CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 10-1 10.2 OVERVIEW OF EQUIPMENT CLASSES AND MARKET SHARE ........................... 10-2 10.3 SHIPMENTS MODEL EQUATIONS ............................................................................. 10-3 10.3.1 Mathematical Formulation of the Shipments Model ......................................... 10-4 10.3.2 Stock Events....................................................................................................... 10-4 10.4 DATA INPUTS ................................................................................................................ 10-6 10.4.1 Historical Shipments .......................................................................................... 10-6 10.4.2 Historical Shipped Units .................................................................................... 10-6 10.4.3 Hotel/Motel, Health Care, and Small Office Space and Market Saturation ...... 10-7 10.5 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................... 10-11

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Market Segments for the U.S. PTAC and PTHP Market in the Year 2000 ....... 10-3 Table 10.4.1 Historical Shipments (Units Shipped) of PTAC and PTHP Equipment by Cooling Capacity and Year ................................................................................ 10-7 Table 10.4.2 Baseline Square Footage of New Construction Forecasts by Census Division and Building Type for PTACs and PTHPS (Millions of Square Feet) CHANGE .................................................................................................. 10-8 Table 10.4.3 Historical Percentage of Shipped Units by Equipment class for PTAC and PTHP Equipment (2005).................................................................................... 10-9 Table 10.4.4 Estimated Replacement Sales of Standard Size PTAC and PTHP Equipment in the Year 2000 ............................................................................ 10-10 Table 10.4.5 Estimated New Sales of Standard Size PTAC and PTHP Equipment in the Year 2000 ......................................................................................................... 10-10 Table 10.4.6 Estimated Stock of PTAC and PTHP Units and Replacement Sales in the Year 2000 ......................................................................................................... 10-11 Table 10.5.1 Forecasted Shipments for PTAC and PTHP Equipment, Base Case for Selected Years .................................................................................................. 10-11

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 10.1.1 Flow Chart Showing Inputs to the Shipments Model ........................................ 10-1

10-iCHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION Shipments estimates for packaged terminal air conditioners (PTACs) and packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHPs) are a necessary input to the national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) calculations and the manufacturer impacts analysis (MIA). This chapter describes the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s methodology for projecting annual shipments and presents results.
The shipments model is a description of PTAC and PTHP equipment stock flows as a function of year and age. No coupling is assumed between equipment categories, so the equations describe each type of equipment independently. In other words, DOE has not found evidence of equipment switching between equipment classes for PTACs and PTHPs.
The shipments model results are driven primarily by historical shipments data for each of four equipment classes of PTACs and PTHPs under consideration. The flow chart presented in Figure 10.1.1 outlines the structure of the shipments model. The shipments model is in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet format that is accessible on the Internet at: http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/packaged_ac_hp.html.

NEMS Bldg
Construction Forecast ARI Estimate of Shipments (2005)

Initial Replacement Shipments Initial Shipments to New Construction

Initial Equipment Stock

Estimated Lifetime of Equipment Stock Shipments to New

Construction

Replacement Shipments

Total Shipments By

Equipment Class and Capacity % Shipments by Equipment Class and

Capacity (2005)

Equipment Stock by Equipment Class and Capacity NEMS Bldg
Construction Forecast ARI Estimate of Shipments (2005)

Initial Replacement Shipments Initial Shipments to New Construction

Initial Equipment Stock

Estimated Lifetime of Equipment Stock Shipments to New

Construction

Replacement Shipments

Total Shipments By

Equipment Class and Capacity % Shipments by Equipment Class and

Capacity (2005)

Equipment Stock by Equipment Class and Capacity Figure 10.1.1 Flow Chart Showing Inputs to the Shipments Model

DOE developed shipments forecasts by accounting for: (1) the growth in the building stock of hotel/motel, health care and office buildings that are the primary end users of PTACs and PTHPs; (2) market segments; (3) equipment retirements; and (4) equipment ages.
The shipments model assumes that, in each year, each existing PTAC or PTHP either ages by one year or breaks down, and that equipment that breaks down is replaced. In addition,

10-1new equipment can be shipped into new commercial building floor space, and old equipment can be removed through demolitions. Historical shipments are critical to the development of the shipments model, since DOE used the historical data to calibrate the model. DOE’s primary source of historical data for shipments of PTACs and PTHPs was the shipment data provided by the Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI). ARI provided DOE with shipments data for 10 years (1997-2006), which allowed DOE to allocate sales of equipment to the different equipment classes.
Initial stocks of equipment by equipment classes are calculated from industry-supplieddata on replacements and new shipments and assumed equipment lifetimes based on industrysupplied data in a report by Ducker Worldwide 1 . Because the non-standard size units are sold only for replacements of existing units, all shipments to new construction are standard size units. The forecast of shipments to new construction is driven by a forecast of new construction of lodging and small office space from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The sales to new construction are added by vintage to the existing stock, and as each vintage slowly retires, it is replaced, generating a demand for replacement shipments. The existing equipment stock, both standard and non-standard, retires slowly, and beginning in 2013, is assumed not to be fully replaced as the stock of buildings using this equipment slowly leaves the inventory. Each year, each of the three components of stock is updated with retirements, replacements, and new additions.
Further, Chapter 11, national impact analysis of this Technical Support Document (TSD), discusses how to access the shipments model spreadsheet and other related spreadsheets, and appendix F provides basic instructions for using them. The rest of this chapter explains the shipments model in more detail. Section 10.3 presents the mathematical formulation of the model, section 10.4 describes the data inputs to the model, and section 10.5 presents the results for different amended energy-conservation standard level scenarios.
The amended energy conservation standards for PTACs and PTHPs will set the minimum equipment efficiency in terms of energy efficiency ratio (EER) and coefficient of performance (COP) for all equipment within an equipment class. DOE conducted shipments forecasts for all of the trial standard levels (TSLs) for which NES and NPV are required. DOE is considering seven TSLs for each of the six equipment classes analyzed. Refer to chapter 9 of the TSD for detail discussion on TSL selection.
10.2 OVERVIEW OF EQUIPMENT CLASSES AND MARKET SHARE
DOE defined four equipment categories for PTACs and PTHPs: 1) standard size PTACs, 2) standard size PTHPs, 3) non-standard size PTACs, 4) and non-standard size PTHPs. Standard size equipment has wall sleeve dimensions greater than or equal to16 inches high, or greater than or equal to 42 inches wide. Non-standard size equipment has wall sleeve dimensions less than 16 inches high and less than 42 inches wide. The standard size PTAC and PTHP equipment classes are further divided into two categories each: large-capacity (i.e., cooling capacity greater than or equal to 10,000 Btu/h) and small-capacity (i.e., cooling capacity less than 10,000 Btu/h). Each category is characterized by a representative unit at 12,000 Btu/h and 9,000 Btu/h, respectively. This results in a total of six representative units to be analyzed. See Chapter 3 of the TSD for details.

10-2Ducker Worldwide divides PTAC and PTHP equipment into several market segments. Table 10.2.1 gives the approximate size of these market segments for the year 2000.
Table 10.2.1 Market Segments for the U.S. PTAC and PTHP Market in the Year 2000

Standard Size Units Non-Standard Size Units New Installations 98,000 0 Replacement a 390,000 44,000 Total 488,000 44,000 Source: Ducker Worldwide (2001)
Market data in Table 10.2.1 indicates that standard size units comprise about 92 percent of the total market, with non-standard size units sharing the remaining 8 percent of the total market. Furthermore, about 80 percent of standard size units are used for the replacement market and 20 percent for the new construction installation. b Non-standard units are manufactured and sold to replace existing units that were installed at sleeve sizes different from the common industry standard sleeve dimension (i.e., 42 inches wide and 16 inches high) adopted in 1985.
Overall sales of PTAC and PTHP equipment were growing at the rate of about 6.6 percent per year for standard size units and at almost 11.1 percent for non-standard size units during the first few years after 2000. 1 Future non-standard size unit sales growth is limited by the number of units installed before 1985, so rapid growth in annual replacements of non-standard size units should eventually decline to near zero as the pre-1985 built buildings are renovated or demolished. Future replacement sales of standard size units are limited by the total existing number installed and their age distribution.

10.3 SHIPMENTS MODEL EQUATIONS

This section begins with a definition of the different PTAC and PTHP equipment stock categories. DOE formulated the equations as updates of the distribution of stock in year ( t ) as a function of age ( a ) to year ( t+1 ). Then DOE presented the different purchase decisions and, in the following section, provided a description of the data sources. DOE used a calculation of existing stock and the average age of the equipment as a basis for calculating replacement sales. Then, DOE subtracted replacement sales from historical total sales statistics to calculate the new sales of PTAC and PTHP equipment. DOE forecasted new sales as a function of new construction of hotel/motel, health care and office space. Sales of new and replacement equipment are recorded by the year sold, and each annual vintage is depreciated over the

a Standard size units are sometimes used to retrofit buildings that did not originally have standard size units. DOE believes that this is a relatively rare occurrence, and assumes that changing PTAC sleeve sizes generally does not happen. Thus, replacements are assumed to be the same size as the equipment they replace.

b In the context of this rulemaking analysis, “replacement” units are those used to replace an existing unit that hasworn out or failed. Most of the units in the replacement market are standard sleeve size units. Ducker refers to nonstandard size units as “specialty” units because of their relatively narrow market application, and ASHRAE refers to them as “replacement” units, in part because they are sold only as replacements in legacy applications where the original unit had a non-standard sleeve size. In this analysis these are described as “non-standard” units.

10-3estimated equipment life. Sales in each year are allocated to the four equipment classes and representative units in proportion to their relative historical sales.
10.3.1 Mathematical Formulation of the Shipments Model
DOE uses two PTAC and PTHP equipment stock categories. The category U 0 (t,a) is the stock of existing units. Available information suggests that all units have had normal repairs that do not affect the lifetime of the equipment.
PTAC and PTHP equipment lifetime can range from 1 to as many as 20 years. Based on discussions with industry experts and available literature reviews, DOE used a typical equipment life of 10 years for this analysis (see chapter 8 for further details). Also, available information suggests that the initial existing stock of equipment is assumed to have an average age of five years, based on the ten-year lifetime of a unit of equipment, and annual replacements going back 10 years. The total stock of age a in a given year t is represented by

U (t,a) = U 0 (t,a) Eq. 10.1
and the average age of the stock in year t is defined as
StockAge (t) = a U(t, a) x a / ( U ( t,a)) Eq. 10.2

where:

U (t,a) = total stock of age a in a given year t U

0 (t,a) = stock of existing units StockAge ( t ) = average age of stock in year t

a = age of stock in years
t = year. The shipments of new stock in a given year are Uship(t) . By definition, the age of the equipment is zero in the year that it is shipped, so that Uship(t) = U(t,0)

.
10.3.2 Stock Events
In the transition from year t to year t+1 , two things could happen to the stock of PTAC and PTHP equipment:

existing equipment could break or be removed during a building renovation and be replaced, or

the stock could simply age by one year.
In the model, early replacements (i.e., existing equipment that is replaced before the end of its useful life) are not considered, and all broken equipment are assumed to be replaced. The following sections present the equations used to represent each possible event.

10-410.3.2.1 Replacing Equipment
DOE determined the probability that units of PTAC and PTHP equipment of average age

a from initial stock U 0 will break or will be replaced using a known function PB 0 (a)=0.07, based on a Weibull statistical distribution of retir ements with a 10-year average life and maximum life of 20 years. Similarly, the probability that equipment of age a from stock U 1 will break is given by a Weibull function PB 1 (a) , with scale parameter of 10.2 and shape parameter of 2, truncated at 20 years. These probabilities do not depend on the model year t . DOE defines the quantities of replaced equipment as

UB (t, a) = PB 0 (a) x UB 0 (t,a) Eq. 10.3

where:

UB 0 ( t,a ) = stock of existing units PB 0 ( a ) = probability that stock of existing units will break, or will be replaced U

0 ( t,a ) = stock of existing units

a = average age of stock in years
t = year. All broken units (or units removed during store renovations) are assumed to be replaced.
10.3.2.2 New Equipment
New PTAC and PTHP equipment will be purchased to replace the units described above. In addition, new PTAC and PTHP equipment will be purchased to install in newly constructed buildings. Available information suggests that the purchase of new PTAC and PTHP equipment that would go into new buildings is driven by the rate of construction of hotels/motels, health care facilities, and office floor space.
By definition:

EFS (t+1) = EFS (t) + NFS (t) – DFS (t) Eq. 10.4

where: EFS(t) = the square footage of existing hotel/motel, health care, and office floor space in year t NFS(t) = the square footage of new hotel/motel, health care, and office floor space added in year t (described in section 10.4.3) DFS (t) = the square footage of existing hotel/motel, health care and office floor space demolished in year t (described in section 10.4.3).
The number of PTAC and PTHP units going into new buildings is

UN (t) = UN (0) x A 0 x NFS (t)/ NFS (0) Eq. 10.5

10-510-6 where:
UN(t) = the number of units going into new buildings in year t A 0 = an overall scale factor which accounts for the number of units covered by the standard which are not used in all commercial building types. The default value for A 0 is 1.0, and values of 0.5 and 1.5 are used for sensitivity testing.

DOE has no information on the variation in the market saturation of PTAC and PTHP equipment by building type or over time. Therefore, in the model, the purchase of new equipment is driven by the construction of new floor space, and broken or removed equipment is replaced on a one-for-one basis.

10.4 DATA INPUTS
10.4.1 Historical Shipments
Historical shipments are necessary to calibrate the shipments model to the existing market. DOE’s primary source of historical data for shipments of PTAC and PTHP equipment was the shipment data provided by the Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI). 2 ARI’s shipment data was broken out by specific PTAC and PTHP equipment class for 10 years (1997-2006), which allowed DOE to allocate sales of equipment to equipment classes. In addition, DOE used the Ducker Worldwide market study primarily to supplement the ARI shipment data.
Within each of the equipment classes, the shipments data are disaggregated into detailed equipment and capacity ranges using the ARI shipment data. The Ducker Worldwide shipment data are defined in a way that allowed DOE to disaggregate the ARI shipment ranges and equipment categories into the equipment classes identified for this rulemaking.
10.4.2 Historical Shipped Units
Historical shipments data provide by ARI depict the annual amount of PTAC and PTHP equipment capacity introduced into the marketplace. DOE converted shipped units to percent of shipped units for use in the shipments model, to establish the PTAC and PTHP equipment market share attributed to each equipment class. The market share calculation and its use in forecasting shipments are explained in section 10.4.3.2. DOE used the Ducker Worldwide and ARI shipment data to derive shipped units in each equipment class. Table 10.4.1 presents the historical shipments of all PTAC and PTHP equipment by cooling capacity ranges and the year of shipment.Table 10.4.1 Historical Shipments (Units Shipped) of PTAC and PTHP Equipment by Cooling Capacity and Year

Cooling Capacity (Thousand Btu/h) Year of Shipment*

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006**

PTAC 7.0 & Under 17,100 17,965 17,134 14,633 15,655 14,278 13,019 18,780 19,359 22,861

7.1–10.0 89,064 93,250 89,492 74,767 71,111 68,193 72,877 81,906 91,989 104,234 10.1–13.0 95,065 97,233 92,039 86,002 83,268 86,516 88,076 100,123 112,853 121,682 13.1–16.0 40,309 44,532 45,057 43,834 42,077 46,332 46,271 47,630 52,350 55,902 16.1 & Over 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
Subtotal 241,538 252,980 243,722 219,236 212,111 215,319 220,243 248,439 276,551 304,680

PTHP 7.0 & Under 11,898 15,763 15,116 10,935 10,345 9,374 9,994 10,656 14,455 15,900

7.1–10.0 78,666 89,556 78,953 66,826 65,214 63,446 63,827 71,756 73,287 89,742 10.1–13.0 67,451 74,600 73,764 66,680 63,236 62,844 65,146 70,559 74,973 81,316 13.1–16.0 34,004 37,692 41,682 38,465 36,923 38,181 39,570 44,229 44,459 48,313 16.1 & Over 0 0 0 2 0 0 77 0 153 -
Subtotals 192,019 217,611 209,515 182,908 175,718 173,845 178,614 197,200 207,327 235,271 Total (ARI) 433,557 470,591 453,237 402,144 387,829 389,164 398,857 445,639 483,878 539,951 * Source: ARI. ** For the year 2006, ARI reported sh ipments through October. The table values have been adjusted to a 12-month basis.
10.4.3 Hotel/Motel, Health Care, and Small Office Space and Market Saturation
The amount of commercial building floor space is the main driver for PTAC and PTHP equipment shipments and is one of the basic inputs into the shipments model. As discussed in section 10.3.2, the model divides commercial building floor space into two components: new construction floor space (NFS) and existing building floor space (EFS).
For this analysis, commercial square footage with PTAC and PTHP equipment refers to both new and existing stock of commercial buildings.
10.4.3.1 New Construction Floor Space
DOE took the projected floor space construction after the year 2003 from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) projection published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2008 ( AEO 2008 ). 3 AEO 2008 lists the projections for individual years 2004-2030. Table 10.4.2 shows 2006, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 for two building types: lodging (which includes hotels, motels, nursing homes and assisted care facilities) and small office (which includes the type offices covered in this analysis). Beyond 2030, DOE extrapolated NFS from the 10-year trend of NEMS projected data between 2020 and 2030.

10-7Table 10.4.2 Baseline Square Footage of New Construction Forecasts by Census Division and Building Type for PTACs and PTHPS (Millions of Square Feet) CHANGE

Census Division Building Type Year of Construction 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 New England Lodging 7.4 7.6 8.1 9.2 10.1 11.1 Small Office 6.0 4.3 5.6 6.6 5.6 5.8

Total 13.4 11.9 13.7 15.8 15.8 16.9 Mid Atlantic Lodging 19.6 17.7 19 .7 19.8 23.1 25.8 Small Office 20.7 14.1 16.5 19.5 17.8 18.5

Total 40.3 31.8 36.3 39.4 40.9 44.2 East North Central Lodging 12.5 13.5 14 .4 15.4 16.8 18.3 Small Office 19.3 18.7 22.1 22.4 21.6 24.5

Total 31.8 32.2 36.5 37.7 38.4 42.8 West North Central Lodging 14.9 16.5 13 .2 17.2 18.0 19.5 Small Office 10.5 12.4 14.5 13.4 14.7 15.3

Total 25.4 28.9 27.8 30.6 32.7 34.8 South Atlantic Lodging 20.8 26.0 26 .5 27.9 34.9 33.2 Small Office 23.6 21.7 27.9 31.1 29.9 30.2

Total 44.4 47.8 54.5 58.9 64.8 63.5 East South Central Lodging 7.8 11.3 9. 9 10.0 12.7 13.3 Small Office 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.6 8.0 8.2

Total 14.5 18.7 17.3 17.7 20.7 21.6 West South Central Lodging 9.4 9.6 10.7 11.4 12.7 14.1 Small Office 12.4 13.8 15.4 16.8 18.4 20.3

Total 21.8 23.4 26.1 28.2 31.1 34.4 Mountain Lodging 12.3 12.2 11 .9 14.5 15.7 17.1 Small Office 8.0 12.1 18.1 14 .1 14.2 17.4

Total 20.3 24.3 30.0 28.6 29.8 34.5 Pacific Lodging 15.3 16.4 18 .2 19.9 22.3 24.0 Small Office 28.1 22.7 22.2 26.1 28.8 27.7

Total 43.4 39.1 40.5 46.1 51.1 51.7 Total Lodging 120.2 130.8 132.7 145.3 166.2 176.4 Small Office 135.1 127.3 149.8 157.7 159.1 168.0

Total 255.3 258.1 282.5 303.0 325.3 344.3

Source: AEO 2008. 3

10-8The total of new space conditioning capacity is the estimated total shipments in units for 2006, multiplied by an index of new construction of square feet of the relevant commercial building space for each future year, divided by its 2006 value. The average rate of change in the construction index between 2020 and 2030 is used to project forward after 2030 until 2042, the last year in which PTAC and PTHP units are added. All existing PTACs and PTHPs are presumed to be replaced by a unit of the same equipment class and capacity (but not necessarily the same efficiency, since improved efficiency is possible during replacement) if it fails or is removed during a renovation. If the building is removed, the PTAC or PTHP is not replaced.
10.4.3.2 Market Shipments
DOE used the above shipments data to estimate the market shipments in year t of each PTAC and PTHP equipment class y, MKTSHIP(t,y) , defined in terms of units shipped for both new and replacement markets. DOE assumed that the percent of shipments in each equipment class is constant over time and the lifetime of each equipment class is the same (10 years), so the ratio of shipments to a class is indicative of the market share for that class, MKT(y) . DOE estimated the MKT(y) for a particular equipment class to be a constant value equal to the average of the yearly percent historical shipments to that class. These percentages are reported in Table 10.4.3.
MKTSHIP(t,y) = MKT(y) x ( UN(t) + UB(t) ) Eq. 10.6

where:
MKTSHIP(t,y) = total market shipments of equipment class y in year t , MKT(y) = percentage of total market shipments of equipment class y , UN(t) = total shipments to new buildings in year t , UB(t) = total replacement shipments in year t

. Table 10.4.3 Historical Percentage of Shipped Units by Equipment class for PTAC and PTHP Equipment (2005)
Representative Equipment and Cooling Capacity Description Percentage of Shipped Units Standard Size PTAC 9,000 Btu/h Includes all standard size PTAC units with cooling capacities less than 10,000 Btu/h 19.7%
Standard Size PTAC 12,000 Btu/h Includes all standard size PTAC units with cooling capacities greater than or equal to 10,000 Btu/h 29.0%
Standard Size PTHP 9,000 Btu/h Includes all standard size PTHP units with cooling capacities less than 10,000 Btu/h 15.4%
Standard Size PTHP 12,000 Btu/h Includes all standard size PTHP units with cooling capacities greater than or equal to 10,000 Btu/h 21.0%
Non-Standard Size PTAC 11,000 Btu/h Includes all cooling capacities of non-standard-size PTAC units 8.5%
Non-Standard Size PTHP 11,000 Btu/h Includes all cooling capacities of non-standard-size PTHP units 6.4%
Total 100% Sources: ARI and Ducker Worldwide, Inc. and 2000 Screening Analysis comments. c

c Refer to DOE’s Energy Conservatio n Program for Co nsumer Products: Screening Analysis for EPACT-Covered Commercial HVAC and Water-Heating Equipment Scree ning Analysis . April, 2000.
10-9DOE estimated total sales by adding replacement sales to new sales in each year. Taking the year 2000 as a baseline year and noting that 80 percent of the year 2000 market for standard size PTAC and PTHP equipment was for replacement of existing units, DOE estimated the total number of units for each equipment class that were replacing equipment. 1 DOE assumed that new units last an average of 10 years and that the average age of the existing stock is 5 years (half of an average lifetime). DOE set up an inventory accounting scheme to keep track of required replacements through the life of the buildings and the aging of new units as they are added to the inventory each year.
Ducker provides breakdowns of sales of standard size PTAC and PTHP equipment for the year 2000 by cooling capacity. 1 Derived from the ARI shipment data for the year 2000 and the Ducker report, Table 10.4.4 shows the number of sales by cooling capacity and type of standard size PTAC unit in 2000. Subtracting out hydronic units, a niche market whose sales are assumed to be replacement sales and constant over time, these adjusted percentages (shown in Table 10.4.5) are applied to total sales of new units.
Table 10.4.4 Estimated Replacement Sales of Standard Size PTAC and PTHP Equipment in the Year 2000

Type of Unit Equipment Capacity 7,000 Btu/h 9,000 Btu/h 12,000 Btu/h 15,000 Btu/h Total Sales PTAC 10,294 52,596 60,500 30,836 154,226 PTHP 7,791 47,611 47,507 27,407 130,316 Hydronic 132 673 774 395 1,973 Total 18,216 100,881 108,781 58,637 286,515 Source: ARI data, adjusted by percentages reported by Ducker 2000.
Table 10.4.5 Estimated New Sales of Standard Size PTAC and PTHP Equipment in the Year 2000

Type of Unit Equipment Capacity 7,000 Btu/h 9,000 Btu/h 12,000 Btu/h 15,000 Btu/h Total PTAC 3,414 16,672 18,284 8,572 46,942 PTHP 2,033 12,230 15,427 8,965 38,655 Total 5,447 28,903 33,710 17,537 85,597 Source: ARI data, adjusted by percentages reported by Ducker 2000.
A Weibull distribution with an average age of 10 years for the stock of PTAC and PTHP equipment would retire approximately eight percent of the PTAC and PTHP equipment stock annually. That is, replacement sales would equal about eight percent of the existing stock. This means that the 286,515 replacements of standard size units in the year 2000 (Table 10.4.4) corresponds to about 3.58 million total existing standard size units (Table 10.4.6) in the market. In addition, there are 44,000 non-standard size units shown in Table 10.2.1 that are being used to replace stock that was estimated to be 15 to 25 years old in the year 2000. 1 In this case, the hotels/motels and other businesses are likely replacing more than one year’s equipment failures as part of property refurbishment and upgrade. This assumption is supported by the fact that the rapid growth in non-standard size unit replacement sales (11.1 percent per year) began in about 1997, when the stock would have been 12 to 22 years old. At that time, annual equipment failures would have average 3.3 percent per year and are known to have been about 30,000 units per year. If the 1997 sales was replacement of failures only, then the total number of units in the

10-10stock would have been about 900,000. If 3.3 percent is used as the average failure rate, then the stock of non-standard units would have been 900,000 units (Table 10.4.6). With 3 years of catch-up, by the year 2000, an extra 25,000 units would have been purchased (14,000 in the year 2000 since Ducker estimates a total of 44,000 non-standard size sales in that year), which would have made the non-standard size stock average age younger by about one year compared with 1997, but would not have increased the size of the stock. Table 10.4.6 provides the resulting stock estimates and replacement sales for the year 2000.
Table 10.4.6 Estimated Stock of PTAC and PTHP Units and Replacement Sales in the Year 2000
Stock (Units) Annual Replacement Sales (Units) Standard Size Units 3,581,440 286,515 Non-standard Size Units 900,000 30,000 Non-standard Size Units N/A 14,000 (Catch-up sales) Total 4,481,440 330,515

10.5 RESULTS
Table 10.5.1 shows the forecasted shipments for PTAC and PTHP equipment classes for the base case efficiency level as listed in ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1-1999 for selected years from 2012 to 2042. As equipment purchase price increases with efficiency, a drop in shipments is expected. Although there is a provision in the shipments analysis spreadsheet for a change in shipments as the trial standard level increases (and the equipment becomes more expensive), DOE had no information with which to calibrate such a relationship. Therefore, for the NOPR analysis, DOE assumed that total shipments do not change with trial standard levels. Table 10.5.1 also shows the cumulative shipments for PTAC and PTHP equipment from 2012 to 2042.
Table 10.5.1 Forecasted Shipments for PTAC and PTHP Equipment, Base Case for Selected Years

Equipment Thousands of Units Shipped by Year and Equipment Class

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Cumulative Shipments (2012-2042) Standard Size PTACs 271 284 317 359 394 440 490 512 11,700
Standard Size PTHPs 202 212 237 268 294 329 366 382 8,745
Non-Standard Size PTACs 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 398
Non-Standard Size PTHPs 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 300

Total 503 525 579 650 709 787 873 910 21,143

10-1110-12 REFERENCES

1. Ducker Worldwide. 2001. 2000 U.S. Market for Residential and Specialty Air Conditioning: PTAC (Packaged Terminal Air Conditioning) . HVAC0002. Final Report, March 2001. Ducker Industrial Standards, 6905 Telegraph Road Suite 300, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan 48301.
2. Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute, 4100 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 200, Arlington, Virginia 22203, U.S.A.
3. EIA (Energy Information Administration). 2008. Annual Energy Outlook 2008

. DOE/EIA-0383(2008). U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Washington D.C.