Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
CONTENTS

Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices4

Global 10-yeartreasury yields 5

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 6-8

MBS yield per duration9

Total returnand Sharpe Ratios 10

State of the US housing Market 

Serious delinquencyrates 11

National HPI 11

HPI by state 12

Ginnie Mae Agencyissuance and Agencyoutstanding by state 13

Sizeand value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 14

Outstanding Agency MBS 15

Origination volume over time 16

US Agency Market, Originations

Annual Agency Gross Issuance 17

Annual Agency Net Issuance 18

Monthly Agency Issuance 19

Purchase versus refi: Percent Refi at Issuance 20

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 21

First time home buyer share— Ginnie Maepurchase only loans 22

FICO score distribution 23

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 24-26

Historical creditbox (FICO, LTV,DTI) 27-29

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 30

Bank vs.nonbank originators credit box ata glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 31-33

Bank vs.nonbank originators historical credit box (FICO) 34

Prepayments 

Aggregate 35

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 36-37

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 38

Multifamily 39

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average dailytrading volume andturnover by sector 40

Dealer net positions, repo volume 41

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 42

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 43

Bank and ThriftResidential MBS Holdings 44

Foreign ownership of MBS 45-46

Fed Ownership of MBS 47
HIGHLIGHTS

The Disappearance of the Repeat Homebuyer

Page 20 shows that first-time homebuyer (FTHB) share for mortgages backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and 

Ginnie Mae. Because of FHA’s focus on serving low- and moderate-income borrowers and the FTHB population, 

Ginnie’s FTHB share has always been higher (70 percent) than Fannie’s and Freddie’s (around 40 percent). Also 

noteworthy, the FTHB share has been trending up during the last few years for all three agencies.Butthe rising 

share of FTHBs has less to do with increasing numbers of FTHBs, and more to do with dwindling numbers of 

repeat buyers.

In 2001, there were a total of 1.8 million repeat and 1.3 million FTHBs for the total of 3.1 million homebuyers in 

the GSE and FHA markets. The overall FTHB share was 41%. By 2016 though, the number of repeat buyers was 

down significantly, to 1 million, while the number of FTHBs was up slightly, to 1.4 million. The 2016 FTHB share 

was 58 percent. The basic strategy for upgrading to a bigger home has been to accumulate equity and convert that 

equity into down payment for a more expensive home. Carrying out this strategy has become difficult in the last 

decade. While house prices have increased, many homeowners have simply regained their lost equity and thus 

don’t have enough equity to upgrade yet. Additionally, real incomes have remained flat since the mid-1990s and 

credit standards are tight, further limiting trade-up activity.

Longer term, even if these barriers were to ease somewhat, rising mortgages rates will create a “lock-in” effect as 

homeowners with ultra-low rate mortgages may be unwilling to see their mortgage costs go up as they trade up. 

This also has negative implications for geographical mobility, which has been in a secular decline for several 

decades.

Highlights this month:

• The total value of the US Housing Market continued to rise in Q1 2017, driven by a $546 billion increase in 

household equity (Page 14)

• Portfolio accounted for a smaller share of first lien originations in Q1 2017 (Page 16)

• The Ginnie Mae gross issuance in the first five month of 2017 is only up 1.2 percent YOY, with FHA up by 2.5 

percent while VA down by 2.3 percent, courtesy of the higher rates (Page 17)

• Prepayment speeds continued to increase for all agencies in June 2017, mostly due to the recent decline in 

rates and a normal seasonal uptick (Pages 35-37).

• FICO scores have dropped sharply while DTIs have been creeping up in recent monthly for refinance loans 

(Pages 27 and 29)

3

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

First-time vs Repeat Homebuyers Using GSE or FHA Purchase Loans

First-time homebuyers Repeat homebuyers

Source: FHA, FHFA, eMBS and Urban Institute.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of June 2017

US MBS comprise 28 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index-- marginally less than either the US Treasury share 

(37%) or the US Credit share (31%). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS comprises the largest percent of US MBS (10%), while 

Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie Mac 30-year MBS comprise 8 percent and 6 percent of the market, 

respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15- and 20- year comprise the balance (5%) of the US MBS share. US securities 

are the largest single contributor to the Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 39 percent of the global total. US 

MBS comprises 12 percent of the global aggregate.

37%

2%

31%

8%

10%

6%

5%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

6%

25%

12%

1%

Global Treasury 3%

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

4

2%

3% 1%

39%

31%

21%

1%

0.2%

2%

0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2017

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

-

5

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y Bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2017

Over the past few years, US Treasury interest rates, as measured by the 10-year note have consistently been the 

highest in the developed world. After a dip to the level of Italy’s 10-year bond yield in April and May, the US 10-

year Treasury note edged up to 2.3 percent in June, higher than 2.2 percent for Italy, 1.26 percent for the UK, 

0.47 percent for Germany and 0.09 percent for Japan. If the Treasury notes are hedged into foreign currencies, 

the US yield advantage stood at 59 basis points (bps) versus the JGB, and -11 bps versus the 10-year Bund in June 

2017 . This month showed a increase of 12 bps versus the JGB and a decrease of 2 bps versus the Bund.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

6

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2017

Ginnie securities outyield their Treasury counterparts (as measured by the average of the 5- and 10-year 

Treasury yields) – 75 and 77 basis points on G2SF and GNSF, respectively.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

7

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2017

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis; handily 

outyielding the sovereign debt of other countries. This figure shows that G2SF and GNSF hedged into 

Japanese yen yield more than the JGB 5/10 blend by 121 and 123 basis points, respectively.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

8

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2017

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus sovereign 

alternatives. This figure shows that G2SF and GNSF hedged with euros yield more than the average of the 

German 5/10 Bund blend by 78 and 80 basis points, respectively.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency ofsecurity and unhedged. 

Data as of June 2017.

As interest rates have risen, Ginnie Mae durations have extended by more than a year. Even so, US MBS yields 

are about the same or higher than most securities with the same or shorter durations. The only exception is the 

high yield index, where interest rate risk does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield asset class. 

Investors are unable to match the yield on Ginnie Mae securities, while preserving the full government 

guarantee, even if they extend their duration significantly.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.8 1.75

US 10y 8.8 2.20

GNMA II 3% 6.5 2.72

GNMA II 3.5% 5.5 2.73

JPY 5y 4.8 -0.12

JPY 10y 9.7 0.04

GER 5y 4.9 -0.43

GER 10y 9.6 0.30

ITA 5y 4.6 0.91

ITA 10y 8.8 2.19

US credit 7.2 3.07

US credit >= A 7.6 2.94

US HY 3.9 5.48

Pan-Euro corp 5.9 1.07

Pan-Euro HY 3.4 2.7

9

US 5y

US 10y

G2 3.0%

G2 3.5%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield per duration
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Source: State Street

*A 2% max r

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.01 -0.19 0.20 0.10 1.01 0.76

3 year 0.16 0.17 0.30 0.27 0.38 0.39

5 year 0.14 0.11 0.33 0.40 0.57 0.73

10 year 0.36 0.34 0.49 0.37 0.67 0.73

* ssumes 2 capitalization ma per issue

*Assumes 2% capitali ati per issuer

Source: State Street

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.06 -0.24 0.15 0.17 0.96 0.83

3 year 0.14 0.15 0.28 0.31 0.36 0.44

5 year 0.13 0.10 0.32 0.43 0.56 0.76

10 year 0.32 0.30 0.45 0.33 0.64 0.69

l zat on max

*A 2% on max 

Source: State Street

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.57 0.93 1.13 1.13 0.97 0.88

3 year 0.50 1.00 1.18 1.17 1.75 1.45

5 year 0.66 0.90 1.20 1.19 1.52 1.37

10 year 0.76 1.22 1.74 1.46 3.07 3.64

* ssumes 2 capitalizatiCor o ma per issuer

10

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Co p

Pan Euro 

Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.10 -0.25 0.13 0.15 0.99 0.94

3 year 0.27 0.15 0.24 0.27 0.21 0.30

5 year 0.19 0.11 0.26 0.36 0.37 0.55

10 year 0.42 0.25 0.26 0.22 0.21 0.19

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of June 2017

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade has been in line with the US Treasury Index, but 

lower than many alternatives, including the US Investment-Grade Corporate and US and European High Yield 

Indices. However, the standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least 

duration (interest rate risk). The result: the excess return per unit of risk for the mortgage market is the highest of 

any market over the past decade.
State of the US Housing Market

7.3%

6.9%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Oct-00

Apr-01

Oct-01

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

CoreLogic HPI year-over-year Zillow HPI year-over-year

Sources: CoreLogic, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2017

11

1.12%

0.92%

3.99%

2.13%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1Q053Q051Q063Q061Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q17

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q1 2017.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquencies for GSE single-family loans continue to decline in Q1 2017. After last quarter’s small 

seasonal upswing, both FHA and VA delinquencies resumed a decline to 3.99 and 2.13 percent in Q1 2017, 

respectively, falling even lower than levels before last quarter’s uptick. GSE delinquencies remain higher relative 

to 2005-2007, while FHA and VA delinquencies (which are higher than their GSE counterparts) are at levels 

lower than 2005-2007. Home price changes turned positive in 2012, and continue to increase at around 7 

percent per year, as measured by both CoreLogic and Zillow.
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgages,

Sources: CoreLogic and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of April 2017. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when HPI reached 

the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to the lowest level for 

each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 04/2017, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, the housing market has improved by 47.3 percent since the trough, and needs to increase by another 

1.9 percent to achieve peak valuation. However, the picture is very different for different states, with many states 

well in excess of the prior peak, while Nevada is 40.7 percent below peak levels and Connecticut and Florida 

remain 26 and 24 percent below peak levels, respectively.

12

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Below Peak

National 93.7% -33.4% 47.3% 6.9% 1.9%

Alabama 46.1% -21.0% 22.4% 6.6% 3.3%

Alaska 68.9% -9.2% 15.4% -0.2% -4.5%

Arizona 121.6% -50.6% 62.6% 6.0% 24.5%

Arkansas 39.3% -7.8% 14.7% 6.0% -5.5%

California 149.0% -42.6% 68.9% 5.9% 3.1%

Colorado 40.3% -13.9% 60.1% 8.8% -27.5%

Connecticut 79.5% -25.0% 5.7% 0.4% 26.1%

Delaware 90.4% -24.1% 14.9% -0.2% 14.7%

District of Columbia 150.5% -10.4% 36.6% 5.0% -18.3%

Florida 149.2% -49.7% 59.9% 6.4% 24.4%

Georgia 40.2% -31.0% 47.8% 5.6% -2.0%

Hawaii 152.4% -20.7% 43.5% 6.1% -12.1%

Idaho 86.0% -41.1% 62.8% 6.8% 4.2%

Illinois 60.0% -32.8% 28.4% 5.0% 15.8%

Indiana 24.3% -16.4% 25.3% 5.8% -4.5%

Iowa 25.6% -4.8% 16.6% 2.3% -9.9%

Kansas 33.2% -13.9% 22.4% 3.1% -5.1%

Kentucky 27.0% -8.9% 16.9% 3.4% -6.1%

Louisiana 58.4% -7.7% 22.4% 4.7% -11.5%

Maine 92.5% -15.5% 31.8% 0.2% -10.2%

Maryland 137.8% -31.3% 17.5% 3.3% 23.8%

Massachusetts 81.8% -21.4% 35.8% 6.1% -6.3%

Michigan 26.0% -43.4% 67.1% 8.7% 5.8%

Minnesota 69.9% -28.3% 37.9% 6.0% 1.1%

Mississippi 35.6% -19.1% 15.2% 0.4% 7.3%

Missouri 46.2% -22.3% 26.9% 4.9% 1.4%

Montana 80.2% -16.6% 32.0% 4.4% -9.2%

Nebraska 25.3% -5.2% 23.2% 5.3% -14.3%

Nevada 128.9% -60.1% 77.9% 6.7% 40.7%

New Hampshire 83.0% -24.0% 27.2% 6.7% 3.5%

New Jersey 109.7% -26.5% 12.8% 2.9% 20.6%

New Mexico 64.3% -26.8% 16.8% 2.0% 16.9%

New York 102.4% -13.8% 31.0% 7.2% -11.4%

North Carolina 39.5% -14.7% 25.0% 5.7% -6.3%

North Dakota 49.5% -2.0% 46.0% 2.8% -30.1%

Ohio 22.1% -20.7% 24.2% 3.4% 1.5%

Oklahoma 35.6% -3.3% 12.9% 1.2% -8.4%

Oregon 87.6% -29.4% 62.2% 9.1% -12.7%

Pennsylvania 71.6% -12.8% 12.7% 3.2% 1.8%

Rhode Island 130.9% -34.6% 25.4% 4.9% 22.0%

South Carolina 61.4% -22.3% 30.3% 5.8% -1.3%

South Dakota 37.3% -3.6% 25.0% 2.5% -17.0%

Tennessee 41.0% -13.5% 29.8% 5.1% -11.0%

Texas 39.3% -13.2% 43.6% 4.8% -19.8%

Utah 64.8% -31.9% 58.2% 10.1% -7.2%

Vermont 81.3% -8.9% 8.1% 2.1% 1.6%

Virginia 135.3% -30.7% 28.1% 2.3% 12.7%

Washington 90.2% -28.2% 60.8% 12.0% -13.4%

West Virginia 78.7% -30.3% 16.1% 0.3% 23.5%

Wisconsin 48.6% -17.4% 23.5% 7.0% -1.9%

Wyoming 75.9% -15.2% 19.9% -3.9% -1.7%
State of the US Housing Market

hou

Debt,

sehold

rtg ges

$9,833

mortga ,

Agency Issuance (past 1 year)

State Ginnie Mae Share Ginnie Mae Average

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan 

Size (Thousands)

Ginnie Mae 

Share

Agency Outstanding 

Ginnie Mae Average 

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan

Size (Thousands)

National 33.3% 210.9 229.7 32.9% 173.8 205.0

Alabama 46.1% 158.9 180.2 48.0% 139.7 166.4

Alaska 53.3% 279.6 244.0 52.4% 252.0 225.2

Arizona 37.7% 201.2 206.3 35.6% 170.8 186.8

Arkansas 43.2% 140.0 166.0 47.8% 120.5 150.7

California 26.9% 335.2 321.7 22.5% 275.7 287.8

Colorado 32.1% 262.1 255.8 31.6% 217.7 230.0

Connecticut 31.0% 214.6 228.3 30.0% 202.5 217.1

Delaware 40.0% 213.5 220.0 37.8% 196.5 205.6

District of Columbia 17.7% 404.6 360.8 18.3% 317.4 329.4

Florida 39.9% 199.7 198.7 37.2% 166.7 181.0

Georgia 41.4% 177.3 204.7 41.5% 150.6 182.9

Hawaii 40.1% 483.7 372.5 31.7% 406.5 340.7

Idaho 35.9% 184.1 188.7 36.1% 157.2 170.8

Illinois 24.5% 175.5 201.5 25.5% 152.8 181.6

Indiana 39.4% 137.4 156.4 40.5% 119.6 139.4

Iowa 24.4% 142.0 164.5 27.8% 122.9 146.3

Kansas 34.6% 150.1 174.2 37.9% 130.4 154.4

Kentucky 40.4% 146.1 166.0 40.8% 131.1 147.8

Louisiana 42.3% 168.4 189.6 44.5% 148.4 175.0

Maine 35.8% 180.3 196.0 33.2% 164.3 178.3

Maryland 44.5% 282.0 267.0 40.2% 248.2 244.7

Massachusetts 21.4% 277.2 277.0 19.8% 247.6 251.7

Michigan 26.4% 141.7 168.4 27.6% 120.8 148.9

Minnesota 25.2% 190.2 205.1 26.5% 166.1 187.0

Mississippi 49.2% 147.9 169.2 53.3% 129.6 155.8

Missouri 34.8% 148.3 173.5 37.3% 130.4 153.8

Montana 31.5% 206.6 207.8 32.6% 178.2 187.7

Nebraska 32.1% 157.0 168.2 37.0% 132.1 150.6

Nevada 43.9% 221.9 213.8 42.0% 189.1 192.2

New Hampshire 32.5% 223.8 219.0 30.7% 205.1 198.7

New Jersey 29.2% 248.5 267.6 28.6% 231.0 246.7

New Mexico 44.8% 174.9 184.9 44.7% 154.2 171.0

New York 26.7% 238.4 263.4 27.2% 201.3 239.4

North Carolina 35.1% 175.3 200.4 36.9% 151.9 181.9

North Dakota 27.2% 206.8 203.4 27.5% 175.8 182.1

Ohio 36.8% 138.2 156.8 38.7% 123.5 142.3

Oklahoma 46.5% 149.9 169.0 51.2% 129.0 154.8

Oregon 27.5% 236.3 244.7 26.4% 202.7 215.3

Pennsylvania 34.6% 166.7 193.5 34.6% 150.4 178.7

Rhode Island 36.7% 213.7 215.5 34.2% 196.5 200.6

South Carolina 40.3% 177.8 190.9 39.7% 154.7 174.8

South Dakota 35.4% 171.3 181.4 37.8% 151.5 161.4

Tennessee 42.0% 172.1 193.5 44.2% 146.1 174.3

Texas 35.9% 186.6 208.6 39.8% 147.6 187.0

Utah 32.1% 221.3 235.3 33.7% 194.8 212.5

Vermont 23.4% 195.0 195.2 19.9% 179.8 180.8

Virginia 45.6% 277.1 265.3 42.2% 239.4 242.0

Washington 32.0% 264.5 266.9 31.4% 224.9 236.7

West Virginia 47.7% 154.1 154.6 46.1% 136.9 145.6

Wisconsin 21.3% 160.9 175.2 22.1% 144.4 158.8

Wyoming 41.1% 207.6 207.7 42.3% 190.6 193.0

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae share are based on loan balance as of April 2017.

Ginnie Mae loans constitute 32.9 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance, 33.3 percent of the 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstandings (as measured by loan balance) as low as 18.3 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 53.3 

percent in Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

13
State of the US Housing Market

$10.3

$14.4

$24.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

14

Debt, household mortgages Household equity Total Value

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Data as of Q1 2017.

$0.5

$0.6

$6.2

$3.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Second Liens Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Inside Mortgage Finance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, and credit unions. Data as of Q1 2017.

The Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report has consistently indicated an increasing total value of the housing 

market driven by growing household equity since 2012, and 2017 Q1 was no different. While total debt and 

mortgages was stable at $10.3 trillion, household equity reached a new high of $14.4 trillion, bringing the total 

value of the housing market to $24.8 trillion, surpassing the pre-crisis peak of $23.9 trillion in 2006. Agency MBS 

make up 59.5 percent of the total mortgage market, private-label securities make up 4.9 percent, and 

unsecuritized first liens at the GSEs, commercial banks, savings institutions, and credit unions make up 29.9 

percent. Second liens comprise the remaining 5.7 percent of the total.
State of the US Housing Market

As of May 2017, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $6.19 trillion and were 44.1 percent Fannie 

Mae, 27.4 percent Freddie Mac, and 28.4 percent Ginnie Mae. Ginnie Mae now has more outstandings than 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, VA has been growing very rapidly--comprising 31.9 percent of total 

Ginnie Mae outstandings.

15

$2.7

$1.7

$1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Nov-00

May-01

Nov-01

May-02

Nov-02

May-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

May-05

Nov-05

May-06

Nov-06

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017

$1.1

$0.6

$0.1

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

Nov-00

May-01

Nov-01

May-02

Nov-02

May-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

May-05

Nov-05

May-06

Nov-06

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of May 2017
State of the US Housing Market

$0.21

$0.09

$0.003

$0.08

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume

16

Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2017.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1

First Lien Origination Share

After a record high origination year in 2016 ($2.1 trillion), the first lien originations totaled $385 billion in the first 

quarter of 2017, mostly due to the increase in interest rates and traditionally low winter activity. The share of 

portfolio originations was 21 percent, down sharply from 31 percent in 2016. The GSE share went up to 53 

percent, from 46 percent for 2016. The FHA/VA share was slightly up: 25 percent in Q1 2017 versus 23 percent in 

2016. Origination of private-label securities was well under 1 percent in both periods.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2017. 

20.7%

0.8%

25.3%

53.2%
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

househ

mortga

old

ges,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total Agency

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 YTD $104.4 $67.2 $8.2 $179.8

2017 %Change YOY 2.5% -2.3% 18.0% 1.3%

2017 Ann. $250.6 $161.3 $19.7 $431.45

17

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 YTD $212.3 $134.0 $346.4 $179.8 $526.1

2017 %Change YOY 8.5% 5.4% 7.3% 1.3% 5.1%

2017 Ann. $509.5 $321.7 $831.2 $431.4 $1,262.7

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. Annualized figure based on data from May 2017. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public

and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of May 2017.

Agency gross issuance totaled $526.1 billion in the first five months of 2017, a 5.1 percent increase from the same, 

very sluggish period last year. Ginnie Mae gross issuance is up by 1.3 percent, while GSE gross issuance is up by 7.3 

percent. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA is up by 2.5 percent while VA origination is down by 2.3 percent. As a 

result of higher rates, origination in 2017 is expected to be down substantially compared to 2016.
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgages,

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 YTD $21.0 $31.4 $1.5 $53.8

2017 %Change YOY 25.8% 20.3% -46.9% 18.2%

2017 Ann. $50.32 $75.24 $3.58 $129.14

 

18

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $57.5 $11.6 $69.1 $87.9 $157.0

2014 $0.5 $30.0 $30.5 $61.6 $92.1

2015 $10.2 $65.0 $75.1 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $68.6 $66.8 $135.5 $124.9 $260.4

2017 YTD $36.2 $26.5 $62.7 $53.8 $116.5

2017 %Change YOY 178.7% 59.6% 111.9% 18.2% 55.1%

2017 Ann. $86.8 $63.6 $150.4 $129.1 $279.5

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom) 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. Annualized figure based on data from May 2017. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of May 2017.

Agency net issuance totaled $116.5 billion for the first five months of 2017, up 55.1 percent over the same period 

last year. Ginnie Mae net issuance was $53.8 billion, comprising 46.2 percent of total agency net issuance. Note 

that Ginnie Mae net issuance is up 18.2 percent versus the same time last year. Ginnie Mae net issuance is 

comprised of 58.3 percent VA issuance, 39.0 percent FHA issuance and 2.8 percent other issuance.
US Agency Market, Originations

bt,

 

De

hous

mort

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

ehold

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. 

rtgages,

All data is as of May 2017.

With the winter season and elevated mortgage rates since the election, monthly agency issuance has been 

declining in the first five months of 2017. Freddie Mac gross issuance was almost cut in half from 41 billion in 

December 2016 to 23 billion in May 2017, and Fannie Mae’s gross issuance dropped from 73 to 40 billion. Less 

dependent on refinances, Ginnie Mae gross issuance fell less from 47 to 36 billion in the same period, driving its 

share up to 37 percent in May 2017. Despite the variability in gross issuance, Ginnie net issuance is relatively 

constant; 10.8 billion per month for the first five months of 2017, versus 10.5 billion per month in 2016.

19

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Jan-14 $28.2 $20.0 $21.6 -$4.9 $0.5 $4.9

Feb-14 $27.9 $17.9 $20.1 -$0.2 $1.2 $5.2

Mar-14 $24.1 $14.7 $16.7 -$2.3 -$0.9 $1.9

Apr-14 $28.0 $18.7 $21.7 -$1.9 $1.2 $5.2

May-14 $27.7 $18.1 $23.9 -$3.7 $0.0 $4.9

Jun-14 $32.1 $20.7 $24.9 -$0.4 $1.8 $4.5

Jul-14 $36.3 $23.2 $27.4 $0.6 $2.6 $5.4

Aug-14 $34.2 $28.4 $30.0 -$2.7 $7.4 $7.9

Sep-14 $39.6 $25.9 $27.0 $4.8 $5.6 $5.2

Oct-14 $39.5 $25.8 $29.9 $4.3 $6.2 $8.4

Nov-14 $32.0 $23.1 $26.4 -$3.0 $2.7 $4.2

Dec-14 $43.3 $21.6 $26.7 $9.9 $1.8 $4.1

Jan-15 $36.8 $22.9 $27.5 -$1.2 $0.8 $2.5

Feb-15 $35.4 $29.9 $23.9 $1.5 $10.1 $2.9

Mar-15 $44.8 $26.0 $30.7 $3.1 $1.1 $0.6

Apr-15 $49.3 $33.8 $40.6 -$1.2 $3.8 $4.3

May-15 $42.4 $33.2 $39.4 -$2.9 $6.6 $5.8

Jun-15 $44.6 $34.4 $40.5 $0.8 $8.3 $9.1

Jul-15 $46.0 $39.2 $45.6 $1.0 $12.3 $13.3

Aug-15 $39.4 $27.6 $43.4 -$2.2 $3.1 $14.9

Sep-15 $45.3 $30.4 $39.4 $7.6 $7.9 $12.7

Oct-15 $41.5 $28.4 $39.2 $4.8 $6.4 $12.4

Nov-15 $28.8 $23.3 $35.8 -$8.1 $1.3 $10.6

Dec-15 $39.7 $22.8 $30.3 $7.1 $3.2 $8.2

Jan-16 $35.6 $22.5 $32.5 -$0.6 $1.0 $7.3

Feb-16 $32.4 $21.2 $30.5 $2.4 $3.1 $8.4

Mar-16 $39.7 $27.5 $32.9 $7.9 $8.2 $9.6

Apr-16 $43.8 $26.2 $40.1 $0.8 -$0.2 $8.8

May-16 $44.2 $29.9 $41.6 $2.4 $4.4 $11.4

Jun-16 $46.7 $30.1 $43.9 $2.7 $3.0 $11.9

Jul-16 $49.8 $35.3 $46.1 $2.3 $6.3 $10.8

Aug-16 $54.9 $37.9 $46.7 $10.4 $11.0 $13.8

Sep-16 $65.8 $44.0 $52.5 $8.7 $9.0 $12.5

Oct-16 $66.0 $35.9 $47.4 $11.8 $2.7 $9.3

Nov-16 $48.8 $40.2 $47.2 -$3.5 $7.9 $10.3

Dec-16 $72.7 $40.5 $46.8 $23.3 $10.4 $10.8

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $10.3 $10.7 $10.3

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $3.1 $6.5 $9.2

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $10.3 $6.2 $9.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $4.8 $0.4 $11.7

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $7.6 $2.7 $13.1

Monthly Agency Issuance
US Agency Market, Originations

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

03 Nov04

May04 NovMay-05

Nov-05

May-06

Nov-06

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Mortgage Rate

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance

Freddie Mac (left) Fannie Mae (left) Ginnie Mae (left) Mortgage rate (right)

25.2%

41.5%

0% 3.6%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

e 13 Spt-13

Oc

-13 Nov

-13

Dec

-14 Jan

-14 Feb

a 14

Marp 14

Apr-

-14

May

-14 Jun

l-14 Ju

-14 Aug

e 14 Spt-14

Oc

-14 Nov

-14

Dec

-15 Jan

-15 Feb

a 15

Marp 15

Apr-

-15

May

-15 Jun

l-15 Ju

-15 Aug

e 15 Spt-15

Oc

-15 Nov

-15

Dec

-16 Jan

-16 Feb

a 16

Marp 16

Apr-

-16

May

-16 Jun

-16 Jul

-16 Aug

e 16 Spt-16

Oc

-16 Nov

-16

Dec

-17 Jan

-17 Feb

a 17

Marp 17

Apr-

-17

May

fi ent Re Perc

Percent Refi at Issuance: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of May 2017.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. Data as of May 2017.

The Ginnie Mae refi share stood at 27 percent in May 2017, below the 40 percent shares for Fannie Mae and 

Freddie Mac. Within Ginnie Mae, VA had the highest refi share of 42 percent in May 2017, followed by FHA’s 25 

percent refi share.

20
Credit Box

38.6%

42.9%

70.9%

54.0%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017.

First time homebuyers are important to the Ginnie Mae market, comprising 71 percent of purchase originations, 

compared to Fannie and Freddie’s 43 percent and 39 percent share of the first-time homebuyer market. The 

bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated in May 2017, the average first-time homebuyer was 

more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan and have a lower credit score, a much higher 

LTV and a higher DTI, thus requiring a higher interest rate.

21

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount 

($Thousands ) 231.0 252.7 228.2 256.6 196.0 238.8 210.5 249.8

Credit Score 739.9 753.9 740.1 756.5 682.0 700.0 707.4 737.3

LTV (%) 86.5 80.1 86.9 79.1 98.0 96.5 93.1 85.1

DTI (%) 34.9 35.7 34.2 35.1 40.7 41.6 37.9 37.4

Loan Rate (%) 4.38 4.28 4.38 4.25 4.27 4.17 4.31 4.23

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA and VA loans. This new issuer-reported LTV includes the upfront 

mortgage insurance premium, and thus is higher than the previously reported LTV. Data as of May 2017.
Credit Box

76.3%

54.2%

78.6%

70.9%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Purchase Only Loans Breakdown by Source

 

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the

Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 76 percent of FHA loans, 54 percent of VA loans and 78 percent of other 

loans represent financing for first time home buyers. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated 

in May 2017, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a 

smaller loan and have a lower credit score, a higher LTV and slightly lower DTI, thus requiring a higher interest 

rate.

22

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount

($ Thousands) 193.3 214.8 235.6 286.7 140.0 147.7 196.0 238.8

Credit Score 676.1 682.2 697.7 725.4 693.1 690.1 682.0 700.0

LTV (%) 97.2 96.0 99.8 96.5 99.4 100.0 98.0 96.5

DTI (%) 41.8 42.6 39.6 41.1 34.9 35.4 40.7 41.6

Loan Rate (%) 4.31 4.27 4.12 4.02 4.20 4.29 4.27 4.17

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017.
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2015.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0

3

0

0-5

0

0

5

0

0-5

2

0

5

2

0-5

4

0

5

4

0-5

6

0

5

6

0-5

8

0

5

8

0-6

0

0

6

0

0-6

2

0

6

2

0-6

4

0

6

4

0-6

6

0

6

6

0-6

8

0

6

8

0-7

0

0

7

0

0-7

2

0

7

2

0-7

4

0

7

4

0-7

6

0

7

6

0-7

8

0

7

8

0-8

0

0

8

0

0-8

2

0

8

2

0-8

5

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 501 523 575 675 770 812 821 839

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

306 564 609 676 749 800 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (675) is lower than the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (676).

23
t,

rtgages,

house

mortg

$9,833

hold

Deb

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 314,094 644 678 727 774 797 723 

Fannie 115,164 686 720 758 787 802 750 

Freddie 67,061 687 719 758 786 801 750 

Ginnie 131,869 626 648 680 722 767 687 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 164,683 643 680 724 770 796 721 

Fannie 75,355 661 697 739 779 800 734 

Freddie 43,208 666 699 740 778 799 735 

Ginnie 46,120 616 646 681 724 770 685 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 478,777 643 679 726 772 797 722 

Fannie 190,519 674 709 751 784 801 744 

Freddie 110,269 677 709 751 783 801 744 

Ginnie 177,989 624 647 680 723 767 687 

 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 131,869 626 648 680 722 767 687 

FHA 84,156 623 644 672 707 746 678 

VA 35,319 633 662 707 761 633 662 

Other 12,394 639 657 688 728 763 692 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 46,120 616 646 681 724 770 685 

FHA 25,068 606 636 668 704 745 671 

VA 20,713 629 661 700 748 786 703 

Other 339 621 655 697 743 779 697 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 177,989 624 647 680 723 767 687 

FHA 109,224 620 643 671 707 746 676 

VA 56,032 632 661 704 756 790 707 

Other 12,733 639 657 688 729 764 693 

May 2017 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of May 2017.

In May 2017, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 680 versus 751 for Fannie and Freddie. Note that the FICO 

score for the 10th percentile was 624 for Ginnie Mae, versus 674 for Fannie and 677 for Freddie. Within the Ginnie 

Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 671, VA loans have a median FICO score of 701 and other loans 

have a median FICO score of 688.

24
May 2017 Credit Box at a Glance

old

Debt,

househ

mortgag

$9,833

ges,

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 314,094 74.0 80.0 95.0 98.2 100.0 88.6 

Fannie 115,164 63.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 81.9 

Freddie 67,061 65.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 81.8 

Ginnie 131,869 94.4 98.2 98.2 100.0 102.0 97.5

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 164,683 45.0 60.0 75.0 84.0 94.0 71.3 

Fannie 75,355 41.0 55.0 69.0 79.0 80.0 65.6 

Freddie 43,208 41.0 56.0 70.0 79.0 81.0 66.2 

Ginnie 46,120 67.1 80.4 86.5 95.8 100.0 85.2 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 478,777 57.0 75.0 85.0 97.0 99.0 82.3 

Fannie 190,519 50.0 66.0 80.0 90.0 95.0 75.1 

Freddie 110,269 50.0 67.0 80.0 89.0 95.0 75.2 

Ginnie 177,989 82.1 92.7 98.2 99.0 101.0 94.1 

 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 131,869 94.4 98.2 98.2 100.0 102.0 97.5 

FHA 84,156 95.0 98.2 98.2 98.2 98.2 96.9 

VA 35,319 91.1 100.0 100.0 102.2 103.3 98.3 

Other 12,394 95.6 99.2 101.0 101.0 102.0 99.5 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 46,120 67.1 80.4 86.5 95.8 100.0 85.2 

FHA 25,068 67.0 79.6 86.5 89.5 96.9 83.1 

VA 20,713 67.1 81.5 90.6 99.4 100.6 87.6

Other 339 81.6 90.4 97.8 101.0 101.9 94.0 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 177,989 82.1 92.7 98.2 99.0 101.0 94.1 

FHA 109,224 83.4 92.8 98.2 98.2 98.2 93.7 

VA 56,032 78.0 90.0 100.0 101.0 103.0 93.9 

Other 12,733 95.0 99.2 101.0 101.0 102.0 99.4 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA and VA loans. This new issuer-reported 

LTV includes the upfront mortgage insurance premium, and thus is higher than the previously reported LTV. Data as of May 2017.

In May 2017, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 98.2 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 80.0 percent for Fannie Mae 

and Freddie Mac. The 10th percentile was 82.1 percent for Ginnie Mae and 50.0 percent for the GSEs. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market,the median LTV was 98.2 for FHA, 100.0 for VA and 101.0 for other lending programs.

25
Debt,

rtgages,

hous

mort

$9,833

ehold

40.7 

35.3 

34.6 

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

36.9 

All 314,094 24.0 31.0 38.4 44.0 49.0 

Mean

Fannie 115,164 22.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 45.0 

39.8 

Freddie 67,061 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 45.0 

35.5 

Ginnie 131,869 28.1 34.7 41.6 47.9 53.0 

34.6 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

All 164,683 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 48.0 36.0 

Mean

Fannie 75,355 21.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 45.0 

40.9 

Freddie 43,208 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 46.0 

35.2 

Ginnie 46,120 25.3 32.8 40.8 47.6 52.7 

34.5 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

37.4 

All 478,777 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 48.8 

Mean

Fannie 190,519 22.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 45.0 

Freddie 110,269 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 46.0 

Ginnie 177,989 27.6 34.3 41.4 47.8 53.0 

 

34.9 

39.8 

41.7 

40.7

Mean

32.2 

38.8 

40.7 

39.8 

Mean

35.0 

40.3 

42.0 

40.9 

Mean

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

All 131,869 28.1 34.7 41.6 47.9 53.0 

FHA 84,156 29.3 35.9 43.0 48.9 53.6 

VA 35,319 26.7 33.7 40.9 47.4 52.7 

Other 12,394 25.6 30.5 35.9 40.2 43.1 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

All 46,120 25.3 32.8 40.8 47.6 52.7 

FHA 25,068 26.8 34.1 42.0 48.3 53.0 

VA 20,713 24.0 31.5 39.6 46.6 52.3 

Other 339 16.8 23.7 30.8 39.0 48.0 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

All 177,989 27.6 34.3 41.4 47.8 53.0

FHA 109,224 28.8 35.6 42.8 48.8 53.5 

VA 56,032 25.9 33.0 40.5 47.2 52.6 

Other 12,733 25.3 30.4 35.8 40.1 43.1 

May 2017 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of May 2017.

In May 2017, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 41.4 percent, considerably higher than the 36 

and 37 percent median DTIs for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 

53.0 percent, also much higher than the 45-46 percent DTIs for the GSEs. Fannie Mae has recently announced they 

will raise their DTI limit from 45 to 50. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 42.7 percent, 

versus 40.5 percentfor VA and 35.8 percentfor other lending programs.

26
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO

27

Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

751

680

726

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of May 2017 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017

This figure, showing median FICO scores since October 2013, demonstrates that the median FICO score for 

Ginnie Mae has always been considerably lower than for the GSEs. The difference between Ginnie Mae and 

GSE FICO scores is wider in purchase loans than in refi loans. The recent drop in FICO scores reflects two 

factors: (1) the composition of the market has shifted more heavily toward purchase borrowers who have 

lower FICO scores and (2) FICO scores have dropped sharply for refinance borrowers, indicating that lenders 

are willing to spend the time to refinance more marginal borrowers, as overall volumes slip.
Credit Box: Historical

80.0

98.2

85.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

28

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

LTV Ratio for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

LTV Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5, much higher than the 75-80 average for 

the GSEs. Through time, refinances have LTVs about 10 points lower than their purchase counterparts. The 

uptick in Ginnie Mae LTVs in May 2017 reflects the change in Ginnie Mae data disclosure source to issuerreported LTV that now includes the upfront mortgage insurance premium for FHA and VA loans.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA and VA loans. This new issuerreported LTV includes the upfront mortgage insurance premium, and thus is higher than the previously reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all 

three graphs. Data as of May 2017.
Credit Box: Historical

37.0

36.0

41.4

38.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

35.0

36.0

37.0

38.0

39.0

40.0

41.0

42.0

Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

29

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

DTI Ratio for Refinance Loans 

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

DTI Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of May 2017

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note:Data as of May 2017

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note:Data as of May 2017

Median debt-to-income ratios on Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher 

than the 36-37 percent DTIs for the GSEs. The DTIs for refinance loans have historically been much lower than 

for purchase loans, but the DTIs for refinance loans have been creeping up sharply in recent months.
Ginnie Mae Non-bank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of May 2017.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of May 2017.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of May 2017.

The non-bank originator share of the Ginnie Mae market edged up to 77 percent in May 2017, after an dip in 

April. The non-bank share of VA issuance stood at 68% in May, while the non-bank share of FHA issuance 

stood at 82 percent, and the non-bank share of Other issuance stood at 79 percent.

30

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

82%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Share: Refi

Loans

All FHA VA Other

77%

79%

68%
All Ginnie Mae FICO

 

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

694

All 162,641 624 647 680 723 767

689

Bank 37,219 639 661 697 745 784

693

Non-Bank

Mean

701

125,422 622 644 676 716 760

720

FHA Ginnie Mae FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

707

All 101,398 620 643 671 707 746

Mean

Bank 18,882 635 655 683 719 758

Non-Bank 673

689

676

82,516 618 640 668 703 742

Mean

VA Ginnie Mae FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

682

All 50,161 632 661 704 756 790

702

Bank 15,836 644 675 720 770 796

687

Non-Bank

Mean

34,325 627 656 697 748 786

Other Ginnie Mae FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

All 11,082 639 657 688 729 764

Bank 2,501 618 653 692 742 776

Non-Bank 8,581 641 658 688 726 760

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Originators: 

May 2017 Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of May 2017.

An analysis of recent origination suggests that non-bank originators have considerably lower median borrower FICO 

scores than do bank originators. Overall, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score is 680-- it is 697 for bank borrowers 

versus 676 for non-bank borrowers. For FHA borrowers, the median FICO score for bank originators is 683 versus 

668 for non-banks. For VA borrowers, the median FICO score for bank originators is 720 versus 697 for non-banks. 

For “Other” loans, the median FICO score for bank originators is 692 versus 688 for non-banks.

31
All Ginnie Mae LTV

 

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

99.0

All 162,641 82.0 92.6 98.2 99.0 101.0

100.7

Bank 37,219 83.3 95.6 98.2 100.0 102.2

99.4

Non-Bank

Mean

93.9

125,422 81.8 91.6 98.2 98.2 101.0

93.9

FHA Ginnie Mae LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

93.9

All 101,398 83.3 92.7 98.2 98.2 98.2

Mean

Bank 18,882 86.5 96.5 98.2 98.2 99.0

Non-Bank 93.3

95.1

93.6

82,516 82.4 91.6 98.2 98.2 98.2

Mean

VA Ginnie Mae LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

93.9

All 50,161 78.0 90.0 100.0 101.0 103.0

95.0

Bank 15,836 76.8 90.8 100.0 100.5 103.0

94.1

Non-Bank

Mean

34,325 78.4 90.0 100.0 101.0 102.4

Other Ginnie Mae LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

All 11,082 95.0 99.2 101.0 101.0 102.0

Bank 2,501 97.8 101.0 101.0 102.0 104.0

Non-Bank 8,581 94.5 98.8 100.9 101.0 101.0

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Originators: 

May 2017 Credit Box

An analysis of the loans backing Ginnie Mae origination indicates that there are virtually no differences in median 

LTV ratios between bank originated loans and non-bank originated loans. Mean LTVs for banks are actually 

marginally higher than their non-bank counterparts.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In 

May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA and VA loans. This new issuer-reported LTV includes the upfront mortgage 

insurance premium, and thus is higher than the previously reported LTV. Data as of May 2017. 

32
All Ginnie Mae DTI

 

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

35.0 

All 162,641 27.6 34.3 41.4 47.8 53.0 

34.8 

Bank 37,219 26.1 33.0 40.3 46.2 51.7 

34.9 

Non-Bank

Mean

40.4 

125,422 28.0 34.7 41.8 48.2 53.3 

38.7 

FHA Ginnie Mae DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

39.8 

All 101,398 28.8 35.6 42.8 48.8 53.5 

Mean

Bank 18,882 28.0 34.7 41.7 47.0 52.2 

Non-Bank 42.0 

40.6 

41.7 

82,516 29.1 35.9 43.1 49.1 53.8 

Mean

VA Ginnie Mae DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

41.1 

All 50,161 25.9 33.0 40.5 47.2 52.6 

39.4 

Bank 15,836 24.6 31.7 39.3 46.2 51.8 

40.7 

Non-Bank

Mean

34,325 26.8 33.7 41.1 47.7 52.9 

Other Ginnie Mae DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90

All 11,082 25.3 30.4 35.8 40.1 43.1 

Bank 2,501 23.8 29.6 35.9 40.6 43.8 

Non-Bank 8,581 25.6 30.5 35.8 40.1 42.9 

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Originators: 

May 2017 Credit Box

An analysis of the borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates the former are very slightly 

more conservative. That is, the median DTI ratio for bank originators is 40.3, versus 41.8 for non-banks. The only 

exception is for “Other” loans, for which the median DTI ratio for banks is marginally higher than for non-banks.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of May 2017.

33
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Historical Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of May 2017

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development.

Data as of May 2017.

The difference in FICO scores between loans originated by banks and non-banks has widened for Ginnie Mae 

loans in May 2017, as the median FICO scores for bank originators stabilized while the median FICO scores for 

non-bank originators continued to decline for the FHA and VA channels.

660

665

670

675

680

685

690

695

700

705

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

34

660

665

670

675

680

685

690

695

700

705

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of May 2017 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of May 2017
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

35

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

13%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae securities were lower than on GSE securities from 2011 through mid-2013, but have 

been higher since. These differences hold across all coupon buckets. The differences are especially pronounced on 

more recent production. These increased Ginnie speeds reflect the growing share of VA loans, which prepay at 

faster speeds than FHA loans. This also reflects the fact that FHA streamlined refinances apply to a wide range of 

borrowers and unlike GSE streamlined refinances, requires no credit report and no appraisal. Some of the upfront 

mortgage insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. Moreover, FHA permits refinancing of 

existing mortgages after 6 months, while the GSEs do not allow refinancing for a year. With the increase in interest 

rates since November 2016, the prepayment speeds for all agencies have slowed down considerably. The rates 

have stabilized and declined slightly since March, and the speeds continued to increase in June, reflecting both this 

decline in rates and a normal seasonal uptick.

17%

15%

12%

11%
Prepayments

11%

16%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2013 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

36

Freddie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2012 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

The 2013 Ginnie II 3.0s are prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts. 2012 Ginnie II 3.5s have been 

faster since mid-2013. The differences accelerated in 2015—potentially due to the FHA mortgage insurance 

premium (MIP) cut. In January 2015 FHA lowered its MIPs from 135 basis points per annum to 85 basis points 

per annum; this gives 2012 and 2013 FHA mortgages taken out with MIPs of 125-135 bps a 40-50 basis point 

rate incentive that conventional mortgages do not have. GSE guarantee fees have gone up over that same period, 

creating a disincentive for conventional loans. Moreover, recent originations are more heavily VA loans, which 

are more prepayment responsive than either FHA or Conventional loans. After a sharp mortgage rate rise in 

November, the prepayment speeds of Ginnie and Conventional loans both fell sharply. The speeds ticked up for 

second consecutive month in June 2017, mostly due to the recent decline in rates and a normal seasonal uptick.

18%

13%
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR

37

Freddie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

The 2011 Ginnie II 4.0s and 4.5s have been prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts since late 

2013. Faster VA mortgage prepays plus simplifications to the FHA streamlined programs in 2013 are likely 

contributors to the faster speeds. However, as mortgage rates rose sharply since November 2016, the speeds 

for all agencies have slowed down considerably. The speeds trended up for all agencies for second consecutive 

month in June 2017, mostly due to the recent decline in rates and a normal seasonal uptick.

20%

15%

20%

17%
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.8

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

$1.8

Mar-17

May-17

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

Sources

Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017

$55.0

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

: 

$50

$60

Mar-17

May-17

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources

: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage volumes remain steady, with issuance of $0.8 billion in April. Outstanding 

securities totaled $55.0 billion in April.

38
Multifamily Market

$1.9

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Mar-17

May-17

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

Mae Mul di

: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017

$102.9

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Mar-17

May-17

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae M tifamily MBS Outstand ng

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volumes in May totaled $1.9 billion. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled

$102.9 billion in May.

39
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

$205 

$529 

$33 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

40

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.37%

3.80%

0.38%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Average Daily Turnover by Sector

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume and turnover in 2017 has been slightly more robust than in the 2014-2015 period, 

and slightly less robust than 2016. In the first six months of 2017, daily MBS turnover was 3.39 percent versus 

3.55 percent in 2016 and 3.34 percent in 2015. Note that average daily Treasury turnover is also down 

dramatically from its 2005 peak. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury 

turnover.

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017
Market Conditions

Bil

$215.6

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

lions $ Billi

Repo Volume: Securities In

41

$65.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

ns Billio $

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

Dealer net positions in Agency MBS are currently within the recent range, although gross positions may well 

be down more. The volume of repurchase activity is down sharply. This reflects banks cutting back on lower 

margin businesses.
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual 

Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2017.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + agency debt) include the Federal Reserve (21 percent), 

commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (11 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares are a 

fraction of what they once were.

% of Total Agency 

Debt by Owner

42
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household

$9,833

mortgages,

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2017.

72.0%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2017

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, less agency debt is required to fund that activity, 

hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. For Q1 2017, the MBS share of total agency debt stood at 72.0 

percent. Commercial banks are the second largest holders of Agency MBS behind the Federal Reserve. Out of their 

$1.8 trillion in holdings as of the end of May, $1.3 trillion of it was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

43

Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Jun-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jun 7 Jun 14 Jun 21 Jun 28

Largest Domestic 

Banks 1160.9 1216.9 1223.6 1229.2 1231.4 1239.7 1258.2 1273.9 1263.6 1276.6 1274.2 1279.8

Small Domestic 

Banks 436.3 452.3 457.4 458.7 461.4 463.7 467.2 468.2 466.5 468.2 467.2 470.3

Foreign Related 

Banks 14 12.5 12.7 13 13 12.6 11.8 12.9 12.5 13 13.1 13

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1611.2 1681.7 1693.7 1700.9 1705.8 1716 1737.2 1755 1742.6 1757.8 1754.5 1763.1
MBS Ownership

o

Debt,

househ ld

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $310,551 $177,393 $118,070 $14,440 $648 17.6%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $207,152 $163,855 $30,559 $5,378 $7,360 11.8%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $104,125 $69,311 $21,024 $628 $13,162 5.9%

4 U S. Bancorp. $79,237 $29,118 $10,521 $39,597 $2 4.5%

5 Charles Schwab Bank $63,351 $38,097 $9,533 $15,721 $0 3.6%

6 Citi Group Inc. $60,717 $45,874 $331 $9,241 $5,271 3.4%

7 Capital One Financial Corporation $51,675 $17,844 $9,995 $22,124 $1,751 2.9%

8 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $50,209 $30,533 $2,066 $15,060 $2,550 2.8%

9 PNC Bank, National Association $41,956 $29,782 $5,180 $3,601 $3,393 2.4%

10 Branch Banking and Trust Company $34,897 $9,732 $3,563 $20,959 $643 2.0%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $29,920 $3,852 $6,777 $10,253 $9,038 1.7%

Morgan Stanley $25,059 $10,084 $6,669 $8,306 $0 1.4%

12 KeyBank National Association $24,692 $1,003 $1,339 $22,350 $0 1.4%

SunTrust Bank $22,399 $12,125 $10,201 $0.4 $71 1.3%

13 HSBC Bank USA, National Association $20,843 $7,468 $5,338 $8,022 $6 1.2%

16 E*TRADE Bank $20,581 $11,650 $3,966 $4,966 $0 1.2%

17 Regions Bank $18,641 $11,112 $5,495 $2,030 $4 1.1%

18 Fifth Third Bank $16,244 $3,735 $3,951 $8,558 $0 0.9%

19 MUFG Union Bank, National Association $16,044 $5,340 $4,963 $5,314 $427 0.9%

20 Santander Bank, N.A. $15,671 $3,718 $3,413 $8,541 $0 0.9%

Total Top 20 $1,213,964 $681,626 $262,954 $225,089 $44,326 68.90%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2017

Out of the $1.8 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts, $1.3 trillion is in agency pass-through form: $950.7 

billion in GSE pass-throughs and $329.9 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. There are another $419.3 billion in 

Agency CMOs. Non-agency holdings total $62.4 billion. Ginnie Mae pass-throughs have been the fastest growing 

sector in the past 2 years. Bank and thrift holdings of MBS are very concentrated, with the top 20 holders 

accounting for 69 percent of the total, and the top 5 holders accounting for 43 percent of the total.

44

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15

1Q14 $1,574.44 $1,029.68 $713.50 $232.44 $500.09 $27.08 $104.97

2Q14 $1,526.12 $951.82 $717.27 $232.75 $445.17 $24.72 $104.41

3Q14 $1,534.59 $951.99 $725.96 $226.03 $447.46 $21.89 $113.24

4Q14 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94

1Q15 $1,579.21 $1,012.26 $767.71 $244.55 $455.47 $17.70 $93.78

2Q15 $1,583.22 $1,032.26 $784.22 $248.05 $445.91 $16.47 $88.57

3Q15 $1,608.44 $1,064.67 $805.05 $259.62 $447.01 $13.60 $83.16

4Q15 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63

1Q16 $1,660.58 $1,133.29 $833.25 $300.04 $448.63 $10.27 $68.39 

2Q 16 $1,684.33 $1,169.67 $867.64 $302.03 $440.25 $9.11 $65.29

3Q16 $1,732.36 $1,227.52 $924.81 $302.71 $435.77 $7.90 $61.17

4Q16 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings
MBS Ownership

$847.0

$383.0

$463.9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official Foreign Private

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2017.

Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of Q1 2017.

45

14.0%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

Foreign investors hold 14.0 percent of agency MBS, up considerably from the lows in 2013. For the month of 

February, this represents $847.0 billion in agency MBS, $383.0 billion held by official institutions and $463.9 

billion held by private investors.
MBS Ownership

Level of Holdings ($ Millions) Change in Holdings ($ Millions)

Country Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017

Taiwan 207,000 208,352 204,005 212,482 1,352 -4,347 8,477

China 196,000 191,743 184,151 187,664 -4,257 -7,592 3,513

Japan 197,000 222,116 220,644 215,327 25,116 -1,472 -5,317

Ireland 48,000 48,307 47,065 46,194 307 -1,242 -871

Luxembourg 32,000 32,549 35,352 29,119 549 2,803 -6,233

Cayman Islands 31,000 30,686 30,186 29,012 -314 -500 -1,174

Switzerland 17,000 20,638 15,626 15,917 3,638 -5,012 291

United Kingdom 10,000 10,520 9,578 9,335 520 -942 -243

Canada 6,000 6,578 5,047 5,250 578 -1,531 203

Belgium 5,000 4,336 4,597 4,712 -664 261 115

Rest of World 206,000 208,604 208,353 189,413 2,604 -251 -18,940

Total 955,000 984,429 964,604 944,425 29,429 -19,825 -20,179

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

*calculated based on June 2016 report with amount asset 

backed per country

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of March 2017.

The single largest foreign holders of agency MBS are Taiwan, China and Japan; these three countries comprise 

around 70 percent of all foreign holdings. Since June of 2016, we estimate Taiwan and Japan have expanded their 

holdings while China has contracted. Our estimates indicate that Japan has been the single largest buyer of MBS 

between June 2016 and March 2017, adding $23 billion over the 9-month period.

46

Level of Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017

Taiwan 207,000 208,352 204,005 212,482 1,352 -4,347 8,477

China 187,000 184,579 179,137 185,778 -2,421 -5,442 6,641

Japan 185,000 207,491 207,653 207,776 22,491 162 124

Ireland 38,000 38,551 37,765 37,912 551 -787 148

Luxembourg 27,000 27,660 30,260 25,434 660 2,600 -4,825

Cayman Islands 23,000 22,922 22,667 22,205 -78 -254 -463

Switzerland 12,000 15,188 11,020 11,570 3,188 -4,167 550

United Kingdom 8,000 8,502 7,756 7,722 502 -746 -33

Canada 4,000 4,526 3,252 3,518 526 -1,274 266

Belgium 2,000 1,467 1,713 1,901 -533 246 188

Rest of World 139,000 142,457 143,461 130,681 3,457 1,004 -12,779

Total 832,000 861,694 848,688 846,981 29,694 -13,006 -1,707
MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

47

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

0

50

100

150

200

250

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of May 2017.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of May 2017.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-11

Aug-11

Nov-11

Feb-12

May-12

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

In October 2014, the Fed ended its purchase program, but continued buying at a significantly reduced level, 

reinvesting funds from pay downs on mortgages and agency debt into the mortgage market. Since then, the Fed’s 

absorption of gross issuance has been between 20 and 30 percent; it was 23.9 percent for May 2017. During this 

month, the Fed has been buying Ginnie Mae securities and GSE securities at similar rates. Over the past year, the 

Fed has absorbed an average of 25.2 percent of GSE issuance and 25.8 percent of Ginnie Mae issuance. In their 

June 2017 meeting, the Fed announced a portfolio wind down strategy for both MBS and Treasury's that is 

expected to be implemented later this year.
All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise noted. The

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

The views expressed in this material are the views of Urban Institute and State Street Global Advisors as

of July 15, 2017 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document

contains certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such

statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ

materially from those projected.   

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