UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

COMMERCE | sitisin
N =-WwSsS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 men CENSUS

Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
Gloria Cable or Lee Wentela July 27, 1995
(301) 457-4804 or (301) 457-4814 CB95-142
M3-1(95)-6

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MAN PACTURERS' SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
June 19!
(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

@ NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $159.4 billion, the
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 2.6 percent May increase and is the fourth decrease in
the last five months. Year to date, new orders are 8.6 percent above the same period a year ago; new orders for the second quarter are
3.3 percent below the first quarter.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decline, $0.7 billion or 2.6 percent to $26.1 billion, with over half of the decline

due to communication equipment. This follows a 4.1 percent May increase. Transportation equipment declined $0.4 billion or 1.0 percent

to $36.1 billion; a large decline in aircraft and aircraft parts rore than offset increases in the other categories. This follows a 2.9 percent

May increase and is the third decline in the last four months. Industrial machinery and equipment, led by an increase in computer and office

equipment, increased $1.2 billion or 3.7 percent to $32.4 billion. This follows a 3.1 percent May increase and is the fifth increase this year.

Prima metals increased $0.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $14.8 billion. This follows a 1.0 percent May decline and is the first increase since
ecember.

©@ SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in June increased $1.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $161.0 billion, following a 1.0 percent May
increase. This is the seventh increase in the last eight months. Year to date, shipments are 8.9 percent above the same period last year;
shipments for the second quarter are 1.1 percent below the first quarter.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 3.0 percent to $26.4 billion, following a 3.1 percent May
increase. Transportation equipment increased $0.7 billion or 1.8 percent to $38.0 billion; both motor vehicles and parts and aircraft and
arts increased. This is the first increase since January. Industrial machinery and equipment, up six of the last seven months, increased
.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $30.9 billion, following a 2.1 percent May increase. Primary metals decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent
to $15.1 billion. is follows a 1.6 percent May increase and is the third decline this year.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in June decreased $1.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $434.3 billion. This is the
third consecutive monthly decline, following seven consecutive monthly increases.

Transportation equipment had the largest decline, $1.9 billion or 1.0 percent to $197.1 billion. This follows a 0.4 percent May decline,
is the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the fifth this year. Since reaching a peak in March 1991, unfilled orders of transportation
equipment have declined nearly every month. Electronic and other electrical equipment decreased $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $52.1
billion, the first decline since August 1994. Primary metals, down for the fourth consecutive month, declined $0.3 billion or 1.0 percent
to $28.2 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment increased $1.5 billion or 2.0 percent to $73.7 billion. This follows a 0.6 percent May
increase and is the twenty-third increase in the last twenty-four months.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in June declined $0.1 billion or 1.4 percent to $5.5 billion. This follows
a 7.4 percent May increase and is the second decline in the last three months. Shipments were down $0.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $6.5
billion. This follows a 0.5 percent May increase and is the second decline in the last three months. Unfilled orders decreased $1.0 billion
or 0.9 percent to $109.2 billion, the third consecutive monthly decline.

@ CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in June decreased $0.3 billion or 0.6 percent to $42.9 billion. This
follows a 7.6 percent May increase and is the second decline in the last three months. Shipments increased $0.9 billion or 2.2 percent to
$42.8 billion, the seventh increase in the last eight months. Unfilled orders, up five of the last six months, increased slightly to $204.5
billion. This follows a 0.6 percent May increase. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.9 billion or 2.5 percent to $38.8
billion, following a 5.0 percent May increase; shipments increased $0.6 billion or 1.7 percent to $37.7 billion, the tenth increase in the last
eleven months; unfilled orders increased $1.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $98.7 billion, the twenty-fifth consecutive monthly increase.

@ REVISED MAY DATA Revised seasonaliy adjusted May figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments, $297.0 billion (revised
from $296.9 billion); new orders, $297.0 billion (unrevised); unfilled orders, $462.0 billion (revised from $462.1 billion); and total
inventories, $408.4 billion (revised from $408.2 billion).

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published August 3, 1995. The advance report on durable goods for July is scheduled for August 24, 1995. This report is available
‘on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870) and through the Census Bureau's online information
service-CENDATA. Further information about accessing CENDATA can be obtained from Dialog Information Services, Inc. (1-800-334-2564) and CompuServe


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
(Millions of dollars)

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Jung Mai Apr. | May; | Apr. | Mar. June May June
1995? 1995" i985 | tune? | May’ | “Apr. 1995? 1998" 1994 | June9s/94
DURABLE GOODS
Total =
Shipments 160,982 | 159,600 | 157,970 +10]  -22 | 176477 | 161,218 | 165,101
New orders 159.419 | 159554 | 155/553 42.6 |  -4%6 | 170.783 | 159927 | 163.603 +44
Uniilled orders | 434310 | 435,873 | 435,919 0.0) 06 | 434;259 | 439953 | 425.973
Excluding defense :
Shipments. . : 154.486 | 153,031] 151436] +10] +1 169,504 | 154,888 | 157,731 475
New orders "| a 153,949 | 154,004 | 150/384 00} +24 165;464 | 155/532 | 1563323 45.8
Unfilled orders’ 325,100 | 325.637 | 324.664 02] 403 325,060 | 329,100 | 312,324 +41
With unfilled orders :
Shipments. . 129,905 | 128,738 | 126646] +09| +17] -15 | 143,007 | 127,357 | 131,266 +8.9
New orders 220222121 1287342 | 128,692 | 124.229 03} +36] -45 | 137313 | 126266 | 129:768 +58
Primary metals :
Shipments .. 2.0.2.0... 15,101 15,161 14,923 16 15,898 | 15,519} 13,514] +176
New orders 14816} 14478 | 14,620 “10 14972 | 14356 | 13,550] +105
Unfilled orders 28181 | 28,466 | 29149 23 28,588 | 29/514 | 261044 +98
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments 30,900 | 30,802 | 30,182] + 42.1 06 | 35,517} 30,237 | 31404] +13.
New orders 32366 | 31.215 | 30,280] 43:7 | 431 -48 | 36302 | 30,704 | 32/532 | +116
Unfilled orders 737687 | 72/221 | 71,808 | 42 +06] 40.1 | 73,172 | 72387 | 60,070 | 421.8
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments"... . soe 26,389 | 25,631 | 24,855 31 28,754 | 24951 | 24422] 417.7
New orders u s.] 26086 | 26,788] 25.736 +41 27,165 | 25896 | 23186 | +172
Unfilled orders |. 2)! : 52133 | 52/436 | $1:279 423 52/031 | 53,620 | 46.413] 412.1
Transportation equipment :
Shipments . . . 37,982 | 37,301} 38,122] +18 22] 45 | 41,888] 39,563 | 42,830 22
New orders 00222200002 36,090 | 36,442 | 35.431 10] 429] -102 | 39.271 | 37900 | 41,930 63
Unfilled orders |: 2)! 197,133 | 199,025 | 199/884 “10 -04| 13 | 197397 | 200/014 | 208,834 55
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Total
Shipments ........ . 49,294 | 48,443 | 47900) +18] +11 36,600 | 46,591 | 30,712 | +116
New orders 22222202222 48337 | 48670 | 45.241 07 | +76 54365 | 45,869 | 50,730 +72
Unfilled orders 2225522 313.736 | 314693 | 314/466 03] +01 313310 | 315;545 | 312/983 +0.1
Nondefense :
Shipments ..............] 42,798 | 4474] 41366 | 422] +12 49,627 | 40,261} 43,342 | +145
New orders) 0201002002. 21 | 43'g67 | 433120 | 40072 06 | +76 046 | 41,474 | 43-450 | +129
Unfilled orders: ! “| 204°526 | 204:457 | 203,211 00] +06 204111 | 204,692 | 199,334 424
Excluding aircraft and parts:
Shipments . 37,716 | 37,083 | 36,002 | +17 -10 | 43,409 | 35,725 | 37.643. | +153
New orders 38762 | 37832 | 36046] 425] +50] -57] 43805 | 36441 | 38910] +126
Unfilled ord 58.683 | 971637 | 96,888 "1 00 | 98:68 | 97872 | 83,243 | +180
Defense :
‘Shipments. 6,496 6,569 6,534 “ll 0. -16 6.973 6,330 7,370 “34
New orders | || 470 51550 53169 4| +74] 278 53319 43395 77280 -26.9
Unfilled orders’ | 109,210 | 110,236 | 1117255 09 09) “12 | 109,199 ] 110/853 | 113,649 3.9

(NA) Not available. * Revise.

"Shipments and new orders are the tals fr he peviod and ate adjusted for wadingday and calendar-mondh variation; unfled orders areas ofthe end ofthe period ant are it adjusted for trading day or clendar-monh variations

2 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers” shipments, iventories, and orders are subject to survey eve and revision. One major component of survey ertor is nonsampling eror, which includes erors of coverage,
response and nonzeporting. Since the survey panel is not a probabiligy ts of sampling err cannot be Calculated, Further details cn Survey design, methollogy, and data limitations are contained in our most recent anal
tenchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-I(92), “Manufactures” Shipments, Inventories, an Orders: 1982-1952."

°The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : ordnance and accessories, steam engines ae turbines. imteral combustion engines, constraction mining and material banding equipment, metalworking machinery, special inlustry
smachinery, general industial machioey, computer and office equipmen, relrigerauon, heating and service industry machinery, electal tansmissin and dsinbution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, communication equipment,
complete airraft, missiles, and space Vehicles, aireraft missiles, and space Vehile engines and pars, shins and tank compenents, raitoad equipment, and search and navigation equipment

‘Defense capital goods include "ordnance, communicalion equipment, aierafl, missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships, tanks and tank components, search and navigution equipment

Table 2, AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

Shipments New Orders Unfilled Orders

Industry Year ago June | June 1994-| Year ago June | June 1994-| Year ago Tune | June 1994-

June 1994 | 1990-1994 | May 1995 | June 1994] 1990-1994 | May 1995] _June 1994] 1990-1994 | May 1995

Durable goods : o Ol 02 01 03 04 01 01 01

Primary metals... . . on O7 07 12 09 Ll 03 02 o4

Industrial machinery and equipment. Os 05 06 08 08 10 03 02 03
Electronic and other

electrical equipment ou 02 04 10 17 08 0.6 07 oa

Transportation equipment 0.1 06 0.6 On 05 08 0.0 O4 04

Nondefense capital goods 12 04 07 10 08 12 00 0.1 02

Defense capital goods 02 05 07 i) 29 31 ol ot 02

Note: The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and final estimates. The monthly averages arc the simple averages of the differences, without regard t
for the months specified.


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments

Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

185 185
New Orders

175 - -- ~~ 2 eee ee eee eee eee ee eee] ——— 4.175
Shipments

165 165

155 155

145 145

135 135

125 1 1 L 1 il L 1 1 1 JL L il 1 125

Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun
Jun. 1993 - Jun. 1995
Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars
49P---- o-oo ee -] 49
New Orders
44------------------------------------ Shipments |_| 44

39

34

29 1 1 J 1 1 1 1 it 1. i L L 1 29
Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun

Jun. 1993 - Jun. 1995

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.