Aggregated Perspectives on Treasury Auction Sizes, October 2021

MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD MEAN STD

Coupons

44.7 4.2 41.2 4.5 48.5 5.2 43.8 4.4 39.6 4.3 48.3 5.3 43.8 4.5 39.1 4.2 49.0 5.7

42.8 4.0 39.2 4.3 46.7 5.1 42.0 4.4 37.8 4.3 46.5 5.4 41.6 4.3 36.8 4.0 46.8 5.6

45.9 4.3 42.1 4.5 49.5 5.1 44.9 4.4 40.4 4.5 49.1 5.3 44.5 4.3 39.4 4.1 49.3 5.4

41.0 6.8 37.0 7.0 45.7 7.8 39.7 6.7 35.2 6.9 44.9 8.0 39.6 6.8 34.6 6.8 45.5 8.3

34.0 1.6 31.4 1.8 37.0 1.9 33.3 1.8 30.0 2.2 36.9 2.2 33.4 1.8 29.6 2.2 37.2 2.2

31.0 1.6 28.4 1.8 34.0 1.8 30.4 1.9 27.2 2.3 33.9 2.2 30.4 1.8 26.7 2.2 34.2 2.3

18.6 1.8 16.0 2.1 21.6 2.1 18.3 1.9 15.4 2.1 21.4 2.1 18.4 1.8 15.3 2.2 21.7 2.3

15.6 1.8 13.0 2.1 18.5 2.1 15.3 1.9 12.5 2.1 18.5 2.3 15.4 1.8 12.4 2.2 18.7 2.3

21.6 1.3 19.2 1.3 24.2 1.3 21.1 1.9 18.4 1.9 24.0 1.6 21.3 1.8 18.1 2.1 24.4 1.9

18.8 1.1 16.3 1.2 21.3 1.1 18.3 1.7 15.5 1.8 21.1 1.4 18.4 1.8 15.2 2.1 21.4 1.8

TIPS

19.3 0.8 18.5 0.7 20.4 1.2 19.5 1.4 18.2 1.0 20.8 1.7 19.7 1.5 18.2 1.0 21.3 2.3

17.3 0.8 16.5 0.7 18.4 1.3 17.5 1.4 16.2 1.0 18.9 1.7 17.7 1.5 16.2 1.0 18.9 1.9

16.4 0.8 15.7 0.8 17.6 1.4 16.4 1.0 15.5 1.1 17.9 1.7 16.7 1.3 15.4 1.1 18.2 2.0

14.4 0.8 13.7 0.8 15.6 1.4 14.4 1.0 13.5 1.1 15.9 1.7 14.7 1.3 13.4 1.1 16.2 2.0

9.3 0.5 8.7 0.5 10.2 0.9 9.3 0.7 8.5 0.7 10.4 1.1 9.5 0.9 8.5 0.6 10.8 1.5

8.3 0.5 7.7 0.6 9.2 0.9 8.3 0.7 7.4 0.7 9.4 1.1 8.5 0.9 7.4 0.7 9.7 1.5

FRNs

23.3 2.3 21.1 2.7 25.5 2.1 23.0 2.0 19.9 2.5 25.8 2.1 22.9 2.0 19.5 2.7 26.0 2.4

21.3 2.3 19.2 2.6 23.6 2.1 21.0 2.0 18.0 2.4 23.8 2.1 21.0 1.9 17.7 2.6 24.0 2.4

Bills

47.4 9.6 33.9 9.7 59.8 11.8 48.6 9.5 34.8 10.8 61.6 12.2 50.9 10.6 36.6 11.7 64.0 13.2

40.8 6.1 30.5 5.0 51.8 9.2 41.5 7.0 31.4 6.8 53.2 11.5 43.6 8.7 33.2 8.5 55.1 12.2

54.9 3.3 46.3 5.1 60.2 3.2 55.1 4.2 46.7 6.4 61.2 3.9 56.4 5.7 47.9 7.1 62.8 5.6

50.7 4.2 43.0 4.8 55.8 4.4 51.0 4.7 43.9 6.5 56.8 5.1 52.3 5.9 45.1 6.8 58.0 6.2

34.5 1.4 31.4 2.2 37.3 3.0 34.8 1.6 31.1 2.9 37.5 3.0 35.9 3.1 31.9 3.7 39.0 4.3

1-mo bill

2-mo bill

3-mo bill

6-mo bill

1-year bill

2-year FRN (reop)

20-year (new)

20-year (reop)

30-year (new)

30-year (reop)

5-year TIPS (new)

5-year TIPS (reop)

10-year TIPS (new)

10-year TIPS (reop)

30-year TIPS (new)

30-year TIPS (reop)

2-year FRN

10-year (reop)

Range that would not surprise you

Low High Low High Low High

2-year

3-year

5-year

7-year

10-year (new)

The Treasury Department’s Office of Debt Management (ODM) would like your perspectives on Treasury auction sizes. This information would be used to help test ODM’s debt-issuance modeling assumptions, and does not reflect 

potential policy decisions. We appreciate your participation in a similar survey conducted in April 2021, and the aggregate response can be found online at

https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding/quarterly-refunding-archives/primary-dealer-auction-size-survey

Given your expectations for the borrowing needs over the next three fiscal years (as presented in question 1), Treasury would like your expectations for:

1. Auction sizes ($bln) in all tenors by the end of FY22, FY23, and FY24, and 

2. Auction size ranges ($bln) that would not surprise you across all tenors by the end of FY22, FY23, and FY24.

The Treasury Department’s ODM surveyed all 24 primary dealers on their firms’ perspectives on Treasury auction sizes. The results presented below are “trimmed mean” and “trimmed standard deviation”. That is, the high and low 

values of all 24 responses for any maturity tranche are deleted before computing the average and standard deviation.

Tenor

Size Expectations 

for FY22 Year-End

Range that would not surprise you Size Expectations 

for FY23 Year-End

Range that would not surprise you Size Expectations 

for FY24 Year-End