Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 5

Global 10-year treasury yields 6

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 7-9

MBS yield per duration 10

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 11 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 12

National HPI, HPI by state 12-13

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 14

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 15

Outstanding Agency MBS 16

Origination volume over time 17

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 18-20

Purchase versus refi: Percent Refi at Issuance 21

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 22-23

FICO score distribution 24

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 25-27

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 28-30

High LTV credit box 31-32

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 33

Ginnie Mae nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 34

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 35-36

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae breakdown (FICO, LTV, DTI) 37-39

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 40-41

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 41

Prepayments 

Aggregate 42

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 43-45

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 46

Multifamily 47

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 48

Dealer net positions, repo volume 49

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 50

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 51

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 52

Foreign ownership of MBS 53-54

Fed Ownership of MBS 55

CONTENTS
Who does Ginnie Mae serve? Evidence from latest data.

In August, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) announced the release of the 2018 Home 

Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. The HMDA dataset includes a wide variety of borrower, loan and 

product information for residential loans originated during the 2018 calendar year. One especially useful data 

point available in HMDA is borrower annual household income. This data allows us to compare the income 

distribution of borrowers served by Ginnie Mae to those served by the GSEs.

Figure 1 shows the 2018 household income distribution for three borrower populations: 

i. Government borrowers: those who obtained a Federal Housing Administration (FHA), Veteran Affairs (VA) 

or a US Department of Agriculture Rural Housing (USDA/RHS) loan (Collectively Ginnie Mae borrowers);

ii. Conventional borrowers: those who obtained mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, held 

privately in bank portfolios, securitized as private-label, or owned by other private investors; and

iii. All borrowers: Government and Conventional borrowers combined.

Figure 1: Distribution of 2018 Borrower Household Income: Conventional, Ginnie Mae, and All Borrowers

Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 2018.

The graph demonstrates the significant differences between the government and conventional borrower base. In 

2018, over half (54 percent) of Ginnie Mae borrowers (yellow line) had annual incomes at or under $70,000 

compared to 34 percent for conventional loans (black line); about 28 percent of Ginnie Mae borrowers had 

annual incomes under $50,000 compared to 18 percent for conventional. When we look at the blue bars, which 

represent all 2018 borrowers reported by HMDA, only 40 percent had annual incomes up to $70,000, and only 

20 percent had incomes up to $50,000. This shows that incomes of Ginnie Mae borrowers are much more 

concentrated in the low-to-moderate end of the income spectrum than conventional lending. In addition, as 

shown on page 27 of this publication, FICO scores of Ginnie Mae borrowers tend to be lower, while, as shown on 

page 30, debt-to-income ratios tend to be higher than those of borrowers who obtain conventional financing 

through Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Ginnie Mae thus serves as the vehicle through which low- and moderateincome borrowers obtain home financing.

HIGHLIGHTS

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

All borrowers Conventional borrowers Ginnie Mae borrowers

Borrower household income

Share of borrowers
Further insights can be gleaned from HMDA data by analyzing income distributions of FHA, VA and 

USDA borrowers separately. This is shown in Figure 2 along with the income distribution for all 

borrowers. The USDA serves a much higher proportion of lower income households than FHA or VA. In 

2018, about 85 percent of USDA borrowers had annual incomes at or below $70,000 and half had 

incomes up to $50,000. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the 2018 median income was around 

$63,000. Thus, more than half of USDA’s 2018 lending was to households earning less than the US 

median household income.

Figure 2: Distribution of 2018 Borrower Household Income: FHA, VA, and USDA vs. All Borrowers

Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 2018.

The incomes of 2018 FHA borrowers were higher than those of USDA borrowers but still skewed toward 

the lower end of the spectrum. About a third of FHA borrowers had incomes up to $50,000 and about 60 

percent had incomes up to $70,000, in comparison to 20 and 43 percent respectively for VA borrowers. 

This income distribution of VA borrowers resembles the distribution of all borrowers much more than 

FHA or USDA, likely reflecting the positive impact of a stable job, steady income and other benefits 

provided by the VA.

Investors can assess Ginnie Mae MBS pool compositions of FHA, VA, and Rural Housing concentration 

using our Pool SEARCH function at GinnieMae.gov. 

Highlights this month:

• After slowing from 6.5% in spring of 2018 to 3.5% in spring of 2019, annual house price appreciation 

resumed its upward trend, touching 3.8% in August 2019 (page 12).

• First lien originations totaled $1.62 trillion through the first three quarters of 2019, up from $1.26 

trillion at the same point in 2018 (page 17).

• In September 2019, over a third of FHA’s and half of VA’s originations were refinance loans, the 

highest levels since early 2017, driven by continued low mortgage rates (page 21).

• Amidst a strong refinance wave, which higher FICO borrowers take advantage of with greater 

frequency, agency FICO scores have risen considerably (page 28).

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

All borrowers VA borrowers

FHA borrowers USDA/RHS borrowers

Borrower household income

Share of borrowers

HIGHLIGHTS
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 27 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index- less 

than either the US Treasury share (40 percent) or the US Credit share (30 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

comprises the largest percent of US MBS (9 percent), while Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie Mac 30-year MBS 

comprise 8 percent and 6 percent of the market, respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the 

remaining balance (3 percent) of the US MBS share. US securities are the single largest contributor to the Barclays 

Global Aggregate, accounting for 40 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 11 percent of the global 

aggregate. 

40%

1%

30%

8%

9%

6%

3% 2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

6%

25%

11%

1%

2%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

1% 3%

1%

40%

30%

21%

1%

0.04% 2% 0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of September 2019.

Note: Numbers in chart may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of September 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of September 2019.

5
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2019.

With weakness in recent economic data and worries about tariffs and trade wars, yields on government bonds 

have dropped across the globe over the course of 2019. The yield on the US 10-year treasury increased 3 bps in 

October to 1.69 percent, however, it is down 93 bps YTD. Despite being down on the year, US treasury yield 

remained the highest in the developed world. This is followed by yields on the Italian 10-year note, down 22 

basis points in October to 0.82 percent, the UK 10-year bond, up 14 bps to 0.63 percent, German 10 year, up 16 

bps to -0.41 percent, and the Japanese 10 year government bond, which rose by 8 basis points to -0.13 percent 

over the course of October. At the end of October, the hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury 

and the 10-year JGB stood at -63 bps, an increase of 37 bps since September. The hedged yield differential 

between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year Bund stands at -45 bps, an increase of 26 bps since the end of 

September. 

Yield(%)Yield(%)

6
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Nominal yields were largely unchanged in October 2019, with GNMA II yields marginally lower and GNMA I 

yields marginally higher. Current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyield their Treasury counterparts (relative 

to the average of 5- and 10-year Treasury yields) by 65 and 73 bps on G2SF and GNSF, respectively, a 

tightening of 14 and 8 bps since last month. 

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

7
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2019.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Japanese Yen, they look fair on a yield basis versus the JGB 5/10 blend. 

More precisely, the G2SF hedged into Japanese yen has a yield of 1 bp versus the JGB 5/10 blend, while the GNSF 

hedged into Japanese yen has a yield of 9 bps versus the JGB 5/10 spread. This represents a increase of 29 and 34 

bps. respectively, since the end of September.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

8
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of October 2019.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into Euros, they look favorable on a yield basis versus the German 5/10 

Blend. The figures below show that at the end of October, the current coupon G2SF has a 24 bp higher yield than 

the average of the German 5/10 blend, while the GNSF hedged into euros has a spread to the German 5/10 

blend of 32 bps. This represents a 19 and 25 bp increase, respectively, since the end of September. 

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

9
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of October 2019.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most securities with the same or longer durations. The only 

asset class with significantly more yield is the US high yield index. Duration, a measure of sensitivity to interest 

rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield asset classes, as there is a large credit 

component. 

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.8 1.52

US 10y 9.0 1.69

GNMA II 3.0% 4.4 2.48

GNMA II 3.5% 2.9 2.50

JPY 5y 5.0 -0.27

JPY 10y 10.0 -0.14

GER 5y 5.0 -0.63

GER 10y 9.8 -0.41

ITA 5y 4.5 0.31

ITA 10y 8.5 0.92

US credit 7.7 2.78

US credit >= A 7.4 2.41

US HY 3.2 5.70

Pan-Euro Corp 5.8 0.72

Pan-Euro HY 3.3 3.87

US 5y US 10y

G2 3.5%

G2 3.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration

10
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.59 0.84 1.03 0.58 0.53 0.45

3 year 0.18 0.19 0.37 0.19 0.50 0.39

5 year 0.21 0.24 0.39 0.24 0.45 0.37

10 year 0.26 0.26 0.46 0.42 0.65 0.69

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.41 0.66 0.85 0.63 0.35 0.51

3 year 0.05 0.06 0.25 0.25 0.37 0.45

5 year 0.13 0.16 0.31 0.29 0.37 0.42

10 year 0.22 0.21 0.42 0.44 0.61 0.71

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.73 1.34 1.42 0.83 1.85 1.52

3 year 0.67 1.12 1.19 0.78 1.19 1.05

5 year 0.58 1.06 1.18 0.98 1.54 1.34

10 year 0.68 1.05 1.19 1.14 1.69 1.69

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.57 0.49 0.60 0.76 0.19 0.33

3 year 0.07 0.06 0.21 0.32 0.31 0.43

5 year 0.22 0.15 0.26 0.30 0.24 0.31

10 year 0.32 0.20 0.35 0.38 0.36 0.42

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of September 2019.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade is equal to the US Treasury index. However, the 

standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least price volatility over a 1, 

3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of risk over the 10-year horizon is 

only marginally lower than most of the corporate indices, although a good bit higher than the US Treasury Index.

11
State of the US Housing Market

5.2%

3.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Aug-00

Feb-01

Aug-01

Feb-02

Aug-02

Feb-03

Aug-03

Feb-04

Aug-04

Feb-05

Aug-05

Feb-06

Aug-06

Feb-07

Aug-07

Feb-08

Aug-08

Feb-09

Aug-09

Feb-10

Aug-10

Feb-11

Aug-11

Feb-12

Aug-12

Feb-13

Aug-13

Feb-14

Aug-14

Feb-15

Aug-15

Feb-16

Aug-16

Feb-17

Aug-17

Feb-18

Aug-18

Feb-19

Aug-19

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Black Knight HPI year-over-year Zillow HVI year-over-year

Sources: Black Knight, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of August 2019.

0.70%

0.63%

3.43%

1.81%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4Q053Q062Q071Q084Q083Q092Q101Q114Q113Q122Q131Q144Q143Q152Q161Q174Q173Q182Q19

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q2 2019.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquencies rates for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans, and VA loans continued to decline in Q2 2019. 

GSE delinquencies remain slightly higher relative to 2006-2007, while FHA and VA delinquencies (which are higher 

than their GSE counterparts) are well below 2006-2007 levels. After slowing appreciably from 6.5 percent in early 

2018 to 3.4 percent in April 2019, home price appreciation, as measured by Black Knight, has resumed its upward 

trend. The Zillow indices, which tend to lag, do not yet reflect this uptick.

12
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of August 2019. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when 

HPI reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to 

the lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 08/2019, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 54.5 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis 

peak valuation on a nominal basis by 15.2 percent. The picture is very different across states, with many states well in 

excess of the prior peak, while a few states remain 9 percent or more below peak levels: Connecticut (11.8% below), 

Maryland (9.0% below), Nevada (9.5% below), and Florida (9.6% below).

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY Current HPI % Above Peak

National 75.5% -25.5% 54.5% 3.8% 15.2%

Alabama 43.9% -14.9% 32.2% 6.2% 12.5%

Alaska 69.6% -3.1% 24.1% 2.5% 20.3%

Arizona 110.1% -47.9% 81.7% 6.0% -5.4%

Arkansas 41.6% -10.4% 26.3% 3.8% 13.2%

California 155.1% -43.3% 90.0% 1.7% 7.7%

Colorado 40.3% -12.8% 80.4% 4.4% 57.3%

Connecticut 92.4% -24.6% 16.9% 2.6% -11.8%

Delaware 95.2% -23.8% 28.2% 2.1% -2.3%

District of Columbia 175.4% -13.6% 53.6% 1.3% 32.7%

Florida 129.0% -47.0% 70.6% 3.6% -9.6%

Georgia 38.2% -31.9% 66.8% 5.6% 13.6%

Hawaii 161.5% -22.3% 51.3% 2.6% 17.5%

Idaho 71.8% -28.6% 85.2% 10.9% 32.2%

Illinois 61.6% -34.5% 41.1% 2.4% -7.6%

Indiana 21.2% -7.7% 37.3% 6.3% 26.7%

Iowa 28.4% -4.8% 29.1% 4.3% 22.8%

Kansas 34.7% -9.2% 42.2% 5.6% 29.1%

Kentucky 29.5% -7.7% 31.8% 4.5% 21.7%

Louisiana 48.7% -5.0% 23.5% 2.7% 17.3%

Maine 82.1% -12.5% 37.8% 5.3% 20.6%

Maryland 129.3% -28.6% 27.5% 1.6% -9.0%

Massachusetts 92.5% -22.8% 56.2% 3.9% 20.6%

Michigan 24.1% -39.6% 78.8% 4.4% 8.0%

Minnesota 66.4% -27.7% 57.4% 4.6% 13.9%

Mississippi 41.1% -13.7% 26.6% 2.9% 9.3%

Missouri 42.8% -14.8% 38.3% 8.7% 17.9%

Montana 80.8% -10.9% 53.3% 6.0% 36.6%

Nebraska 26.6% -6.6% 43.0% 4.5% 33.5%

Nevada 127.0% -59.2% 121.9% 2.6% -9.5%

New Hampshire 90.6% -23.6% 43.6% 5.6% 9.7%

New Jersey 117.9% -27.8% 28.7% 2.7% -7.2%

New Mexico 67.0% -16.2% 24.4% 5.4% 4.3%

New York 98.4% -15.1% 42.8% 3.6% 21.2%

North Carolina 40.6% -15.7% 37.3% 5.2% 15.8%

North Dakota 54.0% -3.8% 55.3% 1.7% 49.5%

Ohio 21.2% -18.4% 37.8% 5.2% 12.5%

Oklahoma 37.4% -2.4% 19.4% 3.1% 16.5%

Oregon 82.4% -28.0% 80.2% 4.3% 29.7%

Pennsylvania 70.1% -11.6% 26.4% 4.0% 11.7%

Rhode Island 130.9% -34.5% 51.9% 4.9% -0.4%

South Carolina 44.7% -19.2% 35.5% 4.3% 9.5%

South Dakota 45.0% -3.9% 47.1% 3.9% 41.3%

Tennessee 35.2% -11.8% 46.2% 6.5% 28.9%

Texas 33.3% -5.7% 50.9% 2.8% 42.3%

Utah 54.6% -21.8% 74.7% 6.4% 36.6%

Vermont 83.5% -7.5% 34.4% 6.1% 24.3%

Virginia 99.5% -22.7% 28.0% 4.1% -1.1%

Washington 85.4% -28.7% 87.1% 4.4% 33.5%

West Virginia 42.9% -6.5% 24.5% 2.1% 16.5%

Wisconsin 44.7% -16.2% 39.9% 6.4% 17.3%

Wyoming 77.4% -5.6% 29.6% 5.1% 22.4%

13
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State Ginnie Mae 

Share

Ginnie Mae Average

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan 

Size (Thousands)

Ginnie Mae 

Share

Ginnie Mae Average 

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan Size 

(Thousands)

National 32.8% 227.1 243.9 29.4% 164.0 189.0

Alabama 43.9% 172.3 193.7 43.8% 128.3 152.3

Alaska 50.9% 289.8 258.7 50.3% 232.1 199.6

Arizona 32.2% 228.1 231.8 29.7% 165.2 179.7

Arkansas 42.8% 149.1 175.4 43.3% 110.6 138.0

California 27.6% 367.3 354.5 19.9% 266.6 268.4

Colorado 32.2% 309.5 297.9 25.5% 218.9 226.9

Connecticut 31.2% 220.7 236.2 28.8% 182.6 189.1

Delaware 37.7% 223.0 234.4 35.5% 179.8 184.5

District of Columbia 17.8% 433.9 381.5 15.2% 300.6 304.1

Florida 39.3% 220.5 218.4 34.2% 165.8 172.0

Georgia 40.2% 196.4 221.1 37.4% 143.1 170.8

Hawaii 41.1% 511.7 411.2 29.2% 385.4 316.6

Idaho 32.6% 223.7 222.8 30.2% 154.7 168.6

Illinois 25.5% 184.0 209.2 23.8% 140.9 161.0

Indiana 36.6% 151.9 168.4 36.4% 111.1 127.0

Iowa 26.4% 152.4 172.0 24.9% 113.8 131.6

Kansas 35.4% 162.7 185.4 34.4% 119.9 139.6

Kentucky 39.0% 157.6 176.2 37.9% 121.3 133.4

Louisiana 42.8% 176.7 200.1 41.0% 136.9 159.1

Maine 34.2% 192.8 211.7 31.4% 152.6 161.3

Maryland 43.2% 293.6 279.3 38.2% 231.4 219.4

Massachusetts 23.3% 308.6 303.0 18.6% 236.6 229.6

Michigan 24.6% 156.3 181.2 24.3% 113.5 135.5

Minnesota 23.7% 211.1 224.3 22.9% 156.2 171.8

Mississippi 50.5% 160.5 180.1 49.5% 120.1 142.1

Missouri 34.6% 161.0 183.1 33.8% 120.6 139.6

Montana 29.5% 229.1 233.3 28.3% 169.7 178.1

Nebraska 32.7% 175.1 180.6 31.9% 122.6 138.4

Nevada 36.4% 268.0 249.0 33.2% 187.8 193.2

New Hampshire 31.4% 247.7 237.7 28.0% 193.1 182.2

New Jersey 28.7% 263.2 280.5 26.4% 210.4 219.7

New Mexico 41.9% 189.2 198.9 41.6% 141.0 153.4

New York 24.1% 255.5 287.0 24.5% 187.1 216.4

North Carolina 34.5% 192.9 217.8 32.7% 141.2 167.0

North Dakota 30.0% 218.6 211.5 25.3% 167.3 166.9

Ohio 33.7% 151.0 165.6 34.7% 112.4 127.3

Oklahoma 44.9% 161.0 180.3 46.7% 119.0 140.8

Oregon 28.1% 275.8 274.1 22.4% 199.1 208.8

Pennsylvania 31.5% 173.3 203.9 31.6% 136.3 159.1

Rhode Island 38.5% 242.5 234.6 32.8% 188.2 183.3

South Carolina 39.6% 195.9 205.9 36.3% 147.1 161.6

South Dakota 37.5% 184.7 194.1 34.8% 143.2 150.3

Tennessee 39.5% 196.7 214.0 38.3% 138.9 165.5

Texas 34.0% 208.6 225.8 34.4% 142.9 176.3

Utah 27.2% 265.5 273.0 26.0% 191.1 209.9

Vermont 23.3% 195.4 210.4 19.7% 164.6 160.0

Virginia 43.8% 282.4 276.9 39.8% 221.0 217.6

Washington 31.3% 310.4 309.4 26.1% 218.8 230.6

West Virginia 49.4% 160.7 162.6 45.2% 126.3 127.5

Wisconsin 21.7% 178.3 188.4 19.9% 133.6 142.1

Wyoming 41.3% 224.1 225.2 38.9% 177.6 177.0

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of September 2019. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 

months, from September 2018 to September 2019.

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 29.4 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 32.8 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 15.2 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 50.3 percent in 

Alaska. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

14
State of the US Housing Market

$11.0

$19.7

$30.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Q2

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt, household mortgages Household equity Total Value

$0.45

$0.52

$6.82

$3.17

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Q2

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Second Liens Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Inside Mortgage Finance, eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, and credit unions. 

The Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report has indicated a gradually increasing total value of the housing market 

driven by growing household equity since 2012, and 2Q 2019 was no different. While total mortgage debt 

outstanding was steady at $11.0 trillion, household equity grew from $19.6 trillion in Q1 2019 to $19.7 trillion in 

Q2 2019, bringing the total value of the housing market to $30.6 trillion, 20.0 percent higher than the pre-crisis 

peak in 2006. Agency MBS account for 62.2 percent of the total mortgage debt outstanding, private-label 

securities make up 4.1 percent, and unsecuritized first liens make up 28.9 percent. Second liens comprise the 

remaining 4.7 percent of the total.

15
State of the US Housing Market

As of September 2019, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $6.85 trillion: 42.7 percent Fannie 

Mae, 27.7 percent Freddie Mac, and 29.6 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA have grown very rapidly post-crisis. FHA comprises 

59.3 percent of total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 35.0 percent.

$2.91

$1.89

$2.02

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Sep-01

Mar-02

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

$1.2

$0.7

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Sep-01

Mar-02

Sep-02

Mar-03

Sep-03

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of September 2019.

16
State of the US Housing Market

$0.69

$0.31

$0.03

$0.60

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Q1-Q3

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2019.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Q1-Q3

First Lien Origination Share

In the first three quarters of 2019, first lien originations totaled $1.62 trillion, up from $1.26 trillion at the same 

point in 2018. The share of portfolio originations was 37.2 percent through Q3 2019, up significantly from 30.9 

percent in the same period of 2018. The GSE share was down at 42.6 percent, compared to 45.1 percent in the first 

three quarters of 2018. The FHA/VA share fell slightly, at 19.1 percent compared to 22.1 percent in the same 

period last year. Private-label securitization at 2.0 percent maintained the same share as one year ago, but remains 

a fraction of its share in the pre-bubble years.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q3 2019. 

37.2%

2.0%

19.1%

42.6%

17
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 YTD $186.9 $145.2 $11.1 $343.2

2019 YTD % Change YOY 9.9% 17.6% -15.4% 11.9%

2019 Ann. $249.2 $193.7 $14.8 $457.6

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 YTD $402.3 $295.7 $698.0 $343.2 $1,041.2

2019 YTD % Change YOY 9.0% 27.0% 16.0% 11.9% 14.6%

2019 Ann. $536.4 $394.3 $930.7 $457.6 $1,388.3

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of September 2019.

Agency gross issuance was $1,041.2 billion in the first nine months of 2019, up 14.6 percent compared to the same 

period in 2018. Ginnie Mae gross issuance was up by 11.9 percent and GSE gross issuance was up by 16.0 percent. 

Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA was up by 9.9 percent and VA origination was up by 17.6 percent. While 

origination volumes were lower in January and February, a favorable rate environment has led to an increase in 

issuance year-over-year.

18
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 YTD $31.0 $41.3 $1.3 $73.6

2019 YTD % Change YOY -10.9% -11.0% -49.2% -12.1%

2019 Ann. $41.4 $55.0 $1.8 $98.1

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $57.5 $11.6 $69.1 $87.9 $157.0

2014 $0.5 $30.0 $30.5 $61.6 $92.1

2015 $10.2 $65.0 $75.1 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $68.6 $66.8 $135.5 $125.3 $260.8

2017 $90.2 $78.2 $168.5 $131.3 $299.7

2018 $79.4 $68.4 $147.7 $113.9 $261.6

2019 YTD $61.6 $79.5 $141.1 $73.6 $214.7

2019 YTD % Change YOY 5.1% 82.3% 38.0% -12.1% 15.4%

2019 Ann. $82.1 $106.0 $188.1 $98.1 $286.2

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian 

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of September 2019.

Agency net issuance totaled $214.7 billion in the first nine months of 2019, up 15.4 percent compared to the same period in 

2018. Ginnie Mae net issuance was $73.6 billion, comprising 34.3 percent of total agency net issuance. Ginnie Mae net 

issuance was down 12.1 percent compared to the same period in 2018, while GSE net issuance was up 38 percent over the 

same period. Ginnie Mae net issuance in the first nine months of 2019 was comprised of 56.0 percent VA and 42.2 percent 

FHA. 

19
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of September 2019.

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates rise, increasing when 

interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the same 

month in previous years. In 2019, January and February were lower than 2018, March was about the same, while 

April through September have been much higher, benefitting from the decline in interest rates. The September 

2019 gross agency issuance of $162.1 billion is well above the September 2018 level of $106.6 billion. 

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-16 $35.6 $22.5 $32.5 $90.6 -$0.6 $1.0 $7.3 $7.8

Feb-16 $32.4 $21.2 $30.5 $84.1 $2.4 $3.1 $8.4 $13.9

Mar-16 $39.7 $27.5 $32.9 $100.1 $7.9 $8.2 $9.6 $25.8

Apr-16 $43.8 $26.2 $40.1 $110.1 $0.8 -$0.2 $8.8 $9.4

May-16 $44.2 $29.9 $41.6 $115.6 $2.4 $4.4 $11.4 $18.3

Jun-16 $46.7 $30.1 $43.9 $120.8 $2.7 $3.0 $11.9 $17.7

Jul-16 $49.8 $35.3 $46.1 $131.1 $2.3 $6.3 $10.8 $19.4

Aug-16 $54.9 $37.9 $46.7 $139.5 $10.4 $11.0 $13.8 $35.2

Sep-16 $65.8 $44.0 $52.5 $162.4 $8.7 $9.0 $12.5 $30.2

Oct-16 $66.0 $35.9 $47.4 $149.3 $11.8 $2.7 $9.3 $24.5

Nov-16 $48.8 $40.2 $47.2 $136.3 -$3.5 $7.9 $10.3 $14.8

Dec-16 $72.7 $40.5 $46.8 $160.0 $23.3 $10.4 $10.8 $44.6

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $136.6 $10.3 $10.7 $10.3 $31.9

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $98.1 $3.1 $6.5 $9.2 $18.9

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $95.2 $10.3 $6.2 $9.6 $26.3

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $97.0 $4.8 $0.4 $11.7 $17.3

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $99.3 $7.6 $2.7 $13.1 $23.6

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $110.7 $8.3 $2.4 $13.2 $24.1

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $113.5 $5.8 $3.5 $12.1 $21.5

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $121.1 $12.0 $6.7 $15.6 $33.9

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $115.5 $7.4 $3.8 $10.5 $21.7

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $115.9 $6.4 $12.5 $10.7 $29.6

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $118.5 $4.6 $13.6 $8.2 $26.4

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $111.5 $9.6 $8.2 $6.8 $24.6

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.4 $0.3 $7.8 $20.6

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.0 $2.3 $7.1 $17.4

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $6.1 $14.0

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.1 $9.1 $16.8

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $4.5 $7.2 $10.6 $22.4

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.2 $6.8 $10.5 $19.5

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $10.7 $18.6

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $14.9 $7.9 $12.8 $35.6

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.7 $6.2 $9.1 $21.0

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $10.1 $7.6 $12.1 $29.7

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $2.6 $10.8 $9.6 $22.9

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $8.4 $23.0

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.5 $2.5 $9.5 $17.5

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.2 $3.6 $4.6 $9.5

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.9 $10.3 $5.8 $18.0

Apr-19 $33.1 $30.8 $32.9 $96.8 $0.6 $11.0 $8.5 $20.1

May-19 $44.5 $34.3 $38.8 $117.6 $7.0 $10.3 $9.4 $26.7

Jun-19 $44.6 $34.0 $43.3 $121.9 $1.6 $6.2 $9.2 $16.9

Jul-19 $51.7 $36.9 $45.9 $134.5 $10.3 $10.3 $10.8 $31.4

Aug-19 $71.1 $50.4 $51.2 $172.6 $20.4 $17.5 $8.9 $46.8

Sep-19 $67.1 $43.0 $52.0 $162.1 $13.0 $7.9 $6.9 $27.8

Monthly Agency Issuance

20
US Agency Market, Originations

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Mar-04

Sep-04

Mar-05

Sep-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Mar-11

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mortgage Rate

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance

Freddie Mac (left) Fannie Mae (left) Ginnie Mae (left) Mortgage rate (right)

34.0%

52.6%

0.03%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. Data as of September 2019.

The Ginnie Mae refi share stood at 42.4 percent in September 2019, below the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shares 

of 45.5 and 48.9 respectively. Within the Ginnie Mae market, VA had the highest refi share at 52.6%; the refi share 

for FHA was 34.0 percent. The refi share has steadily ticked up in 2019 as rates have fallen.

21
Credit Box

39.4%

44.0%

69.8%

51.8%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan-14May-14Sep-14 Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17 Jan-18May-18Sep-18 Jan-19May-19Sep-19

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 69.8 percent in September 2019, down 

slightly from its historical high in May; increased refinance activity amidst lower rates makes originators less 

willing to work with that marginal applicant, who is more apt to be a first time home buyer. First time 

homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of the Ginnie Mae purchase market than of the GSE purchase 

market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 44.0 percent and 39.4 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie 

Mac purchase originations respectively. The bottom table shows that based on mortgages originated in 

September 2019, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat buyer to take out a 

smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a much higher LTV and similar DTI and pay a higher rate.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 257,832 286,910 244,799 267,444 222,531 273,269 238,364 276,971 

Credit Score 741.2 755.0 744.7 758.5 680.1 702.3 713.0 742.4

LTV (%) 88.3 79.5 87.1 79.4 96.9 95.3 92.1 83.6

DTI (%) 35.7 36.4 34.9 35.8 41.4 42.3 38.2 37.7

Loan Rate (%) 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.9

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of September 2019.

22
Credit Box

83.6%

52.0%

77.4%

69.8%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Jan-14May-14Sep-14 Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17 Jan-18May-18Sep-18 Jan-19May-19Sep-19

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes 

the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 77.4 percent of FHA loans, 52.0 percent of VA loans and 83.6 percent of 

other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in September 2019. The bottom table shows that 

based on mortgages originated in September 2019, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an 

average repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, higher LTV similar DTI, and pay a 

higher rate.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 218,645 236,806 263,878 314,043 150,753 173,154 222,531 273,269 

Credit Score 669.8 670.7 701.6 729.6 695.8 704.0 680.1 702.3

LTV (%) 95.5 93.8 99.6 96.3 99.2 99.1 96.9 95.3

DTI (%) 42.9 43.8 40.1 41.6 34.8 35.6 41.4 42.3

Loan Rate (%) 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Includes only purchase loans. Data as of September 2019.

23
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2017.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 503 524 587 682 774 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 570 615 682 752 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (682) is equal to the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (682).

24
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 335,839 646 686 737 778 798 729 

Fannie 124,934 687 720 758 786 801 750 

Freddie 92,939 693 725 761 788 802 754 

Ginnie 117,966 622 645 678 726 772 687 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 259,289 655 695 743 778 798 733 

Fannie 118,681 685 717 756 784 801 748 

Freddie 72,788 685 718 756 784 800 748 

Ginnie 67,820 620 649 686 733 775 690 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 595,128 649 690 740 778 798 731 

Fannie 243,615 686 719 757 785 801 749 

Freddie 165,727 689 722 759 786 801 751 

Ginnie 185,786 621 647 681 729 774 688 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 117,966 622 645 678 726 772 687 

FHA 70,061 615 638 665 698 737 670 

VA 37,889 631 665 718 769 795 715 

Other 10,016 640 659 693 733 766 697 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 67,820 620 649 686 733 775 690 

FHA 31,602 607 637 666 699 735 668 

VA 35,961 633 667 710 759 788 709 

Other 257 642 670 702 743 776 701 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 185,786 621 647 681 729 774 688 

FHA 101,663 613 638 665 698 736 669 

VA 73,850 632 666 714 764 792 712 

Other 10,273 640 660 693 733 766 697 

September 2019 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of September 2019.

In September 2019, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 681 versus 757 for Fannie Mae and 759 for Freddie Mac. 

Note that the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 621 for Ginnie Mae, versus 686 for Fannie Mae and 689 for 

Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 665, VA loans have a median 

FICO score of 714 and other loans have a median FICO score of 693.

25
September 2019 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 336,252 71.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 87.4 

Fannie 125,040 64.0 80.0 85.0 95.0 97.0 82.9 

Freddie 92,986 63.0 80.0 80.0 95.0 95.0 82.0 

Ginnie 118,226 92.4 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.4 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 265,830 50.0 64.0 76.0 86.5 97.0 74.1 

Fannie 118,687 45.0 59.0 71.0 80.0 85.0 67.7 

Freddie 72,800 46.0 60.0 73.0 80.0 85.0 68.7 

Ginnie 74,343 74.9 85.0 92.4 98.6 100.0 89.5 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 602,082 57.0 74.0 84.0 96.4 98.2 81.5 

Fannie 243,727 51.0 67.0 80.0 90.0 95.0 75.5 

Freddie 165,786 52.0 69.0 80.0 90.0 95.0 76.2 

Ginnie 192,569 82.6 92.0 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.7 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 118,226 92.4 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.0 96.4 

FHA 70,203 92.9 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.1 

VA 37,948 90.7 100.0 100.0 102.2 102.8 98.0 

Other 10,075 95.2 99.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.1 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 74,343 74.9 85.0 92.4 98.6 100.0 89.5 

FHA 33,984 73.5 83.2 86.5 96.5 98.2 86.6 

VA 40,088 76.3 87.4 96.6 100.0 101.1 91.9 

Other 271 77.6 86.3 98.5 101.4 102.0 92.9 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 192,569 82.6 92.0 96.5 100.0 101.0 93.7 

FHA 104,187 83.0 89.9 96.5 96.5 96.5 92.3 

VA 78,036 81.1 92.5 100.0 100.0 102.2 94.9 

Other 10,346 94.8 98.9 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.0 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of September 2019.

In September 2019, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 80 percent for 

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 101 percent for Ginnie Mae and 95 percent for Freddie and 97 

percent for Fannie. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 100.0 for VA and 101.0 for 

other programs. 

26
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 335,796 24.0 31.0 39.0 45.0 49.4 37.8 

Fannie 125,033 22.0 29.0 37.0 44.0 48.0 35.9 

Freddie 92,984 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.3 

Ginnie 117,779 28.5 35.2 42.3 49.0 54.2 41.7 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 232,533 22.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 48.0 35.5 

Fannie 118,671 21.0 28.0 35.0 42.0 46.0 34.5 

Freddie 72,797 21.0 28.0 36.0 42.0 46.0 34.6 

Ginnie 41,065 24.6 32.0 40.8 48.5 54.0 39.8 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 568,329 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 49.0 36.8 

Fannie 243,704 22.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 47.0 35.2 

Freddie 165,781 22.0 28.0 36.0 43.0 47.0 35.0 

Ginnie 158,844 27.5 34.4 42.0 48.9 54.1 41.2 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 117,779 28.5 35.2 42.3 49.0 54.2 41.7 

FHA 70,185 30.5 37.2 44.1 50.2 54.6 43.1 

VA 37,579 26.7 33.7 41.3 48.3 54.1 40.8 

Other 10,015 25.6 30.5 36.0 40.1 42.8 34.9 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 41,065 24.6 32.0 40.8 48.5 54.0 39.8 

FHA 21,965 28.6 35.2 43.3 50.0 54.7 42.1 

VA 18,892 21.1 29.7 37.8 46.1 52.3 37.3 

Other 208 15.8 20.3 28.3 36.6 41.1 28.7 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 158,844 27.5 34.4 42.0 48.9 54.1 41.2 

FHA 92,150 30.0 36.7 43.9 50.1 54.6 42.9 

VA 56,471 24.8 32.0 40.3 47.7 53.5 39.6 

Other 10,223 25.3 30.3 35.9 40.0 42.8 34.8 

September 2019 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of September 2019.

In September 2019, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 42.0 percent, considerably higher than 

the 36.0 percent median DTI for both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 54.1 

percent, also much higher than the 47.0 percent DTI for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae 

market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 43.9 percent, versus 40.3 percent for VA and 35.9 percent for other lending 

programs. 

27
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

757

759

681

740

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-14May-14Sep-14 Jan-15May-15Sep-15 Jan-16May-16Sep-16 Jan-17May-17Sep-17 Jan-18May-18Sep-18 Jan-19May-19Sep-19

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of September 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in September 2019 was 740, down slightly from 741 last 

month, but up considerably on the year, owing to the refinance wave, which higher FICO borrowers take 

advantage of with greater frequency. The figures show that the median FICO score for Ginnie Mae borrowers 

has always been considerably lower than for GSE borrowers. Since early 2019, the median FICO scores for 

Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie borrowers have moved up for both purchase and refinance loans. The difference 

between Ginnie Mae and GSE borrower FICOs is slightly wider for purchase loans than for refi loans.

28
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

LTV Ratio for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 80 – 84 

LTVs for the GSEs. Through time, both Ginnie Mae and GSE refinances have LTVs about 4-20 points lower 

than their purchase counterparts. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of September 2019.

84.0

80.0

29
Credit Box: Historical

36.0

42.0

38.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

DTI Ratio for Refinance Loans 

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Debt-to-income Ratio

DTI Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note:Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note:Data as of September 2019.

Median debt-to-income ratios on Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher 

than for the GSEs. DTIs increased in the 2017-2018 period for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with the 

movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are very typical in an environment of rising 

interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies have witnessed measurable declines in DTIs in spring 

and summer 2019 driven by lower interest rates.

30
95%

85%

65%

46%

35%

96%

85%

59%

38%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

94%

85%

67%

47%

35%

96%

84%

60%

40%

32%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

July 2017- September 2017 July 2019- September 2019

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

98% 97%

91%

82%

69%

99% 94%

82%

62%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In July 2019−September 

2019, Ginnie Mae accounted for 96 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, 

compared to just 32 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI 

bucket looks a lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In July 2019− September 2019, Ginnie Mae’s share of 

issuance was higher for DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share of 

loans with a DTI of 45 and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 82 percent; it was 59-60 percent for the same FICO 

in the lower DTI buckets. Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear that GSEs have stepped up their 

higher LTV lending in all but the lowest FICO buckets, taking market share from Ginnie Mae. 

31
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

July 2017-September 2017

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.9% 5.6% 3.2% 8.2% 10.2% 30.0%

35 −45 5.1% 9.9% 5.3% 12.4% 10.6% 43.3%

≥ 45 3.7% 8.0% 3.8% 6.8% 4.4% 26.7%

All 11.7% 23.4% 12.3% 27.4% 25.2% 100.0%

July 2019-September 2019

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 2.9% 4.7% 2.7% 7.7% 10.6% 28.5%

35 −45 5.0% 8.4% 4.6% 11.6% 10.8% 40.4%

≥ 45 4.5% 8.0% 3.9% 8.4% 6.4% 31.1%

All 12.4% 21.0% 11.2% 27.7% 27.8% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Ginnie Mae GSE All

July 2017- September 2017 71.3% 18.8% 36.8%

July 2019- September 2019 70.3% 18.9% 33.7%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 70.3 percent of its issuances in the July 2019-September 2019 

period having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 18.9 percent for the GSEs. The GSEs have increased their highLTV lending share from 18.8 percent in July 2017−September 2017. Ginnie Mae’s high-LTV lending is down just 

slightly over the same period from 71.3 percent. As home prices have increased, the share of high-DTI lending 

(loans with DTI ≥ 45) has increased across the FICO spectrum.

32
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of September 2019.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

86%

66%

58%

55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

The nonbank origination share has been rising steadily for all three agencies since 2013. The Ginnie Mae 

nonbank share has been consistently higher than the GSEs, standing at its record high of 86 percent in 

September 2019. Freddie and Fannie’s nonbank shares both rose in September, to 58 and 55 percent 

respectively (note that these numbers can be volatile on a month-to-month basis). Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and 

Freddie Mac all have higher nonbank origination shares for refi activity than for purchase activity. Freddie 

Mac’s nonbank share is the lowest among the three agencies for both purchase and refinance loans.

33
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development. Data as of September 2019.

In September 2019, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share grew slightly to 86 percent. The nonbank originator share for 

FHA rose, reaching a historical high of 93 percent in September. The nonbank originator share for VA was 78 

percent, and the nonbank originator share for other loans, which can fluctuate quite a bit month to month, 

increased to 88 percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

93%

88%

86%

78%

34
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of September 2019. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of September 2019. 

740

755

729

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019. 

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. The median GSE and the median Ginnie Mae 

FICO scores for loans originated by nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, both bank 

and nonbank FICOs have increased slightly since 2014. In contrast, within the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for bank 

originations are measurably higher since 2014 while nonbank FICOs have remained flat. This largely reflects the sharp 

cut-back in FHA lending by many banks. 

35
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTVs for nonbank and bank originations are comparable, while the median DTI for nonbank loans is higher 

than for bank loans, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in both this and the FICO dimension. Since 

early 2017, there has been a substantial increase in DTIs, which has partially reversed over the course of 2019. This is 

true for both Ginnie Mae and the GSEs, for banks and nonbanks. As interest rates increased, DTIs rose, because 

borrower payments were driven up relative to incomes. With the fall in interest rates in 2019, DTIs have dropped.

36
650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of September 2019.

The FICO scores for both Ginnie Mae nonbank and bank originators increased in September 2019. FICO 

spreads between banks and nonbanks have generally increased since 2013. The gap between banks and nonbanks is very apparent in all programs backing Ginnie Mae securities: FHA, VA, and Other.

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2019.

37
90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae VA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median LTV VA Bank Median LTV

VA Nonbank Median LTV

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of September 2019.

An analysis of the loans backing Ginnie Mae origination indicates that there are virtually no differences in 

median LTV ratios between bank originated loans and nonbank originated loans. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae LTV: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Ginnie Mae FHA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median LTV FHA Bank Median LTV

FHA Nonbank Median LTV

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Ginnie Mae Other LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median LTV Other Bank Median LTV

Other Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2019.

38
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note:Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of September 2019.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA loans experienced notable increases since early 2017 for both 

bank and nonbank originations, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are expected 

in a rising rate environment. After peaking in January 2019, Ginnie DTIs have trended downward, as rates have 

declined. 

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of September 2019.

39
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of September 2019.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Wells Fargo $232,829 13.7% 13.7%

2 Lakeview $203,116 11.9% 25.6%

3 PennyMac $187,608 11.0% 36.6%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $115,680 6.8% 43.4%

5 Nationstar $97,684 5.6% 49.0%

6 Quicken Loans $65,662 3.9% 52.8%

7 US Bank $58,789 3.5% 56.3%

8 JPMorgan Chase $42,871 2.5% 58.8%

9 Carrington Home Mortgage $41,202 2.4% 61.2%

10 USAA Federal Savings Bank $37,419 2.2% 63.4%

11 Caliber Home Loans $35,510 2.1% 65.5%

12 Navy Federal Credit Union $26,270 1.5% 67.0%

13 Newrez $26,246 1.5% 68.6%

14 Amerihome Mortgage $25,246 1.5% 70.1%

15 The Money Source $22,282 1.3% 71.4%

16 Midfirst Bank $21,728 1.3% 72.6%

17 M&T Bank $19,666 1.2% 73.8%

18 Roundpoint $18,223 1.1% 74.9%

19 Suntrust $18,204 1.1% 75.9%

20 Ditech Financial $17,973 1.1% 77.0%

21 Home Point Financial $17,443 1.0% 78.0%

22 Guild Mortgage $15,646 0.9% 78.9%

23 Branch Banking and Trust $15,598 0.9% 79.9%

24 Loan Depot $15,113 0.9% 80.7%

25 PHH Mortgage $14,318 0.8% 81.6%

26 Flagstar Bank $13,961 0.8% 82.4%

27 Pingora $13,413 0.8% 83.2%

28 Citizens Bank $12,521 0.7% 83.9%

29 Bank of America $11,359 0.7% 84.6%

30 Fifth Third Bank $11,275 0.7% 85.3%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of September 2019, over half (52.8 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 

firms collectively own 85.3 percent. Seventeen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 13 are 

depository institutions. 

40
67.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In November 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. Although Wells Fargo is still the largest player, its portfolio has shrunk 

to $230 billion. Lakeview, PennyMac, Freedom Home Mortgage, and Nationstar (all nonbanks) make up the 

remainder of the top five largest holders of MSRs, owning $203 billion, $188 billion, $116 billion, and $95 billion 

respectively as of September 2019. As of September 2019, nonbanks collectively owned servicing rights for 67.3 

percent of all outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by Ginnie Mae. In December 2013, the nonbank 

share was much smaller at 27.7 percent. 

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$232,829

$187,608

$203,116

$115,680

$94,577

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

1. Wells Fargo 2. Lakeview

3. PennyMac 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

UPB ($ millions) 5. Nationstar

41
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of October 2019.

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae securities were lower than on GSE securities from 2011 through early-2013, but 

have been higher since. These increased Ginnie speeds reflect the growing share of VA loans, which tend to 

prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA puts fewer restrictions on streamlined refinances, 

and unlike GSE streamline refinances, requires no credit report and no appraisal. Some of the upfront mortgage 

insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. 

From late 2016 to later 2018, as interest rates increased, the bulk of the mortgage universe found it noneconomic to refinance and the prepayment speeds for all agency MBS slowed substantially. The small month-tomonth variation in speeds reflected primarily seasonality and changes in day count. With the drop in rates 

beginning in late 2018 and persisting through 2019, we have seen a notable pick up in prepayment activity. This 

activity level is rate dependent; If rates drop further, speeds are likely to increase. However, the seasonal 

patterns suggest, in the absence of rate movements, a slightly decrease in speeds in the months ahead.

18%

17%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

26%

22%

16%

42
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

The 2015 Ginnie II 3.5s and the 2016 Ginnie II 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have 

prepaid consistently faster than their conventional counterparts. 2015 and 2016 originations are more heavily 

VA loans than the 2011 origination shown on the preceding page. VA loans prepay faster than either FHA or GSE 

loans. The FHA streamlined programs are likely another contributor to the faster speeds.

With the increase in interest rates over the 2 year period beginning in November 2016, the prepayment 

speeds for all agency MBS had slowed. From late 2016 to late 2018, with the bulk of the mortgage universe 

finding it non-economic to refinance, the muted month to month variations in speeds reflected seasonality, 

changes in day count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With the drop in rates beginning in late 2018 and 

persisting through 2019, we have seen a notable pick up in prepayment activity. This activity level is rate 

dependent; If rates drop further, speeds are likely to increase. However, the seasonal patterns suggest, in the 

absence of rate movements, a slightly decrease in speeds in the months ahead.

19%

15%

22%

20%

43
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Ginnie Mae securities season more slowly than their conventional counterparts; they generally have lower 

prepayment in the early months but are more interest rate responsive thereafter. The charts below show the 

behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-issued 4.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years. 

Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s have been prepaying faster than their conventional 

counterparts since late 2017, due primarily to fast VA prepayment speeds. Similarly, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s 

prepaid more slowly than their conventional counterparts until January of 2019. In 2019, speeds of all 2018 

4.0s have accelerated, and Ginnie II speeds have accelerated more than their conventional counterparts.

28%

23%

22%

47%

41%

44
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

The charts below show the prepayment speeds by loan age for 2017 Ginnie II 4.0s and 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s—the 

cohorts 50 basis points above the largest coupon cohort for those years. Prepayment speeds on the 2017 

Ginnie II 4.0s jumped up sharply at the 7-9 month loan age, reflecting abuse of the VA Streamlined Refi 

program (IRRRL). The 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s do not show increased speeds until the 9-10 month point; reflecting 

both the effect of lower rates and the actions taken by both Ginnie Mae and the VA in H1 2018 to curb this 

abuse. Ginnie Mae actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA prepayment speeds are 

especially high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling 

requirements so that if loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is 

ineligible for securitization. Ginnie’s latest action on this front became effective for securities issued on or 

after Nov 1 2019. It bars the securitization of over 90% LTV cash-out refinances into Ginnie I and Ginnie II 

pools (custom pools excepted). In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the 

lender to show the borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance. Even so, the recent experience of the 

2018 Ginnie II 4.5s indicates they are much more responsive to interest rate changes than conventional 

mortgages.

29.2%

27.0%

25.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR

Loan age

45.6%

27.2%

17.7%

45
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$0.61

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Sep-19

Jul-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

54.1

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Sep-19

Jul-19

Mar-19

May-19

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile in recent months; after increasing in July, volume has 

fallen consecutively in August and September 2019 to $0.61 billion. Issuance has been declining since early 2018 

largely due to the implementation of the new, lower principal limit factors. In September 2019, outstanding 

reverse mortgage securities totaled $54.1 billion, lower compared to recent past, reflecting a lower volume of 

new issuances. 

46
Multifamily Market

$1.6

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Sep-19

Jul-19

Mar-19

May-19

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$122.9

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Sep-19

Jul-19

Mar-19

May-19

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volume in September 2019 totaled $1.6 billion, an increase from the past month 

but below average issuance levels over the past 18 months. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled $122.9 

billion in September.

47
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

$251 

$603 

$35 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.72%

3.81%

0.37% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume was $251 billion/day on average 2019 YTD, more robust than in the 2014-2018 

period, but well below the pre-crisis peak of $345 billion in 2008. In contrast, average daily trading volume for 

Treasuries now exceeds the pre-crisis peak. Agency MBS turnover in 2019 YTD also has been slightly higher 

than the 2014-2018 period; in the first nine months of 2019, average daily MBS turnover was 3.72 percent, 

above the 2018 average of 3.39 percent. Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are down from 

their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

48
Market Conditions

$242.4

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$86.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of October 2019.

Dealer net positions are near their post-crisis highs. By contrast, dealer gross positions have fallen 

dramatically. The volume of repurchase activity is up from the near 13-year low in 2017. The large decline 

through time reflects banks cutting back on lower margin businesses. 

49
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 2015Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: The “other” category includes primarily life insurance companies, state and 

local govts, households, and nonprofits. Data as of Q2 2019.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (17 

percent), commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (12 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares 

are a fraction of what they once were. 

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

50
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q2 2019.

71.9%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 2015Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Small domestic banks includes all domestically chartered commercial banks not 

included in the top 25. Data as of October 2019.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, fewer agency notes and bonds are required to 

fund that activity, hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. As of Q2 2019, the MBS share of total 

agency debt stood at 71.9 percent. Commercial banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $2.1 

trillion in holdings as of the end of October 2019, $1.5 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

Commercial Bank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Sep-18 Mar-19 Apr-19May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct 2 Oct 9 Oct 16 Oct 23

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1,319.2 1,412.8 1,431.0 1,434.2 1,452.0 1,455.0 1,465.0 1,491.5 1,502.9 1,501.3 1,504.7 1,506.5

Small Domestic 

Banks 485.2 495.7 501.0 502.4 506.6 512.1 513.0 518.1 521.2 522.1 521.9 524.9

Foreign Related 

Banks 22.9 26.5 26.6 29.0 27.7 28.3 33.1 35.3 38.2 38.0 37.3 37.9

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1,827.3 1,935.0 1,958.6 1,965.6 1,986.3 1,995.4 2,011.1 2,044.9 2,062.3 2,061.4 2,063.9 2,069.3

51
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $321,350 $189,813 $120,254 $11,182 $101 16.8%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $242,666 $170,698 $67,268 $3,437 $1,263 12.7%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $122,486 $77,351 $32,145 $250 $12,740 6.4%

4 U S. Bancorp. $86,589 $40,367 $23,172 $23,050 $1 4.5%

5 Charles Schwab Bank $85,873 $50,421 $16,665 $18,787 $0 4.5%

6 Capital One Financial Corporation $66,636 $53,951 $3,427 $7,099 $2,159 3.5%

7 Citigroup Inc. $66,505 $28,528 $14,430 $22,657 $890 3.5%

8 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $54,168 $31,612 $3,769 $17,473 $1,314 2.8%

9 PNC Bank, National Association $51,679 $43,569 $3,437 $2,467 $2,208 2.7%

10 Branch Banking and Trust Company $41,845 $19,522 $12,602 $7,084 $2,637 2.2%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $39,065 $13,582 $5,882 $19,219 $382 2.1%

12 E*TRADE Bank $26,428 $14,621 $7,586 $4,221 $0 1.4%

13 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $26,110 $6,683 $9,981 $9,444 $2 1.4%

14 KeyBank National Association $23,235 $11,550 $11,224 $462 $0 1.2%

15 SunTrust Bank $22,534 $1,683 $836 $20,015 $0 1.2%

16 Morgan Stanley $22,399 $13,594 $2,537 $3,462 $2,806 1.2%

17 Ally Bank $21,975 $10,778 $5,785 $4,517 $895 1.2%

18 The Northern Trust Company $21,969 $9,897 $3,365 $8,707 $0 1.2%

19 MUFG Union Bank $17,558 $11,200 $3,843 $2,513 $2 0.9%

20 Regions Bank $16,871 $5,293 $3,517 $7,140 $921 0.8%

Total Top 20 $1,377,942 $804,712 $351,724 $193,185 $28,321 72.2%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q2 2019.

Out of the $1.9 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q2 2019, $1.4 trillion was agency pass-throughs: 

$1.0 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $408 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $422 billion was agency 

CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $40 billion. MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for the third 

quarter in a row in Q2 2019. This increase was broad based, coming from Ginnie Mae and GSE pass-throughs, 

agency CMOs as well as non-agency holdings. 

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

1Q16 $1,660.58 $1,133.29 $833.25 $300.04 $448.63 $10.27 $68.39 

2Q 16 $1,684.33 $1,169.67 $867.64 $302.03 $440.25 $9.11 $65.29 

3Q16 $1,732.36 $1,227.52 $924.81 $302.71 $435.77 $7.90 $61.17 

4Q16 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01 

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04 

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69 

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,385.10 $1,001.61 $383.49 $422.18 $3.06 $34.65 

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,445.91 $1,037.93 $407.97 $421.56 $2.90 $36.76 

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

52
Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of Q2 2019.

15.8%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

MBS Ownership

$1,086.1

$448.0

$638.1

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Foreign investors held 15.8 percent of agency MBS in Q2 2019, up from a low of 11.8 percent in Q1 2014. For 

the month of July 2019, this represents $1.09 trillion in Agency MBS, $448.0 billion held by foreign private 

institutions and $638.1 billion held by foreign institutions. 

53
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of July 2019.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise over 70 percent 

of all foreign holdings. Between June 2018 and July 2019, we estimate China has increased their agency MBS 

holdings by $54.8 billion, Japan has increased their holdings by $49.3 billion and Taiwan has increased their 

holdings by $13.4 billion.

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Jul-19

Q3 

2018

Q4 

2018

Q1 

2019

Q2 

2019 Jul-19

Japan 257,547 254,511 271,999 284,322 296,445 306,913 -3,036 17,488 12,323 12,123 10,468

Taiwan 250,009 250,639 261,262 265,992 265,520 263,462 630 10,623 4,730 -472 -2,058

China 180,635 190,203 188,921 208,540 227,312 235,487 9,568 -1,282 19,619 18,772 8,175

Ireland 46,817 48,220 48,045 46,623 44,979 43,940 1,403 -175 -1,422 -1,644 -1,039

Luxembourg 36,372 38,800 50,869 44,561 45,144 45,039 2,428 12,069 -6,308 583 -105

South Korea 44,039 43,944 44,794 42,604 42,669 42,597 -95 850 -2,190 65 -72

Bermuda 27,866 27,610 28,651 28,535 29,377 29,254 -256 1,041 -116 842 -123

Cayman 

Islands 31,017 31,638 31,405 30,374 30,885 31,043 621 -233 -1,031 511 158

Malaysia 12,710 12,874 12,671 12,395 12,108 12,851 164 -203 -276 -287 743

Netherlands 11,995 12,229 9,601 9,400 13,548 13,180 234 -2,628 -201 4,148 -368

Rest of World 125,197 128,807 129,345 129,987 128,056 133,972 3,610 538 642 -1,931 5,916

Total 1,024,200 1,039,475 1,077,563 1,103,333 1,136,043 1,157,738 15,275 38,088 25,770 32,710 21,695

Levelof Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Jul-19

Q3 

2018

Q4 

2018

Q1 

2019

Q2 

2019 Jul-19

Japan 253,972 250,851 268,119 280,394 292,762 303,284 -3,121 17,268 12,275 12,368 10,522

Taiwan 249,773 250,397 261,006 265,733 265,277 263,222 624 10,608 4,727 -456 -2,054

China 176,345 185,811 184,265 203,827 222,893 231,132 9,466 -1,546 19,562 19,066 8,239

Ireland 37,832 39,021 38,293 36,751 35,723 34,819 1,189 -729 -1,542 -1,028 -904

Luxembourg 34,012 36,384 48,307 41,968 42,713 42,643 2,372 11,924 -6,339 745 -70

South Korea 33,064 32,708 32,882 30,546 31,363 31,456 -356 174 -2,336 817 93

Bermuda 24,969 24,644 25,507 25,352 26,393 26,313 -325 863 -155 1,040 -79

Cayman 

Islands 24,384 24,847 24,206 23,086 24,052 24,309 463 -642 -1,119 965 258

Malaysia 12,319 12,474 12,247 11,965 11,705 12,454 155 -227 -281 -260 749

Netherlands 11,437 11,658 8,995 8,787 12,973 12,614 221 -2,662 -208 4,186 -360

Rest of World 95,510 98,414 97,123 97,370 97,473 103,835 2,904 -1,291 247 103 6,362

Total 953,612 967,209 1,000,948 1,025,779 1,063,325 1,086,080 13,597 33,739 24,831 37,546 22,755

54
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

May-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

May-17

Sep-17

Jan-18

May-18

Sep-18

Jan-19

May-19

Sep-19

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of September 2019.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of September 2019.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Mar-14

Sep-14

Mar-15

Sep-15

Mar-16

Sep-16

Mar-17

Sep-17

Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

The Federal Reserve is actively winding down its mortgage portfolio; MBS purchases are very low. During the 

period October 2014-September 2017, the Fed ended its purchase program, but was reinvesting proceeds from 

mortgage and agency debt into the mortgage market, absorbing 20-30 percent of agency gross issuance. In 

October 2017, the Fed began to taper their mortgage holdings, initially letting securities run off at the rate of $4 

billion per month in Q4, 2017; $8 billion per month in Q1, 2018; $12 billion per month in Q2; $16 billion per 

month in Q3; and $20 billion per month in Q4, 2018 and thereafter. With the Fed now at its maximum taper, Fed 

absorption of gross issuance was 3.82 percent in September. 

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