Fact Sheet: 2022 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports 

Each year the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds 

report on the current and projected financial status of the two programs. The 

Trustees Reports include extensive information about the current operations 

of these important social insurance programs and careful analysis of their 

outlook. We believe the reports fully and fairly present the current and 

projected financial condition of the programs. This summary of the 2022 

reports presents results based on the intermediate set of assumptions, which 

represents our best estimates of likely future demographic, economic, and 

program-specific conditions.1 

Social Security and Medicare both face long-term financing shortfalls under 

currently scheduled benefits and financing. Costs of both programs will 

grow faster than gross domestic product (GDP) through the mid-2030s 

primarily due to the rapid aging of the U.S. population. Medicare costs will 

continue to grow faster than GDP through the late 2070s due to projected 

increases in the volume and intensity of services provided. 

The projections presented include our best estimates of the effects of the 

COVID-19 pandemic. Economic recovery from the 2020 recession has 

been stronger and faster than assumed in last year’s reports, with positive 

effects on the projected actuarial status of the trust funds in these reports. 

At this time, there is no consensus among experts on the lasting effects of 

the COVID-19 pandemic. We currently assume that the pandemic will 

have no net effect on our long-range projections. In addition, the 

assumptions for this report were determined in mid-February 2022. 

Developments since then have added to the uncertainty regarding the path 

of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economy in the near term. The 

Trustees will continue to monitor these and any future developments and 

modify the projections in later reports as appropriate. 

Based on our best estimates, the 2022 reports determine: 

• The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which 

pays retirement and survivors benefits, will be able to pay scheduled 

benefits on a timely basis until 2034, one year later than reported last 

1

 In addition to the results summarized in this document under the best-estimate, intermediate set of 

assumptions, the Trustees Reports include results illustrating ranges of uncertainty in measures of trust fund 

actuarial status. One approach develops results under low-cost and high-cost alternative sets of assumptions. 

A second approach conducts an analysis of the sensitivity of the projection to different assumptions by 

varying one assumption parameter at a time. 
year. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and 

continuing tax income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of 

scheduled benefits. 

• The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund, which pays disability 

benefits, is no longer projected to be depleted within the 75-year 

projection period. By comparison, last year's report projected that it 

would be able to pay scheduled benefits only until 2057. 

• The OASI and DI funds are separate entities under law. The report 

also presents information that combines the reserves of these two 

funds in order to illustrate the actuarial status of the Social Security 

program as a whole. The hypothetical combined OASI and DI funds 

would be able to pay scheduled benefits on a timely basis until 2035, 

one year later than reported last year. At that time, the combined 

funds’ reserves will become depleted and continuing tax income will 

be sufficient to pay 80 percent of scheduled benefits. 

• The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund, or Medicare Part A, which 

helps pay for services such as inpatient hospital care, will be able to 

pay scheduled benefits until 2028, two years later than reported last 

year. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and 

continuing total program income will be sufficient to pay 90 percent 

of total scheduled benefits. 

• The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund is 

adequately financed into the indefinite future because current law 

provides financing from general revenues and beneficiary premiums 

each year to meet the next year’s expected costs. Due to these 

funding provisions and the rapid growth of its costs, SMI will place 

steadily increasing demands on both taxpayers and beneficiaries. 

• For the sixth consecutive year, the Trustees are issuing a 

determination of projected excess general revenue Medicare funding, 

as is required by law whenever annual tax and premium revenues of 

the combined Medicare funds will be below 55 percent of projected 

combined annual outlays within the next 7 fiscal years. Under the 

law, two such consecutive determinations of projected excess 

general revenue constitute a “Medicare funding warning.” Under 

current law and the Trustees’ projections, such determinations and 

warnings will recur every year through the 75-year projection period. 
Key Changes Since Last Year 

The long-range 75-year actuarial deficit of the combined OASI and DI 

Trust Funds decreased from 3.54 to 3.42 percent of taxable payroll since the 

2021 reports.2

 As shown in Table 1, this result was due to the combined 

effects of changes in methodology, legislation, regulation, economic, 

demographic, and programmatic assumptions, and recent observed 

experience. The following changes had the largest effects on the actuarial 

deficit. 

• One long-range ultimate assumption was changed. The disability 

incidence rate was reduced from 5.0 to 4.8 per thousand individuals 

who meet insured requirements but who are not receiving benefits, 

reflecting that program applications and incidence rates have 

continued to decline in recent years from a peak in 2010. 

• Changes were made to near-term demographic data and assumptions 

to reflect updated birth and immigration data and to better reflect the 

expected effects of the recovery from the pandemic. 

• Changes were made to near-term economic data and assumptions 

reflecting that the recovery of employment, earnings, and GDP from 

the 2020 recession has been faster and stronger than projected in last 

year's report, resulting in higher payroll tax receipts and higher 

revenue from income taxation of Social Security benefits. Real 

interest rates are projected to be slightly higher in the near term, 

lowering the present value of projected future deficits. 

• The 75-year valuation period advanced from 2021-95 to 2022-96. 

2 The 75-year actuarial balance is a summary measure that calculates the difference between the 

projected summarized income rate and the summarized cost rate of the trust funds as a percentage of 

taxable payroll. When that balance is negative, or in “deficit,” projected income over the longrange valuation period (2022-96 for the 2022 reports) plus any trust fund reserves at the start of the 

period are insufficient to pay all program costs over the period and leave an adequate “contingency 

reserve” at the end of the period. 
 

 

 

Table 1.—Change in the OASDI 75-Year Actuarial Balance Since the 2021 Report,

Based on Intermediate Assumptions 

[As a percentage of taxable payroll] 

Item OASI DI OASDI 

Shown in the 2021 report: 

Actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.46 -0.08 -3.54 

Changes in actuarial balance due to changes in: 

Legislation / Regulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .00 .00 .00 

Valuation period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.05 -.01 -.06 

Demographic data and assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.04 .00 -.04 

Economic data and assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 .00 .13 

Disability data and assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .00 .08 .07 

Methods and programmatic data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .01 .00 .01 

Total change in actuarial balance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .05 .07 .12 

Shown in the 2022 report: 

Actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -3.41 -.01 -3.42 

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of components due to rounding. A 

negative actuarial balance is a deficit. 

The long-range 75-year actuarial deficit of the HI Trust Fund decreased 

from 0.77 to 0.70 percent of taxable payroll. As shown in Table 2, this 

result was due to the combined effects of economic, demographic, and 

programmatic assumptions, including the changes discussed above for 

OASDI, as well as adjustments to assumptions about private health plan 

spending. 

Table 2.—Change in the HI 75-Year Actuarial Balance Since the 2021 Report,

Based on Intermediate Assumptions 

[As a percentage of taxable payroll] 

Shown in the 2021 report: 

Actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.77 

Changes in actuarial balance due to changes in: 

Valuation period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.01 

Base estimate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .00 

Private health plan assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .07 

Hospital assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.03 

Other provider assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -.02 

Other economic and demographic assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .06 

Total change in actuarial balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .07 

Shown in the 2022 report: 

Actuarial balance .................................................................................................................................. -.70 

Note: A negative actuarial balance is a deficit. 

Conclusion 

Lawmakers have many policy options that would reduce or eliminate the 

long-term financing shortfalls in Social Security and Medicare. Taking 
action sooner rather than later will allow consideration of a broader range of 

solutions and provide more time to phase in changes so that the public has 

adequate time to prepare. 

By law, there are six Trustees, four of whom serve by virtue of their 

positions in the Federal Government: the Secretary of the Treasury, the 

Secretary of Labor, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and the 

Commissioner of Social Security. The other two Trustees are public 

representatives appointed by the President, subject to confirmation by the 

Senate. The two Public Trustee positions have been vacant since 2015.