Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 5

Global 10-year treasury yields 6

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 7-9

Ginnie Mae yield spreads - Intermediate Credit 10

MBS yield per duration 11

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 12 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 13

National HPI, HPI by state 13-14 

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 15

FHA and VA Outstanding Loan Count Maps 16

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 17

Outstanding Agency MBS 18

Origination volume over time 19

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 20-22 

Purchase versus refi: Refi Issuance Breakdown 23 

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 24-25

FICO score distribution 26

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 27-29

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 30-31

Cumulative Default Rates: FHA and VA 32

High LTV credit box 33-34

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 35-36

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 37-40

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 41-42

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 42

Prepayments 

Aggregate 43

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 44-46

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 47

Multifamily 48

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 49

Dealer net positions, repo volume 50

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 51

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 52

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 53

Foreign ownership of MBS 54-55

Fed Ownership of MBS 56

CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS

The impact of COVID-19 forbearances on delinquencies and loan buyouts.

Four months have elapsed since the COVID-19 economic shock hit the US economy and disrupted 

households and businesses. This prompted Congress to pass the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic 

Security (CARES) Act, which, among other things, gave borrowers of federally- backed mortgages the 

right to receive up to 12 months of payment forbearance, provided they are affected by COVID-19. 

The scale of this program is monumental, making up to 33.4 million loans with an unpaid principal 

balance of $7 trillion eligible for forbearance. 

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, 4.1 million homeowners, about 8.2 percent of all 

borrowers were in forbearance in the first week of July. While that number is high, it slightly below the 

peak level a month ago, when 8.5 percent of all borrowers, or 4.3 million households, were in 

forbearance. The downward trend is apparent for Ginnie Mae loans too, where the share of borrowers 

in forbearance fell from 11.8 percent in the first week of June to 10.5 percent in the first week of July. 

These decreases are the result of two factors: fewer borrowers becoming newly delinquent as the 

economy reopened, and some borrowers exiting forbearance. 

The favorable effect of fewer new delinquencies is that it reduces the supply of loans progressing to 90 

days or more delinquent. Note that forbearance is treated as a delinquency for the pool but not for 

consumer credit reporting purposes. Similarly, many borrowers in forbearance continue to remain 

current. Ginnie issuers have the option to buy delinquent loans from the pool once the borrower has 

missed three payments. To minimize the risk of an issuer strategically buying out loans that they know 

will cure on their own or be brought current by a partial claim, GNMA recently implemented a new 

COVID-19 policy that restricts re-pooling of re-performing loans that were previously in forbearance 

from being securitized into existing Ginnie Mae pool types. Moving forward such loans will be eligible 

collateral only for a new pool type (which has not yet been formally launched) and only after the 

borrower has made six timely monthly payments. 

This policy does not prevent issuers from loan buyout; rather it limits re-pooling eligibility to a new 

pool type, and only after a seasoning period, thus allowing the market to directly determine the value 

of re-performing loans. Because of differences in buyout behavior between depositories and 

nondepositories, it remains to be seen how they will respond to the new policy. Specifically, it is 

uncertain whether depositories will continue their traditional policy of buying out delinquent loans.

As figure 1 shows, the decline in new delinquencies in May and June has reduced the rolling supply of 

30 to 60 day delinquencies. Top panel shows the number of Ginnie Mae loans originated by depository 

issuers that were 30, 60, or 90 days delinquent on the right-hand axis. Left-hand scale shows the D30-

to-D60 and D60-to-D90 roll rates. Bottom panel shows the same data for nondepositories. 

The 30-day delinquency count for depository and nondepository loans increased substantially in April, 

followed by declines in May and June. Note that June D30 count was consistent with pre-COVID 

levels. As loans moved from 30 to 60 days delinquent, we saw a big uptick in the D60 count in May. This 

represented D30-to-D60 roll rates of 71.1 and 63.8 respectively for depositories and nondepositories. 

The D30-to-D60 roll rates were lower in June, reflecting improving forbearing trends, although the 

D60-to-D90 roll rates continued to climb. 
Figure 1: Roll Rates and Delinquency counts for Ginnie Mae Loans

Depositories

Nondepositories

Source: eMBS and Urban Institute

While the shrinking pool of new delinquencies, if sustained, will limit the loans eligible for buyout 

in future months, significant uncertainty remains due to the uptick in COVID-19 cases in certain 

states in June and July among other factors.

Disclosure:

For Ginnie Mae’s Internal Use only. All the information contained in this document is as of date indicated unless otherwise noted. 

The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All information has been 

obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The views expressed in this material are the 

views of Urban Institute and Street Global Advisors as of July 22nd, 2020 and are subject to change based on market and other

conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any 

such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from 

those projected.

© 2020 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. 

Tracking Code: 3172345.1.1.AM.INST

Expiration Date: 07/31/2021

Highlights this month:

• According to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds, total agency MBS outstanding surpassed $7 trillion 

in Q1 2020 for the first time (page 13).

• Median FICO scores for loans originated by nonbanks climbed to 753 in May 2020, up 23 points on the 

year from 730 in January 2020 (page 37).

• The share of agency MBS owned by foreign entities reached an all time high of 17 percent in March 

2020 (Page 54).

HIGHLIGHTS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

D30 (Right) D60 (Right) D90 (Right) Roll Rate D30 to D60 Roll rate D60 to D90

Roll Rate (%) Number of Loans

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20

D30 (Right) D60 (Right) D90 (Right) Roll Rate D30 to D60 Roll rate D60 to D90

Roll Rate (%) Number of Loans
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 27 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index- less 

than either the US Treasury share (37 percent) or the US Credit share (32 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

accounts for 10 percent of the overall index, the largest MBS component, while Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie 

Mac 30-year MBS both comprise 7 of the market. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the remaining 

balance (3 percent) of the Barclays US Aggregate Index. US securities are the single largest contributor to the 

Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 38 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 11 percent of the global

aggregate.

37%

1%

32%

7%

10%

7%

3%

3%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

53%

8%

25%

11%

1%

2%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

5

2%

3% 1%

38%

30%

21%

1%

0.04% 2%

0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Note: Numbers in chart may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of June 2020.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

6

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

After experiencing COVID-19 related volatility in March and April of this year, government bond yields across 

the globe stabilized. In June 2020, the yield on the 10-year treasury grew ever so slightly by less than 1 bp to 

0.66 percent. After widening from the pack in March and April, the Italian 10-year note fell 29 basis point in 

May and 21 basis points in June to yield 1.26 percent. The yield on the UK 10-year bond fell slightly by 1 bp to 

0.17 percent, the Japanese 10-year government bond yield increased by 2 bps to 0.03 percent, and the German 

10-year yield was static at 0.45 percent in June. At the end of June, the hedged yield differential between the 

10-year Treasury and the 10-year JGB stood at 12 bps, an increase of 3 bps since May 2020. The hedged yield 

differential between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year Bund stood at 29 bps, a decline of 3 bps since the 

end of May 2020.

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

7

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Nominal yields fell in June 2020, with GNMA II yields falling 17 bps to 1.17% and GNMA I yields down 4 bps to 

1.49% respectively. At the end of June, current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury 

counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 10-year Treasury yields) by 70 bps on the G2SF and 102 bps on 

the GNSF, a decrease of 17 and 4 bps respectively since last month.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

8

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Japanese Yen, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the JGB 5/10 

blend at the end of June. More precisely, hedged into Japanese yen, the G2SF and GNSF have a 69 and 101 bp

yield versus the JGB 5/10 blend. This represents a 15 and 2 bp tightening for G2SF and GNSF, respectively, since 

the end of May 2020.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

9

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Euros, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the German 5/10 

Blend. The figures below show that at the end of June, the current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into euros 

have a 93 and 125 bp higher yield than the average of the German 5/10, respectively. This represents an 18 bp

decrease for the G2SF and a 6 bp decrease for the GNSF since the end of May 2020.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

10

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Oct-18 Mar-19 Aug-19 Jan-20 Jun-20

U.S. Intermediate Credit - OAS US GNMA 30yr II - OAS

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Spread between Intermediate credit and 30-year GNMA MBS OAS

G2 30 MBS versus Intermediate Credit

After tightening steadily from early 2016 to Jan 2020, the spread between US Intermediate Credit and GNMA II 

30 year OAS skyrocketed in Feb 2020 in response to the COVID-19 panic. This was followed by substantial 

tightening over the period March-June 2020. The OAS on intermediate credit partially recovered from its 

enormous widening early in the year, while the Ginnie Mae II 30-year fell to multi-year lows. Despite this 

tightening, the spread between the two remains much elevated, ending June 2020 at 94 basis points in comparison 

to 21 basis points at the end of Jan, reflecting heightened investor concern about corporate credit risk.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency ofsecurity and unhedged. 

Data as of June 2020.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most government securities with the same or longer durations. 

The only asset class with significantly more yields are the US and Pan-Euro high yield and credit indices. 

Duration, a measure of sensitivity to interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield 

asset classes, as there is a large credit component, which has moved front and center in light of COVID-19.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 5.0 0.29

US 10y 9.6 0.66

GNMA II 3.0% 3.9 1.89

GNMA II 3.5% 3.2 1.23

JPY 5y 4.7 -0.11

JPY 10y 9.7 0.02

GER 5y 4.8 -0.70

GER 10y 10.2 -0.46

ITA 5y 4.8 0.71

ITA 10y 9.5 1.26

US credit 8.2 2.05

US credit >= A 8.0 1.58

US HY 4.2 6.87

Pan-Euro Corp 5.9 1.06

Pan-Euro HY 4.0 5.62

11

US 5y US 10y

G2 3.5%

G2 3.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Source: State Street

*A 2% max r

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.44 0.84 0.80 0.08 0.08 -0.06

3 year 0.31 0.46 0.53 0.18 0.30 0.16

5 year 0.25 0.34 0.49 0.17 0.42 0.25

10 year 0.25 0.28 0.45 0.34 0.56 0.56

* ssumes 2 capitalization ma per issue

*Assumes 2% capitali ati per issuer

Source: State Street

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.35 0.75 0.71 0.14 -0.01 -0.01

3 year 0.18 0.33 0.40 0.24 0.17 0.21

5 year 0.16 0.25 0.39 0.23 0.33 0.31

10 year 0.20 0.24 0.41 0.37 0.51 0.58

zat on max

*A 2% on max 

Source: State Street

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.52 1.54 2.93 2.73 4.02 4.71

3 year 0.66 1.21 1.89 1.62 2.51 2.82

5 year 0.60 1.12 1.61 1.44 2.27 2.40

10 year 0.65 1.05 1.44 1.39 2.02 2.02

* ssumes 2 capitalizatiCor o ma per issuer

12

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Co p

Pan Euro 

Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.67 0.49 0.24 0.05 0.00 0.00

3 year 0.28 0.27 0.21 0.15 0.07 0.08

5 year 0.27 0.22 0.25 0.16 0.14 0.13

10 year 0.32 0.22 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.29

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of June 2020.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade is less than other indices. However, the 

standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least price volatility over a 1, 

3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of risk for the Ginnie Mae index is 

highest among all indices over a 1, 3, 5 and 10-year horizon.
State of the US Housing Market

4.7%

5.4%

4.0%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

May-01

Nov-01

May-02

Nov-02

May-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

May-05

Nov-05

May-06

Nov-06

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

13

Bottom price tier Middle price tier Top price tier

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: Black Knight divides home prices in each region into quintiles; this figure shows the performance of the 

bottom, middle and top quintiles. Data as of May 2020.

0.66%

0.60%

3.29%

1.80%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

3Q062Q071Q084Q083Q092Q101Q114Q113Q122Q131Q144Q143Q152Q161Q174Q173Q182Q191Q20

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q1 2020.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquency rates for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans and VA loans all decreased in Q1 2020; the 

impact of COVID-19 will not be evident until Q2 numbers are released. In Q1, GSE delinquencies remained above 

their 2006-2007 level, while FHA and VA delinquencies (which are higher than their GSE counterparts) are well 

below 2006-2007 levels. The bottom chart shows nationwide house prices for the bottom, middle and the top 

quintiles by price. House prices have risen most at the lower end of the market where Ginnie Mae plays a major role. 

Prices at the lower end of the market rose by 5.4 percent for 12 months ended May 2020, much higher than the 4.0 

percent for the top end of the market. Year-over-year price growth in May was lower than April for all price tiers.
State of the US Housing Market

bt,

ousehold

De

h

mortg

$9,833

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: 

rtgages,

HPI data as of May 2020. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when HPI 

reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to the 

lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 05/2020, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 58.8 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis 

peak valuation on a nominal basis by 18.6 percent. The picture is very different across states, with many states well in 

excess of the prior peak, while Connecticut remains 11.1 percent below peak level.

14

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 75.1% -25.3% 58.8% 3.9% 18.6%

Alabama 36.3% -15.2% 35.7% 5.1% 15.1%

Alaska 69.5% -3.0% 26.1% 2.7% 22.3%

Arizona 110.0% -47.8% 90.6% 6.8% -0.6%

Arkansas 41.5% -9.8% 27.5% 3.2% 15.1%

California 154.9% -43.3% 96.8% 3.7% 11.6%

Colorado 40.3% -12.9% 86.0% 3.6% 62.0%

Connecticut 92.2% -24.7% 18.0% 2.3% -11.1%

Delaware 94.9% -23.5% 34.0% 4.9% 2.5%

District of Columbia 174.7% -13.6% 61.6% 4.0% 39.5%

Florida 128.4% -46.8% 77.8% 5.4% -5.5%

Georgia 38.4% -31.4% 70.4% 4.2% 16.8%

Hawaii 163.0% -22.6% 55.1% 3.8% 20.1%

Idaho 71.8% -28.8% 98.8% 9.6% 41.6%

Illinois 61.6% -34.4% 41.1% 0.7% -7.5%

Indiana 21.5% -7.8% 39.8% 4.5% 28.8%

Iowa 28.2% -4.7% 28.7% 2.2% 22.7%

Kansas 34.6% -9.2% 45.4% 3.4% 32.0%

Kentucky 29.5% -7.6% 35.6% 3.2% 25.3%

Louisiana 48.7% -5.1% 25.8% 2.2% 19.4%

Maine 82.1% -12.3% 43.4% 5.7% 25.7%

Maryland 129.3% -28.6% 30.4% 2.4% -6.9%

Massachusetts 92.4% -22.4% 59.5% 3.5% 23.7%

Michigan 23.8% -39.4% 81.5% 2.6% 10.0%

Minnesota 66.4% -27.8% 60.4% 3.0% 15.9%

Mississippi 41.0% -13.8% 31.8% 4.2% 13.6%

Missouri 42.6% -15.3% 40.4% 3.9% 18.9%

Montana 82.2% -11.3% 56.9% 5.0% 39.3%

Nebraska 26.7% -6.6% 45.6% 3.2% 36.0%

Nevada 127.0% -59.1% 127.2% 3.1% -7.0%

New Hampshire 90.7% -23.1% 45.9% 5.1% 12.2%

New Jersey 117.9% -28.0% 30.4% 3.1% -6.1%

New Mexico 66.8% -16.4% 31.4% 7.1% 9.8%

New York 98.4% -15.2% 44.8% 4.2% 22.8%

North Carolina 40.7% -15.7% 41.5% 4.5% 19.3%

North Dakota 53.3% -3.9% 57.7% 3.2% 51.6%

Ohio 21.1% -18.3% 41.6% 3.9% 15.6%

Oklahoma 37.3% -2.4% 23.7% 4.5% 20.7%

Oregon 81.9% -28.1% 85.6% 4.0% 33.5%

Pennsylvania 70.1% -11.7% 27.9% 2.4% 12.9%

Rhode Island 130.7% -34.2% 59.1% 6.9% 4.7%

South Carolina 44.9% -19.4% 40.3% 4.7% 13.0%

South Dakota 45.3% -4.0% 47.0% 1.2% 41.2%

Tennessee 35.0% -11.8% 50.9% 5.3% 33.0%

Texas 33.5% -5.8% 55.9% 3.7% 46.9%

Utah 54.8% -22.1% 84.2% 6.0% 43.6%

Vermont 83.5% -7.5% 39.0% 6.4% 28.6%

Virginia 99.6% -22.8% 31.5% 3.7% 1.6%

Washington 85.2% -28.7% 97.6% 6.0% 40.8%

West Virginia 42.4% -6.5% 29.0% 4.5% 20.6%

Wisconsin 44.6% -16.3% 39.1% 2.3% 16.4%

Wyoming 77.4% -5.7% 34.7% 5.0% 27.0%
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

sehold

D

hou

mort

$9,833

rtgages,

Agency Issuance (past 1 year)

State GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg.

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000)

Agency Outstanding 

GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg. 

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000)

National 31.8% 2,469,999 246.0 266.7 28.1% 11,532,687 164.7 193.1

Alabama 44.4% 44,334 186.5 208.9 42.6% 240,855 128.9 154.8

Alaska 53.2% 7,017 302.0 270.9 49.7% 38,933 232.1 200.7

Arizona 32.0% 92,666 241.3 247.8 27.2% 320,909 167.0 186.0

Arkansas 42.4% 23,808 160.1 187.5 42.4% 141,298 111.4 140.1

California 25.3% 231,550 386.0 379.0 18.3% 791,564 267.7 275.6

Colorado 31.1% 77,692 324.9 314.0 23.8% 240,107 224.4 234.7

Connecticut 31.5% 19,910 230.6 250.8 28.3% 111,748 181.9 189.4

Delaware 38.1% 10,885 234.3 248.9 34.2% 52,999 179.5 186.9

District of Columbia 17.0% 2,019 465.4 417.8 13.9% 10,030 300.1 309.6

Florida 40.8% 211,111 235.9 233.4 33.4% 861,092 169.0 176.3

Georgia 40.1% 111,801 209.4 238.6 36.1% 525,505 144.6 174.5

Hawaii 44.8% 9,799 542.0 431.7 27.7% 32,335 384.2 321.4

Idaho 30.6% 19,540 242.9 240.1 27.7% 79,556 159.1 176.9

Illinois 23.6% 70,238 196.2 226.8 23.2% 378,321 140.8 162.5

Indiana 34.9% 59,892 163.8 182.7 34.8% 310,670 111.7 129.5

Iowa 23.6% 15,795 165.2 188.3 24.1% 88,186 114.5 133.7

Kansas 33.6% 18,546 174.9 202.4 33.6% 106,792 120.4 141.7

Kentucky 37.6% 33,245 169.4 190.2 36.9% 171,455 121.6 135.7

Louisiana 42.8% 35,378 186.5 215.8 40.4% 192,705 137.6 161.1

Maine 32.8% 8,960 205.5 227.0 30.0% 41,611 152.6 164.6

Maryland 42.8% 67,606 311.1 302.4 36.5% 309,428 230.1 222.2

Massachusetts 21.0% 31,348 323.2 328.0 17.4% 125,970 238.6 235.4

Michigan 22.4% 59,060 167.6 196.7 23.0% 311,385 113.8 138.0

Minnesota 22.3% 35,892 223.1 239.2 21.6% 191,149 157.0 174.9

Mississippi 50.6% 20,849 169.9 192.5 48.8% 118,088 121.2 144.0

Missouri 32.0% 50,754 173.1 199.9 32.7% 269,077 120.9 142.0

Montana 30.2% 7,876 244.0 247.4 26.9% 37,178 170.7 182.4

Nebraska 31.9% 13,079 187.9 193.1 31.0% 74,539 123.5 139.7

Nevada 38.6% 42,744 279.9 261.3 31.0% 144,469 192.4 199.3

New Hampshire 30.1% 10,470 260.3 254.0 26.7% 45,402 194.3 185.6

New Jersey 27.7% 52,097 277.7 301.7 25.2% 253,430 210.0 222.7

New Mexico 42.2% 17,236 203.1 214.3 40.3% 99,776 141.1 155.8

New York 24.2% 49,173 272.3 304.3 23.8% 340,754 187.3 218.8

North Carolina 34.7% 91,200 208.0 235.1 31.3% 438,982 142.2 170.7

North Dakota 26.8% 3,503 231.0 226.2 24.6% 17,155 168.0 168.3

Ohio 32.7% 79,247 163.0 180.3 33.4% 460,005 112.5 129.1

Oklahoma 45.5% 30,794 171.9 191.9 46.1% 199,282 120.0 142.4

Oregon 27.5% 34,479 289.7 289.6 21.0% 128,030 202.6 214.6

Pennsylvania 30.8% 70,436 186.0 221.3 30.6% 424,769 135.9 160.6

Rhode Island 35.3% 8,353 255.4 250.2 31.5% 37,625 190.8 186.8

South Carolina 40.8% 54,264 209.3 221.6 35.2% 233,359 148.3 164.7

South Dakota 33.7% 6,515 199.5 211.1 33.5% 31,441 144.1 154.0

Tennessee 38.6% 63,149 211.6 231.9 36.4% 301,073 140.5 170.1

Texas 35.9% 210,521 224.2 242.1 33.3% 1,109,418 145.2 180.0

Utah 24.6% 35,556 281.2 285.4 23.1% 125,888 195.8 218.8

Vermont 25.9% 2,565 209.5 223.7 20.0% 13,132 164.3 159.9

Virginia 43.5% 98,253 305.5 304.6 38.0% 458,454 219.3 221.0

Washington 29.7% 73,829 328.0 332.7 24.3% 273,774 223.1 239.5

West Virginia 50.1% 10,738 172.3 175.3 44.8% 56,398 126.3 128.6

Wisconsin 20.8% 28,251 189.6 204.4 19.1% 139,218 133.7 144.0

Wyoming 41.0% 5,976 235.0 242.8 37.6% 27,368 177.3 179.9

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of May 2020. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 months, 

from May 2019 to May 2020.`

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 28.1 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 31.8 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 13.9 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 49.7 percent in 

Alaska. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

15
FHA and VA Outstanding Loan Count 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of May 2020.

FHA Outstanding Loan Count by State

VA Outstanding Loan Count by State

Texas , Florida, and California are the top 3 states for FHA and VA lending as measured by the number of loans 

outstanding. As of May 2020, TX has 760,000 million FHA and 310,000 VA loans outstanding, FL had 550,000 FHA 

and 270,000 VA loans outstanding, and CA had 530,000 FHA and 240,000 VA loans outstanding. Virginia ranks 4th

for number of VA loans outstanding and 13th for number of FHA loans outstanding.

16
State of the US Housing Market

$11.2

$20.7

$31.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

17

Debt Household equity Total Value

$0.45

$0.50

$7.00

$3.31

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Home Equity loans Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, eMBS and Urban Institute. Last updated July 2020. 

Note Top: Single family includes 1-4 family mortgages. The home equity number is grossed up from Fed totals to include the value of households and 

the non-financial business sector. Note Bottom: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, credit 

unions and other financial companies. 

The Federal Reserve’s Flow of Fund Report has indicated a gradually increasing total value of the housing market, 

driven primarily by growing home equity since 2012. The Q1 2020 numbers show that while mortgage debt 

outstanding was steady this quarter at $11.2 trillion, total home equity grew slightly from $20.3 trillion in Q4 

2019 to $20.7 trillion in the first quarter of 2020, bringing the total value of the housing market to $31.9 trillion, 

24.8 percent higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Agency MBS account for 62.1 percent of the total mortgage 

debt outstanding, private-label securities make up 4.0 percent, and unsecuritized first liens make up 30.0 percent. 

Home equity loans comprise the remaining 4.4 percent of the total.
State of the US Housing Market

As of May 2020, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $7.09 trillion: 42.5 percent Fannie Mae, 28.1 

percent Freddie Mac, and 29.4 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than Freddie Mac. 

Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA have grown very rapidly since 2009. FHA comprises 57.7 percent 

of total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 37.0 percent.

$3.01

$1.99

$2.08

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

May-02

Nov-02

May-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

May-05

Nov-05

May-06

Nov-06

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

18

$1.2

$0.8

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

May-02

Nov-02

May-03

Nov-03

May-04

Nov-04

May-05

Nov-05

May-06

Nov-06

May-07

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of May 2020.
State of the US Housing Market

$0.32

$0.15

$0.01

$0.19

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume

19

Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

First Lien Origination Share

In the first quarter of 2020, first lien originations totaled $670 billion, up from the Q1 2019 volume of $355 billion. 

The share of portfolio originations was 27.9 percent in Q1 2020, a significant decline from the 37.3 percent share 

in the same period 2019. The Q1 2020 GSE share stands at 47.2 percent, up from 39.6 percent in Q1 2019. The 

FHA/VA share grew to 23.1 percent, compared to 21.0 percent last year. Private-label securitization currently 

tallies 1.94 percent, down from 2.9 percent one year ago, and a fraction of its share in the pre-bubble years.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2020. 

27.9%

1.94%

23.1%

47.2%
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgage ,s

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 $266.9 $225.7 $16.0 $508.6

2020 YTD $130.0 $144.2 $8.3 $282.4

2020 % Change YOY 52.6% 137.8% 65.8% 87.3%

2020 Ann. $312.0 $346.0 $19.8 $677.7

 

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 $597.4 $445.2 $1,042.6 $508.6 $1,551.2

2020 YTD $413.6 $279.2 $692.8 $282.4 $975.1

2020 % Change YOY 146.4% 112.3% 131.4% 87.3% 116.6%

2020 Ann. $992.6 $670.0 $1,662.6 $677.7 $2,340.3

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of May 2020.

Despite the rise in portfolio origination, agency gross issuance was a robust $1.55 trillion in 2019, the strongest 

year for agency gross issuance since 2013. This reflected primarily strong borrower incentives to refinance, 

further buoyed by improved home purchase affordability. And this strong issuance trend continued through the 

first five months of 2020, with gross issuance of $975.1 billion, up 116.6 percent from the same period in 2019. 

Ginnie Mae gross issuance was up by 87.3 percent and GSE gross issuance was up by 131.4 percent. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA was up by 52.6 percent and VA origination was up by 137.8 percent.

20
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgages,

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 $35.9 $58.0 $1.9 $95.7

2020 YTD $0.4 $38.0 $1.9 $40.3

2020 % Change YOY -97.5% 102.2% 470.3% 8.7%

2020 Ann. $1.1 $91.3 $4.5 $96.8

 

21

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $53.5 $11.8 $65.3 $89.6 $154.9

2014 -$4.0 $30.0 $26.0 $61.6 $87.7

2015 $3.5 $65.0 $68.4 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $60.5 $66.8 $127.4 $126.1 $261.6

2017 $83.7 $77.0 $160.7 $132.3 $293.0

2018 $81.9 $67.6 $149.4 $112.0 $261.5

2019 $87.4 $110.3 $197.8 $95.7 $293.5

2020 YTD $102.1 $66.5 $168.5 $40.3 $208.9

2020 % Change YOY 499.8% 81.1% 213.7% 8.7% 130.0%

2020 Ann. $244.9 $159.5 $404.5 $96.8 $501.3

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of May 2020.

2019 was a robust year for net agency issuance, with $293.5 billion of net new supply, 32.6 percent of this Ginnie Mae. This 

trend continued into the fifth month of 2020, with net agency issuance totaling $208.9 billion, up 130.0 percent compared 

with the first five months of 2019. Ginnie Mae net issuance was $40.3 billion, comprising 19.3 percent of total agency net 

issuance. Ginnie Mae net issuance in the first five months of 2020 was comprised of 94.3 percent VA, 1.1 percent FHA and 

4.6 percent other.
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

 

old

ges,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. 

.

househ

All data is as of May 2020.

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates rise, increasing when 

interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the same 

month in previous years. The May 2020 gross agency issuance of $255.7 billion is the highest single month since 

this data has been available, as lower rates gave borrowers a stronger incentive to refinance, contributing to a 

sharp increase.

mortga

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $136.6 $8.5 $10.7 $10.3 $29.5

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $98.1 $2.5 $6.5 $9.4 $18.5

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $95.2 $9.7 $6.2 $9.7 $25.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $97.0 $3.3 $0.4 $11.7 $15.4

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $99.3 $7.7 $2.7 $13.3 $23.8

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $110.7 $7.9 $2.4 $13.3 $23.5

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $113.5 $5.6 $3.5 $12.3 $21.5

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $121.1 $12.0 $6.7 $15.4 $34.1

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $115.5 $7.7 $3.8 $10.6 $22.0

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $115.9 $5.5 $12.5 $11.0 $28.9

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $118.5 $3.9 $13.6 $8.3 $25.8

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $111.5 $9.2 $8.1 $7.0 $24.4

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.1 $0.2 $7.7 $20.0

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.3 $2.2 $7.1 $17.6

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $6.3 $14.1

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.0 $8.8 $16.5

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $5.1 $7.2 $10.5 $22.8

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.5 $6.8 $10.3 $19.6

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $10.4 $18.3

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $15.8 $7.9 $12.5 $36.1

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.9 $6.2 $9.0 $21.1

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $9.7 $7.1 $11.4 $28.2

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $3.6 $11.0 $9.8 $24.4

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $8.2 $22.8

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.9 $2.5 $9.2 $17.6

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.4 $3.4 $4.6 $9.3

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.8 $10.3 $5.6 $17.6

Apr-19 $33.1 $30.8 $32.9 $96.8 $1.3 $10.8 $8.3 $20.4

May-19 $44.5 $34.3 $38.8 $117.6 $6.7 $9.8 $9.4 $26.0

Jun-19 $44.6 $34.0 $43.3 $121.9 $1.9 $5.9 $9.0 $16.8

Jul-19 $51.7 $36.9 $45.9 $134.5 $10.9 $10.1 $11.0 $32.0

Aug-19 $71.1 $50.4 $51.2 $172.6 $20.8 $17.1 $8.7 $46.6

Sep-19 $67.1 $43.0 $52.0 $162.1 $14.1 $7.5 $6.5 $28.0

Oct-19 $65.0 $46.2 $58.4 $169.6 $7.4 $7.1 $11.9 $26.5

Nov-19 $68.1 $50.7 $54.3 $173.1 $5.2 $8.6 $4.1 $18.0

Dec-19 $62.1 $52.5 $52.7 $167.3 $10.1 $17.3 $7.4 $34.7

Jan-20 $61.7 $51.4 $56.0 $169.0 $9.1 $16.5 $8.6 $34.2

Feb-20 $56.5 $39.5 $51.2 $147.2 $9.4 $7.9 $7.1 $24.4

Mar-20 $69.5 $41.1 $53.0 $163.9 $17.9 $6.3 $8.8 $33.0

Apr-20 $101.6 $76.3 $61.4 $239.3 $30.5 $27.5 $10.2 $68.2

May-20 $124.3 $70.6 $60.8 $255.7 $35.2 $8.2 $5.7 $49.1

Monthly Agency Issuance

22
$31.0

$46.2

$13.0 $2.5 $0.2

$7.7

$15.9

$5.6

$1.9 $0.8

$16.4

$15.4

$3.1

$0.5 $0.1 

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Streamlined Cash-out Not streamlined, not cash-out

Coupon

$ billions

Ginnie Mae Refinance Issuance by Type: 2020 YTD

US Agency Market, Originations

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of May 2020.

The FHA refinance share stood at 38.5 percent in May 2020, below the 73.3 percent refi share for GSE originations 

and the 67.7 percent share for the VA. Refinances as a share of all originations grew during most of 2019 as 

interest rates were low. They grew through the first three months of 2020, as rates dropped further, but fell for 

FHA and VA lending in April. They continued to grow in May. The bottom section shows that nearly all of 2020 YTD 

Ginnie Mae refinances, predominantly streamlined, were securitized in lower coupon pools. Cash-out refinances 

are typically securitized in higher coupons, but their volume has fallen sharply in recent months due to restrictions 

Ginnie Mae put in place in late 2019, to combat the “churning” problem.

23

67.7%

38.5%

73.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Percent Refi at Issuance

Refishare GSE FHA VA

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of May 2020.
Credit Box

40.4%

44.9%

71.3%

53.6%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Sep-14 Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17 Jan-18May-18Sep-18 Jan-19May-19Sep-19 Jan-20May-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 71.3 percent in May 2020, down slightly 

from its historical high in May 2019. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of the Ginnie 

Mae purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 44.9 

percent and 40.4 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase originations respectively. The bottom table 

shows that based on mortgages originated in May 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than 

an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a much higher LTV, a similar DTI, 

and pay a slightly higher rate.

24

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 264,786 292,099 264,068 293,400 229,457 287,060 247,167 291,302 

Credit Score 746.6 758.5 745.2 757.5 681.7 704.6 714.2 743.4

LTV (%) 87.5 80.0 88.4 80.0 97.0 96.0 92.5 84.4

DTI (%) 34.1 35.3 34.3 35.7 41.1 42.1 37.6 37.3

Loan Rate (%) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.5

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of May 2020.
Credit Box

80.8%

55.4%

78.7%

71.3%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Sep-14 Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17 Jan-18May-18Sep-18 Jan-19May-19Sep-19 Jan-20May-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Breakdown

 

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020. “Other“ refersto loansinsured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the

Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 78.7 percent of FHA loans, 55.4 percent of VA loans and 80.8 percent of 

other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in May 2020. The bottom table shows that based on 

mortgages originated in May 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat 

buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, higher LTV, similar DTI and pay a higher rate.

25

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 220,368 244,400 279,958 337,193 162,091 175,035 229,457 287,060 

Credit Score 671.4 675.7 702.3 729.7 695.2 700.9 681.7 704.6

LTV (%) 95.6 94.3 99.7 97.0 99.3 99.2 97.0 96.0

DTI (%) 42.6 43.8 39.8 41.4 34.9 35.5 41.1 42.1

Loan Rate (%) 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.4

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Includes only purchase loans. Data as of May 2020.
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2017.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 503 524 587 682 774 813 822 839

26

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 570 615 682 752 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (682) is equal to the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (682).
t,

rtgages,

house

mortg

$9,833

hold

Deb

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 288,811 646 712 738 778 798 729 

Fannie 113,975 693 733 760 791 802 753 

Freddie 68,178 694 727 762 789 802 754 

Ginnie 106,658 624 647 679 727 773 688 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 583,054 685 725 765 790 803 753 

Fannie 321,544 703 736 770 791 804 761 

Freddie 179,404 699 734 769 791 804 759 

Ginnie 82,106 632 663 707 761 792 709 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 871,865 667 712 757 787 802 745 

Fannie 435,519 700 733 767 791 804 759 

Freddie 247,582 697 732 767 791 804 758 

Ginnie 188,764 626 652 690 744 784 697 

 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 106,658 624 647 679 727 773 688 

FHA 62,353 620 640 666 700 740 672 

VA 34,715 633 664 716 768 795 715 

Other 9,590 640 658 691 731 765 696 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 82,106 632 663 707 761 792 709 

FHA 26,568 614 641 668 700 739 671 

VA 54,553 648 686 734 776 798 727 

Other 985 652 673 714 756 782 714 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 188,764 626 652 690 744 784 697 

FHA 88,921 618 640 667 700 739 672 

VA 89,268 641 677 727 774 797 722 

Other 10,575 641 660 693 733 768 698 

May 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of May 2020.

In May 2020, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 690 versus 767 for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Note 

that the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 626 for Ginnie Mae, versus 700 for Fannie Mae and 697 for Freddie 

Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 667, VA loans have a median FICO score 

of 727 and other loans have a median FICO score of 693.

27
May 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

s old

Debt,

hou eh

or

$9,833

m rtgages,

Purchase

Number of Loans

LTV

P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 289,458 74.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 88.1 

Fannie 114,087 66.0 80.0 85.0 95.0 97.0 83.3 

Freddie 68,275 65.0 80.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 82.5 

Ginnie 107,096 94.3 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.7

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 608,234 48.0 60.0 74.0 80.9 93.0 71.1 

Fannie 321,556 46.0 58.0 70.0 79.0 85.0 67.6 

Freddie 179,446 45.0 58.0 70.0 79.0 84.0 67.3 

Ginnie 107,232 71.2 81.4 91.2 97.6 100.0 88.0 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 897,692 52.0 66.0 79.7 92.4 97.0 76.6 

Fannie 435,643 49.0 60.0 75.0 80.0 94.0 71.7 

Freddie 247,721 48.0 61.0 75.0 80.0 94.0 71.5 

Ginnie 214,328 79.0 89.9 96.5 99.0 100.4 92.3 

 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 107,096 94.3 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.7 

FHA 62,698 94.3 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.3 

VA 34,769 93.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.3 98.5 

Other 9,629 95.6 99.2 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.3

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 107,232 71.2 81.4 91.2 97.6 100.0 88.0 

FHA 36,615 75.0 81.4 92.1 97.0 98.2 88.3 

VA 69,576 69.0 81.7 90.5 98.4 100.5 87.7

Other 1,041 82.9 92.3 98.5 100.9 101.8 94.9 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 214,328 79.0 89.9 96.5 99.0 100.4 92.3

FHA 99,313 81.4 93.2 96.5 96.5 97.2 92.7 

VA 104,345 73.8 86.0 96.6 100.0 102.0 91.3 

Other 10,670 94.2 98.8 100.9 101.0 101.1 98.9 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of May 2020.

In May 2020, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae and 75 percent for both Fannie 

Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 100.4 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 94 percent for both Freddie and 

Fannie. Within the Ginnie Mae market,the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 96.6 for VA and 100.9 for other programs.

28
De

mortgages,

hous

rt

$9,833

ehold

bt,

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 289,001 23.2 30.2 38.0 44.7 49.1 37.3 

Fannie 114,081 22.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 47.0 35.0 

Freddie 68,273 21.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 46.0 34.7 

Ginnie 106,647 28.3 34.9 42.0 48.6 53.9 41.4

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 536,305 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 46.0 32.9 

Fannie 321,547 19.0 25.0 33.0 40.0 45.0 32.4 

Freddie 179,442 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.5 

Ginnie 35,316 23.3 31.3 39.4 47.4 53.4 38.8 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 825,306 20.0 27.0 35.0 42.2 47.0 34.4 

Fannie 435,628 20.0 26.0 34.0 41.0 46.0 33.1 

Freddie 247,715 20.0 26.0 34.0 41.0 45.0 33.1 

Ginnie 141,963 27.1 33.9 41.4 48.4 53.8 40.7 

 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 106,647 28.3 34.9 42.0 48.6 53.9 41.4 

FHA 62,669 30.2 36.8 43.8 49.8 54.3 42.8 

VA 34,382 26.5 33.3 41.0 48.0 53.7 40.5 

Other 9,596 25.6 30.7 35.7 40.0 43.0 35.0 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 35,316 23.3 31.3 39.4 47.4 53.4 38.8

FHA 15,979 27.5 34.0 42.2 49.3 54.2 41.2 

VA 18,662 21.4 29.4 36.8 45.4 52.4 37.1 

Other 675 13.5 18.5 27.4 35.9 41.6 27.7 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 141,963 27.1 33.9 41.4 48.4 53.8 40.7 

FHA 78,648 29.6 36.3 43.5 49.7 54.3 42.5 

VA 53,044 24.6 32.0 39.7 47.3 53.3 39.3 

Other 10,271 24.4 30.0 35.4 40.0 42.9 34.5 

May 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of May 2020.

In May 2020, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 41.4 percent, considerably higher than the 34.0 

percent median DTI for both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 53.8 percent, also 

much higher than the 45.0 and 46.0 percent DTI for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively. Within the Ginnie 

Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 43.5 percent, versus 39.7 percent for VA and 35.4 percent for other 

lending programs.

29
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

767

690

757

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Sep-14 Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17 Jan-18May-18Sep-18 Jan-19May-19Sep-19 Jan-20May-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

30

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of May 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in May 2020 was 757, up considerably since the start of 

last year, owing to the refinance wave, which higher FICO borrowers take advantage of with greater 

frequency. In addition, the increases in refinance activity have been much more dramatic at the GSEs than at 

Ginnie Mae, shifting the composition toward higher FICO scores borrowers. Note since early 2019, the median 

FICO scores for Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie borrowers have moved up for both purchase and refinance loans. 

The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrower FICOs is slightly wider for purchase loans than for refi 

loans.
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 75–79.7 

LTVs for the GSEs. Median debt-to-income ratios for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, 

considerably higher than for the GSEs. DTIs increased in the 2017-2018 period for both Ginnie Mae and 

GSE loans, with the movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are very typical in an 

environment of rising interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies witnessed measurable 

declines in DTI, beginning in early 2019, driven by lower interest rates.

31

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of May 2020.

79.7

75.0

34.0

41.4

35.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI
Credit Box: Historical

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951535557596163656769717375777981838587

FHA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

32

DTI<=45, FICO <=660 DTI <=45, FICO>660

DTI>45, FICO <=660 DTI>45, FICO>660

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951535557596163656769717375777981838587

VA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=700 DTI <=45, FICO>700

DTI>45, FICO <=700 DTI>45, FICO>700

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of May 2020.

DTI is a much weaker predictor of performance than FICO score. The top chart shows FHA borrowers with higher 

DTIs do default more than those with lower DTIs, but the differences are modest, as evidenced by the fact that the 

black line is very close to the blue line and the grey line is not that much above the yellow line. By contrast, FICO 

makes a much larger difference, as can be seen by comparing the blue line to the yellow line or the black line to the 

gray line. And low DTI/low FICO borrowers default much less than high DTI/high FICO borrowers, as can be seen 

by comparing the blue line to the gray line. The bottom chart, for VA borrowers illustrates the same point; DTI is a 

much weaker predictor of loan performance than credit score.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of May 2020.
96%

86%

64%

46%

34%

97%

88%

60%

39%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

33

95%

85%

65%

45%

34%

96%

87%

60%

38%

29%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

March 2018- May 2018 March 2020- May 2020

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

98% 93%

80%

61%

48%

99% 98%

85%

67%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In March 2020- May 2020, 

Ginnie Mae accounted for 96 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, compared to 

just 29 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI bucket looks a 

lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In March 2020− May 2020, Ginnie Mae’s share of issuance was higher 

for DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share of loans with a DTI of 

45 and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 85 percent; it was 60 percent for the same FICO in the lower DTI 

buckets. Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear the GSEs have stepped up their higher LTV lending 

for borrowers with FICOs of 680 or higher for DTIs less than 45 (the less than 35 and the 35-45 buckets).
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

March 2018-May2018

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

34

< 35 2.9% 5.0% 2.7% 7.0% 8.6% 26.2%

35 −45 5.5% 9.4% 4.8% 10.9% 9.3% 40.0%

≥ 45 4.8% 9.2% 4.5% 9.2% 6.3% 33.8%

All 13.2% 23.6% 12.0% 27.0% 24.2% 100.0%

March 2020-May 2020

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.7% 4.6% 2.7% 8.3% 11.6% 30.0%

35 −45 4.8% 8.0% 4.6% 12.0% 11.4% 40.8%

≥ 45 4.2% 7.5% 3.7% 7.9% 6.0% 29.2%

All 11.8% 20.2% 11.0% 28.1% 28.9% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

March 2018- May 2018 70.2% 18.7% 35.6%

March 2020- May 2020 68.2% 11.1% 22.3%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 68.2 percent of its issuances in the March 2020- May 2020 period 

having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 11.1 percent for the GSEs. The GSEs have decreased their high-LTV 

lending share from 18.7 percent in March 2018− May 2018. Ginnie Mae’s high-LTV lending is also down, but by 

less than the GSE share, over the same period from 70.2 percent. The share of high-LTV agency loans going to 

highest FICO borrowers (i.e. above 750) has increased from the March 2018-May 2018 period to the March 

2020-May 2020 period, as has the share of lower DTI borrowers (below 35).
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of May 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of May 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie

35

Ginnie

86.2%

69.3%

65.8%

61.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

The nonbank origination share has been rising steadily for all three agencies since 2013. The Ginnie Mae 

nonbank share has been consistently higher than the GSEs, standing at 86.2 percent in May 2020, down from a 

record high of 90.2 percent at the end of 2019. Freddie’s nonbank share fell ever so slightly to 61.9 percent, 

while Fannie’s nonbank fell to 65.8 percent in May (note that these numbers can be volatile on a month-tomonth basis). Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all have higher nonbank origination shares for refi 

activity than for purchase activity. Freddie Mac’s nonbank share is the lowest among the three agencies for both 

purchase and refinance loans.
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of May 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of May 2020.

In May 2020, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share fell slightly to 86.2 percent. The nonbank originator share for FHA 

grew slightly to 91.2 percent in May, compared to 90.5 percent previous month. The nonbank originator share 

for VA was lower than last month at 82.6 percent and the nonbank originator share for other loans, which can 

fluctuate quite a bit month to month, fell to 86.6 percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

36

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

91%

87%

86%

83%
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of May 2020. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of May 2020. 

758

766

753

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

780

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020. 

37

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. FICO scores for loans originated by 

nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, where the differentials between banks and 

non-banks are small, FICO scores for both have increased since early 2014. The sharp rise in bank and non-bank FICOs 

reflects an increase in GSE refinance activity, producing a shift in their business mix toward higher FICO activities. 

Within the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations are measurably higher since early 2014 while nonbank 

FICOs have are up only slightly. This largely reflects the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks.
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

38

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTVs for nonbank and bank originations are comparable, while the median DTI for nonbank loans is higher 

than for bank loans, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in both this and the FICO dimension. Between 

early 2017 and early 2019, there was a substantial increase in DTIs, which has mostly reversed over the subsequent 

months. This is true for both Ginnie Mae and the GSEs, for banks and nonbanks. As interest rates increased, DTIs rose, 

because borrower payments were driven up relative to incomes. With the fall in interest rates in 2019 and 2020, DTIs 

have dropped.
650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of May 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of May 2020.

The median FICO score for Ginnie Mae bank and nonbank originators climbed in May 2020; however bank 

FICOs remain 22 points above non-banks. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent for FHA and 

VA lending.

39

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of May 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of May 2020.
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of May 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of May 2020.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA borrowers experienced notable increases during 2017 and 2018 

for both banks and nonbank originators, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are 

expected in a rising rate environment. After peaking in January 2019, Ginnie DTIs have reverted to 2017 levels, 

as rates have declined.

40

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of May 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of May 2020.
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of May 2020.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

41

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Lakeview $211,874 12.5% 12.5%

2 Wells Fargo $209,247 12.3% 24.8%

3 PennyMac $188,862 11.1% 36.0%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $122,818 7.2% 43.2%

5 Nationstar $97,684 5.4% 48.6%

6 Quicken Loans $65,442 3.9% 52.5%

7 US Bank $56,979 3.4% 55.9%

8 Carrington Mortgage $51,922 3.1% 58.9%

9 Newrez $47,044 2.8% 61.7%

10 USAA Federal Savings Bank $39,106 2.3% 64.0%

11 Truist Bank $34,059 2.0% 66.0%

12 Caliber Home Loans $32,086 1.9% 67.9%

13 Navy Federal Credit Union $29,141 1.7% 69.6%

14 Amerihome Mortgage $26,552 1.6% 71.2%

15 The Money Source $21,322 1.3% 72.4%

16 JP Morgan Chase $20,682 1.2% 73.7%

17 Home Point Financial Corporation $19,762 1.2% 74.8%

18 Midfirst Bank $19,484 1.1% 76.0%

19 M&T Bank $17,381 1.0% 77.0%

20 Roundpoint $16,904 1.0% 78.0%

21 Loan Depot $16,219 1.0% 78.9%

22 Guild Mortgage $16,069 0.9% 79.9%

23 PHH Mortgage $14,155 0.8% 80.7%

24 Citizens Bank $13,558 0.8% 81.5%

25 Flagstar Bank $12,070 0.7% 82.2%

26 Pingora $11,669 0.7% 82.9%

27 Planet Home Lending $11,583 0.7% 83.6%

28 Fifth Third Bank $10,160 0.6% 84.2%

29 Bank of America $10,059 0.6% 84.8%

30 New American $9,932 0.6% 85.4%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of May 2020, over half (52.5 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 firms 

collectively own 85.4 percent. Eighteen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 12 are depository 

institutions.
71.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In December 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. In May 2020, Wells Fargo’s holdings of MSRs fell to $209.2 billion, 

below the $211.9 billion held by Lakeview (a nonbank). PennyMac, Freedom Home Mortgage, and Nationstar (all 

nonbanks) make up the remainder of the top five largest holders of MSRs, owning $189 billion, $123 billion, and 

$92 billion respectively as of May 2020. Nonbanks collectively owned servicing rights for 71.8 percent of all 

outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by Ginnie Mae in May 2020. In December 2013, the nonbank 

share was much smaller at 27.7 percent.

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

42

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$209,247

$188,862

$211,874

$122,818

$92,419

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

May-20

1. Lakeview 2. Wells Fargo

3. PennyMac 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

UPB ($ millions) 5. Nationstar
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

43

Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2020.

While prepayment speeds on all securities have risen since early 2019, the speed increase has been especially 

dramatic in 2020, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly due to a sharp drop in rates. At 

this point, the speeds on Ginnie II securities have largely converged with those on GSE securities. The faster 

Ginnie speeds from 2013-early 2020 reflected the growing share of VA loans, which tend to prepay faster than 

either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA puts fewer restrictions on streamlined refinances, and some of the 

upfront mortgage insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan.

46%

29%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 20

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

42%

41%

39%

38%
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

44

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Speeds on the 2015 3.5s and the 2016 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have been 

increasing since early 2019.; the speed increases have been especially dramatic in 2020 due to a sharp drop in 

rates, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly. The speeds on the 2015-issued Ginnie 3.5s 

have largely converged with their conventional counterparts, although the speeds on the 2016-issued Ginnie 

Mae 3.0s remain faster than their conventional counterparts. The faster historical speeds on the GinnieMae

cohorts reflect the fact that 2015 and 2016 Ginnie originations consist of a large component of VA loans, which 

prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. The FHA streamlined programs are likely another contributor to the 

historically faster speeds.

40%

34%

33%

41%

40%

39%
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

45

Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2020.

The charts below show the behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-issued 4.0s, the largest coupon 

cohorts of those vintage years. Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s were prepaying faster than their 

conventional counterparts from late 2017 to March 2020, due primarily to fast VA prepayment speeds. 

Similarly, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s prepaid more slowly than their conventional counterparts until January of 

2019. In 2019, speeds of 2018 4.0s and 2017 3.5s accelerated, and Ginnie II speeds accelerated more than 

their conventional counterparts. However, in early 2020 conventional speeds accelerated more than Ginnie

speeds. Since March 2020, conventional speeds have exceeded those of the Ginnie cohorts.

46%

45%

41%

56%

55%

49%
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

46

Fannie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of June 2020.

The charts below show the prepayment speeds by loan age for 2017 Ginnie II 4.0s and 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s—the 

cohorts 50 basis points above the largest coupon cohort for those years. Prepayment speeds on the 2017 

Ginnie II 4.0s jumped up sharply at the 7-9 month loan age, reflecting abuse of the VA Streamlined Refi 

program (IRRRL). The 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s do not show increased speeds until the 9-10 month point; reflecting 

both the effect of lower rates and the actions taken by both Ginnie Mae and the VA in H1 2018 to curb this 

abuse. Ginnie Mae actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA prepayment speeds are 

especially high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling 

requirements so that if loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is 

ineligible for securitization. Ginnie’s latest action on this front became effective for securities issued on or 

after Nov 1 2019. It bars the securitization of over 90% LTV cash-out refinances into Ginnie I and Ginnie II 

pools (custom pools excepted). In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the 

lender to show the borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance. The recent experience of these 

cohorts indicates that, as a result of the cumulative actions taken in response to “churning” plus the 

acceleration of speeds in the conventional market in response to lower rates, Ginnie Mae and conventional 

speeds have converged to a degree.

40.2%

36.2%

33.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR

Loan age

39.3%

31.5%

27.1%
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.77

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Mar-20

May-20

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$54.4

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Mar-20

May-20

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile over the past two years, but has been generally 

declining since early 2018 largely due to the implementation of the new, lower principal limit factors. May was 

no exception, with issuance falling to $0.77 billion. In May 2020, outstanding reverse mortgage securities 

totaled $54.4 billion, lower compared to recent past, reflecting a lower volume of new issuances relative to 

paydowns.

47
Multifamily Market

$2.8

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Mar-20

May-20

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$126.0

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Mar-20

May-20

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volume in May 2020 totaled $2.8 billion, a second consecutive increase from the

prior month. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled $126.0 billion as of the fifth month of 2020.

48
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

$292 

$679 

$45 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

49

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

4.30%

4.07%

0.47%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume is $292 billion/day on average for the first five months of 2020, more robust than in 

the 2014-2019 period, but still below the pre-crisis peak of $345 billion in 2008. Average daily trading volume 

for Treasuries now exceed the pre-crisis peak. Agency MBS turnover in 2020 YTD (through May) has also been 

higher than the 2014-2019 period; in 2020, average daily MBS turnover was 4.30 percent, above the 2019 

average of 3.67 percent. Note that agency MBS turnover in the first five months of 2020 has been higher than 

US Treasury turnover, a rare occurrence. Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are down from 

their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover.

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.
Market Conditions

$191.7

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

50

$99.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Dealer net positions are at a post-crisis high; they now exceed their pre-crisis levels. By contrast, dealer gross 

positions have fallen dramatically. The volume of repurchase activity is as low as it has been since 2005. The 

large decline through time reflects banks cutting back on lower margin businesses.
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The “other” category includes primarily life insurance companies, state and 

local govts, households, and nonprofits. Data as of Q1 2020.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (15 

percent), commercial banks (21 percent) and foreign money market funds & pension funds (14 percent). The 

broker/dealer and GSE shares are a fraction of what they once were.

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

51
MBS Ownership

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgages,

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The MBS share of agency debt unexpectedly dropped in Q1 2020 due to a 

higher than usual, $400 billion discrepancy between agency assets and liabilities, as reported by Fed flow of funds. Data as of Q1 2020.

68.5%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Small domestic banks includes all domestically chartered commercial banks not 

included in the top 25. Data as of June 2020.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio post 2008, fewer agency notes and bonds were 

required to fund that activity. As a result, the MBS share of total agency debt increased over time. Commercial 

banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $2.2 trillion in holdings as of the end of June 2020, 

$1.6 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

52

` Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

May-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun 3 Jun 10 Jun 17 Jun 24

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1438.8 1530.9 1511.8 1532.7 1,541.5 1587.7 1624.7 1623.9 1626.8 1625.3 1616.1 1615.6

Small Domestic 

Banks 496.0 521.1 532.0 535.4 538.6 546.3 549.5 549.7 552.1 552.0 558.4 562.6

Foreign Related 

Banks 28.3 38.2 39.5 38.2 39.7 43.4 44.9 42.2 44.3 41.5 42.3 43.3

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1963.1 2090.2 2083.3 2106.3 578.3 2177.4 2219.1 2215.8 2223.2 2218.8 2216.8 2221.5
MBS Ownership

De

$9,833

bt,

household

mortgages,

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $335,750.0 $194,646.0 $130,682.0 $10,091.0 $331.0 15.9%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $266,444.0 $191,354.0 $66,340.0 $7,974.0 $776.0 12.6%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $196,384.0 $121,504.0 $59,194.0 $243.0 $15,443.0 9.3%

4 Charles Schwab Bank $94,398.0 $58,319.0 $17,859.0 $18,220.0 $0.0 4.5%

5 U S. Bancorp. $93,918.2 $54,633.0 $23,047.1 $16,237.6 $0.6 4.5%

6 Citigroup Inc. $82,239.0 $69,418.0 $4,520.0 $6,450.0 $1,851.0 3.9%

7 Truist Bank $72,028.0 $23,559.0 $20,895.0 $27,276.0 $298.0 3.4%

8 Capital One Financial Corporation $65,121.8 $26,905.3 $14,199.2 $23,352.8 $664.5 3.1%

9 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $58,618.0 $37,536.0 $4,620.0 $14,914.0 $1,548.0 2.8%

10 PNC Bank, National Association $54,282.2 $44,217.0 $6,230.8 $2,191.9 $1,642.6 2.6%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $42,531.8 $23,818.0 $9,702.0 $6,809.8 $2,202.0 2.0%

12 Morgan Stanley $29,812.0 $18,305.0 $6,128.0 $5,379.0 $0.0 1.4%

13 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $28,639.7 $6,528.6 $13,382.6 $8,726.3 $2.2 1.4%

14 Ally Bank $24,855.0 $15,601.0 $2,294.0 $4,075.0 $2,885.0 1.2%

15 E*TRADE Bank $24,479.4 $11,640.3 $4,065.9 $8,773.2 $0.0 1.2%

16 TD Bank $22,299.7 $1,794.6 $183.0 $20,060.2 $261.9 1.1%

17 Citizens Bank $22,267.9 $11,694.3 $3,911.9 $6,050.4 $611.3 1.1%

18 KeyBank National Association $19,504.8 $1,307.7 $640.1 $17,556.9 $0.0 0.9%

19 USAA Federal Savings Bank $19,026.0 $16,621.0 $2,278.3 $126.7 $0.0 0.9%

20 Regions Bank $17,168.0 $11,484.0 $3,257.0 $2,426.0 $1.0 0.80%

Total Top 20 $1,569,768 $940,886 $393,430 $206,934 $28,518 73.81%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2020.

Out of the $2.1 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q1 2020, $1.6 trillion was agency pass-throughs: 

$1.2 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $448 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $444 billion was agency 

CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $42 billion. In Q1, 2020, MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for 

the sixth consecutive quarter. The increase was driven by both GSE and Ginnie Mae pass-throughs, with GSEs 

contributing the most.

53

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63

2016 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,385.10 $1,001.61 $383.49 $422.18 $3.06 $34.65

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,445.91 $1,037.93 $407.97 $421.56 $2.90 $36.76

3Q19 $1,975.78 $1,506.92 $1,079.82 $427.10 $428.69 $4.74 $35.44

4Q19 $1,985.38 $1,516.26 $1,089.41 $426.85 $428.99 $4.62 $35.52

1Q20 $2,107.66 $1,621.00 $1,173.36 $448.34 $443.73 $4.65 $37.56

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings
Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of March 2020.

17.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

Dec-18

Mar-19

Jun-19

Sep-19

Dec-19

Mar-20

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

MBS Ownership

$1,185.9

$497.2

$688.7

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

54

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of March 2020. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Foreign investors held 17.0 percent of agency MBS in March 2020, up from a low of 12.0 percent in July 2014. 

For the month of March 2020, this represents $1.19 trillion in Agency MBS, $497 billion held by foreign private 

institutions and $689 billion held by foreign institutions.
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of March 2020.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise over 70 percent 

of all foreign holdings. Between June 2019 and March 2020, we estimate China has increased their agency MBS 

holdings by $33.9 billion, Japan has increased their holdings by $25.6 billion and Taiwan has increased their 

holdings by $0.36 billion.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020

Japan 297,016 311,047 305,332 322,155 14,031 -5,715 16,823

Taiwan 265,524 263,018 261,740 269,133 -2,506 -1,278 7,393

China 227,357 233,783 231,753 260,479 6,426 -2,030 28,726

Luxembourg 47,646 46,641 39,015 36,789 -1,005 -7,626 -2,226

Ireland 45,829 41,367 38,731 26,131 -4,462 -2,636 -12,600

South Korea 42,879 41,485 40,810 40,964 -1,394 -675 154

Cayman Islands 34,967 29,540 31,827 27,154 -5,427 2,287 -4,673

Bermuda 29,365 29,184 33,897 27,790 -181 4,713 -6,107

Netherlands 14,074 10,549 10,902 10,886 -3,525 353 -16

Malaysia 12,167 15,585 16,600 21,399 3,418 1,015 4,799

Rest of world 128,142 135,515 152,489 202,143 7,373 16,974 49,654

Total 1,144,971 1,157,714 1,163,096 1,245,023 12,743 5,382 81,927

55

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020

Japan 293,662 307,738 302,212 319,241 14,076 -5,526 17,029

Taiwan 265,234 262,732 261,470 268,881 -2,502 -1,262 7,411

China 221,738 228,240 226,526 255,596 6,502 -1,714 29,070

Luxembourg 43,978 43,023 35,603 33,602 -955 -7,420 -2,001

Ireland 37,674 33,322 31,145 19,045 -4,352 -2,177 -12,100

South Korea 34,969 33,682 33,452 34,091 -1,287 -230 639

Cayman Islands 29,896 24,538 27,110 22,748 -5,358 2,572 -4,362

Bermuda 26,394 26,253 31,133 25,208 -141 4,880 -5,925

Netherlands 13,904 10,381 10,744 10,738 -3,523 363 -6

Malaysia 11,881 15,303 16,334 21,150 3,422 1,031 4,817

Rest of world 97,585 105,371 124,063 175,591 7,786 18,692 51,527

Total 1,076,916 1,090,579 1,099,788 1,185,887 13,663 9,209 86,099
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of May 2020.

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Nov-13

May-14

Nov-14

May-15

Nov-15

May-16

Nov-16

May-17

Nov-17

May-18

Nov-18

May-19

Nov-19

May-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

On March 23, 2020, in response to the market dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed 

announced they would purchase Treasuries and agency MBS in an amount necessary to support smooth 

functioning markets. In March the Fed bough $292.2 billion in agency MBS, and April clocked in at $295.1 billion, 

the largest two months of mortgage purchases ever; and well over 100 percent of gross issuance for each of those 

two months. Purchases slowed in May to $101.4 billion, 40 percent of monthly issuance, still sizeable from a 

historical perspective. Prior to the COVID-19 intervention, the Fed was winding down its MBS portfolio from its 

2014 prior peak.
Disclosures

All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise noted. The 

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. 

All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not 

guaranteed. The views expressed in this material are the views of the staff of the Urban Institute's 

Housing Finance Policy Center and State Street Global Advisors as of July 28th, 2020 and are 

subject to change based on market and other conditions. The views should not be attributed to the 

Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. 

This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. 

Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual 

results or developments may differ materially from those projected.

© 2020 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. 

Tracking Code: 3180040.1.1.GBL.INST

Expiration Date: 07/31/2021