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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1994 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report Regular Report

Report Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1993 Thur., Jan. 27 Thurs., Feb. 3
January 1994 Thur., Feb. 24 Thurs., Mar. 3
February 1994 Wed., Mar. 23 Wed., Mar. 30
March 1994 Wed., Apr. 27 Wed., May 4
April 1994 Wed., May 25 Thurs., June 2
May 1994 Thur., June 23 Thur., June 30
June 1994 Wed., July 27 Wed., Aug. 3
July 1994 Wed., Aug. 24 Wed., Aug. 31
August 1994 Wed., Sept. 28 Wed., Oct. 5
September 1994 Wed., Oct. 26 Wed., Nov. 2
October 1994 Wed., Nov. 23 Fri., Dec. 2
November 1994 Fri., Dec. 23 Thur., Jan 5, 1995

The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders press
release can be faxed to you on the day of issue at a cost of $120
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to this service, or would like more information, please call
Sandy Sollinger at (301) 763-2604.


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | wit.
N =—_=WS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mee CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth February 24, 1994
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB94-37

M3-1(94)-01

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
January 1994
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $5.3 billion or 3.7 percent to $147.9 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.1 percent increase in December and is the
sixth monthly increase in a row, the longest string of consecutive monthly increases since February to July 1987.

Transportation equipment, up for the fourth consecutive month, had the largest increase, up $5.0 billion or 13.9
percent to $40.8 billion, due to aircraft and parts. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders increased $0.3 billion or
0.3 percent, the eighth consecutive monthly increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment increased $1.4 billion or 6.5
percent to $22.1 billion, with increases in all industry categories except communications equipment. Industrial machinery and
equipment decreased $0.7 billion or 2.6 percent to $26.2 billion, the first decline since June 1993.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in January decreased $0.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $145.7 billion, the first decrease since
July 1993. Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest decrease, down $0.8 billion or 2.9 percent to $25.6 billion.
Primary metals decreased $0.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $11.7 billion. Transportation equipment, up for the sixth consecutive
month, had the largest increase, up $1.1 billion or 2.8 percent to $39.5 billion, due to motor vehicles and parts and aircraft
and parts. Excluding transportation equipment, shipments declined $1.7 billion or 1.6 percent.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in January increased $2.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $422.4 billion, the first increase
since February 1993. Transportation equipment, up for the first time since April 1992, had the largest increase, up $1.3 billion
or 0.6 percent to $214.7 billion, due to aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment, up for the seventh consecutive
month, increased $0.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $53.8 billion. Electronic and other clectrical equipment increased $1.1 billion
or 2.5 percent to $46.3 billion, primarily due to electronic components. Instruments and related products had a large decrease.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were up $1.4 billion or 25.3 percent to $6.7 billion, due to aircraft and parts. This follows a
revised 4.1 percent increase in December and is the largest increase since October 1992. Due to aircraft and parts, shipments
increased $0.7 billion or 10.6 percent to $7.4 billion, following a 5.1 percent decrease in December. Unfilled orders, down for
twelve consecutive months and twenty-four of the last twenty-five months, decreased $0.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $115.8 billion,
with decreases in all industry categories except aircraft and parts. This is the lowest level since October 1983.

Nondefense - New orders increased $2.1 billion or 5.9 percent to $37.2 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts.
This follows a 0.7 percent increase in December and is the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Shipments were down $1.4
billion or 3.8 percent to $35.6 billion, following a 4.7 percent increase in December. Unfilled orders increased $1.6 billion or
0.8 percent to $199.1 billion, the first increase since June 1993. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $2.2 billion
or 6.7 percent, the first decrease since May 1993; shipments decreased $1.2 billion or 3.8 percent, the first decrease since April
1993; and unfilled orders increased $0.6 billion or 0.8 percent, the eighth consecutive monthly increase.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1994 RELEASE DATES)

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 3, 1994. ‘The advance report on durable goods for February is scheduled for
March 23, 1994. ‘This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870)
and through the Census Bureau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog
Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). ‘The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-763-2074) can provide



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jan, Dec. Nov. | Dec. | Nov] Oct- Jan, Dec. Jan,
1994+ 1993" 1993 | Jan? | Dec | Nov. 1994 1993 1993 | Jan.94/93
DURABLE GOODS
Total :
Shipments . 145,681 | 146,319 | 142,665 0.4 433] 128,662] 14su16] 114272] +126
New orders’ | 147871 | 142569 | 1395675 | 43.7} 421] +22] 135106 | 142'260 | 118218 | +143
Unfilled orders 422429 | 420,239 | 423,990 | +0:5 ~ “07 3044 | 4175600 | 454/071 66
Excluding defense :
Shipments. . 139,657 | 135,642 | -1.0 43.9 | 122,752 | 136,832 | 108.285 | +134
New orders 137187 | 134503] +429] +20) +24] 129334] 134116 | 110733 | +168
Unfilled orders’ : 3037810 | 306281 | +09 + -0.4 | 307/044 | 300/462 | 322,793 49
With unfilled orders:
Shi 114,581 | 115,447 | 112,955 08] 422] +29] 100,608] 118,624] 90,526] +111
Ree trders ” 116771 | 111;697 | 109965 | +45] 416} +16 | 107052] 115,768 | 947472 | +13:3
Primary metals
Shipments 1718] 12,019 | 11,851 25| +14] 4441 11122] 10,987] 10,809 429
: 11996 | 12021 | 14g] 02] tis} 44 | 12343] 11496 | 12/637 23
Untied orders’ 22,678 | 22'400 | 223398 | +12 00 00 | 22;761 | 21540 | 22,504 411
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 25,574 | 26,333 | 25,685 +55] 21,984] 29,048 | 19,184] +146
New orders 26.169 | 26.865 | 26673 26| +07) +66 3'557 | 29,486 | 20.233 | +164
Unfilled orders’: | 53,758 | 53,163 23631 + +19 | 543551 | 52,978] 51,168 +66
Electronic and other
electrical equipment
Shipments... . . veceeeee] 20,954] 21,047] 20474] -04] 428] 43.0 | 18389] 22,092 | 15,422 | +19.2
New orders | ||! oon 22061 | 20,705 | 19919 | +65] 439) -74} 20/405) 21.233 | 17178 | | H188
Unfilled orders: 46,285 | 45,178 | 451520 | +25 8] +1 46,453 | 447437 | 43/843 +6.0
Transportation equipment : :
Shipments . 3.400 | 38432 | 3675 | 28] i4s| +13 | 34.808] 36.954 | 30.297 | +152
New orders 40803 | 35809 | 34449 | +139] 439] 45:1 | 36847] 341674 | 27,747] +328
Untitled orders’ | 214,680 | 213/376 | 216,000 | +06 12] -L | 2157503 | 213;464 | 243366 “114
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments . . 42,969] 43,666 | 42,350} -16] 431] 425] 35,664] 51,398] 32,238
New orders’ | 43912 | _404s8 | 40,050 | +85] +11] 45:0] 38041 | 49167 | 31-456 | +209
Unfilled orders ° 314/937 | 313,994 | 317173 | +03 10] 0:7 | 316847 | 314470 | 346,182 -
Nondefense :
Shipments 35,601 , 35327] 38 +48] 29,754] 43,114 | 26,251 | +133
New or 37.170 S106 | 34878 | 459] 407] +463 2/269 | 41/023 | 23,971 | 434.6
Untitled order 1991134 | 197565 | 199;464 | +08 -l 02 | 1997847 | 197332 | 21 -7.0
Exgluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments 30,135 | 31,334] 30,571 3g] +25] +6. 25535 | 35,917 | 21,926 | +165
New orders. °° 30,708 | 32°901 | 3104 |) -o.7 | 458] 43:7 | 27/054 | 37,292 | 231075 | 172
Unfilled orders’? 76,459 | 75,886 | 74319 | +08 +0. 77172 | 757653 | 71,409 481
Defense :
Shipments 7,368 6,662 7,023 | +106 “51 10 8,284 5987 -13
orders 67742 382 3172 | 4253) +411 3772 8144 85 229
Untued orders 1157803 | 116,429 | 1177709 | “05 “11 117000 | 11738 | 131858 2109

(NA) Not available, * Revised. _
* Shipments and new orders are the totals fo the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfiled orders are as ofthe end ofthe period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variation
Bae on abv ample, Eximas of manufac samen ann ae nc 1 ey aay a revo, Sieh suey pape ma ray samp cima of sam vray, cmt ae

Funber details on survey design, methodology, and data limitation are contained in our most recent annual i ‘Reports: M3-1(92), "Mi ‘and Orders: 1982-1992.
The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, imernal contin sages, cotton mining and material handing equpen, scone Imachioery, special ind
inery, general ry, computer and office . efgeraton eating and servic inhsty machi

complet: aircraft, missles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehic ‘parts, ships and talroal equpment an seach and tvignion

le engines and
ete capil goo hcude'TM acinace, comennicon cQUptOne, ara, IE, wee which, und pur er ai and a Conponag, seh and havipuion pas,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders
Industry Year ago Tan] Tan. 1993-| Year ago Tan | Jan. 1993-| Year ago Tan. | Jan. 1993-
Jan. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Dec. 1993 Jan. 1993 | 1989-1993 | Dec. 1993 Jan. 1993} 1989-1993 | Dec. 1993
Durable goods 09 06 03 05 08 03 0. ou 04
Primary metals. - | 01 07 04 05 ra 09 02 04
Industrial machinery 04 0.7 08 0.5 18 09 02 86 02
Electronic and other
electrical equipment . 08 06 0.7 Ll 23 10 0.1 0.5 03
Transportation equipment . 2.6 10 07 3.8 2.0 13 Ol 02 01
Nondefense capital goods 06 10 07 09 18 12 0.0 03 0.1
Defense capital goods | od 21 07 32 56 32 02 03 ol

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differeyoeS, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
160 160

New Orders
150 F- Shipments |-] 150
140 140
130 130
120 120
110 a L L 1 L 1 1 L i 1 i L 1 110
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov’ Jan
Jan. 1992 - Jan. 1994
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45

New Orders

4o------------------------------------

25

i n L n n i L n n L

Shipments {4 40

n n Ld 25

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov’ Jan
Jan. 1992 - Jan. 1994

Note: All Charts based on seasonally

adjusted current dollars.