# pennsyLvania

**DEPARTMENT OF**  **ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION** 

**SECRETARY**

**July 22,**  **2013**

**Mr. Shawn**  **Garvin Regional**  **Administrator U.S.**  **Environmental Protection**  **Agency, Region**  **III 1650**  **Arch Street**  **(Mail Code:**  **3RAOO) Philadelphia,**  **PA 19103-2029**

**Dear Mr. Garvin:** 

**Enclosed for**  **your approval**  **is a**  **revision to**  **the Pennsylvania**  **State Implementation**  **Plan (SIP)**  **to update**  **the Motor**  **Vehicle Emissions**  **Budgets (MVEBs)**  **in the**  **"Maintenance Plan**  **and Base**  **Year Inventory**  **for the**  **Reading Eight-Hour**  **Ozone Nonattainment Area"**  **(Maintenance Plan).**  **The Maintenance**  **Plan was**  **developed according**  **to Section**  **175A(b) of**  **the Clean**  **Air Act**  **(42 U.S.CA**  **§7505a(b»**

**. This**  **Maintenance Plan**  **revision was**  **also developed**  **in accordance**  **with the**  **U.S. Environmental**  **Protection Agency's**  **(EPA) April**  **2012 guidance**  **document titled,**  **"Policy Guidance on**  **the Use**  **of MOVES20**  **1 0 and**  **Subsequent Minor Revisions for**  **State Implementation**  **Plan Development,Transportation**  **Conformity, and**  **Other Purposes."**  **The Pennsylvania**  **Department of**  **Environmental Protection**  **(DEP) requests**  **that the**  **EPA use**  **the direct**  **final rulemaking**  **process to**  **expedite the**  **approval of**  **this non-controversial**  **SIP revision.** 

**The Commonwealth**  **has completed**  **its public**  **participation process**  **for this**  **SIP revision.**  **DEP scheduled**  **a public**  **hearing to**  **occur on**  **the final**  **day of**  **the 30-day**  **public comment**  **period, which**  **ended April**  **30, 2013,**  **but no**  **persons expressed**  **interest in**  **presenting testimony**  **or attending.**  **Therefore, DEP**  **cancelled the**  **hearing. DEP**  **received no**  **comments on**  **the proposed**  **SIP revision.**  **After the**  **public comment period**  **closed, DEP**  **made minor**  **corrections to**  **some tables**  **in the**  **proposed Maintenance Plan**  **revision. These**  **changes did**  **not affect**  **the final**  **conclusion of**  **the revision.** 

**The following**  **documents are**  **enclosed for**  **your approval:** 

**1. The**  **Maintenance Plan revision,**  **which includes**  **an MVEB**  **for the**  **purposes of**  **transportation conformity;**  **2. Certification**  **of public**  **participation activities;**  **3. A**  **technical support document for**  **the Maintenance**  **Plan revision;**  **and 4.**  **Appendix C,**  **"Technical Support**  **Document, Mobile Source Highway**  **Emissions Inventory,"**  **which replaces**  **the Appendix**  **C of**  **the same**  **title in**  **the approved**  **Maintenance Plan.** 

**A paper**  **copy and**  **a disk**  **containing a**  **searchable PDF**  **copy of**  **the revised**  **Maintenance Plan**  **are enclosed.**  **I certify**  **that the**  **electronic file**  **is an**  **exact duplicate**  **of the**  **hard copy.** 

**- Rachel**  **Carson State**  **Office Building**  **I P.O.**  **Box-;Z063-I Harrisburg,**  **PA 1710')C2063**  **- ���**  **-**

**717.787.2814 (}J.**  **Prirlted on**  **Recycled Paper**  

### QS(9 **www.depweb.state.pa.us Mr.**  **Shawn Garvin**  **- 2**

**- July**  **22, 2013** 

**On August**  **24, 2007,**  **the EPA**  **approved the**  **Commonwealth's request for**  **redesignation as**  **attaimnent for**  **the Reading**  **Area and**  **all of**  **the components of**  **the Maintenance**  **Plan, which**  **included MVEBs**  **for 2009**  **and 2018**  **(72 FR**  **48559).**

**As you**  **know, the**  **EPA updated**  **the model**  **that estimates highway**  **vehicle emissions.**  **The new**  **model, the**  **Motor Vehicle**  **Emissions Simulator**  **(MOVES), better**  **estimates emissions**  **from highway**  **vehicles, but**  **MOVES estimates**  **much higher emissions**  **of oxides**  **of nitrogen,**  **than the**  **Mobile6.2 model**  **used to**  **derive the**  **MVEBs in**  **the approved**  **Reading Maintenance**  **Plan. The Berks**  **County Planning**  **Commission (BCPC),**  **which is**  **responsible for**  **transportation plauning**  **in Berks**  **County, uses**  **those approved**  **MVEBs to**  **satisfy transportation**  **conformity requirements**  **.. The**  **BCPC is**  **required to**  **use the most**  **up-to-date version**  **of MOVES**  **for all new**  **transportation plauning**  **that begins**  **after March**  **2, 2013.**  **Approval of**  **the updated**  **MVEBs in**  **the Commonwealth's**  **SIP will**  **allow BCPC**  **to compare**  **similarly generated**  **emissions used**  **in its**  **plans and**  **the MVEBs,**  **which will**  **allow transportation**  **projects to**  **go forward**  **in a**  **timely mauner.** 

**If you**  **have any**  **questions or**  **need additional information, please**  **contact Joyce**  **E. Epps,**  **Director of**  **the Bureau**  **of Air**  **Quality, by**  **email at**  **jeepps@pa.gov or**  **by telephone**  **at 717.787.9702.** 

**Sincerely,**

**E. Christopher**  **Abruzzo Acting**  **Secretary**

**Enclosures**COMMONVVEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA STD-521 REV. 06·2010 PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION AND INVOICE

PUBLICATIONS AUTHORIZATION (To be completed by agency): INVOICE NO.

TO; (NAME AND**ADD~ESS** OF NEWSPAPER) 

### ! FEDERAL LD. NOJSOC. SEC. NO, FROM: (NAME AND ADDRESS OF AGENCY) AGENCY 

### ! TELEPHONE NO. Reading Eagle ; 24-0676050 Alex Haas

, 717-787-9495
PO Box 582 DEP

- Bureau of Air Quality Reading, PA 19603-0582 400 Market Street H;::"rrj,;;hi 1m PA 17101

HEREWITH IS ENCLOSED COPY FOR PUBLICATION OF ADVERTISEMENT FOR PROPOSALS TO

r,', EMPLOY j: PURCHASE I; CONTRACT r SELL I TYPE OF ADr.

CLJ\SSIFIED rx LEGAL NOTICE
PUBLISH ADVERTISEMENT (NO. OF TIMES) 

### I MAXIMUM NO. OF LINES DATE

1 x Only March 20, 2013 

### I ORDER NO.

DATES OF INSERTION SIGNKr. '.: U.,RE FOR AG.!=-NQ\ f No Later Than Saturday, March 30,2013 

## :£ 'J. (.'i::.**~/** {/6

You, as vendor, are authorized to publish this advertisement in your newspaper, subject to the terms of this order, as follows: Advertisement to be published in regular advertising columns, no position specified; caption of two lines and signature to be in capitals and subject matter and title of officer to be set solid in type regularly used by your newspaper for public (legal) notice advertising; charge to be made at the rate charged to and paid by commercial advertisers for matter similarly set and occupying similar space; advertisement to be run in the editions specified above. Vendor agrees that, in the performance of any contract awarded to it hereunder, said vendor will not discriminate against any employee or other persons on account of race, color, sex, religious creed, ancestry, age or national origin and that the Commonwealth, upon receipt of satisfactory evidence of such discrimination, shall have the right to cancel said contract. Return this copy at once if you will not accept this advertisement under the terms set forth.
Return original and two copies (signed by the editor or publisher) to the agency listed above. Proof of advertising in the form of a tear sheet must be stapled to original and copies, Original must be notarized.
Commonwealth to be billed only for actual number of printed lines published.

SAP FUND COST CENTER GENERAL LEDGER ACCOUNT CODE % )jif 7c)7'2,1) U - \'1 

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INVOICE (To be completed by publisher)'

DATE OF INSERTION ACTUAL NO. OF PRINTED LINES COST PER LINE TOTAL AMOUNT

1stAd 3/30/13 107 1. 65 , 341.i 55

2nd Ad

I 3rd Ad 1U L luaVl Lunar, e 

### " .!UU Bold Charge 2.:00

I GRAND TOTAL-+ $348.!55

Commonwealth of Pennsylvania County of Berks
Before me, the subscriber, a Notary Public in and for said County, personally came Lynn Schittler
who being duly sworn, doth depose and say that he is' .,..-c--:-_A.,-s_s_i_s_t_a_n"t,--:-,S."e.,-c.,-r-e-t-a-r"-y--------------- the Reading Eagle a general newspaper published at -::-:-R...,e-,-a_d.,-i_n"'g'------:-_-.,-_-,--,

__ :-

__ :--:-:

____ _ that the advertisement, of which tearsheet is attached hereto, was published in the regular advertising columns of said newspaper, in the editions of said newspaper, in all respects as ordered and invoiced above; and that the Commonwealth is not charged therefor at a rate higher than is charged any ordinary advertiser for a similar amount of matter occupying similar space and set in a similar matter, in said newspaper. 

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SIGNATURE OF AFFIANT COMMONWEALTH Of PENNSYLVANIA My commission expires

*This affidavit must be made by the Owner, Publisher, or the designated agent of the owner or publisher. NOTARIAL SEAL ANN L. LIPTAK, NOTARY PU8UC CITY OF READING, BERKS COUNTY MY COMMISSION EXPIRES OCT. 2. 2018

# R e

### "oI.~:> ["J) C! 

## Maret..**~o** 

### ZO)s

I

Proposed Revision I tt> the 5tateImplementation Plan to Update the Motor

Vehicle Emissions BUdJlets in the Reading**Elght~Hour** Ozone

Maintenance Area;

Public Hearing

The PA Department of Environmental Protection (Department) is re- vising the Motor Vehkle Emissions Budgets (MVERs) for the Reading Area Eight-Hour OZone Maintenance Area, The reVised budgets, once approved 

## br the U.S. Environmenta Protection Agency (EPA), will expedite future transporta-**tJ.~·n** planning for the Re ding Area. The Depari' ment wj{[ submitthis, to the EPA as a frnal revi.j;ion to the State (mpterhentation Plan, The EPA developed a new computer model, the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) that**eS:ttmat~s** emissions: from highway vehicles more accurately. The approved maintenance pfan for the Reading Area used the former EPA-approved model, Mobile6, for estimating highway vehicle emissions:. Emissions of ox- ides of nitrogen are est/-> mated to be at higher levels by the new model than what was approved in the original mainte-
nance plan. The Trans:- portation Conformity 

### I regulation requires that

emissions from updated focal transportation improvement plans do not exceed the MVEBs in the area's approved, applicable SIP. By using similar modeling in transportation planning and the SIP, a more realistic comparison between the two will result with less chance of transportation projects being delayed. 1 This proposal is available
on the Department's website at

, www.depweb.state.pa.us

(choose "Air Plans") or through the contact persons listed.

The Department is seeking public comment on this SIP revision and changes made to the motor vehicle emissions budget in the 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Plan for the Reading Area. The Department will hold a public hearing to receive comments on the proposal on Tuesday, April 3:0, 10:00 a.m. in Room Susquehanna A at the Department's South Central Regional Office, 909 Elmerton Avenue, Harrisburg, PA 17110.

Persons wishing to present testimony at the hearing should, contact Alex Haas, P.O. Box 8468, Harrisburg, PA 17105, (717) 787-9495 or aiehaas@pa.govto re- serve a time. If, by April 25, no person has- ex- pressed an interest in testifying at the hearing, the he-aring will be cancelled. The Department will notify the publk if the hearing is cancelled
on the Bureau of Air Quality webpage, http:// www.dep.state.pa.uslde p/deputate/airwaste/agl default.htm. Witnesses should keep testimony to ten minutes and should provide two written copies of their statement at the hearing.

Persons with a disability who wish to attend the hearing and require an auxiliary aid, service or other accommodation to participate in the**pro~** ceeding should contact Alex Haas at (717) 787- 9495 or alehaas@p-a.gov. TDD users- may contact the AT&T Relay servi"ce at (800) 654-5984 to dis- (USS how the**Depart~** ment can best**accommo~** date their needs.

The Department must receive comments no later than April 30. Written comments should be sent to the attention of Chris Trostle, Mobile Sources Section Chief, Bureau of Air Quality, P.O. Box 8468, Harrisburg, PA 17105-8468, or dtrostle@pa.gov. Use "Reading MVEB Revision"
as the subject line In written communication.

MICHAEL L. KRANCER, SecretaryReading Eagle Company

P. O. Box 582 READING, PA 19603-0582 ADVERTISING INVOICE 1 STATEMENT (610) 371-5167 INVOICE NO

100327901-03302013

BILL DATE BILL FROM BILL TO TERMS OF PAYMENT PAGE



## •

•

ORDER NO

03/30/13 0000327901 03/30113 03124/13 03130/13

DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROT.-BAO ALEX HAAS 400 MARKET STREET HARRISBURG, PA 17105

DESCRIPTION

PROPOSEDREVISIONTOTHESTATEIMPLEMENTA TION Bold Text Charge AffidavitMaterial

Proposed Revision to the State Implementation Plan to Update the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the Reading Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area; Public Hearing The PA Department of Environmental Protection (Department) is revising the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets (MVEBs) for the Reading Area Eight-Hour Ozone Maintenance Area. The revised Net Due 30 Days Page 1 of 1 SALES REPRESENTATIVE
Carol Hitchens

BILLED ACCOUNT NO VENDOR NO
301848 301848

ADVERTISER
DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROT.-BAO 

## em"M

207 AMOUNT

Amount Due: $341.55 $2.00 $5.00

$348.55**TearHe~** ________________________________________ . ____________________________________________________ _ BILLED ACCOUNT NO

301848

INVOICE NO

100327901-03302013

*'" Legal ** BILLED ACCOUNT
DEPT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROT.-BAO

BILL DATE
0313012013 MAKE CHECK PAYABLE TO: READING EAGLE COMPANY
P.O. BOX 582 READING, PA 19603-0582 ADVERTISING INVOICE 1 STATEMENT $348.55 Amount Enclosed:

_____ _ REMITTANCE

- DETACH & RETURN THIS PORTION WITH YOUR PAYMENTChris Abruzzo Tom Corbett

Acting Secretary Governor



# Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

Final

Volume I State Implementation Plan Revision: NO x Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the

MOVES2010a Model

Reading Eight

- Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

f or the 1997 Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Stand ard

Ju ly 201 3

Bureau of Air Quality Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468 Harrisburg, PA 17105

- 8468 717

- 787

- 9495This page is intentionally left blank.i



### Table of Contents

VOLUME I

1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW OF GROUND

- LEVEL OZONE

................................ ........................... 1

1.1. 1997 8

- H OUR O ZONE N ATIONAL A MBIENT A IR Q UALITY S TANDARDS 1 1.2. R EADING A REA AND O ZONE SIP R EVISIONS 2 1.3. EPA R EQUIREMENTS FOR D EVELOPING AND R EVISING M AINTENANCE P LANS 3 Table 1: Reading Area 201 2 Design Values

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 5 1.4. M AINTENANCE P LAN D EMONSTRATION AND M OTOR V EHICLE E MISSIONS B UDGETS 6 Table 2: Mo tor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 6 1.5. N ON

- M OBILE I NVENTORY R EVIEW 7 Table 3: Revised Reading Area NOx Emissions from 2004 to 201 8

................................ ................................ ..... 8

2. SOURCE CATEGORY E MISSIONS

................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 9

2.1. P OINT S OURCE C ATEGORY E MISSIONS 9 2.1.1. Control Measures

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 9 2.1.2. Growth Estimates in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan

................................ ................................ ...... 9 2.1.3. Point Source Category Conclusion

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 10 Table 4 : 2009 Point Source Emissions

– Maintenance Plan Estimates V ersus Actual

................................ ...... 10 Table 5: 2018 Point Source Emis sions

– Maintenance Plan Estimate s Versus Revised 2018 Emissions

.......... 11 2.2. A REA S OURCE C ATEGORY E MISSIONS 11 2.2.1. Control Measures

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 11 2.2.2. Growth Estimates in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan

................................ ................................ .... 11 Table 6: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory Updates ( 2002 to 2009 )

.. 12 Table 7: Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Maintenance Plan and Inventory U pdates ( 200 9 to 20 18 ) 12 3 2.2.3. Growth Estimates in MARAMA 2011 Regional Modeling Effort

................................ .............................. 13 2.2.4. Marcellus Shale Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 13 2.2.5. Area Source Category Conclusion

................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 14 2.3. N ONROAD S OURCE C ATEGORY E MISSIONS 14 2.3.1. Control Measures

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 14 2.3.2. Growth Estimates

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 14 2.3.3. Nonroad Source Category Conclusion

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 15 2.4. H IGHWAY S OURCE C ATEGORY E MISSIONS 15 2.4.1. Control Measures

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 15 2.4 .2. Growth Estimates

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 16 Table 8 : Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

................................ ................................ ...... 16 2.4.2. Mobile Source Category Conclusion

................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 16

3. SAFETY MARGINS

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 17

4. MOTOR VEHICLE EMI SSION BUDGET FOR TRA NSPORTATION CONFORMI TY

........................... 17

Table 9: Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 17

5. CONCLUSION

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 18ii

VOLUME II

1. TECHNICAL SUPPORT DOCUMENT

– SEE VOLUME II TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLES

TABLE 1: READING AREA 201 2 DESIGN VALUES 5
TABLE 2: MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGETS 6
TABLE 3: REVISED READING AREA NO X EMISSIONS FROM 2004 TO 2018 8
TABLE 4 : 2009 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS

– MAINTENANCE PLAN ESTIMATES VERSUS ACTUAL 10
TABLE 5 : 2018 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS

– MAINTENANCE PLAN ESTIMATES VERSUS REVISED 2018 EMISSIONS
1 1
TABLE 6 : COMPARISON OF GROWTH FACTORS USED IN MAINTENANCE PLAN AND INVENTORY UPDATES

( 2002 TO 2009 ) 1 2
TABLE 7 : COMPARISON OF GROWTH FACTORS USED IN MAINTENANCE PLAN AND INVENTORY UPDATES

( 2009 TO 2018 ) 1 3
TABLE 8 : REVISED MOTOR VE HICLE EMISSIONS USING MOVES2010A 1 6
TABLE 9 : MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGETS 1 7

APPENDICES

1. APPENDIX C: MAINTENANCE PLAN UPDATE FOR THE READING (BERKS COUNTY) EIGHT

- HOUR MAINTENANCE
AREA: MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION BUDGET REVISIONS USING MOVES2010A

– SEE APPEN DIX C TABLE OF
CONTENTS1



## 1. Introduction and Overview of Ground

- Level Ozone
Maintaining concentrations of ground

- level ozone below the health

- based 8

- hour ozone national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) is important because ozone is a serious human he alth threat and can cause damage to important food crops, forests, and wildlife.

Repeated exposure to ozone pollution may cause a variety of adverse health effects for both healthy people and those with existing conditions including : difficulty breathing, chest pains, coughing, nausea, throat irritation, and congestion. Ozone exposure can exacerbate bronchitis, heart disease, emphysema, and asthma, and reduce lung capacity. Asthma is a significant and growing threat to children and adults. Ozone can agg ravate asthma, causing more asthma attacks, increased use of medication, more medical treatment and more frequent visits to hospital emergency clinics. Because ozone pollution usually forms in hot weather, anyone who spends time outdoors in the summer may be affected, particularly children, the elderly, outdoor workers and people exercising. Children are most at risk from exposure to ozone because they are active outside during the summertime when ozone levels are highest.

Ozone is one of the most pervas ive and detrimental pollutants known to affect vegetation, causing more injury to trees and crops than any other air pollutant in the United States. Ozone interferes with photosynthesis, the process by which plants convert water and sunlight to food. Ozo ne makes plants more susceptible to disease, insects, other pollutants and harsh weather. It damages the foliage of trees and other plants, ruining the landscapes of cities, parks

, forests, and recreation areas. Research has shown that current ozone conc entrations result in reductions in wood growth of over 10 percent in forests of the Northeast United States

. There is strong scientific evidence showing that current levels of ozone are reducing crop yields, particularly in sensitive species such as soybe an, cotton, and peanuts. Annual crop loss alone from ozone

affected soybeans in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio has been calculat ed to fall between $199 million and $346 million. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated national crop yield lo sses due to ozone in excess of $1 billion annually. One of the key components of ozone, oxides of nitrogen, contributes to fish kills and algae blooms in sensitive waterways, such as the Chesapeake Bay.

Ozone is not emitted directly to the atmosphere, but is formed by photochemical reactions between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NO X ) in the presence of sunlight. The long, hot, humid days of summer are particularly conducive to ozone formation, so ozone levels are of concern primarily during the months of May through September. The primary sources of man

- made VOCs and NO X , the ozone precursors, are the evaporation of fuels and solvents (gasoline and consumer products), combustion of fuels (motor vehicles, power plants and no n

- road engines), and industrial processes.



### 1.1

. 1997 8

- Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard s In July 1997, the EPA established identical primary and secondary 8

- hour ozone NAAQS at a concentration of 0.08 parts per million (ppm)

, based on the 3

- year average of the annual fourth

highest daily maximum 8

- hour average ozone concentrations measured in the ambient air at each monitor ed location

. Implementation of the standard s was delayed due to litigation. In April2

2004, EPA designated the Reading Area, which consists of all of Berks County

, as nonattainment for the 1997 8

- hour ozone standard

, based on ambient air quality monitoring data collected from 2001

- 2003. See 69 FR 23858 (April 30, 2004). The Reading Area was one of
seventeen area s in Pen nsylvania designated as an 8

- hour ozone nonattainment area for the 1997 ozone NAAQS

.
On March 12, 2008 , the EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone to 0.075 ppm averaged over 8 hours to provide even greater protection for children, other at

- risk populations and t he environment against the array of ozone

- induced adverse health and welfare effects. See 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008). The EPA had begun a voluntary reconsideration of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in January 2010 to set a more protective 8

- hour ozone standard (75 FR 2938), but withdrew that reconsideration at the request of the President of the United States on September 2, 2011, leaving the 2008 ozone standard in place. On May 21, 2012, the EPA published a final rule for the 2008 8

- hour ozone NAAQS, implement ing the nonattainment area classification approach and attainment deadlines, and revoking the 1997 ozone NAAQS for the purpose of transportation conformity (77 FR 30160)

. The EPA has stated that it will promulgat e an additional implementation rule for the 2008 ozone NAAQS to address State Implementation Plan ( SIP ) requirements and other issues.

S tates will need to submit SIP revisions to demonstrate how they will bring the nonattainment areas into attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS . Nevertheless, the pro mulgation of the new ozone standard does not affect the need for this revision to the approved maintenance plan for the Reading Area ( Reading Ozone M aintenance Plan ) under the 1997 ozone NAAQS

.


### 1.2

. Reading Area and Ozone SIP Revision s On January 25, 2007

, t he Department submitted a SIP revision to the EPA requesting redesignat ion of the Reading Area to attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS . The Department concurrently submitted a SIP revision (2007 Reading SIP revision) to the EPA that includ ed a maintenance plan based on the attainment and continued long

- term attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS for the Reading Area ( Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan)

, the 2002 baseline inventory, and motor vehicle emission budget s (MVEB s ) to be used for purposes of transportatio n conformity. The EPA’s t ransportation c onformity regulation , found at 40 CFR Part 93, Subpart A

, requires that the transportation plan, transportation improvement program ( TIP ) , and project s not from a conforming transportation plan and TIP must be cons istent with the MVEBs in the applicable air quality SIP

. This criterion is satisfied if the state can demonstrate that emissions of the pollutants or pollutant p recursors for which the area is in nonattainment or maintenance

, and for which the applicable SIP contains MVEBs approved or deemed adequate by the EPA

, are less than or equal to the MVEBs established in the applicable SIP or SIP submission

. The metropo litan planning organization for the area , the Berks County Planning Commission, ensures that emi ssions resulting from its TIP are less than the MVEB s in the SIP by completing periodic conformity determinations, which are subject to public comment

. The EPA approved all of the components of the 2007 Reading SIP revision, including the MVEB s , on August 24 , 2007 (72 FR 48559 )

, and redesignated the Reading Area to attainment

.

The approved MVEB s included in the approved Reading Ozone M aintenance Plan were estimated using the EPA

- approved highway emissions model in effect at that time

, the Highway3

Mobile S ource Emission Factor Model version 6.2 ( Mobile6.2 )

. The MVEB in the Reading O zone Maintenance Plan included emission budget s for both NO X and VOC

. On March 2, 2010, the EPA released a new mobile source emissions model called the Motor Vehicle Emission S imulator 2010 (MOVES2010)

. The EPA provided a two

- year grace period to transportation planning organizations

, ending March 2, 2012

, during which the older Mobile6.2 emissions model could be used to model emissio ns for transportation projects i n order to m eet the requirements of transportation conformity ( 75 FR 9411 (March 2, 2010) )

. In September 2010, EPA approved a revised version of the MOVES2010 model (MOVES2010a)

. On October 13, 2011

, the EP A proposed a one

- year extension to the two

- year grace perio d because states and localities need ed more time to transition to using MOVES2010a and to develop the technical capacity to use MOVES2010a ( 76 FR 63575 )

. The EPA finalized t he extension on February 27

, 2012 ( 77 FR 11394 )

. The extension allow s states and localities to better evaluate whether SIPs and MVEBs , or transportation plans and TIPs, should be revised for future conformity determinations. The 1

- year extension provide s additional time that may be critical for nonattainment and maintenance areas to l earn and apply MOVES2010a for regional conformity analyses. Any new transportation conformity analysis started after March 2, 2013

, must use the mos t up

- to

- date version of MOVES.

EPA issued the MOVES2010b version of the model and its associated guidance i n April 2012

. EPA considers b oth MOVES2010a and MOVES2010b to be minor revisions to MOVES2010 that do not significantly affect the results of modeling criteria pollutant estimates for highway vehicles . References to “MOVES” in the remainder of this docum ent relate to all of the approved versions of the model. The highway vehicle emissions modeling for this final SIP revision was already developed significantly using MOVES2010a

. B y the time that version 2010b was issued

, using MOVES201 0b would have been impractical.

Compared to Mobile6.2, t he MOVES model estimates higher NO X emis sions an d

, in some areas

, higher VOC emissions being produced by highway vehicles , depending on the model inputs for a specific area

. Emissions of NO X estimated using MOVES will always be greater for transportation planning than the NO X emissions accounted for in the MVEBs estimated using Mobile6 .2

. As a result, c omparing emissions from the MOVES model to the MVEB s included in the currently approved maintenance plan would not al low local and regional transportation planning agencies to meet the requirements of transportation conformity ; the emissions budget in the maintenance plan would be exceed ed and transportation planning c ould be adversely affected. This is why the Departme nt is updating the MVEB s for the Reading Area using the EPA

- approved emissions model , MOVES2010a

. It is important to mention that higher emission estimates calculated by MOVES 2010a do not mean that emissions from vehicles dramatically increased. The MOVE S m odel better estimates emissions that are already being produced by vehicles. Consequently, the ability of the area to maintain the standard will not be affected by using estimates produced by the new model.



### 1.3

. EPA Requirements for Developing and Revi sing Maintenance Plans

Th e 2007 Reading SIP revision redesignation request is consistent with the September 4, 1992

, EPA memorandum written by John Calcagni, Director , Air Quality Management Division, entitled, Procedures for Processing Requests to Redesig nate Areas to Attainment

. For the4

Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan , t he Department produced an emissions inventory for NO X , VOC, and carbon monoxide (CO) for 2004, the attainment year, which included ambient air quality monitoring data that showed emissions that met t he 1997 ozone NAAQS in the Reading Area. The inventory was based on a “ typical summer day

, ” as required by the EPA. The Department developed an emissions inventory for 2018 that demonstrate d that the area would meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS for a 10

- year period following redesignation of the area to attainmen t. The emissions inventory for 2018, a maintenance year

, showed that emissions of NO X , VOC, and CO in the Reading Area would not exceed emiss ions that occurred in 2004. The maintenance year i s a year at least 10 years in the future that a state chooses to demonstrate that emissions over a 10

- year period of analysis will not lead to an exceedance of the standard

. A state does this by showing that emissions in the maintenance year are less than emissions in the attainment year

. An emissions inventory in the 2007 Reading SIP revision showed that emissions in 2009, the interim year, did not exceed emissions in 2004, the attainment year. The 2009 and 2018 inventories both considered future growth projected from a 2002 baseline year , and included emission reductions from permanent and enforceable control measures

.

Th is final SIP revision updates highway emissions estimates using the MOVES 2010a model

. The Department need not update e missions estim ates for nonroad sources for several reasons

. For one, the growth assumptions for emissions from nonroad sources in the 2007 Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan for the year 2009 were greater than the documented growth that actually occurred from 2002 to 2009

. Additionally, new er, updated emission growth projections to 2018 for nonroad sources are less than emission growth projections for these sources in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan

. A few indicators of growth used to project the area source emissions inventory in the Reading Ozone Mainte nance Plan were less than actual area source growth factors used in this final SIP revision . Also in this final SIP revision

, linearly interpolated 2018 point source emission estimate s derived from the Mid

- Atlantic Reg ional Air Management Association ( MARAMA ) recent effort for modeling ambient particulate matter concentrations

are used to revise 2018 projected point source emissions in the Reading Ozone M aintenance Plan

.

A mbient air quality monitoring results for the R eading Area demonstrate continued attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS (0. 08 ppm , with rounding

, 8 4 parts per billion (ppb))

, as shown in Table 1

. Preliminary monitoring results for 2012 ind icate a design value of 79 ppb.5 Table 1 : Reading Area 201 2 Design Value s
Monitor 2010

4 th
H ighest 20 11

4 th
H ighest 201 2

4 th
H ighest 3

- Year

Average or Design Value 1

Kutztown 42

- 011

- 0006 78 ppb 73 ppb 75 ppb 75 ppb

Reading Airport 42

- 011

- 0011 84 ppb 75 ppb 75 ppb 79 ppb

1 A “ design value ” is th e annual fourth highest daily maximum 8

- hour ozone concentration

, averaged over three years.
The EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality developed guidance titled

, Policy Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 and Subsequent Minor Revisions for State Implem entation Plan Development, Transportation Conformity, and Other Purposes

, (MOVES2010 guidance) EPA 420

- B

- 12

- 010

, April 2012

. This guidance describes requirements f or SIP revisions. For maintenance demonstrations, areas can have a revised mot or vehicle em issions inventory and b udget using MOVES without revising emissions for other sectors included in the applicable SIP or completing additional modeling if:

 The SIP continues to meet applicable requirements when the previous motor vehicle emissions inventori es are replaced with inventories generated by MOVES2010a; and,

 The state can document that growth and control strategy assumptions for non

- motor vehicle sources continue to be valid and minor updates do not change the overall conclusions of the SIP.

The EP A further states that if both of the criteria are met, the state can simply re

- submit the original maintenance plan with the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories

, using the most current version of the MOVES model. However, if either criterion is no t met, the emissions categories in the maintenance plan that have changed must be brought up to date.

Since the second criteri on listed above is not met for point source or area source emissions , t h is final SIP revision includes information addressing the recommendations described in the MOVES2010 guidance , listed here:

 Demonstration that the 1997 ozone NAAQS approved maintenance plans continue to meet applicable requirements with the revised motor vehicle emissions inv entories

, as calculated by the most re cently approved MOVES model

, and recalculation of the attainment year, interim year and maintenance year MVEBs with the latest planning assumptions, including documentation of the updated assumptions;

 Review of the point , area, and nonroad emissions invent o r ies for the interim year and maintenance year to determine if growth and control strategy assum ptions have changed and

, if so, develop ment of an a nalysis to determine if these changes a ffect the conclusion6

of the maintenance plan that air quality will re main compliant with the 1997 ozone NAAQS; and

 A ssessment to confirm excess emissions in the SIP revision exist prior to allocating them to the MVEB s and the quantification of these excess emissions for use in the safety margin applied to the MVEB s.



### 1.4

. Ma intenance Plan Demonstration and Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

Table 2 shows the revised 2004, 2009 and 2018 NO X MVEB s calculated using the latest planning assumptions for the Reading Area using MOVES2010a. Only revised NO X budgets have been included in Table 2 and revised in this final maintenance plan revision , as the existing MOBILE6.2

- based VOC MVEBs are sufficient for future conformity determinations. Assumptions used in the MOVES2010a modeling , including model inputs, growth assumptions and modeli ng methodology

, are provided in Appendix C

. Highway vehicle emissions show a clear

, downward trend.

Table 2 : Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets

Year NO X

Emissions (tons/day) (MOVES2010a) VOC

Emissions (tons/day) (MOBILE6.2)

2004 Attainment Year 34.40 17 .0

2009 Modeled Emissions 26.98 12.1

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 1 2.00 1.0 0

2009 Interim Year Budget 28.98 13.1

2018 Modeled Emissions 12.90 6.5

Conformity Portion of Safety Margins 2 .00 1.0 0

2018 Maintenance Year Budgets 14.90 7.5

1 A “safety margin” is the amount of emissions by which the total projected emissions from all sources of a given pollutant are less than the total emissions that would satisfy the applicable requirement for reasonable further progress, attainment, or maintenance (40 CFR § 93.101). The state may designate a portion of these emissions for use by the Metropolitan Planning Organization ( MPO ) or Department of Transportation ( DOT ) as a safety margin to be used for transportation projects. See 40 CFR § 93.124(a) for application o f a safety margin

.7



### 1.5

. No n - Mobile Inventory Review As explained above, t he EPA states in its MOVES2010 guidance that revisions to existing SIPs and budgets must continue to meet applicable requirements under the Clean Air Act

. A maintenance plan revised to take into account new e mission estima tes due to an update in the highway model must demonstrate that attainment of the standard continues

, even with updated control measures and growth estimates. T his final SIP revision includes i ncreases in the maintenance plan’s NO X emission estimates for the attainment, interim and maintenance year s result ing from revising highway emissions using MOVES instead of the Mobile6.2 model . This final SIP revision also account s for emissions of point, area, and nonroad sources using the latest plan ning assumptions and growth estimates

. Total emissions in the years 2009 and 2018 cannot exceed the emissions in the 2004 attainment year inventory

. The Department concludes that the Reading Area will continue to demonstrate attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS because total emissions of NO X in the interim year and maintenance year will be less than the 2004 attainment year inventory for NO X . Developing a revised highway inventory for CO is unnecessary for this final SIP revision because CO emissions decre ase using MOVES in place of the Mobile6 .2 model

. VOC emissions are not being u pdate d because VOC emission estimates for the Reading Area do not increase to the point at which the existing budget is exceeded when using the MOVES2010a m odel.

Growth and cont rol strategy assumptions have changed for all of the emission cat egories s ince the Reading O zone Maintenance Plan was approved. The changes in these assumptions have generally decreased forecasted emissions in future years. A severe economic recession oc curred since the maintenance plan was approved and employment was greatly depressed

, falling short of the employment projections in the maintenance plan for the year 2009. More controls of source categories have been implemented at both the federal and st ate level. The n onroad NO X emission inventor y is not being revised for the interim and maintenance year s in this final SIP revision

. The p oint source NO X emission inventory is being updated. T he Department compared updated growth estimates with growth a ssumptions and growth estimates in the Reading Ozone M aintenance P lan

. That analysis is included below. More detailed information can be found in Volume II : Technical Support Document.
Some SIP revisions for certain areas in the Commonwealth will require the Department to update growth and strategy assumptions of point and area sources. A number of areas in the Commonwealth are home to newly built point sources

, such as electric generating units ( EGUs )

. Some areas have experienced Marcellus Shale g as de velopment

, which has increased area source emissions.
The EPA developed the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) in 2005 to control emission s from EGUs

. See, 70 FR 25162 ( May 12, 2005 ) and later amendments. The U.S. Court of App eals for the D.C. Circuit rema nded CAIR in December 2008

, without vacating it, in North Carolina v. EPA , 531 F.3d 896, modified, 550 F.3d 1176 (D.C. Cir. 2008

. EPA de veloped the Cross

- Stat e Air Pollution Rule ( CSAPR ) in 2011 to limit the transport of NO X and sulfur dioxide

, which coul d have change d projected emissions of point sources. See, 76 FR 48208 (Aug. 8, 2011), and later revisions. The court vacated CSAPR on August 21, 2012 , however, and ordered EPA to continue administering CAIR pending the promulgation of a valid replacement

. The court recently denied EPA’s requests that the court rehear the case. See, EME Homer City Generation L.P. v. EPA , 696 F.3d 7 (D.C. Cir. 2012 )

, rehearing denied, 2013 U.S. App. LEXIS 1623 and8

1624 (D.C. Cir. Jan. 24, 2013)

. F ollowing the court’s dir ection, CAIR remains in place. On November 19, 2012, EPA Assistant Administrator Gina McCarthy issued a memorandum stating that it is appropriate for EPA to rely on CAIR reductions as permanent and enforceable until court proceedings are resolved or

, if t he vacatur of CSAPR remains in place, until EPA promulgates a replacement and state plans for implementation are approved. Some owners and operators of EGUs have responded to new economic and regulatory developments by closing coal

- fired electric generati on units or by switching fuels (to natural gas) at their facilities. The Department has considered these developments and concluded that some changes apply to EGUs in the Reading Area.

Table 3 show s that NO X emissions in the interim and maintenance years will not exceed overall emissions from all source s in 2004, the attainment year , even though highway emissions for NO X are greater in the Reading Area when modeled by MOVES than when the emissions were estimated by Mobile6.2 in the Reading Ozone M aintenanc e P lan

. Actual emissio ns for the 2009 point sources, area sources grown with updated growth factors to 2009 and updated 2018 projected point source and area source emissions are included in this SIP revision inventory. P rojected nonroad category emission s from the Reading Ozone M aintenance P lan are used for 2009 and 2018 in this final SIP revision . P rojected nonroad sources do not need to be updated because emissions from these categories have not increased appreciably since the Reading Ozone M aintenance P lan was submitted to the EPA

. Attainment of the 1997 ozone standard is maintained by showing revised actual and projected growth for 2009 and 2018 do es not increase overall future emissions included in the Reading Ozone M aintenance P lan

. Th is final SIP revision demonstrates that growth assumptions in the Reading Ozone M aintenance P lan forecast greater growth than what actu ally occurred or will occur in the major source category segments.

Table 3 : Revised Reading Area NO X Emissions from 2004 to 2018

NO X in tons/day

Year Point Area Nonroad Highway Total

2004 16.00 2.12 10.30 34 .40 62 .82

2009 11.51 2.31 8.40 28 .98 51 .20

Δ(2004

- 2009)

- 4.49 0.19

- 1.90

- 5 .42

- 11 .62

2018 12.6 0 2.11 5.40 14 .90 3 5.01

. Δ( 2004

- 2018 )

- 3.4 0

- 0.01

- 4.90

- 19 .50

- 27 .819



## 2. Source Category Emissions

2. 1

. Point Source Category Emission s

2.1 .1

. C ONTROL M EASURES
A t the time of the development of the Re ading Ozone Maintenance Plan , many large sources were affected by the requirements of the federal CAIR

. Pennsylvania implemented NO X control programs, including implementation of CAIR, which control NO X from large industrial boilers

, internal combustion e ngines, electric generating units

, and cement kilns. Another control measure took e ffect for NO X emissions for point sources after the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan was approved. New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) have been promulgated that affect newly manufactured stationary engines installed at facilities after Januar y 1, 2012

. The NSPS standards reduce NOx on 50 percent of new engines initially and are phased in to affect 100 percent of engines beginning in 2014. The NOx emission standard is 95 percent cleaner for the affected engines.

2.1 .2

. G ROWTH E STIMATES IN THE R EADING O ZONE M AINTENANCE P LAN
A nnual point source inventories using historical emissions data reported to the D epartment by point source facilities were included in the Reading O z one M aintenance P lan. The Department developed an emissions inventory of point sources for calendar year s 2002 and 200 4 . The 2002 point source emissions inventory represents a time when the Reading Area did not meet the 1997

ozone NAAQs. The 2004 point source inventory showed emissions that occurred during 2004, the attainment year for the 1997 ozone NAAQS

. Emission projections for the point source sector for 11 states, including Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia

, were prepared for MARAMA by MAC TEC Federal Programs, Inc. (MACTEC). Future year projections were developed by MACTEC so that states could use the point source inventories in their SIPs. Emission projections were pr epared for years 2009 and 2018.
For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future, the point source inventory in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan was divided into two subsectors

– the EGU sector and the non

- EGU
sector. Different projection methods were used for those two sectors. For the EGU sector, the Mid

- Atlantic /Northeast Visibility Union ( MANE

- VU ) effort used the Integrating Planning Model (IPM) to project future electric generation

, as well as to calculate the impact of control
progra ms on future emission levels. T he Reading Area has two EGU emission facilitie s . For the

non

- EGU sector, growth factors were developed by using the EPA’s Economic Growth Analysis System Version 5.0 (EGAS 5.0)

. The U.S. Department of Energy fuel consumption forecasts were used to replace default values in EGAS 5.0 . Also, state

- sup plied population, employment, and other emission projection data were used to update and enhance the EGAS 5.0 default values.
GenOn’s Titus Generating Station, which is one of the top two point source producers of NO X in the Reading Area

, is scheduled for shutdown before the 2018 maintenance year. The SIP revision treats Titus Generating Station as if it will be active in 2018. With this in mind, this revision is conservative in it s emission estimate of NO X for point sources.10

2.1

. 3

. P OINT S OURCE C ATEGORY C ONCLUSION Projected NO X emissions for 2009 in the Reading O zone M aintenance P lan are being revised with actual emissions for point sources in 2009

, because the actual emission s are readily available and allow easy comparison between the projected emission s in the maintenance plan and the actual emissions

. T he Department assessed point source emissions by comparing the actual emissions inventory data submitted to the Department by owners and operators of point

sources for 2009 to the e stimated 2009 NO X emi ssions from point sources in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan . T he Reading O zone Maintenance Plan overestimated point source emissions for 2009

. Table 4 shows that t he projected point source emissions of NO X in the maintenance plan were 5.3 tons per da y more than a ctual 2009 poi nt source emissions . Act ual emission s of NO X declined significant ly from 2004 to 2009

, even when compared to the slow growth in emissions forecasted in the Reading O zone Maintenance Plan

.

Table 4 : 2009 Point Source Emissions

- Maintenance Plan Estimates V ersus Actual

2009 Emissions N O X (tons/day)

Maintenance Plan Estimate 16.8

Actual Emissions 11.5

In this final SIP revision, t he Department revise s the 2018 inventory in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan by using emissio n s from the inventory developed by MARAMA. Because the updated inventory produced by MARAMA use s different years for the baseline and projected inventories

, and different surrogates to estimate growth than those used in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan

, comparison between growth factors used to produce the two inventories is difficult

. The MARAMA projected inventory estim ated emissions for the years 201 7 and 2020 from a baseline 2007 emissions inventory . In order to obtain emission estimates for the 20 18 maintenance year, a straight line interpolation between 200 7 and 2020 was used. P rojected NO X emissions in 2018 using the MARAMA estimates are still well below the 2018 projected emissi ons in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan

, as shown in Table 5

, and thus show that projected emissions in 2018 will fall below the 2004 ( attainment year ) emission levels

.11 Table 5 : 2018 Point Source Emissions

– Maintenance Plan Estimate V ersus Revised 2018 Emissions
2018 Emissions NO X (tons/day)

2018 Maintena nce Plan Estimate 19.2

2018 Revised Estimate (MARAMA Inventory) 1 2.6



### 2.2

. A REA 

### S OURCE 

### C ATEGORY 

### E

MISSIONS

2.2 .1

. C ONTROL M EASURES
The area sector includes, but is not limited to, such diverse emissions source categories as : surface coating; commercial and consumer solvent use; residential heating; open burning ; traffic line painting; and landfill gases. Emissions are produced from a wide number of sources for which actual emissions or direct indicators of emissions are not available. One control measu re took effect for NO X emissions for area sources after the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan was approved. New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) have been promulgated that affect new ly manufactured stationary engines installed at facilities after Januar y 1, 2011. These standards require internal combustion engines to meet a 50 percent reduction in NOx , and will reduce NOx emissions of the affected sources in 2018. The reductions that will result are not included in the inventory. These reductions are me ntioned to demonstrate that emissions will continue to decrease.

2.2.2

. G ROWTH E STIMATES IN THE R EADING O ZONE M AINTENANCE P LAN Area source emission growth factors were developed by using the default configuration in EGAS 5.0. EGAS 5.0 used the Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004) fuel

us e projections. In this final SIP revision, the AEO2005 fuel consumption forecasts were used to replace AEO2004 forecasts. State

- supplied population and employment data were used to replace default dat a, when the state

- specific data was available. Growth estimates were represented by growth factors for each area source classification code ( SCC ) for each county.
County

- level population data for 2000, and projections for 2010 and 2020 from the Pennsylvan ia State Data Center, http://pasdc.hbg.psu.edu/

, were provided to derive growth factors. Th ese data were interpolated to obtain growth factors for projecting emissions from 2002 to 2009 for SCCs that are populatio n based. General employment data for 21 counties or areas for 2000, and projections to 2010 and 2020, were used. Th ese data were also interpolated to estimate growth factors for projecting from 2002 to 2009 and 2018 for nine area source categories. For all other area source categories, AEO2005 forecasts were used for projecting emissions from area source fuel combustion, when available. If AEO2005 forecasts are not available, EGAS 5.0 default factors were used.12

The Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan relied u pon many different types of socioeconomic indicators that served as surrogates to actual sales data to estimate emissions from the area source sector when actual sales data was not available. Population, employment, fuel use and housing data are some of t he surrogates used to estimate emissions. Methodologies for estimating some emissions from some area sources were updated by the EPA in the time since EPA approved the Readi ng Ozone Maintenance Plan, but because the emissions change similarly for the atta inment, interim and maintenance years, the changes will not result in a significant difference between the attainment year’s emissions and the maintenance year’s emissions. As can be seen from Table 6, with the exception of the growth surrogates of commer cial boilers using natural gas and population , emissions would decrease from area sources, since actual growth rates from 2002 to 2009 are lower or nearly the same when compared to the growth rates used in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan. Population is higher than what was in the maintenance plan, but population serves predominatel y as a growth surrogate for VOC emission growth , which is not considered in this SIP revision

. The growth surrogates presented in Table 6 are used to estimate emission growth f or most SCCs in the area source category in the maintenance plan and account for a large majority of the emissions in the area source inventory. Growth from 2009 to 2018 presented in Table 7 shows that the growth in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan wa s estimated to be less than projected growth in the MARAMA inventory for commercial anthracite coal, and commercial natural gas use

. Revised projected growth for other sources were very similar to growth projections in the maintenance plan.

Table 6 : Comp arison of Growt h F actors Used in Maintenance Plan and

Inventory Updates ( 2002 to 2009 )

Growth Surrogates Actual Growth (Census Data) Maintenance

Plan Surrogate Estimates (2006)

2009 Population * 1. 0696 1.0381

2009 Total Employment 0.9928 1.0645

2009 Commercial Boilers Natural Gas 1.0702 1.0105

2009 Commercial Boilers, Distillate 0.979 7 1.0731

2009 Commercial Boilers, Coal 0.652 2 1.0481

*Growth for the year 2009 is computed from 2002 to 2009.13 Table 7 : Comparison of Growth Factors Used in Ma intenance Plan

and Inventory Updates ( 2009 to 201 8 )

Growth Surrogates Revised Growth from MARAMA Inventory (2009

- 2018) * Maintenance

Plan Growth (2009

- 2018) *

Population 1.0851 1.0472 Employees 0.9998 1.0779 Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9136 0.9983 Ant hracite, Commercial 1.0230 0.9865 All Combustor Types, Distillate Oil, Residential 0.8226 0.9598

Boilers and Internal Combustion Engines, Natural Gas, Commercial 1.0687 1.0521

Combustor Types, Natural Gas, Residential 1.0188 1.0181

*Growth for the year 2018 is given as a factor estimating growth from 2009 to 2018. Due to different time ranges used for growth estimates in the maintenance plan and more recent inventory data, growth based on 2002 was impossible to estimate. This method allows for a direc t comparison.

2.2 .3

. G ROWTH E STIMATES IN MARAMA 2011 R EGIONA L M ODELING E FFOR T The development of g rowth factors for the MARAMA 2011 regional model ing effort f or area

sources used one or a combination of the following as surrogates for growth: AEO2010

, popu lation data

, or employment data. A direct comparison can not be made between the growth factors based on AEO2005 or population in the original maintenance plan and this final SIP revision which uses growth factors from MARAMA’s 2011 regional modeling effor t

. As years pass, different inventory methodologies are developed. This final SIP revision uses the best method to compare emissions inventories that use differing methodologies. (See Volume II : T echnical Support Document). T he MARAMA 2011 regional mod eling e ffort d eveloped growth factors for most SCCs us ing AEO2010 or county level population. Employment data was derived from N orth A merican I ndustry C lassification S ystem to the state level. Since employment data to the county level was not available f rom the MARAMA 2011 modeling , s tate employment data was applied to all SCCs that use employment data and counties in this final SIP revision

. The recession reduced e mployment

, which fell short of the pr ojections in the maintenance plan for the year 2009

. Starting from depressed employment levels in 2009, it is unlikely that employment projections in the maintenance plan will be exceeded in 2018

, even if employment growth recovers to normal levels in the near future

.
2.2 .4

. M ARCELLUS S HALE E MISSIONS Signi ficant infrastructure development to extract Marcellus Shale n a tural g as in some Pennsylvania c ounties has occurred since the 2007 Reading Area SIP revision was submitted to the EPA by the Department. Area source emissions result from the placement of dri lling14

equipment, gathering lines and compressor stations. The Reading Area has not experienced any Marcellus Shale development and is not expected to experience any of this development in the future

.
2.2 .5

. A REA S OURCE C ATEGORY C ONCLUSION Projected area s ource NO X emissions in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan ar e being revised in this final SIP revision . Area source emissions are being revised because updated growth factors do not clearly demonstrate that emissions growth in the Reading Ozone Maintenanc e SIP

over

- predicted emissions. Revis ed emission growth estimates for fuel use, which produces NO X emissions, is sufficiently non

- predictive to demonstrate that area source emissions decreased when compared to the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan

. Therefor e, area source emissions in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan were revised for both 2009 and 2018. Projected e missions of NO X from area sources were slightly higher in 2009 (see Table 3) and nearly the same in 2018

.


### 2.3

. Nonroad Source Category Emissions

2.3 .1

. C ONTROL M EASURES
The nonroad category contains many different types of equipment. The Department used NONROAD2005 for the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan

. All versions of t he EPA’s NONROAD M odel estimate emissions for over 200 types of engines and vehicles. Nonroad engines and vehicles can be used for such applications as construction, lawn and garden care, farming

, and industr ial applications. In addition, emissions from three types of activities

, including aircraft, locomotive, and commercia l m arine vessel activities

, are not estimated in the NONROAD M odel but are in the nonroad category

. The model went through one major revision since it was used for the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan

. NONROAD2008a is the latest version of this model. This new version of the model incorporate s two nonroad sector reduction strategies that were not included in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan :

 Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine engines ( See Control of Emissi ons of Air Pollution From Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression

- Ignition Engines Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder

, 73 FR 25098

, May 6, 2008 ); and

 The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and recreational marine rule ( See Control of Emis sions From Nonroad Spark

- Ignition Engines and Equipment

, 73 FR 59034 , October 8, 2008 ).

For the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan , t he Department modified files in the NONROAD 2005 m odel

, when state specific data was available

, that affect emission categories such as residential lawn and garden and recreational marine vessels

.
2.3 .2

. G ROWTH E STIMATES
Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan as a result of additional controls mentioned above

, and o ther tier level controls that have been phased in since 2004 for engin es used in the nonroad sector . The fleet turnover15

that occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by newer equipment and vehicles that meet more stringe nt emission standards has continued to lower emissions in the nonroad sector since the late 1990s

, and will continue to do so for the next 10
years

. Emission reduction s occurred across all segments of the nonroad category

, including construction equipment , farming equipment, locomotives, and lawn and garden equipment. Furthermore, the recession significantly lowered construction, railroad, aircraft, and industrial activity, and

, consequently

, lowered emissions. Even if growth returns to pre

- recession lev els, overall growth will likely remain lower than what was predicted in the maintenance plan up to the 2018 maintenance year.

2.3 .3

. N ONROAD S OURCE C ATEGORY C ONCLUSION The Department demonstrated through the analysis above that it is reasonable to assume t hat emissions growth for nonroad sources that has occurred, and is occurring

, is less than the growth forecasted in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan for NO X for both maintenance years

, 2009 and 2018. The Department compared growth estimates between thos e used in NONROAD2005 and NONROAD2008 a, and took into account fleet turnover

, effects of the recession and the two new standards introduced in 2008 . Emissions of NO X from the nonroad source sector have not increased as a result of any new activity or upda te in methodology . Therefore, no revisions to the nonroad source sector for NO X emissions are necessary.



### 2.4

. Highway Source Category Emission s

2.4.1

. C ONTROL M EASURES Assumptions for vehicle emissions standards have not been changed signi ficantly in the modeled analysis from when the Reading Ozone Maintena nce Plan was submitted to EPA. Pennsylvania began implementation of California emission standards, which are incorporated by reference in Pennsylvania regulations, for model year 2005 for diesel

- p owered heavy

- duty trucks, and model
year 2008 for passeng er cars and light

- duty trucks.

In January 2012, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved significant revisions to its regulations for criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from passeng er cars, light

- duty
tr ucks and medium

- duty vehicles. The amendments, referred to as LEV III, were approved by California’s Office of Administrative Law (OAL) on August 7, 2012, and will become effective in model year (MY) 2015 for criteria pollutants and in MY 2017 for greenhouse gas es. The requirements were automatically incorporated by reference as part of the Pennsylvania Clean Vehicles Program, to the extent the amendments ap ply to Pennsylvania’s program. See, 25 Pa. Code §126.411(b). On August 28, 2012, the EPA and the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a joint Final Rulemaking to extend the National Program of harmonized greenhouse gas and fuel economy standards to MYs 2017

- 2025 passen ger vehicles. Neither the California nor the EPA

- NHTSA Final Rulemaking ha s been analyzed as to its effect on future year emission estimates of NO X , at the t ime of the development of this final SIP revision. However, it is reasonable to assume that NO X e missions will decrease as these vehicles replace older vehicles during fleet turnover.16

2.4.2

. G ROWTH E STIMATES
Overall e missions from highway vehicles will continue to decrease as new vehicles take the place of older vehicle s during normal fleet turnover. Fleet turnover is the greatest driver in lowering emissions from highway vehicles. Fleet turnover has been slower than forecast in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan . This is

, in part

, a result of the recent recession. Other factors have some impact on emissions from the highway source category

, such as ch anges in fleet age, vehicle miles traveled, and the fleet mix of vehicles

. The fleet age is also increasing as people operate their vehicles for a longer period of time. This will reduce the rate of fleet turnover and the reductions expected in emissions. It is difficult to compare vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in Pennsylvania between the Reading O zone Maintenance Plan and this final SIP revision because the method for estimating VMT has changed. Nat ionally, there was a slight decline in VMT during the recession. The percentage of vehicles in Pennsylvania that are light

- duty trucks is also shrinking. Consumers are purchasing more passenger cars than light

- duty trucks. Passenger

cars tend to have lo wer emissions.

E mission estimates of NO X were developed using MOVES2010a and the latest planning assumptions. Emissions have been es timated for 2004 ( attainment year ) , 2009 and 2018 (maintenance years)

. The MOBILE6.2 emission estimates from the orig inal maintenance plan have been included in Table 8 to illustrate relative changes in emissions.

Table 8 : Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a (tons/summer day)

Pollutant Original MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions

2004 2009 2018 20 04 2009 2018 NO X 29.8 20.7 8.4 34.4 27.0 12.9 VOC 17.0 1 2 .1 6 .5 N/A* N/A N/A *VOC budgets were not recalculated using MOVES2010a. The VOC MVEBs developed with Mobile6.2 are approved for transportation conformity.

Table 8 shows the MOVES model estimates NO X emissions in 2009 and 2018 that exceed the M OBILE6.2

- derived emissions in the Reading O zone Maintenance Plan . This would cause transportation planning emissions estimates using MOVES to exceed the MVEBs. The updated NO X MVEBs provided in Table 9 wil l help ensure that the Reading Area can demonstrate transportation conformity using MOVES2010a

, once the conformity grace period expires

, while the emissions estimates still demonstrate that the Reading Area demonstrates attainment with the 1997 ozone NAAQ S

.
2.4.2

. M OBILE S OURCE C ATEGORY C ONCLUSION
This final SIP revision includes revise d MVEBs for Berks County using updated highway vehicle emissions estimates derived from MOVES

. Appendix C of this final SIP revision replaces the corresponding sections of the original Appendix C in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan . Appendix C of this final SIP revision describes the highway modeling metho dology necessary to produce accurate emission estimates from the MOVES model

.17



## 3. Safety Margins

Table 3 show s that the emissions in the interim and maintenance year s , even when using conservative estimates in the Reading O zone Maintenance Plan

, for point, area and nonroad sectors, provide a significant safety ma rgin for continued maintenance.

Therefore, a portion of those safety margins is being allocated to transportation projects to help ensure that any future planning assumption updates will not negatively impact the area’s ability to demonstrate transportation conformity. Adequate safety margins will also defer the ne ed for future SIP revisions , where the purpose of the SIP revision is only to update numbers and not to document any actual emissions reductions to the atmosphere.
To help ensure that the transportation conformity process is not needlessly delayed, a 2.0 t on / day safet y margin for NO X has been applied to the MVEB s in 2009 and 2018 in this final SIP revision . All indication s are that the 2009 and 2018 emission estimates made for point, area and nonroad sources in the Reading Ozone M aintenance P lan are higher than any actual emissions for 2009 and revised estimates for 2018 in this SIP revision

. Table 3 quantitatively shows that these safety margins will continue to allow the area to remain well below the 2004 attainment year emissions inventory cap, thereby ensuring that future air quality will continue to meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS

. 

## 4. Motor Vehicle Emission Budget s f or Transportation Conformity
The Department proposes to establish budgets for highway emissions in order to ensure that transportation emissions do not impede clea n air goals for almost the next decade . The information in Table 9, once EPA approves this final SIP revision for the purposes of transportation conformity, will establish MVEBs for Berks County.

Table 9 : Motor Vehicle Emissions Budget s

Calendar Year Pollutant

NO X

2009 Predicted

Safety Margin 24,50 1 kilograms/summer day (27.0 tons/summer day)

1815 kilograms/ summer day (2.0 tons/ summer day) 2009 Budget 26,31 6 kilograms day (29.0 tons/summer day)

2018 Predicted

Safety Margin 11,706 kilograms day (12.9 tons/summer day)

1815 kilogram/summer day (2.0 tons/summer day)

2018 Budget 13,521 kilograms/summer day (14.9 tons summer day)18



## 5

. Conclusion
By examining actual and projected emissions, in creased controls for all emissions categories , and evidence that actual emissions growth for point source, area source, and nonroad source categories has been less than the projected emissions growth in the approved Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan

, the Department has shown that the conclusion in the R eading Ozone Maintenance Plan that the Reading Area will continue to maintain attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS remains valid

, even after updating the highway emissions using the new EPA

- approved MOVES model. Updating NO X emissions in the MVEB s will not negatively affect the Reading Area’s ability to maintain the 1997 ozone NAAQS

. In this final SIP revision, the Department has updated emissions of NO X that were included in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan for point, area and highway sources. Emissions of nonroad sources were not updated from the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan because it was shown that growth in emissions for those sources decreased or was unaffected.Chris Abruzzo Tom Corbett

Acting Secretar y Governor



# Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

Final

VOLUME II: Technical Support Document State Implement ation Plan Revision: NOx Motor Ve hicle Emission Budget Revisions Based on the

MOVES2010a Model

Reading Eight

- Hour Ozone Maintenance Area

March 201 3

Bureau of Air Quality Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection

P.O. Box 8468 Harrisburg, PA 17105

- 8468 717

- 787

- 9495[ This page intentionally left blank. ]i



### Contents

Introduction

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 1
Point Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ................. 1

2009 Point Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 1
2018 Point Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ .... 6
Area Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 12
2009 Area Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 12
2018 Area Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 17
Nonroad Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 24
Highway Source Category Emissions

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 25



### Tables

Table 1 : Point Source Emissions for 2009

– SIP Estimated V ersus Actual

................................ ................. 2

Table 2 : Actual 2009 Annual NO X Point Source Inventory for the Reading Ozone Maintenance Area by
Fac ility Source

................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 2

Table 3 : Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan Emission Estimates for 2018

................................ ................... 7

Table 4 : Revised Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan Emissions Estimates of Non

- EGU and EGU Point Sources for 2018 (MARAMA 2007 B aseline and 2020 P rojected I nventories)

................................ .... 7

Table 5 : MARAMA 2018 Annual Baseline and Projected NO X Point Source Inventories for the Reading Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source

................................ ................................ ......................... 8

Table 6 : Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Reading Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to Projected Growth in the Reading Ar ea Maintenance Plan (2002

- 2009)

................................ .............................. 1 3

Table 7 : NO X Affected Area Source Emission Categories in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Areas for Calendar Year 2009

................................ ................................ ................................ .............................. 1 4

Table 8 : Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Reading Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to the Projected G rowth in the Reading Area Maintenance Plan (2009

- 2018)

................................ .............................. 1 8

Table 9 : Affected NO X Area Source Emission Categories in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Areas for the Calendar Year 2018

................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 1 9

Table 10 : Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a

................................ ........................... 2 5ii [ T his page intentionally left blank. ]1



## Introduction
This Technical Support Document provides detailed information on the categories of point, area, nonroad, and highway sources of oxides of nitrogen (NO X ) emission e stimates and assumptions. D ata shown in th is document were used in the State Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance Plan and Bas e Year Inventory

– Reading Eight

- Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area

, which is he reafter referred to as the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan . Other data and assumption s outli ned in the Technical Support Document are also used in this final State Implementation Plan (SIP) revision to the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan that is entitled, “ State Implementation Plan Revision: NO X and VOC Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Base d on the MOVES2010a Model

– Reading Eight

- Hour Ozone Maintenance Area ” The Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan revision demonstrates that replacing highway emissions estimates using the MOVES m odel instead of the Mobile6 m odel to generate emissions estimates wi ll not cause emissions from all sources in the maintenance year to exceed all emissions in the attainment year. This Technical Support Document will describe how emission estima tes and emission growth rates that we re used in both the Reading Ozone Mainten ance Plan and the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan revision were developed for all source categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway)

. 

## Point Source Category Emissions

Point sources include emissions from large commercial, institutional, and industrial fa cilities, such as chemical manufacturing facilities, large waste disposal sites, and large heating and electric generating units (EGUs). Emission projections used in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan were prepared for the point source sector for 11 state s, including Pennsylvania, and the Distri ct of Columbia

, for the Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) by MACTEC Federal Programs, Inc. Future year projections were developed by MACTEC so that states could use the projections as invent ories in their SIPs. Estimates were prepared for years 2009 and 2018

, and took into consideration both growth in economic activity and additional control s required by regulation

. For the purpose of projecting emissions into the future for all of the state s ’ ozone maintenance plan s , the point source inventory of emissions is divided into two subsectors

– the EGU sector and the non

- EGU sector. Different projection methods are used for those two sectors. The Reading Area has two EGU emission sources. The R eading Area contains many non

- EGU point

sources. For the non

- EGU sector, growth factors were developed by using The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s ( EPA ) Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) Version 5.0. U.S. Department of Energy fuel c onsumption forecasts were used to replace default values for combustion sources in EGAS 5.0 . Also, state

- supplied population, employment, and othe r emission projection data were used if either EGAS 5.0 values did not exist or if the state

supplied data wa s deemed better than values given by EGAS 5.0.



### Point Source Emissions for 2009 Table 1 gives tota ls of NO X emissions for both 2009 projected emissions in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan and the actual 2009 Reading Area emissions reported to the Departm ent after2

the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan was developed

. 1 Table 1 demonstrates that the assumptions that point source emissions in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan for 2009 were

ov erestimated for NO X . Table 2 lists the actual 2009 NO X emissions from the individual facilities in the Reading Area. Two large facilities in the Reading Area, Titus Generating Station and Lehigh Cement, produce 75 percent of all point source NO X emissions. Fuel throughputs of these two facilities are such that average sum mer throughputs are approximate ly the same as
average annual throughputs. Therefore, when the annual emissions were divided by 365 days in a year, the result approximates average summer day emissions.

Actual Emissions for 2009

Table 1: Point Source Emis sions for 2009

- SIP Estimated V ersus Actual

Emissions for 2009 NO X (tons/day)

Emissions in Maintenance Plan 16.8

Actual Emissions (actual reported annual emissions in Table 2 divided by 365 days) 11.5

Table 2: Actual 2009 Annual NO X Point Source Inventory for the Reading Ozone

Maintenance Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO X (tons per year)

420110096 ADELPHI KITCHENS

INC/ROBESONIA 0 .3

420110054 ATLAS MINERALS &

CHEM/MERTZTOWN 4.1

420110095 BALDWIN HDWR

CORP/READ ING PLT 4.7

420110354 BERKS CAN CO INC/BERKS

CAN PLANT 0 .1

1 Air Information Management System Submittal, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, 20093 EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO X (tons per year)

420110002 BERKS CNTY/BERKS CNTY

COMPLEX 22.4

420110028 BOYERTOWN FOUNDRY

CO/FKA EAFCO 2.9

420110075 CAMBRIDGE LEE IND

/READING TUBE DIV 15.4

420110101 CAN CORP OF

AMER/BLANDON PLT 9.5

4201100 31 CARPENTER TECH

CORP/READING PLT 169.2

420110099 CHIYODA AMER

INC/CAERNARVON 3.3

420110438 CRAFT MAID KITCHEN

INC/READING 0 .3

420111012 DAIRY FARMERS OF AMER

INC/READING 9.6

420110365 DELAWARE CNTY

SWA/ROLLING HILLS MUNI WASTE LDFL 5.5

420110636 DYE R QUARRY INC/DYER

QUARRY 6.6

420110274 EAST PENN MFG CO

INC/BATTERY ASSEMBLY 41.3

420110478 EAST PENN MFG CO

INC/KUTZTOWN 0 .9

420110014 EAST PENN MFG CO

INC/SMELTER PLT 57.34 EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO X (tons per year)

420110355 EJB PAVING &

MATERIALS/ONTELAUNEE 9.5

420110638 EXIDE TECH/READING

FORMATION & DIST CTR 3.7

420110034 EXIDE TECH/READING

SMELTER 59.4

420110446 FLEETWOOD IND/LEESPORT 0 .1

420111066 FR&S INC/PIONEER CROSSING

LDFL 16.2

420110045 GENON REMA LLC/TITUS GEN

STA 1529.2

420110554 GLEN GERY CORP/MID

ATLANTIC PLT 18.6

4201104 58 GREEN GAS PIONEER

CROSSING ENERGY LLC/EXETER 28.1

420110867 ICON REAL ESTATE

INC/READING 0 .6

420110016 INTERSTATE

CONTAINER/READING PLT 0 .8

420110039 LEHIGH CEMENT CO

LLC/EVANSVILLE CEMENT PLT & QUARRY 1610.2

420110476 MCCONWAY & TORLEY

LLC/KUTZTOWN FOUNDRY 27.8

420110091 MORGAN

CORP/CAERNARVON TWP 1.55 EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO X (tons per year)

420110820 NEW MORGAN LDFL CO

INC/CONESTOGA LDFL NEW MORGAN B 15.8

420110427 ONTELAUNEE POWER OPR CO

LLC/ONTELAUNEE PLT 61.4

420110097 OROGRAIN BAKERIES MFG

INC/READING PLANT 2.3

420110431 PA DPW/H AMBURG CTR 11.8

420110471 PA DPW/WERNERSVILLE

STATE HOSP 15.2

420110008 PA STATE SYS OF HIGHER

ED/KUTZTOWN UNIV OF PA 7.9

420110105 READING TERM

CORP/SINKING SPRING TERM 0 .1

420110089 READING TRUCK BODY

/READING 3.1

420111018 ROEBERG

ENTERPRISES/YORGE YS CLNRS 0 .5

420110637 SEALED AIR CORP/READING

PLT 11.0

420110237 SUNOCO PARTNERS MKT &

TERM LP/MONTELLO 2.7

420110088 TEXAS EASTERN

TRANS/BECHTELSVILLE 211.6

420110087 TEXAS EASTERN

TRANS/BERNVILLE STA 163.26 EPA AFS Number Facility Name NO X (tons per year)

420110473 UNITED CORRSTACK

LLC/READING 29. 8

420112001 WILLIAMS

METALFINISHING/SINKING SPRING 0 .1

420110090 YUASA BATTERY

INC/LAURELDALE 4.8

Total Actual Annual Emissions 4200.5



### Point Source Category 2018 Emissions Ideally, emissions growth could be compared between what was assumed in the Re ading Ozone Maintenance Plan and recently revised assumptions for emissions growth. Bot h sets of assumptions are valid because the EPA requires that assumptions in growth be updated with each revision to the maintenance plan. If the revised assumptions f or growth are less than what was assumed in the original maintenance plan, then it can be easily shown that emissions in the maintenance years are still below the emissions in the attainment year. However, when revised growth in some types of point source s is higher, and in some types , the growth is lower, emissions growth cannot easily be compared to show the new assumptions still maintain the

o zone standard. Then, a projected emissions inventory needs to be developed and compared. For the Reading Area, a projected point source inventory for the maintenance year 2018 needed to be developed to show maintenance with the ozone standard.
The 2018 point source inventory for the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan was developed for MARAMA by MACTEC . More recently, an emission s inventory of all emission source categories (point, area, nonroad, and highway) was developed by MARAMA and MACTEC for a regional modeling effort. Table 3 and Table 4 compar e total emissions of NO X produced by

non

- EGU and EGU sources in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan with the recently developed invent ories

. During the last year, MARAMA developed inventories for the baseline year o f 2007 and projected years of 2013, 2017, 2020, and 2025. 2 The difference in the inven tory years for the inv entory used in the Reading Ozone M aintenance P lan and new MARAMA/MACTEC inventory development efforts did not allow for easy comparison of growth factors used for

2 MARAMA 2007, 2017, and 2020 Baseline and Projected Inventories, Version 3, Julie McDill, Mid

- Atlantic Regional Management Association, Towson, MD, January 2012.7

projecting emissions

. Projected e missions in 2018 were estimated for the maintenance plan

re visions using straight

- line interpolation betwee n the 2007 MARAMA baseline inventory and the 2020 MARAMA projected year inventory using the following equation:

2018 emissions = 2007 E missions

- ( (2007 E missions

– 2020 emissions) *( 2018

- 2007 ) ÷

(2020

- 2007) )
Emission projections of non

- EGU and EGU point sources in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan were overestimated for the year 2018 when compared to newer emissions data derived by MARAMA. See Tables 3 and 4.

Table 3 : Reading Ozo ne Maintenance Plan Emission Estimates for 2018

Year NO X

Emissions (tons/year) NO X

Emissions (tons/day)

2018 7053* 19.2

* Annual 2018 emissions from Titus Generating Station were not included in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan. Annual emissions are an estimate after including Titus’s annual emissions , which were based on the daily emissions in the maintenance plan

.

Table 4 : Revised Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan Emissions Estimates of Non

- EGU and EGU Point Sources for 2018 (MARAMA 2007 B aseline

and 20 20 P rojected I nventories)

Year NO X

Emissions (tons/year) NO X

Emissions (tons/day)

2007 (Baseline) 5927.9 16.4

2020 (Projected) 43 53.8 11.9

2018 (Interpolated) 459 5.2 12.6

Table 5 show s actual 2007 and projected 2020 facility emissions of NO X for non

- E GU and EGU point source in the Reading area.8

Table 5 : MARAMA 2018 Annual Baseline and Projected NO X Point Source Inventories for

the Reading Ozone Maintenance Area by Facility Source

EPA AFS Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline NO X Emissions 2020

Project ed NO X Emissions

420110096 ADELPHI KITCHENS

INC/ROBESONIA 0 .0 0.0

420110054 ATLAS MINERALS &

CHEM/MERTZTOWN 12.3 12.3

420110095 BALDWIN HDWR

CORP/READING PLT 8.5 11.7

420110354 BERKS CAN INC/BERKS CAN

PLANT 0.1 0.2

420110002 BERKS CNTY/BERKS CNTY

COM PLEX 21.4 21.4

420110028 BOYERTOWN FOUNDRY

CO/FKA EAFCO 3.1 3 .2

420110075 CAMBRIDGE LEE

IND/READING TUBE DIV 14.3 14.9

420110101 CAN CORP OF AMER/BLANDON

PLT 4 .0 5.6

420110031 CARPENTER TECH

CORP/READING PLT 236.3 281.5

420110099 CHIYODA AMER

INC/CAER NARVON 4.4 6.2

420110438 CRAFT MAID KITCHEN

INC/READING 0 .0 0 .0

420111012 DAIRY FARMERS OF AMER.

INC/READING 8.3 9.59

EPA AFS Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline NO X Emissions 2020

Project ed NO X Emissions

Emissions Reduction Credits DECORATIVE SPECIALTIES/DSI

INC

. 9.4

420110365 DELAWARE CNTY

SWA/ROLLING HILLS MUNI WASTE LDFL 9.2 9.7

420 110636 DYER QUARRY INC/DYER

QUARRY 8.1 8.5

420110274 EAST PENN MFG CO

INC/BATTERY ASSEMBLY 37.5 53.2

420110478 EAST PENN MFG CO

INC/KUTZTOWN 1.1 1.1

420110014 EAST PENN MFG CO

INC/SMELTER PLT 62.1 62.9

420110355 EJB PAVING &

MATERIALS/ONTELAUNEE 12.0 1 2.2

420110638 EXIDE TECH/READING

FORMATION & DIST CTR 3.5 3.5

420110034 EXIDE TECH/READING

SMELTER 60.8 60.8

420110446 FLEETWOOD IND/LEESPORT 0.3 0 .4

420111066 FR&S INC/PIONEER CROSSING

LDFL 16.2 17.1

420110045 GENON REMA LLC/TITUS GEN

STA /NON

- POINT 3 .5 4.4

420110045 GENON REMA LLC/TITUS GEN

STA /POINT 2474.4 2278.910

EPA AFS Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline NO X Emissions 2020

Project ed NO X Emissions

420110554 GLEN GERY CORP/MID

ATLANTIC PLT 31.1 31.1

420110040 GLIDDEN DEA/ICI

PAINTS/READING 5 .0 5.4

420110114 GRAFICA COMMERCIAL

PRINTING 0.2 0.2

420110867 ICON REAL ESTATE

INC/READING 1.4 1.9

420110016 INTERSTATE

CONTAINER/READING PLT 1.1 1.2

420110039 LEHIGH CEMENT CO

LLC/EVANSVILLE CEMENT PLT & QUARRY 2296.6 651.0

420110476 MCCONWAY & TORLEY

LLC/KUTZTOWN FOUNDRY 22.9 23.5

420110091 MORGAN CORP/CAERNARVON

TWP 0.5 0.6

420110820 NE W MORGAN LDFL CO

INC/CONESTOGA LDFL NEW MORGAN B 37.9 40.0

420110427 ONTELAUNEE POWER OPR CO

LLC/ONTELAUNEE PLT 4.0 4.0

420110427 ONTELAUNEE POWER OPR CO

LLC/ONTELAUNEE PLT 31.2 40.6

420110097 OROGRAIN BAKERIES MFG

INC/READING PLANT 2.6 3.1

420110431 P A DPW/HAMBURG CTR 11.0 11.311

EPA AFS Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline NO X Emissions 2020

Project ed NO X Emissions

420110471 PA DPW/WERNVILLE STATE

HOSPITAL 16.4 17.0

420110008 PA STATE SYS OF HIGHER

ED/KUTZTOWN UNIV OF PA 25.1 26.8

420110105 READING TERM CORP/SINKING

SPRING TERM 0.0 0.0

420110089 READING TRUCK BODY

/READING 4.4 5.8

420 111018 ROEBERG

ENTERPRISES/YORGEYS CLNRS 0.6 0.7

420110637 SEALED AIR CORP/READING

PLT 17.5 19.4

420110111 SFS INTEC/WYOMISING 0.1 0.1

420110237 SUNOCO PARTNERS MKT &

TERM LP/MONTELLO 2.2 2.3

420110088 TEXAS EASTERN

TRANS/BECHTELSVILLE 222.5 316.0

420 110087 TEXAS EASTERN

TRANS/BERNVILLE STA 167.6 238.0

420110473 UNITED CORRSTACK

LLC/READING 19.3 27.4

420112001 WILLIMAS METAL

FINISHING/SINKING SPRING 0.2 0.2

420110090 YUASA BATTERY INC/

LAURELDALE 4.9 6.812

EPA AFS Number Facility Name 2007 Baseline NO X Emissions 2020

Project ed NO X Emissions

Total Annual Point Source NOx Emissions 593 7.3 43 53.8



## Area Source Category Emissions
The area source category include s emissions from sources such as surface coating, solvent use, residential and commercial heating, and other sources that emit small amounts of emissions on a per use basis but hav e a large number of users. The Reading Ozone M aintenance P lan relied on a number of socioeconomic indicators to es timate emissions

, and projection s of emissions

, such as: population, industrial employment, employment, and industry specific growth factors. In the maintenance plan, a baseline area source inventory of 2002 was grown using socioeconomic factors of expected population and employment growth. For some sources, such as coal

- , distillate

- , or natural gas

- fired boilers, data from the 2005 Annual E nergy Outlook or the EGAS model was used to predict future grow th and emissions. For other area source categories , state

specific industry growth estimate s supplied by the Department were used.



### Area Source Category 2009 Emissions

Table 6 shows a recent e stimate of actual socioeconomic indicators . A ctual growth that occurred from 2002 to 2009 was derived from data published by the U.S. Department of Commerce

, Bureau of Census 3

, 4

, 5 and the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 6

. The actual grow th is comp ared side

- by

- side with the predicted growth from the Reading O zone

3 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Population Estimates Program," T1. Population Estimates [10] data Set: 2008 Population Estimates, available from http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO

- EST2009

- 01.html, accessed October 2011.

4 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Housing Unit Estimates, Data Set 2002 and 2 009 Population Estimates, Note: For information on errors stemming from model error, sampling error, and non

sampling error, see: http://www.census.gov/popest/topics/methodology, accessed October 2011.

5 Employee and establishment numbers: U.S. Census Bure au, County Business Patterns, http://factfinder.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html

6 Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, State Energy Data System

- Consumption, Physical Units, 1960

- 2006, available from: http://www.eia.gov/state/seds /seds

states.cfm?q_state_a=PA&q_state=Pennsylvania13

M aintenance P lan. The Reading O zone M aintenance P la n over

- predicted growth for most area sources for the 2002 to 2009 timeframe. The Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan u nder

- predicted growth for t wo growth surrogates , population growth and natural gas combustion , and therefore, under

- predicted emissions in the Reading Area for sources that depend on those surrogate s for determining emissions growth

. Ho wever, this will no t make a large difference in emission estimates b ecause most large emission sources predicted by population growth are sources of volatile organic compounds which this revision does no t address. G ains in emissions from natural gas use were offset by lower emissions from other fossil fuels . Table 7 compa res the NO X area sources emissions in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Pla n with emissio ns predicted by the MARAMA inventory to de termine within a reasonable amount what the exact effect on emissions will be d ue to this under

- prediction . The emissions are derived from a 2007 baseline emissions inventory that was grown to 2017 and linearly interpolated to determine 2009 emissions

. Emissions estimated based on updated assumptions by MARAMA indicate that area

so urce emissions of NO X in the Reading Ozone Mainten ance Area are approximately 76 tons per year more than what was included in the Maintenance Plan. Given that these NO X - producing area sources are mostly fuel combustion sources, the increase in area source NO X emissions would mostly occur outside of the ozone season during colder temperatures. Increased NO X emissions for area sources as a result of updated growth estimates would be minimal. A fter adjusting annual emissions to obtain summer weekday emissio ns, increased emissions in 2009

were less than 0.1 tons of NO X per summer week day more than what was given in the Berks Ozone Maintenance Plan which would be more than offset by emission reductions from other
sectors in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan, for instance, point sources

.
T able 6 : Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Reading Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to

Projected Growth in the Reading Area Maintenance Plan (2002

- 2009)
Surrogate Indicator for Growth Actual Use 2002 Actual Use

2009 Actual

G rowth 2002

- 2009 Maintenance

Plan Growth (2002

- 2009)
Population 380,629 407,125 1.0696 1.0381

Total Employees 145,505 144,462 0.9928 1.0645
Total Coal Consumption ( short tons ) 274,048 178,741 0.652 2 1.0481

Total Natural Gas Consumption (million cubic ft. ) 15,972 17,094 1.070 2

---

Natural Gas Boilers

--- --- --- 1.0105

Natural Gas, Residential

--- --- --- 1.0841

Distillate Oil Consumption (barrels) 1,738,815 1,703,461 0.979 7 1.073114

Table 7 : NO X Affected Are a Source Emission Categories in the Readi ng Ozone

Maintenance Areas for C alendar Y ear 2009

Source Classification Code Source Classification Description 2009 Projected Emissions 2009 NO X

Emissions in the Maintenance Plan

2102001000 Total: All Boiler Types, Anthracite Coal,

Industrial, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 536.869 238.816

2102004000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Industrial /Distillate

Oil /Total: Boilers and IC Eng ine 39.636 0.000

2102005000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Industrial /Residual

Oil /Total: All Boiler Types 55.836 0.000

2102006000 Stat ionary Fuel Comb /Industrial /Natural

Gas /Total: Boilers and IC Engine 0.000 0.000

2102007000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Industria l /Lique fied

Petroleum Gas /Total: All Boile rs 29.948 0.000

2102011000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Industrial /Kerosene

/Total: All Bo iler Types 0.628 0.000

2103001000 Total: All Boiler Types, Anthracite Coal,

Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 69.185 129.404

2103004000 Total: Boilers and IC Engines, Distillate

Oil, Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source F uel Combustion 44.435 85.210

2103005000 Total: All Boiler Types, Residual Oil,

Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 5.778 11.215

2103006000 Total: Boilers and IC Engines, Natural Gas,

Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source
Fue l Combustion 103.115 137.54815

Source Classification Code Source Classification Description 2009 Projected Emissions 2009 NO X

Emissions in the Maintenance Plan

2103007000 T otal: All Combustor Types, Lique fied

Petroleum Gas (LPG), Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 3.643 0.253

2103011000 Total: All Combustor Types, Kerosene,

Commercial/Institutional, Stationa ry Source Fuel Combustion 4.913 6.076

2104001000 Total: All Combustor Types, Anthracite

Coal, Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 2.203 19.907

2104004000 Total: All Combustor Types, Distillate Oil,

Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustio n 324.421 389.084

2104006000 Total: All Combustor Types, Natural Gas,

Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 223.435 226.049

2104007000 T otal: All Combustor Types, Lique fied

Petroleum Gas (LPG), Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 50.3 98 37.041

2104011000 Total: All Heater Types, Kerosene,

Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 18.033 65.687

2601010000 Total, Industrial, On

- site Incineration,

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery --- 40.090

2601020000 Total, Commercial/Inst itutional, On

- site

Incineration, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery --- 40.633

2610000100 Yard Waste

- Leaf Species Unspecified, All

--- 3.47316

Source Classification Code Source Classification Description 2009 Projected Emissions 2009 NO X

Emissions in the Maintenance Plan
Categories, Open Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery

2610000400 Yard Waste

- Brush Species Un specified,

All Categories, Open Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery --- 2.770

2610000500 Land Clearing Debris (use 28

- 10

- 005

- 000

for Loggin, All Categories, Open Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery 79.669 101.918

2610010000 Tota l, Industrial, Open Burning, Waste

Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery --- 3.715

2610020000 Total, Commercial/Institutional, Open

Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery --- 5.857

2610030000 Household Waste (use 26

- 10

- 000

- xxx for

Yard Wastes, Resi dential, Open Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery --- 28.787

2810001000 Total, Forest Wildfires, Other Combustion,

Miscellaneous Area Sources --- 0.251

2810015000 Total, Prescribed Burning for Forest

Management, Other Combustion, Miscellaneo us Area Sources --- 0.483

2810030000 Total, Structure Fires, Other Combustion,

Miscellaneous Area Sources --- 0.575

Total 2009 Annual Areas Source NOx Emissions 1592.145 15 86

. 511

Total 2009 Summer Week Day Area Source NOx Emissions 2.305 2.23917



### Area Source Category 2018 Emissions

The Reading O zone M aintenance P lan estimate d area source sector growth using a baseline inventory from 2002 and growing emissions to the maintenance years of 2009 and 2018

, based on the growth of socioeconomic activity

. 7 Da ta used to revise grow th estimates was obtained from the same MARAMA inventory effort described in the point source section above. The effort used a baseline inventory of 2007 8 and maintenance year inventories of 2017 and 2020

. 9 Just as in the point sour ce emissions, t hese inventory years made a direct comparison of emissions and growth rates difficult because the MARAMA baseline years and projected inventory years were too dissimilar from what was included in the Reading O zone M aintenance P lan

. Therefor e, the emissions growth predicted to occur from 2009 to 2018 was determined through linear interpolation by using emission estimates for 2007 and 2020 from the new MARAM A inventory . P rojected growth between 2009 and 2018 in the Reading O zone M aintenance P lan was estimated using the 2009 and 2018 emission estimates. In Table 8

, the revised growth projections are given.
The growth rate predicted in the maintenance plan from 2009 to 2018 is derived by the following formula:

Growth Factor (2009

- 2018) = ( ( G rowth Factor (2002

- 2018) – Growth Factor (2002

- 2009) )

÷ Growth Factor (2002

- 2009) ) + 1

A line ar interpolation between the 2007 MARAMA baseline emissions and the 2020 MARAMA projected emissions was used to calculate emissions for the years 2009 and 2018. From these interpolated emissions (see equations 1 and 2 below) , the projected growth bet ween 2009 and 2018 was calculated (see equation 3 below). Fossil fuel combustion surrogates in Table 8 represent most emissions of NO X . The surrogates for growth shown in Table 8 are used to predict revised growth for a large majority of emissions from area source categories in the Reading O zone M aintenance P lan revision

. (1) 2009 Emissions = 2007 Emissions

- ( 2020 Emissions

– 2007 Emission s ) * ((2009

– 2007) ÷ (2020

- 2007))

(2) 2 018 Emissions = 2007 Emissions

- (2020 Emissions

– 2007 Emissions) * ((2018

– 2007) ÷ (2020

- 2007))

7 State Implementation Plan Revision: Maintenance Plan and Base Year Inventory Lancaster Eight

- Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area, September 2006, Appendix B

- 1, Area Source Methodology, p.2.

8 Mid

- Atlantic Reg ional Air Management Association, Technical Support Document for the Development of the 2007 Emissions Inventories for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast/Mid

- Atlantic Region Version 3.3, January 23, 2012

9 Mid

- Atlantic Regional Air Management A ssociation, Technical Support Document for t he Development of the 2017/2020 Emissions Inventories for Regional Air Quality Modeling in the Northeast/Mid

- Atlantic Region Version 3.3, January 23, 201218

(3) Emissions Growth (2009

- 2018) = ((2018 Emission

– 2009 Emissions) ÷ 2009 Emissio ns) + 1

Table 8 shows that, for the most part, growth in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan is comparable to newer assumptions developed by the MARAMA inventory effort. It deserves mentioning that the two sets of employee growth that are compared in Table 8 were estimated using two different methods. It is safe to assume that, due to the severe economic downturn experienced from 2007 to 2009, employee growth does not approach what was predicted in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan. Emissions of NO X from area sources are dominated by fossil fuel combustion. Table 8 shows that the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan under

- predicted indicators for growth from 2009 to 2018 for population, commercial anthracite coal use, distillate oil, and commercial natura l gas use. It is difficult to discern from comparing growth factors in the Maintenance Plan to updated growth estimates whether emission s were under

- predicted

. Table 9 compares estimated NO X emissions in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan with emissions predicted by the updated MARAMA inventory. The 2009 and 2018 NO X emission from th e MARAMA inventory we re line arly interpolated between a 2007 baseline inventory and

a n estimated 2020 inventory. Table 9 shows that the Reading Ozone Maintenance Plan NO X
em issions are slightly larger than the newer MARAMA inventory by about 7 5 tons per year. Therefore, updated area source NO X emissions are higher than what is inventoried in the Reading Ozone Maintenance Pl an for 2018

.
Table 8 : Revised Socioeconomic Data for the Reading Ozone Maintenance Area Relative to the Projected Growth in the Reading Area Maintenance Plan (2009

- 2018)

Indicator for Growth Revised Growth i n MAR AMA Inventory (2009

- 2018) Maintenance Plan Growth (2009

- 2018)
Populati on 1.0851 1.0472

E mployees 0.9998 * 1.0779

Anthracite Coal, Industrial 0.9136 0.9 983

Anthracite Coal, Commercial 1.0230 0.9865
All Combuster Ty pes, Distillate Oil , Residential 0.8226 0.9598

Boilers and Internal Combustion Engines, Natural Gas, Commerc ial 1.0687 1.0521

Combuster Types, Natural Gas, Residential 1.0188 1.0181

*The MARAMA inventory estimated growth in employment based on statewide N orth A merican I ndustry C lassification S ystem codes. NAICS codes proved too cumbersome to establish employm ent growth on the county19

level . Employment growth in Table 8 was derived from U.S Census Bureau industrial emp loyment data and was not developed by MARAMA

. Table 9 : Affected NO X Are a Source Emission Categories in the Reading Ozone

Maintenance Areas for C a lendar Y ear 2018

Source Classification Code Source Classification Description 2018 Projected Emissions 2018 NO X

Emissions in the Maintenance Plan

2102001000 Total: All Boiler Types, Anthracite

Coal, Industrial, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 490.489 23 8.402

2102004000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Industrial

/Distillate Oil /Total: Boilers and IC Eng ines 37.372 0.000

2102005000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Industrial

/Residual Oil /Total: All Boiler Types 39.392 0.000

2102006000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Industrial

/Na tural Gas /Total: Boilers and IC Engine 0.000 0.000

2102007000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Industrial

/Liquefied Petroleum Gas /Total: All Boilers 28.045 0.000

2102011000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Industrial

/Kerosene /Total: All Boiler Types 0.592 0.000

21030010 00 Total: All Boiler Types, Anthracite

Coal, Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 70.774 127.655

2103004000 Total: Boilers and IC Engines, Distillate

Oil, Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 36.232 89.222

21 03005000 Total: All Boiler Types, Residual Oil,

Commercial/Institutional, Stationary 6.119 11.55320

Source Classification Code Source Classification Description 2018 Projected Emissions 2018 NO X

Emissions in the Maintenance Plan

Source Fuel Combustion

2103006000 Total: Boilers and IC Engines, Natural

Gas, Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 110.202 144.709

21 03007000 T otal: All Combustor Types, Lique fied

Petroleum Gas (LPG), Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 3.646 0.258

2103011000 Total: All Combustor Types, Kerosene,

Commercial/Institutional, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 6.268 5.980

2104001000 Total: All Combustor Types, Anthracite

Coal, Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 1.600 18.291

2104004000 Total: All Combustor Types, Distillate

Oil, Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 266.855 373.431

2104006000 To tal: All Combustor Types, Natural

Gas, Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 227.640 230.129

2104007000 Total: All Combustor Types, Liquefied

Petroleum Gas (LPG), Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 39.784 44.211

2104008001 Fireplaces : General, Wood, Residential,

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion ---- 1.970

2104008002 Fireplaces: Insert; non

- EPA certified,

Wood, Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion ---- 4.90221

Source Classification Code Source Classification Description 2018 Projected Emissions 2018 NO X

Emissions in the Maintenance Plan

2104008004 Fireplaces: Insert; EPA certified;

catalytic, Wood, Re sidential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion ---- 0.088

2104008010 Woodstoves: General, Wood,

Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion ---- 3.505

2104008030 Catalytic Woodstoves: General, Wood,

Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion ---- 0. 063

2104008100 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Wood /Fireplace: general 11.295

----

2104008210 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Wood /Woodstove: fireplace inserts;

non

6.813

----

2104008220 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Wood /Woodstove: firep lace inserts;
EPA 1.697

----

2104008230 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Wood /Woodstove: fireplace inserts;
EPA 0.621

----

2104008310 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Wood /Wo odstove: freestanding, non

EPA 19.634

----

2104008320 Stationary Fuel Co mb /Residential

/Wood /Woodstove: freestanding, EPA certified 4.889

----

2104008330 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Wood /Woodstove: freestanding, EPA 1.791

----22

Source Classification Code Source Classification Description 2018 Projected Emissions 2018 NO X

Emissions in the Maintenance Plan

certified

2104008400 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Wood /Wo odstove: pellet

- fired, ge neral 11.863

----

2104008510 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Wood /Furnac e: Indoor, cordwood

fired 1.473

----

2104008610 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Wood /Hydronic heater: outdoor 3.324

----

2104009000 Stationary Fuel Comb /Residential

/Firel og /Total: All Combustor Types 4.720

----

2104011000 Total: All Heater Types, Kerosene,

Residential, Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 17.880 69.041

2601010000 Total, Industrial, On

- site Incineration,

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery ---- 43.212

2601020000 Total, Commercial/Institutional, On

- site

Incineration, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery ---- 43.797

2610000100 Yard Waste

- Leaf Species Unspecified,

All Categories, Open Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery ---- 3.637

26100 00400 Yard Waste

- Brush Species

Unspecified, All Categories, Open Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery ---- 2.900

2610000500 Land Clearing Debris (use 28

- 10

- 005

-

000 for Loggin g , All Categories, Open 79.669 106.72423

Source Classification Code Source Classification Description 2018 Projected Emissions 2018 NO X

Emissions in the Maintenance Plan
Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Rec overy

2610010000 Total, Industrial, Open Burning, Waste

Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery ---- 4.004

2610020000 Total, Commercial/Institutional, Open

Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery ---- 6.313

2610030000 Household Waste ( use 26

- 10

- 000

- xxx

for Yard Wastes, Residential, Open Burning, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery ---- 30.145

2680001000 All Processes, 100% Bio

- solids (e.g.,

sewage sludge, manure, mixtu re , Composting, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery ---- 0.0 00

2680002000 All Processes, Mixed Waste (e.g., a

50:50 mixture of bio

- solids an, Composting, Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery ---- 0.000

2810001000 Total, Forest Wildfires, Other

Combustion, Miscellaneous Area Sources ---- 0.251

2810015000 Total , Prescribed Burning for Forest

Management, Other Combustion, Miscellaneous Area Sources ---- 0.483

2810030000 Total, Structure Fires, Other

Combustion, Miscellaneous Area Sources ---- 0.60224

Source Classification Code Source Classification Description 2018 Projected Emissions 2018 NO X

Emissions in the Maintenance Plan

Total Annual Area Source NOx Emissions 1530.679 1605.476

Tot al 2018 Summer Week Day Area Source NOx Emissions 2.106 2.313



## Nonroad Source Category Emissions
Emissions from the nonroad category are produced by many different types of vehicles and equipment. The EPA’s NONROAD m odel estimates emissions for over 200 types of equipment, engines and vehicles. Nonroad engines and vehicles can be used for such applications as construction, lawn and garden care, farming, and commercial and industrial applications. In addition, emissions from three types of activities inc luding aircraft, locomotives, and commercial marine vessels are not estimated in the NONROAD m odel but are still included in the nonroad category

. T he aircraft, rail, and commercial marine emiss i ons are estimated outside of the NONROAD m odel

. In the appr oved Reading O zone M aintenance P lan

, the NONROAD2005 model was used to estimate nonroad emissions . The model w ent through one major revision since it was used for the maintenance plan . NONRAOD2008a is the latest version of this model. This new version o f the model incorporated two reduction strategies that affect engines and vehicles in the nonroad sector:

 Diesel recreational marine standards in the 2008 final rule on locomotive and marine engines (73 FR 25098); and

 The October 2008 small spark ignition and spark ignition and recreational marine rule (73 FR 59034).

For the Reading O zone M aintenance P lan , the Department modified files in the NONROAD

m odel

, when state specific data was available for emission categories such a s residential lawn and
gar den.

Emissions from nonroad sources have decreased since the submittal of the Reading O zone M aintena nce P lan

, as a result of the a dditional controls mentioned and other tier level controls that have been phased in with fleet turnover since 2004 . The fleet turnover that occurs as older, more polluting nonroad equipment and vehicles are replaced by newer equipment and vehicles that meet more stringent emission standards has continued to lower emissions in the nonroad sector since the late 1990s and will cont inue to do so for the next 10 years. Emission reduction s occurred across all segments of the nonroad category

, including construction equipment, farming equipment, locomotives, and l awn and garden equipment. Modeling runs were not completed for25

the nonro ad emission source categories. The D epartment will treat nonroad emissions in the Reading A rea as non

- changing from their 2004 levels for the purpose of this SIP revision

, even though full scale modeling runs using the NONROAD2008a would show nonroad emis s ions in a decline

.



## Highway Source Category Emission s Highway emissions were estimated by Michael Baker, Jr., Inc.

, who is a consultant to the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. The methodology for estimating e missions of highway vehicles is gre atly different than what was used in the Reading Ozone M aintenance P lan because an entirely new highway emissions model i s being used. Highway emissions are being estimated using the MOVES m odel instead of the Mobi le6 m odel. With this change, a new set o f inputs was used in the MOVES m odel . The method for forecasting traffic growth and vehicle miles travelled remains the same as that used in the Reading O zone M aintenance P lan. Both the revised maintenance plan and the original maintenance plan used the Statistical Evaluation of Projected Traffic Growth . A revised Appendix C, M aintenance Plan Update for the Reading ( Berks County) Eight

- Hour Ozone Maintenance Area: Motor Vehicle Emission Budget Revisions Using MOVES2010a

, is attached

. Also attached, plea se find Appendix C

- 1, Mobile Source Highway Emissions Inventory

– An Explanation of Methodology

.
The MOVES m odel estimates that highway vehicle emissions incr ease greatly for NO X for the 2009 and 2018 attainment years when compared to the highway vehicle e mission estimates included in the Reading O zone M aintenance P lan for those same years . (See Table 10 ). MOVES also increases the emission estimates of the 2004 attainment year. Since the emissions increase in both the attainment and maintenance years, MO VES modeled emissions , like Mobile modeled emissions, of highway vehicles still show a large decrease in emission s between 2004 and 2009 and between 2004 and 2018.

Table 10 : Revised Motor Vehicle Emissions Using MOVES2010a (tons/summer day)

Pollutant Origi nal MOBILE6.2 Emissions Revised MOVES2010a Emissions

2004 2009 2018 2004 2009 2018 NO X 29.8 20.7 8.4 34.4 27 .0 12.9 VOC 17.0 12.1 6.5 N/A N/A N/A