Exhibit I

Actuarial Assumptions and Methods Used for Projections

Investment Returns

• Deterministic Projections

o For certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5:

Time Period Assumed Rate of Return

5/1/2019 – 4/30/2028 6.40%

5/1/2028+ 7.50%

o For all other projections

Time Period Assumed Rate of Return

5/1/2019 – 4/30/2029 6.50%1

5/1/2029 – 4/30/2043 7.50%

5/1/2043 – 4/30/2048 7.30%

5/1/2048 – 4/30/2053 7.20%

5/1/2053+ 7.50%

• Stochastic Projections

Stochastic projections were performed using 2,000 trials. For each year in each trial,

correlated sample rates of return were produced by asset class and then blended

according to the assumed investment percentages applicable to the particular year.

The underlying asset class distributions were assumed to be log-normal with

characteristics following the composite capital market assumptions shown in Exhibit 15

of Survey of Capital Market Assumptions: 2019 Edition, published by Horizon Actuarial

Services, LLC.

Assets during the “initial period” ending April 30, 2020 were not assumed to vary

stochastically. Thereafter, short-term capital market assumptions were assumed to apply

through April 30, 2029 and long-term to apply thereafter.

The arithmetic and geometric means, standard deviations, and correlations of expected

asset class returns are shown below (for the asset classes in which plan assets are

invested):

1 For the first 2 months of the 5/1/2019-4/30/2020 plan year, actual investment income was used. For the remaining 

10 months of such plan year (the “initial period”), a return equal to 10/12ths of 6.50% was assumed.

CPTF-DV000181
Expected Returns

PYE 2021-2028 PYE 2029+ Standard

Asset Class Arith Geom Arith Geom Deviation

US Large Cap 7.26% 6.03% 8.34% 7.05% 16.17%

US Small/Mid Cap 8.45% 6.55% 9.52% 7.54% 20.15%

Non-US Developed 8.40% 6.83% 9.30% 7.70% 18.23%

Non-US Emerging 10.62% 7.77% 11.67% 8.67% 24.73%

US Fixed - Core 3.74% 3.58% 4.46% 4.30% 5.47%

US Fixed - High Yield 5.60% 5.10% 6.38% 5.82% 10.06%

Non-US Fixed - Developed 2.80% 2.56% 3.81% 3.43% 7.61%

Non-US Fixed - Emerging 6.19% 5.57% 6.76% 6.06% 11.31%

Real Estate 6.95% 5.79% 7.94% 6.82% 15.03%

Hedge Funds 5.63% 5.27% 6.61% 6.18% 8.38%

Private Equity 11.34% 8.97% 12.82% 10.10% 22.05%

Correlation Matrix

Asset Class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

1 US Large Cap 1.00

2 US Small/Mid Cap 0.86 1.00

3 Non-US Developed 0.83 0.74 1.00

4 Non-US Emerging 0.72 0.67 0.78 1.00

5 US Fixed - Core 0.15 0.07 0.17 0.17 1.00

6 US Fixed - High Yield 0.60 0.58 0.61 0.61 0.41 1.00

7 Non-US Fixed - Developed 0.20 0.12 0.32 0.29 0.53 0.23 1.00

8 Non-US Fixed - Emerging 0.51 0.47 0.54 0.64 0.45 0.59 0.42 1.00

9 Real Estate 0.48 0.49 0.46 0.41 0.16 0.42 0.15 0.33 1.00

10 Hedge Funds 0.64 0.62 0.64 0.62 0.18 0.53 0.19 0.42 0.36 1.00

11 Private Equity 0.75 0.70 0.70 0.63 0.05 0.50 0.11 0.39 0.43 0.58 1.00

CPTF-DV000182
Assumed future investment percentages, as provided by Graystone Consulting, are shown 

below:

Assumed Investment Allocation

Asset Class

PYE 

2020- 

2043

PYE 

2044- 

2048

PYE 

2049- 

2053

PYE 

2054+

US Large Cap 18% 18% 18% 18%

US Small/Mid Cap 7% 7% 7% 7%

Non-US Developed 11% 11% 11% 11%

Non-US Emerging 3% 3% 3% 3%

US Fixed - Core 13% 13% 13% 13%

US Fixed - High Yield 2% 5% 5% 2%

Non-US Fixed - Developed 2% 2% 2% 2%

Non-US Fixed - Emerging 2% 4% 4% 2%

Real Estate 20% 15% 12% 20%

Hedge Funds 6% 10% 15% 6%

Private Equity 16% 12% 10% 16%

Mortality

Mortality was assumed to follow the RP-2006 blue collar mortality tables projected 

generationally using the MP-2018 projection scale. Sex-distinct mortality rates were used for 

males and females. The employee tables were used for all participants not in pay status while 

the healthy annuitant tables were used for all participants in pay status.

No adjustments (such as set-forwards or rate multipliers) were applied.

Other Demographic Assumptions

• Withdrawal

Ultimate rates of withdrawal are assumed to follow table T-7 (less GAM-51 mortality) 

from The Actuary’s Pension Handbook. The complete table is shown below:

CPTF-DV000183
Age

Withdrawal 

Rate Age

Withdrawal 

Rate Age

Withdrawal 

Rate 

20 0.099384 35 0.087062 50 0.042247 

21 0.098898 36 0.085466 51 0.036823 

22 0.098398 37 0.083717 52 0.031228 

23 0.097877 38 0.081815 53 0.025661 

24 0.097331 39 0.079756 54 0.020347 

25 0.096742 40 0.077543 55 0.015488 

26 0.096114 41 0.075151 56 0.011247 

27 0.095438 42 0.072556 57 0.007718 

28 0.094704 43 0.069760 58 0.004939 

29 0.093906 44 0.066758 59 0.002879 

30 0.093031 45 0.063540 60 0.001465 

31 0.092065 46 0.060053 61 0.000594 

32 0.091000 47 0.056227 62 0.000152 

33 0.089820 48 0.052000 63+ - 

34 0.088511 49 0.047337 

Additionally, special select rates are applied during the first 4 years that a participant is 

reported:

Year 

Reported

Select 

Withdrawal

Rate

First .500000

Second .300000

Third .150000

Fourth .150000

• Disability 

Rates of disability are assumed to follow 30% of the 1964 OASDI male table. The complete 

table is shown below:

CPTF-DV000184
Age

Disability 

Rate Age

Disability 

Rate Age

Disability 

Rate 

20 0.000602 35 0.001474 50 0.006059 

21 0.000656 36 0.001583 51 0.006723 

22 0.000708 37 0.001707 52 0.007453 

23 0.000758 38 0.001850 53 0.008254 

24 0.000807 39 0.002014 54 0.009131 

25 0.000854 40 0.002201 55 0.010089 

26 0.000901 41 0.002415 56 0.011133 

27 0.000948 42 0.002658 57 0.012267 

28 0.000996 43 0.002933 58 0.013498 

29 0.001046 44 0.003244 59 0.014830 

30 0.001100 45 0.003595 60 0.016269 

31 0.001159 46 0.003987 61 0.017820 

32 0.001224 47 0.004426 62 0.019490 

33 0.001297 48 0.004915 63 0.021285 

34 0.001380 49 0.005458 64 0.023210 

65+ -

• Retirement

For active participants, the following rates of retirement are assumed to apply:

Age

Retirement Rate:

Without Index 

80 or 85 

Requirements

With Index 

80 or 85 

Requirements

55 0.10 0.25

56 0.10 0.25

57 0.10 0.25

58 0.10 0.25

59 0.15 0.25

60 0.15 0.25

61 0.30 0.25

62 0.30 0.40

63 0.30 0.40

64 0.05 0.40

65+ 1.00 1.00

CPTF-DV000185
Assumptions Regarding Form and Commencement Age of Benefits

• “Take Up” Rate of Benefit Form Election

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5

and the calculation of the present value of the reduction in benefits in checklist 

item #12, future retirees were assumed to elect benefit forms according to the 

following table:

Benefit Form

Married 

Participants 

(65% Assumed)

Single 

Participants 

(35% Assumed)

Life annuity 15% 85%

Life-ten year certain 5% 15%

Joint & 50% survivor 20% n/a

Joint & 75% survivor 15% n/a

Joint & 100% survivor 45% n/a

The effect of the various elections was approximated by using a hybrid form of 

benefit consisting of:

 Joint and 66.25% survivor for married actives

 2-year certain for unmarried actives, and

 Joint and 43% survivor with 1 year certain for inactive vesteds.

The benefit amount was calculated using a blended conversion factor at each age 

that was the appropriately-weighted average of the actual conversion factors at 

that age.

o For purposes other than the certification of critical and declining status in checklist 

item #5 and the calculation of the present value of the reduction in benefits in 

checklist item #12, elections were assumed to follow the table provided in the 

previous bullet point, but the elections were explicitly valued. This was done by 

performing multiple runs and taking an appropriately-weighted average of the 

projected benefit payments and other values.

• Benefit Commencement Age for Withdrawal Benefits

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item 

#5, current inactive vested participants are assumed to retire at age 59 if they have 

at least 10 years of service, or age 62 if less than 10 years of service. Future 

inactive vested participants are assumed to retire at age 59.

CPTF-DV000186
o For all purposes other than the certification of critical and declining status in 

checklist item #5, current inactive vested participants are assumed to retire 

according to the following decrement table:

Age

Inactive Retirement Rate

<10 Years of 

Service

10+ Years 

of Service

55 - 0.15

56 - 0.07

57 - 0.07

58 - 0.07

59 - 0.07

60 - 0.07

61 - 0.07

62 0.03 0.25

63 0.03 0.15

64 0.15 0.15

65 0.35 0.40

66 0.10 0.30

67 0.10 0.20

68 - 0.15

69 - 0.10

70+ 1.00 1.00

Future inactive vested participants (i.e., withdrawal benefit for participants who 

are currently active) are assumed to commence at age 59.

• Benefit Commencement Age for Disability Benefits

Current and future disabled participants are assumed to convert to retirement benefits 

at age 62.

CPTF-DV000187
Assumptions Regarding Missing or Incomplete Data

• Assumption Regarding Terminated Vested Participants Beyond Normal Retirement Age

All known inactive vested participants were assumed to be alive. The fund office recently 

undertook a data clean-up project that resulted in the acquisition of hundreds of 

addresses for such people who were previously “missing.”

It was assumed that inactive vested participants who are past their IRC section 401(a)(9) 

required beginning date (“RBD”) on May 1, 2019 will be put into pay status retroactive to 

such date. As such, we assumed that the active/retiree reduction (16%) would apply to 

them in lieu of the inactive reduction (26%).

• Assumptions to Fill In Other Missing Data

The age of participants with unrecorded dates of birth was estimated based on the 

average entry age of participants with recorded dates of birth and the same vesting status 

and reported service.

New Entrant Profile

• Distribution of assumed future new entrants by age and sex are as follows:

Age Sex Distribution

20 M 30.07%

25 M 24.80%

30 M 17.47%

35 M 12.63%

40 M 6.72%

45 M 3.93%

50 M 2.36%

55 M 2.02%

• Future new entrants were assumed to work 1,210 hours per year.

Contribution Rates

• A $15 per hour average contribution rate was assumed for projecting contributions to the 

plan.

• Individual assumed future contribution rates were set equal to the individual participant’s 

average hourly rate received during the 2017-2018 plan year and then pro-rated so that 

the total group average was $15 per hour. It was assumed that 39% of this rate would be 

credited (i.e., benefit bearing).

CPTF-DV000188
Contribution Base Units

• The following future hours worked were assumed for purposes of projecting 

contributions to the plan:

Plan Year 

Ending 4/30: Hours

2020 8.2 million

2021 8.0 million

2022 7.8 million

2023+ 7.0 million

• Individual active participants were assumed to work 1,600 hours per year if they were 

vested and 600 hours per year otherwise. However, these numbers were pro-rated in 

order to conform the total hours worked by the entire population to the table above. 

Withdrawal Liability Payments

• For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5, no 

future withdrawal liability payments were assumed.

• For all other purposes, the following future withdrawal liability payments were assumed:

Plan 

Year(s) 

Ending 

4/30:

Assumed EWL Payments From:

Prior 

Withdrawals

Future 

Withdrawals Total

2020 $ 1,333,196 $ - $ 1,333,196 

2021-2023 36,159 963,841 1,000,000 

2024 36,159 763,841 800,000 

2025-2033 36,159 613,841 650,000 

2034 12,056 637,944 650,000 

2035-2037 7,236 642,764 650,000 

2038 3,618 646,382 650,000 

2039+ - 650,000 650,000 

The assumed payment for the plan year ending April 30, 2020 includes a large assessment 

that is currently being litigated. It was assumed that the fund would receive a lump sum 

payment equal to the assessed liability with a one-third probability.

CPTF-DV000189
Administrative Expenses

• For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item #5, noninvestment expenses were assumed to be $4,000,000 for each future year.

• For all other purposes, non-investment expenses were assumed to be $6,101,734 for the 

plan year ending April 30, 2020. Expenses for the plan year ending April 30, 2021 were 

assumed to be $4,090,000 and were assumed to increase at the rate of 2.25% per year 

thereafter.

Projection Methodology

• The DBVal valuation system was used to perform all actuarial calculations.

• As discussed above, for purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in 

checklist item #5 and the calculation of the present value of the reduction in benefits in 

checklist item #12, the effect of the “take-up” rate of optional benefit form elections was 

approximated by using a hybrid form and amount of benefit.

• No data grouping techniques were used.

• The following changes to the cash flow projections were incorporated:

o Inactive vested participants were processed in separate runs in order to properly 

value the desired retirement decrements. No pre-retirement withdrawal or 

disability rates were assumed for these runs.

o For each plan design scenario, 5 active-only runs (one for each form of benefit), 5 

inactive vested-only runs (one for each form of benefit), and one pay status run 

were done. The projected benefit payments from these 11 runs were blended, 

along with projected benefits from assumed new entrants, to produce the final 

stream of benefit payments.

o Benefit payments from the valuation system output are given as of the beginning 

of each plan year. These were multiplied by a one-half year interest adjustment 

factor to produce cash flows.

o New entrant benefit payments from the valuation system were adjusted for 

contribution rate and total hours.

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item 

#5, active participant cash flows from the valuation system were adjusted for 

contribution rate and total hours. For all other purposes, these adjustments were 

handled within the system.

CPTF-DV000190
Exhibit II

Supporting Documentation for Selection of Certain Assumptions

Investment Returns

• Components of the target portfolio used in the projections expressed in terms of the asset 

classes used for setting the plan’s investment policy. 

Asset Class

Target 

Allocation

Domestic Large Cap 11%

Domestic Small/Mid Cap 7%

International Equity 4%

Emerging Market Equities 3%

Global Equity 8%

Core/Diversified Fixed Income 11%

Bank Loans 2%

Emerging Market Debt 2%

Real Estate 20%

Hedge Funds 6%

Global Asset Allocation/Risk Parity 10%

Private Equity/Debt 16%

• Components of the target portfolio allocated among the asset classes from Survey of 

Capital Market Assumptions: 2019 Edition, published by Horizon Actuarial Services, LLC.

Asset Class

Target 

Allocation

US Large Cap 18%

US Small/Mid Cap 7%

Non-US Developed 11%

Non-US Emerging 3%

US Fixed – Core 13%

US Fixed – High Yield 2%

Non-US Fixed – Developed 2%

Non-US Fixed – Emerging 2%

Real Estate 20%

Hedge Funds 6%

Private Equity 16%

The following asset classes were not included in the Horizon study and have been 

allocated among other included classes:

o Global Equity (8%)

CPTF-DV000191
o Bank Loans (2%)

o Global Asset Allocation/Risk Parity (10%)

• Differences Between Target Portfolio and Current Mix of Assets

Presently, the largest variations within the existing portfolio relative to the target 

allocation are the overweight to domestic fixed income and the underweight to private 

equity. The overweight is largely the result of the recent sale of private debt by the 

pension fund for more than $40 million dollars. The proceeds from the sale of the asset 

were placed in a short- to intermediate-duration fixed income strategy, while new 

alternative investments could be selected and funded. 

Since the sale of the asset mentioned above, the fund has made commitments totaling

$52 million in new private investments, approximately $5 million of which has been 

called. Capital calls for these investments have and will continue to be funded from the 

short- to intermediate-duration fixed income investment, which, over time, will reduce 

the fund’s overweight to fixed income assets and increase the fund’s allocation to private 

equity, bringing these asset classes closer to their intended targets. 

• Expectation That Mix of Assets Will Vary Over Time

In the coming years, as the projected assets of the fund are expected to fall, the allocation 

to long-term illiquid investments is reduced. While this may slightly reduce the return 

characteristics of the fund, it is necessary to ensure that the fund maintains liquidity

necessary to pay benefits to its participants. If the percentage of assets within illiquid 

investments is too high as the fund balance falls, this could lead to a liquidity crisis during 

a market correction, that is, not having sufficient liquid investments available to meet 

benefit payments for participants. Reducing the illiquid investments over time as the fund 

balance declines will provide access to liquid investments that would allow the fund to 

meet its obligations. Over time, as the fund balance and funded status improve, an 

increased allocation to private investments will be considered as a means of improving 

the risk and return characteristics of the fund.

CPTF-DV000192
It is expected that the mix of assets will vary as follows:

Assumed Investment Allocation

Asset Class

PYE 

2019- 

2043

PYE 

2044- 

2048

PYE 

2049- 

2053

PYE 

2054+

US Large Cap 18% 18% 18% 18%

US Small/Mid Cap 7% 7% 7% 7%

Non-US Developed 11% 11% 11% 11%

Non-US Emerging 3% 3% 3% 3%

US Fixed - Core 13% 13% 13% 13%

US Fixed - High Yield 2% 5% 5% 2%

Non-US Fixed - Developed 2% 2% 2% 2%

Non-US Fixed - Emerging 2% 4% 4% 2%

Real Estate 20% 15% 12% 20%

Hedge Funds 6% 10% 15% 6%

Private Equity 16% 12% 10% 16%

• Net investment return assumptions used for deterministic projections

o The net investment return assumptions used for deterministic projections were 

based on:

 The expected net returns, standard deviations, and correlations from the 

Survey of Capital Market Assumptions: 2019 Edition as detailed in 

Document 25.1. Short-term assumptions from the survey were assumed 

to apply to plan years ending prior to May 1, 2029 and the long-term 

assumptions were used thereafter.

 The assumed investment allocations over time as described in the 

preceding section.

CPTF-DV000193
o Stochastic modeling of portfolio returns was performed assuming a 10-year 

holding period for returns prior to May 1, 2029 and a 20-year holding period for 

subsequent years. The 75th, 50th, and 25th percentile returns for each period are 

shown below. 10,000 trials were used.

Percentile

PYE 

2020- 

2029

PYE 

2030-

2043

PYE 

2044- 

2048

PYE 

2049- 

2053

PYE 

2054+

75th 9.28% 9.60% 9.26% 9.08% 9.60%

50th 6.74% 7.82% 7.58% 7.45% 7.82%

25th 4.20% 6.00% 5.85% 5,77% 6.00%

o We also looked at statistics obtained by weighting the expected geometric 

average return furnished by a single manager per asset class responding to the 

Horizon survey. For each asset class, the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile manager 

was used in this weighting. The results are as follows:

Manager 

Percentile

Weighted Geometric Average Return

PYE 

2020- 

2029

PYE 

2030-

2043

PYE 

2044- 

2048

PYE 

2049- 

2053

PYE 

2054+

75th 6.77% 7.78% 7.49% 7.38% 7.78%

50th 6.17% 6.92% 6.65% 6.56% 6.92%

25th 5.63% 6.34% 6.10% 6.03% 6.34%

o We selected the following interest rates by starting from the 50th percentiles from 

our stochastic modeling and then adjusting downward so that they were not too 

close to the edges of the 25th-75th percentile corridor established by the “weighted 

manager” method.

PYE 

2020- 

2029

PYE 

2030-

2043

PYE 

2044- 

2048

PYE 

2049- 

2053

PYE 

2054+

Assumed Interest Rate 6.50% 7.50% 7.30% 7.30% 7.50%

o Since the capital market returns provided in response to the Horizon survey 

included the effects of inflation and were net of investment-related expenses, we 

did not employ an explicit inflation or investment expense assumption.

CPTF-DV000194
Demographic Experience

• Experience Studies

UAS does not typically perform formal experience studies for our clients. We typically 

assess the appropriateness of assumptions by looking at 5-year histories of demographic 

experience (expected versus actual exits by cause) and aggregate liability gain or loss 

relative to the size of accrued liability. If an assumption looks questionable, we perform 

an internal demographic experience study.

A 10-year history of demographic experience is provided below:

PYE 

4/30:

Expected and Actual Exits From Active Status Due To:

Retirement Disablement (Net) Withdrawal

Expected Actual Expected Actual Expected Actual

2018 96.9 97 6.8 6 792.8 403

2017 78.1 80 22.1 5 824.3 653

2016 73.5 96 21.6 8 702.9 506

2015 77.4 46 30.2 5 646.4 500

2014 78.8 53 30.5 12 368.4 669

2013 102.7 57 32.1 48 407.0 684

2012 104.0 117 31.5 47 373.8 272

2011 77.7 123 30.7 41 372.8 220

2010 141.0 173 37.9 61 488.6 1,466

2009 126.4 163 41.5 44 609.2 1,100

PYE 

4/30:

Expected and Actual Deaths by Status

Actives Inactive Vesteds Retirees

Expected Actual Expected Actual Expected Actual

2018 8.9 12 40.1 30 269.1 298

2017 9.8 15 32.9 36 301.3 289

2016 9.3 13 30.6 26 298.3 304

2015 9.2 7 23.6 50 324.1 287

2014 9.5 6 22.2 25 318.1 280

2013 10.2 13 21.3 26 314.1 295

2012 10.6 8 21.6 22 264.2 295

2011 10.4 12 23.5 55 256.2 258

2010 12.9 16 20.4 53 250.6 292

2009 14.3 13 20.0 46 240.2 257

CPTF-DV000195
• Liability Gain/Loss Analysis

Liability gains/losses for the last 10 years, both as a dollar amount and as a percentage of 

accrued liability, are shown below:

• Percentage of Plan Population That Is Married

For the 5 plan years ending April 30, 2014-2018, 1,086 people commenced retirement 

benefits. Of these, 729, or 67.1%, were married and, on average, the male spouse was 

2.1 years older than the female spouse. There were no same sex married couples 

reported.

• Distribution of Optional Form Elections

The distribution of optional form elections at retirement for the plan years ending April 

30, 2014-2018 is shown below:

Benefit Form

Married 

Participants 

Electing

Single 

Participants 

Electing

Life annuity 17.3% 81.5%

Life-ten year certain 3.2% 15.7%

Joint & 50% survivor 21.4% 1.1%*

Joint & 75% survivor 44.6% 1.1%*

Joint & 100% survivor 13.6% 0.6%*

* The plan does not allow single participants to elect a joint and survivor form of benefit. 

The apparent instances of this in the table above are due to divorced retirees who elect 

a joint and survivor annuity pursuant to the terms of a qualified domestic relations order 

(QDRO). For projections, these percentages were assumed to be zero.

• Rates of Retirement by Age

PYE 

4/30:

Liability (Gain)/Loss

As $ Amount

As % of 

Liability

2018 $ 12,008,517 0.54%

2017 17,488,095 0.81%

2016 14,607,648 0.69%

2015 (2,276,720) -0.11%

2014 16,203,453 0.78%

2013 11,546,638 0.55%

2012 16,834,372 0.81%

2011 41,566,901 2.07%

2010 (23,845,603) -1.17%

2009 16,249,855 0.80%

CPTF-DV000196
Retirement experience by for actives based on the plan years ending April 30, 2014-2018 

is summarized below:

Age

Without Index 80 or 85 With Index 80 or 85

Exposure Retirements Rate Exposure Retirements Rate

55 489 49 10.0% 106 32 30.2%

56 380 32 8.4% 41 15 36.6%

57 303 21 6.9% 25 7 28.0%

58 252 25 9.9% 29 9 31.0%

59 191 20 10.5% 27 9 33.3%

60 133 15 11.3% 25 5 20.0%

61 93 23 24.7% 18 4 22.2%

62 90 33 36.7% 9 3 33.3%

63 50 12 24.0% 6 2 33.3%

64 30 5 16.7% 5 2 40.0%

65 22 3 13.6% 6 3 50.0%

66 19 3 15.8% 2 0 0.0%

67 7 2 28.6% 4 2 50.0%

68 5 0 0.0% 2 2 100.0%

69 3 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

70 2 0 0.0% 1 0 0.0%

>70 4 0 0.0% 0 0 0.0%

CPTF-DV000197
Retirement experience by for inactive vested participants based on the plan years ending 

April 30, 2014-2018 is summarized below:

Age

10+ Years of Service 3-9 Years of Service

Exposure Retirements Rate Exposure Retirements Rate

55 427 65 15.2% - - - 

56 361 28 7.8% - - - 

57 304 12 3.9% - - - 

58 291 14 4.8% - - - 

59 264 19 7.2% - - - 

60 235 17 7.2% - - - 

61 206 21 10.2% - - - 

62 188 48 25.5% 492 15 3.0%

63 130 19 14.6% 428 9 2.1%

64 104 16 15.4% 344 49 14.2%

65 82 33 40.2% 237 80 33.8%

66 39 12 30.8% 142 12 8.5%

67 27 6 22.2% 96 7 7.3%

68 22 3 13.6% 70 1 1.4%

69 13 1 7.7% 50 1 2.0%

70 8 2 25.0% 19 4 21.1%

>70 2 2 100.0% 12 2 16.7%

Mortality Assumptions

• Experience Study Underlying Mortality Rates

The vast majority of participants in the plan are employed in the construction industry as 

a carpenter or in a related trade (e.g., millwright). As such, they would classified as blue 

collar workers. Therefore, we selected the blue collar tables of the RP-2014 Mortality 

Tables Report issued by the Society of Actuaries as the basis for the mortality assumption. 

We believe this table is representative of the expected mortality experience under the 

plan.

• Process Used to Construct Tables

As we have selected the blue collar tables of the RP-2014 Mortality Tables Report issued 

by the Society of Actuaries as the basis for the mortality assumptions, we refer the reader 

to the text of this study for a detailed description of how the tables were constructed. 

The report can be found here: 

https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/research/exp-study/research-2014-rpreport.pdf

• Mortality Adjustments

CPTF-DV000198
No adjustments were applied to the blue collar tables found in the RP-2014 study.

• Mortality Improvement

We used the Society of Actuaries’ MP-2018 improvement scales to project mortality rates 

generationally.

New Entrant Profile

• The distribution of ages of new entrants over the past 5 years appears below:

Age 

Range

Percentage of New Entrants for PYE 4/30:

2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

<20 7.79% 6.91% 8.62% 6.38% 7.89%

20-24 19.52% 19.75% 20.94% 19.30% 17.55%

25-29 18.17% 18.62% 16.26% 19.14% 14.00%

30-34 16.65% 19.75% 17.86% 22.01% 20.51%

35-39 14.50% 11.57% 13.30% 9.25% 8.09%

40-44 8.68% 9.59% 8.87% 7.34% 8.09%

45-49 5.46% 7.19% 5.91% 6.06% 9.86%

50-54 5.28% 3.81% 4.31% 5.26% 7.69%

55-59 2.69% 1.83% 3.08% 4.47% 4.34%

60+ 1.25% 0.99% 0.86% 0.80% 1.97%

• New entrants essentially never enter the plan with vesting or benefit service. This is 

because:

o Reciprocity agreements are typically of the “money-follows-man” type, so 

participants generally cannot come in with vesting service earned in another plan 

that carries over to the Carpenters Pension Trust Fund under a “pro-rata”

reciprocity agreement. 

o If the plan is designated as a home fund under a money-follows-man agreement, 

the employee must first become a participant in the plan, so he/she would not be 

a new employee when contributions are transferred in.

o Furthermore, contiguous non-covered service is extremely rare as the plan does 

not allow a termination to occur between the non-covered and covered service.

CPTF-DV000199
Contribution Base Units and Employer Withdrawals

• Employers That Contributed Over 5%

Information on the employers that made more than 5% of total plan year contributions 

during the last 10 plan years (plan years ending April 30, 2009-2018) appears below. Note 

that, during 5 of the last 10 plan years, no single employer accounted for more than 5% 

of the total contributions. Therefore, there is no entry for these plan years (plan years 

ending April 30, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2010, and 2009).

PYE 

4/30:

Employer 

Name

Percent 

of Total Hours

Average 

Contribution 

Rate

Total 

Contribution

2015 Employer A 8.10% 520,846 $ 16.30 $ 8,488,041

2014 Employer B 6.17% 315,567 19.10 6,028,496

2014 Employer A 5.56% 330,062 16.44 5,427,692

2014 Employer C 5.43% 313,658 16.90 5,301,144

2013 Employer B 7.94% 564,592 12.60 7,112,439

2013 Employer C 6.51% 319,310 18.26 5,830,619

2012 Employer B 9.14% 657,240 11.99 7,882,031

2012 Employer C 5.78% 388,064 12.84 4,983,881

2011 Employer C 7.86% 649,819 8.20 5,328,570

2011 Employer B 6.14% 342,167 12.18 4,167,883

• Historical Trends – Contribution Base Units (Hours)

As recently as the early 2000’s, the plan had annual contribution hours in excess of 14 

million. However, by 2010, hours had hit a low point of 5.8 million. The decline was 

largely driven by a struggling Detroit economy. 

The auto industry touches the lives of most of Detroit’s residents in one way or another. 

Consequently, when the auto industry goes through a tough time, so does Detroit. By the 

late 2000’s, flagging car sales had forced both Chrysler and GM to file for bankruptcy. The 

decline of these great American companies, on top of the “great recession” being felt 

across the country, had a chilling effect on union construction projects, resulting in the 

sharp decline in hours.

Work hours have rebounded to some extent since 2011 and are now hovering around the 

8 million mark. However, changes in state labor laws, a decline in union market share, a 

dramatically scaled back Auto Show, and other project-specific issues, will likely force a 

decline in hours over the next few years.

CPTF-DV000200
• Historical Trends – Contribution Rates

Beginning in 2006, the bargaining parties began making consistent contribution rate 

increases in an attempt to improve the plan’s funding situation. These increases were 

typically non-credited/non-benefit bearing. During the period 2006-2014, the average 

hourly contribution rate increased from about $4 to over $15, and the percentage

credited dropped from 100% to about 39%. Please see Document 26.1.

On August 1, 2013, the Trustees voted to adopt the “all reasonable measures” option 

under the Pension Protection Act. Since that time there have been no negotiated 

increases (though the average does fluctuate based on the changing distribution of work 

among the various collective bargaining agreements). 

The Trustees and bargaining parties feel that the high contribution rate coupled with low 

accrual rate make it difficult to attract and retain the best workers. Furthermore, the high 

contribution rates make it difficult for contractors to compete in the bidding process. 

Therefore, the sponsors are of the opinion that future contribution rate increases would 

be detrimental to the plan. 

• Rationale for Hours Assumption

The hours assumptions we have used in this filing were presented to us as the Trustees’ 

best estimates of future industry activity. Due to the extensive knowledge of the local 

construction industry, both from the labor and management side, possessed by the Board 

of Trustees, we believe this estimate to be well-informed and very credible. However, as 

the plan’s actuaries, we must independently verify its reasonableness and 

appropriateness. 

The assumption predicts hours that go up from last year’s 8 million to 8.2 million in plan 

year ending April 30, 2020, then gently decline to 8.0 million and 7.8 million. Beginning 

in 2023 hours drop to 7.0 million, where they remain.

The first 3 years of projections are fairly consistent with the hours experience in plan years 

ending in 2018 and 2019. We do not think that hours will ever return to levels seen in the 

early 2000’s. This is primarily due to market share lost by union contractors following the 

“great recession” and continuing population decline. Rather, a short-term stabilization 

seems more likely.

We also think that the decline in 2023 is reasonable. There are a number of one-time 

projects that are currently underway or scheduled to start soon that will wrap up by 2023

or shortly thereafter with no new work on the horizon to replace them. Some examples 

are:

o $4.4 billion Gordie Howe Bridge is projected to be complete in 2024.

o $1 billion Blue Water Energy Center has a projected completion date in 2021.

CPTF-DV000201
o Monroe Block historic district – scheduled to start work early 2020, construction 

cost is estimated to be $800 million.

o FCA Mack Engine Plant – employs 400+ millwrights and finishes at the end of 2020.

o FCA Warren Truck Assembly – employs 300-400 millwrights and finishes in the first 

quarter of 2021.

Other factors are likely to contribute to an impending decline in hours. These include new 

“right to work” legislation in Michigan, the elimination of “project labor agreements” on 

state construction projections, and a dramatic down-sizing of the Detroit Auto Show.

We think that the ultimate hours level of 7 million is reasonable based on 2 factors:

1. The 10-year historic average of work hours is 6.9 million. 

2. In his 20-year hours forecast prepared for the pension plan, economist 

Malcom S. Cohen predicts that hours will fall sharply in 2022 and then cycle up 

and down over time, with an average level of around 7.2 million.

We have assumed that as hours decline, the plan will see an uptick in assessable 

withdrawals, and that such withdrawals will stabilize shortly after hours stabilize. 

However, as most of the contributing employers qualify for the construction industry 

exemption from withdrawal liability, assessments are much less than one would expect 

for a fund of this size.

• Rationale for Contribution Rate Assumption

The bargaining parties and Trustees are of the opinion that, historically, pension 

contribution rates increased too much and too quickly. They understand that the high 

contributions and low accrual rate will make it difficult to man jobs and retain qualified 

craftsmen. Furthermore, the high contribution rates make it difficult for signatory 

contractors to compete in the market place. 

Therefore, any further increase in contribution rates will likely result in a reduction in 

work hours, giving rise to a net loss in contribution income. Given this situation, it is very 

unlikely that the bargaining parties will want to increase pension contribution rates 

anytime soon.

Contribution rates have been essentially unchanged since 2014. We selected a future 

assumed rate of $15 per hour based on the 5-year average of $15.02 and the belief that 

rates will not increase going forward.

• Experience with Withdrawals

The plan’s 10-year experience with withdrawal liability collections has been as follows:

CPTF-DV000202
PYE 4/30:

Withdrawal 

Liability 

Collected

2010 $ 357,188 

2011 55,520 

2012 1,355,000 

2013 540,000 

2014 - 

2015 1,180,886 

2016 - 

2017 - 

2018 7,236 

2019 3,061,736 

Due to the small number of withdrawals that are actually assessable due to the 

construction industry exemption, there is quite a bit of volatility in the collection 

numbers.

Two employers are currently making quarterly payments, and a case against a third 

employer is being litigated. Based on the known payment schedules and assuming a onethird probability that the case in litigation will result in payment of the allocated liability, 

we estimated collections for the current plan year at $1,333,196.

We felt that, as hours are projected to decline, there would be a greater chance of 

withdrawal liability assessments. Therefore, we left assumed collections at the $1 million 

level for 2021 through 2023. After that we assumed $800,000 for 2024 as a transition 

down the 10-year average of about $650,000, which we assumed for all plan years 

thereafter. 

Our 2018 withdrawal liability report shows 13 contractors who paid some withdrawal 

liability. Of those, 5 were paid in full and 8 were settled or written off. The “discount” on 

the settlements fell in the range of 15%-40%. The write-offs allowed the plan to collect 

only pennies on the dollar.

CPTF-DV000203
Take-up Rate With Respect to Selection of Benefit/Contribution Schedules

The initial rehabilitation plan adopted in 2008 had only 2 schedules: the “preferred” and the 

“default.” Following the adoption of this plan, every bargaining unit adopted the preferred 

schedule. 

In the 2012 update to the rehabilitation plan, the preferred schedule called for contribution rate 

increases every year through 2016 on the Commercial, Display, Floorlayer, Millwright, and 

Roadbuilder contracts. However, when the “all reasonable measures” plan was adopted the 

following year, rates were essentially frozen at the 2013 level and have not been increased since.

Projection Methodology

• Approximation Techniques

As previously discussed, for purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in 

checklist item #5 and the calculation of the present value of the reduction in benefits in 

checklist item #12, the effect of the “take-up” rate of optional benefit form elections was 

approximated by using a hybrid form and amount of benefit.

It was decided to use the hybrid form of benefit technique to approximate the present 

value of the reduction in benefits for checklist item #12 because results were needed on 

a person-by-person basis and, due to system limitations, it was not practical to assign 

each participant record a present value using the same technique we used to generate 

expected benefit payments.

The approximation turned out to produce an error in aggregate annual benefit payments 

that varied from -0.67% to about 1.00% based on implementation of the proposed 

suspension.

• Changes to Cash Flow Projections

o Inactive vested participants were processed in separate runs in order to properly 

value the desired retirement decrements. This was done because our valuation 

system does not fully support inactive decrements.

o For each plan design scenario, 5 active-only runs (one for each form of benefit), 5 

inactive vested-only runs (one for each form of benefit), and one pay status run 

were done. The projected benefit payments from these 11 runs were blended, 

along with projected benefits from assumed new entrants, to produce the final 

stream of benefit payments. This was done because our valuation system does 

not allow the user to assume multiple forms of benefit payment in a single run. 

o Benefit payments from the valuation system output are given as of the beginning 

of each plan year. These were multiplied by a one-half year interest adjustment 

factor to produce cash flows. We think it is more intuitive to work with cash flows 

rather than interest-adjusted cash flows. Additionally, all benefit payments 

CPTF-DV000204
produced by the valuation system are discounted at the valuation interest rate, 

whereas, when projecting assets, various rates of interest are applied.

o New entrant benefit payments from the valuation system were adjusted for 

contribution rate and total hours. This was done outside of the valuation system 

to prevent having to re-do these runs following an assumption change.

o For purposes of the certification of critical and declining status in checklist item 

#5, active participant cash flows from the valuation system were adjusted for 

contribution rate and total hours. The certification of critical and declining status 

was done before work on this filing had commenced and we had not yet 

developed code to handle this adjustment internally.

CPTF-DV000205
Exhibit III

Additional Disclosures Relating to the Use of Different Assumptions

• Deterministic Projections

Explanation of differences between assumptions used under sections 4.02(1) and 3.01 of 

Revenue Procedure 2017-43.

o The short-term interest rate used under section 3.01 is 6.4% versus 6.5% used 

under section 4.02(1). The average short-term returns are generally higher in the 

2019 Horizon survey as compared to the 2018 survey. When the certification of 

critical and declining status was completed, the 2019 survey was not yet 

published. Additional analysis using the new survey caused us to raise this rate.

o The long-term interest rate used under section 3.01 is a flat 7.5%, whereas, the 

projections under section 4.02(1) include 5-year periods of 7.3% and 7.2% that 

coincide with assumed changes in asset mix. The average long-term returns are 

generally lower in the 2019 Horizon survey as compared to the 2018 survey. 

When the certification of critical and declining status was completed, the 2019 

survey was not yet published. Additional analysis using the new survey revealed 

that there was not enough conservatism built into the 7.5% assumption to absorb 

the assumed asset mix changes occurring in the plan years ending in 2044 and 

2049. Therefore, we lowered the assumed returns during these periods.

o The “take-up” rate for benefit form election was approximated with a hybrid form 

of benefit under section 3.01, whereas, the assumption is explicitly valued under 

section 4.01(1). When the certification of critical and declining status was 

completed, it was based on the 2018 actuarial valuation report, which used the 

hybrid form approach. We felt that it was not necessary to incorporate the explicit 

approach because the approximation is at its worst when the guarantee-based 

limitation comes into play. As the certification did not value any type of benefit 

reduction, the guarantee-based limitation was not an issue.

o For purposes of section 3.01, current inactive vested participants are assumed to 

retire at age 59 if they have at least 10 years of service, or age 62 if less than 10 

years of service. Under the section 4.01(1) calculations, retirement rates are used 

to value inactive vested participants. The critical and declining certification was 

prepared prior this filing and, at that point in time, we had not developed the 

coding needed to explicitly value multiple retirement ages for inactives.

o For the projections under section 3.01, no future withdrawal liability payments 

were assumed. At the time the critical and declining certification was prepared, 

we had not collected or analyzed information on prior withdrawal liability 

collections and did not think it would be material to the results of the certification.

CPTF-DV000206
o For the projections under section 3.01, we did not take into account any increased 

expenses due to the MPRA filing or future inflation in expenses. At the time the 

critical and declining certification was prepared, we did not realize the magnitude 

of plan expenses due to the filing. When preparing this filing we decided it would 

be more appropriate to increase the 2019-2020 expense level to reflect these 

additional costs. We also followed our standard valuation practice of assuming flat 

expenses going forward when completing the certification. When completing this 

filing, we decided it would be more accurate to include a future inflation 

adjustment in our expense assumption.

• Stochastic Projections

Other than differences inherent in deterministic versus stochastic modeling, we do not 

believe there are any discrepancies between the assumptions used for the deterministic 

projection under section 4.02(1) of Revenue Procedure 2017-43, and the stochastic 

projections under section 4.02(2).

CPTF-DV000207
1 

Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity

20-year Forecast

August 26, 2019

Prepared by 

Malcolm S. Cohen, PhD

President, Employment Research Corporation

Prepared for

Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters, Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit & Vicinity

c/o Benesys, Inc.

Attn: Joan Janks, Plan Manager

700 Tower Drive, Ste. 300

Troy, MI 48098

CPTF-DV000208
2 

Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – Detroit and Vicinity – 20-year Forecast

I was asked to make a 20-year projection of hours worked for unionized carpenters in the state of 

Michigan. This report summarizes my findings.

Qualifications– Malcolm S. Cohen, PhD

I am the president of Employment Research Corporation, a firm located in Ann Arbor, Michigan, that 

specializes in employment and wage and hour research. I obtained my Ph.D. in Economics from MIT, 

with specializations in Econometrics and Labor Economics. After graduating from MIT, I worked for the 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, D.C. I have taught at the University of Maryland, the 

University of Michigan, and the University of Minnesota. The classes I have taught include Statistics, 

Economics, Labor Market Information, Human Resource Management, Human Resource Information 

Systems, and Econometrics. I served as Director of the Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations at the 

University of Michigan from 1980 to 1993. At the University of Michigan, I also served varied terms as 

the Chairman of the Program for Human Resource Development, a graduate certificate program, 

between 1975 and 1978. I have conducted extensive research on labor market issues, new hires, labor 

shortages and labor market information. I have written over 50 articles and books on related topics. I 

have testified or been a consultant in over 1,000 audits or cases and have testified over 300 times. I 

have also served as an expert to the EEOC and U.S. Department of Labor.

Under contract to the Wage and Hour Division of the U.S. Department of Labor, I prepared detailed 

estimates of the number and characteristics of the exempt and non-exempt employees for 

congressionally mandated minimum wage studies published in June 1998 and January 2001. 

Additionally, under contract to the Wage and Hour Division, I prepared a report describing major 

changes in the U.S. economy and estimating how those changes would impact the viability of 29 CFR § 

541 regulatory requirements (namely, The “New Economy" and Its Impact on Executive, Administrative 

and Professional Exemptions to the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA)). The DOL submitted each of these 

reports to the U.S. Congress for its information and use in considering proposed regulations and 

legislation. My Curriculum Vitae is attached as Appendix A.

Related Publications

While I was at the Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations at the University of Michigan from 1972-

1993, I authored or coauthored a number of related publications, including: 

"The Economic Outlook for the Metropolitan Areas of Michigan" with George A. Fulton and 

Donald R. Grimes. The Economic Outlook for 1987, proceedings of the Thirty-fourth Annual 

Conference on the Economic Outlook. Ann Arbor: Research Seminar in Quantitative 

Economics, University of Michigan

Occupational Employment Forecasts for the Flint SMSA, with Arthur R. Schwartz and Donald R. Grimes. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts, Michigan, East and Central 

Major Areas, with Harold T. Shapiro, Arthur R. Schwartz, and Alan Kett. 

CPTF-DV000209
3 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts, Southeast Michigan, with 

Harold T. Shapiro, George A. Fulton, and Arthur R. Schwartz. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts, Michigan, Western Major 

Areas, with Harold T. Shapiro, Arthur R. Schwartz, and Alan Kett. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts, State of Michigan, with 

Harold T. Shapiro and George A. Fulton. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts: Multi-County Balance of 

State Areas, with Harold T. Shapiro, Arthur R. Schwartz, Alan Kett, and Philip Mirowski.

Wage and Salary Forecast, Michigan, with Arthur R. Schwartz. 

Civilian Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Forecasts for the Flint SMSA. 

An Econometric Model of a Local Urban Labor Market: The Flint SMSA. 

An Econometric Model of a Local Urban Labor Market: The Denver, Colorado SMSA. 

Data and documents reviewed

In preparing this report I have reviewed the following data and publications:

1. Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters Pension Trust Fund Detroit and Vicinity Summary Plan 

Description, January 1, 2017.

2. First-seventh and thirteenth Amendments to the Pension Plan of the Carpenters’ Pension Trust 

Fund – Detroit and Vicinity (As Restated on October 7, 2014). 

3. Carpenters Pension Trust Fund All Reasonable Measures Plan 2013.

4. 10-Year Active Membership Statistics, UBC Midwestern District 2009-2019. 

5. Annual Carpenters Pension Trust Fund Actuarial Valuation Reports May 1, 2011 – May 1, 2018.

6. Wage rates for various union locals for time periods from 2016 to 2018 for different areas in 

Michigan. 

7. Various collective bargaining agreements for the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters. 

8. Financial Statements for the Carpenters’ Pension Trust Fund – 2012-2017.

9. Form 990 and Form 5500 for tax years ending 4/30/2013-4/30/2017. 

10. An email from Paul Newcomer dated April 26, 2019 providing background for the report.

11. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment 

Survey on the Employment of Carpenters, 2003-2018.

12. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 5/22/2019. 

13. University of Michigan RSQE press release Job Growth Michigan Forecast 2017-2020. 

14. National employment projections, U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, 

Employment Projections, 2016-2026, and descriptions of their methodology. 

15. Michigan Occupational Employment Projections, Michigan Bureau of Labor Market Information 

and Strategic Initiatives, 2016-2026.

CPTF-DV000210
4 

16. Labor Force Statistics Derived from the CPS, September 1982, BLS Bulletin 2096. 

17. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, January 1983. 

18. Current Population Survey, Employed Persons by detailed Occupation, 1983-2002. 

19. Current Population Survey, Employed Persons by detailed Occupation and Sex, annual averages, 

2000-2010. 

20. Current Population Survey, Employed Persons by detailed Occupation and Sex, annual averages, 

2011-2018. 

21. Trends in carpenter employment (number of jobs reported by establishment) in Detroit, 

Michigan and the United States, 1997 -2018. 

22. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey-gundlach-increases-us-recession-odds-75-percent193520909.html. 

23. National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.

24. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/22/manufacturing-sector-contracts-for-the-first-time-innearly-a-decade-according-to-ihs-markit.html

Analysis

I was asked to make a projection of demand for unionized construction-industry carpenters in Michigan. 

I was provided with historical data on hours worked by members of the Carpenters Pension Trust Fund – 

Detroit and Vicinity (“the Fund”). Employer contributions to the Fund are related to each employee’s 

hourly rate. There are different kinds of projections. Economists look at past trends and current leading 

indicators and make projections based on these trends. These forecasts are intended to assist analysts in 

understanding broad trends and risks and are not intended to determine actual contribution rates that 

should be made to keep a pension plan solvent. These determinations are typically made by actuaries 

that have more experience with fund flows and understand risks to the solvency of the fund. They also 

have a better understanding of the specifics of the fund contributors as well as specific risks.

CPTF-DV000211
5 

The Fund’s Annual Actuarial Valuation reports hours worked each year. Figure 1 shows hours worked for 

the Fund between 2003 and 2018.1

 

Figure 1

Source: Annual Carpenters Pension Trust Fund Actuarial Valuation Reports May 1, 2011 – May 1, 2018

From 2003 to 2010, hours worked by Carpenters in the Fund declined. From 2010 to 2018, hours worked 

increased from just under 6 million hours per year to nearly 8 million hours per year, or 4.2% per year. 

This high rate of growth was related to the recovery from the 2008-2010 recession and is unlikely to 

continue. 

In order to project expected hours worked for future years, I compared the data on hours with measures 

related to industry activity such as Carpenters’ employment in the United States, Michigan and the 

Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area. Figure 2 shows Carpenter employment in Michigan and in the 

Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area from 2003 to 2018.2

 

Figure 2 

1 I was provided with actuarial valuations for 2011-2018. The 2012 valuation included a chart I used to estimate 

hours worked back to 2003.

2 Occupational Employment Statistics Data for Michigan and the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical area for 

Carpenters (47-2031), 2003-2018, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Hours

Hours Worked in the Carpenters' Pension Trust Fund, 2003-2018

Hours Worked (in thousands)

CPTF-DV000212
35,000 

30,000 

25,000 

20,000 

15,000 

10,000 

5,000 

0 

Occupational Employment Survey Carpenter Employment in Michigan and the 

Detroit Metorpolitan Statistical Area, 2003-2018 

...... ~~~~,--------------------------------~ 

' ' ' ...... ...... -----------',~ --~ .... -- '~ ~~ ---- -~ ... ,, -- --~,,---------~~-~--

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 

--- Ml Employment (in thousands) - Detroit MSA Employment (in thousands) 

Source : Bu reau of Labor St atistics, Occupationa l Employment Survey, 2003-2018. 

Both Michigan employment and the Detroit Metropolitan Area employment exhibit a similar historical 

pattern as hours worked by members of the Carpenters Pension Trust Fund. Figure 3 shows both 

Carpenter employment in Michigan and hours worked in the Carpenters Pension Trust Fund. 

Figure 3 

..., 

C: 

35,000 

30,000 

25,000 

e 20,000 

> 

0 t 15,000 

UJ 

10,000 

5,000 

0 

OES Carpenter Employment in Michigan and Hours Worked in the Carpenters' 

Pension Trust Fund, 2003-2018 

" ' ' ...... ... , 

' ' ...... ...... -- ... -- '--------

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 

--- Ml Employment (in thousands) - Hours Worked (in thousands) 

14,000 

12,000 

10,000 

8,000 

6,000 

4,000 

2,000 

0 

Source : Bureau of Labor St atistics, Occupationa l Employment Survey, 2003-2018 and Carpe nters' Pension Trust Fu nd Actua ria l Va luation 

documents, 2011-2018. 

CPTF-DV000213 

"O 

a, 

-"" 

... 

0 

3 

~ ::, 

0 

:I: 

6 
Although they are on different scales, the trend in Carpenter employment in M ichigan has been 

reflected in the hours worked by members of the fund over the past 15 years. 

The demand for Carpenters can fluctuate based on economic condit ions. During an economic recession, 

it is not unusual to see a decrease in demand for many types of labor. The National Bureau of Economic 

Research (NBER) defines a recession as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the 

economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, 

industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." 3 Figure 4 shows the real Gross Domestic Product 

(GDP) in billions from 1978 to 2018, with NBER-defined recessions shown in the shaded areas. 

Figure 4 

20,000 

18,000 

16,000 

14,000 

12,000 

10,000 

8,000 

6,000 

4,000 

2,000 

0 

Real GDP in billions, 1978 to 2018, with recessions indicated 

Recession - Real GDP 

Source: Real GDP in billions of chained 2012 dollars, Qua rte rly, seasonally adjusted annual rate and recession data from Federal Reserve 

Economic Data {https://fred.stlouisfed.org). 

Although there are quantitative methods for predicting the likelihood of future recessions, there is not a 

reliable way to predict precisely when a recession will begin or end, or how many will occur in a 20-year 

period. However, we can make projections which show likely future economic activity, adjusting for the 

possible impact of recessionary periods which can lead to declines in Carpenter employment. Since the 

NBER began measuring recessions in 1857 there has not been a 10-year period without a recession 

except the current cycle, June 2009 to present. Therefore, it seems probable that there will be at least 

one recession, and probably two, in the next 20 years. 

3 NBER we bsit e, http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html 

7 

CPTF-DV000214 
Figure 5 shows the employment of Carpenters in the U.S. over the last 40 years. The shaded areas 

indicate, from peak to trough, declines in Carpenter employment in the United States. Historical data is 

based on the Current Population Survey ( CPS) conducted by the United States Bureau of the Census. 

4 

Figure 5 

2,000 

1,800 

1,600 

1,400 

1,200 

1,000 

800 

600 

400 

200 

0 

U.S. Employment of Carpenters, 1978-2018, with declines indicated 

decline -e-Number Employed (in Thousands) 

Source : United States Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

In the last 40 years there have been three major declines in Carpenter employment, occurring from 

1979-1982, 1988-1992, and 2006-2010. From 2006 to 2010, Carpenter employment dropped by 33%. 

Over the same t ime period, hours worked by carpenters in M ichigan declined by 47%, from 11,200,000 

to 5,900,000. 

To estimate the impact of future declines, I have included a projection that assumes there will be two 

declines over the next 20 years that and that each will average 30%. I assume that employment will 

decline 15% during the first year, and bottom at 30% in the second year, then return to the 4.2% growth 

rate experienced by Carpenter hours from 2010 to 2018. 

In this projection, shown in Figure 6, Carpenter hours will reach 7.7 million by 2038, but there is a 30% 

reduction in hours occurring over two years in 2021 and 2032. 

4 The count of Carpenters in the CPS differs from OES data because it includes persons self-reporting t heir 

occupation as a carpenter to the census bureau, where OES data is based on reporting by employers. 

CPTF-DV000215 

8 
Figure 6 

Carpenter Hours Worked in Michigan, with projection 

14,000 

12,000 

.;;-

"C 

C 10,000 ro 

..,, 

::::, 

0 

..c 8,000 .... 

C 

= "C 

QJ 

.,0: 

... 6,000 0 

,,, ,,, ~ _,411' ' \ ,, \ ,, _______________ \ ,, \ ,,' '. .. ,' , ......... 

3= 

..,, 

... 

::::, 4,000 0 

:i: 

2,000 

0 

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 

- Hours Worked (in thousands) - - - ERC projection 

Table 1 provides the projection in manhours by year from 2019 to 2038. 

9 

CPTF-DV000216 
10

Table 1: Projected Hours for Carpenters’ Pension Fund – Detroit and Vicinity 

Year Projected 

Hours Worked

2019 8,528,350 

2020 8,886,541 

2021 7,553,560 

2022 6,220,579 

2023 6,481,843 

2024 6,754,080 

2025 7,037,752 

2026 7,333,337 

2027 7,641,337 

2028 7,962,274 

2029 8,296,689 

2030 8,645,150 

2031 7,348,377 

2032 6,051,605 

2033 6,305,772 

2034 6,570,615 

2035 6,846,581 

2036 7,134,137 

2037 7,433,771 

2038 7,745,989 

Conclusion

Based on my analysis of the various economic forecasts and projections I reviewed, it is my opinion that 

there is a strong possibility of one or more recessions occurring in the 20-year period of the projection, 

resulting in a decline in Michigan Carpenter hours from 2019 to 2038. 

CPTF-DV000217
TO: ALL INDEPENDENT COMMERCIAL CONTRACTORS (SECTION F2) 

The 2019-2023 labor contract with the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters provides for a June 1, 2019 Gross 

Wage increase for Southeast Michigan of $1.70/hr. effective June 1, 2019. The increase has been allocated as 

follows: Base Wage $0.70, Annuity Fund $0.70, and Apprenticeship $0.30. 

EFFECTIVE THE FIRST FULL PAYROLL PERIOD 

COMMENCING ON OR AFTER JUNE 1, 2019 THROUGH MAY 31, 2020 

CARPENTER JOURNEYMAN RATES 

*Base Wage *Special Assessment Fund (taxed) *Special Assessment Building Fund (taxed) *U.B.C. Per Cap (taxed) 

U.B.C. Training (funded) 

Health & Welfare Insurance (funded) 

Health & Welfare Supplemental (funded) 

Pension - 48.65% of base wage (funded) 

Annuity Fund - 11 .77% of base wage (funded) 

GROSS WAGE 

Apprenticeship (funded) Apprenticeship Reimbursement Fund (funded) 

Guaranty Fund (funded) 

Labor Management Partnership Team (funded) 

Industry Advancement Fund (funded) 

TOTAL 

Day Shift 

Per Hour 

$ 32.70 

0.20 

0.20 0.05 0.10 

7.05 

0.91 

15.91 

3.85 

$ 60.97 

1.00 

0.12 0.10 0.07 0.15 

$ 62.41 

2nd Shift 

Per Hour 

$ 34.88 

0.20 

0.20 

0.05 

0.10 

7.05 

0.91 

16.97 

4.11 

$ 64.47 

1.00 

0.12 0.10 

0.07 0.15 

$ 65.91 

3rd Shift 

Per Hour 

$ 37.37 

0.20 

0.20 0.05 

0.10 

7.05 

0.91 

18.18 

4.40 

$ 68.46 

1.00 

0.12 0.10 0.07 0.15 

$ 69.90 

Geographic jurisdiction of Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Sanilac, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne Counties. Also including 

in Livingston County the townships of Brighton, Deerfield, Genoa, Green Oak, Hamburg, Hartland, Oceola, Putnam, 

Tyrone and Unadilla 

Calculation of Pension & Annuity Contributions are on regular-time (hours worked) pay ONLY. 

Dues Deduction - Per the Michigan Regional Council By-Laws, dues shall be deducted from the employee's Total 

Base Wage. The amount of the dues is included in the Base Wage as stated above (currently 4.00%) and deducted 

on all premium and overtime pay. *Taxable 

400 Renaissance Center, Ste. 1010 

Detroit, Ml 48243 

Phone: (313) 285-5000 Fax: (313) 832-1578 

23401 Mound Road, Ste. 101 

Warren, Ml 48091 

Phone: (313) 832-3887 F•"~~ 

888-HAMMER-9 

www.hammer9.com 

• ~ 5 
Base Wage $ 34.09 $ 36.36 $ 38.96 

*Special Assessment Fund (taxed) 0.20 0.20 0.20 

*Special Assessment Building Fund (taxed) 0.20 0.20 0.20 *U.B.C. Per Cap (taxed) 0.05 0.05 0.05 

U.B.C. Training (funded) 0.10 0.10 0.10 Health & Welfare Insurance (funded) 7.05 7.05 7.05 Health & Welfare Supplemental (funded) 0.91 0.91 0.91 Pension - 48.65% of base wage (funded) 16.58 17.69 18.95 

Annuity Fund - 11 .77% of base wage (funded) 4.01 4.28 4.59 

GROSS WAGE $ 63.19 $ 66.84 $ 71.01 

Apprenticeship (funded) 1.00 1.00 1.00 

Apprenticeship Reimbursement Fund (funded) 0.12 0.12 0.12 

Guaranty Fund (funded) 0.10 0.10 0.10 

Labor Management Partnership Team (funded) 0.07 0.07 0.07 

Industry Advancement Fund (funded) 0.15 0.15 0.15 

TOTAL $ 64.63 $ 68.28 $ 72.45 

CARPENTER LAYOUT MAN RA TES 

Day Shift 2nd Shift 3rd Shift 

Per Hour Per Hour Per Hour 

*Base Wage $ 33.81 $ 36.06 $ 38.64 *Special Assessment Fund (taxed) 0.20 0.20 0.20 *Special Assessment Building Fund (taxed) 0.20 0.20 0.20 *U.B.C. Per Cap (taxed) 0.05 0.05 0.05 

U.B.C. Training (funded) 0.10 0.10 0.10 

Health & Welfare Insurance (funded) 7.05 7.05 7.05 Health & Welfare Supplemental (funded) 0.91 0.91 0.91 

Pension - 48.65% of base wage (funded) 16.45 17.54 18.80 

Annuity Fund - 11.77% of base wage (funded) 3.98 4.24 4.55 

GROSS WAGE $ 62.75 $ 66.35 $ 70.50 

Apprenticeship (funded) 1.00 1.00 1.00 

Apprenticeship Reimbursement Fund (funded) 0.12 0.12 0.12 

Guaranty Fund (funded) 0.10 0.10 0.10 

Labor Management Partnership Team (funded) 0.07 0.07 0.07 

Industry Advancement Fund (funded) 0.15 0.15 0.15 

TOTAL $ 64.19 $ 67.79 $ 71 .94 

Calculation of Pension & Annuity Contributions are on regular-time (hours worked) pay ONLY. 

Dues Deduction - Per the Michigan Regional Council By-Laws, dues shall be deducted from the employee's Total 

Base Wage. The amount of the dues is included in the Base Wage as stated above (currently 4.00%) and deducted 

on all premium and overtime pay. 

*Taxable 

CPTF-DV000219 
First Shift *Spec *UBC UBC 48.65% 11.77% Guar.

*Base Assmt. Per Cap Train Ins. Pension Annuity Gross Appr. Reimb LMPT IAF Fund Total

1st 6 mo (55%) $17.99 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $8.75 $2.12 $37.37 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $38.81

2nd 6 mo (55%) $17.99 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $8.75 $2.12 $37.37 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $38.81

3rd 6 mo (60%) $19.62 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $9.55 $2.31 $39.99 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $41.43

4th 6 mo (65%) $21.26 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $10.34 $2.50 $42.61 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $44.05

5th 6 mo (70%) $22.89 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $11.14 $2.69 $45.23 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $46.67

6th 6 mo (75%) $24.53 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $11.93 $2.89 $47.86 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $49.30

7th 6 mo (80%) $26.16 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $12.73 $3.08 $50.48 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $51.92

8th 6 mo (85%) $27.80 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $13.52 $3.27 $53.10 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $54.54

Second Shift *Spec *UBC UBC 48.65% 11.77% Guar.

*Base Assmt. Per Cap Train Ins. Pension Annuity Gross Appr. Reimb LMPT IAF Fund Total

1st 6 mo (55%) $19.18 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $9.33 $2.26 $39.28 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $40.72

2nd 6 mo (55%) $19.18 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $9.33 $2.26 $39.28 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $40.72

3rd 6 mo (60%) $20.93 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $10.18 $2.46 $42.08 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $43.52

4th 6 mo (65%) $22.67 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $11.03 $2.67 $44.88 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $46.32

5th 6 mo (70%) $24.42 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $11.88 $2.87 $47.68 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $49.12

6th 6 mo (75%) $26.16 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $12.73 $3.08 $50.48 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $51.92

7th 6 mo (80%) $27.90 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $13.57 $3.28 $53.26 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $54.70

8th 6 mo (85%) $29.65 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $14.42 $3.49 $56.07 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $57.51

Third Shift *Spec *UBC UBC 48.65% 11.77% Guar.

*Base Assmt. Per Cap Train Ins. Pension Annuity Gross Appr. Reimb LMPT IAF Fund Total

1st 6 mo (55%) $20.55 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $10.00 $2.42 $41.48 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $42.92

2nd 6 mo (55%) $20.55 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $10.00 $2.42 $41.48 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $42.92

3rd 6 mo (60%) $22.42 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $10.91 $2.64 $44.48 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $45.92

4th 6 mo (65%) $24.29 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $11.82 $2.86 $47.48 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $48.92

5th 6 mo (70%) $26.16 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $12.73 $3.08 $50.48 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $51.92

6th 6 mo (75%) $28.03 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $13.64 $3.30 $53.48 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $54.92

7th 6 mo (80%) $29.90 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $14.55 $3.52 $56.48 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $57.92

8th 6 mo (85%) $31.76 $0.40 $0.05 $0.10 $7.96 $15.45 $3.74 $59.46 $1.00 $0.12 $0.07 $0.15 $0.10 $60.90

*Taxable 

Special Assessment of $0.40 includes $0.20 for the Building Fund.

Calculation of Pension & Annuity Contributions are on regular-time pay ONLY.

Insurance amount of $7.96 is $7.05 for Health & Welfare Insurance and $.91 for the Health & Welfare Supplemental Fund.

Dues Deduction - Per the Michigan Regional Council By-Laws, dues shall be deducted from the employee's Total Base Wage. The amount of the dues is 

included in the Base Wage as stated above (currently 4.00%) and deducted on all premium and overtime pay.

INDEPENDENT CONTRACT (SECTION F2)

CARPENTER APPRENTICESHIP WAGE SCALE

EFFECTIVE THE FIRST FULL PAYROLL PERIOD

COMMENCING ON OR AFTER JUNE 1, 2019 THROUGH MAY 31, 2020

CARPENTER APPRENTICE RATES

Geographic jurisdiction of Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Sanilac, St. Clair, Washtenaw and Wayne Counties. Also including in Livingston County the 

townships of Brighton, Deerfield, Genoa, Green Oak, Hamburg, Hartland, Oceola, Putnam, Tyrone and Unadilla

CPTF-DV000220
FIRST SHIFT

0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95

Journeyman Rate . Hrs 17.70 19.18 20.65 22.13 23.60 25.08 26.55 28.03

V & H x Hrs Paid 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75

Pension Gross Wage 20.70 22.43 24.15 25.88 27.60 29.33 31.05 32.78

U.B.C. Per Capita x Hrs Paid 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Spec Assess x Hrs Paid 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20

Total Taxable Wage 20.95 22.68 24.40 26.13 27.85 29.58 31.30 33.03

H & W Ins x Hrs Paid 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05

H & W MRA x Hrs Paid 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Pen. x Hrs Paid 9.46 10.24 11.03 11.82 12.61 13.39 14.18 14.97

Supp Pen x Hrs Paid 6.14 6.48 6.82 7.16 7.49 7.83 8.17 8.50

App Trn x Hrs Paid 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

UBC H & S x Hrs Paid 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

UBC MLMP Fund x Hrs Paid 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Package 45.25 48.10 50.95 53.81 56.65 59.50 62.35 65.20

Southeastern Apprentice Rates 6-01-19 thru 5-31-20

CPTF-DV000221
*These rates apply to $2.00/hr. shift premium

*For other shift premiums, please contact the Fringe Benefit office for rates.

SECOND SHIFT

0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95

Journeyman Rate . Hrs 19.70 21.18 22.65 24.13 25.60 27.08 28.55 30.03

V & H x Hrs Paid 3.26 3.50 3.74 3.99 4.23 4.47 4.71 4.96

Pension Gross Wage 22.96 24.68 26.39 28.12 29.83 31.55 33.26 34.99

U.B.C. Per Capita x Hrs Paid 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Spec Assess x Hrs Paid 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20

Total Taxable Wage 23.21 24.93 26.64 28.37 30.08 31.80 33.51 35.24

H & W Ins x Hrs Paid 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05

H & W MRA x Hrs Paid 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Pen. x Hrs Paid 10.53 11.32 12.11 12.90 13.68 14.47 15.25 16.05

Supp Pen x Hrs Paid 6.33 6.68 7.04 7.39 7.74 8.09 8.45 8.80

App Trn x Hrs Paid 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

UBC H & S x Hrs Paid 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

UBC MLMP Fund x Hrs Paid 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Package 48.77 51.63 54.49 57.36 60.20 63.06 65.91 68.79

1.00

Southeastern Apprentice Rates 6-01-19 thru 5-31-20

CPTF-DV000222
FIRST SHIFT

Journey. Fore. Genl.

Cert. 

Weld.

Journeyman Rate . Hrs 29.50 31.50 32.50 31.50

V & H x Hrs Paid 5.00 5.35 5.56 5.07

Pension Gross Wage 34.50 36.85 38.06 36.57

U.B.C. Per Capita x Hrs Paid 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Spec Assess x Hrs Paid 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20

Total Taxable Wage 34.75 37.10 38.31 36.82

H & W Ins x Hrs Paid 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05

H & W MRA x Hrs Paid 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Pen. x Hrs Paid 15.76 16.34 16.68 15.87

Supp Pen x Hrs Paid 8.84 9.09 9.24 8.89

App Trn x Hrs Paid 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

UBC H & S x Hrs Paid 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

UBC MLMP Fund x Hrs Paid 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Package 68.05 71.23 72.93 70.28

Southeastern Journeyman Rates 6-01-19 thru 5-31-20

CPTF-DV000223
SECOND SHIFT

Journey. Fore. Genl.

Cert. 

Weld.

Journeyman Rate . Hrs 31.50 33.50 34.50 33.50

V & H x Hrs Paid 5.35 5.70 5.91 5.42

Pension Gross Wage 36.85 39.20 40.41 38.92

U.B.C. Per Capita x Hrs Paid 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Spec Assess x Hrs Paid 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20

Total Taxable Wage 37.10 39.45 40.66 39.17

H & W Ins x Hrs Paid 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05

H & W MRA x Hrs Paid 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Pen. x Hrs Paid 16.84 17.40 17.72 16.95

Supp Pen x Hrs Paid 9.15 9.40 9.55 9.20

App Trn x Hrs Paid 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

UBC H & S x Hrs Paid 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

UBC MLMP Fund x Hrs Paid 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Total Package 71.79 74.95 76.63 74.02

*These rates apply to $2.00/hr. shift premium

*For other shift premiums, please contact the Fringe Benefit office for rates.

Southeastern Rates 6-01-19 thru 5-31-20

CPTF-DV000224
Pension Plan's Ten-Year Experience for Certain Critical Assumptions

Plan Year

Ending

4/30:

Base

Units

(Hours)

Average 

Hourly

Rate

Contributions 

Excluding EWL

Payments

EWL

Payments

Return on 

Assets

(Mkt Value)

2010 5,796,364 $ 8.88 $ 51,098,236 $ 357,188 13.43%

2011 6,267,773 10.44 65,371,474 55,520 10.62%

2012 6,882,663 12.23 82,849,388 1,355,000 -3.63%

2013 6,452,511 14.33 91,919,158 540,000 6.31%

2014 6,201,665 15.78 97,871,522 - 10.51%

2015 6,771,552 15.76 105,528,508 1,180,886 4.42%

2016 7,306,229 15.23 111,258,164 - -0.22%

2017 7,266,322 14.69 106,706,279 - 11.13%

2018 8,184,597 15.05 123,139,985 7,236 7.87%

2019 7,953,779 14.37 111,201,999 3,061,736 6.26%

Averages

5-year 7,496,496 15.02 111,566,987 849,972 5.82%1

10-year 6,908,345 13.67 94,694,471 655,757 6.55%1

Sources

• Hours: 2010-2018 from valuation data, 2019 supplied by administrative manager

• Contributions Excluding EWL Payments and Return on Market Value of Plan Assets:

2010-2018 from audited financial statements, 2019 from unaudited financials

• EWL Payments: Supplied by Fund Counsel

• Average Contribution Rate: Calculated from other columns

1 Geometric average shown

CPTF-DV000225
Pension Plan's Demonstration of Sensitivity of Projections

The following exhibits provide 4 separate, deterministic solvency ratio projections intended to help 

gauge the sensitivity of the projections to certain key assumptions as required by Section 6.05 of 

Revenue Procedure 2017-43. Each exhibit was prepared recognizing the proposed suspension. As 

permitted by Section 6.05, Exhibits III and IV do not recognize any change in expected benefit 

payments that may result from using alternate assumptions regarding future contribution base 

units.

• Exhibit I projects the Pension Plan's solvency ratio using assumed rates of return reduced

by one percentage point (beginning with the plan year ending April 30, 2021);

• Exhibit II projects the Pension Plan's solvency ratio using assumed rates of return reduced

by 2 percentage points (beginning with the plan year ending April 30, 2021);

• Exhibit III projects the Pension Plan's solvency ratio using a 3.21% contribution base unit

trend (beginning with the plan year ending April 30, 2021), which is equal to the trend that

the Pension Plan experienced over the 10 plan years ending April 30, 2019; and

• Exhibit IV projects the Pension Plan's solvency ratio using a 2.21% contribution base unit

trend (beginning with the plan year ending April 30, 2021), which is equal to the trend

assumed in Exhibit III reduced by one percentage point.

The assumed rates of return for Exhibits I and II are as shown below:

Plan Years Ending 

4/30:

Assumed Rates of Return Used For:

Section 4.02(1) of 

Rev. Proc. 2017-43 Exhibit I Exhibit II

2021-2029 6.50% 5.50% 4.50%

2030-2043 7.50% 6.50% 5.50%

2044-2048 7.30% 6.30% 5.30%

2049-2053 7.20% 6.20% 5.20%

2054+ 7.50% 6.50% 5.50%

The alternative rate of return assumptions above were assumed to first apply following the initial 

period. That is, the April 30, 2020 market value of plan assets is the same for all scenarios.

CPTF-DV000226
Hours (contribution base units) increased from 5,796,364 in plan year ending April 30, 2010 to 

7,953,779 in plan year ending April 30, 2019. This represents a compound annual increase of 3.21% 

per year for the 10-year period.

Based on the preceding calculation, the assumed work hours for Exhibits III and IV are as shown 

below:

Plan Year Ending 

4/30:

Assumed Work Hours Used For:

Section 4.02(1) of 

Rev. Proc. 2017-43 Exhibit III Exhibit IV

2021 8,000,000 8,472,6071 8,309,2212

2022 7,800,000 8,744,578 8,492,855

2023 7,000,000 9,025,279 8,680,547

2024 7,000,000 9,314,990 8,872,387

2025 7,000,000 9,614,002 9,068,466

2026+ 7,000,000 increases @3.21%/yr. increases @2.21%/yr.

The alternative work hours assumptions above were assumed to first apply following the initial 

period. That is, the April 30, 2020 market value of plan assets is the same for all scenarios.

 

1 Hours for plan year ending April 30, 2019 (7,953,779) increased by 3.21% for 2 years (compounded) 2 Hours for plan year ending April 30, 2019 (7,953,779) increased by 2.21% for 2 years (compounded)

CPTF-DV000227
Exhibit I – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using Assumed Rates of Return Reduced 

By One Percentage Point

The projected Solvency Ratio for Plan Years ending April 30, 2021 through April 30, 2044 using assumed rates of return reduced by 

one percentage point is shown below:

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2021 $779,361,598 $120,000,000 $36,159 $963,841 $143,894,673 $4,090,000 $42,122,809 $794,499,734 $938,394,407 6.52

4/30/2022 $794,499,734 $117,000,000 $36,159 $963,841 $143,994,631 $4,182,025 $42,867,627 $807,190,705 $951,185,336 6.61

4/30/2023 $807,190,705 $105,000,000 $36,159 $963,841 $147,266,205 $4,276,121 $43,143,075 $804,791,454 $952,057,659 6.46

4/30/2024 $804,791,454 $105,000,000 $36,159 $763,841 $150,817,500 $4,372,334 $42,905,310 $798,306,930 $949,124,430 6.29

4/30/2025 $798,306,930 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $154,549,465 $4,470,712 $42,439,201 $787,375,954 $941,925,419 6.09

4/30/2026 $787,375,954 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $158,109,270 $4,571,303 $41,737,337 $772,082,718 $930,191,988 5.88

4/30/2027 $772,082,718 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $161,466,157 $4,674,157 $40,801,066 $752,393,470 $913,859,627 5.66

4/30/2028 $752,393,470 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $164,796,000 $4,779,326 $39,623,694 $728,091,838 $892,887,838 5.42

4/30/2029 $728,091,838 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $167,932,887 $4,886,861 $38,197,883 $699,119,973 $867,052,860 5.16

4/30/2030 $699,119,973 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $170,726,967 $4,996,815 $43,165,400 $672,211,591 $842,938,558 4.94

4/30/2031 $672,211,591 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $173,081,923 $5,109,243 $41,336,166 $641,006,591 $814,088,514 4.70

4/30/2032 $641,006,591 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $174,950,557 $5,224,201 $39,243,374 $605,725,207 $780,675,764 4.46

4/30/2033 $605,725,207 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $176,333,890 $5,341,746 $36,901,305 $566,600,876 $742,934,766 4.21

4/30/2034 $566,600,876 $105,000,000 $12,056 $637,944 $177,313,332 $5,461,935 $34,322,486 $523,798,095 $701,111,427 3.95

4/30/2035 $523,798,095 $105,000,000 $7,236 $642,764 $177,725,931 $5,584,829 $31,522,901 $477,660,236 $655,386,167 3.69

4/30/2036 $477,660,236 $105,000,000 $7,236 $642,764 $177,706,404 $5,710,488 $28,520,491 $428,413,835 $606,120,239 3.41

4/30/2037 $428,413,835 $105,000,000 $7,236 $642,764 $177,204,527 $5,838,974 $25,331,610 $376,351,944 $553,556,471 3.12

4/30/2038 $376,351,944 $105,000,000 $3,618 $646,382 $176,248,098 $5,970,351 $21,974,402 $321,757,897 $498,005,995 2.83

4/30/2039 $321,757,897 $105,000,000 $0 $650,000 $174,668,716 $6,104,684 $18,472,753 $265,107,250 $439,775,966 2.52

4/30/2040 $265,107,250 $105,000,000 $0 $650,000 $172,948,591 $6,242,039 $14,841,901 $206,408,521 $379,357,112 2.19

4/30/2041 $206,408,521 $105,000,000 $0 $650,000 $170,586,543 $6,382,485 $11,098,685 $146,188,178 $316,774,721 1.86

Exhibit I – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using Assumed Rates of Return Reduced 

By One Percentage Point (Cont.)

CPTF-DV000228
Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2042 $146,188,178 $105,000,000 $0 $650,000 $167,975,233 $6,526,091 $7,264,564 $84,601,418 $252,576,651 1.50

4/30/2043 $84,601,418 $105,000,000 $0 $650,000 $164,888,742 $6,672,928 $3,356,963 $22,046,711 $186,935,453 1.13

4/30/2044 $22,046,711 $105,000,000 $0 $650,000 $161,317,987 $6,823,069 -$579,525 insolvent $120,294,117 0.75

CPTF-DV000229
Exhibit II – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using Assumed Rates of Return 

Reduced By 2 Percentage Points 

The projected Solvency Ratio for Plan Years ending April 30, 2021 through April 30, 2040 using assumed rates of return reduced by 2 

percentage points is shown below:

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2021 $779,361,598 $120,000,000 $36,159 $963,841 $143,894,673 $4,090,000 $34,464,117 $786,841,042 $930,735,715 6.47

4/30/2022 $786,841,042 $117,000,000 $36,159 $963,841 $143,994,631 $4,182,025 $34,728,872 $791,393,258 $935,387,889 6.50

4/30/2023 $791,393,258 $105,000,000 $36,159 $963,841 $147,266,205 $4,276,121 $34,587,994 $780,438,926 $927,705,131 6.30

4/30/2024 $780,438,926 $105,000,000 $36,159 $763,841 $150,817,500 $4,372,334 $34,008,480 $765,057,572 $915,875,072 6.07

4/30/2025 $765,057,572 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $154,549,465 $4,470,712 $33,226,762 $744,914,157 $899,463,622 5.82

4/30/2026 $744,914,157 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $158,109,270 $4,571,303 $32,237,949 $720,121,533 $878,230,803 5.55

4/30/2027 $720,121,533 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $161,466,157 $4,674,157 $31,044,437 $690,675,656 $852,141,813 5.28

4/30/2028 $690,675,656 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $164,796,000 $4,779,326 $29,642,085 $656,392,415 $821,188,415 4.98

4/30/2029 $656,392,415 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $167,932,887 $4,886,861 $28,026,339 $617,249,006 $785,181,893 4.68

4/30/2030 $617,249,006 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $170,726,967 $4,996,815 $32,021,666 $579,196,890 $749,923,857 4.39

4/30/2031 $579,196,890 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $173,081,923 $5,109,243 $29,860,947 $536,516,671 $709,598,594 4.10

4/30/2032 $536,516,671 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $174,950,557 $5,224,201 $27,458,986 $489,450,899 $664,401,456 3.80

4/30/2033 $489,450,899 $105,000,000 $36,159 $613,841 $176,333,890 $5,341,746 $24,829,094 $438,254,357 $614,588,247 3.49

4/30/2034 $438,254,357 $105,000,000 $12,056 $637,944 $177,313,332 $5,461,935 $21,983,045 $383,112,135 $560,425,467 3.16

4/30/2035 $383,112,135 $105,000,000 $7,236 $642,764 $177,725,931 $5,584,829 $18,935,497 $324,386,872 $502,112,803 2.83

4/30/2036 $324,386,872 $105,000,000 $7,236 $642,764 $177,706,404 $5,710,488 $15,702,688 $262,322,668 $440,029,072 2.48

4/30/2037 $262,322,668 $105,000,000 $7,236 $642,764 $177,204,527 $5,838,974 $12,299,425 $197,228,592 $374,433,119 2.11

4/30/2038 $197,228,592 $105,000,000 $3,618 $646,382 $176,248,098 $5,970,351 $8,741,940 $129,402,083 $305,650,181 1.73

4/30/2039 $129,402,083 $105,000,000 $0 $650,000 $174,668,716 $6,104,684 $5,051,221 $59,329,904 $233,998,620 1.34

4/30/2040 $59,329,904 $105,000,000 $0 $650,000 $172,948,591 $6,242,039 $1,240,777 insolvent $159,978,642 0.93

CPTF-DV000230
Exhibit III – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using a 3.21% Contribution Base Unit 

Trend

The projected Solvency Ratio for Plan Years ending April 30, 2021 through April 30, 2065 using a 3.21% contribution base unit trend

is shown below:

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2021 $779,361,598 $127,089,109 $36,159 $963,841 $143,894,673 $4,090,000 $50,011,898 $809,477,932 $953,372,605 6.63

4/30/2022 $809,477,932 $131,168,669 $36,159 $963,841 $143,994,631 $4,182,025 $52,095,806 $845,565,751 $989,560,382 6.87

4/30/2023 $845,565,751 $135,379,184 $36,159 $963,841 $147,266,205 $4,276,121 $54,468,972 $884,871,581 $1,032,137,786 7.01

4/30/2024 $884,871,581 $139,724,855 $36,159 $763,841 $150,817,500 $4,372,334 $57,040,041 $927,246,643 $1,078,064,143 7.15

4/30/2025 $927,246,643 $144,210,023 $36,159 $613,841 $154,549,465 $4,470,712 $59,810,827 $972,897,316 $1,127,446,781 7.30

4/30/2026 $972,897,316 $148,839,165 $36,159 $613,841 $158,109,270 $4,571,303 $62,809,605 $1,022,515,513 $1,180,624,783 7.47

4/30/2027 $1,022,515,513 $153,616,902 $36,159 $613,841 $161,466,157 $4,674,157 $66,077,622 $1,076,719,723 $1,238,185,880 7.67

4/30/2028 $1,076,719,723 $158,548,005 $36,159 $613,841 $164,796,000 $4,779,326 $69,649,519 $1,135,991,921 $1,300,787,921 7.89

4/30/2029 $1,135,991,921 $163,637,396 $36,159 $613,841 $167,932,887 $4,886,861 $73,562,173 $1,201,021,742 $1,368,954,629 8.15

4/30/2030 $1,201,021,742 $168,890,156 $36,159 $613,841 $170,726,967 $4,996,815 $89,844,745 $1,284,682,861 $1,455,409,828 8.52

4/30/2031 $1,284,682,861 $174,311,530 $36,159 $613,841 $173,081,923 $5,109,243 $96,230,103 $1,377,683,328 $1,550,765,251 8.96

4/30/2032 $1,377,683,328 $179,906,930 $36,159 $613,841 $174,950,557 $5,224,201 $103,340,581 $1,481,406,081 $1,656,356,638 9.47

4/30/2033 $1,481,406,081 $185,681,943 $36,159 $613,841 $176,333,890 $5,341,746 $111,280,068 $1,597,342,456 $1,773,676,346 10.06

4/30/2034 $1,597,342,456 $191,642,333 $12,056 $637,944 $177,313,332 $5,461,935 $120,157,574 $1,727,017,096 $1,904,330,428 10.74

4/30/2035 $1,727,017,096 $197,794,052 $7,236 $642,764 $177,725,931 $5,584,829 $130,093,781 $1,872,244,169 $2,049,970,100 11.53

4/30/2036 $1,872,244,169 $204,143,241 $7,236 $642,764 $177,706,404 $5,710,488 $141,219,926 $2,034,840,444 $2,212,546,848 12.45

4/30/2037 $2,034,840,444 $210,696,239 $7,236 $642,764 $177,204,527 $5,838,974 $153,674,386 $2,216,817,568 $2,394,022,095 13.51

4/30/2038 $2,216,817,568 $217,459,588 $3,618 $646,382 $176,248,098 $5,970,351 $167,607,235 $2,420,315,942 $2,596,564,040 14.73

4/30/2039 $2,420,315,942 $224,440,041 $0 $650,000 $174,668,716 $6,104,684 $183,185,570 $2,647,818,153 $2,822,486,869 16.16

4/30/2040 $2,647,818,153 $231,644,567 $0 $650,000 $172,948,591 $6,242,039 $200,577,759 $2,901,499,849 $3,074,448,440 17.78

4/30/2041 $2,901,499,849 $239,080,357 $0 $650,000 $170,586,543 $6,382,485 $219,966,039 $3,184,227,217 $3,354,813,760 19.67

Exhibit III – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using a 3.21% Contribution Base Unit 

Trend (Cont.)

CPTF-DV000231
Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments 6. Expenses

7. Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2042 $3,184,227,217 $246,754,837 $0 $650,000 $167,975,233 $6,526,091 $241,550,923 $3,498,681,653 $3,666,656,886 21.83

4/30/2043 $3,498,681,653 $254,675,667 $0 $650,000 $164,888,742 $6,672,928 $265,542,274 $3,847,987,924 $4,012,876,666 24.34

4/30/2044 $3,847,987,924 $262,850,756 $0 $650,000 $161,317,987 $6,823,069 $284,383,748 $4,227,731,372 $4,389,049,359 27.21

4/30/2045 $4,227,731,372 $271,288,265 $0 $650,000 $157,557,857 $6,976,588 $312,544,630 $4,647,679,822 $4,805,237,679 30.50

4/30/2046 $4,647,679,822 $279,996,618 $0 $650,000 $153,578,849 $7,133,561 $343,658,226 $5,111,272,256 $5,264,851,105 34.28

4/30/2047 $5,111,272,256 $288,984,510 $0 $650,000 $149,245,028 $7,294,066 $377,980,857 $5,622,348,529 $5,771,593,557 38.67

4/30/2048 $5,622,348,529 $298,260,913 $0 $650,000 $144,625,327 $7,458,182 $415,790,643 $6,184,966,576 $6,329,591,903 43.77

4/30/2049 $6,184,966,576 $307,835,088 $0 $650,000 $140,052,802 $7,625,991 $451,106,620 $6,796,879,491 $6,936,932,293 49.53

4/30/2050 $6,796,879,491 $317,716,594 $0 $650,000 $135,240,426 $7,797,576 $495,687,153 $7,467,895,236 $7,603,135,662 56.22

4/30/2051 $7,467,895,236 $327,915,297 $0 $650,000 $130,385,529 $7,973,021 $544,535,900 $8,202,637,883 $8,333,023,412 63.91

4/30/2052 $8,202,637,883 $338,441,378 $0 $650,000 $125,394,762 $8,152,414 $597,989,519 $9,006,171,604 $9,131,566,366 72.82

4/30/2053 $9,006,171,604 $349,305,346 $0 $650,000 $120,379,652 $8,335,843 $656,408,990 $9,883,820,445 $10,004,200,097 83.11

4/30/2054 $9,883,820,445 $360,518,048 $0 $650,000 $115,646,780 $8,523,399 $750,173,953 $10,870,992,267 $10,986,639,047 95.00

4/30/2055 $10,870,992,267 $372,090,677 $0 $650,000 $110,813,023 $8,715,175 $824,819,888 $11,949,024,634 $12,059,837,657 108.83

4/30/2056 $11,949,024,634 $384,034,788 $0 $650,000 $106,208,722 $8,911,266 $906,285,528 $13,124,874,962 $13,231,083,684 124.58

4/30/2057 $13,124,874,962 $396,362,304 $0 $650,000 $101,730,529 $9,111,769 $995,096,997 $14,406,141,965 $14,507,872,494 142.61

4/30/2058 $14,406,141,965 $409,085,534 $0 $650,000 $97,396,864 $9,316,784 $1,091,823,968 $15,800,987,819 $15,898,384,683 163.23

4/30/2059 $15,800,987,819 $422,217,180 $0 $650,000 $93,640,369 $9,526,412 $1,197,062,851 $17,317,751,069 $17,411,391,438 185.94

4/30/2060 $17,317,751,069 $435,770,352 $0 $650,000 $89,908,710 $9,740,756 $1,311,460,238 $18,965,982,193 $19,055,890,903 211.95

4/30/2061 $18,965,982,193 $449,758,580 $0 $650,000 $86,530,378 $9,959,923 $1,435,720,600 $20,755,621,072 $20,842,151,450 240.87

4/30/2062 $20,755,621,072 $464,195,830 $0 $650,000 $83,328,377 $10,184,021 $1,570,596,584 $22,697,551,088 $22,780,879,465 273.39

4/30/2063 $22,697,551,088 $479,096,516 $0 $650,000 $80,396,100 $10,413,161 $1,716,901,479 $24,803,389,822 $24,883,785,922 309.51

4/30/2064 $24,803,389,822 $494,475,515 $0 $650,000 $77,681,306 $10,647,457 $1,875,509,115 $27,085,695,689 $27,163,376,995 349.68

4/30/2065 $27,085,695,689 $510,348,179 $0 $650,000 $75,204,190 $10,887,025 $2,047,361,188 $29,557,963,841 $29,633,168,031 394.04

CPTF-DV000232
Exhibit IV – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using a 2.21% Contribution Base Unit 

Trend

The projected Solvency Ratio for Plan Years ending April 30, 2021 through April 30, 2065 using a 2.21% contribution base unit trend 

is shown below:

Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments

6. 

Expenses

7. 

Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2021 $779,361,598 $124,638,311 $36,159 $963,841 $143,894,673 $4,090,000 $49,932,247 $806,947,483 $950,842,156 6.61

4/30/2022 $806,947,483 $127,392,818 $36,159 $963,841 $143,994,631 $4,182,025 $51,808,612 $838,972,257 $982,966,888 6.83

4/30/2023 $838,972,257 $130,208,199 $36,159 $963,841 $147,266,205 $4,276,121 $53,872,338 $872,510,468 $1,019,776,673 6.92

4/30/2024 $872,510,468 $133,085,800 $36,159 $763,841 $150,817,500 $4,372,334 $56,020,799 $907,227,233 $1,058,044,733 7.02

4/30/2025 $907,227,233 $136,026,996 $36,159 $613,841 $154,549,465 $4,470,712 $58,243,617 $943,127,669 $1,097,677,134 7.10

4/30/2026 $943,127,669 $139,033,193 $36,159 $613,841 $158,109,270 $4,571,303 $60,555,884 $980,686,173 $1,138,795,443 7.20

4/30/2027 $980,686,173 $142,105,827 $36,159 $613,841 $161,466,157 $4,674,157 $62,984,605 $1,020,286,291 $1,181,752,448 7.32

4/30/2028 $1,020,286,291 $145,246,365 $36,159 $613,841 $164,796,000 $4,779,326 $65,549,043 $1,062,156,373 $1,226,952,373 7.45

4/30/2029 $1,062,156,373 $148,456,310 $36,159 $613,841 $167,932,887 $4,886,861 $68,269,478 $1,106,712,413 $1,274,645,300 7.59

4/30/2030 $1,106,712,413 $151,737,194 $36,159 $613,841 $170,726,967 $4,996,815 $82,128,309 $1,165,504,134 $1,336,231,101 7.83

4/30/2031 $1,165,504,134 $155,090,586 $36,159 $613,841 $173,081,923 $5,109,243 $86,570,913 $1,229,624,467 $1,402,706,390 8.10

4/30/2032 $1,229,624,467 $158,518,088 $36,159 $613,841 $174,950,557 $5,224,201 $91,434,085 $1,300,051,882 $1,475,002,439 8.43

4/30/2033 $1,300,051,882 $162,021,338 $36,159 $613,841 $176,333,890 $5,341,746 $96,791,230 $1,377,838,814 $1,554,172,704 8.81

4/30/2034 $1,377,838,814 $165,602,010 $12,056 $637,944 $177,313,332 $5,461,935 $102,718,289 $1,464,033,846 $1,641,347,178 9.26

4/30/2035 $1,464,033,846 $169,261,814 $7,236 $642,764 $177,725,931 $5,584,829 $109,300,078 $1,559,934,978 $1,737,660,909 9.78

4/30/2036 $1,559,934,978 $173,002,500 $7,236 $642,764 $177,706,404 $5,710,488 $116,628,959 $1,666,799,545 $1,844,505,949 10.38

4/30/2037 $1,666,799,545 $176,825,856 $7,236 $642,764 $177,204,527 $5,838,974 $124,801,179 $1,786,033,079 $1,963,237,606 11.08

4/30/2038 $1,786,033,079 $180,733,707 $3,618 $646,382 $176,248,098 $5,970,351 $133,921,178 $1,919,119,515 $2,095,367,613 11.89

4/30/2039 $1,919,119,515 $184,727,922 $0 $650,000 $174,668,716 $6,104,684 $144,106,633 $2,067,830,670 $2,242,499,386 12.84

4/30/2040 $2,067,830,670 $188,810,409 $0 $650,000 $172,948,591 $6,242,039 $155,472,417 $2,233,572,866 $2,406,521,457 13.91

4/30/2041 $2,233,572,866 $192,983,119 $0 $650,000 $170,586,543 $6,382,485 $168,142,868 $2,418,379,825 $2,588,966,368 15.18

Exhibit IV – Deterministic Projection of Solvency Ratio Recognizing Proposed Suspension and Using a 2.21% Contribution Base Unit 

Trend (Cont.)

CPTF-DV000233
Plan Year

Ending

1. Beginning

Assets

2. Employer

Contributions

3. EWL 

Payments

Prior 

Wthdrwls

4. EWL 

Payments 

Future 

Wthdrwls

5. Benefit 

Payments 6. Expenses

7. Investment

Income

8. Ending

Assets

9. Resources

(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)-

(6)+(7)

Solvency

Ratio

(9)/(5)

4/30/2042 $2,418,379,825 $197,248,046 $0 $650,000 $167,975,233 $6,526,091 $182,255,864 $2,624,032,411 $2,792,007,644 16.62

4/30/2043 $2,624,032,411 $201,607,228 $0 $650,000 $164,888,742 $6,672,928 $197,953,514 $2,852,681,483 $3,017,570,225 18.30

4/30/2044 $2,852,681,483 $206,062,747 $0 $650,000 $161,317,987 $6,823,069 $209,653,615 $3,100,906,789 $3,262,224,776 20.22

4/30/2045 $3,100,906,789 $210,616,734 $0 $650,000 $157,557,857 $6,976,588 $228,071,924 $3,375,711,002 $3,533,268,859 22.43

4/30/2046 $3,375,711,002 $215,271,364 $0 $650,000 $153,578,849 $7,133,561 $248,442,030 $3,679,361,986 $3,832,940,835 24.96

4/30/2047 $3,679,361,986 $220,028,861 $0 $650,000 $149,245,028 $7,294,066 $270,934,526 $4,014,436,279 $4,163,681,307 27.90

4/30/2048 $4,014,436,279 $224,891,499 $0 $650,000 $144,625,327 $7,458,182 $295,735,065 $4,383,629,334 $4,528,254,661 31.31

4/30/2049 $4,383,629,334 $229,861,601 $0 $650,000 $140,052,802 $7,625,991 $318,603,293 $4,785,065,435 $4,925,118,237 35.17

4/30/2050 $4,785,065,435 $234,941,542 $0 $650,000 $135,240,426 $7,797,576 $347,856,639 $5,225,475,614 $5,360,716,040 39.64

4/30/2051 $5,225,475,614 $240,133,751 $0 $650,000 $130,385,529 $7,973,021 $379,921,551 $5,707,822,366 $5,838,207,895 44.78

4/30/2052 $5,707,822,366 $245,440,706 $0 $650,000 $125,394,762 $8,152,414 $415,014,777 $6,235,380,673 $6,360,775,435 50.73

4/30/2053 $6,235,380,673 $250,864,946 $0 $650,000 $120,379,652 $8,335,843 $453,368,189 $6,811,548,313 $6,931,927,965 57.58

4/30/2054 $6,811,548,313 $256,409,061 $0 $650,000 $115,646,780 $8,523,399 $515,849,457 $7,460,286,652 $7,575,933,432 65.51

4/30/2055 $7,460,286,652 $262,075,702 $0 $650,000 $110,813,023 $8,715,175 $564,891,405 $8,168,375,561 $8,279,188,584 74.71

4/30/2056 $8,168,375,561 $267,867,575 $0 $650,000 $106,208,722 $8,911,266 $618,380,577 $8,940,153,725 $9,046,362,447 85.18

4/30/2057 $8,940,153,725 $273,787,448 $0 $650,000 $101,730,529 $9,111,769 $676,646,348 $9,780,395,223 $9,882,125,752 97.14

4/30/2058 $9,780,395,223 $279,838,151 $0 $650,000 $97,396,864 $9,316,784 $740,046,186 $10,694,215,912 $10,791,612,776 110.80

4/30/2059 $10,694,215,912 $286,022,574 $0 $650,000 $93,640,369 $9,526,412 $808,947,661 $11,686,669,366 $11,780,309,735 125.80

4/30/2060 $11,686,669,366 $292,343,673 $0 $650,000 $89,908,710 $9,740,756 $883,750,610 $12,763,764,183 $12,853,672,893 142.96

4/30/2061 $12,763,764,183 $298,804,468 $0 $650,000 $86,530,378 $9,959,923 $964,893,470 $13,931,621,820 $14,018,152,198 162.00

4/30/2062 $13,931,621,820 $305,408,047 $0 $650,000 $83,328,377 $10,184,021 $1,052,842,098 $15,197,009,567 $15,280,337,944 183.37

4/30/2063 $15,197,009,567 $312,157,564 $0 $650,000 $80,396,100 $10,413,161 $1,148,100,654 $16,567,108,524 $16,647,504,624 207.07

4/30/2064 $16,567,108,524 $319,056,247 $0 $650,000 $77,681,306 $10,647,457 $1,251,209,795 $18,049,695,803 $18,127,377,109 233.36

4/30/2065 $18,049,695,803 $326,107,390 $0 $650,000 $75,204,190 $10,887,025 $1,362,752,167 $19,653,114,145 $19,728,318,335 262.33

CPTF-DV000234
Pension Plan's Projection of 

Assets, Liabilities, and Funded Percentage

Exhibit I projects the Pension Plan's funded percentage using the value of plan assets and accrued 

liabilities during the extended period of May 1, 2020 through 2065. The projection includes the 

impact of benefit suspensions and is made on the same basis as Exhibit III of document 6.2 of 

Checklist Item #6. 

CPTF-DV000235
Exhibit I – Projections of Plan’s Market Value of Assets, Accrued Liability, and Funded Percentage for the period May 1, 2020 through 

2065 Recognizing Proposed Suspension

As of 

May 1,

1. Market 

Value of 

Assets

2. Unit Credit 

Accrued 

Liability

3. Funded 

Percentage

(1)/(2)

As of 

May 1,

1. Market 

Value of 

Assets

2. Unit Credit 

Accrued 

Liability

3. Funded 

Percentage

(1)/(2)

2020 $779,361,598 $1,974,144,559 39.48% 2043 $371,611,522 $1,535,822,327 24.20%

2021 $802,158,427 $1,994,963,134 40.21% 2044 $333,967,184 $1,488,430,764 22.44%

2022 $823,141,327 $2,012,611,494 40.90% 2045 $297,313,061 $1,441,222,531 20.63%

2023 $829,623,062 $2,026,330,245 40.94% 2046 $261,944,726 $1,394,455,627 18.78%

2024 $832,553,557 $2,036,572,886 40.88% 2047 $228,320,145 $1,348,559,149 16.93%

2025 $831,564,830 $2,043,038,646 40.70% 2048 $196,859,184 $1,303,910,560 15.10%

2026 $826,732,477 $2,045,496,388 40.42% 2049 $167,491,216 $1,260,559,064 13.29%

2027 $818,013,839 $2,043,903,157 40.02% 2050 $140,816,613 $1,218,871,307 11.55%

2028 $805,181,839 $2,037,938,588 39.51% 2051 $117,069,351 $1,179,019,449 9.93%

2029 $788,165,894 $2,027,548,187 38.87% 2052 $96,596,870 $1,141,296,702 8.46%

2030 $774,576,787 $2,012,723,216 38.48% 2053 $79,655,992 $1,105,884,269 7.20%

2031 $757,408,586 $1,993,697,424 37.99% 2054 $66,415,506 $1,072,671,292 6.19%

2032 $736,894,794 $1,970,672,014 37.39% 2055 $56,998,039 $1,041,930,487 5.47%

2033 $713,285,306 $1,943,919,151 36.69% 2056 $51,447,779 $1,013,606,741 5.08%

2034 $686,764,239 $1,913,618,698 35.89% 2057 $49,919,353 $987,755,128 5.05%

2035 $657,698,518 $1,880,168,161 34.98% 2058 $52,559,770 $964,412,176 5.45%

2036 $626,342,756 $1,843,816,212 33.97% 2059 $59,078,092 $943,165,488 6.26%

2037 $593,022,705 $1,804,867,947 32.86% 2060 $69,734,503 $924,144,792 7.55%

2038 $558,059,642 $1,763,638,848 31.64% 2061 $84,467,778 $907,153,499 9.31%

2039 $521,973,588 $1,720,648,640 30.34% 2062 $103,395,623 $892,160,172 11.59%

2040 $484,823,203 $1,675,922,776 28.93% 2063 $126,547,561 $879,036,121 14.40%

2041 $447,191,452 $1,630,041,781 27.43% 2064 $154,009,411 $867,697,536 17.75%

2042 $409,297,562 $1,583,186,795 25.85% 2065 $185,852,356 $858,031,188 21.66%

CPTF-DV000236