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TREASURY DEPARTMENT MONTHLY LENDING AND INTERMEDIATION SNAPSHOT

Summary Analysis for November 2009

Summary Analysis

Economic Environment

Treasury's twelfth survey of banks' activities was conducted as economic and financial

conditions continued to improve, though the economy remained weak.  Real GDP grew 2.2

percent in the third quarter, the first rise in four quarters.  Data released for November and

December suggest the economy will grow solidly in the quarter, as components of spending

continued to improve.  Consumer spending increased in November for the second straight

month.  Consumer purchases of autos rose throughout the fourth quarter, and consumer

optimism improved in December.  Home sales were mixed in November, with existing home

sales rising but new home sales falling.  House prices stabilized, and some measures have

moved higher over the past few months through October.  Mortgage rates remained at low

levels in November and December, providing some support to sales.  Business spending on

durable goods continued to rise through November, pointing to some stabilization in business

investment spending.  Labor market conditions remained weak in November and December,

but suggested the employment situation was stabilizing.  The unemployment rate remained at

10 percent in November and December, which was down slightly from October although it

remained near 26‐year highs.  Payroll jobs posted a small gain in November – the first increase

since December 2007 – but payrolls fell noticeably again in December.  Payroll job losses have

been getting smaller during 2009; losses averaged about 200,000 in the third quarter, but a

much smaller 69,000 per month in the fourth quarter.  Measures of financial risk suggest that

some markets have improved.  The LIBOR‐OIS spread narrowed from a peak of 365 basis points

on October 10, 2008 to around 10 basis points in November and December 2009. The spread

between Baa corporate bonds and the 10‐year Treasury note averaged about 280 basis points

in November and December, nearly half its level of a year earlier. The VIX, which hit an all‐time

high in October 2008, has returned to pre‐crisis norms.  Private forecasters expect the economy

to continue to grow in 2010, although the unemployment rate is projected to remain high

throughout 2010, as payroll jobs increase modestly.
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November Survey Results

Annual Results1

The total average outstanding balance of all loans increased 6 percent from November 2008 to

November 2009 and total originations increased 17 percent from November 2008.

Compared to November 2008, the total outstanding mortgage balance increased 22 percent.  

Total mortgage originations increased 91 percent from November 2008 to November 2009.  

Refinancing originations drove the increase, rising 170 percent over the year, while new home

purchases rose 43 percent.  Low interest rates over the past year contributed to the dramatic

increases.  The total outstanding balance of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) increased 8

percent from November 2008 to November 2009.  Respondents noted however that through

2009 demand for new HELOC lines and loans was below 2008 levels.  Accordingly, HELOC

originations declined 45 percent from November 2008 to November 2009.   Since November

2008, the total outstanding balance of credit card loans decreased 8 percent and total

originations of credit card loans decreased 28 percent.   In other consumer lending products,

the total outstanding balance increased 15 percent from November 2008 to November 2009,

and total originations increased 15 percent.  

Respondents consistently indicated that demand in the commercial sector was muted during

the past year.  The total outstanding balance of commercial and industrial (C&I) loans fell 6

percent from November 2008 to November 2009, while renewals increased 7 percent and new

commitments decreased 3 percent.  The total outstanding balance of commercial real estate

(CRE) loans increased 18 percent from November 2008 to November 2009.  Total renewals of

CRE loans increased 23 percent from November 2008 to November 2009, while new CRE

commitments decreased 51 percent.

Monthly Results

The overall outstanding loan balance (of all respondents) was flat from October to November at

the top 22 participants in the Capital Purchase Program (CPP), while total originations of new

loans increased 2 percent from October to November.  In November, the 22 surveyed

institutions originated approximately $244 billion in new loans.  Total originations of loans by all

respondents rose in 4 categories (mortgages, credit card loans, C&I renewals of existing

accounts, and C&I new commitments) and fell in 4 loan categories (HELOCs, other consumer

lending products, CRE renewals of existing accounts, and CRE new commitments).  

                                                           

1 Year over year changes will be calculated only for the original Top 21 CPP recipients and will exclude data from

Hartford Financial Services Group as data begin in June 2009.  Year over year increases may in part be reflective of

acquisition activity (namely Bank of America’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch, PNC Financial Services Group’s

acquisition of National City Corporation and Wells Fargo & Company’s acquisition of Wachovia Corporation) as

data are not merger adjusted.
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New home purchases fell in November while refinancing originations rose in November.  

Seasonality contributed to the decline in new home purchases despite favorable rates.  HELOCs

saw a decrease in total originations, and institutions indicated that demand remains below

2008 levels.  Outstanding credit card balances held by the surveyed institutions fell 1 percent in

November despite modest increases in consumer spending due to the holiday season.  Other

consumer lending declined as November is a seasonally slow time.  Banks reported that

demand in the commercial sector remain well below normal levels.  Despite low demand, C&I

renewals and new commitments rose in November.  CRE renewals and new commitments

declined in November.  Small business loan originations also deceased in November.

• The total average outstanding balance of all loans was flat from October to November.

The median change in total average outstanding balances was a decrease of 1 percent.  

Of the 22 respondents, 4 reported increases in total outstanding balances from October

to November (the largest increase was 7 percent) while 18 respondents experienced

decreases in total outstanding balances (the largest decrease was 2 percent).  Total

originations of all loans increased 2 percent from October to November.   Across all

institutions, the median change in total originations was a decrease of 1 percent.  Of the

22 respondents, 10 experienced increases in total originations from October to

November and 12 experienced decreases in total originations.  

• The total outstanding mortgage balance of all respondents was flat.  Total mortgage

originations by all respondents increased by 4 percent, driven by increases in refinancing

originations.  The median change in total mortgage originations was an increase of 7

percent.  Refinancing mortgage originations rose 12 percent from October to

November.  New home purchase originations decreased 5 percent from October to

November.  Seasonality contributed to the decline in new home purchases despite

favorable rates.  The favorable rates, however, boosted refinancing originations.

• The total outstanding balance of HELOCs fell by 1 percent from October to November.  

Total HELOC originations fell 15 percent in November.  The median change in

originations was a decrease of 11 percent from October to November.  Respondents

noted that the pool of qualified HELOC borrowers has declined as home values have

depreciated and that demand remained below 2008 levels.   

• The total credit card outstanding balance of all respondents fell 1 percent in November.  

Of the 14 respondents active in the credit card business, 5 experienced increases in

outstanding balances and 9 experienced decreases in outstanding balances.  Total credit

card originations by all respondents increased by 14 percent in November, though the

median change in credit card originations was a decrease of 4 percent.   

• The total outstanding balance of other consumer lending products was flat in

November.  Of the 19 institutions active in other consumer lending, 7 institutions

experienced increases in outstanding balances, while 12 institutions experienced
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decreases in outstanding balances.  Total other consumer loan originations decreased

by 28 percent from October to November.  The median percentage change in other

consumer loan originations was a decrease of 14 percent.   

• The total outstanding balance of C&I loans was flat in November; the median change in

average outstanding C&I balances was an increase of 1 percent.  Economic uncertainty

has caused businesses to downsize, cut costs, reduce inventories, and delay capital

expenditures.  Lower overall merger and acquisition activity further contributed to the

decreased demand for C&I credit.  Nearly all respondents indicated that, throughout the

recession, demand in C&I lending has remained well below pre‐recession levels.  

Companies continued to focus on preserving liquidity, strengthening their balance

sheets, building cash reserves and paying down existing debt rather than taking on new

debt.    

Total renewals of existing C&I accounts increased 1 percent in November, and the

median change in renewals was a decrease of 2 percent.  Total new C&I commitments

increased 6 percent in November, and the median change in new commitments was an

increase of 20 percent.    

• Demand for new CRE loans remains low due to the lack of new construction activity.

Real estate developers are reluctant to begin new projects or purchase existing projects

under current poor economic conditions, which include a surplus of office space as firms

downsize and vacancies rise.  Finally, nearly all respondents indicated that they are

actively reducing their exposure to CRE loans, as banks expect CRE loan delinquencies to

persist and forecasters expect weakness in the CRE market to continue.  The

outstanding balance of CRE loans of all respondents was flat in November, and the

median change in outstanding balances was a decrease of 1 percent.    

Total renewals of existing CRE accounts decreased 4 percent from October to

November.  The median change in CRE renewals from October to November was an

increase of 4 percent.  Total new CRE commitments decreased 20 percent from October

to November, and the median change in new commitments was a decrease of 14

percent.    

• In November, total small business outstanding balances2 were flat, and the median

change in small business outstanding balances was a decrease of 1 percent.  Total small

business originations decreased by 18 percent.  The median change in small business

originations was a decrease of 9 percent.  

• The chart on page 7 (“Change in Loan Originations, November 2009 vs. October 2009”)

illustrates the range of changes in loan originations among the 22 institutions.  The bar

2 Small business loan data were first reported in April 2009 data and are not included in the year over year

reporting.
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on the far right, for example, indicates that the median change of loan originations of all

types was a decrease of 1 percent in from October to November; originations of all

types fell by 6 percent for the institution at the 25th percentile, and originations of all

types rose by 12 percent for the institution at the 75th percentile.  There was

considerable variability in lending activity across in the commercial sector (C&I and CRE).
Name First Mortgage HELOC (Lines and Increases)

US Card

(Managed):

Initial Line

Amount

Other Consumer

Lending

C & I: Renewal of

Existing

Accounts

C & I: New

Commitments

CRE: Renewal of

Existing

Accounts

CRE: New

Commitments Small Busin

American Express N/A N/A $1,257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 

Bank ofAmerica $27,713 $919 $1,340 $1,447 $14,788 $8,648 $3,020 $154 $1

Bank ofNew York Mellon $63 $3 N/A $0 $38 $15 $89 $0 

BB&T $1,867 $43 $151 $240 $492 $979 $1,353 $367 Capital One $109 $17 $217 $332 $125 $342 $51 $159 

CIT N/A N/A N/A $0 $2,465 $297 $0 $0 

Citigroup $3,338 $90 $6,874 $888 $1,404 $1,924 $139 $37 

Comerica $34 $9 $18 $26 $2,935 $461 $326 $80 

Fifth Third $1,648 $75 $103 $307 $1,548 $1,078 $471 $132 

Goldman Sachs $17 $0 $0 $14 $820 $4,308 $282 $190 

Hartford $0 $0 N/A $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 

JPMorgan Chase $12,325 $122 $3,811 $2,479 $15,213 $14,474 $598 $542 KeyCorp $153 $71 $0 $17 $1,073 $519 $693 $72 

Marshall & Ilsley $203 $64 $6 $43 $182 $65 $43 $40 

Morgan Stanley $15 $0 N/A $289 $617 $3,292 $0 $0 Northern Trust $105 $49 N/A $112 $708 $295 $31 $83 

PNC $761 $264 $137 $210 $3,607 $2,000 $401 $159 

Regions $689 $77 N/A $76 $1,415 $862 $1,439 $173 

State Street N/A N/A N/A N/A $890 $482 $2 $0 

SunTrust $2,867 $89 $4 $316 $966 $851 $210 $171 U.S. Bancorp $4,082 $326 $831 $732 $3,936 $2,191 $753 $462 

Wells Fargo $31,161 $379 $1,209 $1,809 $8,217 $9,223 $2,014 $862 $2

Total (All Institutions) $87,149 $2,597 $15,958 $9,336 $61,438 $52,307 $11,915 $3,684 $6

Monthly change in Total (All Institutions) 3 4% ‐15% 14% ‐28% 1% 6% ‐4% ‐20% ‐

Annual change in Total (All Institutions) 4 91% ‐45% ‐28% 15% 7% ‐3% 23% ‐51% 

First MortgagesHELOCUS Card (Managed)

C & I

CRESmall Business

N/ANOTE: Reliance on internal reporting means that aggregation by loan category varies for each

reporting bank. Because ofthe differences in loan category definitions, comparisons of origination

levels across firms may be imperfect.

US credit cards (managed)

Loans secured by first liens on residential real estate

Home equity lines of creditCommercial and industrial

Commercial real estateDenotes recipient is not active in this category

Loans to small businesses

1 These loans are already accounted for in either consumer lending, commercial lending, or a combination of both.2 Total Originations does not include the "Small BusinessOriginations" column.3 Monthly percentage changes are calculated versusOctober 2009 figures.3 Annual percentage changes are calculated versusNovember 2008 figures. Annual changes will be calculated only for the original Top 21 CPP recipients and will exclude data from Hartford Financial Services Gr

Loan Originations, November 2009

($ Millions)

Loan Category Key
First Mortgage HELOC (Lines and Increases)

US Card

(Managed):

Initial Line

Amount

Other

Consumer

Lending

C & I: Renewal

of Existing

Accounts

C & I: New

Commitments

CRE: Renewal

of Existing

Accounts

CRE: New

Commitments

Sma

Ori

75th Percentile 13% ‐2% 20% ‐7% 29% 66% 45% 7% 25th Percentile 1% ‐17% ‐18% ‐30% ‐13% ‐14% ‐16% ‐39% 

Median 7% ‐11% ‐4% ‐14% ‐2% 20% 4% ‐14% 

Total (Across All Institutions) 4% ‐15% 14% ‐28% 1% 6% ‐4% ‐20% 

‐60%‐40%‐20%

0%

20%40%60%80%

Change in Loan Originations

November2009 vs. October 2009
November 2008 November 2009 Change

First Mortgage $718.6 $876.3 21.9%

HELOC $509.2 $551.1 8.2%

US Card (Managed) $644.5 $591.7 ‐8.2%

Other Consumer Lending $413.1 $475.2 15.0%

C & I $1,160.4 $1,092.1 ‐5.9%

CRE $443.9 $523.7 18.0%

Small Business1 N/A $256.8 ‐‐‐

Total Outstanding Loan Balances $3,889.6 $4,110.1 5.7%

Total Outstanding Loan Balances, Top 21 CPP Participants

November 2008 vs. November 2009

$ Billions

November 2008 November 2009 Change

First Mortgage $45.6 $87.1 91.1%

HELOC (Lines and Increases) $4.7 $2.6 ‐45.2%

US Card (Managed): Initial Line Amount $22.1 $16.0 ‐27.9%

Other Consumer Lending $8.1 $9.3 14.6%

C & I: Renewal of Existing Accounts $57.3 $61.4 7.3%

C & I: New Commitments $54.0 $52.3 ‐3.2%

CRE: Renewal of Existing Accounts $9.7 $11.9 23.3%

CRE: New Commitments $7.5 $3.7 ‐51.0%

Small Business1 N/A $6.9 ‐‐‐

Total Originations $209.1 $244.4 16.9%

First Mortgages

HELOC

US Card (Managed)

C & I

CRE

Small Business

Total Loan Originations, Top 21 CPP Participants

November 2008 vs. November 2009

$ Billions

Loans to small businesses

Loan Category Key

Loans secured by first liens on residential real estate

Home equity lines of credit

US credit cards (managed)

Commercial and industrial

Commercial real estate

Notes:

All totals exclude data from Hartford Financial Services, which began reporting in June 2009.

Because ofthe differencesin loan category definitions, comparisons offigures acrossfirmsmay be

imperfect.  

1 These loans are already accounted for in either consumer lending, commercial lending, or a combination

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$2,288 $2,494

$1,616 $1,616

$3,904

$4,110

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$ Billions

Average Outstanding Loan Balance, Top 21 CPP Participants

October 2008 ‐ November 2009

Total Consumer Loans Total Commercial Loans Total Loans

Total consumer loans are defined asfirstmortgages, home equitylines of credit, credit card loans, and other consumer loans.  Total commercial loans are defined as commercial & industrial loans and

commercialreal estate loans.  Total loans are defined asthe sum oftotal consumer loans andtotal commercial loans.  All totals exclude data from HartfordFinancial Services, which beganreporting in June

2009.

Data are not merger adjusted.  Large increases  from December2008to January 2009may in partbe reflective of acquisitions(Bank of America's acquisitionof Merrill Lynch, PNC Financial ServicesGroup's

acquisition ofNational City Corporation,andWells Fargo &Company's acquisition ofWachoviaCorporation).  

$105

$115

$160

$129

$265

$244

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$ Billions

Total Originations, Top 21 CPP Participants

October 2008 ‐ November 2009

Total Consumer Loans Total Commercial Loans Total Loans

Total consumer loans are defined asfirstmortgages, home equitylines of credit, credit card loans, and other consumer loans.  Total commercial loans are defined as commercial & industrial loans and

commercialreal estate loans.  Total loans are defined asthe sum oftotal consumer loans andtotal commercial loans.

All totals exclude data fromHartford Financial Services, whichbegan reportingin June 2009.

Data are not merger adjusted.  Large increases  from December2008to January 2009may in partbe reflective of acquisitions(Bank of America's acquisitionof Merrill Lynch, PNC Financial ServicesGroup's

acquisition ofNational City Corporation,andWells Fargo &Company's acquisition ofWachoviaCorporation).  

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