AEO2011 - Low oil prices

Pkg_v2.6.0; Prog_v1.20.1

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $5,900 $5,100 $4,900 $6,800 $7,600 $30,300

Energy Security $500 $440 $430 $610 $690 $2,670

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$340 -$300 -$290 -$280 -$290 -$1,500

Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $4,720 $4,000 $3,700 $5,710 $6,100 $24,230

3% (avg SCC) $5,620 $4,800 $4,400 $6,710 $7,300 $28,830

2.5% (avg SCC) $6,320 $5,400 $5,000 $7,610 $8,300 $32,630

3% (95th percentile) $7,820 $6,700 $6,300 $9,410 $10,300 $40,530

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $4,400 $3,700 $3,400 $4,600 $4,900 $21,000

Energy Security $370 $320 $300 $400 $440 $1,830

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$250 -$220 -$200 -$190 -$180 -$1,040

Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $3,170 $2,540 $2,140 $3,370 $3,220 $14,440

3% (avg SCC) $4,070 $3,340 $2,840 $4,370 $4,420 $19,040

2.5% (avg SCC) $4,770 $3,940 $3,440 $5,270 $5,420 $22,840

3% (95th percentile) $6,270 $5,240 $4,740 $7,070 $7,420 $30,740

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)
AEO2011 - Reference case

Pkg_v2.6.0; Prog_v1.20.1

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $9,300 $8,300 $8,100 $11,500 $12,900 $50,100

Energy Security $500 $440 $430 $610 $690 $2,670

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$340 -$300 -$290 -$280 -$290 -$1,500

Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $8,120 $7,200 $6,900 $10,410 $11,400 $44,030

3% (avg SCC) $9,020 $8,000 $7,600 $11,410 $12,600 $48,630

2.5% (avg SCC) $9,720 $8,600 $8,200 $12,310 $13,600 $52,430

3% (95th percentile) $11,220 $9,900 $9,500 $14,110 $15,600 $60,330

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $6,900 $5,900 $5,600 $7,600 $8,300 $34,300

Energy Security $370 $320 $300 $400 $440 $1,830

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$250 -$220 -$200 -$190 -$180 -$1,040

Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $5,670 $4,740 $4,340 $6,370 $6,620 $27,740

3% (avg SCC) $6,570 $5,540 $5,040 $7,370 $7,820 $32,340

2.5% (avg SCC) $7,270 $6,140 $5,640 $8,270 $8,820 $36,140

3% (95th percentile) $8,770 $7,440 $6,940 $10,070 $10,820 $44,040

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)
AEO2011 - High oil prices

Pkg_v2.6.0; Prog_v1.20.1

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $13,500 $12,000 $11,800 $16,700 $18,800 $72,800

Energy Security $500 $440 $430 $610 $690 $2,670

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$340 -$300 -$290 -$280 -$290 -$1,500

Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $12,320 $10,900 $10,600 $15,610 $17,300 $66,730

3% (avg SCC) $13,220 $11,700 $11,300 $16,610 $18,500 $71,330

2.5% (avg SCC) $13,920 $12,300 $11,900 $17,510 $19,500 $75,130

3% (95th percentile) $15,420 $13,600 $13,200 $19,310 $21,500 $83,030

Monetized Values 2014MY 2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY Sum

Costs

Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800

Benefits

Pre-tax Fuel Savings $10,100 $8,600 $8,100 $11,100 $12,000 $49,900

Energy Security $370 $320 $300 $400 $440 $1,830

Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$250 -$220 -$200 -$190 -$180 -$1,040

Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250

Reduced CO2 emissions

5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200

3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800

2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600

3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500

Net Benefits

5% (avg SCC) $8,870 $7,440 $6,840 $9,870 $10,320 $43,340

3% (avg SCC) $9,770 $8,240 $7,540 $10,870 $11,520 $47,940

2.5% (avg SCC) $10,470 $8,840 $8,140 $11,770 $12,520 $51,740

3% (95th percentile) $11,970 $10,140 $9,440 $13,570 $14,520 $59,640

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)

Estimated Societal Impacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program

(Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)