U.S. Department of 

Transportation 

Federal Railroad 

Administration 

A Practical Risk Assessment Methodology 

for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems

Office of Research and 

Development 

Washington, D.C. 20590 

__________________________________________________________________________ 

DOT/FRA/ORD-09/15 July 2009
ii 

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railroad under FRA's jurisdiction.
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4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 

A Practical Risk Assessment Methodology for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems RR-03/EB013 

6. AUTHOR(S) 

Chinnarao Mokkapati, Terry Tse, Alan Rao 

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8.PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 

Ansoldo-STS USA, Inc., Union Switch & Signal Building, REPORT NUMBER 

1000 Technology Drive, Pittsburgh, PA 15219-3120 DOT/FRA/RDV-09-01 

9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING 

U.S. Department of Transportation AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 

Federal Railroad Administration

Office of Research and Development DOT/FRA/ORD-09/15 

1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE Mail Stop 20, Washington, D.C. 20590 

11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 

Signal, Train Control and Communication Research Programs 

12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 

This document is available to the public through the FRA Internet at www.fra.gov 

13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words) 

This project proposes a Practical Risk Assessment Methodology (PRAM) for analyzing railroad accident data and assessing 

the risk and benefit of safety-critical train control systems. This report documents in simple steps the algorithms and data 

inputs that are required to calculate the collective risks associated with a proposed system (such as a positive train control 

system). These risks are in turn compared with a reference safety target (such as the risk associated with the existing system

or method of operation that the proposed system is intended to replace) to arrive at the quantitative hazard rates that 

proposed system must be designed not to exceed. These hazard rates, called tolerable hazard rates, form a key part of the 

safety requirements specification for the proposed system. A software tool has been developed for use by risk analysts 

safety engineers to implement the steps of PRAM in an iterative manner. 

14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 

Accident reduction, risk assessment, Base Case risk, Proposed Case risk, acceptable safety 12

performance limit, tolerable hazard rates 16. PRICE 

5 

CODE 

17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 

 OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT 

 Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified
iv 

Acknowledgements 

The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) Office 

of Research and Development sponsored the work leading to this report, “A Practical Risk 

Assessment Methodology for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems.” This project was conducted 

under the auspices of the Train Control Systems Research Program, by Ansaldo-STS USA, Inc. 

Ansaldo STS USA would like to extend special appreciation to Terry Tse, Program Manager of 

Train Control Systems Research Program, at Signal, Train Control and Communication Research 

Division, FRA, for his guidance and support. 

Ansaldo STS USA would also like to acknowledge Dr. Alan Rao, System Engineering and Safety 

Division, USDOT John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, as the task manager for 

this work. 
v 

Contents 

Figures ............................................................................................................................... vi 

Tables................................................................................................................................ vii 

Executive Summary.............................................................................................................1 

1.0 Introduction....................................................................................................................2 

1.1 Project Objective .......................................................................................................2 

1.2 Scope..........................................................................................................................2 

2.0 Problem Statement.........................................................................................................3 

3.0 Proposed Solution..........................................................................................................3 

4.0 Risk Assessment Process Steps .....................................................................................8 

4.2 Safety Performance Measures .................................................................................10 

4.3 Other Acceptable Safety Performance Limits .........................................................11 

5.0 Estimation of Risk Assessment Parameters from Historical Data...............................11 

5.1 Estimation of Occurrences.......................................................................................11 

5.2 Estimation of Severity .............................................................................................12 

5.3 Calculation of Base Case Risk.................................................................................13 

6.0 Risk Assessment Methodology Toolset.......................................................................14 

7.0 Example Risk Assessment...........................................................................................14 

8.0 Other Case Studies.......................................................................................................14 

9.0 Conclusions..................................................................................................................15 

10.0 References..................................................................................................................15 

11.0 Appendices ................................................................................................................17 
vi 

Figures

Figure 1. Risk Assessment and System Design Analysis Methodology Overview .......................5 

Figure 2. Risk Assessment Data Processing Steps ..........................................................................7 

Figure A3.1. A Simple Train Protection Warning System...........................................................91 

Figure A3.2. Vital PTC System Architecture.............................................................................105 
vii 

Tables 

Table A1.1. PTC-Preventable Accident Cause Codes..................................................................19 

Table A1.2. Cjk and Sjk Parameters for PTC-Preventable Cause Codes .......................................24 

Table A2.1. PTC-Preventable Accident Cause Codes..................................................................84 

Table A2.2. Base Case Risk Data on Some U.S. Class I Railroads .............................................89 

Table A3.1. Initial Set of Hazards for TPWS...............................................................................92 

Table A3.2. Initial Set of Hazards for PTC System ...................................................................106
1 

Executive Summary 

This project has two objectives: one is to develop a methodology for quantitative risk analysis of a 

proposed safety-critical train control system (or Proposed Case), and the other is to build a software 

tool to help automate the process of data preparation and risk comparison between the current 

system operation (called Base Case) and the Proposed Case. This comparison enables the 

calculation of tolerable hazard rates that the proposed system must be designed not to exceed. That 

is, the proposed safety-critical train control system will be at least as safe as the system it replaces, 

in accordance with the requirements of the Standards for Development and Use of Processor-Based 

Signal and Train Control Systems (Title 49 Code of Federal Regulations Parts 209, 234 and 236) 

issued by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). 

 

The Practical Risk Assessment Methodology (PRAM) is a Cause-Consequence Analysis supported 

by event tree analyses, and by statistical analysis of available historical data from FRA’s Railroad 

Accident/Incident Reporting System (RAIRS). First, the accident probabilities and consequences 

are calculated for each hazard, and then the collective risks are calculated in form of total cost of 

accidents per train-mile for the Base Case and proposed system. The use of a standard tool makes 

this iterative process transparent, so the sources of data and assumptions are available for all to 

review. Where data for new systems are lacking, this standard process allows the user to collect 

new data and test new scenarios, and at the same time maintain the data references between the old 

and new scenarios. PRAM is designed to provide the railroads, suppliers, and regulators with the 

same practical risk assessment method for safety-critical train control systems throughout their life 

cycles. 
2 

1.0 Introduction 

This document is the final report on the project titled “A Practical Risk Assessment Methodology 

for Safety-Critical Train Control Systems,” completed by Ansaldo STS USA (formerly Union 

Switch & Signal, Inc.) under the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Contract No. DTFR53-07-

C-00009. The report is organized as follows: 

1.1 Project Objective 

This project’s objective is the development of a practical methodology, as well as a toolset to 

implement the methodology, for the assessment of risks associated with the deployment of new 

safety-critical train control systems. The methodology must be based on valid assumptions. It must 

be an iterative process that allows the input data to be changed and the results to be compared. It 

must be of low cost and straightforward to apply. Because the new systems are deployed with the 

goal of enhancing safety and efficiency on the railways on which they are deployed, the 

methodology must support the validation of this goal. 

In broad outline, the particular risk assessment methodology described herein consists of the 

following steps: 

1) Define the new system and analyze its intended operation to determine all potential hazards; 

2) Analyze the risks resulting from the identified hazards (potential consequences as affected by 

the available procedural, circumstantial and physical barriers available when the new system 

is in a hazardous state); 

3) Determine the tolerable hazard rates (THRs) for the system functions by comparing the risks 

calculated in the second step with a pre-defined limit, thus arriving at a set of safety design 

requirements for the system; and 

4) Refine the risk assessment to cover any new hazards identified during the design, and show 

that the overall risk with the new system and its intended operation is less than or at most 

equal to the pre-defined limit. 

The output of the project work is a software tool called Practical Risk Assessment Methodology 

(PRAM) that can be used to perform detailed calculations required to implement the described four 

steps, culminating in a list of quantitative THRs for the new system. PRAM will include user 

interfaces for inputting data and will automatically compute the risks associated with each hazard. 

The final product could be made available to the railroads and other parties interested in specifying 

and procuring advanced safety-critical train control systems. 

1.2 Scope 

 

The methodology described in this report can be used to conduct the full risk assessment of a new 

train control system per the performance standard specified in FRA Rules 236H [1] and 236I [16], 

and as elaborated in a paper by Mark Hartong and Olga Cataldi of the FRA Office of Safety [2]. 

The new train control systems employ newer technologies and control architectures, such as 

positive train control (PTC) systems, train protection warning systems, train collision avoidance 

systems, etc. Of particular importance are those systems involved in the control of high-speed 
3 

trains, to which this risk assessment approach is applicable as well. The approach is broadly based 

upon U.S. Military Standard 882C [3], American Railway Maintenance of Way Association 

(AREMA) Communication and Signals (C&S) Manual Section 17 [4], the CENELEC Standards 

EN50126 [5], EN50128 [6], and EN50129 [7], and a CENELEC Report prR009-004 [8]. 

2.0 Problem Statement 

As train control systems increasingly incorporate new technologies and architectures, becoming less 

reliant on humans and more reliant on automation, the importance of having a cost-effective way to 

assess the risk of accidents is growing. Every signaling and train control project that introduces 

new technologies and architectures (e.g., PTC) for replacing conventional train control methods or 

systems is required to provide a full risk assessment according to Reference [1]. The problem, then, 

is to come up with a risk assessment methodology for specifying the level of safety that the new 

system must provide. The methodology must be sound, providing a high degree of confidence that 

the new system will be as safe as or safer than the one it replaces. 

In addition to the cost of performing the risk assessment itself, there is also the cost of having to 

redesign the replacement systems if they fail to meet the specified safety requirements. Since it is 

expensive to design a system, let alone build one, we must make every effort to avoid redesigning it 

at later stages due to realizing too late a nonconformance to standards and/or because of lack of 

clarity of the system safety requirements at the beginning of the design phase. The risk assessment 

methodology should therefore be one that can be applied before a new or replacement system 

design begins. Unfortunately, no such pre-design risk assessment methodologies are in use by the 

North American rail industry. Moreover, general methodologies that do require significant design 

details to be available before they can be applied (e.g., modeling and simulation methods) are not 

yet working satisfactorily and can be costly to apply. So the problem to be solved here is one of 

developing a methodology that is 1) easy to apply, 2) broadly applicable across systems, and 3) can 

be used as a firm basis for the design before the start of the design phase. 

3.0 Proposed Solution 

The PRAM is intended to solve this problem. Employing concepts such as tolerable risk and THRs, 

this probabilistic approach begins by identifying the potential hazards associated with the intended 

operation of the new system in its intended operating environment. Then, using a pre-defined 

acceptable risk limit or an acceptable safety performance limit, and a systematic assessment of the 

risks posed by the hazards in the new system, quantitative tolerable rates of occurrence of the 

hazards are derived. The design of the new system will then be aimed at meeting the THR levels. 

The THRs represent the integrity level to be built into the system against random failures (denoted 

as random failure integrity). The system must also exhibit a systematic failure integrity (represented 

in terms of qualitative Safety Integrity Levels, or SILs, that are consistent with the THRs) against 

non-quantifiable systematic failures stemming from human activities during the specification, 

design, commissioning and operation & maintenance phases of the system lifecycle. 
4 

The PRAM utilizes railway historical data, mainly the FRA RAIRS database [9], for deriving the 

probabilities and severities of the mishaps that could result from the hazards associated with the 

new system. Rather than assess the internal failure mechanisms of the system that lead to hazards, 

which would require it to be designed already, only the external factors such as fallback methods of 

operation, given that the system is in a failed state, need to be analyzed in determining 

consequences of the hazards. Safety-related system design requirements are therefore imposed 

from the “outside” before the system is designed, making it easier and cheaper to develop new 

systems. 

The PRAM utilizes the RAIRS database for calculating the Base Case risk—the risk associated with 

the system to be replaced—denoted as RB. To apply the FRA Rule 236 H performance standard for 

a new system, the Base Case risk will be used as the acceptable risk limit denoted as Acceptable 

Safety Performance Limit (ASPL). 

The primary steps in the risk assessment and design of a new system, along with their expected 

outputs are summarized as follows: 

1. Define the proposed system functionality adequately. 

2. Identify key hazards that could result if the system fails. 

3. Determine the THRfor each hazard by analyzing the consequences of the hazards (taking 

into account the interactions between system and its external environment during the 

hazardous state, and using the Base Case risk as the acceptable safety performance limit). 

4. For each hazard, analyze the causes down to a functional level taking into account system 

definition and architecture. 

5. Decide which functions are implemented by which subsystem. Then, for each subsytem: 

 Collect contributions of each function, which is realized by the subsystem, to all hazards. 

 Calculate subsystem tolerable hazard rate. 

 Translate subsystem tolerable hazard rate into a safety integrity level for the subsystem, 

using a SIL table. 

 Determine failure rates for the subsystem elements to meet its tolerable hazard rate. 

 Verify and validate that the subsystem THR and SIL are met by the design. 

6. As the design progresses, identify any additional hazards that surface, repeat the risk 

assessment to reapportion the THRs. Validate the design, calculate the final risk associated 

with the new system (called Proposed Case risk, RP) and show that it is less than or equal to 

the Base Case risk RB. 

 

These steps are shown in the flowchart of Figure 1. The scope of the proposed work under the 

Contract No. DTFR53-07-C-00009 covers a toolset development for the risk assessment activities 

to be performed in steps 1, 2, 3, and 6. The work does not cover any part of the system design and 

validation effort shown in steps 4, 5, and 6. 
5 

Figure 1. Risk Assessment and System Design Analysis Methodology Overview (From 

Reference 8) 

Define Proposed System 

(functions, boundary, interfaces, 

environment,....) 

Identify (system) hazards 

Analyze consequences of 

hazards 

Develop System and 

Subsystems Architecture 

Allocate Safety Integrity 

Requirements to 

subsystems/system 

elements 

System 

definition 

Hazard Log 

System Safety 

Requirements 

Specification 

Hazard 

Analysis 

Subsystem 

Requirements 

Specification 

Acceptable Safety 

Performance Limit = 

Base Case risk RB

top level 

hazards 

Input Activity Output 

THRs

SILs, 

Failure 

Rates 

1

2 

3 

Complete Subsystem and 

System design. Identify 

additional Hazards, Iterate 

Risk Assessment 

Final risk 

(Proposed Case 

risk RP) 

quantified 

4 

5 

6 

Initial 

Risk 

Assess

t

System 

Design 

Phase 
6 

The steps involved in risk assessment are detailed in Figure 2. This is an iterative process that 

begins with the definition of the proposed system and an identification of the hazards associated 

with that system. On the first iteration, the hazard rates are assumed and various parameters needed 

in various steps of the process shown in Figure 2 are estimated from historical data, and the 

resulting overall risk calculated in terms of a financial loss (dollars per train-mile) is compared with 

the target ASPL. Given the initial estimates, if the calculated overall risk associated with the 

identified hazards is less than or equal to the target ASPL, then the corresponding hazard rates are 

considered tolerable and together represent a level of safety that the system must be designed to 

meet. 

Additional hazards are likely to be identified during the design phase of the new system due to its 

expanded functionality and/or planned changes in the method of operation of the railway after the 

new system is deployed. The risk assessment is then repeated, with a new set of THRs derived. 

The design is then completed to satisfy the new set of THRs, and the overall risk for the railway 

with the new system (Proposed Case risk) should be estimated and shown to be equal to or less than 

the Base Case risk. 

Keeping in mind that if the calculated risk in any iteration is too low in comparison with the Base 

Case risk, the corresponding THRs may be unrealistically low and very expensive to achieve in the 

design of the new system. The hazard rates must be adjusted and apportioned to various system and 

subsystem elements in such a way that it is not too costly to achieve them while ensuring that the 

calculated risk is smaller than, but reasonably close to, the Base Case risk. 
7 

Figure 2 . Risk Assessment Process Steps 

D efine N ew S ystem

(Proposed Case)

Identify H azards

H j, j=1,... , n

A ssum e Initial H azard 

R ates HR j

Identify A ccidents

A jk , k=1,... ,m

C alculate A ccident 

R ates AR jk

C alculate C ollective R isks 

C R jk as $/train-m ile

C om pare Initial H azard 

R ates & Tolerable H azard 

R ates

THR j = HR j

C ontinue w ith S ystem D esign

Interactions w ith 

railw ay 

environm ent

D esign C om pleted

A re C ollective 

R isks 

A cceptable?

C R jk< R B

N o

Yes

Adjust H azard 

R ate E stim ates

Any 

New 

Hazards

?

Yes

N o

Start IN PU TS:

- Functional R equirem ents

- Type of O peration

 (signaling principles)

- O perational P aram eters

 (speed, traffic volum e...)

METHODS:

- B rainstorm ing

- FM ECA

- HAZO PS

OUTPUTS:

- H azard R ates H R j

- Accident R ate AR jk

IN PU TS:

- H azard D urations D j

- A ccident P robabilities C jk

- Interactions w ith

 E nvironm ent N

IN PU TS:

- A ccident S everities S jk

 C osts of equipm ent

 loss, fatalities/injuries, 

 com ercial loss... )

OUPUTS:

- C ollective R isk C R jk

REFERENCES:

- Base C ase R isk R B

- P roposed C ase R isk R P

- Acceptable Safety

 P erform ance Lim it (A S P L)

OUTPUTS:

- Tolerable H azard 

 R ates TH R j

NOTES:

- Ensure that TH R s are not

 unrealistically low

- Keep the system design

 practical (low costs)
8 

4.0 Risk Assessment Process Steps 

4.1.1 System Definition 

The train control system proposed for replacing an existing system or method of operation must be 

defined completely. This is typically done via the following documents: 

 

 System requirements specification, which lays out the functional, physical and performance 

requirements of the train control system, giving consideration to the signaling principles to 

be satisfied and the operational parameters to be met on the railway (e.g., train schedules, 

speeds, traffic densities, etc,). 

 System architecture description, which specifies the primary system components or 

subsystems and defines the interfaces between them and between the overall system and its 

operating environment on the railway. 

 System design description, which outlines the system design for meeting the requirements. 

 

These documents are part of every product development process or product application. 

4.1.2 Hazard Identification 

This second step of the risk assessment process involves identification (and documentation in a 

hazard log) of the potential hazards associated with the intended operation of the system in its 

normal operating environment. This is accomplished through a structured hazard identification 

study using techniques such as brainstorming, hazard and operability study (HAZOPS), and failure 

modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA), as described in AREMA C&S Manual 17.3.5. [10]

To illustrate the methodology, the assumption will be that n hazards are associated with the 

proposed system, which result from its failure modes (or those of its subsystems). Each hazard, Hj, 

j = 1,...., n, will have a hazard rate HRj, measured in failures per hour or per train-mile. 

A hazard duration or exposure time Dj. is also defined. The value of Dj depends upon how the 

system interacts with its environment during the presence of the hazard, as shown later in this report 

with an example. 

Given these definitions, the probability that the environment will be exposed to hazard Hj is 

approximately HRj x Dj. 

4.1.3 Identification of Accidents 

Upon identification of the potential hazards, a systematic and objective consequence and loss 

analysis is required to forecast safety risks, taking into account the interactions between the system 

and its external environment while the system is in a hazardous state. The aim is to systematically 

arrive at a THR value for each hazard. This will in turn assist with a credible determination of 

safety integrity requirements for the system. 
9 

For each hazard, one or more types of accidents (consequences) may occur, depending on how the 

system operates and interacts with its environment while the system is in a hazardous state. Given 

that there is a hazard, Hj, let there be m possible types of accidents Ajk, k = 1,....., m, that could 

occur as a result of that hazard. We will also define Cjk as the probability of occurrence of accident 

type Ajk. A cause-consequence analysis in the form of an event tree analysis may be conducted to 

determine all Ajk, or more precisely, a set of accident rates ARjk, associated with accident types Ajk: 

 

ARjk = N x (HRj x Dj) x Cjk, j = 1,....., n and k = 1,......, m (Eq.1) 

where N is the number of times the system interacts with its environment per hour (or per trainmile). 

The parameters Cjk in Equation 1 can be obtained from historical data on various causes that 

resulted in accidents of type Ajk on the railway before the installation of the proposed system. 

Another way to look at the meaning of Cjk is that the accident causes, which the proposed system is 

intended to prevent, come into play during the time the proposed system remains in a hazardous 

state, resulting in accidents with probabilities Cjk. 

 

4.1.4 Collective Risk Estimation 

To calculate a THR for each hazard, the impact of each accident must be determined. Because a 

greater impact, say in terms of lives lost, will necessitate a lower THR. The impact of an accident is 

typically specified in terms of a severity level, which is expressed in terms of an adjusted cost or an 

adjusted number of fatalities. That is, the severity, Sjk, associated with accident type Ajk is defined 

as: 

Sjk (in terms of adjusted cost per occurrence) = Cost of equipment damage + cost of track 

damage + cost of other damages such as hazmat clean-up and settlement of law suits 

etc.+ equivalent cost of fatalities and injuries. 

Sjk (in terms of adjusted number of fatalities per occurrence) = Actual number of fatalities + 

actual number of injuries converted to an equivalent number of fatalities + all costs 

converted to an equivalent number of fatalities. 

As implied by the definition of Sjk, accidents result in risk to people, equipment, and the physical 

surroundings where they occur. Consequently, a collective risk is associated with every accident 

type that depends on the accident rate for that type of accident and the severity level. If CRjk is 

defined as the collective risk associated with accident type Ajk, then it can be expressed as: 

CRjk = ARjk x Sjk , j = 1,....., n and k = 1,......,,m. 

Using Eq. (1) for ARjk gives, 

CRjk = N x (HRj x Dj) x Cjk x Sjk, j = 1,.....,n and k = 1,......, m (Eq.2) 
10 

4.1.5 Determination of THRs 

To determine the THRs, the sum of the collective risks resulting from all accident types due to all 

hazards, which can be calculated using Equation 2, must be smaller than or equal to RB, the Base 

Case risk or ASPL. Otherwise, the hazard rates have to be reduced until this criterion is satisfied. 

This iterative process will eventually lead to the determination of the tolerable rates for each hazard 

Hj, namely THRj, j = 1,...., n, which become a part of the safety requirements specification for the 

proposed system. 

As shown in Figure 2, if additional hazards are discovered for the proposed system during its 

design, the risk assessment process must be reapplied and a new set of THRs have to be generated. 

The design may conclude when verification and validation of the design provides evidence that all 

THRs have been satisfied. 

The Base Case risk RB is calculated using the following expression from reference [2]: 

RB = (nB(x) x $B(x))/VB dollars/train mile (Eq. 3) 

Here, nB(x) is the number of accidents of type x that occurred over some period of time, $B(x) is the 

average severity of that type of accident, VB is the volume of traffic, which is measured in terms of 

the number of train miles over the same period of time, and the sum is over all accident types. These 

data can be obtained from [9], the FRA RAIRS database. The Base Case risk of an accident is thus 

measured in terms of dollars per train mile. 

4.2 Safety Performance Measures 

To satisfy Rule 236, Subpart H, the value of the risk of the proposed system leading to an accident 

of a certain type summed over all accident types must be the same as or less than the corresponding 

Base Case risk (i.e., the proposed system must be at least as safe as the system it is replacing). This 

is mathematically represented by, 

RP ≤ RB (Eq. 4)

Here, RP is the Proposed Case risk. In addition to the Base Case risk, RB, reference [2] also gives an 

expression for Rp, as given by Equation 5. 

RP = (nP(x) x $P(x))/VP (Eq. 5) 

Here, nP(x) is the number of accidents of type x that could occur in the Proposed Case, $P(x) is the 

average severity of that type of accident; VP is the planned volume of traffic in the Proposed Case, 

which is measured in train-miles. 

The value nP(x) for newly introduced hazards is a function of proposed system equipment 

configuration, equipment hazardous failure rates, operating plans, and human factors considerations 

[2]. The PRAM provides a means of calculating each np(x)/Vp as the accident rate given by Eq. 1, 
11 

and the value of Rp as the sum of the collective risks CRjk, each of which is calculated using Eq. 2. 

That is, 

RP = (nP(x) x $P(x))/VP = CRjk = {[N x (HRj x Dj) x Cjk] x [Sjk]} (Eq. 6) 

Thus, comparing the CRjk with the Base Case risk gives an initial set of THRs and allows the 

design of the proposed system to start. In other words, given a set of functional requirements and 

operating plans for the proposed system, PRAM provides the designer with safety criteria that the 

system must be designed to meet. 

For the proposed system to satisfy the safety requirement of Equation 4, the individual hazard rates 

must yield the appropriate value for overall risk. The risk analyst will begin with an initial set of 

hazard rates. If the calculated risk is much larger or much smaller than RB, or if additional hazards 

are found during the design phase, adjustments to the hazard rates must be made and the risk 

recalculated. This iterative approach to assigning hazard rates will eventually allow the calculation 

of the overall risk RP (using Equation 6) for the proposed system that is smaller than, but reasonably 

close to, the Base Case risk. Note that the overall risk should not be arbitrarily low, since this could 

prove too costly to meet or even impossible to achieve. 

4.3 Other Acceptable Safety Performance Limits 

In the determination of THRs of a proposed system, other industry standards can be used to define 

the tolerable risk level or the acceptable safety performance limit. In Europe, the GAMAB 

(globalment au moins aussi bon, which means ‘globally at least as good’) principle, the ALARP (as 

low as reasonably possible) principle, and the MEM (minimum endogenous mortality) principle are 

used for this purpose. A report by Dr. Hendrik Schäbe of the Institute for Software, Electronics, 

Railroad Technology, TÜV InterTraffic GmbH, provides a detailed treatment of these principles 

[11]. 

The GAMAB principle requires the risk of the new system to be no higher than that associated with 

the system being replaced. An upper and a lower bound on tolerable individual fatality rate in 

fatalities per year can be derived from the ALARP principle. And a single value for ASPL can be 

derived from the MEM principle. 

5.0 Estimation of Risk Assessment Parameters from Historical Data 

5.1 Estimation of Occurrences 

The parameters Cjk in Eq. 2 are estimated from data [9] on all U.S. Class 1 railroads. The first step 

in calculating Cjk is to identify all the accidents that occurred because of a particular cause. The 

RAIRS database lists a primary cause, along with secondary, or contributing, causes if they exist, 

for each accident. The causes may be equipment failures or human failures, and are identified by 

“cause codes” in the database. 
12 

The occurrence rate λjk of an accident type Ajk due to a particular cause can be estimated from 

observed data over a long period of time (or train miles) using the maximum likelihood estimates 

method [12] under the assumption that the accident occurrences follow an exponential distribution. 

In this method, a point estimate of the occurrence rate is: 

 

λjk = r/T, 

where r is the number of occurrences over an observation interval T. 

The confidence level in this estimate being equal to the true value of λjk is only about 60 percent. A 

better estimate at a higher degree of confidence can be obtained by using the following expression 

[13]: 

λjk = χ

2

(α, 2r+2)/(2*T) (Eq.6) 

where, 

 r and T are as defined above, and, 

χ

2

 (...) is the Chi-Squared distribution function 

α is (1- confidence level). 

 

Then the probability of occurrence, Cjk, of an accident of type Ajk during a time interval t is: 

 

 Cjk = λjk t*e^(- λjkt) (Eq.7) 

Appendix 1 provides the Cjk estimates from data in the RAIRS database, for collisions and 

derailments at different speeds as occurred on U.S. mainline track during the period 1996–2007. 

Only those cause codes that can be prevented from resulting in accidents/incidents if a new 

signaling system (e.g., a PTC system) is installed, are included in Appendix 1. These cause codes 

are termed “PTC-preventable cause codes”. 

An online database of Cjk parameters (as a Microsoft Excel database) for all cause codes that could 

be prevented from resulting in accidents by deploying train control systems such as PTC Systems is 

included in the PRAM tool for use by the risk analyst who conducts the cause-consequence 

analysis. 

5.2 Estimation of Severity 

The parameters Sjk in Eq. 2 can also be estimated from the FRA RAIRS database. An example is 

presented below. 

Sjk (Cost per occurrence) = [(Equipment Damages) + (Track Damages) + (Other Damages) 

+ (Injuries*$1,500,000) + (Fatalities*$3,000,000)]/Njk

Where, 

• Injuries are given the value of $1,500,000 per injury 

• Fatalities are given the value of $3,000,000 per fatality 
13 

• Costs of other damages are assumed as follows, for each occurrence: 

• Low speed collision/derailment (0 to 19 mph): $2,500,000 

• Medium speed collision/derailment (20 to 49 mph): $5,000,000 

• High speed collision/derailment (50+ mph) : $10,000,000 

• Njk is the total number of occurrences of accident type k due to cause j over the 

observation time period (1996-2007). 

Appendix 1 includes the Sjk estimates from the FRA RAIRS database for collisions and derailments 

at different speeds as occurred on U.S. mainline track during the period 1996–2007, for PTCpreventable cause codes, as in the case of the Cjk estimates. 

In this project, the cost of injuries and fatalities, and also the cost of Other Damages category, used 

in the calculation of Sjk parameters are best guesses, based on review of some available data in the 

industry. The Microsoft Excel database of the Sjk values in the PRAM Tool has provision for 

recalculating these parameters automatically if a different value is given to any of these costs. 

5.3 Calculation of Base Case Risk 

Reference [2] provides the description of various Base Case scenarios to be used when a Railroad is 

considering replacement of an existing system with a new system such as a PTC System. For 

passenger trains operating at 59 mph or less and freight trains running at 49 mph or less, the Base 

Case is the system in current use. For freight operations with speeds exceeding 49 mph and 

passenger operations with speeds exceeding 59 mph, but below 79 mph in both cases, the Base Case 

system would be a traditional traffic control system. If the proposed PTC system is intended to 

operate at speeds above 79 mph and below 110 mph, the Base Case system would be a cab 

signaling system with automatic train control. For PTC systems with planned operational speeds 

above 110 mph, FRA determines the Base Case in light of the characteristics of the planned 

operations. 

The Base Case needs an adjustment based upon the annual average number of trains per day on the 

railway line where a new system is to be deployed. In the event that the annual average number of 

trains per day on the line in question is greater than 12 (or the annual average number of passenger 

trains on the line has increased by more than 4), the Base Case is automatically presumed to be the 

level of risk associated with a traffic control system. However, if the railroad can show that the 

annual average volume is more than 12 but less than 20 trains per day, and that the existing method 

of operation is adequate, then any change to the Base Case due to volume is not required. If the 

annual average volume is greater than 20 trains per day, the Base Case is the level of risk associated 

with a traditional traffic control system. 

For different Base Cases as defined above, the Base Case risk RB as given by Equation 3 in Section 

3.1.5 can be calculated using data from the RAIRS database [9]. The values of RB on a few U.S. 

Class I Railroads are presented in Appendix 2. The Base Case method of operation on these 

railroads is considered as a traffic control system. Accidents/Incidents that occurred over a 12-year 

period due to PTC-preventable causes only were considered in the calculation. These causes 

include the RAIRS Human Factors cause code groups H1xx, H2xx, H4xx, H6xx, H7xx, and H9xx; 
14 

and Track/Roadbed cause code groups T0xx, T1xx, T2xx, T3xx, and T4xx. Also, the severity costs 

of the accidents/incidents, as represented by the parameter $B(x) in Equation 3, are based on the 

same assumptions as in the case of calculating the Sjk parameters (see Section 5.2). It is important 

for the risk analyst responsible for computing the Base Case risk to use caution in selecting the 

cause codes that represent the Base Case under consideration, and to state all the assumptions made 

in the calculation. Also, RB can be computed for a division, a zone or a line of given railroad rather 

than for the entire railroad. 

6.0 Risk Assessment Methodology Toolset 

A software tool (PRAM tool) for use by the risk analyst in an iterative risk assessment process has 

been developed under this contract. This Tool is a Microsoft Windows XP-based PC Application 

developed in VC++. It has the following features: 

1. Accepts inputs on hazards at System, Subsystem or Function levels 

2. Provides the means to conduct Cause Consequence Analyses (CCA) using the EventTree Analysis approach when needed. 

3. Contains databases of Cjk, Sjk and RB parameters computed as described in Section 5. 

4. Enables the risk analyst to derive the necessary Cjk and Sjk parameter values for the CCA 

under consideration 

5. Enables the risk analyst to derive the necessary RB parameter value as the ASPL in the 

calculation of THRs. 

6. Generates reports. 

7. Contains online help and user manual. 

8. Contains appropriate error-handling and data validation mechanisms. 

7.0 Example Risk Assessment 

Two test cases of risk assessment using the PRAM Tool are presented in Appendix 3. 

8.0 Other Case Studies 

Jens Braband, head of the Center of Competence for RAMSS of the signaling branch of Siemens 

Transportation Systems, has applied a similar methodology to variants of a low-cost train control 

system [14] [15]. 
15 

9.0 Conclusions 

This project has proposed a PRAM through the examination of railroad accident data and FRA’s 

requirements for new systems such as PTC systems. Using the publicly available data from FRA’s 

RAIRS, this methodology compares the risk levels between the existing Base Case and the 

proposed new system. The performance standards, such as Title 49 Code of Federal Regulations 

(CFR) Part 236 Subparts H and I, require the new system to be as safe as the existing system it 

replaces. A practical approach for a railroad is to set the new system targets from the analysis of 

existing systems operated on the railroad’s routes or corridors. 

This project also recognized the need for a computer toolset for data processing on hazard or 

accident rates, cause aggregation, consequence, and cost calculation. As the societal and economic 

costs of an accident may vary from railroads to FRA, the tool allows the analyst to change these 

model parameters for comparative measurements. The PRAM toolset makes all these data elements 

transparent and open for all railroads and regulators to review. By standardizing the methodology 

and the data uses, the railroads can use the results of old case studies for new case proposals, as the 

systems contain some similar components and operate under the same operating rules or conditions. 

Therefore, a railroad may select a typical rail route or segment for developing a safety case, and 

then may reapply this case on other routes or segments that have the same characteristics or track 

attributes bearing on the risks. This principle has been approved by the FRA, as described in 49 

CFR Part 236 Subpart I on PTC Implementation. 

To be consistent with other system safety principles and other European and International 

standards such as IEC and ISO, this PRAM developed some intermediate data elements for future 

data translation. One of such terms is the Acceptable Safety Performance Level (ASPL). At the 

beginning, the ASPL can be seen as the existing THRs. Later, when a new system is designed to 

meet this target, the ASPL can also be replaced by the new system collective risk value. The toolset 

will allow the railroads and governments to calculate the risk as the total societal cost per train-mile 

(in the United States) or by the equivalent fatality for the system's lifetime (in some European 

countries). For any safety-critical systems, the PRAM principle is the same—to make the new 

system “as safe and practical as possible.” A set of safety requirements are derived upfront, 

allowing a disciplined approach to the design of the system right from the design phase, thus 

minimizing the risk of costly redesigns in later phases of the operation lifecycle. The case studies 

included in this report also provided the proof of concept of this methodology. 

10.0 References 

[1] 49 CFR Part 236 Subpart H- Standards for Processor-Based Signal and Train Control 

Systems, March 7, 2005. 

[2] Mark W. Hartong, Olga K. Cataldi, Regulatory Risk Evaluation of Positive Train Control 

Systems, Proceedings of 2007 ASME/IEEE Joint Rail Conference & Internal Combustion 

Engine Spring Conference, March 14–16, 2007, Pueblo, CO.

[3] United States Department of Defense (January 19, 1993) Military Standard: MIL-STD-882C 

- System Safety Program Requirements. 
16 

[4] AREMA Communications & Signal Manual, Section 17: Quality Principles. Parts 17.3.1 

(2004), 17.3.3 (2004), and 17.3.5(2004). 

[5] CENELEC Standard EN 50126: Railway Applications - The Specification and 

Demonstration of Dependability, Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety 

(RAMS). Issue: March 2000. 

[6] CENELEC Standard EN 50128: Railway Applications—Communications, signaling and 

processing systems—Software for railway control and protection systems. Issue: March 

2001 

[7] CENELEC Standard EN 50129: Railway Applications—Communications, signaling and 

processing systems—Safety related electronic systems for signaling. Issue: May 2002 

[8] CENELEC Report prR009-004: Railway Applications – Systematic Allocation of Safety 

Integrity Requirements (March 1999). 

[9] FRA Railroad Accidents/Incidents Reporting System (RAIRS) Database, available at 

http://safetydata.fra.dot.gov/officeofsafety/ 

[10] AREMA Communications & Signal Manual Part 17.3.5: Recommended Procedure for 

Hazard Identification and Management of Electronic/Software-based Equipment used in 

Safety-Critical (Vital) Applications, (Revised 2007). 

[11] Different Approaches For Determination of Tolerable Hazard Rates, by Dr. Hendrik Schäbe,

Institute for Software, Electronics, Railroad Technology, TÜV InterTraffic GmbH, 51105 

Köln (2001). 

[12] Martin L. Shooman, Probabilistic Reliability: An Engineering Approach, New York: 

McGraw-Hill, 1968. 

[13] Igor Bazovsky, Reliability Theory and Practice, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall Space 

Technology Series, 1961. 

[14] Risk Assessment in Railroad Signaling: Experience Gained and Lessons Learned, by J. 

Braband, IEEE Proceedings of the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 2002, pp. 

147-152. 

[15] Hazard and Risk Analysis for a Low-cost Train Control System, by J. Braband and F. 

Renpenning, Siemens Report, 2001. 

[16] 49CFR Part 236 Subpart I- Postive Train Control Systems, Notice of Proposed Rule Making 

to be published on July 21, 2009. 
17 

11.0 Appendices 

Appendices 1, 2 and 3 follow this page.
18 

Appendix 1. Tables of Cjk and Sjk Parameters for US Class 1 

Railroads

Data Common to All Cause Codes

Accident/Incident Type: All Derailments/Collisions 

Data Analysis Period: 1996-2007 

Train Type: All 

Track Type: Main 

Hazmat: Not Included 

Damage Amount: All 

Reference: FRA RAIRS Database 

Total Train Miles 

(From RAIRS 

Database) 

Fatality Cost 

(Assumed) 

Injury Cost 

(Assumed) 

Low-Speed 

Other Damages 

(Assumed) 

Medium-Speed 

Other Damages 

(Assumed) 

High-Speed 

Other Damages 

(Assumed) 

7,655,577,339 $3,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,500,000 $5,000,000 $10,000,000
19 

Table A1.1. PTC-Preventable Accident Cause Codes 

(Ref: FRA Guide for Preparing Accident/Incident Reports, Appendix C) 

Category Cause Code or Failure Description 

TRACK, ROADBED AND STRUCTURES 

Roadbed 

T001 Roadbed settled or soft 

T002 Washout/rain/slide/flood/snow/ice damage to track 

T099 Other roadbed defects (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Track Geometry 

T101 Cross level of track irregular (at joints) 

T102 Cross level of track irregular (not at joints) 

T103 Deviation from uniform top of rail profile 

T104 Disturbed ballast section 

T105 Insufficient ballast section 

T106 Superelevation improper, excessive, or insufficient 

T107 Superelevation runoff improper 

T108 Track alignment irregular (other than buckled/sunkink) 

T109 Track alignment irregular (buckled/sunkink) 

T110 Wide gage (due to defective or missing crossties) 

T111 Wide gage (due to defective or missing spikes or other rail fasteners) 

T112 Wide gage (due to loose, broken, or defective gage rods) 

T113 Wide gage (due to worn rails) 

T199 Other track geometry defects (Provide detailed description in narrative 

 

Rail, Joint Bar and Rail Anchoring 

T201 Broken Rail - Bolt hole crack or break 

T202 Broken Rail – Base 
20 

T203 Broken Rail - Weld (plant) 

T204 Broken Rail - Weld (field) 

T205 Defective or missing crossties (use code T110 if results in wide gage) 

T206 Defective spikes or missing spikes or other rail fasteners (use code T111 if results 

in wide gage) 

T207 Broken Rail - Detail fracture from shelling or head check 

T208 Broken Rail - Engine burn fracture 

T210 Broken Rail - Head and web separation (outside joint bar limits) 

T211 Broken Rail - Head and web separation (within joint bar limits) 

T212 Broken Rail - Horizontal split head 

T213 Joint bar broken (compromise) 

T214 Joint bar broken (insulated) 

T215 Joint bar broken (noninsulated) 

T216 Joint bolts, broken, or missing 

T217 Mismatched rail-head contour 

T218 Broken Rail - Piped rail 

T219 Rail defect with joint bar repair 

T220 Broken Rail - Transverse/compound fissure 

T221 Broken Rail - Vertical split head 

 T222 Worn rail 

T223 Rail Condition - Dry rail, freshly ground rail. 

T299 Other rail and joint bar defects (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Frogs, Switches and Track Appliances 

T301 Derail, defective 

T302 Expansion joint failed or malfunctioned 

T303 Guard rail loose/broken or mislocated 

T304 Railroad crossing frog, worn or broken 

T307 Spring/power switch mechanism malfunction 

T308 Stock rail worn, broken or disconnected 

T309 Switch (hand operated) stand mechanism broken, loose, or worn 

T310 Switch connecting or operating rod is broken or defective 

T311 Switch damaged or out of adjustment 
21 

T312 Switch lug/crank broken 

T313 Switch out of adjustment because of insufficient rail anchoring 

T314 Switch point worn or broken 

T315 Switch rod worn, bent, broken, or disconnected 

T316 Turnout frog (rigid) worn, or broken 

T317 Turnout frog (self guarded), worn or broken 

T318 Turnout frog (spring) worn, or broken 

T319 Switch point gapped (between switch point and stock rail) 

T399 Other frog, switch and track appliance defects (Provide detailed description in 

narrative) 

 

Other Way and Structure 

T401 Bridge misalignment or failure 

T402 Flangeway clogged 

T403 Engineering design or construction 

T404 Catenary system defect 

T499 Other way and structure defect (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

HUMAN FACTORS 

Employee Physical Condition 

H101 Impairment of efficiency or judgment because of drugs or alcohol 

H102 Incapacitation due to injury or illness 

H103 Employee restricted in work or motion 

H104 Employee asleep 

H199 Employee physical condition, other (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Flagging, Fixed, Hand and Radio Signals 

H204 Fixed Signal, failure to comply 

H205 Flagging, improper or failure to flag 

H206 Flagging signal, failure to comply 

H207 Hand signal, failure to comply 

H208 Hand signal improper 

H209 Hand signal, failure to give/receive 
22 

H210 Radio communication, failure to comply 

H211 Radio communication, improper 

H212 Radio communication, failure to give/receive 

H215 Block Signal, failure to comply 

H216 Inerlocking Signal, failure to comply 

H217 Failure to observe hand signals given during a wayside inspection of moving train 

H218 Failure to comply with failed equipment detector warning or with applicable train 

inspection rules. 

H219 Fixed signal (other than automatic block or interlocking signal), improperly 

displayed. 

H220 Fixed signal (other than automatic block or interlocking signal), failure to comply. 

H221 Automatic block or interlocking signal displaying a stop indication - failure to 

comply. 

H222 Automatic block or interlocking signal displaying other than a stop indication - 

failure to comply. 

H299 Other signal causes (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Main Track Authority 

H401 Failure to stop train in clear 

H402 Motor car or on-track equipment rules, failure to comply 

H403 Movement of engine(s) or car(s) without authority (railroad employee) 

H404 Train order, track warrant, track bulletin, or timetable authority, failure to comply 

H405 Train orders, track warrants, direct traffic control, track bulletins, radio, error in 

preparation, transmission or delivery 

H406 Train orders, track warrants, direct traffic control, track bulletins, written, error in 

preparation, transmission or delivery 

H499 Other main track authority causes (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Speed 

H601 Coupling speed excessive 

H602 Switching movement, excessive speed 

H603 Train on main track inside yard limits, excessive speed 

H604 Train outside yard limits, in block signal or interlocking territory, excessive speed 

H605 Failure to comply with restricted speed in connection with the restrictive indication 

of a block or interlocking signal 
23 

H606 Train outside yard limits in nonblock territory, excessive speed 

H607 Failure to comply with restricted speed or its equivalent not in connection with a 

block or interlocking signal 

H699 Speed, other (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Switches, Use of 

H701 Spring Switch not cleared before reversing 

H702 Switch improperly lined 

H703 Switch not latched or locked 

H704 Switch previously run through 

H705 Moveable point switch frog improperly lined 

H706 Switch improperly lined, radio controlled 

H707 Radio controlled switch not locked effectively 

H799 Use of switches, other (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Miscellaneous 

H991 Tampering with safety/protective device(s) 

H992 Operation of locomotive by uncertified/unqualified person 

H993 Human Factor - track 

H994 Human Factor - Signal installation or maintenance error (field) 

H99A Human Factor - Signal - Train Control - Installation or maintenance error (shop). 

H99B Human Factor - Signal - Train Control - Operator Input Onboard computer 

incorrect data entry. 

H99C Human Factor - Signal - Train Control - Operator Input Onboard computer 

incorrect data provided 

H99D Computer system design error (non vendor) 

H99E Computer system configuration/management error (non vendor) 

H995 Human Factor - motive power and equipment 

H996 Oversized loads or Excess Height/Width cars, mis-routed or switched. 

H997 Motor car or other on-track equipment rules (other than main track authority) - 

Failure to Comply. 

H999 Other train operation/human factors (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 
24 

Table A1.2. Cjk and Sjk Parameters for PTC-Preventable Cause Codes 

Cause Code: H101-Impairment of efficiency or judgment because of drugs or alcohol 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

# of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Type of Accident/Incident Damage 

Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Train Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 1 1,400,89 $ 3 $ 317,250 $ 5,000,000 2 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 1 7, $ 774 $ 1,390 $ 2,500,000 0 1 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: H102-Incapacitation due to injury or illness 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

# of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Type of Accident/Incident Damage (S

Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 1 $ 630,000 $ - $ 5,000,000 0 1 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 7Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 1 $ 30,000 $ - $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 2High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 
25 

Cause Code: H103-Employee restricted in work or motion 

Total 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Other 

Type of # of Total Total Rate per Probability 

Eqpt Track Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage Damage (Assume 

Miles Train Miles 

d) 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

Cause Code: H104-Employee asleep 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 1 $ 433,003 $ 79,110 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 4 $ 450,826 $ 494,239 $ 10,000,000 0 2 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 $ 1,300,381 $ 69,982 $ 10,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 1Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 320,000 $ 8,000 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 $ 10,649 $ 22,924 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 
26 

Cause Code: H199-Employee physical condition, other 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 1 $ 367,800 $ 11,199 $ 2,500,000 0 1 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 4

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: H204-Fixed signal, failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 4 $ 7,722,503 $ 492,000 $ 40,000,000 5 69 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 4

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 6 $ 2,985,681 $ 392,146 $ 30,000,000 1 5 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 5 $ 2,614,415 $ 549,820 $ 12,500,000 0 15 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 4 844,3 $ 21 $ 197,611 $ 20,000,000 4 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 5 96, $ 300 $ 61,800 $ 12,500,000 0 0 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 $ 
27 

Cause Code: H205-Flagging, improper or failure to flag 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Total Rate per Probability 

Track Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 1 $ 124,500 $ 1,290 $ 5,000,000 0 1 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 6

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 $ 26,556 $ 2,500 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 2

Cause Code: H206-Flagging signal, failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Total Rate per Probability 

Track Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 
28 

Cause Code: H207-Hand signal, failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Total Rate per Probability 

Eqpt Track Damage p

Accident/Incident Occurrences Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage Damage (Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: H208-Hand signal improper 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Total Rate per Probability 

Eqpt Track Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage Damage (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 
29 

Cause Code:H209-Hand signal, failure to give/receive 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Total Other A

Type of # of Total Total Rate per Probability 

Eqpt Track Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Fatalities Injuries Million (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage Damage (Assumed) Occ

Train Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 - $ $ 35,900 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 2

Cause Code: H210-Radio communication, failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 4 $ 207,992 $ 4,718 $ 10,000,000 0 2 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 $ 8,770 $ 97,003 $ 10,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 6 $ 130,205 $ 121,748 $ 15,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 
30 

Cause Code: H211-Radio communication, improper 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 2 $ 211,647 $ 35,718 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 2

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 7 $ 87,140 $ 153,153 $ 17,500,000 0 0 1.54E-03 1.5352E-03 $ 2

Cause Code: H212-Radio communication, failure to give/receive 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 5 $ 238,818 $ 14,000 $ 12,500,000 0 2 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 $ 3,High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 3, $ 0 00 $ 8,500 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 2,
31 

Cause Code: H215-Block signal, failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj Co

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage p

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 2 $ 6,754,714 $ 479,430 $ 20,000,000 0 27 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 20 $ 26,051,003 $ 2,599,013 $ 100,000,000 5 83 3.53E-03 3.5203E-03 $ 13,4

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 14 $ 3,814,860 $ 268,820 $ 35,000,000 0 8 2.63E-03 2.6223E-03 $ 3,6High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 902,050 $ 90,000 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 5,9Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 6 $ 202,034 $ 223,080 $ 15,000,000 0 2 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 3,0

Cause Code: H216-Interlocking signal, failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sjk) 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occur

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 1 309, $ 072 $ 600 $ 10,000,000 0 4 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 16,30

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 8 2,614,878 $ $ 297,652 $ 40,000,000 0 13 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 $ 7,80

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 6 3,535,466 $ $ 221,094 $ 15,000,000 0 8 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 5,12

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 3 519,1 $ 00 $ 249,046 $ 15,000,000 0 2 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 6,25

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 3 $ 00 $ 16,100 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 2,51
32 

Cause Code:H217-Failure to observe hand signals given during a wayside inspection of moving train 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Total Rate per Probability 

Track Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 603 $ 18,260 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: H218-Failure to comply with failed equipment detector warning or with applicable train

inspection rules

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 2 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 1 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 $ 4,720 $ 16,500 $ 10,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 1

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 10 $ 1,329,839 $ 2,104,091 $ 50,000,000 0 0 2.01E-03 2.0084E-03 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 8 $ 388,846 $ 414,331 $ 20,000,000 0 0 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 $ 
33 

Cause Code: H219-Fixed signal (other than automatic block or interlocking signal), improperly displayed 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 2 $ 00 $ 15,000 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 5,Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: H220-Fixed signal (other than automatic block or interlocking signal), failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 1 $ 87,458 $ - $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 4 $ 817,083 $ 70,677 $ 10,000,000 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 2High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 101,256 $ 71,905 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 5Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 $ 3,100 $ 13,500 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 2
34 

Cause Code:H221-Automatic block or interlocking signal displaying a stop indication – failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 2 12,985,564 $ 558,000 $ $ 20,000,000 4 2 1.59E-03 1.5867E-03 $ 24

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 22 31,855,740 $ 3,471,610 $ $ 5 118 8.75E-03 8.6786E-03 110,000,000 $ 15

Low Speed (0 to 19mph) Collision 15 $ 2,462,714 $ 213,735 $ 37,500,000 0 51 6.36E-03 6.3175E-03 $ 7

High Speed (50 mph or 

greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 6.88E-04 6.8707E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 11,000 $ 250 $ 5,000,000 0 0 1.16E-03 1.1601E-03 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19mph) Derailment 5 $ 60,593 $ 129,251 $ 12,500,000 0 0 2.77E-03 2.7617E-03 $ 2

Cause Code: H222-Automatic block or interlocking signal displaying other than a stop indication – failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sjk

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 3 $ 2,908,000 $ 5,000 $ 15,000,000 0 69 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 40,4

$ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 7 $ 515,595 $ 534,903 $ 17,500,000 0 32 1.54E-03 1.5352E-03 $ 9,5

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 95,095 $ 128,077 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 5,2

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 $ 213,509 $ 8,766 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 2,7
35 

Cause Code: H299-Other signal causes 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 $ 244,500 $ 9,800 $ 5,000,000 0 1 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 3

Cause Code: H401-Failure to stop train in clear 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sjk

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 9 $ 4,312,389 $ 505,999 $ 45,000,000 0 10 1.86E-03 1.8522E-03 $ 7,2

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 13 $ 1,349,340 $ 14,320 $ 32,500,000 0 7 2.48E-03 2.4702E-03 $ 3,4

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 4 $ 58,205 $ 2,650 $ 10,000,000 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 2,5
36 

Cause Code: H402-Motor car or on-track equipment rules, failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 3 $ 383,234 $ 50,000 $ 30,000,000 0 1 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 1

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 15 2,033,904 $ 249,383 $ $ 75,000,000 0 26 2.78E-03 2.7736E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 20 $ 373,871 $ 70,300 $ 50,000,000 0 12 3.53E-03 3.5203E-03 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 $ 12,498 $ - $ 10,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 1

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 $ 31,000 $ - $ 10,000,000 0 1 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 3 $ 120,000 $ 40,000 $ 7,500,000 0 1 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 

Cause Code: H403-Movement of engine(s) or car(s) without authority (railroad employee) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 5 $ 3,017,381 $ 37,802 $ 0 10 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 25,000,000 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 6 $ 205,033 $ 14,000 $ 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 15,000,000 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 5 $ 202,831 $ 362,919 $ 0 1 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 12,500,000 $ 
37 

Cause Code: H404-Train order, track warrant, track bulletin, or timetable authority, failure to comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 6 $ 5,517,674 $ 223,540 30,000,000 $ 3 6 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 8

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 11 $ 1,972,356 $ 122,500 27,500,000 $ 0 4 2.17E-03 2.1634E-03 $ 3High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 3 $ 589,435 $ 236,636 15,000,000 $ 0 1 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 4 $ 104,890 $ 18,401 10,000,000 $ 0 2 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 3

Cause Code: H405-Train orders, track warrants, direct traffic control, track bulletin, radio, error in preparation, transmission, or delivery

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 2 $ 2,017,665 $ 45,082 $ 10,000,000 0 6 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 1

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 3 $ 30,250 $ 1,500 $ 7,500,000 0 1 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 445,700 $ 232,000 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 
38 

Cause Code: H406-Train orders, track warrants, direct traffic control, track bulletin, written, error in preparation, transmission, or delivery 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 1 $ 16,250 $ - $ 10,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 10Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: H499-Other main track authority causes

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 2 $ 2,289,096 $ 798,050 $ 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 11

20,000,000 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 8 $ 7,661,001 $ 500,750 $ 1 15 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 40,000,000 $ 9

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 3 $ 654,287 $ 105,944 $ 7,500,000 0 24 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 14

$ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 2 $ 2,289,096 $ 798,050 $ 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 11

20,000,000 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 4 $ 989,857 $ 182,000 $ 0 4 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 20,000,000 $ 6

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 6 $ 173,051 $ 668,505 $ 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 15,000,000 $ 2
39 

Cause Code: H601-Coupling speed excessive

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 21 $ 490,332 $ 266,914 $ 52,500,000 0 0 3.68E-03 3.6680E-03 $ 2

Cause Code: H602-Switching movement, excessive speed 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj Co

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage p

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

gp ( p

or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

p (

to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 3 $ 28,250 $ 59,770 $ 7,500,000 0 0 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 2,
40 

Cause Code: H603-Train on main track inside yard limits, excessive speed 

Occurrence Occurrence Total Other Adj Co

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability (Cjk) Damage p

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train in 1 M Train (Assumed) Occur

Miles Miles

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 15,257 $ 200 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 5,0

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 17 $ 573,765 $ 518,885 $ 42,500,000 0 0 3.08E-03 3.0740E-03 $ 2,5

Cause Code: H604-Train outside yard limits, in block signal or interlocking territory, excessive speed 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj Co

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage pe

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occur

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 6 $ 3,766,030 $ 285,313 $ 60,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 10,6

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 13 $ 881,668 $ 882,420 $ 65,000,000 0 0 2.48E-03 2.4702E-03 $ 5,1

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 11 $ 515,230 $ 1,566,730 $ 27,500,000 0 0 2.17E-03 2.1634E-03 $ 2,6
41 

Cause Code: H605-Failure to comply with restricted speed on connection with the restrictive indication of a block or onterlocking signal 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 6 $ 532,410 $ 193,600 30,000,000 $ 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 26 $ 1,953,566 $ 351,504 65,000,000 $ 0 9 4.42E-03 4.4003E-03 $ 

Cause Code: H606-Train outside yard limits in nonblock territory, excessive speed 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 13 $ 1,590,307 $ 897,054 $ 0 0 2.48E-03 2.4702E-03 65,000,000 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 16 $ 2,296,333 $ 1,141,173 $ 0 9 2.93E-03 2.9241E-03 40,000,000 $ 
42 

Cause Code: H607-Failure to comply with restricted speed or its equivalent not in connection with a block or interlocking signal 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 $ 490,149 $ 189,400 $ 10,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 9 $ 172,248 $ 66,725 $ 22,500,000 0 0 1.86E-03 1.8522E-03 $ 

Cause Code: H699-Speed, other (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 2 $ 9,023,288 $ 4,152,000 $ 20,000,000 2 199 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

16

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 8 $ 518,400 $ 961,955 $ 40,000,000 0 1 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 17 $ 1,225,411 $ 594,655 $ 42,500,000 3 0 3.08E-03 3.0740E-03 $ 
43 

Cause Code: H701-Spring Switch not cleared before reversing 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 24 $ 501,918 $ 514,595 $ 60,000,000 0 1 4.13E-03 4.1086E-03 $ 

Cause Code: H702-Switch improperly lined 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 2 $ 1,744,730 $ 158,415 $ 10,000,000 0 5 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 15 $ 593,579 $ 105,805 $ 37,500,000 0 3 2.78E-03 2.7736E-03 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 8 $ 2,584,402 $ 1,309,938 $ 40,000,000 0 4 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 161 $ 2,925,428 $ 2,620,734 $ 0 2 2.33E-02 2.2780E-02 402,500,000 $ 
44 

Cause Code: H703-Switch not latched or locked 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 3 $ 325,590 $ 297,026 $ 15,000,000 0 0 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 25 $ 751,943 $ 376,181 $ 62,500,000 0 0 4.27E-03 4.2546E-03 $ 

Cause Code: H704-Switch previously run through

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 2 26 $ ,150 $ 36,500 $ 20,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 1

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 4 $ 2,433,672 $ 386,001 $ 20,000,000 0 5 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 41 $ 625,332 $ 653,622 102,500,000 $ 0 0 6.60E-03 6.5518E-03 $ 
45 

Cause Code: H705-Moveable point switch frog improperly lines 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Total Rate per Probability 

Track Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage (Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 445,40 $ 7 $ 558,556 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 8 72,8 $ 85 $ 150,346 $ 20,000,000 0 0 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 $ 

Cause Code: H706-Switch improperly lined, radio controlled 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 - $ $ 7,000 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 

$ 
46 

Cause Code: H707-Radio controlled switch not locked effectively 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 5 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: H799-Use of switches, other 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 1 36, $ 739 $ 36,128 $ - 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 107,553 $ $ 2,000 $ 5,000,000 0 3 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 

$ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 41 $ 292,183 $ 378,226 $ 0 1 6.60E-03 6.5518E-03 2

102,500,000 $ 
47 

Cause Code: H991-Tampering with safety/protective device(s) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 3, $ 000 $ 10,950 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 

Cause Code: H992-Operation of locomotive by uncertified/unqualified person 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability (Cjk) 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train in 1 M Train 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 
48 

Cause Code: H993-Human factor-track 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 10 $ 1,525,522 $ 728,874 $ 50,000,000 0 4 2.01E-03 2.0084E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 9 $ 300,215 $ 640,410 $ 22,500,000 0 0 1.86E-03 1.8522E-03 $ 

Cause Code: H994-Human factor-Signal installation or maintenance error (field) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 769,727 $ 275,214 $ 5,000,000 0 5 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 1

$ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 5 $ 91,402 $ 523,793 $ 12,500,000 0 0 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 $ 
49 

Cause Code: H995-Human Factor-motive power and equipment 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 4,80 $ 0 $ 5,000 10,000,000 $ 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 10

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 116,700 $ 150,000 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 4 $ 101,570 $ 89,200 10,000,000 $ 0 1 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 2

Cause Code: H996-Oversized loads or Excess Height/Width cars, mis-routed or switched 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Eqpt Damage p

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage (Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 
50 

Cause Code: H997-Motor car or other on-track eqiupment rules (other than main track authority) - Failure to Comply 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Total Rate per Probability 

Track Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 4 $ 185,600 $ - 20,000,000 $ 0 2 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 3 $ 280,000 $ 653,622 $ 7,500,000 0 1 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 3

Cause Code: H999-Other train operations/human factors 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 4 1,969,373 $ 1,125,460 $ 40,000,000 $ 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 10

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 21 6,059,460 $ 2,862,476 $ 105,000,000 $ 1 3 3.68E-03 3.6680E-03 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 21 $ 466,579 $ 463,019 $ 52,500,000 0 1 3.68E-03 3.6680E-03 $ 2
51 

Cause Code: T001-Roadbed, settled or soft 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: T002-Washout/rain/slide/etc dmg-track 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Total Rate per Probability 

Eqpt Track Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage Damage (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 
52 

Cause Code:T099-Other roadbed defects 

Occurrence Occurr

Total Total Total Other 

Type of Total Total Rate per Probab

# of Occurrences Eqpt Track Damage 

Accident/Incident Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 

Damage Damage (Assumed) 

Miles Train M

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.00

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.00

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.00

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.00

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.00

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.00

Cause Code: T101-Cross level of track irregular(joints) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Total Rate per Probability 

Track Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 2 $ 26,150 $ 36,500 $ 20,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 10,

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 4 $ 2,433,672 $ 386,001 $ 20,000,000 0 5 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 7,

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 41 $ 625,332 $ 653,622 $ 102,500,000 0 0 6.60E-03 6.5518E-03 $ 2,
53 

Cause Code: T102-Cross level track irregular(not at joints) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 3 196,0 $ 09 $ 604,820 $ 30,000,000 0 0 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 10

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 96 $ 7,802,119 $ 480,000,000 11,850,062 $ 0 0 1.43E-02 1.4140E-02 $ 5Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 150 $ 5,832,018 $ 375,000,000 12,760,699 $ 0 1 2.18E-02 2.1337E-02 $ 2

Cause Code: T103-Deviate from uniform top of rail profile 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 4 $ 286,700 $ 191,244 40,000,000 $ 0 0 1.04E-03 9.0000E+00 10,

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 8 $ 1,564,745 $ 749,458 $ 0 0 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 40,000,000 $ 5,

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 12 $ 339,469 $ 1,134,923 30,000,000 $ 0 0 2.32E-03 2.3173E-03 $ 2,
54 

Cause Code: T104-Disturbed ballast section 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Total Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Total Rate per Probability 

Eqpt Track Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

Damage Damage (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 399,000 $ 252,500 $ $ 10,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 $ 69,400 $ 43,365 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 2

Cause Code: T105-Insufficient ballast section 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Train Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 $ 167,317 $ 85,000 $ 10,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 $ 13,681 $ 18,130 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 
55 

Cause Code: T106-Superelevation improper, excessive, etc. 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 2 $ 10,530 $ 82,234 $ 20,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 10

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 19 $ 3,703,283 2,446,601 $ $ 95,000,000 0 0 3.38E-03 3.3721E-03 $ 5Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 22 $ 991,277 1,231,206 $ $ 55,000,000 0 0 3.83E-03 3.8153E-03 $ 2

Cause Code: T107-Superelevation runoff improper 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Train Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 6 $ 1,271,029 $ 691,588 30,000,000 $ 0 1 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 $ 50,004 $ 95,910 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 2
56 

Cause Code: T108-Track alignment irregular-not buckled/sunkink 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sjk

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 $ 446,875 $ 212,257 $ 10,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 10,6

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 47 10,317,327 $ 6,282,889 $ $ 235,000,000 0 0 7.45E-03 7.3987E-03 $ 5,3Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 43 $ 1,134,453 $ 1,450,055 $ 107,500,000 0 0 6.88E-03 6.8349E-03 $ 2,5

Cause Code: T109-Track alignment irregular (buckled/sunkink) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sjk

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 27 $ 23,343,995 $ 3,168,468 $ 4 209 4.57E-03 4.5457E-03 23,0

270,000,000 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 183 $ 48,863,342 $ 915,000,000 23,708,236 $ 0 6 2.63E-02 2.5647E-02 $ 5,4
57 

Cause Code: T110-Wide gage (defective/ missing crossties) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 $ 555,000 $ 154,019 $ 10,000,000 0 42 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 35 $ 7,871,697 $ 2,804,625 $ 175,000,000 0 5 5.73E-03 5.6979E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 402 12,779,703 $ 12,995,370 $ 1,005,000,000 $ 0 0 5.60E-02 5.2976E-02 $ 

Cause Code: T111-Wide gage(spikes/other rail fasteners) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 3 $ 492,581 1,017,470 $ $ 30,000,000 0 0 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 23 $ 3,438,319 8,456,845 $ $ 0 115,000,000 2 3.98E-03 3.9621E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 46 $ 2,198,206 2,128,918 $ $ 0 115,000,000 0 7.31E-03 7.2580E-03 $ 
58 

Cause Code: T112-Wide gage (loose, broke, etc, gage rods) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 19 $ 625,054 $ 375,803 $ 47,500,000 0 0 3.38E-03 3.3721E-03 $ 2

Cause Code: T113-Wide gage (due to worn nails) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 $ 110,458 $ 109,493 $ 10,000,000 0 1 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 18 $ 547,803 $ 439,795 $ 45,000,000 0 2 3.23E-03 3.2233E-03 $ 2
59 

Cause Code: T199-Other track geometry defects 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 6 9,580,151 $ 855,394 $ $ 60,000,000 1 43 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 22,

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 23 5,747,960 $ 1,858,765 $ 115,000,000 $ 0 0 3.98E-03 3.9621E-03 $ 5,Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 40 2,342,503 $ 2,650,707 $ 100,000,000 $ 0 1 6.45E-03 6.4100E-03 $ 2,

Cause Code: T201-Bolt hole crack or break 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 12 $ 10,172,074 $ 5,164,964 $ 0 1 2.32E-03 2.3173E-03 120,000,000 $ 11

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 27 $ 16,919,506 $ 4,331,781 $ 0 2 4.57E-03 4.5457E-03 135,000,000 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 17 $ 1,300,539 $ 338,879 $ 42,500,000 0 0 3.08E-03 3.0740E-03 $ 2
60 

Cause Code: T202-Broken base of nail 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 7 $10,423,276 2,482,597 $ $ 70,000,000 0 12 1.54E-03 1.5352E-03 14,

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 59 $16,747,435 4,169,472 $ $ 0 40 9.16E-03 9.0753E-03 295,000,000 $ 6,

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 118 $ 6,289,410 $ 2,692,772 $ 0 1 1.74E-02 1.7096E-02 295,000,000 $ 2,

Cause Code: T203-Broken weld (plant) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 10 $ 4,016,728 $ 762,079 50,000,000 $ 0 0 2.01E-03 2.0084E-03 $ 5,

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 4 $ 247,887 $ 198,343 10,000,000 $ 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 2,
61 

Cause Code: T204-Broken weld (Field) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 6 $ 6,161,408 $ 1,816,175 $ 60,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 11,

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 44 22,393,665 $ 8,571,038 $ $ 0 4 7.03E-03 6.9761E-03 220,000,000 $ 5,

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 14 $ 1,204,795 $ 963,864 $ 35,000,000 0 0 2.63E-03 2.6223E-03 $ 2,

Cause Code: T205-Defective or missing crossties 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occu

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 8 $ 916,830 $ 922,865 40,000,000 $ 0 2 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 5,6

$ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 37 $ 850,487 $ 770,715 92,500,000 $ 0 0 6.02E-03 5.9834E-03 2,5

$ 
62 

Cause Code: T206-Defect/missing spike-other rail fastener 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 6 4,743,999 $ 1,514,608 $ $ 0 30,000,000 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 6,

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 13 $ 568,211 $ 362,580 32,500,000 $ 0 0 2.48E-03 2.4702E-03 $ 2,

Cause Code: T207-Detail fracture-shelling/head crack 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 10 $ 9,842,112 $ 2,104,467 100,000,000 $ 0 3 2.01E-03 2.0084E-03 11

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 187 79,883,254 $ 18,938,018 $ 935,000,000 $ 1 17 2.69E-02 2.6166E-02 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 84 10,484,905 $ 5,796,016 $ $ 0 4 1.27E-02 1.2512E-02 210,000,000 $ 2
63 

Cause Code: T208-Engine burn fracture 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 6 $ 1,664,243 $ 319,576 $ 30,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 5Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 4 $ 207,885 $ 66,200 $ 10,000,000 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 2

Cause Code: T210-Head and web separation(outside joint bar limit) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 3 $ 928,532 $ 380,177 $ 30,000,000 0 0 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $

 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 55 $12,413,811 3,917,323 $ $ 0 275,000,000 0 8.59E-03 8.5188E-03 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 72 $ 5,023,975 $ 2,052,945 $ 0 180,000,000 1 1.10E-02 1.0871E-02 $ 
64 

Cause Code: T211-Head and web separation-in joint bar limit 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (S

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 8 $ 7,165,231 $ 2,436,923 $ 0 33 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 80,000,000 $ 17

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 15 $ 3,531,374 $ 1,424,264 $ 0 0 2.78E-03 2.7736E-03 75,000,000 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 6 $ 183,100 $ 102,271 15,000,000 $ 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 2

Cause Code: H212-Radio communication, failure to give/receive 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 5 $ 238,818 $ 14,000 $ 12,500,000 0 2 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 $ 3,High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 3,00 $ 0 $ 8,500 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 2,
65 

Cause Code: T213-Joint bar broken(compromise) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Rate per Probability 

Damage Total Injuries 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 5 $ 2,155,329 $ 1,040,996 $ 50,000,000 0 0 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 7 $ 1,396,745 $ 318,219 $ 35,000,000 0 1 1.54E-03 1.5352E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 6 $ 266,423 $ 186,427 $ 15,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 

Cause Code: T214-Joint bar broken(insulated) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 4 $ 2,956,465 $ 2,036,646 $ 40,000,000 0 7 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 8 $ 5,545,017 $ 1,723,818 $ 40,000,000 0 0 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 $ 82,699 $ 25,125 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 
66 

Cause Code: T215-Joint bar broken(noninsulated) 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 9 $ 10,835,012 $ 2,234,420 $ 90,000,000 1 3 1.86E-03 1.8522E-03 $ 1

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 39 $ 16,881,319 $ 6,870,153 $ 195,000,000 0 2 6.31E-03 6.2680E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 11 $ 415,680 $ 526,166 $ 27,500,000 0 0 2.17E-03 2.1634E-03 $ 

Cause Code: T216-Joint bolts, broken or missing 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage (

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 6 $ 1,701,646 $ 1,034,728 $ 30,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 7 $ 657,068 $ 3,437,825 $ 17,500,000 0 0 1.54E-03 1.5352E-03 $ 
67 

Cause Code: T217-Mismatched rail-head contour 

Occurrence Occurrence Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability Damage (Sj

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 $ 57,300 $ 18,500 $ 10,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 5,Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 5 $ 91,031 $ 52,874 $ 12,500,000 0 0 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 $ 2,

Cause Code: T218-Piped rail 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 110,000 $ - $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 6 $ 222,575 $ 258,895 $ 15,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 
68 

Cause Code: T219-Rail defect with joint bar repair 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 $ 885,078 $ 150,500 $ 10,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 $ 122,000 $ 198,000 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

Cause Code: T220-Transverse/compound fissure 

Occurrence 

Total Other Occurrence 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Probability (Cjk) 

Damage Rate per Million 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries in 1 M Train 

(Assumed) Train Miles O

Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 14 $ 13,963,411 $ 2,601,898 $ 140,000,000 1 49 2.63E-03 2.6223E-03 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 195 $ 78,514,282 $ 19,279,283 $ 975,000,000 1 10 2.80E-02 2.7200E-02 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 179 $ 13,262,383 $ 7,869,761 $ 447,500,000 0 0 2.58E-02 2.5128E-02 $ 
69 

Cause Code: T221-Vertical split head 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 4 $ 2,121,676 $ 715,889 $ 40,000,000 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 1

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 76 $ 26,428,253 $ 6,245,942 $ 380,000,000 2 7 1.16E-02 1.1419E-02 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 116 $ 6,387,072 $ 3,535,634 $ 290,000,000 0 0 1.71E-02 1.6829E-02 $ 

Cause Code: T222-Worn rail 

Occurrence Occurrence Total Other Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Rate per Probability Damage Total Injuries 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M (Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 18 $ 4,436,431 $ 1,525,366 $ 90,000,000 0 0 3.23E-03 3.2233E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 24 $ 789,284 $ 1,032,703 $ 60,000,000 0 0 4.13E-03 4.1086E-03 $ 
Cause Code: T223-Rail Condition - Dry rail, freshly ground rail 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 9 $ $ ,750 - $ 10,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: T299-Other rail and joint bar defects 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 9 $ 6,172,746 $ 1,909,366 $ 90,000,000 0 1 1.86E-03 1.8522E-03 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 56 $ 36,509,868 $ 6,950,146 $ 280,000,000 0 5 8.73E-03 8.6581E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 37 $ 1,525,257 $ 1,189,426 $ 92,500,000 0 10 6.02E-03 5.9834E-03 $ 

70 
71 

Cause Code: T301-Derail, defective 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Rate per Probability 

Damage Total Injuries 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 13,500 $ - $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 

$ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 $ 70,258 $ 100,210 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 

$ 

Cause Code: T302-Expansion joint failed/malfunctioned 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Rate per Probability 

Damage Total Injuries 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Oc

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 113, $ 443 $ 8,859 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 
72 

Cause Code: T303-Guard rail loose/broken or mislocated 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 763,900 $ 962,000 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 

$ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 6 $ 140,629 $ 141,280 $ 15,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 

$ 

Cause Code: T304-Railroad crossing frog, worn or broken 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Occ

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 215,000 $ 13,752 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 $ 48,000 $ 45,000 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 
Cause Code: T307-Spring/power switch mechanical failure 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 1 $ $ 8,726 47,100 $ 10,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 7 25 $ 7,255 $ 383,888 $ 17,500,000 0 0 1.54E-03 1.5352E-03 

Cause Code: T308-Stock rail worn, broken, disconnected 

Occurrence 

Total Other Occurrence A

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Probability 

Damage Rate per Million 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Train Miles 

Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 4 $ 1,261,522 $ 468,487 $ 20,000,000 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 19 $ 486,014 $ 474,936 $ 47,500,000 0 0 3.38E-03 3.3721E-03 $ 

73 
74 

Cause Code: T309-Switch (hand operation) stand mechanism defect 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 $ 1,026 $ 85,000 $ 10,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 3 $ $ 1,913 107,912 $ 10,000,000 0 1 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 6 $ 133,210 $ 66,186 $ 15,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 

Cause Code: T310-Switch connect/operate rod broke/defect 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability 

Damage 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) O

Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 90 $ 6,948 $ 1,727,939 $ 10,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 

$ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 92 $ 6,650 $ 98,917 $ 10,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 3 17 $ 4,717 $ 75,136 $ 7,500,000 0 0 8.73E-04 8.7191E-04 $ 
75 

Cause Code: T311-Switch damaged or out of adjustment 

Occurrence 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Probability 

Damage per Million Train 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Miles Oc

Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 4 $ 252,626 $ 85,000 $ 20,000,000 0 1 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 39 $ 1,707,400 $ 1,029,711 $ 97,500,000 0 0 6.31E-03 6.2680E-03 $ 

Cause Code: T312-Switch lug/crank broken 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Occurrence Adj Co

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Damage per Million Train Probability (Cjk) p

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries (Assumed) Miles in 1 M Train Miles Occu

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 $ 469,063 $ 318,345 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 5,

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 5 $ 137,700 $ 38,590 $ 12,500,000 0 0 1.21E-03 1.2100E-03 $ 2,
76 

Cause Code: T313-Switch out of adjustment insufficient anchoring 

Occurrence Occurrence 

Total Other Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Rate per Probability Adj 

Damage Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries Million Train (Cjk) in 1 M per O

(Assumed) Miles Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 1 371 $ ,930 $ 125,960 $ 5,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 7 471 $ ,990 $ 256,914 $ 17,500,000 0 2 1.54E-03 1.5352E-03 $ 

Cause Code: T314-Switch point worn or broken 

Occurrence Total Other Damage Occurrence Rate per Adj Co

Type of Accident/Incident # of Occurrences Total Eqpt Damage Total Track Damage Total Fatalities Total Injuries Probability (Cjk) in 1 (Assumed) Million Train Miles Occ

M Train Miles

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 $ 345,614.00 $ 59,800.00 $ 10,000,000.00 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 10

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 19 $ 3,435,652.00 $ 3,491,306.00 $ 95,000,000.00 0 8 3.38E-03 3.3721E-03 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 141 $ 3,814,337.00 $ 5,567,153.00 $ 352,500,000.00 0 14 2.06E-02 2.0150E-02 $ 2
77 

Cause Code: T315-Switch rod worn, bent, broken, etc. 

Occurrence 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Probability 

Damage per Million Train 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Miles O

Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 2 $ 51,500 $ 17,000 $ 10,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 8 $ 151,436 $ 246,669 $ 20,000,000 0 0 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 $ 

Cause Code: T316-Turnout frog (rigid) worn or broken 

Occurrence Total Other Occurrence Rate Adj 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Probability Damage per Million Train 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries (Cjk) in 1 M (Assumed) Miles Oc

Train Miles

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 1 6 $ $ ,500 120,777 $ 10,000,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 4 63 $ 2,390 $ 1,098,604 $ 20,000,000 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 2 48,30 $ $ 0 50,000 $ 5,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 
78 

Cause Code: T317-Turnout frog (self-guarded), worn or broken 

Occurrence 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Probability 

Damage per Million Train 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries (Cjk) in 1 M 

(Assumed) Miles O

Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Cause Code: T318-Turnout frog (spring) worn or broken 

Occurrence Total Other Occurrence Rate Ad

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Probability Damage Total Fatalities Total Injuries per Million Train 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage (Cjk) in 1 M (Assumed) Miles O

Train Miles

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 2 $ 1,339,697 $ 510,250 $ 20,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 7 83 $ 6,884 $ 386,001 $ 35,000,000 0 1 1.54E-03 1.5352E-03 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 6 $ 92,693 $ 327,076 $ 15,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 
79 

Cause Code: T319-Switch point gap(between switch point and stock rail) 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Occurrence 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Adj C

Damage per Million Train Probability (Cjk) 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries per Oc

(Assumed) Miles in 1 M Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 6 9 $ 02,497 $ 187,787 $ 30,000,000 0 0 1.38E-03 1.3738E-03 $ 5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 49 $ 1,405,142 $ 1,536,328 $ 122,500,000 0 2 7.74E-03 7.6797E-03 $ 2

Cause Code: T399-Other frog, switch, track appliance defect 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Occurrence Adj Co

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Damage per Million Train Probability (Cjk) pe

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries (Assumed) Miles in 1 M Train Miles Occur

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 2 $ 778,185 $ 94,376 $ 20,000,000 0 0 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 10,4

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 16 $ 5,544,978 $ 2,554,085 $ 80,000,000 0 0 2.93E-03 2.9241E-03 $ 5,5

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 31 $ 893,118 $ 541,025 $ 77,500,000 0 1 5.15E-03 5.1240E-03 $ 2,5
80 

Cause Code: T401-Bridge misalignment or failure 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Occurrence 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Adj Co

Damage per Million Train Probability (Cjk) in 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries per Occ

(Assumed) Miles 1 M Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 2 $ 6,028,558 $ 1,265,558 $ 20,000,000 0 1 6.95E-04 6.9474E-04 $ 14,Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 9 $ 2,256,616 $ 1,734,604 $ 45,000,000 0 0 1.86E-03 1.8522E-03 $ 5,Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 17 $ 646,283 $ 3,719,841 $ 42,500,000 0 6 3.08E-03 3.0740E-03 $ 3,

Cause Code: T402-Flangeway clogged 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Occurrence A

Type of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total # of Occurrences Damage per Million Train Probability (Cjk) in 1 (S

Accident/Incident Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries (Assumed) Miles M Train Miles Occ

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 1 $ 33,000 $ 5,500 $ 2,500,000 0 0 5.08E-04 5.0783E-04 $ 2
81 

Cause Code: T403-Engineering design or construction 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Occurrence Adj C

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Damage per Million Train Probability (Cjk) in 1 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries (Assumed) Miles M Train Miles Occ

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 4 $ 257,514 $ 198,550 $ 10,000,000 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 

Cause Code: T404-Catenary system defect 

Occurrence Rate Occurrence 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Other Damage Total Total Adj Co

per Million Train Probability (Cjk) in 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage (Assumed) Fatalities Injuries per Occ

Miles 1 M Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 
82 

Cause Code: T499-Other way and structure defect 

Total Other Occurrence Rate Occurrence 

Type of # of Total Eqpt Total Track Total Total Adj Cost (

Damage per Million Train Probability (Cjk) in 1 

Accident/Incident Occurrences Damage Damage Fatalities Injuries per Occurr

(Assumed) Miles M Train Miles 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Collision 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

High Speed (50 mph or greater) Derailment 0 - $ $ - $ - 0 0 3.01E-04 3.0068E-04 $ 

Medium Speed (20 to 49 mph) Derailment 4 $ 1,404,430 $ 228,945 $ 20,000,000 0 0 1.04E-03 1.0431E-03 $ 5,408

Low Speed (0 to 19 mph) Derailment 8 $ 378,114 $ 201,326 $ 20,000,000 0 1 1.70E-03 1.6945E-03 $ 2,759
83 

Appendix 2. Tables of Base Case Risk for Some US Class 1 Railroads

Data Common to All Railroads 

Accident/Incident Type: All Derailments/Collisions 

Data Analysis Period: 1996-2007 

Train Type: All 

Track Type: Main 

Hazmat: Not Included 

Damage Amount: All 

Reference: FRA RAIRS Database 

Fatality Cost 

(Assumed) 

Injury Cost 

(Assumed) 

Low-Speed Other 

Damages (Assumed) 

Medium-Speed Other 

Damages (Assumed) 

High-Speed Other 

Damages (Assumed) 

3,000,000 1,500,000 2,500,000 5,000,000 10,000,000 

Base Case Description: 

Operation with traffic control system (freight operations with speeds exceeding 49 mph and 

passenger operations with speeds exceeding 59 mph, but below 79 mph in both cases). Risk 

Calculation uses historical data on RAIRS cause codes that could be prevented from resulting in 

accidents/incidents, by deploying a PTC System. The cause codes considered are: 

 Human Factors cause code groups H1xx, H2xx, H4xx, H6xx, H7xx, and H9xx, with a 

few exceptions; 

 Track/Roadbed cause code groups T0xx, T1xx, T2xx, T3xx, and T4xx, with a few 

exceptions; 

These cause codes, taken from Appendix C of the FRA Guide for Preparing Accident/Incident 

Reports, are listed in Table A2.1 below, for reference. 

Table A2.2 shows the Base Case risk values calculated per the procedure described in Section 

5.3 of this report. 
84 

Table A2.1. PTC-Preventable Accident Cause Codes 

(Ref: FRA Guide for Preparing Accident/Incident Reports, Appendix C) 

Category Cause Code or Failure Description 

TRACK, ROADBED AND STRUCTURES 

Roadbed 

T001 Roadbed settled or soft 

T002 Washout/rain/slide/flood/snow/ice damage to track 

T099 Other roadbed defects (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Track Geometry 

T101 Cross level of track irregular (at joints) 

T102 Cross level of track irregular (not at joints) 

T103 Deviation from uniform top of rail profile 

T104 Disturbed ballast section 

T105 Insufficient ballast section 

T106 Superelevation improper, excessive, or insufficient 

T107 Superelevation runoff improper 

T108 Track alignment irregular (other than buckled/sunkink) 

T109 Track alignment irregular (buckled/sunkink) 

T110 Wide gage (due to defective or missing crossties) 

T111 Wide gage (due to defective or missing spikes or other rail fasteners) 

T112 Wide gage (due to loose, broken, or defective gage rods) 

T113 Wide gage (due to worn rails) 

T199 Other track geometry defects (Provide detailed description in narrative 

 

Rail, Joint Bar and Rail Anchoring 

T201 Broken Rail - Bolt hole crack or break 

T202 Broken Rail – Base 
85 

T203 Broken Rail - Weld (plant) 

T204 Broken Rail - Weld (field) 

T205 Defective or missing crossties (use code T110 if results in wide gage) 

T206 Defective spikes or missing spikes or other rail fasteners (use code T111 if 

results in wide gage) 

T207 Broken Rail - Detail fracture from shelling or head check 

T208 Broken Rail - Engine burn fracture 

T210 Broken Rail - Head and web separation (outside joint bar limits) 

T211 Broken Rail - Head and web separation (within joint bar limits) 

T212 Broken Rail - Horizontal split head 

T213 Joint bar broken (compromise) 

T214 Joint bar broken (insulated) 

T215 Joint bar broken (noninsulated) 

T216 Joint bolts, broken, or missing 

T217 Mismatched rail-head contour 

T218 Broken Rail - Piped rail 

T219 Rail defect with joint bar repair 

T220 Broken Rail - Transverse/compound fissure 

T221 Broken Rail - Vertical split head 

 T222 Worn rail 

T223 Rail Condition - Dry rail, freshly ground rail. 

T299 Other rail and joint bar defects (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Frogs, Switches and Track Appliances 

T301 Derail, defective 

T302 Expansion joint failed or malfunctioned 

T303 Guard rail loose/broken or mislocated 

T304 Railroad crossing frog, worn or broken 

T307 Spring/power switch mechanism malfunction 

T308 Stock rail worn, broken or disconnected 

T309 Switch (hand operated) stand mechanism broken, loose, or worn 

T310 Switch connecting or operating rod is broken or defective 

T311 Switch damaged or out of adjustment 
86 

T312 Switch lug/crank broken 

T313 Switch out of adjustment because of insufficient rail anchoring 

T314 Switch point worn or broken 

T315 Switch rod worn, bent, broken, or disconnected 

T316 Turnout frog (rigid) worn, or broken 

T317 Turnout frog (self guarded), worn or broken 

T318 Turnout frog (spring) worn, or broken 

T319 Switch point gapped (between switch point and stock rail) 

T399 Other frog, switch and track appliance defects (Provide detailed description in 

narrative) 

 

Other Way and Structure 

T401 Bridge misalignment or failure 

T402 Flangeway clogged 

T403 Engineering design or construction 

T404 Catenary system defect 

T499 Other way and structure defect (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

HUMAN FACTORS 

Employee Physical Condition 

H101 Impairment of efficiency or judgment because of drugs or alcohol 

H102 Incapacitation due to injury or illness 

H103 Employee restricted in work or motion 

H104 Employee asleep 

H199 Employee physical condition, other (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Flagging, Fixed, Hand and Radio Signals 

H204 Fixed Signal, failure to comply 

H205 Flagging, improper or failure to flag 

H206 Flagging signal, failure to comply 

H207 Hand signal, failure to comply 

H208 Hand signal improper 

H209 Hand signal, failure to give/receive 
87 

H210 Radio communication, failure to comply 

H211 Radio communication, improper 

H212 Radio communication, failure to give/receive 

H215 Block Signal, failure to comply 

H216 Inerlocking Signal, failure to comply 

H217 Failure to observe hand signals given during a wayside inspection of moving 

train 

H218 Failure to comply with failed equipment detector warning or with applicable train 

inspection rules. 

H219 Fixed signal (other than automatic block or interlocking signal), improperly 

displayed. 

H220 Fixed signal (other than automatic block or interlocking signal), failure to comply. 

H221 Automatic block or interlocking signal displaying a stop indication - failure to 

comply. 

H222 Automatic block or interlocking signal displaying other than a stop indication - 

failure to comply. 

H299 Other signal causes (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Main Track Authority 

H401 Failure to stop train in clear 

H402 Motor car or on-track equipment rules, failure to comply 

H403 Movement of engine(s) or car(s) without authority (railroad employee) 

H404 Train order, track warrant, track bulletin, or timetable authority, failure to comply 

H405 Train orders, track warrants, direct traffic control, track bulletins, radio, error in 

preparation, transmission or delivery 

H406 Train orders, track warrants, direct traffic control, track bulletins, written, error in 

preparation, transmission or delivery 

H499 Other main track authority causes (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Speed 

H601 Coupling speed excessive 

H602 Switching movement, excessive speed 

H603 Train on main track inside yard limits, excessive speed 

H604 Train outside yard limits, in block signal or interlocking territory, excessive speed 

H605 Failure to comply with restricted speed in connection with the restrictive 

indication of a block or interlocking signal 
88 

H606 Train outside yard limits in nonblock territory, excessive speed 

H607 Failure to comply with restricted speed or its equivalent not in connection with a 

block or interlocking signal 

H699 Speed, other (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Switches, Use of 

H701 Spring Switch not cleared before reversing 

H702 Switch improperly lined 

H703 Switch not latched or locked 

H704 Switch previously run through 

H705 Moveable point switch frog improperly lined 

H706 Switch improperly lined, radio controlled 

H707 Radio controlled switch not locked effectively 

H799 Use of switches, other (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 

Miscellaneous 

H991 Tampering with safety/protective device(s) 

H992 Operation of locomotive by uncertified/unqualified person 

H993 Human Factor - track 

H994 Human Factor - Signal installation or maintenance error (field) 

H99A Human Factor - Signal - Train Control - Installation or maintenance error (shop). 

H99B Human Factor - Signal - Train Control - Operator Input Onboard computer 

incorrect data entry. 

H99C Human Factor - Signal - Train Control - Operator Input Onboard computer 

incorrect data provided 

H99D Computer system design error (non vendor) 

H99E Computer system configuration/management error (non vendor) 

H995 Human Factor - motive power and equipment 

H996 Oversized loads or Excess Height/Width cars, misrouted or switched. 

H997 Motor car or other on-track equipment rules (other than main track authority) - 

Failure to Comply. 

H999 Other train operation/human factors (Provide detailed description in narrative) 

 
89 

Table A2.2. Base Case Risk Data on Some US Class I Railroads 

Railroad: ARR 

Average Annual Severity Cost $ 3,403,682 

Average Annual Train Miles 884,618 

Base Case Risk ($ per Mile) $ 3.85 

Railroad: ATK 

Average Annual Severity Cost $ 135,355,309 

Average Annual Train Miles 35,556,149 

Base Case Risk ($ per Mile) $ 3.81 

Railroad: BNSF 

Average Annual Severity Cost $ 361,894,633 

Average Annual Train Miles 156,564,674 

 Base Case Risk ($ per Mile) $ 2.31 

Railroad: CN 

Average Annual Severity Cost $ 79,297,450 

Average Annual Train Miles 18,099,078 

Base Case Risk ($ per Mile) $ 4.38 

Railroad: CP 

Average Annual Severity Cost $ 22,538,693 

Average Annual Train Miles 8,662,139 

Base Case Risk ($ per Mile) $ 2.60 
90 

Railroad: CSX 

Average Annual Severity Cost $ 227,793,936 

Average Annual Train Miles 88,705,706 

Base Case Risk ($ per Mile) $ 2.57 

Railroad: DME 

Average Annual Severity Cost $ 64,320,480 

Average Annual Train Miles 2,659,733 

Base Case Risk ($ per Mile) $ 24.18 

Railroad: KCS 

Average Annual Severity Cost $ 66,614,040 

Average Annual Train Miles 8,037,165 

Base Case Risk ($ per Mile) $ 8.29 

Railroad: UP 

Average Annual Severity Cost $ 392,285,255 

Average Annual Train Miles 167,174,845 

Base Case Risk ($) $ 2.35 
91 

Appendix 3. Test Case Applications of PRAM 

Test Case 1: Train Protection Warning System 

A simple train protection warning system (TPWS) shown in Figure A3.1 is used as an example 

to help clarify the PRAM steps. 

The desired function of the TPWS is to perform train speed supervision relative to traffic ahead, 

and to provide driver warning and then Emergency Brake application to prevent signals passed 

at danger (SPADs). This system is intended to be used on a Railroad with heavy passenger train 

traffic, and the goal is to reduce the risk of fatalities due to SPADs to a tolerable level. The 

following steps are as outlined in Section 5 of this Report, using the same parameter 

terminology and definitions. 

Figure A3.1. A Simple Train Protection Warning System 

1. Onboard Computer (OBC) 

2. Transponder Transmission Module

3. Transponder Antenna

4. Driver’s Console

5. Tachometer

6. Emergency Brake Interface 

7. Signal Control Logic 

8. Line side Electronic Unit 

9. Transponder 

7

8

9

3

2 1

4

6 5

The risk assessment is done on the basis of a train equipped with the TPWS making a 200-mile 

trip and encountering an average of 2 signals every mile. Hazard Identification gives an initial 

set of five critical hazards associated with the TPWS, due to wrong-side failures that could 

occur at any time during the trip. These are listed in Table A3.1. 
92 

Table A3.1. Initial Set of Hazards in TPWS 

Hazard # Hazard Description 

1 TPWS Onboard Computer fails to recognize a signal at Danger 

2 TPWS Onboard Computer fails to provide driver warning 

3 TPWS Onboard Computer fails to command Emergency Brake application when needed 

4 TPWS Onboard Computer fails to act on overspeed condition 

5 TPWS Line-side Electronic Unit fails to recognize a signal at Danger 

In this analysis, the risk analyst uses following input data: 

 

 Duration of any hazard is considered to be 200 train-miles, because any hazard could 

manifest at any time during a train trip. 

 During the 200-mile journey, on the average there is a 50 percent chance that a signal 

being approached is at Green, as determined by the traffic densities and other conditions 

on the railroad. There is a 25 percent chance that the signal is at Yellow, and a 25 

percent chance that it will be at Red. 

 When the TPWS incurs Hazards 1, 2, 3, or 5, the responsibility for safe operation of the 

train falls back to the Engineer. The probability of the Engineer passing a signal at 

danger (Yellow or Red) (failure of first circumstantial barrier) under these conditions is 

the sum of the Cjk values for the following cause codes: H1xx, H215, H216, H221, 

H222, and H299. 

 When the TPWS incurs Hazard 4, the speed control of the train becomes the Engineer’s 

responsibility. The accident cause codes that come into play under this condition are: 

H1xx, H604, H605, H607, and H699. 

Using the above data and starting with a set of initial hazard rates for the five hazards listed in 

Table A3.1, the application of the PRAM Tool provides a Risk Assessment Report shown on 

the next 15 pages. The selected initial hazard rates are to be adjusted in an iterative manner 

until a set of tolerable hazard rates is obtained. 
TPWS RISK ASSESSMENT REPORT 

VERSION: 1 

Hazard# 1 - Fails to recognize a signal aspect 

93 

SYSTEM : Simple TPWS RISK ANALYST : CSK 

REVIEWED BY :(To be entered SUB SYSTEM : Onboard Computer HAZARD LOG manually) 

FUNCTION : Signal Aspect APPROVED BY : Chinnarao Recognition 

HAZARD NO : 1 

HAZARD NAME : Fails to INITIAL HAZARD RATE: 

recognize a signal aspect 1.000e-05 Per Train Mile HAZARD DURATION: 2.000e+02 

Train Mile 

VALIDATION(EVIDENCE OF 

HAZARD MITIGATION HAZARD MITIGATION) 

MEASURES : (to be described by System HAZARD DESCRIPTION : (to be described by System Design Analyst and verified by 

Design Analyst) the Risk Analyst after system 

design and V&V are completed) 

TPWS Onboard Computer fails to 

process signal aspect information 

received from the wayside LEU, 

due to failures in the hardware or 

software performing this function. 

OBC fails to provide warning of an 

approaching signal at Danger. Train 

will be under Engineer's control. 

Accidents could occur when 

Engineer passes the signal at 

Danger. Probability of Engineer 

passing a signal at Danger is due to 

any of the cause codes H1xx, 

H215, H216, H221, H222, and 

H299. 
94 

Event Tree 
95 

Accident Rates

Hazard No : 1 

Hazard Name : Fails to recognize a signal aspect 

Initial Hazard Rate : 1.000e-05 (Per Train Mile) 

Accident Rate Accident Name Accident Probability (Per Train Mile) 

A11 = HS C/D C11 = 2.000e-09 AR11 = 8.000e-12 

A12 = M or L Speed C/D C12 = 1.100e-08 AR12 = 4.430e-11 

Collective Risks 

Adjusted Cost Collective Risk Accident Name (Dollars) (Dollars/ Train Mile) 

S11 = A11 = HS C/D CR11 = 4.120e-05 5160000.00 

S12 = A12 = M or L Speed C/D CR12 = 8.270e-04 18670000.00 

 TCR1 = 8.680e-04 
96 

Hazard# 2 - Fails to provide Driver warning 

SYSTEM : Simple TPWS RISK ANALYST : CSK 

REVIEWED BY :(To be entered SUB SYSTEM : Onboard Computer HAZARD LOG manually) 

FUNCTION : Signal Aspect APPROVED BY : Chinnarao Recognition 

HAZARD NO : 2 

HAZARD NAME : Fails to provide INITIAL HAZARD RATE: 

Driver warning 1.000e-05 Per Train Mile HAZARD DURATION: 2.000e+02 

Train Mile 

VALIDATION(EVIDENCE OF 

HAZARD MITIGATION HAZARD MITIGATION) 

MEASURES : (to be described by system HAZARD DESCRIPTION : (to be described by system design analyst and verified by 

design analyst) the risk analyst after system 

design and V&V are completed) 

OBC fails to provide warning of an 

approaching signal at Danger. Train 

will be under Engineer's control. 

Accidents could occur when 

Engineer passes the signal at Danger. Probability of Engineer 

passing a signal at Danger is due to 

any of the cause codes H1xx, 

H215, H216, H221, H222, and 

H299. 
97 

Event Tree 
98 

Accident Rates

Hazard No : 2 

Hazard Name : Fails to provide Driver warning 

Initial Hazard Rate : 1.000e-05 (Per Train Mile) 

Accident Rate Accident Name Accident Probability (Per Train Mile) 

A21 = HS C?D C21 = 2.000e-09 AR21 = 8.000e-12 

A22 = M or L Speed C/D C22 = 2.000e-09 AR22 = 8.000e-11 

Collective Risks 

Adjusted Cost Collective Risk Accident Name (Dollars) (Dollars/ Train Mile) 

S21 = A21 = HS C?D CR21 = 4.120e-05 5160000.00 

S22 = A22 = M or L Speed C/D CR22 = 1.490e-03 18670000.00 

 TCR2 = 1.530e-03 
99 

Hazard# 3 - Fails to act on overspeed condition 

SYSTEM : Simple TPWS RISK ANALYST : CSK 

REVIEWED BY :(To be entered SUB SYSTEM : Onboard Computer HAZARD LOG manually) 

FUNCTION : Provide Speed APPROVED BY : Chinnarao Supervision 

HAZARD NO : 3 

HAZARD NAME : Fails to act on INITIAL HAZARD RATE: 

overspeed condition 1.000e-05 Per Train Mile HAZARD DURATION: 2.000e+02 

Train Mile 

VALIDATION(EVIDENCE OF 

HAZARD MITIGATION HAZARD MITIGATION) 

MEASURES : (to be described by system HAZARD DESCRIPTION : (to be described by system design analyst and verified by 

design analyst) the risk analyst after system 

design and V&V are completed) 

The Overspeed protection function 

of the OBC is not available. Under 

this condition, the speed control of 

the train becomes the Engineer’s responsibility. The accident cause 

codes that come into play under 

this condition are: H1xx, H604, 

H605, H607, and H699. 
100 

Accident Rates

Hazard No : 3 

Hazard Name : Fails to act on overspeed condition 

Initial Hazard Rate : 1.000e-05 (Per Train Mile) 

Accident Rate Accident Name Accident Probability (Per Train Mile) 

A31 = Fails to act on overspeed C31 = 1.330e-08 AR31 = 5.320e-11 condition_Event_LSD 

A32 = Fails to act on overspeed C32 = 7.970e-09 AR32 = 3.180e-11 condition_Event_MSD 

A33 = Fails to act on overspeed C33 = 2.990e-09 AR33 = 1.190e-11 condition_Event_HSD 

A34 = Fails to act on overspeed C34 = 4.000e-09 AR34 = 1.600e-11 condition_Event_LSC 

A35 = Fails to act on overspeed C35 = 3.300e-09 AR35 = 1.320e-11 condition_Event_MSC 

A36 = Fails to act on overspeed C36 = 2.700e-09 AR36 = 1.080e-11 condition_Event_HSC 

Collective Risks 

Adjusted Cost Collective Risk Accident Name (Dollars) (Dollars/ Train Mile) 

A31 = Fails to act on overspeed S31 = CR31 = 8.210e-05 condition_Event_LSD 1544000.00 

A32 = Fails to act on overspeed S32 = CR32 = 9.240e-05 condition_Event_MSD 2900000.00 

A33 = Fails to act on overspeed S33 = CR33 = 2.520e-04 condition_Event_HSD 21100000.00 

A34 = Fails to act on overspeed S34 = CR34 = 2.560e-05 condition_Event_LSC 1600000.00 

A35 = Fails to act on overspeed S35 = CR35 = 3.700e-05 condition_Event_MSC 2810000.00 

A36 = Fails to act on overspeed S36 = 0.00 CR36 = 0.000e+00 condition_Event_HSC 

 TCR3 = 4.890e-04 
101 

Hazard# 4 - Fails to recognize signal aspect 

SYSTEM : Simple TPWS RISK ANALYST : CSK 

SUB SYSTEM : Line-side HAZARD LOG REVIEWED BY :(To be entered 

Electronic Unit manually) 

FUNCTION : Decode and Transmit APPROVED BY : Chinnarao Signal Aspect Information 

HAZARD NO : 4 

HAZARD NAME : Fails to INITIAL HAZARD RATE: 

recognize signal aspect 1.000e-04 Per Train Mile HAZARD DURATION: 2.000e+02 

Train Mile 

VALIDATION(EVIDENCE OF 

HAZARD MITIGATION HAZARD MITIGATION) 

MEASURES : (to be described by system HAZARD DESCRIPTION : (to be described by system design analyst and verified by 

design analyst) the risk analyst after system 

design and V&V are completed) 

TPWS LEU fails to process signal 

aspect state correctly. OBC cannot 

provide warning of an approaching 

signal at Danger. Train will be 

under Engineer's control. 

Accidents could occur when Engineer passes the signal at 

Danger. Probability of Engineer 

passing a signal at Danger is due to 

any of the cause codes H1xx, 

H215, H216, H221, H222, and 

H299. 
102 

Event Tree 
103 

Accident Rates

Hazard No : 4 

Hazard Name : Fails to recognize signal aspect 

Initial Hazard Rate : 1.000e-04 (Per Train Mile) 

Accident Rate Accident Name Accident Probability (Per Train Mile) 

A41 = HS C/D C41 = 2.000e-09 AR41 = 8.000e-11 

A42 = M or L Speed C/D C42 = 1.100e-08 AR42 = 4.430e-10 

Collective Risks 

Adjusted Cost Collective Risk Accident Name (Dollars) (Dollars/ Train Mile) 

S41 = A41 = HS C/D CR41 = 4.120e-04 5160000.00 

S42 = A42 = M or L Speed C/D CR42 = 8.270e-03 18670000.00 

 TCR4 = 8.680e-03 
104 

Summary 

Initial Hazard Rate Total Collective Risk Hazard Name ( PerTrain Mile) (Dollars/Train Mile) 

H1 = Fails to recognize a signal aspect 1.000e-05 8.680e-04 

H2 = Fails to provide Driver warning 1.000e-05 1.530e-03 

H3 = Fails to act on overspeed condition 1.000e-05 4.890e-04 

H4 = Fails to recognize signal aspect 1.000e-04 8.680e-03 

ASPL(Base Case Risk) Grand Total Collective Risk GTCR <= ASPL? (Dollars/Train Mile) (Dollars/Train Mile) 

5.000e-01 1.150e-02 Yes. IHR = THR. 
105 

Test Case 2: Vital PTC System 

A vital PTC System shown in Figures A3.2 at an architectural level is used as another case 

study to show the application of the PRAM Tool. 

Figure A3.2. Vital PTC System Architecture 

The PTC System shown in Figure A3.2 is intended to meet the basic safety requirements of the 

49 CFR Part 236 Subpart I [16]. This system consists of an Office Segment, a Locomotive 

Segment, and a Wayside Segment, all linked by a Data Radio Network for exchanging data 

with each other using suitable data radios. The Office Segment consists of a traditional 

Computer Aided Dispatch (CAD) system supported by a vital Signaling Logic Processor (SLP). 

The Train-borne Segment consists of a vital Onboard Logic Processor (OLP) with associated 

displays for train crews, and with interfaces to train braking and propulsion subsystems. The 

Wayside Segment includes vital Wayside Interface Units to control and monitor wayside 

appliances such as switches, signals (in signaled territory). The Wayside Segment also includes 

detection of and reaction to wayside detector devices (e.g. broken rail detectors), as well as 

authority limit warning devices for on-track equipment. 

Wayside 

Segment 

Train-borne Segment 

Office Segment 

Computer-Aided 

Dispatch System 

Signaling Logic 

Processor 

Wayside 

Interface Unit 

Wayside Appliances 

(Switches, Signals, 

Hazard Detectors, etc.)

Onboard 

Logic 

Processor 

Data Radio 

Network 

Train 

Equipment 
106 

The dispatchers coordinate and manage train movements, monitor the operation of the signaling 

and control system, and access stored information and reports regarding train performance, 

composition, and scheduling, using the CAD system. The CAD system uses a built-in track 

database to develop train route plans and present the dispatcher with an integrated plan for all 

trains. It issues directional authorities to trains and releases blocks (based on the OLP 

indicating them as vacated) behind the train, via the SLP, without dispatcher intervention. The 

CAD system creates and delivers, after validation by the SLP, electronic movement authorities 

and temporary speed limits for each train. 

The vital SLP verifies and validates the authorities and restrictions using data for defined block 

boundaries, enforceable limits of train movement, and train acknowledgements of authority 

blocks released. The SLP contains speed limit files, track bulletin line items (e.g., Forms A, B, 

C and S), and all current train and maintenance employee authorities for the purpose of 

enforcement of safe commands. Unsafe commands from the CAD system, and field data which 

could render authorities unsafe, will be rejected by the SLP. 

The Wayside Segment includes monitoring and reporting devices to supplement the traditional 

field signaling equipment. Each of the wayside devices has a uniquely identified radio 

transceiver for communications with the OLP via the locomotive data radio, allowing the 

device to transmit and receive specific wayside device messages. Wayside devices that are 

monitored include various types of switches, signal aspects and track integrity circuits, and 

wayside detectors (e.g., hot bearing detectors, slide detectors, and dragging equipment 

detectors). The state of each monitored device is detected and interpreted on-board the 

locomotive and, if appropriate, transmitted to the SLP and the CAD system. 

The vital OLP receives routing information, and vital movement authorities, bulletin line items, 

etc., generated by the CAD and verified and encoded by the SLP. The OLP checks that the data 

received are complete and correct. It includes a train location determination function using a 

combination of tachometer/decelerometer inputs, Global Positioning System (GPS) data, and a 

validated track database. It implements suitable braking algorithms for different train types to 

provide vital enforcement of movement authority limits and speed restrictions. 

The risk assessment of the PTC system is done on the basis that this system is installed on a 

500-mile line of a railroad. To illustrate the use of the PRAM Tool, a partial set of five critical 

hazards associated with the system, due to wrong-side failures that could occur at any time 

during a train trip on the line, is considered. These hazards are listed in Table A3.2. 

Table A3.2. Initial Set of Hazards in PTC System 

Hazard # Hazard Description 

1 PTC Onboard Logic Processor provides false train location information 

2 PTC Onboard Logic Processor fails to call for Penalty Brake application when profile 

speed is exceeded 

3 PTC Onboard Logic Processor provides false low speed information 

4 PTC Signaling Logic Processor gives an incorrect Movement Authority Limit to a train 

5 PTC Signaling Logic Processor issues an incorrect Bulletin Line Item to a train 
107 

The risk analyst considers various accident cause codes that come into play under each hazard 

scenario and conducts the risk assessment, starting with an initial set of hazard rates for the five 

hazards. The risk assessment report generated in an iteration that gives a set of tolerable hazard 

rates for this system is shown below. 
108 

ASTS USA VITAL PTC SYSTEM RISK ASSESSMENT REPORT 

VERSION: 1 

Hazard# 1 - False Location Determination 

SYSTEM : Vital PTC System RISK ANALYST : CSK 

SUB SYSTEM : Onboard Logic REVIEWED BY :(To be entered 

Processor HAZARD LOG manually) 

FUNCTION : Train Location APPROVED BY : CM Determination 

HAZARD NO : 1 

HAZARD NAME : False INITIAL HAZARD RATE: 

Location Determination 1.000e-05 Per Train Mile HAZARD DURATION: 5.000e+02 

Train Mile 

VALIDATION(EVIDENCE OF 

HAZARD MITIGATION) HAZARD MITIGATION (to be described by system MEASURES : HAZARD DESCRIPTION : design analyst and verified by (to be described by system the risk analyst after system design analyst) design and V&V are 

completed) 

Location determination function of 

the OLP subsystem provides 

unsafe location information to the 

train protection function. 

Train will be under engineer's control, as if it's in DTC territory. 

Cause codes that could contribute 

to accidents during this hazardous 

condition: H1xx, H401, H402, 

H403, H404, and H702. 
109 

Accident Rates

Hazard No : 1 

Hazard Name : False Location Determination 

Initial Hazard Rate : 1.000e-05 (Per Train Mile) 

Accident Rate Accident Name Accident Probability (Per Train Mile) 

A11 = False Location C11 = 1.500e-08 AR11 = 1.080e-08 Determination_Event_LSC 

A12 = False Location C12 = 9.990e-09 AR12 = 7.190e-09 Determination_Event_MSC 

A13 = False Location C13 = 3.570e-09 AR13 = 2.570e-09 Determination_Event_HSC 

A14 = False Location C14 = 2.880e-08 AR14 = 2.070e-08 Determination_Event_LSD 

A15 = False Location C15 = 5.550e-09 AR15 = 3.990e-09 Determination_Event_MSD 

A16 = False Location C16 = 3.400e-09 AR16 = 2.440e-09 Determination_Event_HSD 

Collective Risks 

Adjusted Cost Collective Risk Accident Name (Dollars) (Dollars/ Train Mile) 

A11 = False Location S11 = CR11 = 3.220e-02 Determination_Event_LSC 2970000.00 

A12 = False Location S12 = CR12 = 4.840e-02 Determination_Event_MSC 6740000.00 

A13 = False Location S13 = CR13 = 2.720e-03 Determination_Event_HSC 1060000.00 

A14 = False Location S14 = CR14 = 3.460e-02 Determination_Event_LSD 1670000.00 

A15 = False Location S15 = CR15 = 9.150e-03 Determination_Event_MSD 2290000.00 

A16 = False Location S16 = CR16 = 5.210e-03 Determination_Event_HSD 2130000.00 

 TCR1 = 1.320e-01 
110 

Hazard# 2 - Fails to call for PB when profile speed is exceeded 

SYSTEM : Vital PTC System RISK ANALYST : CSK 

SUB SYSTEM : Onboard Logic REVIEWED BY :(To be entered 

Processor HAZARD LOG manually) 

FUNCTION : Call for Penalty Brake APPROVED BY : CM when profile speed is exceeded 

HAZARD NO : 2 HAZARD NAME : Fails to INITIAL HAZARD RATE: call for PB when profile 1.000e-05 Per Train Mile HAZARD DURATION: 5.000e+02 speed is exceeded 

Train Mile 

VALIDATION(EVIDENCE OF 

HAZARD MITIGATION HAZARD MITIGATION) 

MEASURES : (to be described by system HAZARD DESCRIPTION : (to be described by design analyst and verified by 

system design analyst) the risk analyst after system 

design and V&V are completed) 

The Braking function fails to call for 

a PB application when required, 

due to undetected wrong-side 

failures. 

 Train will be under Engineer's 

control, as it it's in DTC territory. 

Cause codes that could result in 

accidents when this hazardous 

condition occurs: H1xx, H215, 

H216, H220, H221, H222, H299, 

H604, H605, H607, and H699, 
111 

Accident Rates

Hazard No : 2 

Hazard Name : Fails to call for PB when profile speed is exceeded 

Initial Hazard Rate : 1.000e-05 (Per Train Mile) 

Accident Rate Accident Name Accident Probability (Per Train Mile) 

A21 = Fails to call for PB when profile C21 = 1.710e-08 AR21 = 1.230e-08 speed is exceeded_Event_LSC 

A22 = Fails to call for PB when profile C22 = 1.880e-08 AR22 = 1.350e-08 speed is exceeded_Event_MSC 

A23 = Fails to call for PB when profile C23 = 6.400e-09 AR23 = 4.600e-09 speed is exceeded_Event_HSC 

A24 = Fails to call for PB when profile C24 = 1.970e-08 AR24 = 1.420e-08 speed is exceeded_Event_LSD 

A25 = Fails to call for PB when profile C25 = 1.170e-08 AR25 = 8.470e-09 speed is exceeded_Event_MSD 

A26 = Fails to call for PB when profile C26 = 6.170e-09 AR26 = 4.440e-09 speed is exceeded_Event_HSD 

Collective Risks 

Adjusted Cost Collective Risk Accident Name (Dollars) (Dollars/ Train Mile) 

A21 = Fails to call for PB when profile S21 = CR21 = 3.550e-02 speed is exceeded_Event_LSC 2880000.00 

A22 = Fails to call for PB when profile S22 = CR22 = 9.720e-02 speed is exceeded_Event_MSC 7160000.00 

A23 = Fails to call for PB when profile S23 = CR23 = 1.240e-02 speed is exceeded_Event_HSC 2710000.00 

A24 = Fails to call for PB when profile S24 = CR24 = 2.900e-02 speed is exceeded_Event_LSD 2040000.00 

A25 = Fails to call for PB when profile S25 = CR25 = 3.040e-02 speed is exceeded_Event_MSD 3590000.00 

A26 = Fails to call for PB when profile S26 = CR26 = 5.650e-02 speed is exceeded_Event_HSD 12730000.00 

 TCR2 = 2.610e-01 
112 

Hazard# 3 - False Low Speed 

SYSTEM : Vital PTC System RISK ANALYST : CSK 

SUB SYSTEM : Onboard Logic HAZARD LOG REVIEWED BY :(To be 

Processor entered manually) 

FUNCTION : Train Speed APPROVED BY : CM Determination 

HAZARD NO : 3 

HAZARD NAME : False Low INITIAL HAZARD RATE: 

Speed 1.000e-05 Per Train Mile HAZARD DURATION: 5.000e+02 

Train Mile 

VALIDATION(EVIDENCE OF 

HAZARD MITIGATION) HAZARD MITIGATION (to be described by system MEASURES : HAZARD DESCRIPTION : design analyst and verified (to be described by by the risk analyst after system design analyst) system design and V&V are 

completed) 

The speed determination function 

of the OLP supplied false low 

speed values to the ATP function, 

due to undetected wrong-side failures. Cause codes that could 

result in accidents when this hazard 

occurs: H604, H605, HH606, H607, 

H699, and H1xx. 
113 

Accident Rates

Hazard No : 3 

Hazard Name : False Low Speed 

Initial Hazard Rate : 1.000e-05 (Per Train Mile) 

Accident Rate Accident Name Accident Probability (Per Train Mile) 

A31 = False Low Speed_Event_LSC C31 = 4.300e-09 AR31 = 3.090e-09 

A32 = False Low Speed_Event_MSC C32 = 3.600e-09 AR32 = 2.590e-09 

A33 = False Low Speed_Event_HSC C33 = 3.000e-09 AR33 = 2.160e-09 

A34 = False Low Speed_Event_LSD C34 = 1.630e-08 AR34 = 1.170e-08 

A35 = False Low Speed_Event_MSD C35 = 1.040e-08 AR35 = 7.490e-09 

A36 = False Low Speed_Event_HSD C36 = 4.670e-09 AR36 = 3.360e-09 

Collective Risks 

Adjusted Cost Collective Risk Accident Name (Dollars) (Dollars/ Train Mile) 

S31 = A31 = False Low Speed_Event_LSC CR31 = 4.450e-03 1440000.00 

S32 = A32 = False Low Speed_Event_MSC CR32 = 6.550e-03 2530000.00 

A33 = False Low Speed_Event_HSC S33 = 0.00 CR33 = 0.000e+00 

S34 = A34 = False Low Speed_Event_LSD CR34 = 2.050e-02 1750000.00 

S35 = A35 = False Low Speed_Event_MSD CR35 = 2.350e-02 3140000.00 

S36 = A36 = False Low Speed_Event_HSD CR36 = 6.420e-02 19100000.00 

 TCR3 = 1.190e-01 
114 

Hazard# 4 - Incorrect MAL 

SYSTEM : Vital PTC System RISK ANALYST : CSK 

SUB SYSTEM : Signaling Logic REVIEWED BY :(To be 

Processor HAZARD LOG entered manually) 

FUNCTION : Determine MALs APPROVED BY : CM 

HAZARD NO : 4 

HAZARD NAME : Incorrect INITIAL HAZARD RATE: 

MAL 1.000e-06 Per Train Mile HAZARD DURATION: 5.000e+02 

Train Mile 

VALIDATION(EVIDENCE OF 

HAZARD MITIGATION) HAZARD MITIGATION (to be described by system MEASURES : HAZARD DESCRIPTION : design analyst and verified (to be described by by the risk analyst after system design analyst) system design and V&V are 

completed) 

The SLP issues unsafe MALs to a 

train in its territory due to 

undetected wrong-side failures. 

Cause codes that could result in 

accidents when this hazard occurs 

are: H1xx, H401, H404, H406, and 

H499. 
115 

Accident Rates

Hazard No : 4 

Hazard Name : Incorrect MAL 

Initial Hazard Rate : 1.000e-06 (Per Train Mile) 

Accident Rate Accident Name Accident Probability (Per Train Mile) 

A41 = Incorrect MAL_Event_LSC C41 = 8.600e-09 AR41 = 4.300e-12 

A42 = Incorrect MAL_Event_MSC C42 = 7.320e-09 AR42 = 3.660e-12 

A43 = Incorrect MAL_Event_HSC C43 = 3.300e-09 AR43 = 1.650e-12 

A44 = Incorrect MAL_Event_LSD C44 = 5.650e-09 AR44 = 2.820e-12 

A45 = Incorrect MAL_Event_MSD C45 = 4.210e-09 AR45 = 2.100e-12 

A46 = Incorrect MAL_Event_HSD C46 = 3.300e-09 AR46 = 1.650e-12 

Collective Risks 

Adjusted Cost Collective Risk Accident Name (Dollars) (Dollars/ Train Mile) 

S41 = A41 = Incorrect MAL_Event_LSC CR41 = 1.710e-05 3980000.00 

S42 = A42 = Incorrect MAL_Event_MSC CR42 = 2.050e-05 5620000.00 

S43 = A43 = Incorrect MAL_Event_HSC CR43 = 3.940e-06 2390000.00 

S44 = A44 = Incorrect MAL_Event_LSD CR44 = 3.410e-06 1210000.00 

S45 = A45 = Incorrect MAL_Event_MSD CR45 = 4.160e-06 1980000.00 

S46 = A46 = Incorrect MAL_Event_HSD CR46 = 4.170e-06 2530000.00 

 TCR4 = 5.330e-05 
116 

Hazard# 5 - Issue Incorrect BLI 

SYSTEM : Vital PTC System RISK ANALYST : CSK 

SUB SYSTEM : Signaling Logic REVIEWED BY :(To be 

Processor HAZARD LOG entered manually) 

FUNCTION : Issue Bulletin Line APPROVED BY : CM 

HAZARD NO : 5 

HAZARD NAME : Issue INITIAL HAZARD RATE: 

Incorrect BLI 1.000e-06 Per Train Mile HAZARD DURATION: 5.000e+02 

Train Mile 

VALIDATION(EVIDENCE OF 

HAZARD MITIGATION) HAZARD MITIGATION (to be described by system MEASURES : HAZARD DESCRIPTION : design analyst and verified (to be described by by the risk analyst after system design analyst) system design and V&V are 

completed) 

The SLP issues unsafe Bulletin 

Line Items due to undetected 

wrong-side failures. The Engineer 

will have the responsibility to 

operate the train, as if it's in DTC 

territory. Cause codes that could 

result in accidents when this hazard 

occurs are: H1xx, H4xx, H996, 

H997, and H999. 
117 

Accident Rates

Hazard No : 5 

Hazard Name : Issue Incorrect BLI 

Initial Hazard Rate : 1.000e-06 (Per Train Mile) 

Accident Rate Accident Name Accident Probability (Per Train Mile) 

A51 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_LSC C51 = 1.310e-08 AR51 = 6.550e-12 

A52 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_MSC C52 = 1.150e-08 AR52 = 5.750e-12 

A53 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_HSC C53 = 5.370e-09 AR53 = 2.680e-12 

A54 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_LSD C54 = 1.180e-08 AR54 = 5.900e-12 

A55 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_MSD C55 = 9.870e-09 AR55 = 4.930e-12 

A56 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_HSD C56 = 5.740e-09 AR56 = 2.870e-12 

Collective Risks 

Adjusted Cost Collective Risk Accident Name (Dollars) (Dollars/ Train Mile) 

S51 = A51 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_LSC CR51 = 1.930e-05 2960000.00 

S52 = A52 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_MSC CR52 = 2.810e-05 4890000.00 

S53 = A53 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_HSC CR53 = 6.140e-06 2290000.00 

S54 = A54 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_LSD CR54 = 8.200e-06 1390000.00 

S55 = A55 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_MSD CR55 = 1.240e-05 2520000.00 

S56 = A56 = Issue Incorrect BLI_Event_HSD CR56 = 8.920e-06 3110000.00 

 TCR5 = 8.320e-05 
118 

Summary 

Initial Hazard Rate Total Collective Risk Hazard Name ( Per Train Mile) (Dollars/Train Mile) 

H1 = False Location Determination 1.000e-05 1.320e-01 

H2 = Fails to call for PB when profile 1.000e-05 2.610e-01 speed is exceeded 

H3 = False Low Speed 1.000e-05 1.190e-01 

H4 = Incorrect MAL 1.000e-06 5.330e-05 

H5 = Issue Incorrect BLI 1.000e-06 8.320e-05 

ASPL(Base Case Risk) Grand Total Collective Risk GTCR <= ASPL? (Dollars/Train Mile) (Dollars/Train Mile) 

5.000e-01 5.130e-01 No. Re-iterate