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PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1998/1999 MONTHLY "M3" SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

RELEASE DATES

REPORT
COVERING

ADVANCE REPORT
(8:30 a.m. release time)

REGULAR REPORT
(10:00 a.m. release time)

November 1998

Wed., Dec. 23 (10 A.M.)

Thurs., Jan 7, 1

999

December 1998

Thur., Jan. 28

Thur., Feb 4

January 1999

Thur., Feb. 25

Thur., Mar. 4

February 1999

Wed., Mar. 24

Wed., Mar. 31

March 1999

_

Wed., Apr. 28

Wed., May 5

April 1999

Wed ., May 26

Thur., June 3

May 1999

Thur, June 24

Fri, July 2

June 1999

Wed, July 28

Wed., Aug. 4

July 1999

Wed., Aug. 25

Thur., Sep. 2 |
J

‘August 1999

Wed., Sept. 29

Wed., Oct. 6

September 1999 it

Wed., Oct. 27

Wed., Nov.

3

October 1999 |

Tues., Nov. 23

November 1999

Thur, Dec. 23

Fri., Dec. 3



ECONOMICS

AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 10:00 A.M. EST
For Data - (301) 457-4673 December 23, 1998
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Lee Wentela CB98-239
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4852
M3-1(98)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
November 1998
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $2.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $190.7
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.1 percent October decrease and is
the fifth increase in the last six months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent, the second increase in the last
three months. Year-to-date, new orders are 3.4 percent above the same period a year ago.

Primary metals, up for the first month since August, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 9.9 percent to $14.7 billion, followin,
a 3.9 percent October decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up two of the last three months, increased $0.4 billion or 1.
percent to $36.0 billion. This follows an 8.7 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, up for the first month since
August, increased $0.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $45.0 billion; all component industries except shipbuilding and tanks increased.
This follows a 0.6 percent October decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since August,
decreased $0.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $32.8 billion, due to electronic components. This follows a 1.5 percent October increase.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in November increased $1.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $195.0 billion. This follows a
0.5 percent October increase and is the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Year-to-date, shipments are 5.3 percent above the same
period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up five of the last six months, had the largest increase, $0.5 billion or 1.7 percent to
$32.8 billion, following a 0.6 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, up for the fourth consecutive month, increased
$0.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $48.4 billion. This follows a 3.1 percent October increase. Industrial machinery and equipment,
down for the first month since August, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $36.9 billion. This follows a 0.9 percent October
increase. Primary metals, down eight of the last nine months, decreased $0.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $14.4 billion, following a
2.4 percent October decrease.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in November decreased $4.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $496.5 billion.
This follows a 1.0 percent October decrease and is the sixth decline in the last seven months. Transportation equipment, down six
of the last seven months, had the largest decrease, $3.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $244.8 billion. This follows a 1.3 percent October
decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the second consecutive month, decreased $0.8 billion or 1.1 percent to
$73.3 billion, following a 2.0 percent October decrease. Electronic and other electrical equipment, down for the first month since
August, decreased slightly to $603 billion. This follows a 1.9 percent October increase. Primary metals, up for the first month
since February, increased $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent to $29.7 billion. This follows a 4.0 percent October decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in November, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.4
billion or 5.6 percent to $6.0 billion, following a 10.1 percent October decrease. Shipments, down two of the last three months,

decreased $0.2 billion or 2.2 percent to $6.9 billion, following a 7.0 percent October increase. Unfilled orders, down six of the

last seven months, decreased $0.9 billion or 1.0 percent to $95.4 billion, following a 0.8 percent October decrease.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in November, up for the first month since August, increased
$1.1 billion or 2.2 percent to $51.3 billion, following a 6.2 percent October decrease. Shipments, up for the third consecutive
month, increased $0.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $54.6 billion. This follows a 1.0 percent October increase. Unfilled orders, down
for the second consecutive month, decreased $3.3 billion or 1.3 percent to $259.7 billion, following a 1.4 percent October
decrease. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $1.4 billion or 3.2 percent to $44.5 billion, the third increase in the
last four months; shipments increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $45.1 billion, the third consecutive monthly increase; unfilled
orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $105.4 billion, the second consecutive monthly decline.

@ REVISED OCTOBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted October figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$340.7 billion (revised from $340.1 billion); new orders, $335.3 billion (revised from $335.1 billion); unfilled orders, $524.9
billion (revised from $525.3 billion); and total inventories, $470.8 billion (revised from $471.5 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published January 7, 1999 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled for January 28,
1999 at 8:30 AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of dollars)
Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted!
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Noy, Oct, Sept, | Oct; | Sept- | Aug- Nov, Oct, Nov,
1998 1998" 1588 | Nov? | “Oct? | ‘Sepe 1998 198" 1997 |Nov.98/97
DURABLE GOODS
Total: |
Shipments ..... . 195,039 | 193,877 | 192,842 6 +0. +21 | 195,102 | 199,238 | 181,893
New orders’ < ° - 190,65 188697 | 192,783 +10 21 +13 | 1881557 | 197,668} 191,215 14
Unfilled orders 496,494 | 500,874 | 506,054 09 - 0.0 | 4927997 | 499542 | 507:877 “
Excluding defensi
shipments ....-- 2.000055 188,124 | 186,810 | 186,236] +0.7 +03} +23] 187,986 ] 192,237 | 174,912 +15
New orders 184°683 | 182/367 | 185,741 +13 $B] +02 | 182361 | 191955 | 185,091 13
Unfilled orders 401,118 | 404°559 ] 409,002 09 “1 -0.1 | 399,763 | 405,388 | 408,358
With unfilled orders :
Shipments ......... 161,915 | 160,630 | 159,516 +08 40.7} 42.1 | 162,022 | 162,522 | 150,242 +78
New orders 157,535 | 155,450 | 159,457 | +13 25] +11 | 155:477 | 160,952 | 159,564 26
Primary metals :
Shipments . 14,407 14,599 14,951 -13 -0.7 14,040 14,934 15,420
New orders : 14712 13381 13.917 | +99 3.9 34 14.269 13146 15,763 -9.5
Unfilled orders - - 20,722 | 29417 | 30,635 | +1.0 “4. 33 | 287103 | 27,874 33,445 “16.
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments . : : 36,870 | 37,091 36,775 -0.6 +09 | +02) 34,700] 35,555 | 32,592 +65
New orders 36,020 | 35,583 | 38,983 +12 87] +41 34,497 | 34,832 | 33,326 435
Unfilled orders . . 73.272 | 74122 | 75,630 “1 20) +30) 73,921 74,124 75,001 4
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments ...........-- 32,783 | 32,239] 32,422} +17 06) +38] 34210} 32,455 | 30,891 +10.7
New orders 32,759 | 33,36. 32/870 “18 +15] +56 | 32,081 7,70 28,781 +15
60,349 | 60,373 59,249 00 +19] +08 ] 605668 | 62,797 | 55.596 491
48,435 | 48,009 8 | +0.9 43.1 +49 | 49,941 $1,677 | 43,769 | +14.
45,034 | _44'839 | 45,101 +04 -06 -35 | 46/500 | 47,990 3127 “14.1
DIDTIIIIT I} 24823 | 2482224 | 251394 “14 “13 “0% | 2421998 | 246,439} 253.617 42
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total
Shipments . 61,517 | 61,010 } 60,025 0.8 +16] 43.7) 60,434 | 38,485 $3,141 +137
New orders. $7270 } 56.540 | 60,582 | +13 67] +05 56,705 34:206 | 63,776 WL
Unfilled orders 355,039 | 359:286 | 363,756 2 12 | +0.2 | 353/334 | 357,063 | 363,803 29
Nondefense :
Shipments. . 34,602 | $3,943 | 53419 | +12 +10] +43 $3,318 | 31484] 46,160 +15.5
New orders 1 50210 | 53.540 | +22 6.2 -33 | 50,509 | _48'493 57.652 “124
Unfilled orde 259/663 | 262971 | 266,704 “13 14 00 | 260/100 | 262,909 | 264,284 “16
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments vee | 43,140 | 45,059 | 45,021 0.2 40.1 +3.0 | 43,614 | 43,080 | 39,515 +104
New orders 44490 | 43,103 | 47,663 432 96] +64] 43.463 | 41,866 | 40,397 47.6
Unfilled orders 105.415 | 106,065 | 108,021 -06 -l +25 | 108,852 | 106,003 | 104,010 +18
Defense :
Shipments ....---- +++ ++ 6,915 7,067 6,606 22 +7.0 12 7,116 7,001 6,981
New orders... 5.976 6,330 042 “56 | -10:1) +428 6.196 S713 6,124 +12
Unfilled orders - 95376 | 96,315 | 97,052 -10 08} +05 3234 | 94,154 | 99,519 z

(NA) Not available. * Revised,

© Shipments and new orders ae he totals for the per and are adjusted fo ating day and calendu-menth variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe en ofthe pio and are oot adjusted for tading-day oF caendarsmonh variations

2 Rased on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shir
response aa nonreporting. "Since the survey panel is nota peobabi
fenchmark publication, Current Industrial Repors: M3-1(96),

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense

Complete aiteraft, missiles, and space vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehic
‘ordnance, communication equipment,

Defense capital goods include

‘ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines,
machinery, general industrial mackinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, heating and service industry

ments, inventories, and orders are svhjeet to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error es nonsampling error, which includes errors of coverage.

Tay samples estimates of sampling ert cannot he calculated, Further Jetails an survey desiga, methodology, and data imitations are continel in oar most recent an

“Manufacturers” Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1987-1996,"

eral combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery. special industry
machinery, electrical transmission and distibution equipment, vletrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,

le engines and parts, ships and tank comprinents, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

ft, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1997- | Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1997-|_ Year ago Nov. |Nov. 1997-

Nov. 1997 | 1993-1997 | Oct. 1998 | Nov. 1997 | 1993-1997] Oct. 1998] Nov. 1997] 1993-1997} Oct. 1998

Durable goods ...... 0.202.000 0. 02 04 03 02 08 Ol Ol 02

Primary metals 05 06 05 13 08 08 05 03 03

Industrial machinery’ and equipment 0.0 07 07 03 12 07 oa 03 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment . 1.0 08 08 03 07 23 07 os 07

‘Transportation equipment. -. - 09 05 13 15 08 17 ol 02 02

Nondefense capital goods... 07 08 09 02 ier 10 o4 02 02

Defense capital goods... 09 08 08 22 3.0 61 02 02 03

Note; The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes ofthe advance and final estimates. The monthly averages ae the simple averages ofthe differences, without regard tc

for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

215 215
New Orders

205 ----- rc tr rrr ts Shipments |-} 205

195 195

185 185
175 175
165 bot ! ! ! ! \ ! ! \ \ ! fl L165
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1996 - Nov. 1998
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

59 59

New Orders

54}| Shipments | - ----------------- 7-7-2 r rrr ree 184
49b--------- er re re 449
0 +] 44
39 1 1 L 1 1 L rm 1 1 1 1 it 39

Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1996- Nov. 1998

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.