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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1998 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS '

SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES,

AND ORDERS

Advance Report
Report Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time)

Regular Report
Release Dates
(10:00 a.m. release time)

November 1997
December 1997
January 1998
February 1998
March 1998
April 1998
May 1998

June 1998
duly 1998
August 1998
September 1998
October 1998

November 1998

Thur., May 28 (10 A.M.)

Wed., July 29

24 (10 A.M.)

24 (10 A.M.)

23 (10 A.M.)

Tues,

Thur.,
Thur., Mar.
Thur., Apr.
Wed.,

Thur.,
Thur., July
Thur., Aug.

Wed.

Fri.

Wed.

Fri.

Wed.

1998

1999


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | tks
ADMINISTRATION
a
BUREAU OF THE
mS EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 January 28, 1998
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB9B-18
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(97)-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
jecember 1997
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $11.9 billion or 6.1 percent to $183.6
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 5.1 percent November increase and is
the second decline in the last three months and the fourth this year. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent, the
first increase since September. New orders for 1997 are 7.1 percent above .

Transportation equipment, down for the first month since September, had the largest decrease, $12.5 billion or 22.7 percent to
$42.5 billion; a large decline in aircraft and parts was partially offset by increases in shipbuilding and tanks and motor vehicles and
parts. This follows a 21.8 percent November increase. Primary metals decreased $0.5 billion or 3.1 percent to $15.4 billion,
following a 1.9 percent November increase. This is the second decrease in the last three months and the fourth this year.
Instruments and related products, down for the first month since August, also decreased. Industrial machinery and equipment, up
for the first month since September, increased $0.7 billion or 2.1 percent to $34.8 billion. This follows a 1.3 percent November
decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the second consecutive month, increased $0.4 billion or 1.3 percent to
$30.6 billion. This follows a 0.4 percent November increase.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in December, up for the first month since September, increased $2.8 billion or 1.5
percent to $185.6 billion. This follows a 0.4 percent November decrease and is the eighth increase this year. Shipments for 1997
are 7.7 percent above 1996.

Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the first month since September, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 3.9 percent to
$35.3 billion. This follows a 2.2 percent November decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, also up for the first
month since September, increased $0.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $30.7 billion. This follows a 0.3 percent November decrease.
Transportation equipment increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $43.9 billion, as an increase in motor vehicles and parts more
than offset a decrease in aircraft and parts. This follows a 1.6 percent November increase and is the third increase in the last four
months. Primary metals, down four of the last five months, decreased 0.3 percent to $15.3 billion, following a 1.2 percent
November decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in December decreased $2.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $514.9 billion.
This follows a 2.5 percent November increase and is the first decline since July. Transportation equipment, down for the first
month since September, declined $1.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $260.6 billion, as a large decline in aircraft and parts more than
offset increases led by shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 4.4 percent November increase. Industrial machinery and
equipment, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $73.4 billion, following a 0.2 percent
November increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.2
percent to $55.7 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent November increase. Primary metals, up for the twelfth consecutive month,
increased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $34.2 billion, following a 1.7 percent November increase.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE_New orders in December, up three of the last four months, increased $0.4
billion or 6.0 percent to $6.4 billion, following a 27.1 percent November increase. Shipments, down for the first month since
August, decreased $0.7 billion or 10.0 percent to $6.2 billion, following a 6.7 percent November increase. Unfilled orders, up for
the first month since last December, increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $103.6 billion, following a 0.9 percent November
decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in December, down for the first month since April, decreased
$13.2 billion or 22.5 percent to $45.6 billion, following a 17.7 percent November increase. Shipments, up for the first month

since September, increased $1.5 billion or 3.2 percent to $48.4 billion. This follows a 0.4 percent November decrease. Unfilled
orders, down for the first month since July, decreased $2.9 billion or 1.1 percent to $264.4 billion, following a 4.6 percent
November increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $40.8 billion, the first
increase since September; shipments increased $1.3 billion or 3.2 percent to $41.3 billion, the first increase since September; and
unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $101.5 billion, the first decline since June.

@ REVISED NOVEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$332.3 billion (revised from $333.1 billion); new orders, $345.1 billion (unrevised from $345.1 billion); unfilled orders, $543.3
billion (revised from $542.5 billion); and total inventories, $454.0 billion (revised from $453.9 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published February 5, 1998. The advance report on durable goods for January is scheduled for February 26, 1998 (at 8:30 A.M.).
See back page for 1998 Release Dates. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Dee, Noy. Oct. | Nov. Sept.- Dec, Noy. Dec,
1997 1997 1997 | Dec? ct. 1997; 1997" 1996 | Dec.97/96
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments ... 185,579 182,797 183,60: +15 0.4 10 186,670 182,166 170,766 +93
New orders’: 183,613 | 195,518 | 186,028 6.1 +511 -0.1 | 184035 | 193,121 | 171420 474
Unfilled orders 514,922 | 516,888 | 504,167 04 425] +05 | 510,277 | 512,912 | 487,574 447
Exgluding defense :
Shipments. 179,344 175,871 177,111 +2.0 0.7 “12 179,586 175,039 163,344 +9.9
New orders 177244 | 189,512 | 181,303 “65 +45] +03 | 174503 | 186,882 | 159,474 +94
Untitled ord 411,340 413,440 399,799 05 +34 +11 406,551 411,634 375,896 +82
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. : 152,014 | 150,226 | 150,366 +12 -0.1 12] 157,493 | 149,851 4,239 +92
New orders 150,048 | 162947 | 152,792 +7 +66 01 | 154858 | 160,806 | 144,893 +69
Primary metals :
shipments 15,303 15,343 15,523 03 12 03 14,128 15,061 13,599 +39
New orders 15/431 15°96 15,633 “3.1 +19 6.4 15,018 15,395 14318 +49
Unfilled orders 34/243 34115 | 33,532 +04 +17] +03] 33,353 32463 28438 +173
Industrial machinery and equipment:
hipm : 35,292 33,982 34,755 all 38,277 32,345 35,342 48.3
New orders 34/834 34134 34/502 21 13 22] 37:15 33,151 34,134 +89
Unfilled orders’: 73,370 | 73,828 73,676 -( 02 73,369 | 74,487 72,164 +17
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 30,717 30,150 | 30,242 +19 03 25 33,987 31,153 30,592 +d
orders, . 30,626 30,247 30,132 +13 +0.4 42 31,582 29,946 25,457 424.1
Untilied orders 55,681 55.772 55,675 02 +02 0.2 53,654 | 56,059 | 47,862 +121
‘Transportation equipment :
Shipmet 4339 | 43.888 | 43.177 +01 +16 2] 42934 | 44.468 38,488 +116
New orders . 421484 14,993 45,142, 22.7 421.8 +6.7 43,221 43,563 0.8
Unfilled orders . 260,586 288 041 | 250936 0.6 +44) +08 | 260,255 238% 368 255,735 +18
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments . 34,682 53,893 53,659 +15 +0.4 “18 64,682 52,655 59,724
New orders’ - 31,928 | 64.776 $4655 | -19B | +185] +11 63,467 | 63,895 62,651 +13
Unfilled orders . 368,030 370,784 359,901 07 +3.0 +03 367,654 368,869 361,201
Nondefense :
Shipments 48,447 | 46,967 | 47,168 $3.2 0.4 327 $7,598 | 45,528 52,302 +10.1
New orders” ° 45,559 58,770 | 49930 | -225 | 417.7 | +27 53,935 57,656 | _50,705 +64
Unfilled orders 264,448 | 267/336 | 255,533 “Hi +46] +11 | 263,928 | 267,501 | 249,523 +58
Exgluding aircraft and parts
Shipments - 1,315 40,030 | 40,706 43.2 13] 48,050] 38,764 44,092
40°01 40,540 | 41,618 +06 2.6 22 | 46,761 39/599 | 41,370 +13.0
Uniled orders" 101,464 | 101/978 | 101,468 0.5 +05] +09 ; 1025233 93,775
Defense :
Shipments . 6,235 6,926 6,491 10.0 +67 +53 7,084 7,127 7422
6,369 6,006 4,725 +6.0 +271 +133 9,532 6,239 11,946
Daned ‘orders 1037582 103,448 104;368 40.1 09 -17 103,726 101,278 111,678

(NA) Not available, * Revised.

" Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-momth variations; unfiled orders are a8 ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variation’

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which inchides errors of coverage
response and nonreporing, "Since the survey panel is ot apcobabiliy. sample, estimate of sampling erorcannoc be calcuatod. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data imitations ar¢ contained in our most recent an:
‘ewhmack publication, Curent Industria Reports; M3-I(06), "Manufacturers" Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996."

The Caria Gods Insti incote Nondefete; dane and meer eam ergs an utes, imal combustion ene, sors mising and atriltanding equipment, metavorking machinery. sil nds

py, Beneral industrial % and offi frigraton, Beating and servicio ma and ‘apparans,
Somplae te ‘misses, and space Veices,aicaftmisies, and space yeticle engi: anf pat sips and ‘and search and na
Defense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, Th para che tris an 0k tempers search and nvigason ue

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Dec. | Dee. 1956-| Year ago Dec. ] Dec. 1996-] Year ago Des. [ Dec. 1996-

Dec. 1996 | 1992-1996 | Nov. 1997] Dec. 1996} 1992-1996 | Nov. 1997] Dec. 1996] 1992-1996 | Nov. 1997

Durable goods . 01 04 03 01 06 04 00 02 02

Primary metals 04 0.3 27 12 08 14 0.6 0.4

Industrial machinery and equipment’. 08 ry 6 0.6 0.6 07 0.6 0.2 04 02
Electronio and other

electrical equipment ...... 14 06 06 16 Li rm 01 02 06

‘Transportation equipment .. . 0.2 10 0.5 09 3.1 14 Ol 04 0.2

Nondefense ci ia oods 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 13 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.2

Defense capital 2.1 18 1.0 33 10.0 44 0.1 0.5 0.2

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

205 205
New Orders
195 F- - - - rr rt ee etre erred Shipments |-] 195
185 185
175 175
165 165
155 L L L L L i 1 L L 1 L 1 1 155
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1995 - Dec. 1997
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

59 59

New Orders
54 | Shipments | - --------------------------------- 454

39 Lu i n 1 n n L n L L L 1 LJ 39

Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
Dec. 1995 - Dec. 1997

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.