OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – August 2021 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Calls: July 29 – July 30, 2021

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, July 26, 2021 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

July-September 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

October-December 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

FY 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

FY 2021 /

FY 2022 /

FY 2023 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2021 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2021 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

10-year note (Aug) /

10-year note reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

20-year bond (Aug) /

20-year bond reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

30-year bond (Aug) /

30-year bond reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

2-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

5-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

7-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

30-year TIPS reopening (Aug) /

10-year TIPS reopening (Sep) /

5-year TIPS (Oct) /

2-year FRN reopening (Aug/Sep) / / - /

2-year FRN (Oct) /

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a 

given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.
IV. Bill Issuance Estimates2

52-week bill size (Aug/Sep/Oct ) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Aug ‘21 - Oct ‘21 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding Aug ‘21 - Oct ‘21 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2021 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2021 /

CMB issuance Aug ‘21 – Oct ‘21 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including SOMA investment), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2021 and FY2022.

2. In May, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee wrote that it “anticipates that Treasury may want to reduce 

nominal coupon sizes beginning late this year or early next year.” Given your forecast for Treasury’s borrowing 

requirements, what is your outlook for issuance sizes across the curve, including bills, and when should Treasury 

consider making adjustments to auction sizes at different maturity points? 

3. Please discuss your expectations for TIPS auction sizes for the rest of calendar year 2021 and for calendar year 

2022. Relatedly, please discuss your views on the main drivers for movements in TIPS yields over the last year at 

different tenors. To what extent have these movements been driven by TIPS liquidity, inflation expectations, or 

other factors, and what indicators do you use to inform your understanding of how TIPS are performing across the 

curve?

Based on your answers to the above questions, please fill in the below table with your note and bond issuance 

expectations through CY 2022:

Note and Bond Issuance Expectations through CY 2022 ($ bn)

Month 2-year 3-year 5-year 7-year 10-year 20-year 30-year

2-year 

FRN

5-year 

TIPS

10-year 

TIPS

30-year 

TIPS

Aug. 21 x x

Sep. 21 x x

Oct. 21 x x

Nov. 21 x x

Dec. 21 x x

Jan. 22 x x

Feb. 22 x x

Mar. 22 x x

Apr. 22 x x

May 22 x x

Jun. 22 x x

Jul. 22 x x

Aug. 22 x x

Sep. 22 x x

Oct. 22 x x

Nov. 22 x x

Dec. 22 x x

Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average two hours per response, including the 

time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and 

completing and reviewing the collection of information. An agency may not conduct or sponsor, and a person is not 

required to respond to, a collection of information unless it displays a valid OMB control number. The valid OMB 

control number for this information is 1505-0261. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of 

this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to the Department of the Treasury (Office of 

Debt Management, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20220).

2 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).