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                              Climate and Health Outlook
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Climate and Health Outlook








  
  
    

  
      



Welcome to the twentieth edition of the Climate and Health Outlook from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Climate Change and Health Equity (OCCHE). The Climate and Health Outlook is an effort to inform health professionals and the public on how our health may be affected in the coming months by climate events and provide resources to take proactive action. This edition provides  forecasts for heat, flooding, drought, and wildfire in April 2024 along with how to protect yourself and others’ health from these climate hazards. This edition also provides information and stories on well water considerations in times of drought and flooding plus a look at how climate change is influencing pollen. This webpage includes additional resources and information excluded from the PDF summary, including regional prospective forecasts.

Download the Climate and Health Outlook for April 2024

OCCHE and the HHS Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) launched the Climate and Health Outlook Portal to accompany this Climate and Health Outlook publication series. This new tool features interactive maps with county-level heat, wildfire, and drought forecasts for the current month along with county-level data on individual risk factors that may make people more vulnerable to negative health outcomes from these climate hazards. Policymakers, health care providers, and the public can use the tool to better understand and plan for the health impacts of climate-related hazards in their communities. OCCHE plans to update the tool with new features including additional climate-related hazard and risk factor data and welcomes user feedback on how it can be improved—please email us at OCCHE@hhs.gov to let us know what you think.

Visit the Climate and Health Outlook Portal for County-Level Data

NCA Region Map

*Image source: https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/regions_nca4*

U.S. Seasonal Forecast for Health: April 2024

*Regional forecasts for flood, drought, heat, and wildfire*

**Alaska**: Spring ice breakup and snowmelt **flood*** potential this spring is forecasted to be normal for the majority of the state, with the exception of portions of the Copper River Basin due to above normal snowpack. Alaska is favored to remain drought-free.

**Northwest**: Above normal snowpack in southern Idaho will lead to the potential for minor **flooding**on tributaries in areas south of the Snake River Plain this spring. **Drought** is favored to persist across small portions of Washington, central Oregon, and northern Idaho.

**Southwest**: Counties in California (2) are projected to have 1 or more **heat** exceedance days** in April. Above normal significant **wildland fire***** potential is forecast for eastern New Mexico and parts of southeast Colorado. **Drought** is favored to persist across most of New Mexico, eastern Arizona, and parts of Colorado and eastern Utah. Drought improvement and removal is likely for most drought areas of Arizona and southern Nevada.

**Hawai’i and Pacific Islands**: **Drought**persistence is forecasted across portions of Hawai’i.

**Caribbean**: **Drought** persistence is forecasted across portions of Puerto Rico.

**Northern Great Plains**: Above normal significant **wildland fire** potential is forecast for much of South Dakota. **Drought** persistence is favored in portions of Montana, northern Wyoming, southern Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Drought removal is favored in southeastern Nebraska.

**Southern Great Plains**: Counties in Texas (9) are projected to have 1 or more **heat** exceedance days in April. Isolated moderate **flooding** is expected over tributaries to the Lower Missouri River in Kansas, as well as tributaries to the Lower Arkansas River in southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma along portions of the Neosho and Poteau rivers. Minor flooding is projected over much of eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and eastern Texas this spring. Above normal significant **wildland fire**potential is forecast for parts of western Oklahoma and Kansas and North Texas. Below normal significant wildland fire potential is forecast for southeast Texas. **Drought** persistence is forecasted in western Texas. Drought improvement and removal is favored in all drought areas of Kansas and Oklahoma, as well as central Texas.

**Midwest**: Moderate **flooding** is possible along several tributaries to the Missouri River in central Missouri this spring. Isolated minor flooding is expected on additional tributaries throughout this portion of the basin. Minor to isolated moderate flooding is possible along portions of the Lower Illinois River and tributaries in Illinois this spring. Minor flooding is possible across much of the combined Ohio, Cumberland, and Tennessee Valleys. Flooding in this region is mainly driven by springtime thunderstorm activity, and spring flooding is typical in this area. Above-normal significant **wildland fire** potential is forecast for Minnesota, much of Wisconsin, northwest Michigan, and northern Iowa. **Drought**persistence is forecasted in northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and northwestern Michigan. Drought improvement and removal is favored across all drought areas of Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa, as well as southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin.

**Southeast**: Minor **flooding** is possible throughout most of the Southeast, with isolated areas of moderate potential. Flooding in this region is driven by springtime thunderstorm activity, and spring flooding is typical in this area. Below-normal significant **wildland fire** potential is forecast for Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, much of Florida and South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina.**Drought** persistence is forecasted in a small portion of eastern North Carolina. Drought improvement and removal is favored across drought areas of Tennessee and Mississippi.

**Northeast**: Minor **flooding** is possible across portions of Maryland, New Jersey, southern New York, and New England this spring. Areas including the Adirondack Mountains in northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and the mountains of western Maine will be vulnerable to flooding from steady snowmelt through the spring, particularly if heavy rainfall occurs in the next few weeks. The potential for flooding due to ice jams is above normal across the northern portion of Maine. Most of the Northeast is forecasted to remain drought-free, except for a small portion western New York and Nantucket Island where **drought** is favored to persist.

** It is important to remember that heavy and intense rainfall at any time can cause flooding conditions in excess of the Spring Outlook.  Communities are encouraged to monitor their flood risk at water.noaa.gov.*

*** A “heat exceedance day” is when the daily maximum temperature is above the 95th percentile value of the historical temperature distribution in that county.*

**** Smoke from wildfires can impact health hundreds of miles from site of the fire.*

*Heat forecasts are drawn from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center’s**Probabilistic Temperature O**utl**ook*,*flood forecasts from NOAA’s**Spring Flood Outlook**, drou**ght forecasts from NOAA’s**National Integrated Drought Information System**, and wildfire forecasts from the**National Interagency Coordination Center**.*

You can learn more about climate hazards, the ways they impact health, and resources to protect yourself and your community here:

Drought
	Extreme Heat
	Hurricane
	Wildfire
	Lyme and Other Tickborne Diseases
	West Nile Virus and Other Mosquito-Borne Diseases
	Pollen
	Spring Flooding
	Winter Weather
	Behavioral Health StressorsPrevious editions of the Climate and Health Outlook are also available.

Thank you to the partners who provide invaluable information, expertise, and data for the Climate and Health Outlook series, including the Administration for Children and Families; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health; Department of Agriculture including but not limited to the Forest Service; Environmental Protection Agency; the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Information, National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, National Integrated Drought Information System, National Integrated Heat Health Information System, and National Water Center; National Interagency Fire Center; Bureau of Land Management; Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration; United States Geological Survey; the California Air Resources Board; the Oregon Health Authority; the San Mateo County Health Department; the USA National Phenology Network; Atlanta Allergy & Asthma; American Academy o Allergy, Asthma & Immunology; the Region 2 Pediatric Environmental Health Specialty Unit; the California Department of Public Health; the Maricopa County Department of Public Health; and the National Park Service.

                    
  


Content created by Assistant Secretary for Health (ASH) Content last reviewed April 3, 2024 Back to top
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