Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions OF Dolls Billions Of Dollars
155000 155000 160000 160000
155000 ry 155000
150000 150000 A ry
\
MN 150000 =, 150000
145000 145000 1
Vv \ 145000 \ 145000
140000 + 140000 140000 140000
aN 135000 135000
135000 135000
\ 130000 130000
130000 \ 130000 maw
\ A 125000 SeTM 125000
125000 V. 125000 120000, V. 120000
888888555555 8 PSSSs8seeesss
22528 882528 R 2 225288 F2535 8 8
— — Shipments Average — — NewOrders Average
Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars. ‘US Ratios UO/S Ratios
240000 240000 34 34
235000 235000
2.9 2.9
230000 30000 LOO
225000 225000
24 24
220000 220000
215000 215000
go oO
210000 210000 a a
205000 205000 ed 4
8838885555558 8888885555558
225258 25278 82 222278 82 £538 8 2
— =~ Inventories Average —_—— 1S uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Durable Goods
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Durable Goods
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollass
210000 210000 250000 250000
205000 Vawe 205000 || 240000 j 240000
aN 230000 230000
200000 200000 | |
195000 195000 J
ha 210000 210000
190000 190000
Vv yy 200000 200000
\ NN 190000 V7 Te 190000
180000 PO 7 12 | 80000 Whe 180000
175000 d 175000 170000 v 170000
170000 170000 || 160000 160000
geg2eeeensns55g58 seesesege8ss5sssqsa
eee ee838 222288 2 ee eeeeee eee 3g
exec ange eect engga eeeoge eEE SHE EB
25238 82 F525 SB 2es35 82 F528 82
— <= Shipments Average — == New Orders Average
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UO/S Ratios
315000 315000 4.75 4.75
4.25 4.25
305000 305000
3.75 3.75
\ 3.25 3.25
295000 \ 295000
\ 2.75 2.75
2.25 2.25
285000 285000
N m EE se
275000 275000 125 4.25
8838335555558 8883885555558
See ap eget aga ee eog ge eget So ges
22322568 2FSZZ25 8 # 2232646 22326682
— = Inventories Average —_—_—— 1S uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Nondefense Capital Goods
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
75000 75000 85000 85000
72000 72000 80000 80000
aa 75000 75000
69000 69000
YY’ 70000 70000
sso00 A 6000 raw
65000 65000
63000 63000 aN
60000 aN 60000
60000 60000 || << o00 OA 55000
Vy
57000 57000 $0000 50000
8828885555558 8888885555558
2558 $4 £54 8 8 atte oaogte ee Et bh gg
2232686 ©2226 62 €232682 232668
— — Shipments Average — = New Orders Average
Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars. US Ratios ‘UO/S Ratios
135000 135000 5S 3.5
UAN 5.0 5.0
130000 130000 4S 4s
4.0 4.0
125000 \ 125000 35 35
\ 3.0 3.0
120000 NX 120000 25 25
2.0 2.0
——.
115000 115000 Ss Ls
segsegeegssnnsansg ggseggegs5n55558
i aa ay a a A 5 Gs
eae eag eect ee ga 4ié¢oag ys ebb eh hg
2235266 22326862 2232686 2 232642
— — Inventories Average _—_—— Ss uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.



ly 2S
D STATES DEPARTMENT OF EON

STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

WASHINGTON, DC 20230 U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

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U.S. Census Bureau For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 March 26, 2002

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-02-42

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(02)-2

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
FEBRUARY 2002

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in February increased $2.7 billion or 1.5 percent to $179.4 billion, the Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This was the third consecutive increase and followed a 1.3 percent January increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.3 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2002 were 4.6 percent below the same period a year
ago.

Transportation equipment, led by aircraft and parts, had the largest increase, $4.4 billion or 8.6 percent to $55.3 billion; nondefense aircraft and
parts increased $2.2 billion or 47.2 percent to $7.0 billion. Electrical equipment increased $0.5 billion or 5.5 percent to $9.5 billion. Computers
and electronic products, down for the first time since September, decreased $0.8 billion or 2.4 percent to $33.6 billion.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in February decreased $5.9 billion or 3.2 percent to $178.0 billion. This followed a 1.8 percent January
increase. Year to date, shipments for 2002 were 6.5 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, down for the first time since September, had the largest decrease, $3.0 billion or 5.4 percent to $52.5 billion, mostly
due to motor vehicles and parts; nondefense aircraft and parts increased $0.1 billion or 2.0 percent to $7.7 billion. Computers and electronic
products, down for the first time since September, decreased $1.4 billion or 4.1 percent to $33.0 billion. Primary metals decreased $0.5 billion or
4.6 percent to $10.8 billion. Fabricated metal products decreased $0.4 billion or 2.2 percent to $19.8 billion.

© UNFILLED ORDERS for durable goods in February increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $538.1 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent
January decrease

Transportation equipment, led by ships and boats, had the largest increase, $2.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $274.9 billion; nondefense aircraft and
parts, down ten consecutive months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $130.1 billion. Computers and electronic products increased $0.6
billion or 0.5 percent to $125.8 billion, due to semiconductors. Machinery, down seven of the last eight months, decreased $1.5 billion or 2.6
percent to $55.2 billion; this is the largest decrease on record.

@ INVENTORIES for durable goods in February, down thirteen consecutive months, decreased $1.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $278.7 billion.
This followed a 0.9 percent January decrease.

Computers and electronic products, down twelve consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $0.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $48.4 billion.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in February increased $3.7 billion or 78.6 percent to $8.5 billion. Shipments
decreased $0.6 billion or 9.0 percent to $6.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $2.1 billion or 1.6 percent to $132.9 billion. Inventories
increased $0.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $18.8 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE. New orders in February increased $2.7 billion or 4.9 percent to $57.3 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $59.4 billion. Unfilled orders, down fourteen consecutive months, decreased $2.0 billion or
0.9 percent to $238.3 billion. Inventories, down thirteen consecutive months, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $118.6 billion.

© REVISED JANUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted January figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $331.3 billion
(revised from $333.2 billion); new orders, $324.1 billion (revised from $325.8 billion); unfilled orders, $536.7 billion (revised from $536.4
billion); and total inventories, $443.7 billion (revised from $444.4 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This revort presents advance information on two kev business indicators: durable voods manufacturers’ shinments and orders, Revised and more detailed estimates nlus nondurable wands


Computers and Electronic
Products
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Computers and Electronic
Products
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
55000 $5000
48000 48000 rl
50000 | 50000
45000 45000 fi
42000 \ 42000 |
40000 40000
39000 \ 39000 \
36000 36000 Dw
33000 33000 | | 30000 7 30000
30000 30000 25000 25000
8838885555558 8888885555558
ee ee atic og gee zteane ga
fees 758 P2FR7ERB #2327268 22537368 8?
— = Shipments Average — — NewOrders Average
\
Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars. VS Ratios UO/S Ratios
65000 65000 || 4.5 5.0
4.0 45
60000 60000 4.0
3S
35
3.0
55000 \ 55000 3.0
25
\ 25
20
50000 50000 2.0
1s ed 1s
45000 45000 1.0 1.0
8888385555558 8283885555568
ape aug ga c eae ga 25 6S 4 $e bE R EEE
u 5 & &
f$25268 2 F353 25 &P 223268 #25 35 BEB
— — inventories Average — 1s o/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Se:
Monthiy Percent Change Monthly
Item
Feb Jan Dec Jan ; Dec - Nov - Feb Jan Feb
2002? | 2002' 2001 Feb? Jan’ Dec 20027 | 2002" | 2001
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments... 177,993] 183,857] 180,676] -3.2| +18 +0.7| 172,478} 160,706] 188,466] 8.5,
New Order: “| 179,402 176690] 174/498 +15 +13 +0.9] 176,787} 162,931] 185,827 4.9
Excluding transportation:
Shipments. 125,489] 128,381) 126,452 +185 +0.1] 120,236] 111,755} 137,445] -12.5
New Order: 124,120] 125,771] 125,492 +0.2 +0.5] 121/563] 114/343) 136,846] -11.2
Excluding defense:
Shipments. 175,661] 172,350 +19 +0.2| 165,390] 154,021] 182,168} 9.2
New Orders. 170,076| 167,651 +14 +0.8| 167,086] 155, 178,387 6.9
Primary metals:
Shipments. 10,844] 11,365] 10,901 +43 2.8] 10,972] 10,930] 12,502] -12.2
New Orders. 10,684] 11/023] 10,778 +23 0.4] 11/348] 11,269] 12/954] 12.4
Fabricated metai product
Shipments. 19,766] 20,209] 19,917 +185 0.9] 19,422] 18,507} 20,401 48
New Order: 191537] 19,862) 19,641 411 +0.8) 19494] 18/586] 20,076] 2.9
Machinery:
Shipments. 23,623) 23,463| 22,319 +51 -1.8] 22,508] 19,780] 24,656) 8.7
New Order: 22/156) 22/167) 22.474 1.4] -0.6] 21/645] 19/952] 25,254] -14.3
Computers and electronic products:
ipments. 32,978] 34,384] 34,003 +14 +2.3] 30,452] 28,294) 39,603| -23.1
New Orders 33/619] 34/444] 33/328 +33 $3.6] 31,978] 30,153] 38,173] -16.2
Computers and related products:
shipments. 7,946] 8,250] 8,130) +1 +0.9| 6,709) 6,328] 8,789] -23.7
New Order: 8,130] 8.386] 8,024 45 “2.2 7,184] 6,252] 9,174] -22-:0
Communications equipment:
Shipments....... 5,863] 5,841 5,997 +0.4] -2.6] +3.2 5,102 4,313] 7,050] -27.6
New Order: 5.937| 5,886] 5,484 +0.9 +73 0:8} 5.315 4:827 6503 -18.3
Semiconductors
Shipments. 5,865] 6,736] 5,908 +14.0 +01 5,699] 5,901 8,771] -35.0
New Order: 6,775 7.434] 6,127 #213] 415.2] 6,989) 7,181 7/990] -12.5
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and component:
‘Shipments. 9,368) 9,642) 9,925 -2.8] -2.9) +24 9,187 8,166] 11,227) -18.4
New Order: 91531 91031 91622 +55 6.1 3.2| 9,574] 7,980] 11,508] -16.8
Transportation equipment:
Shipments. 52,504| 55,476] 54,224) +23 +2.2] 52,242] 48,951] 51,021] +24
New Order 55,282| 50,919] 49,006 +3.9 +18 48.51 y981] +12.7
Motor vehicles and par
Shipments. 36,789 39,218] 37,206 45.4 +11] 37,601] 36,468] 36,240] +3.8
New Order: 36,783| 39,090] 37/118 +53 +10] 37/689] 36,876] 36,188] +4.
Aircraft and parts:
Shipments. 10,456] 10,438] 11,043 +0.2 -5.5| “2.5 9.714 7,860] 10,373 6.4
New Orders 7,708 7042] +41.0 +95 0:7 9.677] 8,005] 9,048) -+7.0
All other durable goods:
Shipments. 28,910] 29,318] 29,387 0.2| -0.1] 27,725] 26,078] 29,056] -4.6
New Order: . 28/593] 29/244] 29/649 -1.4] 0.4] 27/524) 26,403] 28/881 “47
Capital goods:?
Shipments. 65,773] 66,893] 67,033 -0.2| +2.3| 61,433] 54,994] 70,263 -12.6
New Orders. 65,823] 59/403] 61,770) 3.8 018} 62) 52.911| 68.547 85
Nondefense capital good!
Shipments. 59,370] 59,858] 59,635 -0.8 +0.4] +0.8] 55,373] 49,210] 64,736] -14.5
New Order: 57.321] 54,644] 55.817 +49 2.1 “if 84/370] 47/843} 63/268] -14.1
Defense capital goods:
‘Shipments. 6,403] 7,035 7,398 4.9) +164] 6,060 5,784] 5,527) +9.6
New Order: 8,508] 4,765 5,953 -20.0 43.9] 8/332 5.068] 5,279) +57.8

(NA) Not Available “Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and
are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

? Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is

tudes errors of coverage, response and nonteporting panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.
‘methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(00),
‘Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2000."



3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES
(Millions of Dollars)

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted '
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Feb Jan Dec Jan ; Dec - Nov - Feb Jan Feb Feb
20027 | 2002° 2001 Feb? Jan‘ Dec 20027 2002 2001 02/01
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Orders. 538,079] 536,670] 543,837 +03 -1.1) 546,253} 541,944] 595,194 8.2
Total Inventories. 278,731] 280,047] 282,718 -0.5 -1.0] 280,520] 278,429} 313/145] -10.4
Excluding transportation:
Unfilled Orders. 263,200} 264,569] 267,179 0.5) -0.4) 266,991! 265,664] 310,319] -14.0
Total Inventories 208,428] 206,808| 208/709 0.7 -1.8] 207,432] 205,972] 236,707} -12.4
Excluding defense:
Unfilled Order 386,171] 386,961] 392,546 -0.2 “1.4 -1.2) 391,744] 390,048} 453,895
Total Inventorie: 255,925] 257/338] 259,718 0.5 0.9 -1.6] 257/781] 255,980] 290,382
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders... 16,718] 16,878 17,220 -0.9) -2.0| -0.7| 17,302] 16,926} 19,954] -13.3
Total Inventories. 19,112] 19,356] 19,768 -1.3| “24 -1.3} 19,181} 19,526] 22/465] -14.6
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders 39,015] 39,244] 39,591 -0.6| -0.9 0.7) 38,931] 38,859] 42,902
Total inventories 32,017] 32,249] 32/541 0.7 0.9) “1.7 55] 32,080] 35,697
Machinery:
Unfilled Order: 55,227 56,694] 57,990 2.6] “2.2 +0.3} 56,171) 57,034] 65,017
Total Inventorie 47,854} 48,080] 48/560 0.5 -1.0) -1.0] 48,533] 47/828} 52/441
Computers and electronic product:
Unfilled Order: 125,809] 125,168] 125,108 +08 0.0 127,649] 126,123] 149,682} -14.7
Total Inventories. 48,354 48/863] 49/280 “1.0 -0.8| 48,720| 48,281] 61,795] -21.2
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders. 9,863] 9,679] 9,543 +19 +14 9.776 9,331] 10,223 4.4
Total Inventories. 7,213 7,419} 7,594 28 “2:3 7,434] 6] 9,855] -24.6
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders... 40,449] 40,375] 40,330 +0.2 +01 41,148] 40,935] 49,745] -17.3
Total Inventories. 8,226] 8,493) «8.577 3.1 1.0 8,293) 8,476] 13,372] -38.0
Semiconductors:
Unfilled Orders. 16,038} 15,128] 14,430 +6.0 +48 +15] 16,487) 15,197] 22,708 -27.4
Total Inventories. 7,20 7.108] = 7,343 +14 “3.2 1.2 7,300] 7,109} 670] -15.8
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders. 15,997] 15,834) 16,445 +1.0 3.7 1.8] 16,420] 16,003] 19,787] -17.0
Total Inventories. 14,450] 14/526] 14655 “0.5 0.9 “1.21 14.766] 14,450] 16,448] -10.2
Transportation equipmen
Unfilled Orders. 274,873] 272,101] 276,658 +1.0 -1.6] -1.9] 279,262] 276,280] 284,875 2.0
Total inventories 73,303] 73/233) “74/009 +04 1.0 +141) 73,088] 72/457] “76/438 4.4
Motor vehicles and parts
Unfilled Orders. 11,7571 11,763] 11,891 0.1 11 0.7] 12,434) 12,346] 13,746 9.5
Total Inventories. 19,434] 19,705] 20,012 1.4) 15 1.1] 19.414] 19/598] 22/318] -13.0
Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 187,951] 187,536] 190,266 +0.2 1.4 -2.11 189,591] 189,628] 195,414 -3.0
Total Inventories. 41,691) 41/546) 41,727, +03 -0.4] +18) 41,548} 40/847] 42/305, 1.8
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 10,434] 10,751] 10,825, -2.9| -0.7 +25 10,518] 10,719} 12,977] -18.9
Total Inventorie 43,641 43/734) 43/905 0.2 0.4] -1.4] 44,077] 43,807] 47/867 73
Capital goods:*
ntiled Orders 371,209] 371,153] 378,637] 0.0 2.0) -1.4) 376,924] 375,655] 407,344 75
Total inventorie: 137,361] 137/896] 138,953 -0.4] 0.8 -1.2] 137,806] 136,290] 152/781 9.7
Nondefense capital good
Unfilled Orders. 238,273] 240,322] 245,536 -0.9 221 -1.5] 241,407] 242,410] 283,089] -14.7
Total Inventories. 118,555] 119,240] 120,191 -0.6 0.8 1.8] 119,326} 117827) 134/182] -11.1
Defense capital good
Unfilled Orders. 132,936] 130,831] 133,101 +16 17 -1.1] 135,517) 133,245] 124,255] +9.1
Total Inventories. 18,806} 18,656] 18/762 +08 0.6 +1.0] 18,580] 18/463] 18,629] 0.3

See footnotes at end of Table 1