Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 5

Global 10-year treasury yields 6

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 7-9

Ginnie Mae yield spreads - Intermediate Credit 10

MBS yield per duration 11

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 12

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 13

National HPI, HPI by state 13-14

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 15

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 16

Outstanding Agency MBS 17

Outstanding Ginnie Mae MBS volume by vintage and coupon over time 18

Characteristics of Ginnie Mae loansin forbearance 19-21

Origination volume over time 22

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 23-25

Purchase versus refi: Refi Issuance Breakdown 26

Credit Box 

First time homebuyer share—purchase only loans 27-28

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 29-31

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 32-33

Cumulative Default Rates: FHA and VA 34

High LTV credit box 35-36

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 37-38

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 39-42

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 43-44

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 44

Prepayments 

Aggregate 45

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 46-48

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS and Multifamily 49

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 50

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 51

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 52

Foreign ownership of MBS 53-54

Fed Ownership of MBS 55

CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS

2020 was a Historic Year for Ginnie Mae’s VA-backed Issuances 

Record low mortgage rates since April 2020 have strongly boosted refinance volumes across the board. As 

a result, 2020 became a record year for mortgage originations, with over $4 trillion in total volume across 

the market (see page 22). Although lending volume spiked across all channels, VA lending registered the 

largest year-over-year increase in the government lending market. Growth was so strong that not only did 

VA-backed issuance volume hit a record high, it also exceeded FHA-insured issuances for the first time 

ever. As figure 1 shows, VA gross issuance totaled $424 billion in 2020 compared to $226 billion in 2019. 

FHA issuances totaled $327 billion in 2020 (the second highest level ever), in comparison to $267 billion 

the prior year. Also noteworthy is the split between the FHA and VA shares—VA’s share of Ginnie Mae 

issuances has been trending up since 2009, when it stood at 16.5 percent. In 2020 it reached 55 percent, 

thus constituting the majority of Ginnie Mae issuances.

Figure 1: FHA and VA Annual Issuances

Source: eMBS and Urban Institute

Digging deeper into these numbers by loan purpose, as table 1 shows, non-cashout refinances registered 

the largest increase in 2020 compared to 2019, with FHA’s non-cashoutissuances more than doubling and 

VA’s more than tripling. Purchase originations increased too, reflecting improved payment affordability 

amidst lower rates. Lastly, cash-out refinances, which represent a much smaller portion of issuances in any 

given year, fell in 2020 because of tightened eligibility criteria for FHA cash-outs as well as pooling 

restrictions that Ginnie Mae put in place in 2019 to combat the churning problem (See APM 19-05). In 

particular, the decline in VA’s cash-out issuances, even as house prices continue to appreciate, strongly 

suggests that Ginnie Mae 2019 actions have had an impact.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

FHA VA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

VA FHA
Table 1: FHA and VA issuances Volume by Loan Purpose ($ billions)

Source: eMBS and Urban Institute

Lastly, it is worth highlighting that issuance volumes tell only one side of the story. Despite a hefty increase in 

VA’s 2020 issuance volume, the FHA nevertheless remains the predominant provider of government mortgages 

by loan count. Out of a total 1.3 million government loans originated in 2020, FHA accounted for over 842,000 

loans, almost two-thirds. FHA’s 2020 purchase issuance volume of $193.2 billion enabled over 840,000 families 

to purchase their homes, whereas VA’s purchase volume of $136.4 billion did the same for 438,000 families. 

Additionally, a much higher share of FHA loans—about 78 percent by count—went to first time homebuyers, in 

comparison to 53 percent for VA. These trends are consistent with FHA’s mission to enable homeownership for 

first-time homebuyers and households of limited wealth and with VA’s mission to provide a homeownership 

benefit for our veterans. 

Highlights this month:

• Mortgage originations in 2020 totaled $4.04 trillion, a new record, which exceeded the 2003 record volume

of $3.5 trillion by $320 billion (page 22).

• 2020 was the first calendar year in which the volume of VA-backed issuances ($424 billion) exceeded the

volume of FHA-insured issuances ($327 billion.) This is a new milestone for the VA program (page 24).

• Serious delinquency rates for single-family GSE loans fell slightly in Q4 2020 while FHA and VA serious

delinquency rates continued to rise but at a slower rate (page 13).

HIGHLIGHTS

FHA VA

Purchase Refinance 

(non-cashout)

Cash-out 

refinance Purchase Refinance (non-cashout)

Cash-out 

refinance

2013 $103.2 $67.6 $6.6 $50.6 $45.8 $12.3

2014 $105.1 $21.9 $6.8 $64.8 $27.8 $14.5

2015 $149.5 $68.4 $14.4 $77.1 $49.5 $23.4

2016 $173.8 $60.5 $21.9 $90.6 $77.1 $32.9

2017 $172.8 $31.1 $29.7 $98.3 $33.2 $38.3

2018 $157.1 $13.8 $30.0 $101.0 $12.9 $35.6

2019 $167.8 $42.8 $35.8 $111.3 $65.9 $40.6

2020 $193.2 $96.7 $20.5 $136.4 $232.5 $37.0
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 27 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index—less 

than either the US Treasury share (37 percent) or the US Credit share (32 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

accounts for 10 percent of the overall index, the largest MBS component, while Freddie Mac 30-year MBS and Ginnie 

Mae 30-year MBS comprise 7 and 6 percent of the market, respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years 

comprise the remaining balance (4 percent) of the Barclays US Aggregate Index. US securities are the single largest 

contributor to the Barclays Global Aggregate, accounting for 36 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 10

percent of the global aggregate.

37%

2%

32%

6%

10%

7%

4%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

53%

9%

25%

10%

1%

2%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

5

2%

3% 1%

36%

30%

21%

1%

0.04%

2% 0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Note: Numbers in chart may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of December 2020.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of December 2020.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

6

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2021.

After experiencing COVID-19 related volatility in March and April of 2020, government bond yields across the 

globe stabilized. Yields on the 10-year treasury increased by 15 bps to 1.07 percent in January 2021, remaining 

the highest of the developed world. The yield on the Italian 10-year note, which was higher than the 10-year 

sovereign debt of the US, Japan, and Europe for much of 2020, increased by 10 bps to 0.64 percent. The yield on 

the UK 10-year bond rose by 13 bps to 0.33 percent, while the Japanese 10-year government bond increased 

more slightly by 3 bp to 0.05 percent in January. The German 10-year yield rose by 5 bps to negative 0.52 

percent in January. At the end of January 2021, the hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury and 

the 10-year JGB stood at 62 bps, a widening of 16 bps from the previous month. The hedged yield differential 

between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year Bund stood at 79 bps, an expansion of 13 bps since the end of 

December 2020.

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

7

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Nominal yields were up in January 2021, with GNMA II yields rising 13 bps to 1.33 percent and GNMA I yields 

up 21 bps to 1.49 percent. At the end of January, current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury 

counterparts (relative to the average of 5- and 10-year Treasury yields) by 59 bps on the G2SF and 74 bps on 

the GNSF, a widening of 3 and 11 bps on the G2SF and GNSF, respectively, since last month.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

8

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2021.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Japanese Yen, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the JGB 5/10 

blend at the end of January 2021. More precisely, hedged into Japanese yen, the G2SF and GNSF have a 96 and 

112 bp yield, respectively, versus the JGB 5/10 blend. This represents a 15 bp widening for G2SF and a 23 bp

widening for GNSF since the end of December 2020.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

9

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2021.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Euros, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the German 5/10 

Blend. The figures below show that at the end of January 2021, the current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into 

euros have a 116 and 131 bp higher yield than the average of the German 5/10, respectively. This represents a 

13 and 21 bp expansion for the G2SF and GNSF, respectively, since the end of December 2020.

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19 Mar-20 Aug-20 Jan-21

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2021.

10

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19 Mar-20 Aug-20 Jan-21

U.S. Intermediate Credit - OAS US GNMA 30yr II - OAS

Sources: State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Spread between Intermediate credit and 30-year GNMA MBS OAS

G2 30 MBS versus Intermediate Credit

After tightening steadily from mid-2016 to January 2020, the spread between US Intermediate Credit and GNMA II 

30 year OAS skyrocketed in February 2020 in response to the COVID-19 panic. This was followed by substantial 

tightening over the remainder of 2020 and into the first month of 2021. The OAS on intermediate credit partially 

recovered from its enormous widening in early 2020, while the Ginnie Mae II 30-year fell to multi-year lows. 

Despite this tightening, the spread between the two remains much elevated, ending January 2021 at 62 bps, higher 

than the 21 bps in January 2020, but similar to levels in 2018 an early 2019.
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency ofsecurity and unhedged. 

Data as of January 2021.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most government securities with the same or longer durations. 

The only asset classes with significantly more yield are the US and Pan-Euro high yield and credit indices. 

Duration, a measure of sensitivity to interest rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield 

asset classes, as there is a large credit component, which has moved front and center in light of COVID-19.

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.9 0.42

US 10y 9.3 1.07

GNMA II 3.0% 3.4 0.87

GNMA II 3.5% 2.2 0.65

JPY 5y 4.9 -0.11

JPY 10y 9.8 0.05

GER 5y 5.2 -0.74

GER 10y 10.1 -0.52

ITA 5y 4.9 0.06

ITA 10y 9.7 0.64

US credit 8.4 1.79

US credit >= A 8.1 1.47

US HY 3.6 4.31

Pan-Euro Corp 5.8 0.46

Pan-Euro HY 3.5 3.38

11

US 5y

US 10y

G2 3.5%

G2 3.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Source: State Street

*A 2% max r

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.25 0.37 0.53 0.12 0.69 0.28

3 year 0.31 0.44 0.58 0.26 0.53 0.31

5 year 0.21 0.26 0.53 0.24 0.75 0.44

10 year 0.24 0.27 0.46 0.38 0.55 0.54

* ssumes 2 capitalization ma per issue

*Assumes 2% capitalization max pe is

Source: State Street

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.23 0.35 0.52 0.18 0.67 0.33

3 year 0.20 0.33 0.47 0.32 0.42 0.37

5 year 0.12 0.17 0.44 0.30 0.66 0.50

10 year 0.19 0.22 0.41 0.41 0.51 0.57

St S

p r i suer

*A 2% on max 

Source: State Street

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.54 1.29 3.08 2.73 4.39 4.90

3 year 0.61 1.22 2.01 1.64 2.71 2.91

5 year 0.58 1.12 1.70 1.38 2.25 2.36

10 year 0.63 1.04 1.47 1.36 2.04 2.04

* ssumes 2 capitalizatiCor o ma per issuer

12

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Co p

Pan Euro 

Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.43 0.27 0.17 0.07 0.15 0.07

3 year 0.33 0.27 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.13

5 year 0.20 0.15 0.26 0.22 0.29 0.21

10 year 0.30 0.21 0.28 0.30 0.25 0.28

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of January 2021.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade is less than other indices. However, the 

standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least price volatility over a 1, 

3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of risk for the Ginnie Mae index is 

highest among all asset classes over 1, 3 and 10-year horizons and in the middle of the pack over 5-year horizon.
3.20%

3.04%

10.76%

5.77%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1Q074Q073Q082Q091Q104Q103Q112Q121Q134Q133Q142Q151Q164Q163Q172Q181Q194Q193Q20

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q4 2020.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

4Q20

State of the US Housing Market

13

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Bottom price tier Middle price tier Top price tier

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: Black Knight divides home prices in each region into quintiles; this figure shows the performance of the 

bottom, middle and top quintiles. Data as of December 2020.

Serious delinquency rates for single-family GSE loans fell slightly in Q4 2020 while FHA and VA serious delinquency 

rates continued to rise but at a slower rate. The increase in delinquencies from Q2-Q4 2020 reflects the impact of 

the pandemic on mortgage payments. The bottom chart shows nationwide house prices for the bottom, middle and 

the top quintiles by price. House prices have risen most at the lower end of the market where Ginnie Mae plays a 

major role. Prices at the lower end of the market rose by 4.6 percent for 12 months ended December 2020, higher 

than the 4.1 percent for the top end of the market. Year-over-year price growth in December was lower than in 

November for all price tiers.

4.6%

4.3%

4.1%
State of the US Housing Market

bt,

ehold

De

hous

mortg

$9,833

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: 

rtgages,

HPI data as of December 2020. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month 

when HPI reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell 

to the lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 12/2020, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 59.9 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis peak 

valuation on a nominal basis by 19.7 percent. The picture is very different across states, with most states well in excess of the 

prior peak; six states remain below their 2007 peak, with Connecticut, at 10.4 percent below peak level, the most underwater.

14

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 74.8% -25.2% 59.9% 4.1% 19.7%

Alabama 36.0% -15.4% 37.4% 4.5% 16.3%

Alaska 69.3% -3.1% 26.1% 3.4% 22.3%

Arizona 109.8% -47.8% 93.5% 4.9% 1.0%

Arkansas 41.3% -9.6% 26.6% 4.0% 14.4%

California 154.5% -43.3% 97.7% 4.2% 12.2%

Colorado 40.3% -12.9% 86.6% 4.1% 62.6%

Connecticut 92.1% -24.7% 19.0% 3.4% -10.4%

Delaware 94.1% -23.4% 35.3% 4.2% 3.6%

District of Columbia 174.1% -13.8% 62.3% 4.7% 39.9%

Florida 128.0% -46.8% 80.8% 4.9% -3.7%

Georgia 38.5% -31.2% 71.4% 4.0% 17.9%

Hawaii 163.0% -22.5% 58.0% 4.1% 22.4%

Idaho 71.7% -28.7% 102.0% 6.3% 44.1%

Illinois 61.6% -34.3% 40.7% 2.7% -7.6%

Indiana 21.4% -8.0% 41.5% 3.8% 30.2%

Iowa 28.3% -4.7% 29.6% 3.0% 23.5%

Kansas 34.5% -9.2% 56.5% 10.3% 42.1%

Kentucky 29.6% -7.5% 36.8% 3.8% 26.6%

Louisiana 48.6% -5.2% 27.1% 3.6% 20.5%

Maine 82.0% -12.4% 55.6% 11.5% 36.3%

Maryland 129.1% -28.6% 31.2% 3.6% -6.3%

Massachusetts 92.2% -22.4% 60.4% 3.8% 24.5%

Michigan 23.8% -39.2% 81.0% 3.6% 9.9%

Minnesota 66.3% -27.7% 60.7% 4.1% 16.2%

Mississippi 41.2% -13.9% 36.5% 6.8% 17.6%

Missouri 42.6% -15.3% 41.0% 3.7% 19.4%

Montana 82.5% -11.4% 59.7% 4.4% 41.4%

Nebraska 26.8% -6.8% 46.1% 3.5% 36.2%

Nevada 126.7% -59.0% 129.2% 4.2% -5.9%

New Hampshire 90.5% -23.1% 47.7% 4.3% 13.5%

New Jersey 117.6% -27.9% 31.9% 3.7% -4.9%

New Mexico 66.7% -16.4% 33.6% 5.6% 11.8%

New York 98.3% -15.2% 47.4% 4.2% 25.0%

North Carolina 40.6% -15.8% 43.2% 4.3% 20.6%

North Dakota 53.2% -4.0% 58.9% 3.6% 52.6%

Ohio 21.1% -18.3% 42.0% 3.8% 16.0%

Oklahoma 37.3% -2.6% 26.2% 4.5% 23.0%

Oregon 81.8% -28.0% 85.8% 4.0% 33.7%

Pennsylvania 70.1% -11.7% 28.7% 3.2% 13.6%

Rhode Island 130.2% -34.1% 62.1% 5.1% 6.8%

South Carolina 44.7% -19.4% 41.6% 4.2% 14.2%

South Dakota 45.3% -3.7% 57.2% 8.0% 51.4%

Tennessee 34.9% -11.9% 52.9% 4.8% 34.8%

Texas 33.5% -5.8% 57.1% 4.1% 48.1%

Utah 54.8% -22.2% 85.5% 5.0% 44.4%

Vermont 83.5% -7.5% 40.9% 3.5% 30.4%

Virginia 99.9% -22.7% 32.7% 4.2% 2.5%

Washington 85.0% -28.6% 97.4% 5.3% 40.9%

West Virginia 40.8% -5.8% 32.2% 8.0% 24.5%

Wisconsin 44.8% -16.3% 38.5% 3.0% 15.9%

Wyoming 77.6% -7.3% 39.7% 4.9% 29.5%
State of the US Housing Market

bt,

hold

De

house

mortg

$9,833

rtgages,

Agency Issuance (past 1 year)

State GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg.

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000)

Agency Outstanding 

GNMA Share GNMA Loan 

Count

GNMA Avg. 

Loan Size (000)

GSE Avg. Loan 

Size (000)

National 24.7% 2,879,830 256.6 282.1 24.5% 11,106,722 165.1 203.4

Alabama 37.7% 53,291 198.1 223.0 38.9% 236,315 129.1 161.6

Alaska 46.7% 9,405 312.1 280.3 44.5% 37,463 231.6 208.8

Arizona 25.9% 107,647 251.3 257.9 23.2% 303,504 169.3 196.5

Arkansas 35.4% 28,653 169.6 202.3 38.3% 138,597 111.1 146.4

California 17.3% 261,408 395.2 391.1 15.2% 745,606 270.0 293.4

Colorado 24.5% 88,856 334.4 321.4 20.7% 231,294 230.0 248.9

Connecticut 23.7% 22,921 240.7 268.7 24.8% 107,623 180.6 196.4

Delaware 30.6% 12,638 241.9 260.7 31.2% 51,941 179.9 193.5

District of Columbia 13.2% 2,527 506.2 441.4 11.1% 9,269 298.5 328.7

Florida 35.4% 246,467 246.6 249.2 30.4% 849,191 172.3 184.8

Georgia 33.1% 132,023 219.6 252.8 32.5% 509,938 146.3 183.1

Hawaii 40.9% 13,594 555.0 442.3 24.7% 32,782 384.7 331.3

Idaho 24.3% 22,279 255.7 251.8 23.5% 75,184 163.0 190.3

Illinois 17.4% 78,786 204.6 237.4 20.3% 362,126 139.9 168.4

Indiana 26.7% 66,432 171.9 193.5 30.4% 295,529 111.9 136.7

Iowa 16.7% 17,091 174.1 197.8 20.9% 85,260 114.5 140.6

Kansas 24.8% 21,168 184.6 215.0 28.9% 101,803 119.6 150.1

Kentucky 30.3% 37,594 179.5 200.6 33.3% 167,071 121.7 142.3

Louisiana 35.0% 42,090 195.3 229.8 36.9% 190,112 137.8 167.3

Maine 24.5% 10,001 212.2 238.2 25.9% 40,011 152.8 174.0

Maryland 34.6% 83,189 325.7 316.2 31.9% 295,296 228.7 231.6

Massachusetts 14.2% 33,297 333.2 340.5 14.8% 119,786 241.0 249.8

Michigan 16.5% 62,694 174.1 205.7 20.2% 295,004 114.1 144.6

Minnesota 16.1% 40,942 232.7 249.0 17.8% 176,079 156.4 183.8

Mississippi 43.0% 23,791 179.9 206.2 45.7% 117,268 121.7 149.0

Missouri 24.6% 56,767 182.2 210.7 28.9% 258,882 120.7 148.9

Montana 24.2% 9,748 255.2 259.8 22.9% 35,727 171.2 193.0

Nebraska 23.6% 15,135 198.6 205.6 26.3% 70,320 123.4 147.9

Nevada 33.9% 49,828 287.8 269.6 27.6% 138,277 197.4 207.8

New Hampshire 22.2% 11,438 269.4 265.0 22.8% 42,984 194.8 195.7

New Jersey 19.5% 57,624 284.7 320.5 21.4% 239,449 209.7 234.7

New Mexico 36.5% 20,883 213.0 226.2 36.8% 97,402 141.0 162.0

New York 17.9% 46,458 282.5 316.8 21.1% 319,319 185.7 225.8

North Carolina 28.6% 110,809 219.4 249.5 27.9% 428,424 143.1 179.5

North Dakota 20.5% 4,308 237.3 232.7 21.1% 16,815 168.5 175.7

Ohio 25.4% 87,846 171.8 194.9 29.3% 439,704 112.2 136.2

Oklahoma 39.3% 36,977 183.8 206.1 41.9% 194,199 119.8 148.1

Oregon 20.8% 39,440 298.8 299.0 18.2% 122,457 206.3 226.5

Pennsylvania 23.2% 75,922 195.2 238.2 27.1% 407,451 134.4 167.4

Rhode Island 27.0% 9,288 266.9 261.3 28.0% 36,265 193.5 196.1

South Carolina 34.4% 64,877 221.0 236.1 31.8% 231,233 149.6 172.6

South Dakota 24.3% 7,891 211.5 219.9 27.9% 30,504 143.6 164.2

Tennessee 31.4% 73,232 221.6 245.6 32.0% 290,751 141.7 180.0

Texas 31.7% 272,962 234.0 257.7 29.9% 1,084,598 148.1 188.3

Utah 18.4% 39,103 292.6 290.1 18.9% 115,524 200.9 232.5

Vermont 18.7% 2,774 219.0 236.4 17.7% 12,656 163.2 166.7

Virginia 35.9% 129,289 323.9 322.5 32.7% 445,087 215.0 232.7

Washington 22.4% 86,704 337.5 347.0 20.1% 259,818 226.7 258.1

West Virginia 41.6% 12,168 182.5 189.2 41.7% 56,448 126.0 133.8

Wisconsin 14.7% 32,090 197.8 213.0 16.2% 132,007 133.7 151.7

Wyoming 33.6% 7,485 242.1 248.7 33.2% 26,368 178.3 187.8

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of December 2020. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 

months, from December 2019 to December 2020.

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 24.5 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 24.7 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 11.1 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 45.7 percent in 

Mississippi. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

15
State of the US Housing Market

$11.5

$21.8

$33.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q3

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

16

Debt Household equity Total Value

$0.43

$0.46

$7.30

$3.37

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Q3

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Home Equity loans Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, eMBS and Urban Institute. Last updated December 2020. 

Note Top: Single family includes 1-4 family mortgages. The home equity number is grossed up from Fed totals to include the value of households and 

the non-financial business sector. Note Bottom: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, credit 

unions and other financial companies. 

The Federal Reserve’s Flow of Fund Report has indicated a gradually increasing total value of the housing market, 

driven primarily by growing home equity since 2012. The Q3 2020 numbers show that while mortgage debt 

outstanding remained steady at $11.5 trillion, total home equity grew slightly from $21.5 trillion in Q2 2020 to 

$21.8 trillion in the third quarter of 2020, bringing the total value of the housing market to $33.3 trillion, 30.3 

percent higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Agency MBS account for 63.4 percent of the total mortgage debt 

outstanding, private-label securities make up 3.7 percent, and unsecuritized first liens make up 28.9 percent. 

Home equity loans comprise the remaining 4.0 percent of the total.
State of the US Housing Market

As of December 2020, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $7.53 trillion: 42.5 percent Fannie Mae, 

30.2 percent Freddie Mac, and 27.4 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA 

have grown very rapidly since 2009, although since May 2020, FHA has contracted. FHA comprises 55.7 percent of 

total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 38.5 percent. Note that during the pandemic the GSEs 

have been growing faster than Ginnie Mae, courtesy of borrowers with home prices appreciating moving from FHA 

to conventional refinances and saving on the mortgage insurance premium.

$3.20

$2.06

$2.27

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

17

$1.2

$0.8

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of December 2020.
3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4

4.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Outstanding Volume Share <3.0 3.0-3.49 3.5-4.0 >4.0 Avg Coup Avg. Coup

State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of December 2020. Average coupon is weighted by remaining principal balance. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of December 2020.

As of December 2020, the average coupon on outstanding Ginnie Mae pools was 3.30 percent, declining steadily 

over time. The share of outstanding MBS pools with coupons below 3.0 percent has grown exponentially in 2020 

due to plummeting rates. The bottom chart shows that loans originated since 2019 now comprise a hefty 49.8 

percent of outstanding as older vintages continue to refinance in substantial numbers.

Outstanding Ginnie Balance, by Coupon

Outstanding Ginnie Volume, by Vintage

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18

Pre-2008 2008-2013 2014-2018 2019-Present Outstanding Volume Share
Debt,

$9,833

mortgages,

household

State of the US Housing Market

In December 2020, a total of 785,393 Ginnie Mae loans were in forbearance, 28,202 of which were removed from 

pools (i.e. liquidated) during the month. Most liquidated loans (24,436) were FHA. Forborne loans removed from 

pools in December had measurably higher note rates and lower outstanding loan balances, and were more likely to 

be purchase loans than forborne loans that remain in pools.

All loans in forbearance – December 2020

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share Purchase Share Loan Count

Ginnie 661 4.1 $172,036 77.6% 71.1% 785,393

Bank 676 4.1 $134,498 73.6% 77.0% 113,622

Nonbank 659 4.1 $178,253 78.2% 70.2% 671,771

FHA 657 4.1 $169,529 78.2% 73.2% 584,395

Bank 669 4.2 $124,301 74.7% 79.3% 83,157

Nonbank 656 4.1 $177,185 78.7% 72.3% 501,238

VA 669 3.8 $217,857 69.4% 51.4% 137,719

Bank 687 3.8 $195,232 67.3% 65.7% 23,761

Nonbank 666 3.8 $222,261 69.9% 48.4% 113,958

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020. *Averages weighted by remaining principal balance of loans.

Loans in forbearance and removed from pools – December 2020

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share PurchaseShare Loan Count

Ginnie 664 4.2 $170,000 75.8% 78.0% 28,202

Bank 677 4.2 $137,581 74.4% 81.9% 11,857

Nonbank 658 4.3 $199,000 76.6% 75.7% 16,345

FHA 660 4.3 $168,000 76.4% 79.7% 24,436

Bank 674 4.3 $133,622 75.1% 84.0% 9,482

Nonbank 655 4.3 $196,000 77.2% 77.7% 14,954

VA 686 3.8 $215,000 63.9% 56.9% 2,706

Bank 690 3.9 $188,000 64.6% 64.8% 1,569

Nonbank 682 3.8 $254,000 63.0% 47.0% 1,137

19

Loans in forbearance that remain in pools – December 2020

FICO Score* Note Rate* Current Principal Balance

Median FTHB Share PurchaseShare Loan Count

Ginnie 661 4.1 $172,569 77.6% 70.9% 757,048

Bank 675 4.1 $135,759 73.4% 76.7% 103,321

Nonbank 659 4.1 $178,164 78.3% 70.1% 653,727

FHA 657 4.1 $170,063 78.3% 73.0% 559,830

Bank 669 4.2 $124,960 74.4% 78.9% 75,080

Nonbank 656 4.1 $177,117 78.8% 72.2% 484,750

VA 669 3.8 $218,183 69.5% 51.3% 135,000

Bank 686 3.8 $197,179 67.5% 65.8% 22,235

Nonbank 666 3.8 $222,106 70.0% 48.4% 112,765
State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of December 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

The share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance is higher for nonbank issuers than for bank issuers for two reasons: 

(1) more recent origination is more likely to be forborne and comprises a larger share of the non-bank servicing 

portfolio, and (2) banks have been more aggressive in buying forborne loans out of Ginnie Mae pools. Delinquent 

buyouts by nonbank issuers continue to remain muted relative to total nonbank loans removed from pools, but 

have edged up compared to delinquent buyouts by bank issuers (bottom charts, yellow areas).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

20

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

Bank Issuers

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

Nonbank Issuers

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Bank Forbearance Nonbank Forbearance All Forbearance Forbearance Share

Share of Ginnie Mae Loans in Forbearance
State of the US Housing Market

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of December 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Ginnie Mae delinquent loans bought out of pools are more likely to be FHA than VA (top charts, yellow areas) 

and more likely to be higher coupons (bottom chart). In December 2020, 43,470 FHA and 3,406 VA loans were 

bought out. (These counts include all delinquent buyouts, regardless of forbearance status). Despite the 

increase in buyout activity during the pandemic, the vast majority of loans removed from pools have been 

payoffs triggered by ultra-low rates (blue areas).

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Other Loss Mitigation

Repurchase of Delinquent Loan Mortgagor Payoff

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

FHA

Number of Loans Removed from Pools:

VA

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Number of Loans Removed from Pools by Coupon

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

<3.5 Other

<3.5 Loss Mitigation

<3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

21

<3.5 Mortgagor Payoff

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

>=3.5 Other

>=3.5 Loss Mitigation

>=3.5 Repurchase of Delinquent Loan

>=3.5 Mortgagor Payoff

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.
State of the US Housing Market

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

$4.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume

22

Portfolio PLS securitization FHA/VA securitization GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

First Lien Origination Share

2020 was a record year for first-lien originations with $4.04 trillion in mortgages originated during the year. This 

number exceeds the 2003 volume of $3.73 trillion, the previous record holder, by $315 billion. The share of 

portfolio originations was 21.5 percent in 2020, a substantial decline from the 35.9 percent share in 2019. The 

2020 GSE share was up significantly at 59.2 percent, compared to 42.9 percent in 2019. The FHA/VA share at the 

end of 2020 was 18.4 percent, down one percentage point compared to last year. The PLS share was 0.9 percent in 

2020, down from 1.9 percent one year ago, and a fraction of its share in the pre-bubble years. The smaller share of 

portfolio and PLS in 2020 reflects the impact of COVID-19, which made it difficult to originate mortgages without 

government support. The higher GSE share reflects the large amount of refinances done through this channel.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q4 2020. 

21.5%

0.90%

18.4%

59.2%

$0.869

$0.038

$0.742

$2.390
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgage ,s

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 $266.9 $225.7 $16.0 $508.6

2020 $327.0 $423.5 $24.9 $775.4

2020 % Change YOY 22.5% 87.6% 55.9% 52.5%

 

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 $597.4 $445.2 $1,042.6 $508.6 $1,551.2

2020 $1,343.4 $1,064.1 $2,407.5 $775.4 $3,182.9

2020 % Change YOY 124.9% 139.0% 130.9% 52.5% 105.2%

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of December 2020.

Agency gross issuance in 2020 was historic at $3.18 trillion, surpassing every full year of agency origination in the 

21st century, including the previous high of $2.09 trillion in 2003. 2020 agency issuance finished $1.63 trillion 

dollars higher than 2019 full year volume of $1.55 trillion, up 105.2 percent. Ginnie Mae gross issuance for the 

year was up by 52.5 percent and GSE gross issuance was up by 130.9 percent. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA 

was up by 22.5 percent and VA origination was up by 87.6 percent.

23
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

$9,833

household

mortgages,

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 $35.9 $58.0 $1.9 $95.7

2020 -$52.5 $71.0 $1.3 $19.9

2020 % Change YOY -246.3% 22.5% -27.8% -79.2%

24

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $53.5 $11.8 $65.3 $89.6 $154.9

2014 -$4.0 $30.0 $26.0 $61.6 $87.7

2015 $3.5 $65.0 $68.4 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $60.5 $66.8 $127.4 $126.1 $261.6

2017 $83.7 $77.0 $160.7 $132.3 $293.0

2018 $81.9 $67.6 $149.4 $112.0 $261.5

2019 $87.4 $110.3 $197.8 $95.7 $293.5

2020 $289.3 $343.5 $632.8 $19.9 $652.7

2020 % Change YOY 230.8% 211.4% 220.0% -79.2% 122.4%

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of December 2020.

2020 proved to be very robust for agency net issuance, with $652.7 billion of net new supply, up 122.4 percent 

compared with the same period of 2019. 2020 Ginnie Mae net issuance in 2020 was $19.9 billion, comprising 3.0 

percent of total agency net issuance. This is down substantially from 2019 levels, reflecting a contraction in FHA 

securities outstanding.
US Agency Market, Originations

Deb

 

t,

hold

ges,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

house

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

mortga

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of December 2020.

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates rise, increasing when 

interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the same 

month in previous years. The December 2020 gross agency issuance of $334.4 wrapped up a year of historic 

volume in monthly issuance, significantly higher than the same month in 2019, as lower rates gave borrowers a

stronger incentive to refinance.

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $136.6 $8.5 $10.7 $10.3 $29.5

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $98.1 $2.5 $6.5 $9.4 $18.5

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $95.2 $9.7 $6.2 $9.7 $25.6

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $97.0 $3.3 $0.4 $11.7 $15.4

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $99.3 $7.7 $2.7 $13.3 $23.8

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $110.7 $7.9 $2.4 $13.3 $23.5

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $113.5 $5.6 $3.5 $12.3 $21.5

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $121.1 $12.0 $6.7 $15.4 $34.1

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $115.5 $7.7 $3.8 $10.6 $22.0

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $115.9 $5.5 $12.5 $11.0 $28.9

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $118.5 $3.9 $13.6 $8.3 $25.8

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $111.5 $9.2 $8.1 $7.0 $24.4

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.1 $0.2 $7.7 $20.0

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.3 $2.2 $7.1 $17.6

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $6.3 $14.1

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.0 $8.8 $16.5

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $5.1 $7.2 $10.5 $22.8

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.5 $6.8 $10.3 $19.6

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $10.4 $18.3

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $15.8 $7.9 $12.5 $36.1

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.9 $6.2 $9.0 $21.1

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $9.7 $7.1 $11.4 $28.2

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $3.6 $11.0 $9.8 $24.4

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $8.2 $22.8

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.9 $2.5 $9.2 $17.6

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.4 $3.4 $4.6 $9.3

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.8 $10.3 $5.6 $17.6

Apr-19 $33.1 $30.8 $32.9 $96.8 $1.3 $10.8 $8.3 $20.4

May-19 $44.5 $34.3 $38.8 $117.6 $6.7 $9.8 $9.4 $26.0

Jun-19 $44.6 $34.0 $43.3 $121.9 $1.9 $5.9 $9.0 $16.8

Jul-19 $51.7 $36.9 $45.9 $134.5 $10.9 $10.1 $11.0 $32.0

Aug-19 $71.1 $50.4 $51.2 $172.6 $20.8 $17.1 $8.7 $46.6

Sep-19 $67.1 $43.0 $52.0 $162.1 $14.1 $7.5 $6.5 $28.0

Oct-19 $65.0 $46.2 $58.4 $169.6 $7.4 $7.1 $11.9 $26.5

Nov-19 $68.1 $50.7 $54.3 $173.1 $5.2 $8.6 $4.1 $18.0

Dec-19 $62.1 $52.5 $52.7 $167.3 $10.1 $17.3 $7.4 $34.7

Jan-20 $61.7 $51.4 $56.0 $169.0 $9.1 $16.5 $8.6 $34.2

Feb-20 $56.5 $39.5 $51.2 $147.2 $9.4 $7.9 $7.1 $24.4

Mar-20 $69.5 $41.1 $53.0 $163.9 $17.9 $6.3 $8.8 $33.0

Apr-20 $101.6 $76.3 $61.4 $239.3 $30.5 $27.5 $10.2 $68.2

May-20 $124.3 $70.6 $60.8 $255.7 $35.2 $8.2 $5.7 $49.1

Jun-20 $118.9 $78.1 $58.5 $255.4 $30.0 $15.9 $1.3 $47.2

Jul-20 $125.0 $108.1 $66.5 $299.5 $23.4 $38.0 -$15.5 $45.9

Aug-20 $137.6 $113.6 $73.6 $324.8 $34.2 $43.4 -$4.1 $73.5

Sep-20 $122.9 $102.1 $72.4 $297.5 $16.5 $29.9 $1.0 $47.5

Oct-20 $142.3 $124.8 $72.6 $339.7 $28.9 $48.3 -$0.3 $76.9

Nov-20 $152.4 $131.5 $72.6 $356.5 $31.4 $48.4 -$4.5 $75.3

Dec-20 $130.8 $126.7 $76.9 $334.4 $22.8 $53.1 $1.7 $77.5

Monthly Agency Issuance

25
$41.0

$114.6

$61.9

$15.4 $2.6 $0.2

$4.5

$22.3

$20.8

$6.6 $2.2 $0.9 

$18.5

$35.6

$19.0

$3.4

$0.6 $0.2 

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Streamlined Cash-out Not streamlined, not cash-out

Coupon

$ billions

Ginnie Mae Refinance Issuance by Type: Full Year 2020

US Agency Market, Originations

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of December 2020.

The FHA refinance share stood at 38.5 percent in December 2020, below the 72.0 percent refi share for Freddie 

originations, the 69.8 percent share for Fannie, and the 73.1 percent share for the VA. The total Ginnie refinance 

share stood at 54.8 percent in December. Refinances as a share of all originations grew during 2019 and 2020 as 

interest rates fell. Refinances have declined slightly from their peaks but remain at high levels, as interest rates 

have stabilized at generational lows. The bottom section shows that nearly all of 2020 Ginnie Mae refinances, 

predominantly streamlined, were securitized in lower coupon pools. Cash-out refinances are disproportionately 

securitized in higher coupons, but their volume has fallen sharply due to restrictions Ginnie Mae put in place in late 

2019, to combat the “churning” problem.

26

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Percent Refi at Issuance

Refishare Freddie Fannie Ginnie FHA VA

73%

72%

70%

55%

39%

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of December 2020.
Credit Box

39.4%

44.1%

69.0%

50.5%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Apr-15Aug-15Dec-15Apr-16Aug-16Dec-16Apr-17Aug-17Dec-17 Apr-18Aug-18Dec-18 Apr-19Aug-19Dec-19 Apr-20Aug-20Dec-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 69.0 percent in December 2020, down from 

71.1 percent in December 2019. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of the Ginnie Mae 

purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 44.1 percent and 

39.4 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase originations, respectively. The bottom table shows that 

based on mortgages originated in December 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an 

average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a higher LTV, a similar DTI, and pay a 

similar rate.

27

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 305,134 322,287 264,303 282,194 245,013 299,887 265,734 301,435 

Credit Score 750.4 759.3 744.7 755.1 688.5 705.1 722.0 744.4 

LTV (%) 87.7 80.1 88.0 78.7 96.8 95.8 91.7 83.4 

DTI (%) 34.1 34.9 34.4 35.5 41.5 42.0 37.4 36.8 

Loan Rate (%) 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of December 2020.
Credit Box

76.8%

50.4%

78.7%

69.0%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Apr-15Aug-15Dec-15Apr-16Aug-16Dec-16Apr-17Aug-17Dec-17Apr-18Aug-18Dec-18Apr-19Aug-19Dec-19Apr-20Aug-20Dec-20

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Breakdown

 

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 

2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it 

consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuerreported LTV. Data as of December 2020.

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 76.8 percent of FHA loans, 50.4 percent of VA loans, and 78.7 percent 

of other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in December 2020. The bottom table shows that 

based on mortgages originated in December 2020, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an 

average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a higher LTV, a similar DTI, and pay a 

slightly higher rate.

28

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 237,630 253,186 299,448 358,634 174,011 182,037 245,013 299,887 

Credit Score 678.6 677.4 713.3 731.9 701.1 700.4 688.5 705.1 

LTV (%) 95.5 94.1 99.6 97.0 99.4 99.2 96.8 95.8 

DTI (%) 43.1 43.8 39.5 41.0 34.9 35.5 41.5 42.0 

Loan Rate (%) 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Includes only purchase loans. Data as of December 2020.
t,

rtgages,

house

mortg

$9,833

hold

Deb

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 390,644 657 715 744 782 800 735 

Fannie 149,448 689 732 760 794 803 752 

Freddie 118,822 697 730 765 790 803 757 

Ginnie 122,374 633 654 684 730 774 694 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 756,007 687 727 768 793 806 756 

Fannie 345,399 701 738 773 796 808 763 

Freddie 305,726 698 734 771 794 806 760 

Ginnie 104,882 645 676 723 774 799 722 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,146,651 674 715 761 790 804 749 

Fannie 494,847 697 732 770 794 807 760 

Freddie 424,548 698 733 769 793 806 759 

Ginnie 227,256 639 662 699 754 790 707 

 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 122,374 633 654 684 730 774 694 

FHA 74,844 628 647 671 703 741 678 

VA 36,990 647 676 724 772 797 723 

Other 10,540 645 664 696 735 767 701 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 104,882 645 676 723 774 799 722 

FHA 26,986 626 648 675 705 745 679 

VA 77,066 661 697 745 783 802 737 

Other 830 652 679 714 753 784 715 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 227,256 639 662 699 754 790 707 

FHA 101,830 628 647 672 704 742 678 

VA 114,056 655 689 738 780 801 732 

Other 11,370 646 665 698 737 768 702 

December 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of December 2020.

In December 2020, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 699 versus 770 for Fannie Mae and 769 for Freddie Mac. 

Note that the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 639 for Ginnie Mae, versus 697 for Fannie Mae and 698 for 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 672, VA loans have a median 

FICO score of 738 and other loans have a median FICO score of 698.

29
December 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

old

Debt,

househ

or

$9,833

m rtgages,

Purchase

Number of Loans

LTV

P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 390,987 70.0 80.0 94.6 96.5 99.2 86.8 

Fannie 149,568 64.0 79.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 82.3 

Freddie 118,841 65.0 80.0 82.0 95.0 95.0 82.6 

Ginnie 122,578 93.9 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.5 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 792,167 43.0 56.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 67.6 

Fannie 345,417 40.0 52.0 65.0 75.0 80.0 63.0 

Freddie 305,735 42.0 55.0 67.0 75.0 81.0 64.3 

Ginnie 141,015 66.9 79.9 89.8 96.6 99.7 86.0 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,183,154 47.0 60.0 76.0 90.0 96.5 74.0 

Fannie 494,985 43.0 57.0 72.0 80.0 95.0 68.8 

Freddie 424,576 45.0 59.0 72.0 80.0 92.0 69.4 

Ginnie 263,593 74.9 87.0 96.4 97.8 100.0 90.9 

 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 122,578 93.9 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.5 

FHA 75,002 93.8 95.0 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.2 

VA 37,018 92.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 102.3 98.3 

Other 10,558 96.0 99.4 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.3 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 141,015 66.9 79.9 89.8 96.6 99.7 86.0 

FHA 44,506 74.9 81.4 91.4 96.4 97.8 88.0 

VA 95,645 63.7 77.6 89.0 96.8 100.4 85.1 

Other 864 78.8 88.6 96.1 100.0 101.0 92.5 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 263,593 74.9 87.0 96.4 97.8 100.0 90.9 

FHA 119,508 81.4 92.3 96.5 96.5 96.6 92.5

VA 132,663 67.8 82.0 93.5 100.0 101.4 88.8 

Other 11,422 94.4 99.1 101.0 101.0 101.0 98.8 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of December 2020.

In December 2020, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.4 percent for Ginnie Mae, compared to 72 percent 

for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 100 percent for Ginnie Mae, versus 92 percent for 

Freddie and 95 percent for Fannie. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 93.5 for VA 

and 101.0 for other programs.

30
De

mortgages,

household

$9,833

bt,

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 389,647 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 49.0 36.8 

Fannie 149,560 21.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 46.0 34.8 

Freddie 118,832 21.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 46.0 34.5 

Ginnie 121,255 28.6 35.3 42.4 48.7 53.7 41.6 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 685,851 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 46.0 32.6 

Fannie 345,398 18.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.3 

Freddie 305,719 19.0 25.0 33.0 41.0 45.0 32.5 

Ginnie 34,734 22.5 30.1 37.4 45.9 52.3 37.4 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 1,075,498 20.0 27.0 35.0 42.0 47.0 34.1 

Fannie 494,958 19.0 26.0 34.0 41.0 46.0 33.0 

Freddie 424,551 19.0 26.0 34.0 41.0 45.0 33.0 

Ginnie 155,989 27.1 33.8 41.6 48.3 53.5 40.7 

 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 121,255 28.6 35.3 42.4 48.7 53.7 41.6 

FHA 74,431 30.9 37.7 44.3 49.8 54.3 43.2 

VA 36,287 26.4 33.2 40.8 47.7 53.3 40.3

Other 10,537 25.4 30.4 35.9 40.3 43.3 35.0 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 34,734 22.5 30.1 37.4 45.9 52.3 37.4 

FHA 14,078 27.1 33.3 41.8 48.6 53.7 40.8 

VA 20,183 20.3 27.8 34.7 43.4 50.4 35.3 

Other 473 17.8 23.2 30.8 37.5 41.7 30.4 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 155,989 27.1 33.8 41.6 48.3 53.5 40.7 

FHA 88,509 30.1 37.0 44.0 49.6 54.2 42.9 

VA 56,470 23.9 31.3 38.8 46.5 52.6 38.5 

Other 11,010 24.9 30.1 35.8 40.3 43.3 34.8 

December 2020 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of December 2020.

In December 2020, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 41.6 percent, considerably higher than 

the 34.0 percent median DTI for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 53.5 

percent, also much higher than the 46.0 percent DTI for Fannie Mae and 45.0 percent for Freddie Mac. Within the 

Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 44.0 percent, versus 38.8 percent for VA and 35.8 percent for 

other lending programs.

31
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

769

770

699

761

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Apr-15 Aug-15Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20Dec-20

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

32

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of December 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in December 2020 was 761, up considerably since the 

start of 2019, owing to the refinance wave, which higher FICO borrowers take advantage of with greater 

frequency. In addition, the increases in refinance activity have been much more dramatic at the GSEs than at 

Ginnie Mae, shifting the composition toward higher FICO score borrowers. Note since early 2019, the median 

FICO scores for Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie borrowers have moved up for both purchase and refinance loans, 

although refinance FICOs have started to dip a bit. The difference between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrower 

FICOs is considerably wider for purchase loans than for refi loans.
Credit Box: Historical

96.4

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

The median LTV for Ginnie Mae loans was 96.4 percent in December 2020, much higher than the 72 percent 

LTV for the GSEs. Median debt-to-income ratios for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, 

considerably higher than for the GSEs. DTIs increased in the 2017-2018 period for both Ginnie Mae and GSE 

loans, with the movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are very typical in an environment 

of rising interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies witnessed measurable declines in DTI, 

beginning in early 2019, driven by lower interest rates, with larger declines in GSE securities.

33

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of December 2020.

75.0

72.0

34.0

41.6

35.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI
Credit Box: Historical

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94

FHA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

34

DTI<=45, FICO <=660 DTI <=45, FICO>660

DTI>45, FICO <=660 DTI>45, FICO>660

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94

VA Cumulative Default Rate by DTI and FICO

DTI<=45, FICO <=700 DTI <=45, FICO>700

DTI>45, FICO <=700 DTI>45, FICO>700

Loan age

Cumulative default rate

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of January 2020.

DTI is a much weaker predictor of performance than FICO score. The top chart shows FHA borrowers with higher 

DTIs do default more than those with lower DTIs, but the differences are modest, as evidenced by the fact that the 

black line is very close to the blue line and the grey line is not that much above the yellow line. By contrast, FICO 

makes a much larger difference, as can be seen by comparing the blue line to the yellow line or the black line to the 

gray line. And low DTI/low FICO borrowers default much less than high DTI/high FICO borrowers, as can be seen 

by comparing the blue line to the gray line. The bottom chart, for VA borrowers illustrates the same point; DTI is a 

much weaker predictor of loan performance than credit score.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Defaults = 180 days delinquent. Data as of January 2020.
95%

82%

58%

41%

32%

95%

86%

59%

36%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

35

94%

82%

60%

42%

33%

93%

84%

58%

35%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

November 2018- January 2019 November 2020- January 2021

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

98%

93%

80%

61%

47%

99% 98% 94%

64%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In November 2020- January 

2021, Ginnie Mae accounted for 93 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, 

compared to just 27 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI 

bucket looks a lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In November 2020− January 2021, Ginnie Mae’s share 

of issuance was higher for DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share 

of loans with a DTI of 45 and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 94 percent; it was 58-59 percent for the same 

FICO in the lower DTI buckets. Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear the GSEs have stepped up their 

higher LTV lending for borrowers with FICOs of 700 or higher for DTIs less than 45 (the less than 35 and the 35-

45 buckets).
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

November 2018-January 2019

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

36

< 35 2.8% 4.5% 2.5% 6.5% 8.3% 24.5%

35 −45 5.4% 8.9% 4.7% 11.2% 9.9% 40.3%

≥ 45 5.3% 9.1% 4.6% 9.5% 6.9% 35.3%

All 13.5% 22.5% 11.8% 27.2% 25.1% 100.0%

November 2020-January 2021

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 1.6% 4.6% 3.0% 8.8% 13.3% 31.3%

35 −45 3.0% 8.4% 5.0% 13.0% 12.8% 42.1%

≥ 45 2.5% 7.1% 3.3% 7.7% 6.0% 26.6%

All 7.1% 20.1% 11.2% 29.5% 32.1% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

November 2018- January 2019 70.1% 20.7% 37.0%

November 2020- January 2021 66.7% 8.9% 17.1%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 66.7 percent of its issuances in the November 2020- January 2021 

period having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 8.9 percent for the GSEs. Both the GSEs and Ginnie Mae have 

decreased their high-LTV lending share from November 2018− January 2019, with the GSEs falling more 

dramatically from 20.7 percent. The share of high-LTV agency loans going to highest FICO borrowers (i.e. above 

750) has increased from the November 2018-January 2019 period to the November 2020-January 2021 period, 

as has the share of lower DTI borrowers (below 35).
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of December 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of December 2020.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie

37

Ginnie

92.7%

79.1%

76.9%

73.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

The nonbank origination share has been rising steadily for all three agencies since 2013. The Ginnie Mae 

nonbank share has been consistently higher than the GSEs, standing at 92.7 percent in December 2020, a new 

record high. Fannie and Freddie’s nonbank shares also reached record highs in December, standing at 73.8 

percent and 76.9 percent respectively (note that these numbers can be volatile on a month-to-month basis).

Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all have higher nonbank origination shares for refi activity than for 

purchase activity. Freddie Mac’s nonbank share is the lowest among the three agencies for purchase loans, 

while Fannie Mae’s nonbank share is the lowest for refi loans.
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of December 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of December 2020.

In December 2020, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share rose very slightly to 92.7 percent. The nonbank originator 

share for FHA also rose slightly 93.6 percent in December, up very marginally from the previous month. The 

nonbank originator share for VA was higher than last month at 92.1 percent and the nonbank originator share 

for other loans, which can fluctuate quite a bit month to month, fell to 91.6 percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

38

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

94%

93%

92%
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of December 2020. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of December 2020. 

761

770

758

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

780

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020. 

39

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. FICO scores for loans originated by 

nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, where the differentials between banks and 

non-banks are small, FICO scores for both have increased since early 2014. The sharp rise in bank and non-bank FICOs 

reflects an increase in GSE refinance activity, producing a shift in their business mix toward higher FICO borrowers. 

Within the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank originations are much higher since early 2014 while nonbank 

FICOs are up somewhat less. This reflects both the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks, and increased refi 

activity for higher FICO borrowers.
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

40

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTVs for nonbank and bank originations are comparable, while the median DTI for nonbank loans is higher 

than for bank loans, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in both this and the FICO dimension. Between 

early 2017 and early 2019, there was a substantial increase in DTIs; over the subsequent two years, this has mostly 

reversed in the Ginnie Mae space, and more than completely reversed for the GSEs, leaving GSE DTIs lower than they 

have been at any point in the last 7 years. This is true for both Ginnie Mae and the GSEs, for banks and nonbanks. As 

interest rates increased, DTIs rose, because borrower payments were driven up relative to incomes. With the fall in 

interest rates in 2019 and 2020, DTIs have dropped.
650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of December 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of December 2020.

The median FICO score for Ginnie Mae nonbank originators increased slightly in December 2020. Bank FICOs 

are 15 points above non-banks. The gap between banks and non-banks is very apparent for all categories of 

government lending.

41

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of December 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of December 2020.
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of December 2020.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of December 2020.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA borrowers experienced notable increases during 2017 and 2018 

for both banks and nonbank originators, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are 

expected in a rising rate environment. After peaking in January 2019, Ginnie DTIs have reverted to 2017 levels, 

as rates have declined.

42

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of December 2020. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of December 2020.
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

43

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Lakeview $193,319 12.2% 12.2%

2 PennyMac $178,930 11.3% 23.6%

3 Wells Fargo $155,017 9.8% 33.4%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $145,678 9.2% 42.6%

5 Nationstar $97,684 5.2% 47.8%

6 Quicken Loans $65,525 4.2% 52.0%

7 Newrez $47,681 3.0% 55.0%

8 US Bank $45,382 2.9% 57.9%

9 Carrington Mortgage $40,390 2.6% 60.4%

10 USAA Federal Savings Bank $37,133 2.4% 62.8%

11 Caliber Home Loans $36,166 2.3% 65.1%

12 Truist Bank $27,044 1.7% 66.8%

13 Navy Federal Credit Union $26,903 1.7% 68.5%

14 Amerihome Mortgage $24,754 1.6% 70.0%

15 Home Point Financial Corporation $21,806 1.4% 71.4%

16 The Money Source $20,571 1.3% 72.7%

17 United WholeSale Mortgage $19,790 1.3% 74.0%

18 Loan Depot $19,367 1.2% 75.2%

19 Guild Mortgage $15,923 1.0% 76.2%

20 Midfirst Bank $15,772 1.0% 77.2%

21 JP Morgan Chase $15,762 1.0% 78.2%

22 Citizens Bank $13,299 0.8% 79.1%

23 Planet Home Lending $13,288 0.8% 79.9%

24 M&T Bank $12,932 0.8% 80.7%

25 PHH Mortgage Corporation $12,317 0.8% 81.5%

26 Flagstar Bank $12,255 0.8% 82.3%

27 New American Funding $9,252 0.6% 82.9%

28 Idaho Housing and Finance Association $8,886 0.6% 83.4%

29 Bank of America $8,665 0.5% 84.0%

30 PNC Bank $8,424 0.5% 84.5%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of December 2020, over half (52.0 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 

firms collectively own 84.5 percent. Eighteen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 12 are depository 

institutions.
76.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In December 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. In December 2020, Wells Fargo’s holdings of MSRs dipped to $155.0 

billion, below the $193.3 and $178.9 billion held by Lakeview and PennyMac, respectively (both nonbanks). 

Freedom Home Mortgage and Nationstar (also both nonbanks) make up the remainder of the top five largest 

holders of MSRs, owning $145.7 billion and $82.0 billion respectively as of December 2020. Nonbanks collectively 

owned servicing rights for 76.6 percent of all outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by Ginnie Mae in 

December 2020. In December 2013, the nonbank share was much smaller at 27.7 percent.

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$193,319

$178,930

$155,017

$145,678

$81,969

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

44

1. Lakeview 2. PennyMac

3. Wells Fargo 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

UPB ($ millions) 5. Nationstar
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Jan-20

May-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2012 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2012 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

While prepayment speeds on all securities have risen since early 2019, the speed increase has been especially 

dramatic in 2020, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly due to a sharp drop in rates. At 

this point, the speeds on GSE securities have largely converged with those on Ginnie II securities, as the former 

have ramped up more quickly in 2020. The faster Ginnie speeds from 2013-early 2020 reflected the growing 

share of VA loans, which tend to prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA puts fewer 

restrictions on streamlined refinances, and some of the upfront mortgage insurance premium can also be applied 

to the refinanced loan.

33%

32%

27%

45

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

41%

40%

40%

26%
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

46

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Speeds on the 2015 3.5s and the 2016 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have been 

increasing since early 2019; the speed increases have been especially dramatic in 2020 due to a sharp drop in 

rates, with speeds on both Ginnie II and GSE securities rising rapidly. The speeds on the 2015-issued Ginnie 3.5s 

have been slightly lower than their conventional counterparts since August 2020, although the speeds on the 

2016-issued Ginnie Mae 3.0s remain very comparable to their conventional counterparts. The faster historical 

speeds on the Ginnie Mae cohorts reflect the fact that 2015 and 2016 Ginnie originations consist of a large 

component of VA loans, which prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. The FHA streamlined programs are 

likely another contributor to the historically faster speeds.

41%

40%

39%

36%
Prepayments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

47

Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

The charts below show the behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-issued 4.0s, the largest coupon 

cohorts of those vintage years. Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s were prepaying faster than their 

conventional counterparts from late 2017 to March 2020, due primarily to fast VA prepayment speeds. 

Similarly, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s prepaid more slowly than their conventional counterparts until January of 

2019. In 2019, speeds of 2018 4.0s and 2017 3.5s accelerated, and Ginnie II speeds accelerated more than 

their conventional counterparts. However, in early 2020 conventional speeds accelerated more than Ginnie

speeds. Since March 2020, conventional speeds have exceeded those of the Ginnie cohorts, although the 

difference between the two has narrowed in the last two months.

45%

42% 

48%

46%
Prepayments 

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2019 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

48

Fannie 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2019 3.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of January 2021.

The charts below show prepayment speeds by loan age for 2019 and 2020 Ginnie II 3.0s. Prepayment speeds on 

both cohorts jumped at the 8-10 month loan age, a more muted jump than earlier cohorts at the same age; they 

then began to converge with conventional speeds more quickly, as a result of Ginnie Mae actions to curtail the 

“churning” problem. These actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA speeds are especially 

high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling requirements so that if 

loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is ineligible for securitization. 

Ginnie’s latest action on this front became effective for securities issued on or after November 1, 2019. It bars 

the securitization of over 90 percent LTV cash-out refinances into Ginnie I and Ginnie II pools (custom pools 

excepted). In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the lender to show that the 

borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance. The recent experience of these cohorts indicates that, as a 

result of these cumulative actions plus the acceleration of speeds in the conventional market in response to 

lower rates, Ginnie Mae speeds on 2019-issued 3.0s have been running below their conventional counterparts 

17 month loan age onwards. 2020 Ginnie II 3.0s show a similar increase in speeds at the 9-10 month mark, 

pushing it well above conventional speeds, but the gaps are narrowing by months 11 and 12.

63.1%

60.9%

53.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2020 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2020 3.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

59.5%

49.0%

45.7%
Reverse and Multifamily Mortgages

$1.21

$4.9

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

$ Billions

Issuance Volume

HMBS Issuance Multifamily MBS Issuance

$56.0

$128.2

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Jun-13

Aug-13

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Jun-14

Aug-14

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

$ Billions

Outstanding Volume

HMBS Oustanding Multifamily MBS Oustanding

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile over the past two years. After declining in 2018, volume 

has slowly improved over the course of 2019 and 2020. In December 2020, issuance grew to $1.21 billion. 

Outstanding reverse mortgage securities totaled $56.0 billion in December 2020, up slightly from the previous 

month, reflecting a higher volume of new issuances relative to paydowns. After falling slightly in November, 

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance grew in December 2020 to $4.9 billion. Outstanding multifamily securities 

totaled $128.2 billion at the conclusion of 2020.

49
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Updated February 2020.

$290 

$607 

$39 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

50

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

4.05%

3.20%

0.40% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume was $290 billion per day on average in 2020, more robust than in the 2014-2019 

period, but still below the pre-crisis peak of $345 billion in 2008. Average daily trading volume for Treasuries 

now exceeds the pre-crisis peak. Agency MBS turnover in 2020 was also higher than the 2014-2019 period; in 

2020, average daily MBS turnover was 4.08 percent, above the 2019 average of 3.67 percent. Note that agency 

MBS turnover in 2020 was higher than US Treasury turnover, a rare occurrence. Both average daily mortgage 

and Treasury turnover are down from their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either 

Agency MBS or Treasury turnover.

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Updated February 2020.
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008Q3 2009Q3 2010Q3 2011Q3 2012Q3 2013Q3 2014Q3 2015Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The “other” category includes primarily life insurance companies, state and 

local govts, households, and nonprofits. Data as of Q3 2020.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (21 

percent), commercial banks (22 percent), foreign investors (12 percent), and money market & pension funds (11 

percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares are a fraction of what they once were. The Federal Reserve’s share 

increased from 15 percent in the first quarter of 2020 to 21 percent in the third quarter due to substantial 

purchases of MBS in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Despite large Federal Reserve purchases, commercial 

banks continue to be the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $2.6 trillion in holdings as of the end of 

January 2020, $1.9 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

51

` Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Dec-19 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Dec 30 Jan 06 Jan 13 Jan 20

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1497.0 1613.5 1649.0 1703.9 1693.5 1740.8 1797.8 1829.1 1853.2 1875.4 1860.1 1863.7

Small Domestic 

Banks 542.0 569.6 577.5 588.8 599.2 611.0 626.8 644.7 645.6 655.4 661.4 666.3

Foreign Related 

Banks 37.7 43.7 43.4 41.7 40.2 39.3 45.3 46.9 46.9 47.9 48.5 47.6

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 2076.7 2226.8 2269.9 2334.4 2332.9 2391.1 2469.9 2520.7 2545.7 2578.7 2570.0 2577.6

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Small domestic banks includes all domestically chartered commercial banks not 

included in the top 25. Data as of January 2020.

Commercial bank holdings of agency MBS
MBS Ownership

house old

mortgages,

Debt,

h l

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank Of America Corporation $395,969.0 $256,271.0 $127,087.0 $12,327.0 $284.0 17.10

2 Wells Fargo & Company $254,767.0 $181,758.0 $65,210.0 $7,244.0 $555.0 11.00

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $196,629.0 $118,144.0 $62,066.0 $202.0 $16,217.0 8.50

4 Charles Schwab Bank $142,727.0 $78,139.0 $16,680.0 $47,908.0 $0.0 6.20

5 U.S. Bancorp. $98,302.0 $66,924.5 $16,077.8 $15,299.2 $0.5 4.30

6 Citigroup Inc. $81,852.0 $72,727.0 $2,201.0 $5,244.0 $1,680.0 3.50

7 Truist Bank $78,975.0 $31,335.0 $17,222.0 $30,418.0 $0.0 3.40

8 Capital One Financial Corporation $76,011.5 $40,069.0 $10,906.5 $24,390.1 $645.9 3.30

9 Bank Of New York Mellon Corp. $64,932.0 $46,335.0 $3,742.0 $12,843.0 $2,012.0 2.80

10 PNC Bank, National Association $54,529.5 $45,555.4 $5,647.3 $1,724.0 $1,602.7 2.40

11 State Street Bank And Trust Company $47,135.4 $22,085.0 $7,813.0 $14,870.4 $2,367.0 2.00

12 Morgan Stanley $34,185.0 $20,304.0 $5,100.0 $8,781.0 $0.0 1.50

13 USAA Federal Savings Bank $30,027.0 $24,676.1 $2,679.4 $2,671.6 $0.0 1.30

14 TD Bank $27,154.6 $1,772.7 $151.0 $25,134.4 $96.5 1.20

15 HSBC Bank Usa, National Association $26,482.1 $6,951.0 $10,655.6 $8,873.4 $2.2 1.10

16 E*TRADE Bank $25,672.8 $14,338.2 $3861.9 $7,472.6 $0.0 1.10

17 Silicon Valley Bank $24,800.4 $15,257.0 $143.2 $9,400.2 $0.0 1.10

18 Ally Bank $23,949.0 $16,658.0 $1488.0 $2,820.0 $2983.0 1.00

19 BMO Harris Bank National Association $19,964.2 $5,101.8 $533.3 $14329.0 $0.0 0.90

20 KeyBank National Association $19,812.6 $1,126.0 $524.7 $18,162.0 $0.0 0.90

Total Top 20 $1,723,877 $1,065,528 $359,790 $270,114 $28,446 74.60%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2020.

Out of the $2.3 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q3 2020, $1.8 trillion was agency pass-throughs: 

$1.3 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $415 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $500 billion was agency 

CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $46 billion. In Q3 2020, MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for 

the ninth consecutive quarter. The increase was driven by both GSE pass-throughs and agency CMO holdings, with 

the increase in GSE pass-throughs making the larger contribution.

52

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63

2016 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69 

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,385.10 $1,001.61 $383.49 $422.18 $3.06 $34.65

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,445.91 $1,037.93 $407.97 $421.56 $2.90 $36.76

3Q19 $1,975.78 $1,506.92 $1,079.82 $427.10 $428.69 $4.74 $35.44

4Q19 $1,985.38 $1,516.26 $1,089.41 $426.85 $428.99 $4.62 $35.52

1Q20 $2,107.66 $1,621.00 $1,173.36 $448.34 $443.73 $4.65 $37.56

2Q20 $2,195.19 $1,669.93 $1,228.87 $441.06 $478.11 $5.00 $42.14

3Q20 $2,310.42 $1,764.72 $1,349.48 $415.24 $499.50 $4.43 $41.78

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings
Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of October 2020.

14.9%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

MBS Ownership

$1,102.1

$471.3

$630.8

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Oct-14

Dec-14

Feb-15

Apr-15

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Aug-16

Oct-16

Dec-16

Feb-17

Apr-17

Jun-17

Aug-17

Oct-17

Dec-17

Feb-18

Apr-18

Jun-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Dec-18

Feb-19

Apr-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

53

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2020. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Foreign investors held 14.9 percent of agency MBS in October 2020, up from a low of 12.0 percent in July 2014, 

but down from 17.0 percent in spring 2020. For the month of October 2020, this represents $1.10 trillion in 

Agency MBS, $471 billion held by foreign private institutions and $630 billion held by foreign institutions. This 

represents a $91.6 billion drop in Agency MBS from the peak in spring 2020, all in official holdings.
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of October 2020.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise just under 70 

percent of all foreign holdings. Between June 2019 and October 2020, we estimate that Japan has increased 

their agency MBS holdings by $6.18 billion, Taiwan has decreased their holdings by $2.47 billion and China has 

decreased their holdings by $14.38 billion. All three countries have experienced declines since March of 2020; 

the declines in Chinese holdings have been especially dramatic, we estimate Chinese holdings of MBS are down 

by close to 20 percent from April through October of 2020.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020

Q3

2020 Oct-20

Japan 297,016 311,047 305,332 322,155 310,268 305,064 303,329 14,031 -5,715 16,823 -11,887 -5,204 -1,735

Taiwan 265,524 263,018 261,740 269,133 267,918 264,270 262,990 -2,506 -1,278 7,393 -1,215 -3,648 -1,280

China 227,357 233,783 231,753 260,479 239,045 206,861 211,545 6,426 -2,030 28,726 -21,434 -32,184 4,684

Luxembourg 47,646 46,641 39,015 36,789 42,389 35,626 33,896 -1,005 -7,626 -2,226 5,600 -6,763 -1,730

Ireland 45,829 41,367 38,731 26,131 29,399 28,286 27,433 -4,462 -2,636 -12,600 3,268 -1,113 -853

South Korea 42,879 41,485 40,810 40,964 38,891 40,303 40,706 -1,394 -675 154 -2,073 1,412 403

Cayman Islands 34,967 29,540 31,827 27,154 34,564 34,495 35,626 -5,427 2,287 -4,673 7,410 -69 1,131

Bermuda 29,365 29,184 33,897 27,790 27,790 35,751 28,345 -181 4,713 -6,107 0 7,961 -7,406

Netherlands 14,074 10,549 10,902 10,886 13,255 10,964 12,102 -3,525 353 -16 2,369 -2,291 1,138

Malaysia 12,167 15,585 16,600 21,399 20,390 19,808 19,750 3,418 1,015 4,799 -1,009 -582 -58

Rest of world 128,142 135,515 152,489 202,143 201,165 196,246 195,259 7,373 16,974 49,654 -978 -4,919 -987

Total 1,144,971 1,157,714 1,163,096 1,245,023 1,225,074 1,171,603 1,170,981 12,743 5,382 81,927 -19,949 -53,471 -622

54

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Oct-20

Q3 

2019

Q4 

2019

Q1 

2020

Q2 

2020

Q3

2020 Oct-20

Japan 293,662 307,738 302,212 319,241 306,963 301,622 299,839 14,076 -5,526 16,823 -12,278 -5,341 -1,783

Taiwan 265,234 262,732 261,470 268,881 267,700 264,043 262,760 -2,502 -1,262 7,393 -1,181 -3,657 -1,283

China 221,738 228,240 226,526 255,596 235,078 202,730 207,356 6,502 -1,714 28,726 -20,518 -32,348 4,626

Luxembourg 43,978 43,023 35,603 33,602 40,207 33,354 31,592 -955 -7,420 -2,226 6,605 -6,853 -1,762

Ireland 37,674 33,322 31,145 19,045 21,091 19,635 18,660 -4,352 -2,177 -12,600 2,047 -1,457 -974

South Korea 34,969 33,682 33,452 34,091 28,743 29,736 29,990 -1,287 -230 154 -5,347 992 255

Cayman Islands 29,896 24,538 27,110 22,748 28,431 29,364 29,150 -5,358 2,572 -4,673 5,684 933 -214

Bermuda 26,394 26,253 31,133 25,208 25,111 25,635 25,516 -141 4,880 -6,107 -97 523 -118

Netherlands 13,904 10,381 10,744 10,738 12,739 10,427 11,557 -3,523 363 -16 2,001 -2,312 1,130

Malaysia 11,881 15,303 16,334 21,150 20,028 19,432 19,368 3,422 1,031 4,799 -1,122 -597 -63

Rest of world 97,585 105,371 124,063 175,591 173,716 167,661 166,274 7,786 18,692 49,654 -1,874 -6,055 -1,387

Total 1,076,916 1,090,579 1,099,788 1,185,887 1,159,808 1,103,636 1,102,062 13,663 9,209 81,927 -26,079 -56,172 -1,574
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Apr-10

Aug-10

Dec-10

Apr-11

Aug-11

Dec-11

Apr-12

Aug-12

Dec-12

Apr-13

Aug-13

Dec-13

Apr-14

Aug-14

Dec-14

Apr-15

Aug-15

Dec-15

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of December 2020.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of December2020.

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19

Jun-20

Dec-20

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

On March 23, 2020, in response to the market dislocations caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed 

announced they would purchase Treasuries and agency MBS in an amount necessary to support smooth 

functioning markets. In March the Fed bought $292.2 billion in agency MBS, and April clocked in at $295.1 billion, 

the largest two months of mortgage purchases ever; and well over 100 percent of gross issuance for each of those 

two months. After the market stabilized, the Fed slowed its purchases to around $100 billion per month in May 

through August of 2020. Recently, Fed purchases have ramped up again slightly; purchases totaled $124.9 billion 

in December 2020. December Fed purchases totaled 37 percent of monthly issuance. As of December 2020, total 

agency MBS owned by the Fed equaled $2.07 trillion. Prior to the COVID-19 intervention, the Fed was winding 

down its MBS portfolio from its 2014 previous peak.
Disclosures:

All the information contained in this document is as of date indicated unless otherwise noted. The 

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All 

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The 

views expressed in this material are the views of the staff of the Urban Institute's Housing Finance Policy 

Center and State Street Global Advisors as of February 18th, 2021 and are subject to change based on 

market and other conditions. The views should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its 

funders. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. 

Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or 

developments may differ materially from those projected.

© 2021 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. 

Tracking Code: 3451017.2.1.AM.INST 

Expiration Date: 2/28/2022