UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | .-22:.
EW SSS sissuronsc, seo | maser

CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth September 25, 1992
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB92-223
M3-1(92)-08

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
August 1992
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)
New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $119.7 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. The August decrease follows a 2.7 percent decrease in July
and 2.8 percent increase in June. Excluding defense, new orders were down $1.0 billion or 0.9 percent. New orders without
transportation equipment decreased $1.2 billion or 1.3 percent.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, down $0.7 billion or 4.0 percent to $17.4 billion,
primarily due to communications equipment. Stone, clay, and glass products also had a large decrease. Transportation
equipment had the largest increase, up $1.2 billion or 4.2 percent to $28.7 billion, with increases in all categories except
railroad and other transportation equipment. Fabricated metal products and instruments and related products also increased.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in August decreased $1.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $123.5 billion, following a 0.8 percent
decline in July. This is the third decrease in the last four months. Excluding defense, shipments were down $0.9 billion or 0.8
percent. Without transportation equipment, shipments decreased $1.5 billion or 1.6 percent. The largest decline was in
electronic and other electrical equipment, down 308 billion or 4.3 percent to $17.4 billion, primarily due to communications
equipment. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, up $0.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $31.7 billion, as an increase
in motor vehicles and parts more than offset a decline in aircraft and parts.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in August decreased $3.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $458.9 billion and are at the
lowest level since $456.0 billion in January 1989. This is the twelfth consecutive monthly decline. Excluding defense, unfilled
orders were down $2.7 billion or 0.8 percent. Without transportation equipment, led orders were down $0.7 billion or
0.4 percent. Transportation equipment had the largest decline, down $3.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $254.2 billion, with large
decreases in aircraft and parts and shipbuilding and tanks. Transportation equipment has declined in eleven of the last twelve
months and is at the lowest level since $251.8 billion in November 1989, Industrial machinery and equipment, down $0.4 billion
or 0.7 percent to $51.2 billion, has declined in ten of the last eleven months and is at the lowest level since $51.2 billion in
September 1987. Primary metals had the largest increase, up $0.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $21.3 billion.

Capital Goods Industries

New orders for nondefense capital goods in August decreased $1.1 billion or 3.7 percent to $28.2 billion. The August
decrease follows a 5.4 percent decrease in July. Shipments were down $0.7 billion or 2.1 percent to $31.1 billion, following
a 3.1 percent decrease in July. Unfilled orders, down $2.9 billion or 1.3 percent to $225.2 billion, have declined for five
consecutive months and are at the lowest level since $222.2 billion in February 1990., Excluding aircraft and parts, nondefense
new orders decreased 2.9 percent, shipments were down 2.4 percent, and unfilled orders declined 1.1 percent.

New orders for defense were up $0.9 billion or 16.7 percent to $6.6 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts. The
August increase follows a 21.5 percent decrease in July. Shipments decreased $0.4 billion or 5.2 percent to $7.7 billion,
following a 0.2 percent increase in July. Unfilled orders declined $1.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $131.8 billion. Unfilled orders
have declined in eleven of the last twelve months and are at the lowest level since $131.2 billion in June 1984.

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published October 2, 1992. The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled
for October 28, 1992. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-377-
3870) and throuch the Census Bureau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from


i)

Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
A Jul June J Mai Au Jul Au change
ui ul a june; ; .
i992 1992 1992 July! Tune 199; 199; 19 Aug.92/91
DURABLE GOODS
‘Votal :
Shipments. ae . 123,460 124,763 125,831 -1.0 08 +29 122,252 109,273 119,037, +27
New orders . 119,708 119,791 123,164 O01 2.7 +28 116,269 104,968 117,602 ll
Unfilled orders . . 458,947 462,699 467,671 0.8 ll 0.6 457,617 463,600 493,436 13
Exchudi defense :

‘Shipments rs 115,806 116,691 117,774 08 0.9 +2.9 114,795, 102,177 110,272 +41
New orders ..... nae 113,141 114,164 115,997 09 -16 +18 111,409 100,492 108,894 +23
Unfilled orders’. 2! <i] 3271097 | 329'762 | 332289] 08] 08] 015 | 328/009 | 331/395 | 345'881 52

With unfilled orders :
Shipments eee vee 100,739 102,811 103,553 2.0 0.7 +36 99,359 91,107 98,170 +12
New orders SEE] 96987 | “97839 | 100! 09] 30) +36] 93376 | — ei802 | 96,735 35

Pris tals :
Shipments... Levees 10934] 11383] 11,291 22] -10] +06] zs} 9401} 11930] = +09
New orders. || aon ‘| anna7} 303] '505 | 4] as] +35] 10°769] 10570] 101995 21
Untitled orders 21276 | 21063} 20343] 4100] +06} +70 x aiaia | 221338 37
Industrial chine: i it:

OT ent nery and equipment | 20,917] 21050] 21,622 06 26] +48 19,438 13219} 18,611 +44
New orders... 20548 | 20681] 217239 | 06] «= 26] $58] 19788 | 17796] sao] $37
Unfilled orders Lit} suisi]  51sso] 5110] 07} 07] 07 | stz08] — stlase | 54°745 65

Blectronic and other

een emene | 17358] 18,137] 17,293 43| +49] +08] 17234] 16162] 16,562 +41
New orders... an 17a31{ 18149] 777] 40 | $38] 423) 17190] 16258] isBI2| 88
Unfilled orders : 42028 | 41/955] 411943 | 0.2 oo] +04) 42126] a2'Tod fs 14

Trans eneae enS 31,710 31,543 32,835] +05 39] +30 30,933 24,780 30,615 +10
New orders. aan 28695 | 27530) 313301 | +42] 123) +19] 26°78} 201462} 30521 | “123.
Unfilled orders 220222222211] Sane] 257779] 261esf AZ] TS] 0S | 252'271 | 2561426 | 275265 84

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES®

Votal ipments ... 0... 38,79 | 39893) 40887) 2.7] 9-24] +64] 36,751 | 35,054] 37,470 “19

Me orders ¥ 34189) 38120) Oa} 8s] +49 1 365 29976 | 30418 | -13.9
Untied orders 222222] 35708 | 361076} s66074 J 13 a4{ “08 | 354;894 282 | 387/994 35
ye rcse 31,145 31,821 32,830 21 3.1 29,294 27,958 705 +21
Jupmemts oc sc ec ss sss 2e98 | 29268] 30953] 37] Sa] F106 | _26'503 500 710 44
Untilied orders 225;192 | 2281139 | 230,602 13 “11 25/286 | 2281077 | 240/439 63
Hxcluding aircraft and parts : 25578 | 26,203] 26,176 +49] 24215] 22,911 | 22,969 +54
Shipments oss 2402 | 25533] 25°85 +49) 23/595 , 2452} +31
New orders, = noes | T3764 | Tales 04 | 731082 | 73°70: TBS 34
Defense : 7,654 8,072 8,057 +28 7,437 7,096 8,765 “149
New orders, fon 6,567 5,627 a +224 4/860 4476 8:708 442
Dew orders, = 131850 | 1321937 | 135/382 07 | 129/608 | 132,205 | 147555] 123

(NA) Not available. Revised,
1 Sipments and new orders are {he totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unflled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted
{or trading-day or calendar-month variations.
Based on advance sample.

3 The Capital Goods industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment,
metalworking machinery, special industry machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical transmission and
distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment, complete aircraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines and parts, ships and
tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

Detense capital goods include : ordnance, communication equipment, aircratt, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment.

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago ‘Aug | Aug. 1991-| Year ago Aug | Aug 1991-] Year ago ‘Aug [Aug D91-

Aug. 1991 | 1987-1991 | July 1992 | Aug. 1991] 1987-1991 | July 1992] Aug. 1991| 1987-1991 | July 1992

Durable goods Te 00 Ot 03 03 02 07 OI Or O.1

Primary metals a : 02 03 03 09 07 08 05 03 03

Industrial machinery and equipment 05 Ll 07 09 13 1.0 05 02 02
Hieetronie and other

electrical equipment... 02 02 os 02 os 10 o.1 o4 03

Transportation equipment | : 03 08 05 ol 07 16 00 ou ol

Nondefense capital goods . 04 07 08 04 18 14 00 02 01

Defense capital goods. 07 10 12 12 13 59 00 01 02

Note : The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without
regard to sign, for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
150 150

New Orders
140 |- Shipments |-} 140
130 | + 130
120 120
110 + + 110
jioo 1 i L i 1 1 1 i 1 1 { | 100
Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
Aug. 1990 - Aug. 1992
NonDefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
45 45

New Orders

“or Shipments |-) 40

L L L 1 i 1 1

L 1

25
Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

Aug. 1990 - Aug. 1992

Feb

Apr

25
Jun = Aug

Note: All Charts based on seasonally

adjusted current dollars.