U.S. Census Bureau 

For Data - (301) 763-4673

For Questions - Derrick Roy or Patrick Kent (301) 763-4832

M3-1(04)-01

For Release 8:30 A.M. EST

February 26, 2004

CB-04-32

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS

January 2004

(Figures in text, other than year-to-date, are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Figures on new and unfilled orders

exclude data for semiconductor manufacturing.)

! NEW ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $3.2 billion or 1.8 percent to $181.0 billion, the

Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.6 percent December increase. Excluding

transportation, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.0 percent.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $5.8 billion or 10.4 percent to $49.5 billion. All component transportation

industries decreased, except ships and boats. This was the largest percent decline in transportation equipment since September

2002. Computers and electronic products increased $2.1 billion or 7.1 percent to $31.7 billion, due to communications

equipment, which increased $3.0 billion or 73.3 percent. This was the largest percent increase in communications equipment

since January 1997.

! SHIPMENTS of manufactured durable goods in January decreased $0.1 billion to $188.1 billion. This followed a 2.2 percent

December increase.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.5 billion or 2.8 percent to $51.6 billion, led by motor vehicles and parts,

which decreased by $1.6 billion. Computers and electronic products, up seven of the last eight months, increased $0.8 billion or

2.2 percent to $38.3 billion.

! UNFILLED ORDERS for manufactured durable goods in January, down following five consecutive increases, decreased

$0.7 billion or 0.1 percent to $505.2 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent December increase.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $249.9 billion. Fabricated metal products, up

six consecutive months, increased $1.1 billion or 2.7 percent to $40.0 billion.

! INVENTORIES of manufactured durable goods in January, up three of the last four months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1

percent to $263.0 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent December increase.

Machinery, up for the third consecutive month, had the largest increase, $0.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $41.9 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in January decreased $1.3 billion or 13.7 percent to $8.2

billion. Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $8.0 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to

$138.4 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $19.5 billion.

! CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in January increased $0.9 billion or 1.5 percent to $61.1

billion. Shipments increased $1.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $61.7 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to

$220.3 billion. Inventories decreased $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $105.2 billion.

! REVISED December DATA Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries are: new

orders, $345.0 billion (revised from $342.4 billion); shipments, $348.9 billion (revised from $346.5 billion); unfilled orders,

$505.9 billion (revised from $505.8 billion); and total inventories, $439.5 billion (revised from $438.1 billion).

SEE BACK PAGE FOR SURVEY DESCRIPTION

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/m3

Revised and more detailed estimates plus nondurable goods data will be published March 4, 2004 at 10:00 A.M. EST. The advance report on durable goods for February

is scheduled for March 24 at 8:30 A.M. EST.
 2

Table 1. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments and New Orders

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Year to Date

Item Percent

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan Change

2004 2 2003 r 2003 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2004 2 2003 r 2003 2004 2003 04/03

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Shipments................................ 188,110 188,193 184,074 0.0 2.2 0.2 168,020 189,514 159,049 168,020 159,049 5.6

 New Orders 4

.............................. 180,984 184,226 181,346 -1.8 1.6 -2.4 169,335 189,869 159,786 169,335 159,786 6.0

 Excluding transportation:

 Shipments................................ 136,550 135,122 130,829 1.1 3.3 -0.4 121,500 138,690 111,676 121,500 111,676 8.8

 New Orders 4.............................. 131,468 128,935 126,831 2.0 1.7 -3.3 121,401 131,894 110,701 121,401 110,701 9.7

 Excluding defense:

 Shipments................................ 178,764 178,838 175,275 0.0 2.0 0.3 160,268 178,701 152,004 160,268 152,004 5.4

 New Orders 4.............................. 171,952 173,617 170,450 -1.0 1.9 -2.3 159,521 173,356 151,721 159,521 151,721 5.1

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Shipments................................ 128,892 126,803 124,212 1.6 2.1 0.5 114,593 129,679 107,234 114,593 107,234 6.9

 New Orders 4.............................. 128,176 128,882 127,774 -0.5 0.9 -3.1 121,853 136,404 113,107 121,853 113,107 7.7

 Primary metals:

 Shipments................................ 11,863 11,568 11,069 2.6 4.5 0.9 11,606 10,269 11,231 11,606 11,231 3.3

 New Orders.............................. 11,915 11,622 11,811 2.5 -1.6 -1.1 12,335 10,715 11,665 12,335 11,665 5.7

 Fabricated metal products:

 Shipments................................ 21,308 21,047 20,423 1.2 3.1 -0.5 19,592 19,530 19,199 19,592 19,199 2.0

 New Orders.............................. 22,363 21,843 21,089 2.4 3.6 -0.5 21,322 19,668 19,282 21,322 19,282 10.6

 Machinery:

 Shipments................................ 23,402 22,926 21,260 2.1 7.8 -1.1 20,410 22,734 18,230 20,410 18,230 12.0

 New Orders.............................. 23,703 24,165 22,269 -1.9 8.5 2.6 21,945 23,349 19,094 21,945 19,094 14.9

 Computers and electronic products:

 Shipments................................ 38,325 37,487 36,348 2.2 3.1 -0.5 33,024 45,044 27,810 33,024 27,810 18.7

 New Orders 4.............................. 31,708 29,604 29,471 7.1 0.5 -12.5 28,482 37,965 25,234 28,482 25,234 12.9

 Computers and related products:

 Shipments................................ 8,762 8,494 8,172 3.2 3.9 -3.3 7,717 11,090 6,262 7,717 6,262 23.2

 New Orders.............................. 8,503 8,686 8,139 -2.1 6.7 -0.9 7,260 11,024 5,976 7,260 5,976 21.5 

 Communications equipment:

 Shipments................................ 6,977 6,742 6,667 3.5 1.1 -1.5 5,648 8,907 4,744 5,648 4,744 19.1

 New Orders.............................. 7,182 4,145 5,122 73.3 -19.1 -46.4 6,676 6,168 6,642 6,676 6,642 0.5

 Semiconductors:

 Shipments................................ 6,410 6,046 6,290 6.0 -3.9 0.3 5,945 6,370 5,136 5,945 5,136 15.8

 New Orders 4.............................. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Shipments................................ 8,545 8,620 8,627 -0.9 -0.1 0.8 7,353 9,040 7,438 7,353 7,438 -1.1

 New Orders.............................. 8,532 8,228 8,464 3.7 -2.8 -2.3 7,502 8,499 7,447 7,502 7,447 0.7

 Transportation equipment: 

 Shipments................................ 51,560 53,071 53,245 -2.8 -0.3 1.6 46,520 50,824 47,373 46,520 47,373 -1.8

 New Orders.............................. 49,516 55,291 54,515 -10.4 1.4 -0.2 47,934 57,975 49,085 47,934 49,085 -2.3

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Shipments................................ 36,832 38,450 37,591 -4.2 2.3 -0.6 34,956 34,033 36,776 34,956 36,776 -4.9

 New Orders.............................. 36,666 38,631 37,868 -5.1 2.0 -1.2 35,255 34,695 37,193 35,255 37,193 -5.2 

 Nondefense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 5,362 5,323 5,861 0.7 -9.2 6.8 3,932 6,534 3,556 3,932 3,556 10.6

 New Orders.............................. 4,398 6,098 4,930 -27.9 23.7 -12.4 3,783 8,602 4,704 3,783 4,704 -19.6

 Defense aircraft and parts:

 Shipments................................ 3,503 3,488 3,016 0.4 15.6 -10.8 2,903 4,159 2,566 2,903 2,566 13.1

 New Orders.............................. 2,501 3,787 3,733 -34.0 1.4 -5.0 2,961 5,846 2,899 2,961 2,899 2.1

 All other durable goods: 

 Shipments................................ 33,107 33,474 33,102 -1.1 1.1 -0.5 29,515 32,073 27,768 29,515 27,768 6.3

 New Orders.............................. 33,247 33,473 33,727 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 29,815 31,698 27,979 29,815 27,979 6.6

 Capital goods:3

 Shipments................................ 69,727 68,534 66,183 1.7 3.6 -0.5 59,721 77,190 52,632 59,721 52,632 13.5

 New Orders.............................. 69,270 69,684 67,084 -0.6 3.9 -5.5 64,007 82,539 56,704 64,007 56,704 12.9

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 61,705 60,590 58,684 1.8 3.2 0.1 52,962 68,166 46,523 52,962 46,523 13.8

 New Orders.............................. 61,093 60,204 57,862 1.5 4.0 -6.2 55,280 67,865 49,791 55,280 49,791 11.0

 Excluding aircraft:

 Shipments........................... 59,653 58,120 55,823 2.6 4.1 -0.7 51,673 64,753 45,298 51,673 45,298 14.1

 New Orders......................... 59,721 57,657 55,553 3.6 3.8 -5.8 53,856 63,082 47,721 53,856 47,721 12.9

 Defense capital goods:

 Shipments................................ 8,022 7,944 7,499 1.0 5.9 -5.3 6,759 9,024 6,109 6,759 6,109 10.6

 New Orders.............................. 8,177 9,480 9,222 -13.7 2.8 -1.2 8,727 14,674 6,913 8,727 6,913 26.2

NA Not Available r Revised

1

 Shipments and new orders are the totals for the period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendar-month variations; unfilled orders and total inventories are as of the end of the period and are not 

adjusted for trading-day or calendar-month variations.

2

 Based on advance sample. Estimates of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders are subject to survey error and revision. One major component of survey error is nonsampling error, which 

includes errors of coverage, response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel is not a probability sample, estimates of sampling error cannot be calculated. Further details on survey design, 

methodology, and data limitations are contained in our most recent annual benchmark publication, Current Industrial Reports: M3-1(02), "Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: 1992-2002."

3

 The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense : small arms and ordnance; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; mining, oil, and gas field machinery; industrial machinery; vending,

laundry, and other machinery; photographic equipment; metalworking machinery; turbines and generators; other power transmission equipment; pumps and compressors; material handling equipment; all 

other machinery; electronic computers; computer storage devices; other computer peripheral equipment; communications equipment; search and navigation equipment; electromedical, measuring, and 

control instruments; electrical equipment; other electrical equipment, appliances, and components; heavy duty trucks; aircraft; railroad rolling stock; ships and boats; office and institutional furniture; and 

medical equipment and supplies.

 Defense Capital Goods include : small arms and ordnance, communications equipment, aircraft; missiles, space vehicles, and parts, ships and boats, and search and navigation equipment.

4 Data on new and unfilled orders are not available for the semiconductor industry. Estimates and percent changes for new orders and unfilled orders exclude semiconductor industry data. 

Inventories for semiconductor industry data are included in computers and electronic products and total durable goods industries, but are not shown separately.
 3

Table 2. Durable Goods Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders and Total Inventories

[Millions of Dollars]

Seasonally Adjusted Not Seasonally Adjusted 1

Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent

Item Change

Jan Dec Nov Dec - Nov - Oct - Jan Dec Jan 2004/

2004 2 2003 r 2003 Jan 2 Dec r Nov 2004 2 2003 r 2003 2003

DURABLE GOODS

 Total:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 505,232 505,948 503,869 -0.1 0.4 0.7 509,314 502,054 486,552 4.7

 Total Inventories....................... 263,022 262,827 261,414 0.1 0.5 -0.4 262,333 255,909 270,014 -2.8

 Excluding transportation:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 255,370 254,042 254,183 0.5 -0.1 0.9 256,617 250,771 240,424 6.7

 Total Inventories....................... 195,307 195,394 194,396 0.0 0.5 -0.2 195,195 190,780 202,420 -3.6

 Excluding defense:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 346,955 347,357 346,532 -0.1 0.2 0.4 349,543 344,345 340,987 2.5

 Total Inventories....................... 238,920 238,568 237,831 0.1 0.3 -0.5 238,553 232,274 248,811 -4.1

 Manufacturing with unfilled orders:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 505,232 505,948 503,869 -0.1 0.4 0.7 509,314 502,054 486,552 4.7

 Total Inventories....................... 205,363 205,543 204,731 -0.1 0.4 -0.3 204,592 200,399 212,929 -3.9

 Primary metals:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 16,490 16,438 16,384 0.3 0.3 4.7 16,718 15,989 14,893 12.3

 Total Inventories....................... 17,464 17,300 17,276 0.9 0.1 0.7 17,607 17,420 19,246 -8.5

 Fabricated metal products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 39,990 38,935 38,139 2.7 2.1 1.8 39,759 38,029 36,983 7.5

 Total Inventories....................... 30,864 30,979 30,995 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 30,949 30,473 31,790 -2.6

 Machinery: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 44,203 43,902 42,663 0.7 2.9 2.4 44,399 42,864 43,284 2.6

 Total Inventories....................... 41,894 41,589 41,220 0.7 0.9 -0.6 41,967 40,527 42,979 -2.4

 Computers and electronic products:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ 128,958 129,165 131,002 -0.2 -1.4 -0.4 130,148 128,745 121,377 7.2

 Total Inventories....................... 47,267 47,734 47,130 -1.0 1.3 -0.1 46,927 45,928 50,148 -6.4

 Computers and related products:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 8,584 8,843 8,651 -2.9 2.2 -0.4 8,348 8,805 7,838 6.5

 Total Inventories....................... 6,022 6,145 6,021 -2.0 2.1 -0.8 5,799 5,639 6,150 -5.7 

 Communications equipment:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 50,468 50,263 52,860 0.4 -4.9 -2.8 50,797 49,769 46,645 8.9

 Total Inventories....................... 10,593 11,030 11,092 -4.0 -0.6 0.8 10,551 10,679 12,625 -16.4

 Semiconductors:

 Unfilled Orders4

........................ (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Total Inventories4...................... (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)

 Electrical equipment, appliances, 

 and components: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,592 13,605 13,997 -0.1 -2.8 -1.2 13,546 13,397 13,801 -1.8

 Total Inventories....................... 12,431 12,386 12,372 0.4 0.1 0.7 12,418 11,956 12,692 -2.2

 Transportation equipment: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 249,862 251,906 249,686 -0.8 0.9 0.5 252,697 251,283 246,128 2.7

 Total Inventories....................... 67,715 67,433 67,018 0.4 0.6 -0.8 67,138 65,129 67,594 -0.7

 Motor vehicles and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 13,319 13,485 13,304 -1.2 1.4 2.1 13,919 13,620 12,550 10.9

 Total Inventories....................... 20,662 20,222 20,054 2.2 0.8 0.1 20,662 19,598 20,857 -0.9 

 Nondefense Aircraft and parts:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 103,711 104,675 103,900 -0.9 0.7 -0.9 104,922 105,071 112,642 -6.9

 Total Inventories....................... 23,943 24,012 24,173 -0.3 -0.7 -2.6 23,660 22,997 26,280 -10.0

 Defense Aircraft and parts: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 61,137 62,139 61,840 -1.6 0.5 1.2 60,830 60,772 56,297 8.1

 Total Inventories....................... 11,532 11,623 11,169 -0.8 4.1 1.3 11,325 11,285 9,660 17.2

 All other durable goods: 

 Unfilled Orders......................... 12,137 11,997 11,998 1.2 0.0 5.5 12,047 11,747 10,086 19.4

 Total Inventories....................... 45,387 45,406 45,403 0.0 0.0 -0.6 45,327 44,476 45,565 -0.5

 Capital goods:3

 Unfilled Orders......................... 358,672 359,129 357,979 -0.1 0.3 0.3 361,653 357,367 342,783 5.5

 Total Inventories....................... 124,629 125,084 124,473 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 123,801 121,408 129,082 -4.1

 Nondefense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 220,291 220,903 221,289 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 221,685 219,367 216,670 2.3

 Total Inventories....................... 105,151 105,530 105,252 -0.4 0.3 -0.4 104,495 102,140 111,393 -6.2

 Excluding aircraft: 

 Unfilled Orders.................... 141,104 141,036 141,499 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 141,287 139,104 130,694 8.1

 Total Inventories.................. 88,069 88,535 88,210 -0.5 0.4 0.1 87,551 85,890 91,973 -4.8

 Defense capital goods:

 Unfilled Orders......................... 138,381 138,226 136,690 0.1 1.1 1.3 139,968 138,000 126,113 11.0

 Total Inventories....................... 19,478 19,554 19,221 -0.4 1.7 1.2 19,306 19,268 17,689 9.1

See footnotes at end of Table 1 
Survey Description 

This report is compiled from results of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

(M3) survey. This survey provides statistics on manufacturers' value of shipments, new orders (net of cancellations),

end-of-month order backlog (unfilled orders), and end-of-month total inventory (at current cost or market value). 

The M3 includes approximately 3,500 reporting units. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large

homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories. Due to the small monthly sample,

these 89 categories have been combined into 59 publication levels. The survey methodology assumes that the

month-to-month changes of the total operations of those companies in the monthly survey effectively represent the

month-to-month movements of all establishments that make up the category. The current coverage levels in the

survey show that reported data in the monthly survey represent approximately 60 percent of the shipments estimates

at the total manufacturing level. Data published represent manufacturing in a calendar month. The data collection is

based on a voluntary survey authorized by Title 13 of the United States Code.

The data presented in this release are based on data obtained from a panel of 3,500 reporting units and provide an

indication of the activity within the manufacturing sector. The results differ from what would be obtained from a

complete enumeration of all manufacturing companies. In addition, a different panel of 3,500 companies would

yield different results. The M3 panel is comprised of companies with $500 million or more in shipments and a

limited number of smaller companies. From a statistical perspective, the panel is not a probability sample; therefore,

the sampling errors that are normally provided with sample surveys cannot be measured. Nonsampling errors are

attributable to many sources. The use of company or divisional reports to estimate the monthly change for

establishments is one source of nonsampling error. The use of primarily large companies to represent the month-tomonth movement of all companies is another potential source.

Additional survey documentation can be found on our web site: http://www.census.gov/m3/.