From: Phil Hopkinson [mailto:phopkinson@hvolt.com]

Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 10:13 AM

To: Rosenstock, Steven; Steve Nadel; Robert Berman

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Maxine (EMAB) Savitz;

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATIm etals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net;

bruce.r.hirsch@bge.com; tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com;

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Aaron Meyers; Antonio Trujillo; Jack C Moore; Jerry L Corkran;

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Emily (CONTR)

Marchetti; Jeremiah (CONTR) Freeman; Jim Raba; John Cymbalsky; DYoung@energy-solution.com;

rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com;

carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; gr eg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com;

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; jhodge@h oward.com; Daniel Cohen; cabolduc@lbl.gov;

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; Sco ttB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com;

kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; Brian Co ffey; Caitlin Johnson; Matthew Nardotti; Michael

Rivest; Zhimei Luo; Jim.creevy@nema.org; john.cask ey@nema.org; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org;

robert.saint@nreca.coop; Teckma n@nwcouncil.org; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com;

chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofmann@pub licpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org;

adelaski@standardsASAP.org; jmauer@stand ardsasap.org; wes.pa tterson@us.abb.com;

chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; thomas.pat zner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Negotiated Rulemaking - Distribution Transformers Teleconference

Good response Steve and I would add that on an M3 base, the paybacks soar well beyond the 30 year

life expectancy even for EL1. I see no cost justification for a change in most cases.

Phil

Philip J Hopkinson, PE

President & CEO HVOLT Inc.

3704 High Ridge Rd.

Charlotte, NC 28270

phopkinson@hvolt.com

Ph 704-846-3290

Fx 704-845-2520

Cell 704-236-3320

www.hvolt.com

From: Rosenstock, Steven [ mailto:SRosenstock@eei.org ]

Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 9:31 AM

To: Steve Nadel; Robert Berman; Phil Hopkinson

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Maxine (EMAB) Savitz;

mhyland@appanet.org ; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ;

bruce.r.hirsch@bge.com ; tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ; James.Lass@cleco.com ;

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; Aaron Meyers; Antonio Trujillo; Jack C Moore; Jerry L Corkran;

tballo@earthjustice.org ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; Emily (CONTR)

Marchetti; Jeremiah (CONTR) Freeman; Jim Raba; John Cymbalsky; DYoung@energy-solution.com ;

rick.anderson@faypwc.com ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ; rgreeson@federalpacific.com ;

carlos.gaytan@ge.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ; greg.coulter405@gmail.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ;

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; jhodge@howard.com ; Daniel Cohen; cabolduc@lbl.gov ;

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ; ScottB@LVMetals.com ; dave.millure@metglas.com ;kwinder@mleainc.com ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ; brian.coffey@navigant.com ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ;

matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ; mrivest@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ;

Jim.creevy@nema.org ; john.caskey@nema.org ; mwaltner@nrdc.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ;

robert.saint@nreca.coop ; Teckman@nwcouncil.org ; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; gbf1@pge.com ;

chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ; ahofmann@publicpower.org ; pkumar@publicpower.org ;

adelaski@standardsASAP.org ; jmauer@standardsasap.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ;

chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Negotiated Rulemaking - Distribution Transformers Teleconference



### Mr. Nadel,

In terms of the DOE analysis, some of us are still waiting for t he other sensitivity

analyses before concluding that DOE has just ified higher standards . For example, I

have not seen the analysis of transformer costs t hat rise higher than the rate of inflation

(which DOE has shown has been the case sinc e 2003). Also, many parties do not think

that a 24 year payback is “cost effective”.

Also, please refer to the atta chment. Today’s standards that took effect on January 1,

2010, are not “low”. In fact, they are significantly higher th an the levels that several

parties agreed to for 2009 or even 2013. The standard that took effect were at level 4.5

for many transformer, well above the Level 2 efficiency that was agreed to.

Also, several parties have indicated that they do not want to sign on to a standard that

will likely result in domestic job losses and more “off-shoring” of jobs to meet the new

standards. See the following for examples:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/ 2010/09/07/AR2010090706933.html

http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article /2010/10/04/ge-closes-l ast-incandescentlight-bulb-plant-jobs-sent-china

http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/28/news/companies/whirlpool_jobs/index.htm

http://business380.com/2011/10/27/whirlpool-bringing- 160-jobs-to-amana-closingarkansas-plant/ Key quotes:

“Benton Harbor, Mich.-based Whirlpool announc ed Thursday that it plans to close its

refrigerator plant in Fort Smit h, Ark., in mid-2012, due to a decrea se in demand for side-by-side

refrigerators. The closing will put 884 hourly workers and 90 salaried employees employees out

of work.”

“ The Fort Smith facility employed 4,600 people five years ago, but that number has declined in

the poor economy and since Whirlpool opened a re frigerator factory in Mexico. The company

said its plant at Ramos Arizpe, Mexico, will ta ke on side-by-side refrigerator production, but will

not need to hire new workers.”

### So, my question to you is, can’t you be a little flexible, since standards went up so high

In 2010? Can’t you see that there are risks involved in going even higher?

Steve Rosenstock

Manager, Energy Solutions

Edison Electric Institute

srosenstock@eei.org

202-508-5465

From: Steve Nadel [ mailto:snadel@aceee.org ]

Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 2:16 PM

To: Robert Berman; Phil Hopkinson

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Maxine (EMAB) Savitz;

mhyland@appanet.org ; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ;

bruce.r.hirsch@bge.com ; tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ; James.Lass@cleco.com ;

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; Aaron Meyers; Antonio Trujillo; Jack C Moore; Jerry L Corkran;

tballo@earthjustice.org ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; Emily (CONTR)

Marchetti; Jeremiah (CONTR) Freeman; Jim Ra ba; John Cymbalsky; Rosenstock, Steven;

DYoung@energy-solution.com ; rick.anderson@faypwc.com ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ;

rgreeson@federalpacific.com ; carlos.gaytan@ge.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ;

greg.coulter405@gmail.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ;

jhodge@howard.com ; Daniel Cohen; cabolduc@lbl.gov ; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ;

ScottB@LVMetals.com ; dave.millure@metglas.com ; kwinder@mleainc.com ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ;

brian.coffey@navigant.com ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ;

mrivest@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ; Jim.creevy@nema.org ; john.caskey@nema.org ;

mwaltner@nrdc.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ; robert.saint@nreca.coop ; Teckman@nwcouncil.org ;

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; gbf1@pge.com ; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ;

ahofmann@publicpower.org ; pkumar@publicpower.org ; adelaski@standardsASAP.org ;

jmauer@standardsasap.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ;

thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Negotiated Rulemaking - Distribution Transformers Teleconference

Phil,

We're in the middle of negotiations and some of us have made clear that no or little change to the

standard is not acceptable as the DOE analysis just ifies higher standards (higher levels are technically

feasible and cost-effective on a life-cycle cost basi s). The efficiency groups would rather leave the

decision to DOE than agree to subpar standards. If you and other participants want to veto any

significant change in the standard, th en we might as well save some time , break off negoti ations and just

make our respective arguments to DOE. Is that what yo u want to do? If the answ er is no, then let's starttalking about how to make higher standards acceptable rather than continue to make arguments about

why low standards are needed. We're all busy and if we're going to ma ke progress we need to break new

ground and not rehash old ground.

Steve

>>> Phil Hopkinson < phopkinson@hvolt.com > 11/11/2011 1:16 PM >>>

Hello Robert and all:

You must not have looked at Jerry Corkran’s message because he found the cost to be $17/watt, which

is pretty close to my number, where both Jerry and I have used M3 core steel to derive the cost curve.

The fact is that the cost curve is very steep with M3 an d quickly hits the brick wall.

1. I have checked Carlos Gaytan’s cost curves as well and he is finding about the same

relationship with M3.

2. I have checked Wes Patterson’s data as well and he is finding an M3 cost curve about the same

as mine.

3. I have checked the OPS data with M3 as well and it too is very close to $20/watt.

a. For example, for design line 1 they show an efficiency at 50% load of 99.08% which

translates to 232 watts of loss and sells for $1,960.73.

b. They show another M3 design with an efficiency of 99.26% which translates to 186

watts of loss and sells for $2962.11.

c. The change in selling price is $2,962.11

‐ $1,906.11 or +$1,001.38

d. The change in watts is 232

‐ 186 or ‐ 46 watts.

e. The OPS $/watt is therefore, $1,001.38/46 watts or $21.77

f. Hence we see that all data sources are pointing to cost per watt of ~$20 /watt saved to

go from the current mandatory standard to EL1. I get $30/watt to go to EL2 and

$53/watt to go to EL3

4. The fact is that M3 is about out of gas and the DOE did a good job in the last rule making.

5. The fact also is that a push to anything beyond present does not show economic value and I do

not support it.

6. The fact also is that a push to higher efficiencies will kill the new transformer market and open

up the rebuild market, destroying jobs at the new transformer manufacturers and resulting in

transformers of lower efficiency which will cost energy and not save it.

Best regards,

Phil

Philip J Hopkinson, PE

President & CEO HVOLT Inc.

3704 High Ridge Rd.

Charlotte, NC 28270

phopkinson@hvolt.com

Ph 704-846-3290

Fx 704-845-2520

Cell 704-236-3320

www.hvolt.comFrom: Robert Berman [ mailto:bermaneconomics@gmail.com ]

Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 11:16 AM

To: Phil Hopkinson

Cc: Corkran, Jerry L; Richard Parker; Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); rick.anderson@faypwc.com ;

tballo@earthjustice.org ; ScottB@LVMetals.com ; john.caskey@nema.org ; Cymbalsky, John;

adelaski@standardsASAP.org ; Teckman@nwcouncil.org ; gbf1@pge.com ; carlos.gaytan@ge.com ;

rgreeson@federalpacific.com ; bruce.r.hirsch@bge.com ; jhodge@howard.com ; mhyland@appanet.org ;

dave.millure@metglas.com ; snadel@aceee.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ; Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ;

Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ; srosenstock@eei.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ;

robert.saint@nreca.coop ; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ; kwinder@mleainc.com ; mwaltner@nrdc.org ;

jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; ahofmann@publicpower.org ;

pkumar@publicpower.org ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ; greg.coulter405@gmail.com ;

jmauer@standardsasap.org ; Cohen, Daniel; Meyers, Aaron; Jim.creevy@nema.org ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ;

cabolduc@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ; brian.coffey@navigant.com ; mrivest@navigant.com ;

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ; Marchetti, Emily

(CONTR); charlied@uus.org ; DYoung@energy-solution.com ; James.Lass@cleco.com ;

maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ; Raba, Jim; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB);

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ;

frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ;

chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ;

thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; Robert Berman; Trujillo,

Antonio; Moore, Jack C

Subject: Re: Negotiated Rulemaking - Distribution Transformers Teleconference



### Even if it were that high (and Mr. Hopkinson is the only one I've seen who has put the number

anywhere near that), the effi ciency objective is saving Watt- hours (energy) not Watts (the

capacity to save energy) . One Watt saved fo r 8,760 hours per year for 30 years is 262.8 kWh

(not counting leap years). Even at Mr. Hutchi nson's $20, that's just over 7¢ / kWh. If Mr.

Hutchinson will examine his electric bill, as he ha s reported, he will see that even as high as 7¢

it's a good buy, and that assumes we put a ZERO valu e on any environmental benefits (which is

why DOE agreed to reconsider its 2007 MEPS in the first place.

Indeed, the cost of losses per Watt (roughly the A factors that O PS has been using) are no where

near the $20 claimed here. Moreover, as ABB and others have pointed out, the proper approach

would have been to minimize cost subject to e fficiency, not A & B, which would have resulted

in a lower, flatter curve to the asymptote. ABB's actual market data -- physical transformers

produced and delivered -- shows a competitive market for M3 transformers even at EL4

efficiency. You can make all the hypothe tical claims you want to, gentlemen, the market is the

real world

.



### Regards,

Robert A. Berman, Principal

Berman Economics

www.BermanEconomics.com

1915 Grand Court

Vienna, VA 22182

703-281-0490

### 703-655-8398 (cell)

BermanEconomics@gmail.com

On Nov 10, 2011, at 6:53 PM, Phil Hopkinson wrote:

Well stated Jerry

That is also what my analysis a nd report said. If you restrict to M3 then the cost of EL1 rises to

about $20/watt.

Phil

Phil Hopkinson,P.E.

HVolt Inc.

704-846-3290

F: 704-845-2520

C: 704-236-3320

phopkinson@hvolt.com

On Nov 10, 2011, at 18:04, "Corkran, Jerry L" < Jerry.Corkran@CooperIndustries.com > wrote:

To Mr. Parker and the DOE working group,

The reason for the request for the incremental cost of the losses is that the current DOE efficiency levels

can be obtained if the design is optimized at about $4 per core watt and $1 per winding watt at full

load. At the DOE 50% kVA rating, this is the same as evaluating th e losses or optimizing the design at

about $4 per total watts loss.

The present DOE efficiency loss level results in transformer designs about like many utilities were

purchasing their transformers before 2007. The utilities were purchasing the efficiency levels that were

justified based on the cost of losses. A few utilities were purchasing higher efficiency that the 2007

efficiency rules because of the cal culated cost of energy being higher than the $4/$1 loss evaluation.

What came up in the discussion last week was even for loss level 1, the incremental cost of losses was

about $17 per watt for the design checked, between the present DOE losses an efficiency level of DEL1.

The added cost of $17 per watt is so much higher than the typical cost of the ene rgy for the utilities,

that it is very questionable that the DOE payback estimates are accurate. A 3% interest rate may be a

factor in the payback calculations.Jerry Corkran

From: Richard Parker [ mailto:richardparkerdc@gmail.com ]

Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2011 3:23 PM

To: Robert Berman

Cc: Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); rick.anderson@faypwc.com ; tballo@earthjustice.org ;

ScottB@LVMetals.com ; john.caskey@nema.org ; Corkran, Jerry L; Cymbalsky, John;

adelaski@standardsASAP.org ; Teckman@nwcouncil.org ; gbf1@pge.com ; carlos.gaytan@ge.com ;

rgreeson@federalpacific.com ; bruce.r.hirsch@bge.com ; jhodge@howard.com ; mhyland@appanet.org ;

dave.millure@metglas.com ; snadel@aceee.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ; Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ;

Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ; srosenstock@eei.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ;

robert.saint@nreca.coop ; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ; kwinder@mleainc.com ; mwaltner@nrdc.org ;

jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; ahofmann@publicpower.org ;

pkumar@publicpower.org ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ; greg.coulter405@gmail.com ;

jmauer@standardsasap.org ; Cohen, Daniel; Meyers, Aaron; Jim.creevy@nema.org ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ;

cabolduc@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ; brian.coffey@navigant.com ; mrivest@navigant.com ;

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ; Marchetti, Emily

(CONTR); charlied@uus.org ; DYoung@energy-solution.com ; James.Lass@cleco.com ;

maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ; phopkinson@hvolt.com ; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ; Raba, Jim;

Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ;

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ;

dbrender@cda.copper.org ; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ;

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ;

carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com

Subject: Re: Negotiated Rulemaking - Distribution Transformers Teleconference



### Robert,

I understand the DOE staff are working on the in cremental Watts calculations and will get that

out to group as soon as it's ready.

best wishes,

Richard

On Thu, Nov 10, 2011 at 11:52 AM, Robert Berman < bermaneconomics@gmail.com > wrote:

Thank you Richard. That clarification is helpful.

### In the liquid-filled meeting we were told that we would receive an analysis of incremental Watts

saved by DL for all ELs, as well as the incremental cost. When will that analysis be available?

For many of us, that analysis is the basis for a dditional, perhaps extensiv e analyses, so it should

come with enough lead time before any additional meetings or teleconferences to that we can

give it the required consideration. It would be most helpful if th e incremental cost were provided

separately for transformer and installation, with any pole component of the installation identified.

For the MV Dry and LV Dry meetings, it would be most helpful if you would also circulate an

agenda with objectives, hopefully this week, so that we are able to prepare for those meetings.



### Regards,

Robert A. Berman, Principal

Berman Economics

www.BermanEconomics.com

1915 Grand Court

Vienna, VA 22182

703

‐ 281

‐ 0490

703

‐ 655

‐ 8398 (cell)

BermanEconomics@gmail.com

On Nov 10, 2011, at 11:14 AM, Richard Parker wrote:

Dear Colleagues:

The telcon on the 17th is currently planned for medium-voltage dry-type and the telcon on the

21st is reserved for low-voltage. There will be revised analysis circulat ed in advance of both

calls per our discussion yesterday. Each call has substantia l chunks of time allocated, though I

hope we won't need all that time.

It may be prudent to schedule a liquid-filled call at some point as well, but I propose that we hold

off on that for day or so, until we can clarify wh en revised analysis for liquid-filled will be

ready.

Thanks for your very constructive participation in the meetings over the last two days.

Richard Parker

### On Thu, Nov 10, 2011 at 10:05 AM, Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR)

< Jeremiah.Freeman@ee.doe.gov > wrote:

When: Thursday, November 17, 2011 1:00 PM

‐ 5:00 PM (GMT

‐ 05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada).

Where: Webinar and Phone

Note: The GMT offset above does not reflect daylight saving time adjustments.

*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*

Dear Colleagues,

This event is to save the time slot on your calendar based on our discussion at yesterday's meeting.

Later today further information will be sent regarding the registration information for our November 17

and November 21 webinars. After registering you will get the link for the webinar and a toll free

numb er.

Please call with questions or concerns.

Very Respectfully,

Jeremiah Freeman

202

‐ 431

‐ 4243 (cell)

202

‐ 586

‐ 1867 (office)