OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – August 2022 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Calls: July 28 – July 29, 2022

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, July 25, 2022 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1, 2

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

July-September 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

October-December 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

FY 2024 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

 Other Means of Financing

 SOMA Redemptions of Treasury Securities /

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

FY 2022 /

FY 2023 /

FY 2024 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2023 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

10-year note (Aug) /

10-year note reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

20-year bond (Aug) /

20-year bond reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

30-year bond (Aug) /

30-year bond reopening (Sep/Oct) / / - /

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve System does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised 

for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.

2 See appendix for an example calculation of privately-held net marketable borrowing.
2-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

5-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

7-year note (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / /

30-year TIPS reopening (Aug) /

10-year TIPS reopening (Sep) /

5-year TIPS (Oct) /

2-year FRN reopening (Aug/Sep) / / - /

2-year FRN (Oct) /

IV. Bill Issuance Estimates3

52-week bill size (Aug/Sep/Oct) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding Aug‘22 - Oct‘22 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding Aug ‘22 - Oct‘22 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2022 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2022 /

CMB issuance Aug ‘22 – Oct‘22 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including changes in SOMA holdings), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2022 and FY2023.

2. At the May refunding, Treasury noted that additional reductions in nominal coupon auction sizes in future 

quarters may be necessary depending on developments in projected borrowing needs. Based on your updated 

estimates for Treasury's borrowing needs, should Treasury consider additional reductions to nominal coupon 

auction sizes at the August refunding? If so, how should those reductions be made across the nominal coupon 

curve? Additionally, Treasury bills are currently approximately 15 percent of total marketable debt outstanding, 

and this share, depending on several factors including the fiscal path, monetary policy, and Treasury's issuance 

choices, might decline in the coming quarters. How should Treasury factor this into upcoming coupon issuance 

size decisions?

3. Please discuss your expectations for investor demand for Treasury bills in the near and medium term. How do 

you expect demand will change, if at all, during the Federal Reserve System's balance sheet reduction and as 

policy rate expectations evolve? What are your expectations for government money market mutual funds' assets 

under management and their demand for bills? What about other investors? Are there other factors Treasury 

should be aware of when considering Treasury bill demand going forward?

3 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
Appendix

In order to gather more comprehensive information regarding the factors affecting Treasury’s borrowing needs, beginning 

this quarter Part I requests estimates of “Other Means of Financing,” which is one of several components of the difference 

between budget deficits and privately-held net marketable borrowing (as shown in the Example below). “Other Means of 

Financing” includes items where the timing of government cash flows may differ from budget accounting, such as student 

loans and loans to small business. 

Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average two hours per response, including the 

time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and 

completing and reviewing the collection of information. An agency may not conduct or sponsor, and a person is not 

required to respond to, a collection of information unless it displays a valid OMB control number. The valid OMB 

control number for this information is 1505-0261. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of 

this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to the Department of the Treasury (Office of 

Debt Management, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20220).