WRAP Regional Modeling Center - Simulation Specifications

Scenario Name: 2002 Plan Version C Simulation

RMC Code: “Plan02c”

Date Specifications Prepared: 6/19/2006, Last revised 10/31/2008.

Time Window for Modeling/Analysis: emissions modeling start date, targ eted tech memo publication date, start simulation on June 16, complete results analysis by June 30, 2006.

Description: 2002 Annual 36-km CMAQ air quality model si mulation using typical 2002 emissions. Simulation Plan02c was developed solely to correct errors in the Plan02b WRAP fire chemical speciation and temporal variation for some fire categories.

Purpose/Objective: The Plan02c case was developed for comparis on to the Base 2018 version B simulation to evaluate regional haze air quality for typical 2002 conditions. Plan02c provides the 20 02 baseline air quality and visibility conditions in the West ern Class I Areas for evaluation uniform rate of progress and glide slope calculations.

Expected Analysis Methods: Specific analysis methods will generally be determined based on the nature of the simulation and the stated purpose and objectives. These typically involve a number of standard postprocessing products used to elucidate relevant modeli ng results and analyses a nd aid in summarizing and interpreting the simulation results. For the present simulation these would include:

• Standard displays of spatial distribution of concentr ations of relevant polluta nts (Sulfate, Nitrate, PM, OC, EC, etc..) for various temporal periods (daily, monthly, seas onal and annual totals)

• Spatial difference plots of model pred ictions between plan02c and plan02b.

• Daily average model extractions for entire year. Extractions will focus on IMPROVE sites in WRAP region, and will be used for future year visibility projections.

Input Data:

Emissions

The Plan02c emissions data were identical to the Plan 2002 versi on B (Plan02b) emissions, except for correction to the fire emissions. The Plan02b emissions and the earlier ve rsion A emissions are described in pages 8-13 of the RMC 2006 annual report available at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports /final/2006/WRAP-RMC_2006_report_FINAL.pdf

The emissions data summary and QA products for Plan02c can be found at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/qa_plan02c36.shtml2 The following emissions for the Plan02c case were from previous model simulations:

• From Base02a

o BEIS3 biogenic emissions (includes soil NO)

o Windblown fugitive PM dust emissions – all components from WRAP WB Dust model

o WRAP NH 3 from WRAP NH 3 model

o CENRAP and MWRPO NH 3
o Gulf of Mexico offshore point

o CENRAP, VISTAS, MANE-VU, MWRO on-road mobile

o Ontario, Canada point fires

o CENRAP and VISTAS point fires

o CENRAP area fires

o Mexico road dust

• From Base02b

o Stationary area

o Fugitive dust

o Road dust

o Gulf of Mexico offshore area

• From Plan02a

o WRAP oil & gas

o Non-road mobile

o WRAP on-road mobile

o Mexico and Canada on-road mobile

o Eastern Pacific comme rcial shipping lanes

o WRAP baseline wildfires

o WRAP baseline wild land fire use

• From Plan02b:

o Stationary point

The following emission updates we re included in simulation Plan02c:

• Point Fires

o WRAP: corrected PM 2.5 speciation profile for non-fede ral rangeland and natural fires

• Documentation on input data, mode l settings, and modeling/QA pro cedures provided through standard reporting products: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/ aqm/308/emissions.shtml :

o Simulation specification sheet

o Summary of inventory inputs to the simulation with descriptions of the changes to each input

o Graphical QA summaries: http://pah. cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/qa_plan02c36.shtml

Other Inputs and Model Settings

• Initial and Boundary Conditions based on GEOS-CHEM simulation

• Model version, settings and configurati on same as for 2002 Base B (“base02b”)

• Time period simulated – annual, typical year, meteorology for 2002 used

Results

Summary tables and maps3 Table 1. Plan02c annual emissions summary by regions Region CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2

_ 5 PMC
US 120434067 22967136 68885722 5402204 14592973 16017851 5078884 10972137 Total WRAP 29865323 5435028 22291444 955127 1600638 4863030 1746477 3147739 CENRAP 25180035 5744502 15539755 2686248 2697271 7253137 1740629 3665466 VISTAS 30660217 5505986 19954197 666759 4668107 2124688 895975 1162248 MWRPO 16126261 3249972 5323150 115554 3258891 889922 289142 483281 MANE-VU 18465067 2712780 5682955 484312 2324216 882683 402358 462041 Canada 13979028 3039078 21070860 286985 2591763 2805233 755115 2050162 Mexico 2854296 531733 12139368 208283 801693 521433 143906 377562 Pacific Shipping 81731 1049526 37173 293 561084 70436 70436 0
Total **257646024 50235740 170924624 10805765 33096636 35428412 11122922 22320638**

Table 2. Plan02c WRAP total annual emissions by sector
Sector CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2

_ 5 PMC
Fires 9233544 212729 458075 49153 55777 757160 655295 122595 Area 1316293 263838 1418657 24562 94282 559854 229925 329964 Point 568813 927448 271873 11497 785552 158547 45865 123098 Non Road 3957511 970486 526393 972 70152 76003 70815 5188 Onroad 12070133 1591639 1000548 51395 30029 72829 62207 10622 Biogenic 2624814 286996 18197340 0 0 0 0 0 WOG 12485 132365 381385 0 3763 0 0 0 Road Dust 0 0 0 0 0 581980 63358 518630 Fugitive Dust 0 0 0 0 0 624057 116901 507152 Wind-Blown Dust 0 0 0 0 0 1962165 431676 1530489 Offshore Platforms 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Offshore Shipping 81731 1049526 37173 293 561084 70436 70436 0 Ag Ammonia 0 0 0 817256 0 0 0 0
Total **29865323 5435028 22291444 955127 1600638 4863030 1746477 3147739**

Emissions Summary

Simulation Plan02c was created to correct errors in the chemical speciation and temp oral variation of natural and non-federal rangeland fires in the WRAP region. The corrections to thes e two emissions categories are the only differences between simulations Plan02c and its pr edecessor, simulation Plan02b. An incorrect application of the default VOC and PM 2.5 chemical speciation profiles for these two fire categories resu lted in VOC being split to all eight CB-IV species and PM 2.5 converted to only PMFINE. Applyi ng the correct profiles to these emissions resulted in the VOC being c onverted to four CB-IV species and PM 2.5 to all five PM species.

Corrections to the temporal profiles fo r these same fire sources resulted in changing from the default flat diurnal profile to a profile that emits onl y between 0800 and 2000 local time with the emissions peaking at 1600-1700.

Analysis of the emissions modeling results illustrates th at the changes in simulation Plan02c relative to Plan02b do only occur in the WRAP states and in disperse grid cell s, a spatial pattern that is indicative of fire emissions. There are slight changes in all polluta nts on an annual basis due to the update s to the diurnal temporal profiles, an artifact of converting from local time to GMT. The larger changes in the VOC a nd PM emissions are due to the shift in speciation from the default spec iation profiles to source -specific profiles.4 Visibility Modeling Results

The Plan02c case was the third iterati on in the 2002 Planning Case typical- year emissions scenario and are r described on pages 14-16 of the RMC 2006 Final Report. The RMC created case Plan02c to correct one error that we discovered in the Plan02b emissions. To crea te case Plan02c from Pla n02b, we updated the WRAP nonFederal rangeland prescribed fire emissions. When we added this inventory to the WRAP modeling, we did not update the speciation and temporal cross- reference file to reflect the additi on. The result was that we incorrectly applied the default diurnal te mporal profile and VOC and PM 2.5 speciation profiles to these emissions. In case Plan02c we applied the correct temporal and speciation profiles to these sources. A lthough these fires account for only 0.5% of the total annual WRAP PM 2.5 emissions, we made this cha nge because their episodic and localized nature concentrate the emissions in a few grid cells in short time periods, le ading to a magnification of the impacts from these sources.

Relevant Output Products

Spatial plots of the CMAQ visibil ity modeling results can be found at: www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#plan02c_vs_plan02b

• Model output products include daily, monthly and annual average spatial distributions of Regional Haze contributing pollutants.

• Daily average concentrations for key aerosol sp ecies, including SO4, NO3, OC, EC, SOIL, and CM, along with gaseous species NO2, are extracted fo r IMPROVE sites located in WRAP region. The extraction contains annual data and w ill be used for visibility projections.

Figures 1 through 4 show annual average plots of PM speci es for the Plan02c simulation. The results are almost identical to the Plan02b results for the annual average. However, there are di fferences in the daily averages for the Plan02c and Plan02b, and thos e results are available at the RMC webpage at the above link.

Additional results are available at the TSS webpage: http://vista.cira.colostate .edu/TSS/Results/Modeling.aspx

Summary of Key Findings

The Plan02c case is discussed in detail in the RMC final report which is avai lable at the RMC webpage: www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/docs.shtml

The Plan02c case was used with the Base18b case for initial evaluation of the Uniform Rate of Progress (URP) at Class I areas in the WRAP region. Af ter completing this initial analysis, several updates to the 2002 Planning case emissions became available, and some errors in the original emissions were corrected to create the Plan02d case. All future analysis will use the Plan02d cases instead of Plan02c.

The Plan02c should not be compared to 2018 Preliminar y Reasonable Progress (PRP18) simulation because the emissions inventories are not consistent. Significant em issions updates were made to the Plan 2002 version D (Plan02d) emissions and that simulation should be used for comparison to the PRP18 simulation.5 Figure 1. Left panel shows annual average sulfate (top) and nitrate (bottom) CMAQ simulated concentrations for Plan02c.6 Figure 2. Left panel shows annual average amm onium (top) and ozone (bottom) CMAQ simulated concentrations for Plan02c.7 Figure 3. Left panel shows annual average elementa l carbon (top) and organic carbon (bottom) CMAQ simulated concentrations for Plan02c.8 Figure 4. Annual average coarse matter (top) and tota l PM2.5 (bottom) CMAQ simulated concentrations for Plan02c.