un

Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
Shipments and Three Month

Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars

Durable Goods Excluding

Transportation
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars
155000 155000 160000 160000
155000 ry 155000
0000 15000 iP
\
A MAN 150000 I 2, 150000
145000 145000 L i
ye \ a 4 | \ 145000
140000 J \ 140000 || 140000 \y \ 140000
aN 135000 \ 135000
135000 135000 \
\ 130000 130000
130000 + 130000
125000 125000
125000 Vi 125000, 120000 Vy 120000
B88888885 5555 RRS88888 55555
eee he og Eg ee ey eee tog ge bct ad
6s 225326568 & 2336 68 2232568 F252 8
— = — Shipments Average — = — New Orders Average
Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars VS Ratios UO /S Ratios
240000 240000 2.9 2.9
235000 235000
230000 J 230000 24 24
225000 St \\ 225000
220000 Wa \ 220000 Lo 19
215000 215000
7 oo .e
210000 210000 4 4
BREESE 5555S R888 8 88 5555 5
$e eet oe gate Be ¢$¢46 € ee eo gee gay
68 2 F372 582 F328 66 223268 & 25 2 8
— — inventories ——— Average —- 1s vo/s

Note: All charts

based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Durable Goods Durable Goods
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars.
210000 210000 250000 250000
205000 ry i 205000 || 240000 1 240000
200000 I le —TM 200000 || 730000 I I 23
A K\ 220000 220000
195000 195000 J
“ha 210000 210000
190000 190000
LN 200000 |“ 200000
185000 185000
K 190000 190000
180000
*80000 \ 180000 180000
175000 44 175000 || 0000 170000
170000 170000 160000 160000
RRESESESEE SEES RR8888885 5555
$ eee aoeg eee ESSE boe¢e hb egg eee ang
Set PRPS FPRRZE Se PF SFS RPEEBSE
— — Shipments Average —  — New orders Average
Nae
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UO/S Ratios
315000 315000 || 4.75 4.75
4.25 4.25
ma\ 375 3.75
305000 305000
\ 3.25 3.25
\ 2.75 2.75
295000 + 295000
YY \ 2.25 2.25
\
75 1.75
285000 285000 1.25 1.25
e22eege2e2eeorenc ee e2egssgee888s555565
i a a 797 99289 9 8 Fe ee
sea ke bob GS eet ete ag 6 ¢ eb ede oe 4 EE DE
6g ff 32566 PS FR7Z6 oaé Ff 52566 F233 6
— — Inventories Average —_—_—— 1/5 ua/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Nondefense Capital Goods
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
75000 75000 85000 85000
72000 72000 || #0000 ny 50000
15000 pA 7000
69000 69000 Vi\
70000 fir 70000
66000 66000 V aw
65000 65000
63000 63000 aN
\\ «0000 S""
60000 A] 2% || ss000 V 55000
57000 $7000 50000 50000
RR888988555 55 288898855555
¢¢42h eng g Ee os oe he be oOo Ege EE SEE
6422326868 225256 6a 223256 2 2526
— = Shipments Average — —= New Orders Average
Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars VS Ratios ‘UO/S Ratios
135000 135000 3.5 3S
5.0 5.0
45 45
130000 130000
4.0 4.0
35 35
3.0 3.0
125000 N 125000
25 25
0 — 2.0
120000 120000 “Ls Ls
eeegegegegeegee8enescsg 227929299989 5 eo we ee
77 299999222 F a a
eee e nog egg e ae bg £éeop eg eEtadg
6822353268 £2326 68 2 23525 8 & F338
— <= Inventories Average —— 1/5 uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


ECONOMICS
DEPARTMENT OF AND

ES
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

Cc
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BiPPiiiz=
BLES 2227 = BUREAU OF THE
BS. FE WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 November 29, 2001
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-01-190
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(01)-10

Special Notice: Because of the terrorist attacks of September 11, the Census Bureau altered an option in its seasonal adjustment procedures used to produce the
seasonally adjusted data for the September and October releases. ‘This alteration ensured that the published seasonally adjusted values fully include the effects of
the attacks and eliminated the distortion that September's atypical events would otherwise have had on seasonal factors for September, October, and surrounding
months. The revised seasonal adjustment option was used whenever the appropriate statistical test showed that the unadjusted September or October value was not
in a typical range. For further information, see http://hwww.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/oct200 | faq. htm!

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS! SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
OCTOBER 2001

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in October, up for the first time since May, increased $20.9 billion or 12.8 percent to $184.8
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.4 percent. Year to
date, new orders are 12.4 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, led by defense aircraft and parts, had the largest increase, $16.8 billion or 38.8 percent to $60.1 billion; nondefense
aircraft and parts increased $1.8 billion or 49.3 percent to $5.4 billion. Computers and electronic products increased $3.0 billion or 10.3 percent
to $32.2 billion; this is the largest increase since May 2000. Fabricated metals increased $0.6 billion or 3.1 percent to $19.9 billion.

@ SHIPMENTS of durable goods in October, up for the first time since May, increased $5.5 billion or 3.2 percent to $180.0 billion. Year to
date, shipments are 7.8 percent below the same period a year ago.

All durable goods subsectors increased. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.1 billion or 6.3 percent to $51.8 billion, due to
motor vehicles and parts; nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $0.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $8.2 billion. Machinery increased $0.7 billion or
3.2 percent to $23.2 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for durable goods in October, up for the first time since December 2000, increased $4.7 billion or 0.9 percent to
$557.2 billion.

Transportation equipment, the only subsector to increase, was up $8.3 billion or 3.0 percent to $286.8 billion, due to defense aircraft and parts;
nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $2.8 billion or 1.9 percent to $141.5 billion. Machinery, down nine of the last ten months, decreased
$1.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $58.2 billion. Computers and electronic products, down eleven consecutive months, decreased $0.9 billion or 0.7
percent to $127.1 billion. Primary metals, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.7 billion or 3.8 percent to $17.7 billion; this is the largest
decrease since October 1998.

@ INVENTORIES for durable goods in October, down nine consecutive months, decreased $1.3

ion or 0.4 percent to $290.7 billion.
Computers and electronic products, down eight consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $0.8 bi

ion or 1.4 percent to $52.1 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October increased $12.4 billion or 206.3 percent to $18.4 billion. Shipments
decreased $0.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $6.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $12.0 billion or 9.8 percent to $134.4 billion. Inventories
increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $18.2 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in October, up for the first time since March, increased $3.8 billion or 7.4
percent to $55.0 billion. Shipments, up for the first time since May, increased $0.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $59.5 billion. Unfilled orders, down
ten consecutive months, decreased $4.5 billion or 1.8 percent to $253.2 billion. Inventories, down nine consecutive months, decreased $0.7
billion or 0.5 percent to $124.1 billion.

@ REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $322.2

billion (revised from $323.1 billion); new orders, $311.6 billion ( revised from $313.1 billion); unfilled orders, $552.5 billion ( revised from
$553.2 billion); and total inventories, $460.7 billion ( revised from $460.9 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods
data will he mublished December 6. 2001 at 10:00 A.M. The advance renort on durable goods for Novemher is scheduled far December 28. 2001 at 8:30 A.M


Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars. Billions Of Dollars.
55000 55000

48000 48000 rn
ok 50000 | 50000
45000 45000 i
42000 ~ \ 42000 ’
40000 40000
39000 Ly \ 39000 \
IN ss000 YO s500
36000 36000 y
33000 33000 || 30000 30000

Tt
30000 30000 25000 25000
$8 8333885 55 5 8 8833933838555 56
$e 3 6b og Seb Ee SE gabe ae on rr a
68 FFF ERP ERPS SS 2852 FF PRRZE
— — = Shipments Average — — = New Orders Average
Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UOsS Ratios
65000 65000 4s 5.0
4.0 45
4.0
35
60000 60000
/ 3.5
1 3.0
3.0
25
25
55000 55000
20
2.0
\ us Ls
$0000 50000 1.0 1.0
2888888355555 2888888855555
toe ea ge ae geactede ee ee ee ae
és 2 F575 GPRS §s SERPS ZS EEZSB
— = Inventories Average —_—— 1/5 o/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adiusted '
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Oct Sep Aug Sep ; Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct
2001 * 2001' 2001 Oct 7 Sep‘ Aug 2001 * 2001 2000 of 00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipment: 180,039] 174,503] 185,543 +3.2 -6.0) -1.1] 183,867] 188,978] 205,241] -10.4
New Orders.......- 184/764] 163,847] 180/539] = +128 “9.2 -0.6] 185,925} 177/927] 204/126 “8.9
Excluding transportation
Shipments. 128,210] 125,756] 131,677 +2.0 4.5) -1.21 129,357] 135,879] 149,225} -13.3
New Orders. 124,674] 120,563] 128,860 43.4 “6.4 0.0] 125,755) 129,823] 150,259] -16.3
Excluding defense:
Shipments.. 172,794] 166,857] 178,082 +36 -6.3 -1.21 176,639] 180,547] 198,699] -11.1
New Orders. 165,329] 156,630] 173,951 +56 +10. -0.2] 167,805] 170,764] 198,042] -15.3
Primary metals:
Shipments. 11,507{ 11,318] 11,951 +17 -1.2] 11,882] 11,460] 13,629] -12.8
New Order: 10,812} 11/100] 11,774 “2:6 1:2] 10,724] 10/810] 12/838] -16.5
Fabricated metal products
Shipment: 20,239] 19,903} 20,555 +17 +0.8] 21,191] 20,414] 21,987 3.6
New Orde 19,932| 19,327) 20,185 +34 <1] 20,271] 19/377} 21/729) “6.7
Machinery:
Shipment: 23,235] 22,515} 24,701 +3.2 8.8 +0.4] 22,741] 23,768] 24,816) 8.4
New Orders. 22,168) 22,240) 24,034 0.3) 75) +18] 21/508] 23,655] 24,762] -13.1

Computers. and and clectronic product
hi

33,142) 32,904) 33,261 40.7 5.9] 32,131] 38,620] 45,183] -28.9
32,248] 29/245] 32,010}_—-+ 10.3} +0.2/ 31/919] 35/247] 46,433) -31:3
‘Computers and related products:
Shipment: 7,846 7,824] 7,386 +03 +5.9 13.2 7,252 9,651) 11,018] -34.2
New Orders, 8.192} 6.917] 7/443] + 18.4 71 88 7543) 8523] 10,973] -31.3
Communications equipment:
Shipments, 5,990] 6,117 6,577 2.1 -2.0 5,557 7,324] 9,004) -38.3
New Order: 5.690] 3,597] 5.922] + 58.2 -1.9) 5,519| 5.713) 9,419] -ata
Semiconductors:
Shipment: 6,240] 6,318) 6,014 “1.2 +51 -9.1 6,277 7,100] 9,620] -34.8
New Orders. 5,482 6.619] 5,662 17:2} +1691 +20.7| 6,398 71321] 10,241] 37:5
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and component:
Shipment: 10,014) 10,652 +23 +15 10,885} 11,017
New Orders. , 10,413} +38 “2.2 0,128] 11,293}
Transportation equipment
Shipment: 51,829] 48,747] 53,866 +63 0.7} 54,510] 53,099] 56,016]
New Orders. 60,090] 43/284) 51/679] + 38.8] -2.1]  60,170{ 48,104] 53/867
Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipments. 35,985] 32,380] 38,004] +111 14.8 -0.7| 39,803] 34,854] 42,568)
New Orders. 35,559] 32,157/ 37/819] + 10.6] -18.0 -0.7| 39/360] 34/520] 42/495
Aircraft and parts:
Shipments. 10,579] 11,186] 10,757 5.4 +4.0 -1.0) 9,442] 12,345] 8,489)
New Order: 20,672) 6,205 8,943 233.2 -30.6 -8.8] 17,070] 8,638] «6,315
All other durable good:
Shipments 30,073] 29,330] 30,557 $2.5 -4.0) +0.6] 31,721] 30,732] 32,593] “2.7
New Orde 29/333] 30,444 +17 -3.6| +03] 31,767/ 30,605] 33/204 “4:3
Capital goods:
Shipments 65,944] 65,458] 68,121 +0.7 -3.9) -2.1{ 63,379] 72,707] 74,006
New Orde 73,391] 57,208] 64/722} _+28.3] 116 -1.7] 68,685] 65,591] 73,231
Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments... 59,513| 58,965) 61,468 +0.9 “41 -2.6| 56,981{ 65,577] 68,372] -16.7
New Orders. 54/983] 51,200] 58/921 +74 “13.1 -0.9] 51143] 59/546] 67/861] -24.6
Defense capital goods:
Shipments. 6,431 6,493] 6,653 -1.0] 2.4 +3.3 6,398] 7,130] 5,634) 413.6
New Orders. 18,402} 6,008] 5,801 208.3 +3.6 -8.4{ 17/542 6,045 5.370] 226.7

(NA) Not Available "Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and
are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

ple. Estimates of manut

{urers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is
includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.
design, methodology. and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(00),
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2000.”

* The Capital Goods small arms and nce; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery: indi
machinery; vending, laundry, nd other machinery: photographic equipment; metalworking machinery: turbines and generators; other power transmission ‘equipment; pumps

ial handling equipment: all other machinery: electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment:
igation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical {squipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks;
aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies.

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.



a

3
Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES
(Millions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted '
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Oct Sep Aug Sep - Aug - Jul - Oct Sep Oct Oct
20017 | 2001° 2001 Oct Sep‘ Aug 20017 | 2001° 2000 | 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Orders 557.241] 552,516] 563,172 +0.9 +19) -0.9] 548,566] 546,508] 582,188] 5.8
Total Inventori 290,678] 291/941] 295,392 -0.4| “1.2 -0.9] 290,944] 290/120] 308/632 5.7
Excluding transport
Unfilled Orders 270,428] 273,964] 279,157 1.9 -1.0] 267,815} 271,417] 315,330) -15.1
Total Inventories. 216,080} 217,776} 221,229] “1:6 “1.0/ 215,180] 215/297] 229/728] -8:3.
Excluding defense:
Unfilled Orders. 404,289] 411,754] 421,981 “1.8 2.4] -1.01 400,306] 409,140] 445,093] -10.1
Total Inventories. 269,142] 270,648] 273/887 -0.6 “1:2 “1.0 269,134] 268/298] 285/048 5.6
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders. 17,721] 18,416] 18,634 3.8 1.2] 79.9] 16,735] 17,893] 18,924] -11.6
Total Inventories. 20,230] 20,402] 20,560 -0.8| -0.8 “1.2 20,177) 20,379] 22/832] 11/6
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders.. 40,736] 41,043] 41,619 -0.7| 1.4] :0.9] 40,077] 40,997] 42,895 “6.6
Total Inventories 33,770] 33/854] 34/011 -0.2 -05 -0.3/ 33,351] 33/522] 35/076 4.9
Machinery:
Unfilled Orders. 59,310] 59,585, “1.8 0.5 “J] 57.754) 58,987] 64,472) -10.4
Total Inventorie: 50,074] 50/288) -0.6 -0.4| 0.7} 49,760] 49,459] 50,760] -2'0.
Computers and electronic products
Unfilled Order: 127,121] 128,015] 131,674 0.7 2.8 29-9] 126,438] 126,650! 156,028] -19.0
Total Inventorie: 52,080] 52,835] 55.349 -1.4] “4.5 “1.8 51,913) 51/936] 58/219] “10.8
Computers and related product:
Unfilled Order: 9,551 9,205] 10,112 +3.8 9.0} +0.6/ 9,537 9,246] 10,152 -6.1
Total Inventories 8,252} 8,151 8,568 +12 “4:9 “1.6f 8,103] 7,810] 9008] -10.0
Communications equipmen
Unfilled Order: 41.317) 41,617] 44,137 0.7 5.7 40,837] 40,875] 49,271] 17.1
Total inventorie: 9/307 91770] 10,850] -4.7) -10:0 9/337; 66: 12,472) -26.1
Semiconductors:
Unfilled Orders 14,695] 15,453] 15,152 49) +2.0 -2:3] 15,655] 15,534] 29,829] -47.5
Total Inventories. 7,616| 7.776 7,987 24 2:3] -0.3| 7,497 7,438] “7/601 14
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders. 16,523] 16,861] 17,329 2.0} -14)  16,346] 16,471] 19,211 14.9
Total Inventories. 15,016} 15,018] 15/151 0.0 0.5] 14,845] 14/615] 15.641
Transportation equipment
PeUintiled Orders 286,813] 278,552] 284,015 +3.0 -1.9| -0.8] 280,751] 275,091] 266,858
Total Inventories. 74,598) 74,165) “74/163 +06 0:0} 0.3) 75,764!" 74/823] “78/904
Motor vehicles and part:
Unfilled Orders. 11,945] 12,371] 12,594 “1.8 14) 11,451) 44,894) 43,118] -12.7
Total Inventories. 20,932) 21/095] 21/214) -0.6 “1.4) 20,947/ 21/1121 23/168 “3.6
Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Order 199,305] 189,212! 194,193] +5.3 -2.6 -0.9] 196,100} 188,472] 179,612} +9.2
Total Inventorie: 41,781] 41,262] 41177 +13 +0.2 +0.5/ 42,794) 41/730 43/521 17
Alll other durable goods.
Unfilled Orders. 10,084} 10,319) 10,316 -2.3} 0.0 “1.1)  10,465] 10,419] 13,799] -24.2
Total Inventories. 45,227 45/593] 45.870 0:8) -0.6| “1.0] 45,044! 45/386] 47/200 “4.6
Capital pods:
infilled Orders. 387,609] 380,162} 388,412 +2.0 “24 0.8] 380,766] 375,460] 393,172] — -3.2
Total Inventories 142,364] 142/993] 145/311 -0.4] +16 0.6] 143,351! 142/263] 150,426] 4.7
Nondefense capital goods.
Unfilled Orders. 253,188] 257,712] 265,477 1.8 -2.9) =1.0] 250,234{ 256,072] 271,302 78
Total Inventorie: 124,144 124/830| 126/954 05 “1:7 0.8) 124/945] 123/638} 131/210 4.8
Defense capital goods:
Untiled Orde 134,421! 122,460| 122,935 +9.8 -0.4| -0.7/ 130,532} 119,388} 121,870] 47.1
Total Inventorie: 18,220] 18,163] 18/357 +03 141 +0.8) 18,406] 181625] 19/216 4:2

'e footnotes at end of Table 1