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Outlook for the 2023 Hurricane season








  
  
    

  
      



2023 Hurricane Season Summary

**The Atlantic basin saw above-normal activity during the 2023 hurricane season** – 2023 was ranked 4th for the most named storms in a year since 1950, with **20 named storms**. Seven of these storms became hurricanes, and three became major hurricanes of category 3 or higher. On average, the Atlantic basin experiences 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes per season.

**The eastern Pacific basin also saw above-normal activity during the 2023 hurricane season** with **17 named storms**, 10 of which became hurricanes, and eight became major hurricanes. This included Tropical Storm Hilary, which brought widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to Southern California, with some areas receiving up to 600% of their normal August rainfall. The 2023 hurricane season also featured **four tropical cyclones in the central Pacific**, which typically sees four to five tropical cyclones per year. Visit NOAA’s 2023 hurricane season summary to learn more.
                        2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook August 10 update
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2023 to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). During the six-month hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends on November 30, NOAA is now forecasting a range of 14–21 named storms sustained with winds of 39 mph or higher, with 6–11 of those becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 2–5 becoming major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher). Please note that these updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season. The 30-year averages for the Atlantic basin (1991–2020) are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The central Pacific, which includes Hawaii, is also forecasted to have an above-normal season this year, with a forecasted range of 4–7 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. On average, the central Pacific experiences 4–5 tropical cyclones annually, including 1.5 hurricanes per year.

2023 is predicted to be a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a range of 12 – 17 named storms sustained with winds of 39 mph or higher, with 5 – 9 of those becoming hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, and 1 – 4 becoming major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Image source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Slide1.JPG

2023 is predicted to be a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a range of 12 – 17 named storms sustained with winds of 39 mph or higher, with 5 – 9 of those becoming hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, and 1 – 4 becoming major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher. The 30-year averages for the Atlantic basin (1991-2020) are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. By contrast, the central Pacific, which includes Hawaii, is forecasted to have an above-normal season this year, with a forecasted range of 4 – 7 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. On average, the central Pacific experiences 4 – 5 tropical cyclones annually, including 1.5 hurricanes per year.

Dengue and Hurricanes

Dengue, a viral disease spread to people through the bite of infected *Aedes* species mosquitoes, is common throughout the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world, including some U.S. territories and freely associated states. Some continental states have also reported local dengue spread like Arizona (2022), Florida (2013, 2020, 2022), and Texas (2013, 2020). As with other pathogens carried by insects, the spread of dengue is highly dependent on environmental conditions.

While *Aedes* species mosquitoes generally do not survive the high winds and flooding that hurricanes bring, mosquito eggs can survive. Natural and manmade containers filled with rain or used for water storage provide an excellent environment for eggs to hatch and larvae to grow. It is common for mosquito populations to decrease during and immediately after a hurricane, and then grow rapidly, as was seen approximately two weeks after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017. Increasing numbers ofmosquitoes, combined with the destruction of housing and infrastructure, temporary or permanent human migration, and interruptions to mosquito control measures, can raisethe risk of dengue transmission in the weeks that follow a hurricane.

People can take steps to protect themselves and their families from mosquito bites by using Environmental Protection Agency-registered insect repellent; wearing loose-fitting, long-sleeved shirts and pants; controlling mosquitoes in and around their homes; and having children 9-16 years old who live in dengue-endemic areas and have laboratory confirmation of a previous dengue infection get a dengue vaccine.

Mosquito
Hurricanes Affect Health in Many Ways

Hurricanes increase the risk for a diverse range of health outcomes. For example:

Flood water poses **drowning risks**for everyone, including those driving in flood waters. Storm surge historically is the leading cause of hurricane-related deaths in the United States.
	Winds can blow debris—like pieces of broken glass and other objects—at high speeds. Flying debris is the most common cause of **injury**during a hurricane.
	Open wounds and rashes **exposed to flood waters**can become infected.
	Using generators improperly can cause carbon monoxide [CO] exposure, which can lead to **loss of consciousness**and **death**. Over 400 people die each year from accidental CO poisoning.
	Post-flooding mold presents risks for people with **asthma, allergies**, or **other breathing conditions**.
	Power failure during or after hurricanes can **harm patients**who critically depend on electricity-dependent medical equipment.Health Impacts From Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Healthcare Cost and Utilization Projectgraph (H-CUP) graph shows the observed changes in the population rates of treat-and-release emergency department (ED) visits following Hurricane Harvey in August 2017.
This graph shows the observed changes in the population rates of treat-and-release emergency department (ED) visits following Hurricane Harvey in August 2017. Information on ED utilization is based on data from the AHRQ HCUP State Emergency Department Databases (SEDD). Using information from NOAA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), counties that were in the direct path of the hurricane were identified. For these counties, the percent change in the population rate of treat-and-release ED visits during and post-hurricane were compared to the pre-hurricane average utilization rates. Over a 7-week period after the hurricane, the largest increase in population rates of treat-and-release ED visits were observed for respiratory conditions, with relatively smaller increase for infections, injuries and all conditions.
                        Which parts of the country are at high risk from hurricanes?
    The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides information on the risk of different climate hazards across the 50 states and Washington, D.C. through the National Risk Index (NRI) platform.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides information on the risk of different climate hazards across the 50 states and Washington, D.C. through the National Risk Index (NRI) platform. The Risk Index leverages available data for natural hazard and community risk factors to develop a baseline relative risk measurement for each United States county and census tract. **318 counties** across **20 states and D.C.**are estimated to have “very high,” “relatively high,” or “relatively moderate” hurricane risk. In these counties, the total population at risk is **100,504,829 people.**
                        Who is at risk from hurricanes in the counties estimated to have “very high,” “relatively high,” or “relatively moderate” hurricane risk?
    Risk factors vary across the 318 counties identified by FEMA. Of these counties:

**46 (14%)** have a high number* of people aged 65 or over, living alone.

**109 (34%)** have a high number of people without health insurance.

**62 (19%)**have a high number of uninsured children.

**11 (3%)** have a high number of people living in rural areas.

**225 (71%)**have a high number of Black or African American persons.

**81 (25%)** have a high number of people with frequent mental distress.

**109 (34%)** have a high number of people living in poverty.

**53 (17%)** have a high number of people spending a large proportion of their income on home energy.

**195 (61%)**have a high number of people with severe housing cost burden.

**187 (59%)**have a high number of people with electricity-dependent medical equipment and enrolled in the HHS emPOWER program.

**97 (31%)** have a high number of people in mobile homes.

**53 (17%)**have a high number of people with one or more disabilities.

**138 (43%)**are identified as highly vulnerable by CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index.

*“A high number” indicates that these counties are in the top quartile for this indicator compared to other counties
                        Resources to Reduce Health Risks Associated with Hurricanes

Health risks from hurricanes include drowning due to flood water, injuries, carbon monoxide poisoning after a power outage, infection during evacuation or shelter-in-place, post-storm exposure to mold, and psychological distress.
                        Mold After a Hurricane
    If your home has been flooded by a hurricane or other natural disaster, excess moisture and standing water can lead to the growth of mold. Mold could be harmful to your family's health, leading to a stuffy nose, sore throat, coughing, wheezing, burning eyes, or a skin rash. People with asthma, allergies, other breathing conditions, or immune suppression may be more sensitive to mold.

When returning to a home that has been flooded, clean up and dry out the building as quickly as possible. Protect yourself while cleaning by using gloves, a NIOSH-approved N95 mask, and goggles. Keep people with weakened immune systems and children away from the clean-up. Scrub surfaces with water and detergent, taking care not to mix cleaners. Toss anything that cannot be cleaned and dried, taking photos of discarded items for filing insurance claims. Open doors and windows, and when electricity is safe to use, use fans and dehumidifiers to remove moisture.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides additional guidance at Reentering Your Flooded Home and Homeowner’s and Renter’s Guide to Mold Cleanup After Disasters.
                        General Preparedness
    Be ready hurricanes infographic
Image source: https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/infographics/br-hurricanes.htm

Find more resources on hurricane preparedness from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Technical Resources, Assistance Center, and Information Exchange’s (ASPR TRACIE’s) Hurricane Resources at Your Fingertips.
	The Ready.gov Hurricanes site includes information on preparing for hurricanes, staying safe during a storm, and returning home. The Ready Business site also includes a hurricane toolkit for business preparedness.
	The CDC’s Hurricanes and Other Tropical Storms site provides resources to help individuals be prepared for hurricanes and be safe after a hurricane as well as for professionals and response workers.
	The U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Hurricanes: Health and Safety site covers multiple topics to help consumers, industry stakeholders and medical providers prepare for hurricanes, including food and drug safety and using medical devices.
	If you do not have health insurance and are in a federally-identified disaster, the Emergency Prescription Assistance Program can help you get the prescription drugs, vaccinations, medical supplies, and equipment that they need.
	If you have Medicare and your medical device is damaged or lost due to an emergency or disaster, Medicare may cover the cost to repair or replace your equipment or supplies.
	You can locate and access your electronic health records from a variety of sources by using the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' online tool.
	After natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods, excess moisture and standing water contribute to the growth of mold in homes and other buildings. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Mold After a Disaster includes information about who is at greatest risk from mold, the health effects of mold, and preventing mold growth.8 tips to clean up mold infographic
Image source: https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/mold/index.html
                        Mental Health
    It’s normal for hurricanes and other extreme weather events to cause people to experience emotional distress. Feelings such as overwhelming anxiety, constant worrying, trouble sleeping, and other depression-like symptoms are common responses before, during, and after these types of storms. The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration Helpline and Text Service is available 24/7, free, and staffed by trained crisis counselors. Call or text 1-800-985-5990 to get help and support for any distress that you or someone you care about may be feeling related to any disaster.

Learn more about hurricanes and mental health at the SAMHSA’s Hurricanes and Tropical Storms site. SAMHSA also has other disaster behavioral health resources, including newsletters and tip sheets. ASPR TRACIE’s Disaster Behavioral Health Resources includes information about services for at-risk populations following a disaster.

Check out SAMHSA’s newly launched Climate Change and Health Equity site for more information on the behavioral health impacts of climate change, preparing for a disaster, and resources for disaster planning and climate change education.
                        Best Practices for Emergency Managers
    ASPR TRACIE’s Major Hurricanes: Potential Health and Medical Implications provides a short overview of the potential significant health and medical response and recovery needs facing hurricane- and severe storm-affected areas, based on past experience and lessons learned from Hurricanes Katrina, Sandy, Harvey, Maria, and others. The HHS emPOWER collects and shares de-identified Medicare data to help response agencies take action to protect the health of Medicare beneficiaries who depend on vulnerable electrical medical equipment.
	The CDC’s Emergency Responder Health Monitoring and SurveillanceTM (ERHMSTM) framework provides recommendations for protecting emergency responders during small and large emergencies in any setting.Emergency Responder Health Monitoring and Surveillance (ERHMS) framework
Image source: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/erhms/default.html

The SAMHSA Disaster Technical Assistance Center Supplemental Research Bulletin, *Greater Impact: How Disasters Affect People of Low Socioeconomic Status*, is designed to help disaster behavioral health professionals inform their disaster behavioral health planning for low socioeconomic status populations. SAMHSA also has developed a handbook to support disaster planning by behavioral health programs.
	The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality’s Hospital Evacuation Decision Guidefocuses on post-event evacuations.
	ASPR TRACIE’s After the Flood: Mold-Specific Resources collects public messages, fact sheets, checklists, guidance documents, and other educational resources related to mold. They include pre-scripted (and, in some cases, already recorded) PSAs, as they are tangible and ready to implement examples of risk communication materials that can essentially be used immediately.
	The Department of Education offers tools and resources for schools and educational institutions as they manage safety, security, and emergency management programs.
                        Additional Resources for Public Health Safety During Hurricanes
    Hurricanes can cause power outages that make it impossible to cool your home and refrigerate food. Hurricane Ida caused at least 1.2 million electricity customers to lose power. In addition, disasters like hurricanes that strike during the COVID-19 pandemic can further stress the health and medical system and threaten vulnerable residents and infrastructure.

Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Danger Infographic
Image source: https://www.cdc.gov/co/pdfs/Flyer_Danger.pdf

The CDC has information about What You Need to Know When the Power Goes Out Unexpectedly. To prevent carbon monoxide poisoning, use generators, pressure washers, grills, and similar items outdoors only. Generators should be used at least 20 feet away from your home.
	The CDC’s Going to a Public Disaster Shelter During the COVID-19 Pandemic provides guidance on measures to reduce the possible spread of COVID-19 among people who seek safety in a disaster shelter during severe weather events.
	Considerations for healthcare and emergency management professionals when planning for all-hazard secondary disasters during a public health emergency are available from ASPR TRACIE.
	The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Exercise Starter Kit for Preparedness in a Pandemic offers ready-to-use materials and templates to your own planning workshop on preparedness in a pandemic.  FEMA also offers Mass Care/Emergency Assistance Pandemic Planning Considerations For State, Local, Tribal, Territorial and Non-Government Organizational Planners, Providers and Support Agencies.
	See the *Extreme Heat* resources section for information on preventing heat-related illness.
                        Clinical Best Practices
    OCCHE’s Referral Guide summarizes resources that can address patients’ social determinants of health and mitigate health harms related to climate change. These resources include social services and assistance programs to which patients can be referred, as well as references for anticipatory guidance and counseling to help patients prepare for potential hazards.

                    
  


Content created by Assistant Secretary for Health (ASH) Content last reviewed February 8, 2024 Back to top
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