WRAP Regional Modeling Center - Simulation Specifications 

Scenario Name: 2002 Plan Version C Simulation 

RMC Code: “Plan02c”

Date Specifications Prepared: 6/19/2006, Last revised 10/31/2008.

Time Window for Modeling/Analysis: emissions modeling start date, targeted tech memo publication date, 

start simulation on June 16, complete results analysis by June 30, 2006. 

Description: 2002 Annual 36-km CMAQ air quality model simulation using typical 2002 emissions. 

Simulation Plan02c was developed solely to correct errors in the Plan02b WRAP fire chemical speciation and 

temporal variation for some fire categories. 

Purpose/Objective: The Plan02c case was developed for comparison to the Base 2018 version B simulation to 

evaluate regional haze air quality for typical 2002 conditions. Plan02c provides the 2002 baseline air quality 

and visibility conditions in the Western Class I Areas for evaluation uniform rate of progress and glide slope 

calculations. 

Expected Analysis Methods: Specific analysis methods will generally be determined based on the nature of 

the simulation and the stated purpose and objectives. These typically involve a number of standard postprocessing products used to elucidate relevant modeling results and analyses and aid in summarizing and 

interpreting the simulation results. For the present simulation these would include: 

• Standard displays of spatial distribution of concentrations of relevant pollutants (Sulfate, Nitrate, PM, 

OC, EC, etc..) for various temporal periods (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual totals) 

• Spatial difference plots of model predictions between plan02c and plan02b. 

• Daily average model extractions for entire year. Extractions will focus on IMPROVE sites in WRAP 

region, and will be used for future year visibility projections. 

Input Data: 

Emissions 

The Plan02c emissions data were identical to the Plan 2002 version B (Plan02b) emissions, except for 

correction to the fire emissions. The Plan02b emissions and the earlier version A emissions are described in 

pages 8-13 of the RMC 2006 annual report available at: 

http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports/final/2006/WRAP-RMC_2006_report_FINAL.pdf 

The emissions data summary and QA products for Plan02c can be found at:

http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/qa_plan02c36.shtml 
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The following emissions for the Plan02c case were from previous model simulations:

• From Base02a 

o BEIS3 biogenic emissions (includes soil NO) 

o Windblown fugitive PM dust emissions – all components from WRAP WB Dust model 

o WRAP NH3 from WRAP NH3 model 

o CENRAP and MWRPO NH3

o Gulf of Mexico offshore point 

o CENRAP, VISTAS, MANE-VU, MWRO on-road mobile 

o Ontario, Canada point fires 

o CENRAP and VISTAS point fires 

o CENRAP area fires 

o Mexico road dust 

• From Base02b 

o Stationary area 

o Fugitive dust 

o Road dust 

o Gulf of Mexico offshore area 

• From Plan02a 

o WRAP oil & gas 

o Non-road mobile 

o WRAP on-road mobile 

o Mexico and Canada on-road mobile 

o Eastern Pacific commercial shipping lanes 

o WRAP baseline wildfires 

o WRAP baseline wild land fire use 

• From Plan02b: 

o Stationary point 

The following emission updates were included in simulation Plan02c:

• Point Fires 

o WRAP: corrected PM2.5 speciation profile for non-federal rangeland and natural fires 

• Documentation on input data, model settings, and modeling/QA procedures provided through standard 

reporting products: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/emissions.shtml: 

o Simulation specification sheet 

o Summary of inventory inputs to the simulation with descriptions of the changes to each input

o Graphical QA summaries: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/qa_plan02c36.shtml

Other Inputs and Model Settings

• Initial and Boundary Conditions based on GEOS-CHEM simulation 

• Model version, settings and configuration same as for 2002 Base B (“base02b”) 

• Time period simulated – annual, typical year, meteorology for 2002 used 

Results 

Summary tables and maps
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Table 1. Plan02c annual emissions summary by regions 

Region CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5 PMC 

US 120434067 22967136 68885722 5402204 14592973 16017851 5078884 10972137

Total WRAP 29865323 5435028 22291444 955127 1600638 4863030 1746477 3147739

CENRAP 25180035 5744502 15539755 2686248 2697271 7253137 1740629 3665466

VISTAS 30660217 5505986 19954197 666759 4668107 2124688 895975 1162248

MWRPO 16126261 3249972 5323150 115554 3258891 889922 289142 483281

MANE-VU 18465067 2712780 5682955 484312 2324216 882683 402358 462041

Canada 13979028 3039078 21070860 286985 2591763 2805233 755115 2050162

Mexico 2854296 531733 12139368 208283 801693 521433 143906 377562

Pacific 

Shipping 81731 1049526 37173 293 561084 70436 70436 0

Total 257646024 50235740 170924624 10805765 33096636 35428412 11122922 22320638

Table 2. Plan02c WRAP total annual emissions by sector 

Sector CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5 PMC 

Fires 9233544 212729 458075 49153 55777 757160 655295 122595

Area 1316293 263838 1418657 24562 94282 559854 229925 329964

Point 568813 927448 271873 11497 785552 158547 45865 123098

Non Road 3957511 970486 526393 972 70152 76003 70815 5188

Onroad 12070133 1591639 1000548 51395 30029 72829 62207 10622

Biogenic 2624814 286996 18197340 0 0 0 0 0

WOG 12485 132365 381385 0 3763 0 0 0

Road Dust 0 0 0 0 0 581980 63358 518630

Fugitive Dust 0 0 0 0 0 624057 116901 507152

Wind-Blown 

Dust 0 0 0 0 0 1962165 431676 1530489

Offshore 

Platforms 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Offshore 

Shipping 81731 1049526 37173 293 561084 70436 70436 0

Ag Ammonia 0 0 0 817256 0 0 0 0

Total 29865323 5435028 22291444 955127 1600638 4863030 1746477 3147739

Emissions Summary

Simulation Plan02c was created to correct errors in the chemical speciation and temporal variation of natural 

and non-federal rangeland fires in the WRAP region. The corrections to these two emissions categories are the 

only differences between simulations Plan02c and its predecessor, simulation Plan02b. An incorrect application 

of the default VOC and PM2.5 chemical speciation profiles for these two fire categories resulted in VOC being 

split to all eight CB-IV species and PM2.5 converted to only PMFINE. Applying the correct profiles to these 

emissions resulted in the VOC being converted to four CB-IV species and PM2.5 to all five PM species. 

Corrections to the temporal profiles for these same fire sources resulted in changing from the default flat diurnal 

profile to a profile that emits only between 0800 and 2000 local time with the emissions peaking at 1600-1700. 

Analysis of the emissions modeling results illustrates that the changes in simulation Plan02c relative to Plan02b 

do only occur in the WRAP states and in disperse grid cells, a spatial pattern that is indicative of fire emissions. 

There are slight changes in all pollutants on an annual basis due to the updates to the diurnal temporal profiles, 

an artifact of converting from local time to GMT. The larger changes in the VOC and PM emissions are due to 

the shift in speciation from the default speciation profiles to source-specific profiles. 
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Visibility Modeling Results 

The Plan02c case was the third iteration in the 2002 Planning Case typical-year emissions scenario and are r 

described on pages 14-16 of the RMC 2006 Final Report. The RMC created case Plan02c to correct one error 

that we discovered in the Plan02b emissions. To create case Plan02c from Plan02b, we updated the WRAP nonFederal rangeland prescribed fire emissions. When we added this inventory to the WRAP modeling, we did not 

update the speciation and temporal cross-reference file to reflect the addition. The result was that we incorrectly 

applied the default diurnal temporal profile and VOC and PM2.5 speciation profiles to these emissions. In case 

Plan02c we applied the correct temporal and speciation profiles to these sources. Although these fires account 

for only 0.5% of the total annual WRAP PM2.5 emissions, we made this change because their episodic and 

localized nature concentrate the emissions in a few grid cells in short time periods, leading to a magnification of 

the impacts from these sources. 

Relevant Output Products 

Spatial plots of the CMAQ visibility modeling results can be found at: 

www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#plan02c_vs_plan02b

• Model output products include daily, monthly and annual average spatial distributions of Regional Haze 

contributing pollutants. 

• Daily average concentrations for key aerosol species, including SO4, NO3, OC, EC, SOIL, and CM, 

along with gaseous species NO2, are extracted for IMPROVE sites located in WRAP region. The 

extraction contains annual data and will be used for visibility projections. 

Figures 1 through 4 show annual average plots of PM species for the Plan02c simulation. The results are almost 

identical to the Plan02b results for the annual average. However, there are differences in the daily averages for 

the Plan02c and Plan02b, and those results are available at the RMC webpage at the above link. 

Additional results are available at the TSS webpage: 

http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/Modeling.aspx

Summary of Key Findings

The Plan02c case is discussed in detail in the RMC final report which is available at the RMC webpage: 

www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/docs.shtml 

The Plan02c case was used with the Base18b case for initial evaluation of the Uniform Rate of Progress (URP) 

at Class I areas in the WRAP region. After completing this initial analysis, several updates to the 2002 Planning 

case emissions became available, and some errors in the original emissions were corrected to create the Plan02d 

case. All future analysis will use the Plan02d cases instead of Plan02c. 

The Plan02c should not be compared to 2018 Preliminary Reasonable Progress (PRP18) simulation because the 

emissions inventories are not consistent. Significant emissions updates were made to the Plan 2002 version D 

(Plan02d) emissions and that simulation should be used for comparison to the PRP18 simulation. 
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Figure 1. Left panel shows annual average sulfate (top) and nitrate (bottom) CMAQ simulated concentrations 

for Plan02c. 
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Figure 2. Left panel shows annual average ammonium (top) and ozone (bottom) CMAQ simulated 

concentrations for Plan02c. 

 
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Figure 3. Left panel shows annual average elemental carbon (top) and organic carbon (bottom) CMAQ 

simulated concentrations for Plan02c. 
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Figure 4. Annual average coarse matter (top) and total PM2.5 (bottom) CMAQ simulated concentrations for 

Plan02c.