# Climate Change and the

Southeast Presentation to the Jamaica National Environment and Planning

Agency December 1, 2014 Dr. Kenneth Mitchell U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Atlanta, GA

## • Climate Change and Health 

# in the Southeast
• EPA Actions on Climate Change
• EPA’s Clean Power Plan 

# Outline

www.epa.gov/climatechange and www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan

### • Wide range of natural system types (coral reefs to mountains)
• H ome to more than 80 million, with large populations in coastal areas


### • Large manufacturing and tourism industry (LA and FL hosted > 115M visitors in 2012)
• Major producer of agricultural products and seafood
• Home to major ports
• Major energy producer of coal, crude oil, and natural gas, and is the highest energy user
• Large vulnerable populations (poor, elderly, and the young) 3 

# The Southeast ....

### • Sea level rise, increased hurricane intensity, and storm surge
• Higher temperatures


### • I ncreases in extreme precipitation, flooding
• Impacts on the growth and productivity of crops and forests in the region
• Air quality, allergens
• Water availability and quality
• Vector borne diseases 4 

# Some potential climate change considerations...

This map summarizes the number of times each state has been affected by weather and climate events over the past 30 years that have resulted in more than a billion dollars in damages. The Southeast has been affected by more billion -dollar disasters than any other region. The primary disaster type for coastal states such as Florida is hurricanes, while interior and northern states in the region also experience sizeable numbers of tornadoes and winter storms. For a list of events and the affected states, see: http://

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events . (Figure source: NOAA NCDC).

### • There is a close connection between climate and air quality
• If emissions of air pollutants remain fixed at today's levels until 2050, warming from climate change alone could increase the number of Red Ozone Alert Days (air is unhealthy for everyone) by 68% in the 50 largest eastern U.S. cities
• Impacts of climate change on PM2.5 are less certain • I ncreases in precipitation could have a beneficial effect • Stagnant air episodes, wind patterns, emissions from vegetation and the chemistry of atmospheric pollutants will likely affect particulate matter levels • PM affected by changes in wildfires, which are expected to become more frequent and intense in a warmer climate 5 

# Climate Change and Air Pollution

### • Climate change may affect allergies 

### and respiratory health • The spring pollen season is already occurring earlier in the United States due to climate change 

### • The length of the season may also have increased • In addition, climate change may facilitate the spread of ragweed, an invasive plant with very allergenic 

### pollen • Tests on ragweed show that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures would increase the amount and timing of ragweed pollen 

### production 6 

# Allergens

# U.S. GHG Pollution

7

# EPA Actions to Reduce Carbon Pollution

• Building a 21 st 

## century transportation sector • Cutting energy waste in homes, businesses, and factories • Reducing methane and HFCs • Preparing the U.S. for the impacts of climate change • Helping lead international efforts to 

## address global climate change • Reducing carbon pollution from power plants (e.g., EPA’s “Clean Power Plan”)
8

### President’s June 2013 Directive to EPA: 

### Develop carbon pollution standards, regulations or guidelines, as appropriate, for: 1. New power plants • Proposed January 8, 2014 2. Modified and reconstructed power plants • Proposed June 2014 • Final June 2015 3. Existing power plants • Proposed Guidelines June 2014 • Final Guidelines June 2015 • State Plans due June 2016 

## GHG NSPS Requirements for Fossil Fuel - Fired Power Plants

http://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan 15

## • EPA conducted a robust pre- proposal stakeholder engagement process o Participated in meetings with over 300 utility, consumer, labor and environmental groups since June 2013 o Held 11 public listening sessions around the country  3,300 people attended  More than 1,600 people offered oral statements


## • Reached out to all 50 states o Some states noted their programs to address carbon evolved because of:  The need to address carbon pollution  Electric system that is dynamic, and in the midst of market changes  Modernizing the power sector is good for the economy 

## • Common themes included reliability, flexibility, affordability, time for plans and implementation 10 

# Early Outreach Informed This Proposal

### This proposal will:
• Reduce carbon pollution from existing power plants, for which there are currently no national limits
• Maintain an affordable, reliable energy system and will help m ove us toward a cleaner, more stable environment for future generations • By 2030, reduce nationwide carbon dioxide emissions, from the power sector by approximately 30% from 2005 levels, with significant reductions to begin by 2020
• Cut hundreds of thousands of tons of harmful particle pollution, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides as a co- benefit • Proposal will avoid an estimated 2,700 to 6,600 premature deaths and 140,000 to 150,000 asthma attacks in 2030 • Provide important health protections to the most vulnerable, such as children and older Americans • Lead to health and climate benefits worth an estimated $55 billion to $93 billion in 2030 • From soot and smog reductions alone, for every dollar invested through the Clean Power Plan - - American families will see up to $7 in health benefits 11 

## Summary - 111(d) Existing Power Plant Proposal

### • Build on actions states, cities and businesses across the country are already 

### taking to address the risks of climate change
• Spur investment in cleaner and more efficient technologies, creating jobs and driving innovation


### • Electricity bills down 8% in 2030
• Require a reasonable emission reduction glidepath starting in 2020
• Provide a flexible timeline — up to 15 years from guideline issuance — for all emission reduction measures to be fully implemented in 2030 o Recognizing that investments in infrastructure can take time to put in place and o Avoiding stranded assets 

### • Provide an array of tools states can use to formulate approvable plans 

## .



## Summary - 111(d) Existing Power Plant Proposal

12

http://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan

## After Proposal, Coal & Natural Gas Remain Leading Sources



## of Electricity Generation

13 Each more than 30% of projected generation in 2030 

## Coal 31% Natural Gas 32% Other Fuel 37%

# EPA Establishes a Goal for Every State

• EPA analyzed the practical and affordable strategies that states and utilities are already using to lower carbon pollution from the power sector
• Proposed goals are based on a consistent national formula, calculated with state and regional specific information

• Each state goal is expressed as a rate (pounds of CO 2 per MWh ) – a statewide number for the future carbon intensity of covered existing fossil -fuel -fired power plants in a state
• The state rate goal is calculated to account for the mix of power sources in each state and the application of four “building blocks” that make up the best system of emission reduction

• States will need to meet an interim goal and a final goal 14Building Block Strategy EPA Used to Calculate the State Goal Maximum Flexibility: Examples of State Compliance Measures 1. Make fossil fuel -fired power plants more efficient Efficiency Improvements • Efficiency improvements • Co-firing or switching to natural gas • Coal retirements • Retrofit carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) 2. Use lower-emitting power sources more Dispatch changes to existing natural gas combined cycle (CC) • Dispatch changes to existing natural gas CC 3. Build more zero/lowemitting energy sources Renewable Energy Certain Nuclear • New NGCC • Renewables • Nuclear (new and up rate) • New coal with CCS 4. Use electricity more efficiently Demand -side energy efficiency programs • Demand -side energy efficiency programs • Transmission efficiency improvements • Energy storage 15

# Flexibilities Available To States

• Timing o Up to 15 -year window in which to plan for and achieve reductions in carbon pollution o U p to two or three years to submit final plans
• Form of goal o States can use either a rate- based or mass- based goal • Single or multi-state plans o States can collaborate and develop plans on a multi -state basis • Selection of measures o States will choose how to meet the goal through whatever collection of measures reflects its particular circumstances and policy objectives o State measures may impact and, in fact may be explicitly designed to reduce, CO 2 emissions from utilities on a regional basis o EPA would support building off existing reduction programs

16 http://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan

# Actions since the proposal

• October 28, 2014 - EPA issued a supplemental proposal to its proposed CPP that sets area -specific goals for Indian country and territories

• October 28, 2014 - EPA issued a NODA related to the proposed CPP

• November 6, 2014 – EPA issued a TSD on converting rate-to- mass

• November 19, 2014 – EPA issued second draft of Framework for Assessing Biogenic Carbon Dioxide for Stationary Sources and associated memo from Janet McCabe 17

# Next Steps
• The proposed rule, as well as information about how to comment and supporting technical information, are available 

## online at: http://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan

• EPA held 4 public hearings the week of July 28th 

## in Denver , Atlanta , Pittsburgh and Washington, D.C. – over 2,700 people 

## attended
• Comments are due December 1, 2014
• Comments on the proposal should be identified by Docket ID Number: EPA- HQ-OAR-2013-0602 18

# Mobile Source GHG/CAFE Standards

• Final rule (published 5/7/10) - Passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium -duty passenger vehicles, model years 2012 through 2016 • Average 250 grams CO 2 per mile, 35.5 mpg in model year 2016 • Final rule (published 9/15/11) - Medium - and heavy-duty engines and vehicles, model years 2014 through 2018 • Estimated combined standards will reduce CO 2 emissions by about 270 million metric tons and save about 530 million barrels of oil over the life of vehicles built for the 2014 to 2018 model years, providing $49 billion in net program benefits • Final rule (issued 8/28/2012) – Extends passenger vehicle program to model year 2017 through 2025 • Average163 grams CO 2 per mile, 54.5 mpg in model year 2025 http://epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm#1 - 1 21

# Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2)

• Revision to current RFS (RFS1) 

### as required by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA)

• Significant increase in renewable 

### fuels to displace petroleum consumption (36 billion gallons by 2022)

• Requires GHG lifecycle analysis

• Original Rule published 3/26/10 Lifecycle GHG Thresholds Specified in EISA (percent reduction from 2005 baseline for

gasoline and diesel) Renewable fuel * 20% Advanced biofuel 50% Biomass-based diesel 50% Cellulosic biofuel 60% *The 20% criterion generally applies to renewable fuel from new facilities that commenced construction after December 19, 2007 . http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/index.htm 22

# OAP Partnership Programs

21

# Recent Science Assessments/Products

22 • National Climate Assessment, 2014 • 3 rd assessment as required under Global Change Research Act of 1990 • Assesses science of climate change and impacts across the U.S., now and throughout this century • Over past 50 years much of U.S. has seen increase in excessively high temperatures, more heavy downpours, and more severe drought in some regions • Climate change threatens human health and well - being in many ways • http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
• Climate Change Indicators in the U.S., 2014 • EPA product, 3 rd edition • Presents 30 indicators of observed changes focused on U.S. • Indicators grouped into Greenhouse Gases, Weather & Climate, Oceans, Snow & Ice, Health & Society, Ecosystems • http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/
• Synthesis Report of IPCC 5 th Assessment, 2014 • Final installment of 5 th assessment recently approved • Synthesis largely summarizes previous results from Working Group reports on science, impacts, adaptation, and mitigation • http://ipcc.ch/

# Climate Change Adaptation

23 

### • October 31, 2014 - The White House released the final versions of Climate Change Adaptation Plans produced by federal departments and agencies, 

### including EPA
• EPA developed a Climate Change Adaptation Plan and 17 Climate Change Adaptation Implementation Plans produced by the Program and Regional Offices • Describes how the Agency will integrate considerations of climate change into its programs, policies, rules and operations to ensure they are effective even as the climate changes

www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/fed - programs.html

# Questions?

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