Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 5

Global 10-year treasury yields 6

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 7-9

Ginnie Mae yield spreads - Intermediate Credit 10

MBS yield per duration 11

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 12 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 13

National HPI, HPI by state 13-14 

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 15

FHA and VA Outstanding Loan Count Maps 16

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 17

Outstanding Agency MBS 18

Origination volume over time 19

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 20-22 

Purchase versus refi: Refi Issuance Breakdown 23 

Credit Box 

First time homebuyer share—purchase only loans 24-25

FICO score distribution 26

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 27-29

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 30-31

Cumulative Default Rates: FHA and VA 32

High LTV credit box 33-34

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 35-36

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 37-40

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 41-42

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 42

Prepayments 

Aggregate 43

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 44-46

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 47

Multifamily 48

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 49

Dealer net positions, repo volume 50

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 51

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 52

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 53

Foreign ownership of MBS 54-55

Fed Ownership of MBS 56

CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS

A Closer Look at Loans Removed from Ginnie Mae MBS Pools

Since the beginning of the pandemic there has been a large increase in the number of loans removed from 

Ginnie Mae MBS pools. Ginnie Mae releases detailed loan data that can be instructive in understanding 

the reason behind the removals. Broadly speaking, loans can be removed from pools for the following 

reasons: Mortgagor Payoff (i.e. refinance), delinquent loan buyout, completion of foreclosure, and loss 

mitigation. As a reminder, Ginnie Mae’s policy allows issuers an option to purchase seriously delinquent 

loans from MBS pools at a price equal to the remaining loan balance plus accrued interest. 

Figure 1 shows the monthly count of FHA and VA loans removed from pools in 2020. This number was 

quite stable during the pre-pandemic period of January to March, generally ranging from 175,000 to 

190,000 loans per month. It increased substantially in July to nearly 370,000 loans to coincide with several 

depository issuers electing the buyout option, but has trended down ever since. Note that the increase was 

driven primarily by FHA loans, which have a higher delinquency rate than VA loans (page 13.) The number 

of VA loans removed from pools is also up slightly driven mostly by a large increase refinance activity and 

to a much lesser extent by increased buyout activity since July. 

Figure 1: FHA and VA Loans removed from GNMA pools (Number of loans)

Source: eMBS and Urban Institute

Further insights can be gleaned by breaking this data out by removal reason, i.e. liquidation type. While 

delinquent buyouts have been prominently discussed in recent months, the Figure 2 shows that vast 

majority of loans removed from pools have in fact been refinances. With the exception of July and August, 

well over 80 percent – and in some months over 90 percent – of removals have been refinances triggered 

by steep declines in mortgage rates in 2020. The share of buyouts ranged from 5 to 10 percent of all 

liquidations until May this year. After hitting a peak of 34 percent in July, it fell to 14 percent in September 

and October. While loans bought out for loss mitigation comprised a tiny fraction, generally 1.5 to 2 

percent of monthly liquidations, this number could rise after March or April of next year when the first 

wave of 12- month forbearance plans expire.

Figure 2: FHA and VA removed from pools, by liquidation type

Source: eMBS and Urban Institute

 -

 100,000

 200,000

 300,000

 400,000

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

VA FHA

 -

 100,000

 200,000

 300,000

 400,000

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Mortgagor Payoff Delinquent Buyout Loss Mitigation Other
• The first time homebuyer (FTHB) share of VA purchase lending fell to 50.4 percent in September

2020, the lowest level since October 2015. This reflects a bigger increase in VA repeat buyers than

FTHBs YTD 2020 (page 25).

• The nonbank share of agency originations reached new records in September 2020, with Fannie’s

share reaching 70.6 percent, Freddie’s 70.4 percent, and Ginnie Mae’s 91.7 percent (page 35).

• The difference between bank and nonbank median FICO scores in the agency space has narrowed

considerably (to 11 points) in 2020. This reflects substantial increase in nonbank FICOs, whose

volume is more refinance heavy than banks (page 37).

HIGHLIGHTS

Finally, we look at the breakout of loans removed from pools by coupon. Figure 3 shows the liquidation 

composition for two Ginnie Mae coupon buckets: <3.5 percent and => 3.5 percent. As before, refinances have 

comprised vast majority of liquidations in both coupon buckets. The larger number of loans in the => 3.5 

percent reflects the larger size of this coupon bucket going into 2020. This is also one of the likely reasons 

why delinquent buyout activity was much more concentrated in this coupon bucket. 

The decline in buyout activity since September reflects the partial impact of Ginnie Mae’s new policy 

disallowing delinquent loans that are bought out from being re-pooled into Ginnie II TBA pools. Additionally, 

much of the increase in buyout activity over summer was driven by depository issuers opting to repurchase. 

As a result, the overwhelming majority of remaining buyout-eligible loans are serviced by non-depositories. 

Because of their higher capital costs and focus on preserving liquidity, non-depositories have shown less 

inclination to exercise the buyout option. While future buyout activity is inherently unpredictable, Ginnie 

Mae’s new policy on the pooling of re-performing loans and the heavier non-depository footprint could help 

mitigate any potential increases. 

Figure 3: Loans Removed from Pools, by liquidation type and coupon

Source: eMBS and Urban Institute

Highlights this month:

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

<3.5 Other

<3.5 Loss Mitigation

<3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

<3.5 Mortgagor Payoff

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

>=3.5 Other

>=3.5 Loss Mitigation

>=3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

>=3.5 Mortgagor Payoff
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 28 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index—less 

than either the US Treasury share (37 percent) or the US Credit share (32 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

accounts for 10 percent of the overall index, the largest MBS component, while Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie 

Mac 30-year MBS both comprise 7 of the market. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the remaining 

balance (4 percent) of the Barclays US Aggregate Index. US securities are the single largest contributor to the 

Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 37 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 10 percent of the global 

aggregate. 

37%

2%

32%

7%

10%

7%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

53%

9%

25%

10%

1%

2%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2%

3% 1%

37%

30%

21%

1% 0.04%

2%

0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Note: Numbers in chart may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of September 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of September 2020.

5
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2020.

After experiencing COVID-19 related volatility in March and April of this year, government bond yields across 

the globe stabilized. The United States stood out from the pack in October, with the yield on the 10-year 

treasury increasing by 19 bps to 0.87 percent, surpassing Italy for the highest spot in the developed world. The 

yield on the Italian 10-year note, which has been an outlier for much of 2020, fell by 11 bps to 0.76 percent. The 

yield on the UK 10-year bond and the Japanese 10-year government bond both grew by a modest 3 bps in 

October, to 0.26 and 0.04 percent, respectively. The German 10-year yield fell by 11 bps to negative 0.63 

percent in October. At the end of October, the hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury and the 

10-year JGB stood at 29 bps, a widening of 21 bps since September 2020. The hedged yield differential between

the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year Bund stood at 61 bps, an expansion of 31 bps since the end of September

2020.

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

6
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Nominal yields fell in October 2020, with GNMA II yields decreasing 4 bps to 1.24 percent and GNMA I yields 

down 5 bps to 1.39 percent. At the end of October, current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their 

Treasury counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 10-year Treasury yields) by 61 bps on the G2SF and 

76 bps on the GNSF, a decrease of 19 and 20 bps, respectively, since last month. 

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

7
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2020.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Japanese Yen, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the JGB 5/10 

blend at the end of October. More precisely, hedged into Japanese yen, the G2SF and GNSF have a 73 and 88 bp

yield versus the JGB 5/10 blend. This represents a 2 bp tightening for G2SF and a 3 bp tightening for GNSF since 

the end of September 2020.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

8
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2020.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Euros, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the German 5/10 

Blend. The figures below show that at the end of October, the current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into 

euros have a 107 and 123 bp higher yield than the average of the German 5/10, respectively. This represents an 

8 and 6 bp widening for the G2SF and GNSF, respectively, since the end of last month. 

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

9
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 May-20 Oct-20

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2020.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 May-20 Oct-20

U.S. Intermediate Credit - OAS US GNMA 30yr II - OAS

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Spread between Intermediate credit and 30-year GNMA MBS OAS

G2 30 MBS versus Intermediate Credit

After tightening steadily from mid-2016 to January 2020, the spread between US Intermediate Credit and GNMA II 

30 year OAS skyrocketed in February 2020 in response to the COVID-19 panic. This was followed by substantial 

tightening over the period of March-October 2020. The OAS on intermediate credit partially recovered from its 

enormous widening early in the year, while the Ginnie Mae II 30-year fell to multi-year lows. Despite this tightening, 

the spread between the two remains much elevated, ending October 2020 at 91 basis points in comparison to 21 

basis points at the end of January, reflecting heightened investor concern about corporate credit risk.

10
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of October 2020.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most government securities with the same or longer durations. 

The only asset classes with significantly more yield are the US and Pan-Euro high yield and credit indices. 

Duration, a measure of sensitivity to interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield 

asset classes, as there is a large credit component, which has moved front and center in light of COVID-19. 

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 5.0 0.39

US 10y 9.5 0.88

GNMA II 3.0% 3.5 1.01

GNMA II 3.5% 2.3 1.42

JPY 5y 4.9 -0.10

JPY 10y 9.9 0.04

GER 5y 5.0 -0.82

GER 10y 9.9 -0.63

ITA 5y 5.2 0.19

ITA 10y 9.9 0.76

US credit 8.3 1.94

US credit >= A 8.1 1.54

US HY 3.9 5.78

Pan-Euro Corp 5.8 0.64

Pan-Euro HY 3.9 4.71

US 5y US 10y

G2 3.5%

G2 3.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration

11
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.28 0.57 0.61 0.13 0.37 0.03

3 year 0.28 0.43 0.52 0.21 0.38 0.16

5 year 0.22 0.30 0.49 0.20 0.54 0.29

10 year 0.23 0.26 0.43 0.35 0.53 0.49

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.24 0.53 0.57 0.18 0.32 0.08

3 year 0.16 0.31 0.40 0.26 0.26 0.21

5 year 0.13 0.21 0.40 0.26 0.45 0.35

10 year 0.18 0.21 0.38 0.38 0.48 0.52

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.54 1.40 3.00 2.74 4.27 4.76

3 year 0.66 1.24 1.97 1.63 2.63 2.83

5 year 0.60 1.14 1.66 1.41 2.28 2.36

10 year 0.64 1.05 1.46 1.37 2.02 2.02

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.44 0.38 0.19 0.07 0.08 0.02

3 year 0.24 0.25 0.20 0.16 0.10 0.08

5 year 0.22 0.19 0.24 0.18 0.20 0.15

10 year 0.29 0.20 0.26 0.27 0.24 0.26

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of October 2020.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade is less than other indices. However, the 

standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least price volatility over a 1, 

3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of risk for the Ginnie Mae index is 

highest among all asset classes over 1 and 10-year horizons and second highest over 3 and 5-year horizons.

12
2.65%

2.48%

7.96%

3.98%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4Q063Q072Q081Q094Q093Q102Q111Q124Q123Q132Q141Q154Q153Q162Q171Q184Q183Q192Q20

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q2 2020.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

State of the US Housing Market

4.4%

4.7%

4.1%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Sep-01

Mar-02

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Bottom price tier Middle price tier Top price tier

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: Black Knight divides home prices in each region into quintiles; this figure shows the performance of the 

bottom, middle and top quintiles. Data as of September 2020.

Serious delinquency rates for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans and VA loans spiked in Q2 2020, reflecting the 

impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These delinquency numbers include loans in COVID-19 forbearance. The bottom 

chart shows nationwide house prices for the bottom, middle and the top quintiles by price. House prices have risen 

most at the lower end of the market where Ginnie Mae plays a major role. Prices at the lower end of the market rose 

by 4.7 percent for 12 months ended September 2020, higher than the 4.1 percent for the top end of the market. 

Year-over-year price growth in September was lower than in August for all price tiers. 

13
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of September 2020. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month 

when HPI reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell 

to the lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 09/2020, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 59.8 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis 

peak valuation on a nominal basis by 19.5 percent. The picture is very different across states, with many states well in 

excess of the prior peak, while Connecticut remains 10.7 percent below peak level.

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 74.9% -25.2% 59.8% 4.0% 19.5%

Alabama 36.1% -15.4% 36.5% 4.7% 15.5%

Alaska 69.5% -3.0% 26.5% 2.9% 22.6%

Arizona 109.9% -47.8% 92.8% 5.8% 0.6%

Arkansas 41.4% -9.8% 28.7% 3.6% 16.2%

California 154.7% -43.3% 97.6% 4.0% 12.1%

Colorado 40.3% -12.9% 86.2% 3.9% 62.2%

Connecticut 92.2% -24.7% 18.6% 3.1% -10.7%

Delaware 94.6% -23.5% 35.0% 4.5% 3.3%

District of Columbia 174.4% -13.7% 62.0% 5.2% 39.9%

Florida 128.2% -46.8% 79.9% 5.5% -4.3%

Georgia 38.4% -31.3% 71.1% 3.9% 17.5%

Hawaii 163.1% -22.5% 57.3% 4.3% 21.9%

Idaho 71.9% -28.7% 100.6% 7.5% 43.0%

Illinois 61.6% -34.4% 41.1% 1.7% -7.4%

Indiana 21.5% -7.9% 41.3% 3.4% 30.2%

Iowa 28.2% -4.7% 30.4% 2.1% 24.3%

Kansas 34.6% -9.1% 50.5% 5.9% 36.7%

Kentucky 29.6% -7.5% 36.5% 3.3% 26.3%

Louisiana 48.7% -5.1% 26.7% 3.0% 20.2%

Maine 82.0% -12.4% 46.8% 5.4% 28.7%

Maryland 129.2% -28.6% 31.3% 3.2% -6.2%

Massachusetts 92.3% -22.4% 60.6% 3.7% 24.6%

Michigan 23.8% -39.3% 82.3% 2.9% 10.7%

Minnesota 66.4% -27.7% 61.8% 3.6% 17.0%

Mississippi 41.0% -13.8% 32.2% 4.3% 14.0%

Missouri 42.6% -15.3% 41.2% 3.2% 19.6%

Montana 82.3% -11.3% 59.2% 4.5% 41.2%

Nebraska 26.7% -6.7% 46.9% 3.1% 37.0%

Nevada 126.9% -59.0% 129.1% 4.3% -6.1%

New Hampshire 90.5% -23.1% 47.9% 4.6% 13.7%

New Jersey 117.7% -28.0% 31.6% 3.6% -5.2%

New Mexico 66.7% -16.3% 32.7% 6.5% 11.1%

New York 98.3% -15.2% 47.0% 4.3% 24.6%

North Carolina 40.6% -15.8% 42.9% 4.5% 20.3%

North Dakota 53.5% -4.0% 58.5% 3.1% 52.1%

Ohio 21.1% -18.3% 42.6% 3.4% 16.5%

Oklahoma 37.4% -2.5% 24.8% 4.5% 21.7%

Oregon 81.8% -28.0% 86.5% 3.9% 34.2%

Pennsylvania 70.0% -11.7% 28.7% 2.8% 13.6%

Rhode Island 130.4% -34.1% 61.3% 5.9% 6.3%

South Carolina 44.9% -19.4% 41.4% 4.4% 13.9%

South Dakota 45.3% -3.9% 52.4% 4.9% 46.5%

Tennessee 35.0% -11.9% 52.2% 5.0% 34.2%

Texas 33.5% -5.8% 56.4% 3.9% 47.3%

Utah 54.8% -22.1% 84.8% 5.4% 43.9%

Vermont 83.5% -7.5% 40.7% 4.4% 30.2%

Virginia 99.6% -22.8% 32.3% 4.0% 2.2%

Washington 85.1% -28.6% 97.7% 6.1% 41.1%

West Virginia 40.3% -5.9% 24.7% 0.4% 17.4%

Wisconsin 44.7% -16.4% 39.8% 1.9% 16.9%

Wyoming 77.6% -7.2% 39.2% 5.4% 29.1%

14
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg.

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000) GNMA Share GNMA Loan Count

GNMA Avg. 

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000)

National 27.5% 2,719,007 252.6 275.9 26.1% 11,255,805 164.8 198.2

Alabama 40.2% 49,777 194.2 218.8 40.3% 237,943 128.5 158.6

Alaska 49.6% 8,739 310.0 279.3 45.8% 37,704 229.9 205.6

Arizona 28.3% 102,897 247.3 254.6 25.0% 310,987 168.1 191.4

Arkansas 37.6% 26,330 165.8 197.6 40.0% 139,471 110.9 143.3

California 20.6% 252,431 390.7 384.7 16.7% 764,242 269.5 283.9

Colorado 26.9% 85,029 330.5 318.8 22.2% 234,627 227.7 242.5

Connecticut 27.1% 21,493 236.9 261.1 26.4% 108,593 180.8 192.7

Delaware 33.9% 12,055 239.0 256.8 32.6% 52,308 179.7 190.1

District of Columbia 15.2% 2,365 489.2 433.0 12.2% 9,529 296.9 318.2

Florida 37.8% 232,081 242.3 244.2 31.7% 852,796 170.6 180.7

Georgia 35.7% 123,896 215.2 248.0 33.9% 514,381 145.4 179.2

Hawaii 43.3% 12,004 552.6 441.0 25.9% 32,406 382.1 326.2

Idaho 26.3% 21,360 250.6 246.9 25.5% 77,476 161.3 184.4

Illinois 19.6% 75,108 201.4 234.4 21.5% 366,808 140.1 165.6

Indiana 29.3% 64,011 169.0 190.3 32.2% 301,379 111.6 133.6

Iowa 18.7% 16,918 171.1 195.6 22.1% 86,289 114.3 137.7

Kansas 27.6% 20,042 181.5 211.1 30.8% 103,642 119.6 146.2

Kentucky 32.6% 35,701 176.0 197.9 34.7% 168,600 121.3 139.2

Louisiana 37.5% 39,464 192.3 226.6 38.2% 190,489 137.3 164.4

Maine 27.7% 9,684 210.4 234.0 28.0% 40,629 152.9 169.5

Maryland 38.0% 76,721 319.6 312.0 34.0% 299,559 229.1 226.6

Massachusetts 16.8% 32,885 328.8 336.1 16.2% 122,151 240.4 242.5

Michigan 18.4% 61,138 171.3 202.9 21.6% 301,385 114.1 141.4

Minnesota 18.2% 39,390 228.5 245.9 19.4% 182,166 156.5 179.8

Mississippi 45.8% 22,652 175.8 202.1 46.9% 117,210 121.0 146.6

Missouri 27.2% 54,846 178.5 207.6 30.4% 262,926 120.6 145.7

Montana 26.1% 9,113 251.0 255.2 24.4% 36,226 170.3 188.3

Nebraska 26.0% 14,238 194.8 202.0 28.4% 72,013 123.1 144.2

Nevada 35.8% 47,437 284.3 267.5 29.0% 140,237 195.1 203.8

New Hampshire 25.1% 11,206 264.6 261.5 24.7% 44,033 194.8 190.9

New Jersey 23.1% 55,009 282.3 312.6 23.3% 243,770 210.1 228.0

New Mexico 38.4% 19,095 208.9 222.4 38.6% 98,238 141.2 158.9

New York 21.3% 47,993 278.1 309.0 22.4% 325,319 186.6 221.5

North Carolina 31.1% 103,191 215.1 244.2 29.3% 431,967 142.3 175.1

North Dakota 22.3% 4,080 236.7 231.5 22.2% 16,781 167.0 172.6

Ohio 28.2% 84,767 168.8 189.7 30.9% 446,826 112.1 132.9

Oklahoma 41.6% 34,225 178.7 201.7 43.7% 196,109 119.6 145.3

Oregon 23.3% 38,018 294.7 295.6 19.5% 125,073 204.7 221.1

Pennsylvania 26.3% 71,905 191.9 232.2 28.9% 412,989 135.2 163.7

Rhode Island 30.0% 8,880 261.7 258.7 29.8% 36,732 192.3 191.6

South Carolina 36.9% 60,820 216.5 231.5 33.2% 231,622 148.6 168.9

South Dakota 26.8% 7,339 207.7 218.5 30.2% 30,844 143.1 159.8

Tennessee 34.0% 69,368 217.9 241.4 33.9% 294,827 140.8 175.4

Texas 33.1% 245,112 230.5 253.5 31.2% 1,090,321 146.5 184.5

Utah 20.7% 38,346 287.2 287.8 20.8% 120,121 198.7 226.3

Vermont 21.3% 2,662 215.0 231.2 18.9% 12,789 164.1 163.1

Virginia 39.2% 115,961 316.7 316.0 35.0% 449,565 215.9 226.4

Washington 25.1% 81,802 333.3 340.7 22.1% 265,928 225.1 249.1

West Virginia 45.4% 11,553 179.2 184.2 43.1% 56,270 125.9 131.3

Wisconsin 16.4% 30,986 194.0 210.7 17.3% 134,753 133.3 148.5

Wyoming 36.0% 6,884 239.9 247.7 35.0% 26,756 177.3 184.2

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of September 2020. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 

months, from September 2019 to September 2020.

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 26.1 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 27.5 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 12.2 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 46.9 percent in 

Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

15
FHA and VA Outstanding Loan Count 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of September 2020. 

FHA Outstanding Loan Count by State

VA Outstanding Loan Count by State

Texas , Florida, and California are the top 3 states for FHA and VA lending as measured by the number of loans 

outstanding. As of August 2020, TX has 740,000 FHA and 310,000 VA loans outstanding, FL had 540,000 FHA and 

270,000 VA loans outstanding, and CA had 500,000 FHA and 240,000 VA loans outstanding. Virginia ranks 4th for 

number of VA loans outstanding and 11th for number of FHA loans outstanding.

16
State of the US Housing Market

$11.3

$21.5

$32.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q2

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt Household equity Total Value

$0.44

$0.47

$7.13

$3.26

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q2

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Home Equity loans Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, eMBS and Urban Institute. Last updated September 2020. 

Note Top: Single family includes 1-4 family mortgages. The home equity number is grossed up from Fed totals to include the value of households and 

the non-financial business sector. Note Bottom: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, credit 

unions and other financial companies. 

The Federal Reserve’s Flow of Fund Report has indicated a gradually increasing total value of the housing market, 

driven primarily by growing home equity since 2012. The Q2 2020 numbers show that while mortgage debt 

outstanding remained steady at $11.3 trillion, total home equity grew slightly from $21.1 trillion in Q1 2020 to 

$21.5 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, bringing the total value of the housing market to $32.8 trillion, 28.4 

percent higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Agency MBS account for 63.1 percent of the total mortgage debt 

outstanding, private-label securities make up 3.9 percent, and unsecuritized first liens make up 28.8 percent. 

Home equity loans comprise the remaining 4.2 percent of the total.

17
State of the US Housing Market

As of September 2020, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $7.30 trillion: 42.7 percent Fannie Mae, 

29.1 percent Freddie Mac, and 28.2 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA 

have grown very rapidly since 2009, although since May 2020, FHA has contracted. FHA comprises 56.7 percent of 

total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 37.5 percent. Note that during the pandemic the GSEs 

have been growing faster than Ginnie Mae, courtesy of borrowers with home price appreciating moving from FHA 

to conventional refinances and saving on the mortgage insurance premium.

$3.12

$2.06

$2.12

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

$1.2

$0.8

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of September 2020.

18
State of the US Housing Market

$0.56

$0.18

$0.01

$0.11

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

2020

Q2

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q2 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

2020

Q2

First Lien Origination Share

In the second quarter of 2020, first lien originations totaled $865 billion, up from the Q2 2019 volume of $565 

billion. The share of portfolio originations was 12.7 percent in Q2 2020, a significant decline from the 42.1 percent 

share in the same period 2019. The Q2 2020 GSE share was up significantly at 65.2 percent, compared to 38.6 

percent in Q2 2019. The FHA/VA share grew to 21.1 percent, also up compared to 17.5 percent last year. Privatelabel securitization currently tallies 1.0 percent, down from 1.6 percent one year ago, and a fraction of its share in 

the pre-bubble years. The sharp decline of the portfolio and private label channels in Q2 reflected COVID-19 

generated market liquidity issues, which made it difficult to originate mortgages in channels without government 

support. The sharp increase in the GSE share reflected the huge amount of refinances done through this channel.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q2 2020. 

12.7%

1.00%

21.1%

65.2%

19
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 $266.9 $225.7 $16.0 $508.6

2020 YTD $237.8 $298.5 $17.0 $553.3

2020 % Change YOY 27.3% 105.5% 53.9% 61.2%

2020 Ann. $317.1 $398.0 $22.7 $737.7

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 $597.4 $445.2 $1,042.6 $508.6 $1,551.2

2020 YTD $918.0 $681.1 $1,599.1 $553.3 $2,152.4

2020 % Change YOY 128.2% 130.3% 129.1% 61.2% 106.7%

2020 Ann. $1,224.0 $908.1 $2,132.1 $737.7 $2,869.9

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of September 2020.

Agency gross issuance in the first nine months of 2020 was a very large $2.15 trillion, already surpassing every full 

year of agency origination in the 21st century, including the previous high of $2.09 trillion in 2003. On an 

annualized basis, we would expect 2020 to come in at about $2.87 trillion, as compared with the 2019 full year 

volume of $1.55 trillion. Compared to the same period of 2019, agency gross issuance was up 106.7 percent. 

Ginnie Mae gross issuance was up by 61.2 percent and GSE gross issuance was up by 129.1 percent. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA was up by 27.3 percent and VA origination was up by 105.5 percent.

20
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 $35.9 $58.0 $1.9 $95.7

2020 YTD -$29.8 $51.7 $1.1 $23.0

2020 % Change YOY -198.5% 26.9% -11.7% -68.2%

2020 Ann. -$39.8 $68.9 $1.5 $30.6

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $53.5 $11.8 $65.3 $89.6 $154.9

2014 -$4.0 $30.0 $26.0 $61.6 $87.7

2015 $3.5 $65.0 $68.4 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $60.5 $66.8 $127.4 $126.1 $261.6

2017 $83.7 $77.0 $160.7 $132.3 $293.0

2018 $81.9 $67.6 $149.4 $112.0 $261.5

2019 $87.4 $110.3 $197.8 $95.7 $293.5

2020 YTD $206.2 $193.7 $399.9 $23.0 $422.9

2020 % Change YOY 218.3% 150.7% 181.5% -68.2% 97.3%

2020 Ann. $274.9 $258.3 $533.3 $30.6 $563.9

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian 

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of September 2020.

The first nine months of 2020 have been very robust for agency net issuance, with $422.9 billion of net new supply, up 

97.3 percent compared with the same period of 2019. 2020 YTD Ginnie Mae net issuance is $23.0 billion, comprising 5.4 

percent of total agency net issuance. This is down substantially from 2019 levels, reflecting a contraction in FHA 

securities outstanding.

21
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of September 2020.

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates rise, increasing when 

interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the same 

month in previous years. The September 2020 gross agency issuance of $297.5 billion was significantly higher 

than the same month in 2019, continuing a record setting year of issuance, as lower rates gave borrowers a 

stronger incentive to refinance.

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $136.6 $8.5 $10.7 $10.3 $29.5

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $98.1 $2.5 $6.5 $9.4 $18.5

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $95.2 $9.7 $6.2 $9.7 $25.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $97.0 $3.3 $0.4 $11.7 $15.4

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $99.3 $7.7 $2.7 $13.3 $23.8

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $110.7 $7.9 $2.4 $13.3 $23.5

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $113.5 $5.6 $3.5 $12.3 $21.5

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $121.1 $12.0 $6.7 $15.4 $34.1

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $115.5 $7.7 $3.8 $10.6 $22.0

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $115.9 $5.5 $12.5 $11.0 $28.9

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $118.5 $3.9 $13.6 $8.3 $25.8

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $111.5 $9.2 $8.1 $7.0 $24.4

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.1 $0.2 $7.7 $20.0

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.3 $2.2 $7.1 $17.6

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $6.3 $14.1

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.0 $8.8 $16.5

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $5.1 $7.2 $10.5 $22.8

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.5 $6.8 $10.3 $19.6

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $10.4 $18.3

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $15.8 $7.9 $12.5 $36.1

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.9 $6.2 $9.0 $21.1

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $9.7 $7.1 $11.4 $28.2

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $3.6 $11.0 $9.8 $24.4

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $8.2 $22.8

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.9 $2.5 $9.2 $17.6

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.4 $3.4 $4.6 $9.3

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.8 $10.3 $5.6 $17.6

Apr-19 $33.1 $30.8 $32.9 $96.8 $1.3 $10.8 $8.3 $20.4

May-19 $44.5 $34.3 $38.8 $117.6 $6.7 $9.8 $9.4 $26.0

Jun-19 $44.6 $34.0 $43.3 $121.9 $1.9 $5.9 $9.0 $16.8

Jul-19 $51.7 $36.9 $45.9 $134.5 $10.9 $10.1 $11.0 $32.0

Aug-19 $71.1 $50.4 $51.2 $172.6 $20.8 $17.1 $8.7 $46.6

Sep-19 $67.1 $43.0 $52.0 $162.1 $14.1 $7.5 $6.5 $28.0

Oct-19 $65.0 $46.2 $58.4 $169.6 $7.4 $7.1 $11.9 $26.5

Nov-19 $68.1 $50.7 $54.3 $173.1 $5.2 $8.6 $4.1 $18.0

Dec-19 $62.1 $52.5 $52.7 $167.3 $10.1 $17.3 $7.4 $34.7

Jan-20 $61.7 $51.4 $56.0 $169.0 $9.1 $16.5 $8.6 $34.2

Feb-20 $56.5 $39.5 $51.2 $147.2 $9.4 $7.9 $7.1 $24.4

Mar-20 $69.5 $41.1 $53.0 $163.9 $17.9 $6.3 $8.8 $33.0

Apr-20 $101.6 $76.3 $61.4 $239.3 $30.5 $27.5 $10.2 $68.2

May-20 $124.3 $70.6 $60.8 $255.7 $35.2 $8.2 $5.7 $49.1

Jun-20 $118.9 $78.1 $58.5 $255.4 $30.0 $15.9 $1.3 $47.2

Jul-20 $125.0 $108.1 $66.5 $299.5 $23.4 $38.0 -$15.5 $45.9

Aug-20 $137.6 $113.6 $73.6 $324.8 $34.2 $43.4 -$4.1 $73.5

Sep-20 $122.9 $102.1 $72.4 $297.5 $16.5 $29.9 $1.0 $47.5

Monthly Agency Issuance

22
$13.3 

$92.3 

$59.9 

$15.0 $2.6 $0.2 

$1.3 

$17.3 

$20.0 

$6.3 

$2.1 $0.8 

$7.3 

$31.2 

$18.7 

$3.3 

$0.6 

$0.2 

 $0

 $20

 $40

 $60

 $80

 $100

 $120

 $140

 $160

2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Streamlined Cash-out Not streamlined, not cash-out

Coupon

$ billions

Ginnie Mae Refinance Issuance by Type: 2020 YTD

US Agency Market, Originations

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of September 2020.

The FHA refinance share stood at 34.6 percent in September 2020, below the 69.3 percent refi share for GSE 

originations and the 67.7 percent share for the VA. Refinances as a share of all originations grew during 2019 and 

early 2020 as interest rates fell. Refinances have declined slightly from their peaks but remain at high levels, as 

interest rates have stabilized at generational lows. The bottom section shows that nearly all of 2020 YTD Ginnie 

Mae refinances, predominantly streamlined, were securitized in lower coupon pools. Cash-out refinances are 

typically securitized in higher coupons, but their volume has fallen sharply in recent months due to restrictions 

Ginnie Mae put in place in late 2019, to combat the “churning” problem.

69.3%

34.6%

67.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Percent Refi at Issuance

Refishare GSE FHA VA

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of September 2020.

23
Credit Box

38.8%

44.2%

68.8%

51.6%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17 Jan-18May-18Sep-18 Jan-19May-19Sep-19 Jan-20May-20Sep-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 68.8 percent in September 2020, down 

slightly from 69.8 percent in September 2019. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of 

the Ginnie Mae purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 

44.2 percent and 38.8 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase originations, respectively. The bottom 

table shows that based on mortgages originated in September 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was 

more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a higher LTV, a 

similar DTI, and pay a slightly higher rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 293,051 316,116 280,021 306,280 240,074 296,084 263,513 306,640 

Credit Score 750.7 761.0 747.6 758.4 689.5 707.1 720.5 744.9 

LTV (%) 87.1 79.3 87.7 79.2 96.9 96.0 92.0 83.9 

DTI (%) 33.8 34.9 34.3 35.4 41.1 41.5 37.4 36.9 

Loan Rate (%) 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.0 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of September 2020.

24
Credit Box

76.6%

50.4%

77.2%

68.8%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17 Jan-18May-18Sep-18 Jan-19May-19Sep-19 Jan-20May-20Sep-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront 

mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of September 2020.

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 76.6 percent of FHA loans, 50.4 percent of VA loans and 77.2 percent of 

other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in September 2020. The bottom table shows that 

based on mortgages originated in September 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an 

average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a higher LTV, lower DTI and pay a slightly higher rate.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 231,899 251,717 298,066 352,585 170,131 178,260 240,074 296,084 

Credit Score 679.3 679.3 713.6 732.4 700.7 699.7 689.5 707.1 

LTV (%) 95.6 94.3 99.6 97.0 99.5 99.0 96.9 96.0 

DTI (%) 42.7 43.5 39.4 40.6 34.9 35.5 41.1 41.5 

Loan Rate (%) 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.0 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Includes only purchase loans. Data as of September 2020.

25
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2017.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 503 524 587 682 774 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 570 615 682 752 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (682) is equal to the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (682).

26
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 370,036 655 715 743 781 800 734 

Fannie 138,379 694 736 763 795 804 755 

Freddie 98,949 698 731 766 791 804 758 

Ginnie 132,708 634 655 685 732 776 695 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 625,370 690 731 771 795 807 758 

Fannie 293,123 705 742 776 797 808 765 

Freddie 243,864 704 739 774 796 807 764 

Ginnie 88,383 643 676 722 773 799 721 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 995,406 672 715 762 791 805 749 

Fannie 431,502 701 736 772 795 807 762 

Freddie 342,813 702 737 772 794 806 762 

Ginnie 221,091 638 661 698 752 789 705 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 132,708 634 655 685 732 776 695 

FHA 77,963 629 648 672 705 743 679 

VA 41,387 647 677 725 773 797 723 

Other 13,358 645 664 695 735 767 700 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 88,383 643 676 722 773 799 721 

FHA 23,312 623 647 676 709 747 679 

VA 64,162 659 696 745 783 802 736 

Other 909 651 672 713 756 784 713 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 221,091 638 661 698 752 789 705 

FHA 101,275 628 648 673 706 744 679 

VA 105,549 653 688 737 780 801 731 

Other 14,267 646 664 696 736 768 701 

September 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of September 2020.

In September 2020, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 698 versus 772 for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 

Note that the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 638 for Ginnie Mae, versus 701 for Fannie Mae and 702 for 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 673, VA loans have a median 

FICO score of 737 and other loans have a median FICO score of 696.

27
September 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 370,357 72.0 80.0 94.8 96.5 100.0 87.5 

Fannie 138,319 65.0 80.0 82.0 95.0 95.0 82.6 

Freddie 98,988 64.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 81.9 

Ginnie 133,050 94.4 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.6 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 659,796 44.0 58.0 70.0 80.0 91.9 68.7 

Fannie 293,124 41.0 54.0 67.0 75.0 80.0 64.0 

Freddie 243,878 43.0 56.0 68.0 76.0 81.0 65.0 

Ginnie 122,794 69.5 81.4 90.6 97.1 99.8 87.3 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,030,153 49.0 63.0 79.0 92.6 96.5 75.4 

Fannie 431,443 45.0 59.0 74.0 80.0 95.0 69.9 

Freddie 342,866 46.0 59.0 73.0 80.0 90.0 69.9 

Ginnie 255,844 78.4 89.9 96.5 98.7 100.5 92.2 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 133,050 94.4 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.6 

FHA 78,213 94.6 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.3 

VA 41,449 91.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.3 98.3 

Other 13,388 96.0 99.2 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.4 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 122,794 69.5 81.4 90.6 97.1 99.8 87.3 

FHA 39,092 76.6 82.7 92.6 96.7 97.9 88.9 

VA 82,744 66.6 80.0 90.0 97.5 100.5 86.5 

Other 958 76.9 87.9 96.8 100.0 101.0 92.2 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 255,844 78.4 89.9 96.5 98.7 100.5 92.2 

FHA 117,305 83.0 94.1 96.5 96.5 96.6 93.2 

VA 124,193 71.3 84.2 95.6 100.0 102.1 90.4 

Other 14,346 94.8 99.1 101.0 101.0 101.0 98.9 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of September 2020.

In September 2020, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, 74 percent for Fannie 

Mae and 73 percent for Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 100.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, versus 90 percent for 

Freddie and 95 percent for Fannie. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 95.6 for VA 

and 101.0 for other programs. 

28
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 370,084 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 49.0 37.0 

Fannie 138,458 21.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 46.0 34.8 

Freddie 98,986 21.0 27.0 35.0 42.0 46.0 34.3 

Ginnie 132,640 28.2 34.9 41.9 48.3 53.4 41.2 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 564,003 19.0 25.0 32.0 40.0 45.0 32.2 

Fannie 293,117 18.0 24.0 32.0 40.0 45.0 31.9 

Freddie 243,865 19.0 25.0 32.0 40.0 45.0 32.1 

Ginnie 27,021 22.8 30.2 37.6 46.1 52.2 37.6 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 934,087 20.0 26.0 35.0 42.0 47.0 34.1 

Fannie 431,575 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.8 

Freddie 342,851 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.7 

Ginnie 159,661 27.2 33.9 41.3 48.0 53.3 40.6 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 132,640 28.2 34.9 41.9 48.3 53.4 41.2 

FHA 78,167 30.6 37.1 43.8 49.5 54.1 42.9 

VA 41,117 26.1 33.0 40.6 47.4 53.2 40.0 

Other 13,356 25.4 30.6 35.9 40.2 43.2 35.0 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 27,021 22.8 30.2 37.6 46.1 52.2 37.6 

FHA 11,409 26.9 33.5 41.8 48.6 53.6 40.7 

VA 15,029 20.7 28.2 35.0 43.5 50.2 35.6 

Other 583 13.9 22.1 29.5 35.7 41.1 28.7 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 159,661 27.2 33.9 41.3 48.0 53.3 40.6 

FHA 89,576 30.0 36.7 43.6 49.4 54.0 42.6 

VA 56,146 24.6 31.7 39.2 46.6 52.6 38.8 

Other 13,939 24.8 30.2 35.7 40.2 43.2 34.7 

September 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of September 2020.

In September 2020, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 41.3 percent, considerably higher than 

the 33.0 percent median DTI for both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 53.3 

percent, also much higher than the 45.0 percent DTI for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae 

market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 43.6 percent, versus 39.2 percent for VA and 35.7 percent for other lending 

programs. 

29
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

772

698

762

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17 Jan-18May-18Sep-18 Jan-19May-19Sep-19 Jan-20May-20Sep-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of September 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in September 2020 was 762, up considerably since the 

start of last year, owing to the refinance wave, which higher FICO borrowers take advantage of with greater 

frequency. In addition, the increases in refinance activity have been much more dramatic at the GSEs than at 

Ginnie Mae, shifting the composition toward higher FICO scores borrowers. Note since early 2019, the median 

FICO scores for Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie borrowers have moved up for both purchase and refinance loans. 

The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrower FICOs is slightly wider for purchase loans than for refi 

loans.

30
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 73–74 LTVs 

for the GSEs. Median debt-to-income ratios for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, 

considerably higher than for the GSEs. DTIs increased in the 2017-2018 period for both Ginnie Mae and 

GSE loans, with the movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are very typical in an 

environment of rising interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies witnessed measurable 

declines in DTI, beginning in early 2019, driven by lower interest rates.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of September 2020.

79.0

74.0

73.0

33.0

41.3

35.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

31
Credit Box: Historical

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

FHA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=660 DTI <=45, FICO>660

DTI>45, FICO <=660 DTI>45, FICO>660

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

VA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=700 DTI <=45, FICO>700

DTI>45, FICO <=700 DTI>45, FICO>700

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of September 2020.

DTI is a much weaker predictor of performance than FICO score. The top chart shows FHA borrowers with higher 

DTIs do default more than those with lower DTIs, but the differences are modest, as evidenced by the fact that the 

black line is very close to the blue line and the grey line is not that much above the yellow line. By contrast, FICO 

makes a much larger difference, as can be seen by comparing the blue line to the yellow line or the black line to the 

gray line. And low DTI/low FICO borrowers default much less than high DTI/high FICO borrowers, as can be seen 

by comparing the blue line to the gray line. The bottom chart, for VA borrowers illustrates the same point; DTI is a 

much weaker predictor of loan performance than credit score.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of September 2020.

32
95%

82%

60%

42%

33%

95%

88%

63%

37%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

94%

82%

61%

42%

33%

94%

86%

62%

37%

28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

July 2018- October 2018 July 2020- October 2020

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

98% 93%

81%

61%

48%

99% 98%

91%

66%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In July 2020- October 2020, 

Ginnie Mae accounted for 94 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, compared to 

just 28 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI bucket looks a 

lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In July 2020− October 2020, Ginnie Mae’s share of issuance was higher 

for DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share of loans with a DTI of 

45 and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 91 percent; it was between 62-63 percent for the same FICO in the 

lower DTI buckets. Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear the GSEs have stepped up their higher LTV 

lending for borrowers with FICOs of 700 or higher for DTIs less than 45 (the less than 35 and the 35-45 buckets).

33
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

July 2018-October 2018

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.8% 4.6% 2.6% 6.8% 8.9% 25.7%

35 −45 5.3% 9.0% 4.8% 11.3% 10.0% 40.3%

≥ 45 4.8% 8.9% 4.4% 9.2% 6.6% 34.0%

All 13.0% 22.5% 11.7% 27.3% 25.5% 100.0%

July 2020-October 2020

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 1.6% 4.8% 2.9% 8.7% 13.0% 31.0%

35 −45 2.9% 8.7% 5.0% 13.0% 12.6% 42.4%

≥ 45 2.3% 7.1% 3.5% 7.7% 6.0% 26.6%

All 6.8% 20.6% 11.4% 29.5% 31.6% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

July 2018- October 2018 72.2% 21.7% 38.5%

July 2020- October 2020 73.4% 10.6% 20.7%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 73.4 percent of its issuances in the July 2020- October 2020 

period having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 10.6 percent for the GSEs. The GSEs have decreased their highLTV lending share from 21.7 percent in July 2018− October 2018. Ginnie Mae’s high-LTV lending has grown over 

the same period from 72.2 percent. The share of high-LTV agency loans going to highest FICO borrowers (i.e. 

above 750) has increased from the July 2018-October 2018 period to the July 2020-October 2020 period, as has 

the share of lower DTI borrowers (below 35).

34
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of September 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of September 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

91.7%

75.5%

70.6%

70.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

The nonbank origination share has been rising steadily for all three agencies since 2013. The Ginnie Mae 

nonbank share has been consistently higher than the GSEs, standing at 91.7 percent in September 2020, a new 

record high. Freddie’s nonbank share rose to 70.4 percent, while Fannie’s nonbank share rose to 70.6 percent in 

September (note that these numbers can be volatile on a month-to-month basis). Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and 

Freddie Mac all have higher nonbank origination shares for refi activity than for purchase activity. Freddie 

Mac’s nonbank share is the lowest among the three agencies for purchase loans; Fannie Mae has the lowest 

nonbank share for refi loans.

35
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of September 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of September 2020.

In September 2020, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share rose to 91.7 percent. The nonbank originator share for FHA 

fell very slightly to 93.6 percent in September, compared to 93.8 percent the previous month. The nonbank 

originator share for VA was higher than last month at 90.5 percent and the nonbank originator share for other 

loans, which can fluctuate quite a bit month to month, rose to 91.3 percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

94%

92%

91%

90%

36
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of September 2020. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of September 2020. 

762

770

759

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

780

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020. 

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. FICO scores for loans originated by 

nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, where the differentials between banks and 

non-banks are small, FICO scores for both have increased since early 2014. The sharp rise in bank and non-bank FICOs 

reflects an increase in GSE refinance activity, producing a shift in their business mix toward higher FICO activities. 

Within the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations are much higher since early 2014 while nonbank 

FICOs are up somewhat less. This reflects both the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks, and increased refi 

activity for higher FICO borrowers.

37
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTVs for nonbank and bank originations are comparable, while the median DTI for nonbank loans is higher 

than for bank loans, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in both this and the FICO dimension. Between 

early 2017 and early 2019, there was a substantial increase in DTIs; over the subsequent months, this has mostly 

reversed in the Ginnie Mae space, and more than completely reversed for the GSEs, leaving GSE DTIs lower than they 

have been at any point in the last 7 years. This is true for both Ginnie Mae and the GSEs, for banks and nonbanks. As 

interest rates increased, DTIs rose, because borrower payments were driven up relative to incomes. With the fall in 

interest rates in 2019 and 2020, DTIs have dropped.

38
650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of September 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of September 2020.

The median FICO score for Ginnie Mae nonbank originators grew slightly in September 2020. Bank FICOs are 

14 points above non-banks. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent for all categories of 

government lending.

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2020.

39
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of September 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of September 2020.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA borrowers experienced notable increases during 2017 and 2018 

for both banks and nonbank originators, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are 

expected in a rising rate environment. After peaking in January 2019, Ginnie DTIs have reverted to 2017 levels, 

as rates have declined. 

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2020.

40
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Lakeview $203,791 12.6% 12.6%

2 PennyMac $189,638 11.7% 24.3%

3 Wells Fargo $170,226 10.5% 34.7%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $121,089 7.5% 42.2%

5 Nationstar $97,684 5.4% 47.6%

6 Quicken Loans $69,866 4.3% 51.9%

7 Newrez $52,351 3.2% 55.2%

8 US Bank $49,014 3.0% 58.2%

9 Carrington Mortgage $43,207 2.7% 60.9%

10 USAA Federal Savings Bank $38,819 2.4% 63.2%

11 Caliber Home Loans $37,818 2.3% 65.6%

12 Truist Bank $29,286 1.8% 67.4%

13 Amerihome Mortgage $28,510 1.8% 69.1%

14 Navy Federal Credit Union $28,004 1.7% 70.9%

15 Home Point Financial Corporation $22,961 1.4% 72.3%

16 The Money Source $20,453 1.3% 73.5%

17 Loan Depot $18,481 1.1% 74.7%

18 JP Morgan Chase $17,212 1.1% 75.7%

19 Midfirst Bank $16,752 1.0% 76.8%

20 Guild Mortgage $16,173 1.0% 77.8%

21 Shore Financial $15,341 0.9% 78.7%

22 M&T Bank $14,367 0.9% 79.6%

23 Roundpoint Mortgage $14,323 0.9% 80.5%

24 Citizens Bank $13,625 0.8% 81.3%

25 PHH Mortgage Corporation $13,097 0.8% 82.1%

26 Planet Home Lending $12,540 0.8% 82.9%

27 Flagstar Bank $11,883 0.7% 83.6%

28 Pingora $10,329 0.6% 84.3%

29 Bank of America $9,186 0.6% 84.8%

30 New American Funding $8,972 0.6% 85.4%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of September 2020, over half (51.9 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 

firms collectively own 85.4 percent. Nineteen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 11 are depository 

institutions. 

41
75.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In December 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. In September 2020, Wells Fargo’s holdings of MSRs dipped to $170.2 

billion, below the $203.8 and $189.6 billion held by Lakeview and PennyMac, respectively (both nonbanks). 

Freedom Home Mortgage and Nationstar (both nonbanks) make up the remainder of the top five largest holders 

of MSRs, owning $121 billion and $88 billion respectively as of September 2020. Nonbanks collectively owned 

servicing rights for 75.2 percent of all outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by Ginnie Mae in 

September 2020. In December 2013, the nonbank share was much smaller at 27.7 percent. 

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$203,791

$189,638

$170,226

$121,089

$88,079

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

1. Lakeview 2. PennyMac

3. Wells Fargo 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

UPB ($ millions) 5. Nationstar

42
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

While prepayment speeds on all securities have risen since early 2019, the speed increase has been especially 

dramatic in 2020, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly due to a sharp drop in rates. At 

this point, the speeds on GSE securities have largely converged with those on Ginnie II securities, as the former 

have ramped up more quickly in the last few months. The faster Ginnie speeds from 2013-early 2020 reflected 

the growing share of VA loans, which tend to prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA puts 

fewer restrictions on streamlined refinances, and some of the upfront mortgage insurance premium can also be 

applied to the refinanced loan.

37%

36%

31%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Oct 11 Apr 12 Oct 12 Apr 13 Oct 13 Apr 14 Oct 14 Apr 15 Oct 15 Apr 16 Oct 16 Apr 17 Oct 17 Apr 18 Oct 18 Apr 19 Oct 19 Apr 20 Oct 20

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

46%

42%

31%

43
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Speeds on the 2015 3.5s and the 2016 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have been 

increasing since early 2019.; the speed increases have been especially dramatic in 2020 due to a sharp drop in 

rates, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly. The speeds on the 2015-issued Ginnie 3.5s 

fell slightly below their conventional counterparts in August 2020, although the speeds on the 2016-issued 

Ginnie Mae 3.0s remain very comparable to their conventional counterparts. The faster historical speeds on the 

Ginnie Mae cohorts reflect the fact that 2015 and 2016 Ginnie originations consist of a large component of VA 

loans, which prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. The FHA streamlined programs are likely another 

contributor to the historically faster speeds.

48%

47%

45%

48%

47%

39%

44
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

The charts below show the behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-issued 4.0s, the largest coupon 

cohorts of those vintage years. Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s were prepaying faster than their 

conventional counterparts from late 2017 to March 2020, due primarily to fast VA prepayment speeds. 

Similarly, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s prepaid more slowly than their conventional counterparts until January of 

2019. In 2019, speeds of 2018 4.0s and 2017 3.5s accelerated, and Ginnie II speeds accelerated more than 

their conventional counterparts. However, in early 2020 conventional speeds accelerated more than Ginnie

speeds. Since March 2020, conventional speeds have exceeded those of the Ginnie cohorts; the expanded use 

of GSE appraisal waivers has played a role in this.

53%

42%

45%

56%

55%

46%

45
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

The charts below show the prepayment speeds by loan age for 2017 Ginnie II 4.0s and 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s—the 

cohorts 50 basis points above the largest coupon cohort for those years. Prepayment speeds on the 2017 Ginnie 

II 4.0s jumped up sharply at the 7-9 month loan age, reflecting abuse of the VA Streamlined Refi program 

(IRRRL). The 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s do not show increased speeds until the 9-10 month point; reflecting both the 

effect of lower rates and the actions taken by both Ginnie Mae and the VA in H1 2018 to curb this abuse. Ginnie 

Mae actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA prepayment speeds are especially high from 

selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling requirements so that if loans that 

do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is ineligible for securitization. Ginnie’s 

latest action on this front became effective for securities issued on or after Nov 1 2019. It bars the securitization 

of over 90% LTV cash-out refinances into Ginnie I and Ginnie II pools (custom pools excepted). In addition, VA 

has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the lender to show the borrower has obtained a benefit 

from the refinance. The recent experience of these cohorts indicates that, as a result of the cumulative actions 

taken in response to “churning” plus the acceleration of speeds in the conventional market in response to lower 

rates, Ginnie Mae and conventional speeds on 2017 issues 4.0s and 2018 4.5 have largely converged for 

mortgages 46 and 34 months old, respectively.

40.5%

40.4%

40.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR

Loan age

47.3%

35.4%

35.2%

46
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.88

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$55.4

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Sep-20

Jul-20

Mar-20

May-20

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile over the past two years, but has been generally 

increasing since early 2019. September showed little variance from August, with issuance increasing slightly to 

$0.88 billion. In September 2020, outstanding reverse mortgage securities totaled $55.4 billion, up a tad from 

last month, reflecting a higher volume of new issuances relative to paydowns.

47
Multifamily Market

$3.4

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

Sep-20

Jul-20

Mar-20

May-20

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$127.8

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Sep-20

Jul-20

Mar-20

May-20

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volume in September 2020 totaled $3.4 billion, the first decline after four 

consecutive months of growth from the prior month. It is important to realize this number is high in a historical 

context, with monthly issuance averaging $1.7 since March of 2013. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled 

$127.8 billion as of the ninth month of 2020.

48
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

$290 

$613 

$40 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

4.08%

3.29%

0.41% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume is $290 billion/day on average for the first nine months of 2020, more robust than 

in the 2014-2019 period, but still below the pre-crisis peak of $345 billion in 2008. Average daily trading 

volume for Treasuries now exceeds the pre-crisis peak. Agency MBS turnover in 2020 YTD (through September) 

has also been higher than the 2014-2019 period; in 2020, average daily MBS turnover was 4.08 percent, above 

the 2019 average of 3.67 percent. Note that agency MBS turnover in the first nine months of 2020 has been 

higher than US Treasury turnover, a rare occurrence. Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are 

down from their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury 

turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

49
Market Conditions

$214.1

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$79.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Dealer net positions are at the higher end of their post-crisis range, and very close to their pre-crisis highs. 

By contrast, dealer gross positions have fallen dramatically. The volume of repurchase activity is at the lower 

end of the post-crisis range, and much lower than pre-crisis levels. The large decline through time reflects 

banks cutting back on lower margin businesses.

50
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 2015Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The “other” category includes primarily life insurance companies, state and 

local govts, households, and nonprofits. Data as of Q2 2020.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (20 

percent), commercial banks (21 percent), foreign investors (12 percent), and money market & pension funds (12 

percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares are a fraction of what they once were. The Federal Reserve’s share 

increased from 15 percent in the first quarter of 2020 to 20 percent in the second quarter due to substantial 

purchases of MBS in response to the COVID-19 crisis. 

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

51
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The MBS share of agency debt unexpectedly dropped in Q1 2020 due to a 

higher than usual, $400 billion discrepancy between agency assets and liabilities, as reported by Fed flow of funds. Data as of Q2 2020.

70.7%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 2015Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Small domestic banks includes all domestically chartered commercial banks not 

included in the top 25. Data as of October 2020.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio post 2008, fewer agency notes and bonds were 

required to fund that activity. As a result, the MBS share of total agency debt increased over time. Commercial 

banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $2.3 trillion in holdings as of the end of September 

2020, $1.7 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

` Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Sep-19 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep 30 Oct 07 Oct 14 Oct 21

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1495.5 1597.0 1637.9 1636.7 1630.5 1662.0 1716.5 1701.6 1697.0 1712.6 1731.8 1742.8

Small Domestic 

Banks 504.6 538.6 541.1 543.0 551.8 559.7 570.6 583.6 600.2 601.1 606.2 604.3

Foreign Related 

Banks 34.7 43.9 46.1 43.5 43.7 43.2 41.5 39.5 39.8 39.8 36.0 39.5

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 2034.8 2179.5 2225.1 2223.2 2226.0 2264.9 2328.6 2324.7 2337.0 2353.5 2374.0 2386.6

52
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $335,366.0 $191,632.0 $130,226.0 $13,209.0 $299.0 15.30

2 Wells Fargo & Company $251,111.0 $174,271.0 $68,543.0 $7,756.0 $541.0 11.40

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $214,143.0 $132,514.0 $63,132.0 $228.0 $18,269.0 9.80

4 Charles Schwab Bank $132,419.0 $74,363.0 $17,109.0 $40,947.0 $0.0 6.00

5 U S. Bancorp. $96,324.6 $62,461.2 $18,365.2 $15,497.5 $0.6 4.40

6 Citigroup Inc. $86,684.0 $75,645.0 $3,298.0 $5,971.0 $1,770.0 3.90

7 Truist Bank $71,526.0 $25,581.0 $19,903.0 $26,042.0 $0.0 3.30

8 Capital One Financial Corporation $71,357.3 $33,774.1 $13,105.7 $23,806.7 $670.9 3.30

9 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $62,069.0 $42,127.0 $4,314.0 $13,957.0 $1,671.0 2.80

10 PNC Bank, National Association $59,170.5 $48,983.4 $6,516.4 $1,988.7 $1,682.0 2.70

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $42,060.6 $22,424.0 $8,975.0 $8,431.6 $2,230.0 1.90

12 Morgan Stanley $33,078.0 $19,228.0 $5,754.0 $8,096.0 $0.0 1.50

13 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $27,422.7 $6,792.2 $11,409.5 $9,218.7 $2.2 1.20

14 TD Bank $25,549.8 $1,699.1 $176.5 $23,437.3 $236.9 1.20

15 E*TRADE Bank $24,784.5 $12,280.2 $3,988.5 $8,515.7 $0.0 1.10

16 Ally Bank $23,701.0 $15,008.0 $2035.0 $3,293.0 $3365.0 1.10

17 USAA Federal Savings Bank $23,163.0 $19,278.5 $2,623.6 $1,260.9 $0.0 1.10

18 Citizens Bank $21,301.8 $11,358.1 $3600.9 $5,756.4 $586.5 1.00

19 KeyBank National Association $18,805.1 $1,229.1 $591.7 $16984.3 $0.0 0.90

20 Silicon Valley Bank $18,739.9 $13,893.4 $158.5 $4,687.9 $0.0 0.90

Total Top 20 $1,638,777 $984,542 $383,826 $239,085 $31,324 74.80%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q2 2020.

Out of the $2.2 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q2 2020, $1.7 trillion was agency pass-throughs: 

$1.2 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $441 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $478 billion was agency 

CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $47 billion. In Q2, 2020, MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for 

the eighth consecutive quarter. The increase was driven by both GSE pass-throughs and agency CMO holdings, 

with the increase in GSE pass-throughs making the larger contribution.

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

2016 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01 

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04 

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69 

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,385.10 $1,001.61 $383.49 $422.18 $3.06 $34.65 

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,445.91 $1,037.93 $407.97 $421.56 $2.90 $36.76 

3Q19 $1,975.78 $1,506.92 $1,079.82 $427.10 $428.69 $4.74 $35.44 

4Q19 $1,985.38 $1,516.26 $1,089.41 $426.85 $428.99 $4.62 $35.52 

1Q20 $2,107.66 $1,621.00 $1,173.36 $448.34 $443.73 $4.65 $37.56 

2Q20 $2,195.19 $1,669.93 $1,228.87 $441.06 $478.11 $5.00 $42.14 

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

53
Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of July 2020.

16.4%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

MBS Ownership

$1,178.4

$529.6

$648.8

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2020. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Foreign investors held 16.4 percent of agency MBS in July 2020, up from a low of 12.0 percent in July 2014. For 

the month of July 2020, this represents $1.18 trillion in Agency MBS, $430 billion held by foreign private 

institutions and $649 billion held by foreign institutions. This represents a $15.2 billion drop in Agency MBS 

from the peak in April 2020, all in official holdings.

54
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of July 2020.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise just under 70 

percent of all foreign holdings. Between June 2019 and July 2020, we estimate that Japan has increased their 

agency MBS holdings by $16.0 billion, China has increased their holdings by $1.3 billion and Taiwan has 

increased their holdings by $0.64 billion. All three countries have experienced declines since March.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Jul-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020 Jul-20

Japan 297,016 311,047 305,332 322,155 310,268 312,967 14,031 -5,715 16,823 -11,887 2,699

Taiwan 265,524 263,018 261,740 269,133 267,918 266,096 -2,506 -1,278 7,393 -1,215 -1,822

China 227,357 233,783 231,753 260,479 239,045 227,007 6,426 -2,030 28,726 -21,434 -12,038

Luxembourg 47,646 46,641 39,015 36,789 42,389 38,099 -1,005 -7,626 -2,226 5,600 -4,290

Ireland 45,829 41,367 38,731 26,131 29,399 28,602 -4,462 -2,636 -12,600 3,268 -797

South Korea 42,879 41,485 40,810 40,964 38,891 39,478 -1,394 -675 154 -2,073 587

Cayman Islands 34,967 29,540 31,827 27,154 34,564 34,495 -5,427 2,287 -4,673 7,410 -69

Bermuda 29,365 29,184 33,897 27,790 27,790 29,182 -181 4,713 -6,107 0 1,392

Netherlands 14,074 10,549 10,902 10,886 13,255 12,937 -3,525 353 -16 2,369 -318

Malaysia 12,167 15,585 16,600 21,399 20,390 19,375 3,418 1,015 4,799 -1,009 -1,015

Rest of world 128,142 135,515 152,489 202,143 201,165 235,979 7,373 16,974 49,654 -978 34,814

Total 1,144,971 1,157,714 1,163,096 1,245,023 1,225,074 1,244,217 12,743 5,382 81,927 -19,949 19,143

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Jul-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020 Jul-20

Japan 293,662 307,738 302,212 319,241 306,963 309,635 14,076 -5,526 16,823 -12,278 -12,278

Taiwan 265,234 262,732 261,470 268,881 267,700 265,876 -2,502 -1,262 7,393 -1,181 -1,181

China 221,738 228,240 226,526 255,596 235,078 223,008 6,502 -1,714 28,726 -20,518 -20,518

Luxembourg 43,978 43,023 35,603 33,602 40,207 35,899 -955 -7,420 -2,226 6,605 6,605

Ireland 37,674 33,322 31,145 19,045 21,091 20,227 -4,352 -2,177 -12,600 2,047 2,047

South Korea 34,969 33,682 33,452 34,091 28,743 29,248 -1,287 -230 154 -5,347 -5,347

Cayman Islands 29,896 24,538 27,110 22,748 28,431 28,312 -5,358 2,572 -4,673 5,684 5,684

Bermuda 26,394 26,253 31,133 25,208 25,111 26,482 -141 4,880 -6,107 -97 -97

Netherlands 13,904 10,381 10,744 10,738 12,739 12,417 -3,523 363 -16 2,001 2,001

Malaysia 11,881 15,303 16,334 21,150 20,028 19,011 3,422 1,031 4,799 -1,122 -1,122

Rest of world 97,585 105,371 124,063 175,591 173,716 208,307 7,786 18,692 49,654 -1,874 -1,874

Total 1,076,916 1,090,579 1,099,788 1,185,887 1,159,808 1,178,419 13,663 9,209 81,927 -26,079 -26,079

55
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of September 2020.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

On March 23, 2020, in response to the market dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed 

announced they would purchase Treasuries and agency MBS in an amount necessary to support smooth 

functioning markets. In March the Fed bought $292.2 billion in agency MBS, and April clocked in at $295.1 billion, 

the largest two months of mortgage purchases ever; and well over 100 percent of gross issuance for each of those 

two months. After the market stabilized, the Fed slowed its purchases to around $100 -$104 billion per month in 

May, June, July, and August. In September, Fed purchases were up slightly at $111.3 billion, 37 percent of 

monthly issuance. Prior to the COVID-19 intervention, the Fed was winding down its MBS portfolio from its 2014 

prior peak.

56
Disclosures:

All the information contained in this document is as of date indicated unless otherwise noted. The 

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All 

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. 

The views expressed in this material are the views of the staff of the Urban Institute's Housing Finance 

Policy Center and State Street Global Advisors as of November 17th, 2020 and are subject to change 

based on market and other conditions. The views should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its 

trustees, or its funders. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forwardlooking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance 

and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.

© 2020 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. 

Tracking Code: 3328620.2.1.GBL.INST 

Expiration Date: 11/30/2021