Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
Shipments and Three Month

Moving Average

Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.

Billions Of Dollars, Billions Of Dollars
155000 158000 160000 16000
155000 15500
150000 150000
150000 15000
145000 yf \ 145000 || aso00 14500
4000
140000 J 140000 | | 14°°°° '
oN 135000 \ 13500:
135000 135000 ie
\ 130000 13000:
130000 130000 || 125000 125001
RRS88S8 885555 R89883888 5558
2t¢ap be eee ages etega tt eoggeadtesds
2~o6f2326568 2 233 20682326568 2233
— — Shipments Average — — NewOrders Average
Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars. US Ratios UO/S Ratios
240000 240000 2.9 29
235000 235000 PAR NY T
230000 Far 230000 24 24
225000 S 225000
220000 220000 Lg 1g
215000 CZ 215000 oe aa
210000 210000 14 4
R2888888 85585 B93 88888 8555 5
e332 hb ogee EES e¢ eset ee gg et eig
20s ff 3268 22 5 3 z~oaé 225268 & 2B Zz
— == Inventories Average —_—— 15 uo/s
Note:


Durable Goods Durable Goods
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
+ 210000 210000 250000 250000
240000 240000
205000 205000 A
230000 230000
200000 / ¥ \ 200000 I\
y/ 1 \ 220000 220000
\ iW,
195000 ra Y 195000 210000 f 210000
200000 200000
190000 \ 190000
il \ 190000 \ 190000
180000 180000
180000 180000 170000, 170000
RE 88888885555 828889885555
ogee toe abe ese e ee age eEESQ
o o 5 co co
28S sPFFSFPS RRS B 28s FBRFSRPES?Z
— — Shipments ——_ Average —— — NewOrders ———— Average
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios ‘UO /S Ratios
315000 315000 4.75 4.75
4.25 4.25
3.75 3.75
305000 305000
3.25 3.25
2.75 2.75
295000 295000
2.25 2.25
1.75 “7s
285000 285000 1.25 1.25
RRR8888885 555 £83838 3335 555
eee ete og eg esg e¢¢42h toe 86 EE Ew
264223265642 232 z2o0ag62 235326586 2 £3 2
— — Inventories —— Average — 1/5 _—— ~«#(UO/sS

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
75000 75000 85000 85000
80000 80000
72000 \ 72000
/ 75000 75000
69000 A 69000
Y f
I 70000 t 70000
\
66000 f ‘AN 66000 JV
N 65000 65000
63000 63000
60000 60000

60000 60000 55000 55000
RRS883 88355 FE R898888885 555
ot ee be oe e age gv oe yee bE os 2h tg
Ss gtes PERSP ZR? 2§zs PEEPS RR ERB

— — Shipments Average — — New orders Average

Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods

Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total

Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UO /S Ratios

135000 135000 s 55
5.0 5.0
yy, \ 45 4s

130000 ft 130000

\ 4.0 4.0
. 3S 35
3.0 3.0
125000 125000
25 25
2.0 2.0
ee,

120000 420000 Ls Ls
saaogegee88s55565 2272eg8e88888s55565
5 Ss a > oe eo FF Fess F
PSePEEPS REPRE? 23 e253 8 2 25?
— — Inventories Average —— 1/5 uo/s

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF

MERCE

ECONOMICS

AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE

WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 September 27, 2001
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-01-160
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(01)-08
ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

August 2001

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in August, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.6 billion or 0.3
percent to $180.8 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 1.1 percent July
decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Year to date, new orders are 11.6 percent below the
same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.1 billion or 2.1 percent to $51.6 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts
increased 0.1 percent to $7.4 billion. Computers and electronic products, led by semiconductors and communications
equipment, increased $0.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $32.4 billion. Machinery increased $0.5 billion or 2.1 percent to $24.0
billion.

© SHIPMENTS of durable goods in August, down three consecutive months, decreased $2.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $185.2
billion, following a 0.2 percent July decrease. Year to date, shipments are 6.6 percent below the same period a year ago.

Computers and electronic products, down eight consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $1.9 billion or 5.5 percent to
$33.4 billion; this is the lowest level since September 1996. Transportation equipment decreased $0.6 billion or 1.2 percent to
$53.6 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $0.2 billion or 2.5 percent to $8.1 billion.

e UNFILLED ORDERS for durable goods in August, down eight consecutive months, decreased $4.3 billion or 0.8 percent to
$563.8 billion, following a 1.0 percent July decrease. Transportation equipment, down three consecutive months, had the
largest decrease, $2.0 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.2 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts decreased $0.7 billion or 0.4 percent
to $149.3 billion. Computers and electronic products, down nine consecutive months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.7 percent to
$131.9 billion. Machinery, down seven of the last eight months, decreased $0.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $59.6 billion.

@ INVENTORIES for durable goods in August, down seven consecutive months, decreased $2.0 billion or 0.7 percent to
$295.9 billion, following a 1.0 percent July decrease. Computers and electronic products, down six consecutive months, had the
largest decrease, $0.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $55.7 billion.

* CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in August decreased $0.9 billion or 14.1 percent to $5.4
billion. Shipments decreased 0.5 percent to $6.4 billion. Unfilled orders, down three consecutive months, decreased $1.0
billion or 0.8 percent to $122.7 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $18.3 billion; this is the first
increase since April.

¢ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in August, up for the first time since March, increased
$0.5 billion or 0.8 percent to $59.8 billion. Shipments, down five of the last six months, decreased $1.5 billion or 2.4 percent
to $61.5 billion. Unfilled orders, down eight consecutive months, decreased $1.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $266.4 billion.
Inventories, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $127.1 billion.

@ REVISED JULY DATA Revised seasonally adjusted July figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $338.3
billion (revised from $339.1 billion); new orders, $332.3 billion (revised from $333.4 billion); unfilled orders, $568.1 billion
(revised from $568.4 billion); and total inventories, $468.5 billion (revised from $469.2 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods data will be published October 4, 2001 at 10:00 A.M. The advance report on durable goods for September is scheduled for October 25, 2001 at 8:30 A.M


Computers and Electronic
Products
Shipments and Three Month
Moving Average

Computers and Electronic
Products
New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average

Billions Of Dols Bilions Of Dollars
55000 55000
48000 48000 n
50000, 50000
. \ _ YX
42000 | Af \ 42000 || 45000 yh Ay \ 45000
\ 40000 ) 40000
36000 ‘ 36000 \
35000 35000
33000 33000 nN
=
30000 30000 30000 30000
RE 88888885585 B28 88888 558 5
oe ¢ eg pe oe get ig esy se se ee ea tes
~o0A6f 253268 & 23 3 2642237658 2 5 3
— i == Shipments Average — = New Orders Average
Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars. VS Ratios ‘UO /S Ratios
65000 65000 || 4.5 ~~) 45
4.0 4.0
gw 35 35
60000 f 60000
1 3.0 3.0
25 25
55000 55000
1s ——T 1s
50000 50000 |! 1.0 10
RRR8SSRE ESE 5S 822283888 85 55 5
et¢4 ee eh 84 E88 es es be ee eg cig
266 Ff 253268 & F 3? ~o0oé8 235326682 23 3
— — = inventories Average —— 1/5 uo/s
J

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Sei 7
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
Item Change
Aug Jul Jun Jul - Jun - May - Aug Jul Aug Aug
2001 7 2001 ' 2001 Aug? Jul" Jun 2001? 2001 ' 2000 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments. 187,821 1.2 0.2 -2.4) 186,038] 157,494] 202,620 8.2
New Orders. 183,438] 0.3 V4 -2'8) 177,753) 161/353] 200,318] = -11.3
Excluding transportation:
Shipments. 131,545] 133,164] 134,200 “1.2 0.8 -2.9] 130,414] 120,451] 147,541] -11.6
New Orders. 129,194] 128/662) 131,193] +04 1.9) v9] 126/171] 118,227] 144/552] -12:7
Excluding defens:
Shipments... 179,995] 180,219 1.2] 0.1 -2.8] 179,024] 150,965] 196,466 8.9
New Orders. 174,162] 176,826 +03 15 -2.1] 173,685] 146,892] 194,500] -10.7
Primary metals:
Shipments 11,992 12,083] 11,871 -0.8| +18 3.8) 12,264] 10,947] 13,751] -10.8
New Orders. 11/833] 11,945] 12,090 0.5} 1.2 -2:9] 11/874) 10,779] 13,123 “9.5
Fabricated metal product
Shipments 20,413] 20,360} 20,105 +0.3 +13 -3.0} 21,405] 18,990] 22,444) -4.6
New Orders. 20,103] 20,310] 20,158 “1.0 +08 V7] 20/840] 19/234) 22/362] “6.8
Machinery:
‘Shipments 24,642| 24,538] 24,200) +0.4] +14 -4.2| 23,250] 21,669) 24,124) 3.6
New Orders. 24.019] 23,527) 24,261 +21 -3.0 -1.6| 22/665} 21/040] 24,707 8.3
Computers and electronic product
Shipments. 33,401] 35,328] 36,969 5.5 4.4 -2.2| 31,042] 30,248] 43,369] -28.4
New Orders. 32:414| 31/300] 33/978 +16 “6.1 -3:4) 28,868) 27/714] 41,099] -29.8
Computers and related products:
Shipments. 7.411 8,511 8,677| “12.9 1.9 7.8] 6,471 7,282| 10,346) 37.5
New Orders.......... 7,476] 8,166] 8,804 8.4] 72 4:9] 6,724] 6979] 11,582] -41.9
Communications equipmen
Shipments. 6,712 6,712 7,182! 0.0} 6.5 0.9) 5,914, 5,644] 8,611] -31.3
New Orders. 6,550] 6,038 5,273 +85] +145 “13.7 4,603 , 7:252| — -36.5
Semiconductors:
Shipments. 6,014] 6,615 7,147) “9.1 7.4] 24 5,785] 5,676] 9,101] -36.4
New Orders. 5.366] 4,691 6195] +144 -24.3 5.2] 5,202) 5,342 6676] -22.1
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Shipments 10,673| 10,491] 10,956 +47 -4.2| 3.0] 10,509 9,318] 11,180 6.0
New Orders. 10,478) 10,648] 10/574 1.6 +07 -1:7| 10,261 9,708] 11,126 78
Transportation equipment
Shipments 53,616] 54,247] 53,621 -1.2| +12 1.3] 55,624] 37,043] 55,079] +1.0
New Orders. 51,634| 52.745 zt 2.1 +10 -3:8] 51/582] 33/126] 55,766 75
Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipments 37,980] 38,283] 36,776 0.8 +41 -4,6] 40,118] 24,207] 40,069} +0.1
New Orders. 37\847| 38,087| 36,668 -0.6 43.9 -4.4| 39,814) 24/133] 39/558] +06
Aircraft and part:
‘Shipments 10,747] 10,863| 11,725 14 7.4) +7.7| 10,703] 8,481] 10,258] +4.3
New Orders. 91263 91805] 10,714) “5.5 “8.5 “7.2, 8,120] 5,661] 12,005] -32.4
Alll other durable good:
‘Shipments 30,424] 30,364] 30,099) +0.2 +09 -2.0) 31,944] 29,279] 32,673 2.2
New Orders: 30,341 30/332] 30,134) 0.0) +0.7 0.2] 31/663] 29,752) 32,135 15
Capital goods:
Goes as 67,905] 69,470] 71,356 -2.3 2.6} 1.7] 64,514] 60,469) 73,858] -12.7
New Orders. 65,258] 65,654] 66,809) 0.6} 17 4:5] 58,541] 54,559] 74,022] -20.9
Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments. 61,475] 63,008] 64,681 “2.4 “2.6 2.8] 58,284) 54,705] 68,367) -14.7
New Orders. 59,842] 59,352] 61,364 +08 -3:3 -3.8) 54/892] 50,232] 69,067] -20.5
Defense capital goods:
Shipments. 6,430] 6,462 6,675 -0.5| -3.2| +9.6 6,230] 5,764 +135
New Orde 5.416] 6,302 5,445 14.1] 415.7 “11:8 3,649 4/327 -26.4

(NA) Not Available" Revised

* Shipments and new or
are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month vi

tion:

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is
nonsampling eror, which includes errors of coverage, response and sonreporting-Since the survey, panels nota probability sample, estimates of sampling err cannot be calculated.
Further details on survey design, methodology. and ns are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(00),
‘Manutactures” Shipmonts, Inventories, and Orders: 1992200

Goods Industies include Nondefense: small arms and ordnance: farm machinery and equipment; construction mac

pA
electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, apy

avigi eq
airratt allroad roling stock: ships and boats tutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies.

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

Jers are the totals for the period and aro adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfild orders and total inventories ae as of the end ofthe period and


3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted"
Monthly Percent Chan; ‘Monthly
Item Change
Aug Jul Jun Jul - Jun - May - ‘Aug Jul Aug Aug
2001? 2001 ° 2001 Aug? Jul’ Jun 2001? 2001 ° 2000 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Orders. 563,777} 568,110] 574,112 -0.8| 1.0) 0.8] 557,764] 566,049] 579,320 “3.7
Total Inventories. 295,890] 297,936] 300,823 0.7 1.0] 1.1] 297/984] 298/924] 308/827 “3.5
Excluding transportatio
Unfilled Orders. 279,597) 281,948] 286,448 -0.8 “1.6 -1.0] 277,955] 282,198] 315,120] -11.8
Total Inventories. 221,802 223/557| 226,276 08 “1.2 -0.9] 222694] 223'861] 230/119 “3.2
Excluding defense:
Unfilled Orders. 422,810] 426,099] 431,930) 0.8 -1.3] -0.8] 419,337! 424,676] 441,221 5.0
Total Inventories. 274,415] 276,523] 279/356 -0.8 1:0) -0.9] 275,972 7156] 285,026) “3.2
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders. 18,692] 18,851] 18,989 -0.8] 0.7 +1.21 18,600] 18,990] 20,189] -7.9
Total Inventories 20,544) 20,817| 21,117 1.3) “1.4 -1.6] 20,550] 20,826] 22'977/ -10.6
Fabricated metal product
Unfilled Orders, 41,636] 41,940] 41,990) 0.7 -0.1 +0.1] 41,883] 42,448] 43,775 4.3
Total Inventori 34,091] 34/118] 34/367 0.1 -0.7| -1.6] 34033} 34/317] 35,238] 3.4
Machinery:
Unfilled Orders. 59,615] 60,238] 61,249 1.0 1.7 +01! 59,102] 59,687] 63,981 7.6
Total inventories. 50,305| 50,604] 5 1!022 -0.6 0.8 0.0f 0,276] 50,284) 50,049] +015
Computers and electronic products:
Unfilled Orders. 131,936] 132,923] 136,351 -0.7 -2.5) -2.1] 130,521] 132,695] 154,873 -15.7
Total Inventories. 55,698] 56,439] 57/537 “1.3 -1.9| -1.7| 56,806 020] 59,379 43
Computers and retated product
Unfilled Orders. 10,120] 10,055] 10,400 +0.6 -3.3] +12! 10,3741 10,121] 10,789) “3.8
Total Inventories. 8,615} 8,708] 786 1 0.9} 4.4] 9/057 8,74: 9,528 “4:9
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 44,630| 44,792) 45,466 1.5 -4.0| 43,001] 44,3121 47,577 -9.6
Total inventories. 10,888} 11,233] 11/485) -2.2 1-3] 10,941] 11,162) 13/436] -18.6
Semiconductors:
Unfilled Orders... 14,856] 15,504] 17,428 -11.0| -5.2] 15,213] 15,796] 30,002] -49.3
Total Inventories. 8,026] 7.980} 8,472 “5.8 +02) 8.044) 130) 1337| +96
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders. 17,403 +0.9 2.1 17,306} 17,554 19,341} -10.5
Total Inventories. 15,481 “1.6 -1:8] 15/131] 15/175] 15,413 “1.8
Transportation equij
Unfilled Orders. 287,664 0.5 -0.5] 279,809] 283,851] 264,200] +5.9
Total Inventories. 74/547 -0.2 -1.6} 75,290] 75,063] "78/708 43
Motor vehicles and part:
Unfilled Orde 12,655} 12,788] 12,984 “1.5 0.8) 12,247] 12,551] 13,554 9.6
Total Inventories. 21,198} 21/518] 21706 0:9 1.21 21,430] 21/783] 23/324] 8.1
Aircraft and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 196,006] 197,064 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5] 192,103] 194,686] 176,742] +8.7
Total Inventories. 40,984] 40/872 +03 +0.3 0.9] 41/81 41,271] 43/090] —-3.0
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 10,347] 10,430] 10,462 0.8 . +0.3] 10,543] 10,824] 12,961
Total Inventor 45,934] 46/351 -0.9 -0.9] 0.0] 45,898] 46,239] 47/063
Capital gpodsts
infilled Orders. 389,093] 391,740] 395,555 0.7 1.1] 382,882] 388,855] 388,162
Total Inventories. 148,449] 146,121] 147/309] 0.5 -1:3[ 147/124] 146/514] 150/401
Nondefense capital good:
Unfilled Orders.. 266,372} 268,005] 271,660 -0.6| 1.2) 262,602] 265,994] 265,023}
Total Inventories. 127,127| 127/907| 129/048, -0.6 -0.9] 128/418 1993] 131,088,
Defense capital good:
Unfilled Orders. 122,721) 123,735] 123,895) -0.8| -1.0] 120,280] 122,861] 123,139
Total Inventories. 322] 18,214] 18/264] +06 -4.0] 18,706] 18/521

See footnotes at end of Table 1