UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | -s..
NN EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 eR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 March 24, 2000

For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy €B00'54

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(00)-02

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
February 2000

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $4.9 billion or 2.3 percent to $208.4
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.2 percent January decrease.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 6.6 percent above the same period
a year ago.

Transportation equipment, led by aircraft and parts, had the largest decrease, $4.5 billion or 8.7 percent to $47.1 billion.
This is the largest decrease since April 1999. Industrial machinery and ea ipment decreased $2.0 billion or 4.6 percent to
$40.6 billion. Primary metals decreased $0.4 billion or 2.4 percent to $15.7 billion. This is the largest decrease since
January 1999. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up seven of the last nine months, increased $2.4 billion or 6.4
percent to $39.7 billion.

SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in February decreased $3.9 billion or 1.8 percent to $205.7 billion, following
a 1.5 percent January increase. This is the first decrease since September 1999. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.9 percent
above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, led by motor vehicles and parts, had the largest decrease, $1.9 billion or 4.0 percent to $46.7
billion. Industrial machinery and equipment decreased $1.5 billion or 3.5 percent to $39.9 billion. This is the largest
decrease since December 1991. Pri: metals, down for the first time since October 1999, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.3
rcent to $15.9 billion. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first time since October 1999, decreased
0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $37.8 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in February increased $2.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $519.0
billion, following a 0.7 percent January increase. This is the eighth consecutive increase. Electronic and other electrical
equipment had the largest increase, $1.9 billion or 2.2 percent to $86.7 billion, mostly due to electronic components. This is
the fourteenth increase in the last fifteenth months. Industrial machinery and equipment, up eight consecutive months,
increased $0.8 billion or 0.9 percent to $83.3 billion. Transportation equipment, up three consecutive months, increased
$0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $230.9 billion, due to shipbuilding and tanks. Primary metals, down four consecutive months,
decreased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $31.6 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in February decreased 0.6 percent to $6.8 billion.
Shipments, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 4.5 percent to $6.0 billion. Unfilled orders, up three
consecutive months, increased $0.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $95.1 billion.

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in February decreased $6.0 billion or 9.4 percent to
$57.4 billion. This is the largest decrease since December 1997. Shipments decreased $1.8 billion or 3.1 percent to $57.1
billion. Unfilled orders, up three consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $261.9 billion. Excluding
aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $4.0 billion or 7.5 percent to $50.0 billion, the largest decrease since October 1998;
shipments decreased $1.5 billion or 2.9 percent to $49.7 billion, the largest decrease since January 1996; and unfilled
orders, up six consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $118.9 billion.

@ REVISED JANUARY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted January Figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $370.4 billion (revised from $371.7 billion); new orders, $373.9 billion (revised from $375.2 billion); unfilled
orders, $541.7 billion (revised from $541.8 billion); and total inventories, $472.4 billion (revised from 471.9 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published March 31, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for March is scheduled for April 26, 2000 at
8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

‘Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Feb, Jan, Dec. Jan; | Deo | Nov Feb, Jan, Feb.
2000° 2000" 1999 | Feb? Jan! | Dec. 2000: 20001 1999 | Feb.00/99
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 205,709 | 209,575 | 206,480 18 +1 +1.0 | 204,950 | 184,473 | 194,919 45.1
New orders : ve] 2081448 | 213344 | 218,167 23 22) +65 | 207676 | 198,218 | 193,524 473
Unfilled orders 519,043 | 516304 | 512/535 +05 40.7] 423 | 524,250 | 5217524 | 506,205 +36
Exguding defense :
. 199,724 | 203,307 | 199,959 + 417 199,023 | 179,389 | 188,165
Nee orders ft : 201681 | 206/537 | 209/304 24 13} +53 | 201-241 | 190,760 | 188869 +66
Unfilled orders 423,936 | 421979 | 418,749 5 +08 427,728 | 425;510 | 409,541
With unfilled orders :
Shipments... : 169,878 | 172.794 | 170,241 “L7 +15] +09 | 167,271 | 150,674 | 157,833 46.0
New orders fecessiis i] 172617 | 176563 | 181928 22 29) +76 | 169°99 164;419 | 156,438 48.7
Primary metals :
Shipments 15,885 16,089 15,763 13 e244] +12 16,332 15,333 14,635 +116
New orders aon 15,662 16,046 15/346 24 +46 “12 17/083 163356 16,011 +07
Unfilled orders’ - 31,646 | 31/869 | 31.912 07 “0.1 13] 32\895 | 32/144 | 30.591 +75
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 39,859 | 41315 | 38,698 3.5 -10 | 38,492 | 34,330 | 35,722
New orders) 2000. oa 40,627 | 42°578 | 38,716 -46 | +100 16 | 39357 | 36,659 | 36,232 +86
Unfilled orders. << ° 83329 | 82/561 81,298 +0.9 0.0 4/41 83547 | 76,463 +10.
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments een 37,824 | 38,011 36,281 -05 +48] +19] 36,758] 32.402 | 31,196 | +178
New orders...) pee 30:706 | 37333 | 41524 | 464] -10.1 | +55 | 37675 | 36123 | 30/336 | +242
Unfilled orders’: fests 86.670 | 8a;788 | 85.460 | 42.2 08 | +65 | 88325 | 87,408 | 63.887 +383
‘Transportation equipment :
Shipments. . sessees | 46,733 | 48,667 | 50,125 40 291 437 | 49088] 44,448 | 50,526 28
New orders”)! 2) 47142 | 51660 | 55,650 87 -72{ +239 | 49.210 | 49.813 | 47,632 +33
Unfilled orders 230,863 | 230.454 | 227.461 +02 +13] #25 | 231869 | 231-747 | 247'072 62
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
‘Total
ipments .. . . 63,040 | 65,143 | 63,108 32 432] 411 59,912 56,768 45.5
New orders pesessies | 68191 70,202 | _71'502 -86 18} +182 | 61,071 55446 | +101
Unfilled orders * 2 | : 357,021 | 355,870 | 350/811 403 +14 | 4255 | 359/546 359,503 0.0
Nondefense :
Shipments... . 57,055 | $8,875 | 36,587 - +40] 424] 53,985 | 47,963 50,014
New orders 2-222... 37424 | 63,395 | 62,639 “9.4 412] 415.2 | 3a) 53,741 50,791 +76
Unfilled orders ©2222. 261914 | 261/545 | 257,025 +01 418 | 424 | 263,024 | 2623373 | 262/839 +
Excluding aireraft and parts :
Shipments . 49.676 | $1,150 | 48,304 29 + 40.8 | 46,938 508} 41,929} +11
New orders... vo] 30,037 | 547065 | 51/294 75 +54] 454] 47581 45.681 43.539 493
Unfilled orders’: ! ! 2! 118,924 | 118'563 | 115,648 | +03 120,034 | 1193391 | 110,165 +90
Defense :
Shipments . 5,985 6,268 6,521 4S 39 8.9 5,927 5,084 6,754 2122
New orders 6.767 6,807 8.863 06 | 232] +455 6.435 7.458 4.655 +382
Unfilled orders : 95,107 94,325 93,786 +0.8 +06 426 96,522 96,014 96.664 0d

(NA) Not walla," Revived

* Shipments and new anders are the tals for the period and are adjested for trading-day and ealendar-month variations; unfilled orders areas of the end of the pried and are nut adjusted fr trading-day or ealendarsmonth variations

* Based v9 advance sample, Estimates of manufactures” shipments, inventories, and orders ute subject c survey errr and revision, ne major component of survey error is nensampl
response and moateporting. Since the survey panel chability sample, estimates of sa or cannot he calculated, Further detss on survey design, methodology, sand dita Tita
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports; M3-i(96), "Manufacturers" Shipmens, leventries, und Orders: 1987-1996,"

The Cupital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, stam engines and turbines, imernal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery. special industry
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, eating andl service ndustty machinery, elecrial transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communieation equipment
complete areraft, misiles, and space vehicles, airraft missiles, and space ‘ines and pats, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

Defense capital goods include: ordnance, communication eyuipment, missiles, space vehicles, apd parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

ee

vokained in apr mast recent annual

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1999-| Year ago Feb. | Feb. 1999-| Year ago Feb. ] Feb. 1999-

Feb. 1999 | 1995-1999 | _ Jan. 2000 |_Feb. 1999| 1995-1999 | Jan. 2000] Feb. 1999] 1995-1999 |_Jan. 2000.
Durable goods we 12 Os il Ld 0.6 14 03 02
Primary metals 24 06 12 OL 04 14 16 05
Industrial machinery and equipment 08 07 2.6 02 05 21 16 04

Electronic and other

electrical equipment 3A inl 19 18 1.0 36 1.0 0.6
‘Transportation equipment 25 12 si Us 18 48 0.0 03
Nondefense capital goods 23 10 28 13 12 25 05 03
Defense capital goods 0.9 0.6 41 54 é 5 16.9 21 0.8

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t0 si
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

225

215

205

195

185

175

New Orders

P| Shipments - - - - ------ 7-555 25552 rr rr ree ee

L n 1 L r i nl i m L L L 1

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Feb. 1998 - Feb. 2000

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

225

215

205

195

185

175

64

59

New Orders

| Shipments | ------------------------------- ~

44

L n n n 1 i n 1 1 n 4 n L

64

+59

54

449

44

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

Feb. 1998 - Feb. 2000

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.