Copyright © 2015 by The Segal Group, Inc. All rights reserved. 

Analysis of Benefit Suspension Designs con

Iron Workers Local 17 Pension FundOctober 1, 2015Presented by: Megan K. Kelly, CEBS, Vice President and Benefits Consultant

Harold S. Cooper, FSA, MAAA, EA, Vice President and Actuary

5539729/01031

This document has been prepared by Segal Consulting for the benefit of the Board of 

Trustees of the Iron Workers Local 17 Pension Fund. This document should not be shared, copied, or quoted, in whole or in part, without the consent of Segal Consulting, except to the extent otherwise required by law. As with all issues involving the interpretation or application of laws, Trustees should rely on the advice of Fund Counsel in interpreting and applying the Multiemployer Pension Reform Act of 2014. The actuarial calculations were completed under the supervision of Henry Wong, ASA, MAAA, FCA, EA.

IW17PF_171
Significant volatility in financial markets during August and SepFund lost arbitration hearing regarding Stevens Painton withdrFund Office provided additional service data for non-retired pa

be used for benefit suspension analysis

Fund Office also provided census data for the May 1, 2015 act

valuation 

 We are still in the process of reconciling the 2015 valuation data. Th

presented in this report are still based on the 2014 valuation data w

additional service data used for this analysis.

Developments Since Last Presentation

IW17PF_172
The updated projections reflect the following:

 Based on the value of invested assets as of mid-September and the 

invested assets as of August 31, 2015, the estimated rate of return beginning May 1, 2015 and ending September 30, 2015 is -2.5%.

– Assuming a 6.5% annual effective interest assumption for the rem

months, the estimated rate of return for the Plan year ending Apri1.1% and is used for deterministic projections for that year and 6.

– Stochastic return for the year ending April 30, 2016 has also been 

reflect the estimated return through September 30, 2015.

 No future withdrawal liability payments from Stevens Painton. Estimated refund of approximately $500,000 to Stevens Painton du

year ending April 30, 2016 for the quarterly payments paid plus inte

 Refined suspension calculations for non-retired participants based o

additional service data provided by the Fund Office.

 Other actuarial assumptions are those used in previous projections 

described in the appendix.

Updated Projection Scenarios

IW17PF_173
 We have developed two suspension designs (M and N) that w

Plan to remain solvent over 50% of the time over a 50-year properiod. These are variations on the designs discussed at the Ameeting.

M. Reduce average accrual rate to $75 (item 1), reduce benefit

year from age 62 for current pensioners who retired on Servprior to age 62 (item 2B), adjust credited service to not more credited service per year (item 3), and reflect lump sum prev(item 5)

N. Reduce average accrual rate to $72 (item 1), no early retirem

reduction for current pensioners who retired on Service Pencredited service to not more than one credited service per yeand reflect lump sum previously paid (item 5)

Note: See the following slide for description of “items” 

Updated Projection Scenarios continued

IW17PF_174
1. Adjust benefits downward so that all average accrual rates a

than $x

2. Adjust early retirement benefits so that all benefits are calcu

the current early retirement factors (with further reduction pr

A. Adjust early retirement benefits so that all benefits are calculat

an average of actual early retirement factor used and current efactors (not actively being considered)

B. Adjust the unreduced portion of the early retirement benefits fo

pensioners who retired prior to age 62 (Service Pension)

3. Adjust credited service to not more than one year earned pe4. Adjust credited service so that those with < 1,900 hours, but 

1,200 hours, get full service (not actively being considered)

5. For each possible adjustment (1-4) above, reflect the fact th

benefit was already paid as a lump sum to certain pensioner

Potential Benefit Adjustments

IW17PF_175
Benefits for Sample Participants

Current 

Benefit

Scenario M ($75 Average Accrual Rate, 2.0%

ERF from 62 and CS 1/Year)

Scenario N ($72 A

Unchang

Amount Amount % of current Amount 

Retiree 1 $4,050 $2,223 55% $2,304 

Retiree 2 $1,163 $996 86% $956 

Retiree 3 $938 $745 79% $711 

Retiree 4 $4,165 $2,063 50% $2,168 

Retiree 5 $3,050 $2,288 75% $2,196 

Retiree 6 $624 $560 90% $560 

Retiree 7 $3,665 $2,359 64% $2,628 

Retiree 8 $4,025 $2,198 55% $2,430 

Retiree 9 $546 $546 100% $546 

Retiree 10 $4,813 $3,150 65% $3,024 

Retiree 11 $993 $698 70% $698 

Retiree 12 $1,105 $913 83% $871 

Retiree 13 $929 $672 72% $641 

Retiree 14 $1,048 $751 72% $721 

Retiree 15 $2,126 $1,380 65% $1,318 

Retiree 16 $858 $777 91% $777 

Retiree 17 $3,456 $2,131 62% $2,224 

Retiree 18 $1,343 $919 68% $876 

Retiree 19 $3,430 $2,206 64% $2,448 

Retiree 20 $3,815 $1,776 47% $1,972 

Retiree 21 $751 $726 97% $726 

Retiree 22 $1,302 $941 72% $904 

Retiree 23 $843 $718 85% $718 

Retiree 24 $337 $326 97% $326 

Retiree 25 $878 $731 83% $702 

Retiree 26 $696 $504 72% $484 

Retiree 27 $4,242 $2,605 61% $2,482 

Retiree 28 $553 $536 97% $536 

Retiree 29 $3,494 $2,539 73% $2,437 

IV $1,488 $1,181 79% $1,134 

Active $1,175 $1,175 100% $1,175 

Min. % 47% 

Max. % 100% 

Note: Under all scenarios, the benefit has been reduced by the partial lump sum if applicable. Benefits were calculated before any QDRO adjustment. 

Final benefits payable to the participant and alternate payee will be adjusted proportionally. 

IW17PF_176
 Deterministic modeling assumes a fixed asset return (6.5% u

presentation) each year and does not reflect the impact of ass

Stochastic modeling looks at a range of possible asset return 

over time and is based on capital market assumptions of expereturns/standard deviations for various asset classes and correbetween asset classes

 Creates thousands of scenarios (10,000 simulations in this analysis

return (based on current asset mix) over projection period

 Shows how the plan would perform in each of these scenarios Determines distribution of outcomes for Plan assets Provides both the best estimate value (50th percentile or median) an

other possible values, including probabilities of outcomes

Stochastic Analysis Overview

IW17PF_177
Stochastic Analysis Overview

$0

$20

$40$60$80

$100

$120

Sample

Projected Assets

90% of the 

simulations 

fall within the 

5th and 95th

percentiles 

95th Percentile (only 5% simulations are greater) 

5th Percentile

(only 5% of simulations are less)

Summari

a range:

 Best Case—

occur only 5% 95th percenti

 Worst Case

occur only 5% 5th percentile 

 Most Likely—

worse (50th plikely

The data is grouped into percentiles and summarized as a ran

5th - 95th 25th - 75th 95th 50th 5th

50th Percentile

(half of the 

simulations are 

above/below) 

75th Percentile

25th Percentile

50% of the 

simulations

fall within the 

25th and 75th

percentiles 

IW17PF_178
Stochastic ProjectionsExpected Investment Return Based on Current Allocations and Rogercasey’s Capital Market Assumptions

95th 7.0% 12.6% 12.2% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 10.5% 10.3% 10.1% 9.9% 9.7% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3

75th 7.0% 8.4% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.1% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6

50th 7.0% 5.3% 5.8% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.425th 7.0% 2.2% 3.2% 3.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2

5th 7.0% -2.1% -0.6% 0.3% 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4

Det. 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5

0%5%

10%15%

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 

Projected Cumulative Investment Return for Plan Years Ending April 30

90th Percentile Confidence Interval 50th Percentile Confidence Interval 95th Percentile 5th Percentile Med

IW17PF_179
Stochastic Projections Scenario M ($75 Average Accrual Rate; 2% ERF from 62, RedService)

The Stochastic projections show that there is a 47.8% probability that the Plan will become insolvent over the next 50 

95th 86 100 113 125 138 153 176 208 246 300 355 439 542 68

75th 86 84 84 82 79 78 78 79 85 93 107 126 154 1850th 86 74 67 59 50 40 31 23 15 10 7 7 10 125th 86 65 53 40 26 12 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -

5th 86 53 36 20 2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -

Det. 86 74 67 59 50 42 33 26 19 15 14 15 20 2

0

20406080

100120

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 205

Projected Value of Assets ($ millions) as of April 30

90th Percentile Confidence Interval 50th Percentile Confidence Interval 95th Percentile 5th Percentile M

IW17PF_180
Stochastic Projections Scenario N ($72 Average Accrual Rate; ERF Unchanged, RedService)

The Stochastic projections show that there is a 48.8% probability that the Plan will become insolvent over the next 50 

95th 86 99 112 123 135 150 172 203 240 292 346 430 531 66

75th 86 84 83 81 77 75 74 75 81 88 102 121 148 1850th 86 74 67 57 48 38 29 20 12 7 4 4 6 125th 86 64 52 39 25 10 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -

5th 86 53 35 18 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -

Det. 86 74 66 58 48 39 31 23 16 12 10 11 16 2

0

20406080

100120

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 205

Projected Value of Assets ($ millions) as of April 30

90th Percentile Confidence Interval 50th Percentile Confidence Interval 95th Percentile 5th Percentile M

IW17PF_181
 The projections shown are based on the May 1, 2014 actuarial valuation and the following 

assumptions:

 Value of Plan assets as of April 30, 2015 was $85.6 million (excluding withdrawal liabil

reported in the unaudited financial statement provided by the Fund Administrator for puZone Certification.

– Contribution income, benefit payments, and administrative expenses for the Plan ye

2015 used for the projections also match the amounts reported in that statement.

 Value of Plan assets as of September 30, 2015 was estimated to be $80.3 million base

invested assets as of mid-September as provided by the Investment Consultant and thinvested assets as of August 31, 2015 as provided by the Fund Administrator.

 Deterministic projections are based on 1.1% market return for Plan year ending April 3

thereafter.

 Stochastic projections of market returns are based on the Plan’s investment allocations 

Plan’s Investment Manager (45% U.S. Equities, 15% International Equities, 27% Fixed Equity Oriented Real State) and Segal Rogercasey’s capital market assumptions over horizon (described in slide 14).

 Stochastically modeled market return for the Plan year ending April 30, 2016 was adjus

estimated market return through September 30, 2015 of -2.5%.

 No future withdrawal liability payments and a refund of approximately $500,000 will be 

Painton during the Plan year ending April 30, 2016.

 Number of active participants in future years is based on 1.20 million hours (706 active

beginning May 1, 2015, 1.06 million hours (624 actives) for the Plan year beginning Ma

607 actives each year thereafter. Each active is assumed to work an average of 1,700 

AppendixAssumptions Used in Projections

IW17PF_182
 Benefits will be suspended based on the designs described in presentation or 110% of 

guaranteed amount, whichever is greater, taking into consideration the following:

– Any suspension in benefits occurs on November 1, 2016– No suspension for pensioners over age 80 as of the effective date and disabled retir

– Pro-rated suspension for pensioners between ages 75 and 80 as of the effective dat

– No suspension for current beneficiaries since service is unknown– Participants with unknown service were reduced without consideration of their PBGC 

amount as it cannot be determined

 Future benefit accrual rate remains at $50 per benefit credit.

 Contribution rate remains at $10.00 per hour.

 Mortality assumptions change to RP-2014 Blue Collar Mortality Tables with generation

Scale MP-2014 for non-disabled participants, RP-2014 Disabled Retire Mortality Tableprojection using Scale MP-2014 for participants disabled on and after May 1, 1997, and the two preceding mortality assumptions for participants disabled prior to May 1, 1997.

 Effective May 1, 2016, the following assumptions will change:

– Inactive vested participants will retire at age 60 if eligible. – 40% of future retirees will elect the 50% joint and survivor form of payment and 60% 

life annuity; this is based on the Plan’s experience during 2004–2014.

 Administrative expenses are assumed to be $575,000 for the Plan year beginning May 

for the Plan year beginning May 1, 2016, and increased by 3% per year thereafter.

Caveat regarding projections: Projections, by their nature, are not a guarantee of future results. The modeling projections are intended financial outcomes that are based on the information available to us at the time the modeling is undertaken and completed, and the agreed

methodologies described herein. Emerging results may differ significantly if the actual experience proves to be different from these assummethodologies are used. Actual experience may differ due to such variables as demographic experience, the economy, stock market perfenvironment.Caveat regarding legal interpretations: Segal does not practice law and, therefore, cannot and does not provide legal advice. Any statu2006, PRA 2010, and MPRA 2014, including related IRS regulations and guidance presented or reflected in the presentations are subject 

Fund Counsel. Design of benefit suspension is solely the responsibility of the Trustees. Any sample designs contained in this presentation 

Trustees and do not imply any recommendation by Segal.

AppendixAssumptions Used in Projections continued

IW17PF_183
AppendixSegal Rogercasey’s Capital Market Assumptions – Expected RVolatility, and Correlation Between Investment Categories

Investment Category Allocation Expected Return (15-Year Time Horizon) 

(Stand

U.S. Equities 45% 8.7% 

International Equities (Developed) 15% 9.4% 

Fixed Income 27% 3.6% 

Equity Oriented Real Estate 13% 6.5% 

Correlation Between Investment CategoriesInvestment Category U.S. Equities

International 

Equities

(Developed)

Fixed Income Equity Oriented Real Estate

U.S. Equities 1.00International Equities(Developed)

0.88 1.00

Fixed Income 0.06 0.14 1.00Equity Oriented Real Estate 0.26 0.19 -0.25 1.00

IW17PF_184
101 North Wacker Drive Suite 500 Chicago, IL 60606-1724 

T 312.984.8500 www.segalco.com 

Benefits, Compensation and HR Consulting. Member of The Segal Group. Offices throughout the United States and Canada

MEMORANDUM

VIA E-MAIL 

To: Board of Trustees 

Iron Workers Local 17 Pension Fund 

From: Harold S. Cooper, FSA, MAAA, EA 

Vice President and Actuary 

Date: October 14, 2015 

Re: Updated Suspension Projections Based on September 30th Asset Values 

Based on the asset values and income statement as of 9/30/15 provided by the Fund Office and 

Investment Manager, the estimated rate of return through 9/30/15 is -5.2%. Assuming a 6.5% return for 

the remaining seven months, the estimated rate of return for the PYE 4/30/2016 is -1.7%. This is 2.8% 

lower than shown in the October 1st presentation. As of the time that this memo, the S&P 500 Index is up 

over 4% from September 30th and up over 1% from September 15th , the date used in the prior projections. 

Total hours of contributions during the first five months of the year are estimated to be 572,000 hours, 

which exceeds the assumed 500,000 hours (1.2 million hours for the full year) by 14.4%. 

The updated stochastic projections indicate that either (a) $70 average accrual rate with no ERF or (b) $73 

average accrual rate with a 2% ERF would satisfy the solvency requirement. These amounts are both $2 

lower than in the October 1st presentation. 

Below is a chart with some additional statistics: 

$70 Avg. Accrual Rate, No ERF $73 Avg. Accrual Rate, 2% ERF 

Probability of insolvency 47.89% 47.20%

Minimum value of 50th percentile 

of projected assets (stochastic) 

$5.8M $8.3M

Minimum value of projected 

assets (deterministic, assuming 

-1.7% return for PYE 4/30/16

and 6.5% thereafter)

$12.3M $14.8M

IW17PF_185
October 14, 2015 

Page 2 

The assumptions used in these projections are the same as those used in our October 1 presentation, 

except for the updated asset return described above and a December 1, 2016 effective date for the 

suspension. 

cc: Ed Fox 

 Teresa Pofok 

Megan K. Kelly 

 Henry Wong 

5544596v1/01031.004 

IW17PF_186
Copyright © 2015 by The Segal Group, Inc. All rights reserved. 

Analysis of Benefit Suspension Designs con

Iron Workers Local 17 Pension FundOctober 20, 2015Presented by: Megan K. Kelly, CEBS, Vice President and Benefits Consultant

Harold S. Cooper, FSA, MAAA, EA, Vice President and Actuary

5545277v1/01031

This document has been prepared by Segal Consulting for the benefit of the Board of 

Trustees of the Iron Workers Local 17 Pension Fund. This document should not be shared, copied, or quoted, in whole or in part, without the consent of Segal Consulting, except to the extent otherwise required by law. As with all issues involving the interpretation or application of laws, Trustees should rely on the advice of Fund Counsel in interpreting and applying the Multiemployer Pension Reform Act of 2014. The actuarial calculations were completed under the supervision of Henry Wong, ASA, MAAA, FCA, EA.

IW17PF_187
 Received updated asset values for two funds on 10/16/2015 fr

Investment Consultant.

 The estimated rate of return through 9/30/2015 is -4.9% (compared 

in 10/14 memo).

 The estimated rate of return for the Plan year ending 4/30/2016 is -

(compared to -1.7% used in 10/14 memo). This estimate assumes 6the remaining seven months of the year.

Trustees agreed on final suspension design, described below:

 Reduce average accrual rate to $72 (item 1), reduce benefits by 1.5

from age 62 for current pensioners who retired on Service Pension (item 2B), adjust credited service to not more than one credit per yeand reflect lump sum previously paid (item 5).

 Suspension will be based on participants’ credited service as of 4/3 Participants who have commenced benefits prior to December 1, 20

and get paid for not more than 39.5 hours per month without having 

be fully suspended.

 Will apply for suspension by 12/11/2015Note: See the following slide for description of “items” 

Updates Since October 1 Presentation and October 14 Memorandum

IW17PF_188
1. Adjust benefits downward so that all average accrual rates a

than $x

2. Adjust early retirement benefits so that all benefits are calcu

the current early retirement factors (with further reduction pr

A. Adjust early retirement benefits so that all benefits are calculat

an average of actual early retirement factor used and current efactors (not actively being considered)

B. Adjust the unreduced portion of the early retirement benefits fo

pensioners who retired prior to age 62 (Service Pension)

3. Adjust credited service to not more than one year earned an4. Adjust credited service so that those with < 1,900 hours, but 

1,200 hours, get full service (not actively being considered)

5. For each possible adjustment (1-4) above, reflect the fact th

benefit was already paid as a lump sum to certain pensioner

Potential Benefit Adjustments

IW17PF_189
Benefits for Sample Participants

$72 Average Accrual Rate, 1.5% Early Retirement from 62 for Service Pension and Credited Service Limit

Current 

Amount

Age at

Retirement

Year of 

Retirement

Total

Service

Reduced 

Service

ERF

(1.5% from 62)

Reduced

Amount

Retiree 1 $4,050 59 2001 45.00 38.25 94.9% $2,163 Retiree 2 $1,163 55 2004 21.25 20.75 64.0% $956 Retiree 3 $938 59 2007 15.00 15.00 86.0% $711 Retiree 4 $4,165 58 2005 46.50 36.50 94.1% $2,014 Retiree 5 $3,050 65 2014 35.50 30.50 100.0% $2,196 Retiree 6 $624 55 2006 19.50 15.00 66.5% $560 Retiree 7 $3,665 55 1999 42.75 36.50 89.6% $2,355 Retiree 8 $4,025 55 2002 40.25 33.75 90.1% $2,190 Retiree 9 $546 61 2009 17.75 17.75 95.5% $546 

Retiree 10 $4,813 63 2011 52.00 42.00 100.0% $3,024 Retiree 11 $993 55 2007 21.50 17.75 64.0% $698 Retiree 12 $1,105 57 2008 19.25 18.75 74.0% $871 Retiree 13 $929 61 2003 10.50 10.50 98.0% $641 Retiree 14 $1,048 56 2008 19.75 18.00 67.5% $721 Retiree 15 $2,126 65 2007 26.25 25.00 100.0% $1,318 Retiree 16 $858 65 2008 23.50 23.00 100.0% $777 Retiree 17 $3,456 58 2001 40.00 35.75 94.0% $2,090 Retiree 18 $1,343 65 2008 17.00 16.25 100.0% $876 Retiree 19 $3,430 55 1999 40.00 34.00 89.9% $2,200 Retiree 20 $3,815 56 2007 44.75 34.25 90.6% $1,759 Retiree 21 $751 55 2001 19.25 18.75 71.0% $726 Retiree 22 $1,302 58 2012 27.00 22.25 56.4% $904 Retiree 23 $843 55 2008 21.25 18.00 66.5% $718 Retiree 24 $337 55 1999 19.50 19.00 64.0% $326 Retiree 25 $878 65 2011 9.75 9.75 100.0% $702 Retiree 26 $696 55 2009 11.00 10.50 64.0% $484 Retiree 27 $4,242 62 2007 48.75 41.00 100.0% $2,482 Retiree 28 $553 63 2008 13.25 13.25 100.0% $536 Retiree 29 $3,494 62 2009 42.50 39.00 100.0% $2,437 

IV $1,488 65 2019 15.75 15.75 100.0% $1,134 

Active $1,175 65 2018 16.75 16.00 100.0% $1,075 

Min. % 

Max. % 

Note: Under all scenarios, the benefit has been reduced by the partial lump sum if applicable. Benefits were calculated before any QDRO adjustment. 

Final benefits payable to the participant and alternate payee will be adjusted proportionally. 

IW17PF_190
 Deterministic modeling assumes a fixed asset return (6.5% u

presentation) each year and does not reflect the impact of ass

Stochastic modeling looks at a range of possible asset return 

over time and is based on capital market assumptions of expereturns/standard deviations for various asset classes and correbetween asset classes

 Creates thousands of scenarios (10,000 simulations in this analysis

return (based on current asset mix) over projection period

 Shows how the plan would perform in each of these scenarios Determines distribution of outcomes for Plan assets Provides both the best estimate value (50th percentile or median) an

other possible values, including probabilities of outcomes

Stochastic Analysis Overview

IW17PF_191
Stochastic Analysis Overview

$0

$20

$40$60$80

$100

$120

Sample

Projected Assets

90% of the 

simulations 

fall within the 

5th and 95th

percentiles 

95th Percentile (only 5% simulations are greater) 

5th Percentile

(only 5% of simulations are less)

Summari

a range:

 Best Case—

occur only 5% 95th percenti

 Worst Case

occur only 5% 5th percentile 

 Most Likely—

worse (50th plikely

The data is grouped into percentiles and summarized as a ran

5th - 95th 25th - 75th 95th 50th 5th

50th Percentile

(half of the 

simulations are 

above/below) 

75th Percentile

25th Percentile

50% of the 

simulations

fall within the 

25th and 75th

percentiles 

IW17PF_192
Stochastic ProjectionsExpected Investment Return Based on Current Allocations and Rogercasey’s Capital Market Assumptions

95th 7.0% 11.9% 11.8% 11.3% 10.9% 10.6% 10.4% 10.2% 10.0% 9.8% 9.6% 9.5% 9.4% 9.3

75th 7.0% 7.7% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5

50th 7.0% 4.7% 5.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.325th 7.0% 1.6% 2.8% 3.5% 3.9% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1

5th 7.0% -2.7% -0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 1.3% 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3

Det. 7.0% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5

0%5%

10%15%

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 

Projected Cumulative Investment Return for Plan Years Ending April 30

90th Percentile Confidence Interval 50th Percentile Confidence Interval 95th Percentile 5th Percentile Medi

IW17PF_193
Stochastic Projections $72 Average Accrual Rate; 1.5% ERF from 62, Reduce Credit

The stochastic projections show that there is a 45.9% probability that the Plan will become insolvent over the next 50 

95th 86 97 110 121 134 150 172 204 242 296 351 436 537 67

75th 86 81 82 80 77 76 77 78 85 95 110 129 159 1950th 86 72 65 57 48 40 31 24 18 14 12 14 18 225th 86 63 51 39 26 13 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -

5th 86 51 35 19 3 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -

Det. 86 72 65 57 49 41 34 27 22 19 19 22 29 4

0

20406080

100120

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 

Projected Value of Assets ($ millions) as of April 30

90th Percentile Confidence Interval 50th Percentile Confidence Interval 95th Percentile 5th Percentile M

IW17PF_194
Stochastic Projections $72 Average Accrual Rate; 1.5% ERF from 62, Reduce Credit5% Test

This scenario passes the 5% test on a stochastic basis as the 50th percentile shows insolv

95th 86 96 108 119 129 143 163 191 227 274 324 401 498 61

75th 86 81 80 77 73 71 69 69 73 79 90 107 131 1650th 86 71 64 55 45 35 25 16 8 1 -- -- -- -25th 86 62 50 37 23 8 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -

5th 86 51 34 17 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -

Det. 86 71 64 55 46 37 27 19 12 6 3 3 5 1

0

20406080

100120

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 

Projected Value of Assets ($ millions) as of April 30

90th Percentile Confidence Interval 50th Percentile Confidence Interval 95th Percentile 5th Percentile M

IW17PF_195
 The projections shown are based on the May 1, 2014 actuarial valuation and the following 

assumptions:

 Value of Plan assets as of April 30, 2015 was $85.6 million (excluding withdrawal liabil

reported in the unaudited financial statement provided by the Fund Administrator for puZone Certification.

– Contribution income, benefit payments, and administrative expenses for the Plan ye

2015 used for the projections also match the amounts reported in that statement.

 Value of Plan assets as of September 30, 2015 was estimated to be $79.0 million base

provided by the Investment Manager and Fund Administrator.

 Deterministic projections are based on -1.3% market return for Plan year ending April 3

thereafter.

 Stochastic projections of market returns are based on the Plan’s investment allocations 

Plan’s Investment Manager (45% U.S. Equities, 15% International Equities, 27% Fixed Equity Oriented Real State) and Segal Rogercasey’s capital market assumptions over horizon (described in slide 12).

 Stochastically modeled market return for the Plan year ending April 30, 2016 was adjus

estimated market return through September 30, 2015 of -1.3%.

 No future withdrawal liability payments and a refund of approximately $500,000 will be 

Painton between October 1, 2015 and April 30, 2016.

 Number of active participants in future years is based on 1.20 million hours (706 active

beginning May 1, 2015, 1.06 million hours (624 actives) for the Plan year beginning Ma

607 actives each year thereafter. Each active is assumed to work an average of 1,700 

 Contribution rate remains at $10.00 per hour.

AppendixAssumptions Used in Projections

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 Benefits will be suspended based on the designs described in presentation or 110% of 

guaranteed amount, whichever is greater, taking into consideration the following:

– Any suspension in benefits occurs on December 1, 2016.

» Reduced amount is calculated based on participants’ credited service as of April 3

– No suspension for pensioners over age 80 as of the effective date and disabled retir

– Pro-rated suspension for pensioners between ages 75 and 80 as of the effective dat

– No suspension for current beneficiaries since service is unknown.– Participants with unknown service were reduced without consideration of their PBGC 

amount as it cannot be determined.

– Future benefit accrual rate on and after May 1, 2016 remains at $50 per benefit cred

 Effective May 1, 2015, mortality assumptions will change to RP-2014 Blue Collar Morta

generational projection using Scale MP-2014 for non-disabled participants, RP-2014 DMortality Tables with generational projection using Scale MP-2014 for participants disaMay 1, 1997, and a 50/50 blend of the two preceding mortality assumptions for participto May 1, 1997.

 Effective May 1, 2016, the following assumptions will change:

– Inactive vested participants will retire at age 60 if eligible. – 40% of future retirees will elect the 50% joint and survivor form of payment and 60% 

life annuity; this is based on the Plan’s experience during 2004–2014.

 Administrative expenses are assumed to be $575,000 for the Plan year beginning May 

for the Plan year beginning May 1, 2016, and increased by 3% per year thereafter.

Caveat regarding projections: Projections, by their nature, are not a guarantee of future results. The modeling projections are intended financial outcomes that are based on the information available to us at the time the modeling is undertaken and completed, and the agreed

methodologies described herein. Emerging results may differ significantly if the actual experience proves to be different from these assummethodologies are used. Actual experience may differ due to such variables as demographic experience, the economy, stock market perfenvironment.Caveat regarding legal interpretations: Segal does not practice law and, therefore, cannot and does not provide legal advice. Any statu2006, PRA 2010, and MPRA 2014, including related IRS regulations and guidance presented or reflected in the presentations are subject 

Fund Counsel. Design of benefit suspension is solely the responsibility of the Trustees. Any sample designs contained in this presentation 

Trustees and do not imply any recommendation by Segal.

AppendixAssumptions Used in Projections continued

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AppendixSegal Rogercasey’s Capital Market Assumptions – Expected RVolatility, and Correlation Between Investment Categories

Investment Category Allocation Expected Return (15-Year Time Horizon) 

(Stand

U.S. Equities 45% 8.7% 

International Equities (Developed) 15% 9.4% 

Fixed Income 27% 3.6% 

Equity Oriented Real Estate 13% 6.5% 

Correlation Between Investment CategoriesInvestment Category U.S. Equities

International 

Equities

(Developed)

Fixed Income Equity Oriented Real Estate

U.S. Equities 1.00International Equities(Developed)

0.88 1.00

Fixed Income 0.06 0.14 1.00Equity Oriented Real Estate 0.26 0.19 -0.25 1.00

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