in the Northern

United States

Ou t look for Ou t door Re c r e at ion

A Technical Document Supporting the 

Northern Forest Futures Project 

with Projections through 2060
Published by:

USDA Forest Service

Northern Research Station

11 Campus Blvd, Suite 200

Newtown Square, PA 19073

September 2013

Manuscript received for publication: September 2012

For additional copies:

U.S. Forest Service

Publications Distribution

359 Main Road

Delaware, OH 43015

Fax: 740-368-0152

Visit our homepage at: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us

ABSTRACT

We develop projections of participation and use for 17 nature-based outdoor recreation activities 

through 2060 for the Northern United States. Similar to the 2010 Resources Planning Act (RPA) 

assessment, this report develops recreation projections under futures wherein population growth, 

socioeconomic conditions, land use changes, and climate are allowed to change over time. 

Findings indicate that outdoor recreation will likely remain a key part of the region’s future social 

and economic fabric. The number of participants in 14 of the 17 recreation activities is projected to 

increase over the next five decades. In about two-thirds of 17 activities, the participation rate will likely 

decrease, but population growth would ensure increases in the number of adult participants. Some 

climate futures could lead to participant decreases for certain activities. Hunting, snowmobiling, and 

undeveloped skiing appear to be the only activities for which a decrease in participants is likely. Total 

days of participation would generally follow the pattern of participant numbers. With the exceptions 

of hunting, visiting primitive areas, and whitewater activities, snowmobiling, undeveloped skiing, 

total days are expected to increase for the remaining 14 activities, some less so than others because 

of climate differences. 

How to cite this publication: Bowker, J.M.; Askew, Ashley E. 2013. Outlook for Outdoor Recreation 

in the Northern United States. A Technical Document Supporting the Northern Forest Futures Project 

with Projections through 2060. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-120. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 62 p.

Keywords: outdoor recreation, participation rate, climate change, double-hurdle model, recreation 

projections
 i

Outlook for Outdoor Recreation

in the Northern United States

A Technical Document Supporting the Northern Forest Futures Project

with Projections through 2060

J. M. Bowker and Ashley E. Askew

ashley e. askew, doctoral candidate

University of Georgia, Department of Statistics

101 Cedar Street

Athens, GA 30602

j. m. bowker, research social scientist

U.S. Forest Service, Southern Research Station 

320 Green Street

Athens, GA 30602

mbowker@fs.fed.us

706-559-4271
ii
C o n t e n t s iii

CONTENTS

Abstract i n s i d e f r o n t c o v e r 

Introduction 1

Methods and Data 1 2

Results 2 0

Conclusions 5 2

Acknowledgments 5 5

Literature Cited 5 7
iv OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

List of Figures

Figure 1—Regions for the 2010 RPA assessment. | 2

Figure 2—Historical U.S. population and projections through 2060 from the 2010. | 7

Figure 3—Historical U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and projections through 2060. | 8

Figure 4—Projected U.S. land use change by major categories, 2010 to 2060, high economic growth 

and moderate population growth. | 9

Figure 5—Projected change in U.S. forest land by region, 2010 to 2060, high economic growth and 

moderate population growth. | 10

Figure 6—U.S. temperature and precipitation changes from 1961 to 1990 (historical period) to the 

decade surrounding 2060. | 11

Figure 7—Recreation activities with the highest projected growth in participation rate, 

2008 to 2060. | 45

Figure 8—Recreation activities with the lowest projected growth in participation rate, 

2008 to 2060. | 45

Figure 9—Recreation activities with the highest projected growth in total consumption, 

2008 to 2060. | 48

Figure 10—Recreation activities with the lowest projected growth in total consumption, 

2008 to 2060. | 49
C o n t e n t s v

List of Tables

Table 1—Outdoor recreation activities for 2008. | 3

Table 2—Key characteristics of the Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenarios. | 6

Table 3—Socioeconomic and supply variables for modeling and forecasting outdoor recreation 

participation. | 15

Table 4—Climate variables used for estimating and forecasting outdoor recreation participation. | 18

Table 5—Climate variables for each activity participation and days-of-participation model. | 21

Table 6—Projected developed site visit participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 

2008 to 2060. | 23

Table 7—Projected interpretive site visit participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 

2008 to 2060. | 24

Table 8—Projected birding participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 

2060. | 25

Table 9—Projected nature viewing participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 

2008 to 2060. | 26

Table 10—Projected challenge activity participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 

2008 to 2060. | 27

Table 11—Projected equestrian participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 

to 2060. | 28

Table 12—Projected day hiking participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 

2060. | 29

Table 13—Projected primitive area visit participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 

2008 to 2060. | 30

Table 14—Projected motorized off-road participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 

2008 to 2060. | 31

Table 15—Projected motorized snow activity participation and use by adults in the Northern United 

States, 2008 to 2060. | 32

Table 16—Projected motorized water participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 

2008 to 2060. | 33

Table 17—Projected hunting participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 

2060. | 35

Table 18—Projected fishing participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 

2060. | 35
vi OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Table 19—Projected developed skiing participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 

2008 to 2060. | 36

Table 20—Projected undeveloped skiing by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 2060. | 37

Table 21—Projected swimming participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 

2060. | 38

Table 22—Projected floating participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 

2060. | 39

Table 23—Changes in total outdoor recreation participation across 17 activities by adults in the 

Northern United States, 2008 to 2060. | 41

Table 24—Changes in total outdoor recreation days across 17 activities by adults in the Northern 

United States, 2008 to 2060. | 43
Introduct i o n 1

INTRODUCTION

This report addresses a major question considered relevant to the Northern Forests Futures Project, 

namely, “How will population growth, along with changing socioeconomic conditions, demographics, 

land uses, and climate, influence associated demand for natural resource-based recreation?” The 

question is addressed through an analysis of natural resource-based outdoor recreation demand for 

the 20 states that make up the U.S. North (Fig. 1), a region that is bounded by Maine, Maryland, 

Missouri, and Minnesota. 

The report mirrors and extends previous studies that were part of the recent U.S. Forest Service 2010 

Resources Planning Act (RPA) assessment (Bowker et al. 2012) and the Southern Forest Futures 

Project (Bowker et al., in press). Specifically, we developed regional projections of participation and 

use for 17 natural resource-based outdoor-recreation activities, or activity composites (Table 1), 

through 2060. The report was also designed to complement a concurrent study of current and recent 

trends in outdoor recreation in the North (Cordell et al. 2012).

 
Participation and Use

We defined a participant in an outdoor recreation 

activity as an adult resident over the age of 16 

who engaged in that activity at least once in the 

previous 12 months. Participation is a general 

indicator of the size of a given recreation market, 

and it also can be a gauge of public interest. 

Land managers and legislators can benefit from 

knowing how many people participate in a given 

recreation activity as well as how participation 

could change over time and affect both public 

support and potential ecological and social 

carrying capacities (Dale and Weaver 1974, 

Manning 1997). For example, if more than 

80 percent of the population participates 

in hiking but just 4 percent participate in 

snowmobiling, public resource management 

agencies and private land managers may 

see a greater need for hiking trails than for 

snowmobiling trails. Measures of participation, 

either per capita (participation rates) or in 

absolute numbers of participants, provide the 

broadest measure of a recreation market. 

Figure 1

Regions for the 2010 U.S. Resources 

Planning Act (RPA) assessment.

Pacific Northwest

North Central

South Central

Northeast

Southeast

Pacific Southwest

Intermountain

Rocky Mountain

North

South

Pacific Coast

Great Plains

2
Introdu c t i o n 3

Table 1—Outdoor recreation activities for 2008 by participants, participation rate, days, and days per participant 

for Northern residents

Activity Participants 

(millions)b

Percent 

Participating

Days 

(millions)c

Days per 

Participant

Developed Site Use

Visiting Developed Sites – family gatherings, picnicking, developed camping 80.5 82.5 943 11.7

Visiting Interpretive Sites – nature centers, zoos, historic sites, prehistoric sites 67.0 68.6 516 7.7

Observing Nature

Birding – viewing and/or photographing birds 37.2 38.2 3,696 99.8

Viewingd

 – viewing, photography, study, or nature gathering related to 

fauna, flora, or natural settings

79.5 81.5 13,925 175.7

Backcountry Activities

Challenge Activities – caving, mountain biking, mountain climbing, rock 

climbing

9.4 9.5 37.7 3.9

Equestrian 5.8 5.9 72.3 12.6

Hiking – day hiking 32.4 32.7 723.8 22.4

Visiting Primitive Areas – backpacking, primitive camping, wilderness 36.1 36.7 415 11.4

Motorized Activities

Motorized off-road use 17.3 17.6 282.8 16.4

Motorized snow use (snowmobiling) 7.0 7.1 54.8 7.9

Motorized water use 26.1 26.8 378.8 14.7

Hunting and fishing

Hunting – small game, big game, migratory bird, other 11.3 11.7 209.6 18.8

Fishing – anadramous, coldwater, saltwater, warmwater 28.7 29.6 515.7 18.1

Non-Motorized Winter Activities

Downhill Skiing – downhill skiing, snowboarding 11.6 11.6 81.3 7.0

Undeveloped Skiing – cross-country skiing, snowshoeing 4.8 4.8 32.1 6.7

Non-Motorized Water Activities

Swimming – swimming, snorkeling, surfing, diving, visiting beaches 

or watersides

61.7 63.3 1,376 22.2

Floating – canoeing, kayaking, rafting, sailing 18.2 18.7 124 6.8

Source: NSRE 2005-2009, Versions 1 to 4 (January 2005 to April 2009), n=24,073. 

a

Activities are individual or activity composites derived from the NSRE. 

b

Participants are determined by the product of the average weighted frequency of participation by activity for NSRE data from 2005-2009 and the adult 

(>16) population in the US during 2008 (235.4 million).

c

Days are determined by the product of the weighted conditional average days per adult participant and the 

number of participants by activity for NSRE data from 2005-2009.

d

Including birding. 
4 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

A second measure of recreation use is consumption 

or participation intensity. Consumption can be 

measured in number of times, days, visits, or 

trips within a time span, such as a 12-month 

period. The U.S. Forest Service has used such 

consumption measures as recreation visitor 

days and national forest visits. Consumption 

measures of participation (knowing how often 

and for how long people engage in an activity) 

provide an important additional dimension for 

resource managers who need to know how best 

to allocate resources, such as campsites, and 

whether to plan new ones. 

Participation and consumption at the regional 

level provide the broadest measures of an 

outdoor recreation market. The consumption 

measure used in this study is the number of 

days in the previous year that an adult resident 

of the Northern United States reported engaging 

in a specific activity. A day, in this study, follows 

the National Survey on Recreation and the 

Environment (NSRE) definition of an activity 

day—any amount of time spent on an activity 

on a given day, whether or not that activity 

was the primary reason for the outdoors visit. 

Hence, camping at an improved facility for one 

night would constitute two days of camping. A 

person may engage in more than one activity 

per day, and thus, a person’s activity day total 

per year may not exceed 365 for any specific 

activity but it may do so when all activities are 

combined (Cordell 2012). 

These two metrics—participation and 

consumption—are origin based, meaning 

that they result from household-level 

surveying. There is no additional information 

on exactly where the respondent engaged in 

the participation for any activity, although 

research shows that the vast majority of outdoor 

recreation takes place within a few hours’ drive 

of home (Hall and Page 1999). Participation 

rates and participant numbers for 2008, 

along with total days spent participating and 

average days per participant, for the 17 outdoor 

recreation activities examined in this study are 

displayed in Table 1. 

A history of outdoor recreation trends is an 

important indicator of what may happen in the 

near future (Cordell 2012, Hall et al. 2009). 

However, simple descriptive statistics or 

trends do not formally address underlying 

factors and associations that may be driving 

these trends. Thus, a trend may be of limited 

value as an indicator if the time horizon is 

long or if the driving factors are expected 

to deviate substantially from historical 

levels. Trend analysis, therefore, can be 

supplemented with projection models that 

relate participation directly to factors known 

to influence participation behavior. 

The projection models then can be 

used in conjunction with external 

projections of relevant factors, 

including population growth, to 

simulate future recreation 

participation and consumption. 
Introdu c t i o n 5

Such modeling allows changes in recreation 

participation and consumption behavior to be 

assessed in light of large changes in demographics, 

economic conditions, land use, climate, and other 

previously unseen influential factors.

Previous research has demonstrated that 

race, ethnicity, gender, age, income, supply, 

and proximity to settings may be related to 

the rate of outdoor recreation participation 

as well as the participation intensity or 

consumption (Bowker et al. 1999, Bowker et al. 

2006, Cicchetti 1973, Hof and Kaiser 1983b, 

Leeworthy et al. 2005). Along with distance 

and quality descriptors and other factors, these 

have been used to explain visits to specific sites 

(Bowker et al. 2007, Bowker et al. 2010, Englin 

and Shonkwiler 1995, Ovaskainen et al. 2001). 

Reliable information about these factors is often 

available from external sources such as the 

U.S. Census Bureau or from parallel research 

efforts to model and simulate influential 

variables into the future. Such information thus 

can be available long before recreation survey 

results are published.

A two-step approach was used to project 

participation and consumption of 17 traditional 

outdoor recreation activities (Table 1). The first 

step, model estimation, focused on developing 

regional level statistical models of adult per 

capita participation and days of participation 

(conditional on being a participant) for each 

activity, with the participation model describing 

the probability of an individual participating in 

a specified activity and the consumption model 

describing the number of days of participation 

for those activities in which an individual 

participated. This information improves 

understanding of the influences on individual 

recreation choices or behaviors and of the way 

that individual recreation choices or behavior 

might respond to changes in underlying factors 

such as demographics, resource availability, 

and climate. 

The second step, or simulation step, combined 

the estimated models with external projections 

of relevant explanatory variables to generate 

estimated per capita participation probabilities 

and conditional expected days of participation 

for each activity at 10-year intervals to 

2060. These were combined with population 

projections to develop regional estimates 

for each activity, which were used to create 

indices by which 2008 baseline estimates of 

participants and days of participation for the 

various activities (Table 1) could be scaled. 
6 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

The resulting indices of 

estimated adult participants 

for each of the 17 activities 

and days of annual 

participation are presented 

for an updated version of 

an emissions storyline 

(high economic growth 

with moderate population 

growth) from the Intergovernmental Panel 

on Climate Change in combination with three 

associated climate futures that were derived 

from the three general circulation models—

CGCM3.1 and CSIROMK3.5 downloaded from 

the World Climate Research Program Climate 

Model Intercomparison Project 3 website, and 

MIROC3.2 downloaded from the IPCC Data 

Distribution Centre (Joyce et al., in press)—

described below.

Model Development

The conditions during the projection period 

for this report are based on one of three 

scenarios used for the 2010 RPA assessment 

(U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest 

Service 2012). Three RPA scenarios were 

developed to describe alternative national 

and county-level futures which were linked 

to emissions storylines developed during the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

third and fourth assessments (IPCC 2007), 

thereby providing context and quantitative 

linkages between national and global trends 

including assumptions and projections of global 

population growth, economic growth, bioenergy 

use, and climate (Alcamo et al. 2003, IPCC 

2007, Nakic’enovic’ et al. 2000). 

Table 2—Key characteristics of the Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenarios. 

General global description Globalization, 

economic 

convergence 

Regionalism, 

less trade 

Slow change, 

localized solutions 

Global real GDPb

 growth (2010-2060) High (6.2X)c Low (3.2X) Medium (3.5X)

Global population growth (2010-2060) Medium (1.3X) High (1.7X) Medium (1.4X)

IPCC global expansion of primary 

biomass energy production

High Medium Medium

U.S. GDP growth (2006-2060) High (3.3X) Medium (2.6X) Low (2.2X)

U.S. population growth (2006-2060) Medium (1.5X) High (1.7X) Low (1.3X)

a

Global characteristics are based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) emissions assumptions. U.S. characteristics are from 

the 2010 Resources Planning Act (RPA) assessment.

b

GDP = Gross Domestic Product.

c

Numbers in parentheses are the factors of change in the projection period. For example, world GDP (gross domestic product) increases by a 

factor of 6.2 times between 2010 and 2060 for scenario RPA A1B. 

Characteristica Scenario RPA AIB Scenario RPA A2 Scenario RPA B2
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 7

Of the three storylines—A1B (high economic 

growth, moderate population growth), A2 

(moderate economic growth, high population 

growth), and B2 (low economic growth, low 

population growth)—only A1B was used for 

this study. Table 2 summarizes key global and 

national characteristics of all three storylines. 

Population projections were developed for 

each RPA scenario. Projections for the original 

A1B storyline were based on the 1990 Census. 

These were updated to align with the 2004 Census 

population series for 2000 to 2050 (U.S. Census 

Bureau 2004), with an extrapolation to 2060. The 

population projections for the original A2 and B2 

were updated to begin at the same starting point, 

in year 2000, and to then follow a projection path 

that maintains the same proportional relationship 

to A1B as in the original projections. Figure 2 

illustrates the population projections for the 

three updated storylines relative to historical 

population trends (Zarnoch et al. 2010). 

Figure 2

Historical U.S. population and projections 

through 2060 from the 2010 Resources 

Planning Act assessment. 1960 1965 1970

197519801985199019952000200520102015202020252030203520402045205020552060

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Number of people (millions)

Historical

High economic growth, moderate population growth (A1B)

Moderate economic growth, high population growth (A2)

Low economic and population growth (B2)
8 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Macroeconomic trends—such as Gross Domestic 

Product (GDP), disposable personal income, 

and labor productivity—critically influence the 

supply and demand of renewable resources, and 

thus, also influence recreation demand. Because 

the original storylines were based on economic 

data from the early 1990s, GDP projections 

were updated to start with the official GDP value 

for 2006 (U.S. Department of Commerce 2008a). 

GDP growth rates, provided by a commissioned 

report, were applied to develop an adjusted 

projection for A1B. Revised A2 and B2 

projections maintained the same proportional 

relationship among the three storylines as 

defined by the original GDP projections (U.S. 

Department of Agriculture Forest Service 2012). 

Figure 3 shows the differences among the three 

projections for updated GDP in comparison to 

historical records. 

Projections of personal income and disposable 

personal income also were developed. U.S. 2006 

personal income and disposable personal income 

data were used to start the updated projection 

for A1B (U.S. Department of Commerce 2008b). 

A2 and B2 projections for personal income and 

disposable personal income maintained the 

same proportional relationship that was used to 

calculate the trajectories for GDP. The national 

disposable personal income and personal 

income projections were then disaggregated to 

the county level (U.S. Department of Agriculture 

Forest Service 2012).

196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015202020252030203520402045205020552060

50,000

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Gross do

mestic product (billion dollars)

Historical

High economic growth, moderate population growth (A1B)

Moderate economic growth, high population growth (A2)

Low economic and population growth (B2)

Figure 3

Historical U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) 

and projections through 2060 from the 

2010 Resources Planning Act assessment 

(2006 U.S. dollars).
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 9

The RPA projections were completed before 

the global economic downturn that began in 

2008. Because data from 2006 were the most 

recent, that year was chosen as the base year 

for economic variables. The projection trend 

line from 2006 to 2010 does not account for the 

downturn in GDP and other economic variables 

through 2010, creating a discontinuity in the 

early years of the projection period. Long-term 

projections are not intended to predict economic 

ups and downs, meaning that periodic economic 

recessions would not be a part of the projected 

50-year trend. Although the recent global 

recession was severe, the range of alternatives 

included in the RPA assessment have varying 

rates of economic growth, both for the United 

States and globally, providing a robust set of 

projections across the range of potential futures.

Land use change is a key factor in outdoor 

recreation participation and demand. Land use 

change was projected for all counties in the 

contiguous United States in five major land use 

classes: pasture, cropland, forest land, rangeland, 

and urban and developed uses (Wear 2011). Within 

these categories, no land use change was assumed 

to occur on Federal land; additionally, uses were 

held constant over the projection period for water 

area, enrolled Conservation Reserve Program lands, 

and utility corridors for fuels, water, and electricity. 

The projected changes in major land uses at the 

national level for A1B are summarized in Figure 4. 

This pattern of change is similar for A2 and B2, 

but with smaller changes than A1B (U.S. 

Department of Agriculture Forest Service 2012). 

Figure 4

Projected U.S. land use change by major categories, 2010 to 2060, under a future of high 

economic growth and moderate population growth (A1B); no land-use change was assumed to 

occur on Federal land, and uses were held constant for water area, enrolled Conservation Reserve 

Program lands, and utility corridors for fuels, water, and electricity (source: 2010 Resources 

Planning Act assessment). 

Rangeland

Pasture

Forest

Cropland

Urban

Area (million acres)

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

2010 to 2060

2010 to 2050

2010 to 2040

2010 to 2030

2010 to 2020
10 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

In all, increases in urban and developed uses 

are expected to be the dominant force in land 

use change, with other land uses projected 

to lose area accordingly. The highest rate of 

urbanization is associated with A1B and the 

lowest with B2, suggesting that strong growth 

in personal income combined with moderate 

population growth creates more development 

pressure than population growth alone. Urban 

and developed area would increase by 69 million 

acres from 2010 to 2060 for A1B, almost 

doubling the amount of urban area over the 

projection period (Wear 2011).

Forest land would decrease by almost 31 million 

acres over the projection period under A1B, 

compared to 16 million acres under B2 

(Wear 2011). The South (Fig. 5) is projected to 

experience the largest decrease in forest area 

by 2060, about 17 million acres in A1B. 

These large losses reflect both a history of 

comparatively abundant forest resources 

and a future likelihood of comparatively high 

population growth and urbanization. The North 

has the second largest loss of forest land in A1B 

(almost 10 million acres), followed by smaller 

losses in the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Coast. 

Although losses of forest land are smaller in A2 

and B2, the pattern of forest land loss is similar 

for all regions; the exception being the Pacific 

Coast where A2 predicts higher forest loss than 

A1B, but the difference is quite small (Wear 

2011). Moreover, public forest and rangeland 

are expected to remain relatively static over the 

projection period.

Figure 5

Projected change in U.S. forest land by region, 

2010 to 2060, under a future of high economic 

growth and moderate population growth (A1B); 

no land-use change was assumed to occur 

on Federal land, and uses were held constant 

for water area, enrolled Conservation Reserve 

Program lands, and utility corridors for fuels, 

water, and electricity (source: 2010 Resources 

Planning Act assessment).

South

North

Rocky Mountain

Pacific Coast

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

1997 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

AREA (thousand acres)
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 11

After private forest land, cropland is expected 

to lose the most acreage, mostly in the Eastern 

United States, which currently has more cropland 

than the Western States. Cropland losses are 

nearly equally split between the North and 

South (Wear 2011). Rangeland losses are 

concentrated in the Rocky Mountains, which 

has about half the total rangeland losses. The 

remainder of rangeland losses is split between 

the South (primarily in Texas) and the Pacific 

Coast (mostly southern California). 

Few large-scale studies have been conducted 

to relate climate to outdoor recreation, but an 

underlying assumption of this report is that 

long-term climate changes can affect recreation 

demand. Each storyline from the Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change had multiple associated 

climate projections, which varied in response to the 

associated levels of greenhouse gas emissions. They 

also varied because of differences in the general 

circulation models that were associated with them 

in the RPA assessment (Joyce et al., in press).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

climate projections first were downscaled to the 

approximately 10-km scale and then aggregated 

to the county scale (Joyce et al., in press). At 

the scale of the contiguous United States, the 

average annual temperatures and total annual 

precipitation under A1B represent the warmest 

and the driest climate at 2060 (Fig. 6). Within 

A1B, the CGCM3.1 reflects the coolest (plus 2.55 

oC) and wettest (plus 62.32 mm) climate over 

the projection period, and MIROC3.2 reflects the 

warmest (plus 4.21 oC) and driest (minus 107.39 

mm); intermediate to them is CSIROMK3.5 

with moderate temperature (plus 2.73 oC) and 

precipitation (plus 37.54 mm) changes. Although 

all areas of the United States show increases 

in temperature, the rates of change among 

regions vary somewhat, and regional differences 

in precipitation projections vary considerably 

(Joyce et al., in press).

Figure 6

U.S. temperature and precipitation changes 

from 1961 to 1990 (historical period) to the 

decade surrounding the year 2060 (2055 to 

2064) under a future of high economic growth 

and moderate population growth (A1B) and 

climate scenarios predicted by three general 

circulation models of climate change: CGCM3.1, 

CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2. (source: 2010 

Resources Planning Act assessment).

2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

PRECIPITation CHANGES (mm) by 2060

A1B CGCM3.1

A1B CSIROMK3.5

A1B Average

Temperature changes (C ̊) by 2060

A1B MIROC3.2
12 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Summary

The purpose of this report is to evaluate how 

changes in population, demographics, economic 

conditions, land use, and climate likely will 

affect participants and days of participation in the 

North for 17 natural resource-based recreation 

activities. The demographic, climate, and land 

use projections described above were used to 

develop projections of future resource uses and 

conditions. Not all of the projected variables were 

used in all models, but all of the projection models 

used some subset of these variables. As a result, 

the projections and their underlying assumptions 

provide a common framework for comparing results 

across three climate futures associated with A1B. 

This report proceeds in three main parts. First, 

we present the statistical methods and previous 

research that underlie regional per capita 

participation and consumption models. Next, we 

describe the data used in the estimation step, 

including projections of the various income 

and population growth factors and relevant 

assumptions—and we present estimation and 

simulation steps for regional participation and 

days projections by activity and climate future 

for A1B to 2060. Finally, we discuss some of the 

key findings within and across categories, and 

in association with the factors that are likely to 

drive change over the projection period. 

Methods and Data

Models used to assess recreation demand 

decisions can be grouped into three basic 

categories: (1) site-specific user models, 

(2) site-specific aggregate models, and 

(3) population-level models. Cicchetti (1973) 

pioneered cross-sectional population-level models 

with the household-based 1965 National Survey 

of Recreation, which estimated annual participation 

and use nationally for many outdoor recreation 

activities; then used estimated models and 

Census Bureau projections of sociodemographic 

variables and population to forecast participation 

and use to 2000. Researchers have used the 

cross-sectional population-level approach to 

estimate and project participation and use for 

recreation activities at national and regional 

levels (Bowker 2001; Bowker et al., in press; 

Hof and Kaiser 1983a; Leeworthy et al. 2005; 

Walsh et al. 1992) and for previous RPA 

assessments (Bowker et al. 1999, Bowker et al. 

2012, Hof and Kaiser 1983b). Researchers also 

have used alternative approaches—combining 

population data with individual site-level data 

or county-level data—to project national or 

regional recreation demand (Bowker et al. 2006, 

Cordell and Bergstrom 1991, Cordell et al. 1990, 

Englin and Shonkwiler 1995, English et al. 1993, 

Poudyal et al. 2008). 

A major drawback of cross-sectional models, 

imposed by the nature of the data, is that 

the structure of the estimated models 

remains constant over the forecast period. 
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 13

For example, the factors that influence 

participation or use are assumed to have the 

same effects throughout the projection period. 

Hence, with model parameters constant in 

time and barring major shifts in demographics, 

the results often are driven by population 

growth. This assumption can be tenuous. One 

consequence is that new sports brought about 

by technological changes or shifts in tastes 

and preferences (such as mountain biking, jet 

skiing, snowboarding, flat-water kayaking, and 

orienteering) are less likely to be correctly 

represented in the models. Moreover, if data are 

collected while activities are in a new or rapid 

growth phase, recent trends can be misleading; 

for example, although Cordell (2012) reported 

a recent increase in kayaking participation of 

154 percent in less than a decade, sustaining 

such a rate of growth for 50 years would be 

unlikely. A further drawback of these models is 

the difficulty of accounting for the dampening 

effects of future congestion, supply limitations, 

economic downturns or upswings, and relative 

price changes on growth in participation and 

use. Nevertheless, without appropriate timeseries data or panel data, researchers are left 

with the inherent limitations of cross-sectional 

models, as a second-best alternative to estimate 

and forecast participation and use.

Regional cross-sectional population-level logistic 

models were used to describe the probability of 

adult participation in each of the 17 activities as:

Pi = [1+exp 

1 

(–Xi Bi)] (eq. 1)

where

Pi = the probability that an individual participated 

in recreation activity i in the preceding year

Xi = a vector that contains sociodemographic 

characteristics unique to activity i across 

individuals, relevant supply variables for activity i

across individual locations (Table 3), and at 

least one climate variable related to conditions 

at or near the individual’s residence

Bi = a vector of parameters associated with activity i

Data were manipulated using SAS 9.1 (2004) 

and models were estimated using NLOGIT 4.0 

(Greene 2009).

Logistic models for each activity, based on NSRE 

data from 1999 to 2008 (U.S. Department of 

Agriculture Forest Service 2009), were combined 

with 2008 baseline population-weighted sample 

averages for the explanatory variables to create 

an initial predicted per capita participation rate 

for each activity. The per capita participation 

rates were recalculated at 10-year intervals using 

projected changes in the explanatory variables. 

Indices then were created for the participation 

rates by which the NSRE 2005 to 2009 average 

population-weighted participation frequencies 

(Table 1) were scaled, leading to indexed per capita 

participation rates for each of the 17 activities. 
14 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

We opted to index the NSRE averages by 

changes in model-predicted rates because doing 

so mitigates the potential for nonlinearity biases 

that are associated with complete reliance on 

logistic predicted values (Souter and Bowker 

1996). The indexed participation rate estimates 

then were combined with projected changes in 

population, according to each of the three 2010 

RPA assessment scenarios, to yield indexed 

values for total adult participants in the region 

across the 17 activities.

Participation intensity or consumption models 

were similar to the participation models listed 

above except that an integer metric represented 

use—the number of times, days, visits, trips, 

or events was modeled rather than the binary 

(yes/no) decision to participate. The general 

specification for the population-level consumption 

model was: 

Yi = f(Xi, Qi) + ui (eq. 2)

where

Yi = the annual number of different days during 

which an individual participates in activity i

Xi = a vector of individual sociodemographic 

characteristics

Qi = a vector of supply relevant variables 

for activity i

ui = a random disturbance term specific 

to activity i

These integer or count data models are often 

estimated using negative binomial specifications 

with a link function of semi-logarithmic form 

(Bowker 2001, Bowker et al. 1999, Zawacki 

et al. 2000). 

Variations of these consumption/demand models 

have been developed for onsite applications, 

where all observed visits were recorded as 

positive integers (Bowker and Leeworthy 

1998). Such zero-truncated models have been 

applied extensively in onsite recreation demand 

estimation and valuation research (Bowker et al. 

2007, Englin and Shonkwiler 1995, Hagerty 

and Moeltner 2005, Ovaskainen et al. 2001). 

In some studies, the estimated models have 

been extrapolated to general populations, 

assuming that visitors and nonvisitors come 

from the same general population of users 

(Englin and Shonkwiler 1995). This approach, 

wherein population data are combined with 

individual site-level data, was suggested by 

Cordell and Bergstrom (1991) and used in 

a previous RPA assessment by Cordell et al. 

(1990) with linear models to estimate outdoor 

recreation trips for 31 activities and to project 

the number of trips by activity from 1989 to 

2040. English et al. (1993) extended the RPA 

models and projections to the regional level by 

combining parameter estimates from national 

models with regional explanatory variable 

values. Among others, Hagerty and Moeltner 

(2005) question the efficacy of extrapolating 

parameter estimates from the onsite demand 

models to the population at large.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 15

Table 3—Socioeconomic and supply variables for modeling and forecasting outdoor recreation participation and 

days-of-participation by American adults.

Gender 1=Male, 0=otherwise

American Indian 1=American Indian, 0=otherwise

Asian/Pacific Islander 1=Asian/Pacific Islander, 0=otherwise

Hispanic 1=Hispanic, 0=otherwise

Black 1=African American, 0=otherwise

Bachelors 1=Bachelor degree, 0=otherwise

Below High School 1=Less than high school, 0=otherwise

Post Graduate 1=Post-graduate degree, 0=otherwise

Some College 1=Some college or technical school, 0=otherwise

Age Respondent age in years

Age Squared Respondent age squared

Income Respondent household income (2007 dollars)

Population Density County area divided by population (base 1997)

Coastal 1=County on coast, 0=otherwise

For_ran_pcap Sum of forest land acres and rangeland acres divided by population at county level and 

at 50, 100, 200-mile radii (base 1997) 

Water_pcap Water acres divided by population at county level and at 50, 100, 200-mile radii 

(base 1997) 

Mtns_pcap Mountainous acres divided by population (base 1997)

Pct_mtns_pcap Percentage of county acres in mountains divided by population multiplied by 100000 

(base 1997) 

Natpark_pcap Number of nature parks and similar institutions divided by population multiplied by 

100000 (base 1997) 

Fed_land_pcap Sum U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau 

of Land Management, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Tennessee Valley Authority, and U.S. 

Army Corps of Engineers acreage divided by population (base 1997)

Avg_elev Average elevation in meters at county level and 50-, 100-, 200-mile radii (base 1997)

Variable Description
16 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Household data, such as from the NSRE, may 

report zero visits; doing so eliminates problems 

related to onsite samples and extrapolating 

onsite models to general populations. In a 

previous RPA assessment analysis, Bowker et al. 

(1999) used data from the 1994 to 1995 NSRE, 

the U.S. Census, and the 1997 Forest Service 

National Outdoor Recreation Supply Information 

System database to project of participation and 

consumption (annual days and trips) for more 

than 20 natural resource-based outdoor activities, 

both nationally and in four geographical regions 

of the United States, from 2000 to 2050. That 

analysis moved beyond participation modeling 

to include negative binomial count models to 

estimate consumption (days and trips annually) 

and to project these measures over the same 

time period. Bowker (2001) followed the same 

approach, using NSRE and State-level data 

in projections from 2000 to 2020 of outdoorrecreation participation and consumption in 

Alaska. Leeworthy et al. (2005) used NSRE 

2000 data in projecting participation and 

consumption of marine-related outdoor 

recreation through 2010. Bowker et al. (2006) 

applied similar methods with 2000 NSRE and 

National Visitor Use Monitoring data (English 

et al. 2002, U.S. Department of Agriculture 

Forest Service 2010) in developing projections 

of wilderness and primitive area recreation 

participation and consumption from 2002 

through 2050. 

Alternatively, if one suspects that observed 

zeros for the dependent variable (days of 

participation) are excessive or not entirely 

caused by the same data generating process 

as the positive values, using a hurdle model 

structure or a zero-inflated count procedure 

would be appropriate (Cameron and Trivedi 

1998). The hurdle model that we employed 

combines the probability of participation 

(threshold) with the estimated number of days 

for those participating, as shown below. 

E[Y|X] = Pr[Y > 0|X1] * Ey>0[Y|Y > 0, X2]

where

E = expected value operator

Pr = probability of participation

Y = days of participation

X = vector of explanatory variables.

The hurdle model allowed different vectors 

of explanatory variables (X1 and X2), and 

thus parameters, for the respective products 

of the expectation in eq. 3—probability and 

conditional-days portions of the model—with 

probability estimated as a logistic (eq. 1) and 

conditional days estimated as a truncated 

negative binomial, thus leading to two unique 

sets of estimated parameters. Each of the 

17 regional outdoor recreation activity day 

hurdle models were estimated with NLOGIT 

4.0 (Greene 2009), using 1999 to 2009 NSRE 

data for U.S. households (U.S. Department of 

Agriculture Forest Service 2009), county-level 

(eq. 3)
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 17

climate data (Joyce et al., in press), countylevel land use data (Wear 2011), and recreation 

supply data (Cordell et al. 2012). Although we 

did not formally test the hurdle model against 

the simpler untruncated negative binomial 

model (Bowker et al. 1999) for each activity, 

the parameter estimates and the significant 

variables for the logistic portion nearly always 

differed from the conditional days portion, thus 

validating the choice of the hurdle model.

As in the procedure for the participation models 

and indices, hurdle model parameter estimates 

were combined with 2008 NSRE baseline 

participation and days estimates (Table 1), 

projected explanatory variables, and projected 

population changes under each of the climate 

scenarios to provide indices of annual days-ofparticipation growth projections for the activities 

listed in Table 1. The three climate scenarios 

(CGCM3.1, MIROC3.2, and CSIROMK3.5) were 

used in conjunction with A1B.

Table 3 lists socioeconomic and supply variables 

for the various models and projections. The 

preponderance of these variables was included 

in the NSRE database (U.S. Department of 

Agriculture Forest Service 2009). Additional 

variables related to supply were obtained from 

Cordell et al. (2013). Projections of land use 

change variables were obtained from Wear 

(2011). Historical as well as projected climate 

data were obtained from Joyce et al. (in press). 

As little or no literature was available to link 

climate with household participation and 

consumption of recreation activities, an ad 

hoc approach was followed during the model 

estimation stage, wherein climate variables 

were created based on 6-year moving averages 

and arbitrary distances from county centroids. 

Table 4 lists representative climate variables. 

Each estimated model was limited to one 

climate variable; selection occurred on an ad 

hoc basis, primarily based on model fit.
18 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Table 4—Climate variables used for estimating and forecasting outdoor recreation participation and days-ofparticipation by American adults.

Ppt_monthly_ 

average_d100a

Daily average of precipitation for all months for resident county and counties within 

100 miles of resident county centroid

Ppt_monthly_ 

average_d200

Daily average of precipitation for all months for resident county and counties within 

200 miles of resident county centroid

Spring_PET_d200 Spring average daily potential evapotranspiration for resident county and counties 

within 200 miles of resident county centroid

Tmax_fall_d50 Average monthly maximum fall temperature for resident county and counties within 

50 miles of resident county centroid

Tmax_geq_25_d200 Percentage of month where average monthly maximum temperature exceeded 

25 degrees Celsius for resident county and counties within 200 miles of resident county 

centroid

Tmax_geq_35 Percentage of months where average monthly maximum temperature exceeded 

35 degrees Celsius in the resident county 

Tmax_geq35_d100 Percentage of month where average monthly maximum temperature exceeded 

35 degrees Celsius for resident county and counties within 100 miles of resident county 

centroid

Tmax_geq35_d200 Percentage of month where average monthly maximum temperature exceeded 

35 degrees Celsius for resident county and counties within 200 miles of resident county 

centroid 

Tmax_spring Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in spring in the resident county

Tmax_spring_d100 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in spring for the resident county 

and counties within 100 miles of resident county centroid

Tmax_summer Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in summer in the resident 

county

Tmax_summer_d50 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in summer for the resident 

county and counties within 50 miles of resident county centroid

Tmax_summer_d100 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in summer for the resident 

county and counties within 100 miles of resident county centroid

Tmax_summer_d200 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in summer for the resident 

county and counties within 200 miles of resident county centroid

Tmax_winter Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in winter in the resident county 

Tmax_winter_d100 Average of the average monthly maximum temperature in winter for the resident county 

and counties within 100 miles of resident county centroid 

Tmin_leq_0 Percent of month where average monthly minimum temperature was below 0 degrees 

Celsius in the resident county

Tmin_leq_neg10 Percent of month where average monthly minimum temperature was below -10 degrees 

Celsius in the resident county

Variable Description
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 19

Table 4 continued

Total_ppt_d100 Monthly average of total monthly precipitation in resident county and counties within 

100 miles of resident county centroid

Total_ppt_d200 Monthly average of total monthly precipitation in resident county and counties within 

200 miles of resident county centroid

Winter_PET_d50 Average of average daily potential evapotranspiration in winter for resident county and 

counties within 50 miles of resident county centroid

Winter_PET_d200 Average of average daily potential evapotranspiration in winter for resident county and 

counties within 200 miles of resident county centroid

Yearly_PET_d200 Average of average daily potential evapotranspiration for resident county and counties 

within 200 miles of resident county centroid

a

All averages are calculated over 6-year periods, for example, historic data are based on 2001 to 2006 data, 2060 projections are based on 

averages from 2055 to 2060. Seasons were divided into 3-month periods based on the following categories: winter (December, January, and 

February), spring (March, April, and May), summer (June, July, and August), and fall (September, October, and November).

Variable Description
20 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Results

As discussed in the previous section, results 

were estimated for 17 outdoor recreation 

participation models (eq. 1). All models included 

socioeconomic variables, in addition to at least 

one variable reflecting land use change or 

relative supply of settings typically associated 

with the particular activity. The estimated 

equations are reported in the Appendix 

(found on the CD included with this report). 

In addition, each model included one climate 

variable (Table 5). Reported results include 

parameter estimates for each activity, values 

for explanatory variables by scenario and year, 

odds ratios which indicate the probability of 

participation occurring in one group compared 

to the probability of it occurring in another group, 

fit statistics, and graphics of total participant 

growth by activity and climate scenario. 

Logistic parameter estimates then were 

combined with available projections of relevant 

explanatory variables under the updated A1B 

storyline (high economic growth, moderate 

population growth), including one associated 

with each of the three climate scenarios—the 

coolest and wettest CGCM3.1, the warmest 

and driest MIROC3.2, and the intermediate 

CSIROMK3.5—to create indexed per capita 

participation estimates at 10-year intervals 

through 2060. These indices were, in turn, 

combined with population projections for A1B 

to develop estimated participant indices. 

The participant indices then were applied to 

a beginning baseline estimate of participants 

for each activity (based on weighted regional 

averages calculated from 2005 to 2009 NSRE 

data) to yield the projected number of adult 

participants. The 4-year average around 2008 

was chosen to avoid any abnormality associated 

with a single year.

The hurdle model (eq. 3) combined the 

probability of participation in an activity with 

the expected value of days participating, given 

that the individual actually participated. The 

estimated logistic models were thus combined 

with conditional participation days models to 

complete the hurdle model. Given that only 

those who participated were included in the 

conditional days portion of the model (thus 

ensuring no zero observations for days), 

a truncated negative binomial model was 

employed for estimation. As with the logistic 

participation models above, days models were 

estimated for each of the 17 outdoor recreation 

activities reported in Table 1. Table 5 lists 

climate variables used in the days models.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 21

Table 5—Climate variables used for estimating and forecasting outdoor recreation participation and 

days-of-participation.

Developed site use Participation

Days

Summer_PET_d200

Spring_PET

Interpretive site use Participation

Days

Total_ppt_d100

Fall_PET

Birding Participation

Days

Spring_PET_d200 

Total_ppt_d50

Nature viewing Participation

Days

Summer_PET_d200 

Total_ppt_d50

Challenge Participation

Days

Total_ppt 

Total_ppt_d50

Equestrian Participation

Days

Summer_PET_d200 

Tmin_fall

Day hiking Participation

Days

Winter_PET_d200 

Total_ppt_d50

Primitive area use Participation

Days

Fall_PET_d200 

Summer_PET_d50

Off-road driving Participation

Days

Tmax_fall_d200 

Total_ppt_d200

Motorized water Participation

Days

Summer_PET_d50 

Total_ppt_d200

Motorized snow Participation

Days

Winter_PET_d200 

Total_ppt_d100

Hunting Participation

Days

Fall_PET_d100 

Tmax_geq_25_d100

Fishing Participation

Days

Summer_PET_d100 

Summer_PET_d200

Developed skiing Participation

Days

Total_ppt 

Spring_PET_d200

Undeveloped skiing Participation

Days

Tmax_winter_d200 

Tmax_winter_d200

Swimming Participation

Days

Tmax_summer_d200 

Tmax_geq_25_d200

Floating Participation

Days

Summer_PET_d200 

Spring_PET_d200

Recreation activity Model Climate variable
22 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Total days for each activity were estimated 

following a procedure similar to that for 

estimating participants. First, days of 

participation per participant were nonlinearly 

regressed on relevant explanatory variables 

including at least one climate variable. 

Parameter estimates from the respective 

negative binomial models then were combined 

with projected explanatory variables under 

A1B and associated climate model forecasts, 

at 10-year intervals, to create indexed per 

capita days of participation, which were 

combined with population projections for A1B 

to develop estimated per participant days 

indices. These indices then were applied to a 

beginning baseline estimate of participation 

days for each activity, based on weighted 

national averages calculated from the 2005 to 

2009 NSRE data, to yield projections of total 

adult activity days. As with the participant 

estimates, a 4-year average around 2008 was 

chosen to avoid any aberrations associated 

with a single year. The results of participation 

and days-of-participation models are shown in 

the series of tables that follow. In addition to 

results simulated under each climate scenario 

associated with A1B, an average across the 

climate scenarios is also reported. 

Developed Site Use

Visiting developed sites—Activities associated 

with this composite activity include family 

gathering, picnicking, and developed camping. 

Per capita participation for this activity is 

currently high and projected to remain relatively 

constant into the future, decreasing slightly on 

average, across climate scenarios (Table 6). 

The minor decrease in adult participation rate, 

coupled with population growth, suggests an 

increase in users of 27 to 35 percent by 2060, 

or about 24 million more per year than the 

current 80.5 million. 

Average annual days per developed site visitor 

are projected to decrease by 10 percent on 

average across climate scenarios, or just over 

1 day per participant per year. CSIRO and 

MIROC climate forecasts roughly doubled the 

decrease from the CGCM model (Table 6). 

Total days of developed use increase 12 to 27 

percent across the climate scenarios. Given 

the relatively small changes in average days of 

developed site visitation per participant across 

the climate scenarios, the key driver in the 

increase in total days for this activity is likely 

to be population growth. Across all climate 

scenarios, the average expected increase in 

annual days of developed site visitation is about 

17 percent or 160 million days for the region 

annually by 2060. 
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 23

Table 6—Projected developed site visit participation and use (family gathering, picnicking, developed camping) 

by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and 

related climate futures.

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.825 0.791 (4)b 0 (6) (6)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 80.5 104.2 30 35 27 27

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 11.69 10.58 (10) (5) (11) (12)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 943.3 1,106.2 17 27 13 12

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
24 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Visiting interpretive areas—Interpretive areas 

include nature centers, zoos, historic sites, 

and prehistoric sites. More than 67 million 

adults, or about 69 percent of all residents in 

the region, participated in at least one activity 

in this category annually from 2005 to 2009. 

The projections indicate participation rates are 

likely to be stable at about 9 percent across 

climate scenarios (Table 7). Climate effects 

are expected to result in small differences 

in participation rates, offset by consistently 

higher numbers of days per participant (up to 

half a day per year on average). As per capita 

participation is expected to rise 9 percent, 

the number of participants will likely exceed 

the rate of population growth. The higher 

growth in participation rate for this activity 

group compared to visiting developed sites has 

several possible causes—visiting developed 

sites is negatively related to age, which is 

expected to rise by 2060, and positively related 

to available Federal land per capita—that are 

less important in interpretive site visitation, 

as is climate change. Total annual days of 

interpretive site visits is projected to increase 

by two-thirds, on average, or by 343 million 

days per year by 2060.

Table 7—Projected interpretive site visit participation and use (visiting natural sites, prehistoric, or historic sites) 

by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and 

related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.686 0.747 9 9 9 9

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 67.0 98.5 47 47 48 47

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 7.69 8.70 13 8 14 17

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 516.0 858.5 66 59 68 72

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 25

Observing Nature

This category includes birding, both viewing 

and photographing; it also includes the more 

general activity aggregate called viewing, 

which consists of any activities that involve 

the viewing, photography, or study of natural 

settings, or the noncommercial gathering of 

plants or animals. From 2005 to 2009, an 

average of 38 percent of northern adults, or 

37 million people, participated annually in 

birding. In the more broadly defined viewing 

aggregate, which would include birding, nearly 

82 percent of the adult population, or about 

79 million people, participated annually.

Birding—Participation in birding is expected 

to remain stable over the next 50 years, with 

the participation rate declining by about 1.4 

percent to about 37 percent of northern adults. 

Coupling this decrease with the population 

growth expected under A1B would mean a 

regional increase in birders of 24 to 40 percent, 

depending on the climate scenario (Table 8). 

On average, the expected annual increase is 

30 percent, or about 11 million adults in 2060. 

The number of days per participant is expected 

to decrease uniformly (4 percent) across the 

three climate scenarios. Given that adult birders 

in the region averaged nearly 100 days per year 

Table 8—Projected birding participation and use (viewing or photographing birds) by adults in the Northern 

United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.382 0.368 (4)b 3 (7) (8)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 37.2 48.3 30 40 26 24

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 99.8 96.1 (4) (3) (4) (4)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 3,696 4,625 25 35 21 19

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
26 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

from 2005 to 2009, an annual decrease of 4 days 

would not have much of an effect on the annual 

totals, which should increase by 19 to 35 percent 

over the 50-year period. The largest increase, 

1,310 million days per year, would occur under 

CGM3.1, which is marginally wetter and cooler 

than the other two scenarios at the national level. 

Viewing—The regional adult participation 

rate in the broader viewing category will likely 

remain essentially unchanged over the next 

50 years, suggesting that viewing participants 

will increase at about the rate of population 

increase. By 2060, the total number of nature 

viewers per year is expected to increase by 

35 percent to about 107 million adults (Table 9). 

Annual average nature viewing days per 

participant will likely decrease across all 

scenarios by 8 to 10 percent, or about 2 weeks 

per year, resulting in one of the largest relative 

decreases in total days per participant across 

all activities (Table 9). The decrease in viewing 

days per participant appears to be driven by 

a number of factors, among them, projected 

increases in total population density and in 

minority populations, and a projected decrease 

in public land per capita in the region. Despite 

the predicted decrease in annual days per 

participant, total viewing days will likely 

increase, driven by the increase in the number 

of participants, by an average of about 3,104 

million days per year by 2060. 

Table 9—Projected nature viewing participation and use (viewing, photography, study, or nature gathering 

related to fauna, flora, or natural settings) by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under 

Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.815 0.813 0 3 (2)b (2)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 79.5 107.0 35 39 32 33

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 175.7 159.5 (9) (8) (10) (9)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 13,925 17,029 22 27 19 21

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 27

Backcountry Activities

Backcountry activities are most often pursued in 

undeveloped but accessible lands. The category 

includes these four activities, or activity composites: 

(1) challenge activities, (2) horseback riding, 

(3) hiking, and (4) visiting primitive areas. 

Challenge activities—Challenge activities, 

often associated with young and affluent adults, 

include caving, mountain biking, mountain 

climbing, and rock climbing. Nearly 10 percent 

of adults in the region currently engage in these 

activities, a rate expected to decrease by about 

10 percent in 50 years (Table 10). 

 

Population growth in the region will likely offset 

expected participation-rate decreases, leading 

to increases in the number of participants of 

16 to 27 percent across the climate scenarios. 

Participation is projected to grow by 22 percent 

on average, or by about 2 million adults per 

year through 2060. The number of days per 

participant will be almost unchanged across 

climate scenarios, remaining at less than 4 days 

per year among participants. Coupled with 

population growth rates, total days of challenge 

sport participation will likely increase 12 to 

27 percent annually by 2060. On average this 

increase would result in an additional 7.4 million 

days of activity per year.

Table 10—Projected challenge activity participation and use (mountain climbing, rock climbing, caving) by 

adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and 

related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.095 0.086 (10)b (6) (14) (9)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 9.4 11.4 22 27 16 22

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 3.89 3.82 (2) 0 (4) (2)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 37.7 45.1 20 27 12 21

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
28 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Horseback riding—Horseback riding on 

trails claimed 6 percent of the northern adult 

population annually as participants in 2008—

a percentage expected to increase to more than 

8 percent by 2060, with the biggest increases 

occurring under the warmer and drier climate 

scenarios predicted by CSIROMK3.5 and 

MIROC3.2 (Table 11). When population growth 

is included to derive the number of annual 

participants, the expected average increase 

across the three climate scenarios is 91 percent, 

or just about twice the 5.8 million 2008 

participants. Relative to previously discussed 

activities—such as visiting developed sites, 

nature viewing, and challenge sports—expected 

changes in climate do not appear to have a 

dampening effect on horseback-riding participation. 

The per capita number of days of participation 

would remain about constant over the projection 

period, dropping about a half day per year, or 

4 percent on average. However, factoring in 

population growth would lead to increases in 

the total days of horseback riding of 65 to 

100 percent by 2060, depending 

on the climate scenario, with the 

average increase expected to be 

about 61 million days per year.

Table 11—Projected equestrian participation and use (horseback riding on trails) by adults in the Northern 

United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.059 0.084 42 23 54 48

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 5.77 11.05 91 67 108 100

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 12.63 12.16 (4)b (1) (4) (7)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 72.3 133.0 84 65 100 87

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
Day hiking—Hiking is the most popular single 

backcountry activity with about a third of all 

northern adults, or about 32.4 million people, 

hiking in 2008. Among the three climate 

scenarios, hiking participation per capita is 

expected to remain about constant out to 2060 

(Table 12). Thus, with population growth, hikers 

in the region should increase by about a third 

in 2060. Hiking is the only activity in which 

Hispanics demonstrated a higher participation 

rate than Caucasians (Appendix). Annual days 

of hiking per participant are forecasted to 

decrease evenly across the climate scenarios, 

averaging 7 percent or about 

1.6 days per year. 

Thus, total annual days of hiking will likely 

increase less than population growth, but the 

result would nevertheless be an increase in hiking 

days of approximately 162 million days by 2060. 

Table 12—Projected day hiking participation and use by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, 

under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.327 0.319 (2)b 0 (5) (2)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 32.4 42.7 32 35 28 32

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 22.44 20.86 (7) (6) (9) (7)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 723.8 886.0 22 28 17 23

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.

29
30 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Visiting primitive areas—The final backcountry 

activity, an aggregate called visiting primitive 

areas, consists of backpacking, primitive 

camping, and visiting a designated or undesignated 

wilderness. This composite accounted for 

36.1 million regional participants in 2008, or 

about 37 percent of all adults. Annual per capita 

participation in this category is expected to 

decrease 10 to 34 percent over the next 50 years 

across the climate scenarios, an average 

8.5-percent drop (Table 13). Increased population 

density, declining Federal land area per capita, 

and increasing population diversity appear 

to be factors influencing the participation 

rate decrease (Appendix). However, overall 

participation is expected to increase by an 

average of 4 percent, to under 38 million adults 

by 2060, because population growth offsets the 

decrease in participation rates. 

Average annual days per participant visiting 

primitive areas is projected to decrease 

14 to 26 percent across climate scenarios 

(Table 13), to more than 2 days per year by 

2060. The decrease in participation rate and the 

drop in average participant days per year would 

lead to annual average decreases of 18 percent, 

from the current 415 million to 342 million days 

per year. However, the climate scenario showing 

the smallest change from the 2008 baseline, 

CGCM3.1, predicts a 5-percent annual increase 

in visitation days to less than or equal to 

436 million by 2060. 

Table 13—Projected primitive area visit participation and use (backpacking, primitive camping, wilderness) 

by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and 

related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.367 0.282 (23)b (10) (26) (34)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 36.1 37.4 4 22 0 (11)

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 11.42 9.01 (21) (14) (26) (24)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 415 342.0 (18) 5 (26) (32)

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 31

Motorized Activities

Three categories of motorized activities were 

considered: off-road driving, motorized water use, 

and snow use. 

Off-road driving— Participation in off-road 

driving averaged about 18 percent of the 

northern adult population, or about 17.3 million 

adults, annually from 2005 to 2009 (Table 14). 

Future participation rates are expected to 

decrease by 4 to 13 percent, depending on the 

climate scenarios. Among factors leading to the 

decrease are the expected increase in minority 

populations and general aging of the total 

population (Appendix). Despite these declining 

rates of growth in per capita participation, 

the number of participants in off-road driving 

will likely increase 18 to 29 percent under the 

climate scenarios to somewhere between 20 and 

22 million people in 2060, because the rate of 

population growth is expected to outstrip any 

decrease in per capita participation. 

Annual days of off-road driving per participant is 

projected to decrease 11 to 14 percent, or about 

2 days per year by 2060 (Table 14) with only 

small variations among climate scenarios. 

Table 14—Projected motorized off-road participation and use (off-road driving) by adults in the Northern United 

States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.176 0.162 (8)b (4) (8) (13)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 17.3 21.4 24 29 25 18

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 16.43 14.36 (13) (11) (14) (13)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 282.8 306.7 8 16 7 3

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
32 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

These decreases in participation 

rate and average annual days 

per participant imply that, under 

all scenarios, the total number of days 

of off-road driving will increase at a lower 

rate than respective population growth rates. 

Nevertheless, on average, the amount of total offroad driving days per year is expected to increase 

from 282.8 to more than 306 million days in 

the region.

Motorized snow use—Motorized snow use, or 

snowmobiling, is a geographically limited activity 

undertaken by more than 7 percent of northern 

residents in 2008. Per capita participation in 

snowmobiling is projected to decrease 58 to 

78 percent under all climate scenarios (Table 15). 

 Regional changes in ethnicity, 

 an aging population, declining 

Federal land per capita, and climate 

 appear to be driving factors. Total 

 snowmobiling participants are projected 

 to decrease from 7 million in 2008 to between 

2.1 and 3.9 million by 2060, depending on the 

climate scenario. Average annual days per 

participant would decrease by about 1 day per 

year on average. Coupled with the decrease 

in numbers of participants, this suggests a 

potential decrease in annual snowmobiling days 

of 52 to 74 percent by 2060. Averaged across the 

climate scenarios, the change implies a drop of 

annual snowmobiling days from 54.8 million in 

2008 to 20.3 million in 2060.

Table 15—Projected motorized snow activity participation and use (snowmobiling) by adults in the Northern 

United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.071 0.022 (69)b (58) (78) (69)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 7.0 3.0 (58) (44) (70) (59)

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 7.87 6.89 (12) (14) (11) (12)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 54.8 20.3 (63) (52) (74) (64)

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
Motorized water use—Motorized water activities 

involve motor boats, water skis, or personal 

watercraft. This combination of related activities 

had the highest per capita participation rate 

among motorized outdoor activities at 27 percent, 

or about 26.1 million adult participants, in 2008 

(Table 16). Per capita participation is expected 

to grow by 20 to 45 percent over the next 

five decades to an average of 36 percent of all 

adults in the region. The highest growth rate 

is expected under the climate scenarios that 

are characterized by relatively higher average 

temperatures and less average rainfall. Overall, 

the numbers of adult participants in motorized 

water activities will likely increase faster than 

the population under all climate scenarios, for 

a total of 42 to 51 million 

participants in 2060. 

Motorized water use participant days totaled 

about 378.8 million in 2008, or slightly less than 

15 days annually per participant (Table 16). 

Days per participant are expected to increase 9 

percent on average, or about 1.4 days per year 

by 2060. Combining population growth with 

increasing participation and annual days per 

participant would result in a 72- to 118-percent 

increase by 2060, meaning that, on average, 

the number of motorized water use days would 

double by 2060.

Table 16—Projected motorized water participation and use (motor boating, waterskiing, using personal 

watercraft) by adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario 

A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.268 0.361 35 20 45 39

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 26.1 47.3 82 61 96 88

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 14.65 16.01 9 6 12 10

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 378.8 752.8 99 72 118 106

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.
Hunting and Fishing

The traditional consumptive wildlife 

pursuits of hunting and fishing remain popular 

outdoor activities for northern adults, with 

about 11.3 million hunting and 28.7 million 

fishing participants in 2008. However, on a per 

capita basis, these pursuits have shown some 

decrease from past decades (Cordell 2012). 

Hunting—Hunting is the legal pursuit of big game, 

small game, or migratory birds (as identified 

by an NSRE hunting screener question). The 

northern adult hunting participation rate, nearly 

12 percent in 2008, is projected to decrease by 

26 to 47 percent across climate scenarios by 

2060 (Table 17)—with the pattern being that 

the bigger the change in climate conditions, 

the bigger the effect on hunting participation. 

The average decrease is projected to be 4 to 5 

percentage points, meaning that about 7 percent 

of the adults will be hunting in 2060. The factors 

that appear to be associated with the drop in 

hunting participation are increased education 

levels, increased population density, diminishing 

availability of public land per capita, and 

increased minority populations (Appendix). 

Partly offset by population growth, the projected 

number of hunting participants is expected to 

drop on average across climate alternatives by 

16 percent to about 9.5 million hunters by 2060. 

Across all the climate scenarios, average annual 

days in the field per hunter is projected to 

decrease 13 to 20 percent, or a little more than 

3 days per hunter per year (Table 17). Climate 

appears to have less effect on the average 

annual days a hunter spends in the field than 

on whether one participates in hunting. Total 

annual adult hunting days, estimated at about 

209.6 million in 2008, is expected to decrease 

by an average of about 30 percent by 2060 to 

just below 146 million days per year. 

Fishing—Fishing participation—which includes 

warmwater and coldwater fishing, saltwater 

fishing, and anadromous fishing—can be either 

consumptive or catch-and-release. Unlike 

hunting, the adult participation rate for fishing 

is expected to increase over the next five 

decades. Currently, 29.6 percent of northern 

adults claim to fish. This rate is expected to 

increase by 3 to 27 percent by 2060 (Table 18). 

On average, the warmer and drier climate 

change scenarios, CSIROMK3.5 and MIROC3.2, 

would result in larger increases in the participation 

rate than CGCM3.1. Coupled with population 

growth, the number of fishing participants is 

projected to rise by 39 to 71 percent by 2060. 

Averaged across climate scenarios, this implies 

an increase in annual anglers to about 45 million 

at the end of the projection period.

34
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 35

Table 17—Projected hunting participation and use (small game, big game, migratory bird, other) by adults in the 

Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.117 0.073 (38)b (26) (41) (47)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 11.3 9.5 (16) 0 (20) (28)

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 18.84 15.53 (18) (13) (20) (19)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 209.6 145.9 (30) (12) (36) (42)

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.

Table 18—Projected fishing participation and use (cold water, warm water, saltwater, anadromous) by adults in the 

Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.296 0.347 17 3 27 22

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 28.7 45.4 58 39 71 65

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 18.14 20.28 12 0 19 16

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 515.7 919.3 78 39 104 91

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.
36 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Fishing days per participant are forecasted to 

increase up to 19 percent by 2060, or by about 

2 days per year on average (Table 18). Overall, 

annual fishing days are expected to increase 

across all climate scenarios by 39 to 104 percent 

during the next five decades, with the warmer 

and drier scenarios seeing the largest increases. 

On average, this would mean an increase in 

annual fishing days for the region of 78 percent, 

or about 403.6 million days.

Non-motorized Winter Activities

Non-motorized winter activities include developed 

skiing (downhill skiing and snowboarding) 

and undeveloped skiing (cross-country skiing 

and snowshoeing). 

Developed skiing—Developed skiing claimed 

an adult participation rate of 11.6 percent, about 

11.6 million participants, annually from 2005 

through 2009. Across the three climate scenarios, 

the participation rate for developed skiing is 

expected to increase by 25 to 32 percent or about 

29 percent on average to about 15 percent of the 

adult population (Table 19). As with other incomedependent activities, the growth in household 

income associated with A1B would be a major 

driving factor in developed skiing participation 

rates, along with total precipitation, and education 

level increases (Appendix). The increases in 

participation rate, combined with population 

growth, suggest that the number of developed 

skiing participants could grow by about 8.5 million 

participants to over 20 million per year by 2060. 

Table 19—Projected developed skiing participation and use (downhill skiing, snowboarding) by adults in the 

Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.116 0.149 29 32 25 29

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 11.6 20.1 74 78 69 75

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 6.99 4.75 (32)b (22) (37) (37)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 81.3 96.3 18 39 6 9

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 37

Alternatively, days of developed skiing per 

participant are projected to decrease by an 

average of 32 percent, or by about 2 days per 

participant annually, by 2060. This decrease is 

somewhat offset by population growth and the 

increase in number of participants, resulting in 

increased total skiing days annually across all 

three climate scenarios (Table 19). For climate 

scenario CGCM3.1, in which average annual 

temperature rises the least and average annual 

precipitation increases the most, the increase in 

total skiing days is 39 percent. For the equally 

likely warmer dryer scenarios, CSIROMK3.5 

and MIROC3.2, the increases in total annual 

days are less than 10 percent, despite the large 

expected increases in participants.

Undeveloped skiing—Undeveloped skiing often 

is pursued locally and does not require extensive 

recreation-site facilities. About 4.8 percent of 

northern adults, or 4.8 million people, engaged 

in undeveloped skiing in 2008. By 2060, this 

participation rate is projected to drop 27 to 

41 percent, depending on the climate scenario 

(Table 20) with the warmer and drier MIROC3.2 

showing the largest decrease. Other contributing 

factors include changing demographics in the 

region and declining public land per capita. 

Population growth would slightly offset the large 

decrease in participation rates, although on 

average the total number of participants in the 

region is projected to decrease by 11 percent, 

or about 0.6 million annually, by 2060. 

Table 20—Projected undeveloped skiing (cross-country skiing, snowshoeing) by adults in the Northern United 

States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.048 0.032 (34)b (35) (27) (41)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 4.8 4.2 (11) (12) (2) (21)

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 6.66 6.09 (9) (9) (9) (8)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 32.1 26.0 (19) (19) (10) (27)

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
Annual days per skier drop less than participation 

over the time period, less than 1 day per year, 

with little variation among climate scenarios. 

Thus, the predicted average 19-percent drop 

in undeveloped skiing days annually by 2060 

appears to be primarily an artifact of the 

decreasing number of participants (Table 20). 

Overall, annual days of undeveloped skiing in 

the region are expected to decrease from 

32.1 million to about 26 million by 2060.

Non-motorized Water Activities 

Non-motorized water activities consist of swimming 

and various forms of non-motorized boating. 

Swimming—Swimming includes various related 

activities such as snorkeling, surfing, diving, and 

visiting beaches or watersides. It is the fourth 

most popular outdoor activity in the North, with 

a 63.3-percent adult participation rate and about 

62 million adult participants annually (Table 21). 

Table 21—Projected swimming participation and use (family gathering, picnicking, developed camping) by 

adults in the Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and 

related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.633 0.633 0 9 (4)b (4)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 61.7 83.3 35 47 29 29

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 22.24 21.13 (5) 2 (9) (8)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 1,376.2 1,771.8 29 51 17 18

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.

38
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 39

On average, this participation rate is expected 

to remain constant over the projection period. 

Thus, the number of swimmers can be expected 

to increase by the same rate as the regional 

population. This would mean an increase of 

17 to 29 million participants by 2060. Days per 

participant are projected to decrease slightly, 

5 percent on average, under A1B and the three 

climate scenarios. Nevertheless, because of the 

high societal participation rate and the large 

number of days of annual engagement, swimmingrelated activities will likely increase 

17 to 51 percent or by between 

238 and 696 million days 

per year by 2060. 

Floating—The adult participation rate for this 

non-motorized boating activity—including canoeing, 

kayaking, tubing, sailing, and whitewater (or other) 

rafting—averaged about 18.7 percent, or about 

18.2 million participants, annually in the North 

from 2005 to 2009. Across the climate scenarios 

associated with A1B, the participation rate is 

expected to decrease 3 to 24 percent by 2060, with 

the warmer drier scenarios differing from CGCM3.1 

by more than 20-percent (Table 22). On average, the 

16 percent decrease in participation rate, coupled 

with population growth, would mean an 

 increase in adult participants 

 of about 14 percent, 

 or 2.5 million people.

Table 22—Projected floating participation and use (canoeing, tubing, kayaking, rafting, sailing) by adults in the 

Northern United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Year

RPA

Scenario 2008

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060 Climate 

Averagea

2060

CGCM3.1

2060

CSIRO-MK3.5

2060

MIROC3.2

Per capita participation Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 0.187 0.157 (16)b (3) (24) (21)

Adult participants (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 18.2 20.7 14 31 3 6

Days per participant Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 6.82 5.46 (20) (8) (25) (27)

Total days (millions) Percent increase (decrease) from 2008

A1B 124.0 114.2 (8) 21 (23) (22)

a

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

b

Parentheses denotes decrease.
Annual days per participant, about 7 in 2008, are 

expected to decrease across all climate scenarios 

by 8 to 27 percent, with the drier and warmer 

climate forecasts roughly tripling the decrease 

in CGCM3.1. On average, the decrease would 

be about 20 percent or 1.4 days per participant 

annually in 2060. Total days of participation will 

likely increase by 21 percent under CGCM3.1, 

but decrease by 23 percent under CSIROMK3.5 

and 22 percent under MIROC3.2. Thus, depending 

on the climate changes, annual total days of 

participation, which totaled 124 million in 2008, 

could be as low as 95 million or as high as 

150 million, although on average a decrease 

of about 10 million participant days per year 

is expected.

Key Findings

Outdoor recreation will remain important in the 

North over the next five decades. The number of 

participants in 14 of the 17 outdoor recreation 

activities, or activity aggregates, examined for 

this report is projected to increase (Table 23). 

For a number of activities, the per capita 

participation rate is expected to decrease, but, 

expected population growth under the A1B 

simulation (high economic growth and moderate 

population growth) would be large enough to 

ensure that only a few—hunting, snowmobiling, 

and undeveloped skiing—would actually experience 

a decrease in participants over the next five 

decades. Of these, snowmobiling and undeveloped 

skiing could experience large decreases relative 

to current participant numbers. 

In general, participation intensity, or total 

days of participation, will likely mirror number 

of participants. Twelve of 17 activities are 

expected to experience an increase in annual 

participation days in 2060 compared to 2008 

(Table 24). Under A1B, and averaging across 

the three climate scenarios, non-motorized 

boating, visiting primitive areas, hunting, 

snowmobiling, and undeveloped skiing are all 

likely to experience decreases in total days of 

participation. Of these, the two winter activities 

would see the biggest proportional drops, but 

hunting and visiting primitive areas would 

experience much larger absolute decreases. 

More specific discussions of participant 

numbers, days of participation, and the factors 

responsible follow. 

40
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 41

Table 23—Changes in total outdoor recreation participation across 17 activities by adults in the Northern 

United States, 2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Activity 2008 Participants

2060 Participant 

Rangea

2060 Participant 

Rangea

2060 Average 

Participant Changeb

(millions) (millions) (percent) (millions)

Developed site use

Visiting developed sites 

(family gathering, picnicking, 

developed camping)

80.5 102 - 109 27 - 35 24

Visiting interpretive sites 

(nature centers, prehistoric sites, 

historic sites, other)

67.0 98 - 99 47 - 48 32

Observing nature

Birding 

(viewing or photographing)

37.2 46 - 52 24 - 40 11

Nature viewingc

 (viewing or 

photographing birds, other 

wildlife, natural scenery, 

gathering, other)

79.5 105 - 111 32 - 39 28

Backcountry activities

Challenge (mountain climbing, 

rock climbing, caving)

9.4 11 - 12 16 - 27 2

Equestrian 

(horseback riding on trails)

5.8 10 - 12 67 - 108 5

Day hiking 32.4 41 - 44 28 - 35 10

Primitive area use (visiting 

wilderness, primitive camping, 

backpacking)

36.1 32 - 44 (11)d

 - 22 1

Motorized activities

Off-road driving 17.3 20 - 22 18 - 29 7

Motorized snow (snowmobiling) 7.0 2.1 - 4 (70) - (44) (4)

Motorized water 

(motor boating, water skiing, 

personal watercraft use)

26.1 42 - 51 61 - 96 21

Hunting and fishing

Hunting (all types of legal 

hunting)

11.3 8 - 11 (28) - 0 (2)

Fishing (warm water, cold water, 

saltwater, anadromous)

28.7 40 - 49 39 - 71 17
42 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Table 23 continued 

Activity 2008 Participants

2060 Participant 

Rangea

2060 Participant 

Rangea

2060 Average 

Participant Changeb

(millions) (millions) (percent) (millions)

Non-motorized Winter

Developed skiing (downhill 

skiing, snowboarding)

11.6 19 - 21 69 - 78 9

Undeveloped skiing (crosscountry skiing, snowshoeing)4.8 3.8 - 4.7 (21) - (2) (0.6)

Non-motorized Water

Swimming (screener for various 

swimming and related activities)

61.7 80 - 91 29 - 47 22

Floating (canoeing, kayaking, 

rafting, sailing)

18.2 19 - 24 3 - 31 3

a

Participant range for RPA A1B and climate alternatives (CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, MIROC3.2).

b

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

c

Including birding.

d

Parentheses denotes decrease or negative value.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 43

Table 24—Changes in total outdoor recreation days across 17 activities by adults in the Northern United States, 

2008 to 2060, under Resources Planning Act (RPA) scenario A1B and related climate futures. 

Activity 2008 Days

2060 Days 

Rangea

2060 Days 

Rangea

2060 Average 

Days Changeb

(millions) (millions) (percent) (millions)

Developed site use

Visiting developed sites 

(family gathering, picnicking, 

developed camping)

943 1,054 - 1,201 12 - 27 163

Visiting interpretive sites 

(nature centers, prehistoric sites, 

historic sites, other)

516 820 - 887 59 - 72 343

Observing nature

Birding 

(viewing or photographing)

3,696 4,413 - 5,006 19 - 35 929

Nature viewingc

 (viewing or 

photographing birds, other 

wildlife, natural scenery, 

gathering, other)

13,925 16,548 - 17,730 19 - 27 3,104

Backcountry activities

Challenge (mountain climbing, 

rock climbing, caving)

37.7 42 - 48 12 - 27 7

Equestrian 

(horseback riding on trails)

72.3 119 - 144 65 - 100 61

Day hiking 723.8 846 - 923 17 - 28 162

Primitive area use (visiting 

wilderness, primitive camping, 

backpacking)

415 282 - 435 (32)d

 - 5 (73)

Motorized activities

Off-road driving 282.8 291 - 327 3 - 16 24

Motorized snow (snowmobiling) 54.8 15 - 26 (74) - (52) (35)

Motorized water 

(motor boating, water skiing, 

personal watercraft use)

378.8 651 - 827 72 - 118 374

Hunting and fishing

Hunting 

(all types of legal hunting)

209.6 121 - 184 (42) - (12) (64)
44 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Table 24 continued 

Activity 2008 Days

2060 Days 

Rangea

2060 Days 

Rangea

2060 Average 

Days Changeb

(millions) (millions) (percent) (millions)

Fishing (warm water, cold water, 

saltwater, anadromous)

515.7 719 - 1,052 39 - 104 404

Non-motorized Winter

Developed skiing (downhill 

skiing, snowboarding)

81.3 86 - 113 6 - 39 15

Undeveloped skiing (crosscountry skiing, snowshoeing)32.1 23 - 29 (27) - (10) (6)

Non-motorized Water

Swimming (screener for various 

swimming and related activities)

1,376.2 1,614 - 2,072 17 - 51 396

Floating (canoeing, kayaking, 

rafting, sailing)

124 96 - 150 (23) - 21 (10)

a

Days range for RPA A1B and climate alternatives (CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, MIROC3.2).

b

Result of average across CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, and MIROC3.2.

c

Including birding.

d

Parentheses denotes decrease or negative value.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 45

Per capita participation— In the next 50 years, 

under A1B and related climate scenarios for 

the North, the outdoor recreation activities 

projected for the most growth in per capita 

participation (Fig. 7) are developed skiing 

(25 to 32 percent), horseback riding (23 to 54 

percent), fishing (3 to 27 percent), motorized 

water use (20 to 45 percent), and visiting 

interpretive areas (9 percent). 

A number of activities are projected to 

experience decreases in adult participation 

rates. The five activities with the biggest 

participation rate decreases (Fig. 8) are floating 

(3 to 24 percent), hunting (26 to 47 percent), 

snowmobiling (58 to 78 percent), primitive-area 

visiting (10 to 34 percent), and undeveloped 

skiing (27 to 41 percent). 

Figure 7

Recreation activities with the highest 

projected growth in participation rate, 2008 to 

2060, in the Northern United States under a 

future of high economic growth and moderate 

population growth (A1B) and an average of 

climate scenarios predicted by three general 

circulation models: CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, 

and MIROC3.2. (source: 2010 Resources 

Planning Act assessment).

Figure 8

Recreation activities with the lowest projected 

growth in participation rate, 2008 to 2060, 

in the Northern United States under a future 

of high economic growth and moderate 

population growth (A1B) and an average of 

climate scenarios predicted by three general 

circulation models: CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, 

and MIROC3.2. (source: 2010 Resources 

Planning Act assessment).

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Par

0

ticipation rate (percent of adults)

2008

2060

Undeveloped skiing

Motorized snow use 

(snowmobiling)

Hunting

Floating (canoeing,

kayaking, rafting,

sailing)

Primitive area use

Equestrian

Developed

skiing

Motorized

 water use

Fishing

Interpretive

site use

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

Par

0

ticipation rate (percent of adults)

2008

2060
46 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Change in participation rates for the remaining 

activities studied in this report will likely be 

marginal, vacillating around zero. Generally, 

activities with currently low per capita rates 

of participation, such as downhill skiing and 

horseback riding, have considerable room for 

growth (decline), but activities with already high 

participation rates, such as developed site use, 

nature viewing, and swimming, have less room 

for growth (decline). Thus, the larger percentage 

changes in predicted participation rates are 

often for the currently less popular activities. 

Participant numbers—Participant numbers 

follow the predicted trends of participation rates 

as they are simply the product of participation 

rate and population. Across climate scenarios 

(Table 23), the highest growth rates for participant 

numbers are expected for developed skiing 

(69 to 78 percent), horseback riding (67 to 108 

percent), fishing (39 to 71 percent), motorized 

water use (61 to 96 percent), and visiting 

interpretive areas (47 to 48 percent). 

A number of activities will likely show less growth 

and experience decreases in adult participation 

rates. The five activities that are expected to 

experience the least growth in participant numbers 

are non-motorized boating (3 to 31 percent 

increase), hunting (0 percent growth to 28 percent 

decrease), snowmobiling (44 to 70 percent 

decrease), primitive-area visiting (22 percent 

growth to 11 percent decrease), and undeveloped 

skiing (2 to 21 percent decrease). 

Although growth rates for participant numbers 

are important, a potentially more important 

measure for natural resource managers is 

change in absolute numbers of participants. 

Activities with already high participation rates 

often do not demonstrate large percentage 

changes in participant numbers. However, 

smaller percentage changes in already highly 

popular activities can mean quite large changes 

in the absolute number of adult participants.

The activities that are expected to show the 

biggest average increases from 2008 to 2060 in 

participants (Table 23) are visiting developed 

sites (24 million), nature viewing (28 million), 

interpretive-area visiting (32 million), swimming 

(22 million), motorized water use (21 million) 

and fishing (17 million). These are among 

the most popular activities examined in this 

report. Activities expected to have the smallest 

participant increases across climate scenarios 

on average, some with participant number 

decreases, include challenge activities (2 million 

increase), floating (3 million increase), hunting 

(2 million decrease), primitive area use (1 million 

increase), snowmobiling (4 million decrease), 

and undeveloped skiing (slightly more than 

0.5 million decrease).
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 47

Participant days per year—As described in eq. 3, 

average activity days per year per participant 

are used in conjunction with participation rate 

and population to determine total activity days 

per year. Yearly days per participant are projected 

to decrease for most outdoor recreation activities 

from 2008 to 2060. Three activities, visiting 

interpretive sites, motorized boating, and fishing 

are expected to experience increases across 

the climate scenarios, with average annual days 

per participant climbing to between 8 and 9 days 

for visiting interpretive sites and climbing to 

around 16 days for motorized boating, and to 20 

days on average for fishing. Challenge activities 

will likely maintain about the same number of 

annual days per participant in 2060 as in 2008. 

All other 

activities are 

expected to experience a 

decrease in days per participant per 

year, with the largest decreases in developed 

skiing (32 percent), visiting primitive areas 

(21 percent), and floating (20 percent). For nature 

viewing, with a 2008 average of about 176 days 

per year, a 9 percent decrease by 2060 could 

translate into an average of 16 fewer activity days 

per year. However, for activities where participants 

engage less often, the decreases would be less, 

less than 1 day per year for snowmobiling and 

approximately 2 days per year for hunting. For 

the remaining activities, the changes, although 

negative, are expected to be relatively minor.
48 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Total activity days per year—Total days are the 

product of population, participation rate, and 

days per participant. The five fastest growing 

outdoor activities, in total days from 2008 to 

2060 (Table 24 and Fig. 9), are predicted to be 

horseback riding (65 to 100 percent), fishing 

(39 to 104 percent), interpretive-area visiting 

(59 to 72 percent), motorized water use (72 to 

118 percent), and swimming (17 to 51 percent). 

Alternatively, the five slowest growing activities 

(Fig. 10) are predicted to be off-road driving 

(3 to 16 percent increase), primitive area use 

(5 percent increase to 32 percent decrease), 

undeveloped skiing (10 to 27 percent decrease), 

hunting (12 to 42 percent decrease), and 

snowmobiling (52 to 74 percent decrease).

Higher growth rates do not necessarily imply 

larger absolute growth. Activities that are currently 

popular may have slower rates of growth in total 

days than less popular alternatives, yet their 

increase in total days may greatly exceed those for 

less popular but faster growing activities. Averaged 

over all climate scenarios for A1B, the five activities 

for which total days would increase the most over 

the next 50 years (Table 24) are nature viewing 

(3,104 million days), birding (929 million days), 

fishing (404 million days), swimming (396 million 

days) motorized water use (374 million days), and 

visiting interpretive sites (343 million). Day hiking 

(162 million days) and visiting developed sites 

(163 million days) are the only other activities for 

which days per year are expected to increase by 

more than 100 million per year by 2060.

Figure 9

Recreation activities with the highest projected 

growth in total consumption, 2008 to 2060, 

in the Northern United States under a future 

of high economic growth and moderate 

population growth (A1B) and an average of 

climate scenarios predicted by three general 

circulation models: CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, 

and MIROC3.2. (source: 2010 Resources 

Planning Act assessment). 

Equestrian

Motorized

water use

Fishing

Interpretive

site use

Swimming

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0 Consumption (million days per year)

2008

2060
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 49

Figure 10

Recreation activities with the lowest projected 

growth in total consumption, 2008 to 2060, 

in the Northern United States under a future 

of high economic growth and moderate 

population growth (A1B) and an average of 

climate scenarios predicted by three general 

circulation models: CGCM3.1, CSIROMK3.5, 

and MIROC3.2. (source: 2010 Resources 

Planning Act assessment).

Alternatively, five activities are projected to 

decrease in total activity days per year by 2060 

when averaged across all climate scenarios 

for A1B (Table 24): floating (10 million days), 

hunting (64 million days), primitive area use 

(73 million days), snowmobiling (35 million 

days), and undeveloped skiing (6 million days). 

These activities are typically space intensive 

and generally require investments in equipment 

and training. Moreover, the two winter activities 

require some level of snow cover.

Climate scenarios—Participant numbers and 

days of participation were projected for A1B 

with associated climate scenarios (Fig. 6). 

Details about climate effects on recreation 

participation and use can be observed in 

Tables 6 to 22. No specific probabilities were 

assigned to any of the three climate scenarios 

associated with A1B (Joyce et al., in press).

However, the general effects of climate change 

on each of the 17 outdoor recreation activities 

examined in this report can be inferred by 

comparing the percent increases or decreases in 

Tables 6 to 22. For most activities, the scenarios 

that are warmer and drier on average over the 

next five decades (CISROMK3.5 and MIROC3.2) 

predict lower participation rates, with the largest 

effects predicted for hunting, snowmobiling, and 

undeveloped skiing. Alternatively, activities such 

as horseback riding, motorized water use, and 

fishing would likely experience relatively higher 

participation rates under the warmer and drier 

climate scenarios. For other activities—like 

visiting interpretive sites, nature viewing, and 

developed skiing—differences across climate 

scenarios would be marginal. The general effects 

of climate change on projections of total days can 

be similarly observed in the percent increases 

or decreases in Tables 6 to 22. The pattern is 

generally the same as with participation.

Undeveloped 

Skiing

Motorized snow use 

(snowmobiling)

Hunting

Off-road driving

Primitive area use

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

C

0

onsumption (million days per year)

2008

2060
50 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

Other Factors

Examination of model results and odds ratio 

estimates in the Appendix reveals findings similar 

to previous research into outdoor recreation 

participation behavior. First, men are more 

apt than women to participate in backcountry 

activities, hunting, fishing, motorized activities, 

snowmobiling, and floating; and women are 

more likely to participate in nature viewing, 

swimming, horseback riding, and visiting 

interpretive sites. 

Ethnicity appears highly associated with 

participation but it is less a factor on the annual 

days of participation once an individual has 

chosen to participate. Minorities, including 

African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and 

Asian Americans, are almost always less likely 

than Caucasians to participate in the activities 

examined in this report. Respondents claiming 

Native American, Non-Hispanic identity are 

often more likely than Caucasians to participate 

in the remote activities, such as hunting, 

fishing, off-road driving, snowmobiling, hiking, 

horseback riding, and nature viewing. These 

results are similar to previous 

studies relating ethnicity 

to recreation participation. 

A notable exception is day 

hiking; controlling for other 

socioeconomic and supply 

factors, participation is more 

likely for Hispanic Americans 

than Caucasians.

Education beyond high school generally resulted 

in higher participation rates for most activities, 

but not for all. For example, the higher the 

education level, the higher the likelihood of 

participation in birding, non-motorized winter 

activities, backcountry activities, and nature 

viewing. However, for fishing and hunting, 

off-road driving, and snowmobiling, having an 

education beyond high school is associated with 

a lowered probability of participation.

Income is positively associated with participation 

and use across all activities. For some activities—

such as birding, hiking, and hunting—the effect 

was small, but was large for developed skiing 

and motorized water use. An important aspect 

of income growth that was not addressed in 

our analysis for this report should also be 

mentioned. The RPA assessment variables used 

in this study were limited to aggregate income 

growth without regard to changing income 

distribution over the simulation period. This 

omission is potentially serious and may overlook 

the possibility of outdoor recreation access 

becoming more partitioned by income class.

Relevant land and water availability per 

capita generally relate positively to activity 

participation. Hence, decreases in overall forest 

and rangeland per capita, Federal land per 

capita, and National Wilderness Preservation 

System lands per capita produce decreases in 

spatially intensive activities, such as horseback 

riding, hunting, motorized off-road driving, 

visiting primitive areas, and nature viewing. 
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 51

Similarly, participation in water-based activities, 

such as swimming, motorized water use, and 

non-motorized water use, is positively related to 

the per capita availability of water area. Fishing 

participation is positively influenced by both 

water area and forest and rangeland availability. 

A seemingly counterintuitive result occurs with 

the variable indicating whether the respondent 

lives in a coastal community: participation 

in fishing, hunting, and nature viewing are 

negatively related to residence in a coastal 

county, a result that might be driven by the urban 

dominance of the northern coastal population.

Limitations in Model Results

The model results and projections in this chapter 

do not account for factors outside the range of 

available data such as new technology, changes 

in relative costs, changing site congestion 

conditions, new infrastructure, acculturation, 

generational trends, and changes in tastes 

and preferences. Hence, for an activity like 

developed skiing, projections of relatively 

large participant increases could be dampened 

significantly by declining quality or potentially 

increased access price that would result from 

overcrowding combined with declining carrying 

capacity on areas experiencing climate-induced 

spatial and temporal limitations. Moreover, 

the effects of climate on fish and game species 

were not developed fully enough to include as 

feedbacks into our behavioral models.

Some other caveats:

•	 Despite having up to a decade of data for 

model development, our dataset was not 

large enough for establishment of any 

meaningful or statistically significant timevarying parametric relationships. Thus, the 

participation and days models were static, 

a substantial limitation when projecting 

demand over such long time intervals. 

•	 Simulated projections were limited by the 

quality of the projected exogenous variables. 

•	 The sample of respondents was limited 

to adults (16 years and older); thus, the 

effects of recreation demand by youth were 

omitted. For activities that are traditionally 

adult in nature—such as challenge sports, 

visiting primitive areas, and hunting—

omitting children is likely not a serious 

omission. However, for visiting developed 

sites, swimming, fishing, visiting interpretive 

areas, and other family-oriented activities, 

the results presented herein could be biased 

somewhat downward relative to overall use. 

•	 By performing the analyses at the regional 

level, we may have overlooked important 

subregional changes and resulting implications. 

For example, visiting a primitive or wilderness 

area or day hiking may have a different 

meaning for a rural resident than an urbanite. 
Conclusions

Under the demographic, land use, and climate 

conditions that we considered for this report, 

recreation participant numbers and days in the 

field will likely grow for most activities over 

the next 50 years. Thus, the general outlook for 

outdoor recreation resources in the North is a 

per capita reduction in opportunities and access. 

Assuming that the public land base for outdoor 

recreation remains stable and the privately 

owned land base available for recreation 

decreases, an increasing population would 

result in decreasing opportunities for recreation 

per person across most of the region. Although 

many other factors are involved in recreation 

supply, recreation resources (both natural and 

constructed) likely will become less “available” 

as more people compete to use them.

On privately owned land, increased competition 

for recreational resources resulting from increased 

demand relative to supply could mean rising 

access prices. On public lands, where access 

fees cannot be adjusted easily to market or 

quasi-market conditions, increased congestion 

and possible decreases in the quality of the 

outdoor recreation experience are likely to 

present important challenges to management.

A major challenge for natural resource managers 

and planners will be to ensure that recreation 

opportunities remain viable and that they grow 

along with the population. This challenge will 

probably have to be met through creative and 

efficient management of site attribute inputs and 

plans, rather than through any major expansions 

or additions to the natural resource base. 

Trends toward more flexible work scheduling 

and telecommuting may allow recreationists 

to allocate their leisure time more evenly 

across the seasons and through the week, thus 

facilitating less concentrated peak demands. As 

well, entrepreneurs and managers may identify 

opportunities for more efficiently using resources 

by expanding seasonal opportunities, for example 

developing mountain biking venues at ski areas.1

Conversely, such technological innovations as 

global positioning system units and inexpensive 

plastic kayaks would allow people to find and 

get to places more easily and quickly, perhaps 

leading to overuse pressures not previously 

considered a threat. 

D.J. Mansius, director, Forest Policy & Management, Maine Forest Service, 

Dept. of Conservation. Personal communication. August 17, 2012.

1
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 53

Overall, a future in which the infrastructure 

supporting the region’s outdoor recreation 

opportunities will not be severely tested is hard 

to envision. For activities like improved-facility 

use and day hiking, fewer acres or trail miles 

per participant could begin to strain existing 

infrastructure as biological and social carrying 

capacities are exceeded. Some activities may 

not require expansive contiguous areas for 

quality experiences; examples are birding, 

which is often “edge dependent,” and hiking, 

which occurs along linear corridors. However, 

activities typically considered space intensive—

horseback riding on trails, motorized water 

use, fishing, and off-road driving—are likely to 

actually “feel” much more congested given the 

nature of the activity. Alternatively, activities 

like hunting and primitive area use could 

feel considerably less congested because of 

projected decreases in annual user days.

Measures of use per acre or other units of 

infrastructure are not comparable across 

recreation activities, and some may actually 

have a social component—with more congestion 

yielding increased user utility—but only up to a 

point. For activities that may be near carrying 

capacity from a recreation user perspective, or 

infrastructure carrying capacity, large increases 

in use per acre could be a concern, both for the 

land and for the user. Increased pressure can be 

expected on fishery resources, water quantity, 

and water quality in areas used for motor 

boating and at interpretive areas. 

Because general forest area recreation usage—

including hunting, off-road driving, fishing, and 

horseback riding on trails—generally require 

more space per user for high quality (and safe) 

experiences, an increase in use density would 

undoubtedly be of concern to national forest 

managers. For example, conflicts arising from 

congestion may increase, not only within an 

activity (such as off-road drivers running into 

each other figuratively and literally) but also 

across activities (such as off-road drivers 

spooking horses and scaring away game sought 

by hunters). Managers of general forest areas 

may have to choose among potentially unpopular 

access regulation schemes to mitigate conflicts. 

They may also need to consider sectioning 

general forest areas into special use areas for 

specific activities—such as off-road driving, 

horseback riding on trails, and hunting—to 

reduce cross-activity congestion conflicts. 

Needless to say, the increased congestion can 

only increase the impacts of recreation on the 

forest environment. 

Choices in outdoor recreation activities have 

changed over time in response to changing 

tastes and preferences, demographics, 

technological innovations, economic conditions, 

and changing recreational opportunities. 

Overall, the number of nature-based outdoor 

recreation participants has increased since the 

last RPA assessment, continuing a long-term 

trend. At the same time, recreation visitation to 

State parks and Federal lands has apparently 

not increased at similar rates, indicating that 

recreationists are also using other resources. 
54 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.

The change in recreation preferences at least 

partly reflects changing demographics in the 

U.S. public. As the northern population ages and 

becomes more racially and ethnically diverse, 

no one can predict with certainty how future 

recreation demand and supply will adjust. Based 

on the available data, we nevertheless project 

future growth for most recreation activities. 

Future demand, of course, can be expected to 

change as relative costs, competition for access, 

and other scarcity factors change and affect 

choices for recreation activities, times, 

and locations. 

Climate can affect willingness to participate 

in recreation activities as well as recreation 

resource availability and quality. The climate 

variables that we used in the recreation 

models were limited to those from the RPA 

assessment or were derivatives of those basic 

variables. Generally, these variables were 

presumed to affect willingness to participate 

and frequency of participation directly. 

However, even without existing data, climate 

change might be expected to affect resource 

availability, directly and indirectly. For 

example, increasing temperatures will likely 

affect the distribution of plant and animal 

species fundamental to maintaining fish and 

game populations. Moreover, changes in 

precipitation may influence local snow cover 

and thus affect seasonal availability for such 

activities as snowmobiling and undeveloped 

skiing. Walls et al. (2009) concluded that 

the single most important new challenge 

to recreation supply will be mitigating the 

adverse effects of climate change, particularly 

in coastal areas and on western public lands. 

Because disentangling the effects of the 

climate variables on recreation participation 

is difficult, further exploration of these direct 

and indirect relationships—at both local 

and macro levels—will be fundamental to 

improving future forecasts.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 55

We thank them all

The authors are grateful to Karen Abt, Ross Arnold, Melissa Baker, Don English, Linda Langner, 

Ed O’Leary, Donald Mansius, Evan Mercer, Neelam Poudyal, Steve Shifley, John Stanovick, 

Eric White, Carol Whitlock, and Stan Zarnoch for helpful suggestions toward the development of 

this report. Also thanks to Linda Joyce for providing climate data; to David Wear for providing 

land use data; to Ken Cordell and Carter Betz for providing recreation participation and supply 

data, 2005 to 2009 averages for participant and days numbers by activity, and insights on 

recreation trends; and to Shela Mou for her valuable assistance in manuscript preparation.

Acknowledgments
56 OUTLOOK FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION IN THE NORTHERN U.S.
O utdoor R e c r e a t i o n 57

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61
Roasting the 

perfect marshmallow

62
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We acknowledge the following photographers:

Page 15, top photo: Jasonn Beckstrand, U.S. Forest Service.

Page 28, bottom photo: Dave Schmid, U.S. Forest Service.

Page 50, bottom photo: Katie Carroll/Lindsay Campbell, U.S. Forest Service.

Page 52, bottom left photo: Barbara McGuinness, U.S. Forest Service.

a p p e n d i x o f

Ou t l o o k f o r Ou t d o o r Re c r e at i o n

in the Northern United States

DE P A R TMENT OF AGRICU LT U RE

FOREST SERVICE

U S

U.S. Department of Agriculture U.S. Forest Service

Northern

Research Station

General Technical

Report NRS-120
DE P A R TMENT OF AGRICU LT U RE

FOREST SERVICE

U S

U.S. Department of Agriculture

U.S. Forest Service

General Technical Report

NRS-120

2013