## Appendix J

Cost and Economic Analysis Methodologyi TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. Methodology for Estimating Cost and Economic Impact ............................... 1

1. ARB fleet survey ...................................

................................................... ....... 1

2. Vehicle Capital Costs ..............................

................................................... ..... 3

3. Costs by Fleet Age and Fleet Size .................. ................................................ 5

4. Scaling to Statewide Costs.........................

................................................... .. 9

5. Annual Costs.......................................

................................................... ....... 15

6. Total Costs........................................

................................................... ......... 20

7. Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Costs ............... ......................................... 22

B. Industry Groups....................................

................................................... ......... 23

1. The E-DRAM Model...................................

................................................... 24

2. Diesel Vehicles by Business Type ................... ............................................. 29

C. For-Hire Transportation or Warehousing ............. .......................................... 32

1. Small Fleet Case Study.............................

................................................... . 33

2. Fuel Transport Case Study. ......................... ................................................. 34

3. General Freight Transport Case Study. .............. .......................................... 34

4. Motor Coach Case Study. ............................ ................................................. 34

5. Refrigerated Transport Case Study.................. ............................................. 35

D. Construction .......................................

................................................... ........... 35

E. Agricultural Sector ................................

................................................... ........ 36

1. Almond Farm Case Study. ............................ ................................................ 39

F. Retail/Wholesale...................................

................................................... ......... 40

1. Produce Company Case Study......................... ............................................ 41

2. Beverage Company Case Study........................ ........................................... 41

G. Other Services .....................................

................................................... .......... 42

1. Street Sweeper Case Study.......................... ................................................ 43

2. Towing Case Study. .................................

................................................... .. 43

H. References .........................................

................................................... ............ 52iiiii

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: ARB Survey Results Number of Vehicles by Body Type . .......................... 2

Table 2: Fleet Size by Average Fleet Age .................... ........................................... 3

Table 3: Price Data for the Most Commonly Reported Vehicles in the Fleet Survey4

Table 4: Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles by Fleet Age for Large Fleets

(excluding special provisions)..................... ............................................. 14

Table 5: Total Number of Aftermarket and Originally Equipped DPFS .................. 17

Table 6: Cumulative Increased Retrofit Maintenance Costs ($2 008)..................... 17

Table 7: Fuel usage rates ...................................

................................................... 18

Table 8: Initial Reporting Costs (2010) ..................... ............................................. 19

Table 9: Total Annual Reporting Costs....................... ........................................... 20

Table 10: Total Reporting Costs .............................. ................................................ 20

Table 11: Total Statewide Compliance Costs (2008$)........... .................................. 21

Table 12: Increased Capital Costs as a Percentage of Californ ia Gross Domestic

Product ............................................

................................................... ..... 24

Table 13: 2013 Sector Cost Allocations....................... ............................................ 25

Table 14: Allocation of Transportation and Warehousing ....... ................................. 26

Table 15: Economic Impacts of the Proposed Regulation on the California Economy

in 2013............................................

................................................... ...... 26

Table 16: Sector Change in Real State Output Billions of 2008 dollars................... 27

Table 17: Sector Change in Employment Millions ............... .................................... 29

Table 18: Increased Costs by Business Sector ................. ...................................... 31

Table 19: Type of Vehicle Purchases per 2002 VIUS (National), Diesel Heavy-Duty

Vehicles ...........................................

................................................... ..... 31

Table 20: Medium Heavy-Duty Vehicle Price Data............... ................................... 45

Table 21: Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicle Price Data................ ..................................... 46

Table 22: Sample Individual Company Fleet Costs .............. ................................... 47iv

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: HD Conventional Sleeper Tractor Price Comparison of Truckpaper.com

and NADA...........................................

................................................... .... 5
Figure 2: Average Increased Cost for Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles in Fleets

with 4 or More Vehicles (excluding special provisio ns).............................. 6
Figure 3: Average Increased Cost for Instate Medium Heavy-Dut y Vehicles in Fleets

with 4 or More Vehicles (excluding special provisio ns).............................. 7
Figure 4: Average Increased Cost for Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles in Fleets

with 1 to 3 Vehicles (excluding low use provisions) ................................... 7
Figure 5: Average Increased Cost for Instate Medium Heavy-Dut y Vehicles in Fleets

with 1 to 3 Vehicles (excluding low use provisions) ................................... 8
Figure 6: Average Increased Cost for Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles in Fleets

with Low Mileage (Less than 7500 Miles) ............ ...................................... 8
Figure 7: Average Increased Cost for Instate Medium Heavy-Dut y Vehicles in Fleets

with Low Mileage (Less than 5000 Miles) ............ ...................................... 9
Figure 8: Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles by Fleet Age (200 6 DMV data) ....... 10
Figure 9: Instate Medium Heavy-Duty Vehicles by Fleet Age (Pe r 2006 DMV data)11
Figure 10: California International Registration (CA-IRP) Vehi cles by Fleet Age (Per

2006 DMV data)..................................... .................................................. 1 2
Figure 11: Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicle Annual Mileage............ ................................. 13
Figure 12: HHDDT Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) by Vehicle Age. .......................... 13
Figure 13: Odometer Mileage vs. Maintenance/Repair Cost Per Mi le ...................... 23
Figure 14: Percentage of Vehicle Population by Business Sector from National 2002 VIUS Data..........................................

................................................... ... 30
Figure 15: For-Hire Transport or Warehousing Vehicle Ages per 2002 VIUS

(National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles ............. ...................................... 32
Figure 16: For-Hire Transport or Warehousing Vehicle Age at Pu rchase per 2002

VIUS (National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles (>15 Ye ars is Unknown)... 33
Figure 17: Construction Vehicle Ages per 2002 VIUS (National), Diesel Heavy-Duty

Vehicles ...........................................

................................................... ..... 36
Figure 18: Construction Vehicle Age at Purchase per 2002 VIUS (National), Diesel

Heavy-Duty Vehicles (>15 Years is Unknown) ......... ............................... 36
Figure 19: Percentage of Agricultural Employment in California by Selected Major

Crop/Activity (2007 Annual Average Data) ........... ................................... 37
Figure 20: California Number of Farms by Size Group (2002 U.S. Census)............. 38
Figure 21: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, or Hunting Vehicle Ages per 2002 VIUS

(National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles ............. ...................................... 38
Figure 22: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, or Hunting Vehicle Age at Purchase per

2002 VIUS (National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles (> 15 Years is Unknown)...........................................

................................................... ... 39v

Figure 23: Agricultural Production is Shifting to Larger Farms .................................. 39
Figure 24: Retail/Wholesale Trade Vehicle Ages per 2002 VIUS ( National), Diesel

Heavy-Duty Vehicles................................ ................................................ 40
Figure 25: Retail/Wholesale Trade Vehicle Age at Purchase per 2002 VIUS

(National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles (>15 Years i s Unknown)............ 41
Figure 26: Other Services Vehicle Ages per 2002 VIUS (National ), Diesel HeavyDuty Vehicles......................................

................................................... .. 42
Figure 27: Other Services Vehicle Age at Purchase per 2002 VIU S (National), Diesel

Heavy-Duty Vehicles (>15 Years is Unknown) ......... ............................... 43J-1

APPENDIX ON COST AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

This appendix provides additional details to supple ment the chapters on the cost methodology and economic impacts on individual sect ors. Included are the detailed results of the analysis on the impacts on the Calif ornia economy and individual business sectors. Finally, additional case studies are incl uded for a number of companies.

A. Methodology for Estimating Cost and Economic Imp act

The cost and economic impacts of this regulation ar e based on the anticipated compliance paths of the affected statewide fleets. To perform this analysis, staff estimated the cost that fleets are already incurrin g under their normal vehicle replacement practices. Staff then estimated the co sts that fleets would incur to meet the requirements of the proposed regulation. The d ifference between these two numbers is the regulatory costs of staff’s proposal . These costs have been estimated for the years between 2010 and 2025.

Staff developed the ARB On-Road Compliance Model (c ost model) to estimate the capital expenditures of normal vehicle replacement during the analysis period compared to the capital expenditures required to comply with the proposed regulation over the same period. Using actual fleet data reported in t he ARB fleet survey on over 13,000 vehicles, the costs to the statewide fleets were ca lculated by predicting and evaluating the compliance paths for real individual fleets usi ng the cost model.

Staff used the cost model to analyze over 6,700 veh icles from 688 actual individual company fleets for each calendar year from 2009 to 2030, both with the regulation and without the regulation. The fleets evaluated varie d by fleet age, vehicle type and weight class, and provided a representation of in-state an d out-of-state fleets operating in California. The analysis determined the costs beyo nd those of estimated normal vehicle replacement; all costs calculated are additional co sts fleets would incur by complying with the regulation.

In addition to capital costs, various annual operat ional and maintenance costs are attributable to the regulation. Operational and ma intenance costs associated with NOx
and PM controls would include annual PM filter clea ning expenses, changes in fuel economy, urea costs for SCR systems, and costs asso ciated with regeneration of active PM systems. Potential cost savings include fuel ec onomy improvements with replacement of older vehicles with newer vehicles. In addition, companies would incur annual reporting costs when required to report to A RB. These annual costs were modeled separately and added to the capital cost es timates to arrive at an overall cost
estimate.

1. ARB fleet survey

Staff conducted a detailed fleet information survey with participation by fleet organizations and individual stakeholders. The flee t survey collected information from fleets throughout the state regarding their company business operations such as theJ-2

fleet’s primary business use categories and number of vehicles in each fleet. The survey data also includes vehicle specific informat ion for heavy-duty diesel vehicles including model year, weight ratings, and annual mi leage data. Table 1 lists the reported vehicle counts by body type.

Table 1: ARB Survey Results Number of Vehicles by B ody Type

Vehicle Body Type Count Vehicle Body Type Count Beverage HHDDT 166 Service/Utility/Mechanic MHDDT 1 43 Beverage MHDDT 579 Stake HHDDT 17

Bucket/Boom HHDDT 30 Stake MHDDT 16 Bucket/Boom MHDDT 5 Sweeper MHDDT 197 Bus - Coach HHDDT 590 Tank Truck: Asphalt HHDDT 1

Bus - Coach MHDDT 408 Tank Truck: Chemical HHDDT 69

Bus - Shuttle MHDDT 98 Tank Truck: Chemical MHDDT 2 8 Cab & Chassis HHDDT single 6 Tank Truck: Gasoline/F uel HHDDT 68

Cab & Chassis HHDDT tandem 60 Tank Truck: Gasoline/ Fuel MHDDT 7

Cab & Chassis MHDDT 16 Tank Truck: LPG HHDDT 10

Car Carrier HHDDT 2 Tank Truck: LPG MHDDT 14

Cotton Module HHDDT Tandem 23 Tank Truck: Vacuum HH DDT 6 Crane HHDDT 17 Tank Truck: Water HHDDT single 2

Crane MHDDT 1 Tank Truck: Water HHDDT tandem 138 Drill Rig HHDDT 11 Tank Truck: Water MHDDT 48 Dump HHDDT 260 Tow Truck: Roll-back HHDDT tandem 8 Dump MHDDT 76 Tow Truck: Roll-back MHDDT 13 Dump/Transfer HHDDT 92 Tow Truck: Wrecker HHDDT 17 Expeditor/Hot Shot HHDDT 2 Tow Truck: Wrecker MHDDT 21 Farm/Grain HHDDT 9 Tractor: Cab-Over HHDDT single 1 1

Farm/Grain MHDDT 9 Tractor: Cab-Over HHDDT tandem 1 26

Flatbed HHDDT 220 Tractor: Cab-Over MHDDT 5 Flatbed MHDDT 243 Tractor: Conventional HHDDT singl e 737 Flatbed-Dump HHDDT 21 Tractor: Conventional HHDDT t andem 3031 Flatbed-Dump MHDDT 15 Tractor: Conventional MHDDT 3 37 Fuel/Lube HHDDT single 4 Tractor: Sleeper HHDDT 311 Fuel/Lube HHDDT tandem 52 Van: Dry HHDDT single 11 Fuel/Lube MHDDT 13 Van: Dry HHDDT tandem 394 Garbage Trucks: Packer HHDDT 17 Van: Dry MHDDT 199 Garbage Trucks: Roll-Off HHDDT 8 Van: Moving HHDDT 2 Hooklift HHDDT 2 Van: Moving MHDDT 4 Logging HHDDT 128 Van: Reefer HHDDT 9 Mixer/Asphalt/Concrete HHDDT 108 Van: Reefer MHDDT 18

Other 3741 Winch HHDDT 1 Service/Utility/Mechanic HHDDT 79 Yard Spotter HHDD T 92J-3

Table 2 summarizes the survey responses by fleet av erage age and fleet size category. A total of 900 trucks are owned by fleets with 3 or fewer vehicles. Most were single truck owners. An additional 12,000 vehicles are ow ned by companies with more than 3 vehicles. Although not easily evident from the tabl e, the proportion of older trucks in small fleets is higher than in the larger fleets co nsistent with staff analysis of DMV data.

Table 2: Fleet Size by Average Fleet Age

Fleet Size (# of Vehicles) Fleet Age Group 1 to 3 Vehicles >3 Vehicles Total

<=3 30 71 101 >3 & <=6 49 4,093 4,142 >6 & <=10 152 3,687 3,839 >10 & <=13 118 1,904 2,022 >13 & <=16 148 1,496 1,644
>16 & <=20 132 519 651
>20 271 552 823 Totals 900 12,322 13,222

Staff also met with several individual companies an d obtained information about their normal business practices, and had meetings with va rious stakeholder groups (such as the agricultural groups, dump truck association and California Trucking Association). The meetings and survey responses confirmed trends in vehicle replacement cycles that are common for various groups. Normal vehicle replacement practices are dependent on a number of factors, but in general ar e best correlated to annual miles
traveled and how a vehicle is used.

2. Vehicle Capital Costs

To determine truck price inputs into the cost model , for sale vehicle price data was downloaded from Truckpaper.com and other online sou rces. Price curves were developed for over 50 truck body types by weight. T able 3 provides price data for the top ten types of vehicles that were reported on in the fleet survey.J-4

Table 3: Price Data for the Most Commonly Reported Vehicles in the Fleet Survey

Vehicle Type Value (new) Value

(10 Years) Value

(20 Years) Beverage MHDDT $ 55,205 $ 10,315 $6,129 Bus - Coach MHDDT $ 99,081 $ 15,866 $5,813 Bus - Coach HHDDT $ 449,954 $ 111,832 $ 18,633 Dump HHDDT $ 96,685 $ 25,852 $ 10,651 Dry Van HHDDT (Tandem) $ 98,469 $ 19,519 $8,907 Flatbed MHDDT $ 48,792 $ 14,482 $8,408 Tractor Convention MHDDT $ 61,565 $ 14,169 $7,595 Tractor Convention HHDDT (Single) $ 92,201 $ 17,119 $ 10,644 Tractor Convention HHDDT (Tandem) $ 105,151 $ 23,216 $ 16,275 Tractor Sleeper HHDDT $ 131,961 $ 22,166 $ 12,128

Staff had obtained data from the National Automobil e Dealers Association (NADA) ( http://www.nada.com/b2b/products/commerical_truck_g uide.asp ) vehicle pricing information, but data was only available for a limi ted number of vehicle types. Staff compared the NADA data for a conventional tractor a nd found that it matched favorably with for sale prices downloaded. Here, the Truckpap er.com prices are from February 29, 2008 and the NADA retail prices are from March 25, 2008. NADA price data was available for model year 1999 to 2008 and was limit ed to heavy-duty tractors, and medium-duty tractors or cab and chassis.

The price of four truck manufacturer of conventiona l sleeper tractors for each model year was averaged to determine the NADA price. The price was based on the following manufacturers, models, engine type, and transmissio n type:

• Freightliner, Century Class S/T 120” series and CS T12064ST Aero body with 13-18 speed manual transmission and 15L-16L engine with ≥ 500 horsepower

• International, 9200-9900 series and 9200i Aero bod y with 13-18 speed manual transmission and 15L-16L engine with ≥ 550 horsepower

• Mack, CHN/CXN series and CHU Aero body with 13-18 speed manual transmission

• Peterbilt 378/379/385/387 series and 379 body (389 for 2008) with 13-18 speed manual transmission and 15L-16L engine ≥ 550 horsepower

The price for a used 2007 Freightliner conventional sleeper tractor was not available from NADA. The price for new 2008 Freightliner conv entional sleeper tractor was available from NADA at $151,287. This price did not seem realistic since it was even higher than a Peterbilt 389 at $138,144.

The comparison between Truckpaper.com and NADA pric es were compared from model years 1999 through 2006 since the data was ei ther incomplete or not realistic for model years 2007 and 2008. The price difference bet ween the two sources is not significantly difference and is shown in Figure 1.J-5

Figure 1: HD Conventional Sleeper Tractor Price Com parison of

Truckpaper.com and NADA

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Years UsedTruck Price Truck Paper Data

Best Fit Curve

NADA Data

Source: Truckpaper.com. February 9, 2008. http:// www.truckpaper.com/ NADA. March 25, 2008. http://www.nada.com/

Staff also assessed whether a truck body type could be transferred to a new cab and chassis and what the costs of the body transfer wou ld be. If a body transfer is feasible and costs less than a replacement vehicle, the esti mated transfer costs for the cab and
chassis is another cost in addition to the cab and chassis price. The vehicle price data and body transfer costs used in the cost model are shown in Table 20 through Table 22.

3. Costs by Fleet Age and Fleet Size

The cost model must be run for many groups using da ta specific to the types of vehicles, fleet sizes and ages, and with the modeli ng code aligned with the various provisions for vehicle subpopulations. Subpopulatio ns by instate and out-of-state groups (see next section for more information) need to be further segregated into groups related to specific rule provisions. For example, i ndividual model runs need to be made by state inventory populations for large fleets wit h no special provisions, for small fleets with no special provisions, for vehicles with low m ileage use provisions or other special provisions (such as exemptions related to mileage, specialty vehicles, etc.).J-6

The cost associated with the “regulation run” is co mpared with the “baseline run” cost to determine any increased cost due to the proposed re gulation. The increased cost is then divided by the number of vehicles in the compa ny fleet to determine the average increased cost per vehicle. For the statewide analy sis, individual company fleet increased costs per vehicle are grouped by fleet ag e and fleet size. The average increased costs by fleet age and fleet size groups reflect that individual companies with
newer fleets will have no increased costs while com panies with older fleets will have increased costs due to the regulation. As shown in Figure 2 through Figure 7, the average increased cost per vehicle associated with the regulation varies by the average age of the fleet and depends upon the value of each vehicle.

Figure 2: Average Increased Cost for Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles in

Fleets with 4 or More Vehicles (excluding special p rovisions)

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80

0 5 10 15 20 25 Average Fleet Age (Years)Average Increased Cost (Thousands $/Vehicle)J-7

Figure 3: Average Increased Cost for Instate Medium Heavy-Duty Vehicles in

Fleets with 4 or More Vehicles (excluding special p rovisions)

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80

0 5 10 15 20 25 Average Fleet Age (Years)Average Increased Cost (Thousands $/Vehicle)

Figure 4: Average Increased Cost for Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles in

Fleets with 1 to 3 Vehicles (excluding low use prov isions)

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80

0 5 10 15 20 25

Average Fleet Age (Years)Average Increased Cost (Thousands $/Vehicle)J-8

Figure 5: Average Increased Cost for Instate Medium Heavy-Duty Vehicles in

Fleets with 1 to 3 Vehicles (excluding low use prov isions)

$- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80

- 5 10 15 20 25

Average Fleet Age (Years)Average Increased Cost (Thousands $/Vehicle)

Figure 6: Average Increased Cost for Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles in

Fleets with Low Mileage (Less than 7500 Miles)

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30

0 5 10 15 20 25

Average Fleet Age (Years)Average Increased Cost (Thousands $/Vehicle)J-9

Figure 7: Average Increased Cost for Instate Medium Heavy-Duty Vehicles in

Fleets with Low Mileage (Less than 5000 Miles)

$- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80

0 5 10 15 20 25

Average Fleet Age (Years)Average Increased Cost (Thousands $/Vehicle)

4. Scaling to Statewide Costs

The cost model output provides the average increase d cost per vehicle by fleet age and fleet size for individual company fleets (see Table 22 for sample individual company fleet annual costs). For determining the statewide costs, staff matched vehicle types to the emission inventory from real fleets who respond ed to the ARB survey. Staff used
DMV and IRP data to determine the distribution of m edium duty vehicles, heavy duty vehicles, fleet size, and fleet age distributions. The vehicle population counts were derived from statewide emissions inventory database and include the following population categories:

• Intrastate

o Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles (HHD) – Tractors

o Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles – Non Tractors

o Medium Heavy Duty (MHD) Vehicles

o Ag vehicles

• Interstate

o California International Registration Plan (CA-IRP ) Vehicles

o Out-of-state neighboring vehicles (AZ, BC, ID, NV, OR, WA)

o Out of state non-neighboring vehiclesJ-10

In addition to the statewide vehicle population gro ups, there are some additional subgroup vehicle counts needed because the regulatory requirements differ, such as for:

• Low Mileage (<7500 for HHD & <5000 for MHD) Vehicl es

• Small Fleets (1-3 Vehicles)

• Exempted Vehicles

The characteristics of the fleet and vehicle inform ation were used to match each vehicle to the emissions inventory categories. For example, a company may have some vehicles that are registered in the CA-IRP, and als o some that are medium and heavy heavy-duty vehicles that are registered instate. Ba sed on DMV instate and CA-IRP data, weighting percentages were developed by fleet age and size group to apply to the statewide emissions inventory populations to get th e vehicle counts by fleet age and size groups. The statewide cost can be calculated f or each fleet age group by multiplying the increased average cost per vehicle by the population vehicle counts.

a) Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles

To put fleet age distributions in perspective, the following figure provides statewide data showing the percentage of vehicles, by fleet age, f or instate heavy heavy-duty vehicles registered in California, per 2006 Department of Mo tor Vehicle (DMV) data. As can be seen in Figure 8, 47 percent of California heavy he avy-duty vehicles reside in individual company fleets with an average vehicle age of 6 to 13 years. Only 7 percent of the vehicles are in fleets with an average age over 20 years and 9 percent of the vehicles are in fleets with an average age of less or equal to 3 years.

Figure 8: Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles by Flee t Age (2006 DMV data)

>13 &

<=16

years
13% >20 years

7%

>6 &

<=10

years
27% >3 & <=6

years
14% <=3

years
9% >16 &

<=20

years
10%

>10 &

<=13

years
20%

b) Instate Medium Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Similar to the heavy heavy-duty, the following figu re provides statewide data showing the percentage of vehicles, by fleet age, for insta te medium heavy-duty vehicles registered in California, per 2006 DMV data. As can be seen in Figure 9, 48 percent ofJ-11

these vehicles reside in individual company fleets with an average vehicle age of over 3 to 10 years. Only 5 percent of the vehicles are in fleets with an average age over 20 years while 20 percent of the vehicles are in fleet s with an average age of less or equal to 3 years.

Figure 9: Instate Medium Heavy-Duty Vehicles by Fle et Age

(Per 2006 DMV data)

>16 &

<=20

years
7% >13 &

<=16

years
9% >20 years

5%

<=3 years

20%

>3 & <=6

years
20% >6 & <=10

years
27% >10 &

<=13

years
12%

c) Interstate Vehicles

Interstate vehicle populations include instate regi stered vehicles, neighboring out-ofstate vehicles (AZ, BC, ID, NV, OR, WA) and non-nei ghboring out-of-state vehicles. Neighboring out-of-state vehicles are expected to h ave the same vehicle age distributions as vehicles in the California Interna tional Registration Program (CA-IRP). Vehicle age distributions for the CA-IRP vehicles ( per 2006 CA-IRP registration data) are shown in Figure 10 below. Most or 52 percent of the CA-IRP vehicles reside in fleets with an average fleet age of less than or eq ual to 6 years, and only 12 percent are in fleets with an average age greater than 10 years

.J-12

Figure 10: California International Registration (C A-IRP) Vehicles by Fleet Age (Per 2006 DMV data)

>16 &

<=20

1% >13 &

<=16

2% >20

1%

<=3

17%

>3 & <=6

35% >6 & <=10

36% >10 &

<=13

8%

Interstate vehicles that are based in the mid-west and eastern states are the most likely to be newer than any other category. Non-neighborin g interstate vehicles have an average age of 3.4 years per the emissions inventor y database (in comparison to the 6 year age average of the CA-IRP vehicles), indicatin g that non-neighboring fleets are comprised mostly of very new vehicles that will alr eady exceed the regulation requirements. Fleets that have vehicles older than 6 years old would also have the ability to route only their cleaner vehicles to Cal ifornia to comply with the regulations without any significant increase in costs.

d) Annual Mileage

Per the statewide emission inventory database, heav y heavy-duty vehicles travel approximately 13.4 billion cumulative miles per yea r in California and medium heavyduty vehicles travel approximately 4.3 billion cumu lative miles in California. Figure 11 displays the percent of annual mileage travelled by vehicle population categories for heavy heavy-duty vehicles. Vehicles that operate on ly within California comprise 43 percent of the heavy heavy-duty annual miles and 99 percent of the medium heavy-duty
annual miles. Interstate and international vehicles comprise 57 percent of the heavy heavy-duty annual miles and 1 percent of the medium heavy-duty annual miles.J-13 Figure 11: Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicle Annual Mileage

Instate Single

7.93%

Instate Tractor

24.22%

Other Instate

11.05%

CA-IRP

19.26% Neighboring Out-of-State

9.18%Non-Neighboring Out-ofState

28.36%

As displayed in Figure 12, the CAIRP vehicles trave l the highest percentage of the total annual miles travelled by CAIRP vehicles at t he age of 3 years and then the
miles travelled decrease over time as the vehicles are sold into other types of instate and out-of-state fleets, or are retired. After the age of 13 years, the annual miles travelled by the instate tractor and single (non-tr actor) vehicles decreases significantly as the population declines and indivi dual vehicle annual miles travel decreases. The annual miles travelled for vehicles over the age of 25 years are only 0.1 percent of the CAIRP miles, 1.2 percent of the non-tractor miles and 1.8 percent of the tractor miles.

Figure 12: HHDDT Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) by V ehicle Age

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00%

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2 9 30
Vehicle Age% of Miles Travelled T7 CAIRP T7 Single

T7 TractorJ-14 e) Sample Results

Table 4 shows sample results for the heavy heavy-du ty vehicles subject to the large fleet requirements that would not qualify for any o f the special provisions. The DMV data provides the weighting percentages (similar to the prior pie chart figure with all fleet sizes) to apply to the total vehicles from the stat ewide emissions inventory to get the number of vehicles by fleet age groups.

Table 4: Instate Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicles by Fleet Age for Large Fleets (excluding special provisions)

Fleet Age # Vehicles (Per

Updated Emissions Inventory for 2008) % (per 2006 DMV Data) $/Vehicle (Per

Model Output) Statewide $

<=3 5,772 12.3% $ - $ -

>3 & <=6 7,933 17.0% $ 7,688 $ 60,989,901

>6 & <=10 13,567 29.0% $ 13,981 $189,692,574

>10 & <=13 8,765 18.8% $ 20,274 $177,705,029

>13 & <=16 6,126 13.1% $ 25,668 $157,242,209

>16 & <=20 3,003 6.4% $ 31,961 $ 95,972,700

>20 1,372 2.9% $ 40,052 $ 54,939,191

Unknown 209 0.4% $ 15,756 $ 3,286,004

46,750 100.0% $739,827,609

Overall Average $/Vehicle $ 15,827

The statewide cost estimate for this sub-population can then be estimated by multiplying the number of vehicles by the increased $/vehicle f or each age group and summing the statewide $ per fleet age. In the above example, th e highest increased costs due to the regulation are found in the >20 fleet age category with an average $/vehicle of $40,052 and the least cost increases due to the regulation are found in the three or fewer fleet age category with no average increased costs. Mediu m duty vehicles and vehicles qualifying for the special provisions including low use vehicles would have separate population counts and lower costs.

Similar analysis is done for all the remaining popu lation categories including:

• Low mileage vehicles (by MHD and HHD groups)

• Higher use instate HHD vehicles for small fleets

• Higher use instate MHD vehicles (by small & non-sm all fleets)

• Higher use CA-IRP and neighboring out-of-state veh icles (by small & nonsmall fleets)

• Bus Fleets (by MHD and HHD)

• Non-Neighboring out-of-state vehicles

• Low mileage and specialty agricultural vehicles (s pecial provisions)

Other populations that have differing requirements and are modeled separately include:J-15

• School Buses (PM only)

• Ag Fleets

• Cranes

• Sweepers

5. Annual Costs

In addition to capital costs of the proposed regula tion, various annual operational and
maintenance costs will also be incurred. In determi ning the total regulatory costs of staff’s proposal, these annual costs are added to t he total statewide capital cost estimates. Operational and maintenance costs associ ated with PM DECS include annual filter cleaning expenses, fuel economy losse s and costs associated with regeneration of active systems. Other costs or savi ngs include fuel economy improvements with replacement of older vehicles wit h newer vehicles and urea costs for SCR. At this time, staff has not included anticipat ed cost savings associated with lower maintenance and less down time by fleets having new er vehicles as compared to having older vehicles.

The operating and maintenance costs associated with the use of PM DECS are determined using the anticipated population of vehi cles equipped with aftermarket PM controls, as well as the population of 2007 and new er engines. The number of PM controls in each calendar year was estimated by ext rapolating the results of the capital cost model to the affected vehicle population.

Operating and maintenance costs attributable to the proposed regulation were broken into four main categories: regeneration cost for ac tive DPFs, changes in fuel economy, urea usage, and annual maintenance. Regeneration co sts for active filters are incurred for electricity or fuel usage for a vehicle to rege nerate the filters on a regular basis.
Annual maintenance costs for vehicles with PM contr ol devices are for the cleaning servicing of the filters by external parties. Engin es manufactured after 2009 with SCR
would also have annual costs associated with the us e of urea. Also, there is likely to be a fuel economy improvement and associated cost savi ngs through the use of 2004- 2006 MY engines utilizing EGR.

a) Annual Retrofit Costs

When calculating the statewide costs, additional co sts due to retrofits were also incorporated. These costs included:

• Regeneration costs due to active retrofits

• Maintenance costs due to yearly filter cleanings r equired

• Fuel costs associated with the 2 percent fuel pena lty per retrofit

i. Regeneration Costs

Staff expects the majority of diesel emission contr ol systems will use active fuel-based systems to regenerate in order to avoid the need to plug in because most vehicles, suchJ-16

as dump trucks, may not have on the job access to e lectricity or the extended time for a full electricity-based regeneration cycling. Electr icity-based regenerating may remain commonplace in day-use only applications where the vehicle returns to the same facility each night, such as school bus fleets. Diesel emiss ion control systems contain sensors that permit operators to anticipate the majority of regenerations. Subsequently, regenerations can take place during non business ho urs with no impact on productivity. Given the close comparison of cost between the two technologies, staff used fuel-based filters exclusively in its analysis. To estimate th e number of in-use active diesel emission control systems the retrofit population was scaled by the weighted in-state percentage of pre-1994 medium heavy-duty and heavy heavy-duty vehicles, which is 15 percent of the population. Based on 2 regenerations per week a t a quarter hour of down time per regeneration and 0.2 gallon of fuel burned per rege neration the total cost to the statewide fleet is $181.7 million at a rate of $3.6 9 per gallon of diesel. At $4.00 per gallon the cost would increase to $182.3 million an d at $5.00 per gallon the price would be $184.2 million. The cost estimates are insensiti ve to fuel prices because the down time costs represent a vast majority of the total c ost estimate.

ii. Maintenance Costs

In 2010 through 2013, the proposed regulations woul d require the installation of diesel particulate matter filters (DPFs) on existing vehic les. After 2013 all vehicles would have
PM filters and the total number decreases as vehicl es are retired. By 2021, nearly all pre-2007 vehicles would be phased out and no afterm arket PM retrofits would remain in
use. The estimated number of retrofits in the stat ewide fleet is shown in Table 5.J-17

Table 5: Total Number of Aftermarket and Originally Equipped DPFS

Calendar Year Number of Aftermarket
DPFs Increased Number of

Engines with OEM equipped DPF
2010 11,700 7,675 2011 35,152 16,345 2012 136,233 69,090 2013 154,240 81,306 2014 139,120 70,222 2015 113,955 72,013 2016 79,053 87,528 2017 50,929 96,517 2018 48,725 83,895 2019 45,823 82,317 2020 0 93,663 2021 0 87,647 2022 0 80,011 2023 0 67,356 2024 0 57,259 2025 0 53,791

Staff has conservatively estimated that each retrof it will result in maintenance costs of about $400 per year for PM filters (ARB 2003; ARB 2 006a; ARB 2007). Using this estimate, the total statewide costs due to retrofit maintenance was calculated using Equation 1 in 2008 equivalent dollars.

Equation 1: Total Maintenance Costs = Σ [maintenance cost/year per vehicle x # of vehicles in the state retrofitted]

The total increased in maintenance costs for the st atewide fleet from 2010 to 2025 is estimated at 516 million (in 2008 equivalent dollar s), as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Cumulative Increased Retrofit Maintenance Costs ($2008)

Per Filter Costs Cumulative Costs (millions $) OEM equipped DPFs $ 275
Aftermarket DPFs $ 241
TOTAL $ 516

iii. Fuel Costs

The statewide fleet uses over 3 billion gallons of diesel fuel per year for California miles traveled at an average cost of approximately $4.00 per gallon (CEC 2008). Fleets reported vehicle fuel usage and miles traveled in t he fleet survey. Statewide inventoryJ-18

data (including vehicle miles traveled) was used to compute fuel penalty costs associated with particulate matter filters and fuel efficiency offsets from vehicle replacements using the fuel usage rates in Table 7.

Table 7: Fuel usage rates

Model
Year MPG for

HHD MPG for

MHD

<1988 5.200 6.916
1988-1990 5.388 7.165
1991-1993 5.575 7.415
1994-1995 5.763 7.664
1996-1998 5.950 7.914
1999-2002 5.480 7.288
2003-2006 5.750 7.648
2007 5.610 7.461
2008 5.590 7.435
2009 5.580 7.421
2010 5.780 7.687
2011 5.780 7.687
>2011 5.800 7.714

The total statewide costs from 2010 to 2025 due to increased fuel consumption from the 2 percent fuel penalty in vehicles with aftermarket retrofits installed is a total of approximately $113 million in 2008 equivalent dolla rs. The total statewide offset from 2010 to 2025 due to decreased fuel consumption from the increased fuel efficiencies from vehicle replacements is a total of approximate ly $126 million in 2008 equivalent
dollars. Thus there is a net reduction in costs ant icipated of approximately $13 million at a rate of $4.00 per gallon. At a rate of $3.69 per gallon, the net reduction in costs drop to $12.2 million and at a rate of $5.00 per gallon the net reduction in costs increase to $16.5 million.

The proposed regulation will also accelerate the re placement of existing vehicles to newer vehicles that utilize SCR technology. The res ult is an increased number of vehicles in the statewide fleet that have SCR relat ive to what would occur without the proposed regulation. SCR technology utilizes urea t o reduce NOx emissions, so an additional cost will be realized. It is expected th at after 2023, the increased number of vehicles having SCR because of the accelerated vehi cle replacement requirement will slowly decrease as the statewide fleet returns to n ormal vehicle replacement cycles. Projecting in 2008 equivalent dollars, and consider ing urea costs of $4.00 per gallon and that urea consumption in SCR is expected to be about 3 percent of the diesel fuel used, the estimated cost is approximately $240 mill ion.J-19 iv. Cost for Reporting

For small fleets, initial reporting will cost betwe en $0 and $ 100 (for up to 2 hours needed to compile fleet data). This assumes a cost of $50/hr for either work time lost, or a hired consultant. For large fleets, the cost will be between $200 and $400 (assuming an average of 4 to 8 hours to compile larger fleet data).

For estimating the total statewide costs, the numbe r of fleets present in the state was estimated using 2006 DMV and CA-IRP data with the n umber of registered vehicles grouped by fleet size bins. The number of fleets wa s calculated by using Equation 2.

Equation 2: Fleets in State = Σ [Registered Vehicles / Fleet Size]

Per 2006 DMV data for instate heavy heavy-duty, med ium heavy-duty and CAIRP vehicle populations, there are approximately 171,50 0 company fleets. There are approximately 156,000 small fleets with less than 4 vehicles and there are approximately 15,500 large fleets in California. Ex cluding single owner fleet trucks that would only have a vehicle with a model year of 2007 or greater in 2010, the revised estimate for small fleets would be 138,000. Out of state vehicles will be minimally impacted as the majority of out-of-state fleets are comprised of newer vehicles and are ahead of the proposed requirements.

Fleets using the BACT compliance schedule would not need to report in the years they use this method of compliance. For the reporting co sts calculations, it is estimated that approximately 75 percent of the fleets would be rep orting in any given year as reflected in Equation 3.

Equation 3: Fleet initial reporting costs = # of fl eets x 75% x average initial

reporting costs

In 2008 dollars, the statewide cost for company fle ets initial reporting in 2010 is shown
in Table 8.

Table 8: Initial Reporting Costs (2010)

Fleet Type Cost ($2008)
Millions Small fleet $11.4 Large fleet $ 5.1 Total cost for initial reporting $16.5

The annual reporting costs for small fleets will be approximately $50 per fleet per year, assuming that on average one hour is needed to upda te the fleet in the ARB reporting system. For a large fleet, the cost is estimated to be $200 per fleet per year, assuming that on average, 4 hours is needed to update the fl eet in the ARB reporting system. The 4 hours for large fleets is based on a weighted ave rage using estimating 1.5 hours forJ-20

fleets with 4 to 5 vehicles, 2 hours for fleets wit h 6 to 10 vehicles, 4 hours for fleets with
11 to 20 vehicles and 20 hours for fleets with over 20 vehicles. The total cost per year for small fleet reporting will be 75 percent of the number of fleets multiplied by $50, or $5,175,000. For a large fleet, the cost per year wi ll be 75 percent of the number of fleets multiplied by $200, or $2,325,000.

The reporting costs over the life of the regulation were calculated using Equation 4, assuming that for all fleets reporting ends in 2022

.

Equation 4: Total annual reporting cost = Σ [Annual reporting cost x NPV (for

every year of reporting)]

The total annual reporting cost over the life of th e regulation is shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Total Annual Reporting Costs

Fleet Type Cost ($2008)
Millions Small fleet $41.6 Large fleet $18.7 Total cost for annual reporting $60.3

The total costs for reporting are the initial and a nnual reporting costs in 2008 dollars (Table 10).

Table 10: Total Reporting Costs

Fleet Type Cost ($2008)
Millions Small fleet $53.0 Large fleet $23.8 Total cost for reporting $76.8

6. Total Costs

Statewide, there are a number of different types of fleet vehicles that will experience
different costs:

• Large fleets – all PM and NOx requirements:

o Medium heavy duty vehicles Instate,

o Heavy heavy-duty vehicles instate,

o CAIRP Vehicles,

o Motor Coach Bus Fleets,

o Neighboring out of state vehicles,

o Far out of state vehicles.

• Small fleets - alternative schedule for requiremen ts per vehicle for fleets with less
than 4 vehicles.

• Low Mileage fleet vehicles – PM only requirements until 2020.J-21

• Port Trucks – must replace 2007MY vehicles by end of 2020.

• School Buses - PM only requirements completing in 2013.

• Low mileage and specialty agricultural vehicles (s pecial provisions).

• Utility Fleets

• Two Engine Cranes

• Sweepers

The statewide fleet inventory for 2008 includes app roximately 220,000 medium heavyheavy duty vehicles, more than 695,000 heavy heavy- duty vehicles and approximately 25,000 buses that conduct business in California. T his includes vehicles that also operate in other states including California. Over 940,000 of the statewide fleet inventory vehicles are in fleets that could be subj ect to provisions in the proposed regulations.

The results of multiplying the number of vehicles f or each fleet type by the costs per
vehicle are shown in Table 11. This table also inco rporates reporting costs for company fleets to comply with the rule including the initia l reporting costs and the total annual reporting costs. Retrofit costs for annual maintena nce and a 2 percent fuel penalty are also included. The reporting and retrofit costs are discussed above in this document.

Table 11: Total Statewide Compliance Costs (2008$)

Fleet/Population Type Total Cost (Millions) # Vehicles

Instate MHD Fleets - Small $399 77,739
Instate MHD Fleets - >3 Vehicles $565 88,522 Instate MHD - Low Mileage $122 32,264
MHD CAIRP & Out-of-State $46 8,896
Instate HHD Fleets - Small $432 37,097
Instate HHD Fleets - >3 Vehicles $740 46,754 HHD - Low Mileage* $142 25,841
HHD Buses $252 7,211
MHD Buses $26 2,763
CA-IRP - Small $156 25,126 CA-IRP - >3 Vehicles $343 32,273 Neighboring States - Small $48 7,773 Neighboring States - >3 Vehicles $339 31,928 Non-Neighboring $471 225,328 Non-Neighboring - <1000 Miles $0 225,329 Agricultural MHD Fleets - Mid Miles $30 1,946 Agricultural MHD Fleets - High Miles $30 1,750 Agricultural MHD Fleets - Exempt $0 5,742 Agricultural HHD Fleets - Mid Miles $30 1,442 Agricultural HHD Fleets - High Miles $108 4,099 Agricultural HHD Fleets - Exempt $0 6,459J-22

Port Trucks $106 21,650 School Buses $69 16,469 Two Engine Cranes $0 2,113 Utility Fleets $4 4,154 Reporting Costs $77 n/a Operating Costs $928 n/a
Grand Total $5,461 940,667 *Includes CA-IRP, Neighboring States, Instate HHD

For most fleets, the costs are highest in 2012-2013 and lowest in 2014. In general, businesses with newer fleets and lower proportions of equipment subject to other ARB rules will have little to no cost impacts to absorb . Businesses with significantly older fleets and higher proportions of equipment subject to other ARB rules will have higher cost impacts to absorb or pass on.

7. Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Costs

In staff’s analysis, the cost estimates are conserv ative because cost savings for truck replacements to newer more reliable trucks with low er operating costs were not included. In meeting with individual fleets, and e valuating the impact on cash flow, income and total debt load, staff did consider thes e factors. Cost savings per for newer vehicles is dependent on a number of factors includ ing vehicle weight class and use of the vehicles. The importance of the cost savings i s greater for vehicles that travel more miles and less important for those that operate rel atively few miles. The following discussion shows how significant repair and mainten ance costs can be.

Figure 13 shows maintenance and repair cost of 6 co nventional without sleeper tandem
drive axle class 8 tractors. All tractors were new and 4 were place into service in year 2000 and 2 in year 2003. The tractors are typicall y driven by two drivers per day normally 5 to 5.5 days per week at a maximum of 1,0 00 miles per day and averaged about 170,000 miles per year. The duty cycle is ra ted as high in which these trucks operate regionally and average 4.95 miles per gallo n. A long haul tractor that runs between Seattle and San Diego on the Interstate 5 c orridor normally average closer miles per gallon. The maintenance cost portion inc luded brakes, tires and other preventative maintenance repairs. The repair cost portion was the labor cost to perform non-routine or preventative maintenance repairs at a shop rate of $100 per hour.

For example, a new truck driven 100,000 miles (begi nning odometer reading = 0) in the first year would expect $0.038 per mile maintenance and repair cost of $3,800 for year one. If in the fourth year the same truck continue s traveling another 100,000 miles (ending odometer reading = 400,000 miles) and $0.07 6 maintenance cost or $15,248 for year four.J-23

Figure 13: Odometer Mileage vs. Maintenance/Repair Cost Per Mile

$0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,40 0,000

Odometer ReadingMaintenance Cost Per Mile ($2007)

B. Industry Groups

The impact of the proposed regulation on each busin ess sector will depend on the number and types of vehicles that are impacted and the fleet ages for each business sector. A comparison of the California Gross Domest ic Product (GDP) dollars for these same time periods provides an indication of the rat e increases that would be needed for each industry group as a whole. The GDP projections are based on normal historical growth patterns.

As seen in Table 12 below using VIUS 2002 business categories (VIUS 2002), the transportation industry would incur the highest cos ts in relation to their GDP with an average increase of 0.07 percent needed in GDP over 2010-2025 to absorb the costs. The increased rule costs would be highest for the T ransportation industry in 2012. The construction industry would need an average increas e of 0.03 percent in GDP over 2010-2025 to absorb costs. Since the construction i ndustry has experienced a downturn, primarily in the residential sector, for sensitivity purposes this analysis was also examined using no growth projections for GDP, resulting in the need for an average increase of 0.06 percent in GDP over 2010-2 025 to absorb costs of the construction industry. Most industries would experi ence the highest cost year in 2013.J-24

Table 12: Increased Capital Costs as a Percentage o f California Gross
Domestic Product

Business Type per 2002 VIUS for Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles Total from
2010-2025 Maximum

Year

Accommodation or Food Services 0.0061% 0.022% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, or Hunting 0.0257% 0.082% Arts, Entertainment or Recreation Services 0.0027% 0.007%
Construction 0.0503% 0.116% For-Hire Transportation or Warehousing 0.0958% 0.325% Manufacturing 0.0013% 0.005% Mining 0.0450% 0.148%
Other Services 0.0111% 0.021%
Retail & Wholesale Trade 0.0046% 0.013%
Utilities 0.0005% 0.000%
TOTALS 0.0144% 0.044%

1. The E-DRAM Model

ARB Staff assessed the overall impact that the prop osed regulation could potentially have on the California economy using the Environmen tal-Dynamic Revenue Analysis Model (E-DRAM). The E-DRAM is a model of the Califo rnia economy, developed by the University of California, Berkeley. The ARB has use d the E-DRAM to assess the economic impacts of several major regulations and p lans.

The E-DRAM describes the flow of dollars among Cali fornia producers, California households, California governments, and the rest of the world. Data for the 120 industrial sectors originate from the U.S. Departme nt of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and are based on the Census of Bu siness—a detailed survey of U.S. companies conducted every five years. The surv ey contains information about intermediate purchases, factor (labor, capital, lan d, and entrepreneurship) payments, and taxes. National data are disaggregated to a Cal ifornia level using a combination of state-level employment data and estimates from the Department of Finance’s econometric modeling. The model is updated as indus trial data becomes available and the current version of the model is based on the in dustrial data obtained in 2003.

Household income data come from the California Fran chise Tax Board Personalincome Tax “sanitized” sample. Data on consumption by income class are derived from national survey data. Government sector data are cu lled from published federal, state, and local government reports.

a) Annualized Costs of Compliance

The annualized cost of the proposed regulatory meas ure is the basic input to the EDRAM. The Policy Scenario is implemented in the mod el by increasing the total amount spent by the affected sectors in the Vehicle Manufa cturing sector by a total of $556J-25

Million. The vehicle manufacturing sector in the E- DRAM model includes the Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturing sector (NAICS 33612). The impacts were estimated for the year 2013, which represents the year with the great est increase in spending. Costs to the specific sectors are indicated in Table 13.

. Table 13: 2013 Sector Cost Allocations

Sector NAICS 2013 Annualized Cost

Accommodation and Food Services 72 $15,120,984 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 11 $41,440,107
Arts, Entertainment or Recreation Services 71 $1,945,808

Construction 23 $117,081,446 Transportation and Warehousing 48-49 $182,115,623 Manufacturing 31-33 $18,899,204 Mining 21 $17,723,411

Motor Coach Bus Lines* 485, 5324 $43,223,763

Other Services Many $9,432,622

Wholesale and Retail Trade 42,44-45 $55,717,069

Schools* 4854 $26,044,209

Utilities 22 - Vehicle Leasing or Rental* 5321 $37,073,903

Total $565,818,151 * These sectors are treated as part of Transportation and Warehousing in the analysis described below.

The E-DRAM consists of 120 industrial sectors which means that the costs detailed in Table 13 need to be further apportioned among these 120 sectors. This cost apportionment was done proportionally, based on eac h sectors share of spending in the Vehicle Manufacturing sector established in the mod els’ 2003 dataset. The Vehicle Manufacturing sector is broad enough that it likely includes vehicle types that would not be affected by this regulation. The effect of the p roportional apportionment would mean that some sectors that would not be affected by thi s regulation are being affected to

some extent.

As indicated in Table 13, the costs to the Transpor tation and Warehousing sector are a substantial share of the total costs of this regula tion. The Transportation and Warehousing sector is made up of nine individual se ctors in E-DRAM, some of which may not be affected by this regulation. To get some idea of the effects of misallocating costs, two different cost allocation scenarios were analyzed.

The first assumes that costs are proportional to sp ending in the Vehicle Manufacturing sector, as described above. The second tried to be more explicit about which sector would bear the brunt of the costs. These two scenar ios are displayed below.J-26 Table 14: Allocation of Transportation and Warehous ing

Transportation and Warehousing NAICS Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Air Transportation 481, 488 0% 0% Other Transportation 486, 488, 5324 13% 0% Public Transportation (Motor Coach Bus Lines and Schools) 485 2% 15% Railroad Transportation 482, 488 2% 0% Transportation 49 15% 0% Truck Transportation 484 42% 60% Vehicle Transportation (Includes Vehicle Leasing or Rental) 485, 487, 488, 5321 23% 25% Waterway Transportation 483, 488 4% 0%

b) State Level Economic Impacts

The proposed plan will require increased spending f or vehicle replacements. Increased spending by the affected sectors will directly incr eases the cost of producing goods and services and therefore the prices of goods and serv ices in these sectors. Price changes will in turn have secondary effects on other sector s of the California economy. Using EDRAM model, it is possible to estimate the net effe cts of the proposed regulatory plan on the aggregate California economy.

Table 15 summarizes the impacts of the proposed reg ulation on the California economy for the year 2013. Changes are all relative to the Business as Usual case. For Scenario 1, the results of analysis indicate the state outpu t would be reduced by about $1.3 billion (0.04 percent), and personal income would increase by roughly $500 million (0.02 percent) in 2013. California employment would be re duced by 13,600 (less than 0.08 percent) in 2013. Therefore, the impacts of the pro posed regulation are small compared to the growth that is expected to occur in Californ ia over the next few years.

For Scenario 2, the results of analysis indicate th e state output would be reduced by about $1.3 billion (0.04 percent), and personal inc ome would decrease by roughly $600 million (0.02 percent) in 2013. California employme nt would be reduced by 4,600 (less than 0.03 percent) in 2013. Therefore, the impacts of the proposed regulation are small compared to the growth that is expected to occur in California over the next few years.

Table 15: Economic Impacts of the Proposed Regulati on on the California Economy in 2013

Business as
Usual Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Real State Output (billions of 2008 dollars) 3,104 3,103 3,102

Personal Income (billions of 2008 dollars) 1,800 1, 800 1,799

Income Per Capita (thousands of 2008 dollars) 44.13 44.15 44.13

Employment (thousands of jobs) 17.63 17.62 17.63

Total Imports (billions of 2008 dollars) 2,417 2,41 8 2,417J-27

Total Exports (billions of 2008 dollars) 2,359 2,35 8 2,358

Percent Change from Business as Usual

Real State Output (billions of 2008 dollars) - -0.0 4% -0.04%

Personal Income (billions of 2008 dollars) - 0.02% -0.02%

Income Per Capita (thousands of 2008 dollars) - 0.0 5% -0.01%

Employment (thousands of jobs) - -0.08% -0.03%

Total Imports (billions of 2008 dollars) - 0.04% 0. 01%

Total Exports (billions of 2008 dollars) - -0.02% - 0.02%

A source of uncertainty in the E-DRAM analysis is t he industry data that the model is dependent upon. The model uses data for 2003 and th e data are extrapolated to future years based on growth forecasts from the California Department of finance and the UCLA Anderson School of Business. These growth rate s apply to all E-DRAM sectors. If the affected sectors grow faster than the rate u sed in E-DRAM, this analysis would overstate the relative impact of the regulation. Co nversely, if sector growth is slower than anticipated, this analysis would understate th e relative impact of the regulation.

c) Sector Economic Impacts

A model such as E-DRAM is most useful for character izing economic impacts at the state level. It can also be informative at the sect or level with the understanding that some sector details that may be important in charac terizing how producers will respond to a policy change may not be fully reflected in th e model.

Table 16 and Table 17 reports sector level changes. Again, the overall effects are small and largely consistent across both costs allocation scenarios. There is one noticeable effect for employment within the Trucking and Wareh ousing sector. With a general apportionment (Scenario 1) Railroad Transportation sees substantial change in employment. This effect is not seen in Scenario 2, where the total Trucking and Warehousing costs are shared among the Truck Transp ortation, Public Transportation and Vehicle Transportation sectors. In fact, the to tal employment change for Trucking and Warehousing is substantially reduced in Scenari o 2.

Table 16: Sector Change in Real State Output Billio ns of 2008 dollars

Sector Business as
Usual Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 94 94 94

Mining 28 28 28

Construction 141 140 140

Utilities 62 62 62

Manufacturing 819 818 818

Transportation and Warehousing 94 93 93J-28

Wholesale and Retail Trade 402 402 402

Arts, Entertainment or Recreation Services 49 49 49

Accommodation and Food Services 93 93 93

Other Services 1,323 1,323 1,323

Grand Total 3,104 3,103 3,102

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing - -0.10% -0.10%

Mining - -0.10% -0.11%

Construction - -0.15% -0.15%

Utilities - -0.07% 0.02%

Manufacturing - -0.05% -0.05%

Transportation and Warehousing - -0.38% -0.22%

Wholesale and Retail Trade - -0.01% -0.03%

Arts, Entertainment or Recreation Services - 0.04% 0.01%

Accommodation and Food Services - -0.02% -0.02%

Other Services - -0.01% -0.02%

Grand Total - -0.04% -0.04%J-29 Table 17: Sector Change in Employment Millions

Sector Business as
Usual Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.43 0.43 0.43
Mining 0.03 0.03 0.03

Construction 0.89 0.89 0.89

Utilities 0.06 0.06 0.06
Manufacturing 1.96 1.96 1.96
Transportation and Warehousing 0.48 0.47 0.48

Wholesale and Retail Trade 2.58 2.58 2.58

Arts, Entertainment or Recreation Services 0.26 0.26 0.26

Accommodation and Food Services 1.33 1.33 1.33

Other Services 6.27 6.27 6.27

Grand Total 14.29 14.28 14.29

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing - -0.09% -0.10%

Mining - 0.01% 0.00%

Construction - -0.14% -0.15%

Utilities - -0.06% 0.02%

Manufacturing - -0.06% -0.05%

Transportation and Warehousing - -2.51% -0.18%

Wholesale and Retail Trade - -0.01% -0.03%

Arts, Entertainment or Recreation Services - 0.09% 0.03%

Accommodation and Food Services - -0.01% -0.02%

Other Services - 0.00% -0.01%

Grand Total - -0.11% -0.04%

2. Diesel Vehicles by Business Type

The impact of the proposed regulation on each busin ess sector will depend on the number and types of vehicles that are impacted and the fleet ages for each business sector. Figure 14 summarizes the National 2002 VIU S data by the percent of the vehicle population to business type for heavy heavy -duty and medium heavy-duty diesel
trucks.J-30

Figure 14: Percentage of Vehicle Population by Busi ness Sector from National 2002 VIUS Data

Heavy Duty Vehicles Medium-Duty Vehicles

Vehicle Leasing or

Rental

5%

Manufacturing & Mining

8% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, or Hunting

16%

Other

Services

12%

Construction

22% Retail &

Wholesale

Trade

10%

For-Hire Transportation

or Warehousing

27% Vehicle Leasing or

Rental

9%

For-Hire Transportation

or Warehousing

19% Retail &

Wholesale

Trade

19% Construction

18%

Other Services

19% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, or Hunting

10%

Manufacturing & Mining

6%

The total in-state heavy heavy-duty and medium heav y-duty inventory vehicle population’s were multiplied by the appropriate Nat ional 2002 VIUS vehicle percentages for each industry sector type to get the total numb er of vehicles allocated to each industry by weight class. The in-state annual oper ating and reporting costs were apportioned to each industry sector based on the an nual miles travelled for each industry sector, as per the 2002 VIUS national data . The increased costs by sector are
summarized below in Table 18.J-31 Table 18: Increased Costs by Business Sector

Business Sector Increased Capital Costs (in millions of $2008) Annual Costs

(in millions of $2008) Total Increased

Costs (in
millions of $2008)
Accommodation or Food Services $ 83.5 $ 14.7 $ 98 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, or Hunting $ 197.7 $ 68.0 $ 266 Arts, Entertainment or Recreation Services $ 14.0 $ 0.9 $ 15 Construction $ 960.1 $ 100.4 $1,061 For-Hire Transportation or Warehousing $1,359.0 $ 4 86.2 $1,845 Manufacturing $ 124.9 $ 43.3 $ 168
Mining $ 117.1 $ 20.1 $ 137
Other Services $ 84.6 $ 48.5 $ 133
Retail & Wholesale Trade $ 401.3 $ 105.5 $ 507

Utilities $ 3.9 $ 10.2 $ 14 Vehicle Leasing or Rental $ 207.9 $ 71.1 $ 279

TOTALS $3,554.0 $ 968.9 $4,523

This industry sector cost analysis computes the inc reased capital costs for vehicles registered in-state and does not include costs to o ut-of-state fleets. However, staff expects the majority of costs to out-of-state fleet s to be borne by the transportation and warehousing sector.

Table 19: Type of Vehicle Purchases per 2002 VIUS ( National), Diesel HeavyDuty Vehicles

HHDDT Purchases MHDDT Purchases

Business Group New
Vehicles Used

Vehicles New

Vehicles Used

Vehicles

Accommodation or Food Services 65.3% 34.7% 83.2% 16.8% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, or Hunting 16.6% 83.4% 21.1% 78.9% Arts, Entertainment or Recreation Services 26.1% 73.9% 24.0% 76.0%

Construction 32.8% 67.2% 38.0% 62.0% For-Hire Transportation or Warehousing 56.2% 43.8% 67.1% 32.9%

Information Services 56.3% 43.8% 90.1% 9.9% Manufacturing 61.2% 38.8% 56.9% 43.1% Mining 37.1% 62.9% 42.8% 57.2%

Other Services 52.5% 47.5% 54.2% 45.8%

Retail Trade 61.1% 38.9% 63.0% 37.0%

Utilities 49.5% 50.5% 70.0% 30.0% Vehicle Leasing or Rental 86.9% 13.1% 87.8% 12.2% Waste Mgmt, Landscaping or Admin/Support Services 56.7% 43.3% 47.4% 52.6%

Wholesale Trade 65.7% 34.3% 70.6% 29.4%J-32

C. For-Hire Transportation or Warehousing

ARB fleet survey data submitted by 179 companies wi th a total of 1,712 vehicles included 6.0% low mileage vehicles that would have delayed replacement requirements and almost no very low mileage vehicles that would be exempt from the cleanup requirements. These fleets had a median fleet age o f 11.0 years.

As displayed in Figure 15 and Figure 16, the vast m ajority of vehicles in this industry sector are purchased new; approximately 62% of the vehicles are less than 7 years old and only 38% of these vehicles remain after the age of 10 years. The average U.S. tractor travels 65,000 miles each year and typicall y accrues more than 500,000 miles before being replaced.

Figure 15: For-Hire Transport or Warehousing Vehicl e Ages per 2002 VIUS

(National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles

0 to 3 Years

41%

3 to 6 Years

21% 7 to 10 Years

20% 11 to 13 Years

8% 14 to 15 Years

4% >15 Years

6%J-33

Figure 16: For-Hire Transport or Warehousing Vehicl e Age at Purchase per 2002 VIUS (National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles (>15 Ye ars is Unknown)

<3 Years

86.8% 3 to 6 Years

7.8% 7 to 10

Years

3.9% 11 to 15

Years

1.6%

1. Small Fleet Case Study

A California company has 3 flatbed tractor and trai ler combinations for hauling various goods. The oldest vehicle is a 1995 model year whic h travels about 15,000 miles per year. A 2001 and a 2000 model year vehicle both tra vel about 95,000 miles per year, and over half of these miles are in California. The company has 1 employee, annual revenue of between $250,000 to $500,000 and assets valued at about $2 million. On average, this company would replace a vehicle every 6 years with a new to 3 year old vehicle. Staff modeled that replacement would be wi th a 1 year old vehicle.

The proposed regulation would require replacing two of the vehicles earlier than normal. The 1995 model year vehicle would get replaced as n ormal with a 2010 model year vehicle in the year 2011. The 2000 model year vehic le would get replaced 4 years earlier than normal in 2013 instead of 2017. And th e 2001 model year vehicle would be replaced 8 years earlier than normal in 2015 instea d of 2023.

For this company, staff estimates the increased cos ts to comply with the proposed regulation would be about $28,000 above what would normally be spent for vehicle replacements from 2010 to 2025 ($2008). This compar es to about $157,000 that would normally be spent for capital upgrades over this ti me period. Annual revenues for this company estimated at $375,000 are cumulatively proj ected to be $4.6 million in 2008 equivalent dollars over the same time period. To of fset the increased capital costs of these regulations, this fleet would need to increas e revenue by about 0.6 percent. To substantially lower the upfront capital investment, the fleet could have purchased a used 3 to 5 year old vehicle in 2015 instead of a new ve hicle. This would lower the capital investment considerably. In this example the fleet owner would have fully met the 2023 goals of the regulation 8 years early and would hav e no additional requirements.J-34

2. Fuel Transport Case Study

A fuel company owns 12 vehicles with an average fle et age of 4.6 years and annual revenue of approximately $15,000,000. There are 2 h eavy heavy-duty Tank Trucks, 6 heavy heavy-duty Tractors, and 4 medium heavy-duty Tank Trucks with 73,000 average miles per truck. The company reported a total of 26 trucks and the remaining 14 vehicles are outside of the scope of the proposed r egulation.

Because this fleet typically replaces its vehicles within 10 years, it would likely accelerate their vehicle replacements by a few year s to avoid filter retrofits. For this fleet, they would replace most vehicles as normal, but would replace the vehicles that would normally be replaced in 2014 to 2016 2 to 3 y ears early. There would then be no replacements required until 2021; however, starting in 2017, the oldest vehicle in the fleet would be 10 years old and the company would r eturn to a normal replacement cycle of replacing 10 year old vehicles. The fleet would be able to continue business as usual because it would have all 2010 engines in its fleet before the regulation would require it. Staff estimates the increased costs to comply with the proposed regulation would be about $26,400 in 2008 equivalent dollars o ver the calendar years of 2010- 2025. To offset the increased capital costs, this f leet would need to increase revenue by about 0.014 percent.

3. General Freight Transport Case Study

A general freight trucking company owns 60 vehicles with an average fleet age of 13.4 years. All the vehicles are heavy heavy-duty Tracto rs with an average of 85,000 miles per vehicle. Three of the vehicles have low mileage of less than 7500 and thus have delayed replacement requirements.

For this company, staff estimates the increased cos ts to comply with the proposed regulation would be about $1.52 million in 2008 equ ivalent dollars over the calendar years of 2010-2025.The annual revenues of this comp any were not provided; however, gross revenues of $1.50 per mile is not unusual for a general freight company. To offset the increased capital costs of these regulations, t his fleet would need to increase revenue by about $0.014 per mile or about 0.1 perce nt, during 2010 to 2025.

4. Motor Coach Case Study

A California bus company comprised of 138 diesel bu ses with an average fleet age of 6.4 years. This company operates a range of bus typ es including small shuttle buses and motor coaches with an average of 31,000 miles p er bus. The shuttle buses are primarily operated locally and the motor coaches ar e used for both local trips and longer trips. On average, this company would spend about $ 1.7 million annually for normal replacements of 11 to 12 vehicles.

For this analysis, staff estimated that shuttle veh icles cost about $70,000 when new, and that new motor coaches cost about $400,000 when new. This large disparity in cost is important in considering compliance options. For this company, staff estimates the increased costs to comply with the proposed regulat ion would be about $0.9 million inJ-35

2008 equivalent dollars over the calendar years of 2010-2025.Annual revenue for this company is approximately $9.8 million which is cumu latively projected to be about $119 million in 2008 equivalent dollars over the same ti me period. To offset the increased capital costs of these regulations, this fleet woul d need to increase revenue by about 0.8 percent during 2010 to 2025.

5. Refrigerated Transport Case Study

As a case study, staff analyzed the economic impact of the proposed regulations and the existing transportation refrigeration unit regu lation for a refrigerated transport company that owns 228 tractors and 270 refrigerated trailers used in long haul operations. The average tractor age was 7 years and the average trailer age was about 6 years old. This particular company normally purch ases refrigerated trailers new and purchases a range of new-to-3 year old trucks.

For this company, staff estimates the increased cos ts to comply with the In-Use HeavyDuty Vehicle proposed regulation would be about $1. 5 million in 2008 equivalent dollars over the calendar years of 2010-2025. Annual revenu es for this company are approximately $47.8 million, which are cumulatively projected to be $583 million in 2008 equivalent dollars over the same time period. To of fset the increased capital costs of the proposed regulations, this fleet would need to incr ease revenue by about 0.25 percent, or $0.0031 per mile, during 2010 to 2025.

This company would also be subject to the transport refrigeration unit (TRU) regulation. Staff estimate increased TRU costs of $2.1 million in 2008 equivalent dollars would be incurred over 2008-2018 to meet the TRU requirement s. Thus, the increased costs of both rules would be approximately $3.6 million in 2 008 equivalent dollars over the calendar years of 2010-2025. To offset the increase d capital costs of these combined regulations, this fleet would need to increase reve nue by about 0.61 percent, or $0.0074 per mile, during 2010 to 2025.

D. Construction

ARB fleet survey data submitted by 50 companies wit h a total of 1,116 vehicles included 21.6% below the mileage thresholds that would not b e subject to replacement prior to 2020 requirements and 9.5% very low mileage vehicle s that would be exempt from the performance requirements. These fleets had an avera ge fleet age of 16 years, and the median vehicle age was 13.0 years.

As seen in Figure 17 and Figure 18, while the major ity (52.6%) of these vehicles are purchased new, only 29% of the vehicles are less th an 7 years and 30% are over 15 years indicating many of these vehicles are kept in fleets for many years.J-36

Figure 17: Construction Vehicle Ages per 2002 VIUS (National), Diesel HeavyDuty Vehicles

0 to 3 Years

16%

3 to 6 Years

13%

7 to 10 Years

18% 11 to 13
Years

13% 14 to 15
Years

10% >15 Years

30%

Figure 18: Construction Vehicle Age at Purchase per 2002 VIUS (National),

Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles (>15 Years is Unknown)

<3 Years

52.6%

3 to 6
Years

23.0% 7 to 10
Years

15.6% 11 to 15

Years

8.8%

E. Agricultural Sector

California is home to the biggest agricultural econ omy in the United States. California's
farmers and ranchers have made this state the leade r in agricultural production for more than 50 years. The agriculture sector includes agri culture production crops, agriculture production livestock and animal specialties, agricu ltural services, forestry, fishing, hunting and trapping. Figure 19 shows the agricultu ral employment percentages in California by major crop/activity based on 2007 ann ual averages.J-37

Figure 19: Percentage of Agricultural Employment in California by Selected

Major Crop/Activity (2007 Annual Average Data)

Per the 2002 U.S. Census, California farm land cove rs 28 million acres with a harvested cropland of 8.5 million acres. The average size of a California farm is 346 acres. As seen in Figure 20, about 61 percent of California f arms have less than 50 acres. In 2000, California farms made up 4% of the nations fa rm total. California has some of the most agriculturally productive counties in the nati on. Eight of the nation’s top 10 producing counties are in California. Fresno is the leading agricultural county in the nation. As reported August 28, 2008 by the USDA’s N ational Agricultural Statistics Service and Economic Research Service, California a griculture saw a 15 percent gain in the sales value of its products in 2007. The state’ s 75,000 farms and ranches received a record $36.6 billion for their output in 2007, a 15 percent gain from 2006.J-38

Figure 20: California Number of Farms by Size Group (2002 U.S. Census)

Under 10 acres

27%

10-49 acres

34% 50-179 acres

18% 180-499 acres
10% 500-999 acres
5% 1,000 to 1,999 acres

3% 2,000 acres or more

3%

Per the statewide emission inventory database, ther e are about 22,000 agricultural trucks statewide, of which about 55% are heavy-heav y duty trucks (>33,000 pounds) and 45% are medium-heavy duty trucks (14,000-33,000 pounds). As seen in Figure 21 and Figure 22, while approximately one-third of the se vehicles are purchased new, only 17 percent of the vehicles are less than 7 years an d 41% are over 15 years indicating many of these vehicles are kept in fleets for the l ife of the vehicle.

Figure 21: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, or Hunti ng Vehicle Ages per 2002

VIUS (National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles

0 to 3 Years

8%

3 to 6 Years

9%

7 to 10 Years

18%

11 to 13

Years

14% 14 to 15

Years

10% >15 Years

41%J-39

Figure 22: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, or Hunti ng Vehicle Age at Purchase per 2002 VIUS (National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicle s (>15 Years is Unknown)

<3 Years

32.5%

3 to 6 Years

28.1% 7 to 10

Years

26.5% 11 to 15

Years

12.8%

Agricultural production and farmland trends over ti me are displayed in Figure 23. Per the USDA, between 1989 and 2003 the national trend demonstrates a shift in agricultural production to larger farms.

Figure 23: Agricultural Production is Shifting to L arger Farms

1. Almond Farm Case Study

Staff did not receive financial information from an y farms or ranches. Therefore, to evaluate specific costs, staff used an economic stu dy from the University of California (UC), Davis of a typical almond orchard (UC, 2008). The example almond orchard had typical gross returns of $4,200 per acre, with net revenues (excluding tractor costs) of $213 per acre. The study indicates that a single tr uck tractor would be needed for an orchard of approximately 125 acres.J-40

Survey data from an Almond Board survey suggests th at a typical farm truck would be 16 years old (a 1992 model year) truck and would be driven about 13,000 miles. If this truck would be normally replaced when it was 25 yea rs old it would need to be replaced in 2017. Under the agricultural provisions of the p roposed regulation, this vehicle would be required to be replaced by January 1, 2017. The ARB cost model would reflect that this type of fleet would normally replace the vehic le with a 10 year old vehicle. Therefore, if the farmer chose to purchase a truck with a 2010 model year engine, staff estimates that the farmer would need to pay about $ 12,000 more than normal to replace
this vehicle.

For a farm of this size, the total amount of almond s harvested from 2010 to 2025 would be about 7,350,000 pounds, valued at $6,400,000 in $2008, yielding a net income of $325,000. The increased capital costs to comply wit h the proposed regulation represents about 0.025 percent of the gross revenue received. To offset the increased capital costs, of replacing this vehicle, the farme r would need to increase prices by $0.001 per pound of almonds. If the farmer operated the truck less than 10,000 miles, the truck would not be required to be replaced unti l 2022.

F. Retail/Wholesale

As seen in Figure 24 and Figure 25, approximately t hree quarters of the vehicles used in the retail or wholesale markets are purchased ne w and only a 9 percent are over 15 years old.

Figure 24: Retail/Wholesale Trade Vehicle Ages per 2002 VIUS (National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles

0 to 3 Years

32%

3 to 6 Years

18% 7 to 10

Years

24% 11 to 13

Years

12% 14 to 15

Years

5% >15 Years

9%J-41

Figure 25: Retail/Wholesale Trade Vehicle Age at Pu rchase per 2002 VIUS (National), Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles (>15 Years i s Unknown)

<3 Years

74.5% 11 to 15

Years

2.6% 7 to 10

Years

7.1%

3 to 6 Years

15.8%

1. Produce Company Case Study

A produce company owns 7 vehicles with an average f leet age of 4.4 years. There are 3 heavy heavy-duty vehicles with annual mileage of 15 ,000 each and 4 medium heavyduty vehicles with annual mileage of 25,000 each. T he company reported a total of 10 vehicles for their fleet with 3 vehicles not subjec t to the rule requirement.

If this company were to install PM retrofits and do the minimum replacements required. For this fleet, the proposed regulation would requi re the installation of PM filters on five of the fleet vehicles. Staff estimates the increase d costs to comply with the proposed regulation would be about $44,900 in 2008 equivalen t dollars from 2010 to 2025. Annual revenues for this company are approximately $15 million which are cumulatively projected to be $183 million in 2008 equivalent dol lars over the same time period. To offset the increased capital costs of these regulat ions, this fleet would need to increase revenue by about 0.025 percent from 2010 to 2025.

Alternatively, the company could also choose to mak e early vehicle replacements to avoid these filter retrofits. This would result in increased investments of about $158,000 ($2008) in the years 2010-2013 but no additional re placement would be required until 2021. Because of the early replacements, the fleet would not make any replacements until 2018 when the oldest vehicle would be of an a ge that would normally be replaced. Starting in 2018, the company would return to a nor mal replacement cycle. The increased costs to comply using this option would b e approximately $18,000 in 2008 equivalent dollars over the calendar years of 2010- 2025 compared to normal capital expenditures.

2. Beverage Company Case Stud

A company that distributes beverage products has 68 7 vehicles with an average fleet age of 5.8 years. The fleet includes 213 heavy heav y-duty tractors, 8 medium heavy-J-42

duty dry vans and 466 medium heavy-duty beverage tr ucks with approximately half of the vehicles in California. The fleet includes 41 v ehicles with less than 1000 annual miles which would be exempt from the Truck and Bus rule requirements.

For this company, staff estimates the increased cos ts to comply with the proposed regulation would be about $2.1 million in 2008 equi valent dollars over the calendar years of 2010-2025. This compares to about $52 mill ion that would normally be spent for capital upgrades on diesel heavy-duty vehicles over this time period. The annual revenues of this company were not provided. To offs et the increased capital costs of these regulations, this fleet would need to increas e revenue by about $0.0028 per mile, during 2010 to 2025.

G. Other Services

The Other Services (except Public Administration) s ector comprises establishments engaged in providing services not specifically prov ided for elsewhere in the classification system. Establishments in this secto r are primarily engaged in activities such as equipment and machinery repairing, promotin g or administering religious activities, grant making, advocacy, and providing d ry-cleaning and laundry services, personal care services, death care services, pet ca re services, photofinishing services, temporary parking services, and dating services.

As seen in Figure 26 and Figure 27, the majority (6 5%) of Other Service vehicles are purchased new and only 10% of the vehicles are over 15 years.

Figure 26: Other Services Vehicle Ages per 2002 VIU S (National), Diesel HeavyDuty Vehicles

0 to 3
Years

32%

3 to 6
Years

18% 7 to 10
Years

23% 11 to 13
Years

11% 14 to 15
Years

6% >15 Years

10%J-43

Figure 27: Other Services Vehicle Age at Purchase p er 2002 VIUS (National),

Diesel Heavy-Duty Vehicles (>15 Years is Unknown)

<3 Years

65.2% 3 to 6 Years

19.3% 7 to 10

Years

11.1% 11 to 15

Years

4.4%

1. Street Sweeper Case Study

A sweeper company has 22 vehicles with an average a ge of 14 years and has revenue of $1.6 million per year with a 3 percent growth ra te. The fleet includes 15 active mainline medium heavy-duty street sweepers and 7 ve hicles either for low use or awaiting sale. The fleet’s active mainline vehicles average annual mileage is 10,000 with all miles instate. The increased capital costs would be approximately $994,000 in 2008 equivalent dollars and the revenue received wo uld be approximately $25,700,000 in 2008 equivalent dollars. The increased capital c osts represent 3.8% of the revenue received over this time period absent existing regu lations. However, because this sweeper fleet has several sweepers with uncontrolle d auxiliary engines they would not be able to operate in 2010 and could only be replac ed with new ones because they are currently subject to the portable engine BACT requi rements. Staff’s proposal to remove the auxiliary engine from the scope of the portable equipment ATCM and to treat the auxiliary engines at the same time as the main driv e engine in the current proposal, the net cost of the current proposal would be lower tha n the status quo.

2. Towing Case Study

A towing company has 5 vehicles with an average fle et age of 18.2 years and receives annual revenue of approximately $1,000,000. The fle et includes 1 heavy heavy-duty tractor, 3 heavy heavy-duty tow trucks and 1 medium heavy-duty tow trucks. The fleet’s total annual mileage is 175,000 with 155,000 miles specific to California. The fleet has 1 low mileage vehicle which would have delayed rule r equirements. On average, this company would replace a vehicle every 5 to 6 years with a used vehicle of 6 to 10 years. Staff modeled that replacement would be with an 8 year old vehicle.J-44

For this company, staff estimates the increased cos ts to comply with the proposed regulation would be about $429,000 in 2008 equivale nt dollars over the calendar years of 2010-2025. This compares to about $135,500 that would normally be spent for capital upgrades over this time period. Annual revenues for this company are approximately $1 million which are cumulatively projected to be $12. 2 million in 2008 equivalent dollars over the same time period. To offset the increased capital costs of these regulations, this fleet would need to increase revenue by about 3.5 percent during 2010 to 2025.J-45Table 20: Medium Heavy-Duty Vehicle Price Data0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Beverage Single$55,205 $46,492 $39,040 $32,712 $27,380 $22,926 $19,241 $16,226 $13,787 $11,842 $10,315 $6,781 $6,129 $5,477 $4,163 $2,663 $1,501Bucket/Boom Single$52,071 $48,687 $45,518 $42,553 $39,785 $37,207 $34,809 $32,583 $30,521 $28,615 $26,856 $19,985 $15,560 $12,548 $9,915 $6,628 $1,653Bus/Shuttle Single$71,850 $54,703 $40,872 $29,945 $21,534 $15,274 $10,821 $8,141 $7,293 $6,618 $6,068 $4,344 $3,427 $2,852 $2,235 $1,617 $1,000Bus (Motor Coach) Single$99,081 $83,136 $69,485 $57,870 $48,052 $39,814 $32,953 $27,287 $22,649 $18,887 $15,866 $8,085 $5,813 $4,490 $3,252 $2,529 $1,649Cab & Chassis (Cabover) Single$40,972 $35,101 $30,075 $25,804 $22,206 $19,197 $16,701 $14,645 $12,962 $11,590 $10,470 $7,127 $5,534 $4,651 $3,767 $2,884 $2,000Cab & Chassis Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Car Carrier Single$66,424 $57,786 $50,344 $43,959 $38,508 $33,874 $29,951 $26,643 $23,862 $21,530 $19,575 $13,487 $10,112 $7,224 $4,591 $2,701 $1,488Chipper Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Crane Single$95,284 $86,348 $77,713 $69,498 $61,800 $54,689 $48,216 $42,413 $37,293 $32,852 $29,074 $18,741 $15,902 $13,177 $10,452 $7,727 $5,002Dump Single$55,561 $49,636 $44,323 $39,584 $35,383 $31,683 $28,445 $25,633 $23,210 $21,138 $19,381 $14,116 $11,919 $9,950 $7,068 $4,389 $3,000Expeditor/Hot Shot Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Farm/Grain Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Flatbed Single$48,792 $42,264 $36,681 $31,933 $27,917 $24,539 $21,713 $19,362 $17,415 $15,807 $14,482 $10,535 $8,408 $6,591 $5,346$4,729 $4,074Flatbed: Dump Single$53,143 $47,313 $42,108 $37,473 $33,357 $29,712 $26,491 $23,654 $21,160 $18,973 $17,061 $10,613 $7,399 $5,763 $4,842$3,921 $3,000Fuel/Lube Single$84,104 $75,392 $67,746 $61,038 $55,155 $49,992 $45,455 $41,461 $37,933 $34,805 $32,019 $21,652 $14,762 $10,055 $7,493 $6,719 $5,484Garbage: Packer Same$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Garbage: Roll-off$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Grapple$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Hooklift Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Landscape Single$50,056 $43,888 $38,641 $34,205 $30,476 $27,361 $24,773 $22,634 $20,872 $19,422 $18,227 $14,483 $11,748 $8,454 $4,873 $2,140 $1,280Logging Tandem$200,744 $162,704 $132,920 $109,845 $92,155 $78,722 $68,598 $60,997 $55,272 $50,902 $47,474 $35,827 $25,964 $17,956$13,636 $9,316 $4,996Mixer/Concrete Same$160,796 $145,511 $130,973 $117,235 $104,339 $92,314 $81,179 $70,941 $61,598 $53,140 $45,548 $19,439 $8,792 $6,634 $6,578 $5,189 $4,000Service/Utility Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Stake Single$39,214 $35,236 $31,640 $28,405 $25,511 $22,938 $20,666 $18,673 $16,939 $15,445 $14,170 $10,358 $8,954 $7,466 $5,977$4,489 $3,000Tank: General Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Tank: Asphalt Single$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Tank: Chemical Single$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Tank: Liq. Fuel Same$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Tank: LPG Same$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Tank: Milk Single$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Tank: Vacuum Single$95,088 $80,568 $68,202 $57,740 $48,951 $41,623 $35,562 $30,590 $26,548 $23,291 $20,689 $13,907 $11,272 $8,751 $5,883 $3,383 $736Tank: Water Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Tow: Roll-back Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Tow: Wrecker Single$62,830 $56,319 $50,345 $44,884 $39,911 $35,402 $31,332 $27,676 $24,409 $21,507 $18,945 $9,335 $6,372 $5,221 $4,071 $2,920 $1,997Tractor: Cabover w/o Sleeper Single$45,893 $40,029 $34,923 $30,501 $26,692 $23,429 $20,651 $18,301 $16,326 $14,677 $13,310 $9,376 $7,693 $6,216 $4,811 $3,406 $2,001Tractor: Conventional w/oSleeper Single$61,565 $53,654 $46,531 $40,174 $34,559 $29,650 $25,408 $21,790 $18,745 $16,223 $14,169 $8,983 $7,595 $5,897 $4,492 $3,247 $2,002Van: Dry Single$52,868 $45,055 $38,506 $33,051 $28,532 $24,806 $21,743 $19,223 $17,143 $15,409 $13,944 $8,755 $5,672 $4,754 $3,836 $2,918 $2,000Van: Moving Single$60,621 $51,703 $43,969 $37,314 $31,636 $26,838 $22,828 $19,518 $16,824 $14,666 $12,971 $9,116 $8,135 $6,351 $4,567 $2,783 $999Van: Reefer Single$74,028 $58,819 $47,295 $38,667 $32,267 $27,537 $24,021 $21,355 $19,257 $17,521 $16,003 $9,985 $7,698 $6,148 $4,598 $3,048 $1,498Winch Single$90,712 $82,206 $74,232 $66,787 $59,863 $53,450 $47,537 $42,109 $37,151 $32,644 $28,570 $13,938 $6,715 $3,955 $3,205$3,106 $2,800Yard Spotter (Goat) Single$58,484 $52,833 $48,465 $44,869 $41,678 $38,650 $35,651 $32,633 $29,613 $26,661 $23,873 $15,473 $13,378 $11,283 $9,188 $7,093 $4,998Tractor: Cabover w/o Sleeper Single$45,893 $40,029 $34,923 $30,501 $26,692 $23,429 $20,651 $18,301 $16,326 $14,677 $13,310 $9,376 $7,693 $6,216 $4,811 $3,406 $2,001Tractor: Conv w/o Sleeper Single$61,565 $53,654 $46,531 $40,174 $34,559 $29,650 $25,408 $21,790 $18,745 $16,223 $14,169 $8,983 $7,595 $5,897 $4,492 $3,247 $2,002Tank: LPG Same$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Tank: Milk Single$96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Tank: Vacuum Single$95,088 $80,568 $68,202 $57,740 $48,951 $41,623 $35,562 $30,590 $26,548 $23,291 $20,689 $13,907 $11,272 $8,751 $5,883 $3,383 $736Tank: Water Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Tow: Roll-back Single$52,409 $43,888 $36,822 $31,026 $26,326 $22,564 $19,591 $17,270 $15,477 $14,102 $13,045 $9,896 $6,781 $4,774 $3,849 $2,924 $1,999Tow: Wrecker Single$62,830 $56,319 $50,345 $44,884 $39,911 $35,402 $31,332 $27,676 $24,409 $21,507 $18,945 $9,335 $6,372 $5,221 $4,071 $2,920 $1,997Tractor: Cabover w/o Sleeper Single$45,893 $40,029 $34,923 $30,501 $26,692 $23,429 $20,651 $18,301 $16,326 $14,677 $13,310 $9,376 $7,693 $6,216 $4,811 $3,406 $2,001Tractor: Conventional w/oSleeper Single$61,565 $53,654 $46,531 $40,174 $34,559 $29,650 $25,408 $21,790 $18,745 $16,223 $14,169 $8,983 $7,595 $5,897 $4,492 $3,247 $2,002Van: Dry Single$52,868 $45,055 $38,506 $33,051 $28,532 $24,806 $21,743 $19,223 $17,143 $15,409 $13,944 $8,755 $5,672 $4,754 $3,836 $2,918 $2,000Van: Moving Single$60,621 $51,703 $43,969 $37,314 $31,636 $26,838 $22,828 $19,518 $16,824 $14,666 $12,971 $9,116 $8,135 $6,351 $4,567 $2,783 $999Van: Reefer Single$74,028 $58,819 $47,295 $38,667 $32,267 $27,537 $24,021 $21,355 $19,257 $17,521 $16,003 $9,985 $7,698 $6,148 $4,598 $3,048 $1,498Winch Single$90,712 $82,206 $74,232 $66,787 $59,863 $53,450 $47,537 $42,109 $37,151 $32,644 $28,570 $13,938 $6,715 $3,955 $3,205$3,106 $2,800Yard Spotter (Goat) Single$58,484 $52,833 $48,465 $44,869 $41,678 $38,650 $35,651 $32,633 $29,613 $26,661 $23,873 $15,473 $13,378 $11,283 $9,188 $7,093 $4,998Transfer Body($)$9,500$9,500$18,000$8,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500$9,500Age in 2008Rear Axle$9,500$10,500$6,000$8,500$24,000$11,500$9,000$9,500MHD Vehicle Type$9,500$9,500$9,500J-46Table 21: Heavy Heavy-Duty Vehicle Price Data012345678910152025303540BeverageSingle$75,611 $61,861 $50,456 $41,113 $33,565 $27,565 $22,881 $19,301 $16,628 $14,683 $13,307 $10,539 $7,895 $5,619 $4,307$2,994 $1,682Bucket/Boom Tandem $25,000 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Bus (Motor Coach) Tandem $449,954 $404,277 $360,925 $320,078 $281,879 $246,436 $213,822 $184,072 $157,187 $133,131 $111,832 $41,687 $18,633 $14,475 $10,317 $6,159 $2,001Cab & Chassis Single $59,836 $51,269 $43,898 $37,589 $32,218 $27,670 $23,840 $20,634 $17,963 $15,750 $13,923 $8,621$6,250 $4,520 $3,127 $2,515 $2,640Cab & Chassis Tandem $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Cab & Chassis Dual Frame Tandem $105,738 $90,581 $77,693 $66,800 $57,649 $50,010 $43,674 $38,451 $34,171 $30,679 $27,841 $19,764 $15,742 $12,201 $9,069 $6,974 $5,136Car Carrier Tandem $261,761 $228,860 $199,472 $173,394 $150,421 $130,351 $112,980 $98,103 $85,517 $75,018 $66,403 $44,448 $38,338 $32,228 $26,118 $20,008 $13,898ChipperSingle $10,500 $59,836 $51,269 $43,898 $37,589 $32,218 $27,670 $23,840 $20,634 $17,963 $15,750 $13,923 $8,621 $6,250$4,520 $3,127 $2,515 $2,640Cotton Module Tandem $10,500 $105,738 $90,581 $77,693 $66,800 $57,649 $50,010 $43,674 $38,451 $34,171 $30,679 $27,841 $19,764 $15,742 $12,201 $9,069 $6,974 $5,136Crane (Boom) Same $152,706 $129,256 $109,978 $94,253 $81,524 $71,294 $63,121 $56,616 $51,440 $47,303 $43,956 $33,087 $24,646 $18,559 $16,142 $13,350 $10,558Drill RigTandem $756,478 $652,807 $565,406 $492,256 $431,507 $381,463 $340,583 $307,469 $280,861 $259,631 $242,777 $196,921$170,102 $137,416 $102,037 $74,408 $51,422DumpTandem $9,250 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Dump: Transfer Single $208,875 $180,973 $157,445 $137,712 $121,248 $107,578 $96,272 $86,948 $79,265 $72,923 $67,661 $50,749 $39,311 $29,234 $22,401 $19,262 $14,000Expeditor/Hot Shot Tandem $114,960 $88,866 $72,526 $61,322 $52,460 $44,494 $36,917 $29,803 $23,518 $18,478 $14,980$11,473 $9,678 $7,883 $6,088 $4,293 $2,498Farm/Grain Same $113,235 $97,606 $84,512 $73,630 $64,662 $57,339 $51,415 $46,669 $42,903 $39,939 $37,622 $31,543 $27,867 $22,990 $17,262 $11,945 $6,627FlatbedTandem $79,035 $69,876 $61,783 $54,662 $48,426 $42,989 $38,271 $34,195 $30,689 $27,684 $25,118 $16,904 $12,423 $8,344 $5,517 $3,757 $1,997Flatbed: Dump Tandem $80,422 $70,173 $61,191 $53,369 $46,602 $40,790 $35,838 $31,656 $28,158 $25,262 $22,892 $16,568 $14,534 $11,399 $8,264 $5,129 $1,994Fuel/LubeSingle $25,500 $59,836 $51,269 $43,898 $37,589 $32,218 $27,670 $23,840 $20,634 $17,963 $15,750 $13,923 $8,621 $6,250$4,520 $3,127 $2,515 $2,640Fuel/LubeTandem $25,500 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Garbage: Packer Tandem $24,000 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Garbage: Roll-off Tandem $11,500 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285$60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136GrappleTandem $18,000 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136HookliftTandem $8,500 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136LoggingTandem $200,744 $162,704 $132,920 $109,845 $92,155 $78,722 $68,598 $60,997 $55,272 $50,902 $47,474 $35,827 $25,964 $17,956 $13,636 $9,316 $4,996Mixer/Concrete Tandem $160,796 $145,511 $130,973 $117,235 $104,339 $92,314 $81,179 $70,941 $61,598 $53,140 $45,548$19,439 $8,792 $6,634 $6,578 $5,189 $4,000Service/Utility Single $9,000 $59,836 $51,269 $43,898 $37,589 $32,218 $27,670 $23,840 $20,634 $17,963 $15,750 $13,923 $8,621 $6,250 $4,520 $3,127 $2,515 $2,640StakeSingle $106,567 $85,350 $67,970 $53,902 $42,672 $33,849 $27,045 $21,913 $18,146 $15,472 $13,654 $11,046 $9,836 $8,626 $7,416 $6,206 $4,996SweeperSingle $207,024 $180,509 $157,184 $136,727 $118,842 $103,254 $89,707 $77,969 $67,827 $59,085 $51,567 $27,283 $15,804 $9,840 $6,633 $5,185 $3,480Tank: General Tandem $9,500 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852$18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Tank: Asphalt Same $108,330 $96,090 $85,561 $76,531 $68,806 $62,210 $56,582 $51,778 $47,668 $44,137 $41,085 $30,293$22,710 $16,427 $12,298 $8,948 $5,598Tank: Chemical Same $108,330 $96,090 $85,561 $76,531 $68,806 $62,210 $56,582 $51,778 $47,668 $44,137 $41,085 $30,293 $22,710 $16,427 $12,298 $8,948 $5,598Tank: Liq. Fuel Same $108,330 $96,090 $85,561 $76,531 $68,806 $62,210 $56,582 $51,778 $47,668 $44,137 $41,085 $30,293 $22,710 $16,427 $12,298 $8,948 $5,598Tank: LPGSame $108,330 $96,090 $85,561 $76,531 $68,806 $62,210 $56,582 $51,778 $47,668 $44,137 $41,085 $30,293 $22,710 $16,427 $12,298 $8,948 $5,598Tank: MilkTandem $108,330 $96,090 $85,561 $76,531 $68,806 $62,210 $56,582 $51,778 $47,668 $44,137 $41,085 $30,293 $22,710 $16,427 $12,298 $8,948 $5,598Tank: Vacuum Same $162,565 $137,737 $117,636 $101,496 $88,633 $78,442 $70,393 $64,027 $58,949 $54,827 $51,385 $38,161 $25,565 $17,483 $12,988 $8,493 $3,998Tank: Water Single $9,500 $59,836 $51,269 $43,898 $37,589$32,218 $27,670 $23,840 $20,634 $17,963 $15,750 $13,923 $8,621 $6,250 $4,520 $3,127 $2,515 $2,640Tank: Water Tandem $9,500 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228$51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136ToterSame $140,987 $118,185 $98,844 $82,549 $68,917 $57,599 $48,276 $40,658 $34,486 $29,524 $25,565 $15,122 $10,747 $6,878 $3,641 $2,577 $2,363Tow: Roll-back Single $9,500 $59,836 $51,269 $43,898 $37,589 $32,218 $27,670 $23,840 $20,634 $17,963 $15,750 $13,923 $8,621 $6,250 $4,520 $3,127 $2,515 $2,640Tow: Roll-back Tandem $9,500 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Tow: Wrecker Tandem $300,478 $270,655 $243,293 $218,257 $195,415 $174,638 $155,799 $138,776 $123,449 $109,703 $97,424 $54,347 $33,170 $24,175 $20,422 $18,014 $16,358Tractor: Cabover w/o Sleeper Single $92,201 $77,615 $65,065 $54,362 $45,327 $37,789 $31,582 $26,554 $22,558 $19,456 $17,119 $12,965 $10,644 $8,322 $6,001 $3,679 $1,358Tractor: Cabover w/o Sleeper Tandem $105,151 $88,278 $73,997 $62,035 $52,132 $44,044 $37,539 $32,401 $28,425 $25,422 $23,216 $18,968 $16,275 $13,044 $10,334 $7,624 $4,914Tractor: Cabover w/ Sleeper Tandem $131,961 $101,674 $78,671 $61,516 $48,967 $39,964 $33,617 $29,193 $26,099 $23,873 $22,166 $15,628 $12,128 $9,988 $7,848 $5,708 $3,568Tractor: Conventional w/ Sleeper Tandem $131,961 $101,674 $78,671 $61,516 $48,967 $39,964 $33,617 $29,193 $26,099 $23,873 $22,166 $15,628 $12,128 $9,988 $7,848 $5,708 $3,568Tractor: Conventional w/o Sleeper Single $92,201 $77,615 $65,065 $54,362 $45,327 $37,789 $31,582 $26,554 $22,558$19,456 $17,119 $12,965 $10,644 $8,322 $6,001 $3,679 $1,358Tractor: Conventional w/o Sleeper Tandem $105,151 $88,278 $73,997 $62,035 $52,132 $44,044 $37,539 $32,401 $28,425 $25,422 $23,216 $18,968 $16,275 $13,044 $10,334 $7,624 $4,914Van: DrySingle $54,910 $47,717 $41,364 $35,794 $30,950 $26,774 $23,211 $20,203 $17,692 $15,623 $13,937 $9,273 $7,370 $6,155 $4,940 $3,725 $2,510Van: DryTandem $98,469 $85,185 $73,317 $62,783 $53,502 $45,391 $38,368 $32,351 $27,259 $23,009 $19,519 $10,599 $8,907 $7,607$6,307 $5,007 $3,707Van: Moving Single $75,179 $60,443 $48,520 $39,009 $31,538 $25,766 $21,384 $18,115 $15,711 $13,957 $12,668 $8,920 $7,241 $5,931 $4,621 $3,311 $2,001Van: Reefer Same $78,491 $64,827 $53,746 $44,836 $37,726 $32,090 $27,640 $24,126 $21,335 $19,084 $17,227 $10,562 $5,871 $4,778 $3,685 $2,592 $1,499WinchTandem $8,500 $96,685 $82,337 $70,285 $60,228 $51,895 $45,038 $39,433 $34,881 $31,202 $28,238 $25,852 $18,928 $14,717 $10,651 $8,813 $6,974 $5,136Yard Spotter (Goat) Single $79,950 $66,817 $56,304 $47,958 $41,382 $36,229 $32,200 $29,038 $26,528 $24,495 $22,796$16,334 $11,106 $8,908 $7,106 $5,303 $3,501012468101520253035404550556064$2,909/hp $2,690/hp $2,488/hp $2,129/hp $1,821/hp $1,557/hp $1,332/hp $902/hp $610/hp $413/hp $279/hp $189/hp $128/hp $98/hp $83/hp $70/hp $56/hp $46/hpTandemTwo-Engine Crane ($/HP by Yr)(Lattice Boom/All-Terrain/Mounted Hydraulic)HHD Vehicle TypeAge in 2008Rear AxleTransfer Body($)J-47Table 22: Sample Individual Company Fleet CostsJ-48SAMPLE INDIVIDUAL COMPANY FLEET COSTSJ-49SAMPLE INDIVIDUAL COMPANY FLEET COSTSJ-50SAMPLE INDIVIDUAL COMPANY FLEET COSTSJ-51SAMPLE INDIVIDUAL COMPANY FLEET COSTSJ-52

H. References

ARB 2003. Air Resources Board. Supplemental Staff Report: Proposed Diesel Particulate Matter Control Measure For On-Road Heav y-Duty Residential and Commercial Solid Waste Collection Vehicles. Appendi x F – Revised Cost Effectiveness Methodology. August 11, 2003. http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/dieselswcv/appf2.pdf

ARB 2006a. Air Resources Board. December 2006 In- Use Off-road Diesel Vehicle Workshops. Quotes from diesel emissions control ma nufacturers at workshops.
December 2006.

ARB, 2007. Air Resources Board. Technical Support Document, Regulations to Control Emissions From In-Use On-Road Diesel-Fueled Heavy Duty Drayage Trucks. Appendix D: Methodologies for Economic Impact Asses sment. October 2007. http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2007/drayage07/appbf.p df

CEC 2008. California Energy Commission, California Gasoline S tatistics & Data, Price of California No 2 Diesel in September 2008. http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/gasoline /

VIUS 2002. U.S. Census Bureau, Vehicle Inventory a nd Use Survey, 2002 Data
Releases. http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/vius/2002.html