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Action Plan: National Program 212 – Climate Change, Soils and Emissions

Research

(January 6, 2009)

Goal: National Program (NP) 212, Climate Change, Soils and Emissions Research 

supports research to improve the quality of atmosphere and soil resources that both affect 

and are affected by agriculture, to understand the effects of climate change on agriculture, 

and to prepare agriculture for adaptation to climate change.

Agricultural systems function within the soil-atmosphere continuum. Mass and energy

exchange processes occur within this continuum and agriculture can significantly affect

the processes. Emissions from agriculture to the atmosphere affect air quality and 

increase atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. While GHG emissions 

result from the natural cycling of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), these emissions also 

contribute to climate change. A changing climate impacts agriculture, range and pasture 

systems, and soils through alterations in precipitation and temperature patterns, and

increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. The impacts of climate 

change create challenges to agriculture and its soil resources, but also offer new 

opportunities for agricultural production and enhancement of soil quality.

Soils are a crucial boundary resource between agriculture and the atmosphere. Soils in 

agricultural systems must be managed to meet rising global demands for food, feed, fiber, 

fuel and ecosystem services while maintaining soil productivity and limiting undesirable 

interactions between soils and the atmosphere.

The variability of the atmosphere, soils, and plants, and the complexity of interactions

among these systems require collaborations by ARS scientists conducting NP212 

research. Formal and informal Cross Location Research (CLR) projects including the 

Greenhouse gas Reduction through Agricultural Carbon Enhancement network 

(GRACEnet), the Renewable Energy Assessment Project (REAP), and field campaigns

focused on air quality are successful examples. Synthesis and integration of information,

including sources outside NP212, by CLR projects increases the utility and impact of 

ARS research. Efficient assimilation of data from NP212 projects into existing and 

future collaborative data bases will enhance synthesis and integration analyses and 

expand research opportunities.

Relationship of This National Program to the ARS Strategic Plan: Outputs of NP 

212 research support the “Actionable Strategies” associated with the performance 

measures shown below from the ARS Strategic Plan for FY2006 – 2011, Strategic Goal 

2.0 Enhance the Competitiveness and Sustainability of Rural and Farm Economies;

Strategic Goal 4.0 Enhance Protection and Safety of the Nation’s Agriculture and Food 

Supply; and Strategic Goal 6.0 Protect and Enhance the Nation’s Natural Resource Base 

and Environment.

Performance Measure 2.1: Enhance the competiveness and sustainability of rural 

and farm economies. Objective 2.1: Expand domestic market opportunities. 
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Target: New products and strategies will be developed to mitigate environmental 

concerns, such as the use of carbon sequestration to offset greenhouse gas emissions.

Performance Measure 4.2: Reduce the number, severity and distribution of 

agricultural pest and disease outbreaks. Objective 4.2.1: Provide scientific 

information to protect animals, humans, and property from the negative effects of 

pests, infectious disease, and other disease-causing entities. Target: Research that 

has significant impact on the scientific community, leading to development of 

technologies for the integration of prevention and treatment strategies to manage top 

priority endemic and exotic threats to livestock, humans, and property.

Performance Measure 6.2: Improve soil and air quality to enhance crop 

production and environmental quality. Objective 6.2.1: Develop practices and 

technologies to enhance soil resources and reduce emissions of particulate matter 

and gases from crop production lands, agricultural processing operations, and animal 

production systems. Target: Agricultural practices and technologies will be 

developed and used by customers and partners to enhance soil and air natural 

resources.

Relationship of this National Program to other related National Programs: Given 

the global impact of climate change and the fact that air and soil resources are of 

universal importance, research conducted under NP212 is relevant to all other ARS 

National Programs. Other ARS programs that more intimately complement NP212 

research include:

NP 108 Food Safety (animal and plant products)

NP206 Manure and Byproduct Utilization

NP207 Integrated Agricultural Systems

NP211 Water Availability and Watershed Management

NP215 Pasture, Forages and Rangeland Systems

NP216 Agricultural System Competitiveness and Sustainability

NP303 Plant Diseases

NP305 Crop Production

NP306 Quality and Utilization of Agricultural Products

NP307 Bioenergy and Energy Alternatives

Atmospheric emissions from agriculture are under increased scrutiny due to potential 

negative environmental effects and threats to human and animal welfare. Emissions

contribute to tensions between agriculture and residential communities from visibility 

impairment (haze) and nuisance odors. Major classes of emissions include particulate 

matter (PM), volatile inorganic compounds (primarily ammonia and hydrogen sulfide), 

volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and those from pesticides. Often these emissions 

exist as mixtures and, thus, adjustments to production practices for abatement may 

decrease the release of one material while changing the emission character or magnitude 

of other materials.

Component 1. Enable Improvements of Air Quality via Management and 

Mitigation of Emissions from Agricultural Operations
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Problem Statement 1A: Understand, predict, and manage emissions from 

agricultural systems

Pesticides used in agricultural production systems may contain significant quantities of 

volatile and semi-volatile organic chemicals, or compounds that become volatile. 

Fumigant products applied into soil can quickly evaporate and require measures to reduce 

losses to the atmosphere. Pesticide residues remaining in the soil after application are 

also susceptible to offsite transport by wind via windblown fugitive dust particles. Once 

in the air, emitted compounds and PM can react with other air components and be 

transported to, and deposited on, non-target species in neighboring ecosystems. Limited 

knowledge exists concerning the effects of weather and climate, soil conditions, 

application methods, cropping systems, crop species, and management practices on 

emissions, fate, transport, and deposition of agrochemicals and PM from agricultural 

sources. ARS will conduct studies to gain a more comprehensive understanding of these

processes, develop and evaluate measurement techniques and protocols, develop and 

evaluate models describing and predicting emission, fate, transport, and deposition, and 

develop emission abatement and mitigation technologies and practices.

Research Needs

A better understanding is needed of meteorological factors, soil properties, and 

agricultural practices influencing the emission, fate, and transport of PM, VOCs, 

pesticides, and ammonia. Current instrumentation requires modification and 

evaluation for better PM, pesticide, and VOC measurements. Physically-based 

models of land management practices are needed to quantify the susceptibility of soil 

to transport by wind. Experimental protocols and approaches are needed to 

characterize PM, VOCs, pesticides, and ammonia emissions, and to identify their 

sources. Characterization of the temporal and spatial variability of these emissions is 

required to determine their effects on local and regional ecosystems and on regional 

air quality. Currently, there are only a few management practices which can be used 

to curtail emissions and more are needed. Mitigation strategies to decrease the effects 

of cropping system emissions on non-target organisms and ecosystems require

evaluation. VOC and pesticide assessment and prediction tools, as well as PM 

models for cropping systems, need improvement. Models to predict the interactions 

of cropping system and urban emissions and resulting effects on air quality are 

urgently needed.

Anticipated Products

• Knowledge of fundamental processes and mechanisms controlling emissions, 

transport, and deposition of PM, VOCs, pesticides, and ammonia from

agricultural systems.

• Scientifically-sound protocols for measuring emissions appropriate for various 

agricultural systems.

• Standardized datasets with transport parameters and emission rates for emission 

and transport model improvement, evaluation, and validation.

• Abatement and mitigation technologies, and best management practices (BMPs) 

documented in guidelines (factsheet/whitepaper) for controlling emissions.
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• Improved models to simulate emissions that can help with decision support.

• ARS Air Quality Emissions Research Workgroup.

Potential Benefits

• Improved air quality resulting in an improved environment and human health.

• Regulations based on best available science for emissions of reactive VOCs, 

pesticides, PM, and PM precursors.

• More economically and environmentally sustainable agricultural systems.

• Science-based understanding of agriculture’s impact on residential communities.

Problem Statement 1B: Understand, predict, and manage emissions from animal 

operations

Ammonia, VOCs, hydrogen sulfide, and PM are released from animal operations. Once 

in the air, emitted compounds and PM can interact with other air components, in poorlyunderstood processes, and be transported to and deposited on other ecosystems. Some of 

these compounds also produce nuisance odors which impact surrounding communities. 

Difficulties exist in regulating these materials due to limitations of existing measurement 

methodologies and a lack of knowledge on the effects of weather and climate, soil 

conditions, and management practices on emissions, fate, transport, and deposition. ARS 

will conduct studies to gain a more comprehensive understanding of emission, fate, 

transport, and deposition processes. The increased understanding of these processes will 

be used to develop and evaluate measurement techniques and protocols, develop and 

evaluate models describing and predicting emission, fate, transport, and deposition, and, 

develop emission abatement and mitigation technologies.

Research Needs

A better understanding of factors influencing the emission, fate, and transport of PM, 

VOCs, hydrogen sulfide, and ammonia is needed. Instrumentation to adequately 

measure volatile compounds requires modification and evaluation. Experimental 

protocols and approaches to characterize PM, VOCs, hydrogen sulfide, and ammonia 

and to identify their sources must be developed. The temporal and spatial variability 

of these emissions and their effects on local and regional ecosystems need to be 

understood. The amounts and processes of wind-driven emissions from animal 

facilities and grazing lands need further investigation. The interactions of animal 

operations and urban emissions and the resultant effects on air quality require 

examination. The effects of changes in animal production systems to help meet 

bioenergy production demands on air quality need to be examined. Mitigation 

strategies to decrease animal operation emissions must be developed and evaluated. 

Assessment and predictive tools for VOCs, hydrogen sulfide, and ammonia, as well 

as PM models for animal operations require evaluation.

Anticipated Products

• Knowledge of fundamental processes and mechanisms controlling PM, VOCs, 

hydrogen sulfide, and ammonia from animal operations including lifecycle 

analysis of emissions.

• Scientifically-sound protocols for measuring emissions from animal operations.
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• Standardized datasets that include transport parameters and emission rates for 

model development, evaluation, and validation.

• Abatement and mitigation technologies, guidelines and best management 

practices (BMPs) for controlling emissions.

• Improved model simulations and develop decision support tools to predict 

emissions.

• ARS Air Quality Emissions Research Workgroup.

Potential Benefits

• Improved air quality.

• Regulations based on best available science for emissions of materials from 

agricultural sources.

• More harmonious coexistence of agricultural and urban communities.

Problem Statement 1C: Understand, predict, and manage emissions from post 

harvest processing systems

Agricultural post harvest processing operations are encountering difficulties complying 

with current air pollution regulations for PM and VOCs. Scientifically sound emissions 

data are needed when new air quality standards are enacted and for existing or new 

processing technologies. The current methods for determining emission levels for many 

post harvest operations are subject to high error rates associated with sampling 

technologies, methodologies and predictive modeling tools inappropriate for agricultural 

settings. Estimates of the effectiveness of abatement technologies may also suffer from 

the same errors. ARS will conduct studies to gain a more comprehensive understanding

of emission processes, develop and evaluate measurement techniques and protocols, 

develop and evaluate models describing and predicting emissions, and develop emission 

abatement and mitigation technologies.

Research Needs

A better understanding of factors influencing the emission of PM and VOCs from 

post harvest processing systems is needed. Experimental protocols and approaches to 

characterize total PM emissions and VOCs from silage, cotton processing, nut 

hulling, feed mills, and other operations are lacking. Mitigation strategies to decrease 

VOC and PM emissions require development and evaluation. Assessment and 

predictive tools including models for VOC and PM emissions require evaluation and 

validation.

Anticipated Products

• Fundamental baseline knowledge of processes and mechanisms controlling VOC 

and PM emissions from post harvest processing systems.

• Scientifically-sound protocols for measuring emissions from post harvest systems 

and standardized data sets.

• Abatement and mitigation technologies and practices (BMPs).

• Improved models and new decision support tools to predict emissions and manage 

processes for reducing emissions.

• ARS Air Quality Emissions Research Workgroup.
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Potential Benefits

• Improved air quality.

• Regulations based on best available science for emissions of PM precursors and 

VOCs.

• More sustainable post harvest processing systems.

Component 1 Resources

Twenty (20) ARS CRIS projects coded to National Program 212 address the research 

problems identified under Component 1. ARS locations and lead scientists who are 

assigned to these projects include:

Ames, IA Prueger, John; Kerr, Brian

Beltsville, MD Hapeman, Cathleen; Gish, Timothy; Shelton, Daniel

Bowling Green, KY Sistani, Karamat

Bushland, TX Cole, Noel

Fayetteville, AR Moore, Philip

Kimberly, ID Leytem, April

Lubbock, TX Buser, Michael; Zobeck, Ted

Manhattan, KS Wagner, Larry

Mesilla Park, NM Hughs, Sidney

Riverside, CA Yates, Scott

Pullman, WA Sharratt, Brenton

Tifton, GA Potter, Thomas

University Park, PA Rotz, Alan

West Lafayette Flanagan, Dennis

Wooster, OH Derksen, Richard; Zhu, Heping

Agriculture GHG emissions to the atmosphere are among the documented anthropogenic 

factors driving climate change. Land management practices may be altered to reduce 

GHG emissions. Agriculture also provides an opportunity to sequester C in soils, thus 

offsetting GHG emissions and offering a partial solution to slowing the forces of climate 

change.

Component 2. Develop Knowledge and Technologies for Reducing Atmospheric 

Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Through Management of Agricultural Emissions 

and Carbon Sequestration

Problem Statement 2A: Understand and measure emissions of greenhouse gases 

from agricultural sources

The human influence on global climate change is primarily from activities that increase 

atmospheric concentrations of GHG, especially CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide 

(N2O). Agriculture contributes about 20% of the world’s global radiative forcing from 

CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions. Agriculture produces 50% of the CH4 and 70% of the 

N2O attributed to human-induced emission of these gases. However, changes of

management, including minimizing or eliminating tillage, adding organic matter (e.g., 

cover crops and manure), and improving nitrogen management for enhanced efficiency 

can result in agriculture serving as a net sink for GHG. ARS will conduct research 
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focused on developing soil C and GHG measurement methods. ARS will also provide 

information on the soil C status and GHG emission of current agricultural practices as 

well as the effects of new alternative practices on net GHG emission and soil C 

sequestration, through the activities of the ARS coordinated cross location effort, 

GRACEnet (Greenhouse gas Reduction through Agricultural Carbon 

Enhancement network).

Research Needs

Research to develop precise information on how agricultural management practices 

impact soil C sequestration and the amount of GHG emitted in different regions of the 

country is critically needed. Standardized, portable and inexpensive methods for 

quantifying soil C and GHG emissions are needed to better measure spatial and 

temporal variability. The required research needs to generate and summarize current

and emerging information, be region-specific within the US, inventory current and 

future agricultural soil C sequestration and emission data, and increase development 

and application of predictive mathematical models. Such research is a prerequisite 

for the widespread adoption of C-credit trading in the US and elsewhere.

Anticipated Products

• A national database of current GHG flux and C storage that can serve as a 

baseline for verifying C credits.

• Standardized protocols and improved methods for making soil C and GHG 

emissions measurements.

• Synthesis of net agricultural GHG emissions data on regional and national levels.

• Regional and national guidelines of best management practices for minimizing 

GHG emissions from and maximizing C sequestration on agricultural lands.

• Improved computer models to assess management effects on soil C and GHG 

emissions.

• Summary documents for use by action agencies and policy makers.

Potential Benefits

• Assessment and improvement of soil and agricultural management will provide 

information to producers, scientists, action agencies, C traders, policy-makers, 

and the general public that can be used to quantify the impact of agriculture on 

GHG emission and soil C storage.

• Timely assimilation of data into standardized data bases using good data 

management technologies will enhance research opportunities by ARS and the 

broader scientific community.

Problem Statement 2B: Develop process level understanding of GHG emissions

The processes of GHG emission and C sequestration in soils are complex. Process 

controls include climatic variables, soil type, pH, and crop management. The role and 

interpretation of CH4 and N2O emissions and soil C sequestration must be considered 

within the context of soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil nitrogen (SN) dynamics. To do 

so often requires data from analytically derived pools and fluxes of soil organic matter 

(SOM) and understandings of soil biological, physical, and chemical processes. Soils 
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include numerous C pools such as microbial biomass and products, light fraction (LF), 

particulate organic matter (POM), and hydrolysable and non-hydrolysable SOC 

components. These pools interact with silt and clay, cations, N content, and aggregates to 

control SOM dynamics. Physical protection, biochemical complexity, and mineral 

surface-cation interactions all play a role in stabilizing SOM components. Nitrogen, a 

primary component of N2O, is closely tied to C as a SOM constituent as well as in 

microbial biomass and soil enzymes. Its mineralization influences soil fertility, 

ecosystem functioning, environmental pollution, and climate change. ARS will fill gaps 

in our understanding of emission processes and formalize this knowledge within process 

models that can be used to predict emissions as a function of soil, plant, and atmosphere 

states.

Research Needs

The mechanisms whereby gaseous forms of C and N move within and between the 

soil and the atmosphere, transform chemically, and are transported are poorly 

understood. An understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of GHG 

emissions is needed. A formalized representation of process and mechanistic controls 

over GHG emissions (e.g., interactions among climate/soil/crop/fertilizer 

management) is fundamental to a mature understanding of GHG emissions. 

Understanding of process and mechanistic controls over soil C storage is a critical 

element. Understanding C, N, and water cycling relationships with GHG emissions 

and environmental quality is needed to develop management strategies to control 

GHG emissions while meeting production and environmental stewardship goals. 

Combinations of biogeochemical and hydrology/transport models are required for a 

systems-level emissions prediction capability. Models must be developed that can be 

scaled up for use at landscape and regional levels.

Anticipated Products

• Improved models of GHG emission processes.

• Scientific basis for developing and standardizing methods to capture dynamics.

• Basic information regarding principles and processes of C, N, and water cycles.

• Synthesis of net GHG emissions data to allow development of strategies and 

practices to reduce net GHG emissions and provide inputs for decision support 

tools.

• Better understanding of processes as the basis for improved mitigation practices.

Potential Benefits

• Improved mitigation practices.

• Enhance role for agriculture in mitigating national and global GHG emissions.

• User evaluation of economic and environmental trade-offs among mitigation 

practices.

• More scientifically based regulations of GHG emissions.

• Improved technologies for scientifically sound carbon credit trading.

• Management practices that result in improved agricultural C sequestration, 

efficient use and recycling of applied nutrients (especially N), and minimal GHG 

emissions.
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Problem Statement 2C: Develop improved technologies and agricultural systems to 

manage greenhouse gas emissions

High uncertainty exists in system-specific net GHG emissions and CO2 equivalent 

footprint analysis for conventional and alternative agro-ecosystems. Inadequate 

understanding of process controls over net GHG emissions hampers the development of 

emission management strategies. Lack of succinct and targeted information for 

customers regarding management impacts on GHG emissions and mitigation strategies 

impairs adoption of effective GHG emission controls. ARS will develop new 

management practices to reduce net GHG emission and increase soil C sequestration. 

Management strategies that balance production goals, environmental stewardship 

objectives, GHG emission reductions, and C sequestration will be developed.

Research Needs 

Information is lacking on how specific management practices can be altered in 

different regions of the country to increase soil C sequestration, coincidently mitigate 

GHG emissions and meet acceptable conservation and production objectives.

Anticipated Products

• Strategies and recommendations for regionally specific practices to reduce net 

GHG emissions. 

• Decision support tools for developing management strategies for balancing 

production goals, environmental stewardship objectives, GHG emission 

reductions, and C sequestration.

Potential Benefits

• Strategies and recommendations for mitigating net GHG emission and increased 

soil C sequestration via soil and agricultural management will provide 

information to producers, scientists, action agencies, C traders, and policy-makers 

that facilitate mitigation of GHG emissions.

• Agriculture will contribute to a decrease in atmospheric GHG concentrations.

Component 2 Resources

Twenty-six (26) ARS CRIS projects coded to National Program 212 address the 

research problems identified under Component 2. ARS locations and lead scientists 

who are assigned to these projects include:

Akron, CO Vigil, Merle

Ames, IA Parkin, Tim; Sauer, Thomas; Hatfield, Jerry

Athens, GA Franzluebbers, Alan

Auburn, AL Prior, Stephen

Beltsville, MD McCarty, Gregory; Bunce, Jim

Brookings, SD Osborne, Shannon

Bushland, TX Howell, Terry

Florence, SC Busscher, Warren

Ft. Collins, CO Follett, Ron; Del Grosso, Steve; Halvorson, Ardell; Morgan, 

Jack
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Kimberly, ID Lentz, Rodrick

Lincoln, NE Wienhold, Brian

Mandan, ND Liebig, Mark

Morris, MN Johnson, Jane; Papiernik, Sharon

Pendleton, OR Wuest, Stewart

Pullman, WA Smith, Jeff

St. Paul, MN Baker, John

Temple, TX Polley, Wayne

Tifton, GA Potter, Thomas

University Park, PA Rotz, Alan

West Lafayette, IN Stott, Diane

Mechanisms for adapting to climate change are critical for continued agricultural 

production and stewardship of natural resources. An understanding of the impacts of 

climate change on natural and managed ecosystems provides insights needed to formulate 

strategies for addressing vulnerabilities and exploiting potentially beneficial aspects of 

climate change. Mechanisms for identifying and detecting indicators of impacts are key 

to formulating management responses. Adaptive responses to climate change must be 

evaluated for impacts on ecosystem function and potential feedbacks on the climate 

system and subsequent consequences for sustainability and reinforcement, or offset of, 

climate change mitigation strategies.

Component 3. Enable Agriculture to Adapt to Climate Change

Problem Statement 3A: Understand the responses of agricultural systems to 

anticipated climate change.

Changing precipitation and temperature patterns and increasing atmospheric CO2 are 

impacting agroecosystems at national, regional, and local scales. Current ambient ozone 

(O3) levels are phytotoxic to sensitive crops and increases in O3 are projected under future 

climate change scenarios. Enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentrations may increase 

growth and yield with most, but not all, crops and there may be detrimental impacts on 

crop and forage quality. The interactions of rising temperature, excess and deficit soil 

moisture stresses, ambient O3, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and changing 

length of growing season on yield quantity and quality, plant phenology, productivity, 

rangeland species composition, and biogeochemical cycling are largely unknown. The 

impacts of climate change are expected to vary geographically and temporally. Improved 

knowledge of the physiological and biochemical mechanisms governing crop response to 

elevated CO2 and O3 concentrations as well as improved process understanding of basic 

soil-plant-water-atmosphere interactions under changing climate will enable better risk 

management. ARS will conduct research to better understand agroecosystem responses 

to changes of temperature and precipitation patterns, atmospheric CO2 and O3 levels, and 

their interactions.

Research Needs

Understanding the impacts of interacting factors of global change on production 

quantity and quality of managed and natural ecosystems has emerged as a priority 

research need. Improved models are needed to more accurately predict how climate 
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change will alter water availability, water use efficiency, nutrient requirements, and 

pools and fluxes of C, N, and other potentially limiting elements for plant 

productivity. The interactive effects of soil moisture, soil fertility, temperature, and 

O3 on C3 and C4 crop responses to elevated CO2 must be understood. Improved 

knowledge of the spatial and temporal dynamics of soil-plant-atmosphere interactions 

is needed. Knowledge is lacking on how shifts in rangeland plant species 

composition affect pools and fluxes of C and N to impact plant biomass productivity. 

It is also crucial to understand how landscape soil variation interacts with phenology 

and species change to mediate CO2/climate impacts on productivity. How grazing 

will interact with climate change to further influence species composition and 

productivity is largely unknown.

Anticipated Products

• Understanding of how climate change affects crop and forage quality.

• Understanding of the interacting impacts of elevated CO2, O3, precipitation, and 

temperature on agricultural systems including nitrogen requirements, yield and 

quality responses.

• Data on impacts of elevated CO2 on plant stomatal responses to soil water deficits 

and air vapor pressure deficits.

• Models of the mechanisms underlying improved water use efficiency at elevated 

CO2 and its effects on yield.

• Management systems, including crop selection, to improve water use efficiency.

• Improved methods to measure and model interactions in soil-plant-atmosphere 

systems.

Potential Benefits

• Continued production of food, fiber, fuel and ecosystem services will be enabled.

• Understanding how climate affects the content of phytochemicals important for 

human health in various crops will enable society to better address human 

nutrition needs.

• Information needed to adapt crops to new environmental conditions.

• Knowledge of global climate change impacts on crop water and nutrient 

requirements and on fundamental plant processes at the whole plant, cellular, 

biochemical, and metabolic levels that regulate response to climate change will 

lead to management strategies for adapting crops to climate change through 

targeted manipulation of key biological processes.

• Physiological and biochemical markers to aid in the identification and 

development of cultivars adapted to climate change.

• Enhanced ability to define limitations of plant response to climate change.

• Enhanced accuracy of economic and environmental risk assessments associated 

with various climate change scenarios.

• Decreased variability and increased security of agricultural production.

Problem Statement 3B: Understand the impact of anticipated climate change on 

endemic and exotic pests, weeds and diseases.

Endemic and exotic pests, weeds and diseases are becoming an increasing concern for 

agriculture, with widely seen consequences for productivity and ecosystem health. 
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Although the negative influence of these factors is increasingly recognized by scientists 

and policy makers, the role of climate change (specifically anticipated changes of water, 

temperature and CO2) on their vigor and proliferation are not well understood. ARS will 

conduct basic and applied research on the interacting effects of climate change on 

endemic and exotic pests, weeds and diseases. Resistance to management actions 

designed to control these types of species will be addressed.

Research Needs

Assessment of trophic interaction changes under global change, including interactions 

of pests and pathogens, grazers and weeds, and measurement and modeling of the 

impact of these trophic interactions on agricultural production are needed. The ability 

to predict changes in the locations and severity of invasive agricultural pests, weeds, 

and diseases with current and projected changes in CO2, temperature, and water 

availability are needed. Quantification of the degree to which warming, changes of

precipitation, and CO2 enrichment increase the susceptibility of agro-systems to 

invasion; understanding how invasions are exacerbated by interactions of the 

availability of natural enemies with CO2, temperature, and precipitation; 

understanding how CO2 enrichment and warming interact with disturbances to 

influence plant invasion and native ecosystem recovery; understanding how nutrient 

availability affects invasive species growth and native rangeland susceptibility. Other 

needed predictions include latitudinal range shifts and likely impacts of invasive 

species as a result of warming, changes in precipitation, and CO2 enrichment. 

Changes in management that will mitigate and control future infestations associated 

with expected range shifts, including herbicide management and impact of increased 

CO2 and temperature on plant resistance to invasive pests and diseases, need to be 

identified.

Anticipated Products

• Risk assessment tools for predicting the effects of anticipated global change on 

weeds, pests, and diseases in different agricultural systems.

• Characterization of likely impacts of climate and CO2 on the establishment, 

success and spread of invasive weeds, pests, and diseases including anticipated 

production losses for U.S. agricultural systems.

• Assessment of climate change and CO2 increases on current agricultural 

management techniques (chemical, biological and physical) for endemic and 

invasive weeds, pests, and diseases, and establishment of new IPM guidelines.

• New conceptual knowledge, databases, and parameters for input to mechanistic 

models of C and nutrient cycling, plant biomass productivity, species phenology, 

and species changes.

• Guidelines on impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change on plant 

biomass productivity and rates of C cycling and storage in rangeland systems.

• Best management practices for sustainable rangeland production and maintenance 

of ancillary ecosystem services under future climate change.

• Statistical and spatial models of future invasive species ranges.

• State/transition models to predict invasions in rangelands under future CO2 and 

climate scenarios.
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• Delineation of identity and attributes of likely future invasive species.

• Guidelines for management practices to mitigate future invasions and control of 

existing invasive populations.

Potential Benefits

• Continued production of food, feed, fiber, fuel and ecosystem services will be 

enabled.

• Information needed to guide new crop selection and pest management strategies.

• Enhanced ability to define limitations of plant response to climate change.

• Increased security for agricultural production via decreased climate-driven 

variability in yield.

• Better decision-making due to improved understanding of the likely consequences 

of climate change impacts on managed and natural ecosystems.

• Improved models of C and nutrient cycling and forage quantity under future 

climate scenarios in non-crop systems as a basis for decision-support tools.

• Development of decision support tools for land managers describing likely 

spatially explicit forage quantity and sustainability of land use and management 

practices in non-crop systems.

• Improved function of C trading markets based on better knowledge of soil C pool 

sizes and fluxes in rangelands and its association with forage quantity and 

livestock carrying capacity under future climate scenarios.

• Improved ability of managers to design grazing systems that are resilient to 

climate change.

• Improved capacity to predict and control weed problems in rangelands under 

future CO2 /climate scenarios.

• Improved ability to restore disturbed ecosystems under future CO2 /climate 

scenarios.

• Advanced warning of likely range shifts of problematic invaders.

Problem Statement 3C: Evaluate germplasm and identify genetic variation that will 

respond positively to climate change.

Current varieties may not adequately adapt to stress or take advantage of potential 

opportunities associated with global climate change. Molecular markers and cultivars 

that will generate higher yield with improved tolerance to changing factors of climate are 

needed to secure a stable supply of food, feed, fiber, and fuel. ARS will conduct research 

to identify genetic resources that can adapt to and, where possible, benefit from climate 

change.

Research Needs

A better understanding of the genomic and genetic basis for the variability of crop 

responses to climate change is required. Optimal germplasm for enhanced 

performance under elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 and O3, increased 

temperatures, and precipitation excesses and deficits need to be identified. There is a

need to evaluate and utilize wild relatives and ancestral germplasm of crop species as 

unique sources of genes to adapt crops to all aspects of climate change.
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Anticipated Products

• Germplasm that is adapted to factors of climate change including improved 

tolerance to O3, water use efficiency.

• Crop cultivars that maximize productivity at elevated CO2 and/or elevated 

temperature.

• Molecular markers for crop CO2 responsiveness, O3 tolerance, and temperature 

limitations.

• Identify and characterize key genes regulating effects of temperature on 

phenology and reproductive growth factors.

• Identification of crop ancestors exhibiting variation in response to O3 and CO2.

Anticipated Benefits

• Maximizing crop yields and food production in the future would be the ultimate 

potential benefit.

• Germplasm designed for future environments that will generate sustainable, high 

crop yields with improved economic value for the American farmer.

• A secure and stable supply of both small and large grain crops for export, 

domestic consumption, industrial uses, and animal feed in the context of potential 

climatic uncertainty.

• Improved mechanistic understanding of plant responses to elevated CO2, elevated 

O3, and elevated temperature.

• Identification of molecular markers or genes involved in crop responses to 

elements of climate change would allow for biotechnological development of 

improved cultivars.

• Genetic material for plant breeders to develop new soybean and wheat cultivars 

with sustained or enhanced performance under future climate scenarios of 

elevated CO2 and O3.

• Identify specific lines of red rice that could provide phenotypic traits suitable for 

adaptation to projected changes in temperature, drought or CO2 in cultivated rice 

lines as a means of maintaining food security.

Problem Statement 3D: Evaluate and adapt agronomic management to climate 

change.

Climate change presents threats to agricultural production systems as well as 

opportunities to improve and expand production. Adjustments to production system 

inputs, tillage, crop species, crop rotations, and harvest strategies, as well as altered use 

and assessment of natural resources are anticipated responses to both threats and 

opportunities of climate change. ARS will conduct research to increase the resilience of 

agronomic systems to climate change and to enable exploitation of opportunities that may 

arise.

Research Needs

Evaluate and develop sustainable agricultural management strategies to maximize 

crop production and minimize detrimental environmental impacts due to climate 

change. Develop management practices that maximize crop productivity and C 

sequestration under global climate change scenarios. Determine whether current 
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management practices for weed, pest, and disease control as well as nutrient inputs 

need to be adapted under various global climate change scenarios.

Anticipated Products

• Management practices that increase the resilience of cropping systems to 

temperature and precipitation extremes.

• Information that quantifies the interactions among agronomic systems, 

management practices, and climate variation that can be used to assess future food 

security.

• Improved plant growth and agronomic models that can be used to evaluate 

potential management scenarios across a wide range of cropping systems, soils, 

and climate.

• Information on the capacity of cropping systems to sequester C in response to 

CO2 and knowledge of underlying mechanism for residue decomposition.

• Suitable management strategies and methods to control invasive agronomic weeds 

with climate change.

• Improved understanding of weed community shifts under climate change 

scenarios.

Anticipated Benefits

• Continued production of food, feed, fiber, fuel, and ecosystem services will be 

enabled.

• Management practices that increase crop resilience to climate extremes and 

decrease risk of crop failure due to changing climate.

• Cropping systems that will have increased productivity under climatic stresses.

• Information for producers to evaluate potential management options to cope with 

climate stress in agronomic systems.

• Better information on C sequestration in different agronomic systems under 

climate change.

• Improved weed management strategies under climate change.

Problem Statement 3E: Identify and develop scalable methodologies for assessing 

potential impacts and adaptation of agriculture to climate change.

A strengthened capacity is needed to predict potential impacts of climate change on 

agricultural production and on natural resources, including water and nutrients. Better 

predictions are sought by growers, processors, agricultural industries, and local, state, and 

federal agencies. Improved prediction at different geographic scales will allow 

stakeholders to more effectively assess how climate change will impact agricultural 

production and the environment, and identify specific opportunities or vulnerabilities. 

ARS will conduct research to improve crop growth and ecophysiological models, develop 

technologies for merging data from different spatial and temporal scales, and structure 

research outcomes for use by decision makers at local to global scales.

Research Needs

Evaluate and extend the capacity and robustness of crop models and ecophysiological 

models for higher CO2 and altered temperature, water and nutrient availability. 
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Develop and evaluate methods for integrating data across spatial and temporal scales, 

from the leaf level to the global level. Develop local, regional, national, and global

datasets to assess impacts of global change.

Anticipated Products

• Models of crop responses to climate change and evaluation protocols for those 

models. 

• Algorithm for moving information across spatial and temporal scales.

• Methods to handle complex biophysical interactions across scales.

• Meta-analysis of major crop responses to climate change.

• National database for characterization of crop or system responses to climate 

change.

• Recommendations for best management practices for adapting agriculture to 

global change.

• High resolution local database for detailed case studies characterizing crop or 

system responses to climate change.

Potential Benefits

• Continued production of food, feed, fiber, fuel and ecosystem services will be 

enabled.

• Improved models will strengthen our capacity to predict the potential impacts of 

climate change on agricultural production and on natural resources.

• Increase reliability of assessments of potential impacts on agricultural production.

• Improved strategic decisions relating to future agricultural production and 

resource availability by growers, processors, agro-industry, and local, state, and 

federal agencies.

• Greater utilization of information that can assist decision makers in understanding 

the implications of climate change on agricultural production.

• Reliable extrapolation of information that can assist commodity groups in 

planning for changes in agricultural systems.

• Assurance that underlying data for climate-change related decisions are of high 

quality, and within various constraints, that the data are comparable in terms of 

underlying assumptions.

• Developing and distributing base datasets for global change studies will facilitate 

impact studies and stakeholder confidence in the outputs, thus improving the 

quality of decisions in a broad range of fields relating to impacts of climate 

change on agriculture.

Component 3 Resources

Sixteen (16) ARS CRIS projects that are coded to National Program 212 address the 

research problems identified under Component 3. ARS locations and lead scientists 

who are assigned to these projects include:

Ames, IA Hatfield, Jerry

Auburn, AL Prior, Stephen; Raper, Randy

Beltsville, MD Bunce, James; McCarty, Greg; Britz, Steve

Cheyenne, WY Morgan, Jack
17

Gainesville, FL Allen, L. Hartwell

Lincoln, NE Wienhold, Brian

Mandan, ND Hanson, Jon

Maricopa, AZ Kimball, Bruce

Pullman, WA Smith, Jeff

Raleigh, NC Burkey, Kent

Temple, TX Polley, Wayne

University Park, PA Rotz, Alan

Urbana, IL Ort, Don

Soil productivity must be enhanced to meet increasing global food, feed, fiber, and fuel 

demands. Soil degradation through erosion and decreased physical (e.g., structure, 

compaction, infiltration), chemical (e.g., acidification, salinization, nutrient depletion), 

and biological (e.g., biodiversity, nutrient cycling, soil organic matter) properties and 

processes must be mitigated to ensure critical goods and services provided by soil 

resources are maintained.

Component 4. Maintaining and Enhancing Soil Resources

Problem Statement 4A: Controlling soil erosion

Soil erosion continues to be the principal threat to the long-term sustainability of U.S. 

agriculture. Current estimates indicate that over 2 billion tons of soil per year is lost from 

U.S. cropland because of rain- and wind-induced erosion. On a worldwide basis, water-, 

wind-, tillage-, and irrigation-induced erosion are major causes of soil degradation and 

environmental damage including air quality and sedimentation of lakes and reservoirs. 

Soil erosion control is essential to sustain agricultural production systems because 

erosion affects soil properties progressively over time, generally diminishing soil quality 

and the resistance of agricultural systems to stresses induced by increased climate 

variability. ARS will conduct research to understand the states and processes of erosion 

and develop technologies and management practices that can be used to reduce soil 

erosion.

Research Needs

There is a critical need for improved understanding of soil erosion, sediment 

movement, and depositional processes as a function of the interactions between 

water, wind, and gravity and intensity determined by landscape structure, soil 

characteristics, management practices, and vegetative cover. Models to predict soil 

erosion processes are needed. Development of technologies and management 

practices to limit soil erosion that can be adopted by land managers are needed.

Anticipated Products

• Databases and decision support tools for sediment loads, yields, and off-site 

impacts considering fractional sediment transport and deposition, geomorphic 

aspects of stream evolution, and reservoir/pond sedimentation.

• Guidelines for reducing the risk of dam breaching and subsequent failure due to 

concentrated flow.
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• Multi-scale models to predict wind, water, and tillage erosion, and downstream 

impacts of sediment movement on agricultural landscapes.

• Best management practices and design tools for in-field erosion control, gully and 

ephemeral channel erosion prevention, riparian corridor stabilization, and 

sediment retention structures.

Potential Benefits

• Improved soil management systems and more reliable national modeling of 

conservation efforts based on improved assessments of how climate, topography, 

and management affect soil erodibility and threshold velocities.

• Reduced sediment losses from fields and streams to lakes and rivers due to 

adoption of improved conservation practices.

Problem Statement 4B: Preventing soil degradation

Soil degradation is initiated by the processes of soil erosion, loss of vegetative cover, and 

oxidation of soil organic matter. These processes result in impaired soil physical, 

chemical, and biological properties and processes, eventually leading to reduced soil 

productivity and damaged ecosystems. Poor land management decisions contribute to 

soil degradation through loss of soil organic matter, soil compaction, accelerated soil 

acidification, and buildup of salts, toxic elements, and nutrients. Widespread use of 

pesticides contributes to soil degradation. Excessive removal of crop residues for 

bioenergy could have long-term economic, environmental, and sustainability costs. ARS 

will conduct research to develop strategies for preventing soil degradation and 

remediating degraded soils that balance increasing production demands with 

sustainability requirements.

Research Needs:

Guidelines documenting the amount of crop residue that must remain on the soil to 

prevent long-term degradation for a variety of yield levels and production practices 

are needed. Strategies, such as guidelines for use of biochar and other soil 

amendments, are needed for remediating degraded soils, especially soils that have 

been adversely impacted by erosion, compaction, trace element contamination, 

salinity, or other natural or human-induced phenomena. An improved understanding 

of pesticide fate and behavior in various soil environments is integral to reducing soil 

degradation. Simulation models describing pesticide movement and behavior for use 

in decision support tools are needed.

Anticipated Products

• Cross-location Renewable Energy Assessment Project (REAP) team to coordinate 

sustainability issues regard feedstock production for biofuel and bio-products.

• Guidelines for management practices supporting sustainable harvest of crop 

residue.

• Algorithm(s) estimating the amount of crop residue that can be sustainably 

harvested.

• Decision support tools and guidelines defining the economic trade-off between 

residue harvest and retention to sequester soil C.
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• Management practices and guidelines to correct soil compaction and poor soil 

structure/aggregate stability.

• Assessments of biochar production and use as a soil amendment.

• Remediation techniques and amendments to remove or sequester trace elements, 

excess nutrients, or other contaminants in soil.

• Techniques and guidelines to map, monitor, and remediate saline soils and to 

assess their quality spatially and temporally.

Potential Benefits (Outcomes)

• Biofuel and bio-product production systems that significantly contribute to US 

energy independence, reduce GHG emissions, and support rural communities 

without degrading soil resources.

• Soils that are more productive and less likely to contaminate water and air 

resources.

• Effective and economically feasible management practices that prevent soil 

degradation and help remediate degraded soils.

Problem Statement 4C: Improving soil management and the efficient use of soil 

water

Impaired soils have reduced precipitation use-efficiency and increased risk of excessive 

runoff and erosion that lead to off-site pollution of water resources. Soil properties and 

processes affecting infiltration and water retention include surface sealing, soil structure, 

compaction, crop residue management, soil and water chemistry, salinity, and various 

aspects of soil biology. Innovative solutions to conserve soil resources through improved 

management strategies are needed to meet agricultural and societal demands for greater 

production and environmental quality protection. Efficient water storage and use in both 

dryland and irrigated systems are needed. Innovative and cost-effective soil management 

strategies, products, and technologies that directly or indirectly improve soil structure and 

infiltration are also needed to more efficiently use precipitation and reduce offsite 

impacts in urban, suburban, and rural areas. New technologies, assessment tools, and 

models are required to evaluate and predict soil properties, water availability, and effects 

of conservation practices at the landscape scale over time. ARS will fill gaps in 

knowledge of the effects of agricultural management practices on soil water status and 

processes and develop new management practices that promote desired soil 

characteristics.

Research Needs:

Improved techniques to quantify and understand soil water processes (e.g., 

infiltration, evaporation, and landscape soil-water redistribution) and the soil 

properties that influence them are required. Simulation models are needed to predict 

landscape infiltration, evaporation, and soil water redistribution. Improved soil 

management practices (e.g., conservation tillage and crop management practices) are 

also needed. Tools to help assess the effectiveness of conservation practices on soil, 

air, and water resources and crop productivity [e.g. the NRCS Soil Conditioning 

Index (SCI) and the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF)] are required. 

Decision aids and strategies (e.g., management zones for site specific or precision 
20

agriculture) that are robust, reliable, and useful for guiding management decisions are 

needed.

Anticipated Products

• Guidelines and decision aids to improve management practices for better 

infiltration, water retention, aeration, and root proliferation for agriculture and 

urban land use applications.

• Tools and more sensitive instrumentation to measure management effects on 

temporal soil and hydraulic properties at field and landscape scales.

• Fact sheets, management guides, and synthesis publications that focus on 

conservation tillage technologies for cold, wet soils; irrigated soils; semi-arid 

dryland soils; and temperate non-irrigated soils.

• Fact sheets, management guides, and synthesis publications on conservation 

cropping systems (including cover crops and inter-cropping) and practices for 

integrated crop-livestock systems.

• Assessment tools to quantify soil quality benefits from conservation practices.

• Tools to delineate management zones for profitable adaptation of conservation 

practices and systems within fields.

Potential Benefits 

• Improved productivity and efficient use of available water as well as reduced 

runoff, erosion, surface and subsurface water contamination. 

• Measurable increase in implementation of conservation practices including 

improved crop sequences, rotations, and integrated crop-livestock systems

• Assessments of the effectiveness of various conservation practices.

Problem Statement 4D: Improving Nutrient Cycling and Use

Soil biological processes, application of animal manures, and use of inorganic fertilizer 

are the primary methods for meeting plant needs for essential nutrients. Basic and 

applied microbiological research focused on soil organisms and communities, as well as 

improved nutrient management practices, are needed to improve nutrient cycling and use 

efficiency. Inefficient nutrient use results in an economic loss to producers and creates 

an environmental risk to the public. Fertilizer use-efficiency is commonly less than 50% 

in many agricultural systems and application of excessive amounts of fertilizer and 

manure contributes to agriculture being the largest non-point source of pollution to 

surface and groundwater. Complex biological communities (including both beneficial 

and pathogenic organisms) reside and proliferate in the soil. Interactions among soil 

macro- and micro-organisms, plant roots, and root exudates influence many soil and 

ecosystem processes including nutrient cycling, soil structure and aggregation, and 

productivity. A small portion of the soil-borne community can also be plant and human 

pathogens. New technologies for assessment and control of microbial processes, 

improved understanding of nutrient fate and transport, and an improved understanding of 

how genetically modified organisms affect the soil and rhizosphere microflora are 

needed. ARS will address knowledge gaps of the states and processes involving soil 

organisms and communities affecting nutrient cycling and use. New strategies will be 

developed using this knowledge to improve nutrient management. 
21

Research Needs

An improved understanding of nutrient fate and transport is needed upon which 

science-based guidelines for improved nutrient cycling and use can be developed. A 

variety of decision support tools for improved nutrient management are required. 

Basic and applied research must be conducted to understand the functional 

relationships among: (1) soil ecosystems and microbial communities; (2) biological, 

chemical, and physical processes; and (3) nutrient fate and transport in soil. Tools 

and technologies to better assess soil ecological status and rhizosphere ecology with 

regard to belowground food webs, soil stability, and nutrient cycling are required.

Anticipated Products

• Decision support tools (e.g., indices and models) for improved nutrient 

management.

• Synthesis publications and guidelines for management of nitrogen, phosphorus, 

and other nutrients.

• Site-specific best management practices for increased nutrient use efficiency 

within irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems.

• Improved methods and equipment for assessing soil biological and ecological 

communities.

• Synthesis papers and fact sheets quantifying relationships among above- and 

below-ground ecosystem processes and responses to soil and crop management 

decisions.

• An increased understanding of the functional relationships among soil microbial 

communities and the resultant soil physical and chemical characteristics.

Potential Benefits

• Decreased N and P loss to surface and groundwater resources.

• More efficient nutrient cycling and use within agricultural systems.

• Improved plant productivity and ecosystem function and health.

Component 4 Resources

Twenty (20) ARS CRIS projects that are coded to National Program 212 address the 

research problems identified under Component 4. ARS locations and lead scientists 

who are assigned to these projects include:

Akron, CO Vigil, Merle

Ames, IA Karlen, Douglas; Laird, David

Beaver, WV Neill, Katherine

Beltsville, MD Buyer, Jeffrey; Gish, Timothy

Brookings, SD Osborne, Shannon

Columbia, MO Suddeth, Kenneth

Florence, SC Busscher, Warren

Ft. Collins, CO Halvorson, Ardell

Lincoln, NE Varvel, Gary

Lubbock, TX Zobeck, Teddy

Mandan, ND Liebig, Mark
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Manhattan, KS Wagner, Larry

Morris, MN Papiernik, Sharon

Pullman, WA Smith, Jeffrey

Stoneville, MS Zablotowicz, Robert

Temple, TX Potter, Kenneth

Urbana, IL Sims, Gerald

Wyndmoor, PA Douds, David

Program Data Management

There is increasing demand for quality scientific data from research addressed by NP212. 

This demand has fostered the creation of an ARS Natural Resources and Sustainable 

Agriculture Systems data base. Efficient assimilation of data into this data base using 

good data management technologies will enhance research opportunities by ARS 

scientists and the scientific community at-large.

Investment will be made to maximize the benefits that data bases and new information 

technologies bring to ARS research. Specifically, scientists addressing NP212 research 

needs will look for ways to:

• Improve the quality of available data and associated data technologies.

• Develop efficient practices for finding, obtaining, standardizing, and formatting 

research data.

• Increase visibility of research and collaborative opportunities by making research data 

available to other research efforts.

A data management team will be formed to provide leadership and guidelines to 

accomplish these goals. The team, co-led by Office of National Programs and a location 

scientist, will consist of scientists and information technology experts. Expected 

outcomes are program data management guidelines, increased staff proficiency in the use 

of relevant technologies, implementation of the research data system framework, and 

clear processes for ensuring ongoing success in using data management technology to 

increase scientific productivity. These activities will build upon the GRACEnet, REAP, 

the Conservation Effectiveness Assessment Project (CEAP), and Sustaining the Earth’s 

Watersheds-Agricultural Research Data System (STEWARDS) data management efforts.

Synthesis and Integration of Research Findings

The complexity of air quality, climate change, and soils scientific issues creates a need to 

develop broad insight and conclusions from scientific literature and databases. An 

immediate demand by the scientific community, policymakers, and the public for 

integrated synthesis of scientific information justifies particular attention to this as an 

emphasis of NP212. Thus, ARS lead scientists contributing to NP212 will participate in 

synthesis and integration of information from all sources, including those outside their 

programs.