U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Washington, DC 20233

OFFICIAL BUSINESS
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FIRST-CLASS MAIL

POSTAGE & FEES PA
U.S. Census Bureat
Permit No. G-58

Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)

Survey

<p em rma Rea eS aeene ne cea

eee

RELEASE DATES FOR 2000/2001

November 2001

Dec. 28, 2001

REPORT ADVANCE REPORT REGULAR REPORT —
COVERING (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
"November 2000 Jan. 4, 2001
i December 2000 “Jan. 26, 2001 Feb. 2, 2001
«| January 2001 Feb. 27, 2001 Mar. 6, 2001
February 2001 Mar. 27, 2001 Apr. 3, 2001
‘i “March 2001 Apr. 25, 2001 May 2, 2001
April 2001 May 25, 2001 @ 10:00 Jun. 5, 2001
| May 2001 Jun. 26, 2001 Jul, 3, 2001
| June 2001 “Jul, 26, 2001 Aug. 2, 2001
July 2001 Aug. 24, 2001 Aug. 31, 2001
| August 2001 Sep. 27, 2001 - Oct. 4, 2001
| September 2001 Oct. 25, 2001, Nov. 2, 2001
October 2001 __Nov. 29, 2001 Dec. 6, 2001 _



ECONOMICS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
= Asa A = BUREAU OF THE
2 See == & WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 December 22, 2000
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-00-215
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(00)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
November 2000

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $4.7 billion or 2.3 percent to
$210.9 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 6.5 percent October
decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 7.6 percent above the
same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $4.0 billion or 9.1 percent to $48.1 billion, due to aircraft and parts.
Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.7 billion or 4.5 percent to $40.0 billion, mostly due to electronic
components. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $43.9 billion; this is the first
increase since July. Primary metals, down four of the last five’ months, decreased $0.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $14.9

billion.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in November decreased $2.6 billion or 1.2 percent to $207.3 billion, following
a 2.0 percent October decrease. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.7 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $1.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $39.8 billion, mostly due to
electronic components. This is the largest decrease since April 1998. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $0.3
billion or 0.7 percent to $43.0 billion. Primary metals, down five consecutive months, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.4 percent
to $15.3 billion. Transportation equipment decreased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $45.5 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in November increased $3.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $562.2
billion, following a 0.7 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, led by aircraft and parts, had the largest
increase, $2.7 billion or 1.1 percent to $250.0 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, led by engines and turbines,
increased $0.8 billion or 0.9 percent to $93.1 billion; this is the seventeenth consecutive increase. Electronic and other
electrical equipment increased $0.3 billion or 0.3 percent to $99.8 billion. Primary metals, down twelve of the last thirteen
months, decreased $0.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $29.9 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in November increased $1.7 billion or 25.2 percent to $8.5
billion: Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $6.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased $2.2 billion or 2.0 percent
to $111.4 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in November increased $3.7 billion or 6.2 percent to
$63.1 billion. Shipments increased $0.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $61.9 billion. Unfilled orders, up five of the last six
months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $280.6 billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders, down four of the
last five months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $53.6 billion; shipments decreased $0.8 billion or 1.5 percent to
$53.3 billion; and unfilled orders, up fourteen of the last fifteen months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $131.1
billion.

@ REVISED OCTOBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $375.7 billion (revised from $377.7 billion); new orders, $371.5 billion (revised from $373.9 billion); unfilled
orders, $583.6 billion (revised from $584.0 billion); and total inventories, $492.0 billion (revised from $491.9 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published January 4, 2001 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled for


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted '
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Nov Oct Sep Oct - Sep - Aug - Nov Oct Nov Nov.
20007 | 2000° 2000 Nov ? Oct" Sep 20007 | 2000' 1999 | 00/99

207,340} 209,961] 214,165 2 2.0 +0.1] 203,849] 213,389] 203,877 0.0

, 206,214] 220,651 +2:3| 65 +2.2) 202,769} 211,595] 200,811] +1-0

562,231] 558,628] 562,375 +0.6| -0.7 +1.2] 556,380] 557,460} 496,913] +12.0

200,998] 203,731] 207,787 “1.3 -2.0) 0.0] 197,105} 207,177} 196,144] +0.5

2021411] 199/399] 214/614 +15 74 +2'9] 194/487] 205/550] 194,462] 0.0

Unfilled Order: 450,786] 449/373] 453,705 +023] -1.0 +1:5] 447/282] 449/900] 407/410] +9:8

With unfilled orders:
Shipment: 174,693] 176,282] 179,044] -0.9 1.5) -0.5] 172,385] 177,153] 168,838] +2.1
New Orders. 178,296] 172,535] 185,530 +3.3) 7.0 +21) 171/305] 175/353] 165,772|  +3.3
Primary metals:

‘Shipments. 15,265] 15,484) 15,731 4 1.6 14,786] 15,783
New Orders. 14,896] 15,212] 15,756) “24 3:5 +21] 14/353] 14,902
Unfilled Order: 29,942] 30,311] 30,583 4 0.9 +01] 28,442] 28,875

Industrial machinery and e

‘Shipment: 43,027 43,347 43, 378 -0.7 +0.2) -0.8 39,475 41,976
New Orders. E 43,380 43,31 +11 0.0) 4.9 40,980) 42,471
Unfilled Orders 93,077 92,245) 92, 33 +0.9 0.0} +0.1 93,372 91,867

Electronic and other
electrical equipment

Shipment 39,755| 40,763] 41,585 2.5 2.0] +1.0] 40,293] 40,190
New Orders 40,032| 38,305] 43/232 +45 11.4 +85] 36,853] 41,276
Unfilled Order 99,823} 99/546] 102,004 +0.3 -2.4] +1.6) 98/827] 102/267
Transportation equipment:
‘Shipments. 45,462 45,649 48,646 -0.4 6.2 +21 46,033, 48,497 49,461
New Orders 48,124] 44/111] 53,309 +91 7:3] +781 47,747| 45/909] 45,416]
Unfilled Order: 249/986] 247/324] 248/862 +14 -0.6 +1.3] 247/696] 245/982] 219,708)
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES *
Total:
Shipment 68,202] 67,620] 69,204 -2.3| .2] 65,455] 64,651] 61,022
New Orde 71,626] 66,199] 74,531 +8.2 112 +3:1| 68,799] 62,927] 59,192)
Unfilled Ord 392,069] 388,645] 390,066| +0.9| -0.4 +1.4| 389,834] 386,490] 340,687
Nondefense:
Shipment 61,860] 61,390] 62,826 +0: 0.0] 58,711] 58,439] 53,289
New Orders & , 68,494] +6.2 -13.3 +5.4) 60.517] 56,882] 52/843
Unfilled Order: 280,624] 279,390] 281,396 +0.4 -0.7 +2:1| 280,736] 278/930] 251,184
Excluding aircraft and part:
Shipments. 53,297| 54,096] 54,247 “15 0.3 +0.5] 49,922] 51,748] 46,0141
New Orders. 5 : 55,639 0:8 “28 +15] 50,803] 52,166] 47,168
Unfilled Orders. 131,055] 130,746] 130,777 +0.2 0.0 +11] 131,167] 130,286] 112/869
Defense:
Shipments. 6,342) 6,230] 6,378 +18 -2.3 +201 6,744] 6,212) — 7,733]
New Orde ‘ 815] 6.037) +252) 412.9 17.4) 8,282] 6,045] 6,349]
Unfilled Ord 111/445] 109,255] 108,670) +2.0 +05 -0.3] 109,098] 107.560] 89,503
(NA) Not Available ‘ Revised

' Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are
not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

? Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is

, response and nonreporting 5y panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.
‘on survey d thodology. and data limitations are contained in our most recent anual benchmark publication, Current Industral Reports: M3-1197),
‘“Manutacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1997.

Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance ,gteam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling
working machinery, special industry machinery, Machinery, computer and office equipment, refrig heating and service industry machinery,

ion and distribution equipment, electrical indus 1n equipment, compet issles, ond space vehicles, avcratt misses, and

‘space vehicle engines and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.
Defense Capital Goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on Seasonally Adjusted Data)

Shipments. New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago] Nov.| Nov. 1999-[ Year ago] Nov.| Nov. 1999-[ Year ago] Nov.] Nov. 1999-
Nov. 1999] 1995-1999} Oct. 2000] Nov. 1999] 1995-1999] Oct. 2000] Nov. 1999] 1995-1999] Oct. 2000)

Durable Goods.
Primary metals.
Industrial machinery and equipment.
Electronic and other

electrical equipment.
Transportation equipment.

Nondefense capital goods.
Defense capital goods...

20 99 990
Se OG Row



Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

230 230
New Orders
220 Shipments ----4220
210 210
200 200
190 190
180 1 1 L i 1 = i 1 1 il L L 1 180
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1998 - Nov. 2000
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

67 67

New Orders

62} Shipments | -..--.--------.--------- = =- <== => 462

A pe eee eee ee eee +57

52 -- / --- 2-2 Te ee eee eee eee eee eee ------ -| 52

47 L it L L 1 1 it a L 1. 1 i 1 47
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1998 - Nov. 2000

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.