UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE «itis.

= _ WS BUREAU OF THE
= 2 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

“

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 April 26, 2000

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CBO0-73

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(00)-03

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
March 2000

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $5.5 billion or 2.6 percent to $215.2
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.0 percent February decrease.
Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.8 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 7.4 percent above the same period
a year ago; new orders for the first quarter are 2.2 percent above fourth quarter 1999.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, led by electronic components, had the largest increase, $4.0 billion or 9.7 percent
to $44.8 billion. This is the eighth increase in the last ten months. Transportation equipment increased $0.8 billion or 1.8
percent to $47.3 billion; an increase in motor vehicles and parts more than offset a decrease in shipbuilding and tanks.
Primary metals increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $15.9 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, down four of the
last five months, decreased $0.9 billion or 2.1 percent to $40.4 billion.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in March increased $3.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $209.7 billion, following a
1.4 percent February decrease. This is the ninth increase in the last eleven months. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.6 percent
above the same period a year ago; shipments for the first quarter are 2.0 percent above fourth quarter 1999.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 2.0 percent to $47.8 billion; an increase in motor vehicles
and parts more than offset a decrease in aircraft and parts. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $0.7 billion
or 1.8 percent io $38.6 billion. This is the fourth increase in the last five months. Industrial machinery and equipment
increased $0.7 billion or 1.7 percent to $40.9 billion. Primary metals, up nine of the last eleven months, increased $0.1
billion or 0.6 percent to $16.1 billion.

© UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in March increased $5.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $526.0
billion, following a 0.6 percent February increase. This is the ninth consecutive increase. Electronic and other electrical —
equipment had the largest increase, $6.2 billion or 7.1 percent to $94.0 billion, mostly due to electronic components. This is
the fifteenth increase in the last sixteen months and the largest since August 1997. Industrial machinery and equipment,
down for the first time since June 1999, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $83.5 billion. Transportation equipment,
down nineteen of the last twenty-three months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $229.3 billion, mostly due to railroad
equipment. Primary metals, down five consecutive months, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $31.6 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in March decreased $2.0 billion or 30.6 percent to $4.5
billion. Shipments, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $5.9 billion. Unfilled orders,
down for the first time since November 1999, decreased $1.4 billion or 1.5 percent to $93.5 billion.

¢ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in March increased $1.2 billion or 2.0 percent to
$58.6 billion. Shipments increased $0.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $57.5 billion. Unfilled orders, up four consecutive
months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $262.7 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.5
billion or 1.0 percent to $51.2 billion; shipments increased $1.5 billion or 2.9 peccent to $51.5 billion; and unfilled orders,
down for the first time since August 1999, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $119.1 billion.

¢ REVISED FEBRUARY DATA _ Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $370.6 billion (revised from $368.9 billion); new orders, $374.3 billion (revised from $372.0 billion); unfilled
orders, $546.3 billion (revised from $545.7 billion); and total inventories, $476.3 billion (revised from $476.1 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders, Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published May 3, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for April is scheduled for May 26, 2000 at 8:30
AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
lem Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Mar, Feb. Jan Feb: | Jan | Dec. Mar, Feb, Mar. ¥
2000' 2000 2000 | Mar? | Feb! Jan 20007 2000' 1999 | Mar.00/99
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 206,480 | 209,442 | +15 -14{ +14] 228,192 215,480 43.9
New orders: 209,791 | 213,982 | +26 20 -19 | 330/385 214181 +76
Unfilled orders 520,386 | 517/075 411 +06 504;906 4.5
Excluding defense :
Shipments 203,744 203,189 | +16 3] +16 208,307 +65
New orders. 210,706 207,170 337 19 “1.0 04,822 +10.0
Unfitled orders 432/475 422°730 | +16 +07] =10 406,056 +64
With unfilled orders :
Shipments 172,306 | 170,486 | 172,674 +11 13] =14} 187,377 | 167,67. 176,528 +6.
New orders 177872 | 173.997 | 177214 | +233 13 -26 | 189570 | 1701677 | 175,229 +82
Primary metals :
ipments . . 16,058 15,962 16,091 +0.6 - +21 16,911 16,424 15,242 | +1
New orders . 15,889, 15,810 16,065 +0.5 -16 +47 16,889 17,262 15,406 +9.6
Unfilled orders : 31,565 | 31,734 | 31,886 05 “ 0.1 32/989 | 33,011 30,755 +73
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments... . 40,923 | 40,257 | 41311 +17 26] +68] 48,372 | 38,808} 43,579 | +110
New orders - 40,416 | 41/300 | 42937 21 38] +109} 461878 | 40,66 | 44,134 +62
Unfilled orders’ | 83,460 | 83,967 | 82,924 06 +13] +20} 83,707 | 851201 TT OAR +87
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 38,580 | 37,892 | 38,035 +18 04] +48] 41,599] 36,629} 35,501 +172
New orders”! | me 44830 | 40850 | 37364 | 49.7 +93 | -100 | 453321 | 37;885 | 34:82 | +322
Unfilled orders | | 94,003 | 87,753 | 84.795, +71 435 08 | 92383 | 88.661 62/668 | +474
Transportation equipment :
Shipments... 2... 47,764 | 46,823 | 48,663 +2.0 38 29} $2,003 | 49,059 | 53,786 33
New orders 22022222225) 476r 46,435 | 51438 | +18 “9:7 76 | 31/800 | 48/578 04 24
Unfilled orders’ | : 229,345 | 229/848 | 230/236 02 02} +12 | 230;859 | 231/062 | 2461335 63
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments soe 63,444 65,120 x 72,428 | 60,009 | 69,310 +45
New orders’ | 63,117 70,162 88 19] 71459 | 61185 | 697816 +24
Unfilled orders | | 356,216 355,853 2 358,476 | 359/445 | 360,009 -04
Nondefense : .
Shipments 58,867 +04 7 66,118 | 54,060 } 62,137 +64
New orders 63,350 | +20, 4} 4 66,299 | 34.710 37 +97
Unfilled orders 261'508 1 263,082 | 262901 | 261,139
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments 31,495 +2. “2.1 +39} 39.683 | 47134] 52,867 | +129
New orders 31176 +10 66] +58] 38476 | 48276 | 331753 +88
Unfilled orders 9121 #06} +27] 1191464 | 120671 | 1712031 +76
oon IB 120
ipments 5,933 6,006 12 4.0 4.1 6,310 .
New orders : 43537 6,534 306 Ai] 231 5,160 9/359 “449
Unfilled orders 93,477 | 94/873 “15 +06 | +06 | 95/394 98,850 “33

(NA) Nox avaiable, * Revised

" Shinments apd new orders are the tals for the pied and are adjusted tr trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are a of the end the period and are et adjust for waing-day or ealendar-momthvaraions

Based on wdvance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders ate subject wo survey errar and revision, One major component of survey emir is nonsampling ester which inelades errs of coverage
Fema, aod minrepoting. | Since the survey pane is nx w probability sampie, estimates of sampling error cannit be calculated. Funher details on survey desig, methodology. und data lta fe contained in rw tent Fevemt snl
henehmark publication, Current Industral Repons: M3-1(96), “Manufacturers” Shipmens, Invemanes, and Ordets, 1987-1996."
sais, Cantal Gols Industries include Nondefense = ucinance and accesories, stam engines and urine, imermal combustion engines, consiniction mining and material handing equipment, metalworking. machinery, special ndusry
machinery. general indusial machinery, computer and office eyipmem, refrigeration, heating ant service wniustry machinery. clstral transmission and Uistbutinn ewuipmes, eleutical Instr epparaue, commneation sume
aft, missiles, and space vehicles, iveraft mises and spuce vebiele engines and ult. ships and unk components. rakoud equipment, ad seuch and eavgaton einen
DBetense captal gems inchade < omdnanee, communication eopment, ictal, misses, spate wetiles, aad pars. ships (nk ak tank cunponens. search ait avigaion einen

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1999- | Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1999-| Year ago Mar. | Mar. 1999-

Mar. 1999 | 1995-1999 | Feb. 2000 | Mar. 1999 | 1995-1999 | Feb. 2000] Mar. 1999] 1995-1999| Feb. 2000

Durable goods ...... 25 07 12 07 07 15 07 03 05

Primary metals a1 14 12 08 08 1a 18 07 10

Industtial machinery and equipment 05 03 27 06 07 20 12 05 09
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 1s os 16 14 07 39 07 04 12

‘Transportation equipment 61 17 56 ie 19 37 19 06 08

Nondefense capital goods 19 06 3.0 02 is 35 05 0s ur

Detense capital goods 02 o4 43 50 48 84 28 08 us

Note: The 1evi
for the months specifie

's are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to
1