Technical SupportDocument (TSD) for Emissions InventOJies for the State Implementation PlanRevision: NOx and VOC Motor Vehicle EmissionBudget Revisions Based on MOVES 2010a

LancasterEight-HourOzone MaintenanceArea

Submitted by the Bmeau ofAir Quality Pennsylvania Depru1ment ofEnvironmental Protection

TSD Prepared April 2013 

### by Jessica

### L. Fry Office ofAir Monitoring and AnaJysis 3AP40 U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency Region 3 1650 Arch Street Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103

Reviewed by Alice Chow Acting Associate Director OfficeofAir Monitoring and Analysis (3AP40)

### I. Introduction

The purpose ofthis document is to provide a technical summary ofthe Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis (OAMA) review ofthe emissions inventories submitted with the State ImplementationPlan (SIP) Revision: NOx and VOC Motor Vehicle Emission BudgetRevisions Based on MOVES 2010afor the LancasterEight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan submittedby the Pennsylvania Department ofEnvironmental Protection (PADEP). This review does not determine the approvability ofthe Lancaster

area SIP revision. Pennsylvania is updating their NOx and VOC motorvehicle emissions budgets submitted in their Eight-hour Ozone SIP for Lancaster county for the years 2009 and 2018 using MOVES2010aand subsequently reviewing and updating (ifneeded) the NOx and VOC emissions inventories for point, nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad sources. Emission inventories in this Lancaster Area SIP revision are used to document that the SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when previous onroad mobile emissions inventories are replaced with MOVES2010a inventories. The plan should also demonstrate that growth and control strategy assumptions for point, nonpoint, and nonroad mobile sources continue to be valid and any minorupdates do not change the overall conclusions ofthe SIP. Any questions pertaining to this technical summary should be directed to Alice Chow, Acting Associate Director, Office ofAir Monitoring and Analysis, at 215-814-2144 or viaemail at chow.alice@epa.gov.



### II 2009 and 2018 Emissions Inventories

In the Lancaster Area SIP revision, emissions inventories are used to supportthe States claim that the areais continuing to attain the 1997 8-hour ozone standard as set forth in the SIP whenusing MOVES 2010a for the onroadmobile emissions inventory. In orderto do this, the state should review the point, nonpoint, and nonroadNOx and VOC emissions inventories submitted with the SIP for the interim (2009) and attainment (2018) years and determine ifchanges in growth and control strategy assumptions affect the conclusion that the area will remain in compliance with the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.

In the LancasterArea SIP revision PADEP analyzed the NOx and VOC point

source emissions estimates for 2009 and 2018 submitted with the Eight-Hour Ozone NAAQS Lancaster Area SIP. PADEP has resubmittedpoint source emissionsinventories for 2009 and 2018. Forthe 2009 point source inventory, PADEP submitted actual2009 emissions from individual facilities inthe area. The emissions were submittedby tons/year and tons/day. For the 2018 projected inventories PADEP used information developed for the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort and did a straight-line interpolation betweenthe 2007 MARAMAbaseline inventory and the 2020 MARAMA projected year inventory. Itwas concludedthatthe emissions hadbeen overestimated in the SIP and that the area will continue to be in attainment with the new emission estimates. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.Pennsylvania conducted an analysis ofthe NOx and VOC emissions estimates for

nonpoint sources submitted for 2009 and 2018 with the 1997 ozoneNAAQS Lancaster Area SIP to determine ifthe nonpoint NOx and VOC emissions inventories need to be updated for this revision. Forthe 2009 nonpoint source emissions Pennsylvania compared U.S. Department ofCommerce, Bureau ofCensus, and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department ofEnergy actual growth from 2002-2009 to the growth estimates used in the LancasterArea SIP. Pennsylvania concluded the estimates submitted for 2009 in the maintenanceplanhad been overestimated and due to their conservative nature the nonpoint source emissions were notrecalculated for this revision. For the 2018 emission estimates PADEP revised their growth estimates with updated data used in the MARAMA 2011 regional modeling effort and determined that emissions growth for the 2018 maintenance year was overestimated and therefore did not need to be recalculated. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.

The nonroad emissions inventory estimates for NOx and VOC submitted for 2009 and 2018 in Eight-hour OzoneNAAQS Lancaster Area SIP were calculated using USEPA's NONROAD2005 model. Pennsylvania compared growth estimates used in the NONROAD2005 to the growth estimates inthe currentNONROAD2008a. These comparisons along with fleet turnover led Pennsylvaniato the conclusion that the general downward trend in NOx and VOC emissions in this sector supports the conclusion that the area will continue to maintain compliance with the eight-hour ozone standard. OAMA staffreviewed the analysis and believes it is reasonable.

In the Lancaster Area SIP revision, onroad emissions were estimated using the MOVES201Oa model by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc., who is a consultantto the Pennsylvania Department ofTransportation (PennDOT). PADEP revised the 2004 and 2009 onroad NOx and VOC emissions inventories and the 2018 projection inventory for the Lancaster Area SIP revision. Pennsylvania used the same StatisticalEvaluation of Projected Traffic method for forecasting traffic growth or vehicle miles travelled. Newinput files for use in MOVES 2010awere developed using the local data from PennDOT, with some inputs being developed bythe software PPSUITE, which is a tool for estimating speeds and processing emissions rates based upon accepted transportation engineering methodologies. In accordance with the EPA technical guidance for MOVES an average July weekday can be used to represent an ozone season weekday. Mobile emissions values were giveninunits oftons per day by road type, source type and process for a July weekday. OAMA staffreviewed the files and emissionresults and believes them to be reasonable.