### CHAPTER 12. LIFE-CYCLE CO ST SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

12.1 INTRODUCTION

............................................................................................................ 12 -1 12.2 SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS

............................................................................................... 12-1 12.2.1 CRE Customer Sub-Group

................................................................................ 12-1 12.2.2 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Results for Small Business Sub-Group

.. 12-5 REFERENCES

..................................................................................................................... ... 12-10

LIST OF TABLES Table 12.2.1 Census Data for Supermarke t and Other Grocery Business Class by Number of Establishments per Firm

.................................................................. 12-2 Table 12.2.2 Census Data for Convenience Store Business Class by Number of Establishments per Firm

.................................................................................... 12-3 Table 12.2.3 Census Data for Convenience Stor e with Gasoline Station Business Class by Number of Establishments per Firm

............................................................. 12-4 Table 12.2.4 Mean LCC Savings by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub-Group and All Business Types (2007$)*

.................................... 12-6 Table 12.2.5 Percentage of Customers Show ing Positive Life-Cycle Cost Savings by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub-Group and All Business Types (2007$)*

...................................................................... 12-7 Table 12.2.6 Mean Payback Period by Equipm ent Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub-Group and A ll Business Types (2007$)*

.......................... 12-8 Table 12.2.7 Percentage of Customers Showi ng PBP Less Than 3 Years, by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub-Group and All Business Types*

................................................................................................. 12-9

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### CHAPTER 12. LIFE-CYCLE CO ST SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS 12.1 INTRODUCTION The life-cycle cost (LCC) sub-group analys is evaluates impacts on any identifiable groups of customers of commercial refr igeration equipment (CRE) who may be disproportionately affected by am ended energy conservation standards. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) accomplished this, in part, by anal yzing the LCC and payback period (PBP) for those CRE customers who fall in to any specific sub-groups. DOE used the LCC spreadsheet model to estimate the impact on CRE sub-groups. DOE developed this LCC spreadsheet model to c onduct the LCC and PBP analyses for both CRE customers, as described in Chapter 8, Life-C ycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses. The standard LCC and PBP analyses (see Chapter 8) for CRE includes various types of food-sales businesses that use commercial refrigeration equipment. The LCC spreadsheet model allows for the identification of certain sub- groups of businesses, which can then be analyzed by sampling only that sub-group. Chapter 8 explains in detail the inputs to the LCC spreadsheet model used in determining the LCC and PBP. The LCC sp readsheet model is accessi ble over the internet ( http://www1.eere.energy.gov/build ings/appliance_standards/comme rcial/refrigeration_equipme nt.html ). 12.2 SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS 12.2.1 CRE Customer Sub-Group DOE identified small businesses as a sub-group that possibly could be disproportionately affected by the amended energy conservation sta ndard for CRE units. DOE was concerned that increases in the purchase price of commercial refrigeration equipment could have negative impacts on small businesses (i.e., those with low annual revenues). To identify small businesses, DOE used size standards from the Small Busi ness Administration (SBA) to define which business entities are considered to be small. The SBA establis hed size standards for types of economic activity, or industry, under the Nort h American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 1 

### The SBA defines a small business from a customer perspective by either its annual receipts (i.e., revenues) or its number of employees. Assembly, education, food services, office, and retail businesses are generally defined to be small if annual receipts are $6 million or less. In the case of the retail food sales business, the SB A defines as small businesses supermarkets and other grocery stores and convenien ce stores with less than $25 milli on in total annual sales. For specialty stores (e.g., meat markets, bakeries, fish and seafood markets) and beer, wine and liquor stores, this limit is set at less than $6.5 million in annual sales. According to the Food Marketing Institute, the average supermarket ha d sales of approximately $15 million in 2006, so a small business could be represented as ownership of one or two average-size supermarkets or a chain of smaller grocery or convenience stores. The Food Marketing Institute defines independent stores as a retailer with 1 to 10 stores, so most small supermarkets or grocery businesse s as defined by SBA would be classified as

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### independent grocery stores by the industry as oppos ed to being chain stores. A somewhat larger chain of convenience stores could still be classified as a small business. In examining the total CRE sales to entities th at might be considered as small businesses, DOE analyzed detailed statistical data from the 2002 CBECS 2 

### for the three of the four business types identified in this analysis : (1) supermarkets and grocery stores, (2) convenience stores (including specialty food stores), and (3) conveni ence stores without gasoline stations. Because of the large chain presence as well as the need for larger stores to deal with merchandise, multiline line retailers were presumed to not fall into the small business category. The 2002 census examines sales and total numbe r of establishments for retail firms and provides this information categorized by number of sales establishments per firm, as shown in Table 12.2.1 through Table 12.2.3. From the census data , it is possible to identify the number of firms in each category, the number of establishmen ts in each category, total employment in each category, and the total sales in each category. It is then possible to develop average statistics for each category in terms of number of establishmen ts per firm, total sales per establishment, and total sales per firm. From the latter, one can esti mate whether a category, in terms of number of establishments per firm, is composed largely fr om firms that might be classified as small businesses. This is first shown in Table 12.2.1, fo r supermarket and other grocery firms. If the average annual sales per firm in a category ar e substantially less than $25 million, the category as a whole was considered likely composed of sm all businesses. If the average annual sales per firm are substantially greater than $25 milli on, the category as a whole was unlikely to be composed of small business. When the average sa les per firm were close to the threshold, it was assumed that approximately 50 percent woul d likely be considered small businesses. Table 12.2.1 Census Data for Supermarket and Other Grocery Business Class by Number of Establishments per FirmSupermarkets & other grocery (except convenience) stores Average Avg. Firm is Number of Total Establishments Sales per Sales per Small

Firms Employment per Firm Establishment Firm Business All firms 42,318 2,437,750 1.6 5975 9340 TRUE Single unit firms 39,912 461,199 1.0 1487 1487 TRUE Multiunit firms 2,406 1,976,551 10.9 12802 139610 FALSE Firms with 1 establishment 792 23,775 1.0 3465 3465 TRUE Firms with 2 establishments 695 55,560 2.0 5071 10142 TRUE Firms with 3 or 4 establishments 420 66,531 3.3 6350 21122 TRUE for ~50% Firms with 5 to 9 establishments 268 89,434 6.5 7925 51512 FALSE Firms with 10 to 24 establishments 130 133,065 14.9 10592 158221 FALSE Firms with 25 to 49 establishments 48 104,431 34.2 10262 351054 FALSE Firms with 50 to 99 establishments 16 90,809 72.8 12445 905409 FALSE Firms with 100 establishments or more 37 1,412,946 437.0 15556 6797970 FALSE Fraction of establishments considered small business 0.647
Fraction of firms classed as small business 0.983 Fraction of employment in small businesses 0.235
Fraction of sales in small businesses 0.186

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### These same data are tabulated for convenience stores (including spec ialty food stores and beer, wine, and liquor stores as was done in th e LCC analysis). Because the size standards are different for convenience stores versus specialty food and beer , wine, and liquor stores, the results are first shown separately, and then aggregated in Table 12.2.2. Table 12.2.2 Census Data for Convenien ce Store Business Class by Number of Establishments per Firm

Number of

Firms Total Employment Average Establishments per Firm Sales per Establishment Sales per Firm Avg. Firm is Small BusinessConvenience stores All firms 25,527 Single-unit firms 24,854 Multiunit firms 673 Firms with 1 establishment 340 Firms with 2 establishments 161 Firms with 3 or 4 establishments 86 Firms with 5 to 9 establishments 39 Firms with 10 to 24 establishments 19 138,316 93,482 44,834

3,010 2,263 2,352 2,331 2,132 1.1 1.0 6.5 1.0 2.0 3.2 6.5 13.8 698 570 1423 1015 1010 1186 1112 1118 798 570 9217 1015 2019 3846 7214 15415 TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUESpecialty food stores &Beer Wine and Liquor Stores Firms with 25 to 49 establishments 12 Firms with 50 to 99 establishments 10 Firms with 100 establishments or more 6 All firms 45,085 Single-unit firms 43,131 Multiunit firms 1,954 Firms with 1 establishment 976 Firms with 2 establishments 485 Firms with 3 or 4 establishments 266 Firms with 5 to 9 establishments 127

Firms with 10 to 24 establishments 59 Firms with 25 to 49 establishments 19 3,461 5,643 23,642 262,587 193,189 69,398

8,604 9,773 6,618 5,773

6,694 4,786 38.9 70.4 288.5

1.2 1.0 5.3 1.0 2.0 3.3 6.3

15.2 35.7 914 1231 1926 773 693 1109 1111 1581 1259 1155

1635 1374 35579 86670 555755 917 693 5853 1111 3162 4157 7332

24910 49085 FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE for ~ 45%* FALSE FALSE Firms with 50 to 99 establishments 11 Firms with 100 establishments or more 11 Fraction of establishments considered small business Fraction of firms classed as small business Fraction of employment in small businesses
Fraction of sales 5,767 21,383 72.4 391.5 1090 815 78873 319255 FALSE FALSE 0.879 0.997 0.815
0.804

* True for specialty food stor es but false for liquor stores

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### Finally, the data are tabulated for combinati on gasoline stations with convenience stores in Table 12.2.3. Table 12.2.3 Census Data for Convenience Stor e with Gasoline Station Business Class by Number of Establishments per FirmGasoline stations with convenience stores Avg. Average Firm is Number of Total Establishments Sales per Sales per Small

Firms Employment per Firm Establishment Firm Business All firms 44,361 722,047 2.1 1993 4209 TRUE Single-unit firms 39,457 255,812 1.0 1501 1501 TRUE Multiunit firms 4,904 466,235 11.1 2351 25998 FALSE Firms with 1 establishment 1,418 14,582 1.0 2062 2062 TRUE Firms with 2 establishments 1,220 23,073 2.0 2058 4117 TRUE Firms with 3 or 4 establishments 849 26,686 3.4 2126 7196 TRUE Firms with 5 to 9 establishments 646 33,665 6.4 1966 12648 TRUE Firms with 10 to 24 establishments 485 58,089 14.8 1991 29441 FALSE Firms with 25 to 49 establishments 163 43,196 34.1 2061 70261 FALSE Firms with 50 to 99 establishments 57 30,103 68.4 2228 152453 FALSE Firms with 100 establishments or more 66 236,841 404.8 2652 1073415 FALSE Fraction of establishments considered small business 0.576 Fraction of firms classed as sm all business 0.988 Fraction of employment in small businesses 0.530
Fraction of sales 0.475 

### What is first clear from examining these data is that the majority of firms in each business class are considered small businesses. This is true for commercial businesses in the United States at large. According to the SBA, 99 percent of all U.S. bus inesses fall under the SBA definition of small business. 3 

### However, the data in Table 12.2 .1 show that less than 20 percent of the sales and less than 24 pe rcent of the employment in the supermarket/grocery business class occurs in small businesses. The financia l statistics of the cla ss are generally not well characterized by small businesses. This is cont rasted with convenience stores shown in Table 12.2.2. In the convenience store business class, approximately 80 percent of the sales and 82 percent of the employment occurs in small businesses. Convenience stores with gasoline stations, shown in Table 12.2.3, are more mixed with slightly less than 50 percent of the sales and slightly more than 50 percent of employment occurring in entities fi tting the definition of small businesses. In examining the four business classes consider ed in the LCC analysis in Chapter 8, DOE considered which business class would be subs tantially considered representative of small businesses and with the potential to be adversely affected unde r this rulemaking. DOE does not have sufficient information to correlate annual revenues or the likelihood of a purchaser being a small business with the costs of more efficien t CRE units to identify the sub-group of small businesses in the building sample. However, DOE believes that the results from the LCC sub-group analysis provide an adequate indi cation of whether the small business sub-group would be disproportionately advantaged or di sadvantaged by a proposed standard. Convenience

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### stores in particular appear be much more representative of small businesses overall. Convenience stores and specialty stores, such as meat markets and li quor stores, pay higher electricity prices compared to the other business classes, but use similar amounts of electricity for the same type of equipment. Convenience st ores were estimated to typically face somewhat higher costs of capital (i.e., a difference estimated in Chapte r 8 as 250 basis points, or 2.5 percent). In addition, for the s ub-group analysis, it was assumed th at convenience stores that are not represented by a national chain have no acce ss to national accounts and, therefore, face higher wholesale and retail markups for initial equipment purchases, and, therefore, experience higher equipment prices. This is somewhat o ffset by the likelihood that they will keep the equipment for longer periods, resulting in longe r average equipment lifetimes. DOE believes that this trend is likely common in small grocery stores as well. Overa ll, however, the lower the cost of electricity and the higher the cost of capita l, the more likely it is that an entity would be disadvantaged by the requirement to purchase more efficient CRE units. Based on the analysis, DOE has used data fo r convenience stores as a representative proxy for small business CRE purchasers, but with the added assumption of no access to national account purchasing, resulting in higher equipmen t costs. This has been defined as the representative sub-group for th e LCC sub-group analysis. With the exception of the equipment cost, all other inputs to the LCC and PBP spreadsheet model for the small business sub-group were the same as for convenience stores consider ed in the rulemaking (e.g., total installed costs, repair costs, maintenance costs, discount rates). 12.2.2 Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Results for Small Business Sub-Group Table 12.2.4 summarizes the LCC savings resu lts for the small business sub-group for each of the CRE equipment classes, and compares them to the results for the total sample of business types used in the overall LCC analysis. Table 12.2.5 compares the percentages of cu stomers showing LCC savings for the two groups of businesses—namely, the small business sub-group and the total sample of all business types considered for this CRE rulemaking. Si milarly, Table 12.2.6 summarizes the mean PBP results for the two groups, and Table 12.2.7 co mpares the percentage s of the two groups experiencing payback periods of less than 3 year s. The baseline in all cases is the baseline efficiency level used in the life-cycle cost anal ysis (level 1). Results are provided by TSL for each of the 15 CRE equipment classes. As is evident from the LCC and PBP results, the overall impact of a potentially higher CRE efficien cy level on the small business sub-group is qualitatively similar to the impact on the full sample of business types that use CRE units covered by this rulemaking. The LCC savings are somewhat higher for the small business sub-group, with the impacts of hi gher discount rates on first cost offset by the higher cost of energy and the increased lifetime compared to the overall population. The maximum LCC savings are obtained at TSL 3 in all equipment classes but VCT. SC.I, and HCT.SC.I, where it is TSL 4 for the small business sub-group. Based on this analysis, as a recognizable sub-group, small businesses would expect no additional negative impact from increased CRE efficiency levels compared with the full sample of CRE customers considered in the rulemaking.

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### Table 12.2.4 Mean LCC Savings by Equipment Cl ass and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub-Group and All Business Types (2007$)*

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL4 TSL5

VOP.RC.M

VOP.RC.L

VOP.SC.M

VCT.RC.M

VCT.RC.L

VCT.SC.I

VCS.SC.I

SVO.RC.M

SVO.SC.M

SOC.RC.M

HZO.RC.M

HZO.RC.L

HZO.SC.M

HZO.SC.L

HCT.SC.I Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Buildings Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types $1,746 $1,344 $4,534 $3,501 $1,094 $842 $416 $320 $1,001

$762 $3,811 $2,941

$902 $704 $1,177

$907 $752 $583 $521 $405 $538 $419 $875 $668 $440 $344 $857 $670 $272 $211 $1,764 $1,308 $5,882 $4,500 $1,624 $1,209

$868 $657 $5,639 $4,137 $6,451 $4,893 $1,703 $1,321 $1,209

$896 $1,138

$853 $1,106

$851 $1,152

$887 $1,383 $1,047

$803 $615 $1,574 $1,215 $1,022

$775 $2,443 $1,788 $6,064 $4,610 $2,145 $1,549 $3,484 $2,375 $7,454 $5,450 $6,944 $5,234 $2,314 $1,757 $1,738 $1,274 $1,565 $1,136 $1,290

$945 $1,397 $1,063 $1,466 $1,102 $1,156

$861 $2,364 $1,784 $1,055

$797 $2,443 ($3,463) $1,788 ($3,959) $5,549 $5,549 $3,938 $3,938 $2,145 $131 $1,549 ($451) $3,458 $3,458 $2,339 $2,339 $7,447 $7,447 $5,419 $5,419 $6,949 $6,949 $5,217 $5,217 $2,314 $2,314 $1,757 $1,757 $1,738 ($2,637) $1,274 ($2,974) $1,565 $61 $1,136 ($355) $1,290 ($948)

$945 ($1,458) $1,383 $1,383 $1,040 $1,040 $1,466 $1,466 $1,102 $1,102 $1,129 $1,129

$826 $826 $2,352 $2,352 $1,761 $1,761 $1,057 $1,057

$785 $785

* Energy savings calculated compared to baseline. Values in parentheses stand for negative LCC savings

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### Table 12.2.5 Percentage of Customers Showing Positive Life-Cycle Cost Savings by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub-Group and All Business Types (2007$)*

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL4 TSL5

VOP.RC.M

VOP.RC.L

VOP.SC.M

VCT.RC.M

VCT.RC.L

VCT.SC.I

VCS.SC.I

SVO.RC.M

SVO.SC.M

SOC.RC.M

HZO.RC.M

HZO.RC.L

HZO.SC.M

HZO.SC.L

HCT.SC.I Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Buildings Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types 35 36 31 31 33 33 19 20 38 38 44 45 23 24 34 35 32 32 17 18 19 20 40 41 26 27 26 27 34 35 53 54 47 48 65 65 39 40 56 57 57 59 50 50 52 53 63 64 35 36 40 40 61 61 54 55 54 54 52 53 70 71 77 77 79 79 83 83 79 80 79 80 88 89 69 70 77 78 71 71 61 61 81 81 79 79 79 79 69 70 70 1 71 0 92 92 92 92 79 40 79 30 91 91 92 92 90 90 90 90 90 90 91 91 88 88 89 89 69 1 70 0 77 40 78 29 71 26 71 5 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 86 86 86 86

* Compared with purchase of a baseline level equipment

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### Table 12.2.6 Mean Payback Period by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub-Group and All Business Types (2007$)*

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL4 TSL5

0.7 1.2 1.8 1.8 52.0 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.0 138.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 2.5 2.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 2.8 2.8 0.7 1.4 2.2 2.2 9.5 0.8 1.6 2.4 2.4 11.2 0.7 1.1 3.5 3.6 3.6 0.8 1.3 3.8 3.9 3.9 1.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.7 106.7 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 196.8 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.1 9.7 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.3 11.5 0.5 0.7 1.6 1.6 15.6 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.7 19.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.3 2.3 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.7 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.7 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.9 VOP.RC.M

VOP.RC.L

VOP.SC.M

VCT.RC.M

VCT.RC.L

VCT.SC.I

VCS.SC.I

SVO.RC.M

SVO.SC.M

SOC.RC.M

HZO.RC.M

HZO.RC.L

HZO.SC.M

HZO.RC.L

HCT.SC.I Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Buildings Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types *Compared to purchase of baseline equipment

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### Table 12.2.7 Percentage of Customers Showing PBP Less Than 3 Years, by Equipment Class and Trial Standard Level, Small Business Sub-Group and All Business Types*

TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL4 TSL5 100% 100% 98% 98% NA 100% 100% 93% 93% 0% 100% 100% 100% 74% 74% 100% 100% 100% 63% 63% 100% 100% 87% 87% 0% 100% 100% 77% 77% 0% 100% 100% 33% 33% 33% 100% 100% 29% 19% 19% 100% 88% 83% 79% 79% 100% 83% 74% 71% 71% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 98% NA 100% 100% 94% 94% 0% 100% 100% 93% 93% 0% 100% 100% 83% 83% 0% 100% 100% 99% 99% NA 100% 100% 99% 99% NA 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 95% 100% 100% 99% 86% 86% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% VOP.RC.M

VOP.RC.L

VOP.SC.M

VCT.RC.M

VCT.RC.L

VCT.SC.I

VCS.SC.I

SVO.RC.M

SVO.SC.M

SOC.RC.M

HZO.RC.M

HZO.RC.L

HZO.SC.M

HZO.RC.L

HCT.SC.I Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Buildings Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types Small Business All Business Types *Compared to purchase of baseli ne equipment. A value of zero means less than 0.5 percent. NA means that a percentage with a payback period of less than 3 years could not be computed because there were no instances in which payback period was less than 3 years.

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### REFERENCES

1. Title 13, Code of Federal Regulations, Ch apter I–Small Business Administration, Part 121– Small Business Administration, Subpart A–Size Eligibility Provisions and Standards, May 4, 2005.

2. U.S. CENSUS. 2002. U.S. Census Bureau Amer ican Fact Finder, Sect or 44: Retail Trade: Subject Series–Estab & Firm Size: Single Un it and Multiunit Firms for the United States: 2002. Accessed Dec 2007. http://factfinder.census.gov/ servlet/IBQTable?_bm=y &

- ds_name=EC0244SSSZ3&-_skip=600&-geo _id=&-parsed=true&-_lang=en&

- fds_name=EC0200A1

3. SBA. 2007. The Small Business Economy fo r Data Year 2006, Report to the President. U.S. Small Business Administration. U.S. G overnment Printing Office, Washington, D.C. < http://www.sba.gov/advo/research/sb_econ2007.pdf >

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