Durable Goods Excluding Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
155000 155000 160000 160000
7”
150000 10000 || 15°? A \ 155000
150000 150000
145000 145000
v 145000 f y 145000
140000 V 140000 y y / \,
rae 140000 AJ 140000
1 135000 My “\
35000 135000 135000
130000 130000 130000 130000
eegRR ees ess Es ge22283333855
be og yg gee aggad £ 6$gakhe 8 gag
ESPs RSE PS EEE S238 82 253 8 S28
— — Shipments Average — New Orders Average
Durable Goods Excluding ( Durable Goods Excluding
Transportation Transportation
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars. 9 9 VS Ratios PI ‘UO/S Ratios
240000 240000 || 2.9 2.9
| 235000 235000
230000 a 230000 || 2.4 24
225000 Sf 225000
| 220000 Val 220000 V9 19
215000 215000 aw
——— on
210000 210000 14 14
SRRBSSSSEEE SS 238283888355
Reogga bes gag £ eo 2 § Ew a rs
22288 22528 FB 22288 225275 82 8
— Inventories Average —_—_—_ 1/5 vo/s
NS

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Durable Goods

| Durable Goods
i Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
H Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
210000 210000 250000 250000
240000 240000
205000 x A 205000 A
: I 230000 1 230000
200000 V 200000 | | 0000 I 220000
195000 Vv 195000 210000 210000
' be \ 200000 200000
190000 ~ 190000
i} 190000 V 190000
| 185000 185000 || 180000 180000
BRERRESESIR SS BRRRRES SSSR ES
ye oe GC EEE SE GSE eee oe E RE REEL
23268 2 f3258 2 EZ 232268 FZR2Z68 LZ
— = Shipments ‘Average — "New Orders Average
f f
Durable Goods Durable Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars 1/S Ratios UO /S Ratios
315000 315000 475 475
4.25 4.25
=
3,75 3.75
305000 305000
1
i 3.25 3.25
2.75 2.75
295000 295000
2.25 2.25
i
| || v.75 1.75
| 285000 285000 || 1.25 1.25
i eee2eenae2e28228855 aeanaoegegegegeeengs
| A a a oo 9 ODO FFF 2S 88s
| BSP SRPESPEREER S28 8 25238 8 BE
( — — Inventories Average —_—— 1/5 uo/s:

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


r
| Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Billions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars

75000 75000 85000 85000
72000 72000 80000 i 80000
69000 \ \ 69000 | | 75000 | aN A L 75000
66000 y 66000 || 70000 mn Y! + 70000

{ 63000 ~ 63000 65000 A J 65000

60000 60000 |) 60000 60000
agsRsssss sess RQRRRSSEEER ES
Ee oy 9h toh 3 4 5 Seog eus FER $ OE
$3278 822326568 2 =F $325 82 2ZRZ2Z568 LE

—o == Shipments Average — New Orders Average
_ -
Nondefense Capital Goods Nondefense Capital Goods
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars 1/S Ratios UO /S Ratios
135000 133000 5.5 5.5
5.0 5.0
45 45
130000 130000
4.0 4.0
35 35
3.0 3.0
125000 125000
25 25
2.0 menace 2.0
V——

120000 120000 1s Ms
g93a88e83855 ae93288828255
£eoe ea beng gad es e-_o te 6 2b ERs gas

| $228 FS FFRPSSLE 222765 82 FSZSCRLE

— = Inventories Average —_—_——<— 1/5 uo/s
ae

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


ECONOMICS
AND
STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION

BUREAU OF THE

CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 10:00 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 May 25, 2001
For Questions - Lee Wentela or Derrick Roy CB-01-93
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(00)-04
ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

April 2001

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $9.8 billion or 5.0 percent to $184.7 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.2 percent March increase. Excluding
transportation, new orders decreased 3.3 percent. Year to date, new orders for 2001 are 8.2 percent below the same period a

year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $5.4 billion or 9.3 percent to $52.4 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts
decreased $1.6 billion or 14.6 percent to $9.1 billion. Computers and electronic products, led by semiconductors, decreased
$3.6 billion or 8.8 percent to $37.6 billion; this is the fourth decrease in the last five months. Machinery, down three
consecutive months, decreased $0.7 billion or 2.8 percent to $23.7 billion.

e@ SHIPMENTS of durable goods in April decreased $6.9 billion or 3.6 percent to $185.9 billion, following a 0.3 percent
March decrease. This is the fourth consecutive decrease and the largest since February 2000. Year to date, shipments for 2001
are 5.2 percent below the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $3.3 billion or 6.2 percent to $49.1 billion; nondefense aircraft and parts
decreased $1.2 billion or 13.8 percent to $7.2 billion. Computers and electronic products, down four consecutive months,
decreased $2.1 billion or 5.1 percent to $40.2 billion. Machinery, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.8 billion or 3.1
percent to $24.2 billion. Primary metals, down ten consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 3.5 percent to $11.6 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS for durable goods in April decreased $1.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $587.1 billion, following a 0.3
percent March increase. Computers and electronic products, led by semiconductors, had the largest decrease, $2.7 billion or
1.8 percent to $144.5 billion; this is the fifth consecutive decrease. Machinery, down four consecutive months, decreased $0.4
billion or 0.7 percent to $62.9 billion. Transportation increased $3.3 billion or 1.1 percent to $288.8 billion; nondefense aircraft
and parts increased $1.9 billion or 1.3 percent to $152.1 billion.

e@ INVENTORIES for durable goods in April increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $308.0 billion, following a 0.9 percent
March decrease. Transportation equipment had the largest increase, $1.0 billion or 1.4 percent to $76.2 billion; nondefense
aircraft and parts increased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $31.1 billion.

¢ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in April decreased $1.7 billion or 20.4 percent to $6.5 billion.
Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 2.4 percent to $5.7 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $125.4
billion. Inventories increased $0.6 billion or 3.5 percent to $19.1 billion.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in April decreased $3.6 billion or 5.2 percent to $65.2
billion. Shipments decreased $3.2 billion or 4.7 percent to $65.3 billion. Unfilled orders decreased slightly to $279.6 billion.
Inventories decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $131.6 billion.

@ REVISED MARCH DATA Revised seasonally adjusted March figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$346.6 billion (revised from $347.8 billion); new orders, $348.3 billion (revised from $349.6 billion); unfilled orders, $588.3
billion (revised from $588.4 billion); and total inventories, $481.5 billion (revised from $481.7 billion).

NOTE: The data in this press release are consistent with the revised historical series released May 21, 2001. The revised historical series are
available on our internet site.

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods data will be published June 5, 2001 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for May is scheduled for June 26, 2001 at 8:30 AM. This report is
available on the day of issue through STAT-USA/Internet at www stat-usa.gov.


Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
Products Products
Shipments and Three Month New Orders and Three Month
Moving Average Moving Average
Bilions Of Dollars Billions Of Dollars
50000 50000 55000 55000
47000 ‘\ 47000
YN 50000 50000
44000 fo 44000
yf \ 45000 45000
41000 41000
40000 40000
38000 38000
35000 35000 35000 35000
eae2e22989888n 5 aanaooegegeeen ce
ee gg esse egg ess a a ee ae
| BS 2S FBRSPEREE BS2S 8 28578 83 2
— — Shipments ‘Average — New Orders Average
f Computers and Electronic Computers and Electronic
\ Products Products
Total Inventories and Three Month Ratios of Unfilled Orders and Total
Moving Average Inventories to Shipments
Billions Of Dollars US Ratios UO/S Ratios
65000 65000 45 45
4.0 4.0
A 3.5 3.5
60000 60000
3.0 3.0
2.5 25
55000 $5000
s a ee | "
50000 50000 1.0 1.0
g883283838 855 ae 2988888 8855
S28 GF F525 G2 F B25 82 S25 8 BE
— Inventories Average —_er 1/5 uo/s
NU

Note: All charts based on seasonally adjusted current dollars.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS AND NEW ORDERS
(Millions of Dollars)

‘Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted ©
‘Monthly Percent Change ‘Monthly Percent
Item Change
Apr Mar Feb Mar ; Feb - Jan- Apr Mar Apr Apr
2001? 2001‘ 2001 Apr? Mar Feb 20017 2001 2000 | 01/00
Total
185,918] 192,854] 193,401 -3.6| -0.3] 0.0] 179,748] -9.4
184/736] 194/559] 190,326 -5.0| #22 43.9) 177,717 -10:3
Excluding transportatio
Shipments 136,808] 140,480] 143,316 “2.6 -2.0] 1.3] 130,406] 151,963] 142,436 8.4
New Orders. 132/363] 136,823] 140,826 33 “2:8 +20] 127/428] 146,753] 144/226] -11.6
Excluding defens.
Shipments 179,381] 186,130] 186,885) -3.6| -0.4] +0.1] 173,544/ 203,330] 192,148 -9.7
New Orders. 177.217] 185,238] 183/395 -4.3| +1.0 +28] 170,908] 199,783] 192.537) -11.2
Primary metals:
Shipments 11,588] 12,004) 12,178 -3.5| -1.4] -1.4[ 11,881] 12,639] 14,209] -16.4
New Orders... 11/388} 11,637] 12/012 224 “3.1 +0.2] 11/537] 12,400] 13,831) -16.6
Fabricated metal products:
‘Shipments 20,106] 20,346 20,587 “1.2 -1.2| -0.5} 20,021) 21,065] 21,734
New Orders. 19,823] 20,211) 20,247 “1.9 012 0.7] 19,873) 21,365] 22,103
Machinery:
Shipments 24,181] 24,9511 25,583 “3.1 -2.5) -3.4| 24,143! 27,733)
New Orders...... 23/734) 24/407] 25,344 -2:8 3.7| 2.4] 23,760] 27,034]
Computers and electronic products:
Shipments 40,239] 42,386) 43,419 5.1 2.4) 2.1] 34,663| 48,048 11.8
New Orders. 37,574] 41/216] 42,233 8.8 “2.4 +4:9) 33/199] 45,554) “16.9
Computers and related product:
Shipments 10,279] 10,358) 10,562 -0.8 -1.9 6.2 8,143] 13,151 9,467] -14.0
New Orders 10,228} 10.561) 10,764 “3.2 1.9 3.4] 8,038] 13,257 91113) -11.8
Communications equipment:
Shipments... 7,624] 8,278] 8,325 7.9 0.6 -0.3 6,299] 9,427 8,211] -23.3
New Orders 7,560] 7/820]—7,763 “3.3 +0.7 -19.8] 6,938} 8,920] 9,801} -37.5
Semiconductors:
shipments 8,028] 8,645 9,080| 74 48 3.4] 7,317] 9,079] 7,517 “2.7
New Orders. 5.874] 8,627 8,978 31.9) -3.9] +91.4] 6,726] 7,851 6,223] +8.1
Electrical equipment, appliances,
and components:
Shipments. 11,281] 11,404] 1.5 14 0.5] 10,532] 12,223 +03
New Orders. 10,740] 11,459} +0.3 6.3 +6.7| 10,035} 11,504) 4.4
Transportation equipment
Shipments. 49,110) 52,374] 50,085 6.2 +4.6| +3.8) 49,342 58,707] 55,927) -11.8
New Orders. 52,373] 57,736] 49,500) 9:3) +166 +9.9] 50,289] 65,500] 53,804] 6.5
Motor vehicles and parts:
Shipments. 35,057| 36,961] 34,544) 5.2 +7.0 +16] 35,9111 41,432| 41,650] -13.8
New Orders. 35,149] 36,887} 34,450) “4.7 474 +22) 36,646| 41/155] 40,681] -12.4
Aircraft and parts:
Shipments. 9,496] 10,562} 10,938) “10.1 -3.4]  +16.9 9,047) 11,847 9,627 -6.0
New Orders. 11/440] 12/724) 10,829) 10.1] +175] +48.6 9,679] 14/552 9/580] +1.0
Alll other durable goods:
Shipments. 29,584] 29,512} 30,145 +0.2 24 +10) 29,166] 30,255] 31,267 6.7
New Orders. 29/067) 28,612) 29/531 +16 “3.1 +2.7| 29,024) 28/896] 31,723 8.5
Capital qaods:?
shipments. 70,937] 74,316) 75,357) “45 “1.4 0.1] 65,366) 83,593] 71,543
New Orders... 71,736] 77,005) 73,934) -6.8| +42 +35] 63/574] 87/552] 70,814
Nondefense capital goods:
Shipments 65,257| 68,495] 69,722 47 -1.8] +0.2] 59,936} 77,296] 66,149 “9.4
New Orders. 65,239| 68,839] 68,010 “5.2 +12 +0.3] 58,273] 76,829] 67,231] -13.3
Defense capital goods:
‘Shipments 5,680] 5,821 5,635) 2.4] +33) Ad 5,430 6,297 5,394] 40.7
New Orders. 6,497 8,166] 5,924 -20.4,  +37.8)  +65.0 5.301] 10,723] 3583] +47.9
{NA} Not Available * Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the totals for the poriod and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories.
are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

? Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey orror and rvision. One major component of survey error is
which includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated.
ey ‘methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(00),
“Manutacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2000.”

as of the end of the p.

vipmont: construction machinery:

es and generator
: devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communi ont;
Search and navigation equipment; electromedical, , and control instruments; electrical equipment: other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks;
aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; and institutional furniture; and medical equipment and supplies.

|, and gas field machinery: industrial
ment;

2 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance: farm machinery and o
working machinery; tur

Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft;

les, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.



3

Table 2. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' UNFILLED ORDERS AND TOTAL INVENTORIES
(Millions of Dollars)

Seasonally Adjusted

Not Seasonally Adiusted *

Monthly Percent Chan Monthly Percent
Item Change
Apr Mar Feb Mar - Feb - Jan - Apr Mar Apr ‘Apr
2001 ? 2001‘ 2001 Apr ? Mar ‘ Feb 2001? 2001" 2000 01/00
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Unfilled Orders. 587,135} 588,317| 586,612 -0.2 +03 -0.5] 94,746] 596,777] 550,926] +8.0
Total Inventories. 307/951] 307,621] 310,564 +01 -0.9) -0.2| 308,325] 305,166] 300/802) +2'5
Excluding transportation:
Unfilled Orders. 298,368] 302,813] 306,470 15 1.2 -0.8] 302,131] 305,109] 304,931 0.9
Total Inventories. 231,771} 232/475| 234/081 -0.3 0.7 0.0] 232,445] 230,863) 222,467) +4.5
Excluding defense:
Unfilled Orders. 444,345] 446,509] 447,401 0.5 -0.2 -0.8] 447,712] 450,348] 429,965] +4.1
Total Inventories 285,532] 285,555] 287,715 0.0 08 -0.1] 286,076) 283,633} 277,786] +3.0
Primary metals:
Unfilled Orders.. 18,561] 18,761] 19,128 Ad “1.9 0.8] 19,371] 19,715] 22,885] -15.4
Total Inventorie: 21,956] 22,065] 22,422 -0.5| “1.6 -0.6] 21,802] 21,906] 22,639) 3.
Fabricated metal products:
Unfilled Orders. 42,902] 43,037 “0.7 -0.3 -0.8] 43,054] 43,202] 44,016] 2.2
Total Inventor 35,364] 35,426 -0.3| -0.2 -0.5} 35,449] 35/574] 34/361] _+3.2
Machinery:
Unfilled Orders. 62,937] 63,384) 63,928 0.7 -0.9 -0.4] 63,935] 64,318] 61,762] +3.5
Total Inventorie: 51,791] 51.877] 51/558 0.2 +0.6| -0.1] 52,014) 51,938] 48/9821 +6.2
Computers and electronic products:
Unfilled Orders. 144,465] 147,130] 148,300) “1.8 0.8 -0.8| 145,724] 147,188] 144,170) 41.1
Total Inventorie: 59,668] | 61,243 0:4] “2.2, +0.7| 59,747) 58,113] 56,385] +7.9
Computers and related produc
Unfilled Orders, 19.592] 19.583) 10,380 0.8 +2.0 +2.0] 10,224] 10,329 9,369) +91
Total Inventories 9,613} 9,490] 9,521 +13 -0.3| +16 9,622 8,906] 8.409] +14.4
Communications equipment:
Unfilled Order: 48,640] 48,704] 49,162, “0.1 -0.9 -1.1] 48,877] 49,238] 45,306] +7.9
Total inventorie: 12,288] 13/189 41 -6.8 +0.4[ 11,631] 11,930] 12/621 78
Semiconductors:
Unfilled Orders. 20,541) 22,695] 22,713) 9.5 0.1 -0.4] 20,889] 21,480} 26,072] -19.9
Total Inventorie: 8,502] 8,542] 8/638 05 Wa +27 8,696} —-8.417| 7,226) +20.3
Electrical equipment, appliances.
and components:
Unfilled Order 18,434] 18,767) 19,308 1.8 2.8 +0.3} 18,571] 19,068] 18,557] +0.1
Total Inventorie 16,046] 16,088] 16,135 03 0.3 +0.6] 16,316] 16,137] 14,889] +9.6
Transportation equipment:
Unfilled Orders. 288,767! 285,504 280,142 +14 +19 -0.2] 292,615] 291,668] 245,995] +19.0
Total Inventories...... 76,180] 75,146] 76,483 +14 17 -1.0] 75,880] 74/303) “78,335 “3.4
Motor vehicles and parts:
Unfilled Order: 12,971] 12,879] 12,953 +0.7 -0. 0.7] 13,204] 13,469} 15,479] -14.7
Total Inventorie: 22/491 1/882) 22/180 +28 “1:3 0.9] 22,230] 21,765] 22,497 “1.2
Aircraft and part
Unfilled Order: 197,377] 195,433] 193,271 +10 +14 -0.1] 198,751] 198,119] 167,040] +19.0
Total inventor 41,205] 41/382) 42/445) -0.4] “25 1.2] 41,190] 40,954] 43/916 “6.2
All other durable good:
Unfilled Order: 11,352) 11,869] 12,769) 4.4 -7.0) -4.6] 11,476] 11,618] 13,541] -15.2
Total inventorie 47,061] 47,176] 47,297 -0.2 -0.3 0.2) 47,117| 47,195] 46,211] +2.0
Capital goods:
tes Order 404,980] 404,181] 401,492 +0.2 40.7 -0.4| 409,511] 411,303] 360,951] +13.5
Total Inventorie 150,687] 150,400] 151,748) +0.2 -0.9) -0.2] 151,077) 148,358] 146,484] = +3.1
Nondefense capital goods:
Unfilled Order 279,628] 279,646] 279,302 0.0 +01 -0.6] 280,959} 282,622] 255,350] +10.0
Total inventorie: 131,625 1986] 132/905 0.3] -0.7| -0.1] 132,027} 130,363] 127/085] +3.9
Defense capital
nfile 125,352) 124,535] 122,190 +0.7 +19 +0.2) 128,552] 128,681) 105,601} +21.7
‘otal inventors 19,062] 18,414] 18,843 +35 “2:3 -1.1] 18,050] 17/995} 19,399 “1.8

‘See footnotes at end of Table 1