January 2024
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

January 2024

Table of Contents

Inside this Month’s Global Market Analysis Report... ........................................................................... 1

Highlights............................................................................................................................................. 2

1 US Aggregate and Global Indices.............................................................................................. 4

1.1 Bloomberg US Aggregate and Global Indices ........................................................................ 4

2 Sovereign Debt Product Performance Comparisons................................................................. 5

2.1 Global 10-Year Treasury Yields (Unhedged) .......................................................................... 5

2.2 U.S. Treasury Hedged Yields................................................................................................... 6

SECONDARY MORTGAGE MARKET ....................................................................................................... 7

3 Fixed Income Product Performance Comparisons.................................................................... 7

3.1 Ginnie Mae Yields – USD........................................................................................................ 7

3.2 Ginnie Mae Hedged Yields..................................................................................................... 8

3.3 Ginnie Mae Yield Spreads – Intermediate Credit................................................................... 9

3.4 Global Treasury Yield Per Duration...................................................................................... 10

4 Prepayments......................................................................................................................... 11

4.1 Aggregate Prepayments (CPR)............................................................................................. 11

4.2 Involuntary Prepayments (CDR)........................................................................................... 12

4.3 Voluntary Prepayment Rates (CRR) ..................................................................................... 13

5 Single-Family MBS Pass-Through Issuance .............................................................................

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A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page i

Table of Contents

Inside this Month’s Global Market Analysis Report 1

Highlights 2

1 US Aggregate and Global Indices 4

1.1 Bloomberg US Aggregate and Global Indices 4

2 Sovereign Debt Product Performance Comparisons 5

2.1 Global 10-Year Treasury Yields (Unhedged) 5

2.2 U.S. Treasury Hedged Yields................................ 6

SECONDARY MORTGAGE MARKET 7

3 Fixed Income Product Performance Comparisons 7

3.1 Ginnie Mae Yields – USD 7

3.2 Ginnie Mae Hedged Yields 8

3.3 Ginnie Mae Yield Spreads – Intermediate Credit 9

3.4 Global Treasury Yield Per Duration 10

4 Prepayments 11

4.1 Aggregate Prepayments (CPR) 11

4.2 Involuntary Prepayments (CDR) 12

4.3 Voluntary Prepayment Rates (CRR) 13

5 Single-Family MBS Pass-Through Issuance 14

5.1 Gross Issuance of Agency MBS 14

5.2 Net Issuance of Agency MBS 16

5.3 Monthly Issuance Breakdown 18

5.4 Percent Refi at Issuance – Single-Family 19

6 Agency Single-Family MBS Outstanding 20

6.1 Outstanding Single-Family Agency MBS 20

6.2 Origination Volume and Share Over Time 21

6.3 Agency Issuance and Agency Outstanding by State 22

6.4 Outstanding Ginnie Mae MBS Volume by Coupon and Vintage Over Time 23

7 Agency REMIC Securities 24

7.1 Monthly REMIC Demand for Ginnie Mae MBS 24

7.2 REMIC Market Snapshot 25

8 MBS Ownership 26

8.1 Commercial Bank Holdings of Agency MBS 26

8.2 Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 27
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

January 2024

8.3 SOMA Holdings .................................................................................................................... 29

8.4 Foreign Ownership of MBS .................................................................................................. 31

8.5 Foreign Ownership of Agency Debt and Agency MBS ......................................................... 32

9 Fixed Income Liquidity Indicators........................................................................................... 33

PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET.......................................................................................................... 34

10 Agency Credit Breakdown...................................................................................................... 34

10.1 Credit Scores ........................................................................................................................ 34

10.2 Loan-to-Value (LTV).............................................................................................................. 36

10.3 Debt-to-Income (DTI) ........................................................................................................... 38

10.4 High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. GSEs................................................................................... 40

10.5 Serious Delinquency Rates................................................................................................... 41

10.6 Credit Box............................................................................................................................. 42

10.7 Credit Box: Historical............................................................................................................ 44

11 Forbearance Trends............................................................................................................... 46

12 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights.................................................................. 47

13 Agency Nonbank Originators................................................................................................. 48

14 Bank vs. Nonbank Originators Historical Credit Box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE ............................... 50

14.1.1 (FICO, LTV, DTI) ....................................................................................................... 50

15 Environmental, Social, and Governance................................................................................. 54

15.1 Environmental, Social, and Governance: A Summary..........................................................

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A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page ii

8.3 SOMA Holdings 29

8.4 Foreign Ownership of MBS 31

8.5 Foreign Ownership of Agency Debt and Agency MBS 32

9 Fixed Income Liquidity Indicators 33

PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET 34

10 Agency Credit Breakdown 34

10.1 Credit Scores 34

10.2 Loan-to-Value (LTV) 36

10.3 Debt-to-Income (DTI) 38

10.4 High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. GSEs 40

10.5 Serious Delinquency Rates 41

10.6 Credit Box 42

10.7 Credit Box: Historical 44

11 Forbearance Trends 46

12 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 47

13 Agency Nonbank Originators 48

14 Bank vs. Nonbank Originators Historical Credit Box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE 50

14.1.1 (FICO, LTV, DTI) 50

15 Environmental, Social, and Governance 54

15.1 Environmental, Social, and Governance: A Summary 54

15.2 Environmental 55

15.3 Social 55

15.3.1 Low-to-Moderate Income Borrowers 56

15.3.2 Purchase and Refinance Origination by Income Bracket 57

U.S. HOUSING MARKET 58

16 Housing Affordability 58

16.1 Housing Affordability – Home Price Appreciation 58

16.2 Housing Affordability – Inflation, Wages, and the Price of Real Estate 59

16.2.1 Housing Affordability – Affordability Index 60

16.2.2 Housing Affordability – Mortgage Rate Trends 61

16.3 Housing Inventory 62

16.4 Size and Value of the U.S. Housing Market 64

17 Disclosure 65
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Inside This Month’s Global Market Analysis Report

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 1

Inside this Month’s Global Market Analysis Report...

In this month’s edition, the Highlights section discusses where the Agency MBS market stands today 

and expectations for 2024 through the lens of some of the largest participants in global capital 

markets.

Notable insights in this month’s Global Market Analysis Report include the following:

• The new Housing Affordability - Affordability Index section shows how homebuyer

affordability has declined for families purchasing median priced homes. Accordingly, the new

homebuyer monthly payment figure shows how monthly payments have increased for firsttime homebuyers. 

• New figures in the Housing Inventory section show trends in Single-Family and Multifamily

construction metrics.

• The Fixed Income Product Performance Comparisons section shows that Ginnie Mae MBS 

continue to offer attractive yields relative to sovereigns with comparable durations globally.

• The Single-Family MBS Pass-Through Issuance section captures the dominant role

government lending/mortgage insurance programs are playing in the post-pandemic

mortgage market. Gross and net issuance of Single-Family Ginnie Mae pass-throughs exceeds

that of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

• The SOMA Holdings section captures FED Chair Jerome Powell’s comments regarding the

FED’s decision to keep the policy rate unchanged and includes the composition of the FED’s

Agency MBS portfolio run-off.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Highlights

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets ffice of Capital Markets Page 2

Highlights

At the outset of 2024, the U.S. economy and financial markets quieted largely expected recessionary

fears in 2023 and begin the year with an optimistic backdrop. To begin the year, bullish sentiment

reigns as equities trade near all-time highs, treasury yields trade well-off cycle highs, mortgage rates

rally in line with treasuries, and the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates a handful of times

in the coming year. These factors create a much better backdrop compared to where markets began

2023, when inflation remained substantially higher than the Fed’s inflation target, the Fed was

committed to increasing rates to combat sticky inflationary pressures, and treasury yields were set

to climb higher. In this month’s edition, Highlightsreviews where Agency MBS markets stand entering 

2024 and where Agency MBS markets are expected to go, a view through the lens of some of the

largest participants in global capital markets including Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan.

2024 Agency MBS Supply Outlook:

- Refinances are expected to remain subdued due to the average mortgage rate of existing

homeowners with a mortgage sits at 3.74% as of December 1, 20231

. However, any marginal

decrease in primary mortgage rates should lead to increased refinance activity.

- 97% of the mortgage market is out of the money from a refinance perspective1

. The majority

of supply expected over the coming year is forecasted to come via new home sales.

- Existing home sales have fallen near multi-decade lows due to unaffordability and rising

mortgage rates.

- The combination of limited refinances and reduced existing home sales will keep new

mortgage loan origination and supply muted in 2024. Outsized demand for mortgage-backed

securities compared with supply can lead to outperformance in the secondary market for

Agency MBS.

- Prospective home buyers are expected to continue down the new construction path as

borrowers continue to take advantage of mortgage rate buy-downs and price cuts as home

builders incentivize sales2

.

Figure 1. Refinance Activity vs. 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate3

1 Source: 2024 Outlooks (morganstanley.com)

2 Source: Wells Fargo - 2024 Annual Outlook (bluematrix.com)

3 Source: JPM AM Market Insights (jpmorgan.com)
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Highlights

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets ffice of Capital Markets Page 3

2024 Monetary Policy Outlook:

- The Fed is expected to cut rates in 2024 according to the Fed’s most recent Statement of

Economic Projections (SEP) which forecasts 3 rate cuts4

. However, markets have priced in as 

many as 7 rate cuts. Mortgage rates can be expected to end the year substantially lower if

these rate cuts come to fruition.

- If the economy begins to slow at a dramatic pace, the pace of Quantitative Tightening (QT),

which allows the Fed to let maturing securities roll off its balance sheet resulting in an

increased supply of securities to the broader market, is an action the Fed may consider. If so, 

that would certainly be a positive tailwind for Agency MBS.

- In the bear case scenario for 2024, the Fed drastically cuts rates due to deflationary pressures

and increased unemployment which would likely result in a major rally in treasury yields and

mortgage rates. The resulting rally in mortgage rates could lead to a substantial pickup in

refinance activity and flood the mortgage market with new supply. However, this scenario is 

not the base case scenario.

2024 Secondary Agency MBS Market Outlook:

- Economic slowdown expected to gain steam in 2024, possibly leading to increased mortgage

defaults1

. Mortgage defaults are paid out at par to mortgage investors and can therefore be 

viewed as a type of prepayment. Increased prepayment speeds via mortgage defaults are a

tailwind for Agency MBS investors, especially for investors buying discount/low-coupon MBS 

securities.

- Agency MBS spreads sit over 100 basis points wider than their 2021 lows1

. Spreads remain

wide relative to other fixed income sectors, such as investment grade corporate bonds.

- Any risk-off/bear scenario would also be beneficial for Agency MBS spreads as investors reallocate from equities to Treasuries and risk-free adjacent securities.

- Asset managers are expected to shift from extension protection to call protection in 2024 as

market participants widely expect that mortgage rates have already reached their peaks for 

the cycle1

. 

Agency MBS are widely expected to outperform this year in a multitude of different scenarios.

However, the base case scenario heading into the new year is for the economy to continue to slow,

inflation to continue its trend towards the Fed’s target, and for the Fed to slowly decrease its policy

rate in an effort to keep real rates in line with a historically restrictive range. All scenarios despite a

sharp increase in inflation which would coincide with a more restrictive stance from the Fed and

therefore higher rates should be beneficial for Agency MBS in the coming year.

4 Source: Summary of Economic Projections, December 13, 2023 (federalreserve.gov)
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Aggregate Global Indices

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets ffice of Capital Markets Page 4

1 US AGGREGATE AND GLOBAL INDICES

1.1 Bloomberg US Aggregate and Global Indices

At month-end December, U.S. Treasuries contributed 41.4% to the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index,

down approximately 0.1% from the prior month. U.S. MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie

Mac) contributed 26.5%, up 0.1% from the month prior. For the U.S. Aggregate Index, all other 

changes to the index components were no larger than 0.1%.

Figure 2. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index

In the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index by Country, the U.S. share of fixed income remained the

largest share of total outstanding issuance, representing 40.0% of the total Bloomberg Global

Aggregate Index, down 0.2% from the prior month. Japan’s share of fixed income was the second 

largest at 11.3%, increasing approximately 0.2% from the prior month. All other countries remained

stable compared to the prior month with no changes larger than 0.1%.

Figure 3. Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index by Country

Source: Bloomberg [both charts]. Note: Data as of December 2023. Figures in charts may not add to 100% due to rounding.

41%

27%

15%

8%

2%

2% 2% 1%1% 1% 0% Treasury - 41.4%

MBS Passthrough - 26.5%

Industrial - 14.6%

Financial Institutions - 8.3%

Utility - 2.2%

Agency - 1.7%

CMBS - 1.7%

Supranational - 1.3%

Sovereign - 1.0%

Local Authority - 0.8%

ABS - 0.5%

40.0%

5.3% 9.3% 11.3%

4.4%

4.3%

3.5%

3.1%

2.2%

1.9% 14.6%

United States 40.0%

Japan - 11.3%

China - 9.3%

France - 5.3%

Germany - 4.4%

United Kingdom - 4.3%

Canada - 3.5%

Italy - 3.1%

Spain - 2.2%

Netherlands - 1.9%

Other - 14.6%
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Sovereign Debt Product Performance Comparisons 

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 5

2 SOVEREIGN DEBT PRODUCT PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS

2.1 Global 10-Year Treasury Yields (Unhedged)

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield moved to 3.88% at month-end December 2023, a MoM decrease of

59 bps. This marks the second consecutive MoM decrease for U.S. 10-year Treasury notes; still

claiming the highest government yield amongst the countries listed below. All month-end yields listed

have decreased MoM for two consecutive months from October to December 2023.

The yield on the UK 10-year note decreased to 3.53% at month-end December, a MoM decrease of 

75 bps. 

The yield on the German 10-year note decreased to 2.02% at month-end December, a MoM 

decrease of 62 bps.

The yield on the Italian 10-year note decreased to 3.47% at month-end December, a MoM decrease

of 92 bps.

The yield on the Japanese 10-year note decreased to 0.60% at month-end December, a MoM 

decrease of 17 bps.

Figure 4. Global 10-Year Treasury Yields

Source: Bloomberg. Note: Data as of December 2023.

3.88%

3.47%

3.53%

2.02%

0.60%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

% Yield

USA 10-Year UK 10-Year Germany 10-Year Italy 10-Year Japan 10-Year
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Sovereign Debt Product Performance Comparisons 

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 6

2.2 U.S. Treasury Hedged Yields

The yield for the 10-year Treasury, hedged in Japanese Yen (JPY) stood at -1.05% at monthend December, a 32 bp decrease from month-end November.

The yield for the 10-year Treasury, hedged in Euros (EUR) stood at 2.28% at month-end 

December, a 60 bp decrease from month-end November.

Figure 6. U.S. 10yr Total Return Hedged, 1 yr. EUR

Figure 5. U.S. 10yr Total Return Hedged, 1 yr. JPY

Source: Bloomberg. Notes: Data as of December 2023. The 10yr Total Return Hedged Yields are calculated by taking the 10yr treasury yield and 

subtracting the 1yr hedge cost for JPY and EUR.

1.50%

1.00%

0.50%

0.00%

-0.50%

-1.00%

-1.50%

-2.00%

-2.50%

-1.05%

2.28%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Fixed Income Product Performance Comparisons

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 7

SECONDARY MORTGAGE MARKET

3 FIXED INCOME PRODUCT PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS

3.1 Ginnie Mae Yields – USD

Ginnie Mae II yields were 6.58% at month-end October, decreased 72 bps to 5.72% at month-end

November, then decreased 52 bps to 5.20% at month-end December. Ginnie Mae II spreads over the

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased 11 bps YoY to 132 bps over the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield as

of month-end December 2023.

Figure 8. Ginnie Mae II SF Yield – U.S. 10yr Treasury Yield

Figure 7. Ginnie Mae II SF Yield, USD

Source: Bloomberg. Note: Data as of December 2023.

5.20%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

% Yield

1.32%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

GNMA 2 - 10yr Treasury Yield
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Fixed Income Product Performance Comparisons

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 8

3.2 Ginnie Mae Hedged Yields

The yield for Ginnie Mae II’s, hedged in Japanese Yen stood at 0.27% at month-end December, 

a 25 bp decrease from month-end November.

The yield for Ginnie Mae II’s, hedged in Euros stood at 3.60% at month-end December, a 53 bp 

decrease from month-end November.

Figure 10. Ginnie Mae II Hedged, 1 yr. EUR

Figure 9. Ginnie Mae II Hedged, 1 yr. JPY

Source: Bloomberg. Notes: Data as of December 2023. The Ginnie Mae II Hedged Yields are calculated by taking the Ginnie Mae II Yield and

subtracting the 1yr hedge cost for JPY and EUR.

0.27%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

3.60%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Fixed Income Product Performance Comparisons

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 9

3.3 Ginnie Mae Yield Spreads – Intermediate Credit

The GNMA II 30-year OAS decreased 10 bps MoM, to 0.40%, as of month-end December. The U.S.

Intermediate Credit OAS decreased 7 bps MoM, to 0.81%, as of month-end December. The yield

differential between U.S. Intermediate Credit and GNMA II 30-year OAS increased 3 bps to 0.41% at

month-end December.

Figure 11. U.S. GNMA II 30yr MBS OAS versus U.S. Intermediate Credit OAS

Figure 12. Spread between U.S. Intermediate Credit and U.S. GNMA II 30yr MBS OAS

Source: Bloomberg. Note: Data as of December 2023.

0.40%

0.81%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

% Yield

US GNMA 30yr II - OAS U.S. Intermediate Credit - OAS

0.41%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

% Yield
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Fixed Income Product Performance Comparisons

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 10

3.4 Global Treasury Yield Per Duration

GNMA MBS continued to offer a higher yield in comparison to other government fixed income

securities of various tenors with similar or longer duration. Prepayment risk is a feature of MBS.

Figure 13. Yield vs. Duration

Security Duration Yield

U.S. 5y 4.51 3.95

U.S. 10y 7.92 3.88

JPY 5y 4.67 0.19

JPY 10y 9.16 0.59

GER 5y 4.46 1.85

GER 10y 8.40 1.89

ITA 5y 4.47 2.92

ITA 10y 8.02 3.47

UK 5y 3.99 3.44

UK 10y 7.67 3.49

GNMA II 2% 6.62 4.50

GNMA II 2.5% 6.64 4.57

GNMA II 3% 6.29 4.65

GNMA II 3.5% 6.05 4.77

GNMA II 4% 5.72 4.88

0

GNMA II 4.5% 5.59 5.03

GNMA II 5% 4.85 5.17

GNMA II 5.5% 4.44 5.34

GNMA II 6% 3.88 5.56

GNMA II 6.5% 3.36 5.55

Source: Bloomberg. Note: Yield and modified duration for GNMA II securities is based on median prepayment assumptions from surveyed

Bloomberg participants. All data is as of December 2023. Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged.

6.00

5.50

5.00

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

GNMA II 6.5%

GNMA II 6%

GNMA II 5.5%

GNMA II 5%

GNMA II 4.5%

GNMA II 4%

GNMA II 2.5% GNMA II 3%

GNMA II 3.5%

GNMA II 2%

US 5y US 10y

UK 5y ITA 10y UK 10y

ITA 5y

GER 5y GER 10y

JPY 10y

JPY 5y

0.00

3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.

Yield

Duration
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Prepayments

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 11

4 PREPAYMENTS

4.1 Aggregate Prepayments (CPR) 

Fannie Mae fixed rate aggregate prepayment speeds remained at 4.4% from November 2023 to

December 2023. Contrarily, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae CPRs both decreased by 0.1% and 0.3%,

respectively, from November to December 2023. ARM prepayments also decreased 1.1% for Freddie

Mac, remained the same for Fannie Mae, and increased 13.0% for Ginnie Mae.

Figure 14. Fixed Rate Aggregate 1-Month CPR

Figure 15. ARM Aggregate 1-Month CPR

Source: Recursion. Note: Data as of December 2023.

4.1

4.4

5.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

CPR (%)

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

10.0

10.0

18.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CPR (%)

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Prepayments

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 12

4.2 Involuntary Prepayments (CDR)

Fixed rate involuntary prepayments (CDR) remained higher for Ginnie Mae than for the GSEs. The

spread in prepayment speeds between Ginnie Mae and GSE prepayments has converged significantly

since Ginnie Mae’s peak of 12.4 CDR in June 2020. ARM CDRs for Freddie Mac continued to remain

below Ginnie Mae as of month-end December 2023 after slightly overtaking Ginnie Mae in

September 2022.

Figure 16. Fixed Rate Aggregate CDR

Figure 17. ARM Aggregate CDR

Source: Recursion. Note: Data as of December 2023.

0.2

0.3

0.8

0

5

10

15

CDR (%)

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

0.2

0.3

0.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

CDR (%)

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Prepayments

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 13

4.3 Voluntary Prepayment Rates (CRR)

Fixed rate voluntary prepayments were higher for Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae than Freddie Mac. 

Freddie Mac saw a decrease of 0.1% in fixed rate aggregate CRR while Fannie Mae remained at 4.1%. 

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae saw a 0.9% and 0.1% decrease in ARM aggregate CRR, respectively. 

Ginnie Mae fixed rate aggregate CRR decreased by 0.3% and ARM aggregate CRR increased by 13.1%.

Figure 18. Fixed Rate Aggregate CRR

Figure 19. ARM Aggregate CRR

Source: Recursion. Note: Data as of December 2023.

4.1

3.9

4.3

0

10

20

30

40

CRR (%)

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

9.7

17.8

9.9

0

10

20

30

40

CRR (%)

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Single-Family MBS Pass-Through Issuance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 14

5 SINGLE-FAMILY MBS PASS-THROUGH ISSUANCE

5.1 Gross Issuance of Agency MBS

In December 2023, total gross MBS issuance decreased by approximately $7.4 billion MoM. Freddie

Mac and Fannie Mae saw a MoM decrease of $1.4 and $2.8 billion, respectively. Ginnie Mae saw a

$3.2 billion MoM decrease in gross issuance.

Table 1. Agency Gross Issuance ($ in billions)

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9 

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.6

2019 $597.4 $445.2 $1,042.6 $508.6 $1,551.2

2020 $1,343.4 $1,064.1 $2,407.5 $775.4 $3,182.9

2021 $1,388.0 $1,245.1 $2,633.1 $840.9 $3,474.0

2022 $628.3 $551.6 $1,179.9 $512.3 $1,692.2

2023 YTD $320.3 $301.4 $621.8 $375.5 $997.3

Figure 20. Agency Gross Issuance

Source: Recursion. Note: Numbers are rounded to the nearest hundred million. For sums, like “GSE Total”, the values are rounded after the exact

underlying values are summed. As a result, some sums may not appear to match the sum of their rounded component values.

$376

$320

$0.0 $301

$500.0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$ in Billions

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Single-Family MBS Pass-Through Issuance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 15

Table 2. Ginnie Mae Gross Issuance Collateral Composition ($ in billions)

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1 

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 $266.9 $225.7 $16.0 $508.6

2020 $327.0 $423.5 $24.9 $775.4

2021 $392.2 $422.1 $26.7 $840.9

2022 $275.8 $221.7 $14.8 $512.3

2023 YTD $227.6 $140.3 $7.7 $375.5

Figure 21. Ginnie Mae Gross Issuance

Source: Recursion. Note: Numbers are rounded to the nearest hundred million. For sums, like “GSE Total”, the values are rounded after the exact

underlying values are summed. As a result, some sums may not appear to match the sum of their rounded component values.

$228

$140

$0.0 $8

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$300.0

$350.0

$400.0

$450.0

$ in Billions

FHA VA Other
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Single-Family MBS Pass-Through Issuance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 16

5.2 Net Issuance of Agency MBS

Agency Net Issuance as of month-end December was $235.0 billion for 2023 YTD, shown in Table 3.

Since 2022, FHA net issuance has outpaced VA net issuance, as shown in Table 4 and Figure 23.

Table 3. Agency Net Issuance ($ in billions) 

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Ginnie Mae Total

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $53.5 $11.8 $65.3 $89.6 $154.9

2014 $-4.0 $30.0 $26.0 $61.6 $87.7

2015 $3.5 $65.0 $68.4 $97.3 $165.7

2016 $60.5 $66.8 $127.4 $126.1 $253.5

2017 $83.7 $77.0 $160.7 $132.3 $293.0

2018 $81.9 $67.6 $149.4 $112.0 $261.5

2019 $87.4 $110.3 $197.7 $95.7 $293.5

2020 $289.3 $343.5 $632.8 $19.9 $652.7

2021 $384.9 $498.0 $882.9 $2.7 $885.6

2022 $200.4 $161.5 $361.9 $177.4 $539.4

2023 YTD $55.3 $3.3 $58.6 $176.3 $235.0

Figure 22. Agency Net Issuance

Source: Recursion. Note: Numbers are rounded to the nearest hundred million. For sums, like “GSE Total”, the values are rounded after the exact

underlying values are summed. As a result, some sums may not appear to match the sum of their rounded component values.

$176

$55

$3

-$200.0

-$100.0

$0.0

$100.0

$200.0

$300.0

$400.0

$500.0

$600.0

$ in Billions

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Single-Family MBS Pass-Through Issuance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 17

Table 4. Ginnie Mae Net Issuance Collateral Composition ($ in billions)

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.2

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 $35.9 $58.0 $1.9 $95.7

2020 -$52.5 $71.0 $1.3 $19.9

2021 -$64.2 $74.2 -$7.3 $2.7

2022 $98.5 $80.7 -$1.7 $177.4

2023 YTD $127.7 $50.4 -$1.8 $176.3

Figure 23. Ginnie Mae Net Issuance

Source: Recursion. Note: Numbers are rounded to the nearest hundred million. For sums, like “GSE Total”, the values are rounded after the exact

underlying values are summed. As a result, some sums may not appear to match the sum of their rounded component values.

$47

$118

-$2

-$100.0

-$50.0

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$ in Billions

FHA VA Other
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Single-Family MBS Pass-Through Issuance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 18

5.3 Monthly Issuance Breakdown

Agency net issuance for the month of December was approximately $15.0 billion, which represents 

a $6.6 billion decrease MoM. Ginnie Mae net issuance was $12.6 billion in December, a $2.6 billion

decrease from November 2023. Ginnie Mae’s $27.3 billion of gross issuance in December, seen in

Table 5, was approximately $15.4 billion below the average monthly issuance in 2022.

Table 5. Agency Issuance ($ in billions) 

Agency Gross Issuance Amount (in $ Billions) Agency Net Issuance Amount (in $ Billions)

Month Fannie 

Mae

Freddie 

Mac

Ginnie 

Mae

GSEs Total Fannie 

Mae

Freddie 

Mac

Ginnie 

Mae

GSEs Total

Dec-20 $130.8 $126.7 $76.9 $257.5 $334.4 $22.8 $53.1 $1.7 $75.8 $77.5

Jan-21 $141.6 $117.3 $78.2 $258.9 $337.1 $25.9 $37.9 -$6.5 $63.8 $57.3

Feb-21 $118.8 $115.5 $72.3 $234.3 $306.6 $16.8 $44.3 -$0.9 $61.1 $60.2

Mar-21 $143.9 $118.9 $76.9 $262.8 $339.7 $37.6 $44.0 $1.0 $81.6 $82.6

Apr-21 $148.0 $142.3 $85.6 $290.3 $375.9 $26.2 $57.0 -$4.2 $83.3 $79.0

May-21 $132.3 $91.4 $71.7 $223.7 $295.4 $64.9 $38.8 -$3.1 $103.7 $100.6

Jun-21 $108.5 $91.2 $67.7 $199.7 $267.4 $34.0 $33.7 $2.6 $67.8 $70.4

Jul-21 $95.4 $84.6 $69.0 $180.0 $249.0 $27.6 $31.9 -$1.4 $59.5 $58.0

Aug-21 $104.8 $109.3 $66.6 $214.1 $280.8 $27.5 $48.5 $1.4 $76.1 $77.4

Sep-21 $102.9 $105.3 $68.0 $208.3 $276.3 $26.4 $45.6 $3.1 $72.0 $75.1

Oct-21 $105.1 $102.7 $62.5 $207.8 $270.3 $34.6 $46.9 $1.9 $81.5 $83.4

Nov-21 $93.6 $81.1 $60.8 $174.7 $235.5 $29.5 $34.9 $3.1 $64.4 $67.6

Dec-21 $93.7 $85.4 $58.9 $179.1 $238.0 $33.8 $34.4 $5.7 $68.3 $73.9

Jan-22 $93.1 $85.9 $59.0 $179.0 $238.0 $45.6 $37.6 $14.0 $83.2 $97.3

Feb-22 $73.3 $64.6 $49.0 $137.9 $186.9 $27.8 $22.7 $9.7 $50.5 $60.2

Mar-22 $76.8 $62.9 $47.4 $139.7 $187.1 $22.6 $23.1 $6.9 $45.7 $52.6

Apr-22 $65.3 $53.5 $47.8 $118.8 $166.6 $19.5 $17.7 $13.2 $37.2 $50.4

May-22 $54.7 $43.7 $45.0 $98.4 $143.4 $13.6 $12.5 $15.5 $26.1 $41.6

Jun-22 $54.5 $42.0 $43.6 $96.5 $140.1 $14.8 $10.7 $16.0 $25.5 $41.5

Jul-22 $46.8 $40.3 $42.4 $87.1 $129.5 $12.1 $14.4 $18.0 $26.5 $44.5

Aug-22 $39.8 $46.3 $40.3 $86.1 $126.4 $4.8 $19.8 $16.2 $24.6 $40.8

Sep-22 $39.3 $38.2 $39.9 $77.5 $117.4 $7.6 $13.9 $18.3 $21.5 $39.8

Oct-22 $34.1 $26.1 $35.5 $60.2 $95.7 $5.8 $4.7 $17.3 $10.5 $27.8

Nov-22 $25.7 $22.7 $33.6 $48.4 $82.0 $0.3 $3.5 $18.3 $3.8 $22.1

Dec-22 $24.9 $25.5 $28.8 $50.4 $79.2 $0.2 $6.6 $14.0 $6.8 $20.8

Jan-23 $25.7 $22.4 $27.1 $48.1 $75.2 $3.4 $5.3 $14.1 $8.7 $22.8

Feb-23 $18.9 $16.5 $22.7 $35.4 $58.1 -$4.4 -$1.4 $8.6 -$5.8 $2.8

Mar-23 $23.6 $19.2 $26.2 $42.8 $69.0 -$4.4 -$2.4 $8.7 -$6.8 $1.9

Apr-23 $27.7 $21.0 $31.6 $48.7 $80.3 $1.4 $0.6 $15.0 $2.0 $17.0

May-23 $30.4 $29.0 $32.6 $59.4 $92.0 $0.6 $6.0 $13.5 $6.6 $20.1

Jun-23 $33.5 $32.9 $37.5 $66.4 $103.9 $3.1 $9.3 $17.8 $12.4 $30.2

Jul-23 $31.7 $27.9 $36.3 $59.6 $95.9 $3.6 $5.9 $18.0 $9.5 $27.5

Aug-23 $27.8 $27.9 $36.5 $55.7 $92.2 -$1.5 $4.8 $17.2 $3.3 $20.5

Sep-23 $28.1 $31.1 $35.1 $59.2 $94.3 $1.9 $10.7 $18.6 $12.6 $31.2

Oct-23 $28.2 $24.5 $32.1 $52.7 $84.8 $2.6 $4.5 $17.0 $7.1 $24.1

Nov-23 $23.8 $25.3 $30.5 $49.1 $79.5 -$0.1 $6.5 $15.2 $6.4 $21.6

Dec-23 $20.9 $23.9 $27.3 $44.8 $72.1 -$2.9 $5.4 $12.6 $2.5 $15.0

Sources: Beginning May 2021, data for Gross and Net Issuance was sourced from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae loan level disclosure

files. Net issuance is defined here as the difference between prior period UPB and current period UPB. Data as of December 2023. Beginning with 

the October 2021 GMAR, the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac net issuance data have been updated to reflect the current UPB of the portfolios. July

2021 through December 2023 GMAR net issuance data reflect the UPB at security issuance for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Note: Numbers are 

rounded to the nearest hundred million.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Single-Family MBS Pass-Through Issuance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 19

5.4 Percent Refi at Issuance – Single-Family

Refinance activity decreased by approximately 9.8% MoM for Ginnie Mae as of month-end December

2023. The decrease is likely due to elevated mortgage rates discouraging refinance activity.

Freddie Mac’s refinance percentage decreased to 11.5% in December, down from 11.6% in 

November.

Fannie Mae’s refinance percentage decreased to 11.9% in December, down from 12.4% in 

November.

Ginnie Mae’s refinance percentage decreased to 14.7% in December, down from 16.3% in 

November.

FHA’s refinance percentage decreased to 14.6% in December, down from 16.3% in November.

VA’s refinance percentage decreased to 15.7% in December, down from 17.2% in November.

Figure 24. Percent Refinance at Issuance – Single-Family

Source: Recursion. Note: Data as of December 2023.

11.9%

15.7%

14.6%

11.5%

14.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Freddie Fannie Ginnie FHA VA
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Single-Family MBS Outstanding

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 20

6 AGENCY SINGLE-FAMILY MBS OUTSTANDING

6.1 Outstanding Single-Family Agency MBS

As of month-end December 2023, outstanding Single-Family MBS in the agency market totaled

$8.838 trillion: 40.5% Fannie Mae, 33.4% Freddie Mac, and 26.1% Ginnie Mae MBS. Over the past

twelve months, Fannie Mae’s, Freddie Mac’s, and Ginnie Mae’s total outstanding MBS increased by

approximately 0.1%, 1.9%, and 8.3%, respectively. Fannie Mae outstanding MBS remains larger than

Freddie Mac’s and Ginnie Mae’s by approximately $627 billion and $1.3 trillion, respectively.

Ginnie Mae MBS collateral composition has changed dramatically over the past five years. In

December 2018, 59.7% of Ginnie Mae outstanding collateral was FHA and 34.2% was VA. As of

month-end December 2023, FHA collateral comprised 54.3% of Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, and VA

collateral comprised 41.2% of Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding.

Figure 25. Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Figure 26. Composition of Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

Source: Recursion. Note: Data as of December 2023.

$3,578

$2,951

$2,309

$8,838

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

$ in Billions

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

$1,257

$952

$105

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

$ in Billions

FHA VA OTHER
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Single-Family MBS Outstanding

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 21

6.2 Origination Volume and Share Over Time

First lien origination volume decreased in Q3 2023, with approximately $385 billion in originations,

which represents a decrease in issuance of 3.8% from Q2 2023. Ginnie Mae’s share of total origination

increased from 22.8% to 26.4% in Q3 2023, while portfolio origination decreased from 32.1% to

26.1%.

Figure 27. First Lien Origination Volume

Figure 28. First Lien Origination Share

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance. Note: Data as of Q3 2023.

$0.17

$0.10

$0.01

$0.10

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

$5.0

$ In Trillions

GSE securitization FHA/VA securitization PLS securitization Portfolio

45.1%

26.4%

2.5%

26.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GSE securitization FHA/VA securitization PLS securitization Portfolio
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Single-Family MBS Outstanding

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 22

6.3 Agency Issuance and Agency Outstanding by State

Ginnie Mae MBS represents approximately 38% of new agency issuance over the past year, roughly 

11% higher than Ginnie Mae’s 27% share of agency outstanding. The share of Ginnie Mae’s new

agency issuance varies across states, with the highest Ginnie Mae share being Alaska (60%) and the

lowest in the District of Columbia (23%). The highest Ginnie Mae outstanding share is in Mississippi 

and Alaska (49%) and the lowest in the District of Columbia (14%).

Table 6. Agency Issuance Breakdown by State

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding (past 1 year)

National GNMA Share 

by UPB

GNMA 

Loan Count

GNMA Avg. 

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg.

Loan Size (000)

GNMA Share 

by UPB

GNMA

Loan Count

GNMA Avg. 

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg.

Loan Size (000)

38% 1,522,177 296.62 302.05 27% 11,118,283 210.20 211.64

AK 60% 4,065 353.45 308.79 49% 37,892 264.33 220.06

AL 53% 36,095 234.32 247.26 42% 247,137 163.15 178.63

AR 48% 18,766 201.69 234.44 40% 141,120 137.18 162.64

AZ 39% 45,128 337.17 341.35 26% 290,550 230.39 228.24

CA 33% 85,751 470.42 467.78 17% 714,226 335.58 318.91

CO 35% 31,199 418.28 409.31 24% 222,277 301.46 279.44

CT 33% 11,963 280.31 289.81 26% 108,680 205.08 208.98

DC 23% 1,058 511.92 434.69 14% 9,315 390.73 347.05

DE 39% 6,650 286.04 309.00 32% 53,929 208.33 212.47

FL 42% 143,927 320.08 316.29 33% 899,702 222.53 215.61

GA 45% 80,419 276.90 307.74 35% 519,474 188.83 209.84

HI 47% 3,440 625.93 520.13 33% 34,417 473.63 356.81

IA 33% 11,364 192.81 203.96 23% 85,324 138.15 148.41

ID 35% 9,015 343.82 332.87 24% 66,457 228.85 225.09

IL 30% 46,305 219.78 251.66 23% 379,489 163.08 179.48

IN 38% 39,777 203.40 221.67 31% 288,382 139.44 152.64

KS 38% 12,937 204.84 230.44 30% 98,563 144.34 164.62

KY 47% 24,240 208.34 223.54 36% 171,278 148.37 156.50

LA 53% 26,448 210.53 238.80 41% 209,609 160.26 176.85

MA 29% 13,850 397.24 391.12 17% 117,865 290.89 267.66

MD 45% 34,135 352.90 343.52 34% 301,315 268.61 249.08

ME 35% 4,792 263.73 283.45 26% 38,863 182.73 193.10

MI 28% 35,841 196.24 222.08 21% 283,468 137.48 157.18

MN 24% 17,303 263.66 285.26 18% 162,409 186.19 198.87

MO 39% 32,829 209.37 230.04 30% 251,076 146.58 162.99

MS 59% 17,217 211.16 226.52 49% 127,171 148.38 161.67

MT 33% 3,866 329.33 325.84 24% 32,943 216.12 218.01

NC 40% 64,884 271.91 302.40 30% 431,064 184.27 204.82

ND 36% 2,040 248.97 245.98 25% 17,333 195.17 182.80

NE 36% 8,136 233.18 234.34 27% 66,199 154.84 161.78

NH 30% 4,464 334.77 326.71 23% 39,021 231.75 216.51

NJ 31% 28,500 343.52 357.90 22% 238,894 246.41 254.77

NM 48% 12,430 257.66 271.72 39% 98,294 172.55 179.89

NV 43% 20,047 361.46 346.93 31% 140,093 257.07 237.61

NY 28% 32,689 308.84 344.11 20% 313,904 214.94 248.74

OH 37% 55,315 197.15 210.23 30% 436,079 134.49 150.21

OK 49% 25,084 213.36 231.89 43% 194,296 146.02 163.96

OR 29% 13,687 367.33 375.26 20% 114,549 260.77 254.44

PA 31% 43,672 211.92 256.90 26% 397,419 151.54 182.72

RI 45% 4,549 352.36 318.10 31% 37,081 241.56 213.28

SC 45% 39,535 269.30 273.32 35% 247,702 191.05 194.31

SD 41% 3,899 256.55 252.45 30% 30,017 178.66 177.65

TN 41% 41,924 277.46 296.81 32% 279,358 184.94 207.38

TX 39% 167,530 288.10 320.33 33% 1,154,480 192.01 216.77

UT 33% 14,661 397.82 398.28 20% 100,663 273.24 265.76

VA 48% 54,570 342.93 340.65 37% 458,227 261.10 249.91

VI 27% 79 406.04 434.58 24% 801 261.89 306.96

VT 25% 1,353 255.52 276.72 19% 12,388 183.65 181.44

WA 32% 28,317 415.70 426.77 22% 238,909 292.67 290.84

WI 27% 15,567 222.42 237.75 18% 127,085 160.32 163.16

WV 54% 8,286 203.12 197.82 45% 62,277 147.63 145.22

WY 46% 3,188 284.33 277.35 36% 25,522 210.09 201.76

Source: Recursion. Note: Outstanding balance based on loan balance as of December 2023. Values above are based on loan level disclosure data, thus

excluding loan balances for first 6 months that loans are in a pool. This accounts for the difference in share of outstanding MBS represented above & in

Outstanding Single-Family Agency MBS.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Single-Family MBS Outstanding

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 23

6.4 Outstanding Ginnie Mae MBS Volume by Coupon and Vintage Over Time

As of month-end December 2023, the weighted average coupon (WAC) on outstanding Ginnie Mae

MBS increased slightly from 3.48% in November 2023 to 3.51% as seen in Figure 29. Figure 30

illustrates that loans originated since 2019 account for approximately 82% of Ginnie Mae MBS

collateral outstanding.

Figure 29. Outstanding Ginnie Mae MBS Balance, by Coupon

Figure 30. Outstanding Ginnie Mae MBS Balance, by Vintage

Source: Recursion. Note: December 2023 data points reflect the current composition of balances by coupon and vintage; factor data is not

applied to prior date balance compositions. Average coupon is weighted by remaining principal balance.

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Avg Coupon %

<3 >=3 and <3.5 >=3.5 and <4 >=4 Average Coupon %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pre 2008 2008-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency REMIC Securities

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 24

7 AGENCY REMIC SECURITIES

7.1 Monthly REMIC Demand for Ginnie Mae MBS

Ginnie Mae Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) issuance volume for the month of

December was approximately $7.8 billion. This represents a 11.74% MoM decrease from $8.8 billion

in November 2023, and a 3.31% decrease YoY from $8.1 billion in December 2022. Approximately

$215.5 million of the December 2023 issuance volume were Multifamily MBS having coupons over

4.0% and approximately $6.5 billion were Single-Family MBS having coupons over 6.0%. $288.9

million of previously securitized REMICs were re-securitized into new REMIC deals in December.

Figure 31. Ginnie Mae Single-Family and Multifamily REMIC Issuance

Table 7. December 2023 REMIC Collateral Coupon Distribution

Net Coupon (%) Approx. Ginnie Mae MBS amount securitized into REMIC Deals 

($MM)2F

5

% Breakdown of REMIC 

Collateral by coupon Multifamily

3.501-4.000 243.5 53.1%

4.501-5.000 215.5 46.9%

Subtotal 459.0 100.0%

Single-Family

ReREMIC 288.9 3.9%

2.001-2.501 1.7 0.0%

2.501-3.001 41.2 0.6%

4.001-4.501 133.9 1.8%

4.501-5.001 110.9 1.5%

5.001-5.501 259.5 3.5%

6.001-6.501 2,798.3 38.2%

6.501-7.001 3,424.7 46.7%

>7.001 271.0 3.7%

Subtotal 7,330.0 100.0%

Grand Total 7,788.9 100.0%

Source: Ginnie Mae Disclosure Files

5

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

$8.1 $7.6

$12.0

$7.8 $6.1

$10.3 $7.7 $5.0

$11.3 $8.9 $10.2 $8.8 $7.8

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency REMIC Securities

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 25

7.2 REMIC Market Snapshot

 In December 2023, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac saw increases in their single-family REMIC

issuance collateral coupon of 2 bps and 25 bps, respectively, to new 12-month highs. Fannie

Mae’s single-family REMIC issuance collateral coupon decreased 15 bps MoM.

 In December 2023, Ginnie Mae and Freddie Mac saw decreases of 4 bps and 11 bps, 

respectively, in their multifamily REMIC issuance collateral coupon. Fannie Mae did not issue

a multifamily REMIC deal in December, marking their 5th time doing so in 2023.

 In December 2023, Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae issued 17 deals and 6 deals, respectively,

across SF and MF. That was a decrease of 3 deals and 2 deals, respectively. Freddie Mac issued

20 deals, across SF and MF, an increase of 6 deals MoM. 

 In December 2023, total single-family and multifamily issuance across the three agencies fell

11.8% or $2.02 billion from November.

Figure 32. December 2023 REMIC Issuance by Agency

Table 8. Monthly REMIC Issuance by Agency

SF REMIC 

Issuance 

Volume ($B)

% of SF REMIC 

Issuance 

Volume

Number of SF 

REMIC 

Transactions

MF REMIC 

Issuance 

Volume ($B)

% of MF REMIC 

Issuance 

Volume

Number of MF 

REMIC 

Transactions

Ginnie Mae 7.33 76.4% 12 0.46 9.8% 4

Freddie Mac 1.46 15.2% 11 4.24 90.2% 9

Fannie Mae 0.80 8.4% 6 0.00 0.0% 0

Total 6 $9.60 100% 29 $4.70 100% 13

Source: Ginnie Mae Disclosure Files

6 Totals may not sum due to rounding.

0.5

4.2

0.0

7.3

1.5

0.8

Ginnie Mae Freddie Mac Fannie Mae

Outer: Single-Family

Inner: Multifamily
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

MBS Ownership

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 26

8 MBS OWNERSHIP

As of Q3 2023, the largest holders of agency debt (agency MBS + agency notes and bonds) included

commercial banks (21%), the Federal Reserve (19%), and foreign investors (12%). The Federal

Reserve’s share decreased slightly by 1% in the third quarter of 2023 as compared to the second

quarter of 2023. Out of the approximately $2.5 trillion in holdings as of the end of December 2023,

roughly $1.91 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks per Table 9 below. 

Figure 33. Who Owns Total Agency Debt?

Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds. Note: The “other” category includes primarily life insurance companies, state and local governments,

households, and nonprofits. Data as of Q3 2023.

8.1 Commercial Bank Holdings of Agency MBS

Table 9. Commercial Bank Holdings of Agency MBS

Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions)

Apr-23 May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1,953.4 1,947.1 1,961.3 1,955.1 1,944.4 1,940.1 1,921.3 1,927.7 1,907.9

Small Domestic 

Banks 627.8 628.4 618.2 610.5 602.0 587.2 578.1 572.8 581.8

Foreign Related 

Banks 26.8 24.0 26.2 24.3 23.2 25.9 26.7 30.1 27.6

Total, 

Seasonally 

Adjusted

2,608.0 2,599.5 2,605.7 2,589.9 2,569.6 2,553.2 2,526.1 2,530.6 2,517.3

Source: Federal Reserve Bank. Note: Small domestic banks include all domestically chartered commercial banks not included in the top 25. Data 

as of December 2023.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% Fed

Commercial Banks

Dealers

GSEs

REITs

Mutual Funds

Money Market Funds

& Pension Funds

Credit Unions

Foreign Investment

Other
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

MBS Ownership

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 27

8.2 Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

In Q3 2023, MBS holdings at banks and thrifts continued to decrease. The decrease was mostly driven

by GSE pass-throughs and Agency CMO holdings. Ginnie Mae pass-throughs saw a decrease of 2.8%,

showing the smallest percentage decrease of all banks and thrifts, quarter over quarter (QoQ). Total 

bank and thrift MBS holdings decreased by approximately 12.1% from Q3 2022 and 6.3% from Q2

2023. Out of the $2.14 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q3 2023, $1.29 trillion were

GSE pass-throughs and $373 billion were Ginnie Mae pass-throughs.

Table 10. Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

All Banks & Thrifts ($ in billions) All MBS ($ in billions)

Year Total GSE PT GNMA PT Private 

MBS

Agency 

CMO

Private 

CMO Banks Thrifts

2001 $730.84 $270.59 $109.53 $37.62 $236.91 $76.18 $606.91 $203.37

2002 $832.50 $376.11 $101.46 $20.08 $244.98 $89.88 $702.44 $209.66

2003 $899.89 $461.72 $75.11 $19.40 $236.81 $106.86 $775.66 $206.45

2004 $1,011.01 $572.40 $49.33 $20.55 $208.18 $160.55 $879.75 $234.31

2005 $1,033.77 $566.81 $35.92 $29.09 $190.70 $211.25 $897.06 $242.69

2006 $1,124.46 $628.52 $31.13 $42.32 $179.21 $243.28 $983.49 $223.42

2007 $1,149.10 $559.75 $31.58 $26.26 $174.27 $357.24 $971.42 $264.59

2008 $1,218.77 $638.78 $100.36 $12.93 $207.66 $259.04 $1,088.00 $211.73

2009 $1,275.52 $629.19 $155.00 $7.53 $271.17 $212.64 $1,161.67 $184.07

2010 $1,433.38 $600.80 $163.13 $7.34 $397.30 $181.61 $1,233.28 $200.09

2011 $1,566.88 $627.37 $214.81 $3.28 $478.82 $167.70 $1,359.24 $207.64

2012 $1,578.86 $707.87 $242.54 $17.16 $469.27 $138.67 $1,430.63 $148.22

2013 $1,506.60 $705.97 $231.93 $26.11 $432.60 $114.15 $1,363.65 $142.94

2014 $1,539.32 $733.71 $230.45 $20.33 $449.90 $104.94 $1,409.84 $129.48

2015 $1,643.56 $823.10 $292.30 $11.14 $445.39 $71.63 $1,512.67 $130.89

2016 $1,736.93 $930.67 $323.46 $7.40 $419.80 $55.60 $1,576.07 $160.86

2017 $1,844.15 $1,010.83 $367.70 $4.63 $413.97 $47.01 $1,672.93 $171.22

2018 $1,814.97 $980.56 $380.43 $2.69 $416.59 $34.69 $1,634.99 $179.98

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,001.61 $383.49 $3.06 $422.18 $34.65 $1,673.40 $171.59

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,037.93 $407.97 $2.90 $421.56 $36.76 $1,727.65 $179.47

3Q19 $1,975.78 $1,079.82 $427.10 $4.74 $428.69 $35.44 $1,786.74 $189.04

2019 $1,985.38 $1,089.41 $426.85 $4.62 $428.99 $35.52 $1,796.29 $189.09

1Q20 $2,107.66 $1,173.36 $448.34 $4.65 $443.73 $37.57 $1,907.02 $200.64

2Q20 $2,195.19 $1,228.87 $441.06 $5.00 $478.11 $42.14 $1,946.36 $248.83

3Q20 $2,310.42 $1,349.48 $415.24 $4.43 $499.50 $41.78 $2,040.61 $269.81

4Q20 $2,520.90 $1,537.54 $390.66 $3.94 $548.65 $40.10 $2,210.22 $310.68

1Q21 $2,690.92 $1,713.78 $374.63 $4.88 $555.35 $42.28 $2,350.94 $339.98

2Q21 $2,781.91 $1,825.80 $352.77 $4.77 $555.45 $43.12 $2,431.76 $350.15

3Q21 $2,858.59 $1,886.78 $353.12 $4.24 $565.51 $48.95 $2,487.32 $371.27

4Q21 $2,906.04 $1,915.48 $352.71 $4.45 $577.98 $55.42 $2,529.78 $376.26

1Q22 $2,799.22 $1,817.72 $368.43 $4.04 $548.60 $60.43 $2,476.12 $323.10

2Q22 $2,623.79 $1,665.94 $369.20 $3.81 $523.01 $61.83 $2,321.17 $302.62

3Q22 $2,431.57 $1,520.24 $352.02 $3.29 $496.72 $59.30 $2,156.16 $275.41

4Q22 $2,423.87 $1,505.65 $371.91 $3.96 $481.69 $60.65 $2,154.46 $269.41

1Q23 $2,356.93 $1,441.18 $386.32 $4.12 $465.24 $60.08 $2,088.27 $268.65

2Q23 $2,280.38 $1,389.37 $383.52 $3.03 $446.19 $58.27 $2,022.46 $257.92

3Q23 $2,137.37 $1,289.29 $372.71 $2.63 $416.84 $55.89 $1,892.93 $244.44

Change:

2Q23-3Q23 -6.3% -7.2% -2.8% -13.1% -6.6% -4.1% -6.4% -5.2%

3Q22-3Q23 -12.1% -15.2% 5.9% -20.0% -16.1% -5.7% -12.2% -11.2%

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance. Notes: Data as of Q3 2023.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

MBS Ownership

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 28

Table 11. Top 20 Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Investors ($ in millions)

Rank Institution Total GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Non-Agency Share

1 Bank Of America Corporation $391,501.0 $329,448.0 $56,255.0 $5,656.0 $142.0 18.3%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $221,156.0 $141,703.0 $77,058.0 $2,337.0 $58.0 10.3%

3 JPMorgan Chase & Co. $155,852.0 $65,121.0 $78,094.0 $492.0 $12,145.0 7.3%

4 Charles Schwab $146,103.0 $82,508.0 $5,184.0 $58,411.0 $0.0 6.8%

5 Truist Bank $94,378.0 $47,324.0 $10,741.0 $33,505.0 $2,808.0 4.4%

6 U.S. Bancorp $93,011.4 $59,409.8 $23,102.3 $10,499.2 $0.1 4.4%

7 Citigroup Inc. $82,089.0 $617.0 3.8%

8 PNC Bank, National Association $66,149.3 $56,128.4 $3,733.4 $5,346.2 $941.3 3.1%

$63,563.0 $15,799.0

9 

$2,110.0

Capital One Financial 

Corporation $59,512.4 $28,072.3 $13,922.7 $17,197.5 $320.0 2.8%

10 Morgan Stanley $47,308.0 $29,290.0 $6,466.0 $11,523.0 $29.0 2.2%

11 Bank Of New York Mellon 

Corporation $37,611.0 $26,281.0 $1,471.0 $8,096.0 $1,763.0 1.8%

12 USAA Federal Savings Bank $35,306.0 $29,812.0 $1,734.0 $3,760.0 $0.0 1.7%

13 State Street Bank and Trust 

Company

$34,679.3 $12,693.0 $7,927.0 $12,493.3 $1,566.0 1.6%

14 BMO Harris Bank National

Association $28,675.4 $3,870.8 $5,751.2 $19,053.4 $0.0 1.3%

15 The Huntington National Bank $26,094.3 $10,300.1 $8,502.9 $7,172.6 $118.7 1.2%

16 TD Bank USA/TD Bank NA $25,998.1 $1,164.1 $70.8 $24,730.9 $32.3 1.2%

17 KeyBank National Association $23,122.6 $3,463.2 $167.6 $19,491.8 $0.0 1.1%

18 HSBC Bank USA, National

Association $23,053.7 $3,876.6 $14,222.4 $4,954.0 $0.7 1.1%

19 Citizens Bank, National 

Association $22,907.3 $11,578.3 $5,101.0 $6,228.1 $0.0 1.1%

20 Ally Bank $18,161.0 $11,369.0 $1,675.0 $1,457.0 $3,660.0 0.8%

Total Top 20 $1,632,668.7 $1,016,975.5 $336,978.3 $254,514.0 $24,201.0 76.4%

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance. Notes: Data as of Q3 2023.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

MBS Ownership

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 29

8.3 SOMA Holdings

FOMC and Economic Highlights:

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting 12/13/2023 Press Release: 

 “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to

5-1/2 percent.”

 “Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on

economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The

Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.”

 “The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.”

 “The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt

and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.” 

 Powell indicated in his press conference that “we are likely at or near the peak rate for this

cycle,” but is “not taking the possibility of future rate hikes off the table.” The next FOMC

meeting is scheduled for January 30-31.

SOMA Portfolio Highlights (Nov 29, 2023 vs. Dec 27, 2023)

 SOMA holdings of domestic securities totaled $7.1 trillion on December 27th (a decrease of

$67.8 billion or -0.94% from November 29th). $52.5 billion (77% of the total decrease) was in

U.S. Treasury holdings and $15.2 billion (23% of the total decrease) was in Agency MBS.

 Since the institution of redemption caps in June 2022, SOMA holdings have decreased by

$1.275 trillion. The total reduction of holdings of U.S. Treasuries was $1.0 trillion and $275.0

billion of Agency MBS. This represents 95.8% and 44.9% of the total redemption cap over the

period for U.S. Treasuries and Agency MBS, respectively.

 Agency MBS comprise about 34% of the total SOMA portfolio. The $15.2 billion monthly

decrease was primarily due to MBS principal repayments rather than outright sales and was 

comprised of a $6.4 billion decrease in Fannie Mae holdings, a $5.4 billion decrease in Freddie

Mac holdings, and a $3.4 billion decrease in Ginnie Mae holdings.

 Over 99% of SOMA Agency MBS holdings have coupons of 4.5% or lower with an average

WAC of 2.507%.

 The redemption cap for SOMA’s Agency MBS holdings is set at $35 billion per month. The

reduction of $15.2 billion in Agency MBS represents 43% of the monthly liquidation cap.

Table 12. SOMA Holdings as of November 29, 2023 and December 27, 2023 ($ Billions)

Holdings by Security 

Type

November 29, 2023 December 27, 2023 Month-Over-Month

SOMA Holdings % Share SOMA Holdings % Share $ Change % Change 7

U.S. Treasuries $4,729.1 65.89% $4,676.6 65.77% -$52.5 -1.11%

Federal Agency Debt $2.3 0.03% $2.3 0.03% $0.0 0.00%

Agency MBS $2,438.8 33.79% $2,423.5 34.08% -$15.2 -0.62%

Agency Commercial MBS $8.3 0.12% $8.2 0.12% $0.0 -0.50%

Total SOMA Holdings $7,178.5 100.0% $7,110.7 100.0% -$46.4 -0.64%

7

 Table 12 illustrates figures in $ billions, any change less than $50 million will be expressed as a “$0.0” change in the “$ Change” column.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

MBS Ownership

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 30

Table 13. SOMA Agency MBS Holdings Distribution ($ Billions)

Agency

Singly-Family 

AMBS 

Outstanding 

December 1, 2023

% AMBS 

Outstanding

SOMA AMBS 

Holdings 

November 29, 

2023

% SOMA 

Holdings

SOMA AMBS 

Holdings 

December 27, 

2023

% SOMA 

Holdings

Fannie Mae $3,580.5 40.6% $1,004.3 41.2% $997.9 41.2%

Freddie Mac $2,945.4 33.4% $931.4 38.2% $926.0 38.2%

Ginnie Mae $2,296.9 26.0% $503.1 20.6% $499.6 20.6%

Total $8,822.7 100.0% $2,438.8 100.0% $2,423.5 100.0%

Table 14. SOMA Agency MBS Liquidations from Nov 29, 2023 to Dec 27, 2023 ($ Billions)

MBS Holdings as of 11.29.23 MBS Holdings 12.27.23 Liquidated Amount Liquidation Cap 8 % of Liquidation Cap

Total $2,438.8 $2,423.5 $15.2 $35.0 43%

Source: New York FED SOMA Holdings https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma-holdings. Notes: The liquidation cap is per calendar month. 

Our analysis here instead covers a four-week period to maintain consistency with other analyses in this report.

8 The Liquidation cap is per calendar month. Our analysis here instead covers a four-week period to maintain consistency with other analyses in

this report.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

MBS Ownership

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 31

8.4 Foreign Ownership of MBS

For the month of November 2023, foreign ownership of MBS represented $1.31 trillion in Agency 

MBS, up approximately $124 billion from November 2022. Total foreign ownership of Agency MBS

represents roughly 14% of total Agency MBS outstanding. Total foreign ownership excluding Fed 

Holdings and CMO’s represents roughly 24% of total Agency MBS available.

Figure 34. Agency MBS Owned by Foreign Entities Ex-Fed Holdings and CMO’s (USD Billions)

Figure 35. Agency MBS Owned by Foreign Entities (USD Billions)

Sources: TIC and Recursion, as of November 2023.

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-

35%

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Agency MBS Held by Foreign Entities in $B

% of SF Agency MBS Outstanding

% of SF Agency MBS Outstanding without Fed

% of SF Agency MBS Outstanding without Fed & CMO

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Agency MBS Held by Foreign Entities in $B % of Agency MBS Outstanding
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

MBS Ownership

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 32

8.5 Foreign Ownership of Agency Debt and Agency MBS

The largest holders of Agency MBS were China, Japan, and Taiwan. As of September 2023, these three

owned roughly 54% of all foreign owned Agency MBS. Between September 2022 and September

2023, China and Japan increased their Agency MBS holdings while Taiwan’s holdings decreased. 

China’s holdings increased by $13.6 billion, Japan’s holdings increased by $19.7 billion, and Taiwan’s 

holdings decreased by $8.4 billion.

Table 15. All Agency Debt

Country Level of Holdings ($ Millions) Change in Holdings ($ Millions)

12/1/2022 3/1/2023 6/1/2023 9/1/2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023

China 251,592 263,892 269,980 255,110 10,069 12,300 6,088 -14,870

Japan 278,069 287,051 253,357 252,463 45,300 8,982 -33,694 -894

Taiwan 210,309 212,533 208,226 201,010 856 2,224 -4,307 -7,216

Canada 97,234 105,527 105,330 116,642 7,921 8,293

Luxembourg

-197

47,240

11,312

51,202 40,971 42,656

United Kingdom 61,393 41,101 55,682 90,017 5,045 -20,292 14,581 34,335

8,681 3,962 -10,231 1,685

Ireland 22,478 25,099 36,766 39,697 4,786 2,621 11,667 2,931

Cayman Islands 30,941 29,485 30,398 37,089 -4,140 -1,456 913 6,691

South Korea 36,237 38,131 36,737 36,508 594 1,894 -1,394 -229

France 19,609 22,578 20,411 24,287 3,410 2,969 -2,167 3,876

Other 225,466 196,641 208,190 218,177 34,361 -28,825 11,549 9,987

Total 1,280,568 1,273,240 1,266,048 1,313,656 116,883 -7,328 -7,192 47,608

Table 16. Agency MBS

Country

Level of Holdings ($ Millions)

9/1/2022 9/1/2023 YoY Change in Holdings ($ Millions)

China 241,523 255,110 13,587

Japan 232,769 252,463 19,694

Taiwan 209,453 201,010 -8,443

Canada 89,313 116,642 27,329

United Kingdom 56,348 90,017 33,669

Luxembourg 38,559 42,656 4,097

Ireland 17,692 39,697 22,005

Cayman Islands 35,081 37,089 2,008

South Korea 35,643 36,508 865

France 16,199 24,287 8,088

Other 191,105 218,177 27,072

Total 1,163,685 1,313,656 149,971

Source: Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Level of agency debt Holdings by month data as of Q3 2023. Agency MBS as of September

2023. Table 16 includes the top 10 holders of agency debt listed as of September 2023.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Fixed Income Liquidity Indicators

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 33

9 FIXED INCOME LIQUIDITY INDICATORS

The Agency MBS average daily trading volume YTD as of month-end December 2023 was $255 billion, 

which was up from a monthly average of $241 billion for calendar year 2022. As of month-end

December 2023, Agency MBS average daily trading volume decreased 7.1% MoM. See footnote below

for update on “Average Daily Turnover by Sector” data.

Figure 36. Average Daily Trading Volume by Sector

Figure 37. Average Daily Turnover by Sector

Source: SIFMA. Note: Data as of December 2023 for Average Daily Trading Volume by Sector and as of December 2021 for Agency MBS in Average

Daily Turnover by Sector. The MBS outstanding database for Turnover by Sector is under maintenance and is not updated in this report.

$255

$740

$41

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$ Billions

Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

2.70%

2.96%

0.37% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 34

PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET

10 AGENCY CREDIT BREAKDOWN

Tables 17, 18, and 19 below outline the population distributions of FICOs, DTIs, and LTVs between

the agencies and between FHA, VA, and other Ginnie Mae loan sources as of month-end December

2023. The distribution statistics capture some key differences in the populations served by the

agencies.

10.1 Credit Scores

Table 17. Share of Loans by FICO Score

Purchase FICO

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 190,707 655 697 746 781 799 736

Fannie 58,198 699 731 765 789 802 757

Freddie 64,351 692 727 763 788 802 754

Ginnie 68,158 629 656 695 744 781 700

Refi FICO

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 38,650 625 657 704 755 788 704

Fannie 11,047 661 697 739 776 798 734

Freddie 11,832 663 695 735 772 796 732

Ginnie 15,771 598 628 658 694 734 662

All FICO

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 229,357 647 688 740 778 798 730

Fannie 69,245 691 726 761 787 801 753

Freddie 76,183 686 722 760 787 801 751

Ginnie 83,929 623 649 687 736 777 693

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown by Source

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 68,158 629 656 695 744 781 700

FHA 44,829 626 650 683 725 761 689

VA 21,126 639 675 732 777 798 724

Other 2,203 634 659 695 735 765 698

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown by Source

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

.

All 15,771 598 628 658 694 734 662

FHA 11,092 593 624 653 685 720 654

VA 4,672 610 640 674 717 757 679

Other 7 644 654 689 695 743 692

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown by Source

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 83,929 623 649 687 736 777 693

FHA 55,921 620 645 677 718 757 682

VA 25,798 631 665 719 770 796 716

Other 2,210 634 659 695 735 765 698

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files. Note: All averages are rounded to the nearest whole number
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 35

5%

Figure 38. FICO Distributions by Agency

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files.

0.0%

2.4%

12.7%

27.9%

46.2%

10.8%

0.1%

2.3%

10.8%

28.0%

47.5

11.3%

2.2%

16.9%

23.9%

22.1%

27.1%

6.9%

4.6%

26.1%

35.5%

20.9%

10.2%

1.0%

550 - 600

600 - 650

650 - 700

700 - 750

750 - 800

800 - 850

FHA VA Fannie Mae Freddie Mac
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 36

10.2 Loan-to-Value (LTV)

Table 18. Share of Loans by LTV

Purchase LTV

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 190,951 60 80 90 97 99 85

Fannie 58,289 54 75 80 95 97 79

Freddie 64,368 51 71 80 94 95 78

Ginnie 68,294 89 97 98 100 100 96

Refi LTV

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 38,798 31 48 66 79 84 62

Fannie 11,050 26 39 55 68 76 53

Freddie 11,833 26 40 58 70 79 55

Ginnie 15,915 52 67 79 81 91 74

All LTV

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 229,749 51 73 85 97 98 81

Fannie 69,339 44 65 80 91 95 75

Freddie 76,201 44 64 80 90 95 74

Ginnie 84,209 74 90 98 99 100 92

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown by Source

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 68,294 89 97 98 100 100 96

FHA 44,919 90 97 98 98 98 96

VA 21,150 81 100 100 100 101 96

Other 2,225 90 98 101 101 101 97

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown by Source

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 15,915 52 67 79 81 91 74

FHA 11,176 48 64 76 81 81 70

VA 4,731 62 77 90 96 100 84

Other 8 35 40 53 82 85 58

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown by Source

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 84,209 74 90 98 99 100 92

FHA 56,095 73 86 97 98 98 90

VA 25,881 76 90 100 100 100 93

Other 2,233 89 97 101 101 101 97

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files. Note: All averages are rounded to the nearest whole number.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 37

Figure 39. Loan-to Value by Agency

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files.

22.9%

41.0%

30.4%

5.7%

22.3%

39.9%

28.7%

9.1%

4.5%

9.9%

19.2%

66.5%

4.5%

12.3%

18.0%

65.2%

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00%

0 - 60%

60 - 80%

80 - 95%

95 - 100%

FHA VA Fannie Mae Freddie Mac
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 38

10.3 Debt-to-Income (DTI)

Table 19. Share of Loans by DTI

Purchase DTI

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 190,624 27 35 42 48 51 41

Fannie 58,289 25 32 40 45 49 38

Freddie 64,368 25 33 41 46 49 39

Ginnie 67,967 33 40 46 52 56 45

Refi DTI

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 38,532 25 33 41 47 50 40

Fannie 11,050 23 30 38 43 47 36

Freddie 11,833 25 33 41 46 49 39

Ginnie 15,649 29 36 44 50 55 43

All DTI

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 229,156 27 34 42 48 51 41

Fannie 69,339 24 32 39 45 48 38

Freddie 76,201 25 33 41 46 49 39

Ginnie 83,616 32 39 46 52 55 45

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown by Source

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 67,967 33 40 46 52 56 45

FHA 44,903 34 41 47 52 55 46

VA 20,842 31 38 46 52 57 45

Other 2,222 28 32 36 40 42 35

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown by Source

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 15,649 29 36 44 50 55 43

FHA 11,038 29 36 44 50 55 42

VA 4,603 29 36 44 50 55 43

Other 8 27 32 36 40 40 35

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown by Source

Names Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 83,616 32 39 46 52 55 45

FHA 55,941 33 40 46 52 55 45

VA 25,445 31 38 46 52 56 44

Other 2,230 28 32 36 40 42 35

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files. Note: All averages are rounded to the nearest whole number.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 39

Figure 40. Debt-to Income by Agency

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files.

32.6%

33.9%

33.4%

36.2%

36.3%

27.5%

18.2%

26.6%

55.2%

14.1%

26.5%

59.3%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

0 - 35%

35 - 44%

> 44%

FHA VA Fannie Mae Freddie Mac
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 40

10.4 High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. GSEs

Comparing the three-month range of October 2022 – December 2022 to the three-month range of

October 2023 – December 2023, the share of high-LTV agency loans with:

 FICO scores above 750 increased by approximately 11.3%.

 DTIs below 35% decreased by approximately 19.2%.

Ginnie Mae maintains its key role of expanding credit access to low-to-moderate income borrowers 

as it continues to dominate high-LTV lending, with 70.97% of its issuances between October 2023 –

December 2023 having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 22.06% for the GSEs.

Table 20. Share of Loans with LTV > 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

Oct 2022 - Dec 2022 68.45% 22.84% 40.22%

Oct 2023 - Dec 2023 70.97% 22.06% 40.65%

Table 21. Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV > 95 (Oct 2022 - Dec 2022)

FICO

DTI <650 650-700 700-750 ≥750 NA All

<35 2.14% 3.35% 4.57% 6.96% 0.04% 17.05%

35-45 5.90% 8.94% 10.33% 11.04% 0.03% 36.24%

≥45 8.46% 13.89% 12.45% 10.74% 0.07% 45.61%

NA 0.25% 0.20% 0.13% 0.16% 0.36% 1.10%

All 16.74% 26.39% 27.49% 28.90% 0.49% 100.00%

Table 22. Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV > 95 (Oct 2023 - Dec 2023)

FICO

DTI <650 650-700 700-750 ≥750 NA All

<35 1.60% 2.52% 3.54% 6.04% 0.06% 13.77%

35-45 4.96% 7.58% 9.75% 12.00% 0.05% 34.34%

≥45 7.74% 14.07% 14.92% 13.93% 0.10% 50.76%

NA 0.25% 0.20% 0.15% 0.18% 0.34% 1.12%

All 14.55% 24.38% 28.37% 32.16% 0.55% 100.00%

Sources: Recursion and Ginnie Mae. Data as of December 2023.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 41

10.5 Serious Delinquency Rates

Serious delinquency rates for Single-Family GSE, VA, and FHA loans all fell in Q3 2023. From Q2 2023

to Q3 2023, Fannie and Freddie serious delinquencies both decreased by 1 bp. Ginnie Mae collateral’s

serious delinquency rates decreased more than the GSE rate, with VA decreasing 16 bps and FHA

decreasing 37 bps. This overall decline in serious delinquency rates is consistent with the decrease in

the number of loans in forbearance captured in Section 11.

Figure 41. Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Sources: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Monthly Summary Reports. MBA Delinquency Survey

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q3 2023.

3.24%

0.55%

0.54%

1.99%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1Q074Q073Q082Q091Q104Q103Q112Q121Q134Q133Q142Q151Q164Q163Q172Q181Q194Q193Q202Q211Q224Q223Q23

Serious Delinquency Rates

FHA Fannie Mae Freddie Mac VA
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 42

10.6 Credit Box

The first-time homebuyer share for agency purchase loans was 55.0% as of month-end December

2023, an increase from 55.6% in November 2023 and up from 54.3% in December 2022. Freddie Mac

and Fannie Mae’s first-time homebuyer shares, 45.9% and 48.1%, respectively, as of month-end 

December 2023, increased 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, YoY. Ginnie Mae’s first-time homebuyer

share increased 1.4% YoY. Table 23 shows that based on mortgages originated as of month-end

December 2023, the average GSE first-time homebuyer was more likely to have a higher credit score

and lower LTV than a Ginnie Mae first-time homebuyer. Ginnie Mae’s first-time homebuyers were

more likely to have lower loan amounts and lower credit scores, while having higher mortgage rates

than Ginnie Mae repeat buyers. 

Figure 42. First-Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Table 23. Agency First-Time Homebuyer Share Summary

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount $ $309,315 $324,942 $322,944 $327,549 $306,448 $350,553 $311,848 $332,205

Credit Score 750 763 747 761 694 712 724 750

LTV (%) 85.3% 74.1% 83.7% 73.2% 96.6% 93.3% 90.0% 78.3%

DTI (%) 38.0% 37.9% 38.8% 38.5% 44.7% 45.9% 41.3% 40.1%

Loan Rate (%) 7.3% 7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.0% 6.9% 7.1% 7.3%

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files as of December 2023

45.9%

48.1%

69.5%

55.0%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

First-Time Homebuyer Share

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 43

In the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 77.4% of FHA loans, 51.3% of VA loans, and 82.9% of “Other”

loans provided financing for first-time home buyers as of month-end December 2023. The share of 

first-time home buyers in the Ginnie Mae purchase market decreased MoM for FHA, VA loans, and

“Other” loans. Table 24 shows that based on mortgages originated as of month-end December 2023;

the credit profile of the average VA first-time homebuyer differed from the average VA repeat buyer. 

The average VA first-time homebuyer took out 16.0% smaller loans, had a 23.9-point lower credit

score, 5.2% higher LTV than VA repeat buyers. 

FHA’s first-time homebuyers are much more like their repeat buyers, with only 3.3% smaller loans,

similar interest rates, and 2.6% higher LTVs. Because FHA provides one of few credit options for

borrowers with lower credit scores, repeat borrowers with weaker credit profiles are often limited to

FHA financing; FHA’s repeat buyers have similar credit scores compared to their first-time home

buyers. For VA and conventional borrowers alike, repeat buyers tend to have higher credit scores 

than first-time homebuyers.

Figure 43. First-time Homebuyer Share: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

Table 24. Ginnie Mae First-Time Homebuyer Share Breakdown Summary

FHA VA Other Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan 

Amount $ $306,676 $316,997 $327,659 $389,969 $177,361 $177,334 $306,448 $350,553

Credit Score 688 689 712 736 698 698 694 712

LTV (%) 96.1% 93.5% 98.0% 92.9% 97.0% 97.7% 96.6% 93.3%

DTI (%) 45.4% 46.8% 44.3% 45.3% 35.3% 35.8% 44.7% 45.9%

Loan Rate 

(%) 7.0% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9% 7.1% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9%

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files as of December 2023.

Note: LTV, DTI, and Loan Rate are rounded to nearest tenth.

77.4%

51.3%

82.9%

69.5%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

First-time Homebuyer Share

FHA VA Other All
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 44

10.7 Credit Box: Historical

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated as of month-end December 2023 was 737,

which represents an 8-point increase from December 2022. Ginnie Mae median FICO scores

increased 10 points from 672 in December 2022 to 682 as of month-end December 2023. As of

month-end December 2023, average FICO scores for refinancesincreased for Ginnie Mae and Freddie

Mac borrowers by 4 and 21 points YoY, respectively.

Figure 44. FICO Scores for All Loans

Figure 45. FICO Scores for Purchase Loans Figure 46. FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files

760

761

682

737

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Credit Breakdown

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 45

In December 2023, the median LTV for Ginnie Mae loans was 97.2% compared to 80% for Fannie Mae

and Freddie Mac, owing primarily to the lower down-payment requirements for government loan 

programs. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saw their LTV ratios remain flat YoY, while Ginnie Mae saw a 

0.8% decrease in LTV from December 2022 to December 2023. In December 2023, median DTIs for

Ginnie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae were 45.5%, 41.0%, and 39.0%, respectively. In December

2022, median DTIs for Ginnie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae were 45.0%, 40.0%, and 39.0%,

respectively.

Figure 48. DTI Ratio for All Loans

Figure 47. LTV Ratio for All Loans

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosure files.

80.0

97.2

87.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Loan-to-Value Ratio (%)

Freddie Median Fannie Median Ginnie Median All Median

41.0

39.0

45.5

42.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

Freddie Median Fannie Median Ginnie Median All Median
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Forbearance Trends

January 2024

11 FORBEARANCE TRENDS

At the end of December 2023, 30,628 Ginnie Mae loans were in forbearance. The number of loans in

forbearance removed from MBS pools in December was 317 while 30,311 loans in forbearance

remained in pools. The number of loans in forbearance and loans in forbearance that remained in

pools decreased MoM. The median current principal balance for Ginnie Mae, FHA, and VA was higher

for loans in forbearance originated by nonbanks than banks in all subsets.

Tables 25-27. Forbearance Snapshot

All Loans in Forbearance – December 2023

FICO 

Score*

Note 

Rate*

Current Principal 

Balance Median

First Time Homebuyer 

Share (%)

Purchase 

Share (%) Loan Count

Ginnie 650 4.2 $190,391 73.8 74.8 30,628

Bank 669 4.1 $135,416 81.8 83.7 6,751

Nonbank 647 4.2 $207,706 72.5 73.5 23,837

FHA 647 4.3 $180,509 77.1 76.6 24,666

Bank 668 4.2 $133,148 83.8 84.4 5,846

Nonbank 644 4.3 $196,514 75.8 75.2 18,786

VA 656 4.0 $275,946 58.9 66.0 4,610

Bank 667 3.5 $185,111 61.2 73.0 578

Nonbank 655 4.0 $289,624 58.6 65.6 4,028

Loans in Forbearance and Removed from Pools – December 2023

FICO 

Score*

Note 

Rate*

Current Principal 

Balance Median

First Time Homebuyer 

Share (%)

Purchase 

Share (%) Loan Count

Ginnie 653 5.4 $156,713 76.7 72.5 317

Bank 673 6.0 $126,298 85.7 89.9 196

Nonbank 640 5.0 $226,059 68.7 61.9 121

FHA 647 5.8 $154,316 78.9 79.2 277

Bank 671 6.1 $129,974 86.7 90.2 183

Nonbank 630 5.5 $226,258 71.2 71.0 94

VA 681 3.7 $189,843 48.7 32.6 32

Bank 723 4.7 $165,616 50.8 92.2 7

Nonbank 679 3.5 $247,607 48.3 28.7 25

Loans in Forbearance that Remain in Pools – December 2023

FICO 

Score*

Note 

Rate*

Current Principal 

Balance Median

First Time Homebuyer 

Share (%)

Purchase 

Share (%) Loan Count

Ginnie 650 4.2 $190,698 73.8 74.8 30,311

Bank 669 4.1 $135,506 81.7 83.6 6,555

Nonbank 647 4.2 $207,603 72.5 73.5 23,716

FHA 647 4.3 $180,937 77.1 76.6 24,389

Bank 668 4.1 $133,340 83.7 84.3 5,663

Nonbank 644 4.3 $196,147 75.9 75.2 18,692

VA 656 4.0 $276,409 58.9 66.2 4,578

Bank 667 3.5 $185,376 61.2 72.9 571

Nonbank 655 4.0 $290,030 58.7 65.8 4,003

Sources: Ginnie Mae loan level MBS disclosure and forbearance file and Ginnie Mae Issuer Operational Performance Profile (IOPP) -Peer Group

Listings. Notes: Data as of December 2023; *Averages weighted by remaining principal balance of the loans. Rounded to nearest tenth.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 47

12 HOLDERS OF GINNIE MAE MORTGAGE SERVICING RIGHTS

The 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for loans collateralizing Ginnie Mae

MBS is shown in Table 28. The top 30 firms collectively own 87.40% of Ginnie Mae MSRs (see

Cumulative Share). Twenty of these top 30 are non-depository institutions, the remaining ten are

depository institutions. As of December 2023, over half (52.36%) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned

by the top six firms.

Table 28. Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

MSR Holder Current Rank Year 

prior

Change UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

CPR CDR

Lakeview Loan Servicing 1 1 $305,707,846,129 13.2% 13.22% 4.96% 0.76%

DBA Freedom Mortgage 2 2 $296,362,553,418 12.8% 26.03% 5.56% 0.78%

PennyMac Loan Service 3 3 $272,200,727,324 11.8% 37.80% 4.67% 0.64%

Wells Fargo Bank 4 6 $98,760,968,180 4.3% 42.07% 6.12% 1.09%

Mr. Cooper (Nationstar) 5 4 $127,103,782,134 5.5% 47.56% 5.47% 0.86%

Rocket Mortgage (Quicken Loans) 6 7 $110,997,457,460 4.8% 52.36% 6.49% 0.31%

Carrington Mortgage 7 8 $114,244,507,254 4.9% 57.30% 5.30% 0.83%

Newrez LLC 8 5 $127,425,405,294 5.5% 62.81% 4.63% 0.50%

U.S. Bank 9 9 $56,290,083,731 2.4% 65.24% 5.28% 1.96%

Planet Home Lending 10 11 $68,188,306,990 2.9% 68.19% 4.18% 0.28%

United Wholesale Mortgage 11 10 $57,385,938,152 2.5% 70.67% 4.48% 1.14%

LoanDepot 12 12 $40,149,963,475 1.7% 72.41% 5.49% 0.65%

Truist Bank 13 18 $20,350,122,365 0.9% 73.29% 5.40% 0.95%

M&T Bank 14 NR $27,304,315,798 1.2% 74.47% 3.73% 0.33%

Navy Federal Credit Union 15 15 $29,357,977,883 1.3% 75.74% 4.90% 0.29%

MidFirst Bank 16 27 $11,763,983,119 0.5% 76.25% 10.70% 6.09%

The Money Source 17 17 $22,707,722,340 1.0% 77.23% 5.27% 0.62%

Guild Mortgage Company 18 16 $24,297,036,621 1.1% 78.28% 4.10% 0.17%

PHH Mortgage Corporation 19 26 $18,581,291,813 0.8% 79.08% 3.95% 0.57%

J.P. Morgan Chase Bank 20 29 $10,150,658,401 0.4% 79.52% 5.73% 1.20%

Mortgage Research Center 21 13 $28,014,871,170 1.2% 80.73% 5.68% 0.49%

Idaho Housing and Finance 22 24 $17,508,665,746 0.8% 81.49% 3.12% 0.66%

New American Funding 23 20 $20,308,201,815 0.9% 82.37% 4.82% 0.52%

CrossCountry Mortgage 24 19 $21,471,402,564 0.9% 83.29% 5.12% 1.06%

Movement Mortgage 25 22 $20,720,967,937 0.9% 84.19% 3.64% 0.52%

Citizens Banks 26 25 $14,048,176,748 0.6% 84.80% 4.85% 0.61%

AmeriHome Mortgage 27 14 $19,832,742,871 0.9% 85.66% 4.15% 0.98%

CMG Mortgage 28 23 $19,219,156,954 0.8% 86.49% 4.60% 0.80%

PNC Bank 29 NR $6,567,445,910 0.3% 86.77% 5.29% 1.07%

Flagstar Bank 30 28 $14,573,701,003 0.6% 87.40% 5.38% 1.62%

Sources: Deloitte, Recursion. Notes: Data as of December 2023.
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Nonbank Originators

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 48

13 AGENCY NONBANK ORIGINATORS

Total agency nonbank origination share increased as of month-end December 2023 by approximately 

1.7% MoM. The increase in nonbank origination share was driven by an increase in both Freddie Mac 

and Fannie Mae nonbank origination share, up 5.0% MoM and 0.6% MoM, respectively. The Ginnie 

Mae nonbank share rose to 91.2% as of December 2023 but has remained consistently higher than 

the GSEs, largely driven by origination share of refinance mortgage loans.

Figure 49. Agency Nonbank Originator Share (All, Purchase, Refi)

Source: Recursion. Notes: Data as of December 2023.

83.0%

75.8%

80.6%

91.2%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Figure 50. Nonbank Origination Share:

Purchase Loans

Figure 51. Nonbank Origination Share:

Refi Loans

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Agency Nonbank Originations

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 49

Ginnie Mae’s total nonbank originator share remained relatively stable as of month-end December 

2023. Ginnie Mae continues to have a high proportion of nonbank originations, with a rate of 91.2% 

in December 2023. The percentage of Ginnie Mae’s “Other” nonbank refinanced loans decreased to 

44.5% in December 2023.

Figure 52. Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share (All, Purchase, Refi)

Source: Recursion. Notes: Data as of December 2023.

91.6%

91.2%

90.0%

91.9%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

FHA VA Other All

Figure 53. Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

Figure 54. Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refi Loans

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All FHA VA Other

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

All FHA VA Other
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Bank Vs. Nonbank Originators

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 50

14 BANK VS. NONBANK ORIGINATORS HISTORICAL CREDIT BOX, GINNIE MAE VS. 

GSE

14.1.1 (FICO, LTV, DTI)

The mortgage loan originations of nonbanks continued to have a consistently lower median FICO 

score than their bank counterparts across all agencies. The spread between nonbank and bank FICO 

scores remained constant from November 2023 to December 2023. The agency median FICO score 

increased to 738 in December 2023.

Figure 55. Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Figure 56. GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank Figure 57. Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Source: Recursion: Notes: Data as of December 2023.

738

753

733

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

780

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

720

730

740

750

760

770

780

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Bank Vs. Nonbank Originators

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 51

The median LTV for all GSE originators remained the same as of month-end December 2023 at 80.0%. 

Ginnie Mae median bank LTV remained flat at 98.2% and nonbank fell to 97.0%. Ginnie Mae median 

DTI remained at 45.8% through December 2023 in nonbank originations.

Figure 58. GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank Figure 59. Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Source: Recursion. Notes: Data as of December 2023.

Figure 60. GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank Figure 61. Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

All Median LTV

Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

94

96

98

100

All Median LTV

Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

All Median DTI

Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

All Median DTI

Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Bank Vs. Nonbank Originators

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 52

As of month-end December 2023, the median FICO score for Ginnie Mae bank increased by 6 points 

to 692 and nonbank remained constant at 681. The median FICO score for all Ginnie originations 

increased 1 point to 682. The gap between banks and nonbanks is most apparent in “Other” lending 

(21-point spread).

Source: Recursion. Notes: Data as of December 2023.

Figure 63. Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Score:

Bank vs. Nonbank

Figure 62. Ginnie Mae FICO Score:

Bank vs. Nonbank

Figure 64. Ginnie Mae VA FICO Score:

Bank vs. Nonbank

Figure 65. Ginnie Mae Other FICO Score:

Bank vs. Nonbank

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

All Median FICO

Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

FHA All Median FICO

FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

VA All Median FICO

VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

670

680

690

700

710

720

Other All Median FICO

Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Bank Vs. Nonbank Originators

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 53

Median DTI for Ginnie Mae nonbank originations has been consistently higher than the median DTI 

for Ginnie Mae bank originations. This is a trend evident for all Ginnie Mae-eligible loan types except 

forthe “Other” category, where the spread between median bank and nonbank DTI is relatively small.

Figure 66. Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank Figure 67. Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

Figure 68. VA DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank Figure 69. Other DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

Source: Recursion. Notes: Data as of December 2023.

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

All Median DTI

Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

38

40

42

44

46

48

FHA Median DTI

FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

VA Median DTI

VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

Other Median DTI

Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT 

Environmental, Social, Governance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 54

15 ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE

Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities are collateralized by loans that facilitate homeownership for

low-to-moderate income (LMI) borrowers, veterans, rural borrowers, and others that traditionally 

experience challenges in their efforts to achieve homeownership or obtain housing. Ginnie Mae is

enhancing their disclosures to provide insight into the extent that the securities they guarantee

support meaningful environmental and social goals. The timeline below captures the efforts Ginnie

Mae has taken to produce ESG disclosures in recent years.

15.1 Environmental, Social, and Governance: A Summary

Ginnie Mae’s guaranty of the securities provides a connection between the primary and secondary

mortgage markets that promote access to mortgage credit throughout the Nation for residential and

multifamily properties. The table below captures the outcomes Ginnie Mae has seen, both socially

and environmentally, through its guaranty program.

Table 29. ESG Metrics – MBS Portfolio (December 2023)

May 2021: 

LMI

“Social”

Disclosures

(% of loans

in LMI

Areas)

June 2021: 

Disclosures reveal

approximately $259 

billion of Outstanding

Ginnie Mae MBS

categorized as LMI

area loans as defined 

by HUD’s CDBG

Program

November 2021: 

Green

“Environmental”

Status Disclosures

Announced

identifies Green

properties within

Multifamily Pools.

March 2022: Full

implementation

of Green Status

Field into

Multifamily

Disclosures

April 2022: 

Introduction

of Affordable

Status

Disclosure

for

Multifamily

properties

February 2023: 

Low-Moderate

Income

Borrower

(LMIB)

Disclosure

Announced

September

2023:

Social

Bond

Program

Introduced

December

2023: ESG

Page

Enhancement

for Platinum

Pool Search

Results
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT 

Environmental, Social, Governance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 55

15.2 Environmental

Table 30. UPB by ESG Status

ESG Status UPB %

Green/Affordable 1,090,699,976 0.7%

Green/Broadly Affordable 343,303,047 0.2%

Green/Market 47,320,093,820 31.4%

Green Total 48,754,096,843 32.4%

Affordable 9 7,095,089,594 4.7%

Broadly Affordable 27,268,428,169 18.1%

Affordable Total 35,797,520,786 23.8%

ESG Total 83,117,614,606 55.2%

Total 150,548,571,224 100.0%

Much of Ginnie Mae’s environmental impact is made through its Multifamily programs.

Approximately 32% of Ginnie Mae collateral are “Green”-certified, as defined by the multiple

organizations that sponsor and maintain green building certifications, including the U.S. Green

Building Council, Energy Star, Greenpoint, and the National Green Building Standard, just to name a

few. Additionally, over 23% of Ginnie Mae Multifamily collateral is “Affordable” or “Broadly

Affordable”. In total 55.2% of Ginnie Mae’s Multifamily collateral is considered ESG.

Sources: Ginnie Mae Disclosures as of December 2023, https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/mfh/green

15.3 Social 

With the introduction of Ginnie Mae’s new social disclosures, investors can now identify the number

of underlying loans made to LMI borrowers, the percentage of LMI loan count out of total loan count,

the unpaid principal balance (UPB) of LMI loans in the MBS, and the percentage of LMI UPB out of

total MBS UPB. The borrower household income and address data, received from the government’s 

insuring and guarantying agencies, is compared against the appropriate Federal Financial Institution’s

Examination Council (FFIEC) Area Median Income (AMI) database by loan origination year. If the

borrower income is less than 80 percent of its respective AMI income value, in the associated census 

tract, their mortgage will be flagged as an LMI loan. In September 2023, Ginnie Mae launched its 

Social Bond update to its Single-Family Forward MBS program and its Social Impact and Sustainability 

Framework. These enhancements highlight the structural aspects of Ginnie Mae’s mission and

program which drives broader access to mortgage financing, affordable homeownership, and rental

opportunities for historically underserved communities. In December 2023, Ginnie Mae added 

Low/Moderate Geographic Area Values and Low/Moderate Borrower Income Values to their

Platinum pool securities including UPB amount and UPB percentage.

9 “Affordable” and “Broadly Affordable” removes “Green/Affordable” and “Green/Broadly Affordable” from the UPB total.

1.3% 0.4%

56.9%

8.5%

32.8%

Figure 70. Composition of Ginnie 

Mae Green Status and Affordable 

Multifamily Collateral

Green/Affordable

Green/Broadly Affordable

Green/Market

Affordable

Broadly Affordable
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT 

Environmental, Social, Governance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 56

15.3.1 LOW-TO-MODERATE INCOME BORROWERS

Roughly $298 billion of Ginnie Mae Single-Family collateral and over 1.7 million of loans outstanding

have been issued too low to moderate income borrowers. Total ESG UPB increased by approximately 

$23 billion YoY. 

Figure 71. ESG Share of the Outstanding SF Portfolio

Source: Ginnie Mae Disclosures as of December 2023

The UPB of pools that are made up of 20% or more LMI loans make up over 9% of total pool UPB.

These pools have slightly higher LTV’s, marginally lower FICO scores, and substantially lower loan

sizes than pools made up of less than 20% LMI loans. The UPB of pools that are made up of less than

20% LMI loans make up roughly 91% of total UPB.

Table 31. Percent LMI by Pool Share

Metric LMI Pool Share 

>50%

LMI Pool Share

20% - 50% LMI Share < 20% All Pools

Total UPB ($ billions) $8.2 $199.9 $2,057.5 $2,265.7

Average Original Loan Size $173,964 $191,328 $337,189 $323,726

Credit Score (Median) 674 675 679 677

DTI (Median) 40% 40% 40% 40%

LTV (Median) 97% 96% 95% 96%

Interest Rate (WA) 4.76% 4.59% 3.89% 3.95%

Source: Ginnie Mae Disclosures as of December 2023

$260

$265

$270

$275

$280

$285

$290

$295

$300

12.00%

12.50%

13.00%

13.50%

14.00%

14.50%

15.00%

15.50%

16.00%

ESG UPB in Billions

Percent Share of Guarantee Portfolio

ESG UPB Pool UPB Share Loan Count Share
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Environmental, Social, Governance

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 57

15.3.2 PURCHASE AND REFINANCE ORIGINATION BY INCOME BRACKET

Over 18% of all purchase and refinance loan originations guaranteed by Ginnie Mae are to households

with income less than $50,000 compared to 10.7% of the Government Sponsored Entities (GSE’s)

Single-Family guarantee portfolio. Additionally, over 68% of these loan originations guaranteed by 

Ginnie Mae are to households with income less than $100,000 compared to 47.3% at the GSE’s.

Figure 72. Income Distribution of Homebuyers Served Under Ginnie Mae Program

Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data as of 2022

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

<5

10-1520-2530-3540-4550-5560-6570-7580-8590-95

100-105110-115120-125130-135140-145150-155160-165170-175180-185190-195200-205210-215220-225230-235240-245

>250

% of Homebuyers

Income in Thousands

All Households Ginnie Mae Borrowers Conventional Loan Borrowers
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

U.S. Housing Market

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 58

U.S. HOUSING MARKET

16 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

16.1 Housing Affordability – Home Price Appreciation

Home prices increased in all regions in Q3 2023. Notably, the East North Central, Middle Atlantic,

South Atlantic, and New England regions all saw over a 2.00% increase QoQ. The West South Central

region saw the smallest QoQ increase in HPI of 1.06%. The New England region has appreciated more

than any other region over the past four quarters, appreciating by 9.21% from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023.

Figure 73. Regional HPI Trend Analysis Q/Q

Figure 74. FHFA U.S. Census Subregions as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau

Source: HPI data from FHFA and is seasonally adjusted. U.S. Census Subregions as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau.

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

East North Central East South Central Middle Atlantic

Mountain New England Pacific

South Atlantic West North Central West South Central
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

U.S. Housing Market

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 59

16.2 Housing Affordability – Inflation, Wages, and the Price of Real Estate

As of month-end December 2023, inflation was 3.3%, increasing from 3.1% in the month prior. 

Nationally, rents are down 0.8% YoY as of month-end December 2023. The MoM change in rents from 

November 2023 to December 2023 decreased by 0.1%. Wage growth saw no change for the fourth

consecutive month, holding at 5.2% at month-end December 2023. Month-end October 2023

reporting data shows YoY home price appreciation increased to 4.8% from a 4.0% YoY change in

October 2023.

Figure 76. Asset Price Appreciation vs. Wage Increases

Figure 75. Inflation | 12-Month Percent Change in CPI

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Consumer Price Index; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Research and Data - Wage-Growth Data; Rent.com

- Rental Price Appreciation; S&P/Case-Schiller U.S. National Home Price Index – Home Price Appreciation.

3.3%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

3.3%

5.2%

4.8%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

General Inflation Wage Growth Home Appreciation

Metric Statistic

General

Inflation 3.3%

Home Price

Appreciation 

(YoY)

4.8%

Rental Price

Appreciation

(Median

Rent Change 

YoY)

-0.8 %

Wage 

Growth 5.2%
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

U.S. Housing Market

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 60

16.2.1 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY – AFFORDABILITY INDEX

As of month-end December 2023, the Homebuyer Affordability Fixed Mortgage Index (HAFM) was

91.4 and the First-Time Homebuyer Monthly Payment (FTMP), which representsthe median payment

for first-time homebuyers, was $2,149. This marks a 16.38% decrease in the Homebuyer Affordability 

Fixed Mortgage Index and an 11.35% increase in monthly payments for first-time homebuyers from

December 2022 to December 2023. HAFM has decreased 51.33% and FTMP has increased 109.45%

since January 2021.

Source: Bloomberg. Note: Housing Affordability Index: Value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to

qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that a family earning the median income has more than enough 

income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment. This index is calculated for fixed rate 

mortgages.

Figure 77. Homebuyer Affordability Figure 78. First-Time Homebuyer Monthly Payment

91.4

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

$2,149 

 $500

 $700

 $900

 $1,100

 $1,300

 $1,500

 $1,700

 $1,900

 $2,100

 $2,300

 $2,500
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

U.S. Housing Market

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 61

16.2.2 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY – MORTGAGE RATE TRENDS

The Federal Reserve maintained the Federal Funds target range on December 13, 2023, at a range of

5.25% and 5.50% per the FOMC 10. As of January 18, 2024, the average 30-year and 15-year fixed rate

mortgage rates were 6.60% and 5.76%, respectively. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate

decreased 35 bps and the average 15-year fixed rate mortgage rate decreased 62 bps MoM from

December 14, 2023.

Figure 79 Average Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates

Sources: FRED data as of January 2024

10Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

6.60%

5.76%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

30-Year 15-Year
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

U.S. Housing Market

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 62

16.3 Housing Inventory

As of December 2023, there was 8.2 months of housing inventory on the market, a decrease of 0.6

months from a readjusted 8.8 months in November 2023. As housing affordability continues to

remain low (See above Section 16.2) Single-Family home sales are unlikely to play a large role in the

resolution of the housing shortfall. Figures 81 and 82 show Single-Family and Multifamily Housing

metrics, including the number of permits, starts, and completions. From December 2022 to

December 2023, the number of Single-Family completions rose 14.6%, while the number of starts 

and permits decreased 33.4% and 25.3%, respectively. Multifamily metrics show that from December 

2022 to December 2023, the number of completions decreased 5.4%, while the number of starts and

permits increased 20.9% and 15.9%, respectively.

Figure 80. Single-Family Housing Inventory

Figure 81. Single-Family Construction Metrics: Permits, Starts, Completions

8.2

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

985

1,027

969

500

650

800

950

1100

1250

1400

Number of Completions Number of Starts Number of Permits
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

U.S. Housing Market

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 63

Figure 82. Multifamily Constructions Metrics: Permits, Starts, Completions

Source: FRED. Figure 80: data as of November 2023. New Residential Construction, U.S. Census Bureau. Figure 81 & 82: data as of December

2023. Note: Figures 81 & 82 are calculated using a 3-month moving average to identify underlying trends in construction metrics.

449

383

507

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

Number of Completions Number of Starts Number of Permits
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

U.S. Housing Market

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 64

16.4 Size and Value of the U.S. Housing Market

The total value of the Single-Family housing market increased to $45.5 trillion in Q3 2023. The total

value of the US housing market is up approximately 139% from its trough in 2011. From Q3 2022 to 

Q3 2023 mortgage debt outstanding increased from $12.3 trillion to $12.9 trillion and household

equity increased from $31.2 trillion to $32.6 trillion. At roughly $9.0 trillion in Q3 2023, Agency SingleFamily MBS continues to account for a growing percentage of the total mortgage debt outstanding,

up to 65% of total mortgage debt from just 52% in 2011.

Figure 83. Value of the U.S. Housing Market

Figure 84. Size of the U.S. Residential Mortgage Market

Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Data as of Q3 2023.

12.9

32.6

45.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

$ Trillions

Debt Household Equity Total Value

0.4

0.5

9.0

3.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

$ Trillions

Private Label Securities Home Equity loans Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens
GLOBAL MARKETS ANALYSIS REPORT

Disclosure

January 2024

A Monthly Publication of Ginnie Mae’s Office of Capital Markets Page 65

17 DISCLOSURE

“The data provided in the Global Markets Analysis Report (hereinafter, the “report”) should be

considered as general information only and is current only as of its specified date, unless otherwise

noted. No information contained herein is, and should not be construed to be, investment advice.

Nor does any information contained herein constitute an offer to sell, or is a solicitation of an offer

to buy, securities.

The information contained herein is based upon information generally available to the public from

sources believed to be reliable as of the specified date. The accuracy of the information contained

herein is based on the corresponding accuracy of the issuer data as reported to the Government

National Mortgage Association (hereinafter, “Ginnie Mae”).

Therefore, if there is insufficient or inaccurate data to support calculations of any specific disclosure

information, Ginnie Mae disclaims any and all liability relating to that information, including, without

limitation, any express or implied representations or warranties for statements or errors contained

in, or omissions from, the report.

The forward-looking statements, and underlying assumptions, speak only as of the date of December

31, 2023. Ginnie Mae expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to update or revise any

forward-looking statement or underlying assumption contained in the report to reflect any change in 

its expectations or any change in circumstances upon which such statement is based.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Accordingly, there are no assurances given, nor 

representations or warranties made, that all estimated returns or projections will be realized, or that

actual returns or performance results will not materially differ from those estimated herein.”