10

- i CHAPTER 10: NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 10

- 1

10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENC IES FOR BASE AND STA NDARDS CASES

.............. 10

- 2

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS

................................ ................................ ............... 10

- 5

10.3.1 Primary Energy Savings

................................ ................................ ................................ 10

- 5

10.3.2 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Savings

................................ ................................ .................... 10

- 6

10.3.3 Inputs to National Energy Savings

................................ ................................ ................ 10

- 7

10.3.3.1 Shipments

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 7

10.3.3.2 Product Stock

................................ ................................ ............................... 10

- 8

10.3 .3.3 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

................................ ........................ 10

- 8

10.3.3.4 National Annual Energy Consumption

................................ ........................ 10

- 8

10.3.3.5 Site

- to

- Power Plant Conversion Factors

................................ ...................... 10

- 8

10.3.3.1 Primary Energy to Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Multipliers

................................ ........... 10

- 9

10.3.3.2 Rebound Rate Factor

................................ ................................ .................... 10

- 9

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

................................ ................................ ............................. 10

- 10

10.4.1 Definition

................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 10

- 10

10.4.2 Inputs to Net Present Value

................................ ................................ ......................... 10

- 11

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit

................................ ................................ ...... 10

- 12

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit

................................ ................... 10

- 13

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Increases in Installed Cost

................................ ................... 10

- 13

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost

................................ ................... 10

- 13

10.4.2.5 Discount Factors

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 14

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs

................................ ................................ ............... 10

- 14

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings

................................ ................................ ........... 10

- 14

10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATI ONS

................................ ................................ .............. 10

- 15

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 10

- 15

10.5.2 Results of National Energy Savings Calculations

................................ ....................... 10

- 16

10.5.3 Annual Costs and Savings

................................ ................................ ........................... 10

- 16

10.5.4 Results of Net Present Value Calculations

................................ ................................ .. 10

- 17

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Portable Dehumidifiers ≤20.00 Pints/Day: Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 3

Table 10.2.2 Portable Dehumidifiers 20.01

– 30.00 Pints/Day: Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 3

Table 10.2.3 Portable Dehumidifiers 30.01

– 35.00 Pints/Day: Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 4

Table 10.2.4 Portable Dehumidifiers 35.01

– 45.00 Pints/Day: Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 410

- ii Table 10.2.5 Portable Dehumidifiers >45.00 Pints/Day: Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................ ................................ ........ 10

- 4

Table 10.2.6 Whole

- Home Dehumidifiers ≤8.0 ft 3 Case Volume: Base

- and Standards

Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................ ............................... 10

- 5

Table 10.2.7 Whole

- Home Dehumidifiers > 8.0 ft 3 Case Volume: Base

- and Standards

Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

................................ ............................... 10

- 5

Table 10.5.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings (Unit: Quads)

................................ ....... 10

- 16

Table 10.5.3 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle National Energy Savings (Unit: Quads)

................................ 10

- 16

Table 10.5.4 Cumulative NPV Results Based on 3

- Percent Discount Rate (Billion, 2012$)

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 10

- 18

Table 10.5.5 Cumulative NPV Results Based on 7

- Percent Discount Rate (Billion, 2012$)

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 10

- 18

FIGURE

Figure 10

- 1 Site

- to

- Power Plant Energy Conversion Factor s for Dehumidifier s

.................. 10

- 9 Figure 10

- 2 Non

- Discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases and Annual Operating Cost Savings for Dehumidifiers, CSL 3

................................ .......................... 10

- 1710-1 CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANAL YSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter of the preliminary technical support document (TSD) describes the method the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used to estimat e the effe cts on national energy consumption of candidate standard levels ( C SLs) for dehumidifiers

. DOE evaluated the

f

ollowing effe cts: (1) national energy savings (NES) attributable to each po tential standard ; (2)

the monetary value of energy savings to consumers of dehumidifiers ; (3) increased total installed

cost of the products because of standards ; and (4) the net present value (NPV) of energy savings ( i.e. , the difference between the operational savings and increased total installed costs).

DOE determined both the NES and NPV for all the C SLs considered for the product

classes of both portable a nd whole

- home dehumidifiers

. It performed all calculations using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet ( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appl iance_standards/ ). The spreadsheet s
, which implement the National Impact Analysis (NIA) m odel, combine the calculations for determining

the NES and NPV with input from the s hipments model (chapter 9 of the preliminary TSD )

. Details and instructions for using the NIA m odel are provided in a ppendix 10A of this preliminary TSD

.

Chapter 9 of this preliminary TSD provides a detailed des cription of the shipments model that DOE used to forecast future purchases of dehumidifiers . Chapter 9 includes detailed descriptions of consumers’ sensitivities to total installed cost and operating cost, and how DOE captured those sensitivities within the model.

To estimate the national impacts of new standards for all the product classes c onsidered in this rulemaking, DOE allocated the product cost and annual energy consumption of each representative product class to all product classes within its category.

DOE analyzed the benefits and burdens of four C SLs for five product classes of po rtable

dehumidifiers and two product classes of whole

- home dehumidifiers . The C SLs were developed using combinations of efficiency levels for all seven product classes that DOE analyzed

. Table

10.1

. 1 presents the C SLs and the corresponding efficiency levels for dehumidifiers

. C SL 4 represents the maximum technologically fe asible (“max

- tech”) improvement in energy efficiency

for dehumidifi ers

. C SL s 2 and 3 represent intermediate efficiency levels between C SLs 1 and 4.

C SL 1 represents the first efficiency level considered that exceeds baseline efficiency

.10-2 Table 10.1

. 1 Candidate Standard Levels for Dehumidifiers

— IEF * ( U nit s : L / kWh † )

CSL ≤ 20 .00 pints/day 20.01

- 30 .00 pints/day 30.01

- 35 .00 pints/day 35.01

- 45.00 pints/day > 45.00 pints/day ≤ 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume ( Whole

Home ) > 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume ( Whole

H ome)

Baseline 0.77 0.80 0.94 1.00 2.07 1.10 1.68

C SL 1 1.10 1.10 1.20 1.30 2.40 1.40 1.90

C SL 2 1.20 1.20 1.40 1.40 2.80 1.40 2.80

C SL 3 1.30 1.30 1.60 1.60 2.80 1.40 2.80

C SL 4 1.42 1.52 1.75 1.75 3.52 1.59 3.41
* IEF = Integrated energy factor , which includes energy consumed in standby, off, dehumidification , and fan

- only

modes.

† L/kWh = Liters (of moistur e removed) per kilowatt

- hour (of energy consumed)

.

10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENC IES FOR BASE AND STA NDARDS CASES

This section describes the method DOE used to forecast the energy efficiencies of

dehumidifiers for the base case and for each of the candidate standards cases

. It provides

e fficiency distributions for all product classes of both portable and whole

- home de humidifiers

.

A key factor in estimating NES and NPV is the trend in energy efficiency forecasted for the base case (without new standards) and each of the standards cases. In calculating the NES,

per

- unit annual energy consumption is a direct function of product efficiency. For the NPV, two inputs, the per

- unit total installed cost and the per

- unit annual operating cost, depend on efficiency. The first input, the per

- unit total installed cost, is a direct function of efficiency.

B ecause it is a function o f annual energy use
, the per

- unit annual operating cost depends indirectly on product efficiency.

Using the shipment

- weight ed efficiency of dehumidifiers for 20 1 3 as a starting point,

DOE projected efficiencies for the base case based on assumptions rega r ding future improveme nts in efficiency and assumed an annual growth r ate of 0.25 percent between 201 9

and 2048.

DOE assumed a “roll

- up” scenario to establish the shipment

- weighted efficiency for the year that standards are assumed to become effective (2019). DOE assumed that product

efficiencies in the base case that did not meet the standard under consideration wou ld “roll up” to

meet the new standard level. For its projected efficiencies of CSLs

, in addition to a “roll

- up” scenario, DOE developed a shift scenario. In the shift scenario DOE applies an annual growth rate in average energy efficiency to the shipment

- w eighted integrated energy factors ( SWIEF ) , as it is done in the base case. To develop standards case forecasted SWIEF s, DOE developed growth trends for each candidate standard level that maintained the same per

- unit average total

installed c ost difference for the year 2019 between the base case and each standards case over the entire forecast period (2019

– 2048 ). DOE’s approach for develo ping standards case SWIEF s in10-3 this manner assumes that the rate of adoption of more efficient products under the standards case can occur only at a rate which ensures that the average total installed cost difference between the standards case and base case over the entire forecast period is held constant. Because the total installed cost versus efficiency relationship for eac h product class demonstrates an increasing

cost rate for mo re efficient products, the SWIEF growth rate for each standards case is low er than the SWIEF growth rate for the base case.

Table 10.2.1 through Table 10.2.7 show the base

- case and C SL product efficiency distributions in 2019, based on the integrated energy factor (IEF) for each of the seven product

class es that DOE is considering

. The C SLs are co mposed of efficiency levels analyzed in the

life

- cycle cost and payback period analysis (chapter 8 of the preliminary TSD )

. Also included in

the table s are the shipment

- weighted integrated energy factor s (SW I EF s ) and shipment

- weighted annual energy use ( SW AEU) associated with the base case and each C SL.

Table 10.2.1 Portable Dehumidifier s ≤ 20 .00 Pints/Day : Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL C SL IEF Market Shares (%)

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

(L/kWh ) 1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 0.77 62 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.10 6 68 0 0 0

2 2 1.20 0 0 68 0 0

3 3 1.30 29 29 29 97 0

4 4 1.42 3 3 3 3 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh ) 0.96 1.17 1.24 1.30 1.42

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 517 405 381 360 331

Table 10.2.2 Portable Dehumidifier s 20.0 1

– 30 .00 Pints/Day : Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF ( L /kWh ) Market Share (%)

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 0.80 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.10 47 47 0 0 0

2 2 1.20 21 21 68 0 0

3 3 1.30 27 27 27 94 0

4 4 1.52 6 6 6 6 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh ) 1.20 1.20 1.24 1.31 1.52
SWAEU ( kWh/yr ) 550 550 527 499 43110-4 Table 10.2.3 Portable Dehumidifier s 30.01

– 35 .00 Pints/Day : Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF ( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 0.94 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.20 49 49 0 0 0

2 2 1.40 48 48 97 0 0

3 3 1.60 0 0 0 97 0

4 4 1.75 3 3 3 3 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.31 1.31 1.41 1.60 1.75

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 653 653 603 530 486

Table 10.2.4 Portable Dehumidifier s 35.01

– 45.00 Pints/Day : Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF ( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base

Case Candidate l Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 1.00 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.30 34 34 0 0 0

2 2 1.40 61 61 95 0 0

3 3 1.60 1 1 1 96 0

4 4 1.75 4 4 4 4 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.38 1.38 1.42 1.61 1.75

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 758 758 739 651 597

Table 10.2.5 Portable Dehumidifier s > 45 .00 Pints/Day : Base

- and Standards

- Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF ( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 2.07 39 0 0 0 0

1 1 2.40 29 68 0 0 0

2 2, 3 2.80 16 16 84 84 0

3 4 3.52 16 16 16 16 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 2.52 2.64 2.92 2.92 3.52

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 933 958 971 971 1,04310-5 Table 10.2.6 Whole

- Home Dehumidifier s ≤ 8.0 ft 3 Case Volume : Base

- and Standards

Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF ( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 1.10 25 0 0 0 0

1 1, 2, 3 1.40 19 44 44 44 0

2 4 1.59 56 56 56 56 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.43 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.59

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 1,131 1,137 1,137 1,137 1,185

Table 10.2.7 Whole

- Home Dehumidifier s > 8.0 ft 3 Case Volume : Base

- and Standards

Case Efficiency Distributions in 2019

EL CSL IEF ( L /kWh) Market Share (%)

Base Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

Baseline

- 1.68 22 0 0 0 0

1 1 1.90 46 68 0 0 0

2 2, 3 2.80 16 16 84 84 0

3 4 3.41 16 16 16 16 100

SWIEF ( L /kWh) 2.24 2.29 2.90 2.90 3.41

SWAEU (kWh/yr) 1,472 1,475 1,511 1,511 1,621

Based on the assumption of a 0.25 percent growth rate in the efficiencies for the base case, DOE maintained the SWIEFs shown in Table 10.2.1 through Table 10.2.7 throughout the projection period, from 201 9 to 204 8

.

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS

DOE calculated the national energy savings (NES) associated with the difference between the base case and each of the potential standards cases for dehumidifiers . DOE calculated cumulative energy savings from 201 9 to 2048

.

10.3.1 Primary Energy Savings

DOE calculate d annual NES as the difference between two projections: a base case (without new standards) and a standards case (with new standards). Positive values of NES

represent energy savings ( i.e. , national annual energy consumption under a standard is less than

under the bas e case).10-6 NN S y = � A C bbbb

, y − A C ss

, y � × RR

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of the national annual energy savings throughout the forecast period, which starts in the compliance year (201 9 ) and ends after 30 years (204 8 )

. Th e calculat ion is represented by the following equation

. 

# ∑

= y cumulative 

### NES NES

DOE calculated the national annual energy consumption by multiplying the number or

stock of each product class (by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (also by vintage). The calculation of the national annual energy consumption is performed using the following equation.



# ∑ × = V V 

### UEC STOCK AEC

DOE defined the quantities for the above expressions as follows.

AEC = National a nnual energy con sumption each year in quadrillion British thermal units ( quads ) summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V

. NES y = National a nnual energy savings (quads)

. STOCK V = Stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V surviving in the year for which

DOE calculated annual energy consumption

. UEC V = Annual energy consumption per product in either kilowatt

- hours (kWh) or million Btus (MMBtu) (electricity and gas consumption are converted from site energy to source energy (quads) by applying a time

- dependen t conversion factor)

. V = Year in which the product was purchased as a new unit

. y = Year in the forecast.

RR = R ebound rate factor = 1

- rebound rate.

The stock of a product depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the product

. As

described in c hapter 9 of the preliminary TSD , DOE projec ted dehumidifier shipments under the

base and standards cases. To avoid including savings attributable to shipments displaced because

of standards (consumers deciding not to buy higher

- priced pro ducts) , DOE used the projected

standards

- case shipments and, in turn, the standards

- case stock, to calculate the AEC for the base

case.

10.3.2 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Savings

DOE has historically presented the NES computed based on the primary energy savings

at the power plant, as described in the previous section. Per DOE’s 2011 Statement of Policy for10-7 Adopting Full Fuel Cycle Analyses, DOE now uses full

- fuel

- cycle (hereafter, FFC) measures of energy use and emissions in its energy conservation standards analys es. 1 In addition to the primary energy used at the power plant to supply electricity to the site of use and account for transmission and distribution losses, the FFC analysis also accounts for energy consumed up

stream of the power plant in extracting, pro cessing, and transporting or distributing the primary fuels to the power plant, as described in appendix 10B.

As shown in the equation beow , the FFC national energy savings NN S FFF are obtained by multiplying the primary energy savings by the FFC multiplier computed for the same year, μ y .

NN S FFF

, y = � A C bbbb

, y − A C ss

, y � × RR × μ y

Where:

μ y =the FFC multiplier in year y , and

All other variables were defined in section 10.3.1

The cumulative FFC energy savings is calculated by summing the annual FFC energy saving

from 2019

- 20 9 7.

NN S FFF

, ccc = � NN S FFF

, y

y

10.3.3 Inputs to National Energy Savings

The inputs to the calculation of NES are:

• s hipments

,

• product stock ( STOCK V

)

,

• annual energy consumption per unit ( UE C)

,

• national annual energy consumption ( AEC )

,

• site

- to

- source conversion factor ( src_conv )

,

• primary ene rgy to full fuel cycle multipliers (μ), and

• rebound rate factor (RF).

10.3.3.1 Shipments

DOE projected shipments for the base case and all standards cases. Several factors, including total installed cost (purchase price plus installation costs ), operating cost, and product lifetime, all affect projected shipments. Chapter 9 of the preliminary TSD , Shipments Analysis

, detail s the method DOE used to calculate and generate the shipments projections for

dehumidifiers

.10-8 10.3.3.2 Product Stock

The product stoc k in a given year is the number of products shipped from earlier years

that survive in th at year. The NIA m odel track s the number of units shipped each year

. DOE

assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of survival as a function of years since purchase is the survival function. Chapter 9 of the preliminary TSD provides additional details on the survival functions that DOE used for portable

and whole

- home dehumidifiers

.

10.3.3.3 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

DOE used the shipment

- weighted annual energy use ( SWAEU) defined in section 10.2

for the base case and standards cases, along with the data on AEC presented in chapters 7 and 8 of the preliminary TSD

, to estimate the shipment

- weighted average annual per

- un it energy consumption under base and standards cases.

10.3.3.4 National Annual Energy Consumption

The national annual energy co n sumption is the product of the annual energy consumption per unit and the number of units of each vintage (V) . Th e calculation of AEC a ccounts for differences in unit energy consumption from year to year. DOE used t he equation below (as presented in section 10.3.1) to calculate annual energy consumption.



# ∑ × = V V 

### UEC STOCK AEC

To determine national annual energy consumption, DOE calculated the annual energy consumption at the site and then applied a conversion factor to calculate primary energy consumption

, as described below.

10.3.3.5 Site

- to

- Power Plant Conversion Factors

I n determining AEC , DOE initially calculated the annual energy consumption at the site (for electricity, the energy in kWh consumed at the household or establishment). It then used site energy consumption to calculate primary (source) energy consumption by applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of

electrici ty

. Th e site

- to

- source conversion factor is a multiplicative factor used to convert site energy consumption into primary

, or sourc e
, energy consumption expressed in quads (quadrillion Btus). DOE used annual site

- to

- power plant conversion factors based on the version of the10-9 National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) a that corresponds to EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook

20 13 ( AEO 2013 ). 2 The factors are marginal values, which represent the response of the power supply system to an incremental decrease in consumption. For electricity, the conversion factors change over time in response to projected changes in generation sources ( i.e., the types of power plants projected to provide electricity to the Nation ). Figure 10

- 1 sh ows the site

- to

- power plant

conversion factors from 2019 to 2048 . The value repor ted in AEO 2013 f or 20 40 (the last year

covered ) was extrapolated through the end of the projection period

.

Figure 10

- 1 Site

- to

- Power Plant Energy Conversion Factors for Dehumidifiers

10.3.3.1 Primary Energy to Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Multipliers

For this preliminary analysis, DOE calculated FFC energy savings using a methodology described in appendix 10B. As discussed previously, the FFC energy savings are obtained by multiplying the primary energy savings at the power plant by the FFC multiplier. The estimated FFC multiplier (μ) is essentially constant, ranging between 1.040 and 1.041 from 2019 to 2077.

10.3.3.2 Rebound Rate Factor

A rebound effect accounts for increased usage of an appliance by consumers after the implementa tion of a standard, reducing the energy savings attributed to a standard. DOE

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009 , DOE/EIA

- 0581 (October 2009) . EIA approves use of the name NEMS only to describe an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications

, and the model is run under policy scenarios that are variations on EIA assumptions, DOE refers to the model as NEMS

- BT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work was performed). NEMS

- BT previously was called NEMS

- BRS. 7.80 7.90 8.00 8.10 8.20 8.30 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70MMBtu/MWh

Year10-10 generally accounts for the direct rebound effect in its estimates of the NES. As discussed in chapter 2 of this TSD, for this preliminary analysis, DOE used a rebound rate of zer o. DOE

welcomes data on rebound effects in dehumidifiers.

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

DOE calculated the net present value (NPV) of the increased product price and reduced operating cost associated with the difference between the base case and each potential stand ards

case for the dehumidifier product classes.

10.4.1 Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time

- series of costs and savings. The NPV is described by the equation:



### PVC PVS NPV

_ 

### =

W here:

PVS = p resent value of operating cost savings, and

PVC = p resent value of increased total installed costs (including purchase price and

installation costs ).

DOE determined the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions

. 

# ∑

y y 

### DF OCS PVS × =



# ∑

y y 

### DF TIC PVC × =

Where:

OCS = t otal annual savings in operating costs each year summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V ;
DF = d iscount factor in each year ; TIC = t otal annual increases in installed cost each year summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V ; and

y = y ear in the forecast.

DOE calculated the total annual consumer savings in operating cost by multiplying the

number or stock of a given product class (by vintage) by its per

- unit operating cost savings (also by vintage). DOE calculated the total annual increases in consumer product price by multiplying

the number or shipments of the given product class (by v intage) by its per

- unit increase in10-11 consumer prod uc t cost (also by vintage). The calculation of total annual operating cost savings and total annual produc t price increases are represented by the following equations.



# ∑

V V y 

### UOCS STOCK OCS × =



# ∑

y y y 

### UTIC SHIP TIC × =

Where:

STOCK V = stock of product s of vintage V that survive in the year for which DOE calculated annual energy consumption

, UOCS V = annual operating cost savings per unit of vintage V

, V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit ; SHIP y = shipments of products in year y ; a nd

UTIC y = annual per

- unit increase in installed product price in year y

.

DOE determined the total inc reased product price for each year from 2019 to 2048

. DOE determined the present value of operating cost savings for each year from 2019 to the year when all units purchased in 2048 will have been retired. DOE calculated costs and savings as the

difference between a standards case and a base case without new standards.

DOE developed a discount factor from the national discount rate and the number of years between the “present” (year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum ove r time of the discounted net savings.

10.4.2 Inputs to Net Present Value

The inputs to the calculation of NPV are:

• t otal installed cost per unit

,

• a nnual operating cost savings per unit

,

• t otal annual increases in product price

,

• t otal annual savings in operating cost

,

• d iscount factor

,

• p resent value of costs

, and

• p resent value of savings.

The increase in t he total annual installed cost is equal to the annual change in the per

- unit

total installed cost (difference between base and standards case) multiplied by the shipments

forecasted in the standards case.

The total annual operating cost savings are equa l to the change in annual operating cost (difference between base and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments forecasted in10-12 the standards case. As noted, DOE did not calculate operating cost savings using base

- case shipments. The annual operating cost includes energy costs.

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit

The average annual product cost depends directly on efficiency. DOE therefore used the efficiency distribution s presented in Table 10.2.1 through Table 10.2.7 , along with the product price at various efficiency levels (presented in chapter 8 of the preliminary TSD ), to estimate the shipment

- weighted average annual product cost under the base and standards cases

. Table 10.4

. 1

show s the shipment

- weighted average consumer product price based on the SW IEF s that correspond to the base case and each standards case for each product class in 201 9.

Table 10.4

. 1 Shipment

- Weighted Average Per

- Unit Total Installed Costs for Base and

Standards Cases

Product Class SWIEF &

Total Installed Cost Base

Case Candidate Standard Level

1 2 3 4

≤20 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 0.96 1.17 1.24 1.30 1.42

Total installed cost (2012$) $221 $221 $223 $227 $232

20.01

– 30 .00 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.20 1.20 1.24 1.31 1.52

Total installed cost (2012$) $234 $234 $236 $238 $249

30.01

– 35 .00 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.31 1.31 1.41 1.60 1.75

Total installed cost (2012$) $263 $263 $266 $275 $283

35.01

– 45.00 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.38 1.38 1.42 1.61 1.75

Total installed cost (2012$) $284 $284 $285 $294 $300

> 45.00 pints/day SWIEF ( L /kWh) 2.52 2.64 2.92 2.92 3.52

Total installed cost (2012$) $933 $958 $971 $971 $1,043

≤ 8.0 ft 3 case volume (whole

- home) SWIEF ( L /kWh) 1.43 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.59

Total installed cost (2012$) $1,693 $1,699 $1,699 $1,699 $1,747

> 8.0 ft 3 case volume (whole

- home) SWIEF ( L /kWh) 2.24 2.29 2.90 2.90 3.41

Total installed cost (2012$) $2,034 $2,037 $2,073 $2,073 $2,183

As noted in section 10.2, DOE assumed that projected efficiencies in the base case and

C SLs remain frozen at the efficiency levels of 201 9

. B ecause the per

- unit total installed costs are a function of efficiency, DOE held the values constant over the projection period (201 9

– 204 8 ).

To evaluate the effect of uncertainty regarding price trend s , DOE examin ed the effe ct of

various product price forecasts on the consumer NPV for the considered C SLs for residential

dehumidifiers. In addition to the defau lt price trend, DOE considered separate product price sensitivity cases for portable dehumidifiers and whole

- home dehumidifiers. For portable dehumidifiers, DOE considered a case for a low price decline based on estimating an experience10-13 curve using Produce r Price Index (PPI) data for “small electric household appliances” from 1983

to 2012 . A case for high price decline was based on the price forecast of the “furniture and appliances” series from AEO 2013 . For whole

- home dehumidifiers, a case for a low price decline was based on an exponential fit to the PPI from 1978 to 2012 for “air

- conditioning, refrigeration, and forced air heating e quipment

. ” T he high price decline w as based on the price forecast of the “furniture and appliances” series from AEO 2013 . Th e approach used to forecast the price trends

and the results of the sensitivity cases are described in appendix 10C of this preliminary TSD

.

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit

The per

- unit annual operating cost includes the costs for energy, repair, and maintenance.

As d escribed in c hapter 8 of the preliminary TSD , DOE assumed that potential standards would

not increase maintenance and repair costs for any of the considered product classes . Therefore, DOE determined the per

- unit annua l operating cost savings based only on the energy cost savings attributable to a standard level. DOE determined the per

- unit annual operating cost savings by multiplying the per

- unit savings in annual energy consumption for each product class by the approp riate energy price.

As described in chapter 8, DOE forecasted energy prices based on EIA’s AEO 2013

. The energy price trends are d escribed in c hapter 8 of this preliminary TSD

.

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Increases in Installed Cost

The total annual increase in installed cost for any given standards case is the product of

the total per

- unit increase in installed cost due to the standard and the number of units of each vintage. This approach accounts for differences in total installed cost from year to year. Belo w is

t he equation for calculat ing the increase in total annual installed cost for a given standards case (as introduc ed in section 10.4.1)

. 

# ∑

V V 

### UTIC STOCK TIC × =

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost

The total annual savings in operating cost for an y given standards case is the product of the annual operating cost savings per unit attributable to the standard and the number of units of each vintage. This approach accounts for differences in annual operating cost savings from year

to year. Below is t h e equation for calculating the total annual operating cost savings for a given

standards case (as introduced in section 10.4.1)

. 

# ∑

V V 

### UOCS STOCK OCS × =10-14 10.4.2.5 Discount Factors

DOE multiplies monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

) (

_ ) 1 ( 1

yp y r DF

+ =

W here:

R = discount rate,

Y = year of the monetary value, and

y P = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE estimated national impacts using both a 3

- percent and a 7

- percent real discount rate

, in accordance with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)’s guidance to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis ( OMB Circular A

- 4 , Sep tember 17, 2003), and section

E , “Identif ying and Measuring Benefits and Costs,” therein. DOE defines the present year as

2013

.

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs

The present value of increased installed costs is the increase in annual installed cost in each year ( i.e. , the difference between a standards case and base case), discounted to the present

and summed over the period for which DOE is consider ing the installation of products ( that is

, from 2019 t o 2048 ).

The increase in total installed cost refers to both product cost and installation cost associated with the highe r energy efficiency of products purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated annual increases in installed costs as the difference in

total installed cost for new products pu rchased each year multiplied by the shipments in the

standards case.

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings

The present value of operating cost savings is the annua l operating cost savings ( the

difference between the base case and a standards case) discounted to the pr esent and summed over the period from the complia n ce year
, 201 9 , to the year when the last unit installed in 2048 is

retired from service. Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in the st andards case compared to the base case. Total annual operating cost savings are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage

that surviv e in a particular year.10-15 10.5 RESULTS OF CALCULATI ONS

The national impact analysis ( NIA ) m odel estimates the NES and NPV attributable to a given candidate standard level. The inputs to the NIA m odel wer e discussed in sections 10.3.2 (NES i nputs) and 10.4.2 (NPV i nputs). DOE generated the NES and NPV results using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet ( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/ ). Details and instructions for using the spreadsheet are provided in a ppendix 10A of this preliminary TSD

.

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

Table 10.5

. 1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA m odel. T he data source for each input is described briefly

.

Table 10.5

. 1 Inputs to Calculation of National Ene rgy Savings and Net Present Value

Input Data Source

Shipments Annual shipments from s hipments m odel

. ( S ee c hapter 9

. )

Effective d ate of s tandard 201 9

Base

- c ase forecasted efficiencies SW IEF determined in 201 9 for each of the consider ed product s classes

. SW I EF is held constant during the forecast period 201 9

– 204 8 . (See s ection 10.2

. )

Stan dards

- case efficiencies Roll

- up scenario assumed for determining SW IEF in 201 9 for

each standards case and for ea ch of the considered products

classes. SW IEF is held constant during the forecast period 201 9

– 204 8 . (See s ection 10.2.)

Annual e nergy c onsumption per u nit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of SW AEU . (See

s ection 10.3.2.3 .)

Total i nstalled c ost per u nit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of the efficiency

distribution . (See s ection 10.4.2.1.)

Energy c ost per u nit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of the annual energy consumption per unit and energy price s . (See chapter 8, for energy price s .)

Repair and m aintenance c ost s per u nit S tandards are assumed to induce n o changes to repair or maintenance cost s

. Forecast of installed cost per unit Price forecast based on historical PPI data.

Forecast of energy price s Energy p rices: EIA 's AEO201 3 projections ( See c hapter 8.)

Energy site

- to

- power plant

conversion A time

- series conversion factor that includes losses due to electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. Conversion

, which changes yearly

, is generated by DOE/EIA’s NEMS*

program

. Discount rate 3 % and 7 % real

Present year Future expenses are discounted to 201 3

.

* Section 10.3.2.5 provide s more detail on NEMS.10-16 10.5.2 Results of National Energy Savings Calculations

Table 10.5

. 2 shows the NES results for the CSLs analyzed for dehumidifiers. NES

results , which are cumulative to 2048

, are shown as primary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighte d

- average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values such as obtained in the LCC and PBP a nalysis (chapter 8 of the preliminary TSD )

.

Table 10.5

. 2 Cumulativ e N ational Energy Savings ( Unit: Quads )

C SL ≤20.00 Pints/Day 20.01

- 30.00 Pints/Day 30.01

- 35.00 Pints/Day 35.01

- 45.00 Pints/Day > 45.00 Pints/Day ≤ 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) > 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

home) All

1 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.23

2 0.22 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.34

3 0.26 0.06 0.14 0.14 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.63

4 0.32 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.89

Table 10.5

. 3 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle National Energy Savings (Unit: Quads)

CSL ≤20.00 Pints/Day 20.01

- 30.00 Pints/Day 30.01

- 35.00 Pints/Day 35.01

- 45.00 Pints/Day >45.00 Pints/Day ≤8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) >8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

home) All

1 0.20 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.23

2 0.22 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.35

3 0.26 0.06 0.14 0.14 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.64

4 0.32 0.15 0.19 0.19 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.91

10.5.3 Annual Costs and Savings

To illustrate the basic inputs to the NPV calculations, Figure 10

- 2 presents the non

discounted annual installed cost increases and annual operating cost savings nationwide for CSL

3 for dehumidifiers . The figure also shows the net savings, which represent th e difference between the savings and costs for each year. The annual product cost is the increase in the total installed cost for products purchased each year during the forecast period. The annual operating cost savings is the savings in operating costs f or products operating in each year. The NPV is the10-17 difference between the cumulative annual discounted savings and the cumulative annual discounted costs. DOE could create figures like the one presented below for each CSL

.

Figure 10

- 2 Non

- Discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases and Annual Operating Cost Savings for Dehumidifier s , CSL 3

10.5.4 Results of N et Present Value Calculations

Th is section provide s results from the calculation of net present value ( NPV ) for the potential efficiency standards for dehumidifiers

. Results , which are cumulative

, are shown as the discounted value of savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA m odel on weighted

- average values, yielding results that are discrete point values, rath er than a distribution of values as produced by the life

- cycle cost and payback period analys i s

.

The present value of increased total installed costs is the increase in total annual installed cost ( i.e. , the difference between the standards case and base c ase), discounted to the present and summed over the period in which DOE evaluate d the impact s of standards ( 2019 to 204 8 ).

Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in a standards case a s compared to the base case. Total savings in operating costs are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage ( i.e. , the year of -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60Billion 2012$ Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost

Net Savings10-18 manufacture) that surviv e in a particular year. For units purchased through 2048 , operating cost s include energy consumed until the last unit is retired from service.

Table 10.5

. 4 and Table 10.5

. 5 present NPV results for the candidate standard levels

considered for dehumidifiers

.

Table 10.5

. 4 Cumulative NPV Results B ased on 3

- Percent Discount Rate (Billion, 2012$)

C SL ≤20.00 Pints/Day 20.01

- 30.00 Pints/Day 30.01

- 35.00 Pints/Day 35.01

- 45.00 Pints/Day > 45.00 Pints/Day ≤ 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) > 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume ( Whole

Home) All

1 1.42 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.12 0.01 0.01 1.64

2 1.59 0.22 0.32 0.12 0.14 0.01 0.02 2.43

3 1.84 0.40 0.96 0.94 0.14 0.01 0.02 4.31

4 2.20 0.98 1.29 1.27 0.23 0.01 0.03 6.01

Table 10.5

. 5 Cumulative NPV Results B ased on 7

- Percent Discount Rate (Billion, 2012$)

C SL ≤20.00 Pints/Day 20.01

- 30.00 Pints/Day 30.01

- 35.00 Pints/Day 35.01

- 45.00 Pints/Day > 45.00 Pints/Day ≤ 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) > 8.0 ft 3

Case

Volume (Whole

Home) All

1 0.61 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.70

2 0.68 0.09 0.14 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.01 1.04

3 0.78 0.17 0.40 0.38 0.06 0.00 0.01 1.80

4 0.92 0.41 0.54 0.54 0.09 0.00 0.01 2.5110-19 REFERENCES

1 United States. Office of the Federal Register. Federal Register, Volume 76, Number 160, August 18, 2011, Pages 51281

- 51868. Washington D.C. UNT Digital Library.

2 U.S. Energy Information Administration

. Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with P rojections

to 2040

. 2013. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA

- 0383 (2013)

. April. (Last accessed November 21, 2013.) http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2013).pdf