# Eight–Hour Ozone Redesignation Request and Maintenance Plan for the Knoxville, Tennessee Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area (1997 Ozone NAAQS)

July 2010

Prepared by:

Tennessee Departm e nt of Environm ent and Conservation Division of Air Pollution Control 9 th 

### Floor L&C Annex 401 Church Street Nashville, TN 37243

### TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page LIST OF TABLES ii LIST OF FIGURES iii LIST OF ATTACHMENTS iv LIST OF ACRONYMS v A C K N O W L D E D G E M E N T S vi E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 1 1

. 0 I N T R O D U C T I O N 2 2

. 0 A I R Q U A L I T Y 5 3.0 PERMANENT AND ENFORCEABLE REDUCTIONS 25 4.0 MAINTENANCE DEMONSTRATION AND EMISSION INVENTORY 31 5

. 0 C O N T I N G E N C Y M E A S U R E S 41 6

. 0 C O N C L U S I O N S 44

i

### LIST OF TABLES

Table 2-1: Knoxville MSA Fourth Highest Values by Year Table 2-2: Knoxville MSA Ozone 3-Year Design Values Table 2-3: Knoxville MSA Ozone Design Value Projections for 2010 Table 2-4: Sum m a ry of Knoxville Area Tem p erature, 1999-2009 Table 2-5: Sum m a ry of Knoxville Area W i nd Speed, 1999-2009 Table 2-6: Sum m a ry of Knoxville Area Precipitation, 1999-2009 Table 2-7: 2002-2008 Knoxville Region Ozone Forecasting Results Table 2-8: Ozone Data Capture 2003-2008 (March 1 to October 31) Table 2-9: Relationship of Tem p erature and Ozone Exceedances by Year Table 2-10: Sum m a ry of Em issions and 8-Hour Ozone Concentrations, 1996-2007 Table 2-11: Region 4 Ozone Sum m a ry, Average of All Monitors Table 2-12: Region 4 Ozone Sum m a ry, Individual Monitors Table 3-1: Com p arison of Em ission Budgets for NO X 

### SIP Call and CAIR Ozone Season NO X 

### Trading Program Table 3-2 Bull Run Fossil Plant NO X 

### Em ission Reductions Under the NO X 

### Budget Trading Program and CAIR NO X 

### Ozone Season Trading Program Table 3-3 Kingston Fossil Plant NO X 

### Em ission Reducti ons U nder the N O X 

### Budget Trading Program and CAIR NO X 

### Ozone Season Trading Program Table 3-4 Table 3- 4: N O X 

### Budget Trading Program – Regional Reductions Statewide NO X 

### Reductions from 2000-2008 (Ranked by % Reduction) Table 4-1: Point Source NO X 

### Em issions for a Typical Sum m e r Day Table 4-2: Point Source VOC Em issions for a Typical Sum m e r Day Table 4-3: Top Five NO X 

### Sources in 2007 Table 4-4: Top Five VOC Sources in 2007 Table 4-5: Area Source NO X 

### Em issions Table 4-6: Area Source VOC Em issions Table 4-7: Seasonally Adjusted Sum m e r Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled Table 4-8: O n road N O X 

### Em issions Sum m a ry for the Knoxv ille 8-hour Ozone Nonattainm e nt Area T a b l e 4

- 9 : Onr o a d VOC Em issions Sum m a ry for the Knoxville 8-hour Ozone Nonattainm e nt Area Table 4-10: Em ission Projections for the Knoxville Area Table 4-11: Motor Vehicle Em issions Budgets for NO X 

### and VOC for 2024 Table 4-12: NO X 

### Em issions from Nonroad Sources (excluding Com m e rcial Marine, Locom o tive and Aircraft) Table 4

- 1 3 : VOC Em issions from Nonroa d Sources (excluding Com m e rcial Marine, Locom o tive and Aircraft) Table 4-14: NO X 

### Em issions from Locom o tive, Com m e rcial Marine, and Aircraft Table 4-15: VOC Em issions from Locom o tive, Com m e rcial Marine, and Aircraft

LIST OF FIGURES

ii

### Figure 1-1: Knoxville Area Geologic Regions Figure 2-1: Knoxville, Tennessee Ozone Nonattainm e nt Area Figure 2-2: Knoxville MSA Ozone Trends, 4 th 

### Highest 8-Hour Ozone Concentration by Year Figure 2-3: Knoxville MSA Ozone Design Valu e Trends, Low Elevation Monitoring Sites Figure 2-4: Knoxville MSA Ozone Design Valu e Trends, High Elevation Monitoring Sites Figure 2-5: Trajectory Analyses, 2006/2007-2009 Figure 2-6: Relationship of High Tem p erat ure Days and Ozone NAAQS Exceedances in the Knoxville Region Figure 2-7: Scatter Plot of Tem p erature and Ozone Exceedances, 1999-2009 Figure 2-8: July/August Mean Daily Maxi m u m Tem p erature and Ozone Exceedances, 1999- 2009 Figure 2-9: Com p arison of Tem p erature and Ozone Exceedances with 1999 Baseline Figure 2-10: July/August Precipitation and Ozone Exceedances, 1999-2009 Figure 2-11: July/August W i nd Speed and Ozone Exceedances, 1999-2009 Figure 2-12: Em ission and 8-Hour Ozone Trends, 1996-2005 Figure 2-13: Scatter Plots of Em issions and Ozone Exceedances Figure 2-14: Scatter Plot of NO X 

### Em issions and Ozone Exceedances (1999 Data Om itted) Figure 2-15: National Ozone Trends, 2004 – 2008 Figure 2-16: Seasonal Ozone Concentrations Adjusted for W eather Figure 2-17: 2007 Georgia W ildfires

iii

### LIST OF ATTACHMENTS

ATTACHMENT A: Em ission Inventory

ATTACHMENT B: Public Hearing Notice ATTACHMENT C: Public Com m e nts and Response ATTACHMENT D: Air Pollution Control Board Order

iv

### LIST OF ACRONYMS

Acronym Definition AIRS Aerom e tric Inf o rm ation Retrieval System ALM Aircraft, Locom o tive, and Marine APC Division of Air Pollution Contro l, Tennessee Departm e nt & Conservation AQS Air Quality System CAA Clean Air Act CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule CERR Consolidated Em issions Reporting Rule CFR Code of Federal Regulations CHIEF Clearinghouse for Em ission Inventories and Em ission Factors CMV Com m e rcial Marine Vessel CO Carbon Monoxide DAQM Knoxville Departm e nt of Air Quality Managem e nt DV Design Value DVMT Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled EGAS 5.0 Econom ic Growth Analysis System version 5.0 EPA U.S. Environm ental Protection Agency oF Degrees Fahrenheit FR Federal Register GSMNP Great Sm oky Mountains National Park HC Hydrocarbons HYSPLIT Hybrid Single Particle Lagr angian Integrated Trajectory Model IAC Interagency Consultation lb/MMBtu Pounds per Million British Therm a l Units MLA Marine, Locom o tive and Aircraft MSA Metropolitan Statistical Area MVEB Motor Vehicle Em issions Budget NAAQS National Am bient Air Quality Standard NEI National Em ission Inventory NOAA National Oceanic and Atm o spheric Adm i nistration NO x 

### Nitrogen Oxides
ppm Parts per m illion QA/QC Quality Assure/Quality Controlled RACT Reasonably Available Control Technology REMI Regional Econom ic Model, Inc. SCC Source Classification Code SIP State Im plem entation Plan TDEC Tennessee Departm e nt of Environm ent and Conservation TDOT Tennessee Departm e nt of Transportation tpd tons/day TPO Knoxville Transportation Planning Organization VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Volatile Organic Com pounds

v

### EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Knoxville, Tennessee ozone nonattainm e nt area includes Anderson, Blount, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon and Sevier Counties in their entirety, as well as the portion of Cocke County that f a lls within the boundaries of the Great Sm oky Mountains Na tional Park. Between 1999 and 2003, air quality

m onitoring at several sites within this region indicated that the highest 8-hour average ozone concentrations exceeded the 0.08 parts per m illion National Am bient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS), and EPA designated the area as nonatta inm e nt for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, effective June 15, 2004. More recently, air quality m onitoring data f o r 2007 through 2009 indicates declining ozone concentrations in the Knoxville area, and the design value at the controlling m onitor shows attainm e nt of the NAAQS.

Tennessee is petitioning EPA f o r re designation of the K noxville 8-hour ozone nonattainm e nt area to attainm e nt for the 1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS, based on an attaining three-year design value f o r the period 2007-2009. This petition is subm itted pursuant to §107(d)(3) of the Clean Air Act, which specifies the requirem e nts for redesignation of nonattainm e nt areas.

This petition will show that the Knoxville nonattainm e nt area has attained the N a tional A m bient A i r Quality Standard and that the observed reduction in ozone levels is due to perm anent and enforceable em ission reductions at the Federal, Stat e, and local levels. In addition, an em issions inventory is included, which indicates declining em issions of NO X 

### and VOC between 2007 and 2024. As em issions of these ozone precursors continue to decline, the region is likely to rem a in in attainm e nt of the NAAQS in the future. However, this petition includes contingency m easures that

m a y be put into place, if necessary, to correct NAAQS violations that m a y occur af ter redesignation of the area to attainm e nt.

1

### 1.0 INTRODUCTION

This petition is subm itted to the United States E nvironm ental Protection Agency (EPA) to request redesignation of the Knoxville, Tennessee ozone nonattainm e nt area from nonattainm e nt to attainm e nt for the 8–hour ozone National Am bient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS), pursuant to §107(d)(3) of the Clean Air Act (CAA). The Act specifies the following requirem e nts for redesignation of nonattainm e nt areas:

1. The Adm i nistrator determ ines that the area has attained the national am bient air quality standard;

2. The Admi ni s t r a t o r ha s ful l y a ppr ove d t h e a pp l i c a b l e i m pl e m e n t a t i on pl a n for the area under section 110(k);

3. The Adm i nistrator determ ines that the im prove m e nt in air quality is due to perm anent and enforceable reductions in em issions resulti ng from im plem entation of the applicable im plem entation plan and applicable Federal air pollutant control regulations and other
perm anent and enforceable reductions;

4. The Adm i nistrator has fully approved a m a in tenance plan for the area as m eeting the requirem e nts of section 175A; and

5. The State containing such area has m e t all requirem e nts applicable to the area under section 110 and part D.

Tennessee is petitioning EPA f o r re designation of the K noxville 8-hour ozone nonattainm e nt area to attainm e nt based on an attaining three-year design value for the period 2007-2009. This docum ent dem onstrates that the Knoxville 8-hour ozone nonatta inm e nt area m eets the a bove requirem e nts, and can petition the EPA for redesignation in lieu of an attainm e nt dem onstration. Subm ission of an attainm e nt dem onstration in place of this rede signation request would not necessarily result in additional controls, since am bient air quality data indicates that the area is attaining the NAAQS, and since attainm e nt has been achieved using existing controls (see Section 3.0 for additional inf o rm ation). This petition does not preclude Tenne ssee f r om im plem enting additional controls in the Knoxville area in order to avoid future designati ons resulting f r om f

u ture revisions of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS.

Knoxville Geologic Region

Ridge and Valley

The city of Knoxville is located within the Ridge and Valley region of Tennessee, which is located between the Cum b erland Plateau to the west and the Blue Ridge Mountains to the east (Figure 1-1). The width of the region ranges from 30 to 70 m ile s, with an average width of 45 m iles. The topography of the Ridge and Valley consists of l ong linear ridges and parallel lowland valleys that trend in a northeast to southwest direction. Th e ridges usually have high elevations of 1,100 to

2

### 1,500 feet 1 

### while the adjacent valley floors vary from 700 to 1,000 feet. The ridges and valleys
ge ne r a l l y have high elevations in the northern part of the region, with slightly lower elevations to the south.

Blue Ridge and Great Smoky Mountains

The Blue Ridge and Great Sm oky Mountains 2 

### extend along the Tennessee-North Carolina border and is the easternm o st physiographic province in Te nnessee. T h is region consists of high peaks and heavily forested terrain, broken by deeply carve d stream valleys. The Great Sm oky Mountains includes the highest point in the State at Clingm an ’s Dom e (6,643 ft) in Sevi er County. In addition to Clingm an’s Dom e , there are 13 other m ountain peaks in the Blue Ridge with heights of over 6,000 feet and 33 peaks of m o re than 5,000 feet. A large percentage of those peaks are situated directly on the Tennessee/North Carolina border, with the greatest concentration found in Sevier County. Narrow lowland valleys and isolated c oves, ranging from 1,000 to 2,000 feet in elevation, are also a part of the region’s topography.

Figure 1-1: Knoxville Area Geologic Regions

Climate Synopsis for East Tennessee 3



### Tennessee’s topography is highly varied and has a significant im pact on the state' s clim ate. The landscape varies generally from west to east, star ting with the gently rolling lowlands in the west, and dom inated by the Blue Ridge Mountains in th e east. Average annual tem p eratures across the State range from about 55° F to 60° F, with m ean winter tem p eratures of about 35° F and sum m e r tem p eratures 75° to 80° F. These general pa tterns are affected by topography, and the m ountain areas tend to have m ilder sum m e rs and colder, m o re blustery winters. In the Ridge and Valley

r e gi on of east Tennessee, annual precipitation ranges fr om 40 inches in the north to over 50 inches in

1 All elevations are relative to sea level.

2 The Great Sm oky Mountains are part of the Blue Ridge Mountains, which run from no r t h e r n G e o r g i a t o P e n n s y l v a n i a. “Great Sm oky Mountains” typically refers to the portion of th e Blue Ridge located in Blount, Cocke, and Sevier Counties in Tennessee, and within the adjacent North Carolina counties.

3 Adapted from : Climatography of the United States, No. 60, National Clim atic Center



### 3

### t h e s out h. The Bl ue Ri dge r e gi on i s t h e we t t e s t pa r t of the State, with annual totals of up to 80 inches in the higher elevations. In general, the greates t precipitation occurs in winter and early spring 4



### , with a secondary m a xim u m of precipitation from m i dsum m e r thunderstorm s.

Knoxville MSA Meteorology

The clim ate of the Knoxville MSA is strongly influenced by the surrounding m ountains. July is usually the warm est m onth of the year, and the coldest weather typically occurs during January. Sudden tem p erature changes are infrequent, m a inly due to the retarding effect of the m ountains. The average high tem p erature for the year is 69.3 degr ees, but during the ozone season, the average high

tem p erature rises to 77.8 degrees. Daytim e winds usually have a southwesterly com ponent, while nighttim e winds usually m ove from the northeast. The w i nds are relatively light, averaging 6.9 m ph for the year, and during ozone season, the average wind speed decreases to 6.6 m ph.

Rainfall is favorably distributed during the year. Precipitation is greatest in the winter, with a secondary peak during the late spring and sum m e r m onths. The period of lowest rainfall occurs during the fall. The surrounding m ountains serve as a fixed incline plane, which lifts the warm

, m o ist air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico and increases the frequency of afternoon thunderstorm s. These thunderstorm s reduce the num be r of extrem ely warm days in the valley and provide relief from extrem ely high tem p eratures.

4 The higher rainfall totals in winter and early spring are prim arily due to the m o re frequent passage of large-scale (frontal) storm s

.



### 4

### 2.0 AIR QUALITY

Tropospheric ozone is a secondary pollutant that is form ed in the am bient air by the photochem i cal reaction of nitr oge n oxides (NO x 

### ) and reactive volatile organic com pounds (VOC). This pollutant is associated with a num ber of health and environm en t a l im pacts, including respiratory im pairm e nt and dam a ge to crops and forests. High ozone concentr ations tend to occur in the eastern United States during the hot sum m e r m onths under hot, stagnant conditions. EPA m a ndates seasonal m onitoring of am bient ozone concentrations in Tennessee a nd other States from Ma rch 1 through October 31 (40 CFR 58 Appendix. D).

Because ozone is form ed in the am bient air, c ontrol of ozone focuses upon reduction of precursor

em issions. Nitrogen oxides (NO X 

### ) are form ed from the high-tem p erature reaction of nitrogen and oxygen during com bustion processes, such as electri c utility boilers, industrial f u el-burning sources, and m o tor vehicles. VOC includes m a ny industr ial solvents and coatings, as well as the hydrocarbons (HC) that are em itted by m o tor vehicles as evaporative losses from gasoline, and tailpipe em issions of unburned hydrocarbon. Past e fforts at control of ground-level ozone have focused prim arily upon reduction of VOC em issions at a local level, through control of autom o tive

em issions and industrial solvent/coating reasonably available control technology (RACT). In recent years, control of NO X 

### em issions has increased in im portance, both at the local and regional levels.

The Knoxville Tennessee ozone nonattainm e nt area includes Anderson, Blount, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon and Sevier Counties in their entirety, as well as the portion of Cocke County that f a lls within the boundaries of the Great Sm oky Mountains Nati onal Park (Figure 2-1). Between 1999 and 2003, air quality m onitoring at several sites within this region indicated that the highest 8-hour average ozone concentrations exceeded the 0.085 parts per m illion NAAQS (Table 2-1, Table 2-2). EPA subsequent l y desi gnat e d t h e ar ea as nonat t a i n ment for t h e 8- hourozone NAAQS, effective June 15, 2004 5 

### . The area was designated as a Basic nonattainm e nt area, pursuant to Subpart 1 of the 1990 Clean Air Act Am endm ents. The Subpart 1 designa tion was vacated by the U. S. Court of Appeals for the District of Colum b ia Circuit in 2006 6 

### , and EPA published a proposed rule on January 16, 2009, to designate the area as a Subpart 2 Moderate nonattainm e nt area for ozone 7 

### . More recently, air quality m onitoring data for 2007 through 2009 indicat es declining ozone concentrations in the Knoxville area, and the design value at the controlling m onitor is now 0.082 ppm

.

5 Federal Register Notice published April 30, 2004

6 South Coast Air Quality Management District vs. EPA , Decem ber 22, 2006.

7 Federal Register , January 16, 2009, pp 2936 – 2945.



### 5

### Figure 2-1: Knoxville, Tennessee Oz one Nonattainment Area

Table 2-1: Knoxville MSA Fourth Highest Values by Year

Fourth-Highest Value (ppm ) County Site Nam e Monit o r ID 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ander s on Fr eels Bend Study Ar e a 470010101- 1 0. 0 9 4 0

. 0 9 3 0. 0 8 5 0

. 0 9 9 0. 0 7 8 0

. 0 6 9 0. 0 8 1 0

. 0 8 0 0. 0 8 0 0

. 0 7 3 0

. 0 6 6
L ook Rock, GSM N P 470090101- 1 0. 1 0 6 0

. 0 9 6 0. 0 8 6 0

. 1 0 2 0. 0 9 0 0

. 0 8 2 0. 0 8 6 0

. 0 8 5 0. 0 8 8 0

. 0 8 2 0

. 0 6 8 Blount Cades Cove, GSM N P 470090102- 1 0. 0 8 8 0

. 0 8 1 0. 0 7 5 0

. 0 8 2 0. 0 7 1 0

. 0 6 6 0. 0 6 6 0

. 0 7 1 0. 0 7 4 0

. 0 7 1 0

. 0 6 2

Je ffe r s on 1188 L o st Cr eek
R o a d 470890002- 1 0. 1 0 3 0

. 0 9 5 0. 0 9 1 0

. 0 9 9 0. 0 8 5 0

. 0 7 8 0. 0 8 4 0

. 0 8 3 0. 0 8 5 0

. 0 7 5 0

. 0 6 8 9315 Rutledge P i k e 470930021- 1 0. 0 9 8 0

. 0 9 6 0. 0 8 6 0

. 0 9 5 0. 0 8 5 0

. 0 7 2 0. 0 8 1 0

. 0 7 7 0. 0 8 7 0

. 0 7 9 0

. 0 6 5 Knox 4625 M ildr e d Dr i v e * 470931020- 1 0. 0 9 9 0

. 1 0 0 0. 0 9 0 0

. 0 9 8 0. 0 9 0 0

. 0 7 8 0. 0 8 6 0

. 0 8 6 0. 0 9 2 0

. 0 8 6 0

. 0 6 8
L o u d o n 130 W e bb Dr i v e 47105108- 1 N / A N / A N / A N / A N / A 0. 0 7 7 0. 0 8 5 0

. 0 8 2 0. 0 8 8 0

. 0 7 7 0

. 0 6 7 Cove M ountain, GSM N P 47155101- 1 0. 1 0 1 0

. 0 9 6 0. 0 9 1 0

. 1 0 3 0. 0 8 2 0

. 0 7 4 0. 0 7 9 0

. 0 8 0 0. 088 0. 079 0. 069 Sevier Clingm an’ s Dom e , GSM N P 471550102- 1 0. 1 0 1 0

. 1 0 0 0. 0 9 3 0

. 1 0 1 0. 0 8 4 0

. 0 7 6 0. 0 7 8 0

. 0 8 6 0. 087 0. 08 0. 071
* Contr o lling m onitor

.



### 6

### Table 2-2: Knoxville MSA Oz one 3-Year Design Values

Eight-Hour Design Values (ppm)

County Site Name Monitor ID 2001- 2003 2002- 2004 2003- 2005 2004- 2006 2005- 2007 2006- 2008 2007- 2009

Anderson Freels Bend Study A r e a 4 7 0 0 1 0 1 0 1

- 1 0

. 0 8 7 0

. 0 8 2 0

. 0 7 6 0

. 0 7 6 0

. 0 8 0 0

. 0 7 8 0.073 Look Rock, G S M N P 4 7 0 0 9 0 1 0 1

- 1 0

. 0 9 2 0

. 0 9 1 0

. 0 8 6 0

. 0 8 4 0

. 0 8 6 0

. 0 8 5 0.079 Blount Cades Cove, G S M N P 4 7 0 0 9 0 1 0 2

- 1 0

. 0 7 6 0

. 0 7 3 0

. 0 6 7 0

. 0 6 7 0

. 0 7 0 0

. 0 7 2 0.069

Jefferson 1188 Lost Creek R o a d 4 7 0 8 9 0 0 0 2

- 1 0

. 0 9 1 0

. 0 8 7 0

. 0 8 2 0

. 0 8 1 0

. 0 8 4 0

. 0 8 1 0.076 9315 Rutledge P i k e 4 7 0 9 3 0 0 2 1

- 1 0

. 0 8 8 0

. 0 8 4 0

. 0 7 9 0

. 0 7 6 0

. 0 8 2 0

. 0 8 1 0.077 Knox 4625 Mildred D r i v e 4 7 0 9 3 1 0 2 0

- 1 0

. 0 9 2 0

. 0 8 8 0

. 0 8 4 0

. 0 8 3 0

. 0 8 8 0

. 0 8 8 0.082

Loudon 130 W e bb D r i v e 4 7 1 0 5 1 0 8

- 1 N / A N / A N / A 0

. 0 8 1 0

. 0 8 5 0

. 0 8 2 0.077 Cove Mountain, G S M N P 4 7 1 5 5 1 0 1

- 1 0

. 0 9 2 0

. 0 8 6 0

. 0 7 8 0

. 0 7 7 0

. 0 8 2 0

. 0 8 2 0.079 Sevier Clingm an’s Dom e , G S M N P 4 7 1 5 5 0 1 0 2

- 1 0

. 0 9 2 0

. 0 8 7 0

. 0 7 9 0

. 0 8 0 0

. 0 8 3 0.084 0.079



### In accordance with CAA §110 (k), Tennessee’s request to am end the State Im plem entation Plan is based on the m o st recent three years of data, wh ich show no additional violations of the ozone NAAQS for the 2007, 2008, and 2009 ozone seasons. Data collected from the m onitoring networks 8


### were extracted from the EPA AIRS-AQS database and used to perform an evaluation into the possible future ozone trend for this area. The fourth highest 8-hour ozone concentrations were plotted for each successive year from 2001 through 2006, grouping the air quality m onitoring stations into high elevation (m ore than 2,500 feet a bove sea level) and low el evation sites (F igure 2- 2). The 8-hour ozone design values (DVs) were al so plotted (Figure 2-3, Figure 2-4) to observe trends of individual m onitoring sites. Figur e 2-2 indicates that, between 1999 and 2009, ozone concentrations declined noticeably at both high a nd low elevations. More im portantly, the data indicates that the 8-hour ozone design values (2007 – 2009) are attaining the NAAQS at all

m onitored locations. W h ile ozone concentrations m a y be affected by a variet y of factors, the m o st likely explanation f o r this decline is the reduction in local and regional NO X 

### em issions that have occurred since 2004 (see Section 3.0 for additional discussion of em ission reductions).

8 The following air quality m onitors are operated in the Knoxville nonattainm e nt area: a) m onitors located in Knox county are operated by the local air pollution control program ; b) m onitors in Blount and Se vier counties are operated by the National Park Service; and c) m onitors located in Anderson, Jefferson, and Loudon counties are operated by TDEC.



### 7

### Figure 2-2: Knoxville MSA Oz one Trends 4 th 

### Highest 8-Hour Oz one Concentration by Year

0

. 060 0

. 065 0

. 070 0

. 075 0

. 080 0

. 085 0

. 090 0

. 095 0

. 100 0

. 105

19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 2 0 0 6 * 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 94th HighestValue(ppm)

H i g h Elev atio n S ites Lo w Elev ati o n S ites NAA QS T V

A B u l l Ru n S CR

on l i n e

T V

A K i n g st o n U n i t s 1

- 8 S CRs o n l i n e L i b e r t y F i be r s s h ut do w n

TV A K i n g s t o n U n it 9 SC R o n l i n e



### 8

### Figure 2-3: Knoxville MSA Oz one Design Value Trends Low Elevation Monitoring Sites

0. 06 0. 0 6 5 0. 07 0. 0 7 5 0. 08 0. 0 8 5 0. 09 0. 0 9 5

200 1- 200 3 2 0 0 2

- 20 04 2 003

- 2 005 2 004

- 2 006 20 05- 20 07 2 006

- 2 008 200 7- 200 98-hourDesignValue(ppm)

M i ldr e d Dr iv e Lo s t C r ee k R o ad R u t l ed ge P i k e F r eel s B e nd C a d e s C o ve



### 9

### Figure 2-4: Knoxville MSA Oz one Design Value Trends High Elevation Monitoring Sites

0. 06 0. 06 5

0. 07 0. 07 5

0. 08 0. 08 5

0. 09 0. 09 5

20 01-20 03 2 002

- 2 004 200 3-200 5 2 0 04-200 6 200 5-200 7 2 0 0 6

- 20 08 2 0 0 7

- 2 00 98-hourDesignValue(ppm)

Lo ok R o c k Co v e M o un t a i n Clin gm an ’s Do m e



### Ozone form ation is influenced by a variety of factors, including m e teorology and precursor

em issions. Although the longer-range trend indicat es declining ozone concentrations, som e fluctuation m a y be observed from year to year at different m onitoring sites.

To assess the allowable extent of year-to-year variation at each m onitoring site, a hypothetical fourth-highest 8-hour ozone concentration was calculated for each m onitor for 2010, to determ ine the ozone concentrations that would result in a NAAQS violation (Table 2-3). At the controlling low-elevation m onitor (Mildred Drive), the NAAQS w ould be exceeded in 2010 if the f ourth highest 8-hour ozone concentration was at least 0.101 ppm

. A slightly higher value of 0.104 ppm would be required to result in a NAAQS violation at the controlling high elevation m onitor (Clingm an’s Dom e ).

10

### Table 2-3: Knoxville MSA Oz one Design Value Projections for 2010

County Site Name Monitor ID 2008 4 th
Max. 2009 4 th
Max. 2010 4 th Max Needed for 8-hr

DV Violation
Anders o n F r e e l s Bend Study A r e a 470010101-1 0. 073 0

. 0 6 6 0

. 1 1 7 Look Rock, GSMNP 470090101-1 0.082 0.068 0.104
Blount Cades Cove, GSMNP 470090102-1 0.071 0

. 0 6 2 0

. 1 2 2
Jefferson 1188 Lost Creek Road 470890002-1 0.075 0

. 0 6 8 0

. 1 1 2 9315 Rutledge Pike 470930021-1 0.079 0

. 0 6 5 0

. 1 1 0
Knox 4625 Mildred Drive 470931020-1 0.086 0

. 0 6 8 0

. 1 0 1
Loudon 130 W e bb Drive 47105108-1 0.077 0

. 0 6 7 0

. 1 1 1
Cove Mountain, GSMNP 47155101-1 0.079 0.069 0.106

Sevier Clingm an’s Dom e , GSMNP 471550102-1 0.08 0.071 0.104 High-elevation m onitoring site



### Prevalence of Oz one in the Knoxville Region

Trajectory Analysis

The overall wind patterns for a num ber of high ozone days in the Knoxville region, including the periods from 2006-2009 (highest days) and 2007-2009 (d ays w ith m o re than one exceedance), w e re evaluated using NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory analysis. Th e results of this analysis indicate that a lim ited num ber of exceedances were observed on days with significant local recirculation. This analysis also suggests that ozone transport into the Knoxville regio n w a s a s i g n i f i can t co n t rib u t o r to ozone levels on a num ber of high ozone days, w ith the potential to im pact both low and high elevation m onitoring sites. The com posite data is presented in Figure 2-5:

11

### Figure 2-5: Trajectory Analyses, 2006/2007-2009

1,500 Meter Analysis

2,500 Meter Analysis 2006 to 2009 Highest Days 2007 to 2009 Days with More Than 1 Exceedance

2006 to 2009 Highest Days 2007 to 2009 Days with More Than 1 Exceedance



### 12

### 13 Influences of Meteorology on Ozone Formation

Meteorological data for the Knoxville area are summarized in Tables 2-4, 2-5, and 2-6. The influence of these parameters on ambient ozone c oncentrations will be discussed on following pages.

Ozone Forecasting Activities in the Knoxville Region

The Division of Air Pollution C ontrol (APC) began forecasting for ozone in 2004, with forecasts issued for the Knoxville area and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP). Current forecasts are based on a mathematical forecast mode l that incorporates current and historic ozone measurements with meteorology. The forecast is also dependent upon the intuition and skill of the forecast meteorologist.

The results of APC’s forecasting e fforts are summarized in Table 2-7. The low percentage of missed action days indicates that the program has been very effective. During the summer ozone season, these forecasts can assist in reduction of precursor emissions in the Knoxville region.

Data Capture for the Knoxville Region Ozone Monitoring Sites

The ozone monitoring sites in the Knoxville region e xhibited excellent data capture rates during the 2003 through 2008 monitoring period, with an overall av erage data capture of 93.8% (Table 2-8). This includes the three monitoring sites located at high elevations in the GSMNP. Typically, Clingman’s Dome has lower data cap ture rates, because it is started up two months later in the ozone monitoring season (the Clingman’s Dome site is inaccessible during March and April).

Data Validation and Quality Assurance

All data used in this evaluation have been processed and validated by the respective reporting agencies responsible for the final data valid ation. Data for the years 2003 through 2006 were extracted from the certified data in the AIRS AQS subsystem. Data accuracy and precision results are also available from AIRS AQS, however, these data are not included in this summary.Table 2-4: Summary of Knoxville Area Temperature, 1999-2009MeanDailyMaximum Temperature (°F)YearMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberSeasonAverageJuly-AugustAverage199955.671.578.085.387.288.883.370.877.688.0200064.766.280.084.286.786.580.773.977.986.6200155.572.478.983.086.986.378.069.976.486.6200261.873.976.487.788.089.884.870.279.188.9200364.470.876.481.684.986.979.569.576.885.9200464.269.781.782.885.982.979.672.777.484.4200559.569.975.584.586.988.786.572.478.087.8200661.775.076.086.690.189.877.667.378.090.0200769.167.482.588.587.194.786.477.081.690.9200860.669.777.287.688.587.683.270.978.288.1200961.270.177.185.883.485.579.467.476.284.5Table 2-5: Summary of Knoxville Area Wind Speed, 1999-2009Mean Wind Speed (mph)YearMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberSeasonAverageJuly-AugustAverage19997.48.75.76.35.05.64.74.46.05.320006.87.77.45.45.05.15.53.45.85.120017.77.26.55.65.95.44.85.66.15.720028.27.46.95.95.35.05.24.76.15.220036.57.27.56.06.34.34.64.35.85.320047.87.06.65.15.55.25.55.66.05.420058.67.25.34.85.94.74.44.95.75.320068.77.67.05.75.84.75.25.66.35.320076.97.24.55.15.84.33.84.45.35.120087.96.17.35.75.04.04.44.55.64.520097.47.16.45.05.64.44.05.05.65.014Table 2-6: Summary of Knoxville Area Precipitation, 1999-2009Precipitation (inches)YearMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberSeasonTotalJuly-AugustTotal19994.93.44.95.612.70.90.82.836.013.620004.46.75.93.46.11.43.80.131.87.520012.62.83.53.94.13.73.60.925.17.8200210.61.44.73.95.71.45.25.638.57.120032.16.08.12.58.35.55.11.238.813.820044.62.75.47.97.62.24.83.138.39.820053.54.83.23.15.03.81.71.126.18.820063.27.62.12.43.96.46.24.135.910.320072.65.11.51.34.74.11.51.222.08.820084.33.73.42.27.01.93.21.727.48.920093.52.98.14.97.06.24.64.341.513.215Table 2-7: 2002-2008 Knoxville Region Ozone Forecasting Results2002200320042005OverallKnoxvilleGreat SmokyMountainsKnoxvilleGreat SmokyMountainsKnoxvilleGreat SmokyMountainsKnoxvilleGreat SmokyMountainsForecastAccuracy/Color CodeAccuracy66%69%73%65%74%68%74%73%ForecastAccuracy/Action/NoAction83%82%95%93%99%99%94%96%FalseAlarmRate46%27%60%71%100%33%70%67%MissedActionDays1%9%3%4%1%1%3%2%200620072008OverallKnoxvilleGreat SmokyMountainsKnoxvilleGreat SmokyMountainsKnoxvilleGreat SmokyMountainsForecastAccuracy/Color CodeAccuracy73%73%77%80%78%79%ForecastAccuracy/Action/NoAction94%93%93%92%94%93%False AlarmRate69%80%53%63%56%53%Missed Action Days1%2%2%3%1%1%1617Table 2-8: Ozone Data Capture 2003-2008 (March 1 to October 31)CountySite NameMonitor IDAvg. Valid DaysReportedAvg. % DataReportedAndersonFreels Bend Study Area470010101-124096.7Look Rock, GSMNP470090101-124198.5BlountCades Cove, GSMNP470090102-122690.7Jefferson1188 Lost Creek Road470890002-124198.29315 Rutledge Pike470930021-123997.5Knox4625 Mildred Drive470931020-123394.8Loudon**130 Webb Drive/Roberts Rd.471050108/0109 - 124298.7Cove Mountain, GSMNP47155101-123897.2Sevier*Clingman’s Dome, GSMNP471550102-118072.3Overall23193.8* Monitoring site operated on shorter ozone schedule due to weather extremes.**2004 to 2008 data.

### Effect of Temperature

For any given day, am bient tem p erature is a key m e teorological factor in ozone form ation, and the

tem p erature/ozone concentration relationship is a us eful m e tric for assessing the effect of em ission reductions on air quality. In Tennessee, m o st ex ceedances of the 8-hour ozone standard have occurred when the m a xim u m daily tem p erature is 89  ̊ F or greater (Figure 2-6).

Figure 2-6: Relationship of High Temperature Days and Oz one NAAQS Exceedances in the Knoxville Region

y p

0 5 10 15 20 25 30707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100

D a i l y M a x T e m p e r a t u r e ( D e g F )NumberofExceedancesatIndicatedTemperature



### Table 2-9 shows the num ber of days above 89° F and the num ber of exceedances m easured during each ozone season from 1999 to 2009. For each day over 89  ̊ F, t h e aver age num ber of exceedances declined from 1.25 in 1999 to 0.22 in 2006, increased s lightly in 2007, and declined to new lows of 0.09 and 0.00, respectively, in 2008 and 2009. These data are shown as a scatter plot in Figure 2-7, and a correlation coefficient is calculated to assess the relationship between the variables 9 

### . Sim ilar correlations are observed when the num ber of ozone exceedances is plotted against the averag e d a ily

m a xim u m tem p erature (Figure 2-8). Alt hough fewer exceedances are observed during cool

sum m e rs, the data indicate that the num ber of m onitored exceedances rem a ined low in 2006 and 2008, despite the relatively hot weather (this trend is plotted relative to a baseline year 1999 in

9 The scatter plots used in this section plot the num be r of ozone exceedances for a given year against various independent variables (em i ssions, tem p erature, precipita tion, and wind speed), and a correlation coefficient (R 2 ) is calculated to estim ate the degree of linearity between the two variables. A correlation coefficient of 1.0 indicates a perfect linear relationship between the independent and de pendent variables, and a correlation coefficient of zero indicates that there is no linear relationship. For all scatte r plots shown in this docu m en t
, a higher correlation coefficient i n d i c a t e s t h a t a m b i e n t o z o n e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s a r e m o re s t rongly affected by a given independent variable. However, since

am bient ozone concentrations are affected by all of thes e variables (em i ssions, tem p erature, precipitation, and wind speed), we would not expect to observe a perfect linear re lationship of am bient ozone with any single variable. The

c o rre la tions s hown on the s e plots m a y also be decreased because for a given year, the total num ber of ozone exceedances is shown, rather than the num ber of exceedances for specific m onths.



### 18

### Figure 2-9). The data dem onstrate that declining ozone concentrations are attributable to real

em ission reductions, rather than year-to-year te m p erature variations, in the Knoxville region and across the State of Tennessee.

Table 2-9: Relationship of Temperature and Oz one Exceedances by Year

Year Number of Days Above 89° F Number of NAAQS Exceedances Average Exceedances/Day 1 9 9 9 5 1 6 4 1

. 2 5 2 0 0 0 4 7 3 6 0

. 7 7 2 0 0 1 4 9 1 9 0

. 3 9 2 0 0 2 7 7 4 7 0

. 6 1 2 0 0 3 3 2 1 4 0

. 4 4 2 0 0 4 2 5 3 0

. 1 2 2 0 0 5 6 1 1 8 0

. 3 0 2 0 0 6 6 5 1 4 0

. 2 2 2 0 0 7 8 1 2 9 0

. 3 6 2 0 0 8 6 6 6 0

. 0 9 2 0 0 9 2 4 0 0

. 0 0

Figure 2-7: Scatter Plot of Temperature and Oz one Exceedances, 1999-2009

19

### Figure 2-8: July/August Mean Daily Maximum Temperature and Oz one Exceedances, 1999-2009

20

### Figure 2-9: Comparison of Temperature and Oz one Exceedances w i th 1999 Baseline

- 110

. 0 % - 9 0. 0% - 7 0. 0% - 5 0. 0% - 3 0. 0% - 1 0. 0% 10. 0 % 30. 0 % 50. 0 % 70. 0 %

1 999 20 00 20 01 200 2 2 003 2 004 20 05 200 6 2 00 7 2 008 20 09% Change fromBaselineYear(1999)

D a ys A bove 89 D e g. F A v g

. E x cee d a n ces/ D ay B a s e l i ne ( 1 999)



### Effect of Precipitation and Wind Movement

Elevated ozone concentrations in the Knoxville ar ea are affected by precip itation, es p e cially d u r in g the m onths of July and August. Scatter plots com p aring ozone exceedances with precipitation (Figure 2-10) indicate that elevated ozone concen trations are m o re likely to be observed during periods of low precipitation. A plot of wind speed against exceedances (Figure 2-11) indicates conflicting trends for July and August, in which hi gher July wind speeds are associated with fewer exceedances, while August wind speeds are correlated with a higher num ber of exceedances.

21

### Figure 2-10: July/August Precipitation 10 

### and Oz one Exceedances, 1999-2009

10 July 1999 precipitation data was om itted from this chart due to an unusually large rain event.



### 22

### Figure 2-11: July/August Wind Speed and Oz one Exceedances, 1999-2009

NO X 

### and VOC Emission Trends 1996-2007

Figure 2-9 illustrates the overall downward trend in ozone exceedances. This downward trend is
pr i m a r i l y due t o de c r e a s ed em issions of nitr ogen oxides and volatile organic com pounds throughout the region. These em ission trends are shown for the period 1996-2007 in Table 2-10 and Figure 2- 12. In general, these data indicate declining NO X 

### and VOC em issions during this period. The exception to this trend is the year 2002, during which NO X 

### em issions increased by over 12,000 tons/year.

This anom aly is explained by Tennessee’s ef f

o rts to im prove the quality of the State’s em ission

23

### inventory as part of the Early Ac t i on Compact (EAC) process. As a result of this work, the em ission inventory for 2002 was m o re com p lete and accurate th an had been available for previous years. Im provem e nts in the quality of em issio n s d a ta w e r e o b s e r v e d in a ll s e c t o r s o f th e in v e n t o r y , w ith th e

m o st significant im provem e nts observed in the Mob ile sector. The im provem e nts to the em ission inventory allowed Tennessee to provide m o re accurate MOBILE Model inputs (e.g., vehicle distribution profiles) to the regional m odeling effort.

A detailed exam ination of the em ission inventories for 1999 and 2002 indicates that essentially all of

t h e em issions increase over this period can be attributed to the Mobile sector. However, the reported “increase” should be considered a one-tim e correction, which resulted from a m o re accurate characterization of em issions. The em i ssion inventory for 2005 indicates that NO X 

### em issions are continuing to trend downward. It is expected that this trend will continue in subsequent em ission inventory cycles.

Table 2-10 and Figure 2-12 also show the trends in eight-hour ozone concentrations across the Knoxville region. The data show that peak and av erage ozone concentrations have declined since 1999, with greater decreases between 2002 and 2005. This trend did not hol d f o r 2007, as discussed on following pages.

Table 2-10: Summary of Emissions and 8-Hour Oz one Concentrations, 1996-2007

Year NO X 

### Emissions (tons/year) A 

### VOC Emissions (tons/year) A 

### 4th Highest 8-hr Max, Highest Observed for

Any Single Monitor (ppm) B 

### 4th Highest 8-hr Max, Average of all Monitors (ppm) B



### 1 9 9 6 6 4

, 5 0 0 5 9

, 2 8 7 0

. 0 9 8 0

. 0 8 8 1 9 9 9 6 1

, 0 9 4 5 8

, 6 2 3 0

. 1 0 6 0

. 0 9 9 2 0 0 2 7 3

, 2 2 2 5 5

, 1 1 0 0

. 1 0 3 0

. 0 9 7 2 0 0 5 5 5

, 9 8 1 5 0

, 1 5 4 0

. 0 8 6 0

. 0 8 2 0 0 7 4 9

, 3 8 2 4 1

, 0 1 8 0

. 0 9 2 0

. 0 8 5

No tes to Ta ble 2

- 7 :

Data Sour ces: 1996 & 1999 - E P A's Air D ata W e bsite; 2002 - E P A Final 2002 NE I ; 2005 - T N and Knox County 2005 E m i s s i o n I n v e n t o r y ; 2007 –
T N and Knox County 2007 E m ission I nventor y

A. NO X and VOC em issions indicated above are the total em issions in tons per y ear for all counties in the Knoxville ozone nonattainm e nt area (Knoxville a nd surrounding counties). NO X and VOC em issions include point, ar ea, onr oad m obile, and

nonr oad m obile sour ce categor ies.

B. Monitoring data includes all m onitors in the Knoxville oz one nonattainm e nt area (Knoxville and surrounding counties).



### 24

### Figure 2-12: Emission and 8-Hour Oz one Trends, 1996-2007

W h en VOC and NO X 

### em issions from Table 2-7 are plotted against the num ber of ozone exceedances in corresponding years, a strong correlation is obs erved for both pollutants (Figure 2-13). Although

am bient ozone appears to be m o re strongly correlated with VOC than NO X 

### in these graphs, the difference appears to result from the one-tim e correction in NO X 

### em issions for 2002. W h en 1999 data are om itted (Figure 2-14) am bient ozone con centrations are m o re strongly correlated w ith N O X



### em issions than any other variable.

Summary: Influence of Meteorology and Emissions

Based on the available data and the scatter pl ots presented in this section, am bient ozone concentrations in the Knoxville area are m o st strongly affected by NO X 

### and VOC em issions, with

tem p erature, precipitation, and wind speed playing an im portant secondary role.

25

### Figure 2-13: Scatter Plots of Emissions and Oz one Exceedances

26

### Figure 2-14: Scatter Plot of NO X 

### Emissions and Oz one Exceedances (1999 Data Omitted)

2007 Oz one Season

As indicated above, the trend of declining ozone concentrations did not hold true for the Knoxville

a r ea during the 2007 ozone season. Ozone concentrations increased during 2007 both at the national level (Figure 2-15) and f o r m u ltiple States in the southeast. Substantial increases 11 

### in m onitored ozone levels, m easured as the average value fo r all m onitors, were noted in Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabam a (Table 2-11). In two additional States, Florida and South Carolina, year-to-year increases in ozone concentr ations of at least 10% were observed at one or

m o re m onitors between 2006 and 2007 (Table 2-12). Higher ozone concentra tions in 2007 resulted in part from unusually hot, dry weather across the region (Figure 2-16) 12 

### , and the wildf i res that occurred across southern Georgia and northern Fl orida between May and June (Figure 2-13) m a y have contributed to higher ozone concentrations across the region.

11 Measured as the year-to-year change from 2006 to 2007.

12 EPA u s e s a s t a t i s t i c a l m o d e l t o a ccount for the weather-rela ted variability of seasonal ozone concentrations to provide

a m o re accurate assessm ent of the underlying trend in the pr ecursor em issions that cause ozone. Figure 2-14 shows 8- hour ozone concentrations for the 1997-2008 ozone seasons, incl uding the trend in observed values at m onitoring sites, and the underlying ozone trend after rem oving the effects of weather. The adjusted trend represents ozone levels anticipated under typical weather conditions and serves as a m o re accurate ozone trend for assessing changes in

em issions. Adapted from U. S. EPA, “ Trends in Ozone Adjusted for Weather Conditions ” ( http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/weather.htm l ).



### 27

### Figure 2-15: National Oz one Trends, 2004 – 2008

Table 2-11: Region 4 Oz one Summary, Average of All Monitors

4th Max, Average of All Monitors % Change
State 2006 2007 2008 2006-2007 2006-2008

Alabam a 0

. 0 7 9 0

. 0 8 2 0

. 0 7 2 3

. 8 % -12.2%

F l o r i d a 0

. 0 7 5 0

. 0 7 2 0

. 0 7 0 -4.0% -2.78%
G e o r g i a 0

. 0 8 4 0

. 0 8 4 0

. 0 7 6 0

. 0 %

- 9

. 5 %
K e n t u c k y 0

. 0 7 2 0

. 0 8 0 0

. 0 7 0 1 1

. 1 %

- 1 2

. 5 %
M i s s i s s i p p i 0

. 0 8 0 0

. 0 7 6 0

. 0 7 0

- 5

. 0 %

- 7

. 9 %
North C a r o l i n a 0

. 0 7 6 0

. 0 8 1 0

. 0 7 7 6

. 6 %

- 4

. 9 %
South Carolina 0.075 0.075 0.075 0.0% 0.0%
T e n n e s s e e 0

. 0 8 1 0

. 0 8 4 0

. 0 7 5 3

. 7 %

- 1 0

. 7 %



### 28

### Table 2-12: Region 4 Oz one Summary, Individual Monitors

4th Max, Highest Monitored Value for any Single Monitor (see Note) Highest Year-to-Year Change for any Single

Monitor (see Note)

State 2006 2007 2008 2006-2007 2006-2008
Alabam a 0

. 0 8 9 0

. 0 9 5 0

. 0 8 2 1 1

. 1 % 1

. 3 %
F l o r i d a 0

. 0 8 3 0

. 0 8 3 0

. 0 8 2 1 8

. 6 % 5

. 6 %
G e o r g i a 0

. 0 9 9 0

. 1 0 2 0

. 0 8 9 9

. 6 % 2

. 7 %
K e n t u c k y 0

. 0 8 3 0

. 0 8 9 0

. 0 7 7 2 5

. 4 % 1 2

. 7 %
M i s s i s s i p p i 0

. 0 8 7 0

. 0 8 4 0

. 0 7 8

- 2

. 5 %

- 7

. 1 %
North Carolina 0.093 0.096 0.093 13.4% 14.9%
South Carolina 0.085 0.084 0.085 16.9% 10.8%
T e n n e s s e e 0

. 0 8 8 0

. 0 9 2 0

. 0 8 6 2 0

. 3 % 2

. 6 %

Note : The highest m onitored value m a y occur at different ozone m on itors within the m u lti-year period. The highest year-to-year c h ange f o r a single m onitor does not necessarily occur at the lo cation with the highest- m onitor e d ozone concentr ation.



### Figure 2-16: Seasonal Oz one Concentrations Adjusted for Weather

29

### Figure 2-17: 2007 Georgia Wildfires

Photo of sm oke Shaded graphic of plum e

30

### 3.0 PERMANENT AND ENFORCEABLE REDUCTIONS

Measured reductions in the ozone National Am bient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in the Knoxville MSA are largely attributable to perm anent and enforceable reductions from em ission sources. These reductions, reflected in part by the em issions inventories, are attributable to both federal and state m easures. The significant perm anent and enforceable m easures im plem ented around the region will continue to lower em issions levels in the region. Additionally, new em issions control program s f o r f u els and m o tor vehicles will he lp to ensure a continued decrease in em issions throughout the region.

Federal Measures

NO X 

### Budget Trading Program and Clean Air Interstate Rule

Em issions reductions from the Tennessee Valley Au thority’s Bull Run and Kingston Fossil Plants, located in Anderson and Roane Counties, respectivel y, have contributed to the region’s reduction in

em issions and signif i cant im provem e nt in air quality 13 

### . The em issions reductions at these f acilities result from Tennessee’s im plem entation of the em issions budgets specified in the NO X 

### Budget Trading Program , beginning with the 2004 ozone season, and ending with the 2008 ozone season, when the NO X 

### Budget Trading Program was superseded by the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).

EPA’s Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) 14

, 15 

### updated and expanded the NO X 

### Budget Trading Program , and requires additional NO X 

### reductions in 2009 and beyond. CAIR NO X 

### ozone season budgets are shown in Table 3-1 16 

### . Under CAIR, the NO X 

### em ission budgets of these States were reduced by an average of 13.9% in 2009. The additional NO X 

### reductions required by CAIR are expected to aid in the m a intenance of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the Knoxville MSA, and m a y result in additional reductions in ozone concentrations.

13 It is likely that ozone concentrations in the Knoxville MSA are affected by m u ltiple electricity generating units in Tennessee and the surrounding States. However, TVA’s Bull R un and Kingston facilities are locat e d i n cl o s e p r o x i m i t y to Knoxville, and it is expected that em issions reductions from these two facilities would have the m o st im m e diate and noticeable effects on ozone concentrations in the area around Knoxville.

14 CAIR was rem a nded to EPA for further rulem a king by the U. S

. Court of Appeals for the District of Colum b ia Circuit on Decem ber 23, 2008, and EPA is currently working to prom ulgate a CAIR replacem ent rule. Tennessee expects the replacem ent rule to be at least as stringent as CAIR, and does not expand the rem a nd and replacem ent of CAIR to substantially alter the analysis presented here.

15 Due to the rem a nd of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) NO X Ozone Season Trading Program and other CAIR rules, there have been questions regarding whether or not CAIR constitutes a “perm a nent and enforceable” m easure for ozone attainm e nt. Tennessee notes that, while CAIR will u ltim ately be replaced by a new Federal transport rule, the NO X reductions established under the NO X SIP C a ll re m a in in e ffe c t a nd a r e “pe r m a ne nt and enforceable”, regardless of whether the NO X Budget Trading Program , CAIR, or other applicable re quirem e nts are used to attain those reductions.

16 For clarity, Table 3- 4 shows the sam e States that we re designated in 1998 (Federal Register, Vol. 63, No. 207, October 27, 1998, p 57395, Table II-6) as contributing significantly to ozone nonattainm ent in T e nnessee. Following the im plem entation of the NO X Budget Trading Program , som e of these States m a y no longer contribute significantly to ozone nonattainm e nt in Tennessee.



### 31

### Table 3-1: Comparison of Emission Budgets for NO X 

### SIP Call and CAIR Oz one Season NO X 

### Trading Program

State 2005 NO X Budget – NO X Budget Trading Program (tons) CAIR Ozone Season NO X Budget for 2009- 2014 (tons) 2009 CAIR Budget, % Reduction from 2005 NO X

Budget CAIR Ozone Season NO X Budget for 2015

and Beyond (tons) 2015 CAIR Budget, % Reduction from 2005 NO X

Budget
Alabam a 2 5

, 4 9 7 3 2

, 1 8 2

- 2 6

. 2 % 2 6

, 8 1 8

- 5

. 2 %

D e l a w a r e 5

, 2 2 7 2

, 2 2 6 5 7

. 4 % 1

, 8 5 5 6 4

. 5 %

District of Colum b ia 233 112 51.9% 94 59.7%

I l l i n o i s 3 5

, 5 5 7 3 0

, 7 0 1 1 3

. 7 % 2 8

, 9 8 1 1 8

. 5 %

I n d i a n a 5 5

, 7 2 9 4 5

, 9 5 2 1 7

. 5 % 3 9

, 2 7 3 2 9

. 5 %

K e n t u c k y 3 6

, 2 2 4 3 6

, 0 4 5 0

. 5 % 3 0

, 5 8 7 1 5

. 6 %

M a r y l a n d 1 5

, 4 6 6 1 2

, 8 3 4 1 7

. 0 % 1 0

, 6 9 5 3 0

. 8 %

M i c h i g a n 3 1

, 2 4 7 2 8

, 9 7 1 7

. 3 % 2 4

, 1 4 2 2 2

. 7 %

North Carolina 41,547 28,392 31.7% 23,660 43.1%

O h i o 4 9

, 4 9 9 4 5

, 6 6 4 7

. 7 % 3 9

, 9 4 5 1 9

. 3 %

P e n n s y l v a n i a 5 0

, 8 4 3 4 2

, 1 7 1 1 7

. 1 % 3 5

, 1 4 3 3 0

. 9 %

South Carolina 19,678 15,249 22.5% 12,707 35.4%

T e n n e s s e e 3 1

, 3 3 3 2 2

, 8 4 2 2 7

. 1 % 1 9

, 0 3 5 3 9

. 2 %

V i r g i n i a 2 1

, 1 9 5 1 5

, 9 9 4 2 4

. 5 % 1 3

, 3 2 8 3 7

. 1 %

W e st Virginia 29,043 26,859 7.5% 26,525 8.7%

T o t a l s 4 4 8 , 3 1 8 3 8 6 , 1 9 4 N / A 3 3 2 , 7 8 8 N / A

Reduction from 2005 NO X SIP Call to 2009 CAIR: 13.9%

Reduction from 2005 NO X SIP Call to 2015 CAIR: 25.8%
Data source for CAIR budgets: Federal Register, Vol. 70, No. 91, May 12, 2005, pp 25162-25405. See table V-4, page 25233.



### TVA’s Bull Run Fossil Plant is a single-generato r coal-fired power plant located in Anderson County near Oak Ridge. TVA’s Kingston Fossil Plant consists of nine coal-fired boilers and is located on W a tts Bar Reservoir in Roane County. TVA began operating selective catalytic reduction (SCR) control units in 2004 at Bull Run and at ei ght of nine boilers at Kingston. TVA began operation of an SCR at Kingston’s Unit 9 in 2006.

Table 3-2 and Table 3-3 show the NO X 

### em issions at Bull Run and Kingston fossil plants, as determ ined by m onitoring data subm itted to EPA f o r NO X 

### Budget Trading Program com p liance. As these tables indicate, em issions have declined significantly for both facilities. Between 2003 and 2008 17 

### , em issions at Bull Run declined from 7,416 t ons to 1,087 tons (85% reduction). Sim ilar

17 Final 2009 em is s i ons data from EPA’s Clean Air M a rkets Divi s i on (CAM D) were not availa ble as of Ap ril 20, 2010. The prelim inary 2009 data were not included because substan tial changes in prelim inary and final num bers have been noted in previous years.



### 32

### reductions were observed at the Kingston Fossil Pl a n t
, whe r e em issions declined by 90% during the

sam e period. The average NO X 

### em ission rate at each facility (pounds of NO X 

### em itted per m illion Btu of heat input) also declined, indicating that the em issions reduction generally did not result f r om reduced heat input at either source. The NO X 

### em issions reductions at the Bull Run and Kingston Fossil Plants will contribute to decreased ozone pollution throughout the region, and continued

m a intenance of the 8-hour ozone standard in the Knoxville MSA.

Table 3-2: Bull Run Fossil Plant NO X 

### Emission Reductions Under the NO X 

### Budget Trading Program and CAIR NO X 

### Oz one Season Trading Program

Oz one Season Heat Input (MMBtu) NO X 

### Emissions (tons) Avg. NO X 

### Emission Rate (lb/MMBtu)
2 0 0 3 2 5

, 8 7 4

, 6 2 7 7

, 4 1 6 0

. 5 7
2 0 0 4 2 3

, 4 8 1

, 6 2 7 1

, 4 6 2 0

. 1 2
2 0 0 5 2 9

, 7 7 3

, 9 8 1 9 2 7 0

. 0 6
2 0 0 6 2 1

, 7 3 7

, 4 1 6 6 8 6 0

. 0 6
2 0 0 7 2 9

, 4 9 7

, 5 9 9 1

, 0 0 8 0

. 0 7
2 0 0 8 2 3

, 7 7 9

, 2 7 9 1

, 0 8 7 0

. 0 9 Data Source: EPA Clean Air Markets website, NO X SIP Call em issions data and com p liance reports (and Clean Air Markets Data and Maps (http://cam ddataandm aps.epa.gov/gdm /).



### Table 3-3: Kingston Fossil Plant NO X 

### Emission Reductions Under the NO X 

### Budget Trading Program and CAIR NO X 

### Oz one Season Trading Program

Oz one Season Heat Input (MMBtu) NO X 

### Emissions (tons) Avg. NO X 

### Emission Rate (lb/MMBtu)
2 0 0 3 4 5

, 7 4 5

, 0 0 7 1 1

, 3 2 7 0

. 5 0
2 0 0 4 4 3

, 2 6 1

, 8 6 4 3

, 8 5 5 0

. 1 8
2 0 0 5 4 4

, 3 6 0

, 9 8 6 2

, 0 7 0 0

. 0 9
2 0 0 6 4 7

, 6 2 0

, 7 8 7 1

, 1 5 5 0

. 0 4 9
2 0 0 7 4 7

, 9 2 0

, 3 2 5 1

, 1 9 6 0

. 0 5
2 0 0 8 4 5

, 9 4 2

, 4 4 4 1

, 1 5 3 0

. 0 5 Data Source: EPA Clean Air Markets website, NO X SIP Call em issions data and com p liance reports () and Clean Air Markets Data and Maps (http://cam ddataandm aps.epa.gov/gdm /).



### NO X 

### Reductions in Upw i nd States

EPA’s “Finding of Significant Contribution and Rulem a king for Certain States in the Ozone Tr a n s port Assessm ent Group Region for Purposes of Reducing Regional Transport of Ozone” (NO X 

### SIP Call) 18 

### indicated that Tennessee’s 8-hour ozone nonattainm e nt areas received significant

18 Federal Register Volum e 63, No. 207, Tuesday, October 27, 1998, 57356 – 57538.



### 33

### contributions from several upwind States 19 

### . Tennessee expects that NO X 

### em ission reductions from neighboring states will contribute to attainm e nt of the 8-hour ozone standard (Table 3-4).

Table 3-4 indicates that m o st NO X 

### Budget States have m a de signi ficant em ission reductions betw een 2000 and 2008. For the States that EPA listed as contributing significantly to ozone nonattainm e nt in Tennessee, EPA’s 2008 report on the NO X 

### Budget Trading Program 20 

### indicates that em issions have been reduced by 645,265 tons, for an average reduction of 60.8%.

Table 3-4 : NO X 

### Budget Trading Program – Regional Reductions Statew ide NO X 

### Reductions from 2000-2008 (Ranked by % Reduction)

Ozone Season NO X Emissions (tons)

State 2000 2005 2008 % Reduction from 2000 - 2008

D C 1 0 9

, 1 9 8 3 0

, 4 0 1 2 7

, 0 8 9 7 5

. 2 %

D E 6 9

, 6 4 1 2 5

, 7 1 8 2 1

, 7 1 1 6 8

. 8 %

M D 1 5 9

, 5 7 8 5 4

, 3 3 5 5 4

, 6 4 4 6 5

. 8 %

M O 8 4

, 5 6 0 3 3

, 6 3 2 3 0

, 2 2 1 6 4

. 3 %

S C 2 8

, 9 5 4 2 0

, 9 8 9 1 0

, 6 6 7 6 3

. 2 %

V A 7 3

, 0 8 2 3 2

, 8 8 8 2 7

, 1 0 5 6 2

. 9 %

T N 3 4

, 0 5 8 1 8

, 8 0 9 1 2

, 7 7 7 6 2

. 5 %

W V 1 0 1

, 6 0 1 3 6

, 7 3 0 3 9

, 3 8 6 6 1

. 2 %

N C 1 4 5

, 7 2 2 5 7

, 2 4 9 5 7

, 8 3 8 6 0

. 3 %

A L 8 0

, 4 2 5 4 2

, 1 5 7 3 4

, 3 5 8 5 7

. 3 %

I L 3 9

, 6 7 4 1 8

, 1 9 3 1 7

, 5 5 2 5 5

. 8 %

M I 4 0

, 0 4 3 2 2

, 3 0 9 1 9

, 5 9 6 5 1

. 1 %

K Y 2 8 8 2 5 3 1 6 1 4 4

. 1 %

O H 8 7

, 3 2 9 5 1

, 1 2 5 5 6

, 7 4 7 3 5

. 0 %

P A 5

, 2 5 6 6

, 5 3 8 4

, 2 8 5 1 8

. 5 %

I N 1 3 4 2 7 9 1 3 3 0

. 7 %

All States 1,059,543 451,605 414,270 52.9%

No tes to Ta ble 3

- 4 :

1. Data Sour ce: E P A r e por t, T h e NO X B udget Trading P r ogram: 2008 Highlights . Available online at EPA Clean Air Markets website (http://www.epa.gov/airm arkets /progress/NBP_4.htm l ).



### Onroad Mobile Sources

A significant am ount of pollution is expected to be reduced from onroad m obile sources (m obile sources). Federal requirem e nts for cleaner cars and trucks, and cleaner fuels, have contributed to

19 These States included Alabam a, District of Colum b ia, De laware, Georgia, Illinois, I ndiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, S outh Carolina, Virginia, W e st Virginia, and W i sconsin. W i sconsin was later rem oved from the list of States subject to the NO X SIP Call, and is not required to participate in the NO X Budget Trading Program . Missouri becam e subject to the NO X Budget Trading Program in 2007.

20 NO X Budget Trading Program: 2005 Compliance and Environmental Results . Available online at EPA Clean Air Markets website (http://www.epa.gov/airm arkt/p rogress/docs/2005-NBP-Com p liance-Report.pdf).



### 34

### substantial decreases in em issions from these s ources. Federal standards for National Low Em ission Vehicles (NLEV) began in 1999, and im plem ented through 2001 for new light duty cars and trucks. Tier 2 vehicle standards began in 2004 and will result in additional reductions from the passenger vehicle fleet. As the fleet of ve hicles nationally, and in the Knoxville area, is replaced with newer and cleaner vehicles, the em issions from these vehicles should reduce on a gram s per m ile basis.

New federal em issions standards for onroad heavy- duty diesel engines and vehicles, beginning in 2004, will contribute significantly to reductions in NO x 

### and VOC em issions from diesel powered vehicles. Additionally, the effects of other nati onal program s, like the new standards for gasoline and diesel f u el sulf ur content, will also contribute to decreased em issions. EPA’s program s f o r onroad heavy-duty diesel engines is expected to result in NO x 

### and particulate m a tter reductions of around 90%.

Non-road Mobile Sources

A variety of Federal non-road m obile source em i ssions reduction initiatives will result in reduced

em issions f r om non-road sources. A wide variety of equipm ent will be af f ected by th e s e r e g u l a tio n s , including lawnm o wers and garden equipm ent, farm equipm ent and construction equipm ent.

In 1994, EPA adopted the first set of em ission standa rds (Tier 1) for all new nonroad diesel engines greater than 37 kilowatts (50 horsepower), except t hose used in locom o tives and m a rine vessels. EPA also phased in m o re stringent “Tier 2” em ission standards from 2001 to 2006 for all engine sizes and added m o re stringent “Tier 3” standa rds for engines between 37 and 560 kW (50 and 750 horsepower) from 2006 to 2008. The EPA estim ates these standards will further reduce nonroad diesel engine em issions by 60% for NOx and 40% for particulate m a tter from the 1994 Tier 1

em ission levels 21



### .
In addition to controls on nonroad diesel engines, EPA is phasing in a set of controls for nonroad spark ignition engines. Starting in 2007, m a nufact urers were required to m eet m o re stringent standards which will result in a 90% reduction in NO x 

### , HC, and CO em issions 22 

### . Addi t i onal controls will reduce evaporative hydrocarbon em issions from gasoline fuel tanks.

State and Local Measures

The following m easures have been im plem ented at the State and local level and are expected to contribute to the reduction of ground-level ozone in the Knoxville nonattainm e nt area. W ith the exception of Stage I vapor recovery, the m easures listed below were not accounted for in the

em issions inventory.

Stage I Vapor Recovery

Tennessee has prom ulgated rules for Stage I Gasoline Vapor Recovery for several counties

21 U. S. EPA. Program Update Reducing Air Pollution from Nonroad Engines . April 2003. US EPA EPA420-F-03- 0 1 1

.

22 Ibid.



### 35

### throughout Tennessee, including Anderson, Blount, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon, and Sevier Counties. Gasoline dispensing stations in these counties that were existing sources on Decem b er 29, 2004, were required to com p ly with this rule by May 1, 2006.

Onroad Mobile Sources

Effective in 2005, the Tennessee Air Pollution Contro l Board prom ulgated a st atew ide m o tor vehicle anti-tam p ering rule. This rule, defined in Chapter 1200-3-36, Motor Vehicle Tam p ering, was
prom ulgated to reduce the air pollution caused by tam p ering with a m o tor vehicle’s em issions control system . The area of applicability for this rule is statewide. Chapter 1200-3-36 defines

tam p ering as m odifying, rem oving or rendering inoperative any air pollution em ission control device, which results in an increase in em issions beyond established federal m o tor vehicle standards. Additionally, the rule identif ies what is speci fically prohibited (exam p le: rem oving a catalytic converter).

Air Quality Alert Programs in the Knoxville Region

W ith respect to ozone, air quality alerts are typically called on hot, m uggy days with little wind, when ground-level ozone concentrations are predic ted to approach unhealthy levels and the ozone NAAQS could be exceeded 23



### . Once the air quality forecast is issued, the m e dia is able to release these alerts in a tim ely fashion, and air quality alert days are announced to the public through television and radio. Citizens can also receive e-m a il notification of air quality alerts via Envi r o Fl a s h a nd Ai r NOW. Ma ny busi n e sse s subscrib e to the alerts and conduct their own activities within their individual structures.

Sm art Boards located on Knoxville interstates ha ve been used to notify drivers of program

recom m e ndations on air quality alert days. Efforts ar e underway to contin u e th e u s e o f th is m e d i u m for 2010, in conjunction with the State’s TDOT 511 inform ation program . Knoxville Area Transit (KAT) offers free bus rides on al ert days, and senior citizens m a y ride the buses year-round for no charge. The Knoxville region has a nationally r ecognized Sm art Trips program in effect in Anderson, Blount and Knox counties.

23 http://www.epa.gov/reg3artd/airquality/actdays.htm

.


### 36

### 4.0 MAINTENANCE DEMONSTRATION AND EMISSION INVENTORY

An em ission inventory was prepared to estim ate base year (2007) NO X 

### and VOC em issions in the Knoxville nonattainm e nt area, with em issions projections for the years 2010, 2013, 2016, 2020 and 2024 (Attachm e nt A). This em ission invent ory includes all anthropogenic VOC and NO X 

### sources for Anderson, Blount, Jefferson, Loudon, Knox, and Sevier Counties. The portion of the nonattainm e nt area located in Cocke County is within the boundaries of the Great Sm oky Mountains National Park. W ith the exception of onroad sour ces, em issions in the Cocke County portion of the nonattainm e nt area are insignificant. Further disc ussion of Cocke County em issions is included in Appendix G of Attachm e nt A.

An attainm e nt year inventory can be developed fo r any of the three years in which an attaining de si gn va l u e i s c o mput ed. For the Knoxville nonattainm e nt area, 2007 was chosen as the attainm e nt year inventory. Use of 2007 as the attainm e nt year is believed to be representative of the em issions during the attainm e nt period.

Point Sources

The State of Tennessee’s 2007 em issions inventor y, prepared by the Division of Air Pollution Control and Knox County Division of Air Quality Managem e nt, was used as a source of base year

em issions for Anderson, Blount, Jefferson, Loudon, Knox, and Sevier Counties. NO X 

### and VOC

em issions were calculated for a typical sum m e r July day, taking into account the seasonal adjustm e nt f actor f o r sum m e r operations of f

acilities.

An inform ation request was sent via e-m a il to the designated com p any contact. A typical request included required pollutants, division rule to fu rnish inform ation, and contact inform ation. Each facility was required to update the previous Em ission Database Layout (EDL) file with inform ation for the requested year 24 

### and return the updated EDL to the APC em ission inventory m a ilbox. For this redesignation request, point source em issions we r e obtained from the EDL for com p anies in the desired counties.

Future-year em issions were projected for 2010, 2013, 2016, 2020, and 2024, using 2007 em issions and econom ic growth factors from EPA’s Econom ic Growth and Analysis System (EGAS 5.0). Growth factors were determ ined using the Defa ult REMI 5.5 SCC Configuration and user-selected base and future years 25 

### . Growth factors were obtained from EGAS 5.0, and m u ltiplied by the 2007

em ission values to calculate em issions for future years. The Knox County Health Departm e nt, Air Quality Managem e nt Division, provided local data for Knox County. The point so u r ce in v e n t o r y f o r five counties (Anderson, Blount, Jefferson, Knox, and Loudon) shows that 2007 NO X 

### em issions

24 The Em ission Database Layout file includes em issions un its, em ission release points, em ission process and period, and em issions control equipm ent.

25 The Default REMI 5.5 SCC Configuration allows the calculation of future em ission factors based on Source Classification Category (SCC). The EGAS 5.0 provides econom ic growth factors by industry type on a statewide basis (not on county basis). It allows the user to enter the base year and select future years for which econom ic grow t h f act o r s are needed. The m odel outputs growth factors based on econom ic growth projections by industry by SCC source classification codes.



### 37

### equaled 42.69 tons/day, for a typical Ju ly day (Table 4-1). The highest NO X 

### em issions were observed in Anderson County, with 34.46 tons/day in 2007. Point source NO X 

### em issions in this county are expected to grow to 45.11 tons/day by 2024 (1.8% increase).

Table 4-1: Point Source NO X 

### Emissions for a Typical Summer Day

NOx, Typical Summer Day with SAF, July, (ton/day) County 

### 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

A n d e r s o n 3 4

. 4 6 3 4

. 4 8 3 4

. 5 2 3 4

. 6 4 3 4

. 6 9 3 4

. 7 9

B l o u n t 0

. 8 5 0

. 8 3 0

. 8 3 0

. 9 0 0

. 9 8 1

. 0 6

J e f f e r s o n 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

K n o x 5

. 4 5 5

. 3 8 5

. 5 8 5

. 9 6 6

. 5 0 7

. 0 7

L o u d o n 1

. 9 0 1

. 9 3 1

. 9 8 2

. 0 3 2

. 0 9 2

. 1 5

S e v i e r 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 4 0

. 0 4
Total Emissions 42.69 42.65 42.94 43.56 44.30 45.11 % Change in Emissions from 2007 -0.1% 0.59% 2.1% 3.2% 3.6%



### Total VOC em issions from point sources were 7.32 tons/day in 2007 (Table 4-2). Blount County was the largest point source em itter, with 2.43 tons /day of VOC em issions. VOC em issions for the five counties are projected to increase to 9.53 tons/day in 2024 (30% increase).

Table 4-2: Point Source VOC Emissions for a Typical Summer Day

VOC, Typical Summer Day with SAF, July, (ton/day) County 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

A n d e r s o n 0

. 6 3 0

. 6 6 0

. 6 8 0

. 7 2 0

. 8 3 0

. 9 6

B l o u n t 2

. 4 3 2

. 0 6 2

. 0 5 2

. 2 2 2

. 4 6 2

. 7 5

J e f f e r s o n 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 2

K n o x 2

. 1 3 2

. 2 1 2

. 2 9 2

. 4 7 2

. 7 4 3

. 0 4

L o u d o n 2

. 1 2 2

. 2 3 2

. 3 4 2

. 4 6 2

. 6 0 2

. 7 6

S e v i e r 0

. 0 0 1 0

. 0 0 1 0

. 0 0 2 0

. 0 0 2 0

. 0 0 2 0

. 0 0 2 Total Emissions 7.32 7.17 7.37 7.88 8.64 9.53 % Change in Emissions from 2007 -2.0% 0.7% 7.7% 18.0% 30.2%



### The top five NO X 

### em ission sources (Table 4-3) account for 40.91 tons/day (95.8%) of total NO X



### e m i ssi ons. TVA Bul l Run Fossi l Pl a n t i n Anderson County is the largest single em itter of NOx with 32.7 tons/day (76.5%), followed by Cem e x, Inc ., of Knox County with 10.8% of total NO X



### em issions in the region (4.61 tons/day).

38

### Table 4-3: Top Five NO X 

### Sources in 2007

Facility Name County 2007 NO X Emissions (tons/day) % of Total NO X Emissions

TVA Bull Run Anderson 32.69 76.5%

C E M E X K n o x 4

. 6 1 1 0

. 8 % Tate & Lyle Loudon 1.56 3.7%

DOE Y-12 Anderson 1.47 3.4%

ALCOA - South Plant Blount 0.58 1.4%



### The top five VOC sources (Table 4-4) contribut ed 4.89 tons/day (66.7%) of point source VOC in 2007. The largest single VOC source is Tate & Lyle in Loudon County (1.83 tons/day).

Table 4-4: Top Five VOC Sources in 2007

Facility Name County 2007 VOC Emissions (tons/day) % of Total VOC Emissions Tate & Lyle Loudon 1.83 25.0%
ALCOA - North Plant Blount 1.31 17.8% Sea Ray Island River Dr Knox 0.68 9.3% USI, INC Blount 0.57 7.8% Republic Plastics Knox 0.50 6.8%



### Area Sources

The area source em ission inventory was develope d using EPA Nonpoint files located on EPA’s CHIEF Em ission Inventory website for the 2008 NEI and from the docum entation for the Final 2002 Nonpoint Sector (February 2006 version) Nationa l Em ission Inventory fo r Criteria and Hazardous Air Pollutants 26 

### . Area source em ission estim ates were developed for 56 different source classification codes (SCC). Area source em issi ons for Knox County were provided by the Knox County Departm e nt of Health, Air Quality Manage m e nt Division. Annual em is s i o n es tim ates w e re adjusted as necessary to estim ate tons/day em issions for July.

Future-year em issions were projected for 2010, 2013, 2016, 2020, and 2024, using 2007 em issions

a nd EGAS 5.0 growth factors. Growth factors obtained from EGAS 5.0 were m u ltiplied by the 2007

em ission values to calculate em issions f o r f u ture y ears. Table 4-5 and Table 4-6 show the total area source NO X 

### and VOC em issions for the selected years between 2007 and 2024 in July. NO X



### em issions are expected to increase by 30% by 2024, while VOC em issions are expected to increase by 21% by 2024.

26 See Appendix C of Attachm e nt A for additional inform ation.



### 39

### Table 4-5: Area Source NO X 

### Emissions

NOx, Typical Summer Day with SAF, July, (ton/day) County 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

A n d e r s o n 0

. 4 6 0

. 4 8 0

. 5 0 0

. 5 2 0

. 5 4 0

. 5 7

B l o u n t 0

. 3 0 0

. 3 0 0

. 3 1 0

. 3 2 0

. 3 3 0

. 3 5

J e f f e r s o n 0

. 2 3 0

. 2 4 0

. 2 4 0

. 2 5 0

. 2 6 0

. 2 8

K n o x 0

. 6 5 0

. 6 8 0

. 7 7 0

. 9 3 0

. 9 6 0

. 9 5

L o u d o n 0

. 2 2 0

. 2 3 0

. 2 4 0

. 2 4 0

. 2 6 0

. 2 7

S e v i e r 0

. 2 1 0

. 2 2 0

. 2 3 0

. 2 4 0

. 2 5 0

. 2 6 Total Emissions 2

. 0 7 2

. 1 5 2

. 2 9 2

. 5 0 2

. 6 0 2

. 6 8 % Change in Emissions from 2007 3

. 9 % 10.6% 20.8% 2 5

. 6 % 29.5%



### Table 4-6: Area Source VOC Emissions

VOC, Typical Summer Day with SAF, July, (ton/day) County 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

A n d e r s o n 3

. 8 3 3

. 9 4 4

. 0 6 4

. 2 1 4

. 3 9 4

. 5 8

B l o u n t 6

. 5 0 6

. 6 5 6

. 8 7 7

. 1 5 7

. 5 1 7

. 8 9

J e f f e r s o n 3

. 6 5 3

. 7 4 3

. 8 3 3

. 9 9 4

. 1 9 4

. 3 9

K n o x 1 2

. 5 7 1 2

. 9 1 1 3

. 2 7 1 3

. 9 0 1 4

. 7 1 1 5

. 5 6

L o u d o n 2

. 5 5 2

. 6 6 2

. 7 5 2

. 8 4 2

. 9 4 3

. 0 5

S e v i e r 4

. 1 5 4

. 3 1 4

. 4 5 4

. 5 5 4

. 6 6 4

. 7 7 Total Emissions 3 3

. 2 5 3 4

. 2 1 3 5

. 2 3 3 6

. 6 4 3 8

. 4 0 4 0

. 2 4 % Change in Emissions from 2007 2

. 9 % 5

. 9 % 1 0

. 2 % 1 5

. 5 % 2 1

. 0 %



### Onroad Mobile Sources

Onroad Mobile source em issions were projected using a com b ination of output from com puter
pr ogr a m s t h a t pr e d i c t m obile em ission factors and traffic volum es. These traffic volum e projections and em ission factors are discussed in m o re detail in Appendix D.

The daily vehicle m iles traveled (DVMT) projections, based on data provided by the Knoxville Transportation Planning Organization (TPO), are pr esented in Table 4-7. Further discussion is included in Appendix D. The 2007 DVMT were de term ined from traffic counts m a de by the Tennessee Departm e nt of Transportation. The DVMT for 2014 and 2024 were determ ined from a travel dem a nd m odel, with linear interpolation used for the years not projected by the travel dem a nd

m odel (2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020). Future vehicle ac tivity for the nonattainm e nt area of Cocke County is described in Appendix G.

Detailed inform ation on MOBILE6.2 inputs are cont ained in Appendix D. The MOBILE6.2 input

40

### and output files are included in Appendix H. Onro ad em issions totals by county are sum m a rized in Tables 4-8 and 4-9. Discussion on the developm ent of onroad em issions for Cocke County are contained in Appendix G. Tables 4-8 a nd 4-9 illustrate signif i cant reductions in NO x 

### and VOC

em issions from onroad m obile sources projected to occur between 2007 and 2024.

Between 2007 and 2024 onroad em issions of Oxides of Nitrogen (NO x 

### ) are projected to decrease approxim a tely 69%. Onroad em issions of NO x 

### in 2007 are 71.83 tons/day, w h ich decrease over tim e to 22.29 tons/day in 2024. Sim ilarly, substantial reductions in Volatile Or ganic C o m pounds (V O C s) are projected to occur between 2007 and 2024. VOCs are expected to decrease from onroad m o tor vehicles from 36.77 tons/day in 2007 to 18.39 tons/day in 2024. This substantial reduction in oxides of nitrogen (NO x 

### ) is largely attributable to the Environm ental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program

.
Table 4-7: Seasonally Adjusted Summer Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled

Year 2007 2010 2013 2014 2016 2020 2024 County Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled 1, 2

A n d e r s o n 2

, 3 8 2

, 9 8 2 2

, 5 2 1

, 3 1 6 2

, 6 5 9

, 6 4 9 2

, 7 0 5

, 7 6 0 2

, 7 8 9

, 6 7 4 2

, 9 5 7

, 5 0 3 3

, 1 2 5

, 3 3 2

B l o u n t 3

, 0 9 9

, 6 4 4 3

, 4 5 8

, 7 6 1 3

, 8 1 7

, 8 7 9 3

, 9 3 7

, 5 8 5 4

, 1 5 2

, 2 7 8 4

, 5 8 1

, 6 6 5 5

, 0 1 1

, 0 5 1 Cocke 3 1 7

, 5 3 8 1 8

, 9 7 0 2 0

, 4 0 3 2 0

, 8 8 0 2 1

, 7 1 8 2 3

, 3 9 5 2 5

, 0 7 2
J e f f e r s o n 2

, 4 2 8

, 3 7 8 2

, 5 9 0

, 6 2 6 2

, 7 5 2

, 8 7 3 2

, 8 0 6

, 9 5 6 2

, 9 2 1

, 9 8 7 3

, 1 5 2

, 0 5 0 3

, 3 8 2

, 1 1 3
K n o x 1 4

, 6 4 0

, 1 4 8 1 5

, 5 8 2

, 7 5 2 1 6

, 5 2 5

, 3 5 6 1 6

, 8 3 9

, 5 5 7 1 7

, 3 2 3

, 5 4 4 1 8

, 2 9 1

, 5 1 9 1 9

, 2 5 9

, 4 9 3
L o u d o n 2

, 3 5 3

, 7 8 2 2

, 5 0 5

, 6 2 3 2

, 6 5 7

, 4 6 4 2

, 7 0 8

, 0 7 8 2

, 7 6 7

, 2 2 6 2

, 8 8 5

, 5 2 3 3

, 0 0 3

, 8 1 9 S e v i e r 3

, 5 4 0

, 7 1 9 3

, 7 1 5

, 3 7 2 3

, 8 9 0

, 0 2 4 3

, 9 4 8

, 2 4 2 4

, 1 0 8

, 9 0 6 4

, 4 3 0

, 2 3 5 4

, 7 5 1

, 5 6 4 Total 28,463,191 30,393,420 32,323,648 32,967,058 34,085,333 36,321,890 38,558,444

1 Data for 2007 is TDOT HPMS Data; that for 2014 and 2024 was produced by the Knoxville TPO’s Travel Dem a nd Model (except Cocke County )

. 2 DVM T for 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2020 ar e inter polated 3 DVM T is for the nonattainm e nt por tion of Cocke C ounty consisting only of the ar ea in the GSM N P.



### 41

### Table 4-8: Onroad NO x 

### Emissions Summary for the Knoxville 8-hour Oz one Nonattainment Area

NO X Emissions in tons/day County 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024 A n d e r s o n 6

. 2 4 5

. 4 7 4

. 7 0 3

. 9 3 2

. 9 0 1

. 8 7
B l o u n t 4

. 5 8 4

. 1 9 3

. 7 9 3

. 3 9 2

. 8 5 2

. 3 2 C o c k e * 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 1
J e f f e r s o n 1 0

. 8 7 9

. 4 2 7

. 9 6 6

. 5 1 4

. 5 7 2

. 6 3
K n o x 3 3

. 8 1 2 9

. 7 6 2 5

. 7 1 2 1

. 6 6 1 6

. 2 7 1 0

. 8 7
L o u d o n 9

. 9 9 8

. 6 2 7

. 2 5 5

. 8 8 4

. 0 5 2

. 2 2 S e v i e r 6

. 3 2 5

. 6 2 4

. 9 3 4

. 2 3 3

. 3 0 2

. 3 7 Totals 71.83 63.10 54.36 45.62 33.96 22.29 % Change from 2007 -12% -24% -36% -53% -69% * GSMNP only.



### Table 4-9: Onroad VOC Emissions Summary for the Knoxville 8-hour Oz one Nonattainment Area

VOC Emissions in tons/day County 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024 A n d e r s o n 2

. 9 3 2

. 6 6 2

. 3 9 2

. 1 2 1

. 7 5 1

. 3 9
B l o u n t 4

. 2 4 3

. 9 4 3

. 6 3 3

. 3 3 2

. 9 2 2

. 5 2 C o c k e * 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 1
J e f f e r s o n 2

. 7 4 2

. 4 9 2

. 2 5 2

. 0 0 1

. 6 8 1

. 3 5
K n o x 1 9

. 3 2 1 7

. 6 1 1 5

. 9 0 1 4

. 1 9 1 1

. 9 1 9

. 6 3
L o u d o n 2

. 6 5 2

. 4 0 2

. 1 5 1

. 9 0 1

. 5 6 1

. 2 2 S e v i e r 4

. 8 7 4

. 4 1 3

. 9 5 3

. 4 9 2

. 8 8 2

. 2 7 Totals 36.77 33.53 30.29 27.05 22.72 18.39 % Change from 2007 -9% -18% -26% -38% -50% * GSMNP only.



### MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS BUDGET

Transportation Conform ity, as established in the Clean Air Act, is intended to ensure that f e derally funded or approved transportation projects, plans or program s conform to the applicable State Im plem entation Plan (SIP). This requirem e nt is achieved through the establishm ent of a m o tor vehicle em issions budget for the applicable pollutants.

Pursuant to the EPA’s transportation conform ity rule in 40 CFR Part 93, specific em ission budgets

a r e he r e by de fi ne d for t h e onr oa d mobi l e s our c e s portion of the em issions inventory. These budgets are to be used by the transportation authorities to assure that transportation plans, program s, and projects are consistent with, and conform to, the m a intenance of accepta ble air quality in the Knoxville area. The last year of this m a intena nce plan is 2024. Specific Motor Vehicle Em issions Budgets (MVEB) for NO x 

### and VOC for 2024 are contained in Table 4-11.

The MVEB reflects the total onroad em issions fo r 2024, plus an allocation from the available NO x 

### and VOC safety m a rgins. This allocation from the safety m a rgin accounts for uncertainty in the

42

### projections and is available due to reductions in NO x 

### and VOC that are projected to occur prim arily from onroad m obile sources. The MVEB is constrai ned to assure that the total em issions (i.e., all

s our c e c a t e gor i e s ) do not e x ceed the 2007 attainm e nt y ear em issions. The available safety m a rgin is illustrated in Table 4-10.

Table 4-10: Emission Projections for the Knoxville Area

Summary of NO X Emissions (tons/day)
Year Point Area Onroad Nonroad (excluding

MLA) Nonroad (MLA) Total Safety Margin Change from 2007 2 0 0 7 4 2

. 6 9 2

. 0 7 7 1

. 8 3 1 3

. 1 6 5

. 4 4 1 3 5

. 1 9 2 0 1 0 4 2

. 6 5 2

. 1 5 6 3

. 1 0 1 2

. 1 7 5

. 0 3 1 2 5

. 1 0 1 0

. 0 9

- 7

. 5 % 2 0 1 3 4 2

. 9 4 2

. 2 9 5 4

. 3 6 1 0

. 5 1 4. 3 4 1 1 4

. 4 4 2 0

. 7 5

- 1 5

. 3 % 2 0 1 6 4 3

. 5 6 2

. 5 0 4 5

. 6 2 8

. 7 4 3. 6 1 1 0 4

. 0 3 3 1

. 1 6

- 2 3

. 0 % 2 0 2 0 4 4

. 3 0 2

. 6 0 3 3

. 9 6 7

. 2 1 2. 9 8 9 1

. 0 5 4 4

. 1 4

- 3 2

. 7 % 2 0 2 4 4 5

. 1 1 2

. 6 8 2 2

. 2 9 6

. 3 7 2. 6 3 7 9

. 0 8 5 6

. 1 1

- 4 1

. 5 %

Note: E m issions ar e for Ander s on, Bl ount, Jeffer s on, Knox, L oudon, Sevier a nd onr oad em issions for Cocke County

. MLA = Com m e rcial Marine Vessels, Locom o tives and Aircraft.

Summary of VOC Emissions (tons/day)
Year Point Area Onroad Nonroad (excluding

MLA) Nonroad (MLA) Total Safety Margin Change from 2007 2 0 0 7 7

. 3 2 3 3

. 2 5 3 6

. 7 7 3 4

. 2 6 0

. 6 8 1 1 2

. 2 8 2 0 1 0 7

. 1 7 3 4

. 2 1 3 3

. 5 3 3 1

. 0 5 0

. 6 2 1 0 6

. 5 8 5

. 7

- 5

. 1 % 2 0 1 3 7

. 3 7 3 5

. 2 3 3 0

. 2 9 2 6

. 4 7 0. 5 2 9 9

. 8 8 1 2

. 4 0

- 1 1

. 0 % 2 0 1 6 7

. 8 8 3 6

. 6 4 2 7

. 0 5 2 2

. 0 7 0. 4 4 9 4

. 0 8 1 8

. 2 0

- 1 6

. 2 % 2 0 2 0 8

. 6 4 3 8

. 4 0 2 2

. 7 2 1 8

. 0 4 0. 3 5 8 8

. 1 5 2 4

. 1 3

- 2 1

. 5 % 2 0 2 4 9

. 5 3 4 0

. 2 4 1 8

. 3 9 1 6

. 6 2 0. 3 3 8 5

. 1 1 2 7

. 1 7

- 2 4

. 2 %

Note: E m issions ar e for Ander s on, Bl ount, Jeffer s on, Knox, L oudon, Sevier a nd onr oad em issions for Cocke County

. MLA = Com m e rcial Marine Vessels, Locom o tives and Aircraft.



### Under 40 CFR 93.101, the term safety m a rgin is the difference between the attainm e nt level (from all sources) and the projected level of em issions (from all sources) in the m a intenance plan. The attainm e nt level of the em ission is the level of em issions during one of the years in which the area

m e t the NAAQS for the pollutant of concern. The safety m a rgin, or portion of the safety m a rgin, can be allocated to the transportation sector; howev er, the total em issions m u st rem a in at or below the attainm e nt level. A portion of the available 2024 safety m a rgin is allocated to the MVEB. Specifically, 14.03 tons/day of the available N O x 

### safety m a rgin is allocated to the 2024 MVEB, the

rem a ining safety m a rgin for NOx for 2024 is 42.08 t ons/day. Also, 6.8 tons/day of the available VOC safety m a rgin is allocated to the 2024 MVEB , the rem a ining saf e ty m a rgin f o r VOC f o r 2024 is 21.09 tons/day. The Motor Vehicle Em issions Budgets including safety m a rgins for the Greater Knoxville 1997 8-hour Ozone Nonattainm e nt Area (Anderson, Blount, Jefferson, Knox, Loudon and Sevier Counties and the portion of Cocke Count y that falls within the boundaries of the Great Sm oky Mountains National Park) are contained in Table 4-11.

43

### Table 4-11: Motor Vehicle Emissi ons Budgets for NOx and VOC for 2024

2024 (tons/day )

NO x 

### 36.32
VOC 25.19

The MVEB is consistent with the plan f o r m a inta ining total em issions f r om all source categories at or below the 2007 NO x 

### and VOC em issions levels through th e year 2024. For future conform ity determ inations, transportation authorities should rely on the above MVEB unless this m a intenance plan is revised.

Nonroad Mobile Sources

The em ission inventory for nonroad m obile sources was obtained from E. H. Pechan & Associates 27



### , Inc., the contractor for the Southeastern Modeli ng, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) project. The SEMAP Project is funded by ten States 28 

### and addresses ozone, fine particle, and regional haze obligations through grants awarded by EPA. The SE MAP project and the in-kind services of the participating agencies are designed t o produce technical analyses to aid the participating agencies in developing SIPs required by the Clean Air Act. SEMAP is currently developing future-year

m odeling for ozone, fine particle, and regional h aze based on the sam e base year (2007) that was used for this em ission inventory.

Em ission estim ates from nonroad m obile s ources are based on EPA’s NONROAD2008 m odel, which includes estim ates for growth based on expected future econom ic conditions and other factors as well as any national controls that apply to thes e sources in future years (Table 4-12, Table 4-13). EPA’s National Mobile Inventory Model (NMI M), which incorporates EPA’s latest NONROAD

m odel, was used for the NONROAD m odel portion of the inventory. Using the 2007 base year and corresponding year NMIM county-level database (NCD) was used to develop the m o st representative NONROAD m odel inventory, and NMIM was used to generate annual em ission estim ates for the required pollutants.

Estim ates of aircraft, locom o tive, an d co m m e rcia l m a rine (ALM) em issions are not produced by the NONROAD m odel. ALM em issions for 2007 we re prim arily based on EPA’s 2008 National Em issions Inventory (NEI), as described in EPA’s 2008 NEI docum entation. The SEMAP contractor’s m e thodology for developing the ALM em i ssions inventory is incl uded in A ppendix F of Attachm e nt A.

27 Portions of the nonroad inventory discussion are taken from the d o c u m en t Non-road and Area Source Base Year and Future Year Emissions Inventories Final Work Plan , E. H. Pechan & Associates, Inc., July 13, 2009. A copy of this work plan is included in Attachm e nt A.

28 The SEMAP States are: Alabam a, Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and W e st Virginia. SEMAP was devel oped and is m a naged through the Southeastern States Air Resource Managers (SESARM).



### 44

### Future-year em issions were projected for 2010, 2013, 2016, 2020, and 2024, using 2007 em issions

a nd EGAS 5.0 growth factors. Growth factors obtained from EGAS 5.0 were m u ltiplied by the 2007

em ission values to calculate em issions for future years.

Ove r a l l

, pr oj e c t e d e m i s s i ons from nonroad sources appear to be decreasing between 2007 and 2024. Most segm ents show a reduction in nonroad em issions except for NO X 

### em issions from “Pleasure Craft” and “Recreational Equipm ent”. Detailed em issions estim ates by equipm ent category are contained in Appendix F of Attachm e nt A.

Table 4-12: NO X 

### Emissions from Nonroad Sources (excluding Commercial Marine, Locomotive and Aircraft)

NO X , Typical Summer Day, July (tons/day)
County 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

A n d e r s o n 1

. 3 4 1

. 1 3 0

. 9 1 0

. 7 2 0

. 5 8 0

. 5 2

B l o u n t 1

. 6 9 1

. 5 2 1

. 2 8 1

. 0 5 0

. 8 6 0

. 7 5

J e f f e r s o n 1

. 2 0 1

. 2 4 1

. 2 1 1

. 1 0 0

. 9 9 0

. 9 1

K n o x 6

. 8 2 6

. 2 4 5

. 2 6 4

. 2 6 3

. 4 0 2

. 9 5

L o u d o n 1

. 0 0 0

. 9 6 0

. 8 7 0

. 7 6 0

. 6 6 0

. 5 9

S e v i e r 1

. 1 1 1

. 0 8 0

. 9 9 0

. 8 5 0

. 7 2 0

. 6 4

Totals 13.16 12.17 10.52 8.74 7.21 6.36



### Table 4-13: VOC Emissions from Nonroad Sources (excluding Commercial Marine, Locomotive and Aircraft)

VOC, Typical Summer Day, July (ton/day)
County 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

A n d e r s o n 2

. 9 2 2

. 6 6 2

. 2 7 1

. 8 7 1

. 4 9 1

. 3 5

B l o u n t 4

. 1 2 3

. 7 5 3

. 2 2 2

. 7 0 2

. 2 2 2

. 0 7

J e f f e r s o n 5

. 3 4 4

. 6 5 3

. 7 5 2

. 9 6 2

. 1 8 1

. 7 7

K n o x 9

. 3 4 8

. 0 4 6

. 6 0 5

. 7 0 5

. 2 6 5

. 2 2

L o u d o n 3

. 3 1 2

. 9 5 2

. 4 4 1

. 9 7 1

. 5 1 1

. 3 0

S e v i e r 9

. 2 4 9

. 0 1 8

. 1 8 6

. 8 7 5

. 3 9 4

. 9 2

Totals 34.27 31.06 26.46 22.07 18.05 16.63



### For this assessm ent of nonroad sources, future-y ear em issions for aircraft, com m e rcial m a rine vessels, and locom o tives were based on 2007 inform a tion projected to f u ture years using EGAS-5.0 growth factors. Table 4-14 a nd Table 4-15 sum m a rize the em issions from locom o tive, com m e rcial

m a rine and aircraft by county.

45

### Table 4-14: NO X 

### Emissions from Locomotive, Commercial Marine, and Aircraft

Table 4-14(a): NO X Emissions from Aircraft Typical Summer Day (tons)
FIPS County 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

4 7 0 0 1 A n d e r s o n 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

4 7 0 0 9 B l o u n t 0

. 3 8 0

. 3 4 0

. 2 8 0

. 2 3 0

. 1 9 0

. 1 7

4 7 0 8 9 J e f f e r s o n 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

4 7 0 9 3 K n o x 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

4 7 1 0 5 L o u d o n 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

4 7 1 5 5 S e v i e r 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

Totals: 0.39 0.35 0.29 0.23 0.19 0.17

Table 4-14(b): NO X Typical Summer Day Locomotive & Commercial Marine Totals by SCC Category, All Counties (tons)
SCC Description 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

2280002200 CMV, UNDERW AY EMISSIONS: D I E S E L 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1

2285002006 RAILROAD EQUIPMENT, DIESEL LINE HAUL: CLASS I 4.89 4.52 3.91 3.25 2.68 2.37

2285002007 RAILROAD EQUIPMENT, DIESEL LINE HAUL LOCOMOTIVES: CLASS II/III O P E R A T I O N S 0

. 1 4 0

. 1 3 0

. 1 1 0

. 1 0 0

. 0 8 0

. 0 7

Totals 5.05 4.66 4.03 3.36 2.77 2.45



### Table 4-15: VOC Emissions from Loco motive, Commercial Marine, and Aircraft

Table 4-15(a): VOC Emissions from Aircraft Typical Summer Day, July (tons/day)
FIPS County 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

4 7 0 0 1 A n d e r s o n 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1

4 7 0 0 9 B l o u n t 0

. 1 7 0

. 1 5 0

. 1 3 0

. 1 0 0

. 1 0 0

. 1 7

4 7 0 8 9 J e f f e r s o n 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

4 7 0 9 3 K n o x 0

. 1 0 0

. 0 8 0

. 0 7 0

. 0 7 0

. 0 6 0

. 1 0

4 7 1 0 5 L o u d o n 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 2

4 7 1 5 5 S e v i e r 0

. 0 7 0

. 0 6 0

. 0 5 0

. 0 4 0

. 0 4 0

. 0 7

Totals: 0.37 0.32 0.27 0.23 0.22 0.37



### 46Table 4-15(b): VOC Typical Summer Day Locomotive & Commercial Marine Totals by SCC Category, All Counties (tons)

SCC Description 2007 2010 2013 2016 2020 2024

2280002200 CMV, UNDERW AY EMISSIONS: D I E S E L 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

2285002006 RAILROAD EQUIPMENT, DIESEL LINE HAUL: CLASS I 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.17 0.14 0.13

2285002007 RAILROAD EQUIPMENT, DIESEL LINE HAUL LOCOMOTIVES: CLASS II/III O P E R A T I O N S 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0 0

. 0 0

Totals 0.28 0.25 0.21 0.17 0.14 0.13



### Biogenic Sources

VOC e m i s s i ons fr om bi oge ni c s our c e s a r e e xpe c t e d t o r e ma i n r e l a tively constant between 2007 and 2024, and were not considered in the m a intenance plan’s inventory.

Commitment to Continued Monitoring, §175A(d) Requirements

Tennessee will continue air quality m onitoring in accordance with 40 CFR 58. In accordance with §175A(d) of the Clean Air Act, Tennessee will im plem ent any m e asures which exist in the current State Im plem entation Plan for ozone. No m easures in the State Im plem entation Plan have been discontinued or m oved to the m a intenance plan.

47

### 5.0 CONTINGENCY MEASURES

The contingency plan provisions of the CAA ar e designed to result in prom pt correction or prevention of NAAQS violations that m i ght occur afte r redesignation of an area to attainm e nt of the NAAQS. Section 175A of the CAA requires that a m a intenance plan include such contingency

me a s ur e s a s EPA de e m s ne c e s s a r y t o a s s u r e t h a t t h e St a t e will prom ptly correct a NAAQS violation that m i ght occur after redesignation. The m a intenan ce plan m u st identify th e contingency m easures to be considered for possible adoption, a schedule for adoption and im plem entation of the selected contingency m easures, and a tim e lim it for action by the State.

The two m a in elem ents of the contingency plan are triggering m echanism s to determ ine when contingency m easures are needed and a process of developing and adopting appropriate control

m easures. The prim ary trigger of the contingenc y plan will be a quality assured/quality controlled violating design value (DV) of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS at any m onitor. Upon activation of the trigger, the State of Tennessee, in conjunction with the Knox County Departm e nt of Air Quality Managem e nt (DAQM), will com m e nce an analysis to determ ine what additional m e asures will be necessary to attain or m a intain the 8-hour ozone standard. Since transpor t from outside the region often im pacts the local m onitors, an evaluati on to determ ine the am ount of local em ission contribution to the high ozone days m a y be conducte d. In addition to the prim ary trigger indicated above, Tennessee and Knox County DAQM will m onito r regional em issions through the CERR. If

t h e CERR r e sul t s indicate that the projected em issions in this m a intenance plan are signif i cantly less

t h a n t h e CERR reveals (m ore than 10 percent) , Tennessee and Knox County DAQM will investigate the differences and develop an appropriate strategy for addressing these differences. In addition, if

am bient m onitoring data indicates that a violation of the three-year design value m a y be im m i nent, Tennessee and Knox County DAQM will evaluate exis ting control m easures to determ ine whether further em ission reduction m easures should be im plem ented.

A trigger level response will consist of a study to determ ine whether the ozone value indicates a trend toward higher ozone concentrations or whet her em issions appear to be increasing. The study will evaluate whether the trend, if any, is likely to continue and, if so, the control m easures necessary to reverse the trend, taking into consid eration ease and tim ing f o r im plem entation, as well

as econom ic and social considerations. If new em ission control m easures are already prom ulgated and scheduled to be im plem ented at the Federal or State level, and if those m easures are determ in ed to be sufficient to address the increase in peak ozone concentrations, additional local m easures m a y be unnecessary. The State will subm it to the EP A an analysis to assess whether the proposed

em ission control m easures are adequate to reverse the increase in peak ozone concentrations and to

m a intain the 8- hour ozone standard in the area.

If additional controls are necessary, Tenness ee and the Knox County DAQM will im plem ent the

a p p r o p r i a t e c o n t i n g e n c y me a s u r e s n e e d e d t o a s s u r e fu t u r e a t t a i n me n t o f the ozone NAAQS. TDEC and the Knox County Departm e nt of Air Quality Ma nagem e nt w ill com p lete suf f i cient analyses and provide those to the E P A

. If determ ined necessary, the adoption of rules for ensuring attainm e nt and

m a intenance of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS will begin. Contingency m easures w ould be adopted and im plem ented as expeditiously as possible, but no la ter than eighteen to tw en ty-four m onths after the

48

### triggering event 29 

### . The proposed schedule for these actions would be as follows:

• Six m onths to identify appropriate conti ngency m easures, including identification of

em ission sources and appropriate control technologies;

• Between three and six m onths to initiate a stakeholder process; and

• Between nine and twelve m onths to im plem ent the contingency m easures. This step would include the tim e required to draf t rules or SIP am endm ents, com p lete the rulem a king process, and subm it the final plans to EPA.

If it is determ ined that a longer schedule is re quired to im plem ent specific contingency m easures, then, upon selection of the appropriate m easur es, Tennessee will notify EPA of the proposed schedule and will provide sufficient inform ation to EPA to dem onstrate that the proposed m easures are a prom pt correction of the triggering event.

The selection of em ission control m easures will be based on cost-ef f

ectiveness, em ission reduction potential, econom ic and social considerations, or othe r factors that the State deem s to be appropriate. Selected em ission control m easures will be subject to public review, and the State will seek public input prior to selecting new em ission control m easures.

The m easures that will be consid ered for adoption upon a trigger of the contingency plan include the following:

• Im plem entation of diesel retrofit program s, including incentives for perform i ng retrofits

• Reasonable Available Control Technology (RACT) for NO X 

### sources in nonattainm e nt counties

• Program s or incentives to decrease m o tor vehi cle use, including em ployer-based program s, additional park and ride services, enhanced tr ansit service and encouragem ent of flexible work hours/com p ressed work week/telecom m u ting.

• Trip reduction ordinances

• Additional em issions reductions on stationary sources

• Enhanced stationary source inspection to en sure that em issions control equipm ent is functioning properly

• Voluntary fuel program s, including incentives for alternative fuels

29 If quality assured/quality controlled data indicates a vi olating design value for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, then the triggering event will be the date of the design value viola tion, and not the final QA/QC date. However, if initial

m onitoring data indicates a possible design value violation but later QA/QC indicates that a NAAQS violation did not occur, then a triggering event will not have occurred, and contingency m easures will not need to be im plem ented.



### 49

### • Construction of high-occupancy ve hicle (HOV) lanes, or restric tion of certain roads or lanes for high-occupancy vehicles

• Programs for new construction and major reconstr uction of bicycle and pedestrian f acilities, including shared use paths, sidewalks and bicycle lanes.

• Expand Air Quality Action Day activities/Clean Air Partners public education outreach

• Expansion of E-governm e nt services at State and local level

• Additional enforcem ent or outreach on driver observance of reduced speed lim its

• Land use/transportation policies

• Prom ote non-m o torized transportation

• Prom ote tree-planting standards that favor trees with low VOC biogenic em issions

• Prom ote energy saving plans for local governm e nt

• Gas can and lawnm o wer replacem ent program s

• Seasonal open burning ban in nonattainm e nt counties

• Evaluate anti-idling rules and/or policy

• Additional controls in upwind areas, if necessary

Other control m easures, not included in the above list, will be considered if new control program s are deem ed m o re advantageous for this area.

50

### 6.0 CONCLUSIONS

As the preceding docum ent has shown, air quality m onitoring data for the Knoxville nonattainm e nt area indicates that ozone levels have declin ed between 2007 through 2009, and the area now shows attainm e nt of the NAAQS at the controlling m onito r. The decrease in ozone concentrations is a result of perm anent and enforceable em issions reductions, and the em ission inventory indicates further em issions reductions between 2007 and 2024. Tennessee is petitioning EPA for redesignation of the Knoxville 8-hour ozone N onattainm e nt area to attainm e nt based on an attaining three-year design value for the period 2007-2009.

51