OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – May 2023 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Meetings: April 27 – April 28, 2023

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, April 24, 2023 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1, 2

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

April-June2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

July-September 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2025 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

II. Economic Estimates 

Budget Deficit FY 2023 /

Budget Deficit FY 2024 /

Budget Deficit FY 2025 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2023 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2024 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / /

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve System does not redeem any maturing securities, this would increase the amount of cash 

raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.

2 See appendix for an example calculation of privately-held net marketable borrowing.
10-year note (May) /

10-year note reopening (Jun/Jul) / / - /

20-year bond (May) /

20-year bond reopening (Jun/Jul) / / - /

30-year bond (May) /

30-year bond reopening (Jun/Jul) / / - /

2-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / /

5-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / /

7-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / /

10-year TIPS reopening (May) /

5-year TIPS reopening (Jun) /

10-year TIPS (Jul) /

2-year FRN reopening (May/Jun) / / - /

2-year FRN (Jul) /

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates3

52-week bill size (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding May‘23 – Jul‘23 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding May‘23 – Jul‘23 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2023 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2023 /

CMB issuance May ‘23 – Jul‘23 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including changes in SOMA holdings), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2023 and FY2024.

2. Treasury continues to study a potential buyback program and has not made any decision on whether or how to 

implement a buyback program. 

At the February refunding, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) presented to Treasury possible 

use cases and considerations for designing a potential buyback program. Please discuss the size of buybacks 

Treasury could consider and how much flexibility on the size Treasury could have without being at odds with 

regular and predictable.

For a liquidity support buyback program, TBAC suggested Treasury could initially size buybacks around $5 to 

$10 billion per month for maturities > 1 year. Would this size meaningfully improve liquidity? If Treasury 

announced it would purchase up to a certain size per month or quarter for liquidity support, is there a minimum 

size that Treasury would need to buyback to ensure the goals of a liquidity support program would be met?

For a cash management buyback program, given the uncertainty about the size of fiscal flows, what is the 

maximum size Treasury could purchase per month or quarter in short term maturities that would not cause 

material price dislocations and would be beneficial for debt management? Would fluctuations in the size of 

potential cash management buybacks quarter-to-quarter cause any concerns?

3. As stated in the February refunding policy statement, until the debt limit is suspended or increased, debt limitrelated constraints will lead to greater-than-normal variability in benchmark Treasury bill issuance and significant 

usage of cash management bills. Once the debt limit is suspended or increased, please discuss the factors 

Treasury should consider when determining Treasury bill issuance in order to restore the cash balance to levels 

consistent with its cash balance policy.4 What do you anticipate being the market capacity for weekly and 

3 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).

4 Cash balance policy: “To help protect against a potential interruption in market access, Treasury will hold a level of cash generally 

sufficient to cover one week of outflows in the Treasury General Account, subject to a minimum balance of roughly $150 billion”
quarterly changes in Treasury bill issuance across tenors that would not cause significant price deviations in 

Treasury bills relative to fair value?
Part 2:

Given your expectations for borrowing needs over the next three fiscal years (as presented in question 1), Treasury would like 

your expectations for:

1. Auction sizes ($bn) in all tenors by the end of FY23, FY24, and FY25, and 

2. Auction size ranges ($bn) that would not surprise you across all tenors by the end of FY23, FY24, and FY25.

Auction size estimates should take into account the amount net of SOMA add-ons of Treasury securities.

Tenor

Size 

Expectation for 

FY23 

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for 

FY24 

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for 

FY25 

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Nominals

2-year / / /

3-year / / /

5-year / / /

7-year / / /

10-year (new) / / /

10-year (reop) / / /

20-year (new) / / /

20-year (reop) / / /

30-year (new) / / /

30-year (reop) / / /

TIPS

5-year TIPS (new) / / /

5-year-TIPS (reop) / / /

10-year TIPS (new) / / /

10-year TIPS (reop) / / /

30-year TIPS (new) / / /

30-year TIPS (reop) / / /

FRNs

2-year FRN / / /

2-year FRN (reop) / / /

Bills

1-mo bill / / /

2-mo bill / / /

3-mo bill / / /

4-mo bill

6-mo bill / / /

1-year bill / / /
Appendix

In order to gather more comprehensive information regarding the factors affecting Treasury’s borrowing needs, Part I 

requests estimates of “Other Means of Financing,” which is one of several components of the difference between budget 

deficits and privately-held net marketable borrowing (as shown in the Example below). “Other Means of Financing” 

includes items where the timing of government cash flows may differ from budget accounting, such as student loans and 

loans to small business. 

Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average two hours per response, including the 

time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and 

completing and reviewing the collection of information. An agency may not conduct or sponsor, and a person is not 

required to respond to, a collection of information unless it displays a valid OMB control number. The valid OMB 

control number for this information is 1505-0261. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of 

this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to the Department of the Treasury (Office of 

Debt Management, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20220).