EnergyConservationStandardsNoticeofProposedRulemakingRegardingEnergyConservationStandardsandTestProceduresforASHRAEEquipmentFebruary6,2015ComHeatingACWHEquipment2014STD0015@ee.doe.gov2Welcome•Introductions(aroundtheroom)•RoleoftheFacilitator•GroundRules–Speakoneatatime.–Sayyournamefortherecord– therewillbeacompletetranscriptofthismeeting.–Beconcise– sharethe‘air‐time’.–Keepthefocushere– cellphonesonsilent;limitsidebarconversations.–Webinarparticipantsturnphoneonmute;‘raiseyourhand’toberecognizedtospeak.•HousekeepingItems•AgendaReview•OpeningRemarks3ListeningViatheWebcast•TheDepartmentisbroadcastingthismeetingliveovertheInternet.•DOEisprovidingthewebcasttoaccommodatestakeholderswhoareunabletoattendthepublicmeetinginperson.•Thewebbroadcastallowsstakeholderstolisteninandviewtheslides,aswellasparticipateafter‘raisinghand’.•Allstakeholdersareencouragedtosubmitwrittencommentsafterthepublicmeeting.4PurposeofthePublicMeeting•PresenttheproceduralandanalyticalapproachestoevaluatepotentialenergyconservationstandardsfortheAmericanSocietyofHeating,Refrigerating,andAir‐conditioningEngineers(ASHRAE)equipment.•Invitecommentontheenergyconservationstandardsnoticeofproposedrulemaking(NOPR)andtechnicalsupportdocument(TSD),includingDOE’sproposedstandardlevelsandproposedtestprocedureupdates.•Inviteparticipantstoprovidesummarycommentsorstatementsandraiseadditionalissuesfordiscussion.5Issue“Boxes”forDiscussion•Issue“boxes”correspondtothelistofissuesonwhichtheDepartmentseekscomments.IssueBox:DOEwelcomescomments,data,andinformationconcerningthestandardsitisconsideringforASHRAEequipment.IssuesthatcorrespondtothoseraisedinDOE’spublishedmaterialwillbepresented.Whetherinvitedbyanissueboxornot,commentsarewelcomeonanypartofDOE’sanalysis.•ThedeadlineforsubmittingcommentsisMarch24,2015.6OpeningRemarksMeetingparticipantsareinvitedtoprovideopeningremarksorstatementsatthistime.7PublicMeetingTopics1IntroductionandOverview;DeterminationofScope2TestProcedures3MarketAssessment;Engineering4Markups;EnergyUse;Life‐CycleCost&PaybackPeriodAnalysis5Shipments;NationalImpactAnalysis6EmissionsandUtilityImpactAnalyses7ClosingRemarks8StatutoryAuthority:ASHRAETrigger•TheEnergyPolicyandConservationAct(EPCA)directsDOEtoconsideramendingtheexistingFederalenergyconservationstandardforeachtypeofequipmentlistedat42U.S.C.6313(a)(6)(A)(i),eachtimeASHRAEStandard90.1isamendedwithrespecttosuchequipment.(42U.S.C.6313(a)(6)(A)‐(B))•Foreachtypeofequipment,EPCAdirectsthatifASHRAEStandard90.1isamended,DOEmustreviewandadoptamendedstandardsatthenewefficiencylevelinASHRAEStandard90.1,unlessclearandconvincingevidencesupportsadeterminationthatadoptionofamorestringentefficiencylevelwould:–Producesignificantadditionalenergysavings;–Betechnologicallyfeasible;and–Beeconomicallyjustified.(42U.S.C.6313(a)(6)(A)(ii))•OnOctober9,2013,ASHRAEreleasedStandard90.1‐2013,triggeringDOE’sstatutoryobligation.9DeterminationofScope•DOEcomparedthecurrentFederalenergyconservationstandardstotheefficiencylevelsinASHRAEStandard90.1‐2013toidentifyanyincreasesinstringency,therebytriggeringDOEaction.EquipmentType DOE’sProposedActionOil‐firedStorageWaterHeaters AdoptingASHRAElevelsSmallThree‐PhaseAir‐CooledAirConditioners(Single‐Packageonly)andHeatPumps(Single‐PackageandSplit‐System)<65,000Btu/hAdoptingASHRAElevelsWater‐sourceHeatPumps AdoptingASHRAElevelsPackageTerminalAirConditionersFurtheranalysisinaseparaterulemakingSingle‐PackageVerticalAirConditioners(SPVACs)andSingle‐PackageVerticalHeatPumps(SPVHPs)FurtheranalysisinaseparaterulemakingNote: ASHRAE90.1‐2013didnotchangeanyofthedesignrequirementsforthecommercialHVACandwater‐heatingequipmentcoveredbyEPCA..10RationaleforAdoptionofASHRAE90.1‐2013Levels•Foroil‐firedstoragewaterheaters,energysavingsestimatedintheApril11,2014noticeofdataavailability(NODA)(79FR20114)weredeminimus(0.001‐0.002quads).•Forthree‐phaseair‐cooledairconditionersandheatpumpslessthan65,000Btu/h,therewasalackofclearandconvincingevidencejustifyinghigherstandardsdueto:–NegativeconsumerLCCsavingsatalllevels–NegativenationalNPVatalllevels•Forwater‐sourceheatpumps,therewasalackofclearandconvincingevidencejustifyinghigherstandardsdueprimarilyto:–PositivenationalNPVonlyatEL1,whichoffersverylittleenergysavings–Uncertaintyincoolingandheatingenergyuseestimatesduetoageofdataandlackofreliableinformationaboutapplications–Uncertaintyinmagnitudeofshipmentsestimates11PublicMeetingTopics1IntroductionandOverview;DeterminationofScope2TestProcedures3MarketAssessment;Engineering4Markups;EnergyUse;Life‐CycleCost&PaybackPeriodAnalysis5Shipments;NationalImpactAnalysis6EmissionsandUtilityImpactAnalyses7ClosingRemarks12TestProcedures:ASHRAE90.1Updates•EPCArequiresDOEtoamendanytestprocedureforASHRAEproductstothelatestversiongenerallyacceptedbytheindustry,asreferencedinASHRAE/IESStandard90.1,unlesstheSecretarydeterminesthatclearandconvincingevidenceexiststhatthelatestversionoftheindustrytestproceduredoesnotmeettherequirementsfortestproceduresunder42U.S.C.6314(a)(2)‐(3).(42U.S.C.6314(a)(4)(A)‐(B))•DOEisproposingtoupdateitscommercialwarm‐airfurnacetestproceduretoreferencethefollowingupdatedindustrystandards:–ANSIZ21.47‐2012,StandardforGas‐FiredCentralFurnaces–ASHRAE103‐2007,MethodofTestingforAnnualFuelUtilizationEfficiencyofResidentialCentralFurnacesandBoilers•DOEreviewedtheupdatedversionsandfoundthatthemethodsdonotdifferfromthoseinthecurrentFederaltestmethod.Thus,DOEdoesnotbelievetheupdatesalsowouldnotaltermeasuredenergyuse.13PublicMeetingTopics1IntroductionandOverview;DeterminationofScope2TestProcedures3MarketAssessment;Engineering4Markups;EnergyUse;Life‐CycleCost&PaybackPeriodAnalysis5Shipments;NationalImpactAnalysis6EmissionsandUtilityImpactAnalyses7ClosingRemarks14ASHRAERulemakingProcessNODANOPRFinalRuleComplianceDateEngineeringAnalysisEnergyUseAnalysisShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisMarkupsAnalysisLife‐CycleCostandPaybackPeriodAnalysisEmissionsImpact,Monetization,andUtilityImpactAnalysisMarketAssessment15EquipmentCovered•Thefollowingsectionsincludeanalysesfortwotypesofequipment:3‐Phaseair‐cooledcommercialpackagedair‐conditioningandheatingequipment(CAC/HP)(<65,000Btu/hcoolingcapacity)Water‐sourceheatpumps16EquipmentClassesfor3‐PhaseCAC/HPEquipmentCategory CoolingCapacity Sub‐Category3‐PhaseCAC/HPSmallCommercialPackagedAir‐ConditioningandHeatingEquipment(Air‐Cooled,3‐Phase,Split‐System)<65,000Btu/hACHPSmallCommercialPackagedAir‐ConditioningandHeatingEquipment(Air‐Cooled,3‐Phase,Single‐Package)<65,000Btu/hACHP•CurrentFederalstandardsdonotdifferentiatesplit‐systemandsingle‐packageequipmentfor3‐phaseCAC/HP.•ASHRAEStandard90.1‐2013dividessmall(<65,000Btu/hcoolingcapacity),three‐phasecommercialheatingandcoolingequipmentintofourcategories,basedon:– Functionality(airconditionerandheatpump)– Configuration(split‐systemandsingle‐package)•Inthisrulemaking,DOEproposestoamenditsequipmentclassesforsuchequipmenttoseparatesplit‐systemandsingle‐packageequipment:17Generatecost‐efficiencycurves,whichaccountforfullmanufacturerproductioncosts(MPCs).Conductphysicalandcatalogteardownandcostmodelinganalysisforunitsattheefficiencylevelsidentified.Developefficiencylevels(ELs)thatspantherangeofefficiencyfrombaselinetomax‐techlevel.EngineeringAnalysis:MethodologyDevelopBaselineDevelopEfficiencyLevelsCalculateCostsGenerateCost‐EfficiencyCurvesEstablishbaselineefficiencylevelsforeachequipmentclass.•IntheEngineeringAnalysis,DOEcharacterizestherelationshipbetweenmanufacturercostandenergyefficiency.18BaselineandMax‐TechEfficiencyLevels– 3‐PhaseCAC/HP•DOEusedtheASHRAEStandard90.1–2013minimumenergyefficiencyrequirementstocharacterizethebaselineefficiencylevelforeachequipmentclassofthree‐phasecommercialairconditionersandheatpumps.•DOEestablishedincrementalefficiencylevels(ELs)basedonareviewoftheAHRIDatabase,manufacturercatalogs,andotherpublicly‐availableliterature.•Max‐techlevelswerederivedfromthemarketmaximumlevelsintheAHRIDatabase,asofNovember2013.Split‐SystemACSingle‐PackageACSplit‐SystemHPSingle‐Package HPSEER13.0 14.0 14.0 14.0HSPF‐ ‐8.2 8.0Baseline– ASHRAEStandard90.1‐201319IncrementalEfficiencyLevels– 3‐PhaseCAC/HPSplit‐SystemACSingle‐PackageACSplit‐SystemHPSingle‐PackageHPSEER SEER SEER HSPF* SEER HSPF*ASHRAEBaseline13 14 14 8.2 14 8.0Efficiency Level0**14‐ ‐‐‐ ‐EfficiencyLevel115 15 15 8.5 15 8.4EfficiencyLevel216 16 16 8.7 16 8.8EfficiencyLevel317 17 17 9.0 17 8.9EfficiencyLevel418 18 18 9.2 18 9.1EfficiencyLevel519 19‐‐‐ ‐* HSPF was developed from the SEER-HSPF correlation from the 2011 Direct Final Rule for centralair conditioners and heat pumps. 76 FR 37408(June 27, 2011).** Split-system AC only.20ManufacturingCostModel– 3‐PhaseCAC/HP•ManufacturingcostmodelsweredevelopedbyDOEaspartofthereverse‐engineeringapproach.RawMaterialsFinishedMaterialsPurchasedPartsPhysicalTeardownSelectionofUnitsFabricationProcessesBillofMaterialsAssemblyProcessesManufacturingCost•Thecostmodelgeneratedmanufacturing,material,labor,andoverheadcosts.•Physicalteardownanalysiswasconductedwithrepresentativeequipment.•Catalogteardownanalysisusedmodifiedcostmodelsfrompreviouslydisassembledequipment.•3‐tonunitswereanalyzedastherepresentativecapacity.21EquipmentCovered3‐Phaseair‐cooledcommercialpackagedair‐conditioningandheatingequipment(CAC/HP)(<65,000Btu/hcoolingcapacity)Water‐sourceheatpumps22Water‐SourceHeatPumpDefinitionandNomenclature•InStandard90.1‐2013,ASHRAEchangedthenameoftheequipmenttypefrom‘water‐source’to‘water‐to‐air,water‐loop’andchangedtheheatingmodeefficiencymetricfromCOPtoCOPH.–DOEisproposingtochangeitsequipmentclassnamesto“water‐source(water‐to‐air,water‐loop)heatpumps.”–DOEhastentativelydecidednottoadopttheeditorialchangeinthemetric(usedbyASHRAEtoclarifythedifferencebetweenCOPforrefrigerationandCOPforheatpumps).•Becausethereiscurrentlynodefinitionforwater‐sourceheatpumpintheU.S.CodeorCodeofFederalRegulations(otherthananexclusionforground‐water‐sourceunits),DOEisproposingthefollowingdefinitionforthisequipmenttype:–Water‐sourceheatpumpmeansasingle‐phaseorthree‐phasereverse‐cycleheatpumpofallcapacities(upto760,000Btu/h)thatusesacirculatingwaterloopastheheatsourceforheatingandastheheatsinkforcooling.Themaincomponentsareacompressor,refrigerant‐to‐waterheatexchanger,refrigerant‐to‐airheatexchanger,refrigerantexpansiondevices,refrigerantreversingvalve,andindoorfan.Suchequipmentincludes,butisnotlimitedto,water‐to‐airwater‐loopheatpumps.IssueBox:DOEseekscommentontheproposeddefinitionof“water‐sourceheatpump.”23MarketAssessment:Water‐SourceHeatPump•ASHRAEStandard90.1‐2013divideswater‐sourceheatpumpsintothreecategories,basedoncoolingcapacity:•DOEobtainedequipmentandmarketdataforwater‐sourceheatpumpsfromtheAHRICertifiedProductDatabase.EquipmentCategory CoolingCapacityWater‐SourceHeatPumpsSmallCommercialPackagedAir‐ConditioningandHeatingEquipment(Water‐Source:Water‐to‐Air,Water‐Loop)<17,000Btu/h≥17,000Btu/hand<65,000Btu/h≥65,000Btu/hand<135,000Btu/h24IncrementalEfficiencyLevels– Water‐SourceHeatPumpWSHP<17,000Btu/hWSHP≥17,000Btu/hand <65,000Btu/hWSHP≥65,000Btu/hand <135,000Btu/hEERCurrentFederalStandard11.2 12.0 12.0ASHRAEBaseline12.2 13.0 13.0EfficiencyLevel113.0 14.6 14.0EfficiencyLevel214.0 16.6 15.0EfficiencyLevel315.7 18.0 16.0EfficiencyLevel416.5 19.2 17.2EfficiencyLevel518.1 21.6‐•DOEselectedefficiencylevelsbasedontherangeofefficienciesrepresentedbyequipmentintheAHRIdatabase.–DOEusedASHRAElevelsasthebaselineforanalysis.25ManufacturingCostModel– Water‐SourceHeatPumps•DOEusedacatalogdatacostanalysisapproachforwater‐sourceheatpumps.•Acostmodelbaseduponpreviouslydisassembledcommercialheatingandcoolingequipmentwithsimilarcomponentswasadaptedforwater‐sourceheatpumps.–PublishedWSHPmanufacturercatalogdata,includingdimensionsandcomponentdetails,wereusedtodevelopthecostmodels.•DOEconductedcatalogteardownsofover60unitsspanningtheequipmentclassesandefficiencylevels.26PublicMeetingTopics1IntroductionandOverview;DeterminationofScope2TestProcedures3MarketAssessment;Engineering4Markups;EnergyUse;Life‐CycleCost&PaybackPeriodAnalysis5Shipments;NationalImpactAnalysis6EmissionsandUtilityImpactAnalyses7ClosingRemarks27MarkupsAnalysisPurpose•Determinecustomerpricesbasedonmanufacturer’sproductioncost(MPC)forbaselineandhigher‐efficiencyequipment.•Characterize3‐PhaseCAC/CHPandWSHPdistributionchannels.Method•Analyzecompanydirectcosts,expenses,andprofits–Manufacturers:2006‐2011SEC10‐KReports–Wholesalers:HARDI2012ProfitReport–MechanicalContractors:ACCA1995FinancialAnalysisfortheHVACRContractingIndustryandU.S.CensusBureau,2007Plumbing,Heating,andAir‐ConditioningContractors–GeneralContractors:U.S.CensusBureau,2007CommercialandInstitutionalBuildingConstruction–SalesTaxes:TheSalesTaxClearinghouseWholesalerSmallMechanicalContractorGeneralContractorConsumerManufacturerLargeMechanicalContractorGeneralContractorConsumerWholesalerSmallMechanicalContractorConsumerManufacturerLargeMechanicalContractorConsumerNewConstructionReplacements12%8%49%31%28•BaselineMarkups–RelatetheMPCofbaselineequipmenttothecustomerpurchaseprice.•IncrementalMarkups–RelatetheincreaseinMPCofmore‐efficientequipmenttotheincreaseincustomerpurchaseprice.MarkupsAnalysis:OverallMarkupsDistributionChannelReplacement NewConstructionBaselineIncrementalBaselineIncrementalManufacturer1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30Wholesaler1.36 1.10 1.36 1.10MechanicalContractor(large/small)1.38/1.58 1.10/1.26 1.30/1.50 1.04/1.20GeneralContractor‐‐ ‐‐1.31 1.20Salestax1.07 1.07‐‐ ‐‐OverallMarkup(large/smallcontractor)2.60/2.99 1.70/1.94 3.00/3.47 1.78/2.0629EnergyUseAnalysisPurpose•Determineunitenergyconsumption(UEC)of3‐phaseCAC,3‐phaseCHP,andWSHPattheconsideredefficiencylevelstofindannualenergycostsandsavings.•AnnualenergycostsareinputstoLife‐CycleCostandPaybackPeriodAnalysis.Method•ObtainednationalaverageUECdatafrompreviousDOEreports,includingthe2011DFRforresidentialCACandthe2000ScreeningAnalysisforEPACT‐CoveredEquipment.•AdjustedUECtoaccountforchangesinbuildingstockovertime.•Incorporatedvariabilityusingestimatesoffull‐loadequivalentoperatinghours(FLEOH)bybuildingtypeandCensusDivision.30EnergyUseAnalysis:BaseUECsandAdjustment•3‐PhaseCACandCHP–Cooling:UECsbyefficiencylevelforsingle‐phaseequipmentinstalledincommercialbuildings,aspresentedinNIAfor2011DFRforresidentialCACandCHP.(EERE‐2011‐BT‐STD‐011‐011)–Heating:Determinedfrom2011analysisthatheatingUECdidnotscaleproportionallywithHSPFandthatincreasingHSPFwouldnotlikelyresultinsignificantenergysavings.•WSHP–Cooling:UECsbyefficiencylevelscaledfromvaluesprovidedinthe2000ScreeningAnalysis.(EERE‐2006‐STD‐0098‐0015)–Heating:UECsestimatedusingCommercialBuildingEnergyConsumptionSurvey(CBECS)dataforairsourceheatpumps(energyconsumptionpersquarefoot,scaledindirectproportiontoCOP).–Toaccountforimprovementsinbuildingshellcharacteristics,DOEadjustedtheUECsbasedondatafromtheNationalEnergyModelingSystem(NEMS).•Toincorporatevariability,DOEdevelopeddistributionsofequipmentbybuildingtypeandCensusDivision,andforeachcombination,scaledthenationalUECbytheFLEOHestimatefromthe2000ScreeningAnalysis.31Life‐CycleCost(LCC)andPaybackPeriod(PBP)AnalysisPurpose•Provideaneconomicevaluationfromtheconsumer’sperspective.•Life‐CycleCost(LCC)isthetotalconsumercostoverthelifeoftheequipment.•PaybackPeriod(PBP)isthetimerequiredtorecovertheincreasedpurchasepriceofmoreenergy‐efficientequipmentthroughreducedoperatingcosts.Method•UtilizeaMonteCarlosimulation,consistingof10,000iterationsthatselectfrominputscharacterizedbyprobabilitydistributions(i.e.,buildingtype,CensusDivision,lifetime)32LCCandPBPAnalysis:TotalInstalledCost•TotalInstalledCostisthesumofequipmentpriceandinstallationcost.•EquipmentpriceprovidedbyMarkupsAnalysis.–Constantrealpricesusedtoprojectfutureequipmentprices.•Relevantproducerpriceindex(PPI)serieshadnocleartrendsinrecentyears.•Installationcostsrepresentthelaborandmaterialsnecessarytoinstalltheequipment.–CostsbasedonRSMeansforappropriateequipment.–Installationcostsareassumedtoincreaseproportionallywithequipmentweight,whichincreaseswithefficiencylevel.Therefore,installationcostsareassumedtovarybyefficiencylevel.33LCCandPBPAnalysis:AnnualOperatingCosts•AnnualEnergyCostsarecalculatedbymultiplyingannualenergyusebyelectricityprice.–ElectricitypricesbyCensusDivisionaretakenfromtariffdatathathavebeenprocessedintocommercialbuildingmarginalandaverageprices.–DOEusedtheAnnualEnergyOutlook(AEO)2014toprojectfutureenergypricesforeachCensusDivision.•Maintenancecostsrepresentthelaborandmaterialsnecessarytomaintaintheequipment.CostsarebasedonRSMeansanddonotincreasewiththeefficiencyoftheequipment.•Repaircostsareassociatedwithrepairingorreplacingcomponentsthathavefailed.CostsarebasedonRSMeans,andthematerialsportionscaleswithMPC.–DOEannualizedthepresentvalueoftherepaircost,assumedtotakeplaceinyear10,overthelifetimeoftheequipment.•Forbothmaintenanceandrepair costs,datawerenotavailablespecifictoWSHP,soDOEuseddataforair‐to‐airheatpumps,whichitbelievesisalsorepresentativeforWSHP.34LCCandPBPAnalysis:Lifetime&DiscountRates•Lifetimeisdefinedastheagewhenequipmentisretiredfromservice.–DOEusedasurvivalfunctionintheformofaWeibulldistributiontoestimateproductlifetime(basedon2011DFRforresidentialCAC;EERE‐2011‐BT‐STD‐011‐0012)–MedianvaluesfromtheWeibulldistributions:–3‐phaseCACandWSHP:17.7years–3‐phaseCHP:14.6years•DiscountRatesareusedtoconvertstreamsofannualoperatingexpensestotheyearofpurchase(i.e.,2020).–Estimatedastheweightedaveragecostofcapitalfortypesoffirmsonwhosepremisetheequipmentislocated.–3‐phaseCACandCHP:SmallOfficeandSmallRetail–WSHP:Office,Public,Lodging,PropertyOwners,andMedicalServices–UsedDamodaranOnlineforinformationaboutcompanydebtandequityfinancing.35LCCandPBPAnalysis:BaseCaseEfficiency•Base‐caseefficiencydistributionsdefinethepercentageofproductsbeingpurchasedatvariousefficiencylevels.•DOEcreatedbase‐caseefficiencydistributionsbasedonmodelavailabilityintheAHRIcertifieddirectory.•DOEhasestimatedabase‐caseefficiencytrendof1SEERevery35yearsandappliedthistrendtoestimatethebase‐caseefficiencydistributioninthecomplianceyear.36RequestforCommentIssueBox:DOErequestscomments,information,anddataontheequipmentlifetimesdevelopedfor3‐phaseCACandCHPandWSHPequipment.Specifically,anyinformationthatwouldindicatewhethertheretirementfunctionsyieldingmedianlifetimesof17.7yearsfor3‐phaseCACandWSHPand14.63yearsfor3‐phaseCHParereasonable.IssueBox:DOErequestscommentsontheuseofRSMeanscostdatatodevelopmaintenance,repair,andinstallationcostsfor3‐phaseair‐cooledair‐conditioningandheatingequipmentandwater‐sourceheatpumps.Ifnotappropriate,DOErequestsinformationanddatathatcanbeusedtoestimatethesecosts.37LCC andPBPAnalysis:3‐phaseCACSinglePackageResultsEfficiencyLevelSEERAverageCosts2013$AverageSavingsPercentofcustomerswithNewCostSimplePaybackyearsInstalledCostFirstYear’sOperatingCostLifetimeOperatingCostLCCASHRAEBaseline14.0 $4,731$761$7,408$12,139N/A N/A N/AEL115.0 $5,036$747$7,275$12,311($89) 49% 47EL216.0 $5,343$742$7,224$12,567($297) 81% 50EL317.0 $5,642$746$7,262$12,904($596) 89% 80EL418.0 $5,944$750$7,300$13,244($913) 93% 128EL519.0 $6,308$755$7,350$13,659($1,326) 100% 26138PublicMeetingTopics1IntroductionandOverview;DeterminationofScope2TestProcedures3MarketAssessment;Engineering4Markups;EnergyUse;Life‐CycleCost&PaybackPeriodAnalysis5Shipments;NationalImpactAnalysis6EmissionsandUtilityImpactAnalyses7ClosingRemarks39ShipmentsAnalysisPurpose•Toestimateshipmentsoverthe30‐yearanalysisperiod.•ShipmentsareinputstoNationalImpactAnalysis.Method•Useavailablesourcesofinitialshipmentsestimatesforeachequipmentclass.•ProjectshipmentsusingU.S.CensusdataandotherindicatorvariablessuchasAEOfloorspaceforecasts.40ShipmentsInputsandMethodology:3‐PhaseCAC/CHP•DOEstartedwith1999shipmentsestimatesforthree‐phaseCACfromthe2000ScreeningAnalysis.•DOEusedCensusdatafrom1999to2010(acombinationofsingle‐phaseandthree‐phaseshipments)asatrendfromwhichtoextrapolate19993‐phaseshipmentsthrough2010.•After2010,DOEreliedonAHRIshipmentsdataandAEO2014projectionsofcommercialfloorspacetoprojectfutureshipments.–Thisresultsinanannualgrowthrateof1%.41ShipmentsInputsandMethodology:WSHP•U.S.Censusdata:1980,1983‐1994,1997‐2006,2008‐2010–DOEutilizedthetrendfrom1999‐2010toprojectshipmentspast2010.•DOEallocatedtotalWSHPshipmentsbetweenequipmentcapacitiesusingdataprovidedbyAHRIin1999andpublishedinthe2000ScreeningAnalysis.(EERE‐2006‐STD‐0098‐0015)EquipmentClass 1999Shipments Percent<17,000Btu/h41,00031%≥17,000‐<65,000Btu/h86,00065%≥65,000‐135,000Btu/h5,0004%y=4135.8x‐8E+06R2=0.54830500001000001500002000002500001985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 201542ProjectedShipments3-phase CAC and CHPWSHPIssueBox:Wouldshipmentsofsmallair‐cooledthree‐phaseairconditionersandheatpumpequipmentlessthan65,000Btu/horwater‐sourceheatpumpequipmentchangeatmore‐stringentstandardlevels?43NationalImpactAnalysisPurpose–Determinetheprojectednationalenergysavingsandcustomernationalnetpresentvalueassociatedwithpotentialamendedenergyconservationstandards.Method–Developannualseriesofnationalenergyandeconomicimpacts.–Usetheshipmentsmodeltoestimatethetotalstockofequipmentinserviceeachyear.–Aggregatethecostsandenergyuseperunitinanygivenyear.–ReportestimatesforeconomicimpactaschangeinconsumerNationalNetPresentValue(NPV)(inconstantyeardollars).–Accountforthetime‐valueofmoneythroughdefineddiscountrates.44ShipmentsModelNationalEnergySavingsNationalEconomicImpactsLCCAnalysisResults andOther InputsNationalEnergy Savings(Quads)NationalNet Present Value(NPV)(2013 US $, billion)NationalImpactAnalysis:Process•Nationalenergysavingscalculatedfor30yearsofequipmentshipmentsovertheperiod:–2017– 2046*for3‐PhaseCACexceptsplit‐systemAC,–2019– 2048forsplit‐systemAC,and–2016– 2045*forWSHP.*ForefficiencylevelshigherthanASHRAE,energysavingsdonotbeginaccruinguntil2020.•NPVcalculatedforequipmentshippedovertheperiod:–2020– 2046*for3‐PhaseCACexceptsplit‐systemAC,–2019– 2048forsplit‐systemAC,and–2020– 2045*forWSHP.*EconomicsnotcalculatedfortheASHRAElevel.45NationalImpactAnalysis:InputsInput DescriptionTotalInstalledCost Weighted‐averageper‐unitvaluesasafunctionofefficiencyleveltakenfromtheLCCanalysis.RepairandMaintenanceCostsMaintenancecoststakenfromtheLCCanalysis;donotvaryasafunctionofefficiencylevel.RepaircoststakenfromtheLCCanalysis;estimatedtovarywithefficiency.AnnualEnergyUse Annualweighted‐averageper‐unitvaluesasafunctionofefficiencyleveltakenfromLCCanalysis.Base‐CaseEfficiencies Shipments‐weightedefficienciesdeterminedforthecomplianceyear.Basedonbase‐caseefficiency distributionfromLCCanalysis.Estimatedgrowthrateof1EERevery35years.Standards‐CaseProjectedEfficienciesRoll‐upscenario forthecomplianceyear,followedbysamerateofgrowthinefficiencyasusedinthebasecase.EnergyPrices ProjectedenergypricesfromEIAAEO2014forecasts(to2040)andextrapolationto2098.FullFuelCycle Multiplierto convertsiteenergytofull‐fuel‐cycleenergy.DiscountRate 7 percentand3percentrealfromOMB’sRegulatoryAnalysisGuidelineA‐4.PresentYear Futureexpensesarediscountedtotheyear2014.46RequestforCommentIssueBox:Isthereareboundeffectinsmallair‐cooledthree‐phaseairconditionerandheatpumpequipmentlessthan65,000Btu/horwater‐sourceheatpumpenergyuseasaresultofimprovementsintheefficiencyofsuchunits?IssueBox:Theuseoftheprojectedbase‐caseefficiencytrendofanincreaseof1SEERorEERevery35yearsforsmallair‐cooledthree‐phaseairconditionerandheatpumpequipmentlessthan65,000Btu/handwater‐sourceheatpumpequipment.47NationalImpactAnalysis:ResultsEquipmentClassASHRAE/EL0EL1 EL2 EL3 EL4 EL53‐PhaseCACandCHPNationalEnergySavings– FFC(Quads)0.08 0.16 0.30 0.38 0.44 0.47NationalNPVat3%realdiscountrate(Billion$2013)(0.07)* (0.58) (1.64) (3.11) (4.63) (5.63)NationalNPVat7%realdiscountrate(Billion$2013)(0.04)* (0.36) (0.94) (1.69) (2.47) (3.02)WSHPNationalEnergySavings– FFC(Quads)‐** 0.03 0.30 0.56 0.76 1.03NationalNPVat3%realdiscountrate(Billion$2013)N/A 0.03 0.19 (0.04) (0.38) (0.91)NationalNPVat7%realdiscountrate(Billion$2013)N/A 0.01 (0.04) (0.27) (0.53) (0.93)Note:ResultsforalllevelsaboveASHRAEarecomparedtotheASHRAEBaseline.*EconomicanalysisatASHRAE/EL0wasonlyconductedforsplit–systemAC.**Therearenosavingsforthislevelbecausethereisnomarketshareprojectedbelowthislevelinthebasecase.48PublicMeetingTopics1IntroductionandOverview;DeterminationofScope2TestProcedures3MarketAssessment;Engineering4Markups;EnergyUse;Life‐CycleCost&PaybackPeriodAnalysis5Shipments;NationalImpactAnalysis6EmissionsandUtilityImpactAnalyses7ClosingRemarks49EmissionsImpactAnalysisPurpose•Toestimatetheemissionsreductionsresultingfromamendedenergyconservationstandards.–Carbondioxide(CO2),sulfurdioxide(SO2),nitrogenoxides(NOX),nitrousoxide(N2O),methane(CH4),mercury(Hg).–Includesestimatingfull‐fuel‐cycleemissions;bothpowerplantemissionsand“upstream”emissions;Includesfugitivemethaneemissions.Method•NationalImpactAnalysisprovidesanannualtime‐seriesofenergysavingsovertheanalysisperiod.•DOEusedoutputfromAEO2014toderiveemissionsfactorsspecifictotypicalcommercialcoolingpowerload.50•DOEusedthemostcurrentSocialCostofCarbon(SCC)valuesdevelopedbyaninteragencyprocess.–SCCisintendedtobeamonetarymeasureoftheincrementaldamageresultingfromgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,including,butnotlimitedto,agriculturalproductivityloss,humanhealtheffects,propertydamagefromrisingsealevels,andchangesintheecosystem.•Themostrecent(2013)U.S.governmentinteragencyestimatesoftheSCCforemissionsin2015,permetrictonavoided(in2013$):–$12.0(averagevaluefromdistributionwitha5%discountrate)–$40.5(averagevaluefromdistributionwitha3%discountrate)–$62.4(averagevaluefromdistributionwitha2.5%discountrate)–$119(95th‐percentilevaluefromdistributionwitha3%discountrate)•TheSCCinconstantdollarsincreasesovertime.•DOEalsomonetizestheNOxemissionsreductionsresultingfromamendedstandards.–Estimatesofmonetaryvaluerangefrom$476to$4,893pershortton.–DOEcalculatedmonetarybenefitsusingamediumvalueof$2,684pershortton.EmissionsMonetization51UtilityImpactAnalysisPurpose•Toestimatethechangesinelectricinstalledcapacityandgenerationthatresultfromamendedenergyconservationstandards(ascomparedtothebasecase).Method•DOEusescasespublishedfromtheNationalEnergyModelingSystem(NEMS)thatincorporateefficiency‐relatedpoliciestoestimatethemarginalimpactsofreducedenergydemandontheutilitysector.•Theoutputofthisanalysisisasetoftime‐dependentcoefficientsthatcapturethechangeinelectricitygenerationandinstalledcapacitybyplanttypeduetoaunitreductionindemandforthespecificenduse.52PublicMeetingTopics1IntroductionandOverview;DeterminationofScope2TestProcedures3MarketAssessment;Engineering4Markups;EnergyUse;Life‐CycleCost&PaybackPeriodAnalysis5Shipments;NationalImpactAnalysis6EmissionsandUtilityImpactAnalyses7ClosingRemarks53ClosingRemarks54HowtoSubmitWrittenComments•Inallcorrespondence,pleaserefertotheASHRAErulemakingby:– NOPRonEnergyConservationStandardsandTestProceduresforASHRAEStandard90.1Equipment,– DocketNumberEERE‐2014‐BT‐STD‐0015,and– RegulatoryIdentificationNumber(RIN)1904‐AD23.•Email:ComHeatingACWHEquip2014STD0015@ee.doe.gov•Commentperiodcloses:March24,2015,11:59PMESTPostal:Courier:Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesOffice,MailstopEE‐5B1000IndependenceAvenue,SWWashington,DC20585‐0121Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesOffice,Suite600950L’EnfantPlaza,SWWashington,DC20024Tel:(202)586‐2945