Regulatory Impact Analysis 

EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0162

NHTSA-2010-XXXX

Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis:

Proposed Rulemaking to Establish Greenhouse Gas 

Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for 

Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles

Office of Transportation and Air Quality

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

and

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Regulatory Impact Analysis 

i

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1: INDUSTRY CHARACTERIZATION

1.1 Introduction: 1-3

1.2 Truck Classes 1-8

1.3 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Truck Segments 1-10

1.4 Operations 1-16

1.5 Tire Manufacturers 1-28

1.6 Current U.S. and international GHG voluntary actions and regulations 1-32

1.7 Trailers 1-35

1.8 Hybrids 1-39

CHAPTER 2: TECHNOLOGIES, COST, AND EFFECTIVENESS

2.1 Overview of Technologies 2-3

2.2 Overview of Technology Cost Methodology 2-4

2.3 Heavy Duty Pickup Truck and Van Technologies and Costs 2-11

2.4 Heavy Duty Engines 2-21

2.5 Class 7/8 Day Cabs and Sleeper Cabs 2-35

2.6 Class 2b-8 Vocational Trucks 2-63

2.7 Air Conditioning 2-74

2.8 Trailers and GHG Emission Reduction Opportunities 2-78

2.9 Other Fuel Consumption and GHG Reducing Strategies2-82

2.9.1 Auxiliaries 2-82

2.10 Summary of Technology Costs Used in this Analysis 2-89

CHAPTER 3: TEST PROCEDURES
ii

3.1 Heavy Duty Engine Test Procedure 3-2

3.2 Aerodynamic Assessment 3-6

3.3 Tire Rolling Resistance 3-21

3.4 Drive cycle 3-22

3.5 Tare Weights and Payload 3-26

3.6 Heavy Duty Chassis Test Procedure 3-30

3.7 Hybrid Powertrain Test Procedures 3-31

3.8 Light Heavy Duty Chassis Test Procedure3-39

CHAPTER 4: VEHICLE SIMULATION MODEL

4.1 Purpose and Scope 4-2

4.2 Model Code Description 4-3

4.3 Feasibility of Using a Model to Simulate Testing 4-5

4.4 EPA and NHTSA Vehicle Compliance Model 4-6

4.5 Application of Model for Certification 4-15

CHAPTER 5: EMISSIONS IMPACTS

5.1 Executive Summary 5-2

5.2 Introduction 5-2

5.3 Program Analysis and Modeling Methods 5-4

5.4 Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts 5-7

5.5 Non-Greenhouse Gas Emission Impacts 5-7

5.6 Assessment of the Impact of Credit Programs 5-9

CHAPTER 6: RESULTS OF PROPOSED AND ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS

6.1 What are the alternatives that the agencies considered? 6-2

6.2 How do these alternatives compare in overall GHG emissions reductions and fuel 

efficiency and cost? 6-9
iii

CHAPTER 7: TRUCK COSTS AND COSTS PER TON OF GHG EMISSIONS 

REDUCED

7.1 Costs Associated with the Proposed Program 7-2

7.2 Cost per Ton of GHG Emissions Reduced 7-5

7.3 Impacts of Reduction in Fuel Consumption 7-6

CHAPTER 8: HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

8.1 Health and Environmental Effects of Non-GHG Pollutants 8-2

8.2 Air Quality Impacts of Non-GHG Pollutants 8-35

8.3 Quantified and Monetized Non-GHG Health and Environmental Impacts 8-40

8.4 Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, Global Mean Temperature, Sea 

Level Rise, and Ocean pH Associated with the Proposal’s GHG Emissions Reductions

8-46

8.5 Monetized CO2 Impacts 8-52

CHAPTER 9: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS

9.1 Framework for Benefits and Costs 9-2

9.2 Rebound Effect 9-3

9.3 Other Economic Impacts 9-12

9.4 The Effect of Safety Standards and Voluntary Safety Improvements on Vehicle 

Weight 9-17

9.5 Petroleum and energy security impacts 9-21

9.6 Summary of Benefits and Costs 9-32

9.7 Economy Wide Impacts 9-35

CHAPTER 10: SMALL BUSINESS FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS
iv
v

List of Acronyms

$2,005 U.S. Dollars in calendar year 2005

μg Microgram

μg/m3 Microgram per Cubic Meter

μm Micrometers

AC Alternating Current

ACES Advanced Collaborative Emission Study

APU Auxiliary Power Unit

AQCD Air Quality Criteria Document

ASPEN Assessment System for Population Exposure Nationwide 

ATA American Trucking Association

ATRI Alliance for Transportation Research Institute

avg Average

BAC Battery Air Conditioning

BenMAP Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program

bhp Brake Horsepower

bhp-hrs Brake Horsepower Hours

BTS Bureau of Transportation 

BTU British Thermal Unit

CAA Clean Air Act

CAE Computer Aided Engineering

CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy

CARB California Air Resources Board 

CCP Coupled Cam Phasing

Cd Coefficient of Drag

CDC Centers for Disease Control

CFD Computational Fluid Dynamics

CFR Code of Federal Regulations

CH4 Methane

CILCC Combined International Local and Commuter Cycle

CITT Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology

CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality

CO Carbon Monoxide

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

COI Cost of Illness

COPD Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

CoV Coefficient of Variation

CRGNSA Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area

CSI Cambridge Systematics Inc.

CVD Cardiovascular Disease

DE Diesel Exhaust

DEAC Cylinder Deactiviation

DEF Diesel Exhaust Fluid

DHHS U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

DOC Diesel Oxidation Catalyst

DOE Department of Energy

DOT Department of Transportation

DPF Diesel Particulate Filter

DPM Diesel Particulate Matter
vi

DR Discount Rate

DRIA Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis

EC Elemental Carbon

ED Emergency Department

EGR Exhaust Gas Recirculation

EIA Energy Information Administration (part of the U.S. Department of Energy)

EMS-HAP Emissions Modeling System for Hazardous Air Pollution

EO Executive Order

EPA Environmental Protection Agency

EPS Electric Power Steering

EPS Electrified Parking Spaces

ERG Eastern Research Group

EV Electric Vehicle

F Frequency

FHWA Federal Highway Administration

FIA Forest Inventory and Analysis

FOH Fuel Operated Heater

FR Federal Register

g Gram

gal Gallon

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEOS Goddard Earth Observing System

GHG Greenhouse Gases

GIFT Geospatial Intermodal Freight Transportation

GUI Graphical User Interface

GVW Gross Vehicle Weight Rating

GWP Global Warming Potential

HAD Diesel Health Assessment Document

HC Hydrocarbon

HD Heavy-Duty

HDUDDS Heavy Duty Urban Dynamometer Driving Cycle

HEI Health Effects Institute 

HES Health Effects Subcommittee 

HEV Hybrid Electric Vehicle

HFET Highway Fuel Economy Dynamometer Procedure

hp Horsepower

hrs Hours

HSC High Speed Cruise Duty Cycle

HTUF Hybrid Truck User Forum

hz Hertz

IARC International Agency for Research on Cancer

ICCT International Council on Clean Transport

ICD International Classification of Diseases

ICF ICF International

IMPROVE Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments

IRIS Integrated Risk Information System

ISA Integrated Science Assessment

JAMA Journal of the American Medical Association

k Thousand

kg Kilogram
vii

km Kilometer

kW Kilowatt

L Liter

lb Pound

LD Light-Duty

LSC Low Speed Cruise Duty Cycle

m2 Square Meters

m3 Cubic Meters

MD Medium-Duty

mg Milligram

mi mile

min Minute

MM Million

MOVES Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator

mpg Miles per Gallon

mph Miles per Hour

MSAT Mobile Source Air Toxic

MY Model Year

N2O Nitrous Oxide

NA Not Applicable

NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards

NAICS North American Industry Classification System 

NAS National Academy of Sciences

NATA National Air Toxic Assessment 

NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCI National Cancer Institute

NCLAN National Crop Loss Assessment Network

NEC Net Energy Change Tolerance

NEI National Emissions Inventory

NESCCAF Northeast States Center for a Clean Air Future

NESHAP National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants

NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NiMH Nickel Metal-Hydride

NIOSH National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health

NMHC Nonmethane Hydrocarbons

NMMAPS National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study

NO Nitrogen Oxide

NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

NOx Oxides of Nitrogen

NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

NPV Net Present Value

NRC National Research Council

NVH Noise Vibration and Harshness

O&M Operating and maintenance

O3 Ozone

OAQPS Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

OC Organic Carbon

OE Original Equipment

OEHHA Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment
viii

OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer

OHV Overhead Valve

OMB Office of Management and Budget

ORD EPA's Office of Research and Development

OTAQ Office of Transportation and Air Quality

Pa Pascal

PAH Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

PEMS Portable Emissions Monitoring System

PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

PM Particulate Matter

PM10 Coarse Particulate Matter (diameter of 10 μm or less)

PM2.5 Fine Particulate Matter (diameter of 2.5 μm or less)

POM Polycyclic Organic Matter

ppb Parts per Billion

ppm Parts per Million

psi Pounds per Square Inch

PTO Power Take Off

R&D Research and Development

RBM Resisting Bending Moment

RESS Rechargeable Energy Storage System

RfC Reference Concentration

RIA Regulatory Impact Analysis

rpm Revolutions per Minute

RRc Rolling Resistance Coefficient

SAB Science Advisory Board

SAB-HES Science Advisory Board - Health Effects Subcommittee

SAE Society of Automotive Engineers

SBA Small Business Administration

SBAR Small Business Advocacy Review

SBREFA Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act

SCC Social Cost of Carbon

SCR Selective Catalyst Reduction

SER Small Entity Representation

SGDI Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct INjection

SIDI Spark Ignition Direct Injection

SO2 Sulfur Dioxide

SOC State of Charge

SOHC Single Overhead Cam

SOx Oxides of Sulfur

STB Surface Transportation Board

SUV Sport Utility Vehicle

SVOC Semi-Volatile Organic Compound

TIAX TIAX LLC

TRU Trailer Refrigeration Unit

TSD Technical Support Document

TSS Thermal Storage

U/DAF Upward and Downward Adjustment Factor

UCT Urban Creep and Transient Duty Cycle

UFP Ultra Fine Particles

USDA United States Department of Agriculture
ix

UV Ultraviolet

UV-b Ultraviolet-b

VIUS Vehicle Inventory Use Survey

VMT Vehicle Miles Travelled

VOC Volatile Organic Compound

VSL Value of Statistical Life

VVT Variable Valve Timing

WTP Willingness-to-Pay

WTVC World Wide Transient Vehicle Cycle

WVU West Virginia University

This Page Intentionally Left Blank