1 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govThe Parker Ranch installation in HawaiiENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL CLOTHES DRYERSAND ROOM AIR CONDITIONERSPreliminary Activities andAnalyses Public MeetingRulemaking OverviewStephen WitkowskiDepartment of EnergyEnergy Efficiency & Renewable EnergyEmail.home_appliance2.rulemaking@ee.doe.govMarch 16, 20102 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.gov• To present methodologies and characterize resultsfor analyses to date.• To discuss specific issues related to each analysis.• To seek input from attendees on methodologies,assumptions and data sources.• To describe upcoming analyses and next steps.Purpose of the Public Meeting3 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govThe Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) directs DOE toconsider seven factors when setting energy conservation standardsFactorAnalysis1. Economic impact on consumersand manufacturersLife-cycle cost analysisManufacturer impact analysis2. Lifetime operating cost savings Life-cycle cost analysis3. Total projected energy savings National impact analysis4. Impact on utility or performance Screening analysisEngineering analysis5. Impact of any lessening ofcompetitionManufacturer impact analysis6. Need for national energyconservationNational impact analysis7. Other factors the Secretaryconsiders relevantEnvironmental assessmentUtility impact analysisEmployment impact analysis4 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProductPriceLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesSteps for the Standards Rulemaking: PreliminaryActivities and AnalysesMarket &TechnologyAssessmentFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDatePreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis5 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.gov• Executive Summary includes:– An overview of the preliminary activities and preliminary technical supportdocument (TSD);– Key results of the analyses; and– Issues on which DOE seeks comment from interested parties.• Chapter 2 of the preliminary TSD provides a summary of the preliminaryactivities and includes:– A review of the analyses conducted; and– A discussion of comments on the analytical Framework from interested parties andDOE’s responses to those comments.• Notice of Public Meeting (NOPM) and Availability of the Preliminary TSDincludes:– Details of the public meeting for the preliminary activities and analyses; and– A description of the preliminary analyses, results, and documentation available onthe website for interested parties to review.Key Documents Describing the Preliminary Activities6 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNext Steps in theStandardsRulemaking: NOPRTrialStandardLevelsRevisePreliminaryAnalysesManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalAssessmentRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDate7 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.gov• Participants are invited to provide summary comments or statements.• Participants are invited to raise additional issues for discussion today.• Interested parties may provide comments on the preliminaryanalyses through April 26, 2010.Comments from Participants8 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPreliminary Activities Flow DiagramFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProductPriceLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesMarket &TechnologyAssessmentPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis9 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPurposeMarket & Technology Assessment:•Characterize the markets to determine available product efficiencies,manufacturers, shipments by productclass, and technologies available forincreasing efficiencies.Screening Analysis:•Apply screening criteria established byDOE to determine which technologiesto evaluate andwhich to screen out.Engineering Analysis:•Evaluate technologies thatimprove efficiency.•Characterize manufacturer cost-efficiency relationships forhigher efficiencyproducts.Introduction10 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govMarket and Technology AssessmentMarket Characteristics: Residential Clothes DryersDOE identified 14 manufacturers of clothes dryers selling into the U.S.Market shares for the top three manufacturers have remained relativelystable since 2000, considering Whirlpool and Maytag jointly.Products are manufactured both inthe U.S. and internationally.Market share in 2008. Whirlpool share of market includes Maytag.11 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govMarket and Technology AssessmentSource: AHAM datasubmittal in 2008Market Characteristics: Residential Clothes Dryers12 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govResidential Clothes Dryer TypeResidential Clothes Dryers Product ClassVented Dryers(existing)Electric, Standard (4.4 cubic feet (ft3) or greater capacity)Electric, Compact (120 volts (V)) (less than 4.4 ft3capacity)Electric, Compact (240V) (less than 4.4 ft3capacity)GasVent-less Dryers*(proposed)Electric, Compact (240V) (less than 4.4 ft3capacity)Electric, Combination Washer/Dryer*These product classes will require the adoption of clothesdryer test procedures formeasuring energy consumption of vent-less clothes dryers. DOE isconsidering suchamendments to the existing clothes dryertest procedure in aparallel rulemaking.Market and Technology AssessmentResidential Clothes Dryers: Proposed Product Classes13 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govMarket and Technology AssessmentVent-less Clothes DryersDOE recognizes the unique utility that vent-less clothes dryersoffer to consumers (i.e., no external vent required).DOE proposes to consider two product classes for vent-lessclothes dryers.•Vent-less electric compact (240V) dryers.•Vent-less electric combination washer/dryers.Combination washer/dryers provide unique utility, and are thusproposed as a separate product class from other vent-less clothesdryers.•These machines wash and then dry clothes in the same basket/cavity in acombined cycle.•DOE research suggests all combination washer/dryers are vent-less.•Like other vent-less dryers, combination washer/dryers can be installed inlocations where venting dryers would be precluded due to ventingrestrictions.14 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govMarket and Technology AssessmentDOE Clothes Dryer Test ProcedureDOE has initiated a separate test procedure rulemaking to addressprocedures for clothes dryers and room air conditioners.DOE is considering amendments to its clothes dryer testprocedure to address:•Active mode energy use issues.•Standby and off mode energy use,as required by the Energy Independenceand Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007).The DOE test procedure does not currently contain provisions fortesting vent-less clothes dryers.•DOE believes the test procedure may beused to test vent-less clothesdryers by eliminating the requirement of an exhaust simulator and addingclarifications.15 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govThe current DOE clothes dryer test procedure does not containprovisions for testing vent-less clothes dryers. DOE invites interestedparties to submit inputs on potential clothes dryer test procedureamendments to test vent-less clothes dryers, as well as data andinformation on the energy efficiency performance of vent-less clothesdryers. (Issue #2)Request for Comment:Residential Clothes-Dryers: Product Classes for Vent-lessClothes DryersMarket and Technology Assessment16 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govMarket and Technology AssessmentDOE is also considering potential amendments to the residentialclothes dryer test procedure to address active mode issues otherthan vent-less clothes dryers:•Technical changes and procedures formore accurately measuring theeffects of automatic cycle termination.•Changes to reflect current consumer usage patterns and capabilities:−Changing the number of clothes dryer cycles per year.−Changing the initial remaining moisture content (RMC) in clothes loadsto reflect current clothes washer performance.−Changing the clothes dryer test load size to reflectcurrent clotheswasher capacities.Because of the rulemaking schedules, any potential testprocedure amendments to address these active mode issues havenot been considered for these preliminary analyses.DOE Clothes Dryer Test Procedure – Active Mode17 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govMarket and Technology AssessmentEISA 2007 requires DOE to incorporate standby mode and offmode energy use into the DOE clothes dryer test procedure.•DOE initiated a rulemaking to address standby and off mode energy use inits test procedures for clothes dryersand room air conditioners, publishing aNOPR on December 9, 2008. (73 FR 74639)•EISA 2007 requires DOE to considerthe most recent version ofInternational Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Standard 62301.•DOE decided after the December 2008 NOPR to continue the rulemaking toallow for the consideration of arevised version of IEC Standard 62301,which at that time was expected in July 2009.•Because the updated version ofIEC Standard 62301 has been delayed untilat least the end of2010, DOE is now continuingthe rulemaking, consideringthe language in the most recent draft version of IEC Standard 62301Second Edition.•The proposed standby and off mode amendments will be considered in thesame test procedure rulemakingaddressing active mode issues.•Standby and off mode energy consumption is considered in this standardsrulemaking.DOE Clothes Dryer Test Procedure – Standby and Off Modes18 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE identified less than ten key manufacturers of room airconditioners selling in the U.S. market.•70 percent of the 2007 market wascontrolled by four manufacturers.DOE did not identify any domestic manufacturing of room airconditioners.•Production has moved outside the U.S., mostly to Asia.•Some production may still be occurring in Mexico.Significant market changes since 2007.•Two of the four major manufacturersin 2007 left the market in 2008.Roughly 9.5 million units were shipped in 2007 (2008 ApplianceMagazine data).Market Characteristics: Room Air ConditionersMarket and Technology Assessment19 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE proposes no new room air conditionerproduct classes.ProductClassNumberCategoryDescription1Without Reverse Cycleand with Louvered SidesLess than 6,000 Btu/h2 6,000 to 7,999 Btu/h38,000 to 13,999 Btu/h14,000 to 19,999 Btu/h420,000 Btu/h or more56Without Reverse Cycle andwithout Louvered SidesLess than 6,000 Btu/h6,000 to 7,999 Btu/h78,000 to 13,999 Btu/h814,000 to 19,999 Btu/h91020,000 Btu/h or more11With Reverse CycleWith Louvered Sides and less than 20,000 Btu/h12Without Louvered Sides and less than 14,000 Btu/hWith Louvered Sides and 20,000 Btu/h or more13Without Louvered Sides and 14,000 Btu/h or more1415CasementCasement-OnlyCasement-Slider16Market and Technology Assessment20 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govStandby and off mode test procedures.•EISA 2007 directs DOE to incorporate standby mode and off mode energyconsumption in the DOE roomair conditioner test procedure.•DOE initiated a rulemaking to address standby and off modes, publishing aNOPR on December 9, 2008.•DOE decided to continue the rulemaking to allow for the consideration ofthe expected revisions of IEC Standard 62301.•Standby and off mode amendments willbe incorporated in a combined testprocedure rulemaking.DOE is considering the following additional issues regardingactive mode in the ongoing test procedure rulemaking.•Annual hours of operation in active mode.•Updated references to commercialtest standards AHAM RAC-1-2003 andASHRAE 16-1983 (RA 2009).Any potential amendments to the active mode test procedurehave not been considered for these preliminary analyses.DOE Room Air Conditioner Test ProcedureMarket and Technology Assessment21 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.gov750 annual active mode hours.•During the framework period, DOE and stakeholders discussed thepossibility of a lower number of hours.•Work on the LCC analysis suggeststhat the active mode annual hours mayactually be higher than 750.•DOE is proposing an integrated metric (integrated energy efficiency ratio(IEER)) based on 750 active mode hours.5,115 annual standby mode hours.•This is consistent with the alternative approach proposed in the December2008 room air conditioner test procedure NOPR addressing standby and offmodes.Preliminary analysis has been conducted consistent with theEISA 2007 requirement for an integrated efficiency metric.[ ][ ])(115,5)(750)/(750WPowerhWPowerhhrBtuCapacityhIEERStndbyActive×+××=Market and Technology Assessment22 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE identified technologies for each product covered in thisrulemaking from the following sources:•Technical support documentsfrom previous rulemakings;•Literature review;•Product teardowns; and•Input from interested parties.The full list of technologies thatDOE identified can be found inChapter 3, Market and Technology Assessment, of the preliminaryTSD.Technology AssessmentMarket and Technology Assessment23 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govTechnologies were screened using the following criteria:•Technological feasibility;•Practicability to manufacture, install and service;•Impacts on product utility orproduct availability; and•Impacts on health or safety.Screening AnalysisScreening Analysis Methodology24 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE applied the screening criteria to the technologies for efficiencyimprovement identified for residential clothes dryers and room airconditioners.Residential Clothes Dryers.•3 technologies were screened out: Microwave (electric only), Water-cooling(vent-less electric only), Indirect heating.•15 remaining design options.Room Air Conditioners.•No technologies were screened out.•16 remaining design options.Chapter 4, Screening Analysis, of the preliminary TSD providesadditional detail on the screening analysis.Technologies Screened OutScreening Analysis25 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE did not consider certain technologies that met the screening criteria butwere unable to be evaluated as part of the Engineering Analysis.Residential Clothes Dryers:•Available data suggestthat the efficiencybenefits of the technology are negligible:Reverse Tumble.•Efficiency cannot be measuredaccording to the conditions and methods specified in the existing testprocedure:Improved Termination.Room Air Conditioners:•DOE not aware of any improveddesigns not currently in use:Improved Fin Design, Improved TubeDesign, Improved IndoorBlower and Outdoor Fan Efficiency.•Available data suggests noimprovement because technologiesare standard practice:HydrophilicFilm Coating on Fins, SprayCondensate onto Condenser Coil.•No measureable improvement according tothe test procedure:Variable Speed Compressors,Thermostatic or Electronic ExpansionValve, Thermostatic Cyclic Controls.Chapter 5, Engineering Analysis, of the preliminary TSD includes details ontechnologies DOE did not consider and the rationale for eliminating them.Technologies Unable to Be IncludedEngineering Analysis26 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govResidential Clothes Dryer Design OptionsDryer Control or Drum Upgrades•Increased insulation•Modified operating conditions•Improved air circulation•Improved drum designMethods of Exhaust Heat Recovery (Vented Models Only)•Recycle exhaust heat•Inlet air preheat•Inlet air preheat, condensing modeHeat Generation Options•Heat pump, electric only•Modulating gas, gas onlyComponent Improvements•Improved motor efficiency•Improved fan efficiencyStandby Power Improvements•Switching Power Supply•Transformerless Power Supply with Auto-PowerdownClothes Dryer Design OptionsEngineering Analysis27 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govIncreased Heat Transfer Surface Area•Increased frontal coil area•Increased depth of coil (add tube rows)•Increased fin density•Add subcooler to condenser coilIncreased Heat Transfer Coefficients•Microchannel heat exchangers*Component Improvements•Improved blower/fan motor efficiency•Improved compressor efficiencyStandby Power Improvements•Switching power supplyRoom Air Conditioner Design OptionsEngineering Analysis* A heat exchanger design generally madeentirely of aluminumconsisting of flatmultichannel tubes and fan-fold fins.28 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE requests comment and data regarding additional design optionsor variants of the considered design options that can increase therange of considered efficiency improvements for both clothesdryers and room air conditioners,including design options thatmay not yet be found in the market. (Issue #1)Request for Comment:Design OptionsEngineering Analysis29 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.gov• Characterize the relationship between manufacturer cost and energyefficiency.Downstream Analyses•Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Period•National Impacts•Manufacturer ImpactAnalysisCost – EfficiencyRelationship

Incremental Manufacturing CostEfficiencyPurpose of the Engineering AnalysisEngineering Analysis30 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govEfficiency-level ApproachMethodResidentialClothes DryersRoom AirConditionersAHAM Data√*Review of Previous TSD√ √Product Teardown and ManufacturerCost Modeling√ √Product Testing√ √Manufacturer Interviews√ √Component Vendor Interviews√Energy Modeling√Engineering Analysis Methods, Approach, and Information SourcesAnalysis was conducted for all residential clothes dryer product classes.Analysis was conducted for selectedhigh-volume room air conditionerproduct classes, with extrapolation to the other product classes.*AHAM did not receive sufficient data to allow aggregation and reporting to DOE.Engineering Analysis31 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govManufacturing cost models were developed by DOE as part of theefficiency-level approach.•Material and component costs were generated during product teardown analysisand entered into cost model.•Cost model generated manufacturing, material, labor, and overhead costs.•Physical teardown analysis conducted with representative products.Manufacturing CostsDirect materialDirect laborFactory overheadDepreciationSales & marketingResearch & developmentBuildingTooling/EquipmentFullProductionCostConversionCosts(Non-Production Costs)ManufacturerCost+ =Manufacturer interviews were conducted to further refine theanalysis inputs and the results generated by the cost model.Engineering Analysis32 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govReverse-Engineering MethodologyRawMaterialsFinishedMaterialsPurchasedPartsSelectionof UnitsPhysicalTeardownBill ofMaterialsAssemblyProcessesManufacturingCostFabricationProcessesEngineering Analysis33 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govUse of Integrated MetricsDOE proposes standards to be based on integrated metricsincorporating active mode and standby/off mode energy use.•Residential clothes dryers: Integrated Energy Factor (IEF).•Room air conditioners: IntegratedEnergy Efficiency Ratio (IEER).DOE developed cost-efficiency curves based on the integratedefficiency metrics (IEF and IEER).The engineering analysis considereddesign options associated withboth active and standby modes.[ ][ ])(115,5)(750)/(750WPowerhWPowerhhrBtuCapacityhIEERStndbyActive×+××=⎥⎦⎤⎢⎣⎡××+=cyclesannualDryerkWWWPowerhkWhenergycyclePerlbLoadTestIEFStndby416/1000)(620,8)()(Engineering Analysis34 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.gov• Define baseline specifications for each product class;• Identify efficiency levels from the baseline to the max-tech as apathway for improving energy efficiency;• Conduct teardown analysis for representative products at theefficiency levels identified; and• Generate cost-efficiency curves, which account for fullproduction costs.Clothes Dryer Cost-Efficiency Curve DevelopmentDevelopBaselineCalculateCostsDevelopEfficiencyPathwayGenerateCostEfficiencyCurvesEngineering Analysis35 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govClothes Dryers: Baseline Efficiency LevelsFor vented dryer product classes, DOE determined baselineefficiency levels for active mode based on the current Federalenergy conservation standards.For vent-less dryer product classes, DOE estimated baselineefficiencies for active mode based upon testing.•Testing conducted by an independent testing lab on representative unitsusing the DOE test procedurewithout the exhaust simulator.DOE estimated the baseline efficiency level for standby/off modefor all product classes based on DOE testing of standby/off modeenergy use in its sample units.Baseline IEF levels were determined by combining the baseline EFand standby/off energy use.Engineering Analysis36 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govClothes Dryers: Baseline Efficiency LevelsProductTypeProduct ClassEnergyFactor(EF)StandbyPower(W)IntegratedEF(IEF)VentedDryersElectric, Standard (> 4.4 ft3)3.01 2.02.96Electric, Compact (120 V) (< 4.4 ft3)3.13 2.03.00Electric, Compact (240 V) (< 4.4 ft3)2.90 2.02.79Gas2.67 2.02.63Vent-lessDryersElectric, Compact (240V) (< 4.4 ft3)2.37 2.02.29Electric, CombinationWasher/Dryer1.95 2.01.90Engineering Analysis37 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govClothes Dryers: Active Mode Efficiency LevelsDOE determined active mode efficiency levels for each productclass using the following sources:•Publicly available market and efficiency data;•Product catalogs;•Technical journals and research;•Prototype technologies; and•Comments from interested partiesand manufacturer interviews.For the vented electric compact (120V) product class, active modeefficiency levels above the baseline were obtained by scaling theefficiency levels for electric standard dryers by the ratio of thebaseline efficiencies.Engineering Analysis38 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govClothes Dryers: Standby Mode Efficiency LevelsStandby mode efficiency levels were based on DOE testing andreverse engineering analyses.•Several different features were observed to be associated with successivelylower standby power levels.Only standby power is addressed because no power consumptionwas observed in off mode for test units capable of such a mode.Engineering Analysis39 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govClothes Dryers: Integrated Efficiency LevelsIntegrated efficiency levels based on IEF* were determined byassuming that clothes dryer standby power would remain at thebaseline 2.0 W for active mode levels that do not strictly requireelectronic controls to achieve.For higher active mode levels that require electronic controls, DOEadded in the standby power design options in order of costeffectiveness.* IEF = integrated energy factorEngineering Analysis40 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govVented Clothes DryersIntegrated Efficiency Level (lb/kWh)LevelEfficiency Level DescriptionElectricStandardElectricCompact(120V)ElectricCompact(240 V)GasBaselineDOE Standard + 2.0 W Standby2.96 3.00 2.79 2.631Gap Fill + 2.0 W Standby3.04 3.08 2.86 2.712Gap Fill + 2.0 W Standby3.10 3.15 2.96 2.803Gap Fill/Maximum Available +2.0 W Standby3.33 3.37 3.06 2.974Maximum Available + 1.5 WStandby3.35 3.41 3.10 2.985Maximum Available + 0.08 WStandby3.40 3.53 3.19 3.026Heat Pump (Max Tech) + 0.08 WStandby4.52 4.69 4.34-Engineering AnalysisIntegrated Efficiency Levels: Vented Dryers41 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govVent-less Clothes DryersIntegrated Efficiency Level(lb/kWh)LevelEfficiency Level DescriptionElectric Compact (240 V)BaselineBaseline + 2.0 W Standby 2.291Baseline + 1.5 W Standby2.312Baseline + 0.08 W Standby2.373Gap Fill + 0.08 W Standby2.394Gap Fill + 0.08 W Standby2.595Heat Pump (Max-Tech) + 0.08 W Standby3.54Integrated Efficiency Levels: Vent-less Electric Compact(240V) DryersEngineering Analysis42 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govVent-less Clothes DryersIntegrated Efficiency Level(lb/kWh)LevelEfficiency Level DescriptionElectric Combination Washer/DryerBaselineBaseline + 2.0 W Standby1.901Gap Fill + 2.0 W Standby2.152Gap Fill + 2.0 W Standby2.343Gap Fill + 1.5 W Standby2.364Gap Fill + 0.08 W Standby2.425Heat Pump (Max-Tech) + 0.08 W Standby3.31Integrated Efficiency Levels: Vent-less ElectricCombination Washer/DryersEngineering Analysis43 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govVented Electric Standard Clothes DryersVented Electric Compact (120 V)EfficiencyLevelIEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)EfficiencyLevelIEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)Baseline 2.96$0.00 Baseline 3.00$0.001 3.04$11.89 13.08$10.952 3.10$63.56 23.15$63.373 3.33$97.48 33.37$96.454 3.35$98.78 43.41$97.755 3.40$98.14 53.53$97.116 4.52$259.13 64.69$246.35Clothes Dryers: Engineering Analysis ResultsThe MPC includes the costof materials, labor, and direct overhead used to manufacture aproduct.Engineering Analysis44 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govVented Electric Compact (240 V)Vented GasEfficiencyLevelIEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)EfficiencyLevelIEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)Baseline 2.79$0.00 Baseline 2.63$0.001 2.86$10.95 12.71$14.792 2.96$63.37 22.80$65.363 3.06$96.45 32.97$156.014 3.10$97.75 42.98$157.315 3.19$97.11 53.02$156.676 4.34$246.35Clothes Dryers: Engineering Analysis ResultsEngineering Analysis45 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govVent-less Electric Compact (240V)Vent-less Electric Combination Washer/DryerEfficiencyLevelIEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)EfficiencyLevelIEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)Baseline 2.29$0.00 Baseline 1.90$0.001 2.31$1.30 12.15$0.812 2.37$0.66 22.34$54.043 2.39$13.01 32.36$55.344 2.59$69.02 42.42$54.705 3.54$216.37 53.31$230.83Clothes Dryers: Engineering Analysis ResultsEngineering Analysis46 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOEAHAMEfficiencyLevelEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)EfficiencyLevelEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)Baseline 3.01$0.00 Baseline 3.01$0.001 3.10$11.89 13.10$13.002 3.16$63.56 23.16$57.003 3.40$97.48 33.39$197.004 4.52$258.47Comparison of DOE Cost Estimates to AHAM Data Submission –Vented Electric Standard Clothes Dryers, Active ModeEngineering Analysis47 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOEAHAMEfficiencyLevelEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)EfficiencyLevelEF(lb/kWh)IncrementalManufacturingCost (MPC)Baseline 2.67$0.00 Baseline 2.67$0.001 2.75$14.79 12.75$24.002 2.85$65.36 22.77$70.003 3.02$156.01 33.02$125.00Engineering AnalysisComparison of DOE Cost Estimates to AHAM Data Submission –Vented Gas Clothes Dryers, Active Mode48 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.gov• Select representative products spanning the range of availableefficiencies for the product classes analyzed;• Establish baseline specificationsand calibrate energy model;• Identify design options for increasing efficiency and use energymodeling to identify IEER efficiency impact;• Conduct teardown analysis for the representative products andconduct interviews with manufacturers and componentvendors to determine cost impacts of the design options;• Generate cost-efficiency curves by combining energy modelingand cost modeling analysis; and interpolating/extrapolating forproduct classes not examined.Room Air Conditioner Cost-Efficiency Curve DevelopmentIdentifyrepresentativeproductsConduct costmodelinganalysisIdentify andModel DesignOptionsGeneratecostefficiencycurvesDevelopBaselineEngineering Analysis49 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRepresentative Product Classes1< 6,000 Btu/h, LouveredSides, No Reverse Cycle38,000-13,999 Btu/h, Louvered Sides, No Reverse Cycle5> 24,000 Btu/h,Louvered Sides, No Reverse Cycle88,000-13,999 Btu/h, Non-LouveredSides, No Reverse CycleRoom Air Conditioners: Representative Product ClassesDOE selected representative product classes for which to conductthe full engineering analysis.DOE developed cost-efficiency curves for representative products foreach of these product classes.DOE then extended this analysis numerically to the remaining 12product classes.Engineering Analysis50 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRoom Air Conditioners: Representative Product ClassesDistribution of room air conditionermodels in the CEC,AHAM and ENERGYSTAR DatabasesDOE chose product classes 1, 3, 5, and 8for full analysis based on the distributionof the models in multiple product databases.Engineering Analysis51 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRoom Air Conditioners: R-410A Treatment in AnalysisDOE conducted the energy modeling of design options using R-410Aas the refrigerant.DOE sought information on the performance of R-410A rotarycompressors of varying efficiency levels for all of the products underanalysis.•The EER ratings of the R-410A compressors are generallylower than that of anHCFC-22 rotary compressorwith a similar capacity.•The EER ratings for R-410A rotary compressors exhibit a much more limitedEER range than HCFC-22 rotary compressors.DOE also adjusted the incremental costs to account for the addedcost in converting to R-410A.Engineering Analysis52 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRoom Air Conditioners: R-410A Treatment in AnalysisThe figure is basedon compressor rating point capacity.Engineering Analysis53 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govStandbyPowerEfficiency LevelStandbyPower(W)IncrementalManufacturing Cost (MPC)Baseline1.4$0.001 0.7$1.00Room Air Conditioners: Standby Power LevelsDOE measured the standby power consumption of representativeroom air conditioners to determine the appropriate energy use ofthese modes.DOE identified two standby power levels in current room airconditioners.•Baseline standby level uses aconventional linear power supply.•Standby level 1 employs a switching power supply.Engineering Analysis54 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE set baseline efficiency levels based on current Federal energyconservation standards for EER and the baseline standbyefficiency level.Baseline IEER values were set to the nearest hundredth.ProductClassCapacity(Btu/hr)EER (Btu/hW)StandbyPower (W)IEER(Btu/h-W)15,0009.71.49.5238,0009.81.49.69312,0009.81.49.72524,0008.51.48.4788,0008.51.48.41812,0008.51.48.44Engineering AnalysisRoom Air Conditioners: Baseline Efficiency Levels55 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govIEER(Btu/h-W)EfficiencyLevelProduct Class 1<6,000 Btu/h,With LS, Without RCProduct Class 38,000-13,999 Btu/h,With LS, Without RCBaseline9.529.71110.110.3210.610.8311.111.3411.611.85 12.0 -Room Air Conditioners: Incremental Efficiency LevelsDOE established incremental efficiency levels based on review ofmarket data*, product catalogs, technical journals, prototypetechnologies, comments from interested parties, and manufacturerinterviews.*Based on ENERGY STAR-qualifiedroom air conditioners asof July 2008 and verificationof availability through retailer website searches.Engineering Analysis56 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govIEER(Btu/h-W)LevelProduct Class 5>20,000 Btu/h,With LS, Without RCProduct Class 88,000-13,999 Btu/h,Without LS, Without RCBaseline8.478.431 9.0 8.92 9.4 9.33 9.8 9.84 10.0 -Room Air Conditioners: Incremental Efficiency LevelsEngineering Analysis57 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govEngineering AnalysisDOE used energy modeling for the room air conditioner engineeringanalysis.•No data were received from AHAM.•Existing products use HCFC-22, which is banned for newproducts starting in2010.DOE updated the energy model used in the previous room airconditioner rulemaking.•Update of heat exchanger performancemodels, including incorporation ofmicrochannel heat exchanger performance;•Incorporation of additional refrigerants, including R-410A; and•Development of a platform for the Microsoft Windows operating system.DOE developed airside models to calculate the impacts on airflow andfan motor shaft power associated with the incorporation of somedesign options.Room Air Conditioners: Energy Modeling58 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:Modified Engineering Analysis Approach for Room AirConditionersIn the framework document, DOE proposed the use of an efficiency-levelapproach for the engineering analysis for room air conditioners. Use ofthis approach was complicated by the lack of aggregated industry dataand by the phaseout of HCFC-22 refrigerant. As described in chapter 5,DOE adopted an approach relyingmore on a design-option analysis,using both energy modeling and manufacturing cost modeling todetermine the impacts of efficiency improvements for the products. DOEinvites comment on this modified approach for conducting theengineering analysis. (Issue #5)Engineering Analysis59 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE considered chassis size increases to increase efficiency forwindow units (analyzed product classes 1, 3, and 5).•Chassis size increase allows for increased heat exchanger size.DOE examined the range of sizes of available room air conditioners.•The data show that baseline efficiency products have a range of sizes.•DOE did not consider chassis sizeincreases beyond the range of availableproducts.•DOE’s analysis examined two steps in chassis size growthfor most of theproduct classes.Manufacturers have stated that consumer utility is negativelyimpacted by such size increases.DOE lacks information on whether any size growth is acceptable.Engineering AnalysisEstablishing Appropriate Size Limits for Room AirConditioners with Louvered Sides60 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:Establishing Appropriate Size Limits for Room AirConditioners with Louvered SidesA methodology for determining appropriate maximum sizes for differentproduct classes and capacities has not been established. DOE seeksinput on this topic, including, ifpossible, consumer surveys or similardata to guide establishing these maximum size limits. (Issue #6)Engineering Analysis61 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govProduct Class 1 (<6,000 Btu/h, With Louvers, No Reverse Cycle)EfficiencyLevelIEERIncremental MPCShippingCostsBaseline9.52$7.65$4.181 10.1$12.18$5.312 10.6$18.22$6.253 11.1$27.19$7.644 11.6$37.30$8.395 12.0$44.10$8.39Room Air Conditioner Engineering Analysis Results: ProductClass 1Baseline incremental MPC is non-zero, reflecting the cost of conversionto R-410A refrigerant.Shipping is often done by retailers, so the manufacturer markup does notapply for this part of the cost. Differences in shipping costs primarilyreflect size increases.Engineering Analysis62 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govProduct Class 3 (8,000-13,999 Btu/h,With Louvers, No Reverse Cycle)EfficiencyLevelIEERIncremental MPCShippingCostsBaseline9.71$10.39$10.391 10.3$18.11$12.252 10.8$25.68$14.653 11.3$40.51$18.214 11.5$78.59$18.21Room Air Conditioner Engineering Analysis: Product Class 3DOE consolidated product class 3 results by averaging the 8,000 Btu/hand the 12,000 Btu/h analysis results.Engineering Analysis63 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govProduct Class 5 (>24,000 Btu/h, With Louvers, No Reverse Cycle)EfficiencyLevelIEERIncremental MPCShippingCostsBaseline8.47$23.78$24.791 9.0$37.47$27.882 9.4$52.84$32.663 9.8$75.30$36.464 10.0$104.34$36.46Room Air Conditioner Engineering Analysis: Product Class 5Engineering Analysis64 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govProduct Class 8 (8,000-13,999 Btu/h,Without Louvers, No Reverse Cycle)EfficiencyLevelIEERIncremental MPCShippingCostsBaseline8.44$7.45$12.261 8.9$10.95$12.262 9.3$15.36$12.263 9.8$28.82$12.26Room Air Conditioner Engineering Analysis Results: ProductClass 8DOE consolidated product class 8 results by averaging the 8,000 Btu/hand the 12,000 Btu/h analysis results.No increase in size, since these products are designed to fit fixed-sizedwall openings.Engineering Analysis65 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE interpolated/extrapolated the incremental costs of the productclasses that were not fully analyzed.•DOE conducted a full analysis on product classes 1,3,5, and 8.•For the remaining product classes, DOE interpolated or extrapolated based on theaverage capacity of room air conditioners within each product class and otherfactors detailed in the preliminary TSD.DOE derived costs using this method for:•Louvered product classes 2 and 4;•Through-the-wall product classes 6, 7, 9, and 10;•Reverse-cycle product classes 11, 12, 13, and 14; and•Casement and Casement-sliderproduct classes 15 and 16.Engineering AnalysisExtrapolation for Room Air Conditioner Product Classes NotFully Analyzed66 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE developed estimates of incremental costs for room air conditionerproduct classes not fully analyzed by extrapolation methods describedin chapter 5. DOE invites comment on the proposed extrapolationapproach. (Issue #4)Engineering AnalysisRequest for Comment:Extrapolation for Room Air Conditioner Product ClassesNot Fully Analyzed67 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govMSP accounts for the non-production costs and profit (i.e., the“manufacturer markup”).DOE determined appropriate markup factors by using:•U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 10-K reportsMPCs are multiplied by the manufacturer markup to determine MSPs.MSPs are an input to the LCC analysis.Manufacturer MarkupClothes Dryers and Room Air Conditioners1.26Manufacturer Selling PricesEngineering Analysis68 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE invites comments and recommendations from interestedparties on any other aspects relating to the Market and TechnologyAssessment, the Screening Analysis, and the Engineering Analysis.IssuesRequest for Comment:Other Issues69 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPreliminary Activities Flow DiagramFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProductPriceLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesMarket &TechnologyAssessmentPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis70 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govMarkups for Product Price Determination:•To characterize the channels for howproducts are distributed from themanufacturer to the consumer.•To determine prices paid by consumersbased on manufacturer selling pricesfor baseline and higher efficiency products.Energy Use Characterization:•To develop energy consumption savings estimates for selected productefficiency levels.Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) and Payback Period (PBP) Analyses:•To develop the consumer life-cycle cost savings and payback period for higherefficiency products.PurposeLife-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalyses71 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govLCC & Payback Period Analyses FlowchartFromEngineeringAnalysisFrom Markupsto DetermineProduct PriceFrom Energy UseCharacterizationEnergyConsumptionManufacturerMarkupSales TaxRetailer orDistributorMarkupConsumerPriceBaselineManufacturerCostStd-LevelManufacturerCostEnergyPricesAnnual EnergyCostLifetimeDiscount RateEnergyPrice TrendInstallationCostTotal InstalledCostAnnualOperatingExpenseLifetimeOperatingExpenseRepair CostMaintenanceCostPaybackPeriodLife-CycleCostLife-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalyses72 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govLCC equals total installed cost plus the sum of operating costsdiscounted to a particular base year.Economic evaluation performed from the consumer perspective.Analysis models the uncertainty and variability of inputs using MonteCarlo approach and probability distributions.Analysis implemented in an Excel®spreadsheet combined with CrystalBall.®First Cost(Consumer Price +Installation Cost)OperatingExpensesCombine Changesin CostsLCC ResultsConvert to Present ValueMethodLife-Cycle Cost and Payback PeriodAnalyses73 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPurpose:•Determine consumer product prices based on manufacturer costs.•Characterize product distribution channels and market segments.Inputs:•Manufacturer Markups.– Engineering Analysis.•Retailer Markups.–U.S. Census Bureau Financial Datafor Household Appliance Stores.Output:•Baseline and incremental markups.Purpose, Inputs, and Output of the Markup AnalysisMarkups Analysis74 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govBaseline and Incremental MarkupsMarkupsrelate consumer price to cost of goods sold (CGS).Baseline markupsrelate price to cost prior to a change in efficiency.•Baseline markups indicate a consumer price that covers allof a retailer’s ordistributor’s expenses plus profit.•Direct labor costs (salaries, payroll, rental and occupancy) are included.Incremental markupsrelate the incremental change in consumerprice to the incremental change in CGS.•Some costs remain constant with CGS increases.•Incremental markups cover only expensesthat vary with CGS – in this case,expenses that increase due to anincrease in product efficiency.– For example, direct labor costs (salaries, payroll, rental and occupancy) donot vary with efficiency-induced changes in CGS.•DOE assumes other operating costs and profit scale proportionally with CGS.Markups Analysis75 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govClothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner DistributionChannelManufacturerRetailerConsumerBaselineIncrementalClothes Dryers1.951.55Room Air Conditioners1.951.55Average Overall Markups by Product ClassMarkups Analysis76 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govConsumer PriceSales TaxRetailer MarkupConsumerPriceBaselineManufacturerSelling PriceStd-LevelManufacturerSelling PriceConsumer Price = Manufacturing Price x Markups•Manufacturing cost vs. efficiency relationships developed in theEngineeringAnalysis•Markups and Sales Taxes developed in theMarkups to Determine Product PriceConsumer Price Determination77 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govInstallation Costs• Room Air Conditioners:–Source: RS Means 2008Product ClassLaborHoursBare Costs (2008$)Including Overhead and Profit**Labor Material Total Labor Material* TotalLess than 6,000 Btu/hwith Louvers1 $38 $0 $38 $59$0$598,000-13,999 Btu/hwith and withoutLouvers2 $67 $0 $67 $101 $0 $10120,000 Btu/h or morewith Louvers4 $134 $0 $134 $202$0 $202Installation costs represent the labor and materials necessaryto install the appliance.DOE found no evidence that installation costs would be impacted with increasedefficiency levels.*Material costs including overhead and profit equal bare costs plus 10 percent profit**Labor costs including overhead and profit equal bare labor costs plus labor markup in RS MeansInstallation Cost78 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govInstallation costs represent the labor and materials necessaryto install the appliance.DOE found no evidence that installation costs would be impacted with increasedefficiency levels.Installation CostsInstallation Cost• Clothes Dryers:–Source: RS Means 2008Product ClassLaborHoursBare Costs (2008$)Including Overhead and Profit**Labor Material Total Labor Material* TotalElectric Vented Clothes Dryers(Retrofit)2.5 $84 $0 $84 $126 $0 $126Electric Vented Clothes Dryers(New Owner)2 $67 $0 $67 $101 $0 $101Electric Vented Clothes Dryers(New Construction)1 $34 $34 $68 $51 $37 $88Gas Clothes Dryers (Retrofit)2.5 $105$0 $105 $158 $0 $158Gas Clothes Dryers (New Owner)2 $84 $0 $84 $126 $0 $126Gas Clothes Vented Dryers (NewConstruction)1 $42 $34 $76 $63 $37 $100Vent-less Dryers (Retrofit)2.5 $84 $0 $84 $126 $0 $126Vent-less Dryers (New Owner)2 $67 $0 $67 $101 $0 $101Vent-less Dryers (NewConstruction)1 $34 $0 $68 $0 $37 $50*Material costs including overhead and profit equal bare costs plus 10 percent profit**Labor costs including overhead and profit equal bare labor costs plus labor markup in RS Means79 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govSelection of Household Samples:Room Air Conditioners in Residential BuildingsRECSHouseholdsYESYESHas RoomAC?NORejectNO250 - 650< 6,000 Btu/hSampleHouseholds8,000 - 13,999Btu/h SampleHouseholds>= 20,000 Btu/hSampleHouseholdsNORejectRejectRoom ACUsed?3 or LessRAC UnitsHouseholdSq. ft.=< 250YES>= 650Note: Square footage designation based on Energy Star sizing guidelines. Additional adjustments madeto account for number of household members.Energy Use Characterization80 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govSelection of Building Samples:Room Air Conditioners in Commercial Buildings* RAC as primary cooling equipment for at least a portion of the building?Energy Use CharacterizationYESCBECSBuildingsHasroomAC?Buildingnotvacant?RACprimary?*BuildingSq. ftYESYES< 6,000 Btu/hSampleBuildings8,000-13,999Btu/h SampleBuildings>= 20,000 Btu/hSampleBuildings>300<300>900NORejectNORejectNOReject81 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govSelection of Household Samples:Clothes Dryers* Vented Dryer Criteria:•Manufactured Home•Multifamily Home•Single family home with < 1,000sq. ft. and no garage or basementEnergy Use Characterization82 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govBase case product efficiency assignment accounts for the projected market share ofproducts at differentefficiency levels.•Not all consumers purchase productsat current minimum standard.•LCC analysis recognizes that consumers already purchasing products atefficiencies greater than orequal to a prospective standard levelare not impacted by the standard.Example: Room Air Conditioners Base Case Market SharesEfficiency Level< 6,000 Btu/h withLouvers8,000 – 13,999 Btu/h withLouvers> 20,000 Btu/h withLouvers8,000 – 13,999 Btu/hwithout LouversIEERMarketShareIEERMarketShareIEERMarketShareIEERMarketShareBaseline9.5 96.0% 9.7 51.4% 8.5 37.0% 8.4 39.0%110.1 0.0% 10.3 1.5%9.06.1% 8.9 0.0%210.6 4.0% 10.8 44.3% 9.4 56.2% 9.3 61.0%311.1 0.0% 11.3 1.7%9.80.7% 9.8 0.0%411.6 0.0% 11.5 1.1% 10.0 0.0%512.0 0.0%Source: AHAM shipment data by efficiencylevel, ENERGY STAR fractions by state.Product Assignment in the BaseCase83 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govProduct Assignment in the BaseCaseExample: Clothes DryersBase Case Market SharesEfficiencyLevelVented ElectricStandardVented ElectricCompact (120V)Vented ElectricCompact (240V)Vented GasVent-lessElectric Compact(240V)Vent-lessCombinationWasher/DryerIEFMarketShareIEFMarketShareIEFMarketShareIEFMarketShareIEFMarketShareIEFMarketShareBaseline2.96 29.5% 2.79 38.9% 3.00 100.0% 2.63 26.8% 2.29 100% 1.90 100%13.04 49.9% 2.86 38.9% 3.08 0.0% 2.71 43.4% 2.31 0.0% 2.15 0.0%23.10 20.6% 2.96 0.0% 3.15 0.0% 2.80 28.9% 2.37 0.0% 2.34 0.0%33.33 0.0% 3.06 22.2% 3.38 0.0% 2.97 0.9% 2.39 0.0% 2.36 0.0%43.35 0.0% 3.10 0.0% 3.41 0.0% 2.98 0.0% 2.59 0.0% 2.42 0.0%53.40 0.0% 3.19 0.0% 3.53 0.0% 3.02 0.0% 3.54 0.0% 3.31 0.0%64.52 0.0% 4.34 0.0% 4.69 0.0%Source: CEC directory84 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:Base-Case Efficiency DistributionsIssuesTo estimate the share of consumers that would be affected by astandard at a particular efficiency level, DOE’s LCC and PBPanalyses considered the projected distribution of productefficiencies that consumers would purchase in the base case (i.e.,the case without amended energy efficiency standards). DOE foundthat the data on recent trends in shipment-weighted averageefficiency of room air conditioners and shares of ENERGY STARproducts are inconclusive. Therefore, DOE assumed that the marketshares of the efficiency levels in 2014 will be roughly the same as theshares in 2007. DOE also believes that there is little evidence toexpect much change in the energy efficiency of clothes dryers in thebase case. DOE invites comment on the approach used to forecastbase-case market shares of the considered efficiency levels. (Issue#13)85 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govEnergy Use ParametersExample:Residential Room Air ConditionersRECSEER byefficiencylevelAHAMDataExistingEERRACCapacityUnit EnergyConsumption(UEC)HouseholdSq. ft.RAC Age# of RACUnitsReportedEnergyUse*EnergyUseOperatingHoursCDDWeatherStationDataMonthlyCDD DataMonthlyEnergyUse* Climate data from 2005 RECSEnergy Use Determination86 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govActive Mode Energy Use:– Load weight distributions based onCEC data and DOE test procedure– Remaining Moisture Content (RMC) distributions based on CEC data– Clothes dryer cycles calculated from RECSStandby Power Use:– 1 cycle = 60 minutes– Standby power level fromtest lab measurementsEnergy Use ParametersExample:Clothes DryersEnergy Use Determination87 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govThe DOE test procedure uses weights of 7 lb for standard-sizeunits and 3 lb for compact-size units. For its LCC analysis,DOE developed a distribution of weights by matching the listedtub sizes for models in the CEC directory with the correlationsbetween tub size and average pounds specified in the testprocedure. DOE invites comment on this approach. (Issue #10)IssuesRequest for Comment:Load Sizes for Clothes Dryers88 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE is currently considering amendments to its clothes dryer testprocedure to revise the initial RMC to reflect the performanceof residential clothes washers currently on the market.However, DOE has not yet published a NOPR for potential testprocedure amendments. Therefore, for this preliminaryanalysis, DOE did not analyze energy conservation standardsbased on initial RMCs lower than the existing 70 percent. DOEmay consider revising the IEF efficiency levels in later stagesof this rulemaking as warranted by further research andcomments from interested parties. (Issue #9)IssuesRequest for Comment:Clothes Dryer Remaining Moisture Content89 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govFor the LCC analysis, DOE estimated the number of clothes dryercycles per year for each sample home using data given byRECS on the number of laundry loads (clothes washer cycles)washed per week and the frequency of clothes dryer use. DOEinvites comment on this approach. (Issue #8)IssuesRequest for Comment:Number of Annual Cycles for Clothes Dryers90 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:Annual Operating Hours for Room Air ConditionersFor each considered room air conditioner capacity, DOEcalculated the number of operating hours for each room airconditioner in the residential sample using the reported energyuse for room air conditioning in the 2005 RECS along withestimates of the EER of the room air conditioner(s) in eachsample home. DOE based the latter on the reported age of theunit and historical data on shipment-weighted average EER.DOE invites comment on this approach. (Issue #7)Issues91 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govBaseline Average Annual Energy Use ResultsEnergy Use ResultsRoom Air ConditionersElectricity UseBaseline EfficiencyLevelResidential(kWh/year)Commercial(kWh/year)Room Air Conditioners <6000 Btu/h, with Louvers9.52 688 640Room Air Conditioners 8000-13,999 Btu/h, with Louvers9.71672 1181Room Air Conditioners≥20,000 Btu/h,with Louvers8.471118 3343Room Air Conditioners 8000-13,999 Btu/h, withoutLouvers8.43712 1359Clothes DryersBaseline Efficiency LevelEnergy UseVented Electric Standard2.96 519 kWh/yearVented Electric Compact (120V)3.00 270 kWh/yearVented Electric Compact (240V)2.79 290 kWh/yearVented Gas2.631.65 MMBtu/year71.4 kWh/yearVent-less Electric Compact (240V)2.29351 kWh/yearVent-less Electric Combination Washer/Dryer1.90424 kWh/year92 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govElectricity:•Based on EIA Form 861 Data.Natural Gas:•Based on data from EIA’sNatural Gas Navigator.Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG):•Based on data from EIA’sState Energy Consumption, Price, and ExpenditureEstimates.Historical Energy Prices:Clothes DryersNote: Energy prices developed for 13 Regions:9 Census Divisions and 4 Large States.Energy Prices93 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govElectricity PricesElectricity prices are used to convertelectricity use to electricity costs.For the LCC, electricity prices are defined for each household or building.DOE uses an average price to define the LCC baseline, and marginal prices todetermine LCC cost savings; the marginalprice is the price paid for the lastincrement of consumption.Residential•Input data are the LBNL-TAPtariff sample for 90 utilities (updated in 2008) and monthlyconsumption datafrom RECS 2005.•The marginal price is defined bydecrementing the energy useand calculating the change inthe consumer electricity bill.Commercial•For commercial electricity consumers demand chargesare significant.•Prices are calculatedbased on previous analysis (CUAC and DT).•The tariff-based bill calculations are summarizedin an electricity cost function.•This cost function provides the price as a function of theenergy and demanddecrements.94 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govAEO 2009 Energy Price Forecasts• Energy price projections to 2030 based on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2009.Residential Electricity PricesResidential Natural GasPricesEnergy Prices95 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govIssuesRequest for Comment:Repair and Maintenance CostsRepair and Maintenance CostsDOE did not find any evidence that repair and maintenance costschange as product efficiency increases for room air conditioners andclothes dryers. DOE requests any specific information showing theextent to which repair and maintenance costs change as productefficiency increases beyond thebaseline levels used in DOE’sanalysis.DOE invites comment on the extent repair and maintenance costschange as product efficiency increases. (Issue #10)96 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govOther Inputs for LCCDiscount Rates (Primary data source: Federal Reserve Board’sSurvey of Consumer Financesforthe years 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2007).Product ClassMinimumAverageMaximumRoom Air Conditioners3.010.520.0Clothes Dryers5.016.030.0Housing TypeFinance Cost Based on:Mean(%)New Construction*Mortgage3.0ReplacementsHome equity loans, Credit card, Other loans, Checking & savingsaccounts, Certificatesof deposit, Bonds, Stocks4.8Equipment Lifetime (DOE used RECS equipment agedata, AHS equipment stock data, and shipmentsdata to derive lifetime distributions using a Weibull function.)* Clothes Dryers onlyOther Inputs for LCC97 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:LifetimeDOE conducted an analysis of actual lifetime in the field using acombination of shipments data, the stock of the consideredappliances, and responses in RECS on the age of the appliances inthe homes. The data allowed DOE to estimate a survival function,which provides an average and a median appliance lifetime. Thisanalysis yielded an average lifetime for room air conditioners ofapproximately 10.5 years and for clothes dryers of approximately 16years.DOE invites comment on its approach for estimating the lifetime ofclothes dryers and room air conditioners. (Issue #12)Issues98 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govLCC Savings and PBP ResultsExample:Room Air Conditioners, 8000-13,999 Btu/h, with LouversPreliminary ResultsEfficiencyLevelIEERBtu/hrLife-Cycle Cost(2008$)Life-Cycle Cost SavingsPayback Period(years)AverageInstalledPriceAverageOperatingCostAverageLCCAverageSavings(2008$)Households withMedianAverageNetCostNoImpactNetBenefitBaseline9.7 $489 $655 $1,144110.3 $502 $614 $1,117 $14 14%49% 37% 1.6 10.4210.8 $517 $584 $1,100 $23 17%47% 36% 2.5 11.9311.3 $543 $556 $1,099 $24 53%3% 44% 6.7 33.1411.5 $602 $546 $1,148 -$24 69% 1% 30% 11.2 79.199 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govLCC Savings and PBP ResultsExample:Electric Standard Clothes DryersPreliminary ResultsEfficiencyLevelIEFlb/kWhLife-Cycle Cost(2008$)Life-Cycle Cost SavingsPayback Period(years)AverageInstalledPriceAverageOperatingCostAverageLCCAverageSavings(2008$)Households withMedianAverageNetCostNoImpactNetBenefitBaseline2.96$552 $657 $1,20913.04$571 $638 $1,209 $0 19% 70%10% 15.2 35.623.10$651 $627 $1,277 -$54 78% 21% 1% 78.0 244.633.33$703 $584 $1,287 -$64 87% 0% 13% 30.5 88.243.35$705 $578 $1,284 -$60 86% 0% 14% 27.5 40.253.40$704 $563 $1,267 -$44 79% 0% 21% 20.6 24.664.52$953 $424 $1,377 -$154 85% 0%15% 24.9 34.7100 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govIssuesRequest for Comment:Other IssuesRepair and Maintenance CostsDOE invites comment and recommendations from interested partieson any other aspects related to the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis.101 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProductPriceLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesMarket &TechnologyAssessmentPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysisPreliminary Activities Flow Diagram102 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPurposeShipments Analysis:•To estimate room air conditioner andclothes dryer shipments over time.National Impact Analysis:•To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from room air conditioner andclothes dryer energy conservation standards at different efficiency levels.•To estimate the national economic impact on room air conditioner and clothesdryer consumers (or the Net Present Value (NPV)) from energy conservationstandards at different efficiency levels.National Impact Analysis103 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNational Impact Analysis ProcessShipmentsModelNationalEnergySavingsNationalConsumerEconomicImpactsLCC AnalysisResults andOther InputsNationalEnergy Savings(Quads)NationalNet Present Value(2008$, billion)• National energy savings calculated for period from 2014-2044.• NPV calculated for products shipped over the same period.National Impact Analysis104 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govShipments Analysis FlowchartExample:Room Air ConditionersHistorical ShipmentsRoom AirConditioner LifetimeReplacementShipmentsTotalShipmentsExisting Householdswithout any airconditioningAverage Room AirConditionerSaturationShipments to existinghouseholds adding anew room airconditionerTotalShipmentsShipments Analysis105 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govShipments Model InputsInputData Source/DescriptionNew Constructions & ReplacementsLifetime From Life-Cycle Cost AnalysisNew Construction ShipmentsClothes DryersForecasted New Housing Annual Energy Outlook 2009New Housing Saturations ResidentialEnergy Consumption Survey 2005Historical ShipmentsRoom Air Conditioners, ClothesDryersAHAM Data Submittal; AHAM Factbooks; Appliance MagazineShipment Distribution by Product ClassRoom Air Conditioners, ClothesDryersAHAM Data SubmittalShipments Analysis106 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRoom Air Conditioner Historical & Modeled ShipmentsShipments Analysis107 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govClothes Dryers Historical & Modeled ShipmentsShipments Analysis108 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNational Impact Analysis InputsTotal Installed CostAnnual weighted-average per unit values as afunction of efficiency level taken fromLCC analysis.Repair andMaintenance CostsAnnual values are a function of efficiency level (from LCC analysis).Annual Energy UseAnnual weighted-average per unit values as afunction of efficiency level taken fromLCC analysis.Base-CaseEfficienciesShipments-weighted efficiencies determinedfor the effective year. Based on base caseefficiency distributions from LCC analysis.Standards-CaseForecastedEfficienciesRoll-up scenario assumed for determiningshipment-weighted efficiency for eachstandards case.Both Base- and Standards-Case efficiencies: Frozen at the effective year.Energy PricesAverage prices and forecasted energy prices from EIA AEO2009forecasts (to 2030)and extrapolation to 2044.Electricity Site-toSource ConversionFactorsConversion factors based on marginal heatrates from NEMS corresponding to2007AEO. Factors vary annually and account for generation, distribution, andtransmission losses.Discount Rate7 percent and 3 percent real from OMB’s Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4.Present YearFuture expenses are discounted to the year 2011.Rebound EffectRoom Air Conditioners – 15 percentNational Impact Analysis109 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govForecasted EfficienciesExample:Room Air Conditioners: 8,000-13,999 Btu/h, With LouversBase-Case efficiency distribution fromLCC analysis.•Based on AHAM data submittal and for room air conditioners, also incorporated regional efficiencydistributions based on ENERGY STAR market shares.Standards-Case efficiency distributions basedon “Roll-up” scenario.•Efficiencies below the standard level “roll-up” to the standard level.•Efficiencies above the standard level are unaffected.Forecasted efficiencies assumedto remain constantat effective date level.EfficiencyLevelEERMarket SharesBaseCaseEfficiency Levels (analyzed)1234Baseline9.751%110.32%53%210.844%44%97%311.3 2% 2% 2% 99%411.5 1% 1% 1% 1% 100%Shipments-Weighted EER10.24 10.55 10.82 11.30 11.50National Impact Analysis110 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNational Energy Savings ResultsExample:Room Air Conditioners, 8,000-13,999 Btu/h, with LouversEfficiency Level2 - 10.8 Btu/hr00.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0072014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039

National Savings, QuadsNational Impact Analysis111 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNet Present Value ResultsExample:Room Air Conditioners, 8,000-13,999 Btu/h, with LouversAnnual Values Efficiency Level 2 – 10.8 Btu/hrNational Impact Analysis112 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNatural Gas Price Impacts Methodology and ResultsDOE conducted an analysisof the potential impacts ofroom air conditioners andclothes dryer energy conservation standards on natural gasprices on all sectors ofthe economy (this analysis is presented toprovide a base for input from interestedparties on an analysis DOEplans to include in the NOPR stage of the rulemaking).Methodology:•DOE’s analysis used NEMS, whichutilizes energy price elasticities to estimatethe change inprices that would result froma change in energy demand.•Two scenarios were analyzed for room air conditioners and clothes dryers: a) selection of thefirst efficiency level for all product classes, andb) all max-tech options.Results:•The estimated natural gas price reduction averages 0.2 cents per MMBtu (scenario 1) and 1.3cents per MMBtu (scenario 2).National Benefits:•The estimated economy-wide savings over the period 2014–2044 has anNPV (at 7 percentdiscount rate) of $0.22billion (scenario 1) and 3.25 billion (scenario 2).Natural Gas Price Impacts113 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govIssuesRequest for Comment:Other IssuesDOE invites comment and recommendations from interested partieson any other aspects related to the National Impact Analysis.114 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPreliminary Activities Flow DiagramFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProductPriceLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesMarket &TechnologyAssessmentPreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis115 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE conducted on-site and telephone interviews withmanufacturers of:•Residential clothes dryers; and•Room air conditioners.Topics included:•Engineering analysis overview, methodology, and results;•Key issues (as defined by manufacturer);•Current market conditions (shipments, market share, product mix,profitability);•Manufacturer subgroup analysis;•Product utility and innovation (performance vs. efficiency, design options);•Potential impacts of amended energy conservation standards (esp.conversion costs); and•Cumulative regulatory burdens (state, federal, international).Preliminary Manufacturer Impact Analysis (MIA) OverviewPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis116 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE interviewed manufacturers representing almost 90 percent ofthe U.S. residential clothes dryer market.Residential Clothes Dryer Preliminary MIAManufacturerSub-GroupAnalysisProductUtility andInnovationImpacts ofEfficiencyStandardsCurrentMarketConditionsKeyIssuesCumulativeRegulatoryBurdenPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis117 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govCumulative Regulatory Burden•Concern regarding the proposedUL Safety Requirement- Fire Containment/BurnResistant Standard, which would increase material costs and require developmentexpenditures.•Current and new DOE energy conservation standards rulemakings for other related,regulated equipment (e.g., residential and commercial clothes washers).•Potential Reduction of HazardousSubstances (RoHS) requirements.Impact on Product Mix•According to manufacturers,amended energy conservationstandards could result inlonger drying times for clothes dryers, especially at higher efficiency levels.•All manufacturers stated thatdryers requiring much over one hour todry one standardload would not currentlybe accepted by the majority of consumers.Residential Clothes Dryer Key IssuesPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis118 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govENERGY STAR Program:•Multiple manufacturersindicated that an ENERGY STAR program would help justifyprograms for higherefficiency research.•Consumers are becoming more educated on clothes dryers andwould like to see theseproducts follow clothes washers in improving efficiency.•ENERGY STAR could be thedifferentiator needed to ensuresales, particularly forhigh-end products.Economic Impacts:•Manufacturers expressed concern regarding the current economic conditions and theimpacts it has had on their operations and workforce.•Customers that purchase high-end products are only buying clothes dryers asnecessary; lower-end product customers are still buying washers and dryers in pairs;and middle-end product customers are not makingnew purchases at all. Repairs willincrease as customerstry to maintain their current products longer.•Reductions in workforces make it difficult to justify new product development andsupport productrulemakings.•Capital expenditures are extremelycontrolled, with strict limitationson how much canbe allocated for design improvements.Residential Clothes Dryer Key IssuesPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis119 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govImpact on Profitability:•Profit margins are likely tobe affected if new ormore costly known technologies mustbe introduced into the marketto meet amended standards.•For some manufacturers, especially those with low market share, stringent standardscould reduce their profit marginto a point where the U.S. market is no longer attractive.•Several manufacturers also mentioned that if they wereforced to redesign productsdue to amended standards, costs would increase and theywould reduce the scope oftheir products and even cut entire product platforms toremain profitable.Product Conversion Costs:•For lower-volume manufacturers, high capital costs for new tooling and equipment maynot be justifiable given their production volume, and they would resort to usingpurchased parts at a higherper-unit cost to minimize capital investments.•Multiple lower-volumemanufacturers statedthat amended standards set at EfficiencyLevel 2 and above would most likely force them to exit the residential market due to theinvestment requirements and the resultant market outlook.•Multiple manufacturers also expressed concern over howthe implementation of newdesign changes for clothesdryers would affect theirstandardization of common parts.Residential Clothes Dryer Key IssuesPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis120 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govProduct Innovation:•Some manufacturers indicated that the implementation of amended standards couldforce a choice of technologiestoo quickly to meet a standard.•All manufacturers are concerned that new or amended standards would take awayfrom investments in possible innovations that wouldtake place without standards.Residential Clothes Dryer Key IssuesPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis121 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:Residential Clothes Dryer Manufacturer SubgroupsDOE research suggests that there are no residential clothes dryermanufacturers in the United States that are designated as smallbusinesses by the U.S. Small Business Administration. DOEinvites comment on whether a manufacturer subgroup analysisis appropriate for the NOPR stage. (Issue #14)Preliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysisRequest for Comment:Residential Clothes Dryer Manufacturer Subgroups122 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govResidential clothes dryer manufacturers must also comply with theUnderwriters Laboratory (UL) fire containment regulation forclothes dryers. DOE seeks information from interested parties tofurther evaluate this issue in the NOPR analyses. (Issue #3)Preliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysisRequest for Comment:Underwriters Laboratory FireSafety Regulation for ClothesDryers123 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE interviewed manufacturers representing nearly 30 percent ofthe U.S. room air conditioner market..Room Air Conditioner Preliminary MIAManufacturerSub-GroupAnalysisProductUtility andInnovationImpacts ofEfficiencyStandardsCurrentMarketConditionsKeyIssuesCumulativeRegulatoryBurdenPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis124 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govCumulative Regulatory Burden:•All manufacturers reported challengesregarding the 2010 EPA phase-out ofthe use of HCFC-22 refrigerant in new equipment.•Issues included concern about reliability and performance of R-410Acompressors, and size constraints of room air conditioners whilemaintaining current efficiency levels.•Potential changes to electrical codes for fire safety could add further costsand manufacturing complexity.•Multiple manufacturers also mentioned possible carbon-penaltiesassociated with future greenhouse gasregulations, RoHS requirements,and Canadian product safetyregistration payments.Room Air Conditioner Key IssuesPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis125 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govThe Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) banned productionand import of HCFC-22 for newly manufactured equipment in theU.S., starting on January 1, 2010.Manufacturers reported many challenges with addressing thisregulation.•Higher manufacturing costs•Reliability ofR-410A compressors•Maintaining size constraints while meeting existing efficiency levelsR-410A compressors do not extend over the full range ofcapacities and EERs of HCFC-22 compressors, especially forhigh-capacity room air conditioner compressors (> 1.5 Tons).R-410A operates at higher pressures and thus requires thickertubing.Conversion from HCFC-22 to R-410APreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis126 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govImpact on Product Mix/ENERGY STAR Program:•Manufacturers reported lower efficiencies with R-410A refrigerant unitsversus HCFC-22 units for a given cabinet size.•Required changes may result in a decrease in total shipments, due toconstraints in the efficiency levels that can bereached within the currentchassis sizes.•Size limitations are especially relevant in the through-the-wall market.•Increases in product size could have a significant impact on consumerutility.Room Air Conditioner Key IssuesPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis127 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govIndustry Consolidation:•Multiple manufacturers stated thatthe number of factories supplying theU.S. market has shrunk from 20 to30 factories to less than 10, even asproduction volumes have increased.•Amended standards could accelerate this consolidation.•No major manufacturing facilities remainin the U.S. – most production is inAsia (particularly China), with some in Mexico.Impact on Profitability:•Some manufacturers believe theywould experience a reduction inENERGY STAR-qualified product sales with changes in efficiencystandards.•Room air conditioner units bought bylower-income consumers are pricesensitive.•Industry profit margins have continually decreased and could continue todecrease with amended energyconservation standards.Room Air Conditioner Key IssuesPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis128 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govProduct Conversion Costs:•Manufacturers commented that the availability of technology options forefficiency improvement and the cost ofbringing them to market is a keyconcern.•Low margins of the room air conditionerbusiness make it difficult to recoupany product development, conversion, etc. costs.•Amended energy conservation standardscould exacerbate somemanufacturers’ disadvantage of notcontrolling component development.Product Innovation:•Some manufacturers believe thatproduct innovation would be stymied.•Resources would be focused on redesigning for efficiency improvementrather than on the development of new products.•In contrast, other manufacturers believe product innovation would benefitfrom amended standards as the potential for compressor and motortechnology evaluation would increase.Room Air Conditioner Key IssuesPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis129 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govImpact on Consumer Subgroups:•Multiple manufacturers expressedconcern regarding the impacts on lowincome and elderly subgroups.•Higher cost necessitated from amended energy conservation standardsmay cause these individuals tochoose not to buy such units.•This would put those consumers at risk of heatstroke and other heatrelated medical issues.Room Air Conditioner Key IssuesPreliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysis130 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE research suggests that there is at least one room airconditioner manufacturer that is a small business. DOE invitescomment on whether a manufacturer subgroup analysis isappropriate for the NOPR stage. (Issue #14)Preliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysisRequest for Comment:Room Air Conditioner Manufacturer Subgroups131 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE welcomes comments and recommendations frominterested parties on any aspects related to the PreliminaryManufacturer Impact Analysis.Preliminary Manufacturer ImpactAnalysisRequest for Comment:Other Issues132 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNOPR Analyses Flow DiagramFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleTrialStandardLevelsRevisePreliminaryAnalysesManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalAssessmentRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysis133 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPurpose:•To develop a list of potential amended standard levels from which impacts are weighed and aproposed standard level is selected.– Each trial standard levelconsists of a set of efficiencylevels covering all product classes,and may vary between product classes.– NOPR analyses assess impactsfor trial standard levels (not efficiencylevels for eachproduct class).Method:•Trial standard levelsare assembled from the product classes and efficiencylevels identified inthe preliminary analyses.– Trial standard levels cover a range of efficiencies and can include:Most energy efficient level (max-tech);Efficiency level with the lowest life-cycle cost;Efficiency level with a paybackperiod of three years or less;Efficiency levels with noteworthy technologies; andEfficiency levels thatfill in large gaps.Selection of Trial Standard LevelsTrial Standard Levels134 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:Criteria for the Selection of Trial Standard LevelsDOE requests feedback on the criteria it should use forbasing the selection of Trial Standard Levels.A critical part of the NOPR analysis on which DOE is seeking earlyguidance is the criteria used in selecting trial standard levels.Trial standard levels are created from combinations of efficiencylevels at the product class level.Issues135 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNOPR Analyses Flow DiagramFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleTrialStandardLevelsRevisePreliminaryAnalysesUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalAssessmentRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysis136 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govManufacturer Impact AnalysisPurpose:•To assess the impacts of standards on residentialclothes dryer and room air conditionermanufacturers.•To identify and estimate impacts on manufacturersub-groups that maybe more severelyimpacted than the industry as a whole.•To examine the impact of cumulativeregulatory burdenson the industry.Method:•Analyze industry cash flow and net present value through use ofthe Government RegulatoryImpact Model (GRIM).•Interview manufacturersto refine inputs to the GRIM, develop sub-group analyses, and addressqualitative issues.Output:•Industry Net Present Value impacts;•Sub-group Net PresentValue impacts; and•Other impacts.Manufacturer Impact Analysis137 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.gov• The MIA consists of three phases:Manufacturer Impact Analysis ProcessIndustryprofileDevelopstraw-manGRIM*DevelopinterviewguideInterviews& industrywide /subgroupanalysesAssess directemployment,competition,cumulativeburdenFinalizeMIA resultsfor NOPRPhase 2* Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM)Phase 3Phase 1Manufacturer Impact Analysis138 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govThe MIA is both concurrent and coordinated with activitiesthroughout the rulemaking process.Phase IIndustry ProfilePhase IIIManufacturer InterviewsRevised Industry Cash FlowManufacturer Subgroup AnalysisQualitative AssessmentPhase II“Strawman” GRIMManufacturer Impact AnalysisScreening AnalysisScreening AnalysisEngineering AnalysisEngineering AnalysisLCC AnalysisLCC AnalysisNational EnergySavings AnalysisNational EnergySavings AnalysisConsumer SubgroupConsumer SubgroupUtility ImpactsUtility ImpactsEnvironmental ImpactsEnvironmental ImpactsOther Rulemaking AnalysesIndirect EmploymentImpactsIndirect EmploymentImpactsManufacturer Impact Analysis139 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPhase I: Industry ProfileCollect financial and market information:•Industry reports;•Company annual reports and websites;•Trade journals;•U.S. Census Bureau;•SEC 10-K form filings;•Information from the preliminary activities preceding the NOPR:manufacturer production costs,markups; and manufacturer sellingprices, shipments.Manufacturer Impact Analysis140 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govManufacturer PricesShipmentsManufacturing CostsFinancial InformationCash Flow Impacts,Changes in Industry NPVGRIMPhase II: Develop Straw-man GRIMThe Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM) is an industrycash flow analysis that estimates the change in industry valuedue to the introduction of new efficiency standards.Manufacturer Impact Analysis141 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govA critical aspect of the MIA involves interviews with manufacturers. Aninterview guide is sent to manufacturers in preparation for Phase III.Interview topics will include:•Engineering analysis;•Shipments model;•Cost structure and financial parameters;•Conversion costs (capital expenditures, tooling, R&D, testing);•Impact of other regulations / cumulative burden;•Direct employment impacts;•Import / Export issues;•Consolidation / competitive impacts;•Replacement parts or refurbishments;•Impact of the standard’s effective date; and•Other topics importantto manufacturers.Phase II: Develop Interview GuideManufacturer Impact Analysis142 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govInterviews are expected to be conducted early in the NOPR phase.DOE encourages all interested manufacturers to provide inputs tothe MIA in support of the:•Industry-wide GRIM;•GRIM assumptions; and•Manufacturer subgroup analysis.Proprietary information is protected.•Confidentiality agreements are executed.•Quantitative information is aggregated.Phase III: Manufacturer InterviewsManufacturer Impact Analysis143 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govThe subgroup analysis is a more focused version of theindustry-wide analysis.•Work with subgroup representatives to better understand andqualify the differential impactsof potential amended energyconservation standards on these groups.•Consider and focus on issues ofimportance to the subgroup,including employment, capacityutilization and cumulativeburden.•Review draft findings with subgroup members duringdevelopment.Phase III: Manufacturer Subgroup AnalysisManufacturer Impact Analysis144 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:Cumulative Regulatory BurdenDOE seeks to mitigate the overlapping effects on manufacturers ofamended energy conservation standards and other regulatory actionsaffecting the same products.While any one regulation may not impose a significant burden onmanufacturers, the combined effects of several impending regulationsmay have serious consequences for some manufacturers, groups ofmanufacturers, or an entire industry.As part of the MIA, DOE will assess the potential cumulativeregulatory burden on manufacturers of residential clothes dryers androom air conditioners.Manufacturer Impact Analysis145 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:Residential Clothes Dryers: Cumulative Regulatory BurdenDOE requests comment on the potential regulationsfacing the residential clothes dryer industry.DOE identified the following regulations that could impactmanufacturers of residential clothes dryers:•UL Safety Requirement - Fire Containment/Burn Resistant Standard;•DOE’s amended energy conservationstandards for other products; and•RoHS requirements.Manufacturer Impact Analysis146 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govRequest for Comment:Room Air Conditioners: Cumulative Regulatory BurdenDOE requests comment on the potential regulationsfacing the room air conditioner industry.DOE identified the following regulations that could impactmanufacturers of room air conditioner products:•Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ban on HCFC refrigerants innew products;•DOE’s amended energy conservationstandards for other products;•Potential greenhouse gas regulations;•RoHS requirements;•Electrical codes for fire safety;Manufacturer Impact Analysis147 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE identified small businesses and is interested in the potentialimpacts as a result of amended energy conservation standards.DOE defines small businesses using the Small BusinessAdministration (SBA) definitions.•Residential clothes dryers and roomair conditioners are matched to theNorth American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code 335224,Household Laundry Equipment Manufacturing, or NAICS code 33341,Ventilation, Heating, Air-Conditioning, and Commercial RefrigerationEquipment Manufacturing.•Small businesses under these codesare defined as 500 employees orfewer.Residential Clothes Dryers:•DOE identified no small businesses.Room Air Conditioners:•DOE identified at least one small business.Request for Comment:Small Business ImpactsManufacturer Impact Analysis148 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE invites comments on the identification of any smallbusinesses within the residential clothes dryer or room airconditioner industries. (Issue #14)Manufacturer Impact AnalysisRequest for Comment:Small Business Impacts149 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNOPR Analyses Flow DiagramFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleTrialStandardLevelsRevisePreliminaryAnalysesUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalAssessmentRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysis150 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPurpose:•To investigate the effects on utilities from reduced energy sales and peak loaddemand due to potential standards.Method:•Uses national energy savings results.•Uses the Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System(NEMS) tailored for DOE’s Building Technologies Program (NEMS-BT).Output:•Change in energy sales and price by region.•Change in the mix of electricity generation.•Change in new capacity construction.Utility Impact AnalysisUtility Impact Analysis151 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNOPR Analyses Flow DiagramFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleTrialStandardLevelsRevisePreliminaryAnalysesManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalAssessmentRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysis152 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govEmployment Impact AnalysisPurpose:•To report net jobs created or eliminated nationally as a consequence of newenergy conservation standards.Method:•Uses the ImSET tool, a spreadsheet modelof the U.S. economy that focuses on188 sectors most relevant to industrial,commercial, and residential buildingenergy use.•Changes in product and energy expenditures taken from the National ImpactAnalysis.•Estimates the national employment andincome effects of energy savingappliances.•Direct employment impacts taken from the Manufacturer Impact Analysis.Output:•Change in employment by sectoras a consequence of new standards.Employment Impact Analysis153 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNOPR Analyses Flow DiagramFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleTrialStandardLevelsRevisePreliminaryAnalysesManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalAssessmentRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysis154 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPurpose:•To report environmental impacts as aconsequence of new energy conservationstandards, including changes in power plantemissions as well as emissions inhouseholds due to the use of gas appliances.Method:•Energy savings results taken from the National Impact Analysis.•Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)provides power-plant emissions.•‘In-Building’ emissions due to fossil-fuelfired appliances tobe determined usingemission factors.•Economic benefits resulting from emissions reductions based on a range ofmonetary values.Output:•Estimate of national emission reductions of SO2, NOx, mercury and CO2.– Power plant SO2, NOx, and mercury are effectively capped throughCongressional legislation resulting inlittle to no emission reductions due tostandards.– In-building SO2and NOxstill emitted by fossil-fuel fired appliances.Environmental AssessmentEnvironmental Assessment155 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govNOPR Analyses Flow DiagramFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleTrialStandardLevelsRevisePreliminaryAnalysesManufacturerImpactAnalysisUtilityImpactAnalysisEnvironmentalAssessmentRegulatoryImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysis156 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govPurpose:•To investigate the national impacts dueto non-regulatory alternatives comparedwith mandatory energyconservation standards.•The non-regulatory alternativesthat may be considered:– No new regulatory action; early replacement; prescriptive standards;consumer tax credits; manufacturer taxcredits; consumer rebates; voluntaryefficiency targets; bulk government procurement.Method:•Modify NES spreadsheet model toconsider non-regulatory scenarios.– Non-regulatory scenarios increase overall appliance efficiency and aremodeled by modifying the base case efficiency trend.– NPV calculated for non-regulatory alternatives in the same way as for theadopted standard.Each non-regulatory scenario will decrease national applianceoperating costs and increaseappliance equipment prices.Output:•National Energy Savings and Net Present Value of the non-regulatoryalternatives.Regulatory Impact AnalysisRegulatory Impact Analysis157 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.govDOE requests comments and invites questions frominterested parties regarding the Department of Energy’sResidential Clothes Dryer and Room Air ConditionerEnergy Conservation Standards Rulemaking.Final Comments and Questions158 | Residential Clothes Dryer and Room Air Conditioner Energy Conservation Standardseere.energy.gov• Public Meeting– Oral comments will be captured in the transcript andbecome part of the public record.• Written comments– Preliminary Activities and Analyses comment periodopen until April 26, 2010. Referencedocket #: EERE-2007-BT-STD-0010and/or RIN #: 1904–AA89.Email: home_appliance2.rulemaking@ee.doe.govMail: Ms. Brenda EdwardsU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies Program, Mail stop EE-2JPublic Meeting for Residential Clothes Dryers and Room AirConditionersEE-2007-STD-00101000 Independence Avenue, SW.Washington DC, 20585-0121Courier: Ms. Brenda EdwardsU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies Program950 L’Enfant Plaza, SW., Suite 600Washington, DC, 20024How to Submit Comments...