OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – February 2023 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Calls: January 26 – January 27, 2023

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, January 23, 2023 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1, 2

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

January-March 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

April-June 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2025 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing /

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

II. Economic Estimates 

Budget Deficit FY 2023 /

Budget Deficit FY 2024 /

Budget Deficit FY 2025 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Headline CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Core CPI (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2024 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2023 /

Unemployment rate (4Q Avg) CY 2024 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / /

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve System does not redeem any maturing securities, this would increase the amount of cash 

raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.

2 See appendix for an example calculation of privately-held net marketable borrowing.
10-year note (Feb) /

10-year note reopening (Mar/Apr) / / - /

20-year bond (Feb) /

20-year bond reopening (Mar/Apr) / / - /

30-year bond (Feb) /

30-year bond reopening (Mar/Apr) / / - /

2-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / /

5-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / /

7-year note (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / /

30-year TIPS (Feb) /

10-year TIPS reopening (Mar) /

5-year TIPS (Apr) /

2-year FRN reopening (Feb/Mar) / / - /

2-year FRN (Apr) /

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates3

52-week bill size (Feb/Mar/Apr) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Feb‘23 – Apr‘23 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding Feb‘23 – Apr‘23 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2023 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2023 /

CMB issuance Feb ‘23 – Apr‘23 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including changes in SOMA holdings), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2023 and FY2024.

2. In remarks at the 2022 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Liang proposed 

a policy of publicly releasing transaction data for secondary market on-the-run nominal coupons, with end-of-day 

dissemination and with appropriate cap sizes to minimize potential risks associated with intermediating larger 

trades. What are your views on the key design elements to implement this policy? Would an earlier 

dissemination (e.g., 60 minutes post execution) be more or less beneficial? How should dissemination be 

designed (e.g., identifiers, exclusions) for transactions conducted in conjunction with other transactions (e.g., onvs. off-the-run switches, curve trades, etc.)? How should Treasury consider appropriate cap sizes and evaluate 

whether they are working as intended? 

Please provide estimates for the minimum cap size for large trades for each on-the-run nominal coupon tenor that 

would not materially reduce liquidity providers’ abilities to intermediate large trades, assuming an end-of-day 

dissemination.

On-the-run 

Nominal Coupon 

Tenor 2-year 3-year 5-year 7-year 10-year 20-year 30-year

Minimum Cap 

Size for Large 

Trades (in $ 

millions)

Would your cap size estimates change if transactions were disseminated 60 minutes after execution? If so, how 

would it change?

3 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
3. Would changes to the auction schedule to reduce the number of CUSIPS for Treasury securities issued each year 

meaningfully improve Treasury market liquidity? For example, should Treasury consider changing the monthly 

new issue auction schedule for the 2-, 3-, 5-, and 7-year nominal coupon benchmarks to one new issue and two 

reopening auctions per quarter, similar to the auction schedule of the 10-, 20-, and 30-year nominal coupon 

benchmarks? Under such an approach, what would the benefits and risks be of staggering the new issues of 2-, 3-

, 5-, and 7-year nominal coupons across the calendar quarter instead of concentrating them in the refunding month 

with the 10-, 20-, and 30-year nominal coupon new issues?4 How might such a change affect liquidity? Are there 

other auction calendar changes Treasury should consider? Do you have any concerns with changing the current 

auction schedule?

4 As an illustrative and hypothetical example of the staggered approach in a calendar quarter: 2- and 3-year securities new issues in the 

first month of the quarter; 10-, 20-, and 30-year securities new issues in the second month of the quarter; and 5- and 7-year securities 

new issues in the third month of the quarter; each security would still be auctioned monthly (reopened in the other months).
Appendix

In order to gather more comprehensive information regarding the factors affecting Treasury’s borrowing needs, Part I 

requests estimates of “Other Means of Financing,” which is one of several components of the difference between budget 

deficits and privately-held net marketable borrowing (as shown in the Example below). “Other Means of Financing” 

includes items where the timing of government cash flows may differ from budget accounting, such as student loans and 

loans to small business. 

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control number for this information is 1505-0261. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of 

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Debt Management, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20220).