U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Fact Sheet 2011–3080

July 2011

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Land-Cover Change Research at the U.S. Geological

Survey—Assessing Our Nation’s Dynamic Land Surface 

he U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 

recently completed an unprecedented, 27-year assessment of landuse and land-cover change for the 

conterminous United States. For the 

period 1973 to 2000, scientists generated estimates of change in major 

types of land use and land cover, such 

as development, mining, agriculture, 

forest, grasslands, and wetlands. To 

help provide the insight that our Nation 

will need to make land-use decisions in 

coming decades, the historical trends 

data is now being used by the USGS to 

help model potential future land use/

land cover under different scenarios, 

including climate, environmental, economic, population, public policy, and 

technological change.

Identifying historical land-cover change 

trends and their causes is essential for predicting potential future changes in land use. 

Population growth, policy changes, and increased pressures on natural resources will 

determine future landscape change, altering 

human resource requirements, as well as 

the landscape’s potential to provide them.

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists recently completed an assessment 

of land-use and land-cover change for the 

conterminous United States. Scientists used 

the Landsat satellite image archive (http://

landsat.usgs.gov/) to analyze land-use and 

land-cover change between 1973 and 2000. 

Rates and trends in agricultural activities, 

timber harvesting patterns, expansion of 

developed areas, incidence of fire and other 

natural disturbances, modification of grasslands, and other changes have been estimated for five different image dates (1973, 

1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000).

The analysis was conducted on all 84 

ecoregions of the conterminous United 

States. Ecoregions were chosen as the 

best unit of analysis as they represent geographically unique landscapes with similar 

climate, plants and animals, and resource 

potential. Results from this historical analysis reveal a complex mosaic of change. 

Ecoregions expressed distinct patterns 

across space and time in response to biogeophysical (biological, geological, and 

physical) and socioeconomic drivers of 

change. An estimated 8.6% of land cover 

changed in use at least once between 1973 

and 2000. Developed land use increased 

by 33%, while forests and agriculture 

declined by 4%, and grassland/shrubland 

increased by 2%.

Using this improved understanding of 

historical trends in land-cover change, the 

USGS can better provide decisionmakers 

with crucial information on where future 

land change is likely to occur.

Land-Cover Trends 

The USGS Land-Cover Trends Web site 

(http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov/) provides 

a searchable database of remotely sensed 

imagery, land-cover and land-cover-change 

estimates for the 84 ecoregions in the conterminous United States, and summary reports describing change in each ecoregion. 

USGS scientists are working to establish a 

comprehensive and integrated land-change 

monitoring system to provide systematic 

updates to the existing 27-year Land-Cover 

Trends dataset. This includes exploration 

of alternative methodologies for expanding the land-change history timeline to the 

2005, 2010, and 2015 time periods and beyond. Pilot studies are currently underway 

to determine best approaches and potential 

methodology changes for continued, costeffective data delivery. Existing data are 

being run through vigorous quality assessments to ensure their usability and portability for scientists, policymakers, and the 

general public 

Drivers of Land-Cover Change

USGS scientists are analyzing how 

environmental, institutional, political, 

technological, demographic, and economic 

drivers determine the temporal and spatial 

distribution of land-use and land-cover 

change. Field observations, socioeconomic 

data, and biogeophysical variables are also 

being examined to identify local, regional, 

and broader scale forces driving landscape 

change. Identifying these forces will help 

This map is one example of U.S. Geological Survey efforts to help provide the crucial information that our Nation 

will need to make land-use decisions in the coming decades. This map shows the overall “footprint” of land-cover 

change estimated for each of the 84 ecoregions in the conterminous United States between 1973 and 2000. The 

footprint of change is the sum of all land-cover changes estimated in square kilometers per ecoregion. Ecoregions 

are outlined in grey. Warmer colors indicate areas where land-cover change has been greatest.

275–3,000

3,000–6,500

6,500–10,000

10,000–25,000

25,000–69,000

Land-cover change in

square kilometers per ecoregion
decisionmakers make better informed choices to mitigate landuse impacts on carbon and nitrogen cycles, erosion, water quality, 

and atmospheric and other environmental processes.

Consequences of LandCover Change

Current research is focusing on the consequences of 

land-use and land-cover change 

on Earth’s surface albedo (reflectance), snow cover, radiative forcing (a measure of the 

balance between the energy 

absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere and surface and the energy reradiated back to space), 

and the carbon cycle (cycling 

of carbon to and from the atmoderstand the vulnerability and resiliency 

of both human and environmental systems. Using the Land-Cover Trends database, scientists are able to project changes 

in land use and land cover into the future. 

Research is underway to downscale global scenario frameworks used in climate 

change assessments, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

“Special Report on Emission Scenarios” 

(http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/

spm/sres-en.pdf). Downscaled scenarios 

are then modeled to produce maps of future land use and land cover. The USGS 

is refining its Forecasting Scenarios of 

Land-Use Change (FORE-SCE) model to 

project scenarios of national land change 

into the future. These scenarios are based 

These satellite images show examples of land-cover change in the United States. U.S. Geological Survey scientists 

recently completed an unprecedented assessment of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United 

States for 1973 to 2000 using the Landsat satellite imagery archive. The top row shows (left to right) a 1973 Landsat 

Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) image and a 2000 Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) image of 

Palmdale, California, as well as total area changed from 1973 to 2000. Land-cover change is dominated by development and a mining operation in the east. Area changed image shows the final extent of all changed areas; areas 

that experienced no change are represented in black.

These images show land use and land cover for the greater Kansas City, Missouri, metropolitan area mapped 

in 2010 and modeled to the year 2100. The land-use modeling results are based on the A2 scenario from the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios as developed by the U.S. 

Geological Survey Land-Cover Trends project. In the A2 scenario, economics are the driving force of change, 

along with intense fossil fuel use, low rates of technological innovation, and nearly 150 million more residents 

in the United States by 2050. In this example, increasing demand for land uses, such as agriculture and development, result in decreases in land-cover classes such as grassland, shrublands, and forest.

Land-cover classes

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Tamara S. Wilson

Edited by James W. Hendley II

Graphics and layout by Judy Weathers

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Modeling Future Land-Cover Scenarios

sphere, oceans, soils, freshwater, sediments, and Earth’s crust and mantle). 

The type and distribution of land cover 

also affects regional weather and climate 

patterns. USGS scientists are working to 

determine which critical land uses and 

landscape variables have the greatest 

effect on the climate system and other 

ecosystem processes. Work has begun 

to analyze how forest-cover changes, 

such-as harvesting and regrowth, affect 

surface-water quality and availability.

Modeling Scenarios for LandCover Change

Modeling scenarios of future land-use 

and land-cover change is important to unon varying economic, population, technological innovation, and policy assumptions and were developed for use in resource planning, climate, and hydrologic 

modeling investigations.

The recently completed assessment of 

land-use and land-cover change for the 

conterminous United States is only part 

of USGS efforts to better understand the 

causes and consequences of land-cover 

change. USGS is continuing productive 

collaborations with policymakers, public land managers, and local communities to help ensure that they have the 

crucial information they need to make 

informed decisions about ongoing and 

future land-use choices.

1973 2000 Area changed

Water

Developed

Mechanically disturbed

Mining

Barren

Deciduous forest

Evergreen forest

Mixed forest

Shrubland

Grassland

Agriculture

Hay/pasture

Woody wetland

Herbaceous wetland

For more information, contact:

Benjamin M. Sleeter

U.S. Geological Survey

345 Middlefield Road, MS 531

Menlo Park, CA 94025

Tel. (650) 329-4350

bsleeter@usgs.gov

http://landcovertrends.usgs.gov/

This Fact Sheet and any updates to it are 

available at

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3080/

Landsat Images Used to Estimate and Map Land-Cover Change