ECONOMICS

NITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
a Be = U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
BWie © oF WASHINGTON, DC 20230

U.S. Census Bureau For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

For Data - (301) 457-4673, April 24, 2

For Questions - Dan Sansbury or Derrick Roy CB-02-57

(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814 .

M3-1(02)-3

Special Notice
The number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey has risen to a level such
that the Census Bureau can no longer produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories. This report will not
show any semiconductor shipments, inventories, or orders estimates for March 2002. Semiconductor estimates also will not be included in
any aggregate estimates for: Total durable goods; Total durable goods, excluding transportation; Total durable goods, excluding defense;
and Computer and electronic products.

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
March 2002

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS (excluding semiconductors) for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $1.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $173.4
billion, the Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.7 percent February increase. Excluding
transportation, new orders decreased 0. 1 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2002 were 5.1 percent below the same period a year ago; new
orders for the first quarter were 0.6 percent above the fourth quarter.

Transportation equipment, mostly due to ships and boats, had the largest decrease, $0.9 billion or 1.6 percent to $55.9 billion; nondefense aircraft
and parts increased 0.3 percent to $7.8 billion. Machinery, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $21.8 billion.

© SHIPMENTS (excluding semiconductors) of durable goods in March slightly increased to $172.4 billion. This followed a 3.0 percent
February decrease. Year to date, shipments for 2002 were 5.6 percent below the same period a year ago; shipments for the first quarter were
slightly above the fourth quarter.

Primary metals had the largest increase, $0.4 billion or 3.8 percent to $11.3 billion. Machinery decreased $0.4 billion or 1.8 percent to $23.1
billion, due to turbine and generators. Transportation equipment also decreased $0.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $52.4 billion, due to motor vehicles
and parts; nondefense aircraft and parts increased 0.4 percent to $8.1 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS (excluding semiconductors) for durable goods in March increased $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $524.5 billion.
This followed a 0.4 percent February increase.

Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $3.5 billion or 1.3 percent to $279.8 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts, down eleven
consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $130.1 billion. Machinery, down eight of the last nine months, decreased $1.3
billion or 2.3 percent to $54.0 billion.

@ INVENTORIES (excluding semiconductors) for durable goods in March, down fourteen consecutive months, decreased $2.9 billion or
1.1 percent to $268.2 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent February decrease.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $2.0 billion or 2.7 percent to $71.1 billion.
©@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in March increased $1.5 billion or 17.8 percent to $10.2 billion. Shipments
increased $0.5 billion or 8.6 percent to $6.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $3.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $136.2 billion. Inventories
decreased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $18.7 billion.
®@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in March decreased $1.6 billion or 2.8 percent to $55.7 billion.
Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $59.2 billion. Unfilled orders, down fifteen consecutive months, decreased $3.5 billion or 1.5
percent to $235.3 billion. Inventories, down fourteen consecutive months, decreased $2.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $116.1 billion.

SEE BACK PAGE FOR UPCOMING REVISIONS

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers” shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS

(Millions of Dollars)
‘Seasonally Adjusted ‘Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Chi Monthly Percent
Item Change
Mar Feb Jan Jan - Dec - Mar Feb Mar
2002? 2002" 2002 Feb" Jan 20027 2002" 2001 ozo
DURABLE GOODS
Total:*
172,390) 172,369] 177.743] 0.0} 3.0 1.7] 187,869] 167,447] 203,403 16
173,405] 17 169,835 0.6 27 0.9) 189/767} 171/821] 204/949 74
119,992] 119,601] 122,178] 0.3 24 1.4] 129,792] 114,326] 144,429] “10.1
117.476] 117,561] 118,746] 01 “10 0.5] 126,470] 114.716] 139,024) 9.0
164,185] 164,722] 169,562' 0.3 “2.9 1.9] 178,795] 160,262] 195,969] 88
161,871] 163,806] 163,518) “1.2 0.2 12] 175,082] 161,503] 192/387] 9.0
11,272] 10,860] 11,367! 38 4.5 4.3] 11,888| 10,992) 12,857, 78
10,984] = 10,774] 11,027 19) “2.3 2:3] 1t'e80f. 11.490] 12/695) 8.0
19,735] 19.678] 20,233, 0.3 “2.7 1.6] 20,420] 19,314] 21,429} “47
19,679] 19.440 602 12 08 0.2) 20,684] 19,411 211422] “34
Machinery:
Shipment: seceseeeenee 23,126] 23,540] 23,431 18 0.5] 5.0] 25,537] 22,179] 28,210) 9.5
New Orders... . 21/838] = 221421 22,160 14) 04 val 23/862 21/425] 26,653] 10.5
Computers and electronic products:
Shipment 26,666] 26,786] 27,532 -0.4 “2.7 -20] 31,299] 24,546] 39,055) 19.9
New Orders. 26.094] 26,536] 26,982 7 “17 -0.8] 30,417] 24/843] 37,479) 18.8
Computers and related products:
Shipments... 7,649 7,893 8,250 3 4.3 15 9,910) 6,726] 13,408 26.1
New Orders... 7844 8.115 8.386 33 3.2 45] 10,048, 7166] 13,435 25.2
Communications equipment:
Shipments.....--eo-eeee 5,556 5,812 5,848 4.4 -0.6 2.5 6,446) 5,101 9,455 “31.8
New Orders... 5,142 6,022 5,962 14.6 1.0 8.7 5,927 5,483 8.911 33/5
Semiconductor
‘Shipment (a) 5,864 6,736 (NA) 12.9 14.0) (NA) 5,708 9,232 (Nay
New Order (NAD 7,034 7,434 (NA) 54 21.3 (NA) 7,023 7/560 (way
Electrical equipment, appliances,
nd componer
Shipments. 9,543 9,352 9,632 2.0 -2.9 3.0} 10,511 9,118] 12,346 14.9
New Order 9.279 9,497 91054 23 49 59 9,960 91589] 11,595 44
‘Transportation equipment:
Shipments. 52,398] 52,768] 55,565 0.7 -5.0 25} 58,077| 53,121 58,974] 15
New Order ‘| 55/923] 56,820] 51,089) 16 11.2 4:3] 63/297] 57,105] 65,925) “4.0
Motor vehicles and part
‘Shipments 35,568] 36,529] 39,231 5.4) 38,999] 37,754] 41,559) 6.2
New Order 35,687] 36,632] 39,120 sal 39,032) 37/947] 41/286 55
Aircraft and parts:
‘Shipments 11,232] 10,961 10,506 25 43 4.9 12,748] 10,401 11,890] 7.2
New Orders 13,647 12/467 7,769 95 60.5 10.3 16,694] 11,291 14,727 13.4
All other durable goods:
Shipment 29.650] 29,385] 29,983 0.9] “2.0 2.0! 30,167, 28,177] 30,532 12
New Orders. 29.602] 29,172] 29.921 15 25 0.3) 29,877) = 27/958] 29,180 24
Capital goods
Shipment: 66,114) 66,857 0.9] 2.0 74,761 60,921} 84,524) 11.6
New Order 65,983 59,308) 01 13 75.478] 62.540} 87.491 13.7
Nondefense capital good
Shipments..... 59,209] 59,153] 59,837 0.4 Ad 0.3] 67,1361 54,910} 78,171 144
New Orders. 55,746| 57,349] 54/833 28 46] 18] 62,727 54,2631 76,690) 18.2
Defense capital goods:
Shipments... ces 6,905 6,356 7,020 8.6 9.5 51 7,625 6.011 6,353 20.0
New Orders. eee 10,237 8,690 41475 1738 94.2 24:8 12,751 8,277| 10,801 18.1
INA} Not Available" Revised

* Shipments and

are not adjusted for tradi

and calendar-month

ations: unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and

1s are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading.
lay or calendar-month variations.

? Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error y sacpls, One major component of survey error is
error, which includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting.” Since the survey panel f nota probabl stimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.
ison survey design, methodology, and data lmitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication. Current industiat Reports: M3:1(00),
“Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-2000."

° ‘The Capital Goods industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mi
9. laundry, and other machinery: photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; tur

I handling eat ‘computers: computer storage

jation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and control instruments; electrical equipm

road rolling stock; ships and boats:

9 ol and gas field machinery: industial
1es and generators; other power transmi nd

ment:
it; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks:

frice and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies.

* agg mates and percent changes exclude semiconductor industry data. The number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey
‘has igen to a level such that the Census Bureau can no longer produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders. or inventories.

* The number of large semiconductor manufacturers choosing not to participate in this voluntary monthly survey has risen to a level such that the Census Bureau can no longer
produce monthly estimates of semiconductor shipments, orders, or inventories.

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment. aircraft: missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.



3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES
(Millions of Dollars)

‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted *
Monthly Percent Change Monthly Pe it
Item Change
Mar Feb Jan Feb - Jan - Dec - Mar Feb Mar Mar
2002? 2002‘ 2002 Mar? Feb‘ Jan 20027 2002 2001 02/01
DURABLE Goons
Total:*
Unfilled Order: 524,526 523,511 521,499] 0.2 0.4] 533,014) 531,116] 574,032 “7.1
Total Inventor 268,222] 271,089| 272/910 44 07 265,899| 272'904| 296,168] 10.2
Excluding tr rtatic
Untied Orders 244,761 247,277| 249,317 “1.0 0.8 247,443| 250,765] 282,206] -12.3
Total Inventorie 97,140] 198,023] 198,673 0.4 0.8 496/911] 199,851] 222/032) 11.8
Exch
oN He Ore 368,842| 371,156] 372,072 0.6 0.2] 372,672] 376,388] 427,605] -12.8
Total Inventories. 245,980] 248,457] 250,146) -1.0 -0.7 244,155] 250,156] 274,684 “V4
Primary metals:
Unfilled Order: 16,506 16,794) 16,880 1.7 -0.5 17,247 17,425 19,792 -12.9
Total Inventories. 18,803 19,089 19,355 “1.5 1.4 18,724) 19,180) 21,906 14.5
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders. 38,666 38,722 38,960) -0.1 -0.6) 38,917 38,653 42,895 -9.3
Total Inventories. 31/922] 32/043| 32/325 0.4 0:3 32,079] 32/250) 35,532) 8.7
Machinery:
Uniilled Order 84,033] 55,321] 56,719] 2.3 25 54,605] 56,290] 63,460|-14.0
Total Inventori 47,684 47,841 48,078 -0.3 0.5] 3 | 48,500} 51,813, 7.9
te id elect duct:
Computes fgg Greer produc 108,306} 109,878] 110,128 0.5] 0.2 110,479] 111,361] 125,398
Total Inventories. . 40,672 41,001 41,685 0.8 -1.6 39,297 41,151 49,516
Computers and related products:
Unfilled Orders. 10,096 9,901 9,679} 2.0 2.3 1.4| 9,909 10,250)
Total Inventories. 398 7,311 7,424 1.2 1.5) -2.2 7,006 ,
Communications equipment
Unfilled Orders. 40,240, 40,654 40,444) -1.0) 0.5 0.3] 40,873] 41,392 49,201 -16.9
Total Inventories. 8,065 8,235 8,497 “2.4 “3.1 -0.9] 7,721 8,289 11,859 -34.9
Semicondu luctors:
Unfillec rs {NA} 16,298) 15,128 (NA) 7.7 48 (NA) 16,512 21,036) (NA)
Total Inventories. {NA} 7,242 7,108 (NA) 1.9] -3.2 (NA) 7,327 |, 367] (NA)
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Unfilled Orders... 15,748 16,012) 18,867 1.6) 09 3.5 15,955 16,506 19,036| 16.2
Total Inventories. 14,323] 14,428) 14,520} 0.7 0.6) -0.9 14,397 14,759) 16,132 -10.8
Transportation equipment
Unfilled Orders. 279,765| 276,234) 272,182 1.3) 1.5 1.6] 285,571 280,351 291,826) 22.1
Total Inventories. 71,082 73,066) 73,237 2.7 -0.2 1.0) 73,053 74,137 5.6
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Orders. 12,002 11,883) 11,780) 1.0 0.9) -0.9 12,572 12,539 13,473 6.7
Total Inventories. 19,495 19,473 19,701 0.1 1.2 1.6 19,341 19,430 21,727 11.0
Aircraft and yi
Unfilled Orders. 191,450] 189,035] 187,529 1.3 0.8) “1.4 “1.9
Total Inventories. 39,587 41,458) 41,557, 4.5) 0.2 -0.4 4.7
All other durable goods:
Unfilled Orders. 10,502 10,550) 10,763 -0.5 -2.0) -0.6 10,240) 10,530) 11,625) “11.9
Total Inventories. 43,736) 43,621 43,710) 0.3 0.2 -0.4 43,711 44,011 47,133 7.3
Capital goods:
infilled Orders. 371,487| 371,618] 371,088) 0.0) 0.1 -2.0} 377,908] 377,191 410,311 -7.9
Total Inventories. 134,798) 136,972) 137,856 -1.6 0.6) -0.8 132,795 137,622 148,039) -10.3
Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Orders. 235,265) 238,728] 240,532) 15 0.8] -2.0] 237,563] 241,972] 281,608) -15.6
Total inventories. 116,125) 118,203) 119,156 1.8] -0.8 -0.9) 114,493) 118,980} 130,040 12.0
Defense capital good!
Unfilled Orders. 136,222} 132,890] 130,556, 2.5 1.8 -1.9 140,345) 135,219] 128,703 9.0
Total Inventories. 18,673 18,769] 18,700) -0.5) 0.4) -0.3 18,302 18,642) 17,999 1.7

See footnotes at end of Table 1