U.S. Department of Commerce | | | |
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Washington, D.C. 20233

Official Business
Penalty for Private Use, $300

POSTAGE ANDO FEES PAIL
US DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

COM-202

First Class Mail

PUBLICATION DATES FOR THE 1994 MONTHLY M3 SURVEY
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

Advance Report Regular Report

Report Release Dates Release Dates
Covering (8:30 a.m. release time) (10:00 a.m. release time)
December 1993 Thur., Jan. 27 Thurs., Feb. 3
January 1994 Thur., Feb. 24 Thurs., Mar. 3
February 1994 Wed., Mar. 23 Wed., Mar. 30
March 1994 Wed., Apr. 27 Wed., May 4
April 1994 Wed., May 25 Thurs., June 2
May 1994 Thur., June 23 Thur., June 30
June 1994 Wed., July 27 Wed., Aug. 3
July 1994 Wed., Aug. 24 Wed., Aug. 31
August 1994 Wed:; Sept. 28 — Weds; et. 5
September 1994 Wed., Oct. 26 Wed., Nov. 2
October 1994 Wed., Nov. 23 Fri., Dec. 2
November 1994 Fri., Dec. 23 Thur., Jan 5, 1995

The Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders press
release can be faxed to you on the day of issue at a cost of $120
per year. The fee is to cover the subscription service, wire
transmission, and administrative costs. If you wish to subscribe
to this service, or would like more information, please call
Sandy Sollinger at (301) 763-2604.


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | «ten.
N EWS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 mR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EST
Steve Andrews or Kathy Menth December 23, 1993
(301) 763-2502 or (301) 763-2575 CB93-216
M3-1(93)-11

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
November 1993
(All figures in text below are in scasonally adjusted current dollars)

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $2.8 billion or 2.0 percent to $139.4 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.6 percent increase in October and is the
fourth consecutive monthly increase. Year to date, 1993 new orders are 8.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

All major groups increased except electronic and other electrical equipment. The largest increase was in
transportation equipment, up $1.9 billion or 5.7 percent to $34.6 billion, due to aircraft and parts and motor vehicles and parts.
Excluding transportation equipment, new orders increased $0.9 billion or 0.9 percent. Industrial machinery and equipment
increased $1.1 billion or 4.5 percent to $26.1 billion, primarily due to computer and office equipment. Electronic and other
clectrical equipment declined $1.6 billion or 7.6 percent to $19.8 billion, due to electronic components.

Shipments

Shipments of durable goods in November increased $3.7 billion or 2.7 percent to $141.9 billion. This follows a 0.5
percent increase in October and is the fourth consecutive monthly increase. All major groups increased. Industrial machinery
and equipment had the largest increase, up $0.8 billion or 3.3 percent to $25.1 billion, with increases in nearly all categories.
Transportation equipment was up $0.5 billion or 1.4 percent to $36.8 billion, as increases in motor vehicle and parts and
railroad cquipment more than offset a decline in aircraft and parts. Year to date, durable goods shipments are 8.0 percent
above the same period a year ago.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for durable goods in November decreased $2.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $424.4 billion, the lowest level
since May 1988, This is the ninth consecutive monthly decline and twenty-eighth in the last thirty-three months.
Transportation cquipment, down for the nineteenth consecutive month, had the largest decrease, down $2.2 billion or L0
percent to $216.1 billion, primarily due to aircraft and parts. This is the lowest level since January 1989. Excluding
transportation equipment, unfilled orders were down $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent. Industrial machinery and equipment had the
largest increase, up $1.0 billion or 2.0 percent to $52.6 billion, primarily due to computer and office equipment.

Capital Goods Industries

Defense - New orders were down $0.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $5.2 billion. This follows a 17.3 percent decrease in
October. Shipments were down $0.5 billion or 7.2 percent to $7.1 billion, following a 1.4 percent increase in October. Unfilled
orders, down for ten consecutive months and twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, decreased $1.8 billion or 1.5 percent
to $117.7 billion, the lowest level since October 1983.

Nondefense - New orders increased $1.7 billion or 5.3 percent to $34.6 billion, following a 5.9 percent increase in
October. Shipments were up $1.1 billion or 3.3 percent to $34.8 billion, following a 1.0 percent increase in October. Unfilled
orders, down eighteen of the last twenty months, declined $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $199.7 billion, the lowest Jevel since
June 1989, Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.8 billion or 2.6 percent, the ninth increase in the last ten
months; shipments increased $1.3 billion or 4.7 percent, the seventh consecutive monthly increase; and unfilled orders increased
$0.8 billion or 1.0 percent, the tenth increase in the last twelve months.

(SEE BACK PAGE FOR 1994 RELEASE DATES)

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed
estimates plus nondurable goods and inventory data will be published January 5, 1994. The advance report on durable goods for December is scheduled
for January 27, 1994. ‘This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-
3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online information service-CENDATA. Further information about acocssing CENDATA can be obtained from
Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe (1-800-848-8199). ‘The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-763-2074)
can provide content information and general guidance.



Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted’
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Nov, Oct. Sept. Oct. Sept. Aug.- Noy. Oct. Nov.
i993? 1993" 1993 Nov. LE Sept. 1993? 1993" 1992 |Nov.93/92
DURABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 138,166 137,521 40.5 1 144,252 128,334 +10.9
‘New orders. . 136,591 133,176 +2.0 +2.6 +11 139,111 142,204 122,583 +135
Unfilled orders 426,945, 428,520 + 04 4 423,650 449,259 64
Excluding defense :
Shipments see 130,545 130,007 +04 2.0 134,882 136,753 120,221 +122
New orders, . 131,258 126,730 422 +3.6 +13 133,117 136,081 114,530 +162
Unfilled orders . . 307,377 306,664 -( +0.2 al 303,234 304,999 320,267 53
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. 112,213 109,805 110,177 42.2 03 +16 113,048 113,075 104,158 48.5
New orders 109,699 108,230 105,832 +14 42.3 40.1 109,865 111,027 18,407 +116
Primary metals :
Shipments 11,761 11,345 11,527 ol +18 11,599 11,851 TLAIT 44.3
‘New orders 11,954 11,703 11,517 42.1 +16 +43 11,438 11,573 10,960 +44
Unfilled orders . 22,625 22,432 22,074 +16 0.0 20,949 24,110 19,318 +85
Industrial machinery and equipment:
shipments . 25,137 24,334 24,393 0.2 24,522 23,723 21,046 +165
New orders. . 26,145 5,009 24,528 +4.5 42.0 +18 25,788 24,428 20,849 423.7
Unfilled orders 52,648 51,640 10,965 +13 52,589 $1,323 50,556 +4.0
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments . 20,405 19,901 20, 42.5 0.7 +2. 21,225 20,367 18,461 +15.0
New orders. 21,458 20,581 -1.6 +43 437 20,616 22,026 18,38. +121
Unfilled orders . 46,010 44,453 13 435 45,067 45,676 42,256 +67
‘Transportation equipment :
Shipments . . . 36,328 35,164 +14 433 +3.0 37,223 39,473 34,379 8.3
New orders. . 32,766 31,012 +5.7 +5.7 1d 35,502 36,568 29,3: +210
Unfilled orders . . 218,327 221,889 “10 -16 18 215,888 217,609 246,853 125
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES*
Total :
Shipments . 41,879 41315 40,889 +14 +10 41,624 40,025 39,201
New orders. . nee 39,795 38,149 37,438 +43 +19 40,297 37,775 34,174 +179
Unfilled orders... ... see 317,398 319,482 322,648 0.7 -10 316,925 318,252 347,561 -
Nondefense =
Shipments .... 34,804 33,694 33,375 +33 +1 34,212 32,526 31,088 +100
New orders . . 34,550 32,816 30,992 +53 +59 34,303 31,652 26,121 +313
Unfilled orders . . . sees 199,660 199,914 200,792 01 04 199,692 199,601 218,569 8.6
EICeE aircraft and parts :
Shipratnts 0... + 30,014 28,671 28,626 +47 +0.2 43.1 29,593 27,838 24,937 +18.7
New orders... . . 30,769 29,975 29,026 42.6 +33 43.4 30,693 29,146 24,575 424.9
Unfilled orders. oe 74,542 73,787 72,483 +10 +18 +0.6 74,574 73,474 70,532 +57
Defense :
Shipments . . wee 7,075 7,621 7514 - 14 7412 7,499 8,113 8.6
New orders... 0... ees 5,245 5,333 6,446 “17 173 5,994 6,123 8,053 25.6
Unfilled orders . . . vee 117,738 119,568 121,856 - 117,233 118,651 128,992 91

(NA) Not available." Revised, ee - -
" Shipmens and new orders are the totals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders are as ofthe end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar-manth variation:

* Based on advance sample

“The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense = ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, intemal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking machinery, special indust!
‘machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipment, refrigeration, healing and service industry machinery, electrical tarsmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipmen
‘complete aircraft, missiles, and space Vehicles, aircraft missiles, and space vehicle engines. and parts, ships and tank components, railroad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

‘Defense capital goods inclade': ordnance, ‘communication equipment, aircraft, missles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigation equipment

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago Nov. [ Nov. 1992- | Year ago Nov. | Nov. 1992-|~ Year ago Nov. [Nov. 1992-

Nov. 1992 | 1988-1992 | Oct. 1993 | Nov. 1992] 1988-1992] ct. 1993| Nov. 1992] 1988-1992] Oct. 1993

Durable goods ............ 02 02 03 03 04 04 0.0 01 00

Primary metals... 1: wd o.1 04 03 15 04 12 0 03 05

Industrial machinery and equipment’... 12 09 07 19 16 09 04 03 02
Electronic and other

electrical equipment vee 0.7 04 06 06 06 10 00 01 02

Transportation equipment <2. 22... 04 0.6 06 3 07 10 ol On 01

Nondefense capital goods . Ol 04 06 16 13 ll 03 02 01

Defense capital goods... 0.0 03 07 06 16 25 O.1 ou ol

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

160 160
New Orders
150 F- - ~~ er ered Shipments |] 150
140 F- - - - - 5 ee ee ee eee ee eee eee ee eee 1 140
130 130
120 120
110 i L L L L 1 L 1 L L L L 110
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1991 - Nov. 1993
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars

45 45

New Orders

40F------ 2 ee re re ee ee ee eee ee - eee Shipments |-] 40

25 bu r n L L n n n L L i mn Ll 95

Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Nov. 1991 -Nov. 1993

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.