UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | wits

~ EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 OR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 9:00 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 July 25, 1996
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB96-125
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(96)-6

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
June 1996
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $1.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $169.1 billion, the Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 4.2 percent May increase and is the second decrease in the last three
months. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased $0.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $127.2 billion, the first decrease since March. Year-to-
date new orders are 5.4 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, down two of the last three months, decreased $0.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $41.9 billion; a large decline in aircraft
and parts and motor vehicles and parts more than offset an increase in shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 14.9 percent May increase.
Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since March, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $31.3 billion, This follows
a 1.3 percent May increase. Primary metals, also down for the first month since March, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $15.4 billion,
following a 2.0 percent May increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the first month since March, increased $0.4 billion
or 1.6 percent to $26.2 billion, due to communication equipment. This follows a 1.4 percent May decrease.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in June decreased $1.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $165.7 billion, following a 1.7 percent May
increase. This is the first decrease since March. Year-to-date shipments are 3.5 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, down for the first month since March, had the largest decrease, $1.4 billion or 3.5 percent to $38.3 billion, mostly
due to aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts. This follows a 4.2 percent May increase. Primary metals decreased $0.5 billion or
3.1 percent to $14.6 billion. This follows a slight May decline and is the ninth decline in the last ten months. Electronic and other electrical
equipment increased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $26.8 billion. This is the second consecutive increase and the fourth in the last five months.
Industrial machinery and equipment increased $0.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $31.4 billion, following a 0.4 percent May increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in June increased $3.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $475.9 billion. This follows a
0.6 percent May increase and is the ninth increase in the last ten months.

Transportation equipment, up nine of the last ten months, had the largest increase, $3.6 billion or 1.5 percent to $240.8 billion, mostly due
to aircraft and parts and shipbuilding and tanks. This follows a 1.2 percent May increase. Primary metals, up eight of the last nine months,
increased $0.8 billion or 2.7 percent to $30.6 billion. This follows a 1.8 percent May increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment,
down seven of the last eight months, decreased $0.6 billion or 1.3 percent to $47.9 billion, following a 1.9 percent May decrease. Industrial
machinery and equipment, down for the first month since March, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $72.0 billion. This follows a 0.5
percent May increase.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June, up three of the last four months, increased $2.0 billion or 31.6 percent
to $8.4 billion. This follows a 5.8 percent May increase. Shipments, up six of the last seven months, increased $0.1 billion or 1.8 percent
to $6.1 billion, following a 1.3 percent May increase. Unfilled orders, up six of the last seven months, increased $2.3 billion or 2.2 percent
to $109.3 billion, following a 0.4 May increase.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June decreased $2.5 billion or 5.5 percent to $42.5 billion. This
follows an 11.1 percent May increase and is the second decrease in the last three months. Shipments, down two of the last three months,
decreased $0.4 billion or 1.0 percent to $42.3 billion. This follows a 2.6 percent May increase. Unfilled orders increased 0.2 billion or 0.1
percent to $242.4 billion, the ninth increase in the last ten months. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.5 billion or 1.3
ercent to $36.9 billion, the first increase since February; shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $0.7 billion or 1.9 percent to
37.4 billion, following a 0.1 percent May increase; and unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $97.4 billion, the fourth
consecutive monthly decline.

@ REVISED MAY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $311.2 billion; new
orders, $314.4 billion; unfilled orders, $496.1 billion; and total inventories, $434.6 billion.

NOTE: The data in this press release are consistent with the revised historical series released July 18, 1996. A report which includes these data from
1982 through 1995 is available on the internet, on STAT-USA, on diskettes, or from Census Bureau’s customer services for $10.00. Please call (301)
457-4100 to order the book, or (301) 457-1227 to order diskettes. Our internet address is: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/ www/m3adv.html

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 2, 1996. ‘The advance report on durable goods for July is scheduled for August 23, 1996. This report is available
‘on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's online information
service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted ‘Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jung May Apr | Mays | Apr: | Mar. Jung Ma June
196° 1996" 1996 | June? lay’ | Apr. 1996? 1998" 1995 | June96/95
DURABLE GOODS
Shipments 165,695 | 167,385 | 164,615 “1.0 +17] +26] 180,685 | 169,738 | 173,342 +42
New orders”: : +] 169073 | 170389 | 163,472 08 +42 -12 | 180,471 | 170/394 | 166,527 +84
Unfilled orders ° : +. | 475,887 | 472/509 | 469,505 +0.7 +06 -0.2 | 475,803 | 476.017 | 444,408 +71
Excluding defense : ;
Shipments : : 159,608 | 161,407 | 158,715 “ld +17] +29 | 174,120 | 163,879] 166,816 +44
New orders o sss. ] 160,670 | 164,002 | 157,434 2.0 +42] +03 | 172)162 | 1651550 | 161,609 +65
Unfilled orders ss. ] 366,578 | 365,516 | 362,921 +03 +07 0.4 | 366,264 | 368/222 | 340,364 +76
With unfilled orders :
Shipments... 134,538 | 135,847 | 133,587 10 +17] +12] 147,511 | 135,503 | 142,071 43.8
New orders 137916 | 138,851 | 132/444 07 +48 34 | 147297 | 136,159 | 135,256 +89
Primary metals :
Shipments 14,601 15,062 3.1 0.0 23 15,363 15,569 16,284 “5.7
New orders"... 15,402 15586 “12 +20] +67 15480 15/486 14.964 +34
Unfilled orders: 30,570 | 28769 27 +18 30,900 | 30,783 | 29,048 +64
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 31,376 31,283 31,168 40.4 7 35,785 30.921 33,786 45.9
New orders". || : ef 31291 31.626 | 31,225 1 +13] +16 | 35200 | 31155 34,076 433
Unfilled orders’ - - : 72{039 | 72124 | 717781 - +05 71.648 72,233 70,720 413
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments . ee] 26811 26,691 26,587 +04 +04 -0.5 | 29,086 | 25,958 27,306 46.5
New orders. | « aon 36,182 | 25,763 | 26.130] +16 14 “17 | 27380 | 24595 | 25,793 46.2
Unfilled orders’ 47854 | 48,483 | 49411 “13 - 0.9 | 47579 | 49285 | 48,227 13
Transportation equipment :
Shipments. -...+-] 38,266 | 39,662 | 38,080 +42] 484] 41,631 41,988 | 40,859 +19
New orders oo. - 41870 | 42/403 36.917 13] +149} 19] 44,678 | 43; 37,507 +190
Unfilled orders |. 2.) ! 240,849 | 237,245 34,504 +15 +12 “05 | 241120 | 238/073 | 211,728 +139
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 48,41 48,718 | 47,548 -0.6 $5,472 | 47,041 $3,996 427
New orders. 50,903 51382 | 46,525 09 | +104 36.916 | 48,137 50,932 +117
Unfilled orders: ° 351,748 | 349/257 | 346,593 +07 0.8 351,767 | 350,323 | 321,269 +95
Nondefense :
Shipments . vos] 429251 42740 | 41.648 -1.0 426 -12| 48,907 | 41,182 | 47,470 +30
New orders". : 42/500 | _ 44,99 40,487 5} +11} 131 48,607 | 43,293 | 46014 +56
Unfilled orders: 242/439 | 242% "36 | 240.009 | f0.1 409 “05 | 242'228 | 242/528 | 217,225 HIS
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . 37,433 36,731 36,684 40.1 15 | 43,038 | 35,447 | 40,965 +51
New orders . 36.903 | 36,428 | 36,562 +13 04 -1%6 | 42/033 | 35,000 | 41,362 +116
Unfilled orders’: 97371 97,901 98204 + 0.1 97,160 | 98,165 95:964 +12
Defense :
Shipments 6,087 5,978 5,900} +18 46 6,565 5,859 6,526 +06
New orders“! ||: 8,403 6,387 6.038 | +316 +58 | -292 8/309 43344 4918 +69.0
Unfilled orders: 109;309 | 106,993 | 106,584 422 +0:1 | 109,539 | 107,795 | 104,044 +53

(NA) Not available.“ Revised

“Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and ane not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations

is nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage
‘ad data Fimitations are contained in our most recent annie

* Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and oiders are subject to survey ertor and revision. “One major component of surve
response and nonreporing, Since the survey panel is not a probability. su te af sampling error cant he caleulated. Punher details on survey design, methodol
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Repons: M3-1(92), “Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1952."

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, infernal combustion engi
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, elevtneal
complete aireratt, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, shi

Defense capital goods ynunication equipment, aircraft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and

onstrvction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industr
mission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment
‘equipment, und search and navigation equipment

‘componenis, search and navigation equipment,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Tune | June 1995- | Year ago Tune | June 1995-[~ Year ago Tune | June 1995-

June 1995 ] 1991-1995 | May 1996] June 1995 | 1991-1995 | May 1996] June 1995] 1991-1995 | May 1996

Durable goods... 00... 01 ol 03 02 04 06 0.0 O 02

Primary metals. | : 08 05 o4 32 12 08 13 o4[- 04

Industrial machinery and equipment 0.0 03 07 13 08 MW 0% 03 03
Electronic. and other

electrical equipment... cence 02 02 04 08 18 08 03 07 03

‘Transportation equipment | _ 03 03 07 0. 02 17 o1 o4 03

Nondefense capital goods os 04 07 02 08 14 mm) 01 02

Defense capital goods 18 08 10 20 24 63 o o 04

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.