REPORT TO THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY 

FROM THE 

TREASURY BORROWING ADVISORY COMMITTEE 

OF THE 

PUBLIC SECURITIES ASSOCIATION 

AUGUST 2, 1995 

Dear Mr. Secretary: 

Since the Committee's last meeting with the Treasury in May 1995, the pace of 

economic activity has continued to moderate although recently consumer demand 

appears to have reaccelerated. Inflationary pressures, while not absent, appeared to 

remain modest. The Federal Resenre, nearly 18 months since it begin tightening 

monetary policy, lowered the Federal funds rate from 6% to 5 314% in July. 

During the three month interval, yields on Treasury securities declined by 30 to 70 

basis points. The drop was greatest for maturities from one to ten years; yields on bills 

and on 30-year bonds fell less. The present shape of the yield curve and forward prices 

for various fixed-income instruments indicate market participants expect only modest 

increases in interest rates in the coming months. 

Within this context, to refund the $30.0 billion of notes maturing on August 15, 

1995 that are privately held and to raise additional cash of $12.5 billion, the Committee 

recommends that the Treasury auction $42.5 billion of the following securities: 

$1 8.0 billion 3-year notes due August 1'5, 1 998; 

$1 3.0 billion 1 0-year notes due August 15,2005; and, 

$1 1.5 Win -year bonds due August 15,2025. 

Of the 14 Committee members present for the meeting, 1 1 voted in favor of this 

recommendation. The other three members favored the issuance of $41.0 billion of 

securities comprising $17.5 billion 3-year notes, $12.5 billion 10-year notes, and $1 1.0 

billion 30-year bonds; this alternative would raise $10.5 billion of additional cash. The 

majority focused on the desire to continue the gradual increases in the sizes of coupon 

offerings in view of the need tor larger issue sizes in 1996 and beyond as the 5-year note 

cycle reaches completion. 
In considering whether to recommend issuing a new 10-year note or reopening 

the 6 112% note due May 15, 2005, Committee members observed that though the 

outstanding issue was in short supply in the repurchase agreement market, there was no 

compelling evidence that the shortage was unusual or acute. In any event, the shortage 

should be alleviated once a new 10-year note is auctioned. On this basis, the Committee 

voted 8 to 6 in favor of a new issue. 

In considering the maturity of the long bond to be issued in the refunding, the 

Committee discussed the possibilities of a 29 3/4 year, a 30 year, and a 30 1/4 year 

(maturing, respectively, in May, August, and November 2025). There appear to be no 

shortages or market distortions associated with the components of stripped securities 

maturing in May or November. In the absence of convincing arguments for the 

alternatives, 12 members favored a 30 year maturity while two members favored a 30 1/4 

year maturity. 

With the aim of achieving a cash balance of $30 billion on September 30, the 

Committee unanimously recommends that for the remainder of the quarter the Treasury 

meet its borrowing requirement in the following manner: 

a One 5-year note totaling $1 1.5 billion, to raise $1 1.5 billion of new cash; 

8 One 2-year note totaling $17.75 billion, to raise $0.9 billion of new cash; 

a Two 1-year bills totaling $18.25 billion each, to raise $2.9 billion of new cash; 

8 Weekly issuance of 3- and 6-month bills through the remainder of the quarter, to 

reduce cash by $19.1 billion; and, 

8 Redemptm on August 15 of the bonds called earlier, to reduce cash -by $2.4 

billion. 

Including the $12.5 billion raised in the mid-quarter refunding as well as anticipated 

foreign add-ons of $2.2 billion, the proposed financing schedule will raise a total of $8.5 

billion. This amount, when added to the $17.5 billion already raised or announced to 

date in the quarter, wiH accomplish the total net borrowing requirement of $26.0 billion. In 

addition, intra-quartwcash management bills of approximately $25.0 billion maturing on 

September 21 will be needed to cover the cash low point in early September. 

For the October-December quarter, the Treasury estimates a net borrowing 

requirement in the range of $60 to $65 btllion with a cash balance of $20 billion at the 

end of December. To accomplish the anticipated net borrowing requirement, the 

Committee recommends the following provisional financing schedule: 
Size 

Auctions &billions) 

Refunding 3-year note 18.5 

10-year note 13.5 

Subtotal 32.0 

Other: 5-year notes 3 x 12.0 

2-year notes 3 x 18.25 

1-year bills 3 x 18.75 

3- and 6-month bills 

Cash management bill 

(January maturity) 

Estimated foreign add-ons 

Subtotal 

Less: Redemption of 7-year notes 

Total Net Market Borrowing 

The Committee also notes the likely need for the issuance of intra-quarter cash 

management bills to cover cash low points during the quarter. 

In formulating its recommendation for a financing strategy beginning in early 1996, 

the Committee began with the observation that the 5-year note cycle has been the 

Treasury's dominate source of new cash over the past five years. At the current size of 

$11.5 billion per month, the note contributes approximately $138 billion of new cash each 

year. Further, if the issue sizes of all coupon offerings were heid at their current levels 

through 1996, only $17 billion of new cash would be raised 

To meet the Treasury's borrowing needs, the Committee has consistently preferred 

first increasing the size of existing cycle offerings. This approach does not appear 

feasible, however, for meeting the net borrowing requirement faced in 1996 which likely 

will approach $190 biili. The size and pace of the increases in existing cycles that 

would be required bo raise this amount would almost certainly be disruptive to the market 

and hence cody Bo the Treasury. The Committee believes therefore that the point has 

been reached where the Treasury needs to develop a new major borrowing source. 

As its point of departure, the Committee returned to the two principles set forth in its 

report of February 1, 1995 that it believes should guide the Treasury's financing strategy 

beginning in January 1996. The first concerns the schedule of maturities and the second 

the average length of the debt. 

Wflh respect to the first concern, the schedule of maturities, the Committee stated 

in its February report that: 
For the past several years, the proportion of the debt maturing under two 

years, for example, has been reasonably stable at levels under 50 per cent. 

With thecurrent borrowing strategy, the proportion is destined to rise, as it has 

been recently. While ... the Committee knows of no convincing case that 

points to some ideal schedule of maturities, a rise in the proportion of debt 

maturing within one or two years, especially in conjunction with a steady 

decline in the average length of the debt, seems bound ultimately to raise 

concerns among investors. In the inevitable periods of stress in the financial 

markets, it is likely that a heavy concentration of maturities to be refinanced in 

the near-term could add materially to the Treasury's cost of borrowing. 

This concern led the Committee to the view that ... [one] objective of ... the 

Treasury's borrowing pattern beginning in January 1996 should be to ensure 

a more even spread in the schedule of maturities across the full maturity 

spectrum and a concomitant avoidance of undue reliance on short-term 

financing. 

Regarding the average length of the debt, the second concern cited by the 

Committee, the repoFt stated: 

Although the Committee is aware of no compelling study or argument that 

points to an optimal average length for the debt, the present pace of decline, if 

continued, will increase the Treasury's exposure to variations in the level of 

interest rates and could become a subject of worty to investors. From its 

recent peak of 6 years in June 1991, the average length of privately-held 

marketable debt has fallen to 5 ym, 6 months. If the present borrowing 

strategy is continued into 1996 and beyond, the pace of the decline would 

continue unabated. Though it cannot say when, the Committee does believe 

that at some stage the trend will attract the notice of investors in the US and 

abroad and begin to raise concerns. The consequences are unknown, but it 

seems highly likeiy there would be a negative effect on the Treasury's cost of 

borrowing over the longer-term. 

This concern led the Committee to the principle of having as one objective of 

its recommendations for adjustments to the Treasury's borrowing pattern 

beginning in January 1996 a slowing or an arresting of the pace of decline in 

the average length of the debt. 

Wm these objectives in mind, the Committee recommends, as a general outline, 

the following strategy for raising cash beginning in early 1996: 

1. Increase coupon issues sufficiently to ensure that the proportion of the total debt 

maturing within two years does not increase materially beyond the current level of 

approximately 50%. 

2. Increase the frequency of the issuance of 10-year notes from quarterly to either 

eight or twelve times per year. The 10-year note has become the world 
benchmark security and the primary hedging vehicle for dealers and Investors. 

Further, because 7-year notes are no longer offered, demand for the maturity has 

increased and liquidity is exceptionally high. To ensure individual issues remain 

liquid, each new offering should be at least $8 to 10 billion in size. 

As a complement or in addition, the frequency of the issuance 30-year bonds 

could be returned to four times per year. The current semi-annual frequency and 

reduced size has had a noticeable adverse impact on liquidity. In the view of 

some Committee members, the reduced liquidity has raised the yield at which 30- 

year bonds trade in the secondary market. Nevertheless, most believe that if the 

quarterG cycle were reinstated, with minimum issuance sizes of approximately $10 

billion, the previous level of liquidity could be restored reasonably quickly. 

3. Lastly, increase the offering amounts of 3-, 6-, and 12-month bills as necessary to 

make up the balance of the borrowing requirement. 

With respect to the non-conventional financing alternatives which have been 

discussed recently--specifically, variable rate notes and inflation-indexed securities--the 

Committee continues to believe that while they warrant consideration, it is unlikely that a 

sufficiently large market for these instruments could be developed rapidly enough on 

attractive terms to the Treasury to afford substantial new sources of cash in 1996. 

In response to the request for the Committee's views on possible market 

disruptions in Treasury borrowing if the statutory debt limit is not increased in a timely 

manner this fall, the statement of Richard M. Kelly, Vice Chairman of the Committee, 

delivered to the Senate Committee on Finance on July 28, 1995 is attached. 

Finally, the Committee notes that the next meeting of the Federal Open Market 

Committee occurs on Tuesday, August 22. The heightened m&et uncertainty that is 

typically associated with a possible announcement following these meetings of a change 

in monetary policy could adversely affect the Treasury's cost of borrowing in any auction 

held immediately ahead of such possible announcements. As a consequence, the 

Committee recommends that the Treasury schedule the August auctions of 2-year and 5-

year notes on Wednesday, August 23 and Thursday, August 24, respectively. 

Mr. Secretary,that concludes the Committee's report. We welcome any questions 

or comments. 

Respectfully submitted, 

Stephen C. Francis 

Chairman 

Attachment