Climate Change and the 

Southeast

Presentation to the 

Jamaica National Environment and Planning 

Agency

December 1, 2014

Dr. Kenneth Mitchell

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Atlanta, GA
• Climate Change and Health 

in the Southeast

• EPA Actions on Climate 

Change

• EPA’s Clean Power Plan

Outline

www.epa.gov/climatechange and www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan
• Wide range of natural system types (coral reefs to mountains)

• Home to more than 80 million, with large populations in coastal areas

• Large manufacturing and tourism industry (LA and FL hosted > 115M 

visitors in 2012)

• Major producer of agricultural 

products and seafood

• Home to major ports

• Major energy producer of coal, 

crude oil, and natural gas, and 

is the highest energy user 

• Large vulnerable populations 

(poor, elderly, and the young)

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The Southeast ....
• Sea level rise, increased hurricane 

intensity, and storm surge

• Higher temperatures

• Increases in extreme precipitation, 

flooding

• Impacts on the growth and productivity 

of crops and forests in the region

• Air quality, allergens 

• Water availability and quality

• Vector borne diseases

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Some potential climate change considerations...

This map summarizes the number of times each state has 

been affected by weather and climate events over the 

past 30 years that have resulted in more than a billion 

dollars in damages. The Southeast has been affected by 

more billion-dollar disasters than any other region. The 

primary disaster type for coastal states such as Florida is 

hurricanes, while interior and northern states in the region 

also experience sizeable numbers of tornadoes and 

winter storms. For a list of events and the affected states, 

see: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events. (Figure 

source: NOAA NCDC).
• There is a close connection between climate and air quality

• If emissions of air pollutants remain fixed at today's levels until 

2050, warming from climate change alone could increase the 

number of Red Ozone Alert Days (air is unhealthy for everyone) by 

68% in the 50 largest eastern U.S. cities

• Impacts of climate change on PM2.5 

are less certain

• Increases in precipitation could have a 

beneficial effect

• Stagnant air episodes, wind patterns, 

emissions from vegetation and the 

chemistry of atmospheric pollutants 

will likely affect particulate matter levels

• PM affected by changes in wildfires, which 

are expected to become more frequent and 

intense in a warmer climate

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Climate Change and Air Pollution
• Climate change may affect allergies 

and respiratory health

• The spring pollen season is already 

occurring earlier in the United States 

due to climate change

• The length of the season may also 

have increased

• In addition, climate change may 

facilitate the spread of ragweed, an 

invasive plant with very allergenic 

pollen • Tests on ragweed show that increasing 

carbon dioxide concentrations and 

temperatures would increase the 

amount and timing of ragweed pollen 

production

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Allergens
U.S. GHG Pollution

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EPA Actions to Reduce Carbon Pollution

• Building a 21st century transportation 

sector

• Cutting energy waste in homes, 

businesses, and factories

• Reducing methane and HFCs

• Preparing the U.S. for the impacts of 

climate change

• Helping lead international efforts to 

address global climate change

• Reducing carbon pollution from power 

plants (e.g., EPA’s “Clean Power Plan”)

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President’s June 2013 Directive to EPA:

Develop carbon pollution standards, regulations or guidelines, as 

appropriate, for:

1. New power plants

• Proposed January 8, 2014

2. Modified and reconstructed power plants

• Proposed June 2014

• Final June 2015

3. Existing power plants

• Proposed Guidelines June 2014

• Final Guidelines June 2015

• State Plans due June 2016

GHG NSPS Requirements for Fossil Fuel-Fired Power Plants

http://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan

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• EPA conducted a robust pre-proposal stakeholder engagement process

oParticipated in meetings with over 300 utility, consumer, labor 

and environmental groups since June 2013

oHeld 11 public listening sessions around the country

3,300 people attended

More than 1,600 people offered oral statements

• Reached out to all 50 states

o Some states noted their programs to address 

carbon evolved because of:

The need to address carbon pollution

Electric system that is dynamic, and in 

the midst of market changes

Modernizing the power sector is good 

for the economy

• Common themes included reliability, flexibility, affordability, time for 

plans and implementation

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Early Outreach Informed This Proposal
This proposal will: 

• Reduce carbon pollution from existing power plants, for which there are currently no 

national limits

• Maintain an affordable, reliable energy system and will help move us toward a cleaner, 

more stable environment for future generations

• By 2030, reduce nationwide carbon dioxide emissions, from the power sector by 

approximately 30% from 2005 levels, with significant reductions to begin by 2020

• Cut hundreds of thousands of tons of harmful particle pollution, sulfur dioxide and 

nitrogen oxides as a co-benefit

• Proposal will avoid an estimated 2,700 to 6,600 premature deaths and 140,000 to 150,000 asthma 

attacks in 2030

• Provide important health protections to the most vulnerable, such as children and older 

Americans

• Lead to health and climate benefits worth an estimated $55 billion to $93 billion in 

2030

• From soot and smog reductions alone, for every dollar invested through the Clean 

Power Plan - - American families will see up to $7 in health benefits 

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Summary - 111(d) Existing Power Plant Proposal
• Build on actions states, cities and businesses across the country are already 

taking to address the risks of climate change

• Spur investment in cleaner and more efficient technologies, creating jobs and 

driving innovation

• Electricity bills down 8% in 2030

• Require a reasonable emission reduction glidepath starting in 2020

• Provide a flexible timeline—up to 15 years from guideline issuance—for all 

emission reduction measures to be fully implemented in 2030

o Recognizing that investments in infrastructure can take time to put in place and 

o Avoiding stranded assets

• Provide an array of tools states can use to formulate approvable plans.

Summary - 111(d) Existing Power Plant Proposal

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http://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan
After Proposal, Coal & Natural Gas Remain Leading Sources 

of Electricity Generation

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Each more than 30% of projected generation in 2030

Coal

31%

Natural Gas

32%

Other Fuel

37%
EPA Establishes a Goal for Every State

• EPA analyzed the practical and affordable strategies that states and utilities are already 

using to lower carbon pollution from the power sector 

• Proposed goals are based on a consistent national formula, calculated with state and 

regional specific information 

• Each state goal is expressed as a rate (pounds of CO2 per MWh) – a statewide number 

for the future carbon intensity of covered existing fossil-fuel-fired power plants in a 

state

• The state rate goal is calculated to account for 

the mix of power sources in each state and the 

application of four “building blocks” that make 

up the best system of emission reduction

• States will need to meet an interim goal and 

a final goal

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Building Block Strategy EPA Used to 

Calculate the State Goal

Maximum Flexibility:

Examples of State 

Compliance Measures

1. Make fossil fuel-fired

power plants more 

efficient

Efficiency Improvements • Efficiency improvements

• Co-firing or switching to 

natural gas

• Coal retirements

• Retrofit carbon capture and 

sequestration (CCS)

2. Use lower-emitting power 

sources more

Dispatch changes to 

existing natural gas 

combined cycle (CC)

• Dispatch changes to existing 

natural gas CC

3. Build more zero/lowemitting energy sourcesRenewable Energy

Certain Nuclear

• New NGCC

• Renewables

• Nuclear (new and up rate)

• New coal with CCS

4. Use electricity more 

efficiently

Demand-side energy 

efficiency programs

• Demand-side energy 

efficiency programs

• Transmission efficiency 

improvements

• Energy storage

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Flexibilities Available To States

• Timing

o Up to 15-year window in which to plan for and achieve reductions in carbon pollution 

o Up to two or three years to submit final plans 

• Form of goal

o States can use either a rate-based or mass-based goal

• Single or multi-state plans

o States can collaborate and develop plans on a multi-state basis

• Selection of measures 

o States will choose how to meet the goal through whatever

collection of measures reflects its particular circumstances 

and policy objectives

o State measures may impact and, in fact may be explicitly 

designed to reduce, CO2 emissions from utilities on a regional 

basis

o EPA would support building off existing reduction programs 

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http://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan
Actions since the proposal

• October 28, 2014 - EPA issued a supplemental proposal to its 

proposed CPP that sets area-specific goals for Indian country and 

territories

• October 28, 2014 - EPA issued a NODA

related to the proposed CPP

• November 6, 2014 – EPA issued a TSD

on converting rate-to-mass

• November 19, 2014 – EPA issued second draft 

of Framework for Assessing Biogenic Carbon Dioxide

for Stationary Sources and associated memo from Janet McCabe

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Next Steps

• The proposed rule, as well as information about how to 

comment and supporting technical information, are available 

online at: http://www.epa.gov/cleanpowerplan

• EPA held 4 public hearings the week of July 28th in Denver, 

Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Washington, D.C. – over 2,700 people 

attended

• Comments are due December 1, 2014

• Comments on the proposal should be identified by Docket ID 

Number: 

EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602

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Mobile Source GHG/CAFE Standards

• Final rule (published 5/7/10) - Passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty 

passenger vehicles, model years 2012 through 2016

• Average 250 grams CO2 per mile, 35.5 mpg in model year 2016

• Final rule (published 9/15/11) - Medium- and heavy-duty engines and vehicles, 

model years 2014 through 2018

• Estimated combined standards will reduce CO2 emissions by about 270 million metric tons 

and save about 530 million barrels of oil over the life of vehicles built for the 2014 to 2018 

model years, providing $49 billion in net program benefits

• Final rule (issued 8/28/2012) –

Extends passenger vehicle program 

to model year 2017 through 2025

• Average163 grams CO2 per mile, 

54.5 mpg in model year 2025

http://epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm#1-1

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Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2)

• Revision to current RFS (RFS1) 

as required by the Energy 

Independence and Security Act 

(EISA)

• Significant increase in renewable 

fuels

to displace petroleum consumption 

(36 billion gallons by 2022)

• Requires GHG lifecycle analysis

• Original Rule published 3/26/10

Lifecycle GHG Thresholds Specified in EISA

(percent reduction from 2005 baseline for 

gasoline and diesel)

Renewable fuel* 20%

Advanced biofuel 50%

Biomass-based 

diesel 50%

Cellulosic biofuel 60%

*The 20% criterion generally applies to renewable 

fuel from new facilities that commenced construction 

after December 19, 2007.

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/index.htm

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OAP Partnership Programs

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Recent Science Assessments/Products

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• National Climate Assessment, 2014

• 3

rd assessment as required under Global Change Research 

Act of 1990

• Assesses science of climate change and impacts across the 

U.S., now and throughout this century

• Over past 50 years much of U.S. has seen increase in 

excessively high temperatures, more heavy downpours, and 

more severe drought in some regions

• Climate change threatens human health and well-being in 

many ways

• http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

• Climate Change Indicators in 

the U.S., 2014

• EPA product, 3rd edition

• Presents 30 indicators of observed changes focused on U.S. 

• Indicators grouped into Greenhouse Gases, Weather & Climate, 

Oceans, Snow & Ice, Health & Society, Ecosystems

• http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/

• Synthesis Report of IPCC 5th Assessment, 2014

• Final installment of 5th assessment recently approved

• Synthesis largely summarizes previous results from Working 

Group reports on science, impacts, adaptation, and mitigation

• http://ipcc.ch/
Climate Change Adaptation

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• October 31, 2014 - The White House released the final versions of Climate 

Change Adaptation Plans produced by federal departments and agencies, 

including EPA

• EPA developed a Climate Change Adaptation Plan and 17 Climate Change 

Adaptation Implementation Plans produced by the Program and Regional 

Offices

• Describes how the Agency will integrate considerations of climate change into its programs, 

policies, rules and operations to ensure they are effective even as the climate changes

www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/fed-programs.html
Questions?

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