Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.0

Does the application include:

• a description of each of the assumptions used in the projections required under sections 

3.01, 3.02, 4.02(1), 4.02(2), and 4.03 of Revenue Procedure 2017-43,

• supporting evidence for the selection of those assumptions, and

• an explanation of any differences among the assumptions used for various purposes?

See section 6.03 of Revenue Procedure 2017-43.

Document 25.1 describes the assumptions used by the actuary for performing projections 

required under sections 3.01, 3.02, 4.02(1), 4.02(2), and 4.03 of Revenue Procedure 2017-43. The 

certification of critical and declining status described in 3.01 was prepared before this submission 

and includes assumptions that differ from those used to prepare other projections contained 

herein. These differences are noted.

Document 25.2 provides supporting documentation for the selection of certain assumptions 

including the actuary’s rationale for the major assumptions.

Document 25.3 provides additional disclosures relating to the use of different assumptions.

Documents 25.1-25.3 are based on the actuary’s interpretation of the requirements under 

Revenue Procedure 2017-43, Section 6.03 and Appendix B. 

CPTF000222 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.1

Document 25.1

Actuarial Assumptions and Methods Used for Projections

Investment Returns

• Dynamic Investment Targets

The deterministic and stochastic investment return assumptions (other than those used 

for the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5) are impacted by 

the new Statement of Investment Policy Guidelines recently adopted by the Trustees. The 

guidelines contain 5 target portfolios (A through E). While target portfolio A is initially in 

effect, the investment targets will dynamically change to the other portfolios if and when 

a defined cash flow metric hits certain “trigger points.” This metric is defined as the 

projected annual net cash flow (contributions less benefit payments and administrative 

expenses) as a percentage of the market value of fund assets at the beginning of the year. 

The following table summarizes the investment targets that would be in effect based on 

the value of the cash flow metric:

Annual Projected FY Cash Flows as a Percentage of 

Beginning of FY Assets 

“Trigger” > -7.5%

-7.5 to

-12.5%

-12.5% to

-17.5%

-17.5% to

-22.5% < -22.5% 

Target Portfolio A B C D E

US Equity

Large Cap 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 13.5% 8.0%

Small Cap 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0%

International Equity

Developed 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 6.0% 3.0%

Emerging Markets 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 0.5% 0.0%

Fixed Income

US Core Fixed 15.0% 27.0% 39.0% 62.0% 85.0%

High Yield / Bank Loans 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%

EMD 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Alternatives

Real Estate 20.0% 16.0% 12.0% 6.0% 0.0%

Hedge Funds 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0%

Private Equity 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Private Debt 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

CPTF000223 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.2

• Long/Short Term Expectations

All investment return assumptions used in this application reflect the investment 

community’s generally muted expectations for the first 10 years of the extended period 

(“short term”) and more robust expectations for the remainder of such period (“long 

term”).

• Deterministic Projections

o For the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5:

Time Period Term

Assumed Rate 

of Return

5/1/2020 – 4/30/2029 Short 6.50%

5/1/2029 – Long 7.50%

o For the current plan deterministic projections (i.e. without reflecting any MPRA 

suspension) in checklist item #6 (portfolio transitions assumed to occur based on 

the deterministically projected value of the cash flow metric):

Time Period Term

Assumed 

Portfolio

Assumed Rate 

of Return

7/1/2020 – 4/30/2022 Short A 6.50%1

5/1/2022 – 4/30/2025 Short B 5.85%

5/1/2025 – 4/30/2027 Short C 5.20%

5/1/2027 – 4/30/2028 Short D 4.25%

5/1/2028 – 4/30/2030 Short E 3.35%

5/1/2030 – 4/30/2033 Long E 4.35%

o For the proposed suspension and DNME deterministic projections in checklist 

items #6 and #11 (portfolio transitions assumed to occur based on the 

deterministically projected value of the cash flow metric with the proposed 

suspension):

Time Period Term

Assumed 

Portfolio

Assumed Rate 

of Return

7/1/2020 – 4/30/2030 Short A 6.50%1

5/1/2030 – 4/30/2033 Long A 7.35%

5/1/2033 – 4/30/2046 Long B 6.75%

5/1/2046 – 4/30/2052 Long A 7.35%

1

For the first 2 months of the 5/1/2020-4/30/2021 plan year, actual investment income was used. For the remaining 

10 months of such plan year (the “initial period”), a return equal to 10/12ths of 6.50% was assumed.

CPTF000224 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.3

• Stochastic Projections

Stochastic projections were performed using 5,000 trials. For each year in each trial, 

correlated sample rates of return were produced by asset class and then blended 

according to the assumed investment percentages applicable to the particular year

(portfolio transitions assumed to occur based on the deterministically projected value of 

the cash flow metric with the proposed suspension) according to the following table:

Time Period Term

Assumed

Portfolio

5/1/2021 – 4/30/2030 Short A

5/1/2030 – 4/30/2033 Long A

5/1/2033 – 4/30/2046 Long B

5/1/2046 – 4/30/2052 Long A

Assets during the “initial period” ending April 30, 2021 were not varied stochastically.1 

The underlying asset class distributions were assumed to be log-normal with 

characteristics following the composite capital market assumptions shown in Exhibit 15

of Survey of Capital Market Assumptions: 2020 Edition, published by Horizon Actuarial 

Services, LLC.

The arithmetic and geometric means, standard deviations, and correlations of applicable 

asset classes are shown below:

Expected Returns

Short-Term Long-Term Standard

Asset Class Arith Geom Arith Geom Deviation

US Large Cap 7.40% 6.16% 8.36% 7.06% 16.22%

US Small/Mid Cap 8.76% 6.85% 9.54% 7.56% 20.22%

Non-US Developed 8.33% 6.80% 9.09% 7.48% 18.05%

Non-US Emerging 10.59% 7.85% 11.33% 8.42% 24.23%

US Fixed - Core 2.75% 2.60% 3.74% 3.56% 5.47%

US Fixed - High Yield 5.36% 4.90% 6.14% 5.62% 9.75%

Non-US Fixed - Emerging 5.76% 5.16% 6.54% 5.85% 10.97%

Real Estate 7.15% 5.75% 7.91% 6.59% 16.84%

Hedge Funds 5.08% 4.74% 6.10% 5.71% 8.00%

Private Equity 11.42% 9.08% 12.54% 9.87% 21.99%

Private Debt 8.50% 7.75% 8.63% 7.85% 12.06%

CPTF000225 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.4

Correlation Matrix

Asset Class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

1US Large Cap 1.00

2US Small/Mid Cap 0.89 1.00

3Non-US Developed 0.84 0.76 1.00

4Non-US Emerging 0.73 0.69 0.80 1.00

5US Fixed - Core 0.15 0.08 0.17 0.16 1.00

6US Fixed - High Yield 0.63 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.38 1.00

7Non-US Fixed - Emerging 0.48 0.44 0.52 0.62 0.44 0.62 1.00

8 Real Estate 0.53 0.55 0.49 0.44 0.22 0.46 0.36 1.00

9Hedge Funds 0.63 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.15 0.53 0.43 0.37 1.00

10 Private Equity 0.73 0.71 0.67 0.59 0.04 0.51 0.36 0.46 0.60 1.00

11 Private Debt 0.57 0.57 0.53 0.52 0.11 0.73 0.40 0.39 0.52 0.56 1.00

Discount Rate for Calculating Present Values

For purposes of calculating the present values and funding ratios contained in this application 

(specifically in checklist items #5, 12, and 28), the following discount rate was used:

Discount Rate Used for Present Value Calculations: 7.50%

Mortality

• For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5, 

Mortality was assumed to follow the RP-2006 blue collar mortality tables projected 

generationally using the MP 2018 projection scale. Sex-distinct mortality rates were used 

for males and females. The employee tables were used for all participants not in pay 

status while the healthy annuitant tables were used for all participants in pay status.

No adjustments (such as set-forwards or rate multipliers) were applied.

• For all other projections, 

o Male mortality was assumed to follow 100% of the PRI-2012 blue collar male 

mortality tables projected generationally using the MP-2019 projection scale. The 

employee table was used for non-retired male participants and the healthy 

annuitant table was used for male participants in pay status.

o Female mortality was assumed to follow 100% of the PRI-2012 blue collar female 

mortality tables projected generationally using the MP-2019 projection scale. The 

employee table was used for non-retired female participants and the contingent 

survivor table was used for female participants in pay status.

Note that the PRI-2012 mortality study includes separate tables for annuitants and 

contingent survivors. DBVal provides for gender-distinct mortality tables, but does not

allow a separate table to be used for contingent survivors. Since the majority of pay status 

males are primary annuitants, and since the majority of females are contingent 

CPTF000226 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.5

annuitants, the healthy annuitant table was used for all pay status males and the 

contingent survivor table was used for all pay status females.

Other Demographic Assumptions

• Withdrawal

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5

Ultimate rates of withdrawal are assumed to follow table T-7 (less GAM-51 

mortality) from The Actuary’s Pension Handbook. The complete table is shown 

below:

Age

Withdrawal 

Rate Age

Withdrawal 

Rate Age

Withdrawal 

Rate 

20 0.099384 35 0.087062 50 0.042247 

21 0.098898 36 0.085466 51 0.036823 

22 0.098398 37 0.083717 52 0.031228 

23 0.097877 38 0.081815 53 0.025661 

24 0.097331 39 0.079756 54 0.020347 

25 0.096742 40 0.077543 55 0.015488 

26 0.096114 41 0.075151 56 0.011247 

27 0.095438 42 0.072556 57 0.007718 

28 0.094704 43 0.069760 58 0.004939 

29 0.093906 44 0.066758 59 0.002879 

30 0.093031 45 0.063540 60 0.001465 

31 0.092065 46 0.060053 61 0.000594 

32 0.091000 47 0.056227 62 0.000152 

33 0.089820 48 0.052000 63+ - 

34 0.088511 49 0.047337 

Additionally, special select rates are applied during the first 4 years that a participant is 

reported:

Year 

Reported

Select 

Withdrawal

Rate

First 0.50

Second 0.30

Third 0.15

Fourth 0.15

CPTF000227 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.6

o For all other projections, ultimate rates of withdrawal are assumed to follow table 

T-4 (less GAM-51 mortality) from The Actuary’s Pension Handbook. The complete 

table is shown below:

Age

Withdrawal 

Rate Age

Withdrawal 

Rate Age

Withdrawal 

Rate 

20 0.054384 35 0.046984 50 0.024773

21 0.054113 36 0.046058 51 0.021787

22 0.053838 37 0.045078 52 0.018623

23 0.053552 38 0.044052 53 0.015407

24 0.053246 39 0.042984 54 0.012285

25 0.052917 40 0.041878 55 0.009394

26 0.052555 41 0.040720 56 0.006847

27 0.052156 42 0.039496 57 0.004713

28 0.051712 43 0.038204 58 0.003024

29 0.051220 44 0.036834 59 0.001767

30 0.050672 45 0.035372 60 0.000901

31 0.050063 46 0.033768 61 0.000367

32 0.049393 47 0.031954 62 0.000094

33 0.048655 48 0.029873 63+ - 

34 0.047853 49 0.027483

Additionally, special select rates are applied during the first 4 years that a participant is 

reported:

Year 

Reported

Select 

Withdrawal

Rate

First 0.50

Second 0.25

Third 0.10

Fourth 0.10

• Disability

Rates of disability are assumed to follow 30% of the 1964 OASDI male table. The complete 

table is shown below:

CPTF000228 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.7

Age

Disability 

Rate Age

Disability 

Rate Age

Disability 

Rate 

20 0.000602 35 0.001474 50 0.006059 

21 0.000656 36 0.001583 51 0.006723 

22 0.000708 37 0.001707 52 0.007453 

23 0.000758 38 0.001850 53 0.008254 

24 0.000807 39 0.002014 54 0.009131 

25 0.000854 40 0.002201 55 0.010089 

26 0.000901 41 0.002415 56 0.011133 

27 0.000948 42 0.002658 57 0.012267 

28 0.000996 43 0.002933 58 0.013498 

29 0.001046 44 0.003244 59 0.014830 

30 0.001100 45 0.003595 60 0.016269 

31 0.001159 46 0.003987 61 0.017820 

32 0.001224 47 0.004426 62 0.019490 

33 0.001297 48 0.004915 63 0.021285 

34 0.001380 49 0.005458 64 0.023210 

65+ -

• Retirement

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item 

#5, the following rates of retirement are assumed to apply for active participants:

Age

Retirement Rate:

Without Index 

80 or 85 

Requirements

With Index 

80 or 85 

Requirements

55 0.10 0.25

56 0.10 0.25

57 0.10 0.25

58 0.10 0.25

59 0.15 0.25

60 0.15 0.25

61 0.30 0.25

62 0.30 0.40

63 0.30 0.40

64 0.05 0.40

65+ 1.00 1.00

CPTF000229 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.8

o For all other projections, the following rates of retirement are assumed to apply

for active participants:

Age

Retirement Rate:

Without Index 

80 or 85 

Requirements

With Index 

80 or 85 

Requirements

55 0.10 0.50

56 0.10 0.25

57 0.10 0.25

58 0.10 0.30

59 0.10 0.35

60 0.10 0.25

61 0.25 0.25

62 0.30 0.40

63 0.15 0.15

64 0.15 0.15

65 0.20 0.20

66 0.30 0.50

67+ 1.00 1.00

Assumptions Regarding Form and Commencement Age of Benefits

• “Take Up” Rate of Benefit Form Election

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item 

#5, future retirees were assumed to elect benefit forms according to the following 

table:

Benefit Form

Married 

Participants 

(65% Assumed)

Single 

Participants 

(35% Assumed)

Life annuity 15% 85%

Life-ten year certain 5% 15%

Joint & 50% survivor 20% n/a

Joint & 75% survivor 15% n/a

Joint & 100% survivor 45% n/a

The effect of the various elections was approximated by using a hybrid form of 

benefit consisting of:

▪ Joint and 66.25% survivor for married actives

▪ 2-year certain for unmarried actives, and

CPTF000230 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.9

▪ Joint and 43% survivor with 1 year certain for inactive vesteds.

The benefit amount was calculated using a blended conversion factor at each age 

that was the appropriately-weighted average of the actual conversion factors at 

that age.

o For purposes other than the certification of critical and declining status in checklist 

item #5, future retirees were assumed to elect benefit forms according to the 

following table:

Benefit Form

Married 

Participants 

(65% Assumed)

Single 

Participants 

(35% Assumed)

Life annuity 18% 85%

Life-ten year certain 3% 15%

Joint & 50% survivor 24% n/a

Joint & 75% survivor 12% n/a

Joint & 100% survivor 43% n/a

The various elections were explicitly valued. This was done by performing multiple 

runs and taking an appropriately-weighted average of the projected benefit 

payments and other values.

• Survivor Percentage

If a participant is receiving, or assumed to receive, a joint and 50% survivor or joint and 

75% survivor annuity, the actual surviving spouse payment expressed as a percentage of 

the participant’s benefit (the “effective survivor percentage”) may be greater than the 

stated survivor percentage in a post-suspension or DNME (“does not materially exceed”) 

run. This situation arises when a surviving spouse is affected by the PBGC guarantee 

limitation to a greater extent than the participant. Note that this situation does not arise 

in the context of a joint and 100% survivor benefit as the survivor’s payment is equal to 

the participant’s payment.

While we were able to value this effect explicitly for individuals in pay status, the valuation 

software would not allow us to do so for active and inactive vested participants. 

Therefore, we assumed the following average effective survivor percentages:

CPTF000231 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.10

Participant 

Group:

Effective Survivor Percentage Assumed for:

Suspension Projections Checklist #6 DNME Projections Checklist #11

Joint and 50% 

Survivor

Joint and 75% 

Survivor

Joint and 50% 

Survivor

Joint and 75% 

Survivor

Active 51.071% 75.232% 51.045% 75.226%

Inactive Vested 57.184% 78.179% 56.926% 78.068%

These assumptions were developed by calculating the effective survivor percentage for 

each individual at a commencement age of 59 (or current age if older) and averaging the 

results.

• Spouse Assumptions

In the case of non-pay status participants, married couples were assumed to be opposite 

sex with the male spouse 2 years older than the female.

• Loading for pop-up feature

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item 

#5, liabilities for non-retired participants’ benefit to be paid after retirement were 

increased 0.6% to account for the pop-up feature. Pop-up amounts for retirees 

receiving a joint and survivor form of benefit were explicitly valued.

o For all purposes other than the certification of critical and declining status in 

checklist item #5, liabilities for non-retired participants’ benefits to be paid after 

retirement were increased 0.9% to account for the pop-up feature. Pop-up 

amounts for retirees receiving a joint and survivor form of benefit were explicitly

valued.

• Benefit Commencement Age for Withdrawal Benefits

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item 

#5, current inactive vested participants are assumed to retire at age 59 if they have 

at least 10 years of service, or age 62 if less than 10 years of service. Future 

inactive vested participants are assumed to retire at age 59.

o For all purposes other than the certification of critical and declining status in 

checklist item #5, current inactive vested participants are assumed to retire 

according to the following decrement table:

CPTF000232 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.11

Age

Inactive Retirement Rate

<10 Years of 

Service

10+ Years 

of Service

55 - 0.12

56 - 0.06

57 - 0.06

58 - 0.06

59 - 0.06

60 - 0.06

61 - 0.10

62 0.03 0.25

63 0.03 0.15

64 0.15 0.20

65 0.35 0.40

66 0.10 0.35

67 0.10 0.20

68 0.05 0.20

69 0.05 0.15

70+ 1.00 1.00

Future inactive vested participants (i.e., withdrawal benefit for participants who 

are currently active) are assumed to commence at age 59.

• Benefit Commencement Age for Disability Benefits

Current and future disabled participants are assumed to convert to retirement benefits 

at age 62.

Assumptions Regarding Missing or Incomplete Data

• Assumption Regarding Terminated Vested Participants Beyond Normal Retirement Age

All known inactive vested participants were assumed to be alive. The fund office recently 

undertook a data clean-up project that resulted in the acquisition of hundreds of 

addresses for such people who were previously “missing.”

It was assumed that inactive vested participants who are past their IRC section 401(a)(9) 

required beginning date (“RBD”) on May 1, 2020 will be put into pay status retroactive to 

such date.

• Unrecorded Date of Birth Assumptions 

The age of participants with unrecorded dates of birth was estimated based on the 

average entry age of participants with recorded dates of birth and the same vesting 

status. To derive these averages, we looked at the entire active and inactive vested 

CPTF000233 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.12

population with reported dates of birth in the 2019 valuation data. The breakdown of 

average entry age of those participants is as follow:

Data Utilized for Entry Age Assumption

Vesting Status

Active and Inactive 

Vested Participants With 

DOB

Average 

Entry Age

Vested 10,062 27

Non-Vested 1,814 32

In the data utilized for the projections, there were 71 missing dates of birth. 69 were 

non-vested active participants who were assumed to have been 32 years old at their date 

of hire, and 2 were inactive vested participants who were assumed to have been 27 years 

old at their date of hire.

Unrecorded Dates of Birth

Status Count

Active - Non-Vested 69

Inactive Vested 2

New Entrant Profile

• Distribution of assumed future new entrants by age and sex are as follows:

Age Sex Distribution

20 M 20.48%

25 M 20.26%

30 M 21.45%

35 M 13.40%

40 M 9.06%

45 M 5.92%

50 M 4.55%

55 M 4.87%

• Future new entrants were assumed to work 1,269 hours per year, adjusted to align with 

each year’s assumed total hours worked by the Plan.

Contribution Rates

• A $14.85 per hour average contribution rate was assumed for projecting contributions to 

the plan.

CPTF000234 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.13

• Individual assumed future contribution rates were set equal to the individual participant’s 

average hourly rate received during the 2018-2019 plan year and then pro-rated so that 

the total group average was $14.85 per hour. It was assumed that 39% of this rate would 

be credited (i.e., benefit bearing).

Contribution Base Units

• The following future hours worked were assumed for purposes of projecting 

contributions to the plan:

Plan Year 

Ending 4/30: Hours

2021 6.9 million

2022 7.0 million

2023 7.0 million

2024+ 6.9 million

• Individual active participants were assumed to work 1,600 hours per year if they were 

vested and 600 hours per year otherwise. However, these numbers were pro-rated in 

order to conform the total hours worked by the entire population to the table above. 

Withdrawal Liability Payments

• For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5, no 

future withdrawal liability payments were assumed.

• For all other purposes, the following future withdrawal liability payments were assumed:

Plan Year(s) 

Ending 4/30:

Assumed EWL Payments From:

Prior 

Withdrawals

Future 

Withdrawals Total

2021 $ 1,333,196 $ - $ 1,333,196 

2022-2023 36,159 963,841 1,000,000 

2024 36,159 763,841 800,000 

2025-2033 36,159 613,841 650,000 

2034 12,056 637,944 650,000 

2035-2037 7,236 642,764 650,000 

2038 3,618 646,382 650,000 

2039+ - 650,000 650,000 

The assumed payment for the plan year ending April 30, 2021 includes a large assessment 

that is currently being litigated. It was assumed that the fund would receive a lump sum 

payment equal to the assessed liability with a one-third probability.

CPTF000235 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.14

Administrative Expenses

• For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5, noninvestment expenses were assumed to be $4,090,000 for the plan year ending 2020 and 

assumed to increase at the rate of 2.25% per year thereafter.

• For all other purposes, non-investment expenses were assumed to be $6,106,627 for the 

plan year ending April 30, 2021. Expenses for the plan year ending April 30, 2022 were 

assumed to be $4,688,160. Expenses for the plan year ending April 30, 2023 were 

assumed to be $4,288,676 and were assumed to increase at the rate of 2.4% per year 

thereafter.

Investment Liquidation Expenses

It was assumed that the Fund would have liquidation expenses of $5 million (reflecting early 

termination fees and realized losses) upon the initial transition from portfolio A to portfolio B. 

Note that this assumption does not apply to the certification of critical and declining status in 

checklist item #5.

Projection Methodology

• The DBVal valuation system was used to perform all actuarial calculations. Future asset 

values for deterministic and stochastic projections were calculated in Excel. Correlated 

samples for stochastic projections were generated using the R language.

• As discussed above, for purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in 

checklist item #5, the effect of the “take-up” rate of optional benefit form elections was 

approximated by using a hybrid form and amount of benefit.

• No data grouping techniques were used.

• The following changes to the cash flow projections were incorporated:

o Inactive vested participants were processed in separate runs in order to properly 

value the desired retirement decrements. No pre-retirement withdrawal or 

disability rates were assumed for these runs.

o For each plan design scenario, 5 active-only runs (one for each form of benefit), 5 

inactive vested-only runs (one for each form of benefit), and one pay status run 

were done. The projected benefit payments from these 11 runs were blended, 

along with projected benefits from assumed new entrants, to produce the final 

stream of benefit payments.

CPTF000236 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.15

o Benefit payments from the valuation system output are given as of the beginning 

of each plan year. These were multiplied by a one-half year interest adjustment 

factor to produce cash flows.

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item 

#5, active participant cash flows from the valuation system were adjusted for 

contribution rate and total hours. For all other purposes, these adjustments were 

handled within the system.

CPTF000237 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.16

Document 25.2

Supporting Documentation for Selection of Certain Assumptions

Investment Returns

• Dynamic Investment Targets

The deterministic and stochastic investment return assumptions (other than those used 

for the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5) are impacted by 

the new Statement of Investment Policy Guidelines recently adopted by the Trustees. The 

guidelines contain 5 target portfolios (A through E). While target portfolio A is initially in 

effect, the investment targets will dynamically change to the other portfolios if and when 

a defined cash flow metric hits certain “trigger points.” This metric is defined as the 

projected annual net cash flow (contributions less benefit payments and administrative 

expenses) as a percentage of the market value of fund assets at the beginning of the year. 

The following table summarizes the investment targets that would be in effect based on 

the value of the cash flow metric:

Annual Projected FY Cash Flows as a Percentage of 

Beginning of FY Assets 

“Trigger” > -7.5%

-7.5 to

-12.5%

-12.5% to

-17.5%

-17.5% to

-22.5% < -22.5% 

Target Portfolio A B C D E

US Equity

Large Cap 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 11.0% 8.0%

Small Cap 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0%

International Equity

Developed 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0%

Emerging Markets 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Small Cap

Global Equity

Global Equity 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 5.0% 0.0%

Fixed Income

US Core Fixed 15.0% 27.0% 39.0% 62.0% 85.0%

High Yield / Bank Loans 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%

EMD 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Balanced

Balanced Fund 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Alternatives

CPTF000238 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.17

Annual Projected FY Cash Flows as a Percentage of 

Beginning of FY Assets 

“Trigger” > -7.5%

-7.5 to

-12.5%

-12.5% to

-17.5%

-17.5% to

-22.5% < -22.5% 

Target Portfolio A B C D E

Real Estate 20.0% 16.0% 12.0% 6.0% 0.0%

Hedge Funds 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0%

PE / PD 16.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

• In order to make use of data from the Survey of Capital Market Assumptions: 2020 Edition, 

published by Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC (Survey), we had to translate the asset classes 

used in the Trustees’ investment policy guidelines to those used in the Survey. With input 

from the Fund’s Investment Consultant, the following investment targets were 

developed:

Annual Projected FY Cash Flows as a Percentage of 

Beginning of FY Assets 

“Trigger” > -7.5%

-7.5 to

-12.5%

-12.5% to

-17.5%

-17.5% to

-22.5% < -22.5% 

Target Portfolio A B C D E

US Large Cap 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 13.5% 8.0%

US Small/Mid Cap 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0%

International Equity 

Developed 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 6.0% 3.0%

International Equity 

Emerging 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 0.5% 0.0%

US Fixed – Core 15.0% 27.0% 39.0% 62.0% 85.0%

US Fixed – High Yield 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%

International Fixed -

Emerging 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Real Estate 20.0% 16.0% 12.0% 6.0% 0.0%

Hedge Funds 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0%

Private Equity 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Private Debt 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

The following asset classes used in the investment guidelines were not explicitly included 

in the Study and were therefore allocated among other included classes in the preceding 

table:

o Global Equity was assumed to be comprised of 50% US Large Cap, 40% Non-US 

Equity Developed, and 10% Non-US Equity Emerging

CPTF000239 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.18

o Private Equity and Debt (“PE / PD”) was assumed to be comprised of 50% Private 

Equity and 50% Private Debt

• Net Investment Return Assumptions Used for Deterministic Projections

o Short- and long-term net investment return assumptions for deterministic 

projections were developed for each possible target investment portfolio (A-E)

based on the median returns derived from 10,000 short (10-year) and long (20-

year) term portfolio simulations. The return distribution characteristics for each 

portfolio were derived from the expected net returns, standard deviations, and 

correlations from the Survey of Capital Market Assumptions: 2020 Edition

(Survey). 

o A summary of the median return from the simulations we conducted and the final 

selected return assumption for each target portfolio (both short- and long-term)

is shown below. Note that not every return from the following table is used in 

this application.

Portfolio Trigger Term Median Return Assumed ROR

A > -7.5% Short 6.47% 6.50%

A > -7.5% Long 7.35% 7.35%

B -7.5% to -12.5% Short 5.85% 5.85%

B -7.5% to -12.5% Long 6.76% 6.75%

C -12.5% to -17.5% Short 5.20% 5.20%

C -12.5% to -17.5% Long 6.15% 6.15%

D -17.5% to -22.5% Short 4.26% 4.25%

D -17.5% to -22.5% Long 5.22% 5.20%

E <-22.5% Short 3.36% 3.35%

E <-22.5% Long 4.35% 4.35%

o Since the capital market returns provided in response to the Survey included the 

effects of inflation and were net of investment-related expenses, we did not

employ an explicit inflation or investment expense assumption. 

o The assumed $5 million loss upon initial transition from Portfolio A to Portfolio B 

was based on advice provided by the Investment Consultant.

Assumed Dates for Portfolio Transitions

Our basic deterministic model recognizing the proposed suspension saw the initial transition 

from Portfolio A to Portfolio B occurring May 1, 2033. Under this scenario, projected benefit 

payments reach a maximum level during the 2036-2037 plan year and monotonically decrease 

after that. The rate of decrease in plan assets continually slows leading up to the low point of 

April 30, 2047, after which plan assets increase. The decrease in benefit payments combined 

CPTF000240 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.19

with the projected turnaround in assets causes the cash flow metric to improve during the 2040-

2041 plan year. The metric passes the -7.5% mark for the 2046-2047 plan year and the 

investments are assumed to return to Portfolio A.

These same portfolio transition dates (May 1, 2033 to Portfolio B and May 1, 2046 back to 

Portfolio A) were used for our basic stochastic modeling work recognizing the proposed 

suspension.

Demographic Experience

• Experience Studies

UAS does not typically perform formal experience studies for our clients. We typically 

assess the appropriateness of assumptions by looking at 5-year histories of demographic 

experience (expected versus actual exits by cause) and aggregate liability gain or loss 

relative to the size of accrued liability. If an assumption looks questionable, we perform 

an internal demographic experience study.

A 10-year history of demographic experience is provided below. Note that the expected 

exits and deaths shown in the following tables are based on the assumptions that were 

used for the actuarial valuation report prepared as of the beginning of each period, not

necessarily on the assumptions used to prepare this application.

PYE 

4/30:

Expected and Actual Exits From Active Status Due To:

Retirement Disablement (Net) Withdrawal

Expected Actual Expected Actual Expected Actual

2019 107.6 82 7.3 9 950.3 879

2018 96.9 97 6.8 6 792.8 403

2017 78.1 80 22.1 5 824.3 653

2016 73.5 96 21.6 8 702.9 506

2015 77.4 46 30.2 5 646.4 500

2014 78.8 53 30.5 12 368.4 669

2013 102.7 57 32.1 48 407.0 684

2012 104.0 117 31.5 47 373.8 272

2011 77.7 123 30.7 41 372.8 220

2010 141.0 173 37.9 61 488.6 1,466

CPTF000241 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.20

PYE 

4/30:

Expected and Actual Deaths by Status

Actives Inactive Vesteds Retirees

Expected Actual Expected Actual Expected Actual

2019 10.1 9 43.7 37 273.2 299

2018 8.9 12 40.1 30 269.1 298

2017 9.8 15 32.9 36 301.3 289

2016 9.3 13 30.6 26 298.3 304

2015 9.2 7 23.6 50 324.1 287

2014 9.5 6 22.2 25 318.1 280

2013 10.2 13 21.3 26 314.1 295

2012 10.6 8 21.6 22 264.2 295

2011 10.4 12 23.5 55 256.2 258

2010 12.9 16 20.4 53 250.6 292

• Select period withdrawal assumptions

Select period withdrawal assumptions for projections for all purposes other than the 

certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5 were based upon an 

updated experience study of withdrawals for the 5 year period ending April 30, 2019. The 

following table summarizes the experience evaluated. Note that rehires were netted out 

of withdrawals.

Year Exposure

Net 

Withdrawals Rate

1 3,738 1,865 49.89%

2 1,556 414 26.61%

3 1,026 116 11.31%

4 747 75 10.04%

• Pop-up load assumption

The pop-up load for all purposes other than the certification of critical and declining status 

in checklist item #5 was re-evaluated with this filing in conjunction the change in mortality 

assumption. The demographic data was based upon the May 1, 2019 actuarial valuation. 

The derivation appears below:

CPTF000242 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.21

Basic Input Items

Spouse/Retiree Assumed Age 

Difference 2

Assumed Retirement Age 60

Average Attained Age of Actives 42

Average J&S Percentage Elected 80.34%

Percentage of Retirees Electing J&S 56.10%

Actuarial Equivalent Interest 6.50%

Valuation Interest 7.50%

Is Pop-up Subsidized? Yes

Normal Form Certain Period 0

Mortality Assumptions Participant Spouse

Actuarial Equivalent Mortality UP84 UP84

Set Forward 0 0

Valuation Mortality PRI 2012 PRI 2012

Projection Scale MP 2019 MP 2019

Set Forward 0 0

% of mortality table 100% 100%

Conversion Factor Used by Plan - SL to 80.34% J&S - Ages 60/58

1. SL PV factor - participant 10.1919 

2. SL PV factor - spouse 10.6278 

3. JL PV factor - first to die 8.5841 

4. Final conversion factor 0.8613 =(1)/[(1)*100% + [(2)-(3)]*80.34%]

Load Calculation - ACTIVES/DEFERRED VESTEDS

1. SL PV factor - participant 10.8557 

2. SL PV factor - spouse 11.0884 

3. JL PV factor - first to die 9.6297 

4. PV factor - with pop-up 12.2251 =(3)*100% + [(1)-(3)]/0.8613 + [(2)-(3)]*80.34%

5. PV factor - no pop-up 12.0276 =(1)*100% + [(2)-(3)]*80.34%

6. Final load 0.9% =[(4)/(5) - 1]*56.10%

• Liability Gain/Loss Analysis

Liability gains/losses as reported in each actuarial valuation report for the last 10 years, 

both as a dollar amount and as a percentage of accrued liability, are shown below:

CPTF000243 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.22

• Percentage of Plan Population That Is Married

For the 5 plan years ending April 30, 2019, 1,147 people commenced retirement benefits. 

Of these, 770, or 67.1%, were married and, on average, the male spouse was 2.07 years 

older than the female spouse. There were no same sex married couples reported.

• Distribution of Optional Form Elections

The distribution of optional form elections at retirement for the plan years ending April 

30, 2015-2019 is shown below:

Benefit Form

Married 

Participants 

Electing

Single 

Participants 

Electing

Life annuity 17.8% 84.1%

Life-ten year certain 3.0% 13.8%

Joint & 50% survivor 23.8% 0.5%2

Joint & 75% survivor 12.5% 1.1%2

Joint & 100% survivor 43.0% 0.5%2

• Rates of Retirement by Age

Retirement experience for actives during the 5 plan years ending April 30, 2019 is 

summarized below:

2 The plan does not allow single participants to elect a joint and survivor form of benefit. The apparent instances of 

this in the table above are due to divorced retirees who elect a joint and survivor annuity pursuant to the terms of 

a qualified domestic relations order (QDRO). For the purpose of selecting the “take up percentage” assumption, 

these percentages were assumed to be zero.

PYE 

4/30:

Liability (Gain)/Loss

As $ Amount

As % of 

Liability

2019 $ 11,072,484 0.49%

2018 12,008,517 0.54%

2017 17,488,095 0.81%

2016 14,607,648 0.69%

2015 (2,276,720) -0.11%

2014 16,203,453 0.78%

2013 11,546,638 0.55%

2012 16,834,372 0.81%

2011 41,566,901 2.07%

2010 (23,845,603) -1.17%

CPTF000244 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.23

Age

Without Index 80 or 85 With Index 80 or 85

Exposure Retirements Rate Exposure Retirements Rate

55 495 49 9.9% 164 46 28.0%

56 387 26 6.7% 72 19 26.4%

57 314 18 5.7% 44 11 25.0%

58 274 27 9.9% 41 12 29.3%

59 213 20 9.4% 39 14 35.9%

60 157 13 8.3% 32 8 25.0%

61 114 27 23.7% 27 7 25.9%

62 110 36 32.7% 12 5 41.7%

63 56 8 14.3% 6 1 16.7%

64 35 6 17.1% 7 1 14.3%

65 17 3 17.6% 5 2 40.0%

66 21 4 19.0% 6 1 16.7%

67 7 2 28.6% 4 2 50%

68 5 - 0.0% 3 2 66.7%

69 3 - 0.0% - - -

70 4 - 0.0% - - -

>70 3 - 0.0% - - -

Retirement experience for inactive vested participants during the 5 plan years ending 

April 30, 2019 is summarized below:

CPTF000245 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.24

Age

10+ Years of Service 3-9 Years of Service

Exposure Retirements Rate Exposure Retirements Rate

55 441 53 12.0% - - - 

56 377 25 6.6% - - - 

57 347 16 4.6% - - - 

58 294 16 5.4% - - - 

59 287 16 5.6% - - - 

60 249 16 6.4% - - - 

61 221 23 10.4% - - - 

62 192 43 22.4% 526 2 0.4%

63 141 19 13.5% 472 0 0.0%

64 112 23 20.5% 410 66 16.1%

65 93 38 40.9% 282 109 38.7%

66 52 19 36.5% 153 15 9.8%

67 29 5 17.2% 116 12 10.3%

68 22 4 18.2% 84 5 6.0%

69 20 3 15.0% 61 3 4.9%

70 12 4 33.3% 34 7 20.6%

>70 14 2 14.3% 56 6 10.7%

Mortality Assumptions

• Experience Study Underlying Mortality Rates

We selected the PRI-2012 mortality tables as the mortality basis for this application. 

These tables can be found in the PRI-2012 Mortality Tables Report issued by the Society 

of Actuaries (https://www.soa.org/resources/experience-studies/2019/pri-2012-privatemortality-tables/).

We feel this family of tables is the most appropriate for the purpose of the measurements 

contained herein because (1) they are based on a very large dataset (16.1 million life 

years), (2) they are current (all data came from calendar years 2010-2014), and (3) the 

dataset upon which they are based includes a substantial amount of multiemployer data 

(approximately 70% of the blue collar data came from multiemployer plans).

The vast majority of participants in the plan are employed in the construction industry as 

a carpenter or in a related trade (e.g., millwright). As such, they would classified as blue 

collar workers. Therefore, we used the blue collar tables. 

Finally, as is typically appropriate for pension plans, we used the benefit weighted tables 

in preparing this application. 

CPTF000246 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.25

Note that the PRI-2012 mortality study includes separate tables for annuitants and 

contingent survivors. DBVal provides for gender-distinct mortality tables, but does not

allow a separate table to be used for contingent survivors. Since the majority of pay status 

males are primary annuitants, and since the majority of females are contingent 

annuitants, the healthy annuitant table was used for all pay status males and the 

contingent survivor table was used for all pay status females.

• Process Used to Construct Tables

As we have selected the blue collar tables of the PRI-2012 Mortality Tables Report issued 

by the Society of Actuaries as the basis for the mortality assumptions, we refer the reader 

to the text of this study for a detailed description of how the tables were constructed (see 

link above). 

• Mortality Adjustments

We performed a credibility-weighted mortality adjustment study based on plan deaths of 

participants over the age of 50 during the most recent 5 plan years for which data was 

available (plan years ending April 30, 2015-2019) using the methodology outlined in 

Regulation 1.430(h)(3)-2. Our study used the formulas appropriate for a benefit-weighted 

mortality table. 

The results of our study were as follows:

Males Females

Adjustment if 100% Credible 99.9% 97.7%

Credibility Factor 0.749 0.445

Credibility-weighted Adjustment 99.9% 99.0%

After considering these results, we decided to use the unadjusted tables from the study

• Mortality Improvement

We used the Society of Actuaries’ MP-2019 improvement scalesto project mortality rates 

generationally, which we believe to be appropriate for the purpose.

New Entrant Profile

• The distribution of ages of new entrants over the past 5 years appears below:

CPTF000247 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.26

Age 

Range

Percentage of New Entrants for PYE 4/30:

2019 2018 2017 2016 2015

≤20 20.22% 20.05% 20.77% 22.19% 19.16%

23-27 20.49% 19.92% 20.97% 19.19% 21.02%

28-32 22.65% 18.63% 21.36% 20.05% 25.93%

33-37 12.82% 15.30% 12.07% 14.05% 11.89%

38-42 8.39% 9.79% 9.69% 9.60% 7.47%

43-47 4.96% 6.59% 6.13% 6.08% 5.60%

48-52 5.69% 4.35% 4.95% 3.94% 3.93%

53+ 4.78% 5.37% 4.06% 4.88% 5.01%

New entrants studied included inactive participants returning to the workforce.

Contribution Base Units and Employer Withdrawals

• Employers That Contributed Over 5%

Information on the employers that made more than 5% of total plan year contributions 

during the last 10 plan years for which data is available (plan years ending April 30, 2010-

2019) appears below. Note that, during 5 of the last 10 plan years, no single employer 

accounted for more than 5% of the total contributions. Therefore, there is no entry for 

these plan years (plan years ending April 30, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2010).

PYE 

4/30:

Employer 

Name

Percent 

of Total Hours

Average 

Contribution 

Rate

Total 

Contribution

2015 Employer A 8.10% 520,846 $ 16.30 $ 8,488,041

2014 Employer B 6.17% 315,567 19.10 6,028,496

2014 Employer A 5.56% 330,062 16.44 5,427,692

2014 Employer C 5.43% 313,658 16.90 5,301,144

2013 Employer B 7.94% 564,592 12.60 7,112,439

2013 Employer C 6.51% 319,310 18.26 5,830,619

2012 Employer B 9.14% 657,240 11.99 7,882,031

2012 Employer C 5.78% 388,064 12.84 4,983,881

2011 Employer C 7.86% 649,819 8.20 5,328,570

2011 Employer B 6.14% 342,167 12.18 4,167,883

CPTF000248 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.27

The largest percentage contributed by a single employer in those years where no 

employer accounted for 5% or more of the total contribution base is shown in the 

following table.

PYE 

4/30:

Largest Percentage 

Contributed by a 

Single Employer

2019 3.76%

2018 3.66%

2017 4.19%

2016 4.20%

2010 4.89%

• Historical Trends – Contribution Base Units (Hours)

As recently as the early 2000’s, the plan had annual contribution hours in excess of 14 

million. However, by 2010, hours had hit a low point of 5.8 million. The decline was 

largely driven by a struggling Detroit economy. Please see table of historic of work hours 

below:

PYE 

4/30:

Work 

Hours

PYE 

4/30:

Work 

Hours

2020 7,212,686 2010 5,796,364

2019 7,795,753 2009 8,454,305

2018 8,332,526 2008 10,500,468

2017 7,478,853 2007 10,020,514

2016 7,446,260 2006 11,118,510

2015 6,965,968 2005 11,830,720

2014 6,386,096 2004 12,130,239

2013 6,689,107 2003 13,131,324

2012 7,131,329 2002 14,156,290

2011 6,572,509 2001 14,551,472

The auto industry touches the lives of most of Detroit’s residents in one way or another. 

Consequently, when the auto industry goes through a tough time, so does Detroit. By the 

late 2000’s, flagging car sales had forced both Chrysler and GM to file for bankruptcy. The 

decline of these great American companies, on top of the “great recession” being felt 

across the country, had a chilling effect on union construction projects, resulting in the 

sharp decline in hours.

Work hours rebounded to some extent since 2010, exceeding 8 million in 2018 (the only 

year in the past decade where this occurred). However, changes in state labor laws, a 

CPTF000249 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.28

decline in union market share, a dramatically scaled back Auto Show, other projectspecific issues and, of course the COVID-19 pandemic, have and will continue to force a 

short-term decline in hours. 

The Trustees expect hours for the plan year ended April 30, 2021 to be further depressed 

by the pandemic to 6.9 million. They predict a slight increase for 2022 and 2023 based 

on the theory that some projects put on hold because of the pandemic will restart 

following the general availability of a vaccine, but ultimately think hours will average 

around 6.9 million. We agree with this assessment and have set our future work hours 

assumption accordingly.

• Historical Trends – Contribution Rates

Beginning in 2006, the bargaining parties began making consistent contribution rate 

increases in an attempt to improve the plan’s funding situation. These increases were 

typically non-credited/non-benefit bearing. During the period 2006-2014, the average 

hourly contribution rate increased from about $4 to over $15, and the percentage

credited dropped from 100% to about 39%. Please see Document 26.1.

On August 1, 2013, the Trustees voted to adopt the “all reasonable measures” option 

under the Pension Protection Act. Since that time there have been no negotiated 

increases (though the average does fluctuate from year to year based on the changing 

distribution of work among the various collective bargaining agreements). 

The Trustees and bargaining parties feel that the high contribution rate coupled with the 

low effective accrual rate make it difficult to attract and retain the best workers. 

Furthermore, the high contribution rates make it difficult for contractors to compete in 

the bidding process. Therefore, the sponsors are of the opinion that future contribution 

rate increases would be detrimental to the plan and that negotiated increases are highly 

unlikely in the foreseeable future. Given this, we feel that a flat contribution rate 

assumption (i.e. assuming no future increases) is reasonable and appropriate.

We based our future average hourly contribution rate assumption on the weighted 

average contribution rate received over the 7 plan years during which the “all reasonable 

measures” option was in effect ( since there have been no negotiated contribution rate 

increases in that time). Please see the following development:

CPTF000250 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.29

PYE

4/30: Hours

Audited 

Contributions

EWL 

Payments

Contributions

Excluding EWL 

Payments

Average 

Contribution 

Rate

2014 6,386,096 $ 97,871,522 $ - $ 97,871,522 $ 15.33

2015 6,965,968 106,709,394 1,180,886 105,528,508 15.15

2016 7,446,260 111,258,164 - 111,258,164 14.94

2017 7,478,853 106,706,279 - 106,706,279 14.27

2018 8,332,526 123,147,221 7,236 123,139,985 14.78

2019 7,795,753 116,595,346 3,100,521 113,494,825 14.56

2020 7,212,686 109,088,249 52,500 109,035,749 15.12

TOTAL 51,618,142 $ 771,376,175 $ 4,341,143 $ 767,035,032 n/a

Dividing the 7-year total contributions excluding EWL payments by the 7-year total hours, 

yields a weighted average contribution rate of $14.86 per hour. We selected our assumed 

future contribution rate of $14.85 per hour by rounding this weighted average to the 

nearest $0.05.

The sources of information for the preceding table are as follows:

o Hours History based on information in the most recent historical data file provided 

by the administrator.

o Contributions based on audited contributions, except for the PYB 2019 is based 

on unaudited financial statements, as the April 30, 2020 financial audit is not yet 

completed.

o EWL Payments provided by Fund Counsel.

o Average contribution rate calculated from other columns.

• Experience with Withdrawal Liability Collections

The plan’s 10-year experience with withdrawal liability collections has been as follows:

CPTF000251 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.30

PYE 4/30:

Withdrawal 

Liability 

Collected

2011 $ 55,520 

2012 1,355,000 

2013 540,000 

2014 - 

2015 1,180,886 

2016 - 

2017 - 

2018 7,236 

2019 3,061,736 

2020 52,500

Because of the small number of withdrawals that are actually assessable due to the 

construction industry exemption, there is quite a bit of volatility in the collection 

numbers.

Two employers are currently making quarterly payments, and a case against a third 

employer is being litigated. Based on the known payment schedules and assuming a onethird probability that the case in litigation will result in payment of the allocated liability, 

we estimated collections for the current plan year at $1,333,196.

We felt that, as hours are projected to decline, there would be a greater chance of 

withdrawal liability assessments. Therefore, we left assumed collections at the $1 million 

level for 2021 through 2023. After that we assumed $800,000 for 2024 as a transition 

down the 10-year average of about $650,000, which we assumed for all plan years 

thereafter. 

Our 2019 withdrawal liability report shows 13 contractors who paid some withdrawal 

liability. Of those, 5 were paid in full and 8 were settled or written off. The “discount” on 

the settlements fell in the range of 15%-40%. The write-offs were negotiated with due 

diligence based on the facts and circumstances of each case and resulted in settlement 

amounts that were deemed actually collectible, although less than the assessed amounts.

Take-up Rate With Respect to Selection of Benefit/Contribution Schedules

The initial rehabilitation plan adopted in 2008 had only 2 schedules: the “preferred” and the 

“default.” Following the adoption of this plan, every bargaining unit adopted the preferred 

schedule. 

In the 2012 update to the rehabilitation plan, the preferred schedule called for contribution rate 

increases every year through 2016 on the Commercial, Display, Floorlayer, Millwright, and 

CPTF000252 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.31

Roadbuilder contracts. However, when the “all reasonable measures” plan was adopted the 

following year, rates were essentially frozen at the 2013 level and have not been increased since.

Projection Methodology

• Approximation Techniques

As previously discussed, for purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in 

checklist item #5 the effect of the “take-up” rate of optional benefit form elections was 

approximated by using a hybrid form and amount of benefit.

• Cash Flow Projections

o Inactive vested participants were processed in separate runs in order to properly 

value the desired retirement decrements. This was done because our valuation 

system does not fully support inactive decrements.

o For each plan design scenario, 5 active-only runs (one for each form of benefit), 5 

inactive vested-only runs (one for each form of benefit), and one pay status run 

were done. The projected benefit payments from these 11 runs were blended, 

along with projected benefits from assumed new entrants, to produce the final 

stream of benefit payments. This was done because our valuation system does 

not allow the user to assume multiple forms of benefit payment in a single run. 

o Benefit payments from the valuation system output are given as of the beginning 

of each plan year. These were multiplied by a one-half year interest adjustment 

factor to produce cash flows. We think it is more intuitive to work with cash flows 

rather than interest-adjusted cash flows. Additionally, all benefit payments 

produced by the valuation system are discounted at the valuation interest rate, 

whereas, when projecting assets, various rates of interest are applied.

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item 

#5, active participant cash flows from the valuation system were adjusted for 

contribution rate and total hours. 

CPTF000253 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.32

Document 25.3

Additional Disclosures Relating to the Use of Different Assumptions

• Deterministic Projections

Explanation of differences between assumptions used under sections 4.02(1) and 3.01 of 

Revenue Procedure 2017-43.

o The long-term (10+ years) interest rate used for the Critical and Declining 

certification under section 3.01 is a flat 7.5%, whereas, the deterministic 

projections under section 4.02(1) are based on 7.35% with a 13-year period 

(5/1/2033-4/30/2046) where 6.75% is assumed. The 7.35% long-term rate used 

in this application was selected based on the 2020 edition of Horizon’s Survey of 

Capital Market Assumptions, while the 7.5% used in the certification matched the 

2019 actuarial valuation report, which constituted the basis of such certification.

The 13-year period of lower (6.75%) returns reflects assumed dynamic portfolio 

target changes pursuant to the new investment policy guidelines, which were not 

in effect when the certification under section 3.01 was prepared. 

Similarly, the assumed $5 million investment loss upon initial transition from 

portfolio A to portfolio B was not applicable when the certification was prepared. 

o The “take-up” rate for benefit form election was approximated with a hybrid form 

of benefit under section 3.01, whereas, the assumption is explicitly valued under 

section 4.02(1). When the certification of critical and declining status was 

completed, it was based on the 2019 actuarial valuation report, which used the 

hybrid form approach. Explicit valuation of the “take-up” rate for benefit form 

election would not have changed the critical and declining status.

o For purposes of section 3.01, current inactive vested participants are assumed to 

retire at age 59 if they have at least 10 years of service, or age 62 if less than 10 

years of service. Under the section 4.02(1) calculations, retirement rates are used 

to value inactive vested participants. The critical and declining certification did 

not explicitly value multiple retirement ages for inactives. This additional coding 

would not have changed the critical and declining status.

o For the projections under section 3.01, no future withdrawal liability payments 

were assumed. At the time the critical and declining certification was prepared, 

we did not think it would be material to the results of the certification.

CPTF000254 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.33

o For the projections under section 3.01, we did not take into account any increased 

expenses due to the MPRA filing or future inflation in expenses. We followed our 

standard valuation practice of assuming flat expenses going forward when 

completing the certification. When completing this application, we decided it 

would be more accurate to account for increased expenses due to the MPRA filing 

as well as include a future inflation adjustment in our expense assumption.

• Stochastic Projections

Other than differences inherent in deterministic versus stochastic modeling, we do not 

believe there are any material discrepancies between the assumptions used for the 

deterministic projection under section 4.02(1) of Revenue Procedure 2017-43, and the 

stochastic projections under section 4.02(2).

• Present Value Discount Rate

For purposes of calculating the present values and funding ratios contained in this 

application (specifically in checklist items #5, 12, and 28), a 7.5% discount rate was used. 

This is the discount rate used in preparing the May 1, 2019 Actuarial Valuation Report. 

Solvency projections included herein utilize different interest rate assumptions as 

described above.

• Reconciliation of Datasets

The certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5 was based on the May 

1, 2019 Actuarial Valuation Report. However, an updated May 1, 2019 dataset was 

utilized for all other projections contained in this application. A reconciliation of 

participant count differences in the two datasets appears below.

Participant Counts

Active

Inactive 

Vested

Receiving 

Benefits

5/1/2019 Valuation Dataset 5,694 6,444 7,466

Updated 5/1/2019 Dataset for Application 5,682 6,413 7,357

Change (12) (31) (109)

CPTF000255 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #25 – 6.03 Actuarial Assumptions used for Projections

25.34

Reconciliation of Change in Active Count

Effect on 

Participant 

Count

• Confirmed not a participant of the fund -1

• Confirmed deceased before valuation date with no eligible beneficiary -1

• Awarded disability retroactive before valuation date -1

• Duplicate records found -9

Net Change -12

Reconciliation of Change in Inactive Vested Count

Effect on 

Participant 

Count

• Confirmed deceased before valuation date with no eligible beneficiary -6

• Duplicate records found -1

• Deferred beneficiaries due a benefit that is not expected to be payable 

during the extended period (lump sum death benefit >$5,000) -24

• Deferred beneficiary who entered pay status before valuation date -1

• Deferred beneficiary determined to have no benefit payable -1

• Alternate payees now valued as deferred beneficiaries (in addition to 

the current spouse records already valued) 2

Net Change -31

Reconciliation of Change in Pay Status Count

Effect on 

Participant 

Count

• Confirmed deceased before valuation date with no eligible beneficiary -1

• Alternate Payees receiving shared interest payment now combined 

with participant's record -139

• Alternate Payees in pay status now valued separately; for valuation 

purposes, the liability attributable to these people was assumed to be 

included in the participant’s liability because the participant is still active 28

• Beneficiaries found to have commenced benefits prior to valuation date 2

• Awarded disability retroactive before valuation date 1

Net Change -109

CPTF000256 CPTF - 
1 

Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

20-year Forecast

August 26, 2019

Prepared by 

Malcolm S. Cohen, PhD

President, Employment Research Corporation

Prepared for

Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters, Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit & Vicinity

c/o Benesys, Inc.

Attn: Joan Janks, Plan Manager

700 Tower Drive, Ste. 300

Troy, MI 48098

CPTF000257 CPTF-DV000208 CPTF - 
2 

Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity – 20-year Forecast

I was asked to make a 20-year projection of hours worked for unionized carpenters in the state of 

Michigan. This report summarizes my findings.

Qualifications– Malcolm S. Cohen, PhD

I am the president of Employment Research Corporation, a firm located in Ann Arbor, Michigan, that 

specializes in employment and wage and hour research. I obtained my Ph.D. in Economics from MIT, 

with specializations in Econometrics and Labor Economics. After graduating from MIT, I worked for the 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, D.C. I have taught at the University of Maryland, the 

University of Michigan, and the University of Minnesota. The classes I have taught include Statistics, 

Economics, Labor Market Information, Human Resource Management, Human Resource Information 

Systems, and Econometrics. I served as Director of the Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations at the 

University of Michigan from 1980 to 1993. At the University of Michigan, I also served varied terms as 

the Chairman of the Program for Human Resource Development, a graduate certificate program, 

between 1975 and 1978. I have conducted extensive research on labor market issues, new hires, labor 

shortages and labor market information. I have written over 50 articles and books on related topics. I 

have testified or been a consultant in over 1,000 audits or cases and have testified over 300 times. I 

have also served as an expert to the EEOC and U.S. Department of Labor.

Under contract to the Wage and Hour Division of the U.S. Department of Labor, I prepared detailed 

estimates of the number and characteristics of the exempt and non-exempt employees for 

congressionally mandated minimum wage studies published in June 1998 and January 2001. 

Additionally, under contract to the Wage and Hour Division, I prepared a report describing major 

changes in the U.S. economy and estimating how those changes would impact the viability of 29 CFR § 

541 regulatory requirements (namely, The “New Economy" and Its Impact on Executive, Administrative 

and Professional Exemptions to the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA)). The DOL submitted each of these 

reports to the U.S. Congress for its information and use in considering proposed regulations and 

legislation. My Curriculum Vitae is attached as Appendix A.

Related Publications

While I was at the Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations at the University of Michigan from 1972-

1993, I authored or coauthored a number of related publications, including: 

"The Economic Outlook for the Metropolitan Areas of Michigan" with George A. Fulton and 

Donald R. Grimes. The Economic Outlook for 1987, proceedings of the Thirty-fourth Annual 

Conference on the Economic Outlook. Ann Arbor: Research Seminar in Quantitative 

Economics, University of Michigan

Occupational Employment Forecasts for the Flint SMSA, with Arthur R. Schwartz and Donald R. Grimes. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts, Michigan, East and Central 

Major Areas, with Harold T. Shapiro, Arthur R. Schwartz, and Alan Kett. 

CPTF000258 CPTF-DV000209 CPTF - 
3 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts, Southeast Michigan, with 

Harold T. Shapiro, George A. Fulton, and Arthur R. Schwartz. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts, Michigan, Western Major 

Areas, with Harold T. Shapiro, Arthur R. Schwartz, and Alan Kett. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts, State of Michigan, with 

Harold T. Shapiro and George A. Fulton. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts: Multi-County Balance of 

State Areas, with Harold T. Shapiro, Arthur R. Schwartz, Alan Kett, and Philip Mirowski.

Wage and Salary Forecast, Michigan, with Arthur R. Schwartz. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts for the Flint SMSA. 

An Econometric Model of a Local Urban Labor Market: The Flint SMSA. 

An Econometric Model of a Local Urban Labor Market: The Denver, Colorado SMSA. 

Data and documents reviewed

In preparing this report I have reviewed the following data and publications:

1. Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters Pension Trust Fund Detroit and Vicinity Summary Plan 

Description, January 1, 2017.

2. First-seventh and thirteenth Amendments to the Pension Plan of the Carpenters’ Pension Trust 

Fund – Detroit and Vicinity (As Restated on October 7, 2014). 

3. Carpenters Pension Trust Fund All Reasonable Measures Plan 2013.

4. 10-Year Active Membership Statistics, UBC Midwestern District 2009-2019. 

5. Annual Carpenters Pension Trust Fund Actuarial Valuation Reports May 1, 2011 – May 1, 2018.

6. Wage rates for various union locals for time periods from 2016 to 2018 for different areas in 

Michigan. 

7. Various collective bargaining agreements for the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters. 

8. Financial Statements for the Carpenters’ Pension Trust Fund – 2012-2017.

9. Form 990 and Form 5500 for tax years ending 4/30/2013-4/30/2017. 

10. An email from Paul Newcomer dated April 26, 2019 providing background for the report.

11. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment 

Survey on the Employment of Carpenters, 2003-2018.

12. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 5/22/2019. 

13. University of Michigan RSQE press release Job Growth Michigan Forecast 2017-2020. 

14. National employment projections, U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, 

Employment Projections, 2016-2026, and descriptions of their methodology. 

15. Michigan Occupational Employment Projections, Michigan Bureau of Labor Market Information 

and Strategic Initiatives, 2016-2026.

CPTF000259 CPTF-DV000210 CPTF - 
4 

16. Labor Force Statistics Derived from the CPS, September 1982, BLS Bulletin 2096. 

17. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, January 1983. 

18. Current Population Survey, Employed Persons by detailed Occupation, 1983-2002. 

19. Current Population Survey, Employed Persons by detailed Occupation and Sex, annual averages, 

2000-2010. 

20. Current Population Survey, Employed Persons by detailed Occupation and Sex, annual averages, 

2011-2018. 

21. Trends in carpenter employment (number of jobs reported by establishment) in Detroit, 

Michigan and the United States, 1997 -2018. 

22. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-increases-us-recession-odds-75-percent193520909.html. 

23. National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.

24. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/22/manufacturing-sector-contracts-for-the-first-time-innearly-a-decade-according-to-ihs-markit.html

Analysis

I was asked to make a projection of demand for unionized construction-industry carpenters in Michigan. 

I was provided with historical data on hours worked by members of the Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – 

Detroit and Vicinity (“the Fund”). Employer contributions to the Fund are related to each employee’s 

hourly rate. There are different kinds of projections. Economists look at past trends and current leading 

indicators and make projections based on these trends. These forecasts are intended to assist analysts in 

understanding broad trends and risks and are not intended to determine actual contribution rates that 

should be made to keep a pension plan solvent. These determinations are typically made by actuaries 

that have more experience with fund flows and understand risks to the solvency of the fund. They also 

have a better understanding of the specifics of the fund contributors as well as specific risks.

CPTF000260 CPTF-DV000211 CPTF - 
5 

The Fund’s Annual Actuarial Valuation reports hours worked each year. Figure 1 shows hours worked for 

the Fund between 2003 and 2018.1

 

Figure 1

Source: Annual Carpenters Pension Trust Fund Actuarial Valuation Reports May 1, 2011 – May 1, 2018

From 2003 to 2010, hours worked by Carpenters in the Fund declined. From 2010 to 2018, hours worked 

increased from just under 6 million hours per year to nearly 8 million hours per year, or 4.2% per year. 

This high rate of growth was related to the recovery from the 2008-2010 recession and is unlikely to 

continue. 

In order to project expected hours worked for future years, I compared the data on hours with measures 

related to industry activity such as Carpenters’ employment in the United States, Michigan and the 

Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. Figure 2 shows Carpenter employment in Michigan and in the 

Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area from 2003 to 2018.2

 

Figure 2 

1 I was provided with actuarial valuations for 2011-2018. The 2012 valuation included a chart I used to estimate 

hours worked back to 2003.

2 Occupational Employment Statistics Data for Michigan and the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical area for 

Carpenters (47-2031), 2003-2018, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Hours

Hours Worked in the Carpenters' Pension Trust Fund, 2003-2018

Hours Worked (in thousands)

CPTF000261 CPTF-DV000212 CPTF - 
6 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Survey, 2003-2018.

Both Michigan employment and the Detroit Metropolitan Area employment exhibit a similar historical 

pattern as hours worked by members of the Carpenters Pension Trust Fund. Figure 3 shows both 

Carpenter employment in Michigan and hours worked in the Carpenters Pension Trust Fund.

Figure 3 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Survey, 2003-2018 and Carpenters’ Pension Trust Fund Actuarial Valuation 

documents, 2011-2018. 

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Occupational Employment Survey Carpenter Employment in Michigan and the 

Detroit Metorpolitan Statistical Area, 2003-2018

MI Employment (in thousands) Detroit MSA Employment (in thousands)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Hours Worked

Employment

OES Carpenter Employment in Michigan and Hours Worked in the Carpenters' 

Pension Trust Fund, 2003-2018

MI Employment (in thousands) Hours Worked (in thousands)

CPTF000262 CPTF-DV000213 CPTF - 
7 

Although they are on different scales, the trend in Carpenter employment in Michigan has been 

reflected in the hours worked by members of the fund over the past 15 years. 

The demand for Carpenters can fluctuate based on economic conditions. During an economic recession, 

it is not unusual to see a decrease in demand for many types of labor. The National Bureau of Economic 

Research (NBER) defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the 

economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, 

industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”3 Figure 4 shows the real Gross Domestic Product 

(GDP) in billions from 1978 to 2018, with NBER-defined recessions shown in the shaded areas. 

Figure 4 

Source: Real GDP in billions of chained 2012 dollars, Quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate and recession data from Federal Reserve 

Economic Data (https://fred.stlouisfed.org).

Although there are quantitative methods for predicting the likelihood of future recessions, there is not a 

reliable way to predict precisely when a recession will begin or end, or how many will occur in a 20-year 

period. However, we can make projections which show likely future economic activity, adjusting for the 

possible impact of recessionary periods which can lead to declines in Carpenter employment. Since the 

NBER began measuring recessions in 1857 there has not been a 10-year period without a recession 

except the current cycle, June 2009 to present. Therefore, it seems probable that there will be at least 

one recession, and probably two, in the next 20 years. 

3 NBER website, http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

19781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Real GDP in billions, 1978 to 2018, with recessions indicated

Recession Real GDP

CPTF000263 CPTF-DV000214 CPTF - 
8 

Figure 5 shows the employment of Carpenters in the U.S. over the last 40 years. The shaded areas 

indicate, from peak to trough, declines in Carpenter employment in the United States. Historical data is 

based on the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the United States Bureau of the Census.4

 

Figure 5 

Source: United States Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In the last 40 years there have been three major declines in Carpenter employment, occurring from 

1979-1982, 1988-1992, and 2006-2010. From 2006 to 2010, Carpenter employment dropped by 33%. 

Over the same time period, hours worked by carpenters in Michigan declined by 47%, from 11,200,000 

to 5,900,000. 

To estimate the impact of future declines, I have included a projection that assumes there will be two 

declines over the next 20 years that and that each will average 30%. I assume that employment will 

decline 15% during the first year, and bottom at 30% in the second year, then return to the 4.2% growth 

rate experienced by Carpenter hours from 2010 to 2018. 

In this projection, shown in Figure 6, Carpenter hours will reach 7.7 million by 2038, but there is a 30% 

reduction in hours occurring over two years in 2021 and 2032. 

4 The count of Carpenters in the CPS differs from OES data because it includes persons self-reporting their 

occupation as a carpenter to the census bureau, where OES data is based on reporting by employers.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

19781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

U.S. Employment of Carpenters, 1978-2018, with declines indicated

decline Number Employed (in Thousands)

CPTF000264 CPTF-DV000215 CPTF - 
9 

Figure 6 

Table 1 provides the projection in manhours by year from 2019 to 2038. 

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037

Hours Worked (in thousands)

Carpenter Hours Worked in Michigan, with projection

Hours Worked (in thousands) ERC projection

CPTF000265 CPTF-DV000216 CPTF - 
10

Table 1: Projected Hours for Carpenters’ Pension Fund – Detroit and Vicinity 

Year Projected 

Hours Worked

2019 8,528,350 

2020 8,886,541 

2021 7,553,560 

2022 6,220,579 

2023 6,481,843 

2024 6,754,080 

2025 7,037,752 

2026 7,333,337 

2027 7,641,337 

2028 7,962,274 

2029 8,296,689 

2030 8,645,150 

2031 7,348,377 

2032 6,051,605 

2033 6,305,772 

2034 6,570,615 

2035 6,846,581 

2036 7,134,137 

2037 7,433,771 

2038 7,745,989 

Conclusion

Based on my analysis of the various economic forecasts and projections I reviewed, it is my opinion that 

there is a strong possibility of one or more recessions occurring in the 20-year period of the projection, 

resulting in a decline in Michigan Carpenter hours from 2019 to 2038. 

CPTF000266 CPTF-DV000217 CPTF - 
9/29/2020 Carpenters : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm 1/5

Search Handbook Go

OOH HOME | OCCUPATION FINDER | OOH FAQ | OOH GLOSSARY | A-Z INDEX | OOH SITE MAP

What They Do ->

About this section

Occupational Outlook Handbook > Construction and Extraction >

Carpenters PRINTER-FRIENDLY 

Summary

Summary

What They Do

What Carpenters Do

Carpenters construct, repair, and install building frameworks and structures made from wood and other materials.

Duties

Carpenters typically do the following:

Follow blueprints and building plans to meet the needs of clients

Install structures and fixtures, such as windows and molding

Measure, cut, and shape wood, plastic, and other materials

Construct and install building frameworks, including walls, floors, and doorframes

Inspect and replace damaged framework or other structures and fixtures

Instruct and direct laborers and other construction helpers

Carpenters have many different tasks. Some carpenters insulate office buildings; others install drywall or kitchen cabinets

in homes. Still others focus on production or commercial work to help construct tall buildings or bridges, installing

wooden concrete forms for cement footings or pillars. These carpenters also erect shoring and scaffolding for buildings.

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Summary What They Do Work Environment How to Become One Pay Job Outlook State & Area Data Similar Occupations More Info

Carpenters are involved in many different types of

construction.

Quick Facts: Carpenters

2019 Median Pay $48,330 per year 

$23.24 per hour

Typical Entry-Level Education High school diploma or equivalent

Work Experience in a Related Occupation None

On-the-job Training Apprenticeship

Number of Jobs, 2019 1,024,100

Job Outlook, 2019-29 0% (Little or no change)

Employment Change, 2019-29 -4,200

What Carpenters Do

Carpenters construct, repair, and install building frameworks and structures made from wood and other

materials.

Work Environment

Carpenters work indoors and outdoors on many types of construction projects, from installing kitchen cabinets to building highways and bridges.

How to Become a Carpenter

Carpenters typically learn on the job and through apprenticeships.

Pay

The median annual wage for carpenters was $48,330 in May 2019.

Job Outlook

Employment of carpenters is projected to show little or no change from 2019 to 2029.

State & Area Data

Explore resources for employment and wages by state and area for carpenters.

Similar Occupations

Compare the job duties, education, job growth, and pay of carpenters with similar occupations.

More Information, Including Links to O*NET

Learn more about carpenters by visiting additional resources, including O*NET, a source on key characteristics of workers and occupations.

CPTF000267 CPTF - 
9/29/2020 Carpenters : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm 2/5

Carpenters work with different tools.

<- Summary Work Environment ->

About this section

Self-employed carpenters often work

in residential construction.

<- What They Do How to Become One ->

About this section

Apprentice carpenters learn by

working with more experienced

coworkers.

Carpenters use many different tools to cut and shape wood, plastic, fiberglass, or drywall. They use handtools, including

squares, levels, and chisels, as well as many power tools, such as sanders, circular saws, nail guns, and welding

machines. On large projects, carpenters may use rigging hardware and cranes as part of the installation process. Carpenters may also use smart phones, tablets,

and other personal electronic devices to assist with planning, drafting, or other calculations. 

Carpenters fasten materials with nails, screws, staples, and adhesives and check their work to ensure that it is correct. They use tape measures or laser measures

on nearly every project to quickly determine distances. Many employers require carpenters to supply their own tools on the job.

The following are examples of types of carpenters:

Construction carpenters construct, install, and repair structures and fixtures of wood, plywood, and wallboard, using carpenters’ handtools and power tools.

Rough carpenters build rough wooden structures, such as concrete forms; scaffolds; tunnel, bridge, or sewer supports; and temporary frame shelters,

according to sketches, blueprints, or oral instructions.

Wood flooring installers put in a variety of materials, including plank, strip, end-grain, and parquet flooring. These wood products may be nailed in place or

glued down. Floor sanders and finishers may smooth the flooring onsite or it may be prefinished prior to installation.

Work Environment

Work Environment

Carpenters held about 1.0 million jobs in 2019. The largest employers of carpenters were as follows:

Self-employed workers 28%

Residenal building construcon 21

Nonresidenal building construcon 13

Building finishing contractors 12

Foundaon, structure, and building exterior contractors 10

Carpenters work indoors and outdoors on many types of construction projects, from installing kitchen cabinets to building

highways and bridges. Carpenters may work in cramped spaces and frequently alternate between lifting, standing, and

kneeling. Those who work outdoors are subject to variable weather, which may affect a project’s schedule.

Injuries and Illnesses

Carpenters sometimes get injured on the job, such as from strains caused by overexertion due to lifting and moving

materials. Other common injuries result from falls, slips, trips, and contact with objects or equipment. Workers often

wear equipment such as boots, hardhats, protective eyewear, and reflective vests as a safeguard against injuries.

Work Schedules

Most carpenters work full time, which may include evenings and weekends to meet clients’ deadlines. Extreme

temperatures or inclement weather may impact building construction timelines, which in turn may affect carpenters’ work hours.

How to Become One

How to Become a Carpenter

Carpenters typically need a high school diploma and learn on the job or through apprenticeships.

Education

A high school diploma or equivalent is typically required to enter the occupation. Certain high school courses, such as

mathematics and mechanical drawing, may be useful. Some vocational-technical schools offer associate’s degrees in

carpentry. The programs vary in length and teach basics and specialties in carpentry.

Training

Carpenters typically learn on the job or through apprenticeships. They often begin doing simple tasks, such as measuring

and cutting wood, under the guidance of experienced carpenters or other construction workers. They then progress to

more complex tasks, such as reading blueprints and building wooden structures.

Several groups, such as unions and contractor associations, sponsor apprenticeship programs. For each year of a typical

program, apprentices must complete a predetermined number of hours of technical training and paid on-the-job training.

Apprenticeship program requirements differ based on the type of program and by region. Apprentices learn carpentry

basics, blueprint reading, mathematics, building code requirements, and safety and first aid practices. They also may

receive specialized training in creating and setting concrete forms, rigging, welding, scaffold building, and working within

confined workspaces. All carpenters must pass the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) 10-hour

safety course.

Work Experience in a Related Occupation

Some carpenters work as construction laborers or helpers before becoming carpenters. Laborers and helpers learn tasks that are similar to those of carpenters.

Licenses, Certifications, and Registrations

Carpenters may need a driver’s license to travel to jobsites.

CPTF000268 CPTF - 
9/29/2020 Carpenters : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm 3/5

<- Work Environment Pay ->

About this section

Carpenters

<- How to Become One Job Outlook ->

About this section

Carpenters

Optional programs offer certification by specialty that may allow carpenters to find additional work opportunities or lead to career advancement. For example, the

National Association of the Remodeling Industry offers various levels of certification for remodeling. The National Wood Flooring Association offers

certification for installers, craftsman, and master craftsman.

Advancement

Carpenters are involved in many phases of construction and may have opportunities to become first-line supervisors, lead carpenters, independent contractors, or

general construction supervisors.

Important Qualities

Business skills. Self-employed carpenters must conduct activities such as bidding on new jobs, tracking inventory, and directing workers.

Detail oriented. Carpenters must be able to precisely cut, measure, and modify the materials they work with.

Dexterity. Carpenters use many tools and need hand-eye coordination to avoid injuring themselves or damaging materials.

Interpersonal skills. Carpenters need to work as a member of a team, cooperating with and assisting others. They also may interact with customers. 

Math skills. Carpenters frequently use math skills, including basic trigonometry, to calculate the area, size, and amount of material needed for the job. 

Physical strength. Carpenters use heavy tools and materials that weigh up to 100 pounds. They also must be able to stand, climb, or bend for many hours.

Problem-solving skills. Carpenters may work independently with little guidance. They need to be able to modify building materials and make adjustments

onsite to complete projects.

Reading comprehension skills. Carpenters need advanced reading ability to understand and follow complex instructions for installing certain products, such as

doors.

Pay

Pay

The median annual wage for carpenters was $48,330 in May 2019. The median wage

is the wage at which half the workers in an occupation earned more than that

amount and half earned less. The lowest 10 percent earned less than $30,170, and

the highest 10 percent earned more than $84,690.

In May 2019, the median annual wages for carpenters in the top industries in which

they worked were as follows:

Nonresidenal building construcon $53,040

Building finishing contractors 49,440

Foundaon, structure, and building exterior contractors 46,850

Residenal building construcon 46,290

The starting pay for apprentices is less than what fully trained carpenters make. As

apprentices gain experience, they receive more pay.

Most carpenters work full time, which may include evenings and weekends to meet

clients’ deadlines. Extreme temperatures or inclement weather may impact building construction timelines, which in turn may affect carpenters’ hours.

Job Outlook

Job Outlook

Employment of carpenters is projected to show little or no change from 2019 to

2029.

Population growth should result in more new-home construction—one of the largest

segments employing carpenters—which will create some jobs for carpenters.

Construction of factories and power plants is also expected to result in some new

jobs over the decade.

However, the increasing popularity of modular and prefabricated components and

homes reduces the need for carpenters to build and install them onsite. Roofs,

bathrooms, windows, and buildings can be manufactured in a separate facility and

then assembled onsite.

Job Prospects

About 89,000 openings for carpenters are projected each year, on average, over the

decade.

Most of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who

transfer to different occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire.

Median annual wages, May 2019

Carpenters

$48,330

Construction trades workers

$46,340

Total, all occupations

$39,810

Note: All Occupations includes all occupations in the U.S. Economy.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics

Percent change in employment, projected 2019-29

Total, all occupations

4%

Construction trades workers

3%

Carpenters

0% Note: All Occupations includes all occupations in the U.S. Economy.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program

CPTF000269 CPTF - 
9/29/2020 Carpenters : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm 4/5

<- Pay State & Area Data ->

About this section

<- Job Outlook Similar Occupations ->

About this section

<- State & Area Data More Info ->

Overall job prospects for carpenters should be good as construction activity continues to increase. Prospective carpenters with a set of basic carpentry tools will

have the best prospects.

Carpenters and other occupations in the construction industry are subject to periods of unemployment as building construction slows during cold months.

Additionally, the number of job openings is expected to vary regionally, because different areas of the country are experiencing more development than others.

Employment projections data for carpenters, 2019-29

Occupational Title SOC Code Employment, 2019 Projected Employment, 2029

Change, 2019-29

Percent Numeric Employment by Industry

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program

Carpenters 47-2031 1,024,100 1,019,900 0 -4,200 Get data

State & Area Data

State & Area Data

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

The Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program produces employment and wage estimates annually for over 800 occupations. These estimates are

available for the nation as a whole, for individual states, and for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. The link(s) below go to OES data maps for employment

and wages by state and area.

Carpenters

Projections Central

Occupational employment projections are developed for all states by Labor Market Information (LMI) or individual state Employment Projections offices. All state

projections data are available at www.projectionscentral.com . Information on this site allows projected employment growth for an occupation to be compared

among states or to be compared within one state. In addition, states may produce projections for areas; there are links to each state’s websites where these data

may be retrieved.

CareerOneStop

CareerOneStop includes hundreds of occupational profiles with data available by state and metro area. There are links in the left-hand side menu to compare

occupational employment by state and occupational wages by local area or metro area. There is also a salary info tool to search for wages by zip code.

Similar Occupations

Similar Occupations

This table shows a list of occupations with job duties that are similar to those of carpenters.

OCCUPATION JOB DUTIES ENTRY-LEVEL EDUCATION 2019 MEDIAN PAY 

Construction and

Building

Inspectors

Construction and building inspectors ensure that

construction meets building codes and ordinances, zoning

regulations, and contract specifications.

High school diploma or

equivalent $60,710

Construction

Laborers and

Helpers

Construction laborers and helpers perform many tasks

that require physical labor on construction sites. See How to Become One $36,000

Drywall

Installers, Ceiling

Tile Installers,

and Tapers

Drywall and ceiling tile installers hang wallboard and

install ceiling tile inside buildings. Tapers prepare the

wallboard for painting, using tape and other materials.

No formal educational

credential $47,360

Flooring

Installers and

Tile and Marble

Setters

Flooring installers and tile and marble setters lay and

finish carpet, wood, vinyl, and tile.

No formal educational

credential $42,050

General

Maintenance and

Repair Workers

General maintenance and repair workers fix and maintain

machines, mechanical equipment, and buildings.

High school diploma or

equivalent $39,080

Insulation

Workers

Insulation workers install and replace the materials used

to insulate buildings or mechanical systems. See How to Become One $44,180

Roofers Roofers replace, repair, and install the roofs of buildings. No formal educational

credential $42,100

Solar

Photovoltaic

Installers

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installers assemble, set up, and

maintain rooftop or other systems that convert sunlight

into energy.

High school diploma or

equivalent $44,890

Woodworkers

Woodworkers manufacture a variety of products such as

cabinets and furniture, using wood, veneers, and

laminates.

High school diploma or

equivalent $32,690

CPTF000270 CPTF - 
9/29/2020 Carpenters : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm 5/5

About this section

<- Similar Occupations

More Info

Contacts for More Information

For details about apprenticeships or other work opportunities in this trade, contact the offices of the state employment service, the state apprenticeship agency,

local contractors or firms that employ carpenters, or local union–management carpenter apprenticeship committees. Apprenticeship information is available from

the U.S. Department of Labor’s Apprenticeship program online or by phone at 877-872-5627. Visit Apprenticeship.gov to search for apprenticeship

opportunities.

For more information about carpenters, including training opportunities, visit

Associated Builders and Contractors

Associated General Contractors of America

Home Builders Institute

National Association of the Remodeling Industry

NCCER

National Wood Flooring Association

Occupational Safety and Health Administration

United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America, Carpenters Training Fund

For more information about pre-apprenticeship training, visit

Home Builders Institute

National Building Trades Union

For information about opportunities for military veterans, visit:

Helmets to Hard Hats

O*NET

Carpenters

Construction Carpenters

Rough Carpenters

SUGGESTED CITATION:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Outlook Handbook, Carpenters, 

on the Internet at https://www.bls.gov/ooh/construction-and-extraction/carpenters.htm (visited September 11, 2020).

Last Modified Date: Thursday, September 10, 2020

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections PSB Suite 2135 2 Massachusetts Avenue NE Washington, DC

20212-0001

Telephone: 1-202-691-5700 www.bls.gov/ooh Contact OOH

CPTF000271 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #26 - 6.04 Ten-year Experience for Certain Critical Assumptions

26.0

Does the application describe the plan's experience for certain critical assumptions, including a 

disclosure for each of the 10 plan years immediately preceding the application that separately 

identifies: 

• Total contributions; 

• Total contribution base units; 

• Average contribution rates; 

• Withdrawal liability payments; and 

• Rate of return on plan assets?

See section 6.04 of Revenue Procedure 2017-43. 

Document 26.1 describes the Pension Plan's experience for certain critical assumptions with 

respect to the above-listed factors. 

CPTF000272 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #26 - 6.04 Ten-year Experience for Certain Critical Assumptions

26.1

Document 26.1

Pension Plan's Ten-Year Experience for Certain Critical Assumptions

Plan Year

Ending

4/30:

Base

Units

(Hours)

Average 

Hourly

Rate

Contributions 

Excluding EWL

Payments

EWL

Payments

Return on 

Assets

(Mkt Value)

2011 6,572,509 $ 9.95 $ 65,371,474 $ 55,520 10.62%

2012 7,131,329 11.62 82,849,388 1,355,000 -3.63%

2013 6,689,107 13.74 91,919,158 540,000 6.31%

2014 6,386,096 15.33 97,871,522 - 10.51%

2015 6,965,968 15.15 105,528,508 1,180,886 4.42%

2016 7,446,260 14.94 111,258,164 - -0.22%

2017 7,478,853 14.27 106,706,279 - 11.13%

2018 8,332,526 14.78 123,139,985 7,236 7.87%

2019 7,795,753 14.56 113,494,825 3,100,521 6.65%

2020 7,212,686 15.12 109,035,749 52,500 -1.46%

Averages

5-year 7,653,216 14.73 112,727,000 632,051 4.68%1

10-year 7,201,109 13.94 100,717,505 629,166 5.10%1

Sources

• Hours: 2011-2020 from most recent valuation data as of April 30, 2020

• Contributions Excluding EWL Payments and Return on Assets: 2011-2019 from audited 

financial statements, 2020 from unaudited financials

• EWL Payments: Supplied by Fund Counsel

• Average Contribution Rate: Calculated from other columns

1Geometric average shown

CPTF000273 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.0

Does the application include deterministic projections of the sensitivity of the plan's solvency ratio 

throughout the extended period by taking into account more conservative assumptions of 

investment experience and future contribution base units than assumed elsewhere in the 

application? 

See Section 6.05 of Revenue Procedure 2017-43. 

Document 27.1 helps the user gauge the sensitivity of deterministic projections of the Pension 

Plan's solvency ratio throughout the extended period to certain key assumptions. Note that, while 

the checklist description talks about using more conservative assumptions for future contribution 

base units, assuming that the 10-year trend continues into the future is actually more aggressive

than the projection assumptions used elsewhere in this filing.

CPTF000274 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.1

Document 27.1

Pension Plan's Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

The following exhibits provide 4 separate, deterministic solvency ratio projections intended to help 

gauge the sensitivity of the projections to certain key assumptions as required by Section 6.05 of 

Revenue Procedure 2017-43. Each exhibit was prepared recognizing the proposed suspension. As 

permitted by Section 6.05, Exhibits III and IV do not recognize any change in expected benefit 

payments that may result from using alternate assumptions regarding future contribution base 

units.

• Exhibit I projects the Pension Plan's solvency ratio using assumed rates of return reduced 

by one percentage point (beginning with the plan year ending April 30, 2022);

• Exhibit II projects the Pension Plan's solvency ratio using assumed rates of return reduced 

by 2 percentage points (beginning with the plan year ending April 30, 2022);

• Exhibit III projects the Pension Plan's solvency ratio using a 1.04% contribution base unit 

trend (beginning with the plan year ending April 30, 2022), which is equal to the trend that 

the Pension Plan experienced over the 10 plan years ending April 30, 2020; and

• Exhibit IV projects the Pension Plan's solvency ratio using a 0.04% contribution base unit 

trend (beginning with the plan year ending April 30, 2022), which is equal to the trend 

assumed in Exhibit III reduced by one percentage point.

The assumed rates of return for Exhibits I and II are as shown below:

Plan Years Ending 

4/30:

Assumed Rates of Return Used For:

Section 4.02(1) of 

Rev. Proc. 2017-43 Exhibit I Exhibit II

2022-2030 6.50% 5.50% 4.50%

2031-2033 7.35% 6.35% 5.35%

2034-2046 6.75% 5.75% 4.75%

2047+ 7.35% 6.35% 5.35%

The alternative rate of return assumptions above were assumed to first apply following the initial 

period. That is, the April 30, 2021 market value of plan assets is the same for all scenarios.

CPTF000275 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.2

Hours (contribution base units) increased from 6,572,509 in plan year ending April 30, 2011 to 

7,212,686 in plan year ending April 30, 2020. This represents a compound annual increase of 1.04% 

per year for the 10-year period.

Based on the preceding calculation, the assumed work hours for Exhibits III and IV are as shown 

below:

Plan Year Ending 

4/30:

Assumed Work Hours Used For:

Section 4.02(1) of 

Rev. Proc. 2017-43 Exhibit III Exhibit IV

2022 7,000,000 7,363,4901 7,218,4572

2023 7,000,000 7,440,070 7,221,344

2024 6,900,000 7,517,447 7,224,233

2025 6,900,000 7,595,628 7,227,123

2026 6,900,000 7,674,623 7,230,014

2027+ 6,900,000 increases @1.04%/yr. increases @0.04%/yr.

The alternative work hours assumptions above were assumed to first apply following the initial 

period. That is, the April 30, 2021 market value of plan assets is the same for all scenarios.

1 Hours for plan year ending April 30, 2020 (7,212,686) increased by 1.04% for 2 years (compounded)

2 Hours for plan year ending April 30, 2020 (7,212,686) increased by 0.04% for 2 years (compounded)

CPTF000276 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.3

Exhibit I – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using Assumed Rates of Return Reduced 

By One Percentage Point

The projected Solvency Ratio for Plan Years ending April 30, 2022 through April 30, 2056 using assumed rates of return reduced by 

one percentage point is shown below:

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2022 $718,511,349 $103,950,000 $36,159 $963,841 $133,717,059 $4,688,160 $38,598,106 $723,654,236 $857,371,295 6.41

4/30/2023 $723,654,236 $103,950,000 $36,159 $963,841 $130,564,993 $4,288,676 $38,978,632 $732,729,199 $863,294,192 6.61

4/30/2024 $732,729,199 $102,465,000 $36,159 $763,841 $133,219,618 $4,391,604 $39,355,585 $737,738,562 $870,958,180 6.54

4/30/2025 $737,738,562 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $136,150,959 $4,497,002 $39,543,464 $739,749,065 $875,900,024 6.43

4/30/2026 $739,749,065 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $139,043,884 $4,604,930 $39,571,519 $738,786,770 $877,830,654 6.31

4/30/2027 $738,786,770 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $141,877,505 $4,715,448 $39,437,629 $734,746,446 $876,623,951 6.18

4/30/2028 $734,746,446 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $144,612,729 $4,828,619 $39,137,080 $727,557,178 $872,169,907 6.03

4/30/2029 $727,557,178 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $147,351,216 $4,944,506 $38,663,175 $717,039,631 $864,390,847 5.87

4/30/2030 $717,039,631 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $149,892,369 $5,063,174 $38,011,565 $703,210,653 $853,103,022 5.69

4/30/2031 $703,210,653 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $152,168,711 $5,184,690 $37,931,807 $686,904,059 $839,072,770 5.51

4/30/2032 $686,904,059 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $154,210,241 $5,309,123 $41,827,569 $672,327,264 $826,537,505 5.36

4/30/2033 $672,327,264 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $155,935,480 $5,436,542 $40,843,121 $654,913,363 $810,848,843 5.20

4/30/2034 $654,913,363 $102,465,000 $12,056 $637,944 $157,264,909 $5,567,019 $35,940,657 $631,137,092 $788,402,001 5.01

4/30/2035 $631,137,092 $102,465,000 $7,236 $642,764 $158,038,895 $5,700,627 $34,547,428 $605,059,998 $763,098,893 4.83

4/30/2036 $605,059,998 $102,465,000 $7,236 $642,764 $158,434,253 $5,837,442 $33,032,695 $576,935,998 $735,370,251 4.64

4/30/2037 $576,935,998 $102,465,000 $7,236 $642,764 $158,473,879 $5,977,541 $31,410,398 $547,009,976 $705,483,855 4.45

4/30/2038 $547,009,976 $102,465,000 $3,618 $646,382 $158,241,874 $6,121,002 $29,692,197 $515,454,297 $673,696,171 4.26

4/30/2039 $515,454,297 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $157,476,679 $6,267,906 $27,895,522 $482,720,234 $640,196,913 4.07

4/30/2040 $482,720,234 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $156,552,426 $6,418,336 $26,035,560 $448,900,032 $605,452,458 3.87

4/30/2041 $448,900,032 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $155,088,226 $6,572,376 $24,128,566 $414,482,996 $569,571,222 3.67

4/30/2042 $414,482,996 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $153,489,329 $6,730,113 $22,191,020 $379,569,574 $533,058,903 3.47

CPTF000277 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.4

Exhibit I – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using Assumed Rates of Return Reduced 

By One Percentage Point (Cont.)

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2043 $379,569,574 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $151,543,284 $6,891,636 $20,234,803 $344,484,457 $496,027,741 3.27

4/30/2044 $344,484,457 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $149,096,235 $7,057,035 $18,283,006 $309,729,193 $458,825,428 3.08

4/30/2045 $309,729,193 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $146,609,729 $7,226,404 $16,351,196 $275,359,256 $421,968,985 2.88

4/30/2046 $275,359,256 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $143,911,423 $7,399,838 $14,447,515 $241,610,510 $385,521,933 2.68

4/30/2047 $241,610,510 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $140,968,745 $7,577,434 $13,899,827 $210,079,158 $351,047,903 2.49

4/30/2048 $210,079,158 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $137,723,183 $7,759,292 $11,994,859 $179,706,542 $317,429,725 2.30

4/30/2049 $179,706,542 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $134,371,393 $7,945,515 $10,166,705 $150,671,339 $285,042,732 2.12

4/30/2050 $150,671,339 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $130,988,789 $8,136,207 $8,424,313 $123,085,656 $254,074,445 1.94

4/30/2051 $123,085,656 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $127,451,704 $8,331,476 $6,778,724 $97,196,200 $224,647,904 1.76

4/30/2052 $97,196,200 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $123,863,146 $8,531,431 $5,242,332 $73,158,955 $197,022,101 1.59

4/30/2053 $73,158,955 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $120,229,688 $8,736,185 $3,824,828 $51,132,910 $171,362,598 1.43

4/30/2054 $51,132,910 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $116,596,662 $8,945,853 $2,534,866 $31,240,261 $147,836,923 1.27

4/30/2055 $31,240,261 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $113,114,759 $9,160,553 $1,375,417 $13,455,366 $126,570,125 1.12

4/30/2056 $13,455,366 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $109,640,048 $9,380,406 $349,418 insolvent $107,539,378 0.98

CPTF000278 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.5

Exhibit II – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using Assumed Rates of Return 

Reduced By 2 Percentage Points

The projected Solvency Ratio for Plan Years ending April 30, 2022 through April 30, 2046 using assumed rates of return reduced by 2 

percentage points is shown below:

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2022 $718,511,349 $103,950,000 $36,159 $963,841 $133,717,059 $4,688,160 $31,580,268 $716,636,398 $850,353,457 6.36

4/30/2023 $716,636,398 $103,950,000 $36,159 $963,841 $130,564,993 $4,288,676 $31,575,805 $718,308,534 $848,873,527 6.50

4/30/2024 $718,308,534 $102,465,000 $36,159 $763,841 $133,219,618 $4,391,604 $31,551,094 $715,513,406 $848,733,024 6.37

4/30/2025 $715,513,406 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $136,150,959 $4,497,002 $31,353,612 $709,334,057 $845,485,016 6.21

4/30/2026 $709,334,057 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $139,043,884 $4,604,930 $31,008,022 $699,808,265 $838,852,149 6.03

4/30/2027 $699,808,265 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $141,877,505 $4,715,448 $30,513,118 $686,843,430 $828,720,935 5.84

4/30/2028 $686,843,430 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $144,612,729 $4,828,619 $29,865,612 $670,382,694 $814,995,423 5.64

4/30/2029 $670,382,694 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $147,351,216 $4,944,506 $29,060,655 $650,262,627 $797,613,843 5.41

4/30/2030 $650,262,627 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $149,892,369 $5,063,174 $23,095,406 $621,517,490 $771,409,859 5.15

4/30/2031 $621,517,490 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $152,168,711 $5,184,690 $31,800,308 $599,079,397 $751,248,108 4.94

4/30/2032 $599,079,397 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $154,210,241 $5,309,123 $30,541,931 $573,216,964 $727,427,205 4.72

4/30/2033 $573,216,964 $102,465,000 $36,159 $613,841 $155,935,480 $5,436,542 $29,108,732 $544,068,674 $700,004,154 4.49

4/30/2034 $544,068,674 $102,465,000 $12,056 $637,944 $157,264,909 $5,567,019 $24,424,985 $508,776,731 $666,041,640 4.24

4/30/2035 $508,776,731 $102,465,000 $7,236 $642,764 $158,038,895 $5,700,627 $22,727,062 $470,879,271 $628,918,166 3.98

4/30/2036 $470,879,271 $102,465,000 $7,236 $642,764 $158,434,253 $5,837,442 $20,914,294 $430,636,870 $589,071,123 3.72

4/30/2037 $430,636,870 $102,465,000 $7,236 $642,764 $158,473,879 $5,977,541 $18,998,511 $388,298,961 $546,772,840 3.45

4/30/2038 $388,298,961 $102,465,000 $3,618 $646,382 $158,241,874 $6,121,002 $16,989,564 $344,040,649 $502,282,523 3.17

4/30/2039 $344,040,649 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $157,476,679 $6,267,906 $14,901,978 $298,313,042 $455,789,721 2.89

4/30/2040 $298,313,042 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $156,552,426 $6,418,336 $12,748,295 $251,205,575 $407,758,001 2.60

4/30/2041 $251,205,575 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $155,088,226 $6,572,376 $10,541,807 $203,201,780 $358,290,006 2.31

4/30/2042 $203,201,780 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $153,489,329 $6,730,113 $8,295,854 $154,393,192 $307,882,521 2.01

CPTF000279 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.6

Exhibit II – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using Assumed Rates of Return 

Reduced By 2 Percentage Points (Cont.)

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2043 $154,393,192 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $151,543,284 $6,891,636 $6,019,829 $105,093,101 $256,636,385 1.69

4/30/2044 $105,093,101 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $149,096,235 $7,057,035 $3,732,263 $55,787,094 $204,883,329 1.37

4/30/2045 $55,787,094 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $146,609,729 $7,226,404 $1,445,260 $6,511,221 $153,120,950 1.04

4/30/2046 $6,511,221 $102,465,000 $0 $650,000 $143,911,423 $7,399,838 ($835,378) insolvent $101,391,005 0.70

CPTF000280 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.7

Exhibit III – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using a 1.04% Contribution Base Unit 

Trend

The projected Solvency Ratio for Plan Years ending April 30, 2022 through April 30, 2052 using a 1.04% contribution base unit trend

is shown below:

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2022 $718,511,349 $109,347,826 $36,159 $963,841 $133,717,059 $4,688,160 $45,791,372 $736,245,328 $869,962,387 6.51

4/30/2023 $736,245,328 $110,485,044 $36,159 $963,841 $130,564,993 $4,288,676 $47,096,466 $759,973,169 $890,538,162 6.82

4/30/2024 $759,973,169 $111,634,088 $36,159 $763,841 $133,219,618 $4,391,604 $48,579,999 $783,376,034 $916,595,652 6.88

4/30/2025 $783,376,034 $112,795,083 $36,159 $613,841 $136,150,959 $4,497,002 $50,035,349 $806,208,505 $942,359,464 6.92

4/30/2026 $806,208,505 $113,968,152 $36,159 $613,841 $139,043,884 $4,604,930 $51,460,056 $828,637,899 $967,681,783 6.96

4/30/2027 $828,637,899 $115,153,420 $36,159 $613,841 $141,877,505 $4,715,448 $52,860,804 $850,709,170 $992,586,675 7.00

4/30/2028 $850,709,170 $116,351,016 $36,159 $613,841 $144,612,729 $4,828,619 $54,241,785 $872,510,623 $1,017,123,352 7.03

4/30/2029 $872,510,623 $117,561,067 $36,159 $613,841 $147,351,216 $4,944,506 $55,605,439 $894,031,407 $1,041,382,623 7.07

4/30/2030 $894,031,407 $118,783,702 $36,159 $613,841 $149,892,369 $5,063,174 $56,957,582 $915,467,148 $1,065,359,517 7.11

4/30/2031 $915,467,148 $120,019,052 $36,159 $613,841 $152,168,711 $5,184,690 $65,938,686 $944,721,485 $1,096,890,196 7.21

4/30/2032 $944,721,485 $121,267,250 $36,159 $613,841 $154,210,241 $5,309,123 $68,055,151 $975,174,522 $1,129,384,763 7.32

4/30/2033 $975,174,522 $122,528,430 $36,159 $613,841 $155,935,480 $5,436,542 $70,271,713 $1,007,252,643 $1,163,188,123 7.46

4/30/2034 $1,007,252,643 $123,802,725 $12,056 $637,944 $157,264,909 $5,567,019 $66,694,255 $1,035,567,695 $1,192,832,604 7.58

4/30/2035 $1,035,567,695 $125,090,274 $7,236 $642,764 $158,038,895 $5,700,627 $68,618,345 $1,066,186,792 $1,224,225,687 7.75

4/30/2036 $1,066,186,792 $126,391,213 $7,236 $642,764 $158,434,253 $5,837,442 $70,711,080 $1,099,667,390 $1,258,101,643 7.94

4/30/2037 $1,099,667,390 $127,705,681 $7,236 $642,764 $158,473,879 $5,977,541 $73,009,318 $1,136,580,969 $1,295,054,848 8.17

4/30/2038 $1,136,580,969 $129,033,820 $3,618 $646,382 $158,241,874 $6,121,002 $75,548,797 $1,177,450,710 $1,335,692,584 8.44

4/30/2039 $1,177,450,710 $130,375,772 $0 $650,000 $157,476,679 $6,267,906 $78,373,663 $1,223,105,560 $1,380,582,239 8.77

4/30/2040 $1,223,105,560 $131,731,680 $0 $650,000 $156,552,426 $6,418,336 $81,527,244 $1,274,043,722 $1,430,596,148 9.14

4/30/2041 $1,274,043,722 $133,101,689 $0 $650,000 $155,088,226 $6,572,376 $85,056,025 $1,331,190,834 $1,486,279,060 9.58

4/30/2042 $1,331,190,834 $134,485,947 $0 $650,000 $153,489,329 $6,730,113 $89,008,813 $1,395,116,152 $1,548,605,481 10.09

CPTF000281 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.8

Exhibit III – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using a 1.04% Contribution Base Unit 

Trend (Cont.)

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments 6. Expenses

7. Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2043 $1,395,116,152 $135,884,601 $0 $650,000 $151,543,284 $6,891,636 $93,431,204 $1,466,647,037 $1,618,190,321 10.68

4/30/2044 $1,466,647,037 $137,297,801 $0 $650,000 $149,096,235 $7,057,035 $98,384,240 $1,546,825,808 $1,695,922,043 11.37

4/30/2045 $1,546,825,808 $138,725,698 $0 $650,000 $146,609,729 $7,226,404 $103,922,702 $1,636,288,075 $1,782,897,804 12.16

4/30/2046 $1,636,288,075 $140,168,445 $0 $650,000 $143,911,423 $7,399,838 $110,095,313 $1,735,890,572 $1,879,801,995 13.06

4/30/2047 $1,735,890,572 $141,626,197 $0 $650,000 $140,968,745 $7,577,434 $127,357,535 $1,856,978,125 $1,997,946,870 14.17

4/30/2048 $1,856,978,125 $143,099,109 $0 $650,000 $137,723,183 $7,759,292 $136,424,191 $1,991,668,950 $2,129,392,133 15.46

4/30/2049 $1,991,668,950 $144,587,340 $0 $650,000 $134,371,393 $7,945,515 $146,494,994 $2,141,084,376 $2,275,455,769 16.93

4/30/2050 $2,141,084,376 $146,091,048 $0 $650,000 $130,988,789 $8,136,207 $157,649,592 $2,306,350,020 $2,437,338,809 18.61

4/30/2051 $2,306,350,020 $147,610,395 $0 $650,000 $127,451,704 $8,331,476 $169,975,264 $2,488,802,499 $2,616,254,203 20.53

4/30/2052 $2,488,802,499 $149,145,543 $0 $650,000 $123,863,146 $8,531,431 $183,566,469 $2,689,769,934 $2,813,633,080 22.72

CPTF000282 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.9

Exhibit IV – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using a 0.04% Contribution Base Unit 

Trend

The projected Solvency Ratio for Plan Years ending April 30, 2022 through April 30, 2052 using a 0.04% contribution base unit trend 

is shown below:

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2022 $718,511,349 $107,194,091 $36,159 $963,841 $133,717,059 $4,688,160 $45,721,376 $734,021,597 $867,738,656 6.49

4/30/2023 $734,021,597 $107,236,969 $36,159 $963,841 $130,564,993 $4,288,676 $46,846,361 $754,251,258 $884,816,251 6.78

4/30/2024 $754,251,258 $107,279,863 $36,159 $763,841 $133,219,618 $4,391,604 $48,066,563 $772,786,462 $906,006,080 6.80

4/30/2025 $772,786,462 $107,322,775 $36,159 $613,841 $136,150,959 $4,497,002 $49,169,176 $789,280,452 $925,431,411 6.80

4/30/2026 $789,280,452 $107,365,704 $36,159 $613,841 $139,043,884 $4,604,930 $50,145,153 $803,792,495 $942,836,379 6.78

4/30/2027 $803,792,495 $107,408,651 $36,159 $613,841 $141,877,505 $4,715,448 $50,994,147 $816,252,340 $958,129,845 6.75

4/30/2028 $816,252,340 $107,451,614 $36,159 $613,841 $144,612,729 $4,828,619 $51,712,861 $826,625,467 $971,238,196 6.72

4/30/2029 $826,625,467 $107,494,595 $36,159 $613,841 $147,351,216 $4,944,506 $52,295,744 $834,770,084 $982,121,300 6.67

4/30/2030 $834,770,084 $107,537,593 $36,159 $613,841 $149,892,369 $5,063,174 $52,740,097 $840,742,231 $990,634,600 6.61

4/30/2031 $840,742,231 $107,580,608 $36,159 $613,841 $152,168,711 $5,184,690 $59,989,291 $851,608,729 $1,003,777,440 6.60

4/30/2032 $851,608,729 $107,623,640 $36,159 $613,841 $154,210,241 $5,309,123 $60,709,961 $861,072,966 $1,015,283,207 6.58

4/30/2033 $861,072,966 $107,666,689 $36,159 $613,841 $155,935,480 $5,436,542 $61,339,080 $869,356,713 $1,025,292,193 6.58

4/30/2034 $869,356,713 $107,709,756 $12,056 $637,944 $157,264,909 $5,567,019 $56,843,142 $871,727,683 $1,028,992,592 6.54

4/30/2035 $871,727,683 $107,752,840 $7,236 $642,764 $158,038,895 $5,700,627 $56,974,006 $873,365,007 $1,031,403,902 6.53

4/30/2036 $873,365,007 $107,795,941 $7,236 $642,764 $158,434,253 $5,837,442 $57,068,019 $874,607,272 $1,033,041,525 6.52

4/30/2037 $874,607,272 $107,839,059 $7,236 $642,764 $158,473,879 $5,977,541 $57,147,261 $875,792,172 $1,034,266,051 6.53

4/30/2038 $875,792,172 $107,882,195 $3,618 $646,382 $158,241,874 $6,121,002 $57,231,686 $877,193,177 $1,035,435,051 6.54

4/30/2039 $877,193,177 $107,925,348 $0 $650,000 $157,476,679 $6,267,906 $57,348,578 $879,372,518 $1,036,849,197 6.58

4/30/2040 $879,372,518 $107,968,518 $0 $650,000 $156,552,426 $6,418,336 $57,523,257 $882,543,531 $1,039,095,957 6.64

4/30/2041 $882,543,531 $108,011,706 $0 $650,000 $155,088,226 $6,572,376 $57,782,976 $887,327,611 $1,042,415,837 6.72

4/30/2042 $887,327,611 $108,054,910 $0 $650,000 $153,489,329 $6,730,113 $58,155,998 $893,969,077 $1,047,458,406 6.82

CPTF000283 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #27 – 6.05 Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

27.10

Exhibit IV – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using a 0.04% Contribution Base Unit 

Trend (Cont.)

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments 6. Expenses

7. Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2043 $893,969,077 $108,098,132 $0 $650,000 $151,543,284 $6,891,636 $58,665,984 $902,948,273 $1,054,491,557 6.96

4/30/2044 $902,948,273 $108,141,371 $0 $650,000 $149,096,235 $7,057,035 $59,350,544 $914,936,918 $1,064,033,153 7.14

4/30/2045 $914,936,918 $108,184,628 $0 $650,000 $146,609,729 $7,226,404 $60,239,441 $930,174,854 $1,076,784,583 7.34

4/30/2046 $930,174,854 $108,227,902 $0 $650,000 $143,911,423 $7,399,838 $61,354,677 $949,096,172 $1,093,007,595 7.60

4/30/2047 $949,096,172 $108,271,193 $0 $650,000 $140,968,745 $7,577,434 $68,302,350 $977,773,536 $1,118,742,281 7.94

4/30/2048 $977,773,536 $108,314,501 $0 $650,000 $137,723,183 $7,759,292 $70,524,319 $1,011,779,881 $1,149,503,064 8.35

4/30/2049 $1,011,779,881 $108,357,827 $0 $650,000 $134,371,393 $7,945,515 $73,141,713 $1,051,612,513 $1,185,983,906 8.83

4/30/2050 $1,051,612,513 $108,401,170 $0 $650,000 $130,988,789 $8,136,207 $76,188,307 $1,097,726,994 $1,228,715,783 9.38

4/30/2051 $1,097,726,994 $108,444,531 $0 $650,000 $127,451,704 $8,331,476 $79,702,126 $1,150,740,471 $1,278,192,175 10.03

4/30/2052 $1,150,740,471 $108,487,909 $0 $650,000 $123,863,146 $8,531,431 $83,724,742 $1,211,208,545 $1,335,071,691 10.78

CPTF000284 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #28 – 6.06 Projection of Funded Percentage

28.0

Does the plan include deterministic projections for each year in the extended period of: 

• the value of plan assets;

• the plan's accrued liability; and

• the plan's funded percentage?

See section 6.06 of Revenue Procedure 2017-43. 

Document 28.1 includes a deterministic projection for each year in the extended period of the 

value of the Pension Plan's assets, its accrued liability, and its funded percentage

CPTF000285 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #28 – 6.06 Projection of Funded Percentage

28.1

Document 28.1

Pension Plan's Projection of 

Assets, Liabilities, and Funded Percentage

Exhibit I projects the Pension Plan's funded percentage using the value of plan assets and accrued 

liabilities during the extended period of April 30, 2021 through 2052. The projection includes the 

impact of benefit suspensions and is made on the same basis as Exhibit III of document 6.2 of 

Checklist Item #6. 

Note that, as the suspension is assumed to be effective July 1, 2021, the April 20, 2021 liabilities 

do not reflect its impact. Liabilities and funded percentages were calculated using a discount rate 

of 7.50% (the discount rate utilized in the May 1, 2019 Actuarial Valuation Report).

CPTF000286 CPTF - 
Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

EIN/Plan #: 38-6242188/001

Checklist Item #28 – 6.06 Projection of Funded Percentage

28.2

Exhibit I – Projections of Plan’s Market Value of Assets, Accrued Liability, and Funded Percentage for Plan Years ending 2021 through 

2052 Recognizing Proposed Suspension (beginning with April 30, 2022 liability and funded percentage)

As of 

April 30,

1. Market 

Value of 

Assets

2. Unit Credit 

Accrued 

Liability

3. Funded 

Percentage

(1)/(2)

As of 

April 30,

1. Market 

Value of 

Assets

2. Unit Credit 

Accrued 

Liability

3. Funded 

Percentage

(1)/(2)

2021 $718,511,349 $2,275,068,764 31.58% 2037 $735,937,583 $1,633,831,276 45.04%

2022 $730,672,073 $1,763,409,887 41.44% 2038 $722,298,378 $1,603,727,160 45.04%

2023 $747,290,220 $1,774,931,364 42.10% 2039 $708,377,685 $1,572,159,787 45.06%

2024 $760,401,610 $1,784,201,264 42.62% 2040 $694,317,285 $1,539,229,946 45.11%

2025 $771,074,932 $1,790,839,057 43.06% 2041 $680,662,186 $1,505,377,117 45.22%

2026 $779,343,640 $1,794,674,996 43.43% 2042 $667,575,167 $1,470,648,719 45.39%

2027 $785,109,990 $1,795,589,503 43.72% 2043 $655,449,523 $1,435,373,472 45.66%

2028 $788,310,185 $1,793,432,518 43.96% 2044 $644,864,054 $1,400,065,072 46.06%

2029 $788,771,252 $1,787,978,879 44.12% 2045 $635,959,406 $1,364,752,851 46.60%

2030 $786,516,023 $1,779,221,030 44.21% 2046 $629,063,781 $1,329,627,601 47.31%

2031 $788,093,288 $1,767,177,557 44.60% 2047 $628,199,194 $1,295,005,310 48.51%

2032 $787,540,920 $1,751,843,193 44.95% 2048 $630,447,355 $1,261,228,898 49.99%

2033 $785,027,210 $1,733,343,604 45.29% 2049 $636,142,657 $1,228,479,881 51.78%

2034 $771,284,172 $1,711,962,740 45.05% 2050 $645,565,779 $1,196,874,013 53.94%

2035 $760,675,254 $1,688,109,205 45.06% 2051 $659,146,128 $1,166,598,129 56.50%

2036 $748,800,100 $1,662,005,167 45.05% 2052 $677,237,767 $1,137,858,847 59.52%

CPTF000287 CPTF -