OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – February 2024 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Meetings: Jan 25 – Jan 26, 2024

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please submit your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, January 22, 2024. Even 

if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

Please note in your forecasts the following:

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1, 2 Central Estimate

Range that would 

not surprise you

Low/High

January-March 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

April-June 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2025 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2026 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

II. Economic Estimates

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve System does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised 

for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. 2 See appendix for an example calculation of privately-held net marketable borrowing.

Note: Other Means of Financing include cash flows associated 

with federal credit programs, such as those related to student 

loans and loans to small businesses.
Budget Deficit FY 2024 /

Budget Deficit FY 2025 /

Budget Deficit FY 2026 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2025 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2026

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2025 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2026

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2025 /

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2026

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2025 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2026

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2024 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2025 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2026 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates3

3-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / / 

10-year note (Feb) /

10-year note reopening (Mar/Apr) / / - /

20-year bond (Feb) /

20-year bond reopening (Mar/Apr) / / - /

30-year bond (Feb) /

30-year bond reopening (Mar/Apr) / / - /

2-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / / 

5-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / / 

7-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / / 

30-year TIPS (Feb) /

10-year TIPS reopening (Mar) /

5-year TIPS (Apr) /

2-year FRN reopening (Feb/Mar) / / - /

2-year FRN (Apr) /

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates

52-week bill size (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Feb‘24 - Apr‘24 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding Feb‘24 - Apr‘24 /

3 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
Total change in bills outstanding FY 2024 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2024 /

CMB issuance Feb ‘24 – Apr‘24 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including changes in SOMA holdings), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2024 and FY2025.

2. Please discuss your 2024 outlook for money markets. How will quantitative tightening, the projected supply of money 

market substitutes, and other factors affect the demand for short-term Treasuries and Treasury repurchase agreements 

in the coming year?

3. How have recent inflation trends influenced the demand for inflation-linked securities globally? How have changes in 

international issuance of inflation-linked bonds affected overseas demand for TIPS? Please estimate the market’s 

capacity to absorb possible incremental increases in TIPS issuance during the 2024 calendar year.
Appendix

In order to gather more comprehensive information regarding the factors affecting Treasury’s borrowing needs, Part I 

requests estimates of “Other Means of Financing,” which is one of several components of the difference between budget 

deficits and privately-held net marketable borrowing (as shown in the Example below). “Other Means of Financing” 

includes items where the timing of government cash flows may differ from budget accounting, such as student loans and 

loans to small business. 

Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average two hours per response, including the 

time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and 

completing and reviewing the collection of information. An agency may not conduct or sponsor, and a person is not 

required to respond to, a collection of information unless it displays a valid OMB control number. The valid OMB 

control number for this information is 1505-0261. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of 

this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to the Department of the Treasury (Office of 

Debt Management, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20220).