Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 5

Global 10-year treasury yields 6

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 7-9

Ginnie Mae yield spreads - Intermediate Credit 10

MBS yield per duration 11

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 12 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 13

National HPI, HPI by state 13-14 

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 15

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 16

Outstanding Agency MBS 17

Outstanding Ginnie Mae MBS volume by vintage and coupon over time 18

Characteristics of Ginnie Mae loansin forbearance 19-21

Origination volume over time 22

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 23-25 

Purchase versus refi: Refi Issuance Breakdown 26 

Credit Box 

First time homebuyer share—purchase only loans 27-28

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 29-31

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 32-33

Cumulative Default Rates: FHA and VA 34

High LTV credit box 35-36

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 37-38

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 39-42

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 43-44

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 44

Prepayments 

Aggregate 45

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 46-48

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS and Multifamily 49

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 50

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 51

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 52

Foreign ownership of MBS 53-54

Fed Ownership of MBS 55

CONTENTS
2020: Already a year of Record Issuance in the Ginnie Mae Program

2020 has been a tumultuous year for the US economy. The shock caused by COVID-19 has severely 

disrupted households and businesses. US real gross domestic product plunged at an annualized rate 

of 31.4 percent from Q1 2020 to Q2 2020. This was followed by a 33.1 percent bounce back in Q3. 

Despite the Q3 improvement, real GDP was down 1.6 percent compared to Q3 of 2019. The 

unemployment rate remains close to 7 percent, double its level before the pandemic. 

Despite these challenges, the housing market has remained very strong. Housing price appreciation 

continued to grow in 2020 as demand for housing significantly outpaces supply. Origination volumes 

skyrocketed as lower rates gave existing homeowners a strong incentive to refinance and improved 

payment affordability for first-time homebuyers. Page 23 shows gross issuance volumes for Ginnie

Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In the first 10 months of 2020 (i.e., Jan to Oct), Ginnie Mae’s gross 

issuance totaled $626 billion, the highest ever and 23 percent greater than the full-year 2019 gross 

issuance of $509 billion.

Origination of VA guaranteed loans, both in purchase and refinance activity, was the main driver of 

Ginnie Mae’s year-over-year jump in issue volume. FHA-insured loans totaled $269 billion from Jan 

to Oct 2020. VA-guaranteed loans added up to $337 billion, representing 54% of total Ginnie Mae 

issuance volume, a record high. The YTD 2020 gain in VA lending is noteworthy because it increased a 

hefty 49 percent compared to full-year 2019 volume of $226 billion, which was the previous record. 

FHA-insured volume YTD 2020 is up 1 percent compared to full year 2019. The relatively smaller 

increase largely reflects FHA’s mission of enabling first-time home purchase for low- and moderateincome households. 2020 was a large refinance year, a space in which FHA plays a smaller role than 

VA or Fannie and Freddie. As page 26 shows, FHA’s refinance share has historically been the lowest 

of any agency. While lower rates have pushed refinance shares for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and VA 

close to 70 percent as of Oct 2020, FHA’s current refi share, while up over last year, currently stands 

at 32 percent.

Table 1 shows historical purchase and issuance volumes for FHA, VA, Ginnie Mae and the GSEs.

Table 1: Origination Volumes by Loan Type: FHA, VA, Ginnie Mae, GSEs, $ Billions.

Source: eMBS and Urban Institute.

HIGHLIGHTS

FHA VA Ginnie Mae GSEs

Purchase Refi Purchase Refi Purchase Refi Purchase Refi

2014 $108.3 $30.2 $65.3 $42.7 $193.2 $73.2 $323.7 $298.3

2015 $152.8 $84.3 $77.6 $73.2 $248.0 $157.9 $363.6 $454.0

2016 $177.1 $83.9 $91.0 $110.3 $286.3 $194.6 $429.9 $534.5

2017 $175.4 $62.0 $98.6 $71.6 $292.8 $134.5 $472.8 $368.9

2018 $159.3 $44.7 $101.4 $48.6 $277.2 $93.6 $504.1 $258.3

2019 $169.5 $79.3 $111.5 $106.6 $296.3 $186.3 $557.9 $468.3

2020

(YTD 

Oct)

$158.5 $97.6 $112.1 $212.3 $288.5 $311.5 $571.3 $1,276.8
VA’s and the GSEs’ purchase volume YTD 2020 have already surpassed their respective levels in 2019, 

indicating a record year for purchase originations despite the pandemic. This reflects a combination of 

factors – strong demand for housing and improved payment affordability caused by plummeting 

mortgage rates in 2020. We expect the full 2020 calendar year totals to reflect historic purchase 

volumes for FHA and VA programs reflecting their resiliency even during a time of economic shock.

Highlights this month:

• We have added several new charts this month: outstanding Ginnie Mae volume by vintage and

coupon over time (page 18) and characteristics of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance (pages 19-21).

We have also updated the coupons used in the prepayment analysis (pages 45-48).

• Serious delinquency rates continued to remain elevated in Q3 2020 with FHA at 10.8 percent, VA at

5.77 percent, and the GSEs well over 3 percent (page 13).

• Ginnie Mae loans originated since 2019 now comprise 45.4 percent of outstanding loans, as older

vintages continue to refinance in substantial numbers (page 19).

• Total origination volume added up to $2.7 trillion in the first three quarters of 2020. These three

quarters alone were higher than any year since 2003, when originations exceeded $3.5 trillion (page

22).

• The first time homebuyer (FTHB) share of VA purchase lending fell to 50.4 percent in September

2020, the lowest level since October 2015. This reflects a bigger increase in VA repeat buyers than

FTHBs YTD 2020 (page 25).

HIGHLIGHTS
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 28 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index—less 

than either the US Treasury share (37 percent) or the US Credit share (32 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

accounts for 10 percent of the overall index, the largest MBS component, while Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie 

Mac 30-year MBS both comprise 7 of the market. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the remaining 

balance (4 percent) of the Barclays US Aggregate Index. US securities are the single largest contributor to the 

Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 37 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 10 percent of the global

aggregate.

37%

2%

32%

7%

10%

7%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

53%

9%

25%

10%

1%

2%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

5

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2%

3% 1%

37%

30%

21%

1% 0.04%

2%

0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of September 2020.

Note: Numbers in chart may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of September 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of September 2020.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

6

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of November 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of November 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of November 2020.

After experiencing COVID-19 related volatility in March and April of this year, government bond yields across 

the globe stabilized. Yields on the 10-year treasury fell slightly by 3 bps to 0.84 percent in November, though US 

treasuries remain the highest of the developed world. The yield on the Italian 10-year note, which has been 

higher than the 10-year sovereign debt of the US, Japan, and Europe for much of 2020, fell by 13 bps to 0.63 

percent. The yield on the UK 10-year bond grew by a modest 4 bps to 0.31 percent, while the Japanese 10-year 

government bond fell ever so slightly by 1 bp to 0.03 percent in November. The German 10-year yield grew by 6 

bps to negative 0.57 percent in November. At the end of November, the hedged yield differential between the 

10-year Treasury and the 10-year JGB stood at 20 bps, a tightening of 9 bps since October 2020. The hedged

yield differential between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year Bund stood at 44 bps, a contraction of 17 bps

since the end of October 2020.

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

7

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Nominal yields fell in November 2020, with GNMA II yields decreasing 9 bps to 1.15 percent and GNMA I 

yields down 15 bps to 1.25 percent. At the end of November, current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield

their Treasury counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 10-year Treasury yields) by 55 bps on the G2SF 

and 65 bps on the GNSF, a tightening of 6 and 12 bps, respectively, since last month.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

8

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of November 2020.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Japanese Yen, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the JGB 5/10 

blend at the end of November. More precisely, hedged into Japanese yen, the G2SF and GNSF have a 58 and 67 

bp yield, respectively, versus the JGB 5/10 blend. This represents a 15 bp tightening for G2SF and a 21 bp

tightening for GNSF since the end of October 2020.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

9

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of November 2020.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Euros, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the German 5/10 

Blend. The figures below show that at the end of November, the current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into 

euros have a 85 and 94 bp higher yield than the average of the German 5/10, respectively. This represents a 23 

and 28 bp tightening for the G2SF and GNSF, respectively, since the end of last month.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Nov-20

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of November 2020.

10

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Nov-20

U.S. Intermediate Credit - OAS US GNMA 30yr II - OAS

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Spread between Intermediate credit and 30-year GNMA MBS OAS

G2 30 MBS versus Intermediate Credit

After tightening steadily from mid-2016 to January 2020, the spread between US Intermediate Credit and GNMA II 

30 year OAS skyrocketed in February 2020 in response to the COVID-19 panic. This was followed by substantial 

tightening over the period of March-November 2020. The OAS on intermediate credit partially recovered from its 

enormous widening early in the year, while the Ginnie Mae II 30-year fell to multi-year lows. Despite this tightening, 

the spread between the two remains much elevated, ending November 2020 at 75 basis points in comparison to 21 

basis points at the end of January, reflecting heightened investor concern about corporate credit risk.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency ofsecurity and unhedged. 

Data as of November 2020.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most government securities with the same or longer durations. 

The only asset classes with significantly more yield are the US and Pan-Euro high yield and credit indices. 

Duration, a measure of sensitivity to interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield 

asset classes, as there is a large credit component, which has moved front and center in light of COVID-19.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.9 0.36

US 10y 9.5 0.84

GNMA II 3.0% 3.5 0.79

GNMA II 3.5% 2.3 1.40

JPY 5y 4.8 -0.10

JPY 10y 9.8 0.03

GER 5y 4.9 -0.75

GER 10y 9.8 -0.57

ITA 5y 5.1 0.04

ITA 10y 9.8 0.63

US credit 8.5 1.73

US credit >= A 8.2 1.39

US HY 3.5 4.70

Pan-Euro Corp 5.8 0.46

Pan-Euro HY 3.5 3.64

11

US 5y

G2 3.5% US 10y

G2 3.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Source: State Street

*A 2% max r

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.30 0.62 0.82 0.24 0.67 0.24

3 year 0.29 0.44 0.60 0.25 0.50 0.25

5 year 0.23 0.32 0.54 0.20 0.64 0.20

10 year 0.23 0.27 0.46 0.37 0.57 0.37

* ssumes 2 capitalization ma per issue

*Assumes 2% capitalization max pe is

Source: State Street

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.27 0.59 0.79 0.29 0.64 0.29

3 year 0.17 0.32 0.48 0.30 0.38 0.30

5 year 0.14 0.22 0.45 0.26 0.55 0.26

10 year 0.19 0.22 0.41 0.39 0.52 0.39

St S

p r i suer

*A 2% on max 

Source: State Street

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.53 1.37 3.06 2.76 4.39 2.76

3 year 0.65 1.23 2.01 1.64 2.70 1.64

5 year 0.59 1.14 1.69 1.41 2.29 1.41

10 year 0.64 1.05 1.47 1.37 2.04 1.37

* ssumes 2 capitalizatiCor o ma per issuer

12

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Co p

Pan Euro 

Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.50 0.43 0.26 0.11 0.14 0.11

3 year 0.26 0.26 0.24 0.18 0.14 0.18

5 year 0.23 0.20 0.26 0.18 0.24 0.18

10 year 0.29 0.21 0.28 0.29 0.26 0.29

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of November 2020.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade is less than other indices. However, the 

standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least price volatility over a 1, 

3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of risk for the Ginnie Mae index is 

highest among all asset classes over 1, 3 and 10-year horizons and third highest over 5-year horizons.
3.20%

3.04%

10.76%

5.77%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1Q074Q073Q082Q091Q104Q103Q112Q121Q134Q133Q142Q151Q164Q163Q172Q181Q194Q193Q20

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q3 2020.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

State of the US Housing Market

13

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Oct-01

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Bottom price tier Middle price tier Top price tier

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: Black Knight divides home prices in each region into quintiles; this figure shows the performance of the 

bottom, middle and top quintiles. Data as of October 2020.

Serious delinquency rates for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans and VA loans rose in Q3 2020, reflecting the 

impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These delinquency numbers include loans in COVID-19 forbearance. The bottom 

chart shows nationwide house prices for the bottom, middle and the top quintiles by price. House prices have risen 

most at the lower end of the market where Ginnie Mae plays a major role. Prices at the lower end of the market rose 

by 4.6 percent for 12 months ended October 2020, higher than the 4.1 percent for the top end of the market. Yearover-year price growth in October was lower than in September for the bottom and middle price tiers; top price tier 

growth remained steady from last month.

4.6%

4.2%

4.1%
State of the US Housing Market

bt,

ehold

De

hous

mortg

$9,833

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: 

rtgages,

HPI data as of October 2020. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when 

HPI reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to 

the lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 10/2020, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 59.9 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis peak 

valuation on a nominal basis by 19.6 percent. The picture is very different across states, with most states well in excess of the 

prior peak; six states remain below their 2007 peak, with Connecticut, at 10.4 percent below peak level, the most underwater.

14

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 74.9% -25.2% 59.9% 4.0% 19.6%

Alabama 36.1% -15.4% 36.7% 4.5% 15.7%

Alaska 69.5% -3.0% 26.8% 3.5% 22.9%

Arizona 109.9% -47.8% 93.4% 5.2% 0.9%

Arkansas 41.4% -9.8% 29.0% 3.6% 16.4%

California 154.7% -43.3% 97.6% 4.1% 12.1%

Colorado 40.3% -12.9% 86.8% 4.1% 62.7%

Connecticut 92.2% -24.7% 18.9% 3.1% -10.4%

Delaware 94.6% -23.5% 35.2% 4.4% 3.5%

District of Columbia 174.4% -13.7% 62.5% 5.1% 40.3%

Florida 128.2% -46.8% 80.2% 5.2% -4.2%

Georgia 38.4% -31.3% 71.3% 3.9% 17.7%

Hawaii 163.1% -22.5% 57.3% 4.2% 21.9%

Idaho 71.9% -28.7% 100.9% 6.9% 43.2%

Illinois 61.6% -34.4% 41.2% 1.8% -7.3%

Indiana 21.5% -7.9% 41.5% 3.5% 30.3%

Iowa 28.2% -4.7% 30.2% 2.5% 24.1%

Kansas 34.6% -9.1% 51.0% 6.4% 37.2%

Kentucky 29.6% -7.5% 36.8% 3.3% 26.6%

Louisiana 48.7% -5.1% 26.9% 3.2% 20.4%

Maine 82.0% -12.4% 47.4% 6.2% 29.2%

Maryland 129.2% -28.6% 31.3% 3.2% -6.3%

Massachusetts 92.3% -22.4% 60.8% 3.5% 24.8%

Michigan 23.8% -39.3% 82.0% 3.2% 10.4%

Minnesota 66.4% -27.7% 61.7% 3.8% 16.9%

Mississippi 41.0% -13.8% 32.5% 4.5% 14.3%

Missouri 42.6% -15.3% 41.7% 3.6% 20.0%

Montana 82.3% -11.3% 59.6% 4.4% 41.5%

Nebraska 26.7% -6.7% 46.8% 3.3% 37.0%

Nevada 126.9% -59.0% 129.2% 4.3% -6.1%

New Hampshire 90.5% -23.1% 48.3% 4.2% 14.0%

New Jersey 117.7% -28.0% 31.9% 3.4% -5.0%

New Mexico 66.7% -16.3% 33.1% 6.2% 11.3%

New York 98.3% -15.2% 47.3% 4.1% 24.9%

North Carolina 40.6% -15.8% 43.0% 4.3% 20.4%

North Dakota 53.5% -4.0% 58.8% 3.4% 52.4%

Ohio 21.1% -18.3% 42.5% 3.5% 16.5%

Oklahoma 37.4% -2.5% 25.2% 4.5% 22.1%

Oregon 81.8% -28.0% 87.2% 4.4% 34.7%

Pennsylvania 70.0% -11.7% 28.9% 2.6% 13.9%

Rhode Island 130.4% -34.1% 62.1% 5.3% 6.8%

South Carolina 44.9% -19.4% 41.7% 4.2% 14.2%

South Dakota 45.3% -3.9% 52.8% 4.9% 46.9%

Tennessee 35.0% -11.9% 52.4% 4.9% 34.3%

Texas 33.5% -5.8% 56.4% 3.8% 47.4%

Utah 54.8% -22.1% 85.2% 5.2% 44.2%

Vermont 83.5% -7.5% 41.0% 4.1% 30.5%

Virginia 99.6% -22.8% 32.4% 4.2% 2.2%

Washington 85.1% -28.6% 97.6% 5.9% 41.0%

West Virginia 40.3% -5.9% 24.9% 0.6% 17.6%

Wisconsin 44.7% -16.4% 39.7% 2.2% 16.9%

Wyoming 77.6% -7.2% 39.5% 5.2% 29.4%
State of the US Housing Market

bt,

hold

De

house

mortg

$9,833

rtgages,

Agency Issuance (past 1 year)

State GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg.

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000)

Agency Outstanding 

GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg. 

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000)

National 26.8% 2,783,986 253.9 278.0 25.6% 11,216,521 164.9 199.9

Alabama 39.6% 51,158 195.4 220.4 39.9% 237,365 128.7 159.5

Alaska 49.3% 9,025 311.6 278.6 45.2% 37,600 229.8 206.6

Arizona 27.7% 104,794 248.5 255.9 24.5% 308,970 168.6 193.0

Arkansas 37.0% 27,047 166.7 199.1 39.5% 139,286 111.1 144.3

California 19.7% 257,268 392.1 387.0 16.3% 758,796 270.0 287.0

Colorado 26.3% 86,931 331.5 319.8 21.8% 233,739 228.7 244.8

Connecticut 26.1% 21,919 237.6 263.9 25.9% 108,321 180.6 193.9

Delaware 33.2% 12,312 240.2 258.4 32.3% 52,247 179.8 190.9

District of Columbia 14.8% 2,428 495.3 435.5 11.9% 9,460 297.1 321.9

Florida 37.3% 237,617 243.9 246.4 31.3% 852,065 171.2 182.0

Georgia 35.1% 127,023 216.7 250.0 33.5% 513,637 145.7 180.4

Hawaii 42.6% 12,469 553.9 441.9 25.5% 32,520 381.6 327.6

Idaho 25.8% 21,927 251.8 248.6 24.9% 76,891 161.8 186.4

Illinois 19.1% 76,545 202.4 235.1 21.2% 365,643 140.0 166.5

Indiana 28.6% 65,137 170.1 191.3 31.6% 299,787 111.8 134.7

Iowa 18.2% 17,050 171.8 196.1 21.7% 86,064 114.2 138.6

Kansas 26.9% 20,440 182.7 212.0 30.2% 103,067 119.5 147.4

Kentucky 32.1% 36,483 176.9 198.4 34.3% 168,287 121.4 140.3

Louisiana 36.9% 40,462 193.1 228.0 37.9% 190,439 137.4 165.3

Maine 26.8% 9,857 210.8 234.6 27.3% 40,491 152.8 171.1

Maryland 37.3% 79,212 321.5 313.4 33.4% 298,500 228.9 228.2

Massachusetts 16.0% 33,125 329.9 337.4 15.8% 121,590 240.7 245.2

Michigan 18.1% 62,199 172.1 203.9 21.2% 299,768 114.2 142.5

Minnesota 17.7% 40,166 229.7 246.9 18.9% 180,482 156.3 181.1

Mississippi 45.0% 23,090 177.3 203.3 46.6% 117,305 121.3 147.3

Missouri 26.6% 55,578 179.6 208.3 30.0% 261,800 120.5 146.7

Montana 25.7% 9,338 252.7 256.7 23.9% 36,009 170.6 190.0

Nebraska 25.5% 14,646 196.1 203.5 27.8% 71,400 123.1 145.3

Nevada 35.5% 48,510 285.2 268.4 28.6% 139,720 196.0 205.2

New Hampshire 24.3% 11,319 265.6 263.1 24.2% 43,740 194.8 192.4

New Jersey 22.2% 55,909 283.1 315.3 22.8% 242,569 210.0 230.2

New Mexico 38.2% 19,786 210.1 223.8 38.1% 98,003 141.2 159.8

New York 20.7% 47,314 279.5 310.0 22.1% 323,538 186.5 222.8

North Carolina 30.5% 105,722 216.5 246.2 28.9% 431,002 142.5 176.5

North Dakota 21.8% 4,180 236.1 231.8 22.0% 16,779 167.3 173.5

Ohio 27.5% 86,357 169.7 191.4 30.5% 444,814 112.1 133.9

Oklahoma 41.3% 35,380 180.4 203.2 43.1% 195,514 119.6 146.2

Oregon 22.7% 38,843 295.9 296.9 19.1% 124,244 205.2 222.9

Pennsylvania 25.6% 73,336 193.1 234.0 28.4% 411,728 134.9 164.8

Rhode Island 29.1% 8,995 263.4 259.7 29.4% 36,668 192.8 193.0

South Carolina 36.3% 62,065 217.9 232.9 32.9% 231,694 149.0 170.1

South Dakota 26.3% 7,611 208.7 218.2 29.3% 30,708 143.2 161.3

Tennessee 33.4% 71,066 219.1 242.8 33.3% 293,655 141.1 177.0

Texas 33.1% 255,686 232.0 255.0 30.8% 1,089,894 147.1 185.7

Utah 20.1% 38,911 288.9 288.5 20.3% 118,648 199.7 228.4

Vermont 20.4% 2,694 216.1 232.7 18.6% 12,768 163.9 164.0

Virginia 38.5% 120,877 318.9 318.2 34.2% 448,204 215.2 228.5

Washington 24.4% 83,646 334.2 343.2 21.4% 264,224 225.5 252.4

West Virginia 44.8% 11,845 180.4 186.0 42.7% 56,382 125.9 132.1

Wisconsin 15.9% 31,577 195.5 211.2 17.0% 133,844 133.4 149.6

Wyoming 35.5% 7,111 240.7 248.5 34.4% 26,652 177.6 185.7

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of October 2020. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 

months, from October 2019 to October 2020.

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 25.6 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 26.8 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 11.9 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 46.6 percent in 

Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

15
State of the US Housing Market

$11.5

$21.8

$33.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q3

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

16

Debt Household equity Total Value

$0.43

$0.46

$7.30

$3.37

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q3

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Home Equity loans Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, eMBS and Urban Institute. Last updated December 2020. 

Note Top: Single family includes 1-4 family mortgages. The home equity number is grossed up from Fed totals to include the value of households and 

the non-financial business sector. Note Bottom: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, credit 

unions and other financial companies. 

The Federal Reserve’s Flow of Fund Report has indicated a gradually increasing total value of the housing market, 

driven primarily by growing home equity since 2012. The Q3 2020 numbers show that while mortgage debt 

outstanding remained steady at $11.5 trillion, total home equity grew slightly from $21.5 trillion in Q2 2020 to 

$21.8 trillion in the third quarter of 2020, bringing the total value of the housing market to $33.3 trillion, 30.3 

percent higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Agency MBS account for 63.4 percent of the total mortgage debt 

outstanding, private-label securities make up 3.7 percent, and unsecuritized first liens make up 28.9 percent. 

Home equity loans comprise the remaining 4.0 percent of the total.
State of the US Housing Market

As of October 2020, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $7.38 trillion: 42.6 percent Fannie Mae, 

29.4 percent Freddie Mac, and 28.0 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA 

have grown very rapidly since 2009, although since May 2020, FHA has contracted. FHA comprises 56.3 percent of 

total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 37.9 percent. Note that during the pandemic the GSEs 

have been growing faster than Ginnie Mae, courtesy of borrowers with home prices appreciating moving from FHA 

to conventional refinances and saving on the mortgage insurance premium.

17

$3.15

$2.06

$2.17

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

$1.2

$0.8

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of October 2020.
3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Outstanding Volume Share <3.0 3.0-3.49 3.5-4.0 >4.0 Avg Coup Avg. Coup

State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of November 2020. Average coupon is weighted by remaining principal balance. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of November 2020.

As of November 2020, the average coupon on outstanding Ginnie Mae pools was 3.39 percent, declining 

steadily over time. The share of outstanding MBS pools with coupons below 3.0 percent has grown 

exponentially in 2020 due to plummeting rates. The bottom chart shows that loans originated since 2019 now 

comprise a hefty 45.4 percent share of outstanding as older vintages continue to refinance in substantial 

numbers.

Outstanding Ginnie Balance, by Coupon

Outstanding Ginnie Volume, by Vintage

18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Pre-2008 2008-2013 2014-2018 2019-Present Outstanding Volume Share
Debt,

$9,833

mortgages,

household

State of the US Housing Market

In October 2020, a total of 790,158 Ginnie Mae loans were in forbearance, 27,066 of which were removed from 

pools (i.e. liquidated) during the month. Most liquidated loans (22,753) were FHA. Forborne loans removed from 

pools in October had measurably higher note rates and lower outstanding loan balances, and were more likely to be 

purchase loans than forborne loans that remain in pools.

All loans in forbearance – October 2020

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share Purchase Share Loan Count

Ginnie 662 4.1 $173,673 77.0% 70.8% 790,158

Bank 677 4.1 $137,600 72.0% 76.4% 124,033

Nonbank 660 4.1 $180,448 77.9% 69.9% 666,125

FHA 659 4.2 $171,000 77.6% 73.0% 596,375

Bank 671 4.2 $127,444 73.0% 78.6% 91,461

Nonbank 657 4.2 $179,240 78.4% 72.1% 504,914

VA 671 3.8 $218,693 68.4% 51.3% 135,596

Bank 687 3.8 $197,179 65.8% 64.9% 25,411

Nonbank 668 3.8 $223,303 69.2% 48.1% 110,185

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020. *Averages weighted by remaining principal balance of loans.

Loans in forbearance and removed from pools – October 2020

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share PurchaseShare Loan Count

Ginnie 663 4.5 $155,000 75.1% 81.6% 27,066

Bank 678 4.3 $138,000 73.4% 82.4% 14,422

Nonbank 652 4.7 $178,000 76.7% 80.8% 12,644

FHA 657 4.6 $151,000 76.2% 84.5% 22,753

Bank 673 4.4 $132,000 74.7% 85.1% 11,371

Nonbank 647 4.8 $173,000 77.5% 84.1% 11,382

VA 689 3.8 $210,000 60.0% 58.5% 3,208

Bank 691 3.9 $191,967 60.3% 65.2% 2,145

Nonbank 686 3.7 $247,000 59.3% 45.9% 1,063

19

Loans in forbearance that remain in pools – October 2020

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share PurchaseShare Loan Count

Ginnie 662 4.1 $172,608 76.9% 71.0% 817,661

Bank 677 4.1 $136,352 72.3% 76.8% 137,349

Nonbank 660 4.1 $180,025 77.8% 70.0% 680,312

FHA 659 4.2 $169,805 77.5% 73.2% 619,532

Bank 671 4.2 $126,801 73.4% 79.0% 101,797

Nonbank 657 4.2 $178,704 78.3% 72.3% 517,735

VA 672 3.8 $218,050 68.2% 51.5% 138,837

Bank 687 3.8 $195,033 65.5% 65.1% 27,569

Nonbank 668 3.8 $223,385 69.0% 48.1% 111,268
State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of November 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

The share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance is higher for nonbank issuers than for bank issuers for two reasons: 

(1) more recent origination is more likely to be forborne and comprises a larger share of the non-bank servicing

portfolio, and (2) banks have been more aggressive in buying forborne loans out of Ginnie Mae pools. Delinquent

buyouts by nonbank issuers continue to remain relatively muted (bottom charts, yellow areas).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Other

20

Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

Bank Issuers

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

Nonbank Issuers

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

6/1/2020 7/1/2020 8/1/2020 9/1/2020 10/1/2020 11/1/2020

Bank Forbearance Nonbank Forbearance All Forbearance Forbearance Share

Share of Ginnie Mae Loans in Forbearance
State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of November 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Ginnie Mae delinquent loans bought out of pools are more likely to be FHA than VA (top charts, yellow areas) 

and more likely to be higher coupons (bottom chart). In November 2020, 39,929 FHA and 3,698 VA loans were 

bought out. (These counts include all delinquent buyouts, regardless of forbearance status). Despite the 

increase in buyout activity during the pandemic, the vast majority of loans removed from pools have been 

payoffs triggered by ultra-low rates (blue areas).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

FHA

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

VA

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

21

Number of Loans Removed from Pools by Coupon

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

<3.5 Other

<3.5 Loss Mitigation

<3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

<3.5 Mortgagor Payoff

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

>=3.5 Other

>=3.5 Loss Mitigation

>=3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

>=3.5 Mortgagor Payoff

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.
State of the US Housing Market

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

2020

Q2

2020

Q3

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume

22

Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

2020

Q2

2020

Q3

First Lien Origination Share

In the third quarter of 2020, first lien originations totaled $1.14 trillion, up from Q3 2019 volume of $700 billion. 

The share of portfolio originations was 19.6 percent in Q3 2020, a significant decline from the 33.3 percent share 

in the same period of 2019. The Q3 2020 GSE share was up significantly at 61.9 percent, compared to 45.3 percent 

in Q3 2019. The FHA/VA share fell to 17.4 percent, down slightly compared to 19.5 percent last year. The PLS 

share was 1.1 percent in Q3 2020, down from 1.8 percent one year ago, and a fraction of its share in the pre-bubble 

years. The smaller share of portfolio and PLS in Q3 2020 reflects the impact of COVID-19, which made it difficult 

to originate mortgages without government support. The higher GSE share reflects the large amount of refinances 

done through this channel. Total origination volume added up to $2.7 trillion in the first three quarters of 2020—

these three quarters alone were higher than any year since 2003, when originations exceeded $3.5 trillion.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2020. 

19.6%

1.09%

17.4%

61.9%

$0.223

$0.012

$0.199

$0.706
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgage ,s

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 $266.9 $225.7 $16.0 $508.6

2020 YTD $269.3 $336.5 $20.2 $626.0

2020 % Change YOY 25.7% 92.7% 58.0% 55.9%

2020 Ann. $323.2 $403.8 $24.2 $751.1

 

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 $597.4 $445.2 $1,042.6 $508.6 $1,551.2

2020 YTD $1,060.2 $805.9 $1,866.1 $626.0 $2,492.1

2020 % Change YOY 126.9% 135.7% 130.6% 55.9% 105.8%

2020 Ann. $1,272.3 $967.1 $2,239.4 $751.1 $2,990.5

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of October 2020.

Agency gross issuance in the first ten months of 2020 was very strong at $2.49 trillion, already surpassing every 

full year of agency origination in the 21st century, including the previous high of $2.09 trillion in 2003. On an 

annualized basis, we expect 2020 to come in at about $2.99 trillion, as compared with the 2019 full year volume of 

$1.55 trillion. Compared to the same 10-month period of 2019, agency gross issuance was up 105.8 percent. 

Ginnie Mae gross issuance was up by 55.9 percent and GSE gross issuance was up by 130.6 percent. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA was up by 25.7 percent and VA origination was up by 92.7 percent.

23
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgages,

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 $35.9 $58.0 $1.9 $95.7

2020 YTD -$37.8 $59.1 $1.4 $22.7

2020 % Change YOY -220.8% 14.6% 6.9% -73.1%

2020 Ann. -$45.4 $70.9 $1.7 $27.2

24

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $53.5 $11.8 $65.3 $89.6 $154.9

2014 -$4.0 $30.0 $26.0 $61.6 $87.7

2015 $3.5 $65.0 $68.4 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $60.5 $66.8 $127.4 $126.1 $261.6

2017 $83.7 $77.0 $160.7 $132.3 $293.0

2018 $81.9 $67.6 $149.4 $112.0 $261.5

2019 $87.4 $110.3 $197.8 $95.7 $293.5

2020 YTD $235.1 $242.1 $477.1 $22.7 $499.8

2020 % Change YOY 225.6% 186.8% 204.7% -73.1% 107.6%

2020 Ann. $282.1 $290.5 $572.6 $27.2 $599.8

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of October 2020.

The first ten months of 2020 have been very robust for agency net issuance, with $499.8 billion of net new supply, up 

107.6 percent compared with the same period of 2019. 2020 YTD Ginnie Mae net issuance is $22.7 billion, comprising 

4.5 percent of total agency net issuance. This is down substantially from 2019 levels, reflecting a contraction in FHA 

securities outstanding.
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

 

t

hold

ges

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

house

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of October 2020.

mortga ,

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates rise, increasing when 

interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the same 

month in previous years. The October 2020 gross agency issuance of $339.7 billion is the highest single monthly 

issuance on record, significantly higher than the same month in 2019, as lower rates gave borrowers a stronger 

incentive to refinance.

25

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $136.6 $8.5 $10.7 $10.3 $29.5

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $98.1 $2.5 $6.5 $9.4 $18.5

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $95.2 $9.7 $6.2 $9.7 $25.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $97.0 $3.3 $0.4 $11.7 $15.4

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $99.3 $7.7 $2.7 $13.3 $23.8

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $110.7 $7.9 $2.4 $13.3 $23.5

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $113.5 $5.6 $3.5 $12.3 $21.5

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $121.1 $12.0 $6.7 $15.4 $34.1

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $115.5 $7.7 $3.8 $10.6 $22.0

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $115.9 $5.5 $12.5 $11.0 $28.9

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $118.5 $3.9 $13.6 $8.3 $25.8

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $111.5 $9.2 $8.1 $7.0 $24.4

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.1 $0.2 $7.7 $20.0

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.3 $2.2 $7.1 $17.6

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $6.3 $14.1

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.0 $8.8 $16.5

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $5.1 $7.2 $10.5 $22.8

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.5 $6.8 $10.3 $19.6

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $10.4 $18.3

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $15.8 $7.9 $12.5 $36.1

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.9 $6.2 $9.0 $21.1

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $9.7 $7.1 $11.4 $28.2

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $3.6 $11.0 $9.8 $24.4

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $8.2 $22.8

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.9 $2.5 $9.2 $17.6

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.4 $3.4 $4.6 $9.3

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.8 $10.3 $5.6 $17.6

Apr-19 $33.1 $30.8 $32.9 $96.8 $1.3 $10.8 $8.3 $20.4

May-19 $44.5 $34.3 $38.8 $117.6 $6.7 $9.8 $9.4 $26.0

Jun-19 $44.6 $34.0 $43.3 $121.9 $1.9 $5.9 $9.0 $16.8

Jul-19 $51.7 $36.9 $45.9 $134.5 $10.9 $10.1 $11.0 $32.0

Aug-19 $71.1 $50.4 $51.2 $172.6 $20.8 $17.1 $8.7 $46.6

Sep-19 $67.1 $43.0 $52.0 $162.1 $14.1 $7.5 $6.5 $28.0

Oct-19 $65.0 $46.2 $58.4 $169.6 $7.4 $7.1 $11.9 $26.5

Nov-19 $68.1 $50.7 $54.3 $173.1 $5.2 $8.6 $4.1 $18.0

Dec-19 $62.1 $52.5 $52.7 $167.3 $10.1 $17.3 $7.4 $34.7

Jan-20 $61.7 $51.4 $56.0 $169.0 $9.1 $16.5 $8.6 $34.2

Feb-20 $56.5 $39.5 $51.2 $147.2 $9.4 $7.9 $7.1 $24.4

Mar-20 $69.5 $41.1 $53.0 $163.9 $17.9 $6.3 $8.8 $33.0

Apr-20 $101.6 $76.3 $61.4 $239.3 $30.5 $27.5 $10.2 $68.2

May-20 $124.3 $70.6 $60.8 $255.7 $35.2 $8.2 $5.7 $49.1

Jun-20 $118.9 $78.1 $58.5 $255.4 $30.0 $15.9 $1.3 $47.2

Jul-20 $125.0 $108.1 $66.5 $299.5 $23.4 $38.0 -$15.5 $45.9

Aug-20 $137.6 $113.6 $73.6 $324.8 $34.2 $43.4 -$4.1 $73.5

Sep-20 $122.9 $102.1 $72.4 $297.5 $16.5 $29.9 $1.0 $47.5

Oct-20 $142.3 $124.8 $72.6 $339.7 $28.9 $48.3 -$0.3 $76.9

Monthly Agency Issuance
$25.0

$103.3

$61.0

$15.2 $2.6 $0.2

$2.5

$19.7

$20.5

$6.5

$2.1 $0.8 

$12.2

$33.5

$18.8

$3.4

$0.6 $0.2 

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Streamlined Cash-out Not streamlined, not cash-out

Coupon

$ billions

Ginnie Mae Refinance Issuance by Type: 2020 YTD

US Agency Market, Originations

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of October 2020.

The FHA refinance share stood at 32.3 percent in October 2020, below the 69.4 percent refi share for Freddie 

originations, the 69.2 percent share for Fannie, and the 66.6 percent share for the VA. The total Ginnie refinance 

share stood at 50.9 percent in October. Refinances as a share of all originations grew during 2019 and early 2020 

as interest rates fell. Refinances have declined slightly from their peaks but remain at high levels, as interest rates 

have stabilized at generational lows. The bottom section shows that nearly all of 2020 YTD Ginnie Mae refinances, 

predominantly streamlined, were securitized in lower coupon pools. Cash-out refinances are typically securitized 

in higher coupons, but their volume has fallen sharply in recent months due to restrictions Ginnie Mae put in place 

in late 2019, to combat the “churning” problem.

26

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Percent Refi at Issuance

Refishare Freddie Fannie Ginnie FHA VA

69%

67%

51%

32%

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of October 2020.
Credit Box

39.9%

44.7%

68.7%

51.1%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 68.7 percent in October 2020, down slightly 

from 70.4 percent in October 2019. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of the Ginnie 

Mae purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 44.7 

percent and 39.9 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase originations, respectively. The bottom table 

shows that based on mortgages originated in October 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely 

than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a higher LTV, a similar DTI, 

and pay a slightly higher rate.

27

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 299,486 322,921 276,401 298,793 240,081 293,722 265,919 306,112 

Credit Score 750.4 760.2 746.7 756.8 689.6 704.5 722.6 744.8 

LTV (%) 87.4 79.9 87.8 79.1 96.9 96.0 91.7 83.7 

DTI (%) 34.0 35.0 34.4 35.6 41.1 41.6 37.2 36.9 

Loan Rate (%) 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of October 2020.
Credit Box

76.6%

50.6%

76.7%

68.7%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Breakdown

 

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront 

mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of October 2020.

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 76.7 percent of FHA loans, 50.6 percent of VA loans and 76.6 percent of 

other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in October 2020. The bottom table shows that based 

on mortgages originated in September 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average 

repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a higher LTV, lower DTI and pay a comparable rate.

28

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 232,556 249,280 297,238 352,288 171,522 179,570 240,081 293,722 

Credit Score 679.1 677.6 714.7 730.3 700.7 695.3 689.6 704.5 

LTV (%) 95.6 94.2 99.5 97.1 99.4 99.0 96.9 96.0 

DTI (%) 42.8 43.6 39.4 40.8 34.8 35.4 41.1 41.6 

Loan Rate (%) 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Includes only purchase loans. Data as of October 2020.
t,

rtgages,

house

mort

$9,833

hold

Deb

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 412,181 656 718 744 782 801 735 

Fannie 154,973 692 737 762 795 803 754 

Freddie 123,355 696 730 766 791 804 757 

Ginnie 133,853 634 655 685 731 775 694 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 723,061 692 732 772 795 807 759 

Fannie 344,853 705 743 776 797 808 765 

Freddie 287,592 702 739 774 795 807 763 

Ginnie 90,616 646 679 726 776 800 724 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,135,242 675 718 763 791 805 751 

Fannie 499,826 701 737 772 795 807 762 

Freddie 410,947 700 736 771 794 806 761 

Ginnie 224,469 639 662 699 753 790 706 

 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 133,853 634 655 685 731 775 694 

FHA 78,962 629 647 672 704 742 679 

VA 41,014 647 676 724 772 797 722 

Other 13,877 644 663 695 735 767 699 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 90,616 646 679 726 776 800 724 

FHA 22,477 625 648 676 708 749 680 

VA 67,192 662 698 747 785 803 739 

Other 947 659 678 716 755 787 717 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 224,469 639 662 699 753 790 706 

FHA 101,439 628 648 673 705 744 679 

VA 108,206 655 689 739 781 801 732 

Other 14,824 645 664 696 737 768 701 

October 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of October 2020.

In October 2020, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 699 versus 772 for Fannie Mae and 771 for Freddie Mac. 

Note that the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 639 for Ginnie Mae, versus 701 for Fannie Mae and 700 for 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 673, VA loans have a median 

FICO score of 739 and other loans have a median FICO score of 696.

29
October 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

old

m rtgages,

Debt,

househ

or

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 412,495 71.0 80.0 94.8 96.5 100.0 87.1 

Fannie 155,065 65.0 80.0 83.0 95.0 95.0 82.6 

Freddie 123,412 65.0 80.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 82.4 

Ginnie 134,018 94.4 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.6 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 754,455 44.0 57.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 67.8 

Fannie 344,865 41.0 54.0 66.0 75.0 80.0 63.8 

Freddie 287,605 43.0 55.0 68.0 75.0 81.0 64.7 

Ginnie 121,985 68.1 80.6 90.0 96.8 99.8 86.6 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,166,950 48.0 62.0 77.0 90.0 96.5 74.6 

Fannie 499,930 45.0 58.0 73.0 80.0 95.0 69.6 

Freddie 411,017 46.0 59.0 73.0 80.0 93.0 70.0 

Ginnie 256,003 77.3 89.3 96.5 98.6 100.4 91.8 

 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 134,018 94.4 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.6 

FHA 79,071 94.5 95.8 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.3 

VA 41,048 92.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.3 98.3 

Other 13,899 95.9 99.4 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.3 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 121,985 68.1 80.6 90.0 96.8 99.8 86.6 

FHA 36,707 76.0 81.6 92.0 96.5 97.8 88.5 

VA 84,259 64.9 78.7 89.4 97.1 100.4 85.6 

Other 1,019 78.2 89.7 97.0 100.2 101.0 93.0 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 256,003 77.3 89.3 96.5 98.6 100.4 91.8 

FHA 115,778 82.7 94.1 96.5 96.5 96.5 93.1

VA 125,307 69.8 83.0 95.0 100.0 101.5 89.8 

Other 14,918 94.6 99.1 101.0 101.0 101.0 98.9 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of October 2020.

In October 2020, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, compared to 73 percent for 

both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 100.4 percent for Ginnie Mae, versus 93 percent for 

Freddie and 95 percent for Fannie. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 95.0 for VA 

and 101.0 for other programs.

30
De

mortgages,

hous

rt

$9,833

ehold

bt,

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 412,137 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 49.0 36.8 

Fannie 155,054 21.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 46.0 34.9 

Freddie 123,409 21.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 46.0 34.5 

Ginnie 133,674 28.3 34.9 42.0 48.4 53.5 41.3 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 661,881 19.0 25.0 32.0 40.0 45.0 32.2 

Fannie 344,809 18.0 24.0 32.0 40.0 45.0 31.9 

Freddie 287,597 19.0 25.0 32.0 40.0 45.0 32.1 

Ginnie 29,475 22.0 30.0 37.2 45.7 52.0 37.3 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,074,018 20.0 26.0 35.0 42.0 47.0 34.0 

Fannie 499,863 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 46.0 32.8 

Freddie 411,006 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.8 

Ginnie 163,149 27.0 33.8 41.3 48.0 53.3 40.5 

 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 133,674 28.3 34.9 42.0 48.4 53.5 41.3 

FHA 79,048 30.6 37.3 44.0 49.6 54.1 43.0 

VA 40,748 26.1 33.0 40.7 47.5 53.1 40.1

Other 13,878 25.5 30.5 35.7 40.2 43.2 35.0 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 29,475 22.0 30.0 37.2 45.7 52.0 37.3 

FHA 11,477 27.1 33.3 41.4 48.3 53.5 40.5 

VA 17,433 20.2 27.7 35.0 43.4 50.5 35.4 

Other 565 17.2 22.1 30.1 36.7 41.9 29.7 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 163,149 27.0 33.8 41.3 48.0 53.3 40.5 

FHA 90,525 30.0 36.9 43.7 49.5 54.0 42.7 

VA 58,181 24.0 31.5 39.1 46.5 52.6 38.7 

Other 14,443 25.0 30.2 35.6 40.2 43.2 34.8 

October 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of October 2020.

In October 2020, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 41.3 percent, considerably higher than the 

33.0 percent median DTI for both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 53.3 

percent, also much higher than the 46.0 percent DTI for Fannie Mae and 45.0 percent for Freddie Mac. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 43.7 percent, versus 39.1 percent for VA and 35.6 percent for 

other lending programs.

31
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

771

772

699

763

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

32

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of October 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in October 2020 was 763, up considerably since the 

start of last year, owing to the refinance wave, which higher FICO borrowers take advantage of with greater 

frequency. In addition, the increases in refinance activity have been much more dramatic at the GSEs than at 

Ginnie Mae, shifting the composition toward higher FICO scores borrowers. Note since early 2019, the median 

FICO scores for Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie borrowers have moved up for both purchase and refinance loans. 

The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrower FICOs is considerably wider for purchase loans than 

for refi loans.
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 73–74 LTVs for 

the GSEs. Median debt-to-income ratios for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably 

higher than for the GSEs. DTIs increased in the 2017-2018 period for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with the 

movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are very typical in an environment of rising 

interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies witnessed measurable declines in DTI, beginning in early 

2019, driven by lower interest rates, with larger declines in GSE securities..

33

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of October 2020.

77.0

73.0

33.0

41.3

35.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI
Credit Box: Historical

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

FHA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

34

DTI<=45, FICO <=660 DTI <=45, FICO>660

DTI>45, FICO <=660 DTI>45, FICO>660

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

VA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=700 DTI <=45, FICO>700

DTI>45, FICO <=700 DTI>45, FICO>700

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of November 2020.

DTI is a much weaker predictor of performance than FICO score. The top chart shows FHA borrowers with higher 

DTIs do default more than those with lower DTIs, but the differences are modest, as evidenced by the fact that the 

black line is very close to the blue line and the grey line is not that much above the yellow line. By contrast, FICO 

makes a much larger difference, as can be seen by comparing the blue line to the yellow line or the black line to the 

gray line. And low DTI/low FICO borrowers default much less than high DTI/high FICO borrowers, as can be seen 

by comparing the blue line to the gray line. The bottom chart, for VA borrowers illustrates the same point; DTI is a 

much weaker predictor of loan performance than credit score.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of November 2020.
94%

81%

58%

41%

31%

95%

87%

62%

37%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

35

93%

81%

59%

41%

32%

94%

86%

61%

37%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

August 2018- November 2018 August 2020- November 2020

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

98%

93%

80%

60%

47%

99% 98%

92%

65%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In August 2020- November 

2020, Ginnie Mae accounted for 94 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, 

compared to just 29 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI 

bucket looks a lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In August 2020− November 2020, Ginnie Mae’s share of 

issuance was higher for DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share of 

loans with a DTI of 45 and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 92 percent; it was between 61-62 percent for the 

same FICO in the lower DTI buckets. Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear the GSEs have stepped 

up their higher LTV lending for borrowers with FICOs of 700 or higher for DTIs less than 45 (the less than 35 and 

the 35-45 buckets).
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

August 2018-November 2018

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

36

< 35 2.7% 4.5% 2.6% 6.8% 8.9% 25.5%

35 −45 5.2% 8.9% 4.8% 11.4% 10.1% 40.5%

≥ 45 4.8% 8.8% 4.3% 9.3% 6.7% 34.0%

All 12.7% 22.2% 11.7% 27.6% 25.8% 100.0%

August 2020-November 2020

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 1.6% 4.8% 3.0% 8.7% 13.1% 31.2%

35 −45 2.9% 8.7% 5.1% 13.0% 12.7% 42.4%

≥ 45 2.3% 7.0% 3.4% 7.7% 6.0% 26.4%

All 6.8% 20.5% 11.4% 29.4% 31.9% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

August 2018- November 2018 71.5% 22.3% 38.4%

August 2020- November 2020 71.9% 10.4% 20.1%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 71.9 percent of its issuances in the August 2020- November 2020 

period having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 10.4 percent for the GSEs. The GSEs have decreased their highLTV lending share from 22.3 percent in August 2018− November 2018. Ginnie Mae’s high-LTV remained stable 

over the same period. The share of high-LTV agency loans going to highest FICO borrowers (i.e. above 750) has 

increased from the August 2018-November 2018 period to the August 2020-November 2020 period, as has the 

share of lower DTI borrowers (below 35).
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of October 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of October 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

37

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

91.8%

74.5%

70.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

The nonbank origination share has been rising steadily for all three agencies since 2013. The Ginnie Mae 

nonbank share has been consistently higher than the GSEs, standing at 91.8 percent in October 2020, a new 

record high. Freddie and Fannie’s nonbank shares both declined very slightly to 70.0 percent in October (note 

that these numbers can be volatile on a month-to-month basis). Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all 

have higher nonbank origination shares for refi activity than for purchase activity. Freddie Mac’s nonbank share 

is the lowest among the three agencies for purchase loans; Fannie Mae has the lowest nonbank share for refi 

loans.
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of October 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of October 2020.

In October 2020, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share rose very slightly to 91.8 percent. The nonbank originator share 

for FHA fell slightly to 93.0 percent in October, compared to 93.6 percent the previous month. The nonbank 

originator share for VA was higher than last month at 91.0 percent and the nonbank originator share for other 

loans, which can fluctuate quite a bit month to month, fell to 90.9 percent.

38

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

93%

92%

91%
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of October 2020. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of October 2020. 

764

771

760

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

780

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

39

Aug-20

Oct-20

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020. 

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. FICO scores for loans originated by 

nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, where the differentials between banks and 

non-banks are small, FICO scores for both have increased since early 2014. The sharp rise in bank and non-bank FICOs 

reflects an increase in GSE refinance activity, producing a shift in their business mix toward higher FICO borrowers. 

Within the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations are much higher since early 2014 while nonbank 

FICOs are up somewhat less. This reflects both the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks, and increased refi 

activity for higher FICO borrowers.
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020. 

40

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTVs for nonbank and bank originations are comparable, while the median DTI for nonbank loans is higher 

than for bank loans, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in both this and the FICO dimension. Between 

early 2017 and early 2019, there was a substantial increase in DTIs; over the subsequent months, this has mostly 

reversed in the Ginnie Mae space, and more than completely reversed for the GSEs, leaving GSE DTIs lower than they 

have been at any point in the last 7 years. This is true for both Ginnie Mae and the GSEs, for banks and nonbanks. As 

interest rates increased, DTIs rose, because borrower payments were driven up relative to incomes. With the fall in 

interest rates in 2019 and 2020, DTIs have dropped.
650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of October 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of October 2020.

The median FICO score for Ginnie Mae nonbank originators grew slightly in October 2020. Bank FICOs are 13 

points above non-banks. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent for all categories of 

government lending.

41

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of October 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of October 2020.
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of October 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of October 2020.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA borrowers experienced notable increases during 2017 and 2018 

for both banks and nonbank originators, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are 

expected in a rising rate environment. After peaking in January 2019, Ginnie DTIs have reverted to 2017 levels, 

as rates have declined.

42

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of October 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of October 2020.
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

43

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Lakeview $201,184 12.5% 12.5%

2 PennyMac $188,011 11.7% 24.2%

3 Wells Fargo $165,162 10.2% 34.4%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $136,467 8.5% 42.9%

5 Nationstar $97,684 5.4% 48.3%

6 Quicken Loans $69,897 4.3% 52.6%

7 Newrez $51,300 3.2% 55.8%

8 US Bank $47,849 3.0% 58.8%

9 Carrington Mortgage $41,999 2.6% 61.4%

10 USAA Federal Savings Bank $38,044 2.4% 63.7%

11 Caliber Home Loans $37,374 2.3% 66.0%

12 Amerihome Mortgage $29,305 1.8% 67.9%

13 Truist Bank $28,544 1.8% 69.6%

14 Navy Federal Credit Union $26,754 1.7% 71.3%

15 Home Point Financial Corporation $23,096 1.4% 72.7%

16 The Money Source $20,358 1.3% 74.0%

17 Shore Financial $19,345 1.2% 75.2%

18 Loan Depot $18,850 1.2% 76.4%

19 JP Morgan Chase $16,724 1.0% 77.4%

20 Midfirst Bank $16,476 1.0% 78.4%

21 Guild Mortgage $16,084 1.0% 79.4%

22 M&T Bank $13,896 0.9% 80.3%

23 Citizens Bank $13,696 0.8% 81.1%

24 PHH Mortgage Corporation $12,891 0.8% 81.9%

25 Planet Home Lending $12,877 0.8% 82.7%

26 Flagstar Bank $12,405 0.8% 83.5%

27 Pingora $9,981 0.6% 84.1%

28 Bank of America $9,036 0.6% 84.7%

29 New American Funding $8,916 0.6% 85.2%

30 PNC Bank $8,743 0.5% 85.8%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of October 2020, over half (52.6 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 

firms collectively own 85.8 percent. Eighteen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 12 are depository 

institutions.
75.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In December 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. In October 2020, Wells Fargo’s holdings of MSRs dipped to $165.2 

billion, below the $201.2 and $188.0 billion held by Lakeview and PennyMac, respectively (both nonbanks). 

Freedom Home Mortgage and Nationstar (both nonbanks) make up the remainder of the top five largest holders 

of MSRs, owning $136 billion and $89 billion respectively as of October 2020. Nonbanks collectively owned 

servicing rights for 75.9 percent of all outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by Ginnie Mae in October 

2020. In December 2013, the nonbank share was much smaller at 27.7 percent.

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

44

$201,184

$188,011

$165,162

$136,467

$88,862

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

1. Lakeview 2. PennyMac

3. Wells Fargo 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

UPB ($ millions) 5. Nationstar

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2012 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

45

Fannie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

While prepayment speeds on all securities have risen since early 2019, the speed increase has been especially 

dramatic in 2020, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly due to a sharp drop in rates. At 

this point, the speeds on GSE securities have largely converged with those on Ginnie II securities, as the former 

have ramped up more quickly in the last few months. The faster Ginnie speeds from 2013-early 2020 reflected 

the growing share of VA loans, which tend to prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA puts 

fewer restrictions on streamlined refinances, and some of the upfront mortgage insurance premium can also be 

applied to the refinanced loan.

35%

30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Nov-11May-12Nov-12May-13Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-18May-19Nov-19May-20Nov-20

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

42%

29%
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul-15 Nov-15Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18Mar-19 Jul-19 Nov-19Mar-20 Jul-20 Nov-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

46

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Speeds on the 2015 3.5s and the 2016 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have been 

increasing since early 2019.; the speed increases have been especially dramatic in 2020 due to a sharp drop in 

rates, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly. The speeds on the 2015-issued Ginnie 3.5s 

have been slightly lower than their conventional counterparts since August 2020, although the speeds on the 

2016-issued Ginnie Mae 3.0s remain very comparable to their conventional counterparts. The faster historical 

speeds on the Ginnie Mae cohorts reflect the fact that 2015 and 2016 Ginnie originations consist of a large 

component of VA loans, which prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. The FHA streamlined programs are 

likely another contributor to the historically faster speeds.

43%

42%

44%

43%

38%
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

47

Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

The charts below show the behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-issued 4.0s, the largest coupon 

cohorts of those vintage years. Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s were prepaying faster than their 

conventional counterparts from late 2017 to March 2020, due primarily to fast VA prepayment speeds. 

Similarly, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s prepaid more slowly than their conventional counterparts until January of 

2019. In 2019, speeds of 2018 4.0s and 2017 3.5s accelerated, and Ginnie II speeds accelerated more than 

their conventional counterparts. However, in early 2020 conventional speeds accelerated more than Ginnie

speeds. Since March 2020, conventional speeds have exceeded those of the Ginnie cohorts; the expanded use 

of GSE appraisal waivers has played a role in this.

49%

48%

43%

52%

51%

49%
Prepayments 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2019 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

48

Fannie 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2020.

The charts below show prepayment speeds by loan age for 2019 and 2020 Ginnie II 3.0s. Prepayment speeds on 

both cohorts jumped at the 8-10 month loan age, a more muted jump than earlier cohorts at the same age; they 

then began to converge with conventional speeds more quickly, as a result of Ginnie Mae actions to curtail the 

“churning” problem. These actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA speeds are especially 

high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling requirements so that if 

loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is ineligible for securitization. 

Ginnie’s latest action on this front became effective for securities issued on or after November 1, 2019. It bars 

the securitization of over 90 percent LTV cash-out refinances into Ginnie I and Ginnie II pools (custom pools 

excepted). In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the lender to show that the 

borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance. The recent experience of these cohorts indicates that, as a 

result of these cumulative actions plus the acceleration of speeds in the conventional market in response to 

lower rates, Ginnie Mae speeds on 2019-issued 3.0s have been running below their conventional counterparts 

14 month loan age onwards. 2020 Ginnie II 3.0s show a similar increase in speeds at the 9-10 month mark, with 

convergence beginning in month eleven.

40.5%

40.4%

40.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2020 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

47.3%

35.4%

35.2%
Reverse and Multifamily Mortgages

$0.88

$3.9

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

$ Billions

Issuance Volume

HMBS Issuance Multifamily MBS Issuance Fe

Fe

$55.4

$128.2

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

J

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

un-19

Apr-19

b-19

Dec-18

Oct-18

Aug-18

Jun-18

Apr-18

b-18

Dec-17

Oct-17

Aug-17

Jun-17

-17 Ap

b

r

7 Fe

c

b-1

6 Dec-1

c 6 Ot-1

-16 Aug

-16 Jun

-16 Ap

b

r

6 Fe

c

b-1

5 Dec-1

c 5 Ot-1

-15 Aug

-15 Jun

-15 Ap

b

r

5 Fe

c

b-1

4

Dec-1

c 4

Oct-1

-1

4 Aug

-1

4 Jun

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

$ Billions

Outstanding Volume

HMBS Oustanding Multifamily MBS Oustanding

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile over the past two years, but has been generally 

declining since early 2018 largely due to the implementation of the new, lower principal limit factors. In October 

issuance grew mildly to $0.88 billion. In October 2020, outstanding reverse mortgage securities totaled $55.4 

billion, up slightly from last month, reflecting a higher volume of new issuances relative to paydowns. After 

falling in September, Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volume in October 2020 grew to $3.9 billion. Outstanding 

multifamily securities totaled $128.2 billion as of the tenth month of 2020.

49
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Updated December 2020.

$292 

$614 

$40 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

50

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

4.08%

3.26%

0.41% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume is $292 billion/day on average for the first ten months of 2020, more robust than in 

the 2014-2019 period, but still below the pre-crisis peak of $345 billion in 2008. Average daily trading volume 

for Treasuries now exceeds the pre-crisis peak. Agency MBS turnover in 2020 YTD (through October) has also 

been higher than the 2014-2019 period; in 2020, average daily MBS turnover was 4.08 percent, above the 2019 

average of 3.67 percent. Note that agency MBS turnover in the first ten months of 2020 has been higher than 

US Treasury turnover, a rare occurrence. Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are down from 

their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover.

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Updated December 2020.
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008Q3 2009Q3 2010Q3 2011Q3 2012Q3 2013Q3 2014Q3 2015Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The “other” category includes primarily life insurance companies, state and 

local govts, households, and nonprofits. Data as of Q3 2020.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (21 

percent), commercial banks (22 percent), foreign investors (12 percent), and money market & pension funds (11 

percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares are a fraction of what they once were. The Federal Reserve’s share 

increased from 15 percent in the first quarter of 2020 to 21 percent in the third quarter due to substantial 

purchases of MBS in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Despite large Federal Reserve purchases, commercial 

banks continue to be the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $2.5 trillion in holdings as of the end of 

October 2020, $1.8 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

51

` Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Oct-19 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Oct 30 Oct 04 Oct 11 Oct 18

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1511.1 1637.9 1636.7 1630.5 1662.0 1716.5 1701.6 1746.3 1770.9 1816.7 1812.5 1823.7

Small Domestic 

Banks 509.4 541.1 543.0 551.8 559.7 570.6 583.6 604.3 605.7 603.1 604.7 612

Foreign Related 

Banks 37 46.1 43.5 43.7 43.2 41.5 39.5 39 39 42.8 41.5 43.9

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 2057.5 2225.1 2223.2 2226.0 2264.9 2328.6 2324.7 2389.6 2415.6 2462.6 2458.7 2479.6

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Small domestic banks includes all domestically chartered commercial banks not 

included in the top 25. Data as of October 2020.

Commercial bank holdings of agency MBS
MBS Ownership

house old

mortgages,

Debt,

h l

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank Of America Corporation $395,969.0 $256,271.0 $127,087.0 $12,327.0 $284.0 17.10

2 Wells Fargo & Company $254,767.0 $181,758.0 $65,210.0 $7,244.0 $555.0 11.00

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $196,629.0 $118,144.0 $62,066.0 $202.0 $16,217.0 8.50

4 Charles Schwab Bank $142,727.0 $78,139.0 $16,680.0 $47,908.0 $0.0 6.20

5 U.S. Bancorp. $98,302.0 $66,924.5 $16,077.8 $15,299.2 $0.5 4.30

6 Citigroup Inc. $81,852.0 $72,727.0 $2,201.0 $5,244.0 $1,680.0 3.50

7 Truist Bank $78,975.0 $31,335.0 $17,222.0 $30,418.0 $0.0 3.40

8 Capital One Financial Corporation $76,011.5 $40,069.0 $10,906.5 $24,390.1 $645.9 3.30

9 Bank Of New York Mellon Corp. $64,932.0 $46,335.0 $3,742.0 $12,843.0 $2,012.0 2.80

10 PNC Bank, National Association $54,529.5 $45,555.4 $5,647.3 $1,724.0 $1,602.7 2.40

11 State Street Bank And Trust Company $47,135.4 $22,085.0 $7,813.0 $14,870.4 $2,367.0 2.00

12 Morgan Stanley $34,185.0 $20,304.0 $5,100.0 $8,781.0 $0.0 1.50

13 USAA Federal Savings Bank $30,027.0 $24,676.1 $2,679.4 $2,671.6 $0.0 1.30

14 TD Bank $27,154.6 $1,772.7 $151.0 $25,134.4 $96.5 1.20

15 HSBC Bank Usa, National Association $26,482.1 $6,951.0 $10,655.6 $8,873.4 $2.2 1.10

16 E*TRADE Bank $25,672.8 $14,338.2 $3861.9 $7,472.6 $0.0 1.10

17 Silicon Valley Bank $24,800.4 $15,257.0 $143.2 $9,400.2 $0.0 1.10

18 Ally Bank $23,949.0 $16,658.0 $1488.0 $2,820.0 $2983.0 1.00

19 BMO Harris Bank National Association $19,964.2 $5,101.8 $533.3 $14329.0 $0.0 0.90

20 KeyBank National Association $19,812.6 $1,126.0 $524.7 $18,162.0 $0.0 0.90

Total Top 20 $1,723,877 $1,065,528 $359,790 $270,114 $28,446 74.60%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2020.

Out of the $2.3 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q3 2020, $1.8 trillion was agency pass-throughs: 

$1.3 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $415 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $500 billion was agency 

CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $46 billion. In Q3 2020, MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for 

the ninth consecutive quarter. The increase was driven by both GSE pass-throughs and agency CMO holdings, with 

the increase in GSE pass-throughs making the larger contribution.

52

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63

2016 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69 

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,385.10 $1,001.61 $383.49 $422.18 $3.06 $34.65

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,445.91 $1,037.93 $407.97 $421.56 $2.90 $36.76

3Q19 $1,975.78 $1,506.92 $1,079.82 $427.10 $428.69 $4.74 $35.44

4Q19 $1,985.38 $1,516.26 $1,089.41 $426.85 $428.99 $4.62 $35.52

1Q20 $2,107.66 $1,621.00 $1,173.36 $448.34 $443.73 $4.65 $37.56

2Q20 $2,195.19 $1,669.93 $1,228.87 $441.06 $478.11 $5.00 $42.14

3Q20 $2,310.42 $1,764.72 $1,349.48 $415.24 $499.50 $4.43 $41.78

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings
Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of August 2020.

15.6%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

Aug-20

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

MBS Ownership

53

$1,132.4

$496.6

$635.9

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2020. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Foreign investors held 15.6 percent of agency MBS in August 2020, up from a low of 12.0 percent in July 2014, 

but down from 17.0 percent in spring 2020. For the month of August 2020, this represents $1.13 trillion in 

Agency MBS, $497 billion held by foreign private institutions and $636 billion held by foreign institutions. This 

represents a $61.2 billion drop in Agency MBS from the peak in spring 2020, all in official holdings.
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of August 2020.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise just under 70 

percent of all foreign holdings. Between June 2019 and August 2020, we estimate that Japan has increased 

their agency MBS holdings by $4.24 billion, Taiwan has decreased their holdings by $1.42 billion and China has 

decreased their holdings by $8.20 billion. All three countries have experienced declines since March.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020 Jul-20 Aug-20

Japan 297,016 311,047 305,332 322,155 310,268 312,967 301,290 14,031 -5,715 16,823 -11,887 2,699 -11,677

Taiwan 265,524 263,018 261,740 269,133 267,918 266,096 264,037 -2,506 -1,278 7,393 -1,215 -1,822 -2,059

China 227,357 233,783 231,753 260,479 239,045 227,007 217,596 6,426 -2,030 28,726 -21,434 -12,038 -9,411

Luxembourg 47,646 46,641 39,015 36,789 42,389 38,099 37,061 -1,005 -7,626 -2,226 5,600 -4,290 -1,038

Ireland 45,829 41,367 38,731 26,131 29,399 28,602 26,864 -4,462 -2,636 -12,600 3,268 -797 -1,738

South Korea 42,879 41,485 40,810 40,964 38,891 39,478 40,008 -1,394 -675 154 -2,073 587 530

Cayman 

Islands 34,967 29,540 31,827 27,154 34,564 34,495 34,514 -5,427 2,287 -4,673 7,410 -69 -6,065

Bermuda 29,365 29,184 33,897 27,790 27,790 29,182 28,430 -181 4,713 -6,107 0 1,392 5,332

Netherlands 14,074 10,549 10,902 10,886 13,255 12,937 10,359 -3,525 353 -16 2,369 -318 -2,578

Malaysia 12,167 15,585 16,600 21,399 20,390 19,375 19,161 3,418 1,015 4,799 -1,009 -1,015 -214

Rest of world 128,142 135,515 152,489 202,143 201,165 235,979 219,970 7,373 16,974 49,654 -978 34,814 -16,009

Total 1,144,971 1,157,714 1,163,096 1,245,023 1,225,074 1,244,217 1,199,290 12,743 5,382 81,927 -19,949 19,143 -44,927

54

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020 Jul-20 Aug-20

Japan 293,662 307,738 302,212 319,241 306,963 309,635 297,905 14,076 -5,526 16,823 -12,278 2,672 -11,730

Taiwan 265,234 262,732 261,470 268,881 267,700 265,876 263,814 -2,502 -1,262 7,393 -1,181 -1,824 -2,062

China 221,738 228,240 226,526 255,596 235,078 223,008 213,534 6,502 -1,714 28,726 -20,518 -12,070 -9,475

Luxembourg 43,978 43,023 35,603 33,602 40,207 35,899 34,826 -955 -7,420 -2,226 6,605 -4,308 -1,073

Ireland 37,674 33,322 31,145 19,045 21,091 20,227 18,356 -4,352 -2,177 -12,600 2,047 -865 -1,871

South Korea 34,969 33,682 33,452 34,091 28,743 29,248 29,615 -1,287 -230 154 -5,347 504 367

Cayman Islands 29,896 24,538 27,110 22,748 28,431 28,312 28,233 -5,358 2,572 -4,673 5,684 -119 -79

Bermuda 26,394 26,253 31,133 25,208 25,111 26,482 25,687 -141 4,880 -6,107 -97 1,370 -795

Netherlands 13,904 10,381 10,744 10,738 12,739 12,417 9,831 -3,523 363 -16 2,001 -322 -2,586

Malaysia 11,881 15,303 16,334 21,150 20,028 19,011 18,791 3,422 1,031 4,799 -1,122 -1,018 -220

Rest of world 97,585 105,371 124,063 175,591 173,716 208,307 191,858 7,786 18,692 49,654 -1,874 34,590 -16,449

Total 1,076,916 1,090,579 1,099,788 1,185,887 1,159,808 1,178,419 1,132,446 13,663 9,209 81,927 -26,079 18,611 -45,973
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Feb-10

Jun-10

Oct-10

Feb-11

Jun-11

Oct-11

Feb-12

Jun-12

Oct-12

Feb-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Oct-19

Feb-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of October 2020.

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

On March 23, 2020, in response to the market dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed 

announced they would purchase Treasuries and agency MBS in an amount necessary to support smooth 

functioning markets. In March the Fed bought $292.2 billion in agency MBS, and April clocked in at $295.1 billion, 

the largest two months of mortgage purchases ever; and well over 100 percent of gross issuance for each of those 

two months. After the market stabilized, the Fed slowed its purchases to around $100 -$104 billion per month in 

May through August. In September and October, Fed purchases were up slightly at $111.3 and $112.9 billion, 

respectively. October Fed purchases totaled 33 percent of monthly issuance. Prior to the COVID-19 intervention, 

the Fed was winding down its MBS portfolio from its 2014 prior peak.
Disclosures:

All the information contained in this document is as of date indicated unless otherwise noted. The 

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All 

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The 

views expressed in this material are the views of the staff of the Urban Institute's Housing Finance Policy 

Center and State Street Global Advisors as of December 21st, 2020 and are subject to change based on 

market and other conditions. The views should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its 

funders. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. 

Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or 

developments may differ materially from those projected.

© 2020 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. 

Tracking Code: 3371673.2.1.GBL.INST

Expiration Date: 12/31/2021