8

- E

- i APPENDIX 8

- E. USER I NSTRUCTIONS FOR CAC LIFE CYCLE COST SPREADSHEET

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8

- E.1 Introduction

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 8

- E

- 1 8

- E.2 User Instructions for LLC Spreadsheet

................................ ................................ .. 8

- E

- 1

LIST OF TABLES

Table 8

- E.2.1 Description of Tabs in the Life

- Cycle Cost Spreadsheet

.............................. 8

- E

- 18

- E

- 1 APPENDIX 8

- E

. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR CAC LIFE CYCLE COST SPREADSHEET

8

- E.1 Introduction
Appendix 8

- E contains instructions to examine and reproduce the detailed results of the life

- cycle cost ( LCC ) and payback period ( PBP ) analyses for Residential Central Air Conditioners (CACs) and Central Heat Pumps (CHPs) . This analysis is performed using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S. Department of Energy’s website at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/central _ac_hp.html

.
8

- E.2 User Instructions for LLC Spreadsheet
The spreadsheet is called “ CAC_LCC_FR_4

- 25

- 2011_Post.xls ”. It allows the user to perform LCC analyses of up to seven product classes of CAC and CHP equipment, of which five are active

— Split

- System A/C (separated into Coil

- Only and Blower

- Coil), Split System HP, Single

- Package A/C, Single Package HP, and SDHV. T o fully execute in sensitivity mode the spreadshee t requires only Microsoft Excel software . To fully execute in uncertainty mode
, the model also requires commercially

- available Crystal Ball ®

. The spreadsheet posted on the DOE website represents the latest version of the applicable model and has been developed and tested with Microsoft Excel 200 7

. The LCC spreadsheet or workbook consi sts of the following tab s as described in Table 8E.2

. 1

.
Table 8

- E.2

. 1 Description of Tabs in the Life

- Cycle Cost Spreadsheet

Sheet Name Description Instructions Instructions for use of the model Revision Notes Provides a history of changes that have been made to the model Names 3

- 4

- 2011 This sheet describes the purpose of named ranges in the model Split AC Costs This sheet provides data and calculations for purchase and installation of a replacement split

- system A/C units for various effic iency levels (SEER levels). The cost curve for a coil

- only system shows higher costs to meet a given SEER than if both coil and blower are considered. Replacement Costs 2 This sheet estimates manufacturer selling price, transportation cost, and installation costs for replacement split

- system air conditioners of 2 tons (24,000 Btu/hr) capacity. Replacement Costs 3 This sheet estimates manufacturer selling price, transportation cost, and installation costs for replacement split

- system air conditioners of 3 tons (36,000 Btu/hr) capacity. Replacement Costs 5 This sheet estimates manufacturer selling price, transportation cost, and installation costs for replacement split

- system air conditioners of 5 tons (60,000 Btu/hr) capacity. Equip Price, Repair, Mntc 2 This sheet estimates manufacturer selling price, tr ansportation costs, installation costs, and repair and maintenance costs based on product class and SEER level for Split

- system A/C (except replacements) and HP units of 2

- ton capacity.8

- E

- 2 Equip Price, Repair, Mntc 3 This sheet estimates manufacturer selling price, transportation costs, installation costs, and repair and maintenance costs based on product class and SEER level for Split

- system A/C (except replacements) and HP units of 3

- ton capacity and all single

- package and SDHV units. Equip Price, Repair, Mntc 5 This sheet estimates manufacturer selling price, transportation costs, installation costs, and repair and maintenance costs based on product class and SEER level for Split

- system A/C (except replacements) and HP units of 5

- ton capacity. Split AC Coil Only (L) Pre

- processing sheet for manufacturer's production cost, dimensions and weight for Coil

- Only Split

- System A/C for use in calculating first cost of replacement split

- system A/C units . Modifies Split AC Coil Only input data for learning that reduces first cost. Split AC Blower

- Coil (L) Pre

- processing sheet for manufacturer's production cost, dimensions and weight for Blower

- Coil Split System A/C for use in calculating first cost of replacement split

- system A/C units . Modifies Split AC Coil Only input data for learning that reduces first cost. Split AC Coil Only Data for input to Split AC Coil

- Only sheet. Split AC Blower

- Coil (L) Data for input to Split AC Coil

- Only sheet. EquipPRM Input Main input sheet for manufacturer's production cost except replacement Split System A/C, shipping (transportation) cost, repair cost, maintenance costs, installation costs, equipment weight, and efficiency levels (SEER and HSPF) for all products CB Statistical Results When the model is run in Crystal Ball this sheet captures regional summary statistics (e.g., mean median, 5th,25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles) on key model outputs (installed costs, annual energy use and operating costs, LCC and payba ck period) from the distributions of model results.
Summary Contains the input selections and a summary table of regional energy use, elements of regional installed cost, regional annual operating costs, and regional results for LCC and payback period. RPBCalcs_Sensitivity This sheet contains all data and calculations for rebuttable payback analysis on all product classes.
Labels This is used as a go

- between for user inputs and the rest of the tabs

— do not modify this sheet.
National Variables This sheet provides values for input data that only varies at the national level

— wholesale and contractor markups, purchaser discount rates. It also determines from probability distributions whether any given sale of AC equipment is new or replacement and whether it is being installed in a residential or commercial building. Finally, it provides the distribution of products by efficiency level in the market baseline for the year 2016. Commercial Int. Processing This sheet provides regional calculations for year 2016 projected annual energy use, heating and cooling bills based on data concerning the product class, location and projected efficiency of individual commercial installations of AC and HP equipment. Commercial Sim Results This sheet queries the database of individual commercial equipment locations for a product class and provides information on current cooling and heating energy consumption and annual cooling and heating bill (based on 8760 hours with price variation by time of use, where relevant) by efficiency level (SEER level)8

- E

- 3 Residential Int. Processing This sheet provides regional calculations for year 2016 projected annual energy use, heating and cooling bills based on data concerning the product class, location and projected efficiency of individual residential installations of AC and HP equipment. Input Data on kWh Use, Price This sheet queries the database of individual residential equipment locations for the product class and provides information on current annual cooling and heating energy consumption and average and marginal cost for cooling and heating by efficiency level (SEER level) by region for individual observations.
Costs Workup Uses product class and locations, national and regional markup factors, sales tax rates and average manufacturer sales prices (including delivery charges) by efficiency level to calculate delivered equipment prices by efficiency level by region for individual observations. First Cost, Repair Intermediate processing page used to collect information on national average manufacturer selling price, transportation cost, repair cost maintenance cost, and installation cost for use in the Costs Workup sheet. Base Install Costs Contains national average data on components of installation costs for each product class. Installation Cost Indexes Calculates state

- level regional installation price indexes. Calculated Regional Indices Contains factors for calculating regionalized values for wholesale and contractor markups, sales taxes, and installation costs for individual observations. First Cost Region Vals. Provides projected values for new and replacement installation costs, annual repair costs, and annual maintenance costs for individual observations by efficiency level. State

- Level Variables and Wts. Provides data and likelihood of wholesale markup index, contractor markup indices, state and local sales tax index, and installation cost index for individual states. Used to calculate markups and other indices for individual observations in the Calculated Regional Indices tab. Electricity Charts Provides forecast charts for all of the electricity price indexes used in the model Energy Price Escalation Translates scenario projections of future electricity prices from the Annual Energy Outlook into inflation

- adjusted regional residential and commercial heating and cooling electricity price indices.

Discount Rate Contains data from which an average discount rate and a distribution of discount rates are determined for residential consumers.
Summary Cost of Capital Contains the commercial firm financial data and calculations used to estimate a weighted average cost of capital and discount rate for commercial

consumers. Lifetime Contains the calculations for the survival function for central air conditioning and heat pump units (lifetime in years).

Basic instructions for operating the LCC spreadsheets are as follows:
To execute the spreadsheets fully you will need Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball, Version 7.0 or later

. The spreadsheet can be run in sen sitivity mode using Excel alone

.8

- E

- 4 1. Once you have downloaded the LCC file from the Web, first open Crystal Ball a nd then open the file inside of Crystal Ball using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for sheet Summary.

2. Use Excel’s commands at the top View/Zoom to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.

3. The user interacts with the spreadsheet by clicking choices or entering data using the graphical interface that comes with the spreadsheet. Choices can be selected from the various inputs listed under "User Options" heading.

4. Under the "User Options" heading select choices from the selection butto ns and boxes for the following: (1) Uncertainty option (2) electricity price projection, (3) start year, (4) dollar year, (5) product class, (6) installation option (replacement or new

— applies only for sensitivity mode to split

- system A/C). (7) subgroup

— lo w
- income households, senior households, or no subgroup (general population), (8) level of any cost

- reducing measures such as Federal tax credits. To change inputs listed under “User Options” select the input you wish to change selecting the appropriate inp ut from the input box.

5. Crystal Ball results may be saved by using the options in Create Report and Extract Data functions on the Control Box window , or by copying and pasting output from the CB Statistical Results tab to another Excel spreadsheet. Rerunni ng the model wipes out results in the CB Statistical Results tab.
To run a Crystal Ball simulation, do the following : To produce Monte Carlo results using Crystal Ball, you need simply select Start from the menu (on the Crystal Ball toolbar )

. To make basic changes in the run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from the Run menu. After each simulation run, the user needs to select Reset (also from the Run menu) before Start can be selected again. Once Crystal Ball has co mpleted its run sequence it will produce a series of distributions. Using the menu bars on the distribution results it is possible to obtain further statistical information. A full 10,000 runs takes approximately 90 minutes

. The model runs most efficiently by minimizing tu r ning off updating and minimizing the Crystal Ball window in Excel

. Ten thousand runs is the default number of runs for this analysis.
A step

- by

- step summary of the procedure, for running a distribution analysis, is outlined below: 1) On Excel Options

- Formulas, make sure that “Enable iterative calculation is checked. We recommend 100 maximum iterations and 0.001 maximum change. 2) Find the Crystal Ball toolbar (at top of screen)
3 ) Click on RUN8

- E

- 5 4 ) Select Preference and choose from the following choices: a) Monte Carlo b) Latin Hypercube (recommended) c) Initial seed choices and whether you want it to be constant between runs d) Select number of Monte Carlo t rials (we suggest 1 0,000 ).
5 ) To run the simulation, follow the following sequence (on the Crystal Ball toolbar ) RESET (if not already done) START
6 ) Now wait until the program informs you that the simulation is completed. Depending on the speed of your computer, this takes up to about 90 minutes on a current gen e ration PC for 10,000 runs

. Although the model is operating properly, it will indicate on completion that "errors were encountered".
Crystal Ball Results 1) After the simulation has finished, to see the distribution charts generated, click on the Windows t ool bar that is labeled Crystal Ball. 2) Several of the variables of interest, including life

- cycle cost, the life

- cycle cost savings, and the payback periods are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations, or tri als, performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts show the low and high endpoints of the forecasts

. The View selection on the Crystal Ball toolbar can be used to specify whether you want cumulative or frequency plots show n. 3) To generate a printout report, select Create Report from the Run menu. The toolbar choice of Forecast Windows allows you to select the charts and statistics you are interested in. For further information on Crystal Ball outputs, please refer to Under standing the Forecast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual

. Crystal Ball results also may be saved to a separate Excel spreadsheet by using the Extract Data function under Analyze on the Control Panel window.