1 |EnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyeere.energy.gov[INSERTPICTURE(S)OFPRODUCT(S)][INSERTPICTURE(S)OFPRODUCT(S)]EnergyConservationStandards:PreliminaryAnalysisforCommercialPackagedBoilersDecember9,2014JamesRabaDepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesOfficeEERE‐2013‐BT‐STD‐0030PkgdBoilers2013STD0030@ee.doe.gov2Welcome•Introductions(aroundtheroom)•RoleoftheFacilitator•“Norms”–Speakoneatatime.–Sayyournamefortherecord– therewillbeacompletetranscriptofthismeeting.–Beconcise– sharethe‘air‐time’.–Keepthefocushere– cellphonesonsilent;limitsidebarconversations.–Webinarparticipantsturnphoneonmute;“raiseyourhand”toberecognizedtospeak.3PurposeofthePublicMeeting•Topresentmethodologiesandcharacterizeresultsforanalysestodate.•Todiscussspecificissuesrelatedtoeachanalysis•Toseekinputfromattendeesonmethodologies,assumptionsanddatasources.•Todescribeupcominganalysesandnextsteps4Agenda9:00am– 9:15am Welcome;Introductions andAgendaReview9:15am– 9:45am PurposeofPublicMeeting;OpeningStatements;CommentSubmissionInstructions;andRegulatoryAuthorityandRulemakingOverview9:45am– 10:15am MarketandTechnologyAssessmentandScreeningAnalysis10:15am– 10:45am Engineering Analysis10:45am– 11:00am Break11:00am– 12:00pm Markups;EnergyUseCharacterizationandLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysis12:00pm– 1:00pm Lunch(onyourown)1:00pm– 1:30pm LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysis(cont.)1:30pm– 2:15pm NationalImpactAnalysis2:15pm– 2:30pm Break2:30pm– 2:45pm PreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis2:45pm– 3:15pmNextSteps3:15pm– 3:30pm ClosingRemarksfromInterestedPartiesandAdjournment5HousekeepingItems– ListeningViatheWebcast•TheDepartmentofEnergyisbroadcastingthispublicmeeting“live”overtheInternetforinterestedpartieswhoareunabletoattendinperson.•Allinterestedpartiesareencouragedtosubmitwrittencommentsafterthepublicmeeting.6OpeningRemarksMeetingparticipantsareinvitedtoprovideopeningremarksorstatementsatthistime.7IssueboxescorrespondtothelistofissuespublishedattheendoftheNOPRdocument,availableat:http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE‐2013‐BT‐STD‐0030ThedeadlineforsubmittingcommentsisJanuary20,2015.IssuesforDiscussionIssue Box: DOE welcomes comments, data, andinformation concerning its proposed test proceduresfor commercial packaged boilers.Whether invited by an issue box or not, commentsare welcome on any part of DOE’s analysis.8HowtoSubmitComments•Inallcorrespondence,pleaseincludeallofthefollowing:oEnergyConservationStandardsforCommercialPackagedBoilersoDocketNumber:EERE‐2013‐BT‐STD‐0030oRegulatoryIdentificationNumber(RIN):1904‐AD01•ContactInformationEmail:PkgdBoilers2013STD0030@ee.doe.govPostalMail:Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgramMailstopEE‐5B1000IndependenceAvenue,SWWashington,DC20585‐0121Courier:Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgramL’EnfantPlaza,SW,Suite 600Washington,DC20024Telephone:(202)586‐29459PublicMeetingSlidesTopicsMarkups,EnergyUseCharacterization,LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysis43EngineeringAnalysis1IntroductionandOverview2MarketandTechnologyAssessmentandScreeningAnalysisShipmentsandNationalImpactAnalysis5PreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis6NextSteps710RegulatoryAuthority•EnergyPolicyandConservationAct(EPCA)of1975(P.L.94‐163)–EstablishedtheEnergyConservationProgramforCertainCommercialandIndustrialEquipment•EnergyPolicyActof1992(EPACT1992),(P.L.102−486)amendedEPCAtoaddcommercialpackagedboilersasatypeofcoveredequipment.(42U.S.C.6311(1)(J)and(11)(B))•EPCAdirectsDOEtoconsideramendingexistingFederalenergyconservationstandardsforcommercialpackagedboilerswhenevertheAmericanSocietyofHeating,Refrigerating,andAir‐ConditioningEngineers(ASHRAE)amendstheefficiencylevelsinStandard90.1.(42U.S.C.6313(a)(6))•EnergyIndependenceandSecurityActof2007(EISA2007)(P.L.110‐140)andtheAmericanEnergyManufacturingTechnicalCorrectionsAct(AEMTCA)(P.L.112‐210)amendedEPCAtorequirethatevery6years,theSecretarypublisheither:–Anoticeofthedeterminationthatstandardsfortheproductdonotneedtobeamended;or–Anoticeofproposedrulemakingincludingnewproposedstandards(42U.S.C.6313(6)(C)(i))•DOElastpublishedafinalruleforCPBin2009(74FR36312(July22,2009)).11RulemakingOverview– Definitions•EPCAdefines“packagedboiler”as:–“aboilerthatisshippedcompletewithheatingequipment,mechanicaldraftequipment,andautomaticcontrols;usuallyshippedinoneormoresections.”(42U.S.C.6311(11)(B))•DOEfurtherdefinescommercialpackagedboilerin10CFR431.82as:–“commercialpackagedboiler”asatypeofpackagedlowpressureboilerthatisindustrialequipmentwithacapacity,(ratedmaximuminput)of300,000Btu/hormorewhich,toanysignificantextent,isdistributedincommerce:(1)Forheatingorspaceconditioningapplicationsinbuildings;or(2)Forservicewaterheatinginbuildingsbutdoesnotmeetthedefinitionofa‘hotwatersupplyboiler’in[part431].–packagedlowpressureboiler isdefinedas“apackagedboilerthatis:(1)Asteamboilerdesignedtooperateatorbelowasteampressureof15psig[poundspersquareinchgauge];or(2)Ahotwaterboilerdesignedtooperateatorbelowawaterpressureof160psigandatemperatureof250°F;or(3)Aboilerthatisdesignedtobecapableofsupplyingeithersteamorhotwater,anddesignedtooperateundertheconditionsinparagraphs(1)and(2)ofthisdefinition.”(10CFR431.82)12RulemakingOverview– CurrentEnergyEfficiencyStandards*EffectiveMarch2,2022,energyconservationstandardwillbeincreasedtoaThermalEfficiencyof79%Equipmenttype Subcategory Sizecategory(input)EfficiencylevelEffectiveDateHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoilersGas‐fired≥300,000Btu/hand≤2,500,000Btu/h80.0%ETMarch2,2012HotWaterCommercialPackagedBoilersGas‐fired >2,500,000Btu/h 82.0%ECMarch2,2012HotWaterCommercialPackagedBoilersOil‐fired≥300,000Btu/hand≤2,500,000Btu/h82.0%ETMarch2,2012HotWaterCommercialPackagedBoilersOil‐fired >2,500,000Btu/h 84.0%EcMarch2,2012SteamCommercialPackagedBoilersGas‐fired—all,exceptnaturaldraft≥300,000Btu/hand≤2,500,000Btu/h79.0%ETMarch2,2012SteamCommercialPackagedBoilersGas‐fired—all,exceptnaturaldraft>2,500,000Btu/h 79.0%ETMarch2,2012SteamCommercialPackagedBoilersGas‐fired—naturaldraft≥300,000Btu/hand≤2,500,000Btu/h77.0%ETMarch2,2012*SteamCommercialPackagedBoilersGas‐fired—naturaldraft>2,500,000Btu/h 77.0%ETMarch2,2012*SteamCommercialPackagedBoilersOil‐fired≥300,000Btu/hand≤2,500,000Btu/h81.0%ETMarch2,2012SteamCommercialPackagedBoilersOil‐fired >2,500,000Btu/h 81.0%ETMarch2,201213RulemakingOverview– CurrentProcess•DOEisconsideringrevisionstotheenergyconservationstandardsforcommercialpackagedboilersundersubpartEof10CFRPart431.•NoticeofPublicMeetingandAvailabilityoftheFrameworkDocumentPublishedonSeptember3,2013.–FrameworkDocumentpublicmeetingwasheldOctober1,2013.•NoticeofPublicMeetingandAvailabilityofthePreliminaryTechnicalSupportDocumentpublishedonNovember20,2014.–ThestandardspreliminaryanalysiscommentperiodendsJanuary20,2015.•PreliminaryanalysisbasedontestprocedureundersubpartEof10CFRPart431–DOEisconductingarulemakingtoupdatetheexistingtestproceduresforcommercialpackagedboilers.•DOEisconductingacoveragedeterminationfornaturaldraftCPBs.Seehttp://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/product.aspx/productid/7414RulemakingOverview– TimelineMilestone DatePreliminaryAnalysisPublication November20,2014PreliminaryAnalysisPublicMeetingDecember9,2014CommentPeriodEndsJanuary20,2015NOPRPublication(projected) July,2015FinalRulePublication(projected) July,20162013201620142015 2017201820192020Energy ConservationStandards Timeline15TheEnergyPolicyandConservationAct(EPCA)directsDOEtoconsidersevenfactorswhensettingenergyconservationstandards.Factor AnalysisEconomicimpactonconsumersandmanufacturersLife‐cyclecostanalysisManufacturerimpactanalysisLifetimeoperatingcostsavingsLife‐cyclecostanalysisTotalprojectedenergysavingsNationalimpactanalysisImpactonutilityorperformanceScreeninganalysisEngineeringanalysisImpactofanylesseningofcompetitionManufacturerimpactanalysisNeedfornationalenergyconservationNationalimpactanalysisOtherfactorstheSecretaryconsidersrelevantEnvironmentalassessment;Utilityimpactanalysis;EmploymentimpactanalysisRulemakingOverview‐Analyses16FrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryAnalysisNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateSteps for the Standards Rulemaking: PreliminaryActivities and AnalysesShipmentsAnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpact AnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterizationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterizationRulemakingOverview– PreliminaryAnalysis17PublicMeetingSlidesTopicsMarkups,EnergyUseCharacterization,LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysis43EngineeringAnalysis1IntroductionandOverview2MarketandTechnologyAssessmentandScreeningAnalysisShipmentsandNationalImpactAnalysis5PreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis6NextSteps718RulemakingOverview‐Market&TechnologyAssessmentFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateShipmentsAnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpact AnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterizationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterizationSteps for the Standards Rulemaking: PreliminaryActivities and Analyses19M&TA– PurposeandIntroductionCommercialPackagedBoilerEquipmentClasses†Mechanical Draft NaturalDraftSmallGas‐FiredHotWater SmallGas‐FiredHotWaterSmallGas‐Fired Steam SmallGas‐Fired SteamSmallOil‐FiredHot Water SmallOil‐FiredHot WaterSmallOil‐FiredSteamSmallOil‐FiredSteamLargeGas‐Fired HotWater LargeGas‐Fired HotWaterLargeGas‐Fired Steam Large Gas‐Fired SteamLarge Oil‐FiredHotWater LargeOil‐FiredHotWaterLargeOil‐FiredSteam LargeOil‐FiredSteam†Small≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr andLarge>2,500,000Btu/hrPurpose:•Defineequipmentclasses•CharacterizetheCPBindustry•Identifyexistingregulatoryandvoluntaryenergyefficiencyprograms•Gatherrelevantmarketdata•Analyzemarketdata•Identifytechnologyoptionsforimprovingefficiency20M&TA– Scope•Coversall“packagedlowpressure”boilers:–Havinginputcapacitygreaterthanorequalto300,000Btu/h;–Firedusinggas(naturalgasorpropane)oroil;–Capableofproducinghotwater,steamorboth;and–Thataremechanicalornaturaldraft•ElectricCPB’snotcoveredunderthescopeofthisrulemaking•DOEisconductingacoveragedeterminationtoclarifyitsauthoritytoregulatenaturaldraftCPBs.•Standbyandoffmodeenergyconservationstandardisnotincludedinthescope•Onlythermalandcombustionefficiencystandards•NoupperlimitofinputcapacitysetforregulatingCPBs21M&TA– SampleofMarketPerformanceData•SmallGas‐FiredMechanicalDraftHotWater768084889296100 300 - 400 400 - 500 500 - 600 600 - 700 700 - 800 800 - 900 900 - 1000 1000 - 1100 1100 - 1200 1200 - 1300 1300 - 1400 1400 - 1500 1500 - 1600 1600 - 1700 1700 - 1800 1800 - 1900 1900 - 2000 2000 - 2100 2100 - 2200 2200 - 2300 2300 - 2400 2400 - 2500

Average Thermal Efficiency [%]Input Rating Category [kBtu/h]Average Thermal Efficiency Based on Input RatingOverall thermal efficiencyCondensing Boilers6%6%62%23%3%Distribution of Boilers Basedon Material of Primary HeatExchangerAluminumCast IronCopperStainlessSteelSteelTotal: 728030609012015018080 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Number of ModelsThermal Efficiency [%]Distribution of Boilers Based on Thermal EfficiencyOther BoilersCondensing BoilersCondensing and Modulating BoilersModulating Boilers22M&TA– TechnologyAssessmentOilGasFan/ Blower(Forced Draft)ValveAirMD NDWaterColdHotSingle stage orModulating burnersVent DamperInducer FanHeat Exchanger-Multiple designs-Single or multiplepass-Different MaterialsConvection and RadiationBasicoperationofCommercialPackagedBoilersPOil PumpWaterpumpAtomizer23M&TA– TechnologyAssessmentTechnologyOptionsConsideredtoImproveCombustionand/orThermalEfficiencyJacketInsulation OptimizationHeatExchangerImprovements:Condensingheat exchangerIncreaseinheatexchangersurfaceareaIncorporationofheatexchangersurfacefeaturesandinternalfeaturesFlat,wavyorlouveredfinnedHXwithorwithoutstaggeredfinconfigurationBurner DeratingCombustionAirPreheatersEconomizersBlow‐downWasteHeatRecoveryPremix BurnerPulseCombustionLowPressure,AirAtomizedOil BurnerIntegrated,HighEfficiencySteamBoilers24Market&TechnologyAssessment– IssuesforCommentIssue #1: DOE seeks comment on its tentative decision not to setan upper input capacity limit for CPBIssue #2: DOE seeks comment on the appropriateness of itstentative decision to classify CPBs into 16 equipment classes25ScreeningAnalysisFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateSteps for the Standards Rulemaking:Preliminary Activities and AnalysesShipmentsAnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpact AnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterizationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterization26ScreeningAnalysis•Purpose:ScreenouttechnologyoptionsthatDOEwillnotconsiderintheengineeringanalysisanddownstreamanalysesforcommercialpackagedboilers.•ApproachDOEevaluateseachtechnologyoptionbasedonthefollowingcriteria,asprovidedat10CFRPart430,SubpartC,AppendixA,section4(a)(4)(i)‐(iv)–Technologicalfeasibility–Practicabilitytomanufacture,install,andservice–Adverseeffectsonequipmentutilityoravailability–Adverseeffectsonhealthandsafety27ScreeningAnalysis– SummaryofResults•Heatexchangerimprovement:−Condensingandsecondaryheatexchanger−Outsidesurfaceenhancement:Micro‐fin,dimplesandothersurfaceenhancement−Internalsurfaceenhancement:Turbulators,corrugation,rifling,baffles−Improvementinfindesign:Wavyorlouveredfindesigns•Premixburners•Pulsecombustion•Lowpressure,airatomizedburnerPassedScreeningTest•BurnerderatingFailedScreeningTest•Jacketinsulationoptimization•Combustionairpreheaters•Economizers•Integrated,highefficiencysteamboilers•BlowdownwasteheatrecoveryPassedTest– ButNotConsidered28ScreeningAnalysis– IssuesforCommentIssue #3: DOE is interested inviews about the technological andeconomic feasibility of the technology options which successfullypassed the screening analysis.29PublicMeetingSlidesTopicsMarkups,EnergyUseCharacterization,LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysis43EngineeringAnalysis1IntroductionandOverview2MarketandTechnologyAssessmentandScreeningAnalysisShipmentsandNationalImpactAnalysis5PreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis6NextSteps730EngineeringAnalysisFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateSteps for the Standards Rulemaking:Preliminary Activities and AnalysesShipmentsAnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpact AnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterizationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterization31EngineeringAnalysis– Introduction•Purpose:Establishrelationshipbetweenequipmentpriceandincreasedefficiency.•Resultsarenotrepresentativeofa particularmanufacturerinsteadrepresentanindustryaggregate•Resultswillbeusedforotherdownstreamanalysese.g.,LCCanalysis,Paybackperiodetc.•SourcesofInformation:–Productliterature–Tradeassociationdatabases–Manufacturerinterviews–Listpricesfrommanufacturersandcontractors• Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Period Analysis• National Impacts Analysis• Shipments Analysis• Manufacturer ImpactAnalysisDownstreamAnalysesPriceEfficiencyCurves

Manufacturer Selling Price [$]Efficiency [%]32EngineeringAnalysis– StepsDevelopBaseline• Definebaselineefficiencyforeachequipmentclass• BaselinesdefinedbasedonexistingenergyconservationstandardsEstablishEfficiencyLevels• Identifyefficiencylevelsbetweenbaselineandmaximum(max‐tech)efficiencylevels• Selectedefficiencylevelsaremostcommononmarketand/orcapturesignificanttechnologiesCalculateIncrementalPrices• Incrementalpricesforincreasedefficiencyarecalculatedfromequipmentpriceinformation• StatisticalandregressionmodelingtechniquesareusedtoinferpricesifnotavailableandaggregatedataGeneratePriceEfficiencyCurves• Industryaveragerepresentationofincrementalchangeinequipmentpriceforachievinghigherefficiencylevels33EngineeringAnalysis– BaselineModels•Baselineefficiencylevelschosenthatcorrespondtoexistingenergyconservationstandards•Commontechnologiesinbaselinemodels:•BaselineEfficiencies:80%ETSGNDHW82%ECLGNDHW82%ETSONDHW84%ECLONDHW77%ETSGNDST77%ETLGNDST81%ETSONDST81%ETLONDST80%ETSGMDHW82%ECLGMDHW82%ETSOMDHW84%ECLOMDHW79%ETSGMDST79%ETLGMDST81%ETSOMDST81%ETLOMDSTGasValve– singlestagePrimaryHeatExchangerCastironsectional,copper‐fintube,watertube,firetube,carbonsteelJacketInsulationNaturalDraftEquipmentClassMechanicalDraftEquipmentClass•ET: Thermal Efficiency and EC: Combustion Efficiency•S: Small; L: Large•G: Gas (Natural or Propane) ; O: Oil•MD: Mechanical Draft; ND: Natural Draft;•HW: Hot Water; ST: Steam34EngineeringAnalysis– EfficiencyLevels•Efficiencylevelsidentifiedbasedonliteraturereview,manufacturerinterviewsandtechnologyassessment•Condensingefficiencylevelsconsideredforsmallandlargemechanicaldrafthotwaterequipmentclasses•“Max– Tech”efficiencylevels– highestefficiencylevelthatiscommerciallyavailable81%82%85%SGNDHW83%84%LGNDHW83%85%87%SONDHW85%86%LONDHW79%80%SGNDST79%80%81%LGNDST82%83%SONDST82%83%85%LONDSTNaturalDraftEquipmentClass83%85%87%92%95%98%SGMDHW84%86%94%97%LGMDHW83%84%87%98%SOMDHW86%88%97%LOMDHW80%81%83%SGMDST80%83%LGMDST83%84%86%SOMDST83%86%LOMDSTMechanicalDraftEquipmentClassCondensingEfficiencyLevels35EngineeringAnalysis– DataCollection•DOEcollectedlistpricesfromcontractorsandmanufacturers•Pricesarewhatmanufacturersellstheequipmenttothefirstcustomerfor•Priceswerespreadoverarangeofinputcapacities,howeveranalysispriceswerecalculatedatasingleinputcapacity•Thisisreferredtoasthe“representativeinputcapacity”and isusedtodefineasingleinputratingthatcharacterizestheentireequipmentclassLarge(>2,500kBtu/h)EquipmentClassSmall(300kBtu/hto2,500kBtu/h)EquipmentClassRepresentativeInputCapacity800kBtu/h3,000kBtu/h96%4%Comparison of Prices ReceivedMechanical DraftNatural Draft36EngineeringAnalysis– Methodology•Basedonthepricesreceived,DOEhasdividedthemethodologyinto5sections.MethodologiesUsedGeneralApproachNonCondensingSGMDHWandLGMDHWNonCondensingSOMDHWandLOMDHWSGMDSTSOMDSTLGMDSTandLOMDSTCondensingSGMDHWandLGMDHWCondensingSOMDHWandLOMDHWAllNaturalDraftEquipmentClasses37EngineeringAnalysis– GeneralApproachMethodology•Somelowefficiencyboilermodels hadsellingpriceshigherthanhighefficiencymodels;possiblyduetoadditionalfeaturesthatdon’tcontributetoefficiencyStep1:EquipmentClassesGroupboilerswithpricesintoequipmentclassesStep2:EfficiencyLevelsDeterminerelevantefficiencylevelsStep3:RepresentativeCapacityPickboilersatrepresentativecapacity,useregressionifrequiredStep4:BaselinePriceDetermineorCalculateusingregression,pricesofboilersatbaselineefficiencylevelsattherep.capacityStep5:IncrementalPriceForeachmanuf.calculateincrementalpriceInc.priceatXXeff.level=PriceatXX– BaselinePriceStep6:Price‐EfficiencyCurvesTakeaverageofincrementalpricesfromallmanuf.foreacheff.levelGenerateincrementalprice– efficiencyrelationship.38EngineeringAnalysis–LGMDSTandLOMDSTMethodology•DOEtookratioofincrementalpricesofLGMDHWandSGMDHW•UsingthisratioandSGMDSTandSOMDSTincrementalprices,DOEcalculatedpricesforLGMDSTandLOMDSTEfficiencyLevel(EL)[%]IncrementalPrice[$]LGMDHW(L)IncrementalPrice[$]SGMDHW(S)Ratio[S/L]82% BaselineEfficiency83% 2,0756120.384% 4,3431,2710.385% 6,8221,9810.386% 9,5332,7450.387% 12,4963,5680.388% 15,7364,4540.389% 19,2775,4080.3EfficiencyLevel(EL)[%]IncrementalPrice[$]SGMDST(S’)AverageRatio[S/L]IncrementalPrice[$]LGMDST(S’/Avg.Ratio)79% BaselineEfficiency80% 1,0600.3 3,53481% 2,2430.3 7,47582% 3,5600.3 11,86683% 5,0250.3 16,75084% 6,6530.3 22,176࢏࢏ࢎࢉࢋ࢚࢞ࢇ࢓ࡸࡱୀ࢏૚39EngineeringAnalysis–CondensingSGMDHWandLGMDHWMethodology•Forsmallandlargegas‐firedhotwatercondensingboilersDOEusedthemethodologysimilartocorrespondingnon‐condensingmodelsbutwithanaddedstep•DOEgroupedcondensingboilerpricesbasedonmaterialtype•Incrementalpriceiscalculatedforeachmaterialtype•Finalprice– efficiencycurveiscalculatedbytakingtheaverageforincrementalpriceforeachefficiencylevelEfficiencyLevel[%]A[$]B[$]C[$]80% X1Y1Z181% X2Y2Z282% X3Y3Z383% X4Y4Z4EfficiencyLevel[%]Mat 1. Mat2.80% P1=Avg.(X1,Y1) Z181% P2=Avg.(X2,Y2) Z282% P3=Avg.(X3,Y3) Z383% P4=Avg.(X4,Y4) Z4EfficiencyLevel[%]Inc.Price80% Avg.(P1‐P1,Z1‐Z1)81% Avg.(P2‐P1,Z2‐Z1)82% Avg.(P3‐P1,Z3‐Z1)83% Avg.(P4‐P1,Z4‐Z1)40EngineeringAnalysis–CondensingSOMDHWandLOMDHWMethodologyThermal Efficiency [%]

Incremental Price [$]SNC:SlopeNCSC:SlopeCThermal Efficiency [%]

] $ [Price IncrementalS2:SlopeCS1:SlopeNC࢕࢏࢚ࢇࡾ .ࢋ࢖࢕࢒ࡿ .ࢍ࢜࡭ൌ ࡾࡿࡿ࡯ࡺࡿ࡯ࡿ૛ൌࡿ૚ࡾࡿ•DOEdidnothavesufficientpricedataforoil‐firedcondensingboilermodelsinSOMDHWandLOMDHWequipmentclasses.•Asaresult,DOEinferredpricesforcondensingefficiencylevelsbasedonotherequipmentclasses•DOEusedtheratioofslopeoftheincrementalprice–efficiencycurveofnon‐condensingandcondensingefficiencylevelsofgas‐firedequipmentclass41EngineeringAnalysis–NaturalDraftEquipmentClassesMethodology•DOEdidnotreceivesufficientpricesfornaturaldraftequipmentclasses•DOEcomparedpricedataforsimilarmechanicalandnaturaldraftsystemstoestimatethepriceofremovingmechanicaldraftcomponentsfromaboilerandreplacingthemwithnaturaldraftcomponents(“pricedifferential”)•Thispricedifferentialissubtractedfrommechanicaldraftboilerpricesofappropriateequipmentclasstoderivenaturaldraftprices•NaturaldraftboilerincrementalclassesarecalculatedbysubtractingthepriceofhigherefficiencyboilersfrombaselineineachequipmentclassMechanicalDraftAssembly(Inducerassembly,Sensors,FlueCollector,VentConnectoretc.)NaturalDraftAssembly(Ventdamper,Drafthood,Sensorsetc.)PriceDifferentialNaturaldraftincrementalpricesMechanicaldraftincrementalpricesPriceDifferential42EngineeringAnalysis– SummaryofMethodologyTosummarizethemethodologiesadopted:•Methodologywaschosenbasedonfactorssuchasavailabilityofprices,numberofmanufacturersandtypeofequipmentclassetc.•IfDOEisnotabletocalculateincrementalpricesdirectlyfromavailablepricedata,otherstatisticalmethodsareusedEquipment Class TypeofBoiler Type ofAnalysisSGMDHWNonCondensing“Generalapproach”– groupintoequipmentclasses,calculatepriceatrep.capacity,calculateincrementalprices,takeaverage,generateprice–efficiencycurveCondensingSimilartonon‐condensinganalysis,additionalsteptogrouppricesbasedonmaterialtype,calculateincrementalpriceforeachgroup,takeaverageofincrementalpricesforeachefficiencylevel.LGMDHWNonCondensingGeneralapproach– groupintoequipmentclasses,calculatepriceatrep.capacity,calculateincrementalprices,takeaverage,generateprice–efficiencycurveCondensingSimilartonon‐condensinganalysis,additionalsteptogrouppricesbasedonmaterialtype,calculateincrementalpriceforeachgroup,takeaverageofincrementalpricesforeachefficiencylevel.43EngineeringAnalysis– SummaryofMethodologyEquipment Class TypeofBoiler Type ofAnalysisSOMDHW NonCondensing Generalapproach– SimilartoSGMDHW,non‐condensinganalysisSOMDHWCondensingUsedsloperatiobetweencondensing andnoncondensingincrementalpricesofSGMDHWequipmentclassUsedthisratiotocalculatecondensingboilerincrementalpricesfromSOMDHWnon‐condensingincrementalpricesLOMDHWNonCondensing Generalapproach– SimilartoSGMDHW,non‐condensinganalysisCondensingUsedsloperatiobetweencondensing andnoncondensingincrementalpricesofSGMDHWequipmentclassUsedthisratiotocalculatecondensingboilerincrementalpricesfromLOMDHWnon‐condensingincrementalpricesSGMDST NonCondensing Generalapproach– SimilartoSGMDHW,non‐condensinganalysisLGMDST NonCondensingUsedincrementalpriceratiobetweenSGMDHWandLGMDHWtoobtainrelationshipbetweenSGMDSTandLGMDSTSOMDST NonCondensing Generalapproach– SimilartoSGMDHW,non‐condensinganalysisLOMDST NonCondensingUsedincrementalpriceratiobetweenSGMDHWandLGMDHWtoobtainrelationshipbetweenSOMDSTandLOMDSTAllnaturaldraftequipmentclassesN/ACalculatedpriceofreplacingmechanicaldraftcomponentswithnaturaldraftcomponentsinaboilerUsedthispricedifferentialtocalculatenaturaldraftpricesbysubtractingthedifferentialfrommechanicaldraftprices44EngineeringAnalysis– SampleResults$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,00079% 84% 89% 94% 99%

Incremental Prices [$]ThermalEfficiency[%]SmallGas‐FiredMechanicalDraftHotWaterSmallGas‐firedHotWater,≥300,000Btu/hrand≤2,500,000Btu/hr$0$500$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,50077% 79% 81% 83% 85% 87%

Incremental Prices [$]ThermalEfficiency[%]SmallGas‐FiredNaturalDraftHotWaterSmallGas‐firedHotWater,≥300,000Btu/hrand≤2,500,000Btu/hrProductClass EfficiencyLevel IncrementalPrice BaselinePriceSmallGas‐firedMechanical draftHotWater,≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr80% $0$7,12083% $1,71085% $3,07887% $4,66592% $6,81995% $11,21198% $15,604SmallGas‐firedNaturaldraftHotWater,≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr80% $0$3,79981% $52982% $1,30785% $3,07845EngineeringAnalysis– IssuesforCommentIssue #4: DOE requests comment about the methodology used tocalculate incremental prices for increased efficiency for eachequipment class.DOE requests comment about the appropriateness of theincremental prices reported as part of the engineering analysischapter.DOE requests additional price-related information, especially fornatural draft boilers, which would further improve future analysesfor this rulemaking.46PublicMeetingSlidesTopicsMarkups,EnergyUseCharacterization,LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysis43EngineeringAnalysis1IntroductionandOverview2MarketandTechnologyAssessmentandScreeningAnalysisShipmentsandNationalImpactAnalysis5PreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis6NextSteps747FrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateSteps for the Standards Rulemaking:Preliminary Activities and AnalysesShipmentsAnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpact AnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterizationLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterization48MarkupsAnalysisPurpose:Themarkupsanalysisisusedtodeterminethecosttothecommercialconsumerof(1)baselineequipmentandof(2)moreefficientequipmentpurchasedundernewenergyconservationstandards.Markupsrelatecommercialconsumerpricetothemanufacturersellingprice(MSP),aka“costofgoodssold.”DOEcalculatedbothbaselineandincrementalmarkups:•BaselinemarkupsrelatebaselineefficiencyequipmentMSPtodirectbusinesscosts.•IncrementalmarkupsrelatetheincrementalchangeincommercialconsumerpricetotheincrementalchangeinMSPundernewenergyconservationstandards(e.g.,fixedcostssuchasoverheadandlabordonotscaleup).DistributionChannels:ThemarkupsdependonthetypeofdistributionchannelsthroughwhichproductsmovefrommanufacturerstoconsumersMarkupsweredevelopedforthefollowingmarketparticipants:Manufacturer,wholesaler,mechanicalcontractor,andgeneralcontractor.SalesTaxesandWholesalerandContractormarkupsweredevelopedforeachofthegeographicalareasintheanalysis.49Input MethodologyDistributionChannelsBasedonstakeholderinput,markupsweredevelopedforthefollowingmarkets:(1)Replacements and (2)NewConstruction. Seenextslide.ManufacturerMarkupDeterminedinengineeringanalysis(Ch.5),basedonU.S.SecurityandExchangeCommission(SEC)10‐Kreportsfrompublicly‐ownedcommercialpackagedboilermanufacturingcompanies.WholesalerMarkupBasedonfirmincomestatementsfromtheHARDI2013ProfitReport.MechanicalContractorMarkupBasedonACCA2005FinancialAnalysisreport andPlumbingandHVACContractorssectorfromthe2007EconomicCensus.GeneralContractorMarkupBasedonCommercialBuildingConstructionsectorfromthe2007EconomicCensus.SalesTaxBasedon2014SalesTaxClearinghouseData.MarkupsAnalysisMethodologyforCommercialPackaged Boilers50ReplacementDistributionChannelsforCommercialPackagedBoilersMarkupsAnalysisManufacturerWholesaler/Manufacturer’sRepresentativeMechanicalContractorCommercialConsumerManufacturerWholesaler/Manufacturer’sRepresentativeMechanicalContractorGeneralContractorCommercialConsumerManufacturerNationalAccountCommercialConsumerManufacturerNationalAccountCommercialConsumerNewConstruction51TotalMarkupsbyEquipmentClassMarkupsAnalysisEquipmentClassBaselineMarkupIncrementalMarkupNaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr3.04 1.99NaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr2.95 1.97NaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr3.24 2.04NaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr2.99 1.96MechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr3.35 2.07MechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr3.31 2.05MechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler≥300,000Btu/hrand≤2,500,000Btu/hr3.54 2.14MechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr3.16 2.0052Request for CommentMarkupsAnalysisIssue #5: DOE seeks comments about whether the considereddistribution channels are appropriate for commercial packagedboilers.Issue #6: DOE seeks comments about the percentage ofequipment being distributed through the different distributionchannels, and whether the share of equipment through eachchannel varies based on equipment class or equipment capacity.Issue #7: DOE requests comments about its proposed approach todeveloping estimates of future commercial packaged boiler retailprices.Issue #8: DOE requests recent data to establish the markups andcommercial consumer price for the parties involved with thedistribution of the equipment.53EnergyUseCharacterizationPurpose:Todeterminetheannualenergyconsumptionofcommercialpackagedboilersandtoassesstheenergysavingspotentialofincreasesinefficiency.Annualenergyconsumption: siteenergyuseassociatedwithoperatingtheequipment.Methodology:Thecommercialpackagedboilerannualenergyuseisequaltothesumoftheenergyusedbytheboilerforspaceheating,waterheating,andanyauxiliaryelectricalcomponents:ࢋ࢙ࢁ	࢟ࢍ࢘ࢋ࢔ࡱ࢒ࢇ࢚࢕࢚ࢋ࢙ࢁ࢒ࢋ࢛ࡲ ൌࡴࡿࢋ࢙ࢁ࢒ࢋ࢛ࡲ	൅ࡴࢃࢋ࢙ࢁࢉࢋ࢒ࡱ ൅࢒ࢇ࢚࢕࢚54EnergyUseCharacterization– BuildingSampleBuildingSample(CBECSandRECS)selectioncriteria:•usedaboilerasthemainorsecondarysourceofheat;•usedaheatingfuelthatisnaturalgasorfueloil;and•hadaheatingenergyconsumptiongreaterthanzero.55SpaceHeatingFuelConsumptionEnergyUseCharacterization56SpaceHeatingFuelConsumptionEnergyUseCharacterizationAnnualSpaceHeatingFuelConsumptionBurnerOperatingHours(BOH)BuildingHeatingLoad(BHL)ܳ ∗ ܪܱܤ ൌ ݁ݏܷ	݈݁ݑܨ	݈ܽݑ݊݊ܣ௡௜ൌ ܪܱܤܮܪܤܳ௜௡ൈ ܶܧ௔௥௧௘ௗ,௔ௗ௝ܮܪܤ ൌ ܧܷܵܧ஻஼ா஼ௌ∗ ܶܧ௘௫௜௦௧∗ ܣ݆݀௦௛௘௟௟∗ ܣ݆݀ு஽஽57•Conversionbetweencombustionefficiencyandthermalefficiency–BasedonAHRImodeldirectory•Thermalefficiencyvarieswith:–Returnwatertemperature–Cycling–Part‐load•CalculateaverageimpactforeachclimatezonebasedonweatherEnergyUseCharacterizationThermalEfficiencyAdjustments58WaterHeatingEnergyConsumptionEnergyUseCharacterization•Forbuildingsusinggasfuelforspaceheatingandwaterheating,itwasassumedthatin50%oftheseinstallationstheboilersarealsousedforwaterheating.AnnualWaterHeatingFuelConsumption–ܣ݆݀ݐݏݑ݉݁݊ݐ	ܨܽܿݎ݋ݐௐுaccountsforthedifferencebetweenTEandwaterheating(WH)efficiencyWaterHeatingLoad‒ 

ࡽࡾࢅ

,ࡴࢃisequaltotheannualfuelconsumptionforwaterheatingbasedonCBECS2003orRECS2009(kBtu/yr)ࢋ࢙ࢁ࢒ࢋ࢛ࡲࡴࢃൌࡸࡴࢃ࢐ࢊ࡭ െ ࡱࢀ࢘࢕࢚ࢉࢇࡲࡴࢃܹܮܪ ൌ ܳ௒ோ,ௐுൈ ሺܶܧ௘௫െ	ܣ݆݀ி௔௖௧௢௥ௐுሻ59ElectricityConsumptionEnergyUseCharacterizationBoilerElectricityConsumptionaccountsfortheelectricityusebycirculatingpump,draftinducer,igniter,andauxiliaryequipmentsuchascondensatepumps.AdjBOH=adjustmentfactorthattakesintoaccountpart‐loadoperation(forcondensingunitsonly)ElecPower=powerofelectricalcomponentsrequiredduringboileroperation,(kW)ElecBOHWH=hoursboilerprovideswaterheatingonlyStdbyPower=totalstandbypoweroftheequipmentStdbyHrs=standbyhours,takingintoaccountwaterheatingoperationduringsummerࢋ࢙ࢁࢉࢋ࢒ࡱ࢒ࢇ࢚࢕࢚ࡴࡻ࡮ ൌࡴࡿ࢐ࢊ࡭ ൈࡴࡻ࡮ࡴࡻ࡮ࢉࢋ࢒ࡱ ൅ ࢘ࢋ࢝࢕ࡼࢉࢋ࢒ࡱ ൈࡴࢃ࢘ࢋ࢝࢕ࡼࢉࢋ࢒ࡱ ൈ࢘ࢋ࢝࢕ࡼ࢟࢈ࢊ࢚ࡿ ൈ ࢙࢘ࡴ࢟࢈ࢊ࢚ࡿ൅60AverageAnnualEnergyConsumptionEL DesignOptionFuelUseMMBtu/yrElectricityUsekWh/yrNaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0 80%TE‐Baseline830 3421 81%TE820 3372 82%TE810 3333 85%TE‐MaxTech781 321NaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0 82%CE‐Baseline3826 8861 83%CE3772 8732 84%CE‐MaxTech3719 861MechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0 80%TE‐Baseline939 7461 83%TE904 7202 85%TE882 7043 87%TE861 6894 92%TE824 9905 95%TE797 9606 98%TE‐MaxTech772 931MechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterCommercialPackagedBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0 82%CE‐Baseline3699 13061 84%CE3596 12712 86%CE3499 12383 94%CE3182 16624 97%CE‐MaxTech3069 1605EnergyUseCharacterization61EnergyUseCharacterizationRequestforCommentIssue #9: DOE seeks data on representative annualprofiles of return water temperature, supply watertemperature, and boiler percent loading.Issue #10: DOE seeks data on what return watertemperatures boilers are tested at under the testconditions prescribed by the DOE test procedure.Issue #11: DOE seeks input on data sources that itcan use to characterize the variability in annualenergy consumption for commercial packagedboilers. DOE is particularly interested in fieldmonitoring studies and data.62EnergyUseCharacterizationRequestforCommentIssue #12: DOE requests data about typical boiler sizing practices:●How often are multiple boilers are installed, instead of a singleboiler, to meet the building heating load?●How are the number of boilers determined for a particular typeof building installation?Issue #13: DOE seeks input about how boilers are controlled,particularly in multiple-boiler installations.Issue #14: DOE seeks historical shipment-weighted commercialpackaged boiler efficiency data and/or shipment data by efficiencybins. DOE is primarily interestedin data during the last 10 years tocapture the impact of the most current technologies on the boilersmarket.63EnergyUseCharacterizationRequestforCommentIssue #15: DOE requests input about the electricityuse by commercial boilers that is in addition to thefuel energy use, and that should be included in theenergy use analysis.Issue #16: DOE seeks input on what fractions of hotwater commercial packaged boilers are used both forspace heating and water heating.64Purpose:LCCanalysisuseslife-cycle cost(LCC)andpayback period(PBP)todeterminetheeconomicimpactofboilerstandardsoncommercialconsumers.Methodology:•Life‐CycleCost(LCC)isusedtodeterminetotalcommercialconsumercostoverthelifeofaproduct.•PaybackPeriod(PBP)determinestheamountoftimeittakesconsumerstorecoverthepurchasepriceofmoreenergy‐efficientequipmentthroughreducedoperatingcosts.•TheanalysisusestheCrystalBall®add‐onforMSExceltomodeltheuncertaintyandvariabilityofinputsusingMonteCarloapproachandprobabilitydistributionsLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalyses65DevelopmentofLCCandPBPInputsLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesEngineeringAnalysisMarkupstoDetermineProductPriceEnergyUseCharacterizationBaselineManufacturerCostStd‐LevelManufacturerCostManufacturerMarkupDistributer&ContractorMarkupsSalesTaxEnergyConsumptionMarginalEnergyPricesConsumerPriceInstallationCostTotalInstalledCostAnnualEnergyCostRepairCostMaintenanceCostAnnualOperatingExpenseLifetimeDiscountRateEnergyPriceTrendLifetimeOperatingExpensePaybackPeriodLife‐CycleCost66LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesInstallationCostsInstallationCostsrepresentthelaborandmaterialcostsnecessarytoinstalltheappliance.KeyComponentsofinstallationcostmodel:•Basicinstallationcosts•Venting•CondensateremovalforcondensingboilersSources:•2013RSMeans(MechanicalCostData)•Manufacturerliterature•Informationfromexperts67Basicinstallationcostsinclude:•Placingandsettingupboiler•Connectinggaspiping•Connectingwaterpiping•Permitandremoval/disposalfeesLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesBasicInstallationCosts68Boilertechnologytype–Non‐condensing:typicallyCategoryIventing•Considerations:High‐temperaturefluegas,whichheatstheinsideoftheventabovethedewpointtoensurethatwatervaporinthefluegasdoesnotcondense•Replacements:Relineunlinedchimney,resizeexistingvent,reuseexistingvent,orreplacevent•Material:TypeB(naturaldraft)orstainlesssteel(mechanicaldraft)–Condensing:CategoryIVventing•Considerations:Watervaporinfluecondenses,sothefluemustresistcorrosion•Replacements:Reuseexistingstainlesssteelventorreplacevent•Material:Plastic(≤6”diameter)orstainlesssteel(>6”diameter)•CombustionairdirectventCostfactors:installationtype,assumedexistingventingmaterialinreplacementboilerinstallations,andnewventmaterialLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesVenting69•Condensatepipe:Excesscondensatemustbedepositedinadrain.•Condensatepump:Ifadrainisnotneartheboiler,thenthecondensatemustbepumpedtoaremotedrain.•Condensateneutralizer:Neutralizescondensatebeforepouringintodrain.•Additionalelectricaloutlet:Someinstallationswithacondensatepumpalsorequireanadditionalelectricityoutlet.LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesCondensing Boilers: Condensate RemovalInstallationCostDescriptionCriteriaFrequencyofapplyingcriteriaPipe Allinstallations 100%Pump Allinstallations 25%Neutralizer Allinstallations 12.5%ElectricalOutlet(additional)Fraction ofinstallationsrequiringapump50%70LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesRequestforCommentIssue #22: DOE seeks input on how often plasticversus stainless steel venting is installed forcondensing boilers.Issue #23: DOE seeks input on how often boilershave direct venting, for both condensing and noncondensing boilers.Issue #24: DOE seeks input on the fraction ofstainless steel venting in existing boiler installationsby efficiency.Issue #21: DOE requests data on the fractions ofinstallations that would entail significant additionalinstallation expenses.71LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesRequestforCommentIssue #26: DOE seeks data on how often “commonventing” occurs in multiple-boiler installations; andwhether commercial water heaters are commonlyvented with commercial boilers.Issue #25: DOE seeks input on where boilers aretypically located within different types of buildingsand where the vents typically terminate.DOE is interested whether this changes bygeographic region or boiler type.72RepairandMaintenanceLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalyses•MaintenanceCost:Routinecosttotheconsumerofmaintainingequipment.•MaintenanceFrequency:•Steamboilersandoil‐firedboilers:basedonRSMeans•Gas‐firedhotwaterboilers:basedonCBECS/RECSsurveydata•LaborHours/Cost:Basedon2013RSMeansFacilityRepairandMaintenance•Separateforsteamvshotwaterandsmallvslarge.•MaterialCost:Basedon2013RSMeans.Condensateneutralizerforcondensingboilers.•Assumesmaintenancecostisthesamewithineachequipmentclass.Assumesmaintenancecostforcondensingboilersishigher.•RepairCost:Costofreplacingorrepairingcomponentsintheboilerthathavefailed.•LaborHours/Cost:Basedon2013RSMeansFacilityRepairandMaintenance•MaterialCost:BasedonengineeringanalysisandRSMeansComponentfailurerateRepairDescription MeanFailureYear RepairRateIgnition,Controls 7.0 50%VentDamperorPowerVentBlower 15.0 35%HeatExchanger 20.0 17%73LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesRequestforCommentIssue #19: DOE seeks input on how often boiler maintenanceis performed by on-site staff versus external contractors,specifically for hot water boilers versus steam boilers andsmall boilers versus large boilersIssue #20: DOE seeks input as to howoften, in the event of aheat exchanger failure, the heat exchanger alone is replacedversus the entire boiler being replaced. DOE is interested inknowing whether this varies with equipment class or varieswith condensing versus non-condensing boilers.Issue #18: DOE requests comment on frequency and cost ofmaintenance, major repair issues, repair frequency, andrepair costs for commercial packaged boilers that meet theminimum efficiency standards, as well as for higherefficiency boilers74LifetimeLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalyses•Definition:Agewhenthecommercialboilerisretiredfromservice.•Methodology:Usedpublishedstudiesandtypicalappliancelifetimecharacteristicstocalculatethedistributionoflifetimes•Lifetimeassumed24.8yearspresentedasadistribution(sourcereferencesinAppendix8‐F)75LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesRequestforCommentIssue #28: DOE seeks data to predict boiler lifetime,particularly for non-condensing versus condensingboilersIssue #27: DOE requests comments about themethodology used to determine equipment lifetimesfor commercial packaged boilers76EnergyPricesLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalyses•Purpose:Developaveragemarginalmonthlypricesbygeographicalarea.•Methodology:Most‐currentaverageannualenergypricesbymonthlypricefactorsandmarginalpricefactors.•2012averageannualenergypricesbygeographicalareabasedon:‒ElectricityPrices:EIA’s2013Form826data‒NaturalGas:EIA’s2013NaturalGasNavigatormonthly‒Oil:EIA’s2012StateEnergyConsumption,Price,andExpendituresEstimates(SEDS)•Monthlyenergypricefactorsbygeographicalareabasedon:‒ElectricityPrices:EIA’s1993‐2012Form826monthlydata‒NaturalGas:EIA’s1993‐2012NaturalGasNavigatormonthlydata‒OilandLPG:EIA’s2009Short‐TermEnergyOutlook1995‐2009historicaldata•MarginalenergypricefactorsforelectricityandnaturalgasbygeographicareasbasedonEIAdata.77EnergyPriceTrendsLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesExample:ProjectedCommercialNationalNaturalGasPrice•Methodology: 2012averagemonthlymarginalenergypricesbygeographicalareamultipliedtoprojectedannualenergypricetrendsforthecorrespondingcensusdivision–2019‐2040 trendsbasedonEIA’sAEO2014bycensusdivision–After2040 trendsbasedonFederalEnergyManagementProgram(FEMP)guidelines5.007.009.0011.0013.0015.002010 2020 2030 2040

2012$/MMBtu78DiscountRates:CommercialLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalyses•Definition:Usedtodeterminethepresentvalueoflifetimeoperatingexpenseswhenapieceofequipmentisretiredfromservice.•Methodology:Calculatedastheweightedaveragecostofcapital(WACC),usingtheCapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM)fordifferenteconomicsectors.•Primarydatasources:Damodaran OnlinedatabaseofcompanydebtandequityfinancingRequestforCommentIssue #29: DOE seeks comment about its plannedapproach for estimating discount rates for commercialconsumers.79BaseCaseEfficiencyDistributionLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesDefinition:Basecaseproductefficiencyassignmentreflectstheprojectedmarketshareofproductsatdifferentefficiencylevels.•Notallconsumerspurchaseproductsatcurrentminimumstandard.•LCCanalysisrecognizesthatconsumersalreadypurchasingproductsatefficienciesgreaterthanorequaltoaprospectivestandardlevelarenotimpactedbythestandard.Methodology:Projectedcommercialboilerefficiencymarketsharein2019foreachproductclassbasedontheshareofmodelsineachproductclassfromtrendsintheAHRIcertificationdirectoryfrom2007to2014.80RequestforCommentLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesIssue #30: DOE requests data on theefficiency distribution and on thelikelihood and degree of improvement in efficiency of commercial packagedboilers in the next 5 to 10 years, as aresult of market forces or industrytrends (in the absence of amended energy conservation standards).Issue #17: DOE requests data to characterize the current distribution ofcommercial packaged boiler efficiencies in the market.81LCCandPBPAnalysisResultsLCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysesExample:Gas‐FiredSmallHotWaterBoilers,MechanicalDraftEfficiencyLevelTEAverageCosts2013$LCCSavings($)PaybackyearsInstalledCost($)FirstYear’sOperatingCost($)LifetimeOperatingCost($)LCC($)0 80% 32,00311,261190,176222,180NANA1 83% 35,53010,907184,115219,64632510.02 85% 38,35310,685180,326218,68057911.03 87% 41,62610,474176,721218,34873812.24 92% 45,98310,161171,255217,2391,33312.75 95% 55,0449,887166,576221,621(1,612)16.86 98% 64,1049,631162,202226,307(6,018)19.782PublicMeetingAgendaMarkups,EnergyUseCharacterization,LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysis43EngineeringAnalysis1IntroductionandOverview2MarketandTechnologyAssessmentandScreeningAnalysisShipmentsandNationalImpactAnalysis5PreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis6NextSteps783FrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateSteps for the Standards Rulemaking:Preliminary Activities and AnalysesShipmentsAnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpact AnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterization84•ShipmentsAnalysis:–Estimatescommercialboilershipmentsoveranalysisperiod.•NationalImpactAnalysis:–EstimatestheNationalEnergySavings(NES)andnationaleconomicimpactoncommercialboilerconsumers(ortheNetPresentValue(NPV))fromcommercialboilerenergyconservationstandardsatdifferentefficiencylevels.PurposeNationalImpactAnalysis85ApproachShipmentsAnalysisPurpose:Forecastthecommercialboilersthatwouldbeexpectedtobeshippedbetween2019and2048,bothwithandwithoutenergyconservationstandards.MethodologyofShipmentsProjections:•Newconstructions:Newbuildingconstructionprojectionsmultipliedbynewconstructionmarketsaturations.•Replacements:Equipmentretirementfunctions(equipmentlifetimes)appliedtoequipmentstock.Equipmentstockisgeneratedwithhistoricalshipments.Demolishedunitsaredeductedfromrequiredreplacements.•NewOwners:Existingbuildingsthatacquireboilersforthefirsttime.Includesconsumersswitchingbetweenboilerproductclasses.Accountedforimpactofstandardsonshipmentsusingpriceelasticities.86ShipmentsModelInputsShipmentsAnalysisInputDefinition/SourceHistoricalAnnualShipments•Historicalshipmentsofcommercialpackagedboilersin2007reportedinthe2009commercialpackagedboilerfinalrule(usedresidentialboilershipmentstoextrapolatecommercialboilershipments)•AHRImodeldataforcommercialpackagedboilersfrom2007to2014RetirementFunctionBasedonlifetimedistributionShipmentstoNewConstructionNewconstructionmarketsaturationsmultipliedbyprojectednewbuildings•SaturationsfromCBECS2003andRECS2009•U.S.CensushistoricalbuildingstartsdataandEIA’sAEO2014projectionsNewOwnersandProductSwitchingProductclass switchingbasedontrendsinAHRIdatabasePriceElasticityBasedonapplianceshipmentsandhouseholdeconomicdataduringtheperiod(1980‐2002).SeeAppendix9‐A.870.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.0501960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Shipments (million)LOMDSTSOMDSTLGMDSTSGMDSTLOMDHWSOMDHWLGMDHWSGMDHWLONDSTSONDSTLGNDSTSGNDSTLONDHWSONDHWLGNDHWSGNDHWShipmentsAnalysisHistoricalandProjectedBaseCaseShipmentsbyEquipmentClassProjectedHistorical88ShipmentsAnalysisRequestforCommentIssue #31: DOE requests input on the shipmentsprojection methodology.Issue #32: DOE invites comments about the selectionof appropriate economic drivers and sources of datafor historical shipments and shipment-breakdownsby equipment class.Issue #33: DOE seeks historical commercialpackaged boiler shipments data, disaggregated byequipment class and efficiency level if available.Issue #34: DOE seeks input on the potential impact ofamended standards on commercial packaged boilershipments.89NationalImpactAnalysisPurpose:Estimatethenationalimpactsofenergyconservationstandardsforcommercialboilersshippedbetween2019and2048•NationalEnergySavings(NES):Primaryenergysavings•NetPresentValue(NPV):Differencebetweenthepresentvalueofannualenergyexpendituresandthepresentvalueofannualequipmentexpenditures.Methodology•Foreachproductclassineachstandardscase:1. Calculateper‐unitcostincreaseandper‐unitenergysavingsduetoastandard.2. Calculatenumberofunits(stock)inuseandenergysavingseachyearfrom2019to2048.3. CombinetheabovetodetermineNESandNPV.90NationalEnergySavingsNationalImpactAnalysisInputMethod/AssumptionsAnnualEnergyConsumptionperUnit(UEC)Derivedper‐unitannualenergyconsumptionasafunctionofproductefficiencyfromEnergy UseAnalysisforeachequipmentclass.ShipmentsProjectedshipmentsforeachequipmentclassunderthebasecaseandallstandardscases.EquipmentStockDeterminedtheyearlystockusingannualshipmentsandthelifetimeforeachequipmentclass.NationalAnnualEnergyConsumptionAnnualenergyconsumptionistheproductoftheUECandtheequipmentstock.ReboundEffectNoreboundeffectwasassumedintheanalysis.Site‐to‐SourceConversionFactorUsedforconvertingsiteenergyconsumptionintoprimaryorsourceenergyconsumption(fromEIA’sAEO2014/NEMS).FullFuelCycleCalculatedFFCenergysavingsusingaNEMS‐basedmethodology (fromEIA’sAEO2014/NEMS).NationalEnergySavings:Differenceinannualenergysavings(UECmultipliedbyequipmentstock)betweenbasecaseandeachstandardscaseandsummedovertheanalysisperiod.91NationalImpactAnalysisNetPresentValueInput Method/AssumptionsTotalInstalledCostPerUnit FunctionofproductefficiencyAnnualPer‐unitSavingsInOperationCostIncludescostsforenergy,repair,andmaintenance.Shipments Annualshipmentofboilers byequipmentclassesEquipmentStock DependsonshipmentsandlifetimeTotalAnnualIncreasesInInstalledCostIncreaseattributabletostandard,calculatedbyvintageTotalAnnualOperatingCost CalculatedbyvintageDiscountFactor Used3%and7%nationaldiscountratestodeterminepresentvalueoffuturemonetaryvalues•NetPresentValue:Differencebetweenthepresentvalueofenergycostsavingsandthepresentvalueoftotalinstalledcostincrease.•Presentvalueofcosts:Differenceininstalledcostbetweenbasecaseandeachstandardscasediscountedtothepresentandsummedovertheanalysisperiod•Presentvalueofsavings:Differenceinoperatingcostsavingsbetweenthebasecaseandeachstandardscasefrom2019tothetimewhenthelastunitisretired92•EfficiencyTrendin2019(Assumeda“roll‐up”scenariotoestablishtheefficiencydistribution):–Productefficienciesinthebasecasethatdidnotmeetthestandardunderconsiderationwould“rollup”tomeetthenewstandardlevel.–Allefficiencysharesinthebasecasethatwereabovethestandardunderconsiderationwouldnotbeaffected.•EfficiencyTrendAfter2019:–Condensingboilersareprojectedtoincreaselinearly,basedontrendsinAHRIdatabasebyproductclass–Sharesofcondensingefficiencylevelsarekeptwithinthesameproportionalrelationshipsasin2019–Sharesofnon‐condensingefficiencylevelsarekeptwithinthesameproportionalrelationshipsasin2019NationalImpactAnalysisProjectedEfficiencyTrends93NationalImpactAnalysisProjectedCondensingBoilerMarketShareTrends0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049

Condensing market shareSGMDHWLGMDHWSOMDHWLOMDHW94•DOEhaspublishedaNoticeofPolicy(NOP)statingitsintentiontoincorporatefull‐fuel‐cycle(FFC)metricsintothecost‐benefitanalysis.76FR51282(Aug.18,2011).•MethodologyisbasedonthecalculationofaFFCmultiplier,orconversionfactor,foreachoftheprimaryfuelsusedbytheproduct.•Forthispreliminaryanalysis,DOEcalculatedFFCenergysavingsusingaNEMS‐basedmethodology(describedinappendix10B).•PrimaryNESandtheFFCenergysavingsfortheconsideredefficiencylevelsreported(seeCh.10)FullFuelCycleAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysis95NationalImpactAnalysisPrimaryNationalEnergySavingsResults(quads)ProductClassEfficiencyLevels123456NaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.001 0.004 0.026 NA NA NANaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.010 0.023 NA NA NA NANaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.001 0.003 0.005 NA NA NANaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.005 0.012 NA NA NA NAMechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.023 0.052 0.105 0.207 0.332 0.524MechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.039 0.145 0.570 0.875 NA NAMechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.006 0.017 0.059 0.201 NA NAMechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.011 0.037 0.136 NA NA NA96NationalImpactAnalysisFull‐Fuel‐CycleNationalEnergySavingsResults(quads)ProductClassEfficiencyLevels123456NaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.001 0.005 0.029 NA NA NANaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.011 0.025 NA NA NA NANaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.001 0.004 0.006 NA NA NANaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.006 0.014 NA NA NA NAMechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.025 0.058 0.117 0.230 0.370 0.583MechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.044 0.161 0.634 0.975 NA NAMechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.007 0.020 0.069 0.235 NA NAMechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.013 0.044 0.159 NA NA NA97Discountedat3%(billion2013$)NationalImpactAnalysisNetPresentValueResultsProductClass3%EfficiencyLevels123456NaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.0040.0110.072NANANANaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.0360.079NANANANANaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.0090.0250.054NANANANaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.0570.144NANANANAMechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.0470.0880.1290.203(0.202) (0.908)MechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.0870.2670.5231.268NANAMechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.0520.1480.4870.323NANAMechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.1050.4060.650NANANA98Discountedat7%(billion2013$)NationalImpactAnalysisNetPresentValueResultsProductClass7%EfficiencyLevels123456NaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.0010.0030.019NANANANaturalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.0140.030NANANANANaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.0030.0070.016NANANANaturalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.0220.055NANANANAMechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.0070.006(0.016) (0.046) (0.358) (0.861)MechanicalDraftGas‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.0170.034(0.132) 0.035NANAMechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler≥300,000Btu/hr and≤2,500,000Btu/hr0.0130.0370.117(0.315) NANAMechanicalDraftOil‐FiredHotWaterBoiler>2,500,000Btu/hr0.0310.1310.025NANANA99PublicMeetingAgendaMarkups,EnergyUseCharacterization,LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysis43EngineeringAnalysis1IntroductionandOverview2MarketandTechnologyAssessmentandScreeningAnalysisShipmentsandNationalImpactAnalysis5PreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis6NextSteps7100FrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateSteps for the Standards Rulemaking: PreliminaryActivities and AnalysesShipmentsAnalysisPreliminaryManufacturerImpact AnalysisLife-CycleCost andPaybackPeriodAnalysesNationalImpactAnalysisMarket &TechnologyAssessmentScreeningAnalysisEngineeringAnalysisMarkups toDetermineProduct PriceEnergy UseCharacterization101PreliminaryMIA•Purpose–Themanufacturerimpactanalysis(MIA)identifiestheimpactsofenergyconservationstandardsonmanufacturers.•Phase1–DOEcreatesanindustryprofiletocharacterizetheindustryandidentifyimportantissuesthatrequireconsideration.•Phase2–DOEpreparesanindustrycash‐flowmodelandaninterviewquestionnairetoguidesubsequentdiscussions.•Phase3–DOEinterviewsmanufacturersandassessestheimpactsofstandardsbothquantitatively(usingtheGovernmentRegulatoryImpactModel)andqualitatively(impactsoncompetition,manufacturingcapacity,directemployment,andregulatoryburden).102PreliminaryMIA:KeyIssues•TestingBurden–AmendedstandardsandanalteredtestprocedurecouldrequireCPBmanufacturerstoretestallmodels,whichcouldstrainlabresourcesandbefinanciallyburdensome.–TestingiscostlyandlogisticallychallengingbecauseofthelargesizeofmostequipmentandthefactthatmanyCPBsarecustommanufactured.•NotManyAmericanCompaniesProduceCondensingHeatExchangersforGas‐FiredHotWaterEquipment–ManycompaniesintheUScurrentlyproducecondensingequipment,howevermostcondensingheatexchangersaresourcedfromEuropeanorAsiancompanies.–Astandardlevelthatnecessitatedcondensingtechnologycouldrequiremanufacturerstodecidewhethertocontinuetosourceheatexchangers,ordeveloptheirownproductioncapacity,whichcouldrequireinvestmentsinproductdevelopmentandnewcapitalequipment.103PreliminaryMIA:KeyIssues•SmallBusinessConcerns–DOEhaspreliminarilyidentified21smallbusinessCPBmanufacturers.–Smallbusinessmanufacturersmayhavefewerresources(e.g.engineering,testing,capital)toadapttoamendedstandards,relativetolargercompetitors.104IssuesforCommentIssue #32: DOE considers the impacts on certain manufacturersubgroups that have different cost structures or operate withindifferent regulatory frameworks in the NOPR stage.DOErequests feedback on subgroups to analyze and/orcharacteristics appropriate for subgroup analysis.Issue #33: DOE requests comment about its identification of keyissues, and requests data and information which would assist inevaluating the potential impact of energy efficiency standards onmanufacturers.Issue #31: DOE conducts a regulatory flexibility analysis thatexamines the impact on small entities and considers alternativeways of reducing negative impacts in the NOPR stage.DOEinvites comments and information about small businesses thatmanufacture CPBs and should be first be consulted before theNOPR is published.105PublicMeetingAgendaMarkups,EnergyUseCharacterization,LCCandPaybackPeriodAnalysis43EngineeringAnalysis1IntroductionandOverview2MarketandTechnologyAssessmentandScreeningAnalysisShipmentsandNationalImpactAnalysis5PreliminaryManufacturerImpactAnalysis6NextSteps7106FrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateNext Steps in the Standards Rulemaking: NOPRRevisePreliminaryAnalysesConsumerSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisEmissionsImpactAnalysisUtility ImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisRevisePreliminaryAnalysesConsumerSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisEmissionsImpactAnalysisUtility ImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysis107•Purpose:–Todevelopalistofpotentialamendedstandardlevelsfromwhichimpactsareweighedandaproposedstandardlevelisselected.•Eachtrialstandardlevelconsistsofasetofefficiencylevelscoveringallproductclasses,andmayvarybetweenproductclasses.•NOPRanalysesassessimpactsfortrialstandardlevels(notefficiencylevelsforeachproductclass).•Method:–Trialstandardlevelsareassembledfromtheequipmentclassesandefficiencylevelsidentifiedinthepreliminaryanalyses.•Trialstandardlevelscoverarangeofefficienciesandcaninclude:–Mostenergyefficientlevel(max‐tech);–Efficiencylevelwiththelowestlife‐cyclecost;–Efficiencylevelwithapaybackperiodofthreeyearsorless;–Efficiencylevelswithnoteworthytechnologies;and–Efficiencylevelsthatfillinlargegaps.TrialStandardLevelsSelectionofTrialStandardLevelsISSUE 34:DOE requests feedback on the criteria it should usefor basing the selection of Trial Standard Levels.108RevisePreliminaryAnalysesConsumerSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisEmissionsImpactAnalysisUtility ImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisRevisePreliminaryAnalysesConsumerSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisEmissionsImpactAnalysisUtility ImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateNext Steps in the Standards Rulemaking: NOPR109•Purpose:–Analyzetheeconomicimpactsofstandardsoncommercialconsumers,includingsubgroupswhomaybedisproportionatelyimpactedcomparedwiththegeneraluserpopulation.•Method:–RefinetheLCCanalysistoexaminetheimpactsfordefinedsubgroups.ConsumerSubgroupAnalysisOverviewISSUE 35: DOE requests input as to which consumersubgroups, if any, it should consider when developingstandards for commercial packaged boilers.110FrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateFrameworkDocumentPreliminaryActivitiesNOPRFinalRuleEffectiveDateNext Steps in the Standards Rulemaking: NOPRRevisePreliminaryAnalysesConsumerSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisEmissionsImpactAnalysisUtility ImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysisRevisePreliminaryAnalysesConsumerSubgroupAnalysisManufacturerImpactAnalysisEmissionsImpactAnalysisUtility ImpactAnalysisEmploymentImpactAnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysis111•Purpose:–Estimateemissionsimpactsfromamendedenergyconservationstandardsforcommercialpackagedboilers,includingchangesinfull‐fuelcycle(FFC)emissions.•Method:–DOEwillbasetheemissionfactorsforFFConEIA’sAEO,supplementedbydatafromothersources.–DOEestimatesthereductioninpowersectorandsitecombustionemissionsofcarbondioxide(CO2),nitrogenoxides(NOX),sulfurdioxide(SO2),mercury(Hg),methane(CH4)andnitrousoxide(N2O)frompotentialenergyconservationstandardsfortheconsideredequipment.•Monetization:–DOEconsiderstheestimatedmonetarybenefitslikelytoresultfromthereducedemissionsofCO2fromtheenergyefficiencystandardslevels–ToestimatebenefitsfromCO2,DOEusestheSocialCostofCarbonvaluesdevelopedbyaninteragencyprocess.EmissionsImpactAnalysisOverview112EmissionAnalysisandEmissionsMonetizationIssue #36: DOE seeks input on its plans to useNEMS-BT to conduct the emissions analysis forthe products covered by this rulemaking.Issue #37: Are there any other emissions factorsthe DOE should consider in this rulemaking?Issue #38: Are there other approaches to theemissions analysis that the DOE should consider?RequestforComment113•Purpose:Assesstheoverallimpactsondomesticenergysuppliesthatwouldresultfromtheimpositionofstandards.•Method:–Usesnationalenergysavingsresults.–UsestheEnergyInformationAdministration’sNationalEnergyModelingSystem(NEMS)tailoredforDOE’sBuildingTechnologiesProgram(NEMS‐BT).•Output:–Changeinenergysalesandpricebyregion.–Changeinthemixofelectricitygeneration.–Changeinnewcapacityconstruction.UtilityImpactAnalysisOverviewIssue #39: DOE seeks input on its plans to useNEMS-BT to conduct the utility impact analysis.114•Purpose:Toreportnetjobscreatedoreliminatednationallyasaconsequenceofnewenergyconservationstandards.•Method:–UsestheImSET tool,aspreadsheetmodeloftheU.S.economythatfocuseson188sectorsmostrelevanttobuildingenergyuse.–ChangesinproductandenergyexpenditurestakenfromtheNIA.–Estimatesthenationalemploymentandincomeeffectsofenergysavingappliances.–DirectemploymentimpactstakenfromtheMIA.•Output:Changeinemploymentbysectorasaconsequenceofnewstandards.IndirectEmploymentImpactAnalysisOverviewIssue #40: DOE requests comment about itsplanned approach for assessing national indirectemployment impacts.115•Purpose:–Toinvestigatethenationalimpactsduetonon‐regulatoryalternativescomparedwithmandatoryenergyconservationstandards.–Thenon‐regulatoryalternativesthatmaybeconsidered:•Nonewregulatoryaction;earlyreplacement;prescriptivestandards;consumertaxcredits;manufacturertaxcredits;consumerrebates;voluntaryefficiencytargets;bulkgovernmentprocurement.•Method:–ModifyNESspreadsheetmodeltoconsidernon‐regulatoryscenarios.–Non‐regulatoryscenariosincreaseoverallapplianceefficiencyandaremodeledbymodifyingthebasecaseefficiencytrend.–NPVcalculatedfornon‐regulatoryalternativesinthesamewayasfortheadoptedstandard.–Eachnon‐regulatoryscenariowilldecreasenationalapplianceoperatingcostsandincreaseapplianceequipmentprices.•Output:–NationalEnergySavingsandNetPresentValueofthenon‐regulatoryalternatives.RegulatoryImpactAnalysisOverview116Issue #41: In general, DOE requests any additionalcomments and invites questions from interestedparties about the Department of Energy’s CommercialPackaged Boilers Energy Conservation StandardsRulemaking.Final Comments and Questions117HowtoSubmitComments•Inallcorrespondence,pleaseincludeallofthefollowing:oEnergyConservationStandardsforCommercialPackagedBoilersoDocketNumber:EERE‐2013‐BT‐STD‐0030oRegulatoryIdentificationNumber(RIN):1904‐AD01•ContactInformationEmail:PkgdBoilers2013STD0030@ee.doe.govPostalMail:Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgramMailstopEE‐5B1000IndependenceAvenue,S.W.Washington,DC20585‐0121CommentperiodendsJanuary20,2015Courier:Ms.BrendaEdwardsU.S.DepartmentofEnergyBuildingTechnologiesProgramL’EnfantPlaza,S.W.,Suite600Washington,DC20024Telephone:(202)586‐2945