ii

CONTENTS

Section Page

Executive Summary..............................................................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

ES.1 Key Findings......................................................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

ES.1.1 Health Co-Benefits.................................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined.4

ES.1.2 Welfare Co-Benefits...............................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined.5

ES.2 Not All Benefits Quantified.............................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined.10

ES.3 Costs and Employment Impacts.....................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined.15

ES.4 Small Entity and Unfunded Mandates ImpactsES-Error! Bookmark not defined.16

ES.5 Limitations and Uncertainties........................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined.17

ES.6 References......................................................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined.21

1 Introduction and Background...................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.1-1

1.1 Introduction ........................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.1-1

1.2 Background for Final Mercury and Air Toxics StandardsError! Bookmark not defined.1-2

1.2.1 NESHAP ................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.1-2

1.2.2 NSPS ........................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.1-4

1.3 Appropriate & Necessary Analyses..................... Error! Bookmark not defined.1-4

1.4 Provisions of the Final Mercury and Air Toxics StandardsError! Bookmark not defined.1-5

1.4.1 What Is the Source Category Regulated by the Final Rule?Error! Bookmark not defined.1

1.4.2 What Are the Pollutants Regulated by the Rule?Error! Bookmark not defined.1-6

1.4.3 What Are the Emissions Limits? ............. Error! Bookmark not defined.1-6

1.4.4 What are the Startup, Shutdown, and Malfunction Requirements?Error! Bookmark not d

1.5 Baseline and Years of Analysis.......................... Error! Bookmark not defined.1-12

1.6 Benefits of Emission Controls........................... Error! Bookmark not defined.1-13
iii

1.7 Cost of Emission Controls ................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.1-14

1.8 Organization of the Regulatory Impact AnalysisError! Bookmark not defined.1-14

1.9 References......................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.1-15

2 Electric Power Sector Profile........................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.2-1

2.1 Introduction ........................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.2-1

2.2 Power Sector Overview....................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.2-1

2.2.1 Generation .............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.2-2

2.2.2 Transmission ........................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.2-5

2.2.3 Distribution ............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.2-6

2.3 Deregulation and Restructuring ......................... Error! Bookmark not defined.2-6

2.4 Emissions of Mercury and Other Hazardous Air Pollutants from Electric 

Utilities............................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.2-7

2.5 Pollution Control Technologies........................... Error! Bookmark not defined.2-9

2.6 HAP Regulation in the Power Sector ................ Error! Bookmark not defined.2-11

2.6.1 Programs Targeting HAP.......................... Error! Bookmark not defined.2-11

2.6.2 Programs Targeting SO2 and NOx ............ Error! Bookmark not defined.2-12

2.7 Revenues, Expenses, and Prices ....................... Error! Bookmark not defined.2-14

2.7.1 Natural Gas Market............................... Error! Bookmark not defined.2-18

2.8 Electricity Demand and Demand Response...... Error! Bookmark not defined.2-19

2.9 References ........................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.2-20

3 Cost, Economic, and Energy Impacts........................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3-1

3.1 Background ......................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3-2

3.2 Projected Emissions.......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3-10

3.3 Projected Compliance Costs............................. Error! Bookmark not defined.3-14

3.4 Projected Compliance Actions for Emissions ReductionsError! Bookmark not defined.3-15

3.5 Projected Generation Mix................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.3-17
iv

3.6 Projected Withdrawals from Service................ Error! Bookmark not defined.3-18

3.7 Projected Capacity Additions............................ Error! Bookmark not defined.3-20

3.8 Projected Coal Production for the Electric Power SectorError! Bookmark not defined.3-21

3.9 Projected Retail Electricity Prices..................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3-23

3.10 Projected Fuel Price Impacts........................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3-25

3.11 Key Differences in EPA Model Runs for MATS ModelingError! Bookmark not defined.3-27

3.12 Projected Primary PM Emissions from Power PlantsError! Bookmark not defined.3-28

3.13 Illustrative Dry Sorbent Injection Sensitivity... Error! Bookmark not defined.3-28

3.14 Additional Compliance Costs Analyzed for Covered UnitsError! Bookmark not defined.3-29

3.14.1 Compliance Cost for Oil-Fired Units...... Error! Bookmark not defined.3-29

3.14.2 Monitoring, Reporting and Record-keeping CostsError! Bookmark not defined.3-30

3.14.3 Total Costs Projected for Covered Units under MATSError! Bookmark not defined.3-30

3.15 Limitations of Analysis..................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3-31

3.16 Significant Energy Impact................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.3-35

3.17 References....................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3-35

Appendix 3A Compliance costs for oil-fired electric generating unitsError! Bookmark not defined.3A-1

3A.1 Methodology and Assumptions...................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3A-1

3A.1.1 Base Case............................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3A-1

3A.1.2 Policy Case ............................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.3A-3

3A.1.3 Cost Sensitivities Related to Mandatory Natural Gas CurtailmentError! Bookmark not def

3A.2 Results................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.3A-5

3A.3 References....................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.3A-7

4 Mercury and other HAP Benefits Analysis................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

4.1 Introduction ........................................................ 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.2

4.2 Impact of Mercury on Human Health................. 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.5
v

4.2.1 Introduction ............................................ 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.5

4.2.2 Neurologic Effects................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.6

4.2.3 Cardiovascular Impacts........................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.6

4.2.4 Genotoxic Effects.................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.6

4.2.5 Immunotoxic Effects............................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.7

4.2.6 Other Human Toxicity Data .................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.7

4.3 Impact of Mercury on Ecosystems and Wildlife . 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.7

4.3.1 Introduction ............................................ 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.7

4.3.2 Effects on Fish ......................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.8

4.3.3 Effects on Birds ....................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.9

4.3.4 Effects on Mammals ............................. 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.10

4.4 Mercury Risk and Exposure Analyses—Data Inputs and Assumptions4-Error! Bookmark not defin

4.4.1 Introduction .......................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.11

4.4.2 Data Inputs............................................ 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.11

4.4.3 Mercury Concentrations in Freshwater Fish4-Error! Bookmark not defined.15

4.5 Linking Changes in Modeled Mercury Deposition to Changes in Fish Tissue 

Concentrations................................................ 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.18

4.5.1 Introduction .......................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.18

4.5.2 Use of Mercury Maps to Project Changes in Fish Tissue 

Concentrations...................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.18

4.5.3 The Science of Mercury Processes and Variability in Aquatic 

Ecosystems............................................ 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.23

4.5.4 Summary ............................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.31

4.6 Analysis of the Dose-Response Relationship Between Maternal Mercury 

Body Burden and Childhood IQ....................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.32

4.6.1 Introduction .......................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.32

4.6.2 Epidemiological Studies of Mercury and Neurodevelopmental 

Effects.................................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.34

4.6.3 Statistical Analysis................................. 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.35

4.6.4 Strengths and Limitations of the IQ Dose-Response Analysis4-Error! Bookmark not define

4.6.5 Possible Confounding from Long-Chained Polyunsaturated Fatty 

Acids...................................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.39

4.7 Mercury Benefits Analysis Modeling Methodology4-Error! Bookmark not defined.40

4.7.1 Introduction .......................................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.40
vi

4.7.2 Estimation of Exposed Populations and Fishing Behaviors4-Error! Bookmark not defined.

4.7.3 Estimation of Lost Future Earnings....... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.47

4.8 Mercury Benefits and Risk Analysis Results...... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.50

4.8.1 Baseline Incidence ................................ 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.50

4.8.2 IQ Loss and Economic Valuation Estimates4-Error! Bookmark not defined.56

4.8.3 Primary Results for National Analysis of Exposures from 

Recreational Freshwater Fish Consumption4-Error! Bookmark not defined.57

4.8.5 Discussion of Assumptions, Limitations, and Uncertainties4-Error! Bookmark not defined

4.8.6 Overall Conclusions............................... 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.68

4.9 Benefits Associated with Reductions in Other HAP than Mercury4-Error! Bookmark not defined.

4.9.1 Hazards.................................................. 4-Error! Bookmark not defined.75

4.10 References...........................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.81

4A Analysis of Trip Travel Distance for Recreational Freshwater Anglers4A-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

4A.1 Data ..................................................................................................................4A-1

4A.2 Analysis of Travel Distance Data ..................... 4A-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

4A.3 Summary Results Applied in the Population Centroid Approach4A-Error! Bookmark not defined

5 Health and Welfare Co-Benefits.................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.5-1

Synopsis........................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.5-1

5.1 Overview ............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.5-3

5.2 Benefits Analysis Methods................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.5-11

5.2.1 Health Impact Assessment.................... Error! Bookmark not defined.5-12

5.2.2 Economic Valuation of Health Impacts. Error! Bookmark not defined.5-13

5.2.3 Adjusting the Results of the PM2.5 co-benefits Analysis to Account 

for the Emission Reductions in the Final Mercury and Air Toxics 

Standards.............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.5-15

5.3 Uncertainty Characterization............................ Error! Bookmark not defined.5-18

5.4 Benefits Analysis Data Inputs............................ Error! Bookmark not defined.5-22

5.4.1 Demographic Data ................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.5-22
vii

5.4.2 Effect Coefficients................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.5-23

5.4.3 Baseline Incidence Estimates................ Error! Bookmark not defined.5-38

5.4.4 Economic Valuation Estimates.............. Error! Bookmark not defined.5-41

5.4.5 Hospital Admissions Valuation ............. Error! Bookmark not defined.5-51

5.5 Unquantified Health and Welfare Benefits ...... Error! Bookmark not defined.5-61

5.5.1 Visibility Valuation ................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.5-61

5.5.2 Ecosystem Services............................... Error! Bookmark not defined.5-68

5.5.3 Ecosystem Benefits of Reduced Nitrogen and Sulfur DepositionError! Bookmark not defin

5.5.4 Ecological Effects Associated with Gaseous Sulfur DioxideError! Bookmark not defined.5-

5.5.5 Nitrogen Enrichment............................. Error! Bookmark not defined.5-80

5.5.6 Benefits of Reducing Ozone Effects on Vegetation and EcosystemsError! Bookmark not d

5.5.7 Unquantified SO2 and NO2-Related Human Health BenefitsError! Bookmark not defined.5

5.6 Social Cost of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Co-BenefitsError! Bookmark not defined.5-90

5.7 Co-Benefits Results........................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.5-94

5.8 Discussion........................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.5-105

5.9 References ...................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.5-106

5A Impact of the Interim Policy Scenario on Emissions.. 5A-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

5A.1 Introduction..................................................... 5A-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

5A.2 Overview of Modeling Platform and Emissions Processing Performed5A-Error! Bookmark not de

5A.3 Development of 2005 Base Year Emissions.... 5A-Error! Bookmark not defined.2

5A.4 Development of Future year baseline Emissions5A-Error! Bookmark not defined.9

5A.5 Development of Future Year Control Case Emissions for Air Quality 

Modeling........................................................ 5A-Error! Bookmark not defined.21

5B Impact of the Interim Policy Scenario on Air Quality 5B-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

5C Health and Welfare Co-Benefits of the Modeled Interim Policy Scenario................. 5C-1

5D PM2.5 Co-Benefits of the Final Rule by State..............5D-Error! Bookmark not defined.1
viii

5D.1 Introduction...........................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.1

5D.2 Methods ................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.1

5D.3 Limitations and uncertainties................................Error! Bookmark not defined.2

5D.4 Results ...................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.2

5E Summary of Expert Opinions on the Existence of a Threshold in the 

Concentration-Response Function for PM2.5-related Mortality5E-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

6 Employment and Economic Impact Analysis................................................................ 6-1

6.1 Employment Impacts for the MATS ................................................................... 6-1

6.2 Employment Impacts Primarily on the Regulated Industry: Morgenstern, 

Pizer, and Shih (2002)......................................................................................... 6-2

6.2.1 Limitations................................................................................................ 6-5

6.3 Employment Impacts of the MATS-Environmental Protection Sector 

Approach by 2015 .............................................................................................. 6-7

6.3.1 Overall Approach and Methodology for Environmental Protection 

Sector Approach....................................................................................... 6-8

6.3.2 Summary of Employment Estimates from Environmental 

Protection Sector Approach..................................................................... 6-9

6.3.3 Other Employment Impacts of MATS .................................................... 6-10

6.4 Summary of Employment Impacts................................................................... 6-11

6.5 Potential Effect of Electricity Price Increase on Downstream Sectors............. 6-12

6.5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 6-12

6.5.2 Bureau of Economic Analysis Benchmark Input-Output Accounts ....... 6-13

6.5.3 Upper-bound Increase in Per Unit Production Expenses from 

Electricity Purchases.............................................................................. 6-14

6.5.4 Limitations.............................................................................................. 6-19

6.5.5 Impacts of Electricity Price Induced Changes in Production Costs 

on Employment in Downstream Sectors............................................... 6-20

6.6 Alternative Approach to Estimating Social Cost and Economic Impacts......... 6-20

6.7 References........................................................................................................ 6-22
ix

6A Employment Estimates of Direct Labor in Response to the Mercury and Air 

Toxics Standards in 2015 ............................................................................................6A-1

6A.1 Overall Approach..............................................................................................6A-2

6A.1.1 Employment Changes due to New Pollution Control Equipment .........6A-3

6A.1.2 Results....................................................................................................6A-6

6A.2 Results Summary............................................................................................6A-11

6A.3 Detailed Methodology....................................................................................6A-11

6A.3.1 Pollution Control Equipment Labor.....................................................6A-11

6A.3.2 Retirement Labor................................................................................6A-13

6A.3.3 Fuel Use Labor......................................................................................6A-14

6A.4 References......................................................................................................6A-16

6B Potential Effect of Electricity Price Increase on Average Production Expenses, 

Detailed Results.......................................................................................................... 6B-1

7 Statutory and Executive Order Analyses ..................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

7.1 Introduction ........................................................ 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.2

7.2 Executive Order 12866: Regulatory Planning and Review and Executive 

Order 13563, Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review7-Error! Bookmark not defined.2

7.3 Paperwork Reduction Act................................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.4

7.4 Final Regulatory Flexibility Analysis.................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.5

7.4.1 Reasons Why Action Is Being Taken .......... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.5

7.4.2 Statement of Objectives and Legal Basis for Final Rules7-Error! Bookmark not defined.6

7.4.3 Summary of Issues Raised during the Public Comment Process on 

the IRFA................................................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.6

 7.4.4 Description and Estimate of the Affected Small Entities7-Error! Bookmark not defined.13

7.4.5 Compliance Cost Impacts......................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.14

7.4.6 Description of Steps to Minimize Impacts on Small Entities7-Error! Bookmark not defined.1

7.5 Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA) Analysis7-Error! Bookmark not defined.21

7.5.1 Identification of Affected Government Entities7-Error! Bookmark not defined.22

7.5.2 Compliance Cost Impacts......................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.22
x

7.6 Executive Order 13132, Federalism.................. 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.26

7.7 Executive Order 13175, Consultation and Coordination with Indian Tribal 

Governments................................................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.27

7.8 Protection of Children from Environmental Health and Safety Risks7-Error! Bookmark not define

7.9 Statement of Energy Effects ............................. 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.28

7.10 National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act7-Error! Bookmark not defined.29

7.11 Environmental Justice ..................................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.35

7.11.1 Environmental Justice Impacts............. 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.35

7.11.2 Analysis of High Risk Sub-Populations.. 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.42

7.11.3 Characterizing the Distribution of Health Impacts across 

Populations........................................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.51

7.12 Congressional Review Act ............................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.56

7.13 References....................................................... 7-Error! Bookmark not defined.57

8 Comparison of Benefits and Costs................................................................................ 8-1

8.1 Comparison of Benefits and Costs ..................................................................... 8-1

8.2 References.......................................................................................................... 8-3
xi

LIST OF FIGURES

Number Page

ES-1. Economic Value of Estimated PM2.5-Related Health Co-Benefits According to 

Epidemiology or Expert-Derived PM Mortality Risk Estimate....................................... ES-8

ES-2. Net Benefits of the MATS Rule According to PM2.5 Epidemiology or ExpertDerived Mortality Risk Estimate .................................................................................... ES-9

2-1. Fossil Fuel-Fired Electricity Generating Facilities, by Size ............................................... 2-4

2-2. Status of State Electricity Industry Restructuring Activities............................................ 2-6

2-3. National Average Retail Electricity Price (1960–2009).................................................. 2-16

2-4. Average Retail Electricity Price by State (cents/kWh), 2009......................................... 2-16

2-5. Natural Gas Spot Price, Annual Average (Henry Hub)................................................... 2-17

2-6. Electricity Growth Rate (3 Year Rolling Average) and Projections from the Annual 

Energy Outlook 2011 ..................................................................................................... 2-18

3-1. Geographic Distribution of Affected Units, by Facility, Size and Fuel Source in 

2012 ................................................................................................................................. 3-8

3-2. SO2 Emissions from the Power Sector in 2015 with and without MATS....................... 3-11

3-3. NOX Emissions from the Power Sector in 2015 with and without MATS ...................... 3-11

3-4. Mercury Emissions from the Power Sector in 2015 with and without MATS ............... 3-12

3-5. Hydrogen Chloride Emissions from the Power Sector in 2015 with and without 

MATS.............................................................................................................................. 3-13

3-6. Operating Pollution Control Capacity on Coal-fired Capacity (by Technology) with 

the Base Case and with MATS, 2015 (GW).................................................................... 3-15

3-7. Generation Mix with the Base Case and with MATS, 2015-2030.................................. 3-17

3-8. Total Coal Production by Coal-Producing Region, 2007 (Million Short Tons)............... 3-22

3-9. Retail Price Model Regions............................................................................................ 3-25

3A-1. 2006-2010 Heat Input Apportioned by Fuel for Oil-Fired Units Subject to 

Mandatory Natural Gas Curtailment.............................................................................3A-2

4-1. Spatial and Biogeochemical Factors Influencing MeHg Production.............................. 4-26

4-2. Preliminary USGS Map of Mercury Methylation–Sensitive Watersheds Derived 

from More Than 55,000 Water Quality Sites aqnd 2,500 Watersheds (Myers 

et al., 2007) .................................................................................................................... 4-27
xii

4-3. Methodology for Estimating and Linking Exposed Populations and Levels of 

Mercury Exposure.......................................................................................................... 4-40

4-4. Linking Census Tracts to Demographic Data and Mercury Fish Tissue Samples........... 4-42

4-5. Estimated Chronic Census Tract Carcinogenic Risk from HAP Exposure from 

Outdoor Sources (2005 NATA)....................................................................................... 4-70

4-6. Estimated Chronic Census Tract Noncancer (Respiratory) Risk from HAP Exposure 

from Outdoor Sources (2005 NATA).............................................................................. 4-71

5-1. Illustration of BenMAP Approach .................................................................................. 5-11

5-2. Data Inputs and Outputs for the BenMAP Model ......................................................... 5-12

5-3. Important Factors Involved in Seeing a Scenic Vista (Malm, 1999) .............................. 5-61

5-4. Mandatory Class I Areas in the U.S................................................................................ 5-62

5-5. Linkages Between Categories of Ecosystem Services and Components of Human 

Well-Being from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005) .............................. 5-67

5-6. Schematic of the Benefits Assessment Process (U.S. EPA, 2006b)................................ 5-68

5-7. Schematics of Ecological Effects of Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition............................. 5-69

5-8. Areas Potentially Sensitive to Aquatic Acidification (U.S. EPA, 2008b)......................... 5-72

5-9. Areas Potentially Sensitive to Terrestrial Acidification (U.S. EPA, 2008b) .................... 5-74

5-10. Distribution of Red Spruce (Pink) and Sugar Maple (Green) in the Eastern U.S. 

(U.S. EPA, 2008b) ........................................................................................................... 5-75

5-11. Ozone Injury to Forest Plants in U.S. by EPA Regions, 2002.......................................... 5-84

5-12. Estimated Black Cherry, Yellow Poplar, Sugar Maple, Eastern White Pine, Virginia 

Pine, Red Maple, and Quaking Aspen Biomass Loss due to Current Ozone 

Exposure, 2006-2008 (U.S. EPA, 2009b)........................................................................ 5-85

5-13. Economic Value of Estimated PM2.5-Related Health co-benefits of the Mercury 

and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 According to Epidemiology or Expert-Derived 

PM Mortality Risk Estimate ........................................................................................... 5-99

5-14. Percentage of Total PM-Related Mortalities of the Mercury and Air Toxics 

Standards in 2016 Avoided by Baseline Air Quality Level ........................................... 5-100

5-15. Cumulative Percentage of Total PM-Related Mortalities of the Mercury and Air 

Toxics Standards in 2016 Avoided by Baseline Air Quality Level ................................ 5-102

5B-1. Map of the Photochemical Modeling Domains. The black outer box denotes the 

36 km national modeling domain; the red inner box is the 12 km western U.S. 

grid; and the blue inner box is the 12 km eastern U.S. grid. .........................................5B-2

5B-2. Change in Design Values Between the 2017 Baseline and 2017 Control 

Simulations. Negative numbers indicate lower (improved) design values in the 

control case compared to the baseline .........................................................................5B-5

5B-3. Change in Design Values Between the 2017 Base Case and 2017 Control 

Simulations. Negative numbers indicate lower (improved) design values in the 

control case compared to the baseline. ........................................................................5B-6
xiii

5B-4. Change in 20% Worst Days Between the 2017 Baseline and 2017 Control 

Simulations. Negative numbers indicate lower (improved) visibility expressed in 

deciviews in the control case compared to the baseline ..............................................5B-7

5B-5. Change in Design Values Between the 2017 Baseline and 2017 Control 

Simulations. Negative numbers indicate lower (improved) design values in the 

control case compared to the baseline .........................................................................5B-8

5C-1. Comparison of state-level SO2 emission changes between the interim modeled 

scenario and the final policy. .........................................................................................5C-3

5C-2. Estimated Reduction in Excess PM2.5-Related Premature Deaths Estimated to 

Occur in Each County in 2016 as a Result of the Interim Modeled Mercury and Air 

Toxics Standards ............................................................................................................5C-6

7-1. Modeled African-American Population Below the Poverty Level by Census Tract 

in the Southeast for 2016 .............................................................................................. 7-45

7-2. Modeled White Population Below the Poverty Level by Census Tract in the 

Southeast for 2016......................................................................................................... 7-46

7-3. Modeled Female Population Below the Poverty Level by Census Tract for 2016......... 7-47

7-4. Modeled Hispanic Population by Census Tract for 2016............................................... 7-48

7-5. Modeled Laotian Population by Census Tract for 2016 ................................................ 7-49

7-6. Modeled Chippewa Population by Census Tract in the Great Lakes Area for 2016...... 7-50
xiv

LIST OF TABLES

Number Page

ES-1. Summary of EPA’s Estimates of Annualized Benefits, Costs, and Net Benefits of 

the Final MATS in 2016 (billions of 2007$).................................................................... ES-2

ES-2: Projected Electricity Generating Unit (EGU) Emissions of SO2, NOX, Mercury, 

Hydrogen Chloride, PM, and CO2 with the Base Case and with MATS, 2015 ............... ES-2

ES-3. Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Adverse Health Effects of the Mercury and 

Air Toxics Standards (95% confidence intervals)........................................................... ES-5

ES-4. Estimated Economic Value of Health and Welfare Co-Benefits of the Mercury and 

Air Toxics Standards (95% confidence intervals, billions of 2007$) .............................. ES-6

ES-5. Human Health Effects of Pollutants Affected by the Mercury and Air Toxics 

Standards..................................................................................................................... ES-10

ES-6. Environmental Effects of Pollutants Affected by the Mercury and Air Toxics 

Standards..................................................................................................................... ES-12

ES-7. Estimated Employment Impact Table.......................................................................... ES-15

1-1. Emission Limitations for Coal-Fired and Solid Oil-Derived Fuel-Fired EGUs ................... 1-6

1-2. Emission Limitations for Liquid Oil-Fired EGUs................................................................ 1-7

1-3. Alternate Emission Limitations for Existing Coal- and Oil-Fired EGUs............................. 1-8

1-4. Alternate Emission Limitations for New Coal- and Oil-Fired EGUs.................................. 1-9

2-1. Existing Electricity Generating Capacity by Energy Source, 2009.................................... 2-1

2-2. Total U.S. Electric Power Industry Retail Sales in 2009 (Billion kWh).............................. 2-2

2-3. Electricity Net Generation in 2009 (Billion kWh)............................................................. 2-2

2-4. Coal Steam Electricity Generating Units, by Size, Age, Capacity, and Efficiency 

(Heat Rate)....................................................................................................................... 2-3

2-5. U.S. Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions, 1990–2010 ...................................................... 2-7

2-6. U.S. Hydrogen Chloride Emissions, 2005 and 2010......................................................... 2-7

2-7. Revenue and Expense Statistics for Major U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities 

for 2009 ($millions)........................................................................................................ 2-15

2-8. Projected Revenues by Service Category in 2015 for Public Power and InvestorOwned Utilities (billions)................................................................................................ 2-15

3-1. Emissions Limitations for Coal-Fired and Solid Oil-Derived Fuel-Fired Electric 

Utility Steam Generating Units........................................................................................ 3-4

3-2. Emissions Limitations for Liquid Oil-Fired Electric Utility Steam Generating Units ........ 3-5
xv

3-3. 2009 U.S. Electricity Net Generation and EPA Base Case Projections for 2015-

2030 (Billion kWh)............................................................................................................ 3-7

3-4. Projected Emissions of SO2, NOX, Mercury, Hydrogen Chloride, PM, and CO2 with 

the Base Case and with MATS, 2015 ............................................................................. 3-10

3-5. Annualized Compliance Cost for MATS Requirements on Coal-fired Generation ........ 3-14

3-6. Generation Mix with the Base Case and the MATS, 2015 (Thousand GWh) ................ 3-16

3-7. Characteristics of Covered Operational Coal Units and Additional Coal Units 

Projected to Withdraw as Uneconomic under MATS, 2015.......................................... 3-17

3-8. Total Generation Capacity by 2015 (GW)...................................................................... 3-19

3-9. Total Generation Capacity by 2030 (GW)...................................................................... 3-20

3-10. 2015 Coal Production for the Electric Power Sector with the Base Case and MATS 

(Million Tons) ................................................................................................................. 3-21

3-11. 2015 Power Sector Coal Use with the Base Case and the MATS, by Coal Rank 

(TBtu) .......................................................................................................................... 3-22

3-12. Projected Contiguous U.S. and Regional Retail Electricity Prices with the Base 

Case and with the MATS (2007 cents/kWh).................................................................. 3-24

3-13. Average Minemouth and Delivered Coal Prices with the Base Case and with 

MATS (2007$/MMBtu)................................................................................................... 3-26

3-14. 2015-2030 Weighted Average Henry Hub (spot) and Delivered Natural Gas Prices 

with the Base Case and with MATS (2007$/MMBtu).................................................... 3-26

3-15. Cost Impacts of Compliance Actions for Oil-Fired Units................................................ 3-30

3-16. Total Costs Projected for Covered Units under MATS, 2015 (billions of 2007$) .......... 3-31

3A-1. Oil-fired EGUs by Fuel Type ...........................................................................................3A-2

3A-2. Least Cost NEEDS Modeled Fuels for Oil-fired EGUs.....................................................3A-3

3A-3. Percentage of Total Heat Input Derived from Oil for Oil-Fired Units Subject to 

Mandatory Natural Gas Curtailment (2008-2010) ........................................................3A-5

3A-4. Costs to Achieve the MATS Emission Limitations for Oil-Fired Units............................3A-6

4-1. Summary of FWHAR State-Level Recreational Fishing Characteristics......................... 4-11

4-2. Summary of HUC-level Average Mercury Fish Tissue Concentration Estimates........... 4-16

4-4. Summary of Baseline Mercury Fish Tissue Concentrations........................................... 4-50

4-5. Baseline Levels of Mercury Exposure and IQ Impacts Due to Freshwater SelfCaught Fish Consumption.............................................................................................. 4-51

4-6. Summary Estimates of the Aggregate Size and Present Value of IQ Losses Under 

Alternative Base Case and Emissions Control Scenarios............................................... 4-56

4-7. Aggregate Benefit Estimates for Reductions IQ Losses Associated with Alternative 

Emissions Reduction Scenarios...................................................................................... 4-56

4-8. Unquantified Health and Ecosystem Effects Associated with Exposure to Mercury .... 4-65
xvi

4A-1. Reported Trip Travel Distance for Freshwater Anglers (Miles).....................................4A-2

4A-2. Demographic Characteristics of Freshwater Anglers ....................................................4A-2

4A-3. Demographic Characteristics of Freshwater Anglers ....................................................4A-3

4A-4. OLS Regression Results for Determinants of Reported Trip Travel Distance (Miles)....4A-4

4A-5. Travel Distance Frequencies by Demographic Group (Percentage in Each Distance 

Category)........................................................................................................................4A-6

5-1. Estimated Monetized Co-benefits of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 

2016 (billions of 2007$) ................................................................................................... 5-3

5-2. Human Health Effects of Pollutants Affected by the Mercury and Air Toxics 

Standards......................................................................................................................... 5-4

5-3. Environmental Effects of Pollutants Affected by the Mercury and Air Toxics 

Standards......................................................................................................................... 5-6

5-4. Primary Sources of Uncertainty in the Benefits Analysis .............................................. 5-18

5-5. Criteria Used When Selecting C-R Functions................................................................. 5-22

5-6. Health Endpoints and Epidemiological Studies Used to Quantify Health Impacts ....... 5-24

5-7. Baseline Incidence Rates and Population Prevalence Rates for Use in Impact 

Functions, General Population ...................................................................................... 5-37

5-8. Asthma Prevalence Rates Used for this Analysis........................................................... 5-39

5-9. Expected Impact on Estimated Benefits of Premature Mortality Reductions of 

Differences Between Factors Used in Developing Applied VSL and Theoretically 

Appropriate VSL ............................................................................................................. 5-43

5-10. Alternative Direct Medical Cost of Illness Estimates for Non-fatal Heart Attacks........ 5-48

5-11. Estimated Costs Over a 5-Year Period (in 2006$) of a Non-fatal Myocardial 

Infarction........................................................................................................................ 5-49

5-12. Unit Values for Economic Valuation of Health Endpoints (2006$)................................ 5-51

5-13. Elasticity Values Used to Account for Projected Real Income Growth ......................... 5-57

5-14. Adjustment Factors Used to Account for Projected Real Income Growth.................... 5-59

5-15. Aquatic Status Categories.............................................................................................. 5-71

5-16. Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) Estimates (per tonne of CO2) for 2016 (in 2007$) ............ 5-90

5-17. Monetized Co-Benefits of CO2 Emissions Reductions in 2016 (in millions of 

2007$) ............................................................................................................................ 5-91

5-18. Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Adverse Health Effects of the Mercury and 

Air Toxics Standards in 2016 (95% confidence intervals).............................................. 5-95

5-19. Estimated Economic Value of Health and Welfare co-benefits of the Mercury and 

Air Toxics Standards in 2016 (95% confidence intervals, billions of 2007$) ................. 5-96

5-20. Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Premature Adult Mortality due to the Mercury and 

Air Toxics Standards in 2016 Occurring Above and Below the Lowest Measured Levels in 

the Underlying Epidemiology Studies............................................................................... 5-101
xvii

5A-1. 2005 US Emissions by Sector.........................................................................................5A-5

5A-2. 2005 Base Year SO2 Emissions (tons/year) for States by Sector....................................5A-5

5A-3. 2005 Base Year PM2.5 Emissions (tons/year) for States by Sector.................................5A-7

5A-4. Summary of Mobile Source Control Programs Included in the Future Year 

Baseline........................................................................................................................5A-11

5A-5. Control Strategies and/or Growth Assumptions Included in the Future Year 

Baseline for Non-EGU Stationary Sources...................................................................5A-13

5A-6. Summary of Modeled Base Case Annual Emissions (tons/year) for 48 States by 

Sector: SO2 and PM2.5...................................................................................................5A-15

5A-7. Future Year Baseline SO2 Emissions (tons/year) for States by Sector.........................5A-15

5A-8. Future Year Baseline PM2.5 Emissions (tons/year) for States by Sector......................5A-17

5A-9. Future Year Baseline EGU CAP Emissions (tons/year) by State...................................5A-19

5A-10. Summary of Emissions Changes for the MATS AQ Modeling in the Lower 48 

States............................................................................................................................5A-22

5A-11. EGU Emissions Totals for the Modeled MATS Control Case in the Lower 48 States ..5A-22

5A-12. State Specific Changes in Annual EGU SO2 for the Lower 48 States............................5A-24

5A-13. State Specific Changes in Annual EGU PM2.5 for the Lower 48 States.........................5A-26

5B-1. Geographic Elements of Domains Used in Photochemical Modeling ...........................5B-3

5C-1. Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Adverse Health Effects of the Interim 

Modeled Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 (95% confidence intervals).........5C-4

5C-2. Estimated Economic Value of Health and Welfare Benefits of the Interim 

Modeled Mercury and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 (95% confidence intervals, 

billions of 2007$) ...........................................................................................................5C-5

5C-3. Estimated Economic Value of Adult Mortality Benefits by Pollutant, in Total and 

Per Ton of Emissions Reduced Interim Modeled Mercury and Air Toxics Standard 

in 2016 (95% confidence intervals, 2007$)....................................................................5C-8

5D-1. Estimated Reduction in Incidence of Premature Adult Mortality for the Mercury 

and Air Toxics Standards in 2016 by State.....................................................................5D-3

5D-2. Estimated Economic Value of Health Benefits of the Mercury and Air Toxics 

Standard in 2016 by State (billions of 2007$, 3% discount rate) ..................................5D-5

6-1. Percent of Abatement Expenditures in Different PACE Studies from Add-On or 

End-of-Line Control Measures......................................................................................... 6-3

6-2. Employment Impacts Within the Regulated Industry Using Peer-Reviewed Study 

Estimates using Morgenstern et al. (2002)...................................................................... 6-6

6-3. Increased Pollution Control Installations due to MATS, by 2015 (GW)........................... 6-9
xviii

6-4. Employment Effects Using the Environmental Protection Sector Approach for the 

MATS (in Job-Years) ....................................................................................................... 6-10

6-5. Other Employment Impacts of MATS (in Job-Years) ..................................................... 6-11

6-6. Estimated Employment Impact for the MATS ............................................................... 6-11

6-7. 2002 Share of Production Expenditures on Electricity and Maximum Percentage 

Increase in Production Expenditures for 13 Largest Sectors in Terms of Value 

Added............................................................................................................................. 6-16

6-8. 2002 Share of Production Expenditures on Electricity and Maximum Percentage 

Increase in Production Expenditures for 10 Sectors with Largest Upper-Bound 

Average Production Cost Increase................................................................................. 6-18

6A-1. Net Employment Changes for 2015 (job-years) ............................................................6A-2

6A-2. Increased Pollution Control Demand due to the final MATS, 2015 (GW).....................6A-4

6A-3. Estimated Pollution Control Resource Needs (Quantity and Prices Used) ...................6A-6

6A-4. Jobs Due to Pollution Control Equipment under the final MATS (Job-years in 

2015) ..............................................................................................................................6A-7

6A-5. Annual Job Losses due to Coal Capacity Retirements for 2015.....................................6A-8

6A-6. Annual Employment Impacts Due To Changes in Coal Use for 2015 ..........................6A-10

6A-7. Annual Employment Impact due to Changes in Fuel Use (2015)................................6A-10

6A-8. Installation Labor Requirement...................................................................................6A-11

6A-9. Resources Needed for Operation ................................................................................6A-12

6A-10. Operating Labor Assumptions.....................................................................................6A-13

6A-11. Inputs to Labor from Retirements...............................................................................6A-13

6A-12. Inputs to Labor for Fuel Use ........................................................................................6A-14

6B-1. 2002 Share of Production Expenditures on Electricity and Maximum Percentage 

Increase in Production Expenditures.............................................................................6B-1

7-1. Projected Impact of MATS on Small Entities in 2015 .................................................... 7-15

7-2. Incremental Annualized Costs under MATS Summarized by Ownership Group and 

Cost Category in 2015 (2007$ millions)......................................................................... 7-17

7-3. Incremental Annualized Costs under MATS Summarized by Ownership Group and 

Cost Category (2007$ millions) in 2015......................................................................... 7-23

7-4. Summary of Potential Impacts on Government Entities under MATS in 2015............. 7-24

7-5. Comparative Summary of the Demographics within 5 Kilometers (3 Miles) of the 

Affected Sources (population in millions)...................................................................... 7-39

7-6. Reported Distributions of Self-Caught Freshwater Fish Consumption Rates 

Among Selected Potentially High-Risk Subpopulations................................................. 7-44

7-7. Change in the Percentage of All Deaths Attributable to PM2.5 Before and After 

Implementation of MATS by 2016 for Each Populations, Stratified by Race ................ 7-52
xix

7-8. Change in the Percentage of All Deaths Attributable to PM2.5 Before and After 

Implementation of MATS by 2016 for Each Population, Stratified by Race and 

Poverty Level.................................................................................................................. 7-53

7-9. Change in the Percentage of All Deaths Attributable to PM2.5 Before and After 

the Implementation of MATS by 2016 for Each Population, Stratified by 

Educational Attainment................................................................................................. 7-53

8-1. Summary of EPA’s Estimates of Annualized Benefits, Costs, and Net Benefits of 

the Final MATS in 2016 (billions of 2007$)...................................................................... 8-2