DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY

OFFICE OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS

 

For Immediate Release CONTACT: Sean Kevelighan 

January 30, 2006 (202) 622-6865 

TREASURY ANNOUNCES MARKET FINANCING ESTIMATES 

The Treasury Department announced today that it expects net borrowing of marketable debt to total 

$188 billion in the January – March 2006 quarter. The estimated cash balance on March 31 is $15 

billion. On October 31, Treasury announced estimated net market borrowing of $171 billion this 

quarter and a March 31 cash balance of $15 billion. Adjusting for a beginning-of-quarter cash 

balance that was $12 billion higher than estimated in October, the current borrowing estimate is $29 

billion higher than previously announced. The increase in anticipated borrowing is primarily the 

result of higher outlays, including a timing shift from the October – December 2005 quarter, and 

lower net issues of State and Local Government Series securities. Based on current projections, 

Treasury continues to believe that the statutory debt limit will be reached in mid-February 2006.

Treasury also announced that it expects a net pay down in marketable debt of $30 billion in the 

April – June 2006 quarter. The estimated cash balance on June 30 is $25 billion. 

Treasury borrowed $93 billion in net marketable debt in the October – December 2005 quarter. The

cash balance on December 31 was $37 billion. On October 31, Treasury announced estimated net 

market borrowing of $96 billion and an end-of-quarter cash balance of $25 billion. Adjusting for 

the higher-than-estimated cash balance at quarter-end, the net market borrowing need was $15 

billion lower than announced in October. The improvement was primarily the result of lower 

outlays and unanticipated repayments of outstanding debt to the IMF.

Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 9:00 

A.M. on Wednesday, February 1. The following link provides access to Treasury documents 

related to this Quarterly Refunding. (http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debtmanagement/quarterly-refunding/)
2

TREASURY ANNOUNCES MARKET FINANCING ESTIMATES 

Today, the Treasury Department announced net borrowing of marketable debt for the January–

March 2006 and April-June 2006 quarters. 

Quarter 

Estimated 

Borrowing 

($ billion) 

Estimated 

End-of-Quarter 

Cash Balance 

($ billion) 

Jan-Mar 2006 $188 $15 

Apr-Jun 2006 ($30) $25 

Since 1997, the average absolute forecast error in net borrowing of marketable debt for the current 

quarter is $10 billion and the average absolute forecast error for the end-of-quarter cash balance is 

$9 billion. Similarly, the average absolute forecast error for the following quarter is $31 billion and 

the average absolute forecast error for the end-of-quarter cash balance is $11 billion. 

The following tables reconcile the variation between forecasted and actual net borrowing of 

marketable debt in the October-December 2005 quarter. 

Quarter 

Estimated 

Borrowing 

($ billions) 

Actual 

Borrowing 

($ billions) 

Estimated 

End-ofQuarter Cash 

Balance 

($ billions) 

Actual 

End-ofQuarter Cash 

Balance 

($ billions) 

Oct-Dec 2005 $96 $93 $25 $37 

Categories 

Chg from 

Nov Estimate 

Receipts $1 

Outlays $7 

Other $8 

Larger End-ofQuarter Cash 

Balance 

($12) 

Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 9:00 

A.M. on Wednesday, February 1. The following link provides access to Treasury documents 

related to this Quarterly Refunding. (http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debtmanagement/quarterly-refunding/) 

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