Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
CONTENTS

Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 4

Global 10-year treasury yields 5

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 6-8

MBS yield per duration 9

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 10 

State of the US housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 11

National HPI 11

HPI by state 12

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 13

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 14

Outstanding Agency MBS 15

Origination volume over time 16

US Agency Market, Originations

Annual Agency Gross Issuance 17

Annual Agency Net Issuance 18

Monthly Agency Issuance 19

Purchase versus refi: Percent Refi at Issuance 20

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 21

First time home buyer share— Ginnie Mae purchase only loans 22

FICO score distribution 23

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 24-26

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 27-29

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 30

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 31-32

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae breakdown (FICO, LTV, DTI) 33-35

Prepayments 

Aggregate 36

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 37-38

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 39

Multifamily 40

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 41

Dealer net positions, repo volume 42

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 43

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 44

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 45

Foreign ownership of MBS 46-47

Fed Ownership of MBS 48
HIGHLIGHTS

Agency origination activity in 2018

With half of 2018 in the rear-view mirror, we wanted to track latest trends in agency issuance volumes. 

Issuance volumes reflect origination activity, albeit with a 1 to 2-month delay. We looked at issuance 

volumes for the first half of 2018 (January to June 2018). These reflect mortgages that were originated 

roughly from November 2017 to April 2018. 

As was expected amidst rising interest rates, refi volumes fell across the board from first half 2017 to first 

half of 2018, plunging 22.0 percent for Ginnie Mae, 16.7 percent for Fannie Mae and 31.7 percent for 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae space, FHA refi volumes fell 27.9 percent, VA was down 15.8 percent 

and USDA volume fell by 53.0 percent. Refi volume for each agency is driven by the level of prepayments in 

the overall market, but also its relative market share in the refi submarket.

Agency purchase originations were up 1.7 percent in the first six months of 2018 over the same period last 

year. This is consistent with improvements in the broader economy – full employment and rising wages – as 

well as slight easing of credit availability, all of which facilitate greater home buying activity even as rates 

rise.

Agency Issuance Volumes 1H 2017 vs. 1H 2018 ($ billions)

Source: Urban Institute calculations based on eMBS data.

Freddie Mac and VA saw purchase volume increases while Fannie Mae, FHA and USDA experienced 

decreases. Fannie Mae’s volume fell slightly (-0.3%) from 1H 2017 to 1H 2018, Ginnie Mae was down 4.1 

percent, while Freddie Mac’s purchase volume increased by 15.9 percent. Within the Ginnie Mae space, 

FHA and USDA volumes fell measurably (10.5 and 12.6 percent respectively); VA purchase volume was up 

13.0 percent, touching almost $50 billion. This was VA’s highest ever first-half issuance volume. The decline 

in FHA volumes may be driven by decreased affordability in the lower end of the market or by greater 

competition from conventional mortgages with private mortgage insurance. 

Highlights this month:

• Ginnie Mae MBS hedged into Japanese yen outyields JGBs by a wider margin in July 2018 (page 7).

• Agency refinance shares declined sharply to the lowest level in 15 years in June 2018, as interest rates 

stayed high and purchase activity picked up (page 20).

• Total agency gross issuance in the first half of 2018 fell 8.7% year over year, as refinance volumes 

continued to decline due to higher rates (page 17).

• Ginnie Mae median FICO scores continued to decrease in June 2018, especially for refinance loans and 

FHA loans (pages 27 and 34).

Purchase volume Refinance volume Total volume

1H 2017 1H 2018 % change 1H 2017 1H 2018 % change 1H 2017 1H 2018 % change

Fannie Mae $132.8 $132.4 -0.3% $125.2 $104.3 -16.7% $258.0 $236.7 -8.3%

Freddie Mac $79.6 $92.3 15.9% $79.5 $54.3 -31.7% $159.1 $146.6 -7.9%

Ginnie Mae $148.9 $142.8 -4.1% $70.8 $55.2 -22.0% $219.7 $198.0 -9.9%

Agency Total $361.4 $367.5 1.7% $275.5 $213.8 -22.4% $636.8 $581.3 -8.7%

FHA $90.6 $81.1 -10.5% $37.5 $27.0 -27.9% $127.9 $108.1 -15.5%

VA $43.8 $49.5 13.0% $38.2 $32.1 -15.8% $82.1 $81.6 -0.6%

USDA $9.2 $8.1 -12.6% $0.5 $0.2 -53.0% $9.7 $8.3 -14.4%
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of June 2018.

US MBS comprise 28 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index- less than either the US Treasury share (38%) or the 

US Credit share (30%). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS comprises the largest percent of US MBS (10%), while Ginnie Mae 

30-year MBS and Freddie Mac 30-year MBS comprise 8 percent and 6 percent of the market, respectively. 

Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the remaining balance (4%) of the US MBS share. US securities are 

the largest single contributor to the Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 39 percent of the global total. US MBS 

comprises 11 percent of the global aggregate. 

38%

2%

30%

8%

10%

6%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

6%

25%

11%

1%

3%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2% 3%

1%

39%

32%

21%

1%

0.04% 2%

0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2018.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

4
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of July 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of July 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of July 2018.

US Treasury interest rates, as measured by the 10-year note, continue to be the highest in the developed world. The 

US 10-year Treasury note increased to 2.96 percent this month. Interest rates in the UK, Germany, Italy, and Japan 

all decreased in July to 1.33. 0.44, 2.72, and 0.06 percent, respectively. If Treasury notes are hedged into foreign 

currencies, 10-year US Treasury yields are 44 basis points (bps) in JPY, and 18 bps in EUR. The hedged yield 

difference between the 10-year Treasuries and JGBs widened to 37 bps, and the hedged yield difference between 

the 10-year Treasuries and Bunds widened to -27 bps.

Yield(%)Yield(%)

5
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of July 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of July 2018.

The nominal yield on both the current coupon GNMA II and GNMA I securities increased slightly in July 2018. 

Current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 

10-year Treasury yields) by 59 and 61 bps on G2SF and GNSF, respectively, a decrease from their June levels.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

6
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of July 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of July 2018.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus many 

sovereign alternatives. The figures show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into Japanese yen 

yield more than the JGB 5/10 blend by 98 and 101 bps, respectively. These latest spreads have widened 

compared to June levels.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

7
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of July 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of July 2018.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus sovereign 

alternatives. The figures show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into euros yield more than the 

average of the German 5/10 blend by 55 and 57 bps, respectively. These latest spreads represent a 10 basis 

point narrowing from June levels.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

8
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of July 2018.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most securities with the same or longer durations. The only 

security class with significantly more yield is the high yield indices, where duration, a measure of sensitivity to 

interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield asset class. Investors are unable to 

match the yield on Ginnie Mae securities, while preserving the full government guarantee, even if they extend 

their duration significantly.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.6 2.85

US 10y 8.4 2.96

GNMA II 3% 6.8 3.37

GNMA II 3.5% 5.9 3.49

JPY 5y 4.9 -0.10

JPY 10y 9.8 0.05

GER 5y 5.2 -0.13

GER 10y 9.9 0.44

ITA 5y 4.4 1.80

ITA 10y 8.4 2.72

US credit 7.0 3.92

US credit >= A 7.3 3.79

US HY 3.9 6.31

Pan-Euro Corp 5.7 1.29

Pan-Euro HY 3.7 3.58

US 5y US 10y

G2 3.0%

G2 3.5%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration

9
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.03 -0.10 -0.06 0.04 0.22 0.13

3 year 0.09 0.05 0.26 0.09 0.51 0.30

5 year 0.18 0.12 0.29 0.31 0.45 0.48

10 year 0.29 0.24 0.47 0.41 0.73 0.85

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.15 -0.22 -0.18 0.10 0.09 0.20

3 year 0.03 -0.01 0.20 0.14 0.45 0.36

5 year 0.14 0.08 0.25 0.35 0.41 0.51

10 year 0.27 0.22 0.44 0.41 0.70 0.85

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.56 0.79 0.83 0.38 0.59 0.84

3 year 0.53 0.91 1.04 0.94 1.57 1.40

5 year 0.61 0.90 1.07 0.97 1.44 1.22

10 year 0.76 1.18 1.75 1.38 2.98 3.48

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.27 -0.28 -0.22 0.27 0.16 0.23

3 year 0.05 -0.01 0.19 0.15 0.28 0.26

5 year 0.23 0.09 0.24 0.36 0.28 0.42

10 year 0.36 0.19 0.25 0.30 0.24 0.25

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of July 2018.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade has been slightly higher than the US Treasury 

index, but lower than many alternatives, including the US Investment-Grade Corporate and US and European 

High Yield indices. However, the standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has 

the least price volatility. The result: the excess return per unit of risk for the mortgage market is the highest of any 

market over the past decade, as measured by the Sharpe Ratio.

10
State of the US Housing Market

8.1%

6.2%

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

Nov-01

May-02

Nov-02

May-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

May-05

Nov-05

May-06

Nov-06

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

BlackKnight HPI year-over-year Zillow HVI year-over-year

Sources: Black Knight, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

1.16%

0.97%

4.22%

2.22%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

3Q051Q063Q061Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q18

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q1 2018.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquencies for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans, and VA loans declined in Q1 2018, after last 

quarter’s seasonal and hurricane-related uptick. The delinquency rates for FHA and VA went down to 4.22 

percent and 2.22 percent, respectively, and delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went down to 

1.16 and 0.97 percent, respectively. GSE delinquencies remain high relative to 2005-2007, while FHA and VA 

delinquencies (which are higher than their GSE counterparts) are at levels lower than 2005-2007. Home price 

changes turned positive in 2012, and continues to increase approximately 6-8 percent per year, as measured by 

both Black Knight and Zillow.

11
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of May 2018. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when HPI 

reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to the 

lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 05/2018, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have improved by 48.0 percent since the trough, and have exceeded their pre-crisis 

peak valuation on a nominal basis by 10.2 percent. However, the picture is very different for different states, with 

many states well in excess of the prior peak, while Nevada is 14.8 percent below peak levels and Connecticut is 15.2 

percent below peak levels.

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 76.3% -25.6% 48.0% 6.2% 10.2%

Alabama 44.0% -15.5% 22.2% 5.4% 3.2%

Alaska 69.6% -3.2% 20.2% 2.3% 16.4%

Arizona 110.3% -48.0% 68.4% 7.0% -12.4%

Arkansas 41.5% -10.1% 20.4% 4.1% 8.3%

California 156.4% -43.4% 87.6% 9.0% 6.2%

Colorado 40.0% -12.5% 72.8% 8.8% 51.1%

Connecticut 92.8% -24.5% 12.9% 1.7% -14.8%

Delaware 94.1% -23.5% 25.5% 6.3% -4.0%

District of Columbia 177.7% -13.1% 51.6% 2.7% 31.7%

Florida 129.9% -46.8% 64.0% 6.6% -12.8%

Georgia 38.4% -32.6% 58.2% 6.4% 6.7%

Hawaii 162.9% -21.9% 47.9% 5.3% 15.5%

Idaho 71.6% -28.3% 61.2% 10.9% 15.6%

Illinois 61.7% -34.4% 36.6% 3.4% -10.5%

Indiana 21.3% -7.3% 26.7% 4.7% 17.5%

Iowa 28.4% -4.7% 22.3% 3.5% 16.5%

Kansas 34.7% -9.4% 31.3% 2.0% 18.9%

Kentucky 29.7% -7.3% 29.2% 5.1% 19.8%

Louisiana 48.7% -5.4% 23.6% 3.6% 16.9%

Maine 82.6% -12.4% 28.9% 6.3% 12.9%

Maryland 129.2% -28.0% 24.1% 3.1% -10.7%

Massachusetts 93.1% -22.5% 47.5% 6.1% 14.3%

Michigan 24.5% -39.5% 68.7% 7.5% 2.1%

Minnesota 66.0% -27.2% 49.8% 7.1% 9.0%

Mississippi 41.1% -13.7% 17.2% -0.7% 1.1%

Missouri 42.7% -14.4% 25.0% 5.9% 7.0%

Montana 82.0% -10.2% 46.6% 9.2% 31.7%

Nebraska 26.8% -6.6% 34.4% 5.0% 25.5%

Nevada 127.2% -59.4% 109.1% 13.8% -15.2%

New Hampshire 90.7% -23.2% 33.0% 6.3% 2.1%

New Jersey 118.1% -27.6% 23.7% 4.2% -10.4%

New Mexico 66.8% -16.1% 18.6% 4.5% -0.6%

New York 99.4% -15.1% 36.8% 5.9% 16.1%

North Carolina 40.6% -15.3% 29.9% 6.3% 10.1%

North Dakota 53.9% -4.2% 55.3% 2.6% 48.8%

Ohio 21.1% -18.0% 29.6% 5.6% 6.2%

Oklahoma 37.6% -2.2% 18.0% 2.1% 15.4%

Oregon 82.6% -27.7% 72.2% 6.5% 24.4%

Pennsylvania 70.1% -11.4% 18.7% 2.7% 5.2%

Rhode Island 131.9% -34.0% 43.4% 8.0% -5.4%

South Carolina 44.8% -19.1% 29.2% 5.7% 4.5%

South Dakota 45.3% -4.2% 35.5% 2.9% 29.8%

Tennessee 35.2% -11.6% 36.5% 7.1% 20.6%

Texas 33.3% -5.7% 46.5% 4.8% 38.1%

Utah 55.2% -21.4% 60.9% 10.8% 26.4%

Vermont 83.5% -8.7% 23.4% 4.9% 12.7%

Virginia 99.8% -22.5% 23.8% 3.9% -4.1%

Washington 85.8% -28.4% 81.0% 12.0% 29.6%

West Virginia 43.1% -6.7% 18.7% 1.6% 10.7%

Wisconsin 45.1% -16.2% 29.0% 6.1% 8.1%

Wyoming 77.9% -6.5% 23.8% 3.8% 15.7%

12
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State Ginnie Mae Share Ginnie Mae Average

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan 

Size (Thousands)

Ginnie Mae 

Share

Ginnie Mae Average 

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan

Size (Thousands)

National 33.7% 213.8 229.8 32.2% 180.1 209.8

Alabama 45.3% 160.9 183.0 47.0% 143.0 169.7

Alaska 52.1% 283.0 245.9 52.0% 257.6 229.4

Arizona 34.1% 208.8 214.1 34.3% 178.3 193.0

Arkansas 44.2% 141.7 167.3 46.6% 123.6 154.0

California 27.8% 344.7 328.2 22.2% 288.5 294.7

Colorado 32.8% 281.1 271.5 30.1% 232.9 239.9

Connecticut 32.7% 214.8 227.1 30.0% 204.0 218.5

Delaware 39.2% 213.1 223.9 37.5% 199.2 209.0

District of Columbia 18.0% 413.6 357.3 17.4% 331.1 334.5

Florida 39.3% 209.4 205.7 36.8% 176.2 186.5

Georgia 41.2% 183.9 207.2 40.8% 156.5 187.8

Hawaii 39.7% 495.0 386.8 31.9% 422.8 348.4

Idaho 34.2% 195.6 199.9 34.8% 165.0 177.8

Illinois 26.8% 177.5 198.6 25.3% 156.5 184.0

Indiana 39.6% 141.3 156.6 39.5% 122.8 142.6

Iowa 26.5% 144.6 162.8 26.9% 126.2 149.9

Kansas 37.0% 155.1 175.9 37.0% 133.9 158.1

Kentucky 40.4% 149.7 166.5 40.1% 134.0 151.3

Louisiana 42.8% 169.8 194.0 43.5% 151.9 178.7

Maine 36.2% 183.4 198.5 33.2% 167.7 181.8

Maryland 44.5% 283.2 264.3 40.1% 254.3 248.2

Massachusetts 24.1% 290.0 281.6 19.8% 255.4 256.5

Michigan 26.0% 145.3 168.3 26.5% 124.5 152.6

Minnesota 25.5% 196.2 209.1 25.5% 171.4 191.6

Mississippi 50.8% 151.7 170.9 52.3% 133.2 159.1

Missouri 36.2% 150.7 172.4 36.4% 133.6 157.3

Montana 31.8% 214.1 216.3 31.5% 184.7 193.7

Nebraska 31.9% 161.5 170.5 35.2% 136.5 155.0

Nevada 37.6% 240.4 228.8 39.6% 200.1 201.6

New Hampshire 32.4% 231.7 224.3 30.2% 210.0 203.6

New Jersey 30.1% 249.4 264.5 28.2% 233.4 249.7

New Mexico 43.5% 178.2 187.4 44.1% 157.6 173.7

New York 27.0% 242.1 267.4 26.4% 207.0 244.2

North Carolina 35.0% 180.1 201.4 35.9% 156.3 185.8

North Dakota 28.2% 210.1 206.9 26.8% 182.2 187.4

Ohio 36.5% 141.7 156.7 37.6% 125.8 144.9

Oklahoma 46.9% 151.6 170.8 50.0% 132.5 158.0

Oregon 27.9% 252.9 256.2 25.4% 212.9 223.9

Pennsylvania 33.8% 167.3 193.1 33.8% 152.6 181.4

Rhode Island 38.2% 225.5 219.6 34.4% 202.5 204.0

South Carolina 40.2% 182.9 192.7 39.2% 159.9 178.6

South Dakota 37.2% 176.2 184.2 37.0% 156.3 166.8

Tennessee 41.0% 181.3 200.1 42.6% 152.1 180.0

Texas 35.5% 195.9 213.7 38.2% 155.8 193.1

Utah 30.2% 236.6 246.7 31.2% 204.1 221.3

Vermont 23.2% 193.3 197.3 20.1% 182.0 183.2

Virginia 45.5% 270.3 259.5 42.0% 244.6 244.9

Washington 31.1% 282.1 284.1 30.0% 235.7 246.8

West Virginia 48.9% 155.0 154.6 46.2% 139.6 147.1

Wisconsin 23.4% 165.1 175.3 21.6% 147.7 161.8

Wyoming 41.7% 211.6 210.6 41.5% 194.6 196.3

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae share are based on loan balance as of June 2018.

Ginnie Mae loans constitute 32.2 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance, 33.7 percent of the 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstandings (as measured by loan balance) as low as 17.4 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 52.3 

percent in Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

13
State of the US Housing Market

$10.6

$15.7

$26.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q1

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt, household mortgages Household equity Total Value

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Data as of Q1 2018.

$0.5

$0.6

$6.4

$3.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q1

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Second Liens Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Inside Mortgage Finance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, and credit unions. Data as of Q1 2018.

The Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report has consistently indicated an increasing total value of the housing 

market driven by growing household equity since 2012, and 2018 Q1 was no different. While total debt and 

mortgages was stable at $10.6 trillion, household equity reached a new high of $15.7 trillion, bringing the total 

value of the housing market to $26.4 trillion, 10 percent higher on a nominal crisis than the pre-crisis peak in 

2006. Agency MBS make up 59.3 percent of the total mortgage market, private-label securities make up 4.9 

percent, and unsecuritized first liens at the GSEs, commercial banks, savings institutions, and credit unions make 

up 30.1 percent. Second liens comprise the remaining 5.7 percent of the total.

14
State of the US Housing Market

As of June 2018, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $6.49 trillion and were 43.5 percent Fannie 

Mae, 27.4 percent Freddie Mac, and 29.1 percent Ginnie Mae. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than Freddie 

Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, VA has been growing very rapidly, and now comprises 33.6 percent of total 

Ginnie Mae outstandings.

$2.82

$1.78

$1.89

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

$1.1

$0.6

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of June 2018.

15
State of the US Housing Market

$0.18

$0.08

$0.01

$0.11

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q1

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2018.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q1

First Lien Origination Share

First lien originations totaled $380 billion in Q1 2018, down 16 percent from the first quarter of 2017, mostly due 

to high interest rates. The portfolio originations share was 28 percent, the GSE share was around 46 percent, and 

the FHA/VA share was around 23 percent, all consistent with 2017 shares. Origination of private-label securities 

was under just over 1 percent, slightly higher than the 2017 share.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2018. 

29.7%

1.1%

22.9%

46.3%

16
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total Agency

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 YTD $108.1 $81.6 $8.3 $198.0

2018 % Change YOY -15.6% -0.4% -14.7% -9.9%

2018 Ann. $216.2 $163.2 $16.6 $396.0

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 YTD $236.7 $146.6 $383.3 $198.0 $581.3

2018 % Change YOY -8.3% -7.9% -8.1% -9.9% -8.7%

2018 Ann. $473.4 $293.3 $766.7 $396.0 $1,162.7

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of June 2018.

Agency gross issuance totaled $581.3 billion in the first half of 2018, down by 8.7 percent compared to the same 

time period in 2017. Ginnie Mae gross issuance was down by 9.9 percent and GSE gross issuance was down by 8.1 

percent. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA is down by 15.6 percent and VA origination is down by 0.4 percent. 

The decline in origination volume is the result of higher interest rates.

17
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 YTD $20.1 $29.1 $1.9 $51.2

2018 %Change YOY -30.7% -20.1% -8.6% -24.3%

2018 Ann. $40.3 $58.3 $3.8 $102.4

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $57.5 $11.6 $69.1 $87.9 $157.0

2014 $0.5 $30.0 $30.5 $61.6 $92.1

2015 $10.2 $65.0 $75.1 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $68.6 $66.8 $135.5 $125.3 $260.8

2017 $90.2 $78.2 $168.5 $131.3 $299.7

2018 YTD $33.7 $25.7 $59.5 $51.2 $110.7

2018 %Change YOY -24.2% -14.1% -20.1% -24.2% -22.1%

2018Ann. $67.5 $51.5 $119.0 $102.4 $221.4

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom) 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of June 2018.

Agency net issuance totaled $110.7 billion in the first half of 2018, down 22.1 percent compared to 2017. Ginnie Mae 

net issuance was $51.2 billion, comprising 46.3 percent of total agency net issuance. Note that Ginnie Mae net 

issuance in the first half of 2018 is down 24.2 percent year over year. Ginnie Mae net issuance YTD in 2018 is 

comprised of 56.9 percent VA issuance, 39.4 percent FHA issuance and 3.7 percent other issuance.

18
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of June 2018.

Agency gross issuance totaled $102.6 billion in June 2018, up slightly from $100.1 billion of issuance in May 

2018, a seasonal effect. June 2018 levels are below June 2017 issuance of $110.7 billion.

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Jan-15 $36.8 $22.9 $27.5 -$1.2 $0.8 $2.5

Feb-15 $35.4 $29.9 $23.9 $1.5 $10.1 $2.9

Mar-15 $44.8 $26.0 $30.7 $3.1 $1.1 $0.6

Apr-15 $49.3 $33.8 $40.6 -$1.2 $3.8 $4.3

May-15 $42.4 $33.2 $39.4 -$2.9 $6.6 $5.8

Jun-15 $44.6 $34.4 $40.5 $0.8 $8.3 $9.1

Jul-15 $46.0 $39.2 $45.6 $1.0 $12.3 $13.3

Aug-15 $39.4 $27.6 $43.4 -$2.2 $3.1 $14.9

Sep-15 $45.3 $30.4 $39.4 $7.6 $7.9 $12.7

Oct-15 $41.5 $28.4 $39.2 $4.8 $6.4 $12.4

Nov-15 $28.8 $23.3 $35.8 -$8.1 $1.3 $10.6

Dec-15 $39.7 $22.8 $30.3 $7.1 $3.2 $8.2

Jan-16 $35.6 $22.5 $32.5 -$0.6 $1.0 $7.3

Feb-16 $32.4 $21.2 $30.5 $2.4 $3.1 $8.4

Mar-16 $39.7 $27.5 $32.9 $7.9 $8.2 $9.6

Apr-16 $43.8 $26.2 $40.1 $0.8 -$0.2 $8.8

May-16 $44.2 $29.9 $41.6 $2.4 $4.4 $11.4

Jun-16 $46.7 $30.1 $43.9 $2.7 $3.0 $11.9

Jul-16 $49.8 $35.3 $46.1 $2.3 $6.3 $10.8

Aug-16 $54.9 $37.9 $46.7 $10.4 $11.0 $13.8

Sep-16 $65.8 $44.0 $52.5 $8.7 $9.0 $12.5

Oct-16 $66.0 $35.9 $47.4 $11.8 $2.7 $9.3

Nov-16 $48.8 $40.2 $47.2 -$3.5 $7.9 $10.3

Dec-16 $72.7 $40.5 $46.8 $23.3 $10.4 $10.8

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $10.3 $10.7 $10.3

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $3.1 $6.5 $9.2

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $10.3 $6.2 $9.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $4.8 $0.4 $11.7

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $7.6 $2.7 $13.1

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $8.3 $2.4 $13.2

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $5.8 $3.5 $12.1

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $12.0 $6.7 $15.6

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $7.4 $3.8 $10.5

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $6.4 $12.5 $10.7

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $4.6 $13.6 $8.2

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $9.6 $8.2 $6.8

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $12.4 $0.3 $7.8

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $8.0 $2.3 $7.1

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $4.9 $3.0 $6.1

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $1.71 $6.1 $9.1

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $4.5 $7.2 $10.6

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $2.2 $6.8 $10.5

Monthly Agency Issuance

19
US Agency Market, Originations

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Mortgage Rate

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance

Freddie Mac (left) Fannie Mae (left) Ginnie Mae (left) Mortgage rate (right)

18.9%

28.7%

1.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of June 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. Data as of June 2018.

The Ginnie Mae refi share stood at 20 percent in June 2018, below the 33 and 28 percent shares for Fannie Mae 

and Freddie Mac, respectively. Within Ginnie Mae, VA had the highest refi share at 28.7 percent in June 2018, 

followed by FHA’s 18.9 percent refi share. In June, the refinance share continued to sharply decline for all 

agencies, reaching the lowest levels in recent years. This is a result of increasing interest rates and the spring uptick 

in purchase activity.

20
Credit Box

42.2%

45.5%

71.9%

54.6%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

The first time homebuyer share was near its historical high in June 2018, comprising 71.9 percent of all 

purchase activity. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of the Ginnie Mae purchase 

market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 45.5 percent and 42.2 

percent of Fannie and Freddie purchase originations, respectively. The bottom table shows that based on 

mortgages originated in June 2018, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat 

buyer to take out a smaller loan and have a lower credit score, a much higher LTV and a similar DTI, thus 

requiring a higher interest rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 233,997 262,447 236,984 268,270 204,781 256,170 220,042 262,642 

Credit Score 737.6 754.5 742.0 756.9 678.8 701.3 709.2 740.3

LTV (%) 88.6 79.7 87.4 79.3 97.0 95.5 92.5 84.0

DTI (%) 36.8 37.2 35.2 36.2 41.7 42.6 38.9 38.3

Loan Rate (%) 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.6

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of June 2018.

21
Credit Box

78.7%

54.4%

82.2%

71.9%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Purchase Only Loans Breakdown by Source

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the 

Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 78.7 percent of FHA loans, 54.4 percent of VA loans and 82.2 percent of 

other loans represent financing for first time home buyers. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages 

originated in June 2018, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take 

out a smaller loan and have a lower credit score, and similar LTVs and DTIs, thus requiring a higher interest rate.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 200,166 222,504 248,343 301,119 141,043 154,383 204,781 256,170 

Credit Score 669.5 674.1 699.5 728.3 693.8 695.6 678.8 701.3

LTV (%) 95.6 94.1 99.9 96.4 99.4 100.0 97.0 95.5

DTI (%) 43.0 43.8 40.8 42.2 35.2 36.0 41.7 42.6

Loan Rate (%) 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.6

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

22
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2016.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 502 524 583 676 772 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

308 569 613 680 751 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (676) is lower than the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (680).

23
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 309,025 643 680 731 775 797 725 

Fannie 107,698 683 716 755 785 801 748 

Freddie 84,210 690 722 759 787 802 752 

Ginnie 117,117 623 645 676 722 769 685 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 119,304 640 677 722 767 794 719 

Fannie 54,239 656 691 733 773 797 730 

Freddie 35,676 669 703 743 778 799 738 

Ginnie 29,389 608 638 672 714 759 677 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 428,329 642 679 728 773 797 723 

Fannie 161,937 672 707 748 782 800 742 

Freddie 119,886 683 716 755 785 801 747 

Ginnie 146,506 621 643 676 720 767 683 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 117,117 623 645 676 722 769 685 

FHA 71,841 618 638 664 699 736 670 

VA 34,629 633 663 712 766 795 713 

Other 10,647 639 657 690 730 764 694 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 29,389 608 638 672 714 759 677 

FHA 15,980 599 628 659 693 731 662 

VA 13,329 623 653 692 737 776 695 

Other 80 604 636 678 723 770 681 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 146,506 621 643 676 720 767 683 

FHA 87,821 614 637 664 698 735 669 

VA 47,958 630 660 705 759 791 708 

Other 10,727 638 657 689 730 764 694 

June 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of June 2018.

In June 2018, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 676 versus 748 for Fannie and 755 for Freddie. Note that the 

FICO score for the 10th percentile was 621 for Ginnie Mae, versus 672 for Fannie and 683 for Freddie. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 664, VA loans have a median FICO score of 705 and 

other loans have a median FICO score of 689.

24
June 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 309,452 73.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 88.0 

Fannie 107,797 65.0 80.0 85.0 95.0 97.0 83.3 

Freddie 84,310 62.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 97.0 82.1 

Ginnie 117,345 93.3 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.6 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 119,873 43.0 59.0 74.0 80.0 90.0 69.7 

Fannie 54,245 39.0 54.0 69.0 77.0 80.0 64.3 

Freddie 35,681 40.0 55.0 70.0 79.0 80.0 65.2 

Ginnie 29,947 66.3 80.0 86.5 95.0 100.0 84.7 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 429,325 58.0 75.0 88.0 96.5 99.2 82.9 

Fannie 162,042 51.0 69.0 80.0 93.0 97.0 76.9 

Freddie 119,991 52.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 95.0 77.1 

Ginnie 147,292 84.2 94.8 96.5 100.0 101.0 94.2 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 117,345 93.3 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.6 

FHA 71,976 93.8 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.3 

VA 34,674 91.1 100.0 100.0 102.2 103.3 98.3 

Other 10,695 95.7 99.3 101.0 101.0 102.0 99.5 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 29,947 66.3 80.0 86.5 95.0 100.0 84.7 

FHA 16,102 65.4 78.3 86.3 86.5 93.5 81.5 

VA 13,726 67.6 82.1 92.4 100.0 101.5 88.5 

Other 119 75.1 77.0 86.3 96.0 101.4 85.6 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 147,292 84.2 94.8 96.5 100.0 101.0 94.2 

FHA 88,078 84.5 94.2 96.5 96.5 96.5 92.8 

VA 48,400 81.2 94.5 100.0 102.1 103.3 95.5 

Other 10,814 95.3 99.2 101.0 101.0 102.0 99.4 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of June 2018.

In June 2018, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 80 percent for both Fannie 

Mae and Freddie Mac. The 10th percentile was 84.2 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 51-52 percent for Fannie Mae and 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 100.0 for VA and 101.0 for other 

programs. 

25
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 309,044 25.0 32.0 39.7 46.0 50.0 38.4 

Fannie 107,796 23.0 30.0 38.0 45.0 48.0 36.8 

Freddie 84,309 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.6 

Ginnie 116,939 29.0 35.6 42.6 49.2 54.1 41.9 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 115,567 23.0 31.0 39.0 45.6 49.0 37.7 

Fannie 53,587 23.0 30.0 39.0 45.0 49.0 37.1 

Freddie 35,294 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.7 

Ginnie 26,686 27.2 34.6 42.6 49.0 54.0 41.4 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 424,611 24.0 31.6 39.4 45.9 49.9 38.2 

Fannie 161,383 23.0 30.0 38.0 45.0 48.0 36.9 

Freddie 119,603 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.7 

Ginnie 143,625 28.7 35.4 42.6 49.2 54.1 41.8 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 116,939 29.0 35.6 42.6 49.2 54.1 41.9 

FHA 71,987 30.5 37.3 44.2 50.1 54.5 43.2 

VA 34,411 27.6 34.5 42.0 48.9 54.2 41.4 

Other 10,541 26.3 31.1 36.3 40.3 43.1 35.3 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 26,686 27.2 34.6 42.6 49.0 54.0 41.4 

FHA 14,710 28.3 35.8 43.7 49.5 54.2 42.1 

VA 11,905 26.0 33.4 41.2 48.2 53.5 40.5 

Other 71 15.1 25.5 33.5 39.7 40.8 31.8 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 143,625 28.7 35.4 42.6 49.2 54.1 41.8 

FHA 86,697 30.1 37.0 44.1 50.0 54.4 43.0 

VA 46,316 27.2 34.2 41.8 48.7 54.1 41.2 

Other 10,612 26.3 31.1 36.3 40.3 43.1 35.3 

June 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of June 2018.

In June 2018, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 42.6 percent, considerably higher than the 37-

38 percent median DTIs for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 54.1 percent, also 

much higher than the 47.0-48 .0 percent DTIs for the GSEs. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI 

ratio was 44.1 percent, versus 41.8 percent for VA and 36.3 percent for other lending programs. 

26
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

748

755

676

728

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

The median FICO score for all agency MBS originated in June now stands at 728, slightly higher than last 

month. The figures clearly show that the median FICO score for Ginnie Mae borrowers has always been 

considerably lower than for GSE borrowers. The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrowers is wider 

in purchase loans than in refi loans.

27
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

LTV Ratio for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 80 percent 

LTVs for the GSEs. Through time, both Ginnie Mae and GSE refinances have LTVs about 6-12 points lower 

than their purchase counterparts. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of June 2018.

88

80

28
Credit Box: Historical

37.0

38.0

42.6

39.4

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

DTI Ratio for Refinance Loans 

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Debt-to-income Ratio

DTI Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of June 2018.

Median debt-to-income ratios on Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher 

than that of the GSEs. DTIs have been inching up over the past year for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with the 

movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae loans. Increases in DTIs are very typical in the current environment 

of rising interest rates and home prices, as borrowers are left with sharply higher monthly payments. 

29
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of June 2018.

The nonbank origination share has been generally increasing since 2013. In June 2018, the Ginnie Mae 

nonbank originator share stood at 79 percent. Nonbank originator shares for Freddie Mac stood at 58 

percent, and the nonbank originator share for Fannie Mae stayed flat at 55 percent. For Ginnie Mae, the nonbank refi share was higher than the non-bank purchase share. The differences were more modest for the 

GSEs.

64%

58%

55%

79%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

30
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of June 2018.

In June 2018, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share remained flat at 79 percent. Nonbank originator shares for FHA 

loans also remained flat at 84 percent, while the nonbank originator share for other loans increased slightly to 

80 percent. The VA nonbank originator share decreased to 71 percent. 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

84%

80%

79%

71%

31
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of June 2018. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of June 2018. 

729

746

717

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018. 

670

690

710

730

750

770

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

670

690

710

730

750

770

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. The median GSE and the median Ginnie Mae 

FICO scores for loans originated by nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, both bank 

and nonbank FICOs have declined since 2014 with a further relaxation in FICOs since early 2017. In contrast, within 

the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations have increased since 2014 while nonbank FICOs have 

declined. This largely reflects the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks. The FICO scores for both Ginnie Mae 

bank and nonbank originators have been declining in 2018.

32
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTV ratios for loans originated by nonbanks are similar to that of their bank counterparts, while the median 

DTIs for nonbank loans are higher, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in this as well as in the FICO 

dimension. Note that since early 2017, there has been a measurable increase in DTIs. This is true for both bank and 

non-bank originations. Rising DTIs are to be expected in a rising rate environment.

33
670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of June 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of June 2018

The FICO scores for Ginnie Mae nonbank originators decreased in June 2018, while FICO scores for bank 

originators increased. The spread in the FICO scores between banks and non-banks remains close to their 

widest level since the data became available in 2013. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent in 

all programs backing Ginnie Mae securities: FHA, VA, and Other.

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

660

665

670

675

680

685

690

695

700

705

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of June 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of June 2018

34
90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae VA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median LTV VA Bank Median LTV

VA Nonbank Median LTV

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of June 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of June 2018.

An analysis of the loans backing Ginnie Mae origination indicates that there are virtually no differences in 

median LTV ratios between bank originated loans and non-bank originated loans. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae LTV: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Ginnie Mae FHA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median LTV FHA Bank Median LTV

FHA Nonbank Median LTV

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Ginnie Mae Other LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median LTV Other Bank Median LTV

Other Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of June 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of June 2018

35
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of June 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of June 2018

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA loans experienced notable increases since early 2017 for both 

bank and nonbank originations, while the Other originations’ DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are to be 

expected in a rising rate environment.

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of June 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of June 2018

36
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13 Jan-14 Oct-14 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jan-17 Oct-17 Jul-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie II CPR Ginnie I CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2018.

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae securities were lower than on GSE securities from 2011 through mid-2013, but 

have been higher since. These differences hold across all coupon buckets. The differences are especially 

pronounced on more recent production. These increased Ginnie speeds reflect the growing share of VA loans, 

which prepay at faster speeds than either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA streamlined refinances have 

applied to a wide range of borrowers, and unlike GSE streamlined refinances, requires no credit report and no 

appraisal. Some of the upfront mortgage insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. 

Moreover, both FHA and VA permit refinancing of existing mortgages after 6 months, while the GSEs do not 

allow refinancing for a year. 

With the increase in interest rates since November 2016, the prepayment speeds for all agencies have 

slowed down considerably. Over the past year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economic to 

refinance, the small month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day count and changes in 

mortgage rates. With mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we would expect prepayments in the coming 

months to remain at low levels.

14%

12%

10%

16%

12%

11%

37
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2013 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2012 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2018.

The 2013 Ginnie II 3.0s are prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts. 2012 Ginnie II 3.5s have been 

faster since mid-2013. The differences accelerated in 2015—potentially due to the FHA mortgage insurance 

premium (MIP) cut. In January 2015, FHA lowered its MIPs from 135 basis points per annum to 85 basis points 

per annum; this gives 2012 and 2013 FHA mortgages taken out with MIPs of 125-135 bps a 40-50 basis point 

rate incentive that conventional mortgages do not have. GSE guarantee fees have gone up over that same period, 

creating a disincentive for conventional loans. Moreover, recent originations are more heavily VA loans, which 

are more prepayment responsive than either FHA or Conventional loans. 

After a sharp mortgage rate rise in November 2016, the prepayment speeds of Ginnie and Conventional 

loans both fell dramatically. Over the past year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economic 

to refinance, the muted month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day count and 

changes in mortgage interest rates. With mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we would expect prepayments 

in the coming months to stay at low levels.

14%

11%

10%

14%

10%

9%

38
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2018.

The 2011 Ginnie II 4.0s and 4.5s have been prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts since late 

2013. Faster VA mortgage prepays plus simplifications to the FHA streamlined programs in 2013 are likely 

contributors to the faster speeds. However, as mortgage rates rose sharply since November 2016, the speeds 

for all agencies have slowed down considerably. Over the past year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe 

finding it non-economic to refinance, the muted month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, 

changes in day count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we 

would expect prepayments in the coming months to stay muted. Note that recent month speeds on both the 

Ginnie Mae II 4 and 4.5% coupons are well below same month 2017 speeds.

15%

12%

16%

14%

39
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$56.3

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile in recent months. The June 2018 volume is closer to 

recent historical levels. The choppiness the past few months was largely due to the implementation of the new, 

lower principal limit factors that went into effect in March 2018. In June 2018, reverse mortgage issuance stood 

at $0.96 billion, and outstanding securities totaled $56.3 billion.

$0.96

40
Multifamily Market

$1.5

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$113.3

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volumes in June totaled $1.5 billion. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled 

$113.3 billion in June.

41
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

$227 

$556

$35 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.56%

3.76%

0.38% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume was $227 billion/day in June 2018; slightly more robust than in the 2014-2017 

period. Agency MBS turnover has also been higher in 2018 than in the 2014-2017 period; in the first five 

months of 2018, average daily MBS turnover was 3.56 percent versus 3.38 percent in 2017. Both average daily 

mortgage and Treasury turnover are down from their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative 

to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

42
Market Conditions

$204.0

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$39.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2018.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2018.

Dealer net positions in agency MBS are down from the 2012-2013 time period, but remain within historic 

range. Gross positions are likely to have fallen. The volume of repurchase activity is near its lowest level in 13 

years. This reflects banks cutting back on lower margin businesses. 

43
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual 

Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2018.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (20 

percent), commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (12 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares 

are a fraction of what they once were. 

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

44
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2018.

72.0%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2018.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, fewer agency notes and bonds are required to 

fund that activity, hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. For Q1 2018, the MBS share of total agency 

debt stood at 72.0 percent. Commercial banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $1.8 trillion 

in holdings as of the end of July 2018, $1.3 trillion of it was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Jun-18 Dec-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 July 4 July 11 July 18 July 25

Largest Domestic 

Banks 1,264.2 1,302.9 1,294.6 1,281.7 1,285.2 1,286.7 1,297.1 1,312.6 1,319.2 1,322.8 1,319.1 1,318.6

Small Domestic 

Banks 468.8 478.6 479.1 478.5 477.1 479.4 478.7 481.7 482.8 483.0 483.3 483.1

Foreign Related 

Banks 11.7 35.2 33.2 32.1 33.7 33.8 30.8 32.6 30.0 29.5 29.0 27.0

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1,744.7 1,816.7 1,806.9 1,792.3 1,796.0 1,799.9 1,806.6 1,826.9 1,832.0 1,835.3 1,831.4 1,828.7

45
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $308,503 $179,430 $115,594 $13,187 $292 17.00%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $238,554 $181,671 $48,097 $4,517 $4,269 13.20%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $97,801 $59,735 $27,066 $397 $10,603 5.40%

4 U S. Bancorp. $76,594 $35,012 $12,490 $29,091 $1 4.20%

5 Charles Schwab Bank $73,074 $43,574 $11,650 $17,850 $0 4.00%

6 Citigroup Inc. $58,153 $43,410 $1,522 $9,051 $4,170 3.20%

7 Capital One Financial Corporation $54,663 $17,339 $13,837 $22,337 $1,149 3.00%

8 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $50,822 $30,439 $1,872 $16,767 $1,744 2.80%

9 PNC Bank, National Association $43,169 $33,176 $4,508 $2,683 $2,801 2.40%

10 Branch Banking and Trust Company $39,124 $13,200 $6,517 $18,829 $578 2.20%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $29,674 $10,079 $5,902 $9,478 $4,215 1.60%

12 E*TRADE Bank $24,153 $13,087 $4,723 $6,343 $0 1.30%

13 KeyBank National Association $24,067 $827 $1,052 $22,187 $0 1.30%

14 Morgan Stanley $23,004 $9,133 $7,235 $6,636 $0 1.30%

15 SunTrust Bank $22,490 $11,513 $10,920 $0 $56 1.20%

16 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $21,641 $5,590 $7,464 $8,584 $3 1.20%

17 Regions Bank $18,111 $10,922 $4,747 $2,439 $3 1.00%

18 MUFG Union Bank, National Association $17,628 $5,845 $4,826 $6,264 $693 1.00%

19 Ally Bank $17,147 $9,798 $2,877 $2,251 $2,221 0.90%

20 The Northern Trust Company $16,506 $9,054 $1 $7,419 $32 0.90%

Total Top 20 $1,254,875 $722,832 $292,901 $206,312 $32,831 69.10%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2018.

Out of the $1.8 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts, $1.4 trillion is in agency pass-through form: $1.0 

trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $360.7 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. There are another $412.4 billion in 

Agency CMOs. Non-agency holdings total $45.3 billion. Ginnie Mae pass-throughs have been the fastest growing 

sector in the past 2 years. MBS holdings at banks and thrifts declined slightly in Q1 2018, although over the past 2 

years, the growth has been quite strong, with Ginnie pass-throughs the fastest growing sector.

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

1Q16 $1,660.58 $1,133.29 $833.25 $300.04 $448.63 $10.27 $68.39 

2Q 16 $1,684.33 $1,169.67 $867.64 $302.03 $440.25 $9.11 $65.29 

3Q16 $1,732.36 $1,227.52 $924.81 $302.71 $435.77 $7.90 $61.17 

4Q16 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01 

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

46
MBS Ownership

$937.7

$408.3

$529.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official Foreign Private

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of Q1 2018.

14.4%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

Foreign investors held 14.4 percent of agency MBS in Q1 2018, up from the lows in 2013. For the month of 

March 2018, this represents $937.7 billion in Agency MBS; $408.3 billion held by foreign official institutions 

and $529.4 billion held by foreign private investors. 

47
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2017 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2017. Monthly data as of April 2018.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Taiwan, Japan and China; these three comprise around 70 percent 

of all foreign holdings. Since June of 2017 we estimate Japan and Taiwan have expanded their holdings, while 

China has contracted their holdings. We estimate Japan has added around $19 billion in agency MBS between June 

2017 and March 2018, and Taiwan has added around $31 billion in agency MBS.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Apr-18 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Apr-18

Taiwan 227,195 229,030 234,234 245,182 246,833 1,835 5,204 10,948 1,651

Japan 228,466 244,261 241,067 246,344 259,270 15,795 -3,194 5,277 12,926

China 183,393 177,580 170,702 173,169 171,410 -5,813 -6,878 2,467 -1,759

South Korea 46,791 47,581 45,467 44,099 42,534 790 -2,114 -1,368 -1,565

Ireland 44,229 46,648 51,525 49,164 50,072 2,419 4,877 -2,361 908

Luxembourg 31,289 33,026 37,575 39,336 41,085 1,737 4,549 1,761 1,749

Cayman Islands 32,682 29,016 28,374 29,026 28,154 -3,666 -642 652 -872

Bermuda 26,767 27,125 28,904 28,055 27,918 358 1,779 -849 -137

Switzerland 17,312 18,675 16,794 13,063 12,361 1,363 -1,881 -3,731 -702

Malaysia 12,365 13,162 12,751 12,139 12,552 797 -411 -612 413

Rest of World 129,723 124,357 125,465 124,266 125,395 -5,366 1,108 -1,199 1,129

Total 980,212 990,461 992,858 1,003,843 1017584 10,249 2,397 10,985 13,741

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Apr-18 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Apr-18

Taiwan 227,073 228,914 234,127 245,049 246,724 1,841 5,213 10,942 1,656

Japan 221,528 237,689 234,985 238,777 253,081 16,161 -2,704 4,914 13,183

China 177,546 172,042 165,576 166,792 166,194 -5,504 -6,465 2,161 -1,543

South Korea 33,891 35,362 34,158 30,030 31,026 1,471 -1,204 -2,044 -1,088

Ireland 33,663 36,640 42,262 37,641 40,647 2,977 5,623 -2,914 1,299

Luxembourg 28,314 30,208 34,967 36,091 38,431 1,894 4,759 1,605 1,859

Cayman Islands 24,897 21,642 21,549 20,536 21,209 -3,255 -93 244 -584

Bermuda 23,156 23,705 25,738 24,117 24,697 549 2,034 -1,038 -3

Switzerland 13,867 15,412 13,774 9,306 9,288 1,545 -1,638 -3,911 -575

Malaysia 11,905 12,726 12,348 11,637 12,142 821 -379 -636 430

Rest of World 94,872 91,345 94,913 86,258 94,306 -3,527 3,567 -3,024 2,418

Total 890,712 905,684 914,397 906,235 937,745 14,972 8,713 6,297 17,051

48
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of June 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of June 2018.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

The Fed has begun to wind down their portfolio, and we are beginning to see the effects in slower absorption 

rates. During the period October 2014-September 2017, the Fed had ended its purchase program, but was 

reinvesting funds from mortgages and agency debt into the mortgage market, absorbing 20-30 percent of agency 

gross issuance. With the wind down started in October 2017, the Fed will continue to reinvest, but by less than 

their run off. In June 2018, total Fed purchases decreased to $9.1 billion, yielding Fed absorption of gross 

issuance of 10.4 percent, near the lowest level since the Fed began its second mortgage purchase program. The 

Fed absorbed 8.1 percent of Ginnie Mae issuance and 11.7 percent of GSE issuance, respectively.

49
All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise noted. The

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

The views expressed in this material are the views of Urban Institute and State Street Global Advisors as

of August 16, 2018 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document

contains certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such

statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ

materially from those projected.   

© 2018 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

 2213027.1.1.GBL.INST 

Expiration Date: 8/31/2019

[Internal Tracking Code and Expiration Date to be removed upon providing this document to Ginnie

Mae]