10 A

- i APPENDIX 10

- A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FO R SHIPMENTS AND NATIONAL

IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEETS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10

- A.1 INTRODUCTION

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- A

- 1

10

- A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS

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- A

- 310

- A

- 1 APPENDIX 10

- A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NATIONAL

IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET S

10

- A.1 INTRODUCTION

The interested reader can examine and reproduce detailed results of the U.S. Department of Energy’s ( DOE’s ) shipments and national impact analysis (NIA) for residential clothes washers using Microsoft Excel sprea dsheets that are available on DOE’s website.

< www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/ residential/clothes_washers.html >

The latest version of the Microsoft Excel shipments and NIA workbook, which is posted on the DOE website, was tested using Microsoft Excel 200 7

. To execute the sprea dsheet requires

Microsoft Excel 2003 or a later version. The N IA spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the change in national energy use and net present value due to an energy conservation standard.

The en ergy use and associated costs and savings attributable to a given standard are determined first by calculating the shipments and then the energy use and costs for all products shipped

under that standard. The d ifferences between results under the standard case and the base case

then can be compared and the nationwide energy savings and net present values (NPVs)

determined.

The shipments and NIA workbook for both front

- and top

- loading residential clothes washers comprises the following worksheets.

Charts C ontains tables and graphs showing summary results of the NIA : product purchase prices

, market shares of front

- and top

- loading

washers

, and hist orical and forecasted shipments under each trial

standard level (TSL )

. Tables present total savings i n energy and

water , discounted incremental product prices, and discounted operating cost savings.

Efficiency Distributions Provides efficiency distributions through year 2044, in terms of shipment

- weighted energy factor , under the base case and each

stan dard level being considered for both front

- and top

- loading

clothes washers

.

Input and Summary Contains user input selections under “User Inputs” an d s ummary table s for the NIA under the chosen CSL

. A summary table gives energy and water savings and those values discounted 7 percent and 3 percent (cumulative to 2044). The worksheet p rovides discounted incremental product prices and operating cost savings and their NPV, along with market shares of front

- and top

- loading

washers. D ata is also provided regarding weighted average energy and water use and price for base and standards cases , along with

value s for machine, standby, water heating, and dryer energy use

.10

- A

- 2 Th e worksheet enables the user to stipulat e t wo parameters for the

calculations : a relative price elasticity effect of

- 0.34, which is the default setting, or no impact; and whether the DOE Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2010 energy price trend reflects an economic case that is reference (default) , low

- growth, or hig h

- growth

.

Historical Shipmen t s Contains historical s hipments of front

- and top

- loading

clothes washers , 1972

– 2008.

RCW Shipments Base Case Provides data and two graphs related to annual historical and projected shipments of clothes washers through 2044 under the base case (the case with no new efficiency standards). The top

chart shows data from 1990

– 2044 and the bottom chart shows

data from 1986

– 2044. Also provides market shares of replacement s and units for new housing , plus the saturation of

clothes washers in households nationwide.

RCW Shipments Standards Provides data and a graph related to the annual historical and

Case projected shipments of clothes washers through 2044 under the

chosen CSL. P rovides market shares of replacements and units for new housing . plus the saturation of clothes washers nationwide.

Base Calc PC Contains shipments (replacement, new, and total)

, product costs,

unit and total energy and water consumption, a nd operating costs

for the base case. The sheet starts with a stock accounting of the chosen product and uses the survival function DOE developed to calculate the surviving stock each year

.

Standards Calc PC Contains shipments (replacement, new, and total), product costs, unit and total energy and water consumption, and operating costs

for the chosen CSL

. Also gives discounted values for costs and savings

.

Housing Projections Contains the projected housing stock, c onstruction starts

, and

demolitions for the three AEO economic scenarios ( r eference, l ow

g rowth, and h igh g rowth)

.

Fuel & Water Prices Contains projected average energy (electricity, gas, and oil) and

wate r prices to 2072 under each of the three AEO economic

scenarios.

Heat Rates Contains the marginal site

- to

- source conversion factors for both electricity and gas DOE used in the calculation of source energy savings.10

- A

- 3 Lifetime C ontains data and the survival function DOE used to calculate clothes washer lifetimes. Presents a graph showing clothes washer lifetimes and gives the current average lifetime (14. 2 years)

.

10

- A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS

Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheet s are given below.

1. After download ing the NIA file from DOE’s w eb site

, use Microsoft Excel to open it . At

the bottom of the workbook , click on the tab for the sheet labeled Input and Summary

. Ensure that calculation options are set to “Automatic.”

2. Use Excel’s “View/Zoom” command in the top menu bar to change the size of the display so that it fit s your monitor.

3. The user can change two of the model parameters listed in the white box label ed “User Inputs

. ” The parameters are:

a. Relative Price Elasticity: Use the drop

- down arrow if you wish t o change the

default value of

- 0.34 to “No i mpact.”

b. Economic Growth: To the change from the default AEO reference case

, use the drop

- down arrow and select the desired g rowth level ( low or h igh).

4. After selecting the parameters, use the cell labeled “TSL Level” to select the trial standard level to analyze. The associated efficiency distributions and growth trends are fixed as specified in Chapter 10 of this preliminary tec hnical support document. After selecting the CSL level , click the “ Enter ” button to make your selected CSL eff ective.

5. The results are automatically updated for both product classes and are reporte d in the summary table to the right of the “User I nputs” box.