Cost Effect

Manufacturing Sector (NAICS 3361)

Parameters 1.134 (2005 to 2011 dollars) 1.021 2010 to 2011 dollars

GDP Deflators 1.044 (2008 to 2011 dollars) Domestic content 0.66690608

1.067 (2007 to 2011 dollars)

Original Dollars 2005 2010 2010 2007

Dataset 2010 BLS ERM 2011 ASM, 

NAICS 3361

2011 ASM, 

NAICS 33611

2007 Econ 

Census, NAICS 

3361

Sectors Motor vehicle 

mfg

Motor vehicle 

mfg Light Duty Only Motor vehicle mfg

Labor Intensity, 

jobs/$1M, unadjusted 0.8550 0.6331 0.5834 0.6946

Labor Intensity, 

jobs/$1M (2011$), 

direct

0.7540 0.6331 0.5834 0.6510

Jobs/$1 million 

after domestic 

adjustment 0.502841891 0.422216242 0.389081651 0.434176301

Fleet Cost ($Million/year 11$)

2016 $ 21 9 7 7 7

2017 $ 297 114 99 91 87

2018 $ 615 227 198 182 174

2019 $ 653 231 202 186 178

2020 $ 697 238 208 191 183

2021 $ 725 238 208 191 183

2022 $ 758 239 209 192 184

2023 $ 751 228 199 183 175

2024 $ 761 222 194 179 171

2025 $ 773 217 189 175 167
Parts Sector (NAICS 3363)

2007 Original Dollars 2005 2010 2007

2007 Econ 

Census, NAICS 

33611

Dataset 2010 BLS ERM 2011 ASM, 

NAICS 3363

2007 Econ Census, 

NAICS 3363

Light Duty Only Sectors

Motor vehicle 

parts 

manufacturing

Motor vehicle 

parts 

manufacturing

Motor vehicle parts 

mfg

0.6293 Labor Intensity, 

jobs/$1M, unadjusted 2.9011 2.1900 2.8338

0.5897

Labor Intensity, 

jobs/$1M (2011$), 

direct

2.5583 2.1900 2.6558

0.393300421

Jobs/$1 million 

after domestic 

adjustment 1.706 1.461 1.771

 6 2017 29 26 27

 79 2017 387 344 358

 158 2018 773 687 715

 161 2019 790 702 731

 165 2020 812 722 751

 166 2021 812 722 752

 166 2022 817 727 756

 159 2023 779 693 721

 155 2024 760 676 703

 151 2025 743 661 688

 6,673 5,935 6,176
Maximum Minimum Rounded Costs (Millions)Maximum Minimum

 29 6 2016 $ 21 0 0

 387 79 2017 $ 297 400 100

 773 158 2018 $ 615 800 200

 790 161 2019 $ 653 800 200

 812 165 2020 $ 697 800 200

 812 166 2021 $ 725 800 200

 817 166 2022 $ 758 800 200

 779 159 2023 $ 751 800 200

 760 155 2024 $ 761 800 200

 743 151 2025 $ 773 700 200

 6,673 1,360 Total 6,700 1,400
U.S. Vehicle Sales: From UsaSa01.xls U.S. Vehicle Production by Manufactu

NOTE: Truck appears to be total trucks not just 

Cars Light Trucks MD/HD Trucks Total Trucks Car Truck

Year Total Total Total Total Total Total Year

2010 5,635,433 5,919,085 217,702 6,136,787 2,731,105 5,011,988 2010

2009 5,400,890 5,000,792 199,686 5,200,478 2,195,588 3,513,843 2009

2008 6,769,107 6,425,634 298,424 6,724,058 3,731,241 4,940,900 2008

2007 7,562,334 8,526,888 371,093 8,897,981 3,867,268 6,885,042 2007

2006 7,761,592 8,742,808 544,581 9,287,389 4,311,696 6,948,581 2006

2005 7,659,983 9,287,771 496,575 9,784,346 4,265,872 7,680,781 2005

2004 7,482,555 9,384,365 431,653 9,816,018 4,165,925 7,794,429 2004

2003 7,555,551 9,083,502 328,389 9,411,891 4,453,369 7,633,659 2003

2002 8,042,255 8,774,113 322,284 9,096,397 4,957,377 7,322,205 2002

2001 8,352,000 8,770,369 350,009 9,120,378 4,808,019 6,616,670 2001

U.S. Vehicle Sales, 1931-2010. UsaSa01.xls, accessed July 25, 2011 at http://subscribers.wardsauto.com/refcenter/ , ©Copyr

U.S. Vehicle Production by Manufacturer. UsaPr05.xls, accessed July 25, 2011 at http://subscribers.wardsauto.com/refcenter/ 
US Production/US Sales

ears to be total trucks not just LD. For the following, I'm going to use total trucks for sales, for comparability.

Proportion of LT among all trucks

Car Total Truck Total Average for Car & Truck Car Average (20XX-2011) Truck Average (20XX-2011)

0.48463091 0.816712068 0.6577428 0.6577428 0.484631 0.816712068 0.964525085

0.40652337 0.675676928 0.53855606 0.60126807 0.446407 0.752018322 0.961602376

0.55121614 0.734809248 0.64270621 0.6168572 0.486252 0.745611548 0.955618467

0.51138551 0.773775759 0.65322626 0.62829767 0.493745 0.754907211 0.958294696

0.55551696 0.748173787 0.66046628 0.63620302 0.508217 0.753181925 0.941363391

0.55690359 0.785007092 0.68484451 0.64597628 0.51736 0.759946674 0.949248013

0.55675167 0.794052028 0.69140697 0.65352425 0.523466 0.765941238 0.956025651

0.58941684 0.811065385 0.71236595 0.66176954 0.532392 0.772449213 0.965109137

0.61641629 0.804956622 0.7164847 0.66855373 0.542972 0.776426066 0.964570148

0.57567277 0.725481992 0.65387144 0.66690608 0.546753 0.770860026 0.961623411

wardsauto.com/refcenter/ , ©Copyright 2011, Ward's Automotive Group, a division of Penton Media Inc. Redistribution prohibited.

bscribers.wardsauto.com/refcenter/ , ©Copyright 2011, Ward's Automotive Group, a division of Penton Media Inc. Redistribution prohibited.
omparability.

 among all trucks

ution prohibited.

Redistribution prohibited.
Raw Data: BLS ERM realdomreq (real domestic employment requirements table for 1993-2010), http://www.bls.gov/emp/

Year Sector 81 Sector 83 Ln(Sec81) Ln(Sec83) 2005$ Sector

1993 1.638752 5.572813 0.493935 1.7179 81

1994 1.528742 5.233601 0.424445 1.6551 82

1995 1.582246 5.358023 0.458845 1.678595 83

1996 1.552821 5.299569 0.440073 1.667625

1997 1.368803 5.125182 0.313937 1.634166

1998 1.308802 4.930115 0.269112 1.595362

1999 1.17323 4.390526 0.159761 1.479449

2000 1.297179 4.626042 0.260192 1.531702

2001 1.377158 4.698553 0.320022 1.547255

2002 1.167713 3.985995 0.155047 1.382787

2003 1.111995 3.660185 0.106156 1.297514

2004 1.043225 3.548093 0.042317 1.26641

2005 0.998222 3.491036 -0.00178 1.250199

2006 0.955367 3.40116 -0.04566 1.224117

2007 0.916044 3.267324 -0.08769 1.183971

2008 0.973064 3.528846 -0.02731 1.260971

2009 0.889512 3.242646 -0.11708 1.17639

2010 0.855027 2.901118 -0.15662 1.065096

Sector 81 Semilog

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.969586

R Square 0.940098

Adjusted R Square 0.936354

Standard Error 0.053978

Observations 18

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 0.731617 0.731617 251.1025 3.35E-11

Residual 16 0.046618 0.002914

Total 17 0.778235

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

Intercept 77.94398 4.908248 15.8802 3.24E-11 67.53896 88.34901 67.53896 88.34901

Year -0.03886 0.002452 -15.8462 3.35E-11 -0.04406 -0.03366 -0.04406 -0.03366

ProjectionsRaw Data Raw Data

Year Actual 81 Actual 83 Projected 81Projected 83

1993 1.638752 5.572813 1.644438 5.744127

1994 1.528742 5.233601 1.581762 5.528551

1995 1.582246 5.358023 1.521475 5.321065

1996 1.552821 5.299569 1.463485 5.121366

1997 1.368803 5.125182 1.407706 4.929162

1998 1.308802 4.930115 1.354053 4.744171

1999 1.17323 4.390526 1.302444 4.566123

2000 1.297179 4.626042 1.252803 4.394757 2

3

4

5

6

7
2001 1.377158 4.698553 1.205054 4.229822

2002 1.167713 3.985995 1.159124 4.071077

2003 1.111995 3.660185 1.114946 3.91829

2004 1.043225 3.548093 1.072451 3.771237

2005 0.998222 3.491036 1.031575 3.629703

2006 0.955367 3.40116 0.992258 3.493481

2007 0.916044 3.267324 0.954439 3.362371

2008 0.973064 3.528846 0.918061 3.236181

2009 0.889512 3.242646 0.883071 3.114728

2010 0.855027 2.901118 0.849413 2.997833

2011 0.817039 2.885324

2012 0.785898 2.777038

2013 0.755944 2.672816

2014 0.727132 2.572506

2015 0.699418 2.47596

2016 0.672761 2.383038

2017 0.647119 2.293603

2018 0.622455 2.207524

2019 0.598731 2.124676

2020 0.575911 2.044937

2021 0.553961 1.968191

2022 0.532847 1.894325

2023 0.512538 1.823231

2024 0.493003 1.754805

2025 0.474213 1.688948

0

1

1990 2000 2010
3-2010), http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_emp_requirements.htm

Definition NAICS

Motor vehicle manufacturing 3361

Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing 3362

Motor vehicle parts manufacturing 3363

Sector 83 Semilog

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.969434

R Square 0.939802

Adjusted R Square 0.93604

Standard Error 0.053274

Observations 18

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 0.708938 0.708938 249.7916 3.48E-11

Residual 16 0.04541 0.002838

Total 17 0.754347

Upper 95.0% CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 77.98493 4.844236 16.0985 2.64E-11 67.71561 88.25425 67.71561

Year -0.03825 0.00242 -15.8048 3.48E-11 -0.04338 -0.03312 -0.04338

Actual 81

Actual 83

Projected 81

Projected 83
2020 2030
Upper 95.0%

88.25425

-0.03312
Annual Survey of Manufacture

Sector 31: Annual Survey of Manufactures: General Statistics: Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries: 2009 and 2010

NOTE: For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, and definitions, see Survey Methodology

Geographic Area 

Name

NAICS-based 

code

Meaning of 

NAICS-based 

code Year

Number of 

employees

RSE of total 

number of 

employees (%)

Annual payroll 

($1,000)

Total fringe 

benefits ($1,000)

United States 3361 Motor vehicle manufacturing 2011 148,009 2 9,888,864 4,216,784

United States 3361 Motor vehicle manufacturing 2010 137,284 1 9,211,421 3,693,873

United States 33611 Automobile and light duty 2011 motor vehicle manufacturing 120,691 2 8,403,630 3,541,588

United States 33611 Automobile and light duty 2010 motor vehicle manufacturing 115,198 2 8,059,437 3,164,553

United States 336111 Automobile manufacturing 2011 59,808 4 3,937,089 1,456,307

United States 336111 Automobile manufacturing 2010 60,421 3 4,020,420 1,497,274

United States 336112 Light truck and utility 2011 vehicle m60,883 anufacturing 1 4,466,541 2,085,281

United States 336112 Light truck and utility 2010 vehicle m54,777 anufacturing 1 4,039,017 1,667,279

United States 3363 Motor vehicle parts manufacturing 2011 404,636 1 20,633,373 7,322,754

United States 3363 Motor vehicle parts manufacturing 2010 388,920 1 19,581,962 6,746,287

Economic Census

Sector 31: Manufacturing: Summary Series: General Summary: Industry Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries: 2007

Data based on the 2007 Economic Census. For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, and 

Geographic Area Name 2007 NAICS code Meaning of 2007 NAICS code Footnote identifier CompaniesNumber of establishments Number of employ Annual pay ees roll ($1,000)

United States 3361 Motor vehicle manufacturing 313 379 179,362 13,355,573

United States 33611 Automobile and light duty motor vehicle manufacturing 235 278 150,242 12,001,554

United States 336111 Automobile manufacturing 174 188 65,436 5,110,050

United States 336112 Light truck and utility vehicle manufacturing 66 90 84,806 6,891,504

United States 3363 Motor vehicle parts manufacturing 4,659 5,742 584,440 28,209,409

AM1131GS101

Annual Survey of Manufactures: General Statistics: Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries: 2011 and 2010 

2011 and 2010 data downloaded 6/11/13

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ASM_2011_31GS101&prodType=table
ps and Industries: 2009 and 2010

d definitions, see Survey Methodology. For information on the ASM industry groupings, see Comparability. Data in this table represent those 

RSE of total fringe 

benefits (%)

Employer's 

cost for health 

insurance 

($1,000)

Employer's cost 

for defined 

benefit pension 

plans ($1,000)

Employer's cost for 

defined contribution 

plans ($1,000)

Employer's cost 

for other fringe 

benefits ($1,000)

Production 

workers avg per 

year

Production 

workers hours 

(1,000)

Production 

workers, 

nonleased 

employees 

wages ($1,000)

1 1,806,347 626,246 197,256 1,586,935 126,910 243,234 7,993,908

1 1,598,128 496,467 173,429 1,425,849 115,352 224,938 7,470,579

1 1,471,914 542,874 172,944 1,353,855 105,098 205,193 6,936,153

1 1,328,416 426,319 150,383 1,259,434 98,846 195,130 6,707,667

2 655,104 169,400 81,052 550,750 50,111 98,378 3,079,955

2 647,408 170,765 81,161 597,939 50,449 98,452 3,216,274

1 816,810 373,474 91,892 803,105 54,987 106,815 3,856,198

1 681,008 255,554 69,222 661,495 48,397 96,678 3,491,393

1 3,177,794 566,810 492,972 3,085,177 308,962 623,699 13,902,843

1 2,949,110 509,191 416,455 2,871,532 293,202 594,294 12,981,626

stry Groups and Industries: 2007

ampling error, nonsampling error, and definitions, see Survey Methodology [pdf]. Data in this file represent those available when this file wa

Production workers avg per y Production workers hours (1,000) Production workers, nonleased employ ear Value added ($1,000) Total cost of materials ($1,000) ees wages ($1,000) Total value of shipments ($1,000) Total capital expenditures (new and used) ($

154,822 303,402 11,448,694 72,653,434 185,376,159 258,204,960 3,748,747

131,438 262,655 10,513,020 68,533,107 169,841,521 238,763,096 3,555,926

56,447 113,980 4,449,862 21,378,103 63,392,242 84,727,558 1,765,150

74,991 148,675 6,063,158 47,155,004 106,449,279 154,035,538 1,790,776

444,761 905,666 19,525,053 74,666,400 131,469,683 206,240,940 6,729,578

stries: 2011 and 2010 

011_31GS101&prodType=table
Data in this table represent those available when this report was created. Data may not be available for all NAICS industries or geographies. 

Value added 

($1,000)

Total cost of 

materials 

($1,000)

Total value of 

shipments ($1,000)

Total capital 

expenditures (new 

and used) ($1,000)

Contract work 

($1,000)

Cost of 

purchased 

fuels ($1,000)

RSE of cost of 

purchased 

fuels (%)

Quantity of 

electricity 

purchased for 

heat and 

power (1,000 

kWh)

179,079,486 2 177,272,222 600,676 424,648 296,752 1 9,648,575

142,664,272 2 141,057,304 547,586 322,808 313,3 1 7,647,537

156,436,626 3 155,182,852 323,072 216,097 272,904 1 9,035,271

127,023,131 3 125,937,586 272,384 150,924(s) 281,051 1 6,942,605

63,648,042 7 62,841,556 288,019 184,132(s) 119,279 1 4,458,593

53,412,698 6 52,709,365 251,162 125,848(s) 122,406 1 3,860,736

92,788,584 1 92,341,296 35,053 31,965 153,625 1 4,576,678

73,610,433 1 73,228,221 21,222 25,076 158,645 1 3,081,869

122,560,993 1 113,269,464 5,564,700 1,874,537 385,307 2 ########

106,368,826 1 98,358,979 4,679,757 1,533,278 402,872 2 ########

those available when this file was created; data may not be available for all NAICS industries or geographies. Data in this table may be subje

 expenditures (new and used) ($1,000)
NAICS industries or geographies. Detail items may not add to total due to independent rounding.

Purchased 

electricity 

($1,000)

Relative 

standard error 

of purchased 

electricity (%)

Quantity of 

generated 

electricity 

(1,000 kWh)

Quantity of 

electricity sold 

or transferred 

(1,000 kWh)

Total value of 

shipments 

($1,000)

Relative 

standard error 

of total value 

of shipments 

(%)

Value of products 

shipments 

($1,000)

Value of 

interplant 

transfers ($1,000)

Total 

miscellaneous 

receipts 

($1,000)

485,187 1 D D 233,785,658 2 232,511,335 D 1,274,323

423,209 1 D D 207,431,559 2 206,140,202 4,190,235 1,291,357

441,700 1 D D 206,870,618 2 206,063,032 D 807,586

381,186 1 D D 186,505,401 2 185,636,624 D 868,777

215,055 1 D S 85,126,880 6 84,459,926 D 666,954

203,917 1 D S 74,229,884 5 73,451,069 233,501 778,815

226,645 1 D D 121,743,738 1 121,603,106 D 140,632

177,269 1 D D 112,275,517 1 112,185,555 D 89,962

1,466,985 1 D D 184,764,425 1 177,210,692 25,724,997 7,553,733

1,393,940 1 D D 169,218,138 1 162,779,248 22,510,569 6,438,890

es. Data in this table may be subject to employment- and/or sales-size minimums that vary by industry.
Value of 

resales 

($1,000)

Contract 

receipts 

($1,000)

Other 

miscellaneous 

receipts 

($1,000)

Value added 

($1,000)

Relative 

standard error 

of value 

added (%)

Total 

inventories, end 

of year ($1,000)

Relative 

standard error 

of total 

inventories, 

end of year 

(%)

769,704 D D 54,916,503 1 6,639,762 2

D D D 65,274,959 1 5,921,172 3

336,469 D D 50,610,313 1 4,659,177 1

D D D 59,633,278 1 3,938,132 2

D D D 21,555,166 3 2,504,447 3

D D D 20,747,978 3 2,177,504 4

D D D 29,055,147 1 2,154,730 1

D D D 38,885,300 1 1,760,628 1

6,531,210 101,485 921,038 62,854,633 1 13,931,140 1

5,521,550 138,424 778,917 63,575,747 1 12,341,077 1
Table 1.1.4. Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product 

[Index numbers, 2005=100] 

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Downloaded on 8/25/2011 At 8:59:48 AM Last Revised July 29, 2011 . NOTE THAT THIS MATCHES THE TABLE PROVIDE

 Line 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

1 Gross domestic product 64.818 67.047 69.579 72.274 74.826 76.602 78.288 79.935

From Todd Sherwood 6/5/13

Converting from USD_2005 USD_2006 USD_2007 USD_2008 USD_2009 USD_2010 USD_2011

USD_2005 1 1.032 1.062 1.086 1.095 1.11 1.134

USD_2006 0.969 1 1.029 1.052 1.061 1.075 1.098

USD_2007 0.941 0.972 1 1.022 1.031 1.045 1.067

USD_2008 0.921 0.951 0.979 1 1.009 1.022 1.044

USD_2009 0.913 0.943 0.97 0.991 1 1.013 1.035

USD_2010 0.901 0.93 0.957 0.978 0.987 1 1.021

USD_2011 0.882 0.911 0.937 0.958 0.966 0.979 1

[Index numbers, 2005=100]

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Last Revised on: May 30, 2013 - Next Release Date June 26, 2013

Line USD_2000 USD_2001 USD_2002 USD_2003 USD_2004 USD_2005 USD_2006 USD_2007

1 Gross domestic product 88.724 90.731 92.192 94.134 96.784 100 103.237 106.231

GDP Price Deflator Multiplicative Factor

Multiply by this factor when converting to

Table 1.1.4. Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product
S THE TABLE PROVIDED BY T SHERWOOD 2/28/12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

81.602 83.154 84.627 85.58 86.84 88.724 90.731 92.192 94.134 96.784

Morgenstern et al refinery 2.17 workers/$1M (1987$)

1.26714 1633.343

USD_2008 USD_2009 USD_2010 USD_2011

108.565 109.532 111.002 113.369
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

100 103.237 106.231 108.565 109.532 111.002 113.369
FROM File T3 NPRM Vehicle Program Costs.xlsx I:\Project\Tier 3 Rule\Vehicle Team\Cost\FRM\LDT3_Program Costs

Millions of 2011 dollars

Exhaust Evap

Year Light-duty 2b/3 All Light-duty 2b/3 All

2016 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

2017 $268 $0 $268 $26 $0 $26

2018 $519 $20 $539 $70 $3 $73

2019 $555 $24 $579 $69 $3 $72

2020 $571 $28 $599 $94 $4 $98

2021 $598 $32 $630 $93 $4 $97

2022 $605 $35 $640 $116 $5 $121

2023 $606 $33 $639 $111 $5 $116

2024 $620 $33 $653 $109 $5 $114

2025 $635 $33 $668 $108 $5 $113
m\Cost\FRM\LDT3_Program Costs_FRM.xlsx

Facilities

All Total

$0 $0 $0 $21 $21

$0 $0 $0 $4 $297

-$1 $0 -$1 $4 $615

-$2 $0 -$2 $4 $653

-$3 $0 -$3 $4 $697

-$4 $0 -$5 $4 $725

-$6 $0 -$6 $4 $758

-$7 $0 -$8 $4 $751

-$9 $0 -$9 $4 $761

-$10 -$1 -$11 $4 $773