10A-i APPENDIX 11A. USER INSTRUCT IONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

11A.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 11A-1 11A.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ..................................................................... 11A-1 11A.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.............................................................................. 11A-8

11A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS................................................................................... 11A-11 11A.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ................................................................... 11A-11 11A.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps............................................................................ 11A-1211A-1 APPENDIX 11A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

11A.1 INTRODUCTION

The results obtained for the shipments analys is and the national impact analysis (NIA) can be examined and reproduced using the Micr osoft Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies website at: http://www.eere.energy.gov/build ings/appliance_standards/

.

There are two NIA spreadsheets: one spread sheet for general service fluorescent lamps (GSFL), one incandescent reflector lamps (IRL) . The two spreadsheets posted on the DOE website represent the latest versions and ha ve been tested with Microsoft Excel 2003.

To execute the spreadsheet requires Micr osoft Excel 2003 or a later version. The NIA spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast th e national energy savings (NES) (i.e., the change in national energy use from the base to standards cases), and the net present value (NPV) due to an energy conservation standard. The energy us e and associated costs for a given candidate standard level (CSL) are determined first by calc ulating the shipments and then calculating the energy use and costs for all products shipped und er that CSL. The differences between the standards and base cases can then be compar ed and the overall NES and NPV determined.

11A.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

The NIA spreadsheet that models commercial sector GSFL consists of the following

worksheets:

Input and Summary Contains user input selecti ons under “User Inputs” and a summary table of the cumulative NES and NPV for 4-foot medium bipin sockets, 8-foot single pin slimline sockets, 8- foot recessed double contact high output, 4-foot T5 standard and high output sock ets under “National Impacts Summary” for the user-selected TSL.

Graphs Contains base-case and sta ndards-case shipment and NPV graphs.

Data Tables Contains data tables for NPV calculations, shipments, energy consumption, lamp stoc k, and other model outputs.

Res 4ftMBP HighExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 4-foot medium bipin lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in the residential

sector. The matrices characterize those consumers with11A-2 high lighting expertise. This sheet also includes toggle

menus for each market-share matrix that show several average system characteristics at each TSL.

Res 4ftMBP NoExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 4-foot medium bipin lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in the residential

sector. The matrices characterize those consumers with no lighting expertise. This sh eet also includes toggle menus for each market-share matrix that show several average system characteristics at each TSL.

Comm 4ftMBP HighExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 4-foot medium bipin lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in the commercial

sector. The matrices characterize those consumers with high lighting expertise. This sheet also includes toggle

menus for each market-share matrix that show several average system characteristics at each TSL.

Comm 4ftMBP NoExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 4-foot medium bipin lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in the commercial

sector. The matrices characterize those consumers with no lighting expertise. This sh eet also includes toggle menus for each market-share matrix that show several average system characteristics at each TSL.

8ftSP HighExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 8-foot single pin slimline lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in the commercial

sector. The matrices characterize those consumers with high lighting expertise. This sheet also includes toggle

menus for each market-share matrix that show several average system characteristics at each TSL.

8ftSP NoExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 8-foot single pin slimline lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in the commercial

sector. The matrices characterize those consumers with no lighting expertise. This sh eet also includes toggle menus for each market-share matrix that show several average system characteristics at each TSL.11A-3 8ftHO HighExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 8-foot recessed double contact high output lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in

the industrial sector. The ma trices characterize those consumers with high lighting expertise. This sheet also includes toggle menus for each market-share matrix that show several average system characteristics at each TSL.

8ftHO NoExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 8-foot recessed double contact high output lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in

the industrial sector. The ma trices characterize those consumers with no lighting expertise. This sheet also includes toggle menus for each market-share matrix that show several average system characteristics at each TSL.

T5 HighExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output and high output lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in the commercial sector and industrial sector, respectively. The matrices characterize those consumers with high lighting expertise. This sheet also includes toggle menus for each market-s hare matrix that show several average system char acteristics at each TSL.

T5 NoExp_MSM Contains the user selected market-share matrices (technology mix of shipments) of 4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output and high output lamp and lamp-and-ballast shipments in the commercial sector and industrial sector, respectively. The matrices characterize those consumers with no lighting expertise. Th is sheet also includes toggle

menus for each market-share matrix that show several average system characteristics at each TSL.

Assumptions Documents various assumptions made in the commercial,

residential and industrial sector models.

Average System Characteristics Calculates the average shippe d system characteristics (e.g.lamp price, input power, lumen output) from the marketshare matrices.

Initial Stock Calculation Calculates the initial stocks of 4-foot medium bipin, 8-foot single pin slimline, 8-foot recessed double contact high output, 4-foot T5 miniature bi pin standard and high output lamps from historical shipments and shipment projections.11A-4 The sheet also calculates the slope of the age distribution for fluorescent systems from historical lamp shipments and ballast shipment census data.

4-foot MBP Initial Ballast Stock Performs the calculations of lamp replacement shipments

on all commercial sector 4-foot medium bipin ballasts in

the installed base in 2011 for the base case and standards

case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the lamp-and-ballast systems and uses the ballast lifetime and

retrofit rate to calculate the su rviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet then ca lculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

4-foot MBP New Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of commercial sector 4- foot medium bipin lamp-and-ba llast system shipments after 2011 and all lamp replacements on this installed ballast

base in the base case and standards case. The sheet tracks these shipments and uses the ballast lifetime to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacem ents on this ballast stock based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by the marketshare matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

4-foot MBP Res. Init. Ballast Stock Performs the calculations of lamp replacement shipments

on residential sector 4-foot medium bipin ballasts in the

installed base in 2011 for the base case and standards case.The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the lamp-andballast systems and uses the ballast lifetime and retrofit rate to calculate the surviving st ock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by th e market-share matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

4-foot MBP Res. New Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of residential sector 4- foot medium bipin lamp-and-ba llast system shipments after11A-5 2011 and all lamp replacements on this installed ballast

base in the base case and standards case. The sheet tracks these shipments and uses the ballast lifetime to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacem ents on this ballast stock based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by the marketshare matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

8-foot SP Initial Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of lamp replacement shipments on all 8-foot single pin slimline ballasts in the

installed base in 2011 for the base case and standards case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the lamp and ballast systems and uses the ballast lifetime and retrofit rate to calculate the surviving st ock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by th e market-share matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

8-foot SP New Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of 8-foot single pin slimline lamp-and-ballast system shipments after 2011 and all lamp replacements on this in stalled ballast base in the

base case and standards case. In addition this sheetperforms calculations of 4-foot medium bipin lamp-andballast system shipments afte r 2011 to replace some retired or retrofitted 8-foot T12 singl e pin slimline ballasts. The sheet calculates ballast replacements due to failure or retrofitting of ballasts tracke d in the 8-foot SP Initial

Ballast Stock and 8-foot SP Ne w Ballast Stock sheets. The sheet tracks these shipments and uses the ballast lifetime to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacem ents on this ballast stock based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by the marketshare matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

8-foot HO Initial Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of lamp replacement shipments on all 8-foot rece ssed double contact HO ballasts11A-6 in the installed base in 2011 for the base case and standards

case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the lamp and ballast systems and uses the ballast lifetime and retrofit rate to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by th e market-share matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

8-foot HO New Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of 8-foot recessed double contact HO lamp-and-ballast system shipments after 2011 and all lamp replacements on this installed ballast base in

the base case and standards case. The sheet calculates ballast replacements due to failu re of ballasts tracked in the

8-foot HO Initial Ballast Stoc k and 8-foot HO New Ballast

Stock sheets. The sheet tracks these shipments and uses the

ballast lifetime to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacements on this ballast stock based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

4-foot T5 SO Initial Ballast Stock Performs the calculations of lamp replacement shipments

on all commercial sector 4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output ballasts in th e installed base in 2011 for the base

case and standards case. The sheet starts with the stock accounting of the lamp-and-ballast systems and uses the ballast lifetime and retrofit rate to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

4-foot T5 SO New Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of 4-foot T5 miniature bipin standard output lamp-a nd-ballast system shipments after 2011 and all lamp repl acements on this installed

ballast base in the base case and standards case. The sheet starts by calculating new lamp-and-ballast system shipments due to new construction, fixture replacement,11A-7 and renovation in the commerc ial sector. The sheet calculates ballast replacements due to failure of ballasts

tracked in the 4-foot T5 SO Initial Ballast Stock and 4-foot

T5 SO New Ballast Stock sheet s. The sheet tracks these shipments and uses the ballast lifetime to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacements on this ballast stock based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by th e market-share matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

4-foot T5 HO Initial Ballast Stock Performs the calculations of lamp replacement shipments on all high sector 4-foot T5 miniature bipin high output

ballasts in the installed base in 2011 for the base case and

standards case. The sheet star ts with the stock accounting of the lamp-and-ballast systems and uses the ballast lifetime and retrofit rate to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.

4-foot T5 HO New Ballast Stock Mainly performs the calculations of 4-foot T5 miniature bipin high output lamp-and-ball ast system shipments after 2011 and all lamp replacements on this installed ballast

base in the base case and standards case. The sheet starts by calculating new lamp-and-ballast system shipments due

to new construction and renovati on in the industrial sector. The sheet calculates ballast repl acements due to failure of

ballasts tracked in the 4-foot T5 HO Initial Ballast Stock

and 4-foot T5 HO New Ballast Stock sheets. The sheet tracks these shipments and uses the ballast lifetime to calculate the surviving stock in each year. It then performs calculations of lamp replacem ents on this ballast stock based on the lamp replacement schedule. Finally, using average system properties as determined by the marketshare matrices, the sheet then calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating cost due to this installed stock of ballasts for each year.11A-8 Equipment Prices Contains the end-user product prices and installation labor costs of lamps and ballasts. Th is worksheet also contains price scaling factors for the lifetimes used in the model.

Electricity Prices Contains projected average electricity for the three

economic scenarios.

Heat Rates Contains the site-to-source conve rsion factors that are used in the source energy savings calculations for electricity.

Lamp Replacement Schedule Contains the schedule for la mp replacement by year of

ballast life. The sheet also tr acks the end of life of lamps installed prior to 2012.

Residential Growth Calculates the growth rate for the residential sector.

Growth and Emerging Techn. Performs the calculations of systems shipped to the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors due to new construction, renovation, and fixture replacement. The

sheet also accounts for th e penetration of emerging technologies and 4-foot T5 MiniBP lamps.

11A.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

The NIA spreadsheet that models residential and commercial sector IRL consists of the following worksheets:

Input and Summary Contains user input selecti ons under “User Inputs” and a summary table of the cumulative NES and NPV for commercial and residential incandescent reflector lamps (IRL) under “National Impacts Summary” for the selected

TSL.

IRL Plots Contains base-case and sta ndards-case shipment, stock, lumen output, and NPV graphs.

IRL Data Tables Contains data tables for NPV calculations, shipments, energy consumption, lamp stock, and lumen output.

Mrkt Shre Mtrx-Scen. Choice Contains the market-share matrices (technology mix of stock) of IRL and CFL in the commercial and residential

sector. These market share matrices reflect the scenario chosen by the user (Shift Prod Sub, Shift No Prod Sub, Roll-up Prod Sub, Roll-up No Prod Sub, 10 percent Lumen11A-9 Increase, RIA, or User Input ). The percentage of IRL going to CFL or other emergi ng technologies is shown as well as average lamp charac teristics in the base and

standards case in the commercial and residential sectors.

Mrkt Shre Mtrx-User Input Allows the user to input cust om market-share matrices for commercial and residential IRL as well as the percentage of IRL going to CFL or other emerging technologies.

Assumptions Documents various assumptions made in the commericial

and residential sector IRL model.

Residential Before EISA Calculates IRL lamp replacement shipments in the

residential sector in the base case as if EISA 2007 had not

introduced a standard. The sheet starts with the stock of covered commercial and residential IRL in 2005 and grows that stock according to a speci fied growth rate. It then divides that stock among diffe rent lamp lifetimes as determined by the market-share matrices and performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the retirement

schedule.

Base Case Residential IRL Calculates IRL lamp replacement shipments in the residential sector for the base case (this sheet takes into account the EISA 2007 standard). The total stock of IRL is calculated for each year base d on the calculated growth

rates for the residential sector . Based on the user-selected market share matrices, this sheet divides the stock among different lamp lifetimes and pe rforms calculations of lamp replacements based on the reti rement schedule. Finally, using average system properties for each lamp lifetime as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet calculates energy consump tion, equipment cost, and operating costs of IRL in the re sidential sector in the base

case.

Base Case Commercial IRL Calculates IRL lamp replacement shipments in the

commercial sector for the base case. The total stock of IRL is calculated for each year based on the calculated growth

rates for the commercial sector . Based on the user-selected market share matrices, this sheet divides the stock among different lamp lifetimes and pe rforms calculations of lamp replacements based on the reti rement schedule. Finally, using average system properties for each lamp lifetime as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet11A-10 calculates energy consump tion, equipment cost, and operating costs of IRL in the commercial sector in the base

case.

Standards Case Residential IRL Calculates IRL lamp replacement shipments in the

residential sector for the standa rds case. The total stock of IRL is calculated for each year based on the calculatedgrowth rates for the residential sector. Based on the userselected market share matrices, this sheet divides the stock among different lamp lifetimes and performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the retirement schedule. Finally, using average system properties for each lamp lifetime as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet calculates energy cons umption, equipment cost, and operating costs of IRL in the residential sector in the

standards case.

Standards Case Commercial IRL Calculates IRL lamp replacement shipments in the

commercial sector for the standards case. The total stock of IRL is calculated for each year based on the calculatedgrowth rates for the commercial sector. Based on the userselected market share matrices, this sheet divides the stock among different lamp lifetimes and performs calculations of lamp replacements based on the retirement schedule. Finally, using average system properties for each lamp lifetime as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet calculates energy cons umption, equipment cost, and operating costs of IRL in the commercial sector in the

standards case.

Standards Case Res RCFL Calculates RCFL lamp replacement shipments in the

residential sector for the standa rds case. The total stock of IRL is calculated for each year based on the calculatedgrowth rates for the residential sector. Based on the userselected market share matrices, this sheet divides the stock among different lamp lifetimes and types (IRL vs RCFL) and performs calculations of lamp replacements based on

the retirement schedule. Fi nally, using average system properties for each lamp lifetime as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating costs of RCFL

in the residential sector in the standards case.

Standards Case Comm RCFL Calculates RCFL lamp replacement shipments in the

commercial sector for the standards case. The total stock11A-11 of IRL is calculated for each year based on the calculatedgrowth rates for the commercial sector. Based on the userselected market share matrices, this sheet divides the stock among different lamp lifetimes and types (IRL vs RCFL) and performs calculations of lamp replacements based on

the retirement schedule. Fi nally, using average system properties for each lamp lifetime as determined by the market-share matrices, the sheet calculates energy consumption, equipment cost, and operating costs of RCFL

in the commercial sector in the standards case.

Growth Rate and Penetration Calculates growth rates for both the commercial and

residential sectors. Also c ontains penetration rates of emerging and existing technologies.

Intial Stock and Proj. Ship. Calculates the initial (2005) stock of covered IRL in the

commercial and residential sectors.

Historical Shipments Contains the total historical shipments of IRL from 2001 to 2005 as well as shipments of IRL in the commercial and

residential sector.

Electricity Prices Contains projected average electricity for the three

economic scenarios.

Heat Rates Contains the site-to-source conve rsion factors that are used in the source energy savings calculations for electricity.

Retirement Schedules Contains the percentage of la mps retiring in each year of life for each lamp lifetim e used in the model.

11A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS

11A.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps

Basic instructions for operating the NI A spreadsheets for GSFL are as follows:

1. On ce you have downloaded the NIA spreadsheet file from the Web, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the worksheet Input and Summary

.

2. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top me nu bar to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.11A-12 3. The user can change the model parameters lis ted in the grey box labelled “User Inputs”. The parameters are:

a. EL : To change the value, use the drop-dow n arrow and select the desired EL for each lamp type. Though T12 and T8 lamps are considered to be in the same product class, this spreadsheet allows separate ELs to be set for each.

b. Comm ercial 4-foot T12 MBP Sta ndards-Induced Retrofit Rate: To change the value, type in the desired percenta ge annual Standards-Case Retrofit Rate.

c. Residential 4-foot MBP Standa rds-Induced Conversion Rate: To change the value, type in the desired percentage annua l rate of replacement of 4-ft T12 retired systems with 4-ft T8 systems for each lamp type.

d. 8-foot T12 SP Slimline Sta ndards-Induced Retrofit Rate: To change the value, type in the desired percentage a nnual Standards-Case Retrofit Rate for each lamp type.

e. Non-Regulatory Alternatives: To change the value, use the drop-down arrow

and select the desired non -regulatory alternative.

f. Electricity Price Trend: To change the value, use the drop-down arrow and

select the desired Growth leve l (Reference, Low, or High).

g. Discount Rate: To change the value,use the drop-down arrow and select the desired Discount Rate (3% or 7%).

h. Year to Discount To: To change the value, type in the desired year.

i. Base Case Shipment Scenario: To change the scenario, use the drop-down

arrow and select the desired base-case sh ipment scenario (existing or emerging technologies). j. Standards-Case Efficacy Shipment Scenario: To change the scenario, use the drop-down arrow and select the desired sh ipment scenario (shift or roll-up).

k. Lighting Expertise Shipment Scenario: To change the scenario, use the dropdown arrow and select the desired expert ise scenario (High or Market SegmentBased).

l. Market Segment-Base Ligh ting Expertise Inputs: To change the value, type in the desired percentage of consumers in each market segment and sector who have high lighting expertise.

4. The user can run preset TSLs by clicking th e quick TSL selection buttons on the right.

5. The results are automatically updated and ar e reported for each product class in the “National Impact Summary” table. Results are also updated in the "Graphs" and "Data

Tables" worksheets.

11 A.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps

Basic instructions for operating the NI A spreadsheet for IRL are as follows:11A-13 1. Once the NIA spreadsheet has been downloade d from the Web, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the worksheet Input and Summary

.

2. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top me nu bar to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.

3. The user can change the model parameters lis ted in the grey box labelled “User Inputs”. The parameters are:

a. TSL: To change the value, use the drop-dow n arrow and select the desired TSL

for IRL.

b. IRL Standards Case Shipments Scenario: To change the value, use the dropdown arrow and select the desired shipment scenario (Shift Prod Sub, Shift No Prod, Roll-up Prod Sub, Roll-up No Prod, 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity). If user input is chosen, click the hyp erlink to populate custom market-share

matrices.

c. IRL Base Case Shipments Scenario: To change the value, use the drop-down arrow and select the desired shipme nt scenario (Emerging or Existing Technologies)

d. IRL RIA Non-Regulatory Alternative: To change the valu e, use the drop-down arrow and select the desired non-regulatory alternative in the regulatory impact analysis.

e. Electricity Price Trend: To change the value, use the drop-down arrow and

select the desired Growth leve l (Reference, Low, or High).

f. Discount Rate: To change the value, use the drop-down arrow to select the desired discount rate (3% or 7%).

g. Year to Discount To: To change the value, type in the desired year.

h. IRL installed stock adjustment (stnds case ): To change the value, type in the desired percentage stock adjustment for the standards case.

6. The results are automatically updated and ar e reported for each product class in the “National Impact Summary” table. Results ar e also updated in the “I RL Plots” and “IRL

Data Tables” worksheets.