Roadway Safety Data Program

STATE-SPECIFIC HIGHWAY SAFETY MANUAL AND 

SYSTEMIC SAFETY ANALYSIS IN ILLINOIS 

ROADWAY SAFETY DATA AND ANALYSIS

CASE STUDY

FHWA-SA-17-014

Federal Highway Administration Office of Safety

Roadway Safety Data Program

http://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/rsdp/

November 28, 2016
STATE-SPECIFIC HSM AND SYSTEMIC SAFETY ANALYSIS IN ILLINOIS

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Notice

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of 

Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no 

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manufacturers’ names appear in this report only because they are considered essential to the 

objective of the document.

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STATE-SPECIFIC HSM AND SYSTEMIC SAFETY ANALYSIS IN ILLINOIS

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TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION PAGE

1. Report No.

FHWA-SA-17-014

2. Government Accession 

No.

3. Recipient's Catalog No.

4. Title and Subtitle

State-Specific Highway Safety Manual and Systemic Safety Analysis in Illinois: 

Roadway Safety Data and Analysis Case Study

5. Report Date

Month Year 

6. Performing Organization Code

7.Author(s) 

James Hall

8. Performing Organization Report No.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address

Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc (VHB)

8300 Boone Blvd., Suite 700

Vienna, VA 22182-2626 

10. Work Unit No.

11. Contract or Grant No.

DTFH61-10-D-00022

12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address

Federal Highway Administration Office of Safety 

1200 New Jersey Ave., SE

Washington, DC 20590

13. Type of Report and Period

Draft Report November 2016

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

FHWA

15. Supplementary Notes

The contract manager for this report was Esther Strawder. 

16. Abstract

The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) published the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual Illinois User Guide 

with Illinois Calibration Factor and Default Values in 2014. This book provides guidance on incorporating AASHTO 

Highway Safety Manual methods into Illinois roadway safety management practices. Also in 2014, IDOT published the

Systemic Safety Improvements: Analysis, Guidelines and Procedures Guidebook, which enables IDOT to systemically 

analyze crash, roadway, and facility information, select countermeasures, and prioritize safety-related projects. This case 

study describes how IDOT staff use these two related guides to improve safety. 

17. Key Words: 

Highway Safety Manual, crash data, safety data, 

systemic safety

18. Distribution Statement

No restrictions.

19. Security Classif. (of this report)

Unclassified

20. Security Classif. (of this 

page) Unclassified

21. No. of Pages

 18

22. Price

Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed pages authorized
STATE-SPECIFIC HSM AND SYSTEMIC SAFETY ANALYSIS IN ILLINOIS

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STATE-SPECIFIC HSM AND SYSTEMIC SAFETY ANALYSIS IN ILLINOIS

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 1

BACKGROUND............................................................................................................1

IDOT HSM Guide .......................................................................................................1

IDOT Systemic Guide ................................................................................................1

OBJECTIVE....................................................................................................................2

AUDIENCE....................................................................................................................2

IDOT HSM GUIDE PREDICTIVE METHODS.......................................... 2

PROGRAM APPLICATIONS ...................................................................... 3

FLASHING YELLOW ARROWS FOR LEFT TURN CONTROL...........................4

ILLINOIS SYSTEMIC TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES ............................... 4

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM................................................................4

COUNTY DATA TREES..............................................................................................4

EMPHASIS AREA TABLES .........................................................................................5

HEAT MAPS..................................................................................................................5

FIVE PERCENT REPORT ............................................................................................5

DETAILED SYSTEMIC ANALYSIS PROCESS .........................................................5

RESULTS ....................................................................................................... 6

LESSONS LEARNED....................................................................................................6

BARRIERS AND HOW THEY WERE OVERCOME.................................................6

NEXT STEPS.................................................................................................................7

REFERENCES................................................................................................ 8

AGENCY CONTACT INFORMATION .................................................... 9
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List of Figures

Figure 1. Example of a Heat Map showing young driver severe crashes. ...................5
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ACRONYMS

BSPE IDOT Bureau of Safety Programs and Engineering

FHWA Federal Highway Administration

FYA Flashing Yellow Arrow

GIS Geographic Information System

HSM Highway Safety Manual

ICT Illinois Center for Transportation

IDOT Illinois Department of Transportation

LTAP Local Technical Assistance Program

MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization

SHSP Strategic Highway Safety Plan

SPF Safety Performance Functions 

SRI Safer Roads Index
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) published the AASHTO Highway Safety 

Manual Illinois User Guide with Illinois Calibration Factor and Default Values in 2014. This guidebook 

provides guidance on incorporating AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM) methods into 

Illinois roadway safety management practices. IDOT calibrates Safety Performance Functions 

from the HSM for calculating the predicted crash frequency on specific roadway facility types 

and site types in Illinois. Also in 2014, IDOT published the Systemic Safety Improvements: Analysis, 

Guidelines and Procedures guidebook, and IDOT uses this guide to systemically analyze crash, 

roadway, and facility information, select countermeasures, and prioritize safety-related projects. 

IDOT employs a variety of tools and techniques to improve roadway safety in the State, 

including GIS integration, County Data Trees, Emphasis Area tables, Heat Maps, and a Five 

Percent Report.
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INTRODUCTION

Through the AASHTO Highway Safety Manual Illinois User Guide with Illinois Calibration Factor and 

Default Values (hereafter referred to as the IDOT HSM Guide) and the Systemic Safety 

Improvements: Analysis, Guidelines and Procedures Guidebook (hereafter referred to as the IDOT 

Systemic Guide), the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) provides guidance on 

incorporating AASHTO Highway Safety Manual (HSM) methods into Illinois roadway safety 

management practices and implements tools and techniques to systemically analyze crash, 

roadway, and facility information, respectively. This enables safety engineers to screen 

transportation networks, select countermeasures, and prioritize safety-related projects based 

on Illinois specific characteristics. 

BACKGROUND

IDOT HSM Guide

In March 2014, IDOT published the IDOT HSM Guide. The purpose of this guidebook is to 

incorporate the HSM methodology into roadway safety management practices in Illinois. The 

AASHTO HSM provides analytic tools and techniques for quantifying the potential effects on 

crashes as a result of decisions made in planning, design, construction, and operations. 

The HSM also presents the steps to monitor and reduce crash frequency and severity on 

existing roadway networks. The IDOT HSM Guide focuses on the application of the HSM Part 

C, Predictive Method, to roadway safety management practices in Illinois. The Predictive 

Method estimates expected average crash frequency of a network or individual site. 

IDOT Systemic Guide

The HSM describes the reactive roadway safety management process, which includes network 

screening, diagnosis, countermeasure selection, economic appraisal, project prioritization, and 

safety effectiveness evaluation. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Systemic Safety 

Project Selection Tool outlines an approach for proactive safety screening and project 

development. IDOT’s Systemic Guide is similar but is focused on Illinois roadways. The IDOT 

Systemic Guide describes an approach for identifying high priority areas to integrate safety into 

projects and plans throughout the transportation management process. IDOT district staff, 

Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs), and local agencies use these guidelines to direct 

and enhance their safety programs.
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OBJECTIVE

Illinois uses the IDOT HSM Guide to:

 Describe the concepts of the HSM methods in detail, followed by examples with stepby-step application of HSM methodology to Illinois roadway safety management 

practices.

 Communicate the Illinois Safety Performance Function (SPF) calibration factors, 

developed based on Illinois data, to calculate the predicted crash frequency under 

existing and alternative conditions.

Illinois uses the IDOT Systemic Guide to:

 Identify locations that have potential for safety improvement using various tools and 

techniques.

 Provide methods to assess historical roadway, crash, and traffic information for systemic 

analysis for effective policy decisions.

 Economically assess the reduction in societal crash costs based on severity and produce 

benefit-cost ratios for various countermeasures. 

AUDIENCE

This case study applies to the following audiences: 

 State Departments of Transportation: Roadway Data System Managers, Program 

Developers, Safety Engineers, Geographic Information System (GIS) specialists, and IT 

project managers.

 Local Agencies: Regional Planning Commissions, MPOs, cities, and counties, plus Local 

Technical Assistance Programs (LTAPs).

 Consultants and researchers involved with safety data analysis and GIS use in 

transportation safety.

IDOT HSM GUIDE PREDICTIVE METHODS

The HSM Part C predictive method facilitates the calculation of predicted and/or expected 

crash frequency for an individual site or facility. Before the application of the predictive method, 

the safety analyst divides the entire roadway into individual sites that are either homogenous 

roadway segments or intersections. The roadway is converted into a contiguous set of 

individual intersections and roadway segments, each referred to as a “site.” Based on factors 

(e.g., surrounding land use, roadway cross-section), the safety engineer determines the facility 
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type for different sites such as rural two-lane two-way roads, rural multilane highways, and 

urban and suburban arterials. Furthermore, for each facility type, a number of different site 

types may exist, such as divided and undivided roadway segments, or signalized and unsignalized 

intersections.

Based on the facility and site type for the designated location, the investigating agency selects 

the appropriate SPFs and Crash Modification Factors from relevant chapters in the IDOT HSM 

Guide. The agency uses the selected SPFs and coefficients for calculating the predicted crash 

frequency under existing conditions.

IDOT’s Bureau of Safety Programs and Engineering (BSPE) has calibrated the HSM SPFs using 

Illinois data and derived all of the Illinois SPF calibration factors. Considering the differences in 

crash pattern and crash frequency level, BSPE calibrated the HSM SPFs for different IDOT 

jurisdictions and calendar years separately. Correspondingly, when applied to a specific site, the 

analyst selects the Illinois SPF calibration factor from the appropriate table based on the site 

type, IDOT jurisdiction for the site, and the time period for the analysis. In addition to the 

Illinois SPF calibration factors, BSPE also replaced all the default distribution values based on 

facility type, IDOT jurisdiction, and year. 

To promote the implementation of the HSM in Illinois, BSPE developed the IDOT HSM Crash 

Prediction Tool, a Visual Basic for Application-based software for calculating the predicted and 

expected crash frequency for different facility types. The tool incorporates all the detailed 

procedures for crash frequency calculation, and only brief data input is required. With this tool, 

safety analysts can calculate the predicted and/or expected crash frequency for a site, facility, 

and network without any detailed knowledge about the HSM Part C predictive model. 

Therefore, the workload is greatly reduced. 

The IDOT HSM Guide also provides examples of the incorporation of the predictive method 

into the calculation of predicted and/or expected crash frequency in Illinois. Reflecting the 

diversity of the applications in Illinois, the following example roadway sites under different 

facility types are presented: rural two-lane, two-way roadway segment; urban and suburban 

arterial; three-leg intersection with stop control on a rural two-lane, two-way road; and a fourleg signalized intersection on an urban and suburban arterial. Also, analysts calculate different 

crash frequencies for comparing different improvement alternatives and expected crash 

frequency using the Empirical Bayes method. 

PROGRAM APPLICATIONS

The following example illustrates how IDOT used the IDOT HSM Guide to analyze historical 

roadway, crash, and traffic data for effective policy decisions.
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FLASHING YELLOW ARROWS FOR LEFT TURN CONTROL

A 2016 Illinois Center for Transportation (ICT) report (Schattler et al.) investigated the 

effectiveness of Flashing Yellow Arrow (FYA) for permissive left-turns at signalized 

intersections. The study assessed crashes at 86 intersections. As part of the study, ICT 

collected comprehensive crash data for three years prior and three years after FYA installation. 

The study found a 23-percent reduction in left-turn related crashes. The study also assessed the 

age of the driver. Although there was no statistically significant crash reduction for older 

drivers (age 65 and over), there was a 25-percent crash reduction overall and a 36-percent 

crash reduction for young drivers (ages 16 to 21 years).

Employing techniques from the HSM, the study also economically assessed the reduction in 

societal crash costs based on severity (crash savings) balanced against the FYA installation cost 

of $6,000 over a 15-year period. The analysis found a benefit-cost ratio of 19.8. 

ILLINOIS SYSTEMIC TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

In 2014, IDOT published the IDOT Systemic Guide, which describes IDOT’s systemic tools 

used to help identify high priority areas that may benefit from safety countermeasures. These 

tools include GIS, county data trees, emphasis area tables, heat maps, and the five percent 

report. IDOT also employs a detailed systemic analysis process.

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM

GIS is one of the primary tools IDOT uses to analyze crash data. GIS enables the user to view 

and manipulate a wide variety of roadway, crash, and jurisdiction data layers. Safety analysts 

perform queries focusing on specific crash, roadway, and traffic criteria. Users may also 

investigate safety experience at individual locations on a crash-by-crash basis. 

COUNTY DATA TREES

County Data Trees help safety engineers determine which roadway systems to analyze. The 

Data Tree separates crash data between the State, toll/private, county, township, and municipal 

roadway systems. Depending on the jurisdiction of interest, the Data Tree may branch out into 

more detail such as urban/rural classifications and intersections. The primary focus is on severe 

crashes from the most recent five-year period. The five-year period provides a more 

comprehensive understanding of the crashes, rather than random crashes for each year. This 

helps ensure the consideration of severe crash locations for safety improvements. Based on a 

large area data set, data trees allow users to identify the priority jurisdiction, facility and crash 

type to focus additional analysis and subsequent treatment. 
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EMPHASIS AREA TABLES

Emphasis Area tables compare a county’s crash numbers to the entire State’s numbers for 

safety concerns noted in the Strategic Highway Safety Plan (SHSP). Roadway systems are 

divided into State and County/Local. This is similar to Data Trees, but unlike Data Trees, the 

Emphasis Area Tables also show overrepresented categories and behavioral categories. The

addition of behavioral categories allows analysts to examine crash experiences specific to young 

drivers, older drivers, aggressive drivers, drug/alcohol related crashes, 

inattentive/distracted/sleeping drivers and unrestrained occupants. By comparing each Emphasis 

Area against the others, safety analysts can determine which types of crashes should be 

considered for implementing safety efforts.

HEAT MAPS

Heat Maps provide another method to screen locations 

based on driver behavior and crash patterns. These maps 

cover a range of engineering and non-engineering focus 

areas, such as impaired drivers, older drivers, unrestrained 

drivers and/or occupants, young drivers, intersection 

related crashes, non-intersection related crashes, and 

roadway departure crashes. Using the crash count 

intervals per section square in the legend, heat maps show

areas experiencing high levels of a certain problem, as seen 

in Figure 1. For example, heat maps act as a screening tool 

for law enforcement by pinpointing areas with an 

overrepresentation of crashes involving impaired 

or unrestrained drivers. 

Figure 1. Example of a Heat Map 

showing young driver severe crashes. 

FIVE PERCENT REPORT

IDOT develops the Five Percent Report, which describes at least five percent of State 

jurisdiction highway locations exhibiting the most pressing safety needs. The report enables a 

better understanding of the characteristics of the roads and the nature of the road’s safety 

problems. The report also provides another network screening tool that gives users more 

insight on where to implement countermeasures. 

DETAILED SYSTEMIC ANALYSIS PROCESS

To isolate each component of study, the systemic analysis process breaks down roadways into 

intersection or segment categories. If a cluster of severe crashes is occurring on a specific 

stretch of road, the analyst identifies this stretch as a potential “site” to review. Once these 
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types of locations are identified, the agency gathers and reviews all of the crash data for that 

particular segment/corridor or intersection to help determine the contributing factors of a 

crash. 

Another approach considers several elements using a star rating system. The safety engineer 

assigns stars to locations based on characteristics that have a potential safety concern, such as 

skewed intersections, curves with intersections, or hazardous roadside characteristics. If a 

location acquires multiple stars, it is an indication that the location needs further attention. 

RESULTS

LESSONS LEARNED

Illinois strives to incorporate the concept of safety into planning and design of the public

roadway system and to establish a data-driven process for roadway safety management. 

However, given the complexity of safety engineering and the breadth of potential users, the 

adoption of HSM processes and tools is challenging. 

Planned implementation and communication is key for effective adoption by safety engineering 

decision makers. IDOT actively promotes the IDOT HSM Guide and provides guides, training, 

technical support, and user friendly-locally adapted tools for district and local agency safety 

engineers. IDOT also encourages the integration of these safety practices into the design and 

program development process to support safety decisions. 

BARRIERS AND HOW THEY WERE OVERCOME

Illinois recognized that a knowledge gap existed between the HSM methodologies and the 

engineering practices. To advance the practice, IDOT developed the IDOT HSM Guide and 

provided training, tools and case studies. As an example, to address the current needs of local 

agencies, IDOT provides resources to determine contributing factors and to identify optimal 

locations for potential safety improvements with the use of safety funds. IDOT continues to 

develop support materials, analytical tools, and application techniques. 

IDOT found that a major challenge was establishing and supporting integration between 

different traffic records component systems as needed for HSM analyses. Integration attempts 

had to overcome technical, organizational, and policy barriers. Illinois has achieved major 

successes integrating multiple datasets within the injury surveillance and other traffic records 

components to meet specific study requests. The active support and involvement of the Traffic 

Records Coordinating Committee has been instrumental in advancing these data integration 

efforts. These efforts are described in the Roadway Safety Data Governance in Illinois: Roadway 

Safety Data and Analysis Case Study (FHWA-SA-16-108).
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NEXT STEPS

IDOT plans to continue advancing HSM practices into safety engineering decision making. 

IDOTs HSM implementation plan is a multifaceted approach focused on data collection, 

calibration and SPF development, training, policy, manuals and guides, analysis tool 

development, technical support, and countermeasure effectiveness evaluation. IDOT is 

evaluating additional data requirements from MIRE guidelines to provide robust data sets for 

analysis. In particular, IDOT is collecting curve, intersection geometry, and traffic control along 

with roadway and roadside attributes such as signing, guardrail, and guardrail terminals. IDOT 

also plans to expand efforts to further integrate key safety data sets for safety decision makers. 

For example, IDOT is pursuing multiple linkages of roadway, crash, driver, and hospital data to 

enable more extensive analyses. IDOT is also considering improving online access to data and 

resources.

IDOT is enhancing the statewide network screening models used to develop the Five Percent 

and Safer Roads Index (SRI) and is in the process of developing Safety Performance Functions 

for local roadways. The SRI is used to integrate safety performance in the planning and 

programming process by combined evaluation of pavements and safety for project 

prioritization. 

Evaluation is an integral part of road safety management in Illinois. Flexibility and adaptation is 

necessary to continually improve road safety and achieve project and program goals. Illinois is 

working on evaluating the effectiveness of centerline and shoulder rumble strips, high friction 

surface treatment applications, and spot improvements. 

IDOT will continue to advance tools and techniques focused on Illinois characteristics such as 

SRI for local roadways, full implementation of AASHTOWare Safety AnalystTM, and continue to 

advance policy to provide specific guidance and criteria for integrating quantitative and systemic 

approaches.
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REFERENCES

1) Illinois Department of Transportation. AASHTO Highway Safety Manual Illinois User Guide 

with Illinois Calibration Factor and Default Values. Available online at:

http://www.idot.illinois.gov/assets/uploads/files/transportation-system/memos-&-

letters/safety/hsm_il_userguide_11062014.pdf. Accessed 8/15/2016.

2) Illinois Department of Transportation. Systemic Safety Improvements: Analysis, Guidelines and 

Procedures. Available online at 

http://www.idot.illinois.gov/Assets/uploads/files/Transportation-System/Manuals-Guides-&-

Handbooks/Safety/Systemic%20Safety%20Improvements%20Analysis,%20Guidelines%20and

%20Procedures.pdf Accessed 8/15/2016.

3) Schattler, K. L., E. Anderson, T. Hanson, Safety Evaluation of Flashing Yellow Arrows for 

Protected/Permissive Left-Turn Control. Illinois Center for Transportation Research Report 

No. FHWA-CT-16-010, March 2016.

4) Illinois Department of Transportation. Report on the Advisability of Expanding the Use of Cable 

Median Barrier in Illinois. Available online at 

http://www.ediillinois.org/ppa/docs/00/00/00/02/17/96/ReportontheAdvisabilityofExpandingt

heUseofCableMedianBarrierinIllinoisJuly2009.pdf. Accessed 8/23/2016.

5) Illinois Department of Transportation. 2014 Highway Safety Program Annual Evaluation 

Report. Available online at http://www.idot.illinois.gov/transportationsystem/safety/highway-safety-plan. Accessed 6/09/2016.

6) Illinois Department of Transportation. 2016 Highway Safety Plan. Available online at 

http://www.idot.illinois.gov/transportation-system/safety/highway-safety-plan. Accessed 

6/09/2016.

7) Illinois Department of Transportation. 2016 Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP). 

Available online at http://www.idot.illinois.gov/transportation-system/local-transportationpartners/county-engineers-and-local-public-agencies/funding-opportunities/highway-safetyimprovement-program. Accessed 6/09/2016. 

8) Illinois Department of Transportation. 2015 Illinois Travel Statistics. Available online at 

http://www.idot.illinois.gov/transportation-system/Network-Overview/highwaysystem/illinois-travel-statistics Accessed 6/09/2016.

9) Illinois Department of Transportation. 2014 Illinois Crash Facts and Statistics. Available 

online at http://www.idot.illinois.gov/transportation-system/safety/Illinois-Roadway-CrashData#tabs-7. Accessed 6/09/2016.
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10) National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Highway Safety Manual Lead State Third 

Peer Exchange, October 2015, Nashville, Tennessee. NCHRP Research Project Statement 

17-50. Submitted by ch2m. Available online at 

http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/docs/NCHRP17-50_PeerExchange3_Report.pdf

Accessed 11/06/2016.

11) Illinois Department of Transportation. Systemic Safety Improvements: Analysis, Guidelines and 

Procedures. May 2014. Available online at: 

http://www.idot.illinois.gov/Assets/uploads/files/Transportation-System/Manuals-Guides-&-

Handbooks/Safety/Systemic%20Safety%20Improvements%20Analysis,%20Guidelines%20and

%20Procedures.pdf. Accessed 11/30/2016.

AGENCY CONTACT INFORMATION

Priscilla Tobias

Director, Office of Program Development

Illinois Department of Transportation

2300 South Dirksen Parkway

Springfield, IL 62764

Priscilla.Tobias@illinois.gov

Mehdi Nassirpour

Research and Evaluation Chief, Bureau of Safety

Engineering and Programs 

Illinois Department of Transportation

2300 South Dirksen Parkway

Springfield, IL 62764

Mehdi.Nassirpour@illinois.gov