Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
CONTENTS

Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 4

Global 10-year treasury yields 5

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 6-8

MBS yield per duration 9

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 10 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 11

National HPI, HPI by state 11-12

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 13

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 14

Outstanding Agency MBS 15

Origination volume over time 16

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 17-19

Purchase versus refi: Percent Refi at Issuance 20

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 21-22

FICO score distribution 23

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 24-26

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 27-29

High LTV credit box 30-31

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 32

Ginnie Mae nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 33

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 34-35

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae breakdown (FICO, LTV, DTI) 36-37

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 38-39

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 40

Prepayments 

Aggregate 41

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 41-44

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 45

Multifamily 46

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 47

Dealer net positions, repo volume 48

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 49

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 50

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 51

Foreign ownership of MBS 52-53

Fed Ownership of MBS 54
New Data on High-LTV Agency Lending Market

This month we are introducing two new pages providing more detail on Ginnie Mae’s role in the high-LTV 

(LTV ≥ 95) and lower FICO lending markets. Ginnie Mae executes its mission by providing its explicit full 

faith and credit US Government guarantee on the securitization of loans guaranteed by the FHA, VA and 

USDA. The Ginnie Mae guaranty makes these securities highly liquid and desirable to domestic and 

international investors. Their investments in turn provide the lending capital to sustain affordable 

homeownership. 

Page 30 shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO, comparing Q4 2018 to Q4 

2016. These two snapshots in time show how Ginnie’s market shares have evolved over time. The charts 

show market shares separately for three DTI buckets: DTI < 35%, 35 ≤ DTI < 45, and DTI ≥ 45. 

New data on the subsequent page (page 31) provides additional insight on the high-LTV lending market by 

comparing Ginnie Mae to the GSEs. Overall Ginnie Mae still has the commanding share of the high-LTV 

lending market, with 70.5 percent of its Q4 2018 issuances with LTVs above 95%, compared for 21.4 percent 

for GSE issuances. The GSEs have increased the high-LTV share of their issuances from 11.7 percent in Q4 

2016, while Ginnie Mae has seen a slight decline from 72.5 percent over the same period. 

The bottom table on the same page shows that the share of high-DTI (>=45 percent) lending has increased 

over the two-year period across all FICO buckets – in total from 24.6% in Q4 2016 to 35 percent in Q4 2018. 

This is a direct result of higher interest rates and higher house prices, both of which increase the monthly 

mortgage payment and the DTI ratio. Moving forward we will update these pages on a quarterly basis.

Highlights this month:

• Year-over-year home price appreciation slowed to 5.1% this month, the lowest level since mid-2015 (page

11).

• Agency gross issuance totaled $1.195 trillion in 2018, the lowest level since 2015 (page 17).

• Median DTI for Ginnie Mae issuances reached a new peak of 43.4% in December 2018 (page 29), led by

increase in median non-bank DTI (page 38).

• A new analysis of the credit box shows that Ginnie Mae captures most low-FICO lending, and compared the

market share of high-LTV lending over time (pages 30-31).

HIGHLIGHTS
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS comprise 28 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index-less than either the US Treasury share (39%) or the 

US Credit share (29%). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS comprises the largest percent of US MBS (10%), while Ginnie Mae 

30-year MBS and Freddie Mac 30-year MBS comprise 8 percent and 6 percent of the market, respectively. 

Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the remaining balance (4%) of the US MBS share. US securities are 

the single largest contributor to the Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 39 percent of the global total. US MBS 

comprises 12 percent of the global aggregate. 

39%

1%

29%

8%

10%

6%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

6%

25%

12%

1%

3%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2%

3%

1%

39%

31%

21%

1%

0.04%

2% 0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of December 2018.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of December 2018.

4
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2019.

US 10-year Treasury yields have generally been the highest in the developed world over the past few years, but since 

August 2018, have been neck-in-neck with Italy. In January 2019, yield on the US 10-year note fell to 2.63%, slightly 

above the 2.59% for the Italian 10-year note, while 10-year government bond yields in UK, Germany, and Japan fell 

to 1.22%, 0.15%, and 0.01% respectively. Since Q3 2017, due to a large increase in the cost of currency hedging, US 

10-year Treasury yields hedged into foreign currency dropped sharply. Consequently, the hedged yield differential 

between the 10-year Treasury and foreign 10-year government bonds, specifically JGBs and Bunds, now stand at -

39 bps and -66 bps, respectively. 

Yield(%)Yield(%)

5
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2019.

The nominal yield on both the current coupon GNMA II and GNMA I securities decreased in January 2018. 

Current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyieldtheir Treasury counterparts (relative to the average of 5-and 

10-year Treasury yields) by 66 and 65 bps on G2SF and GNSF, respectively, an 8-9 point tightening since Dec 

end, and 17 to 20 point tightening since Nov end. Prior to November, spreads had widened for 2 to 3 months.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

6
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2019.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus many 

sovereign alternatives. The figures show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into Japanese yen outyield

the JGB 5/10 blend by 25 bps at the end of January, less than the 41 bps at the end of December 2018, reflecting 

the spread tightening in the mortgage market.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

7
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2019.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus sovereign 

alternatives. The figures show that, current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into euros outyieldthe average of 

the German 5/10 blend by 13 bps at the end of January, less than the 28 bps at the end of December 2018, 

reflecting the spread tightening in the mortgage market.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

8
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of January 2019.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most securities with the same or longer durations. The only 

security class with significantly more yield is the US high yield index, where duration, a measure of sensitivity to 

interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield asset class. Investors are unable to 

match the yield on Ginnie Mae securities, while preserving the full government guarantee, even if they extend 

their duration significantly.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.7 2.4

US 10y 8.3 2.6

GNMA II 4.0% 4.8 3.4

GNMA II 3.5% 5.9 3.3

JPY 5y 4.9 -0.2

JPY 10y 9.9 0.0

GER 5y 5.2 -0.3

GER 10y 9.9 0.1

ITA 5y 4.3 1.5

ITA 10y 8.4 2.6

US credit 7.0 3.8

US credit >= A 7.2 3.6

US HY 3.7 6.9

Pan-Euro Corp 5.6 1.4

Pan-Euro HY 3.5 4.6

US 5y US 10y

G2 3.5%

G2 4.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration

9
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.25 0.23 0.07 0.02 0.16 -0.14

3 year 0.12 0.07 0.33 0.14 0.76 0.37

5 year 0.18 0.15 0.28 0.25 0.39 0.34

10 year 0.27 0.20 0.50 0.48 0.89 1.04

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.08 0.06 -0.10 0.08 -0.01 -0.08

3 year 0.02 -0.02 0.24 0.21 0.67 0.44

5 year 0.12 0.10 0.23 0.30 0.33 0.38

10 year 0.24 0.17 0.47 0.49 0.86 1.06

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.79 0.93 1.16 0.60 1.70 1.23

3 year 0.61 0.92 1.13 0.79 1.47 1.22

5 year 0.58 0.92 1.10 0.97 1.57 1.28

10 year 0.69 1.02 1.31 1.25 2.18 2.76

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

TimePeriod US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.10 0.06 -0.09 0.13 -0.01 -0.06

3 year 0.04 -0.02 0.21 0.26 0.46 0.36

5 year 0.21 0.11 0.21 0.31 0.21 0.30

10 year 0.35 0.17 0.36 0.39 0.39 0.38

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of January 2019.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade has been slightly higher than the US Treasury 

index, but lower than many alternatives, including the US Investment-Grade Corporate and US and European 

High Yield indices. However, the standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has 

the least price volatility over a 3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: the Sharpe Ratio or excess return per unit of 

risk for the US mortgage market is comparable to US and European investment grade credit; it is higher than US 

Treasuries.

10
State of the US Housing Market

7.7%

5.1%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Nov-01

May-02

Nov-02

May-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

May-05

Nov-05

May-06

Nov-06

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Black Knight HPI year-over-year Zillow HVI year-over-year

Sources: Black Knight, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of November 2018.

0.82%

0.73%

3.74%

1.95%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4Q053Q062Q071Q084Q083Q092Q101Q114Q113Q122Q131Q144Q143Q152Q161Q174Q173Q18

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q3 2018.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquencies for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans, and VA loans continued to decline in Q3 2018 to 

levels equal to, or lower than before the hurricane related uptick in Q4 2017. GSE delinquencies remain high 

relative to 2006-2007, while FHA and VA delinquencies (which are higher than their GSE counterparts) are at levels 

lower than 2006-2007. After touching 6.5 percent in early 2018, year-over-year house price appreciation has 

slowed slightly in recent months to 5.1 percent in November 2018, per Black Knight repeat sales index.

11
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources:Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of November 2018. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month 

when HPI reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell 

to the lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 11/2018, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 48.8 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis 

peak valuation on a nominal basis by 10.7 percent. However, the picture is very different for different states, with 

many states well in excess of the prior peak, while a number of states remain more than 10% below peak levels: 

Maryland is 11.0% below, Nevada is 11.3% below, Florida is 11.3% below and Connecticut is 15.3% below.

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 75.9% -25.6% 48.8% 5.1% 10.7%

Alabama 44.0% -15.2% 25.0% 6.1% 6.0%

Alaska 69.4% -3.1% 18.6% 1.6% 14.9%

Arizona 110.2% -48.0% 73.7% 7.1% -9.7%

Arkansas 41.9% -10.5% 21.8% 3.7% 9.0%

California 155.9% -43.4% 83.6% 3.6% 4.0%

Colorado 40.1% -12.7% 72.4% 6.5% 50.5%

Connecticut 92.6% -24.7% 12.5% 1.9% -15.3%

Delaware 94.3% -23.5% 25.9% 2.8% -3.7%

District of Columbia 175.1% -13.3% 50.7% 3.3% 30.7%

Florida 129.3% -47.0% 67.3% 6.1% -11.3%

Georgia 38.4% -32.1% 60.0% 7.5% 8.6%

Hawaii 162.1% -22.0% 45.8% 1.6% 13.7%

Idaho 71.5% -28.4% 70.1% 12.2% 21.8%

Illinois 61.7% -34.6% 36.2% 2.8% -10.9%

Indiana 21.3% -7.6% 30.1% 5.9% 20.3%

Iowa 28.3% -5.0% 24.1% 4.4% 18.0%

Kansas 34.6% -9.3% 37.1% 6.7% 24.4%

Kentucky 29.8% -7.6% 29.9% 4.4% 20.0%

Louisiana 48.8% -5.3% 20.5% 0.8% 14.1%

Maine 82.6% -12.5% 32.5% 5.9% 16.0%

Maryland 129.6% -28.3% 24.1% 2.9% -11.0%

Massachusetts 92.9% -23.0% 50.8% 5.4% 16.2%

Michigan 24.1% -39.6% 68.1% 5.7% 1.5%

Minnesota 66.4% -27.6% 48.9% 5.5% 7.8%

Mississippi 41.1% -13.6% 23.4% 6.5% 6.6%

Missouri 42.7% -14.7% 26.5% 4.6% 7.9%

Montana 81.9% -10.5% 46.2% 5.3% 30.8%

Nebraska 26.3% -6.6% 36.2% 5.2% 27.2%

Nevada 127.1% -59.4% 118.4% 12.6% -11.3%

New Hampshire 91.0% -23.8% 36.9% 6.2% 4.3%

New Jersey 118.3% -27.7% 26.3% 5.3% -8.7%

New Mexico 66.9% -16.1% 18.1% 3.3% -1.0%

New York 99.1% -15.2% 39.0% 6.8% 17.9%

North Carolina 40.4% -15.5% 31.2% 5.6% 10.9%

North Dakota 53.9% -4.0% 53.7% 2.5% 47.6%

Ohio 21.3% -18.3% 30.7% 5.6% 6.8%

Oklahoma 37.4% -2.3% 16.2% 2.5% 13.5%

Oregon 82.4% -27.8% 70.9% 5.4% 23.4%

Pennsylvania 70.5% -11.6% 21.6% 4.8% 7.5%

Rhode Island 131.1% -34.5% 47.1% 6.7% -3.6%

South Carolina 45.1% -19.3% 30.3% 5.0% 5.2%

South Dakota 45.2% -4.2% 43.8% 9.4% 37.7%

Tennessee 35.4% -11.9% 37.7% 5.4% 21.3%

Texas 33.3% -5.8% 47.1% 4.2% 38.6%

Utah 54.4% -21.8% 66.1% 9.9% 29.9%

Vermont 83.4% -7.4% 28.8% 6.9% 19.3%

Virginia 99.5% -22.7% 22.1% 2.8% -5.6%

Washington 85.6% -28.5% 76.5% 6.9% 26.2%

West Virginia 43.1% -6.0% 19.3% 6.0% 12.1%

Wisconsin 45.0% -16.4% 30.8% 6.5% 9.3%

Wyoming 77.9% -6.9% 25.5% 3.5% 16.8%

12
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State Ginnie Mae Share Ginnie Mae Average

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan 

Size (Thousands)

Ginnie Mae 

Share

Ginnie Mae Average 

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan Size 

(Thousands)

National 33.1% 216.1 232.0 30.2% 163.7 187.7

Alabama 44.2% 163.9 186.7 44.6% 127.9 151.3

Alaska 51.9% 285.1 249.1 51.1% 233.0 199.2

Arizona 32.2% 215.5 218.6 31.5% 164.7 177.0

Arkansas 43.6% 144.8 169.6 44.1% 110.0 137.0

California 27.1% 350.9 333.4 20.9% 268.3 267.2

Colorado 31.5% 292.1 280.5 27.0% 216.2 222.9

Connecticut 32.2% 216.6 227.8 29.0% 183.4 189.7

Delaware 37.6% 215.6 226.3 35.9% 180.3 184.3

District of Columbia 18.1% 419.7 359.3 16.1% 299.4 302.7

Florida 40.3% 210.9 210.2 34.4% 162.3 169.1

Georgia 39.9% 187.9 211.3 38.2% 141.6 168.8

Hawaii 38.1% 496.3 395.1 30.4% 390.4 315.3

Idaho 32.1% 205.6 210.0 31.6% 152.0 164.3

Illinois 26.6% 178.9 199.2 24.1% 141.0 161.2

Indiana 38.2% 144.2 160.1 37.3% 110.5 125.7

Iowa 27.1% 147.2 163.7 25.3% 113.4 131.4

Kansas 36.3% 156.4 176.8 35.1% 119.8 138.9

Kentucky 39.6% 151.9 168.0 38.5% 121.3 132.3

Louisiana 42.1% 171.4 194.7 41.4% 136.7 158.8

Maine 35.2% 186.9 203.9 31.7% 152.7 160.2

Maryland 43.7% 285.3 265.9 38.9% 232.1 219.2

Massachusetts 24.2% 296.1 285.0 18.9% 235.2 228.1

Michigan 25.5% 148.5 170.2 24.9% 112.8 134.5

Minnesota 24.1% 200.7 213.5 23.7% 155.5 170.4

Mississippi 50.1% 154.5 174.0 49.9% 119.2 141.6

Missouri 35.2% 153.5 174.3 34.4% 120.3 139.0

Montana 30.3% 220.7 224.0 29.2% 168.5 175.7

Nebraska 32.1% 166.3 173.3 32.6% 121.6 137.8

Nevada 34.1% 251.8 236.6 35.5% 185.3 188.6

New Hampshire 31.6% 238.6 227.8 28.6% 192.6 180.9

New Jersey 29.8% 252.0 266.1 27.0% 211.3 219.4

New Mexico 42.4% 181.9 189.2 42.2% 140.9 152.8

New York 26.3% 248.1 270.0 25.2% 185.6 213.7

North Carolina 34.1% 184.3 206.6 33.6% 140.6 165.5

North Dakota 28.9% 214.0 206.0 25.5% 166.5 166.3

Ohio 35.3% 144.6 157.7 35.6% 112.3 126.5

Oklahoma 45.4% 154.8 173.7 47.6% 118.2 139.8

Oregon 26.9% 261.3 262.6 23.3% 197.1 205.9

Pennsylvania 32.7% 168.4 195.1 32.2% 136.7 158.6

Rhode Island 38.2% 232.7 225.5 32.9% 186.1 182.4

South Carolina 39.5% 186.7 196.2 37.0% 146.0 160.0

South Dakota 36.9% 178.3 188.1 34.8% 142.5 149.6

Tennessee 40.1% 186.3 204.6 39.6% 137.5 162.9

Texas 34.9% 198.6 217.5 35.4% 140.0 174.0

Utah 28.6% 247.4 256.6 28.0% 188.8 205.1

Vermont 22.2% 191.4 199.4 19.4% 165.9 160.2

Virginia 45.1% 271.3 260.2 40.6% 222.7 216.9

Washington 29.9% 291.8 293.4 27.4% 217.0 226.7

West Virginia 48.9% 156.0 154.7 45.1% 126.2 127.4

Wisconsin 22.4% 168.9 178.0 20.5% 133.9 141.8

Wyoming 41.1% 215.4 215.1 39.6% 177.3 176.0

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae share are based on loan balance as of December 2018.

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 30.2 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 33.1 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 16.1 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 51.1 percent in 

Alaska. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

13
State of the US Housing Market

$10.8

$16.2

$27.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q3

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt, household mortgages Household equity Total Value

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Data as of Q3 2018.

$0.51

$0.59

$6.56

$3.25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q3

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Second Liens Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Inside Mortgage Finance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, and credit unions. Data as of Q3 2018.

The Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report has consistently indicated an increasing total value of the housing 

market driven by growing household equity since 2012, and 2018 Q3 was no different. While total mortgage 

debt outstanding increased slightly to $10.8 trillion, household equity reached a new high of $16.2 trillion, 

bringing the total value of the housing market to $27.0 trillion, 11 percent higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2006. 

Agency MBS make up 60.7 percent of the total mortgage market, private-label securities make up 4.2 percent, 

and unsecuritized first liens at the GSEs, commercial banks, savings institutions, and credit unions make up 30.1 

percent. Second liens comprise the remaining 5.0 percent of the total.

14
State of the US Housing Market

As of December 2018, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $6.64 trillion and were 43.2 percent 

Fannie Mae, 27.4 percent Freddie Mac, and 29.4 percent Ginnie Mae. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA have grown very rapidly post-crisis. FHA comprises 

59.8 percent of total Ginnie Mae outstanding, while VA comprises 34.2 percent.

$2.87

$1.82

$1.95

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

$1.2

$0.7

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of December 2018.

15
State of the US Housing Market

$0.39

$0.28

$0.02

$0.57

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q1-Q3

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2018.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q1-Q3

First Lien Origination Share

First lien originations totaled $1.26 trillion in the first three quarters of 2018, down slightly from the same period 

in 2017, as higher interest rates curtailed refinance activity. The share of bank portfolio originations was 31 

percent in the first three quarters of 2018, up from 30 percent in 2017. The GSE share was around 45 percent, 

down from 46 percent in 2017. The FHA/VA share was slightly down: 22 percent for the first three quarters of 

2018 versus 23 percent in 2017. Private-label securities comprised under 2 percent of originations, higher than the 

2017 share of 0.6 percent.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2018. 

30.9%

1.9%

22.1%

45.1%

16
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 YTD $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2018 % Change YOY -13.6% -9.5% -14.9% -12.1%

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2018 % Change YOY -9.5% -9.2% -9.4% -12.1% -10.3%

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of December 2018.

Agency gross issuance totaled $1.195 trillion in 2018, down 10.3 percent compared to 2017. Ginnie Mae gross 

issuance was down by 12.1 percent and GSE gross issuance was down by 9.4 percent. Within the Ginnie Mae 

market, FHA was down by 13.6 percent and VA origination was down by 9.5 percent. The broad decline in 

origination volume is the result of higher interest rates curtailing refinance volume.

17
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2018 % Change YOY -3.0% -19.1% -28.5% -13.3%

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $57.5 $11.6 $69.1 $87.9 $157.0

2014 $0.5 $30.0 $30.5 $61.6 $92.1

2015 $10.2 $65.0 $75.1 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $68.6 $66.8 $135.5 $125.3 $260.8

2017 $90.2 $78.2 $168.5 $131.3 $299.7

2018 $79.4 $68.4 $147.7 $113.9 $261.6

2018 % Change YOY -12.0% -12.6% -12.3% -13.3% -12.7%

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom) 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of December 2018.

Agency net issuance totaled $261.6 billion in 2018, down 12.7 percent compared to 2017. Ginnie Mae net issuance 

was $113.9 billion, comprising 43.4 percent of total agency net issuance. Note that Ginnie Mae net issuance in 2018 

was down 13.3 percent year over year. Ginnie Mae net issuance in 2018 comprised of 53.7 percent VA, 43.2 percent 

FHA and 3.1 percent other.

18
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of December 2018.

Agency gross issuance has been generally declining as rates have risen, but the seasonal trend is very strong. This 

table allows for a comparison with the same month in previous years. December 2018 gross agency issuance of 

$89.1 billion is below the December 2017 level of $111.5 billion.

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-16 $35.6 $22.5 $32.5 $90.6 -$0.6 $1.0 $7.3 $7.8

Feb-16 $32.4 $21.2 $30.5 $84.1 $2.4 $3.1 $8.4 $13.9

Mar-16 $39.7 $27.5 $32.9 $100.1 $7.9 $8.2 $9.6 $25.8

Apr-16 $43.8 $26.2 $40.1 $110.1 $0.8 -$0.2 $8.8 $9.4

May-16 $44.2 $29.9 $41.6 $115.6 $2.4 $4.4 $11.4 $18.3

Jun-16 $46.7 $30.1 $43.9 $120.8 $2.7 $3.0 $11.9 $17.7

Jul-16 $49.8 $35.3 $46.1 $131.1 $2.3 $6.3 $10.8 $19.4

Aug-16 $54.9 $37.9 $46.7 $139.5 $10.4 $11.0 $13.8 $35.2

Sep-16 $65.8 $44.0 $52.5 $162.4 $8.7 $9.0 $12.5 $30.2

Oct-16 $66.0 $35.9 $47.4 $149.3 $11.8 $2.7 $9.3 $24.5

Nov-16 $48.8 $40.2 $47.2 $136.3 -$3.5 $7.9 $10.3 $14.8

Dec-16 $72.7 $40.5 $46.8 $160.0 $23.3 $10.4 $10.8 $44.6

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $136.6 $10.3 $10.7 $10.3 $31.9

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $98.1 $3.1 $6.5 $9.2 $18.9

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $95.2 $10.3 $6.2 $9.6 $26.3

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $97.0 $4.8 $0.4 $11.7 $17.3

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $99.3 $7.6 $2.7 $13.1 $23.6

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $110.7 $8.3 $2.4 $13.2 $24.1

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $113.5 $5.8 $3.5 $12.1 $21.5

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $121.1 $12.0 $6.7 $15.6 $33.9

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $115.5 $7.4 $3.8 $10.5 $21.7

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $115.9 $6.4 $12.5 $10.7 $29.6

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $118.5 $4.6 $13.6 $8.2 $26.4

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $111.5 $9.6 $8.2 $6.8 $24.6

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.4 $0.3 $12.8 $20.6

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.0 $2.3 $10.2 $17.4

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $7.9 $14.0

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.1 $7.8 $16.8

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $4.5 $7.2 $11.8 $22.4

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.2 $6.8 $9.0 $19.5

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $7.9 $18.6

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $14.9 $7.9 $22.8 $35.6

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.7 $6.2 $11.9 $21.0

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $10.1 $7.6 $17.7 $29.7

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $2.6 $10.8 $13.3 $22.9

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $14.6 $23.0

Monthly Agency Issuance

19
US Agency Market, Originations

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Mortgage Rate

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance

Freddie Mac (left) Fannie Mae (left) Ginnie Mae (left) Mortgage rate (right)

21.5%

31.3%

0.01%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. Data as of December 2018.

The Ginnie Mae refi share stood at 23 percent in December 2018, below the 28 and 33 percent shares for Fannie 

Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively. Within Ginnie Mae, VA had the highest refi share at 31 percent in December 

2018, followed by FHA’s 22 percent. In the spring and summer of 2018, refi share for all agencies fell sharply due to 

rising interest rates and seasonal upticks in purchase activity. The refi share stabilized after the summer surge in 

purchase activity ended.

20
Credit Box

39.9%

44.0%

72.0%

52.9%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans remained at 72.0 percent in December 2018, just 

below the 72.4% historical high reached in May 2018. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher 

share of the Ginnie Mae purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers 

accounting for 44.0 percent and 39.9 percent of Fannie and Freddie purchase originations respectively. The 

bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated in December 2018, the average first-time homebuyer 

was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan and have a lower credit score, a much 

higher LTV and a similar DTI, thus requiring a higher interest rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 230,158 249,244 230,238 257,839 205,966 250,940 218,310 253,035 

Credit Score 741.2 756.2 735.2 752.3 678.6 699.9 708.7 740.1

LTV (%) 86.5 78.3 88.1 79.3 96.8 95.1 92.0 83.0

DTI (%) 36.3 36.9 37.0 37.4 42.4 43.2 39.5 38.7

Loan Rate (%) 5.0 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.1 4.9

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of December 2018.

21
Credit Box

78.4%

55.7%

83.1%

72.0%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Purchase Only Loans Breakdown by Source

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes 

the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 78.4 percent of FHA loans, 55.7 percent of VA loans and 83.1 percent of 

other loans represent financing for first time home buyers in December 2018. The bottom table shows that based 

on mortgages originated in December 2018, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average 

repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan and have a lower credit score, and similar LTVs and DTIs, thus requiring a 

higher interest rate.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 204,111 219,621 240,008 293,052 140,540 155,186 205,966 250,940 

Credit Score 669.3 672.3 698.0 727.5 695.0 701.4 678.6 699.9

LTV (%) 95.5 93.7 99.7 96.0 99.1 98.8 96.8 95.1

DTI (%) 43.7 44.5 41.6 42.8 35.2 35.9 42.4 43.2

Loan Rate (%) 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.9

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

22
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2017.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 503 524 587 682 774 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners-Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 570 615 682 752 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (682) is equal to the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (682).

23
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 257,189 643 681 732 775 797 725 

Fannie 91,468 680 713 753 784 801 746 

Freddie 73,073 689 721 759 787 802 751 

Ginnie 92,648 621 644 676 722 769 685 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 105,231 638 674 718 764 792 716 

Fannie 44,966 655 688 729 771 795 727 

Freddie 32,428 666 701 742 776 798 736 

Ginnie 27,837 604 635 671 711 754 674 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 362,420 642 679 727 772 796 722 

Fannie 136,434 669 704 746 781 799 740 

Freddie 105,501 681 714 754 784 801 747 

Ginnie 120,485 618 642 675 719 766 682 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 92,648 621 644 676 722 769 685 

FHA 56,833 614 637 664 699 738 670 

VA 27,710 630 660 710 765 793 711 

Other 8,105 637 658 693 732 766 696 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 27,837 604 635 671 711 754 674 

FHA 15,286 595 626 657 691 726 659 

VA 12,494 622 652 692 735 772 692 

Other 57 601 654 691 734 760 689 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 120,485 618 642 675 719 766 682 

FHA 72,119 610 635 663 697 736 668 

VA 40,204 628 658 703 756 790 705 

Other 8,162 637 658 693 732 766 696 

December 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of December 2018.

In December 2018, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 675 versus 746 for Fannie and 754 for Freddie. Note that 

the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 618 for Ginnie Mae, versus 669 for Fannie and 681 for Freddie. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 663, VA loans have a median FICO score of 703 and 

other loans have a median FICO score of 693.

24
December 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 257,548 70.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 87.1 

Fannie 91,568 64.0 80.0 85.0 95.0 97.0 82.7 

Freddie 73,118 60.0 75.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 81.0 

Ginnie 92,862 92.2 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.3 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 105,336 43.0 59.0 74.0 80.0 90.0 69.8 

Fannie 44,950 39.0 55.0 69.0 77.0 80.0 64.2 

Freddie 32,432 39.0 54.0 69.0 78.0 80.0 64.7 

Ginnie 27,954 66.2 79.9 86.5 95.2 100.0 84.6 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 362,884 57.0 75.0 86.2 96.5 97.5 82.1 

Fannie 136,518 50.0 69.0 80.0 90.0 96.0 76.6 

Freddie 105,550 50.0 68.0 80.0 90.0 95.0 76.0 

Ginnie 120,816 82.5 93.3 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.6 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 92,862 92.2 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.3 

FHA 56,946 92.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.1 

VA 27,757 90.5 100.0 100.0 102.2 103.1 98.0 

Other 8,159 94.7 98.9 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.0 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 27,954 66.2 79.9 86.5 95.2 100.0 84.6 

FHA 15,310 64.4 77.9 86.0 86.5 90.9 80.8 

VA 12,582 68.7 83.3 94.0 100.0 101.0 89.2 

Other 62 59.5 74.0 82.9 89.1 95.4 79.7 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 120,816 82.5 93.3 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.6 

FHA 72,256 82.3 89.9 96.5 96.5 96.5 92.1 

VA 40,339 81.0 94.4 100.0 100.4 103.0 95.3 

Other 8,221 94.3 98.8 101.0 101.0 101.0 98.9 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of December 2018.

In December 2018, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 80 percent for both 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 101 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 95-96 percent for Fannie 

Mae and Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 100.0 for VA and 101.0 for 

other programs. 

25
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 257,225 25.0 32.1 40.0 46.0 50.0 38.9 

Fannie 91,565 24.0 31.0 39.0 45.0 48.0 37.0 

Freddie 73,110 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 48.0 36.4 

Ginnie 92,550 29.7 36.3 43.3 49.8 54.7 42.6 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 103,172 24.0 31.3 40.0 46.0 49.5 38.2 

Fannie 44,558 24.0 31.0 40.0 46.0 49.0 37.8 

Freddie 32,180 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.7 

Ginnie 26,434 28.2 35.6 43.5 49.6 54.4 42.2 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 360,397 25.0 32.0 40.0 46.0 50.0 38.7 

Fannie 136,123 24.0 31.0 39.0 45.0 48.0 37.3 

Freddie 105,290 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 48.0 36.2 

Ginnie 118,984 29.4 36.1 43.4 49.7 54.6 42.5 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 92,550 29.7 36.3 43.3 49.8 54.7 42.6 

FHA 56,944 31.3 38.2 44.9 50.9 54.9 43.9 

VA 27,510 28.5 35.3 42.8 49.4 54.9 42.1 

Other 8,096 26.3 31.2 36.4 40.2 42.9 35.3 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 26,434 28.2 35.6 43.5 49.6 54.4 42.2 

FHA 14,465 29.0 36.2 44.2 49.8 54.4 42.6 

VA 11,923 27.4 34.8 42.6 49.2 54.4 41.7 

Other 46 15.5 25.9 33.1 37.5 39.9 30.9 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 118,984 29.4 36.1 43.4 49.7 54.6 42.5 

FHA 71,409 30.8 37.8 44.8 50.6 54.9 43.6 

VA 39,433 28.2 35.2 42.7 49.3 54.7 42.0 

Other 8,142 26.3 31.2 36.4 40.2 42.9 35.3 

December 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of December 2018.

In December 2018, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 43.4 percent, considerably higher than 

the 38-39 percent median DTI for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 54.6 

percent, also much higher than the 48 percent DTI for the GSEs. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI 

ratio was 44.8 percent, versus 42.7 percent for VA and 36.4 percent for other lending programs. 

26
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

746

754

675

727

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of December 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

The median FICO score for all agency MBS originated in December was 727, slightly lower than in November. 

The figures show that the median FICO score for GinnieMae borrowers has always been considerably lower 

than for GSE borrowers. The difference between GinnieMae and GSE borrowers is wider in purchase loans 

than in refi loans.

27
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

LTV Ratio for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 80 percent 

LTVs for the GSEs. Through time, both Ginnie Mae and GSE refinances have LTVs about 6-12 points lower 

than their purchase counterparts. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of December 

2018.

86.2

80

28
Credit Box: Historical

38.0

39.0

43.4

40.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

DTI Ratio for Refinance Loans 

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Debt-to-income Ratio

DTI Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of December 2018.

Median debt-to-income ratios on Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher 

than for the GSEs. DTIs have been inching up over the past eighteen months for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, 

with the movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTIs are very typical in the current 

environment of rising interest rates and rising home prices, both of which increase the monthly mortgage 

payment. 

29
95%

88%

69%

51%

36%

94%

81%

57%

40%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

94%

88%

70%

52%

36%

93%

81%

59%

42%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Q4 2016 Q4 2018

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

97% 97% 92%

84%

72%

98%

92%

79%

61%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high LTV lending by credit score and FICO. In each DTI bucket, 

Ginnie Mae’s share is more concentrated in the lower FICO scores than in the higher FICO scores. For example in 

Q4, 2018, Ginnie Mae accounted for 93% of agency issuance for DTIs less than 35 and FICOs below 640, 

compared to just 32 percent for loans with a DTI below 35 and FICO scores of 750 and higher. The Ginnie 

Mae/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI bucket looks a lot like the lower DTI bucket. Ginnie Mae’s share of issuance was 

higher for DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. For example the Ginnie Mae share 

of loans with a DTI of 45 and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 79 percent; it was 57-59 percent for the same 

FICO in the lower DTI buckets. In comparing Q4 2018 to 2 years earlier, it is clear that the GSEs have stepped up 

their higher LTV lending in all but the lowest FICO buckets; taking market share from Ginnie Mae. 

30
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

2016 Q4

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 3.2% 6.6% 3.6% 8.6% 10.4% 32.4%

35 −45 5.2% 10.4% 5.5% 12.1% 10.0% 43.1%

≥ 45 3.0% 7.6% 3.6% 6.4% 4.0% 24.6%

All 11.4% 24.5% 12.7% 27.1% 24.4% 100.0%

2018 Q4

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.8% 4.5% 2.5% 6.5% 8.4% 24.7%

35 −45 5.4% 8.9% 4.8% 11.3% 10.0% 40.3%

≥ 45 5.2% 9.0% 4.5% 9.5% 6.9% 35.0%

All 13.3% 22.4% 11.8% 27.3% 25.3% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

GinnieMae GSE All

2016 Q4 72.5% 11.7% 27.6%

2018 Q4 70.5% 21.4% 37.5%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 70.5 percent of Q4 2018 issuance having LTVs of 95 or above, 

compared to 21.4 percent for the GSEs. The GSEs have increased their high-LTV lending share from 11.7 percent 

in Q4 2016, while Ginnie Mae has seen a slight decline, down from 72.5 percent in Q4 2016. As home price 

appreciation and interest rates have increased from Q4 2016 to Q4 2018, the share of high-DTI lending (loans 

with DTI ≥ 45) has increased across the FICO spectrum.

31
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development.Data as of December 2018.

The nonbank origination share has been generally increasing since 2013. In December 2018, the Ginnie Mae 

nonbank originator share hit a new high of 83 percent, considerably higher than the GSEs’ 56-57 percent 

nonbank origination share. For Ginnie Mae, the nonbank share for refis was higher than the nonbank share for 

purchases. The differences were more modest for the GSEs.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

83%

65%

57%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

32
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development.Data as of December 2018.

In December 2018, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share hit a new high of 83 percent. The nonbank originator share 

for FHA increased to 89 percent, also a new historical high. The nonbank originator share for VA rose to 74 

percent, and the nonbank originator share for other loans increased to 81 percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

89%

83%

81%

74%

33
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of December 2018. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of December 2018. 

728

747

715

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018. 

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. The median GSE and the median Ginnie Mae 

FICO scores for loans originated by nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, both bank 

and nonbank FICOs have declined since 2014 with a further relaxation in FICOs since early 2017. In contrast, within 

the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations have increased since 2014 while nonbank FICOs have 

declined. This largely reflects the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks. 

34
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTV ratios for loans originated by nonbanks are similar to that of their bank counterparts, while the median 

DTIs for nonbank loans are higher, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in this dimension as well as in 

the FICO dimension. Note that since early 2017, there has been a measurable increase in DTIs. This is true for both 

bank and non-bank originations. Rising DTIs are to be expected amid rising rates and strong house price appreciation.

35
650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of December 2018.

The FICO scores for Ginnie Mae bank and nonbank originators remained flat in December 2018. The spread in 

the FICO scores between banks and non-banks remains at their widest level since 2013. The gap between 

banks and non-banks is very apparent in all programs backing GinnieMae securities: FHA, VA, and Other.

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of December 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of December 2018.

36
90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae VA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median LTV VA Bank Median LTV

VA Nonbank Median LTV

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of December 2018.

An analysis of the loans backing Ginnie Mae origination indicates that there are virtually no differences in 

median LTV ratios between bank originated loans and non-bank originated loans. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae LTV: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Ginnie Mae FHA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median LTV FHA Bank Median LTV

FHA Nonbank Median LTV

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Ginnie Mae Other LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median LTV Other Bank Median LTV

Other Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of December 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of December 2018.

37
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of December 2018.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA loans experienced notable increases since early 2017 for both 

bank and nonbank originations, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are expected 

in a rising rate environment.

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of December 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of December 2018.

38
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of December 2018.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative Share

1 Wells Fargo $274,916 16.3% 16.3%

2 Lakeview $176,105 10.4% 26.7%

3 PennyMac $169,926 10.0% 36.7%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $118,356 7.0% 43.7%

5 Nationstar $64,125 3.8% 47.5%

6 Quicken Loans $63,148 3.7% 51.2%

7 US Bank $60,646 3.6% 54.8%

8 JPMorgan Chase $57,313 3.4% 58.2%

9 Carrington Home Mortgage $43,871 2.6% 60.8%

10 Caliber Home Loans $42,358 2.5% 63.3%

11 USAA Federal Savings Bank $35,805 2.1% 65.4%

12 New Penn Financial $28,546 1.7% 67.1%

13 Midfirst $24,757 1.5% 68.6%

14 Navy Federal Credit Union $22,762 1.3% 69.9%

15 The Money Source $19,392 1.1% 71.1%

16 Pacific Union Financial $19,387 1.1% 72.2%

17 Ditech Financial $18,744 1.1% 73.3%

18 AmerihomeMortgage $17,727 1.0% 74.4%

19 Suntrust $17,564 1.0% 75.4%

20 Home Point Financial $16,325 1.0% 76.4%

21 Branch Banking and Trust $16,074 1.0% 77.3%

22 Loan Depot $15,756 0.9% 78.3%

23 Pingora $15,239 0.9% 79.2%

24 Guild Mortgage $15,120 0.9% 80.1%

25 Ocwen $13,577 0.8% 80.9%

26 Bank of America $12,717 0.8% 81.6%

27 Roundpoint $11,261 0.7% 82.3%

28 PNC $11,242 0.7% 83.0%

29 Citizens Bank $11,173 0.7% 83.6%

30 Flagstar Bank $10,814 0.6% 84.3%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of December 2018, over half (51.2 percent) of outstanding Ginnie Mae MSRs were owned by the top six firms. 

The top 30 firms collectively own 84.3 percent. Eighteen out of these 30 are non-depositories, while the 

remaining 12 are depositories.

39
61.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In December 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. Although Wells Fargo is still the largest player, its portfolio has shrunk 

to $278 billion. Lakeview, PennyMac, Freedom Home Mortgage, and Nationstar (all nonbanks) make up the 

remainder of the top five largest holders of MSRs, owning $160 billion, $158 billion, $116 billion, and $64 billion 

respectively as of December 2018. JPMorgan Chase is no longer in the top five. As of December 2018, nonbanks 

collectively owned servicing rights for 61.8 percent of all outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by 

Ginnie Mae. In December 2013, the nonbank share was much smaller at 27.7 percent. 

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of December 2018.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$274,916

$176,105

$169,926

$118,356

$64,125

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

1. Wells Fargo 2. Lakeview

3. PennyMac 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

UPB ($ millions) 5. Nationstar

40
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae securities were lower than on GSE securities from 2011 through mid-2013, but 

have been higher since. These increased Ginnie speeds reflect the growing share of VA loans, which prepay 

faster than either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA puts fewer restrictions on streamlined refinances, and 

unlike GSE streamline refinances, requires no credit report and no appraisal. Some of the upfront mortgage 

insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. Moreover, both FHA and VA permit refinancing of 

existing mortgages after 6 months, while the GSEs do not allow refinancing for a year. 

With the increase in interest rates since November 2016, the prepayment speeds for all agencies have 

slowed down considerably. Over the past 18 months, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it noneconomical to refinance, the small month to month variation in speeds reflects seasonality, changes in day count 

and changes in rates. With mortgage rates well above 4%, we expect prepayments to remain at low. 

9%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

9%

6%

41
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

The 2015 Ginnie II 3.5s and the 2016 Ginnie II 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have 

prepaid consistently faster than their conventional counterparts. 2015 and 2016 originations are more heavily 

VA loans than the 2011 origination shown on the preceding page. VA loans prepay faster than either FHA or GSE 

loans. The FHA streamlined programs are likely another contributor to the faster speeds.

After a sharp mortgage rate rise in November 2016, the prepayment speeds of Ginnie Mae and conventional 

loans both fell dramatically. Over the past year, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economic 

to refinance, the muted month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day count and 

changes in mortgage interest rates. With mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we would expect prepayments 

in the coming months to stay at low levels.

8%

5%

9%

7%

42
Prepayments

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Ginnie Mae securities season more slowly than their conventional counterparts; they generally have lower 

prepayments in the early months. The charts below show the behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-

issued 4.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years. Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s 

have been prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts since late 2017, due primarily to fast VA 

prepayment speeds. In comparison, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s have, for the most part, prepaid slower than their 

conventional counterparts. Speeds picked up for all 2018 4.0s towards the end of 2018 and in Jan 2019, likely 

driven by falling mortgage rates since November.

7%

5%

6% 

5%

43
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

The charts below show the prepayment speeds by loan age for 2017 Ginnie II 4.0s and 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s—the 

cohorts 50 basis points above the largest coupon cohort for those years. Prepayment speeds on the 2017 

Ginnie II 4.0s jumped up sharply at the 7-9 month loan age, reflecting abuse of the VA Streamlined Refi 

program (IRRRL). The 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s do not show increased speeds until the 11-13 month point; reflecting 

both the effect of lower rates and the actions taken by both Ginnie Mae and the VA in H1 2018 to curb this 

abuse. Ginnie Mae actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA prepayment speeds are 

especially high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling 

requirements so that if loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is 

ineligible for securitization. In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the lender to 

show the borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance.

11.3%

9.8%

8.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR

Loan age

19.6%

9.8%

8.3%

44
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Apr-11

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$55.1

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile in recent months. The December 2018 volume 

increased slightly to $0.62 billion, near the lower end of the range in recent years. Issuance has been declining 

since early 2018 largely due to the implementation of the new, lower principal limit factors. In December 2018, 

outstanding reverse mortgage securities totaled $55.1 billion.

$0.62

45
Multifamily Market

$2.0

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$117.8

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Jun-11

Aug-11

Oct-11

Dec-11

Feb-12

Apr-12

Jun-12

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volume in December 2018 totaled $2.0 billion, on par with average issuance 

levels over the past 18 months. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled $117.8 billion in December.

46
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

$218 

$535

$32 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.38%

3.58%

0.35% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume was $218 billion/day on average in 2018; slightly more robust than in the 2014-

2017 period. Agency MBS turnover in 2018 was on par with the 2014-2017 period; in 2018, average daily MBS 

turnover was 3.38 percent, the same level as in 2017. Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are 

down from their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury 

turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

47
Market Conditions

$230.4

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$55.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

Dealer net positions in agency MBS are down from the 2012-2013 time period, but remain within historic 

ranges. Gross dealer positions are likely to have fallen more than net positions. The volume of repurchase 

activity is up slightly from the near 13-year low in 2017. The large decline through time reflects banks cutting 

back on lower margin businesses. 

48
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007Q3 2008Q3 2009Q3 2010Q3 2011Q3 2012Q3 2013Q3 2014Q3 2015Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2018.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (19 

percent), commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (12 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares 

are a fraction of what they once were. 

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

49
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2018.

72.3%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2007Q3 2008Q3 2009Q3 2010Q3 2011Q3 2012Q3 2013Q3 2014Q3 2015Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2019.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, fewer agency notes and bonds are required to 

fund that activity, hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. As of Q3 2018, the MBS share of total 

agency debt stood at 72.3 percent. Commercial banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $1.9 

trillion in holdings as of the end of January 2019, $1.4 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

CommercialBank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Dec-17 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan 9 Jan 16 Jan 23 Jan 30

Largest Domestic 

Banks 1,292.6 1,297.9 1,304.3 1,307.4 1,306.9 1,307.5 1,323.9 1,355.2 1,368.9 1,398.8 1,391.0 1,392.8

Small Domestic 

Banks 490.0 493.5 495.0 494.8 495.4 494.0 491.8 493.1 496.6 499.4 501.4 501.8

Foreign Related 

Banks 36.4 31.3 27.4 24.4 22.3 23.0 23.9 30.0 28.6 29.2 26.0 24.2

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1,819.0 1,822.7 1,826.7 1,826.6 1,824.6 1,824.5 1,839.6 1,878.3 1,894.1 1,927.4 1,918.4 1,918.8

50
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $318,433 $187,152 $119,313 $11,841 $127 17.7%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $236,391 $168,041 $61,465 $3,960 $2,925 13.2%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $91,305 $57,256 $24,510 $322 $9,217 5.1%

4 U S. Bancorp. $77,495 $37,076 $14,024 $29,393 $1 4.3%

5 Charles Schwab Bank $76,747 $45,538 $12,196 $19,013 $0 4.3%

6 Capital One Financial Corporation $64,680 $27,444 $14,344 $21,872 $1,021 3.6%

7 Citigroup Inc. $61,064 $45,878 $4,304 $7,952 $2,930 3.4%

8 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $51,071 $30,503 $1,786 $17,255 $1,527 2.8%

9 PNC Bank, National Association $45,857 $36,539 $3,910 $2,902 $2,507 2.6%

10 Branch Banking and Trust Company $37,221 $12,259 $5,969 $18,464 $529 2.1%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $35,541 $12,242 $11,503 $8,354 $3,433 2.0%

12 E*TRADE Bank $24,257 $11,179 $4,244 $8,833 $0 1.4%

13 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $23,548 $7,169 $6,442 $9,935 $3 1.3%

14 KeyBank National Association $23,269 $1,213 $934 $21,122 $0 1.3%

15 SunTrust Bank $22,435 $11,721 $10,714 $0 $0 1.3%

16 Morgan Stanley $22,029 $9,355 $6,606 $6,068 $0 1.2%

17 Ally Bank $18,686 $10,332 $3,176 $2,759 $2,419 1.0%

18 The Northern Trust Company $18,593 $7,892 $27 $10,633 $41 1.0%

19 MUFG Union Bank $17,581 $5,933 $4,052 $6,735 $862 1.0%

20 Regions Bank $17,533 $10,359 $4,384 $2,788 $2 1.0%

Total Top 20 $1,283,736 $735,081 $313,902 $210,201 $27,542 71.6%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2018.

Out of the $1.8 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q3 2018, $1.3 trillion was agency pass-through: 

$966.52 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $373.21 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $416.2 billion was 

agency CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $36.4 billion. MBS holdings at banks and thrifts have been 

declining since the end of 2017; although Ginnie Mae pass-through holdings are up from Q4 2017 to Q3 2018.

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

1Q16 $1,660.58 $1,133.29 $833.25 $300.04 $448.63 $10.27 $68.39 

2Q 16 $1,684.33 $1,169.67 $867.64 $302.03 $440.25 $9.11 $65.29 

3Q16 $1,732.36 $1,227.52 $924.81 $302.71 $435.77 $7.90 $61.17 

4Q16 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01 

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04 

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

51
MBS Ownership

$947.8

$380.3

$567.6

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2018. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this res ulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of Q32018.

14.8%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

Foreign investors held 14.8 percent of agency MBS in Q3 2018, up from a low of 11.8 percent in Q1 2014. For 

the month of October 2018, this represents $947.8 billion in Agency MBS; $380.3 billion held by foreign private 

institutions and $567.6 billion held by foreign official investors. 

52
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2017 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2017. Monthly data as of October 2018.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Taiwan, Japan and China; these three comprise around 70 percent 

of all foreign holdings. Since December 2017, the three increased their holdings by 17.4 billion, 1.7 billion, and 16.9 

billion, respectively.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Oct-18

Q3 

2017

Q4 

2017

Q1 

2018

Q2 

2018

Q3 

2018 Oct-18

Taiwan 227,195 229,030 234,234 245,182 249,451 250,639 251,635 1,835 5,204 10,948 4,269 1,188 996

Japan 228,466 244,261 241,067 246,344 248,837 254,511 242,722 15,795 -3,194 5,277 2,493 5,674 -11,789

China 183,393 177,580 170,702 173,169 180,820 190,203 187,622 -5,813 -6,878 2,467 7,651 9,383 -2,581

South Korea 46,791 47,581 45,467 44,099 44,167 43,944 43,080 790 -2,114 -1,368 68 -223 -864

Ireland 44,229 46,648 51,525 49,164 47,662 48,220 47,819 2,419 4,877 -2,361 -1,502 558 -401

Luxembourg 31,289 33,026 37,575 39,336 37,111 38,800 39,360 1,737 4,549 1,761 -2,225 1,689 560

Cayman Islands 32,682 29,016 28,374 29,026 29,760 31,638 31,959 -3,666 -642 652 734 1,878 321

Bermuda 26,767 27,125 28,904 28,055 27,350 27,610 27,607 358 1,779 -849 -705 260 -3

Switzerland 17,312 18,675 16,794 13,063 11,813 11,908 11,643 1,363 -1,881 -3,731 -1,250 95 -265

Malaysia 12,365 13,162 12,751 12,139 12,754 12,874 12,661 797 -411 -612 615 120 -213

Rest of World 129,723 124,357 125,465 124,266 122,885 129,082 125,176 -5,366 1,108 -1,199 -1,381 6,197 -3,906

Total 980,212 990,461 992,858 1,003,843 1,012,610 1,039,429 1,021,284 10,249 2,397 10,985 8,767 26,819 -18,145

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Oct-18

Q3 

2017

Q4 

2017

Q1 

2018

Q2 

2018

Q3 

2018 Oct-18

Taiwan 227,073 228,914 234,127 245,069 249,349 250,539 251,535 1,841 5,213 10,942 4,280 16,412 996

Japan 221,528 237,689 234,985 239,898 243,028 248,842 237,027 16,161 -2,704 4,914 3,129 13,857 -11,815

China 177,546 172,042 165,576 167,737 175,924 185,425 182,823 -5,504 -6,465 2,161 8,187 19,849 -2,603

South Korea 33,891 35,362 34,158 32,114 33,365 33,403 32,491 1,471 -1,204 -2,044 1,251 -755 -912

Ireland 33,663 36,640 42,262 39,348 38,815 39,586 39,146 2,977 5,623 -2,914 -533 -2,676 -440

Luxembourg 28,314 30,208 34,967 36,572 34,620 36,369 36,918 1,894 4,759 1,605 -1,952 1,402 549

Cayman Islands 24,897 21,642 21,549 21,793 23,241 25,277 25,569 -3,255 -93 244 1,448 3,727 292

Bermuda 23,156 23,705 25,738 24,700 24,326 24,659 24,643 549 2,034 -1,038 -374 -1,079 -16

Switzerland 13,867 15,412 13,774 9,862 8,928 9,093 8,815 1,545 -1,638 -3,911 -934 -4,681 -278

Malaysia 11,905 12,726 12,348 11,712 12,369 12,498 12,283 821 -379 -636 657 150 -215

Rest of World 94,872 91,345 94,913 91,888 93,703 100,604 96,569 -3,527 3,567 -3,024 1,815 5,692 -4,035

Total 890,712 905,684 914,397 920,694 937,669 966,296 947,820 14,972 8,713 6,297 16,975 51,899 -18,476

53
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of December 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of December 2018.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

The Federal Reserve is actively winding down its mortgage portfolio, absorbing very little new issuance. During 

the period October 2014-September 2017, the Fed ended its purchase program, but was reinvesting proceeds 

from mortgage and agency debt into the mortgage market, absorbing 20-30 percent of agency gross issuance. In 

October 2017, the Fed began to taper their mortgage holdings, initially letting securities run off at the rate of $4 

billion per month in Q4, 2017; $8 billion per month in Q1, 2018; $12 billion per month in Q2; $16 billion per 

month in Q3; and $20 billion per month ins Q4, 2018 and thereafter. With the Fed now at its maximum taper, Fed 

absorption of gross issuance is 0.3 percent. 

54
All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise noted. The

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

The views expressed in this material are the views of the staff of the Urban Institute's Housing Finance 

Policy Center and State Street Global Advisors as of February 19, 2019 and are subject to change based

on market and other conditions. The views should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, 

or its funders. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking

statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and

actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.   

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