OMB Control No. 1505-0261

Agenda – May 2021 Refunding

Treasury Dealer Calls: April 29 – April 30, 2021

Dealer ___________________

To allow more time for discussion, please e-mail your responses prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, April 26, 2021 to 

Debt.Management@treasury.gov and NY.QTR@ny.frb.org. Even if you are not scheduled to meet with Treasury 

officials this quarter, your responses are still appreciated. 

I. Privately-Held Marketable Borrowing Estimates1

Central

Estimate

Range that would not 

surprise you

Low/High

April-June 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

July-September 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

 Ending Cash Balance /

FY 2021 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2022 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

FY 2023 Privately-Held Net Marketable Borrowing /

II. Budget Deficit and Growth Estimates 

FY 2021 /

FY 2022 /

FY 2023 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2021 /

Real GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2021 /

Nominal GDP (4Q/4Q % Chg) CY 2022 /

III. Quarterly Note and Bond Issuance Estimates

3-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / /

10-year note (May) /

10-year note reopening (Jun/Jul) / / - /

20-year bond (May) /

20-year bond reopening (Jun/Jul) / / - /

30-year bond (May) /

30-year bond reopening (Jun/Jul) / / - /

2-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / /

5-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / /

7-year note (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / /

10-year TIPS reopening (May) /

5-year TIPS reopening (Jun) /

10-year TIPS (Jul) /

2-year FRN reopening (May/Jun) / / - /

2-year FRN (Jul) /

1 Privately-held marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s 

System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of 

Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities

mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a 

given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.
IV. Bill Issuance Estimates2

52-week bill size (May/Jun/Jul) / / / / - / / 

Total change in bills outstanding May ‘21 - Jul ‘21 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding May ‘21 - Jul ‘21 /

Total change in bills outstanding FY 2021 /

Change in privately-held bills outstanding FY 2021 /

CMB issuance May ‘21 – Jul ‘21 (size/date) / / /

Discussion Topics

1. Please discuss your latest economic, fiscal, monetary policy (including SOMA investment), and Treasury 

financing forecasts for FY2021 and FY2022.

2. It has been nearly one year since Treasury reintroduced the 20-year bond. Please comment on how the 20-year 

security has performed relative to expectations for a new issue. What are the primary sources of customer demand 

for this security and how does it currently compare with other long-end Treasury securities? Are there any 

adjustments, including to auction sizes or auction calendar placement, that should be considered for the 20-year 

bond? 

3. In light of the expiration of the debt limit suspension period on July 31, please comment on the impacts that 

reinstatement of the debt limit could have on the Treasury market as well as on broader financial markets. What 

are your expectations for the supply of T-bills over the next 3 months, and how do you expect Treasury to adjust 

issuance to effectuate this change in supply?

2 Privately-held bills exclude SOMA holdings. As such, the difference between “Total change in bills outstanding” and “Change in 

privately-held bills outstanding” should reflect SOMA secondary market purchases/sales (or redemption of maturing securities).
Part 2:

Given your expectations for borrowing needs over the next three fiscal years (as presented in question 1), Treasury would like 

your expectations for:

1. Auction sizes ($bn) in all tenors by the end of FY21, FY22, and FY23, and 

2. Auction size ranges ($bn) that would not surprise you across all tenors by the end of FY21, FY22, and FY23.

Auction size estimates should take into account the amount net of SOMA add-ons of Treasury securities.

Tenor

Size 

Expectation for

FY21

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for

FY22

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Size 

Expectation for

FY23

Year-end

Range that 

would not 

surprise you:

Low/High

Nominals

2-year / / /

3-year / / /

5-year / / /

7-year / / /

10-year (new) / / /

10-year (reop) / / /

20-year (new) / / /

20-year (reop) / / /

30-year (new) / / /

30-year (reop) / / /

TIPS

5-year TIPS (new) / / /

5-year-TIPS (reop) / / /

10-year TIPS (new) / / /

10-year TIPS (reop) / / /

30-year TIPS (new) / / /

30-year TIPS (reop) / / /

FRNs

2-year FRN / / /

2-year FRN (reop) / / /

Bills

1-mo bill / / /

2-mo bill / / /

3-mo bill / / /

6-mo bill / / /

1-year bill / / /

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