Commercial Market Assessment for Crew and Cargo Systems

Pursuant to 

Section 403 of the NASA Authorization Act of 2010 (P.L. 111-267) 

April 27, 2011 
2

Table of Contents

Executive Summary..................................................................................................................... 3

Section 1.0: Introduction ............................................................................................................ 5

Section 2.0: Commercial Crew and Cargo Transportation Systems – Not a New 

Concept.......................................................................................................................................... 5

Section 3.0: A Look at how NASA and the FAA Developed this Report............................ 7

Section 4.0: Definition of a Market ........................................................................................... 8

Section 5.0 Non-Government Markets ................................................................................... 11

Section 5.1: Space Tourism ................................................................................................ 15

Section 5.2: Applied Research and Technology Development ..................................... 17

Section 5.3: Other Markets.................................................................................................. 21

Section 5.4: Market Aggregation ......................................................................................... 23

Section 6.0: Other Relevant Considerations ........................................................................ 24

Section 6.1: U.S. Government Market for Commercial Crew and Cargo Capabilities24

Section 6.2: How Government Interest/Action Can Help Spur Markets....................... 28

Section 6.3: Government Catalyst for Commercial Cargo and Crew ........................... 29

Section 7.0: Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 31

Bibliography................................................................................................................................. 33

Appendix A – Historical Astronaut Flights by National Interests ........................................ 37

Appendix B – Discussion of Cost Effectiveness of Commercial Cargo Effort .................. 40
3

Executive Summary

NASA prepared this commercial market assessment in response to direction in Section 301b of the 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration Authorization Act of 2010 (P.L. 111-267). The specific 

requirements of this report are outlined below and are applicable to NASA’s current exploration program. 

SEC. 403. Commercial Market Assessment

(2) COMMERCIAL MARKET ASSESSMENT.—Not later than 180 days after the date of the 

enactment of this Act, the Administrator shall submit to the appropriate committees of Congress an 

assessment, conducted, in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration‘s Office of 

Commercial Space Transportation, for purposes of this paragraph, of the potential non-Government 

market for commercially-developed crew and cargo transportation systems and capabilities, 

including an assessment of the activities a ssociated with potential private sector utilization of the 

ISS research and technology development capabilities and other potential activities in low-Earth 

orbit.

In performing this assessment, NASA, in consultation with the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) 

Office of Commercial Space Transportation, incorporated the following assumptions:

A 10-year time horizon was used. 

The assessment was limited to non-U.S. Government markets (i.e., commercial markets and 

demand from other countries), per the Authorization Act. 

The assessment focused on commercial crew and cargo ―systems‖ defined as systems intended to 

deliver crew and cargo to the ISS or other destinations, not elements of the system such as launch 

vehicles and spacecraft, per the Authorization Act. Thus, systems that deliver communications 

satellites or similar payloads to orbit were not considered. 

NASA and the FAA relied primarily on publicly-available data sources. 

A range of outcomes is provided, with a lower end reflecting historical trends and an upper end 

reflecting industry inputs on growth. 

This report groups likely commercial cargo and crew markets as follows:

National Interests: This category includes countries lacking indigenous human space 

transportation capability who desire to send astronauts and cargo into space to perform scientific 

research, acquire technical knowledge, and increase national prestige.

Space Tourism: This category includes spaceflight participants who are not flying under the 

direct employment or financial sponsorship of a company or government organization. 

Applied Research and Technology Development: This category includes customers interested 

in space-based research activities aboard in-space platforms, such as the International Space 

Station (ISS). Such research activities may lead to downstream commercial and/or societal 

application.

Other markets: This category includes satellite servicing, media and entertainment and 

education markets. 
4

Based on our review, the estimated total aggregated size of these markets, for non- U.S. Government 

commercial crew and cargo services over a 10-year period, is reflected in Figure 1:

Figure 1: Aggregated Non-U.S. Governmental Markets, Ten Year Total

The ―lower end‖ of the projection is essentially an extrapolation of historical flight rates, assuming there 

is no change in the historically-demonstrated flight rates for crew and cargo transportation services. The 

―upper end‖ of the projection incorporates industry inputs on the potential growth of the markets since 

industry has done the most analysis on the actual size of the markets and how those markets contribute to 

their specific business cases. Most likely, the actual flight rates for commercial cargo and crew systems 

over the next ten years will fall within the lower and upper end of the range. A precise forecast of flight 

rates would have limited utility at this time because of the major unknowns associated with the systems 

such as price, availability date, and the technical characteristics of the systems. 

To be clear, this report does not characterize the ―demand‖ for commercial cargo and crew services –

something that is difficult to quantify at this stage. Instead, this report will show what is best described as 

―flight rate projections‖ of cargo and crew systems, constrained in many cases by the available supply and 

other factors. The actual demand for cargo and crew services could be many times the flight rate 

projections shown in this report. In addition, these projections do not include NASA ISS crew and cargo 

needs.

NASA believes that the projections described in this report are more than sufficient to justify Government 

support for the development and demonstration of commercial cargo and crew systems, especially 

considering that the U.S. Government has a demonstrated need for commercial cargo and crew 

transportation to/from the ISS. According to one established aerospace company involved in NASA’s 

commercial crew efforts, this base Government market alone is sufficient to close its business case. The 

commercial markets assessed in this report provide a potential upside further strengthening the potential 

for success. NASA also believes its approach to cargo and crew system development will be more cost 

effective than a more traditional approach to space system development. (Please see Appendix B.)

NASA’s commercial crew and cargo programs are intended to provide technical and financial assistance 

to the U.S. industry to develop commercial space transportation capabilities. Additional support is 

provided by NASA being a long-term customer, providing a market base for commercial crew and cargo 

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Cargo

Pounds (lbs.)

Lower End

Upper End

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Crew

Astronaut Flights
5

services. If successful, these programs will not only help NASA by providing assured access to the ISS

and allowing NASA to focus its limited resources on exploring beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), but it will 

also help the Nation by strengthening our industrial base, developing a new high-tech industry, and 

strengthening our economy.

Section 1.0: Introduction

While NASA’s commercial cargo efforts have been underway since 2005, and NASA has been 

purchasing commercial services for robotic spacecraft launches since 1988, NASA is just beginning its 

Commercial Crew Program. The primary objective of this program is to facilitate the development of a 

U.S. commercial crew space transportation capability with the goal of achieving safe, reliable, and cost 

effective access to and from LEO and the ISS. Once the capability is matured and available to customers, 

NASA plans to purchase transportation services to meet its ISS crew rotation and emergency return 

needs.

NASA plans to follow an alternative business method that allows U.S. industry more design ownership of 

their space systems and requires those companies to invest private capital to complement Government 

funds. This is similar to the approach NASA is using for the commercial cargo effort. NASA plans to 

award competitive, pre-negotiated, milestone-based agreements that support the development, testing, and 

demonstration of multiple commercial crew systems with a fixed Government investment. NASA also 

plans to use a unique Government insight/oversight model featuring a core team of sustaining engineering 

and discipline experts who closely follow the development of the vehicles. Additionally, NASA plans to

use tailored human rating requirements, standards, and processes, with NASA providing the final crew 

transportation system certification.

This strategy is more of a ―commercial like‖ approach to the development of a crew transportation system

than NASA has traditionally pursued. One of the primary benefits of using this approach is its potential 

for cost effectiveness. NASA has seen the initial signs that this approach does, in fact, reduce costs 

through the commercial cargo efforts. (Please see Appendix B for a discussion of the cost effectiveness 

of the commercial cargo activity.)

To reduce the cost to the Government of a commercial program, it is important that the Government not

be the only customer. Therefore, NASA is establishing a framework for the commercial crew program

that could support multiple customers (e.g., U.S. and international astronauts and personnel, scientists, 

spaceflight participants) for a variety of reasons (e.g., science, research, station operations, tourism), 

including NASA personnel as crew or participants. In doing so, the question of other customers becomes 

important and that is the subject of this report.

Section 2.0: Commercial Crew and Cargo Transportation Systems – Not a New Concept.

The concept of commercial crew and cargo transportation systems has been studied for decades. Through 

much of the history of the Space Shuttle Program, for example, there have been studies about turning over 

operations of some or all of the orbiters to the private sector, in order to fly missions for private customers 

as well as for NASA. 

In the mid-2000s, several studies and activities provided new impetus for commercial crew and cargo 

efforts. The 2004 ―Vision for Space Exploration‖ directed NASA to ―pursue commercial opportunities 

for providing transportation and other services supporting the ISS and exploration missions beyond low 
6

Earth orbit (LEO) ...‖ In 2004, the final report of the President’s Commission on Implementation of the 

U.S. Space Exploration Policy (popularly known as the Aldridge Commission) recommended that the 

Government take steps to stimulate development of commercial space capabilities, specifically 

recommending that ―NASA recognize and implement a far larger presence of private industry in space 

operations with the specific goal of allowing private industry to assume the primary role of providing 

services to NASA, and most immediately in accessing LEO.‖ 

In 2005, NASA initiated the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) project, an effort to 

invest financial and technical resources to stimulate efforts within industry to develop and demonstrate 

safe, reliable, and cost-effective space transportation capabilities, using a fixed Government investment 

along with industry financial investment to augment the total funding. Under COTS, two companies, 

Orbital Sciences Corporation and Space Exploration Technologies, Inc. (SpaceX), are actively developing 

new privately owned and operated cargo transportation systems, including both spacecraft and launch 

vehicles, which are planned to transport cargo to and from the ISS. 

The NASA Authorization Act of 2005 (PL 109-155) directed NASA to study ―the means, other than the 

Space Shuttle and the Crew Exploration Vehicle, including commercial vehicles, that may be used to 

ferry crew and cargo to and from the ISS.‖ In 2008, the U.S. Congress passed the NASA Authorization 

Act of 2008 (PL 110-422), which stipulated, ―In order to stimulate commercial use of space, help 

maximize the utility and productivity of the ISS and enable a commercial means of providing crew 

transfer and crew rescue services for the International Space Station, NASA shall - - make use of 

commercially provided International Space Station crew transfer and rescue services to the maximum 

extent practicable...‖

In 2009, the Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee (commonly referred to as the 

Augustine Committee) included commercial crew transportation systems in its assessment of options for 

future human spaceflight activities and found that such systems are ―within reach‖ given industry’s 

current capabilities. ―While this presents some risk, it could provide an earlier capability at lower initial 

and life-cycle costs than government could achieve,‖ the report stated. 

In 2010, NASA invested $50 million of stimulus funds under the Commercial Crew Development 

(CCDev) initiative in five partners to mature commercial crew technologies, concepts, and capabilities

(Blue Origin, Boeing, Paragon, Sierra Nevada, United Launch Alliance). On February 1, 2010, the 

Administration released its Fiscal Year 2011 budget request, which provided $6 billion over the next five 

years to support the development, testing, and demonstration of multiple commercial crew systems. This 

was followed in June 2010 by a new U.S. National Space Policy, which directed NASA to ―seek 

partnerships with the private sector to enable safe, reliable, and cost-effective commercial spaceflight 

capabilities and services for the transport of crew and cargo to and from the ISS.‖

After considerable debate in Congress, a commercial crew development program was formally endorsed 

in the NASA Authorization Act of 2010 (PL 111-267), which was signed by the President on 

October 11, 2010. The law stated, ―Congress restates its commitment ... to the development of 

commercially developed launch and delivery systems to the ISS for crew and cargo missions. Congress 

reaffirms that NASA shall make use of United States commercially provided ISS crew transfer and crew 

rescue services to the maximum extent practicable.‖ 
7

Section 3.0: A Look at how NASA and the FAA Developed this Report

This study makes a number of assumptions in order to complete a feasible, reasonable market assessment 

within the time frame of the Congressional language. These assumptions include:

A 10-year time horizon: This report looks out for the next 10 years on the markets. The United 

States has committed to operating the ISS through 2020, which makes estimates on potential 

market size extremely uncertain beyond that timeframe. In addition, other uncertainties about the 

rate of technology development, changes in financial markets, and unforeseen innovations or 

other disruptions make assessments beyond a 10-year horizon of limited utility. However, 

potential trends in the markets beyond 10 ten years are discussed later in this report for 

completeness.

Limit to non-U.S. Government markets: Per the NASA Authorization Act of 2010, NASA is 

directed to conduct an assessment ―of the potential non-Government market‖ for commercial 

crew and cargo systems. For the purposes of this report, the term ―non-Government‖ includes 

commercial users as well as other governments outside the United States. 

Focus on commercial crew and cargo systems: The NASA Authorization Act of 2010 

specifically mentions ―commercial crew and cargo transportation systems‖, which for this report

is interpreted to mean the crew or cargo spacecraft in conjunction with its launch vehicle. In 

some cases, launch vehicles being developed or upgraded to support commercial crew and cargo 

systems may have additional applications, most notably satellite launches. Those additional 

markets are not included in the market assessment, as they do not require the complete 

crew/cargo system. These markets are discussed later in this report for completeness.

Reliance on publicly-available data sources: Given the 180-day deadline provided in the 

NASA Authorization Act of 2010, NASA relied on readily available data sources that could be 

disseminated publicly. Thus, the assumptions and conclusions in this report reflect the current

body of knowledge regarding commercial crew and cargo markets as of early March 2011. 

A range of outcomes is provided: Because of the uncertainties associated with future 

commercial crew and cargo markets (described later in this report), the output of this assessment 

is provided in ranges. The lower ends of the ranges are essentially extrapolations of historical 

flight rates assuming there is no change in the historically-demonstrated flight rates for crew and 

cargo transportation services. The upper end of the ranges incorporates industry estimates of the 

potential growth of the individual markets based on available data, or data willingly shared with 

NASA for the purposes of this report. Most likely, the actual flight rates for commercial cargo 

and crew systems over the next 10 years will fall within the lower and upper end of the range. 

As mentioned, the upper ends of the ranges were developed by leveraging primarily industry inputs 

regarding the potential size of the various markets. Industry, not NASA, will bear the ultimate 

responsibility for developing the commercial markets described in this report; and private industry, not 

NASA, is where the expertise for market analysis resides. Government estimates of the future size and 

growth rate of commercial markets have usually been of very limited value. The U.S. Government can 

facilitate and help enable these markets to grow. But, private industry will have to make it happen. 

It should also be noted that the assessment contained in this report does not characterize ―demand‖ for 

cargo and crew services. Market demand is extremely difficult to assess. For space tourism, the only 

professional, publicly-available study of demand was the 2002 Futron Space Tourism Market Study. 

Instead, the assessment in this report incorporates available data and industry assumptions of supply, 

demand, and other factors to produce flight rate projections for cargo and crew markets. The cargo 
8

market is characterized in terms of pounds of cargo flown to space; the crew market is characterized in 

terms of astronaut flights, also known as ―seats.‖ In some cases, actual ―demand‖ could be significantly

higher than the flight rate projections shown in this report because demand for commercial cargo and 

crew transportation will almost certainly be constrained over the next decade by the limited availability of 

transportation systems, i.e., supply.

Section 4.0: Definition of a Market

The emergence of a price-based market where firms compete to provide crew transportation into orbit 

around the Earth to private American citizens and corporations has yet to occur. Nonetheless, American 

aerospace leaders – including Presidents, Members of Congress, NASA Administrators, corporate 

executives and aerospace engineers – have long discussed and foreseen the emergence of such a market. 

The question is not so much whether a non-Governmental market for commercial human spaceflight will 

emerge, but when and how we should expect such a market to develop. This report assesses the near-term 

potential for non-Governmental markets for spaceflight capabilities. This section provides a brief 

discussion of the nature of markets and how the forces of demand and supply interact to create them in 

the context of spaceflight.

Discussions of non-Governmental markets for spaceflight are complicated in part because the term 

―market‖ is itself variable and is often used to refer to quite different concepts. In economic terms, a 

market is a structure that allows for the exchange of goods and services by buyers and sellers. A critical 

component of a true market is existence of known prices for the goods and services exchanged within it. 

A market is also defined by having more than one buyer, and more than one seller. 

Markets form because they are an efficient way to connect the demand of buyers with the supply of 

sellers. A critical question with regard to commercial markets for spaceflight thus pertains to the 

potential non-Governmental demand for spaceflight. When questions are asked regarding the extent of 

the market for a product, often the heart of that question pertains to the extent of the demand for that 

product. The demand for a product is most commonly expressed as the amount of a product that buyers 

would like to purchase at a given price. 

We have information on the private demand for a one-week stay on the ISS but only when that week 

costs approximately $35 million, requires six months of training in Russia and when the supply schedule 

of flights is extremely constrained. What would the demand be if the price was below $10 million, or if 

the price were more than $100 million, or with more limited training on American soil, or with a more 

responsive supply system? These questions cannot be answered definitively until the capabilities exist to 

provide human spaceflight products with actual prices and features. 

However, we know that a significant number of people desire to travel into space and we know that many 

have expressed a willingness to pay significant prices to do so. Given that there is at least some 

demonstrated demand for non-Governmental human spaceflight, the current lack of commercial 

spaceflight capabilities may seem to be evidence that the cost and/or other barriers to entry have thus far 

been too high. But, the development and supply of spaceflight technologies takes time, and it is worth 

noting that over the past ten years, beginning roughly around the time of the first commercial flights to 

the ISS, American entrepreneurs and corporations have invested hundreds of millions of dollars of private 

capital to develop the technologies, production process, and organizations that they believe can profitably 

supply a market for space transportation, within an acceptable time horizon to the investors. As the 

knowledge, technologies, processes and communities capable of spaceflight become ever more 

widespread and competitive, the emergence of non-Governmental markets for human spaceflight is 

inevitable.
9

Factors Affecting the Size of Markets

The potential size of the market for commercial crew and cargo transportation is dependent on a variety 

of factors, including technical, schedule, financial, regulatory, political, accident rates, and miscellaneous. 

The uncertainties associated with these factors prohibit a single, quantitative forecast of the demand 

associated with these markets, which is why the size of the markets is characterized as a range of flight 

rate projections in this report. A discussion of the uncertainties and how they can help or hinder the 

development of these markets are addressed in the following sections.

Technical Factors

Technical capabilities, including vehicle capabilities and concepts of operation, will play a major role in 

addressing potential markets enabled by commercial crew and cargo systems. Companies have proposed 

or are developing a diverse range of crew and cargo vehicle concepts, and each will have its own unique 

set of capabilities, pricing, training requirements, passenger profiles, and constraints. In addition, NASA 

is some years away from selecting specific service providers. All of these uncertainties will affect the

actual size and growth of the markets for these systems. 

Orbital Platforms and Free-Flying Services

The availability of destinations in LEO for these vehicles, including the ISS as well as other proposed 

commercial destinations, will also affect the timing and size of non-Government markets. In the nearterm, the likely primary destination for commercial cargo and crew spacecraft will be the ISS. In addition 

to the ISS, the development of commercial orbital habitats has been proposed in recent years, most 

notably by Bigelow Aerospace of Las Vegas, which has thus far invested $215 million of its own money 

to pursue this market via the development of a next-generation private sector space station that leverages

expandable habitat technology (a technology originally conceived of by NASA but developed and put 

into practice by Bigelow Aerospace). Bigelow launched and fully tested in space two subscale prototypes 

of its expandable modules and has proposed a series of increasingly ambitious facilities in Earth orbit and 

beyond using larger versions of those modules. The company has publically announced its plans to 

deploy an initial space station as early as 2015, with a larger one to follow as early as 2017, pending 

availability of commercial crew and cargo transportation systems.

Some services would not require a separate orbital platform to visit, i.e., LEO could be considered a 

destination itself. Space tourism flights, for example, could be carried out by a crewed vehicle without 

visiting the ISS or another orbital destination; such free flights would be best suited for short-duration 

missions. SpaceX has proposed a concept called DragonLab that would turn the Dragon spacecraft into a 

free-flying laboratory carrying experiments for missions ranging from one week to two years in duration 

before returning to Earth. The wide range of potential platforms and free flying capabilities could greatly 

affect the size of the commercial crew and cargo markets. 

Schedule Factors

Within the 10-year time period analyzed in this study, the size of the commercial cargo and crew markets 

are dependent on when services become available. NASA has contracted with both Orbital and SpaceX 

for initial operational flights to ISS, to occur before the end of 2012. From that point forward, those 

companies will also have the capacity to provide services to other buyers. Both companies have 

experienced delays, and if operational dates slip further into the future, the amount of flights that could be 

provided through 2020 will shrink. Beyond the limits of this study, if the lifetime of the ISS is extended, 

the market for ISS cargo would continue as well.
10

The availability date of commercial crew services is less clear. Funding availability and technical 

progress will both play a very large part in when services will become available. 

Financial Factors

A major factor affecting market size is the cost to develop the system and the associated price that will be 

offered to customers. For commercial cargo, most of the development has been completed for the 

Falcon 9/Dragon and the Taurus II/Cygnus. Also, the initial price that NASA will pay for cargo 

transportation services has already been determined via the CRS contract awards. 

Development costs for potential commercial crew systems are more uncertain. NASA has not requested 

detailed cost estimates from industry for commercial crew transportation services and selections are some 

years away. For example, NASA’s Commercial Crew Transportation (CCT) Request for Information 

published on May 21, 2010, included the request: ―What is the approximate dollar magnitude of the 

minimum NASA investment necessary to ensure the success of your company’s CCT development and 

demonstration effort?‖ Industry responses were proprietary and cannot be released to the public. 

However, costs estimates from industry had a range of more than 700 percent from the lowest to the 

highest estimates. The magnitude of the development costs directly relates to the eventual price for 

services.

Additional uncertainty exists for commercial crew systems because NASA is planning to require industry 

to provide investment funds as part of any development agreement. The amount of private capital will 

vary between partners, and this capital could be provided from sources such as private investment, 

company revenue or venture capitalists. 

All these unknowns (development costs, amount of private capital, ROI levels, and payback periods) 

contribute to a large range and uncertainty in the eventual price that will be established for commercial 

crew transportation services, which will have a major impact on the market size. 

Regulatory and Certification Factors

Commercial spaceflight presents a number of liability risks to providers addressed to varying degrees by 

the current regulatory regime. Risks associated with the uninvolved public are already addressed by 

existing regulations. The regulatory regime is far less certain regarding spaceflight participants. Current 

U.S. law (the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004) does require operators of crewed 

vehicles to obtain the informed consent of any spaceflight participants to be flown prior to launch. 

However, informed consent may be insufficient to protect commercial crew vehicle operators from 

liability claims in the event of an accident. This uncertainty may make it difficult for providers to address 

this liability through insurance or other means.

Not only is the regulatory regime for human space transportation to LEO in development, but NASA’s 

crew transportation system certification requirements that will be used to certify the systems as safe for 

transporting NASA and NASA-sponsored personnel to and from the ISS are also in development. In 

December 2010, NASA released the ―Commercial Crew Transportation System Requirements for NASA 

LEO Missions‖ document that provides a consolidated set of requirements, standards, and processes that 

will be applied to the certification of a specific commercial crew transportation system for LEO missions.

However, the specific certification requirements applied to systems transporting crew to the ISS are still 

in work, which contributes to uncertainty in costs, pricing, and ultimately market size.
11

Accident Factors

An accident involving a commercial crew transportation system, particularly a crewed system, would 

have an adverse impact on both the vehicle operator as well as the overall commercial spaceflight 

industry. One potential outcome in the near-term, based on experience with accidents involving crewed 

government-operated spacecraft, is a stand-down of operations while the accident is investigated and 

corrective actions implemented. The operator would suffer a loss of revenue because of the lack of flights 

during the post-accident hiatus, as well as expenses involved in implementing corrective actions as a 

result of an investigation and repair or replacement of the vehicle involved in the accident. The company 

could also be liable for accident claims from families of the crew and/or spaceflight participants on the 

vehicle, or business losses from vehicle customers. 

These risks could be mitigated at least in part through regulations, such as laws in some states that 

immunize commercial spaceflight providers to liability claims from spaceflight participants in the event 

of injury or death, as well as through insurance. However, it is important to note that every mode of 

transportation has risk that results in loss of human life. If the U.S. is ever to achieve the goal of routine

commercial human access to space, then the industry must be able to respond to accidents likes all the 

other modes of transportation.

Miscellaneous Factors

Other external factors could also influence the market for commercial crew and cargo systems. One such 

factor is the development of similar systems outside the United States, subsidized partially or entirely by 

other governments, competing in the same commercial markets as U.S.-developed vehicles. For example, 

Russia has sold seats on Soyuz spacecraft to commercial customers. In January 2011, Space Adventures, 

the American company that markets Soyuz seats to commercial customers, announced that Russia would 

increase the production rate of Soyuz spacecraft from four per year to five, starting in 2013; this could make 

additional seats available for flights to the ISS. On the other hand, markets sometimes expand faster when 

there is more competition which may offset some of the affect of more providers.

Development of commercial crew and cargo markets depend in large part on the existence of the ISS as an 

anchor customer to support development of systems that can also serve those markets. An accident or other 

situation that diminishes the capabilities of the ISS, resulting in a reduction in crew and cargo requirements, 

or the worst-case scenario of the abandonment of the station, would adversely limit the U.S. Government’s 

need for commercial cargo and crew services. Space environment hazards such as the increase of orbital 

debris also pose risks that could adversely affect the market for commercial providers if a significant 

collision occurred.

Section 5.0 Non-Government Markets 

As described in Section 3.0, NASA’s study featured analysis of available data sources to identify 

potential non-Government markets that could be addressed by commercial crew and cargo systems within 

a 10-year time horizon. This analysis found four market segments most likely to be enabled by such 

systems in that time period:

National Interests: This category includes countries lacking indigenous human space 

transportation capability who desire to send astronauts and cargo into space to perform scientific 

research, acquire technical knowledge, and increase national prestige.
12

Space Tourism: This category includes spaceflight participants who are not flying under the 

direct employment or financial sponsorship of a company or government organization. 

Applied Research and Technology Development: This category includes customers interested 

in space-based research activities aboard in-space platforms, such as the ISS. Such research 

activities may lead to downstream commercial and/or societal application. 

Other markets: This category includes satellite servicing, media, and entertainment and 

education markets. 

Therefore, this section provides background and a description of those markets, describes the lower end 

of the market range based on historical flight rates, describes the upper end of the market range (i.e., 

market potential), and provides a discussion of unique constraints on the growth of the individual markets 

that may inhibit the realization of the market potential.

National Interests

Thirty-one nations without indigenous human spaceflight capabilities have sent 96 astronauts into orbit 

between 1978 and 2010. This total excludes Expedition flights of ISS Partner crew members flown 

pursuant to the ISS Partner Intergovernmental Agreement\Memoranda of Understanding. ‖National 

Interests‖ have sent astronauts into space on vehicles operated by Russia and the United States primarily 

through space agency-to-space agency or government-to-government exchanges, but in some cases 

through cash payments. Countries desire to send astronauts into space to perform scientific research, 

acquire technical knowledge, and increase national prestige. Historically, astronauts from such nations 

have performed missions that can be classified into three basic categories: short-duration visits to space 

stations, short-duration spacecraft missions such as those performed by the Space Shuttle, and longduration expeditions to space stations. Figure 2 summarizes the historical national interest flights. A 

more detailed description of these flights is provided in Appendix A.

Short Duration Space Station 

Visits – Salyut, Mir, ISS1

Space Shuttle Flights, 

excluding Flights to MIR and 

ISS2

Long Duration Space Station 

Visits - Mir and ISS 

Expeditions3

Total: 26 countries Total: 13 countries Total: 2 countries

54 astronaut flights 39 astronaut flights 3 astronaut flights

 

1

Space Station visits (first column) were relatively short-duration missions including Soyuz or Shuttle flights to the 

Salyut, Mir, and ISS with an average amount of time in space of approximately 12 days. These missions are 

performed primarily to increase national prestige, but may also include modest scientific research and technical 

knowledge objectives. 

2 Thirteen countries participated in Space Shuttle astronaut flights (second column), excluding Shuttle flights to Mir 

and ISS. The average duration of a Space Shuttle mission was about 11 days. Space Shuttle flights performed a 

range of missions. The Space Shuttle represented a unique capability with its large cargo bay and crew carrying 

capability. In some sense it was a self-contained space station.

3 Long-duration space station missions consisting of crew that keep a space station operating and perform some 

utilization are referred to as ―expeditions‖ (third column). By the nature of their long duration in space, expedition 

members are conducting research on how the human body adapts. In addition, expedition crew members have the 

opportunity to tend long-duration science and technology experiments. German and French astronauts have served 

aboard Mir and ISS as Expedition crew members. The average duration of Expeditions missions was about 180 

days.
13

Overall Total Countries: 31

Astronaut flights: 96

Figure 2: National Interests

Based on this historical experience, it is likely that the market for national interests of countries without 

indigenous human spaceflight capability will consist of at least two client types. The first type will be 

interested in short-duration missions to LEO, the ISS, or other space station for national prestige and 

scientific and technical research. A second type may be interested in longer-duration flights ranging from 

two weeks to six months. This sovereign client may desire to be the primary occupant of a space station 

or work as part of a mixed crew with astronauts from other nations. 

Historical Experience (Lower End of Range)

Figure 3 shows the historical number of astronaut flights for the National Interests market with a trend 

line: 

Figure 3: Historical Flight Rate of National Interests (Excluding the United States, Russia and China, 

and excluding ISS Partner crew members flown pursuant to ISS Partner Intergovernmental 

Agreement\Memoranda of Understanding.) 

In order to establish the ―Lower End‖ of the range for this market, the linear historical growth rate of the 

number of astronaut flights occurring annually (i.e., the trend line) was extrapolated into the future. This 

assumes that the historical flight experience will remain unchanged during the next 10 years. Based on 

this linear growth rate, the number of astronaut flights is projected to be 36 during the assessment period. 

Cargo transportation will be required in order to support these astronaut flights. Cargo includes items 

such as water, food, clothing, personal items, and life support maintenance consumables. It does not 

include cargo demand required to support other types of space station maintenance, propulsion, or 

research activity. Basic crew resupply requirements necessary to support a single astronaut can be 

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1 0
14

approximated based on NASA and Russian human spaceflight experience. The generic cargo resupply 

rate to support astronauts on the ISS is 10.3 lbs/day per crew member. 

Based on historical data shown in Figure 2, approximately 97 percent of the projected astronaut flights, or 

35 astronaut flights, will be short-duration missions. One astronaut flight will be a long-duration 

expedition-type mission. Based on a cargo estimate of 10.3 lbs/day per crew member, 35 short-duration 

missions of 12 days each would generate cargo demand of approximately 4,326 pounds. One longduration expedition mission of 180 days would therefore generate cargo demand of approximately 1,854 

pounds, for a grand total of 6,180 pounds.

Market Potential (Upper End of Range)

The market for nations without indigenous human spaceflight capability to purchase a flight to LEO, time 

onboard the ISS, or time onboard private space stations builds upon a history of such nations partnering 

with nations that operate human space transportation systems in order to travel into space. Historically, 

nations faced a fairly high cost barrier when pursuing human spaceflight. A commercial human space 

transportation system to LEO, in combination with an affordable space destination, may enable a much 

larger market for national interests. 

The upper end of the range for the National Interests market is based on input provided to NASA for the 

purposes of this report by Bigelow Aerospace. Bigelow Aerospace is targeting the National Interests 

market (also known as the Sovereign Client market) as a key part of its business strategy. Bigelow 

estimates that 30 flights will be accomplished during the assessment period to support its first operational 

space station. A second, larger space station is planned to be launched two years later and will require 45

- 60 flights will be accomplished to support that station during the assessment period. Each flight is 

planned to include three to five passengers total. 

For the purposes of the upper-end estimation, NASA assumed two of the passengers on each flight are 

part of the National Interests market segment, this results in a total of 150 to 180 astronaut flights over the 

assessment period. Adding the lower end of the range of 36 astronaut flights, which represents flights to 

the ISS for visits or short duration flights to LEO, the grand total for the upper end of the range is 186 to

216 astronaut flights over the assessment period. Using the cargo estimate of 10.3 lbs/day per crew 

member and assuming 12 day missions, the total for cargo to support the astronaut flights is projected to 

be approximately 18,540 to 22,248 pounds. By adding the lower end cargo estimate to this projection, a 

grand total of 24,720 to 28,430 pounds is projected. 

A strong positive indicator for this growth is the fact that Bigelow Aerospace has executed seven 

Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with a variety of national space agencies, companies, and 

governmental entities. These MOUs were signed with organizations in Japan, the United Arab Emirates, 

the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Australia. These MOUs demonstrate the 

strong potential for international clientele to utilize such systems, particularly given the current lack of 

existing commercial crew transportation. Additionally, these MOUs demonstrate that foreign interest is 

not limited or necessarily tied exclusively to the ISS.

The lower- and upper-end assessments of crew transportation and associated cargo to support the crew

over the 10-year period is summarized in Figure 4. 

National Interests Market Number of Astronaut Flights Amount of Cargo (lbs)

Lower End of Range 36 6,180
15

Upper End of Range 186 - 216 24,720 - 28,430

Figure 4: Summary of the National Interests Commercial Market (Cumulative over 10-Year Assessment) 

Constraints on Market Growth

The market for transportation services to support national interests will be strongly impacted by the 

availability of an affordable destination and transportation services to deploy astronauts and provisions. 

Commercially operated space crew transportation systems would be a new mode of operation for these 

customers. To date, all national interest missions have been conducted by government-operated 

transportation systems. Nations would need to become comfortable with the use of commercially 

operated transportation systems in order for commercial operators to grow this market. 

Section 5.1: Space Tourism

In the last decade, space tourism emerged as a new and potentially promising commercial spaceflight 

market. In April 2001, Dennis Tito became the first individual to pay his own way into space, flying on a 

Soyuz taxi flight to the ISS. Several other people have followed -- each paying tens of millions of dollars 

to spend a week or more on the ISS. 

For purposes of this report, the term ―space tourist‖ refers to a spaceflight participant who is not flying 

under the direct employment or financial sponsorship of a company or government organization. 

Spaceflight participants employed or financially sponsored by government organizations, such as national 

space agencies, for research and other activities are covered under the National Interests section. Space 

tourists, by comparison, either purchase a spaceflight opportunity themselves or through another private 

funding source (e.g., as a gift from a friend or family member, or through a sweepstakes). Tourists may 

engage in a variety of activities on their flights, based on experience from those who have flown in the 

last decade. 

Historical Experience (Lower End of Range)

Figure 5 lists those space tourists who have flown since 2001 and reported prices, based on published 

accounts of their flights:

Name Reported Trip 

Price Date Launched Date Returned Trip 

Duration

Dennis Tito $20M 4/28/2001 5/6/2001 9 days

Mark Shuttleworth $20M 04/25/2002 5/5/2002 11 days

Gregory Olsen $19M 11/1/2005 11/11/2005 11 days

Anousheh Ansari $20M 9/18/2006 9/29/2006 12 days

Charles Simonyi $25M 4/7/2007 4/21/2007 15 days

Richard Garriott $30M 11/12/2008 11/23/2008 12 days

Charles Simonyi $35M 3/26/2009 4/8/2009 14 days

Guy Laliberte $35M 9/30/2009 10/11/2009 12 days
16

Figure 5: Space Tourists, 2001-2010

The lower end of the range for the space tourist market over the next 10 years is estimated to be eight

astronaut flights (i.e., seats), by simply extrapolating the average historical flight rate. For cargo, the 

same assumption regarding the basic crew resupply requirements necessary to support astronauts on the 

ISS was used for spaceflight participants (10.3 lbs/day per crew member). Assuming that each flight lasts 

12 days (the same as the historical experience), the associated cargo market cumulatively over the 10-year 

forecast period is projected to be approximately 990 pounds.

Market Potential (Upper End of Range)

The future market for space tourism has engendered much speculation recently. However, most studies 

conducted to date suggest that market demand above the historical supply rate exists, although the lack of 

available crew transportation systems has delayed its development. In order to estimate the upper end of 

the space tourism market, input provided to NASA for the purposes of this report by Space Adventures

was leveraged. 

Space Adventures, the company which brokered every ISS space tourist flight to date, has developed its 

own forecast of future space tourist flights, taking into account development of commercial crew vehicles 

as well as the existence of orbiting space facilities besides the ISS. Their forecast calls for approximately 

143 passengers flying through 2020 (including direct sales to individuals, lottery/media, corporate 

business and research, education and institutions). NASA projects the associated cargo to support those 

143 astronaut flights to be approximately 17,700 pounds, based on an average stay time of 12 days and 

assuming the basic crew resupply requirements to equal those necessary to support astronauts on the ISS

(10.3 lbs/day per crew member). Figure 6 provides a summary of the space tourism market projections

for crew and associated support cargo. 

Space Tourism Market Number of Astronaut Flights Amount of Cargo (lbs)

Lower End of Range 8 990

Upper End of Range 143 17,700

Figure 6: Summary of Space Tourism Commercial Market (Cumulative Over 10-Year Assessment)

Constraints on Market Growth

Currently, there are several growth constraints to the space tourism market:

The availability of crew transportation systems for non-professional astronauts;

The cost to the customer; and 

The current lack of a destination besides the ISS.

There are several other factors that hamper the orbital space tourism market such as the long training 

time. While these constraints might be reduced in coming years, it is unlikely that all will cease to be 

important in the next decade. 

The availability of transportation is a significant limiting factor as only the Russian Soyuz is available to 

service this market and seats aboard the Soyuz are extremely limited. Following the late-2009 flight of 

Guy Laliberté, the Russian Federal Space Agency, Roscosmos, announced that there would be a hiatus on 

space tourism because all available Soyuz seats would be used for ISS crew rotations. Additional Soyuz 

seats may be available for tourists in a few years, as Space Adventures announced in early 2011 an 
17

agreement with Roscosmos and RSC Energia to increase the Soyuz production rate from four to five a 

year and thus offer three seats commercially starting in 2013. On the other hand, if U.S. industry is 

successful in developing commercial crew transportation systems, the availability of seats for space 

tourists could dramatically increase.

Cost is another apparent factor limiting commercial human spaceflight, as both customers and launch 

providers seek to obtain the best value they can. History has demonstrated that buying a ticket aboard an 

orbital rocket has never been cheap, and so far the only individuals capable of doing so have largely been 

independently wealthy. 

While the prices paid by space tourists to fly short-duration missions on the Russian Soyuz have

reportedly increased in recent years, this reported price is lower than what NASA pays primarily because 

NASA requires services for long-duration missions above and beyond those required by space tourists.

With existing ISS demand, Russia has little incentive to open up seats to space tourists. However, as 

mentioned above, Russian entities have publicly said they could increase Soyuz spacecraft production, 

pending completion of contracts, potentially freeing up seats for private tourists, provided they are willing 

to pay an as-yet-unspecified price.

Another constraint on the market is the availability of destinations in LEO that could be visited by 

tourists. Currently the only destination in LEO with life-support capabilities is the ISS; and, ISS crew 

aboard is currently limited to six long-duration crew based on crew rescue vehicle (Soyuz) capability.

The crew assignments on the ISS are regulated by the ISS Partners, with each ISS Partner allocated a 

specified amount of ISS crew on the station in accordance with the ISS Partnership agreements. 

However, Bigelow Aerospace is planning to deploy a series of private facilities that, while oriented 

toward serving the research and non-U.S. national interests markets, could also host tourists for short- or 

long-duration stays, thus supporting increased demand beyond what the ISS can accommodate. In 

addition, the development of crew transportation systems capable of free-flying LEO flights would offset 

the need for additional LEO destinations. 

Section 5.2: Applied Research and Technology Development

Applied research and technology development refers to the use of the microgravity environment and 

vantage point afforded by the ISS and other in-space platforms to conduct research activities that may 

lead to downstream commercial and/or societal application. Precursor basic research areas range across 

the spectrum of biology, chemistry and physics with applied research and technology development 

opportunities in medicine, materials, remote sensing, and future space technologies demonstration. 

In general, research moves along a continuum from basic research activities through applied and 

translational research to product development and enhancement (see Figure 7). Generally, the continuum 

begins with research seeking to test a theory or hypothesis (basic research) and concludes with a 

sustainable and repeatable outcome that creates value in terms of economic or social returns. In practice, 

research can begin at any phase of the continuum, and can proceed in a non-linear fashion. However, a 

weak level of investment in the visionary end of the continuum is likely to forestall success in the 

translational and product end of the pathway. As a scientific investigation moves down the continuum,

funding profiles change to include increasing amounts of private and commercial industries until a 

commercial product may emerge from the investigation – although this does not occur in all cases.
18

Figure 7: Source ProOrbis 2010

As an example of this pathway, basic research studying the reaction of the bacteria Salmonella 

typhimurium (a strain of bacteria responsible for the incidence of salmonella in humans) exposed to 

microgravity found increased virulence expressed by the bacteria in the space environment. Subsequent 

in-space experimentation identified the specific genes responsible for the virulence. Following this result, 

the private company Astogenetix, Inc. funded a series of experiments on the ISS focused on producing 

vaccine candidates—an example of preclinical, translational research. As of mid-2010, using results from 

the ISS experiments, the company is pursuing U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval of a 

Salmonella typhimurium vaccine as an investigational new drug. The company is also pursuing a similar 

investigation pathway for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, better known as MRSA.

Research activities onboard the ISS can be classified into four research disciplines. These categories 

provide a framework for analyzing the types of applied research and development activities that might be 

conducted in LEO. These categories are:

1. Biology and Biotechnology: The space environment (e.g. microgravity) is unique for biological 

systems, and can offer distinct insights into molecular, cellular, and organismic functions. As a 

novel environment, space provokes biological processes and responses that cannot be evoked on 

Earth and, as a result, biology and biotechnology research in the microgravity environment could 

lead to medical and commercially relevant applications. More than 70 percent of the research 

performed on the ISS has been in this category.

2. Earth Observation: The ISS offers a stage for observation of the Earth, with the added capacity 

for servicing of onboard instruments should it be necessary. In some cases this may offer 

operational advantages for the collection of Earth observation data over the use of satellites for 

the same purpose. 

3. Physical and Materials Science: The microgravity environment allows scientists to study 

physical properties, systems, and effects without the complicating factors provided by gravity. 

Long-term microgravity exposure permits scientific investigations to be conducted in a manner 

that allows the physical properties of the phenomena being studied to dominate the experiment, 

rather than the effects of gravity. 

4. Technology Development: The ISS provides a unique test bed for new technologies for use both 

in space and on Earth. Technology testing in space allows developers to characterize, optimize, 

and space qualify hardware performance in space and expands the suite of space-qualified 

equipment that can then be used to enable other applications. 
19

Historical Experience (Lower End of Range)

To date, virtually all of the funding for experiment development, transportation, accommodation and 

resources has been provided by government sponsors with few notable exceptions of commercial 

investment. Commercial investments have been limited to covering the costs of their investigators and 

incidental expenses. The share of experiments with a commercial interest, as a percent of total 

experiments performed, has been approximately nine percent.

Figure 8 shows the full breakdown of experiment sponsors, based on the number of experiments 

conducted onboard the ISS in each of the research disciplines, by all ISS Partners, from December 1998 

through September 2010 (Expeditions 0 though 24), a period of time representing the assembly phase of 

station operations.

Figure 8: ISS Experiment Sponsors, December 1998 to September 2010

In some cases, an experiment conducted on board the ISS by a private, non-U.S. Government entity had

its investigator costs paid for by that private entity, but costs of transport and use of the station were 

covered by NASA. Thus, none of the research included in the ―United States – Commercial‖ category 

was completely funded by private entities, and it is unclear if any of this research would have been 

conducted had the government financial contribution not existed. Accordingly, the low end of the range

for this market is zero pounds of cargo, even though private entities have contributed financially, in some 

cases quite substantially, to this research. 

Market Potential (Upper End of Range)

NASA planning for ISS utilization requirements breaks cargo upmass and downmass requirements into 

three categories: mass required to support ISS Systems and Operations, mass required for research on the 

United States On-orbit Segment (USOS) of the ISS, and mass required for National Lab Utilization. The 

USOS includes NASA utilization requirements and those of all International Partners except Russia. The 

National Lab Utilization category includes all U.S. research on the station pursued by entities other than 

NASA, including research by private firms. In August 2009, NASA developed a Plan to Support 

Operations and Utilization of the International Space Station Beyond FY 2015. This report contained

projected cargo upmass (and downmass) requirements for ISS Utilization through 2020, as shown in 

Figure 9. 

ISS Utilization Sponsor Estimated Distribution of 

Interests

ISS International Partnership (non-United States) 64%

United States 36%

Commercial 9%

Department of Defense 10%

National Lab – Other Government Agencies 0%

National Lab – Academia 0%

National Lab – Education (with significant NASA funding) 17%

NASA Grants 64%

 Subtotal (United States) 100%

Total 100%
20

Category Total Projected Cargo Upmass Requirements

Systems/Operations 194,820 lbs

USOS Research (funded) 80,067 lbs

National Lab Utilization (unfunded) 43,266 lbs

Figure 9: ISS Upmass and Downmass Requirements 2011-2020

As mentioned, approximately nine percent of ISS utilization interest has originated from commercial 

sources. This figure provides an estimate of the level of commercial market interest in Applied Research 

and Technology Development activities, when the research costs are largely covered by NASA. 

Accordingly, it can be used to provide the ISS-related portion of the upper end of the range of the Applied 

Research and Technology Development market. Applying the nine percent to the total projected National 

Lab Utilization gives an estimate for commercial ISS cargo of approximately 3,900 pounds. 

In addition to ISS-related utilization, there will be research and technology related cargo flown to other 

destinations, such as the Bigelow station or simply to LEO in a DragonLab or other free-flying carrier. 

For the contribution of this portion to the upper end of the range, the Bigelow flight projection was used:

30 flights during the assessment period for Bigelow Station #1; and 45 - 60 flights for Bigelow Station #2. 

Bigelow plans to launch major payloads ―with the module‖; hence, the amount of utilization-related 

hardware will be relatively small. For the purposes of this assessment, NASA assumed 75 pounds of 

cargo would be flown on each flight, for a total of 5,600 - 6,750 pounds of commercial non-ISS cargo 

over the assessment period.

Adding together the ISS and non-ISS related portions provides a grand total of 9,500 - 13,400 pounds for 

commercial cargo. Figure 10 shows a summary of the projection for the Applied Research and 

Technology Development market.

Applied Research and Development Market Number of Seats Amount of Cargo (lbs)

Lower End of Range - 0

Upper End of Range - 9,500 - 13,400

Figure 10: Summary of Applied Research and Technology Development Market (Cumulative Over 10-

Year Assessment)

Constraints on Market Growth

The estimates in Figure 11 are constrained by several factors. The historical data used for the range

represents a period when ISS activities were conducted under a different concept of the operations than 

what is in place today: assembly versus utilization. During the period of ISS assembly, resources for 

completing experiments were relatively limited. Today, the largest modules and research racks have been 

delivered to ISS, so more launch payload volume and mass is allocated to ISS utilization. Furthermore, 

more crew time is available for research because there are fewer ISS components to install and assemble. 

Secondly, the ISS Program notes that ―over the past decade funding for research (either from NASA or 

from private entities) and flight resources have never been available at the same time, and have fluctuated 

almost independently.‖ Accordingly, the history-based statistics represented in Figure 11 should not be 

considered an absolute upper limit. 
21

The American Society for Gravitational and Space Biology, an organization with an interest in expanding 

research conducted in microgravity, suggests that the following factors limit research activities on ISS: 

Inadequate hardware and instrumentation to support biological and physical sciences 

experimentation in reduced gravity, including biocontainment work stations and variable speed 

centrifugation for in-flight gravity controls;

A lack of frequent and affordable upmass and downmass to and from ISS;

Absence of designated ground and facilities support for fundamental life and physical sciences 

flight experiments; and

Insufficient commercial and basic research entities participating jointly on missions.

Flight rate—both upmass and downmass—is a major constraint to development of the market. In the 

report, ―Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era of Space Exploration‖, the National Research 

Council noted that, ―conditioned down mass is of particular importance...‖ because without it, only basic 

analyses that do not require experiment or sample return to the Earth’s surface can be conducted. Related 

to flight opportunities are flight costs. The U.S. Government Accountability Office noted in 2009 that 

launch costs are ―prohibitive‖ to researchers seeking to fund their own way to orbit. An additional 

significant constraint is that availability of private (non-Government) funding for basic research activities 

is low, so reaching maturity in absence of government funds will be a challenge. In addition, space-based 

research techniques remain at risk of being supplanted by ground-based methodologies that offer similar 

results under more cost-effective conditions.

Most research activities conduced in LEO or onboard ISS to date have been basic research in character. 

Over the forecast period a gradual shift from basic to translational research could occur if the Government 

invests in proof-of-concept experiments that stimulate private interest. If the Government does not invest 

in this early stage research, it will impede the development of commercial applications. 

As an example of proof-of-concept activities that might be enabled by in-space technology demonstration 

activities, Bigelow Aerospace and NASA have discussed connecting a Bigelow Expandable Activity 

Module (BEAM) to the ISS. Connecting a BEAM to the ISS would provide a demonstration of 

Bigelow’s technology. The demonstration would also provide both NASA and Bigelow with data on the 

performance of inflatable space habitation modules in orbit. With a successful demonstration of the ISS’s 

technology development capabilities, other users may follow.

Section 5.3: Other Markets

Other markets may be enabled by development of commercial crew and cargo transportation systems. 

These other markets include: satellite servicing, media and entertainment, and education. Historically, 

for example:

Two commercial satellites have benefited from human-tended rescue performed by the Space 

Shuttle during a single mission in 1984: Palapa B2 and Westar 6.

A number of companies have used spacecraft, particularly the Russian space station Mir and the 

Russian segment of the ISS, for advertising and other media projects (the first non-Government 

funded spaceflight participant was funded by a television broadcasting company). 
22

A commercial firm is preparing the first Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics

(STEM) mission that does not require NASA funding, for 16 school districts.

Satellite Servicing 

Rescue of satellites stranded in an incorrect orbit is a relatively advanced capability that could be 

supported by commercial crew transportation spacecraft. To date, all human-tended servicing missions to 

date have been conducted by Government-funded missions performed by either the United States or 

Russian Governments. In addition, most commercially operated satellites in LEO are not valuable 

enough to justify a human-tended rescue mission. Thus, this market has not seen much historical activity.

However, there are two historical examples cited above, the Palapa B2 and Westar 6. In addition, 

between 1997 and 2009, approximately seven satellites lost greater than 50 percent of their lifespan due to 

being stranded in an incorrect orbit and could potentially have been candidates for servicing had the 

transportation capability been available. 

Media and Entertainment

Mir, along with its cosmonauts, was a platform for companies such as Pepsi and MTV to launch 

promotional activities. This included an ad filmed on Mir that aired in September of 1997 during the 

MTV Music Awards. In 1999, Pizza Hut spent $1 million for the rights to plant a large logo on the side

of a Proton launcher headed for the ISS. The following year, Pizza Hut worked with Russian food 

scientists to deliver oven-ready pizzas to ISS incumbents. Shortly after, Kodak paid to have their logo and 

a slogan placed onto a material that was to be tested for durability in space on the outside of the ISS. In 

2001, Radio Shack & Popular Mechanics also worked out deals with the Russians for advertising on the 

ISS. 

More recently, Bigelow Aerospace carried out a ―Fly Your Stuff‖ promotion through their Genesis I and 

Genesis II. Photos taken within the Genesis I reveal banners and logos from different companies lined 

against the module’s interior walls. In addition to images and logos, Bigelow Aerospace allowed the 

public to send small items to space. Once in space, the items were photographed floating in Genesis II 

and those images were made visible on the Bigelow website.

Also, IMAX Corporation and NASA have developed a long-standing partnership which has enabled 

millions of people to virtually travel into space through a series of award-winning films. A list of those 

IMAX films is provided in Figure 11.

Title Production Year

Hail Columbia 1981

The Dream is Alive 1985

Blue Planet 1990

Destiny in Space 1994

Cosmic Voyage 1996

L5: First City in Space 1996

Mission to MIR 1997

Space Station 3D 2002

Magnificent Desolation 2005

Hubble 3D 2009
23

Figure 11: NASA IMAX Movies

While past media and entertainment efforts have largely involved the use of government crew members 

on vehicles, one private spaceflight participant has flown as part of a media project. In 1989, Tokyo 

Broadcasting System (TBS) paid the Soviet Government to fly one of its journalists, Toyohiro Akiyama, 

to the Mir space station. Akiyama flew on Mir for one week in December 1990, providing reports for 

TBS. Since then, there have been several proposals to fly journalists, actors, or other media and 

entertainment professionals into space.

Education

As most people are aware, almost all shuttle missions and ISS expeditions have an education outreach 

component, whether that being astronauts talking with school children or filmed activity on Shuttle/ISS 

for educational purposes. Although the shuttle program will be ending, NASA’s education efforts will 

continue to utilize the inspirational people, resources and facilities at its disposal, including the Astronaut 

Corps and the International Space Station, to assist the Nation to inspire a new generation of scientists 

and engineers.

An education-related market may develop in the future, thanks to lower cost research opportunities 

enabled by concepts such as NanoRacks. The approach of NanoRacks is to use increasingly sophisticated 

and powerful small space systems, along with a no-frills business model that drives down user cost. In 

2010, the National Center for Earth and Space Science Education partnered with NanoRacks to perform 

the Student Spaceflight Experiments Program (SSEP). This program allows 16 microgravity science 

experiments, developed by grade 5-12 students, to be sent into space onboard the space shuttle. The 16 

experiments were chosen from 447 proposals. SSEP is the first pre-college STEM education program to 

be both a national initiative and implemented as a commercial venture. Future SSEP missions will 

leverage the National Laboratory capability of the ISS in which NASA would provide the transportation 

and host the NanoRacks experiment platform.

Size of Other Markets

During our analysis for this report, we found no detailed studies of the demand for satellite servicing, 

media and entertainment, and educational activities on the ISS or elsewhere in LEO that can be enabled 

by commercial cargo and crew vehicles, beyond the anecdotal evidence cited above. This suggests that 

these other markets will not be drivers for the initial commercial demand for cargo and crew 

transportation systems. Hence, lower and upper ranges are not provided. However, given that there has 

been some historical activity shown to exist and the fact that, over time, activity in these markets may 

expand, they have been included in this report.

Section 5.4: Market Aggregation

Figure 12 combines the estimated projected sizes of the markets addressed in the previous section, for 

both the lower and upper ends. At the lower end, the overall market is dominated by national interests, a 

market with a decades-long track record of interest from nations seeking human access to space. The 

remainder of the market at the lower bound comes from tourism, another market with a lengthy record of 
24

interest that is expected to continue. Tourism becomes more of a driver at the upper end of the range, 

given the surge in demand expected by industry sources in the coming decade. 

Market 

Segment

Cargo (lbs) Crew

Lower End Upper End Lower End Upper End

National 

Interests 6,180 24,720 - 28,430 36 186 - 216

Tourism 990 17,700 8 143

Applied 

Research and 

Technology 

Development 0 9,500 - 13,400 - -

Other Enabled 

Markets - - - -

Total 7,170 51,920 - 59,530 44 329 - 359

Figure 12: Aggregated Non-Government Markets – 10-Year Total

A key factor in this analysis is that the market for crew transportation drives the overall market. That is, 

in the case of the lower end of the cargo market, 100 percent comes from supplies needed to support the 

crew during missions. For the upper end of the assessment, cargo to support the crew is still by far the 

biggest component to the overall projection, with the Applied Research and Technology Development 

market the only cargo market (i.e. experiments and support equipment) which does not also have a crew 

component. This suggests that the development of commercial crew transportation systems is essential to 

enabling the overall market growth for commercial space transportation capabilities in LEO.

Section 6.0: Other Relevant Considerations

Any discussion of commercial crew markets would not be complete without mention of U.S. Government 

needs. The U.S. Government provides the foundational market from which the commercial markets can 

grow and expand. Also, components of the systems, such as the launch vehicle and spacecraft, have 

commercial potential beyond just transporting crew and cargo to LEO. This section provides a top-level 

overview of the commercial potential for components of crew and cargo systems. In addition, the outlook 

for commercial crew and cargo systems beyond 10 years is also relevant to this report and is included in 

this section.

Section 6.1: U.S. Government Market for Commercial Crew and Cargo Capabilities

While the commercial markets described above are real and potentially large, NASA’s need for 

commercial crew and cargo services is clearly the foundational market from which additional nonGovernment markets can be established. With the decision to extend the life of the ISS to 2020 or 

beyond, there is now a long-term, sustainable market for commercial human space transportation services.
25

Some potential commercial crew providers have indicated that the U.S. Government/NASA market is 

sufficient in and of itself. Per Boeing’s voluntary, non-proprietary input to NASA for this report:

―Although we can close our business case on NASA services alone, it is the potential upside generated by 

a commercial market that offsets the investment and risk inherent with a commercial crew LEO 

transportation development effort.‖ 

The most significant, and currently the only planned and funded, U.S. government mission for 

commercial crew and cargo services is ISS crew transportation and cargo resupply. The other missions 

listed in this section are entirely notional and are not currently planned or funded. They are potential U.S. 

Government missions that may arise in the future.

NASA ISS Mission

For the ISS mission, NASA requires safe and reliable crew rotation capability for up to four U.S. or U.S.-

sponsored crewmembers per flight, two flights per year. This also includes providing an assured crew 

return/rescue capability for these crewmembers while the commercial spacecraft is docked to the ISS. 

Assuming services begin in 2016 and go through to 2020, there will be a need for up to 40 astronaut 

flights during the assessment period.

Regarding cargo, NASA is already under contract to purchase 132,000 pounds (60 MT) of cargo resupply 

services for the first half of this decade. In addition, NASA anticipates requiring an additional 132,000 

pounds of cargo delivery to the ISS from 2016 - 2020. The cargo complement is composed of oxygen, 

water, food, clothing, medicine, spare parts, new science technology developments, etc. Cargo usage is 

annually assessed and changes based on the latest information on key cargo requirement drivers. Figure 

13 shows a summary of NASA’s projected needs for commercial crew and cargo transportation for the 

ISS during the assessment period to meet total ISS crew and cargo needs.

NASA ISS Crew and Cargo Market Number of Astronaut Flights Amount of Cargo (lbs)

Estimated Amount Up to 40 264,000

Figure 13: Summary of Applied NASA Market for ISS Crew and Cargo

It should be noted that any flights above NASA’s needs for commercial crew and cargo transportation to 

the ISS (i.e., all the non-U.S. Government projections shown in Figure 13) could have a profound impact 

on the business case for commercial services. As the Augustine report noted, ―...if there were only one 

non-NASA flight of this system per year, it would reduce the NASA share of the fixed recurring cost by 33 

percent.‖

More importantly, Figure 13 only shows NASA’s needs for commercial crew and cargo transportation

during the assessment period. NASA has already purchased over 40 crew seats on the Russian Soyuz 

system for ISS crew transportation and rescue services at a cost of well over $1 billion. Had commercial 

crew transportation been available to NASA, those 40+ crew seats could have been purchased from U.S. 

aerospace companies. Additionally, every year that there is a delay in the availability of commercial crew 

transportation (either because of budget cuts or other delays), some of the seat opportunities shown in 

Figure 13 will be transferred to Russia for the purchase of even more Soyuz seats.

Commercial Space Station Mission
26

A commercial space station mission would entail providing NASA crew access and/or cargo transfer to a 

commercially sponsored space station in LEO, which is functioning as a science platform. NASAsponsored crew could participate in science experiments onboard a commercial space station. Cargo 

could include NASA science experiments which would require access to unique scientific equipment 

aboard a commercial space station. 

Rescue Mission

This would entail a rescue mission to an inhabited space station operating in LEO, to rescue and return to 

Earth a crew whose spacecraft is no longer safe for return. In this scenario, a major malfunction would 

have to occur to the crew return spacecraft while it was docked to an orbiting space station. The crew 

would then remain on the station awaiting launch of a rescue vehicle. 

Exploration Crew Transportation Mission

For this mission, NASA would require safe and reliable crew access (and potentially cargo transfer) to a 

NASA-developed Exploration Spacecraft System (ESS) loitering in LEO. Upon transfer of crew 

members to the ESS, an uncrewed (or minimally crewed) crew transportation system spacecraft would

separate from the ESS. The ESS would depart LEO without the crew transportation system and would 

perform a deep space mission, providing its own Earth return capability once the deep space mission was

completed. The crew transportation system would de-orbit and land at an appropriately chosen landing 

site. 

Satellite Servicing Mission

The objective for this mission would be to provide servicing of NASA satellites (or potentially satellites 

owned by other Government agencies and serviced by NASA crew) in LEO. In general, each satellite 

servicing mission would have a unique inclination and altitude and unique servicing needs. Cargo 

carrying capability for these servicing missions would have to include all hardware and tools necessary to 

perform the servicing and return any items required for post-flight analysis.

Repair missions of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) in 1993, 1997, 1999, 2002 and 2009 are perhaps 

the most well-known examples of on-orbit servicing. In addition, the NASA Solar Maximum Mission 

(SMM), launched in 1980, operated until 1981 when the attitude control system failed. The Space Shuttle 

Challenger successfully serviced the SMM satellite in 1984 during mission STS-41C, fully restoring 

functionality.

Propellant Refueling Mission

One space architecture concept that has garnered interest is the propellant depot. Such depots would store 

propellants in Earth orbit or other locations, such as Earth-moon Lagrange points, for use by commercial 

or government spacecraft for various applications, from human exploration missions to refueling 

commercial satellites. Depots would allow spacecraft to be launched ―dry‖, or without any propellant on 

board, increasing the amount of useful mass that can be launched on a single vehicle; the spacecraft 

would then obtain its necessary propellant at the depot.

Depots have the potential to significantly increase the market for commercial launch vehicles developed 

for or adapted to commercial crew and cargo technology systems by launching propellant to the depots. 

Crew and cargo vehicles could also be adapted to support these vehicles by serving as tugs to transport 

propellant modules or spacecraft to be refueled to and from the depots. Specific launch and spacecraft 
27

requirements for depots would depend on a number of factors, including the orbit the depot is in and the 

types of propellants it would host.

Market for Components of the Commercial Crew and Cargo Systems

Pursuant to the language in the NASA Authorization Act of 2010, this study assesses the markets for 

complete commercial crew and cargo systems. However, individual components of these systems, 

particularly the launch vehicles, can address markets beyond those analyzed in this report. 

Launch of Commercial Spacecraft

A major, existing market for commercial space transportation is the launch of commercial satellites 

intended to serve markets such as communications and remote sensing. In addition, some non-U.S. 

Governments without indigenous launch capabilities procure launch services on the commercial market. 

Over the last 10 years there have been an average of approximately 21 commercial launches per year 

globally, primarily consisting of commercial communications satellites operating in geosynchronous 

orbit. The 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts by the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space 

Transportation and its Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee projects an average of over 

27 commercial launches per year from 2010-2019, again dominated by commercial geosynchronous orbit

communications satellites.

New launch vehicles developed for commercial crew and cargo systems, or existing vehicles adapted to 

for use in those systems, could be used for commercial satellite launches as well. SpaceX has already 

demonstrated some success in this area, selling a number of commercial satellite launches on its Falcon 9 

vehicle developed as part of the COTS program. Commercial satellite launch demand, along with that 

from crew and cargo launch markets, can allow launch services providers to amortize fixed costs over a 

larger number of missions, reducing per-launch costs and making them more competitive on the global 

launch market.

Launch of U.S. Government Spacecraft

Launch vehicles developed for or adapted to commercial crew and cargo transportation systems can also be 

used for the launch of U.S. Government civil and national security spacecraft. This is already the case for 

the Atlas V and Delta IV vehicles, developed originally for those missions and more recently proposed by a 

number of companies as the launch vehicles for their commercial crew transportation systems. The 

additional demand for commercial crew and cargo launches for NASA and commercial applications can 

help support the industrial base by increasing production rates and thus lowering per-unit costs.

Outlook Beyond 10 Years

This assessment examined potential markets for commercial crew and cargo vehicles out to a ten-year 

horizon, primarily because of the long-term uncertainties inherent in any market assessment as well as the 

expected operational life of the ISS. However, it is possible to qualitatively assess the outlook for these 

and other markets associated with such vehicles beyond 2020.

One major factor in the long-term outlook for such services is the lifetime of the ISS. The Governments 

of Japan and the Russian Federation have approved continued ISS operations beyond 2016. The NASA 
28

Authorization Act of 2010 extended ISS operations until at least 2020. In March 2011, the European 

Space Agency Council approved continued ISS operations to at least 2020. The Canadian Space Agency 

is working with its Government to reach consensus about the continuation of the ISS. However, ISS 

operations beyond 2020 are uncertain. Continued use of the ISS beyond 2020 will depend on both 

technical issues with the station, as some core elements of the station approach the end of their design life, 

and the perceived utility of the station by the ISS Partner nations. Should technical considerations permit 

and ISS Partners find that government and commercial uses of the ISS have sufficient merit, ISS 

operations may continue well into the 2020s, extending the market for commercial crew and cargo 

services.

Even after the ISS reaches the end of its life, there will likely be continued human spaceflight operations 

in LEO. NASA’s mission of space exploration is written into law in the National Aeronautics and Space 

Act, and it has been repeatedly authorized by multiple Congresses over the years. Thus, NASA is 

expected to be in the business of human spaceflight for the foreseeable future. New spacecraft developed 

and/or operated by Government agencies either as a direct successor to the ISS or in preparation for 

human spaceflight activities beyond Earth orbit can be projected. Government agencies may also choose 

to buy or lease commercially-developed orbital facilities, while other such facilities are used by 

commercial entities for tourism, research, and other markets.

Many of the markets studied in this assessment have growth potential that is likely to continue beyond 

this study’s 10-year horizon. Tourism, for example, is likely to grow provided there is sufficient supply 

of transport spacecraft and orbital facilities to host them. Commercial research and development 

activities may grow at a significant rate, particularly if there are success stories from research activities in 

the next 10 years that demonstrate the value of space research to commercial customers. Media and 

entertainment, which is not foreseen to be a leading market in the next 10 years, may be able to leverage 

the capabilities developed for other markets and grow considerably beyond the ten-year horizon of this 

forecast. As in all cases, though, disruptive developments, both positive and negative such as accidents, 

economic downturns, or the development of new technologies could affect the long-term outlook for 

commercial cargo and crew transportation systems.

Section 6.2: How Government Interest/Action Can Help Spur Markets

Another major factor, perhaps the largest, that will affect the development of commercial crew and cargo 

markets is U.S. Government action. If the Government takes no action, many of the markets described in 

this report will likely not emerge to any significant degree in the next decade. The Augustine Committee 

stated, ―...unless NASA creates significant incentives for the development of the [commercial crew] 

capsule, the service is unlikely to be developed on a purely commercial basis.‖ This conclusion was 

largely echoed by the final report of the FAA Workshop on Commercial Human Spaceflight, which 

concluded, ―The workshop participants expressed a general confidence that a commercial human 

spaceflight market will develop over time. They had considerably less confidence in the near-term 

viability of human space flight as a purely commercial enterprise.‖

NASA’s Commercial Crew Program is specifically designed to reduce the risk for private industry by 

providing significant financial and technical assistance for the development of these systems. Once these 

systems are proven to be safe and mature, NASA plans to be a reliable, long-term customer for crew 

transportation services. NASA believes that by providing both assistance in the system development and 

demand for the service, the ―business case‖ for commercial human spaceflight providers can close for one 

or more U.S. aerospace companies.

Historical Examples
29

There are several historical examples where the U.S. Government, through direct financial and technical 

assistance, deliberately contributed to the development of new or expanded commercial transportation 

markets. The enabling legislation for the funding of the other transport industries clearly referenced the 

U.S. Government’s strategic interest in seeing such a market develop for reasons that include but were 

never limited to the development of commerce. In other words, a frequently cited reason was the U.S. 

Government’s interest in the further development of national capabilities in new technical realms. A 

similar situation exists today where commercial spaceflight capabilities can contribute to building new or 

expanding existing industries, but also support a Government interest of access to LEO for crew and 

cargo.

Railroads

Transcontinental railroad construction in the United States was initially enabled by the Pacific 

Railroad Acts approved in the mid-1800s. These acts authorized the issuance of Government 

bonds and the grants of land to railroad companies. From 1850-1871, the railroad companies 

received more than 175 million acres of public land, an area more than one tenth of the whole 

United States and larger in area than the state of Texas. 

The first transcontinental railroad was completed on May 10, 1869, establishing the possibility of 

travel from New York to San Francisco in six days. The commitment of consistent investment in 

railway development by the Government also supported and attracted related investment by the 

private sector in the United States and abroad. With both Government and private funding 

sources available, railroad mileage grew strongly, expanding from 9,000 miles in 1850 to over 

129,770 miles in 1890. Government support for railways continued well into the era of airline 

travel as well. By year-end 2007, U.S. railroads operated 160,627 miles of track with 167,000 

employees and generated $54 billion in annual operating revenues.

Airmail

Similarly, in the mid-1920s, legislation sponsored by Congressman Clyde Kelly of Pennsylvania, 

Chairman of the House Post Office Committee, authorized the Postmaster General to contract for 

domestic airmail service with commercial air carriers. The bill, which became known as the Air 

Mail Act of 1925, or the Kelly Act, also set airmail rates and the level of cash subsidies to be paid 

to companies that carried the mail. By transferring airmail operations to private companies, the 

U.S. Government effectively created the commercial aviation industry.

Harry S. New, Postmaster General under President Calvin Coolidge, awarded contracts to the 

largest commercial companies with the largest aircraft, which could accommodate more 

passengers as well as the mail. Mr. New anticipated that increasing revenues from passengers, 

who at the time numbered only a few hundred each year, would eventually lead to more profit for 

the airlines. Additional airline profits would, in turn, directly reduce the burden of subsidy for 

airmail paid by the Post Office. 

Over time, the domestic airlines have grown steadily. Today, the commercial airline industry, 

initially derided as a fad, is recognized as a fully mature and fundamental part of the nation’s 

infrastructure generating over $106 billion in 2009 revenues by the U.S. commercial passenger 

airlines.

Section 6.3: Government Catalyst for Commercial Cargo and Crew
30

Initiated in 2005, the COTS program has been making steady progress in the development of commercial 

cargo systems to resupply the ISS. A notable milestone occurred in December 2010 when SpaceX 

successfully completed its first demonstration flight under the COTS program by launching the Falcon 9 

launch vehicle to orbit, separating the Dragon space capsule, completing two full orbits of the Earth, 

safely landing in the Pacific Ocean, and recovering the Dragon capsule. 

While COTS cannot yet be considered a full success since no cargo has been delivered to the ISS, the 

COTS cargo project has already made a significant difference to NASA and the U.S. space industry. The 

following situation existed as recently as 2008: 

With the pending retirement of the space shuttle, NASA was facing a shortfall in ISS cargo 

resupply capability of some 60 metric tons in the first part of the decade which would have 

significantly curtailed the productivity of this laboratory in space; 

With the pending phase-out of the Delta II, there would have essentially been no mid-sized 

satellite launch capability for NASA science missions forcing those missions to either squeeze 

into a small launch vehicle or grow the size and cost of the payload to fit an Evolved Expendable 

Vehicle class launch vehicle; and

The U.S. market share of commercial launch contracts was averaging less than 15 percent. 

Today, NASA has contracts with two U.S. commercial providers for ISS cargo delivery services which, 

along with our International Partners, provide a robust portfolio of ISS resupply capabilities. Mid-sized 

NASA science missions can again be planned with the addition of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle into 

NASA’s stable of vehicle options and potentially the addition of the Taurus II. In addition, SpaceX was 

recently awarded the largest commercial launch vehicle contract in history to launch a new constellation 

of Iridium satellites. All this, for a very modest U.S. Government investment and within a very short 

period of time compared to historical spaceflight development efforts. Thus, COTS has already proved 

successful in meeting one of its primary objectives which was to ―create a market environment where 

commercial space transportation services are available to U.S. Government and private sector customers.‖

NASA’s pending Commercial Crew Program, as proposed in the President’s FY 2012 budget request,

would significantly reduce the technical, programmatic, and financial risk associated with the 

development of crew transportation systems. FAA’s report of the Commercial Human Spaceflight 

workshop which summarizes additional roles the U.S. Government could take in supporting commercial 

spaceflight:

―...industry and the panel agree that if policy makers decide that a transition to commercial launch 

services is in the national interest, the government must take more aggressive measures to support the 

development of the industry, such as the following: 

a. Act as the anchor tenant customer for the foreseeable future, including guaranteeing a 

market greater than five years of ISS support.

b. Invest in system and/or infrastructure development to limit capital requirements and 

shorten payback periods. Several companies required that the government fund at least 

part of the development of the human system as a condition of their participation. 

c. Offer or facilitate limitations on liability. 

d. Provide mature, stable requirements, including human rating requirements, as soon as 

possible. 
31

e. Ensure that NASA and the FAA agree on a coherent set of requirements and regulations 

that enable fielded systems to serve both government and non-government customers.

f. Insulate commercial providers from financial penalties associated with schedule impacts 

that may arise from conservative decisions required to operate safely.‖

Section 7.0: Conclusion

This report assessed the market for commercial crew and cargo services, ranging from space tourism to 

research and development to national interests. Over time, the commercial markets identified in this 

report hold the strong promise of significantly more customers, more flights, and potentially lower prices 

to the U.S. Government. Even at the lower end of the range, which assumes absolutely no growth in the 

markets above what has already been experienced historically, the non-U.S. government market for crew 

transportation matches the U.S. Government market projection. At the upper end of the range, 

commercial markets drive the overall market and, in some cases, dwarf the U.S. Government projections 

for crew transportation.

From the Augustine Committee report: 

―Given the appropriate incentives, this [commercial space] industry might help overcome a 

long-standing problem. The cost of admission to a variety of space activities strongly depends 

on the cost of reaching LEO. These costs become even greater when, as is the circumstance 

today, large sums are paid to develop new launch systems but those systems are used only 

infrequently. It seems improbable that order-of magnitude reductions in launch costs will be 

realized until launch rates increase substantially. But this is a  ̳chicken-and-egg‘ problem. The 

early airlines faced a similar barrier, which was finally resolved when the federal government 

awarded a series of guaranteed contracts for carrying the mail. A corresponding action may be 

required if space is ever to become broadly accessible. If we craft a space architecture to 

provide opportunities to industry, creating an assured initial market, there is the potential -- not 

without risk -- that the eventual costs to the government could be reduced substantially.‖

The clearly identifiable market of the ISS for regular cargo delivery and return, and crew rotation 

provides the ―corresponding action‖ referred to in the Augustine report and provides a foundation for 

private sector development efforts to succeed. With the fully operational ISS, there exists for the first 

time a strong, identifiable market for ―routine‖ transportation services to and from LEO. This base 

market provides sufficient justification, in and of itself, for at least one established aerospace company to 

project that it can close its business case.

If successful, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program will provide assured access to the ISS. It will end the 

gap in U.S.-provided human access to space and ensure we do not cede the U.S. leadership role in space. 

It will also allow NASA to concentrate its limited resources on exploration beyond LEO, enabling NASA 

to go further faster in the exploration of the solar system. It benefits U.S. private industry by 

strengthening the U.S. industrial base, enhancing our capabilities, and capturing market share of a new 

high technology industry. In addition, it benefits the Nation with more jobs, economic growth, and 

opportunities for human spaceflight for a variety of people (e.g., astronauts, international partner 

personnel, scientists, spaceflight participants) for a variety of reasons (e.g., science, research, ISS 

operations, tourism).

For these reasons, it is important that the Congress support NASA’s commercial cargo and crew efforts. 

Delays in the availability of commercial spaceflight capabilities negatively affect the markets described in 

this report and degrade the business case for commercial providers. Catalyzed by a successful 
32

Commercial Crew Program, a stable commercial non-Government market is likely to emerge. Without 

this catalyst, prospects for such a market emerging are considerably lessened. New potential suppliers are 

poised to try, and now is the time to open this new vista for American industry.
33

Bibliography

American Society for Gravitational and Space Biology (ASGSB), ―The American Society for Gravitational 

and Space Biology Calls to Reestablish American Leadership in Space Sciences,‖ Whitepaper submitted to 

the NRC Decadal Survey on Biological and Physical Sciences in Space, 2009.

Astrogenetix, Inc. ―Astrogenetix Performs Drug Development In Microgravity,‖ May 26, 2010, 

http://www.astrogenetix.com/news-and-events/news/astrogenetix-performs-drug-development-inmicrogravity (accessed February 16, 2011).

BBC, ―Mir actor remains grounded,‖ March 16, 2000, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/679935.stm

(accessed February 15, 2011).

Blumberg, Baruch S., et al, ―Report of the Workshop on Space Biology on the Early International Space 

Station‖ NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, March 14-15, 2002.

Boeing communication with NASA on space tourism demand, released January 2011.

Boyle, Alan, ―NBC launching 2001 space odyssey,‖ MSNBC.com, September 12, 2000, 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15424344/ns/technology_and_science-space/ (accessed February 15, 2011).

Cantwell, Betsy, ―Life and Physical Sciences for a New Era of Space Exploration.‖ (presentation at the 

American Astronautical Society National Conference: ISS - The Next Decade, Cape Canaveral, Florida, 

November 16-17, 2010)

Carreau, Mark, ―$30 million buys Austin resident a ride of Soyuz mission,‖ Houston Chronicle, October 10, 

2008, http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6052360.html, (accessed February 11, 2011).

Clark, Stephen, ―Boeing space capsule could be operational by 2015,‖ Spaceflight Now, July 21, 2010, 

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1007/21boeing/ (accessed February 7, 2011).

Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 (Public Law 208-492), December 23, 2004, 

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/PL108-492.pdf (accessed February 7, 

2011).

David, Leonard, ―International Space Station Could Get Private Inflatable Room,‖ SPACE.com, January 

26, 2011, http://www.space.com/10686-nasa-bigelow-module-international-space-station.html (accessed 

February 16, 2011).

DeLucas, Larry, et al. ―A Major Initial Market: Activity in Low Earth Orbit. Creating a Business Case for 

Protein Crystallization,‖ (presentation at Space Investment Summit, April 17 ,2007).

de Selding , Peter B., ―DLR Takes Step Toward In-orbit Servicing Demonstration,‖ Space News, February 

24, 2010, http://www.spacenews.com/civil/022410-dlr-takes-step-toward-in-orbit-servicing-demo.html

(accessed February 4, 2011).

Eilertsen, Baard, ―Market Interest in Fleet Management on Orbit Services – a Commercial Approach,‖ 

Swedish Space Corporation, March 24, 2010, NASA On-Orbit Servicing Workshop Presentation.

FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation, 2010 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts, May 

2010, 
34

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/2010_launch_forecast_report.pdf

(accessed February 16, 2011)

FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation, Report of the Commercial Human Spaceflight Workshop, 

August 4-6, 2010, report published April 2011.

Futron Corporation, Space Tourism Market Study: Orbital Space Travel & Destinations with Suborbital 

Space Travel, October 2002, 

http://www.futron.com/upload/wysiwyg/Resources/Reports/Space_Tourism_Market_Study_2002.pdf

(accessed February 16, 2011).

Goldstein, Jeff, ―STS-134 Experiments Selected, STS-135 Opportunity Announced,‖ Student Spaceflight 

Experiments Program Press Release, December 22, 2010, http://ssep.ncesse.org/2010/12/ssep-nationalpress-release-sts-134-experiments-selected-sts-135-opportunity-announced/ (accessed February 22, 2011).

Government Accountability Office (GAO), ―International Space Station: Significant Challenges May Limit 

Onboard Research,‖ November 2009.

Griffin, Michael, ―Remarks to the Space Transportation Association,‖ June 21, 2005, 

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/119275main_Griffin_STA_21_June_2005.pdf (accessed February 11, 2011).

Halvorson, Todd, ―Space, Inc. Part 1: Robert Bigelow, a hotel mogul working to build private space 

stations.‖ Florida Today, November 15, 2010, 

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20101114/NEWS0204/101115027/Space-Inc-Part-1-Robert-Bigelowhotel-mogul-working-build-private-space-stations (accessed February 16, 2011).

Halvorson, Todd, ―Space station production plant could bring 2K jobs to Brevard,‖ Florida Today, February 

3, 2011, 

http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20110203/BUSINESS/102030309/1007/news02/CEO++Space+station

+plant+could+bring+2K+jobs+to+Brevard (accessed February 7, 2011).

Harper, Lynn, et al, ―The Biotech Revolution in Space.‖ (paper presented at the AIAA Space 2006 

Conference, San Jose, California, September 19 – 21, 2006).

Kundrot, Craig E., et al., ―Microgravity and Macromolecular Crystallography,‖ Crystal Growth & Design 

Vol, 1, No. 1: 87-99.

Miller, Barry, ―On-Orbit Satellite Servicing – Is There A Business Case That Makes Sense,‖ Lockheed 

Martin, March 24, 2010, NASA On-Orbit Servicing Workshop Presentation.

Morring Jr., Frank, ―NASA, Roscosmos Seeking More Soyuz Seats,‖ AviationWeek.com, February 10, 

2011, 

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=space&id=news/asd/2011/02/10/07.x

ml&headline=NASA,%20Roscosmos%20Seeking%20More%20Soyuz%20Seats, (accessed February 11, 

2011).

NASA Authorization Act of 2005 (Public Law 109-155), December 30, 2005, 

http://legislative.nasa.gov/PL109-155.pdf (accessed February 21, 2011).

NASA Authorization Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-422), October 15, 2008, 

http://legislative.nasa.gov/PL%20110-422.pdf (accessed February 21, 2011).
35

NASA Authorization Act of 2010 (Public Law 111-267), October 11, 2010, 

http://legislative.nasa.gov/PL%20111-267.pdf (accessed February 7, 2011).

NASA, ―NASA Deputy Administrator Visits Nevada Innovation Sites‖, February 4, 2011, 

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2011/feb/HQ_11-033_GarverNevada.html (accessed February 15, 

2011).

NASA, International Space Station Program-provided data, February 2010.

NASA, ―Plan to Support Operations and Utilization of the International Space Station Beyond FY 2015, 

pursuant to The NASA Authorization Act of 2008,‖ August 6, 2009, 

http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/472057main_CORRECTED_ISS_Beyond_2015_Report_sec_601_FINAL_8_14_

09.pdf (accessed February 22, 2011).

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, ―Orbital Space Plane Fact Sheet‖, May 2003, 

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/ospfacts.html (accessed February 11, 2011).

NASA, CSA, ESA, JAXA, and Roscosmos, ―The Era of International Space Station Utilization, 

Perspectives on Strategy from International Research Leaders‖ 2010.

National Research Council, ―Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era of Space Exploration: An 

Interim Report.‖ 2010.

National Space Policy of the United States of America, June 28, 2010, 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf (accessed February 21, 

2011).

Orbital Sciences Corporation, ―CygnusTM Advanced Maneuvering Spacecraft,‖ 

http://www.orbital.com/NewsInfo/Publications/Cygnus_fact.pdf (accessed February 7, 2011).

Orbital Sciences Corporation, ―Orbital Submits Proposal for NASA's Commercial Crew Development 

Program,‖ December 14, 2010, http://www.orbital.com/NewsInfo/release.asp?prid=756 (accessed February 

7, 2011).

President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy, A Journey to 

Inspire, Innovate, and Discover, June 2004, 

http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/moontomars/docs/M2MReportScreenFinal.pdf (accessed February 11, 2011).

ProOrbis, LLC, ―Reference Model for the International Space Station U.S. National Laboratory.‖ 2010.

Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee, Seeking a Human Spaceflight Program Worthy of a 

Great Nation, October 2010, http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/396093main_HSF_Cmte_FinalReport.pdf (accessed 

February 11, 2011).

Robinson, Julie A. ―International Space Station: Research Capabilities in Life and Physical Sciences Early 

Utilization Results‖ (presentation to the NRC Decadal Survey, May 7, 2009).

Rogers, Everett M. Diffusion of Innovations, 5

th Edition, Free Press, 2003.
36

Shiryaevskaya, Anna, ―Space Adventures, Russia Agree to Expand Tourist Trips in 2013,‖ Bloomberg 

Businessweek, January 12, 2011, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-12/space-adventures-russiaagree-to-expand-tourist-trips-in-2013.html, (accessed February 11, 2011).

Sierra Nevada Corporation, ―Virgin Galactic Joins in Sierra Nevada Space Systems Dream Chaser Orbital 

Space Vehicle Program,‖ December 15, 2010, http://www.sncorp.com/news/press/pr10/snc_vg.shtml

(accessed February 7, 2011).

Space Adventures, ―Space Adventures Concludes Agreement to Offer Commercial Spaceflight 

Opportunities to the International Space Station,‖ January 12, 2011, 

http://www.spaceadventures.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=news.viewnews&newsid=817 (accessed February 

11, 2011).

Space Commercial Laboratory Applications Working Group. 2010. 

https://sites.google.com/site/spacecommerciallabworkinggroup/ (accessed February 3, 2011).

SPACEHAB, ―Enterprise Module and Space Station Internet Media Company Will Take Space Commerce 

to New Heights,‖ December 10, 1999, http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=269 (accessed 

February 15, 2011).

SpaceX, ―Dragon Overview‖, http://www.spacex.com/dragon.php (accessed February 7, 2011).

SpaceX, ―DragonLab,‖ http://www.spacex.com/downloads/dragonlab-datasheet.pdf (accessed February 7, 

2011).

SpaceX, ―Iridium and SpaceX Sign Major Commercial Launch Contract‖, June 16, 2010, 

http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20100616 (accessed February 16, 2011).

SpaceX, ―Taking the Next Step | Commercial Crew Development Round 2‖, January 17, 2011, 

http://www.spacex.com/updates.php (accessed February 7, 2011).

Stodieck, Louis S., ―ISS National Laboratory: Commercial and Educational Research.‖ (presentation at the 

American Astronautical Society National Conference: ISS - The Next Decade, Cape Canaveral, Florida, 

November 16 – 17, 2010).

Thumm, Tracy, et al, ―The Era of International Space Station Utilization Begins: Research Strategy, 

International Collaboration, and Realized Potential‖ (paper presented at 61st International Astronautical 

Congress, Prague, Czech Republic, September 27 - October 1, 2010).

Uhran, Mark, ―Positioning the International Space Station for the Utilization Era,‖ (presentation at the 49th 

AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, January 4-7, 2011).

ViviSat, ―ViviSat Launched: New Venture Will Provide Satellite Life Extension Services‖, January 13, 

2011, http://www.vivisat.com/?page_id=70 (accessed February 16, 2011).

Wilford, J.N., ―Space Salvage: Lost Satellites are the Prize,‖ New York Times, November 6, 1984.

Webber, D. and Reifert, J. ―Filling in Some Gaps‖, Executive Summary of the Adventurers’ Survey of 

Public Space Travel, September 2006.
37

Appendix A – Historical Astronaut Flights by National Interests

Astronaut Nation Launch 

Date Flight Up Flight Back

Flight 

Time 

(days)

Remek, Vladimir

Czechoslovakia, 

now Czech 

Republic 3/2/1978

Soyuz 28 Soyuz 28 7.93

Hermaszewski, M Poland 6/27/1978 Soyuz 30 Soyuz 30 7.92

Jaehn, Sigmund Germany 8/26/1978 Soyuz 31 Soyuz 29 7.87

Ivanov, Georgy Bulgaria 4/10/1979 Soyuz 33 Soyuz 33 1.96

Farkas, Bertalan Hungary 5/26/1980 Soyuz 36 Soyuz 35 7.86

Tuan, Pham Vietnam 7/23/1980 Soyuz 37 Soyuz 36 7.86

Mendez, Arnaldo Cuba 9/18/1980 Soyuz 38 Soyuz 38 7.86

Gurragcha, J Mongolia 3/22/1981 Soyuz 39 Soyuz 39 7.86

Prunariu, D Romania 5/14/1981 Soyuz 40 Soyuz 40 7.86

Chretien, Jean-Loup France 6/24/1982 Soyuz T-6 Soyuz T-6 7.91

Merbold, Ulf Germany 11/28/1983 STS-9 STS-9 10.32

Sharma, Rakesh India 4/3/1984 Soyuz T-11 Soyuz T-10 7.90

Garneau, Marc Canada 10/5/1984 STS-41-G STS-41-G 8.22

Baudry, Patrick France 6/17/1985 STS-51-G STS-51-G 7.07

AlSaud, Sultan Saudi Arabia 6/17/1985 STS-51-G STS-51-G 7.07

Furrer, Reinhard Germany 10/30/1985 STS-61-A STS-61-A 7.03

Messerschmid, Ernst Germany 10/30/1985 STS-61-A STS-61-A 7.03

Ockels, Wubbo Netherlands 10/30/1985 STS-61-A STS-61-A 7.03

Neri Vela, Rodolfo Mexico 11/27/1985 STS-61-B STS-61-B 6.88

Faris, MA Syria 7/22/1987 Soyuz TM-3 Soyuz TM-2 7.96

Alexandrov, 

Alexander Bulgaria 6/7/1988 Soyuz TM-5 Soyuz TM-4 9.84

Mohmand, A Afghanistan 8/29/1988 Soyuz TM-6 Soyuz TM-5 8.85

Chretien, Jean-Loup France 11/26/1988 Soyuz TM-7 Soyuz TM-6 24.76

Sharman, Helen Britain 5/18/1991 Soyuz TM-12 Soyuz TM-11 7.88

Viehboeck, Franz Austria 10/2/1991 Soyuz TM-13 Soyuz TM-12 7.93

Bondar, Roberta Canada 1/22/1992 STS-42 STS-42 8.05

Merbold, Ulf Germany 1/22/1992 STS-42 STS-42 8.05

Flade, Klaus-Dietrich Germany 3/17/1992 Soyuz TM-14 Soyuz TM-13 7.91

Frimout, Dirk Belgium 3/24/1992 STS-45 STS-45 8.92

Tognini, Michel France 7/27/1992 Soyuz TM-15 Soyuz TM-14 13.79

Malerba, Franco Italy 7/31/1992 STS-46 STS-46 7.97

Nicollier, Claude Switzerland 7/31/1992 STS-46 STS-46 7.97

Mohri, Mamoru Japan 9/12/1992 STS-47 STS-47 7.94

MacLean, Steve Canada 10/22/1992 STS-52 STS-52 9.87
38

Astronaut Nation Launch 

Date Flight Up Flight Back

Flight 

Time 

(days)

Schlegel, Hans Germany 4/25/1993 STS-55 STS-55 9.99

Walter, Ulrich Germany 4/25/1993 STS-55 STS-55 9.99

Haigere, Jean-Pierre France 7/1/1993 Soyuz TM-17 Soyuz TM-16 20.67

Nicollier, Claude Switzerland 12/2/1993 STS-61 STS-61 10.83

Mukai, Chiaki Japan 7/8/1994 STS-65 STS-65 14.75

Merbold, Ulf Germany 10/3/1994 Soyuz TM-20 Soyuz TM-19 31.52

Clervoy, JeanFrancois France 11/3/1994 STS-66 STS-66 10.94

Reiter, Thomas Germany 9/3/1995 Soyuz TM-22 Soyuz TM-22 179.07

Hadfield, Chris Canada 11/12/1995 STS-74 STS-74 8.19

Wakata, Koichi Japan 1/11/1996 STS-72 STS-72 8.92

Cheli, Maurizio Italy 2/22/1996 STS-75 STS-75 15.74

Guidoni, Umberto Italy 2/22/1996 STS-75 STS-75 15.74

Nicollier, Claude Switzerland 2/22/1996 STS-75 STS-75 15.74

Garneau, Marc Canada 5/19/1996 STS-77 STS-77 10.03

Thirsk, Robert Canada 6/20/1996 STS-78 STS-78 16.91

Favier, Jean-Jacques France 6/20/1996 STS-78 STS-78 16.91

Haignere, Claudie France 8/17/1996 Soyuz TM-24 Soyuz TM-23 15.77

Ewald, Reinhold Germany 2/10/1997 Soyuz TM-25 Soyuz TM-24 19.69

Clervoy, JeanFrancois France 5/15/1997 STS-84 STS-84 9.22

Tryggvason, Bjarni Canada 8/7/1997 STS-85 STS-85 11.85

Chretien, Jean-Loup France 9/26/1997 STS-86 STS-86 10.81

Doi, Takao Japan 11/19/1997 STS-87 STS-87 15.69

Kadenyuk, Leonid Ukraine 11/19/1997 STS-87 STS-87 15.69

Eyharts, Leopold France 1/29/1998 Soyuz TM-27 Soyuz TM-26 20.69

Williams, Dafydd Canada 4/17/1998 STS-90 STS-90 15.91

Mukai, Chiaki Japan 10/29/1998 STS-95 STS-95 8.91

Duque, Pedro Spain 10/29/1998 STS-95 STS-95 8.91

Haigere, Jean-Pierre France 2/20/1999 Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz TM-29 188.85

Bella, Ivan Slovakia 2/20/1999 Soyuz TM-29 Soyuz TM-28 7.91

Payette, Julie Canada 5/27/1999 STS-96 STS-96 9.80

Tognini, Michel France 7/23/1999 STS-93 STS-93 4.95

Clervoy, JeanFrancois France 12/20/1999 STS-103 STS-103 7.97

Nicollier, Claude Switzerland 12/20/1999 STS-103 STS-103 7.97

Thiele, Gerhard Germany 2/11/2000 STS-99 STS-99 11.24

Mohri, Mamoru Japan 2/11/2000 STS-99 STS-99 11.24
39

Astronaut Nation Launch 

Date Flight Up Flight Back

Flight 

Time 

(days)

Wakata, Koichi Japan 10/11/2000 STS-92 STS-92 12.90

Garneau, Marc Canada 12/1/2000 STS-97 STS-97 10.83

Hadfield, Chris Canada 4/19/2001 STS-100 STS-100 11.90

Guidoni, Umberto Italy 4/19/2001 STS-100 STS-100 11.90

Haignere, Claudie France 10/21/2001 Soyuz TM-33 Soyuz TM-32 9.83

Vittori, Roberto Italy 4/25/2002 Soyuz TM-34 Soyuz TM-33 9.89

Perrin, Philippe France 6/5/2002 STS-111 STS-111 13.86

DeWinne, Frank Belgium 10/30/2002 Soyuz TMA-1 Soyuz TM-34 10.87

Ramon, Ilan Israel 1/16/2003 STS-107 STS-107 15.94

Duque, Pedro Spain 10/18/2003 Soyuz TMA-3 Soyuz TMA-2 9.86

Kuipers, Andre Netherlands 4/19/2004 Soyuz TMA-4 Soyuz TMA-3 10.87

Vittori, Roberto Italy 4/15/2005 Soyuz TMA-6 Soyuz TMA-5 9.89

Noguchi, Soichi Japan 7/26/2005 STS-114 STS-114 13.90

Pontes, Marcos Brazil 3/30/2006 Soyuz TMA-8 Soyuz TMA-7 9.89

Reiter, Thomas* Germany 7/4/2006 STS-121 STS-116 171

MacLean, Steve Canada 9/9/2006 STS-115 STS-115 11.80

Fuglesang, Christer Sweden 12/9/2006 STS-116 STS-116 12.86

Williams, Dafydd Canada 8/8/2007 STS-118 STS-118 12.75

Shukor, Sheikh 

Muszaphar Malaysia 10/10/2007

Soyuz TMA11Soyuz TMA10 11.00

Nespoli, Paolo Italy 10/23/2007 STS-120 STS-120 15.06

Eyharts, Leopold* France 2/7/2008 STS-122 STS-123 48.25

Schlegel, Hans Germany 2/7/2008 STS-122 STS-122 12.77

Doi, Takao Japan 3/11/2008 STS-123 STS-123 15.76

Yi, So-Yeon South Korea 4/8/2008

Soyuz TMA12Soyuz TMA11 10.00

Hoshide, Akihiko Japan 5/31/2008 STS-124 STS-124 13.76

Wakata, Koichi* Japan 3/15/2009 STS-119 STS-127 137.63

DeWinne, Frank* Belgium 5/27/2009

Soyuz TMA15Soyuz TMA15 187.86

Thirsk, Robert* Canada 5/27/2009

Soyuz TMA15Soyuz TMA15 187.86

Payette, Julie Canada 7/15/2009 STS-127 STS-127 15.70

Fuglesang, Christer Sweden 8/28/2009 STS-128 STS-128 13.87

Noguchi, Soichi* Japan 12/20/2009

Soyuz TMA17Soyuz TMA16 167.00

Yamazaki, Naoko Japan 4/5/2010 STS-131 STS-131 15

Nespoli, Paolo* Italy 12/15/2010

Soyuz TMA20 In progress In 

progress

* These flights were covered by the ISS Partner agreements. For the purposes of this report, these flights are not part 

of the National Interest market. 
40

Appendix B – Discussion of Cost Effectiveness of Commercial Cargo Effort

NASA recently conducted a predicted cost estimate of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle using the NASA-Air 

Force Cost Model (NAFCOM). NAFCOM is the primary cost estimating tool NASA uses to predict the 

costs for launch vehicles, crewed vehicles, planetary landers, rovers, and other flight hardware elements

prior to the development of these systems. 

NAFCOM is a parametric cost estimating tool with a historical database of over 130 NASA and Air Force 

space flight hardware projects. It has been developed and refined over the past 13 years with 10 releases 

providing increased accuracy, data content, and functionality. NAFCOM uses a number of technical 

inputs in the estimating process. These include mass of components, manufacturing methods, 

engineering management, test approach, integration complexity, and pre-development studies. 

Another variable is the relationship between the Government and the contractor during development. At 

one end, NAFCOM can model an approach that incorporates a heavy involvement on the part of the 

Government, which is a more traditional approach for unique development efforts with advanced 

technology. At the other end, more commercial-like practices can be assumed for the cost estimate where 

the contractor has more responsibility during the development effort.

For the Falcon 9 analysis, NASA used NAFCOM to predict the development cost for the Falcon 9 launch 

vehicle using two methodologies:

1) Cost to develop Falcon 9 using traditional NASA approach, and 

2) Cost using a more commercial development approach. 

Under methodology #1, the cost model predicted that the Falcon 9 would cost $4.0 billion based on a 

traditional approach. Under methodology #2, NAFCOM predicted $1.7 billion when the inputs were 

adjusted to a more commercial development approach. Thus, the predicted the cost to develop the Falcon 

9 if done by NASA would have been between $1.7 billion and $4.0 billion.

SpaceX has publicly indicated that the development cost for Falcon 9 launch vehicle was approximately 

$300 million. Additionally, approximately $90 million was spent developing the Falcon 1 launch vehicle

which did contribute to some extent to the Falcon 9, for a total of $390 million. NASA has verified these 

costs.

It is difficult to determine exactly why the actual cost was so dramatically lower than the NAFCOM 

predictions. It could be any number of factors associated with the non-traditional public-private 

partnership under which the Falcon 9 was developed (e.g., fewer NASA processes, reduced oversight, and 

less overhead), or other factors not directly tied to the development approach. NASA is continuing to 

refine this analysis to better understand the differences. 

Regardless of the specific factors, this analysis does indicate the potential for reducing space hardware 

development costs, given the appropriate conditions. It is these conditions that NASA hopes to replicate, 

to the extent appropriate and feasible, in the development of commercial crew transportation systems.