Chart 1

Turn on the PivotTable Field List to work with the PivotChart.

Chart 1

Turn on the PivotTable Field List to work with the PivotChart.

Chart 1

Turn on the PivotTable Field List to work with the PivotChart.

TEP Sundt, NO conversion sensitivity tests for AZ RH FIP NPRM, January 2014

sjb 2014-01-06

Control scenarios

base base case

ctrl13 Pipeline Natural Gas (PNG) at NOx 0.22 lb/MMBtu on unit 4

ctrl15 SNCR at 30% control NOx and DSI at 70% control SO2 on unit 4

Assessing the effect of NO-to-NO2 conversion rate assumption

Since TEP Sundt is rather near Saguaro National Park (17 km from receptors in east unit), some of the 

emitted NOx might still be in the form of NO, rather than 100% NO2 as assumed by CALPUFF. 

Additional post-processing was performed to assess the effect of various degrees of conversion of NO to 

NO2. Starting from the CALPUFF modeling for these scenarios (direct from CALPUFF, no POSTUTIL), the NO, 

NO3 and HNO3 concentrations were scaled by 10%, 25%, 50%, and 75% using POSTUTIL. The lowest 

rate of 10% reflects NOx as emitted, with no additional conversion downwind.

This was done only for the Saguaro National Park receptors, considering them all together and also 

considering the east and west units separately.

Normal POSTUTIL nitrate partioning was then performed, assuming a constant 1 ppb ammonia 

background concentration. Finally CALPOST was run using visibility method "8b" (that is, MVISBK=8 for 

the revised IMPROVE equation, and best 20% natural background).

Results

As expected, deciview impacts for the Saguaro NP was a whole were nearly the same as those for the 

nearer eastern unit; impacts at the more distant western unit (25 km or more) were lower. Base case 

impacts remain above 1 dv for all NO conversion scenarios. Impacts scale with the NO conversion rate 

assumed. The benefits of control with SNCR+DSI (ctrl15, the FIP proposal for BART) also scale with the NO 

conversion rate, but more slowly than for the base case, i.e. they are less sensitive to the conversion 

assumption. Benefits at the eastern unit remain at least 0.3 dv, even for the unrealistically low 10% 

conversion assumption. Benefits at the western unit are lower, but remain at least 0.2 dv, even for the 

10% assumption. For PNG (ctrl13, the FIP proposal for better-than-BART alternative), benefits also scale up slightly with 

the NO conversion rate for the western unit, but seem relatively independent of the assumption for the 

eastern unit. The benefits of PNG remain are a bit less than double those of SNCR+DSI, and are above 

0.6 dv for all NO conversion rates and all portions of Saguaro NP.

Conclusion

These results show that the FIP's proposed BART determination remains sound despite any concern 

over NO conversion rate: the visibility improvement from BART is substantial. The finding that PNG 

gives better visibility improvement than proposed BART also remains sound regardless of the NO 

conversion assumed.
10% 25% 50% 75% 100% 10% 25% 50% 75% 100% 10% 25% 50% 75% 100%

base: base case ctrl13: PNG ctrl15: SNCR+DSI

both units 1.98 2.30 2.74 3.14 3.40 0.86 1.10 1.56 1.97 2.35 1.66 1.91 2.32 2.63 2.92

east unit 1.98 2.30 2.72 3.04 3.37 0.86 1.10 1.55 1.92 2.26 1.66 1.91 2.27 2.57 2.88

west unit 1.27 1.53 1.93 2.19 2.56 0.52 0.71 1.06 1.36 1.67 1.07 1.27 1.56 1.83 2.12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

im

pact, d

ecivie

ws (d

v)

Effect of NO-to-NO2 % Conversion Rate

TEP Sundt Visibility Impact on Saguaro NP East and West Portions

(vm8b, 22nd high in '01-'03), EPA RH FIP NPRM Jan. 2014
10% 25% 50% 75% 100% 10% 25% 50% 75% 100% 10% 25% 50% 75% 100%

base: base case ctrl13: PNG ctrl15: SNCR+DSI

both units 1.12 1.21 1.18 1.17 1.06 0.32 0.40 0.42 0.51 0.49

east unit 1.12 1.21 1.16 1.12 1.11 0.32 0.40 0.44 0.47 0.49

west unit 0.75 0.82 0.87 0.83 0.88 0.20 0.26 0.37 0.36 0.44

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

impact, deciviews (dv)

Effect of NO-to-NO2 % Conversion Rate

Benefit of Control on TEP Sundt in Saguaro NP East and West Portions

(vm8b, 22nd high in '01-'03), EPA RH FIP NPRM Jan. 2014
TEP Sundt, AZ RH FIP NPRM

Pivot table, rearranges data in 'ddv_table_n822_Sundt_NOxconvset' sheet, and is basis for pivot chart in 'Impacts' sheet.

Sum of 22nd '01-'03 Saguaro portion

Scenario both units east unit west unit

base: base case

10% 1.98 1.98 1.27

25% 2.30 2.30 1.53

50% 2.74 2.72 1.93

75% 3.14 3.04 2.19

100% 3.40 3.37 2.56

ctrl13: PNG

10% 0.86 0.86 0.52

25% 1.10 1.10 0.71

50% 1.56 1.55 1.06

75% 1.97 1.92 1.36

100% 2.35 2.26 1.67

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI

10% 1.66 1.66 1.07

25% 1.91 1.91 1.27

50% 2.32 2.27 1.56

75% 2.63 2.57 1.83

100% 2.92 2.88 2.12

Benefit of Control

Saguaro portion

Control Scenario NO conversion rateboth unitseast unit west unit

base: base case 10%

25%

50%

75%

100%

ctrl13: PNG 10% 1.12 1.12 0.75

25% 1.21 1.21 0.82

50% 1.18 1.16 0.87

75% 1.17 1.12 0.83

100% 1.06 1.11 0.88

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 10% 0.32 0.32 0.20

25% 0.40 0.40 0.26

50% 0.42 0.44 0.37

75% 0.51 0.47 0.36

100% 0.49 0.49 0.44
mpacts' sheet.
TEP Sundt at various NO-to-NO2 Conversion Rates, Arizona RH FIP, January 2014

Results extracted from CALPOST.LST files (See "filegroup") 2001 2002

ddv_n8 ddv_n8

scenario

NOx 

conversi

area 

portion fac scen mvsbg area year filegroup 8th 2001 8th 2002

base: base case 100% both unitssundt base vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_baserf_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 3.37 3.254

base: base case 100% east unit sundt base vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_baserf_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 3.37 3.039

base: base case 100% west unitsundt base vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_baserf_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 2.556 2.272

ctrl13: PNG 100% both unitssundt ctrl13 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl13_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 2.506 2.224

ctrl13: PNG 100% east unit sundt ctrl13 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl13_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 2.506 2.198

ctrl13: PNG 100% west unitsundt ctrl13 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl13_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.709 1.55

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 100% both unitssundt ctrl15 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl15_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 3.036 2.892

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 100% east unit sundt ctrl15 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl15_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 3.036 2.692

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 100% west unitsundt ctrl15 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl15_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 2.116 1.961

base: base case 10% both unitssundt base-ns10 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_base-ns10_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 1.851 1.944

base: base case 10% east unit sundt base-ns10 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_base-ns10_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 1.851 1.944

base: base case 10% west unitsundt base-ns10 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_base-ns10_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.339 1.154

base: base case 25% both unitssundt base-ns25 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_base-ns25_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 2.221 2.118

base: base case 25% east unit sundt base-ns25 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_base-ns25_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 2.221 2.117

base: base case 25% west unitsundt base-ns25 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_base-ns25_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.531 1.307

base: base case 50% both unitssundt base-ns50 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_base-ns50_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 2.613 2.417

base: base case 50% east unit sundt base-ns50 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_base-ns50_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 2.613 2.384

base: base case 50% west unitsundt base-ns50 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_base-ns50_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.811 1.648

base: base case 75% both unitssundt base-ns75 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_base-ns75_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 2.977 2.921

base: base case 75% east unit sundt base-ns75 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_base-ns75_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 2.977 2.655

base: base case 75% west unitsundt base-ns75 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_base-ns75_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 2.187 2.005

ctrl13: PNG 10% both unitssundt ctrl13-ns10 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns10_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 0.757 0.816

ctrl13: PNG 10% east unit sundt ctrl13-ns10 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns10_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 0.757 0.816

ctrl13: PNG 10% west unitsundt ctrl13-ns10 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns10_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 0.534 0.478

ctrl13: PNG 25% both unitssundt ctrl13-ns25 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns25_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 1.126 1.023

ctrl13: PNG 25% east unit sundt ctrl13-ns25 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns25_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 1.126 1.018

ctrl13: PNG 25% west unitsundt ctrl13-ns25 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns25_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 0.677 0.664

ctrl13: PNG 50% both unitssundt ctrl13-ns50 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns50_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 1.714 1.387

ctrl13: PNG 50% east unit sundt ctrl13-ns50 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns50_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 1.714 1.379

ctrl13: PNG 50% west unitsundt ctrl13-ns50 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns50_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.086 0.958

ctrl13: PNG 75% both unitssundt ctrl13-ns75 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns75_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 2.23 1.817

ctrl13: PNG 75% east unit sundt ctrl13-ns75 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns75_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 2.23 1.796

ctrl13: PNG 75% west unitsundt ctrl13-ns75 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl13-ns75_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.409 1.264

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 10% both unitssundt ctrl15-ns10 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns10_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 1.608 1.647

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 10% east unit sundt ctrl15-ns10 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns10_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 1.608 1.647

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 10% west unitsundt ctrl15-ns10 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns10_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.093 0.969

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 25% both unitssundt ctrl15-ns25 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns25_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 1.914 1.865

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 25% east unit sundt ctrl15-ns25 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns25_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 1.914 1.81

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 25% west unitsundt ctrl15-ns25 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns25_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.274 1.164

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 50% both unitssundt ctrl15-ns50 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns50_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 2.317 2.082

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 50% east unit sundt ctrl15-ns50 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns50_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 2.317 2.035

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 50% west unitsundt ctrl15-ns50 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns50_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.546 1.435

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 75% both unitssundt ctrl15-ns75 vm8b saguboth mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns75_vm8b_saguboth_2001.lst 2.682 2.487

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 75% east unit sundt ctrl15-ns75 vm8b sagueast mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns75_vm8b_sagueast_2001.lst 2.682 2.372

ctrl15: SNCR+DSI 75% west unitsundt ctrl15-ns75 vm8b saguwest mult ct_sundt_ctrl15-ns75_vm8b_saguwest_2001.lst 1.83 1.751
2003 '01-'03 '01-'03 2001 2002 2003 '01-'03 2001 2002 2003 '01-'03

ddv_n8 avg mrg22 n_ddv>0.5 n_ddv>0.5 n_ddv>0.5 sum n_ddv>1 n_ddv>1 n_ddv>1 sum

8th 2003

avg '01-

'03 8th

22nd '01-

'03

2001 

#days>0.5

2002 

#days>0.5

2003 

#days>0.5

'01-'03 

#days>0.5

2001 

#days>1

2002 

#days>1

2003 

#days>1

'01-'03 

#days>1

3.462 3.362 3.403 233 240 208 681 156 156 131 443

3.462 3.290333 3.371 150 178 144 472 94 112 88 294

2.741 2.523 2.556 109 89 93 291 70 50 54 174

2.259 2.329667 2.346 177 180 154 511 74 91 72 237

2.252 2.318667 2.259 108 131 103 342 42 66 43 151

1.67 1.643 1.672 83 58 64 205 34 25 30 89

2.894 2.940667 2.915 215 219 195 629 122 130 106 358

2.858 2.862 2.881 137 164 135 436 71 93 67 231

2.343 2.14 2.116 98 75 79 252 56 39 45 140

2.126 1.973667 1.981 166 155 145 466 45 60 49 154

2.126 1.973667 1.981 105 112 97 314 28 47 32 107

1.272 1.255 1.272 71 49 61 181 18 13 17 48

2.516 2.285 2.304 180 180 164 524 63 80 73 216

2.516 2.284667 2.304 109 128 108 345 36 63 45 144

1.555 1.464333 1.531 81 60 71 212 29 17 29 75

2.861 2.630333 2.739 203 209 186 598 100 112 94 306

2.861 2.619333 2.717 129 154 127 410 58 78 61 197

1.998 1.819 1.927 92 71 79 242 45 34 39 118

3.178 3.025333 3.139 223 225 203 651 133 129 116 378

3.178 2.936667 3.041 144 166 140 450 80 93 76 249

2.358 2.183333 2.187 102 80 87 269 60 40 47 147

0.888 0.820333 0.86 29 46 31 106 4 2 6 12

0.888 0.820333 0.86 20 40 22 82 4 2 6 12

0.505 0.505667 0.522 9 6 9 24 0 0 0 0

1.123 1.090667 1.099 62 77 56 195 9 10 12 31

1.123 1.089 1.099 37 62 34 133 9 9 12 30

0.763 0.701333 0.709 25 15 22 62 0 1 0 1

1.575 1.558667 1.564 107 124 102 333 27 34 33 94

1.575 1.556 1.554 65 89 64 218 18 28 24 70

1.086 1.043333 1.056 46 36 43 125 9 6 9 24

1.97 2.005667 1.97 149 153 135 437 52 66 54 172

1.922 1.982667 1.922 92 112 90 294 29 51 31 111

1.361 1.344667 1.361 65 47 55 167 23 15 23 61

1.779 1.678 1.661 121 120 114 355 27 36 28 91

1.779 1.678 1.661 72 88 70 230 17 30 20 67

1.095 1.052333 1.07 52 34 47 133 10 6 8 24

1.967 1.915333 1.908 159 147 132 438 45 57 41 143

1.967 1.897 1.908 96 107 85 288 26 45 26 97

1.343 1.260333 1.274 70 45 55 170 19 12 15 46

2.332 2.243667 2.315 183 179 160 522 67 89 68 224

2.332 2.228 2.273 110 128 105 343 37 65 40 142

1.702 1.561 1.557 85 60 67 212 31 24 29 84

2.628 2.599 2.628 203 201 182 586 97 112 91 300

2.628 2.560667 2.571 125 146 120 391 56 78 56 190

2.009 1.863333 1.83 93 69 76 238 44 34 37 115