Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
CONTENTS

Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 4

Global 10-year treasury yields 5

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 6-8

MBS yield per duration 9

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 10 

State of the US housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 11

National HPI 11

HPI by state 12

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 13

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 14

Outstanding Agency MBS 15

Origination volume over time 16

US Agency Market, Originations

Annual Agency Gross Issuance 17

Annual Agency Net Issuance 18

Monthly Agency Issuance 19

Purchase versus refi: Percent Refi at Issuance 20

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 21

First time home buyer share— Ginnie Mae purchase only loans 22

FICO score distribution 23

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 24-26

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 27-29

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 30

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 31-32

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae breakdown (FICO, LTV, DTI) 33-35

Prepayments 

Aggregate 36

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 37-38

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 39

Multifamily 40

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 41

Dealer net positions, repo volume 42

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 43

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 44

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 45

Foreign ownership of MBS 46-47

Fed Ownership of MBS 48
HIGHLIGHTS

The increase in first time homebuyers is likely to continue

Page 21 shows the first-time homebuyer (FTHB) share of purchase loans by agency (Fannie Mae, Freddie 

Mac and Ginnie Mae.) The FTHB share has trended higher in post-recession in part because more FTHBs 

have entered the market, but also because repeat buying activity remains low by historical standards. 

Falling house prices during the recession deprived millions of homeowners from accumulating equity, which 

was the traditional vehicle for trading up from a starter home. But with strong house price appreciation in 

recent years, will we see more repeat buying activity? 

Likely not. Although homeowners have more equity today than during the recession, most of them also have 

ultra-low rate mortgages they locked-in during the recession, when rates were persistently low (well under 

4 percent for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage) for an extended period of time. Today, rates are well above 4.5 

percent. If these households were to trade up, they would need to give up the lower rate in exchange for a 

much higher one. And the more rates rise in the coming months, the bigger this difference will become and 

the more interest trade up buyers will have to pay. As a result, many homebuyers will stay in their existing 

homes. This would continue to dampen repeat buying volumes and keep pushing the FTHB share higher. 

The impact of this dynamic on Ginnie Mae issuances should be minimal because the vast majority of 

borrowers served by Ginnie Mae (over 70 percent) are FTHBs, in comparison to about 43 percent FTHB 

share for the GSEs.

Highlights this month:

• With the drop in German bund yield, US MBS looks more attractive versus Bund in May 2018 (page 8).

• Serious delinquency rates resumed the decline for all agencies in Q1 2018 after last quarter’s uptick 

(page 11).

• The total value of the US Housing Market continued to rise in Q1 2018, driven by a $538 billion increase 

in household equity (page 14).

• Agency refinance shares declined sharply in April, as interest rates remained high and purchase activity 

picked up in spring (page 20).

• Fed absorption of gross issuance dropped to new historical low in April 2018, as Fed’s MBS taper size 

increased from $4 to $8 billion (page 49).
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of March 2018.

US MBS comprise 28 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index-- slightly less than either the US Treasury share 

(37%) or the US Credit share (30%). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS comprises the largest percent of US MBS (10%), while 

Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie Mac 30-year MBS comprise 8 percent and 6 percent of the market, 

respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the balance (4%) of the US MBS share. US securities 

are the largest single contributor to the Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 38 percent of the global total. US 

MBS comprises 11 percent of the global aggregate. 

37%

2%

30%

8%

10%

6%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

6%

25%

11%

1%

3%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2%

3% 1%

38%

33%

21%

1%

0.04% 2%

0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

4
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of May 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of May 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2018.

US Treasury interest rates, as measured by the 10-year note, continue to be the highest in the developed world. The 

US 10-year Treasury note decreased slightly to 2.86 percent this month. Interest rates in the UK, Germany, and 

Japan all decreased to 1.23, 0.34, and 0.04 percent, respectively, while interest rates in Italy increased sharply to 

2.79 percent due to the political risks associated with its general election. If Treasury notes are hedged into foreign 

currencies, 10-year US Treasury yields are 36 basis points (bps) in JPY, and 4 bps in EUR. The hedged yield difference 

between the 10-year Treasuries and JGBs narrowed to 32 bps, while the hedged yield difference between the 10-

year Treasuries and Bunds narrowed to -31 bps.

Yield(%)Yield(%)

5
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2018.

The nominal yield on current coupon GNMA II and GNMA I securities decreased slightly in May 2018. Current 

coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 10-year 

Treasury yields) by 64 and 65 bps on G2SF and GNSF, respectively, which is slightly higher than in April.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

6
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2018.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus many 

sovereign alternatives. The figures show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into Japanese yen 

yield more than the JGB 5/10 blend by 96 and 97 bps, respectively. These latest spreads are relatively 

consistent with April levels.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

7
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2018.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus sovereign 

alternatives. The figures show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into euros yield more than the 

average of the German 5/10 blend by 56 and 57 bps, respectively. These latest spreads represent a 16-19 basis 

point widening from April levels.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

8
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of May 2018.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most securities with the same or longer durations. The only 

security class with significantly more yield is the US high yield index, where interest rate risk does not fully 

capture the volatility of the high yield asset class. Investors are unable to match the yield on Ginnie Mae 

securities, while preserving the full government guarantee, even if they extend their duration significantly.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.6 2.70

US 10y 8.6 2.86

GNMA II 3% 6.8 3.38

GNMA II 3.5% 6.0 3.49

JPY 5y 4.8 -0.12

JPY 10y 9.7 0.05

GER 5y 4.8 -0.27

GER 10y 9.4 0.34

ITA 5y 4.5 1.94

ITA 10y 8.4 2.77

US credit 7.1 3.81

US credit >= A 7.3 3.67

US HY 4.0 6.42

Pan-Euro Corp 5.8 1.26

Pan-Euro HY 3.7 3.73

US 5y

US 10y

G2 3.0%

G2 3.5%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield per duration

9
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.04 -0.07 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.12

3 year 0.08 0.06 0.22 0.08 0.41 0.27

5 year 0.15 0.11 0.26 0.28 0.41 0.45

10 year 0.29 0.26 0.45 0.41 0.68 0.79

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.15 -0.18 -0.10 0.08 0.08 0.19

3 year 0.03 0.01 0.17 0.13 0.36 0.32

5 year 0.12 0.07 0.22 0.32 0.38 0.49

10 year 0.27 0.23 0.43 0.40 0.66 0.79

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.60 0.79 0.81 0.45 0.60 0.75

3 year 0.55 0.92 1.09 1.02 1.61 1.42

5 year 0.63 0.91 1.13 1.03 1.50 1.27

10 year 0.76 1.18 1.75 1.40 3.00 3.52

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.25 -0.23 -0.13 0.17 0.14 0.25

3 year 0.06 0.01 0.15 0.13 0.22 0.23

5 year 0.19 0.08 0.20 0.31 0.25 0.39

10 year 0.36 0.20 0.24 0.29 0.22 0.22

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of May 2018.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade has been slightly higher than the US Treasury 

index, but lower than many alternatives, including the US Investment-Grade Corporate and US and European 

High Yield indices. However, the standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has 

the least price volatility. The result: the excess return per unit of risk for the mortgage market is the highest of any 

market over the past decade, as measured by the Sharpe Ratio.

10
State of the US Housing Market

8.0%

7.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Sep-01

Mar-02

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

CoreLogic HPI year-over-year Zillow HPI year-over-year

Sources: CoreLogic, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

1.16%

0.97%

4.22%

2.22%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

3Q051Q063Q061Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q171Q18

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q1 2018.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquencies for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans, and VA loans declined in Q1 2018, after last 

quarter’s seasonal and hurricane-related uptick. The delinquency rates for FHA and VA went down to 4.22 

percent and 2.22 percent, respectively, and delinquency rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went down to 

1.16 and 0.97 percent, respectively. GSE delinquencies remain high relative to 2005-2007, while FHA and VA 

delinquencies (which are higher than their GSE counterparts) are at levels lower than 2005-2007. Home price 

changes turned positive in 2012, and continues to increase approximately 7-8 percent per year, as measured by 

both CoreLogic and Zillow.

11
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: CoreLogic and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of March 2018. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when HPI 

reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to the lowest 

level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 03/2018, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, the nominal home prices have improved by 54.0 percent since the trough, and have exceeded their precrisis peak valuation. However, the picture is very different for different states, with many states well in excess of 

the prior peak, while Nevada is 24.8 percent below peak levels and Connecticut is 22.7 percent below peak levels.

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Below Peak

National 93.7% -33.2% 54.0% 7.0% -2.9%

Alabama 45.7% -19.9% 24.5% 4.6% 0.3%

Alaska 68.9% -9.4% 17.9% 1.7% -6.4%

Arizona 121.5% -50.5% 73.1% 6.9% 16.7%

Arkansas 39.6% -7.6% 17.1% 4.5% -7.6%

California 149.0% -42.4% 82.5% 8.9% -4.8%

Colorado 40.4% -13.7% 71.7% 8.5% -32.5%

Connecticut 79.5% -24.9% 8.4% 2.6% 22.7%

Delaware 90.3% -23.8% 19.9% 2.7% 9.5%

District of Columbia 150.5% -10.4% 38.5% 1.4% -19.6%

Florida 149.2% -49.6% 68.4% 5.9% 17.8%

Georgia 40.5% -30.7% 55.9% 5.9% -7.3%

Hawaii 152.0% -20.9% 48.1% 6.1% -14.6%

Idaho 85.4% -40.8% 81.0% 12.3% -6.6%

Illinois 59.9% -32.5% 30.1% 2.6% 14.0%

Indiana 24.4% -16.4% 30.8% 6.1% -8.5%

Iowa 25.5% -4.9% 21.2% 3.6% -13.3%

Kansas 33.2% -14.0% 28.3% 4.7% -9.3%

Kentucky 27.0% -8.9% 24.8% 5.9% -12.0%

Louisiana 58.8% -7.5% 26.5% 5.5% -14.7%

Maine 92.2% -19.3% 33.4% 4.9% -9.9%

Maryland 137.7% -31.1% 21.2% 3.2% 19.7%

Massachusetts 81.7% -21.2% 41.5% 6.0% -10.4%

Michigan 26.2% -43.2% 77.8% 7.2% -1.2%

Minnesota 69.7% -28.1% 45.4% 6.5% -4.3%

Mississippi 34.2% -18.3% 23.0% 6.0% 0.8%

Missouri 46.2% -22.3% 34.8% 7.6% -4.6%

Montana 80.0% -16.6% 42.0% 8.5% -15.7%

Nebraska 25.3% -5.3% 28.8% 5.1% -18.0%

Nevada 129.0% -59.9% 99.7% 12.6% 24.8%

New Hampshire 82.6% -23.8% 31.6% 4.4% -0.2%

New Jersey 109.6% -26.4% 16.1% 3.8% 17.0%

New Mexico 64.3% -26.4% 22.1% 4.8% 11.4%

New York 101.9% -13.9% 32.3% 5.8% -12.2%

North Carolina 39.8% -14.6% 29.7% 4.7% -9.7%

North Dakota 50.5% -1.9% 51.8% 7.1% -32.9%

Ohio 22.2% -20.4% 33.0% 6.8% -5.6%

Oklahoma 35.8% -3.1% 15.4% 1.9% -10.6%

Oregon 87.5% -29.3% 71.6% 7.2% -17.7%

Pennsylvania 71.7% -12.9% 16.6% 4.1% -1.5%

Rhode Island 131.0% -34.2% 36.1% 8.7% 11.7%

South Carolina 61.5% -22.2% 34.5% 5.2% -4.6%

South Dakota 37.3% -3.4% 31.8% 2.0% -21.3%

Tennessee 41.3% -13.2% 40.0% 7.1% -17.7%

Texas 39.4% -13.2% 50.9% 5.8% -23.7%

Utah 64.8% -31.7% 71.3% 11.2% -14.6%

Vermont 81.6% -9.1% 13.0% 2.1% -2.5%

Virginia 135.1% -30.6% 30.8% 2.9% 10.0%

Washington 90.2% -28.1% 77.6% 12.6% -21.7%

West Virginia 81.1% -26.9% 23.9% 2.5% 10.5%

Wisconsin 48.6% -17.2% 27.3% 5.9% -5.1%

Wyoming 75.5% -14.5% 25.9% 0.4% -6.7%

12
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State Ginnie Mae Share Ginnie Mae Average

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan 

Size (Thousands)

Ginnie Mae 

Share

Ginnie Mae Average 

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan

Size (Thousands)

National 34.3% 212.4 228.5 32.1% 179.2 209.4

Alabama 45.9% 159.4 181.7 46.9% 142.5 169.4

Alaska 53.0% 280.6 244.7 51.9% 256.9 229.2

Arizona 34.9% 206.8 212.4 34.2% 177.1 192.5

Arkansas 44.6% 140.9 166.5 46.6% 123.2 153.8

California 28.4% 342.1 326.3 22.1% 286.8 294.1

Colorado 33.5% 277.8 268.4 30.1% 230.6 239.0

Connecticut 33.0% 214.3 226.3 29.8% 203.8 218.4

Delaware 39.9% 211.8 222.2 37.3% 198.9 208.7

District of Columbia 18.0% 402.9 354.5 17.4% 329.1 334.1

Florida 39.5% 207.8 203.9 36.4% 174.7 186.0

Georgia 42.1% 182.0 205.6 40.7% 155.6 187.3

Hawaii 40.0% 491.4 381.4 31.8% 421.1 347.7

Idaho 34.9% 192.6 197.2 34.7% 163.8 177.1

Illinois 27.1% 176.5 198.0 25.2% 156.0 183.8

Indiana 40.2% 140.2 155.5 39.4% 122.4 142.4

Iowa 27.0% 144.0 162.3 26.8% 125.8 149.6

Kansas 37.5% 154.0 174.7 36.9% 133.4 157.9

Kentucky 41.0% 148.2 166.0 40.0% 133.5 151.0

Louisiana 43.8% 168.6 192.9 43.4% 151.3 178.4

Maine 36.5% 182.3 197.5 33.0% 167.2 181.6

Maryland 45.1% 281.1 262.4 39.9% 253.6 247.9

Massachusetts 24.6% 287.6 280.4 19.7% 254.5 256.3

Michigan 26.6% 144.4 167.7 26.5% 124.0 152.3

Minnesota 26.3% 195.1 207.5 25.5% 170.7 191.2

Mississippi 51.3% 151.1 170.0 52.2% 132.7 158.7

Missouri 36.9% 150.1 171.5 36.4% 133.1 157.0

Montana 32.5% 212.1 214.7 31.5% 183.9 193.2

Nebraska 32.4% 160.4 169.6 35.2% 135.9 154.6

Nevada 39.3% 236.1 226.5 39.7% 198.4 200.8

New Hampshire 32.8% 229.8 222.6 30.1% 209.5 203.3

New Jersey 30.7% 248.3 263.3 28.1% 233.1 249.5

New Mexico 44.3% 177.0 185.9 44.0% 157.0 173.4

New York 27.4% 240.6 264.8 26.4% 206.1 243.9

North Carolina 35.4% 178.2 199.6 35.8% 155.6 185.3

North Dakota 29.4% 209.1 204.4 26.8% 181.3 187.0

Ohio 37.1% 140.9 156.3 37.6% 125.5 144.7

Oklahoma 47.5% 150.7 170.0 49.9% 131.9 157.7

Oregon 28.3% 250.0 254.0 25.4% 211.3 223.2

Pennsylvania 34.5% 166.6 192.2 33.7% 152.4 181.2

Rhode Island 38.9% 223.3 218.1 34.2% 201.6 203.7

South Carolina 40.9% 181.8 191.6 39.0% 159.1 178.2

South Dakota 37.6% 173.7 182.4 36.9% 155.4 166.3

Tennessee 41.8% 179.1 198.8 42.6% 151.1 179.5

Texas 35.8% 194.2 212.4 38.1% 154.5 192.6

Utah 30.8% 233.4 244.7 31.3% 202.5 220.5

Vermont 23.5% 193.1 195.9 19.9% 181.8 183.1

Virginia 46.1% 268.6 257.8 41.9% 243.9 244.7

Washington 31.9% 278.4 281.1 30.0% 234.1 246.0

West Virginia 48.9% 154.4 154.6 46.0% 139.3 147.1

Wisconsin 24.1% 164.7 174.7 21.6% 147.3 161.5

Wyoming 42.6% 210.3 208.1 41.5% 194.0 196.0

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae share are based on loan balance as of April 2018.

Ginnie Mae loans constitute 32.1 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance, 34.3 percent of the 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstandings (as measured by loan balance) as low as 17.4 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 52.2 

percent in Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

13
State of the US Housing Market

$10.6

$15.7

$26.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q1

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt, household mortgages Household equity Total Value

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Data as of Q1 2018.

$0.5

$0.6

$6.4

$3.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q1

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Second Liens Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Inside Mortgage Finance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, and credit unions. Data as of Q1 2018.

The Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report has consistently indicated an increasing total value of the housing 

market driven by growing household equity since 2012, and 2018 Q1 was no different. While total debt and 

mortgages was stable at $10.6 trillion, household equity reached a new high of $15.7 trillion, bringing the total 

value of the housing market to $26.4 trillion, 10 percent higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Agency MBS 

make up 59.3 percent of the total mortgage market, private-label securities make up 4.9 percent, and 

unsecuritized first liens at the GSEs, commercial banks, savings institutions, and credit unions make up 30.1 

percent. Second liens comprise the remaining 5.7 percent of the total.

14
State of the US Housing Market

As of April 2018, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $6.45 trillion and were 43.7 percent Fannie 

Mae, 27.4 percent Freddie Mac, and 29.0 percent Ginnie Mae. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than Freddie 

Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, VA has been growing very rapidly--comprising 33.5 percent of total Ginnie 

Mae outstandings.

$2.81

$1.76

$1.87

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Apr-01

Oct-01

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

$1.1

$0.6

$0.1

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

Apr-01

Oct-01

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of April 2018.

15
State of the US Housing Market

$0.83

$0.44

$0.02

$0.52

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2017.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

First Lien Origination Share

After a record high origination year in 2016 ($2.1 trillion), the first lien originations totaled $1.8 trillion in 2017, 

down 14 percent from 2016, mostly due to elevated interest rates. The portfolio origination share was 29 percent, 

the GSE share was 46 percent, and the FHA/VA share was 24 percent, all relatively consistent with 2016 shares. 

Origination of private-label securities was under 1 percent in both years.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2017. 

28.9%

0.8%

24.4%

45.8%

16
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total Agency

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 YTD $68.8 $54.6 $5.4 $128.8

2018 % Change YOY -16.6% 0.2% -15.7% -10.2%

2018 Ann. $206.4 $163.7 $16.2 $386.3

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 YTD $159.6 $90.4 $249.9 $128.8 $378.7

2018 % Change YOY -7.2% -18.9% -11.8% -10.2% -11.3%

2018 Ann. $478.7 $271.1 $749.8 $386.3 $1,136.1

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of April 2018.

Agency gross issuance totaled $378.7 billion in the first four months of 2018, down by 11.3 percent compared to 

the same time period in 2017. Ginnie Mae gross issuance was down by 10.2 percent and GSE gross issuance was 

down by 11.8 percent. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA is down by 16.6 percent and VA origination is up by 0.2 

percent. The decline in origination volume is the result of higher interest rates.

17
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 YTD $9.9 $19.2 $1.0 $30.1

2018 %Change YOY -37.4% -19.8% -28.7% -26.8%

2018 Ann. $29.6 $57.6 $3.0 $90.2

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $57.5 $11.6 $69.1 $87.9 $157.0

2014 $0.5 $30.0 $30.5 $61.6 $92.1

2015 $10.2 $65.0 $75.1 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $68.6 $66.8 $135.5 $125.3 $260.8

2017 $90.2 $78.2 $168.5 $131.3 $299.7

2018 YTD $27.0 $11.7 $38.7 $30.1 $68.8

2018 %Change YOY -5.6% -52.6% -27.4% -26.8% -27.2%

2018Ann. $81.0 $35.1 $116.1 $90.2 $206.3

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom) 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of April 2018.

Agency net issuance totaled $68.8 billion in the first four months of 2018, down 27.2 percent compared to 2017. 

Ginnie Mae net issuance was $30.1 billion, comprising 43.8 percent of total agency net issuance. Note that Ginnie 

Mae net issuance is down 26.8 percent compared to the first four months of 2017. Ginnie Mae net issuance in 2018 is 

comprised of 64.0 percent VA issuance, 32.8 percent FHA issuance and 3.4 percent other issuance.

18
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of April 2018.

Agency gross issuance totaled $95.2 billion in April 2018, up slightly from $85.9 billion of issuance in March 2018. 

Since March 2017, monthly agency gross issuance has been lower than in the same period of the previous year, 

reflecting higher mortgage rates. 

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Jan-15 $36.8 $22.9 $27.5 -$1.2 $0.8 $2.5

Feb-15 $35.4 $29.9 $23.9 $1.5 $10.1 $2.9

Mar-15 $44.8 $26.0 $30.7 $3.1 $1.1 $0.6

Apr-15 $49.3 $33.8 $40.6 -$1.2 $3.8 $4.3

May-15 $42.4 $33.2 $39.4 -$2.9 $6.6 $5.8

Jun-15 $44.6 $34.4 $40.5 $0.8 $8.3 $9.1

Jul-15 $46.0 $39.2 $45.6 $1.0 $12.3 $13.3

Aug-15 $39.4 $27.6 $43.4 -$2.2 $3.1 $14.9

Sep-15 $45.3 $30.4 $39.4 $7.6 $7.9 $12.7

Oct-15 $41.5 $28.4 $39.2 $4.8 $6.4 $12.4

Nov-15 $28.8 $23.3 $35.8 -$8.1 $1.3 $10.6

Dec-15 $39.7 $22.8 $30.3 $7.1 $3.2 $8.2

Jan-16 $35.6 $22.5 $32.5 -$0.6 $1.0 $7.3

Feb-16 $32.4 $21.2 $30.5 $2.4 $3.1 $8.4

Mar-16 $39.7 $27.5 $32.9 $7.9 $8.2 $9.6

Apr-16 $43.8 $26.2 $40.1 $0.8 -$0.2 $8.8

May-16 $44.2 $29.9 $41.6 $2.4 $4.4 $11.4

Jun-16 $46.7 $30.1 $43.9 $2.7 $3.0 $11.9

Jul-16 $49.8 $35.3 $46.1 $2.3 $6.3 $10.8

Aug-16 $54.9 $37.9 $46.7 $10.4 $11.0 $13.8

Sep-16 $65.8 $44.0 $52.5 $8.7 $9.0 $12.5

Oct-16 $66.0 $35.9 $47.4 $11.8 $2.7 $9.3

Nov-16 $48.8 $40.2 $47.2 -$3.5 $7.9 $10.3

Dec-16 $72.7 $40.5 $46.8 $23.3 $10.4 $10.8

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $10.3 $10.7 $10.3

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $3.1 $6.5 $9.2

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $10.3 $6.2 $9.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $4.8 $0.4 $11.7

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $7.6 $2.7 $13.1

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $8.3 $2.4 $13.2

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $5.8 $3.5 $12.1

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $12.0 $6.7 $15.6

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $7.4 $3.8 $10.5

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $6.4 $12.5 $10.7

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $4.6 $13.6 $8.2

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $9.6 $8.2 $6.8

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $12.4 $0.3 $7.8

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $8.0 $2.3 $7.1

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $4.9 $3.0 $6.1

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $1.71 $6.1 $9.1

Monthly Agency Issuance

19
US Agency Market, Originations

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Mortgage Rate

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance

Freddie Mac (left) Fannie Mae (left) Ginnie Mae (left) Mortgage rate (right)

23.6%

35.4%

2.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of April 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. Data as of April 2018.

The Ginnie Mae refi share stood at 26 percent in April 2018, below the 45 and 38 percent shares for Fannie Mae 

and Freddie Mac, respectively. Within Ginnie Mae, VA had the highest refi share at 35.4 percent in April 2018, 

followed by FHA’s 23.6 percent refi share. In April, the refinance share declined sharply for all agencies. This is a 

result of increasing interest rates and the end of the winter lull in purchase activity that keeps the refi share up in 

the winter months. Loans sold into agency pools in April are based on February and March home sales.

20
Credit Box

39.1%

44.8%

71.1%

54.2%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

First time homebuyers are important to the Ginnie Mae market, comprising 71 percent of purchase originations, 

compared to Fannie and Freddie’s respective 45 percent and 39 percent share of the first-time homebuyer 

market. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated in April 2018, the average first-time 

homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan and have a lower credit score, 

a much higher LTV and a similar DTI, thus requiring a higher interest rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 227,008 255,965 242,089 261,229 201,486 247,129 215,977 254,945 

Credit Score 734.5 751.4 742.6 756.2 679.4 700.2 706.0 736.7

LTV (%) 87.7 78.8 85.9 79.0 96.9 95.8 92.4 84.2

DTI (%) 36.7 37.0 35.3 36.4 41.5 42.5 39.1 38.5

Loan Rate (%) 4.59 4.43 4.45 4.39 4.58 4.43 4.56 4.41

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of April 2018.

21
Credit Box

77.7%

54.7%

80.1%

71.1%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Purchase Only Loans Breakdown by Source

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the 

Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 78 percent of FHA loans, 55 percent of VA loans and 80 percent of other 

loans represent financing for first time home buyers. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated 

in April 2018, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a 

smaller loan and have a lower credit score, and similar LTVs and DTIs, thus requiring a higher interest rate.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 197,450 218,474 239,630 288,482 142,202 154,919 201,486 247,129 

Credit Score 670.4 674.5 698.8 726.9 695.1 694.7 679.4 700.2

LTV (%) 95.6 94.2 99.9 96.9 99.5 99.6 96.9 95.8

DTI (%) 42.7 43.7 40.7 42.0 35.5 36.2 41.5 42.5

Loan Rate (%) 4.65 4.58 4.42 4.26 4.47 4.50 4.58 4.43

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

22
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2016.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 502 524 583 676 772 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

308 569 613 680 751 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (676) is lower than the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (680).

23
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 244,677 641 676 727 773 796 722 

Fannie 77,135 677 713 753 784 801 745 

Freddie 65,699 691 723 760 787 801 752 

Ginnie 101,843 623 645 677 722 769 685 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 140,243 642 680 725 769 795 721 

Fannie 62,591 654 691 735 775 797 730 

Freddie 44,843 671 703 743 778 798 738 

Ginnie 32,809 609 641 678 720 762 681 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 384,920 641 677 726 772 796 722 

Fannie 139,726 665 702 746 781 799 738 

Freddie 110,542 682 714 754 784 801 746 

Ginnie 134,652 621 644 677 721 767 684 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 101,843 623 645 677 722 769 685 

FHA 62,376 618 639 666 700 738 671 

VA 30,300 632 662 711 764 793 712 

Other 9,167 639 658 691 731 765 695 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 32,809 609 641 678 720 762 681 

FHA 17,876 600 631 663 698 736 665 

VA 14,745 626 657 697 743 779 699 

Other 188 612 662 716 756 798 705 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 134,652 621 644 677 721 767 684 

FHA 80,252 614 638 665 700 738 670 

VA 45,045 630 660 705 758 790 707 

Other 9,355 639 658 692 731 766 695 

April 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of April 2018.

In April2018, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 677 versus 746 for Fannie and 754 for Freddie. Note that the 

FICO score for the 10th percentile was 621 for Ginnie Mae, versus 665 for Fannie and 682 for Freddie. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 665, VA loans have a median FICO score of 705 and 

other loans have a median FICO score of 692.

24
April 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 243,370 72.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 87.9 

Fannie 77,024 63.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 97.0 82.4 

Freddie 65,746 61.0 75.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 81.1 

Ginnie 100,600 93.5 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.6 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 142,346 43.0 59.0 73.4 80.0 90.5 69.7 

Fannie 62,601 39.0 54.0 68.0 77.0 80.0 64.2 

Freddie 44,896 40.0 56.0 70.0 79.0 80.0 65.2 

Ginnie 34,849 67.3 80.5 86.5 95.9 100.0 85.3 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 385,716 55.0 73.0 84.0 96.5 98.5 81.2 

Fannie 139,625 48.0 64.0 80.0 90.0 95.0 74.2 

Freddie 110,642 49.0 67.0 80.0 88.0 95.0 74.6 

Ginnie 135,449 82.7 93.0 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.7 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 100,600 93.5 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.6 

FHA 62,489 93.4 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.3 

VA 28,899 92.0 100.0 100.0 102.2 103.3 98.6 

Other 9,212 95.7 99.3 101.0 101.0 102.0 99.5 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 34,849 67.3 80.5 86.5 95.9 100.0 85.3 

FHA 18,322 66.8 79.3 86.5 86.5 96.1 82.4 

VA 16,258 67.7 82.2 92.2 100.0 102.2 88.5 

Other 269 77.0 83.2 91.9 99.8 103.0 90.1 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 135,449 82.7 93.0 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.7 

FHA 80,811 83.1 91.0 96.5 96.5 96.5 92.3 

VA 45,157 80.0 92.7 100.0 101.2 103.3 95.0 

Other 9,481 94.8 99.2 101.0 101.0 102.0 99.2 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of April 2018.

In April 2018, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, 80 percent for Fannie Mae, 

and 80 percent for Freddie Mac. The 10th percentile was 82.7 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 48-49 percent for Fannie 

Mae and Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 100.0 for VA and 101.0 for 

other programs. 

25
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 244,711 25.0 32.0 40.0 46.0 50.0 38.5 

Fannie 77,188 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 48.0 36.6 

Freddie 65,746 22.0 29.0 37.0 44.0 48.0 35.7 

Ginnie 101,777 29.1 35.6 42.3 48.9 54.0 41.8 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 134,291 23.0 30.0 38.8 45.0 49.0 37.3 

Fannie 61,596 22.0 29.0 38.0 45.0 49.0 36.5 

Freddie 44,377 22.0 29.0 37.0 44.0 48.0 35.8 

Ginnie 28,318 26.8 34.3 42.1 48.8 54.0 41.1 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 379,002 24.0 31.0 39.1 45.7 49.8 38.1 

Fannie 138,784 23.0 30.0 38.0 45.0 48.0 36.6 

Freddie 110,123 22.0 29.0 37.0 44.0 48.0 35.8 

Ginnie 130,095 28.6 35.3 42.2 48.9 54.0 41.6 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 101,777 29.1 35.6 42.3 48.9 54.0 41.8 

FHA 62,506 30.2 36.9 43.9 49.9 54.5 42.9 

VA 30,167 28.2 35.1 41.2 48.3 53.7 41.3 

Other 9,104 26.6 31.5 36.5 40.4 43.3 35.6 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 28,318 26.8 34.3 42.1 48.8 54.0 41.1 

FHA 15,669 27.8 35.2 43.1 49.3 54.3 41.8 

VA 12,478 25.9 33.2 41.0 48.0 53.5 40.3 

Other 171 18.1 23.2 31.4 38.5 42.7 31.0 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 130,095 28.6 35.3 42.2 48.9 54.0 41.6 

FHA 78,175 29.7 36.6 43.8 49.8 54.4 42.7 

VA 42,645 27.5 34.5 41.2 48.2 53.6 41.0 

Other 9,275 26.4 31.4 36.5 40.4 43.3 35.5 

April 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of April 2018.

In April 2018, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 42.2 percent, considerably higher than the 37-

38 percent median DTIs for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 54.0 percent, also 

much higher than the 48 .0 percent DTIs for the GSEs. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 

43.8 percent, versus 41.2 percent for VA and 36.5 percent for other lending programs. 

26
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

746

754

677

726

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

The median FICO score for all agency MBS originated in April now stands at 726, slightly lower than last 

month. The figures clearly show that the median FICO score for Ginnie Mae borrowers has always been 

considerably lower than for GSE borrowers. The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrowers is wider 

in purchase loans than in refi loans.

27
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

LTV Ratio for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 80 percent 

LTVs for the GSEs. Through time, both Ginnie Mae and GSE refinances have LTVs about 6-12 points lower 

than their purchase counterparts. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of April 2018.

84

80

28
Credit Box: Historical

37.0

38.0

42.2

39.1

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

DTI Ratio for Refinance Loans 

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Debt-to-income Ratio

DTI Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of April 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of April 2018.

Median debt-to-income ratios on Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher 

than that of the GSEs. DTIs have been inching up over the past year for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with the 

movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae loans. Increases in DTIs are very typical during periods in which 

interest rates are rising. Rising interest rates are usually accompanied by rising home prices, leaving borrowers 

with sharply higher monthly payments. This is usually accompanied by sharp decreases in refinancing activity, 

making lenders more apt to work a bit harder to get a loan approved for a marginal borrower.

29
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of April 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of April 2018.

The nonbank origination share has been generally increasing since 2013. In April 2018, the Ginnie Mae 

nonbank originator share stood at 80 percent. Nonbank originator shares for Freddie Mac reached new 

historical highs, now standing at around 58 percent, while nonbank originator shares for Fannie Mae dipped 

slightly to 54 percent. For Ginnie Mae, the non-bank refi share was higher than the non-bank purchase share. 

The differences were more modest for the GSEs.

64%

58%

54%

80%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

30
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of April 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of April 2018.

In April 2018, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share dipped slightly to 80 percent. Nonbank originator shares for FHA, 

VA, and Other issuance also came down slightly to 84, 74, and 80 percent, respectively. The nonbank 

originator share is higher for refinance loans than for purchase loans across all channels.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

84%

80%

74%

31
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of April 2018. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of April 2018. 

726

744

715

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018. 

670

690

710

730

750

770

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

670

690

710

730

750

770

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. The median GSE and the median Ginnie Mae 

FICO scores for loans originated by nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, both bank 

and nonbank FICOs have declined since 2014 with a further relaxation in FICOs since early 2017. In contrast, within 

the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations have increased since 2014 while nonbank FICOs have 

declined. This largely reflects the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks.

32
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTV ratios for loans originated by nonbanks are similar to that of their bank counterparts, while the median 

DTIs for nonbank loans are higher, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in this as well as in the FICO 

dimension. Note that since early 2017, there has been a measurable increase in DTIs. This is true for both bank and 

non-bank originations. Rising DTIs are to be expected in a rising rate environment.

33
670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of April 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of April 2018

The FICO scores for Ginnie Mae bank originators increased in April 2018, while the FICO scores for Ginnie Mae 

nonbank originators declined. The spread in the FICO scores between banks and non-banks narrowed slightly, 

but remains close to their widest level since the data became available in 2013. The gap between banks and 

non-banks is very apparent in all programs backing Ginnie Mae securities: FHA, VA, and Other.

655

660

665

670

675

680

685

690

695

700

705

710

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

660

665

670

675

680

685

690

695

700

705

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of April 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of April 2018

34
90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median LTV VA Bank Median LTV

VA Nonbank Median LTV

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of April 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of April 2018.

An analysis of the loans backing Ginnie Mae origination indicates that there are virtually no difference in 

median LTV ratios between bank originated loans and non-bank originated loans. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae LTV: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Ginnie Mae FHA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median LTV FHA Bank Median LTV

FHA Nonbank Median LTV

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Ginnie Mae Other LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median LTV Other Bank Median LTV

Other Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of April 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of April 2018

35
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of April 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of April 2018

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former are more 

conservative. The DTIs for FHA and VA loans experienced notable increases since early 2017 for both bank and 

nonbank originations, while the Other originations’ DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are to be expected in 

a rising rate environment.

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of April 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of April 2018

36
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Aug-11 May-12 Feb-13 Nov-13 Aug-14 May-15 Feb-16 Nov-16 Aug-17 May-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae securities were lower than on GSE securities from 2011 through mid-2013, but have 

been higher since. These differences hold across all coupon buckets. The differences are especially pronounced on 

more recent production. These increased Ginnie speeds reflect the growing share of VA loans, which prepay at faster 

speeds than either FHA or GSE loans. This also reflects the fact that FHA streamlined refinances apply to a wide range 

of borrowers and unlike GSE streamlined refinances, requires no credit report and no appraisal. Some of the upfront 

mortgage insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. Moreover, both FHA and VA permit 

refinancing of existing mortgages after 6 months, while the GSEs do not allow refinancing for a year. With the 

increase in interest rates since November 2016, the prepayment speeds for all agencies have slowed down 

considerably. Over the past year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economic to refinance, the 

muted month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day count and changes in mortgage rates. 

With mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we would expect prepayments in the coming months to stay muted.

14%

12%

10%

16%

12%

37
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2013 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2012 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

The 2013 Ginnie II 3.0s are prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts. 2012 Ginnie II 3.5s have been 

faster since mid-2013. The differences accelerated in 2015—potentially due to the FHA mortgage insurance 

premium (MIP) cut. In January 2015 FHA lowered its MIPs from 135 basis points per annum to 85 basis points 

per annum; this gives 2012 and 2013 FHA mortgages taken out with MIPs of 125-135 bps a 40-50 basis point 

rate incentive that conventional mortgages do not have. GSE guarantee fees have gone up over that same period, 

creating a disincentive for conventional loans. Moreover, recent originations are more heavily VA loans, which 

are more prepayment responsive than either FHA or Conventional loans. After a sharp mortgage rate rise in 

November 2016, the prepayment speeds of Ginnie and Conventional loans both fell dramatically. Over the past 

year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economic to refinance, the muted month to month 

variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With 

mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we would expect prepayments in the coming months to stay muted.

15%

11%

14%

9%

38
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

The 2011 Ginnie II 4.0s and 4.5s have been prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts since late 

2013. Faster VA mortgage prepays plus simplifications to the FHA streamlined programs in 2013 are likely 

contributors to the faster speeds. However, as mortgage rates rose sharply since November 2016, the speeds 

for all agencies have slowed down considerably. Over the past year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe 

finding it non-economic to refinance, the muted month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, 

changes in day count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we 

would expect prepayments in the coming months to stay muted.

16%

13%

12%

16%

15%

14%

39
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$56.5

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance went up in April 2018, after declining sharply in March. The choppiness 

the past few months was largely due to the implementation of the new, lower principal limit factors that went 

into effect in March 2018. In April 2018, reverse mortgage issuance stood at $1.2 billion, and outstanding 

securities totaled $56.5 billion.

$1.2

40
Multifamily Market

$1.4

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$111.6

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volumes in April totaled $1.4 billion. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled 

$111.6 billion in April.

41
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

$227 

$554

$34 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.57%

3.68%

0.38% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$Billions

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume was $227 billion/day in May 2018; slightly more robust than in the 2014-2017 

period. Agency MBS turnover has also been higher in 2018 than in the 2014-2017 period; in the first five 

months of 2018, average daily MBS turnover was 3.57 percent versus 3.38 percent in 2017. Both average daily 

mortgage and Treasury turnover are down dramatically from their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is 

miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

42
Market Conditions

$206.3

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$38.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

Dealer net positions in agency MBS are now at the very lower end of the recent range, although gross 

positions are likely down more. The volume of repurchase activity is near its lowest level in 13 years. This 

reflects banks cutting back on lower margin businesses. 

43
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual 

Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2018.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (20 

percent), commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (12 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares 

are a fraction of what they once were. 

% of Total Agency 

Debt by Owner

44
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2018.

72.0%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2018.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, fewer agency notes and bonds are required to 

fund that activity, hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. For Q1 2018, the MBS share of total agency 

debt stood at 72.0 percent. Commercial banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $1.8 trillion 

in holdings as of the end of May 2018, $1.3 trillion of it was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Apr-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18May 9 May 16 May 23 May 30

Largest Domestic 

Banks 1,231.2 1,292.1 1,295.5 1,303.2 1,295.2 1,282.3 1,286.6 1,286.4 1,290.2 1,293.9 1,300.0 1,303.2

Small Domestic 

Banks 464.8 478.3 478.0 478.2 479.2 478.6 476.8 480.7 478.2 479.6 481.4 479.9

Foreign Related 

Banks 14.0 12.3 17.6 35.3 33.1 31.9 32.5 33.7 30.9 30.3 30.1 30.6

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1,710.0 1,782.7 1,791.1 1,816.7 1,807.5 1,792.8 1,795.9 1,800.8 1,799.3 1,803.8 1,811.5 1,813.7

45
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $308,503 $179,430 $115,594 $13,187 $292 17.00%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $238,554 $181,671 $48,097 $4,517 $4,269 13.20%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $97,801 $59,735 $27,066 $397 $10,603 5.40%

4 U S. Bancorp. $76,594 $35,012 $12,490 $29,091 $1 4.20%

5 Charles Schwab Bank $73,074 $43,574 $11,650 $17,850 $0 4.00%

6 Citigroup Inc. $58,153 $43,410 $1,522 $9,051 $4,170 3.20%

7 Capital One Financial Corporation $54,663 $17,339 $13,837 $22,337 $1,149 3.00%

8 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $50,822 $30,439 $1,872 $16,767 $1,744 2.80%

9 PNC Bank, National Association $43,169 $33,176 $4,508 $2,683 $2,801 2.40%

10 Branch Banking and Trust Company $39,124 $13,200 $6,517 $18,829 $578 2.20%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $29,674 $10,079 $5,902 $9,478 $4,215 1.60%

12 E*TRADE Bank $24,153 $13,087 $4,723 $6,343 $0 1.30%

13 KeyBank National Association $24,067 $827 $1,052 $22,187 $0 1.30%

14 Morgan Stanley $23,004 $9,133 $7,235 $6,636 $0 1.30%

15 SunTrust Bank $22,490 $11,513 $10,920 $0 $56 1.20%

16 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $21,641 $5,590 $7,464 $8,584 $3 1.20%

17 Regions Bank $18,111 $10,922 $4,747 $2,439 $3 1.00%

18 MUFG Union Bank, National Association $17,628 $5,845 $4,826 $6,264 $693 1.00%

19 Ally Bank $17,147 $9,798 $2,877 $2,251 $2,221 0.90%

20 The Northern Trust Company $16,506 $9,054 $1 $7,419 $32 0.90%

Total Top 20 $1,254,875 $722,832 $292,901 $206,312 $32,831 69.10%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2018.

Out of the $1.8 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts, $1.4 trillion is in agency pass-through form: $1.0 

trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $360.7 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. There are another $412.4 billion in 

Agency CMOs. Non-agency holdings total $45.3 billion. Ginnie Mae pass-throughs have been the fastest growing 

sector in the past 2 years. MBS holdings at banks and thrifts declined slightly in Q1 2018, although over the past 2 

years, the growth has been quite strong, with Ginnie pass-throughs the fastest growing sector.

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

1Q16 $1,660.58 $1,133.29 $833.25 $300.04 $448.63 $10.27 $68.39 

2Q 16 $1,684.33 $1,169.67 $867.64 $302.03 $440.25 $9.11 $65.29 

3Q16 $1,732.36 $1,227.52 $924.81 $302.71 $435.77 $7.90 $61.17 

4Q16 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01 

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

46
MBS Ownership

$906.2

$389.7

$516.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official Foreign Private

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of Q4 2017.

14.4%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

Foreign investors held 14.4 percent of agency MBS in Q4 2017, up sharply from the lows in 2013. For the 

month of February 2018, this represents $906.2 billion in Agency MBS; $389.7 billion held by foreign official 

institutions and $516.5 billion held by foreign private investors. 

47
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2017 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of 

June 2017. Monthly data as of February 2018.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Taiwan, Japan and China; these three comprise around 70 percent 

of all foreign holdings. Since June of 2017 we estimate Japan and Taiwan have expanded their holdings, while 

China has contracted their holdings. We estimate Japan and Taiwan have each added 10-20 billion in agency MBS 

between June 2017 and February 2018.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)*

Change in Holdings 

($Millions)*

Country Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Jan-18 Feb-18

Taiwan 227,195 229,030 234,234 234,050 238,091 1,835 5,204 -184 4,041

Japan 228,466 244,261 241,067 246,949 248,938 15,795 -3,194 5,882 1,989

China 183,393 177,580 170,702 166,241 163,179 -5,813 -6,878 -4,461 -3,062

South Korea 46,791 47,581 45,467 44,734 44,111 790 -2,114 -733 -623

Ireland 44,229 46,648 51,525 49,747 49,777 2,419 4,877 -1,778 30

Luxembourg 31,289 33,026 37,575 33,989 39,848 1,737 4,549 -3,586 5,859

Cayman Islands 32,682 29,016 28,374 28,312 29,419 -3,666 -642 -62 1,107

Bermuda 26,767 27,125 28,904 29,077 28,505 358 1,779 173 -572

Switzerland 17,312 18,675 16,794 17,046 15,891 1,363 -1,881 252 -1,155

Malaysia 12,365 13,162 12,751 12,443 12,165 797 -411 -308 -278

Rest of World 129,723 124,357 125,465 121,837 123,357 -5,366 1,108 -3,628 1,520

Total 980,212 990,461 992,858 984,425 993,281 10,249 2,397 -8,433 8,856

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)*

Change in Holdings 

($Millions)*

Country Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Jan-18 Feb-18

Taiwan 227,073 228,914 234,127 233,939 237,972 1,841 5,213 -188 4,033

Japan 221,528 237,689 234,985 240,648 242,190 16,161 -2,704 5,664 1,542

China 177,546 172,042 165,576 160,931 157,492 -5,504 -6,465 -4,645 -3,439

South Korea 33,891 35,362 34,158 33,019 31,565 1,471 -1,204 -1,139 -1,454

Ireland 33,663 36,640 42,262 40,152 39,501 2,977 5,623 -2,111 -651

Luxembourg 28,314 30,208 34,967 31,287 36,955 1,894 4,759 -3,680 5,667

Cayman Islands 24,897 21,642 21,549 21,242 21,847 -3,255 -93 -307 605

Bermuda 23,156 23,705 25,738 25,798 24,993 549 2,034 59 -805

Switzerland 13,867 15,412 13,774 13,917 12,540 1,545 -1,638 144 -1,377

Malaysia 11,905 12,726 12,348 12,025 11,718 821 -379 -322 -308

Rest of World 94,872 91,345 94,913 90,188 89,462 -3,527 3,567 -4,725 -726

Total 890,712 905,684 914,397 903,147 906,235 14,972 8,713 -11,250 3,088

48
MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

0

50

100

150

200

250

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of April 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of April 2018.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

The Fed has begun to wind down their portfolio, and we are beginning to see the effects in slower absorption 

rates. During the period October 2014-September 2017, the Fed had ended its purchase program, but was 

reinvesting funds from mortgages and agency debt into the mortgage market, absorbing 20-30 percent of agency 

gross issuance. With the wind down, which started in October 2017, the Fed will continue to reinvest, but by less 

than their run off. In April 2018, total Fed purchases decreased to $10.0 billion, yielding Fed absorption of gross 

issuance of 10.5 percent, the lowest level since the Fed began its MBS purchase program, as the size of the MBS 

taper increased from $4 to $8 billion this month. The Fed absorbed 7.9 percent of Ginnie Mae issuance and 11.8 

percent of GSE issuance, respectively.

49
All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise noted. The

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

The views expressed in this material are the views of Urban Institute and State Street Global Advisors as

of June 15, 2018 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document

contains certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such

statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ

materially from those projected.   

© 2018 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

CLADM‐ 2152561.1.1.NA.INST 

Expiration Date: 6/30/2019

[Internal Tracking Code and Expiration Date to be removed upon providing this document to Ginnie

Mae]