# DRAFT
**Table 13.4.9 TMY System Load High Growth Reference Case Forecast**  **NEMS-BT Results:**

**2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030** Residential Sector Energy Consumptiona Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,016 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.89 5.98 6.06 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.05 2.04 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.58 5.67 5.74 Other (Quads)c 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93

Total U.S. Electric Generationd Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 2,691 3,195 3,670 Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 1,082 995 976 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556 Total (TWh)e 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,270 5,780 6,337
Installed Generating Capacityf Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 382.0 448.7 511.3 Other Fossil (GW)g 281.5 450.9 473.6 433.9 456.3 484.2 517.5 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.7 127.6 Total (GW)h 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,067.6 1,174.3 1,285.0

**Low Growth Case** 

# Table 13.4.16 TMY System**Load Low Growth Reference Case Forecast NEMS-BT Results:** 

**2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030** Residential Sector Energy Consumptiona Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1192 1365 1472 1561 1647 1711 1772 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.59 5.54 5.48 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.30 5.25 5.19

0900006480fa7774.xls/TMY System Load Kristina S Hamachi 1/27/20122:24 PM

## Table 13.4.2. Standard Level 1 Forecast **NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref w** **ith TMY System Load** Extrapolation **2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2000**  **2005 2010**  **2015 2020**  **2025 2030**  **2035 2038**  Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity

Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,895 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.73 5.75 5.75 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.45 5.45 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,9692,015 2,145 2,299 2,520 2,923 3,315 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,053 983 976 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,381 5,773 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.4 463.4 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.3 464.5 495.0 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.01,010.9 975.51,023.51,102.71,185.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 **High Growth Case** 

## Table 13.4.10. Standard Level 1 High Grow**th Forecast**

0900006480fa7774.xls/Std1 Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012**Reference Case** 

## Table 13.4.3. Standard Level A Forecast **NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref w** **ith TMY System Load** Extrapolation **2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2000**  **2005 2010**  **2015 2020**  **2025 2030**  **2035 2038**  Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity

Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,895 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.72 5.75 5.75 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.45 5.45 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,9692,015 2,145 2,299 2,520 2,923 3,315 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,053 984 976 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,381 5,773 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.3 463.4 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.3 464.6 495.1 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.01,010.9 975.51,023.51,102.81,185.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 **High Growth Case** 

## Table 13.4.11. Standard Level A High Grow**th Forecast**

0900006480fa7774.xls/StdA Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012

## Table 13.4.4. Standard Level 2 Forecast **NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref w** **ith TMY System Load** Extrapolation **2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2000**  **2005 2010**  **2015 2020**  **2025 2030**  **2035 2038**  Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity

Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,896 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.72 5.74 5.73 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04-0.05 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.42 5.44 5.43 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04-0.04 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,9692,015 2,145 2,299 2,519 2,922 3,315 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,054 985 977 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,382 5,774 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.1 412.2 463.4 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.7 465.2 495.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.01,010.8 975.51,023.81,103.31,186.6 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 **High Growth Case** 

## Table 13.4.12. Standard Level 2 High Grow**th Forecast**

0900006480fa7774.xls/Std2 Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012

## Table 13.4.5. Standard Level B Forecast **NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref w** **ith TMY System Load** Extrapolation **2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2000**  **2005 2010**  **2015 2020**  **2025 2030**  **2035 2038**  Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity

Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,704 1,803 1,904 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.3 9.5 11.7 12.4 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.66 5.62 5.54 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.07 -0.14-0.22 -0.28 -0.30 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.04 1.98 1.95 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.37 5.33 5.25 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.06 -0.13 -0.21 -0.26 -0.28 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.85 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,9692,015 2,144 2,296 2,514 2,917 3,314 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.6 -5.9 -6.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,018 1,057 993 985 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 4.1 10.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 485 494 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,025 5,385 5,780 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 3.5 7.2 7.2 7.2 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.8 357.5 411.4 463.3 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.6 473.0 431.0 445.0 470.6 503.0 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.9 6.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.8 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (GW) 789.5 968.71,010.6 975.71,026.51,107.91,193.6 Total (GW) 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.2 5.4 8.2 8.2 8.2 **High Growth Case** 

## Table 13.4.13. Standard Level B High Grow**th Forecast**

0900006480fa7774.xls/StdB Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012

## Table 13.4.6. Standard Level 4 Forecast **NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref w** **ith TMY System Load** Extrapolation **2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2000**  **2005 2010**  **2015 2020**  **2025 2030**  **2035 2038**  Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity

Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,704 1,803 1,904 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.3 9.4 11.7 12.3 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.66 5.62 5.54 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.07 -0.15 -0.22 -0.28 -0.31 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.04 1.98 1.95 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.36 5.32 5.25 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.07 -0.14-0.21 -0.27 -0.29 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.84 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,9692,015 2,144 2,296 2,514 2,917 3,314 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.7 -6.0 -6.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,018 1,057 993 985 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 4.2 10.3 8.7 8.7 8.7 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 485 494 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,025 5,385 5,780 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 3.6 7.4 7.4 7.4 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.8 357.5 411.4 463.3 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.6 473.0 431.0 445.1 470.8 503.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 4.0 6.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.8 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (GW) 789.5 968.71,010.6 975.71,026.61,108.01,193.8 Total (GW) 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.3 5.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 **High Growth Case** 

## Table 13.4.14. Standard Level 4 High Grow**th Forecast**

0900006480fa7774.xls/Std4 Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012

## Table 13.4.7. Standard Level 5 Forecast **NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2007 Ref w** **ith TMY System Load** Extrapolation **2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2000**  **2005 2010**  **2015 2020**  **2025 2030**  **2035 2038**  Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity

Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,710 1,815 1,922 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 17.6 26.7 33.6 36.0 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.57 5.44 5.26 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.15 -0.32 -0.50 -0.64-0.69 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.03 1.95 1.91 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.02 -0.04-0.06 -0.07 -0.08 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.28 5.15 4.99 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.15 -0.31 -0.47 -0.60 -0.66 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.92 1.85 1.81 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.02 -0.04-0.06 -0.07 -0.07

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,9692,015 2,143 2,293 2,507 2,909 3,314 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.7 -12.7 -13.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,020 1,062 1,005 995 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.9 8.9 21.8 18.5 18.5 18.5 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 104 103 106 109 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 486 496 507 516 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,024 5,389 5,789 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -2.0 7.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.9 356.8 410.2 463.1 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -1.4 -2.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.3 472.7 431.2 449.4 478.1 512.8 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.4 8.3 13.9 18.2 18.2 18.2 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.1 119.8 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (GW) 789.5 968.41,010.2 975.91,030.31,114.11,203.2 Total (GW) 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 0.4 7.0 11.6 17.8 17.8 17.8 **High Growth Case** 

## Table 13.4.15. Standard Level 5 High Grow**th Forecast**

0900006480fa7774.xls/Std5 Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012

### Table EA4. Power Sector Em**issions Im pacts Forecast (Reference)**  NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO2007 Ref with TMY System Load
**2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2000**  **2005 2010**  **2015 2020**  **2025 2030**  **2035 2038**  **AEO2007 Reference Case with TMY** Extrapolation CO2(Mt/a)a,b 2,279.02,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.02,855.03,095.03,353.0

**Standard Level 1** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.02,854.93,095.13,353.3 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3

**Standard Level A** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,507.0 2,678.02,854.93,095.23,353.3 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

**Standard Level 2** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,507.0 2,677.92,854.73,095.43,353.9 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9

**Standard Level B** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.22,853.33,097.83,358.6 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.8 5.6 5.6 5.6

**Standard Level 4** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,506.7 2,677.22,853.33,097.93,358.8 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 2.9 5.8 5.8 5.8

**Standard Level 5** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,506.4 2,676.32,851.43,101.13,365.2 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.7 -3.6 6.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 **High Growth Case** 

### Table EA5. Power Sector Em**issions for Standard (High Growth)** NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO2007 High Growth with TMY System Load
**2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2000**  **2005 2010**  **2015 2020**  **2025 2030**  **2035 2038**  **AEO2007 High Growth Case with TMY System Load**  Extrapolation CO2(Mt/a)a,b 2,279.02,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.02,993.03,300.03,609.0

**Standard Level 1** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.02,993.23,300.53,609.9 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9

**Standard Level A** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.02,993.23,300.63,610.1 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1

**Standard Level 2** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,531.0 2,754.02,993.63,301.53,611.9 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.9

**Standard Level B** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,530.8 2,754.02,997.13,309.93,628.2 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 4.1 9.9 19.2 19.2 19.2

**Standard Level 4** CO2(Mt/a) 2,279.02,375.0 2,530.8 2,754.02,997.23,310.23,628.7 CO2 (Mt/a) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 4.2 10.2 19.7 19.7 19.7

**Standard Level 5**

0900006480fa7774.xls/Power Sector Emissions Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012**Reference Case**

**Table EA7. Change in Household Emissions for Standard (Reference)** AEO2007 Standard Case Results
**2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2035**  **2038** Extrapolation **Standard Level 1** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.36 -0.56 -0.56 -0.56 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.30 -0.46 -0.46 -0.46 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

**Standard Level A** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.46 -0.70 -0.70 -0.70 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.38 -0.57 -0.57 -0.57 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

**Standard Level 2** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.58 -1.21 -1.85 -1.85 -1.85 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.48 -0.99 -1.51 -1.51 -1.51 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11

**Standard Level B** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.94 -8.18 -12.52 -12.52 -12.52 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.28 -6.79 -10.39 -10.39 -10.39 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.27 -0.38 -0.38 -0.38

**Standard Level 4** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.06 -8.42 -12.89 -12.89 -12.89 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.38 -6.98 -10.68 -10.68 -10.68 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.24 -0.46 -0.63 -0.63 -0.63

**Standard Level 5** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.99 -18.76 -28.78 -28.78 -28.78 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.38 -15.38 -23.59 -23.59 -23.59 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.35 -2.74 -3.94 -3.94 -3.94 **High Growth Case Table EA8. Change in Household Emissions for Standard (High Growth)**  AEO2007 Standard Case Results **2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2035**  **2038** Extrapolation **Standard Level 1** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.38 -0.59 -0.59 -0.59 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.31 -0.48 -0.48 -0.48 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

**Standard Level A** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.49 -0.74 -0.74 -0.74 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.08 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11

**Standard Level 2** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.62 -1.28 -1.97 -1.97 -1.97 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.51 -1.04 -1.61 -1.61 -1.61 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.12 -0.12 -0.12

**Standard Level B** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.20 -8.70 -13.42 -13.42 -13.42 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.49 -7.22 -11.12 -11.12 -11.12 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.28 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40

**Standard Level 4** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4.32 -8.95 -13.80 -13.80 -13.80 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.59 -7.42 -11.43 -11.43 -11.43 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.48 -0.65 -0.65 -0.65

**Standard Level 5**

0900006480fa7774.xls/Household Emisions Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012 CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -9.62 -20.02 -30.89 -30.89 -30.89 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.89 -16.41 -25.31 -25.31 -25.31 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.42 -2.87 -4.15 -4.15 -4.15

**Low Growth Case Table EA9. Change in Household Emissions for Standard (Low Growth)**  AEO2007 Standard Case Results **2000 2005**  **2010 2015**  **2020 2025**  **2030 2035**  **2038** Extrapolation **Standard Level 1** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.34 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.28 -0.42 -0.42 -0.42 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

**Standard Level A** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.43 -0.64 -0.64 -0.64 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.35 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.08 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10

**Standard Level 2** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.55 -1.11 -1.67 -1.67 -1.67 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.45 -0.91 -1.36 -1.36 -1.36 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11

**Standard Level B** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.69 -7.47 -11.18 -11.18 -11.18 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.08 -6.20 -9.26 -9.26 -9.26 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.13 -0.25 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34

**Standard Level 4** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.81 -7.70 -11.52 -11.52 -11.52 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.17 -6.38 -9.53 -9.53 -9.53 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.44 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58

**Standard Level 5** CO2(Mt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -8.38 -17.13 -25.80 -25.80 -25.80 NOx (kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -6.88 -14.04 -21.13 -21.13 -21.13 SO2(kt/a) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.29 -2.57 -3.65 -3.65 -3.65

0900006480fa7774.xls/Household Emisions Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012

### NEMS-BT Resultsa **Cum ulative 2000-**  **2030 Cum** 

**ulative 2015- 2038**  

### Exogenous Resultsa **Cum ulative 2000-**  **2030 Cum** 

**ulative 2015- 2038** 

**Standard Level 1 Standard Level 1**  CO2(Mt) 0.6 2.8 CO2(Mt) -4.4 -8.9 NOx (kt) -3.6 -7.3 SO2(kt) 0.0 0.0

**Standard Level A Standard Level A**  CO2(Mt) 0.7 3.4 CO2(Mt) -5.6 -11.2 NOx (kt) -4.6 -9.2 SO2(kt) -1.0 -1.8

**Standard Level 2 Standard Level 2**  CO2(Mt) 2.1 9.3 CO2(Mt) -14.5 -29.2 NOx (kt) -11.8 -23.9 SO2(kt) -1.1 -2.0

**Standard Level B Standard Level B**  CO2(Mt) 14.0 61.2 CO2(Mt) -98.1 -198.3 NOx (kt) -81.5 -164.6 SO2(kt) -3.2 -6.2

**Standard Level 4 Standard Level 4**  CO2(Mt) 14.3 62.8 CO2(Mt) -101.0 -204.1 NOx (kt) -83.8 -169.2 SO2(kt) -5.5 -10.5

**Standard Level 5 Standard Level 5**  CO2(Mt) 30.4 133.1 CO2(Mt) -224.9 -455.1 NOx (kt) -184.4 -373.1 SO2(kt) -32.4 -63.9
**High Growth Case**



### NEMS-BT Resultsa **Cum ulative 2000-**  **2030 Cum** 

**ulative 2015- 2038**  

### Exogenous Resultsa **Cum ulative 2000-**  **2030 Cum** 

**ulative 2015- 2038** 

**Standard Level 1 Standard Level 1**  CO2(Mt) 5.4 12.6 CO2(Mt) -4.6 -9.4 NOx (kt) -3.8 -7.7 SO2(kt) 0.0 0.0

**Standard Level A Standard Level A**  CO2(Mt) 6.6 15.3 CO2(Mt) -5.9 -11.8 NOx (kt) -4.8 -9.6 SO2(kt) -1.0 -1.8

**Standard Level 2 Standard Level 2**  CO2(Mt) 17.6 41.2 CO2(Mt) -15.4 -31.1 NOx (kt) -12.6 -25.4 SO2(kt) -1.1 -2.0

**Standard Level B Standard Level B**  CO2(Mt) 116.1 271.3 CO2(Mt) -104.6 -211.9 NOx (kt) -86.8 -175.8 SO2(kt) -3.3 -6.5

**Standard Level 4 Standard Level 4**  CO2(Mt) 119.1 278.3 CO2(Mt) -107.6 -218.0 NOx (kt) -89.2 -180.6 SO2(kt) -5.7 -10.9

**Standard Level 5 Standard Level 5**  CO2(Mt) 251.8 589.2 CO2(Mt) -240.5 -487.6 NOx (kt) -197.1 -399.6 SO2(kt) -34.0 -67.2 

### Table EA.10. Cumulative Power Sector **Emissions Impacts Relative to the Base Case 1**  

### Table EA.13. Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts **Forecast Relative to the Base Case**

**Table EA.11. Cumulative Power Sector Emissions Impacts Relative to the Base Case** **1** 

### Table EA.14. Cumulative Household Emissions Impacts **Forecast Relative to the Base Case**

0900006480fa7774.xls/Cumulative Emissions Kristina Hamachi LaCommare 1/27/2012