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APPENDIX B 

INFORMATION ON ACTUARIAL ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS 

Part 1 - Actuarial assumptions and methods used for cash flow projections 

1. Investment returns (deterministic only) 

Period Return

4/1/2017-3/31/2022 5.25%

4/1/2022-3/31/2027 6.00%

4/1/2027-3/31/2032 7.00%

4/1/2032 and later 7.25%

Rationale: 

The current asset allocation is very conservative since the Plan is projected to go insolvent by the Plan 

Year ending 3/31/2022, and is attempting to conserve capital. The cash flow analysis accompanying 

this application assumes the suspension and partition are approved and as a result the Trustees will 

change the asset allocation over time as the cash flows improve, allowing the Trustees to invest more 

aggressively, moving money from fixed income to stocks and alternative investments. See Part 2, 

Section 1 of this appendix for details regarding future asset allocations. 

Using the proposed asset allocations for the above described time periods we applied the return 

expectations from the Horizon Survey of Capital Market Assumptions 2016 Edition to determine a 

reasonable rate of return over the years by using the weighted average of the forward looking expected 

arithmetic return for each of the asset classes and adjusted such determination to reflect the variance of 

the entire portfolio to determine the forward looking expected geometric return as described in Section 

3.8.3j of ASOP 27. 

2. Mortality assumption 

Mortality 

Healthy 

Disabled 

RP-2014 healthy mortality with blue collar adjustment, separate for male and 

female participants, adjusted with mortality improvement Scale MP-2016 from 

2015. 

RP-2014 disabled mortality, separate for male and female participants, adjusted 

with mortality improvement Scale MP-2016 from 2015. 

Rationale: 

We recently took over as actuary and completed our first valuation as of 4/1/2015. We updated the 

mortality table at that time. The Plan population is not large enough to provide a credible mortality 

study. And, in our professional judgment, we believe that this group will exhibit standard mortality 

experience. Consequently, we are using the most current standard tables. 

3. Termination assumption 
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Sarason T-8 Table (less 51GAT M) 

Rationale: 

We are using a standard table, as the Plan population is not large enough to provide a credible 

termination study. We have compared the recent Plan experience to the Standard Table used and in 

our professional judgment, future experience is not expected to deviate from these tables. 

4. Disability assumption 

Pre-55 None 

55 and later 1987 CGDT 

Rationale: 

There is no Disability benefit prior to age 55 and we consider the termination assumption captures any 

disability experience prior to age 55. In our professional judgment, the Plan provisions are such that 

the disability benefit is not expected to impact cash flows or liabilities in an appreciable way. 

Consequently, we are using a standard table to estimate disability experience on or after age 55. 

5. Retirement assumption 

Percent Retiring 

Age Active

Terminated

Vested 

55 20% 20% 

56 5% 25% 

57 5% 25%

58 5% 25%

59 5% 25%

60 5% 25%

61 5% 25%

62 25% 25%

63 5% 25%

64 5% 25%

65 70% 100%

66 50% 100%

67+ 100% 100%

If the participant had at least 20 years of Credited Service as of April 1, 2009, there is a one-time 

additional retirement incidence of 60% when the participant reaches age 55 and at least 25 years of 

Credited Service. This additional incidence applies immediately for participants who are already age 

55 with 25 years of Credited Service. 

For active participants who terminate prior to retirement, it is assumed they will retire at age 58 (the 

weighted average age of terminated vested retirement). 
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Rationale: 

It is expected that a certain number of participants will retire early, and it is reasonable to assume 

anyone eligible for a subsidized early benefit would be more inclined to take it. Our assumption is 

based on our professional judgment and the historical information provided in Part 2, Sections 2.01 and 

2.02. 

6. Missing data 

Actives missing dates of birth are assume to be age 45. Terminated vesteds missing dates of birth are 

assumed to be age 50. Retirees and beneficiaries missing dates of birth are assumed to be age 70. 

Rationale: 

The assumption for actives and retirees assumes that missing dates of birth would only be an issue for 

newly active and retired participants. As a result, our assumption is slightly younger than the average 

participant in those categories. The terminated vested participants are assumed to be very near the 

average age of that category. 

7. Married percentage 

50% of the active and terminated vested population 

Rationale: 

Approximately 50% of the non-retired population for whom the marital status is known are married. 

8. Assumed form of benefit 

All unmarried participants take a life annuity. Married participants are assumed to take their benefits 

as shown below: 

Form Percent

100% J&S 60%

75% J&S 10%

50% J&S 30%

Total 100%

Rationale: 

Part 2, Section 2.05 provides the Plan’s recent experience regarding the selection of optional forms. In 

our professional judgment, future married participants will be more likely to choose the most generous 

joint & survivor form available under the implicit subsidy in the PBGC benefit guarantee. 

9. New entrant profile 

Entry 

Age Male Female Total 
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25 42% 3% 45%

35 14% 4% 18%

45 20% 3% 23%

55 10% 4% 14%

Total 86% 14% 100%

Rationale: 

Part 2, Section 4 provides the Plan’s recent experience regarding the age and gender of new entrants. 

In our professional judgment, we have no reason to believe future new entrants will significantly deviate 

from this experience. 

10. Projected average contribution rates 

The following assumed contributions are assuming the Plan’s application for a benefit suspension and 

partition is approved. 

The average contribution rates for the Plan Years ending 3/31/2018 and 3/31/2019 are based upon the 

current Rehabilitation Plan (RP) update. The average contribution rates for the Plan Years ending 

3/31/2020 and later assume 3% annual increases, which would be put in place by the contingent RP 

update as described in Section 2.e.2 of the current RP. 

Plan Year 

ending 3/31 

Monthly 

Contribution 

 Plan Year 

ending 3/31

Monthly 

Contribution

 Plan Year 

ending 3/31 

Monthly 

Contribution

2018 $315.78 2024 $375.32 2030 $448.15 

2019 323.75 2025 386.58 2031 461.59 

2020 333.47 2026 398.17 2032 475.44 

2021 343.47 2027 410.12 2033 489.70 

2022 353.77 2028 422.42 2034 504.40 

2023 $364.39 2029 $435.10 2035 $519.53 

Contribution Rates after 2035 are assumed to increase 3% per year. 

If the Plan’s application for Benefit Suspension and Partition is denied we are assuming the contribution 

rates will remain at their current level for all future years. 

Rationale: 

We assume 3% increases into the future if the suspension/partition application is approved because this 

is what the Trustees and bargaining parties have agreed to. We also find it reason able for an employer 

to step up contributions in an effort to save part of the pension. It is notable that the pension 

contribution rate is roughly 10% to 15% of the total wage package. While 3% might out pace general 

inflation it does not out pace historic wage inflation by much. So, the 3% only operates on a small 

portion of the total wage package and an even smaller portion of the total operational costs of the 

employers. We do not find this unreasonable and note how long medical inflation has out-paced general 

inflation with no apparent stop in sight.. 

 
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11. Projected contribution base units (months) 

Plan Year 

ending 3/31 

Expected 

Months 

 Plan Year 

ending 3/31

Expected 

Months 

2018 4,779 2024 4,610 

2019 4,750 2025 4,582 

2020 4,722 2026 4,555 

2021 4,694 2027 4,528 

2022 4,666 2028 4,501 

2023 4,638 

Months worked is assumed to remain at the 2028 level thereafter. 

Rationale: 

As indicated in Part 2, Section 5, the months projection assumes the smaller employers will drop out 

of the Fund over time, and that the two largest employers will be the only remaining ones. 

12. Withdrawal liability payments 

It is expected that YRC Worldwide, Center Candy, and Teamsters Local 810 will continue to pay their 

withdrawal liability assessments. We are assuming all other employers who leave in the future (i.e., 

everyone but HLA and Panasonic) will not pay their assessments, as described in Part 2 of this 

Appendix B. 

Rationale: 

As indicated in Part 2, Section 5, we anticipate future withdrawals will be due to employer bankruptcies 

and we do not anticipate any future withdrawn employers to pay their assessments. 

13. Administrative expenses 

We are assuming increased Plan expenses of $584,094 for the Plan Year ending 3/31/2018 due to the 

additional cost of the suspension and partition applications. Thereafter, expenses are assumed to be 

$448,800 for the Plan Year ending 3/31/2019, increasing 2% per year for an ongoing Plan limited to 

20% of the prior year’s benefit payments. 

Under a partition the expenses are allocated between the Original Plan and Successor Plan based on 

projected headcounts with PBGC premiums paid by the Original Plan for the first ten years after the 

partition. 

Under an insolvency, we assume there will be a reduction in expenses of approximately 20% due to the 

cessation of PBGC premiums and a reduction in professional fees, increasing 1.5% per year thereafter. 

Rationale: 

Our rationale for future expenses for an ongoing is based upon the expectation that the Plan and the 

PBGC will strive to limit the cost of expenses to not more than inflation. Under an insolvency, we 

assume the Plan’s need for professional fees will be reduced as a result of needing fewer professional 

services. 
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Part 2 - Supporting documentation for selection of certain assumptions. 

1. Investment returns 

The Plan’s investment policy is expected to change over time to reflect its need to grow its assets, rather 

than to solely preserve capital. The expected asset returns, standard deviations, and variance 

information in the tables shown in this Appendix B are based upon the information provided in the 

2016 Horizon Survey of Capital Market Assumptions. 

Expected Portfolio, 2019-2022 

Asset Class 

Portfolio 

Weight 

10-Year 

Geometric 

10-Year 

Arithmetic 

Standard 

Deviation 

US Equity- Large Cap 45.0% 6.64% 7.98% 16.92%

US Equity- Small/Mid Cap 0.0% 7.00% 9.07% 21.01%

Non-US Equity- Developed 0.0% 7.12% 8.90% 19.50%

Non-US Equity- Emerging 0.0% 8.48% 11.68% 26.35%

US Corporate Bonds- Core 42.0% 3.41% 3.59% 5.96%

US Corporate Bonds- Long Duration 0.0% 3.82% 4.37% 10.49%

US Corporate Bonds- High Yield 3.0% 5.90% 6.49% 11.01%

Non-US Debt- Developed 0.0% 2.43% 2.74% 7.58%

Non-US Debt- Emerging 0.0% 5.77% 6.42% 11.58%

US Treasuries (Cash equivalents) 0.0% 2.14% 2.22% 2.79%

TIPS (Inflation Protected) 0.0% 2.80% 3.03% 6.51%

Real Estate 10.0% 6.36% 7.48% 14.74%

Hedge Funds 0.0% 5.41% 5.77% 8.39%

Commodities 0.0% 3.98% 5.62% 18.50%

Infrastructure 0.0% 6.59% 7.52% 13.78%

Private Equity 0.0% 9.22% 11.77% 23.12%

 

Total Portfolio 100.0% 5.64% 6.04% 9.22%

 
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Expected Portfolio, 2023-2027 

Asset Class 

Portfolio 

Weight 

10-Year 

Geometric 

10-Year 

Arithmetic 

Standard 

Deviation 

US Equity- Large Cap 46.0% 6.64% 7.98% 16.92%

US Equity- Small/Mid Cap 5.0% 7.00% 9.07% 21.01%

Non-US Equity- Developed 6.0% 7.12% 8.90% 19.50%

Non-US Equity- Emerging 1.0% 8.48% 11.68% 26.35%

US Corporate Bonds- Core 17.0% 3.41% 3.59% 5.96%

US Corporate Bonds- Long Duration 0.0% 3.82% 4.37% 10.49%

US Corporate Bonds- High Yield 5.0% 5.90% 6.49% 11.01%

Non-US Debt- Developed 0.0% 2.43% 2.74% 7.58%

Non-US Debt- Emerging 0.0% 5.77% 6.42% 11.58%

US Treasuries (Cash equivalents) 0.0% 2.14% 2.22% 2.79%

TIPS (Inflation Protected) 0.0% 2.80% 3.03% 6.51%

Real Estate 16.0% 6.36% 7.48% 14.74%

Hedge Funds 4.0% 5.41% 5.77% 8.39%

Commodities 0.0% 3.98% 5.62% 18.50%

Infrastructure 0.0% 6.59% 7.52% 13.78%

Private Equity 0.0% 9.22% 11.77% 23.12%

 

Total Portfolio 100.0% 6.48% 7.14% 11.87%

 
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Expected Portfolio, 2028-2032 

Asset Class 

Portfolio 

Weight 

20-Year 

Geometric 

20-Year 

Arithmetic 

Standard 

Deviation 

US Equity- Large Cap 50.0% 7.89% 9.25% 16.92%

US Equity- Small/Mid Cap 5.0% 8.23% 10.40% 21.01%

Non-US Equity- Developed 5.0% 8.02% 9.77% 19.50%

Non-US Equity- Emerging 1.0% 9.11% 12.46% 26.35%

US Corporate Bonds- Core 15.0% 4.58% 4.75% 5.96%

US Corporate Bonds- Long Duration 0.0% 4.87% 5.58% 10.49%

US Corporate Bonds- High Yield 5.0% 6.81% 7.40% 11.01%

Non-US Debt- Developed 0.0% 3.70% 4.01% 7.58%

Non-US Debt- Emerging 0.0% 6.43% 7.20% 11.58%

US Treasuries (Cash equivalents) 0.0% 3.15% 3.18% 2.79%

TIPS (Inflation Protected) 0.0% 3.94% 4.27% 6.51%

Real Estate 15.0% 6.75% 7.75% 14.74%

Hedge Funds 4.0% 6.16% 6.59% 8.39%

Commodities 0.0% 4.84% 6.47% 18.50%

Infrastructure 0.0% 7.12% 8.26% 13.78%

Private Equity 0.0% 10.33% 12.94% 23.12%

 

Total Portfolio 100.0% 7.57% 8.27% 12.25%

 
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Expected Portfolio, 2033 and beyond 

Asset Class 

Portfolio 

Weight 

20-Year 

Geometric 

20-Year 

Arithmetic 

Standard 

Deviation 

US Equity- Large Cap 50.0% 7.89% 9.25% 16.92%

US Equity- Small/Mid Cap 5.0% 8.23% 10.40% 21.01%

Non-US Equity- Developed 9.0% 8.02% 9.77% 19.50%

Non-US Equity- Emerging 2.0% 9.11% 12.46% 26.35%

US Corporate Bonds- Core 15.0% 4.58% 4.75% 5.96%

US Corporate Bonds- Long Duration 0.0% 4.87% 5.58% 10.49%

US Corporate Bonds- High Yield 5.0% 6.81% 7.40% 11.01%

Non-US Debt- Developed 0.0% 3.70% 4.01% 7.58%

Non-US Debt- Emerging 0.0% 6.43% 7.20% 11.58%

US Treasuries (Cash equivalents) 0.0% 3.15% 3.18% 2.79%

TIPS (Inflation Protected) 0.0% 3.94% 4.27% 6.51%

Real Estate 10.0% 6.75% 7.75% 14.74%

Hedge Funds 4.0% 6.16% 6.59% 8.39%

Commodities 0.0% 4.84% 6.47% 18.50%

Infrastructure 0.0% 7.12% 8.26% 13.78%

Private Equity 0.0% 10.33% 12.94% 23.12%

 

Total Portfolio 100.0% 7.64% 8.39% 12.73%

The inflation inherent in the above portfolios is 2.2% over 10 years and 2.3% over 20 years (2016 

survey). 

The correlation of the above-cited asset classes are attached at the end of this Appendix B. 

The portfolio investment expenses, expressed as a percentage of assets under management, have been 

between 0.38% and 0.44% per annum for the four years ending 3/31/2017. 

 
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As of the date of this application, the asset mix is as follows: 

Asset Class 

Portfolio 

Weight 

US Equity- Large Cap 52.1%

US Equity- Small/Mid Cap 0.0%

Non-US Equity- Developed 0.0%

Non-US Equity- Emerging 0.0%

US Corporate Bonds- Core 34.1%

US Corporate Bonds- Long Duration 0.0%

US Corporate Bonds- High Yield 0.0%

Non-US Debt- Developed 0.0%

Non-US Debt- Emerging 0.0%

US Treasuries (Cash equivalents) 0.0%

TIPS (Inflation Protected) 0.0%

Real Estate 9.2%

Hedge Funds 4.6%

Commodities 0.0%

Infrastructure 0.0%

Private Equity 0.0%

Total Portfolio 100.0%

Our rationale for the changes in future asset allocations is based upon our discussions with the Trustees 

and their investment professionals who anticipate a shift to more risky, higher returning, asset classes 

as cash flow improves. 

The attached Exhibit B-1 provides the correlation of the above-listed asset classes. 

2. Demographic experience 

The following is the aggregate gain/loss experience 

Plan Year 

Ended 3/31 Assets Expense Demographic Total 

 2013 (2,264,932) 19,058 $(970,540) (3,216,414) 

 2014 477,351 (8,979) (1,034,657) (566,285) 

 2015 771,764 (118,898) (205,180) 447,686 

 2016 (2,631,820) 3,267 (2,846,548) (5,475,101) 

 2017 (3,531,066) (178,760) (1,942,980) (5,652,806) 

Average $(1,400,000)

We first became the Plan’s actuary in 2015 with the 3/31/2015 being our first valuation. Our review 

of the assumptions and the aggregate demographic experience has led us to the strengthening of 
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assumptions described below. We note that the average demographic loss for the last five years is 

modestly below 1% of the total liabilities. We also believe that the losses were generated by outdated 

mortality and retirement assumptions that have both since been updated as noted below. The 

strengthening of these assumptions has increased the liability by over 10%. Additionally, we believe 

some of the demographic loss in the last two years is generated by fear of both the Plan and PBGC 

going insolvent and would subside if this application is approved. 

Valuation 

3/31 Assumption Changes 

2015 The interest rate was changed from 7.50% to 6.75%. 

The mortality table was changed from 1983 Group Annuity Table, blended 50% male 

and female with no provision for future mortality improvement, to the following: 

Healthy: RP-2014 with blue collar adjustment with mortality improvement scale 

MP-2014 

Disabled: RP-2014 for disableds with mortality improvement scale MP-2014 

The expected expenses were increased from $410,000 per year to $440,000 per year. 

The liabilities were grossed up to include the defined contribution plan for certain 

YRCW participants. 

2016 The retirement assumption was change from: 

 Participants with 20 years of Credited Service as of April 1, 2009 are assumed 

to retire 3.25 years following 25 years of Credited Service for those credits 

accrued through March 31, 2005. The remaining credits accrued after April 1, 

2005 are assumed to be payable at age 55. 

 Participants with fewer than 20 years of Credited Service as of April 1, 2009 are 

assumed to retire upon age 65 and 5 Years of Participation. 

To the following table: 

Age 

Percent 

Retiring

55 20% 

56-61 5% 

62 25% 

63-64 5% 

65 70% 

66 50% 

67+ 100% 

If the participant had at least 20 years of Credited Service as of April 1, 2009, there is a 

one-time additional retirement incidence of 60% when the participant reaches age 55 

and at least 25 years of Credited Service. This additional incidence applies immediately 

for participants who are already age 55 with 25 years of Credited Service. 

The future service assumption was reduced from 5,910 months per year to 4,997 months, 

due to an employer withdrawal. 
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The assumed interest rate was changed from 6.75% per year to 6.50% 

2017 Changed the mortality improvement scale from Scale MP-2014 to MP-2016. 

The retirement age for actives who terminate prior to retirement was changed from age 

65 to age 58. 

The retirement assumption for terminated vested participants was changed from age 65 

to the following table: 

Age 

Percent 

Retiring

55 20% 

56-65 25% 

65+ 100% 

63-64 5% 

If the participant had at least 20 years of Credited Service as of April 1, 2009, there is a 

one-time additional retirement incidence of 60% when the participant reaches age 55 

and at least 25 years of Credited Service. This additional incidence applies immediately 

for participants who are already age 55 with 25 years of Credited Service. 

The future employment assumption was reduced from 4,997 units per year to 4,779 units 

per year, tapering down to 4,501 units per year over the next ten years 

Changed from 80% of actives and terminated vested participants to 50%. 

The tables below provide a summary of Plan experience regarding retirement and the selection of 

optional forms over the last five years. 

2.01 Retirement Experience 

Active 

All Retirements Only Those Eligible for 

 Subsidized Early 

Age 

(a) 

Retirement 

Eligible 

(b) 

Retired 

Ratio

b/a 

 (a) 

Retirement

Eligible 

(b) 

Retired 

Ratio 

b/a 

47 2 0 0% 2 0 0% 

48 3 0 0% 3 0 0% 

49 6 0 0% 6 0 0% 

50 11 1 9% 11 1 10% 

51 14 2 14% 14 1 7% 

52 10 1 20% 10 1 10% 

53 16 3 6% 16 3 20% 

54 11 0 9% 11 0 0% 
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Age 

(a) 

Retirement 

Eligible 

(b) 

Retired 

Ratio

b/a 

 (a) 

Retirement

Eligible 

(b) 

Retired 

Ratio 

b/a 

55 47 3 4% 12 1 8% 

56 42 0 2% 9 0 0% 

57 47 4 6% 10 1 10% 

58 37 1 5% 6 0 0% 

59 30 1 3% 6 0 0% 

60 28 1 4% 7 0 0% 

61 24 1 4% 8 0 0% 

62 26 2 4% 8 0 0% 

63 25 4 20% 8 0 0% 

64 27 6 19% 8 0 0% 

65 34 4 21% 

66 29 13 38% 

67 17 6 35% 

68 10 2 20% 

69 6 2 17% 

70 2 0 0% 

71 1 1 100% 

72 0 0 

73 0 0 

74 2 0 0% 

75 1 0 0% 

76 1 0 0% 

77 1 1 100% 

Total 

 
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Terminated Vested 

All Retirements Only Those Eligible for 

 Subsidized Early 

Age 

(a) 

Retirement 

Eligible 

(b) 

Retired 

Ratio

b/a 

 (a) 

Retirement

Eligible 

(b) 

Retired 

Ratio 

b/a 

50 2 0 0% 2 0 0% 

51 2 0 0% 2 0 0% 

52 4 2 40% 4 2 0% 

53 1 1 20% 1 1 33% 

54 3 1 33% 3 1 0% 

55 27 11 41% 0 0 

56 24 8 33% 1 1 100% 

57 17 5 29% 0 0 

58 15 2 13% 2 0 0% 

59 19 4 21% 3 0 0% 

60 24 9 38% 7 1 14% 

61 20 4 20% 7 0 0% 

62 23 3 13% 7 0 0% 

63 21 4 19% 5 0 0% 

64 20 5 25% 5 0 0% 

65 51 14 27% 

66 33 13 39% 

67 18 4 22% 

68 18 2 11% 

69 15 0 0% 

70 18 2 11% 

71 17 1 6% 

72 19 2 11% 

73 18 0 0% 

74 15 1 7% 

75 13 0 0% 

76 17 0 0% 

 
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2.02 Termination 

Age Count Terminated 

Ratio 

b/a Age Count Terminated 

Ratio 

b/a 

18-19 0 0 48-49 83 12 14.458%

19-20 4 3 75.000% 49-50 88 6 6.818%

20-21 15 2 13.333% 50-51 78 7 8.974%

21-22 10 4 40.000% 51-52 85 7 8.235%

22-23 24 10 41.667% 52-53 76 4 5.263%

23-24 22 8 36.364% 53-54 97 10 10.309%

24-25 55 8 14.545% 54-55 84 11 13.095%

25-26 38 9 23.684% 55-56 82 8 9.756%

26-27 44 23 52.273% 56-57 83 4 4.819%

27-28 39 8 20.513% 57-58 78 7 8.974%

28-29 43 9 20.930% 58-59 62 8 12.903%

29-30 49 9 18.367% 59-60 50 5 10.000%

30-31 47 12 25.532% 60-61 54 2 3.704%

31-32 54 11 20.370% 61-62 40 3 7.500%

32-33 50 9 18.000% 62-63 46 5 10.870%

33-34 46 7 15.217% 63-64 36 3 8.333%

34-35 53 10 18.868% 64-65 41 1 2.439%

35-36 64 12 18.750% 65-66 35 2 5.714%

36-37 41 5 12.195% 66-67 24 1 4.167%

37-38 47 2 4.255% 67-68 16 0 0.000%

38-39 63 14 22.222% 68-69 9 0 0.000%

39-40 55 7 12.727% 69-70 8 0 0.000%

40-41 44 6 13.636% 70-71 3 0 0.000%

41-42 61 7 11.475% 71-72 

42-43 69 9 13.043% 72-73 

43-44 66 6 9.091% 73-74 

44-45 78 14 17.949% 74-75 2 0 0.000%

45-46 74 10 13.514% 75-76 2 0 0.000%

46-47 75 10 13.333% 76-77 1 0 0.000%

47-48 85 4 4.706% 77-78 1 0 0.000%

 
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2.03 Martial Assumption 

The administrator has informed us that approximately 50% of the population, where marital 

status is known, are married. 

2.04 Selection of Optional Forms of Benefit 

J&S 

 50% 75% 100% Total 

Life 

Only Total 

Count 12 7 43 62 74 136 

Percentage 8.8% 5.1% 31.6% 45.6% 54.4% 100.0% 

We have not published a formal gain or loss study for this Plan. However, the pattern of gains and 

losses have led us to make certain assumption changes as detailed in our most recent actuarial report. 

3. Mortality assumptions 

We are using the blue collar RP-2014 table, published by the Society of Actuaries in the RP-2014 

Mortality Tables Report, available at: 

https://www.soa.org/Research/Experience-Study/pension/research-2014-rp.aspx. 

This table is being adjusted by Mortality Improvement Scale MP-2016, as detailed at 

https://www.soa.org/experience-studies/2016/mortality-improvement-scale-mp-2016/. 

4. New entrant profile 

For the past five years, new entrants have been distributed as follows: 

 Male Female

Under 20 1.8% 1.1% 

20-24 17.4% 2.5% 

25-29 15.2% 2.9% 

30-34 8.7% 4.0% 

35-39 5.4% 2.2% 

40-44 8.3% 3.3% 

45-49 11.2% 2.2% 

50-54 5.8% 1.4% 

55-59 4.3% 0.7% 

60+ 1.1% 0.4% 

There haven’t been any new entrants in the past five years with any significant prior service. Exhibit 

B-2 provides additional detail regarding this experience. 
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5. Contribution base units and employer withdrawals 

The following tables provide Contribution Base Units, Average Contribution Rate, and Total 

Contributions for employers that contributed at least 5% of the total contributions made for the Plan 

Years since 2009. 

Rose Trucking Co. 

Plan 

Year 

Ending 3/31 

Contribution

Base Units 

Average 

Contribution

Rate 

Total 

Contributions 

2009 403 $ 166.67 $ 67,168 

2010 402 166.67 67,001 

2011 400 $ 166.92 $ 66,768 

Rose Trucking Co. did not contribute to the Fund for Plan Years ending 3/31/2012 and after. 

White Rose Trucking 

Plan 

Year 

Ending 3/31 

Contribution

Base Units 

Average 

Contribution

Rate 

Total 

Contributions 

2009 920 $ 164.31 $ 151,166 

2010 919 166.67 153,166 

2011 919 171.87 157,945 

2012 783 200.22 156,769 

2013 850 207.27 176,178 

2014 740 284.66 210,648 

2015 449 $ 335.19 $ 150,500 

White Rose Trucking did not contribute to the Fund for Plan Years ending 3/31/2016 and after. 

YRCW 

Plan 

Year 

Ending 3/31 

Contribution

Base Units 

Average 

Contribution

Rate 

Total 

Contributions 

2009 760 $ 134.69 $ 102,364 

YRCW did not contribute to the Fund for Plan Years ending 3/31/2010 and after. 

Harold Levinson Associates 

Plan 

Year 

Ending 3/31 

Contribution

Base Units 

Average 

Contribution

Rate 

Total 

Contributions 

2009 3,839 $ 135.03 $ 518,387 

2010 3,876 135.02 523,328 

2011 3,508 159.65 560,036 

2012 3,508 221.31 776,347 

2013 3,333 291.63 971,994 

2014 3,494 299.77 1,047,392 

2015 4,115 291.61 1,199,976 

2016 4,075 294.69 1,200,862 
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2017 4,105 $ 302.30 $ 1,240,942 

Panasonic 

Plan 

Year 

Ending 3/31 

Contribution

Base Units 

Average 

Contribution

Rate 

Total 

Contributions 

2009 761 $ 285.82 $ 217,507 

2010 488 292.83 142,899 

2011 386 319.98 123,513 

2012 360 351.88 126,677 

2013 351 351.99 123,550 

2014 321 350.00 112,350 

2015 361 353.32 127,550 

2016 357 380.56 135,860 

2017 363 $ 381.98 $ 138,659 

As shown in exhibit 6.04 of the application, the Plan has experienced a decline in contribution base 

units, generally as a result of employer bankruptcies or other withdrawals. In an attempt to right the 

Plan’s funding, contribution rates have increased during that period. 

Future contribution base units are assumed to decline over the next 10 years as the smaller employers 

drop out. Our rationale is that this is due to the conditions described in Section 5 of the application. It 

is anticipated that after 10 years, only the two largest employers will remain. Further, our rationale for 

not anticipating receiving any withdrawal liability payments from these smaller employers is for those 

same business reasons as listed in Section 5. 

Future contribution rates are based on the provisions of the Rehabilitation Plan. 

The Plan had six employer withdrawals in the past five years. Of those, YRCW, Center Candy, and 

Teamsters Local 810 are currently making their payments and are expected to continue to do so. The 

remaining three, Rose Trucking, White Rose, and Gutlove and Shirvint are bankrupt and no recovery 

is currently expected. 

6. Take-up rate with respect to selection of benefit/contribution schedules 

All employers are contributing under the Preferred Schedule of the Rehabilitation Plan. 

7. Projection methodology 

All the projections were generated by our valuation software with no modification. 

 
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Part 3 – Additional disclosures relating to use of different assumptions 

The assumptions for the purposes of the cash flow projections provided under Revenue Procedure 2017-

43, Section 4.02(1) differ from those provided under Revenue Procedure 2017-43, Section 3.01 (the 

assumptions used to determine the certification of Zone status under IRC §432(b)(3)(A)) as shown 

below. The rationale for these changes are that while we believe for the purpose of liability 

measurements for determination of the Plan Zone Status the assumptions used in Section 3.01 are 

reasonable however for the purpose of cash flow measurement we believe the refined assumptions used 

in Section 4.02(1) are more appropriate and reasonable. 

Section 3.01 

(Zone Certification) 

 Section 4.02(1) 

(Cash Flow Projections) 

Market 

Asset 

Returns 

6.50% 

 Period Return 

4/1/2017-3/31/2022 5.25% 

4/1/2022-3/31/2027 6.00% 

4/1/2027-3/31/2032 7.00% 

4/1/2032 and later 7.25% 

 

Terminated 

Vested 

Retirement 

Age 

65 

 

Age 

Percent 

Retiring 

55 20% 

56-64 25% 

65+ 100% 

 

Mortality 

Scale 

Scale MP-2014 Scale MP-2016 

Employment 4,997 months 

 annually 

 Plan Year 

ending 

3/31 

Expected 

Months 

 Plan Year 

ending 

3/31 

Expected 

Months 

2018 4,750 2023 4,610 

2109 4,722 2024 4,582 

2020 4,694 2025 4,555 

2021 4,666 2026 4,528 

2022 4,638 2027+ 4,501 

 

Married 

Percentage 

80% 50% 

Optional 

Form 

Selection 

All married 

participants 

elect a 50% 

joint & survivor 

 Married participants elect a form of benefit as 

follows: 

Form Percent 

100% J&S 60% 

75% J&S 10% 

50% J&S 30% 

Total 100%