# Analysis of the impact of different coal generation scenarios on carbon rate and required renewables to meet EPA goal.

**RE target Demand** 

**side EE Resulting** 

**Interim Rate (lbs./MWh)**  **Resulting**

**Final Rate (lbs./MWh)** 

Avoided

Generation

**2012 Baseline** 4,133,662 279,983 23,783,256 198,037 2,990,540 988 **NV Goal** 0 0 28,196,901 198,037 6,405,939 3,908,761 697 647 **Case 1. Valmy and TS continue 2,749,247**  0 **25,447,654** 198,037 6,405,939 3,908,761 **793 736**  **Case 1A. As above, RE offsets coal 2,749,247**  0 **25,447,654** 198,037 **11,756,995**3,908,761 **753** 647 **Case 2. Valmy closes in 2025** 1,120,719 0 27,076,182 198,037 6,405,939 3,908,761 **766 684**  **Case 2A. As above, RE offsets coal** 1,120,719 0 27,076,182 198,037 **8,618,095** 3,908,761 **749** 647

**Conclusions:** The interim goal is impossible to meet with any remaining coal generation. In case 1A, renewables generation would have to grow 13.5%/yr from 2020-2029 to offset coal. RE as percent of total generation would be 41% In case 2A, renewables generation would have to grow 9.65%/yr from 2020-2029 to offset coal. RE as a percent of total generation would be 30% RE **Generation (MWh)**

Coal Gen OG Steam

Gen NGCC Gen Other

### State Coal Rate (lb/MWh)NGCC Rate

(lb/MWh) O/G rate

(lb/MWh) Other Emissions

(lbs) Hist Coal Gen

(MWh) Hist NGCC

Gen. (MWh) Nevada Goal Proposed by EPA; RE grows at 6.1%/yr to 6.4 TWh 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256 Case 1. Only R-G closes by 2020; TS and Valmy continue 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256 Case 1A. As above, RE grows to offset coal (13.5%/yr to 11.75 TWh) 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256 Case 2. Valmy closes in 2025; TS continues 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256 Case 2A. As above, RE grows to offset coal (9.65%/yr to 8.62 TWh) 2,275 883 1,459 172,680,512 4,133,662 23,783,256 **Step 1 (2012 Data for Fossil Sources)**

### Step 2 (HRI)

Historic OG steam Gen. (MWh) Other Gen.

(MWh) NGCC Capacity

(MW ) Under

Construction NGCC Capacity (MW) Adj. Coal Rate

(lbs/MWh) Redispatche

d Coal Gen. (MWh) Redispatch

O/G steam Gen. (MWh)Redispatched

NGCC Gen. (MWh) Other Emissions

(lbs) Other Gen.

(MWh) 2012 NGCC

Capacity Factor* 279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 0 0 28,196,901 172,680,512 198,037 42% 279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 172,680,512 198,037 42% 279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 172,680,512 198,037 42% 279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 172,680,512 198,037 42% 279,983 198,037 6,381 0 2,138 2,749,247 0 25,447,654 172,680,512 198,037 42% **Step 1 (2012 Data for Fossil Sources) Step 3a & 3b (Redispatch)** 

### Step 4a Nuclear

Post Redispatch Assumed NGCC Capacity Factor for Existing FleetNuclear

Generation Under Construction and "At Risk" (MWh) 2020 Existing and

Incremental RE 2021 Existing and

Incremental RE 2022 Existing and

Incremental RE 2023 Existing and

Incremental RE 2024 Existing and

Incremental RE 2025 Existing and

Incremental RE 2026 Existing and

Incremental RE 50% 3,761,262 3,990,506 4,233,722 4,491,761 4,765,528 5,055,980 5,364,135 45% 3,761,262 3,990,506 4,233,722 4,491,761 4,765,528 5,055,980 5,364,135 45% 3,761,262 4,269,032 4,845,352 5,499,474 6,241,903 7,084,560 8,040,975 45% 3,761,262 3,990,506 4,233,722 4,491,761 4,765,528 5,055,980 5,364,135 45% 3,761,262 4,124,224 4,522,211 4,958,605 5,437,110 5,961,791 6,537,104 **Step 4b Renewable (MWh)**

### 2027 Existing and

Incremental RE 2028 Existing and

Incremental RE 2029 Existing and

Incremental RE 2020 EE

Potential 2021 EE

Potential 2022 EE

Potential 2023 EE

Potential 2024 EE

Potential 2025 EE

Potential 2026 EE

Potential 5,691,072 6,037,935 6,405,939 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85% 5,691,072 6,037,935 6,405,939 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85% 9,126,507 10,358,586 11,756,995 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85% 5,691,072 6,037,935 6,405,939 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85% 7,167,934 7,859,640 8,618,095 2.95% 4.02% 5.18% 6.24% 7.20% 8.07% 8.85% **Step 5 (Demand Side EE - % of avoided MWh sales)**

### 2027 EE

Potential 2028 EE

Potential 2029 EE Potential

(%) State Generation

as % of sales 2012 Total MWh

(sales x 1.0751) **2020 2021**  **2022 2023**  **2024 2025**  **2026** 9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 754 740 726 713 700 688 677 9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 858 842 826 811 797 783 771 9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 858 835 811 788 765 742 719 9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 858 842 826 811 797 727 715 9.54% 10.16% 10.69% 96.67% 37,821,930 858 839 819 800 782 709 693 **Step 5 (Demand Side EE - % of avoided MWh sales) Step 6&7 (State Goal Phase I & II (lbs/MWh))** 

### 2027 **2028 2029** **Interim Goal (2020 - 2029**  **average) Final Goal** 

**(2030 and thereafter)**  667 657 647 **697 647**  759 747 736 **793 736**  695 671 647 **753 647**  704 694 684 **766 684**  678 662 647 **749 647**  **Step 6&7 (State Goal Phase I & II (lbs/MWh)) Category**  **State Plant Name**  **ORIS code Generator ID**  **Fuel ty** **pe Prime** 

**mover ty** **pe Nameplate** 

**Capacity (MW)**  **Capacity**

**Input Electric** 

**Generation (MWh)**  COALST NV Reid Gardner 23241 BIT ST 114.0 1,250 120,601.0 COALST NV Reid Gardner 23242 BIT ST 114.0 1,250 54,951.0 COALST NV Reid Gardner 23243 BIT ST 114.0 1,250 92,413.0 COALST NV Reid Gardner 23244 BIT ST 294.8 1,250 1,116,450.0 COALST NV Mohave 23411 SUB ST 818.1 0 0.0 COALST NV Mohave 23412 SUB ST 818.1 0 0.0 COALST NV North Valmy 82241 SUB ST 277.2 2,560 833,327.0 COALST NV North Valmy 82242 SUB ST 289.8 2,560 795,201.0 COALST NV TS Power Plant 56224001 SUB ST 242.0 2,462 1,120,719.0 **Totals 3082.0**  **4,133,662.0** 

## 1,628,528.0 2,749,247.0 1,384,415.0

3,012,943.0**EIA**

**Ratio (EA F)**  **eMMBtu/totMMBtu Useful Thermal** 

**Output (UTO) (MMBtu)** **1 Net Energy**  **Output (MWh)** **2 Carbon Dioxide** 

**Emissions (Unadjusted) (tons)**  **UNITKEEP (CA**  **<25 part of CC with CT>25)** **Source Category Cogen Flag Y/N** **Unit Status** 120,601.0 165,123.8 Electric Utility N OP 54,951.0 86,612.1 Electric Utility N OP 92,413.0 143,464.7 Electric Utility N OP 1,116,450.0 1,341,018.3 Electric Utility N OP 0.0 0.0 Electric Utility N RE 0.0 0.0 Electric Utility N RE 833,327.0 843,206.5 Electric Utility N OP 795,201.0 884,872.1 Electric Utility N OP 1,120,719.0 1,236,909.2 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP **4,133,662.0 4,701,206.7** **Unit Status Notes Exclusion Description** **Category State**  **Plant Name ORIS code**  **Generator ID Fuel**  **ty pe**  **Prime**

**mover ty** **pe Nameplate** 

**Capacity (MW)**  **Capacity**

**Input Electric** 

**Generation (MWh)**  NGCC NV Clark 232210 NG CC 104.4 0 84,638.3 NGCC NV Clark 23229 NG CC 104.4 0 84,638.3 NGCC NV Clark 2322GT5 NG CC 92.5 0 74,990.8 NGCC NV Clark 2322GT6 NG CC 92.5 0 74,990.8 NGCC NV Clark 2322GT7 NG CC 92.5 0 74,990.8 NGCC NV Clark 2322GT8 NG CC 92.5 0 74,990.8 NGCC NV Tracy 233610 NG CC 312.0 920 1,553,077.3 NGCC NV Tracy 23364 NG CC 69.7 920 346,953.5 NGCC NV Tracy 23365 NG CC 50.2 920 249,886.2 NGCC NV Tracy 23368 NG CC 155.6 920 774,547.5 NGCC NV Tracy 23369 NG CC 155.6 920 774,547.5 NGCC NV Harry Allen 70825 NG CC 167.5 2,100 1,023,385.7 NGCC NV Harry Allen 70826 NG CC 167.5 2,100 1,023,385.7 NGCC NV Harry Allen 70827 NG CC 223.5 2,100 1,365,532.6 NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration LP 10761GEN1 NG CC 49.8 420 40,327.4 NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration LP 10761GEN2 NG CC 11.5 420 9,312.6 NGCC NV Saguaro Power 54271CTG1 NG CC 45.1 0 253,441.1 NGCC NV Saguaro Power 54271CTG2 NG CC 45.1 0 253,441.1 NGCC NV Saguaro Power 54271STG NG CC 37.0 0 207,922.8 NGCC NV Nevada Cogen Associates 2 Black Mountain 54349STM NG CC 29.7 0 224,738.3 NGCC NV Nevada Cogen Assoc#1 GarnetVly 54350STM NG CC 29.7 0 217,020.3 NGCC NV Desert Star Energy Center 55077ED01 NG CC 170.0 1,925 774,501.9 NGCC NV Desert Star Energy Center 55077ED02 NG CC 170.0 1,925 774,501.9 NGCC NV Desert Star Energy Center 55077ED03 NG CC 196.0 1,925 892,955.2 NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322CTG1 NG CC 201.5 2,381 875,932.3 NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322CTG2 NG CC 201.5 2,381 875,932.3 NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322CTG3 NG CC 201.5 2,381 875,932.3 NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322CTG4 NG CC 201.5 2,381 875,932.3 NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322ST1 NG CC 329.8 2,381 1,433,659.9 NGCC NV Chuck Lenzie Generating Station 55322ST2 NG CC 329.8 2,381 1,433,659.9 NGCC NV Apex Generating Station 55514CTG1 NG CC 174.0 2,410 389,098.3 NGCC NV Apex Generating Station 55514CTG2 NG CC 174.0 2,410 389,098.3 NGCC NV Apex Generating Station 55514STG1 NG CC 252.6 2,410 564,863.4 NGCC NV Higgins Generating Station 55687A01 NG CC 178.0 2,404 675,529.4 NGCC NV Higgins Generating Station 55687A02 NG CC 178.0 2,404 675,529.4 NGCC NV Higgins Generating Station 55687ST1 NG CC 332.4 2,404 1,261,494.2 NGCC NV Silverhawk 55841CT1 NG CC 197.2 2,463 529,920.6 NGCC NV Silverhawk 55841CT2 NG CC 197.2 2,463 529,920.6 NGCC NV Silverhawk 55841ST1 NG CC 270.3 2,463 726,356.7 NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952GEN3 NG CC 60.5 470 89,789.8 NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952GEN4 NG CC 60.5 470 89,789.8NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952GEN5 NG CC 60.5 470 89,789.8

NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952GEN6 NG CC 60.5 470 89,789.8 NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952GEN7 NG CC 27.8 470 41,258.8 NGCC NV Las Vegas Cogeneration II LLC 55952GEN8 NG CC 27.8 470 41,258.8 **6381.2 23,783,255.7** **EIA**

**Ratio (EA F)**  **eMMBtu/totMMBtu Useful Thermal** 

**Output (UTO) (MMBtu)** **1 Net Energy**  **Output (MWh)** **2 Carbon Dioxide** 

**Emissions (Unadjusted) (tons)**  **UNITKEEP (CA**  **<25 part of CC with CT>25)** **Source Category Cogen Flag Y/N** **Unit Status** 84,638.3 45,478.7 Electric Utility N OP 84,638.3 45,478.7 Electric Utility N OP 74,990.8 40,294.9 Electric Utility N OP 74,990.8 40,294.9 Electric Utility N OP 74,990.8 40,294.9 Electric Utility N OP 74,990.8 40,294.9 Electric Utility N OP 1,553,077.3 698,679.4 Electric Utility N OP 346,953.5 156,083.2 Electric Utility N OP 249,886.2 112,415.7 Electric Utility N OP 774,547.5 348,444.0 Electric Utility N OP 774,547.5 348,444.0 Electric Utility N OP 1,023,385.7 414,998.6 Electric Utility N OP 1,023,385.7 414,998.6 Electric Utility N OP 1,365,532.6 553,744.4 Electric Utility N OP 1.0 0.0 40,327.4 18,077.8 Electric Utility/IPP CHP Y OP 1.0 0.0 9,312.6 4,174.6 1Electric Utility/IPP CHP Y OP 0.9 80,088.3 271,045.5 145,640.5 IPP CHP Y OP 0.9 80,088.3 271,045.5 145,640.5 IPP CHP Y OP 0.9 65,704.4 222,365.5 119,483.3 IPP CHP Y OP 0.7 432,360.6 319,776.6 123,955.7 IPP CHP Y OP 0.8 242,693.2 270,367.3 115,660.1 IPP CHP Y OP 774,501.9 339,560.2 Electric Utility N OP 774,501.9 339,560.2 Electric Utility N OP 892,955.2 391,493.0 Electric Utility N OP 1.0 0.0 875,932.3 380,759.0 Electric Utility Y OP 875,932.3 380,759.0 Electric Utility N OP 875,932.3 380,759.0 Electric Utility N OP 875,932.3 380,759.0 Electric Utility N OP 1,433,659.9 623,197.6 Electric Utility N OP 1,433,659.9 623,197.6 Electric Utility N OP 389,098.3 166,294.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP 389,098.3 166,294.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP 564,863.4 241,413.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP 675,529.4 302,123.0 Electric Utility N OP 675,529.4 302,123.0 Electric Utility N OP 1,261,494.2 564,189.2 Electric Utility N OP 529,920.6 243,186.8 Electric Utility N OP 529,920.6 243,186.8 Electric Utility N OP 726,356.7 333,333.6 Electric Utility N OP 89,789.8 42,144.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP 89,789.8 42,144.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP89,789.8 42,144.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP 89,789.8 42,144.0 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP 41,258.8 19,365.4 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP 41,258.8 19,365.4 Electric Utility/IPP Non-CHP N OP**Unit Status Notes Exclusion Description** **Category State**  **Plant Name ORIS code**  **Generator ID Fuel**  **ty pe**  **Prime**

**mover ty** **pe Nameplate** 

**Capacity (MW)**  **Capacity**

**Input Electric** 

**Generation (MWh)**  OGST NV Fort Churchill 23301 NG ST 115.0 1,320 131,900.0 OGST NV Fort Churchill 23302 NG ST 115.0 1,320 118,105.0 OGST NV Tracy 23363 NG ST 119.8 1,150 29,848.0 OGST NV Tracy 2336ST1 NG ST 50.0 1,150 -428.0 OGST NV Tracy 2336ST2 NG ST 75.0 1,150 -834.0 OGST NV Nevada Solar One 56405ONE NG ST 75.7 0 1,392.0 **279,983.0 EIA** 

**Ratio (EA F)**  **eMMBtu/totMMBtu Useful Thermal** 

**Output (UTO) (MMBtu)** **1 Net Energy**  **Output (MWh)** **2 Carbon Dioxide** 

**Emissions (Unadjusted) (tons)**  **UNITKEEP (CA**  **<25 part of CC with CT>25)** **Source Category Cogen Flag Y/N** **Unit Status** 131,900.0 92,694.9 Electric Utility N OP 118,105.0 85,998.4 Electric Utility N OP 29,848.0 24,477.3 Electric Utility N OP -428.0 0.0 Electric Utility N OP -834.0 0.0 Electric Utility N OP 1,392.0 1,097.1 IPP Non-CHP N OP**Unit Status Notes Exclusion Description** 

## State State-Plant **Sum of Carbon Dioxide (tons)**  **Sum of Electric**

**Generation (MWh)**  Nevada NV

-

Nevada Cogen Assoc#1 GarnetVly Nevada Cogen Associates 2 Black Mountain Saguaro Power **High Utilization Simple Cycle Turbine (SST) = "Other"**

## Sum of Net

**Energy Output (MWh)**  **Emission Rate**

**(lb/MWh) - net electric**  **Emission Rate**

**(lb/MWh) - net energy output** **Sum of Carbon**

**Dioxide (tons) Sum of Electric** 

**Generation (MWh)**  **Sum of Net**

**Energy Output (MWh)** 

- - **High Utilization Simple Cycle Turbine (SST) = "Other" IGCC = "Other"** 

## Useful Thermal Ouput (UTO) = "Other"

**Emission Rate (lb/MWh) - net**  **electric Emission Rate** 

**(lb/MWh) - net energy output**  Useful Thermal

Output (MWh) Emissions Associated

with Useful thermal Output (tons)* Other Generation

(SST + IGCC + UTO) (MWh) 198,037 86,340 198,037 53,347 22,821 95,038 36,840 49,651 26,679 **IGCC = "Other"**

## Other Emissions

(tons) (SST + IGCC + UTO) Other Emissions

(lbs) (SST + IGCC + UTO) 86,340 172,680,511.96 "Other"**U.S. Department of Energy, The Energy Information Administration (EIA)**

**EIA-923 Monthly Generation and Fuel Consumption Time Series File, 2012 Final_Release Sources: EIA-923 and EIA-860 Reports** 

**Plant Name Operator Name**  **Sector Name Reported Prime**  **Mover Reported Fuel Type**  **Code Net Generation** 

**(Megaw atthours)** **YEA R**  Desert Peak Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 97,9702012 Beowawe Power Terra-Gen Operating Company NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 02012 Beowawe Power Terra-Gen Operating Company NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 102,4042012 Steamboat Hills LP Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 35,7782012 Steamboat Hills LP Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 42,0692012 Stillwater Facility Enel Stillwater LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 151,6972012 Caithness Dixie Valley Terra-Gen Operating Company NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 478,2002012 Steamboat 1A Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 942 2012 Soda Lake Geothermal No I II Magma Energy US Corp NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 64,421 2012 Steamboat II Steamboat Development Corp NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 82,3802012 Steamboat III Steamboat Development Corp NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 92,3402012 Wabuska Homestretch Geothermal LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 10,3452012 Brady Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 66,7962012 Richard Burdette Geothermal Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 150,251 2012 Galena 2 Geothermal Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 66,9542012 Galena 3 Geothermal Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 158,831 2012 NGP Blue Mountain I LLC NGP Blue Mountain I LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 257,1842012 ENEL Salt Wells LLC ENEL Salt Wells LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 105,6772012 Jersey Valley Geothermal Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 56,4772012 McGinness Hills Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 159,0742012 Tuscarora Geothermal Power Plant Ormat Nevada Inc NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 129,262 2012 San Emidio USG Nevada LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 30,0452012 San Emidio USG Nevada LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST GEO 02012 State-Fuel Level Increment State-Fuel Level Increment NAICS-22 Non-Cogen BT GEO 8,3682012 Waste Management Lockwood LFGTE WMRenewable Energy LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen IC LFG 18,961 2012 Stillwater Facility Enel Stillwater LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 02012 Nevada Solar One Acciona Solar Power NAICS-22 Non-Cogen ST SUN 128,9352012 Western 102 Power Plant Barrick Goldstrike Mines Inc Industrial NAICS Non-Cogen PV SUN 2,7702012

Nellis Air Force Base Solar Array Solar Star NAFB LLC Commercial NAICS NonCogen PV SUN 32,1592012 CM10 Copper Mountain 1 LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 21,2452012 CM48 Copper Mountain 1 LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 106,3782012 Silver State Solar Power North First Solar Energy LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 87,742 2012 Copper Mountain Solar 2 Copper Mountain Solar 2, LLC NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 72,0662012 State-Fuel Level Increment State-Fuel Level Increment NAICS-22 Non-Cogen PV SUN 22,122 2012 Spring Valley Wind Project Pattern Operators LP NAICS-22 Non-Cogen WT WND 128,7882012 TOTAL = **2,968,630**