[Federal Register Volume 83, Number 146 (Monday, July 30, 2018)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 36479-36482]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2018-16097]


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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

10 CFR Part 430

[EERE-2011-BT-NOA-0013]


Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison With 
Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types

AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of 
Energy.

ACTION: Notice of data availability.

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SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is informing the public of 
its collection of shipment data and creation of spreadsheet models to 
provide comparisons between 2016 and 2017 unit sales and benchmark 
estimate unit sales of five lamp types (i.e., rough service lamps, 
vibration service lamps, 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen 
general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps). For 
3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service 
incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, the 2016 and 2017 
sales are not greater than 200 percent of the forecasted estimates. The 
2016 and 2017 unit sales for vibration service lamps are greater than 
200 percent of the benchmark unit sales estimate. The 2016 unit sales 
for rough service lamps are greater than 200 percent of the benchmark 
unit sales estimate but the 2017 unit sales are below the benchmark 
unit sales estimate. DOE has prepared, and is making available on its 
website, a spreadsheet showing the comparisons of projected sales 
versus 2016 and 2017 sales, as well as the model used to generate the 
original sales estimates. The spreadsheet is available online at: 
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16.

DATES: As of July 30, 2018, the DOE has determined that no regulatory 
action is necessary at this time.

ADDRESSES: The docket, which includes Federal Register notices, 
comments, and other supporting documents/materials, is available for 
review at http://www.regulations.gov. All documents in the docket are 
listed in the http://www.regulations.gov index. However, some documents 
listed in the index, such as those containing information that is 
exempt from public disclosure, may not be publicly available.
    A link to the docket web page can be found at https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16. The docket web page contains simple 
instructions on how to access all documents, including public comments, 
in the docket.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
    Ms. Lucy deButts, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy 
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies, EE-5B, 1000 
Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: (202) 
287-1604. Email: <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#38794848545159565b5d6b4c59565c594a5c4b694d5d4b4c5157564b785d5d165c575d165f574e"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="e4a59494888d858a8781b790858a8085968097b5918197908d8b8a97a48181ca808b81ca838b92">[email protected]</span></a>.
    Mr. Peter Cochran, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General 
Counsel, GC-33, 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121. 
Telephone: (202) 586-9496. Email: <a href="/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c8b8adbcadbae6aba7aba0baa9a688a0b9e6aca7ade6afa7be"><span class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="becedbcadbcc90ddd1ddd6ccdfd0fed6cf90dad1db90d9d1c8">[email protected]</span></a>.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Table of Contents

I. Background
II. Definitions
    A. Rough Service Lamps
    B. Vibration Service Lamps
    C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
    D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps
    E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
III. Comparison Methodology
IV. Comparison Results
    A. Rough Service Lamps
    B. Vibration Service Lamps
    C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps
    D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps
    E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps
V. Conclusion

I. Background

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007; Pub. 
L. 110-140) was enacted on December 19, 2007. Among the requirements of 
subtitle B (Lighting Energy Efficiency) of title III of EISA 2007 were 
provisions directing DOE to collect, analyze, and monitor unit sales of 
five lamp types (i.e., rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 3-
way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent 
lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps). In relevant part, section 
321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 325(l) of the Energy Policy 
and Conservation Act of 1975

[[Page 36480]]

(EPCA) by adding paragraph (4)(B), which generally directs DOE, in 
consultation with the National Electrical Manufacturers Association 
(NEMA), to: (1) Collect unit sales data for each of the five lamp types 
for calendar years 1990 through 2006 in order to determine the 
historical growth rate for each lamp type; and (2) construct a model 
for each of the five lamp types based on coincident economic indicators 
that closely match the historical annual growth rates of each lamp type 
to provide a neutral comparison benchmark estimate of future unit 
sales. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(B)) Section 321(a)(3)(B) of EISA 2007 also 
amends section 325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraph (4)(C), which, in 
relevant part, directs DOE to collect unit sales data for calendar 
years 2010 through 2025, in consultation with NEMA, for each of the 
five lamp types. DOE must then compare the actual lamp sales in that 
year with the benchmark estimate. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(C)) If DOE 
finds that the unit sales for a given lamp type in any year between 
2010 and 2025 exceed the benchmark estimate of unit sales by at least 
100 percent (i.e., are greater than 200 percent of the anticipated 
sales), DOE must issue a finding within 90 days of the end of the 
analyzed calendar year that the estimate has been exceeded. (42 U.S.C. 
6295(l)(4)(D)(i)(I), (E)(i)(I), (F)(i)(I), and (H)(i)(I)).\1\
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    \1\ For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, 
EPCA does not specify a requirement to publish such findings, but as 
discussed further in this notice, EPCA does establish requirements 
upon the benchmark estimate being exceeded.
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    On December 18, 2008, DOE issued a notice of data availability 
(NODA) for the Report on Data Collection and Estimated Future Unit 
Sales of Five Lamp Types (hereafter the ``2008 analysis''), which was 
published in the Federal Register on December 24, 2008. 73 FR 79072. 
The 2008 analysis presented the 1990 through 2006 shipment data 
collected in consultation with NEMA, the spreadsheet model DOE 
constructed for each lamp type, and the benchmark unit sales estimates 
for 2010 through 2025. On April 4, 2011, DOE published a NODA in the 
Federal Register announcing the availability of updated spreadsheet 
models presenting the benchmark estimates from the 2008 analysis and 
the collected sales data from 2010 for the first annual comparison. 76 
FR 18425. Similarly, DOE published NODAs in the Federal Register in the 
following five years announcing the updated spreadsheet models and 
sales data for the annual comparisons. 77 FR 16183 (March 20, 2012); 78 
FR 15891 (March 13, 2013); 79 FR 15058 (March 18, 2014); 80 FR 13791 
(March 17, 2015); 81 FR 20261 (April 7, 2016). This NODA presents the 
seventh comparison; specifically, section IV of this report compares 
the actual unit sales against benchmark unit sales estimates for 2016 
and 2017.\2\
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    \2\ The notices and related documents for the 2008 analysis and 
successive annual comparisons, including this NODA, are available 
through the DOE website at: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16.
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    EISA 2007 also amended section 325(l) of EPCA by adding paragraphs 
(4)(D) through (4)(H), which state that if DOE finds that the unit 
sales for a given lamp type in any year between 2010 and 2025 exceed 
the benchmark estimate of unit sales by at least 100 percent (i.e., are 
greater than 200 percent of the anticipated sales), then DOE must take 
regulatory action for such lamps. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D) through (H)) 
For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, DOE must 
impose a statutorily prescribed maximum-wattage level and packaging 
requirement. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(G)) For the other four types of 
lamps, the statute requires DOE to initiate an accelerated rulemaking 
to establish energy conservation standards. If the Secretary does not 
complete the accelerated rulemakings within one year from the end of 
the previous calendar year, EPCA specifies maximum wattage and related 
requirements (i.e., a ``backstop requirement'') for each lamp type. (42 
U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)(ii), (E)(ii), (F)(ii), and (H)(ii))
    As in the 2008 analysis and previous comparisons, DOE uses 
manufacturer shipments as a surrogate for unit sales in this NODA 
because manufacturer shipment data are tracked and aggregated by the 
trade organization, NEMA. DOE believes that annual shipments track 
closely with actual unit sales of these five lamp types, as DOE 
presumes that retailer inventories remain constant from year to year. 
DOE believes this is a reasonable assumption because the markets for 
these five lamp types have existed for many years, thereby enabling 
manufacturers and retailers to establish appropriate inventory levels 
that reflect market demand. In addition, increasing unit sales must 
eventually result in increasing manufacturer shipments. This is the 
same methodology presented in DOE's 2008 analysis and subsequent annual 
comparisons, and DOE did not receive any comments challenging this 
assumption or the general approach.

II. Definitions

A. Rough Service Lamps

    Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA 
by adding the definition of a ``rough service lamp.'' A ``rough service 
lamp'' means a lamp that--(i) has a minimum of 5 supports with filament 
configurations that are C-7A, C-11, C-17, and C-22 as listed in Figure 
6-12 of the 9th edition of the IESNA [Illuminating Engineering Society 
of North America] Lighting handbook, or similar configurations where 
lead wires are not counted as supports; and (ii) is designated and 
marketed specifically for ``rough service'' applications, with--(I) the 
designation appearing on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing 
materials that identify the lamp as being for rough service. (42 U.S.C. 
6291(30)(X))
    As noted above, rough service incandescent lamps must have a 
minimum of five filament support wires (not counting the two connecting 
leads at the beginning and end of the filament), and must be designated 
and marketed for ``rough service'' applications. This type of 
incandescent lamp can be used in applications where the lamp would be 
subject to mechanical shock or vibration while it is operating. Other 
incandescent lamps have only two support wires (which also serve as 
conductors), one at each end of the filament coil. When operating 
(i.e., when the tungsten filament is glowing so hot that it emits 
light), rough service applications could cause an incandescent lamp's 
filament to break prematurely. To address this problem, lamp 
manufacturers developed lamp designs that incorporate additional 
support wires along the length of the filament to ensure that it has 
support not just at each end, but at several other points as well. The 
additional support protects the filament during operation and enables 
longer operating life for incandescent lamps in rough service 
applications.

B. Vibration Service Lamps

    Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA 
by adding the definition of a ``vibration service lamp.'' A ``vibration 
service lamp'' means a lamp that--(i) has filament configurations that 
are C-5, C-7A, or C-9, as listed in Figure 6-12 of the 9th Edition of 
the IESNA Lighting Handbook or similar configurations; (ii) has a 
maximum wattage of 60 watts; (iii) is sold at retail in packages of 2 
lamps or less; and (iv) is designated and marketed specifically for 
vibration service or vibration-resistant applications, with--(I) the 
designation

[[Page 36481]]

appearing on the lamp packaging; and (II) marketing materials that 
identify the lamp as being vibration service only. (42 U.S.C. 
6291(30)(AA))
    The statute mentions three examples of filament configurations for 
vibration service lamps in Figure 6-12 of the IESNA Lighting Handbook, 
one of which, C-7A, is also listed in the statutory definition of 
``rough service lamp.'' The definition of ``vibration service lamp'' 
requires that such lamps have a maximum wattage of 60 watts and be sold 
at a retail level in packages of two lamps or fewer. Vibration service 
lamps must be designated and marketed for vibration service or 
vibration-resistant applications. As the name suggests, this type of 
incandescent lamp can be used in applications where the incandescent 
lamp would be subject to a continuous low level of vibration, such as 
in a ceiling fan light kit. In such applications, incandescent lamps 
without additional filament support wires may not achieve the full 
rated life, because the filament wire is brittle and would be subject 
to breakage at typical operating temperature. To address this problem, 
lamp manufacturers typically use a more malleable tungsten filament to 
avoid damage and short circuits between coils.

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps

    Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA 
by adding the definition of a ``3-way incandescent lamp.'' A ``3-way 
incandescent lamp'' includes an incandescent lamp that--(i) employs 2 
filaments, operated separately and in combination, to provide 3 light 
levels; and (ii) is designated on the lamp packaging and marketing 
materials as being a 3-way incandescent lamp. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(Y))
    Three-way lamps are commonly found in wattage combinations such as 
50, 100, and 150 watts or 30, 70, and 100 watts. These lamps use two 
filaments (e.g., a 30-watt and a 70-watt filament) and can be operated 
separately or together to produce three different lumen outputs (e.g., 
305 lumens with one filament, 995 lumens with the other, or 1,300 
lumens using the filaments together). When used in three-way sockets, 
these lamps allow users to control the light level. Three-way 
incandescent lamps are typically used in residential multi-purpose 
areas, where consumers may adjust the light level to be appropriate for 
the task they are performing.

D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps

    The statute does not provide a definition of ``2,601-3,300 Lumen 
General Service Incandescent Lamps;'' however, DOE is interpreting this 
term to be a general service incandescent lamp \3\ that emits light 
between 2,601 and 3,300 lumens. These lamps are used in general service 
applications when high light output is needed.
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    \3\ ``The term `general service incandescent lamp' means a 
standard incandescent or halogen type lamp that--(I) is intended for 
general service applications; (II) has a medium screw base; (III) 
has a lumen range of not less than 310 lumens and not more than 
2,600 lumens or, in the case of a modified spectrum lamp, not less 
than 232 lumens and not more than 1,950 lumens; and (IV) is capable 
of being operated at a voltage range at least partially within 110 
and 130 volts.'' (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(D)(i))
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E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps

    Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA 
by adding the definition of a ``shatter-resistant lamp, shatter-proof 
lamp, or shatter-protected lamp.'' ``Shatter-resistant lamp, shatter-
proof lamp, and shatter-protected lamp'' mean a lamp that--(i) has a 
coating or equivalent technology that is compliant with NSF/ANSI 51 
[National Sanitation Foundation/American National Standards Institute] 
and is designed to contain the glass if the glass envelope of the lamp 
is broken; and (ii) is designated and marketed for the intended 
application, with--(I) the designation on the lamp packaging; and (II) 
marketing materials that identify the lamp as being shatter-resistant, 
shatter-proof, or shatter-protected. (42 U.S.C. 6291(30)(Z)) Although 
the definition provides three names commonly used to refer to these 
lamps, DOE simply refers to them collectively as ``shatter-resistant 
lamps.''
    Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a special coating designed to 
prevent glass shards from being dispersed if a lamp's glass envelope 
breaks. Shatter-resistant lamps incorporate a coating compliant with 
industry standard NSF/ANSI 51,\4\ ``Food Equipment Materials,'' and are 
labeled and marketed as shatter-resistant, shatter-proof, or shatter-
protected. Some types of the coatings can also protect the lamp from 
breakage in applications subject to heat and thermal shock that may 
occur from water, sleet, snow, soldering, or welding.
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    \4\ NSF/ANSI 51 applies specifically to materials and coatings 
used in the manufacturing of equipment and objects destined for 
contact with foodstuffs.
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III. Comparison Methodology

    In the 2008 analysis, DOE reviewed each of the five sets of 
shipment data that was collected in consultation with NEMA and applied 
two curve fits to generate unit sales estimates for the five lamp types 
after calendar year 2006. One curve fit applied a linear regression to 
the historical data and extended that line into the future. The other 
curve fit applied an exponential growth function to the shipment data 
and projected unit sales into the future. For this calculation, linear 
regression treats the year as a dependent variable and shipments as the 
independent variable. The linear regression curve fit is modeled by 
minimizing the differences among the data points and the best curve-fit 
linear line using the least squares function.\5\ The exponential curve 
fit is also a regression function and uses the same least squares 
function to find the best fit. For some data sets, an exponential curve 
provides a better characterization of the historical data, and, 
therefore, a better projection of the future data.
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    \5\ The least squares function is an analytical tool that DOE 
uses to minimize the sum of the squared residual differences between 
the actual historical data points and the modeled value (i.e., the 
linear curve fit). In minimizing this value, the resulting curve fit 
will represent the best fit possible to the data provided.
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    For 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service 
incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, DOE found that the 
linear regression and exponential growth curve fits produced nearly the 
same estimates of unit sales (i.e., the difference between the two 
forecasted values was less than 1 or 2 percent). However, for rough 
service and vibration service lamps, the linear regression curve fit 
projected lamp unit sales would decline to zero for both lamp types by 
2018. In contrast, the exponential growth curve fit projected a more 
gradual decline in unit sales, such that lamps would still be sold 
beyond 2018, and it was, therefore, considered the more realistic 
forecast. While DOE was satisfied that either the linear regression or 
exponential growth spreadsheet model generated a reasonable benchmark 
unit sales estimate for 3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen 
general service incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps, DOE 
selected the exponential growth curve fit for these lamp types for 
consistency with the selection made for rough service and vibration 
service lamps.\6\ DOE examines

[[Page 36482]]

the benchmark unit sales estimates and actual sales for each of the 
five lamp types in the following section and also makes the comparisons 
available in a spreadsheet online: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=16.
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    \6\ This selection is consistent with the previous annual 
comparisons. See DOE's 2008 forecast spreadsheet models of the lamp 
types for greater detail on the estimates.
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IV. Comparison Results

A. Rough Service Lamps

    On October 18, 2016, DOE published a notice announcing that the 
actual unit sales for rough service lamps were 219.7 percent of the 
benchmark estimate for the 2015 calendar year. 81 FR 71794, 71800.\7\ 
For the 2016 and 2017 calendar years, the exponential growth forecast 
projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for rough service lamps to 
be 4,722,000 and 4,489,000 units respectively. The NEMA-provided 
shipment data reported shipments of 9,674,000 units in 2016 and 
5,860,000 units in 2017. These findings are 204.9 and 130.5 percent of 
the benchmark estimate.
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    \7\ The October 2016 finding for rough service lamps was the 
result of a correction by NEMA to the data it initially submitted 
and relied upon by DOE for the April 7, 2016 notice. See, https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0051-0075.
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    Since unit sales for rough service lamps exceeded 200 percent of 
the benchmark estimate in 2015, and DOE did not complete an energy 
conservation standards rulemaking for these lamps by the end of 
calendar year 2016, the backstop requirement was triggered. DOE 
published a final rule on December 26, 2017, to adopt the statutory 
backstop requirements for rough service lamps which require that rough 
service lamps: (I) Have a shatter-proof coating or equivalent 
technology that is compliant with NSF/ANSI 51 and is designed to 
contain the glass if the glass envelope of the lamp is broken and to 
provide effective containment over the life of the lamp; (II) have a 
maximum 40-watt limitation; and (III) be sold at retail only in a 
package containing 1 lamp. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(D)(ii)) DOE will 
continue to collect and model data for rough service lamps for two 
years after the effective date of January 25, 2018, in accordance with 
42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(I)(ii).

B. Vibration Service Lamps

    On April 7, 2016, DOE published a notice announcing that the actual 
unit sales for vibration service lamps were 272.5 percent of the 
benchmark estimate for the 2015 calendar year. 81 FR 20261. For the 
2016 and 2017 calendar years, the exponential growth forecast projected 
the benchmark unit sales estimate for vibration service lamps to be 
2,467,000 and 2,345,000 units respectively. The NEMA-provided shipment 
data reported shipments of 6,869,000 units in 2016 and 6,018,000 units 
in 2017. These findings are 278.5 and 256.6 percent of the benchmark 
estimate.
    Similar to rough service lamps, since unit sales for vibration 
service lamps exceeded 200 percent of the benchmark estimate in 2015, 
and DOE did not complete an energy conservation standards rulemaking 
for these lamps by the end of calendar year 2016, the backstop 
requirement was triggered. DOE published a final rule on December 26, 
2017 to adopt the statutory backstop requirements for vibration service 
lamps which require that vibration service lamps: (I) Have a maximum 
40-watt limitation; and (II) be sold at retail only in a package 
containing 1 lamp. (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(4)(E)(ii)) DOE will continue to 
collect and model data for vibration service lamps for two years after 
the effective date of January 25, 2018, in accordance with 42 U.S.C. 
6295(l)(4)(I)(ii).

C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps

    For 3-way incandescent lamps, the exponential growth forecast 
projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2016 to be 48,104,000 
units and for 2017 to be 47,610,000 units. The NEMA-provided shipment 
data reported shipments of 31,768,000 units in 2016 and 28,468,000 
units in 2017. As these findings are only 66 percent and 60 percent of 
the benchmark estimate respectively, DOE will continue to track 3-way 
incandescent lamp sales data and will not initiate an accelerated 
standards rulemaking for this lamp type at this time.

D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps

    For 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, the 
exponential growth forecast projected the benchmark unit sales estimate 
for 2016 to be 34,241,000 units and for 2017 to be 34,307,000 units. 
The NEMA-provided shipment data reported shipments of 3,679,000 units 
in 2016 and 2,794,000 units in 2017. As these findings are 10.7 and 8.1 
percent of the benchmark estimate respectively, DOE will continue to 
track 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamp sales data 
and will not impose statutory requirements for this lamp type at this 
time.

E. Shatter-Resistant Lamps

    For shatter-resistant lamps, the exponential growth forecast 
projected the benchmark unit sales estimate for 2016 to be 1,679,000 
units and for 2017 to be 1,684,000 units. The NEMA-provided shipment 
data reported shipments of 548,000 units in 2016 and 474,000 units in 
2017. As these findings are only 32.6 and 28.2 percent of the benchmark 
estimate respectively, DOE will continue to track shatter-resistant 
lamp sales data and will not initiate an accelerated standards 
rulemaking for this lamp type at this time.

V. Conclusion

    This NODA compares the 2016 and 2017 shipments against benchmark 
unit sales estimates for rough service lamps, vibration service lamps, 
3-way incandescent lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service 
incandescent lamps, and shatter-resistant lamps. For 3-way incandescent 
lamps, 2,601-3,300 lumen general service incandescent lamps, and 
shatter-resistant lamps, the 2016 and 2017 sales are not greater than 
200 percent of the forecasted estimates. The 2016 and 2017 unit sales 
for vibration service lamps are greater than 200 percent of the 
benchmark unit sales estimate. The 2016 unit sales for rough service 
lamps are greater than 200 percent of the benchmark unit sales estimate 
but the 2017 unit sales are below the benchmark unit sales estimate. 
DOE will continue to monitor these lamp types and will assess 2018 unit 
sales next year.

    Signed in Washington, DC, on July 20, 2018.
Kathleen B. Hogan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency and 
Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. 2018-16097 Filed 7-27-18; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 6450-01-P


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