Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 5

Global 10-year treasury yields 6

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 7-9

Ginnie Mae yield spreads - Intermediate Credit 10

MBS yield per duration 11

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 12 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 13

National HPI, HPI by state 13-14 

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 15

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 16

Outstanding Agency MBS 17

OutstandingGinnie Mae MBS volume by vintage and coupon over time 18

Characteristics of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance 19-21

Origination volume over time 22

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 23-25

Purchase versus refi: Refi Issuance Breakdown 26 

Credit Box 

First time homebuyer share—purchase only loans 27-28

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 29-31

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 32-33

CumulativeDefault Rates: FHA and VA 34

High LTV credit box 35-36

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 37-38

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 39-42

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 43-44

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 44

Prepayments 

Aggregate 45

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 46-48

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS and Multifamily 49

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 50

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 51

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 52

Foreign ownership of MBS 53-54

Fed Ownership of MBS 55

CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS

A Closer Look at Trends in Agency MBS Trading Volume 

Page 50 of this report shows the average daily trading volume for agency mortgage-backed 

securities. The top chart shows average daily dollar trading volume over time while the bottom 

chart shows turnover. Trading activity peaked at $345 billion per day on average in 2008 before 

falling off substantially post-bubble. However, very strong refinance issuance volumes spurred 

by all-time low rates have pushed the daily trading volume substantially higher since 2016. It 

reached $334 billion in Q1 2021, and even exceeded $366 billion in the month of Jan 2021.

More insights emerge when we analyze the conventional/government breakout of trading 

volumes. Figure 1 shows average daily trading volume by month for GSEs and Ginnie Mae. Both 

have increased over the last six years although GSEs volumes have grown more, from around 

$202 billion per day in Jan 2015 to $296 billion in Jan 2021, a 47 percent increase. Ginnie’s daily 

trading volume, while smaller in absolute terms compared to the GSEs, has grown in percentage 

terms over the same six years, from $41 to $69 billion, a 68 percent increase. While monthly 

numbers can be volatile, note that current trading volumes for both are at the highest level since 

at least 2011. In comparison, trading volume for investment grade corporate bonds is much 

smaller, averaging about $21 billion a day currently.

Figure 1: GSE and Ginnie Mae Average Daily Trading Volume ($ millions)

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Mar 2021

The increase in trading volume, which facilitates efficient functioning of the TBA market and 

drives down liquidity premiums, in large part reflects growth in MBS outstanding. In Jan 2015 

Ginnie Mae-guaranteed MBS outstanding was $1.5 trillion, compared to over $2 trillion today. 

GSE MBS outstanding in Jan 2015 was $4.1 trillion compared to $5.7 trillion today. A more 

holistic picture emerges when analyzing turnover i.e. the ratio of average daily trading volume to 

the MBS outstanding. This is shown in Figure 2.

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

GSEs Ginnie Mae
Figure 2: Turnover for GSE and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Mar 2021

Although turnover is up for both GSE and Ginnie Mae securities, Ginnie’s current turnover is at 

the higher end of the range during the last 10 years, above 3 percent. The GSE turnover, while 

higher at 4 to 5 percent today, is well below the 6 to 7 percent peak reached in 2012. The 2012 

peak in GSE turnover was likely driven by the massive refi issuance volume as the Fed cut 

interest rates to zero after the 2008 bust. VA was a much smaller component of Ginnie 

outstanding in 2012 ($280 billion out of $1.3 trillion, or 21 percent). Trading volumes are highly 

correlated to new issuance volume. Newly issued pools are typically bought and sold frequently 

as traders try to profit from pricing imperfections, pushing up trading activity. Lower rates 

boosted both FHA and VA lending in 2020 and 2021. In addition, VA issuances have grown 

robustly since 2009 (VA loans today comprise about 40 percent of Ginnie outstanding), pushing 

trading volumes higher.

Highlights this month:

• FHA and VA serious delinquency rates edged down for the first time since the start of the pandemic, 

with FHA declining from 11.2 percent in Q4 2020 to 11.0 percent in Q1 2021 and VA declining from 

6.0 to 5.6 percent (page 13).

• 2021 was off to a strong start for first-lien originations, with $1.31 trillion in mortgages originated 

during the first quarter (page 22).

HIGHLIGHTS

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

GSE Turnover Ginnie Mae Turnover
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 27 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index—less 

than either the US Treasury share (37 percent) or the US Credit share (31 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

accounts for 10 percent of the overall index, the largest MBS component, while Freddie Mac 30-year MBS and Ginnie 

Mae 30-year MBS comprise 7 and 6 percent of the market, respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years 

comprise the remaining balance (4 percent) of the Barclays US Aggregate Index. US securities are the single largest 

contributor to the Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 36 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 10 

percent ofthe global aggregate.

37%

2%

31%

6%

10%

7%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

53%

9%

25%

10%

1%

2%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2%

3% 1%

36%

30%

21%

1%

0.04%

2% 0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2021.

Note: Numbers in chart may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of March 2021.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

2

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of April 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of April 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2021.

After experiencing COVID-19 related volatility in March and April of 2020, government bond yields across the 

globe gradually stabilized and have started trending up meaningfully in 2021. Yields on the 10-year treasury 

decreased by 11 bps to 1.63 percent in April 2021, after increasing by 83 bps in Q1, 2021, and remain the 

highest of the developed world. The yield on the Italian 10-year note, which was higher than the 10-year 

sovereign debt of the US, Japan, and Europe for much of 2020, increased by 24 bps to 0.90 percent. The yields 

on the UK 10-year and Japanese 10-year government bonds remained steady at 0.85 percent and 0.10 percent, 

respectively, in April. The German 10-year yield increased by 9 bps to negative 0.20 percent in April. At the end 

of March 2021, the hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year JGB stood at 121 

bps, a tightening of 9 bps from the previous month. The hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury 

and the 10-year Bund stood at 107 bps, a tightening of 18 bps since the end of March 2021.

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2021.

Nominal yields were down in April 2021, with GNMA II yields falling 16 bps to 1.71 percent and GNMA I yields 

down 13 bps to 1.88 percent. At the end of April, current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury 

counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 10-year Treasury yields) by 47 bps on the G2SF and 64 bps on 

the GNSF, a tightening of 6 and 2 bps, respectively, since last month.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2021.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Japanese Yen, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the JGB 5/10 

blend at the end of April 2021. More precisely, hedged into Japanese yen, the G2SF and GNSF have a 137 and 

155 bp yield, respectively, versus the JGB 5/10 blend. This represents a 14 bp tightening for G2SF and a 11 bp

tightening for GNSF since the end of March 2021.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2021.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Euros, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the German 5/10 

Blend. The figures below show that at the end of April 2021, the current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into 

euros have a 134 and 151 bp higher yield than the average of the German 5/10, respectively. This represents a 

21 and 18 bp tightening for the G2SF and GNSF, respectively, since the end of March 2021.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Nov-20 Apr-21

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2021.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Nov-20 Apr-21

U.S. Intermediate Credit - OAS US GNMA 30yr II - OAS

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of April 2021.

Spread between Intermediate credit and 30-year GNMA MBS OAS

G2 30 MBS versus Intermediate Credit

The spread between US Intermediate Credit and GNMA II 30 year OAS skyrocketed in February 2020 in response 

to the COVID-19 panic. This was followed by substantial tightening over the remainder of 2020 and into April of 

2021. The OAS on intermediate credit fully recovered from its enormous widening in early 2020, while the Ginnie

Mae II 30-year fell to multi-year lows. The spread between the two remains much elevated, ending April 2021 at 65 

bps, higher than the 21 bps in January 2020, but similar to levels in mid 2019.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS 

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of April 2021.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most government securities with the same or longer durations. 

The only asset classes with significantly more yield and a similarly short duration are the US and Pan-Euro high 

yield. Duration, a measure of sensitivity to interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high 

yield asset classes, as there is a large credit component, which has moved front and center in light of COVID-19.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.9 0.85

US 10y 9.2 1.63

GNMA II 3.0% 4.3 1.48

GNMA II 3.5% 2.9 1.36

JPY 5y 4.9 -0.09

JPY 10y 9.8 0.09

GER 5y 5.0 -0.58

GER 10y 9.8 -0.20

ITA 5y 4.9 0.17

ITA 10y 9.9 0.90

US credit 8.2 2.09

US credit >= A 7.9 1.77

US HY 3.7 3.99

Pan-Euro Corp 5.8 0.58

Pan-Euro HY 3.5 3.06

US 5y

US 10y

G2 3.5% G2 3.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Source: State Street

* es 2 i ax

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.05 -0.36 0.38 0.38 1.52 1.24

3 year 0.32 0.39 0.58 0.25 0.60 0.37

5 year 0.19 0.20 0.41 0.20 0.62 0.40

10 year 0.22 0.24 0.42 0.36 0.54 0.54

Assume % capital zationm per issuer

*Assumes 2% capitalization max p i

Source: ta treet

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp

Pan Euro 

Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.06 -0.37 0.37 0.43 1.51 1.29

3 year 0.21 0.28 0.48 0.31 0.50 0.43

5 year 0.10 0.11 0.32 0.26 0.53 0.46

10 year 0.17 0.19 0.37 0.39 0.49 0.57

S te S

er ssuer

* su es 2 o ax

Source: State Street

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

Cor

1 year 0.25 0.91 1.75 0.75 1.83 1.25

3 year 0.58 1.27 2.03 1.65 2.69 2.90

5 year 0.59 1.17 1.71 1.38 2.15 2.31

10 year 0.63 1.07 1.49 1.36 2.03 2.03

As me % capitalizati nm per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Co p

Pan Euro 

Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.23 -0.40 0.21 0.57 0.82 1.03

3 year 0.37 0.22 0.23 0.19 0.18 0.15

5 year 0.17 0.10 0.19 0.19 0.25 0.20

10 year 0.28 0.18 0.25 0.29 0.24 0.28

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors.Note: Data as of April 2021.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade is less than other indices. However, the 

standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least price volatility over a 1, 

3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of risk for the Ginnie Mae index is 

highest among all asset classes for the 3-year horizon and is higher than any of the other US indices (10-year 

Treasury, US Corporate Credit, US High Yield) in a 10-year horizon.
2.58%

2.34%

11.00%

5.59%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1Q074Q073Q082Q091Q104Q103Q112Q121Q134Q133Q142Q151Q164Q163Q172Q181Q194Q193Q20

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q1 2021.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

1Q21

State of the US Housing Market

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Mar-02

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Bottom price tier Middle price tier Top price tier

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: Black Knight modified the methodology behind their HPI in February 2021, resulting in changes to 

historic price estimates. Black Knight divides home prices in each region into quintiles; this figure shows the performance of the bottom, middle and top 

quintiles. Data as of March 2021.

Serious delinquency rates for single-family GSE, FHA, and VA loans all fell slightly in Q1 2021. The increase in 

delinquencies from Q2 2020 to Q1 2021 reflects the impact of the pandemic on mortgage payments. The bottom 

chart shows nationwide house prices for the bottom, middle and the top quintiles by price. House prices escalated 

significantly in the second half of 2020, a trend that has remained in place in 2021. Prices have risen most at the 

lower end of the market where Ginnie Mae plays a major role. Prices at the lower end of the market rose by 13.4 

percent for 12 months ended March 2021, higher than the 12.8 percent for the top end of the market. Year-overyear price growth in March 2021 was higher than in February2021 for all price tiers.

13.4%

13.1%

12.8%
State of the US Housing Market

ehol

tgages,

Debt,

hous d

mortg

$9,

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note:

833

Black Knight modified the methodology behind their HPI in February 2021, resulting in changes to historic price 

estimates. HPI data as of March 2021. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when HPI reached the highest level for each 

state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to the lowest level for each state/US after 

the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 3/2021, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 77.5 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis peak 

valuation on a nominal basis by 32.7 percent. The picture is very different across states, with most states well in excess of 

the prior peak; two states, Illinois and Connecticut, surpassed their 2007 peak only now in March of 2021, currently 0.2 and 

0.5 percent above the peak.

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 74.8% -25.2% 77.5% 12.8% 32.7%

Alabama 35.9% -15.4% 49.2% 11.9% 26.1%

Alaska 68.9% -2.9% 34.8% 9.3% 30.8%

Arizona 110.1% -47.9% 129.7% 19.9% 19.7%

Arkansas 41.5% -9.8% 38.4% 11.9% 24.9%

California 154.5% -43.3% 124.6% 14.6% 27.4%

Colorado 40.4% -12.9% 113.0% 14.7% 85.6%

Connecticut 92.1% -24.8% 33.7% 14.9% 0.5%

Delaware 94.0% -23.6% 48.6% 13.8% 13.5%

District of Columbia 174.4% -14.1% 67.2% 5.0% 43.5%

Florida 128.2% -46.9% 96.4% 12.1% 4.3%

Georgia 38.3% -31.5% 92.2% 13.8% 31.8%

Hawaii 163.1% -22.6% 68.7% 9.8% 30.6%

Idaho 71.7% -28.8% 151.0% 29.0% 78.6%

Illinois 61.6% -34.4% 52.6% 8.7% 0.2%

Indiana 21.6% -8.1% 55.9% 12.4% 43.3%

Iowa 28.5% -4.8% 37.9% 8.5% 31.3%

Kansas 34.5% -9.3% 60.9% 11.4% 45.9%

Kentucky 29.7% -7.7% 52.7% 13.1% 40.9%

Louisiana 48.7% -5.5% 33.1% 7.3% 25.8%

Maine 81.9% -12.4% 63.4% 14.6% 43.2%

Maryland 129.4% -28.8% 47.1% 13.6% 4.7%

Massachusetts 92.3% -22.6% 78.1% 11.5% 37.9%

Michigan 23.8% -39.5% 102.5% 11.8% 22.5%

Minnesota 66.6% -28.0% 74.8% 9.4% 25.8%

Mississippi 41.2% -13.8% 42.6% 9.4% 22.9%

Missouri 42.7% -15.5% 55.0% 11.1% 31.0%

Montana 83.1% -11.8% 81.4% 19.0% 60.1%

Nebraska 26.6% -6.8% 62.3% 11.7% 51.2%

Nevada 126.8% -59.0% 156.6% 12.9% 5.2%

New Hampshire 90.9% -23.3% 72.1% 18.2% 32.0%

New Jersey 117.8% -28.1% 48.9% 15.0% 7.1%

New Mexico 66.5% -16.4% 44.6% 12.8% 20.9%

New York 98.5% -15.3% 56.5% 9.6% 32.6%

North Carolina 40.6% -16.2% 60.4% 13.8% 34.5%

North Dakota 53.5% -3.9% 62.1% 7.1% 55.9%

Ohio 21.2% -18.5% 58.4% 12.5% 29.0%

Oklahoma 37.4% -2.7% 34.6% 9.7% 31.0%

Oregon 81.9% -28.2% 114.8% 15.8% 54.1%

Pennsylvania 70.0% -11.8% 42.2% 11.1% 25.4%

Rhode Island 130.3% -34.8% 80.5% 15.6% 17.8%

South Carolina 44.9% -19.6% 54.5% 11.5% 24.2%

South Dakota 45.2% -3.6% 60.7% 9.4% 55.0%

Tennessee 34.9% -11.9% 71.6% 14.7% 51.1%

Texas 33.6% -5.8% 69.7% 10.9% 59.9%

Utah 55.0% -22.2% 117.6% 19.6% 69.3%

Vermont 81.3% -9.2% 42.9% 17.8% 29.8%

Virginia 100.0% -23.0% 45.2% 11.0% 11.8%

Washington 84.8% -28.7% 131.7% 18.0% 65.2%

West Virginia 40.4% -5.8% 37.6% 12.4% 29.6%

Wisconsin 44.8% -16.4% 54.9% 11.7% 29.5%

Wyoming 77.9% -7.5% 48.9% 10.6% 37.7%
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

$9,833

household h

mortgages,

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg.

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000) GNMA Share GNMA Loan Count

GNMA Avg. 

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. 

Loan Size 

(000)

National 24.2% 2,953,721 258.2 282.6 23.3% 10,955,728 166.2 207.5

Alabama 37.3% 54,981 199.9 222.8 37.8% 235,095 130.4 164.1

Alaska 46.0% 9,592 313.0 280.3 43.9% 37,367 235.0 211.3

Arizona 25.5% 110,086 253.2 258.2 21.9% 296,806 171.8 200.8

Arkansas 34.8% 29,568 170.8 202.1 37.4% 137,785 112.2 148.5

California 16.7% 267,188 397.3 391.9 13.8% 724,775 270.6 301.4

Colorado 24.1% 90,833 336.2 321.3 19.9% 227,235 234.3 253.7

Connecticut 23.2% 23,800 242.3 269.2 23.6% 106,140 180.7 199.2

Delaware 29.8% 12,993 243.3 260.9 29.7% 51,332 180.3 196.4

District of Columbia 12.9% 2,606 512.8 443.2 10.4% 9,086 302.0 335.4

Florida 34.6% 252,834 248.0 250.3 29.4% 845,265 174.7 188.5

Georgia 32.5% 135,019 221.1 253.1 31.6% 505,551 148.1 185.9

Hawaii 40.7% 14,334 554.5 441.7 23.5% 33,000 387.3 337.4

Idaho 23.7% 22,543 258.1 252.1 22.3% 72,605 166.5 195.3

Illinois 17.1% 80,978 205.6 236.8 19.6% 356,484 140.4 170.0

Indiana 26.1% 67,700 173.0 193.3 29.2% 289,967 112.9 138.8

Iowa 16.3% 17,400 175.9 197.2 20.1% 84,041 115.0 142.1

Kansas 24.1% 21,657 185.8 214.7 27.9% 100,254 120.7 152.6

Kentucky 29.6% 38,242 180.9 200.5 32.2% 165,343 122.4 144.5

Louisiana 34.5% 43,227 196.3 229.7 36.4% 189,817 139.2 169.1

Maine 23.8% 10,223 213.7 238.3 24.5% 39,439 153.6 177.3

Maryland 33.9% 86,142 328.1 316.4 30.3% 291,249 229.8 235.5

Massachusetts 13.7% 33,786 335.5 341.1 13.7% 117,319 242.1 254.9

Michigan 16.0% 63,284 175.4 205.2 19.1% 289,245 114.3 146.7

Minnesota 15.7% 41,658 234.2 248.6 17.0% 170,766 157.7 186.0

Mississippi 42.4% 24,336 181.5 205.5 44.9% 117,216 122.8 150.9

Missouri 24.2% 58,260 183.7 209.8 27.7% 254,397 121.3 151.2

Montana 23.8% 9,985 257.0 260.0 22.2% 35,112 173.5 196.3

Nebraska 22.9% 15,531 199.6 205.1 25.3% 68,947 124.8 150.2

Nevada 33.6% 51,117 289.0 269.5 26.5% 136,291 201.3 211.6

New Hampshire 21.7% 11,760 271.2 265.7 21.4% 41,873 195.4 199.0

New Jersey 18.9% 59,100 286.2 321.7 19.8% 234,980 209.8 239.9

New Mexico 35.9% 21,655 214.1 226.4 35.7% 96,681 142.0 164.4

New York 17.2% 46,970 283.3 317.8 19.6% 314,150 184.5 230.9

North Carolina 28.2% 113,856 220.9 250.0 27.0% 426,331 144.8 182.6

North Dakota 20.7% 4,606 236.8 232.7 20.5% 16,692 169.6 177.3

Ohio 24.7% 89,464 173.2 195.2 28.3% 433,174 112.8 138.1

Oklahoma 38.9% 38,269 185.5 205.9 41.3% 192,507 121.3 149.9

Oregon 20.2% 40,089 300.4 299.4 17.2% 119,438 209.2 231.1

Pennsylvania 22.6% 77,647 196.5 238.4 25.8% 401,508 134.3 169.9

Rhode Island 26.2% 9,428 268.2 261.6 26.5% 35,682 195.7 199.3

South Carolina 33.8% 66,574 222.4 236.2 31.1% 230,501 151.6 175.3

South Dakota 23.9% 8,113 212.9 218.7 27.0% 30,185 146.0 166.7

Tennessee 30.8% 74,892 223.0 245.7 30.9% 287,236 143.6 183.3

Texas 31.4% 281,540 235.1 258.3 29.7% 1,076,864 151.2 190.7

Utah 18.0% 39,685 294.7 290.2 17.7% 110,994 204.8 237.2

Vermont 18.2% 2,886 220.4 237.4 17.0% 12,534 163.4 168.9

Virginia 35.5% 135,211 326.7 323.0 31.4% 442,214 216.5 236.7

Washington 21.8% 88,853 339.2 347.7 18.8% 252,482 229.9 264.7

West Virginia 41.2% 12,601 184.0 189.5 40.6% 56,518 126.5 135.8

Wisconsin 14.4% 32,872 199.2 212.1 15.6% 129,347 134.6 153.5

Wyoming 33.3% 7,747 244.0 248.2 32.0% 25,908 179.6 190.0

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of March 2021. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 

months, from March 2020 to March 2021.

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 23.3 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 24.2 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 10.4 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 44.9 percent in 

Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.
State of the US Housing Market

$11.7

$22.4

$34.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt Household equity Total Value

$0.41

$0.44

$7.5

$3.29

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Home Equity loans Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, eMBS and Urban Institute. Last updated April 2020. 

Note Top: Single family includes 1-4 family mortgages. The home equity number is grossed up from Fed totals to include the value of households and 

the non-financial business sector. Note Bottom: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, credit 

unions and otherfinancial companies.

The Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds Report has indicated a gradually increasing total value of the housing 

market, driven primarily by growing home equity since 2012. Mortgage debt outstanding increased slightly from 

$11.5 trillion in Q3 2020 to $11.7 trillion in Q4 2020 while total household equity increased from $21.7 trillion to 

$22.4 trillion. The total value of the housing market reached $34.1 trillion in Q4 2020, 33.5 percent higher than 

the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Agency MBS account for 64.5 percent of the total mortgage debt outstanding, 

private-label securities make up 3.5 percent, and unsecuritized first liens make up 28.2 percent. Home equity 

loans comprise the remaining 3.8 percent of the total.
State of the US Housing Market

As of March 2021, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $7.73 trillion: 42.4 percent Fannie Mae, 

31.0 percent Freddie Mac, and 26.6 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA 

have grown very rapidly since 2009, although since May 2020, FHA has contracted. FHA comprises 54.6 percent of 

total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 39.6 percent. Note that during the pandemic the GSEs 

have been growing faster than Ginnie Mae, courtesy of borrowers with home price appreciation moving from FHA 

to conventional refinances and saving on the mortgage insurance premium.

$3.28

$2.05

$2.40

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

$1.1

$0.8

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources:eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2021.
3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Outstanding Volume Share <3.0 3.0-3.49 3.5-4.0 >4.0 Avg Coup Avg. Coup

State of the US Housing Market

 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of March 2021. Average coupon is weighted by remaining principal balance. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural

Development. Data as of March 2021.

As of March 2021, the average coupon on outstanding Ginnie Mae pools was 3.17 percent, declining steadily over 

time. The share of outstanding MBS pools with coupons below 3.0 percent has grown exponentially in 2020 and 

early 2021 due to plummeting rates. The bottom chart shows that loans originated since 2019 now comprise over 

half, 55.5 percent, of outstanding as older vintages continue to refinance in substantial numbers.

Outstanding Ginnie Balance, by Coupon 

Outstanding Ginnie Volume, by Vintage 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pre-2008 2008-2013 2014-2018 2019-Present OutstandingVolume Share
Debt,

$9,833

mortgages,

household 

State of the US Housing Market

In March 2021, a total of 525,783 Ginnie Mae loans were in forbearance, 13,953 of which were removed from pools 

(i.e. liquidated) during the month. Most liquidated loans (11,001) were FHA. Forborne loans removed from pools in 

March 2021 had measurably higher note rates and were more likely to be purchase loans than forborne loans that 

remain in pools.

All loans in forbearance – March 2021

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share PurchaseShare Loan Count

Ginnie 660 4.0 $168,768 77.9% 70.1% 525,783

Bank 675 4.1 $131,793 73.4% 76.9% 70,521

Nonbank 658 4.0 $174,359 78.5% 69.3% 455,262

FHA 656 4.1 $165,475 78.6% 72.5% 380,703

Bank 669 4.2 $120,759 74.2% 79.0% 51,646

Nonbank 655 4.0 $172,571 79.2% 71.7% 329,057

VA 668 3.7 $216,102 70.1% 49.9% 99,271

Bank 686 3.8 $193,230 68.1% 66.5% 14,841

Nonbank 665 3.7 $219,834 70.6% 47.0% 84,430

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021. *Averages weighted by remaining principal balance of loans.

Loans in forbearance and removed from pools – March 2021

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share PurchaseShare Loan Count

Ginnie 668 4.1 $176,000 74.6% 74.3% 13,953

Bank 675 4.2 $148,000 73.3% 80.0% 6,556

Nonbank 665 4.1 $204,000 75.7% 70.3% 7,397

FHA 664 4.2 $170,000 75.7% 77.9% 11,001

Bank 671 4.3 $142,000 74.1% 82.7% 5,098

Nonbank 660 4.2 $198,000 76.9% 74.5% 5,903

VA 683 3.8 $227,500 64.5% 52.9% 2,302

Bank 686 3.9 $203,716 64.1% 62.4% 1,038

Nonbank 681 3.7 $248,000 64.8% 45.6% 1,264

Loans in forbearance that remain in pools – March 2021

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share PurchaseShare Loan Count

Ginnie 660 4.0 $168,908 78.0% 70.1% 511,786

Bank 675 4.1 $131,719 73.2% 76.7% 64,717

Nonbank 658 4.0 $174,116 78.6% 69.3% 447,069

FHA 656 4.1 $165,676 78.7% 72.4% 369,656

Bank 668 4.2 $120,122 74.1% 78.7% 47,108

Nonbank 655 4.0 $172,382 79.2% 71.7% 322,548

VA 668 3.7 $216,185 70.2% 49.8% 96,971

Bank 686 3.8 $194,053 68.2% 66.8% 13,874

Nonbank 665 3.7 $219,560 70.7% 47.0% 83,097
State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of March 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

The share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance is higher for nonbank issuers than for bank issuers for two reasons: 

(1) more recent origination is more likely to be forborne and comprises a larger share of the non-bank servicing 

portfolio, and (2) banks have been more aggressive in buying forborne loans out of Ginnie Mae pools. Delinquent 

buyouts by nonbank issuers continue to remain muted relative to total nonbank loans removed from pools, but 

have edged up compared to delinquent buyouts by bank issuers (bottom charts, yellow areas).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

Bank Issuers

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

Nonbank Issuers

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Bank Forbearance Nonbank Forbearance All Forbearance Forbearance Share

Share of Ginnie Mae Loans in Forbearance
State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of March 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

Ginnie Mae delinquent loans bought out of pools are more likely to be FHA than VA (top charts, yellow areas) 

and more likely to be higher coupons (bottom chart). In March 2021, 35,744 FHA and 3,915 VA loans were 

bought out. (These counts include all delinquent buyouts, regardless of forbearance status). Despite the 

increase in buyout activity during the pandemic, the vast majority of loans removed from pools have been 

payoffs triggered by ultra-low rates (blue areas).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

FHA

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

VA

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

Number of Loans Removed from Pools by Coupon

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

<3.5 Other

<3.5 Loss Mitigation

<3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

<3.5 Mortgagor Payoff

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

>=3.5 Other

>=3.5 Loss Mitigation

>=3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

>=3.5 Mortgagor Payoff

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.
State of the US Housing Market

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume

Portfolio PLS securitization FHA/VA securitization GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2021.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1

First Lien Origination Share

2021 is off to a strong start for first-lien originations with $1.31 trillion in mortgages originated during the first 

quarter. The share of portfolio originations was 25.6 percent in Q1 2021, down from the 29.2 percent share in Q1 

2020, but up from 23.0 percent for the full year 2020.. The Q1 2021 GSE share was 57.4 percent, compared to 45.7 

percent in Q1 2020. The FHA/VA share in Q1 2021 was 15.9 percent, down compared to 23.2 percent in the same 

quarter last year. The PLS share was 1.0 percent in Q1 2021, down from 1.9 percent in Q1 2020, and a fraction of 

its share in the pre-bubble years. The smaller share of portfolio and PLS in 2020 reflects the impact of COVID-19, 

which made it difficult to originate mortgages without government support. The higher GSE share reflects the large 

amount of refinances done throughthis channel.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2021.

25.6%

1.03%

15.9%

57.4%

$0.335

$0.013

$0.209

$0.749
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household 

mortgages,

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 $266.9 $225.7 $16.0 $508.6

2020 $327.0 $423.5 $24.9 $775.4

2021 YTD $88.6 $132.5 $6.3 $227.4

2021 % Change YOY 14.5% 69.2% 38.1% 41.9%

2021 Ann. $354.6 $529.9 $25.2 $909.6

 

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 $597.4 $445.2 $1,042.6 $508.6 $1,551.2

2020 $1,343.4 $1,064.1 $2,407.5 $775.4 $3,182.9

2021 YTD $404.3 $351.7 $756.0 $227.4 $983.4

2021 % Change YOY 115.5% 165.9% 136.3% 41.9% 104.8%

2021 Ann. $1,617.3 $1,406.8 $3,024.1 $909.6 $3,933.7

Sources:eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom).

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of March 2021.

Agency gross issuance in 2020 was historic at $3.18 trillion, surpassing every full year of agency origination in the 21st century, 

including the previous high of $2.09 trillion in 2003. 2020 agency issuance finished $1.63 trillion dollars higher than 2019 full 

year volume of $1.55 trillion, up 105.2 percent. Ginnie Mae gross issuance for the year was up by 52.5 percent and GSE gross 

issuance was up by 130.9 percent. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA was up by 22.5 percent and VA origination was up by 

87.6 percent; 2020 was the first year VA production was higher than FHA production. Strong agency issuance continues in 

2021, with a total of $983.4 billion issued through March, up 104.8 percent compared to the same period last year.
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household 

mortgages,

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 $35.9 $58.0 $1.9 $95.7

2020 -$52.5 $71.0 $1.3 $19.9

2021 -$25.9 $20.4 -$0.9 -$6.4

2021 % Change YOY -533.0% 15.5% -207.2% -126.1%

2021 Ann. -$103.5 $81.6 -$3.6 -$25.5

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $53.5 $11.8 $65.3 $89.6 $154.9

2014 -$4.0 $30.0 $26.0 $61.6 $87.7

2015 $3.5 $65.0 $68.4 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $60.5 $66.8 $127.4 $126.1 $261.6

2017 $83.7 $77.0 $160.7 $132.3 $293.0

2018 $81.9 $67.6 $149.4 $112.0 $261.5

2019 $87.4 $110.3 $197.8 $95.7 $293.5

2020 $289.3 $343.5 $632.8 $19.9 $652.7

2021 $80.4 $126.2 $206.5 -$6.4 $200.1

2021 % Change YOY 121.0% 310.3% 207.7% -126.1% 118.5%

2021 Ann. $321.4 $504.6 $826.0 -$25.5 $800.5

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian 

Housing and theDepartment of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of March 2021.

2020 proved to be very robust for agency net issuance, with $652.7 billion of net new supply, up 122.4 percent 

compared with the same period of 2019. 2020 Ginnie Mae net issuance was $19.9 billion, comprising 3.0 percent of total 

agency net issuance. This is down substantially from 2019 levels, reflecting a contraction in FHA securities outstanding; 

in the first three months of 2021 Ginnie Mae net issuance was -$6.4 billion, driven by FHA contraction.
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

 

eb

eho d 

Sources:eMBS and Urban Institut$e9. ,833

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of March 2021.

househol

mortgages,

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates rise, increasing when 

interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the same 

month in previous years. The March 2021 gross agency issuance of $339.7 was significantly higher than the same 

month in 2020, as the impact of lower rates on volume was not seen until April of 2020.

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.9 $2.5 $9.2 $17.6

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.4 $3.4 $4.6 $9.3

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.8 $10.3 $5.6 $17.6

Apr-19 $33.1 $30.8 $32.9 $96.8 $1.3 $10.8 $8.3 $20.4

May-19 $44.5 $34.3 $38.8 $117.6 $6.7 $9.8 $9.4 $26.0

Jun-19 $44.6 $34.0 $43.3 $121.9 $1.9 $5.9 $9.0 $16.8

Jul-19 $51.7 $36.9 $45.9 $134.5 $10.9 $10.1 $11.0 $32.0

Aug-19 $71.1 $50.4 $51.2 $172.6 $20.8 $17.1 $8.7 $46.6

Sep-19 $67.1 $43.0 $52.0 $162.1 $14.1 $7.5 $6.5 $28.0

Oct-19 $65.0 $46.2 $58.4 $169.6 $7.4 $7.1 $11.9 $26.5

Nov-19 $68.1 $50.7 $54.3 $173.1 $5.2 $8.6 $4.1 $18.0

Dec-19 $62.1 $52.5 $52.7 $167.3 $10.1 $17.3 $7.4 $34.7

Jan-20 $61.7 $51.4 $56.0 $169.0 $9.1 $16.5 $8.6 $34.2

Feb-20 $56.5 $39.5 $51.2 $147.2 $9.4 $7.9 $7.1 $24.4

Mar-20 $69.5 $41.1 $53.0 $163.9 $17.9 $6.3 $8.8 $33.0

Apr-20 $101.6 $76.3 $61.4 $239.3 $30.5 $27.5 $10.2 $68.2

May-20 $124.3 $70.6 $60.8 $255.7 $35.2 $8.2 $5.7 $49.1

Jun-20 $118.9 $78.1 $58.5 $255.4 $30.0 $15.9 $1.3 $47.2

Jul-20 $125.0 $108.1 $66.5 $299.5 $23.4 $38.0 -$15.5 $45.9

Aug-20 $137.6 $113.6 $73.6 $324.8 $34.2 $43.4 -$4.1 $73.5

Sep-20 $122.9 $102.1 $72.4 $297.5 $16.5 $29.9 $1.0 $47.5

Oct-20 $142.3 $124.8 $72.6 $339.7 $28.9 $48.3 -$0.3 $76.9

Nov-20 $152.4 $131.5 $72.6 $356.5 $31.4 $48.4 -$4.5 $75.3

Dec-20 $130.8 $126.7 $76.9 $334.4 $22.8 $53.1 $1.7 $77.5

Jan-21 $141.6 $117.3 $78.2 $337.1 $25.9 $37.9 -$6.5 $57.3

Feb-21 $118.8 $115.5 $72.3 $306.6 $16.8 $44.3 -$0.9 $60.2

Mar-21 $143.9 $118.9 $76.9 $339.7 $37.6 $44.0 $1.0 $82.6

Monthly Agency Issuance
$0.4 

$59.7 

$20.1 

$0.0 $1.6 

$8.0 

$5.1 

$0.9 $0.8 

$18.6 

$3.3 

$0.5

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

<=1.5 2 2.5 >=3.0

Streamlined Cash-out Not streamlined, not cash-out

Coupon

$ billions

Ginnie Mae Refinance Issuance by Type: YTD 2021

US Agency Market, Originations

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of March 2021.

The FHA refinance share stood at 48.3 percent in March 2021, below the 79.1 percent refi share for Freddie 

originations, the 77.9 percent share for Fannie, and the 79.3 percent share for the VA. The total Ginnie refinance 

share stood at 62.5 percent in March. Refinances as a share of all originations grew during 2019 and 2020 as 

interest rates fell. The bottom section shows that most of 2021 Ginnie Mae refinances YTD, predominantly 

streamlined, were securitized in 2-2.5 coupon pools. Cash-out refinance volume remains muted due to restrictions 

Ginnie Mae put in place in late 2019, to combat the “churning” problem.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

Mar-19

Jun-19

Sep-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Dec-20

Mar-21

Percent Refi at Issuance

Refi share Freddie Fannie Ginnie FHA VA

79%

78%

63%

48%

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of March 2021.
Credit Box

39.4%

46.2%

70.0%

51.9%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 70.0 percent in March 2021, down from 72.0 

percent in March 2020. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of the Ginnie Mae 

purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 46.2 percent and 

39.4 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase originations, respectively. The bottom table shows that 

based on mortgages originated in March 2021, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an 

average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a higher LTV, a similar DTI, and pay a 

slightly higher rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 292,423 311,250 307,958 322,965 247,398 303,775 275,574 313,368 

Credit Score 746.3 756.2 749.4 759.0 688.0 704.6 720.8 743.9 

LTV (%) 87.6 78.9 86.8 79.3 96.9 95.8 91.6 83.4 

DTI (%) 34.6 35.6 34.0 34.8 41.4 41.9 37.5 36.9 

Loan Rate (%) 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of March 2021.
Credit Box

77.7%

51.4%

79.6%

70.0%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Breakdown

 

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: “Other“refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and theDepartment of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 

2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it 

consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuerreported LTV. Data as of March 2021.

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 77.7 percent of FHA loans, 51.4 percent of VA loans, and 79.6 percent 

of other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in March 2021. The bottom table shows that 

based on mortgages originated in March 2021, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an 

average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a higher LTV, a similar DTI, and pay a 

slightly higher rate. Note that FHA’s average credit score for FTHBs was slightly higher compared to the same 

for repeat buyers (677.7 vs. 676.1)

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 240,669 253,716 298,795 363,547 174,640 185,563 247,398 303,775 

Credit Score 677.7 676.1 712.8 731.0 700.5 703.6 688.0 704.6 

LTV (%) 95.5 94.1 99.8 97.0 99.3 99.3 96.9 95.8 

DTI (%) 43.0 43.6 39.6 41.0 34.9 35.3 41.4 41.9 

Loan Rate (%) 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Includes only purchase loans. Data as of March 2021.
eb

, 33

household 

mo tg

$9 8

rtgages,

Debt,

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 292,995 655 715 742 780 799 733 

Fannie 115,473 688 734 760 794 802 752 

Freddie 83,861 693 726 763 789 802 755 

Ginnie 93,661 632 653 682 727 772 692 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 843,550 684 724 767 792 806 755 

Fannie 407,407 699 738 773 795 807 762 

Freddie 317,329 694 730 769 792 805 758 

Ginnie 118,814 643 672 717 770 797 718 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,136,545 674 715 762 790 804 749 

Fannie 522,880 696 734 771 794 806 760 

Freddie 401,190 694 729 767 791 804 757 

Ginnie 212,475 638 662 700 755 790 707 

 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 93,661 632 653 682 727 772 692 

FHA 55,927 627 646 670 701 740 677 

VA 28,009 646 673 720 769 795 720 

Other 9,725 645 662 693 732 764 699 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 118,814 643 672 717 770 797 718 

FHA 36,853 627 648 675 705 746 680 

VA 80,668 659 695 745 783 802 736 

Other 1,293 654 674 708 749 779 712 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 212,475 638 662 700 755 790 707 

FHA 92,780 627 647 672 703 742 678 

VA 108,677 654 689 739 780 800 732 

Other 11,018 645 663 695 734 767 700 

March 2021 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and theDepartmentof

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of March 2021.

In March 2021, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 700 versus 771 for Fannie Mae and 767 for Freddie Mac. 

Note that the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 638 for Ginnie Mae, versus 696 for Fannie Mae and 694 for 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 672, VA loans have a median 

FICO score of 739 and other loans have a median FICO score of 695.
March 2021 Credit Box at a Glance

tgages,

, 3

Debt,

household 

mortg

$9 83

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 293,027 72.0 80.0 94.0 96.5 100.0 87.0

Fannie 115,388 65.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 82.7

Freddie 83,883 66.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 82.2

Ginnie 93,756 94.2 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.6

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 884,053 42.0 55.0 69.0 80.0 90.0 66.8

Fannie 407,405 39.0 51.0 64.0 75.0 80.0 61.8

Freddie 317,343 41.0 54.0 67.0 75.0 80.0 63.9

Ginnie 159,305 65.4 79.0 89.0 96.4 99.3 85.3

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,177,080 45.0 59.0 75.0 87.0 96.5 71.8

Fannie 522,793 41.0 54.0 69.0 80.0 90.0 66.4

Freddie 401,226 44.0 57.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 67.7

Ginnie 253,061 71.7 83.8 94.9 97.4 100.0 89.5

 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 93,756 94.2 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.6

FHA 55,976 93.9 95.0 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.2

VA 28,022 93.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.3 98.4

Other 9,758 95.9 99.3 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.3

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 159,305 65.4 79.0 89.0 96.4 99.3 85.3

FHA 55,390 73.4 81.4 90.8 96.4 97.7 87.4

VA 102,574 61.8 76.2 87.9 96.4 100.0 84.0

Other 1,341 78.1 87.2 95.0 99.7 101.0 91.7

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 253,061 71.7 83.8 94.9 97.4 100.0 89.5

FHA 111,366 79.7 89.3 96.2 96.5 97.0 91.3

VA 130,596 64.9 79.9 91.1 100.0 100.6 87.1

Other 11,099 92.8 98.6 100.9 101.0 101.0 98.4

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and theDepartment of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV.Data as of March 2021.

In March 2021, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 94.9 percent for Ginnie Mae, compared to 69 percent for 

Fannie Mae and 70 percent for Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 100 percent for Ginnie Mae, versus 90 percent 

for both Fannie and Freddie. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.2 for FHA, 91.1 for VA and 

100.9 for other programs.
Debt,

,833

hous d

mortgages,

$9

ehol

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 292,534 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 49.0 36.9

Fannie 115,555 21.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 46.0 34.9

Freddie 83,882 21.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 46.0 34.5

Ginnie 93,097 28.3 35.0 42.2 48.6 53.7 41.4

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 766,786 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 46.0 32.6

Fannie 407,399 18.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.2

Freddie 317,328 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.5

Ginnie 42,059 21.9 29.9 37.3 46.1 52.4 37.3

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,059,320 20.0 26.0 34.0 42.0 47.0 33.8

Fannie 522,954 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 46.0 32.8

Freddie 401,210 19.0 26.0 34.0 41.0 45.0 32.9

Ginnie 135,156 26.1 33.0 41.0 47.9 53.4 40.1

 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 93,097 28.3 35.0 42.2 48.6 53.7 41.4

FHA 55,750 30.6 37.4 44.1 49.7 54.3 43.0

VA 27,620 26.3 33.2 40.9 47.9 53.5 40.3

Other 9,727 25.5 30.5 35.9 40.4 43.3 35.1

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 42,059 21.9 29.9 37.3 46.1 52.4 37.3

FHA 18,040 26.5 32.7 41.4 48.6 53.8 40.4

VA 23,258 19.6 27.1 34.5 43.5 50.6 35.1

Other 761 17.5 22.9 30.1 36.9 41.6 29.9

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 135,156 26.1 33.0 41.0 47.9 53.4 40.1

FHA 73,790 29.5 36.3 43.6 49.5 54.2 42.4

VA 50,878 22.8 30.5 38.2 46.2 52.5 38.0

Other 10,488 24.7 30.0 35.6 40.2 43.2 34.7

March 2021 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and theDepartment of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of March 2021.

In March 2021, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 41.0 percent, considerably higher than the 

33.0 percent median DTI for Fannie Mae and 34.0 percent for Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 

53.4 percent, also much higher than the 46.0 percent DTI for Fannie Mae and 45.0 percent for Freddie Mac. Within 

the Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 43.6 percent, versus 38.2 percent for VA and 35.6 percent for 

other lending programs.
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

767

771

700

762

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of March 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in March 2021 was 762, up considerably since the start 

of 2019, owing to the refinance wave, which higher FICO borrowers take advantage of with greater frequency. 

In addition, the increases in refinance activity have been much more dramatic at the GSEs than at Ginnie Mae, 

shifting the composition toward higher FICO score borrowers. Note since early 2019, the median FICO scores 

for Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie borrowers have moved up for both purchase and refinance loans, although 

refinance FICOs have started to dip a bit. The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrower FICOs is 

considerably wider for purchase loans than for refi loans.
Credit Box: Historical

94.9

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

The median LTV for Ginnie Mae loans was 94.9 percent in March 2021, much higher than the 70 percent LTV for 

Freddie Mac and 69 percent for Fannie Mae. Median debt-to-income ratios for Ginnie Mae loans have 

historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher than for the GSEs. DTIs increased in the 2017-2018 period 

for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with the movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are 

very typical in an environment of rising interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies witnessed 

measurable declines in DTI, beginning in early 2019, driven by lower interest rates, with larger declines in GSE 

securities.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of March 2021.

75.0

70.0

69.0

33.0

41.0

34.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19 Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20 Mar-21

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI
Credit Box: Historical

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97

FHA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=660 DTI <=45, FICO>660

DTI>45, FICO <=660 DTI>45, FICO>660

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97

VA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=700 DTI <=45, FICO>700

DTI>45, FICO <=700 DTI>45, FICO>700

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of April 2021.

DTI is a much weaker predictor of performance than FICO score. The top chart shows FHA borrowers with higher 

DTIs do default more than those with lower DTIs, but the differences are modest, as evidenced by the fact that the 

black line is very close to the blue line and the grey line is not that much above the yellow line. By contrast, FICO 

makes a much larger difference, as can be seen by comparing the blue line to the yellow line or the black line to the 

gray line. And low DTI/low FICO borrowers default much less than high DTI/high FICO borrowers, as can be seen 

by comparing the blue line to the gray line. The bottom chart, for VA borrowers illustrates the same point; DTI is a 

much weaker predictor of loan performance than credit score.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of April 2021.
96%

83%

57%

39%

31%

95%

87%

60%

37%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

95%

82%

59%

40%

33%

94%

85%

58%

36%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

February 2019- April 2019 February 2021- April 2021

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

35 ≤ DTI < 45

99% 93%

80%

62%

49%

100% 98% 94%

65%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In February 2021- April 

2021, Ginnie Mae accounted for 94 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, 

compared to just 28 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI 

bucket looks a lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In February 2021− April 2021, Ginnie Mae’s share of 

issuance was higher for DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share of 

loans with a DTI of 45 and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 94 percent; it was 58-60 percent for the same FICO 

in the lower DTI buckets. Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear the GSEs have stepped up their 

higher LTV lending for borrowers with FICOs of 700 or higher for DTIs less than 45 (the less than 35 and the 35-

45 buckets).
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

February 2019-April 2019

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.8% 4.3% 2.5% 6.4% 8.0% 24.0%

35 −45 5.7% 8.9% 4.7% 11.2% 9.8% 40.3%

≥ 45 5.6% 9.4% 4.5% 9.6% 6.7% 35.7%

All 14.1% 22.6% 11.6% 27.2% 24.5% 100.0%

February 2021-April 2021

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 1.7% 4.9% 3.1% 9.1% 12.9% 31.7%

35 −45 3.1% 8.9% 5.2% 12.9% 12.4% 42.4%

≥ 45 2.5% 6.8% 3.2% 7.5% 5.9% 25.9%

All 7.3% 20.6% 11.5% 29.4% 31.2% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

February 2019-April 2019 69.2% 19.4% 35.3%

February 2021-April 2021 60.3% 7.2% 14.3%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 60.3 percent of its issuances in the February 2021-April 2021 

period having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 7.2 percent for the GSEs. Both the GSEs and Ginnie Mae have 

decreased their high-LTV lending share from February 2019− April 2019, with the GSEs falling more 

dramatically from 19.4 percent. The share of high-LTV agency loans going to highest FICO borrowers (i.e. above 

750) has increased from the February 2019-April 2019 period to the February 2021-April 2021 period, as has 

the share of lower DTI borrowers (below 35).
Nonbank Originators

 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural

Development. Data as of March 2021.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

93.6%

77.1%

73.2%

72.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-14

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

Jan-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Apr-18

Sep-18

Feb-19

Jul-19

Dec-19

May-20

Oct-20

Mar-21

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-13

Feb-14

Jul-14

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

Jan-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Apr-18

Sep-18

Feb-19

Jul-19

Dec-19

May-20

Oct-20

Mar-21

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

The nonbank origination share has been rising steadily for all three agencies since 2013. The Ginnie Mae 

nonbank share has been consistently higher than the GSEs, standing at 93.6 percent in March 2021. Fannie’s 

nonbank share remained steady in March at 73.2 percent, while Freddie’s declined slightly, to 72.3 percent 

(note that these numbers can be volatile on a month-to-month basis). Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac 

all have higher nonbank origination shares for refi activity than for purchase activity. Freddie Mac’s nonbank 

share is the lowest among the three agencies for purchase loans, while Fannie Mae’s nonbank share is the 

lowest for refi loans.
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural

Development. Data as of March 2021.

In March 2021, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share rose to 93.6 percent. The nonbank originator share for FHA also 

rose to 94.6 percent in March. The nonbank originator share for VA was higher than last month at 93.0 percent 

and the nonbank originator share for other loans, which can fluctuate quite a bit month to month, rose to 

91.7percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-14

Jul-14

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

Jan-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Apr-18

Sep-18

Feb-19

Jul-19

Dec-19

May-20

Oct-20

Mar-21

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-14

Jul-14

Dec-14

May-15

Oct-15

Mar-16

Aug-16

Jan-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Apr-18

Sep-18

Feb-19

Jul-19

Dec-19

May-20

Oct-20

Mar-21

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

94%

93%

92%
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of March 2021.

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

780

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

772

762

758

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. FICO scores for loans originated by 

nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, where the differentials between banks and 

non-banks are small, FICO scores for both have increased since early 2014. The sharp rise in bank and non-bank FICOs 

reflects an increase in GSE refinance activity, producing a shift in their business mix toward higher FICO borrowers. 

Within the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations has been consistently higher than their non-bank 

counterparts, reflecting the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks. The bank/non-bank FICO differential as 

narrowed over the past 2 years, as non-banks are relatively more active in refi lendings, which has higher borrower 

FICO scores.
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

Between early 2017 and early 2019, there was a substantial increase in DTIs for both Ginnie Mae and the GSEs, for 

banks and nonbanks. Over the subsequent two years, this has mostly reversed in the Ginnie Mae space, and more than 

completely reversed for the GSEs, leaving GSE DTIs as low as they have been at any point since 2014. As interest rates 

increased, DTIs rose, because borrower payments were driven up relative to incomes. With the fall in interest rates 

over the past two years, DTIs have dropped.
650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of March 2021.

The median FICO score for Ginnie Mae nonbank originators remained steady in March 2021. Bank FICOs are 

12 points above non-banks. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent for all categories of 

government lending.

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2021.
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of March 2021.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA borrowers experienced notable increases during 2017 and 2018 

for both banks and nonbank originators, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are 

expected in a rising rate environment. After peaking in January 2019, Ginnie DTIs have reverted to 2017 levels, 

as rates have declined.

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of March 2021.
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of March 2021.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Lakeview $177,794 11.4% 11.4%

2 PennyMac $172,500 11.1% 22.5%

3 Freedom Home Mortgage $159,056 10.2% 32.7%

4 Wells Fargo $141,856 9.1% 41.8%

5 Nationstar $77,575 5.0% 46.8%

6 Quicken Loans $61,643 4.0% 50.8%

7 Newrez $44,957 2.9% 53.7%

8 US Bank $43,333 2.8% 56.4%

9 Carrington Mortgage $38,499 2.5% 58.9%

10 USAA Federal Savings Bank $35,612 2.3% 61.2%

11 Caliber Home Loans $34,648 2.2% 63.4%

12 Navy Federal Credit Union $26,186 1.7% 65.1%

13 Amerihome Mortgage $25,501 1.6% 66.7%

14 Truist Bank $24,573 1.6% 68.3%

15 United WholeSale Mortgage $20,751 1.3% 69.7%

16 The Money Source $20,344 1.3% 71.0%

17 Home Point Financial Corporation $19,665 1.3% 72.2%

18 Loan Depot $19,557 1.3% 73.5%

19 Guild Mortgage $15,612 1.0% 74.5%

20 Midfirst Bank $14,948 1.0% 75.4%

21 Planet Home Lending $14,937 1.0% 76.4%

22 JP Morgan Chase $14,553 0.9% 77.3%

23 Citizens Bank $12,360 0.8% 78.1%

24 Mortgage Research Center $12,237 0.8% 78.9%

25 M&T Bank $11,773 0.8% 79.7%

26 PHH Mortgage Corporation $11,722 0.8% 80.4%

27 Flagstar Bank $10,848 0.7% 81.1%

28 Idaho Housing and Finance Association $9,574 0.6% 81.7%

29 New American Funding $9,316 0.6% 82.3%

30 Bank of America $8,169 0.5% 82.9%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of March 2021, over half (50.8 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 firms 

collectively own 82.9 percent. Nineteen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 11 are depository 

institutions.
77.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

March 2021

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In December 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. In March 2021, Wells Fargo’s holdings of MSRs dipped to $141.9 

billion, below the $177.8, $172.5, and $159.1 billion held by Lakeview, PennyMac, and Freedom Home Mortgage, 

respectively (all nonbanks). Nationstar (also nonbank) makes up the remainder of the top five largest holders of 

MSRs, owning $77.6 billion respectively as of March 2021. Nonbanks collectively owned servicing rights for 77.5 

percent of all outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by Ginnie Mae in March 2021. In December 2013, 

the nonbank share was much smaller at 27.7 percent.

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of March 2021.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$177,794

$172,500

$159,056

$141,856

$77,575

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20

1. Lakeview 2. PennyMac

3. Freedom Home Mortgage 4. Wells Fargo

5. Nationstar

UPB ($ millions)

March 2021
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Apr-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2012 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2021.

While prepayment speeds on all securities have risen since early 2019, the speed increase has been especially 

dramatic in 2020 and continuing into early 2021, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly 

due to a sharp drop in rates. At this point, the speeds on GSE securities have largely converged with those on 

Ginnie II securities, as the former have ramped up more quickly in 2020. The faster Ginnie speeds from 2013-

early 2020 reflected the growing share of VA loans, which tend to prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. In 

addition, FHA puts fewer restrictions on streamlined refinances, and some of the upfront mortgage insurance 

premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. Prepayment speeds have declined the past month, and may 

decline further over the next few months, given the more than 30 bps increase in mortgage rates since year end 

2020. Even so, rates remain very low in a historical context.

36%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

45%

42%

30%
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2021.

Speeds on the 2015 3.5s and the 2016 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have been 

increasing since early 2019; the speed increases have been especially dramatic in 2020 and continuing into early 

2021 due to a sharp drop in rates, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly. The speeds on 

the 2015-issued Ginnie 3.5s have been slightly lower than their conventional counterparts since August 2020, 

although the speeds on the 2016-issued Ginnie Mae 3.0s remain very comparable to their conventional 

counterparts. The faster historical speeds on the Ginnie Mae cohorts reflect the fact that 2015 and 2016 Ginnie 

originations consist of a large component of VA loans, which prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. The 

FHA streamlined programs are likely another contributor to the historically faster speeds. Prepayment speeds 

have declined the past month, and may decline further over the next few months, given the more than 30 bps 

increase in mortgage rates since year end 2020.

44%

40%

44%

43%
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2021.

The charts below show the behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-issued 4.0s, the largest coupon 

cohorts of those vintage years. Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s were prepaying faster than their 

conventional counterparts from late 2017 to March 2020, due primarily to fast VA prepayment speeds. 

Similarly, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s prepaid more slowly than their conventional counterparts until January of 

2019. In 2019, speeds of 2018 4.0s and 2017 3.5s accelerated, and Ginnie II speeds accelerated more than 

their conventional counterparts. However, in early 2020 conventional speeds accelerated more than Ginnie

speeds. Since March 2020, conventional speeds have generally exceeded those of the Ginnie cohorts, although 

the difference between the two has narrowed in recent months, and, for the latest month, both 2017 Ginnie

3.5s and 2018 Ginnie 4s are marginally faster than their conventional counterparts. Prepayment speeds have 

declined the past month, and may decline further over the next few months, given the more than 30 bps 

increase in mortgage rates since year end 2020.

49%

47% 

55%

53%
Prepayments 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2019 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2021.

The charts below show prepayment speeds by loan age for 2019 and 2020 Ginnie II 3.0s. Prepayment speeds on 

both cohorts jumped at the 8-10 month loan age, a more muted jump than earlier cohorts at the same age; they 

then began to converge with conventional speeds more quickly, as a result of GinnieMae actions to curtail the 

“churning” problem. These actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA speeds are especially 

high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling requirements so that if 

loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is ineligible for securitization. 

Ginnie’s latest action on this front became effective for securities issued on or after November 1, 2019. It bars 

the securitization of over 90 percent LTV cash-out refinances into Ginnie I and Ginnie II pools (custom pools 

excepted). In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the lender to show that the 

borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance. The recent experience of these cohorts indicates that, as a 

result of these cumulative actions plus the acceleration of speeds in the conventional market in response to 

lower rates, Ginnie Mae speeds on 2019-issued 3.0s have been generally running below their conventional 

counterparts 22 month loan age onwards. 2020 Ginnie II 3.0s show a sharp increase in speeds at the 9-10 

month mark, pushing it well above conventional speeds, but the gaps are narrowing by months 11 and 12.

61.6%

59.4%

49.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2020 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

57.4%

44.1%

41.2%
Reverse and Multifamily Mortgages

$0.86

$5.4

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

Mar-21

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

$ Billions

Issuance Volume

HMBS Issuance Multifamily MBS Issuance

$56.3

$131.4

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Mar-21

N

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

ov-18

Sep-18

Jul-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

-16

Mar-16

May-16

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

$ Billions

Outstanding Volume 

HMBS Oustanding Multifamily MBS Oustanding

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

Monthly issuance of Ginnie Mae reverse mortgages has been volatile over the past three years. After declining in 

2018, volume has slowly improved over the course of 2019 and 2020. In March 2021, issuance fell to $0.86 

billion. Outstanding reverse mortgage securities totaled $56.3 billion in March 2021, up slightly from the 

previous month, reflecting a higher volume of new issuances relative to paydowns. Ginnie Mae multifamily 

issuance has increased considerably over the past year, but there are month to month fluctuations. After 

decreasing in January 2020, Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance has since increased through March 2021 to $5.4

billion. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled $131.4 billion in the first month of 2021.
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Updated May 2021.

$334

$681

$45

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

4.37%

3.21%

0.42% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume was $334 billion per day from January to March 2021, just below the pre-crisis 

peak of $345 billion in 2008. Agency MBS turnover in the first three months of 2021 was also higher than the 

2014-2020 period; in March 2021, average daily MBS turnover was 4.37 percent, above the 2020 average of 

4.05 percent. Note that agency MBS turnover in 2020 and thus far in 2021 was higher than US Treasury 

turnover, a relatively rare occurrence. Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are down from their 

pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover.

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Updated May 2021.
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2020 Q4

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The “other” category includes primarily life insurance companies, state and 

local govts, households, and nonprofits. Data as of Q4 2020.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (21 

percent), commercial banks (24 percent), foreign investors (12 percent), and money market & pension funds (10 

percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares are a fraction of what they once were. The Federal Reserve’s share 

increased from 15 percent in the first quarter of 2020 to 21 percent in the fourth quarter due to substantial 

purchases of MBS in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Despite large Federal Reserve purchases, commercial 

banks continue to be the largest holders of Agency MBS, as they too have dramatically increased their holdings as 

deposits have swelled. Out of their $2.7 trillion in holdings as of the end of April 2021, $2.0 trillion was held by 

the top 25 domestic banks.

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

` Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Mar-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21Mar 31 Apr 07 Apr 14 Apr 21

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1592.0 1716.1 1766.2 1822.4 1852.7 1894.0 1938.1 1966.5 1968.4 1964.8 1987.8 1988.5

Small Domestic 

Banks 535.8 582.3 594.6 607.3 623.7 637.0 650.5 667.7 677.2 675.9 688.9 688.3

Foreign Related 

Banks 42.7 41.5 39.9 45.3 47.1 48.6 50.3 54.2 60 50.3 49.9 54

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 2170.5 2339.9 2400.7 2475.0 2523.5 2579.6 2638.9 2688.4 2705.6 2691.0 2726.6 2730.8

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Small domestic banks includes all domestically chartered commercial banks not 

included in the top 25. Data as of April 2021.

Commercial bank holdings of agency MBS
MBS Ownership

D

$9,833

ebt,

household 

mortgages,

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank Of America Corporation $489,458.0 $364,527.0 $113,413.0 $11,255.0 $263.0 19.40

2 Wells Fargo & Company $254,580.0 $187,217.0 $59,978.0 $6,952.0 $433.0 10.10

3 Jpmorgan Chase & Co. $215,137.0 $130,974.0 $69,432.0 $176.0 $14,555.0 8.50

4 Charles Schwab Bank $166,204.0 $87,536.0 $15,140.0 $63,528.0 $0.0 6.60

5 Truist Bank $113,523.0 $39,959.0 $16,075.0 $57,489.0 $0.0 4.50

6 U.S. Bancorp $99,825.5 $69,428.0 $14,103.4 $16,293.7 $0.5 4.00

7 Citigroup Inc. $85,612.0 $77,162.0 $1,943.0 $4,811.0 $1696.0 3.40

8 Capital One Financial Corporation $76,081.1 $41,868.0 $9,836.6 $23,760.8 $615.8 3.00

9 Bank Of New York Mellon Corp $64,124.0 $46,920.0 $3,280.0 $11,538.0 $2,386.0 2.50

10 Pnc Bank, National Association $50,426.5 $42,478.5 $4,947.9 $1,500.0 $1,500.1 2.00

11 State Street Bank And Trust Company $46,767.2 $20,518.0 $6,806.0 $16,962.2 $2,481.0 1.90

12 Morgan Stanley $36,158.0 $22,827.0 $4,607.0 $8,724.0 $0.0 1.40

13 Usaa Federal Savings Bank $34,733.8 $29,034.4 $2,422.7 $3,276.8 $0.0 1.40

14 Silicon Valley Bank $31,483.5 $21,350.2 $131.2 $10,002.2 $0.0 1.20

15 E*Trade Bank $30,678.8 $19,364.4 $5,910.9 $5,403.5 $0.0 1.20

16 Td Bank Usa/Td Bank Na $28,338.2 $1,710.3 $139.1 $26,392.5 $96.3 1.10

17 Hsbc Bank Usa, National Association $25,279.1 $7,445.0 $9,168.2 $8,664.1 $1.8 1.00

18 Bmo Harris Bank National Association $22,954.0 $4,837.2 $482.7 $17,632.3 $1.9 0.90

19 Ally Bank $21,796.0 $15,536.0 $1,203.0 $2461.0 $2596.0 0.90

20 Keybank National Association $20,622.2 $1,980.7 $470.3 $18,171.2 $0.0 0.80

Total Top 20 $1,913,782 $1,232,673 $339,490 $314,993 $26,626 75.80%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2020.

Out of the $2.5 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of 4Q 2020, $1.9 trillion was agency pass-throughs: 

$1.5 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $391 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $549 billion was agency 

CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $44 billion. In Q4 2020, MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for 

the ninth consecutive quarter. The increase was driven by both GSE pass-throughs and agency CMO holdings, with 

the increase in GSE pass-throughs making the larger contribution.

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63

2016 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

2017 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,385.10 $1,001.61 $383.49 $422.18 $3.06 $34.65

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,445.91 $1,037.93 $407.97 $421.56 $2.90 $36.76

3Q19 $1,975.78 $1,506.92 $1,079.82 $427.10 $428.69 $4.74 $35.44

4Q19 $1,985.38 $1,516.26 $1,089.41 $426.85 $428.99 $4.62 $35.52

1Q20 $2,107.66 $1,621.00 $1,173.36 $448.34 $443.73 $4.65 $37.56

2Q20 $2,195.19 $1,669.93 $1,228.87 $441.06 $478.11 $5.00 $42.14

3Q20 $2,310.42 $1,764.72 $1,349.48 $415.24 $499.50 $4.43 $41.78

4Q20 $2,520.90 $1,928.21 $1,537.54 $390.66 $548.65 $3.94 $40.10

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings
Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of January 2021.

15.3%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

MBS Ownership

$1,158.1

$512.3

$645.8

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: TreasuryInternational Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Foreign investors held 15.3 percent of agency MBS in January 2021, up from a low of 12.0 percent in July 2014, 

but down from 17.0 percent in spring 2020. For the month of January 2021, this represents $1.12 trillion in 

Agency MBS, $484 billion held by foreign private institutions and $637 billion held by foreign institutions. 

While foreign holdings trended up in the first month of 2021, this still represents a drop of $35.5 billion in 

Agency MBS from the peak in spring 2020, all in official holdings.
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of January 2021.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise 70 percent of all 

foreign holdings. Between June 2019 and January 2021, we estimate that Japan has increased their agency 

MBS holdings by $31.33 billion, Taiwan has decreased their holdings by $4.82 billion and China has decreased 

their holdings by $6.92 billion. China and Taiwan have experienced declines since March of 2020; the declines 

in Chinese holdings have been especially dramatic, we estimate Chinese holdings of MBS are down by 

approximately 16 percent from March 2020 through January of 2021.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020

Q3

2020

Q4 

2020Jan-21

Japan 297,016 311,047 305,332 322,155 310,268 305,064 308,033 328,416 14,031 -5,715 16,823 -11,887 -5,204 2,969 20,383

Taiwan 265,524 263,018 261,740 269,133 267,918 264,270 262,453 260,636 -2,506 -1,278 7,393 -1,215 -3,648 -1,817 -1,817

China 227,357 233,783 231,753 260,479 239,045 206,861 212,317 218,933 6,426 -2,030 28,726 -21,434 -32,184 5,456 6,616

Luxembourg 47,646 46,641 39,015 36,789 42,389 35,626 36,224 36,587 -1,005 -7,626 -2,226 5,600 -6,763 598 363

Ireland 45,829 41,367 38,731 26,131 29,399 28,286 31,064 30,464 -4,462 -2,636 -12,600 3,268 -1,113 2,778 -600

South Korea 42,879 41,485 40,810 40,964 38,891 40,303 42,628 42,867 -1,394 -675 154 -2,073 1,412 2,325 239

Cayman 

Islands 34,967 29,540 31,827 27,154 34,564 34,495 34,264 37,128 -5,427 2,287 -4,673 7,410 -69 -231 2,864

Bermuda 29,365 29,184 33,897 27,790 27,790 35,751 27,989 28,596 -181 4,713 -6,107 0 7,961 -7,762 607

Netherlands 14,074 10,549 10,902 10,886 13,255 10,964 12,344 14,206 -3,525 353 -16 2,369 -2,291 1,380 1,862

Malaysia 12,167 15,585 16,600 21,399 20,390 19,808 19,147 18,546 3,418 1,015 4,799 -1,009 -582 -661 -601

Rest of 

world 128,142 135,515 152,489 202,143 201,165 196,246 197,139 209,425 7,373 16,974 49,654 -978 -4,919 893 12,286

Total

1,144,97

1

1,157,71

4

1,163,09

6

1,245,02

3 

1,225,07

4 

1,171,60

3 

1,183,60

2 

1,225,80

4 12,743 5,382 81,927 -19,949 -53,471 11,999 42,202

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020

Q3

2020

Q4 

2020Jan-21

Japan 293,662 307,738 302,212 319,241 306,963 301,622 304,865 324,989 14,076 -5,526 16,823 -12,278 -5,341 3,243 20,124

Taiwan 265,234 262,732 261,470 268,881 267,700 264,043 262,244 260,410 -2,502 -1,262 7,393 -1,181 -3,657 -1,799 -1,834

China 221,738 228,240 226,526 255,596 235,078 202,730 208,516 214,821 6,502 -1,714 28,726 -20,518 -32,348 5,785 6,305

Luxembourg 43,978 43,023 35,603 33,602 40,207 33,354 34,133 34,325 -955 -7,420 -2,226 6,605 -6,853 779 192

Ireland 37,674 33,322 31,145 19,045 21,091 19,635 23,102 21,852 -4,352 -2,177 -12,600 2,047 -1,457 3,468 -1,250

South Korea 34,969 33,682 33,452 34,091 28,743 29,736 32,903 32,347 -1,287 -230 154 -5,347 992 3,167 -555

Cayman 

Islands 29,896 24,538 27,110 22,748 28,431 29,364 28,386 30,770 -5,358 2,572 -4,673 5,684 933 -978 2,384

Bermuda 26,394 26,253 31,133 25,208 25,111 25,635 25,422 25,819 -141 4,880 -6,107 -97 523 -213 397

Netherlands 13,904 10,381 10,744 10,738 12,739 10,427 11,850 13,671 -3,523 363 -16 2,001 -2,312 1,423 1,822

Malaysia 11,881 15,303 16,334 21,150 20,028 19,432 18,801 18,171 3,422 1,031 4,799 -1,122 -597 -631 -629

Rest of world 97,585 105,371 124,063 175,591 173,716 167,661 170,833 180,970 7,786 18,692 49,654 -1,874 -6,055 3,171 10,137

Total

1,076,91

6 

1,090,57

9 

1,099,78

8 

1,185,88

7 

1,159,80

8 

1,103,63

6 

1,121,05

2 

1,158,14

5 13,663 9,209 81,927 -26,079 -56,172 17,416 37,093
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jul-10

Nov-10

Mar-11

Jul-11

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Nov-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Mar-21

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of March 2021.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of March 2021.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases Fed Absorption

On March 23, 2020, in response to the market dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed 

announced they would purchase Treasuries and agency MBS in an amount necessary to support smooth 

functioning markets. In March 2020 the Fed bought $292.2 billion in agency MBS, and April 2020 clocked in at 

$295.1 billion, the largest two months of mortgage purchases ever; and well over 100 percent of gross issuance 

for each of those two months. After the market stabilized, the Fed slowed its purchases to around $100 billion per 

month in May through August of 2020. More recently, Fed purchases have ramped up again slightly; purchases 

totaled $132.4 billion in March 2021. February Fed purchases totaled 39.0 percent of monthly issuance. As of 

March 2021, total agency MBS owned by the Fed equaled $2.22 trillion. Prior to the COVID-19 intervention, the 

Fed was winding down its MBS portfolio from its 2014 prior peak.
Disclosure:

For Ginnie Mae’s Internal Use only. All the information contained in this document is as of date 

indicated unless otherwise noted. The information provided does not constitute investment advice 

and it should not be relied on as such. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be 

reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The views expressed in this material are the views of 

Urban Institute and Street Global Advisors as of February 13th, 2021 and are subject to change based 

on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed 

forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future 

performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.

© 2021 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. 

Tracking Code: 3328649.1.1.AM.INST

Expiration Date: 1/31/2022
Disclosures: All the information contained in this document is as of date indicated unless otherwise 

noted. The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied 

on as such. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy 

is not guaranteed. The views expressed in this material are the views of the staff of the Urban 

Institute's Housing Finance Policy Center and State Street Global Advisors as of March 11th, 2021 

and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. The views should not be 

attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. This document contains certain 

statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements 

are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ 

materially from those projected.

Information Classification: General 

© 2021 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved. 

United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. 

Tracking Code: 3489631.6.1.GBL.RTL

Expiration Date: 5/31/2022