Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
CONTENTS

Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 4

Global 10-year treasury yields 5

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 6-8

MBS yield per duration 9

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 10 

State of the US housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 11

National HPI 11

HPI by state 12

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 13

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 14

Outstanding Agency MBS 15

Origination volume over time 16

US Agency Market, Originations

Annual Agency Gross Issuance 17

Annual Agency Net Issuance 18

Monthly Agency Issuance 19

Purchase versus refi: Percent Refi at Issuance 20

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 21

First time home buyer share— Ginnie Mae purchase only loans 22

FICO score distribution 23

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 24-26

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 27-29

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 30

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 31-32

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae breakdown (FICO, LTV, DTI) 33-35

Prepayments 

Aggregate 36

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 37-38

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 39

Multifamily 40

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 41

Dealer net positions, repo volume 42

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 43

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 44

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 45

Foreign ownership of MBS 46-47

Fed Ownership of MBS 48
HIGHLIGHTS

The steady growth of the HECM mortgage-backed securities market

Page 40 of this chartbook tracks the monthly volume of HECM mortgage-backed securities (HMBS) issued 

by Ginnie Mae as well as the total outstanding. After bottoming in early 2014, monthly HMBS issuance 

volumes have experienced a moderate and steady increase. For calendar years 2014, 2015, 2016 and 

2017, annual issuance volumes were $6.6, $9.4, $9.2, and $10.5 billion respectively. Some of the increase 

in 2017 volumes was driven by an uptick in endorsements last September, as borrowers rushed to avoid 

changes to HECM premiums that went into effect October 2017. 

As issuance volumes have grown, so has the outstanding – total HMBS outstanding has increased from $47 

billion at the beginning of 2014 to $55.6 billion today. Some of this reflects additional draws on older 

HECMs. This increase in volume has occurred despite significant changes to the HECM program, which 

have strengthened its financial health, since late 2013. These include reductions to the maximum loan 

amount a borrower could be approved for and the proportion of this that can generally be withdrawn in 

the first year (which was reduced from 100 to 60 percent). An additional change was the requirement to 

conduct financial assessment of the borrower ability to pay property taxes and insurance. 

Growth in HMBS volumes is not surprising given the strong increase in nationwide house prices during the 

last several years. As elderly homeowners accumulate more equity, those with limited incomes and 

savings, or those facing high debt burdens, can be expected to extract home equity through reverse 

mortgages to smoothen consumption or pay back debt. In fact, an increasing number of indebted elderly 

homeowners have tapped reverse mortgages to pay off their first mortgage in recent years. And two 

factors bode very positively for future volumes. The first is the aging of the population. In 2010, 

approximately 26 percent of homeowners were 65 and older, this is expected to rise to almost 40 percent 

by 2030. In addition, the number of these elderly homeowners with a first mortgage is steadily increasing. 

The increase in HMBS issuance volumes is also positive for continued development of the capital market 

for reverse mortgages. This market, which began functioning in 2009 and benefits from Ginnie Mae’s 

explicit full-faith and credit guaranty, helps attract capital from investors around the world. Growing 

demand for HMBS helps this market mature further while keeping interest rates low for reverse mortgage 

borrowers. 

Highlights this month:

• US MBS looks less attractive versus both the JGB and Bund in February 2018 (Pages 7-8).

• The total value of the US Housing Market continued to rise in Q4 2017, driven by a $395 billion increase 

in household equity (Page 14).

• Median debt-to-income ratios (DTIs) on new originations moved up for all agencies in January 2018 

(Page 29).

• Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share edged up to a new high, while Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae both moved 

closer towards historic highs in January 2018 (Page 30).

• With the 30-year mortgage rate rising above 4 percent, MBS prepayment speeds continued to be muted 

for all agencies in February 2018 (Pages 37-39).
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of December 2017

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of December 2017

US MBS comprise 28 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index-- slightly less than either the US Treasury share 

(37%) or the US Credit share (31%). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS comprises the largest percent of US MBS (10%), while 

Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie Mac 30-year MBS comprise 8 percent and 6 percent of the market, 

respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the balance (4%) of the US MBS share. US securities 

are the largest single contributor to the Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 39 percent of the global total. US 

MBS comprises 11 percent of the global aggregate. 

37%

2%

31%

8%

10%

6%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

6%

25%

11%

1%

3%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2% 3%

1%

39%

32%

20%

1%

0.04%

2%

1%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of December 2017

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

4
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y Bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of February 2018

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of February 2018

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2018

US Treasury interest rates, as measured by the 10-year note, continue to be the highest in the developed world. The 

US 10-year Treasury note continues to rise, and is at 2.86 percent this month. Interest rates in the UK stayed 

relatively stable at 1.50 percent. Italy, Japan and Germany, however, experienced a slight drop in interest rate and 

currently stand at 1.97, 0.05 and 0.66 percent, respectively. If Treasury notes are hedged into foreign currencies, 

10-year US Treasury yields are 32 basis points (bps) in JPY, and 6 bps in EUR. The hedged yield difference between 

the 10-year Treasuries and JGBs is now 27 bps, while the hedged yield difference between the 10-year Treasuries 

and Bunds widened, currently at -59 bps.

Yield(%)Yield(%)

5
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2018

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2018

The nominal yield spread on current coupon GNMA II and GNMA I securities continued to increase in 

February 2018. Current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury counterparts (relative to the 

average of 5- and 10-year Treasury yields) by 64 and 66 bps on G2SF and GNSF, respectively, representing a 8-

9 basis point widening from January levels.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

6
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2018

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2018

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus many 

sovereign alternatives. The figures show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into Japanese yen 

yield more than the JGB 5/10 blend by 88 and 90 bps, respectively. However, these latest spreads represent 

a sizeable 15-16 basis point narrowing from January levels.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

7
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2018

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of February 2018

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look attractive on a yield basis versus sovereign 

alternatives. The figures show that current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into euros yield more than the 

average of the German 5/10 blend by 26 and 28 bps, respectively. However, these latest spreads represent a 

sizeable 11-12 basis point narrowing from January levels.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

8
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of February 2018.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most securities with the same or longer durations. The only 

security class with significantly more yield is the US high yield index, where interest rate risk does not fully 

capture the volatility of the high yield asset class. Investors are unable to match the yield on Ginnie Mae 

securities, while preserving the full government guarantee, even if they extend their duration significantly.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.6 2.64

US 10y 8.6 2.86

GNMA II 3% 6.8 3.12

GNMA II 3.5% 5.8 3.17

JPY 5y 4.8 -0.11

JPY 10y 9.9 0.05

GER 5y 5.1 0.02

GER 10y 9.6 0.65

ITA 5y 4.3 0.70

ITA 10y 8.8 2.06

US credit 7.2 3.64

US credit >= A 7.4 3.52

US HY 4.0 6.14

Pan-Euro Corp 5.8 1.15

Pan-Euro HY 3.8 3.0

US 5y

US 10y G2 3.0%

G2 3.5%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield per duration

9
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.03 -0.05 0.19 0.04 0.34 0.34

3 year 0.07 0.03 0.20 0.06 0.44 0.31

5 year 0.12 0.08 0.25 0.32 0.45 0.53

10 year 0.28 0.23 0.44 0.39 0.72 0.85

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.12 -0.14 0.09 0.11 0.25 0.40

3 year 0.03 -0.01 0.16 0.12 0.39 0.36

5 year 0.09 0.05 0.23 0.35 0.42 0.56

10 year 0.26 0.21 0.42 0.38 0.69 0.83

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.57 0.71 0.86 0.52 0.63 0.68

3 year 0.53 0.90 1.08 1.03 1.61 1.40

5 year 0.68 0.92 1.18 1.05 1.51 1.28

10 year 0.76 1.19 1.76 1.43 3.01 3.54

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year -0.22 -0.19 0.11 0.21 0.40 0.60

3 year 0.05 -0.01 0.14 0.11 0.24 0.26

5 year 0.13 0.06 0.19 0.33 0.28 0.44

10 year 0.34 0.17 0.24 0.26 0.23 0.24

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of February 2018.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade has been slightly higher than the US Treasury 

index, but lower than many alternatives, including the US Investment-Grade Corporate and US and European 

High Yield indices. However, the standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has 

the least price volatility. The result: the excess return per unit of risk for the mortgage market is the highest of any 

market over the past decade, as measured by the Sharpe Ratio.

10
State of the US Housing Market

6.6%

6.5%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

CoreLogic HPI year-over-year Zillow HPI year-over-year

Sources: CoreLogic, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2017.

1.24%

1.08%

4.78%

2.43%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4Q052Q064Q062Q074Q072Q084Q082Q094Q092Q104Q102Q114Q112Q124Q122Q134Q132Q144Q142Q154Q152Q164Q162Q174Q17

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q4 2017.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquencies for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans, and VA loans edged up in the fourth quarter of 

2017, partly due to seasonal factors, but mostly due to the impact of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. The 

delinquency rates for FHA and VA went up to 4.78 percent and 2.43 percent, respectively, while delinquency 

rates for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac went up to 1.24 and 1.08 percent, respectively. GSE delinquencies remain 

high relative to 2005-2007, while FHA and VA delinquencies (which are higher than their GSE counterparts) are 

at levels lower than 2005-2007. Home price changes turned positive in 2012, and continue to increase 

approximately 6.5 percent per year, as measured by both CoreLogic and Zillow.

11
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: CoreLogic and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of December 2017. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when HPI 

reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to the lowest 

level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 12/2017, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, the nominal home prices have improved by 51.2 percent since the trough, and have exceeded their precrisis peak valuation. However, the picture is very different for different states, with many states well in excess of 

the prior peak, while Nevada is 29.1 percent below peak levels and Florida is 19.7 percent below peak levels.

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Below Peak

National 93.7% -33.2% 51.2% 6.6% -1.0%

Alabama 45.7% -19.9% 23.0% 4.4% 1.6%

Alaska 68.9% -9.4% 17.3% 1.6% -5.9%

Arizona 121.5% -50.5% 69.8% 6.3% 19.0%

Arkansas 39.6% -7.6% 15.5% 3.5% -6.3%

California 149.0% -42.4% 77.9% 8.2% -2.4%

Colorado 40.4% -13.7% 66.6% 8.0% -30.4%

Connecticut 79.5% -24.9% 8.4% 1.9% 22.7%

Delaware 90.3% -23.8% 19.6% 3.5% 9.7%

District of Columbia 150.5% -10.4% 38.3% 2.5% -19.3%

Florida 149.2% -49.6% 65.8% 5.8% 19.7%

Georgia 40.5% -30.7% 53.8% 5.8% -6.1%

Hawaii 152.0% -20.9% 44.8% 3.9% -12.7%

Idaho 85.4% -40.8% 74.7% 10.7% -3.3%

Illinois 59.9% -32.5% 30.7% 3.5% 13.4%

Indiana 24.4% -16.4% 29.6% 5.3% -7.7%

Iowa 25.5% -4.9% 21.2% 3.8% -13.3%

Kansas 33.2% -14.0% 27.3% 3.9% -8.6%

Kentucky 27.0% -8.9% 23.7% 5.6% -11.2%

Louisiana 58.8% -7.5% 25.2% 5.1% -13.7%

Maine 92.2% -19.3% 33.7% 8.1% -7.4%

Maryland 137.7% -31.1% 21.1% 3.6% 19.8%

Massachusetts 81.7% -21.2% 40.2% 6.2% -9.5%

Michigan 26.2% -43.2% 75.7% 7.1% 0.2%

Minnesota 69.7% -28.1% 43.3% 5.7% -2.9%

Mississippi 34.2% -18.3% 20.6% 3.8% 1.5%

Missouri 46.2% -22.3% 31.7% 5.6% -2.3%

Montana 80.0% -16.6% 40.0% 6.2% -14.4%

Nebraska 25.3% -5.3% 27.1% 5.3% -17.0%

Nevada 129.0% -59.9% 93.1% 11.0% 29.1%

New Hampshire 82.6% -23.8% 31.0% 5.8% 0.2%

New Jersey 109.6% -26.4% 16.6% 3.5% 16.5%

New Mexico 64.3% -26.4% 20.5% 3.5% 12.8%

New York 101.9% -13.9% 30.1% 5.3% -10.8%

North Carolina 39.8% -14.6% 28.8% 5.5% -9.1%

North Dakota 50.5% -1.9% 50.4% 5.4% -32.2%

Ohio 22.2% -20.4% 32.5% 6.2% -5.2%

Oklahoma 35.8% -3.1% 15.4% 1.7% -10.5%

Oregon 87.5% -29.3% 67.8% 6.9% -15.7%

Pennsylvania 71.7% -12.9% 16.3% 3.8% -1.3%

Rhode Island 131.0% -34.2% 34.0% 8.2% 13.4%

South Carolina 61.5% -22.2% 34.0% 5.3% -4.1%

South Dakota 37.3% -3.4% 33.5% 4.3% -22.5%

Tennessee 41.3% -13.2% 38.1% 6.6% -16.6%

Texas 39.4% -13.2% 48.8% 5.7% -22.6%

Utah 64.8% -31.7% 65.2% 10.7% -11.4%

Vermont 81.6% -9.1% 14.7% 4.1% -4.0%

Virginia 135.1% -30.6% 29.9% 2.7% 10.9%

Washington 90.2% -28.1% 69.2% 12.0% -17.8%

West Virginia 81.1% -26.9% 24.9% 5.0% 9.5%

Wisconsin 48.6% -17.2% 27.0% 5.9% -4.9%

Wyoming 75.5% -14.5% 27.7% 3.3% -8.4%

12
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State Ginnie Mae Share Ginnie Mae Average

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan 

Size (Thousands)

Ginnie Mae 

Share

Ginnie Mae Average 

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan

Size (Thousands)

National 34.0% 210.6 225.4 32.5% 177.9 208.0

Alabama 45.7% 158.2 178.5 47.3% 141.8 168.5

Alaska 53.2% 278.9 241.3 52.2% 256.0 228.0

Arizona 35.0% 204.1 208.5 34.8% 175.6 190.6

Arkansas 43.8% 140.0 165.2 47.0% 122.5 152.9

California 28.4% 337.6 319.9 22.4% 284.3 291.8

Colorado 33.1% 272.5 261.7 30.6% 227.7 236.3

Connecticut 32.3% 214.0 224.2 30.0% 203.6 218.2

Delaware 39.5% 211.0 219.7 37.6% 198.2 207.8

District of Columbia 17.6% 398.3 352.2 17.6% 325.5 332.7

Florida 39.3% 205.2 200.2 36.8% 172.8 184.4

Georgia 41.6% 179.6 202.2 41.1% 154.4 186.0

Hawaii 39.4% 485.7 372.8 32.0% 417.7 345.1

Idaho 35.2% 189.3 193.2 35.3% 162.3 175.2

Illinois 26.4% 175.5 196.4 25.3% 155.4 183.2

Indiana 39.8% 138.7 153.7 39.8% 121.8 141.5

Iowa 26.6% 143.5 160.9 27.1% 125.2 148.8

Kansas 36.9% 152.7 172.4 37.2% 132.7 157.0

Kentucky 40.9% 146.8 163.8 40.3% 133.0 150.1

Louisiana 43.3% 167.8 189.0 43.9% 150.6 177.2

Maine 36.2% 181.1 195.1 33.2% 166.5 180.7

Maryland 44.7% 279.6 260.3 40.2% 252.3 247.0

Massachusetts 24.1% 285.2 275.3 19.8% 253.0 255.1

Michigan 26.4% 143.0 166.1 26.9% 123.4 151.4

Minnesota 25.9% 193.2 205.1 25.8% 169.9 190.2

Mississippi 50.7% 149.5 167.4 52.7% 132.0 157.8

Missouri 36.6% 149.1 169.3 36.7% 132.5 156.0

Montana 31.8% 209.7 211.6 31.9% 182.6 191.7

Nebraska 31.9% 159.0 167.3 35.7% 135.1 153.6

Nevada 40.2% 230.8 221.4 40.7% 196.1 197.9

New Hampshire 32.5% 226.6 219.4 30.4% 208.6 202.2

New Jersey 30.3% 247.1 261.2 28.4% 232.6 248.7

New Mexico 44.1% 175.5 184.4 44.3% 156.3 172.7

New York 27.0% 240.2 263.2 26.7% 205.0 242.4

North Carolina 35.2% 176.1 197.5 36.2% 154.7 184.3

North Dakota 28.7% 206.6 203.1 27.2% 180.1 185.4

Ohio 36.9% 139.7 154.7 37.9% 125.1 144.1

Oklahoma 47.4% 150.6 167.9 50.3% 131.2 156.8

Oregon 27.8% 245.7 249.5 25.8% 209.3 220.9

Pennsylvania 34.2% 165.9 190.5 34.0% 151.9 180.6

Rhode Island 38.1% 219.9 215.1 34.3% 200.2 203.1

South Carolina 40.4% 179.8 188.9 39.4% 158.0 177.1

South Dakota 37.0% 172.7 181.2 37.2% 154.6 165.0

Tennessee 41.4% 176.4 195.0 43.2% 149.9 177.9

Texas 35.5% 191.4 209.8 38.6% 152.8 191.0

Utah 31.5% 229.3 240.0 32.1% 200.6 218.0

Vermont 23.1% 191.0 193.3 20.1% 181.4 182.3

Virginia 45.3% 269.5 257.0 42.1% 243.0 244.1

Washington 32.2% 272.6 273.3 30.6% 231.9 243.1

West Virginia 48.1% 152.3 153.6 46.1% 138.7 146.6

Wisconsin 23.5% 162.7 173.5 21.8% 146.7 160.9

Wyoming 41.9% 208.6 207.3 41.8% 193.1 195.0

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae share are based on loan balance as of December 2017.

Ginnie Mae loans constitute 32.5 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance, 34.0 percent of the 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstandings (as measured by loan balance) as low as 17.6 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 52.7 

percent in Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

13
State of the US Housing Market

$10.6

$15.2

$25.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt, household mortgages Household equity Total Value

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Data as of Q4 2017.

$0.5

$0.6

$6.4

$3.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Second Liens Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Inside Mortgage Finance, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, and credit unions. Data as of Q4 2017.

The Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report has consistently indicated an increasing total value of the housing 

market driven by growing household equity since 2012, and 2017 Q4 was no different. While total debt and 

mortgages was stable at $10.6 trillion, household equity reached a new high of $15.2 trillion, bringing the total 

value of the housing market to $25.8 trillion, after surpassing the pre-crisis peak last quarter. Agency MBS make 

up 60.1 percent of the total mortgage market, private-label securities make up 4.5 percent, and unsecuritized first 

liens at the GSEs, commercial banks, savings institutions, and credit unions make up 30.1 percent. Second liens 

comprise the remaining 5.4 percent of the total.

14
State of the US Housing Market

As of January 2018, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $6.40 trillion and were 43.8 percent 

Fannie Mae, 27.4 percent Freddie Mac, and 28.9 percent Ginnie Mae. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, VA has been growing very rapidly--comprising 33.0 percent of total 

Ginnie Mae outstandings.

$2.80

$1.75

$1.85

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018

$1.1

$0.6

$0.1

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of January 2018

15
State of the US Housing Market

$0.61

$0.33

$0.01

$0.39

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1-Q3

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2017.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Q1-Q3

First Lien Origination Share

After a record origination year in 2016 ($2.1 trillion), the highest since the great recession, first lien originations 

totaled $1.3 trillion in the first three quarters of 2017. It was down 9 percent from the same period last year, 

mostly due to the elevated interest rates. The share of portfolio originations was 29 percent, down slightly from 30 

percent in 2016. The GSE share stayed at about 45 percent. The FHA/VA share was slightly up: 25 percent for the 

first three quarters of 2017 versus 24 percent in 2016. Origination of private-label securities was well under 1 

percent in both periods.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2017. 

28.8%

0.4%

25.0%

45.4%

16
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total Agency

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $18.3 $15.3 $1.5 $35.2

2018 %Change YOY -21.6% -11.9% -16.7% -17.4%

2018 Ann. $220.0 $184.0 $17.9 $421.9

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 YTD $47.4 $21.4 $68.8 $35.2 $104.0

2018 %Change YOY -14.9% -44.3% -26.9% -17.4% -23.9%

2018 Ann. $568.2 $257.3 $825.5 $421.9 $1,247.4

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of January 2018.

Agency gross issuance totaled $104.0 billion in January 2018, down by 23.9 percent compared to January 2017. 

Ginnie Mae issuance was down by 17.4 percent and GSE gross issuance was down by 26.9 percent. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA is down by 21.6 percent and VA origination is down by 11.9 percent. As a result of higher 

rates, originations continue to stay substantially lower.

17
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $1.2 $6.4 $0.1 $7.8

2018 %Change YOY -51.2% -17.8% 39.8% -25.2%

2018 Ann. $14.6 $77.1 $1.8 $93.5

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total Agency

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $57.5 $11.6 $69.1 $87.9 $157.0

2014 $0.5 $30.0 $30.5 $61.6 $92.1

2015 $10.2 $65.0 $75.1 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $68.6 $66.8 $135.5 $125.3 $260.8

2017 $90.2 $78.2 $168.5 $131.3 $299.7

2018 $12.4 $0.3 $12.8 $7.8 $20.6

2018 %Change YOY 20.6% -97.0% -40.7% -25.2% -35.6%

2018Ann. $149.2 $4.0 $153.2 $93.5 $246.6

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom) 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of January 2018.

Agency net issuance totaled $20.6 billion in January 2018, down 35.6 percent compared to January 2017. Ginnie 

Mae net issuance was $7.8 billion, comprising 37.9 percent of total agency net issuance. Note that Ginnie Mae net 

issuance is down 25 percent compared to January 2017. Ginnie Mae net issuance this month is comprised of 83.0 

percent VA issuance, 15.6 percent FHA issuance and 1.9 percent other issuance.

18
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of January 2018.

Agency gross issuance totaled $104.0 billion in January 2018, down slightly from $111.5 billion of issuance in 

December 2017. Since March 2017, monthly agency gross issuance has been lower than in the same period of the 

previous year, reflecting higher mortgage rates. 

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Jan-14 $28.2 $20.0 $21.6 -$4.9 $0.5 $4.9

Feb-14 $27.9 $17.9 $20.1 -$0.2 $1.2 $5.2

Mar-14 $24.1 $14.7 $16.7 -$2.3 -$0.9 $1.9

Apr-14 $28.0 $18.7 $21.7 -$1.9 $1.2 $5.2

May-14 $27.7 $18.1 $23.9 -$3.7 $0.0 $4.9

Jun-14 $32.1 $20.7 $24.9 -$0.4 $1.8 $4.5

Jul-14 $36.3 $23.2 $27.4 $0.6 $2.6 $5.4

Aug-14 $34.2 $28.4 $30.0 -$2.7 $7.4 $7.9

Sep-14 $39.6 $25.9 $27.0 $4.8 $5.6 $5.2

Oct-14 $39.5 $25.8 $29.9 $4.3 $6.2 $8.4

Nov-14 $32.0 $23.1 $26.4 -$3.0 $2.7 $4.2

Dec-14 $43.3 $21.6 $26.7 $9.9 $1.8 $4.1

Jan-15 $36.8 $22.9 $27.5 -$1.2 $0.8 $2.5

Feb-15 $35.4 $29.9 $23.9 $1.5 $10.1 $2.9

Mar-15 $44.8 $26.0 $30.7 $3.1 $1.1 $0.6

Apr-15 $49.3 $33.8 $40.6 -$1.2 $3.8 $4.3

May-15 $42.4 $33.2 $39.4 -$2.9 $6.6 $5.8

Jun-15 $44.6 $34.4 $40.5 $0.8 $8.3 $9.1

Jul-15 $46.0 $39.2 $45.6 $1.0 $12.3 $13.3

Aug-15 $39.4 $27.6 $43.4 -$2.2 $3.1 $14.9

Sep-15 $45.3 $30.4 $39.4 $7.6 $7.9 $12.7

Oct-15 $41.5 $28.4 $39.2 $4.8 $6.4 $12.4

Nov-15 $28.8 $23.3 $35.8 -$8.1 $1.3 $10.6

Dec-15 $39.7 $22.8 $30.3 $7.1 $3.2 $8.2

Jan-16 $35.6 $22.5 $32.5 -$0.6 $1.0 $7.3

Feb-16 $32.4 $21.2 $30.5 $2.4 $3.1 $8.4

Mar-16 $39.7 $27.5 $32.9 $7.9 $8.2 $9.6

Apr-16 $43.8 $26.2 $40.1 $0.8 -$0.2 $8.8

May-16 $44.2 $29.9 $41.6 $2.4 $4.4 $11.4

Jun-16 $46.7 $30.1 $43.9 $2.7 $3.0 $11.9

Jul-16 $49.8 $35.3 $46.1 $2.3 $6.3 $10.8

Aug-16 $54.9 $37.9 $46.7 $10.4 $11.0 $13.8

Sep-16 $65.8 $44.0 $52.5 $8.7 $9.0 $12.5

Oct-16 $66.0 $35.9 $47.4 $11.8 $2.7 $9.3

Nov-16 $48.8 $40.2 $47.2 -$3.5 $7.9 $10.3

Dec-16 $72.7 $40.5 $46.8 $23.3 $10.4 $10.8

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $10.3 $10.7 $10.3

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $3.1 $6.5 $9.2

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $10.3 $6.2 $9.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $4.8 $0.4 $11.7

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $7.6 $2.7 $13.1

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $8.3 $2.4 $13.2

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $5.8 $3.5 $12.1

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $12.0 $6.7 $15.6

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $7.4 $3.8 $10.5

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $6.4 $12.5 $10.7

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $4.6 $13.6 $8.2

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $9.6 $8.2 $6.8

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $12.4 $0.3 $7.8

Monthly Agency Issuance

19
US Agency Market, Originations

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Mortgage Rate

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance

Freddie Mac (left) Fannie Mae (left) Ginnie Mae (left) Mortgage rate (right)

28.4%

44.7%

4.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of January 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. Data as of January 2018.

The Ginnie Mae refi share stood at 32 percent in January 2018, below the 49 and 40 percent shares for Fannie Mae 

and Freddie Mac, respectively. Within Ginnie Mae, VA had the highest refi share at 45 percent in January 2018, 

followed by FHA’s 28 percent refi share. 

20
Credit Box

36.7%

43.1%

70.5%

52.8%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

First time homebuyers are important to the Ginnie Mae market, comprising 71 percent of purchase originations, 

compared to Fannie and Freddie’s respective 43 percent and 37 percent share of the first-time homebuyer 

market. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated in January 2018, the average first-time 

homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan and have a lower credit score, 

a much higher LTV and a similar DTI, thus paying a higher interest rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 230.9 258.2 234.3 253.3 205.1 248.9 217.5 254.0 

Credit Score 735.8 753.2 740.1 753.8 681.0 701.5 706.9 737.5

LTV (%) 87.5 78.8 86.5 79.5 96.8 95.7 92.4 84.1

DTI (%) 36.3 36.5 35.1 35.9 41.3 42.2 38.8 38.1

Loan Rate (%) 4.24 3.94 4.16 4.07 4.20 4.05 4.20 4.01

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of January 2018.

21
Credit Box

76.9%

54.0%

79.6%

70.5%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Purchase Only Loans Breakdown by Source

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and 

the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 77 percent of FHA loans, 54 percent of VA loans and 80 percent of other 

loans represent financing for first time home buyers. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated 

in January 2018, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a 

smaller loan and have a lower credit score, and similar LTVs and DTIs, thus paying a higher interest rate.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 203.3 221.1 241.0 292.2 143.0 156.6 205.1 248.9 

Credit Score 673.0 678.8 697.8 725.9 696.2 700.2 681.0 701.5

LTV (%) 95.5 94.1 99.8 96.8 99.2 99.5 96.8 95.7

DTI (%) 42.6 43.5 40.4 41.6 35.1 35.8 41.3 42.2

Loan Rate (%) 4.27 4.19 4.03 3.90 4.08 4.12 4.20 4.05

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

22
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2016.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 502 524 583 676 772 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

308 569 613 680 751 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (676) is lower than the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (680).

23
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 248,390 643 679 728 774 797 723 

Fannie 94,569 680 714 755 786 801 747 

Freddie 53,556 687 719 758 787 802 750 

Ginnie 100,265 624 647 680 724 769 687 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 165,103 644 680 724 770 795 721 

Fannie 82,419 661 696 739 777 798 734 

Freddie 39,580 667 701 742 778 799 736 

Ginnie 43,104 613 644 679 721 765 682 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 413,493 643 679 726 772 796 722 

Fannie 176,988 670 705 748 782 800 741 

Freddie 93,136 679 710 751 784 801 744 

Ginnie 143,369 622 646 679 723 768 686 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 100,265 624 647 680 724 769 687 

FHA 61,641 620 641 668 704 742 674 

VA 28,998 632 663 709 762 792 711 

Other 9,626 642 660 694 731 766 697 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 43,104 613 644 679 721 765 682 

FHA 22,060 602 633 664 698 737 666 

VA 20,747 628 660 698 744 780 700 

Other 297 604 651 695 740 763 688 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 143,369 622 646 679 723 768 686 

FHA 83,701 615 640 667 702 741 672 

VA 49,745 631 661 703 755 788 706 

Other 9,923 641 660 694 731 766 697 

January 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of January 2018.

In January 2018, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 679 versus 748 for Fannie and 751 for Freddie. Note that 

the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 622 for Ginnie Mae, versus 670 for Fannie and 679 for Freddie. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 667, VA loans have a median FICO score of 703 and 

other loans have a median FICO score of 694.

24
January 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 248,612 72.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 87.7 

Fannie 94,551 63.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 97.0 82.1 

Freddie 53,617 63.0 77.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 81.3 

Ginnie 100,444 92.9 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.5 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 167,871 46.0 61.0 75.0 83.4 94.9 71.9 

Fannie 82,428 43.0 57.0 70.0 79.0 80.0 66.1 

Freddie 39,588 42.0 57.0 71.0 79.0 80.0 66.5 

Ginnie 45,855 69.5 81.9 86.7 97.8 100.0 86.7 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 416,483 56.0 74.0 83.3 96.5 98.6 81.3 

Fannie 176,979 50.0 66.0 80.0 89.0 95.0 74.7 

Freddie 93,205 50.0 67.0 80.0 87.0 95.0 75.0 

Ginnie 146,299 81.9 91.4 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.4 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 100,444 92.9 96.5 96.5 100.0 102.0 96.5 

FHA 61,752 93.0 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.1 

VA 29,037 91.1 100.0 100.0 102.2 103.3 98.4 

Other 9,655 95.1 99.1 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.3 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 45,855 69.5 81.9 86.7 97.8 100.0 86.7 

FHA 22,756 68.8 80.5 86.5 89.6 98.1 83.7 

VA 22,704 70.2 84.0 93.6 100.0 102.2 89.7 

Other 395 77.0 87.3 97.1 101.7 103.2 92.2 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 146,299 81.9 91.4 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.4 

FHA 84,508 82.3 89.9 96.5 96.5 96.5 92.1 

VA 51,741 79.7 91.2 100.0 100.4 102.9 94.6 

Other 10,050 94.4 98.9 101.0 101.0 101.3 99.0 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of January 2018.

In January 2018, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 80 percent for Fannie 

Mae and Freddie Mac. The 10th percentile was 81.9 percent for Ginnie Mae and 50 percent for the GSEs. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 100.0 for VA and 101.0 for other programs. 

25
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 248,196 24.0 31.6 39.3 45.4 50.0 38.2 

Fannie 94,664 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 48.0 36.2 

Freddie 53,613 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.4 

Ginnie 99,919 28.7 35.3 42.3 48.8 53.9 41.6 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 153,253 23.0 30.0 38.0 45.0 49.0 36.9 

Fannie 81,365 22.0 29.0 37.0 44.0 48.0 36.1 

Freddie 38,876 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.4 

Ginnie 33,012 26.0 33.4 41.5 48.2 53.2 40.4 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 401,449 24.0 31.0 39.0 45.0 49.2 37.7 

Fannie 176,029 22.0 29.0 38.0 44.0 48.0 36.2 

Freddie 92,489 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.4 

Ginnie 132,931 28.0 34.9 42.1 48.6 53.7 41.3 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 99,919 28.7 35.3 42.3 48.8 53.9 41.6 

FHA 61,716 30.1 37.0 43.9 49.9 54.4 42.8 

VA 28,756 27.4 34.4 41.6 48.2 53.5 41.0 

Other 9,447 25.8 31.0 36.2 40.4 43.3 35.2 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 33,012 26.0 33.4 41.5 48.2 53.2 40.4 

FHA 17,514 27.5 34.8 42.6 48.9 53.6 41.3 

VA 15,227 24.7 32.3 40.3 47.3 52.6 39.5 

Other 271 18.3 23.4 31.7 39.3 46.5 32.2 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 132,931 28.0 34.9 42.1 48.6 53.7 41.3 

FHA 79,230 29.5 36.5 43.6 49.6 54.3 42.5 

VA 43,983 26.5 33.7 41.2 47.9 53.2 40.5 

Other 9,718 25.4 30.8 36.1 40.4 43.4 35.2 

January 2018 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of January 2018.

In January 2018, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 42.1 percent, considerably higher than the 

37-38 percent median DTIs for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 53.7 percent, 

also much higher than the 47-48 percent DTIs for the GSEs. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI 

ratio was 43.6 percent, versus 41.2 percent for VA and 36.1 percent for other lending programs. 

26
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

748

751

679

726

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

The median FICO score for all agency MBS originated in January now stands at 726, slightly lower than last 

month. The figures clearly show that the median FICO score for Ginnie Mae borrowers has always been 

considerably lower than for GSE borrowers. The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrowers is wider 

in purchase loans than in refi loans.

27
Credit Box: Historical

80.0

96.5

83.3

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

LTV Ratio for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 75-80 

percent for the GSEs. Through time, both Ginnie Mae and GSE refinances have LTVs about 10 points lower 

than their purchase counterparts. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of January 

2018.

28
Credit Box: Historical

37.0

38.0

42.1

39.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

DTI Ratio for Refinance Loans 

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Debt-to-income Ratio

DTI Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of January 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of January 2018.

Median debt-to-income ratios on Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher 

than the GSEs. DTIs have been inching up this past year for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with the movement 

more pronounced for Ginnie Mae loans.

29
Non-bank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of January 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of January 2018.

The nonbank origination share has increased for all three agencies since 2013. In January 2018, Ginnie Mae’s 

nonbank share edged up to new high of 81 percent. Nonbank originator shares for Freddie Mac and Fannie 

Mae both moved back towards the historic highs reached in November 2017, after the dip in December. For 

Ginnie Mae, the non-bank refi share was considerably higher than the non-bank purchase share. The 

differences were more modest for the GSEs.

63%

54%

81%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

65.9%

58.1%

55.5%

87.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

61.3%

49.6%

53.3%

78.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

30
Ginnie Mae Non-bank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of January 2018.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of January 2018.

In January 2018, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share edged up to new high of 81 percent. Nonbank originator shares 

for FHA and Other issuance edged up to 85 and 82 percent, respectively, while the non-bank share of VA 

issuance was flat at 76 percent. The nonbank originator share is higher for refinance loans than for purchase 

loans across all channels.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

78.0%

69.8%

81.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

Ginnie Mae Non-bank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

85%

82%

76%

91.4%

86.3%

84.6%

31
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018. 

726

747

713

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018. 

670

690

710

730

750

770

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

670

690

710

730

750

770

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. The median GSE and the median Ginnie Mae 

FICO scores for loans originated by nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, both bank 

and nonbank FICOs have declined since 2014 with further relaxation in FICOs in 2017. In contrast, within the Ginnie 

Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations have increased since 2014 while nonbank FICOs have declined. This 

largely reflects the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks.

32
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTV ratios for loans originated by nonbanks are similar to their bank counterparts, while the median DTIs 

for nonbank loans are higher, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in this as well as in the FICO 

dimension. Note that in 2017 there has been a measurable increase in DTIs. This is true for both Ginnie Mae and GSE 

loans, banks and nonbank originators. This rising DTI trend continued for Ginnie Mae in the first month of 2018.

33
670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of January 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of January 2018

The FICO scores for both Ginnie Mae bank and nonbank originators remained relatively stable in January. The 

spread in the FICO scores between banks and non-banks remains at their widest level since the data became 

available in 2013. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent in all programs backing Ginnie Mae 

securities: FHA, VA, and Other.

660

665

670

675

680

685

690

695

700

705

710

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

660

665

670

675

680

685

690

695

700

705

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of January 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of January 2018

34
90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median LTV VA Bank Median LTV

VA Nonbank Median LTV

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of January 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of January 2018.

An analysis of the loans backing Ginnie Mae origination indicates that there are virtually no difference in 

median LTV ratios between bank originated loans and non-bank originated loans. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae LTV: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Ginnie Mae FHA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median LTV FHA Bank Median LTV

FHA Nonbank Median LTV

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Ginnie Mae Other LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median LTV Other Bank Median LTV

Other Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of January 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of January 2018

35
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of January 2018

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of January 2018

An analysis of the borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former are 

more conservative. The DTIs for FHA and VA loans experienced notable increases since early 2017 for both 

bank and nonbank originations, while the Other originations’ DTIs stayed relatively flat. 

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of January 2018 Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of January 2018

36
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

10%

13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae securities were lower than on GSE securities from 2011 through mid-2013, but have 

been higher since. These differences hold across all coupon buckets. The differences are especially pronounced on 

more recent production. These increased Ginnie speeds reflect the growing share of VA loans, which prepay at faster 

speeds than either FHA or GSE loans. This also reflects the fact that FHA streamlined refinances apply to a wide range 

of borrowers and unlike GSE streamlined refinances, requires no credit report and no appraisal. Some of the upfront 

mortgage insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. Moreover, both FHA and VA permit 

refinancing of existing mortgages after 6 months, while the GSEs do not allow refinancing for a year. With the 

increase in interest rates since November 2016, the prepayment speeds for all agencies have slowed down 

considerably. In 2017, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economic to refinance, the muted month 

to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day count and changes in mortgage rates. With mortgage 

rates substantially above 4%, we would expect prepayment speeds in the coming months to be more muted than the 

same month in 2017.

12%

11%

8%

37
Prepayments

6.9%

11.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2013 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2013 3.0 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2012 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

The 2013 Ginnie II 3.0s are prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts. 2012 Ginnie II 3.5s have been 

faster since mid-2013. The differences accelerated in 2015—potentially due to the FHA mortgage insurance 

premium (MIP) cut. In January 2015 FHA lowered its MIPs from 135 basis points per annum to 85 basis points 

per annum; this gives 2012 and 2013 FHA mortgages taken out with MIPs of 125-135 bps a 40-50 basis point 

rate incentive that conventional mortgages do not have. GSE guarantee fees have gone up over that same period, 

creating a disincentive for conventional loans. Moreover, recent originations are more heavily VA loans, which 

are more prepayment responsive than either FHA or Conventional loans. After a sharp mortgage rate rise in 

November 2016, the prepayment speeds of Ginnie and Conventional loans both fell dramatically. In 2017, with 

the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it non-economic to refinance, the muted month to month variations in 

speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With mortgage rates 

substantially above 4%, we would expect prepayment speeds in the coming months to be more muted than the 

same month in 2017.

13%

10%

9%

38
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.5 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

The 2011 Ginnie II 4.0s and 4.5s have been prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts since late 

2013. Faster VA mortgage prepays plus simplifications to the FHA streamlined programs in 2013 are likely 

contributors to the faster speeds. However, as mortgage rates rose sharply since November 2016, the speeds 

for all agencies have slowed down considerably. In 2017, with the bulk of the mortgage universe finding it noneconomic to refinance, the muted month to month variations in speeds reflect seasonality, changes in day 

count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With mortgage rates substantially above 4%, we would expect 

prepayment speeds in the coming months to be more muted than the same month in 2017.

13% 

10%

14%

12%

39
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.9

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$55.6

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance volume went down slightly, with issuance of $0.9 billion in January. 

Outstanding securities totaled $55.6 billion in January.

40
Multifamily Market

$1.4

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$109.2

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volumes in January totaled $1.4 billion. Outstanding multifamily securities 

totaled $109.2 billion in January.

41
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

$238 

$589 

$37 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.75%

4.07%

0.42% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$Billions

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume in February 2018 has been slightly more robust than in the 2014-2017 period. 

Agency MBS turnover has been higher in 2018 than in 2017; in the first two months of 2018, average daily MBS 

turnover was 3.75 percent versus 3.36 percent in 2017. Note that average daily Treasury turnover is also down 

dramatically from its 2005 peak. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury 

turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

42
Market Conditions

$204.9

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$34.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

Dealer net positions in Agency MBS are now at the very lower end of the recent range, although gross 

positions are likely down more. The volume of repurchase activity is near its lowest level in 13 years.This

reflects banks cutting back on lower margin businesses. 

43
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual 

Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2017.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (20 

percent), commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (11 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares 

are a fraction of what they once were. 

% of Total Agency 

Debt by Owner

44
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2017.

71.5%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2018.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, fewer agency notes and bonds are required to 

fund that activity, hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. For Q4 2017, the MBS share of total agency 

debt stood at 71.5 percent. Commercial banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $1.8 trillion 

in holdings as of the end of February 2018, $1.3 trillion of it was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Feb-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Feb 7 Feb 14 Feb 21 Feb 28

Largest Domestic 

Banks 1232.0 1290.8 1299.3 1309.2 1312.6 1318.6 1308.8 1293.1 1291.9 1292.6 1292.4 1295.7

Small Domestic 

Banks 459.4 474.5 477.2 478.1 477.4 476.3 476.1 474.4 473.1 475.3 474.9 474.2

Foreign Related 

Banks 13.1 12.8 12.1 12.3 19.4 38.8 37.0 35.0 33.6 34.2 36.1 36.1

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1704.5 1778.1 1788.6 1799.6 1809.4 1833.7 1821.9 1802.5 1798.6 1802.1 1803.4 1806.0

45
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $323,833 $189,098 $120,870 $13,317 $548 17.60%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $236,485 $189,928 $35,691 $4,683 $6,184 12.90%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $107,090 $71,767 $23,434 $497 $11,392 5.80%

4 U S. Bancorp. $77,867 $33,491 $10,859 $33,516 $1 4.20%

5 Charles Schwab Bank $68,072 $40,328 $12,454 $15,290 $0 3.70%

6 Citigroup Inc. $67,005 $50,868 $1,693 $9,508 $4,936 3.60%

7 Capital One Financial Corporation $52,701 $17,613 $11,747 $22,075 $1,265 2.90%

8 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $52,005 $31,031 $2,146 $16,722 $2,106 2.80%

9 PNC Bank, National Association $42,494 $31,655 $4,557 $3,156 $3,125 2.30%

10 Branch Banking and Trust Company $36,678 $11,847 $5,850 $20,373 $608 2.10%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $30,004 $4,141 $6,432 $10,336 $9,096 1.60%

12 Morgan Stanley $25,382 $9,996 $7,793 $7,593 $0 1.40%

13 KeyBank National Association $25,189 $944 $1,197 $23,048 $0 1.40%

14 E*TRADE Bank $23,235 $13,673 $3,703 $5,854 $0 1.30%

15 SunTrust Bank $23,089 $11,976 $11,050 $0 $62 1.30%

16 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $21,865 $5,525 $7,982 $8,354 $5 1.20%

17 MUFG Union Bank, National Association $18,848 $6,175 $5,447 $6,675 $551 1.00%

18 Regions Bank $18,550 $11,258 $5,154 $2,135 $3 1.00%

19 Ally Bank $16,252 $8,871 $2,816 $2,440 $2,125 0.90%

20 Fifth Third Bank $15,933 $3,539 $3,879 $8,515 $0 0.90%

Total Top 20 $1,282,576 $743,723 $284,753 $214,088 $42,008 69.90%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2017

Out of the $1.8 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts, $1.4 trillion is in agency pass-through form: $1.0 

trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $351.9 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. There are another $418.1 billion in 

Agency CMOs. Non-agency holdings total $56.1 billion. Ginnie Mae pass-throughs have been the fastest growing 

sector in the past 2 years. Bank and thrift holdings of MBS are concentrated, with the top 20 holders accounting for 

70 percent of the total, and the top 5 holders accounting for 44 percent of the total.

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

1Q14 $1,574.44 $1,029.68 $713.50 $232.44 $500.09 $27.08 $104.97 

2Q14 $1,526.12 $951.82 $717.27 $232.75 $445.17 $24.72 $104.41 

3Q14 $1,534.59 $951.99 $725.96 $226.03 $447.46 $21.89 $113.24 

4Q14 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

1Q15 $1,579.21 $1,012.26 $767.71 $244.55 $455.47 $17.70 $93.78 

2Q15 $1,583.22 $1,032.26 $784.22 $248.05 $445.91 $16.47 $88.57 

3Q15 $1,608.44 $1,064.67 $805.05 $259.62 $447.01 $13.60 $83.16 

4Q15 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

1Q16 $1,660.58 $1,133.29 $833.25 $300.04 $448.63 $10.27 $68.39 

2Q 16 $1,684.33 $1,169.67 $867.64 $302.03 $440.25 $9.11 $65.29 

3Q16 $1,732.36 $1,227.52 $924.81 $302.71 $435.77 $7.90 $61.17 

4Q16 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

46
MBS Ownership

$908.7

$390.8

$517.9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official Foreign Private

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of November 2017.

Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of Q3 2017.

14.4%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

Foreign investors hold 14.4 percent of agency MBS, up from the lows in 2013. For the month of November, this 

represents $908.7 billion in Agency MBS, $390.8 billion held by foreign official institutions and $517.9 billion 

held by foreign private investors. 

47
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2016 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of 

June 2016. Monthly data as of November 2017.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Taiwan, China and Japan; these three regions comprise around 70 

percent of all foreign holdings. Since June of 2016, we estimate Taiwan and Japan have expanded their holdings 

while China has contracted. For the first ten months of 2017, we estimate Japan and Taiwan have each added more 

than $25 billion in agency MBS.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17

Q3 

2016

Q4 

2016

Q1 

2017

Q2 

2017

Q3 

2017

Oct17 Nov-17

Taiwan 207,164 208,352 204,005 212,707 227,236 229,030 233,069 229,062 1,188 -4,347 8,702 14,529 1,794 4,039 -4,007

China 195,933 191,743 184,151 187,664 183,396 177,580 174,815 174,288 -4,190 -7,592 3,513 -4,268 -5,816 -2,765 -527

Japan 197,101 222,116 220,644 214,838 227,721 244,163 245,078 247,614 25,015 -1,472 -5,806 12,883 16,442 915 2,536

Ireland 47,635 48,307 47,065 46,178 45,353 46,393 47,429 49,890 672 -1,242 -887 -825 1,040 1,036 2,461

South Korea 50,323 50,072 49,000 44,349 46,577 47,581 48,073 45,381 -251 -1,072 -4,651 2,228 1,004 492 -2,692

Luxembourg 31,592 33,631 38,545 33,700 32,680 32,997 33,194 35,182 2,039 4,914 -4,845 -1,020 317 197 1,988

Bermuda 28,402 28,714 27,624 26,960 26,793 27,088 27,422 27,501 312 -1,090 -664 -167 295 334 79

Cayman 

Islands 31,076 30,686 30,186 29,014 28,763 29,014 29,303 27,860 -390 -500 -1,172 -251 251 289 -1,443

Switzerland 16,240 20,638 15,626 16,244 17,591 18,667 20,121 17,729 4,398 -5,012 618 1,347 1,076 1,454 -2,392

Netherlands 12,459 10,536 10,326 11,018 12,039 12,576 12,266 12,292 -1,923 -210 692 1,021 537 -310 26

Rest of World 148,860 139,634 137,432 121,753 124,977 121,455 124,317 125,785 -9,226 -2,202 -15,679 3,224 -3,522 2,862 1,468

Total 954,326 984,429 964,604 944,425 973,126 986,544 995,087 992,584 30,103 -19,825 -20,179 28,701 13,418 8,543 -2,503

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17

Q3 

2016

Q4 

2016

Q1 

2017

Q2 

2017

Q3 

2017

Oct17Nov-17

Taiwan 206,954 208,142 203,807 212,540 227,077 228,885 232,926 228,918 1,188 -4,335 8,734 14,536 1,808 4,041 -4,008

China 186,993 185,881 178,556 183,103 178,934 173,422 170,683 170,120 -1,112 -7,325 4,547 -4,169 -5,512 -2,739 -563

Japan 185,034 213,615 212,661 208,162 221,447 238,602 239,603 242,126 28,581 -954 -4,499 13,285 17,155 1,001 2,523

Ireland 37,695 39,142 38,405 38,910 38,381 40,054 41,203 43,650 1,447 -737 505 -530 1,673 1,149 2,447

South Korea 34,173 34,726 34,505 32,126 34,905 36,966 37,636 34,845 553 -221 -2,379 2,779 2,061 670 -2,791

Luxembourg 27,187 29,766 34,981 30,658 29,750 30,329 30,570 32,563 2,579 5,215 -4,323 -908 579 241 1,992

Bermuda 23,994 24,767 23,888 23,825 23,786 24,351 24,732 24,794 773 -879 -63 -39 565 381 62

Cayman 

Islands 22,815 22,918 22,851 22,847 22,855 23,637 24,017 22,523 103 -67 -3 8 782 379 -1,494

Switzerland 11,717 16,446 11,596 12,873 14,380 15,755 17,272 14,834 4,729 -4,850 1,277 1,507 1,375 1,517 -2,438

Netherlands 11,471 9,717 9,553 10,383 11,442 12,036 11,731 11,754 -1,754 -165 830 1,059 595 -305 23

Rest of 

World 83,560 76,575 77,885 71,554 76,980 77,729 81,338 82,541 -6,985 1,311 -6,331 5,426 749 3,609 1,203

Total 831,593 861,694 848,688 846,981 879,935 901,766 911,711 908,668 30,101

-

13,006 -1,707 32,954 21,831 9,945 -3,043
MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of January 2018.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of January 2018.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

The Fed has begun to wind down their portfolio, and we are beginning to see the effects in slower absorption 

rates. During the period October 2014-September 2017, the Fed had ended its purchase program, but was 

reinvesting funds from mortgages and agency debt into the mortgage market, absorbing 20-30 percent of agency 

gross issuance. With the wind down, which started in October 2017, the Fed will continue to reinvest, but by less 

than their run off. In January 2018, total Fed purchases increased slightly to $19.9 billion, yielding Fed 

absorption of gross issuance of 19.2 percent, up from last month’s historical low of 16.8 percent. The Fed 

absorbed 19.7 percent of Ginnie Mae issuance and 18.9 percent of GSE issuance, respectively.
All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise noted. The

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

The views expressed in this material are the views of Urban Institute and State Street Global Advisors as

of March 15, 2018 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document

contains certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such

statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ

materially from those projected.   

© 2018 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

CLADM‐ 

Expiration Date: 3/31/2019

[Internal Tracking Code and Expiration Date to be removed upon providing this document to Ginnie

Mae]