OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – November 2020 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Calls: October 29 – October 30, 2020

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, October 26, 2020 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

October-December 2020 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

January-March 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

FY 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

FY 2021 /

FY 2022 /

FY 2023 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2020 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2021 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2020 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2021 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

10-year note (Nov) /

10-year note reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

20-year bond (Nov) /

20-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

30-year bond (Nov) /

30-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

2-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

5-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

7-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

10-year TIPS reopening (Nov) /

5-year TIPS reopening (Dec) /

10-year TIPS (Jan) /

2-year FRN reopening (Nov/Dec) / / - /

2-year FRN (Jan) /

 

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a 

given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.
IV. Bill Issuance Estimates2

52-week bill size (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Nov ‘20 - Jan ‘21 /

Change in privately held bills outstanding Nov ‘20 - Jan ‘21 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2021 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2021 /

CMB issuance Nov ‘20 – Jan ‘21 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal and monetary policy, and Treasury financing forecasts for FY2021 and 

FY2022.

2. In response to increased borrowing needs, Treasury has increased coupon auction sizes for nominal coupons and 

FRNs, but has kept TIPS auction sizes unchanged since 2019. Should Treasury consider increasing TIPS auction 

sizes in the near-term to meet future borrowing needs and, if so, when and at what tenors (5-, 10-, and 30-year)? 

Please explain your reasoning. What effect, if any, do you expect the Federal Reserve’s recent announcement 

regarding inflation targeting to have on TIPS demand?

3. Please discuss drivers of the recent increase in bank demand for U.S. Treasuries. To what extent has this demand 

been influenced by increased bank deposits, the level of bank reserves, temporary relief from the Supplementary 

Leverage Ratio (SLR) provided by bank regulators, or other factors? Where possible, please support your answer 

with relevant data.

 

2 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
Part 2:

Given your expectations for borrowing needs over the next three fiscal years (as presented in question 1), Treasury would like 

your expectations for:

1. Auction sizes ($bn) in all tenors by the end of FY21, FY22, and FY23, and 

2. Auction size ranges ($bn) that would not surprise you across all tenors by the end of FY21, FY22, and FY23.

Auction size estimates should take into account the amount net of SOMA add-ons of Treasury securities.

Tenor

Size 

Expectation for

FY21

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for

FY22

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for

FY23

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Nominals

2-year / / /

3-year / / /

5-year / / /

7-year / / /

10-year (new) / / /

10-year (reop) / / /

20-year (new) / / /

20-year (reop) / / /

30-year (new) / / /

30-year (reop) / / /

TIPS

5-year TIPS (new) / / /

5-year-TIPS (reop) / / /

10-year TIPS (new) / / /

10-year TIPS (reop) / / /

30-year TIPS (new) / / /

30-year TIPS (reop) / / /

FRNs

2-year FRN / / /

2-year FRN (reop) / / /

Bills

1-mo bill / / /

2-mo bill / / /

3-mo bill / / /

6-mo bill / / /

1-year bill / / /

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