[Federal Register Volume 62, Number 36 (Monday, February 24, 1997)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 8189-8190]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 97-4427]


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Proposed Rules
                                                Federal Register
________________________________________________________________________

This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of 
the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these 
notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in 
the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.

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Federal Register / Vol. 62, No. 36 / Monday, February 24, 1997 / 
Proposed Rules

[[Page 8189]]



DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

10 CFR Part 430


Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Workshop to 
Consider a Revised Approach for Analyzing the Manufacturer Impacts from 
New or Revised Appliance Energy-Efficiency Standards

AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of 
Energy.

ACTION: Notice of Workshop on a Revised Manufacturer Impact Analysis 
Approach.

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SUMMARY: The Department of Energy (the Department or DOE) is convening 
a public workshop to discuss a new approach to assessing the likely 
impacts on manufacturers of appliance energy-efficiency standards that 
are under consideration by the Department. All persons are hereby given 
notice of the opportunity to attend and participate in the public 
workshop.

DATES: The workshop on a revised manufacturer impact analysis approach 
will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday, March 11 and 12, 1997, from 9:00 
a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

ADDRESSES: A transcript of the workshop may be read at the DOE Freedom 
of Information Reading Room, U.S. Department of Energy, Forrestal 
Building, Room 1E-190, 1000 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 
20585, (202) 586-6020, between the hours of 9:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m., 
Monday through Friday, except Federal holidays.
    The Manufacturer Impact Analysis Workshop will be held in Room 1E-
245, Forrestal Building, 1000 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, 
D.C. 20585.
    If you are planning to attend the workshop or wish to receive 
material prepared for the workshop, please contact either Qonnie 
Laughlin or Sandy Beall, as listed below.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Ms. Qonnie Laughlin, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy 
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Forrestal Building, Mail Station EE-
43, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121, (202) 586-
9632.
Ms. Sandy Beall, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. 
Department of Energy, Mail Stop EE-43, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, 
Washington, DC 20585-0121, (202) 586-7574.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as 
amended by the National Energy Policy Conservation Act, the National 
Appliance Energy Conservation Act, the National Appliance Energy 
Conservation Amendments of 1988, and the Energy Policy Act of 1992, 
prescribes energy conservation standards for certain major appliances 
and equipment and requires the Department of Energy to administer an 
energy conservation program for the products. Earlier appliance 
rulemakings have highlighted the need to address a number of complex 
issues concerning the impact of standards on consumers and 
manufacturers. In response to these issues, the Department initiated a 
comprehensive process improvement effort to examine, through a series 
of stakeholder meetings and interviews, issues surrounding the 
appliance standards program. On July 15, 1996, (61 FR 36974) DOE issued 
Procedures for Consideration of New or Revised Energy Conservation 
Standards for Consumer Products final rule (process rule) resulting 
from the process improvement effort.
    In the July 15, 1996, procedures, the Department committed to a 
comprehensive review of its existing methodology for analyzing the 
likely impacts on manufacturers of new or revised appliance minimum 
energy efficiency standards. In that review, the Department identified 
several ways to improve such analyses, and has incorporated these into 
a Manufacturer Impact Analysis Approach--Draft Workplan.
    The Department intends to introduce for consideration and 
discussion its Draft Workplan at the Workshop that is the subject of 
this Notice.
    A central feature of the draft approach is the incorporation of the 
industry-provided Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM). The GRIM 
meets a number of the Department's objectives in revising the 
manufacturer impact analysis approach, in that the model is 
transparent, relatively easy to use, and capable of being used by any 
individual manufacturer. The GRIM, however, also requires a number of 
significant inputs to be operational. These inputs include forecasts of 
expected prices and industry shipments, as well as information about 
firm-level production costs. The Department desires to address the 
derivation of these important inputs as soon as possible, and the 
workshop will be the initial opportunity for individuals to provide 
comments to the Department on this topic. The Department hopes to 
obtain guidance from individuals attending this workshop, on methods 
for estimating the impacts of standards on appliance prices, shipments 
and manufacturer costs.
    While there will be some presentations, the workshop is being 
designed to maximize open discussions. The Manufacturer Impact Analysis 
Workshop will be professionally facilitated. It is expected that one 
outcome of this workshop will be the formation of a working group that 
would meet subsequent to the workshop to help the Department further 
develop its workplan.
    Below is the preliminary agenda for the public workshop:

Preliminary Agenda, Manufacturer Impact Analyses Workshop, March 11 and 
12, 1997, Room 1E-245, 1000 Independence Ave SW, Washington, D.C.

    Purpose: To describe and obtain comments on the draft workplan for 
future manufacturer impact analysis. To describe and obtain comments on 
existing and proposed analytical tools.
    Expected Outcomes: Formation of a working group(s) consisting of 
representatives of different industries and other interested parties. 
Guidance for further development of the workplan, including advice on 
the desirability of making changes to existing models or developing new 
tools.

[[Page 8190]]

Day 1--March 11

Methodology Overview and Description of Analytical Tools

9:00 a.m.--9:15 a.m.
    Opening Remarks, Overview, Agenda Review
9:15 a.m.--9:30 a.m.
    Description of the Review Process
    --Major objectives of the process rule regarding the analysis of 
manufacturer impacts
    --Process description
    --Schedule
9:30 a.m.--9:45 a.m.
    Analytical Framework
    --Measures of impact
    --Firms considered
    --Balance of qualitative and quantitative assessments
9:45 a.m.--10:30 a.m.
    Description of New Approach
    --Overview
    --Relationship to other standards analyses
    --Phase 1, Industry Profile
    --Phase 2, Industry Cash Flow
    --Phase 3, Sub-Group Analysis
10:30 a.m.--10:45 a.m.
    Break
10:45 a.m.--12:00 noon
    Description of the GRIM Model
    --Role and applicability of the GRIM Model
    --Financial principles
    --Input requirements
    --Output results
    --Open discussion, suggested modification, e.g. inclusion of return 
on investment
12:00 noon--1:00 p.m.
    Lunch
1:00 p.m.--2:00 p.m.
    Preparing the Industry Profiles
    --Industry characterization
    --Industry data book
2:00 p.m.--3:30 p.m.
    Issues in Shipments Forecasts--Panel and Open Discussion
    --Role of forecasting models in the manufacturer impact analyses
    --General description of models, including
    <bullet> Input requirements
    <bullet> Outputs
    <bullet> Key assumptions
    <bullet> Uncertainty analysis
    <bullet> Track record
    <bullet> Operating characteristics
    --New spread sheet approach
    --Advantages and disadvantages of alternate approaches to 
forecasting shipments for GRIM
3:30 p.m.--5:00 p.m.
    Optional hands-on computer training on the models

Day 2--March 12

Methodology Implementation

9:00 a.m.--9:15 a.m.
    Opening Remarks, Agenda Review
    --Objectives
9:15 a.m.--9:45 a.m.
    Review of Day One Outcomes
    --Key issues
    --DOE perspective
    --Stakeholder comments
9:45 a.m.--10:00 a.m.
    Break
10:00 a.m.--11:30 a.m.
    Estimating Manufacturing Costs for Input to GRIM--Panel and Open 
Discussion
    --Relationship to engineering analysis
    --Uncertainty in key variables
    --Variability between firms
    --Data collection methods e.g. ASHRAE methodology
    --Costs not considered in GRIM
11:30 a.m.--12:30 p.m.
    Lunch
12:30 p.m.--1:30 p.m.
    Estimating Prices for Input to GRIM--Panel and Open Discussion
    --Relationship to life-cycle cost analysis
    --Economic concepts
    --DOT methodology
    --Alternative forecasts
    --Scenario/ uncertainty analysis
    --Open discussion
1:30 p.m.--2:30 p.m.
    Estimating Shipments for Input to GRIM--Panel and Open Discussion
    --Relationship to national benefits forecasts
    --Appropriateness of existing forecasting models
    --Simplified spreadsheet model
    --Alternative forecasts
    --Scenario/uncertainty analysis
    --Open discussion
2:30 p.m.--2:45 p.m.
    Break
2:45 p.m.--4:15 p.m.
    Non-Model Impact Evaluation--Panel and Open Discussion
    --Competitive impacts
    --Manufacturing capacity, lost investment
    --Employment impacts
    --Information gathering and assessment methodology
    --Cumulative impacts
4:15 p.m.--4:45 p.m.
    Other Issues/Alternative Methods/Stakeholder Comments
4:45 p.m.--5:00 p.m.
    Discussion of Future Steps
    --Working group(s) composition, role and meetings
5:00 p.m.
    Adjourn

    Issued in Washington, DC, on February 18, 1997.
Christine A. Ervin,
Assistant Secretary, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. 97-4427 Filed 2-21-97; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P