OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – August 2023 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Meetings: July 27 – July 28, 2023

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, July 24, 2023 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1, 2

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

July-September 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

October-December 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2025 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

II. Economic Estimates 

Budget Deficit FY 2023 /

Budget Deficit FY 2024 /

Budget Deficit FY 2025 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2023 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2024 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve System does not redeem any maturing securities, this would increase the amount of cash 

raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.

2 See appendix for an example calculation of privately-held net marketable borrowing.
10-year note (Aug) /

10-year note reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

20-year bond (Aug) /

20-year bond reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

30-year bond (Aug) /

30-year bond reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

2-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

5-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

7-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

30-year TIPS reopening (Aug) /

10-year TIPS reopening (Sep) /

5-year TIPS (Oct) /

2-year FRN reopening (Aug/Sep) / / - /

2-year FRN (Oct) /

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates3

52-week bill size (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Aug‘23 – Oct‘23 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding Aug‘23 – Oct‘23 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2023 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2023 /

CMB issuance Aug‘23 – Oct‘23 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including changes in SOMA holdings), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2023 and FY2024.

2. The May refunding statement noted that based on projected intermediate- to long-term borrowing needs, Treasury 

may need to modestly increase coupon auction sizes later this year, potentially as soon as the August 2023 

refunding announcement. Please discuss your expectations for future coupon auction size increases. How should 

nominal coupon increases be allocated across the curve? Should Treasury also consider increasing FRNs and/or 

TIPS issuance?

Based on your answers to the above questions, please fill in the below table with your note and bond issuance 

expectations through CY 2024:

Note and Bond Issuance Expectations through CY 2024 ($ bn)

Month 2-year 3-year 5-year 7-year 10-year 20-year 30-year

2-year 

FRN

5-year 

TIPS

10-year 

TIPS

30-year 

TIPS

Aug. 23 x x

Sep. 23 x x

Oct. 23 x x

Nov. 23 x x

Dec. 23 x x

Jan. 24 x x

Feb. 24 x x

Mar. 24 x x

Apr. 24 x x

May 24 x x

Jun. 24 x x

Jul. 24 x x

3 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
Aug. 24 x x

Sep. 24 x x

Oct. 24 x x

Nov. 24 x x

Dec. 24 x x

3. At the May refunding, Treasury released a presentation on its current views on implementing a regular buyback 

program, and noted that it expects to begin a regular buyback program in calendar year 2024. Please discuss how 

Treasury should approach the following operational design parameters for buybacks under its cash management 

and liquidity support objectives:

• Should Treasury consider excluding certain CUSIPs from buyback operations, such as securities that are 

the cheapest-to-deliver against futures contracts, securities that are trading very special in the repo market, 

or near off-the-run securities?

• Should Treasury consider not purchasing a CUSIP if the private outstanding (i.e. total outstanding 

excluding SOMA) is below a certain level? Should this level vary by maturity sector?

• What measures should Treasury use to evaluate whether to accept offers submitted to a buyback 

operation? What are the risks and benefits of comparing such offers to prevailing market prices for the 

security and/or measures of relative value (for example, prices derived from a fitted yield curve/ spline 

prices)? Would such measures reliably indicate which securities would most benefit from liquidity 

support? If not, which other measures should be used?
Appendix

In order to gather more comprehensive information regarding the factors affecting Treasury’s borrowing needs, Part I 

requests estimates of “Other Means of Financing,” which is one of several components of the difference between budget 

deficits and privately-held net marketable borrowing (as shown in the Example below). “Other Means of Financing” 

includes items where the timing of government cash flows may differ from budget accounting, such as student loans and 

loans to small business. 

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