ECONOMICS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AND
STATISTICS
ADMINISTRATION
=
BUREAU OF THE
WASHINGTON, DC 20230 CENSUS
Bureau of the Census For Release 8:30 A.M. EDT
For Data - (301) 457-4673 May 26, 2000
For Questions - Lee Weniela or Derrick Roy €B00-87
(301) 457-4832 or (301) 457-4814
M3-1(00)-04

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS AND ORDERS
“April 2

(All figures in text below are in seasonally adjusted current dollars)

© NEW ORDERS New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $14.1 billion or 6.4 percent to $205.6
billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 4.5 percent March increase and
is the largest decrease since December 1991. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 6.4 percent. Year-to-date,
new orders are 7.6 percent above the same period a year ago.

Electronic and other electrical equipment had the largest decrease, $9.0 billion or 20.1 percent to $35.7 billion, mostly due
to electronic components. This is the largest decrease on record. Transportation equipment decreased $3.2 billion or 6.7
percent to $45.5 billion; all components decreased, led by motor vehicles and parts. Primary metals decreased $0.3 billion
or 2.1 percent to $15.5 billion. This is the largest decrease since January 1999. Industrial machinery and equipment
increased $0.9 billion or 2.2 percent to $43.2 billion.

© SHIPMENTS Shipments of durable goods in April decreased $1.6 billion or 0.8 percent to $210.0 billion, following a
2.5 percent March increase. Year-to-date, shipments are 6.8 percent above the same period a year ago.

Transportation equipment had the largest decrease, $1.8 billion or 3.8 percent to $47.0 billion; decreases in motor vehicles
and parts and railroad equipment more than offset an increase in aircraft and parts. Primary metals decreased $0.2 billion or
1.6 percent to $15.8 billion. This is the largest decrease since April 1999. Electronic and other electrical equipment
decreased 0.1 percent to $38.7 billion. Industrial machinery and equipment, led by computer and office equipment,
increased $1.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $42.7 billion.

@ UNFILLED ORDERS Unfilled orders for durable goods in April decreased $4.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $524.4 billion,

following a 1.6 percent March increase. This is the first decrease since June 1999. Electronic and other electrical

equipment had the largest decrease, $3.0 billion or 3.2 percent to $90.8 billion, due to electronic components. This is the

largest decrease since July 1997. Transportation equipment, down twenty of the last twenty-four months, decreased $1.5

billion or 0.7 percent to $228.3 billion. Primary metals, down six consecutive months, decreased $0.2 billion or 0.8 percent

e $3 3 2 pillion. Industrial machinery and equipment, up ten consecutive months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to
85.6 billion.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, DEFENSE New orders in April decreased $1.3 billion or 20.0 percent to $5.1
billion. This is the fourth consecutive decrease. Shipments, down four of the last five months, decreased $0.3 billion or 5.1
percent to $6.3 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $93.6 billion. This is the largest decrease
since August 1999.

© CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE New orders in April increased $0.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $60.9
billion. This is the fourth increase in the last five months. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $1.6 billion
or 2.7 percent to $60.2 billion. Unfilled orders, up five consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $264.7
billion. Excluding aircraft and parts, new orders increased $0.6 billion or 1.1 percent to $53.8 billion; shipments increased
$0.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $52.5 billion; and unfilled orders, up eight consecutive months, increased $1.3 billion or 1.1
percent to $122.1 billion.

@ REVISED MARCH DATA Revised seasonally adjusted March figures for all manufacturing industries are: shipments,
$377.4 billion (revised from $377.1 billion); new orders, $385.3 billion (revised from $383.2 billion); unfilled orders,
$554.5 billion (revised from $552.7 billion); and total inventories, $476.3 billion (revised from $476.2 billion).

Our internet site address is: http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3

This report presents advance information on two key business indicators: durable goods manufacturers’ shipments and orders. Revised and more detailed estimates plus
nondurable goods and inventory data will be published June 2, 2000 at 10:00 AM. The advance report on durable goods for May is scheduled for June 28, 2000 at 8:30
AM. This report is available on the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's online Economic Bulletin Board (N-8-1) (202-482-3870).


Table 1. DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURERS’ SHIP!
(Millions of dollars)

NTS AND ORDERS

Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted"
Item Monthly Percent Change Monthly Percent
change
Ape Mar. Feb. | Mar; | Feb. | Jan- Apr Mar. Apr.
2000 200° 2000 | Apr? | Mar’ Feb. 2000 20007 1999 | Apr.00/99
DURABLE GOODS
Total :

Shipments ....... . 210,021 | 211,645 | 206,555 -08 +25 -14 | 206,157 | 231.451 | 194,694 45.9

New orders’ <2) | | 2 | 20584 | 219719 | 210/255 -64 +45 -1:7 | 205,548 | 237310 | 196,132 +48

Unfilled orders $24'412 | 5287849 | 520,775 + +16] +07 | 530316 | 531425 | 506.344 +48

Excluding defense :

Shipments . 203,721 | 205,003 | 200,550 -06 +22 -13 | 200,243 | 224,217 | 188,539 +62
New orders 00000000 200,470 13,328 | 203,567 -6.0 +48 -17 | 201000 | 229°507 | 191/089 +52
Unfilled orders 430,821 | 434072 | 425,747 “07 +2. +0.7 | 4357059 | 434302 | 408,606 +65

With unfilled orders :

Shipments. -- | 174,429 | 174,303 | 170,606 +0.1 42.2 -12 | 168,627 | 190,346 | 157,582 +7.0
New orders 2222. : 169,992 | 182;377 | 174306 6.8 +46 -116 | 168,018 | 196,205 | 159,020 $5.7
Primary metals :

Shipments : 15,784 16,033 15,969 16 +04 -0. 14,731 +1
New orders ones | 15'540 15,879 15,824 21 +03 15 151068 +44
Unfilled orders. 5 °°? 2. | 31343 31587 | 31.741 08 -05 z 31,092 +46

Industrial machinery and equipment:
Shipments. . 42,686 | 41,298 | 40,193 434 2.7 48.893 | 35,872 +145
New orders eee 43.197 | 42286 | 41/365 +22 +22 “37 48,934 37,830 +97
Unfilled orders |<. ! 85,595, 85,084 | 84,096 | +06 14 85,362 78.976 48.6
Electronic and other
electrical equipment :
Shipments 38,735 38,772 | 37,987 -0.1 +21 “0.1 35,651 41,976 | 30,994 +15.0
New orders eenennes : 35,609 | 44706 | 41,056 | -20.1 489] 49.9 | 36.203 | 451842 35,334 425
Unfilled orders) : 90,762 | 93,798 | 87/864 “3.2 +68) +36 | 93180 | 92628 | 67,008 4301
‘Transportation equipment :
Shipments ceceee 46995 | 48.827 | 46,845 38 +42 37 | 48,382 53,697 | 49,661 26
New orders” |! nt 46,609 -6.7 +45 94 | 46,84) , 43/580 475
Unfilled orders‘ BRI | 258856 | 250000 0.7 01 -O.1 | 230,071 | 231610 | 240°254 42
CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES?
Tota
Shipments oe 66,507 | 65,241 63,332 +19 43.0 27 74,870 +8.6
New orders |... : : 66,039 | 67,028 | _ 64/403 “15 +4 8.2 76.595 +143
Unfilled orders - : 358,243 | 358,711 | 356,924 “01 405} +03 361.413 +12
Nondefense :
Shipments . . o see 60,207 58,599 $7,327 +27 42.2 2.6 $5,877 67,636 +101
New orders : + | 60/925 60.637 | 57,715 405 +51 -89 | 56.662 68,792 +168
Unfilled orders 264,652 | 263,934 | 261,896 +03 +08} +01 | 265075 | 204.290 424
Excluding aircraft and parts :
Shipments . . $2,486 | $2,098 | 50,097 +07 48,193 60,610
New orders _ 33,806 | 33.213 30,977 +11 +44 6.1 9.58 60,843
Unfilled orders ss] 122101 | 120,781 | 119;666 | +11 122'324 | 1217137
Defense :
Shipments 6,300 6,642 6,005 “5.1 | 410.6 -4.0 5,914 7,234 6,155
New orders "|| | : S114 6,391 6,688 | -20.0 44 “18 4548 7803 5,043,
Unfilled orders: : 93,591 94:777 | 95.028 “13 03] 40.7 | 98757 | 97,123 97-738

(NA) Not available, * Revised

" Shipments and new orders are the taals forthe period and are adjusted for trading-day and calendur-moath. variations; unfilled orders are as of the end of the period and are not adjusted for trading-day or ealendar-momth visions

* used on alvance sample, Estimates of manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and orders are subject » survey error and revision, One major component af survey eftur is nonsampling error, whieh ilies enters of coverage,
response and nonreporting. Since the survey panel i aot apeububilty sample, estimates of be calculated, Further details on survey design, methodology, and daca limitations are contained in Yur must Feet ans
‘penchmark publication, Current Industial Repors: M3-(96), 996.

The Capital Goods Industries include Nondefense + ordnance and avcessories

Jworking machinery, special industry
iaratus, communication equipment

nl material handling eames
ng sion equipment, elecrical
“inl ports ships and tank campinens, ra | a seareh and navigation equipment
munication equipment, alteralt, missiles, space vehicles. and part, ships, thks ad nk components, search and navigation equypoent

Defense capital goods include - ordnance,

Table 2. AVERAGE REVISIONS TO PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES
(Based on seasonally adjusted data)

‘Shipments New Orders Untilled Orders

Industry Year ago ‘Apr | Apr. 1999-| Year ago ‘Apr | Apr. 1999-| Year ago Apr | Apr. 1999-

Apr. 1999 | 1995-1999 | Mar. 2000 |_Apr. 1999 | 1995-1999 | Mar. 2000] Apr. 1999] 1995-1999 | Mar. 2000

Durable goods .... : 02 03 i 0.0 04 18 00 ol 05

Primary metals . 02 OS 09 Ol O07 1S OL 03 10

Industrial machinery and equipment 06 05 3.0 O01 06 23 02 02 09
Electronic and other

electrical equipment 13 0.5 17 13 Ll 46 OL 0.5 14

Transportation equipment 0.6 0s 52 0.2 1.0 5.6 ol Ol 08

Nondetense capital goods 04 06 29 02 05 36 im o4 08

Defense capital goods 14 08 53 09 38 53 0d 02 13

estimates, The monthly averages are the simple averages of the differences, without regard t

Note: ‘The revisions are the differences between the month-to-month percent changes of the advance and
for the months specified


Total Durable Goods 3

New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages

Billions of Dollars
225 225

New Orders

215 FF) Shipments - - - - ~~ = = => 5 > 5 4215

Lo 205

195 F- - - ~~ - eT - ee HY 195

ES 185

175 be 1 ! ! ! i i i L 1 | ! wt 175
Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr

Apr. 1998 - Apr. 2000

Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders and Shipments
Three Month Moving Averages
Billions of Dollars

64 64
New Orders

59}-| Shipments | ---------------------------f----5 459

5b4b------------2- i 454

49f-------------------- 2-2 5-5 eee - ee ee eee +449

44 1 1 L 1 in 1 n i 1 L i J. it 44

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb = Apr
Apr. 1998 - Apr. 2000

Note: All Charts based on seasonally
adjusted current dollars.