THE CHANGING CONSUMER 


DEMOGRAPHICS: 


An FTC Workshop - December 6, 2016 

Welcome
 

Chairwoman Edith Ramirez 

Federal Trade Commission
 
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
 

OF U.S. CONSUMERS
 

Jennifer Ortman, U.S. Census Bureau 

Mark Lopez, Pew Research Center 

Rolf Pendall, Urban Institute 
 

 

 

 

Changing Demographics of the 

U.S. Population
 

Jennifer M. Ortman
 

The Changing Consumer Demographics: An FTC Workshop
 

December 6, 2016
 

This presentation is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to 

encourage discussion of work in progress. Any views expressed on statistical, 

methodological, or technical issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the 

U.S. Census Bureau. 
5 
Overview
 

 Background 

 What? Why? How? 

 Results from the 2014 National Projections
 

 How to access projections data 

6 
 

What data do we produce? 

National Projections 

 More frequently produced 

 Demographic detail includes 

age, sex, race, Hispanic 

origin, and nativity (in 2014) 

 Projections for 50-year 

horizon 

7 
 

 

What data do we produce?
 

National Projections 

 More frequently produced
 

 Demographic detail includes 

age, sex, race, Hispanic 

origin, and nativity (in 2014) 

 Projections for 50-year 

horizon 

State Projections 

 Less frequently produced
 

 Fewer series with full 

demographic detail
 

 Haven’t released full detail 

since 1997 

 Haven’t released any 

projections since 2004 

 Links to states producing 

their own projections on 

our website 

8 
 

 

Why do we produce projections?
 

 Used as the base for projections of specific 

populations by other federal agencies 

 National Institute on Aging: elderly population for 

health planning 

 Bureau of Labor Statistics: working-age population for 

labor force projections 

 National Cancer Institute: projection of deaths to 

project the incidence of cancer 

 Also used for resource planning and academic 

research 

9 
 

 

 

How are estimates different
 

from projections?
 

 Estimates 

 For dates in the past and present 

 Based on existing data 

 Projections 

 For dates in the future 

 Based on assumptions about future demographic 

trends 

 When both an estimate and projection are 

available for the same date, estimates are the 

preferred data. 

10 
 

Making National Projections
 

Starting 

Population 

Births 

and 

Immigrants 

Deaths 

and 

Emigrants 

Future 

Population 

Aging 

11
 
 

 

 

 

 

2014 National Projections
 

 Second series of projections based on the 

2010 Census 

 Projections of the U.S. population by age, sex, 

race, Hispanic origin, and nativity 

 Covers the period from 2014 to 2060 

 First series of projections to incorporate 

separate assumptions about the fertility of 

native and foreign-born women 

12 
0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

United States Population by Nativity: 2014 to 2060 

(Population in millions) 

Native born Foreign born Percent foreign born 

416.8 

276.4 286.6 302.5 315.1 326.0 338.6 

42.3 

47.9 

56.9 

65.1 

72.3 

78.2 

13.3 14.3 15.8 17.1 18.2 18.8 

318.7 

334.5 

359.4 

380.2 

398.3 

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
 

13 
 

Numeric Change in Population and Components of Population Change: 2014-2060 

(In millions) 

196.6 

156.8 

(79.7%) 

native-born 

mothers 

39.8 (20.3%) 

foreign-born 

mothers 162.6 

98.1 

64.1 

Total population change, Births Deaths Net international migration 

2014-2060 

14 
Population Aged 65 and Over: 2014 to 2060
 

46 

56 

74 

82 

88 

98 

15 17 

21 22 22 24 

Population aged 65 years and over (in millions) 

Percent of total population 

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
 

15 
Percent Change in Population Size by Decade: 2000 -2010 to 2050-2060
 

Total population 65 and over 

39
 

10 

8 7 

6 5 5 

15 

31 

11 

7 

12 

2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050 2050-2060
 

16 
 

Distribution of the Older Population by Age Group: 2014 to 2060
 (Percent of population 65 and over) 

65 to 74
 75 to 84
 85 and over 

2014
 

2030
 

2060
 47 

53 

57 

33 

35 

30 

20
 

13
 

12
 

17 
 

 

 

Projected Dependency Ratios: 2014 to 2060
 

Ratio Total Dependency Youth Dependency Old-Age Dependency
 

100 

90 

80 

70 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

0 

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 

Note: Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and over/Population aged 18 to 64)*100.
 

Youth dependency = (Population under 18/Population aged 18 to 64)*100.
 

Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)/Population aged 18 to 64)*100
 

18 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Percent Female for the Older Population by Age: 2014 and 2060
 

2014
 2060
 

66
 

56 

53 

57 

54 

51 

54 

60 

The percentage of the older 

population that is female is 

projected to decrease slightly, 

particularly for those 75 and 

over. 

65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over 

Note: The scale begins at 50 percent, rather than zero. 

19 
Percent Minority: 2014 to 2060 

Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic Total population 65 and over 

White alone population. 56
 

38 

40 

45 

49 

53 

22 

24 

28 

34 

40 

45 

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
 

20 
India

Indonesia

China

Russia

United States

Poland

Ukraine

Canada

United Kingdom

Spain

France

Italy

Germany

Japan

World

Percent 65 Years and Over in Selected Countries: 2014 and 2050
 

2014 2050
 

World 

Japan 

6 

7 

10 

13 

15 

15 

16 

17 

18 

18 

18 

21 

21 

8 

26 

Germany
 

Italy
 

France
 

Spain
 

United Kingdom
 

Developed Canada Countries 

Ukraine 

Poland 

United States 

Russia 

China 

Largest 

Indonesia Developing 

Countries India 15 

19 

27 

26 

22 

32 

29 

26 

24 

31 

26 

31 

30 

17 

21 

40 
 

Summary
 

 The U.S. population is projected to increase 

from 319 million to 417 million between 2014 

and 2060, growing more slowly in future 

decades than in the recent past. 

 By 2060, nearly one-in-five of the nation’s 

total population is projected to be foreign 

born. 

22 
 

Summary (continued)
 

 The older population is projected to more 

than double, growing from 46 million in 2014 

to 98 million in 2060. 

 Growth in the older population will be driven 

by the aging of the baby boomers over the 

next two decades. 

 By 2030, one in five people living in the United States will 

be 65 years or older. 

23 
 

 

Summary (continued)
 

 Despite the increase in the share of the U.S. 

population that is in the older ages, the nation 

is projected to remain one of the youngest 

developed countries in the world. 

24 
 

Accessing Projections Data

http://www.census.gov/topics/population/population-projections.html 

25 
Contact Information
 

Jennifer Ortman
 

jennifer.m.ortman@census.gov
 

Projections Branch
 

(301) 763-2428
 

http://www.census.gov/topics/population/population-projections.html 

26 
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
 

OF U.S. CONSUMERS
 

Jennifer Ortman, U.S. Census Bureau 

Mark Lopez, Pew Research Center 

Rolf Pendall, Urban Institute 
Big Trends That Are Reshaping 

Key U.S. Communities 

Mark Hugo Lopez 

Director of Hispanic Research 
 

 

 

 

 

Most Say Racial, Ethnic Diversity
 

Makes the U.S. a Better Place to Live
 

Increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups and

nationalities in U.S. make country a ... 

Better place 

57 

Worse place 

8 

Doesn't make 

difference 

34 

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted Aug. 27-Oct. 4, 2015 

December 9, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 29 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Big Trends among U.S. Hispanics 

U.S. Latino population growth, dispersion slowing 

U.S. births to Hispanic parents now drive Hispanic 

population growth, not immigration 

Foreign-born share among Hispanics is in decline
 

Half of U.S.-born Latinos are under age 19 

A growing share of Latinos live in English only 

households 

Record number of young Latinos are attending 

college 
U.S. Hispanic Population Reaches New High 
 

In millions 
 

 

 

 

U.S. Hispanic Population Growth 

Slows Sharply Since 2007
 Average annual growth rate
 

Note: The Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.
 

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau population estimates.
 

“U.S. Latino Population Growth and Dispersion Has Slowed Since Onset of the Great Recession”
 
 

 

 

Nearly Three-Quarters of U.S.-born
 

Latinos are Millennials—or Younger
 

% among Hispanics 

Younger Millennial Gen X Boomer Silent/Greatest 

than 18 adults (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69 and older) 

U.S. born 47 27 14 9 3

Foreign 24 7 born 6 26 37 

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS). 

“The Nation’s Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youth” 
 

 

 

 

 

About Three-Quarters of Hispanic
 

Millennials are Proficient in English
 

% among Hispanics 

32 35 

48 

50 

12 

1 

Do not 

speak English 

Speak English 

less than 

very well 

35 

37 36 

19 22 

9 12 5 

27 Speak 37 English 

28 very well 

20 20
 Speak only 16 English 

at home 

Proficient in English 

Silent/ 

Ages Millennial adults Gen X Boomer Greatest 

5 to 17 (18-33) (34-49) (50-68) (69+) 

Note: Respondents are asked if they speak a language besides English at home. If they answer yes, they are asked how well they speak English. Figures may not add to 100% due to
 

rounding.
 

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS).
 

“The Nation’s Latino Population Is Defined by Its Youth”
 
 

 

 

 

Big Trends among Asian Americans
 

Asian Americans are diverse 

Asian community is country’s fastest growing group
 

Among Asian American adults, three-quarters are 

immigrants 

Arrival of new immigrants from Asia is driving
 

population growth, not births
 

Asian Americans have the highest intermarriage rate 
U.S. AsianGroups, 2013
 

Population in thousands 

Chinese* 

Filipino 

Indian 

Vietnamese 

Korean 

Japanese* 

Pakistani 

Cambodian 

Hmong 

Thai 

Laotian 

Bangladeshi 

Burmese 

Indonesian 

Nepalese 

Sri Lankan

 Bhutanese

 Malaysian

 Mongolian 

% of Asians 

4,520 23.9 

3,649 19.3 

3,461 18.3 

1,907 10.1 

1,769 9.4 

1,447 7.6 

481 2.5 

323 1.7 

286 1.5 

275 1.5 

261 

170 0.9 

1.4 

136 0.7 

112 0.6 

99 0.5 

54 

32 0.2 

0.3 

32 0.2 

18 0.1 

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. 
A Century of Change for Three of 
 

the Nation’s Oldest Asian Origin Groups
 

% of the Asian-American population that is ... 

100
 

50
 

0 

61 

52 50 44 47 

38 

20 

12 10 8 

34 

28 30 37 24 

28 

23 

24 24 24 

3 

17 18 19 

18 22 

22 

20 20 19 Filipino 

Chinese
 

Japanese
 

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2013
 

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. 
 

 

U.S. Asian Population Grew 65% Since 2000
 

14,657 

19,659 

114 147 182 265 255 321 980 1,539 

3,500 

6,909 

11,899 

Asian-American population (alone and in 

combination), in thousands 

1900 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60 '70 '80 '90 2000 2014
 

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. 
Over 1 million more Asian Immigrants 
 

than Asian Newborns from 2000-2013
 

Sources of population change from 2000-2013, in millions 

U.S. births Immigration 

12.6 

3.1 

4.4 

7.1 

Asians Hispanics
 

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. 
 

Intermarriage Rates by Race and Ethnicity 
 

% of Newlyweds Married to Someone of a Different Race or Ethnicity 

27.7 25.7 

17.1 

9.4 

White Black Hispanic Asian
 

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files 
 

 

 

Big Trends among Immigrants
 

U.S. immigrant population is growing – in number 

and share 

Asia is now the biggest sender of immigrants 

Most immigrants are in the U.S. legally 

U.S. unauthorized immigrant population has
 

stabilized
 

Immigrants from Asia are better educated than 

immigrants from Mexico or Central America 
 

 

 

U.S. Immigrant Population Reached 45 million in 


2015; Projected to be 78.2 Million in 2065
 

Source: Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890. Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955; Pew Research 

Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data; Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
 
 

 

U.S. Foreign-Born Share
 

Projected to Hit Record Milestone in 2065
 

Source: Gibson and Jung (2006) for 1850 to 1890. Edmonston and Passel (1994) estimates for 1900-1955; Pew Research 

Center estimates for 1960-2015 based on adjusted census data; Pew Research Center projections for 2015-2065
 
 

 

Highest share of immigrants in Southwest, large cities
 

% foreign born, by county, 2010-2014
 

Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 5-year estimates via American FactFinder 

December 9, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 44 
 

 

 

 

2013

Among new immigrant arrivals,
 

Asians outnumber Hispanics
 

% of immigrants arriving to the U.S. in each year who are ... 

60 % 

20 

30 

40 

50 

Asian 

Hispanic 

10 

0 

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2014 

Note: Figures for 2001-2005 based on household population, excluding group quarters. 2014 figure includes arrivals from Jan. 1-Apr. 1, 2014. 

Race and ethnicity based on self-reports. Asians include only non-Hispanics. Hispanics are of any race. 

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of 2001-2014 American Community Surveys (IPUMS). 

December 9, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 45 
 

 

 

 

Latin American, Asian Immigrants
 

Make Up Most of Post-1965 Immigration
 %
 

Source: For 1965-2015, Pew Research Center estimates based on adjusted census data; for 1840-1919, Office of Immigration 

Statistics, Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, 2008, Table 2 
 

 

Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
 

Source: Estimates for the countries of origin come from Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1950 decennial census. Total population and foreignborn population estimates come from the U.S. Census Bureau, “Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population of the United States: 1850-2000.” 
 

Largest Immigrant Group in Each State
 

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2013 American Community Survey (IPUMS) 
 

U.S. foreign-born population
 

includes variety of groups
 

Source: Pew Research Center estimates based on residual methodology, applied to 2014 American Community Survey 

www.pewresearch.org 49 
U.S. Unauthorized immigrant 


population stable since 2009
 

www.pewresearch.org 50 
Education Characteristics of Recent Immigrants,
 

by Race and Ethnicity, 2010 

Less than College College +
 

Asian
 35 65

White
 42 58

Black
 62 38

Hispanic
 84 16

Source: Pew Research Center 2012 Asian-American Survey 
Contact Information
 

Mark Hugo Lopez 

Director of Hispanic Research 

mlopez@pewresearch.org 
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
 

OF U.S. CONSUMERS
 

Jennifer Ortman, U.S. Census Bureau 

Mark Lopez, Pew Research Center 

Rolf Pendall, Urban Institute 
 

 

 

 

Mapping America’s Futures:
 

The Growing Diversity of Diversity
 

in the United States
 

Rolf Pendall, Ph.D., Co-director,
 

Metropolitan Housing & Communities Policy Center
 

Presentation to the Federal Trade Commission
 

December 6, 2016
 
 

 

 

 

 

Overview 

Methods 

 How the Urban Institute uses Census Bureau projections to provide 

insights about local population change 

Looking toward 2030 

 Seniors are growing everywhere, but non-seniors aren’t. 

 Non-whites are growing everywhere, but white non-Hispanics aren’t. 

 The result in 2030 will be a nation whose sub-national population 

landscape remains “diversely diverse.” 
56 

How Mapping America’s
 

Futures works
 
 

We start with the Census Bureau’s mid-range 

population projections... 

http://apps.urban.org/features/m 

apping-americas-futures/ 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...then assess variations in county and state age- and 

race-specific birth, deaths, and net migration (2000s).
 

US states by life expectancy at birth, 2005 

Net % migration of people born 1976-95 from 

2000-15 Sources: life expectancy original data from "Measure of America“ 

2008-09; map by Tasty Cakes, CC-BY-3.0, 

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_states_by_life_exp 

ectancy.svg. Teen birth rates: Centers for Disease Control, 

Preventing Teen Pregnancy in the US-CDC Vital Signs-April 

2011.pdf, available at 

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_teen_birth_rates_b 

y_state_per_1000_girls_aged_15-19_years_2009.png. Migration: 

US Census 2000, American Community Survey 2015, via Steven 

Ruggles, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover, and 

Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 

6.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of 

Minnesota, 2015. 
 

 

Accounting for variations in birth, death, and 

migration, we distribute Census projections to 

counties, aggregating to 740 “commuting zones” 

Note: Images from online tool still are based 

on the first version of 

Mapping America’s 

Futures, which uses 

2012 US Census 

Bureau projections. An 

updated version of 

Mapping America’s 

Futures will be released 

in 2017. 

http://apps.urban.org/features/m 

apping-americas-futures/ 
 

 

We then vary our assumptions about birth, death, and 

migration rates to create 27 scenarios... 

http://apps.urban.org/features/m 

apping-americas-futures/ 
 

 

...so users can explore the impact of changing 

assumptions on population change. 

http://apps.urban.org/features/m 

apping-americas-futures/ 
 

All the data are freely downloadable.
 

http://apps.urban.org/features/mapping-americas-futures/
 
 

63 

What the latest update of 

Mapping America’s Futures 

suggests about aging and 

racial/ethnic diversity across 

the U.S. 
 

 

Variation in growth rates, with Midwest & rural loss, 

gains in coastal areas, Sunbelt and the Rockies 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
A few big metropolitan areas expect 1-2.5M new
 

residents between 2015 and 2030
 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
Senior population will rise everywhere 2015-30, often 

by over 50%, sometimes more than doubling 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
But under-65 population will decline or grow very little 

in large swaths of the US 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
Resulting in great diversity in the percent seniors by 

the year 2030
 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
Hispanics are growing everywhere except rural areas 

with older predominantly Hispanic populations 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
Broad growth in the (small) “other non-Hispanic” 

population—many complex reasons 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
Black non-Hispanic growth fastest in TX, FL, ATL, 
 

Charlotte, and rural areas with few black residents
 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
White non-Hispanic population will decline in much of
 

the US from 2015 to 2030
 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
Resulting in great diversity in the percent white nonHispanic by 2030
 

Source: Mapping America’s Futures, 8/2015 

vintage, all average scenario 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

74 

Concluding thoughts about aging and diversity 

The U.S. is aging everywhere... 

 But some areas have been rejuvenated by migration, especially from 

abroad, while others are markedly older because more young people 

have moved out than in. 

 And apart from a few rural areas, over two-thirds of residents will still 

be under 65, making the future one of age diversity. 

The U.S. is getting more racially and ethnically diverse... 

 But areas with faster growth from migration and births are diversifying 

faster than those with persistent outmigration and higher percentages 

of seniors. 
THE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
 

OF U.S. CONSUMERS
 

Jennifer Ortman, U.S. Census Bureau 

Mark Lopez, Pew Research Center 

Rolf Pendall, Urban Institute 
THE CHANGING CONSUMER 


DEMOGRAPHICS: 


An FTC Workshop - December 6, 2016