### CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

13.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................... 13-1 13.2 ASSUMPTIONS ..................................................... 13-1 13.3 METHOD .......................................................... 13-2 13.4 RESULTS .......................................................... 13-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 13.4.1 TMY System Load Reference Case Forecast ......................... 13-4 Table 13.4.2 Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast .................................... 13-5 Table 13.4.3 Trial Standard Level A Forecast ................................... 13-6 Table 13.4.4 Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast .................................... 13-7 Table 13.4.5 Trial Standard Level B Forecast ................................... 13-8 Table 13.4.6 Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast .................................... 13-9 Table 13.4.7 Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast ................................... 13-10 Table 13.4.8 Installed Generating Capacity: Difference from AEO2007

Ref with TMY System Load in 2030 (GW) ......................... 13-10 Table 13.4.9 TMY System Load High Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast ..... 13-11 Table 13.4.10 Trial Standard Level 1 High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-12 Table 13.4.11 Trial Standard Level A High Economic Growth Forecast .............. 13-13 Table 13.4.12 Trial Standard Level 2 High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-14 Table 13.4.13 Trial Standard Level B High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-15 Table 13.4.14 Trial Standard Level 4 High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-16 Table 13.4.15 Trial Standard Levels High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-17 Table 13.4.16 TMY System Load Low Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast ..... 13-18 Table 13.4.17 Trial Standard Level 1 Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-19 Table 13.4.18 Trial Standard Level A Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-20 Table 13.4.19 Trial Standard Level 2 Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-21 Table 13.4.20 Trial Standard Level B Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-22 Table 13.4.21 Trial Standard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-23 Table 13.4.22 Trial Standard Levels Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-24 

## CHAPTER 13. UTILITYIMPACTANALYSIS

TABLE OFCONTENTS

13.1 INTRODUCTION

.................................................... 13-1 13.2 ASSUMPTIONS

..................................................... 13-1 13.3 METHOD

.......................................................... 13-2 13.4 RESULTS

.......................................................... 13-3

LIST OFTABLES

Table 13.4.1 TMY SystemLoad Reference Case Forecast

......................... 13-4 Table 13.4.2 Trial Standard Levell Forecast

.................................... 13-5 Table 13.4.3 Trial Standard Level A Forecast

................................... 13-6 Table 13.4.4 Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 13-7 Table 13.4.5 Trial Standard Level B Forecast

................................... 13-8 Table 13.4.6 Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

.................................... 13-9 Table 13.4.7 Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

.................................. , 13-10 Table 13.4.8 Installed Generating Capacity: Difference from AE02007 RefwithTMY System Load in 2030 CGW)

......................... 13-10 Table 13.4.9 TMY System Load HighEconomic Growth Reference Case Forecast

.... , 13-11 Table 13.4.10 Trial Standard Levell High Economic Growth Forecast

.............. , 13-12 Table 13.4.11 Trial Standard Level A High Economic Growth Forecast

.............. 13-13 Table 13.4.12 Trial Standard Level 2 HighEconomic Growth Forecast

.............. , 13-14 Table 13.4.13 Trial StandardLevel B High Economic Growth Forecast

.............. , 13-15 Table 13.4.14 Trial StandardLevel 4 HighEconomic Growth Forecast

.............. , 13-16 Table 13.4.15 Trial Standard Level 5 High Economic Growth Forecast

.............. , 13-17 Table 13.4.16 TMY SystemLoad LowEconomic Growth Reference Case Forecast

.... , 13-18 Table 13.4.17 Trial Standard Levell LowEconomic Growth Forecast

............... 13-19 Table 13.4.18 Trial Standard Level A LowEconomic Growth Forecast

.............. , 13-20 Table 13.4.19 Trial Standard Level 2 LowEconomic Growth Forecast

.............. , 13-21 Table 13.4.20 Trial Standard Level B LowEconomic Growth Forecast

............... 13-22 Table 13.4.21 Trial Standard Level 4 LowEconomic Growth Forecast

............... 13-23 Table 13.4.22 Trial Standard Level 5 LowEconomic Growth Forecast

............... 13-24

13-i

### CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of residential furnace and boiler standard levels on the electric and gas utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)a. NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a baseline energy forecast for the U.S., the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). TheAEO for 2007 (AE02007) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030.' DOE used a variant of this model, referred to here as NEMS-BT," to account for the impacts of equipment efficiency standards on the baseline energy forecast. DOE's utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the AE02007Reference Case and for policy cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AE02007. For example, the operating characteristics (e.g., energy conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants are as specified in the AE02007 Reference Case, as are the prospects for natural gas supply.


### The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by fuel type, thatresult for each trial standardlevel (TSL), as well as changes in residential sector electricity and natural gas consumption.

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the analysis of energy efficiency standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy-efficiency standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficiency standards than considering only average effects. 

### In the analysis of residential furnace and boiler standards, DOE substituted the default NEMS system load shape with one that represents weather conditions for a typical meteorological

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Inforination Administration documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003), March, 2003.

b DOE/ETA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS-BT (BT is DOE's BuildingTechnologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT was previously called NEMSBRS. 13-1 

## CHAPTER 13. UTILITYIMPACTANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION

DOEanalyzedtheeffectsofresidentialfurnace andboilerstandardlevelsonthe electricand gasutilityindustryusingavariantoftheDOE/EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA), sNational EnergyModeling System (NEMS)". NEMS is apublic domain, multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium model ofthe

# u.s. energy sector. Eachyear, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a baseline energy forecast for the U.S., the

## AnnualEnergy Outlook (AEO). The

## AEOfor 2007 

## (AE02007) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030. 1 

### DOEused a variant ofthis model, referred to here as NEMS-BT,b to account for the impacts ofequipment efficiency standards on the baseline energy forecast. DOE's utility impact analysis consists ofa comparison between model results for the 

## AE02007Reference Caseandforpolicycasesinwhichstandards are inplace, andappliesthe same basic set ofassumptions as the

## AE02007. For example, the operating characteristics (e.g., energy conversionefficiency, emissionsrates) offuture electricitygeneratingplants are as specifiedinthe 

## AE02007Reference Case, as are the prospects for natural gas supply.

Theutility impact analysisreports the changes ininstalledcapacity and generation, byfuel type,thatresultfor eachtrial standardlevel(TSL), as wellas changesinresidentialsectorelectricity and natural gas consumption.



## 13.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS-BThas several advantagesthathave ledto its adoption asthe forecasting toolinthe analysis ofenergy efficiency standards. NEMS-BTuses a set ofassumptions that are wellknown and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each 

## AEO receives. In addition, the comprehensiveness ofNEMS-BTpermits the modeling ofinteractions among the various energy supplyanddemand sectors andthe economyas awhole,producingacompletepictureoftheeffects ofenergy-efficiency standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate ofthe actual impact ofefficiency standards than considering only average effects. In the analysis ofresidential furnace and boiler standards, DOE substituted the default NEMS system load shapewith one thatrepresents weatherconditions for a typical meteorological

a 

### For more information on NEMS, refer to the 

# u.s. Department of Energy, Energy Infonnation Administration documentation. A useful sunnnaryis 

### NationalEnergyModeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003), March, 2003.

b 

### DOE/EIAapprovesuse ofthenameNEMStodescribe onlyanofficialversionofthemodelwithout anymodification
to codeordata. Becausethis analysis entails someminorcodemodifications andthe model is runundervariouspolicy scenariosthatarevariations onDOE/EIAassumptions,DOErefersto itbythenameNEMS-BT(BTis DOE'sBuilding Technologies Program, underwhose aegis this work has beenperformed). NEMS-BTwas previously calledNEMSBRS. 13-1

### year (TMY). This is referred to as the TMY system load.' DOE made this substitution to ensure

that the system load shapes in NEMS are consistent with other rulemaking processes, namely the commercial unitary air conditioner and heat pump standard. As a result, the reference case DOE used to evaluate the impact from a proposed furnace and boiler standard is no longer an exact replication of theAE02007Reference Case. DOE refers to the modified AE02007 Reference Case as the TMY System Load Reference Case. The difference between these two reference cases is minor. The total installed electric generation capacity and the total electricity generation are each only 0.2 percent lower for the TMY System Load Reference Case than for the AE02007Reference Case in year 2030.


### The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AE02007 and treats furnace and boiler efficiency standards as variations in policy. The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the TMY System Load Reference Case and the proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards reduces total natural gas demand by less than five percent (between 0.04 and 2.2 percent in 2030) in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for the TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. This method is discussed in more detail below and in Appendix U.

DOE also considered the High and Low Economic Growth Cases ofAE02007. The TMY System Load Reference Case corresponds to medium growth. The High Economic Growth Case assumes higher projected growth rates for population, labor force, and labor productivity, resulting in lower predicted inflation and interest rates, and higher aggregate economic growth, relative to the reference case. The opposite is true for the Low Economic Growth Case. The High Growth Case reflects an average annual growth in gross domestic product of 3.4 percent per year compared with 3.0 percent per year in the Reference Case, and 2.2 percent per year in the Low Growth Case. Different economic growth scenarios affect the rate of growth of electricity demand. DOE ran the High and Low Economic Growth Cases for all six TSLs. These results also account for a 15 percent rebound effect.



### 13.3 METHOD

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter 10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The national energy savings input includes a 15 percent rebound effect. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMS-BT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed description of the interpolation method is given in Appendix U.

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and oil consumption in the NEMS-BT Residential Demand Module. Energy use reductions are

13-2 

## year (TMY). This is referred to as the TMY system load. 2 

## DOE made this substitutionto ensure that the system load shapes in NEMS are consistent with otherrulemaking processes, namely the commercial unitary air conditioner and heatpump standard. As a result, the reference case DOE used to evaluate the impact from a proposed furnace and boiler standard is no longer an exact replication

## oftheAE02007ReferenceCase. DOErefersto 

## themodifiedAE02007ReferenceCase

as the TMY System Load Reference Case. The difference between these two reference cases is minor. The total installed electric generation capacity andthe total electricity generation are each only 0.2 percentlowerfor the TMY SystemLoadReference Casethanforthe

## AE02007Reference Case in year 2030.

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions ofthe 

## AE02007 and treats furnace and boiler efficiency standards as variations in policy. The effect ofthe policy is calculated as the differencebetweentheTMYSystemLoadReferenceCaseandtheproposedstandardcase. Because theimplementationofstandardsreduces totalnaturalgasdemandbylessthanfive percent(between 0.04 and 2.2 percent in 2030) in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the simulations. Therefore, DOEmodeled largerreductions in demand andinterpolatedresults forthe TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range ofinterpolation. This method is discussed in more detail below and in Appendix U.



## DOE also consideredthe High andLowEconomic Growth Cases of 

## AE02007. The TMY System Load Reference Case corresponds to medium growth. The High Economic Growth Case

assumeshigherprojectedgrowthrates forpopulation, laborforce, andlaborproductivity, resulting inlowerpredictedinflationandinterestrates, andhigheraggregate economicgrowth,relativetothe reference case. The opposite is true for the LowEconomic Growth Case. The High Growth Case reflects an average annual growthingross domestic productof3.4percentperyearcomparedwith 3.0 percent per year in the Reference Case, and 2.2 percent per year in the Low Growth Case. Different economic growth scenarios affectthe rate ofgrowth ofelectricity demand. DOEranthe HighandLowEconomicGrowthCasesfor all sixTSLs. Theseresults also accountfor a 15 percent rebound effect.



## 13.3 METHOD

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter 10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The national energy savings input includes a 15 percent rebound effect. The magnitude ofthe energy decrementthatwould berequired for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out ofthe range ofnumerical noise is larger than the highest efficiency standardunderconsideration. Therefore, DOE estimatedresults corresponding to eachTSLusing interpolation. DOEranhigherusereductionlevels inNEMS-BT, representing multipliers ofeach TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed description ofthe interpolationmethod is given inAppendix U.


## Policyruns areexecutedbyreducingelectricity,naturalgas, liquefiedpetroleumgas (LPG), and oil consumption in the NEMS-BT Residential Demand Module. Energy use reductions are

13-2

### applied to the space heating end use and are divided among U.S. Census divisions. All residential

fuels are considered simultaneously, and the load-shape effects of improved furnace and boiler efficiency are replicated as closely as possible.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the furnace and boiler energy-efficiency standards analysis extend to the year 2066. It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in grey to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.



### 13.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity, and residential-sector consumption. Results are presented in five-year increments to year 2030, including High and Low Growth cases for all TSLs. Beyond year 2030, an extrapolation to 2038 for each proposed TSL represents a simple replication of the year 2030 results.

The results from the TMY System Load Reference Case are shown in Table 13.4.1. The reference case results for the six TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.2 through 13.4.7. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 13.3, for residential sector energy sales, total U.S. electricity generation, and installed capacity.

Residential natural gas consumption decreases for each TSL compared to the TMY System Load Reference Case. The decrease in consumption is comparable to the amount of energy that the National Energy Savings (NES) Model predicts will be saved by each standard, ranging from just over 0.2 percent to just under 10.3 percent of total residential natural gas consumption by year 2030.

Residential electricity consumption remains virtually unchanged for TSL 1, TSL A, and TSL 2 compared to the TMY System Load Reference Case, changing by at most 1.1 terawatt-hours (TWh) or 0.06 percentby 2030. For TSL B, TSL 4, and TSL 5, residential electricity consumption increases compared to the TMY System Load Reference Case between 0.5 to 1.4 percent by 2030.

13-3 

### applied to the space heating enduse and are divided among U.S. Census divisions. Allresidential fuels are considered simultaneously, and the load-shape effects ofimproved furnace and boiler efficiency are replicated as closely as possible.
AlthoughthecurrenttimehorizonofNEMS-BTis2030,otherpartsofthefurnace andboiler energy-efficiencystandardsanalysis extendtotheyear2066. It

### isnotfeasibleto extendtheforecast periodofNEMS-BTforthepurposes ofthis analysis, nordoes DOE/EIAhave an approvedmethod for extrapolation ofmany outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by extrapolations ofthose outputs couldbe inconsistentwiththe extrapolation ofmarginal emissions factors. An analysis ofvarious trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope ofthis work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simplereplications ofyear2030results. Whilethese may seemunreasonable in some instances, in this wayresults are guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situationduringtheextrapolationperiod. Onlychangesthathavebeenannouncedwithdate-certain introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in greyto distinguish them from actual NEMS-BTresults.



## 13.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity, and residential-sector consumption. Results are presented in five-year increments to year 2030, including High and Low Growth cases for all TSLs. Beyond year2030, an extrapolationto 2038 for each proposed TSL represents a simple replication ofthe year 2030 results.

The results from the TMY System Load Reference Case are shown in Table 13.4.1. The reference case results for the six TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.2 through 13.4.7. Each table showsforecasts usinginterpolatedresults, as describedinsection 13.3,forresidentialsectorenergy sales, total U.S. electricity generation, and installed capacity.

Residentialnaturalgas consumptiondecreases for eachTSL comparedto the TMY System LoadReference Case. Thedecreaseinconsumptionis comparabletothe amountofenergythatthe National Energy Savings (NES) Modelpredicts willbe saved by each standard, ranging fromjust

over0.2 percenttojustunder 10.3percentoftotalresidentialnaturalgas consumptionbyyear2030.
Residential electricityconsumptionremainsvirtuallyunchangedforTSL 1,TSLA, andTSL 2 compared to the TMY System Load Reference Case, changing by at most 1.1 

### terawatt-hours (TWh) or0.06 percentby2030. ForTSLB, TSL4, andTSL 5, residentialelectricityconsumption increases comparedto the TMY SystemLoadReference Casebetween0.5 to 1.4percentby2030.

13-3

### Table 13.4.8 shows changes in installed generating capacity in 2030 for each TSL. The

increase in capacity at TSL B, TSL 4, and TSL 5 is due to the market shift from gas furnaces to electric heating induced by the higher gas furnace prices associated with standards at these levels.

The results from the TMY System Load High Economic Growth Reference Case and TMY System Load Low Economic Growth Reference Case, as well as the reference case results for the six TSLs are presented under the High and Low Economic Growth cases are presented in Tables 13.4.9 through 13.4.22.

Table 13.4.1 TMY System Load Reference Case Forecast NEMS

-BT Results 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential Sector Energy Consumption' Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1192 1365 1483 1592 1701 1797 1895 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.73 5.76 5.76 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.46 5.46 Other (Quads)' 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 Total U.S. Electric Generation' Coal (TWh) 1969 2015 2145 2299 2520 2923 3315 Gas TWh) 600 752 891 1017 1053 983 976 Petroleum TWh 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 Total TWh)e 3791 4026 4385 4712 5026 5381 5773 Installed Generating Capacity' Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.4 463.4 Other Fossil GW)s 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.1 464.2 494.6 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 Renewables GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1010.9 975.5 1023.3 1102.5 1185.4 Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2007: Energy Consumption, Residential Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2007: Electricity Sales by Sector Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators Comparable to Table A9 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells 

### Table 13.4.8 shows changes in installed generating capacity in 2030 for each TSL. The increase in capacity at TSL B, TSL 4, and TSL 5 is due to the market shift from gas furnaces to electric heating inducedbythe higher gas furnace prices associated with standards at these levels.

Theresults fromthe TMY SystemLoadHighEconomicGrowthReference Case and TMY SystemLoad Low Economic Growth Reference Case, as well as the reference case results for the six TSLs are presentedunder the High and Low Economic Growth cases are presented in Tables 13.4.9 through 13.4.22.



## T bi 13 4 1 TMY S t 

## L d R 

## £

a e 

# .. ,ys em oa e erence

# case

## Forecas t 

### NEMS-BT Results 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 Residential Sector Energy Consumption" Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1192 1365 1483 1592 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 Other (Quads)" 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 

### TotalU.S. Electric Generationd 

### Coal (TWh) 1969 2015 2145 2299 Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1017 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 Renewab1es (TWh) 357 357 466 484 Total (TWhY 3791 4026 4385 4712 

### Installed Generating Capacityf Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 Other Fossil (GW)g 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 Renewab1es (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 Total (GW)" 789.5 969.0 1010.9 975.5

a 

### Comparable to Table A2 ofAE02007: Energy ConsumptIOn, ResIdential

b 

### Comparable to Table A8 ofAE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector 

### 2020 2025

1701 1797 5.73 5.76 2.05 1.99 5.43 5.46 1.94 1.89

2520 2923 1053 983 104 106 856 862 493 507 5026 5381

358.2 412.4 441.1 464.2 108.7 108.7 115.3 117.2 1023.3 1102.5

C 

### Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

d 

### Comparable to Table A8 ofAE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

e 

### Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

f 

### Comparable to Table A9 ofAE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

g 

### Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

h 

### Excludes Pumped Storage andFuel Cells

13-4 

### 2030

1895 5.76 1.97 5.46 1.87

3315 976 110 856 516 5773

463.4 494.6 107.5 119.9 1185.4

### Table 13.4.2 Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,895 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0. 0.2 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.73 5.75 5.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 Other EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.45 5.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,145 2,299 2,520 2,923 3,315 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,053 983 976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.-' Petroleum TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,381 5,773 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.4 463.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.i) Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.3 464.5 495.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.-; 0.4 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ().0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.9 975.5 1,023.5 1,102.7 1,185.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. a

### Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-5

### Table 13.4.3 Trial Standard Level A Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load' Extra olation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consum ption

_____ Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,895 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0. Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.72 5.75 5.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0,02 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.45 5.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,145 2,299 2,520 2,923 3,315 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,053 984 976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.^ 0. Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O.0 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,381 5,773 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.3 463.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.3 464.6 495.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0. Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.9 975.5 1,023.5 1,102.8 1,185.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.^; 02 'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

## Table 13.4.3 Trial Standard LevelA Forecast

a

### Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-6

### Table 13.4

.4 Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load" Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consum ption

_____ Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,896 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.72 5.74 5.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0,05 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.42 5.44 5.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U

.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,145 2,299 2,519 2,922 3,315 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,054 985 977 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1. Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0. I Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (TWh 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,382 5,774 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.1 412.2 463.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.7 465.2 495.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 1. } Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1i.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.8 975.5 1,023.8 1,103.3 1,186.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1., 1.2 Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. a

### Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-7

### Table 13.4.5 Trial Standard Level B Forecast NEMS

-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load' Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consumption 

### Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,704 1,803 1,904 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.3 9.5 11.7 12.4 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.66 5.62 5.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.22 -0.2S -0.30 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.04 1.98 1.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.011 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.37 5.33 5.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.21 -0.26 -0.2s Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,144 2,296 2,514 2,917 3,314 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.6 -5.9 -6.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,018 1,057 993 985 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 4.1 10.0 8.5 S.5 S.5 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables TWh 357 357 466 485 494 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,025 5,385 5,780 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 3.5 7.2 7.2 

### 7. Installed Generating Capacity Coal GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.8 357.5 411.4 463.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -0, l Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.6 473.0 431.0 445.0 470.6 503.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.9 6.4 8.4 S.4 8.4 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (GW) 789.5 968.7 1,010.6 975.7 1,026.5 1,107.9 1,193.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.2 5.4 8.2 2 S.2 'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. a

### Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-8

### Table 13.4.6 Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load' Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,704 1,803 1,904 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.3 9.4 1 1.7 12.3 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.66 5.62 5.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.22 -0.2 t -0. ,1 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.04 1.98 1.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.36 5.32 5.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.21 -0 27 -0.25) Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,144 2,296 2,514 2,917 3,314 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.7 -6.0 -6.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,018 1,057 993 985 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 4.2 10.3 8.7 8.7 8.7 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 485 494 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,025 5,385 5,780 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 3.6 7.4 7.' 7.=1 Installed Generating Cap city Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.8 357.5 411.4 463.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.6 473.0 431.0 445.1 470.8 503.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 4.0 6.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (GW) 789.5 968.7 1,010.6 975.7 1,026.6 1,108.0 1,193.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.3 5.5 8.4 8.' 8.4 "Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

## Table 13.4.6 Trial Standard Level4 Forecast

a 

### Negative values refer to areduction from the Reference forecast.

13-9

### Table 13.4.7 Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load' Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consumption

_____ Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,710 1,815 1,922 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 17.6 26.7 33.0 36.0 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.57 5.44 5.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.32 -0.50 -0.64 -0.69 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.03 1.95 1.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07 -0,0k Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.28 5.15 4.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.31 -0.47 -0.60 -0.66 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.92 1.85 1.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,143 2,293 2,507 2,909 3,314 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.7 -12.7 -13.5 -1.5 -1.5 Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 . 1,020 1,062 1,005 995 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.9 8.9 21.8 18.5 1 .5 15.5 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 104 103 106 109 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 486 496 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,024 5,389 5,789 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -2.0 7.6 15.7 15.7 15.7

. Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.9 356.8 410.2 463.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -1.4 -2.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Other Fossil (GW 281.5 450.3 472.7 431.2 449.4 478.1 512.8 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.4 8.3 13.9 18.2 1 .? I ^.2 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.1 119.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (GW) 789.5 968.4 1,010.2 975.9 1,030.3 1,114.1 1,203.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 0.4 7.0 11.6 17.8 17.5 17.ti " Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.


### Table 13.4.8 Installed Generating Capacity: Difference from AE02007 Ref with TMY S stem Load in 2030 (GW) Plant type TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 TSL 5
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 Other Fossil 0.4 0.5 1.3 8.4 8.6 18.2
Nuclear 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Renewables 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total 0.4 0.5 1.2 8.2 8.4 17.8

13-10 a 

### Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.



## T bi 13 4 

## 8 I t 

## II d G

a 

## e , , 

### ns a e eneratIllg

# c 't 

### D'ff;**a~aclty:** I 

### erence f

### rom 

### AE02007

## R f 

## 'hTMY S e WIt**~ystem** 

## L d' 2030 

## (GW) oa III 

### Plant type TSL 1 TSLA TSL2 TSLB TSL4 TSL 5
Coal 

### 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3
OtherFossil 

### 0.4 0.5 1.3 8.4 8.6 18.2
Nuclear 

### 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Renewables 

### 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Total 

### 0.4 0.5 1.2 8.2 8.4 17.8

13-10

### Table 13.4.9 TMY System Load High Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential Sector Energy onsumpti n' Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,016 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.89 5.98 6.06 Other (EJ 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.05 2.04 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.58 5.67 5.74 Other (Quads)' 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93 Total U.S. Electric Generation' Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 2,691 3,195 3,670 Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 1,082 995 976 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 Renewables TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556 Total (TWh)' 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,270 5,780 6,337 Installed Generating Capacity' Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 382.0 448.7 511.3 Other Fossil (GW)g 281.5 450.9 473.6 433.9 456.3 484.2 517.5 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.7 127.6 Total (GW)" 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,067.6 1,174.3 1,285.0 ' Comparable to Table A2 of AE02007: Energy Consumption, Residential b Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy ' Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators f Comparable to Table A9 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability g Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators ' Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells 

## T 

## bi 13 4 9 TMY S

a e , , 

### ;ystem oa ll:?J 

## L dH' hE 'G conomlC rowt 

### hR£ e erence

# case NEMS-BT Results 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 Residential Sector Energy Consumption" Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 Other (Quads)C 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 Total U.S. Electric Generationd 

### Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 Petroleum (TWh) III 

### 122 97 106 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 Total (TWhY 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 Installed Generating Capacityf 

### Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 OtherFossil (GW)g 281.5 450.9 473.6 433.9 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 Total (GWY' 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7

.. Comparable to Table A2 ofAE02007: Energy ConsumptIOn, ReSIdentIal

b 

### Comparable to Table A8 ofAE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector 

### 2020

1,758 5.89 2.08 5.58 1.97

2,691 1,082 105 885 507 5,270

382.0 456.3 111.7 117.6 1,067.6 

## Forecast 

### 2025

1,885 5.98 2.05 5.67 1.94

3,195 995 109 945 536 5,780

448.7 484.2 119.7 121.7 1,174.3

C 

### Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

d 

### Comparable to Table A8 ofAE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

e 

### Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

f 

### Comparable to Table A9 ofAE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability g Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

h 

### Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

13-11 

### 2030

2,016 6.06 2.04 5.74 1.93

3,670 976 115 1,020 556 6,337

511.3 517.5 128.6 127.6 1,285.0

### Table 13.4.10 Trial Standard Level 1 High Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada Extra olation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Con sum tion 

### Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 2 0.' Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.88 5.98 6.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.05 2.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.58 5.66 5.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 2,691 3,195 3,671 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 01S 0.I Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 1,082 996 976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0. I Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,270 5,781 6,338 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1,1 1.1 Installed Generating Capacity Coal GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 382.0 448.7 511.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.0 456.5 484.5 517.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.7 127.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,067.8 1,174.5 1,285.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

### Economic Growth Forecast

a

### Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-12

### Table 13.4.11 Trial Standard Level A High Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.88 5.97 6.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.05 2.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.58 5.66 5.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 2,691 3,195 3,671 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 1,082 996 976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.,^ 0.1 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,270 5,781 6,338 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 Installed Generating Cap city Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 382.0 448.7 511.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.0 456.5 484.5 517.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.-i 0.-1 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.7 127.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,067.8 1,174.6 1,285.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

### Economic Growth Forecast

a 

### Negative values refer to a reduction from theReference forecast.

13-13

### Table 13.4

. 12 Trial Standard Level 2 High Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener 

### Consumption

_____ 

### Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.(1 1.0 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.88 5.96 6.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.05 Other EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.04 2.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.57 5.65 5.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,366 2,691 3,195 3,673 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 2.8 2.0 2.0 Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,073 1,083 997 977 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.2 2.3 1.3 

### i . 11 1.3 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.' Al Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0? -0.1 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,271 5,782 6,341 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.7 1.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.2 381.9 448.7 511.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.44 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.1 456.9 485.0 518.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 l .? Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.6 127.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total(GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,068.1 1,175.0 1,286.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.5 !.5 1.5 a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

### Economic Growth Forecast

a 

### Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-14

### Table 13.4.13 Trial Standard Level B High Economic Growth Forecast NEMS

-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Con sum tion Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,761 1,892 2,026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 6.7 10.3 12.8 1.0 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.81 5.83 5.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.23 -0.30 -0.3 , Other EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.07 2.03 2.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0).0' Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.51 5.53 5.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.22 -0.28 -0.31 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.96 1.92 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.0 3 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,362 2,689 3,193 3,688 0.0 0.0 0.1 -5.2 -2.3 -1.9 18.2 18.2 18.2 Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,077 1,090 1,010 984 0.0 0.0 -0.2 4.8 7.9 15.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 114 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -1.3 -i Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables TWh) 357 357 467 492 506 535 554 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -1.0 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,438 4,846 5,275 5,792 6,361 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 4.7 11.8 23.7 23.7 23.7 Installed Generating C ^ap city Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 336.6 381.5 448.4 513.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 2.3 13 2.3 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.9 460.2 489.7 525.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.9 5.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.4 121.3 127.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 988.0 1,070.8 1,179.1 1,294.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.8 9.6 9.6 9.6 'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. a Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-15

### Table 13.4.14 Trial Standard Level 4 High Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,761 1,892 2,026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 6.7 10.2 12.8 1".0 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.81 5.83 5.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.24 -0.31 -0.3 3 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.07 2.03 2.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.0 3 -0,0-1 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.51 5.52 5.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.23 -0.29 -0.32 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.96 1.92 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,362 2,689 3,193 3,689 0.0 0.0 0.1 -5.4 -2.4 -2.0 18.7 18.7 1 Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,077 1,090 1,011 985 0.0 0.0 -0.2 4.9 8.1 15.6 8.6 S.0 8.6 Petroleum TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 114 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 506 535 554 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,438 4,846 5,275 5,792 6,361 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 4.8 12.1 24.3 24.3 3'.3 Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 336.5 381.5 448.4 513.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 2.4 ?.7 14 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.9 460.3 489.9 525.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.7 7.9 7.9 7.9 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.4 121.3 127.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 988.0 1,070.9 1,179.3 1,294.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.0 9.8 9. 9.8 a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

### Economic Growth Forecast

a 

### Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-16

### Table 13.4.15 Trial Standard Level 5 High Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Energy Consumpti Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,767 1,904 2,045 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 19.1 29.2 37.0 39.9 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.72 5.64 5.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.35 -0.53 -0.69 -0.76 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.06 2.01 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.42 5.34 5.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.33 -0.51 -0.65 -0.72 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.95 1.90 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07 -0.05 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,356 2,686 3,191 3,710 0.0 0.0 0.3 -11.3 -5.0 -4.1 39.6 39.6 39.6 Gas TWh) 600 752 938 1,082 1,099 1,028 994 0.0 0.0 -0.4 10.3 17.1 32.9 18.1 l ti.1 Is. I Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 107 104 108 112 0.0 0.0 -0.5 1.0 -0.5 -0.7 -2.8 -17.5 -2

### . 8 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables TWh) 357 357 466 492 506 534 553 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 -1.4 -2.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,438 4,846 5,280 5,806 6,389 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -0.3 10.2 25.7 51.6 51.6 51.6 Installed Generating Capacity Coal GW 314.9 314.9 324.8 335.7 381.0 448.0 516.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -1.0 -0.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.5 436.1 464.7 496.2 534.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 2.2 8.4 12.0 16.8 16.5 16.5 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.7 117.2 120.9 126.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.1 988.3 1,074.6 1,184.8 1,305.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.6 7.0 10.5 20.8 20.5 20.5 Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

### Economic Growth Forecast

a

### Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-17

### Table 13.4

.16 TMY System Load Low Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Residential Sector Energy onsumpti n' Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1192 1365 1472 1561 1647 1711 1772 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.59 5.54 5.48 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.30 5.25 5.19 Other (Quads)' 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.79 Total U.S. Electric Generation' Coal (TWh) 1969 2015 2138 2254 2368 2608 2869 Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 1023 973 944 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 493 497 498 Total (TWh)e 3791 4026 4334 4585 4805 5004 5221 Installed Generating Capacity' Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 338.4 368.9 403.1 Other Fossil (GW)1^ 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 433.8 441.8 459.7 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.5 117.0 Total (GW)" 789.5 969.0 1010.2 964.6 990.4 1029.9 1080.9 a Comparable to Table A2 of AE02007: Energy Consumption, Residential b Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector c Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators Comparable to Table A9 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability k Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators n Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells 

## Table 13.4.16 TMY SystemLoadLowEconomic Growth Reference Case Forecast NEMS-BT Results 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 Residential SectorEner2Y Consumptiona 

### Electricity Sales 

### (TWh)b 1192 1365 1472 1561 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 Other (Quads)" 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 

### Total U.S. Electric Generationd 

### Coal (TWh) 1969 2015 2138 2254 Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 93 101 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 Renewab1es (TWh) 357 357 468 482 Total (TWhY 3791 4026 4334 4585 

### Installed Generating Capacityf Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 OtherFossil (GW)g 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 Total (Gwy' 789.5 969.0 1010.2 964.6

a 

### Comparable to Table A2 ofAE02007: Energy ConsumptIon, ReSIdentIal

b 

### Comparable to Table A8 ofAE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector 

### 2020 2025

1647 1711 5.59 5.54 2.00 1.95 5.30 5.25 1.90 1.85

2368 2608 1023 973 100 103 821 823 493 497 4805 5004

338.4 368.9 433.8 441.8 103.7 103.7 114.5 115.5 990.4 1029.9

C 

### Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

d 

### Comparable to Table A8 ofAE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

e 

### Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

f 

### Comparable to Table A9 ofAE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability g Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

h 

### Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

13-18 

### 2030

1772 5.48 1.89 5.19 1.79

2869 944 104 806 498 5221

403.1 459.7 101.1 117.0 1080.9

### Table 13.4.17 Trial Standard Level 1 Low Economic Growth Forecast NEMS

-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load'' Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consumption

_____ Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,647 1,711 1,772 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 01 0. I Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.59 5.53 5.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.30 5.24 5.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 401 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U

.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,138 2,254 2,368 2,608 2,869 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0. 0. Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 1,023 973 944 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Petroleum TWh 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 493 497 498 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,805 5,004 5,221 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Installed Generating Cap city Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 338.4 368.9 403.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 433.9 442.0 460.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 O.3 U.= Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.5 117.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.2 964.6 990.5 1,030.1 1,081.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.! 0.41 'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. a

### Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-19

### Table 13.4.18 Trial Standard Level A Low Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load" Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener 

### Consumption

_____ Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,647 1,711 1,772 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.59 5.53 5.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.30 5.24 5.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,138 2,254 2,368 2,608 2,870 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 1,023 973 944 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Petroleum TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 493 497 498 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,805 5,004 5,222 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 Installed Generating Cap city Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 338.4 368.9 403.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Fossil GW 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 433.9 442.1 460.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.5 117.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.2 964.6 990.5 1,030.2 1,081.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

### Table 13.4.18 Trial Standard LevelA LowEconomic Growth Forecast

aNegative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

13-20

### Table 13.4

.19 Trial Standard Level 2 Low Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Con sum tion 

### Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,647 1,711 1,773 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.i Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.58 5.52 5.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 Other EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.29 5.23 5.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,138 2,254 2,368 2,608 2,871 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 1.6 1.6 1.0 Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 1,024 974 944 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Petroleum TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1) 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 493 497 498 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,805 5,005 5,222 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.-1 Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 338.3 368.9 403.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 

### 0.2 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 434.1 442.6 460.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 IT 1. 0 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.5 117.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.2 964.6 990.7 1,030.6 1,082.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 1 a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. a

### Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.

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### Table 13.4.20 Trial Standard Level B Low Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load° Extra olation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,650 1,717 1,780 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.6 8.0 9.-' 9.7 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.53 5.41 5.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.19 -0.24 -0.36 Other (EJ 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.94 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.0 3 -0.03 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.24 5.13 5.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.12 -0.18 -0.2 -0.24 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.84 1.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,137 2,252 2,366 2,607 2,879 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.1 .8 10.3 10.3 10.3 Gas (TWh) 600 752 847 941 1,028 980 944 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.3 .6 -0.2 -0.2 -0? Petroleum TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 .2 -0.2 0_' 0.2 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

j .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 491 496 497 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 .9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,806 5,009 5,230 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 14 4.7 9.4 9.4 Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW 314.9 314.9 324.2 324.2 338.0 368.7 404.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.3 435.9 446.8 466.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.4 116.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.1 964.8 992.1 1,034.7 1,088.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 1.7 4.8 7.9 7,0 7.9 Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

### Table 13.4.20 Trial Standard LevelB Low Economic Growth Forecast

a

### Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.

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### Table 13.4.21 Trial Standard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load' Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener 

### Consum ption

_____ Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,650 1,717 1,780 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.5 7.9 9.' 9.6 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.53 5.41 5.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.20 -0,25 -0.2 7 Other EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.94 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01; -0.0 3 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.24 5.12 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.19 -0.2-1 -0.2 5 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.83 1.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.0 3 -0.03 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,137 2,252 2,366 2,607 2,880 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.1 -2.1 -0.9 10.6 10.6 10.6 Gas (TWh) 600 752 847 941 1,028 980 944 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.4 4.8 6.8 -0.2 -0.12 -0.2 Petroleum TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0,12 Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 491 496 497 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.6 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,806 5,009 5,231 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 1.4 4.8 9.6 9.6 9.6 Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.2 324.2 338.0 368.7 404.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.3 436.0 446.9 466.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 6.7 6.7 6.7 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1) 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.4 116.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.1 964.8 992.2 1,034.8 1,089.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 1.8 4.9 8.1 ^. l ti. I a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

### Table 13.4.21 Trial Standard Level 4 LowEconomic Growth Forecast

a 

### Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.

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### Table 13.4.22 Trial Standard Level 5 Low Economic Growth Forecast NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada

--1 1 Extrapolation 

### 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 Residential Sector Ener Consumption 

### Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,655 1,727 1,795 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 15.6 23.0 28.1 29.7 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.45 5.24 5.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.29 -0.45 -0.50 -0.61 Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.92 1.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.00 -0.07 Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.16 4.97 4.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.28 -0.42 -0.5_ -0.57 Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.88 1.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.03 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06 Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,136 2,250 2,364 2,606 2,891 0.0 0.0 -1.8 -4.5 -4.4 -1.8 22.5 22

.5 22.5 Gas (TWh) 600 752 848 944 1,033 987 944 0.0 0.0 2.2 5.0 10.2 14.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0,4 Petroleum (TWh 111 122 93 101 101 102 103 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5, -0.z, Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables TWh) 357 357 467 481 490 495 497 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.3 -1.9 -1.2 -1,2 -1 Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,333 4,585 4,808 5,014 5,241 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 3.0 10.1 20.3 2(i. 20.3 Installed Generating Cap city Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.0 324.1 337.6 368.5 406.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4 3.2 3.2 , 2 Other Fossil GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.7 438.4 452.7 473.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.6 10.9 14.2 14.2 14.2 Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.4 114.4 115.4 116.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,009.9 965.1 994.1 1,040.3 1,098.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.5 3.7 10.4 17.2 17.2 17.2 'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

### Table 13.4.22 Trial Standard Level 5 LowEconomic Growth Forecast

a

### Negative values referto a reduction from the Reference forecast.

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### REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2007: With Projections Through 2030. February, 2007. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2007). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2007).pdt>

2. U.S. Department of Energy

-Office of Building Technologies. Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners andHeatPumps
, Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking, Life Cycle Cost Analysis Spreadsheet Model (Tariff-Based Electricity Prices). 2004. Washington, DC. <http://www. eere. energy

.gov/buildings/appliance-standards/commercial/ac_hp.html.> 

## REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department ofEnergy

- EnergyInformationAdministration.

## AnnualEnergy Outlook 2007: With Projections Through 2030. February, 2007. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2007). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2007).pdf>

2. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Building Technologies. 

## Commercial Unitary Air ConditionersandHeatPumps, EnergyConservationStandardsRulemaking,LifeCycle Cost Analysis Spreadsheet Model (Tariff-Based Electricity Prices). 2004. Washington, DC. <http://www

.eere.energy.gov /buildings/appliance

_standards/commercial/ac

_hp.html.>

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