Analysis of the impact of different coal generation scenarios on carbon rate and required renewables to meet EPA goal.

RE target

Demandside EE

Resulting 

Interim Rate 

(lbs./MWh)

Resulting 

Final Rate 

(lbs./MWh)

Avoided

Generation

2012 Baseline 4,133,662 279,983 23,783,256 198,037 2,990,540 988

NV Goal 0 0 28,196,901 198,037 6,405,939 3,908,761 697 647

Case 1. Valmy and TS continue 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 198,037 6,405,939 3,908,761 793 736

Case 1A. As above, RE offsets coal 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 198,037 11,756,995 3,908,761 753 647

Case 2. Valmy closes in 2025 1,120,719 0 27,076,182 198,037 6,405,939 3,908,761 766 684

Case 2A. As above, RE offsets coal 1,120,719 0 27,076,182 198,037 8,618,095 3,908,761 749 647

Conclusions:

The interim goal is impossible to meet with any remaining coal generation.

In case 1A, renewables generation would have to grow 13.5%/yr from 2020-2029 to offset coal. RE as percent of total generation would be 41%

In case 2A, renewables generation would have to grow 9.65%/yr from 2020-2029 to offset coal. RE as a percent of total generation would be 30%

RE

 Generation (MWh)

Coal Gen OG Steam 

Gen

NGCC Gen Other
State

Coal Rate 

(lb/MWh)

NGCC Rate 

(lb/MWh)

O/G rate 

(lb/MWh)

Other Emissions 

(lbs)

Hist Coal Gen 

(MWh)

Hist NGCC 

Gen. (MWh)

Nevada Goal Proposed by EPA; RE grows at 6.1%/yr to 6.4 TWh 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256

Case 1. Only R-G closes by 2020; TS and Valmy continue 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256

 Case 1A. As above, RE grows to offset coal (13.5%/yr to 11.75 TWh) 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256

Case 2. Valmy closes in 2025; TS continues 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256

 Case 2A. As above, RE grows to offset coal (9.65%/yr to 8.62 TWh) 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256

Step 1 (2012 Data for Fossil Sources)
Step 2 (HRI)

Historic OG 

steam Gen. 

(MWh)

Other Gen. 

(MWh)

NGCC Capacity 

(MW )

Under 

Construction 

NGCC Capacity 

(MW)

Adj. Coal Rate 

(lbs/MWh)

Redispatche

d Coal Gen. 

(MWh)

Redispatch 

O/G steam 

Gen. (MWh)

Redispatched 

NGCC Gen. 

(MWh)

Other Emissions 

(lbs)

Other Gen. 

(MWh)

2012 NGCC 

Capacity 

Factor*

279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 0 0 28,196,901 172,680,512 198,037 42%

279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 172,680,512 198,037 42%

279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 172,680,512 198,037 42%

279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 172,680,512 198,037 42%

279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 172,680,512 198,037 42%

a for Fossil Sources) Step 3a & 3b (Redispatch)
Step 4a Nuclear

Post Redispatch 

Assumed NGCC 

Capacity Factor 

for Existing Fleet

Nuclear 

Generation Under 

Construction and 

"At Risk" (MWh)

2020 Existing and 

Incremental RE

2021 Existing and 

Incremental RE

2022 Existing and 

Incremental RE

2023 Existing and 

Incremental RE

2024 Existing and 

Incremental RE

2025 Existing and 

Incremental RE

2026 Existing and 

Incremental RE

50% 3,761,262 3,990,506 4,233,722 4,491,761 4,765,528 5,055,980 5,364,135

45% 3,761,262 3,990,506 4,233,722 4,491,761 4,765,528 5,055,980 5,364,135

45% 3,761,262 4,269,032 4,845,352 5,499,474 6,241,903 7,084,560 8,040,975

45% 3,761,262 3,990,506 4,233,722 4,491,761 4,765,528 5,055,980 5,364,135

45% 3,761,262 4,124,224 4,522,211 4,958,605 5,437,110 5,961,791 6,537,104

Step 4b Renewable (MWh)
2027 Existing and 

Incremental RE

2028 Existing and 

Incremental RE

2029 Existing and 

Incremental RE

2020 EE 

Potential

2021 EE 

Potential

2022 EE 

Potential

2023 EE 

Potential

2024 EE 

Potential

2025 EE 

Potential

2026 EE 

Potential

5,691,072 6,037,935 6,405,939 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85%

5,691,072 6,037,935 6,405,939 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85%

9,126,507 10,358,586 11,756,995 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85%

5,691,072 6,037,935 6,405,939 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85%

7,167,934 7,859,640 8,618,095 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85%

Step 5 (Demand Side EE - % of avoided MWh sales)
2027 EE 

Potential

2028 EE 

Potential

2029 EE Potential 

(%)

State Generation 

as % of sales

2012 Total MWh 

(sales x 1.0751) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 754 740 726 713 700 688 677

9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 858 842 826 811 797 783 771

9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 858 835 811 788 765 742 719

9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 858 842 826 811 797 727 715

9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 858 839 819 800 782 709 693

% of avoided MWh sales) Step 6&7 (State Goal Phase I & II (lbs/MWh))
2027 2028 2029

Interim Goal 

(2020 - 2029 

average)

Final Goal 

(2030 and 

thereafter)

667 657 647 697 647

759 747 736 793 736

695 671 647 753 647

704 694 684 766 684

678 662 647 749 647

Goal Phase I & II (lbs/MWh))
Category State Plant Name ORIS code Generator ID

Fuel 

type

Prime 

mover 

type

Nameplate 

Capacity

(MW)

Capacity

Input

Electric 

Generation 

(MWh)

COALST NV Reid Gardner 2324 1 BIT ST 114.0 1,250 120,601.0

COALST NV Reid Gardner 2324 2 BIT ST 114.0 1,250 54,951.0

COALST NV Reid Gardner 2324 3 BIT ST 114.0 1,250 92,413.0

COALST NV Reid Gardner 2324 4 BIT ST 294.8 1,250 1,116,450.0

COALST NV Mohave 2341 1 SUB ST 818.1 0 0.0

COALST NV Mohave 2341 2 SUB ST 818.1 0 0.0

COALST NV North Valmy 8224 1 SUB ST 277.2 2,560 833,327.0

COALST NV North Valmy 8224 2 SUB ST 289.8 2,560 795,201.0

COALST NV TS Power Plant 56224 001 SUB ST 242.0 2,462 1,120,719.0

Totals 3082.0 4,133,662.0

1,628,528.0

2,749,247.0

1,384,415.0

3,012,943.0
EIA Ratio (EAF) 

eMMBtu/totMMBtu

Useful Thermal 

Output (UTO) 

(MMBtu) 1

Net Energy Output 

(MWh) 2

Carbon Dioxide 

Emissions (Unadjusted)

(tons)

UNITKEEP 

(CA<25 part of 

CC with CT>25) Source Category Cogen Flag Y/N Unit Status 

120,601.0 165,123.8 Electric Utility N OP

54,951.0 86,612.1 Electric Utility N OP

92,413.0 143,464.7 Electric Utility N OP

1,116,450.0 1,341,018.3 Electric Utility N OP

0.0 0.0 Electric Utility N RE

0.0 0.0 Electric Utility N RE

833,327.0 843,206.5 Electric Utility N OP

795,201.0 884,872.1 Electric Utility N OP

1,120,719.0 1,236,909.2 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP

4,133,662.0 4,701,206.7
Unit Status Notes Exclusion Description
Category State Plant Name ORIS code Generator ID

Fuel 

type

Prime 

mover 

type

Nameplate 

Capacity

(MW)

Capacity

Input

Electric 

Generation 

(MWh)

NGCC NV Clark 2322 10 NG CC 104.4 0 84,638.3

NGCC NV Clark 2322 9 NG CC 104.4 0 84,638.3

NGCC NV Clark 2322 GT5 NG CC 92.5 0 74,990.8

NGCC NV Clark 2322 GT6 NG CC 92.5 0 74,990.8

NGCC NV Clark 2322 GT7 NG CC 92.5 0 74,990.8

NGCC NV Clark 2322 GT8 NG CC 92.5 0 74,990.8

NGCC NV Tracy 2336 10 NG CC 312.0 920 1,553,077.3

NGCC NV Tracy 2336 4 NG CC 69.7 920 346,953.5

NGCC NV Tracy 2336 5 NG CC 50.2 920 249,886.2

NGCC NV Tracy 2336 8 NG CC 155.6 920 774,547.5

NGCC NV Tracy 2336 9 NG CC 155.6 920 774,547.5

NGCC NV Harry Allen 7082 5 NG CC 167.5 2,100 1,023,385.7

NGCC NV Harry Allen 7082 6 NG CC 167.5 2,100 1,023,385.7

NGCC NV Harry Allen 7082 7 NG CC 223.5 2,100 1,365,532.6

NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration LP 10761 GEN1 NG CC 49.8 420 40,327.4

NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration LP 10761 GEN2 NG CC 11.5 420 9,312.6

NGCC NV Saguaro Power 54271 CTG1 NG CC 45.1 0 253,441.1

NGCC NV Saguaro Power 54271 CTG2 NG CC 45.1 0 253,441.1

NGCC NV Saguaro Power 54271 STG NG CC 37.0 0 207,922.8

NGCC NV Nevada Cogen Associates 2 Black Mountain 54349 STM NG CC 29.7 0 224,738.3

NGCC NV Nevada Cogen Assoc#1 GarnetVly 54350 STM NG CC 29.7 0 217,020.3

NGCC NV Desert Star Energy Center 55077 ED01 NG CC 170.0 1,925 774,501.9

NGCC NV Desert Star Energy Center 55077 ED02 NG CC 170.0 1,925 774,501.9

NGCC NV Desert Star Energy Center 55077 ED03 NG CC 196.0 1,925 892,955.2

NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322 CTG1 NG CC 201.5 2,381 875,932.3

NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322 CTG2 NG CC 201.5 2,381 875,932.3

NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322 CTG3 NG CC 201.5 2,381 875,932.3

NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322 CTG4 NG CC 201.5 2,381 875,932.3

NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322 ST1 NG CC 329.8 2,381 1,433,659.9

NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322 ST2 NG CC 329.8 2,381 1,433,659.9

NGCC NV Apex Generating Station 55514 CTG1 NG CC 174.0 2,410 389,098.3

NGCC NV Apex Generating Station 55514 CTG2 NG CC 174.0 2,410 389,098.3

NGCC NV Apex Generating Station 55514 STG1 NG CC 252.6 2,410 564,863.4

NGCC NV Higgins Generating Station 55687 A01 NG CC 178.0 2,404 675,529.4

NGCC NV Higgins Generating Station 55687 A02 NG CC 178.0 2,404 675,529.4

NGCC NV Higgins Generating Station 55687 ST1 NG CC 332.4 2,404 1,261,494.2

NGCC NV Silverhawk 55841 CT1 NG CC 197.2 2,463 529,920.6

NGCC NV Silverhawk 55841 CT2 NG CC 197.2 2,463 529,920.6

NGCC NV Silverhawk 55841 ST1 NG CC 270.3 2,463 726,356.7

NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952 GEN3 NG CC 60.5 470 89,789.8

NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952 GEN4 NG CC 60.5 470 89,789.8
NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952 GEN5 NG CC 60.5 470 89,789.8

NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952 GEN6 NG CC 60.5 470 89,789.8

NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952 GEN7 NG CC 27.8 470 41,258.8

NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952 GEN8 NG CC 27.8 470 41,258.8

6381.2 23,783,255.7
EIA Ratio (EAF) 

eMMBtu/totMMBtu

Useful Thermal 

Output (UTO) 

(MMBtu) 1

Net Energy Output 

(MWh) 2

Carbon Dioxide 

Emissions (Unadjusted)

(tons)

UNITKEEP 

(CA<25 part of 

CC with CT>25) Source Category Cogen Flag Y/N Unit Status 

84,638.3 45,478.7 Electric Utility N OP

84,638.3 45,478.7 Electric Utility N OP

74,990.8 40,294.9 Electric Utility N OP

74,990.8 40,294.9 Electric Utility N OP

74,990.8 40,294.9 Electric Utility N OP

74,990.8 40,294.9 Electric Utility N OP

1,553,077.3 698,679.4 Electric Utility N OP

346,953.5 156,083.2 Electric Utility N OP

249,886.2 112,415.7 Electric Utility N OP

774,547.5 348,444.0 Electric Utility N OP

774,547.5 348,444.0 Electric Utility N OP

1,023,385.7 414,998.6 Electric Utility N OP

1,023,385.7 414,998.6 Electric Utility N OP

1,365,532.6 553,744.4 Electric Utility N OP

1.0 0.0 40,327.4 18,077.8 Electric Utility/IPP CHP Y OP

1.0 0.0 9,312.6 4,174.6 1 Electric Utility/IPP CHP Y OP

0.9 80,088.3 271,045.5 145,640.5 IPP CHP Y OP

0.9 80,088.3 271,045.5 145,640.5 IPP CHP Y OP

0.9 65,704.4 222,365.5 119,483.3 IPP CHP Y OP

0.7 432,360.6 319,776.6 123,955.7 IPP CHP Y OP

0.8 242,693.2 270,367.3 115,660.1 IPP CHP Y OP

774,501.9 339,560.2 Electric Utility N OP

774,501.9 339,560.2 Electric Utility N OP

892,955.2 391,493.0 Electric Utility N OP

1.0 0.0 875,932.3 380,759.0 Electric Utility Y OP

875,932.3 380,759.0 Electric Utility N OP

875,932.3 380,759.0 Electric Utility N OP

875,932.3 380,759.0 Electric Utility N OP

1,433,659.9 623,197.6 Electric Utility N OP

1,433,659.9 623,197.6 Electric Utility N OP

389,098.3 166,294.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP

389,098.3 166,294.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP

564,863.4 241,413.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP

675,529.4 302,123.0 Electric Utility N OP

675,529.4 302,123.0 Electric Utility N OP

1,261,494.2 564,189.2 Electric Utility N OP

529,920.6 243,186.8 Electric Utility N OP

529,920.6 243,186.8 Electric Utility N OP

726,356.7 333,333.6 Electric Utility N OP

89,789.8 42,144.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP

89,789.8 42,144.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP
89,789.8 42,144.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP

N OP

89,789.8 42,144.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHPN OP

41,258.8 19,365.4 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHPN OP

41,258.8 19,365.4 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHPN OP
Unit Status Notes Exclusion Description

Category State Plant Name ORIS code Generator ID

Fuel 

type

Prime 

mover 

type

Nameplate 

Capacity

(MW)

Capacity

Input

Electric 

Generation 

(MWh)

OGST NV Fort Churchill 23301 NG ST 115.0 1,320 131,900.0

OGST NV Fort Churchill 23302 NG ST 115.0 1,320 118,105.0

OGST NV Tracy 23363 NG ST 119.8 1,150 29,848.0

OGST NV Tracy 2336 ST1 NG ST 50.0 1,150 -428.0

OGST NV Tracy 2336 ST2 NG ST 75.0 1,150 -834.0

OGST NV Nevada Solar One 56405 ONE NG ST 75.70 1,392.0

279,983.0
EIA Ratio (EAF) 

eMMBtu/totMMBtu

Useful Thermal 

Output (UTO) 

(MMBtu) 1

Net Energy Output 

(MWh) 2

Carbon Dioxide 

Emissions (Unadjusted)

(tons)

UNITKEEP 

(CA<25 part of 

CC with CT>25) Source Category Cogen Flag Y/N Unit Status 

131,900.0 92,694.9 Electric Utility N OP

118,105.0 85,998.4 Electric Utility N OP

29,848.0 24,477.3 Electric Utility N OP

-428.0 0.0 Electric Utility N OP

-834.0 0.0 Electric Utility N OP

1,392.0 1,097.1 IPP Non-CHP N OP
Unit Status Notes Exclusion Description
 State State-Plant 

 Sum of Carbon 

Dioxide (tons) 

 Sum of Electric 

Generation 

(MWh) 

Nevada NV -

Nevada Cogen Assoc#1 GarnetVly

Nevada Cogen Associates 2 Black Mountain

Saguaro Power

High Utilization Simple Cycle Tur
 Sum of Net 

Energy Output 

(MWh) 

 Emission Rate 

(lb/MWh) - net 

electric 

 Emission Rate 

(lb/MWh) - net 

energy output 

 Sum of Carbon 

Dioxide (tons) 

 Sum of Electric 

Generation 

(MWh) 

 Sum of Net 

Energy Output 

(MWh) 

 - -

tilization Simple Cycle Turbine (SST) = "Other" IGCC = "Other"
Useful Thermal Ouput (UTO) = "Other"

 Emission Rate 

(lb/MWh) - net 

electric 

 Emission Rate 

(lb/MWh) - net 

energy output 

 Useful Thermal 

Output (MWh) 

 Emissions Associated 

with Useful thermal 

Output (tons)* 

 Other Generation 

(SST + IGCC + UTO) 

(MWh) 

 198,037 86,340 198,037

 53,347 22,821

 95,038 36,840

 49,651 26,679

GCC = "Other"
 Other Emissions 

(tons) (SST + IGCC + 

UTO) 

 Other Emissions 

(lbs) (SST + IGCC + 

UTO) 

 86,340 172,680,511.96

"Other"
U.S. Department of Energy, The Energy Information Administration (EIA)

EIA-923 Monthly Generation and Fuel Consumption Time Series File, 2012 Final_Release

Sources: EIA-923 and EIA-860 Reports

Plant Name Operator Name Sector Name

Reported Prime 

Mover

Reported Fuel Type 

Code

Net Generation 

(Megawatthours) YEAR

Desert Peak Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 97,970 2012

Beowawe Power Terra-Gen Operating Company NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 0 2012

Beowawe Power Terra-Gen Operating Company NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 102,404 2012

Steamboat Hills LP Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 35,778 2012

Steamboat Hills LP Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 42,069 2012

Stillwater Facility Enel Stillwater LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 151,697 2012

Caithness Dixie Valley Terra-Gen Operating Company NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 478,200 2012

Steamboat 1A Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 942 2012

Soda Lake Geothermal No I II Magma Energy US Corp NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 64,421 2012

Steamboat II Steamboat Development Corp NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 82,380 2012

Steamboat III Steamboat Development Corp NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 92,340 2012

Wabuska Homestretch Geothermal LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 10,345 2012

Brady Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 66,796 2012

Richard Burdette Geothermal Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 150,251 2012

Galena 2 Geothermal Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 66,954 2012

Galena 3 Geothermal Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 158,831 2012

NGP Blue Mountain I LLC NGP Blue Mountain I LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 257,184 2012

ENEL Salt Wells LLC ENEL Salt Wells LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 105,677 2012

Jersey Valley Geothermal Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 56,477 2012

McGinness Hills Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 159,074 2012

Tuscarora Geothermal Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 129,262 2012

San Emidio USG Nevada LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 30,045 2012

San Emidio USG Nevada LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 0 2012

State-Fuel Level Increment State-Fuel Level Increment NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 8,368 2012

Waste Management Lockwood LFGTE WM Renewable Energy LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen IC LFG 18,961 2012

Stillwater Facility Enel Stillwater LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 0 2012

Nevada Solar One Acciona Solar Power NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST SUN 128,935 2012

Western 102 Power Plant Barrick Goldstrike Mines Inc Industrial NAICS Non-Cogen PV SUN 2,770 2012

Nellis Air Force Base Solar Array Solar Star NAFB LLC

Commercial NAICS NonCogen PV SUN 32,159 2012

CM10 Copper Mountain 1 LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 21,245 2012

CM48 Copper Mountain 1 LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 106,378 2012

Silver State Solar Power North First Solar Energy LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 87,742 2012

Copper Mountain Solar 2 Copper Mountain Solar 2, LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 72,066 2012

State-Fuel Level Increment State-Fuel Level Increment NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 22,122 2012

Spring Valley Wind Project Pattern Operators LP NAICS-22 Non-Cogen WT WND 128,788 2012

TOTAL = 2,968,630