CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

13.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................... 13-1

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS ..................................................... 13-1

13.3 METHOD .......................................................... 13-2

13.4 RESULTS .......................................................... 13-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 13.4.1 TMY System Load Reference Case Forecast ......................... 13-4

Table 13.4.2 Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast .................................... 13-5

Table 13.4.3 Trial Standard Level A Forecast ................................... 13-6

Table 13.4.4 Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast .................................... 13-7

Table 13.4.5 Trial Standard Level B Forecast ................................... 13-8

Table 13.4.6 Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast .................................... 13-9

Table 13.4.7 Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast ................................... 13-10

Table 13.4.8 Installed Generating Capacity: Difference from AEO2007

Ref with TMY System Load in 2030 (GW) ......................... 13-10

Table 13.4.9 TMY System Load High Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast ..... 13-11

Table 13.4.10 Trial Standard Level 1 High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-12

Table 13.4.11 Trial Standard Level A High Economic Growth Forecast .............. 13-13

Table 13.4.12 Trial Standard Level 2 High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-14

Table 13.4.13 Trial Standard Level B High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-15

Table 13.4.14 Trial Standard Level 4 High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-16

Table 13.4.15 Trial Standard Levels High Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-17

Table 13.4.16 TMY System Load Low Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast ..... 13-18

Table 13.4.17 Trial Standard Level 1 Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-19

Table 13.4.18 Trial Standard Level A Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-20

Table 13.4.19 Trial Standard Level 2 Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-21

Table 13.4.20 Trial Standard Level B Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-22

Table 13.4.21 Trial Standard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-23

Table 13.4.22 Trial Standard Levels Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-24

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

13.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................... 13-1 

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS ..................................................... 13-1 

13.3 METHOD .......................................................... 13-2 

13.4 RESULTS .......................................................... 13-3 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 13.4.1 TMY System Load Reference Case Forecast ......................... 13-4 

Table 13.4.2 Trial Standard Levell Forecast .................................... 13-5 

Table 13.4.3 Trial Standard Level A Forecast ................................... 13-6 

Table 13.4.4 Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 13-7 

Table 13.4.5 Trial Standard Level B Forecast ................................... 13-8 

Table 13.4.6 Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast .................................... 13-9 

Table 13.4.7 Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast .................................. , 13-10 

Table 13.4.8 Installed Generating Capacity: Difference from AE02007 

Refwith TMY System Load in 2030 CGW) ......................... 13-10 

Table 13.4.9 TMY System Load High Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast .... , 13-11 

Table 13.4.10 Trial Standard Levell High Economic Growth Forecast .............. , 13-12 

Table 13.4.11 Trial Standard Level A High Economic Growth Forecast .............. 13-13 

Table 13.4.12 Trial Standard Level 2 High Economic Growth Forecast .............. , 13-14 

Table 13 .4.13 Trial Standard Level B High Economic Growth Forecast .............. , 13-15 

Table 13.4.14 Trial Standard Level 4 High Economic Growth Forecast .............. , 13-16 

Table 13.4.15 Trial Standard Level 5 High Economic Growth Forecast .............. , 13-17 

Table 13.4.16 TMY System Load Low Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast .... , 13-18 

Table 13.4.17 Trial Standard Levell Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-19 

Table 13.4.18 Trial Standard Level A Low Economic Growth Forecast .............. , 13-20 

Table 13.4.19 Trial Standard Level 2 Low Economic Growth Forecast .............. , 13-21 

Table 13.4.20 Trial Standard Level B Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-22 

Table 13.4.21 Trial Standard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-23 

Table 13.4.22 Trial Standard Level 5 Low Economic Growth Forecast ............... 13-24 

13-i 
CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of residential furnace and boiler standard levels on the electric and

gas utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s National

Energy Modeling System (NEMS)a. NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium

model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a baseline energy

forecast for the U.S., the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The AEO for 2007 (AE02007) forecasts

energy supply and demand through 2030.' DOE used a variant of this model, referred to here as

NEMS-BT," to account for the impacts of equipment efficiency standards on the baseline energy

forecast. DOE's utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the

AE02007 Reference Case and for policy cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same

basic set of assumptions as the AE02007. For example, the operating characteristics (e.g., energy

conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants are as specified in the

AE02007 Reference Case, as are the prospects for natural gas supply.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by fuel

type, that result for each trial standard level (TSL), as well as changes in residential sector electricity

and natural gas consumption.

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the

analysis of energy efficiency standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known

and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the

comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy

supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the effects

of energy-efficiency standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate

marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficiency standards than

considering only average effects.

In the analysis of residential furnace and boiler standards, DOE substituted the default

NEMS system load shape with one that represents weather conditions for a typical meteorological

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Inforination Administration

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003),

March, 2003.

b DOE/ETA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification

to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy

scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS-BT (BT is DOE's Building

Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT was previously called NEMSBRS.

13-1

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

13.1 INTRODUCTION 

DOE analyzed the effects of residential furnace and boiler standard levels on the electric and 

gas utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA) , s National 

Energy Modeling System (NEMS)". NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium 

model of the u.s. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a baseline energy 

forecast for the U.S., the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The AEO for 2007 (AE02007) forecasts 

energy supply and demand through 2030. 1 DOE used a variant of this model, referred to here as 

NEMS-BT,b to account for the impacts of equipment efficiency standards on the baseline energy 

forecast. DOE's utility impact analysis consists of a comparison between model results for the 

AE02007 Reference Case and for policy cases in which standards are in place, and applies the same 

basic set of assumptions as the AE02007. For example, the operating characteristics (e.g., energy 

conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of future electricity generating plants are as specified in the 

AE02007 Reference Case, as are the prospects for natural gas supply. 

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by fuel 

type, that result for each trial standard level (TSL), as well as changes in residential sector electricity 

and natural gas consumption. 

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in the 

analysis of energy efficiency standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well known 

and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, the 

comprehensiveness ofNEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various energy 

supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of the effects 

of energy-efficiency standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate 

marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficiency standards than 

considering only average effects. 

In the analysis of residential furnace and boiler standards, DOE substituted the default 

NEMS system load shape with one that represents weather conditions for a typical meteorological 

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the u.s. Department of Energy, Energy Infonnation Administration 

documentation. A useful sunnnary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-058 1(2003), 

March, 2003. 

b DOE/EIA approves use ofthe name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any modification 

to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run under various policy 

scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS-BT (BT is DOE's Building 

Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT was previously called NEMSBRS. 

13-1 
year (TMY). This is referred to as the TMY system load.' DOE made this substitution to ensure

that the system load shapes in NEMS are consistent with other rulemaking processes, namely the

commercial unitary air conditioner and heat pump standard. As a result, the reference case DOE

used to evaluate the impact from a proposed furnace and boiler standard is no longer an exact

replication of the AE02007 Reference Case. DOE refers to the modified AE02007 Reference Case

as the TMY System Load Reference Case. The difference between these two reference cases is

minor. The total installed electric generation capacity and the total electricity generation are each

only 0.2 percent lower for the TMY System Load Reference Case than for the AE02007 Reference

Case in year 2030.

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AE02007 and treats furnace and

boiler efficiency standards as variations in policy. The effect of the policy is calculated as the

difference between the TMY System Load Reference Case and the proposed standard case. Because

the implementation of standards reduces total natural gas demand by less than five percent (between

0.04 and 2.2 percent in 2030) in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the

simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for the

TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. This method is

discussed in more detail below and in Appendix U.

DOE also considered the High and Low Economic Growth Cases of AE02007. The TMY

System Load Reference Case corresponds to medium growth. The High Economic Growth Case

assumes higher projected growth rates for population, labor force, and labor productivity, resulting

in lower predicted inflation and interest rates, and higher aggregate economic growth, relative to the

reference case. The opposite is true for the Low Economic Growth Case. The High Growth Case

reflects an average annual growth in gross domestic product of 3.4 percent per year compared with

3.0 percent per year in the Reference Case, and 2.2 percent per year in the Low Growth Case.

Different economic growth scenarios affect the rate of growth of electricity demand. DOE ran the

High and Low Economic Growth Cases for all six TSLs. These results also account for a 15 percent

rebound effect.

13.3 METHOD

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter

10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The national energy savings input includes a 15 percent

rebound effect. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for NEMS-BT to

produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger than the highest efficiency

standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to each TSL using

interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMS-BT, representing multipliers of each

TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual changes in

generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed description of the interpolation method is

given in Appendix U.

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG),

and oil consumption in the NEMS-BT Residential Demand Module. Energy use reductions are

13-2

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

year (TMY). This is referred to as the TMY system load.2 DOE made this substitution to ensure 

that the system load shapes in NEMS are consistent with other rulemaking processes, namely the 

commercial unitary air conditioner and heat pump standard. As a result, the reference case DOE 

used to evaluate the impact from a proposed furnace and boiler standard is no longer an exact 

replication oftheAE02007Reference Case. DOE refers to themodifiedAE02007Reference Case 

as the TMY System Load Reference Case. The difference between these two reference cases is 

minor. The total installed electric generation capacity and the total electricity generation are each 

only 0.2 percent lower for the TMY System Load Reference Case than for the AE02007 Reference 

Case in year 2030. 

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AE02007 and treats furnace and 

boiler efficiency standards as variations in policy. The effect of the policy is calculated as the 

difference between the TMY System Load Reference Case and the proposed standard case. Because 

the implementation of standards reduces total natural gas demand by less than five percent (between 

0.04 and 2.2 percent in 2030) in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the 

simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for the 

TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. This method is 

discussed in more detail below and in Appendix U. 

DOE also considered the High and Low Economic Growth Cases of AE02007. The TMY 

System Load Reference Case corresponds to medium growth. The High Economic Growth Case 

assumes higher projected growth rates for population, labor force, and labor productivity, resulting 

in lower predicted inflation and interest rates, and higher aggregate economic growth, relative to the 

reference case. The opposite is true for the Low Economic Growth Case. The High Growth Case 

reflects an average annual growth in gross domestic product of 3.4 percent per year compared with 

3.0 percent per year in the Reference Case, and 2.2 percent per year in the Low Growth Case. 

Different economic growth scenarios affect the rate of growth of electricity demand. DOE ran the 

High and Low Economic Growth Cases for all six TSLs. These results also account for a 15 percent 

rebound effect. 

13.3 METHOD 

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter 

10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The national energy savings input includes a 15 percent 

rebound effect. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be required for NEMS-BT to 

produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger than the highest efficiency 

standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results corresponding to each TSL using 

interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMS-BT, representing multipliers of each 

TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the results to estimate actual changes in 

generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed description of the interpolation method is 

given in Appendix U. 

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), 

and oil consumption in the NEMS-BT Residential Demand Module. Energy use reductions are 

13-2 
applied to the space heating end use and are divided among U.S. Census divisions. All residential

fuels are considered simultaneously, and the load-shape effects of improved furnace and boiler

efficiency are replicated as closely as possible.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the furnace and boiler

energy-efficiency standards analysis extend to the year 2066. It is not feasible to extend the forecast

period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method

for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable to make simple

linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be

contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by extrapolations of those outputs

could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal emissions factors. An analysis of various

trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any

case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are

simple replications of year 2030 results. While these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in

this way results are guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the

implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known

situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain

introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they

appear, they are shaded in grey to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.

13.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity,

and residential-sector consumption. Results are presented in five-year increments to year 2030,

including High and Low Growth cases for all TSLs. Beyond year 2030, an extrapolation to 2038

for each proposed TSL represents a simple replication of the year 2030 results.

The results from the TMY System Load Reference Case are shown in Table 13.4.1. The

reference case results for the six TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.2 through 13.4.7. Each table

shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 13.3, for residential sector energy

sales, total U.S. electricity generation, and installed capacity.

Residential natural gas consumption decreases for each TSL compared to the TMY System

Load Reference Case. The decrease in consumption is comparable to the amount of energy that the

National Energy Savings (NES) Model predicts will be saved by each standard, ranging from just

over 0.2 percent to just under 10.3 percent of total residential natural gas consumption by year 2030.

Residential electricity consumption remains virtually unchanged for TSL 1, TSL A, and TSL

2 compared to the TMY System Load Reference Case, changing by at most 1.1 terawatt-hours

(TWh) or 0.06 percent by 2030. For TSL B, TSL 4, and TSL 5, residential electricity consumption

increases compared to the TMY System Load Reference Case between 0.5 to 1.4 percent by 2030.

13-3

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

applied to the space heating end use and are divided among U.S. Census divisions. All residential 

fuels are considered simultaneously, and the load-shape effects of improved furnace and boiler 

efficiency are replicated as closely as possible. 

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the furnace and boiler 

energy-efficiency standards analysis extend to the year 2066. It is not feasible to extend the forecast 

period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method 

for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable to make simple 

linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable because outputs could be 

contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by extrapolations of those outputs 

could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal emissions factors. An analysis of various 

trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any 

case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are 

simple replications of year 2030 results. While these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in 

this way results are guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the 

implicit assumption is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known 

situation during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain 

introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they 

appear, they are shaded in grey to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results. 

13.4 RESULTS 

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity, 

and residential-sector consumption. Results are presented in five-year increments to year 2030, 

including High and Low Growth cases for all TSLs. Beyond year 2030, an extrapolation to 2038 

for each proposed TSL represents a simple replication of the year 2030 results. 

The results from the TMY System Load Reference Case are shown in Table 13.4.1. The 

reference case results for the six TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.2 through 13.4.7. Each table 

shows forecasts using interpolated results, as described in section 13.3, for residential sector energy 

sales, total U.S. electricity generation, and installed capacity. 

Residential natural gas consumption decreases for each TSL compared to the TMY System 

Load Reference Case. The decrease in consumption is comparable to the amount of energy that the 

National Energy Savings (NES) Model predicts will be saved by each standard, ranging from just 

over 0.2 percent to just under 10.3 percent of to tal residential natural gas consumption by year 2030. 

Residential electricity consumption remains virtually unchanged for TSL 1, TSL A, and TSL 

2 compared to the TMY System Load Reference Case, changing by at most 1.1 terawatt-hours 

(TWh) or 0.06 percent by 2030. For TSL B, TSL 4, and TSL 5, residential electricity consumption 

increases compared to the TMY System Load Reference Case between 0.5 to 1.4 percent by 2030. 

13-3 
Table 13.4.8 shows changes in installed generating capacity in 2030 for each TSL. The

increase in capacity at TSL B, TSL 4, and TSL 5 is due to the market shift from gas furnaces to

electric heating induced by the higher gas furnace prices associated with standards at these levels.

The results from the TMY System Load High Economic Growth Reference Case and TMY

System Load Low Economic Growth Reference Case, as well as the reference case results for the

six TSLs are presented under the High and Low Economic Growth cases are presented in Tables

13.4.9 through 13.4.22.

Table 13.4.1 TMY System Load Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential Sector Energy Consumption'

Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1192 1365 1483 1592 1701 1797 1895

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.73 5.76 5.76

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.46 5.46

Other (Quads)' 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87

Total U.S. Electric Generation'

Coal (TWh) 1969 2015 2145 2299 2520 2923 3315

Gas TWh) 600 752 891 1017 1053 983 976

Petroleum TWh 111 122 94 103 104 106 110

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516

Total TWh)e 3791 4026 4385 4712 5026 5381 5773

Installed Generating Capacity'

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.4 463.4

Other Fossil GW)s 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.1 464.2 494.6

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5

Renewables GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1010.9 975.5 1023.3 1102.5 1185.4

Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2007: Energy Consumption, Residential

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2007: Electricity Sales by Sector

Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

Comparable to Table A9 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 13.4.8 shows changes in installed generating capacity in 2030 for each TSL. The 

increase in capacity at TSL B, TSL 4, and TSL 5 is due to the market shift from gas furnaces to 

electric heating induced by the higher gas furnace prices associated with standards at these levels. 

The results from the TMY System Load High Economic Growth Reference Case and TMY 

System Load Low Economic Growth Reference Case, as well as the reference case results for the 

six TSLs are presented under the High and Low Economic Growth cases are presented in Tables 

13.4.9 through 13.4.22. 

T a e bi 13 .. 4 1 TMY S ,ys t em L d R oa e £ erence c ase F orecas t 

NEMS-BT Results 2000 2005 2010 2015 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption" 

Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1192 1365 1483 1592 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 

Other (Quads)" 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 

Total U.S. Electric Generationd 

Coal (TWh) 1969 2015 2145 2299 

Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1017 

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 

Renewab1es (TWh) 357 357 466 484 

Total (TWhY 3791 4026 4385 4712 

Installed Generating Capacityf 

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 

Other Fossil (GW)g 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 

Renewab1es (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 

Total (GW)" 789.5 969.0 1010.9 975.5 

a Comparable to Table A2 of AE02007: Energy ConsumptIOn, ResIdential 

b Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector 

2020 2025 

1701 1797 

5.73 5.76 

2.05 1.99 

5.43 5.46 

1.94 1.89 

2520 2923 

1053 983 

104 106 

856 862 

493 507 

5026 5381 

358.2 412.4 

441.1 464.2 

108.7 108.7 

115.3 117.2 

1023.3 1102.5 

C Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy 

d Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators 

e Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators 

f Comparable to Table A9 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability 

g Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators 

h Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells 

13-4 

2030 

1895 

5.76 

1.97 

5.46 

1.87 

3315 

976 

110 

856 

516 

5773 

463.4 

494.6 

107.5 

119.9 

1185.4 
Table 13.4.2 Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,895 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0. 0.2

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.73 5.75 5.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02

Other EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.45 5.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,145 2,299 2,520 2,923 3,315 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,053 983 976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.-'

Petroleum TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,381 5,773 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.4 463.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.i)

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.3 464.5 495.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.-; 0.4

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ().0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.9 975.5 1,023.5 1,102.7 1,185.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-5 
Table 13.4.3 Trial Standard Level A Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load'

Extra olation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption_____

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,895 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.72 5.75 5.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0,02

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.43 5.45 5.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,145 2,299 2,520 2,923 3,315 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,053 984 976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.^ 0.

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O.0

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,381 5,773 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.2 412.3 463.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.3 464.6 495.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.9 975.5 1,023.5 1,102.8 1,185.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.^; 02

'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 13.4.3 Trial Standard Level A Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-6 
Table 13.4.4 Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load"

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption_____

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,701 1,797 1,896 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.72 5.74 5.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0,05

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.42 5.44 5.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,145 2,299 2,519 2,922 3,315 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.9 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Gas (TWh) 600 752 891 1,017 1,054 985 977 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0. I

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 484 493 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (TWh 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,026 5,382 5,774 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 325.0 328.8 358.1 412.2 463.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.3 430.8 441.7 465.2 495.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 1. }

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1i.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.8 975.5 1,023.8 1,103.3 1,186.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1., 1.2

Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-7 
Table 13.4.5 Trial Standard Level B Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load'

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,704 1,803 1,904 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.3 9.5 11.7 12.4

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.66 5.62 5.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.22 -0.2S -0.30

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.04 1.98 1.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.011

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.37 5.33 5.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.21 -0.26 -0.2s

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,144 2,296 2,514 2,917 3,314 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.6 -5.9 -6.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7

Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,018 1,057 993 985 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.3 4.1 10.0 8.5 S.5 S.5

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables TWh 357 357 466 485 494 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,025 5,385 5,780 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 3.5 7.2 7.2 7.

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.8 357.5 411.4 463.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -0, l

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.6 473.0 431.0 445.0 470.6 503.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.9 6.4 8.4 S.4 8.4

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (GW) 789.5 968.7 1,010.6 975.7 1,026.5 1,107.9 1,193.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.2 5.4 8.2 2 S.2

'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-8 
Table 13.4.6 Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load'

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,704 1,803 1,904 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 6.3 9.4 1 1.7 12.3

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.66 5.62 5.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.22 -0.2 t -0. ,1

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.04 1.98 1.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.36 5.32 5.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.21 -0 27 -0.25)

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,144 2,296 2,514 2,917 3,314 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.7 -6.0 -6.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7

Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 1,018 1,057 993 985 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 4.2 10.3 8.7 8.7 8.7

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 103 104 106 110 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

-

0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 466 485 494 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,025 5,385 5,780 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -1.0 3.6 7.4 7.' 7.=1

Installed Generating Cap city

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.8 357.5 411.4 463.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.6 473.0 431.0 445.1 470.8 503.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 4.0 6.6 8.6 8.6 8.6

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.2 119.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (GW) 789.5 968.7 1,010.6 975.7 1,026.6 1,108.0 1,193.8 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 3.3 5.5 8.4 8.' 8.4

"Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 13.4.6 Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-9 
Table 13.4.7 Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load'

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption_____

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,483 1,592 1,710 1,815 1,922 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 17.6 26.7 33.0 36.0

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.48 5.64 5.57 5.44 5.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.32 -0.50 -0.64 -0.69

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.03 1.95 1.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07 -0,0k

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.19 5.35 5.28 5.15 4.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15 -0.31 -0.47 -0.60 -0.66

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.96 1.92 1.85 1.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,143 2,293 2,507 2,909 3,314 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.7 -12.7 -13.5 -1.5 -1.5

Gas (TWh) 600 752 892 . 1,020 1,062 1,005 995 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.9 8.9 21.8 18.5 1 .5 15.5

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 94 104 103 106 109 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 856 862 856 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 486 496 507 516 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,385 4,712 5,024 5,389 5,789 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -2.0 7.6 15.7 15.7 15.7

.

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.9 328.9 356.8 410.2 463.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -1.4 -2.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Other Fossil (GW 281.5 450.3 472.7 431.2 449.4 478.1 512.8 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.4 8.3 13.9 18.2 1 .? I ^.2

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 108.7 108.7 107.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables GW) 94.8 103.2 112.1 114.0 115.3 117.1 119.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (GW) 789.5 968.4 1,010.2 975.9 1,030.3 1,114.1 1,203.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 0.4 7.0 11.6 17.8 17.5 17.ti

" Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

Table 13.4.8 Installed Generating Capacity: Difference from AE02007 Ref with TMY S stem Load in 2030 (GW)

Plant type TSL 1 TSL A TSL 2 TSL B TSL 4 TSL 5

Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3

Other Fossil 0.4 0.5 1.3 8.4 8.6 18.2

Nuclear 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total 0.4 0.5 1.2 8.2 8.4 17.8

13-10

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

T a bi e 13 , , 4 8 I ns t a e II d G eneratIllg c a~aclty: 't D'ff; I erence f rom AE02007 R e f WIt 'h TMY S ~ystem L oa d' III 2030 (GW) 

Plant type TSL 1 TSLA TSL2 TSLB TSL4 TSL 5 

Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 

Other Fossil 0.4 0.5 1.3 8.4 8.6 18.2 

Nuclear 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 

Total 0.4 0.5 1.2 8.2 8.4 17.8 

13-10 
Table 13.4.9 TMY System Load High Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential Sector Energy onsumpti n'

Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,016

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.89 5.98 6.06

Other (EJ 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.05 2.04

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.58 5.67 5.74

Other (Quads)' 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93

Total U.S. Electric Generation'

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 2,691 3,195 3,670

Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 1,082 995 976

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020

Renewables TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556

Total (TWh)' 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,270 5,780 6,337

Installed Generating Capacity'

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 382.0 448.7 511.3

Other Fossil (GW)g 281.5 450.9 473.6 433.9 456.3 484.2 517.5

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.7 127.6

Total (GW)" 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,067.6 1,174.3 1,285.0

' Comparable to Table A2 of AE02007: Energy Consumption, Residential

b Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector

Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

' Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

f Comparable to Table A9 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

g Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

' Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

T a bi e 13 , , 4 9 TMY S ;ystem L oa dH' ll:?J hE conomlC 'G rowt hR£ e erence c ase 

NEMS-BT Results 2000 2005 2010 2015 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption" 

Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 

Other (Quads)C 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 

Total U.S. Electric Generationd 

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 

Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 

Petroleum (TWh) III 122 97 106 

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 

Total (TWhY 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 

Installed Generating Capacityf 

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 

Other Fossil (GW)g 281.5 450.9 473.6 433.9 

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 

Total (GWY' 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 

.. Comparable to Table A2 of AE02007: Energy ConsumptIOn, ReSIdentIal 

b Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector 

2020 

1,758 

5.89 

2.08 

5.58 

1.97 

2,691 

1,082 

105 

885 

507 

5,270 

382.0 

456.3 

111.7 

117.6 

1,067.6 

F orecast 

2025 

1,885 

5.98 

2.05 

5.67 

1.94 

3,195 

995 

109 

945 

536 

5,780 

448.7 

484.2 

119.7 

121.7 

1,174.3 

C Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy 

d Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators 

e Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators 

f Comparable to Table A9 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability 

g Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators 

h Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells 

13-11 

2030 

2,016 

6.06 

2.04 

5.74 

1.93 

3,670 

976 

115 

1,020 

556 

6,337 

511.3 

517.5 

128.6 

127.6 

1,285.0 
Table 13.4.10 Trial Standard Level 1 High Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada

Extra olation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Con sum tion

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 2 0.'

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.88 5.98 6.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.05 2.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.58 5.66 5.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 2,691 3,195 3,671 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 01S 0.I

Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 1,082 996 976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0. I

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,270 5,781 6,338 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1,1 1.1

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 382.0 448.7 511.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.0 456.5 484.5 517.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.7 127.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,067.8 1,174.5 1,285.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Economic Growth Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-12 
Table 13.4.11 Trial Standard Level A High Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Energy Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.88 5.97 6.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.05 2.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.58 5.66 5.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,367 2,691 3,195 3,671 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,072 1,082 996 976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.,^ 0.1

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,270 5,781 6,338 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.3

Installed Generating Cap city

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.3 382.0 448.7 511.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.0 456.5 484.5 517.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.-i 0.-1

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.7 127.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,067.8 1,174.6 1,285.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Economic Growth Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-13 
Table 13.4. 12 Trial Standard Level 2 Hi gh Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption_____

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,758 1,885 2,017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.(1 1.0

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.88 5.96 6.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.05

Other EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.08 2.04 2.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.57 5.65 5.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.97 1.94 1.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,366 2,691 3,195 3,673 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 2.8 2.0 2.0

Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,073 1,083 997 977 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.2 2.3 1.3 i . 11 1.3

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 115 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.' Al

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 507 536 556 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0? -0.1

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,439 4,846 5,271 5,782 6,341 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.7 1.8 3.6 3.6 3.6

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 337.2 381.9 448.7 511.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.44

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.1 456.9 485.0 518.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 l .?

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.6 121.6 127.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total(GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 987.7 1,068.1 1,175.0 1,286.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.5 !.5 1.5

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Economic Growth Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-14 
Table 13.4.13 Trial Standard Level B High Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Con sum tion

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,761 1,892 2,026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 6.7 10.3 12.8 1.0

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.81 5.83 5.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.23 -0.30 -0.3 ,

Other EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.07 2.03 2.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0).0'

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.51 5.53 5.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.22 -0.28 -0.31

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.96 1.92 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.0 3

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,362 2,689 3,193 3,688 0.0 0.0 0.1 -5.2 -2.3 -1.9 18.2 18.2 18.2

Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,077 1,090 1,010 984 0.0 0.0 -0.2 4.8 7.9 15.2 8.3 8.3 8.3

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 114 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -1.3 -i

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables TWh) 357 357 467 492 506 535 554 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -1.0

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,438 4,846 5,275 5,792 6,361 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 4.7 11.8 23.7 23.7 23.7

Installed Generating C^ap city

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 336.6 381.5 448.4 513.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 2.3 13 2.3

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.9 460.2 489.7 525.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.9 5.5 7.7 7.7 7.7

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.4 121.3 127.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 988.0 1,070.8 1,179.1 1,294.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.8 9.6 9.6 9.6

'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-15 
Table 13.4.14 Trial Standard Level 4 High Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,761 1,892 2,026 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 6.7 10.2 12.8 1".0

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.81 5.83 5.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.24 -0.31 -0.3 3

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.07 2.03 2.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.0 3 -0,0-1

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.51 5.52 5.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.15 -0.23 -0.29 -0.32

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.96 1.92 1.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,362 2,689 3,193 3,689 0.0 0.0 0.1 -5.4 -2.4 -2.0 18.7 18.7 1

Gas (TWh) 600 752 938 1,077 1,090 1,011 985 0.0 0.0 -0.2 4.9 8.1 15.6 8.6 S.0 8.6

Petroleum TWh) 111 122 97 106 105 109 114 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 467 492 506 535 554 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,438 4,846 5,275 5,792 6,361 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 4.8 12.1 24.3 24.3 3'.3

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.8 336.5 381.5 448.4 513.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 2.4 ?.7 14

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.6 434.9 460.3 489.9 525.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.7 7.9 7.9 7.9

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.6 117.4 121.3 127.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.2 988.0 1,070.9 1,179.3 1,294.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.0 9.8 9. 9.8

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Economic Growth Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-16 
Table 13.4.15 Trial Standard Level 5 High Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Energy Consumpti

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,495 1,622 1,767 1,904 2,045 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 19.1 29.2 37.0 39.9

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.49 5.72 5.72 5.64 5.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -0.35 -0.53 -0.69 -0.76

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.07 2.09 2.10 2.06 2.01 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.20 5.42 5.42 5.34 5.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.33 -0.51 -0.65 -0.72

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.96 1.98 1.99 1.95 1.90 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.07 -0.05

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,148 2,356 2,686 3,191 3,710 0.0 0.0 0.3 -11.3 -5.0 -4.1 39.6 39.6 39.6

Gas TWh) 600 752 938 1,082 1,099 1,028 994 0.0 0.0 -0.4 10.3 17.1 32.9 18.1 l ti.1 Is. I

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 97 107 104 108 112 0.0 0.0 -0.5 1.0 -0.5 -0.7 -2.8 -17.5 -2 . 8

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 885 945 1,020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables TWh) 357 357 466 492 506 534 553 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 -1.4 -2.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,438 4,846 5,280 5,806 6,389 0.0 0.0 -1.1 -0.3 10.2 25.7 51.6 51.6 51.6

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal GW 314.9 314.9 324.8 335.7 381.0 448.0 516.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -1.0 -0.7 5.0 5.0 5.0

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.5 436.1 464.7 496.2 534.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 2.2 8.4 12.0 16.8 16.5 16.5

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 111.7 119.7 128.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables GW) 94.8 103.2 112.3 114.7 117.2 120.9 126.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,011.1 988.3 1,074.6 1,184.8 1,305.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.6 7.0 10.5 20.8 20.5 20.5

Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Economic Growth Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-17 
Table 13.4. 16 TMY System Load Low Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast

NEMS-BT Results 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential Sector Energy onsumpti n'

Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1192 1365 1472 1561 1647 1711 1772

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.59 5.54 5.48

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.30 5.25 5.19

Other (Quads)' 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.79

Total U.S. Electric Generation'

Coal (TWh) 1969 2015 2138 2254 2368 2608 2869

Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 1023 973 944

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 493 497 498

Total (TWh)e 3791 4026 4334 4585 4805 5004 5221

Installed Generating Capacity'

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 338.4 368.9 403.1

Other Fossil (GW)1^ 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 433.8 441.8 459.7

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.5 117.0

Total (GW)" 789.5 969.0 1010.2 964.6 990.4 1029.9 1080.9

a Comparable to Table A2 of AE02007: Energy Consumption, Residential

b Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector

c Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

Comparable to Table A9 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

k Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

n Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 13.4.16 TMY System Load Low Economic Growth Reference Case Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results 2000 2005 2010 2015 

Residential Sector Ener2Y Consumptiona 

Electricity Sales (TWh)b 1192 1365 1472 1561 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 

Other (Quads)" 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 

Total U.S. Electric Generationd 

Coal (TWh) 1969 2015 2138 2254 

Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 

Petroleum (TWh) 111 122 93 101 

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 

Renewab1es (TWh) 357 357 468 482 

Total (TWhY 3791 4026 4334 4585 

Installed Generating Capacityf 

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 

Other Fossil (GW)g 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 

Total (Gwy' 789.5 969.0 1010.2 964.6 

a Comparable to Table A2 of AE02007: Energy ConsumptIon, ReSIdentIal 

b Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electricity Sales by Sector 

2020 2025 

1647 1711 

5.59 5.54 

2.00 1.95 

5.30 5.25 

1.90 1.85 

2368 2608 

1023 973 

100 103 

821 823 

493 497 

4805 5004 

338.4 368.9 

433.8 441.8 

103.7 103.7 

114.5 115.5 

990.4 1029.9 

C Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy 

d Comparable to Table A8 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators 

e Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators 

f Comparable to Table A9 of AE02007: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability 

g Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators 

h Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells 

13-18 

2030 

1772 

5.48 

1.89 

5.19 

1.79 

2869 

944 

104 

806 

498 

5221 

403.1 

459.7 

101.1 

117.0 

1080.9 
Table 13.4.17 Trial Standard Level 1 Low Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load''

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption_____

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,647 1,711 1,772 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 01 0. I

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.59 5.53 5.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.30 5.24 5.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 401

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,138 2,254 2,368 2,608 2,869 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0. 0.

Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 1,023 973 944 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Petroleum TWh 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 493 497 498 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,805 5,004 5,221 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

Installed Generating Ca p city

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 338.4 368.9 403.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 433.9 442.0 460.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 O.3 U.=

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.5 117.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.2 964.6 990.5 1,030.1 1,081.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.! 0.41

'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-19 
Table 13.4.18 Trial Standard Level A Low Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load"

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption_____

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,647 1,711 1,772 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.59 5.53 5.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.30 5.24 5.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,138 2,254 2,368 2,608 2,870 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6

Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 1,023 973 944 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Petroleum TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 493 497 498 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,805 5,004 5,222 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5

Installed Generating Cap city

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 338.4 368.9 403.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

Other Fossil GW 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 433.9 442.1 460.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.5 117.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.2 964.6 990.5 1,030.2 1,081.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 13.4.18 Trial Standard Level A Low Economic Growth Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-20 
Table 13.4. 19 Trial Standard Level 2 Low Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY Sy stem Loada

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Con sum tion

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,647 1,711 1,773 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.i

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.58 5.52 5.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04

Other EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.29 5.23 5.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.90 1.85 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,138 2,254 2,368 2,608 2,871 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 1.6 1.6 1.0

Gas (TWh) 600 752 846 939 1,024 974 944 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Petroleum TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1) 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 493 497 498 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,805 5,005 5,222 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.-1

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.3 324.2 338.3 368.9 403.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.0 434.1 442.6 460.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 IT 1. 0

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.5 117.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.2 964.6 990.7 1,030.6 1,082.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 1

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-21 
Table 13.4.20 Trial Standard Level B Low Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load°

Extra olation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,650 1,717 1,780 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.6 8.0 9.-' 9.7

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.53 5.41 5.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.19 -0.24 -0.36

Other (EJ 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.94 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.0 3 -0.03

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.24 5.13 5.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.12 -0.18 -0.2 -0.24

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.84 1.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,137 2,252 2,366 2,607 2,879 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.1 .8 10.3 10.3 10.3

Gas (TWh) 600 752 847 941 1,028 980 944 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.3 .6 -0.2 -0.2 -0?

Petroleum TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 .2 -0.2 0_' 0.2

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

j

.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 491 496 497 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 .9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,806 5,009 5,230 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 14 4.7 9.4 9.4

Installed Generating Capacity

Coal (GW 314.9 314.9 324.2 324.2 338.0 368.7 404.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.3 435.9 446.8 466.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 6.6 6.6 6.6

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.4 116.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.1 964.8 992.1 1,034.7 1,088.8 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 1.7 4.8 7.9 7,0 7.9

Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 13.4.20 Trial Standard Level B Low Economic Growth Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-22 
Table 13.4.21 Trial Standard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Load'

Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption_____

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,650 1,717 1,780 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.5 7.9 9.' 9.6

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.53 5.41 5.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.20 -0,25 -0.2 7

Other EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 2.00 1.94 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01; -0.0 3

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.24 5.12 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.19 -0.2-1 -0.2 5

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.89 1.83 1.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.0 3 -0.03

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,137 2,252 2,366 2,607 2,880 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -2.1 -2.1 -0.9 10.6 10.6 10.6

Gas (TWh) 600 752 847 941 1,028 980 944 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.4 4.8 6.8 -0.2 -0.12 -0.2

Petroleum TWh) 111 122 93 101 100 103 104 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0,12

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (TWh) 357 357 468 482 491 496 497 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.6 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,334 4,585 4,806 5,009 5,231 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 1.4 4.8 9.6 9.6 9.6

Installed Generating Ca pacity

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.2 324.2 338.0 368.7 404.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 1.5 1.5 1.5

Other Fossil (GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.3 436.0 446.9 466.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 6.7 6.7 6.7

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1) 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.5 114.5 115.4 116.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,010.1 964.8 992.2 1,034.8 1,089.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 1.8 4.9 8.1 ^. l ti. I

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 13.4.21 Trial Standard Level 4 Low Economic Growth Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-23 
Table 13.4.22 Trial Standard Level 5 Low Economic Growth Forecast

NEMS-BT Results Difference from AEO 2007 Ref with TMY System Loada

--1

1 Extrapolation

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038

Residential Sector Ener Consumption

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,192 1,365 1,472 1,561 1,655 1,727 1,795 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 15.6 23.0 28.1 29.7

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.38 5.25 5.44 5.57 5.45 5.24 5.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.29 -0.45 -0.50 -0.61

Other (EJ) 2.11 2.06 2.07 2.05 1.99 1.92 1.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.00 -0.07

Natural Gas (Quads) 5.10 4.98 5.16 5.28 5.16 4.97 4.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.14 -0.28 -0.42 -0.5_ -0.57

Other (Quads) 2.00 1.95 1.96 1.94 1.88 1.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.03 -0.05 -0.06 -0.06

Total U.S. Electric Generation

Coal (TWh) 1,969 2,015 2,136 2,250 2,364 2,606 2,891 0.0 0.0 -1.8 -4.5 -4.4 -1.8 22.5 22. 5 22.5

Gas (TWh) 600 752 848 944 1,033 987 944 0.0 0.0 2.2 5.0 10.2 14.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0,4

Petroleum (TWh 111 122 93 101 101 102 103 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5, -0.z,

Nuclear (TWh) 754 780 789 809 821 823 806 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables TWh) 357 357 467 481 490 495 497 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.3 -1.9 -1.2 -1,2 -1

Total (TWh) 3,791 4,026 4,333 4,585 4,808 5,014 5,241 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 3.0 10.1 20.3 2(i. 20.3

Installed Generating Cap city

Coal (GW) 314.9 314.9 324.0 324.1 337.6 368.5 406.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4 3.2 3.2 , 2

Other Fossil GW) 281.5 450.9 473.2 425.7 438.4 452.7 473.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.6 10.9 14.2 14.2 14.2

Nuclear (GW) 98.3 100.0 100.5 101.9 103.7 103.7 101.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Renewables (GW) 94.8 103.2 112.2 113.4 114.4 115.4 116.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Total (GW) 789.5 969.0 1,009.9 965.1 994.1 1,040.3 1,098.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.5 3.7 10.4 17.2 17.2 17.2

'Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast.

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

Table 13.4.22 Trial Standard Level 5 Low Economic Growth Forecast 

a Negative values refer to a reduction from the Reference forecast. 

13-24 
REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook

2007: With Projections Through 2030. February, 2007. Washington, DC. Report No.

DOE/EIA-0383(2007). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2007).pdt>

2. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Building Technologies. Commercial Unitary Air

Conditioners andHeatPumps, Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking, Life Cycle Cost

Analysis Spreadsheet Model (Tariff-Based Electricity Prices). 2004. Washington, DC.

<http://www. eere. energy. gov/buildings/appliance-standards/commercial/ac_hp.html.>

 EE-RM/STD-01-350 COMMENT 164

REFERENCES 

1. U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2007: With Projections Through 2030. February, 2007. Washington, DC. Report No. 

DOE/EIA-0383(2007). <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2007).pdf> 

2. U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Building Technologies. Commercial Unitary Air 

Conditioners and Heat Pumps, Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking, Life Cycle Cost 

Analysis Spreadsheet Model (Tariff-Based Electricity Prices). 2004. Washington, DC. 

<http://www . eere. energy .gov /buildings/ appliance _ standards/ commercial/ ac _ hp.html.> 

13-25