SACRAMENTO METROPOLITAN
AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT DISTRICT

For Agenda of September 24, 2009

To : Board of Directors

Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management Dist rict

From : Larry Greene,

Executive Director/Air Pollution Control Officer

Subject: Adopt a Resolution Approving Amendments to Rule 421 – Mandatory Episodic

Curtailment of Wood and Other Solid Fuel Burning

Recommendations

1. Determine that the amendment of Rule 421 is exem pt from the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA); 2. Decide whether to include one or more of the opt ions in the proposed amendment; and 3. Approve the attached resolution amending Rule 42 1.

Executive Summary

Staff recommends amending the wintertime fireplace and wood stove burning restrictions to help achieve federal health standards and minimize further regulatory burdens on other

industries. The staff recommendation maintains the exemption for EPA certified devices and pellet stoves on some days. The Board may consider several alternatives that provide greater health protections than staff's recommendation, inc luding one alternative that eliminates that exemption. Staff considered extensive public commen ts obtained at five workshops held in July as well as meetings with stakeholders, and recommen ds a modest increase in the number of No Burn days in light of economic concerns expressed b y residents that burn wood for heat.

Rule 421, Mandatory Episodic Curtailment of Wood an d Other Solid Fuel Burning currently contains the following key provisions.

• Prohibits burning wood, pellets, and other solid f uels (e.g. corn) when fine particle pollution (PM2.5) concentrations are forecast to ex ceed the federal health standard during the months of November through February.

• Prohibits burning when PM2.5 concentrations are pr edicted to exceed 35 μg/m3, except burning in EPA certified wood stoves or pellet stov es (called a Stage 1 day.)

• Prohibits all burning when PM2.5 concentrations ar e forecast to exceed 40 μ g/m 3 (called a Stage 2 day.)

• The rule does not apply to natural gas or propane fireplaces and stoves.

• The rule exempts burning that is the sole source o f heat, or in situations when not burning would be a financial hardship to a resident

.

Staff's recommendation would change the thresholds noted above for calling Stage 1 and Stage 2 days to 31 and 35 μg/m3, respectively. This chan ge would add 5 No Burn days on average and each additional Stage 1 No Burn day there would be an estimated 10% improvement in airBoard Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 2

quality, and a 23% improvement on additional Stage 2 days. Staff’s recommendation would have resulted in historically a reduction of 3 days over the health standards on average.

These rule changes are important because:

1. Sacramento does not meet state or federal health standards for fine particle air pollution (PM2.5). 2. Fine particulate pollution is linked to serious adverse health effects, including aggravated asthma, heart attacks, and premature dea th in people with heart or lung

disease. New health studies have increased the con cern about wood smoke health impacts, particularly impacts on children. 3. The largest single source of Sacramento's winter time PM2.5 emissions is wood, pellet and other solid fuel burning in fireplaces, inserts, wood and pellet stoves.

Studies showed that Rule 421 has been very successf ul in improving air quality. The Sonoma Technology, Inc. (STI) study found up to a 23% impr ovement in PM2.5 air quality from Rule 421. Aurora Research Group found that 92% of the r espondents were aware of burning restrictions. Although the public response to the rule and air quality improvements were significant, they are not sufficient to meet the he alth standards. There were 20 unhealthful days during the winter 2008/2009 season.

Other options for modifying the rule that are inclu ded for Board consideration are:

Optional threshold changes (μg/m3)

Current rule Recommended Change Option A Option B

Voluntary threshold 25 25 20 or 25 20

Stage 1 threshold 35 31 Eliminated 25

Stage 2 threshold 40 35 30 30

Changes in Number of No Burn Days

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 1 Stage 2 Single Stage Stage 1 Stage 2

Average # of No Burn days 7 16 5 23 31 13 31

Average additional # of No Burn days – 5 8 21

Average # of voluntary No Burn days 22 17 1 33 @ 20 μg/m3

13 @ 25 μg/m3 20

Contingency Option – Automatically reduce threshold to 20 μg/m 3 if Sacramento does not meet federal health standards by 2014 or 2019 deadlines – Averag e of 64 No Burn days (41 additional No Burn days)

Staff is not recommending Option A, Option B or the Contingency Option.

1 The number of days is lower than the current rule, even though the threshold has not changed, because some of the previous voluntary days would b ecome mandatory No Burn days.Board Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 3

Attachments

The table below identifies the attachments to this memo.

Item Attachment

Board Resolution A

Proposed Rule 421 and Options B

May 2009 Board Letter Attachment A – Aurora Survey Report Attachment B – STI Phase I Report C

Staff Report Appendix A – 40727.2 Matrix Appendix B – List of Changes to Rule Appendix C – Aurora Survey Report Appendix D – STI Phase I Report Appendix E – Emissions Calculations Appendix F – Workshop Notice Comments and Response s Appendix G – ERG Socioeconomic Evaluation D

Comments and Responses from Public Hearing Notice E

STI Transport Analysis F

Evidence of Public Notice G

Background and Health Effects

Particulate matter (PM) is a mixture of very small liquid droplets and solid particles. Adverse health effects are linked to particles that are les s than 10 microns in diameter (PM10), and fine particles that are less than 2.5 microns in diamete r (PM2.5). The District is currently designated

as a nonattainment area for the state and federal 2 health standards for PM10 and for the state health standard for PM2.5. In addition, the Distri ct will be nonattainment for the federal 2006 24-hour PM2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) when formal designations are published later this year.

Wood smoke also contains other air contaminants inc luding volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are precursors to aerosol forms of PM2.5, and toxic and/or cancer-causing substances, such as benzene, formald ehyde and benzo-a-pyrene, a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH). In addition, black car bon is a component of wood smoke.

2 Based on 1998-2000 monitoring data, EPA made a fi nding (February 15, 2002 Federal Register, Volume 67, Number 32, Page 7082 et seq.) that Sacra mento County attained the federal ambient PM10 standard by the applicable December 31, 2000 a ttainment deadline. Note that this EPA finding did not redesignate the Sacramento District to atta inment.Board Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 4

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agen cy (EPA), health studies have linked exposure to particulate matter, especially fine par ticles, to several significant health problems, including:

• increased respiratory symptoms, such as irritation of the airways, coughing, or difficulty breathing;

• decreased lung function;

• aggravated asthma;

• development of chronic bronchitis;

• irregular heartbeat;

• nonfatal heart attacks; and

• premature death in people with heart or lung disea se.

Exposure to particulate matter pollution can cause coughing, wheezing, and decreased lung function even in otherwise healthy children and adu lts. Postmenopausal women, because they are more susceptible to heart and vascular disease, are more susceptible to cardiovascular health impacts from fine particulates. EPA estimat es that thousands of elderly people die prematurely each year from exposure to fine particl es. In addition, a recent study (Dominici et al., 2006) of the correlation between PM2.5 concent rations and hospital admission rates concluded that short-term exposure to PM2.5 increas es the risk of hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) heard the results of several studies 3 that showed smoke from wood fires aggravates lung and heart dis ease and increases the number of hospital admissions. The research results indicate exposure to wood smoke may reduce lung function and reduce the blood’s ability to clot properly. I n addition, wood smoke exposure may also increase substances in the body that lead to cardio vascular and pulmonary inflammation. The studies also found that up to 70 percent of smoke f rom chimneys can re-enter a home or neighboring residences.

The research further found that children are more l ikely to be harmed by PM2.5 and wood smoke than adults because their respiratory systems are still developing, they breather more air per pound of body weight, and they are more active outdoors. Recent studies have concluded that children breathing PM2.5 and wood smoke are li kely to experience:

• more coughing and wheezing,

• reduced lung function if they have asthma 4

,

• permanent reduction in lung air capacity 5

,

• ten percent increased hospital admissions from res piratory problems 6 , and

• decreases in memory function and scores on intelli gence tests 7

.

3 California Air Resources Board, The potential hea lth impacts of residential wood burning, Jan. 2009, http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/health/healthup/Jan0 9.pdf

4 Allen R et al 2008, Changes in lung function and airway inflammation among asthmatic children residing in wood smoke-impacted urban area. Inhal Toxicol. 20(4):423-433

5 Gauderman WJ et al, The Effect of Air Pollution on Lung Development from 10 to 18 Years of Age. N Engl J Med 351;11:1057-1063, Sept 2004

6 Anderson ZJ et al, Ambient particle source apport ionment and daily hospital admissions among children and elderly in Copenhagen. J Expos Sci Environ Epidemiol. 17(7):625-636.

7 Suglia F et al, Association of Black Carbon with Cognition among Children in a Prospective Birth Coh ort Study. American Journal of Epidemiology . 2008:167:280-286Board Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 5

In 2008, CARB updated their studies of mortality ef fects from elevated PM2.5 concentrations. They now estimate that in the Sacramento Metropolit an Area, up to 600 premature deaths would be avoided at an economic benefit of over $3 billion per year if the region met the state

and federal annual PM2.5 standards.

In addition, studies have shown that with less air pollution, people will walk and bicycle more for recreation and transportation 8 . People who live in an area more conducive to wal king have been shown to walk more, weigh less, and have lower blood pressure 9,10 . Rule 421 has the potential to increase walking of residents by decre asing wood burning emissions. Furthermore, the analysis of Rule 421 effectiveness has shown th e largest air quality improvement occurred in the early evening, when people are more likely t o be active or commuting home from work or

school. Staff has received feedback from some memb ers of the public that the reduction in

wood smoke has made it nicer to walk and has reduce d health concerns from breathing wood

smoke.

State and Federal Requirements

The District is currently designated as a nonattain ment area for the state PM10 and PM2.5

standards and the District does not meet federal he alth standards for fine particle air pollution (PM2.5). On December 22, 2008, the EPA Administrat or signed rules designating the

Sacramento area as nonattainment for the federal 24 -hour PM2.5 health standard of 35 μg/m 3

. The designations are under review by the new admini stration and are expected to be published in the coming months. Attainment plans are expected to be due in late 2012 and the attainment deadline will be 2014, but may be extended to 2019 if properly justified to EPA.

The plan must include transportation conformity bud gets and control measures. Transportation conformity budgets will require that future transpo rtation projects stay within the specified emission levels to meet attainment and progress goa ls. Failure to submit a plan can result in withholding of federal transportation project appro vals and funding.

The District's strategy to improve particulate matt er air quality includes a three-pronged approach to reducing emissions from wood burning: p roviding financial incentives, regulating new wood burning installations, and reducing burnin g from existing fireplaces and wood stoves. The District provides financial incentives to remov e or replace existing fireplaces and dirty wood stoves. Rule 417 prohibits installing new fireplac es and dirty wood burning devices. The last prong was the adoption of Rule 421, Mandatory Episo dic Curtailment of Wood and Other Solid Fuel Burning, in 2007. Residents and businesses tha t take advantage of the financial incentives to install gaseous fuel burning devices are exempt from wood burning regulations 11

.

Based on 2006-2008 PM2.5 data, PM2.5 concentrations have increased, likely due to weather influences. It is likely that the current Rule 421 alone will not be enough to attain the federal health standard before the plan is due. Strengthen ing Rule 421 by lowering the thresholds will

8 Pikora T et al, Developing a framework for assessme nt of the environmental determinants of walking and cycling. Social Science & Medicin e. 56 (2003): 1693-1703

9 Frank LD et al, Many Pathways from Land Use to Heal th. Journal of the American Planning

Association. 72 (2006): 75-87

10 Fuzhong L et al, Built environment and changes in b lood pressure in middle aged and older adults.

Preventive medicine . 48(2009)237-241.

11 The District has given away $766,600 to incentiviz e the changeout of 2128 devices. Over 1900 of the devices were fireplaces and 75% of the replacement devices are gaseous fueled.Board Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 6

help to reduce PM2.5 concentrations during winter m onths. These changes combined with state and local measures may be sufficient to meet federal health standards.

The federal Clean Air Act requires attainment plans to include Best Available Control Measures (BACM). If we cannot show we have reached attainme nt with the current version of Rule 421,

then other measures will need to be considered such as controls on agriculture, fugitive dust, and more stringent controls on PM control devices.

Because Sacramento County is designated as a nonatt ainment area for the PM standards, the District was required by state law, Senate Bill (SB ) 656, to adopt a plan for implementing feasible, cost effective measures to attain the sta te and federal PM standards. Rule 421 implemented measures in the SB656 plan. Other wood smoke and other plan measures were postponed pending evaluation of the effectiveness o f Rule 421 in reducing particulate matter concentrations. Without strengthening Rule 421, th e postponed measures, rejected measures,

and measures contained in other district’s control plans are more likely to be needed to meet

state health standards.

May Board Letter Discussion

On May 28, 2009, Staff presented an informational i tem to the Board. Staff presented the

results of two studies that showed that Rule 421 ha s been very successful in improving air quality. The Sonoma Technology, Inc. (STI) study fo und a 10% improvement on a Stage 1 No Burn day and a 23% improvement on a Stage 2 No Burn day in PM2.5 air quality from Rule 421. Aurora Research Group found that 92% of the respond ents were aware of burning restrictions. Staff used the Aurora Survey to determine complianc e rates for Stage 1 and Stage 2 No Burn days.

Some Board members expressed concern that having to o many No Burn days will reduce compliance especially if the change is too drastic. Others expressed a desire to increase public education, emphasize the benefits of changing out o ld devices, and requested staff make a recommendation on the rule options. Finally, at le ast one Board member requested a map of the violations issued last year. This map can be f ound on the following page.

The May Board Letter is included in Attachment C.Board Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 7

Rule 421 Violation MapBoard Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 8

New Information

This section presents results from two new studies were completed after the May Board hearing, both studies suggest that Rule 421 provide s important air quality benefits in Sacramento County. The studies and their results ar e discussed briefly here. They confirm that Rule 421 restrictions in rural areas provide import ant health benefits. In addition, this section discusses new emissions inventory information which is an important consideration regarding whether to maintain the Stage 1 exemption for EPA c ertified and pellet stoves.

Phase II Transport Analysis and Results

During the 2007 adoption of Rule 421, Board members requested a study of the impacts of transported air pollutants, particularly from rural Sacramento County, on peak PM2.5 concentrations and whether it is necessary to inclu de those areas in the Rule 421 program. The language of Rule 421 permits partial County forecas ts, but to-date the no burn forecasts include all Sacramento County residents.

Sonoma Technologies Inc. (STI) recently completed a new study that quantified the relative

contributions of wood smoke from rural Sacramento C ounty and other counties. This study showed that the area responsible for the most signi ficant portion of wood smoke emissions impacting our worst air quality site, near Del Paso Manor Elementary School, is from urban Sacramento County. However, rural Sacramento Coun ty emissions contribute significantly (26 percent) to pollution levels in Elk Grove, which ex ceed health standards.

STI's analysis quantified the contribution of resid ential wood smoke emissions in surrounding areas to primary PM2.5 concentrations at the air mo nitoring stations at Del Paso Manor Elementary School, Elk Grove at Bruceville Road, an d Folsom City Hall. Of these three sites, only the Del Paso Manor monitoring station has a Fe deral Reference Monitor (FRM) used to determine attainment with federal air quality stand ards. The Del Paso Manor monitoring station

exceeds the federal health standards. The Brucevil le and Folsom monitoring stations measure PM2.5 concentrations using Beta Attenuation Monitor s (BAM). Both sites record air quality

concentrations that do no meet the federal health s tandards. STI also evaluated Sacramento County impacts at two locations in neighboring coun ties, Roseville, and Davis.

STI conducted two different analyses, called: Compr ehensive Air Quality Model (MM5/CAMx) and Transported Emissions Assessment Kit (TEAK). B oth models use spatially and temporally resolved meteorological data and wood smoke emissio ns data to estimate daily contributions of primary wood smoke emissions from urban and rural S acramento County and surrounding counties to PM2.5 concentrations at several recepto r sites. Neither model accounted for the nitrogen oxide or volatile organic compound emissio ns from wood smoke that also contribute to PM2.5 pollution problems.

• Comprehensive Air Quality Model (MM5/CAMx) MM5/CAMx modeling used information gathered by the $20 million Central California Air Quality Studies (CCAQS) during December 15, 200 0 through January 9, 2001. This model is a state-of-the-art tool developed by UC Davis and other academic researchers that was used by CARB and the San Joaqu in Valley air district in their 2008 PM2.5 State Implementation Plan. This air qua lity model allowed STI to analyze sub county region impacts and account for w et and dry particle deposition

and turbulent diffusion.Board Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 9

• Transported Emissions Assessment Kit (TEAK) model TEAK modeling traces monitored air quality backward s in time and space to identify

the source and relative contribution from other cou nties. The model was run for 2000/2001 to allow corroboration and comparison wit h the MM5/CAMx model, and

for the 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 CBYB seasons to all ow evaluation of additional, more recent, weather conditions. The key limitatio n of this model is that it does not account for particle deposition or diffusion which both can reduce PM2.5 concentrations. Therefore, the results from the TE AK model are expected to be slightly higher than MM5/CAMx.

The results indicate that primary PM2.5 concentrati ons from wood smoke at monitors within Sacramento County are mostly attributable to wood s moke sources in Sacramento County. STI found that at all three Sacramento County locations , wood smoke from urban Sacramento County is the largest contributor, and No Burn days are an effective way to reduce PM2.5. Urban Sacramento contributes 79% at Del Paso Manor, 26% at Bruceville and 53% at Folsom. In addition, at the Bruceville monitor, the rural p arts of Sacramento County are the second largest contributor (26%) of wood smoke primary PM2 .5 and No Burn days in rural Sacramento County has a substantial effect on reducing PM2.5 a t Bruceville. The study also showed that Sacramento County impacts air quality in adjacent c ounties, 9 to 35% at Davis, and 17 to 54% in Roseville. The study showed that there was almo st no impact from adjacent districts at the Sacramento site monitoring the worst air quality, D el Paso Manor, but a modest to significant impact on the sites closer to county boundaries, Fo lsom and Bruceville. Because neither of these sites are used for federal attainment purpose s, the studies suggest that wood smoke from adjacent counties is unlikely to prevent the Del Pa so Manor station from attaining the standards. However, wood smoke from other counties does impact public health of citizens that reside near county borders.

The Phase II STI report 12 is included in Attachment F.

New Emission Inventory New CARB emission inventory information shows the c ontribution for fireplaces has significantly decreased based on a revised fireplace emission fac tor, percent of fireplaces used, amount of wood used and accounting for supplemental heating o r aesthetic fireplace use.

A common misperception is that EPA certified and pe llet stoves are better for air quality than fireplaces. However, recent CARB emissions inventor y updates show that emissions from EPA certified devices are generally higher than firepla ces because they are used more frequently and for a longer duration to provide heat. Therefo re, to the extent that maintaining the Stage 1 program encourages replacement of fireplaces with E PA certified and pellet stoves, that would not result in an air quality benefit. The District does not provide financial incentives for replacements or retrofits of fireplaces with EPA ce rtified and pellet stoves or inserts.

12 STI conducted analyses for several different emiss ions inventory because of proposed changes discussed in the emissions impacts section below. T he results presented in this Board letter are based on analysis results that used the updated CARB emis sions inventory presented in Appendix B of the Phase II STI report.Board Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 10

Device Type PM2.5 per device per year (lbs/year) Fireplace –

Aesthetic Heating 3

24

Uncertified wood stove Catalytic wood stove Non-Catalytic wood stove 71

47

34

Uncertified wood insert Catalytic wood insert Non-Catalytic wood insert 57

38

27

Pellet stove 6

Summary of Proposed Amendments

Although the public response to the rule and air qu ality improvements were significant, they are

not sufficient to meet the health standards. There were 20 unhealthful air quality days during the winter 2008/2009 season. Therefore, staff is recom mending modest changes to increase the number of no burn days to provide additional health protection. The proposed change in no burn thresholds are based on two new pieces of info rmation, estimated forecast underprediction, and the actual air quality benefits of the Stage 1 no burn days.

Recommended Change - Reduce the Stage 1 threshold from 35μg/m 3 to 31 μg/m 3 to account for the potential underprediction in air quality fo recasts. Reduce the Stage 2 threshold from 40 μg/m 3 to 35 μg/m 3 to account for the actual benefits that occur on S tage 1 No Burn days. The recommended change is expected to result in 5 more No Burn days. On each additional Stage 1 No Burn day there would be an estimated 10% impro vement in air quality, and a 23% improvement on additional Stage 2 days. The recomm ended change would have resulted in historically a reduction of 3 days over the health standards on average.

Of the options considered, the Recommended Change p rovides the smallest increase in the number of No Burn days. The Board may want to consi der increasing the number of No Burn days even more. Staff evaluated the following optio ns.

Option A – Change to a single-stage program, thereby elimin ating the Stage 1 exemption for EPA certified wood stoves and pellet stoves. Set t he No Burn threshold to 30 μg/m 3 and either maintain the voluntary threshold at 25 μg/m 3 or reduce it to 20 μg/m 3 . These thresholds are consistent with the San Joaquin Vall ey APCD program, and are more likely to meet Clean Air Act requirements for reasonably avai lable control measures. Option A is expected to result in 8 more No Burn days.

This was the staff recommendation presented at the public workshops. However, many comments at the workshops expressed concern that el iminating a two-stage program, with its exemption for EPA certified devices and pellet stoves on Stage 1 days, would reduce the incentive for people to switch to cleaner devices a nd also be unfair to those who have already invested in cleaner devices. Note that alt hough, recent information shows that EPA certified and pellet stoves are not beneficial beca use owners of those devices burn moreBoard Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 11

wood, the public perception is that they are cleane r than fireplaces. This is an area where public education regarding this new information may be needed.

Option B - Maintain the Stage 1 exemption but lower the thr eshold more; set the Stage 1 threshold to 25 μg/m 3 and the Stage 2 threshold to 30 μg/m 3 to be consistent with the San Joaquin Valley No Burn threshold. Reduce the volunt ary threshold to 20 μg/m 3 . Option B is expected to result in 21 additional No Burn days.

Contingency Option - Include a provision to automatically change to a single-stage program eliminating the Stage 1 exemption for EPA certified and pellet devices with a reduced threshold of 20 μg/m 3 if Sacramento does not meet the federal health sta ndards by the required deadlines, either 2014 or 2019. Using the past 5 years of data, this would result in up to approximately 41 additional No Burn days. Ho wever, due to uncertainty in the effectiveness of future control measures to improve air quality the actual number of days would likely be lower.

In addition, Staff recommends adopting language tha t clarifies that the intent of the Rule is that first-time violators may complete and pass the smok e awareness course.

Under the staff-recommended option, on each additio nal Stage 1 No Burn day there would be an estimated 10% improvement in air quality, and a 23% improvement on additional Stage 2 days. Based on analysis of the actual forecast and observed PM2.5 concentrations for 2007- 2009 periods, if the proposed thresholds had been i n place, Sacramento County would have had the following additional avoided exceedances pe r year:

• Staff Recommendation – 3 fewer exceedances than th e current rule

• Option A – 4 fewer exceedances than the current ru le

• Option B – 5 fewer exceedances than the current ru le

The number of avoided exceedance days will likely b e higher in the future because, historically, on our very worst days, a 23% air quality improveme nt hasn’t been enough to attain the standards. But as air quality improves, due to emi ssion reductions from other sources, 23% may be enough and the actual number of days avoided will be higher.

Impact on Businesses and Public

Rule 421 applies to anyone who burns wood, pellets or any other solid fuel in open fires or solid fuel burning devices (fireplaces, wood or pellet st oves or inserts), and commercial fireplace

installations in locations such as hotels and resta urants.

Impacts analyzed included: 1) reduced wood and pell et sales by retailers, 2) increased fuel

costs to consumers/businesses if wood retailers rai se prices to maintain revenue, and 3) changes in heating costs from reduced supplemental heat from wood or pellets. Businesses with solid fuel burning devices other than those us ed for cooking would have a cost savings from reduced wood use, because they generally burn wood for aesthetic purposes. An increase in the number of No Burn days will increase the cos t savings. Staff does not have information to quantify the impact, if any, to these businesses du e to the loss of ambience.

The impact on wood retailers is due to reduced wood burning by the public, and therefore, the amount of wood sold by retailers. The estimated va lue of the wood products not purchased

over the entire winter season due to reduced burnin g is $577,781; $1,137,064; $1,620,987; andBoard Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 12

$4,211,867 for the Recommended Change, Option A, Op tion B and the Contingency Option, respectively.

In the socioeconomic analysis for these amendments, Appendix G of the Staff Report (Attachment D), worst case impacts to businesses we re estimated using two different assumptions. The first impact assessment used an as sumption that all of the lost revenue from wood sales due to the additional No Burn days falls upon independent wood dealers and that dealers could not increase prices. In other words, no wood is sold in grocery stores or other retail outlets. This would result in the following potential maximum impacts to revenues and jobs for independent wood dealers:

• Recommended Change: 4.6% loss in revenue, 2.8 jobs lost

• Option A: 8.7% loss in revenue, 5.3 jobs lost

• Option B: 14% loss in revenue, 8.5 jobs lost

• Contingency Option: 34.1% loss in revenue, 20.6 jo bs lost

In the second analysis wood retailers raise prices to maintain income while selling less fuel. The following potential maximum price increase and impacts to consumers may occur:

• Recommended Change: 4.6% price increase, $11-$18 i ncreased cost per household

per season

• Option A: 8.7% price increase, $22-$35 increased c ost per household per season

• Option B: 14% price increase, $35-$56 increased co st per household per season

• Contingency Option: 34.1% price increase, $84-$136 increased cost per household

per season

The costs noted above represent 0.02% to 0.24% of t he Sacramento County 2007 median

income.

The third impact assessment used an assumption that all of the lost revenue falls upon large retail stores. Under this assumption, intended to estimate the maximum impact on retail stores, the percentage loss in revenue is negligible under all of the options and no job losses are expected. Since wood is sold by both independent w ood dealers and retailers, the actual job losses would likely be lower than estimated.

Many of the residents affected by the rule burn woo d for ambiance and would experience cost savings from reduced wood use. For those who use w ood as their primary or supplemental heat source, burning wood only provides a clear cos t savings if wood is obtained without any costs associated with cutting and transporting the wood. For those who purchase their wood,

there will be a shift in costs from wood to an alte rnate source for heat. The data in the table below show that it costs less per unit of heat deli vered to use natural gas than to use wood, and that electric heating is only slightly more expensi ve than burning wood. The average cost of heating a typical home with a certified wood stove for 30 days is $139 and $172 of a pellet stove, while the cost is $153 for electricity and $ 88 for natural gas. Anecdotal information from comments during public workshops suggests that some consumers may have reduced heating costs from using wood or pellets as a supplemental heat source. Reported cost savings may result from personal comfort choices and/or because wood burning may heat main living areas

while other rooms remain cooler than if the home’s alternative heat source were used, resulting

in a net reduction in heat delivered.Board Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 13

District Impacts

Compliance and enforcement will remain the same as the current rule. Approximately 1.2 FTE was required to administer the 10 Stage 1 days and 28 Stage 2 days experienced in the 2008/2009 season. Using a ratio of the options to last season, and keeping in mind that last season was an above average year for the number of No Burn days, the estimated Staff resources for the additional No Burn days for the e nforcement/compliance effort are 0.16 FTE, 0.25 FTE, 0.66 FTE, or 0.82 FTE for the Recommended Change, Option A, Option B, or Contingency respectively, specifically for the foll owing:

1) Surveillance by inspection Staff on the addition al No Burn days for at least 1 hour per day per inspection Staff member (or a total of 8 ho urs on weekends/holidays). 2) Responding to the increase in reported burning o r smoke complaints from the public due to the additional No Burn days. 3) Handling of the increase in Notice of Violations (NOVs) from the additional No Burn days.

Emission Impacts

The California Air Resources Board is responsible f or preparing the wood burning emission inventory for Sacramento County. Wood smoke is the single largest source of directly emitted PM2.5, 49% as reported by CARB’s 2005 California Em ission Forecast System (CEFS) wintertime PM2.5 emissions inventory for Sacramento County. The 2005 emissions inventory is 8.30 tons on an average winter day from wood burnin g in Sacramento County.

The residential wood smoke combustion emissions inv entory is being re-evaluated by CARB in preparation for upcoming federal PM2.5 plans. Seve ral relevant surveys have been conducted since CARB last modified the methodology.

13 Socioeconomic Impact Analysis for SMAQMD Rule 421 Amendments, ERG, 2009

Heating Device Thermal Efficiency Fuel Cost per mmBtu

of Heat Delivered
Fireplace 7% $206.23

Certified Wood Stove 63% $22.91

Pellet Stove 76% $28.29

Propane Fireplace 75% $34.24
Natural Gas Fireplace 75% $14.54

Electric Fireplace >99% $25.23

Gas Central Heat & Air 80% $13.63

Electric Central Heat & Air 100% $25.23
Propane Central Heat & Air 80% $32.10

Note: 1. Used as primary source of heat 2. PG&E rates for natural gas (Winter 2009) 3. SMUD rates for electricity (Winter 2009) 4. Average cost of cord of wood 13 = $269, average cost of pellets 13 = $344/ton, and Cost of propane = $2.31/gallonBoard Memo

Rule 421 September 24, 2009, Page 14

For detailed emission inventory calculations see Ap pendix E, Emissions Calculations, of the Staff Report (Attachment D).

The emissions reductions were calculated using resu lts from the 2009 Aurora Survey of burning behavior during the Rule 421 No Burn program. The table below summarizes the revised CARB methodology estimates the daily average PM2.5 emissions from wood burning in Sacramento County during November – February and th e estimated emission reductions from Stage 1 and Stage 2 days. Detailed calculations an d data sources are presented in Appendix E of the Staff report (Attachment D).

Reductions (tons/day)

Pollutant Nov. – Feb.

Daily Average Emissions (tons/day) Stage 1 Day Stage 2 Day

PM10 11.95 5.17 8.37

PM2.5 11.47 4.97 8.03

NOx 1.39 0.59 0.76

CO 78.5 22.3 54.8

VOC 35.2 18.9 24.6
Note: Each option has the same reduction per No B urn day but the number of No Burn days differs in each option.

Environmental Review and Compliance

Rule 421 was created as part of the response to the requirements of Senate Bill 656 that the District implement cost-effective control measures for particulate matter emissions. Staff finds that the proposed rule is exempt from the Californi a Environmental Quality Act as an action by a regulatory agency for protection of the environment (Class 8 Categorical Exemption, Section 15308 State CEQA Guidelines) and because it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility that the activity in question may have a significant adverse effect on the environment (Section 15061(b) (3), State CEQA Guidelines).

California Public Resources Code (Section 21159) re quires an environmental analysis of the reasonably foreseeable methods of compliance. Staf f anticipates that users of solid fuel burning devices will comply with No Burn day restrictions b y not burning for ambience and, where wood burning provides supplemental heat, by using altern ative sources such as natural gas or electricity. The use of these alternative fuels wi ll result in a decrease in the emissions of particulate matter and other air pollutants, includ ing greenhouse gasses, with a corresponding improvement in air quality and public health.

There has been some debate as to whether the burnin g of wood should be considered “carbon neutral,” because even though carbon dioxide is rel eased from the burning of wood, carbon dioxide was absorbed by the living trees. Burning simply returns that carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, thus the term “neutral.” However, the term “carbon neutral” is something of a misnomer, because other greenhouse gasses, includin g methane and nitrous oxide (much more potent greenhouse gasses than carbon dioxide) and b lack carbon particles (another global warming pollutant), are released when wood is burne d, while only the carbon dioxide is absorbed by living trees. Carbon neutrality, at le ast with respect to carbon dioxide emissions, depends on a number of factors, including whether t he wood has been harvested from aBoard Memo

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sustainable resource. Both BAAQMD 14 and SJVAPCD 15 have found that a large percentage of the firewood being burned comes from nonsustainable activities. In particular, there has been a loss in the acreage of oak woodlands in Northern Ca lifornia, including the foothills on the eastern side of the Central Valley, attributable to urban growth, firewood harvesting, and land clearing for vineyards and developments. Similar a ctivities have been conducted in Sacramento County and the surrounding areas. It may take as l ong as 200 years for young trees to approach the carbon storage capacity of old growth forests.

Based on the foregoing, staff believes wood burning in Sacramento County is not carbon neutral. Nevertheless, Staff has examined the net e ffect on greenhouse gas emissions under two scenarios: 1) the burning of wood is not carbon neutral, and 2) the burning of wood is carbon neutral with respect to carbon dioxide. The analysis also considered greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity due to fuel b urned at electrical power plants. The following table shows the results of this analysis, based on equal heat outputs using natural gas or electricity rather than wood combustion on No Burn days.

GHG Emissions (metric tons/yr CO 2 Equiv.)

Heat Source Recommended Change Option A Option B Contingency Option
Wood 6,249 11,891 19,070 46,557 Wood – Carbon (CO 2 ) neutral 552 1,051 1,686 4,116 Natural Gas 1,270 2,418 3,877 9,466 Electricity – Only CO 2 1,418 2,698 4,326 10,561

As shown in the table, if wood burning is not carbo n neutral, there is a net decrease in greenhouse gas emissions from using natural gas or electricity instead of wood on No Burn days. Even assuming, wood burning is carbon (CO 2 ) neutral, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from using the replacement fuels on No Bu rn days is marginal. Under the Recommended Option, assuming that wood burning is c arbon (CO 2 ) neutral, and wood is replaced by electricity on No Burn days, there is a worst case net increase in greenhouse gas emissions of 866 metric tons per year of CO 2 equivalents, which represents only 0.005% of the greenhouse gas emission inventory for Sacramento Co unty and 0.0002% of the California inventory.

Even in the worst case (Contingency Option, using e lectricity instead of wood), the increase in greenhouse gas emissions represents only 0.04% of t he greenhouse gas emission inventory for Sacramento County and 0.001% of the California inve ntory.

Staff has concluded that no significant environment al impacts will be caused by compliance with the proposed rule.

Cost Effectiveness

The cost effectiveness of the amendments can be cal culated by using the cost (lost sales for wood suppliers) and the emissions reductions discus sed earlier. The Recommended Change

14 BAAQMD, Draft Environmental Impact Report for the Bay Area Air Quality Management District’s Proposed Regulation 6, Rule 3 Wood-Burning Devices , May 2008

15 SJVAPCD, Final Staff Report Proposed Amendments to Rule 4901 , October 2008Board Memo

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cost effectiveness is estimated to be $3.14 per pou nd of PM2.5 for a Stage 1 No Burn day and $5.32 per pound of PM2.5 for a Stage 2 No Burn day. To put these costs into perspective, it is useful to compare the cost effectiveness for other District rules. District Rule 417, Wood Burning Appliances, cost $4.19/lb of PM2.5 in today ’s dollar. It should be noted that most of the District’s existing rules are for controlling ozone precursors, usually VOC or NOx. Rule 421 also

achieves NOx reductions. The cost effectiveness of this rule is $2.80 - $4.86 per pound of NOx
+ PM2.5. The 2005 amendments to District Rule 411, NOx from Boilers, Process Heaters and Steam Generators cost $13.90/lb of NOx. The cost ef fectiveness of the gasoline dispensing regulations (Rule 449, Transfer of Gasoline into Ve hicle Fuel Tanks; 12/17/1991 rule amendments) is at the higher end of the cost effect iveness range, costing $17/lb of VOC in today's dollars. Rule 452, Can Coating (8/21/1990 r ule amendments), is at the low end of the range at a cost of $1/lb of VOC in today's dollars.

Public Outreach

Staff conducted five public workshops throughout Sa cramento County between July 13 th and July 22 nd . Each workshop started with a structured presenta tion of the four options with time available for questions and comments. The workshop s were held in downtown Sacramento, Carmichael, Folsom, Galt and at the District office . The noticing for these public meetings

included:

• Letters to all elected officials in Sacramento Cou nty

• Ad in the Our Region section of the Sacramento Bee

• Notices to newspapers across Sacramento County

• Notices to radio stations across the region

• Letters to homeowner associations

• Notice on the District’s Web site

• Notices by mail and e-mail to the District’s list of parties interested in rule development.

Staff received comments and questions at the worksh ops, through the mail, e-mail and at stakeholder meetings. Comments and responses are l isted in Appendix F of the Staff report (Attachment D). In addition, Staff conducted stake holder meetings with HBPA and various retailers, Sacramento Area Realtors, and Breathe Ca lifornia.

A notice for the September 24, 2009 public hearing was published in the Sacramento Bee, Our Region Section on August 24, 2009. The notice wa s also mailed to attendees of the public workshop, affected sources, and persons who have re quested rulemaking notices.

Public Comments

Staff received over 200 comments on the proposal pr esented at the July workshops. Staff’s responses to these comments are included in the Sta ff report. A large number of comments received at the workshops and via email were on the initial staff recommendation, which was to eliminate the Stage 1 exemption for certified devic es. Many comments were from owners orBoard Memo

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local wood stove retailers of certified or pellet d evices, and the Hearth Patio and Barbeque Association who opposed eliminating the current two -stage program, with its limited exemption for certified and pellet devices on Stage 1 No Burn days. After consideration of these comments, Staff changed the recommendation to maint ain the limited exemption on Stage 1 days for EPA certified and pellet stoves/inserts.

Other comments supported Staff’s workshop Recommend ed Change and supported the more stringent Option B. A few comments, predominantly from hearth product manufacturers or their association, offered an option of having the Distri ct adopt a no visible smoke rule, where visible smoke emissions are prohibited during the entire wi nter season. Additionally, some comments suggested that we work to eliminate burning in all fireplaces.

An option to prohibit visible smoke for the entire winter season would affect all 155,649 fireplaces, 14,310 uncertified wood stoves and 44,1 84 uncertified wood inserts as well as tens of thousands of certified devices which are not cap able (either by design or user operation) of burning without visible smoke on every day, not jus t on the bad air quality days. One manufacturer claims to have a catalytic retrofit de vice that reduces visible smoke from fireplaces. The cost of replacing or retrofitting a ll fireplaces and uncertified wood stoves/inserts is estimated to be up to $400 million or more. In addition, this approach would burden our limited staff resources by requiring enforcement on every day of the wood burning season instead of just No Burn days. Additionally, a tota l ban on wood burning would increase the likelihood of decreasing compliance rates. Therefo re staff does not recommend establishing a comprehensive winter time smoke ban at this time.

A comment from Duraflame received after this public hearing notice was issued suggested 1) eliminating the voluntary curtailment, 2) making th e rule a single stage No Burn program eliminating the limited exemption for EPA certified devices and pellet devices, and 3) setting the No Burn threshold at 35 μg/m 3 . The voluntary curtailment program provides a mec hanism to inform the public that PM2.5 concentrations are ele vated, but not to the extent that a mandatory curtailment is warranted. Many members of the publ ic will choose not to burn as a result of this message resulting in an improvement in air quality. Messaging for the District’s Check Before You Burn program clearly differentiates between vol untary requests and mandatory requirements

A significant number of comments/questions were abo ut how the District and the CBYB program function. The remaining comments were abou t emissions inventory, transport of fine particle pollution from surrounding areas, economic impacts, number of No Burn days, meteorology and other rules and regulations of the District.