U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Chris Savage or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-03

For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT

April 23, 2004

CB-04-64

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

March 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.3 billion or 3.4 percent to $192.7 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 3.8 percent February increase. Excluding

transportation, new orders increased 3.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.8 percent. Year-to-date, new

orders for 2004 were 11.1 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $2.0 billion or 3.6 percent to $57.0 billion. 

Fabricated metal products, up three of the last four months, increased $1.1 billion or 5.2 percent to $22.9 billion. This was the

largest percent increase in fabricated metal products since March 2000.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in March, up six of the last seven months, increased $6.0 billion or 3.2 percent

to $195.2 billion. This followed a 1.7 percent February increase. Year-to-date, shipments for 2004 were 9.8 percent above the

same period a year ago.

Fabricated metal products had the largest increase, $1.5 billion or 7.3 percent to $22.1 billion. This was the largest percent

increase since the current series began in 1992. Primary metals, up for the seventh consecutive month, increased $1.1 billion or

9.3 percent to $13.2 billion. This was the largest percent increase since the current series began in 1992.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in March, up seven of the last eight months, increased $4.3 billion or

0.8 percent to $514.5 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent February increase.

Machinery, up eight consecutive months, had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 2.4 percent to $46.6 billion. Transportation

equipment increased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $250.5 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in March, up four consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent

to $264.7 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent February increase.

Primary metals, up five consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.3 billion or 1.4 percent to $18.0 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in March decreased $0.6 billion or 6.1 percent to $9.7 billion. 

Shipments decreased $1.1 billion or 11.6 percent to $8.2 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.5 billion or 1.1 percent to $141.7

billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $19.8 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in March increased $1.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $62.5

billion. Shipments increased $1.4 billion or 2.4 percent to $61.8 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to

$221.1 billion. Inventories decreased $0.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $104.9 billion.

! REVISED February DATA Revised seasonally adjusted February figures for all manufacturing industries are: new orders,

$345.1 billion (revised from $343.0 billion); shipments, $347.9 billion (revised from $346.8 billion); unfilled orders, $510.1

billion (revised from $509.0 billion); and total inventories, $442.3 billion (revised from $442.4 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published May 4, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. The advance report on durable goods for April is

scheduled for May 26 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Mar Feb Jan Feb - Jan - Dec - Mar Feb Mar Change

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Mar 2 Feb r Jan 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 195,225 189,199 186,115 3.2 1.7 -1.0 216,573 184,523 189,651 567,266 516,545 9.8

 New Orders 4

.............................. 192,712 186,416 179,506 3.4 3.8 -2.6 216,222 184,279 186,435 568,095 511,443 11.1

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 139,255 133,744 134,600 4.1 -0.6 -0.2 152,418 128,243 133,263 400,333 361,474 10.8

 New Orders 4.............................. 135,708 131,400 129,947 3.3 1.1 0.7 149,077 128,636 127,518 397,188 351,939 12.9

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 185,362 178,354 176,709 3.9 0.9 -1.1 205,774 173,936 180,059 538,114 491,795 9.4

 New Orders 4.............................. 181,834 175,149 169,779 3.8 3.2 -2.2 201,748 173,111 172,377 531,987 478,989 11.1

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 131,745 127,927 127,015 3.0 0.7 0.3 145,931 124,715 129,456 383,647 351,021 9.3

 New Orders 4.............................. 136,072 131,867 126,901 3.2 3.9 -1.6 152,845 131,346 132,296 404,577 362,750 11.5

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 13,156 12,033 11,809 9.3 1.9 2.1 14,176 12,277 11,532 38,001 33,592 13.1

 New Orders.............................. 13,553 12,638 12,173 7.2 3.8 4.4 14,676 13,515 11,006 40,678 33,850 20.2

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 22,050 20,542 20,930 7.3 -1.9 -0.6 23,040 20,293 20,911 62,559 59,981 4.3

 New Orders.............................. 22,907 21,772 22,050 5.2 -1.3 0.9 24,201 21,971 20,854 67,237 59,974 12.1

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 23,448 22,473 22,654 4.3 -0.8 -0.5 26,791 21,315 23,220 67,978 61,223 11.0

 New Orders.............................. 24,549 23,807 22,935 3.1 3.8 -4.5 28,016 23,138 23,418 72,537 62,528 16.0

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 38,189 37,630 37,908 1.5 -0.7 1.2 43,991 35,293 37,467 111,712 95,123 17.4

 New Orders 4.............................. 32,093 32,044 31,199 0.2 2.7 4.2 37,635 30,653 32,304 95,637 83,172 15.0

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,281 8,178 8,396 1.3 -2.6 -1.0 9,867 6,691 7,925 23,902 19,793 20.8

 New Orders.............................. 8,116 8,114 7,927 0.0 2.4 -8.7 9,613 6,844 8,099 23,125 19,700 17.4 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,819 6,926 7,086 -1.5 -2.3 4.9 8,350 6,403 7,283 20,485 17,350 18.1

 New Orders.............................. 6,678 7,304 6,855 -8.6 6.5 64.8 8,494 7,344 8,421 21,796 21,577 1.0

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 6,840 6,723 6,495 1.7 3.5 7.4 7,265 6,875 6,056 20,101 16,831 19.4

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,590 8,457 8,543 1.6 -1.0 -1.0 9,408 8,023 8,978 24,784 24,251 2.2

 New Orders.............................. 8,888 8,819 8,563 0.8 3.0 3.8 9,604 8,662 9,059 25,793 24,573 5.0

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 55,970 55,455 51,515 0.9 7.6 -2.9 64,155 56,280 56,388 166,933 155,071 7.6

 New Orders.............................. 57,004 55,016 49,559 3.6 11.0 -10.3 67,145 55,643 58,917 170,907 159,504 7.1

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 40,369 38,863 36,944 3.9 5.2 -3.9 46,242 40,179 39,648 121,383 113,574 6.9

 New Orders.............................. 40,590 39,174 36,940 3.6 6.0 -4.3 46,431 40,652 39,433 122,470 114,100 7.3 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,886 5,635 5,200 4.5 8.4 -2.3 7,199 5,610 7,044 16,730 16,509 1.3

 New Orders.............................. 6,126 5,483 4,114 11.7 33.3 -32.5 7,271 5,125 4,340 16,166 12,815 26.1

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,907 4,864 3,528 -19.7 37.9 1.2 4,176 4,467 3,649 11,553 9,016 28.1

 New Orders.............................. 2,626 3,634 2,417 -27.7 50.4 -36.0 4,217 3,388 6,360 10,596 12,092 -12.4

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 33,822 32,609 32,756 3.7 -0.4 -2.1 35,012 31,042 31,155 95,299 87,304 9.2

 New Orders.............................. 33,718 32,320 33,027 4.3 -2.1 -1.0 34,945 30,697 30,877 95,306 87,842 8.5

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 69,993 69,650 68,244 0.5 2.1 -0.1 80,409 65,594 70,333 204,485 180,775 13.1

 New Orders.............................. 72,189 71,533 67,409 0.9 6.1 -3.5 85,032 68,639 74,826 215,735 191,484 12.7

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 61,776 60,353 60,170 2.4 0.3 -0.4 71,363 56,433 62,204 179,500 159,638 12.4

 New Orders.............................. 62,492 61,208 58,564 2.1 4.5 -2.7 72,091 58,585 62,393 183,447 163,175 12.4

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 59,094 57,645 58,251 2.5 -1.0 0.5 67,922 53,936 58,804 172,284 152,316 13.1

 New Orders......................... 60,443 59,037 57,441 2.4 2.8 -0.4 69,451 56,958 61,368 177,763 159,131 11.7

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,217 9,297 8,074 -11.6 15.1 2.0 9,046 9,161 8,129 24,985 21,137 18.2

 New Orders.............................. 9,697 10,325 8,845 -6.1 16.7 -8.1 12,941 10,054 12,433 32,288 28,309 14.1

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Mar Feb Jan Feb - Jan - Dec - Mar Feb Mar 2004/

2004 2 2004 r 2004 Mar 2 Feb r Jan 2004 2 2004 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 514,451 510,124 506,184 0.8 0.8 0.0 523,346 516,432 492,408 6.3

 Total Inventories....................... 264,678 264,426 263,276 0.1 0.4 0.1 264,122 267,427 267,955 -1.4

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 263,912 260,619 256,240 1.3 1.7 0.7 268,091 264,167 243,559 10.1

 Total Inventories....................... 196,584 196,282 195,381 0.2 0.5 -0.1 196,755 198,905 200,803 -2.0

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 353,923 350,611 347,093 0.9 1.0 -0.1 358,433 355,194 340,159 5.4

 Total Inventories....................... 240,309 240,220 239,215 0.0 0.4 0.2 240,130 243,059 245,732 -2.3

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 514,451 510,124 506,184 0.8 0.8 0.0 523,346 516,432 492,408 6.3

 Total Inventories....................... 206,131 206,075 205,408 0.0 0.3 -0.1 205,244 207,939 210,814 -2.6

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 17,841 17,444 16,839 2.3 3.6 2.2 18,679 18,179 14,717 26.9

 Total Inventories....................... 17,997 17,740 17,507 1.4 1.3 1.2 17,899 17,766 18,999 -5.8

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 42,161 41,304 40,074 2.1 3.1 2.9 42,699 41,538 36,893 15.7

 Total Inventories....................... 31,183 31,338 30,955 -0.5 1.2 -0.2 31,655 31,757 32,088 -1.3

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 46,623 45,522 44,188 2.4 3.0 0.6 47,441 46,216 43,725 8.5

 Total Inventories....................... 42,316 42,143 41,857 0.4 0.7 0.7 42,636 42,964 42,633 0.0

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 131,200 130,456 129,319 0.6 0.9 -0.2 133,182 132,273 123,697 7.7

 Total Inventories....................... 46,767 46,817 46,936 -0.1 -0.3 -1.8 45,824 47,347 48,162 -4.9

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,154 8,319 8,383 -2.0 -0.8 -5.3 8,028 8,282 8,031 0.0

 Total Inventories....................... 5,925 5,952 6,028 -0.5 -1.3 -1.9 5,681 6,031 6,080 -6.6 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 50,268 50,409 50,031 -0.3 0.8 -0.5 51,080 50,936 48,974 4.3

 Total Inventories....................... 10,241 10,464 10,539 -2.1 -0.7 -4.7 10,046 10,623 11,800 -14.9

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,301 14,003 13,641 2.1 2.7 0.1 14,424 14,228 14,114 2.2

 Total Inventories....................... 12,295 12,266 12,483 0.2 -1.7 0.8 12,479 12,612 12,777 -2.3

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 250,539 249,505 249,944 0.4 -0.2 -0.8 255,255 252,265 248,849 2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 68,094 68,144 67,895 -0.1 0.4 0.6 67,367 68,522 67,152 0.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 14,014 13,793 13,482 1.6 2.3 0.0 14,707 14,518 12,659 16.2

 Total Inventories....................... 21,069 20,943 20,828 0.6 0.6 3.0 21,033 21,105 20,384 3.2 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 103,677 103,437 103,589 0.2 -0.1 -1.0 104,507 104,435 107,800 -3.1

 Total Inventories....................... 23,677 23,931 23,965 -1.1 -0.1 -0.2 23,330 23,940 25,341 -7.9

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 58,510 59,791 61,021 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 59,813 59,772 59,040 1.3

 Total Inventories....................... 11,647 11,497 11,509 1.3 -0.1 -1.1 11,393 11,756 10,218 11.5

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 11,786 11,890 12,179 -0.9 -2.4 2.3 11,666 11,733 10,413 12.0

 Total Inventories....................... 46,026 45,978 45,643 0.1 0.7 0.5 46,262 46,459 46,144 0.3

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 362,734 360,538 358,655 0.6 0.5 -0.2 369,047 364,424 349,420 5.6

 Total Inventories....................... 124,762 124,843 124,514 -0.1 0.3 -0.5 123,749 125,977 127,020 -2.6

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 221,052 220,336 219,481 0.3 0.4 -0.7 223,494 222,766 216,939 3.0

 Total Inventories....................... 104,946 105,138 105,061 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 104,200 106,288 109,098 -4.5

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 143,151 141,802 140,410 1.0 1.0 -0.6 144,763 143,234 135,086 7.2

 Total Inventories.................. 87,897 87,973 87,957 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 87,377 89,053 90,371 -3.3

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 141,682 140,202 139,174 1.1 0.7 0.6 145,553 141,658 132,481 9.9

 Total Inventories....................... 19,816 19,705 19,453 0.6 1.3 -0.5 19,549 19,689 17,922 9.1

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.