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# ARCONN E NATIONA L LABORATOR Y 970 0 SouT k

CAS S AVENUE , ARQCXNNE , IlliNoi s 6045 9 lelEpky * 512/972
- 8 4 3 0


### Februar y15 , 198 5

Dr . Gerhar d Winnek e Abteilun g fur Psychophysiologi c Medizinieche s Institu t fur Urawel t Hygien e na n de r Universita t Dusseldor f Gurlittstrass e 5 3 400 0 Dusseldorf , Federa l Republi c o f German y Dea r Dr . Winneke : I hav e bee n aske d b yth e peopl e i n the U.S . Environmenta l Protectio n Agency' s (EPA ) Offic e o f Ai r Qualit yPlanning an d Standard s t o tal k t o yo u abou t a n importan t matter . A s yo u ma

yknow , the EP Ai s charge d b yth e Clea n Ai r Ac t wit h settin g an d revising Nationa l Ambien t Ai r Qualit yStandard s (NAAQS ) fo r selecte d pollutants , a t level s sufficien t t o protec t the publi c healt h wit h a n adequat e margi n o f safety
. The scientifi c base s fo r thes e standard s ar e presente d an d reviewe d i n criteri a documents
. A s on e aspec t o f the revie w process , EP A assesse s healt h risk s b yidentifyin g th

e mos t sensitiv e population s fo r eac h pollutan t an

d estimatin g probabilisticall ythe number s o f peopl e in the popu lation s wh o ma

ysuffe r eac h o f variou s well-define d advers e healt h effect s attributabl e t o the pollutant
. I t i s believe d tha t informatio n abou t the healt h risk s associate d wit h variou s potentia l standard s wil l ai d th e EP A administrato r i n selecting a standard that , i n hi s judgment , protect s the publi c healt h wit h a n adequat e margi n o f safety
. Becaus e the ris k estimate s tha t EPAseek s ar e ofte n base d i n par t on dose-respons e relationship s an d lea d exposur e estimate s whic h ar e uncertain , i t i s necessar yt o mak e probabilit yjudgment s abou t relevan t dose-respons e function s base d on the availabl e evidenc e an d t o probabilisticall yestimat e lea d exposur e unde r alternativ e NAAQS . Obtaining the healt h ris k estimate s the n involve s combinin g dose-respons e an d exposur e probabilit yestimates
. Th e EP Abelieve s tha t i t i s importan t an d necessaryt o us e th e scien

tifi c judgment s o f th e bes t an

d mos t knowledgeabl e peopl e t o extrapolat e fro m the availabl e dat a t o th e neede d dose/respons e functions
. Th e extrapolatio n i s no t certai n an

d i t depend s on one' s interpretatio n o f th e literature
. Thus , differen t peopl e wil l have differen t judgments
. Fo r eac h healt h effec t we inten

d t o obtai n th

e probabilisti c judgment s o f fiv e peopl e t o sampl e the rang e o f respecte d opinions
. Th e mode l for estimating risk s wil l no t merg e thes e judgment s int o a singl e averag e judgment , but rathe r wil l estimat e the rang e o f risk s base d o n th e rang e o f judgments
. Thi s wil l show th e EP A administrato r a rang e o f ris k estimate s based o n a rang e o f judgments
. U' e wil l als o b

e abl e t o show som e o f th e source s o f th

e disagreements
. Indeed , a sid e benefi t tha t we expec t fro mthi s exercis e I s t o hel p identif ysource s o f greates t disagreement
.

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M M l \ I () l I M \» , \

I i | | UM \ I K's i I \ < > l (! ! II I V ,

< »P. 3

Dr . G . Winnek e 2 Februar y 15 , 198 5
Base d o

nthe evidence i nthe lead criteri a document , tw o population s hav e bee nidentifie d a s bein g mos t susceptible t o th e effect s o f lea

d intoxi cation . On e i s childre nfro m birt hthroug hche sevent hbirthda y an d th e othe r i s pregnan t wome nor , mor e precisely , the fetuse s bein g carrie d b y th e pregnan t women . A numbe r o f advers e healt heffect s hav e bee nidentifie d fo r whic hw

e woul d lik e t o estimat e dose-respons e functions . Because o f you r experienc e an d knowledg e o f lead an d it s possibl e neurologica l effects , w e woul d lik e to invit e yo u to wor k wit hu s o nthi s matte r an

d serve , i f yo u will , a s ananonymou s exper t specificall y o nlead induce d I Q decrement s amon g children .

Th e committmen t i n you r par t woul d b e to spen

d approximatel y

1-1/ 2 aay s wit hmysel f an

d Dr . To

m Wallste nfro

m th e Universit y

o f Nort hCarolina . We would , o f course , do the travelin g an d woul d lik e t o mee t wit hyou o ntw o occasion s i na 3-da y period . O

nth e firs t day

w e woul d familiariz e you wit h the proces s o f judgmenta l probabilit y encoding , discus s the relevan t liter atur e o

nlead healt heffects , obtai nyou r initia l judgments , an d explai nho w you r judgment s woul d b e use d i nthe ris k assessmen t process . Onthe second day , w e woul d refin e you r judgments . Th e firs t meetin g woul d requir e abou t 6 - 7 hour s o f you r time , an d the second meetin g woul d requir e abou t 2- 3 hours . Afte r returnin g t o the U.S. , w e woul d pu t togethe r a packe t o f infor matio nabou t you r judgment s an d sen d i t to yo u fo r you r revie w (an d revision , a s needed ) a s par t o f th e proces s o f finalizin g you r probabilisti c judgments . T o hel p yo u plan , i t i s ou r hop e t o b e abl e to visi t you som e tim e aroun d May

1 , 1985 . I t woul d probabl y b e bes t i f w

e coul d mee t wit hyou on Wednesday , Ma y

1 an d Friday , May

3 . Thi s woul d fi t nicel y wit hou r pla nt o visi t wit hDr . Yul e o f the U.K . o nMay 6 an d 8 . However , al l o f thi s depend s o nyou r an

d hi s availability . (Incidently , w e als o pla nto includ e Drs . Dietrich , Ernhart , an d Needlema no f the U.S . i nth e study . We hop e t o obtai n thei r judgment s befor e travelin g t o Europe. )

I f yo u agre e t o participat e i nthi s ver y importan t an

d ground-breakin g study , I wil l sen d yo u more infonnatio n abou t th e study , includin g the proto co l tha t we intend to us e to facilitat e the proces s o f obtainin g you r prob abilisti c judgments .

I woul d lik e to arrange a phon e cal l wit hyou soonto discus s thes e matters . Perhap s yo u coul d le t m

e know (vi a TELEX? ) o f some good day s an d time s o f the day

to cal l you . M

y TELE Xnumbe r i s TW X910-258-328 5 U S DOE-C H ARGN .P. 4



### Dr . G . Winneke Februar y 15 , 198 5 Al l of u

s sincerel y

hop e tha t yo u ca ntak e part i

nth e study . Your Judgment s ar

e important t

o th e U.S . EPA , an

d you r participatio

nwil l b

e greatl y appreciated . Sincerely ,

RGWrbf Ronal d G . Whitfi e Ph.D . Decisio nan d Syste m Science s Sectio

n Energ y an d Environmenta l System s Divisio n

bcc : T . D . Wolsk o T . Surle s J . Peerenboo m T . Wallste n