Technical Support Document (TSD) for 

Emissions InventOJies for the State Implementation Plan Revision: 

NOx and VOC Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on MOVES 2010a 

Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area 

Submitted by the Bmeau of Air Quality 

Pennsylvania Depru1ment of Environmental Protection 

TSD Prepared April 2013 by 

Jessica L. Fry 

Office of Air Monitoring and AnaJysis 3AP40 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 3 

1650 Arch Street 

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103 

Reviewed by Alice Chow Acting Associate Director 

Office of Air Monitoring and Analysis (3AP40) 
I. Introduction 

The purpose of this document is to provide a technical summary of the Office of Air 

Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review of the emissions inventories submitted with 

the State Implementation Plan (SIP) Revision: NOx and VOC Motor Vehicle Emission 

Budget Revisions Based on MOVES 2010a for the Lancaster Eight-Hour Ozone 

Maintenance Plan submitted by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental 

Protection (P ADEP). This review does not determine the approvability of the Lancaster 

area SIP revision. Pennsylvania is updating their NOx and VOC motor vehicle emissions 

budgets submitted in their Eight-hour Ozone SIP for Lancaster county for the years 2009 

and 2018 using MOVES2010a and subsequently reviewing and updating (if needed) the 

NOx and VOC emissions inventories for point, nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad sources. 

Emission inventories in this Lancaster Area SIP revision are used to document that the 

SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when previous onroad mobile emissions 

inventories are replaced with MOVES2010a inventories. The plan should also 

demonstrate that growth and control strategy assumptions for point, nonpoint, and 

nonroad mobile sources continue to be valid and any minor updates do not change the 

overall conclusions of the SIP. Any questions pertaining to this technical summary 

should be directed to Alice Chow, Acting Associate Director, Office of Air Monitoring 

and Analysis, at 215-814-2144 or via email at chow.alice@epa.gov. 

II 2009 and 2018 Emissions Inventories 

In the Lancaster Area SIP revision, emissions inventories are used to support the 

States claim that the area is continuing to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard as set 

forth in the SIP when using MOVES 2010a for the onroad mobile emissions inventory. 

In order to do this, the state should review the point, nonpoint, and nonroad NOx and 

VOC emissions inventories submitted with the SIP for the interim (2009) and attainment 

(20 18) years and determine if changes in growth and control strategy assumptions affect 

the conclusion that the area will remain in compliance with the 1997 8-hour ozone 

standard. 

In the Lancaster Area SIP revision PADEP analyzed the NOx and VOC point 

source emissions estimates for 2009 and 2018 submitted with the Eight-Hour Ozone 

NAAQS Lancaster Area SIP. P ADEP has resubmitted point source emissions inventories 

for 2009 and 2018. For the 2009 point source inventory, PADEP submitted actual2009 

emissions from individual facilities in the area. The emissions were submitted by 

tons/year and tons/day. For the 2018 projected inventories PADEP used information 

developed for the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort and did a straight-line 

interpolation between the 2007 MARAMA baseline inventory and the 2020 MARAMA 

projected year inventory. It was concluded that the emissions had been overestimated in 

the SIP and that the area will continue to be in attainment with the new emission 

estimates. OAMA staff reviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable. 
Pennsylvania conducted an analysis of the NOx and VOC emissions estimates for 

non point sources submitted for 2009 and 2018 with the 1997 ozone NAAQS Lancaster 

Area SIP to determine if the nonpoint NOx and VOC emissions inventories need to be 

updated for this revision. For the 2009 nonpoint source emissions Pennsylvania 

compared U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, and the Energy Information 

Administration, U.S. Department of Energy actual growth from 2002-2009 to the growth 

estimates used in the Lancaster Area SIP. Pennsylvania concluded the estimates 

submitted for 2009 in the maintenance plan had been overestimated and due to their 

conservative nature the nonpoint source emissions were not recalculated for this revision. 

For the 2018 emission estimates PADEP revised their growth estimates with updated data 

used in the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort and determined that emissions 

growth for the 2018 maintenance year was overestimated and therefore did not need to be 

recalculated. OAMA staff reviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable. 

The nonroad emissions inventory estimates for NOx and VOC submitted for 2009 

and 2018 in Eight-hour Ozone NAAQS Lancaster Area SIP were calculated using 

USEPA's NONROAD2005 model. Pennsylvania compared growth estimates used in the 

NONROAD2005 to the growth estimates in the current NONROAD2008a. These 

comparisons along with fleet turnover led Pennsylvania to the conclusion that the general 

downward trend in NOx and VOC emissions in this sector supports the conclusion that 

the area will continue to maintain compliance with the eight-hour ozone standard. 

OAMA staff reviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable. 

In the Lancaster Area SIP revision, onroad emissions were estimated using the 

MOVES201 Oa model by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., who is a consultant to the Pennsylvania 

Department of Transportation (PennDOT). P ADEP revised the 2004 and 2009 onroad 

NOx and VOC emissions inventories and the 2018 projection inventory for the Lancaster 

Area SIP revision. Pennsylvania used the same Statistical Evaluation of Projected 

Traffic method for forecasting traffic growth or vehicle miles travelled. New input files 

for use in MOVES 2010a were developed using the local data from PennDOT, with some 

inputs being developed by the software PPSUITE, which is a tool for estimating speeds 

and processing emissions rates based upon accepted transportation engineering 

methodologies. In accordance with the EPA technical guidance for MOVES an average 

July weekday can be used to represent an ozone season weekday. Mobile emissions 

values were given in units of tons per day by road type, source type and process for a July 

weekday. OAMA staff reviewed the files and emission results and believes them to be 

reasonable.