U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-12

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

January 27, 2005

CB-05-12

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

December 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in December increased $1.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $200.3 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.8 percent November increase. Excluding

transportation, new orders increased 2.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.2 percent. New orders for 2004

were 11.6 percent above prior year.

Computers and electronic products, up following two consecutive decreases, had the largest increase, $2.1 billion or 6.4 percent

to $34.5 billion. 

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in December increased $4.2 billion or 2.1 percent to $204.5 billion and was at

the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992. This followed a 0.1 percent November increase. 

Shipments for 2004 were 10.5 percent above prior year.

Transportation equipment, up following three consecutive decreases, had the largest increase, $1.7 billion or 3.3 percent to $54.6

billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in December, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $2.8

billion or 0.5 percent to $551.9 billion and was also at the highest level since the series began in 1992. This followed a 1.1

percent November increase.

Computers and electronic products, up nine of the last eleven months, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 0.9 percent to

$141.9 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series began in 1992.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in December, down following twelve consecutive increases, decreased $0.1

billion to $282.5 billion. This followed a 0.9 percent November increase.

Transportation equipment, down following two consecutive increases, had the largest decrease, $0.6 billion or 0.9 percent to

$69.1 billion. 

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in December decreased $0.7 billion or 8.8 percent to $7.7

billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $8.1 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to

$148.4 billion. Inventories increased 0.1 percent to $19.8 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in December decreased $1.4 billion or 1.9 percent to

$68.4 billion. Shipments increased $2.1 billion or 3.3 percent to $66.2 billion. Unfilled orders increased $2.2 billion or 0.9

percent to $244.3 billion. Inventories decreased $0.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $110.6 billion.

! REVISED NOVEMBER DATA Revised seasonally adjusted November figures for all manufacturing industries are: new

orders, $377.9 billion (revised from $377.4 billion); shipments, $379.1 billion (revised from $379.0 billion); unfilled orders,

$549.1 billion (revised from $548.8 billion); and total inventories, $470.1 billion (revised from $469.7 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published February 3, 2005 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for

January is scheduled for February 24 at 8:30 A.M. EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Dec Nov Oct Nov - Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Dec 2 Nov r Oct 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 204,504 200,300 200,030 2.1 0.1 0.3 206,624 197,023 189,282 2,371,474 2,150,638 10.3

 New Orders 4

.............................. 200,347 199,103 195,526 0.6 1.8 -1.0 207,024 195,038 189,999 2,330,314 2,101,512 10.9

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 149,888 147,428 146,849 1.7 0.4 0.9 153,945 144,617 138,487 1,723,014 1,531,968 12.5

 New Orders 4.............................. 144,500 141,537 142,873 2.1 -0.9 -1.4 147,707 138,342 132,055 1,669,774 1,475,977 13.1

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 195,101 190,761 190,250 2.3 0.3 0.2 195,882 187,308 178,532 2,254,642 2,042,696 10.4

 New Orders 4

.............................. 191,482 189,268 181,823 1.2 4.1 -2.1 192,342 185,472 173,301 2,206,601 1,980,158 11.4

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 138,644 136,573 137,392 1.5 -0.6 0.8 141,668 134,342 129,448 1,613,327 1,456,316 10.8

 New Orders 4.............................. 141,429 142,678 140,124 -0.9 1.8 -0.8 149,316 140,055 136,535 1,657,255 1,478,053 12.1

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 15,121 14,892 14,478 1.5 2.9 -0.7 13,508 14,156 10,278 165,655 131,307 26.2

 New Orders.............................. 14,982 14,936 14,199 0.3 5.2 -1.7 13,682 14,160 10,737 168,463 132,850 26.8

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 23,042 23,251 22,903 -0.9 1.5 -1.3 21,509 22,971 19,569 272,011 245,469 10.8

 New Orders.............................. 23,475 23,491 23,740 -0.1 -1.0 2.2 21,485 22,926 19,699 278,799 246,590 13.1

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 26,378 25,017 26,063 5.4 -4.0 2.7 26,149 23,149 22,509 294,139 253,516 16.0

 New Orders.............................. 26,694 25,686 26,977 3.9 -4.8 3.0 25,997 23,923 23,142 301,247 253,978 18.6

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 40,153 40,259 40,217 -0.3 0.1 3.4 48,350 40,208 45,005 469,472 418,651 12.1

 New Orders 4.............................. 34,496 32,414 34,382 6.4 -5.7 -6.8 43,272 31,987 38,337 396,254 358,127 10.6

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 9,430 9,286 9,565 1.6 -2.9 8.5 12,414 8,489 11,090 105,708 93,449 13.1

 New Orders.............................. 10,154 9,334 8,817 8.8 5.9 -9.8 13,072 8,821 11,024 106,141 94,130 12.8 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,786 6,892 7,096 -1.5 -2.9 3.0 8,528 7,165 8,907 83,257 76,761 8.5

 New Orders.............................. 7,237 6,141 10,222 17.8 -39.9 6.8 8,643 6,505 6,168 87,624 81,783 7.1

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 6,942 7,302 7,236 -4.9 0.9 5.9 7,248 7,698 6,370 85,088 70,863 20.1

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,919 9,056 8,940 -1.5 1.3 0.2 9,262 9,176 9,057 106,415 101,415 4.9

 New Orders.............................. 8,763 9,334 8,896 -6.1 4.9 -3.1 8,706 9,509 8,534 107,966 101,038 6.9

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 54,616 52,872 53,181 3.3 -0.6 -1.1 52,679 52,406 50,795 648,460 618,670 4.8

 New Orders.............................. 55,847 57,566 52,653 -3.0 9.3 0.1 59,317 56,696 57,944 660,540 625,535 5.6

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 39,606 37,939 37,433 4.4 1.4 -2.2 35,654 37,134 34,010 461,680 442,840 4.3

 New Orders.............................. 39,534 37,800 36,913 4.6 2.4 -3.9 36,056 37,225 34,672 462,779 444,327 4.2 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,842 5,503 6,253 6.2 -12.0 -0.8 7,015 5,675 6,534 71,144 67,305 5.7

 New Orders.............................. 8,006 9,615 5,837 -16.7 64.7 5.0 10,853 9,608 8,602 83,213 60,882 36.7

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,186 3,376 3,487 -5.6 -3.2 1.8 3,841 3,428 4,153 43,723 39,856 9.7

 New Orders.............................. 2,139 3,158 3,303 -32.3 -4.4 37.2 3,825 2,848 5,838 35,629 44,662 -20.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 36,275 34,953 34,248 3.8 2.1 -1.0 35,167 34,957 32,069 415,322 381,610 8.8

 New Orders.............................. 36,090 35,676 34,679 1.2 2.9 -0.7 34,565 35,837 31,606 417,045 383,394 8.8

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 74,273 72,282 74,127 2.8 -2.5 2.4 83,275 69,726 76,896 859,793 775,078 10.9

 New Orders.............................. 76,076 78,180 77,539 -2.7 0.8 -0.3 89,845 75,449 82,675 892,706 794,164 12.4

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 66,223 64,130 65,798 3.3 -2.5 2.2 74,277 61,397 67,929 760,143 683,195 11.3

 New Orders.............................. 68,408 69,768 64,911 -1.9 7.5 -3.2 76,967 67,151 67,808 783,327 689,340 13.6

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 63,409 62,063 63,207 2.2 -1.8 2.4 70,306 59,215 64,516 730,348 652,339 12.0

 New Orders......................... 64,196 63,055 62,482 1.8 0.9 -4.0 69,924 60,502 63,025 741,074 663,352 11.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,050 8,152 8,329 -1.3 -2.1 3.5 8,998 8,329 8,967 99,650 91,883 8.5

 New Orders.............................. 7,668 8,412 12,628 -8.8 -33.4 18.1 12,878 8,298 14,867 109,379 104,824 4.3

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Dec Nov Oct Nov - Oct - Sep - Dec Nov Dec 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Dec 2 Nov r Oct 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 551,866 549,081 542,976 0.5 1.1 0.5 546,344 538,696 502,416 8.7

 Total Inventories....................... 282,470 282,586 280,101 0.0 0.9 0.8 275,253 283,771 255,969 7.5

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 288,121 286,567 285,156 0.5 0.5 1.2 282,983 281,973 251,135 12.7

 Total Inventories....................... 213,384 212,861 211,399 0.2 0.7 0.9 208,627 213,423 190,823 9.3

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 386,019 382,696 376,887 0.9 1.5 -0.3 381,506 377,798 344,459 10.8

 Total Inventories....................... 257,604 258,092 255,862 -0.2 0.9 0.8 250,891 259,274 232,321 8.0

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 551,866 549,081 542,976 0.5 1.1 0.5 546,344 538,696 502,416 8.7

 Total Inventories....................... 221,482 220,878 218,656 0.3 1.0 0.9 216,336 222,197 200,434 7.9

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 19,633 19,772 19,728 -0.7 0.2 -1.4 18,810 18,636 16,002 17.5

 Total Inventories....................... 21,589 21,303 20,823 1.3 2.3 3.3 21,862 21,519 17,420 25.5

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 46,340 45,907 45,667 0.9 0.5 1.9 44,809 44,833 38,021 17.9

 Total Inventories....................... 35,496 35,088 34,664 1.2 1.2 0.9 34,968 34,784 30,504 14.6

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 51,201 50,885 50,216 0.6 1.3 1.9 49,990 50,142 42,882 16.6

 Total Inventories....................... 46,001 45,674 44,994 0.7 1.5 0.2 44,841 46,090 40,512 10.7

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ 141,939 140,654 141,197 0.9 -0.4 1.0 141,026 138,856 129,156 9.2

 Total Inventories....................... 49,130 49,529 49,648 -0.8 -0.2 1.1 47,446 50,153 45,945 3.3

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 9,083 8,359 8,311 8.7 0.6 -8.3 9,238 8,580 8,805 4.9

 Total Inventories....................... 6,400 6,402 6,412 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 6,013 6,754 5,639 6.6 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 54,891 54,440 55,191 0.8 -1.4 6.0 54,136 54,021 49,769 8.8

 Total Inventories....................... 11,056 10,975 11,054 0.7 -0.7 2.4 10,701 11,341 10,679 0.2

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders

4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 15,367 15,523 15,245 -1.0 1.8 -0.3 14,966 15,522 13,415 11.6

 Total Inventories....................... 12,885 12,920 12,993 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 12,364 12,798 11,949 3.5

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 263,745 262,514 257,820 0.5 1.8 -0.2 263,361 256,723 251,281 4.8

 Total Inventories....................... 69,086 69,725 68,702 -0.9 1.5 0.2 66,626 70,348 65,146 2.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,736 14,808 14,947 -0.5 -0.9 -3.4 14,719 14,317 13,620 8.1

 Total Inventories....................... 21,641 21,987 21,955 -1.6 0.1 0.0 20,757 22,049 19,604 5.9 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 116,484 114,320 110,208 1.9 3.7 -0.4 117,140 113,302 105,071 11.5

 Total Inventories....................... 23,178 23,665 23,044 -2.1 2.7 -0.2 22,168 24,171 22,997 -3.6

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 53,813 54,860 55,078 -1.9 -0.4 -0.3 52,676 52,692 60,770 -13.3

 Total Inventories....................... 12,295 11,901 11,840 3.3 0.5 0.9 12,067 11,886 11,296 6.8

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,641 13,826 13,103 -1.3 5.5 3.4 13,382 13,984 11,659 14.8

 Total Inventories....................... 48,283 48,347 48,277 -0.1 0.1 0.8 47,146 48,079 44,493 6.0

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 392,774 390,971 385,073 0.5 1.5 0.9 390,710 384,140 357,797 9.2

 Total Inventories....................... 130,422 130,756 129,087 -0.3 1.3 0.3 126,820 132,608 121,399 4.5

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 244,344 242,159 236,521 0.9 2.4 -0.4 242,731 240,041 219,547 10.6

 Total Inventories....................... 110,573 110,929 109,534 -0.3 1.3 0.3 107,170 112,766 102,129 4.9

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 152,279 151,492 150,500 0.5 0.7 -0.5 150,010 150,392 139,284 7.7

 Total Inventories.................. 93,978 93,885 92,985 0.1 1.0 0.5 91,340 95,235 85,879 6.4

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 148,430 148,812 148,552 -0.3 0.2 3.0 147,979 144,099 138,250 7.0

 Total Inventories....................... 19,849 19,827 19,553 0.1 1.4 0.5 19,650 19,842 19,270 2.0

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 4,000 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 4,000 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 4,000 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.

2005 Release Dates for M3 Survey

Survey Month Advance 8:30 A.M. Preliminary 10:00 A.M.

Dec 2004 1/27/05 2/3/05

Jan 2005 2/24/05 3/4/05

Feb 2005 3/24/05 3/31/05

Mar 2005 4/27/05 5/3/05

Apr 2005 5/25/05 6/2/05

May 2005 6/24/05 7/5/05

Jun 2005 7/27/05 8/2/05

Jul 2005 8/24/05 8/30/05

Aug 2005 9/28/05 10/4/05

Sep 2005 10/27/05 11/3/05

Oct 2005 11/29/05 12/6/05

Nov 2005 12/23/05