**AEO2011 - Low oil prices**

Pkg_v2.6.0; Prog_v1.20.1

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $5,900 $5,100 $4,900 $6,800 $7,600 $30,300 Energy Security $500 $440 $430 $610 $690 $2,670 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$340 -$300 -$290 -$280 -$290 -$1,500 Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $4,720 $4,000 $3,700 $5,710 $6,100 $24,230 3% (avg SCC) $5,620 $4,800 $4,400 $6,710 $7,300 **$28,830** 2.5% (avg SCC) $6,320 $5,400 $5,000 $7,610 $8,300 $32,630 3% (95th percentile) $7,820 $6,700 $6,300 $9,410$10,300 $40,530

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $4,400 $3,700 $3,400 $4,600 $4,900 $21,000 Energy Security $370 $320 $300 $400 $440 $1,830 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$250 -$220 -$200 -$190 -$180 -$1,040 Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $3,170 $2,540 $2,140 $3,370 $3,220 $14,440 3% (avg SCC) $4,070 $3,340 $2,840 $4,370 $4,420 **$19,040** 2.5% (avg SCC) $4,770 $3,940 $3,440 $5,270 $5,420 $22,840 3% (95th percentile) $6,270 $5,240 $4,740 $7,070 $7,420 $30,740 **Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)** 

**Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)** **AEO2011 - Reference case**

Pkg_v2.6.0; Prog_v1.20.1

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $9,300 $8,300 $8,100 $11,500$12,900 $50,100 Energy Security $500 $440 $430 $610 $690 $2,670 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$340 -$300 -$290 -$280 -$290 -$1,500 Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $8,120 $7,200 $6,900 $10,410$11,400 $44,030 3% (avg SCC) $9,020 $8,000 $7,600 $11,410$12,600 **$48,630** 2.5% (avg SCC) $9,720 $8,600 $8,200 $12,310$13,600 $52,430 3% (95th percentile) $11,220 $9,900 $9,500 $14,110$15,600 $60,330

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $6,900 $5,900 $5,600 $7,600 $8,300 $34,300 Energy Security $370 $320 $300 $400 $440 $1,830 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$250 -$220 -$200 -$190 -$180 -$1,040 Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $5,670 $4,740 $4,340 $6,370 $6,620 $27,740 3% (avg SCC) $6,570 $5,540 $5,040 $7,370 $7,820 **$32,340** 2.5% (avg SCC) $7,270 $6,140 $5,640 $8,270 $8,820 $36,140 3% (95th percentile) $8,770 $7,440 $6,940 $10,070$10,820 $44,040 **Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)** 

**Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)** **AEO2011 - High oil prices**

Pkg_v2.6.0; Prog_v1.20.1

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $13,500$12,000$11,800$16,700 $18,800 $72,800 Energy Security $500 $440 $430 $610 $690 $2,670 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$340 -$300 -$290 -$280 -$290 -$1,500 Refueling $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $12,320$10,900$10,600$15,610 $17,300 $66,730 3% (avg SCC) $13,220$11,700$11,300$16,610 $18,500 **$71,330** 2.5% (avg SCC) $13,920$12,300$11,900$17,510 $19,500 $75,130 3% (95th percentile) $15,420$13,600$13,200$19,310 $21,500 $83,030

Monetized Values 2014MY2015MY2016MY2017MY2018MY Sum Costs Truck Program Costs -$1,600 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,800 -$2,300 -$8,800 Benefits Pre-tax Fuel Savings $10,100 $8,600 $8,100$11,100 $12,000 $49,900 Energy Security $370 $320 $300 $400 $440 $1,830 Accidents, Congestion, Noise -$250 -$220 -$200 -$190 -$180 -$1,040 Refueling $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250 Reduced CO2 emissions 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,800 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,200 $2,500 $9,600 3% (95th percentile) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,500 Net Benefits 5% (avg SCC) $8,870 $7,440 $6,840 $9,870$10,320 $43,340 3% (avg SCC) $9,770 $8,240 $7,540$10,870 $11,520 **$47,940** 2.5% (avg SCC) $10,470 $8,840 $8,140$11,770 $12,520 $51,740 3% (95th percentile) $11,970$10,140 $9,440$13,570 $14,520 $59,640 **Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 3% discount rate)** 

**Estim ated Societal Im** **pacts of the Proposed Heavy-duty Program (Millions of 2009 dollars; 7% discount rate)**