OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – November 2021 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Calls: October 28 – October 29, 2021

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, October 25, 2021 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

October-December 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

January-March 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

FY 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

FY 2022 /

FY 2023 /

FY 2024 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2021 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2021 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

10-year note (Nov) /

10-year note reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

20-year bond (Nov) /

20-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

30-year bond (Nov) /

30-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

2-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

5-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

7-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

10-year TIPS reopening (Nov) /

5-year TIPS reopening (Dec) /

10-year TIPS (Jan) /

2-year FRN reopening (Nov/Dec) / / - /

2-year FRN (Jan) /

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a 

given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.
IV. Bill Issuance Estimates2

52-week bill size (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Nov ‘21 - Jan ‘22 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding Nov ‘21 - Jan ‘22 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2022 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2022 /

CMB issuance Nov ‘21 – Jan ‘22 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including SOMA investment), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2022 and FY2023.

2. Please describe any notable changes over the last few years in the market structure of the dealer-to-customer 

segment of the Treasury market, including with regard to specific participant types, methods of execution, 

margining practices, means of clearing, or other significant developments. How have those changes affected 

liquidity conditions within this market segment?

3. Based on your outlook for Treasury’s financing needs and your view on the appropriate level of bills outstanding 

in the medium and long-term, do you think Treasury should consider making the 17-week a benchmark bill tenor? 

To help inform Treasury’s considerations, how large could current benchmark bill auction sizes become without 

causing significant yield deviations from fair value? Would such benchmark bill auction sizes be sufficient to 

support the level of bills outstanding you expect?

2 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
Part 2:

Given your expectations for borrowing needs over the next three fiscal years (as presented in question 1), Treasury would like 

your expectations for:

1. Auction sizes ($bn) in all tenors by the end of FY22, FY23, and FY24, and 

2. Auction size ranges ($bn) that would not surprise you across all tenors by the end of FY22, FY23, and FY24.

Auction size estimates should take into account the amount net of SOMA add-ons of Treasury securities.

Tenor

Size 

Expectation for

FY22

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for

FY23

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for

FY24

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Nominals

2-year / / /

3-year / / /

5-year / / /

7-year / / /

10-year (new) / / /

10-year (reop) / / /

20-year (new) / / /

20-year (reop) / / /

30-year (new) / / /

30-year (reop) / / /

TIPS

5-year TIPS (new) / / /

5-year-TIPS (reop) / / /

10-year TIPS (new) / / /

10-year TIPS (reop) / / /

30-year TIPS (new) / / /

30-year TIPS (reop) / / /

FRNs

2-year FRN / / /

2-year FRN (reop) / / /

Bills

1-mo bill / / /

2-mo bill / / /

3-mo bill / / /

6-mo bill / / /

1-year bill / / /

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control number for this information is 1505-0261. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of 

this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to the Department of the Treasury (Office of 

Debt Management, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20220).