RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 1 of 19 

RA 01 Risk Analysis and Assessment

RA 01: Guidance for Risk Analysis & Assessment 

As defined by FAA AC 150/5200-37, risk is the composite of the predicted severity and probability of the outcome or 

effect (harm) of a particular hazard. In order to assess the level of risk severity and probability are first determined. 

Severity is determined by the worst credible potential outcome. Less severe effects may be considered in addition to 

this, but at a minimum, the most severe effects are considered. Determination of severity is assessed independent of 

probability. 

Probability is the likelihood of a consequence related to the hazard occurring. 

Every hazard is assessed in terms of its severity followed by an assessment of its probability to determine level of risk. 

Definitions are provided to help guide the assessment. 

The first action will be to determine a numerical value for each category and consequence as listed in Part 1. Should 

additional consequences be determined they will also be evaluated. 

The second action will be to average the numbers previously determined and documented in Part 2. 

The third action will be to plot the numbers on a risk matrix chart (example below). The risk matrix chart has degrees of 

color based on levels of severity and probability. Green is the highest level of acceptability, lowest level severity and 

lowest level of probability. Yellow is a caution area where the tolerability needs to be determined by the Safety Board. A 

yellow hazard should be further addressed for mitigation to move the risk value to green or into green if practical. Red 

should be considered not tolerable and should be addressed as soon as possible to move the risk value closer to yellow 

and/or green. 

The number factors for each square can range in tenths of a point, i.e.1.0 to 1.9, 3.0 to 3.9. These numbers per 

category and consequence will then be added and divided for an average and then plotted per the example below. For 

demonstration purposes, a possible hazard score could be 3.1 for severity and 4.3 for probability. This score (indicated 

by a blue dot) is illustrated as an example below: 

Part 1: Identify Hazard Consequences by Severity and Probability 

Example 
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 2 of 19 

1. Hazard Tracking no. 2. Name: 3: Date 

3. Hazard Categories: 4. Hazard Consequences Rated by Severity and Probability:

 1 – People: Threat to any airport 

employee, tenant, contractor, travelling public, 

and public at-large.

 Injury/Illness 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point 

 -No first aid required 

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Injury/illness, minor first aid required - 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Significant injury/illness 1 to 5 persons 

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Significant injury/illness, 6-49 people 

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Significant injury/illness, 50 or greater

 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 

 Death 

SEVERITY

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Death, less than 2 persons 

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Death, less than 5 persons (not Mass Casualty Incident) 

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Significant injury, 50 or greater

 -Death, 5 or greater, MCI

 -Lost work time, greater than 1 month 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

-Possibly only once in 10-100 years

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 3 of 19 

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 

 Loss of Work 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -No lost work time

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Little to no lost work time, less than 2 days (16 hours) 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Lost work time, less than 1 week (40 hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Lost work time 1 week to 1 month

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Lost work time, greater than 1 month

 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week

 2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to 

any disruption to airport operations including 

aircraft delays, loss of operation of a facility, 

runway, taxiway, ramp, navigational aids 

(navaids), buildings, equipment, ATC, 

roadways or any other infrastructure needed 

to maintain normal operations and damage 

that incurs an airport financial loss/impact. 

 Movement Area Pavement Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 4 of 19 

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to any 

disruption to airport operations including 

aircraft delays, loss of operation of a facility, 

runway, taxiway, ramp, navigational aids 

(navaids), buildings, equipment, ATC, 

roadways or any other infrastructure needed 

to maintain normal operations and damage 

that incurs an airport financial loss/impact

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours) 

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Movement Area Marking/Lighting/Signage Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 5 of 19 

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to 

any disruption to airport operations 

including aircraft delays, loss of operation 

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp, 

navigational aids (navaids), buildings, 

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other 

infrastructure needed to maintain normal 

operations and damage that incurs an 

airport financial loss/impact 

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 RWY Safety Area Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 -None to minimal equipment loss, less than 1 day out of service

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

 -None to minimal equipment loss, less than 2 days out of service

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 TWY Safety Area Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 6 of 19 

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to 

any disruption to airport operations 

including aircraft delays, loss of operation 

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp, 

navigational aids (navaids), buildings, 

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other 

infrastructure needed to maintain normal 

operations and damage that incurs an 

airport financial loss/impact 

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Non Movement Area Pavement Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 7 of 19 

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to 

any disruption to airport operations 

including aircraft delays, loss of operation 

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp, 

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings, 

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other 

infrastructure needed to maintain normal 

operations and damage that incurs an 

airport financial loss/impact 

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Non Movement Area Marking/Lighting/Signage Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Access/Perimeter Road Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours 

Score

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 8 of 19 

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to 

any disruption to airport operations 

including aircraft delays, loss of operation 

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp, 

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings, 

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other 

infrastructure needed to maintain normal 

operations and damage that incurs an 

airport financial loss/impact 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Navigational Aids Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hour 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Damage to Airport Equipment/Vehicles 

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 9 of 19 

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to 

any disruption to airport operations 

including aircraft delays, loss of operation 

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp, 

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings, 

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other 

infrastructure needed to maintain normal 

operations and damage that incurs an 

airport financial loss/impact 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to minimal equipment lossless than 1 day out of service

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to minimal equipment loss less than 2 days out of service

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Equipment loss less than one week

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Equipment loss less than 30 days

 Catastrophic = 5.5 points

 -Total loss of equipment

 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Damage to Aircraft 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to minimal equipment lossless than 1 day out of service

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to minimal equipment loss less than 2 days out of service

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Equipment loss less than one week)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Equipment loss less than 30 days

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Total loss of equipment

 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 10 of 19 

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to 

any disruption to airport operations 

including aircraft delays, loss of operation 

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp, 

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings, 

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other 

infrastructure needed to maintain normal 

operations and damage that incurs an 

airport financial loss/impact 

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Damage to Tenant Equipment/Vehicles 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to minimal equipment lossless than 1 day out of service

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to minimal equipment loss less than 2 days out of service

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Equipment loss less than one week)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Equipment loss less than 30 days

 Catastrophic = 5.5points

 -Total loss of equipment

 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Building Facilities Impacted 

SEVERITY

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 11 of 19 

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to 

any disruption to airport operations 

including aircraft delays, loss of operation 

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp, 

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings, 

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other 

infrastructure needed to maintain normal 

operations and damage that incurs an 

airport financial loss/impact 

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Services Impacted (fueling, utilities, aircraft support) 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours

 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 12 of 19 

2– Continuity of Operations: Threat to 

any disruption to airport operations 

including aircraft delays, loss of operation 

of a facility, runway, taxiway, ramp, 

navigational aids (NAVAIDS), buildings, 

equipment, ATC, roadways or any other 

infrastructure needed to maintain normal 

operations and damage that incurs an 

airport financial loss/impact

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Terminal Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 1 hour

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -None to very limited operational impact, less than 4 hours

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

-Loss of total airport operation, less than 2 hours

 -Loss of partial airport operation, less than 1 day (24-hours)

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, 2 to 12 hours

 -Partial loss of operation, 48 hours or less

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Loss of total operation, greater than 12 hours

 -Loss of partial operations, greater than 48 hours 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 3 – Environmental: Threat to any 

impact either through a ground or air release 

that may potentially harm the current natural 

state. Impacts may include chemical, 

emissions, and bio hazard agents. 

 Water Supply Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -No environmental impact

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 13 of 19 

3 – Environmental: Threat to any impact 

either through a ground or air release that may 

potentially harm the current natural state. 

Impacts may include chemical, emissions, and 

bio hazard agents

 -Contained with none to limited impact 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Non-contained but manageable/mitigated within 1 day

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 - Non-contained, resulting in environmental impact 1 to 30 days

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Non-contained, long term impact, great than 30 days

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Ground/Soil Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -No environmental impact

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Contained with none to limited impact 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Non-contained but manageable/mitigated within 1 day

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 - Non-contained, resulting in environmental impact 1 to 30 days

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Non-contained, long term impact, great than 30 days 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

Score

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 14 of 19 

3 – Environmental: Threat to any impact 

either through a ground or air release that may 

potentially harm the current natural state. 

Impacts may include chemical, emissions, and 

bio hazard agents

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Air Quality Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -No environmental impact

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Contained with none to limited impact 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Non-contained but manageable/mitigated within 1 day

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 - Non-contained, resulting in environmental impact 1 to 30 days

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Non-contained, long term impact, great than 30 days 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Wildlife Impacted 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -No environmental impact

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Contained with none to limited impact 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Non-contained but manageable/mitigated within 1 day

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 - Non-contained, resulting in environmental impact 1 to 30 days

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

-Non-contained, long term impact, great than 30 days

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 15 of 19 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 4 – Budget: Threat to the annual budget 

for the airport. The consequence results in an 

unexpected expense 

 Airport Operating Budget 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to minimal budget impact

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Minimal budget impact 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Moderate budget impact

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 - Serious budget impact

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Grave budget impact 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 CIP Project 

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 16 of 19 

4 – Budget: Threat to the annual budget for 

the airport. The consequence results in an 

unexpected expense 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to minimal budget impact

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Minimal budget impact 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Moderate budget impact

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 - Serious budget impact

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Grave budget impact

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

 Tenant Budget 

SEVERITY

 Negligible = 1 to 1.9 point

 -None to minimal budget impact

 Minor = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Minimal budget impact 

 Major = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Moderate budget impact

 Hazardous = 4 to 4.9 points

 - Serious budget impact

 Catastrophic = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Grave budget impact 

PROBABILITY

 Extremely Improbable = 1 to 1.9 point

 -Almost impossible

 -Possibly only once in 10-100 years

 Extremely Remote = 2 to 2.9 points

 -Conceivable, but highly unlikely

 -Possibly once in every 5 to less than 10 years

 Remote = 3 to 3.9 points

 -Unlikely, but possible to occur

 -Possibly once a year or multiple times from 1 year to less than 5 years

Score

Score

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 17 of 19 

 

 Probable = 4 to 4.9 points

 -Regularly expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur multiple times per year or once per month

 Frequent = 5 to 5.9 points

 -Continuously expected to occur in the system

 -Likely to occur once a day or multiple times per week 

Score
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 18 of 19 

Part 2: Calculate Hazard Consequences by Severity and Probability 

a) Add up each score for hazard category by consequence, for Severity and average by dividing total score by 

number of consequences to get an average score 

b) Add up each score for hazard category by consequence, for Probability and average by dividing total score by 

number of consequences to get an average score 

c) Then add each category scores for Severity and divide by 4 and Probability and divide by 4 

d) Plot final scores on Risk Matrix Chart next page 

Severity Scores 

Scores # of 

Consequences

Scores 

÷ 

Consequences

People 

COOP 

Environment 

Budget 

 Total 

 Total divided by 4 

Probability Scores 

Scores # of 

Consequences

Scores 

÷ 

Consequences

People 

COOP 

Environment 

Budget 

 Total 

 Total divided by 4 

 
RA 01 

RA 01 Risk Analysis & Assessment Effective date: draft March 13, 2011 Page 19 of 19 

Part 3 Plot the Hazard Consequences by Severity and Probability 

Risk Matrix 

Severity vs. Probability 

Signed off by: 

Full Name: 

Signature 

Date: 

Insignificant

Major

Minor

Catastrophic

Hazardous

Extremely 

Improbable

Extremeley 

Remote Remote Probable Frequent

1

3

2

5

4

Should never 

occur

Unlikely to 

occur, do not 

dismiss

Should be 

expected once May occur May occur often

I II III IV V

Unacceptable risk by threat

Reduced risk of casualties by threats

Acceptable mitigation of risk by threat