OMB Control No. 1505-0261 

Agenda – November 2022 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Calls: October 27 – October 28, 2022 

Dealer ___________________ 

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, October 24, 2022 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1, 2

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

October-December 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

January-March 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2025 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

FY 2023 /

FY 2024 /

FY 2025 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

10-year note (Nov) /

10-year note reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

20-year bond (Nov) /

20-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

30-year bond (Nov) /

30-year bond reopening (Dec/Jan) / / - /

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve System does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised 

for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. 2 See appendix for an example calculation of privately-held net marketable borrowing.
2-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

5-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

7-year note (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / /

10-year TIPS reopening (Nov) /

5-year TIPS reopening (Dec) /

10-year TIPS (Jan) /

2-year FRN reopening (Nov/Dec) / / - /

2-year FRN (Jan) /

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates3

52-week bill size (Nov/Dec/Jan) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Nov‘22 - Jan‘23 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding Nov‘22 - Jan‘23 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2023 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2023 /

CMB issuance Nov ‘22 – Jan‘23 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including changes in SOMA holdings), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2023 and FY2024. 

2. In previous presentations on Treasury buybacks (August 2022 and February 2015), as part of their analysis of the 

topic, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee offered several reasons why Treasury might consider the use 

of buybacks, including liquidity support and cash and maturity management. In order to better assess the merits 

and limitations of implementing a buyback program, we would like your views on whether Treasury should 

consider implementing such a program, and on the following specific questions: 

• If buybacks were conducted to support liquidity in off-the-run securities, how much would Treasury need 

to buy back annually to meaningfully improve liquidity? How would such amounts vary across security 

types and maturities? What are the trade-offs between conducting operations regularly versus ad-hoc and 

across the full product set versus in specific maturities/security types? 

• If buybacks were conducted for cash and maturity management purposes, would the possibility of 

reduced volatility in T-bill issuance be a meaningful benefit for Treasury or investors? Please also 

comment on the available supply/effective float of coupon securities nearing maturity and the potential 

ability of dealers to source them if Treasury buybacks were to target these securities.

• In general, if buybacks were funded with larger on-the-run issuance, how should Treasury compare the 

benefits of buybacks with the associated costs of larger issuance sizes? What, if any, transactions costs 

would Treasury incur through buybacks? 

• What other concerns or limitations should Treasury be aware of when considering buybacks? For 

example, are there scenarios where buybacks could negatively affect overall liquidity or interfere with 

regular and predictable issuance?

3. Treasury has gradually increased TIPS issuance in calendar year 2022, albeit at a slower pace than in calendar 

year 2021. How has the TIPS market responded to the increases in issuance thus far this year? Should Treasury 

consider further increases to TIPS issuance in calendar year 2023? What factors should Treasury consider? 

3 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
Part 2: 

Given your expectations for borrowing needs over the next three fiscal years (as presented in question 1), Treasury would like 

your expectations for: 

1. Auction sizes ($bn) in all tenors by the end of FY23, FY24, and FY25, and 

2. Auction size ranges ($bn) that would not surprise you across all tenors by the end of FY23, FY24, and FY25. 

Auction size estimates should take into account the amount net of SOMA add-ons of Treasury securities.

Tenor

Size 

Expectation for

FY23 

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for

FY24 

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for

FY25 

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Nominals

2-year / / /

3-year / / /

5-year / / /

7-year / / /

10-year (new) / / /

10-year (reop) / / /

20-year (new) / / /

20-year (reop) / / /

30-year (new) / / /

30-year (reop) / / /

TIPS

5-year TIPS (new) / / /

5-year-TIPS (reop) / / /

10-year TIPS (new) / / /

10-year TIPS (reop) / / /

30-year TIPS (new) / / /

30-year TIPS (reop) / / /

FRNs

2-year FRN / / /

2-year FRN (reop) / / /

Bills

1-mo bill / / /

2-mo bill / / /

3-mo bill / / /

4-mo bill

6-mo bill / / /

1-year bill / / /
Appendix

In order to gather more comprehensive information regarding the factors affecting Treasury’s borrowing needs, Part I 

requests estimates of “Other Means of Financing,” which is one of several components of the difference between budget 

deficits and privately-held net marketable borrowing (as shown in the Example below). “Other Means of Financing” 

includes items where the timing of government cash flows may differ from budget accounting, such as student loans and 

loans to small business. 

 

Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average two hours per response, including the 

time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and 

completing and reviewing the collection of information. An agency may not conduct or sponsor, and a person is not 

required to respond to, a collection of information unless it displays a valid OMB control number. The valid OMB 

control number for this information is 1505-0261. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of 

this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to the Department of the Treasury (Office of 

Debt Management, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20220).