Market AnalysisVehicle Characteristics & Fuel UseVehicleCharacteristics&FuelUseManufacturer Market SharesMay 1 2009May1,2009Agenda1 Executive Summary2H Dt T kHeavyDutyTrucks3Commercial TrailersCommercialTrailersAPPENDIX Data Sources & Methodology2Executive SummaryExecutiveSummaryExecutive SummaryData confirms that the HDV fleet is extremely diverseHigh Level InsightsDataconfirmsthattheHDVfleetisextremelydiverseWith respect to annual fuel use, most important vehicle is CLASS8 TRACTOR pulling a 40-53 ft VAN-type trailerApprox 67% of annual fuel use by the entire HDV fleetMost important target for HDV fuel efficiency regulationLik l th t >50% f STRAIGHT TRUCKS i d ithLikelythat>50%ofSTRAIGHTTRUCKSare equippedwithabox, flat bed, or stake bed bodyUsed to haul various types of freight“Vocational trucks” (dump trucks, refuse haulers, utility trucks,vehicle haulers, etc.) are <15% of new HDV salesCLASS 3 vehicles are 30% of new HDV sales but use only aboutCLASS3vehiclesare30%ofnewHDVsales,butuseonlyabout10% of annual fuelOf these smaller HDVs, most important type is PICK UP truck4Executive SummaryManufacturing of the most numerous and important HDVs isHigh Level InsightsManufacturingofthemostnumerousandimportantHDVsisconcentrated to only a few companiesLargest Class 8 HDVs dominated by 6, mostly U.S., “heavytruck”manufacturersSmallest HDVs (Class 3 -4) dominated by the “big 3” U.S. automanufacturersBoth “truck” and “auto” manufacturers produce significantnumbers of Class 6 HDVsManufacturing of the most numerous types of commercial trailersManufacturingofthemostnumeroustypesofcommercialtrailers(VANs) is dominated by only five trailer manufacturersThe concentration of manufacturing may make implementation ofHDV f l ffi i d d i ?HDVfuelefficiency standards easier?5Executive SummaryMore than half of all inuse HDVs are registered to fleets with tenHigh Level InsightsMorethanhalfofallin-useHDVsareregisteredtofleetswithtentrucks or lessIncludes 35% which are registered to owner-operators with onlya single truckLimited available data suggests that larger fleets buy a greaterpercentage of new vehicles, and that smaller fleets (<trucks)percentageofnewvehicles,andthatsmallerfleets( 10trucks)are more likely to buy used trucksThese ownership patterns may make imposition of HDV fuelefficiency standards more difficult due to the perceived hardshipefficiencystandardsmoredifficultduetotheperceivedhardshipthat they would impose on small businessesSomewhat mitigated by buying habits?6Heavy Duty TrucksHeavyDutyTrucksClass 2B TrucksApproximately 521 000 Class 2B trucks sold in 19998,500 – 10,000 lb GVWRApproximately521,000Class2Btruckssoldin1999Approximately 6.4% of all Class 1 & 2 trucks soldVirtually all were pick-ups, SUVs and large vans82% were pick-upsVirtually all manufactured by Chevy, Ford, GM, or GMCA i t l 1/3 h d di l iApproximately1/3haddieselenginesClass 2B trucks are generally 1 ton or 3⁄4 ton “Heavy Duty” or“Super Duty” modelsIn most cases very similar to Class 2 models from the samemanufacturerMayhave a larger engineggWill likely have heavy-duty springs, suspension, andtransmission8SOURCE: Davis, S. and Truett, L.,Investigation of Class 2b Trucks, Oakridge NationalLaboratory, ORNL/TM-2002/49, March 2002Heavy Duty TrucksMost Popular Class 8 Tractor Models#3#2#1Volvo VN SeriesPeterbuilt 379(discontinued in 2007)Peterbuilt 389#7#6Freightliner Columbia#4International 9200Kenworth T660#811Freightliner CenturyKenworth W900Heavy Duty TrucksExample of Variety of Configurations within a Single “Model”Freightliner Columbia21% market share new tractor registrationsFreightliner Columbia Cab Options12FreightlinerColumbiaCabOptionsHeavy Duty TrucksMost Popular Class 3-4 Straight Truck ModelsClass 3Class 4Class4Ford E450Ford F350Ford E350Ford F450Chevy 3500Isuzu NPRChevy3500GMC W SeriesMitsubishi FEGMC 350015Chevy 4500Chevy G30Heavy Duty TrucksMost Popular Class 6 Straight Truck ModelsInternationalFreightliner#1#243004400FL70M2-106GMC#3#4#5Ford F65075008500Hino 268#1017Sterling ActerraHeavy Duty TrucksMost Popular Class 8 Straight Truck ModelsMack#2#1Kenworth T800TerraProRefuseGranite#3Freightliner#4#15Sterling Acterra#7FLDM2-106M2-11221Intl 7400Summary of Manufacturer Market SharesHDV Manufacturer Corporate StructureDaimler Trucks NAFreightlinerPACCARK thFreightlinerFreightliner Custom ChassisSterling TruckKenworthPeterbiltVolvoWestern StarGeneral MotorsCh l tVolvoMackChevroletGMCNavistar InternationalInternational TrucksWorkhorse Custom ChassisParentSubsidiary23Corporate Parent HDV Market ShareCLASS 6-8CLASS6CLASS 3 - 824Heavy Duty TrucksFleet Size of In-use Trucks26Heavy Duty TrucksFleet Purchase Behaviour27Heavy Duty TrucksFleet Age Distribution28Heavy Duty TrucksEstimated VMT and Fuel Use by Class/Type29Heavy Duty TrucksEstimated VMT and Fuel Use by Class/Type30Commercial TrailersCommercialTrailersCommercial TrailersTrailer TypesVANFLAT BEDFLATBEDDUMPFLAT BED DROP DECKREFRIGERATED VANCONTAINER CHASSISLOW BEDTANKS32[1] Tanks hauling hazardous chemicals [2] dry bulk (i.e. cement) [3] Wood chipsTOP 5: 74% of total market and 89% of VAN type trailersNext 5: 10% of total marketand 7% of VAN type trailersTop 10 manufacturers don’make“specialty”trailers other than FLATBEDsTop10manufacturersdon tspecialtytrailersotherthanFLATBEDsSpecialty trailer manufacturers typically only make one type of trailerIn each specialty category Top 2 manuf generally have 50%+ market shareSummaryAnalysis covers all HDVs greater than 10,000 lb GVWR (Class 3Heavy Duty Truck Types/UsesAnalysiscoversallHDVsgreaterthan10,000lbGVWR(Class3– Class 8) registered between 2003 and 2007On average 684,000 new HDVs registered each yearClass 3 trucks, 30% of new registrationsClass 8 trucks, 30% of new registrationsCl 4k h b 6% d 11%ass–7 trucks, eachbetween6%and11%The largest subset of newly registered HDVs were Class 8TRACTORS(713,000),followed bylarge(Class 3)PICK UP, ), y g ( )trucks (573,000)Class 8 tractors represent 22% of new HDV registrations and68% of new Class 8 truck registrations68%ofnewClass8truckregistrations36SummaryOf ll STRAIGHT TRUCKS th 50% lik l i dHeavy Duty Truck Types/UsesOfallSTRAIGHTTRUCKS, morethan50%arelikely equippedwith some kind of box or flat bed body and are used to haulfreightTrucks registered to CONSTRUCTION companies represent13% of straight trucks (6% of all HDVs)Trucks registered to SANITATION/REFUSE companiesTrucksregisteredtoSANITATION/REFUSEcompaniesrepresent 2% of straight trucks (1% of all HDVs)Other HDV types with large numbers of new registrationsi ldncue-MOTOR HOME (Class 3 – 8): 262,000 (8% of all HDVs)SCHOOL BUS (most Class 7): 148 000 (4% of all HDVs)SCHOOLBUS(mostClass7):148,000(4%ofallHDVs)37SummaryHeavy Duty Truck Market ShareManufacturing of larger trucks is dominated by a few, mostlyManufacturingoflargertrucksisdominatedbyafew,mostlyAmerican, “truck” manufacturersClass 8 TRACTOR: Freightliner, International, Peterbuilt,Kenworth Volvo (90% for top 5)Kenworth,Volvo(90%fortop5)Class 8 STRAIGHT/VOCATIONAL: Mack, International,Sterling, Peterbuilt, Kenworth, Freightliner (88% for top 6)Manufacturing of smaller trucks (Class 3 and 4) is dominated bythe “Big 3 auto” manufacturers:F d Ch l t GMC D d (89%)Ford,Chevrolet,GMC,Dodge(89%)Isuzu, Mitsubishi (10%)Class 6 trucks are produced in significant numbers by both theClass6trucksareproducedinsignificantnumbersbyboththe“truck” and “auto” manufacturers38SummaryHeavy Duty Truck Fuel UseClass 8 tractors account for approximately 57% of annual VMTand 67% of annual fuel used by new Class 3 - 8 HDVsOther Class 8 trucks & buses account for about 13% of annualVMT and fuelSchool Buses 1.9% of fuelTransit buses 1.5% of fuelVocational Trucks 2.8% of fuelOth St i ht t k6 0% f f lOtherStraighttrucks6.0%offuelClass 3 trucks account for 30% of new HDV sales, but only 17%of annual VMT and 10% of annual fuel use39SummaryHeavy Duty Truck Fleet SizeAt the end of 2007 there were 11 6 million HDVs registered in theAttheendof2007therewere11.6millionHDVsregisteredintheU.S.51% of this current in-use fleet are Class 8 trucksClass 8 TRACTORS represent 21% of all in-use HDVs and 39%of in-use Class 8 trucksOt t k t 35% f th t t l ifl t b twner-operatortrucks represent35%ofthetotalin-usefleet,butonly 18% of in-use Class 8 trucks61% of all in-use HDVs are in fleets with less than 10 trucks45% of in-use Class 8 trucks are in fleets with less than 10 trucks40SummaryBetween 2003-2007 1.1 million commercial trailers wereCommercial Trailer Types/UsesBetween200320071.1millioncommercialtrailerswereregistered in the U.S. (average 215,000/year)1.5x as many new trailers as new Class 8 tractorsDry VANS and REFRIGERATED VANS together accounted for68% of new trailer registrationsFLATBEDandFLAT BED DROP DECKtrailers= 10%d O C t a e s 0%CONTAINER CHASSIS = 7%All other “specialty” trailers (DUMP, TANK, GRAIN, HOPPER,etc.) = 15%55% of newly registered trailers are 53 feet long, and virtually allothers are shorter(24–52 feet)75% of newly registered VANS are 53 feet long, and virtually allothers are shorter (24 – 52 feet)41Summary74%oftrailersbuiltby5manufacturersCommercial Trailer Market Share% o t a e s bu t by 5 a u actu e sGreat Dane, Wabash National, Utility Trailer Manufacturing,Hyundai, and Stoughton TrailersPrimarily build VAN, REFRIGERATED VAN, CONTAINERCHASSIS and FLAT BED trailers89% market share for“box type”trailers89%marketshareforboxtypetrailersThe next 5 largest trailer manufacturers have only 10% marketsharePrimarily build VAN, CONTAINER CHASSIS, FLAT BED andFLAT BED DROP DECK trailers42SummaryMost “specialty” trailers are built bymanufactures that specializeCommercial Trailer Market Sharepy y pin only one or two types of trailerSpecialty trailer manufacturers do not build VAN or FLAT BEDtrailers50 different companies have top-10 market share in at least ontype of trailerFor all types of trailers except FLAT BED and DUMP, the top twomanufacturers have 55% - 99% market shareMarket for FLAT BED and DUMP trailers is more fragmentedLarger number of manufacturers and more evenly distributedmarket sharesN f t f DUMP t il h th 12% k tNo manufacturer ofDUMPtrailershas morethan12%marketshare43AppendixData Sources &Analysis Methodologygy44Main Data SourcePolk Automotive TIPNETTM Database –Industry Sales DataDatabase of all heavy-dutyvehicles registered in the U.S.gCan track vehicles currently registered (current fleet)Can track new registrations in any year (sales)Individual vehicles identified by their Vehicle Identification Number(VIN)Encodes information such as MODEL YEAR,WEIGHT CLASS,,VEHICLE TYPE, CAB TYPE, MAKE & MODELDatabase populated by Polk based on “decoding” the VINIncludes registering company informationIncludesregisteringcompanyinformationPolk assigns a REGISTRATION VOCATION based on the type ofbusiness the registering company is inA separate database tracks commercial trailersNew registrations only - can not determine composition of actualcurrent fleet45currentfleetMain Data SourceLimitations of Polk DataVIN isgenerallyassigned bythe chassis manufactureryg yFor most trucks does not include the type of vocational bodyinstalled (freight box, tank, dump, etc)REGISTRATION VOCATION can be used toinferbody type, withlimitationsExample: manybut not all trucks with registration vocationgSANITATION/REFUSE will be refuse trucks; some will beservice trucks, freight trucks, etc.VIN includes truck MAKE and MODEL but“MODEL”is generallyVINincludestruckMAKEandMODEL,butisgenerallybroadly defined by the manufacturerSingle MODEL may include a range of engine sizesSingle MODEL may include a numberof cab types (includingboth day cabs and sleeper cabs for tractors)46Other Data SourcesEstimates of VMT and Fuel UseU.S. Department of Energy, EnergyEfficiency& Renewablegy gy yEnergy,Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 27, 2008;ORNL-6981, Tables 5.1, 5.2, 5.4U S Department of TransportationNational Transit DatabaseU.S.DepartmentofTransportation,NationalTransitDatabase,2005;Table 17 and 19Nathan & Associates,Motor Coach Industry Census 2008,for theA i B A i tiAmericanBusAssociationDavis S and Truett L Investigation of Class 2b TrucksClass 2b TrucksDavis,S.andTruett,L.,InvestigationofClass2bTrucks,Oakridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2002/49, March 2002Fleet Purchase BehaviourTruck Model DataU.S. Census Bureau, Vehicle Inventory & Use Survey, 200247Truck manufacturer web sitesAnalysis MethodologyPolk Automotive TIPNETTM Database –Industry Sales DataVehicles were separated into weight classes based on the VINgdefined weight class assigned by the manufacturerVehicles were separated by type based on either the VIN-definedvehicle type assigned by the manufacturer or based on thevehicletypeassignedbythemanufacturer,orbasedonthe“registration vocation” assigned by PolkUnambiguous VIN-defined vehicle types include: Tractor(combination truck) Pickup Van Step Van Motor Home Fire(combinationtruck),Pick-up,Van,StepVan,MotorHome,FireTruck, Emergency Vehicle, School Bus, and Bus Non-school(Transit Bus or Coach Bus)Oth t i ht t k (t t ) t di t t iOther straighttrucks(non-tractors)were separatedinto categoriesbased on vocation registration (i.e. perceived use) – thesecategories are approximate onlyExample: the majority of trucks with registration vocation“Sanitation/Refuse” will be refuse haulers, but some will be othertypes of trucks used by sanitation companies48Analysis MethodologyEstimated VMT and Fuel Use by Class/TypeFor each type of HDV,total annual fleet VMT and FUEL USE from,new trucks were estimated as follows:VMT (miles) = # of Trucks x Average Annual Mileage (miles/truck)FUEL (gallons) VMT÷Average Fuel Economy (MPG)FUEL(gallons)=VMTAverageFuelEconomy(MPG)For each type of HDV the number of trucks was taken from the PolkTIPNETTM database (new registrations last five years)For each class/type of HDV average annual mileage and averagefuel economy was taken from U.S. Department of Energy statisticsor from other industry sources.49Contact ICCTThegoaloftheInternationalCouncilongoa o t e te at o a Cou c oClean Transportation (ICCT) is todramatically reduce conventional pollutionand greenhouse gas emissions froml bli d d t t ti1225 Eye Street, NWpersonal, public, andgoodstransportationin order to improve air quality and humanhealth, and mitigate climate change. TheCouncil is made upof leadinggovernmentSuite 1000Washington, DC 20005(202) 204-2383p ggofficials and experts from around the worldthat participate as individuals based ontheir experience with air quality andt t ti i1 Hallidie Plaza, Suite 503San Francisco, CA 94102(415) 399-9019transportationissues.The ICCT promotes best practices andcomprehensive solutions to improvevehicle emissions and efficiency,increasewww.theicct.orgfuel quality and sustainability of alternativefuels, reduce pollution from the in-use fleet,and curtail emissions from internationalgoods movementgoodsmovement.