### Regulatory Impact Analysis

EPA

- HQ

- OAR

- 2010

- 0162 NHTSA

- 2010

- XXXX



# Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Proposed Rulemaking to Establish Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for

Heavy -Duty Engines and Vehicles

Office of Transportation and Air Qual ity U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

and The National Highway

Traffic Safety Administration

### Regulatory Impact Analysis

i TABLE OF CONTENTS

C HAPTER 1: INDUSTRY CHARACTERIZATION 1.1 Introduction: 1 -3 1.2 Truck Classes 1 - 8 1.3 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Segments 1 - 10 1.4 Operations 1 - 16 1.5 Tire Manufacturers 1 - 28 1.6 Current U.S. and international GHG voluntary actions and regulations 1 -32 1.7 Trailers 1 -35 1.8 Hybrids 1 -39 CHAPTER 2: TECHNOLOGIES, COST, AND EFFECTIVENESS 2.1 Overview of Technologies 2 -3 2.2 Overview of Technol ogy Cost Methodology 2 - 4 2.3 Heavy Duty Pickup Truck and Van Technologies and Costs 2 - 11 2.4 Heavy Duty Engines 2 - 21 2.5 Class 7/8 Day Cabs and Sleeper Cabs 2 -35 2.6 Class 2b - 8 Vocational Trucks 2 - 63 2.7 Air Conditioning 2 - 74 2.8 Trailers and GHG Emission Reduction Opportunities 2 - 78 2.9 Other Fuel Consumption and GHG Reducing Strategies 2 - 82 2.9.1 Auxiliaries 2 - 82 2.10 Summary of Technology Costs Used in this Analysis 2 - 89 CHAPTER 3: TEST PROCEDURES

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3.1 Heavy Duty Engine Test Procedure 3 - 2 3.2 Aerodynamic Assessment 3 - 6 3.3 Tire Rolling Resistance 3 - 21 3.4 Drive cycle 3 - 22 3.5 Tare Weights and Payload 3 - 26 3.6 Heavy Duty Chassis Test Procedure 3 -30 3.7 Hybrid Powertrain Test Procedures 3 -31 3.8 Light Heavy Duty Chassis Test Procedure 3 -39 CHAPTER 4: VEHICLE SIMULATION MODEL 4.1 Purpose and Scope 4 - 2 4.2 Model Code Description 4 -3 4.3 Feasibility of Using a Model to Simulate Testing 4 - 5 4.4 EPA and NHTSA Vehicle Compliance Model 4 - 6 4.5 Application of Model for Certification 4 - 15 CHAPTER 5: EMISSIONS IMPACTS 5.1 Executive Summary 5 - 2 5.2 Introduction 5 - 2 5.3 Program Analysis and Modeling Methods 5 - 4 5.4 Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts 5 - 7 5.5 Non - Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts 5 - 7 5.6 Assessment of the Impact of Credit Programs 5 - 9 CHAPTER 6: RESULTS OF PROPO S ED AND ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS 6.1 What are the alternatives that the agencies considered? 6 - 2 6.2 How do these alternatives compare in overall GHG emissions reductions and fuel efficiency and cost? 6 - 9

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CHAPTER 7: TRUCK COSTS AND COSTS PE R TON OF GHG EMISSI ONS REDUCED 7.1 Costs Associated with the Proposed Program 7 - 2 7.2 Cost per Ton of GHG Emissions Reduced 7 - 5 7.3 Impacts of Reduction in Fuel Consumption 7 - 6 CHAPTER 8: HEAL TH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 8.1 Health and Environmental Effects of Non - GHG Pollu tants 8 - 2 8.2 Air Quality Impacts of Non - GHG Pollutants 8 -35 8.3 Quantified and Monetized Non - GHG Health and Environmental Impacts 8 - 40 8.4 Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, Global Mean Temperature, Sea Level Rise, and Ocean pH Associated with the Proposal’s GHG Emissions Reductions 8 - 46 8.5 Monetized CO2 Impacts 8 - 52 CHAPTER 9: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS 9.1 Framework for Benefits and Costs 9 - 2 9.2 Rebound Effect 9 -3 9.3 Other Economic Impacts 9 - 12 9.4 The Effect of Safety Standards and Voluntary Safety Improvements on Vehicle Weight 9 - 17 9.5 Petroleum and energy security impacts 9 - 21 9.6 Summary of Benefits and Costs 9 -32 9.7 Economy Wide Impacts 9 -35 CHAPTER 10: SMALL BUSINESS FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS

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### v List of Acronyms $2,005 U.S. Dollars in calendar year 2005 μg Microgram μg/m3 Microgram per Cubic Meter μm Micrometers AC Alternating Current ACES Advanced Collaborative Emission Study APU Auxiliary Power Unit AQCD Air Quality Criteria Document ASPEN Assessment System for Population Exp osure Nationwide AT A American Trucking Association ATRI Alliance for Transportation Research Institute avg Average BAC Battery Air Conditioning BenMAP Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program bhp Brake Horsepower bhp

- hrs Brake Horsepower Hours BTS Bureau of Transportation BTU British Thermal Unit CAA Clean Air Act CAE Com

puter Aided Engineering CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy CARB California Air Resources Board CCP Coupled Cam Phasing Cd Coefficient of Drag CDC Centers for Disease Contro l CFD Com

putational Fluid Dynamics CFR Code of Federal Regulations CH4 Methane CILCC Com

bined International Local and Commuter Cycle CITT Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality CO Carbon Monoxide CO 2 Carbon Dioxide COI Cost of Illness COPD Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease CoV Coefficient of Variation CRGNSA Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area CSI Cambridge Systematics Inc. CVD Cardiovascular Disease DE Diesel Exhaust DEAC Cylinder Deactiviation DEF Diesel Exhaust Fluid DHHS U.S. Department of Health and Human Services DOC Diesel Oxidation Catalyst DOE Department of Energy DOT Department of Transportation DPF Diesel Particulate Filter DPM Diesel Particulate Matter

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DR Discount Rate DRIA Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis EC Elemental Carbon ED Emergency Department EGR Exhaust Gas Recirculation EIA Energy Information Administration (part of the U.S. Department of Energy) EMS

- HAP Emissions Modeling System for Hazardous Air Pollution EO Executive Order EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPS Electric Power Steering EPS Electrified Parking Spaces ERG Eastern Research Group EV Electric Vehicle F Frequency FH WA Federal Highway Administration FIA Forest Inventory and Analysis FOH Fuel Operated Heater FR Federal Register g Gram gal Gallon GDP Gross Domestic Product GEOS Goddard Earth Observing System GHG Greenhouse Gases GIFT Geospatial Intermodal Freight Transportation GUI Graphical User Interface GVW Gross Vehicle Weight Rating GWP Global Warming Potential HAD Diesel Health Assessment Document HC Hydrocarbon HD Heavy

- Duty HDUDDS Heavy Duty Urban Dynamometer Driving Cycle HEI Health Effects Institute HES Health Effects Subcommittee HEV Hy

brid Electric Vehicle HF ET Highway Fuel Economy Dynamometer Procedure hp Horsepower hrs Hours HSC High Speed Cruise Duty Cycle HTUF Hy

brid Truck User Forum hz Hertz IARC International Agency for Research on Cancer ICCT International Council on Clean Transport ICD International Classification of Diseases ICF ICF International IMPROVE Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments IRIS Integrated Risk Information System ISA Integrated Science Assessment JAMA Journal of the American Medical Association k Thousand kg Kilogram

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km Kilometer kW Kilowatt L Liter lb Pound LD Light

- Duty LSC Lo w Speed Cruise Duty Cycle m2 Square Meters m3 Cubic Meters MD Medium

- Duty mg Milligram mi mile min Minute MM Million MOVES Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator mp g Miles per Gallon mp h Miles per Hour MSAT Mobile Source Air Toxic MY Model Year N2O Nitrous Oxide NA Not Applicable NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NAICS North American Industry Classification System NAS National Academy of Sciences NATA National Air Toxic Assessment NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCI National Cancer Institute NCLAN National Crop Loss Assessment Network NEC Net Energy Change Tolerance NEI National Emissions Inventory NESCCAF Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future NESHAP National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NiMH Nickel Metal

- Hydride NIOSH National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health NMHC Nonmethane Hydroc arbons NMMAPS National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study NO Nitrogen Oxide NO 2 Nitrogen Dioxide NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOx Oxides of Nitrogen NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking NPV Net Present Value NRC National Research Council NVH Noise Vibration and Harshness O&M Operating and maintenance O 3 Ozone OAQPS Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards OC Organic Carbon OE Original Equipment OEHHA Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment

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OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer OHV Overhead Valve OMB Office of Management and Budget ORD EPA's Office of Research and Development OTAQ Office of Transportation and Air Quality Pa Pascal PAH Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons PEMS Portable Emissions Monitoring System PHEV Plug

- in Hybrid Electric Vehicles PM Particulate Matter PM10 Coarse Particulate Matter (diameter of 10 μm or less) PM2.5 Fine Particulate Matter (diameter of 2.5 μm or less) POM Polycyclic Organic Matter ppb Parts per Billion p pm Parts per Million psi Pounds per Square Inch PTO Power Take Off R&D Research and Development RBM Resisting Bending Moment RESS Rechargeable Energy Storage System RfC Reference Concentration RIA Regulatory Impact Analysis rpm Revolutions per Minute RRc Rolling Resistance Coefficient SAB Science Advisory Board SAB

- HES Science Advisory Board

- Health Effects Subcommittee SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SBA Small Business Administration SBAR Small Business Advocacy Review SBREFA Small Busi ness Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act SCC Social Cost of Carbon SCR Selective Catalyst Reduction SER Small Entity Representation SGDI Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct INjection SIDI Spark Ignition Direct Injection SO 2 Sulfur Dioxide SOC State of Charge SOHC Single Overhead Cam SOx Oxides of Sulfur STB Surface Transportation Board SUV Sport Utility Vehicle SVOC Semi

- Volatile Organic Compound TIAX TIAX LLC TRU Trailer Refrigeration Unit TSD Technical Support Document TSS Thermal Storage U/DAF Upward and Downward Adjustment Factor UCT Urban Creep and Transient Duty Cycle UFP Ultra Fine Particles USDA United States Department of Agriculture

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UV Ultraviolet UV

-b Ultraviolet

-b VIUS Vehicle Inventory Use Survey VMT Vehicle Miles Travelled V OC Volatile Organic Compound VSL Value of Statistical Life VVT Variable Valve Timing WTP Willingness

- to - Pay WTVC World Wide Transient Vehicle Cycle WVU West Virginia University

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