Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
CONTENTS

Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 4

Global 10-year treasury yields 5

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 6-8

MBS yield per duration 9

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 10 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 11

National HPI, HPI by state 11-12

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 13

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 14

Outstanding Agency MBS 15

Origination volume over time 16

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 17-19

Purchase versus refi: Percent Refi at Issuance 20

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 21-22

FICO score distribution 23

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 24-26

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 27-29

High LTV credit box 30-31

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 32

Ginnie Mae nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 33

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 34-35

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae breakdown (FICO, LTV, DTI) 36-37

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 38-39

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 40

Prepayments 

Aggregate 41

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 41-44

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 45

Multifamily 46

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 47

Dealer net positions, repo volume 48

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 49

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 50

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 51

Foreign ownership of MBS 52-53

Fed Ownership of MBS 54
Key insights from latest data on foreign ownership of agency MBS

The US Department of Treasury just released latest annual data (as of June 2018) on foreign holdings of US agency 

mortgage-backed securities. This dataset covers cross-border securities investment flows between U.S. and foreign 

entities as of June every year for a wide range of asset classes in addition to agency MBS. While this dataset does 

not provide agency MBS breakout by agency (Fannie Mae versus Freddie Mac versus Ginnie Mae), it is still very 

useful in understanding broader trends in the foreign ownership of MBS, including key changes from previous year.

The foreign share of total agency MBS outstanding inched up marginally from 14.39 percent to 14.44 percent over 

this period while the dollar volume of foreign-owned MBS increased from $890 billion to $953 billion. The two 

largest holders, Taiwan and Japan added to their holdings, but Japan added more. Japan’s share of foreign-owned 

agency MBS increased from 24.9% to 26.6% over the 12-month period while Taiwan’s share rose from 25.5% to 

26.2%. As a result, Japan became the single largest foreign-owner of agency MBS for the first time since 2004. The 

third largest owner, China, saw its holdings decline marginally from $177.5 billion to $176.3 billion over this period, 

continuing a multi-year downward trend. 

Collectively, Japan, Taiwan and China held 71.3% of all foreign owned MBS as of Jun 2018, up slightly from 70.3% in 

Jun 2017. Asia’s share of foreign owned MBS inched up by 0.6 percent (79.1% to 79.7%), while Europe’s share 

declined from 12.6 to 12.2 percent.

Among the top 20 foreign owners, the countries with largest year over year increase in holdings were France 

(+49.1%), Canada (+30.7%), Luxembourg (+20.1%) and Japan (+14.6%). The countries with the largest declines were 

Saudi Arabia (-39%), Singapore (-29.1%), Switzerland (-21.7%) and United Kingdom (-10.1%). The table below 

summarizes the year-over-change for each top 20 holder. 

Foreign Holdings of US Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (Millions of dollars)

Some volatility of ownership among smaller holders notwithstanding, these numbers show a continuation of trends 

in recent years, i.e. overall foreign demand for agency MBS remains robust and concentrated among the largest 

holders. In the coming months, we will release a more comprehensive report on the foreign ownership of agency 

MBS using the newly available data.

Highlights this month:

• After a sustained multi-year increase, the median DTI for Ginnie Mae loans declined in March 2019, as a result of 

falling interest rates (page 29).

• The nonbank origination share for Ginnie Mae originations reached a new historical high of 85 percent in March 

2019. The nonbank origination share for FHA loans also reached a new historical high, at 90 percent (page 32).

• Prepayment speeds on recent origination cohorts jumped in April 2018, as mortgage rates dipped (page 43).

• New data indicates that the increase in foreign ownership of US Agency MBS from June 2017 to June 2018 was 

lead by purchases by Japan and Taiwan; since then, China and Taiwan have been the largest purchases (page 53).

HIGHLIGHTS

2016 2017 2018 % Change Jun 16 to Jun 17 % Change Jun 17 to Jun 18

Taiwan 206,954 227,073 249,773 9.7% 10.0%

China, mainland 186,993 177,546 176,345 -5.1% -0.7%

Japan 185,034 221,528 253,972 19.7% 14.6%

Ireland 37,695 33,663 37,832 -10.7% 12.4%

Korea, South 34,173 33,891 33,064 -0.8% -2.4%

Luxembourg 27,187 28,314 34,012 4.1% 20.1%

Bermuda 23,994 23,156 24,969 -3.5% 7.8%

Cayman Islands 22,815 24,897 24,384 9.1% -2.1%

Switzerland 11,717 13,867 10,863 18.3% -21.7%

Netherlands 11,471 11,462 11,437 -0.1% -0.2%

Malaysia 9,436 11,905 12,319 26.2% 3.5%

United Kingdom 7,516 9,809 8,819 30.5% -10.1%

Hong Kong 7,425 8,815 9,510 18.7% 7.9%

Saudi Arabia 6,780 4,642 2,830 -31.5% -39.0%

Mexico 4,975 5,223 5,416 5.0% 3.7%

Canada 4,373 3,646 4,766 -16.6% 30.7%

Kuwait 4,161 4,260 4,430 2.4% 4.0%

Singapore 3,927 4,615 3,270 17.5% -29.1%

Indonesia 3,537 3640 3530 2.9% -3.0%

France 2,666 3,037 4,527 13.9% 49.1%
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 28 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index- less 

than either the US Treasury share (39 percent) or the US Credit share (29 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

comprises the largest percent of US MBS (10 percent), while Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie Mac 30-year MBS 

comprise 8 percent and 6 percent of the market, respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the 

remaining balance (4 percent) of the US MBS share. US securities are the single largest contributor to the Barclays 

Global Aggregate, accounting for 40 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 12 percent of the global 

aggregate. 

39%

1%

29%

8%

10%

6%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

6%

25%

12%

1%

3%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2%

3% 1%

40%

31%

21%

1%

0.04% 2%

0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2019.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of March 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of March 2019.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2019.

US 10-year Treasury yields have generally been the highest in the developed world over the past few years, but since 

August 2018, have been neck-in-neck with Italy. In April 2019, yield on the US 10-year note increased 10 bps to 2.50 

percent, just below the 2.56 percent for the Italian 10-year note. In the UK, Germany, and Japan, 10-year 

government bond yields increased to 1.19, -0.04, and 0.01 percent, respectively. The hedged yield differential 

between the 10-year Treasury and foreign 10-year bonds, specifically JGBs and Bunds, now stand at -40 bps and -74 

bps, respectively, a decline of 4 and 13 bps, respectively since March. 

Yield(%)Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2019.

The nominal yield on both the current coupon GNMA II and GNMA I securities increased in April 2019. 

Current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 

10-year Treasury yields) by 66 and 67 bps on G2SF and GNSF, respectively, a widening of 7 and 8 bps since last 

month. Spreads on the Ginnie 4.0 and 4.5% coupons also widened.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2019.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look fair to attractive on a yield basis versus 

many sovereign alternatives. The figures below show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into Japanese 

yen outyield the JGB 5/10 blend by 21 and 22 bps respectively at the end of April, relatively consistent with levels 

in March.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2019.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look fair to attractive on a yield basis versus 

sovereign alternatives. The figures below show that, current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into euros outyield

the average of the German 5/10 blend by 2 and 3 bps respectively at the end of April, less than the 8-9 bps at 

the end of March 2019, and significantly lower than the 22-23 bps at the end of February.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of April 2019.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most securities with the same or longer durations, lower than 

corporate alternatives, including both the US and European investment grade and high yield indicies. The only 

security class with significantly more yield is the US high yield index, where duration, a measure of sensitivity to 

interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield asset class. Investors are unable to 

match the yield on Ginnie Mae securities, while preserving the full government guarantee, even if they extend 

their duration significantly.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.7 2.28

US 10y 8.5 2.50

GNMA II 4.0% 4.5 3.32

GNMA II 3.5% 5.2 3.16

JPY 5y 4.9 -0.17

JPY 10y 9.9 -0.05

GER 5y 4.9 -0.42

GER 10y 9.7 0.01

ITA 5y 4.1 1.45

ITA 10y 8.6 2.55

US credit 7.2 3.52

US credit >= A 7.3 3.32

US HY 3.4 6.12

Pan-Euro Corp 5.6 1.14

Pan-Euro HY 3.3 3.44

US 5y US 10y

G2 3.5%

G2 4.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.39 0.39 0.53 0.29 0.56 0.26

3 year 0.13 0.09 0.28 0.18 0.63 0.38

5 year 0.18 0.17 0.30 0.27 0.41 0.36

10 year 0.26 0.22 0.52 0.49 0.83 1.01

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.21 0.21 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.32

3 year 0.02 -0.02 0.17 0.24 0.52 0.44

5 year 0.12 0.10 0.23 0.32 0.34 0.41

10 year 0.22 0.18 0.49 0.51 0.79 1.02

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.76 0.96 1.15 0.75 1.72 1.43

3 year 0.64 0.96 1.09 0.81 1.21 1.11

5 year 0.59 0.95 1.12 0.98 1.57 1.30

10 year 0.68 1.00 1.27 1.21 1.90 2.60

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.28 0.22 0.30 0.47 0.22 0.22

3 year 0.03 -0.02 0.16 0.30 0.43 0.40

5 year 0.20 0.11 0.21 0.33 0.22 0.31

10 year 0.33 0.18 0.38 0.42 0.41 0.39

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of April 2019.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade has been slightly higher than the US Treasury 

index, but lower than many alternatives, including the US Investment-Grade Corporate and US and European 

High Yield indices. However, the standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has 

the least price volatility over a 3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of 

risk over the 10-year horizon is only marginally lower than most of the corporate indices, although a good bit 

higher than the US Treasury Index.
State of the US Housing Market

7.2%

3.9%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Feb-00

Aug-00

Feb-01

Aug-01

Feb-02

Aug-02

Feb-03

Aug-03

Feb-04

Aug-04

Feb-05

Aug-05

Feb-06

Aug-06

Feb-07

Aug-07

Feb-08

Aug-08

Feb-09

Aug-09

Feb-10

Aug-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Feb-12

Aug-12

Feb-13

Aug-13

Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Aug-17

Feb-18

Aug-18

Feb-19

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Black Knight HPI year-over-year Zillow HVI year-over-year

Sources: Black Knight, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of February 2019.

0.76%

0.69%

3.76%

1.96%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2Q051Q064Q063Q072Q081Q094Q093Q102Q111Q124Q123Q132Q141Q154Q153Q162Q171Q184Q18

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q4 2018.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquencies rates for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans, and VA loans remained stable in Q4 2018. GSE 

delinquencies remain slightly higher relative to 2006-2007, while FHA and VA delinquencies (which are higher than 

their GSE counterparts) are at levels lower than 2006-2007. After touching 6.5 percent in early 2018, year-overyear house price appreciation has slowed in recent months. It stood at 3.9 percent in Feb 2019 per Black Knight 

repeat sales index and at 7.2 percent per Zillow’s hedonic index. does not exhibit the same trend.
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of February2018. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month 

when HPI reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell 

to the lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 02/2019, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 48.8 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis 

peak valuation on a nominal basis by 10.7 percent. The picture is very different across states, with many states well in 

excess of the prior peak, while a number of states remain more than 11 percent below peak levels: Connecticut (15.7% 

below), Illinois (11.6% below), Maryland (11.6% below), Nevada (11.5% below), and Florida (11.2% below).

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 75.7% -25.6% 48.8% 3.9% 10.7%

Alabama 44.0% -16.1% 25.6% 6.2% 5.4%

Alaska 69.6% -3.2% 20.3% 1.6% 16.5%

Arizona 110.2% -48.0% 74.6% 6.2% -9.1%

Arkansas 41.7% -10.6% 21.8% 3.0% 8.9%

California 155.4% -43.4% 84.8% 1.3% 4.7%

Colorado 40.1% -12.7% 73.9% 4.6% 51.8%

Connecticut 92.4% -24.6% 11.9% 2.3% -15.7%

Delaware 94.6% -23.7% 27.0% 3.5% -3.1%

District of Columbia 174.9% -13.4% 51.5% 2.9% 31.2%

Florida 129.2% -47.0% 67.5% 5.1% -11.2%

Georgia 38.3% -32.2% 60.4% 6.2% 8.8%

Hawaii 161.9% -22.0% 47.1% 1.6% 14.6%

Idaho 71.6% -28.5% 70.8% 10.6% 22.2%

Illinois 61.7% -34.6% 35.2% 1.9% -11.6%

Indiana 21.4% -7.5% 30.6% 6.4% 20.8%

Iowa 28.3% -4.9% 22.5% 3.0% 16.5%

Kansas 34.7% -9.3% 39.3% 6.7% 26.4%

Kentucky 29.7% -7.5% 30.1% 3.9% 20.3%

Louisiana 48.7% -5.1% 21.3% 2.0% 15.2%

Maine 82.4% -12.5% 35.1% 9.1% 18.1%

Maryland 129.4% -28.5% 23.5% 1.9% -11.6%

Massachusetts 92.6% -22.7% 47.6% 3.4% 14.1%

Michigan 24.2% -39.7% 69.6% 5.2% 2.3%

Minnesota 66.3% -27.6% 48.9% 4.0% 7.8%

Mississippi 41.1% -13.6% 25.7% 5.7% 8.6%

Missouri 42.7% -14.6% 26.9% 4.7% 8.3%

Montana 81.5% -10.6% 42.5% 3.6% 27.4%

Nebraska 26.4% -6.8% 36.2% 4.0% 27.0%

Nevada 126.9% -59.4% 117.8% 8.8% -11.5%

New Hampshire 90.8% -23.5% 33.2% 4.0% 1.8%

New Jersey 118.0% -27.8% 23.7% 2.8% -10.7%

New Mexico 66.9% -16.1% 17.5% 2.5% -1.5%

New York 98.9% -15.2% 36.5% 3.9% 15.7%

North Carolina 40.6% -15.5% 31.9% 5.3% 11.5%

North Dakota 53.9% -4.0% 50.4% 0.4% 44.4%

Ohio 21.2% -18.3% 29.3% 4.0% 5.6%

Oklahoma 37.4% -2.4% 15.9% 2.9% 13.2%

Oregon 82.4% -27.9% 71.5% 3.6% 23.7%

Pennsylvania 70.4% -11.6% 20.3% 3.6% 6.4%

Rhode Island 131.4% -34.4% 44.0% 4.2% -5.5%

South Carolina 44.8% -19.2% 30.9% 4.5% 5.9%

South Dakota 45.2% -4.0% 40.5% 5.4% 34.9%

Tennessee 35.2% -11.8% 38.7% 5.4% 22.3%

Texas 33.2% -5.8% 47.6% 3.7% 39.1%

Utah 54.5% -21.8% 65.2% 7.0% 29.2%

Vermont 83.6% -7.5% 26.2% 5.4% 16.7%

Virginia 99.5% -22.7% 23.0% 2.4% -4.9%

Washington 85.5% -28.6% 79.5% 4.1% 28.1%

West Virginia 43.1% -5.9% 15.6% 2.7% 8.7%

Wisconsin 44.9% -16.3% 29.6% 4.9% 8.5%

Wyoming 77.3% -5.6% 24.5% 3.0% 17.6%
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State Ginnie Mae Share Ginnie Mae Average

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan 

Size (Thousands)

Ginnie Mae 

Share

Ginnie Mae Average 

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan Size 

(Thousands)

National 33.3% 216.6 231.4 30.6% 165.0 187.6

Alabama 43.8% 165.5 187.3 44.9% 128.6 151.2

Alaska 51.1% 285.6 250.5 51.5% 233.7 198.7

Arizona 31.9% 217.3 220.9 31.7% 166.2 177.4

Arkansas 43.1% 145.0 170.3 44.5% 110.8 136.9

California 27.6% 352.4 334.0 21.2% 270.2 266.8

Colorado 31.7% 296.5 284.4 27.4% 219.3 223.4

Connecticut 32.1% 216.6 226.2 29.4% 183.8 188.9

Delaware 37.3% 215.8 227.2 36.2% 180.8 184.0

District of Columbia 18.7% 421.5 359.9 16.1% 301.9 302.1

Florida 40.2% 211.7 211.6 35.1% 164.6 169.7

Georgia 39.7% 189.1 212.3 38.6% 142.9 168.9

Hawaii 37.7% 493.2 396.6 30.7% 392.7 315.2

Idaho 32.4% 209.2 214.0 31.9% 153.8 165.0

Illinois 27.1% 179.1 198.2 24.6% 141.9 160.5

Indiana 38.0% 145.6 160.7 37.6% 111.3 125.7

Iowa 27.4% 147.6 163.1 25.7% 114.2 131.1

Kansas 36.2% 157.2 177.1 35.5% 120.6 138.6

Kentucky 39.4% 152.4 168.4 38.9% 121.9 132.3

Louisiana 42.0% 171.7 194.5 41.8% 137.3 158.6

Maine 35.2% 187.7 203.7 32.2% 153.3 160.0

Maryland 43.9% 284.9 265.6 39.3% 233.1 218.8

Massachusetts 24.6% 299.1 284.6 19.3% 237.2 227.6

Michigan 25.6% 149.7 170.6 25.2% 113.6 134.4

Minnesota 24.1% 203.0 214.9 24.0% 156.6 170.1

Mississippi 50.2% 154.9 174.8 50.3% 120.0 141.6

Missouri 35.5% 154.6 173.6 34.9% 121.1 138.8

Montana 29.8% 222.9 225.8 29.6% 170.0 175.8

Nebraska 32.2% 167.9 174.0 32.8% 122.7 137.7

Nevada 33.6% 256.5 239.7 35.4% 187.3 189.7

New Hampshire 31.6% 238.3 228.5 29.1% 194.0 180.7

New Jersey 29.8% 254.5 264.6 27.3% 211.9 218.8

New Mexico 41.7% 182.7 190.5 42.5% 141.4 152.6

New York 26.8% 250.2 269.1 25.3% 186.6 214.0

North Carolina 34.0% 185.6 207.4 34.0% 141.7 165.5

North Dakota 29.3% 214.1 206.3 26.2% 167.9 165.9

Ohio 35.1% 145.2 157.9 35.9% 112.9 126.3

Oklahoma 44.9% 155.2 174.1 47.9% 118.9 139.7

Oregon 27.0% 264.1 264.9 23.6% 199.1 206.2

Pennsylvania 32.3% 168.3 195.4 32.5% 137.2 158.2

Rhode Island 38.5% 235.1 226.2 33.4% 187.6 182.0

South Carolina 39.3% 187.7 196.8 37.5% 147.2 160.1

South Dakota 37.3% 179.7 188.6 35.4% 143.4 149.4

Tennessee 39.9% 187.9 205.1 39.9% 138.9 163.2

Texas 34.7% 200.1 218.5 35.6% 141.7 174.3

Utah 28.4% 251.6 260.4 28.1% 190.8 205.8

Vermont 22.2% 190.1 200.1 19.8% 166.0 159.8

Virginia 45.1% 270.7 259.9 41.2% 223.8 216.4

Washington 30.2% 295.9 295.6 27.7% 219.5 227.1

West Virginia 49.1% 156.1 154.6 45.7% 126.7 127.1

Wisconsin 22.2% 169.9 178.2 20.8% 134.6 141.3

Wyoming 41.2% 217.1 217.6 40.0% 178.0 175.8

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of March 2019. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 

months, from April 2018 to March 2019.

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 30.6 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 33.3 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 16.1 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 51.5 percent in 

Alaska. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.
State of the US Housing Market

$10.9

$16.4

$27.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt, household mortgages Household equity Total Value

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Data as of Q4 2018.

$0.46

$0.53

$6.64

$3.25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Second Liens Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Inside Mortgage Finance, eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, and credit unions. Data as of Q4 2018.

The Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report has consistently indicated an increasing total value of the housing 

market driven by growing household equity since 2012, and 2018 Q4 was no different. Total mortgage debt 

outstanding increased slightly to $10.9 trillion and household equity increased slightly to $16.4 trillion, bringing 

the total value of the housing market to $27.2 trillion, 13 percent higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Agency 

MBS make up 61.0 percent of the total mortgage market, private-label securities make up 4.3 percent, and 

unsecuritized first liens at the GSEs, commercial banks, savings institutions, and credit unions make up 29.8 

percent. Second liens comprise the remaining 4.9 percent of the total.
State of the US Housing Market

As of March 2019, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $6.68 trillion: 43.0 percent Fannie Mae, 

27.5 percent Freddie Mac, and 29.5 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than Freddie 

Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA have grown very rapidly post-crisis. FHA comprises 59.8 

percent of total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 34.3 percent.

$2.87

$1.84

$1.97

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Mar-01

Sep-01

Mar-02

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

$1.2

$0.7

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Mar-01

Sep-01

Mar-02

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of March 2019.
State of the US Housing Market

$0.74

$0.37

$0.03

$0.49

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2018.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

First Lien Origination Share

First lien originations totaled $1.63 trillion in 2018, down slightly from 2017, as higher interest rates curtailed 

refinance activity. The share of bank portfolio originations was 30.0 percent in the 2018, slightly below the 2017 

level. The GSE share was 45.7 percent, on par with 2017. The FHA/VA share remained constant at 22.9 percent.

Private-label securities comprised 1.6 percent of originations, higher than the 2017 share of 0.6 percent.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2018. 

30.0%

1.6%

22.9%

45.7%
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 YTD $45.7 $30.8 $2.6 $79.1

2019 YTD % Change YOY -10.9% -25.2% -36.2% -18.1%

2019 Ann. $182.7 $123.3 $10.2 $316.3

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 YTD $90.3 $66.4 $156.7 $79.1 $235.8

2019 YTD % Change YOY -26.8% 3.5% -16.4% -18.1% -17.0%

2019 Ann. $361.1 $265.6 $626.7 $316.3 $943.0

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of March 2019.

Agency gross issuance was $235.8 billion in the first three months of 2019, down 17.0 percent compared to the 

same period in 2018. Ginnie Mae gross issuance was down by 18.1 percent and GSE gross issuance was down by 

16.4 percent. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA was down by 10.9 percent and VA origination was down by 25.2 

percent. The broad decline in origination volume is the result of higher interest rates curtailing refinance volume, 

particularly in January and February.
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 YTD $10.3 $9.5 $0.1 $19.9

2019 YTD % Change YOY 72.4% -33.4% -87.4% -5.2%

2019 Ann. $41.3 $38.1 $0.4 $79.8

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $57.5 $11.6 $69.1 $87.9 $157.0

2014 $0.5 $30.0 $30.5 $61.6 $92.1

2015 $10.2 $65.0 $75.1 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $68.6 $66.8 $135.5 $125.3 $260.8

2017 $90.2 $78.2 $168.5 $131.3 $299.7

2018 $79.4 $68.4 $147.7 $113.9 $261.6

2019 YTD $8.7 $16.3 $25.0 $19.9 $44.9

2019 YTD % Change YOY -65.8% 190.2% -19.2% -5.2% -13.5%

2019 Ann. $34.6 $65.3 $99.9 $79.8 $179.7

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian 

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of March 2019.

Agency net issuance totaled $44.9 billion in the first three months of 2019, down 13.5 percent compared to the same period 

in 2018. Ginnie Mae net issuance was $25.0 billion, comprising 55.7 percent of total agency net issuance. Ginnie Mae net 

issuance was down 5.2 percent compared to the same period in 2019. Ginnie Mae net issuance in the first quarter of 2019 

was comprised of 47.7 percent VA and 51.8 percent FHA. 
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of March 2019.

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates have risen, rising 

when interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the 

same month in previous years. March 2019 gross agency issuance of $83.5 billion is slightly below the March 

2018 level of $85.9 billion. 

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-16 $35.6 $22.5 $32.5 $90.6 -$0.6 $1.0 $7.3 $7.8

Feb-16 $32.4 $21.2 $30.5 $84.1 $2.4 $3.1 $8.4 $13.9

Mar-16 $39.7 $27.5 $32.9 $100.1 $7.9 $8.2 $9.6 $25.8

Apr-16 $43.8 $26.2 $40.1 $110.1 $0.8 -$0.2 $8.8 $9.4

May-16 $44.2 $29.9 $41.6 $115.6 $2.4 $4.4 $11.4 $18.3

Jun-16 $46.7 $30.1 $43.9 $120.8 $2.7 $3.0 $11.9 $17.7

Jul-16 $49.8 $35.3 $46.1 $131.1 $2.3 $6.3 $10.8 $19.4

Aug-16 $54.9 $37.9 $46.7 $139.5 $10.4 $11.0 $13.8 $35.2

Sep-16 $65.8 $44.0 $52.5 $162.4 $8.7 $9.0 $12.5 $30.2

Oct-16 $66.0 $35.9 $47.4 $149.3 $11.8 $2.7 $9.3 $24.5

Nov-16 $48.8 $40.2 $47.2 $136.3 -$3.5 $7.9 $10.3 $14.8

Dec-16 $72.7 $40.5 $46.8 $160.0 $23.3 $10.4 $10.8 $44.6

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $136.6 $10.3 $10.7 $10.3 $31.9

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $98.1 $3.1 $6.5 $9.2 $18.9

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $95.2 $10.3 $6.2 $9.6 $26.3

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $97.0 $4.8 $0.4 $11.7 $17.3

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $99.3 $7.6 $2.7 $13.1 $23.6

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $110.7 $8.3 $2.4 $13.2 $24.1

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $113.5 $5.8 $3.5 $12.1 $21.5

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $121.1 $12.0 $6.7 $15.6 $33.9

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $115.5 $7.4 $3.8 $10.5 $21.7

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $115.9 $6.4 $12.5 $10.7 $29.6

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $118.5 $4.6 $13.6 $8.2 $26.4

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $111.5 $9.6 $8.2 $6.8 $24.6

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.4 $0.3 $7.8 $20.6

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.0 $2.3 $7.1 $17.4

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $6.1 $14.0

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.1 $9.1 $16.8

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $4.5 $7.2 $10.6 $22.4

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.2 $6.8 $10.5 $19.5

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $10.7 $18.6

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $14.9 $7.9 $12.8 $35.6

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.7 $6.2 $9.1 $21.0

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $10.1 $7.6 $12.1 $29.7

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $2.6 $10.8 $9.6 $22.9

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $8.4 $23.0

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.5 $2.5 $9.5 $17.5

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.2 $3.6 $4.6 $9.5

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.9 $10.3 $5.8 $18.0

Monthly Agency Issuance
US Agency Market, Originations

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Mortgage Rate

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance

Freddie Mac (left) Fannie Mae (left) Ginnie Mae (left) Mortgage rate (right)

27.6%

38.5%

0% 0.01%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. Data as of March 2019.

The Ginnie Mae refi share stood at 30 percent in March 2019, below the 40 percent share for both Fannie Mae and 

Freddie Mac. Within Ginnie Mae, VA had the highest refi share at 39 percent in March 2019, followed by FHA’s 28 

percent. In the spring and summer of 2018, refi share for all agencies fell sharply due to rising interest rates and 

seasonal upticks in purchase activity. The refi share stabilized after the summer surge in purchase activity ended; it 

ticked up in early 2019 as rates trended down.
Credit Box

39.5%

47.4%

71.3%

53.8%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jul-13 Nov-13Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18Mar-19

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 71.3 percent in March 2019, just below the 

72.4 percent historical high reached in May 2018. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share 

of the Ginnie Mae purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting 

for 47.4 percent and 39.5 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase originations respectively. The 

bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated in March 2019, the average first-time homebuyer was 

more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a much higher 

LTV and similar DTI.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 237,625 264,657 255,658 269,560 208,614 251,108 227,459 262,801 

Credit Score 734.9 750.3 744.4 758.1 677.1 697.0 708.4 738.3

LTV (%) 88.7 79.9 84.5 77.5 96.9 95.6 91.8 83.4

DTI (%) 37.0 37.5 35.0 36.0 42.0 43.1 39.0 38.5

Loan Rate (%) 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.7

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of March 2019.
Credit Box

82.8%

56.4%

77.3%

71.3%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Jul-13 Nov-13Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18Mar-19

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Purchase Only Loans Breakdown by Source

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and 

the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 77.3 percent of FHA loans, 56.4 percent of VA loans and 82.8 percent of 

other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in March 2019. The bottom table shows that based on 

mortgages originated in March 2019, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat 

buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, higher LTV and lower DTI.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 204,900 217,670 247,027 296,129 141,428 154,070 208,614 251,108 

Credit Score 667.2 668.9 696.7 725.7 692.9 696.1 677.1 697.0

LTV (%) 95.5 94.0 99.8 96.9 99.0 98.7 96.9 95.6

DTI (%) 43.4 44.2 41.3 42.9 35.2 35.9 42.0 43.1

Loan Rate (%) 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2017.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 503 524 587 682 774 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 570 615 682 752 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (682) is equal to the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (682).
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 204,375 641 680 731 775 797 724 

Fannie 63,935 680 711 750 782 800 744 

Freddie 63,789 694 725 761 788 802 754 

Ginnie 76,651 620 642 674 721 767 683 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 115,831 640 679 724 767 793 719 

Fannie 40,723 659 692 733 772 795 729 

Freddie 44,048 680 711 748 780 799 743 

Ginnie 31,060 604 635 670 710 754 673 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 320,206 641 680 728 772 796 722 

Fannie 104,658 670 703 744 779 798 738 

Freddie 107,837 687 719 756 785 801 749 

Ginnie 107,711 615 641 673 717 764 680 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 76,651 620 642 674 721 767 683 

FHA 46,109 612 635 662 696 736 668 

VA 23,707 629 660 708 762 792 709 

Other 6,835 637 657 689 728 763 693 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 31,060 604 635 670 710 754 673 

FHA 16,732 598 627 658 690 726 659 

VA 14,257 615 648 688 734 772 688 

Other 71 647 667 725 800 800 725 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 107,711 615 641 673 717 764 680 

FHA 62,841 608 633 661 694 733 665 

VA 37,964 624 655 700 752 787 701 

Other 6,906 637 657 689 729 764 694 

March 2019 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of March 2019.

In March 2019, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 673 versus 744 Fannie and 756 for Freddie. Note that the 

FICO score for the 10th percentile was 615 for Ginnie Mae, versus 670 for Fannie and 687 for Freddie. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 661, VA loans have a median FICO score of 700 and 

other loans have a median FICO score of 689.
March 2019 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 205,905 70.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 87.2 

Fannie 63,997 66.0 80.0 88.0 95.0 97.0 83.6 

Freddie 65,094 60.0 75.0 80.0 90.0 95.0 79.8 

Ginnie 76,814 93.3 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.1 96.5 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 117,175 45.0 60.0 75.0 82.1 94.6 71.0 

Fannie 40,727 40.0 55.0 69.0 78.0 80.0 64.9 

Freddie 45,090 41.0 57.0 70.0 79.0 80.0 65.6 

Ginnie 31,358 70.2 82.3 86.5 98.1 100.0 86.9 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 323,080 56.0 74.0 83.0 96.5 98.7 81.3 

Fannie 104,724 50.0 68.0 80.0 90.0 97.0 76.3 

Freddie 110,184 50.0 66.0 80.0 80.0 95.0 74.0 

Ginnie 108,172 83.0 92.9 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.7 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 76,814 93.3 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.1 96.5 

FHA 46,197 93.3 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.2 

VA 23,747 92.7 100.0 100.0 102.2 103.0 98.5 

Other 6,870 94.5 98.6 100.8 101.0 101.0 98.9 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 31,358 70.2 82.3 86.5 98.1 100.0 86.9 

FHA 16,654 67.7 80.3 86.5 86.5 97.1 82.9 

VA 14,629 73.0 86.5 96.9 100.0 102.8 91.4 

Other 75 60.9 77.0 89.5 95.0 98.7 82.7 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 108,172 83.0 92.9 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.7 

FHA 62,851 82.2 88.9 96.5 96.5 96.5 91.9 

VA 38,376 82.4 95.0 100.0 101.2 103.0 95.8 

Other 6,945 94.1 98.5 100.7 101.0 101.0 98.7 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of March 2019.

In March 2019, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 80 percent for both 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 101 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 95-97 percent for Fannie 

Mae and Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 100.0 for VA and 100.7 for 

other programs. 
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 205,615 25.0 32.0 39.9 45.9 50.0 38.5 

Fannie 63,996 24.0 31.0 39.0 44.0 48.0 37.0 

Freddie 65,091 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.4 

Ginnie 76,528 29.5 36.0 43.0 49.5 54.4 42.3 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 110,900 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.6 49.0 37.1 

Fannie 40,438 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 48.0 36.7 

Freddie 44,928 21.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 46.0 34.7 

Ginnie 25,534 28.3 35.4 43.4 49.8 54.6 42.2 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 316,515 24.0 31.0 39.0 45.0 49.7 38.0 

Fannie 104,434 24.0 31.0 38.0 44.0 48.0 36.9 

Freddie 110,019 22.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 47.0 35.1 

Ginnie 102,062 29.2 35.9 43.0 49.6 54.5 42.3 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 76,528 29.5 36.0 43.0 49.5 54.4 42.3 

FHA 46,197 31.2 37.8 44.5 50.5 54.7 43.5 

VA 23,514 28.4 35.2 42.6 49.4 54.9 42.0 

Other 6,817 26.5 31.0 36.2 40.0 42.8 35.3 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 25,534 28.3 35.4 43.4 49.8 54.6 42.2 

FHA 14,108 29.3 36.7 44.4 50.4 54.9 43.0 

VA 11,381 27.3 34.1 42.2 49.0 54.1 41.4 

Other 45 16.4 26.3 32.1 38.9 40.8 32.0 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 102,062 29.2 35.9 43.0 49.6 54.5 42.3 

FHA 60,305 30.7 37.5 44.5 50.5 54.8 43.4 

VA 34,895 28.0 34.9 42.5 49.2 54.6 41.8 

Other 6,862 26.5 31.0 36.2 40.0 42.8 35.3 

March 2019 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of March 2019.

In March 2019, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 43.0 percent, considerably higher than the 

36-38 percent median DTI for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 54.5 percent, 

also much higher than the 47-48 percent DTI for the GSEs. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio 

was 44.5 percent, versus 42.5 percent for VA and 36.2 percent for other lending programs. 
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

744

756

673

728

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jul-13 Nov-13Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18Mar-19

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of March 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in March 2019 was 728, slightly higher than in February 

2019. The figures show that the median FICO score for Ginnie Mae borrowers has always been considerably 

lower than for GSE borrowers. Since early 2017, the median FICO score for Fannie and Ginnie originations has 

trended down while Freddie’s median FICO is slightly up. The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE 

borrowers is wider in purchase loans than in refi loans.
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

LTV Ratio for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 80 percent 

LTVs for the GSEs. Through time, both Ginnie Mae and GSE refinances have LTVs about 6-16 points lower 

than their purchase counterparts. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of February 

2019.

83

80
Credit Box: Historical

36.0

38.0

43.0

39.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

DTI Ratio for Refinance Loans 

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Debt-to-income Ratio

DTI Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note:Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note:Data as of March 2019.

Median debt-to-income ratios on Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher 

than for the GSEs. DTIs have been inching up over the past two years for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with 

the movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are very typical in an environment of rising 

interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies saw a decline in DTIs in March 2019 driven by lower 

interest rates.
95%

85%

67%

49%

35%

95%

82%

57%

40%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

94%

86%

68%

49%

35%

95%

81%

59%

40%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Jan 2017−Mar2017 Jan 2019−Mar 2019

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

97% 96%

91%

83%

70%

98%

93%

80%

61%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In the first quarter of 2019, 

Ginnie Mae accounted for 95 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, compared to 

just 33 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI bucket looks a 

lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In Q1 2019, Ginnie Mae’s share of issuance was higher for DTIs of 45 

and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share of loans with a DTI of 45 and above 

and a FICO of 680-700 was 80 percent; it was 57-59 percent for the same FICO in the lower DTI buckets. 

Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear that GSEs have stepped up their higher LTV lending in all but 

the lowest FICO buckets, taking market share from Ginnie Mae. 
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

January 2017-March 2017

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.8% 6.0% 3.4% 8.3% 10.0% 30.4%

35 −45 4.9% 10.3% 5.6% 12.5% 10.4% 43.7%

≥ 45 3.3% 7.8% 3.7% 6.8% 4.3% 25.8%

All 11.0% 24.1% 12.7% 27.5% 24.6% 100.0%

January 2019-March 2019

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.8% 4.2% 2.4% 6.3% 7.8% 23.6%

35 −45 5.7% 8.8% 4.7% 11.2% 9.8% 40.1%

≥ 45 5.7% 9.6% 4.6% 9.7% 6.8% 36.3%

All 14.2% 22.7% 11.6% 27.2% 24.4% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

January 2017-March 2017 70.1% 13.0% 28.7%

January 2019-March 2019 69.3% 20.3% 36.5%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 69.3 percent of its Q1 2019 issuances having LTVs of 95 or above, 

compared to 20.3 percent for the GSEs. The GSEs have increased their high-LTV lending share from 13.0 percent 

in Q1 2017, while Ginnie Mae has seen a slight decline, down from 70.1 percent Q1 2017. As home prices and 

interest rates have increased, the share of high-DTI lending (loans with DTI ≥ 45) has increased across the FICO 

spectrum.
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of March 2019.

The nonbank origination share has been generally increasing since 2013. In March 2019, the Ginnie Mae 

nonbank originator share increased to 85 percent, the highest recorded share. This is considerably higher than 

the GSEs’ 43-61 percent share. For Ginnie Mae, the nonbank share for refis was higher than for purchases. 

The differences were more modest for the GSEs.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

85%

62%

61%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of March 2019.

In March 2019, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share stood at 85 percent, a historical high. The nonbank originator 

share for FHA also hit a new historical high at 90 percent. The nonbank originator share for VA was 79 percent, 

and the nonbank originator share for other loans, which can fluctuate quite a bit month to month, increased to 

85 percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

90%

85%

79%
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of March 2019. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of March 2019. 

728

748

714

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019. 

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

All Median FICO

Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. The median GSE and the median Ginnie Mae 

FICO scores for loans originated by nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, both bank 

and nonbank FICOs have declined since 2014 with a further relaxation in FICOs since early 2017. In contrast, within 

the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations are flat since 2014 while nonbank FICOs have declined. This 

largely reflects the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks. 
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTV ratios for loans originated by nonbanks are similar to that of their bank counterparts, while the median 

DTIs for nonbank loans are higher, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in this dimension as well as in 

the FICO dimension. Note that since early 2017, there has been a measurable increase in DTIs. This is true for both 

bank and non-bank originations. Rising DTIs are to be expected amid rising rates and strong house price appreciation. 

DTIs trended down in Mar 2019 as rates fell.
650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of March 2019.

The FICO scores for Ginnie Mae nonbank originators ticked up slightly, while FICO scores for bank originations 

fell in March 2019. The spread in the FICO scores between banks and nonbanks has been increasing since 

2013. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent in all programs backing Ginnie Mae securities: 

FHA, VA, and Other.

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2019.
90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae VA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median LTV VA Bank Median LTV

VA Nonbank Median LTV

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of March 2019.

An analysis of the loans backing Ginnie Mae origination indicates that there are virtually no differences in 

median LTV ratios between bank originated loans and nonbank originated loans. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae LTV: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Ginnie Mae FHA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median LTV FHA Bank Median LTV

FHA Nonbank Median LTV

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Ginnie Mae Other LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median LTV Other Bank Median LTV

Other Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2019.
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of March 2019.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA loans experienced notable increases since early 2017 for both 

bank and nonbank originations, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are expected 

in a rising rate environment. Ginnie Mae DTIs trended down in Mar 2019 amid lower rates.

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2019.
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of February 2019.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Wells Fargo $271,453 15.6% 15.6%

2 Lakeview $180,674 10.4% 26.0%

3 PennyMac $176,229 10.1% 36.1%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $119,826 6.9% 43.0%

5 Nationstar $94,667 5.4% 48.5%

6 Quicken Loans $65,980 3.8% 52.2%

7 US Bank $60,855 3.5% 55.7%

8 JPMorgan Chase $55,702 3.2% 59.0%

9 Caliber Home Loans $46,636 2.7% 61.6%

10 Carrington Home Mortgage $44,005 2.5% 64.2%

11 USAA Federal Savings Bank $37,606 2.2% 66.3%

12 Newrez $28,327 1.6% 68.0%

13 Navy Federal Credit Union $24,784 1.4% 69.4%

14 Midfirst Bank $23,827 1.4% 70.7%

15 The Money Source $21,776 1.3% 72.0%

16 Amerihome Mortgage $21,425 1.2% 73.2%

17 Suntrust $18,600 1.1% 74.3%

18 Ditech Financial $18,171 1.0% 75.3%

19 Home Point Financial $17,123 1.0% 76.3%

20 Branch Banking and Trust $16,280 0.9% 77.3%

21 Guild Mortgage $15,958 0.9% 78.2%

22 Roundpoint $15,131 0.9% 79.1%

23 Pingora $14,819 0.9% 79.9%

24 Loan Depot $14,186 0.8% 80.7%

25 Flagstar Bank $13,253 0.8% 81.5%

26 Ocwen $13,221 0.8% 82.2%

27 Bank of America $12,360 0.7% 83.0%

28 Citizens Bank $11,965 0.7% 83.6%

29 PNC $11,067 0.6% 84.3%

30 Planet Home Lending $9,403 0.5% 84.8%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of March 2019, over half (52.2 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 firms 

collectively own 84.8 percent. Nineteen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 11 are depository 

institutions. 
63.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In December 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. Although Wells Fargo is still the largest player, its portfolio has shrunk 

to $271 billion. Lakeview, PennyMac, Freedom Home Mortgage, and Nationstar (all nonbanks) make up the 

remainder of the top five largest holders of MSRs, owning $180 billion, $176 billion, $119 billion, and $95 billion 

respectively as of March 2019. JPMorgan Chase is no longer in the top five. As of March 2019, nonbanks 

collectively owned servicing rights for 62.8 percent of all outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by 

Ginnie Mae. In December 2013, the nonbank share was much smaller at 27.7 percent. 

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$271,453

$180,674

$176,229

$119,836

$94,667

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

1. Wells Fargo 2. Lakeview

3. PennyMac 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

UPB ($ millions) 5. Nationstar
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2019.

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae securities were lower than on GSE securities from 2011 through early-2013, but 

have been higher since. These increased Ginnie speeds reflect the growing share of VA loans, which tend to 

prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA puts fewer restrictions on streamlined refinances, 

and unlike GSE streamline refinances, requires no credit report and no appraisal. Some of the upfront mortgage 

insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. 

With the increase in interest rates since November 2016, the prepayment speeds for all agencies have slowed 

down considerably. Over the past 18 months, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economical 

to refinance, the small month to month variation in speeds reflects seasonality, changes in day count and changes 

in rates. With the drop in rates in early 2019, we haven seen some pick up in prepayment activity in recent 

months, but expect it to remain muted as long as mortgage rates remain above 4 percent.

12%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

15%

12%

11%
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

The 2015 Ginnie II 3.5s and the 2016 Ginnie II 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have 

prepaid consistently faster than their conventional counterparts. 2015 and 2016 originations are more heavily 

VA loans than the 2011 origination shown on the preceding page. VA loans prepay faster than either FHA or GSE 

loans. The FHA streamlined programs are likely another contributor to the faster speeds.

After a sharp mortgage rate increase in November 2016, the prepayment speeds of Ginnie Mae and 

conventional loans both fell dramatically. Over the past year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it 

non-economic to refinance, the muted month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day 

count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With the drop in rates in early 2019, we haven seen some pick up 

in prepayment activity in recent months, but expect it to remain muted as long as mortgage rates remain above 4 

percent.

13%

9%

15%

11%
Prepayments

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Ginnie Mae securities season more slowly than their conventional counterparts; they generally have lower 

prepayments in the early months. The charts below show the behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-

issued 4.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years. Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s 

have been prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts since late 2017, due primarily to fast VA 

prepayment speeds. In comparison, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s have, for the most part prepaid slow than their 

conventional counterparts, but have been a few CPR faster the past few months. Speeds for2018 4.0s have 

been trending upward since the end of 2018, and increased sharply in April 2019.

13%

9%

19% 

17%

16%
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

The charts below show the prepayment speeds by loan age for 2017 Ginnie II 4.0s and 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s—the 

cohorts 50 basis points above the largest coupon cohort for those years. Prepayment speeds on the 2017 

Ginnie II 4.0s jumped up sharply at the 7-9 month loan age, reflecting abuse of the VA Streamlined Refi 

program (IRRRL). The 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s do not show increased speeds until the 9-10 month point; reflecting 

both the effect of lower rates and the actions taken by both Ginnie Mae and the VA in H1 2018 to curb this 

abuse. Ginnie Mae actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA prepayment speeds are 

especially high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling 

requirements so that if loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is 

ineligible for securitization. In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the lender to 

show the borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance.

17.7%

15.6%

13.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR

Loan age

32.6%

17.6%

15.7%
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.56

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$55.0

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Mar-19

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile in recent months. The March 2019 volume increased to 

$0.56 billion, near the lower end of the range in recent years. Issuance has been declining since early 2018 

largely due to the implementation of the new, lower principal limit factors. In March 2019, outstanding reverse 

mortgage securities totaled $55.0 billion, lower compared to recent past, reflecting a lower volume of new 

issuances. 
Multifamily Market

$0.8

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Mar-19

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$119.4

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Mar-19

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volume in March 2019 totaled $0.8 billion, below average issuance levels over 

the past 18 months and a decline from last month. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled $119.4 billion in 

March.
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

$250 

$591 

$38 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.76%

3.79%

0.41% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume was $250 billion/day on average 2019 YTD, more robust than in the 2014-2018 

period. Agency MBS turnover in 2019 YTD also has been slightly higher than the 2014-2018 period; in the first 

four months of 2019, average daily MBS turnover was 3.76 percent, above the 2018 average of 3.39 percent. 

Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are down from their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is 

miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.
Market Conditions

$221.5

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$62.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

Dealer net positions in agency MBS are down from the 2012-2013 time period, but remain within historic 

ranges. Gross dealer positions are likely to have fallen more than net positions. The volume of repurchase 

activity is up slightly from the near 13-year low in 2017. The large decline through time reflects banks cutting 

back on lower margin businesses. 
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2018.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (18 

percent), commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (12 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares 

are a fraction of what they once were. 

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2018.

73.0%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2006Q4 2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2019.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, fewer agency notes and bonds are required to 

fund that activity, hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. As of Q4 2018, the MBS share of total 

agency debt stood at 73.0 percent. Commercial banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their 

nearly $2.0 trillion in holdings as of the end of April 2019, $1.4 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Mar-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24

Largest Domestic 

Banks 1,282.7 1,318.7 1,319.8 1,332.8 1,360.1 1,389.4 1,399.0 1,412.8 1,416.8 1,428.9 1,434.5 1,441.1

Small Domestic 

Banks 480.1 486.0 484.8 482.2 485.3 490.5 491.8 494.7 496.4 497.3 499.4 501.6

Foreign Related 

Banks 32.6 23.0 23.5 24.6 27.7 25.4 25.4 25.6 27.0 26.3 23.9 28.1

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1,795.4 1,827.7 1,828.1 1,839.6 1,873.1 1,905.3 1,916.2 1,933.1 1,940.2 1,952.5 1,957.8 1,970.8
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $315,763 $185,917 $118,080 $11,650 $116 17.4%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $238,434 $166,422 $65,471 $3,781 $2,760 13.1%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $93,937 $61,690 $23,431 $296 $8,520 5.2%

4 U S. Bancorp. $79,863 $48,123 $12,299 $19,441 $0 4.4%

5 Charles Schwab Bank $79,492 $38,334 $15,571 $25,587 $1 4.4%

6 Capital One Financial Corporation $66,307 $52,145 $4,230 $7,272 $2,660 3.7%

7 Citigroup Inc. $65,827 $28,208 $14,551 $22,121 $947 3.6%

8 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $51,632 $30,689 $1,723 $17,794 $1,426 2.8%

9 PNC Bank, National Association $46,819 $37,955 $3,736 $2,764 $2,365 2.6%

10 Branch Banking and Trust Company $37,433 $12,083 $15,350 $7,397 $2,603 2.1%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $36,720 $12,175 $5,865 $18,175 $505 2.0%

12 E*TRADE Bank $23,817 $10,707 $7,298 $5,812 $0 1.3%

13 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $23,627 $7,173 $6,314 $10,138 $3 1.3%

14 KeyBank National Association $23,311 $1,682 $898 $20,731 $0 1.3%

15 SunTrust Bank $23,161 $10,942 $3,657 $8,561 $0 1.3%

16 Morgan Stanley $22,797 $11,612 $11,185 $0 $0 1.3%

17 Ally Bank $20,098 $11,126 $3,341 $3,079 $2,552 1.1%

18 The Northern Trust Company $17,468 $10,356 $4,365 $2,745 $2 1.0%

19 MUFG Union Bank $16,899 $5,323 $3,925 $6,787 $865 0.9%

20 Regions Bank $16,247 $2,409 $4,593 $9,245 $0 0.9%

Total Top 20 $1,299,653 $745,069 $325,884 $203,376 $25,325 71.7%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2018.

Out of the $1.8 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q4 2018, $1.4 trillion was agency pass-through: 

$980.6 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $380.4 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $419.6 billion was 

agency CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $37.38 billion. After three quarters of successive decline, MBS 

holdings at banks and thrifts increased in Q4, 2018. This increase came from Ginnie Mae and GSE pass-throughs, as 

well as agency CMOs. 

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

1Q16 $1,660.58 $1,133.29 $833.25 $300.04 $448.63 $10.27 $68.39 

2Q 16 $1,684.33 $1,169.67 $867.64 $302.03 $440.25 $9.11 $65.29 

3Q16 $1,732.36 $1,227.52 $924.81 $302.71 $435.77 $7.90 $61.17 

4Q16 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01 

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04 

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69 

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings
MBS Ownership

$100.2

$400.3

$601.6

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of Q32018.

14.9%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

Foreign investors held 14.9 percent of agency MBS in Q4 2018, up from a low of 11.8 percent in Q1 2014. For 

the month of January 2019, this represents $100.2 billion in Agency MBS; $400.3 billion held by foreign private 

institutions and $601.6 billion held by foreign official investors. 
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of January 2019.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise over 70 percent 

of all foreign holdings. Between June 2018 and January 2019, we estimate China has increased their agency 

MBS holdings by $21.9 .0 billion, Taiwan has increased their holdings by $11.6 billion, and Japan has increased 

their holdings by $3.6 billion.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Jan-19

Japan 257,547 254,511 262,772 261,455 -3,036 8,261 -1,317

Taiwan 250,009 250,639 261,231 261,674 630 10,592 443

China 180,635 190,203 188,921 202,985 9,568 -1,282 14,064

Ireland 46,817 48,220 48,045 46,539 1,403 -175 -1,506

Luxembourg 36,372 38,800 50,079 51,171 2,428 11,279 1,092

South Korea 44,039 43,944 44,735 43,027 -95 791 -1,708

Bermuda 27,866 27,610 28,004 27,664 -256 394 -340

Cayman Islands 31,017 31,638 31,379 31,900 621 -259 521

Malaysia 12,710 12,874 12,671 12,624 164 -203 -47

Netherlands 11,995 12,229 9,618 9,586 234 -2,611 -32

Rest of World 125,197 128,761 130,294 130,887 3,564 1,533 593

Total 1,024,200 1,039,429 1,067,749 1,079,512 15,229 28,320 11,763

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Jan-19

Japan 253,972 250,853 258,898 257,525 -3,119 8,045 -1,374

Taiwan 249,773 250,398 260,975 261,415 625 10,578 439

China 176,345 185,814 184,272 198,268 9,469 -1,541 13,996

Ireland 37,832 39,027 38,309 36,661 1,195 -718 -1,648

Luxembourg 34,012 36,385 47,522 48,576 2,373 11,136 1,055

South Korea 33,064 32,715 32,843 30,961 -349 128 -1,882

Bermuda 24,969 24,646 24,865 24,479 -323 219 -386

Cayman Islands 24,384 24,851 24,192 24,608 467 -660 416

Malaysia 12,319 12,474 12,247 12,194 155 -227 -53

Netherlands 11,437 11,658 9,013 8,973 221 -2,645 -41

Rest of World 95,510 98,386 98,126 98,248 2,876 -260 123

Total 953,612 967,205 991,261 1,001,906 13,593 24,056 10,645
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

Mar-19

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of March 2019.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of March 2019.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

The Federal Reserve is actively winding down its mortgage portfolio, absorbing very little new issuance. During 

the period October 2014-September 2017, the Fed ended its purchase program, but was reinvesting proceeds 

from mortgage and agency debt into the mortgage market, absorbing 20-30 percent of agency gross issuance. In 

October 2017, the Fed began to taper their mortgage holdings, initially letting securities run off at the rate of $4 

billion per month in Q4, 2017; $8 billion per month in Q1, 2018; $12 billion per month in Q2; $16 billion per 

month in Q3; and $20 billion per month ins Q4, 2018 and thereafter. With the Fed now at its maximum taper, Fed 

absorption of gross issuance is 0.4 percent. 
All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise noted. The

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

The views expressed in this material are the views of the staff of the Urban Institute's Housing Finance 

Policy Center and State Street Global Advisors as of May 20th, 2019 and are subject to change based

on market and other conditions. The views should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, 

or its funders. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking

statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and

actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.   

© 2019 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

 2547709.1.1.GBL.INST 

Expiration Date: 05/31/2020

Disclosures