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### Manufacturing Costsfor Clothes Washer U.SDepartment ofEnergy -Cl ~ t - .W -a_~ .s -,_Workshop Officeof Energy Efficiency 

### Clothes Washers . - andRenewableEnergy July23, 1997 1000IndependenceAvenue, SW Washington, DC 20585 

### Approaches to Data Gathering, Reporting and Statistical Treatment -Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Introduction



# 'I Where costs are used

- Life-cycle cost analysis

- Manufacturer impact analysis v/ 

### ·Need for new cost information

- Update/validate current information

- Recent experience with new technologies 

### Consideration of Whirlpool technologies -Compliance with the Process Rule

.DRAFT Ju 9. 1997 2 r *.-'**. *-Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Data Collection Issues 

## V Data collection timetable 

# V Characterizing uncertainty inmanufacturing costs 

# V. Variability between manufacturers for GRIM analysis 

# Vy Costing approach/Engineering analysis Consideration ofWhirlpool prototype

\ -
- .DRAFT Juy9.1997 3Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Data Collection Timetable



### J Importance of afinalized revisiontothe test procedure dV Establishment of a baseline MEF value 

## VI Milestones (approximate)

- Finalized revision totest procedure (Begin)

- Establishment of baseline MEF (Week4)

- Data submittalsto AHAM (Week 12)

-Release of datato DOE (Week 16)

DRAFT Ju 9. 1, 4Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Characterizing Uncertainty inManufacturing Costs The Department is proposing a method to capture uncertainty in cost estimates:

-Manufacturers would provide a range of costs associated with



### achieving an efficiency level. Ranges provided separately for variable and fixed costs.

- Ranges described by triangular distributions with minimum, most 

### likelyand maximum values. Custom distributionswill be accepted.

- Shipment-based weights assigned to each distribution.

DRAFT Ju 91997 5Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Illustrative Input Distributionsfor Incremental Manufacturing Costs Efficiency ' Level 1 - 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Manuf- -Mkt. Manuf- Mkt. In c re menta I C o s t ($) acturer Share Legend A 50% Efficiency ' B 30% Level 2 - . -- ^---^ ^^^-I ^^~-C 20% -- O' 1 2 3 .4 5 6 ., 7 8 Inc remental Cost(S). -- * ' " . ~ . * . . - /' \ ' * .' ** * * *./ '** . , Efficiency / Level 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 In c rem e n ta I C ost ($)

·. t . . . 

### Manufacturers can specifythe minimum, most likely,and maximum costsof achieving a particularefficiency level. -- - ,.~ -; :- ' D'RAFTJuly 9. 1997 6 - ' . , . * ' ' * * * * ' '. , * ' - **I . * '~~~Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Cost - Efficiency curves can be constructed for various percentile values indicating % of shipments below a certain cost. $7.00 90% $6.00- 90% 75% 50% $5.00- · = 25% 10% a $4.00 L $3.00- $2.00 $1.00 '* 1 - - '2 . 3 

### Efficiency.Level DRAFT Jy9. 1997 9Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Variability between Manufacturers forGRIM Analysis

% . * 

### Shipment weighted cost distributions forthe industry can bedirectly input to GRIM. 

### ^ 4The 

### Department isseeking additional input onthe mechanics of performing sub-group or manufacturer specific GRIM analysis. i/ Comments are welcome on amethodology suggested by one ofthe stakeholders.

DRAFT Jul9.1997 10Clothes WasherWorkshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Characterizing Uncertainty in Manufacturing Costs 

# .1 Samples drawn from manufacturer distributions to create an industry distribution. 

# V Results reported as distribution curvesover entire range ofcosts and for all efficiency levels. 

# V/ -Rangeofcosts reported for different percentile intervals (e.g., mean, 10%, 25%,50%,75%, 90%).

DRAFT J 9, 1997 7 k -Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Shipment Weighted Cost Distributions Forecast: W Avg Var Cost Lvl 1 1,000 Trials Frequency Chart 2Outliers .032 32

.024 24 Efficiency . 1 l ll. * -Level 1 -
000 0 1.75 $2.25 $2.75 $3.25. $3.75 Forecast: WAvgVarCost Lvl2 Sampling of cost 1,000Trials FrequencyChart 2Outliers distributionswith , ' .02,0 ---- _ _

# F -l -- 2[o25 application of market Level2 1 ' .iIlII i IJ' share6 weights resultsl i Efficiency share results

, e,.007 ; ,Hlllll1 

### bI.1-,i6.75

. industry cost- .000 sdod, o. 0 distributionsforeach $2.75 $3.31 $3.68 $4.44 $5.00 efficiency level Forecast: W Avg Var Cost Lvl 3 . 1,000Trials . Frequency Chart 0Outliers .. * .024 24 1 o,,- . J|||J .i 1-1-- 

## f:- 1 ; Efficiency 0 .012 1 Level 3 LI II

- , ,

, I oo .- b-F - I, L " 000 0 | . $4.00 C4.75 R5.50 s6.25 D R.0 | -, Cost ... DAFT W * *~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Costing Approach/Engineering Analysis V/ Manufacturers have indicatedtheir preference for an ENERGYEFFICIENCY approach to reporting manufacturing-costs. V/ AHAM members believe appropriate levelsare baseline, 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% improvement applied to an existing Vertical Axis clothes washer and improvements of 35%, 40%, 45% and 50% appliedto a Horizontal Axis clothes washer. / 

### The value of the baseline MEF will be calculated oncethetest procedure isfinalized and efficiency improvements reviewed accordingly.

. '.;DRAFTJUI. 1997

· DRAFT ,.y 9,1997Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Costing Approach/Engineering Analysis (cont.) 

### Manufacturers do not believethat disclosureof design options is practical and possible given the proprietary nature of the 

### information. i' AHAM has requested amodification to the survey instrument in H.e 

### order to segment the costs ofTooling, Investment, Research'and Development, and Marketing. ' AMore specific definitions of these and other costcategories has been prepared by DOE.

DRAFT July 9. 1 997 124 " , , ' Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### Consideration of Whirlpool Prototypes 4/ 

### AHAM members believe it is not appropriate forthem to comment on the cost/efficiencies of Whirlpool designs. 

## V Whirlpool does notthink it is appropriate forthem to provide costing information on these prototypes. They have offered to cooperate instead with athird-party cost assessment.

-i~ ~~DFu.
. ... . . ... 1 DRAFT July . 1997 13Clothes Washer Workshop:. Manufacturing Costs 

### Consideration of Whirlpool Prototype (cont.) 

### The Department intends to have theWhirlpool designs costed for use infuture analysis. v/ 

### .Details ofthis assessmentwill be vetted with stakeholders priorto its initiation. The costdata will not be formally integratedto the Life-Cycle-CostAnalysis until more information isavailable on these designs. / 

### The costdatawill be included inthe Manufacturer Impact Analysis.

'"'I* ."DRAFT 1997 14 .*. - .
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..' ' . DRAFTjuly9. 1997 14 " ; '. ^** . ' ' * ': . ,* '' \ *