U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,

http://bookstore.gpo.gov. For more information, contact the GPO Customer Contact Center,

U.S. Government Printing Office. Phone 202–512–1800, or 866–512–1800 (toll-free). E-mail, gpo@custhelp.com.

63–306 2011

S. HRG. 111–816 

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: NOVEMBER 2010 

HEARING 

BEFORE THE

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE 

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 

ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS 

SECOND SESSION 

DECEMBER 3, 2010 

Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee 

( 

(II) 

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE 

[Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress] 

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York, Chair 

MAURICE D. HINCHEY, New York 

BARON P. HILL, Indiana 

LORETTA SANCHEZ, California 

ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland 

VIC SNYDER, Arkansas 

KEVIN BRADY, Texas 

RON PAUL, Texas 

MICHAEL C. BURGESS, M.D., Texas 

JOHN CAMPBELL, California 

SENATE 

CHARLES E. SCHUMER, New York, Vice 

Chairman 

JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico 

AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota 

ROBERT P. CASEY, JR., Pennsylvania 

JIM WEBB, Virginia 

MARK R. WARNER, Virginia 

SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas, Ranking Minority 

JIM DEMINT, South Carolina 

JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho 

ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah 

ANDREA CAMP, Executive Director 

JEFF SCHLAGENHAUF, Minority Staff Director 

(III) 

C O N T E N T S 

MEMBERS

Hon. Carolyn B. Maloney, Chair, a U.S. Representative from New York .......... 1 

Hon. Kevin Brady, a U.S. Representative from Texas ......................................... 3 

Hon. Amy Klobuchar, a U.S. Senator from Minnesota ......................................... 5 

WITNESS

Statement of Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. 

Department of Labor; Accompanied by: Mr. Philip Rones, Deputy Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Dr. Michael Horrigan, Associate 

Commissioner for Prices and Living Conditions, Bureau of Labor Statistics . 8 

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

Prepared statement of Representative Carolyn B. Maloney, Chair .................... 22 

Chart titled ‘‘Monthly Change in Private Payrolls’’ ....................................... 24 

Prepared statement of Representative Kevin Brady ............................................ 25 

Prepared statement of Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, together with Press Release No. USDL–10–1662 ...................................... 26 

Chart titled ‘‘In Past Economic Downturns, the Unemployment Rate Was 

Far Lower When Congress Allowed Federal Unemployment Benefits to 

Expire’’ .................................................................................................................. 66 

Letter transmitting Commissioner Hall’s response to Representative Cummings ..................................................................................................................... 67 

(1) 

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: 

NOVEMBER 2010 

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2010 

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, Washington, DC. 

The committee met, pursuant to call, at 9:36 a.m. in Room 216 

of the Hart Senate Office Building, The Honorable Carolyn B. 

Maloney (Chair) presiding. 

Representatives present: Maloney, Cummings, and Brady. 

Senators present: Klobuchar. 

Staff present: Andrea Camp, Gail Cohen, Colleen Healy, Jessica 

Knowles, Rachel Greszler, Jane McCullogh, Jeff Schlagenhauf, Ted 

Boll, and Robert O’Quinn. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE CAROLYN B. 

MALONEY, CHAIR, A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM NEW YORK 

Chair Maloney. The meeting will come to order. 

I recognize myself for an opening statement. Today’s hearing 

with Commissioner Hall will mark the last hearing that I will chair 

as the Chair of the Joint Economic Committee. 

Almost two years ago, shortly after the inauguration of President 

Obama, my first hearing was also with Commissioner Hall, and the 

news that he presented that day was rather grim. The previous 

month, the U.S. economy had shed a staggering 654,000 jobs. Today’s news is a little better. We are trending in the right direction, 

but not as strongly as we wanted. Today’s employment report 

shows the economy added 50,000 private-sector jobs last month, 

making November the 11th straight month of employment gains in 

the private sector. And we can see that in the chart over there. 

[Chart titled ‘‘Monthly Change in Private Payrolls’’ appears in 

the Submissions for the Record on page 24.] 

Since the beginning of the year, the economy has added 1.2 million jobs in the private sector. Private payroll grew by an average 

of 79,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2010; 118,000 jobs 

in the second quarter; and 124,000 jobs in the third quarter. 

While job creation has picked up, the unemployment rate remains unacceptably high. This morning’s employment report 

showed that the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent in November. In addition to overall private-sector job gains, the GDP 

grew by 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2010 due to stronger 

consumer spending. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. 

Retail sales have risen steadily for the past four months. Excluding the more volatile sales of cars and gasoline, retail sales have 

2 

increased steadily since June. Surveys of both the service sector 

and the manufacturing sector show that growth is expected to continue. 

When I became Chair of the JEC in January of 2009, the economy was still reeling under the shocks of the Great Recession. One 

of the people who testified was Christina Romer, Chair of the 

Council of Economic Advisers, and she testified that our economy 

endured shocks during this recession that were even greater than 

the economic shocks of the Great Depression. 

This Committee has closely monitored the employment situation 

and tracked its rebound. Over the past two years, the Joint Economic Committee held over 15 hearings and issued over 40 reports. 

In 2010, consistent with its mission to monitor the employment situation of the country, the JEC focused on job creation, holding 

hearings on problems in the labor market and solutions to spur employment. 

Job creation was also the central focus of the JEC Annual Report, our mandated analysis of the Economic Report of the President, released earlier this year. 

While the economic shocks of the Great Recession will take time 

to heal, the economy has made progress in the past year. The policies that Democrats in Congress quickly put into place over the last 

year are working. Policies do matter. 

We passed the HIRE Act, which provides a payroll tax credit for 

businesses that hire unemployed workers. We passed legislation to 

promote hiring by smaller businesses, the engines of job growth in 

our economy; provided additional tax incentives to small businesses, including the $30 billion Access to Credit Loan Program; 

and raised the cap on SBA 7(a) loans from $2 million to $5 million. 

We extended aid to states to pay for their increased Medicaid 

costs, and we provided additional funding for teachers. The Department of Education estimated that 140,000 teacher jobs were saved 

because of the increase in funding. 

We passed legislation to help our domestic manufacturers by reducing tariffs. We also extended Unemployment Insurance benefits 

to unemployed workers who have been hard hit during this recession. The most recent extension did not raise the number of weeks 

that unemployed workers could receive benefits, but it did reauthorize the program so that unemployed workers could continue receiving those critical benefits. 

However, we are all aware that the latest extension of Unemployment Insurance Benefits ran out this week. For most of the unemployed, the expiration of these benefits will mean that unemployed benefits will stop as soon as they enter their 27th week of 

unemployment. This comes at a cruel time when more than 40 percent of the unemployed have been out of work at least 27 weeks. 

If Congress does not act quickly to renew these benefits, nearly 

2 million unemployed workers will lose their benefits during the 

holiday season. 

Although preliminary reports show a bump up in consumer 

spending on Black Friday, the loss of unemployment benefits will 

have a significant impact on retail spending in the weeks and 

months to come. Prematurely ending the Federal Unemployment 

Insurance Benefits Program will drain the economy of $80 billion 

3 

in purchasing power and cost the economy up to 1 million jobs over 

the next year. 

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, unemployment benefits are one of the most effective tools for boosting 

economic growth and employment. Allowing the Federal Unemployment Insurance Program to expire when the unemployment rate is 

well over 9 percent would be absolutely unprecedented. 

For every recession that has called for Congress to provide emergency unemployment benefits over the past six decades, Congress 

has never let those benefits expire with the unemployment rate 

above 7.4 percent. 

This is a tragic time to break from precedent. It is unfair to the 

millions of families counting on these benefits, and unwise for an 

economy that is still recovering from the Great Recession. 

I hope that we can count on our Republican colleagues in both 

chambers to do the right thing and vote to maintain the current 

Federal Unemployment Insurance Program. 

I yield back the balance of my time, and I recognize my good 

friend and colleague on the other side of the aisle, Congressman 

Brady. 

[The prepared statement of Representative Maloney appears in 

the Submissions for the Record on page 22.] 

OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE KEVIN BRADY, 

A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM TEXAS 

Representative Brady. Thank you, Madam Chairwoman. 

Today we hold the last regularly scheduled employment hearing 

with the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the 111th Congress. Like all 

Americans hoping for an economic turnaround, this has been a difficult two years for members of the Joint Economic Committee with 

employment reports month after month showing large numbers of 

our fellow Americans out of work with stubbornly high rates of unemployment. But the focus of this Committee on the employment 

situation is a critical part of its function as no other aspect of the 

nation’s economic wellbeing is more important than the ability of 

our citizens to find productive work. 

Dr. Hall has had the difficult task of presenting the many reports on the bleak employment conditions to us. He has done so in 

a professional and insightful manner. I want to thank him and his 

staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the effort they make to 

compile the employment data in meaningful ways and for answering our questions. I welcome Dr. Hall again this morning. 

Chairwoman Maloney has held many additional hearings on various aspects of the labor market. I want to thank the Chairwoman 

for her compassion and dedication in setting the Committee’s agenda. We appreciate her leadership in many ways, and again thank 

you for your many months and many hours of hard work. 

Senator Brownback will be leaving the U.S. Senate next year to 

assume his new duties as the Governor of the State of Kansas. I 

sincerely thank him for his service as the Ranking Member on this 

Committee, and congratulate him on his new leadership position. 

All the best to you, your family, and the State of Texas—or the 

State of Kansas. I’m so used to saying that, it just comes out. 

[Laughter.] 

4 

I didn’t put ‘‘great’’ in front of it, but it was in my mind. We wish 

the best to Senator Brownback. 

As we approach the end of the year and of this Congress, the national employment picture unfortunately remains bleak. The unemployment rate increased to 9.8 percent mainly due to an increase 

in the number of jobs lost, not to an increase of new job seekers. 

And this month’s 39,000 increase in payroll employment was very 

disappointing given the expectations. Worse still is the fact that we 

have lost 101,000 payroll jobs since the recession officially ended 17 

months ago. Think about that. Despite nearly $5 trillion of fiscal 

and monetary stimulus, we have 101,000 fewer jobs in America 

than when the recession officially ended. And if we were to compare today’s 9.8 percent unemployment rate to what the White 

House promised when we passed that major stimulus, they projected that unemployment would be at 7 percent this month instead of the staggering 9.8 percent. 

This recovery remains painfully slow, held back I believe by consumers doubtful of the President’s ability to manage this economy, 

and businesses discouraged by watching the Democrats’ tax hikes 

and job-blocking regulations. 

Yesterday’s actions by the House to raise taxes on the very consumers and small businesses most likely to pull us out of this poor 

economy, I think, is more of the same failed economic policies that 

have hindered America’s recovery. 

Economic indicators generally tell us that we are just making a 

painfully slow recovery. In November, total payroll employment 

was not significantly different than it was 17 months ago. Unfortunately, this recovery is too weak and private sector growth is too 

slow to reduce the unemployment rate appreciably, while the federal work force thrives. 

In contrast, by the 17th month of the Reagan recovery after the 

severe 1981–82 recession, total payroll employment had increased 

by 5 million and the unemployment rate had fallen by 3.1 percentage points. 

Why is the current recovery so weak? Among the timeliest explanations is this: With less than one month to go before the tax 

bomb, the nearly $4 trillion tax bomb goes off, Americans are facing dire uncertainty. We cannot expect small, mid-size or even larger businesses to take on large numbers of additional employees 

when the government is raising the cost of employing them gainfully. 

Yesterday’s House vote on a bill that is dead on arrival in the 

Senate was a terrible waste of time. I don’t mean to be too blunt, 

but it was also I think a dumb economic move. No wonder substantial numbers of jobs aren’t being created in America. 

And to make matters worse, within a few days the Federal Government will run out of money. Congressional Democrats and the 

Administration have not been attending to their responsibilities. A 

frantic rush for band-aid fixes is no way to provide guidance to this 

economy. 

In addition to the looming increases in anti-growth tax rates, the 

out-of-control federal spending, and the enormous national debt 

buildup, I have many times addressed the Democrats’ ill-conceived 

health care and energy policies and the failed stimulus. I will not 

5 

repeat those points here, but the burdens and uncertainty they create contribute to the fundamental reasons why this recovery is not 

recovering—why this economy is not recovering faster. 

If we are to see faster economic growth and more rapid job creation, the Administration will have to relent from wasteful 

redistributionist policies and the futile attempt to compensate for 

them with economic pump-priming measures, be they fiscal or 

monetary. 

The government cannot take up positions against business, investment, wealth creation, domestic oil, gas, and coal production, 

and free trade and then expect the economy to grow based on minimum wage increases, extensions of unemployment benefits, and 

increased subsidies to a number of causes. The U.S. economy does 

not work this way, and I doubt that there are any that do. The Administration has been hearing as much from national leaders 

around the world, and I am hopeful it will listen. 

Madam Chairwoman, Dr. Hall, I look forward to hearing your 

testimony. 

[The prepared statement of Representative Brady appears in the 

Submissions for the Record on page 25.] 

Chair Maloney. I thank the gentleman for his comments. I feel 

I must respond to some inaccuracies. 

We have made progress during the past year of the Obama Administration by adding almost 1.2 million private-sector jobs. Compare that to the 8 years of former President Bush, when this country lost 663,000 private-sector jobs. Although President Bush inherited over a $5 trillion surplus, he left with a huge deficit and debt. 

And indeed, the last month he was in office, this country lost over 

750,000 jobs. 

The Bush tax cuts did not help the Bush Administration create 

jobs; in fact, overall they lost jobs in his Administration. 

With the focus on the economy, we are moving in the right direction under President Obama. Just yesterday we passed a tax cut 

to all Americans, and it has now gone to the Senate. We have 

moved the process forward, and we look forward to the response of 

the Senate so we can move forward in a balanced direction to create jobs and grow this economy. 

I now recognize the distinguished Senator, the Great Senator 

Klobuchar. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE AMY KLOBUCHAR, 

A U.S. SENATOR FROM MINNESOTA 

Senator Klobuchar. Thank you very much. Thank you, Congresswomen Maloney, Madam Chairwoman. 

I want to thank you for your service on this Committee. It has 

really been an honor. And I also would join in with Congressman 

Brady in commending you for the way you have run these meetings. 

Congressman Brady, thank you for your leadership. I am looking 

forward to, I hope, continuing to serve on this Committee next 

year. I think there is a lot of good work that we need to do when 

it comes to jobs and the economy, and I guess we start here today. 

No one is pleased when we have this unemployment rate. But at 

the same time, I also think the people of this country have underVerDate Nov 24 2008 08:47 Jan 20, 2011 Jkt 063306 PO 00000 Frm 00009 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C:\DOCS\63306.TXT SHAUN PsN: DPROCT
6 

stood that we could not dig ourselves out of this hole in one month; 

that it was like, someone made the analogy of a freight train going 

200 miles per hour. The way the Wall Street crisis occurred and 

everything else that happened in this country. So there are some 

glimmers of hope here: the 39,000 jobs that were added in November to the economy. 

And it is important to note that we are now one month shy of 

one year straight of employment gains in the private sector. Of 

course, none of it is happening as quickly as we would like. 

I was listening to Congressman Brady, and I agree with some of 

what he has said about the exports, trade, some of those things, 

but I will say that we have seen some improvements with, for instance, consumer confidence, where it’s hit its highest level since 

the financial crisis began with almost 4 in 10 Americans saying the 

economy is now on the right track. 

With growing consumer confidence, it is no surprise to learn that 

retail sales surged up 6 percent in November for the most promising start of the holiday season in three years. We care about this 

in Minnesota. It is a serious matter. We are the home of both Target and Best Buy—I like hawking my companies as the holiday 

season approaches—and they both saw some promising lines of customers out there. 

The other piece of this is the fact that there are more things that 

we need to do going forward. I would first of all point to the work 

that needs to be done with exports for small- and medium-sized 

businesses. We’ve got to start with the small business bill. But 

also, looking at some of the barriers, the red tape barriers to come 

of our most productive industries that have the highest potential 

for exports. I use the example of Medical Device, which is largely 

based in Minnesota, where we’ve seen a 12 percent decline in FDA 

approvals. And with that has come less investment, a third less investment, as well as investment going to places in Europe where 

the safety approval processes move more quickly. 

Tourism, I think I see an easy solution there. We have done a 

lot with passing the Travel Promotion Act, so we can finally promote our country overseas. Yet, when you find out the startling 

statistic that for people in China who want to get a tourist visa to 

visit our country, it takes 50 days average. If they want to go to 

Great Britain, it takes 10 days. 

Every time a foreign tourist comes to America, they spend an average of $4,000. We’ve lost 20 points in the international tourism 

business since 9/11. Easy solutions are there, in terms of improving 

our processes, so it’s easier for tourists to visit our country. 

I think those are things that we should be doing and looking at 

as we consider how Washington can truly help to create private 

jobs. The other piece of this, which was mentioned by the Congressman, is the unemployment. There are a lot of people out there, 15.1 

million Americans, who have lost their jobs through no fault of 

their own. 

Bad decisions that were made on Wall Street have resulted in 

them not being able to find jobs on Main Street. So I believe that 

it is very important that we continue making unemployment benefits available to these Americans. 

7 

The last thing I would say is, in response to some of Congressman Brady’s comments about the tax bills that are before us, I am 

very focused on the deficit right now. Today the Deficit Commission 

is coming out with their recommendations. I don’t think many 

Members of Congress would say they agree with everything in that 

report—I know I don’t. But at the same time, I was heartened to 

see that people from diverse political backgrounds, as Senator Durbin who is now supporting that report, as well as Senator Conrad 

and the Democratic side now joined by Senator Coburn and Senator Crapo, were able to say we need to advance this report and 

move these ideas forward. 

Contained in that report are recommendations along the lines of 

what we are talking about now, about the Bush tax cuts. Of course, 

the middle class needs to have these tax cuts continued, given the 

economic difficulties that we are now facing. But when you go up 

to the upper end, when you even go up to, say, the million dollar 

level, millionaires, people making a million dollars a year, they’ve 

been getting an average of $100,000 back from these tax cuts. And 

as we look at some of the recommendations from the Deficit Commission, I think we would be blinding ourselves if we didn’t at least 

look at the choice of looking at someone making over $250,000 or 

someone making over $1 million a year, where you can bring in either, depending on where you set it, $400 billion over 10 years on 

the deficit, or $700 billion if you set it at $250,000, that is a chunk 

of change. 

So as we look at how we are going to get our country out of this 

economic rut, reducing our deficit will be key. It is going to add 

confidence to the markets if we show that we are doing something 

in the long term, and it is certainly going to be better for our children who are inheriting this debt. 

So I don’t think it is just a Band-Aid to look at where we revert 

to the Clinton levels where, by the way, things were much more 

prosperous in this country. Keeping those Bush levels—I just again 

will emphasize—up to $1 million, imagine it. Millionaires would 

still get the Bush tax cuts up to $1 million. Then it simply reverts 

to the Clinton levels. That is what this debate is about. 

Thank you very much. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you. I now recognize Commissioner 

Hall—but first I would like to introduce him. He is the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the U.S. Department 

of Labor. 

Dr. Hall also served as Chief Economist for the White House 

Council of Economic Advisers for two years under President George 

W. Bush. Prior to that, he was Chief Economist for the U.S. Department of Commerce. Dr. Hall also spent 10 years at the U.S. 

International Trade Commission. 

Thank you very much for your public service, and we now recognize you for as much time as you desire. Thank you. 

8 

STATEMENT OF DR. KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF 

LABOR STATISTICS, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR; ACCOMPANIED BY: MR. PHILIP RONES, DEPUTY COMMISSIONER, 

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS; AND DR. MICHAEL 

HORRIGAN, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER FOR PRICES AND 

LIVING CONDITIONS, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 

Commissioner Hall. Madam Chair and Members of the Committee: 

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and 

unemployment data we released this morning. 

Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in November, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent. The 

jobless rate had been 9.6 percent in each of the prior 3 months. 

Payroll employment has increased by an average of 86,000 per 

month since its recent low point in December of 2009. In November, temporary help services and health care added jobs, while employment fell in retail trade. 

Temporary help services employment increased by 40,000 over 

this month. Since the industry’s most recent low in September 

2009, employment has grown by 494,000. 

In November, health care employment rose by 19,000, including 

a gain of 8,000 in hospitals. Thus far in 2010, the health care industry has added an average of 21,000 jobs per month, about in 

line with average monthly growth in 2009. 

Retail trade employment decreased by 28,000 in November, including declines in department stores, and in furniture and home 

furnishing stores. Other major service-providing industries showed 

little employment change in November. 

Manufacturing employment changed little over the month. Following job growth earlier in 2010, factory employment has been relatively flat on net since May. Elsewhere in the goods-producing 

sector, construction employment also changed little in November, 

while mining employment continued to trend up. 

Turning now to measures from the survey of households, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent in November. Of the 15.1 

million persons unemployed in November, 41.9 percent had been 

jobless for 27 weeks or more. That proportion has been essentially 

unchanged since August. Among the employed, there are 9 million 

individuals working part time in November who preferred full-time 

work, about the same as in October. 

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 64.5 percent 

in November. Among those outside the labor force—that is, persons 

neither working nor looking for work—the number of discouraged 

workers in November was 1.3 million, up from 861,000 a year earlier. These individuals were not looking for work because they believe no jobs were available for them. 

In summary, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent in 

November, and payroll employment was essentially unchanged. 

My colleagues and I would now be glad to answer your questions. 

[The prepared statement of Commissioner Hall, together with 

Press Release No. USDL–10–1662, appears in the Submissions for 

the Record on page 26.] 

Chair Maloney. Well thank you, Commissioner Hall. As you 

know, this is my last hearing as Chair of the Joint Economic ComVerDate Nov 24 2008 08:47 Jan 20, 2011 Jkt 063306 PO 00000 Frm 00012 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C:\DOCS\63306.TXT SHAUN PsN: DPROCT
9 

mittee, so I would like you to give us the best news that you have. 

What is the best news that you have on the economy? 

Commissioner Hall. Well, there were industries that did grow 

this month in terms of employment. Temporary help services rose 

40,000 in the month. Health care also added jobs, about 19,000 

jobs. Transportation and warehousing employment edged up. Leisure and hospitality employment edged up. 

And a little-cited number, the Diffusion Index, giving us some 

idea of how many industries are growing employment and how 

many are losing employment, the Diffusion Index was 52 percent, 

was 52 this month. So that shows that more industries are adding 

jobs than are reducing jobs at the moment. 

I see those as sort of the highlights. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you. That’s good to hear. 

How does this recovery compare with the recoveries from past recessions that were not as deep as this one? 

Commissioner Hall. The last two recessions both had slow recoveries relative to other recessions. So far, this recession has fallen right in I think with those last two recessions—the recoveries 

from the last two recessions. 

We’re probably a little bit ahead of the recovery in the 2001 recession, but we’re a little bit behind the 1990 recession. And of 

course recessions prior to that were a bit deeper. They’ve had 

quicker recoveries than we’ve had so far. 

Chair Maloney. Is there any evidence that the holiday season 

hiring this year will be merrier than last year? 

Commissioner Hall. Well I would say the early employment 

buildup in October was a little bit ahead of last year. In fact, it was 

a fair amount ahead of last year. But November has now fallen 

back a bit. The employment buildup was a little bit less. So I’d say 

on the whole we’re looking, in terms of the employment buildup for 

the holidays, we’re looking at about the same as last year. 

Chair Maloney. Does it look like over-qualified workers will 

still fill positions that might otherwise have gone to less skilled or 

younger workers? Is that happening in the economy? 

Commissioner Hall. It’s hard for us to say on that, since we 

sort of count the numbers. So it’s not obvious, at least in the data 

we collect, what the answer to that question is. 

Chair Maloney. Could you give us a rundown on demographic 

groups on recovery? How do African American men fare? African 

American women? Hispanic men and women? How are they faring 

in the employment situation? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. For African Americans, the unemployment rate went up a little bit. It’s at 16 percent for November, 

which of course is quite a bit higher than the 9.8 percent overall. 

For Hispanics it remains at 13.2 percent, which is also quite a bit 

above the average unemployment rate. 

And both unemployment rates are well above the unemployment 

rate prior to the start of the recession. 

Chair Maloney. At an earlier JEC hearing, you reported on the 

high rates of unemployment among women who are the sole supporters of their families. Are these women still experiencing extremely high rates of unemployment? 

10 

Commissioner Hall. The answer is, yes. The unemployment 

rate for women who maintained families is 13 percent, again well 

above the unemployment rate overall. 

Chair Maloney. And compared to other women who are not 

heads of their families? Is unemployment higher than among 

women generally? 

Commissioner Hall. Well, yes. For adult women the unemployment rate is about 8.4 percent, so 13 is quite a bit above that. 

Chair Maloney. Okay. Thank you. 

Mr. Brady. 

Representative Brady. Thank you, Madam Chairman. 

Dr. Hall, last month 390,000 Americans were laid off or lost their 

part-time jobs; 15.1 million are now unemployed, cannot find work. 

The Federal Reserve Board has lowered its projections for economic 

growth going forward; so has the Blue Chip Consensus. 

I thought it was important for you to acknowledge that compared 

to the severe recession prior to 1990, 1981–1982, that that was a 

much quicker recovery. Because this recovery is very subpar, about 

2 to 3 times slower than the rate of recovery after ’81 and ’82. 

I think—I’m going to ask you, given how slow job growth is 

going, how many years will it take to get back to the Bush year 

average unemployment of 5.5 percent, very slow? 

One other point I want to make, if I could, I want you to think 

about that answer, is that psychology really plays a key role in economic recovery. Yesterday’s vote was a good example of how to discourage job creation. 

Think about who you are looking to tax. You’re going to raise 

taxes on the consumers in the upper income brackets who control 

one out of every three dollars going into our retail stores. 

So those most likely to be able to boost consumption will be 

spending a greater—sending a greater portion of their dollars to 

Washington rather than circulating it around in a local economy. 

And small businesses, which are the driver of job creation in 

America by far, half of all small business income will be taxed 

under that new law. Not all small businesses—in fact, if you just 

look at, if you count Tax ID numbers, it’s only about 3 percent, 

those 3 percent are the most productive and actually create the 

most revenue and create the most jobs, half of that income will be 

taxed at a higher rate under those new taxes. 

It’s hard to believe that either hammering consumers who can 

help pull us out, or the small businesses that can create jobs, is a 

very good economic move. 

And I also question the myth about that money going to reduce 

the deficit. In the last two years, if you look at the seven, technically eight bills, that have gone to the White House and been 

signed by the President that raised taxes, $625 billion, almost as 

much as this tax increase they voted to do yesterday, $625 billion, 

can anyone wager how much of that money went to reduce the deficit? 

The answer is zero. Not a dollar went to reduce the deficit. In 

fact, they spent all the tax increases and doubled it. So it’s like 

being way over your credit card limit. You go ask for help to pay 

it down. Then you take the money and not only do you not pay it 

down, you spend that and twice more to add to the deficit. 

11 

So I think most consumers, most of the public understand that 

myth about taxes and the deficit, that money will only go to an expanded government. Having said that, again, I’m always appreciative of how difficult this economy is, appreciative of the low unemployment rate we had prior to President Obama, and I’d like to 

know how long will it take us at this rate, how many years will 

it take us to get back to that 5.4, 5.5 percent average? 

Commissioner Hall. I think the way I would characterize what 

is going on right now is we’ve had steady job growth all of this 

year. And that’s good. We’ve added 951,000 jobs this year. But that 

comes to about 86,000 per month. And because the population constantly grows and the labor force constantly grows, you need a certain growth in payroll jobs to accommodate the growth in the labor 

force. 

Representative Brady. Is that around 100,000, roughly? 

Commissioner Hall. I would say it’s a bit higher. I would say 

you need somewhere around 130,000 plus. 

Representative Brady. To break even? 

Commissioner Hall. To break even. So I would say so far this 

year the 86,000 per month is not enough to start lowering the unemployment rate. And I think obviously this month we’ve had the 

tick up in the unemployment rate. That’s reflecting that the job 

growth is not strong enough to start reducing it. 

So it makes it really kind of impossible to calculate how long it’s 

going to take, because we’re going to need stronger job growth to 

start lowering the unemployment rate. 

Representative Brady. Have there been some projections out 

there that you’re aware of? 

Commissioner Hall. No—I tend not to look at them, since we 

deal in the actual data. We stay away from trying to forecast this. 

Representative Brady. My sense is that last Christmas time 

when economic growth looked like it was starting to pick up, you 

know, fairly strongly, I think people, economists were estimating it 

would take four to five years. Now that that economic growth has 

slowed by almost half, you know, now we’re looking at, you know, 

heading toward hopefully not the end of this decade, but the time 

frame clearly is being extended each month. I hope we can come 

up with the policies that can get us not just 130,000 each month, 

but, you know, a more robust 200,000 and above in order to get 

these 15 million people back to work. 

Thank you, Dr. Hall. 

Chair Maloney. Senator Klobuchar. 

Senator Klobuchar. Thank you very much, Chair Maloney. 

I always am curious if you see any geographic trends, Commissioner Hall, when you look at the United States. I know when we 

were in the midst of this recession we saw that there was just a 

patchwork of which states were doing better, which states were 

doing worse. There wasn’t really a regional bias. 

And I wonder if you see any regional differences in terms of improvements? 

Commissioner Hall. I’m not sure there’s a clear pattern. I can 

give you some idea of where the different regions sit at the moment. 

12 

For example, the Northeast Region of the United States, the employment is down about 3.8 percent from before the recession. 

That’s at the low end. And the West is down about almost 8 percent. So there are some differences by region. The South is down 

about 4.8—— 

Senator Klobuchar. What do you mean by ‘‘down’’? That the 

unemployment is down more? 

Commissioner Hall [continuing]. No, I mean the number of 

payroll jobs—— 

Senator Klobuchar. Are down, employment is down? 

Commissioner Hall [continuing]. Yes. 

Senator Klobuchar. For the West. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Klobuchar. Okay. 

Commissioner Hall. Other than that, the State patterns, at 

least certainly month to month, are really hard to characterize. 

Senator Klobuchar. And which states have the highest unemployment? And I know these numbers lag behind where your number is for today. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, they lag behind a month. So it’s not 

too old. Right now the highest unemployment rates are Puerto 

Rico, Nevada, Michigan, and California, Florida, Rhode Island, 

those are all states with particularly high unemployment. 

Senator Klobuchar. And the lower unemployment states? 

Commissioner Hall. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, 

New Hampshire, Vermont. Then obviously there’s quite a lot in between. 

Senator Klobuchar. Very good. 

Commissioner Hall. There’s no obvious patterns. 

Senator Klobuchar. How about small business hiring? Earlier 

this week, Automatic Data Processing reported that of the 93,000 

private-sector jobs they saw added last month, 54,000 of the jobs 

were created by businesses with fewer than 50 employees. Do you 

have data that supports that? And does small business hiring serve 

as any kind of an indicator for future economic growth? 

Commissioner Hall. Our data on size of business lags behind 

quite a bit. You know, I think our most recent data only has us 

through May, or something like that. So it still lags behind a bit. 

The job loss in this particular recession was really spread out. A 

much higher percentage of the job loss was in small establishments 

than in the last recession, for example. And I think the recovery 

so far, at least through the early part of this year, a lot of the recovery was in the larger establishments and not so strongly in the 

smaller ones. 

Senator Klobuchar. That would make sense, because our unemployment in Minnesota is at 7.1 percent, and we’ve actually 

seen—we’re number one in the country per capita for Fortune 500 

companies now. So that would explain part of why we have a lower 

unemployment rate I think. 

The other thing I wanted to ask about, you mentioned the parttime job openings. You know, we found in our state that job openings went up 32 percent in September, but 42 percent of the openings are for part-time jobs. And you’ve seen an increase in partVerDate Nov 24 2008 08:47 Jan 20, 2011 Jkt 063306 PO 00000 Frm 00016 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C:\DOCS\63306.TXT SHAUN PsN: DPROCT
13 

time jobs. How many people did you say that would like to work 

full time but are working part time? 

Commissioner Hall. Right now there are almost 9 million people who are part time for economic reasons. 

Senator Klobuchar. And what do you see as a trend for that? 

Commissioner Hall. That hasn’t changed a lot over the last few 

months. I mean, it’s changed a little bit but not a significant 

amount. So that’s been sort of holding. 

Senator Klobuchar. And the Veterans numbers? You know, I 

ask you that every month, where those are. I always find it disconcerting and discouraging that our Veterans coming back from 

Iraq and Afghanistan have higher unemployment. You and I have 

talked about it before. They left when they were maybe in a job, 

and now that job is no longer there, and so they are put at a disadvantage. What are those numbers like? 

Commissioner Hall. The Gulf War Era II Veterans still have 

a higher unemployment rate. It’s about 10 percent as opposed to 

9.1 percent for non-Veterans. 

Senator Klobuchar. And has that gotten a little better lately? 

Or is it about the same? 

Commissioner Hall. It actually has—well, it’s hard to look at 

this data month to month because the sample size is not large, but 

it’s up from about 9.6 percent a year ago. So it is still up over the 

last 12 months. 

Senator Klobuchar. There are some proposals I won’t go into 

now to help some of them get jobs and use the skills that they’ve 

learned, especially with paramedics, those kinds of things. 

The last thing I wanted to ask you was: I am still concerned, as 

I know you are, about the number of long-term unemployed Americans. I recently got a letter from someone in Minneapolis, Jean, 

who wrote saying: 

I lost my benefits in August. I still have not been able to find 

a job. I don’t care about Minnesota’s unemployment rate being 

lower. Unemployed is unemployed. 

Do you see any promising signs for the millions of unemployed 

Americans like Jean from Minneapolis? 

Commissioner Hall. I would have to say, unfortunately, the 

very large number of long-term unemployed hasn’t made a lot of 

movement. Of the 9.8 percent unemployment rate, 4.1 percentage 

points of that is long-term unemployed. And it’s been over 4 percent for over a year now. And that is an extremely high level. 

Senator Klobuchar. So you see my interest in some of these 

longer term competitive issues with the exports, and really looking 

at what are ways that we can get rid of some of the obstacles for 

creating these private sector jobs. Because given that 95 percent of 

our potential customers are outside of our country, I really believe 

that the way we are going to get out of this is by making things 

again, by exporting to the world in any big way. 

Because right now we are just kind of hanging in there, it seems 

to me, and are obviously doing much better than we were, as the 

Congresswoman pointed out, a few years ago but still not getting 

to that point that we want to be. Correct? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Klobuchar. Okay. Thank you, Commissioner. 

14 

Chair Maloney. Thank you, Commissioner Hall. What was November’s long-term—oh, excuse me, Elijah, I’m sorry. You came in 

and I didn’t see you. Elijah Cummings is recognized. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much, Madam 

Chair. I know this is your last hearing, and I want to thank you 

for your leadership. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you. 

Representative Cummings. You’ve done an outstanding job 

addressing the very, very many sensitive issues and difficult issues, 

and the reports and the research that the staff has done under 

your leadership has been extremely helpful to the entire Congress, 

and I want to thank you. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you. 

Representative Cummings. Commissioner, how are you doing? 

Commissioner Hall. I’m doing well, thank you. 

Representative Cummings. Good. What are the current trends 

in worker productivity? And what is the impact of these trends on 

wages? 

Commissioner Hall. The productivity trends have been rather 

high, actually. And, you know, what usually happens after a recession, the early stages of a recovery, productivity gets very high. In 

large part I think it is because basically businesses bring back 

labor kind of slowly. 

And that has certainly been happening. The last productivity 

number was well over 2 percent. The productivity growth was pretty high. And that has not been reflected in wage growth. The wage 

growth, at least out of this report the average hourly earnings I 

think only grew about well under 2 percent I think over the past 

12 months, which is kind of slow growth. 

Representative Cummings. They say that people are—companies are now realizing that they can do more with less, less people, 

and do you think that that’s part of the problem there, too? 

Commissioner Hall. I do think that’s part of what’s going on. 

You know, I think it’s something we can all see when you go shopping. You can see that the use of technology has really changed, 

and I think that will be one of the interesting things to see when 

this recovery strengthens is how the job recovery goes in areas like 

retail trade, et cetera, where we have obvious productivity improvements. 

Representative Cummings. A group of people I am always 

concerned about are those over 50. What are the unemployment 

trends among workers over that age? And do these older workers 

constitute more of the long-term unemployed? Because that’s a 

zone which is kind of a difficult one I guess. Employers I guess are 

not anxious to hire older people, and at the same time they end up 

in that twilight zone. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. The makeup of the long-term unemployed is a concern by age. The older workers, for example, 55 and 

above, the mean duration of unemployment is something over 30 

weeks for those folks, which is higher than any other age group. 

And that is probably part of why the long-term unemployment 

rate is so high. And unfortunately the longer somebody is unemployed, data shows pretty clearly it takes them longer to find work. 

15 

Representative Cummings. You know, there is something else. 

We have got this discussion going on with regard to reducing the— 

I mean increasing the age where people become eligible for Social 

Security. As you do your numbers, I am assuming you are looking 

at people who are retiring. You almost have to, right? 

Commissioner Hall. Right. 

Representative Cummings. Are you finding that people are retiring later, or earlier? Would your numbers even yield any kind 

of information like that? Are you following me? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Cummings. Because the argument I make is 

that in my District a lot of people, by the time they get to be 60, 

because of the difficulty of their jobs they almost have to retire. 

But in other situations, people may have a job where they are sitting down and, you know, not lifting heavy drums and things of 

that nature, and 70, 72 might be a good age. And I am just wondering. What are you finding in that regard? Are people retiring 

earlier because they cannot find jobs? I mean, what are you finding 

going on there? Would you have any information on that? 

Mr. Rones. What we have seen, actually even throughout the recession, is that the older folks are actually staying in the labor 

force longer, as opposed to dropping out. 

Representative Cummings. Okay. 

Mr. Rones. I am sure there are quite a number of reasons for 

that. One is that if you have a job, that job is precious and you 

would tend to hold onto it. But of course a lot of people have lost 

a lot of asset value in their homes and their stocks, and so financially it might have been more difficult to retire than they might 

have planned 10 years ago. 

That is really the only group whose labor force participation rate 

has been increasing over the last few years. 

Representative Cummings. Interesting. So under normal circumstances, while they might not be counted when you look at unemployment, you are seeing at least a slight increase in the number of people who are in the pool to be employed now? Is that 

right? 

Mr. Rones. That’s right. And so among those people in the labor 

force, of course there has been a growing share that were unemployed. That is, that kept looking for work. So some of that labor 

force—by our definition, ‘‘the labor force’’ are people who are working and those who are unemployed. So some of those people are unemployed. But it could be that in other periods people would have 

just, after a certain period of job search, they would have just left 

the labor force, what you might call discouraged workers. Now it 

seems that people are more likely to persevere, and so they become, 

as Commissioner Hall said, they become long-term unemployed. 

That is, they continue to look for work where in other periods— 

well, also in other periods they might have been able to retire because, as you know, a number of years ago private pensions were 

much more common than they have become now. We are much 

more dependent on the 401(k) type of arrangements, rather than 

the traditional pension. 

Representative Cummings. I see my time has expired. Thank 

you, Madam Chair. 

16 

Senator Klobuchar. Madam Chair, could I just have a point of 

clarification? 

Chair Maloney. Yes. 

Senator Klobuchar. I really appreciate Representative 

Cummings’s focus on some of these deficit issues and the Social Security. I share his concerns about the age. 

I just want to point out that, as the Deficit Commission is coming 

out with their report, that actually that recommendation—because 

there is so much misinformation out there—people who have to be 

28 years or younger to have that recommendation affect in any 

kind of increase in the age at which you could get Social Security. 

They have to be 28 or younger right now. 

In addition to that, I just think it is worth looking at, it also increases the benefits for people when they reach a certain age that 

are older. So I know there is a lot of talk about that right now, and 

I always think it is important to get the facts straight, and it is 

worth looking at that recommendation. And of course the focus is 

to shore up Social Security. 

Thank you. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you. 

Commissioner Hall, what was November’s long-term unemployment rate? In other words, what was the share of the civilian workforce that was out of work for 27 weeks or more in November? 

Commissioner Hall. It was 4.1 percent. 

Chair Maloney. And what was the highest long-term unemployment rate in the past when Congress failed to renew Federal Unemployment Benefits? 

Commissioner Hall. Would this be June of 1985? Is that the 

time period? 

Chair Maloney. Well that is what I believe it is, but I am asking you. 

Commissioner Hall. My data says I think that it is June of 

1985—— 

Chair Maloney. Yes, it is. 

Commissioner Hall [continuing]. I just wanted to make sure I 

am correct. 

Chair Maloney. The chart shows June of 1985 at 7.4 percent 

unemployment. 

[Chart titled ‘‘In Past Economic Downturns, the Unemployment 

Rate Was Far Lower When Congress Allowed Federal Unemployment Benefits to Expire’’ appears in the Submissions for the Record 

on page 66.] 

Commissioner Hall. The long-term unemployment rate was 

only 1.1 percent at that time period. 

Chair Maloney. And can you put these numbers into context for 

me? How many long-term unemployed workers are there now 

versus in the past when we failed to extend unemployment benefits? 

Commissioner Hall. Well the number right now is about 6.3 

million. I have the unemployment rate, but I don’t think I have— 

we will look up the number for 1985. 

Chair Maloney. Do you have it? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, we do. It was about 1.3 million, as opposed to 6.3 million. 

17 

Chair Maloney. And what share of the unemployed were longterm unemployed in November versus in the past when federal 

benefits were stopped? 

Commissioner Hall. Well the share of the unemployed that are 

long-term unemployed right now is about 42 percent. We have got 

this. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you. 

[Pause.] 

Commissioner Hall. It was about 15 percent. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you very much. 

Mr. Brady is recognized. 

Representative Brady. Thank you. Let the record note that 

every person under 28 in the room sat up straight after Senator 

Klobuchar talked about the Social Security reforms. But I do think 

it has been helpful for the Deficit Commission to make the point 

that, as life expectancy grows over decades and decades, the Social 

Security age will have to be adjusted at some point. But you’re 

talking 30, 40 years in that process. 

A couple of thoughts. I think obviously construction and manufacturing are major parts of our economy. We were told with the 

Stimulus Bill that we would see the most job gains in manufacturing and construction. But my understanding from your remarks 

is that manufacturing has been flat since the spring, in May. Construction employment has also changed little. As well, mining employment is up a little bit. Construction and manufacturing is not. 

What happened to all those shovel-ready jobs? 

Commissioner Hall. Well I can just tell you where the trends 

were, and I think you fairly characterized the trends in the payroll 

jobs. 

Representative Brady. Energy is obviously a key part of our 

economy. Earlier this year, a terrible BP spill I think revealed 

weaknesses in spill control. But a drilling moratorium was put in 

place pretty hastily over the objections of scientists and those who 

understood energy exploration. 

We have had a shallow-water exploration drilling moratorium 

that continues in many ways because permits simply are not being 

granted to get those workers back to work. Deep-water has had an 

amazing safety record as well over the years, over the decades, yet 

drilling permits still are not being granted there. 

Are we continuing to lose—did we continue to lose energy jobs 

in November? 

Commissioner Hall. Let me see here. 

Representative Brady. My sense is it was around 2,000 jobs. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. We have got mining and logging here. 

I may actually have something a little more detailed. Yes. In mining we gained about 4,000 jobs overall. 

Representative Brady. Energy? 

Commissioner Hall. Right. That would be mining of all sorts, 

oil and gas extraction, support activities for mining, et cetera. 

Representative Brady. I think I’ve got oil and gas extraction, 

minus 2,000 jobs? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, the oil and gas extraction was minus 

2,000, that’s right. But support activities for mining may include 

some things, and that gained 5,500. 

18 

Representative Brady. Petroleum was down 20,000 jobs—no, 

200 jobs is all. So it stayed flat as well. Thank you. 

I know we continue to push the Administration to get these energy workers back working. Energy jobs are not expendable in 

America, especially with so many people out of work. 

It is the holiday season. I wish we had better news today, but 

again I want to reiterate and thank you for the work that, Commissioner, you and your group do. 

And again, thanks for the leadership of Chairwoman Maloney 

throughout the past two years. It has been a fascinating time in 

our economy. We are all looking for those green shoots as positive 

signs. I know through the next session we will continue to do so, 

as well. 

Chair Maloney. I hope so. Thank you. 

Mr. Cummings. 

Representative Cummings. Just a few questions. You know I 

always ask you the Presidential question. That is, that if the President came to you right now and said: ‘‘Commissioner Hall, how 

would you describe the situation? And what do you think we should 

be doing? I mean, are we on the right course?’’ How would you see 

this situation, to summarize your report, and what would you say 

to the President? 

Commissioner Hall. Well—— 

Representative Cummings. You were ready for that question, 

right? You know I always ask you that. 

[Laughter.] 

Commissioner Hall [continuing]. Well, in terms of looking 

backwards, I think we have had relatively steady job growth this 

year. We have had about 951,000 jobs this year, which is good. But 

the job growth just has not yet strengthened enough to start lowering the unemployment rate. 

While it is not unprecedented to have this long period here where 

we are sort of waiting for strong job growth to come on, we are 

going to have to have stronger job growth to start putting people 

back to work and lowering the unemployment rate. 

Representative Cummings. And the other question is that, if 

somebody is looking at this and they are saying I realize I may not 

be able to get a job any time soon, what are my best prospects for 

getting a job? What kind of retraining do I need to do? You know, 

what would you say? In what region of the country do I need to 

be in? 

Commissioner Hall. In terms of sort of the long term job prospects, you know, obviously a lot of the service sectors like health 

care, et cetera, are likely to grow over time in the next 10 years 

with our changing demographics. I think that in particular. 

There are probably a number of other industries which I do not 

have off the top of my head right now, but we did do some longterm employment projections by occupation near the beginning of 

the year. If you like, we can take a look at that and summarize 

some of that for you. 

Representative Cummings. I would love to have that. 

[Letter transmitting Commissioner Hall’s response to Representative Cummings appears in the Submissions for the Record on page 

67.] 

19 

Again, I want to thank you, Commissioner, and Mr. Rones, and 

Mr. Horrigan, for all of your hard work. You all have helped us tremendously, and I thank you so much. I know sometimes you are 

unseen, unnoticed, unappreciated, and unapplauded, and sometimes you bring messages that people do not necessarily want to 

hear, but we do appreciate you. We also appreciate the staff that 

is behind it, the office that’s looking at us right now, I guess, and 

we wish you a happy holiday. 

And again, Madam Chairman, thank you for your leadership. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you so much. 

This is my last hearing as Chair of the Joint Economic Committee. In the last two years, we have had the opportunity to examine a whole variety of critical issues that are vital to our future and 

to our country’s economic well being. 

In the wake of the Great Depression, this Committee was established by the Employment Act of 1946. It seems appropriate that 

the first hearing and the last hearing of this Congress have been 

on the employment situation. 

Dr. Hall, we want to thank you and your team and your staff for 

all of your hard work, for appearing before the JEC each month, 

for your professionalism, and for your public service. Thank you. 

Commissioner Hall. Thank you. 

Chair Maloney. I would also like to thank the other members 

of the JEC. I have valued your insights and have thoroughly enjoyed our spirited exchange of ideas. 

I would like to especially thank Vice Chairman Schumer, Ranking Member Brownback, and Senior Republican House Member Mr. 

Brady. Thank you. 

While this is the last JEC hearing of the 111th Congress, I will 

be issuing at least one more report before the end of the year. As 

the first woman chair of the Joint Economic Committee, I have 

asked the Majority staff to prepare a comprehensive overview of 

women and the economy. I have asked the staff to focus on how 

unleashing women’s economic potential will help fuel our recovery. 

I look forward to releasing that report before I hand over the 

gavel to the next Chair. Again, I thank all of the members of this 

Committee, and thank you very much, Dr. Hall. Thank you. 

Commissioner Hall. Thank you. 

Chair Maloney. This meeting is adjourned. 

[Whereupon, at 10:33 a.m., Friday, November 3, 2010, the hearing of the Joint Economic Committee was adjourned.] 

(21) 

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD 

22 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF CAROLYN MALONEY, CHAIR, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

Today’s Employment Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the economy added 50,000 private sector jobs last month, making November the eleventh 

straight month of employment gains in the private sector. 

Since the beginning of the year, the economy has added 1.2 million jobs in the 

private sector. Private payrolls grew by an average of 79,000 jobs per month in the 

first quarter of 2010, 118,000 jobs in the second quarter, and 124,000 jobs in the 

third quarter. 

While job creation has picked up, the unemployment rate remains unacceptably 

high. This morning’s employment report showed that the unemployment rate edged 

up to 9.8 percent in November. 

In addition to overall private sector job gains, 

• GDP grew by 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2010 due to stronger consumer 

spending. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. 

• Retail sales have risen steadily for the past 4 months. Excluding the more volatile sales of cars and gasoline, retail sales have increased steadily since June. 

• Surveys of both the service sector and the manufacturing sector show that 

growth is expected to continue. 

When I became Chair of the JEC in January 2009, the economy was still reeling 

under the shocks of the Great Recession. 

As CEA Chair Christina Romer pointed out at one of our hearings last year, our 

economy endured shocks during the 2007 recession that were even greater than 

those experienced during the Great Depression. 

During the past two years, this Committee has closely monitored the employment 

situation and tracked its rebound. 

We have held close to 50 hearings and issued over 40 reports. 

In 2010, consistent with its mission to monitor the employment situation of the 

country, the Joint Economic Committee focused on job creation, holding hearings on 

problems in the labor market and solutions to spur employment. 

Job creation was also the central focus of the JEC annual report, our mandated 

analysis of the Economic Report of the President released earlier this year. 

While the economic shocks of the Great Recession will take time to heal, our economy has made substantial progress in the past year. 

The policies that Democrats in Congress quickly put into place over the last year 

are working. 

Policies DO matter. 

We passed the HIRE Act, which provides a payroll tax credit for businesses that 

hire unemployed workers. 

We passed legislation to promote hiring by smaller businesses—the engines of job 

creation in our economy—providing additional tax incentives to them, helping them 

access credit, and raising the cap on SBA 7(a) loans from $2 million to $5 million. 

We extended aid to states to pay for their increased Medicaid costs. We provided 

additional funding for teachers. 

The Department of Education estimated that 140,000 teacher jobs were saved because of this increase in funding. 

We passed legislation to help our domestic manufacturers by reducing their tariffs. 

One of the most important things we did for the 40 percent of unemployed workers who have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer is to extend unemployment 

benefits for them. 

The most recent extension did not raise the number of weeks that unemployed 

workers could receive benefits; but it did reauthorize the program so that unemployed workers could continue receiving those critical benefits. 

But we are aware that the latest extension of unemployment insurance benefits 

ran out this week. 

For most of the unemployed, the expiration of these benefits will mean that unemployment benefits will stop as soon as they enter their 27th week of unemployment—at a cruel time when more than 40 percent of the unemployed have been out 

of work at least 27 weeks. 

If Congress does not act quickly to renew these benefits, nearly 2 million unemployed workers will lose their benefits during the holiday season. 

Although preliminary reports show a bump up in consumer spending on Black 

Friday and Cyber Monday, the loss of unemployment benefits will have a significant 

impact on retail spending in the weeks and months to come. 

23 

Prematurely ending the federal unemployment insurance benefits program will 

drain the economy of $80 billion in purchasing power and cost the economy up to 

a million jobs over the next year. 

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, unemployment benefits 

are one of the most effective tools for boosting economic growth and employment. 

Allowing the federal unemployment insurance program to expire when the unemployment rate is well over 9 percent would be unprecedented and inconceivable. 

Congress never cut off benefits when the pain was this great. Previously, Congress 

has never let benefits expire with an unemployment rate above 7.4 percent. 

There are 5 unemployed workers for every job opening. Moreover, fewer than 1 

in 10 unemployed workers looking for work for a year or more is likely to find a 

job in the coming months. 

This is a tragic time to break from precedent—it is unfair to the millions of families counting on these benefits, and unwise for an economy that is still recovering 

from the Great Recession. 

I hope that we can count on our Republican colleagues in both chambers to do 

the right thing and vote to maintain the current federal unemployment insurance 

program. 

24 


Insert offset folio 1 here 63306.001
25 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN BRADY

Today we hold the last regularly scheduled employment hearing with the Bureau 

of Labor Statistics in the 111th Congress. Like all Americans hoping for an economic turnaround, this has been a difficult two years for members of the Joint Economic Committee with employment reports month after month showing large numbers of our fellow Americans out of work and stubbornly high rates of unemployment. But the focus of this Committee on the employment situation is a critical part 

of its function as no other aspect of the nation’s economic wellbeing is more important than the ability of our citizens to find productive work. 

Dr. Hall has had the difficult task of presenting the many reports on the bleak 

employment conditions to us. He has done so in a professional and insightful manner. I want to thank him and his staff at the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the effort they make to compile the employment data in meaningful ways and for answering our questions. I welcome Dr. Hall again this morning. 

Chairwoman Maloney has held many additional hearings on various aspects of 

the labor market. I want to thank the Chairwoman for her compassion and dedication in setting the Committee’s agenda. We appreciate her leadership. I also want 

to thank Vice Chairman Schumer for his contributions to the JEC. 

Senator Brownback will be leaving the U.S. Senate next year to assume his new 

duties as the governor of the state of Kansas. I sincerely thank him for his service 

as the ranking member on this committee during the 111th Congress and congratulate him on his new leadership position. All the best to you, your family, and the 

state of Kansas, Sam. 

As we approach the end of the year and of this Congress, the national employment picture unfortunately remains bleak. The unemployment rate increased to 9.8 

percent mainly due to an increase in the number of job losers. And this month’s 

39,000 increase in payroll employment was very disappointing given the expectations. Worse still is the fact that we have lost 101,000 payroll jobs since the recession officially ended 17 months ago. 

Economic indicators generally tell us that we are making a painfully slow recovery. In November, total payroll employment was not significantly different than it 

was 17 months ago when the recession officially ended. Unfortunately, this recovery 

is too weak and private sector job growth too slow to reduce the unemployment rate 

appreciably, while the federal work force thrives. In contrast, by the 17th month of 

the Reagan recovery after the severe 1981–82 recession, total payroll employment 

had increased by 5.0 million, and the unemployment rate had fallen by 3.1 percentage points to 7.7 percent. 

Why is the current recovery so weak? Among the timeliest explanations is this: 

within less than one month Americans are facing a nearly $4 trillion tax hike. We 

cannot expect small, mid-size or even larger businesses to take on large numbers 

of additional employees when the government is raising the cost for employing them 

gainfully. 

Yesterday’s House vote on a bill that is dead on arrival in the Senate was a waste 

of time. I don’t mean to be too blunt, but raising taxes on the consumers and small 

businesses we depend on the most to put this economy back on track is a dumb economic move. No wonder substantial numbers of jobs aren’t being created in America. 

To make matters worse, within a few days the federal government will run out 

of money. Congressional Democrats and the Administration have not been attending 

to their responsibilities. A frantic rush for band-aid fixes is no way to provide guidance to the economy. 

In addition to the looming increases in anti-growth tax rates, the out-of-control 

federal spending and the enormous national debt built-up, I have many times addressed the Democrats’ ill-conceived health care and energy policies and the failed 

stimulus. I will not repeat those points here, but the burdens and uncertainty they 

create contribute to the fundamental reasons why the economy is not recovering 

faster. 

If we are to see faster economic growth and more rapid job creation, the Administration will have to relent from wasteful, redistributionist policies and the futile attempt to compensate for them with economic pump-priming measures, be they fiscal 

or monetary. The government cannot take up position against business, investment, 

wealth creation, domestic oil, gas, and coal production, and free trade and expect 

the economy to grow based on minimum wage increases, extensions of unemployment benefits, and increased subsidies to a plethora of causes. The U.S. economy 

does not work that way, and I doubt there are any that do. The Administration has 

been hearing as much from national leaders around the world. 

26 

Dr. Hall, I look forward to hearing your testimony. 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR

STATISTICS

Madam Chair and Members of the Committee: 

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and unemployment data 

we released this morning. 

Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in November (+39,000), 

and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent. The jobless rate had been 9.6 

percent in each of the prior 3 months. Payroll employment has increased by an average of 86,000 per month since its recent low point in December 2009. In November, 

temporary help services and health care added jobs, while employment fell in retail 

trade. 

Temporary help services employment increased by 40,000 over the month. Since 

the industry’s most recent low in September 2009, employment has grown by 

494,000. 

In November, health care employment rose by 19,000, including a gain of 8,000 

in hospitals. Thus far in 2010, the health care industry has added an average of 

21,000 jobs per month, about in line with average monthly job growth in 2009. 

Retail trade employment decreased by 28,000 in November, including declines in 

department stores (¥9,000) and in furniture and home furnishings stores (¥5,000). 

Other major service-providing industries showed little employment change in November. 

Manufacturing employment changed little over the month. Following job growth 

earlier in 2010, factory employment has been relatively flat, on net, since May. Elsewhere in the goods-producing sector, construction employment also changed little in 

November, while mining employment continued to trend up. 

Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls were up by 

1 cent in November to $22.75. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings 

have risen by 1.6 percent. From October 2009 to October 2010, the Consumer Price 

Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 1.2 percent. 

Turning now to measures from the survey of households, the unemployment rate 

edged up to 9.8 percent in November. Of the 15.1 million persons unemployed in 

November, 41.9 percent had been jobless for 27 weeks or more. That proportion has 

been essentially unchanged since August. Among the employed, there were 9.0 million individuals working part time in November who preferred full-time work, about 

the same as in October. 

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 64.5 percent in November. 

Among those outside the labor force—that is, persons neither working nor looking 

for work—the number of discouraged workers in November was 1.3 million, up from 

861,000 a year earlier. These individuals were not looking for work because they 

believe no jobs are available for them. 

In summary, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent in November, and 

payroll employment was essentially unchanged. 

My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions. 

27 


Insert offset folio 2 here 63306.002
28 


Insert offset folio 3 here 63306.003
29 


Insert offset folio 4 here 63306.004
30 


Insert offset folio 5 here 63306.005
31 


Insert offset folio 6 here 63306.006
32 


Insert offset folio 7 here 63306.007
33 


Insert offset folio 8 here 63306.008
34 


Insert offset folio 9 here 63306.009
35 


Insert offset folio 10 here 63306.010
36 


Insert offset folio 11 here 63306.011
37 


Insert offset folio 12 here 63306.012
38 


Insert offset folio 13 here 63306.013
39 


Insert offset folio 14 here 63306.014
40 


Insert offset folio 15 here 63306.015
41 


Insert offset folio 16 here 63306.016
42 


Insert offset folio 17 here 63306.017
43 


Insert offset folio 18 here 63306.018
44 


Insert offset folio 19 here 63306.019
45 


Insert offset folio 20 here 63306.020
46 


Insert offset folio 21 here 63306.021
47 


Insert offset folio 22 here 63306.022
48 


Insert offset folio 23 here 63306.023
49 


Insert offset folio 24 here 63306.024
50 


Insert offset folio 25 here 63306.025
51 


Insert offset folio 26 here 63306.026
52 


Insert offset folio 27 here 63306.027
53 


Insert offset folio 28 here 63306.028
54 


Insert offset folio 29 here 63306.029
55 


Insert offset folio 30 here 63306.030
56 


Insert offset folio 31 here 63306.031
57 


Insert offset folio 32 here 63306.032
58 


Insert offset folio 33 here 63306.033
59 


Insert offset folio 34 here 63306.034
60 


Insert offset folio 35 here 63306.035
61 


Insert offset folio 36 here 63306.036
62 


Insert offset folio 37 here 63306.037
63 


Insert offset folio 38 here 63306.038
64 


Insert offset folio 39 here 63306.039
65 


Insert offset folio 40 here 63306.040
66 


Insert offset folio 41 here 63306.041
67 


Insert offset folio 42 here 63306.042
68 

Æ 


Insert offset folio 43 here 63306.043