the decrease, $2.0 billion or 2.5 

percent to $78.8 billion. 

 

Unfilled Orders 

 Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in 

October, up following two consecutive monthly 

decreases, increased $3.5 billion or 0.3 percent to 

$1,192.0 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent September 

decrease. 

 Transportation equipment, also up following two 

consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $3.3 

billion or 0.4 percent to $798.2 billion. 

Inventories 

 Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, 

down five of the last six months, decreased $0.7 billion, 

or 0.2 percent, to $397.4 billion. This followed a 0.6 

percent September decrease. 

 Primary metals, down nine consecutive months, led the 

decrease, $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $35.7 billion. 

Capital Goods 

 Nondefense new orders for capital goods in October 

increased $9.7 billion or 13.2 percent to $83.2 billion. 

Shipments decreased $1.2 billion or 1.4 percent to $78.8 

billion. Unfilled orders increased $4.4 billion or 0.6 

percent to $757.8 billion. Inventories increased less than 

$0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $175.6 billion. 

 Defense new orders for capital goods in October 

increased $0.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $9.6 billion. 

Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $10.7 

billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.1 billion or 0.7 

percent to $146.8 billion. Inventories decreased $0.6 

billion or 2.6 percent to $21.9 billion. 

Revised September Data 

 Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all 

manufacturing industries were: new orders, $467.0 

billion (revised from $466.3 billion); shipments, $477.6 

billion (revised from $477.3 billion); unfilled orders, 

$1,188.5 billion (revised from $1,187.9 billion); and 

total inventories, $644.0 billion (revised from $645.1 

billion). 

Figures in text are adjusted for seasonality, but not for inflation. Figures on new and unfilled orders exclude data for semiconductor 

manufacturing. For data, call (301) 763-4673 or go to <http://www.census.gov/m3>. Revised and more detailed estimates, plus 

nondurable goods data, will be published on December 3, 2015, at 10:00 a.m. EST. The Advance Report on durable goods for November 

is scheduled for release on December 23, 2015 at 8:30 a.m. EST. See back page for survey description. To receive the latest updates on the 

Nation's key economic indicators, download the America's Economy app for Apple and Android smartphones and tablets. To learn more 

about this release and the other indicators the U.S. Census Bureau publishes, join us for the Investigating Economic Indicators Webinar 

Series. For more information, visit www.census.gov/econ/webinar. 

“Virtually unchanged” indicates that the change is less than 0.05 percent for a percent increase or decrease. 
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Change

2015 2 2015 r 2015 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2015 2 2015 r 2014 2015 2014 2015/2014

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Shipments................................ 240,111 242,577 241,985 -1.0 0.2 -0.5 246,157 257,261 250,415 2,411,590 2,371,268 1.7

 New Orders4

.............................. 238,976 232,048 233,960 3.0 -0.8 -2.9 240,240 246,778 242,659 2,327,709 2,429,911 -4.2

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 161,358 161,836 161,490 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 164,669 170,422 171,069 1,629,647 1,646,034 -1.0

 New Orders4

.............................. 156,894 156,071 156,239 0.5 -0.1 -0.9 157,730 163,802 164,518 1,576,862 1,621,254 -2.7

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 226,919 229,642 229,594 -1.2 0.0 -0.3 233,235 242,976 238,656 2,290,535 2,254,055 1.6

 New Orders4

.............................. 225,953 218,976 222,567 3.2 -1.6 -2.1 227,793 231,643 230,575 2,216,729 2,309,841 -4.0

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 171,936 173,217 173,321 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 173,740 184,076 177,182 1,725,527 1,690,146 2.1

 New Orders.............................. 175,457 167,538 170,048 4.7 -1.5 -3.4 173,360 178,054 176,222 1,690,141 1,805,266 -6.4

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 20,107 20,204 20,346 -0.5 -0.7 -1.8 20,524 20,616 24,778 214,741 236,175 -9.1

 New Orders.............................. 19,857 19,777 20,286 0.4 -2.5 -1.1 20,005 19,491 24,387 211,889 237,429 -10.8

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 29,515 29,507 29,640 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 30,838 31,049 32,236 302,155 303,783 -0.5

 New Orders.............................. 29,417 29,663 29,090 -0.8 2.0 -2.6 29,868 30,665 32,178 301,290 308,952 -2.5

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 33,284 33,508 33,411 -0.7 0.3 -0.7 33,580 34,290 34,491 334,703 342,100 -2.2

 New Orders.............................. 33,400 32,865 32,955 1.6 -0.3 -0.6 33,246 33,242 33,426 327,331 354,246 -7.6

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Shipments................................ 29,684 29,769 29,536 -0.3 0.8 1.2 29,205 32,820 28,371 288,809 281,136 2.7

 New Orders.............................. 25,626 25,167 25,252 1.8 -0.3 -0.1 24,195 29,105 22,835 247,195 234,027 5.6

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 2,033 1,965 2,015 3.5 -2.5 -5.9 1,691 2,447 1,665 20,114 21,768 -7.6

 New Orders.............................. 2,061 1,953 2,005 5.5 -2.6 -4.6 1,719 2,435 1,714 20,238 22,217 -8.9

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 3,639 3,713 3,630 -2.0 2.3 -1.7 3,408 4,436 3,307 36,498 35,855 1.8

 New Orders.............................. 4,002 3,930 3,854 1.8 2.0 -5.6 3,904 4,726 3,642 39,956 39,941 0.0

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 10,094 10,168 10,167 -0.7 0.0 -2.0 10,216 10,786 10,765 103,357 105,179 -1.7

 New Orders.............................. 9,885 9,993 10,152 -1.1 -1.6 -0.8 10,057 10,510 11,156 102,725 107,941 -4.8

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 78,753 80,741 80,495 -2.5 0.3 -0.4 81,488 86,839 79,346 781,943 725,234 7.8

 New Orders.............................. 82,082 75,977 77,721 8.0 -2.2 -6.9 82,510 82,976 78,141 750,847 808,657 -7.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 51,716 53,148 52,756 -2.7 0.7 -1.7 55,846 55,722 53,378 518,098 473,085 9.5

 New Orders.............................. 51,656 53,207 52,686 -2.9 1.0 -2.0 55,338 55,689 53,122 516,540 474,140 8.9

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 13,696 14,376 15,324 -4.7 -6.2 10.1 12,402 16,460 12,741 139,058 122,979 13.1

 New Orders.............................. 17,492 9,663 14,245 81.0 -32.2 -11.3 14,257 12,436 11,449 121,346 199,724 -39.2

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,474 5,385 5,067 1.7 6.3 -4.0 5,291 6,092 4,549 48,076 46,324 3.8

 New Orders.............................. 5,671 6,488 5,028 -12.6 29.0 15.4 6,298 7,680 5,674 43,850 44,168 -0.7

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 38,674 38,680 38,390 0.0 0.8 -0.6 40,306 40,861 40,428 385,882 377,661 2.2

 New Orders.............................. 38,709 38,606 38,504 0.3 0.3 -0.1 40,359 40,789 40,536 386,432 378,659 2.1

 Capital goods3

:

 Shipments................................ 89,449 90,447 90,256 -1.1 0.2 0.6 87,880 98,007 88,192 883,860 865,844 2.1

 New Orders.............................. 92,803 82,992 86,794 11.8 -4.4 -7.0 87,330 89,491 84,963 854,548 958,058 -10.8

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 78,757 79,911 80,257 -1.4 -0.4 1.3 77,465 86,393 78,858 786,311 772,576 1.8

 New Orders.............................. 83,174 73,454 78,181 13.2 -6.0 -4.6 79,435 78,459 76,818 766,904 862,818 -11.1

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 69,522 69,804 69,301 -0.4 0.7 -0.8 69,118 74,508 69,892 691,334 690,476 0.1

 New Orders.......................... 70,046 69,131 68,863 1.3 0.4 -1.4 69,115 73,177 69,976 689,302 716,428 -3.8

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 10,692 10,536 9,999 1.5 5.4 -4.5 10,415 11,614 9,334 97,549 93,268 4.6

 New Orders.............................. 9,629 9,538 8,613 1.0 10.7 -23.8 7,895 11,032 8,145 87,644 95,240 -8.0

r

 Revised data due to late receipts and concurrent seasonal adjustment.

1

 Estimates of shipments and new orders are for the duration of the period, while estimates of unfilled orders and total inventories are for the end of the period. Not seasonally adjusted estimates of 

shipments and new orders include adjusted data for non-calendar reporters. Seasonally adjusted estimates include concurrent adjustments for holiday and trading-day differences, where appropriate, 

as well as seasonal variation, based on the results of the latest annual review of the model parameters. Estimates are not adjusted for price changes.

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. For further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations, see http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3.

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending, 

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Estimates and percent changes of shipments and inventories for the semiconductor industry are included in computers and electronic products, and all other applicable aggregate totals.

 Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories 1

[Estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey.]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct 2015/

2015 2 2015 r 2015 Oct 2 Sep r Aug 2015 2 2015 r 2014 2014

DURABLE GOODS

 Total: 

 Unfilled Orders4......................... 1,192,026 1,188,505 1,194,184 0.3 -0.5 -0.3 1,179,516 1,179,896 1,204,931 -2.1

 Total Inventories....................... 397,438 398,104 400,531 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 397,765 396,310 395,087 0.7

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

......................... 393,853 393,661 394,576 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 389,859 391,261 397,083 -1.8

 Total Inventories....................... 266,439 266,972 268,137 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 266,207 265,518 267,965 -0.7

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................... 1,009,785 1,006,095 1,011,911 0.4 -0.6 -0.2 998,557 998,462 1,011,650 -1.3

 Total Inventories....................... 370,468 370,561 371,871 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 370,919 368,704 369,668 0.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 1,192,026 1,188,505 1,194,184 0.3 -0.5 -0.3 1,179,516 1,179,896 1,204,931 -2.1

 Total Inventories....................... 324,193 325,113 327,107 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 324,464 323,675 323,699 0.2

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 34,784 35,034 35,461 -0.7 -1.2 -0.2 33,330 33,849 35,840 -7.0

 Total Inventories....................... 35,672 36,001 36,417 -0.9 -1.1 -1.6 35,469 35,924 38,696 -8.3

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 81,821 81,919 81,763 -0.1 0.2 -0.7 80,961 81,931 82,818 -2.2

 Total Inventories....................... 49,118 49,037 48,927 0.2 0.2 0.0 48,649 48,603 48,038 1.3

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 110,880 110,764 111,407 0.1 -0.6 -0.4 109,807 110,141 120,216 -8.7

 Total Inventories....................... 65,989 66,144 66,341 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 66,165 65,956 67,287 -1.7

 Computers and electronic products4

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 135,694 135,096 134,848 0.4 0.2 0.3 135,396 134,869 127,451 6.2

 Total Inventories....................... 44,866 44,943 45,539 -0.2 -1.3 -1.0 45,350 44,693 45,105 0.5

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 2,596 2,568 2,580 1.1 -0.5 -0.4 2,596 2,568 2,438 6.5

 Total Inventories....................... 3,313 3,429 3,596 -3.4 -4.6 -6.3 3,426 3,416 4,081 -16.0

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 40,149 39,786 39,569 0.9 0.5 0.6 40,103 39,607 35,546 12.8

 Total Inventories....................... 5,579 5,442 5,571 2.5 -2.3 -0.7 5,632 5,376 6,024 -6.5

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 22,135 22,344 22,519 -0.9 -0.8 -0.1 21,927 22,086 22,618 -3.1

 Total Inventories....................... 16,440 16,473 16,579 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 16,449 16,206 16,350 0.6

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 798,173 794,844 799,608 0.4 -0.6 -0.3 789,657 788,635 807,848 -2.3

 Total Inventories....................... 130,999 131,132 132,394 -0.1 -1.0 0.6 131,558 130,792 127,122 3.5

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 21,635 21,695 21,636 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 20,472 20,980 19,975 2.5

 Total Inventories....................... 35,748 35,410 35,815 1.0 -1.1 -0.2 36,083 35,338 34,155 5.6

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 612,365 608,569 613,282 0.6 -0.8 -0.2 606,064 604,209 612,030 -1.0

 Total Inventories....................... 67,436 67,346 67,090 0.1 0.4 0.2 67,605 66,835 65,918 2.6

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 65,518 65,321 64,218 0.3 1.7 -0.1 65,163 64,156 68,429 -4.8

 Total Inventories....................... 11,870 11,954 12,784 -0.7 -6.5 2.9 11,878 11,969 12,913 -8.0

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,539 8,504 8,578 0.4 -0.9 1.3 8,438 8,385 8,140 3.7

 Total Inventories....................... 54,354 54,374 54,334 0.0 0.1 0.0 54,125 54,136 52,489 3.1

 Capital goods3

:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 904,616 901,262 908,717 0.4 -0.8 -0.4 894,922 895,472 915,472 -2.2

 Total Inventories....................... 197,469 198,013 199,573 -0.3 -0.8 -0.1 198,302 197,179 197,714 0.3

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 757,809 753,392 759,849 0.6 -0.8 -0.3 749,587 747,617 757,009 -1.0

 Total Inventories....................... 175,557 175,512 175,963 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 176,522 174,630 177,195 -0.4

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 245,990 245,466 246,139 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 244,334 244,337 247,477 -1.3

 Total Inventories................... 119,353 119,663 120,158 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 120,210 119,264 122,274 -1.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 146,807 147,870 148,868 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 145,335 147,855 158,463 -8.3

 Total Inventories....................... 21,912 22,501 23,610 -2.6 -4.7 2.9 21,780 22,549 20,519 6.1

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
4 

Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, 

and Orders (M3) survey, which is a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code. 

This survey provides statistics on a calendar-month basis for manufacturers' value of shipments, new 

orders (net of cancellations), end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), end-of-month total inventory 

(at current cost or market value), and inventories by stage of fabrication (materials and supplies, work-inprocess, and finished goods). Data published from the M3 survey are based on a panel of approximately 

4,800 reporting units that represent approximately 3,000 companies and provide an indication of monthto-month change for the Manufacturing Sector. These reporting units may be divisions of diversified 

large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 92 industry categories, 

which are combined into 65 publication levels due to the small monthly panel size. The survey 

methodology assumes that the month-to-month changes of the total operations of the reporting units in the 

M3 panel effectively represent the month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the 

category. 

The companies for which shipments data are currently reported or imputed in the M3 survey represent 

approximately 61 percent of the total value of shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 

Economic Census, and these companies include almost two-thirds of the manufacturing companies with 

$500 million or more in shipments in the 2012 Economic Census. The companies for which shipments 

data are currently reported in the M3 survey represent approximately 54 percent of the total value of 

shipments for manufacturing establishments in the 2012 Economic Census. Statistics based on the M3 

panel differ from the results that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all manufacturing 

companies. The M3 panel is not based on a probability sample; therefore, the sampling errors that are 

normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are attributable to many 

sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for establishments is 

one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-to-month 

movement of all companies is another potential source. Any corrections will be published in the full 

report. Corrections received after the full report will be released in the next month’s advance report. Any 

revisions made later than two months will be reflected in the annual benchmark publication. 

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3. 

Release Dates for the M3 Survey 

Survey month Advance Report 

(8:30 a.m. release time) 

Full Report 

(10:00 a.m. release time) 

October 2015 November 25, 2015 December 3, 2015 

November 2015 December 23, 2015 January 6, 2016 

December 2015 January 28, 2016 February 4, 2016 

January 2016 February 25, 2016 March 3, 2016 

February 2016 March 24, 2016 April 4, 2016 

March 2016 April 26, 2016 May 4, 2016 

April 2016 May 26, 2016 June 3, 2016 

May 2016 June 24, 2016 July 5, 2016 

June 2016 July 27, 2016 August 4, 2016 

July 2016 August 25, 2016 September 2, 2016 

August 2016 September 28, 2016 October 5, 2016 

September 2016 October 27, 2016 November 3, 2016 

October 2016 November 23, 2016 December 6, 2016 

November 2016 December 22, 2016 Not available at this time 

Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/statpolicy/pfei-schedule-of-releasedates-2016.pdf