UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | -255.
~ —WSsS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 BUR CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 August 23, 1996
For Questions - Kathy Menth or Gloria Cable CB96-142
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814

M3-1(96)-7

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
July 1996
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $2.7 billion or 1.6 percent to $172.6 billion, the Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.2 percent June decrease and is the second increase in the last three
months. Excluding transportation, new orders increased $2.7 billion or 2.1 percent to $130.9 billion, the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
Year-to-date new orders are 6.3 percent above the same period in 1995.

Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the second consecutive month, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 4.7 percent to $28.1
billion; widespread increases were led by communication equipment. Industrial machinery and equipment, up six of the last seven months,
increased $0.6 billion or 2.1 percent to $32.3 billion. This follows a 0.2 percent June increase. Primary metals, up three of the last four
months, increased $0.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $15.8 billion, following a 0.7 percent June decrease. Transportation equipment, down three
of the last four months, decreased slightly to $41.8 billion; a large decline in shipbuilding and tanks more than offset an increase in motor
vehicles and parts. This follows a 1.2 percent June decrease.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in July increased $1.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $168.0 billion, following a 0.4 percent June
decrease. This is the third increase in the last four months. Year-to-date shipments are 4.2 percent above the same period in 1995.

Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, had the largest increase, $0.9 billion or 2.3 percent to $39.5 billion, due to motor
vehicles and parts. This follows a 2.6 percent June decrease. Primary metals increased $0.5 billion or 3.7 percent to $15.2 billion. This
follows a 2.7 percent June decline and is the first increase since April. Industrial machinery and equipment, down for the first month since
April, decreased $0.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $31.4 billion, following a 1.8 percent June increase. Blectronic and other electrical equipment,
also down for the first month since April, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $26.8 billion. This follows a 1.1 percent June increase.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in July increased $4.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $480.0 billion. This follows a
0.7 percent June increase and is the tenth increase in the last eleven months.

Transportation equipment, up ten of the last eleven months, had the largest increase, $2.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $242.6 billion, due to
aircraft and parts. This follows a 1.3 percent June increase. Electronic and other electrical equipment, up for the first month since January,
increased $1.3 billion or 2.6 percent to $49.6 billion, following a 0.4 percent June decrease. Industrial machinery and equipment, up three
of the last four months, increased $0.9 billion or 1.3 percent to $72.7 billion. This follows a 0.4 percent June decrease. Primary metals, up
nine of the last ten months, increased $0.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $31.2 billion. This follows a 2.7 percent June increase.

® CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in July, down for the first month since April, decreased $3.0 billion or 36.5
percent to $5.1 billion; all categories except ordnance and accessories declined. This follows a 26.4 percent June increase. Shipments, also
down for the first month since April, decreased $0.4 billion or 5.9 percent to $5.8 billion, following a 3.4 percent June increase. Unfilled
orders, down for the first month since February, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $108.2 billion, following a 1.8 percent June increase.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in July, increased $3.1 billion or 7.2 percent to $46.0 billion. This
follows a 4.6 percent June decrease and is the second increase in the last three months. Shipments, down for the first month since April,
decreased $0.9 billion or 2.0 percent to $42.1 billion. This follows a 0.3 percent June increase. Unfilled orders, up two of the last three
months, increased $3.9 billion or 1.6 percent to $246.1 billion. This follows a slight June decline. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders
increased $1.4 billion or 3.6 percent to $38.7 billion, the second consecutive monthly increase; shipments, down for the first month since April,
decreased $1.0 billion or 2.7 percent to $37.0 billion, following a 3.4 percent June increase; and unfilled orders, up for the first month since
February, increased $1.7 billion or 1.8 percent to $98.9 billion.

@ REVISED JUNE DATA Revised seasonally adjusted June figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $308.3 billion (revised
from $308.2); new orders, $311.6 billion (revised from $311.2); unfilled orders, $499.2 billion (revised from $499.0); and total inventories,
$434.2 billion (revised from $434.1).

OUR PRESS RELEASE INTERNET ADDRESS: http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3adv.html

‘This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 30, 1996. The advance report on durable goods for August is scheduled for September 26, 1996. This report
is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau’s online
information service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe
(1-800-848-8199), The CENDATA staff at the Bureau of the Census (301-457-1214) can provide content information and general euidance.


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS

(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted

Not seasonally adjusted’

Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jul June May | June; | May- | Apr.- july June Jul
1996? 1996" 1996 | July? | June! | “May 199 1996" 1995 | July96/95
URABLE GOODS
Total:
Shipments 1 168,011 | 166,887 | 167,487 | +0.7 04] +17} 140,787 | 182,207 | 130,352 +78
New orders 22! : 172.650 | 169989 | 170287 | +16 20.2) +42 | 146.697 | 181°236 | 131,084 | +119
Unfilled orders 22222222222 480,086 | 475:407 | 472305 | +L.0 0.7| +06 | 480.886 | 474976 | 4447940, +811
Excluding defense :
Shipments. . 162,174 | 160,682 | 161,488 | +0. 5] +17] 135,993 | 175,512 | 125,181 +83
New orders 167502 | 161879 | 163,873 | +3.5 12) +41 | 143398 | 172'918 | 127-486 | +125
Unfilled orders’ : 371/831 | 366,503 | 365/306 | +1:5 03 |  +0.7 | 373362 | 3657557 | 342/669 +90
With unfilled orders
Shipments : 135,670 | 135,579 | 135,942 | +0.1 03] +18 | 117,103 | 149,047 | 109,384 +71
New orders 140,309 | 138/681 | 138)742 | +1.2 00] +48] 123015 | 148,076 | 109916 | +119
Primary metals :
Shipments . 15,200] 14,659 | 15,059 | -+3.7 27 00} 13,650] 15359 | 13,580 +05
New orders 21.2: 15.789 | 151466 | 15580 | 42.1 07] +20] 13878 | 15436 | 12'858 +79
Unfilled orders 2: 2: 31162 | 30,573 | 29,766 | +19] 42:7] +18] 31,088 | 30,860 | 28/326 49.8
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments ...........-.....:] 31386 | 31,909 | 31,337 16] +18 0. 26,310 | 36,798 | 24,372 48.0
New orders"! | 32301 | 31652 | 31601 | +2.1 +02] +12] 27334] 351812 | 237799 | +144
Unfilled orders 222222220222 72703 | 71,788 | 72:045 | +13 ~o4| 404 | 72171 | 71247 | 70,147 42.9
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments ....... 26,786 26,976 26,694 0.7 +11 0.4 23,464 29,417 21,721 +8.0
New orders 2810 26800 | 25791 | +47] 439] -13 | 26365 7,810 | 24:888 459
Unfilled orders 49}612 | 48332 | 48508 | +26 04 8 | 50/587 | 47,686 | 51:394 “16
Transportation equipment :
Shipments . foe 39,535 | 38,633 | 39.671 | +23 +421 27230] 41,693 | 24574} +108
New orders |: 41,786 | _41°801 | 42299 00 +146 | 281683 | aa3gg | 22°5a1 | 4272
Unfilled orders Lilli] 2423551 | 240/300 | 2375132 | +09 +11 | 2425173 | 240;720 | 209,695 | +15°5
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total :
Shipments 47919 | 49,145 | 48,798 25] +07] +26] 40,827 | 56,745 | 38,820 $5.2
New orders. | $1170 | 51,024 | 513393 | +03 07 | +10.5 ro11 | _57:647 | _35:690 | +20.2
Unfilled orders 354318 | 351067 | 349188] +09] +05] 40.7 | 353,297 | 351213 | 318139} +11
Nondefense :
Shipments... 42,940 | 42,799 2.0] +403] +28] 35,633 | so.0so | 33,449 +65
New orders 2): 42:91, 44979 | +72 “461 +111 | 39,612 | 49,329 | 32092 | +234
Unfilled orders’! | 242,163 | 242189 | +16 0.0) +09] 245.773 | 241,794 | 215868] +139
Excluding aircraft
Shipments... . 38,017 | 36,784 27] 43. +03] 31365 | 44,158] 29,241 +73
New orders | | 37353 | 36.454 | +36] +425 03 | 337117 | 42:7 281538 | +16.0
Unfilled orders 97210 | 97,874 | +18 07 +03 | 98593 | 96841 | 95.261 435
Defense :
Shipments 1 6.205 5,999 39 | #34] 417 3,194 6,695 5,371 33
New orders”. | | 81 644 | 365 | 4264] +62 3/299 8318 37598 83
Unfilled orders’: : 1081904 | 106,999 06 | +18] +04} 107/524 | 109%419 | 102271 +51

(NA) Not available, * Revised

* Shipments and new orders are the wtals for the period and are adjusted for wading-day and calendar-monih variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the pr

and are not adjusted for trading-day or calendar- month variations,

2 Based on advance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision, One major component of survey error is nonsumpling error, which includes errs of coverage,
response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel isnot a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual
benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(92), "Mapufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1982-1992."

> The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines and turbines, internal combustion engines, construction mining and material handling equipment, metalworking. machinery, speci
machinery, general industrial machinery, computer and office equipmest, refrigeration, heating and service industry machinery, electrical ransmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication
and space vehicles, aircraft missles, and space vehicle engines and pars, ships and tank components, rilruad equipment, and search and navigation equipment.

complete aireraft, missi

industry

Defense capital goods include : ordnance,’ communication equipment, aircraft, missles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components. search and navigation equipment.

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry ‘Year ago Tuly | July 1995- | Year ago Tuly | July 1995-{ Year ago Tuly | July 1995-

July 1995 | 1991-1995 | June 1996 | July 1995] 1991-1995 |_June 1996] July 1995] 1991-1995 | June 1996

Durable goods .. . 04 03 04 On 06 06 0.0 02

Primary metals 1112 0.1 03 4 O 04 05 o1 03

Industrial machinery and equipment 7 08 08 18 08 i 0.0 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 08 07 0s Ld 7 10 o4 03

Transportation equipment |). |! 03 10 07 0.1 7 17 00 03

Nondefense capital goods... 14 12 07 08 14 14 0.1 02 03

Defense capital goods... on 07 09 42 59 65 03 04 oa

Note
for the months specified.

‘The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

190 190
New Orders

180 P- ~~ ee ee eee Shipments |-] 180

170 170

160 160
150 150
140 bot l L i 1 L lL J l L lL L Lt 140

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul
Jul. 1994 - Jul. 1996

Nondefense Capital Goods

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

53

-| New Orders | 53
Shipments

48 48

43 43

38 38

33 L L i L il il i il L 1 1 n 1 33
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May — Jul

Jul. 1994 - Jul. 1996

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.