Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
CONTENTS

Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 4

Global 10-year treasury yields 5

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 6-8

MBS yield per duration 9

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 10 

State of the US housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 11

National HPI 11

HPI by state 12

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 13

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 14

Outstanding Agency MBS 15

Origination volume over time 16

US Agency Market, Originations

Annual Agency Gross Issuance 17

Annual Agency Net Issuance 18

Monthly Agency Issuance 19

Purchase versus refi: Percent Refi at Issuance 20

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 21

First time home buyer share— Ginnie Mae purchase only loans 22

FICO score distribution 23

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 24-26

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 27-29

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 30

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 31-32

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae breakdown (FICO, LTV, DTI) 33-35

Prepayments 

Aggregate 36

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 37-38

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 39

Multifamily 40

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 41

Dealer net positions, repo volume 42

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 43

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 44

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 45

Foreign ownership of MBS 46-47

Fed Ownership of MBS 48
HIGHLIGHTS

What will happen to cash-out refinances as rates rise?

One direct and expected result of rising rates is the decline in refinances whose purpose is to reduce the 

monthly payment. As the volume of these “rate refinances” goes down, the share of cash-out refinances 

increases even if the volume doesn’t. In general, when rates are low, the primary goal of refinancing is to reduce 

the monthly payment. Cash-out share tends to be low during such periods. But when rates are high, borrowers 

have no incentive to refinance for rate reasons. Those who still do tend to be driven more by their desire to 

cash-out, giving the cash-out share a boost. 

A closer look at the data confirms this in indeed happening right now. The chart below shows that the share of 

monthly issuances backed by cash-out refinances for FHA, VA and Freddie Mac has increased, as rate refis have 

dwindled. But some of the increase in the cash-out share is also driven by an increase in the absolute volume of 

cash-outs (table) as house prices have appreciated. According to Freddie Mac’s latest quarterly refinance 

report, the median appreciation of Freddie Mac refinanced properties touched 16 percent in Q4 2017, the 

highest level since 2008.

Cash-out share of issuances (%) Cash-out volume ($ billions)

Will cash-out activity continue to climb? There will always be cash-out activity, but borrowers with ultra-low 

rate mortgages are unlikely to give those up by doing a cash-out refinance at a higher rate. Instead they will find 

home equity loans much cheaper. We expect this to act as a limiting factor for the growth of cash out volumes 

even though the cash-out share is likely to increase as rate refi’s dwindle further. 

Highlights this month:

• While Treasury and Ginnie Mae MBS yields both declined slightly in March 2018, current coupon Ginnie

Mae MBS spreads relative to Treasuries stayed relatively stable (pages 5 and 6).

• First lien originations in 2017 were down 14 percent year-over-year (page 8).

• The FICO scores for both Ginnie Mae bank and nonbank originators declined in February, with the banks 

dropping more than the nonbanks (page 34).

• Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance increased sharply to $1.5 billion in February 2018, the highest level 

in recent history (page 40).

• While Q4, 2017 MBS holdings of banks and thrifts were fairly constant, these entities increased their 

holdings of Ginnie Mae pass-throughs (page 46). 

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

FHA VA Freddie Mac

FHA VA

Freddie 

Mac

2013 $8.1 $14.0 $67.2 

2014 $7.2 $14.6 $41.6 

2015 $14.8 $23.4 $72.2 

2016 $22.3 $33.0 $83.7 

2017 $30.0 $38.3 $75.1 
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of March 2018.

US MBS comprise 28 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index-- slightly less than either the US Treasury share 

(37%) or the US Credit share (31%). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS comprises the largest percent of US MBS (10%), while 

Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie Mac 30-year MBS comprise 8 percent and 6 percent of the market, 

respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the balance (4%) of the US MBS share. US securities 

are the largest single contributor to the Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 38 percent of the global total. US 

MBS comprises 11 percent of the global aggregate. 

37%

2%

30%

8%

10%

6%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

6%

25%

11%

1%

3%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2%

3% 1%

38%

33%

21%

1%

0.04% 2%

0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

4
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y Bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2018.

US Treasury interest rates, as measured by the 10-year note, continue to be the highest in the developed world. The 

US 10-year Treasury note dipped slightly to 2.74 percent this month. Interest rates in the UK, Germany, Italy and 

Japan all declined slightly to 1.35, 0.50, 1.79, and 0.04 percent, respectively. If Treasury notes are hedged into 

foreign currencies, 10-year US Treasury yields are 30 basis points (bps) in JPY, and -3 bps in EUR. The hedged yield 

difference between the 10-year Treasuries and JGBs is stayed constant at 26 bps, while the hedged yield difference 

between the 10-year Treasuries and Bunds narrowed to -53 bps.

Yield(%)Yield(%)

5
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2018.

The nominal yield spread on current coupon GNMA II and GNMA I securities decreased slightly in March 

2018. Current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury counterparts (relative to the average of 5-

and 10-year Treasury yields) by 66 and 67 bps on G2SF and GNSF, respectively, which is relatively consistent 

with February levels.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

6
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2018.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus many 

sovereign alternatives. The figures show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into Japanese yen 

yield more than the JGB 5/10 blend by 90 and 91 bps, respectively. 

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

7
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2018.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus sovereign 

alternatives. The figures show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into euros yield more than the 

average of the German 5/10 blend by 34 and 35 bps, respectively. These latest spreads represent a 7-8 basis 

point widening from February levels.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

8
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of March 2018.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most securities with the same or longer durations. The only 

security class with significantly more yield is the US high yield index, where interest rate risk does not fully 

capture the volatility of the high yield asset class. Investors are unable to match the yield on Ginnie Mae 

securities, while preserving the full government guarantee, even if they extend their duration significantly.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.7 2.56

US 10y 8.5 2.74

GNMA II 3% 6.8 3.23

GNMA II 3.5% 5.9 3.33

JPY 5y 5.0 -0.11

JPY 10y 9.9 0.05

GER 5y 5.0 -0.11

GER 10y 9.6 0.49

ITA 5y 4.8 0.64

ITA 10y 8.8 1.78

US credit 7.2 3.68

US credit >= A 7.5 3.56

US HY 4.1 6.19

Pan-Euro Corp 5.8 1.20

Pan-Euro HY 3.9 3.31

US 5y

US 10y

G2 3.0%

G2 3.5%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield per duration

9
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.02 0.04 0.23 0.08 0.31 0.32

3 year 0.08 0.04 0.20 0.06 0.44 0.30

5 year 0.12 0.09 0.26 0.30 0.42 0.51

10 year 0.29 0.23 0.46 0.42 0.71 0.85

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.07 -0.06 0.13 0.15 0.22 0.39

3 year 0.03 -0.01 0.15 0.11 0.39 0.36

5 year 0.10 0.06 0.23 0.34 0.39 0.54

10 year 0.26 0.21 0.43 0.40 0.69 0.84

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.60 0.76 0.85 0.51 0.67 0.68

3 year 0.53 0.91 1.08 1.03 1.62 1.40

5 year 0.69 0.93 1.18 1.05 1.52 1.28

10 year 0.76 1.19 1.75 1.40 3.02 3.54

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.12 -0.08 0.15 0.29 0.32 0.57

3 year 0.06 -0.01 0.14 0.11 0.24 0.25

5 year 0.14 0.07 0.19 0.32 0.26 0.42

10 year 0.34 0.17 0.25 0.29 0.23 0.24

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of March 2018.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade has been slightly higher than the US Treasury 

index, but lower than many alternatives, including the US Investment-Grade Corporate and US and European 

High Yield indices. However, the standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has 

the least price volatility. The result: the excess return per unit of risk for the mortgage market is the highest of any 

market over the past decade, as measured by the Sharpe Ratio.

10
State of the US Housing Market

6.7%

6.6%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

CoreLogic HPI year-over-year Zillow HPI year-over-year

Sources: CoreLogic, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

1.24%

1.08%

4.78%

2.43%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4Q052Q064Q062Q074Q072Q084Q082Q094Q092Q104Q102Q114Q112Q124Q122Q134Q132Q144Q142Q154Q152Q164Q162Q174Q17

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q4 2017.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquencies for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans, and VA loans edged up in the fourth quarter of 

2017, partly due to seasonal factors, but mostly due to the impact of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. The 

delinquency rates for FHA and VA went up to 4.78 percent and 2.43 percent, respectively, while delinquency 

rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went up to 1.24 and 1.08 percent, respectively. GSE delinquencies remain 

high relative to 2005-2007, while FHA and VA delinquencies (which are higher than their GSE counterparts) are 

at levels lower than 2005-2007. Home price changes turned positive in 2012, and continue to increase 

approximately 6.6-6.7 percent per year, as measured by both CoreLogic and Zillow.

11
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: CoreLogic and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of January 2018. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when HPI 

reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to the lowest 

level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 01/2018, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, the nominal home prices have improved by 51.3 percent since the trough, and have exceeded their precrisis peak valuation. However, the picture is very different for different states, with many states well in excess of 

the prior peak, while Nevada is 28.2 percent below peak levels and Connecticut is 22.9 percent below peak levels.

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Below Peak

National 93.7% -33.2% 51.3% 6.6% -1.1%

Alabama 45.7% -19.9% 23.3% 5.1% 1.2%

Alaska 68.9% -9.4% 16.7% 0.7% -5.4%

Arizona 121.5% -50.5% 70.6% 6.4% 18.4%

Arkansas 39.6% -7.6% 15.7% 4.0% -6.5%

California 149.0% -42.4% 78.6% 8.3% -2.7%

Colorado 40.4% -13.7% 68.0% 8.3% -31.0%

Connecticut 79.5% -24.9% 8.3% 1.7% 22.9%

Delaware 90.3% -23.8% 17.3% 0.7% 11.8%

District of Columbia 150.5% -10.4% 38.2% 1.5% -19.3%

Florida 149.2% -49.6% 66.4% 5.6% 19.3%

Georgia 40.5% -30.7% 55.1% 6.5% -6.8%

Hawaii 152.0% -20.9% 45.0% 4.1% -12.9%

Idaho 85.4% -40.8% 74.7% 10.3% -3.3%

Illinois 59.9% -32.5% 30.5% 3.7% 13.6%

Indiana 24.4% -16.4% 29.4% 5.8% -7.5%

Iowa 25.5% -4.9% 20.5% 3.7% -12.7%

Kansas 33.2% -14.0% 27.3% 5.1% -8.6%

Kentucky 27.0% -8.9% 23.4% 5.6% -11.0%

Louisiana 58.8% -7.5% 25.7% 6.0% -14.1%

Maine 92.2% -19.3% 33.6% 8.1% -6.8%

Maryland 137.7% -31.1% 20.8% 3.4% 20.1%

Massachusetts 81.7% -21.2% 40.5% 6.1% -9.7%

Michigan 26.2% -43.2% 76.0% 7.3% -0.1%

Minnesota 69.7% -28.1% 43.3% 6.0% -2.9%

Mississippi 34.2% -18.3% 19.6% 3.3% 2.4%

Missouri 46.2% -22.3% 30.6% 4.8% -1.5%

Montana 80.0% -16.6% 41.4% 8.4% -15.1%

Nebraska 25.3% -5.3% 27.0% 5.4% -16.9%

Nevada 129.0% -59.9% 94.4% 11.3% 28.2%

New Hampshire 82.6% -23.8% 30.3% 5.0% 0.7%

New Jersey 109.6% -26.4% 15.2% 2.2% 17.9%

New Mexico 64.3% -26.4% 20.4% 4.3% 12.9%

New York 101.9% -13.9% 31.9% 5.7% -12.0%

North Carolina 39.8% -14.6% 29.0% 5.5% -9.2%

North Dakota 50.5% -1.9% 50.2% 5.5% -32.1%

Ohio 22.2% -20.4% 32.4% 6.2% -5.2%

Oklahoma 35.8% -3.1% 15.0% 2.0% -10.3%

Oregon 87.5% -29.3% 68.1% 6.8% -15.9%

Pennsylvania 71.7% -12.9% 16.0% 3.5% -1.0%

Rhode Island 131.0% -34.2% 33.9% 8.4% 13.4%

South Carolina 61.5% -22.2% 34.2% 5.5% -4.3%

South Dakota 37.3% -3.4% 39.1% 9.2% -25.6%

Tennessee 41.3% -13.2% 38.1% 6.5% -16.6%

Texas 39.4% -13.2% 48.9% 5.6% -22.7%

Utah 64.8% -31.7% 65.8% 10.8% -11.7%

Vermont 81.6% -9.1% 15.3% 4.1% -4.4%

Virginia 135.1% -30.6% 29.7% 2.6% 11.0%

Washington 90.2% -28.1% 70.4% 12.1% -18.4%

West Virginia 81.1% -26.9% 24.1% 2.3% 10.1%

Wisconsin 48.6% -17.2% 26.7% 5.8% -4.7%

Wyoming 75.5% -14.5% 25.7% 1.7% -6.8%

12
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State Ginnie Mae Share Ginnie Mae Average

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan 

Size (Thousands)

Ginnie Mae 

Share

Ginnie Mae Average 

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan

Size (Thousands)

National 34.2% 210.8 226.6 32.3% 178.4 208.4

Alabama 45.9% 158.2 179.6 47.2% 142.0 168.7

Alaska 53.5% 279.1 242.1 52.2% 256.3 228.4

Arizona 35.0% 204.7 209.7 34.7% 176.2 191.1

Arkansas 44.6% 140.2 165.5 46.9% 122.8 153.1

California 28.4% 338.7 321.9 22.3% 285.2 292.5

Colorado 33.5% 274.3 263.8 30.5% 228.8 237.0

Connecticut 32.4% 214.0 225.5 29.9% 203.6 218.4

Delaware 39.9% 211.1 220.2 37.6% 198.5 208.0

District of Columbia 18.0% 397.6 352.0 17.6% 327.1 333.2

Florida 39.4% 206.0 201.6 36.6% 173.5 184.8

Georgia 42.0% 180.1 203.6 41.0% 154.8 186.4

Hawaii 39.8% 487.4 375.7 32.0% 419.1 345.9

Idaho 35.2% 190.3 194.8 35.2% 162.8 175.7

Illinois 26.8% 175.7 196.8 25.3% 155.6 183.4

Indiana 40.1% 138.9 154.4 39.7% 122.0 141.7

Iowa 27.1% 143.4 161.3 27.0% 125.4 149.0

Kansas 37.4% 152.6 173.5 37.1% 132.9 157.2

Kentucky 41.3% 147.2 164.7 40.2% 133.2 150.4

Louisiana 44.0% 168.0 190.5 43.8% 150.9 177.5

Maine 36.5% 181.8 196.1 33.2% 166.8 180.9

Maryland 44.8% 279.7 261.3 40.1% 252.7 247.3

Massachusetts 24.4% 285.9 277.1 19.8% 253.7 255.5

Michigan 26.6% 143.2 166.8 26.8% 123.6 151.7

Minnesota 26.3% 193.7 205.6 25.7% 170.2 190.5

Mississippi 51.1% 150.1 168.8 52.5% 132.2 158.0

Missouri 36.9% 149.3 170.0 36.6% 132.7 156.3

Montana 32.3% 210.1 212.8 31.8% 183.0 192.1

Nebraska 32.3% 159.0 168.2 35.5% 135.4 153.9

Nevada 40.0% 232.6 223.1 40.5% 197.0 198.6

New Hampshire 32.7% 227.1 220.6 30.3% 208.9 202.6

New Jersey 30.6% 247.4 262.0 28.3% 232.8 249.1

New Mexico 44.4% 176.0 184.9 44.2% 156.6 172.9

New York 27.0% 240.3 265.1 26.6% 205.4 242.9

North Carolina 35.5% 176.5 198.4 36.1% 155.1 184.6

North Dakota 29.7% 208.2 203.8 27.2% 180.7 185.8

Ohio 37.2% 140.0 155.5 37.8% 125.2 144.3

Oklahoma 47.9% 150.5 168.7 50.3% 131.5 157.1

Oregon 28.1% 246.8 250.8 25.7% 210.0 221.5

Pennsylvania 34.6% 165.9 191.3 34.0% 152.1 180.8

Rhode Island 38.4% 220.2 215.8 34.3% 200.7 203.3

South Carolina 40.8% 180.2 190.2 39.3% 158.4 177.4

South Dakota 37.5% 172.8 181.7 37.1% 155.0 165.4

Tennessee 41.6% 176.9 196.3 43.0% 150.4 178.4

Texas 35.7% 192.1 210.8 38.4% 153.5 191.4

Utah 31.4% 230.6 241.9 31.9% 201.3 218.7

Vermont 23.4% 191.9 194.0 20.0% 181.6 182.6

Virginia 45.6% 268.5 257.6 42.0% 243.4 244.4

Washington 32.2% 274.5 276.0 30.4% 232.7 243.9

West Virginia 48.7% 152.8 154.2 46.1% 139.0 146.8

Wisconsin 24.0% 163.3 173.7 21.7% 146.9 161.0

Wyoming 42.4% 209.0 207.9 41.7% 193.5 195.4

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae share are based on loan balance as of January 2018.

Ginnie Mae loans constitute 32.3 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance, 34.2 percent of the 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstandings (as measured by loan balance) as low as 17.6 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 52.5 

percent in Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

13
State of the US Housing Market

$10.6

$15.2

$25.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt, household mortgages Household equity Total Value

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Data as of Q4 2017.

$0.5

$0.6

$6.4

$3.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Second Liens Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Inside Mortgage Finance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, and credit unions. Data as of Q4 2017.

The Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report has consistently indicated an increasing total value of the housing 

market driven by growing household equity since 2012, and 2017 Q4 was no different. While total debt and 

mortgages was stable at $10.6 trillion, household equity reached a new high of $15.2 trillion, bringing the total 

value of the housing market to $25.8 trillion, surpassing the pre-crisis peak of $23.9 trillion in 2006. Agency MBS 

make up 60.1 percent of the total mortgage market, private-label securities make up 4.5 percent, and 

unsecuritized first liens at the GSEs, commercial banks, savings institutions, and credit unions make up 30.1 

percent. Second liens comprise the remaining 5.4 percent of the total.

14
State of the US Housing Market

As of February 2018, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $6.41 trillion and were 43.8 percent 

Fannie Mae, 27.3 percent Freddie Mac, and 28.9 percent Ginnie Mae. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, VA has been growing very rapidly--comprising 33.3 percent of total 

Ginnie Mae outstandings.

$2.81

$1.75

$1.85

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Feb-01

Aug-01

Feb-02

Aug-02

Feb-03

Aug-03

Feb-04

Aug-04

Feb-05

Aug-05

Feb-06

Aug-06

Feb-07

Aug-07

Feb-08

Aug-08

Feb-09

Aug-09

Feb-10

Aug-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Feb-12

Aug-12

Feb-13

Aug-13

Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Aug-17

Feb-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

$1.1

$0.6

$0.1

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

Feb-01

Aug-01

Feb-02

Aug-02

Feb-03

Aug-03

Feb-04

Aug-04

Feb-05

Aug-05

Feb-06

Aug-06

Feb-07

Aug-07

Feb-08

Aug-08

Feb-09

Aug-09

Feb-10

Aug-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Feb-12

Aug-12

Feb-13

Aug-13

Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Aug-17

Feb-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of February 2018.

15
State of the US Housing Market

$0.83

$0.44

$0.02

$0.52

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2017.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

First Lien Origination Share

After a record high origination year in 2016 ($2.1 trillion), the first lien originations totaled $1.8 trillion in 2017, 

down 14 percent from 2016, mostly due to elevated interest rates. The portfolio originations share was 29 percent, 

the GSE share was 46 percent, and the FHA/VA share was 24 percent, all relatively consistent with 2016 shares. 

Origination of private-label securities was under 1 percent in both years.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2017. 

28.9%

0.8%

24.4%

45.8%

16
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total Agency

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 YTD $35.2 $29.1 $2.8 $67.1

2018 % Change YOY -15.9% -4.2% -19.1% -11.4%

2018 Ann. $211.4 $174.3 $16.6 $402.3

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 YTD $87.7 $42.9 $130.6 $67.1 $197.6

2018 % Change YOY -5.9% -34.8% -17.9% -11.4% -15.8%

2018 Ann. $525.9 $257.5 $783.4 $402.3 $1,185.7

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of February 2018.

Agency gross issuance totaled $197.6 billion in the first two months of 2018, down by 15.8 percent compared to 

the same time period in 2017. Ginnie Mae gross issuance was down by 11.4 percent and GSE gross issuance was 

down by 17.9 percent. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA is down by 15.9 percent and VA origination is down by 

4.2 percent. The decline in origination volume is the result of higher interest rates.

17
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 YTD $3.5 $11.0 $0.4 $14.9

2018 %Change YOY -29.3% -21.8% -36.3% -24.2%

2018 Ann. $21.3 $65.8 $2.5 $89.6

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $57.5 $11.6 $69.1 $87.9 $157.0

2014 $0.5 $30.0 $30.5 $61.6 $92.1

2015 $10.2 $65.0 $75.1 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $68.6 $66.8 $135.5 $125.3 $260.8

2017 $90.2 $78.2 $168.5 $131.3 $299.7

2018 YTD $20.4 $2.6 $23.0 $14.9 $38.3

2018 %Change YOY 52.0% -85.3% -26.1% -24.2% -25.4%

2018Ann. $122.4 $15.7 $138.1 $61.3 $227.7

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom) 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of February 2018.

Agency net issuance totaled $38.3 billion in in the first two months of 2018, down 25.4 percent compared to 2017. 

Ginnie Mae net issuance was $14.9 billion, comprising 40.0 percent of total agency net issuance. Note that Ginnie 

Mae net issuance is down 24.2 percent compared to the first two months of 2017. Ginnie Mae net issuance in 2018 

is comprised of 73.4 percent VA issuance, 23.8 percent FHA issuance and 2.8 percent other issuance.

18
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of February 2018.

Agency gross issuance totaled $93.7 billion in February 2018, down slightly from $104.0 billion of issuance in 

January 2018. Since March 2017, monthly agency gross issuance has been lower than in the same period of the 

previous year, reflecting higher mortgage rates. 

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Jan-15 $36.8 $22.9 $27.5 -$1.2 $0.8 $2.5

Feb-15 $35.4 $29.9 $23.9 $1.5 $10.1 $2.9

Mar-15 $44.8 $26.0 $30.7 $3.1 $1.1 $0.6

Apr-15 $49.3 $33.8 $40.6 -$1.2 $3.8 $4.3

May-15 $42.4 $33.2 $39.4 -$2.9 $6.6 $5.8

Jun-15 $44.6 $34.4 $40.5 $0.8 $8.3 $9.1

Jul-15 $46.0 $39.2 $45.6 $1.0 $12.3 $13.3

Aug-15 $39.4 $27.6 $43.4 -$2.2 $3.1 $14.9

Sep-15 $45.3 $30.4 $39.4 $7.6 $7.9 $12.7

Oct-15 $41.5 $28.4 $39.2 $4.8 $6.4 $12.4

Nov-15 $28.8 $23.3 $35.8 -$8.1 $1.3 $10.6

Dec-15 $39.7 $22.8 $30.3 $7.1 $3.2 $8.2

Jan-16 $35.6 $22.5 $32.5 -$0.6 $1.0 $7.3

Feb-16 $32.4 $21.2 $30.5 $2.4 $3.1 $8.4

Mar-16 $39.7 $27.5 $32.9 $7.9 $8.2 $9.6

Apr-16 $43.8 $26.2 $40.1 $0.8 -$0.2 $8.8

May-16 $44.2 $29.9 $41.6 $2.4 $4.4 $11.4

Jun-16 $46.7 $30.1 $43.9 $2.7 $3.0 $11.9

Jul-16 $49.8 $35.3 $46.1 $2.3 $6.3 $10.8

Aug-16 $54.9 $37.9 $46.7 $10.4 $11.0 $13.8

Sep-16 $65.8 $44.0 $52.5 $8.7 $9.0 $12.5

Oct-16 $66.0 $35.9 $47.4 $11.8 $2.7 $9.3

Nov-16 $48.8 $40.2 $47.2 -$3.5 $7.9 $10.3

Dec-16 $72.7 $40.5 $46.8 $23.3 $10.4 $10.8

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $10.3 $10.7 $10.3

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $3.1 $6.5 $9.2

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $10.3 $6.2 $9.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $4.8 $0.4 $11.7

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $7.6 $2.7 $13.1

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $8.3 $2.4 $13.2

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $5.8 $3.5 $12.1

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $12.0 $6.7 $15.6

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $7.4 $3.8 $10.5

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $6.4 $12.5 $10.7

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $4.6 $13.6 $8.2

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $9.6 $8.2 $6.8

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $12.4 $0.3 $7.8

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $8.0 $2.3 $7.1

Monthly Agency Issuance

19
US Agency Market, Originations

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Aug-04

Feb-05

Aug-05

Feb-06

Aug-06

Feb-07

Aug-07

Feb-08

Aug-08

Feb-09

Aug-09

Feb-10

Aug-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Feb-12

Aug-12

Feb-13

Aug-13

Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Aug-17

Feb-18

Mortgage Rate

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance

Freddie Mac (left) Fannie Mae (left) Ginnie Mae (left) Mortgage rate (right)

30.3%

47.6%

3.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of February 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. Data as of February 2018.

The Ginnie Mae refi share stood at 35 percent in February 2018, below the 47 and 43 percent shares for Fannie 

Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively. Within Ginnie Mae, VA had the highest refi share at 47.6 percent in February 

2018, followed by FHA’s 30.3 percent refi share. 

20
Credit Box

37.9%

42.3%

70.4%

52.1%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

First time homebuyers are important to the Ginnie Mae market, comprising 70 percent of purchase originations, 

compared to Fannie and Freddie’s respective 42 percent and 38 percent share of the first-time homebuyer 

market. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated in February 2018, the average first-time 

homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan and have a lower credit score, 

a much higher LTV and a similar DTI, thus requiring a higher interest rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 228,448 258,852 240,558 260,745 202,013 246,967 216,693 255,851 

Credit Score 737.3 755.3 740.0 753.9 680.7 700.6 708.4 738.8

LTV (%) 87.5 78.9 86.4 79.2 96.9 95.6 92.2 83.9

DTI (%) 36.3 36.6 35.3 36.1 41.2 42.2 38.7 38.1

Loan Rate (%) 4.26 4.09 4.19 4.09 4.24 4.11 4.24 4.10

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of February 2018.

21
Credit Box

76.6%

53.8%

80.3%

70.4%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Purchase Only Loans Breakdown by Source

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and 

the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 77 percent of FHA loans, 54 percent of VA loans and 80 percent of other 

loans represent financing for first time home buyers. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated 

in February 2018, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a 

smaller loan and have a lower credit score, and similar LTVs and DTIs, thus requiring a higher interest rate.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 199,866 219,014 238,068 290,216 143,478 155,892 202,013 246,967 

Credit Score 672.6 676.9 697.9 726.4 695.3 698.8 680.7 700.6

LTV (%) 95.5 94.2 99.8 96.6 99.4 99.6 96.9 95.6

DTI (%) 42.5 43.6 40.2 41.5 35.2 35.8 41.2 42.2

Loan Rate (%) 4.32 4.27 4.07 3.93 4.10 4.19 4.24 4.11

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

22
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2016.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 502 524 583 676 772 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

308 569 613 680 751 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (676) is lower than the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (680).

23
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 225,036 644 680 731 775 797 725 

Fannie 88,356 683 717 757 786 801 748 

Freddie 50,239 686 719 758 787 801 750 

Ginnie 86,441 623 646 678 724 770 687 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 165,047 645 683 727 771 796 723 

Fannie 82,649 664 700 741 778 799 736 

Freddie 41,743 669 702 744 779 799 738 

Ginnie 40,655 613 644 680 723 767 683 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 390,083 644 681 729 774 797 724 

Fannie 171,005 672 708 750 783 800 742 

Freddie 91,982 679 711 752 784 801 745 

Ginnie 127,096 621 646 679 723 769 686 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 86,441 623 646 678 724 770 687 

FHA 53,085 620 641 668 703 742 674 

VA 24,948 631 662 710 764 793 711 

Other 8,408 640 659 692 732 766 696 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 40,655 613 644 680 723 767 683 

FHA 20,617 602 632 664 698 737 666 

VA 19,794 629 660 699 746 782 701 

Other 244 614 656 695 745 771 693 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 127,096 621 646 679 723 769 686 

FHA 73,702 614 639 667 702 740 671 

VA 44,742 630 660 704 756 789 707 

Other 8,652 640 659 692 732 766 696 

February 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of February 2018.

In February 2018, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 679 versus 750 for Fannie and 752 for Freddie. Note that 

the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 621 for Ginnie Mae, versus 672 for Fannie and 679 for Freddie. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 667, VA loans have a median FICO score of 704 and 

other loans have a median FICO score of 692.

24
February 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 225,341 72.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 87.4 

Fannie 88,441 64.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 97.0 82.1 

Freddie 50,286 63.0 75.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 81.2 

Ginnie 86,614 93.0 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.5 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 168,314 45.0 60.0 75.0 82.1 94.2 71.2 

Fannie 82,659 41.0 56.0 70.0 79.0 80.0 65.5 

Freddie 41,744 42.0 57.0 70.0 79.0 80.0 66.1 

Ginnie 43,911 68.9 81.7 87.0 97.9 100.0 86.7 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 393,655 55.0 72.0 80.0 95.9 98.0 80.5 

Fannie 171,100 49.0 65.0 79.0 87.0 95.0 74.1 

Freddie 92,030 50.0 66.0 80.0 85.0 95.0 74.3 

Ginnie 130,525 81.1 90.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.2 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 86,614 93.0 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.5 

FHA 53,181 92.9 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.2 

VA 24,986 91.4 100.0 100.0 102.2 103.3 98.3 

Other 8,447 95.6 99.2 101.0 101.0 102.0 99.5 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 43,911 68.9 81.7 87.0 97.9 100.0 86.7 

FHA 21,626 68.0 80.6 86.5 90.2 98.1 83.8 

VA 21,958 69.5 83.6 93.7 100.0 102.2 89.4 

Other 327 78.8 88.7 97.2 101.5 103.3 93.3 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 130,525 81.1 90.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.2 

FHA 74,807 81.6 88.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 91.9 

VA 46,944 78.2 90.8 100.0 100.0 103.0 94.2 

Other 8,774 94.8 99.2 101.0 101.0 102.0 99.2 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of February 2018.

In February 2018, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, 80 percent for Fannie Mae, 

and 79 percent for Freddie Mac. The 10th percentile was 81.1 percent for Ginnie Mae, 49 percent for Fannie Mae, 

and 50 percent for Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 100.0 for VA and 

101.0 for other programs. 

25
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 225,004 24.0 31.3 39.0 45.2 49.8 38.1 

Fannie 88,437 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 48.0 36.3 

Freddie 50,285 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.6 

Ginnie 86,282 28.5 35.1 42.2 48.6 53.8 41.5 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 153,992 22.0 30.0 38.0 45.0 49.0 36.8 

Fannie 81,672 22.0 29.0 37.0 44.0 48.0 36.1 

Freddie 41,122 21.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 47.0 35.2 

Ginnie 31,198 26.4 33.8 41.9 48.6 53.6 40.8 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 378,996 23.4 31.0 39.0 45.0 49.0 37.6 

Fannie 170,109 22.0 29.0 38.0 44.0 48.0 36.2 

Freddie 91,407 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.4 

Ginnie 117,480 27.9 34.9 42.1 48.6 53.8 41.3 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 86,282 28.5 35.1 42.2 48.6 53.8 41.5 

FHA 53,160 29.9 36.8 43.8 49.8 54.4 42.8 

VA 24,793 26.9 34.0 41.3 48.1 53.6 40.8 

Other 8,329 26.1 31.0 36.2 40.3 43.1 35.3 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 31,198 26.4 33.8 41.9 48.6 53.6 40.8 

FHA 16,217 28.0 35.3 43.2 49.4 54.0 41.8 

VA 14,741 25.3 32.4 40.5 47.6 52.8 39.7 

Other 240 18.3 24.5 33.4 40.3 46.4 32.9 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 117,480 27.9 34.9 42.1 48.6 53.8 41.3 

FHA 69,377 29.4 36.5 43.7 49.7 54.3 42.5 

VA 39,534 26.3 33.4 41.0 47.9 53.3 40.4 

Other 8,569 25.8 30.9 36.2 40.3 43.2 35.3 

February 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of February 2018.

In February 2018, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 42.1 percent, considerably higher than the 

37-38 percent median DTIs for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 53.8 percent, 

also much higher than the 47-48 percent DTIs for the GSEs. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI 

ratio was 43.7 percent, versus 41.0 percent for VA and 36.2 percent for other lending programs. 

26
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

750

752

679

729

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

The median FICO score for all agency MBS originated in February now stands at 729, slightly higher than last 

month. The figures clearly show that the median FICO score for Ginnie Mae borrowers has always been 

considerably lower than for GSE borrowers. The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrowers is wider 

in purchase loans than in refi loans.

27
Credit Box: Historical

79

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

LTV Ratio for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 75-80 

percent LTVs for the GSEs. Through time, both Ginnie Mae and GSE refinances have LTVs about 10 points 

lower than their purchase counterparts. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of February 

2018.

80.0

28
Credit Box: Historical

37.0

38.0

42.1

39.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

DTI Ratio for Refinance Loans 

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Debt-to-income Ratio

DTI Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of February 2018.

Median debt-to-income ratios on Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher 

than the GSEs. DTIs have been inching up over the past year for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with the 

movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae loans.

29
Non-bank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of February 2018.

The nonbank origination share has increased for all three agencies since 2013. In February 2018, this trend 

was interrupted, with Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share declining to 76.4 percent. Nonbank originator shares for 

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae both remained near the historic highs reached in November 2017, standing at 

52.3 and 49.6 percent, respectively. For Ginnie Mae, the non-bank refi share was considerably higher than the 

non-bank purchase share. The differences were more modest for the GSEs.

59%

50%

52%

76%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

30
Ginnie Mae Non-bank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of February 2018.

In February 2018, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share declined to 76 percent. Nonbank originator shares for FHA, 

VA, and Other issuance all declined to 81, 70, and 77 percent, respectively. The nonbank originator share is 

higher for refinance loans than for purchase loans across all channels.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

81%

77%

76%

70%

31
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of February 2018. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of February 2018. 

730

747

716

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018. 

670

690

710

730

750

770

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

670

690

710

730

750

770

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. The median GSE and the median Ginnie Mae 

FICO scores for loans originated by nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, both bank 

and nonbank FICOs have declined since 2014 with a further relaxation in FICOs since early 2017. In contrast, within 

the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations have increased since 2014 while nonbank FICOs have 

declined. This largely reflects the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks.

32
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTV ratios for loans originated by nonbanks are similar to their bank counterparts, while the median DTIs 

for nonbank loans are higher, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in this as well as in the FICO 

dimension. Note that since early 2017, there has been a measurable increase in DTIs. This is true for both bank and 

non-bank originations.

33
670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of February 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of February 2018

The FICO scores for both Ginnie Mae bank and nonbank originators declined in February, with the banks 

dropping more than the nonbanks. The spread in the FICO scores between banks and non-banks narrowed 

slightly, but remains close to their widest level since the data became available in 2013. The gap between banks 

and non-banks is very apparent in all programs backing Ginnie Mae securities: FHA, VA, and Other.

655

660

665

670

675

680

685

690

695

700

705

710

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

660

665

670

675

680

685

690

695

700

705

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of February 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of February 2018

34
90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median LTV VA Bank Median LTV

VA Nonbank Median LTV

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of February 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of February 2018.

An analysis of the loans backing Ginnie Mae origination indicates that there are virtually no difference in 

median LTV ratios between bank originated loans and non-bank originated loans. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae LTV: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Ginnie Mae FHA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median LTV FHA Bank Median LTV

FHA Nonbank Median LTV

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Ginnie Mae Other LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median LTV Other Bank Median LTV

Other Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of February 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of February 2018

35
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of February 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of February 2018

An analysis of the borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former are 

more conservative. The DTIs for FHA and VA loans experienced notable increases since early 2017 for both 

bank and nonbank originations, while the Other originations’ DTIs stayed relatively flat. 

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of February 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of February 2018

36
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Jun-14 Mar-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Jun-17 Mar-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

11%

12%

15%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae securities were lower than on GSE securities from 2011 through mid-2013, but have 

been higher since. These differences hold across all coupon buckets. The differences are especially pronounced on 

more recent production. These increased Ginnie speeds reflect the growing share of VA loans, which prepay at faster 

speeds than either FHA or GSE loans. This also reflects the fact that FHA streamlined refinances apply to a wide range 

of borrowers and unlike GSE streamlined refinances, requires no credit report and no appraisal. Some of the upfront 

mortgage insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. Moreover, both FHA and VA permit 

refinancing of existing mortgages after 6 months, while the GSEs do not allow refinancing for a year. With the 

increase in interest rates since November 2016, the prepayment speeds for all agencies have slowed down 

considerably. Over the past year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economic to refinance, the 

muted month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day count and changes in mortgage rates. 

With mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we would expect prepayment speeds in the coming months to be more 

muted than the same month in 2017.

13%

12%

10%

9%

37
Prepayments

8.0%

8.6%

12.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2013 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2012 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

The 2013 Ginnie II 3.0s are prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts. 2012 Ginnie II 3.5s have been 

faster since mid-2013. The differences accelerated in 2015—potentially due to the FHA mortgage insurance 

premium (MIP) cut. In January 2015 FHA lowered its MIPs from 135 basis points per annum to 85 basis points 

per annum; this gives 2012 and 2013 FHA mortgages taken out with MIPs of 125-135 bps a 40-50 basis point 

rate incentive that conventional mortgages do not have. GSE guarantee fees have gone up over that same period, 

creating a disincentive for conventional loans. Moreover, recent originations are more heavily VA loans, which 

are more prepayment responsive than either FHA or Conventional loans. After a sharp mortgage rate rise in 

November 2016, the prepayment speeds of Ginnie and Conventional loans both fell dramatically. Over the past 

year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economic to refinance, the muted month to month 

variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With 

mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we would expect prepayment speeds in the coming months to be more 

muted than the same month in 2017.

13%

10%

9%

38
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

The 2011 Ginnie II 4.0s and 4.5s have been prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts since late 

2013. Faster VA mortgage prepays plus simplifications to the FHA streamlined programs in 2013 are likely 

contributors to the faster speeds. However, as mortgage rates rose sharply since November 2016, the speeds 

for all agencies have slowed down considerably. Over the past year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe 

finding it non-economic to refinance, the muted month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, 

changes in day count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we 

would expect prepayment speeds in the coming months to be more muted than the same month in 2017.

14%

12% 

11%

16%

14%

39
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$1.5

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$56 

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance increased sharply, with issuance of $1.5 billion in February. Outstanding 

securities totaled $56.4 billion in February.

40
Multifamily Market

$1.4

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$110.0

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

Feb-11

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volumes in February totaled $1.4 billion. Outstanding multifamily securities 

totaled $110.0 billion in February.

41
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

$230 

$572 

$36 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.63%

3.96%

0.41% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$Billions

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume in February 2018 has been slightly more robust than in the 2014-2017 period. 

Agency MBS turnover has also been higher in 2018 than in the 2014-2017 period; in the first two months of 

2018, average daily MBS turnover was 3.63 percent versus 3.36 percent in 2017. Both average daily mortgage 

and Treasury turnover are down dramatically from their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule 

relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

42
Market Conditions

$202.5

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$36.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

Dealer net positions in Agency MBS are now at the very lower end of the recent range, although gross 

positions are likely down more. The volume of repurchase activity is near its lowest level in 13 years. This 

reflects banks cutting back on lower margin businesses. 

43
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual 

Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2017.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (20 

percent), commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (11 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares 

are a fraction of what they once were. 

% of Total Agency 

Debt by Owner

44
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2017.

71.5%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2018.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, fewer agency notes and bonds are required to 

fund that activity, hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. For Q4 2017, the MBS share of total agency 

debt stood at 71.5 percent. Commercial banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $1.8 trillion 

in holdings as of the end of March 2018, $1.3 trillion of it was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Mar-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18Mar 7 Mar 14 Mar 21 Mar 28

Largest Domestic 

Banks 1,221.9 1,277.3 1,284.4 1,292.2 1,295.5 1,303.1 1,294.9 1,282.0 1,281.7 1,287.6 1,285.4 1,290.5

Small Domestic 

Banks 459.9 474.4 476.7 478.3 478.0 478.1 478.1 477.7 475.8 476.0 475.0 476.1

Foreign Related 

Banks 13.6 12.3 11.4 12.3 17.6 35.3 33.1 31.9 31.5 30.9 33.3 33.8

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1,695.4 1,764.0 1,772.5 1,782.8 1,791.1 1,816.5 1,806.1 1,791.6 1,789.0 1,794.5 1,793.7 1,800.4

45
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $321,906 $186,789 $120,912 $13,894 $311 17.50%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $241,474 $189,469 $46,265 $4,339 $4,401 13.10%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $105,529 $64,181 $29,813 $444 $11,091 5.70%

4 U S. Bancorp. $76,390 $33,528 $11,328 $31,533 $1 4.10%

5 Charles Schwab Bank $73,417 $43,800 $12,098 $17,519 $0 4.00%

6 Citigroup Inc. $66,380 $50,986 $1,616 $9,119 $4,659 3.60%

7 Capital One Financial Corporation $52,282 $17,114 $11,750 $22,210 $1,208 2.80%

8 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $51,583 $31,132 $2,048 $16,551 $1,852 2.80%

9 PNC Bank, National Association $42,869 $32,095 $4,934 $2,909 $2,931 2.30%

10 Branch Banking and Trust Company $39,544 $12,953 $6,883 $19,132 $576 2.10%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $33,314 $8,919 $5,970 $10,092 $8,334 1.80%

12 KeyBank National Association $24,501 $886 $1,124 $22,491 $0 1.30%

13 Morgan Stanley $23,783 $9,628 $7,440 $6,715 $0 1.30%

14 E*TRADE Bank $23,718 $13,568 $3,906 $6,244 $0 1.30%

15 SunTrust Bank $22,677 $11,754 $10,864 $0 $59 1.20%

16 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $21,336 $5,651 $7,542 $8,139 $3 1.20%

17 Regions Bank $18,448 $11,176 $4,992 $2,277 $3 1.00%

18 MUFG Union Bank, National Association $17,628 $5,845 $4,826 $6,264 $693 1.00%

19 Ally Bank $16,581 $9,127 $2,787 $2,347 $2,320 0.90%

20 The Northern Trust Company $15,728 $9,521 $2,787 $2,347 $2,320 0.90%

Total Top 20 $1,289,086 $748,121 $299,883 $204,566 $40,762 69.90%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2017

Out of the $1.8 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts, $1.4 trillion is in agency pass-through form: $1.0 

trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $367.7 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. There are another $414.0 billion in 

Agency CMOs. Non-agency holdings total $51.6 billion. Ginnie Mae pass-throughs have been the fastest growing 

sector in the past 2 years. Bank and thrift holdings of MBS are concentrated, with the top 20 holders accounting for 

70 percent of the total, and the top 5 holders accounting for 44 percent of the total.

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

1Q15 $1,579.21 $1,012.26 $767.71 $244.55 $455.47 $17.70 $93.78 

2Q15 $1,583.22 $1,032.26 $784.22 $248.05 $445.91 $16.47 $88.57 

3Q15 $1,608.44 $1,064.67 $805.05 $259.62 $447.01 $13.60 $83.16 

4Q15 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

1Q16 $1,660.58 $1,133.29 $833.25 $300.04 $448.63 $10.27 $68.39 

2Q 16 $1,684.33 $1,169.67 $867.64 $302.03 $440.25 $9.11 $65.29 

3Q16 $1,732.36 $1,227.52 $924.81 $302.71 $435.77 $7.90 $61.17 

4Q16 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01 

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

46
MBS Ownership

$914.4

$391.7

$522.7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official Foreign Private

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2017.

Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of Q4 2017.

14.4%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

Foreign investors hold 14.4 percent of agency MBS, up from the lows in 2013. For the month of December, this 

represents $914.4 billion in Agency MBS, $391.7 billion held by foreign official institutions and $522.7 billion 

held by foreign private investors. 

47
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2016 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of 

June 2016. Monthly data as of December 2017.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Taiwan, China and Japan; these three regions comprise around 70 

percent of all foreign holdings. Since June of 2016, we estimate Taiwan and Japan have expanded their holdings 

while China has contracted. In 2017, we estimate Japan and Taiwan have each added more than $23 billion in 

agency MBS.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17

Q3 

2016

Q4 

2016

Q1 

2017

Q2 

2017

Q3 

2017

Q4 

2017

Taiwan 207,164 208,352 204,005 212,707 227,236 229,030 234,234 1,188 -4,347 8,702 14,529 1,794 5,204

China 195,933 191,743 184,151 187,664 183,396 177,580 170,702 -4,190 -7,592 3,513 -4,268 -5,816 -6,878

Japan 197,101 222,116 220,644 214,838 227,721 244,163 241,067 25,015 -1,472 -5,806 12,883 16,442 -3,096

Ireland 47,635 48,307 47,065 46,178 45,353 46,393 51,525 672 -1,242 -887 -825 1,040 5,132

South Korea 50,323 50,072 49,000 44,349 46,577 47,581 45,467 -251 -1,072 -4,651 2,228 1,004 -2,114

Luxembourg 31,592 33,631 38,545 33,700 32,680 32,997 37,575 2,039 4,914 -4,845 -1,020 317 4,578

Bermuda 28,402 28,714 27,624 26,960 26,793 27,088 28,904 312 -1,090 -664 -167 295 1,816

Cayman Islands 31,076 30,686 30,186 29,014 28,763 29,014 28,374 -390 -500 -1,172 -251 251 -640

Switzerland 16,240 20,638 15,626 16,244 17,591 18,667 16,794 4,398 -5,012 618 1,347 1,076 -1,873

Netherlands 12,459 10,536 10,326 11,018 12,039 12,576 12,294 -1,923 -210 692 1,021 537 -282

Rest of World 148,860 139,634 137,432 121,753 124,977 121,455 125,922 -9,226 -2,202 -15,679 3,224 -3,522 4,467

Total 954,326 984,429 964,604 944,425 973,126 986,544 992,858 30,103 -19,825 -20,179 28,701 13,418 6,314

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17

Q3 

2016

Q4 

2016

Q1 

2017

Q2 

2017

Q3 

2017

Q4 

2017

Taiwan 206,954 208,142 203,807 212,540 227,077 228,885 234,100 1,188 -4,335 8,734 14,536 1,808 5,215

China 186,993 185,881 178,556 183,103 178,934 173,422 166,779 -1,112 -7,325 4,547 -4,169 -5,512 -6,643

Japan 185,034 213,615 212,661 208,162 221,447 238,602 235,884 28,581 -954 -4,499 13,285 17,155 -2,718

Ireland 37,695 39,142 38,405 38,910 38,381 40,054 45,711 1,447 -737 505 -530 1,673 5,658

South Korea 34,173 34,726 34,505 32,126 34,905 36,966 35,620 553 -221 -2,379 2,779 2,061 -1,346

Luxembourg 27,187 29,766 34,981 30,658 29,750 30,329 35,153 2,579 5,215 -4,323 -908 579 4,824

Bermuda 23,994 24,767 23,888 23,825 23,786 24,351 26,390 773 -879 -63 -39 565 2,039

Cayman Islands 22,815 22,918 22,851 22,847 22,855 23,637 23,391 103 -67 -3 8 782 -247

Switzerland 11,717 16,446 11,596 12,873 14,380 15,755 14,079 4,729 -4,850 1,277 1,507 1,375 -1,676

Netherlands 11,471 9,717 9,553 10,383 11,442 12,036 11,791 -1,754 -165 830 1,059 595 -245

Rest of World 83,560 76,575 77,885 71,554 76,980 77,729 85,499 -6,985 1,311 -6,331 5,426 749 7,770

Total 831,593 861,694 848,688 846,981 879,935 901,766 914,397 30,101 -13,006 -1,707 32,954 21,831 12,631

48
MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

0

50

100

150

200

250

Aug-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Feb-12

Aug-12

Feb-13

Aug-13

Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Aug-17

Feb-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of February 2018.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Aug-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Feb-12

Aug-12

Feb-13

Aug-13

Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Aug-17

Feb-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

The Fed has begun to wind down their portfolio, and we are beginning to see the effects in slower absorption 

rates. During the period October 2014-September 2017, the Fed had ended its purchase program, but was 

reinvesting funds from mortgages and agency debt into the mortgage market, absorbing 20-30 percent of agency 

gross issuance. With the wind down, which started in October 2017, the Fed will continue to reinvest, but by less 

than their run off. In February 2018, total Fed purchases decreased to $13.7 billion, yielding Fed absorption of 

gross issuance of 14.6 percent, a new historical low. The Fed absorbed 11.8 percent of Ginnie Mae issuance and 

16.0 percent of GSE issuance, respectively.

49
All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise noted. The

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

The views expressed in this material are the views of Urban Institute and State Street Global Advisors as

of April 12, 2018 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document

contains certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such

statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ

materially from those projected.   

© 2018 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

CLADM‐ 

Expiration Date: 4/30/2019

[Internal Tracking Code and Expiration Date to be removed upon providing this document to Ginnie

Mae]