APPENDIX 1 0B. S UPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS F OR T HE N ATIONAL I MPACT

A NALYSIS

T ABLE O F C ONTENTS

**1 0B.1**  **INTRODUCTION**

**................................. ................................................................10B­1** 

**1 0B.2**  **STANDARDS C**  **ASE EF**  **FICACY FORECAST,**  **LAMP S**  **TOCK A**  **ND**

**LUMEN OUTPUT.................................................................................................10B­1** 

**1 0B.3**  **NATIONAL ENER**  **GY S**  **AVINGS A**  **ND NET**  **P RESENT**  **VALUE R**  **ESULTS..10B­7**

L IST O F T ABLES

**Ta ble**  **1 0B.2.1**  **Commercial I**  **ncandescent R**  **eflector L**  **amps: B**  **ase C**  **ase a**  **nd S**  **tandards**

**C ase**  **( 65W**  **B R**  **L amp**  **S ubstitution**  **S ensitivity)**  **Ef ficacy**  **D istributions** 

**f rom**  **2 012**  **t o**  **2 042......................................................................................10B­1** 

**Ta ble**  **1 0B.2.2**  **Residential I**  **ncandescent R**  **eflector L**  **amps: B**  **ase C**  **ase a**  **nd S**  **tandards C**  **ase**

**( 65W**  **B R**  **L amp**  **S ubstitution**  **S ensitivity)**  **Ef ficacy**  **D istributions**  **f rom** 

**2 012**  **t o**  **2 042** 

**.............................................................................................. 10B­2** 

**Ta ble**  **1 0B.2.3**  **Residential I**  **ncandescent R**  **eflector L**  **amps: B**  **ase C**  **ase a**  **nd S**  **tandards C**  **ase**

**( 10**  **P ercent**  **L umen**  **I ncrease**  **S ensitivity)**  **Ef ficacy**  **D istributions**  **f rom** 

**2 012**  **t o**  **2 042** 

**.............................................................................................. 10B­2** 

**Ta ble**  **1 0B.3.1**  **Cumulative Na**  **tional En**  **ergy S**  **avings f**  **or C**  **ommercial I**  **RL (**  **65W B**  **R**

**L amp**  **S ubstitution**  **S ensitivity)**  **( 2012­2042)**  **( quads)** 

**. ...............................10B­8** 

**Ta ble**  **1 0B.3.2**  **Cumulative Na**  **tional En**  **ergy S**  **avings f**  **or R**  **esidential I**  **RL (**  **65W B**  **R L**  **amp**

**S ubstitution**  **S ensitivity)**  **( 2012­2042)**  **( quads)..........................................10B­8** 

**Ta ble**  **1 0B.3.3**  **Cumulative Na**  **tional En**  **ergy S**  **avings f**  **or R**  **esidential I**  **RL (**  **10 P**  **ercent**

**L umen**  **I ncrease**  **S ensitivity)**  **( 2012­2042)**  **( quads)** 

**... ................................10B­8** 

**Ta ble**  **1 0B.3.4**  **Cumulative NP**  **V Results**  **f or**  **C ommercial**  **I RL**  **( 65W**  **B R**  **La mp** 

**S ubstitution**  **S ensitivity)**  **( billion**  **2 006$)....................................................10B­9** 

**Ta ble**  **1 0B.3.5**  **Cumulative NP**  **V Results**  **f or**  **R esidential**  **I RL**  **( 65W**  **B R**  **L amp** 

**S ubstitution**  **S ensitivity)**  **( billion**  **2 006$)....................................................10B­9** 

**Ta ble**  **1 0B.3.6**  **Cumulative NP**  **V Results**  **f or**  **R esidential**  **I RL**  **( 10**  **P ercent**  **L umen**  **I ncrease** 

**S ensitivity)**  **( billion**  **2 006$)........................................................................10B­9** 

L IST O F F IGURES

**F igure**  **1 0B.2.1**  **Average Ef**  **ficacy o**  **f t**  **he C**  **ommercial I**  **RL S**  **tock (**  **65W B**  **R L**  **amp**

**S ubstitution**  **S ensitivity).............................................................................10B­3** 

**F igure**  **1 0B.2.2**  **Average Ef**  **ficacy o**  **f t**  **he R**  **esidential I**  **RL S**  **tock (**  **65W B**  **R La**  **mp**

**S ubstitution**  **S ensitivity).............................................................................10B­4** 

**F igure**  **1 0B.2.3**  **Average Ef**  **ficacy o**  **f t**  **he R**  **esidential I**  **RL S**  **tock (**  **10 P**  **ercent L**  **umen**

**I ncrease**  **S ensitivity)...................................................................................10B­5** 

**10B­i Figure**  **1 0B.2.4**  **Commercial I**  **RL L**  **umens S**  **erviced (**  **65W B**  **R L**  **amp S**  **ubstitution**

**S ensitivity)** 

**................................................................................................. 10B­6** 

**F igure**  **1 0B.2.5**  **Residential I**  **RL L**  **umens S**  **erviced (**  **65W B**  **R L**  **amp S**  **ubstitution**

**S ensitivity)** 

**................................................................................................. 10B­6** 

**F igure**  **1 0B.2.6**  **Residential I**  **RL L**  **umens S**  **erviced (**  **10 P**  **ercent L**  **umen I**  **ncrease**

**S ensitivity)** 

**................................................................................................. 10B­7** 

**10B­ii**APPENDIX 1 0B. S UPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS F OR T HE N ATIONAL I MPACTS

A NALYSIS

1 0B.1 I NTRODUCTION

**I n**  **t his**  **a ppendix,**  **D OE**  **presents i**  **nputs a**  **nd r**  **esults f**  **or t**  **wo a**  **dditional I**  **RL s**  **ensitivities.**

**D OE**  **presents t**  **he e**  **fficacy f**  **orecast, l**  **amp s**  **tock, l**  **umen o**  **utput, NES**  **and NP**  **V results**  **f or**  **t he**  **I RL** 

**6 5W**  **B R**  **l amp**  **s ubstitution**  **s ensitivity**  **a nd**  **f or**  **t he**  **I RL**  **1 0**  **p ercent**  **l umen**  **i ncrease**  **s ensitivity.** 

1 0B.2 S TANDARDS C ASE E FFICACY F ORECAST, L AMP S TOCK A ND L UMEN

O UTPUT

**A key**  **a spect**  **o f**  **D OE’s**  **e stimates**  **o f**  **NES and**  **NP V**  **is t**  **he p**  **roportions o**  **f f**  **uture l**  **amp**

**s hipments**  **m eeting**  **d ifferent**  **e fficacies**  **f or**  **t he**  **b ase**  **c ase**  **( without**  **n ew**  **standards) a**  **nd e**  **ach o**  **f t**  **he**

**s tandards**  **c ases**  **( with**  **n ew**  **standards). B**  **ecause k**  **ey i**  **nputs t**  **o t**  **he c**  **alculation o**  **f t**  **he NES**  **and**

**NP V**  **are d**  **ependent o**  **n t**  **he e**  **stimate o**  **f t**  **he e**  **fficacies s**  **hipped a**  **nd e**  **fficacies i**  **n t**  **he s**  **tock, i**  **t i**  **s**

**i mportant**  **t o**  **k now**  **the p**  **rojected e**  **fficacy­distribution o**  **f l**  **amp s**  **hipments. Ta**  **ble 1**  **0B.2.1 presents** 

**t he**  **e fficacy**  **d istribution**  **o f**  **l amp**  **s hipments**  **f or**  **c ommercial**  **I RL**  **u nder**  **t he**  **6 5W**  **B R**  **l amp** 

**s ubstitution**  **s ensitivity.** 

T able 1 0B.2.1 Commercial I ncandescent R eflector L amps: B ase C ase a nd S tandards C ase

( 65W B R Lamp S ubstitution S ensitivity) E fficacy D istributions f rom 2 012 t o 2 042

Year L evel T echnology P roportions o f C ommercial I RL

S hipped ( %)

B ase

C ase S tandards C ase

( 65W B R L amp

S ubstitution Sensitivity)

1 2 3

**65W B**  **R I**  **ncandescent 0**  **10 10**  **2 1** 

**B aseline**  **H alogen**  **82**

**­ ­**  **­**

2012 **1 Improved** 

**H alogen**  **0 70** 

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **18 20**  **90**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **H IR**  **0 0**  **0 79** 

T otal 100 1 00 1 00 1 00

**65W B**  **R I**  **ncandescent 0**  **10 10**  **2 4** 

**B aseline**  **H alogen**  **54**

**­ ­**  **­**

2042 **1 Improved** 

**H alogen**  **0 45** 

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **46 45**  **90**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **H IR**  **0 0**  **0 76** 

T otal 100 1 00 1 00 1 00

**1 0B­1** **Table 1**  **0B.2.2 presents**  **t he**  **e fficacy**  **d istribution**  **o f**  **l amp**  **s hipments**  **f or**  **r esidential**  **I RL**  **u nder**  **t he** 

**6 5W**  **B R**  **l amp**  **s ubstitution**  **s ensitivity.** 

T able 1 0B.2.2 Residential I ncandescent R eflector L amps: B ase C ase a nd S tandards C ase

( 65W B R Lamp S ubstitution S ensitivity) E fficacy D istributions f rom 2 012 t o 2 042

Year L evel T echnology P roportions o f R esidential I RL S hipped

B ase

C ase S tandards C ase

( 65W B R L amp S ubstitution

S ensitivity)

1 2 3

**65W B**  **R I**  **ncandescent 0**  **7 7**  **14**

**B aseline**  **H alogen**  **100**

**­ ­**  **­**

2012 **1 Improved** 

**H alogen**  **0 83** 

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **0 0**  **83**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **H IR**  **0 0**  **0 86** 

T otal 100 1 00 1 00 1 00

**65W B**  **R I**  **ncandescent 0**  **10 10**  **2 8** 

**B aseline**  **H alogen**  **100**

**­ ­**  **­**

2042 **1 Improved** 

**H alogen**  **0 90** 

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **0 0**  **90**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **H IR**  **0 0**  **0 72** 

T otal 100 1 00 1 00 1 00

**Table 1**  **0B.2.3 presents**  **t he**  **e fficacy**  **d istribution**  **o f**  **l amp**  **s hipments**  **f or**  **r esidential**  **I RL**  **u nder**  **t he** 

**1 0**  **p ercent**  **l umen**  **i ncrease**  **s ensitivity.** 

T able 1 0B.2.3 Residential I ncandescent R eflector L amps: B ase C ase a nd S tandards C ase

( 10 Pe rcent L umen I ncrease S ensitivity) E fficacy D istributions f rom 2 012 t o 2 042

Year L evel T echnology P roportions o f R esidential I RL S hipped

B ase

C ase S tandards C ase

( 10 p ercent L umen I ncrease

S ensitivity)

1 2 3

**Baseline H**  **alogen 100** 

**­ ­**  **­**

2012

t o

2 042 **1 Improved** 

**H alogen**  **0 100** 

**­ ­** 

**2 HIR**  **0 0**  **100**

**­**

**3 Improved**  **H IR**  **0 0**  **0 100** 

Total 100 100 100 100

**The c**  **alculation o**  **f t**  **he N**  **ES and**  **NP V**  **is d**  **ependent o**  **n t**  **he e**  **stimate o**  **f t**  **he a**  **verage e**  **fficacy**

**i n**  **t he**  **l amp**  **s tock.**  **Th e**  **f ollowing**  **f igures**  **p resent**  **t he**  **a verage**  **e fficacy**  **o f**  **t he**  **I RL**  **s tock**  **f or**  **e ach** 

**C SL**  **u nder**  **t he**  **t wo**  **s ensitivity**  **s cenarios.**  **Th e**  **a verage**  **e fficacy**  **n umbers**  **d o**  **n ot**  **i nclude**  **s tock** 

**10B­2 moving**  **t o**  **r eflector**  **C FL**  **o r**  **o ther**  **e merging**  **t echnologies**  **o vertime.**  **F igure**  **1 0B.2.1**  **and F**  **igure**

**1 0B.2.2**  **present t**  **he b**  **ase c**  **ase a**  **nd s**  **tandards c**  **ase a**  **verage e**  **fficacy f**  **orecasts o**  **f I**  **RL i**  **n t**  **he**

**c ommercial**  **a nd**  **r esidential**  **s ectors,**  **respectively, f**  **rom 2**  **012 t**  **o 2**  **042 u**  **nder t**  **he 6**  **5W B**  **R l**  **amp**

**s ubstitution**  **s ensitivity.**  **Th ough**  **6 5W**  **B R30**  **a nd**  **B R40**  **lamps a**  **re n**  **ot c**  **onsidered t**  **o b**  **e c**  **overed**

**I RL**  **p roduct,**  **t he**  **a verage**  **e fficacy**  **f orecasts**  **b elow**  **in clude**  **b oth**  **c overed**  **I RL**  **p roduct**  **a nd**  **l ower** 

**efficacy i**  **ncandescent 6**  **5W B**  **R30 l**  **amp.**

0 2 4 6 8 10 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 0AverageEfficacy(lm/W)

Base­Case E fficacy F orecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 040 2 045

Year

Figure 1 0B.2.1 Average E fficacy o f t he C ommercial I RL S tock ( 65W B R Lamp

S ubstitution S ensitivity)

**10B­3**0 2 4 6 8 10 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 0AverageEfficacy(lm/W)

Base­Case E fficacy F orecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 040 2 045

Year

Figure 1 0B.2.2 Average E fficacy o f t he R esidential I RL S tock ( 65W B R Lamp S ubstitution

S ensitivity)

**F igure**  **1 0B.2.2**  **presents t**  **he b**  **ase c**  **ase a**  **nd s**  **tandards c**  **ase e**  **fficacy d**  **istribution o**  **f t**  **he r**  **esidential**

**I RL**  **s tock**  **f rom**  **2 012**  **t o**  **2 042**  **u nder**  **t he**  **1 0**  **p ercent**  **l umen**  **i ncrease**  **s ensitivity.** 

**10B­4**0 2 4 6 8 10 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 0AverageEfficacy(lm/W)

Base­Case E fficacy F orecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 040 2 045

Year

Figure 1 0B.2.3 Average E fficacy o f t he R esidential I RL S tock ( 10 P ercent L umen I ncrease

S ensitivity)

**C hanges**  **i n**  **e fficacy**  **c an**  **l ead**  **t o**  **c hanges**  **i n**  **l umen**  **o utput.**  **F or**  **I RL,**  **t he**  **a verage**  **l umen**  **o utput** 

**n umbers**  **d o**  **n ot**  **i nclude**  **s tock**  **m oving**  **t o**  **r eflector**  **C FL**  **o r**  **o ther**  **e merging**  **t echnologies**  **o vertime.** 

**F igure**  **1 0B.2.4**  **presents t**  **he l**  **umens s**  **erviced i**  **n t**  **he b**  **ase c**  **ase a**  **nd s**  **tandards c**  **ase b**  **y t**  **he**

**c ommercial**  **I RL**  **s tock**  **u nder**  **t he**  **6 5W**  **B R**  **l amp**  **s ubstitution**  **s ensitivity**  **f rom**  **2 012**  **t o**  **2 042.** 

**F igure**  **1 0B.2.4**  **presents t**  **he l**  **umens s**  **erviced i**  **n t**  **he b**  **ase c**  **ase a**  **nd s**  **tandards c**  **ase b**  **y t**  **he**

**r esidential**  **I RL**  **s tock**  **u nder**  **t he**  **6 5W**  **B R**  **l amp**  **s ubstitution**  **s ensitivity**  **f rom**  **2 012**  **t o**  **2 042.** 

**10B­5**0.0E+00 1 .0E+10 2 .0E+10 3 .0E+10 4 .0E+10 5 .0E+10 6 .0E+10 7 .0E+10 8 .0E+10 9 .0E+10LumensServiced(lm)

Base­Case L umen F orecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 040 2 045

Year

Figure 1 0B.2.4 Commercial I RL L umens S erviced ( 65W B R Lamp S ubstitution S ensitivity)

3.5E+11

3 .0E+11LumensServiced(lm) 2.5E+11

2 .0E+11

1 .5E+11

1 .0E+11

5 .0E+10

0 .0E+00 Base­Case L umen F orecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 040 2 045

Year

Figure 1 0B.2.5 Residential I RL L umens S erviced ( 65W BR Lamp S ubstitution S ensitivity)

**10B­6 Figure**  **1 0B.2.6**  **presents t**  **he l**  **umens s**  **erviced i**  **n t**  **he b**  **ase c**  **ase a**  **nd s**  **tandards c**  **ase b**  **y t**  **he**

**r esidential**  **I RL**  **s tock**  **u nder**  **t he**  **1 0**  **p ercent**  **l umen**  **i ncrease**  **s ensitivity**  **f rom**  **2 012**  **t o**  **2 042.** 

0.0E+00 5 .0E+10 1 .0E+11 1 .5E+11 2 .0E+11 2 .5E+11 3 .0E+11 3 .5E+11LumensServiced(lm)

Base­Case L umen F orecast

CSL1

CSL2

CSL3

2010 2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 040 2 045



### Year

Figure 1 0B.2.6 Residential I RL L umens S erviced ( 10 P ercent L umen I ncrease S ensitivity)

1 0B.3 N ATIONAL E NERGY S AVINGS A ND N ET P RESENT V ALUE R ESULTS

**Th e**  **f ollowing**  **t ables**  **p rovide**  **NES results**  **f or**  **e ach**  **C SL**  **c onsidered**  **f or**  **i ncandescent** 

**r eflector**  **l amps**  **u nder**  **t he**  **6 5W**  **B R**  **l amp**  **s ubstitution**  **a nd**  **1 0**  **p ercent**  **l umen**  **i ncrease**  **s ensitivities.** 

**R esults**  **a re**  **c umulative**  **t o**  **2 042**  **a nd**  **a re**  **s hown**  **a s**  **p rimary**  **e nergy**  **s avings**  **i n**  **u nits**  **o f**  **q uads.**  **I n** 

**g eneral,**  **both o**  **f t**  **hese s**  **ensitivity s**  **cenarios r**  **eflect l**  **ower e**  **nergy s**  **avings t**  **han t**  **he m**  **ain s**  **hipment**

**s cenario,**  **a s**  **b oth**  **s ensitivities**  **i ncorporate**  **h igher­wattage**  **o r**  **s ame­wattage**  **l amp**  **d esigns.**  **I n** 

**c ontrast,**  **t he**  **m ain**  **s hipment**  **s cenario**  **u tilizes**  **r educed­wattage**  **l amp**  **d esigns.** 

**10B­7**Table 1 0B.3.1 Cumulative N ational E nergy S avings f or C ommercial I RL ( 65W B R Lamp

S ubstitution S ensitivity) ( 2012­2042) ( quads)

Candidate S tandard

L evel N ES

q uads

U ndiscounted D iscounted a t 7 % D iscounted a t 3 %

**1 0.36**  **0 .12**  **0 .21** 

**2 0.70**  **0 .23**  **0 .41** 

**3 0.85**  **0 .27**  **0 .50** 

Table 1 0B.3.2 Cumulative N ational E nergy S avings f or R esidential I RL ( 65W B R Lamp

S ubstitution S ensitivity) ( 2012­2042) ( quads)

Candidate S tandard

L evel N ES

q uads

U ndiscounted D iscounted a t 7 % D iscounted a t 3 %

**1 0.51**  **0 .15**  **0 .29** 

**2 0.92**  **0 .27**  **0 .52** 

**3 1.04**  **0 .30**  **0 .59** 

Table 1 0B.3.3 Cumulative N ational E nergy S avings f or R esidential I RL ( 10 P ercent

L umen I ncrease S ensitivity) ( 2012­2042) ( quads)

Candidate S tandard

L evel N ES

q uads

U ndiscounted D iscounted a t 7 % D iscounted a t 3 %

**1 0.47**  **0 .14**  **0 .26** 

**2 0.72**  **0 .21**  **0 .41** 

**3 1.07**  **0 .31**  **0 .60** 

**The f**  **ollowing t**  **ables p**  **rovides NP**  **V results**  **f or**  **t he**  **c andidate**  **s tandards**  **l evels**  **c onsidered** 

**f or**  **i ncandescent**  **r eflector**  **l amps**  **u nder**  **t he**  **6 5W**  **B R**  **la mp**  **s ubstitution**  **a nd**  **1 0**  **p ercent**  **l umen** 

**i ncrease**  **s ensitivities.**  **R esults**  **a re**  **c umulative**  **a nd**  **a re**  **s hown**  **a s**  **t he**  **d iscounted**  **v alue**  **o f**  **t hese** 

**s avings**  **i n**  **d ollar**  **t erms.** 

**10B­8**Table 1 0B.3.4 Cumulative N PV Results f or C ommercial I RL ( 65W B R Lamp S ubstitution

S ensitivity) ( billion 2 006$)

Candidate S tandard

L evel N PV

b illion 2 006$

D iscounted a t 7 % D iscounted a t 3 %

**1 0.74**  **1 .35** 

**2 1.43**  **2 .64** 

**3 2.55**  **4 .75** 

Table 1 0B.3.5 Cumulative N PV Results f or R esidential I RL ( 65W B R L amp S ubstitution

S ensitivity) ( billion 2 006$)

Candidate S tandard

L evel N PV

b illion 2 006$

D iscounted a t 7 % D iscounted a t 3 %

**1 1.13**  **2 .29** 

**2 2.21**  **4 .41** 

**3 3.07**  **6 .15** 

Table 1 0B.3.6 Cumulative N PV Results f or R esidential I RL ( 10 P ercent L umen I ncrease

S ensitivity) ( billion 2 006$)

Candidate S tandard

L evel N PV

b illion 2 006$

D iscounted a t 7 % D iscounted a t 3 %

**1 0.82**  **1 .73** 

**2 1.44**  **2 .96** 

**3 2.76**  **5 .64** 

**1 0B­9**