ECONOMICS
AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 November 23, 1999
For Questions - Frances Porter or Lee Wentela CB99-223

(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4832,

M3-1(99)-10

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
October 1999
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $2.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $200.9

billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.9 percent September decrease.
Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 2.6 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 6.9 percent above the same period
a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $5.9 billion or 15.3 percent to $32.3 billion. This is the
largest decrease since July 1997. Primary metals, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to
$15.3 billion. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, increased $1.6 billion or 3.4 percent to $48.3

billion, due to aircraft and parts. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $1.1 billion or 2.8 percent to $40.0 billion.

@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in October increased $1.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $203.3 billion, following a
1.9 percent September decrease. This is the fifth increase in the last six months. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.2 percent
above the same period a year ago.

Industrial machinery and equipment had the largest increase, $2.2 billion or 5.8 percent to $39.9 billion. This is the largest
increase since July 1987. Transportation equipment decreased $0.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $48.1 billion. Electronic and
other electrical equipment, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $34.9 billion. Primary
metals, down for the first time since April, decreased $0.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $15.2 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in October decreased $2.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $497.2
billion, following a 0.3 percent September increase. This is the first decrease since June. Electronic and other electrical
equipment, down for the first time since November 1998, had the largest decrease, $2.6 billion or 3.5 percent to $72.3
billion. This is the largest decrease since July 1997. Transportation equipment, up for the first time since January,
increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $226.5 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, up four consecutive months,
increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $80.9 billion. Primary metals, up nine consecutive months, increased $0.1 billion or
0.3 percent to $32.2 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in October increased $2.7 billion or 54.1 percent to $7.7
billion. This is the largest increase since November 1996. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 3.6 percent to $6.7 billion.
Unfilled orders increased $1.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $92.0 billion. This is the first increase since March.

®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in October decreased $0.5 billion or 0.9 percent to
$55.8 billion. Shipments increased $2.0 billion or 3.7 percent to $56.9 billion. This is the largest increase since September
1998. Unfilled orders, down seven of the last eight months, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $250.9 billion.
Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders decreased $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $48.9 billion; shipments increased $1.4
billion or 3.0 percent to $48.8 billion; and unfilled orders increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $111.7 billion.

@ REVISED SEPTEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted September figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $358.6 billion (revised from $358.9 billion); new orders, $359.9 billion (revised from $361.1 billion); unfilled
orders, $524.5 billion (revised from $525.5 billion); and total inventories, $465.5 billion (revised from $465.3 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published December 3, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for November is scheduled for December
23, 1999 at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Oct, Sept. Aug | Septs | Aug- | July Oct, Sept Oct
199% 1999 19 Oct? | Sept? | ‘Aug. 1999 1999 1998 | 0ct.99/98
DURABLE GOODS
Total
Shipments 203,316 | 201,814 | 205,709 40.7 -19] +12 | 208,050 14.5
New orders’ |! 200931 | 2031478 | 207.446 “13 19} +09 | 209/515 +61
Unfilled orders : 497168 | 4997553 | 497,889 “05 +03 40.4 | 497/043 05
Excluding defense :
Shipments 196,618 | 195,346 | 199,241 40.7 2.0 | +13 | 201,287 | 212,226 +48
New orders 193,193 | 198/458 | 202;398 27 19} +17 | 202°101 | 211148 +54
Unfilled orders’: |: 405.198 | 408,623 | 405°511 08 +08} +08 | 407,113 | 406,299 +04
With unfilled orders :
Shipments vee - | 168,031 | 165,679 | 168,889 | +14 -19| +14 | 169,936 | 180,934 +46
New orders = 165,646 | 167,343 | 170,626 -10 9] ua | i7tao1 | 177977 +6.6
Primary metals :
Shipments . 15,199 15,310 15,204 - +2.0 15,582 15,861 +43
New orders” |! 15/307 157418, 15,659 -0.7 -1'5 05 14944 15,206 +139
Unfilled orders : 32167 | 32,059 | 31,951 14 30,511 310149 +96
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . --| 39,892 | 37,710 | 38,691 +58 25 -19 | 38,764 | 41,593 | 35,476 +93
New orders 2. : : :-| 400035 | 38/942 | 39110 | +28 -0.4 28 | 39/591 42,757 | 34,785 +138
Unfilled orders 80,853 | 80,710 | 79478 +02 +16] 40.5} 807880 | 80,053 74,156 49.1
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments. - 34,929 | 35,313 Ll 0.1 34,923 | 40,428 | 32,427 47.7
: 32340 | 38204 “153 “11 +17] 36684 | 40/903 | 37,676 -2.6
Unfilled orders : |! i 72327 | 74916 35 0} 448] 75/964 | 74203 | 62,795 +210
‘Transportation eq
Shipments on -| 48,054] 48,591 50,980 “11 47 | 44 . 51,680 0
ew orders S| .48{291 46,719 | 49'000 | +3.4 47] 437 49,103 | 48,013 +68
Unfilled orders _ 226,549 | 226312 | 228,184 +0.1 08 - 224) 246,459
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
63,585 | 61,336 | 63,755 43.7 +L7 68,584 +48
W 01 : 63,490 | 61289 | 61,471 +36 0.1 67°966 +131
Unfilled orders | | 342;907 | 343,002 | 343,049 0.0 “0:7 340,705 4.
Nondefense :
Shipments - | 36887] $4,868 | 57,287 +3.7 42 61,742 45.9
New orders 35,752 | 36,269 | 36,423 -09 03 637003 +112
Unfilled orders 250,937 | 252/072 | 250,671 -0'5 +06 251,426 -46
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments 48,804 | 47,368 | 47,915 43.0 “ld “18 | 46,867 +9.0
New orders |. 12: 48910 | 49°08 | 47,770 -06 +30 20 | 47/539 +137
Unfilled orders’ | |! 1117697 | 111591 | 109,751 40.1 +17 “0.1 | 111617 +53
Defense :
Shipments sees 6,698 6,468 6,468 | 43.6 0.0 -18 6,763 6,842 34
New orders "738 5,020 5,048 | +54.1 06} -22.1 Tal4 963 +293
Unfilled orders 91970 | 901930 | 923378 Hd “1.6 “15 89,930 | 89,279 “43
(NA) Nok avalible.“ Revised
"Shipments and new orders are the totals forthe peri and are aused for trading day and clendur-monh variations; unfilled ocders are a ofthe end ofthe petal and are ot aus for talingday oF Galera varatnn

jased on advance sample. Estimates of manufuctorers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject 1 survey error and revision. One major compenent of survey error is nonsampling error, whieh includes errors of coverage,
response and nonrepertng. Since the survey panel is nota probability sample, estimates of sumpling error cannot be calculated. Further detail on survey design, methodology. and data limitations are contained in our most event annua
fenchmark publication, ‘Current Indusiial Reports: M3-1(96), “Manufacturers” Shipments. Inventories, und Orders. 1987-1996,"

“The Capital Goods Inustries include Nondefense * ondnance and accessories, steam engines and tuhines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special industry
machinery, Benetal industrial machinery. computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service istry machinery, elecneal transmission and distribution equipment, electrical dustrial apparatus, communication equipment
Complete aiteraft, missles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, und space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, rallraad equipment, and search and navigation equipment,

Defense capital goods include = ordnance, communication equipment, aiteratt, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, nis and tank components, seurch and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Oct. ] Oct. 1998-| Year ago Oct. | Oct. 1998-| Year ago Oct. | Oct. 1998-

Get. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Sept. 1999] Oct. 1998 | 1994-1998 | Sept_1999| Oct. 1998] 1994-1998 | Sept. 1999

Durable goods 0 02 10 04 04 08 Oo. 02 05

Primary metals 04 04 nM 03 09 0.7 ou 04 10

Industrial machinery and equipment 02 03 16 03 0.6 09 02 04 09
Electronic and other 7

electrical equipment 03 03 13 0s 10 16 05 0.5 09

Transportation equipment oa 03 36 1 09 18 01 ol 06

Nondefense capital goods 06 02 24 1.0 08 12 0.1 02 0.6

Defense capital goods 07 07 27 03 38 73 on 02 Ll

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard to sign,
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

225 225

New Orders
215F--------------------------------e Shipments 215
205

205

195 195

185

185

175 1 L it 1 1. i 1 1 i i i L i 175
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Oct. 1997 - Oct. 1999

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
64 64

New Orders

59 | Shipments

44 kn n n r L L L n L n i n Lt 44

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
Oct. 1997 - Oct. 1999

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.