Global Markets 

Analysis Report

A MONTHLY PUBLICATION OF GINNIE MAE’S 

OFFICE OF CAPITAL MARKETS

PREPARED FOR GINNIE MAE 

BY STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS 

URBAN INSTITUTE, HOUSING FINANCE POLICY CENTER
CONTENTS

Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Barclays US Aggregate and Global Indices 4

Global 10-year treasury yields 5

Ginnie Mae yields and yield spreads—USD, JPY, Euro 6-8

MBS yield per duration 9

Total return and Sharpe Ratios 10 

State of the US Housing Market 

Serious delinquency rates 11

National HPI, HPI by state 11-12

Ginnie Mae Agency issuance and Agency outstanding by state 13

Size and value of the US Residential housing and mortgage markets 14

Outstanding Agency MBS 15

Origination volume over time 16

US Agency Market, Originations

Agency Gross and Net Issuance 17-19

Purchase versus refi: Percent Refi at Issuance 20

Credit Box 

First time home buyer share—purchase only loans 21-22

FICO score distribution 23

Credit box at a glance (FICO, LTV, DTI) 24-26

Historical credit box (FICO, LTV,DTI) 27-29

High LTV credit box 30-31

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators

Nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 32

Ginnie Mae nonbank originator share (All, Purchase, Refi) 33

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae vs. GSE (FICO, LTV, DTI) 34-35

Bank vs. nonbank originators historical credit box, Ginnie Mae breakdown (FICO, LTV, DTI) 36-37

Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights 

Top Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 38-39

Non-bank Holders of Ginnie Mae MSR 40

Prepayments 

Aggregate 41

Select coupon/origination year cohorts 41-44

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

HMBS 45

Multifamily 46

Market Conditions-Agency MBS

Average daily trading volume and turnover by sector 47

Dealer net positions, repo volume 48

MBS Ownership

Ownership breakdown of total agency debt 49

MBS share of total agency debt and commercial bank ownership of MBS 50

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings 51

Foreign ownership of MBS 52-53

Fed Ownership of MBS 54
Differences in Agency MBS Pooling Rules Can Affect Prepay Speeds

Securitization of mortgages into Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae MBS is governed by pooling policies established 

by each agency. Loans pooled into Ginnie Mae II multi issuer MBS pool must bear a note rate at least 25 basis points, but 

not more than 75 basis points above the MBS coupon. 

By contrast, the GSEs have historically allowed originators to include loans that are a minimum of 25 basis points to a 

maximum of 250 basis points above the pool coupon. Thus, a 3.0% pool could have contained loans with rates from 3.25% 

to 5.5%. With the introduction of the UMBS in June 2019, the upper bound was capped at 112.5 basis points, limiting the 

maximum rate to 4.125%. Servicing fees were also capped at 50 bps. This flexibility to pool a wider range of note rates has 

produced more variability in the spread between note and the coupon rates in GSE pools, as shown in the table below. This 

variability can contribute to different prepayment sensitivities to comparable coupon Ginnie Mae MBS. Recent vintages 

show that for certain MBS coupons the spread differential between GSE and Ginnie Mae MBS have increased.

Source: Urban Institute calculations from eMBS data. Note: 2019 data through August.

From 2018 to 2019, the spread between the average note rate and pool coupon rose dramatically for Fannie Mae. In 2018, 

average note rate on loans in 3.0% Fannie Mae pools was 3.59 percent (the difference was 59 bps.) From Jan to Aug 2019, 

the average note rate was much higher at 3.90 percent, a 90-bps difference. That is, originators retained more servicing, as 

it was economically attractive. Other Fannie coupons as well as the Freddie coupons exhibit a similar pattern as shown in 

the table. Monthly breakdown of this data (not displayed) show that the spread between note rate and coupon has 

contracted since the introduction of UMBS in June this year and its tighter pooling rules. For Fannie Mae, the spread for 

3.0, 3.5 and 4.0 coupons was 87, 82 and 70 bps respectively for Aug 2019 issuances, in comparison to a 2019 YTD average 

of 90, 89 and 79 bps for the same coupons. Freddie monthly data shows similar decline post UMBS.

By contrast, average note rates on loans in Ginnie Mae MBS have ticked up only modestly. For example, the average note 

rate on mortgages in 3.0% Ginnie MBS issued over the first eight months of 2019 was 3.54 percent, 7 basis points more 

than the average note rate of 3.47% on loans for 2018 Ginnie Mae MBS.

This has two implications. First, borrower refinance incentive is based on the note rate on the mortgage, not the security 

coupon. So H1, 2019 GSE mortgages may be more prepayment responsive than earlier vintages. Second, when trading TBA 

securities, investors receive the “cheapest to deliver” mortgage; these higher note rate mortgages are more likely to be 

delivered into GSE pools. An investor must buy a specified pool to avoid this. As a result, an increasing number of GSE pools

contain pay-ups. If one were to buy GSE MBS with the same note rate to coupon spread, there would likely be a pay-up.

Highlights this month:

• Interest rates continued to decline in July 2019 (page 5), driving up origination volumes. Agency gross issuance in 2019 

is up 3.3 percent from the same period last year (page 17).

• The FHA nonbank originator share hit a new historical high of 92 percent in July 2019 (page 33).

• MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for the third quarter in a row in Q2 2019 (page 51).

HIGHLIGHTS

MBS Coupon 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

3.0 58 57 66 64 52 59 90

3.5 55 69 61 57 55 51 89

4.0 58 59 56 51 47 55 79

Avg . Difference 57 62 61 57 51 55 86

MBS Coupon 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

3.0 58 59 67 69 62 71 96

3.5 53 70 61 61 58 66 89

4.0 56 59 56 53 47 62 76

Avg . Difference 56 63 61 61 56 66 87

MBS Coupon 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

3.0 34 46 46 41 45 47 54

3.5 34 40 38 39 40 45 52

4.0 32 34 36 39 39 46 52

Avg . Difference 33 40 40 40 41 46 53

Basis Point Difference between Average Note Rate and Pool Coupon Rate

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac

Ginnie Mae II
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

US MBS (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac) comprise 27 percent of the Barclays US Aggregate Index-less 

than either the US Treasury share (40 percent) or the US Credit share (30 percent). Fannie Mae 30-year MBS 

comprises the largest percent of US MBS (9 percent), while Ginnie Mae 30-year MBS and Freddie Mac 30-year MBS 

comprise 8 percent and 6 percent of the market, respectively. Mortgages with terms of 15 and 20 years comprise the 

remaining balance (3 percent) of the US MBS share. US securities are the single largest contributor to the Barclays 

Global Aggregate, accounting for 39 percent of the global total. US MBS comprises 11 percent of the global 

aggregate. 

40%

1%

30%

8%

9%

6%

3%

2%

Barclays US 

Aggregate Index

Treasury

Agency

Credit

GNMA MBS 30y

FNMA MBS 30y

FHLMC MBS 30y

15y and 20y MBS

ABS & CMBS

54%

6%

25%

11%

1% 3%

Global Treasury

Global Agency

Global Credit

US MBS

ABS & CMBS

Collateralised

(Pfandbrief)

2%

3% 1%

39%

30%

21%

1%

0.04% 2% 0%

Australia

Canada

Middle East

United States

Europe

Asia & Pacific Rim

Latin America

Africa

Supranational

Others

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of June 2019.

Note: Numbers in chart may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.

Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Country Barclays Global Aggregate Index by Sector

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of June 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of June 2019.

4
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19

Yield (%)

Global 10-year Treasury Yields

US 10y UK 10y GER 10y ITA 10y JPY 10y

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Au g-12 Au g- 13 Au g-14 Au g- 15 Au g-16 Au g-17 Au g-18 Au g-19

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, JPY

10y US hedged yield, JPY (left)

US 10y hedged yield advantage vs 10y JGB (right)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Au g-12 Au g-13 Au g-14 Au g-15 Au g-16 Au g-17 Au g-18 Au g-19

10yr US Treasury hedged yield, EUR

10y US hedged yield, EUR (left)

10y US hedge yield advantage vs 10y bund (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. 

Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors

Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of August 2019.

With weakness in recent economic data and worries about tariffs and potential trade wars, yields on 

government bonds have dropped across the globe. Despite a 52 bps drop in the US Treasury from the end of 

July to the end of August, the yield on the US Treasury at 1.5 percent is the highest in the developed world. This 

is followed by the Italian 10-year note, down 54 basis points on the month to 1.0 percent at the end of the 

August. In the UK, 10-year government yields decreased by 13 bps to 0.48 percent; in Germany the decrease 

was 26 bps to -0.70 percent. In Japan, yields fell by just over 10 basis points to -0.27 percent. At the end of 

August, the hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year JGB stood at -72 bps, a 

decrease of 11 bps since July. The hedged yield differential between the 10-year Treasury and the 10-year Bund 

stands at -56 bps, a slight increase of 1 bps since the end of July. 

Yield(%)Yield(%)

5
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

G2SF CC yield, USD (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, USD

GNSF CC yield, USD (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs UST 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of August 2019.

The nominal yield on both the current coupon GNMA II and GNMA I securities decreased in August 2019. 

However, current coupon Ginnie Mae securities outyieldtheir Treasury counterparts (relative to the average 

of 5-and 10-year Treasury yields) by 72 and 74 bps on G2SF and GNSF, respectively, a widening of 15 and 13 

bps since last month. 

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%)

Yield(%)

6
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY

G2SF CC yield, JPY (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of August 2019.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look fair to favorable on a yield basis versus 

many sovereign alternatives. The figure below shows that the current coupon G2SF and GNSF hedged into 

Japanese yen is basically flat to the JGB 5/10 spread. More precisely, the G2SF hedged into Japanese yen has a 

yield of -1 bps versus the JGB 5/10 blend, while the GNSF hedged into Japanese yen has a yield of bps over the 

JGB 5/10 spread. This represents an improvement of 9 and 7 bps. respectively, since the end of July.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, JPY 

GNSF CC yield, JPY (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs JGB 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

7
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19

G2SF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

G2SF CC yield, EUR (left) G2SF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19

GNSF CC yield & nominal spread, EUR

GNSF CC yield, EUR (left) GNSF CC yield nominal spread vs GER 5/10 blend (50%/50%) (right)

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Data as of August 2019.

If Ginnie Mae securities are hedged into foreign currencies, they look fair to favorable on a yield basis versus 

sovereign alternatives. The figures below show that at the end of August, the current coupon G2SF has a 22 bp

higher yield than the than the average of the German 5/10 blend, while the GNSF hedged into euros has a 

spread to the German 5/10 blend of 24 bps. This represents a 17 and 15 bpincrease for each respectively since 

the end of July. 

Yield(%) Yield(%)

Yield(%) Yield(%)

8
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Sources: Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors. Note: Yields are in base currency of security and unhedged. 

Data as of July 2019.

US MBS yields are about the same or higher than most securities with the same or longer durations. The only 

asset class with significantly more yield is the US high yield index. Duration, a measure of sensitivity to interest 

rate changes, does not fully capture the volatility of the high yield asset classes, as there is a large credit 

component. 

Security Duration Yield

US 5y 4.8 1.39

US 10y 9.2 1.50

GNMA II 3.0% 5.2 2.38

GNMA II 3.5% 3.4 2.36

JPY 5y 4.9 -0.35

JPY 10y 10.1 0.05

GER 5y 5.2 -0.93

GER 10y 10.0 -0.70

ITA 5y 4.6 0.38

ITA 10y 8.7 1.00

US credit 3.0 2.74

US credit >= A 7.4 2.35

US HY 3.3 5.72

Pan-Euro Corp 5.7 0.53

Pan-Euro HY 3.1 3.78

US 5y US 10y

G2 3.5%

G2 3.0%

JPY 5y

GER 10y

GER 5y

JPY 10y

ITA 5y

ITA 10y

US Credit

US Credit>=A

US HY

Pan-Euro 

Corp

Pan-Euro HY

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Yield

Duration

Yield versus duration

9
Relative Attractiveness of US Fixed 

Income and Ginnie Mae MBS

Average Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.54 0.83 1.06 0.57 0.55 0.46

3 year 0.18 0.21 0.39 0.18 0.51 0.36

5 year 0.21 0.25 0.38 0.25 0.41 0.36

10 year 0.27 0.27 0.48 0.43 0.70 0.75

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Average Excess Return (Per Month)

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.36 0.65 0.87 0.62 0.36 0.52

3 year 0.06 0.09 0.26 0.24 0.38 0.42

5 year 0.13 0.17 0.30 0.30 0.33 0.41

10 year 0.23 0.23 0.44 0.44 0.65 0.77

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Standard Deviation

Time Period US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield* Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.79 1.35 1.40 0.84 1.85 1.52

3 year 0.67 1.10 1.18 0.79 1.19 1.06

5 year 0.58 1.06 1.19 0.98 1.57 1.35

10 year 0.68 1.05 1.19 1.14 1.76 1.76

Source: State Street

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer

Sharpe Ratio

TimePeriod US MBS 

Ginnie Mae US Treasury US Credit Corp Pan Euro Credit Corp US High Yield Pan EuroHigh Yield*

1 year 0.45 0.48 0.62 0.75 0.19 0.34

3 year 0.09 0.08 0.22 0.30 0.32 0.40

5 year 0.22 0.16 0.25 0.31 0.21 0.30

10 year 0.33 0.22 0.37 0.39 0.37 0.44

*Assumes 2% capitalization max per issuer on high yield indices

Sources: Barclays Indices, Bloomberg and State Street Global Advisors Note: Data as of August 2019.

The average return on the Ginnie Mae index over the past decade is equal to the US Treasury index. However, the 

standard deviation of the Ginnie Mae index is the lowest of any sector, as it has the least price volatility over a 1, 

3, 5 and 10 year horizon. The result: The Sharpe Ratio, or excess return per unit of risk over the 10-year horizon is 

only marginally lower than most of the corporate indices, although a good bit higher than the US Treasury Index, 

which has a much higher standard deviation than the Ginnie Mae index.

10
State of the US Housing Market

5.4%

3.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jun-00

Dec-00

Jun-01

Dec-01

Jun-02

Dec-02

Jun-03

Dec-03

Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Year-over-year growth rate

National Year-Over-Year HPI Growth

Black Knight HPI year-over-year Zillow HVI year-over-year

Sources: Black Knight, Zillow, and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of June 2019.

0.74%

0.67%

3.45%

1.87%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

4Q053Q062Q071Q084Q083Q092Q101Q114Q113Q122Q131Q144Q143Q152Q161Q174Q173Q182Q19

Serious delinquency rates

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA VA

Sources: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, MBA Delinquency Survey and Urban Institute.

Note: Serious delinquency is defined as 90 days or more past due or in the foreclosure process. Data as of Q2 2019.

Serious Delinquency Rates: Single-Family Loans

Serious delinquencies rates for single-family GSE loans, FHA loans, and VA loans continued to decline in Q2 2019. 

GSE delinquencies remain slightly higher relative to 2006-2007, while FHA and VA delinquencies (which are higher 

than their GSE counterparts) are at levels lower than 2006-2007. After touching 6.5 percent in early 2018, yearover-year house price appreciation has slowed considerably over the past year. It appears to have stabilized at 3.8 

percent on the Black Knight index; it fell to 5.4 percent in June 2019 on the Zillow index.

11
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources:Black Knight and Urban Institute. Note: HPI data as of June 2019. Negative sign indicates that state is above earlier peak. Peak refers to the month when 

HPI reached the highest level for each state/US during the housing boom period, ranging from 09/2005 to 09/2008. Trough represents the month when HPI fell to 

the lowest level for each state/US after the housing bust, ranging from 01/2009 to 03/2012. Current is 06/2019, the latest HPI data period.

Nationally, nominal home prices have increased by 54.3 percent since the trough, and now exceed their pre-crisis 

peak valuation on a nominal basis by 14.9 percent. The picture is very different across states, with many states well in 

excess of the prior peak, while a number of states remain more than 9 percent below peak levels: Connecticut (12.1% 

below), Florida (9.5% below), and Nevada (9.4% below).

HPI Changes

State 2000 to Peak Peak to Trough Trough to Current YOY CurrentHPI % Above Peak

National 75.6% -25.5% 54.3% 3.8% 14.9%

Alabama 44.0% -15.4% 31.2% 5.8% 11.0%

Alaska 69.5% -3.1% 23.3% 1.5% 19.4%

Arizona 110.2% -47.9% 80.1% 5.9% -6.2%

Arkansas 41.8% -10.8% 25.8% 3.3% 12.2%

California 155.3% -43.4% 90.3% 1.3% 7.8%

Colorado 40.2% -12.8% 80.3% 4.0% 57.3%

Connecticut 92.4% -24.6% 16.6% 1.9% -12.1%

Delaware 94.8% -23.7% 25.4% -0.1% -4.4%

District of Columbia 175.5% -13.5% 54.2% 1.2% 33.3%

Florida 129.0% -47.0% 70.7% 4.2% -9.5%

Georgia 38.3% -32.0% 66.4% 5.4% 13.2%

Hawaii 162.1% -22.1% 51.4% 2.9% 17.9%

Idaho 71.7% -28.5% 82.3% 10.9% 30.5%

Illinois 61.6% -34.5% 41.2% 2.0% -7.5%

Indiana 21.2% -7.6% 35.5% 5.5% 25.2%

Iowa 28.4% -4.9% 27.4% 3.3% 21.2%

Kansas 34.7% -9.3% 40.1% 3.5% 27.0%

Kentucky 29.5% -7.6% 31.4% 4.6% 21.3%

Louisiana 48.7% -5.0% 24.0% 2.8% 17.8%

Maine 82.4% -12.5% 32.8% 2.4% 16.2%

Maryland 129.4% -28.6% 28.2% 2.1% -8.4%

Massachusetts 92.6% -22.8% 56.3% 3.8% 20.7%

Michigan 24.1% -39.5% 80.4% 5.4% 9.1%

Minnesota 66.4% -27.6% 57.1% 4.4% 13.7%

Mississippi 41.1% -13.7% 24.0% 1.6% 7.0%

Missouri 42.8% -14.7% 36.5% 8.3% 16.4%

Montana 81.0% -10.7% 51.2% 5.0% 35.0%

Nebraska 26.6% -6.8% 41.8% 3.9% 32.2%

Nevada 126.9% -59.3% 122.8% 4.4% -9.4%

New Hampshire 90.7% -23.6% 41.3% 4.7% 8.1%

New Jersey 117.9% -27.8% 28.2% 3.2% -7.5%

New Mexico 66.9% -16.2% 23.8% 4.9% 3.8%

New York 98.7% -15.2% 40.4% 3.0% 19.1%

North Carolina 40.6% -15.6% 36.8% 5.3% 15.5%

North Dakota 54.1% -3.9% 56.4% 1.4% 50.4%

Ohio 21.2% -18.4% 37.7% 5.0% 12.4%

Oklahoma 37.5% -2.3% 19.0% 3.1% 16.2%

Oregon 82.4% -28.0% 79.9% 3.6% 29.6%

Pennsylvania 70.2% -11.7% 26.5% 4.4% 11.7%

Rhode Island 131.2% -34.5% 50.8% 4.5% -1.2%

South Carolina 44.8% -19.3% 35.6% 4.9% 9.4%

South Dakota 45.1% -4.0% 45.4% 4.8% 39.6%

Tennessee 35.2% -11.8% 45.0% 6.1% 27.8%

Texas 33.3% -5.7% 51.1% 3.1% 42.5%

Utah 54.5% -21.8% 75.0% 7.6% 36.8%

Vermont 83.5% -7.5% 32.5% 5.4% 22.6%

Virginia 99.4% -22.7% 27.5% 3.4% -1.5%

Washington 85.4% -28.7% 87.9% 3.7% 34.0%

West Virginia 43.0% -6.0% 22.1% 4.1% 14.8%

Wisconsin 44.8% -16.2% 37.9% 5.0% 15.6%

Wyoming 77.0% -5.6% 29.1% 5.1% 21.8%

12
State of the US Housing Market

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Agency Issuance (past 1 year) Agency Outstanding 

State Ginnie Mae Share Ginnie Mae Average

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan 

Size (Thousands)

Ginnie Mae 

Share

Ginnie Mae Average 

Loan Size (Thousands)

GSE Average Loan Size 

(Thousands)

National 33.2% 221.9 236.8 30.2% 165.0 188.1

Alabama 43.8% 169.1 190.2 44.5% 128.8 151.8

Alaska 51.1% 285.4 254.7 51.2% 233.3 198.9

Arizona 32.0% 223.8 226.2 30.8% 166.3 178.8

Arkansas 43.1% 147.6 172.1 44.0% 110.9 137.5

California 28.1% 360.2 344.2 20.7% 269.4 267.2

Colorado 32.4% 304.8 291.7 26.7% 220.3 225.3

Connecticut 31.9% 218.8 229.4 29.4% 183.4 188.5

Delaware 37.6% 220.3 229.7 36.1% 180.6 184.1

District of Columbia 18.4% 429.0 365.9 15.8% 302.7 302.1

Florida 39.8% 216.2 214.9 34.9% 166.0 171.2

Georgia 39.9% 193.3 216.1 38.2% 143.5 170.1

Hawaii 39.6% 501.8 405.3 30.3% 390.9 316.2

Idaho 32.3% 217.4 218.3 31.3% 155.2 167.1

Illinois 26.3% 181.5 203.0 24.5% 141.7 160.4

Indiana 36.9% 148.6 163.9 37.3% 111.6 126.2

Iowa 27.2% 149.5 167.5 25.6% 114.4 131.2

Kansas 35.7% 159.2 180.4 35.2% 120.5 139.0

Kentucky 39.5% 155.0 172.0 38.6% 121.9 132.7

Louisiana 42.6% 173.8 196.7 41.5% 137.3 158.8

Maine 34.9% 190.2 207.2 32.3% 153.3 160.3

Maryland 44.0% 289.7 270.8 39.0% 232.8 218.5

Massachusetts 24.5% 303.7 293.0 19.3% 237.7 227.9

Michigan 25.1% 153.5 175.5 24.9% 114.0 134.9

Minnesota 24.1% 207.5 219.1 23.7% 156.9 170.8

Mississippi 50.6% 157.9 177.0 50.0% 120.3 142.0

Missouri 35.2% 157.9 178.0 34.6% 121.2 139.0

Montana 29.9% 226.1 229.8 29.2% 170.4 177.1

Nebraska 32.7% 171.6 176.7 32.7% 123.2 137.8

Nevada 34.8% 263.9 245.1 34.4% 188.7 191.9

New Hampshire 31.6% 243.3 232.2 28.9% 194.0 181.1

New Jersey 29.5% 259.9 271.6 27.1% 211.4 218.6

New Mexico 41.7% 186.3 194.4 42.1% 141.4 153.0

New York 25.1% 252.9 279.4 25.1% 187.3 214.9

North Carolina 34.4% 189.4 213.2 33.4% 141.8 166.3

North Dakota 30.6% 215.7 208.0 26.1% 168.3 166.2

Ohio 34.3% 148.4 161.1 35.5% 112.9 126.6

Oklahoma 45.0% 158.3 176.9 47.5% 119.3 140.2

Oregon 27.7% 271.0 269.9 23.2% 200.1 207.7

Pennsylvania 32.0% 170.7 199.0 32.2% 136.9 158.4

Rhode Island 38.9% 239.3 230.6 33.5% 188.7 182.6

South Carolina 39.5% 192.4 201.3 37.0% 147.7 161.0

South Dakota 37.9% 181.9 191.2 35.5% 143.7 149.7

Tennessee 39.7% 192.8 208.9 39.2% 139.4 164.4

Texas 34.2% 204.4 222.4 35.1% 143.0 175.4

Utah 27.9% 259.8 267.7 27.2% 192.0 208.1

Vermont 22.8% 191.8 204.9 20.0% 165.4 159.6

Virginia 44.9% 276.8 266.7 40.8% 222.8 216.3

Washington 31.2% 304.4 302.3 27.2% 220.1 228.9

West Virginia 49.2% 158.2 159.6 45.7% 126.7 127.1

Wisconsin 22.2% 174.8 183.0 20.6% 134.4 141.5

Wyoming 41.5% 220.7 220.9 39.7% 178.1 176.3

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Ginnie Mae outstanding share are based on loan balance as of July 2019. Ginnie Mae issuance is based on the last 12 months, 

from July 2018 to July 2019.

Ginnie Mae MBS constitute 30.2 percent of outstanding agency issuance by loan balance and 33.2 percent of new 

issuance over the past year. However, the Ginnie Mae share varies widely across states, with the share of 

outstanding (by loan balance) as low as 15.8 percent in the District of Columbia and as high as 51.2 percent in 

Alaska. In general, the Ginnie Mae share is higher in states with lower home prices.

13
State of the US Housing Market

$10.9

$16.6

$27.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Q1

$ Trillions

Value of the US Housing Market

Debt, household mortgages Household equity Total Value

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Data as of Q1 2019.

$0.46

$0.52

$6.68

$3.24

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Q1

$ Trillions

Size of the US Residential Mortgage Market

Private Label Securities Second Liens Agency MBS Unsecuritized first liens

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds, Inside Mortgage Finance, eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Unsecuritized first liens includes loans held by commercial banks, GSEs, savings institutions, and credit unions. Data as of Q1 2019.

The Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report has consistently indicated an increasing total value of the housing 

market driven by growing household equity since 2012, and 2019 Q1 was no different. Total mortgage debt 

outstanding increased slightly to $10.9 trillion and household equity increased slightly to $16.6 trillion, bringing 

the total value of the housing market to $27.5 trillion, 15 percent higher than the pre-crisis peak in 2006. Agency 

MBS make up 61.3 percent of the total mortgage market, private-label securities make up 4.2 percent, and 

unsecuritized first liens at the GSEs, commercial banks, savings institutions, and credit unions make up 29.7 

percent. Second liens comprise the remaining 4.8 percent of the total.

14
State of the US Housing Market

As of July 2019, outstanding securities in the agency market totaled $6.78 trillion: 42.7 percent Fannie Mae, 27.6 

percent Freddie Mac, and 29.7 percent Ginnie Mae MBS. Ginnie Mae has more outstandings than Freddie Mac. 

Within the Ginnie Mae market, both FHA and VA have grown very rapidly post-crisis. FHA comprises 59.4 percent 

of total Ginnie Mae MBS outstanding, while VA comprises 34.7 percent.

$2.89

$1.87

$2.01

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

$ Trillions

Outstanding Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

$1.2

$0.7

$0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

$ Trillions

Outstanding Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note:Data as of July 2019.

15
State of the US Housing Market

$0.36

$0.17

$0.02

$0.37

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Q1-Q2

$ trillions

First Lien Origination Volume Portfolio

PLS securitization

FHA/VA securitization

GSE securitization

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q2 2019.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Q1-Q2

First Lien Origination Share

In the first half of 2019, first lien originations totaled $920 billion, up from $825 billion in 1H 2018. The share of 

portfolio originations was 40.2 percent in 1H 2019, up significantly from 32.3 percent in the same period of 2018. 

The GSE share was down at 39.0 percent, compared to 43.9 percent in H1 2018. The FHA/VA share fell slightly, at 

18.7 percent compared to 21.9 percent in the same period last year. Private-label securitization at 2.1 percent was 

slightly above the 2.0 percent one year ago, but remains a fraction of its share in the pre-bubble years.

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q2 2019. 

40.2%

2.1%

18.7%

39.0%

16
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $80.2 $18.8 $3.2 $102.2

2001 $133.8 $34.7 $3.1 $171.5

2002 $128.6 $37.9 $2.5 $169.0

2003 $147.9 $62.7 $2.5 $213.1

2004 $85.0 $31.8 $2.5 $119.2

2005 $55.7 $23.5 $2.1 $81.4

2006 $51.2 $23.2 $2.3 $76.7

2007 $67.7 $24.2 $3.0 $94.9

2008 $221.7 $39.0 $6.9 $267.6

2009 $359.9 $74.6 $16.8 $451.3

2010 $304.9 $70.6 $15.3 $390.7

2011 $216.1 $82.3 $16.9 $315.3

2012 $253.4 $131.3 $20.3 $405.0

2013 $239.2 $132.2 $22.2 $393.6

2014 $163.9 $111.4 $21.0 $296.3

2015 $261.5 $155.6 $19.2 $436.3

2016 $281.8 $206.5 $19.9 $508.2

2017 $257.6 $177.8 $20.2 $455.6

2018 $222.6 $160.8 $17.2 $400.6

2019 YTD $133.4 $98.8 $7.8 $240.0

2019 YTD % Change YOY 3.3% 3.5% -20.9% 2.4%

2019 Ann. $228.7 $169.3 $13.4 $411.4

Agency Gross Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $202.8 $157.9 $360.6 $102.2 $462.8

2001 $506.9 $378.2 $885.1 $171.5 $1,056.6

2002 $710.0 $529.0 $1,238.9 $169.0 $1,407.9

2003 $1,174.4 $700.5 $1,874.9 $213.1 $2,088.0

2004 $517.5 $355.2 $872.6 $119.2 $991.9

2005 $514.1 $379.9 $894.0 $81.4 $975.3

2006 $500.2 $352.9 $853.0 $76.7 $929.7

2007 $633.0 $433.3 $1,066.2 $94.9 $1,161.1

2008 $562.7 $348.7 $911.4 $267.6 $1,179.0

2009 $817.1 $462.9 $1,280.0 $451.3 $1,731.3

2010 $626.6 $377.0 $1,003.5 $390.7 $1,394.3

2011 $578.2 $301.2 $879.3 $315.3 $1,194.7

2012 $847.6 $441.3 $1,288.8 $405.0 $1,693.8

2013 $749.9 $426.7 $1,176.6 $393.6 $1,570.2

2014 $392.9 $258.0 $650.9 $296.3 $947.2

2015 $493.9 $351.9 $845.7 $436.3 $1,282.0

2016 $600.5 $391.1 $991.6 $508.2 $1,499.8

2017 $531.3 $345.9 $877.3 $455.6 $1,332.9

2018 $480.9 $314.1 $795.0 $400.6 $1,195.3

2019 YTD $264.2 $202.3 $466.5 $240.0 $706.5

2019 YTD % Change YOY -4.6% 17.1% 3.7% 2.4% 3.3%

2019 Ann. $452.9 $346.9 $799.7 $411.4 $1,211.1

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute (top and bottom). 

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of July 2019.

Agency gross issuance was $706.5 billion in the first seven months of 2019, up 3.3 percent compared to the same 

period in 2018. Ginnie Mae gross issuance was up by 2.4 percent and GSE gross issuance was up by 3.7 percent. 

Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA was up by 3.3 percent and VA origination was up by 3.5 percent. While 

origination volumes were lower in January and February, a favorable rate environment has led to in increase in 

issuance year-over-year.

17
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Ginnie Mae Breakdown: Net Issuance

Issuance Year FHA VA Other Total

2000 $29.0 $0.3 $0.0 $29.3

2001 $0.7 -$10.6 $0.0 -$9.9

2002 -$22.5 -$28.7 $0.0 -$51.2

2003 -$56.5 -$21.1 $0.0 -$77.6

2004 -$45.2 $5.1 $0.0 -$40.1

2005 -$37.3 -$12.1 $7.2 -$42.2

2006 -$4.7 $3.8 $1.2 $0.2

2007 $20.2 $8.7 $2.0 $30.9

2008 $173.3 $17.7 $5.4 $196.4

2009 $206.4 $35.1 $15.8 $257.4

2010 $158.6 $29.6 $10.0 $198.3

2011 $102.8 $34.0 $12.8 $149.6

2012 $58.9 $45.9 $14.3 $119.1

2013 $20.7 $53.3 $13.9 $87.9

2014 -$4.8 $53.9 $12.5 $61.6

2015 $22.5 $66.9 $7.9 $97.3

2016 $45.6 $73.2 $6.0 $124.9

2017 $50.1 $76.1 $5.0 $131.3

2018 $49.2 $61.2 $3.5 $113.9

2019 YTD $26.2 $30.8 $0.8 $57.8

2019 YTD % Change YOY 2.3% -9.7% -62.8% -6.6%

2019 Ann. $45.0 $52.8 $1.4 $99.1

Agency Net Issuance

Issuance Year Fannie Mae Freddie Mac GSE Total Ginnie Mae Total

2000 $92.0 $67.8 $159.8 $29.3 $189.1

2001 $216.6 $151.8 $368.4 -$9.9 $358.5

2002 $218.9 $138.3 $357.2 -$51.2 $306.1

2003 $293.7 $41.1 $334.9 -$77.6 $257.3

2004 $32.3 $50.2 $82.5 -$40.1 $42.4

2005 $62.5 $111.7 $174.2 -$42.2 $132.0

2006 $164.3 $149.3 $313.6 $0.2 $313.8

2007 $296.1 $218.8 $514.9 $30.9 $545.7

2008 $213.0 $101.8 $314.8 $196.4 $511.3

2009 $208.1 $42.5 $250.6 $257.4 $508.0

2010 -$156.4 -$146.8 -$303.2 $198.3 -$105.0

2011 -$32.6 -$95.8 -$128.4 $149.6 $21.2

2012 $32.9 -$75.3 -$42.4 $119.1 $76.8

2013 $57.5 $11.6 $69.1 $87.9 $157.0

2014 $0.5 $30.0 $30.5 $61.6 $92.1

2015 $10.2 $65.0 $75.1 $97.3 $172.5

2016 $68.6 $66.8 $135.5 $125.3 $260.8

2017 $90.2 $78.2 $168.5 $131.3 $299.7

2018 $79.4 $68.4 $147.7 $113.9 $261.6

2019 YTD $28.1 $54.1 $82.2 $57.8 $140.0

2019 YTD % Change YOY -25.9% 83.6% 21.9% -6.6% 8.3%

2019 Ann. $48.2 $92.7 $140.9 $99.1 $240.1

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian 

Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of July 2019.

Agency net issuance totaled $140.0 billion in the first seven months of 2019, up 8.3 percent compared to the same period in 

2018. Ginnie Mae net issuance was $57.8 billion, comprising 41.3 percent of total agency net issuance. Ginnie Mae net 

issuance was down 6.6 percent compared to the same period in 2018. Ginnie Mae net issuance in the first seven months of 

2019 was comprised of 53.3 percent VA and 45.4 percent FHA. 

18
US Agency Market, Originations

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note : Dollar amounts are in billions. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. All data is as of July 2019.

Agency gross issuance moves inversely to interest rates, generally declining as interest rates rise, increasing when 

interest rates fall, but the seasonal trend is also very strong. This table allows for a comparison with the same 

month in previous years. In 2019, January and February were lower than 2018, March was about the same, while 

April through July have been much higher, benefitting from the decline in interest rates. The July 2019 gross 

agency issuance of $134.5 billion is well above the July 2018 level of $102.1 billion. 

Date

Gross Issuance Net Issuance

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae Total

Jan-16 $35.6 $22.5 $32.5 $90.6 -$0.6 $1.0 $7.3 $7.8

Feb-16 $32.4 $21.2 $30.5 $84.1 $2.4 $3.1 $8.4 $13.9

Mar-16 $39.7 $27.5 $32.9 $100.1 $7.9 $8.2 $9.6 $25.8

Apr-16 $43.8 $26.2 $40.1 $110.1 $0.8 -$0.2 $8.8 $9.4

May-16 $44.2 $29.9 $41.6 $115.6 $2.4 $4.4 $11.4 $18.3

Jun-16 $46.7 $30.1 $43.9 $120.8 $2.7 $3.0 $11.9 $17.7

Jul-16 $49.8 $35.3 $46.1 $131.1 $2.3 $6.3 $10.8 $19.4

Aug-16 $54.9 $37.9 $46.7 $139.5 $10.4 $11.0 $13.8 $35.2

Sep-16 $65.8 $44.0 $52.5 $162.4 $8.7 $9.0 $12.5 $30.2

Oct-16 $66.0 $35.9 $47.4 $149.3 $11.8 $2.7 $9.3 $24.5

Nov-16 $48.8 $40.2 $47.2 $136.3 -$3.5 $7.9 $10.3 $14.8

Dec-16 $72.7 $40.5 $46.8 $160.0 $23.3 $10.4 $10.8 $44.6

Jan-17 $55.6 $38.5 $42.6 $136.6 $10.3 $10.7 $10.3 $31.9

Feb-17 $37.6 $27.4 $33.1 $98.1 $3.1 $6.5 $9.2 $18.9

Mar-17 $39.5 $24.4 $31.3 $95.2 $10.3 $6.2 $9.6 $26.3

Apr-17 $39.3 $21.2 $36.4 $97.0 $4.8 $0.4 $11.7 $17.3

May-17 $40.3 $22.6 $36.4 $99.3 $7.6 $2.7 $13.1 $23.6

Jun-17 $45.7 $25.1 $39.9 $110.7 $8.3 $2.4 $13.2 $24.1

Jul-17 $45.3 $27.6 $40.6 $113.5 $5.8 $3.5 $12.1 $21.5

Aug-17 $49.1 $29.3 $42.8 $121.1 $12.0 $6.7 $15.6 $33.9

Sep-17 $47.3 $27.9 $40.2 $115.5 $7.4 $3.8 $10.5 $21.7

Oct-17 $42.9 $34.6 $38.4 $115.9 $6.4 $12.5 $10.7 $29.6

Nov-17 $43.5 $37.2 $37.8 $118.5 $4.6 $13.6 $8.2 $26.4

Dec-17 $45.3 $30.0 $36.2 $111.5 $9.6 $8.2 $6.8 $24.6

Jan-18 $47.4 $21.4 $35.2 $104.0 $12.4 $0.3 $7.8 $20.6

Feb-18 $40.3 $21.5 $31.9 $93.7 $8.0 $2.3 $7.1 $17.4

Mar-18 $35.6 $21.3 $29.0 $85.9 $4.9 $3.0 $6.1 $14.0

Apr-18 $36.3 $26.2 $32.7 $95.2 $1.7 $6.1 $9.1 $16.8

May-18 $38.9 $27.5 $33.7 $100.1 $4.5 $7.2 $10.6 $22.4

Jun-18 $38.2 $28.8 $35.6 $102.5 $2.2 $6.8 $10.5 $19.5

Jul-18 $40.3 $26.2 $35.6 $102.1 $4.2 $3.7 $10.7 $18.6

Aug-18 $50.4 $29.9 $37.5 $117.8 $14.9 $7.9 $12.8 $35.6

Sep-18 $41.8 $30.1 $34.8 $106.6 $5.7 $6.2 $9.1 $21.0

Oct-18 $39.8 $27.4 $33.2 $100.3 $10.1 $7.6 $12.1 $29.7

Nov-18 $35.1 $30.1 $32.4 $97.6 $2.6 $10.8 $9.6 $22.9

Dec-18 $36.9 $23.9 $28.4 $89.1 $8.2 $6.4 $8.4 $23.0

Jan-19 $33.3 $19.2 $29.0 $81.6 $5.5 $2.5 $9.5 $17.5

Feb-19 $27.3 $19.9 $23.5 $70.7 $1.2 $3.6 $4.6 $9.5

Mar-19 $29.6 $27.3 $26.6 $83.5 $1.9 $10.3 $5.8 $18.0

Apr-19 $33.1 $30.8 $32.9 $96.8 $0.6 $11.0 $8.5 $20.1

May-19 $44.5 $34.3 $38.8 $117.6 $7.0 $10.3 $9.4 $26.7

Jun-19 $44.6 $34.0 $43.3 $121.9 $1.6 $6.2 $9.2 $16.9

Jul-19 $36.9 $51.7 $45.9 $134.5 $10.3 $10.3 $10.8 $31.4

Monthly Agency Issuance

19
US Agency Market, Originations

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Mortgage Rate

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance

Freddie Mac (left) Fannie Mae (left) Ginnie Mae (left) Mortgage rate (right)

26.2%

38.8%

0.01%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Percent Refi

Percent Refi at Issuance: Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Based on at-issuance balance. Data as of June 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

Note: Based on at-issuance balance. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s 

Rural Development. Data as of July 2019.

The Ginnie Mae refi share stood at 31 percent in June 2019, below the 37-39 percent share for Fannie Mae and 

Freddie Mac. Within Ginnie Mae, VA had the highest refi share at 38.8 percent in July 2019, followed by FHA’s 

26.2 percent. In the spring and summer of 2018, refi share for all agencies fell sharply due to rising interest rates 

and seasonal upticks in purchase activity. The refi share stabilized after the summer surge in purchase activity 

ended; it ticked up in 2019 as rates fell.

20
Credit Box

41.5%

45.1%

71.1%

53.5%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Nov-13Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18Mar-19 Jul-19

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: Purchase Only Loans

Freddie Fannie Ginnie All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

The first time homebuyer share of Ginnie Mae purchase loans was 71.1 percent in July 2019, down slightly from 

its historical high in May. First time homebuyers comprise a significantly higher share of the Ginnie Mae 

purchase market than of the GSE purchase market, with first time homebuyers accounting for 45.1 percent and 

41.5 percent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase originations respectively. The bottom table shows that 

based on mortgages originated in July 2019, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average 

repeat buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, a much higher LTV and similar DTI.

Fannie Mae Freddie Mac Ginnie Mae All

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($ ) 247,586 277,500 246,360 270,924 220,991 273,719 234,516 274,337 

Credit Score 739.4 755.4 744.3 757.4 678.5 702.9 711.2 742.1

LTV (%) 88.8 79.6 87.2 79.7 96.9 95.3 92.3 83.8

DTI (%) 35.8 36.4 34.9 35.9 41.8 42.6 38.5 37.9

Loan Rate (%) 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.3

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed upfront mortgage insurance 

premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage insurance premium by 

subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of July 2019.

21
Credit Box

83.9%

54.3%

78.7%

71.1%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Nov-13Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18Mar-19 Jul-19

First-time homebuyer share (%)

First Time Homebuyer Share: 

Ginnie Mae Breakdown

FHA VA Other All

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019. “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the 

Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. 

Within the Ginnie Mae purchase market, 78.7 percent of FHA loans, 54.3 percent of VA loans and 83.9 percent of 

other loans represent financing for first-time home buyers in July 2019. The bottom table shows that based on 

mortgages originated in July 2019, the average first-time homebuyer was more likely than an average repeat 

buyer to take out a smaller loan, have a lower credit score, higher LTV and similar DTI.

FHA VA Other Ginnie Mae Total

First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat First-Time Repeat

Loan Amount ($) 214,546 233,743 262,837 316,310 150,288 167,745 220,991 273,719 

Credit Score 668.1 671.3 700.2 729.7 695.7 703.2 678.5 702.9

LTV (%) 95.5 93.9 99.6 96.3 99.1 99.3 96.9 95.3

DTI (%) 43.1 44.0 40.6 41.8 34.9 36.1 41.8 42.6

Loan Rate (%) 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Includes only purchase loans. Data as of July 2019.

22
Credit Box

Sources: Credit Bureau Data and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of August 2017.

FICO Score Distribution: Mortgage Owners vs All Consumers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

300-500500-520520-540540-560560-580580-600600-620620-640640-660660-680680-700700-720720-740740-760760-780780-800800-820820-850

All Consumers Mortgage owners

All Consumers- Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 503 524 587 682 774 813 822 839

Mortgage Owners-Percentiles

Minimum P5 P10 P25 P50 P75 P90 P95 Maximum

300 570 615 682 752 801 818 824 839

Consumers who have a mortgage are concentrated at the high end of the general credit score spectrum. The top 

table shows that the median FICO score for all consumers (682) is equal to the 25th percentile of those with a 

mortgage (682).

23
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 343,924 644 683 735 777 798 727 

Fannie 126,095 686 718 757 786 801 749 

Freddie 93,305 691 724 760 788 802 753 

Ginnie 124,524 622 644 676 724 772 686 

Refi FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 172,767 647 685 731 772 795 725 

Fannie 73,948 675 707 747 780 799 741 

Freddie 50,958 676 709 749 779 798 742 

Ginnie 47,861 614 643 678 721 766 683 

All FICO

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 516,691 645 684 733 775 797 726 

Fannie 200,043 682 714 753 784 801 746 

Freddie 144,263 686 719 756 785 801 749 

Ginnie 172,385 620 644 677 723 771 685 

Purchase FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 124,524 622 644 676 724 772 686 

FHA 74,481 615 637 663 696 734 669 

VA 40,842 630 663 715 768 795 714 

Other 9,201 640 659 692 733 768 697 

Refi FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 47,861 614 643 678 721 766 683 

FHA 24,422 605 634 663 695 730 665 

VA 23,355 625 659 700 748 783 701 

Other 84 646 673 697 734 767 701 

All FICO: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 172,385 620 644 677 723 771 685 

FHA 98,903 613 636 663 696 733 668 

VA 64,197 629 661 709 762 792 709 

Other 9,285 640 659 692 733 768 697 

July 2019 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of July 2019.

In July 2019, the median Ginnie Mae FICO score was 677 versus 753 for Fannie Mae and 756 for Freddie Mac. Note 

that the FICO score for the 10th percentile was 620 for Ginnie Mae, versus 682 for Fannie Mae and 686 for Freddie 

Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, FHA loans have a median FICO score of 663, VA loans have a median FICO score 

of 709 and other loans have a median FICO score of 692.

24
July 2019 Credit Box at a Glance

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 344,577 72.0 80.0 95.0 96.5 100.0 87.8 

Fannie 126,203 65.0 80.0 85.0 95.0 97.0 83.3 

Freddie 93,362 64.0 80.0 81.0 95.0 95.0 82.3 

Ginnie 125,012 92.6 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.6 96.4 

Refi LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 175,437 48.0 63.0 75.0 86.0 96.6 73.2 

Fannie 73,951 43.0 58.0 70.0 79.0 82.0 66.6 

Freddie 50,963 44.0 59.0 73.0 80.0 84.0 67.9 

Ginnie 50,523 72.5 83.9 89.0 98.3 100.0 88.2 

All LTV

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 520,014 59.0 75.0 86.5 96.5 98.7 82.9 

Fannie 200,154 52.0 69.0 80.0 92.0 97.0 77.1 

Freddie 144,325 53.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 95.0 77.2 

Ginnie 175,535 84.0 94.0 96.5 100.0 101.0 94.1 

Purchase LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 125,012 92.6 96.5 96.5 100.0 101.6 96.4 

FHA 74,793 93.1 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.5 95.2 

VA 40,933 91.0 100.0 100.0 102.2 103.0 98.1 

Other 9,286 95.1 99.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.2 

Refi LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 50,523 72.5 83.9 89.0 98.3 100.0 88.2 

FHA 25,194 70.7 81.6 86.5 93.8 98.1 84.9 

VA 25,236 74.7 86.9 96.5 100.0 101.0 91.6 

Other 93 61.5 84.0 93.0 99.2 101.0 87.8 

All LTV: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 175,535 84.0 94.0 96.5 100.0 101.0 94.1 

FHA 99,987 84.0 91.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 92.6 

VA 66,169 82.6 94.6 100.0 100.0 102.2 95.6 

Other 9,379 94.9 98.9 101.0 101.0 101.0 99.0 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the financed 

upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Data as of July 2019.

In July 2019, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) was 96.5 percent for Ginnie Mae, and 80 percent for both Fannie 

Mae and Freddie Mac. The 90th percentile was 101 percent for Ginnie Mae, 97 percent for Fannie Mae and 95 

percent for Freddie Mac. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median LTV was 96.5 for FHA, 100.0 for VA and 101.0 

for other programs. 

25
Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Purchase DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 344,134 24.0 31.0 39.0 45.0 49.9 38.0 

Fannie 126,199 22.0 29.0 37.0 44.0 48.0 36.0 

Freddie 93,360 22.0 29.0 36.0 43.0 47.0 35.3 

Ginnie 124,575 28.9 35.6 42.7 49.3 54.3 42.0 

Refi DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 157,788 23.0 30.0 38.0 44.0 48.7 36.6 

Fannie 73,924 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.4 

Freddie 50,949 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.4 

Ginnie 32,915 26.0 33.4 42.1 49.3 54.4 40.9 

All DTI

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 501,922 24.0 31.0 39.0 45.0 49.0 37.5 

Fannie 200,123 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.8 

Freddie 144,309 22.0 29.0 37.0 43.0 47.0 35.4 

Ginnie 157,490 28.3 35.1 42.6 49.3 54.3 41.8 

Purchase DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 124,575 28.9 35.6 42.7 49.3 54.3 42.0 

FHA 74,770 30.7 37.4 44.3 50.3 54.6 43.3 

VA 40,589 27.3 34.1 41.6 48.7 54.4 41.1 

Other 9,216 25.9 30.8 36.0 40.1 43.0 35.1 

Refi DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 32,915 26.0 33.4 42.1 49.3 54.4 40.9 

FHA 18,755 28.2 35.6 43.9 50.5 54.8 42.4 

VA 14,083 23.1 31.6 39.8 47.2 53.3 38.9 

Other 77 22.3 27.4 31.4 37.0 40.3 31.6 

All DTI: Ginnie Mae Breakdown By Source

Number of Loans P10 P25 Median P75 P90 Mean

All 157,490 28.3 35.1 42.6 49.3 54.3 41.8 

FHA 93,525 30.2 37.1 44.2 50.4 54.7 43.1 

VA 54,672 26.3 33.3 41.1 48.3 54.1 40.6 

Other 9,293 25.9 30.7 36.0 40.1 42.9 35.1 

July 2019 Credit Box at a Glance

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of 

Agriculture’s Rural Development. Data as of July 2019.

In July 2019, the median Ginnie Mae debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was 42.6 percent, considerably higher than the 37 

percent median DTI for both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The 90th percentile for Ginnie Mae was 54.3 percent, also 

much higher than the 47 percent DTI for the GSEs. Within the Ginnie Mae market, the median FHA DTI ratio was 

44.2 percent, versus 41.1 percent for VA and 36.0 percent for other lending programs. 

26
Credit Box: Historical

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for Purchase Loans 

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

FICO Scores for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO

Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

753

756

677

733

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

Nov-13Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18Mar-19 Jul-19

FICO Scores

FICO Scores for All Loans

Freddie Median FICO Fannie Median FICO Ginnie Median FICO All Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of July 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

The median FICO score for all agency loans originated in July 2019 was 733, relatively flat from the previous 

month. The figures show that the median FICO score for GinnieMae borrowers has always been considerably 

lower than for GSE borrowers. Since early 2019, the median FICO score for Ginnie borrowers has remained 

flat, while FICOs for Fannie and Freddie are higher. The difference between GinnieMae and GSE borrower 

FICOs is slightly wider for purchase loans than for refi loans.

27
Credit Box: Historical

96.5

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

LTV Ratio for Refinance Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Loan-to-Value Ratio

LTV Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median LTV Fannie Median LTV

Ginnie Median LTV All Median LTV

Median LTVs for Ginnie Mae loans have historically been at 96.5 percent, much higher than the 80 percent 

LTVs for the GSEs. Through time, both Ginnie Mae and GSE refinances have LTVs about 6-20 points lower 

than their purchase counterparts. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: In May 2017 Ginnie Mae began disclosing issuer-reported LTV for FHA loans, which includes the 

financed upfront mortgage insurance premium. To make it consistent with the previously reported LTV, we removed the financed upfront mortgage 

insurance premium by subtracting 169 bps from this new issuer-reported LTV. Sources and note apply to all three graphs. Data as of July 2019.

86.5

80

28
Credit Box: Historical

37.0

37.0

42.6

39.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19

Debt-to-Income Ratio

DTI Ratio for All Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

DTI Ratio for Refinance Loans 

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Debt-to-income Ratio

DTI Ratio for Purchase Loans

Freddie Median DTI Fannie Median DTI

Ginnie Median DTI All Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of July 2019.

Median debt-to-income ratios on Ginnie Mae loans have historically been in the low 40s, considerably higher 

than for the GSEs. DTIs have increased over the past two years for both Ginnie Mae and GSE loans, with the 

movement more pronounced for Ginnie Mae. Increases in DTI are very typical in an environment of rising 

interest rates and rising home prices. All three agencies have witnessed measurable declines in DTIs in spring 

and summer 2019 driven by lower interest rates.

29
95%

86%

66%

47%

35%

97%

85%

58%

38%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

95%

86%

69%

48%

36%

96%

84%

59%

39%

31%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

May 2017- July 2017 May 2019- July 2019

Credit Box: Historical

DTI < 35

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Ginnie Mae Share of Agency Market by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95 

35 ≤ DTI < 45 

99% 97% 92%

84%

71%

99% 95%

82%

62%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750

Credit score

Credit score

Credit score

DTI ≥ 45

This table shows Ginnie Mae’s share of agency high-LTV lending by DTI and FICO. In each DTI bucket, Ginnie 

Mae’s share is more concentrated in lower FICO scores than in higher FICO scores. In May 2019−July 2019, 

Ginnie Mae accounted for 96 percent of agency issuance for DTIs under 35 and FICOs below 640, compared to 

just 31 percent for DTIs below 35 and FICO 750 and higher. The Ginnie/GSE split in the 35-45 DTI bucket looks a 

lot like the below 35 percent DTI bucket. In May 2019− July 2019, Ginnie Mae’s share of issuance was higher for 

DTIs of 45 and above, as compared with the two lower DTI buckets. Ginnie Mae share of loans with a DTI of 45 

and above and a FICO of 680-700 was 82 percent; it was 58-59 percent for the same FICO in the lower DTI 

buckets. Comparing this period to 2 years earlier, it is clear that GSEs have stepped up their higher LTV lending in 

all but the lowest FICO buckets, taking market share from Ginnie Mae. 

30
High LTV Loans: Ginnie Mae vs. 

GSEs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute.

May 2017-July 2017

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 3.1% 5.9% 3.3% 8.1% 9.7% 30.0%

35 −45 5.4% 10.1% 5.4% 12.3% 10.3% 43.4%

≥ 45 3.8% 8.1% 3.7% 6.8% 4.2% 26.6%

All 12.2% 24.1% 12.4% 27.1% 24.2% 100.0%

May 2019-July 2019

FICO

DTI <640 640–680 680–700 700–750 ≥ 750 All

< 35 3.0% 4.6% 2.6% 7.3% 9.7% 27.2%

35 −45 5.5% 8.6% 4.6% 11.3% 10.3% 40.3%

≥ 45 5.0% 8.5% 4.1% 8.6% 6.4% 32.6%

All 13.4% 21.7% 11.3% 27.2% 26.4% 100.0%

Agency Market Share by DTI and FICO for Loans with LTV ≥ 95

Share of Loans with LTV ≥ 95

GinnieMae GSE All

May 2017-July 2017 71.4% 18.2% 36.9%

May 2019-July 2019 71.3% 21.1% 37.1%

Ginnie Mae dominates high-LTV lending, with 71.3 percent of its issuances in the May 2019-July 2019 period 

having LTVs of 95 or above, compared to 21.1 percent for the GSEs. The GSEs have increased their high-LTV 

lending share from 18.2 percent in May 2017−July 2017. Ginnie Mae’s high-LTV lending is down just slightly 

over the same period from 71.4 percent. As home prices have increased, the share of high-DTI lending (loans 

with DTI ≥ 45) has increased across the FICO spectrum.

31
Nonbank Originators

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development.Data as of July 2019.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Nonbank Origination Share: All Loans

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

85%

67%

62%

55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Refinance Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

All Fannie Freddie Ginnie

Nonbank Origination Share: 

Purchase Loans

The nonbank origination share has been rising steadily for all three agencies since 2013. The Ginnie Mae 

nonbank share has been consistently higher than the GSEs, standing just below the record high of 86 percent at 

85 percent in July 2019. Freddie and Fannie’s nonbank shares both grew in July, to 55 and 61 percent 

respectively (note that these numbers can be volatile on a month-to-month basis).Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and 

Freddie Mac all have higher nonbank origination shares for refi activity than for purchase activity. Freddie 

Mac’s nonbank share is the lowest among the three agencies for both purchase and refinance loans.

32
Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural 

Development.Data as of July 2019.

In July 2019, Ginnie Mae’s nonbank share remained flat at 85 percent. The nonbank originator share for FHA 

continued to grow, reaching a historical high of 92 percent. The nonbank originator share for VA was 77 

percent, and the nonbank originator share for other loans, which can fluctuate quite a bit month to month, 

increased to 85 percent.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originator Share: All Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Oct-13

Feb-14

Jun-14

Oct-14

Feb-15

Jun-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

Jun-16

Oct-16

Feb-17

Jun-17

Oct-17

Feb-18

Jun-18

Oct-18

Feb-19

Jun-19

Non-bank originator share

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Purchase Loans

All FHA VA Other

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Share: 

Refinance Loans

All FHA VA Other

92%

85%

77%

33
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of July 2019. 

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of July 2019. 

734

750

723

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

760

770

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Agency FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

FICO All Median FICO Bank Median FICO Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019. 

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

GSE FICO: Bank vs. Nonbank

Nonbank Credit Box

FICO FICO

Nonbank originators have played a key role in opening up access to credit. The median GSE and the median Ginnie Mae 

FICO scores for loans originated by nonbanks are lower than their bank counterparts. Within the GSE space, both bank 

and nonbank FICOs have been relatively flat since 2014. In contrast, within the Ginnie Mae space, FICO scores for 

bank originations are measurably higher since 2014 while nonbank FICOs have declined slightly. This largely reflects 

the sharp cut-back in FHA lending by many banks. 

34
Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019. 

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

GSE LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019. 

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

GSE DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

Nonbank Credit Box

Ginnie Mae LTV: Bank vs. Nonbank

Ginnie Mae DTI: Bank vs. Nonbank

LTV LTV

DTI DTI

The median LTVs for nonbank and bank originations are comparable, while the median DTI for nonbank loans is higher 

than for bank loans, indicating that nonbanks are more accommodating in both this and the FICO dimension. Since 

early 2017, there has been a substantial increase in DTIs, which has partially reversed in the past few months. This is 

true for both Ginnie Mae and the GSEs, for banks and nonbanks. As interest rates increased, DTIs rose, because 

borrower payments were driven up relative to incomes. With the fall in interest rates in 2019, DTIs have dropped.

35
650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

750

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA FICO Scores: Bank 

vs. Nonbank

VA All Median FICO VA Bank Median FICO

VA Nonbank Median FICO

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of July 2019.

The FICO scores for both Ginnie Mae nonbank and bank originators increased in July 2019. FICO spreads 

between banks and nonbanks have generally increased since 2013. The gap between banks and non-banks is 

very apparent in all programs backing Ginnie Mae securities: FHA, VA, and Other.

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

FICO score

Ginnie Mae FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median FICO Bank Median FICO

Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Ginnie Mae FHA FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

FHA All Median FICO FHA Bank Median FICO

FHA Nonbank Median FICO

650

660

670

680

690

700

710

720

730

740

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Ginnie Mae Other FICO Scores: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

Other All Median FICO Other Bank Median FICO

Other Nonbank Median FICO

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of June 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of June 2019.

36
90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae VA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median LTV VA Bank Median LTV

VA Nonbank Median LTV

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of July 2019.

An analysis of the loans backing Ginnie Mae origination indicates that there are virtually no differences in 

median LTV ratios between bank originated loans and nonbank originated loans. 

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Loan-to-value ratio

Ginnie Mae LTV: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median LTV Bank Median LTV

Nonbank Median LTV

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Ginnie Mae FHA LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median LTV FHA Bank Median LTV

FHA Nonbank Median LTV

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Ginnie Mae Other LTV: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median LTV Other Bank Median LTV

Other Nonbank Median LTV

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of July 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of July 2019.

37
34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

FICO scores

Ginnie Mae VA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

VA All Median DTI VA Bank Median DTI

VA Nonbank Median DTI

Ginnie Mae Nonbank Originators: 

Credit Box

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute

Note: “Other“ refers to loans insured by HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing 

and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development.Data as of July 2019.

An analysis of borrowers’ DTI ratios for bank versus non-bank originators indicates that the former have a 

lower median DTI. The DTIs for FHA and VA loans experienced notable increases since early 2017 for both 

bank and nonbank originations, while the Other origination DTIs stayed relatively flat. Rising DTIs are expected 

in a rising rate environment. After peaking in January 2019, Ginnie DTIs have trended downward, as rates have 

declined. 

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

FICO score

Ginnie Mae DTI: 

Bank vs. Nonbank

All Median DTI Bank Median DTI

Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Ginnie Mae FHA DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

FHA All Median DTI FHA Bank Median DTI

FHA Nonbank Median DTI

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

Ginnie Mae Other DTI: Bank vs. 

Nonbank

Other All Median DTI Other Bank Median DTI

Other Nonbank Median DTI

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of July 2019. Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute Note: Data as of July 2019.

38
Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of July 2019.

Top 30 Holders of Ginnie Mae Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs), by UPB

Rank MSR Holder UPB ($ millions) Share Cumulative 

Share

1 Wells Fargo $240,459 13.8% 13.8%

2 Lakeview $203,582 11.7% 25.5%

3 PennyMac $192,268 11.1% 36.6%

4 Freedom Home Mortgage $118,432 6.8% 43.4%

5 Nationstar $97,684 5.6% 49.0%

6 Quicken Loans $66,850 3.8% 52.8%

7 US Bank $59,771 3.4% 56.3%

8 JPMorgan Chase $44,264 2.5% 58.8%

9 Carrington Home Mortgage $42,390 2.4% 61.3%

10 USAA Federal Savings Bank $38,240 2.2% 63.5%

11 Caliber Home Loans $36,581 2.1% 65.6%

12 Newrez $27,187 1.6% 67.1%

13 Navy Federal Credit Union $25,886 1.5% 68.6%

14 AmerihomeMortgage $24,611 1.4% 70.0%

15 The Money Source $22,865 1.3% 71.3%

16 MidfirstBank $22,440 1.3% 72.6%

17 M&T Bank $20,355 1.2% 73.8%

18 Suntrust $18,859 1.1% 74.9%

19 Ditech Financial $18,458 1.1% 75.9%

20 Roundpoint $18,261 1.0% 77.0%

21 Home Point Financial $17,573 1.0% 78.0%

22 Guild Mortgage $16,042 0.9% 78.9%

23 Branch Banking and Trust $15,976 0.9% 79.8%

24 Loan Depot $15,248 0.9% 80.7%

25 Flagstar Bank $15,018 0.9% 81.6%

26 PHH Mortgage $14,956 0.9% 82.4%

27 Pingora $13,936 0.8% 83.2%

28 Citizens Bank $12,597 0.7% 84.0%

29 Bank of America $11,734 0.7% 84.6%

30 Fifth Third Bank $11,616 0.7% 85.3%

This table shows 30 largest owners of mortgage servicing rights (MSR) by UPB for Ginnie Mae securitizations. As 

of July 2019, over half (52.8 percent) of the Ginnie Mae MSRs are owned by the top six firms. The top 30 firms 

collectively own 85.3 percent. Seventeen of these 30 are non-depositories, the remaining 13 are depository 

institutions. 

39
67.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Share of outstanding loans by UPB

The composition of the largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSR has evolved quite a bit over time. In November 2013, 

Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase were the two largest owners of Ginnie Mae MSRs, holding $375 billion and 

$139 billion in servicing UPB respectively. Although Wells Fargo is still the largest player, its portfolio has shrunk 

to $240 billion. Lakeview, PennyMac Freedom Home Mortgage, and Nationstar (all nonbanks) make up the 

remainder of the top five largest holders of MSRs, owning $204 billion, $192 billion, $118 billion, and $98 billion 

respectively as of July 2019. As of July 2019, nonbanks collectively owned servicing rights for 66.7 percent of all 

outstanding unpaid principal balance guaranteed by Ginnie Mae. In December 2013, the nonbank share was much 

smaller at 27.7 percent. 

Holders of Ginnie Mae MSRs

Sources: eMBS and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of July 2019.

Share of Ginnie Mae MSRs held by Nonbanks

Top 5 MSR Holders: Outstanding Ginnie Mae Loans by UPB

$240,459

$192,268

$203,582

$118,432

$97,558

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

1. Wells Fargo 2. Lakeview

3. PennyMac 4. Freedom Home Mortgage

UPB ($ millions) 5. Nationstar

40
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2011 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2011 4.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

Prepayments on Ginnie Mae securities were lower than on GSE securities from 2011 through early-2013, but 

have been higher since. These increased Ginnie speeds reflect the growing share of VA loans, which tend to 

prepay faster than either FHA or GSE loans. In addition, FHA puts fewer restrictions on streamlined refinances, 

and unlike GSE streamline refinances, requires no credit report and no appraisal. Some of the upfront mortgage 

insurance premium can also be applied to the refinanced loan. 

From late 2016 to later 2018, as interest rates increased, the bulk of the mortgage universe found it noneconomic to refinance and the prepayment speeds for all agency MBS slowed substantially. The small month-tomonth variation in speeds reflected primarily seasonality and changes in day count. With the drop in rates 

beginning in late 2018, we have seen a notable pick-up in prepayment activity; we expect more as borrowers 

realize and act on the opportunity to refinance at attractive rates.

17%

14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19

Constant prepayment rate (%)

Aggregate Prepayments

Fannie CPR Freddie CPR Ginnie I CPR Ginnie II CPR

21%

17%

16%

15%

41
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2015 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2015 3.5 Coupon CPR

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2016 Issued 3.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2016 3.0 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

The 2015 Ginnie II 3.5s and the 2016 Ginnie II 3.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years, have 

prepaid consistently faster than their conventional counterparts. 2015 and 2016 originations are more heavily 

VA loans than the 2011 origination shown on the preceding page. VA loans prepay faster than either FHA or GSE 

loans. The FHA streamlined programs are likely another contributor to the faster speeds.

With the increase in interest rates over the 2 year period beginning in November 2016, the prepayment 

speeds for all agency MBS had slowed. From late 2016 to late 2018, with the bulk of the mortgage universe 

finding it non-economic to refinance, the muted month to month variations in speeds reflected seasonality, 

changes in day count and changes in mortgage interest rates. With the drop in rates beginning in late 2018, we 

have seen a notable pick up in prepayment activity in recent months; we expect more pickup as borrowers realize 

and act on the opportunity to refinance at attractive rates.

19%

13%

21%

17%

42
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.0 Coupon CPR

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 3.5 Coupon CPR

Fannie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 3.5 Coupon CPR

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Ginnie Mae securities season more slowly than their conventional counterparts; they generally have lower 

prepayment in the early months but are more interest rate responsive thereafter. The charts below show the 

behavior of the 2017-issued 3.5s and the 2018-issued 4.0s, the largest coupon cohorts of those vintage years. 

Despite slower seasoning, 2017 Ginnie II 3.5s have been prepaying faster than their conventional 

counterparts since late 2017, due primarily to fast VA prepayment speeds. Similarly, the 2018 Ginnie II 4.0s 

prepaid more slowly than their conventional counterparts until January of 2019. In 2019, speeds of all 2018 

4.0s have accelerated, and Ginnie II speeds have accelerated more than their conventional counterparts.

23%

16%

44% 

32%

43
Prepayments

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2017 Issued 4.0 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Freddie 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2017 4.0 Coupon CPR

Loan age

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Credit Suisse and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

The charts below show the prepayment speeds by loan age for 2017 Ginnie II 4.0s and 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s—the 

cohorts 50 basis points above the largest coupon cohort for those years. Prepayment speeds on the 2017 

Ginnie II 4.0s jumped up sharply at the 7-9 month loan age, reflecting abuse of the VA Streamlined Refi 

program (IRRRL). The 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s do not show increased speeds until the 9-10 month point; reflecting 

both the effect of lower rates and the actions taken by both Ginnie Mae and the VA in H1 2018 to curb this 

abuse. Ginnie Mae actions have included suspending a few servicers whose VA prepayment speeds are 

especially high from selling VA loans into Ginnie Mae II securities, as well as rewriting the pooling 

requirements so that if loans that do not meet the seasoning requirement are refinanced, the new loan is 

ineligible for securitization. Ginnie’s latest action on this front, effective for securities issued on or after Nov 1 

2019, will bar the securitization of over 90% LTV cash-out refinances into Ginnie I and Ginnie II pools (custom 

pools excepted.) In addition, VA has implemented a net tangible benefit test, requiring the lender to show the 

borrower has obtained a benefit from the refinance. Even so, the recent experience of the 2018 Ginnie II 4.5s 

indicates they are much more responsive to interest rate changes than conventional mortgages.

26.6%

22.7%

17.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Constant Prepayment Rate (%)

2018 Issued 4.5 Coupon CPR, by Loan Age

Fannie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Freddie 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR Ginnie II 2018 4.5 Coupon CPR

Loan age

39.6%

22.1%

18.3%

44
Reverse Mortgage Volumes

$1.09

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Jul-19

Mar-19

May-19

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

HMBS Issuance Volume

$54.5

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Jul-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

HMBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

Ginnie Mae reverse mortgage issuance has been volatile in recent months; after decreasing in June, the July 

2019 volume increased to $1.09 billion. Issuance has been declining since early 2018 largely due to the 

implementation of the new, lower principal limit factors. In July 2019, outstanding reverse mortgage securities 

totaled $54.5 billion, lower compared to recent past, reflecting a lower volume of new issuances. 

45
Multifamily Market

$1.3

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Jul-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Issuance

$121.7

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Jul-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

$ Billions

Ginnie Mae Multifamily MBS Outstanding 

Other Ginnie Mae Programs

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: Ginnie Mae and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

Ginnie Mae multifamily issuance volume in July 2019 totaled $1.3 billion, in increase from the past month but still 

below average issuance levels over the past 18 months. Outstanding multifamily securities totaled $121.2 billion 

in July.

46
Market Conditions

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

$241 

$596 

$35 

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

$ Billions

Average Daily Fixed Income Trading Volume by Sector

SF Agency MBS trading vol ($B) Treasury trading volume ($B) Corporates trading volume ($B)

3.60%

3.76%

0.38% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Percent

Average Daily Turnover by Sector 

Agency MBS Turnover Treasury Turnover Corporates Turnover

Agency MBS trading volume was $241 billion/day on average 2019 YTD, more robust than in the 2014-2018 

period, but well below the pre-crisis peak of $345 billion in 2008. In contrast, average daily trading volume for 

Treasuries now exceeds the pre-crisis peak. Agency MBS turnover in 2019 YTD also has been slightly higher 

than the 2014-2018 period; in the first five months of 2019, average daily MBS turnover was 3.60 percent, 

above the 2018 average of 3.39 percent. Both average daily mortgage and Treasury turnover are down from 

their pre-crisis peaks. Corporate turnover is miniscule relative to either Agency MBS or Treasury turnover. 

Sources: SIFMA and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

47
Market Conditions

$254.5

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Billions

Repo Volume: Securities In

$82.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ Billions

Dealer Net Positions: Federal Agency and GSE MBS

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Primary Dealer Statistics and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of August 2019.

Dealer net positions are near their post-crisis highs. By contrast, dealer gross positions have fallen 

dramatically. The volume of repurchase activity is up from the near 13-year low in 2017. The large decline 

through time reflects banks cutting back on lower margin businesses. 

48
MBS Ownership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1

GSEs

Commercial Banks

Federal Reserve

Broker/Dealers

REITs

Other

Who owns Total Agency Debt?

Mutual Funds

Money Market and Pension Funds

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2019.

Credit Unions

Foreign Investors

The largest holders of agency debt (Agency MBS + Agency notes and bonds) include the Federal Reserve (18 

percent), commercial banks (20 percent) and foreign investors (12 percent). The broker/dealer and GSE shares 

are a fraction of what they once were. 

Share of Total Agency Debt by Owner

49
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Sources: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q1 2019.

72.9%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1

Percent of MBS over Outstanding Agency Debt

MBS Share of Total Agency Debt

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank and Urban Institute. Note: Small domestic banks includes all domestically chartered commercial banks not 

included in the top 25. Data as of August 2019.

As Fannie and Freddie reduce the size of their retained portfolio, fewer agency notes and bonds are required to 

fund that activity, hence the MBS share of total agency debt increases. As of Q1 2019, the MBS share of total 

agency debt stood at 72.9 percent. Commercial banks are now the largest holders of Agency MBS. Out of their $2.0 

trillion in holdings as of the end of August 2019, $1.5 trillion was held by the top 25 domestic banks.

CommercialBank Holdings ($Billions) Week Ending

Jul-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug 7 Aug 14 Aug 21 Aug 28

Largest 25 

Domestic Banks 1,314.8 1,388.2 1,399.1 1,411.8 1,431.5 1,433.5 1,456.1 1,458.2 1,449.2 1,460.5 1,460.8 1,482.3

Small Domestic 

Banks 485.4 491.6 492.1 495.0 501.4 503.2 510.2 516.5 514.9 516.8 517.9 516.5

Foreign Related 

Banks 27.3 25.9 25.8 26.3 25.4 28.9 28.2 28.9 30.8 32.8 34.4 35.6

Total, 

Seasonally

Adjusted 1,827.5 1,905.7 1,917.0 1,933.1 1,958.3 1,965.6 1,994.5 2,003.6 1,994.9 2,010.1 2,013.1 2,034.4

50
MBS Ownership

Debt,

household 

mortgages,

$9,833

Top Bank & Thrift Residential MBS Investors Total ($MM) GSE PT ($MM)

GNMA PT 

($MM)

Agency REMIC 

($MM)

Non-Agency 

($MM)

Market 

Share

1 Bank of America Corporation $321,350 $189,813 $120,254 $11,182 $101 16.8%

2 Wells Fargo & Company $242,666 $170,698 $67,268 $3,437 $1,263 12.7%

3 JP Morgan Chase & Co. $122,486 $77,351 $32,145 $250 $12,740 6.4%

4 U S. Bancorp. $86,589 $40,367 $23,172 $23,050 $1 4.5%

5 Charles Schwab Bank $85,873 $50,421 $16,665 $18,787 $0 4.5%

6 Capital One Financial Corporation $66,636 $53,951 $3,427 $7,099 $2,159 3.5%

7 Citigroup Inc. $66,505 $28,528 $14,430 $22,657 $890 3.5%

8 Bank of New York Mellon Corp. $54,168 $31,612 $3,769 $17,473 $1,314 2.8%

9 PNC Bank, National Association $51,679 $43,569 $3,437 $2,467 $2,208 2.7%

10 Branch Banking and Trust Company $41,845 $19,522 $12,602 $7,084 $2,637 2.2%

11 State Street Bank and Trust Company $39,065 $13,582 $5,882 $19,219 $382 2.1%

12 E*TRADE Bank $26,428 $14,621 $7,586 $4,221 $0 1.4%

13 HSBC Banks USA, National Association $26,110 $6,683 $9,981 $9,444 $2 1.4%

14 KeyBank National Association $23,235 $11,550 $11,224 $462 $0 1.2%

15 SunTrust Bank $22,534 $1,683 $836 $20,015 $0 1.2%

16 Morgan Stanley $22,399 $13,594 $2,537 $3,462 $2,806 1.2%

17 Ally Bank $21,975 $10,778 $5,785 $4,517 $895 1.2%

18 The Northern Trust Company $21,969 $9,897 $3,365 $8,707 $0 1.2%

19 MUFG Union Bank $17,558 $11,200 $3,843 $2,513 $2 0.9%

20 Regions Bank $16,871 $5,293 $3,517 $7,140 $921 0.8%

Total Top 20 $1,377,942 $804,712 $351,724 $193,185 $28,321 72.2%

Sources: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of Q2 2019.

Out of the $1.8 trillion in MBS holdings at banks and thrifts as of Q2 2019, $1.4 trillion was agency pass-throughs: 

$1.0 trillion in GSE pass-throughs and $408 billion in Ginnie Mae pass-throughs. Another $422 billion was agency 

CMOs, while non-agency holdings totaled $40 billion. MBS holdings at banks and thrifts increased for the third 

quarter in a row in Q2 2019. This increase was broad based, coming from Ginnie Mae and GSE pass -throughs, 

agency CMOs as well as non-agency holdings. 

All Banks & Thrifts ($Billions)

Total Agency MBS PT GSE PT GNMA PT Agency CMO Private MBS PT Private CMO

2000 $683.90 $392.85 $234.01 $84.26 $198.04 $21.57 $71.43 

2001 $810.50 $459.78 $270.59 $109.53 $236.91 $37.62 $76.18 

2002 $912.36 $557.43 $376.11 $101.46 $244.98 $20.08 $89.88 

2003 $982.08 $619.02 $461.72 $75.11 $236.81 $19.40 $106.86 

2004 $1,113.89 $724.61 $572.40 $49.33 $208.18 $20.55 $160.55 

2005 $1,139.68 $708.64 $566.81 $35.92 $190.70 $29.09 $211.25 

2006 $1,207.09 $742.28 $628.52 $31.13 $179.21 $42.32 $243.28 

2007 $1,236.00 $678.24 $559.75 $31.58 $174.27 $26.26 $357.24 

2008 $1,299.76 $820.12 $638.78 $100.36 $207.66 $12.93 $259.04 

2009 $1,345.74 $854.40 $629.19 $155.00 $271.17 $7.53 $212.64 

2010 $1,433.38 $847.13 $600.80 $163.13 $397.30 $7.34 $181.61 

2011 $1,566.88 $917.10 $627.37 $214.81 $478.82 $3.28 $167.70 

2012 $1,578.86 $953.76 $707.87 $242.54 $469.27 $17.16 $138.67 

2013 $1,506.60 $933.73 $705.97 $231.93 $432.60 $26.11 $114.15 

2014 $1,539.32 $964.16 $733.71 $230.45 $449.90 $20.33 $104.94 

2015 $1,643.56 $1,115.40 $823.10 $292.30 $445.39 $11.14 $71.63 

1Q16 $1,660.58 $1,133.29 $833.25 $300.04 $448.63 $10.27 $68.39 

2Q 16 $1,684.33 $1,169.67 $867.64 $302.03 $440.25 $9.11 $65.29 

3Q16 $1,732.36 $1,227.52 $924.81 $302.71 $435.77 $7.90 $61.17 

4Q16 $1,736.93 $1,254.13 $930.67 $323.46 $419.80 $7.40 $55.60

1Q17 $1,762.38 $1,280.63 $950.72 $329.91 $419.34 $7.03 $55.39 

2Q17 $1,798.66 $1,320.59 $985.12 $335.47 $417.89 $6.38 $53.79 

3Q17 $1,838.93 $1,364.75 $1,012.89 $351.86 $418.08 $5.65 $50.45

4Q17 $1,844.15 $1,378.53 $1,010.83 $367.70 $413.97 $4.63 $47.01 

1Q18 $1,809.98 $1,352.28 $991.57 $360.71 $412.37 $3.92 $41.37

2Q18 $1,806.58 $1,345.80 $976.92 $368.88 $414.41 $7.45 $38.92

3Q18 $1,794.39 $1,339.72 $966.52 $373.21 $416.20 $2.42 $36.04 

4Q18 $1,814.97 $1,361.00 $980.56 $380.43 $419.59 $2.69 $34.69 

1Q19 $1,844.99 $1,385.10 $1,001.61 $383.49 $422.18 $3.06 $34.65 

2Q19 $1,907.13 $1,445.91 $1,037.93 $407.97 $421.56 $2.90 $36.76 

Bank and Thrift Residential MBS Holdings

51
Sources: SIFMA and Treasury International Capital (TIC). Note: Data as of Q1 2019.

15.4%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019

Percent of Agency MBS Owned by Foreigners

Foreign Share of Agency MBS

MBS Ownership

$1,041.2

$426.7

$614.6

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

$ Billions

Monthly Agency MBS Holdings by Foreigners

Total Agency MBS Held by Foreigners Foreign Official MBS Foreign Private MBS

Sources: Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. Note: Data as of May 2019. In December 2017, there was a data 

correction that moved about $120 billion from privately held U.S. agency bonds to officially held U.S. agency bonds; this resulted in a series 

break at December 2017 in the split between the portion held by foreign private and the portion held by foreign official.

Foreign investors held 15.4 percent of agency MBS in Q1 2019, up from a low of 11.8 percent in Q1 2014. For 

the month of May 2019, this represents $1.04 trillion in Agency MBS, $426.7 billion held by foreign private 

institutions and $614.6 billion held by foreign institutions. 

52
MBS Ownership

Agency MBS+ Agency Debt

Agency MBS Only (Estimates)

Sources :Treasury International Capital (TIC) and Urban Institute. 

Note: *calculated based on June 2018 report with amount asset backed per country. Revised to include Top 10 holders of MBS listed as of June 

2018. Monthly data as of May 2019.

The largest foreign holders of Agency MBS are Japan, Taiwan, and China; these three comprise over 70 percent 

of all foreign holdings. Between June 2018 and May 2019, we estimate China has increased their agency MBS 

holdings by $31.1 billion, Taiwan has increased their holdings by $16.7 billion, and Japan has increased their 

holdings by $39.0 billion.

Level of Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19

Q3 

2018

Q4 

2018

Q1 

2019 Apr-19 May-19

Japan 257,547 254,511 262,771 284,323 276,622 298,151 -3,036 8,260 21,552 -7,701 21,529

Taiwan 250,009 250,639 261,231 265,992 264,460 266,772 630 10,592 4,761 -1,532 2,312

China 180,635 190,203 188,921 208,540 213,992 213,678 9,568 -1,282 19,619 5,452 -314

Ireland 46,817 48,220 48,045 46,623 50,412 50,718 1,403 -175 -1,422 3,789 306

Luxembourg 36,372 38,800 50,079 44,561 47,524 47,055 2,428 11,279 -5,518 2,963 -469

South Korea 44,039 43,944 44,735 42,604 42,755 43,393 -95 791 -2,131 151 638

Bermuda 27,866 27,610 27,721 29,104 29,294 29,993 -256 111 1,383 190 699

Cayman Islands 31,017 31,638 31,379 30,375 33,588 35,181 621 -259 -1,004 3,213 1,593

Malaysia 12,710 12,874 12,671 12,395 12,430 12,351 164 -203 -276 35 -79

Netherlands 11,995 12,229 9,618 9,400 10,522 10,770 234 -2,611 -218 1,122 248

Rest of World 125,197 128,807 130,345 129,998 137,661 135,545 3,610 1,538 -347 7,663 -2,116

Total 1,024,200 1,039,475 1,067,516 1,103,915 1,119,260 1,143,607 15,275 28,041 36,399 15,345 24,347

Level of Holdings ($Millions)* Change in Holdings ($Millions)*

Country Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19

Q3 

2018

Q4 

2018

Q1 

2019 Apr-19 May-19

Japan 253,972 250,851 258,909 280,366 271,847 292,968 -3,121 8,058 21,457 -8,519 21,121

Taiwan 249,773 250,397 260,976 265,731 264,145 266,430 624 10,579 4,755 -1,586 2,285

China 176,345 185,811 184,287 203,791 208,262 207,458 9,466 -1,524 19,504 4,471 -804

Ireland 37,832 39,021 38,339 36,677 38,411 37,692 1,189 -682 -1,662 1,734 -720

Luxembourg 34,012 36,384 47,530 41,949 44,372 43,633 2,372 11,146 -5,581 2,423 -738

South Korea 33,064 32,708 32,879 30,455 28,096 27,482 -356 171 -2,424 -2,359 -615

Bermuda 24,969 24,644 24,592 25,897 25,425 25,793 -325 -53 1,306 -473 368

Cayman Islands 24,384 24,847 24,214 23,033 24,729 25,565 463 -634 -1,181 1,696 836

Malaysia 12,319 12,474 12,249 11,962 11,908 11,784 155 -225 -286 -54 -124

Netherlands 11,437 11,658 9,015 8,782 9,777 9,961 221 -2,643 -233 994 184

Rest of World 95,510 98,414 98,276 97,137 98,010 92,505 2,904 -138 -1,139 873 -5,505

Total 953,612 967,209 991,264 1,025,779 1,024,980 1,041,269 13,597 24,055 34,515 -799 16,289

53
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Nov-08

Mar-09

Jul-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Jul-10

Nov-10

Mar-11

Jul-11

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Mar-13

Jul-13

Nov-13

Mar-14

Jul-14

Nov-14

Mar-15

Jul-15

Nov-15

Mar-16

Jul-16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jul-17

Nov-17

Mar-18

Jul-18

Nov-18

Mar-19

Jul-19

$ Billions

Total Fed Absorption

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

MBS Ownership

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of GSE MBS

Gross Issuance Total Fed Purchases

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. Note:Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban 

Institute. Note: Data as of July 2019.

Sources: eMBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Urban Institute. 

Note: Data as of July 2019.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

$ Billions

Fed Absorption of Ginnie Mae MBS

Total Fed Purchases Gross Issuance

The Federal Reserve is actively winding down its mortgage portfolio; MBS purchases are very low. During the 

period October 2014-September 2017, the Fed ended its purchase program, but was reinvesting proceeds from 

mortgage and agency debt into the mortgage market, absorbing 20-30 percent of agency gross issuance. In 

October 2017, the Fed began to taper their mortgage holdings, initially letting securities run off at the rate of $4 

billion per month in Q4, 2017; $8 billion per month in Q1, 2018; $12 billion per month in Q2; $16 billion per 

month in Q3; and $20 billion per month in Q4, 2018 and thereafter. With the Fed now at its maximum taper, Fed 

absorption of gross issuance was 2.45 percent in July. 

54
All the information contained in this document is as of date Indicated unless otherwise noted. The

information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. All

information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

The views expressed in this material are the views of the staff of the Urban Institute's Housing Finance 

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