## Early Progress Plans Demonstrating Progress Toward Attaining the 8-hour National Air Quality Standard for Ozone

and Setting Transportation Conformity Budgets

for Ventura County Antelope Valley - Western Mojave Desert Coachella Valley Eastern Kern County Imperial County

Revised: February 27, 2008

Release Date: February 27, 2008(This page intentionally left blank.)Electronic copies of this documen t can be found on ARB’s website at http://www.arb.ca.gov/p lanning/sip/sip.htm . Alternatively, paper copies may be

obtained from the Public Information Office , Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Visitors and Environmental Services Center, 1 st Floor, Sacrament o, California 95814, (916) 322-2990.

For individuals with sensory disabilities, this document is available in Braille, large print, audiocassette, or computer disk. Please cont act ARB’s Disability Coordinator at (916) 323-4916 by voice or through the California Relay Services at 711, to place your request for disab ility services. If you are a person with limited English and would like to request interpreter services, please contact ARB’s Bilingual Mana ger at (916) 323-7053.

This document has been prepared by the st aff of the California Air Resources Board. Publication does not signify that the contents reflect the views and policies of the Air Resources Board, nor does trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

Please send written comments to:

Mr. Ravi Ramalingam, P.E., Manager

Transportation Strategies Section

California Air Resources Board

P.O. Box 2815 Sacramento, California 95812 Phone: (916) 322-2085

Fax: (916) 322-3646

For general questions, contact:

Mr. Dennis Wade, Air Pollution Specialist

Motor Vehicle Assessments Section Phone: (916) 327-2963

Email: dwade@arb.ca.gov(This page intentionally left blank.)

### Early Progress Plans De monstrating Progress Toward Attaining the Federal 8-hour National Air Quality

Standard for Ozone

TABLE OF CONTENTS

RECOMMENDATION ......................................................................................... 1

BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................1

INVENTORIES AND TRANSPORTAT ION CONFORMITY BUDGETS ...............3

• Ventura County

• Antelope Valley/Western Mojave Desert

• Coachella Valley

• Eastern Kern County

• Imperial County

APPENDIX .............................................................................Appendix-1

• Revisions to Appendix A of the St ate Strategy for California’s 2007 State Implementation Plan(This page intentionally left blank.)1 February 27, 2008 RECOMMENDATION

Air Resources Board (ARB or the Board) staff recommends t hat the Board adopt the ozone Early Progress Plans in this report as amendme nts to the State Implementation Plan (SIP) in order to establish transportation conformity emissions budgets for Ventura County, Antelope Valley - Western Mojave Desert, Coachella Valley, Eastern Kern County and Imperial County. Normally, these conformity budgets would be with set with reasonable further progress (RFP) plans. However, the U.S. Envir onmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) is revising its regulations setting out the r equirements for RFP plans and will not be able to approve RFP plans for these areas until that revision is complete. Setting conformity budgets with these early progr ess plans will allow transportation planning to move forward in the interim.

BACKGROUND

Transportation conformity is a provision of the federal Clean Air Act that requires transportation planning agencies to demonstr ate that their transportation plans, funding programs, and projects are consis tent with (“conform to ”) the SIP. One part of demonstrating conformity is a comparison, by transportation planning agencies, of vehicle emissions from trans portation plans to emissions budgets in the SIP. An emissions budget is the le vel of emissions from on-road motor vehicles that ensures an area makes pr ogress toward clean air and ultimately meets air quality standards by the mandated deadline.

Normally, emissions budgets would be set with an RFP plan. However, U.S. EPA is revising its RFP regulations for areas whose air quality is dominated by pollution from upwind regions. Unt il those revisions are complete, U.S. EPA will not approve RFP plans and related c onformity budgets for these types of

areas.

The transportation planning process still needs conformity budgets, and U.S. EPA’s inability to approv e RFP plans creates a timing problem. To keep the transportation planning process moving, ARB staff has prepared early progress plans for the sole purpose of establis hing transportation conformity emission budgets for the four nonattainment areas ca ught up by U.S. EPA’s revisions, and for Imperial County, whose pending re classification will generate a need for transportation conformity emissions budgets.

An early progress plan is an optional pl an and must simply show some progress

toward attainment. The inventories for each of the five areas dec line in the future with already adopted controls, thereby dem onstrating progress. The plans are simple, containing the inventory dem onstrating progress and the associated budgets.2 February 27, 2008 INVENTORIES AND CONFORMITY BUDGETS

The inventories presented below for stat ionary, area-wide and other mobile

sources for all areas are consistent wit h the emission invent ories submitted to U.S. EPA as part of the State Strategy for California’s 2007 State Implementation

Plan adopted by the Board in September 2007. These inventories contain reductions from adopted regulations only. Consequently, these early progress plans do not create any new regulatory SIP commitments.

The on-road mobile inventories and the transportation conformity budgets are estimated using California’s EMFAC20 07 on-road mobile emissions model. EMFAC2007 was approved by U.S. EPA on January 18, 2008. Transportation conformity budgets are estimated the year before an area’s a ttainment year. This is consistent with U.S. EPA guidance, which states that attainment should

be demonstrated for the last full ozone seas on before an area’s attainment year. Motor vehicle activity data used for all areas except Easter n Kern County was updated by the Southern California Associ ation of Governments (SCAG) in December, 2007 from SCAG’s Draft 2008 Regional Transportation Plan transportation model runs. Transportation ac tivity data for Eastern Kern County

is from the Kern Council of Go vernments provided in January 2008.

REVISIONS TO THE JANUARY 29, 2008 VERSION

After these plans were posted on Januar y 29, 2008, ARB staff discovered that some of the input data used by the on -road emissions estimation model, EMFAC, had been corrupted. This resulted in errors in emissions calculations affecting the inventories and transportation c onformity budgets for Antelope Valley – Western Mojave Desert and Eastern Kern County. The table entries for these areas on the following pages refl ect the corrected numbers.

For Antelope Valley – Western Mojave De sert, the changes result in a new ROG budget in 2009 of 22 tons per day from the original 21 tons per day, and a new NOx budget of 77 tons per day from the or iginal 74 tons. In the case of Eastern Kern County, the ROG budget in 2008 goes from 4 to 5 tons per day, and the NOx budget from 16 to 18 tons per day.

ARB staff consider these changes minor and do not impact t he overall progress

in these two areas.3 February 27, 2008 Ventura County



### Ventura County Summer Planning Emissions Inventory*

Adjusted for Rules and Programs through December 31, 2006

Tons per Day Reductions,

2002-2009

2002 2009 Tons per Day Percent

ROG

Stationary 10.7 10.0

Area-wide 14.1 14.1

On-road Mobile 20.2 12.0

Other Mobile 15.2 14.0

Total ROG 60.3 50.0 10.3 17%

NOx

Stationary 6.5 6.3

Area-wide 1.3 1.3

On-road Mobile 30.1 18.5

Other Mobile 37.5 36.3

Total NOx 75.3 62.4 12.9 17%

* Summer Planning Inventory v.1.06

As shown above, the emissions inventory from all sources shows a 17 percent reduction in both ROG and NOx in 2009 compared to the 2002 base year. This demonstrates significant progress toward attainment of t he federal 8-hour

standard.4 February 27, 2008 

## Ventura County

Transportation Conformity Budgets

Summer Planning Emissions in Tons per Day

2009

ROG NOx

On-Road Emissions from EMFAC2007 12.0 19.0

Off Model Reductions* 0.0 -0.5

Net On-Road Emissions 12.0 18.5

Conformity Budget** 13 19

* Reductions from adopted rules not reflected in EMFAC2007 ** Budget obtained by rounding up to the nearest ton

Presented above are the transportation confo rmity budgets for Ventura County in 2009. EMFAC2007 emission factors were used with motor vehicle activity provided by the Southern California Association of Governments in January 2008.5 February 27, 2008 Antelope Valley – Western Mojave Desert



### Antelope Valley – Western Mojave Desert

Summer Planning Emissions Inventory*

Adjusted for Rules and Programs through December 31, 2006

Tons per Day Reductions,

2002-2009

2002 2009 Tons per Day Percent

ROG

Stationary 12.0 13.2

Area-wide 10.9 11.0

On-road Mobile 28.2 21.9

Other Mobile 20.1 24.4

Total ROG 71.2 70.6 0.6 1%

NOx

Stationary 44.2 50.4

Area-wide 1.0 1.0

On-road Mobile 89.3 76.0

Other Mobile 50.4 40.0

Total NOx 184.9 167.5 17.4 9%

* Summer Planning Inventory v.1.06

As shown above, the emissions inventor y from all sources shows a combined percent reduction of ozone precursors of 10 percent in 2009 compared to the 2002 base year. This demonstrates significa nt progress toward attainment of the

federal 8-hour standard.6 February 27, 2008 

## Antelope Valley - Western Mojave Desert

Transportation Conformity Budgets

Summer Planning Emissions in Tons per Day

2009

ROG NOx

On-Road Emissions from EMFAC2007 22.0 80.6

Off Model Reductions* 0.0 -4.6

Net On-Road Emissions 21.9 76.0

Conformity Budget** 22 77

* Reductions from adopted rules not reflected in EMFAC2007 ** Budget obtained by rounding up to the nearest ton

Presented above are the transportation conformity budgets for the Antelope Valley – Western Mojave Desert in 2009. EMFAC2007 emission factors were used with motor vehicle activity provided by the Southern California Association of Governments in January 2008.7 February 27, 2008 Coachella Valley



### Coachella Valley Summer Planning Emissions Inventory*

Adjusted for Rules and Programs through December 31, 2006

Tons per Day Reductions,

2002-2012

2002 2012 Tons per Day Percent

ROG

Stationary 1.7 2.7

Area-wide 4.7 4.7

On-road Mobile 10.5 6.4

Other Mobile 5.3 4.8

Total ROG 22.3 18.6 3.7 17%

NOx

Stationary 0.9 0.9

Area-wide 0.5 0.4

On-road Mobile 41.0 25.5

Other Mobile 9.3 8.3

Total NOx 51.8 35.1 14.7 32%

* Summer Planning Inventory v.1.06

As shown above, the emissions inventory from all sources shows a 17 percent reduction in ROG and a 32 percent reducti on in NOx in 2012 compared to the 2002 base year. This demonstrates significa nt progress toward attainment of the

federal 8-hour standard.8 February 27, 2008 

## Coachella Valley

Transportation Conformity Budgets

Summer Planning Emissions in Tons per Day

2012

ROG NOx

On-Road Emissions from EMFAC2007 6.5 27.5

Off Model Reductions* 0.0 -2.0

Net On-Road Emissions 6.4 25.5

Conformity Budget** 7 26

* Reductions from adopted rules not reflected in EMFAC2007 ** Budget obtained by rounding up to the nearest ton

Presented above are the transportation c onformity budgets for the Coachella Valley for 2012. EMFAC2007 emission factors were used with motor vehicle activity provided by the Southern Calif ornia Association of Governments.9 February 27, 2008 Eastern Kern County



### Eastern Kern County Summer Planning Emissions Inventory*

Adjusted for Rules and Programs through December 31, 2006

Tons per Day Reductions,

2002-2008

2002 2008 Tons per Day Percent

ROG

Stationary 1.0 1.0

Area-wide 1.5 1.4

On-road Mobile 5.6 4.2

Other Mobile 4.7 4.5

Total ROG 12.8 11.1 1.7 13%

NOx

Stationary 18.2 20.6

Area-wide 0.1 0.1

On-road Mobile 21.1 17.2

Other Mobile 14.1 11.5

Total NOx 53.5 49.5 4.1 8%

* Summer Planning Inventory v.1.06

As shown above, the emissions inventor y from all sources shows a combined percent reduction of ozone precursors of 21 percent in 2008 compared to the 2002 base year. This demonstrates significa nt progress toward attainment of the

federal 8-hour standard.10 February 27, 2008 

## Eastern Kern County

Transportation Conformity Budgets

Summer Planning Emissions in Tons per Day

2008

ROG NOx

On-Road Emissions from EMFAC2007 4.3 20.4

Off Model Reductions* -0.1 -3.2

Net On-Road Emissions 4.2 17.2

Conformity Budget** 5 18

* Reductions from adopted rules not reflected in EMFAC2007 ** Budget obtained by rounding up to the nearest ton

Presented above are the transportation c onformity budgets for Eastern Kern County for 2008. EMFAC2007 emission fa ctors were used with motor vehicle activity provided by the Kern County Council of Governments in January 2008.11 February 27, 2008 Imperial County



### Imperial County Summer Planning Emissions Inventory*

Adjusted for Rules and Programs through December 31, 2006

Tons per Day Reductions,

2002-2009

2002 2009 Tons per Day Percent

ROG

Stationary 1.3 1.4

Area-wide 20.8 20.6

On-road Mobile 8.8 6.9

Other Mobile 6.4 7.4

Total ROG 37.4 36.3 1.1 3%

NOx

Stationary 8.5 8.9

Area-wide 0.9 0.9

On-road Mobile 20.9 16.7

Other Mobile 12.6 10.1

Total NOx 42.9 36.6 6.3 15%

* Summer Planning Inventory v.1.06

As shown above, the emissions inventor y from all sources shows a 3 percent reduction in ROG and a 15 percent reduc tion in NOx in 2009 compared to the 2002 base year. This demonstrates significa nt progress toward attainment of the

federal 8-hour standard.12 February 27, 2008 

## Imperial County

Transportation Conformity Budgets

Summer Planning Emissions in Tons per Day

2009

ROG NOx

On-Road Emissions from EMFAC2007 6.9 17.6

Off Model Reductions* 0.0 -0.9

Net On-Road Emissions 6.9 16.7

Conformity Budget** 7 17

* Reductions from adopted rules not reflected in EMFAC2007 ** Budget obtained by rounding up to the nearest ton

Presented above are the transportation conf ormity budgets for Imperial County

for 2009. EMFAC2007 emission factors we re used with motor vehicle activity provided by the Southern California Association of Governments in January 2008.