OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – November 2023 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Meetings: Oct 26 – Oct 27, 2023

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please submit your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, October 23, 2023. Even 

if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1, 2

Central 

Estimate

Range that would 

not surprise you

Low/High

October-December 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

January-March 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2025 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2026 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

II. Economic Estimates

Budget Deficit FY 2024 /

Budget Deficit FY 2025 /

Budget Deficit FY 2026 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve System does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised 

for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.

2 See appendix for an example calculation of privately-held net marketable borrowing.
Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2023 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2024 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

10-year note (Nov) /

10-year note reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

20-year bond (Nov) /

20-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

30-year bond (Nov) /

30-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

2-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

5-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

7-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

10-year TIPS reopening (Nov) /

5-year TIPS reopening (Dec) /

10-year TIPS (Jan) /

2-year FRN reopening (Nov/Dec) / / - /

2-year FRN (Jan) /

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates3

52-week bill size (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Nov‘23 - Jan‘24 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding Nov‘23 - Jan‘24 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2024 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2024 /

CMB issuance Nov ‘23 – Jan‘24 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including changes in SOMA holdings), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2024 and FY2025.

2. At the last quarterly refunding, Treasury communicated its intention to continue issuing the regular weekly 6-week 

cash management bill, at least through the end of this calendar year. Based on your outlook for Treasury’s borrowing 

needs, the structural demand for bills, and your view on the appropriate level of bills outstanding in the medium- and 

long-term, should Treasury consider making the 6-week a benchmark bill tenor? Please explain. 

To help inform Treasury’s evaluation, what do you expect total bill supply outstanding to be at the end of FY2024, 

FY2025, and FY2026? How large could current benchmark bill auction sizes become without adversely affecting 

3 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
auction performance (e.g. large auction stop outs above when-issued rates) or causing significant yield deviations 

from fair value (e.g. secondary market bill yields trading significantly above historical spreads relative to OIS)?

Anticipated Average Bill Auction Sizes (in $ billions), if 6-week is not a benchmark

FY2024 FY2025 FY2026

Tenor Size # of Issues Supply Outstanding Size # of Issues Supply Outstanding Size # of Issues Supply Outstanding

4-week 4 4 4

8-week 8 8 8

13-week 13 13 13

17-week 17 17 17

26-week 26 26 26

52-week 13 13 13

Total Total Total

Anticipated Average Bill Auction Sizes (in $ billions), if 6-week is a benchmark

FY2024 FY2025 FY2026

Tenor Size # of Issues Supply Outstanding Size # of Issues Supply Outstanding Size # of Issues Supply Outstanding

4-week 4 4 4

6-week 6 6 6

8-week 8 8 8

13-week 13 13 13

17-week 17 17 17

26-week 26 26 26

52-week 13 13 13

Total Total Total

3. Please discuss what factors Treasury should consider when scheduling buyback operations. Are there certain events, 

days of the week, or times of day that Treasury should avoid conducting operations? Also, when determining when to 

conduct buyback operations in a specific maturity sector, is it better to conduct the operations in the week(s) 

before/after an auction in the same sector or would that not matter? Finally, for liquidity support buybacks, Treasury 

plans to buy back a maximum amount of $4 billion in each bucket per quarter. For example, are there maturity 

sectors where it would be more desirable to conduct two operations per quarter with a maximum amount of $2 billion 

in each operation versus one operation per quarter with a maximum amount of $4 billion?
Auction Size Survey:

Given your expectations for borrowing needs over the next three fiscal years (as presented in question 1), Treasury would like 

your expectations for:

1. Auction sizes ($bn) in all tenors by the end of FY24, FY25, and FY26, and 

2. Auction size ranges ($bn) that would not surprise you across all tenors by the end of FY24, FY25, and FY26.

Auction size estimates should take into account the amount net of SOMA add-ons of Treasury securities.

Tenor

Size 

Expectation for 

FY24

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Size 

Expectation for 

FY25

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Size 

Expectation for 

FY26

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Year-end Low/High Year-end Low/High Year-end Low/High

Nominals

2-year / / /

3-year / / /

5-year / / /

7-year / / /

10-year (new) / / /

10-year (reop) / / /

20-year (new) / / /

20-year (reop) / / /

30-year (new) / / /

30-year (reop) / / /

TIPS

5-year TIPS (new) / / /

5-year-TIPS (reop) / / /

10-year TIPS (new) / / /

10-year TIPS (reop) / / /

30-year TIPS (new) / / /

30-year TIPS (reop) / / /

FRNs

2-year FRN / / /

2-year FRN (reop) / / /

Bills

1-mo bill / / /

2-mo bill / / /

3-mo bill / / /

4-mo bill / / /

6-mo bill / / /

1-year bill / / /
Appendix

In order to gather more comprehensive information regarding the factors affecting Treasury’s borrowing needs, Part I 

requests estimates of “Other Means of Financing,” which is one of several components of the difference between budget 

deficits and privately-held net marketable borrowing (as shown in the Example below). “Other Means of Financing” 

includes items where the timing of government cash flows may differ from budget accounting, such as student loans and 

loans to small business. 

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