RA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 1 of 19 

### RA 01 Risk Anal y sis and Assessment

RA 01: Guidance for Risk Analysis & Assessment

As defined by FAA AC 150/5200-37, risk is the composite of the predicted severity and probability of the outcome or

effect (harm) of a particular hazard. In order to assess the level of risk severity and probability are first determined.

Severity is determined by the worst credible potential outcome. Less severe effects may be considered in addition to

this, but at a minimum, the most severe effects are considered. Determination of severity is assessed independent of

probability.

Probability is the likelihood of a consequence related to the hazard occurring.

Every hazard is assessed in terms of its severity followed by an assessment of its probability to determine level of risk.

Definitions are provided to help guide the assessment.

The first action will be to determine a numer ical value for each category and conseq uence as listed in Part 1. Should

additional consequences be determined they will also be evaluated.

The second action will be to average the numbers previously determined and documented in Part 2.

The third action will be to plot the numbers on a risk matrix chart (example below). The risk matrix chart has degrees of

color based on levels of severity and probability. Green is the highest level of acceptability, lowest level severity and

lowest level of probability. Yellow is a caution area where the tolerability needs to be determined by the Safety Board. A

yellow hazard should be further addressed for mitigation to move the risk value to green or into green if practical. Red

should be considered not tolerable and should be addressed as soon as possible to move the risk value closer to yellow

and/or green.

The number factors for each square can range in tenths of a point, i.e.1.0 to 1.9, 3.0 to 3.9. These numbers per

category and consequence will then be added and divided for an average and then plotted per the example below. For

demonstration purposes, a possible hazard score could be 3.1 for severity and 4.3 for probability. This score (indicated

by a blue dot) is illustrated as an example below:

Part 1: Identify Hazard Consequences by Severity and Probability 

### ExampleRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 2 of 19 1. Hazard Tracking no. 2. Name: 

### 3: Date

3. Hazard Categories: 4. Hazard Consequences Rated by Severity and Probability:

1 – People: Threat to any airport

employee, tenant, contractor, travelling public,

and public at-large. Injury/Illness

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-No first aid required

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-Injury/illness, minor first aid required -

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Significant injury/illness 1 to 5 persons

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Significant injury/illness, 6-49 people

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Significant injury/illness, 50 or greater

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Death

SEVERITY

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Death, less than 2 persons

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Death, less than 5 persons (not Mass Casualty Incident)

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Significant injury, 50 or greater

-Death, 5 or greater, MCI

-Lost work time, greater than 1 month

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibl y onl y once in 10-100 y ears 

### Score

Score ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 3 of 19 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Loss of Work

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-No lost work time

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-Little to no lost work time, less than 2 days (16 hours)

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Lost work time, less than 1 week (40 hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Lost work time 1 week to 1 month

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Lost work time, greater than 1 month

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to

any disruption to airport operations including

aircraft delays, loss of operation of a facility,

runway, taxiway, ramp, navigational aids

(navaids), buildings, equipment, ATC,

roadways or any other infrastructure needed

to maintain normal operations and damage

that incurs an airport financial loss/impact. Movement Area Pavement Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

Ma j or = 3 to 3.9 points 

### Score Score

ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 4 of 19 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to any

disruption to airport operations including

aircraft delays, loss of operation of a facility,

runway, taxiway, ramp, navigational aids

(navaids), buildings, equipment, ATC,

roadways or any other infrastructure needed

to maintain normal operations and damage

that incurs an airport financial loss/impact -Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Movement Area Marking/Lighting/Signage Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points 

### Score

Score ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 5 of 19 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to

any disruption to airport operations

including aircraft delays, loss of operation

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp,

navigational aids (navaids), buildings,

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other

infrastructure needed to maintain normal

operations and damage that incurs an

airport financial loss/impact -Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

RWY Safety Area Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

-None to minimal equipment loss, less than 1 day out of service

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

-None to minimal equipment loss, less than 2 days out of service

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

TWY Safety Area Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours 

### Score ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 6 of 19 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to

any disruption to airport operations

including aircraft delays, loss of operation

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp,

navigational aids (navaids), buildings,

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other

infrastructure needed to maintain normal

operations and damage that incurs an

airport financial loss/impact -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Non Movement Area Pavement Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points 

### Score

Score ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 7 of 19 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to

any disruption to airport operations

including aircraft delays, loss of operation

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp,

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings,

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other

infrastructure needed to maintain normal

operations and damage that incurs an

airport financial loss/impact -Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Non Movement Area Marking/Lighting/Signage Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Access/Perimeter Road Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours 

### Score

Score Score

ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 8 of 19 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to

any disruption to airport operations

including aircraft delays, loss of operation

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp,

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings,

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other

infrastructure needed to maintain normal

operations and damage that incurs an

airport financial loss/impact PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Navigational Aids Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hour

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Damage to Airport Equipment/Vehicles 

### Score Score

ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 9 of 19 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to

any disruption to airport operations

including aircraft delays, loss of operation

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp,

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings,

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other

infrastructure needed to maintain normal

operations and damage that incurs an

airport financial loss/impact SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to minimal equipment lossless than 1 day out of service

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to minimal equipment loss less than 2 days out of service

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Equipment loss less than one week

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Equipment loss less than 30 days

Catastrophic = 5.5 points

-Total loss of equipment

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Damage to Aircraft

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to minimal equipment lossless than 1 day out of service

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to minimal equipment loss less than 2 days out of service

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Equipment loss less than one week)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Equipment loss less than 30 days

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Total loss of equipment

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points 

### Score

Score

ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 10 of 19 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to

any disruption to airport operations

including aircraft delays, loss of operation

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp,

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings,

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other

infrastructure needed to maintain normal

operations and damage that incurs an

airport financial loss/impact -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Damage to Tenant Equipment/Vehicles

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to minimal equipment lossless than 1 day out of service

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to minimal equipment loss less than 2 days out of service

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Equipment loss less than one week)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Equipment loss less than 30 days

Catastrophic = 5.5points

-Total loss of equipment

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Building Facilities Impacted

SEVERITY 

### Score

Score ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 11 of 19 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to

any disruption to airport operations

including aircraft delays, loss of operation

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp,

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings,

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other

infrastructure needed to maintain normal

operations and damage that incurs an

airport financial loss/impact Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Services Impacted (fueling, utilities, aircraft support)

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely 

### Score

Score ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 12 of 19 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to

any disruption to airport operations

including aircraft delays, loss of operation

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp,

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings,

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other

infrastructure needed to maintain normal

operations and damage that incurs an

airport financial loss/impact -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Terminal Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

-Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

-Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

-Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

-Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

3 – Environmental: Threat to any

impact either through a ground or air release

that may potentially harm the current natural

state. Impacts may include chemical,

emissions, and bio hazard agents. Water Supply Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-No environmental impact

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points 

### Score Score

ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 13 of 19 3 – Environmental: Threat to any impact

either through a ground or air release that may

potentially harm the cu rrent natural state.

Impacts may include chemical, emissions, and

bio hazard agents -Contained with none to limited impact

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Non-contained but manageable/mitigated within 1 day

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

- Non-contained, resulting in en vironmental impact 1 to 30 days

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Non-contained, long term impact, great than 30 days

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Ground/Soil Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-No environmental impact

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-Contained with none to limited impact

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Non-contained but manageable/mitigated within 1 day

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

- Non-contained, resulting in en vironmental impact 1 to 30 days

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Non-contained, long term impact, great than 30 days

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points 

### Score

Score Score

ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 14 of 19 3 – Environmental: Threat to any impact

either through a ground or air release that may

potentially harm the cu rrent natural state.

Impacts may include chemical, emissions, and

bio hazard agents -Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Air Quality Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-No environmental impact

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-Contained with none to limited impact

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Non-contained but manageable/mitigated within 1 day

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

- Non-contained, resulting in en vironmental impact 1 to 30 days

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Non-contained, long term impact, great than 30 days

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Wildlife Impacted

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-No environmental impact

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-Contained with none to limited impact

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Non-contained but manageable/mitigated within 1 day

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

- Non-contained, resulting in en vironmental impact 1 to 30 days

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Non-contained, lon g

term impact, g reat than 30 da y

s 

### Score

Score ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 15 of 19 PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

4 – Budget: Threat to the annual budget

for the airport. The consequence results in an

unexpected expense Airport Operating Budget

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to minimal budget impact

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-Minimal budget impact

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Moderate budget impact

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

- Serious budget impact

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Grave budget impact

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

CIP Project 

### Score Score

ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 16 of 19 4 – Budget: Threat to the annual budget for

the airport. The consequence results in an

unexpected expense SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to minimal budget impact

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-Minimal budget impact

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Moderate budget impact

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

- Serious budget impact

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Grave budget impact

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

Tenant Budget

SEVERITY

Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

-None to minimal budget impact

Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

-Minimal budget impact

Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Moderate budget impact

Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

- Serious budget impact

Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Grave budget impact

PROBABILITY

Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

-Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

-Conceivable, but highly unlikely

-Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

-Unlikely, but possible to occur

-Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years 

### Score

Score ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 17 of 19 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

-Regularly expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

-Continuously expected to occur in the system

-Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

### ScoreRA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 18 of 19 Part 2: Calculate Hazard Consequences by Severity and Probability



### a) Add up each score for hazard category by consequence, for Severity and average by dividing total score by

number of consequences to get an average score

b) Add up each score for hazard categor y by consequence, for Probability and average by dividing total score by

number of consequences to get an average score

c) Then add each category scores for Severity and divide by 4 and Probability and divide by 4

d) Plot final scores on Risk Matrix Chart next page



## Severity Scores

Scores # of

Consequences Scores

÷ Consequences

People

COOP

Environment

Budget

Total

Total divided by 4



## Probability Scores

Scores # of

Consequences Scores

÷ Consequences

People

COOP

Environment

Budget

Total

Total divided by 4RA 01

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 19 of 19 Part 3 Plot the Hazard Consequences by Severity and Probability



# Risk Matrix

Severity vs. Probability

Signed off by:

Full Name:

Si g nature

Date: Insignificant Major

Minor Catastrophic

Hazardous

Extremely

Improbable Extremeley

Remote Remote Probable Frequent 

### 1 3

2 5

4

Should never

occur Unlikely to

occur, do not

dismiss Should be

expected once May occur May occur

often



### I II III IV V

Unacceptable risk by threat

Reduced risk of casualties by threats

Acceptable mitigation of risk by threat