Durable Goods Excluding

Transportation
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Durable Goods Excluding

Transportation
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars. Billions Of Dollars
155000 155000 160000 160000
155000 155000
150000 150000
MN 150000 150000
145000 145000
as \ 145000 145000
140000 \ 140000 | | 140000 a, 140000
135000 135000 \ Ne
\ 130000 v 130000
sore Nae aw
Nl 125000 4 125000
125000 Vv 125000 120000 y 120000
$8838388 855 3 35 5 $e38838 85555 5 5
ee bt oe eabt ag fg or a a a a a
622326868 223268 a223268 £25268
—  — Shipments Average — — New orders Average
\
Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars VS Ratios UO/S Ratios.
240000 240000 || 3.4 34
235000 235000
Ow 29 29
P0000 A \ #30000 eT
225000 +. 225000
y/ \ 24 24
220000 \ 220000
215000 \ 215000
\ 19 19
210000 210000 Cae on
205000 205000 |) 1.4 14
B888888 555555 88888855555 5
$2 5c 5G e4 be aE Gg $4: € oS § ee Et aE YG
o 265 3 ro 3
62235208 £23268 6223268 2232658
— — inventories — Average _—— 1S uo/s

Note: All charts

based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Durable Goods
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Durable Goods
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
210000 210000 250000 250000
205000 iN pm 205000 || 240000 n 240000
230000 230000
200000 ff V 200000 0 I
“KX 220000 220000
195000 195000 iV
190000 190000 7 AR
Vv yy 200000 -K—f ‘ 200000
185000 185000
\ 190000 190000
180000 {iv 180000 | | 80000 180000
175000 ¢ 175000 |) 170000 170000
170000 170000 160000 160000
sesegseegensnsgsssg eseseseeeren eee cs
eee ee o7 2 eee eee eee T ee eee Fe
$4 ee eee eee aso $e Eos ee EE SEY
é22526 8223266 éee2sz268 22326086
— — Shipments Average — = New Orders Average
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UO/S Ratios
315000 315000 47S
4.25 4.25
305000 305000 3.75 3.75
\ 3.25 3.25
295000 \ 295000
\ 275 2.75
2.25 2.25
285000 285000
175 17s
275000 275000 1.25 1.25
2888888555555 8838888555555
ee teog gage t age 4b te ob eo Ee aE
&é2¢2353 264 £23268 462232686 2 £32268
— == Inventories Average —— 1/S uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Nondefense Capital Goods
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars

75000 75000 || 85000 85000
72000 72000 || 80000 i 80000
DOD 75000 75000

69000 69000
\ 000 roo
65000 65000
60000 60000

60000 60000 || 5599 aN £ 55000

57000 57000 $0000 50000
2838888555555 2828888555555
gees ope gage eage ge@hs og gegagteuga

5 ro rt
afe¢sz268 22578 B séft2sz7268 $257 § B
— = Shipments Average — —= New Orders Average
Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billons Of Dollars VS Ratios UO/S Ratios
135000 135000 5 5.5
5.0 5.0
aN 45 45
130000 130000
4.0 4.0
35 35
3.0 3.0
125000 125000
25 25
2.0 a
—

120000 120000 Ls Ms
8883888555555 8883828 55555 5
$e ec eee eet ggg $256 ot $4 be gges
6f23268 F578 8 &6é2f#2526568 F255 FS B

— — _ ventories Average —— 15s vo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.



ECONOMICS

AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
BUREAU OF THE
WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 January 29, 2002
For Questions - Lee Weniela or Derrick Roy CB-02-16
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(01-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS! SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS.
DECEMBER 2001

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in December increased $3.4 billion or 2.0 percent to $176.4 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 6.0 percent November decrease. Excluding
transportation, new orders increased 1.4 percent. New orders for 2001 were 12.8 percent below 2000; new orders for the fourth
quarter were 1.4 percent above the third quarter.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.7 billion or 3.5 percent to $49.8 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts
increased $1.2 billion or 26.9 percent to $5.7 billion. Computers and electronic products, led by semiconductors, increased $1.1
billion or 3.5 percent to $33.4 billion.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in December increased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $180.5 billion. This follows a 0.4 percent
November decrease. Shipments for 2001 were 8.1 percent below 2000; shipments for the fourth quarter were 1.3 percent below the
third quarter.

Transportation equipment, up three consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 1.6 percent to $53.9 billion;
nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $0.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $8.4 billion. Computers and electronic products, up three
consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $33.8 billion. Machinery decreased $0.4 billion or 1.8 percent to
$22.4 billion. Primary metals, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.3 billion or 3.1 percent to $10.9 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for durable goods in December, down eleven of the last twelve months, decreased $4.0 billion or 0.7
percent to $545.9 billion. This follows a 1.2 percent November decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $4.1 billion or 1.5 percent to $277.8 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts
decreased $2.7 billion or 2.0 percent to $134.1 billion. Computers and electronic products, down thirteen consecutive months,
decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $125.5 billion. Machinery increased $0.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $58.2 billion.

@ INVENTORIES for durable goods in December, down eleven consecutive months, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.4 percent to
$284.7 billion. Computers and electronic products, down ten consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $1.3 billion or 2.5
percent to $49.8 billion. Transportation equipment increased $1.1 billion or 1.5 percent to $74.4 billion; nondefense aircraft and
parts decreased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $31.0 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in December increased $0.6 billion or 10.8 percent to $6.4 billion.
Shipments increased $1.0 billion or 16.0 percent to $7.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $133.6
billion. Inventories increased $0.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $18.8 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in December increased $0.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $57.2
billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $59.6 billion. Unfilled orders, down twelve consecutive months,
decreased $2.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $246.8 billion. Inventories, down eleven consecutive months, decreased $1.2 billion or 1.0
percent to $121.0 billion.

@ REVISED NOVEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all manufacturing industries are:
shipments, $325.5 billion (revised from $327.0 billion); new orders, $319.0 billion ( revised from $321.7 billion); unfilled orders,
$549.9 billion ( revised from $551.2 billion); and total inventories, $452.0 billion ( revised from $453.1 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This renort nresents advance information on two kev business indicators: durable eoods manufacturers’ shiments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable eoods


Computers and Electronic (— Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars, Billions Of Dollars.
55000 55000
48000 48000
an" 50000 ral 50000
45000 45000 fi
VAIN won won
42000 Fs, 42000
\ v
40000 40000
39000 \ 39000 \
\ 35000 \ 35000
36000 \ 36000 Qe
33000 \ 33000 || 30000 t 30000
30000 30000 25000 25000
888888 ess55e 888388555565
SPSS23 52 228 PEE S223 88 F538 8
— = Shipments Average — o—= New Orders Average
a
\O
Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios ‘UO /S Ratios
65000 65000 |} 4.5 5.0
40 45
60000 ew 60000 as 4.0
35
3.0
55000 55000 3.0
25
25
2.0
50000 50000 2.0
Ls — Ls
45000 45000 1.0 1.0
RESS8 88s 55555 SSF ssssessas
SSeaseegse ge gt age gad oy a2 gs &é oea Ee
éf2s725 8 FRESE B 6825753 FRESE
— = Inventories Average _—— 1S uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted * __
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Dec Nov Oct Nov = Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec Dec
20017 | 2001'° 2001 Dec? Nov‘ Oct 20017 | 2001° 2000 | 01/00
Total:
180,470] 179,612) 180,243 +05 -0.4] +3.3] 181,208] 177,523] 201,776] -10.2
176,441] 173,050) 184,164 42.0 -6.0) +124! 182,000] 168,984] 209/067] -12.9
Excluding transportation
Shipments 126,539] 126,553] 128,377 0.0} 14 +2.1! 129,359} 123,754) 152,369] -15.1
New Orders 126,635] 124,921] 124,026 +14 +0.7 +28) 128,923} 120,934] 147°751]  -12.7
Excluding defense:
Shipments... 172,188] 172,206] 172,994 0.0) -0.5) +3.7| 171,501] 169,872] 193,711] -11.5
New Orders. 168,249] 166,488] 164/056 +17 +15 +4.7| 168,966] 162,462) 199,279] -15.2
Primary metals:
Shipment: 10,864] 11,207] 11,547] 3.1 -2.9) 424 9,540] 10,917] 11,087] -14.0
New Order 10,764] 10:817| 10,863 -0.5 0.4 224 9,748] 10,516] 11,362] -14.2
Fabricated metal products
shipments... 20,164) 20,131] 20,293) +0.2 -0.8) +2.0/ 18,529] 19,825] 19,437 47
New Orders. 19,781] 19,516] 19,734 +14 4 +2.2! 18,2011 19,037] 19,484] -6.6
22,393] 22,803] 23,543) 18 3.1 +4.5] 22,622) 21,406) 25,694 -12.0
22/934) 22/558] 22/163 +17 +18 0.4] 22,491] 21,178] 24674] 8.
33,806] 33,271) 33,168 +16) +03 +0.8] 41,346] 33,180) 56,110] -26.3
33,414] 32/282} 31/924 +35 4nd +89] 41/484) 31/433] 53,018] -21.8
Computers and related products:
Shipments... 8,117] 8,069] 7,918 +0.6| +19 +1.21 10,966] —7,427/ 14,888] -26.3
New Orders. 7.998] 8,214) 8,217 -2.6| 0.0) +18.7) 10,358] 7/952] 14\403) -28.1
Communications equipmer
Shipment 5,966] 5,850] 5,949 +2.0 17 -2.8] 8,301 5,666] 13,028} -36.3
New Order 5524, 5.575] 5.414 -0.9 +3.0/ +485] 8.490] 5,420] 12,380] 31.4
Semiconductors
Shipment: 5,843] 6,196 -0.9| -1.9} 6,577] 6,290] 11,313] -41.9
New Orders 5,05: 5.520] + 13.3} 16.7] 6,232] 4,890] 9/235] -32'5
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and component:
Shipment: 9,923] 9,700] 10,118 +23] “41 +3.3] 10,051 9,337} 11,700] -14.1
New Orders 922 ,944] 9,753 0.2 +2.0) +45] 9,892] 9,657] 11,590] -14.7
Transportation equipment:
Shipment: 53,931] 53,059] 51,866 +1.6] 42.3 +6.4} 51,849] 53,769] 49,407/ +4.9
New Orders. 49,806] 48,128] 60,138 +35 -20.0]  +39.0] 53,077] 48,050] 61.316] -13.4
Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipments... 36,897| 36,778] 36,122 +03 +18] 411.6] 31,704) 37,080] 31,376] +1.0
New Orders 36,813] 36,746] 35,762 40.2 +28] 411.3] 32/047] 37/150] 31/450] +19
Aircraft and par
Shipments. 11,118] 11,322] 10,573 1.8 47.1 -5.5| 13,867) 11,725] 12,636, +9.7
New Orders. 7.573] 7,080] 19,860, +68) 64.3] 220.1) 12,930] 6,482] 24/450) 47.1
All other durable good:
‘Shipment: 29,389) 29,708] 0.2 -0.9| +1.4{ 27,271] 29,089] 28,341 3.8
New Orders. 29,810} 29/589] 0.0} +0.7| +0.9{ 27/107] 29,113] 27/622] 1:3
Capital goods:
Gipments.. 66,999] 65,611] 66,393 +24 +14) 76,331] 63,495] 87,845,
New Orders 63,525] 62,175] 73,402, +22 +281) 77,747] 59,584} 95,797
Nondefense capi
Shipments 59,637/ 59,262] 59,956 +06 “1.2 +1.7| 67,926] 56,908] 80,855
New Orders: 57,165] 56,437] 54,251 +13 +4.0 +5.8] 66,217] 53,689] 87,593
Defense capital goods:
Shipments 7,362] 6,349] 6,437} + 16.0) 1.4 -0.9| 8,405] 6,587| 6,990] +20.2
New Orders. 6,360] 5.738 19,151] +108 -70.0] 218.4) 11/530} 5,895] 8/204) +405

(NA) Not Available * Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and
ions.

a not adjusted for wadingay of ealndar-month vat
2 Based on advance samp ers" shipments, inventories, and orders ar revision. One major component of survey error is
nse and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.
tions are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(00),
1000."

‘small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; constcuction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery: industrial
photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and tors; other power ission

‘computer storage devices: other computer peripheral equipment; communic 7
ents; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks;
nd medical equipment and supplies.

iavigat
aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furnit

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.


3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES

(Millions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted * __
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Dec Nov Oct Nov = Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec Dec
2001 ? 2001' 2001 Dec? Nov ‘ Oct 20017 | 2001° 2000 | 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Order 545,911] 549,940] 556,502 -0.7 1.2 +0.7| 540,798} 540,006] 592,014 8.7
Total Inventories 284,678] 285,851] 289,872 -0.4 “1.4 -0.7| 276,198] 287/307] 301,247] 8.3
Excluding transportatio
Unfilled Order 268,141] 268,045] 269,677, 0.0} 0.6] 263,926] 264,362| 308,482] -14.4
Total Inventories. 210,320) 212/615] 215/452, wa 13 204,543] 212/820] 226,838 3.8
Excluding defen:
Unfilled Order 394,217! 397,156] 402,874] 0.7 14 389,419) 391,954] 451,420] -13.7
Total Inventories 261,617) 264/086] 268,305, -0.9 -1'6| 284,020} 265,403] 279/074] —-3.0
Primary metals:
Unfilled Order 17,245} 17,348] 17,735 -0.6| -2.2 16,560] 16,352) 18,954] -12.6
Total Inventori 19,861} 20,008] 20/241 -0.7 “1.2 19,951] 19,972] 22,795] -12.5
Fabricated metal produ
Unfilled Orders 39,480] 39,853] 40,468 -0.9] 1.5 38,765] 39,093] 42,641 “9.1
Total Inventories. 32,868] 33/117] 331579 -0.8| “1.4 32,106] 32,7111 34,743 76
Machinery:
Unfilled Orders. 58,236] 57,695] 57,940) +0.9 0.4 2. 57,165] 57,296] 63,282, 9.7
Total Inventori 48,860] 49/036] 49/586 “0.4 14 1 47,267| 49/374] 49/931 5.3
Computers and electronic products:
Unfilled Orders 125,453] 125,845] 126,834 -0.3| 1.0] 124,621) 124,483] 151,052} -17.5
Total Inventories. 49,808] 51.087) 51.955 “25 -1.7| 47,658] 51/607] 57,265] -16.8
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Order: 9,531 9,649] 9,504 -1.2| +15 43.2 9,407} 10,015] 10,208) “7.8
Total Inventorie 7.594 7,882 8,166 3.7| “3.5 +0.2 6.889] 8,209} 8517/19.
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 40,409] 40,851] 41,126 14 1.3] 40,586} 40,397] 48,818] + -16.9
Total Inventories. 8,800 9,394] 9/346 6.3 4.4[ 8,466) 9,771] 12/469] -32.1
Semiconductors:
Unfilled Orders 14,448] 14,238] 14,793 +15 3.8 “4. 14,008] 14,353] 25,330] -44.7
Total Inventories. 1444) 7,432 "540 +0.2 14 3. 7,198} 7,328] 7/807 :
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders. 16,743] 16,744) +15 -2.2/ 16,410] 16,569] 19,379] -15.3
Total inventories. 14/702} 14/831 v4 -0. 14,188] 14753 15/491 8.3
Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 277,770] 281,895] 286,825 “1.5; 1.7 +3.0] 276,872] 275,644] 283,532
Total Inventories. 74,388] 73/236) 74/420 +15 “1.6 +0.4] 1,656] 74/487!“ 74/409|
Motor vehicles and part:
Unfilled Orders 11,893] 11,977/ 12,009 0.3] -2.9) 11,883] 11,540f 13,394] -11.3
Total Inventories. 20,147) 20,235} 20,821 “2.8 1.3] 19,745] 20/352] 22/139] -10.8
Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Order 190,721] 194,267] 198,499 -1.8| “24 +4.9/ 189,646] 190,583] 194,626] -2.6
Total Inventories. 41/847] 984 41/687 +21 1:7 +1 39,899} 9} 40,855 23
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 10,984] 10,563) 10,200 +4.0 +3.6 -1.2] 10,405] 10,569] 13,174] -21.0
Total Inventories. 44,221] 44/536] 45,088 -0.7 “1.2 -1:2] 43,361] 44/403] 46,613] 710
Capital goods:
infilled Orders. 380,322} 383,796] 387,232 -0.9| -0.9| +18) 378,568) 377,152| 405,144] -6.6.
Total Inventories... 139,799] 140,793] 142/169 -0.7 -1.0) -0.6] 134/496] 142/796] 145/308 7A
Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 246,764} 249,236} 252,061 -1.0) 14 -2.2| 244,627/ 246,336] 280,644) -12.8
Total Inventories. 120,991] 122/213] 123/897 -1.0} 14 0.8] 116,236] 124,220] 127,006] -8.5
Defense capital good
Unfilled Orders. 133,558] 134,560| 135,171 0.7 0.5] +10.4/ 133,941) 130,816] 124,500] +7.6
Total Inventories 18,808} 18,580 18/272 +12 +17 + 18,260] 18,576] 18,302, 0.2

See footnotes at end of Table 1