Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 5

Global 10-year treasury yields 6

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 7-9

Ginnie Mae yield spreads - Intermediate Credit 10

MBS yield per duration 11

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 12 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 13

National HPI, HPI by state 13-14 

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 15

FHA and VA Outstanding Loan Count Maps 16

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 17

Outstanding Agency MBS 18

Origination volume over time 19

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 20-22 

Purchase versus refi: Refi Issuance Breakdown 23 

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 24-25

FICO score distribution 26

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 27-29

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 30-31

Cumulative Default Rates: FHA and VA 32

High LTV credit box 33-34

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 35-36

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 37-40

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 41-42

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 42

Prepayments 

Aggregate 43

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 44-46

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 47

Multifamily 48

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 49

Dealer net positions, repo volume 50

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 51

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 52

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 53

Foreign ownership of MBS 54-55

Fed Ownership of MBS 56

CONTENTS
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50

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350

Dec-08

Apr-09

Aug-09

Dec-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-12

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

$ Billions

A Closer Look at Federal Reserve’s Purchases of Agency MBS

On March 23, 2020, in response to the market panic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve 

announced it would purchase US Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in any amount 

necessary to support smooth functioning of financial markets. This was in response to the dramatic widening of the 

spread between the 10-year treasury and MBS yields in early March 2020. At one point, this spread had widened to 

approximately 170 basis points, the highest level since the 2008 collapse of the housing market.

The Fed’s response was swift and unprecedented in scale and impact on the MBS market. It purchased $292.2 billion 

in agency MBS in March. This was followed by another $295.1 billion in April, which is the single largest month of MBS 

purchases ever by the Fed. In May 2020, the Fed bought another $101 billion. During the Great Recession, the Fed’s 

largest monthly purchase was $124 billion in March 2009. In just the first 3 months of the COVID shock, the Fed 

purchased nearly $690 billion in agency MBS. This compares to $296 billion from Jan to March 2009 at the beginning 

of the Great Recession (Figure 1.)

Figure 1: Fed’s Monthly Purchases of agency MBS

Source: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020

More insights can be obtained by looking at the composition of what the Fed purchased. This data is released by the 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Since the Federal Reserve intervention is designed to ensure the flow of credit to 

the agency mortgage market, it generally aims to purchase a mix of securities not too different from current 

production. The tables in figure 2 show the distribution of Fed’s purchases for the three-month period (from March to 

May) by coupon and the distribution of gross issuances over the same period. The top panel shows Ginnie Mae 

distributions and the bottom panel covers GSEs. The last column shows dollar volumes corresponding to each row

It is clear from this table that Fed’s purchases over this period were largely reflective of new issuances. For instance, 

36.8 percent of Ginnie issuances were in the 2.5 percent coupon, consistent with 32.7 percent of Fed’s purchases of 

the same coupon. GNMA 3.0 and 3.5 percent coupons tell a similar story. Having said that, there are a couple of 

interesting observations: the share of Fed’s purchases in the 4 percent coupon (9.7 percent) was well above the 2.7 

share of gross issuances. Also, the Fed did not purchase any 2.0 and 4.5 GNMA coupons despite some issuance.

HIGHLIGHTS
Figure 2: Fed’s Purchases and Gross Issuances of GNMA & GSE MBS, Mar-May 2020 

Ginnie Mae

GSEs

Source: Urban Institute Calculations based on New York Fed Data

The bottom panel of figure 1 shows the same detail for GSEs. 81.5 percent of GSEs’ March to May 

issuance was in the 2.5, 3.0, and 3.5 percent coupons, highly comparable to the 84 percent share of Fed’s 

purchases in the same coupons. Like Ginnie Mae, the share of Fed’s purchases in higher GSE coupons (3.5 

and above) exceeded the share of gross issuances in those coupons. But unlike Ginnie, the Fed did 

purchase some 2.0 and 4.5 percent GSE coupons.

The impact of Fed’s purchases on rates was substantial. During the three months from March to May, the 

Fed purchased more securities ($690 B) than in the five-month period from Jan to May 2009 ($517B) at 

the start of Great Recession. Earlier this month, the New York Fed announced plans to increase its 

holdings of agency MBS at the current pace, about $40 billion per month. These purchases have played a 

critical role in stabilizing the agency market. The spread between current coupon MBS and 10-year 

Treasury has tightened. Currently it stands at 70 basis points, well below the 103 bps average from 2000 

to 2020.

Highlights this month:

• Home price appreciation remained robust in April, at around 5%; this reflects a marginal slowing since 

February (page 13).

• April 2020 gross agency issuance was $239.3 billion, well above the April 2019 level of $96.8 billion, as 

lower rates gave borrowers a stronger incentive to refinance (page 22).

• In April 2020, median FICO score for agency mortgages reached 750, the highest level since at least 

2014, driven primarily by rising FICO scores for refinances and to a lesser extent purchases (page 30).

• In April 2020, Lakeview became the largest holder of Ginnie Mae MSRs. This the first time a nonbank 

issuer has topped the list (page 41).

HIGHLIGHTS

Coupons up 

to 2.0% GN 2.5 GN 3.0 GN 3.5 GN 4.0 4.5% and above $ Volume

Fed Purchase

Distribution 0.0% 32.7% 39.8% 17.7% 9.7% 0.0% $158.6B

Gross

Issuance 

Distribution

0.1% 36.8% 41.2% 13.6% 5.6% 2.7% $172B

$ Volume of Fed 

Purchases (B) $0.0 $51.9 $63.2 $28.1 $15.4 $0.0 $158.6B

Coupons up 

to 2.0 GSE 2.5 GSE 3.0 GSE 3.5 GSE 4.0 4.5% and above $ Volume

Fed Purchase

Distribution 5.6% 37.3% 31.8% 12.4% 10.6% 2.3% $530.1B

Gross Issuance

Distribution 13.0% 54.7% 23.9% 5.4% 2.1% 0.9% $474B

$ Volume of Fed 

Purchases (B) $29.7 $197.6 $168.6 $65.8 $56.1 $12.3 $530.1
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 27 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index- less 

than either the US Treasury share (41 percent) or the US Credit share (29 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

accounts for 10 percent of the overall index, the largest MBS component, while Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie 

Mac 30-year MBS both comprise 7 of the market. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the remaining 

balance (3 percent) of the Barclays US Aggregate Index. US securities are the single largest contributor to the 

Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 39 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 11 percent of the global 

aggregate. 

41%

1%

29%

7%

10%

7%

3%

3%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

7%

25%

11%

1%

2%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

1%

3% 1%

39%

29%

21%

1%

0.04% 2%

0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of March 2020.

Note: Numbers in chart may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of March 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of March 2020.

5
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2020.

After experiencing COVID-19 related volatility in March and April of this year, government bond yields across 

the globe stabalized. In May 2020, the yield on the 10-year treasury grew ever so slightly by 1 bp to 0.65 

percent. After widening from the pack in March and April, the Italian 10-year note yield fell by 29 basis points in 

May to 1.48 percent. The yield on the UK 10-year bond fell by 5 bps to 0.18 percent, the Japanese 10-year 

government bond yield increased by 4 bps to 0.01 percent, and the German 10-year yield was up by 14 bps to -

0.45 percent in May. At the end of May, the hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-

year JGB stood at 9 bps, an increase of 2 bps since April 2020. The hedged yield differential between the 10-

year Treasury and the 10-year Bund stood at 32 bps, a decrease of 13 bps since the end of April 2020.

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

6
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Nominal yields rose in May 2020, with GNMA II yields up 12 bps to 1.34% and GNMA I yields climbing 20 bps 

to 1.54% respectively. At the end of May, current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury 

counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 10-year Treasury yields) by 86 bps on the G2SF and 106 bps on 

the GNSF, an increase of 14 and 22 bps respectively since last month. 

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

7
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2020.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Japanese Yen, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the JGB 5/10 

blend at the end of May. More precisely, hedged into Japanese yen, the G2SF and GNSF have a 84 and 104 bp

yield versus the JGB 5/10 blend. This represents a 13 and 21 bp widening for G2SF and GNSF, respectively, since 

the end of April 2020.

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

8
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2020.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Euros, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the German 5/10 

Blend. The figures below show that at the end of May, the current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into euros 

have a 111 and 131 bp higher yield than the average of the German 5/10, respectively. This represents an 2 bp

decrease for the G2SF and a 6 bp increase for the GNSF since the end of April 2020. 

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

9
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 May-20

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2020.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 May-20

U.S. Intermediate Credit - OAS US GNMA 30yr II - OAS

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Spread between Intermediate credit and 30-year GNMA MBS OAS

G2 30 MBS versus Intermediate Credit

After tightening steadily from early 2016 to Jan 2020, the spread between US Intermediate Credit and GNMA II 

30 year OAS skyrocketed in Feb 2020 in response to the COVID-19 panic. This was followed by substantial 

tightening over the period March-May 2020. The OAS on intermediate credit partially recovered from its 

enormous widening early in the year, while the Ginnie Mae II 30-year fell to multi-year lows. Despite this 

tightening, the spread between the two remains much elevated, ending May 2020 at 110 basis points in 

comparison to 21 basis points at the end of Jan, reflecting heightened investor concern about corporate credit risk.

10
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of May 2020.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most government securities with the same or longer durations. 

The only asset class with significantly more yields are the US and Pan-Euro high yield and credit indices. 

Duration, a measure of sensitivity to interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield 

asset classes, as there is a large credit component, which has moved front and center in light of COVID-19. 

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 5.0 0.30

US 10y 9.6 0.65

GNMA II 3.0% 4.5 1.36

GNMA II 3.5% 3.1 1.16

JPY 5y 4.8 -0.13

JPY 10y 9.8 0.00

GER 5y 4.9 -0.65

GER 10y 9.8 -0.45

ITA 5y 4.6 0.88

ITA 10y 9.1 1.47

US credit 8.1 2.28

US credit >= A 8.0 1.73

US HY 4.0 7.02

Pan-Euro Corp 5.8 1.29

Pan-Euro HY 4.0 6.47

US 5y US 10y

G2 3.5%

G2 3.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration

11
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.52 0.91 0.84 0.10 0.19 -0.05

3 year 0.30 0.45 0.48 0.13 0.28 0.10

5 year 0.24 0.32 0.42 0.12 0.38 0.20

10 year 0.26 0.30 0.46 0.34 0.56 0.55

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.41 0.81 0.73 0.15 0.08 0.00

3 year 0.17 0.32 0.35 0.18 0.15 0.16

5 year 0.15 0.23 0.33 0.17 0.29 0.25

10 year 0.22 0.25 0.41 0.37 0.51 0.57

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.50 1.53 2.94 2.74 4.06 4.71

3 year 0.67 1.22 1.87 1.62 2.51 2.80

5 year 0.61 1.13 1.62 1.46 2.28 2.40

10 year 0.65 1.06 1.44 1.39 2.02 2.02

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.82 0.53 0.25 0.06 0.02 0.00

3 year 0.25 0.26 0.19 0.11 0.06 0.06

5 year 0.25 0.21 0.20 0.12 0.12 0.10

10 year 0.33 0.24 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.28

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of May 2020.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade is less than other indices. However, the 

standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least price volatility over a 1, 

3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of risk for the Ginnie Mae index is 

highest among all indices over a 1, 5 and 10-year horizon, and second only to the US Treasury Index over a 3-year 

horizon.

12
State of the US Housing Market

5.0%

5.8%

4.2%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Apr-01

Oct-01

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Bottom price tier Middle price tier Top price tier

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: Black Knight divides home prices in each region into quintiles; this figure shows the performance of the 

bottom, middle and top quintiles. Data as of April 2020.

0.66%

0.60%

3.29%

1.80%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

3Q062Q071Q084Q083Q092Q101Q114Q113Q122Q131Q144Q143Q152Q161Q174Q173Q182Q191Q20

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q1 2020.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquency rates for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans and VA loans all decreased in Q1 2020. GSE 

delinquencies remain just above their 2006-2007 level, while FHA and VA delinquencies (which are higher than 

their GSE counterparts) are well below 2006-2007 levels. The bottom chart shows nationwide house prices for the 

bottom, middle and the top quintiles by price. House prices have risen most at the lower end of the market where 

Ginnie Mae plays a major role. Prices at the lower end of the market rose by 5.8 percent for 12 months ended April 

2020, much higher than the 4.2 percent for the top end of the market. Year-over-year price growth in April was 

lower than March for all price tiers. 

13
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of April 2020. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when 

HPI reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to 

the lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 04/2020, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 57.8 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis 

peak valuation on a nominal basis by 17.7 percent. The picture is very different across states, with many states well in 

excess of the prior peak, while Connecticut remains 11.9 percent below peak level.

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 75.2% -25.4% 57.8% 4.2% 17.7%

Alabama 35.9% -15.2% 34.7% 5.6% 14.3%

Alaska 69.5% -3.0% 25.1% 2.7% 21.3%

Arizona 109.9% -47.9% 89.5% 6.8% -1.3%

Arkansas 41.5% -9.8% 26.8% 3.3% 14.4%

California 154.9% -43.3% 95.8% 3.8% 11.0%

Colorado 40.3% -12.9% 84.6% 3.9% 60.9%

Connecticut 92.2% -24.7% 17.0% 2.4% -11.9%

Delaware 95.0% -23.5% 33.1% 4.9% 1.9%

District of Columbia 174.7% -13.7% 60.4% 3.6% 38.5%

Florida 128.4% -46.9% 76.7% 5.4% -6.1%

Georgia 38.4% -31.5% 69.6% 4.5% 16.2%

Hawaii 163.1% -22.6% 54.4% 3.4% 19.6%

Idaho 71.8% -28.7% 96.7% 10.6% 40.2%

Illinois 61.6% -34.4% 39.9% 0.7% -8.2%

Indiana 21.5% -7.8% 38.9% 5.3% 28.1%

Iowa 28.3% -4.7% 27.9% 2.8% 22.0%

Kansas 34.6% -9.2% 44.2% 3.6% 30.9%

Kentucky 29.5% -7.7% 34.6% 3.8% 24.3%

Louisiana 48.8% -5.1% 25.0% 2.4% 18.6%

Maine 82.1% -12.4% 41.1% 5.2% 23.6%

Maryland 129.3% -28.6% 29.5% 2.4% -7.6%

Massachusetts 92.3% -22.6% 58.6% 3.7% 22.8%

Michigan 23.8% -39.4% 79.8% 3.0% 9.0%

Minnesota 66.4% -27.8% 58.9% 3.5% 14.8%

Mississippi 41.0% -13.7% 29.5% 3.7% 11.7%

Missouri 42.6% -15.3% 39.1% 4.5% 17.9%

Montana 82.3% -11.3% 54.9% 5.3% 37.5%

Nebraska 26.7% -6.6% 44.6% 3.6% 35.0%

Nevada 127.0% -59.1% 126.0% 2.8% -7.5%

New Hampshire 90.7% -23.2% 44.6% 5.6% 11.1%

New Jersey 117.9% -28.0% 29.7% 3.3% -6.6%

New Mexico 67.1% -16.4% 30.4% 7.6% 8.9%

New York 98.3% -15.2% 43.9% 4.3% 22.0%

North Carolina 40.7% -15.7% 40.6% 4.7% 18.5%

North Dakota 53.1% -3.9% 56.2% 3.7% 50.2%

Ohio 21.1% -18.4% 40.2% 4.4% 14.4%

Oklahoma 37.4% -2.4% 23.0% 4.7% 20.0%

Oregon 81.9% -28.1% 84.3% 4.2% 32.6%

Pennsylvania 70.2% -11.7% 26.9% 2.8% 12.1%

Rhode Island 130.8% -34.3% 57.5% 7.3% 3.5%

South Carolina 44.9% -19.5% 39.4% 4.9% 12.2%

South Dakota 45.1% -4.0% 49.2% 3.6% 43.3%

Tennessee 35.0% -11.8% 49.4% 5.8% 31.7%

Texas 33.5% -5.8% 54.9% 3.9% 45.9%

Utah 54.7% -22.1% 82.6% 6.6% 42.3%

Vermont 83.5% -7.5% 37.9% 7.1% 27.6%

Virginia 99.6% -22.8% 30.9% 3.9% 1.1%

Washington 85.2% -28.7% 96.5% 6.1% 40.0%

West Virginia 42.4% -6.5% 28.1% 3.7% 19.7%

Wisconsin 44.6% -16.3% 37.8% 2.8% 15.3%

Wyoming 77.4% -5.7% 33.9% 5.6% 26.2%

14
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg.

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000) GNMA Share GNMA Loan Count

GNMA Avg. 

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000)

National 32.7% 2,370,899 244.4 263.7 28.4% 11,527,236 164.6 192.0

Alabama 45.1% 42,441 184.7 206.4 43.0% 240,311 128.9 153.8

Alaska 54.2% 6,799 300.6 269.5 49.7% 38,973 232.2 200.6

Arizona 32.9% 88,208 240.0 245.5 27.6% 321,503 166.7 184.7

Arkansas 43.0% 22,888 158.5 185.4 42.7% 141,078 111.4 139.3

California 26.4% 221,187 384.2 376.3 18.5% 793,651 267.4 273.8

Colorado 32.2% 74,635 323.3 312.0 24.0% 240,283 223.3 233.0

Connecticut 31.9% 19,161 228.9 248.7 28.4% 111,568 182.0 188.9

Delaware 39.2% 10,503 233.5 247.0 34.4% 52,852 179.5 186.2

District of Columbia 17.6% 1,895 461.9 414.6 14.2% 10,070 301.2 307.8

Florida 41.7% 203,851 234.4 230.5 33.6% 856,582 168.6 175.5

Georgia 41.0% 107,373 208.1 235.7 36.4% 524,318 144.5 173.5

Hawaii 45.3% 9,273 539.1 428.8 28.1% 32,245 385.8 320.4

Idaho 31.6% 18,982 240.6 238.2 28.2% 79,968 158.6 175.1

Illinois 24.5% 67,730 195.2 224.2 23.4% 378,012 140.7 161.5

Indiana 35.8% 57,662 162.8 180.9 35.1% 310,851 111.6 128.7

Iowa 24.5% 15,346 164.2 186.6 24.4% 88,198 114.4 132.7

Kansas 34.4% 17,929 173.5 200.1 34.0% 106,961 120.5 140.6

Kentucky 38.5% 32,040 167.9 188.1 37.2% 171,105 121.7 134.7

Louisiana 43.9% 34,119 185.5 213.3 40.6% 192,127 137.5 160.2

Maine 33.8% 8,636 204.9 224.2 30.3% 41,609 152.6 163.5

Maryland 43.9% 64,348 309.2 299.5 36.9% 309,219 230.5 221.2

Massachusetts 21.9% 30,200 322.1 325.3 17.6% 126,240 238.1 233.7

Michigan 23.3% 56,914 166.7 194.7 23.2% 312,145 113.7 137.3

Minnesota 23.1% 34,551 222.1 237.1 21.8% 192,010 156.7 173.8

Mississippi 51.2% 20,108 168.7 190.1 49.1% 117,772 121.1 143.3

Missouri 32.9% 48,854 172.1 197.5 33.1% 269,078 121.0 140.9

Montana 30.8% 7,504 242.6 245.4 27.2% 37,299 170.5 181.3

Nebraska 32.5% 12,497 186.5 190.8 31.3% 74,675 123.5 139.0

Nevada 39.2% 41,011 278.5 260.0 31.2% 144,399 191.7 198.2

New Hampshire 31.2% 10,116 259.0 252.1 26.9% 45,547 194.4 184.6

New Jersey 28.7% 50,228 276.9 299.4 25.4% 253,489 209.8 221.6

New Mexico 42.8% 16,693 201.5 212.2 40.5% 99,635 141.0 155.2

New York 24.7% 48,061 270.7 302.2 23.8% 341,031 187.1 218.3

North Carolina 35.4% 87,249 206.3 232.1 31.6% 437,962 142.1 169.7

North Dakota 28.2% 3,344 229.4 228.1 24.8% 17,146 168.2 167.6

Ohio 33.5% 76,450 162.0 178.1 33.7% 460,051 112.5 128.4

Oklahoma 45.9% 29,976 170.7 190.4 46.3% 199,073 120.0 141.7

Oregon 28.6% 33,198 288.3 288.1 21.2% 128,281 202.0 213.4

Pennsylvania 31.5% 67,949 184.9 219.0 30.8% 424,610 135.9 160.0

Rhode Island 36.4% 8,003 253.8 247.9 31.9% 37,711 190.5 185.6

South Carolina 41.3% 51,716 207.8 219.0 35.5% 232,741 148.3 163.7

South Dakota 35.0% 6,269 197.8 208.7 34.0% 31,508 143.9 152.5

Tennessee 39.5% 60,712 209.9 229.2 36.8% 301,024 140.4 168.9

Texas 36.1% 200,266 222.6 240.2 33.6% 1,106,650 145.0 178.9

Utah 26.0% 34,189 279.7 284.3 23.6% 127,067 194.9 216.8

Vermont 25.8% 2,455 208.6 222.8 19.8% 13,118 164.5 159.9

Virginia 44.6% 93,605 302.4 301.0 38.5% 457,688 220.1 219.7

Washington 30.7% 70,914 326.4 330.3 24.6% 274,715 222.5 237.6

West Virginia 50.9% 10,334 171.3 173.0 44.9% 56,143 126.4 128.2

Wisconsin 21.2% 26,834 188.7 202.3 19.4% 139,574 133.8 142.9

Wyoming 41.5% 5,693 233.4 240.7 37.9% 27,370 177.5 178.9

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of April 2020. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 months, 

from April 2019 to April 2020.`

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 28.4 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 32.7 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 14.2 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 49.7 percent in 

Alaska. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

15
FHA and VA Outstanding Loan Count 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of April 2020. 

FHA Outstanding Loan Count by State

VA Outstanding Loan Count by State

Texas , Florida, and California are the top 3 states for FHA and VA lending as measured by the number of loans 

outstanding. As of April 2020, TX has 760,000 million FHA and 310,000 VA loans outstanding, FL had 550,000 

FHA and 270,000 VA loans outstanding, and CA had 530,000 FHA and 240,000 VA loans outstanding. Virginia 

ranks 4th for number of VA loans outstanding and 13th for number of FHA loans outstanding.

16
State of the US Housing Market

$11.2

$19.7

$30.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt Household equity Total Value

$0.44

$0.50

$6.88

$3.35

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Home Equity loans Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, eMBS and Urban Institute. Last updated April 2020. 

Note Top: Single family includes 1-4 family mortgages. The home equity number is grossed up from Fed totals to include the value of households and 

the non-financial business sector. Note Bottom: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, credit 

unions and other financial companies. 

The Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report has indicated a gradually increasing total value of the housing market 

driven by growing home equity since 2012, and Q4 2019 was no different. Total mortgage debt outstanding and 

household equity were up slightly from Q3 2019 to $11.2 and $19.7 trillion in Q4 2019, bringing the total value of 

the housing market to $30.9 trillion as of the year’s end. The market is now 20.8 percent higher than the pre-crisis 

peak in 2006. Agency MBS account for 61.6 percent of the total mortgage debt outstanding, private-label 

securities make up 4.0 percent, and unsecuritized first liens make up 30.0 percent. Second liens comprise the 

remaining 4.5 percent of the total.

17
State of the US Housing Market

As of April 2020, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $7.04 trillion: 42.3 percent Fannie Mae, 28.2 

percent Freddie Mac, and 29.5 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than Freddie Mac. 

Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA have grown very rapidly since 2009. FHA comprises 58.2 percent 

of total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 36.0 percent.

$2.98

$1.99

$2.07

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

$1.2

$0.7

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of April 2020.

18
State of the US Housing Market

$0.32

$0.15

$0.01

$0.19

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q1

First Lien Origination Share

In the first quarter of 2020, first lien originations totaled $670 billion, up from the Q1 2019 volume of $355 billion. 

The share of portfolio originations was 27.9 percent in Q1 2020, a significant decline from the 37.3 percent share 

in the same period 2019. The Q1 2020 GSE share stands at 47.2 percent, up from 39.6 percent in Q1 2019. The 

FHA/VA share grew to 23.1 percent, compared to 21.0 percent last year. Private-label securitization currently 

tallies 1.94 percent, down from 2.9 percent one year ago, and a fraction of its share in the pre-bubble years.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2020. 

27.9%

1.94%

23.1%

47.2%

19
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 $266.9 $225.7 $16.0 $508.6

2020 YTD $105.1 $110.1 $6.4 $221.6

2020 % Change YOY 66.0% 144.4% 79.7% 98.0%

2020 Ann. $315.4 $330.2 $19.2 $664.9

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 $597.4 $445.2 $1,042.6 $508.6 $1,551.2

2020 YTD $289.3 $208.6 $497.8 $221.6 $719.4

2020 % Change YOY 134.5% 114.6% 125.7% 98.0% 116.4%

2020 Ann. $867.8 $625.7 $1,493.5 $664.9 $2,158.3

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of April 2020.

Despite the rise in portfolio origination, agency gross issuance was a robust $1.55 trillion in 2019, the strongest 

year for agency gross issuance since 2013. This reflected primarily strong borrower incentives to refinance, 

further buoyed by improved home purchase affordability. And this strong issuance trend continued through the 

first four months of 2020, with gross issuance of $719.4 billion, up 116.4 percent from the same period in 2019. 

Ginnie Mae gross issuance was up by 98.0 percent and GSE gross issuance was up by 125.7 percent. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, FHA was up by 66.0 percent and VA origination was up by 144.4 percent.

20
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 $35.9 $58.0 $1.9 $95.7

2020 YTD $8.9 $24.4 $1.4 $34.7

2020 % Change YOY -29.9% 59.4% -708.8% 25.1%

2020 Ann. $26.6 $73.1 $4.3 $104.0

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $53.5 $11.8 $65.3 $89.6 $154.9

2014 -$4.0 $30.0 $26.0 $61.6 $87.7

2015 $3.5 $65.0 $68.4 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $60.5 $66.8 $127.4 $126.1 $261.6

2017 $83.7 $77.0 $160.7 $132.3 $293.0

2018 $81.9 $67.6 $149.4 $112.0 $261.5

2019 $87.4 $110.3 $197.8 $95.7 $293.5

2020 YTD $66.9 $58.3 $125.1 $34.7 $159.8

2020 % Change YOY 550.5% 116.8% 236.8% 25.1% 146.3%

2020 Ann. $200.6 $174.8 $375.4 $104.0 $479.4

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian 

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of April 2020.

2019 was a robust year for net agency issuance, with $293.5 billion of net new supply, 32.6 percent of this Ginnie Mae. This 

trend continued into the fourth month of 2020, with net agency issuance totaling $159.8 billion, up 146.3 percent compared 

with the first four months of 2019. Ginnie Mae net issuance was $34.7 billion, comprising 21.7 percent of total agency net 

issuance. Ginnie Mae net issuance in the first four months of 2020 was comprised of 70.3 percent VA and 25.6 percent FHA. 

21
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of April 2020.

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates rise, increasing when 

interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the same 

month in previous years. The April 2020 gross agency issuance of $239.3 billion is the highest single month since 

this data has been available, as lower rates gave borrowers a stronger incentive to refinance, contributing to a 

sharp increase. 

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $136.6 $8.5 $10.7 $10.3 $29.5

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $98.1 $2.5 $6.5 $9.4 $18.5

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $95.2 $9.7 $6.2 $9.7 $25.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $97.0 $3.3 $0.4 $11.7 $15.4

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $99.3 $7.7 $2.7 $13.3 $23.8

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $110.7 $7.9 $2.4 $13.3 $23.5

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $113.5 $5.6 $3.5 $12.3 $21.5

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $121.1 $12.0 $6.7 $15.4 $34.1

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $115.5 $7.7 $3.8 $10.6 $22.0

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $115.9 $5.5 $12.5 $11.0 $28.9

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $118.5 $3.9 $13.6 $8.3 $25.8

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $111.5 $9.2 $8.1 $7.0 $24.4

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.1 $0.2 $7.7 $20.0

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.3 $2.2 $7.1 $17.6

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $6.3 $14.1

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.0 $8.8 $16.5

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $5.1 $7.2 $10.5 $22.8

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.5 $6.8 $10.3 $19.6

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $10.4 $18.3

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $15.8 $7.9 $12.5 $36.1

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.9 $6.2 $9.0 $21.1

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $9.7 $7.1 $11.4 $28.2

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $3.6 $11.0 $9.8 $24.4

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $8.2 $22.8

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.9 $2.5 $9.2 $17.6

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.4 $3.4 $4.6 $9.3

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.8 $10.3 $5.6 $17.6

Apr-19 $33.1 $30.8 $32.9 $96.8 $1.3 $10.8 $8.3 $20.4

May-19 $44.5 $34.3 $38.8 $117.6 $6.7 $9.8 $9.4 $26.0

Jun-19 $44.6 $34.0 $43.3 $121.9 $1.9 $5.9 $9.0 $16.8

Jul-19 $51.7 $36.9 $45.9 $134.5 $10.9 $10.1 $11.0 $32.0

Aug-19 $71.1 $50.4 $51.2 $172.6 $20.8 $17.1 $8.7 $46.6

Sep-19 $67.1 $43.0 $52.0 $162.1 $14.1 $7.5 $6.5 $28.0

Oct-19 $65.0 $46.2 $58.4 $169.6 $7.4 $7.1 $11.9 $26.5

Nov-19 $68.1 $50.7 $54.3 $173.1 $5.2 $8.6 $4.1 $18.0

Dec-19 $62.1 $52.5 $52.7 $167.3 $10.1 $17.3 $7.4 $34.7

Jan-20 $61.7 $51.4 $56.0 $169.0 $9.1 $16.5 $8.6 $34.2

Feb-20 $56.5 $39.5 $51.2 $147.2 $9.4 $7.9 $7.1 $24.4

Mar-20 $69.5 $41.1 $53.0 $163.9 $17.9 $6.3 $8.8 $33.0

Apr-20 $101.6 $76.3 $61.4 $239.3 $30.5 $27.5 $10.2 $68.2

Monthly Agency Issuance

22
$17.3 

$41.2 

$12.0 $2.3 $0.1 

$5.2 

$14.2 

$5.2 

$1.7 $0.7 

$11.5 

$13.9 

$2.9 

$0.5 $0.1 

 $0

 $10

 $20

 $30

 $40

 $50

 $60

 $70

 $80

2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Streamlined Cash-out Not streamlined, not cash-out

Coupon

$ billions

Ginnie Mae Refinance Issuance by Type: 2020 YTD

US Agency Market, Originations

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of April 2020.

The FHA refinance share stood at 37.5 percent in April 2020, below the 65.8 percent refi share for GSE 

originations and the 64.6 percent share for the VA. Refinances as a share of all originations grew during most of 

2019 as interest rates were low. They grew through the first three months of 2020, as rates dropped further, but 

fell for FHA and VA lending in April. The bottom section shows that nearly all of 2020 YTD Ginnie Mae refinances, 

predominantly streamlined, were securitized in lower coupon pools. Cash-out refinances are typically securitized 

in higher coupons, but their volume has fallen sharply in recent months due to restrictions Ginnie Mae put in place 

in late 2019, to combat the “churning” problem.

64.6%

37.5%

65.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Percent Refi at Issuance

Refishare GSE FHA VA

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of April 2020.

23
Credit Box

41.3%

43.9%

72.2%

53.3%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Aug-14Dec-14Apr-15Aug-15Dec-15 Apr-16Aug-16Dec-16 Apr-17Aug-17Dec-17 Apr-18Aug-18Dec-18Apr-19Aug-19Dec-19Apr-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 72.2 percent in April 2020, down slightly 

from its historical high in May 2019. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of the Ginnie 

Mae purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 43.9 

percent and 41.3 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase originations respectively. The bottom table 

shows that based on mortgages originated in April 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely 

than an average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a much higher LTV, a similar 

DTI, and pay a slightly higher rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 267,958 291,504 265,193 285,228 223,029 278,101 245,549 285,858 

Credit Score 744.4 755.7 746.8 757.1 679.7 701.2 713.6 741.9

LTV (%) 88.3 80.1 87.1 80.1 97.0 95.7 92.2 84.2

DTI (%) 34.7 36.2 34.5 35.9 41.3 42.4 37.8 37.7

Loan Rate (%) 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.6

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of April 2020.

24
Credit Box

82.2%

55.7%

78.8%

72.2%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Jun-14Oct-14Feb-15Jun-15Oct-15Feb-16Jun-16Oct-16Feb-17Jun-17Oct-17Feb-18Jun-18Oct-18Feb-19Jun-19Oct-19Feb-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the 

Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 78.8 percent of FHA loans, 55.7 percent of VA loans and 82.2 percent of 

other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in April 2020. The bottom table shows that based on 

mortgages originated in April 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat 

buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, higher LTV, similar DTI and pay a higher rate.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 217,879 237,778 266,363 330,327 160,063 171,913 223,029 278,101 

Credit Score 670.5 673.4 699.4 728.4 694.4 698.1 679.7 701.2

LTV (%) 95.6 94.0 99.9 97.0 99.3 98.8 97.0 95.7

DTI (%) 42.8 44.1 40.0 41.6 34.9 35.6 41.3 42.4

Loan Rate (%) 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.6

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Includes only purchase loans. Data as of April 2020.

25
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2017.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 503 524 587 682 774 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 570 615 682 752 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (682) is equal to the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (682).

26
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 333,065 645 686 738 778 798 729 

Fannie 119,105 691 723 759 787 801 752 

Freddie 94,886 693 726 762 788 802 754 

Ginnie 119,074 622 644 677 725 770 686 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 493,760 672 712 757 786 802 745 

Fannie 238,826 692 727 764 789 803 755 

Freddie 172,336 691 726 763 789 803 754 

Ginnie 82,598 624 655 695 750 786 700 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 826,825 659 702 750 783 800 739 

Fannie 357,931 691 725 762 788 802 754 

Freddie 267,222 692 726 763 789 802 754 

Ginnie 201,672 622 648 684 735 779 691 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 119,074 622 644 677 725 770 686 

FHA 72,275 615 638 665 700 740 671 

VA 35,789 630 661 714 766 794 712 

Other 11,010 638 657 690 731 765 695 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 82,598 624 655 695 750 786 700 

FHA 31,479 609 637 664 696 733 667 

VA 50,311 641 676 724 771 795 720 

Other 808 641 668 702 745 778 706 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 201,672 622 648 684 735 779 691 

FHA 103,754 614 637 665 699 739 670 

VA 86,100 635 670 720 769 795 717 

Other 11,818 638 658 691 731 766 696 

April 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of April 2020.

In April 2020, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 684 versus 762 for Fannie Mae and 763 for Freddie Mac. Note 

that the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 622 for Ginnie Mae, versus 691 for Fannie Mae and 692 for Freddie 

Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 665, VA loans have a median FICO score 

of 720 and other loans have a median FICO score of 691.

27
April 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 333,470 73.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 87.7 

Fannie 119,013 65.0 80.0 85.0 95.0 97.0 83.1 

Freddie 94,970 65.0 80.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 82.3 

Ginnie 119,487 94.0 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.6 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 513,746 48.0 60.0 74.0 81.4 94.0 71.7 

Fannie 238,833 46.0 59.0 70.0 79.0 85.0 67.6 

Freddie 172,596 45.0 59.0 71.0 79.0 83.0 67.6 

Ginnie 102,317 71.4 81.4 91.2 97.9 100.0 88.0 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 847,216 53.0 69.0 80.0 95.0 97.0 78.0 

Fannie 357,846 49.0 62.0 75.0 84.0 95.0 72.8 

Freddie 267,566 49.0 64.0 75.0 80.0 95.0 72.8 

Ginnie 221,804 79.7 90.0 96.5 99.1 101.0 92.7 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 119,487 94.0 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.6 

FHA 72,549 93.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.2 

VA 35,881 93.4 100.0 100.0 102.3 103.0 98.6 

Other 11,057 95.3 99.2 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.2 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 102,317 71.4 81.4 91.2 97.9 100.0 88.0 

FHA 40,031 73.1 81.4 91.1 97.1 98.3 87.4 

VA 61,457 70.0 82.2 91.0 99.0 100.9 88.3 

Other 829 84.5 93.4 99.0 101.0 102.0 95.5 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 221,804 79.7 90.0 96.5 99.1 101.0 92.7 

FHA 112,580 81.4 92.9 96.5 96.5 97.3 92.5 

VA 97,338 75.2 87.3 98.0 100.0 102.3 92.1 

Other 11,886 94.5 98.9 100.9 101.0 101.0 99.0 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of April 2020.

In April 2020, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, 75 percent for Fannie Mae and 

76 percent for Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 101.0 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 95 percent for both Freddie 

and Fannie. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 98.0 for VA and 100.9 for other 

programs. 

28
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 333,206 24.0 31.0 38.7 45.0 49.2 37.5 

Fannie 119,189 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.4 

Freddie 94,969 22.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 47.0 35.1 

Ginnie 119,048 28.5 35.1 42.2 48.9 54.0 41.6 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 449,637 20.0 27.0 35.0 42.0 47.0 34.1 

Fannie 238,821 20.0 26.0 34.0 42.0 46.0 33.5 

Freddie 172,585 20.0 26.0 34.0 42.0 46.0 33.7 

Ginnie 38,231 24.6 32.0 40.1 48.2 54.0 39.5 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 782,843 22.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 48.0 35.6 

Fannie 358,010 21.0 27.0 35.0 42.0 46.0 34.2 

Freddie 267,554 21.0 27.0 35.0 42.0 46.0 34.2 

Ginnie 157,279 27.6 34.2 41.8 48.7 54.0 41.1 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 119,048 28.5 35.1 42.2 48.9 54.0 41.6 

FHA 72,519 30.4 37.1 44.0 50.0 54.5 43.0 

VA 35,520 26.8 33.6 41.1 48.3 54.0 40.7 

Other 11,009 25.7 30.6 35.8 40.0 43.0 35.0 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 38,231 24.6 32.0 40.1 48.2 54.0 39.5 

FHA 19,277 27.7 34.5 43.0 49.9 54.6 41.7 

VA 18,393 22.7 30.0 37.1 45.8 52.7 37.5 

Other 561 13.7 19.2 27.8 35.2 41.0 27.8 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 157,279 27.6 34.2 41.8 48.7 54.0 41.1 

FHA 91,796 29.8 36.6 43.9 50.0 54.5 42.8 

VA 53,913 25.3 32.0 40.0 47.6 53.6 39.6 

Other 11,570 25.0 30.2 35.5 40.0 42.9 34.6 

April 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of April 2020.

In April 2020, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 41.8 percent, considerably higher than the 

35.0 percent median DTI for both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 54.0 

percent, also much higher than the 46.0 percent DTI for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 43.9 percent, versus 40.0 percent for VA and 35.5 percent for 

other lending programs. 

29
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

763

762

684

750

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-14Dec-14Apr-15Aug-15Dec-15Apr-16Aug-16Dec-16Apr-17Aug-17Dec-17Apr-18Aug-18Dec-18Apr-19Aug-19Dec-19Apr-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in April 2020 was 750, up considerably since the start of 

last year, owing to the refinance wave, which higher FICO borrowers take advantage of with greater 

frequency. In addition, the increases in refinance activity have been much more dramatic at the GSEs than at 

Ginnie Mae, shifting the composition toward higher FICO scores borrowers. Note since early 2019, the median 

FICO scores for Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie borrowers have moved up for both purchase and refinance loans. 

The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrower FICOs is slightly wider for purchase loans than for refi 

loans.

30
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 75–80 LTVs 

for the GSEs. Median debt-to-income ratios for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, 

considerably higher than for the GSEs. DTIs increased in the 2017-2018 period for both Ginnie Mae and 

GSE loans, with the movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are very typical in an 

environment of rising interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies witnessed measurable 

declines in DTI, beginning in early 2019, driven by lower interest rates.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of April 2020.

80.0

75.0

35.0

41.8

36.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

31
Credit Box: Historical

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85

FHA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=660 DTI <=45, FICO>660

DTI>45, FICO <=660 DTI>45, FICO>660

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85

VA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=700 DTI <=45, FICO>700

DTI>45, FICO <=700 DTI>45, FICO>700

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of April 2020.

DTI is a much weaker predictor of performance than FICO score. The top chart shows FHA borrowers with higher 

DTIs do default more than those with lower DTIs, but the differences are modest, as evidenced by the fact that the 

black line is very close to the blue line and the grey line is not that much above the yellow line. By contrast, FICO 

makes a much larger difference, as can be seen by comparing the blue line to the yellow line or the black line to the 

gray line. And low DTI/low FICO borrowers default much less than high DTI/high FICO borrowers, as can be seen 

by comparing the blue line to the gray line. The bottom chart, for VA borrowers illustrates the same point; DTI is a 

much weaker predictor of loan performance than credit score.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of April 2020.

32
96%

85%

65%

47%

36%

97%

89%

62%

40%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

95%

85%

66%

47%

36%

97%

88%

62%

40%

30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

February 2018- April 2018 February 2020- April 2020

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

98% 92%

80%

63%

50%

99% 98%

85%

67%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In February 2020- April 

2020, Ginnie Mae accounted for 97 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, 

compared to just 30 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI 

bucket looks a lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In February 2020− April 2020, Ginnie Mae’s share of 

issuance was higher for DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share of 

loans with a DTI of 45 and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 85 percent; it was 62 percent for the same FICO in 

the lower DTI buckets. Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear the GSEs have stepped up their higher 

LTV lending for borrowers with FICOs of 680 or higher in the two lower DTI buckets.

33
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

February 2018-April 2018

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.9% 5.1% 2.8% 7.1% 8.7% 26.7%

35 −45 5.5% 9.5% 4.9% 11.0% 9.3% 40.1%

≥ 45 4.7% 9.0% 4.4% 9.0% 6.2% 33.3%

All 13.0% 23.6% 12.0% 27.1% 24.2% 100.0%

February 2020-April 2020

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.8% 4.7% 2.7% 8.0% 10.9% 29.1%

35 −45 5.0% 8.1% 4.6% 11.9% 11.2% 40.8%

≥ 45 4.5% 7.7% 3.7% 8.1% 6.2% 30.2%

All 12.3% 20.4% 11.1% 28.0% 28.3% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

February 2018- April 2018 68.5% 17.1% 33.6%

February 2020- April 2020 67.0% 12.3% 24.8%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 67.0 percent of its issuances in the February 2020- April 2020 

period having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 12.3 percent for the GSEs. The GSEs have decreased their highLTV lending share from 17.1 percent in February 2018− April 2018. Ginnie Mae’s high-LTV lending is also down, 

but by less than the GSE share, over the same period from 68.5 percent. The share of high-LTV agency loans 

going to highest FICO borrowers (i.e. above 750) has increased from the February 2018-April 2018 period to the 

February 2020-April 2020 period, as has the share of lower DTI borrowers (below 35).

34
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of April 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of April 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

87.0%

70.0%

66.3%

62.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

The nonbank origination share has been rising steadily for all three agencies since 2013. The Ginnie Mae 

nonbank share has been consistently higher than the GSEs, standing at 87.0 percent in April 2020, down from a 

record high of 90.2 percent at the end of 2019. Freddie’s nonbank share grew to 62.0 percent, while Fannie’s 

nonbank rose more gradually to 66.3 percent in April (note that these numbers can be volatile on a month-tomonth basis). Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all have higher nonbank origination shares for refi 

activity than for purchase activity. Freddie Mac’s nonbank share is the lowest among the three agencies for both 

purchase and refinance loans.

35
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of April 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of April 2020.

In April 2020, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share grew slightly to 87.0 percent. The nonbank originator share for FHA 

fell slightly to 90.5 percent in April, compared to 91.9 percent previous month. The nonbank originator share 

for VA was higher than last month at 84 percent and the nonbank originator share for other loans, which can 

fluctuate quite a bit month to month, fell to 88 percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

90%

88%

87%

84%

36
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of April 2020. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of April 2020. 

751

760

745

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020. 

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. FICO scores for loans originated by 

nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, where the differentials between banks and 

non-banks are small, FICO scores for both have increased since early 2014. The sharp rise in non-bank FICOs reflects 

an increase in GSE refinance activity, producing a shift in their business mix toward higher FICO activities. Within the 

Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations are measurably higher since early 2014 while nonbank FICOs 

have remained flat. This largely reflects the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks. 

37
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTVs for nonbank and bank originations are comparable, while the median DTI for nonbank loans is higher 

than for bank loans, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in both this and the FICO dimension. Between 

early 2017 and early 2019, there was a substantial increase in DTIs, which has mostly reversed over the subsequent 

months. This is true for both Ginnie Mae and the GSEs, for banks and nonbanks. As interest rates increased, DTIs rose, 

because borrower payments were driven up relative to incomes. With the fall in interest rates in 2019 and 2020, DTIs 

have dropped.

38
650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of April 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of April 2020.

The median FICO score for Ginnie Mae bank originators fell in April 2020; however bank FICOs remain 22 

points above non-banks. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent for FHA and VA lending.

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of April 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of April 2020.

39
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of April 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of April 2020.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA borrowers experienced notable increases during 2017 and 2018 

for both banks and nonbank originators, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are 

expected in a rising rate environment. After peaking in January 2019, Ginnie DTIs have reverted to 2017 levels, 

as rates have declined. 

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of April 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of April 2020.

40
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of April 2020.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Lakeview $212,702 12.5% 12.5%

2 Wells Fargo $212,544 12.5% 25.1%

3 PennyMac $188,281 11.1% 36.1%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $125,856 7.4% 43.6%

5 Nationstar $97,684 5.5% 49.0%

6 Quicken Loans $63,785 3.8% 52.8%

7 US Bank $57,435 3.4% 56.2%

8 Carrington Mortgage $47,465 2.8% 59.0%

9 Newrez $47,363 2.8% 61.8%

10 USAA Federal Savings Bank $39,426 2.3% 64.1%

11 Truist Bank $32,427 1.9% 66.0%

12 Caliber Home Loans $32,347 1.9% 67.9%

13 Navy Federal Credit Union $29,234 1.7% 69.6%

14 Amerihome Mortgage $25,491 1.5% 71.1%

15 The Money Source $21,362 1.3% 72.4%

16 JP Morgan Chase $20,106 1.2% 73.6%

17 Home Point Financial Corporation $20,025 1.2% 74.7%

18 Midfirst Bank $19,762 1.2% 75.9%

19 M&T Bank $17,747 1.0% 77.0%

20 Roundpoint $16,554 1.0% 77.9%

21 Loan Depot $16,383 1.0% 78.9%

22 Guild Mortgage $16,070 0.9% 79.8%

23 PHH Mortgage $14,437 0.9% 80.7%

24 Citizens Bank $13,407 0.8% 81.5%

25 Flagstar Bank $12,459 0.7% 82.2%

26 Pingora $11,951 0.7% 82.9%

27 Planet Home Lending $11,411 0.7% 83.6%

28 Fifth Third Bank $10,293 0.6% 84.2%

29 Bank of America $10,250 0.6% 84.8%

30 New American $9,907 0.6% 85.4%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of April 2020, over half (52.8 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 firms 

collectively own 85.4 percent. Eighteen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 12 are depository 

institutions. 

41
71.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In December 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. In April 2020, Wells Fargo’s holdings of MSRs fell to $212.5 billion, 

putting it below the $212.7 billion held by Lakeview (a nonbank). PennyMac, Freedom Home Mortgage, and 

Nationstar (all nonbanks) make up the remainder of the top five largest holders of MSRs, owning $188 billion, 

$126 billion, and $98 billion respectively as of April 2020. Nonbanks collectively owned servicing rights for 71.6 

percent of all outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by Ginnie Mae in April 2020. In December 2013, 

the nonbank share was much smaller at 27.7 percent. 

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$212,544

$188,281

$212,702

$125,856

$97,684

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

1. Lakeview 2. Wells Fargo

3. PennyMac 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

UPB ($ millions) 5. Nationstar

42
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

While prepayment speeds on all securities have risen since early 2019, the speed increase has been especially 

dramatic in early 2020. Note that aggregate Ginnie II speeds were lower than on GSE securities for the first time 

since early-2013. This reflected the sharp drop in interest rates as a result of the pandemic; GSE borrowers were 

more responsive to refinancing opportunities than their Ginnie Mae counterparts. The faster Ginnie speeds from 

2013-early 2020 reflected the growing share of VA loans, which tend to prepay faster than either FHA or GSE 

loans. In addition, FHA puts fewer restrictions on streamlined refinances, and some of the upfront mortgage 

insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan.

25%

24%

23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

May 11 Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May 13 Nov 13 May 14 Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15 May 16 Nov 16 May 17 Nov 17 May 18 Nov 18 May 19 Nov 19 May 20

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

34%

33%

31%

20%

43
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Speeds on the 2015 3.5s and the 2016 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have been 

increasing since early 2019. The increase has been especially dramatic for GSE securities in early 2020 due to a 

sharp drop in rates. Ginnie Mae securities have historically prepaid faster than their conventional counterparts. 

However in April and May 2020, the 2015 Ginnie 3.5s were slower than their conventional counterparts for the 

first time in years. The faster historical speeds on the GinnieMae cohorts reflect the fact that 2015 and 2016 

Ginnie originations consist of a large component of VA loans, which prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. 

The FHA streamlined programs are likely another contributor to the historically faster speeds.

32%

27%

26%

35%

34%

27%

44
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Ginnie Mae securities season more slowly than their conventional counterparts; they generally have lower 

prepayment in the early months but are more interest rate responsive thereafter. The charts below show the 

behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-issued 4.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years. 

Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s were prepaying faster than their conventional counterparts 

from late 2017 to March 2020, due primarily to fast VA prepayment speeds. Similarly, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s 

prepaid more slowly than their conventional counterparts until January of 2019. In 2019, speeds of 2018 4.0s 

and 2017 3.5s accelerated, and Ginnie II speeds accelerated more than their conventional counterparts. 

However, in early 2020 conventional speeds accelerated more than Ginnie speeds. Since March 2020, 

conventional speeds have exceeded those of the Ginnie cohorts.

40%

33%

55%

53%

41%

45
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2020..

The charts below show the prepayment speeds by loan age for 2017 Ginnie II 4.0s and 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s—the 

cohorts 50 basis points above the largest coupon cohort for those years. Prepayment speeds on the 2017 

Ginnie II 4.0s jumped up sharply at the 7-9 month loan age, reflecting abuse of the VA Streamlined Refi 

program (IRRRL). The 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s do not show increased speeds until the 9-10 month point; reflecting 

both the effect of lower rates and the actions taken by both Ginnie Mae and the VA in H1 2018 to curb this 

abuse. Ginnie Mae actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA prepayment speeds are 

especially high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling 

requirements so that if loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is 

ineligible for securitization. Ginnie’s latest action on this front became effective for securities issued on or 

after Nov 1 2019. It bars the securitization of over 90% LTV cash-out refinances into Ginnie I and Ginnie II 

pools (custom pools excepted). In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the 

lender to show the borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance. The recent experience of these 

cohorts indicates that, as a result of the cumulative actions taken in response to “churning” plus the 

acceleration of speeds in the conventional market in response to lower rates, Ginnie Mae and conventional 

speeds have largely converged. 

36.8%

32.7%

32.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR

Loan age

34.4%

32.9%

23.9%

46
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.81

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Aug-12

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$54.3

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile in recent months; after falling consecutively in August 

and September 2019, volume rose to $0.91 billion in December 2019 but fell in the first three months of 2020. 

However issuance rebounded in April 2020, growing to $0.81 billion. Issuance has been generally declining since 

early 2018 largely due to the implementation of the new, lower principal limit factors. In April 2020, outstanding 

reverse mortgage securities totaled $54.1 billion, lower compared to recent past, reflecting a lower volume of 

new issuances relative to paydowns.

47
Multifamily Market

$2.5

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$126.0

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Oct-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volume in April 2020 totaled $2.5 billion, a second consecutive increase from 

the prior month. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled $126.0 billion as of the fourth month of 2020.

48
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

$308 

$705 

$45 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.60%

4.23%

0.47%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume is $308 billion/day on average for the first four months of 2020, more robust than 

in the 2014-2019 period, but still below the pre-crisis peak of $345 billion in 2008. Average daily trading 

volume for Treasuries now exceed the pre-crisis peak. Agency MBS turnover in 2020 YTD (through April) has 

also been higher than the 2014-2019 period; in 2020, average daily MBS turnover was 4.23 percent, above the 

2019 average of 3.67 percent. Note that agency MBS turnover in the first four months of 2020 has been higher 

than US Treasury turnover, a rare occurrence. Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are down 

from their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

49
Market Conditions

$213.2

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$90.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Dealer net positions are near their post-crisis high. By contrast, dealer gross positions have fallen 

dramatically. The volume of repurchase activity is up from the near 13-year low in 2017. The large decline 

through time reflects banks cutting back on lower margin businesses. 

50
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The “other” category includes primarily life insurance companies, state and 

local govts, households, and nonprofits. Data as of Q4 2019.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (15 

percent), commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (12 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares 

are a fraction of what they once were. 

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

51
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2019.

72.0%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2007Q4 2008Q4 2009Q4 2010Q4 2011Q4 2012Q4 2013Q4 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Small domestic banks includes all domestically chartered commercial banks not 

included in the top 25. Data as of May 2020.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, fewer agency notes and bonds are required to 

fund that activity, hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. As of Q4 2019, the MBS share of total 

agency debt stood at 72.0 percent. Commercial banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $2.2 

trillion in holdings as of the end of April 2020, $1.6 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

` Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Apr-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20May 6 May 13 May 20 May 27

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1437.6 1509.8 1529.2 1509.7 1528.9 1538.6 1588.3 1629.3 1647.9 1616.7 1619.3 1629.2

Small Domestic 

Banks 494.0 516.4 521.1 531.3 535.9 539.3 547.6 550.2 549.7 549.5 548.4 547.9

Foreign Related 

Banks 26.5 37.1 37.6 37.8 38.3 39.3 44.4 46.5 46.2 42.2 43.5 43.6

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1958.1 2063.3 2087.9 2078.8 2103.1 2117.2 2180.3 2226.0 2243.8 2208.4 2211.2 2220.7

52
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $335,750.0 $194,646.0 $130,682.0 $10,091.0 $331.0 15.9%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $266,444.0 $191,354.0 $66,340.0 $7,974.0 $776.0 12.6%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $196,384.0 $121,504.0 $59,194.0 $243.0 $15,443.0 9.3%

4 Charles Schwab Bank $94,398.0 $58,319.0 $17,859.0 $18,220.0 $0.0 4.5%

5 U S. Bancorp. $93,918.2 $54,633.0 $23,047.1 $16,237.6 $0.6 4.5%

6 Citigroup Inc. $82,239.0 $69,418.0 $4,520.0 $6,450.0 $1,851.0 3.9%

7 Truist Bank $72,028.0 $23,559.0 $20,895.0 $27,276.0 $298.0 3.4%

8 Capital One Financial Corporation $65,121.8 $26,905.3 $14,199.2 $23,352.8 $664.5 3.1%

9 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $58,618.0 $37,536.0 $4,620.0 $14,914.0 $1,548.0 2.8%

10 PNC Bank, National Association $54,282.2 $44,217.0 $6,230.8 $2,191.9 $1,642.6 2.6%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $42,531.8 $23,818.0 $9,702.0 $6,809.8 $2,202.0 2.0%

12 Morgan Stanley $29,812.0 $18,305.0 $6,128.0 $5,379.0 $0.0 1.4%

13 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $28,639.7 $6,528.6 $13,382.6 $8,726.3 $2.2 1.4%

14 Ally Bank $24,855.0 $15,601.0 $2,294.0 $4,075.0 $2,885.0 1.2%

15 E*TRADE Bank $24,479.4 $11,640.3 $4,065.9 $8,773.2 $0.0 1.2%

16 TD Bank $22,299.7 $1,794.6 $183.0 $20,060.2 $261.9 1.1%

17 Citizens Bank $22,267.9 $11,694.3 $3,911.9 $6,050.4 $611.3 1.1%

18 KeyBank National Association $19,504.8 $1,307.7 $640.1 $17,556.9 $0.0 0.9%

19 USAA Federal Savings Bank $19,026.0 $16,621.0 $2,278.3 $126.7 $0.0 0.9%

20 Regions Bank $17,168.0 $11,484.0 $3,257.0 $2,426.0 $1.0 0.80%

Total Top 20 $1,569,768 $940,886 $393,430 $206,934 $28,518 73.81%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2020.

Out of the $2.1 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q1 2020, $1.6 trillion was agency pass-throughs: 

$1.2 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $448 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $444 billion was agency 

CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $42 billion. In Q1, 2020, MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for 

the sixth consecutive quarter. The increase was driven by both GSE and Ginnie Mae pass-throughs, with GSEs 

contributing the most.

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

2016 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01 

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04 

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69 

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,385.10 $1,001.61 $383.49 $422.18 $3.06 $34.65 

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,445.91 $1,037.93 $407.97 $421.56 $2.90 $36.76 

3Q19 $1,975.78 $1,506.92 $1,079.82 $427.10 $428.69 $4.74 $35.44 

4Q19 $1,985.38 $1,516.26 $1,089.41 $426.85 $428.99 $4.62 $35.52 

1Q20 $2,107.66 $1,621.00 $1,173.36 $448.34 $443.73 $4.65 $37.56 

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

53
Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of February 2020.

16.9%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

May-14

Aug-14

Nov-14

Feb-15

May-15

Aug-15

Nov-15

Feb-16

May-16

Aug-16

Nov-16

Feb-17

May-17

Aug-17

Nov-17

Feb-18

May-18

Aug-18

Nov-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

MBS Ownership

$1,174.8

$494.7

$680.1

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of February 2020. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Foreign investors held 16.9 percent of agency MBS in February 2020, up from a low of 12.0 percent in July 

2014. For the month of February 2020, this represents $1.17 trillion in Agency MBS, $495 billion held by 

foreign private institutions and $680 billion held by foreign institutions. 

54
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of February 2020.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise over 70 percent 

of all foreign holdings. Between June 2019 and February 2020, we estimate China has increased their agency 

MBS holdings by $28.9 billion, Japan has increased their holdings by $14.0 billion and Taiwan has increased 

their holdings by $0.73 billion.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019 Jan-20 Feb-20

Japan 297,016 311,047 305,329 305,662 310,619 14,031 -5,718 333 4,957

Taiwan 265,524 263,018 261,740 263,586 266,227 -2,506 -1,278 1,846 2,641

China 227,357 233,778 231,742 239,880 255,670 6,421 -2,036 8,138 15,790

Ireland 45,829 41,370 38,648 38,446 37,981 -4,459 -2,722 -202 -465

Luxembourg 47,646 46,633 39,004 39,349 42,386 -1,013 -7,629 345 3,037

South Korea 42,879 41,468 40,698 40,411 41,381 -1,411 -770 -287 970

Bermuda 29,365 29,184 33,897 28,133 28,990 -181 4,713 -5,764 857

Cayman Islands 34,967 29,432 31,036 31,292 32,285 -5,535 1,604 256 993

Malaysia 12,167 15,585 16,600 16,586 20,334 3,418 1,015 -14 3,748

Netherlands 14,074 10,548 10,902 10,875 10,830 -3,526 354 -27 -45

Rest of World 128,142 135,292 151,959 185,722 188,869 7,150 16,667 33,763 3,147

Total 1,144,971 1,157,355 1,161,555 1,199,942 1,235,572 12,384 4,200 38,387 35,630

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019 Jan-20 Feb-20

Japan 293,662 307,756 302,285 302,750 307,625 14,094 -5,471 465 4,875

Taiwan 265,234 262,733 261,477 263,334 265,968 -2,501 -1,257 1,857 2,634

China 221,738 228,265 226,642 235,001 250,654 6,527 -1,622 8,359 15,653

Ireland 37,674 33,368 31,246 31,365 30,701 -4,306 -2,122 119 -664

Luxembourg 43,978 43,034 35,675 36,164 39,112 -944 -7,359 489 2,948

South Korea 34,969 33,707 33,519 33,543 34,320 -1,262 -188 24 777

Bermuda 26,394 26,269 31,201 25,553 26,338 -125 4,932 -5,647 785

Cayman Islands 29,896 24,456 26,434 26,889 27,758 -5,440 1,977 455 869

Malaysia 11,881 15,304 16,340 16,338 20,079 3,423 1,036 -3 3,741

Netherlands 13,904 10,381 10,748 10,727 10,678 -3,523 367 -20 -49

Rest of World 97,585 105,309 124,225 159,189 161,592 7,724 18,916 34,964 2,402

Total 1,076,916 1,090,579 1,099,788 1,140,850 1,174,821 13,663 9,209 41,062 33,971

55
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Aug-09

Dec-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-12

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of April 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of April 2020.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Apr-12

Oct-12

Apr-13

Oct-13

Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

On March 23, 2020, in response to the market dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed 

announced they would purchase Treasuries and agency MBS in an amount necessary to support smooth 

functioning markets. In March, the Fed bought $292.2 in agency MBS, and April clocked in at $295.1 billion, the 

largest single month of purchases ever, constituting 123.2 percent of gross issuance. Prior to this, the Fed was 

winding down its MBS portfolio. From Oct 2014 to Sep 2017, the Fed ended its Great Recession era MBS 

purchase program, but was reinvesting funds from mortgages and agency debt into the mortgage market, 

absorbing 20-30 percent of agency gross issuance. The portfolio wind down started in October 2017, with the 

Fed allowing a pre-established amount of MBS to run off each month. From Oct 2017 to Sep 2018, the Fed was 

still reinvesting, but by less than the prepayments and repayments. In Oct 2018, the amount of MBS permitted to 

run off each month hit the $20 billion cap, leading to very small purchase volume between Q4 2018 and February 

2020. 

56
Disclosures

All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise 

noted. The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be 

relied on as such. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but 

its accuracy is not guaranteed. The views expressed in this material are the views of the staff 

of the Urban Institute's Housing Finance Policy Center and State Street Global Advisors as of 

June 25th, 2020 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. The views 

should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. 

This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. 

Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual 

results or developments may differ materially from those projected.

© 2020 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. 

Tracking Code: 3140557.1.1.GBL.INST

Expiration Date: 06/30/2021