Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 5

Global 10-year treasury yields 6

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 7-9

Ginnie Mae yield spreads - Intermediate Credit 10

MBS yield per duration 11

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 12 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 13

National HPI, HPI by state 13-14 

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 15

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 16

Outstanding Agency MBS 17

Outstanding Ginnie Mae MBS volume by vintage and coupon over time 18

Characteristics of Ginnie Mae loansin forbearance 19-21

Origination volume over time 22

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 23-25 

Purchase versus refi: Refi Issuance Breakdown 26 

Credit Box 

First time homebuyer share—purchase only loans 27-28

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 29-31

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 32-33

Cumulative Default Rates: FHA and VA 34

High LTV credit box 35-36

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 37-38

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 39-42

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 43-44

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 44

Prepayments 

Aggregate 45

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 46-48

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS and Multifamily 49

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 50

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 51

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 52

Foreign ownership of MBS 53-54

Fed Ownership of MBS 55

CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS

FHA and VA Purchase Mortgage Originations Expanded in 2020

2020 was a record year for mortgage originations, with over $4 trillion in total volume originated (page 22). While 

much of this was driven by refinances owing to ultra-low rates, purchase originations were strong as well, reflecting 

improved affordability for homebuyers. Figure 1 (right panel) shows that FHA and VA purchase volumes reached 

new records, at $186.9 billion and $131.5 billion, respectively. For VA, 2020 was also a record year in terms of loan 

count (left panel,) with nearly 432,000 purchase mortgages originated. FHA’s 2020 purchase loan count of over 

800,000 was higher than the two previous years. Overall, these numbers reflect that while low rates stimulated 

refinances for existing homeowners, they also enabled the transition into homeownership for many low- and 

moderate-income households that rely on government loans.

Figure 1: FHA and VA Volume and Loan Count, Purchase Originations

Figure 2 shows that for both FHA and VA purchase originations, the top 3 states by loan count were Texas, Florida, 

and California. Georgia and Ohio had the fourth and fifth most FHA purchase loans, while Virginia and North 

Carolina rounded out the top five for VA purchase loans.

Figure 2: FHA and VA 2020 Purchase Loans by State

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute as of March 2021.

In terms of credit characteristics, average FICO scores were up in 2020 relative to 2019, from 670 to 677 for FHA 

loans and 712 to 719 for VA loans. As Figure 3 shows, FHA lending is more skewed towards lower FICO scores than 

VA’s, reflecting FHA’s mission. 82.7 percent of FHA purchase loans had FICO scores of 720 or below, while 49.9 

percent of VA purchase loans fell in that category. While DTIs decreased slightly, from 43.6 to 43.1 for FHA and 41.4 

to 40.5 for VA, this reflects the impact of lower rates on the monthly payment--that is, lower monthly mortgage 

payments in relation to incomes. Predictably, as Figure 4 demonstrates, the average note rate for both FHA and VA 

purchase loans was much lower in 2020 than in 2019. Lastly, robust house price appreciation led to increases in loan 

amounts - the average loan amount rose from $218, 497 in 2019 to $233,573 for FHA purchase loans and from 

$279,872 in 2019 to $311,105 for VA purchase loans. These numbers represent a 6.9 percent year over increase in 

the FHA loan amount and 11.2 percent for VA loans. 

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Loan count, thousands

FHA VA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Volume, $ billions

FHA VA

FHA Purchase Loan Count VA Purchase Loan Count

Texas 100,535 Texas 47,547

Florida 81,377 Florida 40,527

California 58,539 California 27,842

Georgia 37,289 Virginia 26,807

Ohio 29,747 North Carolina 23,929

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute as of March 2021.
Figure 3: FICO Distribution of FHA and VA Purchase Loans (by count)

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute as of March 2021.

Figure 4: Note Rate and Original Loan Amount for FHA and VA Purchase Originations

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute as of March 2021.

Highlights this month:

• Year over year house price growth has been running over 10 percent since November 2020 (page 13).

• Loans originated since 2019 now comprise over half of Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding as older vintages have

refinanced in substantial numbers (page 18).

• Agency MBS average daily trading volume reached $366 billion in January 2021, surpassing the pre-crisis peak

of $345 billion in 2008 (page 50).

• Total MBS held by banks and thrifts increased from $2.3 trillion in 3Q20 to $2.5 trillion in 4Q20, continuing the

multi-year upward trend (page 52).

HIGHLIGHTS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Thousands

FHA Purchase VA Purchase

Note Rate (mean) Original Loan Amount (mean)

FHA VA FHA VA

2013 3.83% 3.77% $178,870 $234,265

2014 4.23% 4.09% $177,433 $235,562

2015 4.02% 3.83% $188,493 $243,655

2016 3.83% 3.64% $196,602 $252,846

2017 4.15% 3.91% $203,724 $261,447

2018 4.71% 4.45% $208,307 $268,837

2019 4.52% 4.21% $218,497 $279,872

2020 3.46% 3.21% $233,573 $311,105
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 27 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index—less 

than either the US Treasury share (37 percent) or the US Credit share (32 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

accounts for 10 percent of the overall index, the largest MBS component, while Freddie Mac 30-year MBS and Ginnie 

Mae 30-year MBS comprise 7 and 6 percent of the market, respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years 

comprise the remaining balance (4 percent) of the Barclays US Aggregate Index. US securities are the single largest 

contributor to the Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 36 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 10 

percent of the global aggregate.

37%

2%

32%

6%

10%

7%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

53%

9%

25%

10%

1%

2%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2%

3% 1%

36%

30%

21%

1%

0.04%

2% 0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Note: Numbers in chart may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of December 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of December 2020.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of February 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of February 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2021.

After experiencing COVID-19 related volatility in March and April of 2020, government bond yields across the 

globe gradually stabilized and have started trending up meaningfully in 2021. Yields on the 10-year treasury 

increased by 34 bps to 1.40 percent in February 2021, remaining the highest of the developed world. The yield 

on the Italian 10-year note, which was higher than the 10-year sovereign debt of the US, Japan, and Europe for 

much of 2020, increased by 12 bps to 0.76 percent. The yield on the UK 10-year bond rose by 49 bps to 0.82 

percent, while the Japanese 10-year government bond increased by 11 bps to 0.16 percent in February. The 

German 10-year yield rose by 26 bps to negative 0.26 percent in February. At the end of February 2021, the 

hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year JGB stood at 83 bps, a widening of 22 

bps from the previous month. The hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year Bund 

stood at 84 bps, an expansion of 6 bps since the end of January 2021.

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Nominal yields were up in February 2021, with GNMA II yields rising 43 bps to 1.76 percent and GNMA I 

yields up 42 bps to 1.90 percent. At the end of February, current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their 

Treasury counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 10-year Treasury yields) by 69 bps on the G2SF and 

84 bps on the GNSF, a widening of 10 and 9 bps on the G2SF and GNSF, respectively, since last month.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2021.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Japanese Yen, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the JGB 5/10 

blend at the end of February 2021. More precisely, hedged into Japanese yen, the G2SF and GNSF have a 129 

and 144 bp yield, respectively, versus the JGB 5/10 blend. This represents a 33 bp widening for G2SF and a 32 bp

widening for GNSF since the end of January 2021.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2021.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Euros, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the German 5/10 

Blend. The figures below show that at the end of February 2021, the current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged 

into euros have a 135 and 150 bp higher yield than the average of the German 5/10, respectively. This 

represents a 19 and 18 bp expansion for the G2SF and GNSF, respectively, since the end of January 2021.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Jan-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Apr-20 Sep-20 Feb-21

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2021.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Jan-19 Jun-19 Nov-19 Apr-20 Sep-20 Feb-21

U.S. Intermediate Credit - OAS US GNMA 30yr II - OAS

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Spread between Intermediate credit and 30-year GNMA MBS OAS

G2 30 MBS versus Intermediate Credit

The spread between US Intermediate Credit and GNMA II 30 year OAS skyrocketed in February 2020 in response 

to the COVID-19 panic. This was followed by substantial tightening over the remainder of 2020 and into February 

of 2021. The OAS on intermediate credit fully recovered from its enormous widening in early 2020, while the Ginnie

Mae II 30-year fell to multi-year lows. Despite this tightening, the spread between the two remains much elevated, 

ending February 2021 at 57 bps, higher than the 21 bps in January 2020, but similar to levels in mid 2019.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency ofsecurity and unhedged. 

Data as of February 2021.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most government securities with the same or longer durations. 

The only asset classes with significantly more yield are the US and Pan-Euro high yield and credit indices. 

Duration, a measure of sensitivity to interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield 

asset classes, as there is a large credit component, which has moved front and center in light of COVID-19.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.9 0.73

US 10y 9.4 1.41

GNMA II 3.0% 3.9 1.42

GNMA II 3.5% 2.8 1.45

JPY 5y 4.8 -0.07

JPY 10y 9.7 0.16

GER 5y 5.1 -0.57

GER 10y 10.0 -0.26

ITA 5y 4.9 0.15

ITA 10y 9.6 0.76

US credit 8.2 1.98

US credit >= A 8.0 1.66

US HY 3.7 4.25

Pan-Euro Corp 5.7 0.62

Pan-Euro HY 3.5 3.32

US 5y

US 10y

G2 3.5% G2 3.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Source: State Street

*A 2% max r

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.13 0.00 0.28 0.11 0.84 0.52

3 year 0.32 0.41 0.58 0.25 0.57 0.35

5 year 0.19 0.22 0.49 0.23 0.74 0.47

10 year 0.23 0.26 0.43 0.36 0.55 0.53

* ssumes 2 capitalization ma per issue

*Assumes 2% capitalization max pe is

Source: State Street

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.12 -0.01 0.27 0.17 0.83 0.57

3 year 0.21 0.30 0.47 0.30 0.46 0.41

5 year 0.10 0.13 0.40 0.29 0.65 0.53

10 year 0.18 0.21 0.39 0.39 0.50 0.56

St S

p r i suer

*A 2% on max 

Source: State Street

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.55 1.23 3.14 2.73 4.34 4.84

3 year 0.59 1.25 2.01 1.65 2.70 2.90

5 year 0.59 1.14 1.72 1.38 2.25 2.35

10 year 0.64 1.06 1.48 1.37 2.03 2.03

* ssumes 2 capitalizatiCor o ma per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Co p

Pan Euro 

Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.22 -0.01 0.09 0.06 0.19 0.12

3 year 0.35 0.24 0.23 0.18 0.17 0.14

5 year 0.18 0.11 0.23 0.21 0.29 0.22

10 year 0.29 0.20 0.26 0.29 0.25 0.28

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of February 2021.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade is less than other indices. However, the 

standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least price volatility over a 1, 

3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of risk for the Ginnie Mae index is 

highest among all asset classes over 1, 3 and 10-year horizons.
3.20%

3.04%

10.76%

5.77%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1Q074Q073Q082Q091Q104Q103Q112Q121Q134Q133Q142Q151Q164Q163Q172Q181Q194Q193Q20

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q4 2020.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

4Q20

State of the US Housing Market

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Bottom price tier Middle price tier Top price tier

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: Black Knight modified the methodology behind their HPI in February 2021, resulting in changes to 

historic price estimates. Black Knight divides home prices in each region into quintiles; this figure shows the performance of the bottom, middle and top 

quintiles. Data as of January 2021.

Serious delinquency rates for single-family GSE loans fell slightly in Q4 2020 while FHA and VA serious delinquency 

rates continued to rise but at a slower rate. The increase in delinquencies from Q2-Q4 2020 reflects the impact of 

the pandemic on mortgage payments. The bottom chart shows nationwide house prices for the bottom, middle and 

the top quintiles by price. House prices escalated significantly in the second half on 2020. Prices have risen most at 

the lower end of the market where Ginnie Mae plays a major role. Prices at the lower end of the market rose by 12.6 

percent for 12 months ended January 2021, higher than the 11.1 percent for the top end of the market. Year-overyear price growth in January 2021 was higher than in December 2020 for all price tiers.

12.6%

11.9%

11.1%
State of the US Housing Market

bt,

ehold

De

hous

mortg

$9,833

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: 

rtgages,

Black Knight modified the methodology behind their HPI in February 2021, resulting in changes to historic price 

estimates. HPI data as of January 2021. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when HPI reached the highest level for each 

state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to the lowest level for each state/US after 

the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 1/2021, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 71.2 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis peak 

valuation on a nominal basis by 27.9 percent. The picture is very different across states, with most states well in excess of 

the prior peak; two states remain below their 2007 peak, with Illinois, at 3.7 percent below peak level, the most underwater.

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 74.9% -25.3% 71.2% 11.2% 27.9%

Alabama 35.9% -15.3% 44.9% 10.9% 22.7%

Alaska 69.1% -3.0% 30.2% 7.6% 26.3%

Arizona 110.2% -47.9% 116.9% 16.7% 13.0%

Arkansas 41.4% -9.7% 34.3% 10.4% 21.3%

California 154.6% -43.3% 113.7% 11.6% 21.2%

Colorado 40.4% -12.9% 102.3% 12.2% 76.2%

Connecticut 92.0% -24.8% 30.0% 13.5% -2.3%

Delaware 94.0% -23.7% 44.8% 12.2% 10.5%

District of Columbia 174.2% -13.9% 64.0% 5.6% 41.3%

Florida 128.3% -46.9% 90.6% 10.7% 1.2%

Georgia 38.3% -31.5% 86.0% 12.9% 27.5%

Hawaii 163.0% -22.6% 62.0% 7.1% 25.4%

Idaho 71.8% -28.7% 132.5% 22.6% 65.8%

Illinois 61.6% -34.4% 46.8% 7.0% -3.7%

Indiana 21.6% -8.0% 51.4% 11.2% 39.3%

Iowa 28.5% -4.8% 35.3% 8.3% 28.8%

Kansas 34.5% -9.2% 57.3% 10.4% 42.8%

Kentucky 29.6% -7.7% 48.4% 12.2% 37.0%

Louisiana 48.5% -5.3% 29.4% 6.0% 22.6%

Maine 82.0% -12.4% 56.4% 11.6% 37.0%

Maryland 129.4% -28.8% 41.8% 11.9% 0.9%

Massachusetts 92.4% -22.6% 72.4% 11.2% 33.3%

Michigan 23.9% -39.5% 97.2% 12.2% 19.3%

Minnesota 66.6% -28.0% 69.1% 9.0% 21.8%

Mississippi 41.2% -13.9% 37.1% 6.4% 18.1%

Missouri 42.6% -15.4% 50.7% 10.4% 27.4%

Montana 82.7% -11.6% 72.8% 15.6% 52.7%

Nebraska 26.6% -6.8% 55.9% 10.1% 45.4%

Nevada 126.8% -59.0% 145.8% 11.0% 0.7%

New Hampshire 91.1% -23.3% 64.5% 16.0% 26.1%

New Jersey 117.7% -28.1% 42.7% 12.5% 2.7%

New Mexico 66.6% -16.4% 40.8% 11.7% 17.7%

New York 98.6% -15.3% 53.5% 8.6% 30.1%

North Carolina 40.6% -16.1% 55.8% 12.8% 30.7%

North Dakota 53.1% -3.8% 60.7% 6.7% 54.6%

Ohio 21.2% -18.6% 54.5% 13.3% 25.8%

Oklahoma 37.4% -2.6% 31.5% 9.1% 28.0%

Oregon 81.9% -28.2% 103.8% 13.5% 46.3%

Pennsylvania 70.2% -11.8% 38.2% 10.4% 21.9%

Rhode Island 130.2% -34.6% 74.8% 13.7% 14.2%

South Carolina 44.9% -19.7% 50.0% 10.2% 20.5%

South Dakota 45.3% -3.7% 57.9% 8.6% 52.0%

Tennessee 35.0% -11.9% 65.6% 13.3% 45.8%

Texas 33.5% -5.8% 64.3% 9.0% 54.8%

Utah 55.0% -22.2% 105.5% 15.8% 59.8%

Vermont 81.3% -9.2% 40.4% 18.8% 27.6%

Virginia 100.0% -23.0% 40.8% 10.2% 8.5%

Washington 84.9% -28.7% 116.3% 14.8% 54.2%

West Virginia 40.4% -5.8% 34.1% 9.6% 26.3%

Wisconsin 44.8% -16.4% 49.4% 11.1% 24.9%

Wyoming 77.9% -7.4% 45.2% 9.8% 34.4%
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgages,

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg.

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000) GNMA Share GNMA Loan Count

GNMA Avg. 

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000)

National 24.2% 2,953,708 258.2 282.6 23.9% 11,031,329 165.0 205.1

Alabama 37.3% 54,981 199.9 222.8 38.4% 235,409 129.3 162.5

Alaska 46.0% 9,592 313.0 280.3 44.2% 37,330 232.6 209.8

Arizona 25.5% 110,086 253.2 258.2 22.6% 300,306 169.7 198.1

Arkansas 34.8% 29,568 170.8 202.1 37.7% 138,200 111.3 147.4

California 16.7% 267,188 397.3 391.9 14.5% 735,172 269.3 296.4

Colorado 24.1% 90,833 336.2 321.3 20.1% 229,364 230.7 250.9

Connecticut 23.2% 23,800 242.3 269.2 24.2% 106,915 180.4 197.6

Delaware 29.8% 12,993 243.3 260.9 30.4% 51,581 179.8 194.8

District of Columbia 12.9% 2,606 512.8 443.2 10.8% 9,187 299.4 331.2

Florida 34.6% 252,832 248.0 250.3 29.9% 845,972 172.8 186.0

Georgia 32.5% 135,019 221.1 253.1 32.0% 507,463 146.8 184.3

Hawaii 40.7% 14,334 554.5 441.7 24.0% 32,683 384.9 333.8

Idaho 23.7% 22,543 258.1 252.1 22.9% 74,066 163.9 192.3

Illinois 17.1% 80,977 205.6 236.8 19.9% 359,447 139.8 169.1

Indiana 26.1% 67,699 173.0 193.3 29.8% 293,057 112.0 137.6

Iowa 16.3% 17,400 175.9 197.2 20.6% 84,733 114.7 141.2

Kansas 24.1% 21,657 185.8 214.7 28.4% 101,137 119.9 151.1

Kentucky 29.6% 38,241 180.9 200.5 32.7% 166,314 121.8 143.3

Louisiana 34.5% 43,226 196.4 229.7 36.6% 189,607 138.2 168.0

Maine 23.8% 10,223 213.7 238.3 25.2% 39,714 152.8 175.4

Maryland 33.9% 86,142 328.1 316.4 31.1% 293,264 228.8 233.2

Massachusetts 13.7% 33,785 335.5 341.1 14.3% 118,664 241.1 251.9

Michigan 16.0% 63,284 175.4 205.2 19.7% 292,654 114.0 145.4

Minnesota 15.7% 41,658 234.2 248.6 17.3% 173,974 156.5 184.8

Mississippi 42.4% 24,336 181.5 205.5 45.3% 117,076 122.0 149.7

Missouri 24.2% 58,260 183.7 209.8 28.4% 256,992 120.8 149.8

Montana 23.8% 9,985 257.0 260.0 22.4% 35,402 171.5 194.5

Nebraska 22.9% 15,531 199.6 205.1 25.8% 69,668 123.6 148.8

Nevada 33.6% 51,117 289.0 269.5 26.9% 137,184 198.2 209.2

New Hampshire 21.7% 11,760 271.2 265.7 22.2% 42,507 194.8 197.1

New Jersey 18.9% 59,099 286.2 321.7 20.6% 237,135 209.2 236.9

New Mexico 35.9% 21,655 214.1 226.4 36.2% 97,023 140.9 163.0

New York 17.2% 46,970 283.3 317.8 20.4% 316,707 185.1 227.9

North Carolina 28.2% 113,854 220.9 250.0 27.4% 426,923 143.5 180.7

North Dakota 20.7% 4,606 236.8 232.7 20.9% 16,726 168.9 176.5

Ohio 24.7% 89,464 173.2 195.2 28.8% 436,809 112.3 137.0

Oklahoma 38.9% 38,269 185.5 205.9 41.5% 193,445 120.1 148.9

Oregon 20.2% 40,089 300.4 299.4 17.7% 121,203 206.7 228.3

Pennsylvania 22.6% 77,646 196.5 238.4 26.4% 404,742 134.0 168.4

Rhode Island 26.2% 9,428 268.2 261.6 27.3% 36,030 194.1 197.4

South Carolina 33.8% 66,574 222.4 236.2 31.4% 230,673 150.2 173.7

South Dakota 23.9% 8,113 212.9 218.7 27.4% 30,415 144.1 165.3

Tennessee 30.8% 74,892 223.0 245.7 31.5% 289,170 142.1 181.3

Texas 31.4% 281,539 235.1 258.3 29.7% 1,080,831 149.0 189.4

Utah 18.0% 39,685 294.7 290.2 18.2% 113,741 201.3 234.4

Vermont 18.2% 2,886 220.4 237.4 17.3% 12,583 163.4 167.9

Virginia 35.5% 135,211 326.7 323.0 31.9% 442,446 214.8 234.4

Washington 21.8% 88,853 339.2 347.7 19.3% 256,184 227.0 260.8

West Virginia 41.2% 12,601 184.0 189.5 41.1% 56,397 125.9 134.5

Wisconsin 14.4% 32,872 199.2 212.1 15.9% 130,912 133.9 152.4

Wyoming 33.3% 7,746 244.0 248.2 32.5% 26,192 178.4 188.8

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of January 2021. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 

months, from January 2020 to January 2021.

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 23.9 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 24.2 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 10.8 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 45.3 percent in 

Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.
State of the US Housing Market

$11.5

$21.8

$33.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q3

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt Household equity Total Value

$0.43

$0.46

$7.30

$3.37

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q3

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Home Equity loans Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, eMBS and Urban Institute. Last updated December 2020. 

Note Top: Single family includes 1-4 family mortgages. The home equity number is grossed up from Fed totals to include the value of households and 

the non-financial business sector. Note Bottom: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, credit 

unions and other financial companies. 

The Federal Reserve’s Flow of Fund Report has indicated a gradually increasing total value of the housing market, 

driven primarily by growing home equity since 2012. The Q3 2020 numbers show that while mortgage debt 

outstanding remained steady at $11.5 trillion, total home equity grew slightly from $21.5 trillion in Q2 2020 to 

$21.8 trillion in the third quarter of 2020, bringing the total value of the housing market to $33.3 trillion, 30.3 

percent higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Agency MBS account for 63.4 percent of the total mortgage debt 

outstanding, private-label securities make up 3.7 percent, and unsecuritized first liens make up 28.9 percent. 

Home equity loans comprise the remaining 4.0 percent of the total.
State of the US Housing Market

As of January 2021, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $7.59 trillion: 42.5 percent Fannie Mae, 

30.4 percent Freddie Mac, and 27.1 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA 

have grown very rapidly since 2009, although since May 2020, FHA has contracted. FHA comprises 55.3 percent of 

total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 38.9 percent. Note that during the pandemic the GSEs 

have been growing faster than Ginnie Mae, courtesy of borrowers with home prices appreciating moving from FHA 

to conventional refinances and saving on the mortgage insurance premium.

$3.23

$2.05

$2.31

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

$1.1

$0.8

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of January 2021.
3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Outstanding Volume Share <3.0 3.0-3.49 3.5-4.0 >4.0 Avg Coup Avg. Coup

State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of January 2021. Average coupon is weighted by remaining principal balance. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of January 2021.

As of January 2021, the average coupon on outstanding Ginnie Mae pools was 3.26 percent, declining steadily 

over time. The share of outstanding MBS pools with coupons below 3.0 percent has grown exponentially in 2020 

due to plummeting rates. The bottom chart shows that loans originated since 2019 now comprise the majority, 

51.9 percent of outstanding as older vintages continue to refinance in substantial numbers.

Outstanding Ginnie Balance, by Coupon

Outstanding Ginnie Volume, by Vintage

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Pre-2008 2008-2013 2014-2018 2019-Present Outstanding Volume Share
Debt,

$9,833

mortgages,

household

State of the US Housing Market

In January 2021, a total of 747,102 Ginnie Mae loans were in forbearance, 18,081 of which were removed from 

pools (i.e. liquidated) during the month. Most liquidated loans (14,733) were FHA. Forborne loans removed from 

pools in January 2021 had measurably higher note rates and lower outstanding loan balances, and were more likely 

to be purchase loans than forborne loans that remain in pools.

All loans in forbearance – January 2021

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share Purchase Share Loan Count

Ginnie 660 4.0 $171,458 77.7% 70.7% 747,102

Bank 675 4.1 $134,384 73.9% 77.2% 104,557

Nonbank 658 4.0 $177,412 78.2% 69.8% 642,545

FHA 657 4.1 $168,925 78.3% 72.8% 552,222

Bank 669 4.2 $124,721 74.9% 79.5% 77,282

Nonbank 655 4.1 $176,156 78.8% 71.9% 474,940

VA 668 3.8 $217,564 69.7% 51.0% 133,088

Bank 685 3.8 $194,620 67.8% 65.7% 21,154

Nonbank 665 3.8 $221,601 70.2% 48.2% 111,934

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021. *Averages weighted by remaining principal balance of loans.

Loans in forbearance and removed from pools – January 2021

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share PurchaseShare Loan Count

Ginnie 664 4.2 $159,000 74.3% 75.5% 18,081

Bank 677 4.2 $137,000 75.4% 82.7% 9,075

Nonbank 655 4.2 $185,000 73.3% 69.5% 9,006

FHA 659 4.3 $152,000 75.2% 77.4% 14,733

Bank 674 4.3 $132,935 76.5% 85.2% 7,203

Nonbank 649 4.3 $175,000 74.0% 71.6% 7,530

VA 680 3.8 $221,000 65.7% 58.9% 2,543

Bank 688 3.9 $190,124 65.0% 63.9% 1,258

Nonbank 675 3.8 $249,000 66.3% 54.5% 1,285

Loans in forbearance that remain in pools – January 2021

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share PurchaseShare Loan Count

Ginnie 660 4.0 $172,091 77.7% 70.6% 728,892

Bank 674 4.1 $135,627 73.7% 76.9% 95,929

Nonbank 658 4.0 $177,482 78.3% 69.8% 632,963

FHA 657 4.1 $169,713 78.3% 72.7% 537,371

Bank 668 4.2 $125,385 74.6% 79.2% 70,431

Nonbank 655 4.1 $176,392 78.9% 71.9% 466,940

VA 668 3.8 $217,727 69.8% 50.8% 130,535

Bank 685 3.8 $196,147 67.9% 65.8% 19,931

Nonbank 665 3.8 $221,338 70.3% 48.1% 110,604
State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of January 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

The share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance is higher for nonbank issuers than for bank issuers for two reasons: 

(1) more recent origination is more likely to be forborne and comprises a larger share of the non-bank servicing 

portfolio, and (2) banks have been more aggressive in buying forborne loans out of Ginnie Mae pools. Delinquent 

buyouts by nonbank issuers continue to remain muted relative to total nonbank loans removed from pools, but 

have edged up compared to delinquent buyouts by bank issuers (bottom charts, yellow areas).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

Bank Issuers

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

Nonbank Issuers

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Bank Forbearance Nonbank Forbearance All Forbearance Forbearance Share

Share of Ginnie Mae Loans in Forbearance
State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of January 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Ginnie Mae delinquent loans bought out of pools are more likely to be FHA than VA (top charts, yellow areas) 

and more likely to be higher coupons (bottom chart). In January 2021, 34,568 FHA and 2,678 VA loans were 

bought out. (These counts include all delinquent buyouts, regardless of forbearance status). Despite the 

increase in buyout activity during the pandemic, the vast majority of loans removed from pools have been 

payoffs triggered by ultra-low rates (blue areas).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

FHA

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

VA

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Number of Loans Removed from Pools by Coupon

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

<3.5 Other

<3.5 Loss Mitigation

<3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

<3.5 Mortgagor Payoff

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21

>=3.5 Other

>=3.5 Loss Mitigation

>=3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

>=3.5 Mortgagor Payoff

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.
State of the US Housing Market

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume

Portfolio PLS securitization FHA/VA securitization GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

First Lien Origination Share

2020 was a record year for first-lien originations with $4.04 trillion in mortgages originated during the year. This 

number exceeds the 2003 volume of $3.73 trillion, the previous record holder, by $315 billion. The share of 

portfolio originations was 21.5 percent in 2020, a substantial decline from the 35.9 percent share in 2019. The 

2020 GSE share was up significantly at 59.2 percent, compared to 42.9 percent in 2019. The FHA/VA share at the 

end of 2020 was 18.4 percent, down one percentage point compared to last year. The PLS share was 0.9 percent in 

2020, down from 1.9 percent one year ago, and a fraction of its share in the pre-bubble years. The smaller share of 

portfolio and PLS in 2020 reflects the impact of COVID-19, which made it difficult to originate mortgages without 

government support. The higher GSE share reflects the large amount of refinances done through this channel.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2020. 

21.5%

0.90%

18.4%

59.2%

$0.869

$0.038

$0.742

$2.390
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgages,

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 $266.9 $225.7 $16.0 $508.6

2020 $327.0 $423.5 $24.9 $775.4

2021 YTD $30.7 $45.4 $2.1 $78.2

2021 % Change YOY 10.3% 70.4% 36.2% 39.6%

2021 Ann. $368.1 $544.2 $25.5 $937.8

 

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 $597.4 $445.2 $1,042.6 $508.6 $1,551.2

2020 $1,343.4 $1,064.1 $2,407.5 $775.4 $3,182.9

2021 YTD $141.6 $117.3 $258.9 $78.2 $337.1

2020 % Change YOY 129.6% 128.3% 129.0% 39.6% 99.4%

2021 Ann. $1,699.6 $1,407.5 $3,107.0 $937.8 $4,044.8

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of January 2021.

Agency gross issuance in 2020 was historic at $3.18 trillion, surpassing every full year of agency origination in the 21st century, 

including the previous high of $2.09 trillion in 2003. 2020 agency issuance finished $1.63 trillion dollars higher than 2019 full 

year volume of $1.55 trillion, up 105.2 percent. Ginnie Mae gross issuance for the year was up by 52.5 percent and GSE gross 

issuance was up by 130.9 percent. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA was up by 22.5 percent and VA origination was up by 

87.6 percent; 2020 was the first year VA production was higher than FHA production. Strong agency issuance continues in 

2021, with a total of $337.1 billion issued in January, up 99.4 percent compared to January 2020.
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgages,

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 $35.9 $58.0 $1.9 $95.7

2020 -$52.5 $71.0 $1.3 $19.9

2021 -$10.7 $4.9 -$0.7 -$6.5

2021 % Change YOY -666.1% -24.4% -361.9% -175.8%

2021 Ann. -$128.5 $58.4 -$8.0 -$78.0

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $53.5 $11.8 $65.3 $89.6 $154.9

2014 -$4.0 $30.0 $26.0 $61.6 $87.7

2015 $3.5 $65.0 $68.4 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $60.5 $66.8 $127.4 $126.1 $261.6

2017 $83.7 $77.0 $160.7 $132.3 $293.0

2018 $81.9 $67.6 $149.4 $112.0 $261.5

2019 $87.4 $110.3 $197.8 $95.7 $293.5

2020 $289.3 $343.5 $632.8 $19.9 $652.7

2021 $25.9 $37.9 $63.8 -$6.5 $57.3

2021 % Change YOY 184.9% 129.4% 149.1% -175.8% 67.5%

2021 Ann. $310.7 $454.5 $765.2 -$78.0 $687.1

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian 

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of January 2021.

2020 proved to be very robust for agency net issuance, with $652.7 billion of net new supply, up 122.4 percent 

compared with the same period of 2019. 2020 Ginnie Mae net issuance in 2020 was $19.9 billion, comprising 3.0 

percent of total agency net issuance. This is down substantially from 2019 levels, reflecting a contraction in FHA 

securities outstanding; in the first month of 2021 Ginnie Mae net issuance was -$6.5 billion, driven by FHA contraction.
US Agency Market, Originations

De t,

 

bt

hol

r ges

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

house ld

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of December 2020.

mortga ,

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates rise, increasing when 

interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the same 

month in previous years. The January 2021 gross agency issuance of $337.1 continued the trend of historically 

high volume in monthly issuance from the end of 2020 and was significantly higher than the same month in 2020, 

as the impact of lower rates on volume was not seen until April of 2020.

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.1 $0.2 $7.7 $20.0

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.3 $2.2 $7.1 $17.6

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $6.3 $14.1

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.0 $8.8 $16.5

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $5.1 $7.2 $10.5 $22.8

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.5 $6.8 $10.3 $19.6

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $10.4 $18.3

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $15.8 $7.9 $12.5 $36.1

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.9 $6.2 $9.0 $21.1

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $9.7 $7.1 $11.4 $28.2

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $3.6 $11.0 $9.8 $24.4

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $8.2 $22.8

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.9 $2.5 $9.2 $17.6

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.4 $3.4 $4.6 $9.3

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.8 $10.3 $5.6 $17.6

Apr-19 $33.1 $30.8 $32.9 $96.8 $1.3 $10.8 $8.3 $20.4

May-19 $44.5 $34.3 $38.8 $117.6 $6.7 $9.8 $9.4 $26.0

Jun-19 $44.6 $34.0 $43.3 $121.9 $1.9 $5.9 $9.0 $16.8

Jul-19 $51.7 $36.9 $45.9 $134.5 $10.9 $10.1 $11.0 $32.0

Aug-19 $71.1 $50.4 $51.2 $172.6 $20.8 $17.1 $8.7 $46.6

Sep-19 $67.1 $43.0 $52.0 $162.1 $14.1 $7.5 $6.5 $28.0

Oct-19 $65.0 $46.2 $58.4 $169.6 $7.4 $7.1 $11.9 $26.5

Nov-19 $68.1 $50.7 $54.3 $173.1 $5.2 $8.6 $4.1 $18.0

Dec-19 $62.1 $52.5 $52.7 $167.3 $10.1 $17.3 $7.4 $34.7

Jan-20 $61.7 $51.4 $56.0 $169.0 $9.1 $16.5 $8.6 $34.2

Feb-20 $56.5 $39.5 $51.2 $147.2 $9.4 $7.9 $7.1 $24.4

Mar-20 $69.5 $41.1 $53.0 $163.9 $17.9 $6.3 $8.8 $33.0

Apr-20 $101.6 $76.3 $61.4 $239.3 $30.5 $27.5 $10.2 $68.2

May-20 $124.3 $70.6 $60.8 $255.7 $35.2 $8.2 $5.7 $49.1

Jun-20 $118.9 $78.1 $58.5 $255.4 $30.0 $15.9 $1.3 $47.2

Jul-20 $125.0 $108.1 $66.5 $299.5 $23.4 $38.0 -$15.5 $45.9

Aug-20 $137.6 $113.6 $73.6 $324.8 $34.2 $43.4 -$4.1 $73.5

Sep-20 $122.9 $102.1 $72.4 $297.5 $16.5 $29.9 $1.0 $47.5

Oct-20 $142.3 $124.8 $72.6 $339.7 $28.9 $48.3 -$0.3 $76.9

Nov-20 $152.4 $131.5 $72.6 $356.5 $31.4 $48.4 -$4.5 $75.3

Dec-20 $130.8 $126.7 $76.9 $334.4 $22.8 $53.1 $1.7 $77.5

Jan-21 $141.6 $117.3 $78.2 $337.1 $25.9 $37.9 -$6.5 $57.3

Monthly Agency Issuance
$0.1

$37.4

$15.2

$1.2 $0.0

$4.5

$3.6

$0.6 $0.1

$12.3

$2.4

$0.3

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

<=1.5 2 2.5 >=3.0

Streamlined Cash-out Not streamlined, not cash-out

Coupon

$ billions

Ginnie Mae Refinance Issuance by Type: YTD 2021

US Agency Market, Originations

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of January 2021.

The FHA refinance share stood at 41.4 percent in January 2021, below the 73.1 percent refi share for Freddie 

originations, the 72.0 percent share for Fannie, and the 73.8 percent share for the VA. The total Ginnie refinance 

share stood at 56.7 percent in January. Refinances as a share of all originations grew during 2019 and 2020 as 

interest rates fell. Refinances have declined slightly from their peaks but remain at high levels. The bottom section 

shows that most of January 2021 Ginnie Mae refinances, predominantly streamlined, were securitized in 2-2.5 

coupon pools. Cash-out refinance volume remains muted due to restrictions Ginnie Mae put in place in late 2019, 

to combat the “churning” problem.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Percent Refi at Issuance

Refishare Freddie Fannie Ginnie FHA VA

74%

73%

72%

57%

41%

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of January 2021.
Credit Box

37.7%

44.3%

68.9%

50.5%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19 Mar-20 Aug-20 Jan-21

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 68.9 percent in January 2021, down from 

70.5 percent in January 2020. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of the Ginnie Mae 

purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 44.3 percent and 

37.7 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase originations, respectively. The bottom table shows that 

based on mortgages originated in January 2021, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an 

average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a higher LTV, a similar DTI, and pay a 

slightly higher rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 307,958 322,965 292,423 311,250 247,398 303,775 275,574 313,368 

Credit Score 749.4 759.0 746.3 756.2 688.0 704.6 720.8 743.9 

LTV (%) 86.8 79.3 87.6 78.9 96.9 95.8 91.6 83.4 

DTI (%) 34.0 34.8 34.6 35.6 41.4 41.9 37.5 36.9 

Loan Rate (%) 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of January 2021. 
Credit Box

76.6%

50.9%

79.7%

68.9%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19 Mar-20 Aug-20 Jan-21

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Breakdown

 

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 

2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it 

consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuerreported LTV. Data as of January 2021.

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 76.6 percent of FHA loans, 50.9 percent of VA loans, and 79.7 percent 

of other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in January 2021. The bottom table shows that 

based on mortgages originated in January 2021, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an 

average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a higher LTV, a similar DTI, and pay a 

slightly higher rate.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 240,669 253,716 298,795 363,547 174,640 185,563 247,398 303,775 

Credit Score 677.7 676.1 712.8 731.0 700.5 703.6 688.0 704.6 

LTV (%) 95.5 94.1 99.8 97.0 99.3 99.3 96.9 95.8 

DTI (%) 43.0 43.6 39.6 41.0 34.9 35.3 41.4 41.9 

Loan Rate (%) 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.8 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Includes only purchase loans. Data as of January 2021.
t,

rtgages,

house

mortg

$9,833

hold

Deb

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 360,419 655 715 743 781 800 735 

Fannie 138,153 691 735 761 794 802 753 

Freddie 103,847 697 729 765 790 803 757 

Ginnie 118,419 633 653 683 730 774 693 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 746,742 687 726 768 793 806 756 

Fannie 356,230 702 740 774 796 808 763 

Freddie 282,832 698 733 770 793 806 760 

Ginnie 107,680 644 674 720 772 798 720 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,107,161 673 715 761 790 804 749 

Fannie 494,383 699 735 771 794 806 761 

Freddie 386,679 698 732 769 792 805 759 

Ginnie 226,099 637 661 699 754 790 706 

 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 118,419 633 653 683 730 774 693 

FHA 71,280 627 646 670 702 741 677 

VA 36,875 647 676 722 771 796 722 

Other 10,264 645 663 695 735 770 701 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 107,680 644 674 720 772 798 720 

FHA 29,094 627 649 675 707 748 680 

VA 77,690 658 694 744 783 802 735 

Other 896 657 678 715 756 784 714 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 226,099 637 661 699 754 790 706 

FHA 100,374 627 647 671 704 743 678 

VA 114,565 654 688 737 780 801 731 

Other 11,160 646 664 696 737 771 702 

January 2021 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of January 2021.

In January 2021, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 699 versus 771 for Fannie Mae and 769 for Freddie Mac. 

Note that the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 637 for Ginnie Mae, versus 699 for Fannie Mae and 698 for 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 671, VA loans have a median 

FICO score of 737 and other loans have a median FICO score of 696.
January 2021 Credit Box at a Glance

s old

m rtgages,

Debt,

hou eh

or

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 360,436 71.0 80.0 93.0 96.5 100.0 86.8 

Fannie 138,004 64.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 82.3 

Freddie 103,868 64.0 77.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 81.6 

Ginnie 118,564 94.0 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.5 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 785,728 43.0 56.0 70.0 80.0 90.1 67.6 

Fannie 356,227 40.0 52.0 65.0 75.0 80.0 62.7 

Freddie 282,848 42.0 55.0 67.0 75.0 80.0 64.4 

Ginnie 146,653 66.7 79.8 89.7 96.7 99.7 85.9 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,146,164 47.0 60.0 75.0 90.0 96.5 73.6 

Fannie 494,231 43.0 56.0 70.0 80.0 92.0 68.2 

Freddie 386,716 45.0 59.0 71.0 80.0 90.0 69.0 

Ginnie 265,217 74.3 86.4 96.3 97.9 100.2 90.7 

 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 118,564 94.0 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.5 

FHA 71,373 93.9 95.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.2 

VA 36,900 92.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.3 98.4 

Other 10,291 96.1 99.4 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.3 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 146,653 66.7 79.8 89.7 96.7 99.7 85.9 

FHA 47,419 74.1 81.4 91.0 96.4 97.7 87.6 

VA 98,292 63.5 77.6 88.9 97.0 100.4 85.1 

Other 942 77.3 86.3 95.4 99.9 101.0 91.6 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 265,217 74.3 86.4 96.3 97.9 100.2 90.7 

FHA 118,792 81.1 91.4 96.5 96.5 96.7 92.2

VA 135,192 67.6 81.9 93.4 100.0 101.5 88.7 

Other 11,233 93.9 99.1 101.0 101.0 101.0 98.7 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of January 2021.

In January 2021, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.3 percent for Ginnie Mae, compared to 70 percent for 

Fannie Mae and 71 percent for Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 100.2 percent for Ginnie Mae, versus 92 

percent for Fannie and 90 percent for Freddie. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 

93.4 for VA and 101.0 for other programs.
De

mortgages,

hous

rt

$9,833

ehold

bt,

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 359,885 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 49.0 37.0 

Fannie 138,222 21.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 47.0 35.0 

Freddie 103,865 21.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 46.0 34.4 

Ginnie 117,798 28.4 35.2 42.4 48.7 53.7 41.5 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 676,462 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 46.0 32.7 

Fannie 356,200 18.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.3 

Freddie 282,833 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.6 

Ginnie 37,429 22.3 30.0 37.7 46.2 52.4 37.5 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,036,347 20.0 26.6 35.0 42.0 47.0 34.2 

Fannie 494,422 19.0 25.0 34.0 41.0 46.0 33.0 

Freddie 386,698 19.0 26.0 34.0 41.0 45.0 33.1 

Ginnie 155,227 26.8 33.7 41.5 48.2 53.5 40.6 

 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 117,798 28.4 35.2 42.4 48.7 53.7 41.5 

FHA 71,097 30.8 37.5 44.2 49.8 54.2 43.1 

VA 36,421 26.2 33.1 40.9 47.8 53.4 40.3

Other 10,280 25.5 30.4 35.9 40.2 43.3 35.0 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 37,429 22.3 30.0 37.7 46.2 52.4 37.5 

FHA 15,253 26.6 33.2 41.7 48.5 53.6 40.6 

VA 21,639 20.3 27.9 35.0 44.0 50.8 35.6 

Other 537 16.5 22.9 29.0 34.9 40.9 29.1 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 155,227 26.8 33.7 41.5 48.2 53.5 40.6 

FHA 86,350 30.0 36.8 43.8 49.6 54.2 42.7 

VA 58,060 23.7 31.1 39.0 46.6 52.6 38.5 

Other 10,817 24.9 30.0 35.6 40.1 43.2 34.7 

January 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of January 2021.

In January 2021, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 41.5 percent, considerably higher than the 

34.0 percent median DTI for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 53.5 

percent, also much higher than the 46.0 percent DTI for Fannie Mae and 45.0 percent for Freddie Mac. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 43.8 percent, versus 39.0 percent for VA and 35.6 percent for 

other lending programs.
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

769

771

699

761

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

May-15Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20Sep-20 Jan-21

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of January 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in January 2021 was 761, up considerably since the 

start of 2019, owing to the refinance wave, which higher FICO borrowers take advantage of with greater 

frequency. In addition, the increases in refinance activity have been much more dramatic at the GSEs than at 

Ginnie Mae, shifting the composition toward higher FICO score borrowers. Note since early 2019, the median 

FICO scores for Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie borrowers have moved up for both purchase and refinance loans, 

although refinance FICOs have started to dip a bit. The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrower 

FICOs is considerably wider for purchase loans than for refi loans.
Credit Box: Historical

96.3

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

The median LTV for Ginnie Mae loans was 96.3 percent in January 2021, much higher than the 71 percent LTV 

for Freddie Mac and 70 percent for Fannie Mae. Median debt-to-income ratios for Ginnie Mae loans have 

historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher than for the GSEs. DTIs increased in the 2017-2018 period 

for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with the movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are 

very typical in an environment of rising interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies witnessed 

measurable declines in DTI, beginning in early 2019, driven by lower interest rates, with larger declines in GSE 

securities.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of January 2021.

75.0

71.0

70.0

34.0

41.5

35.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI
Credit Box: Historical

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94

FHA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=660 DTI <=45, FICO>660

DTI>45, FICO <=660 DTI>45, FICO>660

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94

VA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=700 DTI <=45, FICO>700

DTI>45, FICO <=700 DTI>45, FICO>700

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of February 2020.

DTI is a much weaker predictor of performance than FICO score. The top chart shows FHA borrowers with higher 

DTIs do default more than those with lower DTIs, but the differences are modest, as evidenced by the fact that the 

black line is very close to the blue line and the grey line is not that much above the yellow line. By contrast, FICO 

makes a much larger difference, as can be seen by comparing the blue line to the yellow line or the black line to the 

gray line. And low DTI/low FICO borrowers default much less than high DTI/high FICO borrowers, as can be seen 

by comparing the blue line to the gray line. The bottom chart, for VA borrowers illustrates the same point; DTI is a 

much weaker predictor of loan performance than credit score.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of February 2020.
95%

81%

57%

40%

30%

96%

86%

58%

35%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

94%

81%

59%

41%

32%

94%

84%

57%

34%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

December 2018- February 2019 December 2020- February 2021

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

98%

93%

79%

61%

47%

99% 98% 94%

64%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In December 2020- February 

2021, Ginnie Mae accounted for 94 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, 

compared to just 27 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI 

bucket looks a lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In December 2020− February 2021, Ginnie Mae’s share 

of issuance was higher for DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share 

of loans with a DTI of 45 and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 94 percent; it was 57-58 percent for the same 

FICO in the lower DTI buckets. Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear the GSEs have stepped up their 

higher LTV lending for borrowers with FICOs of 700 or higher for DTIs less than 45 (the less than 35 and the 35-

45 buckets).
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

December 2018-February 2019

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.8% 4.3% 2.3% 6.2% 7.9% 23.5%

35 −45 5.5% 8.7% 4.7% 11.2% 9.9% 40.0%

≥ 45 5.5% 9.5% 4.7% 9.8% 7.0% 36.5%

All 13.8% 22.6% 11.7% 27.2% 24.7% 100.0%

December 2020-February 2021

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 1.7% 4.6% 3.0% 8.9% 13.1% 31.3%

35 −45 3.0% 8.5% 4.9% 12.9% 12.7% 42.0%

≥ 45 2.6% 7.1% 3.3% 7.7% 6.1% 26.7%

All 7.2% 20.2% 11.2% 29.6% 31.8% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

December 2018- February 2019 69.8% 21.8% 38.1%

December 2020- February 2021 65.2% 9.0% 17.2%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 65.2 percent of its issuances in the December 2020- February 

2021 period having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 9.0 percent for the GSEs. Both the GSEs and Ginnie Mae 

have decreased their high-LTV lending share from December 2018− February 2019, with the GSEs falling more 

dramatically from 21.8 percent. The share of high-LTV agency loans going to highest FICO borrowers (i.e. above 

750) has increased from the December 2018- February 2019 period to the December 2020- February 2021 

period, as has the share of lower DTI borrowers (below 35).
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of January 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of January 2021.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

93.3%

77.0%

73.0%

72.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

May-14

Oct-14

Mar-15

Aug-15

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

May-14

Oct-14

Mar-15

Aug-15

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

The nonbank origination share has been rising steadily for all three agencies since 2013. The Ginnie Mae 

nonbank share has been consistently higher than the GSEs, standing at 93.3 percent in January 2021, a new 

record high. Fannie and Freddie’s nonbank shares both declined slightly in January, standing at 73.0 percent and 

72.1 percent respectively (note that these numbers can be volatile on a month-to-month basis). Ginnie Mae, 

Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all have higher nonbank origination shares for refi activity than for purchase 

activity. Freddie Mac’s nonbank share is the lowest among the three agencies for purchase loans, while Fannie 

Mae’s nonbank share is the lowest for refi loans.
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of January 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of January 2021.

In January 2021, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share rose very slightly to 93.3 percent. The nonbank originator share 

for FHA also rose slightly to 93.9 percent in January, up very marginally from the previous month. The nonbank 

originator share for VA was higher than last month at 93.0 percent and the nonbank originator share for other 

loans, which can fluctuate quite a bit month to month, rose to 92.0 percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

May-14

Oct-14

Mar-15

Aug-15

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

May-14

Oct-14

Mar-15

Aug-15

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

May-14

Oct-14

Mar-15

Aug-15

Jan-16

Jun-16

Nov-16

Apr-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Jul-18

Dec-18

May-19

Oct-19

Mar-20

Aug-20

Jan-21

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

94%

93%

92%
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of January 2021.

761

770

758

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

780

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. FICO scores for loans originated by 

nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, where the differentials between banks and 

non-banks are small, FICO scores for both have increased since early 2014. The sharp rise in bank and non-bank FICOs 

reflects an increase in GSE refinance activity, producing a shift in their business mix toward higher FICO borrowers. 

Within the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations are much higher since early 2014 while nonbank 

FICOs are up somewhat less. This reflects both the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks, and increased refi 

activity for higher FICO borrowers.
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTVs for nonbank and bank originations are comparable, while the median DTI for nonbank loans is higher 

than for bank loans, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in both this and the FICO dimension. Between 

early 2017 and early 2019, there was a substantial increase in DTIs; over the subsequent two years, this has mostly 

reversed in the Ginnie Mae space, and more than completely reversed for the GSEs, leaving DTIs as low as they have 

been at any point since 2014. This is true for both Ginnie Mae and the GSEs, for banks and nonbanks. As interest rates 

increased, DTIs rose, because borrower payments were driven up relative to incomes. With the fall in interest rates 

over the past two years, DTIs have dropped.
650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of January 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of January 2021.

The median FICO score for Ginnie Mae nonbank originators increased slightly in January 2021. Bank FICOs are 

15 points above non-banks. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent for all categories of 

government lending.

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of January 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of January 2021.
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of January 2021.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of January 2021.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA borrowers experienced notable increases during 2017 and 2018 

for both banks and nonbank originators, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are 

expected in a rising rate environment. After peaking in January 2019, Ginnie DTIs have reverted to 2017 levels, 

as rates have declined.

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of January 2021. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of January 2021.
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Lakeview $186,241 11.9% 11.9%

2 PennyMac $175,034 11.2% 23.2%

3 Wells Fargo $150,234 9.6% 32.8%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $146,293 9.4% 42.2%

5 Nationstar $79,656 5.1% 47.3%

6 Quicken Loans $64,417 4.1% 51.4%

7 Newrez $45,704 2.9% 54.3%

8 US Bank $44,745 2.9% 57.2%

9 Carrington Mortgage $39,726 2.5% 59.7%

10 USAA Federal Savings Bank $36,607 2.3% 62.1%

11 Caliber Home Loans $35,424 2.3% 64.3%

12 Navy Federal Credit Union $26,435 1.7% 66.0%

13 Truist Bank $26,043 1.7% 67.7%

14 Amerihome Mortgage $24,652 1.6% 69.3%

15 Home Point Financial Corporation $20,818 1.3% 70.6%

16 The Money Source $20,431 1.3% 71.9%

17 Loan Depot $19,463 1.2% 73.2%

18 United WholeSale Mortgage $18,524 1.2% 74.4%

19 Guild Mortgage $15,741 1.0% 75.4%

20 Midfirst Bank $15,509 1.0% 76.4%

21 JP Morgan Chase $15,317 1.0% 77.4%

22 Planet Home Lending $13,676 0.9% 78.2%

23 Citizens Bank $12,900 0.8% 79.1%

24 M&T Bank $12,470 0.8% 79.9%

25 PHH Mortgage Corporation $12,069 0.8% 80.6%

26 Flagstar Bank $11,815 0.8% 81.4%

27 New American Funding $9,737 0.6% 82.0%

28 Mortgage Research Center $9,115 0.6% 82.6%

29 Idaho Housing and Finance Association $9,076 0.6% 83.2%

30 Bank of America $8,500 0.5% 83.7%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of January 2021, over half (51.4 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 

firms collectively own 83.7 percent. Nineteen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 11 are depository 

institutions.
76.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In December 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. In January 2021, Wells Fargo’s holdings of MSRs dipped to $150.2 

billion, below the $186.2 and $175.0 billion held by Lakeview and PennyMac, respectively (both nonbanks). 

Freedom Home Mortgage and Nationstar (also both nonbanks) make up the remainder of the top five largest 

holders of MSRs, owning $146.3 billion and $79.7 billion respectively as of January 2021. Nonbanks collectively 

owned servicing rights for 76.7 percent of all outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by Ginnie Mae in 

January 2021. In December 2013, the nonbank share was much smaller at 27.7 percent.

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$186,241

$175,034

$150,234

$146,293

$79,656

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

1. Lakeview 2. PennyMac

3. Wells Fargo 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

5. Nationstar UPB ($ millions)
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jun-12

Oct-12

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Feb-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2012 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2021.

While prepayment speeds on all securities have risen since early 2019, the speed increase has been especially 

dramatic in 2020, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly due to a sharp drop in rates. At 

this point, the speeds on GSE securities have largely converged with those on Ginnie II securities, as the former 

have ramped up more quickly in 2020. The faster Ginnie speeds from 2013-early 2020 reflected the growing 

share of VA loans, which tend to prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA puts fewer 

restrictions on streamlined refinances, and some of the upfront mortgage insurance premium can also be applied 

to the refinanced loan. We expect prepayment speeds to decline for all securities over the next few months, 

given the more than 50 basis point increase in 10-year Treasury rates and the more muted but still significant 

increase in mortgage rates since year end 2020.

35%

34%

28%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

42%

42%

41%

27%
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Speeds on the 2015 3.5s and the 2016 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have been 

increasing since early 2019; the speed increases have been especially dramatic in 2020 due to a sharp drop in 

rates, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly. The speeds on the 2015-issued Ginnie 3.5s 

have been slightly lower than their conventional counterparts since August 2020, although the speeds on the 

2016-issued Ginnie Mae 3.0s remain very comparable to their conventional counterparts. The faster historical 

speeds on the Ginnie Mae cohorts reflect the fact that 2015 and 2016 Ginnie originations consist of a large 

component of VA loans, which prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. The FHA streamlined programs are 

likely another contributor to the historically faster speeds. We expect declines in prepayment speeds over the 

next few months, reflecting the impact of higher mortgage rates.

43%

42%

42%

41%

37%
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2021.

The charts below show the behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-issued 4.0s, the largest coupon 

cohorts of those vintage years. Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s were prepaying faster than their 

conventional counterparts from late 2017 to March 2020, due primarily to fast VA prepayment speeds. 

Similarly, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s prepaid more slowly than their conventional counterparts until January of 

2019. In 2019, speeds of 2018 4.0s and 2017 3.5s accelerated, and Ginnie II speeds accelerated more than 

their conventional counterparts. However, in early 2020 conventional speeds accelerated more than Ginnie

speeds. Since March 2020, conventional speeds have exceeded those of the Ginnie cohorts, although the 

difference between the two has narrowed in recent months. We expect declines in prepayment speeds over 

the next few months, reflecting the impact of higher mortgage rates.

47%

44% 

49%

47%
Prepayments 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2019 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2021.

The charts below show prepayment speeds by loan age for 2019 and 2020 Ginnie II 3.0s. Prepayment speeds on 

both cohorts jumped at the 8-10 month loan age, a more muted jump than earlier cohorts at the same age; they 

then began to converge with conventional speeds more quickly, as a result of Ginnie Mae actions to curtail the 

“churning” problem. These actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA speeds are especially 

high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling requirements so that if 

loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is ineligible for securitization. 

Ginnie’s latest action on this front became effective for securities issued on or after November 1, 2019. It bars 

the securitization of over 90 percent LTV cash-out refinances into Ginnie I and Ginnie II pools (custom pools 

excepted). In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the lender to show that the 

borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance. The recent experience of these cohorts indicates that, as a 

result of these cumulative actions plus the acceleration of speeds in the conventional market in response to 

lower rates, Ginnie Mae speeds on 2019-issued 3.0s have been generally running below their conventional 

counterparts 17 month loan age onwards. 2020 Ginnie II 3.0s show a sharp increase in speeds at the 9-10 

month mark, pushing it well above conventional speeds, but the gaps are narrowing by months 11 and 12.

55.0%

47.4%

46.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2020 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

58.5%

54.4%

48.3%
Reverse and Multifamily Mortgages

$0.95

$4.6

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

$ Billions

Issuance Volume

HMBS Issuance Multifamily MBS Issuance

$56.2

$129.4

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

J

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

ul-19

May-19

Mar-19

Jan-19

Nov-18

Sep-18

Jul-18

May-18

Mar-18

Jan-18

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jul-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

$ Billions

Outstanding Volume

HMBS Oustanding Multifamily MBS Oustanding

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile over the past two years. After declining in 2018, volume 

has slowly improved over the course of 2019 and 2020. In January 2021, issuance fell to $0.95 billion. 

Outstanding reverse mortgage securities totaled $56.2 billion in January 2021, up slightly from the previous 

month, reflecting a higher volume of new issuances relative to paydowns. After increasing in December 2020, 

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance fell in January 2021 to $4.6 billion. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled 

$129.4 billion in the first month of 2021.
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Updated March 2021.

$366

$651

$45

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

4.83%

3.10%

0.43% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume was $366 billion per day in January 2021, surpassing the pre-crisis peak of $345 

billion in 2008. Agency MBS turnover in the first month of 2021 was also higher than the 2014-2019 period; in 

January 2021, average daily MBS turnover was 4.83 percent, above the 2019 average of 3.67 percent. Note that 

agency MBS turnover in 2020 and thus far in 2021 was higher than US Treasury turnover, a relatively rare 

occurrence. Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are down from their pre-crisis peaks. 

Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover.

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Updated March 2021.
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008Q3 2009Q3 2010Q3 2011Q3 2012Q3 2013Q3 2014Q3 2015Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The “other” category includes primarily life insurance companies, state and 

local govts, households, and nonprofits. Data as of Q3 2020.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (21 

percent), commercial banks (22 percent), foreign investors (12 percent), and money market & pension funds (11 

percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares are a fraction of what they once were. The Federal Reserve’s share 

increased from 15 percent in the first quarter of 2020 to 21 percent in the third quarter due to substantial 

purchases of MBS in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Despite large Federal Reserve purchases, commercial 

banks continue to be the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $2.7 trillion in holdings as of the end of 

February 2021, $1.9 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

` Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Jan-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21Jan 27 Feb 03 Feb 10 Feb 17

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1517.7 1649.0 1703.9 1693.5 1740.8 1797.8 1829.1 1877.5 1891.4 1898.0 1904.0 1922.1

Small Domestic 

Banks 545.6 577.5 588.8 599.2 611.0 626.8 644.7 660.9 656.4 666.2 666.5 674.5

Foreign Related 

Banks 38.2 43.4 41.7 40.2 39.3 45.3 46.9 49.7 52.0 54.5 52.9 53.8

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 2101.5 2269.9 2334.4 2332.9 2391.1 2469.9 2520.7 2588.1 2599.8 2618.7 2623.4 2650.4

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Small domestic banks includes all domestically chartered commercial banks not 

included in the top 25. Data as of February 2021.

Commercial bank holdings of agency MBS
MBS Ownership

house old

mortgages,

Debt,

h l

$9,833

. 

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank Of America Corporation $489,458.0 $364,527.0 $113,413.0 $11,255.0 $263.0 19.40

2 Wells Fargo & Company $254,580.0 $187,217.0 $59,978.0 $6,952.0 $433.0 10.10

3 Jpmorgan Chase & Co. $215,137.0 $130,974.0 $69,432.0 $176.0 $14,555.0 8.50

4 Charles Schwab Bank $166,204.0 $87,536.0 $15,140.0 $63,528.0 $0.0 6.60

5 Truist Bank $113,523.0 $39,959.0 $16,075.0 $57,489.0 $0.0 4.50

6 U.S. Bancorp $99,825.5 $69,428.0 $14,103.4 $16,293.7 $0.5 4.00

7 Citigroup Inc. $85,612.0 $77,162.0 $1,943.0 $4,811.0 $1696.0 3.40

8 Capital One Financial Corporation $76,081.1 $41,868.0 $9,836.6 $23,760.8 $615.8 3.00

9 Bank Of New York Mellon Corp $64,124.0 $46,920.0 $3,280.0 $11,538.0 $2,386.0 2.50

10 Pnc Bank, National Association $50,426.5 $42,478.5 $4,947.9 $1,500.0 $1,500.1 2.00

11 State Street Bank And Trust Company $46,767.2 $20,518.0 $6,806.0 $16,962.2 $2,481.0 1.90

12 Morgan Stanley $36,158.0 $22,827.0 $4,607.0 $8,724.0 $0.0 1.40

13 Usaa Federal Savings Bank $34,733.8 $29,034.4 $2,422.7 $3,276.8 $0.0 1.40

14 Silicon Valley Bank $31,483.5 $21,350.2 $131.2 $10,002.2 $0.0 1.20

15 E*Trade Bank $30,678.8 $19,364.4 $5,910.9 $5,403.5 $0.0 1.20

16 Td Bank Usa/Td Bank Na $28,338.2 $1,710.3 $139.1 $26,392.5 $96.3 1.10

17 Hsbc Bank Usa, National Association $25,279.1 $7,445.0 $9,168.2 $8,664.1 $1.8 1.00

18 Bmo Harris Bank National Association $22,954.0 $4,837.2 $482.7 $17,632.3 $1.9 0.90

19 Ally Bank $21,796.0 $15,536.0 $1,203.0 $2461.0 $2596.0 0.90

20 Keybank National Association $20,622.2 $1,980.7 $470.3 $18,171.2 $0.0 0.80

Total Top 20 $1,913,782 $1,232,673 $339,490 $314,993 $26,626 75.80%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute Note: Data as of Q4 2020.

Out of the $2.5 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of 4Q 2020, $1.9 trillion was agency pass-throughs: 

$1.5 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $391 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $549 billion was agency 

CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $44 billion. In Q4 2020, MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for 

the ninth consecutive quarter. The increase was driven by both GSE pass-throughs and agency CMO holdings, with 

the increase in GSE pass-throughs making the larger contribution.

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63

2016 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,385.10 $1,001.61 $383.49 $422.18 $3.06 $34.65

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,445.91 $1,037.93 $407.97 $421.56 $2.90 $36.76

3Q19 $1,975.78 $1,506.92 $1,079.82 $427.10 $428.69 $4.74 $35.44

4Q19 $1,985.38 $1,516.26 $1,089.41 $426.85 $428.99 $4.62 $35.52

1Q20 $2,107.66 $1,621.00 $1,173.36 $448.34 $443.73 $4.65 $37.56 

2Q20 $2,195.19 $1,669.93 $1,228.87 $441.06 $478.11 $5.00 $42.14

3Q20 $2,310.42 $1,764.72 $1,349.48 $415.24 $499.50 $4.43 $41.78

4Q20 $2,520.90 $1,928.21 $1,537.54 $390.66 $548.65 $3.94 $40.10

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings
Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of November 2020.

15.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Nov-20

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

MBS Ownership

$1,117.1

$474.3

$642.7

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Foreign investors held 15.0 percent of agency MBS in November 2020, up from a low of 12.0 percent in July 

2014, but down from 17.0 percent in spring 2020. For the month of November 2020, this represents $1.12 

trillion in Agency MBS, $474 billion held by foreign private institutions and $643 billion held by foreign 

institutions. This represents a $76.6 billion drop in Agency MBS from the peak in spring 2020, all in official 

holdings.
MBS Ownership

Agenc

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

y MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of November 2020.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise 70 percent of all 

foreign holdings. Between June 2019 and November 2020, we estimate that Japan has increased their agency 

MBS holdings by $5.98 billion, Taiwan has decreased their holdings by $3.74 billion and China has decreased 

their holdings by $5.00 billion. All three countries have experienced declines since March of 2020; the declines 

in Chinese holdings have been especially dramatic, we estimate Chinese holdings of MBS are down by 

approximately 15 percent from April through November of 2020.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020

Q3

2020 Oct-20

Nov20

Japan 297,016 311,047 305,332 322,155 310,268 305,064 303,329 303,449 14,031 -5,715 16,823 -11,887 -5,204 -1,735 120

Taiwan 265,524 263,018 261,740 269,133 267,918 264,270 262,990 261,751 -2,506 -1,278 7,393 -1,215 -3,648 -1,280 -1,239

China 227,357 233,783 231,753 260,479 239,045 206,861 211,545 221,311 6,426 -2,030 28,726 -21,434 -32,184 4,684 9,766

Luxembourg 47,646 46,641 39,015 36,789 42,389 35,626 33,896 34,929 -1,005 -7,626 -2,226 5,600 -6,763 -1,730 1,033

Ireland 45,829 41,367 38,731 26,131 29,399 28,286 27,433 27,838 -4,462 -2,636 -12,600 3,268 -1,113 -853 405

South Korea 42,879 41,485 40,810 40,964 38,891 40,303 40,706 41,683 -1,394 -675 154 -2,073 1,412 403 977

Cayman 

Islands 34,967 29,540 31,827 27,154 34,564 34,495 35,626 35,597 -5,427 2,287 -4,673 7,410 -69 1,131 -29

Bermuda 29,365 29,184 33,897 27,790 27,790 35,751 28,345 28,068 -181 4,713 -6,107 0 7,961 -7,406 -277

Netherlands 14,074 10,549 10,902 10,886 13,255 10,964 12,102 12,561 -3,525 353 -16 2,369 -2,291 1,138 459

Malaysia 12,167 15,585 16,600 21,399 20,390 19,808 19,750 19,708 3,418 1,015 4,799 -1,009 -582 -58 -42

Rest of world 128,142 135,515 152,489 202,143 201,165 196,246 195,259 205,465 7,373 16,974 49,654 -978 -4,919 -987 10,206

Total 1,144,971 1,157,714 1,163,096 1,245,023 1,225,074 1,171,603 1,170,981 1,192,360 12,743 5,382 81,927 -19,949 -53,471 -622 21,379

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020

Q3

2020 Oct-20

Nov20

Japan 293,662 307,738 302,212 319,241 306,963 301,622 299,839 299,637 14,076 -5,526 16,823 -12,278 -5,341 -1,783 -201

Taiwan 265,234 262,732 261,470 268,881 267,700 264,043 262,760 261,499 -2,502 -1,262 7,393 -1,181 -3,657 -1,283 -1,260

China 221,738 228,240 226,526 255,596 235,078 202,730 207,356 216,737 6,502 -1,714 28,726 -20,518 -32,348 4,626 9,380

Luxembourg 43,978 43,023 35,603 33,602 40,207 33,354 31,592 32,413 -955 -7,420 -2,226 6,605 -6,853 -1,762 821

Ireland 37,674 33,322 31,145 19,045 21,091 19,635 18,660 18,258 -4,352 -2,177 -12,600 2,047 -1,457 -974 -403

South Korea 34,969 33,682 33,452 34,091 28,743 29,736 29,990 29,981 -1,287 -230 154 -5,347 992 255 -10

Cayman 

Islands 29,896 24,538 27,110 22,748 28,431 29,364 29,150 28,525 -5,358 2,572 -4,673 5,684 933 -214 -625

Bermuda 26,394 26,253 31,133 25,208 25,111 25,635 25,516 24,979 -141 4,880 -6,107 -97 523 -118 -537

Netherlands 13,904 10,381 10,744 10,738 12,739 10,427 11,557 11,966 -3,523 363 -16 2,001 -2,312 1,130 409

Malaysia 11,881 15,303 16,334 21,150 20,028 19,432 19,368 19,291 3,422 1,031 4,799 -1,122 -597 -63 -77

Rest of world 97,585 105,371 124,063 175,591 173,716 167,661 166,274 173,811 7,786 18,692 49,654 -1,874 -6,055 -1,387 7,537

Total 1,076,916 1,090,579 1,099,788 1,185,887 1,159,808 1,103,636 1,102,062 1,117,095 13,663 9,209 81,927 -26,079 -56,172 -1,574 15,033
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of January 2021.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

On March 23, 2020, in response to the market dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed 

announced they would purchase Treasuries and agency MBS in an amount necessary to support smooth 

functioning markets. In March 2020 the Fed bought $292.2 billion in agency MBS, and April 2020 clocked in at 

$295.1 billion, the largest two months of mortgage purchases ever; and well over 100 percent of gross issuance 

for each of those two months. After the market stabilized, the Fed slowed its purchases to around $100 billion per 

month in May through August of 2020. Recently, Fed purchases have ramped up again slightly; purchases totaled 

$117.1 billion in January 2021. January Fed purchases totaled 35 percent of monthly issuance. As of January 

2021, total agency MBS owned by the Fed equaled $2.07 trillion. Prior to the COVID-19 intervention, the Fed 

was winding down its MBS portfolio from its 2014 prior peak.
Disclosures:

All the information contained in this document is as of date indicated unless otherwise noted. The 

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All 

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. 

The views expressed in this material are the views of the staff of the Urban Institute's Housing Finance 

Policy Center and State Street Global Advisors as of March 11th, 2021 and are subject to change based on 

market and other conditions. The views should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its 

funders. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. 

Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or 

developments may differ materially from those projected.

Information Classification: General

© 2021 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. 

Tracking Code: 3489631.2.1.GBL.RTL

Expiration Date: 3/31/2022