# NEMA Pre s entati on DOE Workshop June 1, 1999 

# NEMA 

# Presentation DOE 

## Workshop June 1, 1999

# Error s in the Analys e s
• Derivation of Input Watts • Non-use of Marginal Electricity Prices • Coefficient of Utilization • Analyzing fixtures rather than ballasts • Three and four lamp fixtures using two magnetic ballasts v. one electronic ballast 

## • Spreadsheet input functions don't wor'^: 

# Errors in the Analyses • Derivation of Input Watts • Non-use ofMarginal Electricity Prices • Coefficient ofUtilization • Analyzing fixtures rather than ballasts • Three and four lamp fixtures using two magnetic ballasts v. one electronic ballast • Spreadsheet input functions don't work

# Di g Muted Item s in Analys e s
• Ballast Prices • T12 versus T8 comparison • Electricity prices for magnetic ballast users same as electronic • Discount rates 

# Disputed Items in the Analyses • Ballast Prices • Tl2 versus 

# T8 comparison • Electricity prices for magnetic ballast users same as electronic • Discount rates

# Life G yc

# Jte Cost Resu AEO 1999 minus CMER* Ballast Types LCC

Savings 1L " M EEM cc -$6 ERS $7 ERS, T8 $20 2 Lamp EEM CC ERS, T8 $1

$24 2F96T12(C) EEM EIS $17 2F96T12II® (I) EEM CC -$1 ERS $13 4% Savings as % of LCC -4% 5% 13%
0% 11%
4%
0% 3% -$5

$2 $12 $0 $16 $9 8%

-4%

2%

3%
0% 2% LCC Savings -$5 -$4

$0 16% 28%

Savings LCC Savings as % of Savings as % of LCC LCC -5% -4% 4%
0% 4%
0% -$5

-$8 -$3 -7%

-12% -4%
-$2 -2% -$6 -4% -1% -$10 -4% *with correct NEMA inputs except marginal average electricity prices for the population of magnetic ballast purchasers 

# Life Cycle Cost Results AEO 1·999 

## minus 

# CMER

# *
Ballast Types Lee Savings Savings as% of

Lee Lee Savings Savings

-1% -1% Lee Savings

*with correct NEMA inputs except marginal average electricity prices for the population of magnetic ballast purchasers Savings as% of

Lee

# Life Cycle Cost Results M agnetic users Marginal El ectricity Prices* Ballast Types
CC ERS ERS, T8 ^ La EEM
2F96T12 (C EEM EIS 2F96T 1213® EEM LCC

Savings -$7 $6 $17

-$3 $10 Savings

as % of LCC
4% 12% 8%

LCC Savings Savings as % of

LCC

*with correct NEMA inputs 

# Life Cycle Cost Results Magnetic users Marginal Electricity Prices*
Ballast Types Lee Savings Lee Savings as % of Savings Lee Savings Savings as % of Savings Lee Lee

*with correct NEMA inputs

# LC C Sen s itiv ity Result s P ercent Lo ser s if El e ctronic Standard * D iscount Rate 4% 8% Ballast Type 1 F40T 12 26.6% 49.9% 2F40T 12 22.4% 46.6% 2F32T8 vs. 0.5% 2.3% 2F40T 12 2F96T 12 (C) 9.4% 24.7% 2F96T 12H® (I) 26.0% 44.5% 16% 28 % 8 1. 8 % 96. 8 % 80.3% 95. 8 % 11.6% 39.9% 59.5% 8 7.7% 71.9% 91.0% *with correct NEMA inputs except marginal average electricity prices for the population of magnetic ballast purchasers 

# LCC Sensitivity Results Percent Losers ifElectronic Standard* Discount Rate 4% 8% 16% 28% Ballast TYQe 1F40T12 26.6% 49.9% 81.8% 96.8% 2F40T12 22.4% 46.6% 80.3% 95.8% 2F32T8 vs. 0.5% 2.3% 11.6% 39.9% 2F40T12 2F96T12 (C) 9.4% 24.7% 59.5% 87.7% 2F96T12HO (I) 26.0% 44.5% 71.9% 91.0%

*with correct NEMA inputs except marginal average electricity prices for the population of magnetic ballast purchasers

# * Tational Ene rgy S avmg
Quads Quads plus HVAC Total Benefit Costs NPV 

## F^^

# esults*
1B 2A 3A 3B 4A 4 1.84 1.59 2.81 1.84 1.59 2.81 3.22 3.09 4.92 2.51 1.65 2.64 0.71 1.44 2.27 S preadsheet do es NOT functi on

*For units sold from 2003 to 2030 , discounted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $), using NE MA Ballast Prices, AEO 1999 Reference Forecast minus Consumer Marginal Energy Rates ( 5.7%), coefficient of utilization (CU) corrections , and corrected ballast wattages 

# ational Energy Savings Results 

# *
Scenario IB 2A 2B 3A 3B 4A 4B Quads l.84 l.59 2.81 Quads plus l.84 l.59 2.81 HVAC Spreadsheet does NOT function Total Benefit 3.22 3.09 4.92 Costs 2.51 l.65 2.64 NPV 0.71 l.44 2.27

*For units sold from 2003 to 2030, discounted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $), using NEMA Ballast Prices, AEO 1999 Reference Forecast minus Consumer Marginal Energy Rates (5.70/0), coefficient of utilization (CU) corrections, and corrected ballast wattages

# Manufacturer impact Analy sis

inanc i a impact s • Existing manufacturers of magnetic and electronic ballasts and the industry as a whole would suffer, under every scenario, substantial reductions in cash flow, profitability, and net present value 

## • Manufacturers that produce both magnetic and electronic ballasts, would lose 39% - 54% of their value, and the industry as a whole would lose 28% - 36% of its value 

# Manufacturer Impact Analysis Results - Financial Impacts • Existing manufacturers ofmagnetic and electronic ballasts and the industry as a whole would suffer, under every scenario, substantial reductions in cash flow, profitability, and net present value • Manufacturers that produce both magnetic and electronic ballasts, would lose 39% ... 54% oftheir value, and the industry as a whole would lose 28% .. 36% of its value

# Manufacturer Imp act An aly s i s IF e sult s - r a sh Fl ows CASH FLOW TOTALS - SUB GROUP 1 Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts : Electronic Ballast Standard 60
50
40
30
20
10 --®- Base Standard

0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

# anufacturer Impact Analysis R suIts .. Cash Flows CASH FWW TOTALS - SUBGROUP 1

Fluorescent Lamp BaJJosts: Electronic Ballast Standard**60~--~----------------------------------------~** so 40 §**~** 30 20 10**o~--------------------------------------------~**

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ""'-Base --Standard6UP 44 

# ier Imp act Anal ysis

• The SIA does not contain an adequate comparable examination of impacts on allied producers, such as lamp manufacturers and luminaire manufacturers • The SIA's cursory analysis of impacts on allied producers is especially unjustified because of DOE's focus on fixtures and lighting systems in conducting its life cycle 

## cost analysis 

# Supplier Impact Analysis • The SIA 

## does not contain an adequate comparable examination of impacts on allied producers, such as lamp manufacturers and luminaire manufacturers 

# • The SIA' 

## s cursory analysis of impacts on allied producers is especially unjustified because ofDOE's focus on fixtures and lighting systems in conducting its life cycle cost analysis

## ?I'er Hrnpact A Sup 1 

# F inancial , • The supplier industries in aggregate lose between $7 million and $21 million NPV, 16% - 39% of their value 

## • Over 300 US jobs would be lost due to an amended ballast standard • One and possibly two plants would be closed 

# upplier Impact Analysis R sultsFinancial Impacts • The supplier industries in aggregate lose between $7 million and $21 million NPV,



## 16% - 39% oftheir value • Over 300 

## US jobs would be lost due to an amended ballast standard • One and possibly two plants would be closed

# Summ ary

The only standard the analyses justify is a reaffirmation of the existing standards 

## • LCC and NES are badly flawed, they cannot be cited for any conclusion The MIA rebuttal presumption - plant closures - job losses - negative financial impact 

# • Rulemaking process should be stopped 

# ummary • The only standard the analyses justify is a reaffirmation ofthe existing standards • LCC and NBS are badly flawed, they cannot be cited for any conclusion • The MIA rebuttal presumption

- plant closures -job losses

- negative financial impact 

## • Rulemaking process should be stopped

# Market Penetration of Electromc liasts • Electronic ballast penetration of the total commercial and industrial lighting market increased to 55% in 1998 

## • 63% of ballasts used for new construction, renovations and retrofits were electronic in 1998 - 70% of the lamps operated by these ballasts were operated by electronic ballasts in 1998 

# Market Penetration 

# ofElectronic Ballasts • Electronic ballast penetration ofthe total commercial and industrial lighting market increased to 55% in 1998 • 63 % 

## ofballasts used for new construction, renovations and retrofits were electronic in

1998

- 70% ofthe lamps operated by these ballasts were operated by electronic ballasts in 1998

# Market Penetration Electronic Ballast Shipments Census Es ti m ate La mps d Re po rt Total In dus y B allas te d 10 B allast 1 0 Class Class S hi ents Comm/Ind Comm/Ind
..................................... 1993 24,448 22,913 59,574 1994 24,606 25,991 67.577

................ ........ ...... ......................... ................ ... .............................................. .... ....... ........ ......... . .. . .. ... . .. .... 1996 , , ,

............................. ............... ................................... .............................. .................... .. ................................................. . .............................................................................................. 1997 36,543 35,447 92,161 32,894 33,100 86,060 342 29 30 735 77 311
....................................... ..............................................................:............. .... .......................................... 1998 39,783 1 37,794 98,264 

# Market Penetration Electronic Ballast Shipments

# V 

# i arket Penetration Magnetic B allas t Shipm ents

Census Es ti mate d Es ti mate d Umps e R port NEMA 10 Resi de ntial Total Indus try: B all as te d B allast Class Product Class Class 10 Shi pments Shi pments Shipments Comm/In Comm/In
., 1993 54,790 ............ ...............39,091 120 38 971 76,773 ....................................: ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1994 55,991 36,154 130 36,024 70,967 1995 47,648 33,020 340 32, 680 64,380 1996 42,841 1997 42,887 1998 42,561 1400 30,075 59,248 31475 ; .................. , 33,959 2,900 31,059 61,186 34,343 3,400 30,943 60,958 

# arket Penetration Magnetic Ballast Shipments
Census 

# I NEMA 10 Estimated. Estimated 

### I Lamps Reportl Residential 

### I Total Industryl Ballasted 10 Ballast 

### I Class Product! 10 Class ! Class

. Shipments 

## I Shipments l Shipments 

### I CommlInd 

### I CommlInd

## =:~~~::r:=~~,~~::==l:~~~l:~:J:=~~~:I:~~,~~~=:J::=:~~~~.

## :I~~=h.~~=~Jr:=~~:==·=·::~·Jf==~~~4:I~~[~~~~~ 1995 340

# :~~g:=r=!=~.

# Market Penetration Lamps Ballasted by Electronic Ballasts

'Total B allasts ectronic Total Lamps Shi pments Ballasts B allaste d' Fl ectronicall y 1993 61 ,884 37%

........................................ .............. . ....... ....................... ............... ... ...... ...... ........................................... ,.... ..... ..... .. . . ........ ..... . .................... ....... ........... 1994 62,015 42% 138,544 49%

.................................. ...................... 1995 65,780 50% 150440 57%

........................................ ........................................ ....................... . .............................................................................i .. .
. . ... .. ... . .. . ................ ......... .. . ... . ... .. ....... ...... ...................... 559 57 ®/®...................... 1996 ........................59.,810...............::.............. 50 ®/®.................... 1369

................... ........... ............................ ................................................... .................................................... .. . .. ;..........................................

506 1997 66 ,

,....................................................................................................................................................................:.............................................................

53 % 153 348 60 % 159,222 62% 1998 68,737 55% 

# arket Penetration Lamps Ballasted by Electronic Ballasts

:: Percent Total 

## I Percent Lamps**~** Total Ballasts:i Nectronic Lamps 

### I Ballasts

1998 : 68,737 :: 550/0 i : 159,222, 62%

# Market Penetration= 1998 Ballast Shipments to OEM's and Distributors

26,456 OEM/Di s tr ibu tor 1998 10 C las s Comm/Ind

ectr l c Magnetic t Total Dis 11,338 37,794 21041 9 902 1 3094 3 , 

# Market Penetration

1998 Ballast Shipments to OEM's and Distributors

:1 FJectronic**:~ ~I**  Magnetic I"

# iAarket penetration 1998 Ballast Shipments in the Replacement and the New Construction / Renovation / Retrofit Markets

Ballasts Re pl ace ment

Magnetic Electronic Total
.......................... ..... ......... ................................ ......... ....................................... 9,407 567 9,974 New Cons truction/Renovati on/Retrofit Percent Magnetic Electronic Total Electronic 21,536 37,227 58,763 63 % Lamps Ballasted 18.531 1,474 20,005 42,427 96,790 139,217 7 0 % 

# Market Penetration

1998 Ballast Shipments in the Replacement and the New Construction / Renovation / Retrofit Markets Replacement.. .. . .**~** NewConstruction/RenovationIRetrofit

# =~==**===:::.:::.===::~.~2=:.~~:= :·:=:::==·f~=:":F==1~e::~'**  Lamps Ballasted Magnetic I Electronic I Total Magnetic I Electronic I Total 

## IElectronic

# OE Supported Market 1- givers

• Revised ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 - Adopt rule to include revision in EPACT 1992 - Encourage states to adopt - Education 

## • DOE Federal Building Energy Standard • FEMP • Vision 2020 

# DOE Supported Market Drivers • Revised ASHRAE/IESNA 

## 9001

- Adopt rule to include revision in EP ACT 1992

- Encourage states to adopt

- Education 

## • DOE 

## Federal Building Energy Standard 

# • FEMP • Vision 2020

# Other M arket Driv er s
• Energy Cost Savings Council • Energy Star Light Right Consortium • National Dimming Initiative 

# Other Market Drivers • Energy Cost Savings Council • Energy Star • Light Right Consortium • National Dimming Initiative