HANDBOOK OF 

CYCLICAL 

INDICATORS 

A Supplement To The 

Business Conditions Digest 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 

George Jaszi, Director 

Allan H. Young, Deputy Director 

Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for 

National Analysis and Projections 

Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical 

Indicators Division 

This Handbook has been prepared under the direction of Feliks Tamm, 

Chief, Statistical Indicators Division. Technical staff and their responsibilities 

for the publication are: 

Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review. 

Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods. 

Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data. 

The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide 

data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated with the 

series descriptions. 

The Analytical Measures have been prepared in consultation with Professor 

Victor Zarnowitz of the Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, and 

the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 

Editorial service has been provided by Sybella Clayton G'Schwend. 

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office 

Washington, D.C. 20402 

Stock No. 003-010-00056-2 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
HANDBOOK OF 

CYCLICAL 

INDICATORS 

A Supplement to 

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST 

MAY 1977 

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 

Juanita M. Kreps, Secretary 

Courtenay M. Slater, Chief Economist for 

the Department of Commerce 

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 

George Jaszi, Director 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS 

A Supplement to BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST 

Table of Contents 

Page 

Introduction 1 

I. Analytical Measures 3 

Table 1. Cyclical Indicators: Series Scores 3 

Table 2. Cyclical Indicators: Average Timing at Peaks, Troughs and All Turns 6 

Table 3A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability 9 

Table 3B. QCD and Related Measures of Variability 12 

II. Series Descriptions 15 

III. Composite Indexes: A Brief Explanation and the Methods of Construction 73 

IV. Historical Data 77 

V. Appendixes: (Reprints of Articles from May 1975 and November 1975 issues of BCD). . . . 169 

1. Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation and New Leading Indexes 170 

2. New Composite Indexes of Coincident and Lagging Indicators 185 

VI. Index—Series Finding Guide 200 

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INTRODUCTION 

This Handbook covers over 300 time series of particular usefulness to business analysts and forecasters. These 

series are regularly presented in both charts and tables in 

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD), a monthly report 

by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). A major revision of BCD was introduced in November 1976, at which 

time the plan to publish this supplement was announced. 

The revisron resulted from a comprehensive study of business cycle indicators initiated late in 1972 by BEA. The 

research study was carried out in consultation with experts from universities, the business community, and the 

National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., and benefitted from the advice of the BCD Technical Committee of 

the Office of Management and Budget as well as from the 

knowledge of preferences expressed by BCD subscribers 

in a special survey conducted by BEA 

Objectives 

The Handbook is designed to collect in a single reference volume vital descriptive and numerical information 

about the economic time series included in BCD, with particular attention being given to the cyclical indicators and 

composite indexes. Much of the material is presented for 

the first time; some has been published before in various 

issues of BCD but is reproduced here to make it conveniently accessible for the user. 

Analytical Measures 

This part includes three comprehensive tables with 

measures of cyclical and other characteristics of the 

series. 

Table 1. Scores.—Six criteria are applied in assessing the indicators: economic significance, statistical adequacy, timing, conformity, smoothness, and currency. For 

timing, three separate scores are computed for each 

series, relating to peaks, troughs, and all turns, and so 

there are three corresponding overall scores. The procedures used to derive the component scores and the 

detailed weighting schemes used to combine them into 

total scores are described in the first of the two articles 

from BCD reprinted in this Handbook.1 Table 1 lists eight 

component scores and three overall scores for each of 

the nine composite indexes and 111 individual series 

1

 Victor Zarnowitz and Charlotte Boschan, "Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation and New Leading Indexes," BCD, May 1975, and "New Composite 

Indexes of Coincident and Lagging Indicators," BCD, November 1975. 

shown in part I, sections A and B of BCD. The indicators 

are classified by seven major "types of economic process" 

and each of these classes is further subdivided into several "groups of variables." The period covered is 1948. 

1970, the same as that used in the BEA evaluation of the 

indicators and the composite indexes. 

Table 2. Average Timing Measures.—Since a major 

function of the indicators is to help predict or recognize 

business cycle turning points, timing aspects—the length 

and consistency of leads and lags at cyclical turning 

points—play an especially important part in the evaluation of these series. 

Table 2, which shows the medians, means, and standard deviations of the leads or lags at peaks, troughs, and 

all turns, provides additional information supplementing 

the timing scores shown in table 1. The timing scores are 

based mainly on the probability that the observed number 

of timing comparisons of a given type will be equaled or 

exceeded by chance. The series are classified as either 

leading, roughly coincident, or lagging at peaks, troughs, 

and all turns according to the type of timing that maximizes their scores (except in those cases where their 

timing at a given type of turn is not sufficiently regular 

and they are said to be "unclassified"). 

Table 3. Average Variability Measures.—Other things 

being equal, a smooth series is preferable to an erratic 

one as a cyclical indicator. Measures of smoothness, 

based on the relationship between the irregular and 

trend-cycle components in individual time series, are 

shown in table 3.2 These measures originate in a statistical decomposition procedure which is also the foundation of the current, widely adopted method of seasonal 

adjustment. Table 3 follows a format used in past issues 

of BCD and includes measures for the cyclical indicators 

in part I of BCD and the "other important economic measures" in part II. The period covered by the measures in 

table 3 is 1948-1975.3 

Series Descriptions 

These are concise statements about the definitions, 

sources, and methods of derivation of the individual series 

published in BCD. More complete descriptions of the 

methods of compiling the various series are available 

from the source agencies. 

2

 For definitions of the various measures of variability shown, see footnotes to table 3. 3

 Table 3 is thus more up-to-date than tables 1 and 2 which cover the 

period 1948-1970. Measures of variability for the shorter period, as used 

for scoring the indicators, will be presented in the forthcoming monograph 

on the BEA research project. At a later date, timing measures and scores 

covering the period 1948-1976 will be published in BCD. 

BCD 1977 1 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Method of Constructing Composite Indexes 

This section briefly describes the composite indexes 

and offers a step-by-step account of the method of constructing them. The procedure is designed to assure symmetrical treatment of increases and decreases, prevent 

domination of the index by the more volatile series, assign 

more weight to the better performing cyclical indicators, 

and equalize both the secular trends and the average 

monthly changes in the three indexes.4 

through 1975, thus providing the user with a complete, 

reasonably up-to-date record conveniently assembled in a 

single source. Data shown in this supplement reflect 

revisions through February 1977, except for a few series 

which include revisions through April 1977. Data for the 

period since 1975 are shown in current issues of BCD. As 

historical data are revised in the future, these revisions 

will be published in the monthly BCD. 

Historical Data 

The Handbook contains data for all BCD series, going 

back to 1945 where possible and extending uniformly 

Series Finding Guide 

This guide lists the BCD series in numerical order and 

indicates the pages on which the series descriptions and 

historical data can be found. 

4

 The procedures described in this Handbook differ from those employed 

prior to November 1976 and which underlie the indexes and scores shown 

in the May 1975 and November 1975 BCD articles. (The appendix to the 

May 1975 article describes the details of the prior procedure.) Changes in 

the method of constructing the indexes had only marginal effects on the 

scores, timing, recent movements, and historical patterns of the indexes. 

2 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
I. ANALYTICAL MEASURES 

Table 1. Cyclical Indicators: Series Scores 

Series title 

Timing 

Peaks 

(1) 

Troughs 

(2) 

All 

turns 

(3) 

Conformity 

(4) 

Smoothness 

(5) 

Currency 

(6) 

Statistical 

adequacy 

(7) 

Economic 

significance 

(8) 

Peaks 

(9) 

A. COMPOSITE INDEXES 

910. Twelve leading indicators 

920. Four roughly coincident indicators 

930. Six lagging indicators 

940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index 

Leading Indicator Subgroups: 

913. Marginal employment adjustments 

914. Capital investment commitments 

915. Inventory investment and purchasing 

916. Profitability 

917. Money and financial flows 

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS 

B1. Employment and Unemployment 

Marginal Employment Adjustments: 

* 1 . Average workweek of production workers, mfg 

Average weekly overtime, production workers, mfg 

Accession rate, mfg 

Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (inverted1) 

Layoff rate, mfg. (inverted1) 

Quit rate, mfg 

21. 

2. 

5. 

*3. 

4. 

Job Vacancies: 

60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment 

46. Index of help-wanted advertising 

Comprehensive Employment: 

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments 

42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities . . . 

*41 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 

40. Employees in goods-producing industries 

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population . . 

Comprehensive Unemployment: 

37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted1) 

43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted1) 

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (inverted1) 

*91 . Average duration of unemployment (inverted1) 

44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inverted1) .. . 

B2. Production and Income 

Comprehensive Output and Income: 

50. GNP, 1972 dollars 

52. Personal income, 1972 dollars 

*51 . Personal income, less transfer payments, 1972 dollars 

53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction, 1972 dollars . 

Industrial Production: 

*47. Index of industrial production, total 

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures . . 

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures 

49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars 

Capacity Utilization: 

83. Rate of capacity utilization, mfg. (BEA) 

82. Rate of capacity utilization, mfg. (FRB) 

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials . . 

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries 

Orders and Deliveries: 

6. New orders, durable goods industries, current dollars 

7. New orders, durable goods industries, 1972 dollars 

*8. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars 

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries 

96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries 

*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries (u) 

Consumption and Trade: 

56. Mfg. and trade sales, current dollars . . 

*57. Mfg. and trade sales, 1972 dollars . . . 

75. Industrial production, consumer goods 

54. Sales of retail stores, current dollars . . 

59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars . . . 

55. PCE, automobiles 

58. Index of consumer sentiment <§).,. . 

B4. Fixed Capital Investment 

Formation of Business Enterprises: 

*12. Index of net business formation ■ 

13. Number of new business incorporations I 

(NA) 

47 

46 

(NA) 

95 

30 

92 

75 i 

86 

100 

94 

80 

81 

49 

80 

64 

79 

69 

68 

67 

100 

99 

99 

97 

90 

86 

89 

100 

(NA) 

71 

38 

78 

64 

65 

86 

87 

35 

54 

63 

63 

63 

64 

60 

30 

60 

80 

80 

70 

93 

80 

66 

95 

100 

(NA) 

54 

51 

75 

75 

55 

61 

22 

39 

47 

59 

4 

100 

100 

100 

80 

80 

100 

100 

100 

60 

60 

40 

60 

60 

80 

80 

100 

80 

100 

100 

60 

80 

80 

100 

80 

80 

80 

100 

100 

100 

100 

100 

80 

60 

60 

60 

20 

100 

60 

80 

80 

60 

60 

60 

80 

60 

80 

80 

66 

60 

55 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

78 

78 

75 

85 

80 

78 

63 

78 

78 

20 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

20 

0 

20 

20 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

54 

54 

80 

80 

80 

20 

20 

80 

54 1 

66 

70 

70 

70 

72 

73 

70 

75 

50 

65 

48 

80 

80 

75 

80 

80 

75 

65 

65 

70 

80 

75 

66 

84 

61 

90 1 

100 

100 

100 

90 

90 

90 

90 

80 

90 

100 

90 

90 

80 

80 

74 

87 

66 

69 

69 

71 

72 

61 

68 

53 

63 

68 

72 

69 

67 

68 

66 

57 

82 

80 

70 

77 

77 

69 

87 

86 

79 

70 

80 

85 

81 

82 

77 

(NA) 

60 

55 

71 

71 

69 

66 

75 

64 

78 

73 

72 

76 

53 

42 

52 

65 

43 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 1. Cyclical Indicators: Series Scores—Continued 

Series title 

Peaks 

(1) 

Timing 

Troughs 

(2) 

All 

turns 

(3) 

Conformity 

(4) 

Smoothness 

(5) 

Currency 

(6) 

Statistical 

adequacy 

(7) 

Economic 

significance 

(8) 

Peaks 

(9) 

B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Continued 

Business Investment Commitments: 

10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars 

*20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1972 dollars 

24. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars 

27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars 

9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial 

11. New capital appropriations, mfg 

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg 

Business Investment Expenditures: 

61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment 

69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 

76. Industrial production, business equipment 

86. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars 

87. Nonresidential fixed investment, structures, 1972 dollars 

88. Nonresidential fixed investment, producers'durable equipment, 1972 dollars . . 

Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 

28. New private housing units started, total 

*29. New building permits, private housing 

89. Residential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars 

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment 

Inventory Investment: 

30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars 

*36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars (smoothed2) . . . 

3 1. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories 

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg 

Inventories on Hand and on Order: 

71. Mfg. and trade inventories, current dollars 

*70. Mfg. and trade inventories, 1972 dollars 

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods 

77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, mfg. and trade 

78. Materials and supplies on hand and on order 

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits 

Sensitive Commodity Prices: 

*92. Change in sensitive prices (smoothed2) 

23. Index of industrial materials prices (u) 

Stock Prices: 

*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (§) 

Profits and Profit Margins: 

16. Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars 

18. Corporate prof its after taxes, 1972 dollars 

79. Corporate profits after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj, current dollars 

80. Corporate prof its after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj, 1972 dollars 

22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to corporate domestic income 

8 1 . Ratio, profits (after taxes), with IVA and CCAdj, to corporate domestic income 

15. Prof its (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg 

17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, mfg 

Cash Flows: 

34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars 

35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars 

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 

63. Unit labor cost, private business sector 

68. Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product 

*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg 

64. Compensation of employees as percent of national income 

B7. Money and Credit 

Money: 

85. Change in money supply (M1) 

102. Change in money supply (M2) 

*104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed2) 

*105. Money supply (M1), 1972 dollars 

106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars 

Velocity of Money: 

107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (M1) 

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) 

56 

68 

68 

68 

0 

6 

55 

92 

38 

95 

91 

68 

87 

57 

58 

56 

59 

66 

56 

35 

97 

92 

84 

96 

40 

58 

0 

66 

60 

53 

32 

32 

53 

0 

47 

53 

89 

96 

89 

94 

11 

52 

60 

10 

98 

91 

93 

77 

89 

98 

76 

87 

100 

87 

80 

64 

11 

86 

72 

68 

82 

70 

65 

67 

38 

69 

66 

73 

75 

66 

44 

69 

50 

55 

47 

70 

60 

56 

33 

61 

75 

24 

65 

59 

60 

41 

46 

26 

38 

38 

50 

36 

35 

70 

57 

26 

47 

52 

51 

70 

41 

10 

10 

42 

52 

70 

50 

40 

40 

60 

60 

0 

60 

100 

80 

80 

100 

80 

80 

80 

40 

100 

0 

40 

100 

100 

100 

60 

100 

80 

0 

0 

100 

100 

100 

66 

100 

100 

100 

100 

66 

80 

80 

50 

50 

68 

68 

69 

69 

69 

65 

75 

70 

80 

80 

80 

53 

70 

75 

85 80 

63 

69 I 

71 

70 

44 

43 

66 

77 

64 

85 

75 

65 

74 

61 

70 

62 

63 | 

69 

56 I 

51 

80 I 

82 

70 

74 

65 

65 

53 

74 

61 

55 I 

55 

52 

60 ! 

41 

52 

67 

67 

58 

67 

72 

73 | 

76 

48 

43 

64 

74 | 

61 

75 

77 

4 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Table 1. Cyclical Indicators: Series Scores—Continued 

Series title 

Timing 

Peaks 

(1) 

Troughs 

(2) 

All 

turns 

(3) 

Conformity 

(4) 

Smoothness 

(5) 

Currency 

(6) 

Statistical 

adequacy 

(7) 

Economic 

significance 

(8) 

Peaks 

(9) 

B7. Money and Credit-Continued 

Credit Flows: 

33. Net change in mortgage debt 

112. Change in bank loans to businesses 

113. Change in consumer installment debt 

110. Total private borrowing 

Credit Difficulties: 

14. Current liabilities of business failures (inverted1) (u) . . . . 

39. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans (inverted') 

Bank Reserves: 

93. Free reserves (inverted1) (§) 

94. Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve <§) 

Interest Rates: 

119. Federal funds rate @ 

114. Treasury bill rate (u) 

116. Corporate bond yields (u) 

115. Treasury bond yields <§) 

117. Municipal bond yields (§) 

118. Mortgage yields, secondary market (§) 

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (u) 

*109. Average prime rate charged by banks (§) 

Outstanding Debt: 

66. Consumer installment debt 

*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 

*95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income 

15 

67 

14 

40 

66 

68 

49 

91 

92 

95 

88 

65 

73 

76 

75 

59 

77 

53 

80 

29 

82 

79 

76 

29 

81 

53 

78 

80 

66 

79 

78 

83 

75 

72 

72 

80 

72 

66 

22 

74 

71 

82 

60 

83 

72 

80 

86 

83 

83 

86 

91 

56 

70 

63 

66 

75 

51 

20 

79 

45 

60 

0 

60 

60 

0 

40 

60 

60 

80 

80 

60 

60 

60 

60 

80 

100 

100 

100 

100 

54 

100 

54 

20 

27 

27 

100 

100 

100 

100 

100 

100 

100 

80 

20 

100 

54 

100 

54 

60 

65 

90 

90 

65 

54 

63 

63 

78 

85 

83 

82 

80 

69 

65 

95 

90 

60 

70 

80 

80 

80 

90 

80 

70 

80 

80 

90 

90 

90 

90 

90 

90 

90 

90 

80 

80 

80 

48 

49 

65 

58 

46 

43 

59 

73 

62 

75 

78 

77 

70 

78 

75 

88 

74 

77 

71 

1

 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, its lower 

turning points are considered peaks and its upper turning points are considered troughs. 

2

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the 

span. 

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by<§), which appear to contain no seasonal 

movement Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. For complete 

series titles, including definitions and sources, see the series descriptions elsewhere in this supplement. NA, 

not available. CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. PCE, personal 

consumption expenditures. 

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Table 2. Cyclical Indicators: Average Timing at Peaks, Troughs, and All Turns 

Peaks 

Median 

(1) 

Mean and 

standard 

deviation 

(2) 

Troughs 

Median 

(3) 

Mean and 

standard 

deviation 

(4) 

All turns 

Median 

(5) 

Mean and 

standard 

deviation 

(6) 

A. COMPOSITE INDEXES 

910. Twelve leading indicators 

920. Four roughly coincident indicators 

930. Six lagging indicators 

940L Ratio, coincident index to lagging index 

Leading Indicator Subgroups: 

913. Marginal employment adjustments 

914. Capital investment commitments 

915. Inventory investment and purchasing 

916. Profitability 

917. Money and financial flows 

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS 

B1. Employment and Unemployment 

Marginal Employment Adjustments: 

* 1 . Average workweek of production workers, mfg 

21. Average weekly overtime, production workers, mfg 

2. Accession rate, mfg 

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (inverted1) 

*3. Layoff rate, mfg. (inverted1) 

4. Quit rate, mfg 

Job Vacancies: 

60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment 

46. Index of help-wanted advertising 

Comprehensive Employment: 

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments 

42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities 

*41 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 

40. Employees in goods-producing industries 

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population 

Comprehensive Unemployment: 

37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted1) 

43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted1) 

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (inverted1) 

*91 . Average duration of unemployment (inverted1) 

44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inverted1) 

B2. Production and Income 

Comprehensive Output and Income: 

50. GNP, 1972 dollars 

52. Personal income, 1972 dollars 

*51 . Personal income, less transfer payments, 1972 dollars 

53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction, 1972 dollars ... . 

Industrial Production: 

*47. Index of industrial production, total 

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures 

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures 

49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars 

Capacity Utilization: 

83. Rate of capacity utilization, mfg. (BEA) 

82. Rate of capacity utilization, mfg. (FRB) 

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials 

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries 

Orders and Deliveries: 

6. New orders, durable goods industries, current dollars 

7. New orders, durable goods industries, 1972 dollars 

*8. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars 

25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries 

96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries 

*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries ® 

Consumption and Trade: 

56. Mfg. and trade sales, current dollars 

*57. Mfg. and trade sales, 1972 dollars 

75. Industrial production, consumer goods 

54. Sales of retail stores, current dollars 

59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars 

55. PCE, automobiles 

58. Index of consumer sentiment (u) 

B4. Fixed Capital Investment 

Formation of Business Enterprises: 

*12. Index of net business formation 

13. Number of new business incorporations 

-11 

-2 

+2 

-11 

-10 

-10 

-4 

-11 

-10 

-12 

-13 

-13 

-12 

-11 

-5*s 

-5k 

-4 

-4 

-2 

-4 

-4 

-Ik 

-7 

+1 

+1 

-2 

-k 

-k 

- 2 

- 3 

- 3 

- 3 

0 

(NA) 

- 1 5 

- 6 

-10 

- 5 

- 1 4 

- 6 

- 3 

- 3 

- 2 

- U s 

0 

-5Js 

- 9 

- 1 1 

- 1 5 

-11. 8 (6.2 ) 

-2. 8 (1.7 ) 

+2.0 (0.6) 

-15.4 (7.3) 

-12.0 (4.7) 

-14.6 (7.8) 

-9. 4 (7.5) 

-12.2 (5.9) 

-12.8 (5.5 ) 

-12.4 

-14.0 

-17.0 

-16.8 

-15.0 

-7. 8 

-9.5 

-7.2 

-3. 2 

-3. 0 

-1.4 

-3. 4 

-4. 8 

-6.8 

-6.8 

-9.5 

+0.6 

-0.4 

(10.3) 

(7.3) 

(7.8) 

(6.2) 

(5.2) 

(5.4) 

(3.0) 

(3.4) 

(2.7) 

(2.1) 

(7.5) 

(3.4) 

(3.6) 

(7.4) 

(1.5) 

(4.4) 

-1.6 (1.5) 

0.0 (1.2 ) 

+0.2 (1.6 ) 

-3. 0 (2.7 ) 

-3. 0 (2.3 ) 

-2. 8 (2.1 ) 

-2. 8 (2.2 ) 

-1. 3 (1.5 ) 

(NA) (NA) 

-13.2 (7.5) 

-3.5 (6.4) 

-10.2 

-10.2 

-10.4 

-16.2 

-9. 3 

-9.4 

-2. 8 

-2. 8 

-1.7 

-1. 8 

-1. 3 

-4. 2 

-13.0 

-14.5 

-15.0 

(5.8 ) 

(5.5 ) 

(8.2 ) 

(8.4 ) 

(7.7 ) 

(7.2 ) 

(1.9 ) 

(2.3 ) 

(2.5 ) 

(1.8 ) 

(1.9 ) 

(5.1 ) 

(11.0) 

(6.7) 

(9.4) 

- 4 

0 

+5 

- 1 

- 1 

- 2 

- 4 

- 4 

- 4 

- 2 

0 

- 2 

0 

-1 

+4 

+Us 

+2 

0 

0 

0 

0 

+3 

+3 

+3 

+1 

+8 

+5 

0 

- U s 

-1*2 

0 

0 

0 

- 2 

0 

(NA) 

+1 

0 

- 2 

-1 

- 3 

- 8 

+3% 

- 5 

0 

-1 

-1 

- 2 

-1 

+ 1*2 

-2k 

-4.6 (2.2) 

+0.4 (0.8) 

+7.6 (4.1) 

-1. 4 (1.5 ) 

-2. 2 (1.9) 

-2. 2 (0.7 ) 

-4. 6 (3.3) 

-3. 6 (1.5) 

-4. 8 (3.0 ) 

-2.2 

-0.3 

-3.2 

-0.6 

-2.2 

+3.6 

+1.8 

+2.2 

+0.4 

-1. 5 

+0.8 

+1.3 

+3.8 

+3.8 

+3.8 

+3.2 

+9.2 

+6.0 

-0. 8 

-1. 5 

-1. 5 

+0.6 

-0. 2 

+0.8 

-2. 8 

-0. 3 

(NA) 

+1.0 

-0. 3 

-2. 0 

-0. 4 

-3. 0 

-8. 0 

+3.7 

-5. 2 

+0.2 

-1. 8 

-2. 3 

-1. 5 

-1. 0 

+1.8 

-2. 8 

(?:§) 

(2.6) 

(3.2 ) 

(1.9) 

(2.1) 

(1.5) 

(1.9) 

(2.0 ) 

(2.5) 

(1.2) 

(0.8 ) 

(2.8) 

(2.9) 

(2.9) 

(3.9) 

(3.8) 

(4.7) 

(1.5 ) 

(1.1 ) 

(1.1 ) 

(2.0 ) 

(0.4 ) 

(1.6 ) 

(2.3 ) 

(1.2 ) 

(NA) 

(l.D 

(5.2 ) 

(1.4 ) 

(1.9 ) 

(2.4 ) 

(3.4 ) 

(3.1 ) 

(3.9 ) 

(1.5 ) 

(1.4 ) 

(3.1 ) 

(2.3 ) 

(2.4 ) 

(1.8 ) 

(2.2 ) 

- 2 I -1. 8 (1.2 ) 

-6k I -5.5 (2.9) 

-7 

-k 

+3k 

-6 

-7 

-6 

-4 

-9 

-8% 

- 5 

- 5 

- 7 

- 8 

-6*s 

0 

0 

- U s 

0 

- 1 

+Us 

0 

-k 

0 

+3h 

+2h 

- 1 

-1 

- 1 

-1 

-k 

o 

-2k 

o 

(NA) 

0 

- Us 

-3k 

-4% 

-4Js 

- 1 1 

-2k 

- 6 

-1 

-2Jg 

- 1 

- 2 

-k 

0 

-3 

-8. 2 

-1. 2 

+4.8 

-8. 4 

-7. 1 

-8. 4 

-7. 0 

-7. 9 

-7. 3 

-7. 2 

-10.1 

-8. 7 

-8. 6 

-1. 4 

-3.9 

-2.5 

-1. 4 

-2. 2 

-0. 3 

-1. 0 

-0. 5 

-0. 9 

-1. 5 

-2. 4 

+4.9 

+2.8 

-3 

-1. 2 (1.5) 

-0. 8 (1.4 ) 

-0. 6 (1.7) 

-1. 2 (3.0) 

-1. 6 

-1. 0 

-2. 8 

-0. 8 

(NA) (NA) 

-5. 3 (8.7 ) 

-1. 9 (7.3) 

-6.1 

-5. 3 

-6. 7 

-12.1 

-2. 8 

-7. 3 

-1. 3 

-2. 3 

-2. 0 

-1. 6 

-1.2 

-1. 3 

-7.1 

-7. 4 (7.8 ) 

-10.2 (8.4 ) 

The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 2. Cyclical Indicators: Average Timing at Peaks, Troughs, and All Turns— Continued 

Series title 

Peaks Troughs 

Median 

(1) 

Mean and 

standard 

deviation 

(2) 

Median 

(3) 

Mean and 

standard 

deviation 

(4) 

Alt turns 

Median 

(5) 

Mean and 

standard 

deviation 

(6) 

B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Continued 

Business Investment Commitments: 

10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars 

*20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1972 dollars 

24. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars 

27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars 

9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial , 

11. New capital appropriations, mfg 

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg 

Business Investment Expenditures: 

61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment 

69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 

76. Industrial production, business equipment 

86. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars 

87. Nonresidential fixed investment, structures, 1972 dollars 

88. Nonresidential fixed investment, producers' durable equipment, 1972 dollars . 

Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 

28. New private housing units started, total 

*29. New building permits, private housing 

89. Residential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars 

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment 

Inventory Investment: 

30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars 

*36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars (smoothed2) . . , 

31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories 

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg 

Inventories on Hand and on Order: 

71. Mfg. and trade inventories, current dollars 

*70. Mfg. and trade inventories, 1972 dollars 

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods 

77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, mfg. and trade 

78. Materials and supplies on hand and on order 

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits 

Sensitive Commodity Prices: 

*92. -Change in sensitive prices (smoothed2) 

23. Index of industrial materials prices (u) 

Stock Prices: 

*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (§) 

Profits and Profit Margins: 

16. Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars 

18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars 

79. Corporate profits after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj, current dollars 

80. Corporate prof its after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj, 1972 dollars 

22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to corporate domestic income 

81. Ratio, profits (after taxes), with IVA and CCAdj, to corporate domestic income 

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg 

17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, mfg 

Cash Flows: 

34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars 

35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars 

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 

63. Unit labor cost, private business sector 

68. Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product 

*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg 

64. Compensation of employees as percent of national income 

B7. Money and Credit 

Money: 

85. Change in money supply (M1) 

102. Change in money supply (M2) 

*104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed2) 

*105. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars 

106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars 

Velocity of Money: 

107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (M1) 

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) 

-10 

-8 

-6 

+% 

-3 

-3 

0 

0 

0 

-13 

-13 

-10 

-4 

-5 

-10 

-14 

+3 

+3% 

+5% 

+8 

-3% 

-15 

-10 

-9 

-11 

-11 

-23 

-23 

-11 

-21 

-10 ^ 

-22 

-6 

-11 

+8 

+6% 

+8% 

+10 

-9. 8 

-8. 4 

-8. 6 

-8. 6 

-11.5 

-7. 2 

-3. 5 

-0. 2 

-2. 2 

-2. 8 

-0. 4 

+0.2 

-1. 6 

(2.6) 

(2.7) 

(2.4) 

(2.4) 

(14.0) 

(6.9) 

(5.0) 

(1.6) 

(3.3) 

(2.1) 

(1.9) 

(6.2) 

(3.8) 

-15.8 (8.3) 

-15.6 (7.8) 

-11.2 (8.5) 

-7.6 (7.0) 

-7.2 (3.5) 

-12.8 (8.6) 

-14.0 (4.9) 

+2.8 

+4.5 

+4.8 

+8.0 

-4. 2 

-12.2 

-12.4 

(0.8) 

(3.5) 

(3.3) 

(2.0) 

(2.5) 

(7.7) 

(n.o) 

-9.0 (3.2) 

-10.6 

-13.6 

-20.8 

-21.4 

-18.4 

-19.8 

-11.8 

-22.0 

-7. 0 

-13.6 

(6.5) 

(8.0) 

(14.6) 

(15.5) 

(16.3) 

(14.9) 

(5.8) 

(12.8) 

(2.1) 

(8.0) 

+6.5 (4.1) 

+7.2 (1.6) 

+6.8 (4.0) 

+8.6 (3.1) 

-19% 

-15% 

-6% 

-10 

-13% 

0 

0 

-21.0 

-15.5 

-9.5 

-11.8 

-14.5 

-0. 4 

+0.6 

(5.5) 

Wo] 

(1.0) 

(1.8) 

-2 

-2 

-3 

-2 

+2% 

+% 

+6% 

+2% 

+5 

+2 

0 

+10 

+1 

-5 

-3 

-4 

-2 

-9 

+4% 

+4 

+6% 

+11 

+3 

-5 

-2 

+8 

+10% 

+11 

+13 

-6 

-5% 

-9% 

0 

+2 

-1. 6 

-2. 6 

-3. 6 

-2. 8 

+1.5. 

+0.2 

+7.8 

+2.8 

+4.5 

+3.0 

+1.0 

+8.2 

+1.0 

-6.2 

-6.2 

-3.8 

-3. 8 

-4. 0 

-0. 4 

-8. 0 

+4.2 

+3.5 

+8.2 

+14.0 

+4.5 

-5. 4 

-0. 2 

- 2 . 

- 2 . 

+ 1. 

+ 1 . 

- 2 . 

+0. 

- 2 . 

- 1 . 

-3.2 

-2.6 

+10.2 

+10.2 

+11.2 

+15.4 

-7.0 

-5.5 

-7.5 

-7.8 

-9.0 

-0. 8 

+4.2 

(2.9) 

(1.9) 

(1.6) 

(1.7) 

(2.1) 

(4.3) 

(3.7) 

(2.4) 

(2.4) 

(2.1) 

(1.5) 

(4.2) 

(2.4) 

(3.5) 

(3.5) 

(2.6) 

(3.4) 

(3.3) 

(6.6) 

(3.1) 

(1.1) 

(1.5) 

(2.4) 

(6.6) 

(3.5) 

\i.i] 

-5. 0 (1.6) 

(2.5) 

(2.5) 

(7.5) 

(7.5) 

(2.5) 

(7.2) 

(2.5) 

(3.4) 

(2.1) 

(2.5) 

(6.5) 

(2.4) 

(1.3) 

(9.0) 

(5.5) 

(§:§) 

fi:! [li\ l 

-6 

.-5 % 

-6 

-6 

+1% 

-2% 

+4% 

+1 

+3 

+% 

0 

+6% 

+% 

-9% 

-9% 

-6 

(2.1) 

(8.1) 

-5% 

-3% 

-5% 

-5% 

-5% 

-4 

-4 

-5% 

-4% 

-5 

-5 

-5% 

-5% 

+8 

+8 

+10 

+10% 

-15 

-10% 

-7 

-9 

-9 

0 

+% 

-5.2 

-5.5 

-6.1 

-5.7 

-5.0 

-3.5 

+2.9 

+1.2 

+1.1 

+0.1 

+0.3 

+6.0 

-0. 3 

-11.0 

-10.9 

-7. 5 

-3% 

-4% 

-6 

10 

+3% 

+4 

+6% 

+9% 

+1% 

-5.7 

-5.6 

-6.6 

-10.6 

+3.5 

+4.0 

+6.5 

+11.0 

+0.8 

-8. 8 

-6. 3 

-7. 0 

-6. 6 

-8. 1 

-9. 6 

-9 

-10 

-9 

-6 

-11 

-5. 1 

-8. 1 

+8.4 

+8.8 

+9.0 

+12.0 

-14.0 

-10.5 

-8. 5 

-9.8 

-11.8 

-0. 6 

+2.4 

BCD 1977 7 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 2. Cyclical Indicators: Average Timing at Peaks, Troughs, and All Turns— Continued 

Series title 

Peaks 

Median 

(1) 

Mean and 

standard 

deviation 

(2) 

Troughs 

Median 

(3) 

Mean and 

standard 

deviation 

(4) 

All turns 

Median 

(5) 

Mean and 

standard 

deviation 

(6) 

B7. Money and Credit-Continued 

Credit Flows: 

33. Net change in mortgage debt 

112. Change in bank loans to businesses 

113. Change in consumer installment debt 

110. Total private borrowing 

Credit Difficulties: 

14. Current liabilities of business failures (inverted1) © 

39. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans (inverted1) 

Bank Reserves: 

93. Free reserves (inverted1) © 

94. Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve © 

Interest Rates: 

119. Federal funds rate © 

114. Treasury bill rate © 

116. Corporate bond yields © 

115. Treasury bond yields © 

117. Municipal bond yields © 

118. Mortgage yields, secondary market © 

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans © 

*109. Average prime rate charged by banks © 

Outstanding Debt: 

66. Consumer installment debt 

*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 

*95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income ... . 

-12 

-9h 

-9% 

-10 

-85 

-4 

0 

-1 

-1 

0 

+3 

+3*2 

+7 

+1 

+6h 

-15.7 (7.4 

-11.0 (3.7 

-12.6 (8.4 

-11.8 (5.5 

-14.2 

-8.7 

-6.5 

-7.0 

(10.2 

(7.8 

(2.7 

(3.2 

(3.1 

(2.3 

(3.9 

(3.1 

(4.3 

(2.4 

(3.7 

(1.9 

+7.0 (1.6 

+2.5 (4.4 

+4.0 (6.0 

-5 

-2 

-1 

-5H 

-2 

+2 

+3 

+5 

+3* 

+2 

+2 

+2 

+16J*. 

+9 

+14 

+3 

+7 

-6.0 (3.7) 

-1.8 (2.9) 

-2.0 (3.7) 

-5.0 (3.2) 

+2.0 

-0.7 

+4.5 

+5.8 

+7.0 

+5.8 

+7.2 

+3.6 

+5.0 

+19.9 

+7.6 

+11.3 

(10.8) 

(1.8) 

(5.7) 

(4.4) 

(5.9) 

(5.5) 

(9.4) 

(3.8) 

(6.4) 

(17.5) 

(4.8) 

(5.2) 

+3.3 (2.0) 

+5.2 (2.2) 

+7.2 (1.1) 

-10 

-6 

-7 

-7h 

-6 

-2h 

- 1 * 

0 

+2 

+ 1% 

0 

+2 

+1 

+3h 

+4 

+4 

+5h 

+3 

+7 

-10.8 (7.6) 

-5.9 (5.6) 

-7.3 (8.4) 

-8.4 (5.7) 

-6.1 

-4.7 

-1.0 

-0.6 

+2.3 

+2.6 

+3.4 

+2.1 

+2.2 

+11.7 

+4.8 

+7.1 

+5.2 

+3.9 

+5.6 

•inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, its lower 

turning points are considered peaks and its upper turning points are considered troughs. 

2

This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the 

span. 

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by©, which appear to contain no seasonal 

movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. For complete 

series titles, including definitions and sources, see the series descriptions elsewhere in this supplement. NA, 

not available. CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. PCE, personal 

consumption expenditures. 

8 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 3A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability 

Part I. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes 

Monthly series Year and month l/C MCD 

l/C 

for 

MCD 

span 

Average duration of run 

(ADR) 

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 

1. Average workweek of production workers, mfg 

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 

6. New orders, durable goods industries, current dollars 

7. New orders, durable goods industries, 1972 dollars 

8. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars 

9. Construction contracts, commercial aod industrial 

10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars 

12. Index of net business formation 

13. Number of new business incorporations 

14. Current liabilities of business failures ® 

17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, mfg 

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (u) 

20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1972 dollars 

23. Index of industrial materials prices (§) 

24. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars ... . 

27. New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, 1972 dollars 

28. New private housing units started, total 

29. New building permits, private housing 

37. Number of persons unemployed 

40. Employees in goods-producing industries 

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 

42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities 

46. Index of help-wanted advertising 

47. Index of industrial production, total 

48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments 

51. Personal income, less transfer payments, 1972 dollars 

52. Personal income, 1972 dollars 

53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction, 1972 dollars . . . 

54. Sales of retail stores, current dollars 

56. Mfg. and trade sales, current dollars 

57. Mfg. and trade sales, 1972 dollars 

59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars 

62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg 

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods 

66. Consumer installment debt 

69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 

70. Mfg. and trade inventories, 1972 dollars 

71. Mfg. and trade inventories, current dollars 

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 

73. Industrial production, durable manufactures 

74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures 

75. Industrial production, consumer goods 

76. Industrial production, business equipment 

78. Materials and supplies on hand and on order 

91. Average duration of unemployment 

96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries 

105. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars 

106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars 

910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators 

913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments 

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments 

915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing 

916. Composite index of profitability 

917. Composite index of money and financial flows 

920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators 

930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 

223. Personal income, current dollars 

320. Consumer prices, all items (u) 

322. Consumer prices, food 

330. Wholesale prices, all commodities (u) 

331. Wholesale prices, crude materials 

332. Wholesale prices, intermediate materials 

333. Wholesale prices, producer finished goods 

334. Wholesale prices, consumer finished goods 

340. Average hourly earnings of production workers 

341. Real average hourly earnings of production workers • 

441. Total civilian labor force 

442. Total civilian employment 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do .... . 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

1953: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

1953: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

1964: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

0.46 

5.54 

3.82 

3.77 

3.13 

9.99 

5.66 

1.05 

2.46 

25.51 

.68 

2.67 

5.60 

1.88 

4.82 

4.73 

5.40 

4.81 

3.76 

.56 

.33 

.35 

2.87 

.96 

.46 

.52 

.54 

.82 

1.18 

1.16 

1.07 

1.12 

.61 

.78 

.99 

1.72 

.46 

.68 

1.00 

1.45 

.77 

.92 

1.20 

1.11 

3.84 

1.69 

.33 

.39 

.87 

.73 

.67 

.68 

.62 

.78 

.79 

.79 

.69 

.33 

.54 

.49 

1.35 

.42 

.37 

.45 

.50 

.23 

.34 

.37 

0.40 

4.80 

3.28 

3.26 

2.62 

9.67 

5.36 

.78 

2.14 

25.00 

.49 

1.88 

2.69 

.32 

.15 

.25 

1.82 

.50 

.32 

.32 

.35 

.52 

.99 

.80 

.84 

.98 

.43 

.33 

.16 

1.35 

.20 

.21 

.35 

.82 

.45 

.59 

.64 

.36 

3.23 

.54 

.20 

.18 

.41 

.55 

.50 

.33 

.37 

.35 

.42 

.37 

.31 

.14 

.33 

.29 

.99 

.21 

.13 

.28 

.13 

.17 

.30 

.31 

0.18 

2.47 

1.67 

1.55 

1.42 

1.95 

1.70 

.70 

1.02 

2.33 

.39 

1.68 

1.63 

1.44 

1.71 

1.59 

1.95 

2.22 

2.24 

.42 

.28 

.22 

2.19 

.77 

.31 

.40 

.39 

.59 

.55 

.75 

.54 

.44 

.39 

.68 

.97 

.97 

.41 

.65 

.94 

1.08 

.58 

.62 

.98 

1.04 

1.73 

1.57 

.26 

.34 

.73 

.41 

.40 

.52 

.47 

.65 

.62 

.66 

.60 

.30 

.40 

.36 

.73 

.37 

.34 

.33 

.50 

.16 

.15 

.19 

2.18 

1.95 

1.96 

2.10 

1.85 

4.97 

3.14 

1.12 

2.10 

10.71 

1.25 

1.12 

3.27 

.74 

2.58 

2.72 

2.48 

1.84 

1.20 

.75 

.55 

1.14 

.83 

.65 

1.04 

.80 

.90 

.88 

1.81 

1.07 

1.55 

2.22 

1.09 

.49 

.16 

1.39 

.49 

.32 

.38 

.76 

.79 

.96 

.66 

.35 

1.87 

.35 

.77 

.52 

.56 

1.34 

1.24 

.64 

.79 

.54 

.67 

.56 

.51 

.47 

.84 

.81 

1.36 

.56 

.39 

.86 

.26 

1.06 

1.96 

1.65 

0.74 

.71 

.67 

.72 

.73 

.94 

.76 

.58 

.68 

( 0 

.66 

.65 

.81 

.74 

.84 

.88 

.89 

.99 

.59 

.75 

.55 

.57 

.83 

.65 

.55 

.80 

.90 

.88 

.71 

.59 

.89 

.86 

.58 

.49 

.16 

.69 

.49 

.32 

.38 

.76 

.79 

.96 

.66 

.35 

.95 

.35 

.77 

.52 

.56 

.74 

.61 

.64 

.79 

.54 

.67 

.56 

.51 

.47 

.84 

.81 

.76 

.56 

.39 

.86 

.26 

.55 

.69 

.86 

2.32 

1.95 

1.97 

1.87 

2.26 

1.59 

1.70 

2.27 

1.94 

1.49 

2.27 

2.37 

1.66 

3.00 

1.80 

1.80 

1.96 

2.07 

2.20 

3.75 

4.49 

2.44 

3.48 

4.11 

2.82 

3.31 

3.13 

2.97 

2.10 

2.58 

2.14 

2.03 

2.58 

3.75 

11.76 

1.99 

4.43 

7.26 

7.41 

3.79 

2.97 

2.87 

3.55 

5.11 

2.13 

6.09 

3.25 

4.26 

4.74 

2.42 

2.24 

3.63 

2.87 

4.43 

3.71 

3.67 

6.09 

6.31 

2.94 

3.16 

2.19 

4.74 

6.43 

2.71 

149.00 

3.10 

1.93 

2.19 

1.49 

1.58 

1.56 

1.56 

1.60 

1.49 

1.53 

1.56 

1.54 

1.45 

1.51 

1.66 

1.48 

1.54 

1.59 

1.56 

1.46 

1.52 

1.50 

1.52 

1.54 

1.60 

1.60 

1.56 

1.61 

1.54 

1.61 

1.54 

1.50 

1.49 

1.70 

1.43 

1.53 

1.53 

1.69 

1.63 

1.46 

1.59 

1.43 

1.59 

1.52 

1.59 

1.55 

1.58 

1.54 

1.56 

1.48 

1.70 

1.61 

1.83 

1.58 

1.57 

1.53 

1.56 

1.68 

1.55 

1.48 

1.52 

1.60 

1.56 

1.51 

1.52 

1.48 

1.50 

8.74 

9.74 

9.74 

8.74 

9.22 

9.47 

10.33 

8.12 

10.66 

10.03 

7.41 

8.12 

9.74 

7.77 

14.83 

12.63 

11.76 

12.18 

8.52 

11.37 

15.50 

16.24 

9.47 

12.18 

11.76 

16.24 

16.24 

12.18 

14.83 

11.00 

12.63 

11.00 

7.93 

14.83 

31.00 

13.38 

17.95 

22.73 

17.05 

9.47 

12.63 

9.47 

13.12 

13.38 

10.33 

12.18 

10.66 

14.21 

11.37 

6.69 

10.66 

6.82 

9.22 

8.52 

14.83 

16.24 

37.89 

16.24 

7.26 

8.74 

6.43 

11.76 

16.24 

8.74 

149.00 

13.55 

16.24 

16.24 

BCD 1977 9 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 3A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued 

Part I. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued 

Monthly series Year and month l/C MCD 

l/C 

for 

MCD 

span 

Average duration of run 

(ADR) 

MCD 

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued 

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over 

445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over 

446. Number unemployed, both sexes, 16-19 years of age 

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers 

448. Number employed part-time for economic reasons 

516. Defense Department obligations incurred, total 

525. Military prime contract awards in U.S 

548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products 

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments 

604. Exports of agricultural products 

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 

612. General imports, total 

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 

616. Imports of automobiles and parts 

721. OECD European countries, industrial production 

72Z United Kingdom, industrial production 

723. Canada, industrial production 

725. West Germany, industrial production 

726. France, industrial production 

727. Italy, industrial production 

728. Japan, industrial production 

732. United Kingdom, consumer prices (§) 

733. Canada, consumer prices (u) 

735. West Germany, consumer prices (g) 

736. France, consumer prices (§) 

737. Italy, consumer prices <§) 

738. Japan, consumer prices (§) 

742. United Kingdom, stock prices @ 

743. Canada, stock prices <§) 

745. WestGermany, stock prices <g) 

746. France, stock prices (§) 

747. Italy, stock prices <§) 

748. Japan, stock prices (g) 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

do 

1963: Jan-75: Dec. 

1955: May-75: Dec 

1953: July-75: Dec. 

1951: Jan-75: Dec. 

1968: Feb-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

1965: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

1965: Jan-75: Dec. 

....... do 

1953: Jan-75: Dec 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do ... 

do ... 

1951: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do.. 

do.. 

do.. 

do.. 

do.. 

do.. 

do.. 

do.. 

do.. 

1950: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

1949: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

4.75 

5.08 

6.37 

2.94 

4.33 

10.71 

19.95 

21.82 

5.59 

9.43 

5.66 

4.53 

10.45 

10.91 

.91 

1.19 

.90 

1.66 

1.67 

1.91 

1.76 

.61 

.39 

.45 

.79 

.58 

1.17 

3.29 

4.56 

5.93 

2.16 

3.91 

10.52 

19.83 

21.66 

5.26 

8.71 

5.24' 

4.08 

9.76 

9.90 

.88 

1.13 

.71 

1.33 

1.67 

1.72 

1.04 

.38 

.20 

.33 

.37 

.33 

.83 

2.57 

2.41 

2.53 

3.52 

3.04 

2.97 

2.84 

2.03 

1.84 

1.74 

1.58 

1.05 

1.97 

1.50 

1.33 

2.16 

1.41 

1.40 

.65 

.80 

1.32 

.51 

.34 

.37 

.66 

.48 

.74 

2.20 

1.65 

2.51 

1.87 

1.84 

2.89 

1.16 

2.25 

3.22 

1.24 

2.48 

10.05 

10.07 

14.41 

3.95 

4.02 

3.71 

2.92 

3.61 

3.73 

1.60 

2.62 

1.27 

1.55 

2.58 

2.14 

.79 

.73 

.58 

.89 

.57 

.69 

1.12 

1.17 

1.46 

1.01 

1.89 

1.65 

1.03 

0.61 

.78 

.75 

.63 

.84 

( O 

(O 

(O 

.84 

( i ) 

.78 

.98 

.89 

.84 

.84 

.98 

.59 

.75 

.95 

.76 

.79 

.73 

.58 

.89 

.57 

.69 

.61 

.68 

.99 

.62 

.74 

.73 

.62 

2.56 

1.82 

1.64 

1.99 

1.74 

1.53 

1.48 

1.56 

1.87 

1.85 

1.73 

1.88 

1.83 

1.73 

4.32 

2.89 

2.51 

2.02 

2.96 

2.16 

3.25 

5.98 

4.80 

8.84 

6.43 

7.75 

2.56 

2.60 

2.53 

3.08 

1.52 

1.46 

1.48 

1.45 

1.59 

1.53 

1.41 

1.52 

1.56 

1.63 

1.57 

1.66 

1.47 

1.65 

1.60 

1.59 

1.41 

1.39 

1.53 

1.58 

1.48 

1.54 

1.58 

1.71 

1.66 

1.57 

1.82 

1.73 

1.77 

1.86 

1.60 

7.58 

10.03 

7.41 

7.00 

7.03 

7.64 

9.84 

7.69 

9.47 

8.06 

12.45 

9.22 

8.06 

12.45 

21.62 

9.22 

12.63 

16.24 

16.05 

16.24 

16.24 

13.64 

11.00 

9.08 

14.83 

13.64 

8.32 

7.26 

9.22 

7.37 

8.32 

8.89 

7.26 

3.91 

3.53 

3.35 

3.81 

3.14 

2.05 

3.24 

5.32 

4.40 

3.25 

5.98 

4.80 

8.84 

6.43 

7.75 

3.86 

3.51 

3.91 

4.33 

©Measures are based on unadjusted data. 

1

 Not shown when MCD is 6. 

Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I 

The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and "T/C " is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally 

Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no T/C 

Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957). ratio is shown for the MCD period. 

"CI" is the average month-to-month percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted 

series (i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal, trading-day, and holiday variations). 

"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted 

series. 

"7" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the 

seasonally adjusted series. 

"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to 

observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In 

deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical 

component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 

12-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is 

the shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical 

component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, 

and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become 

dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as 

"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number 

of consecutive monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change 

between 2 months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for 

the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD 

curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted 

series. 

A comparison of these ADR measures with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of 

whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals, the expected ADR of a 

random series is 1.5, and the actual ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 

1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected ADR is 2. For example, in a 

series with ADR measures of 1.56 for CI, 1.45 for I, 8.71 for C, and 3.15 for MCD, the 1.56 for CI indicates 

that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as often as expected in a 

random series. The 1.45 for I and 8.71 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been separated 

into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.15 for MCD indicates 

that the MCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted data reverses direction, on average, about every 3 

months. Thus, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually reflect underlying 

short-term trend movements while month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not 

10 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 3A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued 

Part II. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes 

Monthly series Unit of measure Year and month l/C MCD 

l/C 

for 

MCD 

span 

Average duration of run 

(ADR) 

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 

2. Accession rate, mfg 

3. Layoff rate, mfg 

4. Quit rate, mfg 

21. Average weekly overtime, production 

workers, mfg 

Change in unfilled orders, durable 

goods industries 

Change in book value, mfg. and 

trade inventories 

Per 100 employees 

do . . .. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

25. 

31 

32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries <§) 

33. Net change in mortgage debt 

36. Net change in inventories on hand and on 

order, 1972 dollars (smoothed) 

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies 

on hand and on order, mfg 

43. Unemployment rate, total 

44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over . 

do 

Hours 

Billion dollars 

Annual rate, billion dollars 

Percent 

Annual rate, billion dollars 

do 

45. 

92. 

Average weekly insured unemployment rate 

Ratio, help-wanted advertising 

to unemployment 

Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, 

mfg. and trade 

Change in money supply (M1) 

Ratio, civilian employment to 

total population 

Change in sensitive prices (smoothed) ... . 

Billion dollars . 

Percent 

do . 

do . 

do 

1956: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: Feb-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

1955: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: May-75: Dec. 

1953: Feb-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

1949: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

Percent . .do. 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

93. Free reserves (§) 

94. Member bank borrowing from 

Federal Reserve (u) 

95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to 

personal income 

102. Change in money supply (M2) 

104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) . . . 

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) 

109. Average prime rate charged by banks <§).. . 

112. Change in bank loans to businesses 

113. Change in consumer installment debt 

114. Treasury bill rate (u) 

115. Treasury bond yields (§) 

116. Corporate bond yields (§) 

Million dollars . 

do . 

Percent 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

Ratio . 

Percent 

Annual rate, billion dollars 

do 

do 

do 

1948: May-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

Percent . 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

117. Municipal bond yields ® 

118. Mortgage yields, secondary market <u) . 

119. Federal funds rate ® 

940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index 

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 

451. Participation rate, males 20 years and over . . . 

452. Participation rate, females 20 years and over . . 

453. Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years 

of age 

do.. . 

Index: 1967=100 . 

Percent . 

do 

1949: Jan-75: Dec. 

1954: Aug-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

1948: Jan-75: Dec. 

do 

0.19 

.17 

.08 

.10 

.57 

4.94 

3.90 

1.83 

2.53 

.37 

.18 

.07 

.17 

.04 

.02 

.25 

.19 

.32 

137.05 

108.10 

.06 

.20 

.05 

.01 

.10 

4.20 

1.40 

.19 

.08 

.14 

.10 

.07 

.26 

.99 

0.16 

.14 

.06 

.09 

.53 

4.74 

2.68 

1.60 

1.11 

.35 

.13 

.05 

.09 

.02 

.01 

.24 

.17 

.19 

115.43 

81.16 

.03 

.19 

.03 

.01 

.07 

4.02 

1.29 

.13 

.06 

.12 

.09 

.03 

.17 

.61 

.17 

.23 

.76 .69 

0.07 

.07 

.05 

.05 

.17 

1.18 

2.55 

.65 

.12 

.11 

.05 

.14 

.02 

.01 

.03 

.08 

.20 

62.31 

61.12 

.05 

.04 

.04 

.01 

.09 

.80 

.48 

.12 

.04 

.07 

.05 

.05 

.20 

.70 

.06 

.07 

.22 

2.40 

2.08 

1.14 

2.00 

3.06 

4.03 

1.05 

2.46 

.59 

2.98 

1.14 

1.02 

.64 

.93 

1.67 

9.38 

2.24 

.91 

1.85 

1.33 

.69 

4.65 

.72 

1.11 

.69 

5.03 

2.71 

1.11 

1.48 

1.82 

1.71 

.62 

.85 

.87 

2.95 

3.19 

3.20 

0.94 

.78 

.53 

.65 

.86 

.86 

.64 

.87 

.59 

.76 

.57 

.52 

.64 

.93 

.94 

(O 

.77 

.91 

.66 

.77 

.69 

(O 

.72 

.59 

.69 

(O 

.96 

.66 

.71 

.76 

.75 

.62 

.85 

.87 

.86 

.80 

.92 

2.54 

2.60 

3.97 

3.45 

1.75 

1.55 

2.99 

1.86 

3.70 

1.66 

2.91 

5.59 

4.77 

2.73 

2.08 

1.59 

1.74 

2.94 

1.95 

2.10 

16.24 

2.49 

7.31 

2.67 

3.13 

2.19 

2.04 

1.85 

1.69 

1.66 

1.44 

1.56 

1.57 

1.44 

1.56 

1.48 

2.25 

1.47 

1.50 

1.59 

1.74 

1.56 

1.58 

1.54 

1.54 

2.19 

1.56 

1.52 

1.64 

1.52 

2.17 

1.50 

2.56 

1.59 

1.56 

1.75 

1.92 

1.70 

1.79 

1.87 

1.57 

1.60 

1.61 

1.52 

1.59 

©Measures are based on unadjusted data. 

1

 Not shown when MCD is 6. 

Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II 

These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative 

data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent. 

Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is 

computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. 

"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. 

" I " is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component 

from the seasonally adjusted series. 

All other measures have the same meaning as in part I. 

BCD 1977 11 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 3B. QCD and Related Measures of Variability 

Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes 

Quarterly series Year and quarter l/C QCD 

l/C 

for 

QCD 

span 

Average duration of run 

(ADR) 

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 

11. New capital appropriations, mfg 

16. Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars 

18. Corporate prof its after taxes, 1972 dollars 

34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars 

35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars 

49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars 

50. GNP, 1972 dollars 

55. PCE, automobiles 

61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment 

63. Unit labor cost, private business sector 

68. Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product 

79. Corporate profits after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj, current dollars 

80. Corporate profits after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj, 1972 dollars 

86. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars 

87. Nonresidential fixed investment, structures, 1972 dollars 

88. Nonresidential fixed investment, producers' durable equipment, 1972 dollars 

89. Residential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars 

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg 

110. Total private borrowing 

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 

200. GNP, current dollars 

213. Final sales, 1972 dollars 

217. Per capita GNP, 1972 dollars 

220. National income, current dollars 

224. Disposable personal income, current dollars 

225. Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars 

227. Per capita disposable personal income, 1972 dollars 

230. PCE, total, current dollars 

231. PCE, total, 1972 dollars 

232. PCE, durable goods, current dollars 

233. PCE, durable goods, 1972 dollars 

236. PCE, nondurable goods, current dollars 

237. PCE, services, current dollars 

238. PCE, nondurable goods, 1972 dollars 

239. PCE, services, 1972 dollars 

240. Gross private domestic investment, current dollars 

241. Gross private domestic investment, 1972 dollars 

242. Fixed investment, total, current dollars 

243. Fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars 

252. Exports of goods and services, current dollars 

253. Imports of goods and services, current dollars 

256. Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars 

257. Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars 

260. Government purchases of goods and services, current dollars 

261. Government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars 

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, current dollars . . . . 

263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars 

266. State and local government purchases of goods and services, current dollars . 

267. State and local government purchases of goods and services, 1972 dollars . . 

280. Compensation of employees 

282. Proprietors' income, with IVA and CCAdj 

284. Rental income of persons, with CCAdj 

286. Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj 

288. Net interest 

290. Gross saving 

292. Personal saving 

1953: 111-75: IV 

1948: 1-75: IV 

do.. 

do.. 

do.. 

do.. 

do., 

do., 

do., 

do.. 

1948: HI-75: IV 

1948: I-75: IV 

do 

do 

do 

do 

do 

1953: 111-75: IV 

1952: 111-75: IV 

1948: 1-75: 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

.do. 

..do. . 

..do. . 

..do. . 

..do. . 

..do. . 

..do. . 

..do.. 

..do.. 

..do.. 

..do.. 

..do .. 

..do .. 

..do. . 

..do. . 

..do .. 

..do. . 

..do. . 

..do .. 

..do.. 

..do.. 

..do.. 

..do.. 

.. do .. 

..do.. 

.. do .. 

..do.. 

..do.. 

..do.. 

..do.. 

..do.. 

8.66 

6.19 

6.03 

4.75 

4.55 

1.70 

1.23 

7.50 

3.05 

1.08 

1.11 

7.14 

7.17 

2.45 

2.25 

3.23 

4.39 

5.28 

10.33 

1.89 

1.03 

1.05 

1.95 

1.75 

1.13 

2.38 

4.53 

4.30 

3.75 

3.54 

2.73 

4.46 

2.89 

2.94 

2.11 

2.19 

.73 

3.91 

.91 

1.13 

1.43 

1.26 

.87 

6.50 

.42 

.39 

.37 

.43 

.41 

.46 

.46 

.47 

.42 

2.14 

2.07 

.45 

15.24 

.65 

1.31 

1.11 

.49 

.47 

.28 

1.15 

.94 

2.59 

1.02 

2.88 

11.29 

6.47 

4.70 

4.53 

3.67 

3.45 

1.39 

1.10 

97 

70 

93 

97 

14 

12 

04 

83 

62 

00 

12 

7.26 

1.81 

.97 

.89 

1.83 

1.72 

1.00 

.76 

1.63 

.94 

2.70 

2.44 

1.43 

1 

2.09 

3.45 

3.39 

2.63 

2.48 

2.61 

1.51 

3.16 

2.39 

2.48 

1.28 

1.91 

1.67 

1.62 

4.03 

3.41 

4.21 

8.20 

0.69 

.61 

.65 

.57 

.64 

.52 

.34 

.97 

.39 

.45 

.42 

.76 

.76 

.45 

.62 

.55 

.31 

.17 

.90 

.23 

.40 

.41 

.24 

.24 

.46 

.60 

.29 

.45 

.79 

.85 

.32 

.12 

.61 

.25 

.62 

.66 

.36 

.38 

.70 

.63 

.89 

.85 

.29 

.43 

.42 

.46 

.20 

.37 

.14 

.69 

.58 

.64 

.30 

.68 

1.38 

0.69 

.61 

.65 

.57 

.64 

.52 

.34 

.97 

.39 

.45 

.42 

.76 

.76 

.45 

.62 

.55 

.31 

.17 

.90 

.23 

.40 

.41 

.24 

.24 

.46 

.60 

.29 

.45 

.79 

.85 

.32 

.12 

.61 

.25 

.62 

.66 

.36 

.38 

.70 

.63 

.89 

.85 

.29 

.43 

.42 

.46 

.20 

.37 

.14 

.69 

.58 

.64 

.30 

.68 

.50 

3.03 

2.76 

2.63 

2.40 

2.40 

3.05 

5.38 

2.69 

4.04 

3.14 

3.70 

2.69 

2.57 

2.69 

3.23 

2.69 

3.42 

4.14 

2.02 

7.53 

3.90 

3.23 

6.65 

16.14 

4.19 

3.65 

8.69 

5.38 

3.05 

2.90 

8.69 

113.00 

3.42 

12.56 

2.76 

2.63 

3.90 

6.65 

2.90 

3.42 

3.05 

16.14 

5.95 

12.56 

2.90 

7.06 

2.90 

28.25 

2.63 

1.79 

1.23 

1.36 

1.35 

1.24 

1.28 

1.31 

1.36 

1.31 

1.29 

1.35 

1.38 

1.38 

1.36 

1.35 

1.33 

1.19 

1.33 

1.43 

1.40 

1.40 

1.47 

1.30 

1.24 

1.22 

1.22 

1.24 

1.33 

1.33 

1.23 

1.30 

1.30 

1.27 

1.24 

1.24 

1.24 

1.36 

1.35 

1.33 

1.38 

1.35 

4.14 

4.91 

4.91 

4.52 

4.19 

5.38 

8.69 

3.77 

5.65 

5.38 

6.17 

4.52 

12.56 

10.27 

6.65 

12.56 

22.60 

8.69 

6.65 

22.60 

10.27 

4.52 

4.19 

22.60 

113.00 

8.69 

22.60 

4.91 

5.95 

4.91 

1.24 

16.14 

6.28 

4.91 

5.14 

37.67 

18.83 

12.56 

4.52 

11.30 

4.52 

28.25 

5.38 

3.42 

12 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Table 3B. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued 

Part I. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes —Continued 

Quarterly series Year and quarter l/C QCD 

l/C 

for 

QCD 

span 

Average duration of run 

(ADR) 

QCD 

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Continued 

295. Business saving 

310. Implicit price deflator, GNP 

311. Fixed weighted price index, gross business product 

345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 

346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 

358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector 

370. Output per hour, private business sector 

501. Federal Government receipts 

502. Federal Government expenditures 

511. State and local government receipts 

512. State and local government expenditures 

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense 

618. Merchandise exports, excluding military grants 

620. Merchandise imports, excluding military 

651. Income on U.S. investments abroad 

652. Income on foreign investments in the U.S 

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding military grants 

669. Imports of goods and services, total 

1948: I-75: IV 

do.. . 

.do.. . 

.do... 

.do .. . 

.do.. . 

.do.. . 

.do.. . 

,.do .. . 

.do.. . 

..do.. . 

..do .. . 

1960: 1-75: IV 

3.18 

.90 

.86 

1.40 

.74 

.89 

3.20 

3.36 

2.48 

2.45 

3.46 

5.35 

5.42 

7.86 

6.73 

4.36 

4.38 

1.70 

.20 

.20 

.21 

.30 

.41 

.48 

1.37 

1.25 

.68 

.46 

1.12 

3.34 

2.41 

.87 

.82 

1 39 

.67 

.74 

.85 

2.75 

2.87 

2.41 

2.41 

3.18 

3.28 

4.17 

5.59 

6.23 

3.17 

3.67 

0.70 

.22 

.25 

.15 

.44 

.55 

.57 

.50 

.43 

.28 

.19 

.35 

1.02 

.62 

.93 

.41 

.74 

.53 

0.70 

.22 

.25 

.15 

.44 

.55 

.57 

.50 

.43 

.28 

.19 

.35 

.41 

.62 

.93 

.41 

.74 

.53 

2.63 

10.27 

10.27 

113.00 

5.14 

3.05 

3.05 

4.35 

3.77 

12.56 

16.14 

3.23 

1.97 

3.42 

1.97 

4.33 

2.60 

3.42 

1.33 

1.30 

1.36 

1.40 

1.41 

1.30 

1.27 

1.38 

1.38 

1.24 

1.33 

1.30 

1.23 

1.30 

1.23 

1.23 

1.23 

1.35 

5.38 

22.60 

16.14 

113.00 

12.56 

7.53 

6.65 

6.28 

8.07 

113.00 

37.67 

4.35 

3.82 

6.50 

3.82 

6.50 

5.91 

10.83 

2.63 

10.27 

10.27 

113.00 

5.14 

3.05 

3.05 

4.35 

3.77 

12.56 

16.14 

3.23 

3.76 

3.42 

1.97 

4.33 

2.60 

3.42 

CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment. 

IVA Inventory valuation adjustment. 

PCE Personal consumption expenditures. 

Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part I 

The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and 

Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic 

Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957). 

"CI " is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted 

series or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the unadjusted series. 

"C " is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted 

series. 

" I " is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the 

seasonally adjusted series. 

"QCD " (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to 

observe cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In 

deriving QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the cyclical 

component over 1-quarter spans (1st quartered quarter, 2d quartered quarter, etc.), 2-quarter spans (1st 

quartered quarter, 2d quarter-4th quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are 

then computed for the changes over each span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the average 

percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage 

change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at 

which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular 

movements. All series with a QCD greater than "3 " are shown as "4. " 

"l/C " is a measure of relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally 

adjusted series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of the period of QCD. When QCD is "4, " noT/C 

ratio is shown for the QCD period. 

"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is equal to the average number 

of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change 

between 2 quarters, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The ADR is shown for 

the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the QCD curve. The QCD 

curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the seasonally adjusted 

series. 

A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR of a random series gives an indication of 

whether the changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-quarter intervals in a random series, the 

expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of 

the time. Over 1-quarter intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 

2.0. For example, in a series with ADR measures of 1.63 for CI, 1.39 for I, 3.51 for C, and 3.27 for QCD, the 

1.63 for CI indicates that 1-quarter changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about as 

often as expected in a random series. The 1.39 for I and 3.51 for C suggest that the seasonally adjusted series 

has been separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.27 

for QCD indicates that the QCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted series reverses direction, on 

average, about every 3 quarters. Thus, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD moving average 

usually reflect underlying short-term trend movements of the series, while quarter-to-quarter changes in tlv 

seasonally adjusted series usually do not. 

BCD 1977 13 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 3B. QCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued 

Part II. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes 

Quarterly series Unit of measure Year and quarter l/C QCD 

l/C 

for 

QCD 

span 

Average duration of run 

(ADR) 

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS 

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of 

sales, mfg 

22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to 

corporate domestic income 

30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars 

58. Index of consumer sentiment <§) 

64. Compensation of employees as percent of 

national income 

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (u). 

81. Ratio, profits (after taxes) with IVA and 

CCAdj to corporate domestic income . 

82. Rate of capacity utilization, mfg. (FRB) 

83. Rate of capacity utilization, mfg. (BEA) 

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials . . 

107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml 

Cents 1948: 1-75: IV 

Percent 

Annual rate, billion dollars 

Index: IQ 1966=100.... 

Percent 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

Ratio . 

1966: 1-75: IV 

1948: 1-75: IV 

do 

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 

235. PCE as percent of GNP 

245. Change in business inventories, 

current dollars 

247. Change in business inventories as percent 

of GNP 

248. Nonresidential fixed investment as percent 

of GNP 

249. Residential fixed investment as percent 

of GNP 

250. Net exports of goods and services, 

current dollars 

Percent 

Annual rate, billion dollars 

Percent 

do 

1948: 1-75: IV 

do... . 

.do . 

.do . .do . 

251. Net exports as percent of GNP 

255. Net exports of goods and services, 

1972 dollars 

265. Federal Government purchases of goods 

and services as percent of GNP 

268. State and local government purchases of goods 

and services as percent of GNP 

283. Proprietors' income, with IVA and CCAdj, 

as percent of national income 

Annual rate, billion dollars 

Percent 

Annual rate, billion dollars 

Percent 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

285. Rental income of persons, with CCAdj, as 

percent of national income 

287. Corporate profits, with IVA and CCAdj, as 

percent of national income 

289. Net interest as percent of national income . 

293. Personal saving rate 

298. Government surplus or deficit, total 

348. Wage and benefit decisions, first year (u) . . 

349. Wage and benefit decisions, life of 

contract (§). . 

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit 

510. State and local government surplus 

or deficit 

622. Merchandise trade balance 

667. Balance on goods and services 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

.do . 

Annual rate, billion dollars 

Annual rate, percent ... . 

do... . 

do 

do 

1968: 1-75: IV 

Annual rate, billion dollars 

do . 

Million dollars . 

do . 

do 

1948: 1-75: IV 

do ... . 

1960: 1-75: IV 

do... . 

0.27 

.56 

4.20 

3.41 

.42 

.25 

.58 

1.71 

1.07 

2.41 

.04 

.47 

3.78 

.63 

.18 

.19 

1.47 

.22 

1.48* 

.32 

.13 

.23 

.06 

.48 

.07 

.74 

4.35 

1.86 

1.09 

4.46 

.96 

459.51 

474.28 

0.15 

.29 

3.03 

2.40 

.25 

.10 

.35 

.68 

.71 

1.09 

.01 

.32 

2.75 

.44 

.11 

.07 

.87 

.13 

.88 

.14 

.06 

.14 

.04 

.25 

.04 

.56 

2.35 

1.18 

.78 

2.68 

.66 

240.27 

305.46 

0.19 

.40 

2.65 

2.71 

.30 

.22 

.41 

1.44 

.90 

1.90 

.03 

.33 

2.48 

.40 

.14 

.17 

1.14 

.17 

1.12 

.28 

.11 

.17 

.05 

.34 

.06 

.44 

3.42 

1.17 

.63 

3.22 

.60 

374.88 

357.22 

0.82 

.73 

1.14 

.81 

.46 

.84 

.47 

.79 

.57 

.42 

.97 

1.11 

1.12 

.78 

.42 

.77 

.73 

.79 

.51 

.55 

.84 

.74 

.66 

1.29 

.69 

1.01 

1.23 

.83 

1.11 

.64 

.86 

0.82 

.73 

.49 

.81 

.46 

.84 

.47 

.79 

.57 

.42 

.97 

.46 

.45 

.78 

.42 

.77 

.73 

.79 

.51 

.55 

.84 

.84 

.74 

.66 

.49 

.69 

.44 

.59 

.83 

.42 

.64 

.86 

2.82 

2.90 

1.69 

2.69 

2.63 

2.46 

2.35 

3.53 

3.15 

3.05 

3.65 

2.22 

1.64 

1.92 

2.76 

3.42 

2.26 

2.69 

2.31 

3.32 

3.77 

3.05 

5.14 

2.69 

5.14 

1.79 

2.97 

1.74 

1.83 

2.46 

2.22 

2.10 

1.76 

1.36 

1.30 

1.35 

1.31 

1.30 

1.40 

1.21 

1.38 

1.35 

1,19 

1.33 

1.33 

1.30 

1.27 

1.23 

1.20 

1.26 

1.27 

1.36 

1.36 

1.31 

1.28 

1.28 

1.24 

1.26 

1.27 

1.38 

1.28 

1.27 

1.38 

1.33 

<§) Measures are based on unadjusted data. 

CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment. 

IVA Inventory valuation adjustment. 

PCE Personal consumption expenditures. 

Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part II 

These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for series with zero or negative "C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the seasonally adjusted series, 

data and for other series where it seems appropriate, such as series expressed in percent. 

__ "T" is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component 

Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the seasonally adjusted series. This average is from the seasonally adjusted series, 

computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure as the series itself. 

All other measures have the same meaning as in part I. 

14 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
II. SERIES DESCRIPTIONS 

COMPOSITE INDEXES 

Series 910. Composite Index of Twelve Leading Indicators (Includes Series 1, 3f 8, 12, 19, 20, 

29, 32, 36, 92, 104, and 105) 

Series 920. Composite Index of Four Roughly Coincident Indicators (Includes Series 41, 47, 51, 

and 57) 

Series 930. Composite Index of Six Lagging Indicators 

(Includes Series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, and 

109) 

Series 913. Composite Index of Marginal Employment 

Adjustments (Includes Series 1, 2, 3, and 

5) 

Series 914. Composite Index of Capital Investment 

Commitments (Includes Series 12, 20, and 

29) 

Series 915. Composite Index of Inventory Investment 

and Purchasing (Includes Series 8, 32, 36, 

and 92) 

Series 916. Composite Index of Profitability (Includes 

Series 17, 19, and 80) 

Series 917. Composite Index of Money and Financial 

Flows (Includes Series 104, 105, and 110) 

Series 940. Ratio, Coincident Composite Index (Series 

920) to Lagging Composite Index (Series 

930) 

Series 950. Diffusion Index of Twelve Leading Indicator Components 

Series 951. Diffusion Index of Four Roughly Coincident 

Indicator Components 

Series 952. Diffusion Index of Six Lagging Indicator 

Components 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

For a detailed description of the leading (series 910), 

coincident (series 920), and lagging (series 930) indexes—as well as the leading index subgroups (series 

913, 914, 915, 916, and 917)—see part III of this Handbook. Data for all of these indexes are available beginning 

with 1948. They appear under "composite indexes" in 

the BCD. 

SERIES 940 is computed by dividing the coincident 

composite index by the lagging composite index. Data are 

available beginning with 1948. The index appears under 

"composite indexes." 

930, respectively, which move upward over 1- and 6-

month spans. For series 3 (component of series 910) and 

series 91 (component of series 930) which are shown in 

inverted form in BCD, a decrease in value is an upward 

movement. The diffusion indexes show only the directions 

of change over the given timespan—not the magnitudes 

of change. For diffusion index purposes, half the components showing no change are counted as rising. Thus, the 

indexes are computed by adding the number of components moving upward to half the number showing no 

change and dividing by the total number of components. 

Data for the series 950, 951, and 952 are available 

beginning with 1948. In BCD, these series are analytical 

measures appearing under "diffusion indexes." 

EMPLOYMENT, HOURS, AND EARNINGS 

Series 

Series 

Series 

Series 

Series 

Series 

41 

40 

48 

21 

1. 

961. 

Series 963 

Series 340, 

Series 

Series 

Series 

Source. 

Number of Employees on Nonagricultural 

Payrolls, Establishment Survey 

Number of Employees in Nonagricultural 

Goods-Producing Industries—Mining, 

Manufacturing, and Construction 

Employee-Hours in Nonagricultural Establishments 

Average Weekly Overtime Hours of Production Workers, Manufacturing 

Average Workweek of Production Workers, 

Manufacturing 

Diffusion Index of Average Workweek of 

Production Workers, Manufacturing—21 

Industries 

Diffusion Index of Number of Employees on 

Private Nonagricultural Payrolls—172 Industries 

Index of Average Hourly Earnings of 

Production Workers, Private Nonfarm 

Economy—Adjusted for Overtime (in 

Manufacturing Only), Interindustry Employment Shifts, and Seasonality 

Percent Change in Average Hourly Earnings 

Index of Real Average Hourly Earnings of 

Production Workers, Private Nonfarm 

Economy—Adjusted for Overtime (in Manufacturing Only), Interindustry Employment Shifts, and Seasonality 

341c. Percent Change in Real Average Hourly 

Earnings 

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 

340c. 

341. 

THESE indexes—series 950, 951, and 952—measure 

the percent of the components of series 910, 920, and 

Data for the following series are all obtained from the 

establishment survey conducted each month by the BuBCD 1977 15 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
reau of Labor Statistics (BLS). An establishment is defined 

as an economic unit which produces goods or services— 

such as a factory, mine, or store. It is generally at a 

single physical location and is engaged predominantly in 

one type of economic activity. Where a single physical 

location encompasses two or more distinct and separate 

activities, these activities are treated as separate establishments, provided that separate payroll records are 

available. 

The primary source of data is State employment security agencies which collect data from cooperating employers via monthly "shuttle schedules." Data relate to 

the payroll period which includes the 12th of the month, 

which is standard for all Federal agencies collecting data 

on an establishment basis. For Federal Government establishments, data represent positions occupied on the last 

day of the calendar month. Noncivilian Government employees are excluded from this survey. 

Data cover the 50 States and the District of Columbia 

and include full-time, part-time, temporary, and permanent workers; workers who are on paid leave (sick, holiday, 

vacation, etc.); and persons who worked only a part of 

the specified pay period. Persons on the payroll of more 

than one establishment are counted each time they are 

reported. Persons in a nonpay status for the entire period 

due to layoff, strike, leave without pay, etc., and selfemployed and unpaid family workers are excluded. Basic 

data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency, using 

the ratio-to-moving average method. 

SERIES 41 measures the total number of persons employed in nonagricultural establishments. The industries 

included in the data are mining; construction; trade; 

manufacturing; general government; finance, insurance, 

and real estate; electric, gas, and sanitary services; other 

services; communication; and transportation. In BCD, this 

series appears under the economic process "employment 

and unemployment." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a coincider at both peaks and troughs and as a coincider 

overall. 

SERIES 40 measures the number of employed persons, in 

both permanent and temporary positions, who are either 

working full time or part time in the manufacturing, mining, and construction industries. Persons are considered 

employed if pay is received directly from the employer 

including paid sick leave, paid holiday, or paid vacation 

for any part of the specified pay period. Persons on the 

payroll of more than one establishment are counted in 

each establishment which reports them. Data are available beginning with 1945. In BCD, series 40 appears 

under the economic process "employment and unemployment." It is classified by cyclical timing as a leader at 

peaks, a coincider at troughs, and has no overall classification. 

SERIES 48 measures the total number of hours worked 

by all nonmilitary employees in nonagricultural establishments. (See the description of series 41 for industries 

included.) Hours worked are computed separately for each 

industry and aggregated into a nonfarm total. Where data 

are lacking for individual industries, sources other than 

the establishment survey are used—primarily the current 

population survey for weekly hours. These data are adjusted to eliminate distortions due to holidays. The current 

population survey, conducted each month by trained 

Bureau of the Census interviewers, includes 47,000 

households representing 461 areas in 923 counties and 

independent cities, with coverage in the 50 States and 

the District of Columbia. The hours inquiry relates to activity during the calendar week (Sunday through Saturday) 

which includes the 12th of the month. 

Several other types of imputations are used in developing this series: 

1. Nonproduction-worker average weekly hours for 

all industries except manufacturing are imputed 

to be the same as production-worker average 

weekly hours. For manufacturing, an estimate is 

developed for nonproduction workers' weekly 

hours based on BLS wage surveys and disability 

studies of the Social Security Administration. 

2. For the transportation and communication industries, where data are available for only part of 

each industry, hours derived from the known 

part are imputed to the total. 

3. For finance, insurance, and real estate, where 

more detailed data are available on an annual 

basis than on a monthly basis, monthly estimates 

are adjusted to conform with the annual benchmarks. Employment data are derived from BLS 

establishment reports, and weekly hours data are 

developed from the current population survey. 

4. For the service and miscellaneous industries, the 

available BLS series (hotels and lodging, laundries, cleaning and dyeing, motion picture, and 

other services) have been supplemented with 

employment rates derived from the national income series and weekly hours from the current 

population survey. 

Data for series 48 are available beginning with 1947. 

In BCD, it appears under the economic process "employment and unemployment" and is classified by cyclical 

timing as a coincider at troughs and overall. It has no 

cyclical classification at peaks. 

SERIES 21 measures the portion of gross average weekly 

hours which is in excess of regular hours and for which 

overtime premiums are paid. Overtime hours are those for 

which production or related workers receive overtime com16 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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pensatlon because the hours are in excess of the straighttime workday or workweek during the survey period. Weekend and holiday hours are included only if overtime 

premiums are paid. Hours for which only shift differential, 

hazard, incentive, or other similar types of premiums are 

paid are excluded. 

"Production and related workers" include working 

supervisors and all nonsupervisory workers (including 

group leaders and trainees) engaged in fabricating, processing, assembling, inspecting, receiving, storage, handling, packing, warehousing, shipping, maintenance, 

repair, janitorial and guard services, product development, 

auxiliary production for plant's own use (e.g. power plant), 

and recordkeeping and other services closely associated 

with the above production operations. 

Data for series 21 are available beginning with 1956. 

In BCD, this series appears under the economic process 

"employment and unemployment." It is classified by 

cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, a coincider at troughs, 

and a leader overall. 

SERIES 1 measures the average number of hours worked 

per production worker per week in manufacturing industries. Data refer to hours during the survey week. Such 

factors as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time 

work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be 

lower than scheduled hours of a week for an establishment. Overtime hours cause average weekly hours to be 

higher. Production workers are defined under series 21, 

above. Data for this series are available beginning with 

1945. 

In BCD, series 1 appears under the economic process 

"employment and unemployment." It is classified by 

cyclical timing as a leader at both peaks, troughs, and 

overall. 

SERIES 961 measures the percent of industries (out of 

21) for which the average workweek of production 

workers rises over 1- and 9-month spans. Industries include both durable and nondurable goods industries. (For 

a complete list of industries, see table C2 in part I of 

BCD.) The diffusion index shows only the direction of the 

change over the given timespan—not the magnitude of 

the change. For diffusion index purposes, half of the 

components showing no change are counted as rising. 

Thus, the diffusion index is computed by adding the number of components with increased workweeks to half the 

number with unchanged workweeks and dividing the result 

by 21 (total number of industries). Data are available beginning with 1947 and are computed from basic data 

seasonally adjusted by BLS. 

In BCD, series 961 is an analytical measure classified 

under "diffusion indexes." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

SERIES 963 measures the percent of industries which 

post increases in employment over 1- and 6-month spans. 

The index is calculated from 172 unpublished seasonally 

adjusted employment series covering, in great detail, all 

payroll employment in the nonagricultural sector. The 

index shows only the direction of the change over the 

given timespan—not the magnitude of the change. For 

diffusion index purposes, half of the components showing 

no change are listed as rising. Data are available beginning with 1958. 

In BCD, series 963 is an analytical measure classified 

under "diffusion indexes." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

SERIES 340 reflects the level, after certain adjustments, 

of average hourly earnings for production or nonsupervisory workers employed in the private nonfarm sector. 

The index does not reflect actual amounts of hourly earnings but, rather, changes in the level over time with a base 

level of 1967=100. Earnings are regular hourly payroll 

expenditures (before deductions) and do not include such 

labor cost items as irregular bonuses, retroactive items, 

payment to various kinds of pension and welfare funds, 

and payroll taxes paid by employers. 

The index is based on average hourly earnings obtained 

from the establishment survey. It is adjusted to exclude 

the effects of fluctuations in overtime premiums (in manufacturing only), employment shifts between low- and 

high-wage industries, and normal seasonal variations. The 

index is constructed by weighting the average hourly earnings in each industry (at the 3-digit level of detail, as 

defined in the Standard Industrial Classification Manual) 

by the hours existing in that industry in 1967. The 

weighted average for that month is then compared with 

the 1967 level of earnings. Although monthly data are not 

available prior to 1964, annual averages have been computed from 1947 to 1963 (using the 1-digit SIC level of 

industry detail). 

In BCD, series 340 appears under the economic process 

"wages and productivity." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

Series 340c measures rate of change in series 340 

over 1- and 6-month spans. Changes over 1-month spans 

are shown at monthly rate in the tables and are charted 

at simple annual rate; changes over 6-month spans are 

at annual rate. Data are available beginning with 1964. In 

BCD, this series appears under the economic process 

"wages and productivity." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

SERIES 341 reflects the level of average hourly earnings 

for production or nonsupervisory workers employed in the 

private nonfarm sector (series 340, above) after deflation 

to constant (1967) dollars. Average hourly earnings for 

each industry are deflated separately using the seasonally 

adjusted consumer price index (CPI) for all items. The 

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CPI measures price changes in the total of goods and 

services purchased by urban single and family wage 

earners and clerical workers. Basic unadjusted data for 

the price index are published by BLS, which also provides 

the seasonal adjustment factors used to adjust the index. 

Deflated average hourly earnings for each industry are 

combined into an index, as described in series 340, above. 

Monthly data are available beginning with 1964, with 

annual averages available from 1947 to 1963. In BCD, 

series 341 appears under the economic process "wages 

and productivity." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

Series 341c measures rates of change in series 341 

over 1- and 6-month spans. Changes over 1-month spans 

are shown at monthly rate in the tables and are charted 

at simple annual rate; changes over 6-month spans are 

at annual rate. Data are available beginning with 1964. In 

BCD, series 341c appears under the economic process 

"wages and productivity." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

LABOR TURNOVER 

Series 2. Accession Rate, Manufacturing 

Series 3. Layoff Rate, Manufacturing 

Series 4. Quit Rate, Manufacturing 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Total accession rate, layoff rate, and quit rate are three 

components of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data 

on labor turnover in manufacturing establishments. The 

data relate to full months and cover the 50 States and the 

District of Columbia. They are expressed as monthly rates 

per 100 employees; i.e., the number of accessions, layoffs, or quits in reporting firms divided by employment in 

those firms, multiplied by 100. Data collection is primarily 

at the State level via "shuttle schedules" mailed to State 

employment security agencies by cooperating employers. 

The respondent reports the number of accessions, layoffs, 

and quits during the month and total employment. Turnover figures represent the total number for the entire 

month. Employment figures, which are the bases used to 

compute the rates, represent the number of persons who 

worked or received pay for any part of the pay period 

(usually 1 week) which includes the 12th of the month. 

The State agency uses the information provided on the 

schedule to develop turnover rates for the State and 

metropolitan areas and forwards the data to Washington 

where they are used by BLS to prepare rates at the national level. The series shown in BCD are seasonally adjusted by BLS by the ratio-to-moving-average method. Data 

are available beginning with 1945. 

SERIES 2 measures monthly additions to employment 

rolls. Accessions include all permanent and temporary 

additions to the employment rolls, whether the employees 

are new or rehired persons. Since January 1959, accessions data have included transfers between establishments 

of the same company. 

In BCD, series 2 appears under the economic process 

"employment and unemployment." It is classified by 

cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 3 measures tne rate of monthly employer-initiated 

suspensions from pay status which last, or are expected 

to last, more than 7 consecutive calendar days. Such 

suspensions are without prejudice to the worker and are 

due to lack of orders, model changeover, termination of 

seasonal or temporary employment, inventory taking, introduction of labor-saving devices, plant breakdown, 

shortage of materials, etc. 

In BCD, series 3 appears under the economic process 

"employment and unemployment." It is inversely related 

to general business fluctuations and is classified by 

cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 4 measures the rate of terminations of employment initiated by employees for any reason except retirement, transfer to another establishment of the same firm, 

or service in the Armed Forces. Also included as quits are 

persons who fail to report after being hired (if previously 

counted as accessions) and unauthorized absences which, 

on the last day of the month, have lasted more than 7 

consecutive calendar days. 

In BCD, series 4 appears under the economic process 

"employment and unemployment." It is classified by 

cyclical timing as a leader at peaks and a lagger at 

troughs. It has no overall cyclical classification. 

INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT 

Series 5. Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs 

Series 45. Average . Weekly . Insured . Unemployment 

Rate, State Programs 

Series 962. Diffusion Index of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs—47 

Areas 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment Training 

Administration 

Insured unemployment represents the number of persons reporting at least 1 week of unemployment under a 

State unemployment insurance program. It includes some 

persons who are working part time and thus would be 

counted as employed in the payroll and household surveys. 

Excluded are persons who have exhausted their benefit 

18 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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rights and workers who have not earned rights to unemployment insurance. At present, persons engaged in agriculture, domestic service, unpaid family work, selected 

nonprofit organizations, some State and local government 

activities, and self-employment generally are excluded. 

A covered worker, upon becoming unemployed, files an 

initial claim to establish the starting date for any unemployment compensation which may result if he is unemployed for 1 week or longer. The insured unemployment 

figure is derived by adjusting the number of weeks of 

unemployment and the time the claim is filed so that the 

derived series refers to the week in which unemployment 

actually occurred. Monthly averages for weekly data are 

adjusted for split weeks on the basis of a 5-day week; 

i.e., 20 percent of the total figure for a split week is estimated for each day of the month in question that falls in 

the split week and added to the sum of the full weeks for 

the month. This final sum is divided by the number of full 

weeks plus the pertinent fractional portion(s) of the split 

week(s). 

Initial claims for unemployment insurance represent 

first claims filed by workers for unemployment compensation upon becoming newly unemployed or for a second 

or subsequent period of unemployment in the same benefit year. A benefit year is a 12-month period during which 

an eligible worker's annual benefits may be received. Since 

July 1949, transitional claims (claims filed by persons 

already in a claimant status for determination of benefit 

rights in a new benefit year) have been excluded. 

The data are collected by the Employment Training 

Administration in weekly reports from the State Employment Security Agencies in the 50 States, Puerto Rico, the 

Virgin Islands, and the District of Columbia. Data from 

Puerto Rico, however, are omitted from the series shown 

in BCD. Data are seasonally adjusted by the source 

agency. 

SERIES 45 is the number of insured unemployed expressed 

as a percent of the average covered employment in a 

12-month period ending 6 to 9 months prior to the month 

of reference. The monthly series shown in BCD is computed from weekly data as described above. Data are 

available beginning with 1949. Series 45 appears under 

the economic process "employment and unemployment." 

It is inversely related to general business fluctuations and 

is classified by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks and 

a lagger at troughs. It has no overall classification. 

SERIES 5 measures the average number of persons who 

file first claims for unemployment compensation per week 

in a given month. The monthly averages of weekly data 

are adjusted for split weeks as described above. Data are 

available beginning with 1945 and are measured in 

thousands. In BCD, series 5 appears under the economic 

process "employment and unemployment." It is inversely 

related to general business fluctuations and is classified 

by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, a coincider at 

troughs, and a leader overall. 

SERIES 962 diffusion index is based on the number of 

initial claims filed in a single week (that containing the 

12th of the month) in 47 labor market areas and is computed over 1- and 9-month spans. (The 47 labor market 

areas include: Bridgeport, Hartford, and New Haven, 

Conn.; Boston, Springfield, and Worcester, Mass.; Providence, R.h; Albany, Buffalo, New York, Rochester, and 

Syracuse, N.Y.; Newark, Paterson, Perth Amboy, and 

Trenton, N.J.; Allentown, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and 

Reading, Pa.; Baltimore, Md.; Birmingham, Ala.; Atlanta, 

Ga.; Louisville, Ky.; Detroit, Mich.; Akron, Canton, Cincinati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown, Ohio; Chicago, III.; Indianapolis, Ind.; Milwaukee, 

Wis.; Minneapolis, Minn.; Wichita, Kans.; Kansas City and 

St. Louis, Mo.; Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston, Tex.; Los 

Angeles and San Francisco, Calif.; Portland, Oreg.; and 

Seattle, Wash.) 

Since initial claims are inversely related to general 

business fluctuations, the diffusion index shows the percentage of components declining over the timespan. The 

data of the index reflect only the direction of the change— 

not the magnitude of the change. For diffusion index purposes, one-half of the components showing no change are 

counted as declining. Data for the aggregate series and 

for the labor market area components are seasonally 

adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data are 

available beginning with 1952 for 1-month spans and 

with 1953 for 9-month spans. 

In BCD, series 962 is an analytical measure appearing 

under "diffusion indexes." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

HELP-WANTED ADVERTISING 

Series 46. Index of Help-Wanted Advertising in Newspapers 

Source; The Conference Board; Metropolitan Life insurance Company 

Series 60. Ratio, Help-Wanted Advertising in Newspapers to Number of Persons Unemployed 

Source: The Conference Board; Metropolitan Life Insurance Company; U.S. Department of Labor, 

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

SERIES 46 is a measure of employers' demands for labor. 

It reflects the level of, as well as month-to-month changes 

in, the number of job openings resulting from vacancies 

in existing jobs or the creation of new jobs. Movements in 

help-wanted advertising also reflect supply positions in the 

labor market at an early stage of the hiring process and, 

therefore, provide an early indication of trends in employment and unemployment. The numbers of layoffs and new 

BCD 1977 19 

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hires are related to employers' decisions to increase or 

decrease production which, in turn, are reflected in the 

volume of help-wanted advertising. 

Data are based on the daily volume of help-wanted ads 

published in the classified sections of one newspaper in 

each of the 51 cities in the sample. (Prior to 1971, the 

sample included 52 cities.) Each city represents a major 

labor market area, as classified by the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics. The representativeness and coverage of the 

classified advertising for the particular area are the criteria used for selection of the newspaper within each city. 

Employment in the sample cities accounted for slightly 

more than half of total U.S. nonagricultural employment 

in 1971. 

Data for 1951 and thereafter are compiled by The Conference Board. The monthly advertising volume for each 

city is adjusted for differences in the number of Sundays 

and in the total number of days per month, seasonally 

adjusted using a method similar to the Census Bureau 

technique, and converted to index form (1967=100). 

Each index is weighted by the appropriate city's proportion of total nonagricultural employment in the sample 

cities, and the weighted indexes are combined into regional and national indexes. 

For the period from 1945 to 1951, the figures in BCD 

represent the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company's index of help-wanted advertising, adjusted to the level of 

The Conference Board's index by the U.S. Department of 

Commerce. This index is based on a sample of about 60 

newspapers and is constructed by chaining the median 

month-to-month percentage change in the unweighted 

returns of the reporting newspapers. 

In BCD, series 46 appears under the economic process 

"employment and unemployment." It is classified by 

cyclical timing as a leader at peaks and a lagger at 

troughs. It has no overall classification. 

SERIES 60 is a monthly measure of ratio of the number 

of advertised jobs available to the number of persons 

unemployed. It is computed by dividing the index of helpwanted advertising (BCD series 46) by an index (1967= 

100) of BCD series 37 (Total number of persons unemployed). Data are available beginning with 1948 and are 

expressed in ratio form. In BCD, series 60 appears under 

the economic process "employment and unemployment." 

It is classified by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks and 

a lagger at troughs. It has no overall classification. 

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND 

LABOR FORCE 

Series 441. Total Civilian Labor Force, Labor Force 

Survey 

Series 90. Ratio, Civilian Employment to Total Population of Working Age 

Series 42. Number of Persons Engaged in Nonagricultural Activities, Labor Force Survey 

Series 448. Number Employed, Part-Time Workers for 

Economic Reasons, Labor Force Survey 

Series 451. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, 

Males 20 Years and Over 

Series 452. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, Females 20 Years and Over 

Series 453. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, 

Both Sexes 16-19 Years of Age 

Series 444. Number Unemployed, Males 20 Years and 

Over, Labor Force Survey 

Series 445. Number Unemployed, Females 20 Years 

and Over, Labor Force Survey 

Series 446. Number Unemployed, Both Sexes 16-19 

Years of Age, Labor Force Survey 

Series 447. Number Unemployed, Full-Time Workers, 

Labor Force Survey 

Series 43. Unemployment Rate, Total 

Series 44. Unemployment Rate, 15 Weeks and Over 

Series 91. Average (Mean) Duration of Unemployment in Weeks 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 

These series are based on data collected in a household 

survey of the labor force. This survey is conducted each 

month by trained interviewers of the Bureau of the Census 

in its current population survey (CPS) and compiled for 

the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The survey sample includes 

about 47,000 households representing 461 areas in 923 

counties and independent cities in the 50 States and the 

District of Columbia. (Prior to 1960, Alaska and Hawaii 

were excluded.) The data relate to employment activity or 

status during the "survey week"—i.e., the calendar week 

(Sunday through Saturday) which includes the 12th of 

the month. The interviews are conducted during the week 

following the survey week. 

The labor force data in this survey relate to the civilian 

noninstitutional population 16 years of age and over who 

are classified as employed or unemployed. The civilian 

noninstitutional population excludes members of the 

Armed Forces and inmates of penal and mental institutions, tuberculosis sanitariums, and homes for the aged, 

infirm and needy. (Monthly data on members of the Armed 

Forces included in BLS statistics for the "total noninstitutional population" and the "total labor force" are obtained 

from the U.S. Department of Defense.) Data for all series 

are seasonally adjusted by BLS. 

Series 442. Total Civilian Employment, Labor Force 

Survey 

Series 37. Number of Persons Unemployed, Labor 

Force Survey 

SERIES 442 consists of all nonmilitary noninstitutional 

persons 16 years old or over who (a) did any work at all 

during the survey week as paid employees or in their own 

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business, profession, or farm, or who worked 15 hours or 

more as unpaid workers in a family-owned enterprise, and 

(b) were not working but had jobs or businesses from 

which they were temporarily absent because of illness, 

bad weather, vacation, labor-management dispute, or personal reasons, whether or not they were paid by their 

employers for the time off, or whether or not they were 

seeking another job. Each employed person is counted 

only once; those who had more than one job are counted 

in the job at which they worked the greatest number of 

hours during the survey week. 

The data include citizens of foreign countries who are 

temporarily living in the United States but not on the 

premises of an embassy. Excluded are persons whose only 

activity consisted of work around their own homes (such 

as housework, painting, repairing, etc.) or volunteer work 

for religious, charitable, and similar organizations. Data 

are available beginning with 1948. Series 442 is located 

in the BCD section "Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 37 comprises all persons who do not work at all 

during the survey week but made specific efforts to find 

a job within the previous 4 weeks (such as going to an 

unemployment service, applying directly to an employer, 

answering a want ad, being on a union or professional 

register, etc.) and who were available for work during the 

survey week (except for temporary illness). Also classified 

as unemployed are persons who, though available for 

work, did not work at all, and who were either waiting to 

be called back to a job from which they had been laid off 

or waiting to report to a new wage or salary job within 30 

days. Data are available beginning with 1948. 

Series 37 appears under the economic process "employment and unemployment." It is inversely related to 

general business fluctuations and is classified by cyclical 

timing as a leader at peaks and a lagger at troughs. It 

has no overall classification. 

SERIES 441 comprises the total of all persons 16 years 

old or over in the civilian noninstitutional population who 

are classified as employed or unemployed. Seasonally 

adjusted figures for the total civilian labor force are 

obtained by summing 12 components which have been 

seasonally adjusted separately, including employed and 

unemployed persons classified by various age and sex 

characteristics. Data are available beginning with 1948. 

Series 441 is located in the BCD section "Labor Force, 

Employment, and Unemployment." It is not classified as 

a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 90 measures the ratio of civilian employment 

(series 442) to the. total noninstitutional population, 16 

years and over. It is computed by dividing series 442 by 

total noninstitutional population and multiplying the result 

by 100, thus expressing the final series in terms of percent. Data are available beginning with 1948. 

In BCD, this series 90 appears under the economic 

process "employment and unemployment." It is classified 

by cyclical timing as a lagger at troughs. It has no cyclical 

classification at peaks or overall. 

SERIES 42, a component of total civilian employment 

(series 442), measures the number of persons employed 

in all activities except for agriculture. Data are available 

beginning with 1948. Series 42 appears under the economic process "employment and unemployment." It is 

classified by cyclical timing as a coincider at troughs and 

overall and has no classification at peaks. 

SERIES 448 measures the number of persons in the fulltime labor force who are employed part-time involuntarily 

because of economic reasons. Persons who worked between 1 and 34 hours during the survey week are designated as working "part-time." "Economic reasons" include slack work, material shortages, repairs to plant or 

equipment, start or termination of a job during the week, 

and inability to find full-time work. Data are available 

beginning with May 1955. Series 448 is located in the 

BCD section "Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 451, 452, and 453 measure civilian labor force 

participation rates. The civilian labor force participation 

rate is defined as the ratio of the civilian labor force to 

the civilian noninstitutional population. Thus, the series 

shown in BCD measure the ratio of components of series 

441 to comparable components of the civilian noninstitutional population. All of the civilian labor force participation rate series are located in the BCD section "Labor 

Force, Employment, and Unemployment." Data are available beginning with 1948. Series 451, 452, and 453 are 

not classified as cyclical indicators in BCD. 

SERIES 444, 445, and 446 are all components of total 

civilian unemployment (series 37) and are all breakdowns 

by age and sex. Series 447 includes all those unemployed 

who are seeking full-time work. All of these component 

unemployment series are located in the BCD section 

"Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment." Data for 

series 444, 445, and 446 are available beginning in 1948. 

Data for series 447 are available beginning in 1963. They 

are not classified as cyclical indicators in BCD. 

SERIES 43 measures the total number unemployed (series 

37) as a percent of the total civilian labor force (series 

441). Data are available beginning with 1948. 

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In BCD, series 43 appears under the economic process 

"employment and unemployment." It is inversely related 

to general business fluctuations and is classified by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks and a lagger at troughs. 

It has no overall classification. 

SERIES 44 measures the total number of persons who have 

been unemployed for 15 weeks or more (see series 91, 

below) as a percent of the total civilian labor force (series 

441). Data are available beginning with 1948. 

In BCD, series 44 appears under the economic process 

"employment and unemployment." It is inversely related 

to general business fluctuations and is classified by cyclical timing as a lagger at peaks and troughs, and as a 

lagger overall. 

SERIES 91 measures the average length of time in weeks, 

during which persons classified as unemployed had been 

continuously looking for work or, in the case of persons 

on layoff, since the termination of the most recent employment. A period of 2 or more weeks during which a person 

was employed or ceased looking for work is considered to 

break the continuity of the present period of seeking work. 

Average duration of unemployment is an arithmetic mean 

computed from a distribution by single weeks of unemployment. Data are available beginning with 1948. In 

BCD, series 91 appears under the economic process "employment and unemployment." It is inversely related to 

general business fluctuations and is classified by cyclical 

timing as a lagger at both peaks and troughs, and as a 

lagger overall. 

PERSONAL INCOME 

Series 223. Personal Income in Current Dollars 

Series 52. Personal Income, Total, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 51. Personal Income Less Transfer Payments, 

in 1972 Dollars 

Series 224. Disposable Personal Income in Current 

Dollars 

Series 225. Disposable Personal Income in 1972 Dollars 

Series 227. Per Capita Disposable Personal Income in 

1972 Dollars 

Series 53. Wage and Salary Income in Mining, Manufacturing, and Construction in 1972 Dollars 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Personal income measures the income received by persons, including transfers from government and business, 

but excluding transfers among persons. Individuals, owners of unincorporated enterprises, nonprofit institutions, 

private trust funds, and private health and welfare funds 

are all considered "persons" for this series. Personal 

income is the total of wage and salary disbursements, 

other labor income, proprietors' income (series 282), 

rental income of persons (series 284), dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments less personal contributions for social insurance. Most of the income is in monetary form, but there are exceptions, such 

as, the net rent of owner-occupied homes, the value of 

food produced and consumed on farms, and services 

furnished without payment by financial intermediaries. 

"Wage and salary disbursements" includes both the 

monetary payment to employees (including tips, commissions, bonuses, etc.) and payments in kind, such as 

food and housing, which represent income to the employee. "Wage and salary disbursements" differs from 

wages and salaries, as defined under compensation of 

employees (series 280), by including retroactive wages 

when paid rather than when earned. 

"Other labor income" consists of employer contributions to private pension, health, unemployment, welfare, 

and workmen's compensation funds; directors' fees; and 

several minor items. 

"Proprietors income" (series 282) and "rental income 

of persons" (series 284) are described as separate series. 

"Dividends" consists of the cash dividend disbursements by corporations to stockholders who are U.S. residents. 

"Personal interest income" measures the total monetary and imputed interest accruing to persons who are 

U.S. residents. It is the sum of net interest (series 288), 

total interest payments by consumers, and interest payments by government (including government enterprises) 

to persons and business less interest received by government. 

"Transfer payments" consists of income received by 

persons from government and business for which no services are currently rendered. Government transfer payments include payments under social security (including 

medicare), State unemployment insurance, railroad retirement and unemployment insurance, and government 

retirement programs; veterans' benefits (including veterans' life insurance proceeds); direct relief; payments to 

nonprofit institutions other than for work done under 

research and development contracts; and several minor 

items. Business transfer payments consist of corporate 

gifts to nonprofit institutions, consumer bad debts, liability 

payments to persons, and several minor items. 

"Personal contributions for social insurance" consists 

of payments by employees, by self-employed persons, and 

by persons participating in medicare programs. The programs included are social security, government retirement, and several minor social insurance programs. Data 

for all the personal income series, with the exception of 

series 227, are measured in billions of dollars, annual 

rate. 

THESE series 223 and 52, as described above, measure 

total personal income in current and constant dollars. 

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The deflator used to compute the 1972-dollar series is 

the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). From 1968 to date, data for the deflator 

are monthly; prior to 1968, the monthly values are obtained by interpolating the quarterly implicit PCE deflator 

by the movements in the consumer price index. The deflators, which are unpublished, are supplied by the National Income and Wealth Division of BEA. The deflated 

personal income series is computed by dividing seasonally adjusted personal income by the implicit price deflator and multiplying the resulting series by 100. 

Data for series 223 are available beginning with 1946; 

data for series 52 begin in 1947. 

In BCD, both personal income series appear under the 

economic process "production and income." Deflated personal income is classified by cyclical timing as a coincider at both peaks and troughs and as a coincider 

overall. Current-dollar personal income is not classified 

as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 51 measures the constant-dollar personal income 

received by individuals, unincorporated businesses, and 

nonprofit institutions, excluding transfer payments. Transfer payments consists of income received by persons, 

generally in monetary form, for which no services are 

currently rendered—both in government and in business. 

Government transfer payments consists of payments under 

social security (including medicare), State unemployment 

insurance, government retirement programs, veterans' 

benefits (including veterans' life insurance proceeds), 

direct relief, food stamps, payments to nonprofit institutions other than for work done under research and development contracts, and a few other minor items. Business 

transfer payments comprise corporate gifts to nonprofit 

institutions, consumer bad debts, liability payments to 

persons, and a few other minor payments. The 1972-dollar series is deflated in the same way as series 52, above. 

In BCD, series 51 appears under the economic process 

"production and income." It is classified by cyclical timing as a coincider at peaks, troughs, and overall. Data are 

available beginning with 1947. 

SERIES 224 and 225 measure the portion of total personal income which is available for spending or saving. 

Thus, disposable personal income is equal to personal 

income less personal tax and nontax payments to general 

government. Personal tax and nontax payments are the 

payments by individuals to government which are not 

deductible as expense of business operations. Taxes include income taxes, property taxes, estate and gift taxes, 

and motor vehicle licenses. Nontaxes include passport 

fees, fines, donations, penalties, and tuition and hospital 

fees paid to schools and hospitals operated by State and 

local governments. Tax refunds are deducted from payments at the time of refund. 

The 1972-dollar series (series 225) is computed by 

deflating the current-dollar series (series 224) by the 

implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. 

In BCD, these series appear under the category "GNP 

and personal income." They are not classified as cyclical 

indicators. Data are available beginning with 1946. 

SERIES 227 is computed by dividing constant-dollar disposable personal income (series 225) by the total U.S. 

population, including the Armed Forces overseas. Residents of the 50 States and the District of Columbia are 

included; but residents of Puerto Rico, residents of the 

outlying areas under U.S. sovereignty or jurisdiction, and 

other American citizens living overseas are not. Members 

of the Armed Forces stationed in foreign countries and in 

the outlying areas are included, although dependents living with them are not. 

Population estimates for the first of each month are 

released by the Bureau of the Census. A mid-quarter population estimate is obtained by averaging the estimates for 

the beginning of the second and third months of a given 

quarter. That average is then divided into the constantdollar disposable personal income data for that quarter to 

form series 227. Data are measured in thousands of 

dollars, annual rate. 

In BCD, series 227 appears under the category "GNP 

and personal income." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

SERIES 53 measures the labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction deflated by the consumer 

price index (CPI) for all items. The current-dollar series 

represents total wage and salary disbursements (excluding "other labor income") to workers in all commodityproducing industries except farming—i.e., in mining, 

manufacturing, contract construction, forestry, fisheries, 

and agricultural services. Mining, manufacturing, and 

contract construction account for approximately 99 percent of the total. Wage and salary disbursements include 

executives' compensation, commissions, tips, bonuses, 

and payments in kind which represent income to the 

recipients. Retroactive wages are counted when paid 

rather than when earned. Employer contributions to social 

insurance and to private pension, health, welfare, and 

workmen's compensation funds; compensation for injuries; directors' fees; and a few other minor items of 

taxable income are excluded. 

The consumer price index for all items (BCD 320) 

measures the price changes in the total of goods and 

services purchased by urban single and family wage 

earners and clerical workers to maintain their standard 

of living. All taxes (sales, excise, real estate, etc.) directly 

associated with the purchase and continued ownership 

of an item are included in the price. Income and other 

personal taxes not associated with prices of specific 

BCD 1977 23 

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goods are excluded. The index measures only prices and 

does not take into account changes due to quantity or 

quality of items purchased. 

Basic unadjusted data for the consumer price index 

are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

The deflated (1972 dollars) series shown in BCD is 

computed by dividing the seasonally adjusted series on 

wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction by the seasonally adjusted CPI and multiplying 

the resulting series by 100. The series is measured in 

billions of dollars at annual rate and is available beginning with 1946. 

In BCD, deflated wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction appears under the economic 

process "production and income." It is classified by 

cyclical timing as a coincider at both peaks and troughs 

and as a coincider overall. 

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 

Series 47. Index of Industrial Production, Total 

Series 966. Diffusion Index of Industrial Production— 

24 Industries 

Series 73. Index of Industrial Production, Durable 

Manufactures 

Series 74. Index of Industrial Production, Nondurable 

Manufactures 

Series 76. Index of Industrial Production, Business 

Equipment 

Series 75. Index of Industrial Production, Consumer 

Goods 

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System 

The index of industrial production is designed to measure the monthly changes in the industrial production of the 

Nation. The movement of the index reflects the changes 

in manufacturing, mining, and gas and electric utility 

industries. The index does not cover production on farms, 

in the construction industry, in transportation, or in 

various trade and service industries. The index includes 

production at Government-owned-and-operated plants and 

shipyards. 

The index, based on 1967=100, is compiled and published monthly by the Board of Governors of the Federal 

Reserve System and is based on data supplied by government agencies and by various trade organizations. It 

combines 235 individual output series with value-added 

weights to create the total index of industrial production. 

The methods applied involve: (1) Calculating the levels 

in each output series into relatives, with the average for 

the base period (1967) as 100; (2) multiplying each series 

of relatives by a base-year weight factor, and (3) adding 

the products (relatives multiplied by weights) for any one 

month to obtain the index number for the month. The 

weights used are based on value added by manufacturers—the difference between the value of production and 

the cost of materials or supplies consumed—in individual 

industries for selected base years. To obtain the historical 

series, base- and weight-years which coincide with the 

quinquennial censuses of manufactures are linked at 

January of the initial year. However, in 1963 the aggregates are linked at the annual average because of the 

introduction of kilowatt-hour data. 

Components of the index are adjusted for two kinds of 

short-term recurring fluctuation: for differences in the 

number of working days from month to month and for 

seasonal variation. Seasonal adjustment is done by the 

Federal Reserve using the Census X-l l Method II; the 

market groups are subject to professional seasonal editing by the Board. Monthly data for these series are generally available beginning with 1954, with the total and 

some large aggregations going back to 1919. A few new 

series begin in 1967. 

SERIES 47 is formed from 235 component series covering all stages of the manufacturing, mining, and gas and 

electric utility industries. In BCD, it appears under the 

economic process "production and income." It is classified by cyclical timing as a coincider at peaks, troughs, 

and overall. 

SERIES 966 index measures the percent of industries 

reporting increased production over 1- and 6-month spans. 

Twenty-four industries are included—10 in durable manufactures, 10 in nondurable manufactures, and 4 in mining. (For a complete list, see table C2 in part I of BCD.) 

The data of this index reflect only the direction of change 

—not the magnitude of change. For diffusion index purposes, half of the industries reporting no change are 

counted as rising. Thus, the index is computed by adding 

the number of industries reporting increased production 

to half the number reporting unchanged production, and 

dividing the result by 24 (total number of industries). In 

BCD, series 966 is an analytical measure appearing under 

"diffusion indexes." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 73 is an index of the durable manufactures components of the industrial production index. Durable manufactures, in general, are considered to be those manufactured items with a life expectancy of 3 years or longer. 

Included in this group are primary and fabricated metals; 

machinery and allied goods; lumber, clay and glass; and 

furniture. 

In BCD, this series appears under the economic process "production and income." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a coincider at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 74 is an index of the nondurable manufactures 

components of the industrial production index. Nondur24 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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able manufactures generally are considered to be those 

manufactured items with a life expectancy of less than 

3 years. Included in this group are textiles, apparel and 

leather; paper and printing; chemicals, petroleum and 

rubber; and foods and tobacco. 

The industrial production index for nondurable manufactures appears under the economic process "production and income" in BCD. It is classified by cyclical timing 

as a coincider at peaks, a leader at troughs, and as a 

leader overall. 

SERIES 76 is an index of the business equipment components of the industrial production index. This group 

includes industrial equipment (building, mining, and 

manufacturing) and commercial, transit, and farm equipment. 

This series is shown in BCD under the economic process "fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a coincider at peaks and a lagger at troughs. It 

is unclassified overall. 

THIS series 75 is an index of the consumer goods components of the industrial production index. Consumer 

goods include durable consumer goods (automotive products and home goods) as well as nondurable consumer 

goods (clothing and consumer staples). 

In BCD, series 75 appears under the economic process 

"consumption, trade, orders, and deliveries." It is classified by cyclical timing as a coincider at peaks, a leader 

at troughs, and a coincider overall. 

GOODS OUTPUT 

Series 49. Value of Goods Output in 1972 Dollars 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

THIS series is defined as the sum, in constant dollars, of 

the final sales of goods plus the change in business inventories, or, alternatively, the constant-dollar GNP minus 

the final sales of structures and services. Goods output 

is part of the national income and product accounts. 

"Final sales" measures that part of the gross national 

product which is sold to the final users during the period. 

This includes sales of producers' durable equipment plus 

personal consumption expenditures, special estimates of 

government purchases (Federal, State, and local), and 

exports less imports of durable and nondurable goods. 

Sales of services and structures are not included. The 

constant-dollar final sales is obtained by dividing seasonally adjusted current-dollar GNP components by appropriate price indexes in as fine a breakdown as practicable. 

Seasonal variations are removed from the price series 

used. 

"Change in business inventories" measures the value 

of the change in the physical volume of inventories held 

by private business, both nonfarm and farm. 

Quarterly figures are measured in terms of billions of 

dollars, taken at annual rate. The seasonally adjusted 

series is derived by adding components which have been 

seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

In BCD, series 49 appears under the economic process 

"production and income." It is classified by cyclical timing as a coincider at both peaks and troughs and as a 

coincider overall. 

CAPACITY UTILIZATION 

Series 83. Rate of Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Series 82. Rate of Capacity Utilization, Manufacturing 

Series 84. Rate of Capacity Utilization, Materials 

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System 

The following series are all measures of capacity utilization—how well a firm, industry, etc., is realizing its 

output potential. Capacity utilization is a ratio (expressed 

in terms of percent) of actual output to capacity output. 

The concept of capacity is based on the maximum output 

that can be produced during a given time period with 

existing plant and equipment and with a normal operating 

schedule. A normal operating schedule reflects the usual 

number of full-time hours per shift, shifts per day, days 

per week, overtime hours, vacation hours, and hours of 

downtime for repair and maintenance; it is assumed that 

supplies of labor and other input are unlimited. Based 

on this concept, "maximum practical capacity" varies 

among producing units according to technological requirements and custom, and may change overtime. 

FOR this capacity utilization series 83, BEA uses the survey approach. The survey asks manufacturers to report 

capacity utilization for the last month of each quarter. The 

survey form does not define the concept of capacity, but 

it is believed that most respondents use a measure of 

"maximum practical capacity." 

The coverage of the BEA survey is higher than that of 

most similar surveys. The 2,400 firms reporting in the 

survey account for 75 percent of gross depreciable assets 

held by manufacturers. Utilization rates published for 

industry and asset-size groups are weighted averages of 

individual company rates. The published aggregates include durable and nondurable manufacturing and primaryand advanced-processing groups. 

Data are available beginning with December 1965 and 

are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. In BCD, 

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series 83 appears under the economic process "production and income." Because of its short duration, it has not 

been classified by cyclical timing. 

THIS series 82 is based on a derived measure of capacity 

utilization rather than on the survey approach. Basically, 

capacity output for a given industry is determined implicitly by trend- and level-adjusting the McGraw-Hill 

annual yearend level of capacity and a gross capital stock 

series. An average of the two series is taken to determine 

annual capacity which then is linearly interpolated between 

yearend estimates to obtain quarterly estimates. The 

capacity utilization then is determined by dividing quarterly seasonally adjusted FRB industrial production (actual 

output) by derived quarterly capacity output. Capacities 

for individual industries then are averaged using 1967 

value-added weights to obtain capacity for total manufacturing. The total manufacturing utilization rate is calculated as the ratio of manufacturing production to manufacturing capacity. Data are available beginning with 1948 

and are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

In BCD, series 82 appears under the economic process 

"production and income." It is classified by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks and a coincider at troughs. It has 

no overall cyclical classification. 

THE capacity utilization rate used for series 84 is a 

weighted average of rates for each of 96 materials series. 

The component series are based on a capacity concept 

similar to maximum practical capacity, and the utilization 

rates are determined by a method similar to that used for 

the FRB index for manufacturing (see description above). 

Data for the capacity utilization rate for total materials 

are available only beginning with 1967. Prior to that, the 

index for primary processing is used. The components 

included in primary processing are similar to those in total 

materials except that primary processing includes manufacturing only. Included are: Textiles; petroleum and coal 

refining; lumber; paper; industrial chemicals; rubber and 

plastics; stone, clay, and glass; and primary and fabricated 

metals. The major component included in total materials 

but excluded from primary processing is electrical power. 

Data are available beginning with 1948 and are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

In BCD, series 84 appears under the economic process 

"production and income." It is classified by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks and a coincider at troughs. It has 

no overall cyclical classification. 

NEW AND UNFILLED ORDERS 

Series 6. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries, in Current Dollars 

Series 7. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 96. Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders, Durable 

Goods Industries 

Series 25. Change in Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders, 

Durable Goods Industries 

Series 8. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders for 

Consumer Goods and Materials in 1972 

Dollars 

Series 24. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Capital Goods Industries, Nondefense, in Current Dollars 

Series 27. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Capital Goods Industries, Nondefense, 

Series 548. Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Defense Products 

Series 964. Diffusion Index of Value of Manufacturers' 

New Orders, Durable Goods Industries— 

35 Industries 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the 

Census 

The following series deal with manufacturers' new or 

unfilled orders. A new order is a communication of an 

intention to buy for immediate or future delivery. Only 

orders supported by binding legal documents (such as 

signed contracts, letters of intent, or letters of award) 

are included. The monthly series includes all new orders 

received during the month less cancellations. Reporting 

companies are instructed to include: (1) The sales value of 

orders for goods to be delivered at some future date, (2) 

the sales value of orders for immediate delivery which 

have resulted in sales during the reporting period, and 

(3) the net sales value of contract change documents 

which increase or decrease the sales value of the orders 

to which they are related if the parties are in substantial 

agreement on the amount involved. From the total of 

these items, companies are instructed to deduct the value 

of partial or complete cancellations of existing orders. 

Unfilled orders are orders received that have not yet 

passed through the sales account; that is, unfilled orders 

at the end of the reporting period are equal to unfilled 

orders at the beginning of the period, plus net new orders 

received during the period, minus net sales. 

While both new orders and unfilled orders are used in 

reviewing individual company reports for consistency, 

only unfilled orders are estimated directly in the tabulated totals. This is done for two reasons: (1) Many companies supply new orders data only for those activities 

with a backlog of unfilled orders and omit from new 

orders the value of shipments for goods delivered from 

stock or current production; (2) it preserves the identity 

between orders and shipments; that is, new orders is equal 

to the current value of shipments plus the change in unfilled orders. Therefore, the new orders series is derived 

directly from the shipments and unfilled orders series 

using the above formula. The series is not seasonally 

adjusted independently but is derived from seasonally 

adjusted shipments and unfilled orders series. 

26 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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In many nondurable goods industries and a few durable 

goods industries no unfilled orders data are tabulated. 

This is due to the unavailability of unfilled orders data 

from the respondents or to the fact that nearly all orders 

are shipped from inventories or current production. The 

best estimate of new orders for these industries is the 

value of current shipments and is so included in the tabulations. 

The constant-dollar new orders series shown in BCD 

are deflated by the appropriate wholesale price indexes. 

These price indexes measure price changes for goods 

sold in primary markets in the United States compared 

with prices prevailing for comparable commodities in a 

given base period (currently 1972). They are designed 

to measure "real" or "pure" price changes; i.e., price 

changes not influenced by changes in quality, quantity, 

shipping terms, product mix, etc. The term "wholesale" 

refers to sales in large quantities, not to prices received 

by wholesalers, jobbers, or distributors. All of the series 

shown in BCD have been seasonally adjusted by the 

source agency. 

SERIES 6, 7, 96, and 25, measure the value of durable 

goods manufacturers' new or unfilled orders, as defined 

above. Durable goods are defined as those items with a 

normal life expectancy of three years or more. Included 

in this group are primary metals, fabricated metal products, electrical and nonelectrical machinery, and transportation equipment. 

Series 6 measures the total value of new orders in 

these industries in current dollars. Series 7 is computed 

by deflating the seasonally adjusted current-dollar series 

(series 6) by the seasonally adjusted wholesale price index 

for durable manufactures. 

Series 96 measures the total seasonally adjusted current-dollar value of unfilled orders in durable goods industries. Series 25 is the month-to-month net change in 

series 96. 

Monthly data for all four series are available beginning 

with 1947 and are measured in billions of dollars. 

In BCD, series 6, 7, 96, and 25 appear under the economic process "consumption, trade, orders, and deliveries." Series 6, 7, and 25 are classified by cyclical timing 

as leaders at peaks, troughs, and overall. Series 96 is 

classified as a leader at peaks, a lagger at troughs, and 

has no overall cyclical classification. 

SERIES 8 measures new orders for durable goods (excluding capital goods and defense products) and for the four 

nondurable goods industries which have unfilled orders: 

Textile mill products; paper and allied products; printing, 

publishing, and allied products; and leather and leather 

products. Deflation is done separately for each of the 

industries included in this series, using appropriate combinations of wholesale price indexes. 

Prior to 1953, the deflation of durables was at the 

aggregate level using a fixed (1958) weighting of the 

wholesale price indexes for the 10 components. From 

1953 to the present, the deflation of new orders for durable goods was performed separately for each of the 10 

two-digit SIC industries included in the total and thus 

reflects current weighting for each of the components. 

From 1958 to the present, deflation of new orders for 

nondurables was performed separately for each of the 4 

two-digit SIC industries included. Prior to 1958, the deflation procedure was applied at the aggregate nondurable 

level using a fixed (1958) weighting of the wholesale 

price indexes for the four components. 

Data are available beginning with 1948 and are 

measured in billions of dollars. All components used in 

the computation of the series are seasonally adjusted. In 

BCD, series 8 appears under the economic process "consumption, trade, orders, and deliveries." It is classified 

by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs and 

overall. 

SERIES 24 and 27 measure the value of new orders received by a subgroup of durable goods manufacturers. 

Included are: 

1. Nonelectrical machinery—including steam engines and turbines; internal combustion engines; construction, mining, and material-handling equipment; 

metalworking machinery; special industry equipment; 

general industry equipment; office and store machines; 

service industry machinery; and miscellaneous nonelectrical equipment. 

2. Electrical machinery—including electrical transmission and distribution equipment, electrical industrial apparatus, other electrical machinery (household 

appliances and electronic equipment are excluded), 

and railroad equipment. 

3. The nondefense portion of communication equipment, shipbuilding and military tank vehicles, aircraft 

and parts, and ordnance. 

The current-dollar series (series 24) is seasonally adjusted by the source agency. The 1972-dollar series (series 

27) is computed by deflating series 24 by the seasonally 

adjusted wholesale price index for machinery and equipment. Monthly data for both series are available beginning 

with 1948 and are measured in billions of dollars. 

In BCD, series 24 and 27 appear under the economic 

process "fixed capital investments." Both are classified 

by cyclical timing as leaders at peaks, troughs, and 

overall. 

SERIES 548 measures the total value of manufacturers' 

new orders for defense products. Data are based on separate reports covering only the defense work of large 

defense contractors in the ordnance and accessories, communications equipment, aircraft, missiles, and parts, and 

shipbuilding industries. These defense products cover 

work for the U.S. Department of Defense and exclude 

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contracts for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Also included are the orders from foreign governments for military goods made through the U.S. Department of Defense. 

Data are available beginning with 1968 and are measured in billions of dollars. Monthly figures are shown in 

the tables in BCD; both monthly data and a 6-term 

(MCD) moving average are plotted in the charts. Data 

are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

In BCD, series 548 appears under the category "defense." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 964 measures the percent of industries which 

report increased new orders over 1- and 9-month spans 

The diffusion index measures only the direction of change, 

not the magnitude of change. The index is computed by 

adding the number of industries with increased new 

orders to half the number of industries with unchanged 

new orders, dividing by 35 (total number of industries), 

and expressing the result in terms of percent. Data are 

available beginning with 1947 and are computed from 

components which have been seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, series 964 is an analytical measure appearing 

under "diffusion indexes." It has no cyclical classification. 

VENDOR PERFORMANCE 

Series 32. Vendor Performance, Percent of Companies Reporting Slower Deliveries 

Source: Purchasing Management Association of Chicago 

THIS series shows the percentage of Greater Chicago 

Area purchasing agents who are experiencing slower 

deliveries in the current month compared with the previous 

month. It tends to reflect the volume of business being 

handled by the suppliers of these firms, with slower deliveries indicating a higher volume of business. However, 

slower deliveries may result also from shortages of 

materials. 

The survey is conducted monthly among 200 of the 

approximately 1,000 members of the Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (PMAC). On the basis of 

information supplied by the Chicago Association of Commerce and Industry, the PMAC sample is selected proportionally from 15 types of industry in the Greater Chicago Area as follows: Primary metals, 14 percent; food, 

12 percent; nonelectrical machinery, 12 percent; electrical machinery, 11 percent; fabricated metal products, 

10 percent; printing, 9 percent; chemicals, 8 percent; 

transportation, 6 percent; apparel and finished textile 

products, 3 percent; professional and scientific instruments, 2.5 percent; stone, clay, and glass, 2.5 percent; 

paper and allied products, 2 percent; petroleum and coal, 

2 percent; furniture and fixtures, 1.7 percent; all other, 

4.3 percent. 

Each month, respondents to this survey are asked to 

report whether deliveries are faster than last month, the 

same as last month, or slower than last month. Data published by the PMAC show the percentage of respondents 

reporting in each category. 

The series published in BCD shows the percentage of 

companies reporting slower deliveries and is computed by 

summing the published (PMAC) percentage reporting 

slower deliveries plus one-half the percentage reporting 

deliveries unchanged from the previous month. Data are 

available beginning with 1946 and are not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, series 32 appears under the economic process 

"consumption, trade, orders, and deliveries." It is classified by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and 

overall. 

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES 

AND SALES 

Series 65. Manufacturers' Inventories of Finished 

Goods, Book Value, All Manufacturing Industries 

Series 71 . Manufacturing and Trade Inventories, Total 

Book Value, in Current Dollars 

Series 70. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories, Total 

Book Value, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 31 . Change in Book Value of Manufacturing 

and Trade Inventories, Total 

Series 36. Net Change in Inventories on Hand and on 

Order in 1972 Dollars (Smoothed) 

Series 78. Stocks of Materials and Supplies on Hand 

and on Order, Manufacturing 

Series 38. Change in Stocks of Materials and Supplies 

on Hand and on Order, Manufacturing 

Series 56. Manufacturing and Trade Sales in Current 

Dollars 

Series 57. Manufacturing and Trade Sales in 1972 

Dollars 

Series 77. Ratio, Constant-Dollar Inventories (Series 

70) to Sales (Series 57), Manufacturing 

and Trade, Total 

Series 69. Manufacturers' Machinery and Equipment 

Sales and Business Construction Expenditures (Industrial and Commercial Construction Put in Place) 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the 

Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis 

The following series measure the inventories or sales 

of manufacturing, retail, and merchant wholesalers' establishments. Sales and inventories of nonmerchant wholesalers, contract construction, mining, transportation, communications, public utilities, services, finance, insurance 

and real estate, and farms are excluded. Manufacturers' 

inventories are reported by individual establishments at 

approximate current cost, if feasible; otherwise, at "book 

28 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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values." All manufacturing-associated inventories, regardless of stage of fabrication, are included. Goods held on 

a consignment basis by wholesalers are excluded. 

Manufacturers' inventories are reported to the Census 

Bureau and are benchmarked to the census of manufactures and the annual survey of manufactures. Estimates 

of retail inventories are compiled by BEA primarily from 

sample data reported to the Census Bureau and are benchmarked to the annual retail trade surveys. The data on 

inventories of merchant wholesalers' establishments are 

collected and compiled by the Census Bureau from dollar 

estimates reported by a probability sample of merchant 

wholesalers representing all kinds of business. There is 

no benchmark for this series; however, the sample is 

updated with the census of business data. 

Manufacturers' sales are equal to the value of their 

shipments. Shipments include receipts, billings, or the 

value of products shipped, less discounts, returns, and 

allowances. Shipments for export as well as for domestic 

use are included, as are shipments by domestic firms to 

foreign subsidiaries. Shipments from one establishment 

to another within the same company are included, but 

shipments of foreign subsidiaries are excluded. In the 

case of some aircraft and all shipbuilding, the "value of 

shipments" is the value of the work done during the 

period covered, rather than the value of the products 

physically shipped. Data are collected in the same survey 

as the data for manufacturers' inventories. 

Merchant wholesalers' sales include: (1) Sales of merchandise and receipts from repairs or other services to 

customers after deducting returns, allowances, and discounts; (2) sales of merchandise for others on a commission basis; and (3) local and State sales taxes and Federal excise taxes. These data are collected from the same 

survey as are data on merchant wholesalers' inventories. 

Retail sales include total receipts from the customers 

after deductions of refunds and allowances for merchandise returned by customers. Receipts from repairs and 

from other services to customers, sales for resale, and 

sales and excise tax are also included. Current monthly 

estimates of retail trade sales are prepared by the Census 

Bureau from a probability sample beginning with 1951. 

The sample has been updated periodically with the current 

sample selected from the 1967 Census of Business universe. Comparable data have been prepared by the Bureau 

of Economic Analysis back to 1946. 

Data for sales in all sectors are adjusted for trading 

days, length of calendar month, and seasonal variation. 

SERIES 65 includes all products on which the companies 

have completed processing and which are ready for shipment to customers. Stocks of goods bought for resale 

without further processing are also included. Data are 

available beginning with 1945 and are measured in billions of dollars. 

In BCD, series 65 appears under the economic process 

"inventories and inventory investment." It is classified 

by cyclical timing as a lagger at peaks, troughs, and 

overall. 

SERIES 71 , 70, and 31 are measures of the dollar value 

of inventories held by manufacturing, merchant wholesalers, and retail trade establishments. Series 71 is the 

total book value of inventories, as defined above. Data 

for the various components are combined into a single 

series by BEA. 

Series 70 is computed by deflating components of 

series 71 by appropriate wholesale price indexes. Manufacturers' inventories are deflated at the 2-digit SIC level, 

and wholesalers' and retailers' inventories are deflated by 

kind of business. The deflators are weighted averages of 

wholesale price indexes with appropriate lag structures 

based on information on inventory turnover periods developed from stock/sales ratios and survey data on inventory accounting practices. The deflation is performed by 

the National Income and Wealth Division of BEA. (Prior to 

1958, deflation was performed at the aggregate level using 

a lagged 4-month moving average of the wholesale price 

index for industrial commodities.) The deflators are seasonally adjusted prior to the deflation. 

Series 31 measures the month-to-month net change 

(at annual rate) in series 71 . Changes in book value of 

business inventories reflect movements in replacement 

costs as well as changes in physical volume. 

Data for all three series are available beginning with 

1948 and are measured in billions of dollars. Series 31 

is shown in the charts in monthly form as a 6-term (MCD) 

moving average. 

In BCD, series 71 , 70, and 31 appear under the economic process "inventories and inventory investment." 

Series 71 and 70 are classified by cyclical timing as laggers at peaks, troughs, and overall. Series 31 is classified 

as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 36 measures the month-to-month change in manufacturing and trade inventories and manufacturers' unfilled 

orders (excluding unfilled orders for capital goods and 

defense products). The components of the series are 

deflated separately and then combined. Monthly changes 

in the constant-dollar series then are computed. 

The constant-dollar manufacturing and trade inventories component is series 70, described above. Manufacturers' unfilled orders are defined in the New and Unfilled Orders segment of this Handbook. The unfilled 

orders data are deflated separately at the two-digit SIC 

level, using appropriate single or combined wholesale 

price indexes, beginning with 1953 for the 10 durable 

goods industries and with 1958 for the 4 nondurable 

goods industries. Prior to these dates, deflation has been 

done separately at the aggregate durable and nondurable 

industry levels using fixed-weighted (1958) wholesale 

price index deflators. 

Data for series 36 are available beginning with 1948 

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and are measured in billions of dollars. The series is 

computed from components which have been seasonally 

adjusted by the source agency. It is shown in BCD in 

monthly form and as a 4-term weighted (1,2,2,1) moving 

average placed at the terminal month of the span. 

In BCD, series 36 appears under the economic process 

"inventories and inventory investment." It is classified by 

cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 78 measures the value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies plus their unfilled orders 

for materials, including supplies and intermediate products. Inventory data are defined above. Manufacturers' 

unfilled orders measure the end-of-month dollar value of 

orders received by all manufacturers but which have not 

yet passed through their sales accounts. For series 78, 

unfilled orders data represent the total of construction 

and all other materials, supplies, and intermediate products. 

Monthly data are available beginning with 1953, are 

seasonally adjusted by the source agency, and are measured in billions of dollars. 

In BCD, series 78 appears under the economic process 

"inventories and inventory investment." It is classified by 

cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, a lagger at troughs, 

and a lagger overall. 

SERIES 38 measures the net change in series 78, described above. Since different methods of inventory valuation (LIFO, FIFO, etc.) are used, the aggregate of inventories for establishments in an industry may represent a 

heterogenous mix of prices. The changes in inventories 

from one period to the next are of greater significance 

than the aggregate levels in cyclical analyses, but they 

are affected by the same valuation problems. Series 38 

is computed by taking the actual change in series 78 

from one month to the next. Monthly data are available 

beginning with February 1953 and are measured in billions of dollars. 

In BCD, series 38 appears under the economic process 

"inventories and inventory investment." It is classified by 

cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 56 and 57 measure the monthly volume of sales 

of manufacturing, merchant wholesalers', and retail establishments. Series 56 is the current-dollar value of sales 

as defined above. 

Deflated data for manufacturing and trade sales (series 

57) are computed as follows by the National Income and 

Wealth Division of BEA: Manufacturers' sales (shipments) 

are deflated at the individual 3- and 4-digit industry level 

using appropriate wholesale price indexes combined with 

1972 product class shipment weights; wholesale sales are 

deflated by type of business using appropriate wholesale 

price indexes combined with 1967 Census sales weights; 

and retail sales are deflated separately by type of business 

using a combination of wholesale price indexes, consumer 

price indexes, and prices paid by farmers. The selection 

of price data and the weights for the component price 

indexes are based on sales by product line from the 1967 

Census. 

Data for series 56 are available beginning with 1947, 

for series 57, beginning with 1948. They are measured 

in millions of dollars. In BCD, both series appear under 

the economic process "consumption, trade, orders, and 

deliveries." They are classified by cyclical timing as 

coinciders at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 77 measures the ratio of the end-of-month constant-dollar value of stocks on hand in merchant wholesalers', retail trade, and manufacturing establishments 

to the constant-dollar value of total sales of these establishments. Construction, utilities, nonmerchant wholesalers, and other nonindustrial sectors are excluded. 

Series 77 is computed by dividing series 70 by series 

57 and expressing the result in ratio form. The ratio is 

computed after all adjustments for seasonal variation, 

trading days, and length of calendar month have been 

made to the component data. Data are available beginning 

with 1948. In BCD, this series appears under the economic 

process "inventories and inventory investment." It is 

classified by cyclical timing as a lagger at peaks, troughs, 

and overall. 

SERIES 69 represents the aggregate dollar value, at 

annual rate, of (1) manufacturers' shipments (sales) of 

nondefense capital goods and (2) new nonresidential construction put in place for private industrial and commercial use. 

The term "shipments" is defined above. The manufacturers' shipments component of this series includes the 

following industry categories: (1) Nonelectrical machinery 

—including steam engines and turbines; internal combustion engines; construction, mining, and material-handling equipment; metalworking machinery; special industry 

machinery; general industry machinery; miscellaneous 

nonelectrical equipment; (2) electrical machinery—including electrical transmission and distribution equipment, 

electrical industrial apparatus, other electrical machinery 

(household appliances and electronic components are 

excluded), and railroad equipment; and (3) the nondefense 

portion of communication equipment, shipbuilding, military tank vehicles, aircraft and parts, and ordnance. 

The other component of this series, "value of commercial and industrial construction put in place," is compiled 

by the Bureau of the Census from monthly progress 

reports from owners of a sample of projects in the 50 

States and the District of Columbia for 1968 to date, the 

37 States east of the Rocky Mountains for July 1962 

through 1967, and from data on value of contracts 

awarded (time phased using progress patterns) for the 

period prior to July 1962. 

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The components are seasonally adjusted by the source 

agency and, when aggregated, yield a seasonally adjusted 

total. Data are available beginning with 1953 and are 

measured in billions of dollars at annual rate. 

In BCD, series 69 appears under the economic process 

"fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a coincider at peaks, a lagger at troughs, and a 

lagger overall. 

RETAIL SALES 

Series 54. Sales of Retail Stores in Current Dollars 

Series 59. Sales of Retail Stores in 1972 Dollars 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the 

Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis 

THESE series measure the net sales of all establishments 

classified as retail trade according to the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Manual. Net sales include cash 

and credit sales, sales taxes, excise taxes, and finance 

charges, but exclude discounts, returns, and allowances. 

Also excluded are the retail sales of manufacturers, wholesalers, service establishments, and other businesses 

whose primary activity is not retail trade. 

A retail establishment is defined as one engaged primarily in selling merchandise for personal or household 

consumption- The term "establishment" refers to the 

physical location at which the retail business is conducted. 

Thus, a company or enterprise may consist of one or 

more establishments. If two or more activities are carried 

on at a single location, the entire establishment is classified on the basis of its major activity. 

The statistics on sales of retail stores are based on 

estimates derived by the Census Bureau from its monthly 

sample survey of retail establishments of all sizes and 

types throughout the country. These estimates are prepared directly from probability sample data and are 

derived by weighting the reported sales of each firm or 

store in the sample by a value dependent upon its probability of selection. Data are adjusted by the source agency 

for seasonal variation, holidays, and trading day differences. 

The 1972-dollar series (series 59) is computed by 

deflating the adjusted current-dollar series by combinations of wholesale and consumer price indexes. Deflation 

is performed by the National Income and Wealth Division 

of BE A. 

Data for series 54 and series 59 are available beginning 

with 1947 and 1948, respectively. Both series are seasonally adjusted. In BCD, both series 54 and 59 appear 

under the economic process "consumption, trade, orders, 

and deliveries." Both series are classified by cyclical 

timing as leaders at troughs and have no overall cyclical 

classification. Series 54 is classified as a coincider at 

peaks; series 59 has no classification at peaks. 

CONSUMER SENTIMENT 

Series 58. Index of Consumer Sentiment 

Source: University of Michigan, Survey Research Center 

THIS index is based on personal and telephone interviews 

(conducted quarterly) with a nationwide sample of approximately 1,200 to 2,000 respondents selected by multistage 

area probability sampling methods. Each respondent is 

asked the following five questions: 

"Would you say that you and your family are better 

off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? 

"Now, looking ahead—Do you think that a year 

from now you people will be better off financially, or 

worse off, or just about the same as now? 

"Now turning to business conditions in the country 

as a whole—Do you think that during the next 12 

months we'll have good times financially, or bad 

times, or what? 

"Looking ahead—Which would you say is more likely: 

That in the country as a whole we'll have continuous 

good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we 

will have periods of widespread unemployment or 

depression, or what? and 

"About the big things people buy for their homes, 

such as furniture, house furnishings, refrigerator, 

stove, television, and things like that. For people in 

general—Do you think now is a good or a bad time 

to buy major household items?" 

The answers received are grouped into three categories: 

1. Up, or better, or good 

2. Same, or no change, or uncertain 

3. Down, or worse, or bad 

The following formula is applied to each question: 

P« - PD + 100 

The proportion of "down" responses (PD) is subtracted from the proportion of "up" responses (PM) 

and 100 is added to avoid negative numbers. These 

five answers are then averaged (unweighted), and the 

average is then converted to an index in which the 

first quarter of 1966=100. Then 2.7 is added to the 

index. Differences in the index values exceeding 

1.3 points are significant on the one-standard-error 

level. 

The quarterly surveys contain many questions in addition to the index questions because the surveys place 

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great emphasis on the study of factors which make for 

changes in consumer attitudes and expectations. 

Data are available beginning with 1953 and are not 

adjusted for seasonal variation. In BCD, series 58 appears 

under the economic process "consumption, trade, orders, 

and deliveries." It is classified by cyclical timing as a 

leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

BUSINESS FORMATION 

Series 12. Index of Net Business Formation 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Series 13. Number of New Business Incorporations 

Source; Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 

THIS series 12 provides a monthly estimate of the net formation of business enterprises. There are no direct measures of the monthly change in the total business population. However, it is believed that this estimate, derived 

from the available information, adequately represents the 

short-term movement of new entries into, and departures 

from, the total business population. 

The estimate is based on component series as follows: 

1. "New business incorporations." (Source: Dun & 

Bradstreet, Inc.) This series measures the number 

of stock companies receiving charters each month 

under the general business incorporation laws of 

the 50 States and the District of Columbia. 

2. "Number of business failures." (Source: Dun & 

Bradstreet, Inc.) A business failure is defined as 

"a concern that is involved in a court proceeding 

or a voluntary action that is likely to result in 

loss to creditors." Firms which are liquidated, 

merged, sold, or otherwise discontinued without 

loss to creditors are not considered failures. Data 

are for 48 States and the District of Columbia. 

(Alaska and Hawaii are not included.) 

3. "Confidential data on telephones installed." 

The net business formation series itself is a composite 

index (1967=100) computed from these components, with 

the business failures data inverted. Data are available 

beginning with 1948 and are seasonally adjusted by the 

Bureau of Economic Analysis and the National Bureau of 

Economic Research. 

In BCD, series 12 appears under the economic process 

"fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 13 represents the total number of stock corporations issued charters under the general business incorporation laws of the 50 States and the District of Columbia. 

New incorporations include completely new businesses 

that are incorporated, existing businesses that are 

changed from a noncorporate to a corporate form of 

organization, existing corporations that have been given 

certificates of authority to operate also in another State, 

and existing corporations transferred to a new State. Data 

prior to 1947 cover only the 48 contiguous States. From 

1947 to date, Hawaii is included; from 1960 to date, 

Alaska is included; and from 1963 to date, the District 

of Columbia is included. 

Data for each State are collected from the Secretaries 

of State for the State governments. Some States voluntarily send data by mail or by telegram at the end of each 

month. For those that do not, data are collected by Dun 

& Bradstreet reporters. Data are available beginning with 

1946 and are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the National Bureau of Economic 

Research using the Census X-l l Method II. 

In BCD, series 13 appears under the economic process 

"fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

CONTRACTS AND ORDERS FOR PLANT 

AND EQUIPMENT 

Series 10. Contracts and Orders for Plant and Equipment in Current Dollars 

Series 20. Contracts and Orders for Plant and Equipment in 1972 Dollars 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the 

Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis; 

McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company 

Series 9. Construction Contracts Awarded for Commercial and Industrial Buildings, Floor 

Space 

Source; F. W. Dodge Division, McGraw-Hill Information 

Systems Company 

THESE series 10 and 20 measure the value of new contract awards to building and public works and utilities 

contractors and of new orders received by manufacturers 

in capital goods, nondefense industries. They are the sum 

of (1) value of commercial and industrial construction contracts, (2) value of contracts for privately-owned nonbuilding construction, and (3) value of manufacturers' 

new orders in capital goods, nondefense, industries (series 

24 for the current-dollar series, series 27 for the 1972-

dollar series): 

1. Data on commercial and industrial contracts 

measure the value of contracts for work about to 

get underway on commercial buildings (banks, 

32 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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offices and lofts, stores, warehouses, garages, 

service stations) and manufacturing buildings 

(e.g., processing, mechanical). 

2. Data on contracts for privately-owned nonbuilding 

construction measure the value of such construction as streets and highways, bridges, dams and 

reservoirs, waterfront developments, sewage systems, parks and playgrounds, electric light and 

power, gas plants and mains, pipelines (oil and 

gas wells), water supply systems, railroad construction, airports (excluding buildings), etc. 

3. Data on manufacturers' new orders measure new 

orders received by capital goods, nondefense, 

industries (BCD series 24). For a more complete 

description of this component, see the description of series 24 in the New and Unfilled Orders 

section of this Handbook. 

The construction contracts data (building and nonbuilding) are compiled by F. W. Dodge Division, McGraw-Hill 

Information Systems Company. Data cover new construction, additions, and major alterations projects; maintenance work is excluded. F. W. Dodge construction statistics are based on data essentially obtained from Dodge 

reports, supplemented by permit-place reports. The valuation figures contained in Dodge data represent, as nearly 

as possible, actual construction costs. Construction cost 

of a project is exclusive of landf architects' fees, and, in 

the case of manufacturing buildings, the cost of equipment which is not an integral part of the structure. Beginning with January 1969, data cover construction in 50 

States and the District of Columbia. In the period 1956-68 

data cover the 48 contiguous States and the District of 

Columbia; prior to 1956, the 37 States east of the Rocky 

Mountains and the District of Columbia are included. 

Seasonal adjustments are made on Dodge data by the 

Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

To obtain the 1972-dollar construction contracts data, 

(a component of series 20), current-dollar data are deflated by an implicit price deflator obtained by dividing 

the current-dollar value of nonresidential construction put 

in place by the constant-dollar value for this type of construction. Current- and constant-dollar values are obtained 

by subtracting the values for private residential buildings 

and public housing and redevelopment from the total 

value of new construction. 

Manufacturers' new orders are compiled by the Census 

Bureau and are deflated by the seasonally adjusted wholesale price index for machinery and equipment. (See New 

and Unfilled Orders, series 27.) 

To form series 10 and series 20, the values of the 

three components in current and 1972 dollars, respectively, are aggregated. Data for both series are available 

beginning with 1948, are measured in billions of dollars, 

and are computed from components which have been 

seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, both series 10 and series 20 appear under the 

economic process "fixed capital investment." They are 

classified by cyclical timing as leaders at peaks, troughs, 

and overall. 

SERIES 9 measures the area of floor space of new contract 

awards to building contractors. It includes floor space of 

contracts for work about to get underway on commercial 

buildings (banks, offices and lofts, stores, warehouses, 

garages, service stations) and manufacturing buildings 

(e.g., processing, mechanical). 

The data are compiled by the F. W. Dodge Division of 

McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company based on the 

data essentially obtained from Dodge reports, supplemented by permit-place reports. Data cover new construction, additions, and major alteration projects. Beginning 

with January 1969, construction in the 50 States and the 

District of Columbia is included. From 1956 to 1968, 

data cover the 48 contiguous States and the District of 

Columbia; prior to 1956, 37 Eastern States (those east 

of the Rocky Mountains) and the District of Columbia are 

included. 

Copyrighted data are available beginning with 1948 

and are used by permission in BCD. Seasonal adjustment 

is by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the National 

Bureau of Economic Research. In the BCD tables, data 

are measured both in millions of square feet and in millions of square meters. They are shown in the charts in 

square feet only and are plotted as the monthly series and 

as a 6-term (MCD) moving average. 

In BCD, series 9 appears under the economic process 

"fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a leader at peaks and a coincider at troughs. It 

has no overall cyclical classification. 

CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS, MANUFACTURING 

Series 11. Newly Approved Capital Appropriations, 

1,000 Manufacturing Corporations 

Series 97. Backlog of Capital Appropriations, Manufacturing 

Series 965. Diffusion Index of Newly Approved Capital 

Appropriations, Deflated—17 Industries 

Source: The Conference Board 

THESE series 11 and 97 measure funds authorized for 

capital expenditures by the thousand largest manufacturing firms. Data are obtained by a quarterly survey of manufacturing firms undertaken by The Conference Board. 

A "capital appropriation" constitutes authority to incur 

obligations for new plant and equipment, as authorized 

by the board of directors or president of the company. 

Appropriations for capital expenditure cover: (1) New construction, including both new buildings and plants and 

additions to or improvement of existing buildings and 

plants; and (2) equipment; such as, new machinery, motor 

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vehicles for business use, office machines, storage 

equipment, etc. Excluded from the survey, wherever possible, are appropriations for land, maintenance and repair, 

used equipment and buildings, construction and equipment outside the United States, and acquisition of existing companies. 

Series 11, newly approved capital appropriations which 

were approved during the survey quarter, reflects business plans that have already been passed upon by top 

management officials and, thus, is a barometer of business planning and expectations. 

The appropriations backlog (series 97) represents capital appropriations that were not cancelled or spent by 

the end of the survey quarter. Thus, the backlog at the 

end of the quarter is equal to the total outstanding at the 

beginning of the quarter plus new appropriations approved during the quarter minus appropriations spent 

during the quarter minus cancellations. 

Data for both series 11 and 97 are available beginning 

with 1953 and are measured in billions of dollars. Data 

are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. These are 

copyrighted series used by permission; they may not be 

reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. 

In BCD, both series 11 and 97 appear under the economic process "fixed capital investment." Series 11 is 

classified by cyclical timing as a lagger at troughs, with 

no cyclical classification at peaks or overall. Series 97 is 

classified as a coincider at peaks and as a lagger at 

troughs and overall. 

SERIES 965 measures the percent of industries which 

have reported increased newly approved capital appropriations (see series 11, above) in constant (1972) dollars 

over 1-quarter spans. It is shown in BCD in diffusion index 

form and as a 4-term moving average of this index. The 

1,000 firms included in The Conference Board survey are 

grouped into 17 industries—10 durable and 7 nondurable. The diffusion index is computed by adding the number of industries with increased appropriations to half the 

number of industries reporting no change and dividing by 

17. It reflects only the direction of change, not the magnitude of change. Data are available beginning with 1953 

and are computed from aggregates which have been seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

In BCD, series 965 is an analytical measure appearing 

under "diffusion indexes." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT EXPENDITURES 

Series 61. Business Expenditures for New Plant and 

Equipment, Total 

Series 970. Diffusion Index of Business Expenditures 

for New Plant and Equipment, Total—18 

Industries 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

EXPENDITURES for new plant and equipment (series 61) 

cover all domestic private business except farming, real 

estate, the professions (medical, legal, educational and 

cultural), and nonprofit membership institutions. New 

plant and equipment expenditures refer to all costs (both 

replacement and expansion) chargeable to fixed asset 

accounts and for which depreciation accounts are ordinarily maintained. Included in the totals are expenditures for 

new construction, machinery, and, equipment (automobiles, trucks, and other transportation equipment). The 

figures do not include expenditures for land and mineral 

rights, maintenance and repair, used plant and equipment, and expenditures made in foreign countries. 

Estimates are based on reports submitted by a sample 

of companies reporting to the Bureau of Economic Analysis and by transportation companies reporting to the 

Interstate Commerce Commission. The expenditures of 

sample companies account for more than 60 percent of 

estimated universe expenditures. 

The results of the quarterly survey are published the 

third month of each quarter, providing estimates of actual 

spending in the quarter recently ended, and anticipations 

for both the current and following quarters. Each publication contains estimates of actual spending for several 

preceding quarters, but anticipated figures only from the 

most current survey. 

Data are available beginning with 1947 and are shown 

in billions of dollars at annual rate. They are seasonally 

adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, using the 

Census X-l l method. 

In BCD, series 61 appears under the economic process 

"fixed capital investment/' It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a coincider at peaks and as a lagger at troughs 

and overall. 

THIS index (series 970) is based on the 18 industries 

which make up the aggregate series 61 (see above). 

Series 970 is comprised of three closings, computed over 

1-quarter spans: 

(a) "Actual expenditures'' for a given period measures the percentage of industries reporting 

higher actual expenditures for that quarter than 

for the preceding quarter. 

(b) "Later anticipations" for a given quarter is 

based on the increases from the "actual" 

expenditures in the preceding quarter to the 

anticipation for the given quarter. 

(c) "Early anticipations" for a given quarter is 

based on increases from the preceding quarter's 

"final" or later anticipation to the given quarter's early anticipation. 

34 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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For diffusion index purposes, one-half of the industries 

reporting (or anticipating) no change are counted as 

rising. Data are available beginning with 1947 for actual 

expenditures and with 1952 for anticipated expenditures. 

In BCD, series 970 is an analytical measure classified 

under "diffusion indexes." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

HOUSING STARTS AND PERMITS 

Series 28. New Private Housing Units Started, Total 

Series 29. Index of New Private Housing Units 

Authorized by Local Building Permits 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the 

Census 

Both of the series described below refer to private 

housing units. A housing unit is a single room or group 

of rooms intended for occupancy as separate living quarters by a family, by a group of unrelated persons living 

together, or by a person living alone. Group quarters (such 

as dormitories, fraternity houses, nurses' homes, rooming houses, etc.) and all transient accommodations are 

excluded. 

SERIES 28 measures the number of private housing units 

on which construction is started each month in the United 

States. Included are all types of accommodations designed 

as family living quarters and constructed in new buildings 

(including year-round and seasonal houses, houses of all 

values and levels of quality, prefabricated houses, basement houses, shell houses, and houses built of secondhand materials). 

A housing start consists of the start of construction on 

a new housing unit when located within a new building 

which is intended primarily as a housekeeping residential 

building designed for nontransient occupancy. Start of 

construction for private housing units is defined as the 

beginning of excavation for the foundation of a building. 

All housing units in a multifamily building are counted as 

being started when excavation for the building is started. 

Housing provided by conversion of either residential or 

nonresidential space to provide additional numbers of 

housing units and the production of mobile homes are 

excluded. 

In May 1960, the method for computing series 28 has 

been revised, with revisions carried back to January 1959. 

Annual levels for the earlier years, furnished by the 

Bureau of Labor Statistics, have been substantially revised 

to make them comparable with those for the later years. 

Month-to-month movements for the earlier period, however, are not similarly revised but have been superimposed on the new annual levels in accordance with the 

monthly pattern of the old series. An explanation of the 

revision of the annual data is given in the Bureau of the 

Census report, "Housing Starts in May 1964" (Construction Reports: Housing Starts, C20-60). The figures shown 

in that source are limited to annual aggregates. The 

monthly data have been prepared by the Bureau of Domestic Commerce, U.S. Department of Commerce. (See the 

June 1964 issue of Construction Review.) In addition, the 

figures prior to 1959 represent nonfarm housing starts 

rather than total private housing starts shown in the latter 

part of the series. However, the difference is very small 

since farm housing starts comprise less than 2 percent 

of the total number. 

Data in BCD are shown as a monthly series along with 

a 4-month (MCD) moving average. They are measured 

in thousands, taken at an annual rate, and are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

In BCD, series 28 appears under the economic process 

"fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a leader at both peaks and troughs and as a 

leader overall. 

SERIES 29 measures the month-to-month changes in the 

number of housing units authorized by local permit-issuing places. The data relate to the issuance of permits and 

not to the actual start of construction. Frequently, several 

months may pass between the issuance of a permit and 

the start of construction. In a small number of cases, 

permits are not used at all and are allowed to lapse. 

Original data for the period 1948-53 are based upon 

*an estimate of the number of new privately-owned dwelling units authorized in urban areas as defined in the 

1940 Census of Population. Building permit data from 

reporting cities, representing approximately 85 percent 

of the 1940 urban population, have been expanded to 

represent all urban areas by matching nonreporting to 

reporting urban places on the basis of city population 

size and location and applying trend ratios for reporting 

places to nonreporting places. 

From 1954 to 1958, the data are based on reports from 

approximately 6,600 identical permit-issuing places including practically all large cities; a large proportion of 

smaller cities; and counties, towns, and townships. The 

1958 data (based on 6,600 identical permit-issuing 

places) have been adjusted to the level of the data for the 

period beginning 1959 (10,000 places) on the basis of 

the overlap of the.two series in January-April 1960; and 

data for the period 1954-1957 have been adjusted to the 

level of the later data on the basis of the estimated overlap 

of the two series in 1958. 

Basic data for the period 1959-62 are based on reports 

from 10,000 permit-issuing places; for 1963-1967, on 

12,000 permit-issuing places; for 1968-1971, on 13,000 

permit-issuing places; and from 1972 to date, on 14,000 

permit-issuing places. Permits issued by these 14,000 

places account for approximately 81 percent of all new 

residential construction in the United States. 

For use in BCD, these basic data have been made continuous by ratio adjustment and converted to an index, 

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1967=100. Because of changes in the number of permitissuing areas during the time periods mentioned above, 

this index (1) measures only short-term changes in the 

number of housing units authorized by identical permitissuing places; (2) does not measure the movement of 

permits in all permit-issuing places; and (3) does not 

measure the trend of housing construction in permit- and 

nonpermit-issuing places combined. Hence, because of 

variations in coverage, the 1948-53, 1954-58, 1959-62, 

1963-67, 1968-71, and 1972-to-date segments are not 

directly comparable. The index is constructed from seasonally adjusted data published by the source agency. 

In BCD, series 29 appears under the economic process 

"fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a leader at both peaks and troughs, and as a 

leader overall. 

INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 

Series 23. Index of Industrial Materials Prices 

Series 967. Diffusion Index of Industrial Materials 

Prices—13 Industrial Materials 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics 

SERIES 23 measures the spot market price movements of 

13 raw materials on commodity markets and organized 

exchanges. It is one of two major groupings (the other 

being foodstuffs) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' index 

spot market prices for 22 sensitive basic commodities 

whose markets are presumed to be among the first to be 

influenced by changes in economic conditions. In most 

cases, the commodities used are either raw materials or 

products close to the initial production stage. The raw 

industrial materials group includes burlap, copper scrap, 

cotton, hides, lead scrap, print cloth, rosin, rubber, steel 

scrap, tallow, tin, wool tops, and zinc. 

"Spot" price refers to the price at which a commodity 

is selling for immediate delivery. When spot prices are 

not available, "bid" or "asked" prices may be used. The 

prices are obtained from trade publications or from 

Government agencies. 

The commodities used in this index are those which are: 

(1) Widely used for further processing (basic), (2) freely 

traded in an open market, (3) sensitive to changing conditions significant in those markets, and (4) sufficiently 

homogeneous or standardized so that uniform and representative price quotations can be obtained over a period 

of time. Some commodities (such as crude rubber and 

tin), which are important in international trade, also are 

taken into account in order to reflect the influence of 

international markets on the economy. 

Spot market prices and indexes for each Tuesday are 

published on the following Friday. Indexes are unweighted 

geometric averages of the individual commodity price 

relatives. Summaries of indexes and prices for each 

month, together with monthly averages of the indexes, 

are usually published in the first report of the following 

month. Monthly indexes are geometric averages of the 

Tuesday prices during the month. 

Data are available beginning with 1947 and are measured in the form of an index: 1967=100. They are not 

adjusted for seasonal variation. 

In BCD, series 23 appears under the economic process 

"prices, costs, and profits." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a leader at troughs and overall and is unclassified at peaks. 

THE diffusion index (series 967) is based on the prices 

of the 13 raw materials components and is computed over 

1- and 9-month spans. This index shows the percentage 

of components rising over the timespan and thus reflects 

the direction of the change among the components—not 

the magnitude of the change. Thus, an increase in the 

aggregate series (accounted for by large rises in a few 

components and slight decreases in the majority of the 

components) may occur simultaneously with a decrease 

in the diffusion index. For diffusion index purposes, half 

the components showing no change over the timespan 

are counted as rising. 

Data for series 967 are available beginning with 1948. 

Although the industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted, the 13 components are seasonally 

adjusted individually by the Bureau of Economic Analysis 

before the diffusion index is computed. 

In BCD, series 967 is an analytical measure appearing 

under "diffusion indexes." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

STOCK PRICES 

Series 19. Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks 

Series 968. Diffusion Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks—65-82 Industries 

Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation 

THIS series 19 closely approximates the average movement of all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. 

The basic format of the monthly index currently used was 

introduced in 1957 and includes 500 stocks on a 1941-

43=10 base. The price of each stock is weighted by the 

number of shares outstanding, and the aggregate current 

market value is expressed as a relative of the average 

market value in the base period, divided by 10. The 

formula for the index is modified to offset arbitrary price 

changes due to issuance of rights, stock dividends, splitups and mergers. 

In July 1976, the index was revised to include some 

over-the-counter stocks, mainly in connection with the 

inclusion of bank and insurance stocks in the index. 

Formerly, three groups have been represented: 425 indus36 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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trials, 60 utilities, and 15 rails. The revised index comprises four groups: 400 industrials, 40 public utilities, 20 

transportation, and 40 financial. A total of 45 stocks from 

the old index are replaced in the new index. 

Each stock in the index must represent a viable enterprise, representative of the industry group to which it is 

assigned. Its market price movements in general must be 

responsive to changes in industry affairs. Given a choice 

among a number of stocks meeting this criterion, preference generally will be given to the most heavily weighted 

stocks in terms of aggregate market value and, thus, 

usually the more actively traded issues in the industry 

groups. Selection of stocks for addition to or removal 

from the index is the responsibility of the 500 Index 

Committee at Standard & Poor's. 

Monthly data are available beginning with 1945 and are 

not seasonally adjusted. In BCD, series 19 appears under 

the economic process "prices, costs, and profits." It is 

classified by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, 

and overall. 

SERIES 968 measures the percent of stocks with increasing prices, computed over 1- and 9-month spans. The 

index is based on 82 component industries through 

February 1963. Since then, the number of components 

has declined gradually to 65 components at the end of 

1975. For diffusion index purposes, half of the component showing no change is counted as increasing. Thus 

the index is computed by adding the number of components with rising prices to half the number with unchanged 

prices and dividing the result by the total number of 

components. 

Data are available beginning with 1948 and are computed from component series that have not been adjusted 

for seasonal variation. In BCD, series 968 is an analytical 

measure appearing under "diffusion indexes." It is not 

classified as a cyclical indicator. 

CORPORATE PROFITS 

Series 16. Corporate Profits After Taxes in Current 

Dollars 

Series 18. Corporate Profits After Taxes in 1972 

Dollars 

Series 79. Corporate Profits After Taxes With Inventory Valuation and Capital Consumption 

Adjustments in Current Dollars 

Series 80. Corporate Profits After Taxes With Inventory Valuation and Capital Consumption 

Adjustments in 1972 Dollars 

Series 22. Ratio of Profits (After Taxes) to Total Corporate Domestic Income 

Series 81. Ratio of Profits (After Taxes) With Inventory Valuation and Capital Consumption 

Series 34. 

Series 35. 

Series 295 

Series 286 

Series 287. 

Source: 

Adjustments to Total Corporate Domestic 

Income 

Net Cash Flow, Corporate, in Current Dollars 

Net Cash Flow, Corporate, in 1972 Dollars 

Business Saving—Undistributed Corporate 

Profits Plus Capital Consumption Allowances With Inventory Valuation and Capital 

Consumption Adjustments 

Corporate Profits With Inventory Valuation 

and Capital Consumption Adjustments 

Corporate Profits With Inventory Valuation 

and Capital Consumption Adjustments As a 

Percent of National Income 

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

"Corporate profits" is a measure of the amount of 

earnings, by corporations organized for profit, which 

accrue to U.S. residents before deduction of depletion 

charges and after exclusion of capital gains or losses. The 

profits of stock life insurance companies and mutual financial institutions are included. "Profits after taxes" is 

profits less Federal and State income tax liabilities. 

The definition of profits agrees with Federal income tax 

regulations, with the following exceptions: bad debt expenses are measured by actual losses, not additions to 

reserves; the profit or loss of bankrupt corporations 

includes the gain from unsatisfied debt; and corporate 

profits include net receipts of dividends and branch 

profits from abroad, as reflected in the balance of payments accounts, as well as domestic operations. 

"Inventory valuation adjustment" (IVA) is the change 

in the business inventories (CBI) component of GNP, 

which is measured as the change in the physical volume 

of inventories valued at prices of the current period less 

the change in the book value of inventories as reported by 

business. The IVA is necessary because, according to the 

inventory accounting methods used by business, the 

change in the book value generally differs from the change 

in business inventories. Measurement of inventory change 

as physical volume change valued in prices of the current 

period conforms its treatment to that of all other components of GNP. IVA is equal to the excess of the replacement cost of inventories used up over their historical 

acquisition cost. 

The "capital consumption adjustment" (CCAdj) converts tax return-based capital consumption allowances to 

a replacement cost valuation and to uniform service lives 

and depreciation formulas. "Capital consumption allowances" is the total of depreciation charges and accidental 

damage to fixed capital. Previously, depreciation reported 

by business has been that of tax return-based capital consumption allowances and has not been adjusted for 

changes in the replacement value of capital goods, except 

for farm enterprises. Depreciation now is valued at replacement cost (current prices) rather than at historical prices 

and is measured consistently with respect to the service 

lives of assets and the depreciation formula. CCAdj is 

BCD 1977 37 

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equal to the new measure of capital consumption allowances minus the old measure. 

SERIES 16 and 18 are measures of total corporate profits, 

after taxes, and before IVA and CCAdj. The constant-dollar 

series (series 18) is computed by dividing the currentdollar series (series 16) into two components—dividends 

after taxes and undistributed corporate profits after taxes. 

The net corporate dividends component is deflated by dividing the current-dollar estimates by the implicit price 

deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). 

The undistributed profits component is deflated by dividing the current-dollar estimates by the implicit price deflator for nonresidential fixed investment. 

In BCD, both series 16 and 18 appear under the economic process "prices, costs, and profits." Both series 

are classified by cyclical timing as leaders at peaks, 

troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 79 and 80 are measures of total corporate profits, 

after taxes, with IVA and CCAdj. The constant-dollar series 

(series 80) is computed in the same way as series 18, 

above: The current-dollar series is divided into dividends 

after taxes and undistributed corporate profits after taxes 

with IVA and CCAdj. The dividends component is deflated 

by the PCE deflator; the undistributed profits with IVA and 

CCAdj component is deflated by the deflator for nonresidential fixed investment. 

In BCD, both series 79 and 80 appear under the economic process "prices, costs, and profits." Both series 

are classified by cyclical timing as leaders at peaks, coinciders at troughs, and leaders overall. 

SERIES 22 and 81 measure after-tax profits (with IVA and 

CCAdj for series 81) originating in domestic corporate 

business as a percent of total corporate domestic income. 

The numerators of these series are series 16 (for series 

22) and series 79 (for series 81) less the net inflow of 

branch profits and dividends from the rest of the world. 

The denominator (total domestic income) consists of the 

total income originating in corporations. This is comprised of three parts: (1) Compensation of employees; 

(2) corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj before tax; and 

(3) net interest. Compensation of employees includes both 

wages and salaries (monetary remuneration, including 

executives' compensation, commissions, tips, bonuses, 

and payment in kind) and supplements to wages and salaries (which includes employer contributions for social 

security; unemployment insurance; pension, health, and 

welfare funds; and workmen's compensation). Corporate 

profits is described above. Net interest is the excess of 

interest payments (monetary and imputed) of corporations 

over their interest receipts (monetary and imputed). 

Series 22 and 81 are computed by dividing domestic 

profits by total corporate domestic income and converting 

the resulting ratio to a percent. In BCD, both series appear under the economic process "prices, costs, and 

profits." Series 22 is classified by cyclical timing as a 

leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. Series 81 is classified as a leader at troughs and overall, but has no cyclical 

classification at peaks. 

SERIES 34 and 35 are components of the corporate profits 

series. Net cash flow is the sum of undistributed profits 

(the portion of profits remaining after taxes and dividends 

have been paid) and capital consumption allowances (the 

total of depreciation charges and accidental losses to 

fixed capital). Constant-dollar net cash flow (series 35) is 

computed by dividing current-dollar estimates by the implicit price deflator for nonresidential fixed investment. 

In BCD, both series 34 and 35 appear under the economic process "prices, costs, and profits." They are both 

classified by cyclical timing as leaders at peaks, troughs, 

and overall. 

SERIES 295 measures the total amount of undistributed 

corporate profits plus capital consumption allowances, 

with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. It is equal to the net cash flow (series 34), with 

IVA and CCAdj added. 

In BCD, series 295 appears under the economic process "saving." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 286 measures total corporate profits with IVA and 

CCAdj before Federal and State income taxes. It is equal 

to series 79 plus the profits tax liability. In BCD, this 

series appears under the economic process "national income and its components." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 287 measures the share of national income accounted for by corporate profits. National income is defined as the aggregate earnings of labor and property 

arising from the current production of goods and services 

by the Nation's economy. 

Series 287 is computed by dividing corporate profits 

with IVA and CCAdj (series 286) by national income 

(series 220) and expressing the result in terms of percent. This series appears under the economic process 

"shares of GNP and national income." It is not classified 

as a cyclical indicator in BCD. 

PROFITS PER DOLLAR OF SALES 

Series 15. Profits (After Taxes) Per Dollar of Sales, All 

Manufacturing Corporations 

Source: Federal Trade Commission 

THIS series measures the ratio of profits (after income 

tax) to sales of all manufacturing corporations. The profits 

38 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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data used reflect conventional accounting methods and 

generally are based on corporations' books of account as 

opposed to profits computed for tax purposes. Profits data 

for this series generally have not been revised to reflect 

retroactive changes in tax rates, etc. The estimates are 

based on consolidated financial statements collected from 

samples of small, medium, and large manufacturing corporations selected by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) 

in a probability sample survey drawn from Federal income 

tax returns. This sample is supplemented by a quarterly 

sample of corporate births drawn from the records of the 

Social Security Administration. 

The present sample accounts for approximately only 6 

percent of the total number of corporate manufacturing 

enterprises, but it accounts for about 88 percent of the 

total assets. Corporations account for 97 percent of the 

total receipts for all manufacturing activities in the United 

States; nearly one-third of the national income originates 

in corporate manufacturing; and manufacturing corporations account for more than 50 percent of all corporate 

profits. 

The composition of the sample changes each quarter so 

as to reflect the effect of corporate births, deaths, acquisitions, mergers, consolidations, etc. In addition, about oneeighth of the sample segments of small- and medium-size 

corporations is replaced each quarter. 

Data for this series are available beginning with 1947 

and are measured in terms of cents. Basic data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

In BCD, series 15 appears under the economic process 

"prices, costs, and profits." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

PRICE PER UNIT OF LABOR COST 

Series 17. Index of Price Per Unit of Labor Cost, Manufacturing—Ratio, Index of Wholesale Prices 

of Manufactured Goods (Unadjusted) to Seasonally Adjusted Index of Compensation of 

Employees in Manufacturing (Sum of Wages, 

Salaries, and Supplements to Wages and 

Salaries) Per Unit of Output 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; U.S. Department of Labor, 

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

SERIES 17 measures the relationship between the wholesale prices of manufactured goods and an index of labor 

cost per unit of output. 

The wholesale price-manufacturing, is designed to 

measure the direction and rate of change of prices of 

manufactured commodities. The prices used in this index 

are transaction prices as obtained from manufacturers, 

taking into account trade and quantity discounts. Cash 

and seasonal discounts also are deducted when it is determined that most buyers avail themselves of these discounts. Nominal or published prices are used when they 

are considered indicative of the market situation or when 

no other price is available. Price data are not seasonally 

adjusted. 

The index of price per unit of labor cost is series 62 — 

ratio of the index of compensation of employees to the 

index of industrial production in manufacturing. For a 

more detailed explanation of this series, see the description of series 62. 

Series 17 (seasonally adjusted) is computed by dividing 

the index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) by the seasonally adjusted index of labor cost 

per unit of output (series 62). 

Data are available beginning with 1947. In BCD, series 

17 appears under the economic process "prices, costs, 

and profits." It is classified by cyclical timing as a leader 

at both peaks and troughs and as a leader overall. 

LABOR COST PER UNIT OF OUTPUT 

Series 63. Index of Unit Labor Cost, Private Business 

Sector 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics 

Series 68. Labor Cost (Current Dollars) Per Unit of 

Gross Domestic Product (1972 Dollars), 

Nonfinancial Corporations—Ratio of CurrentDollar Compensation of Employees to Real 

Gross Corporate Product 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Series 62. Index of Labor Cost Per Unit of Output, Total 

Manufacturing—Ratio, Index of Compensation of Employees in Manufacturing (Sum of 

Wages, Salaries, and Supplements to Wages 

and Salaries) to Index of Industrial Production, Manufacturing 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 

SERIES 63 measures the cost of labor input required to 

produce one unit of output. It is derived by dividing compensation per hour (series 345) by output per hour (series 

370). 

Compensation per hour measures the hourly costs of 

wages and salaries, in addition to supplemental payments; 

such as, the contributions of employers to social security, 

unemployment insurance tax, and payment for private 

health and pension plans. Compensation data include an 

estimate of wages, salaries, and supplements of the selfemployed. (For a more complete description see series 

345.) 

Output per hour reflects the ratio between constantdollar gross product originating in the private or indiBCD 1977 39 

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vidual sectors and the corresponding hours of all persons 

engaged in the sector. (For a more complete description, 

see series 370.) 

The ratio obtained by dividing hourly compensation by 

output per hour is converted to an index, 1967=100; and 

both components used in the computation are adjusted for 

seasonal variation. Quarterly data are available beginning 

with 1947. 

In BCD, series 63 appears under the economic process 

"prices, costs, and profits." It is classified by cyclical timing as a lagger at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

THIS series 68 measures the current-dollar labor cost 

(compensation of employees) incurred by nonfinancial corporations in producing one 1972 dollar's worth of output 

in the current period. It is computed by taking the ratio of 

current-dollar compensation of employees (series 280) to 

gross corporate product in 1972 dollars. 

The compensation of employees component (labor cost) 

measures the income of persons in an employee status as 

remuneration for their work. This includes both wages and 

salaries and supplements to wages and salaries. Wages 

and salaries consist of monetary remuneration of employees as well as compensation of corporate officers, 

commissions, bonuses, tips, and payment in kind. "Supplements to wages and salaries" represents employer contributions to social security, unemployment insurance, 

health and welfare funds, and workmen's compensation. 

Real gross product originating in nonfinancial corporations is equal to the current-period quantities of gross 

corporate product valued at 1972 prices. It is defined as 

the sales of these firms to other businesses, consumers, 

government, and foreigners, plus the addition to their own 

inventories, less current purchases from domestic and 

foreign sources. Alternatively, it may be defined as the 

sum of incomes and other charges to gross product, capital consumption allowances, indirect business taxes, 

compensation of employees, net interest, and corporate 

profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption 

adjustments. For this series, data based on the latter definition are used. 

Quarterly data are available beginning with 1948 and 

are measured in dollars. Data are seasonally adjusted by 

the source agency. 

In BCD, series 68 appears under the economic process 

"prices, costs, and profits." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a lagger at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

SERIES 62 measures the relationship between the volume 

of production of manufactured goods and the cost of the 

labor involved in that production. It is computed by taking the ratio of the index of compensation of employees 

in manufacturing to the index of industrial production, 

manufacturing. 

The compensation of employees in manufacturing component (labor cost) measures the income received by persons in an employee status as remuneration for their work. 

This includes both wages and salaries and supplements to 

wages and salaries. "Wages and salaries" includes both 

monetary payments to employees (including tips, commissions, bonuses, etc.) and payments in kind which 

represent income to the employee. "Supplements to 

wages and salaries" consists of employer contributions 

for social insurance and of other labor income. (For more 

detail, see the section entitled Compensation of Employees 

in this Handbook.) Data are collected by the Bureau of 

Economic Analysis. 

The industrial production index in manufacturing component is a measure of the changes in physical output of 

manufacturing in the United States. It includes 11 major 

groups of durable goods (BCD series 73) and 10 major 

groups of nondurable goods (BCD series 74). Data are 

prepared by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and are based on data compiled by government agencies and by various trade organizations and 

publications. (For further explanation of the computation 

of industrial production, see the segment of this Handbook on Industrial Production.) 

Series 62 is computed by converting seasonally adjusted compensation of employees to an index (1967= 

100) and dividing by the index of manufacturing production (1967=100) to yield the seasonally adjusted index of 

labor cost per unit of output. Both component series are 

seasonally adjusted by the source agencies. 

Monthly data are available beginning with 1947. In 

BCD, series 62 appears under the economic process 

"prices, costs, and profits." It is classified by cyclical timing as a lagger at both peaks and troughs, and as a lagger 

overall. 

MONEY SUPPLY MEASURES 

Series 85. Change in Money Supply M l (Demand Deposits Plus Currency) 

Series 102. Change in Money Supply M2 (Demand Deposits and Currency Plus Time Deposits at 

Commercial Banks Other Than Large CD's) 

Series 104. Change in Total Liquid Assets (Smoothed) 

Series 105. Money Supply M l (Demand Deposits Plus 

Currency) in 1972 Dollars 

Series 106. Money Supply M2 (Demand Deposits and 

Currency Plus Time Deposits at Commercial Banks Other Than Large CD's) in 1972 

Dollars 

Series 107. Ratio, Gross National Product to Money 

Supply M l 

Series 108. Ratio, Personal Income to Money Supply 

M2 

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System 

The series described below are based on various measures of the U.S. money supply as computed by the Fed40 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
eral Reserve System (FRB). The different money supply 

measures are popularly known by the abbreviations Ml , 

M2, etc. The money supply series shown in BCD are based 

on versions Ml , M2, and total liquid assets. Data for all 

three versions are seasonally adjusted by the source 

agency. 

The M l version of the money supply consists of (1) 

Currency outside the Treasury, the Federal Reserve banks, 

and the vaults of all commercial banks; (2) demand deposits at all commercial banks other than those due to 

domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government, 

less cash items in process of collection and the Federal 

Reserve float; and (3) foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve banks. 

M2 consists of M l plus (1) Savings deposits at commercial banks, (2) time deposits open account, and (3) 

time certificates of deposit other than negotiable certificates of deposit issued in denominations of $100,000 or 

more by large weekly reporting commercial banks. 

"Total liquid assets" consists of all holdings of liquid 

assets by the private domestic nonfinancial sector. Liquid 

assets include currency, demand deposits, time deposits 

at commercial banks and nonbank thrift institutions, savings bonds, negotiable certificates of deposit, short-term 

marketable U.S. securities, open market paper, Federal 

funds and repurchasing agreements and money market 

fund shares. 

Money supply measures exclude deposits of the U.S. 

Government (which do not represent money in the hands 

of the public) but include those of State and local governments, whose deposits are similar to those of large corporations. 

Data for M l and M2 are averages of daily data for 

member banks. Estimates of nonmember bank deposits 

are based on quarterly call report data and the relationship of nonmember and small member bank deposits on 

those dates. Estimates of M l and M2 are available weekly 

in the FRB statistical release "Money Stock Measures" 

and monthly in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. Data for 

liquid assets are available only on a monthly basis and 

are published in the Council of Economic Advisors' Economic Indicators. 

The money supply data shown in BCD are computed 

from FRB-compiled data as follows: 

THIS series 85 is based on the M l version of money supply (see description above). It is derived by computing 

month-to-month percent changes in the seasonally adjusted dollar figures for Ml . Estimates for the latest 

month are based on weekly figures available for that 

month. These weekly data are averaged and the percent 

change is computed from the same time period in the 

previous month. All percentage changes are shown at a 

monthly rate. This series is shown in BCD in monthly 

form in the tables and in monthly form and as a 4-term 

weighted (1 , 2, 2, 1) moving average plotted at the terminal month of the span in the charts. 

In BCD, this series appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at both peaks and troughs and a leader overall. 

Data are available beginning with 1947. 

SERIES 102 is based on the M2 version of money supply 

(see description above). It is derived by computing monthto-month percent changes in the seasonally adjusted 

dollar figures for M2. Estimates for the latest month are 

based on weekly figures available for that month. These 

weekly data are averaged and the percent change is computed from the same time period in the previous month. 

Percent changes are shown at a monthly rate. 

Although series 102 begins in 1947, data for M2, from 

which it is computed, begin only in 1959. For the period 

prior to 1959, when separate data for CD's have not been 

available, total time deposits have been used to compute 

the early segment of series 102. Percent changes in this 

segment were computed in the same way as those for the 

later segment. 

This series is shown in BCD in monthly form in the 

tables and in monthly form and as a 4-term weighted 

( 1 , 2, 2, 1) moving average plotted at the terminal month 

of the span in the charts. 

In BCD, this series appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at peaks and a coincider at troughs with no overall classification. 

SERIES 104 is based on the total liquid assets version of 

money supply (see description above). It is derived by 

computing month-to-month percent changes in the dollar 

figures for liquid assets and then is smoothed by taking a 

4-term weighted (1 , 2, 2, 1) moving average placed at 

the terminal month of the span. 

In BCD, this series appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at both peaks and troughs and as a leader overall. Data are available beginning with April 1948. 

THIS series 105 is a measure of real money balances in 

billions of dollars. It consists of money supply (Ml—see 

describtion above) deflated by the consumer price index 

(CPI) for all items, on a base of 1972=100. The CPI 

measures price changes in the total of goods and services 

purchased by urban single and family wage earners and 

clerical workers. Both components are used in their seasonally adjusted forms. Basic unadjusted data for the 

deflator are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 

which also provides the seasonal adjustment factors used 

to adjust the index. 

In BCD, series 105 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at both peaks and troughs and as a leader overall. 

BCD 1977 41 

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Data for this series are available beginning with 1946. 

THIS series 106 is a measure of real money supply. It 

consists of money supply (M2—see description above) deflated by the consumer price index (CPI) for all items, on 

a base of 1972=100. The CPI measures price changes in 

the total of goods and services purchased by urban single 

and family wage earners and clerical workers. Both components are used in their seasonally adjusted forms. Basic 

unadjusted data for the deflator are published by the 

Bureau of Labor Statistics, which also provides the seasonal adjustment factors used to adjust the index. 

In BCD, series 106 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at peaks, troughs and as a leader overall. 

Data for this series are available beginning with 1947. 

THIS series 107 is derived by dividing gross national 

product (GNP) in current dollars (BCD series 200) by the 

money supply (Ml). Quarterly averages of the monthly 

M l series (described above) are obtained before series 

107 is computed. GNP represents the market value of the 

total output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy before the deduction of depreciation 

charges and other allowances for business and institutional consumption of capital goods, private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government purchases of goods and services. Data are compiled 

and seasonally adjusted by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

In BCD, series 107 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a coincider at both peaks and troughs and as a coincider 

overall. The series is available beginning with 1947 and 

is expressed in ratio form. 

SERIES 108 is derived by dividing personal income (BCD 

series 223) by the M2 version of money supply. M2 is 

described above. Personal income is defined as the income received by individuals, unincorporated businesses, 

and nonprofit institutions. Personal income data are compiled and seasonally adjusted by the U.S. Department of 

Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

In BCD, series 108 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a coincider at peaks, a lagger at troughs, and a coincider 

overall. The series is available beginning with 1947 and is 

expressed in ratio form. 

MORTGAGE DEBT 

Series 33. Net Change in Mortgage Debt Held by Financial Institutions and Life Insurance Companies 

Source: American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of 

Housing and Urban Development, Government 

National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S. Savings 

and Loan League; Board of Governors of the 

Federal Reserve System 

THIS series measures the month-to-month change in 

mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies. It is defined as the volume of mortgage 

loans acquired less the volume of loan disposed of by 

these organizations from one month to the next, taken at 

an annual rate. This net change is known as the "net 

flow" which can increase only to the extent that the organizations increase their resources or increase the proportion of their assets held in the form of mortgage loans or 

both. Mortgage loans financed by the proceeds received 

from loan repayments or from sales of loans to other 

investors are not included. 

The term "mortgage loan" denotes indebtedness 

(incurred by private borrowers) whatever the purpose, 

which is secured by a mortgage or other lien on real property located within the United States, including the District 

of Columbia and ail U.S. territories and possessions. A 

mortgage loan may be used to finance the acquisition of 

a newly constructed property, the purchase of existing 

property, construction by a builder, or the holding of 

unimproved land by a developer; to refinance an outstanding loan; or to finance improvements of existing 

property through the execution of a new loan or by an 

add-on under an existing loan. It may be for non-real 

estate purposes or for the purchase of a money loan 

wherein the lender sells property on which he takes back 

the mortgage loan as partial or full payment. Or, a mortgage may enable the borrower to pay for a property acquisition from a third party. 

Data are collected from a variety of sources. Data for 

life insurance companies include all active mortgage loans 

plus foreclosed liens subject to redemption and are reported by the American Council of Life Insurance. Estimated data represent 89 percent of total assets held by 

U.S. legal reserve life insurance companies. The Federal 

National Mortgage Association reports monthly on purchases and sales by mortgage companies of FHA-insured 

and VA-guaranteed loans. These loan purchases are from 

private lenders that had previously held the loans and 

also include loans used to back bond issues guaranteed 

by the Government National Mortgage Association. Data 

for mortgage loans held by mutual savings banks are compiled monthly by the National Association of Mutual Savings Banks (NAMSB). The figures are based on monthly 

reports to NAMSB by savings banks having over 90 percent of the industry's deposits and on benchmark figures 

obtained from a semiannual NAMSB survey of all savings 

banks. Data include figures for construction. The Federal 

Home Loan Bank Board collects data from savings and 

loan associations (the U.S. Savings and Loan League). 

Included are mortgage loans originated by associations 

42 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
insured by the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation which represent over 97 percent of the resources 

of all operating savings and loan associations. Data for 

mortgage loans held by commercial banks include all 

loans, whatever the purpose, secured primarily by real 

estate (as evidenced by mortgages, deeds of trust, land 

contracts, or other liens on real estate). Also included are 

loans secured by residential properties (both farm and 

nonfarm) that are guaranteed by the Farmers Home Administration. Excluded are pooled mortgages against 

which certificates guaranteed by the Government National 

Mortgage Association have been issued and loans to real 

estate companies and mortgage lenders that specialize in 

mortgage loan originations and that service mortgages for 

others. 

Data for series 33 begin in 1955 and are measured in 

billions of dollars. Data are seasonally adjusted by the 

Bureau of Economic Analysis, using the Census X-l l 

method. 

In BCD, this series appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at both peaks and troughs and as a leader 

overall. 

COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS 

Series 72. Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding, Weekly Reporting Large Commercial 

Banks 

Series 112. Net Change in Bank Loans to Businesses 

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System 

SERIES 72 measures the average dollar amount of business loans outstanding each month. Included are data on 

all loans for commercial and industrial purposes except 

those secured by real estate. Loans to financial institutions and loans for the purpose of purchasing or carrying 

securities are excluded also. 

The data are based on reports to the Federal Reserve 

System by approximately 320 banks. The reports include 

data on the amount of commercial and industrial loans 

outstanding as of each Wednesday and the amount of 

loans sold outright during each week to the banks' own 

foreign branches, nonconsolidated nonbank affiliates of the 

banks, the banks' holding companies (if not a bank), and 

consolidated nonbank subsidiaries of the holding companies. For BCD, a weekly series is derived by summing 

the amount of commercial and industrial loans held by 

banks and those sold outright, as reported to the Federal Reserve System. The monthly series is the arithmetic 

mean of weekly data. 

Data begin in 1945, are shown as a monthly series in 

BCD, and are measured in millions of dollars. Beginning 

with November 1968, data are seasonally adjusted by 

means of the Census X-l l seasonal adjustment program. 

Prior to that date, the National Bureau of Economic 

Research seasonally adjusted the data. 

In BCD, series 72 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a lagger at both peaks and troughs and as a lagger overall. 

SERIES 112 measures the change (actual differences) 

during the month in the amount of commercial and industrial loans outstanding, seasonally adjusted (series 72). 

These changes are computed by subtracting the figure for 

a given month from that for the preceding month. This 

change is converted to a simple annual rate and is measured in billions of dollars. 

In BCD, series 112 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at both peaks and troughs and as a leader overall. Monthly data are available beginning with 1945. 

CONSUMER INSTALLMENT DEBT 

Series 113. Net Change in Consumer Installment Debt 

Series 66. Consumer Installment Debt 

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System 

Series 95. Ratio, Consumer Installment Debt to Personal Income 

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau 

of Economic Analysis 

These series measure all short- and intermediate-term 

credit used to finance the purchase of commodities and 

services for personal consumption or to refinance debts 

originally incurred for such purposes. 

The term "credit" means an advance of purchasing 

power that could be used to obtain goods and services, or 

an advance of goods and services in exchange for a 

promise to pay at a later date. The term "consumption" 

means the process of using up goods and services as an 

end to itself rather than as a stage in production. Credit 

extended to governmental agencies and nonprofit or 

charitable organizations, as well as credit extended to 

businesses or individuals exclusively for business purposes, is excluded. 

Installment credit includes all consumer credit held by 

financial institutions and retail outlets that is scheduled to 

be repaid in two or more installments. Revolving credit 

and budget coupon accounts also are classified as installment credit. Specific categories of consumer credit include automobile paper, other consumer goods paper, 

personal loans, and home improvement loans. Home mortgages are not included. Financial institutions hold nearly 

90 percent of all the consumer credit outstanding, with 

retail outlets holding the remainder. 

The consumer credit data are based largely on comprehensive benchmark data which become available periodically. Current monthy estimates are extrapolated from the 

BCD 1977 43 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
latest benchmarks on the basis of sample data obtained 

through the voluntary cooperation of lenders and other 

credit granters. The major portion of financial institution 

data is obtained from the following sources: Federal Reserve banks, the Association of Mutual Savings Banks, and 

reports of finance companies. Retail outlet data are obtained from Bureau of the Census surveys on sales and 

accounts receivable. 

SERIES 113 measures the change during the month in 

the amount of consumer installment debt outstanding. 

Each monthy change is determined by subtracting the 

consumer installment credit repaid during the month from 

the new credit extended. Credit repaid and extended are 

seasonally adjusted by the Federal Reserve Board by a 

modified ratio-to-moving-average method. Data begin in 

1945 and are measured in billions of dollars at annual 

rate. 

Change in consumer installment debt appears in BCD 

under the economic process "money and credit." It is 

classified by cyclical timing as a leader at both peaks and 

troughs, and as a leader overall. 

SERIES 66 measures the total amount of consumer installment credit outstanding at the end of each month. Data 

are published without adjustment for seasonal variation by 

the Federal Reserve Board. These data are seasonally adjusted for BCD by the National Bureau of Economic Research for the period January 1948 through January 1955 

by Univac Method II; and the seasonally adjusted series is 

carried forward from February 1955 by adding the FRB 

seasonally adjusted data on net change in consumer installment debt outstanding to the seasonally adjusted total 

consumer installment debt outstanding for the previous 

month. Data begin in 1945 and are measured in millions 

of dollars. 

In BCD, series 66 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a lagger at both peaks and troughs and as a lagger 

overall. 

SERIES 95 measures the amount of consumer installment 

debt outstanding per dollar of personal income. It is 

derived by dividing the former (series 66) by the latter 

(series 52) and expressing the resulting ratio in terms of 

percent. Consumer installment debt outstanding is described above. Personal income is defined as the income 

received by individuals, unincorporated businesses and 

nonprofit institutions. Personal income data are compiled and seasonally adjusted by the U.S. Department of 

Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

In BCD, series 95 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a lagger at both peaks and troughs and as a lagger overall. Monthly data are available beginning with 1945. 

TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING 

Series 110. Total Funds Raised by Private Nonfinancial 

Borrowers in Credit Markets 

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System 

THIS series measures the amount of funds raised each 

quarter in credit markets by households, State and local 

governments, and nonfinancial businesses. Foreign borrowers are included also. Forms of credit covered are 

security issues (including corporate stock flotations), 

mortgages, consumer credit, business and farm loans 

from banks, Federal loans to businesses and farms, commercial paper, and acceptances. All security credit and 

loans to financial businesses are excluded. 

Data are net figures; they consist of funds raised less 

debts repaid. Figures are available beginning with 1952. 

They represent millions of dollars (taken at an annual 

rate) and are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

In BCD, series 110 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at peaks and troughs and as a leader overall. 

LIABILITIES OF BUSINESS FAILURES 

Series 14. Current Liabilities of Business Failures 

Source: Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 

BUSINESS failure is defined as "a concern that is involved 

in a court proceeding or a voluntary action that is likely to 

end in loss to creditors." All industrial and commercial 

enterprises that are petitioned into Federal Bankruptcy 

Courts are included in the failure records. Also included 

are concerns which are forced out of business through 

such actions in the State courts as foreclosure, execution, 

and attachments with insufficient assets to cover all 

claims; concerns involved in court actions; such as, receivership, reorganization, or arrangement; voluntary discontinuances with known loss to creditors; and voluntary 

compromises with creditors out of court, where obtainable. 

Liabilities represent approximately current obligations. 

They include all accounts and notes payable and all obligations, whether in secured form or not, known to be held 

by banks, officers, affiliated companies, supplying companies, or the Government. They do not include long-term, 

publicly-held obligations. Offsetting assets are not taken 

into account. 

Data on failures are collected throughout the 50 States 

and the District of Columbia by Dun & Bradstreet reporters 

who make daily checks of court records for court-action 

cases. Data for noncourt cases are collected from local 

credit management groups and boards of trade and by 

reporters who make regular rounds of interviews and note 

closings of stores leaving unpaid credit commitments. 

Reporters also scan sales notices in newspapers, attach44 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
merits, sheriffs' sales, etc. All reports are forwarded to 

New York, and the final statistics are compiled from these 

reports. 

Data for current liabilities of business failures begin in 

1945, form a monthly series in BCD, are expressed in 

millions of dollars, and are not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, this series 14 appears under the economic 

process "money and credit." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

DELINQUENT LOANS 

Series 39. Percent of Consumer Installment Loans Delinquent 30 Days and Over 

Source: The American Bankers Association 

THIS series measures the number of delinquent bank-held 

consumer installment loans as a percent of the total number of bank-held consumer installment loans outstanding. 

Installment loans are those requiring repayment in two 

or more scheduled payments; a delinquent loan is defined 

as one having an installment past due for 30 days or 

more. Prior to September 1963, the data are simple averages of delinquency rates for six types of consumer installment loans: Personal, FHA Title I, home appliance, 

automobile-direct, automobile-indirect, and property improvement. Beginning in October 1963, the data are a 

weighted average of these types of loans. Beginning in 

August 1970, mobile-home loans also are included in the 

data. In 1973, the survey has been expanded to include 

recreational vehicles, bank card loans, and revolving 

credit. A weighted average for all 8 loan types is included 

also. 

Each of the above types of loans falls into one of the 

four principal classes of installment credit: Automobile 

paper, other consumer goods paper, repair and modernization loans, and personal loans. "Automobile paper" and 

"other consumer goods paper" represent credit extended 

for the purpose of purchasing automobiles or other consumer goods and, in most cases, are secured by the items 

purchased. "Repair and modernization loans" includes 

both FHA insured and uninsured loans made to finance 

the maintenance and/or improvement of owner-occupied 

dwelling units. "Personal loans" includes all other loans 

for consumer purposes; such as, consolidation of consumer debts and payments of taxes and medical, educational, or travel expenses, etc. Some personal loans are 

used for the purchase of consumer goods, but, since they 

are not secured by the goods, they are not reported as 

commodity paper under automobile or other consumer 

goods. 

The survey sample for this series includes approximately 

1,200 banks of all sizes randomly selected to provide 

coverage in the 50 States and the District of Columbia. 

Data for January 1948 through October 1964 represent the delinquency rate as of the last day of each month. 

From December 1964 to December 1974, data represent 

the percent of installment loans delinquent at the end of 

bimonthly periods ending in February, April, June, August, 

October, and December. Beginning in January 1975, data 

are again monthly and represent the delinquency rate as 

of the last day of each month. 

This series is inversely related to general business fluctuations; i.e., it moves upward during periods of business 

decline and downward during periods of business expansion. Data begin in 1948, are measured in percentage 

points, and are seasonally adjusted by means of the Census X-l l seasonal adjustment program through 1974. 

Beginning with 1975, data are seasonally adjusted by the 

source agency. 

In BCD, this series appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at both peaks and troughs, and as a leader 

overall. 

BANK RESERVES 

Series 93. Free Reserves (Member Banks Excess Reserves Minus Borrowings) 

Series 94. Member Bank Borrowings from the Federal 

Reserve 

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System 

Data on free reserves and borrowings are reported by 

the approximately 5,800 banks which are members of the 

Federal Reserve System. Weekly and monthly data are 

averages of daily figures (closing figures for borrowings) 

reported weekly to the Federal Reserve by member banks. 

Beginning September 12, 1968, the amount is based on 

close-of-business figures for the reserve period 2 weeks 

prior to the reporting date. The monthly estimates that are 

published in BCD are computed by averaging data for 

weeks to date, ending on Wednesday. Data begin in 1945, 

are measured in millions of dollars, and are not seasonally 

adjusted. 

Required reserves are minimum balances required to 

be maintained by member banks pursuant to Federal Reserve regulations. These reserve requirements, which are 

changed occasionally by the Federal Reserve Board, are 

specified as percents of deposit liabilities and vary by type 

and amount of deposits. Prior to December 1959, the only 

permissible legal reserves were balances with the Federal Reserve banks; since then, the inclusion of vault cash 

has been allowable. 

SERIES 93 measures the difference between the excess 

reserves of member banks and their borrowings from the 

Federal Reserve System, or, equivalents, the difference 

between member bank reserve balances and the sum of 

their required reserves and their borrowings from the SysBCD 1977 45 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
tem. When excess reserves exceed total borrowings, the 

difference is termed "free reserves." Conversely, when 

total borrowings exceed excess reserves, it is termed "net 

borrowed reserves." Free reserves is a partial reflection of 

the credit potential of the banking system. 

In BCD, series 93 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at peaks with no classification at troughs nor 

overall classification. 

SERIES 94 measures the amount that member banks have 

borrowed from Federal Reserve banks in order to obtain, 

on a temporary basis, reserve funds needed to cover required reserves. Recent actions by the FRB are making it 

easier for smaller member banks to borrow. Effective 

April 19, 1973, the Board's Regulation A, which governs 

lending by Federal Reserve banks, has been revised to 

assist smaller banks to meet the seasonal borrowing needs 

of their communities. 

In BCD, series 94 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified as a leader at peaks 

and a lagger at troughs with no overall classification. 

INTEREST RATES 

Series 119. Federal Funds Rate 

Series 114. Discount Rate on New Issues of 91-Day 

Treasury Bills 

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System 

Series 115. Yield on Long-Term Treasury Bonds 

Source; U.S. Department of the Treasury 

Series 116. Yield on New Issues of High-Grade Corporate Bonds 

Source: Citibank, 1948-59; U.S. Department of the 

Treasury, 1959 to date 

Series 117. Yield on Municipal Bonds, 20-Bond Average 

Source: The Bond Buyer 

Series 118. Secondary Market Yields on FHA Mortgages 

Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration 

Series 67. Bank Rates on Short-Term Business Loans, 

35 Cities 

Series 109. Average Prime Rate Charged by Banks 

Source; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 

System 

SERIES 119 indicates the rate of interest charged on unsecured overnight loans available for use on the same day. 

Such loans, which are made by a number of institutions, 

including commercial banks, savings banks, savings and 

loan associations, and agencies for foreign banks, normally result in the transfer of ownership of reserve balances that member commercial banks hold at Federal 

Reserve Banks. In many cases, a Federal funds loan is 

arranged diectly between two member commercial banks; 

for example, a bank with excess reserves may lend part of 

its Federal Reserve balances to a bank that has a shortage 

of reserves. 

The data for this series are monthly averages of daily 

effective rates for the month. Prior to the week ending 

July 25, 1973, the daily effective rate reflects the most 

representative rate of the day—usually the one at which 

most transactions occur. Since that time, the daily effective rate is an average of the rates charged on a given 

day, weighted by the volume of transactions at each rate. 

Rates for weekends and holidays are considered to be the 

same as for the preceding working day. Data begin in 

August 1954, are measured in percentage points and are 

not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, series 119 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a leader at peaks and a lagger at troughs and a lagger 

overall. 

SERIES 114 measures, on a bank discount basis, the average rate of interest as set in the weekly auction of new 

91-day Treasury bills. In the auction, each potential buyer 

specifies the price he is willing to pay and the amount of 

bills he wishes to buy, and awards are made to the highest bidders. For each week's issue, the average rate of 

interest is based on the average of the prices at which 

the various portions of the issue are sold. The monthly 

series is the average of the four or five weekly rates for 

each month. (These auction rates are not the same as 

market rates, although they are similar; the latter are 

rates on outstanding bills, based on dally trading quotations.) 

The auction average rate for each week is dated as of 

the date of issue of the bills, normally a Thursday, even 

though the auction (the time that the price decisions are 

made) normally occurs on the Monday of that week (or, at 

times, on Friday of the preceding week). Therefore, the 

monthly average of the weekly rates sometimes includes 

the results of an auction that occurred late in the preceding month. Information on individual issues may be found 

in the Treasury Bulletin. Data, which are measured in 

terms of percent, are available beginning with 1945 and 

are not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, the auction average rate, series 114, appears 

under the economic process "money and credit." It is 

classified by cyclical timing as a coincider at peaks, a 

lagger at troughs and a lagger overall. 

46 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SERIES 115 is a measure of the average yield on fully 

taxable long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. Bond yields are 

computed by the U.S. Department of the Treasury based 

on prices reported to it by the Federal Reserve Bank of 

New York. Beginning in April 1953, they are based on a 

composite of daily closing bid quotations in the New York 

over-the-counter market. Before April 1953, yields were 

based on the mean of the closing bid-and-ask quotations. 

The monthly series represents monthly averages of 

daily yields and is computed by averaging the daily yields 

for all bonds which are neither due nor callable for a 

specified number of years. Prior to April 1952, the requirement was 15 years; from April 1952 through March 

1953, it was 12 years; and, since April 1953, it has been 

10 years. 

Data begin in 1945, are measured in percentage points, 

and are not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, this series 115 appears under the economic 

process "money and credit." It is classified by cyclical 

timing as a coincider at peaks, a lagger at troughs, and a 

lagger overall. 

FOR the period 1948-59, data for series 116 have been 

computed by the Citibank (formerly First National City 

Bank of New York). It is a weighted average of the reoffering yields on new high-grade corporate bond offerings 

during the month, weighted according to the size of the 

offerings. With the exception of serial bonds, convertible 

debentures, equipment trust certificates, and offerings by 

natural gas transmission or foreign companies, all new 

public offerings rated Aaa, Aa or A by Moody's Investors 

Service are included in this series. Before averaging, the 

yields on Aa and A issues are adjusted to the level of the 

Aaa yields. The Aa yields are adjusted by subtracting from 

them the difference between Moody's average yields on 

Aaa and Aa corporate bonds outstanding during the 

month. The offerings rated A are treated in similar fashion. 

These adjusted yields and the Aaa yields are then 

weighted according to the size of the offering and 

averaged. 

For the more recent period, the series is an estimated 

monthly average of the reoffering yields on new Aa bonds 

and is based on weekly computations by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Prior to June 1973, the series is 

adjusted to reflect bonds without call protection. From 

June 1973 to July 1976, the series is based on bonds 

with five years call protection. Since that time the series 

reflects bond yields regardless of the call protection 

offered. The offerings excluded are the same as those in 

the Citibank series, except for natural gas transmission 

companies which are included in the Treasury data. Although Aa bonds are not the most common among the 

quality ratings, they are numerous enough to provide a 

meaningful series. The limitation of this segment to such 

bonds, using a 3-week moving average, produces a series 

which follows closely the movements of the Citibank series 

but is smoother. 

Data begin in 1948 and are shown as a monthly series 

in BCD. They are measured in percentage points and are 

not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, series 116 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a lagger at both peaks and troughs and as a lagger overall. 

SERIES 117 consists of monthly averages of the Bond 

Buyer weekly index of 20 new municipal bonds. This index 

is an average of the market values (yields) of general obligation bonds of 20 issuing bodies (States, cities, school 

districts). The computations do not necessarily involve a 

specific issues; the yields used are those applicable to 

bond selling near par with about 20 years to maturity. 

The ratings of the issues used in the index are all in the 

top four classifications, according to Moody's Investors 

Service, and are concentrated in the second and third 

classes. Substitutions occasionally have been made in the 

list of components to keep the index abreast of the market. 

Data are available beginning with 1948 and are measured in terms of percent. They are not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, series 117 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as 

a lagger at troughs and overall. It is unclassified at peaks. 

SERIES 118 is derived monthly from a national average of 

secondary market prices for FHA-insured new-home mortgages. Prices are based on opinion reports from FHA 

field offices on transactions in their market areas as of 

the first of each month. 

Since July 1961, yields in this series are based on 

mortgages which have an original maturity of 30 years, 

are assumed to be prepaid in 15 years, and carry FHA's 

maximum permissible interest rate. For the prior period, 

they are based on an original term of 25 years for mortgages assumed to be prepaid in 12 years and also carrying FHA's interest rate. 

Transactions are for immediate delivery in the secondary market and exclude seasoned mortgages or deliveries 

to the Federal National Mortgage Association. Prices used 

are after discounts, commitment fees, and other charges. 

Before 1956, prices represent typical transactions; beginning with 1956, they represent new-home mortgages, first, 

with a 25-year maturity and a 10 percent downpayment 

and, after July 1961, with a 30-year maturity and the minimum downpayment. Before March 1956, the national 

average prices are unweighted; subsequently, the price 

data have been weighted to reflect the probable volume 

of transactions in each office area. 

Data are available beginning with 1949 and are measured in terms of percent^They are not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, series 118 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as a 

lagger at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

BCD 1977 47 

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THIS series 67 represents the weighted average of interest 

rates charged on new short-term (1 year or less) business 

loans or renewals. 

For the period 1948 through 1966, data represent the 

average rate charged on loans or renewals in 19 cities 

during the first 15 days of March, June, September, and 

December. Averages (weighted by the relative importance 

of loan-size groups in loan portfolios of reporting banks 

and business loans volume outstanding on November 20, 

1946) have been taken for each of four loan-size groups 

and combined to obtain a combined average interest rate. 

The survey includes loan sizes of $1,000 to $9,999; 

$10,000 to $99,999; $100,000 to 199,999; and $200,-

000 and over in 66 banks. 

The survey has been revised in 1967 to include 126 

banks in 35 cities. In addition, the reporting period is 

shifted to the first 15 days of February, May, August and 

November; business installment loans and loans to foreign 

businesses are dropped; and loan-size categories are revised to take account of the upward shift in the size of 

business loans. The new loan sizes are $1,000 to $9,999; 

$10,000 to $99,999; $100,000 to $499,999; $500,000 

to $999,999; and $1,000,000 and over. 

The latest revision in this series took place in February 

1971. This revision shortens the reporting period for most 

banks to the first 7 business days in each survey month, 

eliminates accounts-receivable loans from the survey, 

introduces new weights, and refines calculation procedures. 

Quarterly data begin in 1948. They are measured in 

percentage points and are not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, series 67 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing 

as a lagger at both peaks and troughs and as a lagger 

overall. 

Further information concerning this series may be 

found in the March 1949, May 1967, and June 1971 

issues of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. 

the total number of days. Data begin in 1945, are measured in percentage points, and are not seasonally adjusted. 

In BCD, series 109 appears under the economic process 

"money and credit." It is classified by cyclical timing as a 

lagger at both peaks and troughs and as a lagger overall. 

DIFFUSION INDEX OF PROFITS 

Series 969. Diffusion Index of Profits, Manufacturing— 

About 1,000 Corporations 

Source: Citibank (New York) 

THIS index measures the number of manufacturing corporations which have reported increased profits over 1-

and 4-quarter spans. Reports from approximately 1,000 

manufacturing corporations are tabulated by Citibank's 

Economics Department, which computes the diffusion 

index showing the percentage of corporations reporting 

increased profits over the timespan. Data reflect only the 

direction of change, not the magnitude of change. For 

diffusion index purposes, one-half the components listed 

as showing no change are counted as increasing. Data for 

the 1-quarter span index are available beginning with 

1950 and are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the National Bureau of Economic 

Research. Earlier data for 1923-49, compiled from Citibank tabulations by Thor Hultgren of NBER, appear in 

Geoffrey H. Moore, Business Cycle Indicators, Volume II, 

pages 159-160. 

In BCD, series 969 appears under the economic process 

"diffusion indexes." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

DUN & BRADSTREET DIFFUSION INDEXES 

SERIES 109 indicates the interest rate that banks charge 

their most credit-worthy business customers on shortterm loans. The prime rate is the base from which rates 

charged on loans to other business customers are scaled 

upward. The prime rate is not as sensitive as rates on 

money market instruments which fluctuate daily in response to short-term changes in supply and demand. 

Rather, its movements tend to be infrequent, changing 

only by increments of at least one quarter of a percentage 

point. Major banks currently tend to change their prime 

rate in response to increasing differentials with selected 

open market money rates. 

The data for this series are monthly averages computed 

by multiplying the "predominant" prime rate (the rate 

charged by the majority of 30 large money market banks) 

in effect each day during a month by the number of days 

it was in effect, summing these products, and dividing by 

Series 971 . Diffusion Index of New Orders, Manufacturing—About 700 Businessmen Reporting 

Series 972. Diffusion Index of Net Profits, Manufacturing and Trade—About 1,400 Businessmen 

Reporting 

Series 973. Diffusion Index of Net Sales, Manufacturing and Trade—About 1,400 Businessmen 

Reporting 

Series 974. Diffusion Index of Number of Employees, 

Manufacturing and Trade—About 1,400 

Businessmen Reporting 

Series 975. Diffusion Index of Levels of Inventories, 

Manufacturing and Trade—About 1,400 

Businessmen Reporting 

Series 976. Diffusion Index of Selling Prices, Manufacturing—About 700 Businessmen Reporting 

Series 977. Diffusion Index of Selling Prices, Wholesale 

Trade—About 450 Businessmen Reporting 

48 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Series 978. Diffusion Index of Selling Prices, Retail 

Trade—About 250 Businessmen Reporting 

Source: Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 

THESE series are based on a percentage distribution of 

businessmen's actual and expected levels of new orders, 

net profits, net sales, employment, inventories, and selling 

prices relative to levels a year ago. Business executives 

are asked to report quarterly to Dun & Bradstreet, for 

each of the above measures, the level of the preceding 

quarter relative to that of the corresponding quarter 1 

year earlier and the expected level for the coming quarter 

compared with the corresponding quarter 1 year earlier. 

The series presented here represent the percentage reporting (or expecting) an increase plus one half of the percentage reporting (or expecting) no change. 

The series on net profits, net sales, number of employees, and level of inventories (series 972, 973, 974, and 

975 respectively) cover all concerns (i.e., manufacturers, 

wholesalers, and retailers). Data for new orders (series 

976, 977, and 971) refer to manufacturers only. Selling 

price data (series 978) are shown separately for manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Data for all series 

are available beginning with 1950 and are not seasonally 

adjusted. 

In BCD, these series are analytical measures and appear under "diffusion indexes." They are not classified 

as cyclical indicators. 

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 

Series 200. Gross National Product in Current Dollars 

Series 200b. Difference in Gross National Product in 

Current Dollars 

Series 200c. Percent Change in Gross National Product 

in Current Dollar 

Series 50. Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars 

Series 50b. Difference in Gross National Product in 

1972 Dollars 

Series 50c. Percent Change in Gross National Product 

in 1972 Dollars 

Series 310. Implicit Price Deflator, Gross National 

Product 

Series 310c. Percent Change in the Implicit Price Deflator, Gross National Product 

Series 217. Per Capita Gross National Product in 1972 

Dollars 

Series 213. Final Sales (Series 50 Minus Series 30) in 

1972 Dollars 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Gross national product (GNP) is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output. It 

represents the market value of the total output of goods 

and services produced by the Nation's economy before 

deduction of depreciation charges and other allowances 

for business and institutional consumption of fixed capital goods. Output is measured by summing the expenditures involved in obtaining final goods and services by 

the ultimate investors or consumers. Thus, GNP is the 

total of personal consumption expenditures; gross private 

domestic investment, including change in business inventories; net exports of goods and services; and government 

purchases of goods and services. (For a detailed description of each of these categories, see the appropriate 

category in this Handbook.) 

GNP measures the output resulting from the labor and 

property supplied by the Nation's residents (including 

Alaska and Hawaii, beginning with 1960). In addition to 

domestic production, GNP also includes profits repatriated 

from foreign branches of U.S. businesses, earnings of 

American employees of foreign governments and international agencies stationed in the United States, and 

interest and dividends paid by foreigners to Americans; 

and it excludes profits repatriated from U.S. branches of 

foreign businesses and interest and dividends paid by 

Americans to foreigners. 

Hundreds of detailed economic series are used by the 

Bureau of Economic Analysis in deriving GNP. These 

series are evaluated and adjusted and then combined to 

form the components upon which GNP is based. 

SERIES 200 measures the total current-dollar value of 

GNP, as described above. Data are available beginning 

with 1909 annually and 1946 quarterly. Quarterly data 

are seasonally adjusted and are expressed at annual rates. 

In BCD, series 200 appears under the economic category 

"GNP and personal income." It is not classified as a 

cyclical indicator. 

Series 200b measures the year-to-year and quarter-toquarter differences in series 200. Data for this series are 

shown in the BCD table "GNP and personal income" (Al) 

only; they are not shown in graphic form. 

Series 200c measures the percent change in series 

200 from year to year and quarter to quarter. Quarterly 

percent changes are expressed as annual rates. Data for 

this series are shown in the BCD table "GNP and personal 

income" only; they are not shown in graphic form. 

SERIES 50 measures the value of real GNP. Quarterly 

data are seasonally adjusted and are expressed at annual 

rates. It is derived by dividing components of currentdollar GNP by appropriate price indexes in as fine a breakdown as practicable. Seasonal variations are removed from 

the price series used. 

Data are available beginning with 1909 annually and 

1947 quarterly. In BCD, series 50 appears under the 

economic processes "production and income" and "GNP 

and personal income." It is classified by cyclical timing 

as a coincider at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

Series 50b measures year-to-year and quarter-to-quarter differences in series 50. Data for this series are shown 

BCD 1977 49 

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in the BCD table "GNP and personal income" (Al) only; 

they are not shown in graphic form. 

Series 50c measures the percent change in series 50 

from year to year and quarter to quarter. Quarterly percent changes are expressed as annual rates. Data for this 

series are shown in the BCD table "GIMP and personal 

income" (Al) and in the chart "rates of change." 

Data are available beginning with 1929 annually and 

1947 quarterly. In BCD, series 213 appears under the 

economic category "GIMP and personal income." It is not 

classified as a cyclical indicator. 

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 

SERIES 310 is obtained as the ratio of current-dollar GNP 

(series 200) divided by constant dollar GNP (series 50). 

The deflator measures the average price change of a given 

period's output in relation to base-year prices. This series 

is not actually used to deflate GNP, but rather is a byproduct of the process of deflating GNP components on 

a disaggregated basis utilizing detailed price indexes. 

Quarterly implicit price deflators reflect seasonal adjustments. 

Series 310c measures the percent change in series 

310 from year to year and quarter to quarter. Quarterly 

percent changes are expressed as annual rates. 

Data for series 310 and 310c are available beginning 

with 1909 annually and 1947 quarterly. Series 310 is in 

the form of an index: 1972=100. In BCD, these series 

appear under the economic category "price movements." 

They are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

SERIES 217 measures the per capita constant-dollar GNP. 

It is computed by dividing series 50 by the total U.S. population. Residents of the 50 States and the District of 

Columbia are included; but residents of Puerto Rico, 

residents of the outlying areas under U.S. sovereignty or 

jurisdiction, and other American citizens living overseas 

are not. Members of the Armed Forces stationed in 

foreign countries and in the outlying areas are included, 

although dependents living with them are not. Population 

estimates for the first of each month are released monthly 

by the Bureau of the Census. A midquarter population 

estimate is obtained by averaging the estimates for the 

beginning of the second and third months of a given quarter. That average is then divided into the GNP data for 

that quarter to form series 217. 

Data are available beginning with 1909 annually and 

1947 quarterly. In BCD, series 217 appears under the 

economic category "GNP and personal income." It is not 

classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 213 measures that part of gross national product 

which is sold to final users during the period and excludes 

the change in business inventories. Thus, "final sales" is 

the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross 

private domestic fixed investment, net exports of goods 

and services, and government purchases of goods and 

services. Series 213 is computed by subtracting change 

in business inventories in 1972 dollars (series 30) from 

GNP in 1972 dollars (series 50). 

Series 230. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Total, 

in Current Dollars 

Series 231. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Total, 

in 1972 Dollars 

Series 235. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Total, 

As a Percent of Gross National Product 

Series 232. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Durable Goods, in Current Dollars 

Series 233. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Durable Goods, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 55. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Automobiles 

Series 236. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nondurable Goods, in Current Dollars 

Series 238. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nondurable Goods, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 237. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Services, in Current Dollars 

Series 239. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Services, in 1972 Dollars 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

"Personal consumption expenditures" (PCE) measures 

the market value of goods and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the value of food, 

clothing, and financial services received in kind by individuals. The total purchase cost, including general sales 

taxes but exclusive of finance charges, is included in the 

period when the transaction takes place, regardless of 

when payments are made. The estimated rental value of 

owner-occupied homes is included, but home purchases 

(which are classified as gross private domestic investment) are not. 

Personal consumption expenditures for goods and 

services are estimated for benchmark years as final demand components of the input-output table computed by 

the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Estimates of consumption expenditures for goods for years between and beyond 

benchmarks and quarterly consumption expenditures estimates rest chiefly on the trends shown by the Census 

Bureau's retail sales figures by kind of store, quantity 

series and price information, and other data from government and nongovernment sources. 

Periodic comprehensive sources, notably the censuses 

of population and housing, business, and agriculture provide underlying data for components that constitute about 

half the dollar value of consumer services. This information is supplemented by comprehensive annual reports of 

government agencies as well as annual data made avail50 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
able from private sources. Similar source data, though 

much less detailed in scope, together with data from the 

Census monthly selected services receipts, are used to 

derive quarterly estimates of consumer expenditures for 

services. 

Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars 

are obtained by deflating the current-dollar series by appropriate price indexes. The indexes include components 

of the consumer price index compiled by the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics and other price information. 

Data for all current-dollar PCE series are available beginning with 1946; constant-dollar data begin in 1947. 

Data are measured in billions of dollars, annual rate, and 

are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. With the 

exception of series 55, the PCE series are not cyclical 

indicators and appear under "personal consumption expenditures" in BCD. 

SERIES 230 and 231 measure PCE for all of the items 

described above in current and constant dollars. 

SERIES 235 measures the portion of total GNP which 

consists of personal consumption expenditures. It is computed by dividing series 230 by series 200 (total GNP) 

and expressing the result in terms of percent. In BCD, 

it appears under the category "shares of GNP and national income." 

SERIES 232 and 233 measure purchases of goods which 

generally have a useful life of 3 or more years. This 

includes such items as automobiles, furniture, and household appliances. 

SERIES 55 is a component of series 232. It covers purchases of new cars; net purchases of used cars; and purchases of automobile tires, accessories, and parts. In BCD, 

series 55 appears under the economic process "consumption, trade, orders, and deliveries." It is classified 

by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, a coincider at 

troughs, and a coincider overall. 

SERIES 236 and 238 measure purchases of goods which 

generally have a useful life of less than 3 years. This includes; such items, as food, clothing, gasoline, etc. 

SERIES 237 and 239 measure purchases of services; 

such as, housing and household operation, transportation, and medical care. 

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 

Series 240. Gross Private Domestic Investment, Total, 

in Current Dollars 

Series 241. Gross Private Domestic Investment, Total, 

in 1972 Dollars 

Series 242. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, 

Total, in Current Dollars 

Series 243. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, 

Total, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 245. Gross Private Domestic Investment, Change 

in Business Inventories, All Industries, in 

Current Dollars 

Series 30. Gross Private Domestic Investment, Change 

in Business Inventories, All Industries, in 

1972 Dollars 

Series 86. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, 

Total Nonresidential, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 87. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, 

Nonresidential Structures, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 88. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, 

Nonresidential Producers' Durable Equipment, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 89. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, 

Total Residential, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 247. Gross Private Domestic Investment, Change 

in Business Inventories, All Industries, As 

a Percent of Gross National Product 

Series 248. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, 

Nonresidential, As a Percent of Gross National Product 

Series 249. Gross Private Domestic Fixed Investment, 

Residential, As a Percent of Gross National 

Product 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Gross private domestic investment (GPDI) measures 

the net acquisition of fixed capital (excluding land) by 

private business and nonprofit institutions, the net acquisition of owner-occupied and tenant-occupied housing by households, commissions arising in the purchase of 

new and existing fixed assets by the household and business sectors, and the value of the change in the volume 

of inventories held by business. Mobile homes as well 

as fixed-site structures are included. Private investment 

is differentiated from public expenditures (Federal, State, 

and local) on the basis of ownership, not the source of 

finance. Investment is "gross" in that capital consumption allowances are not deducted. Fixed capital goods 

includes structures and producers' durable equipment 

and excludes the change in business inventories. 

"Producers' durable equipment" measures equipment 

expenditures by private business which are chargeable to 

fixed asset accounts and for which depreciation accounts 

normally are maintained by businesses. It includes all 

machinery with an expected economic life of more than 

1 year that is normally charged to capital accounts by 

BCD 1977 51 

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businesses. Transportation equipment (automobiles, 

trucks, etc.), furniture and fixtures, engines and turbines, 

instruments, and other types of machinery and equipment 

are included. Producers' durable equipment also includes 

purchases of used equipment from government and 

dealers' margins on the sale of used equipment, but it is 

reduced to exclude net exports of used equipment and 

sales of scrapped equipment. 

"Nonresidential structures" includes the construction 

of privately-owned nonresidential buildings, farm structures, public utilities, and other types of structures including necessary service facilities; such as, plumbing, 

heating, and elevators. The exploration and development 

of oil and gas wells and mine shafts, commissions arising in the sale of new and existing structures, and net 

purchases of structures from government are included. 

The value of structures also covers certain types of permanent equipment; such as, blast furnaces and nuclear 

reactors, which are primarily built onsite. 

"Residential structures" includes the construction of 

(and additions or alterations to) both housekeeping and 

nonhousekeeping residential buildings, including necessary service facilities such as plumbing, heating, and 

elevators. Nonhousekeeping residential buildings consist 

of hotels, motels, dormitories, and similar facilities. Net 

purchases of residential structures from government and 

commissions arising in the sale of new and existing 

structures are included. 

"Change in business inventories" measures the change 

in the physical volume of inventories valued at average 

prices during the period. Both farm and nonfarm inventories are included. Nonfarm inventories include purchased materials, supplies, goods in process, and finished goods. 

Gross private domestic investment data are part of 

the national income and product accounts compiled by 

the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Beginning with 1960, 

data include estimates for Alaska and Hawaii. Quarterly 

data for these series, which are seasonally adjusted by 

the source agency, are available beginning with 1946 in 

current dollars and with 1947 in constant (1972) dollars. 

The 1972-dollar series are derived principally by dividing components of the seasonally adjusted current-dollar 

series by appropriate price indexes, in as fine a breakdown as possible, and then summing the deflated components. Many seasonally adjusted price indexes, with 

1972 as the base year, are used directly or are combined 

into composites to deflate the various components. The 

quarterly results obtained are adjusted to the annual 

constant-dollar figures, which are prepared in greater 

detail. 

SERIES 240 and 241 are measures of total private domestic investment—the sum of producers' durable equipment, residential and nonresidential structures, and the 

change in business inventories. Deflation of the currentdollar series is carried out by dividing seasonally adjusted 

components, in as fine a breakdown as possible, by appropriate seasonally adjusted price indexes, and then 

summing the deflated components. In BCD, both series 

240 and 241 appear under the economic process "gross 

private domestic investment." They are not classified as 

cyclical indicators. 

SERIES 242 and 243 are measures of the fixed portion 

of total private domestic investment—the sum of producers' durable equipment, residential structures, and 

nonresidential structures. The deflated series (series 

243) is computed in the same way as series 241 above. 

In BCD, both series 242 and 243 appear under the economic process "gross private domestic investment." They 

are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

SERIES 245 and 30 measure the change in the physical 

volume of inventories valued at the average price for the 

current period (series 245) or the average price for the 

base period (series 30). Composite price indexes, constructed from about 150 components of the wholesale 

price index, are used to deflate the book value of nonfarm inventories for about 50 industrial and trade categories. The deflated change in these inventories, which 

make up the nonfarm component of series 30, is reflated 

to arrive at the current value of the change in physical 

volume of nonfarm inventories for series 245. Farm inventories, which are calculated at average prices during 

the period, need no valuation adjustment for the current-dollar series. They are deflated by wholesale price 

indexes to form the constant-dollar series. Nonfarm and 

farm business inventories are summed in both constant 

and current dollars to form series 30 and 245, respectively. 

In BCD, series 30 appears under the economic process 

"inventories and inventory investment." It is classified 

by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. Series 245 appears under the economic process 

"gross private domestic investment." It is not classified 

as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 86 is equal to the sum of producers' durable 

equipment, 1972 dollars (series 88) and nonresidential 

structures, 1972 dollars (series 87). In BCD, series 86 

appears under the economic process "fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical timing as a coincider 

at peaks, a lagger at troughs, and a coincider overall. 

SERIES 87 is the constant-dollar value of nonresidential 

structures investment. Current-dollar data are derived 

from figures on new construction put in place compiled 

by the Bureau of the Census and from other sources. The 

current-dollar series is deflated to 1972 dollars separately 

by type of structure using a selection of construction cost 

and price indexes. (For further information, see the Au52 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
gust 1974 Survey of Current Business, pp. 18-26.) The 

deflated components are then summed to form series 87. 

In BCD, this series appears under the economic process 

"fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical timing as a lagger at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

THE current-dollar series 88, defined above, is deflated 

principally by use of wholesale price indexes compiled 

by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In 1974, an improvement in the deflation process has been introduced, lagging the price indexes used in the deflation to represent 

deliveries for a given month rather than orders taken in 

that month. (For a further explanation, see the July 1975 

Survey of Current Business, pp. 20-23.) In BCD, series 88 

appears under the economic process "fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical timing as a coincider at 

peaks, a lagger at troughs, and a coincider overall. 

SERIES 89 consists of the constant-dollar residential 

structures component of GPDI. The current-dollar series 

is deflated using the Census Bureau's price index for 

single-family housing (excluding land) except for mobile 

homes which is deflated using the wholesale price index 

for mobile homes. In BCD, series 89 appears under the 

economic process "fixed capital investment." It is classified by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and 

overall. 

SERIES 247, 248, and 249 measure the share of GNP 

held by the 3 major components of GPDI. The series are 

computed by dividing current-dollar inventory change 

(series 245), current-dollar nonresidential GPDI, and 

current-dollar residential GPDI, respectively, by currentdollar gross national product (series 200) and expressing 

the resulting ratio in terms of percent. GNP is defined as 

the market value of the total output of goods and services 

produced by the Nation's economy, before deduction of 

depreciation charges and other allowances for business 

and institutional consumption of durable capital goods. 

Series 247, 248, and 249 appear under the economic 

process "shares of GNP and national income." They are 

not classified as cyclical indicators in BCD. 

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS 

AND SERVICES 

Series 260. Government Purchases of Goods and Services, Total, in Current Dollars 

Series 261. Government Purchases of Goods and Services, Total, in 1972 Dollars 

Series 262. Federal Government Purchases of Goods 

and Services in Current Dollars 

Series 263. Federal Government Purchases of Goods 

and Services in 1972 Dollars 

Series 564. Federal Government Purchases of Goods 

and Services for National Defense 

Series 265. Federal Government Purchases of Goods 

and Services As a Percent of Gross National Product 

Series 266. State and Local Government Purchases of 

Goods and Services in Current Dollars 

Series 267. State and Local Government Purchases of 

Goods and Services in 1972 Dollars 

Series 268. State and Local Government Purchases of 

Goods and Services As a Percent of Gross 

National Product 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

"Federal Government purchases of goods and services" 

is estimated quarterly and is based essentially on the 

"Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Expenditures" (MTS) issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. However, since the total of budget outlays reported 

in this publication includes outlays not included in purchases of goods and services, excludes other outlays included in purchases, and is on a different timing basis, 

numerous adjustments must be made. The principal outlay deductions are for transfer payments, grants-in-aid 

to State and local governments, interest paid, subsidies, 

the current surplus of government enterprises, loans, and 

other financial transactions. The principal outlay additions are for off-budget agencies, such as the U.S. Postal 

Service. The principal timing difference is for national 

defense purchases, which are measured mainly on a delivery basis in the NIPA in contrast to a cash disbursements basis in the MTS. 

"State and local government purchases of goods and 

services" is derived primarily on the basis of annual 

"State government finances," "governmental finances," 

"city government finances," "historical statistics on government finances and employment," and other reports 

of the Governments Division and the Construction Statistics Division of the Bureau of the Census. The estimates 

are derived by subtracting from total State and local government expenditures, as reported in "government finances," those outlays that do not represent direct purchases; such as, transfer payments, interest paid, and 

purchases of land. Outlays for goods and services that are 

netted out of total expenditures in "governmental finances," namely government contributions to self-administered insurance funds, are added back as a part of general government employee compensation. The quarterly 

estimates of State and local government purchases are 

based primarily on independent State and local payroll 

and construction data as compiled by BEA and the Bureau 

of the Census. 

In computing the constant-dollar government purchases 

series, an attempt is made to approximate specification pricing for the value added by general government, which is measured by the compensation of government employees. For the Federal Government, indexes 

(1972=100) of employee-hours in the various Civil ServBCD 1977 53 

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ice and wage board grades are given weights that are proportional to 1972 payrolls in those grades. The rationale 

of this weighting system is that average pay by grade reflects such factors as experience and education. The procedure is modified to eliminate differences in average pay 

that do not reflect differences in these factors. Constantdollar compensation for military employees is obtained 

by weighting indexes of employment in the various ranks 

of officers and enlisted men by 1972 payrolls in those 

ranks. For State and local noneducation government employees, unweighted employee-hours are adjusted by use 

of information relating to Federal civilian employees. For 

elementary and secondary school teachers, indexes of 

employee-hours cross-classified by educational attainment 

and experience are given weights proportional to payrolls 

in those cross-classifications. For teachers in higher education, the weighting system takes into account only differences in educational attainment. The weighting system 

for nonteaching employees takes into account occupational categories. 

The methodology for obtaining constant-dollar government purchases from business incorporates information 

on prices and product composition of government purchases. In some cases, price information that relates directly to the kinds of goods and services purchased is 

obtained from government agencies. Detail on the product 

composition of government purchases permits a matching 

of current-dollar purchases with the price indexes used 

to convert them into constant dollars. For the Federal 

Government, this information is derived from the records 

on contracts awarded by the U. S. Department of Defense, 

General Service Administration, and certain other agencies. For State and local government, incorporation of information underlying the 1963 and 1967 input-output 

tables on the industry distribution of the several functional categories of purchases serves a similar purpose. 

Data for all the current-dollar series shown in BCD are 

available beginning with 1946; the constant-dollar data 

begin with 1947. None of the government purchases 

series are classified as cyclical indicators in BCD. 

SERIES 260 and 261 measure the value of government 

purchases by Federal, State, and local governments in 

current and constant dollars. Data are measured in billions of dollars at annual rate. Both series appear under 

the economic process "government purchases of goods 

and services." 

SERIES 262 and 263 measure the value of purchases by 

the Federal Government in current and constant dollars. 

Data are measured in billions of dollars at annual rate. 

In BCD, both series are classified under the economic 

process "government purchases of goods and services." 

included under the "national defense" classification are 

(1) U. S. Department of Defense military functions, (2) 

military assistance to other nations, (3) development and 

control of atomic energy, and (4) stockpiling and certain 

other defense-related activities. Data are measured in 

billions of dollars at an annual rate. In BCD, series 564 

appears under the category "defense indicators." 

SERIES 265 measures the percentage of GNP (series 

200) that consists of Federal Government purchases 

(series 262). GNP represents the market value of the 

total output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. In BCD, series 265 appears under the 

category "shares of GNP and national income." 

SERIES 266 and 267 measure the value of purchases of 

State and local governments in current and constant dollars. Data are measured in billions of dollars at annual 

rate. In BCD, both series appear under the economic 

process "government purchases of goods and services." 

SERIES 564 measures the value of Federal Government 

purchases related to the national defense. The activities 

SERIES 268 measures the percentage of GNP (series 

200) that consists of State and local government purchases (series 266). GNP represents the market value of 

the total output of goods and services produced by the 

Nation's economy. In BCD, series 268 appears under the 

category "shares of GNP and national income." 

IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GOODS 

AND SERVICES 

Series 252. Exports of Goods and Services in Current 

Dollars; National Income and Product accounts 

Series 256. Exports 

dollars; 

counts 

Series 253. Imports of Goods and Services in Current 

Dollars; National Income and Product Accounts 

Series 257. Imports of Goods and Services in 1972 Dollars; National Income and Product Accounts 

Series 250. Net Exports of Goods and Services in Current Dollars; National Income and Product 

Accounts 

Series 255. Net Exports of Goods and Services in 1972 

Dollars; National Income and Product Accounts 

Series 251. Net Exports of Goods and Services As a 

Percent of Gross National Product 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Ecoof Goods and Services in 1972 

National Income and Product Acnomic Analysis 

54 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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The following series are part of BEA's national income 

and product accounts. Included in the export data are 

merchandise exports, military sales of goods and services 

to foreigners, income on U.S. investments abroad, and 

exports of "other services." 

The merchandise import and export data are based on 

official U.S. foreign trade statistics (compiled by the 

Bureau of the Census) with certain adjustments for valuation, coverage, and timing. Imports and exports of the 

U.S. Department of Defense and military grant shipments 

are deducted from the Census Bureau data, and imports 

and exports of silver and nonmonetary gold are added. 

Trade (exports and imports) between U.S. territories and 

foreign countries is also added to the Census Bureau data. 

Military sales of goods and services (exports) represent 

deliveries by U.S. military agencies to foreign countries 

under sales contracts. Military expenditures for goods and 

services (imports) represent expenditures by military personnel in foreign countries and expenditures by the Armed 

Forces for their own use abroad and for transfer to our 

allies. 

The investment income portion of imports includes 

dividends, interest, and branch profits paid on foreign 

direct investments in the United States, as well as interest 

and dividends on U.S. private securities, bank deposits, 

and other assets held by foreigners in the United States. 

U.S. withholding taxes and the foreign share in reinvested 

earnings of their U.S. subsidiaries are not included. The 

investment income portion of exports includes dividends, 

interest, and branch profits received by U.S. corporations 

from their foreign affiliates; dividends and interest on 

foreign securities held by U.S. residents; interest on bank 

and commercial loans; and interest received by the U.S. 

Government on loans to foreign countries. Foreign taxes 

and the U.S. share in undistributed earnings of their 

foreign affiliates are excluded. 

"Other services" imports consist of payments for transportation, travel, royalties and fees, miscellaneous private 

payments, and miscellaneous Government expenditures. 

Exports consist of receipts from transportation; foreign 

visitors to the United States; royalties and fees; miscellaneous private services; and services rendered by the 

U.S. Government, whether paid in cash or provided under 

Government assistance programs. 

The 1972-dollar series shown in BCD are computed 

mainly by deflating the current-dollar series by unit-value 

indexes for merchandise exports and imports prepared 

by the Census Bureau. 

The series shown in BCD come from two separate accounts: the national income and products accounts (NIPA 

"200 " series) and the U.S. international transaction accounts ("600 " series). Quarterly data for all the currentdollar series are available beginning with 1946; quarterly 

constant-dollar data are available beginning with 1947. 

In BCD, the NIPA series appear under the category 

"foreign trade" and the international transactions data 

appear under "goods and services movements (excluding 

transfers under military grants)." None of the foreign 

trade series are classified as cyclical indicators in BCD. 

SERIES 252 and 256 measure the total value of exports, 

as defined above, in current and constant dollars. These 

series are part of the national income and product accounts. 

SERIES 253 and 257 measure the total value of imports, 

as defined above, in current and constant dollars and are 

part of the national income and product accounts. 

SERIES 250 and 255 measure the value of net exports 

from the United States in current and constant dollars 

and are part of the national income and product accounts. 

Net exports are equal to the difference between exports 

and imports, or, series 252 minus series 253 for current 

dollars and series 256 minus series 257 for constant 

dollars. 

SERIES 251 measures the proportion that net exports of 

goods and services represents of gross national product 

(GNP)—series 200. GNP represents the market value of 

the total output of goods and services produced by the 

Nation's economy. In BCD, series 251 appears under the 

category "shares of GNP and national income." 

NATIONAL INCOME 

Series 220. National Income in Current Dollars 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

National income is defined as the aggregate earnings of 

labor and property arising from the current production of 

goods and services by the Nation's economy. These earnings are recorded in the forms in which they accrue to 

residents of the Nation, before taxes on the earnings. 

National income is the sum of five major components: 

Compensation of employees (series 280), proprietors' 

income with IVA and CCAdj (series 282), rental income 

of persons with CCAdj (series 284), corporate profits with 

IVA and CCAdj (series 286), and net interest (series 288). 

For a further description of these components, see the 

individual series. 

National income measures total output in terms of 

payments to the factors of production. It differs from 

GNP (series 200), in that it excludes depreciation and 

other capital consumption allowances, indirect taxes (e.g. 

sales and excise taxes), business transfer payments, and 

the current surplus of government enterprises. Subsidies 

are included. 

BCD 1977 55 

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Data include estimates for the 50 States and the District of Columbia; prior to 1960, Alaska and Hawaii are 

excluded. 

Data are available beginning with 1946 and are measured in billions of dollars, annual rate. They are compiled 

from component series. 

In BCD, series 220 appears under the category 

"national income and its components." It is not classified 

as a cyclical indicator. 

COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 

Series 280. Compensation of Employees 

Series 64. Compensation of Employees As a Percent 

of National Income 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Series 345. Index of Average Hourly Compensation, All 

Employees, Nonfarm Business Sector 

Series 345c. Percent Change in Average Hourly Compensation 

Series 346. Index of Real Average Hourly Compensation, All Employees, Nonfarm Business 

Sector 

Series 346c. Percent Change in Real Average Hourly 

Compensation 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics 

Compensation of employees is the total income accruing to employees as payment for their work. It is the sum 

of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and 

salaries. 

"Wages and Salaries" include both monetary payments 

to employees (including tips, commissions, bonuses, etc.) 

and payments in kind which represent income to the employee. 

"Supplements to wages and salaries" consists of employer contributions for social insurance and other labor 

income. Employer contributions for social insurance 

include employer payments under social security, Federal 

and State unemployment insurance, railroad retirement 

and unemployment insurance, government retirement, 

publicly administered workmen's compensation, and several minor social insurance programs. Other labor income 

includes employer contributions to private pension, health, 

unemployment, welfare and workmen's compensation 

funds; directors' fees; and several minor items. 

"Compensation of employees" is the largest component 

of national income. Data are available beginning with 

1947; beginning 1960, estimates include data for Alaska 

and Hawaii. 

Total Compensation 

SERIES 280 measures the total compensation, as defined 

above. Data are measured in billions of dollars, annual 

rate. In BCD, series 280 appears under the category 

"national income and its components." It is not classified 

as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 64 measures the proportion of total national income that consists of employee compensation. National 

income is defined as the aggregate earnings of labor and 

property which arise from the current production of goods 

and services by the Nation's economy. Series 64 is computed by dividing total compensation (series 280) by total 

national income (series 220) and expressing the resulting 

ratio in terms of percent. In BCD, series 64 appears under 

the economic process "prices, costs, and profits." It is 

classified by cyclical timing as a lagger at peaks, troughs, 

and overall. 

Average Hourly Compensation 

SERIES 345 reflects the percent change in average hourly 

compensation earned by all persons in an employee status 

in the private nonfarm business economy, including government enterprises. 

The series is computed by BLS by dividing seasonally 

adjusted total compensation compiled by BEA (described 

above) by seasonally adjusted labor input (employee-hours) 

estimates. This series is then converted into an index, 

using a base of 1967=100. 

Series 345c measures the change in series 345 over 1-

and 4-quarter spans. Percent changes are taken at annual 

rate. 

SERIES 346 measures the spending power of average 

hourly compensation. It is computed by deflating series 

345 by the unpublished seasonally adjusted consumer 

price index for all items. 

Series 346c measures the change in series 346 over 

1- and 4-quarter spans. Percent changes are taken at 

annual rate. 

All of the quarterly average hourly compensation series 

are available beginning with 1949. In BCD, they appear 

under the category "wages and productivity" and are not 

classified as cyclical indicators. 

PROPRIETORS1 INCOME 

Series 282. Proprietors1 Income With Inventory Valuation and Capital Consumption Adjustments 

Series 283. Proprietors' Income With Inventory Valuation and Capital Consumption Adjustments 

As a Percent of National Income 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Proprietors' income measures the monetary earnings 

and income in kind of sole proprietorships, partnerships, 

56 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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and producers' cooperatives from their current business 

operations. Supplementary income of individuals from the 

rental of property is omitted. No deduction is made for 

depletion, and capital gains or losses are excluded. 

Noncorporate inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (which are identical in concept to corporate IVA and CCAdj) are included. "Inventory valuation 

adjustment" (IVA) converts the book value of inventories 

reported by proprietors to replacement cost valuation. 

"Capital consumption adjustment" (CCAdj) converts the 

depreciation to a replacement cost valuation and to uniform service lives and depreciation formulas. For a more 

complete description of the concepts of IVA and CCAdj, 

see the segment on Corporate Profits in this Handbook. 

Data for proprietors' income are available beginning 

with 1946. 

SERIES 282 measures total current-dollar proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, as described above. Data are 

measured in billions of dollars, annual rate. In BCD, it appears under the category "national income and its components." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 283 measures the proportion of national income 

(series 220) accounted for by proprietors' income (series 

282). It is computed by dividing series 282 by series 220 

and converting the resulting ratio to a percent. In BCD, 

series 283 appears under the category "shares of GNP 

and national income." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

RENTAL INCOME OF PERSONS 

Series 284. Rental Income of Persons With Capital 

Consumption Adjustment 

Series 285. Rental Income of Persons With Capital 

Consumption Adjustment As a Percent of 

National Income 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

"Rental income of persons" is the total of the monetary earnings of persons from the rental of real property; 

the imputed net rental income of owner-occupants of nonfarm dwellings; and the royalties received by persons 

from patents, copyrights, and rights to natural resources. 

The income of persons primarily engaged in the real 

estate business is excluded. "Capital consumption adjustment" takes into account the replacement costs of 

capital goods. (For a further explanation of capital consumption adjustment, see the section in this Handbook 

on Corporate Profits.) 

Rental income data are available beginning with 1946 

and are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

SERIES 284 measures total current-dollar rental income, 

as described above. Data are measured in billions of 

dollars, annual rate. In BCD, this series appears under the 

category "national income and its components." It is 

not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 285 measures the proportion of national income 

accounted for by series 284. It is computed by dividing 

rental income (series 284) by national income (series 

220) and expressing the resulting ratio in terms of percent. In BCD, series 285 appears under the category 

"shares of GNP and national income." It is not classified 

as a cyclical indicator. 

NET INTEREST 

Series 288. Net Interest 

Series 289. Net Interest As a Percent of National Income 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Net interest is the excess of interest payments by the 

U. S. business system over its interest receipts, plus the 

excess of interest received from abroad over interest paid 

abroad. Interest payments by consumers and government, 

including government enterprises, are not included since 

they are not considered factor costs of production. Therefore, net interest is less than the total interest accruing 

to persons from business and from abroad by the amount 

of consumer and government interest received by business. 

In addition to monetary interest flows, net interest includes imputed interest based on the operations of financial intermediaries. The imputed interest consists of the 

value of financial services received by persons and government without explicit payment and property income 

received by noninsured pension funds and life insurance 

companies less profits of life insurance companies. The 

portion of these interest flows that is allocated to consumers and government is a component of net interest, 

and the associated service charges are included in personal consumption expenditures and government purchases. 

Net interest data are available beginning with 1946 and 

are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

SERIES 288 measures total net interest, as defined above. 

Data are measured in billions of dollars, annual rate. In 

BCD it appears under the category "national income and 

its components." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

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SERIES 289 measures the proportion that net interest 

represents of total national income. It is computed by 

dividing total net interest (series 288) by national income 

(series 220) and expressing the resulting ratio in terms 

of percent. In BCD, series 289 appears under the category "shares of GNP and national income." It is not 

classified as a cyclical indicator. 

GROSS SAVING 

Series 290. Gross Saving—Private Saving Plus Government Surplus or Deficit 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

GROSS saving is the total of personal saving (series 292), 

undistributed corporate profits and capital consumption 

allowances (these two components forming net cash flow, 

series 34 and 35), inventory valuation adjustment, the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government surplus or deficit (series 298), and 

net capital grants received by the United States. (For a 

further explanation of individual components see the individual series in this Handbook.) Gross saving plus the 

statistical discrepancy are equal to gross private domestic 

investment (series 240) plus net foreign investment. 

Data are available beginning with 1946 and are measured in billions of dollars, annual rate. They are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

In BCD, gross saving appears under the category "saving." it is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

PERSONAL SAVING 

Series 292. Personal Saving 

Series 293. Personal Saving Rate—Personal Saving As 

a Percent of Disposable Personal Income 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

Personal saving measures the current saving of individuals (including owners of unincorporated businesses); 

nonprofit institutions; and private health, welfare, and 

trust funds. It represents the acquisition of financial 

claims (such as, cash, deposits, and equities in securities, 

private insurance, and private pension funds) less the net 

increase in indebtedness, plus the acquisition of physical 

assets net of capital consumption allowances. Thus, it includes net increases of persons' equities in nonfarm residences and in farms and other unincorporated businesses. 

Personal saving is equal to the excess of disposable 

personal income (series 224) over personal outlays. Personal outlays is the sum of personal consumption expenditures (series 230), interest paid by consumers, and net 

personal transfer payments to foreigners (which consists 

of personal remittances in cash and in kind sent abroad 

less such remittances from abroad). 

Personal saving data are available beginning with 1946 

and are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

SERIES 292 measures aggregate personal saving, as defined above. Data are measured in billions of dollars, annual rate. In BCD, personal saving appears under the category "saving/' It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

SERIES 293 measures the proportion of disposable personal income that has been saved. This series is computed 

by dividing total personal saving (series 292) by disposable personal income (series 224) and converting the resulting ratio into percent. In BCD, series 293 appears 

under the category "saving." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

GOVERNMENT SAVING 

Series 298. Government Surplus or Deficit, Total 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

GOVERNMENT saving measures the difference between 

government receipts and government expenditures as recorded in the national income and product accounts. Federal, State, and local governments are included in this 

series. This series is computed by adding the Federal surplus or deficit (series 500) to the State and local government surplus or deficit (series 510). 

Government receipts consist of personal tax and nontax 

receipts, corporate profits tax accruals, indirect business 

tax and nontax accruals, and contributions for social insurance. In addition, State and local government receipts 

include Federal grants-in-aid. Government expenditures 

include purchases of goods and services (series 260), 

transfer payments, net interest paid, and subsidies less 

the current surplus of government enterprises. Federal 

expenditures also included grants-in-aid to State and local 

governments. For a more complete description of government receipts and expenditures, see the Government Receipts and Expenditures section in this Handbook. 

Data are available beginning with 1946 and are measured in billions of dollars, annual rate. They are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 

In BCD, series 298 appears under the category "saving." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

FIXED WEIGHTED PRICE INDEX 

Series 311 . Fixed Weighted Price Index, Gross Business 

Product 

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Series 311c. Percent Change of Fixed Weighted Price 

Index, Gross Business Product 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

THIS series is an index obtained by weighting together 

the prices of all goods and services that make up gross 

domestic business product, which is that part of the 

gross national product held by the domestic business 

sector. "Business" consists of all organizations that produce goods and services for sale at a price intended at 

least to approximate costs of production. Basically, it 

covers private enterprises (both corporate and noncorporate) organized for profit, including farm operators, 

the independent professions, and lessors of real property. 

Mutual financial institutions, private noninsured pension 

funds, cooperatives, nonprofit organizations serving business, Federal Reserve banks, federally-sponsored credit 

agencies, and government enterprises are included also. 

Owner-occupied dwellings and buildings owned by nonprofit institutions serving individuals are considered to be 

business establishments selling their current services to 

their owners. The domestic business sector accounts for 

the bulk of GNP and, like GNP, can be measured either 

in terms of the value of the goods and services it produces 

or in terms of the costs incurred and the profits earned in 

its production.-

The fixed weighted price index is formed by weighting 

together the prices of all goods and services that make up 

gross domestic business product, using 1972 constantdollar values as weights. This differs from the implicit 

price deflator for gross domestic business product, which 

is based on shifting weights. 

In BCD, this series is shown as an index (1972=100) 

and as a percent change (series 311c), at annual rate, 

over 1-quarter spans. Data are seasonally adjusted by the 

source agency and are available beginning with 1958. 

The fixed weighted price index appears under the category "price movements" in BCD. It is not classified as a 

cyclical indicator. 

CONSUMER PRICES 

Series 320. Index of Consumer Prices (CPI), All Items 

Series 320c. Percent Change in CPI, All Items 

Series 322. Index of Consumer Prices, Food 

Series 322c. Percent Change in CPI, Food 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change 

in prices of a fixed market basket of goods and services 

purchased by urban wage earners and clerical workers, 

both families and single persons. "Families" refers to 

family units or to two or more persons living as a financial 

unit. "Single persons" refers to individuals living alone or 

BCD 1977 

in a household with others from whom they are financially 

independent. 

The index represents price changes for everything people buy for a living—food, clothing, automobiles, homes, 

house furnishings, household supplies, fuel, drugs, and 

recreational goods; fees to doctors, lawyers, and beauty 

shops; and rent, repair costs, transportation fares, public 

utility rates, etc. All taxes (sales, excise, real estate, etc.) 

directly associated with the purchase and continued ownership of an item are included in the price. Income and 

other personal taxes not associated with prices of specific 

goods are excluded. The index measures only prices and 

does not take into account changes due to quantity or 

quality differences. 

Data are collected from a sample of 56 Standard 

Metropolitan Statistical Areas structured by region and 

size. Prices of approximately 400 items are obtained in 

the sample cities by personal visits to stores and service 

establishments where wage and clerical workers buy 

goods and services—chain stores, independent grocery 

stores, department and specialty stores, restaurants, professional people, and repair and service shops. Rental 

rates are obtained from tenants. Prices are weighted then 

according to size of the sample city and importance of 

the sample item. These weighted prices are combined to 

form an index with 1967=100 as the reference base. 

In BCD, consumer price indexes appear under "price 

movements." They are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

SERIES 320 measures the change in prices for all items, 

as described above. Data are available beginning with 

1945 and are not adjusted for seasonal variation. 

Series 320c measures the percent change in the unpublished seasonally adjusted CPI for all items. Changes 

are taken at a monthly rate over 1-month spans and at a 

compound annual rate over 6-month spans. Data are 

available beginning with 1947. 

SERIES 322 measures price changes of all food items, 

whether consumed at home or away from home. Alcoholic 

beverages are not included as food. Data available beginning with 1947 and are seasonally adjusted. 

Series 322c measures percent changes in series 322 

over 1- and 6-month spans. Changes are taken at a 

monthly rate over 1-month spans and at a compound 

annual rate over 6-month spans. Data are available beginning with 1974. 

WHOLESALE PRICES 

Series 330. Index of Wholesale Prices (WPI), All Commodities 

Series 330c. Percent Change in WPI, All Commodities 

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Series 332c. 

Series 

Series 

Series 

Series 

Series 

333. 

333c. 

334. 

334c. 

Series 331. Index of Wholesale Prices, Crude Materials for Further Processing 

Series 331c. Percent Change in WPI, Crude Materials 

Series 332. Index of Wholesale Prices, Intermediate 

Materials, Supplies, and Components 

Percent Change in WPI, Intermediate Materials 

Index of Wholesale Prices, Producer Finished Goods 

Percent Change in WPI, Producer Finished 

Goods 

Index of Wholesale Prices, Consumer Finished Goods 

Percent Change in WPI, Consumer Finished Goods 

92. Change in Sensitive Prices (WPI of Crude 

Materials Excluding Foods, Feeds, and 

Fibers) (Smoothed) 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics 

Wholesale Price Indexes (WPI) measure price changes 

for goods sold in primary markets in the United States 

(including Alaska and Hawaii). They are designed to 

measure "real" or "pure" price changes; i.e., price 

changes not influenced by changes in quality, quantity, 

shipping terms, product mix, etc. 

The term "wholesale" refers to sales in large quantities, not to prices received by wholesalers, jobbers, or 

distributors. Commodities produced in the United States 

as well as those imported for sale are included. All systematic production (including civilian goods normally purchased by the Government) is represented in the universe. 

The universe covers manufactured and processed goods 

and the output of industries classified as manufacturing, 

agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, gas and electricity, 

public utilities, and goods competitive with those made in 

the producing sector, such as waste paper and scrap 

materials. In addition, Government sales of some commodities (e.g., electric power) are included if they can be 

considered competitive with free market sales. Excluded 

from the universe are individually priced items (such as 

works of art), goods transferred between establishments 

owned by the same company, goods sold at retail by 

producer-owned retail establishments, and military goods. 

Commodities included in the indexes are defined by 

precise specifications which incorporate the principal 

price-determining characteristics of the commodities. 

Insofar as possible, prices used are those applicable to 

the first significant transaction in the United States. Most 

of the quotations are selling prices of representative 

manufacturers or other producers or are prices quoted on 

organized exchanges or markets. Companies are requested to report all discounts, allowances, rebates, free 

deals, etc., so that the resulting price is the actual selling 

price of the commodity. List or book prices are used if 

transaction prices are unobtainable. Prices are generally 

f.o.b. production or central marketing point to avoid reflection of changes in transportation costs. However, delivered prices are included when it is the customary 

practice of the industry to quote on this basis. Subsidies 

to the producer and excise taxes, which are not considered part of the price, are excluded; but duties on imported goods are included as part of the selling price. 

Transactions for the same item at later stages of distribution are not included. However, as raw materials are 

transformed into semifinished or finished goods, the resulting products are represented. 

Generally, prices refer to a particular day of the 

month—Tuesday of the week containing the 13th of the 

month. For some commodities (particularly farm products), a day other than Tuesday is used because it is 

considered more representative. For some other products, 

principally fuels, an average of prices throughout the 

month is used and results in 1- or 2-month lags between 

the price reference month and the index month. 

The monthly index is based on a sample of commodities, a sample of specifications (descriptions), and a sample of reporters. The price data are combined using 

weights based on value of shipments. WPI weights are 

periodically revised when the industrial censuses become 

available. New weights from the 1972 Industrial Census 

were incorporated in January 1976. The major sources of 

the value data are the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Mines and Bureau of Fisheries, U.S. Department of Interior; and U.S. Department 

of Agriculture. Other sources of data, such as trade associations, are used also. Import data are obtained from the 

Department of Commerce. The stage-of-processing (SOP) 

indexes regroup each item priced in the WPI according to 

the amount of processing, manufacturing, or assembling 

it undergoes before entering the market. Allocations 

among the stages of processing are currently from an 

interindustry transaction study made for the year 1976 

by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of 

Commerce. 

With the exception of the percent change in sensitive 

prices (series 92) all of the wholesale price indexes shown 

in BCD are classified under the economic process "price 

movements" and are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

All of the WPIs shown in BCD are on a 1967=100 base; 

and, with the exception of the index for all commodities 

(series 330), all of them are seasonally adjusted by BEA 

using seasonal factors provided by the BLS. 

SERIES 330 includes all goods produced or imported for 

sale in primary markets in the United States. Data are 

available beginning with 1945. 

Series 330c measures the percent change, over 1- and 

6-month spans, in series 330. Data for changes over both 

timespans are published in the BCD tables; only 6-month 

percent changes are plotted on the charts. 

SERIES 331 includes materials that are entering the 

economy for the first time, having undergone no processing other than that required to obtain them in their origi60 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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nal form and prepare them for marketing. Products of 

farms, mines, fisheries, quarries, and well operations are 

included, as are waste materials which can replace raw 

materials. Both foodstuffs and nonfood materials are included. Some crude materials, however—for example, 

food or coal going directly to the consumer—are included 

in the consumer finished goods category. Data are available beginning with April 1974. 

Series 331c measures the percent change, over 1- and 

6-month spans, in series 331 . Data for changes over both 

timespans are published in the BCD tables; only 6-month 

percent changes are plotted on the charts. 

SERIES 332 includes those commodities that flow between manufacturing industries before finally reaching the 

ultimate consumer after further changes in form. Data are 

available beginning with April 1947. 

Series 332c measures the percent change, over 1- and 

6-month spans, in series 332. Data for changes over both 

timespans are published in the BCD tables; only 6-month 

percent changes are plotted on the charts. 

SERIES 333 includes commodities in their final state 

ready for use by the producer—i.e., capital equipment. 

These are commodities used in industry or commerce to 

produce or transport other commodities and include machine tools, trucks, and farm equipment. Data are available beginning with April 1947. 

Series 333c measures the percent change, over 1- and 

6-month spans, in series 333. Data for changes over both 

timespans are published in the BCD tables; only 6-month 

percent changes are plotted on the charts. 

SERIES 334 includes commodities—both durable and 

nondurable goods—in their final state ready for use by 

the consumer. Data are available beginning with April 

1947. 

Series 334c measures the percent change, over 1- and 

6-month spans, in series 334. Data for changes over both 

timespans are published in the BCD tables; only 6-month 

percent changes are plotted on the charts. 

SERIES 92 measures the change in a price index which 

is a component of series 331 (WPI, crude materials). Included are hides and skins, potash, crude natural rubber, 

wastepaper, iron ore, iron and steel scrap, nonferrous 

metal scrap, sand, gravel and crushed stone, bituminous 

coal, anthracite coal, natural gas, and crude petroleum. 

The series is shown as a percent change over 1-month 

spans and as a 4-term weighted (1,2,2,1) moving average 

placed at the terminal month of the span. Data are available beginning with 1948. 

In BCD, series 92 appears under the economic process 

"prices, costs, and profits." It is classified by cyclical timing as a leader at peaks, troughs, and overall. 

OUTPUT PER HOUR 

Series 370. Index of Output Per Hour, All Persons, 

Private Business Sector 

Series 370c. Percent Change in Output Per Hour 

Series 358. Index of Output Per Hour, All Persons, 

Nonfarm Business Sector 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics 

Productivity measures the constant-dollar valuation of 

final goods and services produced within a certain time 

period in relation to the hours paid for, including hours 

paid for holidays, vacation, and sick leave. The indexes 

show the change in the ratio of output to labor input 

(hours of all persons—employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers). Index changes through time reflect 

changes in the effectiveness of the combination of labor, 

capital, raw materials, and all other factors of production 

in producing current levels of output. 

The output concept used in preparing the productivity 

indexes is real gross domestic product, which is the 1972-

dollar market value of the goods and services produced 

by labor and property located in the United States. The 

primary source of hours and employment data is the BLS 

establishment payroll survey which provides data on employment (all employees and production or nonsupervisory 

workers) and average weekly hours of production workers 

in nonagricultural establishments. Hours are computed 

separately for each industry and then aggregated. (For 

further explanation, see Employment, Hours, and Earnings 

in this Handbook.) Where establishment data are not 

available (farm, proprietors, and unpaid family workers), 

data from the national income accounts or the current 

population survey (CPS) are used as supplements to 

develop employment and hours estimates for all persons 

engaged in the private business sector. Weekly hours data 

from the CPS are adjusted to eliminate distortions due to 

holidays. 

Quarterly data for both productivity series are available 

beginning with 1947 and are in the form of an index: 

1967=100. They are seasonally adjusted by the source 

agency. 

In BCD, output per hour appears under the category 

"wages and productivity." The series are not classified as 

cyclical indicators. 

SERIES 370 measures productivity for the private business sector as described above. Government, private 

household, rest of the world, gross housing product of 

owner-occupied dwellings, and nonprofit institution sectors are excluded from the data. 

Series 370c measures the percent change at annual 

rate in series 370 over 1- and 4-quarter spans. 

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SERIES 358 measures the productivity of the nonfarm 

business sector of the economy. Industries included in the 

data are: Mining; construction; trade; manufacturing; 

finance, insurance, and real estate; electric, gas and 

sanitary services; other services; communication; transportation; and government enterprises. General government, household workers, and nonprofit institutions are 

excluded. 

WAGE AND BENEFIT DECISIONS 

Series 348. Negotiated Wage and Benefit Decisions, Alt 

Industries—First Year Average (Mean) 

Changes 

Series 349. Negotiated Wage and Benefit Decisions, All 

Industries—Average (Mean) Changes Over 

Life of Contract 

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics 

The data for these series are obtained primarily from 

secondary sources; such as, newspapers, periodicals, and 

union, management and trade publications. When these 

sources are inadequate, they are supplemented by direct 

inquiries to the companies and unions involved. The averages are worker-weighted and are computed from frequency distributions in which all workers affected by a 

decision are entered at the average for the group. Averages include all decisions—whether to increase, decrease, 

or make no change in wages and benefits. 

Data are available beginning with the first quarter of 

1968 and are released by BLS in a press release issued 

toward the end of the month following the close of each 

quarter. The data are also regularly published in Current 

Wage Developments and the Monthly Labor Review. Percent changes are shown at an annual rate and have not 

been adjusted for seasonal variation. 

In BCD, these series appear under the category "wages 

and productivity." They are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

SERIES 348 measures changes in general wage rates and 

fringe benefits in collective bargaining settlements involving 5,000 or more workers in the private nonfarm sector 

and scheduled within 12 months of the effective date of 

the agreements. 

SERIES 349 shows the annual rates of increases in settlements reached in a given time period. These rates are 

computed by estimating the increase in hourly costs of 

wages and benefits by the end of the contract period and 

assuming that the changes go into effect at a uniform 

rate during the life of the contract. 

GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES 

Series 501. Federal Government Receipts; National Income and Product Accounts 

Series 511. State and Local Government Receipts; National Income and Product Accounts 

Series 502. Federal Government Expenditures; National Income and Product Accounts 

Series 512. State and Local Government Expenditures; 

National Income and Product Accounts 

Series 500. Federal Government Surplus or Deficit; National Income and Product Accounts 

Series 510. State and Local Government Surplus or 

Deficit; National Income and Product 

Accounts 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

SERIES 501 and 511, government receipts, consist of 

personal tax and nontax receipts, corporate profits tax 

accruals, indirect business tax and nontax accruals, and 

contributions for social insurance. In addition, State and 

local government receipts include Federal grants-in-aid. 

"Personal tax and nontax receipts" consists of individual tax payments (net of refunds), except personal 

contributions for social insurance, that are not chargeable 

to business expense, and of certain other personal payments to government that it is convenient to treat like 

taxes. Personal tax includes income, estate and gift, and 

personal property taxes. Nontaxes include passport fees, 

fines and penalties, donations, and tuitions and fees paid 

to schools and hospitals operated by government. 

"Corporate profits tax accruals" is Federal, State, and 

local taxes on corporate income. Federal corporate profits 

tax accruals include the payment to the Treasury of earnings by the Federal Reserve Board. 

"Indirect business tax and nontax accruals" consists of 

tax liabilities (except employer contributions for social 

insurance) that are chargeable to business expense in the 

calculation of profit-type incomes, and of certain other 

liabilities to government that it is convenient to treat like 

taxes. Indirect business taxes include sales, excise, and 

property taxes and custom duties. Nontax includes regulatory and inspection fees, special assessments, fines and 

penalties, rents and royalties, and donations. 

"Contributions for social insurance" includes payments 

by employees, self-employed persons, and other individuals who participate in the following programs: Federal 

old-age, survivors', disability, and hospital insurance; 

supplementary medical insurance; State unemployment 

insurance; railroad retirement and unemployment insurance; government retirement; publicly administered workmen's compensation; and veterans' life insurance. 

Data for both government receipts series are measured 

in billions of dollars, annual rate, and are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for series 501 are 

available beginning with 1946; data for series 511 begin 

with 1948. 

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In BCD, both series 501 and 511 appear under "receipts and expenditures." They are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

IN the NIPA's, government expenditures (series 502 and 

512) consist of purchases of goods and services, transfer 

payments, net interest paid, and subsidies less current 

surplus of government enterprises. In addition, Federal 

expenditures include grants-in-aid to State and local 

governments. 

"Purchases of goods and services" is the compensation 

of government employees and purchases from business 

and from abroad. It includes gross investment by government enterprises, but excludes their current outlays. It 

includes net purchases of used goods, but excludes sales 

and purchases of land and financial assets. 

"Transfer payments" include certain payments to persons and to foreigners. "Transfer payments to persons," 

generally in monetary form, is income payments for which 

no current services are rendered. Included are payments 

under the following programs: Federal old-age, survivors', 

disability, and hospital insurance; supplementary medical 

insurance; State unemployment insurance; railroad retirement and unemployment insurance; government retirement; workmen's compensation; veterans' benefits, including life insurance; food stamps; supplemental security 

income; and direct relief. Government payments to nonprofit institutions, other than for work under research anfi 

development contracts, is included also. "Transfer payments to foreigners" consists of Federal Government nonmilitary grants to foreign governments in cash and in 

kind, and of Federal Government payments (mainly retirement benefits) to former residents of the United States. 

"Grants-in-aid to State and local governments" is Federal payments to these governments, other than for net 

interest payments. Major grants-in-aid are for public 

assistance, highways, education, general revenue sharing, 

and environmental protection. Also included are payments 

to public educational institutions for research and development contracts. 

''Net interest paid" is interest paid by government less 

interest received. 

"Subsidies" is the monetary grants paid by government 

to business, including government enterprises at another 

level of government. 

"The current surplus of government enterprises" is 

their sales receipts less current outlays. In the calculation of the current surplus, no deduction is made for 

depreciation charges or for net interest paid. Subsidies 

and current surplus often are combined because government enterprises may incur deficits, in lieu of direct subsidies, by selling goods at lower than market prices. This 

is also the major reason for not counting the current 

surplus as a profit-type income and, accordingly, as a 

part of factor charges. 

Data for both government expenditures series are 

measured in billions of dollars, annual rate, and are 

seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for series 

502 are available beginning with 1946; data for series 

512 begin with 1948. 

In BCD, both series 502 and 512 appear under "receipts and expenditures." They are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

"SURPLUS or deficit, national income and product 

accounts" (series 500 and 510) is government expenditures less government receipts. It also may be viewed as 

the net acquisition of financial assets by general government and government enterprises, and net government 

purchases of land and of rights to government-owned 

land, including oil resources. 

Government purchases of goods and services is the 

only category of government expenditures which is included directly in the gross national product (GNP). 

Other expenditure categories do enter into the income 

stream and are reflected in GNP when spent by the recipients. For example, transfer payments to persons are 

included in personal income and, when spent, are included in GNP as personal consumption expenditures. 

Data for both government surplus and deficit series are 

measured in billions of dollars, annual rate, and are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for series 500 

are available beginning with 1946; data for series 510 

begin with 1948. 

In BCD, both series 500 and 510 appear under "receipts and expenditures." They are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OBLIGATIONS 

Series 516. Defense Department Obligations Incurred— 

Total Excluding Military Assistance 

Source: U.S. Department of Defense, OSD Comptroller, 

Directorate for Program Financial Control 

THIS series measures the amounts recorded in official 

accounting records of the military departments and defense agencies from source documents; such as, signed 

contracts or any instrument which legally binds the Government to payment of funds. Coverage extends only to 

general fund accounts; obligations incurred in revolving 

funds and trust funds are excluded. Obligations resulting 

from the placement of an order for materials or services 

by one Government agency at the request of another are 

counted twice—when the request is made and when the 

order is placed with a private supplier. This duplication 

averages about 9 percent of total obligations. This series, 

therefore, is not exactly comparable to U.S. Department 

of Defense outlays which are net of payments to one 

Government unit by another. 

Total obligations cover the following appropriations 

accounts: Military personnel; retired pay; operations and 

maintenance; procurement; research, development, test, 

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and evaluation; military construction; family housing; and 

civil defense and special foreign currency. Military assistance and international military education and training 

are excluded from this series. 

Data are available beginning with 1954 and are measured in millions of dollars. They are adjusted for seasonal 

variation by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

In BCD, defense obligations appears under the category "defense indicators." It is not classified as a cyclical 

indicator. 

MILITARY PRIME CONTRACTS 

Series 525. Military Prime Contract Awards to U.S. 

Business Firms and Institutions 

Source: U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, 

Directorate for Management Information Operations and Control 

THIS series measures contract awards (legally binding 

instruments) executed by the U.S. Department of Defense, 

military departments or other components to obtain 

equipment, supplies, research and development, services, 

or construction. Both new instruments and modifications 

or cancellations of instruments are included; however, 

modifications of $10,000 or less are not included. 

Awards paid from post exchange or similar nonappropriated funds, and contracts for civil functions (such as 

flood control or river and harbor work performed by the 

Army Corps of Engineers) are not included. Project orders 

issued to defense-owned-and-operated establishments, 

such as shipyards and arsenals, are not included, but 

contracts executed by such establishments are. 

The series includes awards made by U.S. Department 

of Defense components on behalf of other Federal agencies (e.g., National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and on behalf of foreign governments under both 

military assistance grant-aid and sales arrangements. It 

also includes orders written by U.S. Department of Defense components requesting a Federal agency to furnish 

supplies or services. 

Monthly data are available beginning with 1951 and 

are measured in millions of dollars. They are adjusted for 

seasonal variation by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

In BCD, series 525 appears under the category "defense indicators." It is not classified as a cyclical indicator. 

FOREIGN TRADE 

Series 602. Exports, Excluding Military Aid Shipments, 

Total 

Series 604. Exports of Agricultural Products, 

Series 606. Exports of Nonelectrical Machinery 

Series 612. General Imports, Total 

Series 614. Imports of Petroleum and Petroleum Products 

Series 616. Imports of Automobiles and Parts 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the 

Census 

The following series measure the dollar value of shipments of domestic and foreign merchandise between the 

U.S. customs area and foreign countries, without regard 

to the method of financing or whether the exportation 

takes place in connection with a commercial transaction. 

The U.S. customs area includes the 50 States, the District 

of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. U.S. possessions are not 

included in the U.S. customs area, and shipments between the United States and its possessions are not inincluded in the statistics. 

Domestic merchandise exports include commodities 

which are grown, produced, or manufactured in the 

United States. Foreign merchandise imported into the 

United States and subsequently exported after undergoing 

some change in form or being enhanced in value as a 

result of further manufacture in the United States is 

included also. 

Exports of foreign merchandise include merchandise 

imported into the United States and subsequently exported in the same condition as when imported. 

The value reported in the export statistics generally is 

equivalent to the f.a.s. (free alongside ship) value at the 

U.S. port of exportation, based on the transaction price, 

including inland freight, insurance and other charges incurred in placing the merchandise alongside the carrier 

at the U.S. port of exportation. 

U.S. Department of Defense shipments designated for 

use by the U.S. Armed Forces are excluded from the data. 

Also excluded are shipments to U.S. diplomatic missions 

abroad for their own use; shipments between the United 

States and its outlying possessions or between these 

possessions; exports from U.S. possessions to foreign 

countries; merchandise shipped intransit through the 

United States from one foreign country to another; bunker 

fuel and other supplies and equipment for vessels and 

planes engaged in foreign trade; gold in the form of ore, 

bullion, or coins; and some types of shipments of relatively small statistical significance; such as, household and 

personal effects of U.S. travelers, goods for the personal 

use of U.S. Government employees abroad, etc. 

General import statistics include merchandise released 

from customs custody immediately upon arrival and 

merchandise entered into bonded storage warehouses, 

bonded manufacturing warehouses, and bonded smelting 

and refining warehouses immediately upon arrival. The 

value shown for periods prior to 1974 is the value as 

appraised by the U.S. Customs Service in accordance with 

the legal requirements of Sections 402 and 402a of the 

Tariff Act of 1930, as amended. It may be based on the 

foreign market value, export value, constructed value, 

American selling price, etc. It generally represents a value 

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in the foreign country, and, therefore, excludes U.S. 

import duties, freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing the merchandise to the United States. 

This valuation is primarily used for collection of import 

duties and frequently does not reflect the actual transaction value. Effective January 1974, the value shown is 

the f.a.s. value which represents the transaction value at 

the foreign port of exportation. It is based on the purchase price; i.e., the actual transaction value and generally includes all charges incurred in placing the merchandise alongside the carrier at the port of exportation 

in the country of exportation. 

Excluded from U.S. import data are American goods 

returned by the U.S. Armed Forces; shipments between 

the United States and its outlying possessions or between 

these possessions; imports of U.S. possessions; intransit 

shipments through the United States from one foreign 

country to another; and shipments of relatively small statistical significance, such as personal and household 

effects of travelers. 

Data are compiled primarily from copies of Shippers' 

Export Declarations and import entry and warehouse withdrawal forms filed with the U.S. customs officials. Series 

602 and 612 are adjusted by the source agency for 

working-day and seasonal variation and for important 

strikes which affect export trade. The other series are 

seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

All of these series are shown in BCD in millions of dollars 

and appear under the category "merchandise trade." 

They are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

SERIES 602 measures the total value of exports, as defined above, excluding U.S. Department of Defense Military Assistance Program Grant-Aid shipments. Data are 

available beginning with 1948. Data are shown in the 

BCD tables in monthly form and in the BCD charts in 

monthly form and as a 6-month (MCD) moving average. 

SERIES 604 measures the total value of exports of agricultural products—crops, livestock, and livestock products. Data are available beginning with 1965. 

SERIES 606 measures the total value of exports of nonelectrical machinery. This includes steam engines and 

turbines; internal combustion engines; construction, mining, and material-handling equipment; office and store 

machines; service industry machinery; and miscellaneous 

nonelectrical equipment (farm machinery and equipment 

and machine shops are excluded). Data are available 

beginning with 1965. 

SERIES 612 measures the total value of imports as defined above. Data are available beginning with 1948. This 

series is shown in the BCD tables in monthly form and 

in the BCD charts in monthly form and as a 4-month 

(MCD) moving average. 

SERIES 614 measures the total value of imports of 

petroleum and petroleum products by the United States. 

Data are available beginning with 1965. 

SERIES 616 measures the total value of automobiles and 

parts imported into the United States. Data are available 

beginning with 1965. 

INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS 

Series 668. Exports of Goods and Services, Excluding 

Transfers Under Military Grants 

Series 669. Imports of Goods and Services, Total 

Series 667. Balance on Goods and Services 

Series 618. Merchandise Exports, Adjusted, Excluding 

Military Grants 

Series 620. Merchandise Imports, Adjusted, Excluding 

Military 

Series 622. Balance on Merchandise Trade 

Series 651. Income on U.S. Investments Abroad 

Series 652. Income on Foreign Investments in the 

United States 

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 

The following series are derived from the international 

accounts of the United States prepared by Bureau of 

Economic Analysis. Included in the export data are merchandise exports, military sales of goods and services, 

income on U.S. investments abroad, and exports of 

"other services." Imports include merchandise imports, 

military expenditures for goods and services, income on 

foreign investments in the United States, and imports of 

"other services." 

The merchandise import and export data are based on 

official U.S. foreign trade statistics (compiled by the 

Bureau of the Census) with adjustments for valuation, 

coverage, and timing. The major adjustments are: (1) The 

deduction of imports and exports of the U.S. Department 

of Defense; (2) the addition of imports and exports of 

nonmonetary gold; and (3) the addition of trade (exports 

and imports) between the Virgin Islands and foreign 

countries. 

Military sales of goods and services (exports) represent 

transfers by U.S. military agency sales contracts to foreign countries. Military expenditures for goods and services (imports) represent expenditures by U.S. military and 

civilian personnel and their dependents in foreign countries and expenditures by the Armed Forces for their own 

use abroad and for transfer to our allies. 

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The investment income portion of imports includes 

dividends, interest, and branch profits paid on foreign 

direct investments in the United States, as well as interest 

and dividends on U.S. private and Government securities, 

bank deposits, and other assets held by foreigners in the 

United States. U.S. withholding taxes and the foreign 

share in reinvested earnings of U.S. corporations are not 

included. The investment income portion of exports includes dividends, interest and, branch profits received by 

U.S. corporations from their foreign affiliates; dividends 

and interest on foreign securities held by U.S. residents; 

interest on bank and commercial loans; and income received by the U.S. Government on its assets abroad. Foreign taxes and the U.S. share in undistributed earnings of 

foreign corporations are excluded. 

"Other services" imports consist mainly of payments 

for transportation, travel, royalties and fees, miscellaneous private services, and miscellaneous Government 

expenditures. Exports consist of receipts from transportation, foreign visitors to the United States, royalties and 

fees, miscellaneous private services, and services rendered by the U.S. Government, whether paid in cash or 

provided under Goverment assistance programs. 

The export and import series in the national income 

and product accounts (series 250, 252 and 253) are 

derived from these series by adjusting the series in the 

international accounts for conceptual differences. The 

major adjustment is the exclusion of U.S. Government 

interest payments from imports of goods and services in 

the national income and product accounts. 

In BCD, these series appear under "goods and services 

movements." They are not classified as cyclical indicators. 

SERIES 668 measures the total value of exports, as defined above. 

SERIES 669 measures the total value of imports, as defined above. 

SERIES 667 measures the value of net exports from the 

United States. Net exports is equal to the difference between exports and imports, or, series 668 minus series 

669. 

SERIES 618 measures the nonmilitary merchandise portion of U.S. exports of goods and services, as defined 

above. 

SERIES 620 represents the nonmilitary merchandise portion of U.S. imports of goods and services, as described 

above. 

SERIES 622 measures the value of net nonmilitary merchandise exports from the United States. It is computed 

by substracting merchandise imports (series 620) from 

merchandise exports (series 618). 

SERIES 651 represents the investment income portion of 

U.S. exports, as described above. 

SERIES 652 represents the investment income portion of 

U.S. imports, as described above. 

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—INTERNATIONAL 

Series 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and 

Development, European Countries, Index of 

Industrial Production 

Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) 

Series 722. United Kingdom, Index of Industrial Production 

Source: Central Statistical Office (London) 

Series 723. Canada, Index of Industrial Production 

Source: Statistics Canada (Ottawa) 

Series 725. West Germany, Index of Industrial Production 

Source: Federal Statistical Office (Wiesbaden) 

Series 726. France, Index of Industrial Production 

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes 

Economiques (Paris) 

Series 727. Italy, Index of Industrial Production 

Source: Instituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) 

Series 728. Japan, Index of Industrial Production 

Source: Ministry of International Trade and Industry 

(Tokyo) 

Indexes of industrial production are designed to measure changes in the value added in industrial activity expressed in constant prices (the quantum of production). 

With very few exceptions, the indexes are calculated according to the Laspeyres formula, which is a weighted 

arithmetic average. A fixed base period is generally used 

with the Laspeyres formula, although moving base periods 

are employed in some countries. 

The weights used in computing the index generally are 

proportioned to the value added at factor cost in different 

industries determined from industrial census results; i.e., 

"census value added." These values are obtained by 

deducting the cost of the consumption of raw materials, 

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fuels, containers, and subcontracted work and other industrial services from the value of gross output. 

As a basis for comparison, all industrial production 

indexes are shown in BCD with a 1967=100 base, although a different base is often used by the source country, and the original base-weight year is retained. The 

conversion to the 1967=100 base is done by the Bureau 

of Economic Analysis. Seasonal adjustments, when not 

made by the source agency, are made by the Organization 

for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) using 

the X-l l version of the Census Method II. 

In BCD, the following indexes are classified under the 

international comparison category "industrial production." 

They are not classified as cyclical indicators for the United 

States. 

SERIES 721 index (Europe) is computed by combining 

indexes of production established by national statistical 

agencies to form a standard set of measures of total output 

for the majority of OECD member countries. The countries 

included in the index are Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, 

Finland, France, West Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, 

The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, 

Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. 

The index for each country is converted to a base of 

1970=100. Weights for each nation are determined by 

that country's share in OECD total gross domestic product 

of industrial origin. 

SERIES 722 index (United Kingdom) covers the following 

industries: Mining; manufacturing (excluding slaughtering, 

fish curing and packaging by wholesalers, milk bottling 

without processing, custom tailoring and dressmaking, 

automobile repair, musical instrument and jewelry repair, 

and other repair work); and electricity, gas and water. 

The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic 

average with a 1970=100 base and 1970 as the base. 

The indexes are linked on the average of the three years 

1968 to 1970 to indexes 1963=100; earlier data are 

derived from indexes 1958=100, 1954=100, and 1948= 

100. In calculating the index, series for industry groups 

are combined into indexes for major groups and hence 

into indexes for the broader classes and for total industrial 

activity. The monthly indexes are adjusted for differences 

in the number of working days in each month and for 

seasonal variation. 

The basic series used in computing the index are 

virtually all series of either quantity of output or quantities 

delivered. The industries covered by the index account 

for 100 percent of value added of the above group. 

The weights used at each stage of the calculation are 

proportioned to the contributions to gross domestic product at factor cost in 1970. The weights have been estimated from value added by industry groups determined 

from the 1970 Census of Production and adjusted as far 

as possible to exclude the cost of services purchased from 

other industries. Data are available beginning with 1948. 

THIS index, series 723 (Canada), covers the following 

industries: Mining, manufacturing; and electricity, gas, 

and water. The industries surveyed accounted for about 

30 percent of gross domestic product at factor cost in 

1971. 

The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic 

average (1971 = 100), with 1971 as the base. The indexes 

are linked at 1971 to indexes 1961=100 and at 1961 to 

indexes 1949=100. Earlier indexes are based on 1935= 

100 and 1926=100. The weights are derived from the 

gross domestic product at factor cost in 1971. The industry indexes are combined into industry group indexes, and 

these, in turn, into indexes for the broader classes of 

industrial activity. The indexes are adjusted for differences 

in the number of working days in each month and for 

seasonal variation. 

The data used in calculating monthly indexes are 

quantity of gross output of individual products, employeehours worked, quantity of individual raw materials consumed, and value of gross production of individual 

commodities adjusted for price changes. The data are 

compiled mainly from the results of official inquiries. 

Annual indexes are calculated separately, based on more 

complete information. The monthly indexes are adjusted 

to the level of the annual index. Data are available 

beginning with 1946. 

THIS index, series 725 (West Germany), covers the following industries: Mining; manufacturing, construction, and 

electricity and gas. The sample accounted for 77 percent 

of industrial value added in 1970. 

The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic 

average (1970=100), with 1970 as the base. The index 

is linked at 1970 to indexes 1962=100, at 1962 to 

indexes 1958=100. Earlier indexes are based on 1950= 

100. Indicators of output are combined into industry 

group indexes, which are adjusted for differences in the 

length of the working period each month. These adjusted 

indexes are then combined into division indexes, and 

finally into the index for total industrial activity. The 

indexes are seasonally adjusted by the OECD. 

The data used in calculating the indexes include quantity of output, deflated value of output, deflated value of 

sales, raw materials consumed, and employee-hours 

worked adjusted for productivity. 

The weights used to combine products, industry, and 

broader group indexes are based on value added at 

market prices in 1970. Data are available beginning with 

1950. 

THIS index, series 726 (France), includes the following 

industries: Mining, manufacturing, excluding food and 

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beverages, clothing, wood and wood products, nonelectrical machinery, aircraft, and certain other miscellaneous 

manufactures; and electricity and gas. 

The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic 

average (1970=100), with 1970 as the base. The index is 

linked at 1962 to indexes 1959=100. Though it should be 

noted that considerable differences in exist between the 

two indexes. Earlier indexes are based on 1938=100. 

Elementary relatives of indicators of output are combined into indexes for detailed categories of individual 

activity, and, through successive stages of combination, 

into indexes for the divisions and for total industrial 

activity. 

The monthly indexes are adjusted for differences in the 

number of working days in each month and for seasonal 

variation. Monthly preliminary data are revised as soon 

as more complete data become available. 

A total of 265 individual commodities (covering approximately 63 percent of all industrial production) are used 

in calculating the indexes. Indexes for the most recent 

month are provisional and are based on about 80 percent 

of the total series. 

The weights used for combining the elementary series 

of relatives into indexes for individual product groups, 

and these indexes into subbranches and branches of 

industrial activity, are based mainly on data on value 

added in 1970. The weights used in combining the indexes 

for industry branches into division indexes and into the 

index for total industrial activity are proportional to the 

value added at factor cost in 1970. Data are available 

beginning with 1951. 

THE series 727 index (Italy) covers the following industries: 

Mining; manufacturing, except photographic equipment, 

magnetic tapes and disks; and electricity and gas. The 

industrial divisions represented in the index accounted 

for 93 percent of industrial value added in 1970. 

The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic 

average (1970=100), with 1970 as the base weight year. 

The index is linked at 1970 to indexes 1966=100, and at 

1966 to indexes 1953=100. Considerable differences in 

coverage exist, however, between the three indexes. Earlier 

indexes are based on 1968=100. 

Series of relatives of indicators of output are combined 

into indexes of detailed categories of industrial activity 

which, in turn, are combined into indexes for subgroups 

and groups of industrial activity. The group indexes are 

then combined into indexes for broader classes of industrial activity and into the general index. The monthly 

index of total industrial production is adjusted for inequalities in the number of working days in each month and for 

seasonal variation. 

The indexes are calculated using quantities of output, 

quantities of materials used, employee-hours adjusted for 

productivity, and deflated values of output. The weights 

used in combining the indicators into indexes for each 

subgroup are based on gross value of production, after 

eliminating duplications of values which occur in the combining of products. The weights for combining subgroup 

indexes into indexes for major groups are derived from 

value added at factor cost in 1970. Data are available 

beginning with 1947. 

THIS index, series 728 (Japan), covers the following industries: Mining; manufacturing, excluding printing and publishing; and electricity and gas. 

The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic 

average (1970=100), with 1970 as the base; the index 

is linked at January 1968 to indexes 1965=100 and at 

January 1963 to indexes 1960=100. Earlier indexes are 

available on other bases. 

Elementary series of relatives based on quantities of 

individual commodities produced are combined into indexes for major groups, the major group indexes into 

division indexes, and these into an index for mining, manufacturing, and electricity and gas. The indexes are seasonally adjusted. 

The series used in the computation of the indexes 

include data on 459 individual commodities. Data on the 

production of 417 of these are compiled by the Ministry 

of International Trade and Industry; the other data are 

gathered chiefly from trade associations and other government agencies. 

The weights used in combining indicators into indexes 

for each industry group are based on quantities produced 

in the base years multiplied by unit selling price f.o.b. 

factory. Indexes of industry groups are combined into 

division indexes using weights based on value added at 

factor cost. Data are available beginning with 1948. 

CONSUMER PRICES—INTERNATIONAL 

Series 732. United Kingdom, Index of Consumer Prices 

Series 732c. United Kingdom, Percent Change in Consumer Prices 

Source: H. M. Stationery Office (London) 

Series 733. Canada, Index of Consumer Prices 

Series 733c. Canada, Percent Change in Consumer 

Prices 

Source: Statistics Canada (Ottawa) 

Series 735. West Germany, Index of Consumer Prices 

Series 735c. West Germany, Percent Change in Consumer Prices 

Source: Federal Statistical Office (Wiesbaden) 

Series 736. France, Index of Consumer Prices 

Series 736c. France, Percent Change in Consumer Prices 

Source; Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes 

Economiques, Ministere de I'Economie et des 

Finances (Paris) 

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Series 737. Italy, Index of Consumer Prices 

Series 737c. Italy, Percent Change in Consumer Prices 

Source; Instituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) 

Series 738. Japan, Index of Consumer Prices 

Series 738c. Japan, Percent Changes in Consumer Prices 

Source; Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister 

(Tokyo) 

Consumer price indexes measure the change, over a 

given period of time, in the cost of selected goods and 

services considered to be representative of the consumption patterns or habits of the population of the particular 

country concerned. Although the official titles, base years, 

and methods of computation vary among countries, those 

indexes shown in BCD have been converted to a 1967= 

100 base by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to facilitate 

comparison. 

Consumer price data are shown in both index form 

and as 6-month changes at annual rate (732c, etc.) in the 

BCD tables. Only the percent changes are plotted in the 

charts, and these are shown beginning in 1967. The indexes are shown without adjustment for seasonal variation; 

however, the percent changes are computed from seasonally adjusted indexes. These series appear under the 

international comparison category "consumer prices'' and 

are not classified as cyclical indicators for the United 

States. 

THIS series 732 (United Kingdom), known as Genera/ 

Index of Retail Prices (January 1974=100), is a chain 

index with links, the weights being changed at the beginning of each calendar year. The index for each month is 

first computed as a weighted average of separate indexes 

for item groups, with prices in the previous January taken 

as 100. The resulting index is then linked back through 

January in each preceding year to January 1974. 

The weights are revised each January on the basis of 

the results of a continuing Family Expenditure Survey 

(covering 3,500 households a year for 1957-67 and 

7,000 from 1967) for the 12 months ending the previous 

June, revalued at the prices ruling at the date of revision. 

The index covers the great majority of households in the 

United Kingdom, including practically all wage earners 

and most salary earners. Excluded are households of pensioners living on low incomes and the three or four persons of those with the highest weekly reported income of 

the head of the household. 

The items included in the computation of the index are: 

Food; meals taken outside the home; alcoholic drinks; tobacco; housing (by rent; owner-occupied mortgage interest payments, insurance of dwelling, etc.; repairs and 

maintenance; rates and water charges); fuel and light; 

clothing; durable household goods; transport and vehicles; 

miscellaneous goods; and services. The frequency, method, 

source, and scope of price collection vary with the particular item. 

Data for the index are published by H. M. Stationery 

Office in the Central Statistical Office Monthly Digest of 

Statistics and Department of Employment Gazette. 

THIS series 733 (Canada), known as Consumer Price 

Index (1971 = 100), is computed as a weighted arithmetic 

average with fixed base. From January 1961 to April 1973, 

the weights correspond to 1957 family expenditure patterns and, beginning with May 1973, to family expenditure 

patterns of 1967 which are derived from a family expenditure survey conducted during 1967 in 11 major urban 

centers. Weights assigned to the food group subitems 

are derived from the 1969 food expenditure survey. The 

index represents families ranging in size from two to six 

persons, with annual incomes in 1967 ranging from 

$4,000 to $12,000, and living in cities with over 30,000 

population. The items included in the index are: Food; 

housing (by rent; home ownership, including repairs 

and maintenance; fuel and light; and other household 

operation); clothing; transport; health and personal care; 

recreation education, and reading; and tobacco and alcohol. Prices for the majority of items are collected monthly 

by agents in 34 cities. Rent quotations are obtained 

through monthly household surveys covering some 8,000 

rented dwellings in urban areas. No account is taken of 

seasonal fluctuations in items prices (i.e., a constant 

weighting method has been adopted for the computation 

of the 1967 weighted index). 

The index is published by Statistics Canada in Prices 

and Price Indexes and Consumer Price Movements. 

THIS series 735 (West Germany), known as Cost of Living 

Index (all private households) (1967=100), is computed 

as a weighted arithmetic average with fixed base, the 

weights corresponding to the base period. The weights 

and selected items are derived from a family expenditure 

survey conducted in 1969 among private households of all 

types of consumers resulting in an average household 

with 2.7 members and a monthly expenditure, in 1970 

(base year of the index), of about 1,300 marks. 

The items included in the index are: Food and tobacco; 

clothing; rent; fuel and light; household operation; transport and communications; health and personal care; education and entertainment; and other goods and services. 

Prices are collected near the middle of each month in 

119 municipalities. Rent quotations are obtained quarterly 

for flats with two or three rooms and kitchen. In the computation of the index, seasonal fluctuations in item prices 

are taken into account in their full amount; however, between May and October, prices for potatoes and fresh 

fruits and vegetables are collected twice, instead of once, 

per month. 

The index is published by Statistisches Bundesamt 

(Federal Statistical Office) in Wirtschaft und Statistik. 

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THIS series 736 (France), known as Consumer Price Index 

(1970=100), is a chain index, the weights being changed 

at the beginning of each calendar year. The index of each 

month is first computed on a base of December of the 

preceding year=100; the resulting index is then calculated on a base of 1970=100 (Laspeyres' chain index). 

The weights are revised at the beginning of each calendar year, using the results of continuing family expenditure surveys and data on household accounts obtained 

from the system of national accounts; the weights used 

in the computation of the indexes of a given year are 

based on the results of surveys taken two years before 

and updated to December of the preceding year. The index covers urban households of all sizes. 

The items included in the index are: Food; clothing and 

household linen; furniture, furnishings, household goods, 

cleaning materials, tobacco, etc.; fuel and light; services 

(broken down into rent, water, maintenance, and repairs, 

personal and medical care, and public transport and 

maintenance of vehicles); and other services. Prices are 

collected from 25,000 retail outlets and service establishments by agents in 108 urban centers of more than 2,000 

inhabitants monthly or quarterly for most goods and services, and twice a month for fresh products. Rent quotations are obtained from a survey conducted twice a year 

from a sample of 1,500 dwellings in urban centers of 

more than 2,000 inhabitants. Prices of pharmaceutical 

products and costs of medical care are taken into account 

at their gross value (i.e., excluding refunds from social 

security). Seasonal fluctuations in the prices of fresh products are also taken into account. 

The index is published by I.N.S.E.E. in Bulletin Mensuel 

de Statistique. 

THIS series 737 (Italy), known as Consumer Price Index 

(1970=100), is computed as a weighted arithmetic average with fixed base, the weights corresponding to the base 

period. The national index represents the weighted arithmetic average of indexes relating to four major areas of 

the country (North-West, North-East, Central, and Southern and Insular). 

The weights are derived from the 1969 consumption 

patterns and natural account data; rent weights are derived from the results of a housing inquiry taken in July 

1969. Excluded from the weighting scheme and pricing 

are producers' own consumption and owner-occupied 

housing. 

The items included in the index are: Food and tobacco; 

rent; fuel and light; clothing; furnishing and household 

equipment; personal and medical care; transport and communications; education and recreation; and miscellaneous. 

Prices are collected in the chief town of the 92 provinces 

by agents from approximately 19,500 outlets and from 

5,500 service establishments. Prices for food items are 

obtained three times a month, those for clothing and personal services once a month, and those for public services 

and rent (13,500 flats) once a quarter: Seasonal fluctuations in the prices of fresh fruits and vegetables are accounted for by varying the monthly basket of the subgroup 

relating to these items and by using, for the compilation 

of the respective index, moving averages of the indexes 

for the last 13 months. 

The index is published by the Institute Centrale di Statistica in Bolletin Mensile di Statistica. 

THIS series 738 (Japan), known as Consumer Price Index. 

(1970=100), is computed as a weighted arithmetic average with fixed base, the weights corresponding to the base 

period. The weights and selected items are derived from 

a family expenditure survey conducted in 1970 among a 

random sample of about 8,000 urban and rural households (excluding farmers', fishermen's, and single persons' households) in 170 localities selected so as to represent the whole country. 

The items included in the index are: Food; housing 

(broken down into rent, repairs and improvements, water, 

and furniture and utensils); fuel and light; clothing; and 

miscellaneous. Prices for most items are collected monthly 

from about 25,000 retail stores and service establishments in 170 localities during the week containing the 

12th of each month. Prices for seasonal items such as 

fresh fruits, vegetables, and fish are collected three times 

a month. Seasonal fluctuations in the prices of these items 

are accounted for by varying monthly item weights (based 

on the results of 1969 and 1970 surveys) within constant 

group weights. Rent quotations are obtained from about 

16,000 households. 

The index is published by the Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister, in Consumer Price Index. 

STOCK PRICES—INTERNATIONAL 

Series 742. United Kingdom, Index of Stock Prices 

Source: The Financial Times and the Institute of Actuaries (London) 

Series 743. Canada, Index of Stock Prices 

Source: Statistics Canada (Ottawa) 

Series 745. West Germany, Index of Stock Prices 

Source: Federal Statistical Office (Wiesbaden) 

Series 746. France, Index of Stock Prices 

Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes 

Economiques 

Series 747. Italy, Index of Stock Prices 

Source: Banca d'Italia (Rome) 

Series 748. Japan, Index of Stock Prices 

Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange 

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Stock price indexes are designed to approximate as 

closely as possible the average movement of all stocks 

on the individual country's exchange. Each stock included 

in the index must represent a viable enterprise and must 

be representative of the industry group to which it is 

assigned. Although the base years and methods of computation vary among countries, all of the following stock 

price indexes have been converted to a 1967=100 base 

by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to facilitate comparison in BCD. 

In BCD, these indexes appear under the international 

comparisons category "stock prices" and are not classified as cyclical indicators for the United States. They 

have not been adjusted for seasonal variation. 

THIS index—Industrial Share Prices—series 742 (United 

Kingdom), shows monthly averages of daily changes in 

the market value of a portfolio of 500 ordinary shares 

actively traded on the London Exchange and issued by 

industrial companies operating in the United Kingdom. 

The sample is reviewed regularly and comprises all companies whose market capitalization in 1962 exceeded 4 

million pounds (plus a few smaller companies), except 

those operating mainly outside the United Kingdom. In 

1962 coverage was about 60 percent of all quoted industrial shares. The monthly index has an April 1962 reference base and is obtained as the arithmetic average of 

daily indexes. Daily quotations relate to the middle market 

price at the close of business. The daily index consists of 

a number of chain-linked Laspeyres series. Price relatives 

of constituent shares are weighted by initial market capitalization until the first change occurs. Weights are 

change, and a new link occurs, when capital changes 

such as rights and bonus issues occur, or when changes 

in the sample are effected. The index is compiled by The 

Financial Times and the Institute of Actuaries and is published in the Central Statistical Office's Monthly Digest of 

Statistics. 

THIS index—Share Prices: Industrials—series 743 (Canada), is compiled on a 1971 reference base and relates to 

the common dividend-bearing shares of 65 Canadian companies whose shares are traded on at least one exchange. 

It is a component of the Investors Index. The monthly 

index is obtained as the arithmetic average of weekly 

indexes. Prices are based on daily closing quotations from 

the exchange with the highest volume of trading for each 

share and are averaged over the number of trading days 

in the week. Prices for component shares are combined 

into subgroups in proportion to the relative numbers of 

shares outstanding as of 1 January each year. Subgroup 

and group weights are based on the average yearly volume of shares traded over the period 1971-74. Adjustments are made as a result of changes in portfolio composition and stock splits. The index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is published in Prices and Price Indexes. 

THIS index—Industrial Share Prices—series 745 (West 

Germany), is a component of the General Index and 

relates to the common shares of companies with headquarters in West Germany. It comprises 192 companies 

which together represent approximately 90 percent of 

total authorized capital. Selection is based on authorized 

capital with some adjustments to include small companies, 

if these have an impact. Price relatives of selected shares 

are combined by relative values of authorized capital as 

of December 29, 1972 (the reference and weighting base) 

to obtain the group indexes. Price relatives for each group 

in the base period are weighted by the authorized capital 

of all companies in that group. Prices are adjusted for 

share dividends and rights but not cash dividends. The 

index is compiled by the Federal Statistical Office and 

published in Aussenhandel, Reihe 2. 

THIS index—Industrial Share Prices—series 746 (France), 

measures monthly changes in the spot price of a portfolio 

of all variable-yield industrial shares admitted to the Paris 

Exchange in the chosen base period. It is a component 

of the Total Index. The sample of approximately 180 

shares is updated each year, with selection based on the 

market value of share capital and the volume of transactions. The monthly index is based on opening spot 

quotations for the last Friday (or preceding working day) 

of the month. Group indexes are obtained as unweighted 

averages of price relatives for component shares on a 

base of the last working Friday of the preceding year. 

Group indexes are weighted by the market value of all 

shares in the group as of the same date and then are 

chained to the reference base December 29, 1972. Prices 

are adjusted for share dividends and rights. The index is 

compiled by I.N.S.E.E. and is published in the Bulletin 

Mensuel de Statistique. 

THIS index—Share Prices—series 747 (Italy), measures 

the monthly averages of daily changes in the market value 

of a portfolio comprising the ordinary variable-yield shares 

of approximately 40 major Italian companies. It covers 

mainly manufacturing companies but includes 14 financial, insurance and construction companies. Coverage is 

approximately 60 percent of the total value of shares 

admitted to the Milan Exchange. The monthly indexes are 

averages of daily indexes. Daily spot closing quotations 

on the Milan Exchange are weighted by base year (1958) 

capitalization. Adjustments are made for increases in 

share capital and for accrued dividends (on the assumption that dividends are unchanged from the preceding 

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year). The index is compiled by Banca d'ltalia and is 

published in its Bolletino. 

THIS index—Share Prices—series 748 (Japan), measures monthly changes in the selling prices of all 690 

shares listed on the Tokyo Exchange. It is compiled on an 

April 1, 1968, reference base. The monthly index is the 

simple average of daily indexes. Selling quotations at the 

listed. Adjustments are made to the base figure when 

shares are added to or deleted from the list and for new 

issues. No adjustments are made, however, for stock 

dividends. The index is compiled by the Tokyo Stock 

Exchange and is published in the Exchange's Monthly 

Statistics. 

close of the afternoon session (or the previous day's 

quotations) are weighted by the current number of shares 

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III. COMPOSITE INDEXES: 

A Brief Explanation and the Method of Construction 

Section A. Composite Indexes In Short Establishing a Trend for the Composite Indexes 

Composite Indexes As Summary Indicators 

The composite indexes are summary measures designed 

to indicate changes in the direction of aggregate economic 

activity. Each index measures the average behavior of a 

group of economic time series that show similar timing 

at business cycle turns but differ widely in terms of the 

represented activities or sectors of the economy. Two 

main criteria are used to select and group the components 

of the indexes—cyclical timing and overall performance 

score. Each cyclical indicator is evaluated according to the 

scoring plan discussed in the article "Cyclical Indicators: 

An Evaluation and New Leading Indexes", published in 

the May 1975 issue of BCD and reprinted as an appendix 

to this volume. The better performing series that tend to 

lead at business cycle turns are combined into one index, 

those that tend to coincide with the business cycle into 

another, and those that tend to lag into a third. To insure 

broad economic coverage without excessive duplication, 

care is taken to include in each composite index the highest scoring indicators from as many different economic 

process groups as have the requisite timing pattern. Because of this diversified and comprehensive coverage, 

composite indexes are more reliable as cyclical indicators 

and less subject to measurement error and erratic behavior than any of their components taken singly. 

Because prompt availability and reasonable accuracy 

are important requirements of composite indexes, only 

series that are available monthly with short publication 

lags and are not subject to large revisions are selected 

for inclusion in the composites. 

The procedures used to combine the components into 

an index are designed to prevent the more volatile series 

from dominating the index and to give more influence to 

the better performing series. Thus, the series are standardized to equalize their average absolute changes, and 

their overall performance scores are used as weights. 

In addition to the composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, there is a selection of composite indexes based on leading indicators grouped by 

economic process. These subgroup indexes add depth to 

the leading index and facilitate the analysis of individual 

economic processes. The subgroups include marginal 

employment adjustments, capital investment commitments, inventory investment and purchasing, profitability, and money and financial flows. 

Although the primary purpose of the composite indexes 

is to indicate changes in the direction of aggregate economic activity, many users have also come to view them 

as indicators of the current and future levels of economic 

activity, and the coincident index has come to be considered as a monthly approximation of aggregate economic activity. However, due to the method of its construction under the old procedures, the coincident index 

had an underlying trend which differed considerably from 

those of its component series. To correct this, a new 

approach to computing the trend has been adopted. A 

target trend is established by averaging the trends in the 

original data for the four components of the coincident 

composite index. This trend, which is similar to that of 

GNP in constant dollars and can be viewed as the longrun trend in aggregate economic activity, is superimposed 

on the leading, coincident, and lagging composite indexes. 

Equalizing the Amplitudes of the Composite Indexes 

Another innovation that has been adopted makes the 

average month-to-month percent change (without regard 

to sign) of the leading and lagging indexes approximately 

equal to that of the coincident index. This ties the leading 

and lagging indexes more closely to the coincident index 

and makes the indexes more useful for analytical purposes. (In the previous procedures, the average month-tomonth percent change in all three indexes was made equal 

to 1—a somewhat arbitrary standard which exaggerated 

the size of the month-to-month movements of the indexes.) 

A step-by-step description of the method used to compute the leading, roughly coincident, and lagging composite indexes is shown below. For those readers who 

prefer a description in mathematical terms, an algebraic 

explanation on composite index construction is provided 

in section C—Technical Note. It should be noted that the 

composite indexes for the leading indicator subgroups 

have not been adjusted for trend or amplitude. These 

indexes reflect short-term fluctuations in economic activities which have their own characteristic secular trends 

and amplitudes; the procedure used preserves these 

differences. 

Maintaining and Revising Composite Indexes 

The composite indexes are updated at the end of each 

month. The updating consists of computing the prelimBCD 1977 73 

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inary estimate for the current month and recomputing the 

preceding 11 monthly values so as to incorporate revisions 

and additional data not available the previous month. 

The composite indexes are also periodically overhauled, 

usually at 12-month intervals. At that time they are recomputed back to 1948 to take into account revisions in the 

component series and changes in the standardization 

factors. 

Section B. Method of Constructing 

Composite Indexes 

/. Computing Standardized and Weighted Average 

Changes 

A. Month-to-month percent changes are calculated for 

each component series. To insure symmetrical treatment 

of positive and negative changes, the percent changes are 

computed using the formula, 200(B-A)/(B+A), where A 

is the value for the first month and B is the value for the 

second month.1 For those series (such as first differences) 

which can contain zero or negative values, and for series 

which are already in percentage or ratio form, simple 

month-to-month differences rather than percent changes 

are computed.2 

B. To prevent the more volatile component series 

from dominating the index, the percent changes (or differences) for each component are standardized to make the 

average of their absolute values equal to one. This is 

accomplished by dividing each monthly change by the 

average, without regard to sign, of these changes as computed in step l-A. Presently, this average is computed for 

the period 1948 through 1975.3 

C. The standardized changes described above are 

then weighted. The weights used reflect the overall performance scores of the series as cyclical indicators. The 

score for a given series depends upon its economic significance, statistical adequacy, cyclical timing, conformity 

to business cycles, smoothness, and currency. Thus, 

better performing series carry more weight in the composite index. 

1

The conventional formula for calculating the percent change over a 

given time interval is 100 (B-A)/A, where A is the value for the first period 

(e.g., month) and B the value for the last period in the interval. In the 

modified formula, the sum of A and B is used as the denominator in order 

to keep positive and negative percent changes symmetrical. Consider, for 

example, a series in which the consecutive values are 4,8,4,8,4,8 and 4. 

Although there is no upward trend in such a series, the conventional percent change formula will yield an average change of +25 percent (since 3 

increases of 100 percent, and 3 decreases of 50 percent would be averaged). 

The modified formula, however, will yield an average change of zero since 

an equal number of increases and decreases of 66% percent would be 

averaged. (Adapted from Signals of Recession and Recovery, by Julius 

Shiskin, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1961.) 

2

 This category includes the following leading index components: Change 

in inventories on hand and on order, change in sensitive prices, change in 

total liquid assets, layoff rate, and vendor performance; and the following 

lagging index components: Average prime rate, and ratio of consumer 

installment debt to personal income. 3

 For the composite indexes presented in the May and November 1975 

issues of BCD, a trailing 60-term moving average of the changes (without 

regard to sign) was used as the standardization factor. This moving average approach, which may be desirable when the magnitude of monthly 

changes varies systematically over time, complicates the computation 

process by calling for continual modification of the standardization factor. 

It also has the disadvantage of distorting cyclical comparisons over time, 

and for these reasons it was dropped. 

D. For each month, a weighted average of the standardized changes for all available components is computed. 

The standardization factors and weights for the component 

series of the composite indexes are shown in table 4. 

Similar measures for series included in the leading indicator subgroups are shown in table 5. The factors and 

weights are periodically updated and/or revised. 

//. Modification of the Average Changes and Cumulation 

of the Raw Index 

A. Before cumulation into an index, the average 

monthly changes for the leading and lagging indexes are 

modified (standardized) so that their longrun average 

(without regard to sign) is equal to that of the coincident 

index. To make the leading composite index conform to 

this standard, the monthly changes (as derived in step 

ID) are divided by the ratio of their long-term average to 

that of the coincident index. A similar procedure is used 

to modify the average movements in the lagging index. 

Index standardization factors for the leading, coincident, 

and lagging indexes are shown in table 6. 

B. The modified average changes from step ll-A are 

cumulated into an index according to the following proTable 4. Standardization Factors and Weights for 

Composite Index Components 

Series 

Standardization 

factor 

(A,) 

Weight i 

(Wi) 

(1) (2) 

Leading index components 

1. Average workweek of production workers, 

manufacturing 0.476 0.984 

3. * Layoff rate, manufacturing

 2 170 1.025 

32. *Vendor performance . 3.899 .930 

104. *Percent change in total liquid assets, 

smoothed

 3 050 1.011 

92. *Percent change in sensitive prices, smoothed3 .319 .971 

20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 

1972 dollars 5.519 .971 

12. Index of net business formation 1.053 .984 

19. Index of stock prices 2.664 1.079 

105. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars 331 1.065 

8. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 

1972 dollars 3.128 .998 

29. Building permits, private housing 4.816 1.025 

36. ^Change in inventories on hand and on order, 

1972 dollars, smoothed

 3 2.496 .957 

Coincident index components 

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 331 1.067 

47. Index of industrial production, total 960 1.042 

51. Personal income, less transfer payments, 1972 

dollars 518 .945 

57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars . . . 1.065 .945 

Lagging index components 

91. Average duration of unemployment2 3.825 1.068 

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .616 .907 

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 

dollars .462 .994 

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . . .990 1.031 

109. ^Average prime rate charged by banks 100 1.081 

95. *Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal 

income 061 .919 

* First differences are computed for these series rather than symmetrical 

percent changes. 1

 The weight is the ratio of the performance score of the given series 

(as of November 1976) to the average of the scores of all series in the 

composite index. (Some scores in table 1 have been revised since these 

weights were established.) 2

 The changes for these series are inverted; i.e., multiplied by —1 . 3

 Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed 

at the terminal month of the span. 

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Table 5. Standardization Factors and Weights for 

Leading Indicator Subgroups 

Table 7. Target Trend Computation 

Subgroup indexes and component series 

Standardization 

factor 

(Ai) 

Weight * 

(Wi) 

(1) (2) 

913. Marginal employment adjustments 

1. Average workweek of production workers, 

manufacturing 0.476 1.021 

2. Accession rate, manufacturing 3.957 .909 

3. -Layoff rate, manufacturings 170 1.063 

5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance - 5.532 1.007 

914. Capital investment commitments 

12. Index of net business formation 1.053 .991 

20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 

1972 dollars 5.519 .977 

29. Building permits, private housing 4.816 1.032 

915. Inventory investment and purchasing 

8. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 

1972 dollars 3.128 1.035 

32. *Vendor performance 3.898 .965 

36. *Change in inventories on hand and on order, 

1972 dollars, smoothed

 3 2.496 .993 

92. ''Percent change in sensitive prices, smoothed3 .319 1.007 

916. Profitability 

17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, 

manufacturing 680 1.005 

19. Index of stock prices 2.664 1.148 

80. Corporate profits after taxes, with IVA and 

CCAdj, 1972 dollars 2.419 .847 

917. Money and financial flows 

104. *Percent change in total liquid assets, 

smoothed

 3 050 1.023 

105. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars 331 1.077 

110. Total private borrowing 3.372 .900 

* First differences are computed for these series rather than symmetrical 

percent changes. 1

 The weight is the ratio of the performance score of the given series 

(as of November 1976) to the average of the scores of all series in the 

composite index. (Some scores in table 1 have been revised since these 

weights were established.) 2

 The changes for these series are inverted; i.e., multiplied by —1 . 

"Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed 

at the terminal month of the span. 

Table 6. Index Standardization Factors, 1948-1975 

Composite 

index 

Average absolute change 

in the group

 l Index standardization 

factor

 2 

(1) (2) 

Leading . . 

Coincident 

Lagging . . 

0.482 

.845 

.676 

0.570 

1.000 

.800 

1

 The average absolute change for each group is obtained as follows: (a) 

For each month a weighted average of the standardized changes of all 

components in the index is computed; e.g., in the leading group, standardized changes (with sign) in 12 series are averaged for each month 

beginning with February 1948; (b) A long-term average without regard to 

sign (1948-1975) is then calculated from these monthly averages. 2

 These measures are the ratios of the average absolute changes for each 

group (leading, coincident, and lagging) to the same measure for the coincident series as shown in column 1. 

cedures: An arbitrary value of 100 is selected for the first 

month (called here month A) of the index and the following months (B, C, D, E, ) are obtained by applying the 

formula B = A(200 + r)/(200 — r), where r is the modified average change between months A and B. Similarly, 

the index for month C is computed from the relationship 

C = 8(200 + r)/(200 — r), where r is the change between months 8 and C. The formula (200 + r)/(200 — r) 

converts the symmetrical percent changes into conventional percent changes. The resulting index is referred 

to hereafter as the "raw" index. It is this index which is 

then trend adjusted. 

Series 

Monthly trend 

factor

 1 

(percent) 

Specific cycles defined 

from trough to trough— 

Initial Terminal 

(1) (2) (3) 

Coincident index components 

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 0.178 

47. Index of industrial production, total .357 

51. Personal income, less 

transfer payments, 1972 

dollars .301 

57. Manufacturing and trade 

sales, 1972 dollars .290 

Target trend

 { .282 

Oct. 49 to 

Aug. 54 

Oct. 49 to 

Apr. 54 

July 49 to 

Apr. 54 

July 49 to 

Dec. 53 

Nov. 70 to 

June 75 

Nov. 70 to 

Mar. 75 

Nov. 70 to 

Feb. 75 ~ 

Nov. 70 to 

Mar. 75 

1

 The total percent change from the initial specific cycle average to the 

terminal cycle average (the specific cycles for individual series are defined 

in columns 2 and 3) is broken into monthly rates by the compound interest 

formula T = (m\/ CL/CI—1) 100, where Ci and CL are the initial and terminal 

specific cycle averages, respectively, and m is the number of months from 

the center of the initial cycle to the center of the terminal cycle. 

- Because there was no specific cycle trough in this series corresponding 

to the November 1970 reference turn, the reference date was used for 

purposes of the trend computation. 1

 The target trend is the simple average of the monthly trends in the 

four components. 

///. Computation Procedure for the Trend Adjusted 

Indexes 

The revised method of composite index construction 

outlined here employs a new approach to trend adjustment. The trends in all three composite indexes (leading, 

lagging, and coincident) are made equal to the average of 

the longrun trends in the four components of the coincident index; this trend can be viewed as a linear approximation to the secular movement in aggregate economic 

activity. 

A. Establishing the target trend: 

1. Using the original unstandardized data, loglinear trends are determined for each of the four components of the coincident index, employing the business cycle average method as follows: The average 

monthly values during the initial cycle and during the 

terminal cycle (measured from specific cycle trough-totrough dates) are determined. The percent change from 

the centered initial cycle average to the centered terminal cycle average is broken into a monthly rate by the 

compound interest formula. 

2. The trend factors determined above for the individual components are averaged to obtain the "target 

trend." Table 7 presents the monthly target trend and 

also illustrates how that measure was computed. 

B. Trend adjustment of the coincident, leading, and 

lagging composite indexes: 

1. Trends are computed for the "raw" indexes of 

the coincident, leading, and lagging composites using 

the method described in step III—3(1). Table 8 presents 

these measures along with the trend adjustment factors 

referred to in the next subsection. 

BCD 1977 75 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 8. Trend Adjustment Factors 

Trend in Trend adjustment 

Composite index raw index

 l factor -

(percent) (percent) 

(1) (2) 

Leading 0.112 -f-0.170 

Coincident .440 -.158 

Lagging .435 —.153 

1

 See text for a discussion of raw indexes and the method of computing 

trends in them. 3

 Trend adjustment factor is the target trend (0.282) minus the trend in 

the raw index. 

2. The differences between the "target trend" and 

the respective trend values of the "raw" coincident, 

leading, and lagging composite indexes (trend adjustment factors) are then added to the modified (standardized) average monthly changes obtained in step ll-A. 

This procedure is similar to the so-called "reverse 

trend adjustment" procedure used earlier. In the new 

procedure, however, all three composite indexes—not 

just the leading index—are trend adjusted. 

3. The trend-adjusted changes then are cumulated 

using the method described in step ll-B to obtain the 

roughly coincident, leading, and lagging composite indexes. Trends of the three indexes are thus equal.4 

C. Changing the index base: 

and N is the number of months in the standardization 

period. The standardization period runs from 1948 

through 1975, so N=336. The A, are fixed, having been 

computed from the data as they existed in November 

1976.5 

C. Next, weighted monthly averages of the s„ are 

computed with the formula 

^=(Es,Wt)/(i:W;), 

/ = i /= i 

where w, is the weight assigned to component /. If s„ is 

not available for a given month t because of an unavailable data value, then the corresponding w,=0 for the 

above formula. 

//. Modification of the Average Changes and 

Cumulation of the Raw Index 

A. Before cumulating and rebasing to obtain the raw 

index, Rt are standardized: r,=Rt/F, where 

F=[(S |*'| )/(N-l)]/[(£ | Ft I )/(N-l)]f 

and p, is the coincident index counterpart of Rt defined 

in step l-C.6 (NOTE: F= l for the coincident index.) As 

with the component standardization factors, these 

index standardization factors are fixed. 

Finally, the index is converted to the desired base 

(1967 is currently used as the base year) by dividing 

each term by the average value of the index in the base 

year and multiplying by 100. 

B. The r, are cumulated now by applying the formula 

/,=/,=/(200+r,)/(200-r,), where f=2,3,4,...n and /, is assigned the value of 100. This index, called the raw index, 

is then trend adjusted.7 

Section C. Technical Note—An Algebraic 

Explanation on Composite Index Construction 

/. Computation of Standardized and Weighted 

Average Changes 

A. Let c„ be the symmetrical percent change from 

month t—1 to month t for component /. Then c„=200 

(d„—dit-^/id,,+c/„_!), where dit is the data for month 

f of component / (/=l,2,3,...k and f=2,3,4,...n). If the 

given time series contains zero or negative values or is 

already in percentage or ratio form, c/7=d/f—cfl7_,f 

where / and t are defined as above. 

B. The changes computed in step l-A are standardized using the formula Sit=cit/Aif where 

A=Zk,,l/(N-l) 

r = 2 

4

 Because of the particular sequence employed in the adjustment procedures outlined above, the trends of the three indexes are equal, but the 

average monthly changes (without regard to sign) are no longer precisely 

equal. If a procedure had been employed whereby the amplitude modification described in step ll-B had been employed after, rather than prior to, 

the trend adjustment, the average monthly changes in the three indexes 

would have been equal but the trends would have been only approximately 

equal. Since the trend adjustment can affect the cyclical timing of the 

indexes while the amplitude modification does not, it was deemed advisable 

to insure precise equalization of the trends and only approximate equalization of the amplitudes of the month-to-month changes. 

///. Computation of the Trend Adjusted Index 

A. The method of business cycle averages is used to 

determine trends. Let c, and cL represent the average 

of data values for the initial and terminal specific cycles 

of a time series. (Cycles are measured from trough to 

trough.) Trend is determined by the compound interest 

formula 

T=(^Ct/C,-l) 100, 

where m is the number of months from the center of 

the initial cycle to the center of the terminal cycle. 

B. The trend adjustment factor is computed by subtracting the trend of the raw index from the target trend. 

To trend adjust an index, this difference is then added 

to the r, obtained in step ll-A. Thus, rt=rt+(G-T), 

where G is the target trend and T is the trend in the raw 

index. These adjusted r/ are then cumulated as described in step ll-B and rebased by dividing by the 

average of the values in 1967 and multiplying by 100. 

5

 Table 4 lists the weights and standardization factors for the components 

of the leading, coincident, and lagging indexes. Table 5 lists the weights 

and standardization factors for the leading indicator subgroups. 6

 For the leading indicator subgroups F is defined as 1. 7

 The leading indicator subgroups are not trend adjusted. 

76 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
IV. HISTORICAL DATA 

This part provides historical data for all series shown in the monthly BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST. Monthly series are presented first, in numerical 

order, followed by quarterly series, also in numerical order. (There are a few 

exceptions where strict numerical order would be impractical.) The Series 

Finding Guide at the back of this Handbook lists the pages on which the series 

description and historical data for each series can be found. 

Historical data are shown for the period 1945 through 1975. Data for 1976 

have been omitted since, in many cases, they are subject to revision. Space 

has been left for 1976 on the tables for the reader who wishes to add the current data. The current data necessary to update these tables can be found in 

recent issues of BCD. The historical data included here reflect revisions available 

through February 1977. (A few series contain revisions available through April 

1977.) Data revised after February will be published in the appendixes of the 

monthly BCD. 

The series shown here are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated 

by®,that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Official source agency 

annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often derived from data 

with more digits or from data which are not seasonally adjusted; therefore, they 

may differ slightly from annual figures computed from the monthly or quarterly 

data shown. 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

194b... 

19«6... 

1947. . . 

1*46... 

1949... 

19 50... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1*56... 

1957... 

19DO . . . 

1959... 

i960.. . 

19bl... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966. . . 

1967... 

1966... 

1969. . . 

197U... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974. . . 

1975... 

1976. . . 

1945.. . 

1946... 

1*47.. . 

1948. . . 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957.. . 

1956... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

197U... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948. . . 

1949.. . 

1950... 

ly51... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly ' 

Jan. 

45.3 

40.8 

40.5 

40.4 

39.4 

39.6 

40.8 

40.7 

41.0 

39.5 

40.3 

40.8 

40.3 

38.8 

40.1 

40.5 

39.2 

40.0 

40.4 

40.1 

41.2 

41.5 

41.0 

40.2 

40.7 

40.4 

39.9 

40.2 

40.4 

40.4 

39.1 

7.7 

9.6 

7.0 

5.6 

3.9 

4.4 

6.4 

5.4 

5.7 

3.5 

4.1 

4.2 

4.1 

3.1 

4.2 

4.4 

3.7 

4.3 

3.8 

3.8 

4.1 

4.9 

4.5 

4.4 

4.9 

4.4 

3.8 

4.3 

5.0 

4.6 

3.1 

0.7 

2.1 

1.0 

1.4 

3.0 

1.8 

1.1 

1.5 

0.9 

2.9 

1.5 

1.6 

1.5 

3.3 

1.8 

1.5 

2.7 

1.9 

2.0 

1.7 

1.4 

1.2 

1.4 

1.4 

1.1 

1.5 

1.7 

1.2 

0.8 

1.3 

2.9 

Feb. 

i 

45.4 

40.4 

40.4 

40.2 

39.4 

39.7 

40.8 

40.7 

40.9 

39.6 

40.5 

40.6 

40.4 

38.6 

40.2 

40.1 

39.3 

40.3 

40.3 

40.6 

41.3 

41.6 

40.4 

41.0 

40.4 

40.2 

39.7 

40.5 

41.0 

40.4 

38.9 

6.8 

9.3 

6.9 

6.5 

4.0 

4.4 

6.2 

5.2 

5.8 

3.3 

4.3 

4.2 

3.9 

3.0 

4.4 

4.0 

3.7 

4.3 

3.9 

3.9 

4.2 

5.0 

4.4 

4.4 

4.8 

4.4 

3.7 

4.3 

5.1 

4.5 

3.2 

0.9 

2.2 

1.0 

2.0 

2.7 

2.1 

1.0 

1.5 

1.0 

2.7 

1.4 

2.2 

1.7 

3.2 

1.7 

1.9 

3.0 

2.0 

1.8 

1.9 

1.4 

1.1 

1.5 

1.3 

1.1 

1.7 

1.5 

1.2 

0.7 

1.2 

2.9 

Mar. 

. AVERAG 

45.2 

40.5 

40.4 

40.4 

39.1 

39.7 

41.0 

40.6 

41.1 

39.5 

40.7 

40.4 

40.2 

38.7 

40.4 

39.9 

39.4 

40.5 

40.3 

40.6 

41.4 

41.5 

40.4 

40.7 

40.8 

40.1 

39.8 

40.4 

40.9 

40.4 

38.9 

6.4 

9.6 

6.9 

5.2 

3.9 

4.8 

6.0 

5.0 

5.7 

3.5 

4.6 

4.1 

3.8 

3.1 

4.6 

3.7 

4.3 

4.2 

3.9 

3.9 

4.3 

5.3 

4.3 

4.6 

4.9 

4.0 

3.7 

4.4 

5.0 

4.5 

3.2 

0.9 

2.1 

1.1 

1.4 

3.1 

1.6 

1.0 

1.4 

1.0 

2.8 

1.5 

1.8 

1.5 

3.5 

1.7 

2.4 

2.5 

1.8 

1.9 

1.8 

1.4 

1.1 

1.6 

1.2 

1.1 

1.8 

1.5 

1.1 

0.8 

1.1 

2.6 

Apr. May June July 

C WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION 'WORKERS, 

45.1 

40.4 

40.6 

40.5 

38.7 

40.1 

41.2 

40.1 

41.1 

39.4 

40.6 

40.6 

40.1 

38.6 

40.5 

39.7 

39.6 

40.7 

40.2 

40.8 

41.0 

41.5 

40.5 

40.1 

40.7 

39.9 

39.7 

40.7 

41.0 

39.3 

39.0 

(HOURS) 

44.3 44.5 

39.9 39.8 

40.5 40.4 

40.2 40.3 

38.9 38.9 

40.2 40.5 

40.9 40.7 

40.4 40.5 

40.8 40.7 

39.5 39.6 

40.9 40.6 

40.2 40.1 

39.8 39.9 

38.7 39.0 

40.6 40.5 

40.0 39.8 

39.6 39.9 

40.5 40.4 

40.5 40.6 

40.7 40.7 

41.2 41.1 

41.5 41.4 

40.5 40.4 

40.9 40.9 

40.7 40.7 

39.8 39.9 

40.0 40.0 

40.5 40.6 

40.8 40.7 

40.3 40.2 

39.1 39.3 

44.3 

39.8 

40.2 

40.1 

39.1 

40.8 

40.6 

40.2 

40.6 

39.6 

40.6 

40.2 

39.8 

39.2 

40.2 

39.8 

40.0 

40.4 

40.5 

40.7 

41.1 

41.2 

40.5 

40.8 

40.6 

40.0 

39.9 

40.6 

40.7 

40.2 

39.4 

Aug. Sept. 

MANUFACTURING 

40.8 

40.5 

39.9 

40.0 

39.1 

41.1 

40.2 

40.5 

40.4 

39.7 

40.6 

40.1 

39.8 

39.4 

40.3 

39.7 

40.0 

40.3 

40.4 

40.9 

41.0 

41.4 

40.6 

40.7 

40.6 

39.8 

39.8 

40.6 

40.5 

40.1 

39.7 

2. ACCESSION RATE, MANUFACTURING 

6.3 

8.9 

6.9 

5.5 

4.0 

4.8 

5.8 

4.8 

5.6 

3.2 

4.7 

4.3 

3.6 

3.2 

4.4 

3.7 

4.2 

4.1 

3.9 

4.0 

4.1 

5.1 

4.3 

4.6 

4.9 

4.0 

3.8 

4.3 

4.8 

4.6 

3.7 

(PER 100 EMPLOYEES) 

6.5 6.8 

8.1 7.7 

6.4 6.1 

5.3 6.2 

4.4 4.7 

5.3 5.2 

5.5 5.1 

4.9 5.0 

5.2 5.0 

3.3 3.7 

4.5 4.3 

4.1 4.1 

3.6 3.8 

3.6 3.8 

4.3 4.1 

3.7 3.8 

4.2 4.1 

4.2 4.1 

3.8 3.9 

4.0 3.9 

4.1 4.2 

5.0 4.9 

4.4 4.5 

4.6 4.5 

4.7 5.0 

4.1 4.1 

3.8 3.8 

4.4 4.2 

4.7 4.6 

4.6 4.3 

3.6 3.7 

6.8 

8.5 

5.7 

5.6 

4.3 

5.6 

5.0 

5.2 

4.8 

3.7 

4.2 

3.9 

3.8 

3.9 

4.0 

3.6 

4.1 

4.2 

3.9 

4.1 

4.2 

4.9 

4.4 

4.5 

4.7 

4.1 

3.8 

4.3 

4.6 

4.3 

4.0 

3. LAYOFF RATE, MANUFACTURING 

1.0 

1.8 

1.1 

1.4 

3.2 

1.4 

1.1 

1.6 

1.1 

2.7 

1.4 

1.6 

1.7 

3.3 

1.7 

2.3 

2.1 

1.8 

1.9 

1.6 

1.5 

1.2 

1.5 

1.2 

1.0 

1.9 

1.5 

1.2 

0.8 

1.0 

2.4 

(PER 100 EMPLOYEES) 

1.3 2.1 

1.6 1.4 

1.5 1.3 

1.2 1.3 

3.4 3.1 

1.2 1.1 

1.3 1.3 

1.3 1.5 

1.2 1.2 

2.4 2.3 

1.4 1.7 

2.2 1.8 

2.0 1.7 

3.1 2.4 

1.7 1.8 

2.3 2.5 

2.3 2.2 

2.0 2.0 

1.8 1.8 

1.7 1.6 

1.4 1.4 

1.1 1.3 

1.4 1.3 

1.2 1.2 

1.1 1.1 

1.9 1.9 

1.6 1.5 

1.1 1.4 

0.8 0.8 

1.1 1.2 

2.5 2.2 

1.8 

0.8 

1.3 

1.4 

2.9 

0.8 

1.8 

3.0 

1.4 

2.1 

1.8 

1.7 

1.8 

2.5 

1.8 

2.4 

2.3 

2.0 

1.7 

1.6 

1.4 

1.4 

1.4 

1.3 

1.1 

1.5 

1.5 

1.3 

1.1 

[ 1.2 

1.7 

6.6 

7.9 

5.9 

5.2 

4.4 

6.6 

4.7 

6.3 

4.6 

3.4 

4.5 

3.9 

3.3 

4.1 

4.1 

3.8 

4.1 

4.0 

3.8 

4.1 

4.3 

5.0 

4.3 

4.7 

4.5 

3.9 

4.0 

4.4 

4.7 

4.1 

3.9 

11.4 

0.9 

1.0 

1.7 

2.7 

0.8 

1.8 

1.3 

1.7 

2.2 

1.7 

1.5 

2.1 

2.3 

2.0 

2.6 

1.9 

2.2 

1.9 

1.5 

1.6 

1.2 

1.3 

1.4 

1.1 

1.9 

2.0 

1.1 

0.9 

1.3 

1.6 

41.7 

40.5 

40.2 

39.6 

39.4 

40.7 

40.4 

41.1 

39.8 

39.5 

40.7 

40.5 

39.7 

39.6 

40.1 

39.4 

39.6 

40.5 

40.6 

40.5 

40.8 

41.2 

40.7 

40.9 

40.7 

39.3 

39.4 

40.6 

40.7 

40.0 

39.8 

8.2 

7.5 

6.0 

5.1 

4.3 

6.0 

4.6 

5.7 

4.1 

3.6 

4.5 

4.3 

3.2 

3.9 

4.0 

3.8 

3.8 

4.0 

3.9 

3.9 

4.5 

5.0 

4.4 

4.6 

4.7 

3.9 

4.0 

4.4 

4.6 

3.9 

3.8 

4.2 

1.1 

1.0 

1.3 

2.4 

1.0 

1.7 

0.9 

1.9 

2.1 

1.4 

1.8 

2.3 

2.2 

2.1 

2.4 

2.2 

2.0 

1.9 

1.6 

1.4 

1.0 

1.3 

1.2 

1.2 

1.9 

1.7 

1.0 

0.9 

1.5 

1.8 

Oct. 

41.4 

40.3 

40.3 

39.7 

39.4 

41.0 

40.2 

41.1 

40.0 

39.6 

40.9 

40.5 

39.3 

39.5 

40.1 

39.6 

40.2 

40.2 

40.6 

40.6 

41.2 

41.3 

40.6 

40.9 

40.5 

39.5 

39.9 

40.7 

40.6 

40.0 

39.8 

9.0 

7.2 

5.9 

5.1 

4.1 

5.8 

4.8 

5.8 

3.7 

4.1 

4.5 

4.6 

3.3 

3.9 

3.8 

3.5 

4.2 

3.8 

3.9 

4.1 

4.4 

4.9 

4.4 

4.8 

4.6 

3.8 

3.9 

4.5 

4.8 

3.6 

3.7 

2.8 

1.2 

1.1 

1.5 

2.9 

1.0 

1.7 

0.8 

2.2 

1.9 

1.5 

1.6 

2.7 

2.0 

2.9 

2.6 

1.8 

2.1 

1.8 

1.7 

1.4 

1.1 

1.3 

1.2 

1.3 

2.2 

1.5 

1.0 

0.9 

2.0 

1.7 

Nov. 

41.1 

40.2 

40.4 

39.7 

39.0 

41.0 

40.4 

41.0 

39.8 

40.1 

41.0 

40.4 

39.2 

39.8 

39.9 

39.2 

40.5 

40.3 

40.4 

40.8 

41.2 

41.2 

40.6 

40.8 

40.4 

39.5 

40.0 

40.8 

40.7 

39.5 

39.9 

10.4 

7.0 

6.0 

4.8 

4.2 

5.1 

5.2 

5.5 

5.4 

4.3 

4.5 

4.2 

3.1 

3.9 

4.1 

3.6 

4.2 

3.8 

3.7 

3.9 

4.7 

4.7 

4.5 

4.9 

4.5 

3.7 

4.0 

4.5 

4.9 

3.1 

3.7 

2.2 

1.0 

1.1 

1.8 

2.8 

1.2 

1.7 

0.8 

2.5 

1.8 

1.3 

1.6 

2.9 

1.9 

2.4 

2.6 

1.9 

1.9 

1.8 

1.5 

1.4 

1.2 

1.2 

1.1 

1.3 

2.0 

1.4 

0.9 

0.9 

2.4 

1.5 

Dec. 

41.1 

40.5 

40.6 

39.5 

39.2 

40.8 

40.6 

41.1 

39.7 

40.Ol 

40.8 

40.5 

39.0 

39.8 

40.2 

38.4| 

40.3 

40.2 

40.6 

41.1 

41.4 

40.9 

40.7 

40.7 

40.5 

39.5 

40.2 

40.6 

40.6 

39.3 

40.3 

10.5 

6.6 

5.6 

4.5 

5.4 

5.3 

5.2 

5.8 

3.5 

4.2 

4.5 

4.2 

2.8 

4.0 

5.4 

3.6 

4.2 

3.8 

3.8 

4.0 

4.9 

4.7 

4.61 

4.9 

4.6 

3.81 

4.2 

4.9 

4.7 

3.1 

3.9 

1.6 

1.2 

1.0 

2.4 

2.1 

1.3 

1.5 

1.0 

2.6 

1.8 

1.5 

1.5 

2.8 

2.0 

1.9 

2.8 

1.9. 

1.9 

1.7 

1.6 

1.4 

1.3 

1.2 

1.1 

1.4 

1.7 

1.3 

0.9 

1.0 

2.4 

1.3 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

45.3 

40.6 

40.4 

40.3 

39.3 

39.7 

40.9 

40.7 

41.0 

39.5 

40.5 

40.6 

40.3 

38.7 

40.2 

40.2 

39.3 

40.3 

40.3 

40.4 

41.3 

41.5 

40.6 

40.6 

40.6 

40.2 

39.8 

40.4 

40.8 

40.4 

39.0 

7.0 

9.5 

6.9 

5.8 

3.9 

4.5 

6.2 

5.2 

5.7 

3.4 

4.3 

4.2 

3.9 

3.1 

4.4 

4.0 

3.9 

4.3 

3.9 

3.9 

4.2 

5.1 

4.4 

4.5 

4.9 

4.3 

3.7 

4.3 

5.0 

4.5 

3.2 

0.8 

2.1 

1.0 

1.6 

2.9 

1.8 

1.0 

1.5 

1.0 

2.8 

1.5 

1.9 

1.6 

3.3 

1.7 

1.9 

2.7 

1.9 

1.9 

1.8 

1.4 

1.1 

1.5 

1.3 

I

 1-1 

1.7 

1.6 

1.2 

0.8 

1.2 

2.8 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

44.6 42.3 

40.0 40.3 

40.5 40.1 

40.3 39.9 

38.8 39.2 

40.3 40.9 

40.9 40.4 

40.3 40.6 

40.9 40.3 

39.5 39.6 

40.7 40.6 

40.3 40.3 

39.9 39.8 

38.8 39.4 

40.5 40.2 

39.8 39.6 

39.7 39.9 

40.5 40.4 

40.4 40.5 

40.7 40.7 

41.1 41.0 

41.5 41.3 

40.5 40.6 

40.6 40.8 

40.7 40.6 

39.9 39.7 

39.9 39.7 

40.6 40.6 

40.8 40.6 

39.9 40.1 

39.1 39.6 

AVERAGE FOR 

6.5 7.2 

8.2 8.0 

6.5 5.9 

5.7 5.3 

4.4 4.3 

5.1 6.1 

5.5 4.8 

4.9 5.7 

5.3 4.5 

3.4 3.6 

4.5 4.4 

4.2 4.0 

3.7 3.4 

3.5 4.0 

4.3 4.0 

3.7 3.7 

4.2 4.0 

4.1 4.1 

3.9 3.9 

4.0 4.0 

4.1 4.3 

5.0 5.0 

4.4 4.4 

4.6 4.6 

4.9 4.6 

4.1 4.0 

3.8 3.9 

4.3 4.4 

4.7 4.6 

4.5 4.1 

3.7 3.9 

AVERAGE FOR 

1.5 5.8 

1.6 0.9 

1.3 1.1 

1.3 1.5 

3.2 2.7 

1.2 0.9 

1.2 1.8 

1.5 1.7 

1.2 1.7 

2.5 2.1 

1.5 1.6 

1.9 1.7 

1.8 2.1 

2.9 2.3 

1.7 2.0 

2.4 2.5 

2.2 2.1 

1.9 2.1 

1.8 1.8 

1.6 1.6 

1.4 1.5 

1.2 1.2 

1.4 1.3 

1.2 1.3 

1.1 1.1 

1.9 1.8 

1.5 1.7 

1.2 1.1 

0.8 1.0 

1.1 1.3 

2.4 1.7 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

41.2 

40.3 

40.4 

39.6 

39.2 

40.9 

40.4 

41.1 

39.8 

39.9 

40.9 

40.5 

39.2 

39.7 

40.1 

39.1 

40.3 

40.2 

40.5 

40.8 

41.3 

41.1 

40.6 

40.8 

40.5 

39.5 

40.0 

40.7 

40.6 

39.6 

40.0 

PERIOD 

10.0 

6.9 

5.8 

4.8 

4.6 

5.4 

5.1 

5.7 

4.2 

4.2 

4.5 

4.3 

3.1 

3.9 

4.4 

3.6 

4.2 

3.8 

3.8 

4.0 

4.7 

4.8 

4.5 

4.9 

4.6 

3.8 

4.0 

4.6 

4.8 

3.3 

3.8 

PERIOD 

2.2 

1.1 

1.1 

1.9 

2.6 

1.2 

1.6 

0.9 

2.4 

1.8 

1.4 

1.6 

2.8 

2.0 

2.4 

2.7 

1.9 

2.0 

1.8 

1.6 

1.4 

1.2 

1.2 

1.1 

1.3 

2.0 

1.4 

0.9 

0.9 

2.3 

1.5 

Annual 

43.5 

40.3 

40.4 

40.0 

39.1 

40.5 

40.6 

40.7 

40.5 

39.6 

40.7 

40.4 

39.8 

39.2 

40.3 

39.7 

39.8 

40.4 

40.5 

40.7 

41.2 

41.3 

40.6 

40.7 

40.6 

39.8 

39.9 

40.6 

40.7 

40.0 

39.4 

7.7 

8.1 

6.2 

5.4 

4.3 

5.3 

5.3 

5.4 

4.8 

3.6 

4.5 

4.2 

3.6 

3.6 

4.2 

3.8 

4.1 

4.1 

3.9 

4.0 

4.3 

5.0 

4.4 

4.6 

4.7 

4.0 

3.9 

4.4 

4.8 

4.2 

3.7 

2.6 

1

 1'4 

1.1 

1.6 

2.9 

1.3 

1.4 

1 1.4 

1.6 

2.3 

1.5 

1.7 

2.1 

2.6 

2.0 

2.4 

2.2 

2.0 

1.8 

1.7 

1.4 

1.2 

1.4 

1.2 

1.2 

1.8 

1.6 

1.1 

0.9 

1.5 

2.1 

78 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

6.2 

5.7 

4.7 

3.7 

2.5 

1.6 

3.2 

2.8 

3.1 

1.7 

1.6 

2.1 

1.9 

1.1 

1.4 

1.5 

1.1 

1.4 

1.3 

1.4 

1.7 

2.3 

2.5 

2.4 

2.7 

2.4 

1.8 

2.1 

2.7 

2.7 

1.4 

5. 

16 

134 

121 

166 

285 

294 

174 

221 

175 

303 

256 

218 

242 

354 

292 

281 

393 

301 

310 

284 

243 

222 

196 

206 

179 

240 

292 

264 

226 

294 

521 

Feb. 

6.0 

5.6 

4.6 

3.6 

2.2 

1.5 

3.3 

2.8 

3.2 

1.6 

1.6 

2.0 

1.9 

1.1 

1.3 

1.6 

1.1 

1.5 

1.3 

1.4 

1.7 

2.3 

2.5 

2.4 

2.7 

2.5 

1.7 

2.1 

2.9 

2.7 

1.3 

AVERAGE 

26 

225 

174 

206 

305 

288 

181 

201 

177 

318 

240 

226 

225 

407 

284 

271 

429 

295 

301 

270 

248 

219 

231 

196 

186 

256 

286 

262 

223 

315 

533 

Mar. 

6.3 

5.4 

4.5 

3.7 

2.1 

1.6 

3.4 

2.8 

3.5 

1.4 

1.8 

2.0 

1.8 

1.0 

1.5 

1.5 

1.1 

1.4 

1.4 

1.4 

1.7 

2.6 

2.4 

2.4 

2.8 

2.3 

1.7 

2.1 

2.8 

2.7 

1.2 

WEEKLY 

28 

192 

185 

201 

333 

276 

166 

209 

186 

320 

228 

221 

219 

436 

258 

303 

379 

287 

288 

277 

237 

182 

256 

194 

185 

262 

294 

258 

227 

302 

526 

6. VALUE OF MANUFACTOR 

5!66 

7.46 

7.14 

7.56 

15.46 

11.06 

14.45 

9.99 

13.48 

15.72 

15.16 

12.01 

15.72 

15.54 

14.05 

17.29 

18.12 

20.43 

21.95 

25.40 

24.68 

27.30 

29.11 

27.48 

29.30 

32.20 

40.25 

45.16 

40.16 

5.98 

7.50 

7.08 

7.62 

14.08 

11.06 

14.21 

10.31 

13.92 

14.61 

15.64 

12.23 

16.67 

15.68 

14.55 

17.57 

18.84 

19.84 

22.21 

25.49 

24.73 

27.16 

30.09 

27.83 

29.81 

33.13 

41.08 

45.16 

40.16 

5.90 

7.82 

6.67 

7.86 

14.64 

12.81 

13.34 

9.72 

14.96 

15.04 

15.14 

12.68 

16.89 

15.39 

14.62 

17.13 

19.08 

19.77 

22.81 

26.78 

24.53 

28.77 

30.06 

27.72 

29.85 

33.40 

43.17 

45.43 

38.59 

Apr. 

4. 

6.0 

5.3 

4.5 

1 3.6 

2.1 

1.6 

3.4 

2.7 

3.3 

1.4 

1.8 

1.9 

1.7 

0.9 

1.5 

1.5 

1.1 

1.4 

1.4 

1.4 

1.8 

2.6 

2.4 

2.4 

2.8 

2.3 

1.7 

2.2 

2.8 

2.7 

1.2 

May June July 

QUIT RATE, MANUFACTURING 

(PER 100 EMPLOYEES) 

5.9 

5.1 

4.3 

3.5 

2.0 

1.9 

3.3 

2.6 

3.3 

1.3 

1.9 

1.9 

1.7 

0.9 

1.6 

1.4 

1.1 

1.5 

1.4 

1.5 

1.8 

2.6 

2.3 

2.4 

2.7 

2.1 

1.8 

2.2 

2.7 

2.6 

1.3 

6.1 

5.0 

3.9 

3.7 

1.8 

2.1 

3.0 

2.7 

3.2 

1.3 

1.8 

2.0 

1.6 

1.0 

1.5 

1.4 

1.2 

1.5 

1.4 

1.4 

1.8 

2.6 

2.4 

2.4 

2.7 

2.2 

1.8 

2.2 

2.7 

2.5 

1.3 

6.2 

5.5 

3.7 

1 3.5 

1.7 

2.2 

3.0 

2.6 

3.0 

1.3 

1.9 

1.9 

1.6 

1.0 

1.5 

1.4 

1.2 

1.4 

1.4 

1.5 

1.8 

2.6 

2.2 

2.5 

2.7 

2.1 

1.8 

2.2 

2.8 

2.4 

1.4 

Aug. 

5.8 

5.1 

3.9 

3.3 

1.7 

2.7 

2.8 

2.7 

2.7 

1.3 

2.0 

1.9 

1.6 

1.1 

1.5 

1.3 

1.2 

1.5 

1.5 

1.5 

1.9 

2.5 

2.2 

2.6 

2.7 

2.0 

1.8 

2.2 

2.7 

2.3 

1.4 

INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE 

34 

205 

207 

210 

379 

263 

199 

219 

179 

313 

228 

223 

239 

438 

244 

294 

381 

283 

293 

265 

237 

179 

259 

193 

181 

326 

283 

260 

238 

290 

510 

ERS' NEW 

(THOUSANDS) 

43 

220 

235 

239 

377 

250 

199 

213 

198 

313 

222 

236 

244 

400 

246 

316 

358 

301 

288 

262 

224 

192 

236 

195 

182 

302 

290 

262 

234 

294 

503 

ORDERS, 

70 

206 

219 

219 

359 

252 

209 

242 

195 

314 

222 

227 

246 

410 

258 

322 

334 

304 

284 

257 

224 

194 

231 

194 

197 

291 

289 

286 

233 

314 

502 

72 

171 

229 

194 

340 

223 

236 

315 

207 

294 

223 

245 

267 

350 

264 

335 

348 

303 

281 

260 

231 

199 

231 

189 

195 

273 

285 

272 

232 

294 

419 

360 

163 

193 

202 

385 

170 

254 

207 

229 

319 

233 

224 

235 

363 

291 

363 

316 

305 

290 

244 

248 

195 

212 

199 

196 

287 

327 

246 

247 

350 

467 

DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES, 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

5.89 

8.00 

6.16 

8.35 

13.84 

12.94 

13.69 

10.17 

14.24 

15.69 

14.11 

11.90 

17.06 

15.14 

15.38 

16.81 

18.72 

20.60 

23.34 

26.51 

24.99 

27.69 

31.61 

26.74 

28.96 

33.78 

42.40 

45.67 

40.72 

6.21 

8.06 

6.02 

9.23 

13.25 

10.86 

13.58 

9.75 

14.51 

15.16 

14.58 

12.33 

16.20 

15.32 

15.57 

16.96 

19.12 

20.64 

22.57 

26.09 

26.09 

27.52 

29.93 

28.14 

29.00 

34.48 

43.37 

49.26 

41.16 

5.92 

8.85 

5.75 

9.39 

12.88 

13.00 

13.20 

10.29 

14.84 

15.06 

14.23 

13.38 

16.97 

15.61 

15.92 

16.77 

18.16 

20.65 

22.74 

26.83 

26.85 

27.56 

29.26 

28.26 

29.10 

35.25 

43.02 

48.40 

40.37 

5.95 

8.85 

5.93 

11.52 

12.61 

12.04 

12.35 

10.50 

14.98 

14.75 

13.43 

12.99 

15.55 

15.13 

15.59 

17.00 

18.82 

21.61 

23.44 

26.39 

25.71 

26.92 

29.46 

27.89 

29.92 

34.20 

42.53 

48.90 

43.53 

6.19 

8.92 

6.85 

14.21 

11.41 

11.76 

10.89 

10.45 

15.04 

17.73 

14.03 

13.47 

14.85 

15.77 

16.49 

17.09 

18.78 

20.38 

23.36 

26.11 

26.41 

27.61 

29.63 

27.10 

29.69 

34.77 

42.32 

50.93 

43.37 

Sept. 

6.0 

4.9 

4.0 

3.2 

1.7 

2.8 

2.5 

2.8 

2.4 

1.4 

2.1 

1.9 

1.6 

1.1 

1.5 

1.3 

1.3 

1.4 

1.4 

1.5 

2.0 

2.6 

2.3 

2.6 

2.7 

2.0 

1.8 

2.2 

2.6 

2.1 

1.3 

Oct. 

6.2 

5.0 

3.8 

3.0 

1.6 

2.9 

1 2.7 

3.0 

2.3 

1.3 

2.0 

1.9 

1.4 

1.2 

1.5 

1.2 

1.3 

1.4 

1.4 

1.6 

2.0 

2.6 

2.3 

2.5 

2.7 

1.9 

1.8 

2.3 

2.8 

2.0 

1.4 

STATE PROGRAMS 

375 

191 

179 

218 

320 

182 

242 

168 

238 

322 

204 

236 

305 

338 

271 

351 

329 

300 

285 

245 

218 

197 

217 

194 

200 

319 

307 

246 

241 

374 

467 

IN CURR 

6^83 

8.38 

6.92 

11.79 

10.75 

12.66 

9.71 

11.69 

15.74 

14.78 

13.64 

13.38 

15.66 

15.84 

16.18 

17.80 

18.82 ! 

21.14 

23.60 

27.15 

25.52 

28.55 

30.68 

27.80 

30.11 

37.09 

42.65 

48.38 

44.18 

248 

181 

163 

203 

386 

194 

234 

175 

251 

315 

224 

214 

302 

314 

311 

373 

304 

304 

282 

249 

209 

203 

220 

188 

202 

329 

295 

250 

244 

419 

445 

Nov. 

6.2 

4.9 

3.6 

3.0 

1.6 

2.9 

2.6 

3.0 

2.2 

1.5 

2.1 

1.8 

1.3 

1.2 

1.5 

1.1 

1.4 

1.4 

1.4 

1.5 

2.1 

2.6 

2.4 

2.6 

2.7 

1.8 

1.9 

2.4 

2.8 

1.8 

1.6 

220 

178 

172 

211 

344 

200 

210 

169 

298 

276 

215 

223 

320 

311 

351 

385 

305 

299 

276 

262 

212 

208 

209 

190 

211 

322 

283 

241 

251 

473 

398 

ENT DOLLARS 

6^9 

8.34 

6.77 

12.00 

11.98 

11.85 

9.99 

12.64 

15.74 

14.84 

12.96 

14.13 

15.61 

14.59 

16.31 

17.91 

18.96 

20.51 

23.80 

26.04 

25.67 

30.14 

30.22 

25.53 

30.23 

36.30 

44.11 

45.08 

43.84 

7.36 

7.95 

7.12 

10.95 

11.55 

11.95 

9.94 

11.14 

15.74 

15.78 

13.58 

15.33 

14.64 

14.74 

16.93 

17.70 

18.80 

20.76 

24.32 

25.47 

26.01 

29.00 

29.72 

25.86 

31.34 

37.67 

45.76 

44.81 

44.28 

Dec. 

6.1 

4.7 

3.7 

2.8 

1.5 

3.0 

2.5 

3.1 

2.0 

1.5 

2.0 

1.9 

1.3 

1.3 

1.6 

1.1 

1.4 

1.3 

1.3 

1.6 

2.2 

2.7 

2.4 

2.6 

2.6 

1.9 

1.9 

2.6 

2.7 

1.6 

1.6 

185 

211 

172 

234 

298 

197 

213 

190 

280 

253 

214 

230 

355 

320 

275 

381 

296 

310 

301 

251 

206 

219 

204 

190 

210 

299 

265 

236 

284 

494 

348 

7 .72 

7.72 

7.00 

11.88 

11.18 

12.89 

9.96 

12.60 

16.42 

15.73 

12.54 

14.83 

16.24 

14.97 

17.57 

18.77 

18.47 

22.11 

25.04 

25.56 

28.50 

29.47 

29.79 

29.10 

32.02 

39.67 

43.84 

41.50 

45.98 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

6.2 

5.6 

4.6 

3.7 

2.3 

1.6 

3.3 

2.8 

3.3 

1.6 

1.7 

2.0 

1.9 

1.1 

1.4 

1.5 

1.1 

1.4 

1.3 

1.4 

1.7 

2.4 

2.5 

2.4 

2.7 

2.4 

1.7 

2.1 

2.8 

2.7 

1.3 

23 

184 

160 

191 

308 

286 

1 174 

210 

1 180 

314 

241 

222 

229 

1 399 

278 

285 

400 

294 

300 

277 

243 

208 

228 

199 

183 

253 

291 

261 

225 

304 

527 

17'.54 

22.78 

2U.89 

23.04 

44.18 

34.93 

42.00 

30.02 

42.36 

45.37 

45.94 

36.92 

49.28 

46.61 

43.22 

51.99 

56.04 

60.04 

66.97 

77.67 

73.94 

83.23 

89.26 

83.03 

88.96 

98.73 

124.50 

135.75 

118.91 

II Q III Q IV Q 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

6.0 6.0 

5.1 5.2 

4.2 3.9 

3.6 3.3 

2.0 1.7 

1.9 2.6 

3.2 2.8 

2.7 2.7 

3.3 2.7 

1.3 1.3 

1.8 2.0 

1.9 1.9 

1.7 1.6 

0.9 1.1 

1.5 1.5 

1.4 1.3 

1.1 1.2 

1.5 1.4 

1.4 1.4 

1.4 1.5 

1.8 1.9 

2.6 2.6 

2.4 2.2 

2.4 2.6 

2.7 2.7 

2.2 2.0 

1.8 1.8 

2.2 2.2 

2.7 2.7 

2.6 2.3 

1.3 1.4 

6.2 

4.9 

3.7 

2.9 

1.6 

2.9 

2.6 

3.0 

2.2 

1.4 

2.0 

1.9 

1.3 

1.2 

1.5 

1.1 

1.4 

1.4 

1.4 

1.6 

2.1 

2.6 

2.4 

2.6 

2.7 

1.9 

1.9 

2.4 

2.8 

1.8 

1.5 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

49 269 

210 175 

220 200 

223 205 

372 348 

255 192 

202 244 

225 230 

191 225 

313 312 

224 220 

229 235 

243 269 

416 350 

249 275 

311 350 

358 331 

296 303 

288 265 

261 250 

228 232 

188 197 

242 220 

194 194 

187 197 

306 293 

287 306 

269 255 

235 240 

299 339 

505 451 

218 

190 

169 

216 

343 

197 

219 

178 

276 

281 

218 

222 

326 

315 

312 

380 

302 

304 

286 

254 

209 

210 

211 

189 

208 

317 

281 

242 

260 

462 

397 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

18.02 18.97 

24.91 26.15 

17.93 19.70 

26.97 37.52 

39.97 34.77 

36.80 36.46 

40.47 32.95 

30.21 32.64 

43.59 45.76 

45.91 47.26 

42.92 41.10 

37.61 39.84 

50.23 46.06 

46.07 46.74 

46.87 48.26 

50.54 51.89 

56.00 56.42 

61.89 63.13 

68.65 70.40 

79.43 79.65 

77.93 77.64 

82.77 83.08 

90.80 89.77 

83.16 82.79 

87.06 89.72 

103.51 106.06 

128.79 127.50 

143.33 148.21 

122.25 131.08 

22.07 

24.01 

20.89 

34.83 

34.71 

36.69 

29.89 

36.38 

47.90 

46.35 

39.08 

44.29 

46.49 

44.30 

50.81 

54.38 

56.23 

63.38 

73.16 

77.07 

80.18 

88.61 

89.73 

80.49 

93.59 

113.64 

133.71 

131.39 

134.10 1 

Annual 

6.1 

i

 5'2 

4.1 

3.4 

1.9 

2.3 

2.9 

2.8 

2.8 

1.4 

1.9 

1.9 

1.6 

1.1 

1.5 

1.3 

1.2 

1.4 

1.4 

1.5 

1.9 

2.6 

2.3 

2.5 

2.7 

2.1 

1.8 

2.2 

2.7 

2.3 

1.4 

140 

190 

187 

209 

343 

1 232 

210 

211 

218 

305 

i 226 

227 

267 

370 

279 

331 

348 

299 

290 

260 

228 

201 

225 

194 

194 

292 

291 

257 

240 

351 

470 

76.60 

97.85 

79.41 

122.36 

153.63 

144.88 

145.31 

129.25 

179.61 

184.89 

169.04 

158.66 

192.06 

183.72 

189.16 

208.80 

224.69 

248.44 

279.18 

313.82 

309.69 

337.69 

359.56 

329.47 

359.33 

421.94 

514.50 

558.68 

506.34 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

15*45.. . 

1*46.. . 

1*47.. . 1 

194a.. . 

1*49.. . 

195U.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

I960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966. . . 

1967.. . 

1968 . . . 

1969.. . 

197U.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

19 7 4.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

8 

1945 . . . 

1946 . . . 

1947. . . 

1948 . . . 

1949. . . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963 . . . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966 . . . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975 . . . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 

7 . VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW 

14.6 0 

12.6 6 

13.7 2 

24.7 3 

17.5 5 

22.7 1 

15.3 3 

20.3 9 

22.3 3 

20.4 3 

15.8 2 

20.4 1 

19.9 2 

18.1 7 

22.4 2 

23.5 3 

26.3 3 

27.9 3 

31.9 1 

30.1 3 

32.4 6 

33.2 7 

30.1 7 

31.0 4 

32.6 2 

39.6 9 

40.8 3 

29.9 7 

. VALUE 

12*3 3 

11.0 1 

12.3 4 

20.2 7 

14.4 3 

18.5 3 

13.6 7 

19.0 3 

18.8 8 

17.7 8 

14.3 4 

18.9 2 

18.5 7 

16.6 1 

20.4 5 

20.4 7 

22.9 5 

24.8 4 

26.9 3 

26.2 8 

28.6 7 

30.0 4 

27.9 7 

28.8 1 

30.3 1 

36.0 7 

34.9 3 

26.6 5 

9 

27*. 99 

18.8 0 

17.9 3 

42.8 0 

16.6 2 

24.1 7 

26.7 9 

32.1 3 

33.9 9 

41.2 2 

31.5 3 

31.9 3 

37.3 2 

36.2 1 

38.7 0 

44.6 1 

50.8 8 

53.0 0 

62.2 9 

49.0 9 

64.5 1 

94.4 3 

88.8 6 

54.3 7 

60.6 1 

87.4 8 

76.5 3 

54.3 9 

14.5 9 

12.5 5 

13.8 0 

22.4 3 

17.5 0 

22.3 1 

15.8 1 

21.0 0 

20.6 6 

20.9 9 

16.1 4 

21.6 2 

20.1 0 

18.8 2 

22.7 6 

24.4 7 

25.5 0 

28.2 2 

31.9 4 

30.1 6 

32.1 1 

34.2 3 

30.5 5 

31.4 8 

33.3 6 

40.1 5 

40.4 3 

29.7 5 

15.1 0 

11.8 4 

14.1 6 

23.2 3 

20.2 4 

20.8 4 

14.9 1 

22.5 3 

21.1 3 1 

20.3 0 

16.7 5 

21.8 5 

19.7 1 

18.9 2 

22.1 6 | 

24.7 8 

25.3 3 

28.9 9 

33.5 2 

29.9 2 

33.9 3 

34.0 1 

30.3 2 

31.3 6 

33.6 0 

41.6 7 

39.8 8 

28.5 2 

OF MANUFACTURERS' 

12.2 2 

10.6 6 

12.3 9 

18.1 3 

14.5 2 

17.7 5 

14.3 9 

18.8 8 

18.3 3 

18.5 2 

14.6 9 

20.4 4 

18.3 9 

16.6 8 

20.2 5 

21.6 5 

22.5 6 

25.1 6 

27.3 1 

26.0 3 

28.2 9 

29.9 1 

27.5 4 

28.7 1 

31.0 7 

36.7 3 

34.5 2 

26.7 6 

12.8 7 

10.4 4 

12.3 1 

18.6 2 

16.2 2 

18.0 0 

14.4 4 

20.2 1 

18.2 1 

18.1 4 

14.8 7 

20.4 1 

17.8 0 

17.9 0 

20.1 7 

21.6 9 

22.4 3 

25.4 0 

28.5 3 

26.0 3 

28.5 5 

30.0 7 

27.6 2 

29.1 4 

31.1 1 

37.3 6 

34.5 2 

26.4 5 

. CONSTRUCTION CO 

29*. 14 

17.5 2 

17.2 9 

36.5 9 

19.2 1 

28.6 7 

22.2 2 

35.0 9 

38.6 5 

40.2 0 

29.9 1 

32.1 6 

36.9 3 

36.4 9 

42.7 5 

45.1 1 

49.1 0 

55.1 2 

70.4 2 

57.8 4 

61.3 9 

69.9 8 

80.9 5 

50.0 4 

66.2 5 

85.8 9 

80.6 7 

46.5 4 

22.5 1 

19.6 6 

23.8 4 

30.4 2 

19.7 1 

24.3 5 

23.9 9 

32.0 4 

42.5 1 

37.8 3 

29.6 3 

35.1 1 

36.7 3 

37.4 9 

45.9 0 

39.4 2 

48.6 5 

54.7 7 

67.9 9 

56.1 4 

66.6 1 

63.5 0 

67.1 1 

62.5 8 

67.1 3 

84.7 1 

75.0 7 

39.6 9 

May 

ORDERS, 

(BILLIONS 

12.2 0 

15.2 7 

10.9 6 

14.9 9 

21.8 6 

20.4 4 

21.3 3 

15.5 4 

21.3 5 

21.8 9 

18.9 1 

15.7 1 

22.0 1 ' 

19.3 9 

19.9 0 

21.7 5 

24.3 5 

26.4 0 

29.6 2 

33.0 1 

30.4 7 

32.5 4 

35.7 9 

29.1 6 

30.3 0 

33.9 1 

40.6 1 

39.2 4 

29.9 9 

12.7 5 

15.2 7 

10.7 9 

16.4 3 

20.9 4 

17.1 3 

21.0 3 

14.9 1 

21.6 6 

21.0 8 

19.4 9 

16.2 6 

20.8 5 

19.6 6 

20.1 1 

21.9 4 

24.8 4 

26.4 3 

28.6 1 

32.2 8 

31.8 2 

32.3 8 

33.8 5 

30.5 2 

30.2 1 

34.6 2 

41.2 6 

41.0 8 

30.2 8 

NEW ORDERS FOR 

(BILLIONS 

12.5 2 

9.9 8 

12.8 8 

16.9 5 

16.7 4 

18.6 2 

14.5 0 

19.6 7 

18.4 8 

17.5 6 

14.8 0 

20.0 4 

17.7 3 

18.3 7 

19.1 7 

22.0 1 

23.4 3 

25.4 0 

27.7 8 

26.3 0 

28.1 6 

29.9 1 

27.2 3 

28.2 9 

31.0 7 

35.8 0 

34.0 9 

27.6 6 

NTRACTS 

12.9 0 

10.0 3 

14.3 7 

16.2 8 

14.7 4 

18.1 3 

14.5 0 

19.5 2 

17.9 0 

17.4 8 

15.2 5 

19.3 4 

17.7 3 

18.8 6 

19.6 9 

21.6 7 

23.0 8 

25.3 4 

27.5 5 

26.5 9 

28.9 6 

29.7 6 

27.9 3 

28.3 9 

31.5 6 

36.8 4 

35.4 4 

28.2 2 

AWARDED 

June 

DURABLE 

July Aug. 

GOODS INDUSTRIES 

OF DOLLARS) 

12.0 8 

16.6 0 

10.3 4 

16.5 4 

20.3 1 

20.5 0 

20.2 5 

15.6 9 

22.0 9 

20.8 8 

19.0 2 

17.6 2 

21.7 6 

20.0 4 

20.5 7 

21.6 9 

23.5 5 

26.4 5 

28.7 5 

33.1 6 

32.6 7 

32.3 8 

33.1 0 

30.5 4 

30.2 4 

35.3 2 

40.9 0 

39.6 1 

29.7 1 

CONSUMER 

OF DOLLAP 

13.8 8 

9.5 7 

14.4 9 

15.7 6 

17.1 2 

17.8 0 

15.2 4 

19.9 1 

17.4 8 

17.6 3 

16.0 6 

19.3 6 

18.0 1 

19.4 1 

19.3 7 

20.9 1 

23.0 5 

25.3 1 

27.5 8 

26.8 1 

28.9 3 

29.9 1 

28.3 7 

27.9 9 

32.1 2 

36.1 3 

34.6 8 

26.1 4 

FOP. COMME 

(MILLION SQUARE FEET OF 

25*6 3 

19.1 6 

27.0 4 

27.2 2 

21.4 4 

26.6 6 

27.1 8 

31.5 1 

42.2 1 

31.9 4 

26.2 5 

41.9 2 

38.7 3 

35.6 2 

42.7 2 

40.2 3 

49.1 2 

57.7 4 

68.2 8 

58.2 7 

47.0 9 

65.8 2 

64.0 0 

57.7 4 

66.9 6 

83.6 1 

82.7 7 

56.9 0 

30.1 2 

16.5 4 

28.1 4 

25.2 7 

19.2 6 

29.9 2 

29.8 1 

31.3 7 

34.1 7 

35.9 0 

28.7 0 

38.5 5 

39.2 5 

35.1 6 

44.6 4 

47.0 0 

46.8 6 

57.5 2 

64.0 0 

54.7 2 

66.9 6 

85.6 0 

58.1 9 

61.2 6 

83.0 1 

83.7 3 

77.9 8 

44.7 9 

25.0 8 

17.6 7 

27.8 6 

24.7 1 

23.8 6 

19.4 4 

29.7 7 

34.6 4 

35.6 8 

40.6 6 

25.5 4 

34.1 9 

40.3 1 

36.7 3 

41.1 6 

51.3 9 

49.9 9 

57.7 2 

65.8 5 

62.3 0 

66.3 5 

80.3 7 

54.4 7 

65.0 0 

71.5 0 

85.7 9 

75.8 3 

50.5 4 

12.1 1 

16.3 3 

10.6 8 

20.1 1 

19.9 2 

18.9 6 

18.8 2 

15.9 9 

22.0 6 

20.5 4 

17.8 9 

17.1 3 

19.9 6 

19.4 7 

20.1 7 

21.9 9 

24.3 1 

27.6 7 

29.6 0 

32.5 8 

31.2 0 

31.5 2 

33.2 5 

30.0 9 

30.8 4 

34.1 4 

40.5 0 

39.1 5 

32.0 1 

12.4 9 

16.0 2 

12.4 1 

24.5 1 

18.1 4 

18.4 6 

16.6 3 

15.9 3 

21.9 6 

24.4 2 

18.6 4 

17.7 0 

19.0 6 

20.3 5 

21.3 1 

22.1 1 

24.2 3 

26.0 7 

29.4 6 

32.1 2 

31.9 3 

32.2 5 

33.2 9 

29.1 7 

30.3 3 

34.6 7 

40.1 5 

39.9 8 

31.7 9 

Sept. 

, IN 197 2 

13.6 9 

14.9 9 

12.6 0 

20.0 6 

17.1 2 

19.9 1 

14.8 9 

17.8 2 

22.8 1 

20.1 9 

18.1 1 

17.5 6 

20.0 8 

20.5 5 

20.9 0 

23.0 3 ! 

24.2 9 

27.0 0 

29.7 2 

33.4 0 

30.7 9 

33;2 0 

34.3 2 

29.8 6 

30.7 9 

36.8 3 

40.2 7 

37.4 2 

32.2 0 

Oct. 

DOLLARS 

13.9 5 

14.8 7 

12.3 6 

20.1 4 

19.0 2 

18.7 0 

15.3 2 

19.2 7 

22.6 2 

20.1 3 

17.1 9 

18.4 9 

20.0 4 

18.8 5 

21.0 9 

23.2 0 

24.4 4 

26.1 6 

29.9 8 

31.9 9 

30.8 6 

34.8 8 

33.6 1 

27.1 6 

30.8 8 

36.0 9 

41.3 8 

34.4 6 

31.6 3 

Nov. 

14.5 8 

14.1 1 

12.9 8 

18.1 9 

18.3 3 

18.8 7 

15.2 5 

16.9 1 

22.5 4 

21.3 5 

17.9 6 

20.0 1 

18.8 0 

19.1 0 

21.9 4 

22.9 6 

24.2 3 

26.4 8 

30.5 9 

31.1 7 

31.1 5 

33.5 3 

32.8 8 

27.4 8 

32.0 1 

37.3 3 

42.4 5 

33.9 5 

31.7 2 

GOODS AND MATERIALS IN 197 2 DOLLARS 

S) 

13.6 5 

10.2 4 

18.0 5 

15.6 7 

16.0 9 

17.6 2 

14.5 7 

20.2 8 

17.5 9 

16.9 3 

16.1 9 

18.5 9 

17.8 6 

18.4 5 

19.9 3 

21.7 5 

23.9 1 

26.0 8 

27.2 2 

26.9 3 

28.3 6 

30.5 6 

27.3 6 

28.6 3 

31.6 4 

35.7 3 

33.3 9 

29.6 7 

13.4 6 

11.8 6 

20.2 1 

14.3 1 

15.7 1 

15.3 9 

15.0 0 

19.6 7 

17.8 4 

17.1 3 

16.6 5 

17.7 2 

17.9 3 

19.4 0 

20.3 0 

21.2 7 

23.3 8 

25.6 8 

27.4 5 

28.1 9 

27.7 2 

29.8 7 

27.2 0 

28.3 8 

32.7 7 

35.6 8 

32.9 2 

30.0 0 

12.7 1 

11.9 6 

15.9 6 

13.7 3 

16.5 8 

13.7 7 

15.7 8 

19.3 5 

17.3 8 

17.1 9 

16.9 4 

18.1 1 

18.1 3 

19.1 1 

20.3 7 

21.2 3 

24.3 8 

25.1 8 

27.0 7 

26.9 1 

29.3 4 

30.1 4 

27.2 7 

28.1 1 

33.4 1 

35.3 6 

31.5 7 

30.5 0 

RCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BUIL 

FLOOR SPACE) 

31*4 1 

I 16.2 2 

27.4 7 

22.3 3 

21.6 1 

39.1 8 

25.9 7 

37.4 9 

35.3 1 

33.5 5 

30.1 2 

37.6 4 

38.8 7 

36.5 7 

40.5 6 

45.7 8 

53.4 0 

56.6 8 

63.5 4 

56.7 2 

71.6 5 

73.7 0 

70.4 5 

61.7 7 

68.4 4 

95.4 2 

76.6 4 

52.6 0 

22.8 9 

12.5 6 

34.4 6 

22.3 2 

24.1 6 

25.9 0 

27.6 2 

35.4 9 

37.0 6 

33.3 8 

34.0 2 

34.1 4 

39.3 8 

39.3 2 

42.6 9 

44.9 3 

49.2 8 

52.0 0 

63.5 2 

61.6 6 

66.1 5 

71.9 6 

61.0 4 

54.6 2 

72.0 5 

89.8 0 

82.1 7 

43.2 5 

23.3 9 

18.9 5 

31.0 5 

25.2 6 

21.3 4 

27.3 7 

28.2 8 

40.2 7 

36.8 1 

31.5 1 

30.3 3 

38.3 8 

38.9 6 

38.7 3 

40.9 6 

43.8 8 

51.2 1 

62.9 7 

64.4 0 

60.4 5 

61.5 9 

68.9 0 

60.1 6 

68.0 9 

73.3 5 

83.7 7 

73.7 0 

50.1 2 

12.3 0 

11.1 7 

16.1 1 

15.2 1 

15.7 2 

13.3 2 

15.9 7 

19.1 3 

17.9 5 

16.4 6 

17.1 2 

17.7 0 

17.6 1 

19.2 0 

20.5 8 

22.0 4 

22.9 8 

25.5 7 

27.3 0 

26.3 0 

29.9 1 

30.1 3 

25.5 9 

28.5 1 

33.3 9 

35.7 2 

30.5 5 

30.4 4 

DINGS ' 

23.1 8 

16.9 0 

31.5 5 

19.4 2 

24.3 2 

31.0 5 

31.1 7 

34.4 5 

30.9 0 

30.9 8 

33.0 7 

41.4 4 

39.4 4 

33.8 8 

41.0 8 

50.8 1 

53.4 6 

60.5 5 

54.7 6 

58.4 2 

79.6 3 

79.9 6 

51.7 1 

63.4 5 

75.6 1 

91.6 0 

62.4 7 

54.1 0 

11.9 1 

11.6 6 

14.6 8 

14.6 6 

15.7 8 

13.5 6 

16.9 2 

19.8 5 

18.0 2 

15.8 1 

18.0 4 

17.3 1 

17.4 3 

20.2 2 

20.4 6 

21.9 7 

23.5 7 

26.5 5 

26.6 6 

27.4 0 

30.2 6 

29.1 3 

25.4 0 

29.5 8 

34.3 6 

36.4 6 

29.7 7 

30.2 1 

20.7 2 

17.8 2 

34.1 9 

18.2 1 

26.9 5 

31.3 0 

26.1 5 

37.3 6 

35.9 1 

32.6 7 

30.7 6 

36.0 3 

39.4 4 

41.6 1 

42.2 0 

43.7 3 

52.5 7 

61.7 4 

64.4 2 

63.1 7 

69.7 0 

64.3 1 

54.0 0 

66.4 1 

79.9 3 

87.4 7 

56.7 1 

41.9 9 

Dec. 

15.2 6 

13.6 9 

12.7 4 

19.2 8 

17.7 5 

20.3 3 

15.2 8 

19.1 0 

23.4 9 

21.2 6 

16.5 4 

19.2 8 

20.8 2 

19.3 9 

22.7 6 

24.3 4 

23.7 7 

28.2 0 

31.4 9 

31.2 5 

34.0 1 

33.8 7 

32.8 1 

30.9 3 

32.5 1 

39.1 6 

40.1 5 

31.2 3 

32.7 3 

11.4 0 

11.4 5 

15.5 5 

14.1 9 

17.0 5 

13.6 8 

18.1 4 

19.4 6 

18.1 9 

14.9 1 

18.2 4 

19.0 6 

17.3 9 

20.9 9 

20.1 7 

21.8 7 

24.8 2 

27.3 4 

26.4 6 

29.3 6 

29.7 1 

28.9 6 

28.0 4 

29.8 2 

35.2 7 

34.9 1 

27.1 3 

31.5 6 

18.2 8 

18.0 9 

27.9 3 

25.7 4 

34.0 0 

18.4 5 

31.6 2 

35.1 7 

33.3 1 

32.7 3 

29.0 6 

39.4 4 

38.1 5 

41.6 9 

41.8 9 

45.4 3 

57.9 1 

64.1 3 

60.2 1 

64.0 8 

71.4 7 

86.8 9 

54.6 9 

66.8 3 

79.4 2 

69.5 1 

54.2 5 

50.7 1 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

44.2 9 

37.0 5 

41.6 8 

70.3 9 

55.2 9 

65.8 6 

46.0 5 

63.9 2 

64.1 2 

61.7 2 

48.7 1 

63.8 8 

59.7 3 

55.9 1 

67.3 4 

72.7 8 

77.2 1 

85.1 4 

97.3 7 

90.2 1 

98.5 0 

101.5 1 

91;0 4 

93.8 8 

99.5 8 

121.5 1 

121.1 4 

88.2 4 

37*4 2 

32.1 1 

37.0 4 . 

57.0 2 

45.1 7 

54.2 8 

42.5 0 

58.1 2 

55.4 2 

54.4 4 

43.9 0 

59.7 7 

54.7 6 

51.1 9 

60.8 7 

63.8 1 

67.9 4 

75.4 0 

82.7 7 

78.3 4 

85.5 1 

90.0 2 

83.1 3 

J 86.6 6 

92.4 9 

110.1 6 

1 103.9 7 

79.8 6 

79.6 4 

55.9 8 

59.0 6 

109.8 1 

55.5 4 

77.1 9 

73.0 0 

99.2 6 

115.1 5 

119.2 5 

91.0 7 

99.2 0 

110.9 8 

110.1 9 

127.3 5 

129.1 4 

148.6 3 

162.8 9 

200.7 0 

163.0 7 

192.5 1 

1 227.9 1 

1 236.9 2 

1 166.9 9 

1 193.9 9 

1 258.0 8 

1 232.2 7 

1 140.6 2 

II Q III Q IV Q 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

37.0 3 

47.1 4 

32.0 9 

47.9 6 

63.1 1 

58.0 7 

62.6 1 

46.1 4 

65.1 0 

63.8 5 

57.4 2 

49.5 9 

64.6 2 

59.0 9 

60.5 8 

65.3 8 

72.7 4 

79.2 8 

86.9 8 

98.4 5 

94.9 6 

97.3 0 

102.7 4 

90.2 2 

90.7 5 

103.8 5 

122.7 7 

119.9 3 

89.9 8 

38.2 9 

47.3 4 

35.6 9 

64.6 8 

55.1 8 

57.3 3 

50.3 4 

49.7 4 

66.8 3 

65.1 5 

54.6 4 

52.3 9 

59.1 0 

60.3 7 

62.3 8 

67.1 3 

72.8 3 

80.7 4 

88.7 8 

98.1 0 

93.9 2 

96.9 7 

100.8 6 

89.1 2 

91.9 6 

105.6 4 

120.9 2 

116.5 5 

96.0 0 

43.7 9 

42.6 7 

38.0 8 

57.6 1 

55.1 0 

57.9 0 

45.8 5 

55.2 8 

68.6 5 

62.7 4 

51.6 9 

57.7 8 

59.6 6 

57.3 4 

65.7 9 

70.5 0 

72.4 4 

80.8 4 

92.0 6 

94.4 1 

96.0 2 

102.2 8 

99.3 0 

85.5 7 

95.4 0 

112.5 8 

123.9 8 

99.6 4 

96.0 8 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

39.3 0 

29.5 8 

41.7 4 

48.9 9 

48.6 0 

54.5 5 

44.2 4 

59.1 0 

53.8 6 

52.6 7 

46.1 1 

58.7 4 

53.4 7 

56.6 4 

58.2 3 

64.5 9 

69.5 6 

76.0 5 

82.9 1 

79.7 0 

86.0 5 

89.5 8 

83.5 3 

84.6 7 

94.7 5 

108.7 7 

104.2 1 

84.0 2 

39.8 2 

34.0 6 

54.2 2 

43.7 1 

48.3 8 

46.7 8 

45.3 5 

59.3 0 

52.8 1 

51.2 5 

49.7 8 

54.4 2 

53.9 2 

56.9 6 

60.6 0 

64.2 5 

71.6 7 

76.9 4 

81.7 4 

82.0 3 

85.4 2 

90.5 7 

81.8 3 

85.1 2 

97.8 2 

106.7 7 

97.8 8 

90.1 7 

35.6 1 

34.2 8 

46.3 4 

44.0 6 

48.5 5 

40.5 6 j 

51.0 3 

58.4 4 

54.1 6 

47.1 8 

53.4 0 

54.0 7 

52.4 3 

60.4 1 

61.2 1 

65.8 8 

71.3 7 

79.4 6 

80.4 2 

83.0 6 

89.8 8 

88.2 2 

79.0 3 

87.9 1 

103.0 2 

107.0 9 

87.4 5 

92.2 1 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

80.8 3 

53.3 7 

83.0 4 

77.2 0 

64.5 6 

76.0 2 

86.7 6 

97.5 2 

112.0 6 

108.5 0 

80.4 9 

114.6 6 

118.2 9 

107.5 1 

128.5 2 

138.6 2 

145.9 7 

172.9 8 

198.1 3 

175.2 9 

180.4 0 

231.7 9 

176.6 6 

184.0 0 

221.4 7 

253.1 3 

236.5 8 

152.2 3 

77.6 9 

47.7 3 

92.9 8 

69.9 1 

67.1 1 

92.4 5 

81.8 7 

113.2 5 

109.1 8 

98.4 4 

94.4 7 

110.1 6 

117.2 1 

114.6 2 

124.2 1 

134.5 9 

153.8 9 

171.6 5 

191.4 6 

178.8 3 

199.3 9 

214.5 6 

191.6 5 

184.4 8 

213.8 4 

268.9 9 

232.5 1 

145.9 7 

62.1 8 

52.8 1 

93.6 7 

63.3 7 

85.2 7 

80.8 0 

88.9 4 

106.9 8 

100.1 2 

96.3 8 

92.8 9 

116.9 1 

117.0 3 

117.1 8 

125.1 7 

139.9 7 

163.9 4 

186.4 2 

179.3 9 

185.6 7 

220.8 0 

231.1 6 

160.4 0 

196.6 9 

234.9 6 

248.5 8 

173.4 3 

146.8 0 

Annual 

1 8 1 * 44 

142.9 1 

211.9 3 

243.7 6 

228.5 9 

224.6 6 

197.2 1 

264.5 0 

255.8 6 

225.4 7 

208.4 7 

247.2 6 

236.5 3 

244.6 6 

270.3 5 

290.7 9 

318.0 7 

352.9 6 

388.3 3 

375.1 1 

395.0 5 

404.4 1 

355.9 5 

371.9 9 

421.6 5 

489.1 8 

457.2 6 

370.3 0 

152.*15 

130.0 3 

179.3 4 

193.7 8 

190.7 0 

196.1 7 

183.1 2 

234.9 6 

216.2 5 

205.5 4 

193.1 9 

227.0 0 

214.5 8 

225.2 0 

240.9 1 

258.5 3 

280.5 4 

307.8 5 

327.8 4 

323.1 3 

346.8 6 

358.3 9 

327.5 2 

344.3 6 

388.0 8 

432.7 9 

393.5 1 

346.2 6 

300*3 4 

209.8 9 

328.7 5 

320.2 9 

272.4 8 

326.4 6 

330.5 7 

417.0 1 

436.5 1 

422.5 7 

358.9 2 

440.9 3 

1 463.5 1 

I 449.5 0 

1 505.2 5 

1 542.3 2 

1 612.4 3 

1 693.94 

1 769.6 8 

1 702.8 6 

1 793.1 0 

1 905.4 2 

1 765.6 3 

1 732.1 6 

1 864.2 6 

1 1028.7 8 

1 874.7 9 

1 585.6 2 

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 

80 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . | 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

9 . 

2.6 0 

1.7 5 

1.6 7 

3.9 8 

1.5 4 

2.2 5 

2.4 9 

2.9 8 

3.1 6 

3.8 3 

2.9 3 

2.9 7 

3.4 7 

3.3 6 

3.6 0 

4.1 4 

4.7 3 

4.9 2 

5.7 9 

4.5 6 

5.9 9 

8.7 7 

8.2 6 

5.0 5 

5.6 3 

8.1 3 

7.1 1 

5.0 5 

i!so 

1.3 1 

1.6 0 

3.4 3 

2.5 1 

2.8 4 

2.2 0 

2.5 0 

3.3 5 

3.6 5 

2.7 7 

3.0 9 

3.2 7 

3.4 8 

3.6 2 

3.8 0 

4.7 0 

4.8 9 

5.8 1 

5.3 0 

6.0 7 

9.1 3 

9.6 2 

8.2 1 

9.2 4 

11.4 3 

14.0 6 

13.0 6 

126. 0 

96. 2 

88. 9 

93. 1 

96. 0 

99. 0 

88. 7 

98. 5 

97. 4 

91. 7 

86. 3 

96. 5 

97. 6 

85. 3 

90. 0 

91. 6 

95. 2 

99. 0 

101. 7 

95. 1 

106. 3 

117. 2 

114. 0 

106. 2 

115. 2 

119. 1 

113. 3 

102. 9 

Feb. Mar. Apr. May June ' July 

CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED FOR COMMERCIAL AND 

2*7 1 

1.6 3 

1.6 1 

3.4 0 

1.7 8 

2.6 6 

2.0 6 

3.2 6 

3.5 9 

3.7 3 

2.7 8 

2.9 9 

3.4 3 

3.3 9 

3.9 7 

4.1 9 

4.5 6 

5.1 2 

6.5 4 

5.3 7 

5.7 0 

6.5 0 

7.5 2 

4.6 5 

6.1 5 

7.9 8 

7.4 9 

4.3 2 

Aug. Sept. Oct. 

INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS ' 

(MILLION SQUARE METERS OF FLOOR SPACE) 

2*0 9 

1.8 3 

2.2 1 

2.8 3 

1.8 3 

2.2 6 

2.2 3 

2.9 8 

3.9 5 

3.5 1 

2.7 5 

3.2 6 

3.4 1 

3.4 8 

4.2 6 

3.6 6 

4.5 2 

5.0 9 

6.3 2 

5.2 2 

6.1 9 

5.9 0 

6.2 3 

5.8 1 

6.2 4 

7.8 7 

6.9 7 

3.6 9 

1 0 . CONTRACTS I 

1*72 

1.4 2 

1.6 0 

3.5 1 

2.5 5 

2.8 8 

2.2 4 

2.7 2 

3.2 6 

3.5 5 

2.6 7 

3.1 9 

3.3 5 

3.4 0 

3.9 4 

3.9 1 

4.2 4 

4.9 3 

6.2 8 

5.6 9 

8.0 3 

9.5 3 

9.2 5 

9.0 0 

9.5 5 

12.0 6 

14.3 2 

12.2 1 

... 

121. 8 

91. 7 

91. 5 

93. 4 

96. 6 

98. 9 

88. 1 

100. 0 

97. 8 

91. 5 

85. 4 

97. 0 

96. 1 

87. 1 

90. 7 

92. 8 

95. 8 

99. 1 

102. 1 

95. 7 

106. 8 

117. 2 

113. 9 

105. 5 

114. 7 

119. 9 

113. 0 

101. 7 

1.6 6 

1.4 1 

1.7 4 

3.1 9 

2.5 9 

2.6 4 

1.9 1 

3.1 5 

3.2 8 

3.5 2 

2.6 6 

3.7 3 

3.2 7 

3.2 5 

3.6 5 

3.8 8 

4.4 3 

5.2 2 

6.1 4 

5.8 1 

9.3 7 

8.8 6 

8.7 6 

9.2 1 

10.2 9 

12.2 8 

14.6 8 

11.8 8 

... 

117* 8 

88. 2 

93. 1 

94. 8 

97. 2 

98. 0 

87. 8 

100. 1 

97. 6 

91. 9 

84. 9 

98. 3 

94. 7 

88. 0 

90. 9 

93. 1 

95. 7 

98. 6 

102. 1 

96. 0 

106. 6 

116. 6 

110. 8 

108. 2 

116. 2 

120. 8 

113. 9 

103. 0 

2.3 8 

1.7 8 

2.5 1 

2.5 3 

1.9 9 

2.4 8 

2.5 3 

2.9 3 

3.9 2 

2.9 7 

2.4 4 

3.8 9 

3.6 0 

3.3 1 

3.9 7 

3.7 4 

4.5 6 

5.3 6 

6.3 4 

5.4 1 

4.3 7 

6.1 1 

5.9 5 

5.3 6 

6.2 2 

7.7 7 

7.6 9 

5.2 9 

2.8 0 

1.5 4 

2.6 1 

2.3 5 

1.7 9 

2.7 8 

2.7 7 

2.9 1 

3.1 7 

3.3 4 

2.6 7 

3.5 8 

3.6 5 

3.2 7 

4.1 5 

4.3 7 

4.3 5 

5.3 4 

5.9 5 

5.0 8 

6.2 2 

7.9 5 

5.4 1 

5.6 9 

7.7 1 

7.7 8 

7.2 4 

4.1 6 

2.3 3 

1.6 4 

2.5 9 

2.3 0 

2.2 2 

1.8 1 

2.7 7 

3.2 2 

3.3 1 

3.7 8 

2.3 7 

3.1 8 

3.7 4 

3.4 1 

3.8 2 

4.7 7 

4.6 4 

5.3 6 

6.1 2 

5.7 9 

6.1 6 

7.4 7 

5.0 6 

6.0 4 

6.6 4 

7.9 7 

7.0 4 

4.7 0 

WD ORDERS FOR PLANT AND 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLAR 

1*84 

1.2 1 

1.7 4 

3.2 1 

2.5 6 

2.8 8 

1.9 6 

2.9 3 

3.4 0 

3.1 5 

2.6 9 

3.3 5 

3.5 2 

3.2 7 

3.8 5 

3.9 8 

4.4 6 

5.2 5 

6.4 1 

5.7 0 

8.0 6 

10.0 5 

8.4 0 

8.8 7 

10.1 6 

12.3 7 

13.9 5 

13.3 6 

... 

1*59 

1.2 5 

2.1 6 

4.3 6 

2.3 9 

2.7 6 

2.0 0 

2.8 0 

3.5 6 

3.2 9 

2.7 2 

3.4 6 

3.5 1 

3.2 2 

3.6 8 

4.3 6 

4.8 2 

5.1 8 

6.3 4 

5.8 8 

7.4 4 

9.3 9 

8.3 8 

8.7 9 

10.9 6 

13.0 4 

15.3 6 

14.0 7 

1.8 4 

1.3 7 

2.0 9 

2.9 8 

2.6 9 

2.1 6 

2.0 5 

2.9 9 

3.6 0 

3.1 3 

2.8 5 

3.5 4 

3.4 1 

3.4 1 

3.6 1 

3.9 9 

4.9 5 

5.1 0 

6.2 1 

6.1 1 

7.4 9 

8.9 5 

8.0 7 

9.6 8 

9.9 2 

13.0 5 

14.1 6 

13.8 7 

1 2 . INDEX OF NET BUSINE 

... 

118* 5 

88. 3 

95. 1 

91. 8 

96. 5 

98. 2 

89. 8 

99. 4 

96. 3 

91. 7 

84. 8 

98. 6 

94. 8 

88. 4 

90. 6 

91. 9 

96. 8 

97. 3 

100. 2 

96. 3 

104. 9 

117. 0 

110. 1 

108. 6 

117. 7 

119. 3 

115. 9 

103. 4 

(1967-100 ) 

... 

... 116. 9 

85. 6 

94. 2 

92. 1 

98. 4 

95. 7 

90. 1 

99. 5 

96. 4 

91. 1 

87. 7 

97. 8 

93. 0 

88. 7 

90. 6 

92. 4 

98. 0 

97. 9 

99. 2 

97. 6 

104. 7 

116. 6 

108. 0 

109. 8 

118. 3 

118. 8 

116. 3 

104. 8 

... 

... 114. 6 

85. 5 

95. 8 

91. 7 

99. 4 

94. 0 

90. 2 

100. 2 

95. 0 

91. 8 

88. 3 

96. 4 

93. 2 

89. 0 

90. 4 

92. 8 

96. 4 

98. 7 

98. 9 

100. 6 

106. 4 

116. 8 

106. 6 

112. 0 

117.6 1 

118. 5 

115. 7 1 

110. 7 

2.9 2 

1.5 1 

2.5 5 

2.0 7 

2.0 1 

3.6 4 

2.4 1 

3.4 8 

3.2 8 

3.1 2 

2.8 0 

3.5 0 

3.6 1 

3.4 0 

3.7 7 

4.2 5 

4.9 6 

5.2 7 

5.9 0 

5.2 7 

6.6 6 

6.8 5 

6.5 4 

5.7 4 

6.3 6 

8.8 6 

7.1 2 

4.8 9 

EQUIPMENT 

S) 

l.*68 

1.2 6 

2.5 3 

2.8 4 

2.7 6 

2.6 6 

2.1 5 

2.9 7 

3.4 3 

3.0 6 

2.7 5 

3.6 1 

3.4 1 

3.4 9 

3.6 5 

3.9 6 

4.6 4 

5.2 7 

6.6 4 

6.0 5 

8.5 6 

8.9 3 

8.4 9 

8.2 4 

10.7 3 

13.2 1 

16.5 3 

13.1 9 

2.1 3 

1.1 7 

3.2 0 

2.0 7 

2.2 4 

2.4 1 

2.5 7 

3.3 0 

3.4 4 

3.1 0 

3.1 6 

3.1 7 

3.6 6 

3.6 5 

3.9 7 

4.1 7 

4.5 8 

4.8 3 

5.9 0 

5.7 3 

6.1 5 

6.6 9 

5.6 7 

5.0 7 

6.6 9 

8.3 4 

7.6 3 

4.0 2 

2.1 7 

1.7 6 

2.8 8 

2.3 5 

1.9 8 

2.5 4 

2.6 3 

3.7 4 

3.4 2 

2.9 3 

2.8 2 

3.5 7 

3.6 2 

3.6 0 

3.8 1 

4.0 8 

4.7 6 

5.8 5 

5.9 8 

5.6 2 

5.7 2 

6.4 0 

5.5 9 

6.3 3 

6.8 1 

7.7 8 

6.8 5 

4.6 6 

2.1 5 

1.5 7 

2.9 3 

1.8 0 

2.2 6 

2.8 8 

2.9 0 

3.2 0 

2.8 7 

2.8 8 

3.0 7 

3.8 5 

3.6 6 

3.1 5 

3.8 2 

4.7 2 

4.9 7 

5.6 3 

5.0 9 

5.4 3 

7.4 0 

7.4 3 

4.8 0 

5.8 9 

7.0 2 

8.5 1 

5.8 0 

5.0 3 

IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

~ 

1.6 0 

1.3 6 

3.2 0 

2.7 3 

2.4 8 

2.2 3 

2.1 5 

3.1 5 

3.4 1 

3.1 3 

3.1 3 

3.2 2 

3.4 1 

3.6 7 

3.6 6 

4.0 7 

4.6 9 

5.0 8 

6.2 2 

6.2 6 

8.6 3 

8.9 5 

8.0 6 

9.1 5 

9.9 2 

13.2 3 

15.2 0 

14.4 7 

SS FORMATION 

ll6'.8 

83. 4 

94. 5 

92. 2 

97. 2 

94. 4 

91. 0 

100. 0 

94. 7 

91. 3 

89. 8 

96. 3 

92. 6 

88. 5 

90. 5 

93. 4 

96. 3 

99. 1 

97. 6 

100. 7 

109. 9 

116. 8 

105. 5 

112. 5 

118. 5 

118. 2 

118. 6 

113. 7 

... 109. 2 

84. 3 

93. 5 

91. 9 

99. 9 

94. 0 

92. 4 

99. 1 

94. 2 

90. 3 

91. 9 

96. 1 

91. 0 

87. 7 

91. 1 

94. 3 

96. 6 

98. 3 

96. 7 

103. 0 

111. 2 

116. 1 

104. 8 

113. 1 

117. 9 

117. 2 

114. 6 

112. 6 

1.5 9 

1.4 9 

3.0 1 

2.3 6 

3.3 4 

2.5 7 

2.3 1 

3.3 3 

3.3 3 

2.8 3 

3.1 4 

3.6 3 

3.4 4 

3.4 3 

3.6 4 

4.2 0 

4.7 5 

5.4 9 

6.7 9 

6.0 9 

7.9 4 

10.0 4 

8.1 5 

9.2 9 

11.3 9 

13.1 6 

15.6 1 

12.7 5 

... 106. 5 

86. 2 

92. 8 

93. 7 

100. 1 

90. 6 

92. 9 

99. 2 

93. 2 

89. 7 

92. 9 

96. 1 

90. 6 

87. 8 

91. 2 

94. 0 1 

99. 0 

98. 7 

95. 5 

102. 3 

112. 9 

114. 7 

105. 3 

112. 2 

119. 2 

115. 6 

111. 1 

113. 1 

1.6 2 

1.4 3 

2.7 1 

2.6 3 

2.5 0 

2.7 2 

2.4 3 

3.2 0 

3.3 4 

2.8 9 

3.0 4 

3.5 0 

3.3 4 

3.5 1 

3.7 3 

4.2 8 

4.7 9 

5.5 1 

6.2 0 

6.1 9 

9.5 0 

9.1 9 

7.4 2 

8.9 0 

10.9 4 

14.6 7 

14.9 1 

12.6 4 

... 

106*6 

86. 1 

92. 6 

94. 1 

99. 8 

90. 7 

94. 5 

97. 9 

94. 4 

88. 9 

93. 0 

95. 3 

90. 3 

89. 3 

91. 2 

94. 3 

99. 8 

98. 2 

96. 1 

102. 5 

115. 8 

116. 1 

105. 4 

114. 1 

120. 2 

116. 2 

105. 2 

112. 0 

Nov. 

l!*-2 

1.6 6 

3.1 8 

1.6 9 

2.5 0 

2.9 1 

2.4 3 

3.4 7 

3.3 4 

3.0 4 

2.8 6 

3.3 5 

3.6 6 

3.8 7 

3.9 2 

4.0 6 

4.8 8 

5.7 4 

5.9 8 

5.8 7 

6.4 8 

5.9 7 

5.0 2 

6.1 7 

7.4 3 

8.1 3 

5.2 7 

3.9 0 

1.6 0 

1.6 1 

2.7 2 

2.6 3 

2.3 6 

2.3 4 

2.2 5 

3.4 5 

3.7 9 

2.8 9 

3.0 0 

3.3 0 

3.2 0 

3.7 2 

4.0 0 

4.5 0 

5.1 0 

5.4 5 

6.1 4 

6.2 2 

8.2 1 

8.9 6 

8.2 9 

9.4 6 

11.2 5 

14.6 7 

13.2 2 

12.6 8 

100* 9 

88. 2 

93. 2 

95. 7 

99. 0 

89. 2 

95. 3 

97. 8 

92. 6 

88. 1 

93. 9 

96. 8 

87. 9 

90. 2 

90. 7 

94. 0 

98. 2 

98. 7 

93. 6 

104. 3 

115. 4 

114. 3 

106. 3 

114. 8 

119. 4 

117. 6 

105. 1 

112. 5 

Dec. 

1*70 

1.6 8 

2.5 9 

2.3 9 

3.1 6 

1.7 1 

2.9 4 

3.2 7 

3.0 9 

3.0 4 

2.7 0 

3.6 6 

3.5 4 

3.8 7 

3.8 9 

4.2 2 

5.3 8 

5.9 6 

5.5 9 

5.9 5 

6.6 4 

8.0 7 

5.0 8 

6.2 1 

7.3 8 

6.4 6 

5.0 4 

4.7 1 

K 5 9 

1.4 6 

3.0 0 

2.8 3 

2.8 3 

2.1 4 

2.4 0 

3.4 5 

3.5 8 

2.7 4 

2.9 1 

3.4 9 

3.4 9 

3.4 3 

4.0 8 

4.5 6 

5.1 7 

5.8 2 

6.1 4 

6.4 0 

8.9 7 

9.2 2 

9.1 3 

9.8 0 

11.6 1 

14.1 1 

14.6 6 

12.3 7 

... 

101. 8 

90. 0 

92. 2 

94. 9 

98. 7 

90. 0 

95. 1 

97. 4 

93. 0 

86. 6 

94. 6 j 

97. 0 

87. 3 

90. 1 

90. 9 

94. 5 

98. 7 

99. 5 

94. 4 

105. 9 

116. 9 

114. 9 

105. 3 

115. 2 

119. 8 

114. 0 

106. 3 

116. 0 

Quarterly 

IQ 

7!4 0 

5.2 1 

5.4 9 

10.2 1 

5.1 5 

7.1 7 

6.7 8 

9.2 2 

10.7 0 

11.0 7 

8.4 6 

9.2 2 

10.3 1 

10.2 3 

11.8 3 

11.9 9 

13.8 1 

15.1 3 

18.6 5 

15.1 5 

17.8 8 

21.1 7 

22.0 1 

15.5 1 

18.0 2 

23.9 8 

21.5 7 

1 3 . 06 

~' 

4*8 8 

4.1 4 

4.9 4 

10.1 3 

7.6 5 

8.3 6 

6.3 5 

8.3 7 

9.8 9 

10.7 2 

8.1 0 

10.0 1 

9.8 9 

10.1 3 

11.2 1 

11.5 9 

13.3 7 

15.0 4 

18.2 3 

16.8 0 

23.4 7 

27.5 2 

27.6 3 

26.4 2 

29.0 8 

35.7 7 

43.0 6 

37.1 5 

121* 9 

92. 0 

91. 2 

93. 8 

96. 6 

98. 6 

88. 2 

99. 5 

97. 6 

91. 7 

85. 5 

97. 3 

96. 1 

86. 8 

90. 5 

92. 5 

95. 6 

98. 9 

102. 0 

95. 6 

106. 6 

117. 0 

112. 9 

106. 6 

115. 4 

119. 9 

113. 4 

102. 5 

II Q III Q IVQ 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

i/si 4.9 6 

7.7 1 

7.1 8 

6.0 0 

7.0 7 

8.0 7 

9.0 6 

10.4 0 

10.0 9 

7.4 8 

10.6 5 

10.9 9 

9.9 9 

11.9 4 

12.8 8 

13.5 5 

16.0 6 

18.4 1 

16.2 8 

16.7 5 

21.5 3 

16.4 2 

17.0 9 

20.5 7 

23.5 2 

21.9 7 

14.1 5 

7.2 2 

4.4 4 

8.6 3 

6.4 9 

6.2 3 

8.5 9 

7.6 1 

10.5 2 

10.1 4 

9.1 5 

8.7 8 

10.2 4 

10.8 9 

10.6 5 

11.5 5 

12.5 0 

14.3 0 

15.9 5 

17.7 8 

16.6 2 

18.5 3 

19.9 4 

17.8 0 

17.1 4 

19.8 6 

24.9 8 

21.6 0 

13.5 7 

5.7 7 

4.9 1 

8.7 0 

5.8 8 

7.9 2 

7.5 0 

8.2 7 

9.9 4 

9.3 0 

8.9 6 

8.6 3 

10.8 6 

10.8 6 

10.8 9 

11.6 3 

13.0 0 

15.2 3 

17.3 3 

16.6 6 

17.2 5 

20.5 2 

21.4 7 

14.9 0 

18.2 7 

21.8 3 

23.1 0 

16.1 1 

13.6 4 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

5*27 

3.8 3 

5.9 9 

10.5 5 

7.6 4 

7.8 0 

6.0 1 

8.7 2 

10.5 6 

9.5 7 

8.2 6 

10.3 5 

10.4 4 

9.9 0 

11.1 4 

12.3 3 

14.2 3 

15.5 3 

18.9 6 

17.6 9 

22.9 9 

28.3 9 

24.8 5 

27.3 4 

31.0 4 

38.4 6 

43.4 7 

41.3 0 

4.8 7 

4.1 1 

8.7 4 

7.9 3 

8.5 8 

7.4 6 

6.6 1 

9.4 5 

10.1 7 

9.0 2 

9.0 2 

10.4 6 

10.2 6 

10.5 9 

10.9 5 

12.2 3 

14.0 8 

15.8 4 

19.6 5 

18.4 0 

25.1 3 

27.9 2 

24.7 0 

26.6 8 

32.0 4 

39.6 0 

47.3 4 

40.4 1 

4.8 1 

4.5 0 

8.4 3 

8.0 9 

7.6 9 

7.2 0 

7.0 8 

10.1 0 

10.7 1 

8.5 2 

8.9 5 

10.2 9 

10.0 3 

10.6 6 

11.8 1 

13.3 4 

15.0 6 

16.7 8 

18.4 8 1 

18.8 1 

26.6 8 

27.3 7 

24.8 4 

28.1 6 

33.8 0 

43.4 5 

42.7 9 

37.6 9 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

... 116. 7 

86. 5 

95. 0 

91. 9 

98. 1 

96. 0 

90. 0 

99. 7 

95. 9 

91. 5 

86. 9 

97. 6 

93. 7 

88. 7 

90. 5 

92. 4 

97. 1 

98. 0 

99. 4 

98. 2 

105. 3 

116. 6 

108. 2 

110. 1 

117. 9 

118. 9 

116. 0 

106. 3 

... 

108. 8 

84. 6 

93. 6 

92. 6 

99. 1 

93. 0 

92. 1 

99. 4 

94. 0 

90. 4 

91. 5 

96. 2 

91. 4 

88. 0 

90. 9 

93. 9 

97. 3 

98. 7 

96. 6 

102. 0 

111. 3 

115. 9 

105. 2 

112. 6 

118. 5 

117. 0 

114. 8 

113. 1 

... 

102* 9 

88. 1 

92. 7 

94. 9 

99. 2 

90. 0 

95. 0 

97. 7 

93. 3 

87. 9 

93. 8 

96. 4 

88. 5 

89. 9 

90. 9 

94. 3 

98. 9 

98. 8 

94. 7 

104. 2 

116. 0 

115. 1 

105. 7 

114. 7 

119. 8 

115. 9 

105. 5 

113. 5 

, Annual 

27.9 0 

19.5 2 

30.5 3 

29.7 6 

25.3 0 

30.3 3 

30.7 3 

38.7 4 

40.5 4 

39.2 7 

33.3 5 

40.9 7 

43.0 5 

1 41.7 6 

46.9 5 

50.3 7 

56.8 9 

64.4 7 

71.5 0 

65.3 0 

73.6 8 

84.1 1 

71.1 3 

68.0 1 

1 80.2 8 

95.5 8 

81.2 5 

54.4 2 

19*8 3 

16.5 8 

28.1 0 

36.7 0 

31.5 6 

30.8 2 

j 26.0 5 

36.6 4 

41.3 3 

37.8 3 

34.3 3 

41.1 1 

40.6 2 

41.2 8 

45.1 1 

49.4 9 

56.7 4 

63.1 9 

75.3 2 

71.7 0 

98.2 7 

111.2 0 

102.0 2 

108.6 0 

125.9 6 

157.2 8 

176.6 6 

156.5 5 

... 

... 112. 6 

87. 8 

93. 1 

93. 3 

98. 2 

94. 4 

91. 3 

99. 1 

95. 2 

90. 4 

89. 5 

96. 8 

92. 4 

88. 3 

90. 7 

93. 3 

97. 2 

98. 6 

98. 2 

100. 0 

109. 8 

116. 2 

108. 0 

111. 0 

117. 9 

117. 9 

112. 4 

108. 9 

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems company, F. W. Dodge Division. Data have 

been converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

l94b... 

1947... 

ly4b... 

l94y... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

195b... 

1957... 

195a... 

1959... 

19bU. .. 

1961... 

1962... 

I9b3... 

1964... 

1965... 

1*66... 

1967.. . 

1966... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

19^5... 

1946... 

1947... 

1946... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

195U... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

9,922 

9,380 

7,012 

7,83U 

7,214 

7,080 

8,304 

8,638 

11,902 

11,620 

11,250 

11,042 

16,346 

16,561 

13,607 

15,599 

14,924 

15,993 

16,784 

18,087 

16,703 

18,061 

21,364 

22,196 

22,563 

25,270 

27,796 

26,511 

24,406 

5.38 

4.37 

15.19 

12.96 

19.16 

26.44 

21.68 

26.21 

23.31 

29.59 

37.87 

42.89 

54.06 

64.44 

73.56 

53.67 

81.52 

106.61 

160.96 

96.73 

89.27 

103.18 

108.17 

104.49 

75.03 

137.28 

168.80 

101.62 

205.84 

337.28 

391.14 

95.5 

98.6 

95.5 

94.2 

106.8 

96.3 

93.2 

90.8 

93.8 

95.6 

95.4 

92.5 

95.6 

97.1 

92.1 

95.1 

95.1 

97.4 

99.1 

102.1 

100.4 

101.1 

100.3 

98.2 

99.6 

103.7 

106.8 

114.7 

118.2 

Feb. 

9,800 

8,329 

b,826 

8,275 

7,Ul6 

7,214 

8,351 

8,937 

11,843 

12,449 

11,359 

11,049 

16,255 

15,274 

14,570 

15,758 

15,390 

16,326 

16,854 

17,451 

15,987 

18,041 

22,105 

22,968 

21,034 

25,U84 

26,752 

27,056 

24,298 

1.56 

2.98 

12.98 

25.62 

27.57 

22.16 

16.01 

19.47 

27.27 

47.77 

42.06 

49.19 

65.41 

65.30 

58.59 

60.94 

88.08 

90.50 

94.72 

123.94 

111.98 

95.54 

113.45 

79.60 

89.99 

139.39 

150.90 

191.33 

137.16 

213.13 

384.76 

Mar. Apr. May June 

1 3. NUMBER OF NEW BUSINESS 

9,743 

6,349 

6,791 

6,078 

6,937 

7,348 

8,634 

9,155 

11,679 

11,591 

11,367 

11,042 

16,548 

15,233 

14,658 

15,670 

15,563 

15,917 

17,131 

17,266 

16,244 

18,538 

22,083 

21,346 

22,883 

26,231 

28,964 

26,458 

24,922 

9,057 

8,396 

6,879 

8,132 

7,082 

7,499 

8,534 

9,276 

11,215 

11,888 

11,507 

10,636 

16,604 

15,280 

15,327 

15,372 

15,305 

16,132 

16,664 

17,057 

16,760 

18,663 

23,262 

21,829 

22,814 

26,630 

28,522 

29,071 

26,506 

(NUMBER) 

8,699 8,748 

8,064 8,210 

7,006 6,879 

8,403 8,394 

6,848 6,759 

7,441 7,700 

8,785 8,605 

9,158 9,436 

11,521 12,072 

12,245 11,999 

11,109 11,739 

11,752 12,032 

16,296 15,204 

15,176 15,630 

15,298 15,431 

15,245 14,947 

15,682 15,536 

16,473 16,282 

16,580 17,017 

16,644 16,577 

17,627 17,799 

18,723 18,839 

23,118 23,439 

21,874 21,796 

23,960 24,481 

26,270 26,175 

28,286 27,999 

27,562 25,785 

26,634 26,231 

July Aug. 

INCORPORATIONS 

9,308 

8,168 

7,057 

7,898 

6,796 

7,683 

8,757 

9,772 

11,655 

11,851 

11,686 

12,504 

15,658 

15,828 

15,492 

15,171 

15,431 

16,550 

16,844 

16,074 

16,300 

19,407 

23,366 

21,614 

24,677 

26,789 

27,477 

27,790 

28,571 

9,244 

7,439 

7,330 

7,684 

6,880 

8,065 

6,515 

9,882 

11,572 

11,707 

11,593 

13,644 

15,813 

15,114 

15,277 

15,056 

16,093 

15,692 

16,901 

16,343 

17,674 

19,947 

22,871 

21,796 

25,012 

26,365 

26,689 

26,495 

28,632 

Sept. 

9,316 

7,483 

7,403 

7,092 

6,952 

8,259 

8,185 

10,085 

11,968 

11,193 

11,318 

13,933 

15,728 

15,112 

15,402 

15,249 

15,689 

16,948 

17,136 

15,764 

17,818 

20,582 

22,594-

22,181 

23,623 

27,168 

26,240 

26,313 

29,000 

1 4. CURRENT LIABILITIES OF BUSINESS FAILURES (§) 

3.88 

4.42 

15.25 

17.48 

37.19 

27.90 

17.65 

29.23 

31.08 

57.28 

41.21 

42.62 

55.83 

71.56 

65.05 

70.19 

126.62 

80.88 

97.70 

111.00 

146.58 

103.47 

119.32 

88.59 

84.12 

120.02 

224.65 

220.66 

252.35 

204.59 

343.35 

1 7. INDEX 

96.5 

98.3 

94.4 

95.0 

106.0 

96.2 

93.1 

90.7 

93.6 

95.7 

96.3 

91.5 

96.2 

95.7 

91.7 

95.4 

95.3 

97.0 

99.3 

101.7 

100.5 

100.8 

101.1 

98.2 

99.7 

103.2 

108.2 

115.6 

117.1 

96.7 

96.7 

94.5 

95.4 

104.9 

95.3 

92.6 

90.5 

94.4 

95.2 

95.8 

91.0 

96.5 

94.9 

92.4 

95.3 

95.6 

96.4 

100.0 

102.6 

99.8 

101.0 

101.1 

98.0 

100.0 

103.0 

109.6 

117.2 

114.8 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLA 

0.98 

3.78 

16.08 

15.30 

31.93 

21.25 

17.06 

29.53 

27.52 

42.51 

35.97 

41.87 

57.10 

83.98 

71.91 

69.19 

86.11 

121.83 

100.76 

112.88 

83.25 

110.14 

103.82 

80.11 

118.76 

131.90 

153.80 

148.47 

119.34 

209.76 

372.08 

2.21 3.20 

3.66 3.01 

17.33 18.98 

13.81 12.16 

24.58 28.16 

22.67 18.07 

23.50 22.77 

21.19 21.22 

32.79 32.38 

38.49 41.61 

34.71 36.67 

59.90 43.01 

52.55 51.45 

56.25 61.44 

50.92 49.20 

73.31 126.45 

80.47 83.83 

91.51 88.49 

118.27 86.15 

93.42 144.50 

133.11 144.61 

96.38 123.58 

93.37 104.64 

91.41 74.66 

92.60 91.92 

147.89 170.50 

249.49 165.84 

190.14 127.90 

167.95 180.21 

375.69 215.50 

357.79 175.92 

OF PRICE PER UNIT OF LAB 

97!3 

98.5 

94.2 

97.1 

103.4 

95.1 

92.5 

90.8 

95.0 

95.6 

94.9 

90.6 

97.2 

94.6 

93.1 

93.9 

96.3 

96.8 

100.4 

101.4 

100.0 

100.8 

99.8 

97.9 

99.8 

103.5 

108.5 

118.3 

117.2 

(1967=100) 

95.9 95.6 

99.9 99.8 

92.9 93.0 

97.5 99.2 

103.1 101.2 

94.1 93.6 

93.3 92.8 

91.1 91.7 

94.8 95.6 

95.4 95.2 

94.8 95.5 

91.6 93.6 

97.4 97.1 

93.7 93.5 

93.1 93.5 

93.9 93.7 

96.9 97.0 

96.7 96.5 

101.0 101.2 

102.0 101.5 

99.6 99.4 

100.1 100.0 

99.3 99.3 

98.0 97.4 

99.9 100.2 

103.0 103.1 

110.2 110.9 

119.9 120.5 

117.4 119.0 

RS) 

3.66 

3.43 

20.70 

13.88 

21.80 

19.54 

21.09 

22.79 

39.83 

32.23 

32.54 

48.69 

44.30 

65.38 

51.20 

61.73 

69.17 

91.57 

120.51 

125.64 

121.48 

69.88 

72.55 

90.27 

112.73 

251.92 

147.03 

204.62 

206.19 

153.40 

242.03 

OR COST, 

95.9 

98.6 

92.3 

101.5 

98.7 

94.8 

93.3 

91.7 

95.2 

91.6 

96.0 

93.6 

95.6 

94.0 

94.2 

94.2 

96.0 

96.5 

101.8 

101.6 

98.6 

1 99.4 

| 99.2 

1 97.5 

100.8 

103.6 

109.8 

122.5 

120.5 

1.17 

3.80 

14.90 

21.44 

31.18 

18.45 

26.42 

16.32 

28.53 

32.58 

36.03 

55.04 

43.51 

50.76 

54.50 

97.59 

102.69 

146.83 

65.23 

95.18 

135.04 

178.09 

108.90 

65.77 

62.83 

169.59 

155.56 

253.62 

190.15 

232.68 

222.44 

1.66 

4.88 

10.03 

20.70 

20.60 

15.25 

26.64 

20.14 

33.82 

36.38 

33.12 

39.31 

45.42 

48.10 

54.74 

80.60 

116.66 

96.16 

85.92 

114.56 

104.98 

129.16 

93.94 

58.65 

73.70 

232.94 

115.85 

113.54 

189.47 

217.01 

205.53 

MANUFACTURING 

96.3 

97.7 

93.2 

103.5 

96.8 

94.2 

93.5 

91.4 

95.3 

94.4 

95.8 

94.2 

94.1 

94.1 

94.8 

94.3 

96.5 

96.5 

101.9 

101.3 

98.9 

99.3 

99.0 

97.5 

100.0 

104.3 

112.7 

124.5 

120.4 

96.0 

97.3 

93.6 

103.8 

96.6 

94.0 

93.5 

91.8 

95.5 

95.1 

96.0 

93.9 

93.8 

93.7 

95.3 

95.1 

96.4 

96.2 

101.9 

101.5 

99.9 

99.2 

99.1 

97.6 

101.5 

104.5 

111.0 

124.4 

121.5 

Oct. 

9,806 

7,349 

7,532 

7,176 

6,995 

8,341 

8,698 

10,730 

11,668 

11,925 

11,251 

13,669 

15,383 

15,035 

16,035 

14,892 

16,275 

16,728 

16,994 

16,233 

17,654 

21,093 

24,263 

21,712 

25,356 

27,529 

26,809 

25,404 

29,469 

3.11 

6.40 

21.32 

25.11 

23.89 

16.65 

29.74 

35.05 

37.08 

29.00 

34.78 

50.00 

47.43 

47.27 

50.38 

81.51 

70.26 

119.09 

91.83 

93.77 

82.07 

108.05 

81.63 

65.38 

116.44 

144.77 

144.70 

152.97 

185.66 

306.83 

1295.39 

97.2 

97.5 

93.4 

102.3 

97.5 

93.9 

92.6 

91.6 

96.5 

95.1 

95.0 

95.1 

1 93.3 

| 93.7 

j 95.3 

94.6 

97.0 

96.6 

101.7 

101.7 

100.6 

98.6 

99.4 

98.6 

102.0 

104.8 

110.7 

124.9 

122.2 

Nov. 

9,453 

7,241 

7,b59 

7,059 

7,119 

8,265 

8,556 

11,212 

11,761 

11,186 

10,788 

14,599 

15,695 

14,264 

16,149 

14,951 

15,759 

16,804 

17,606 

16,206 

17,958 

20,890 

23,125 

22,217 

25,510 

26,234 

26,718 

25,555 

28,799 

1.27 

9.51 

16.34 

24.42 

22.80 

18.86 

17.57 

18.76 

36.80 

35.07 

42.78 

39.89 

52.90 

56.72 

53.21 

84.46 

119.21 

98.84 

262.11 

119.32 

71.72 

106.73 

69.98 

58.65 

127.14 

119.84 

129.00 

208.58 

218.67 

344.66 

252.87 

97.9 

95.2 

94.5 

101.5 

97.0 

94.4 

92.2 

91.8 

95.9 

95.8 

93.8 

95.7 

93.1 

92.8 

95.4 

95.0 

96.8 

98.1 

101.4 

100.5 

101.1 

99.7 

99.9 

99.1 

102.7 

105.6 

111.2 

122.7 

123.2 

Dec. 

9,690 

7,054 

7,78b 

7,007 

7,181 

8,096 

8,696 

11,604 

11,560 

11,139 

10,791 

15,577 

15,959 

14,097 

15,881 

14,985 

15,867 

17,021 

17,625 

16,583 

18,238 

20,619 

22,404 

22,272 

25,634 

27,699 

24,881 

25,003 

29,704 

1.65 

17.10 

25.50 

31.73 

19.25 

21.04 

19.40 

23.40 

43.75 

40.10 

41.64 

50.28 

45.321 

57.07 

59.56 

78.97 

65.49 

81.28 

68.4.3 

98.28 

97.58 

161.48 

195.45 

83.41 

96.85 

121.72 

111.32 

86.79 

245.62 

242.59 

136.88 

98.2 

96.2 

94.1 

104.4 

96.6 

93.4 

91.1 

92.8 

96.7 

95.6 

93.3 

95.2 

95.9 

92.3 

96.0 

94.5 

95.8 

98.0 

102.1 

100.8 

100.9 

99.2 

99.4 

99.7 

102.5 

107.6 

113.1 

118.7 

123.8 

Quarterly j 

1 Q 

29,465 

26,058 

20,629 

24,183 

21,168 

21,642 

25,288 

26,730 

35,424 

35,660 

33,976 

33,133 

49,149 

47,068 

42,835 

47,027 

45,877 

48,236 

50,769 

52,804 

48,934 

54,640 

65,552 

66,510 

66,480 

76,585 

85,512 

80,025 

73,626 

11.32 

11.77 

43.42 

56.06 

83.92 

76.50 

55.34 

74.91 

81.66 

134.64 

121.14 

134.70 

175.30 

201.30 

197.20 

184.80 

296.22 

277.99 

353.38 

331.67 

347.83 

302.19 

340.94 

272.68 

249.14 

396.69 

| 544.35 

513.61 

[ 595.35 

[ 755.00 

1119.25 

96\2 

97.9 

94.8 

94.9 

105.9 

95.9 

93.0 

90.7 

93.9 

95.5 

95.8 

91.7 

96.1 

95.9 

92.1 

95.3 

95.3 

96.9 

99.5 

102.1 

100.2 

101.0 

100.8 

98.1 

99.8 

103.3 

108.2 

115.8 

116.7 

| 

II Q III Q IV Q 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

26,504 

24,671 

20,765 

24,929 

20,689 

22,641 

25,924 

27,870 

34,808 

36,131 

34,355 

34,420 

48,104 

46,086 

46,056 

45,564 

46,523 

48,887 

50,261 

50,278 

52,186 

56,225 

69,819 

65,499 

71,255 

79,075 

84,807 

82,418 

79,371 

27,868 

23,090 

21,789 

22,674 

20,628 

24,006 

25,457 

29,739 

35,194 

34,751 

34,597 

40,081 

47,199 

46,054 

46,171 

45,476 

47,213 

49,190 

50,881 

48,181 

51,792 

59,936 

68,831 

65,591 

73,312 

80,322 

80,406 

80,598 

86,203 

28,949 

21,644 

22,978 

21,242 

21,294 

24,702 

25,949 

33,546 

34,990 

34,249 

32,830 

43,845 

47,037 

43,396 

48,065 

44,828 

47,901 

50,553 

52,225j 

49,022 

53,850 

62,602 

69,792 

66,201 

76,500 

81,462 

78,408 

75,962 

87,972 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

6.39 

10.45 

52.39 

41.27 

84.67 

61.99 

63.33 

71.94 

92.69 

122.61 

107.35 

144.78 

161.10 

201.67 

172.03 

268.95 

250.41 

301.83 

305.18 

350.80 

360.97 

330.10 

301.83 

246.18 

303.28 

450.29 

569.13 

466.51 

467.50 

800.95 

905.79 

6.49 

12.11 

45.63 

56.02 

73.58 

53.24 

74.15 

59.25 

102.18 

101.19 

101.69 

143.04 

133.23 

164.24 

160.44 

239.92 

288.52 

334.56 

271.66 

335.38 

361.50 

377.13 

275.39 

214.69 

249.26 

654.45 

418.44 

571.78 

585.81 

603.09 

670.00 

AVERAGE FOR 

96*. 3 

99.4 

93.4 

97.9 

102.6 

94.3 

92.9 

91.2 

95.1 

95.4 

95.1 

91.9 

97.2 

93.9 

93.2 

93.8 

96.7 

96.7 

100.9 

101.6 

99.7 

100.3 

99.5 

97.8 

100.0 

103.2 

109.9 

119.6 

117.9 

96.1 

97.9 

93.0 

102.9 

97.4 

94.3 

93.4 

91.6 

95.3 

93.7 

95.9 

93.9 

94.5 

93.9 

94.8 

94.5 

96.3 

96.4 

101.9 

101.5 

99.1 

99.3 

99.1 

97.5 

100.8 

104.1 

111.2 

123.8 

120.8 

6.03 

33.01 

63.16 

81.26 

65.94 

56.55 

66.71 

77.21 

117.63 

104.17, 

119.20 

140.17 

145.65 

161.06 

163.151 

244.94 

254.96 

299.21 

422.37 

311.37 

251.37 

376.26 

347.06 

207.44 

340.43 

386.33 

385.02 

448.34 

649.95 

894.08 

1685.14 

PERIOD 

97.8 

96.3 

94.0 

102.7 

97.0 

93.9 

92.0 

92.1 

96.4 

95.5 

94.0 

95.3 

94.1 

92.9 

95.6 

94.7 

96.5 

97.6 

101.7 

101.0 

100.9 

99.2 

99.6 

99.1 

102.4 

106.0 

111.7 

122.1 

123.1 

Annual 

112,786 

95,463 

86,161 

93,029 

83,779 

92,991 

102,619 

117,885 

140,415 

140,790 

135,758 

151,479 

191,489 

182,604 

183,127 

182,895 

187,514 

196,866 

204,136 

200,285 

206,762 

233,403 

273,994 

263,801 

287,547 

317,444 

329,133 

319,003 

327,172 

30.23 

67.34 

204.60 

234.61 

308.11 

248.28 

259.53 

283.31 

394.16 

462.61 

449.38 

562.69 

615.28 

728.27 

692.82 

938.61 

1090.11 

1213.59 

1352.59 

1329.22 

1321.67 

1385.68 

1265.22 

940.99 

1142.11 

1887.76 

1916.94 

2000.24 

2298.61 

3053.12 

4380.18 

96.6 

97.9 

93.8 

99.6 

100.7 

94.6 

92.8 

91.4 

95.2 

95.0 

95.2 

93.2 

95.5 

94.2 

93.9 

94.6 

96.2 

96.9 

101.0 

101.6 

100.0 

99.9 

99.7 

98.1 

1 100.7 

104.2 

110.2 

1 120.3 

119.6 

82 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . J 

Monthly 

Jan. 

13.4 9 

18.0 2 

15.2 1 

14.8 3 

15.3 6 

16.8 8 

21.2 1 

24.1 9 

26.1 8 

25.4 6 

35.6 0 

44.1 5 

45.4 3 

41.1 2 

55.6 2 

! 58.0 3 

59.7 2 

69.0 7 

65.0 6 

76.4 5 

86.1 2 

93.3 2 

84.4 5 

95.0 4 

102.0 4 

90.3 1 

93.4 9 

103.3 0 

118.4 2 

96.1 1 

72.5 6 

3.6 6 

2.9 4 

3.6 3 

6.7 9 

4.8 8 

5.5 6 

4.1 2 

4.6 8 

5.8 5 

5.8 9 

4.3 4 

4.8 0 

5.0 0 

5.3 7 

5.5 5 

5.7 9 

7.1 2 

7.3 4 

8.5 7 

7.4 5 

8.2 9 

10.6 5 

10.5 8 

8.5 6 

9.3 5 

11.3 1 

13.0 6 

9.8 0 

21 

3 * 2 

2 . 9 

1 . 9 

2 . 5 

3 . 0 

2 . 1 

2 . 8 

2 . 7 

2 . 9 

3 . 5 

3 . 9 

3 . 5 

3 . 4 

3 . 7 

3 . 3 

2 . 8 

3 . 0 

3 . 8 

3 . 6 

2 . 4 

Feb. 

13.9 4 

18.0 7 

15.8 0 

14.1 0 

14.7 7 

17.2 1 

22.0 0 

23.7 5 

25.8 6 

26.0 2 

36.7 9 

44.4 3 

43.4 7 

41.2 6 

54.7 7 

55.7 8 

62.1 7 

70.2 2 

65.9 2 

77.3 9 

86.7 5 

92.6 9 

87.3 6 

90.7 5 

101.4 6 

87.1 6 

97.1 1 

105.2 4 

114.1 6 

93.4 5 

80.1 0 

Mar. Apr. May June 

1 9 . INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 

13.9 3 

17.5 3 

15.1 6 

14.3 0 

14:9 1 

17.3 5 

21.6 3 

23.8 1 

25.9 9 

26.5 7 

36.5 0 

47.4 9 

44.0 3 

42.1 1 

56.1 5 

55.0 2 

64.1 2 

70.2 9 

65.6 7 

78.8 0 

86.8 3 

88.8 8 

89.4 2 

89.0 9 

99.3 0 

88.6 5 

99.6 0 

107.6 9 

112.4 2 

97.4 4 

83.7 8 

2 0 . CONTRACTS 

4*1 9 

3.1 9 

3.6 4 

6.9 2 

4.9 7 

5.6 1 

4.2 0 

5.0 8 

5.6 5 

5.7 0 

4.1 8 

4.9 5 

5.1 2 

5.2 2 

6.0 5 

5.9 7 

6.4 1 

7.3 9 

9.2 2 

7.9 9 

9.5 1 

10.9 4 

10.1 3 

9.3 6 

9.6 2 

11.8 6 

13.1 8 

9.1 1 

4.0 2 

3.1 5 

3.9 2 

6.2 8 

5.0 4 

5.1 1 

3.5 7 

5.8 5 

5.6 7 

5.6 2 

4.1 7 

5.7 9 

4.9 8 

4.9 6 

5.6 0 

5.9 3 

6.6 9 

7.8 1 

8.9 8 

8.1 5 

11.0 3 

10.1 3 

9.5 4 

9.5 3 

10.3 7 

12.0 0 

13.3 2 

8.8 0 

. AVERAGE WEEKLY 

3*6 

2 . 7 

1 . 9 

2 . 6 

2 . 8 

2 . 1 

2 . 7 

2 . 7 

2 . 9 

3 . 6 

4 . 1 

3 . 4 

3 . 5 

3 . 5 

3 . 2 

2 . 8 

3 . 2 

4 . 0 

3 . 4 

2 . 4 

2 . 8 

2 . 6 

1 . 7 

2 . 8 

2 . 7 

2 . 1 

2 . 8 

2 . 8 

3 . 0 

3 . 7 

4 . 1 

3 . 3 

3 . 5 

3 . 7 

3 . 2 

2 . 8 

3 . 3 

3 . 9 

3 . 5 

2 . 3 | 

14.2 8 

18.6 6 

14.6 0 

15.4 0 

14.8 9 

17.8 4 

21.9 2 

23.7 4 

24.7 1 

27.6 3 

37.7 6 

48.0 5 

45.0 5 

42.3 4 

57.1 0 

! 55.7 3 

65.8 3 

68.0 5 

68.7 6 

79.9 4 

87.9 7 

91.6 0 

90.9 6 

95.6 7 

101.2 6 

85.9 5 

103.0 4 

108.8 1 

110.2 7 

92.4 6 

84.7 2 

July Aug. 

COMMON STOCKS © 

(1941-43=10 ) 

14.8 2 

18.7 0 

14.3 4 

16.1 5 

14.7 8 

18.4 4 

21.9 3 

23.7 3 

24.8 4 

28.7 3 

37.6 0 

46.5 4 

46.7 8 

43.7 0 

57.9 6 

55.2 2 

66.5 0 

62.9 9 

70.1 4 

80.7 2 

89.2 8 

86.7 8 

92.5 9 

97.8 7 

104.6 2 

76.0 6 

101.6 4 

107.6 5 

107.2 2 

89.6 7 

90.1 0 

15.0 9 

18.5 8 

14.8 4 

16.8 2 

13.9 7 

18.7 4 

21.5 5 

24.3 8 

23.9 5 

28.9 6 

39.7 8 

46.2 7 

47.5 5 

44.7 5 

57.4 6 

57.2 6 

65.6 2 

55.6 3 

70.1 1 

80.2 4 

85.0 4 

86.0 6 

91.4 3 

100.5 3 

99.1 4 

75.5 9 

99.7 2 

108.0 1 

104.7 5 

89.7 9 

92.4 0 

AND ORDERS FOR PLANT AND 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLAR 

4*4 5 

2.7 1 

3.9 3 

6.2 9 

4.9 7 

5.5 3 

3.6 7 

5.4 2 

5.8 3 

5.0 2 

4.2 1 

5.2 0 

5.3 8 

5.0 3 

5.8 8 

6.0 7 

6.7 3 

7.8 4 

9.3 2 

7.9 8 

9.3 9 

11.3 9 

9.1 2 

9.1 6 

10.2 0 

12.0 2 

12.5 0 

9.7 8 

OVERTIME 

2*8 

2 . 5 

1 . 7 

2 . 8 

2 . 4 

2 . 2 

2 . 8 

2 . 5 

3 . 0 

3 . 2 

4 . 1 

3 . 3 

3 . 1 

3 . 7 

3 . 0 

2 . 8 

3 . 6 

4 . 2 

2 . 9 

2 . 4 

3.7 9 

2.8 1 

4.8 6 

8.3 7 

4.6 2 

5.2 7 

3.7 4 

5.1 9 

6.0 5 

5.2 2 

4.2 5 

5.3 4 

5.3 8 

4.9 5 

5.6 3 

6.6 6 

7.2 7 

7.7 3 

9.1 7 

8.2 1 

8.7 6 

10.7 1 

9.0 2 

9.0 5 

11.0 0 

12.6 4 

13.3 2 

10.2 5 

4.3 9 

3.0 7 

4.6 8 

5.8 0 

5.2 1 

4.1 0 

3.8 4 

5.4 9 

6.1 1 

4.9 6 

4.4 6 

5.4 4 

5.2 2 

5.2 3 

5.5 2 

6.0 7 

7.4 7 

7.5 8 

8.9 5 

8.5 3 

8.8 1 

10.1 3 

8.6 7 

9.9 3 

9.9 2 

12.5 6 

12.0 6 

10.0 6 

HOURS OF PRODUC 

(HOURS) 

2*7 

2 . 3 

1 . 8 

2 . 9 

2 . 6 

2 . 2 

2 . 8 

2 . 8 

3 . 0 

3 . 5 

4 . 1 

3 . 3 

3 . 7 

3 . 7 

3 . 0 

2 . 9 

3 . 4 

3 . 9 

3 . 4 

2 . 3 

2 . 7 

2 . 3 

1 . 9 

2 . 9 

2 . 5 

2 . 3 

2 . 8 

2 . 9 

3 . 1 

3 . 5 

3 . 9 

3 . 2 

3 . 6 

3 . 6 

3 . 0 

3 . 0 

3 . 4 

3 . 8 

3 . 4 

2 . 5 

14.7 8 

18.0 5 

15.7 7 

16.4 2 

14.7 6 

17.3 8 

21.9 3 

25.0 8 

24.2 9 

30.1 3 

42.6 9 

48.7 8 

48.5 1 

45.9 8 

59.7 4 

55.8 4 

65.4 4 

56.9 7 

69.0 7 

83.2 2 

84.9 1 

85.8 4 

93.0 1 

100.3 0 

94.7 1 

75.7 2 

99.0 0 

107.2 1 

105.8 3 

82.8 2 

92.4 9 

EQUIPMENT 

S) 

3*9 3 

2.8 3 

5.6 2 

5.5 4 

5.3 6 

5.0 0 

4.0 3 

5.4 3 

5.7 9 

4.8 4 

4.3 0 

5.5 3 

5.2 4 

5.3 4 

5.5 9 

6.0 2 

7.0 0 

7.8 3 

9.5 4 

8.4 3 

10.0 2 

10.0 6 

9.0 5 

8.4 5 

10.7 2 

12.7 2 

13.6 9 

9.5 7 

14.8 3 

17.7 0 

15.4 6 

15.9 4 

15.2 9 

18.4 3 

22.8 9 

25.1 8 

24.3 9 

30.7 3 

42.4 3 

48.4 9 

45.8 4 

47.7 0 

59.4 0 

56.5 1 

67.7 9 

58.5 2 

70.9 8 

82.0 0 

86.4 9 

80.6 5 

94.4 9 

98.1 1 

94.1 8 

77.9 2 

97.2 4 

111.0 1 

103.8 0 

76.0 3 

85.7 1 

IN 1972 

3.6 8 

3.0 7 

6.9 3 

5.3 3 

4.8 1 

4.1 8 

4.0 4 

5.7 1 

5.7 2 

4.9 3 

4.9 0 

4.9 3 

5.2 3 

5.6 3 

5.6 0 

•6.1 9 

7.0 7 

7.5 4 

8.9 1 

8.7 0 

10.1 7 

10.0 3 

8.5 7 

9.3 3 

9.8 9 

12.6 8 

12.3 6 

10.4 7 

Sept. 

15.8 4 

15.0 9 

15.0 6 

15.7 6 

15.4 9 

19.0 8 

23.4 8 

24.7 8 

23.2 7 

31.4 5 

44.3 4 

46.8 4 

43.9 8 

48.9 6 

57.0 5 

54.8 1 

67.2 6 

58.0 0 

72.8 5 

8314 1 

89.3 8 

77.8 1 

95.8 1 

101.3 4 

94.5 1 

82.5 8 

99.4 0 

109.3 9 

105.6 1 

68.1 2 

84.6 7 

DOLLARS 

3!4i 

3.3 8 

6.4 2 

4.6 1 

6.3 9 

4.7 7 

4.3 5 

5.9 4 

5.5 1 

4.4 4 

4.9 2 

5.5 7 

5.2 9 

5.2 6 

5.5 7 

6.3 6 

7.1 6 

8.1 5 

9.7 0 

8.4 6 

9.2 6 

11.1 7 

8.6 3 

9.4 7 

11.3 4 

12.5 9 

12.3 9 

9.2 3 

riON WORKERS, MANUFACTURI 

2 . 7 

2 . 3 

1 . 9 

2 . 8 

2 . 4 

2 . 5 

2 . 8 

2 . 9 

3 . 0 

3 . 5 

4 . 0 

3 . 3 

3 . 6 

3 . 6 

3 . 0 

2 . 9 

3 . 4 

3 . 8 

3 . 4 

2 . 6 

2 . 5 

2 . 2 

2 . 1 

2 . 9 

2 . 4 

2 . 5 

2 . 7 

2 . 8 

3 . 2 

3 . 5 

3 . 9 

3 . 3 

3 . 5 

3 . 6 

2 . 9 

2 . 9 

3 . 5 

3 . 6 

3 . 3 

2 . 7 

2 . 7 

2 . 2 

2 . 2 

2 . 7 

2 . 3 

2 . 6 

2 . 8 

2 . 9 

3 . 2 

3 . 5 

3 . 8 

3 . 4 

3 . 7 

3 . 7 

2 . 8 

2 . 8 

3 . 5 

3 . 8 

3 . 2 

2 . 8 

Oct. 

16.5 0 

14.7 5 

15.4 5 

16.1 9 

15.8 9 

19.8 7 

23.3 6 

24.2 6 

23.9 7 

32.1 8 

42.1 1 

46.2 4 

41.2 4 

50.9 5 

57.0 0 

53.7 3 

68.0 0 

56.1 7 

73.0 3 

84.8 5 

91.3 9 

77.1 3 

95.6 6 

103.7 6 

95.5 2 

84.3 7 

97.2 9 

109.5 6 

109.8 4 

69.4 4 

88.5 7 

3.6 6 

3.2 5 

5.7 0 

5.1 4 

4.8 9 

5.0 3 

4.5 6 

5.7 0 

5.4 9 

4.5 2 

4.7 6 

5.3 7 

5.1 3 

5.3 8 

5.6 8 

6.4 8 

7.2 2 

8.1 6 

8.8 2 

8.5 7 

11.0 4 

10.2 3 

7.7 8 

9.0 6 

10.8 7 

13.9 2 

11.5 3 

9.0 4 

KG 

2 * 8 

2 . 1 

2 . 2 

2 . 6 

2 . 4 

2 . 7 

2 . 7 

2 . 9 

3 . 2 

3 . 7 

3 . 9 

3 . 3 

3 . 7 

3 . 5 

2 . 8 

2 . 9 

3 . 6 

3 . 7 

3 . 1 

2 . 8 

Nov. 

17.0 4 

14.6 9 

15.2 7 

15.2 9 

16.1 1 

19.8 3 

22.7 1 

25.0 3 

24.5 0 

33.4 4 

44.9 5 

45.7 6 

40.3 5 

52.5 0 

57.2 3 

55.4 7 

71.0 8 

60.0 4 

72.6 2 

85.4 4 

92.1 5 

80.9 9 

92.6 6 

105.4 0 

96.2 1 

84.2 8 

92.7 8 

115.0 5 

102.0 3 

71.7 4 

90.0 7 

3.6 0 

3.6 3 

5.6 6 

5.1 4 

4.5 9 

4.3 7 

4.2 3 

6.1 0 

6.1 6 

4.5 1 

4.6 8 

5.0 5 

4.9 3 

5.7 1 

6.1 1 

6.8 3 

7.6 8 

8.0 5 

8.6 9 

8.5 8 

9.4 8 

9.8 9 

8.6 9 

9.6 3 

11.1 6 

13.8 5 

10.1 4 

9.0 2 

2*8 

2 . 1 

2 . 4 

2 . 5 

2 . 1 

2 . 8 

2 . 8 

2 . 9 

3 . 2 

3 . 8 

3 . 8 

3 . 3 

3 . 8 

3 . 5 

2 . 7 

2 . 9 

3 . 7 

3 . 9 

2 . 8 

2 . 9 

Dec. 

17.3 3 

15.1 3 

15.0 3 

15.1 9 

16.5 4 

19.7 5 

23.4 1 

26.0 4 

24.8 3 

34.9 7 

45.3 7 

46.4 4 

40.3 3 

53.4 9 

59.0 6 

56.8 0 

71.7 4 

62.6 4 

74.1 7 

83.9 6 

91.7 3 

81.3 3 

95.3 0 

106.4 8 

91.1 1 

90.0 5 

99.1 7 

117.5 0 

94.7 8 

67.0 7 

88.7 0 

3.* 59 

3.3 2 

6.0 4 

5.4 9 

5.4 7 

4.0 0 

4.4 9 

6.0 7 

5.8 0 

4.2 8 

4.5 2 

5.3 4 

5.3 7 

5.2 6 

6.2 4 

6.9 1 

7.7 9 

8.5 9 

8.6 6 

8.7 9 

10.3 8 

10.1 7 

9.5 2 

9.9 2 

11.4 8 

13.2 7 

11.0 6 

8.7 8 

2 * 8 

1 . 9 

2 . 5 

2 . 5 

2 . 0 

2 . 8 

2 . 8 

3 . 0 

3 . 4 

3 . 8 

3 . 5 

3 . 4 

3 . 7 

3 . 5 

2 . 7 

3 . 0 

3 . 7 

3 . 7 

2 . 7 

3 . 0 

1 Quarterly 

1 Q 

13.7 9 

17.8 7 

15.3 9 

14.4 1 

15.0 1 

17.1 5 

21.6 1 

23.9 2 

26.0 1 

26.0 2 

36.3 0 

45.3 6 

44.3 1 

41.5 0 

55.5 1 

56.2 8 

62.0 0 

69.8 6 

65.5 5 

77.5 5 

86.5 7 

91.6 3 

87.0 8 

91.6 3 

100.9 3 

88.7 1 

96.7 3 

105.4 1 

115.0 0 

95.6 7 

78.8 1 

11.* 87 

! 9.2 8 

11.1 9 

19.9 9 

14.8 9 

16.2 8 

11.8 9 

15.6 1 

17.1 7 

17.2 1 

12.6 9 

15.5 4 

15.1 0 

15.5 5 

17.2 0 

17.6 9 

20.2 2 

22.5 4 

26.7 7 

23.5 9 

28.8 3 

31.7 2 

30.2 5 

27.4 5 

29.3 4 

35.1 7 

39.5 6 

27.7 1 

3*6 

2 . 7 

1 . 8 

2 . 6 

2 . 8 

2 . 1 

2 . 8 

2 . 7 

2 . 9 

3 . 6 

4 . 0 

3 . 4 

3 . 5 

3 . 6 

3 . 2 

2 . 8 

3 . 2 

3 . 9 

3 . 5 

2 . 4 

II Q III Q IV Q 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

14.7 3 

18.6 5 

14.5 9 

16.1 2 

14.5 5 

18.3 4 

21.8 0 

23.9 5 

24.5 0 

28.4 4 

38.3 8 

46.9 5 

46.4 6 

43.6 0 

57.5 1 

56.0 7 

65.9 8 

62.2 2 

69.6 7 

80.3 0 

87.4 3 

88.1 5 

91.6 6 

98.0 2 

101.6 7 

79.2 0 

101.4 7 

108.1 6 

107.4 1 

90.6 4 

89.0 7 

15.1 5 

16.9 5 

15.4 3 

16.0 4 

15.1 8 

18.3 0 

22.7 7 

25.0 1 

23.9 8 

30.7 7 

43.1 5 

48.0 4 

46.1 1 

47.5 5 

58.7 3 

55.7 2 

66.8 3 

57.8 3 

70.9 7 

82.8 8 

86.9 3 

81.4 3 

94.4 4 

99.9 2 

94.4 7 

78.7 4 

98.5 5 

109.2 0 

105.0 8 

75.6 6 

87.6 2 

16.9 6 

14.8 6 

15.2 5 

15.5 6 

16.1 8 

19.8 2 

23.1 6 

25.1 1 

24.4 3 

33.5 3 

44.1 4 

46.1 5 

40.6 4 

52.3 1 

57.7 6 

55.3 3 

70.2 7 

59.6 2 

73.2 7 

84.7 5 

91.7 6 

79.8 2 

94.5 4 

105.2 1 

94.2 8 

86.2 3 

96.4 1 

114.0 4 

102.2 2 

69.4 2 

89.1 1 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

12*6 3 

8.5 9 

13.4 7 

20.4 6 

14.8 0 

14.9 0 

11.2 5 

16.1 0 

17.9 9 

15.2 0 

12.9 2 

15.9 8 

15.9 8 

15.2 1 

17.0 3 

18.8 0 

21.4 7 

23.1 5 

27.4 4 

24.7 2 

26.9 6 

32.2 3 

26.8 1 

28.1 4 

31.1 2 

37.2 2 

37.8 8 

30.0 9 

11.2 2 

9.2 8 

18.9 7 

15.4 8 

16.5 6 

13.9 5 

12.4 2 

17.0 8 

17.0 2 

14.2 1 

14.1 2 

16.0 3 

15.7 6 

16.2 3 

16.7 6 

18.5 7 

21.2 3 

23.5 2 

28.1 5 

25.5 9 

29.4 5 

31.2 6 

26.2 5 

27.2 5 

31.9 5 

37.9 9 

38.4 4 

29.2 7 

10.8 5 

10.2 0 1 

17.4 0 

15.7 7 

14.9 5 

13.4 0 

13.2 8 

17.8 7 

17.4 5 

13.3 1 

13.9 6 

15.7 6 

15.4 3 

16.3 5 

18.0 3 

20.2 2 

22.6 9 

24.8 0 

26.1 7 

25.9 4 

30.9 0 

30.2 9 

25.9 9 

28.6 1 

33.5 1 

41.0 4 

32.7 3 

26.8 4 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

2*7 

2 . 4 

1 . 8 

2 . 9 

2 . 5 

2 . 2 

2 . 8 

2 . 7 

3 . 0 

3 . 4 

4 . 0 

3 . 3 

3 . 5 

3 . 7 

3 . 0 

2 . 9 

3 . 5 

4 . 0 

3 . 2 

2 . 4 

2 . 6 

2 . 2 

2 . 1 

2 . 8 

2 . 4 

2 . 5 

2 . 8 

2 . 9 

3 . 1 

3 . 5 

3 . 9 

3 . 3 

3 . 6 

3 . 6 

2 . 9 

2 . 9 

3 . 5 

3 . 7 

3 . 3 

2 . 7 

2.8 1 

2.0 1 

2.4 1 

2 . 5 

2 . 2 

2.8 1 

2.8 1 

2.9 1 

3.3 1 

3.8 1 

3.7 1 

3.3 1 

3.7 1 

3.5 1 

2.7 1 

2.9 1 

3.7 1 

3.8 I 

2.9 1 

2.9 1 

Annual 

15.1 6 

17.0 8 

15.1 7 

15.5 3 

15.2 3 

l 18.4 0 

22.3 4 

24.5 0 

24.7 3 

29.6 9 

40.4 9 

46.6 2 

44.3 8 

46.2 4 

57.3 8 

55.8 5 

66.2 7 

62.3 8 

69.8 6 

81.3 7 

88.1 7 

85.2 6 

91.9 3 

93.6 9 

97.8 4 

83.2 2 

98.2 9 

109.2 0 

107.4 3 

82.8 4 

86.1 6 

46.5 7 

37.3 5 

61.0 3 

71.7 0 

61.2 0 

58.5 3 

48.8 4 

66.6 6 

69.6 3 

59.9 3 

53.6 9 

63.3 1 

62.2 7 

63.3 4 

69.0 2 

75.2 8 

85.6 1 

94.0 1 

108.5 3 

99.8 4 

116.1 4 

125.5 0 

109.3 0 

111.4 5 

125.9 2 

151.4 2 

148.6 1 

113.9 1 

2*8 

2 . 3 

2 . 0 

2 . 7 

2 . 4 

2 . 4 

2 . 8 

2 . 8 

3 . 1 

3 . 6 

3 . 9 

3 . 4 

3 . 6 

3 . 6 

3 . 0 

2 . 9 

3 . 5 

3 . 8 

3 . 2 

2 . 6 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

194a.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

I960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

2 4 . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1946.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

112. 4 

129. 1 

116. 6 

94. 1 

173. 0 

130. 3 

102. 2 

91. 6 

101. 7 

112. 2 

109. 0 

92. 8 

99. 2 

105. 3 

96. 9 

102. 5 

95. 1 

98. 1 

110. 2 

120. 0 

106. 4 

99. 4 

103. 0 

118. 9 

105. 9 

110. 7 

139. 3 

215. 9 

180. 1 

VALUE OF 

U 2 8 

1.1 3 

1.3 2 

3.0 6 

2.1 8 

2.5 7 

1.7 8 

2.0 9 

2.7 2 

2.9 6 

2.2 8 

2.6 2 

2.7 3 

2.7 4 

3.0 6 

3.2 1 

3.9 4 

4.1 3 

4.7 9 

4.4 3 

5.0 6 

7.0 0 

7.6 0 

6.8 0 

7.7 8 

9.6 7 

12.4 4 

11.6 2 

Feb. 

116. 7 

124. 2 

110. 3 

93. 2 

174. 3 

123. 3 

101. 5 

91. 0 

103. 3 

110. 4 

105. 6 

93. 0 

99. 1 

103. 9 

98. 9 

100. 2 

94. 7 

98. 1 

110. 3 

122. 4 

104. 8 

99. 1 

105. 9 

119. 5 

107. 2 

113. 0 

147. 5 

232. 0 

181. 1 

Mar. Apr. 

2 3 . INDEX 

122^5 

119. 2 

101. 8 

92. 9 

169. 4 

118. 4 

102. 6 

92. 3 

101. 4 

110. 7 

105. 3 

92. 2 

100. 7 

102. 0 

102. 7 

100. 0 

94. 0 

98. 5 

112. 7 

123. 0 

102. 1 

99. 7 

106. 5 

118. 7 

107. 8 

117. 2 

155. 3 

237. 2 

182. 3 

MANUFACTURERS' N 

1 M 3 

1.2 2 

1.4 2 

3.0 9 

2.2 5 

2.4 3 

1.8 6 

2.2 9 

2.5 5 

2.9 6 

2.1 6 

2.7 0 

2.8 3 

2.7 6 

3.2 7 

3.2 9 

3.5 2 

4.0 6 

5.2 5 

4.6 9 

6.9 3 

8.1 9 

7.4 7 

7.4 1 

8.3 6 

10.1 6 

12.5 7 

10.5 9 

1.4 5 

1.2 1 

1.4 3 

2.9 2 

2.3 0 

2.2 9 

1.5 6 

2.6 2 

2.6 8 

2.8 3 

2.2 1 

3.0 6 

2.7 8 

2.7 6 

2.9 2 

3.3 4 

3.7 7 

4.4 0 

5.1 7 

4.7 3 

8.1 8 

7.6 1 

7.1 6 

7.5 7 

8.7 1 

10.6 8 

13.0 1 

10.1 5 

2 5 . CHANGE IN MAN 

... 

-o!3 3 

-0.9 9 

0.5 8 

5.4 1 

0.5 9 

1.7 3 

-2.4 6 

0.7 8 

1.3 1 

-0.2 5 

-2.3 9 

0.7 5 

-1.5 1 

-0.3 5 

0.3 5 

0.8 5 

1.2 4 

0.8 4 

1.8 3 

- P . 10 

0.0 4 

0 . 0 

-1.3 7 

0.6 5 

0.1 4 

2.5 1 

3.8 0 

-2.9 0 

-0.1 6 

-0.3 0 

-0.8 5 

0.3 6 

3.7 2 

-0.0 1 

0.4 2 

-1.6 9 

0.6 2 

0.2 3 

-0.0 2 

-0.8 7 

1.1 8 

-1.0 5 

0.0 8 

0.4 9 

1.0 7 

0.6 2 

0.9 3 

1.6 1 

0.0 9 

0.2 0 

0.7 8 

-1.0 2 

0.6 0 

0.6 6 

2.7 2 

3.6 4 

-2.7 0 

-0.1 7 

-0.1 4 

-0.9 6 

0.4 1 

3.9 1 

1.9 7 

-0.8 0 

-2.4 9 

1.1 9 

0.4 1 

-0.8 7 

-0.3 4 

1.1 2 

-1.0 6 

-0.2 5 

-0.4 0 

1.3 7 

0.7 9 

. 0.7 8 

2.3 1 

-0.5 0 

1.4 1 

0.6 6 

-0.7 6 

-0.0 2 

0.4 5 

4.2 6 

2.9 5 

-3.6 5 

119. 6 

120. 7 

91. 2 

94. 0 

167. 1 

115. 0 

97. 8 

95. 7 

103. 0 

111. 2 

104. 3 

89. 8 

101. 7 

103. 4 

103. 7 

97. 9 

94. 1 

102. 0 

116. 2 

121. 0 

99. 7 

97. 9 

108. 9 

118. 2 

110. 2 

119. 5 

158. 2 

238. 4 

186. 4 

May June July Aug. Sept. 

OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES <§> 

(1967=100 ) 

ll6!7 

119. 9 

89. 9 

98. 2 

164. 7 

113. 3 

97. 1 

96. 7 

101. 7 

107. 3 

103. 4 

90. 2 

102. 4 

103. 7 

104. 0 

97. 4 

94. 8 

100. 5 

116. 4 

117. 8 

99. 2 

95. 7 

110. 0 

117. 5 

108. 6 

124. 3 

162. 9 

226. 2 

184. 2 

108. 6 

121. 3 

87. 0 

101. 8 

156. 8 

110. 4 

96. 6 

97. 4 

103. 0 

104. 4 

104. 0 

91. 7 

102. 8 

102. 3 

100. 6 

95. 0 

93. 5 

101. 0 

114. 8 

117. 9 

99. 4 

95. 2 

111. 2 

114. 8 

106. 1 

123. 8 

170. 1 

227. 5 

173. 2 

EW ORDERS, CAPITAL GOODS 

(BILLIONS 

U 6 2 

1.0 2 

1.4 9 

2.8 8 

2.2 2 

2.4 1 

1.6 5 

2.3 0 

2.8 2 

2.6 1 

2.2 5 

2.7 9 

2.9 0 

2.7 3 

3.2 0 

3.3 5 

3.7 2 

4.3 4 

5.3 3 

4.7 8 

7.3 7 

9.0 0 

6.6 8 

7.2 0 

8.5 4 

11.0 2 

12.6 2 

10.7 5 

1.3 1 

1.0 8 

1.8 8 

2.7 4 

2.0 4 

2.3 0 

1.6 1 

2.3 1 

2.9 9 

2.6 3 

2.2 6 

2.9 2 

2.8 9 

2.6 6 

3.0 2 

3.4 9 

4.1 2 

4.2 3 

5.3 7 

4.8 8 

6.1 7 

7.6 8 

7.0 8 

7.3 6 

9.2 9 

11.1 5 

12.5 9 

10.5 6 

OF DOLLA 

l".57 

1.1 3 

1.8 1 

2.5 6 

2.2 3 

1.9 0 

1.6 5 

2.4 7 

3.0 2 

2.5 3 

2.2 8 

3.0 0 

2.8 7 

2.8 1 

2.9 7 

3.3 3 

4.2 3 

4.3 8 

5.3 1 

5.0 3 

6.1 7 

7.6 1 

6.6 2 

8.1 2 

8.4 7 

10.8 5 

12.4 1 

10.3 0 

UFACTURERS' UNFILLED ORDE 

(BILLIONS 

-ol42 

0.0 1 

-1.3 0 

0.4 6 

3.3 1 

2.1 8 

-0.5 2 

-1.8 3 

0.3 6 

1.2 2 

-0.8 6 

-0.6 9 

0.8 0 

-0.8 9 

0.3 0 

-0.6 3 

I 0.6 4 

0.9 5 

1.1 2 

1.9 4 

0.3 5 

0.4 1 

2.4 0 

-1.4 2 

-0.6 6 

0.4 3 

3.5 0 

2.9 8 

-2.6 8 

-0.3 5 

-0.3 4 

-1.1 0 

0.4 3 

2.4 2 

0.2 1 

-0.0 9 

-1.7 9 

0.3 4 

0.5 5 

-0.6 4 

-0.1 6 

-0.1 8 

-0.4 9 

0.2 5 

-0.3 3 

0.9 3 

1.1 9 

0.9 6 

1.5 2 

1.0 4 

-0.2 2 

1.1 1 

-0.6 3 

-1.1 0 

1.0 1 

3.9 2 

5.3 3 

-1.4 1 

OF DOLLA 

-0.4 0 

0.7 3 

-1.2 4 

0.7 7 

2.6 0 

2.7 2 

-0.5 3 

-1.6 7 

0.5 6 

0.2 6 

-1.2 5 

0.2 9 

0.3 2 

-0.1 9 

0.1 8 

-0.1 6 

-0.2 2 

1.2 3 

0.8 8 

2.1 8 

1.6 2 

-0.0 3 

0.0 8 

-0.6 0 

-1.6 1 

1.9 2 

3.3 4 

3.7 7 

-2.5 9 

84. 0 

109. 7 

121. 1 

88. 6 

112. 8 

139. 0 

108. 9 

95. 9 

96. 3 

106. 8 

104. 9 

103. 4 

94. 3 

102. 8 

101. 2 

101. 3 

93. 8 

93. 8 

102. 1 

114. 1 

118. 3 

97. 9 

94. 0 

112. 0 

112. 4 

104. 7 

123. 7 

178. 1 

228. 2 

171. 5 

80. 0 

111. 2 

121. 9 

93. 5 

127. 7 

134. 1 

108. 4 

95. 4 

95. 9 

108. 2 

107. 8 

102. 7 

96. 0 

103. 3 

101. 7 

102. 5 

94. 1 

93. 8 

105. 3 

114. 7 

111. 3 

97. 7 

94. 5 

114. 5 

111. 2 

106. 1 

124. 6 

189. 8 

224. 2 

179. 6 

80. 3 

115. 8 

120. 2 

95. 0 

142. 7 

132. 6 

108. 8 

93. 3 

97. 3 

109. 6 

109. 8 

99. 6 

95. 9 

104. 7 

100. 8 

102. 5 

93. 6 

93. 7 

107. 8 

114. 3 

108. 5 

97. 4 

95. 7 

116. 9 

110. 5 

107. 5 

124. 8 

186. 3 

214. 7 

184. 2 

Oct. 

8i!i 

122. 8 

118. 0 

91. 1 

148. 1 

135. 5 

105. 7 

90. 4 

99. 0 

108. 8 

109. 0 

96. 5 

98. 9 

105. 4 

99. 3 

101. 9 

94. 5 

95. 9 

111. 6 

114. 5 

105. 9 

97. 3 

97. 1 

115. 1 

109. 5 

107. 4 

128. 1 

188. 1 

204. 4 

181. 9 

Nov. 

10H3 

128. 0 

121. 3 

93. 8 

158. 8 

133. 5 

105. 7 

92. 8 

99. 5 

110. 3 

111. 9 

94. 5 

101. 4 

105. 5 

98. 1 

98. 5 

96. 0 

96. 9 

112. 7 

115. 0 

105. 5 

98. 7 

99. 9 

115. 1 

108. 8 

106. 9 

131. 6 

192. 4 

196. 4 

179. 8 

Dec. 

116I9 

128. 6 

119. 4 

92. 8 

164. 0 

133. 3 

104. 8 

92. 7 

99. 3 

113. 5 

112. 0 

93. 9 

99. 9 

104. 4 

96. 4 

100. 6 

95. 4 

97. 3 

112. 1 

116. 6 

105. 4 

99. 7 

100. 3 

116. 7 

106. 4 

106. 8 

134. 8 

208. 9 

183. 4 

180. 6 

INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE, IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

RS) 

1*.38 

1.0 6 

2.2 2 

2.4 6 

2.3 6 

2.0 9 

1.7 5 

2.4 3 

2.7 7 

2.5 2 

2.2 9 

3.0 3 

2.7 8 

2.9 4 

3.0 0 

3.3 6 

3.9 0 

4.4 6 

5.5 7 

5.1 3 

7.2 4 

7.5 2 

7.0 2 

6.9 2 

9.1 5 

11.1 6 

14.2 2 

11.3 2 

1.3 6 

1.1 3 

2.8 1 

2.3 5 

2.0 7 

1.8 4 

1.7 4 

2.5 9 

2.8 4 

2.5 6 

2.4 6 

2.7 9 

2.7 8 

3.0 8 

2.9 9 

3.4 7 

3.9 4 

4.3 4 

5.2 0 

5.2 4 

6.8 9 

7.6 8 

6.7 0 

7.4 0 

8.5 2 

10.8 6 

13.4 7 

10.9 2 

1.3 8 

1.2 6 

2.6 4 

2.1 1 

2.2 0 

1.8 8 

1.9 4 

2.5 7 

2.8 4 

2.4 2 

2.5 6 

3.0 4 

2.7 5 

2.9 1 

3.0 6 

3.5 3 

3.9 2 

4.5 0 

5.4 6 

4.9 9 

6.5 4 

8.6 7 

6.8 3 

7.9 2 

9.6 5 

11.3 0 

13.4 2 

11.0 7 

R S, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTF 

RS) 

-o!7 6 

0.3 6 

-0.8 8 

2.3 3 

2.2 5 

1.8 0 

-2.1 8 

-1.1 9 

0.8 1 

1.4 8 

-1.7 3 

-0.0 1 

-0.2 5 

-0.5 5 

0.3 0 

0 . 0 

0.0 1 

1.6 0 

0.8 4 

1.8 5 

0.7 0 

-1.3 7 

-0.1 3 

-0.7 7 

-0.4 3 

0.6 2 

2.1 4 

3.8 3 

j -0.4 3 

-0.5 0 

0.2 1 

-0.4 1 

3.9 1 

0.9 7 

0.6 5 

-2.2 5 

-1.0 0 

0.6 5 

1.9 0 

-1.7 0 

-0.0 9 

0.0 4 

0.3 8 

0.4 2 

-0.3 9 

0.2 1 

0.7 2 

0.8 7 

1.2 6 

0.5 4 

0.8 5 

-0.0 3 

-1.2 5 

0.0 3 

0.5 4 

2.5 8 

5.4 6 

-1.1 8 

-0.0 1 

-0.2 7 

-0.3 0 

2.1 8 

0.8 0 

0.8 5 

-3.4 9 

0.3 0 

1.1 8 

0.1 2 

-1.4 1 

-0.5 4 

0.7 8 

0.1 6 

0.0 3 

0.5 1 

0.5 2 

1.1 0 

1.3 1 

2.2 6 

0.2 5 

0.9 8 

0.7 4 

-0.6 9 

0.3 6 

2.5 6 

2.8 5 

2.6 4 

-1.1 1 

1.3 9 

1.1 9 

2.4 0 

2.4 0 

2.1 9 

1.8 0 

1.9 3 

2.6 4 

2.8 8 

2.3 6 

2.4 8 

2.9 3 

2.6 9 

2.9 4 

3.1 1 

3.5 4 

4.0 1 

4.6 3 

5.3 6 

5.0 4 

7.8 8 

7.6 5 

6.5 8 

7.6 7 

9.3 0 

12.3 1 

11.9 7 

11.1 9 

I ES 

-o!4 9 

-0.4 4 

0.3 4 

1.9 7 

1.3 2 

-0.5 6 

-2.5 4 

1.3 1 

1.4 7 

-0.1 6 

-1.9 1 

0.0 4 

0.6 3 

-0.8 5 

0.0 2 

0.5 1 

0.0 9 

1.2 4 

1.3 7 

0.8 5 

1.0 8 

1.5 6 

-0.0 4 

-1.1 4 

0.5 9 

1.0 3 

3.4 4 

-1.0 9 

-1.4 0 

1.4 0 

1.2 5 

2.3 7 

2.3 8 

1.9 7 

1.7 8 

1.8 3 

2.7 7 

3.2 1 

2.3 3 

2.5 8 

2.7 4 

2.6 0 

3.0 4 

3.3 4 

3.4 5 

4.0 6 

4.7 2 

5.1 5 

5.1 2 

6.9 6 

7.8 0 

6.9 6 

7.9 7 

9.6 2 

12.4 4 

11.5 8 

11.3 7 

-o!o4 

-0.6 1 

0.4 3 

1.1 2 

0.8 1 

-0.6 5 

-1.8 5 

-0.8 2 

1.1 6 

0.2 5 

-1.4 5 

0.7 3 

-0.1 2 

-0.4 0 

0.2 8 

0.0 8 

0.1 8 

0.7 9 

1.2 4 

0.3 5 

0.3 1 

0.4 0 

0.0 3 

-0.3 7 

0.8 3 

1.4 2 

3.9 3 

-0.9 0 

-0.2 7 

1.4 3 

1.2 0 

2.6 8 

2.3 7 

2.1 9 

1.7 6 

1.9 5 

2.8 7 

3.0 7 

2.1 6 

2.4 7 

2.9 6 

2.8 6 

2.8 8 

3.151 

3.6 1 

4.1 5 

5.0 5 

5.1 9 

5.4 0 

7.4 9 

7.4 6 

7.7 0 

8.401 

9.9 6 

12.32 1 

11.5 7 

11.05 ! 

o!o6 

-0.8 6 

0.2 6 

1.2 9 

0.4 5 

-0.4 8 

-1.9 4 

-0.0 6 

1.8 7 

0.0 7 

-1.4 4 

0.0 6 

-0.3 4 

-0.2 7 

0.5 9 

1.5 9 

-0.3 1 

1.0 1 

1.4 4 

0.3 3 

1.0 9 

1.2 0 

0.0 1 

0.7 3 

0.5 3 

2.6 0 

3.1 5 

-2.0 7 

-0.7 9 

Quarterly 

IQ 

117! 2 

124. 2 

109. 6 

93. 4 

172. 2 

124. 0 

102. 1 

91. 6 

102. 1 

111. 1 

106. 6 

92. 7 

99. 7 

103. 7 

99. 5 

100. 9 

94. 6 

98. 2 

111. 1 

121. 8 

104. 4 

99. 4 

105. 1 

119. 0 

107. 0 

113. 6 

147. 4 

228. 4 

181. 2 

4.1 6 

3.5 6 

4.1 7 

9.0 7 

6.7 3 

7.2 9 

5.2 0 

7.0 0 

7.9 5 

8.7 5 

6.6 5 

8.3 8 

8.3 4 

8.2 6 

9.2 5 

9.8 4 

11.2 3 

12.5 9 

15.2 1 

13.8 5 

20.1 7 

22.8 0 

22.2 3 

21.7 8 

24.8 5 

30.5 1 

38.0 2 

32.3 6 

... 

-0I26 

-0.9 3 

0.4 5 

4.3 5 

0.8 5 

0.4 5 

-2.2 1 

0.8 6 

0.6 5 

-0.3 8 

-1.2 0 

1.0 2 

-1.2 1 

-0.1 7 

0.1 5 

1.1 0 

0.8 8 

0.8 5 

! 1.9 2 

-0.1 7 

0.5 5 

0.4 8 

-1.0 5 

0.4 1 

0.4 2 

3.1 6 

3.4 6 

-3.0 8 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

113. 0 

120. 6 

89. 4 

98. 0 

162. 9 

112. 9 

97. 2 

96. 6 

102. 6 

107. 6 

103. 9 

90. 6 

102. 3 

103. 1 

102. 8 

96. 8 

94. 1 

101. 2 

115. 8 

118. 9 

99. 4 

96. 3 

110. 0 

116. 8 

108. 3 

122. 5 

163. 7 

230. 7 

181. 3 

81. 4 

112. 2 

121. 1 

92. 4 

127. 7 

135. 2 

108. 7 

94. 9 

96. 5 

108. 2 

107. 5 

101. 9 

95. 4 

103. 6 

101. 2 

102. 1 

93. 8 

93. 8 

105. 1 

114. 4 

112. 7 

97. 7 

94. 7 

114. 5 

111. 4 

106. 1 

124. 4 

184. 7 

222. 4 

178. 4 

IVQ 

PERIOD 

97. 8 

126. 5 

119. 6 

92. 6 

157. 0 

134. 1 

105. 4 

92. 0 

99. 3 

110. 9 

111. 0 

95. 0 

100. 1 

105. 1 

97. 9 

100. 3 

95. 3 

96. 7 

112. 1 

115. 4 

105. 6 

98. 6 

99. 1 

115. 6 

108. 2 

107. 0 

131. 5 

196. 5 

194. 7 

180. 8 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

4!5 0 

3.2 3 

5.1 8 

8.1 8 

6.4 9 

6.6 1 

4.9 1 

7.0 8 

8.8 3 

7.7 7 

6.7 9 

8.7 1 

8.6 6 

8.2 0 

9.1 9 

10.1 7 

12.0 7 

12.9 5 

16.0 1 

14.6 9 

19.7 1 

24.2 9 

20.3 8 

22.6 8 

26.3 0 

33.0 2 

37.6 2 

31.6 1 

4.1 2 

3.4 5 

7.6 7 

6.9 2 

6.6 3 

5.8 1 

5.4 3 

7.5 9 

8.4 5 

7.5 0 

7.3 1 

8.8 6 

8.3 1 

8.9 3 

9.0 5 

10.3 6 

11.7 6 

13.3 0 

16.2 3 

15.3 6 

20.6 7 

23.8 7 

20.5 5 

22.2 4 

27.3 2 

33.3 2 

41.1 1 

33.3 1 

AVERAGE FOR 

-o!3 9 

0.1 3 

-1.2 1 

0.5 5 

2.7 8 

1.7 0 

-0.3 8 

-1.7 6 

0.4 2 

0.6 8 

-0.9 2 

-0.1 9 

0.3 1 

-0.5 2 

0.2 4 

-0.3 7 

0.4 5 

1.1 2 

0.9 9 

1.8 8 

1.0 0 

0.0 5 

1.2 0 

-0.8 8 

-1.1 2 

1.1 2 

3.5 9 

4.0 3 

-2.2 3 

-0.4 2 

0.1 0 

-0.5 3 

2.8 1 

1.3 4 

1.1 0 

-2.6 4 

-0.6 3 

0.8 8 

1.1 7 

-1.6 1 

-0.2 1 

0.1 9 

0 . 0 

0.2 5 

0.0 4 

0.2 5 

1.1 4 

1.0 1 

1.7 9 

0.5 0 

0.1 5 

0.1 9 

-0.9 0 

-0.0 1 

1.2 4 

2.5 2 

3.9 8 

-0.9 1 

4.2 2 

3.6 4 

7.4 5 

7.1 5 

6.3 5 

5.3 4 

5.7 1 

8.2 8 

9.1 6 

6.8 5 

7.5 3 

8.6 3 

8.1 5 

8.8 6 

9.6 0 

10.6 0 

12.2 2 

14.4 0 

15.7 0 

15.5 6 

22.3 3 

22.91 1 

21.2 4 

24.0 4 

28.8 8 

37.0 7 

35.1 2 

33.6 1 

PERIOD 

-0*.1 6 

-0.6 4 

0.3 4 

1.4 6 

0.8 6 

-0.5 6 

-2.1 1 

0.1 4 

1.5 0 

0.0 5 

-1.6 0 

0.2 8 

0.0 6 

-0.5 1 

0.3 0 

0.7 3 

-0.0 1 

1.0 1 

1.3 5 

0.5 1 

0.8 3 

1.0 5 

0 . 0 

-0.2 6 

0.6 5 

1.6 8 

3.5 1 

-1.3 5 

-0.8 2 

Annual 

117! 2 

121. 4 

96. 0 

119. 0 

151. 1 

112. 8 

96. 5 

96. 0 

105. 9 

109. 3 

101. 8 

94. 7 

102. 7 

101. 5 

101. 2 

96. 7 

94. 8 

104. 2 

114. 2 

114. 8 

100. 0 

97. 4 

111. 3 

113. 9 

107. 1 

123. 0 

173. 1 

219. 0 

180. 4 

... 1 17.0 0 

1 13.8 8 

24.4 7 

31.3 2 

26.2 0 

25.0 5 

21.2 5 

29.9 5 

34.3 9 

30.8 7 

28.2 8 

34.5 8 

33.4 6 

34.2 5 

37.0 9 

40.9 7 

47.2 8 

53.2 4 

63.1 5 

59.4 6 

82.8 8 

93.8 7 

84.4 0 

90.7 4 

107.3 5 

133.9 2 

151.8 7 

130.8 9 

.77 

-o!i6 

-0.5 8 

1.3 2 

2.3 3 

' 0.7 7 

-1.1 7 

-1.1 2 

0.9 2 

0.6 4 

1 -1.1 3 

-0.3 3 

0.3 9 

-0.5 6 

0.1 5 

0.1 4 

0.4 4 

1.0 4 

1.0 5 

1.5 2 

0.5 4 

0.4 5 

0.4 7 

-0.7 7 

-0.0 2 

1.1 2 

3.2 0 

2.5 3 

1 -1.76 

84 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 

2 7 . VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS" NEW ORDERS 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949 . . . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

3.1 9 

2.5 6 

3.0 4 

6.0 8 

4.3 0 

5.0 7 

3.3 8 

3.9 4 

4.8 2 

4.8 0 

3.5 6 

4.0 5 

4.1 2 

4.1 4 

4.6 3 

4.8 5 

5.9 3 

6.1 5 

7.0 4 

6.2 1 

6.9 3 

7.8 9 

8.2 0 

7.0 3 

7.8 6 

9.5 8 

11.6 5 

8.7 8 

1,04 0 

1,05 2 

1,38 5 

1,19 6 

1,88 3 

1,92 8 

1,38 8 

1,48 4 

1,35 8 

1,75 7 

1,44 1 

1,15 1 

1,17 0 

1,65 7 

1,46 0 

1,18 3 

1,36 1 

1,24 4 

1,60 3 

1,36 1 

1,37 0 

1,06 7 

1,38 0 

1,76 9 

1,08 5 

1,82 8 

2,49 4 

2,48 1 

1,45 1 

1,01 6 

3.5 7 

2.7 7 

3.2 7 

6.1 3 

4.4 3 

4.7 9 

3.5 3 

4.3 1 

4.4 8 

4.7 7 

3.3 7 

4.1 7 

4.2 6 

4.1 6 

4.9 5 

4.9 9 

5.2 8 

6.0 4 

7.6 8 

6.5 6 

8.0 1 

9.2 2 

8.0 3 

7.6 3 

8.4 2 

10.0 3 

11.6 8 

7.9 7 

1,08 5 

1,07 4 

1,20 0 

1,13 7 

1,83 4 

1,63 8 

1,51 6 

1,46 0 

1,41 7 

1,66 4 

1,44 4 

1,16 8 

1,10 7 

1,66 7 

1,50 3 

1,22 6 

1,27 8 

1,45 6 

1,82 0 

1,43 3 

1,37 8 

1,12 3 

1,52 0 

1,70 5 

1,30 5 

1,74 1 

2,39 0 

2,28 9 

1,75 2 

9 2 3 

2 9 . INDEX 

86.* 6 

80. 1 

109. 4 

80. 4 

157. 4 

146. 3 

99. 6 

104. 9 

101. 9 

136. 4 

109. 8 

86. 5 

91. 5 

114. 7 

102. 7 

91. 2 

105. 5 

113. 0 

117. 4 

114. 4 

120. 0 

87. 2 

103. 3 

127. 9 

93. 1 

144. 0 

192. 9 

195. 7 

114. 7 

61. 9 

91. 4 

85. 8 

100. 4 

81. 9 

159. 2 

114. 8 

115. 3 

110. 7 

100. 4 

151. 0 

106. 8 

90. 8 

78. 7 

119. 6 

102. 3 

90. 4 

112. 3 

109. 7 

130. 6 

107. 3 

104. 9 

79. 5 

117. 6 

131. 0 

98. 0 

139. 2 

186. 9 

191. 8 

117. 2 

62. 8 

3.5 8 

2.7 4 

3.2 7 

5.7 8 

4.5 1 

4.5 0 

2.9 5 

4.9 0 

4.7 0 

4.5 4 

3.4 5 

4.7 1 

4.2 0 

4.1 6 

4.4 1 

5.0 7 

5.6 6 

6.5 5 

7.5 4 

6.6 1 

9.4 2 

8.5 3 

7.6 5 

7.7 7 

8.7 7 

10.4 8 

11.9 3 

7.5 8 

28 

1,16 7 

1,03 2 

1,37 9 

1,17 1 

1,97 6 

1,48 1 

1,48 3 

1,50 6 

1,41 1 

1,68 4 

1,40 1 

1,17 3 

1,10 8 

1,62 0 

1,10 9 

1,31 2 

1,44 3 

1,53 4 

1,51 7 

1,42 3 

1,39 4 

1,05 6 

1,46 6 

1,56 1 

1,31 9 

1,91 0 

2,33 4 

2,36 5 

1,55 5 

9 9 0 

OF NEW P 

114* 7 

83. 9 

104. 0 

86. 8 

159. 1 

104. 5 

105. 5 

111. 6 

105. 8 

129. 3 

109. 8 

91. 7 

87. 2 

125. 0 

89. 8 

94. 0 

106. 7 

113. 8 

118. 8 

109. 6 

111. 8 

83. 7 

120. 0 

126. 0 

99. 2 

154. 2 

181. 4 

177. 7 

124. 1 

62. 1 

May June July Aug. Sept. 

CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES, NONDEFENSE, IN 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

3.9 8 

2.3 0 

3.4 0 

5.6 8 

4.3 6 

4.7 0 

3.1 1 

4.3 0 

4.8 8 

4.1 8 

3.4 9 

4.2 8 

4.3 6 

4.1 3 

4.8 2 

5.0 8 

5.5 6 

6.4 6 

7.7 4 

6.6 8 

8.4 6 

10.0 6 

7.1 2 

7.3 8 

8.5 7 

10.7 5 

11.4 3 

7.9 4 

3.2 2 

2.4 5 

4.2 9 

5.4 0 

4.0 0 

4.4 5 

3.0 5 

4.3 2 

5.1 2 

4.2 0 

3.5 1 

4.4 7 

4.3 6 

4.0 3 

4.5 5 

5.2 8 

6.1 7 

6.2 8 

7.7 6 

6.8 1 

7.0 7 

8.5 7 

7.5 2 

7.5 2 

9.3 2 

10.8 6 

11.1 4 

7.7 8 

3.8 2 

2.5 8 

4.1 1 

5.0 4 

4.4 0 

3.6 4 

3.1 2 

4.5 9 

5.1 5 

4.0 4 

3.5 4 

4.5 6 

4.3 4 

4.2 5 

4.4 9 

5.0 2 

6.3 4 

6.4 8 

7.6 4 

7.0 1 

7.0 5 

8.4 6 

7.0 2 

8.2 9 

8.4 7 

10.5 0 

10.7 1 

7.5 7 

. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING UNI 

3.3 2 

2.4 1 

4.9 7 

4.8 4 

4.6 6 

3.9 9 

3.3 2 

4.4 9 

4.7 3 

4.0 1 

3.5 6 

4.5 8 

4.2 0 

4.4 5 

4.5 3 

5.0 6 

5.8 3 

6.6 0 

7.9 9 

7.1 4 

8.2 5 

8.3 1 

7.3 9 

7.0 7 

9.1 4 

10.8 1 

11.9 6 

8.2 6 

3.1 9 

2.5 8 

6.1 5 

4.6 4 

4.0 8 

3.5 1 

3.3 0 

4.7 4 

4.8 0 

4.0 5 

3.8 2 

4.2 2 

4.2 0 

4.6 7 

4.5 2 

5.2 3 

5.8 9 

6.4 2 

7.4 4 

7.2 8 

7.8 3 

8.4 8 

7.0 5 

7.5 0 

8.5 0 

10.5 0 

11.0 8 

7.9 7 

3.1 9 

2.8 9 

5.6 9 

4.1 5 

4.3 4 

3.5 8 

3.6 9 

4.6 3 

4.7 3 

3.8 0 

3.9 9 

4.5 9 

4.1 6 

4.4 1 

4.6 3 

5.3 1 

5.8 6 

6.6 4 

7.7 9 

6.9 3 

7.4 0 

9.5 1 

7.1 6 

8.0 4 

9.6 2 

10,8 9 

10.8 1 

8.0 5 

TS STARTED, TOTAL 

(ANNUAL RATE, THOUSANDS) 

1,05 7 

1,03 9 

1,50 1 

1,29 2 

1,94 5 

1,35 2 

1,41 2 

1,49 8 

1,43 3 

1,70 8 

1,40 8 

1,14 7 

1,15 4 

1,59 0 

1,28 9 

1,16 6 

1,52 4 

1,68 9 

1,44 8 

1,43 8 

1,35 2 

1,09 1 

1,55 4 

1,52 4 

1,26 4 

1,98 6 

2,24 9 

2,08 4 

1,60 7 

9 9 6 

1,02 8 

1,09 0 

1,45 0 

1,31 9 

2,05 2 

1,35 9 

1,40 8 

1,42 5 

1,41 2 

1,73 0 

1,37 5 

1,17 4 

1,19 1 

1,49 8 

1,27 1 

1,22 8 

1,48 3 

1,64 1 

1,46 7 

1,47 8 

1,26 5 

1,30 4 

1,40 8 

1,58 3 

1,29 0 

2,04 9 

2,22 1 

2,26 6 

1,42 6 

1,10 9 

9 8 5 

1,17 4 

1,44 1 

1,34 1 

2,04 2 

1,41 9 

1,35 3 

1,38 0 

1,49 8 

1,70 4 

1,32 5 

1,17 5 

1,23 6 

1,50 3 

1,24 7 

1,38 2 

1,40 4 

1,58 8 

1,55 0 

1,48 8 

1,19 4 

1,24 8 

1,40 5 

1,52 8 

1,38 5 

2,02 6 

2,25 4 

2,06 7 

1,51 3 

1,06 7 

RIVATE HOUSING UNITS AUTH 

82* 7 

77. 5 

116. 5 

96. 6 

161. 9 

96. 9 

103. 5 

106. 2 

106. 9 

132. 9 

109. 4 

86. 7 

92. 0 

119. 4 

95. 6 

94. 2 

116. 2 

116. 6 

114. 4 

105. 1 

103. 7 

90. 7 

112. 7 

126. 2 

107. 3 

153. 0 

184. 3 

164. 4 

108. 1 

72. 6 

(1967-100 ) 

82* 3 

80. 5 

106. 7 

104. 2 

161. 3 

99. 3 

101. 2 

106. 4 

108. 8 

133. 6 

101. 9 

90. 5 

96. 2 

117. 4 

98. 9 

96. 6 

107. 4 

122. 2 

117. 6 

109. 3 

97. 6 

94. 3 

113. 7 

116. 4 

116. 4 

172. 9 

178. 1 

166. 4 

98. 1 

77. 8 

79. 6 

91. 6 

103. 1 

106. 4 

160. 7 

96. 9 

101. 6 

103. 5 

116. 9 

126. 2 

100. 1 

92. 5 

102. 6 

115. 5 

90. 1 

100. 7 

108. 5 

121. 8 

115. 8 

112. 4 

86. 6 

102. 5 

113. 9 

118. 2 

115. 8 

166. 8 

188. 1 

176. 7 

93. 6 

80. 8 

9 7 2 

1,25 2 

1,41 9 

1,38 4 

2,05 1 

1,25 7 

1,43 8 

1,34 6 

1,55 9 

1,63 2 

1,28 9 

1,19 1 

1,33 7 

1,54 7 

1,19 7 

1,33 5 

1,45 0 

1,61 4 

1,56 2 

1,52 9 

1,08 S 

1,36 4 

1,51 2 

1,36 8 

1,51 7 

2,08 3 

2,25 2 

2,12 3 

1,31 6 

1,22 9 

1,00 7 

1,35 5 

1,32 9 

1,50 0 

2,12 1 

1,33 4 

1,44 3 

1,32 4 

1,56 3 

1,62 5 

1,31 3 

1,19 3 

1,37 4 

1,43 0 

1,34 4 

1,31 2 

1,51 7 

1,63 9 

1,56 9 

1,43 2 

1,11 9 

1,40 7 

1,49 5 

1,35 8 

1,39 9 

2,15 8 

2,38 2 

2,05 1 

1,14 2 

1,25 3 

9 5 8 

1,53 2 

1,30 3 

1,60 3 

1,82 1 

1,45 6 

1,48 3 

1,34 8 

1,61 8 

1,58 0 

1,23 4 

1,19 1 

1,45 1 

1,54 0 

1,09 7 

1,42 9 

1,32 4 

1,76 3 

1,45 5 

1,48 2 

1,04 6 

1,42 1 

1,55 6 

1,50 7 

1,53 4 

2,04 1 

2,48 1 

1,87 4 

1,15 0 

1,28 1 

OR1ZED BY LOCAL BUILDING 

77* 6 

96. 6 

102. 2 

110. 2 

182. 8 

92. 9 

107. 9 

99. 9 

119. 9 

126. 7 

99. 4 

86. 2 

111. 9 

112. 5 

93. 9 

101. 9 

111. 9 

119. 6 

118. 1 

112. 0 

84. 4 

103. 2 

117. 8 

112. 0 

116. 1 

181. 3 

189. 2 

156. 8 

86. 3 

87. 6 

77. 7 

108. 1 

94. 8 

112. 3 

158. 2 

94. 8 

107. 6 

98. 4 

118. 9 

122. 2 

97. 0 

92. 0 

111. 7 

113. 7 

93. 4 

108. 9 

112. 8 

118. 6 

118. 2 

113. 1 

79. 4 

107. 7 

118. 9 

115. 4 

122. 2 

175. 6 

195. 0 

155. 9 

79. 0 

86. 0 

78. 3 

111. 2 

84. 8 

136. 2 

133. 7 

122. 2 

115. 5 

94. 6 

121. 9 

120. 4 

94. 5 

92. 4 

114. 5 

109. 4 

92. 6 

103. 2 

115. 0 

128. 0 

114. 5 

111. 1 

70. 1 

112. 1 

128. 3 

110. 7 

125. 0 

174. 9 

206. 2 

146. 8 

72. 4 

94. 1 

Oct. Nov. 

197 2 DOLLARS 

3.1 8 

2.7 4 

5.0 7 

4.7 2 

4.3 4 

3.4 2 

3.6 7 

4.7 4 

4.7 6 

3.6 9 

3.8 6 

4.4 3 

4.0 7 

4.4 5 

4.6 9 

5.3 3 

6.0 0 

6.8 4 

7.6 0 

6.9 8 

8.9 0 

8.3 7 

6.8 4 

7.7 9 

9.2 5 

11.7 9 

9.4 2 

8.0 3 

974 

1,57 1 

1,19 0 

1,66 2 

1,60 5 

1,38 6 

1,51 3 

1,34 2 

1,61 0 

1,49 0 

1,26 6 

1,20 4 

1,47 2 

1,35 5 

1,24 6 

1,41 5 

1,53 3 

1,77 9 

1,52 4 

1,45 2 

8 4 3 

1,49 1 

1,56 9 

1,30 1 

1,58 0 

2,12 8 

2,48 5 

1,67 7 

1,07 0 

1,36 8 

PERMITS 

74* 3 

118. 2 

89. 4 

135. 6 

126. 2 

93. 2 

116. 8 

99. 6 

126. 2 

117. 8 

93. 2 

91. 1 

118. 1 

105. 3 

91. 4 

105. 6 

111. 1 

128. 1 

111. 4 

115. 7 

66. 9 

112. 2 

124. 5 

106. 6 

137. 1 

177. 5 

202. 9 

121. 6 

71. 0 

95. 7 

3.2 0 

2.8 8 

4.9 6 

4.6 8 

3.8 9 

3.3 8 

3.4 7 

4.9 4 

5.2 5 

3.6 4 

4.0 0 

4.1 4 

3.9 4 

4.6 0 

5.0 5 

5.1 9 

6.0 6 

6.9 6 

7.2 7 

7.0 6 

7.8 4 

8.5 1 

7.2 3 

8.0 9 

9.5 5 

11.8 4 

8.9 6 

8.1 1 

957 

1,55 7 

1,19 6 

1,78 5 

1,56 1 

1,32 4 

1,47 5 

1,38 3 

1,73 0 

1,43 4 

1,21 2 

1,16 2 

1,59 3 

1,41 6 

1,24 6 

1,38 5 

1,62 2 

1,62 2 

1,48 6 

1,46 0 

9 6 1 

1,53 8 

1,63 0 

1,22 9 

1,64 7 

2,18 2 

2,42 1 

1,72 4 

1,02 6 

1,37 0 

77*6 

117. 5 

86. 2 

141. 9 

123. 6 

90. 9 

117. 2 

100. 1 

135. 8 

107. 5 

93. 7 

88. 5 

134. 1 

100. 7 

92. 0 

108. 3 

116. 3 

122. 9 

113. 5 

118. 2 

66. 6 

113. 7 

125. 8 

104. 4 

131. 7 

182. 2 

192. 5 

120. 8 

67. 5 

97. 1 

Dec. 

3*2 4 

2.7 7 

5.4 1 

4.6 6 

4.3 2 

3.3 3 

3.6 9 

5.0 9 

5.0 0 

3.3 8 

3.8 2 

4.4 7 

4.3 4 

4.3 7 

4.7 6 

5.4 1 

6.2 0 

7.4 4 

7.3 0 

7.4 1 

8.4 5 

8.0 8 

7.9 6 

8.5 0 

9.8 6 

11.6 7 

8.8 5 

7.8 7 

9 9 1 

1,44 7 

1,21 8 

1,82 4 

1,90 0 

1,33 0 

1,47 6 

1,34 3 

1,80 7 

1,43 1 

1,18 4 

1,14 6 

1,59 8 

1,60 1 

1,06 3 

1,36 5 

1,56 4 

1,49 1 

1,48 4 

1,65 6 

9 9 0 

1,30 8 

1,54 8 

1,32 7 

1,89 3 

2,29 5 

2,36 6 

1,52 6 

9 7 5 

1,33 6 

72* 9 

117. 4 

82. 8 

146. 6 

158. 6 

94. 1 

108. 3 

102. 4 

132. 0 

107. 0 

92. 8 

89.3 1 

115. 8 

108. 2 

89. 4 

109. 2 

116. 3 

128. 8 

105.3 1 

119. 0 

67. 2 

115. 2 ! 

121. 8 1 

101. 3 

154. 9 

186. 9 

208. 5 

111. 0 

74. 9 

94. 0 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

10*3 4 

8.0 7 

9.5 8 

17.9 9 

13.2 4 

14.3 6 

9.8 6 

13.1 5 

14.0 0 

14.1 1 

10.3 8 

12.9 3 

12.5 8 

12.4 6 

13.9 9 

14.9 1 

16.8 7 

18.7 4 

22.2 6 

19.3 8 

24.3 6 

25.6 4 

23.8 8 

22.4 3 

25.0 5 

30.0 9 

35.2 6 

24.3 3 

1,09 7 

1,05 3 

1,32 1 

1,16 8 

1 1,89 8 

1,68 2 

1,46 2 

1,48 3 

1,39 5 

1,70 2 

1,42 9 

1,16 4 

1,12 8 

1,64 8 

1,35 7 

1,24 0 

1,36 1 

1,41 1 

1,64 7 

1,40 6 

1,38 1 

1,08 2 

1,45 5 

1,67 8 

1,23 6 

1,82 6 

2,40 6 

2,37 8 

1,58 6 

9 7 6 

97." 6 

83. 3 

104. 6 

83. 0 

158. 6 

121. 9 

106. 8 

109. 1 

102. 7 

138. 9 

108. 8 

89. 7 

85. 8 

119. 8 

98. 3 

91. 9 

108. 2 

112. 2 

122. 3 

110. 4 

112. 2 

83. 5 

113. 6 

128. 3 

96. 8 

145. 8 

187. 1 

188. 4 

118. 7 

62. 3 

II Q I II Q IV Q 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

11.0 2 

7.3 3 

11.8 0 

16.1 2 

12.7 6 

12.7 9 

9.2 8 

13.2 1 

15.1 5 

12.4 2 

10.5 4 

13.3 1 

13.0 6 

12.4 1 

13.8 6 

15.3 8 

18.0 7 

19.2 2 

23.1 4 

20.5 0 

22.5 8 

27.0 9 

21.6 6 

23.1 9 

26.3 6 

32.1 1 

33.2 8 

23.2 9 

9.7 0 

7.8 8 

16.8 1 

13.6 3 

13.0 8 

11.0 8 

10.3 1 

13.8 6 

14.2 6 

11.8 6 

11.3 7 

13.3 9 

12.5 6 

13.5 3 

13.6 8 

15.6 0 

17.5 8 

19.6 6 

23.2 2 

21.3 5 

23.4 8 

26.3 0 

21.6 0 

22.6 1 

27.2 6 

32.2 0 

33.8 5 

24.2 8 

9.6 2 

8.3 9 

15.4 4 

14.0 6 

12.5 5 

10.1 3 

10.8 3 

14.7 7 

15.0 1 

10.7 1 

11.6 8 

13.0 4 

12.3 5 

13.4 2 

14.5 0 

15.9 3 

18.2 6 

21.2 4 

22.1 7 

21.4 5 

25.1 9 

24.9 6 

22.0 3 

24.3 8 

28.6 6 

35.3 0 

27.2 3 

24.0 1 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

1,02 3 

1,10 1 

1,46 4 

1,31 7 

2,01 3 

1,37 7 

1,39 1 

1,43 4 

1,44 8 

1,71 4 

1,36 9 

1,16 5 

1,19 4 

1,53 0 

1,26 9 

1,25 9 

1,47 0 

1,63 9 

1,48 8 

1,46 8 

1,27 0 

1,21 4 

1,45 6 

1,54 5 

1,31 3 

2,02 0 

2,24 1 

2,13 9 

1,51 5 

1,05 7 

9 7 9 

1,38 0 

1,35 0 

1,49 6 

1,99 8 

1,34 9 

1,45 5 

1,33 9 

1,58 0 

1,61 2 

1,27 9 

1,19 2 

1,38 7 

1,50 6 

1,21 3 

1,35 9 

1,43 0 

1,67 2 

1,52 9 

1,48 1 

1,08 4 

1,39 7 

1,52 1 

1,41 1 

1,48 3 

2,09 4 

2,37 2 

2,01 6 

1,20 3 

1,25 4 

974 

1,52 5 

1,20 1 

1,75 7 

1,68 9 

1,34 7 

1,48 8 

1,35 6 

1,71 6 

1,45 2 

1,22 1 

1,17 1 

1,55 4 

1,45 7 

1,18 5 

1,38 8 

1,57 3 

1,63 1 

1,49 8 

1,52 3 

9 3 1 

1,44 6 

1,58 2 

1,31 2 

1,70 7 

2,20 2 

2,42 4 

1,64 2 

1,02 4 

1,35 8 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

8i* 5 

83. 2 

108. 8 

102. 4 

161. 3 

97. 7 

102. 1 

105. 4 

110. 9 

130. 9 

103. 8 

89. 9 

96. 9 

117. 4 

94. 9 

97. 2 

110. 7 

120. 2 

115. 9 

108. 9 

96. 0 

95. 8 

113. 4 

120. 3 

113. 2 

164. 2 

183. 5 

169. 2 

99. 9 

77. 1 

77. 9 

105. 3 

93. 9 

119. 6 

158. 2 

103. 3 

110. 3 

97. 6 

120. 2 

123. 1 

97. 0 

90. 2 

112. 7 

111. 9 

93. 3 

104. 7 

113. 2 

122. 1 

116. 9 

112. 1 

78. 0 

107. 7 

121. 7 

112. 7 

121. 1 

177. 3 

196. 8 

153. 2 

79. 2 

89. 2 

74. 7 

117. 7 

86. 1 

141. 4 

136. 1 

92. 7 

114. 1 

100. 7 

131. 3 

110. 8 

93. 2 

89. 6 

122. 7 

104. 7 

90. 9 

107. 7 

114. 6 

126. 6 

110. 1 

117. 6 

66. 9 

113. 7 

124. 0 

104. 1 

141. 2 

182. 2 

201. 3 

117. 8 

71. 1 

95. 6 

Annual 

40.6 8 

31.6 7 

53.6 3 

61.8 0 

51.6 3 

48.3 6 

40.2 8 

54.9 9 

58.4 2 

49.1 0 

43.9 7 

i 52.6 7 

50.5 5 

51.8 2 

56.0 3 

61.8 2 

70.7 8 

78.8 6 

90.7 9 

82.6 8 

95.6 1 

103.9 9 

89.1 7 

92.6 1 

107.3 3 

129.7 0 

129.6 2 

95.9 1 

1,01 5 

1,26 5 

1,34 4 

1,43 0 

1,90 8 

1,42 0 

1,44 6 

1,40 2 

1,53 2 

1,62 7 

1,32 5 

1,17 5 

1,31 4 

1,51 7 

1,25 2 

1,31 3 

1,46 3 

1,60 3 

1,52 9 

1,47 3 

1,16 5 

1,29 2 

1,50 8 

1,46 7 

1,43 4 

2,05 2 

2,35 7 

2,04 5 

1,33 8 

1,16 0 

82* 9 

97. 4 

98. 4 

111. 6 

| 153. 6 

103. 9 

108. 3 

1 103. 2 

116. 3 

125. 9 

100. 7 

89. 8 

104. 5 

113. 4 

94. 3 

100. 4 

111. 7 

120. 3 

116. 3 

112. 3 

88. 3 

100. 2 

118. 2 

116. 3 

118. 1 

167. 4 

192. 2 

157. 1 

92. 2 

81. 0 

BCD 1977 85 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Monthly Quarterly 

Year 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. II Q IV Q 

CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES, 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF- DOLLARS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

9.6 

1.9 

29.2 

5.7 

19.6 

-4.7 

4.5. 

9.1 

6.6 

-16.5 

0.5 

9.5 

-3.5 

7.0 

2.2 

6.5 

8.6 

0.3 

-0.3 

17.8 

-1.1 

2.2 

-3.5 

7.0 

3.7 

4.5 

7.1 

-3.1 

'5.3 

18.4 

-0.2 

5.4 

-3.8 

7.6 

5.1 

1.9 

-5.7 

5.3 

9.2 

-6.4 

7.8 

2. 

5. 

.5 

.2 

.3 

.9 

.9 

.2 

.2 

6.2 

26.9 

43.8 

3.9 

11. 

10. 

17. 

7. 

10. 

-1. 

5. 

13. 

5.8 

14.4 

10.1 

27.1 

44.9 

-14.8 

0.8 

13.1 

3.7 

-9.5 

14.2 

0.2 

0.1 

1.8 

1.2 

6.9 

7.4 

12.2 

7.0 

14.1 

12.2 

14.1 

10.1 

11.9 

17.4 

34.4 

-12.1 

8.0 

6.4 

0.9 

-1.7 

10.8 

2.5 

-1.1 

5.9 

5.6 

5.6 

10.3 

20.5 

2.5 

8.4 

11.8 

10.9 

3.4 

6.5 

31.2 

52.2 

-8.7 

11.4 

-4.4 

-3.2 

5.4 

-3.0 

9.5 

-4 

6.6 

5.7 

3.0 

-2.4 

8.4 

4.5 

2.4 

4.6 

5.3 

2.7 

12.5 

16.0 

8.3 

6.3 

13.6 

14.2 

9.5 

8.6 

28.8 

60.3 

-1.7 

8.9 

5.4 

7.0 

-1.8 

1.9 

-2.1 

5.4 

5.8 

5.8 

4.7 

12.0 

17.2 

11.4 

12.8 

12.3 

11.1 

13.3 

23.4 

28.8 

54.3 

19.5 

5.2 

1.0 

17.8 

0.1 

10.8 

2.6 

-0.9 

5.0 

8.0 

5.6 

4.3 

-4.8 

1.9 

4.9 

8.7 

6.7 

13.9 

4.8 

13.8 

5.1 

8.8 

15.6 

5.7 

11.6 

17.5 

20.4 

59.1 

8.0 

5.0 

-4.0 

20.0 

2.8 

9.3 

-5.0 

-3.8 

11.3 

5.0 

-8.6 

3.8 

3.5 

-1.0 

1.9 

6.2 

9.1 

-0.2 

3.0 

-5.5 

24.0 

2.5 

5.8 

-7.1 

4.2 

7.0 

10.7 

-2.1 

3.5 

-1.1 

0.6 

7.3 

0.5 

4.9 

9.0 

5.7 

18.6 

2.3 

14.8 

14.8 

1.3 

4.4 

15.5 

25.9 

70.7 

25.2 

-0.9 

-7.2 

17.4 

3.2 

3.7 

-3.4 

-0.3 

7.3 

4.4 

0.8 

6.5 

11.9 

-13.6 

1.2 

1.3 

0.5 

8.9 

9.7 

14.2 

15.1 

7.9 

13.0 

2.9 

13.9 

16.7 

49.5 

48.1 

-15.8 

5.2 

-6.6 

-4 

11.1 

14.0 

11.1 

7.8 

13.6 

5.8 

11.7 

7.9 

27.6 

42.3 

-7.0 

4.9 

9.2 

1.5 

-6.0 

10.4 

3.2 

0.0 

5.6 

4.1 

5.7 

8.6 

17.2 

4.7 

12.8 

12.6 

8.0 

8.8 

12.7 

27.7 

47.1 

-12.9 

7.2 

-2.1 

12.2 

3.6 

2.3 

5.0 

-3.5 

6.8 

6.4 

5.2 

0.0 

1.8 

1.4 

4.2 

6.4 

5.9 

7.1 

9.8 

15.7 

8.3 

9.3 

13.8 

10.3 

11.5 

16.5 

26.0 

57.9 

8.6 

32. VENDOR PERFORMANCE, PERCENT OF COMPANIES REPORTING SLOWER DELIVERIES 

(PERCENT REPORTING) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

91 

37 

35 

16 

54 

84 

28 

37 

21 

54 

48 

33 

28 

58 

44 

38 

56 

50 

55 

68 

74 

48 

50 

62 

56 

38 

52 

78 

85 

18 

82 

42 

34 

12 

62 

85 

22 

37 

28 

28 

62 

30 

40 

56 

52 

54 

72 

85 

51 

55 

61 

58 

44 

52 

84 

78 

34 

26 

10 

60 

74 

18 

40 

27 

66 

49 

25 

32 

62 

27 

40 

55 

54 

60 

66 

86 

38 

54 

61 

50 

46 

58 

82 

25 

36 

14 

60 

58 

19 

38 

30 

71 

50 

28 

34 

62 

28 

47 

48 

60 

60 

72 

82 

39 

52 

68 

52 

52 

58 

90 

84 

86 

20 

31 

12 

66 

46 

23 

36 

35 

70 

39 

30 

38 

62 

32 

48 

46 

58 

63 

70 

75 

36 

52 

69 

72 

53 

60 

92 

79 

81 

24 

30 

12 

64 

38 

34 

34 

36 

65 

40 

29 

38 

62 

34 

48 

42 

54 

55 

66 

69 

38 

52 

70 

69 

50 

60 

89 

76 

69 

22 

36 

22 

88 

34 

50 

30 

70 

56 

38 

44 

60 

36 

49 

44 

42 

59 

62 

70 

41 

56 

66 

50 

48 

63 

71 

25 

36 

38 

94 

38 

47 

30 

41 

72 

52 

34 

49 

62 

40 

52 

44 

48 

65 

64 

73 

43 

46 

68 

45 

49 

63 

88 

68 

36 

73 

30 

38 

53 

96 

50 

46 

25 

47 

72 

47 

32 

57 

64 

41 

55 

48 

52 

74 

62 

72 

44 

46 

66 

45 

48 

65 

90 

52 

44 

60 

31 

38 

60 

88 

50 

46 

22 

53 

72 

44 

36 

58 

64 

39 

55 

48 

48 

72 

60 

70 

50 

52 

65 

38 

50 

73 

90 

46 

49 

38 

32 

58 

87 

34 

44 

20 

52 

66 

46 

29 

58 

56 

38 

51 

48 

48 

70 

66 

64 

51 

60 

62 

36 

48 

70 

91 

32 

38 

41 

17 

50 

84 

31 

40 

20 

50 

56 

36 

25 

52 

50 

38 

53 

48 

46 

66 

72 

57 

48 

56 

64 

36 

51 

77 

84 

38 

32 

13 

59 

81 

23 

38 

24 

60 

48 

29 

29 

61 

34 

39 

56 

52 

56 

69 

82 

46 

53 

61 

55 

43 

54 

83 

87 

17 

83 

23 

32 

13 

63 

47 

25 

36 

34 

69 

43 

29 

37 

62 

31 

75 

38 

52 

69 

64 

52 

59 

90 

80 

71 

26 

37 

38 

93 

41 

48 

28 

43 

71 

52 

35 

50 

62 

39 

52 

45 

47 

63 

72 

43 

49 

67 

47 

48 

64 

89 

64 

37 

49 

37 

29 

56 

86 

38 

43 

21 

52 

65 

42 

30 

56 

57 

38 

53 

48 

47 

69 

66 

64 

50 

56 

64 

37 

50 

73 

90 

33 

NET CHANGE IN MORTGAGE DEBT HELD BY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND LIFE 

INSURANCE COMPANIES (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

13.6 8 

12.0 7 

9.9 7 

9.0 2 

12.3 2 

12.8 8 

12.0 8 

15.4 0 

19.4 2 

19.1 6 

20.8 9 

24.9 2 

9.9 0 

20.5 9 

20.9 3 

18.6 4 

26.7 2 

42.7 4 

49.6 2 

39.5 9 

28.2 5 

12.7 9 

12.7 7 

10.2 6 

8.7 6 

14.4 0 

13.4 4 

11.7 1 

16.8 5 

18.5 6 

22.8 0 

19.0 6 

21.9 8 

11.9 2 

19.1 9 

23.5 8 

15.7 1 

27.0 6 

42.4 0 

50.3 3 

41.1 1 

31.7 2 

13.3 9 

12.3 1 

10.0 3 

9.3 1 

14.7 0 

12.3 8 

12.3 0 

16.7 3 

19.3 7 

21.8 8 

20.9 3 

22.3 0 

11.3 6 

20.7 6 

21.7 6 

15.3 7 

30.2 9 

44.8 8 

53.7 0 

42.3 0 

29.6 6 

13.5 2 

12.7 7 

8.9 9 

7.2 0 

15.5 6 

12.6 4 

12.6 8 

17.5 2 

20.3 9 

21.2 4 

20.2 9 

21.2 0 

13.0 7 

19.8 6 

22.9 8 

15.6 8 

31.7 2 

45.5 4 

50.5 8 

45.1 0 

31.8 5 

14.0 8 

11.8 0 

8.5 1 

9.6 0 

16.1 2 

12.0 0 

12.8 0 

17.6 4 

21.4 4 

21.6 1 

20.7 6 

17.7 6 

15.6 2 

22.4 8 

20.3 8 

18.4 4 

33.4 8 

48.4 9 

50.3 4 

43.2 4 

34.4 9 

14.3 0 

11.6 9 

8.5 4 

9.3 0 

15.8 8 

12.1 1 

14.3 0 

17.5 6 

21.2 6 

21.0 6 

21.4 6 

13.4 5 

17.1 4 

17.4 8 

20.8 9 

19.0 3 

37.3 6 

47.0 4 

57.1 9 

39.3 0 

38.7 0 

13.6 8 

11.9 6 

8.8 1 

9.5 5 

20.7 6 

11.2 6 

14.3 5 

17.6 0 

21.7 6 

22.5 4 

21.0 0 

14.5 4 

18.2 4 

17.8 9 

17.5 3 

21.7 8 

40.8 8 

43.5 4 

51.8 2 

37.2 5 

33.8 0 

12.8 0 

11.0 4 

8.8 4 

10.7 2 

14.6 9 

12.7 0 

14.7 0 

17.8 8 

22.4 5 

20.7 4 

21.4 3 

11.5 6 

21.2 3 

17.8 6 

20.2 8 

20.2 1 

41.2 4 

51.1 3 

52.7 6 

32.3 3 

39.1 6 

12.5 2 

10.7 5 

8.9 0 

11.7 5 

14.1 6 

12.2 3 

14.8 3 

18.3 4 

22.0 9 

21.2 0 

21.7 2 

10.9 7 

20.5 4 

18.2 2 

19.6 6 

22.1 4 

40.4 2 

50.0 4 

43.6 0 

30.4 0 

47.5 4 

8.9 8 

10.5 7 

8.2 1 

13.0 7 

13.3 4 

12.1 6 

15.6 8 

20.3 6 

22.7 3 

21.5 2 

21.0 0 

10.7 4 

19.7 0 

20.0 8 

18.1 8 

22.8 7 

39.3 0 

51.5 3 

40.8 4 

29.9 4 

57.8 8 

10.9 6 

11.2 4 

8.1 8 

13.9 1 

12.7 8 

11.0 8 

16.5 6 

19.6 2 

20.1 6 

21.6 6 

21.5 4 

8.6 8 

21.1 0 

21.1 6 

19.7 3 

21.5 9 

39.8 6 

55.3 0 

41.0 3 

25.7 8 

44.4 5 

11.9 0 

10.3 9 

8.4 7 

13.7 4 

11.6 5 

10.8 0 

16.9 0 

19.7 8 

22.9 1 

21.5 4 

21.8 0 

6.8 2 

19.2 6 

24.0 6 

12.0 1 

22.9 6 

43.3 1 

60.3 0 

34.6 7 

19.8 7 

48.3 6 

13.2 9 

12.3 8 

10.0 9 

9.0 3 

13.8 1 

12.9 0 

12.0 3 

16.3 3 

19.1 2 

21.2 8 

20.2 9 

23.0 7 

11.0 6 

20.1 8 

22.0 9 

16.5 7 

28.0 2 

43.3 4 

51.2 2 

41.0 0 

29.8 8 

13.9 7 

12.0 9 

8.6 8 

8.7 0 

15.8 5 

12.2 5 

13.2 6 

17.5 7 

21.0 3 

21.3 0 

20.8 4 

17.4 7 

15.2 8 

19.9 4 

21.4 2 

17.7 2 

34.1 9 

47.0 2 

52.7 0 

42.5 5 

35.0 1 

13.0 0 

11.2 5 

8.8 5 

10.6 7 

16.5 4 

12.0 6 

14.6 3 

17.9 4 

22.1 0 

21.4 9 

21.3 8 

12.3 6 

20.0 0 

17.9 9 

19.1 6 

21.3 8 

40.8 5 

48.2 4 

49.3 9 

33.3 3 

40.1 7 

10.6 1 

10.7 3 

8.2 9 

13.5 7 

12.5 9 

11.3 5 

16.3 8 

19.9 2 

21.9 3 

21.5 7 

21.4 5 

8.7 5 

20.0 2 

21.7 7 

16.6 4 

22.4 7 

40.8 2 

55.7 1 

38.8 5 

25.2 0 

50.2 3 

86 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1*45.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

194b . . . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

195b.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

196b.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

194b.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. 

3 6 . NET CHANGE 

8.9 3 

5.6 8 

54.8 2 

7.7 3 

51.0 5 

1-20.6 6 

1 2.6 0 

12.0 6 

-2.8 4 

-25.5 1 

9.3 6 

-7.4 4 

-9.1 9 

17.9 9 

3.2 5 

5.1 0 

28.1 0 

14.9 6 

12.9 8 

2.5 9 

2.1 8 

-17.0 0 

8.9 2 

6.8 0 

28.6 7 

11.3 8 

-35.3 6 

-0.6 7 

-4.4 5 

2.6 3 

35.4 6 

-2.1 6 

4.9 8 

-12.5 3 

5.3 0 

11.7 1 

-2.9 9 

-25.0 4 

26.3 9 

-0.4 3 

-5.7 0 

10.0 2 

8.8 1 

6.6 0 

10.5 1 

23.5 7 

5.8 4 

3.9 0 

9.0 4 

1.3 0 

12.1 2 

4.5 5 

24.5 2 

14.5 2 

-45.8 4 

3 6 . NET CHANGE 

-4i6 0 

-7.0 0 

21.9 7 

11,2 6 

13.7 7 

-20.2 6 

0.9 8 

9.9 7 

0.7 0 

-14.1 2 

10.1 3 

7.2 1 

-9.1 2 

13.2 1 

0.9 9 

5.0 1 

16.3 8 

13.0 8 

12.5 6 

13.9 2 

11.7 6 

-2.2 4 

3.7 6 

3.9 9 

16.3 8 

21.9 6 

-18.9 9 

2,03 4 

2,59 6 

4,02 6 

2,30 5 

1,97 2 

1,83 9 

3,07 7 

3,15 7 

2,66 6 

2,79 6 

3,87 5 

4,06 8 

3,61 5 

4,67 1 

4,08 1 

4,07 4 

4,02 9 

3,57 2 

2,98 8 

2,96 8 

2,87 8 

2,71 8 

3,21 3 

4,96 8 

4,96 6 

4,24 6 

4,51 9 

7,28 0 

-2.1 5 

-3.2 6 

30.9 1 

8.3 3 

20.9 1 

-18.1 5 

1.8 6 

10.6 2 

-0.7 6 

-16.6 6 

14.2 1 

3.9 5 

-9.5 0 

14.6 2 

2.4 7 

4.1 5 

19.1 4 

16.4 1 

10.6 0 

12.3 2 

9.5 1 

-4.8 6 

7.7 8 

5.4 5 

20.7 2 

19.2 9 

-27.7 6 

2,32 8 

2,84 9 

3,93 6 

2,11 7 

1,95 7 

1,63 6 

3,33 1 

2,96 9 

2,60 6 

2,62 2 

4,30 3 

3,96 5 

3,32 9 

4,83 2 

3,87 1 

4,23 8 

3,93 2 

3,73 0 

2,82 0 

2,91 5 

3,00 1 

2,69 2 

3,44 8 

4,87 7 

4,87 6 

4,37 8 

4,62 9 

7,36 2 

Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 

IN INVENTORIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER IN 197 2 DOLLARS, MONTHLY DATA 

4.1 3 

-4.5 6 

7.8 4 

37.3 6 

15.4 3 

-0.5 9 

-19.9 0 

16.2 8 

-0.1 9 

-6.0 0 

-12.7 8 

22.2 7 

-7.9 4 

-2.8 9 

6.4 0 

13.3 2 

8.2 3 

13.7 4 

28.6 8 

1.5 6 

-0.9 8 

9.4 9 

2.5 6 

6.9 1 

3.9 6 

23.8 1 

4.8 8 

-38.5 3 

(ANNUAL 

0.6 8 

-8.5 6 

5.6 3 

34.2 5 

11.7 6 

10.7 2 

-16.0 2 

-2.9 4 

16.5 4 

1.3 3 

-9.0 1 

23.8 0 

-13.7 4 

6.5 6 

-9.4 4 

12.5 5 

12.8 2 

4.7 5 

20.5 8 

8.8 3 

9.5 5 

11.4 8 

5.0 3 

-2.1 6 

6.8 8 

20.9 5 

-2.0 3 

-31.3 1 

RATE, BILLIONS 

-0.0 2 

-3.8 4 

19.8 6 

32.7 4 

2.2 3 

4.8 4 

-13.2 1 

8.9 9 

7.3 2 

-3.1 2 

-2.8 4 

3.6 2 

-0.5 3 

11.5 7 

8.7 6 

6.2 9 

8.2 0 

12.3 1 

25.1 4 

1.6 6 

9.6 2 

12.5 2 

-8.7 1 

-2.4 2 

17.4 5 

35.3 2 

21.4 2 

-28.7 5 

11.6 0 

-10.7 6 

14.0 3 

22.6 3 

26.8 2 

1.7 6 

-15.6 5 

16.0 0 

5.2 1 

-5.2 9 

2.2 0 

4.9 6 

-5.3 4 

4.1 9 

3.3 5 

0.8 9 

13.2 8 

11.3 0 

26.6 5 

-0.2 2 

6.1 1 

15.3 0 

10.7 9 

-3.7 3 

11.2 0 

29.1 0 

22.3 3 

-19.4 3 

OF DOLLARS) 

9.8 5 

0.4 4 

11.3 8 

19.6 7 

6.7 8 

-11.8 7 

-15.5 8 

10.0 3 

17.4 6 

-10.1 2 

2.0 6 

12.2 4 

-1.3 7 

7.6 2 

6.3 0 

0.9 4 

11.1 6 

14.8 2 

20.5 8 

18.5 0 

-8.1 0 

16.1 3 

7.0 6 

-6.9 0 

6.1 6 

25.5 2 

-0.9 0 

-3.3 7 

-9.6 1 

1.8 4 

45.1 1 

12.4 3 

-3.4 3 

-18.9 7 

-13.9 3 

7.9 4 

10.7 3 

-3.8 9 

-0.2 3 

5.2 6 

-6.0 8 

8.5 9 

4.7 5 

6.0 0 

11.8 1 

8.6 2 

17.9 0 

16.4 8 

7.0 7 

8.4 7 

3.8 0 

2.5 4 

23.8 4 

15.9 5 

-10.3 3 

2.0 5 

-4.9 1 

9.6 4 

19.2 0 

3.6 1 

13.0 6 

-21.3 0 

2.2 2 

1.1 9 

4.7 9 

-1.9 7 

8.9 3 

2.3 9 

0.5 4 

6.3 7 

6.4 1 

6.4 9 

28.7 2 

3.0 6 

12.6 6 

5.5 7 

14.4 6 

12.7 2 

-4.3 2 

7.0 4 

20.7 6 

23.9 5 

7.2 0 

-7.0 1 

-5.1 8 

-6.3 8 

16.8 4 

11.5 2 

9.9 5 

-23.8 2 

2.6 2 

14.3 3 

-1.1 0 

-24.4 6 

3.5 9 

9.3 6 

-10.3 1 

4.0 1 

7.9 8 

10.7 5 

4.6 9 

7.7 0 

20.9 0 

2.3 5 

13.9 4 

7.2 6 

-9.4 2 

5.7 5 

14.7 6 

20.6 b 

-5.2 9 

8.0 6 

Nov. 

-5.0 2 

-7.7 5 

19.8 4 

11.6 3 

3.2 4 

-22.0 2 

0.0 1 

5.5 1 

4.0 1 

-10.8 7 

7.6 4 

2.2 9 

-2.2 9 

15.5 0 

-4.7 5 

6.0 7 

17.3 5 

10.8 8 

9.6 8 

13.7 5 

10.8 1 

-7.2 1 

6.3 6 

-3.2 0 

12.4 3 

21.2 3 

-21.4 8 

-11.9 3 

IN INVENTORIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER IN 197 2 DOLLARS, SMOOTHED DATA ' 

-l!0 4 

1.9 3 

38.0 3 

6.5 1 

19.8 4 

-17.1 3 

5.4 0 

9.7 6 

-2.9 3 

-20.0 7 

18.3 4 

-0.8 9 

-8.0 0 

12.5 9 

6.5 9 

5.4 4 

17.7 3 

20.4 6 

8.3 8 

6.2 6 

8.0 6 

-3.9 1 

9.0 3 

5.9 2 

24.2 0 

14.2 2 

-35.3 8 

3 7 . NU 

2,39 9 

3,03 0 

3,87 6 

2,12 5 

1,81 3 

1,64 7 

3,60 7 

2,91 8 

2,76 4 

2,50 9 

4,49 2 

3,80 1 

3,72 6 

4,85 3 

3,92 1 

4,07 2 

3,95 0 

3,51 0 

2,88 7 

2,88 9 

2,87 7 

2,71 2 

3,62 8 

4,95 6 

4,98 1 

4,30 8 

4,52 0 

7,77 7 

(ANNUAL 

-2!9 4 

5.3 7 

39.1 2 

7.6 7 

11.7 6 

-16.9 2 

7.1 4 

8.6 1 

-3.2 5 

-18.3 6 

21.7 5 

-6.3 2 

-3.3 0 

6.9 0 

10.0 1 

7.9 3 

13.5 6 

23.3 4 

6.1 0 

3.0 0 

8.4 5 

-0.7 1 

7.4 7 

5.1 2 

24.3 8 

8.0 2 

-38.5 1 

RATE, BILLIONS 

l!4 9 

-5.7 5 

8.2 4 

35.2 4 

9.0 7 

5.0 1 

-16.2 6 

6.8 3 

8.6 2 

-2.5 7 

-11.9 1 

20.3 6 

-7.3 9 

2.2 0 

2.1 2 

11.1 4 

9.4 8 

9.9 7 

24.5 4 

4.7 1 

5.1 1 

10.5 8 

1.2 9 

3.2 0 

7.2 8 

24.8 9 

6.9 4 

-35.7 1 

2.8 4 

-6.6 9 

12.1 4 

32.3 3 

11.7 0 

5.3 8 

-15.6 7 

7.4 0 

8.7 9 

-2.4 8 

-5.7 1 

13.6 8 

-6.9 7 

6.2 6 

1.4 0 

8.6 5 

10.5 9 

9.8 6 

24.4 6 

3.7 2 

7.2 4 

12.1 3 

1.0 0 

-1.0 0 

10.6 4 

27.5 7 

11.0 0 

-29.6 8 

MBER OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYE 

2,38 6 

3,26 0 

3,57 5 

1,91 9 

1,81 1 

1,72 3 

3,74 9 

3,04 9 

2,65 0 

2,60 0 

5,01 6 

3,57 1 

3,62 0 

4,89 3 

3,90 6 

4,05 5 

3,91 8 

3,59 5 

2,82 8 

2,89 5 

2,70 9 

2,75 8 

3,79 6 

4,92 6 

4,90 2 

4,37 7 

4,49 2 

7,96 4 

(THOUSANDS) 

2,11 8 

3,70 7 

3,43 4 

1,85 6 

1,86 3 

1,59 6 

3,76 7 

2,74 7 

2,86 1 

2,71 0 

5,02 1 

3,47 9 

3,56 9 

5,00 3 

3,86 3 

4,21 7 

3,76 4 

3,43 2 

2,95 0 

2,92 9 

2,74 0 

2,71 3 

3,91 3 

4,95 6 

4,87 6 

4,26 8 

4,62 2 

8,31 4 

2,21 4 

3,77 6 

3,36 7 

1,99 5 

1,88 4 

1,60 7 

3,55 1 

2,70 1 

2,88 2 

2,85 6 

4,94 4 

3,42 9 

3,76 6 

4,88 5 

3,84 4 

3,97 7 

3,81 4 

3,38 7 

2,87 2 

2,99 2 

2,93 8 

2,81 6 

4,01 6 

4,91 5 

4,88 0 

4,30 1 

4,84 6 

8,09 9 

OF DOLLARS) 

5.6 1 

-6.2 2 

14.1 3 

27.4 4 

12.7 7 

2.0 1 

-14.8 9 

9.5 1 

9.8 4 

-4.2 7 

-1.3 7 

8.8 7 

-4.4 7 

7.6 2 

3.5 1 

4.6 4 

11.1 6 

11.1 3 

24.1 2 

5.0 3 

5.4 8 

13.8 7 

2.7 1 

-3.5 6 

11.7 2 

29.2 2 

14.0 9 

-21.8 4 

D, LABOR 

2,21 3 

4,11 1 

3,12 0 

1,95 0 

1,99 1 

1,66 0 

3,65 9 

2,63 2 

2,95 2 

2,79 6 

5,07 9 

3,52 8 

3,83 6 

4,92 8 

3,81 9 

4,05 1 

3,60 8 

3,30 1 

2,87 6 

2,94 4 

2,88 3 

2,86 8 

4,18 0 

5,01 5 

4,87 7 

4,25 1 

4,99 2 

8,06 1 

5.5 4 

-3.7 7 

19.3 0 

21.6 3 

11.0 0 

-5.7 2 

-14.9 3 

11.5 0 

10.5 6 

-6.3 0 

0.9 1 

7.2 1 

-3.3 4 

7.3 0 

5.4 7 

2.6 6 

11.4 8 

12.1 9 

22.9 2 

9.1 2 

2.1 2 

13.9 7 

5.1 3 

-3.5 2 

12.6 7 

26.7 5 

8.9 9 

-12.0 5 

l!l 9 

0.5 7 

24.3 7 

15.0 7 

7.7 6 

-13.5 4 

-12.0 7 

8.8 5 

11.0 6 

-5.8 8 

2.4 6 

7.0 6 

-3.2 8 

7.1 6 

5.3 1 

3.5 4 

14.6 6 

10.2 1 

19.3 8 

12.5 5 

3.0 8 

12.8 7 

4.7 0 

-0.9 0 

15.3 3 

22.6 6 

1.1 8 

-4.8 5 

FORCE SURVEY 

2,35 0 

4,19 3 

2,79 9 

1,93 3 

2,08 7 

1,66 5 

3,85 4 

2,78 4 

2,70 1 

2,74 7 

5,02 5 

3,58 8 

3,94 6 

4,68 2 

4,01 3 

3,87 8 

3,65 5 

3,25 4 

2,90 0 

2,94 5 

2,76 8 

2,85 6 

4,25 2 

5,13 2 

4,91 2 

4,26 4 

4,97 6 

7,92 1 

2,30 2 

4,04 9 

2,77 4 

2,06 7 

1,93 6 

1,82 1 

3,92 7 

2,67 8 

2,63 5 

2,94 3 

4,82 1 

3,77 5 

3,88 4 

4,67 6 

3,96 1 

3,95 7 

3,71 2 

3,21 6 

2,79 8 

2,95 8 

2,68 6 

3,04 0 

4,45 4 

5,03 2 

4,83 3 

4,33 2 

5,43 9 

8,01 1 

-4.0 6 

2.8 4 

26.1 4 

10.5 4 

6.0 0 

-19.3 7 

-6.0 6 

7.1 0 

7.9 0 

-7.7 2 

3.8 4 

6.1 5 

-3.7 9 

6.9 2 

6.1 0 

6.1 1 

16.1 5 

7.6 5 

17.1 0 

10.8 2 

8.1 5 

10.9 6 

-0.5 7 

3.0 0 

18.3 5 

21.0 0 

-2.0 7 

-0.8 7 

2,25 9 

4,91 6 

2,62 5 

2,19 4 

1,83 9 

1,97 4 

3,66 6 

2,83 0 

2,57 1 

3,02 0 

4,57 0 

3,91 0 

4,25 2 

4,57 3 

3,80 3 

3,98 7 

3,72 6 

3,14 3 

2,79 8 

3,14 3 

2,68 9 

3,04 9 

4,63 7 

5,00 1 

4,92 4 

4,16 3 

5,58 0 

8,04 8 

-5.8 0 

0.1 0 

22.8 4 

9.0 5 

7.6 4 

-21.8 7 

-0.7 1 

7.4 1 

3.6 9 

-11.2 7 

5.4 1 

5.1 7 

-4.6 5 

7.4 7 

4.8 0 

7.7 6 

16.0 0 

6.8 4 

15.7 8 

7.6 8 

12.4 5 

6.8 7 

-2.8 9 

4.1 5 

17.8 8 

21.0 7 

-4.6 6 

-1.3 0 

2,28 5 

3,99 6 

2,58 9 

2,17 8 

1,74 3 

2,21 1 

3,40 2 

2,78 0 

2,86 1 

3,45 4 

4,18 8 

4,00 3 

4,33 0 

4,29 5 

4,02 4 

4,15 1 

3,55 1 

3,07 3 

2,77 0 

3,06 6 

2,71 5 

2,85 6 

4,88 5 

5,14 1 

4,55 7 

4,34 2 

6,10 6 

7,81 3 

Dec. 

-10.6 6 

-12.8 9 

10.2 5 

12.5 2 

7.5 6 

-16.5 1 

0.3 2 

11.2 0 

0.0 5 

-6.5 2 

16.2 7 

18.3 7 

-15.3 2 

13.1 2 

2.1 2 

1.0 3 

15.4 0 

17.0 4 

11.0 6 

25.5 5 

16.4 2 

5.3 6 

5.1 7 

8.8 9 

15.0 1 

28.6 2 

-15.1 7 

-17.4 4 

-5.9 9 

-5.2 5 

17.1 3 

10.4 0 

7.8 3 

-21.5 8 

1.3 0 

8.6 8 

1.7 8 

-13.1 9 

7.9 4 

7.3 4 

-6.6 6 

9.7 5 

2.5 0 

6.8 6 

14.7 0 

9.5 4 

14.1 5 

10.5 5 

13.4 0 

3.0 3 

-0.8 8 

3.5 0 

15.0 2 

22.7 2 

-10.2 5 

-5.3 6 

2,42 9 

4,06 3 

2,63 9 

1,96 0 

1,66 7 

2,81 8 

3,19 6 

2,76 1 

2,79 0 

3,47 6 1 

4,19 1 1 

3,65 3 

4,61 7 

4,17 7 

3,90 7 

3,97 5 

3,65 1 

3,03 1 

2,91 2 

3,01 8 

2,68 5 

2,88 4 

5,05 6 

5,11 2 

4,47 8 

4,41 7 

6,56 4 

7,70 5 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

-0.0 3 

5.3 8 

42.5 5 

7.0 0 

lb.4 8 

-17.7 0 

8.0 6 

7.b 6 

-3.9 4 

-21.1 1 

19.3 4 

-5.2 7 

-5.9 3 

11.4 7 

8.4 6 

6.6 4 

17.4 5 

22.4 0 

6.7 9 

1.8 4 

6.9U 

-4.3 8 

9.3 2 

5.1 0 

25.6 7 

10.2 6 

-39.9 1 

-2.b 0 

-2.7 7 

30.3 0 

8.7 0 

18.1 7 

-18.5 1 

2.7 5 

10.1 2 

-1.0 0 

-lb.9 5 

14.2 3 

3.4 2 

-8.8 7 

13.4 7 

3.3 5 

4.8 7 

17.7 5 

16.6 5 

10.5 1 

10.8 3 

9.7 8 

-3.6 7 

6.8 5 

5.1 2 

20.4 3 

18.4 9 

-27.3 8 

2,25 4 

2,82 5 

3,94 6 

2,18 2 

1,91 4 

1,70 7 

3,33 8 

3,01 5 

2,67 9 

2,64 2 

4,22 3 

3,94 5 

3,55 7 

4,78 5 

3,95 8 

4,12 8 

3,97 0 

3,60 4 

2,89 8 

2,92 4 

2,91 9 

2,70 7 

3,43 0 

4,93 4 

4,94 1 

4,31 1 

4,55 6 

7,47 3 

II Q III Q IV Q 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

4.0 9 

-7.7 2 

13.1 7 

29.8 7 

13.6 0 

5.7 7 

-14.9 6 

7.3 5 

9.6 9 

-2.3 6 

-3.2 2 

10.7 9 

-6.5 4 

7.4 4 

0.8 9 

6.5 8 

11.4 3 

9.4 5 

24.1 2 

3.4 2 

8.4 3 

13.1 0 

2.3 7 

-2.7 7 

11.8 4 

28.4 6 

13.9 1 

-26.5 0 

-1.5 6 

3.9 7 

25.2 3 

11.9 0 

5.4 7 

-17.3 8 

-9.1 0 

6.3 9 

10.9 9 

-5.3 3 

3.5 9 

6.6 3 

-2.3 0 

7.5 3 

5.8 2 

4.4 8 

17.2 3 

8.8 3 

17.0 5 

13.5 2 

4.4 8 

12.4 4 

2.1 8 

0.8 9 

16.9 2 

21.8 1 

-1.3 4 

-2.7 8 

-6.9 5 

-9.0 1 

15.6 4 

11.8 9 

6.9 2 

-20.7 8 

0.9 8 

10.3 5 

0.9 9 

-13.9 5 

9.1 7 

10.0 1 

-9.3 1 

10.8 8 

1.7 8 

5.9 5 

12.4 8 

11.8 7 

13.8 8 

13.8 8 

13.7 2 

1.8 0 

0.7 0 

3.8 1 

14.0 7 

23.5 0 

-13.9 8 

-7.1 0 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

-5.1 3 

8.5 8 

35.5 6 

9.4 8 

7.3 8 

-16.2 8 

7.1 2 

8.6 7 

-2.7 7 

-11.9 9 

18.5 9 

-6.8 9 

1.7 2 

3.4 7 

9.9 3 

9.3 4 

11.1 3 

24.1 1 

4.8 4 

5.1 2 

10.3 9 

0.5 3 

3.2 2 

7.6 8 

25.6 2 

8.6 5 

-34.6 3 

4.1 2 

-3.1 4 

19.2 7 

21.3 8 

10.5 1 

-5.7 5 

-13.9 6 

9.9 6 

10.4 9 

-5.4 8 

0.6 7 

7.7 1 

-3.7 0 

7.3 6 

4.7 6 

3.6 1 

12.4 3 

11.1 8 

22.1 4 

8.9 0 

3.5 6 

13.5 7 

4.1 8 

-2.6 6 

13.2 4 

26.2 1 

8.0 9 

-12.9 1 

-5.2 9 

-0.7 7 

22.0 4 

10.0 0 

7.1 6 

-20.9 4 

-1.8 2 

7.7 3 

4.4 5 

-10.7 3 

5.7 3 

6.2 2 

-5.0 4 

8.0 5 

4.4 6 

6.9 1 

15.6 2 

8.0 1 

15.6 8 

9.6 8 

11.3 3 

6.9 5 

-1.4 4 

3.5 5 

17.0 9 

21.6 0 

-5.6 6 

-2.5 1 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

2,23 9 

3,58 1 

3,45 9 

1,92 3 

1,85 3 

1,64 2 

3,68 9 

2,83 2 

2,79 8 

2,72 2 

4,99 4 

3,49 3 

3,65 2 

4,92 7 

3,87 1 

4,08 3 

3,83 2 

3,47 1 

2,88 3 

2,93 9 

2,79 6 

2,76 2 

3,90 8 

4,93 2 

4,88 6 

4,31 5 

4,65 3 

8,12 6 

2,28 8 

4,11 8 

2,89 8 

1,98 3 

2,00 5 

1,71 5 

3,81 3 

2,69 8 

2,76 3 

2,82 9 

4,97 5 

3,63 0 

3,88 9 

4,76 2 

3,93 1 

3,96 2 

3,65 8 

3,25 7 

2,85 8 

2,94 9 

2,77 9 

2,92 1 

4,29 5 

5,06 0 

4,87 4 

4,28 2 

5,13 6 

7,99 8 

2,32 4 

4,32 5 

2,61 8 

2,11 1 

1,75 0 

2,33 4 

3,42 1 

2,79 0 

2,74 1 

3,31 7 

4,31 6 

3,85 5 

4,40 0 

4,34 8 

3,91 1 

4,03 8 

3,64 3 

3,08 2 

2,82 7 

3,07 6 

2,69 6 

2,93 0 

4,85 9 

5,08 5 

4,65 3 

4,30 7 

6,08 3 

7,85 5 

Annual 

| -3il9 

14.8 6 

24.0 5 

8.2 5 

-3.4 8 

-10.1 9 

8.0 4 

7.3 8 

-6.3 9 

-2.8 9 

11.6 9 

-5.8 5 

4.9 8 

4.9 9 

6.3 7 

11.9 5 

11.9 0 

19.3 6 

9.4 0 

7.1 2 

8.5 6 

0.2 2 

2.8 1 

11.9 8 

24.8 6 

2.2 1 

-19.0 7 

-2.9 1 

11.7 8 

24.3 1 

8.9 6 

-0.2 8 

-12.6 5 

6.8 9 

1 8.43 

1 -4.9 9 

-5.6 4 

11.6 9 

-3.0 5 

2.0 6 

6.5 4 

5.9 5 

10.5 6 

12.0 2 

19.6 5 

8.4 9 

7.7 1 

10.1 7 

-0.1 0 

2.7 4 

10.7 8 

23.4 6 

7.3 9 

-19.3 6 

2,27 8 

3,63 6 

3,28 9 

2,05 4 

1,88 4 

1,83 6 

3,53 3 

2,85 3 

2,75 2 

2,85 9 

4,60 1 

3,73 9 

3,85 2 

4,71 4 

3,91 2 

4,07 1 

3,78 5 

3,36 5 

2,87 8 

2,97 7 

2,81 6 

2,83 2 

4,08 8 

4,99 4 

4,84 0 

4,30 6 

5,07 6 

7,83 0 

'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949.. . 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. 

38. CHANGE Ih 

o!l7 

-1.40 -1.06 

0.86 0.56 

0.67 0.41 

-0.49 -0.09 

-1.30 -0.84 

0.40 1.13 

-0.99 -0.81 

-0.14 -0.41 

0.85 0.13 

0.52 0.29 

0.20 0.04 

0.62 0.63 

0.71 1.09 

0.58 0.12 

0.66 0.40 

0.30 0.08 

-0.94 -0.49 

0.72 0.15 

0.42 0.63 

2.17 2.13 

2.96 3.12 

-1.84 -1.70 

Mar. Apr. May 

STOCKS OF MATERIALS AND 

ol 16 

-1.48 

1.12 

0.18 

-0.43 

-0.42 

1.03 

-0.97 

-0.07 

-0.13 

0.56 

0.29 

0.59 

1.48 

-0.25 

-0.05 

0.62 

-0.15 

0.06 

0.46 

2.92 

2.42 

-2.88 

39. PERCENT OF CO 

2.31 2.11 

2.22 2.81 

2.70 2.73 

2.20 2.08 

2.03 1.91 

1.87 1.83 

2.05 2.07 

1.61 1.62 

1.52 1.46 

1.50 1.50 

1.57 1.63 

1.56 1.55 

1.71 1.60 

1.81 1.84 

1.69 1.69 

1.59 1.60 

1.69 1.68 

1.79 

1.75 

1.86 

1.57 

1.57 

1.83 

1.81 

1.72 

2.01 

2.54 

2.59 2.71 

2.49 

2.85 

2.38 

2.10 

2.05 

1.90 

1.98 

1.53 

1.53 

1.57 

1.76 

1.52 

1.60 

1.81 

1.69 

1.64 

1.66 

2'.94 

4 0. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES I 

19,025 18,970 

16,058 15,333 

18,428 18,479 

18,876 18,707 

18,362 18,193 

17,351 17,097 

19,805 19,930 

19,998 20,073 

21,056 21,220 

20,177 20,116 

19,782 19,939 

20,953 21,044 

21,164 21,244 

20,152 19,695 

20,020 20,080 

20,751 20,862 

19,638 19,530 

20,076 20,262 

i 20,417 20,379 

20,558 20,771 

21,414 21,481 

22,555 22,690 

23,450 23,353 

23,290 23,481 

24,078 24,166 

24,175 24,121 

22,878 22,729 

23,124 23,131 

24,218 24,433 

25,028 25,020 

23,241 22,699 

AND C 

18,880 

16,133 

18,461 

18,780 

17,966 

17,558 

20,024 

20,037 

21,271 

19,988 

20,157 

20,994 

21,242 

19,476 

20,276 

20,601 

19,581 

20,278 

20,391 

20,780 

21,549 

22,877 

23,279 

23,493 

24,239 

24,114 

22,725 

23,273 

24,539 

24,974 

22,452 

(BILLIONS 

-0.08 0.38 

-1.05 -0.93 

0.38 0.48 

0.97 0.26 

-0.62 -0.24 

-0.33 -0.30 

0.72 0.16 

-0.75 -0.58 

0.24 0.30 

-0.51 -0.08 

0.85 0.49 

0.32 0.44 

0.23 0.56 

1.03 1.05 

0.32 0.13 

0.09 0.06 

0.82 0.86 

-0.19 0.02 

-0.33 -0.56 

0.25 1.02 

1.89 3.04 

2.61 4.65 

-3.41 -1.40 

June 

SUPPLIES 

July 

ON HAND 

OF DOLLARS) 

-o!28 

-0.66 

0.52 

-0.22 

-0.50 

0.23 

0.58 

-0.44 

0.10 

-0.20 

-0.22 

0.46 

0.39 

1.29 

0.54 

-0.48 

0.29 

0.04 

-1.08 

0.71 

2.38 

3.64 

-1.81 

NSUMER INSTALLMENT LOANS 

(PERCENT) 

2.34 2i21 

2.70 2.80 

2.45 2.43 

2.31 2.09 

1.98 2.08 

1.75 1.88 

1.99 1.94 

1.55 1.55 

1.54 1.49 

1.47 1.46 

1.70 1.74 

1.50 1.49 

1.64 1.64 

1.85 1.83 

1.67 1.64 

1.59 1.57 

1.59 1.68 

1.69 

1.75 

1.87 

1.59 

1.63 

1.80 

1.72 

1.76 

2.01 

2.56 

2.74 2.65 

2.29 

2.91 

2.22 

2.06 

2.25 

1.82 

1.91 

1.50 

1.51 

1.52 

1.75 

1.43 

1.68 

1.79 

1.65 

1.68 

1.63 

1.76 

1.76 

1.72 

1.56 

1.64 

1.79 

1.78 

1.85 

1.99 

2.61 

2.63 

N NONAGRICULTORAL GOODS-P 

ONSTRUCTION, ESTABLISHMEN 

18,612 18,384 

16,574 16,979 

18,413 18,346 

18,465 18,635 

17,765 17,539 

17,807 18,193 

20,081 20,058 

20,062 20,015 

21,287 21,269 

19,836 19,688 

20,327 20,489 

21,095 21,093 

21,158 21,093 

19,235 19,126 

20,474 20,599 

20,684 20,614 

19,594 19,706 

20,480 20,471 

20,569 20,634 

20,830 20,871 

21,599 21,722 

22,958 23,030 

23,244 23,175 

23,610 23,648 

24,247 24,293 

23,937 23,652 

22,811 22,874 

23,381 23,491 

24,600 24,661 

24,985 24,949 

22,372 22,379 

18,117 

17,260 

18,371 

18,768 

17,385 

18,419 

20,066 

19,606 

21,248 

19,623 

20,609 

21,159 

21,049 

19,129 

20,714 

20,498 

19,838 

20,429 

20,598 

20,915 

21,816 

23,207 

23,156 

23,674 

24,395 

23,564 

22,807 

23,570 

24,785 

24,913 

22,279 

-0.95 

-0.77 

0.80 

1.12 

-0.91 

0.17 

0.0 

-0.48 

0.37 

-0.15 

0.06 

0.62 

0.40 

1.03 

0.79 

-0.57 

0.48 

-0.49 

-0.29 

1.03 

1.80 

3.26 

-0.58 

Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 

AND ON ORDER, MANUFACTURING 

-l".24 

-0.69 

0.65 

1.04 

-0.98 

0.07 

0.02 

0.13 

0.79 

-0.12 

-0.05 

0.52 

0.27 

1.26 

0.77 

0.35 

0.05 

-0.28 

-0.01 

1.38 

2.18 

3.00 

-0.92 

-l!84 

0.14 

0.86 

0.04 

-0.58 

0.11 

0.50 

0.01 

-0.01 

0.15 

0.31 

1.06 

0.69 

0.28 

0.48 

0.24 

0.50 

-0.18 

-0.21 

1.17 

2.33 

1.84 

-0.75 

-l!73 -1.08 

0.56 -0.18 

1.07 0.71 

0.24 0.22 

-0.93 -0.92 

0.05 0.49 

0.23 0.22 

-0.70 -0.28 

-0.02 0.29 

-0.06 -0.05 

0.31 -0.09 

1.14 0.78 

0.80 0.53 

0.31 0.10 

0.29 0.51 

0.46 0.45 

0.58 -0.42 

-0.26 0.38 

0.31 0.22 

0.81 1.25 

2.67 2.27 

-0.36 0.10 

0.12 0.24 

DELINQUENT 30 DAYS AND OVER 

2.17 

2.91 

2.17 

2.17 

2.19 

1.83 

1.86 

1.49 

1.51 

1.50 

1.71 

1.36 

1.73 

1.83 

1.61 

1.68 

1.63 

i\lh 

RODUCING 

T SURVEY 

17,748 

17,531 

18,267 

18,874 

17,320 

18,635 

19,992 

19,433 

21,244 

19,455 

20,607 

20,577 

20,981 

19,165 

20,752 

20,398 

19,842 

20,477 

20,651 

20,989 

21,905 

23,267 

23,190 

23,721 

24,446 

23,524 

22,771 

23,478 

24,788 

24,830 

22,294 

2.22 

2.55 

2.26 

2.11 

2.14 

2.01 

1.83 

1.44 

1.53 

1.48 

1.75 

1.52 

1.70 

1.80 

1.61 

1.67 

1.71 

1.82 

1.76 

1.64 

1.55 

1.68 

1.87 

1.75 

1.93 

2.02 

2.63 

2.65 

... 

2.20 

2.69 

2.30 

2.09 

1.99 

1.97 

1.81 

1.47 

1.54 

1.54 

1.63 

1.56 

1.71 

1.76 

1.63 

1.73 

1.65 

... 

... 

2'.59 

INDUSTRIES—MINI 

(THOUSANDS) 

17,415 

17,827 

18,409 

18,770 

17,342 

19,032 

19,867 

20,087 

21,101 

19,415 

20,642 

21,111 

20,914 

19,275 

20,242 

20,326 

19,929 

20,491 

20,664 

21,032 

21,986 

23,346 

23,229 

23,758 

24,438 

23,393 

22,718 

23,592 

24,810 

24,765 

22,493 

15,530 

18,049 

18,491 

18,843 

17,431 

19,157 

19,767 

20,428 

20,967 

19,470 

20,653 

21,114 

20,812 

19,466 

20,210 

20,227 

19,890 

20,508 

20,705 

21,173 

22,091 

23,307 

23,162 

23,803 

24,442 

23,309 

22,860 

23,665 

24,822 

24,672 

22,658 

2.40 

2.23 2.37 

2.70 2.69 

2.23 1.97 

2.05 2.23 

1.99 1.85 

1.97 2.02 

1.84 1.79 

1.47 1.44 

1.48 1.49 

1.51 1.55 

1.60 1.60 

1.67 1.75 

1.79 1.78 

1.70 1.67 

1.61 1.63 

1.65 1.79 

1.71 

1.81 

1.77 

1.67 

1.48 

1.68 

1.85 

1.90 

2.00 

2.11 

2.65 

2.48 2.29 

Dec. 

-1.25 

0.09 

1.20 

0.34 

-1.17 

0.20 

0.15 

-0.61 

1.17 

0.03 

0.0 

0.65 

0.96 

-0.05 

0.80 

0.56 

-0.20 

0.36 

0.51 

1.09 

2.89 

-0.16 

-0.47 

2 M0 

2.02 

2.67 

2.09 

2.15 

1.92 

1.98 

1.65 

1.50 

1.52 

1.57 

1.55 

1.65 

1.76 

1.68 

1.64 

1.76! 

1.70 

1.65 

1.741 

1.69 

1.63 

1.76 

1.90 

1.72 

1.96 

2.27 

2.80 

2.47 

NG, MANUFACTURING 

15,557 15,708 

18,185 18,323 

18,606 18,662 

18,775 18,761 

16,711 17,093 

19,367 19,469 

19,766 19,828 

20,549 20,759 

20,834 20,605 

19,494 19,649 

20,756 20,819 

21,193 21,160 

20,703 20,491 

19,379 19,766 

20,071 20,291 

20,104 19,967 

19,957 20,097 

20,503 20,461 

20,726 20,657 

20,945 21,266 

22,177 22,338 

23,349 23,395 

23,151 23,404 

23,832 23,931 

24,405 24,265 

22,778 22,624 

22,795 22,900 

23,858 23,956 

24,915 25,032 

24,521 24,171 

22,730 22,788 

15,761 

18,397 

18,807 

18,657 

17,342 

19,519 

19,962 

20,931 

20,452 

19,688 

20,890 

21,246 

20,371 

19,795 

20,672 

19,708 

20,155 

20,382 

20,672 

21,341 

22,480 

23,422 

23,436 

24,045 

24,298 

22,941 

22,928 

24,005 

25,096 

23,626 

22,892 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

-lin 

0.85 

0.42 

-0.34 

-0.85 

0.85 

-0.92 

-0.21 

0.28 

0.46 

0.18 

0.61 

1.09 

0.15 

0.34 

0.33 

-0.53 

0.31 

0.50 

2.41 

2.83 

-2.14 

2^9 

2.85 

2.38 

2.10 

2.05 

1.90 

1.98 

1.53 

1.53 

1.57 

1.76 

1.52 

1.60 

1.81 

1.69 

1.64 

1.66 

. 

. 

. 

. 

. 

. 

. 

. 

2^94 

18,958 

15,841 

18,456 

18,788 

18,174 

17,335 

19,920 

20,036 

21,182 

20,094 

19,959 

20,997 

21,217 

19,774 

20,125 

20,738 

19,583 

20,205 

20,396 

20,703 

21,481 

22,707 

23,361 

23,421 

24,161 

24,137 

22,777 

23,176 

24,397 

25,007 

22,797 

T 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

o!6i 

-0.88 

0.46 

0.34 

-0.45 

-0.13 

0.49 

-0.59 

0.21 

-0.26 

0.37 

0.41 

0.39 

1.12 

0.33 

-0.11 

0.66 

-0.04 

-0.66 

0.66 

2.44 

3.63 

-2.21 

-U34 

-0.44 

0.77 

0.73 

-0.82 

0.12 

0.17 

-0.11 

0.38 

-0.04 

0.11 

0.73 

0.45 

0.86 

0.68 

0.01 

0.34 

-0.32 

-0.17 

1.19 

2.10 

2.70 

-0.75 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

-1*.35 

0.16 

0.99 

0.27 

-1.01 

0.25 

0.20 

-0.53 

0.48 

-0.03 

0.07 

0.86 

0.76 

0.12 

0.53 

0.49 

-0.01 

0.16 

0.35 

1.05 

2.61 

-0.14 

-0.04 

END OF PERIOD 

2.29 

2.91 

2.22 

2.06 

2.25 

1.82 

1.91 

1.50 

1.51 

1.52 

1.75 

1.43 

1.68 

1.79 

1.65 

1.68 

1.63 

1.76 

1.76 

1.72 

1.56 

1.64 

1.79 

1.78 

1.85 

1.99 

2.61 

2.63 

2.20 

2.69 

2.30 

2.09 

1.99 

1.97 

1.81 

1.47 

1.54 

1.54 

1.63 

1.56 

1.71 

1.76 

1.63 

1.73 

1.65 

. .. 

... 

... 2.59 

AVERAGE FOR 

18,371 

16,938 

18,377 

18,623 

17,563 

18,140 

20,068 

19,894 

21,268 

19,716 

20,475 

21,116 

21,100 

19,163 

20,596 

20,599 

19,713 

20,460 

20,600 

20,872 

21,712 

23,065 

23,192 

23,644 

24,312 

23,718 

22,831 

23,481 

24,682 

24,949 

22,343 

16,898 

17,802 

18,389 

18,829 

17,364 

18,941 

19,875 

19,983 

21,104 

19,447 

20,634 

20,934 

20,902 

19,302 

20,401 

20,317 

19,887 

20,492 

20,673 

21,065 

21,994 

23,307 

23,194 

23,761 

24,442 

23,409 

22,783 

23,578 

24,807 

24,756 

22,482 

2.40 

2.02 

2.67 

2.09 

2.15 

1.92 

1.98 

1.65 

1.50 

1.52 

1.57 

1.55 

1.65 

1.76 

1.68 

1.64 

1.76 

1.70 

1.65 

1.7*1 

1.69 

1.63 

1.76 

1.90 

1.72 

1.96 

2.27 

2.80 

2.47 

PERIOD 

15,675 

18,302 

18,692 

18,731 

17,049 

19,452 

19,852 

20,746 

20,630 

19,610 

20,822 

21,200 

20,522 

19,647 

20,345 

19,926 

20,070 

20,449 

20,685 

21,184 

22,332 

23,389 

23,330 

23,936 

24,323 

22,781 

22,874 

23,940 

25,014 

24,106 

22,803 

Annual 

-o!62 

0.77 

0.44 

-0.65 

-0.16 

0.43 

-0.54 

0.22 

-0.01 

0.25 

0.54 

0.56 

0.80 

0.42 

0.18 

0.33 

-0.18 

-0.04 

0.85 

2.39 

2.26 

-1.28 

2.40 

2.02 

2.67 

2.09 

2.15 

1.92 

1.98 

1.65 

1.50 

1.52 

1.57 

1.55 

1.65 

1.76 

1.68 

1.64 

1.76 

1.70 

1.65 

1.74 

1.69 

1.63 

1.76 

1.90 

1.72 

1.96 

2.27 

, 2.80 

2.47 

17,492 

17,226 

18,482 

18,745 

17,536 

18,475 

19,925 

20,164 

21,038 

19,717 

20,476 

| 21,064 

20,925 

19,474 

20,367 

20,393 

19,814 

20,405 

20,593 

20,958 

21,880 

23,116 

23,268 

23,693 

24,311 

23,507 

22,820 

23,546 

1 24,727 

1 24,697 

1 22,603 

88 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948. .. 

1949. .. 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954. . . 

1955. .. 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961. .. 

1962. . . 

1963. .. 

1964. . . 

1965. .. 

1966... 

1967. . . 

1968.. . 

1969. . . 

1970. .. 

1971. . . 

1972. .. 

1973. .. 

1974. . . 

1975. . . 

1976... 

1945... 

1946. .. 

1947. . . 

1948... 

1949... 

195U... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966. . . 

1967. . . 

1968... 

1969... 

1970 . . . 

1971. . . 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947. .. 

1948... 

1949. . . 

1950... 

1951... 

1952. . . 

1953. . . 

1954.. . 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958. . . 

1959.. . 

1960. .. 

1961... 

1962. .. 

1963. .. 

1964. . . 

1965... 

1966... 

1967. . . 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

41,780 

39,729 

43,493 

44,658 

44,622 

43,467 

47,267 

48,268 

50,084 

49,361 

49,360 

51,910 

52,860 

52,054 

52,456 

54,221 

53,573 

54,745 

55,960 

57,326 

59,467 

62,454 

65,284 

66,701 

69,381 

71,156 

70,807 

72,386 

75,487 

78,033 

77,300 

Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 

41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS, ESTABLISHMENT 

41,784 

39,215 

43,588 

44,541 

44,445 

43,192 

47,518 

48,456 

50,320 

49,284 

49,538 

52,127 

53,044 

51,486 

52,602 

54,452 

53,423 

55,050 

56,092 

57,666 

59,715 

62,744 

65,281 

67,077 

69,618 

71,219 

70,698 

72,529 

75,925 

78,205 

76,804 

4 2. TOTAL NUMBER 

49,984 

50,385 

50,570 

52,808 

53,312 

54,958 

53,951 

54,640 

57,163 

57,842 

57,389 

58,387 

59,889 

60,354 

61,014 

62,190 

63,724 

65,726 

68,121 

69,781 

70,792 

73,101 

75,440 

75,319 

77,283 

79,197 

82,085 

81,336 

3 ^ 

4.3 

6.5 

3.7 

3.2 

2.9 

4.9 

4.9 

4.0 

4.2 

5.8 

6.0 

5.2 

6.6 

5.8 

5.7 

5.6 

4.9 

4.0 

3.9 

3.7 

3.4 

3.9 

5.9 

5.8 

4.9 

5.0 

7.9 

50,500 

50,186 

50,694 

52,923 

53,442 

55,421 

54,073 

54,873 

57,061 

58,132 

57,244 

58,255 

60,177 

60,116 

61,249 

62,372 

64,188 

65,805 

68,056 

69,883 

71,270 

73,557 

75,264 

75,199 

77,350 

79,949 

82,184 

80,973 

3 ^ 

4.7 

6.4 

3.4 

3.1 

2.6 

5.2 

4.7 

3.9 

3.9 

6.4 

5.9 

4.8 

6.9 

5.5 

5.9 

5.4 

5.1 

3.8 

3.8 

3.8 

3.4 

4.2 

5.9 

5.7 

5.0 

5.1 

8.0 

41,656 

40,214 

43,639 

44,662 

44,214 

43,871 

47,725 

48,473 

50,398 

49,099 

49,866 

52,180 

53,124 

51,158 

52,884 

54,380 

53,522 

55,178 

56,205 

57,718 

59,957 

63,134 

65,361 

67,197 

69,835 

71,353 

70,786 

72,894 

76,219 

78,275 

76,518 

OF PERSO 

50,338 

50,035 

50,612 

53,543 

53,440 

55,590 

53,791 

54,722 

57,190 

58,441 

57,170 

58,590 

59,714 

60,444 

61,336 

62,655 

64,397 

66,121 

68,119 

69,682 

71,475 

73,699 

75,320 

74,995 

77,778 

80,488 

82,403 

80,942 

4.0 

5.0 

6.3 

3.4 

2.9 

2.6 

5.7 

4.6 

4.2 

3.7 

6.7 

5.6 

5.4 

6.9 

5.6 

5.7 

5.4 

4.7 

3.8 

3.8 

3.7 

3.4 

4.4 

5.9 

5.8 

4.9 

5.0 

8.5 

41,341 

40,811 

43,478 

44,342 

44,058 

44,276 

47,890 

48,494 

50,418 

49,010 

50,127 

52,325 

53,080 

50,880 

53,221 

54,636 

53,538 

55,455 

56,447 

57,898 

60,144 

63,390 

65,442 

67,455 

70,008 

71,304 

70,987 

73,151 

76,416 

78,423 

76,491 

(THOUSANDS) 

41,125 40,912 

41,260 41,568 

43,561 43,688 

44,659 44,925 

43,848 43,626 

44,607 44,995 

47,829 47,951 

48,538 48,142 

50,394 50,416 

48,863 48,820 

50,447 50,745 

52,418 52,498 

53,054 53,003 

50,820 50,851 

53,477 53,645 

54,407 54,324 

53,721 53,959 

55,565 55,600 

56,575 56,610 

58,039 58,171 

60,436 60,655 

63,638 64,026 

65,553 65,677 

67,560 67,825 

70,228 70,520 

71,008 70,902 

71,163 71,142 

73,440 73,679 

76,619 76,935 

78,559 78,628 

76,577 76,444 

NS ENGAGED IN NONAGRICUL1 

50,734 

49,836 

51,319 

53,167 

53,384 

55,082 

54,043 

55,152 

57,154 

58,211 

57,029 

58,875 

60,488 

60,337 

61,363 

62,972 

64,942 

66,209 

68,402 

70,134 

71,686 

73,894 

75,333 

75,182 

77,860 

80,575 

82,326 

80,963 

(THOUSANDS 

50,713 51,152 

49,485 49,370 

51,372 51,767 

53,436 53,091 

53,861 53,690 

55,082 55,095 

53,698 53,630 

55,307 55,538 

57,486 57,485 

57,986 58,194 

57,227 57,220 

58,907 59,137 

60,698 60,752 

60,350 60,773 

61,724 61,727 

62,886 63,007 

65,028 64,662 

66,310 66,581 

68,567 68,808 

70,186 70,589 

72,293 72,376 

73,706 74,217 

74,998 74,883 

75,453 75,275 

78,063 78,264 

80,687 81,047 

82,590 82,776 

80,940 81,135 

43. UNEMPLOYMENT I 

3^9 

5.3 

5.8 

3.1 

2.9 

2.7 

5.9 

4.7 

4.0 

3.9 

7.4 

5.2 

5.2 

7.0 

5.6 

5.7 

5.3 

4.8 

3.8 

3.8 

3.5 

3.4 

4.6 

5.9 

5.7 

5.0 

5.0 

8.6 

(PERCENT) 

3.5 3.6 

6.1 6.2 

5.5 5.4 

3.0 3.2 

3.0 3.0 

2.5 2.5 

5.9 5.6 

4.3 4.2 

4.3 4.3 

4.1 4.3 

7.4 7.3 

5.1 5.0 

5.1 5.4 

7.1 6.9 

5.5 5.5 

5.9 5.6 

5.1 5.2 

4.6 4.6 

3.9 3.8 

3.8 3.9 

3.5 3.7 

3.4 3.5 

4.7 4.9 

5.9 5.9 

5.6 5.6 

4.8 4.8 

5.1 5.3 

9.0 8.7 

40,623 40,320 

41,968 42,490 

43,667 43,851 

45,124 45,040 

43,457 43,506 

45,387 46,064 

47,951 47,815 

47,986 48,705 

50,413 50,304 

48,730 48,707 

50,870 50,967 

51,827 52,476 

53,003 52,976 

50,944 51,159 

53,713 53,287 

54,258 54,228 

54,095 54,267 

55,707 55,823 

56,753 56,867 

58,383 58,546 

60,929 61,130 

64,246 64,399 

65,838 66,001 

68,046 68,256 

70,693 70,798 

70,960 70,797 

71,180 71,174 

73,707 74,009 

76,967 77,186 

78,660 78,709 

76,719 77,059 

URAL ACTIVITIES, 

) 

51,366 50,894 

49,169 49,793 

51,875 52,549 

53,555 53,204 

53,637 53,616 

55,130 54,832 

53,421 53,766 

56,075 56,222 

57,480 57,692 

58,139 58,061 

57,220 57,339 

59,447 59,402 

60,367 60,375 

60,455 60,486 

61,643 62,102 

63,211 63,304 

64,808 64,890 

67,070 67,007 

68,940 69,225 

70,687 70,804 

72,267 72,307 

74,411 74,637 

75,179 75,173 

75,717 75,904 

78,306 78,476 

81,041 81,044 

82,795 82,640 

81,421 81,697 

IATE, TOTAL 

3.' 6 3 ! 9 

6.7 6.8 

5.0 4.5 

3.1 3.1 

3.2 3.4 

2.6 2.7 

5.8 6.0 

4.0 4.2 

4.4 4.1 

4.2 4.1 

7.5 7.4 

5.1 5.2 

5.5 5.6 

7.0 6.6 

5.4 5.7 

5.6 5.4 

4.9 5.0 

4.4 4.4 

3.8 3.8 

3.8 3.8 

3.7 3.5 

3.5 3.5 

5.0 5.1 

6.0 6.1 

5.6 5.6 

4.8 4.8 

5.5 5.5 

8.7 8.5 

38,387 

42,798 

44,062 

45,143 

43,671 

46,298 

47,770 

49,146 

50,173 

48,802 

51,144 

52,510 

52,869 

51,413 

53,316 

54,116 

54,307 

55,903 

57,025 

58,819 

61,399 

64,504 

66,084 

68,421 

70/873 

70,865 

71,502 

74,200 

77,326 

78,774 

77,344 

Oct. 

SURVEY 

38,470 

43,008 

44,272 

45,087 

42,811 

46,522 

47,815 

49,451 

50,115 

48,838 

51,336 

52,691 

52,718 

51,418 

53,230 

54,021 

54,413 

55,957 

57,203 

58,718 

61,608 

64,687 

66,124 

68,645 

71,047 

70,462 

71,491 

74,543 

77,607 

78,718 

77,596 

Nov. 

38,821 

43,263 

44,345 

45,094 

43,163 

46,652 

48,049 

49,719 

49,845 

49,109 

51,511 

52,760 

52,495 

51,858 

53,541 

53,891 

54,669 

55,981 

57,171 

59,131 

61,908 

64,892 

66,624 

68,905 

71,001 

70,326 

71,691 

74,820 

77,940 

78,339 

77,730 

LABOR FORCE SURVEY 

50,648 

50,287 

52,583 

53,155 

53,984 

54,708 

53,829 

56,131 

57,704 

58,393 

57,728 

59,323 

60,512 

60,520 

62,325 

63,524 

64,959 

67,015 

69,306 

71,003 

72,414 

74,699 

75,000 

76,034 

78,508 

81,512 

82,691 

81,609 

3.8 

6.6 

4.4 

3.3 

3.1 

2.9 

6.1 

4.1 

3.9 

4.4 

7.1 

5.5 

5.5 

6.7 

5.6 

5.5 

5.1 

4.3 

3.7 

3.8 

3.4 

3.7 

5.4 

6.0 

5.6 

4.9 

5.9 

8.6 

50,761 

50,455 

52,432 

53,374 

53,769 

54,797 

54,028 

56,263 

57,838 

58,171 

57,912 

59,556 

60,196 

60,716 

62,298 

63,592 

65,032 

67,277 

69,489 

71,043 

72,483 

74,928 

75,267 

76,218 

78,479 

81,873 

82,570 

81,698 

3!7 

7.9 

4.2 

3.5 

3.0 

3.1 

5.7 

4.3 

3.9 

4.5 

6.7 

5.7 

6.1 

6.5 

5.4 

5.5 

5.1 

4.2 

3.7 

4.0 

3.4 

3.7 

5.6 

5.9 

5.7 

4.7 

6.1 

8.6 

50,793 

50,512 

52,534 

53,137 

54,239 

54,393 

54,423 

56,602 

57,799 

57,983 

57,899 

59,050 

60,596 

60,991 

62,016 

63,573 

65,239 

67,631 

69,895 

71,192 

72,736 

75,064 

75,169 

76,543 

78,938 

82,008 

82,217 

81,897 

3!8 

6.4 

4.2 

3.5 

2.8 

3.5 

5.3 

4.2 

4.3 

5.1 

6.2 

5.8 

6.1 

6.1 

5.7 

5.7 

4.8 

4.1 

3.6 

3.9 

3.4 

3.5 

5.9 

6.0 

5.2 

4.8 

6.7 

8.4 

Dec. 

39,022 

43,333 

44,557 

45,051 

43,525 

46,784 

48,188 

49,993 

49,673 

49,250 

51,739 

52,901 

52,307 

52,008 

54,069 

53,611 

54,792 

55,967 

57,295 

59,345 

62,242 

65,062 

66,816 

69,221 

71,178 

70,699 

71,971 

75,077 

78,037 

77,703 

78,012 

50,756 

50,466 

52,669 

53,432 

54,593 

54,048 

54,268 

57,031 

58,104 

57,885 

58,028 

59,883 

60,156 

60,908 

62,300 

63,584 

65,492 

67,903 

69,823 

71,397 

73,032 

75,331 

75,101 

76,753 

79,266 

82,035 

81,782 

82,188 

4.0 

6.6 

4.3 

3.1 

2.7 

4.5 

5.0 

4.2 

4.2 

5.2 

6.2 

5.3 

6.6 

6.0 

5.5 

5.5 

5.0 

4.0 

3.8 

3.8 

3.4 

3.5 

6.1 

6.0 

5.1 

4.9 

7.2 

8.3 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

41,740 

39,719 

43,573 

44,620 

44,427 

43,510 

47,503 

48,399 

50,267 

49,248 

49,588 

52,072 

53,009 

51,566 

52,647 

54,351 

53,506 

54,991 

56,086 

57,570 

59,713 

62,777 

65,309 

66,992 

69,611 

71,243 

70,764 

72,603 

75,877 

78,171 

76,874 

50,274 

50,202 

50,625 

53,091 

53,398 

55,323 

53,938 

54,745 

57,138 

58,138 

57,268 

58,411 

59,927 

60,305 

61,200 

62,406 

64,103 

65,884 

68,099 

69,782 

71,179 

73,452 

75,341 

75,171 

| 77,470 

79,878 

82,224 

81,084 

3.7 

4.7 

6.4 

3.5 

3.1 

2.7 

5.3 

4.7 

1 4.0 

1 3.9 

6.3 

5.8 

5.1 

6.8 

5.6 

5.8 

5.5 

4.9 

3.9 

3.8 

3.7 

3.4 

4.2 

5.9 

5.8 

4.9 

5.0 

8.1 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

41,126 

41,213 

43,576 

44,642 

43,844 

44,626 

47,890 

48,391 

50,409 

48,898 

50,440 

52,414 

53,046 

50,850 

53,448 

54,456 

53,739 

55,540 

56,544 

58,036 

60,412 

63,685 

65,557 

67,613 

70,252 

71,071 

71,097 

73,423 

76,657 

78,537 

76,504 

39,777 

42,419 

43,860 

45,102 

43,545 

45,916 

47,845 

48,612 

50,297 

48,746 

50,994 

52,271 

52,949 

51,172 

53,439 

54,201 

54,223 

55,811 

56,882 

58,583 

61,153 

64,383 

65,974 

68,241 

70,788 

70,874 

71,285 

73,972 

77,160 

78,714 

77,041 

AVERAGE FOR 

50,866 

49,564 

51,486 

53,231 

53,645 

55,086 

53,790 

55,332 

57,375 

58,130 

57,159 

58,973 

60,646 

60,487 

61,605 

62,955 

64,877 

66,367 

68,592 

70,303 

72,118 

73,939 

75,071 

75,303 

78,062 

80,770 

82,564 

81,013 

50,969 

49,750 

52,336 

53,305 

53,746 

54,890 

53,672 

56,143 

57,625 

58,198 

57,429 

59,391 

60,418 

60,487 

62,023 

63,346 

64,886 

67,031 

69,157 

70,831 

72,329 

74,582 

75,117 

75,885 

78,430 

81,199 

82,709 

81,576 

AVERAGE FOR 

3.7 

5.9 

5.6 

3.1 

3.0 

2.6 

5.8 

4.4 

4.2 

4.1 

7.4 

5.1 

5.2 

7.0 

5.5 

5.7 

5.2 

4.7 

3.8 

3.8 

3.6 

3.4 

4.7 

5.9 

5.6 

4.9 

5.1 

8.8 

3.8 

6.7 

4.6 

3.2 

3.2 

2.7 

6.0 

4.1 

4.1 

4.2 

7.3 

5.3 

5.5 

6.8 

5.6 

5.5 

5.0 

4.4 

3.8 

3.8 

3.5 

3.6 

5.2 

6.0 

5.6 

4.8 

5.6 

8.6 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

38,771 

43,201 

44,391 

45,077 

43,166 

46,653 

48,017 

49,721 

49,878 

49,066 

51,529 

52,784 

52,507 

51,761 

53,613 

53,841 

54,625 

55,968 

57,223 

59,065 

61,919 

64,880 

66,521 

68,924 

71,075 

70,496 

71,718 

74,813 

77,861 

78,253 

77,779 

PERIOD 

50,770 

50,478 

52,545 

53,314 

54,200 

54,413 

54,240 

56,632 

57,914 

58,013 

57,946 

59,496 

60,316 

60,872 

62,205 

63,583 

65,254 

67,604 

69,736 

71,211 

72,750 

75,108 

75,179 

76,505 

78,894 

81,972 

82,190 

81,928 

PERIOD 

3.8 

7.0 

4.2 

3.4 

2.8 

3.7 

5.3 

4.2 

4.1 

4.9 

6.4 

5.6 

6.3 

6.2 

5.5 

5.6 

5.0 

4.1 

3.7 

3.9 

3.4 

3.6 

5.9 

6.0 

5.3 

4.8 

6.7 

8.4 

Annual 

40,394 

41,674 

43,881 

44,891 

43,778 

45,222 

47,849 

48,825 

50,232 

49,022 

50,675 

52,408 

52,894 

51,363 

53,313 

54,234 

54,042 

55,596 

56,702 

58,331 

60,815 

63,955 

65,857 

67,951 

70,442 

70,920 

71,222 

73,714 

76,896 

78,413 

1 77,051 

50,716 

49,992 

51,759 

53,236 

53,753 

54,921 

53,904 

55,721 

57,517 

58,123 

57,450 

59,065 

60,318 

60,546 

61,759 

63,076 

64,782 

66,727 

68,920 

70,529 

72,104 

74,296 

75,165 

75,732 

j 78,230 

80,957 

82,443 

81,403 

3^8 

5.9 

5.3 

3.3 

3.0 

2.9 

5.6 

4.4 

4.1 

4.3 

6.8 

5.5 

5.5 

6.7 

5.5 

5.7 

5.2 

4.5 

3.8 

3.8 

3.6 

3.5 

4.9 

5.9 

5.6 

4.9 

5.6 

8.5 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

I960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969.. . 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950.. . 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949.. . 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

(K5 

0.5 

1.5 

0.7 

0.5 

0.4 

0.6 

1.4 

0.8 

0.8 

1.3 

2.1 

1.3 

1.9 

1.8 

1.6 

1.5 

1.1 

0.8 

0.6 

0.6 

0.4 

0.5 

1.3 

1.5 

1.1 

0.9 

1.7 

4^2 

6.2 

2.9 

3.2 

2.6 

4.4 

4.2 

3.2 

3.5 

5.5 

4.9 

4.3 

6.2 

4.7 

4.8 

4.0 

3.3 

2.6 

2.3 

2.3 

2.1 

2.5 

3.7 

3.6 

2.8 

3.0 

5.4 

109 

83 

72 

65 

47 

34 

62 

68 

72 

45 

47 

68 

69 

43 

50 

63 

47 

61 

58 

62 

74 

100 

103 

i 103 

122 

110 

78 

91 

126 

117 

77 

Feb. 

0.5 

0.6 

1.5 

0.6 

0.4 

0.3 

0.8 

1.3 

0.8 

0.8 

1.5 

1.9 

1.2 

2.0 

1.8 

1.6 

1.4 

1.2 

0.8 

0.6 

0.6 

0.4 

0.6 

1.3 

1.5 

1.0 

0.9 

2.0 

Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 

44. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, 15 WEEKS AND OVER 

(PERCENT) 

o!5 

0.7 

1.5 

0.6 

0.4 

0.3 

1.2 

1.3 

0.8 

0.8 

1.7 

1.8 

1.4 

2.1 

1.7 

1.5 

1.4 

1.1 

0.8 

0.6 

0.6 

0.4 

0.6 

1.3 

1.4 

1.0 

0.9 

2.2 

0.5 0.5 0.5 

0.8 1.0 1.2 

1.5 1.4 1.4 

0.5 0.4 0.4 

0.4 0.4 0.3 

0.3 0.3 0.3 

1.2 1.4 1.4 

1.3 1.1 1.0 

0.7 0.8 0.8 

0.8 0.8 0.8 

2.1 2.2 2.5 

1.5 1.4 1.4 

1.3 1.1 1.2 

2.3 2.4 2.3 

1.6 1.6 1.5 

1.5 1.6 1.5 

1.3 1.3 1.4 

1.1 1.0 1.1 

0.8 0.7 0.6 

0.6 0.5 0.5 

0.5 0.5 0.5 

0.5 0.5 0.5 

0.7 0.7 0.8 

1.3 1.4 1.4 

1.4 1.3 1.3 

0.9 0.9 0.9 

0.9 0.9 1.0 

2.6 2.8 2.9 

0.5 

1.4 

1.2 

0.4 

0.3 

0.3 

1.5 

1.0 

0.8 

0.8 

2.6 

1.3 

1.3 

2.6 

1.5 

1.5 

1.4 

0.9 

0.6 

0.5 

0.5 

0.5 

0.8 

1.5 

1.3 

0.8 

1.0 

3.1 

0.5 

1.5 

1.0 

0.4 

0.3 

0.3 

1.6 

0.8 

0.8 

0.8 

2.8 

1.3 

1.3 

2.3 

1.5 

1.6 

1.3 

1.0 

0.6 

0.6 

0.5 

0.5 

0.8 

1.5 

1.3 

0.9 

1.0 

3.0 

Sept. 

o'.l 1.6 

1.0 

0.4 

0.4 

0.3 

1.6 

0.9 

0.9 

0.8 

2.6 

1.3 

1.4 

2.2 

1.5 

1.5 

1.3 

1.0 

0.6 

0.6 

0.5 

0.5 

0.9 

1.5 

1.3 

0.9 

1.1 

3.1 

Oct. 

o!5 

1.6 

0.9 

0.4 

0.4 

0.3 

1.6 

0.9 

0.8 

1.0 

2.5 

1.3 

1.7 

2.1 

1.4 

1.5 

1.2 

0.9 

0.6 

0.6 

0.5 

0.5 

0.9 

1.5 

1.3 

0.9 

1.2 

2.9 

45. AVERAGE WEEKLY INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, STATE PROGRAMS 

4.7 

6.0 

2.7 

3.1 

2.5 

4.7 

4.1 

3.3 

3.5 

6.0 

4.7 

4.2 

6.3 

4.5 

4.6 

3.9 

3.3 

2.6 

2.4 

2.3 

2.1 

2.6 

3.7 

3.7 

2.8 

3.1 

5.8 

109 

77 

72 

63 

40 

34 

63 

67 

73 

43 

49 

70 

66 

40 

52 

63 

46 

60 

58 

61 

76 

102 

102 

103 

122 

109 

80 

93 

126 

116 

76 

(PERCENT) 

5*. 2 

5.8 

2.5 

3.1 

2.5 

5.0 

3.8 

3.3 

3.4 

6.6 

4.3 

4.5 

6.3 

4.4 

4.4 

3.9 

3.2 

2.3 

2.6 

2.2 

2.0 

2.7 

3.8 

3.6 

2.8 

3.2 

6.2 

5.4 5.8 6.2 

5.4 5.0 4.7 

2.6 2.8 2.9 

3.0 3.0 3.0 

2.5 2.4 2.4 

5.3 5.5 5.5 

3.6 3.4 3.3 

3.2 3.3 3.4 

3.3 3.3 3.4 

7.1 7.0 6.9 

4.0 3.6 3.5 

4.3 4.2 4.4 

5.9 5.6 5.3 

3.9 3.8 4.0 

4.2 4.2 4.1 

3.8 3.8 3.7 

3.1 3.0 2.9 

2.1 2.1 2.2 

2.6 2.7 2.6 

2.1 2.2 2.2 

2.0 2.0 2.0 

3.1 3.5 3.7 

3.9 4.3 4.3 

3.6 3.5 3.5 

2.6 2.6 2.6 

3.1 3.1 3.2 

6.4 6.6 6.5 

6.4 

4.3 

3.0 

3.6 

2.5 

5.3 

3.3 

3.5 

3.5 

6.7 

3.7 

4.7 

5.3 

4.2 

4.2 

3.6 

3.0 

2.4 

2.8 

2.3 

2.1 

3.5 

4.0 

3.6 

2.6 

3.3 

6.3 

7.2 

3.7 

3.2 

3.3 

2.7 

5.4 

3.3 

3.5 

3.5 

6.7 

4.1 

5.1 

5.2 

4.4 

4.2 

3.5 

3.0 

2.4 

2.6 

2.3 

2.1 

3.7 

4.1 

3.2 

2.6 

3.4 

6.1 

7.4 

3.5 

3.4 

2.6 

2.9 

5.6 

3.2 

3.5 

3.9 

6.2 

4.2 

5.4 

5.1 

4.4 

4.1 

3.4 

2.9 

2.1 

2.4 

2.1 

2.2 

4.3 

4.6 

3.1 

2.6 

3.6 

6.0 

4 6. INDEX OF HELP-WANTED ADVERTISING IN NEWSPAPERS 

(1967=100) 

110 

82 

70 

59 

40 

35 

66 

65 

77 

41 

52 

69 

65 

38 

55 

60 

47 

60 

59 

62 

78 

108 

99 

104 

123 

103 

80 

95 

127 

117 

74 

110 102 103 

81 70 78 

68 65 63 

59 59 59 

38 38 35 

37 38 40 

64 66 63 

66 65 65 

75 73 70 

41 40 41 

53 56 58 

70 69 68 

62 61 58 

37 37 38 

59 59 62 

59 58 57 

47 49 51 

60 62 60 

58 57 57 

65 65 67 

78 81 82 

104 105 106 

100 99 99 

[ 106 107 106 

125 125 120 

100 94 93 

80 81 84 

97 98 99 

125 126 127 

120 119 119 

74 74 81 

113 

82 

62 

58 

34 

43 

64 

66 

67 

40 

60 

65 

60 

40 

64 

55 

51 

60 

59 

69 

82 

106 

97 

109 

119 

89 

83 

102 

129 

118 

84 

102 

80 

66 

59 

33 

49 

64 

67 

64 

40 

63 

67 

57 

41 

62 

54 

53 

59 

58 

68 

85 

105 

101 

111 

117 

88 

84 

105 

126 

114 

83 

89 

77 

76 

62 

32 

50 

63 

71 

61 

40 

67 

66 

56 

44 

63 

52 

54 

58 

58 

69 

88 

103 

100 

113 

124 

87 

83 

106 

125 

107 

83 

7.5 

3.3 

3.4 

2.5 

3.2 

5.6 

3.1 

3.3 

4.3 

6.0 

4.8 

5.7 

5.0 

4.5 

4.1 

3.4 

2.7 

2.0 

2.3 

2.0 

2.2 

4.4 

4.4 

3.0 

2.6 

3.9 

5.8 

87 

77 

73 

57 

31 

54 

65 

74 

56 

40 

65 

70 

52 

45 

61 

50 

57 

58 

60 

69 

92 

103 

101 

119 

123 

81 

84 

111 

127 

99 

83 

Nov. 

h'.l 1.7 

0.8 

0.5 

0.3 

0.4 

1.5 

0.9 

0.9 

1.0 

2.3 

1.4 

1.7 

2.0 

1.5 

1.5 

1.3 

0.9 

0.6 

0.6 

0.5 

0.5 

1.0 

1.5 

1.2 

0.9 

1.3 

3.2 

7.3 

3.4 

3.3 

2.4 

3.8 

5.0 

3.1 

3.4 

4.8 

5.6 

5.5 

6.3 

5.1 

4.6 

4.1 

3.4 

2.6 

2.1 

2.3 

2.0 

2.3 

4.4 

4.1 

3.0 

2.6 

4.4 

5.3 

90 

76 

70 

53 

30 

53 

65 

74 

51 

43 

68 

69 

47 

47 

61 

49 

59 

57 

59 

72 

97 

103 

100 

119 

119 

81 

86 

113 

126 

91 

87 

Dec. 

0.5 

1.6 

0.8 

0.4 

0.4 

0.5 

1.3 

0.9 

0.9 

1.1 

2.2 

1.3 

1.6 

1.9 

1.5 

1.4 

1.2 

0.9 

0.6 

0.6 

0.4 

0.5 

1.3 

1.5 

1.1 

0.8 

1.5 

3.2 

i'.'e 3.3 

3.2 

2.5 

4.1 

4.5 

3.2 

3.4 

5.3 

5.3 

4.8 

6.3 

4.8 

4.7 

4.1 

3.4 

2.6 

2.3 

2.2 

2.0 

2.4 

4.0 

3.8 

3.0 

2.8 

5.0 

4.8 

87 

74 

67 

48 

29 

51 

65 

74 

46 

44 

71 

67 

45 

50 

62 

48 

58 

57 

62 

72 

99 

102 

101 

117 

115 

81 

88 

123 

122 

85 

88 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

0.5 

0.6 

1.5 

U.6 

U.4 

U.3 

0.9 

1.3 

0.8 

0.8 

1.5 

1.9 

1.3 

2.0 

1.8 

1.6 

1.4 

1.1 

0.8 

0.6 

0.6 

U.4 

U.6 

1.3 

1.5 

1.0 

0.9 

2.0 

4.7 

6.0 

2.7 

3.1 

2.5 

4.7 

4.0 

3.3 

3.5 

6.0 

4.6 

4.3 

6.3 

4.5 

4.6 

3.9 

3.3 

2.5 

2.4 

2.3 

2.1 

2.6 

3.7 

3.6 

2.8 

3.1 

5.8 

109 

81 

71 

62 

42 

34 

64 

67 

74 

43 

49 

69 

67 

40 

52 

62 

47 

60 

58 

62 

76 

103 

101 

103 

122 

107 

79 

93 

126 

117 

76 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

0.5 0.5 

1.0 1.5 

1.4 1.1 

0.4 0.4 

0.4 0.3 

0.3 0.3 

1.3 1.6 

1.1 0.9 

0.8 0.8 

U.8 0.8 

2.3 2.7 

1.4 1.3 

1.2 1.3 

2.3 2.4 

1.6 1.5 

1.5 1.5 

1.3 1.3 

1.1 1.0 

0.7 0.6 

0.5 0.6 

0.5 0.5 

0.5 0.5 

0.7 0.8 

1.4 1.5 

1.3 1.3 

0.9 0.9 

0.9 1.0 

2.8 3.1 

AVERAGE FOR 

5.8 7.U 

5.0 3.8 

2.8 3.2 

3.0 3.2 

2.4 2.7 

5.4 5.4 

3.4 3.3 

3.3 3.5 

3.3 3.6 

7.0 6.5 

3.7 4.0 

4.3 5.1 

5.6 5.2 

3.9 4.3 

4.2 4.2 

3.8 3.5 

3.0 3.0 

2.1 2.3 

2.6 2.6 

2.2 2.2 

2.0 2.1 

3.4 3.8 

4.2 4.2 

3.5 3.3 

2.6 2.6 

3.1 3.4 

6.5 6.1 

AVERAGE FOR 

105 101 

76 80 

65 68 

59 60 

37 33 

38 47 

64 64 

65 68 

73 64 

41 40 

56 63 

69 66 

60 58 

37 42 

60 63 

58 54 

49 53 

61 59 

57 58 

66 69 

80 85 

105 105 

99 99 

106 111 

123 120 

96 88 

82 83 

98 104 

126 127 

119 113 

76 83 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

0.5 

1.6 

0.8 

0.4 

0.4 

0.4 

1.5 

0.9 

0.9 

1.0 

2.3 

1.3 

1.7 

2.0 

1.5 

1.5 

1.2 

0.9 

0.6 

0.6 

0.5 

0.5 

1.1 

1.5 

1.2 

0.9 

1.3 

3.1 

PERIOD 

7.1 

3.3 

3.3 

2.5 

3.7 

5.0 

3.1 

3.4 

4.8 

5.6 

5.0 

6.1 

5.0 

4.6 

4.1 

3.4 

2.6 

2.1 

2.3 

2.0 

2.3 

4.3 

4.1 

3.0 

2.7 

4.4 

5.3 

PERIOD 

88 

76 

70 

53 

30 

53 

65 

74 

51 

42 

68 

69 

48 

47 

61 

49 

58 

57 

60 

71 

96 

103 

101 

118 

119 

81 

86 

116 

125 

92 

86 

Annual 

o!5 

1.1 

1.3 

0.5 

0.4 

0.3 

1.3 

1.1 

0.8 

0.8 

2.1 

1.5 

1.4 

2.2 

1.6 

1.5 

1.3 

1.0 

0.7 

0.6 

0.5 

0.5 

0.8 

1.4 

1.3 

0.9 

1.0 

2.7 

6.2 

4.6 

3.0 

2.9 

2.8 

5.2 

3.5 

3.4 

3.8 

6.3 

4.3 

5.0 

5.5 

4.3 

4.3 

3.6 

3.0 

2.3 

2.5 

2.2 

2.1 

3.5 

4.1 

3.4 

2.7 

3.5 

5.9 

101 

78 

69 

58 

36 

1 43 

64 

68 

65 

42 

59 

68 

58 

42 

59 

56 

52 

59 

59 

67 

84 

104 

100 

110 

121 

93 

83 

103 

126 

110 

80 

90 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

194b... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

I960..". 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

46.5 

32.4 

38.9 

40.8 

40.3 

39.9 

48.8 

1 49.3 

[ 54.6 

51.4 

54.9 

61.1 

62.5 

57.4 

62.5 

68.8 

63.0 

70.2 

73.8 

79.0 

86.2 

94.4 

99.8 

103.7 

109.5 

109.1 

108.1 

114.6 

126.3 

129.9 

115.2 

Feb. 

46.4 

30.8 

39.1 

40.9 

39.9 

40.0 

49.1 

49.6 

54.9 

51.6 

55.6 

60.5 

63.1 

56.2 

63.7 

68.2 

62.9 

71.3 

74.6 

79.5 

86.7 

95.0 

99.0 

104.3 

110.2 

108.8 

108.0 

115.3 

127.8 

129.6 

112.7 

Mar. Apr. 

4 7. INDEX 

46.1 

34.0 

39.3 

40.4 

39.1 

41.3 

49.4 

49.7 

55.3 

51.3 

56.9 

60.5 

63.1 

55.5 

64.7 

67.6 

63.3 

71.7 

75.1 

79.5 

87.8 

96.3 

98.5 

104.7 

110.8 

108.8 

108.0 

116.5 

128.5 

130.0 

111.7 

45.2 

33.4 

39.0 

40.5 

1 38.9 

42.7 

49.4 

49.3 

55.6 

51.0 

57.5 

61.0 

62.2 

54.6 

66.0 

67.0 

64.6 

71.9 

75.8 

80.8 

88.2 

96.5 

99.2 

104.9 

110.6 

108.6 

108.5 

117.7 

128.5 

129.9 

112.6 

May June July 

OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, 

(1967=100) 

44.0 

32.1 

39.2 

41.2 

38.3 

43.7 

49.3 

48.8 

55.9 

51.3 

58.5 

60.5 

62.0 

55.1 

67.0 

67.0 

65.6 

71.8 

76.7 

81.3 

88.9 

97.4 

98.7 

106.2 

110.3 

108.3 

109.1 

118.1 

129.6 

131.3 

113.7 

43.0 

34.1 

39.2 

41.7 

38.3 

45.0 

49.0 

48.4 

55.6 

51.4 

58.5 

59.9 

62.1 

56.5 

67.1 

66.1 

66.5 

71.6 

76.9 

81.5 

89.6 

97.9 

98.4 

106.6 

111.2 

108.1 

109.6 

118.7 

129.9 

131.9 

116.4 

42.0 

35.3 

38.9 

41.7 

38.2 

46.4 

48.3 

47.6 

56.3 

51.5 

59.0 

58.1 

62.5 

57.4 

65.5 

65.9 

67.3 

72.3 

76.6 

82.0 

90.4 

98.4 

98.7 

106.5 

111.8 

108.4 

109.8 

119.3 

130.4 

131.8 

118.4 

Aug. 

TOTAL 

37.6 

36.6 

39.2 

41.6 

38.6 

47.9 

47.8 

50.7 

56.0 

51.4 

58.9 

60.5 

62.5 

58.5 

63.3 

65.8 

67.9 

72.4 

76.8 

82.6 

90.8 

98.5 

100.0 

107.1 

112.3 

108.3 

108.9 

120.7 

130.4 

131.7 

121.0 

Sept. 

34.3 

37.3 

39.5 

41.2 

38.9 

47.6 

48.1 

52.5 

54.9 

51.5 

59.3 

61.8 

62.0 

59.1 

63.2 

65.1 

67.8 

72.8 

77.5 

82.9 

91.1 

99.4 

100.3 

107.1 

112.3 

107.6 

110.3 

121.8 

131.1 

131.8 

122.1 

47-C. CHANGE IN INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, TOTAL, OVER 1-MONTH 

-49.5 

16.8 

6.1 

-8.5 

23.7 

2.5 

15.8 

4.5 

-8.9 

33.3 

8.2 

-3.8 

-20.4 

19.0 

37.5 

1.9 

-9.7 

10.3 

11.3 

15.0 

12.2 

2.4 

2.3 

8.0 

-20.5 

10.6 

27.5 

4.9 

-12.1 

-34.3 

-2.6 

-45.5 

6.3 

3.0 

-11.3 

3.0 

7.6 

7.6 

6.8 

4.8 

16.4 

-11.2 

12.1 

-22.4 

25.6 

-10.0 

-1.9 

20.5 

13.8 

7.9 

7.2 

7.9 

-9.2 

7.2 

7.9 

-3.3 

-1.1 

7.6 

15.2 

-2.7 

-23.1 

-7.5 

227.4 

6.3 

-13.7 

-21.6 

46.8 

7.6 

2.4 

9.1 

-6.8 

32.0 

0.0 

0.0 

-14.0 

20.6 

-10.1 

7.9 

6.9 

8.3 

0.0 

16.3 

17.7 

-5.9 

4.7 

6.7 

0.0 

0.0 

13.2 

6.8 

3.8 

-10.1 

47-C. CHANGE IN I 

-33!4 

9.8 

5.0 

-10.3 

16.5 

11.3 

10.3 

6.0 

-10.8 

21.1 

0.0 

8.7 

-20.9 

15.1 

36.5 

-7.3 

6.4 

7.9 

5.7 

12.4 

11.7 

-1.6 

6.8 

6.0 

-9.0 

12.8 

15.2 

11.4 

-5.9 

-33.7 

-3.5 

9.7 

-2.0 

-14.0 

23.2 

5.9 

8.5 

6.8 

-3.8 

27.0 

-1.3 

2.6 

-19.0 

21.7 

3.6 

2.6 

5.2 

10.8 

6.3 

12.8 

12.5 

-4.3 

4.7 

7.6 

-8.4 

3.0 

15.8 

8.9 

-3.9 

-23.1 

-10.7 

12.9 

1.0 

-2.9 

-13.2 

31.2 

5.0 

0.0 

7.5 

-3.1 

20.3 

-0.7 

-1.9 

-18.1 

24.4 

-10.1 

10.6 

10.0 

11.3 

9.4 

9.6 

9.2 

-2.4 

4.7 

4.1 

-1.8 

1.5 

11.3 

7.2 

0.0 

-8.7 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

-21.1 

-19.2 

-8.8 

3.0 

-6.0 

49.2 

0.0 

-9.2 

6.7 

-6.8 

13.4 

10.4 

-15.8 

-17.8 

27.0 

-10.1 

27.6 

3.4 

11.8 

21.5 

5.6 

2.5 

8.9 

2.3 

-2.1 

-2.2 

5.7 

13.1 

0.0 

-0.9 

10.1 

-27.6 

-37.9 

6.3 

22.8 

-17.0 

32.0 

-2.4 

-11.5 

6.7 

7.3 

23.0 

-9.4 

-3.8 

11.6 

19.8 

0.0 

20.2 

-1.7 

15.2 

7.7 

9.9 

11.8 

-5.9 

15.9 

-3.2 

-3.3 

6.8 

4.2 

10.8 

13.7 

12.4 

-24.1 

106.5 

0.0 

15.6 

0.0 

42.2 

-7.1 

-9.4 

-6.3 

2.4 

0.0 

-11.3 

2.0 

35.1 

1.8 

-15.0 

17.8 

-3.3 

3.2 

3.0 

9.9 

6.3 

-3.6 

4.6 

10.2 

-2.2 

5.6 

6.3 

2.8 

5.6 

32.5 

-24.6 

51.4 

-8.8 

0.0 

-3.1 

44.4 

-15.9 

-18.1 

16.2 

2.4 

10.8 

-30.7 

8.0 

20.9 

-25.1 

-3.6 

15.4 

12.4 

-4.6 

7.6 

11.3 

6.3 

3.7 

-1.1 

6.7 

3.4 

2.2 

6.2 

4.7 

-0.9 

22.7 

-73.5 

54.3 

9.7 

-2.8 

13.3 

46.5 

-11.7 

113.2 

-6.2 

-2.3 

-2.0 

62.5 

0.0 

25.6 

-33.6 

-1.8 

11.2 

1.7 

3.2 

9.1 

5.4 

1.2 

17.0 

7.0 

5.5 

-1.1 

-9.4 

15.0 

0.0 

-0.9 

29.8 

-66.8 

25.5 

9.6 

-10.9 

9.7 

-7.3 

7.8 

52.0 

-21.2 

2.4 

a.5 

29.1 

-9.2 

13.0 

-1.9 

-12.0 

-1.8 

6.8 

11.5 

4.4 

4.0 

11.5 

3.7 

0.0 

0.0 

-7.5 

16.6 

11.5 

6.6 

0.9 

11.5 

NDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, TOTAL, OVER 3-MONTH 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

-19.1 

18.0 

1.0 

3.0 

-15.1 

42.5 

1.6 

-6.3 

7.5 

-2.3 

22.6 

0.0 

-6.8 

-7.6 

22.4 

-6.9 

18.3 

2.8 

11.7 

9.4 

10.5 

10.5 

-1.2 

7.5 

0.4 

-1.8 

4.1 

10.1 

5.8 

5.4 

3.6 

-24.3 

1.2 

-1.0 

13.5 

-7.9 

40.9 

-3.2 

-10.1 

2.2 

0.8 

11.7 

-3.9 

-6.2 

7.4 

15.7 

-8.6 

21.8 

-0.6 

9.9 

10.4 

8.5 

6.8 

-0.4 

7.5 

1.5 

-2.5 

6.1 

7.8 

4.4 

6.0 

17.9 

-25.5 

24.8 

-1.0 

12.4 

-7.0 

39.4 

-8.6 

-13.1 

5.1 

4.0 

10.9 

-17.7 

1.9 

22.1 

-3.0 

-6.4 

17.8 

2.2 

4.3 

6.1 

10.4 

8.1 

-2.0 

6.2 

4.4 

-0.7 

4.9 

5.5 | 

6.0 

6.0 

22.3 

-46.7 

69.0 

0.0 

3.9 

3.2 

44.3 

-11.6 

16.5 

0.7 

0.8 

2.8 

0.0 

3.3 

27.1 

-20.3 

-7.0 

14.8 

3.4 

0.5 

6.6 

8.8 

4.6 

5.4 

3.4 

7.5 

0.0 

-0.7 

9.1 

2.5 

1.2 

28.3 

-59.5 

43.2 

3.1 

-4.7 

6.4 

25.2 

-7.1 

38.4 

-4.9 

0.8 

5.6 

13.3 

-0.6 

19.7 

-21.3 

-5.9 

8.1 

6.9 

3.2 

7.0 

6.9 

6.3 

7.9 

1.9 

4.0 

-1.8 

2.6 

10.9 

3.7 

-0.3 

21.1 

-62.3 

34.3 

10.7 

-1.0 

-7.1 

13.6 

-1.6 

53.7 

-12.8 

4.7 

9.1 

33.1 

-8.7 

17.8 

-16.0 

-5.4 

11.1 

3.4 

8.1 

-1.5 

7.3 

7.1 1 

10.5 

3.4 

2.5 

-10.6 

4.1 

14.5 

3.1 

-6.8 

13.5 

Oct. 

32.9 

38.0 

39.9 

41.6 

37.5 

47.9 

48.1 

53.0 

54.4 

52.1 

60.3 

62.4 

61.1 

59.8 

62.7 

65.0 

69.1 

72.9 

78.1 

81.7 

92.0 

100.1 

101.2 

107.4 

112.5 

105.4 

110.9 

123.4 

131.4 

129.5 

122.2 

SPANS' 

-39.4 

25.0 

12.9 

12.3 

-35.6 

7.8 

0.0 

12.0 

-10.4 

14.9 

22.2 

12.3 

-16.1 

15.2 

-9.1 

-1.8 

25.6 

1.7 

9.7 

-16.1 

12.5 

8.8 

11.3 

3.4 

2.2 

-22.0 

6.7 

17.0 

2.8 

-19.0 

1.0 

SPANS' 

-32.4 

18.7 

12.8 

-5.6 

-1.0 

-0.8 

5.1 

29.6 

-19.2 

13.0 

11.3 

8.9 

-17.3 

22.1 

-1.3 

-9.9 

14.3 

4.5 

8.6 

8.0 

7.2 

3.7 

10.8 

5.7 

-3.2 

-12.3 

9.1 

12.8 

3.7 

-19.1 

8.5 

Nov. 

34.1 

38.2 

40.4 

41.0 

38.5 

47.8 

48.4 

54.1 

53.1 

53.0 

60.5 

61.8 

59.6 

61.5 

63.1 

64.1 

70.2 

73.2 

78.4 

84.2 

92.4 

99.4 

102.6 

108.6 

111.4 

104.8 

111.3 

124.4 

131.6 

124.9 

123.5 

53.7 

6.5 

16.1 

-16.0 

37.1 

-2.5 

7.7 

28.0 

-25.2 

22.8 

4.1 

-10.9 

-25.8 

40.0 

7.9 

-15.4 

20.9 

5.1 

4.7 

43.6 

5.3 

-8.1 

17.9 

14.3 

-11.1 

-6.6 

4.4 

10.2 

1.8 

-35.2 

13.5 

0.0 

12.3 

11.6 

-5.7 

3.1 

9.6 

5.1 

15.3 

-20.7 

17.3 

9.8 

6.0 

-20.7 

18.0 

26.3 

-12.8 

18.9 

2.2 

4.2 

11.6 

11.0 

0.8 

13.4 

6.5 

-3.9 

-1.5 

7.5 

13.8 

0.6 

-32.9 

7.7 

Dec. 

34.3 

38.4 

40.6 

40.6 

39.2 

48.7 

48.7 

54.4 

51.8 

53.6 

60.7 

62.7 

58.5 

61.6 

67.0 

62.9 

70.8 

73.2 

78.3 

85.2 

93.5 

99.6 

103.5 

108.8 

111.2 

107.2 

112.3 

125.8 

131.3 

119.3 

124.4 

7.3 

6.5 

6.1 

-11.1 

24.1 

25.1 

7.7 

6.9 

-25.7 

14.5 

4.0 

18.9 

-20.0 

2.0 

105.4 

-20.3 

10.8 

0.0 

-1.5 

15.2 

15.3 

2.4 

11.0 

2.2 

-2.1 

31.2 

11.3 

14.4 

-2.7 

-42.3 

9.1 

-5.9 

9.8 

9.3 

-11.9 

28.2 

7.7 

10.4 

12.6 

-20.3 

23.3 

5.4 

0.6 

-22.1 

19.3 

45.0 

-11.8 

6.5 

5.0 

4.7 

23.9 

10.9 

-1.2 

10.3 

8.1 

-11.6 

10.6 

14.0 

9.7 

-4.5 

-37.4 

12.0 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

46.3 

32.4 

39.1 

40.7 

39.8 

40.4 

49.1 

49.5 

54.9 

51.4 

55.8 

60.7 

62.9 

56.4 

63.6 

b8.2 

63.1 

71.1 

74.5 

79.3 

86.9 

95.2 

99.1 

104.2 

110.2 

108.9 

108.0 

115.5 

127.5 

129.8 

113.2 

44.1 

9.8 

-1.5 

-13.8 

24.5 

5.9 

8.6 

6.8 

-3.6 

27.2 

-1.0 

2.8 

-18.9 

21.7 

5.8 

2.6 

5.9 

10.8 

6.4 

12.8 

12.6 

-4.2 

4.7 

7.5 

-7.9 

3.2 

16.1 

f 9.0 

-3.7 

-22.5 

-8*.0 

6.8 

0.0 

-12.5 

23.6 

7.4 

6.3 

6.8 

-5.9 

22.8 

-0.7 

3.1 

-19.3 

20.4 

10.0 

2.0 

7.2 

10.0 

7.1 

11.6 

11.1 

-2.8 

5.4 

5.9 

-6.4 

5.8 

14.1 

9.2 

-3.3 

-21.8 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

44.1 38.0 

33.2 36.4 

39.1 39.2 

41.1 41.5 

38.5 38.6 

43.8 47.3 

49.2 48.1 

48.8 50.3 

55.7 55.7 

51.2 51.5 

58.2 59.1 

60.5 60.1 

62.1 62.3 

55.4 58.3 

66.7 64.0 

66.7 65.6 

65.6 67.7 

71.8 72.5 

76.5 77.0 

81.2 82.5 

88.9 90.8 

97.3 98.8 

98.8 99.7 

105.9 106.9 

110.7 112.1 

108.3 108.1 

109.1 109.7 

118.2 120.6 

129.3 130.6 

131.0 131.8 

114.2 120.5 

AVERAGE FOR 

-24.3 -55.0 

16.5 43.7 

-0.8 3.5 

13.8 -4.6 

-7.7 6.6 

41.1 27.9 

-3.2 -6.6 

-10.0 49.0 

2.4 -3.7 

1.0 0.8 

12.1 5.8 

-3.4 20.3 

-5.9 -0.4 

9.6 19.8 

16.2 -20.2 

-8.4 -5.8 

21.9 8.3 

-0.5 7.0 

10.1 3.4 

10.7 7.0 

8.5 b.9 

6.9 6.3 

-0.2 8.1 

7.6 2.0 

1.6 4.1 

-2.6 -1.7 

6.0 3.1 

7.9 10.9 

4.5 3.8 

6.1 -0.3 

18.3 21.3 

AVERAGE FOR 

-23.0 -56.2 

14.7 48.8 

-0.3 4.6 

9.6 -0.6 

-10.0 0.8 

40.9 27.7 

-3.4 -6.8 

-9.8 36.2 

4.9 -5.7 

0.8 2.1 

15.1 5.8 

-7.2 15.5 

-3.7 -2.0 

7.3 21.5 

11.7 -19.2 

-7.3 -6.1 

19.3 11.3 

1.5 4.6 

8.6 3.9 

8.6 4.0 

9.8 7.7 

8.5 6.0 

-1.2 7.9 

7.1 2.9 

2.1 4.7 

-1.7 -4.1 

5.0 2.0 

7.8 11.5 

5.4 3.1 

5.8 -2.0 

14.6 21.0 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

33.8 

38.2 

40.3 

41.1 

38.4 

48.1 

48.4 

53.8 

53.1 

52.9 

60.5 

62.3 

59.7 

61.0 

64.3 

64.0 

70.0 

73.1 

78.3 

83.7 

92.6 

99.7 

102.4 

108.3 

111.7 

105.8 

111.5 

124.5 

131.4 

124.6 

123.4 

PERIOD 

7.2 

12.7 

11.7 

-4.9 

8.5 

10.1 

5.1 

15.6 

-20.4 

17.4 

10.1 

6.8 

-20.6 

19.1 

34.7 

-12.5 

19.1 

2.3 

4.3 

14.2 

11.0 

1.0 

13.4 

6.6 

-3.7 

0.9 

7.5 

13.9 

0.6 

-32.2 

7.9 

PERIOD 

-12.8 

13.6 

11.2 

-7.7 

10.1 

5.5 

6.9 

19.2 

-20.1 

17.9 

8.8 

5.2 

-20.0 

19.8 

23.3 

-11.5 

13.2 

3.9 

5.8 

14.5 

9.7 

1.1 

11.5 

6.8 

-6.2 

-1.1 

10.2 

12.1 

-0.1 

-29.8] 

9.4 

Annual 

40.7 

35.0 

39.4 

41.1 

38.8 

44.9 

48.7 

50.6 

54.8 

51.9 

58.5 

61.1 

61.9 

57.9 

64.8 

66.2 

66.7 

72.2 

76.5 

81.7 

89.8 

97.8 

100.0 

106.3 

111.1 

107.8 

109.6 

119.7 

129.8 

129.3 

117.8 

29*2 

6.0 

0.7 

-1.6 

25.9 

0.3 

15.8 

-3.7 

3.9 

13.8 

! 5.7 

I -6.0 

7.4 

1 13.1 

-5.2 

13.0 

3.6 

7.1 

9.6 

9.8 

6.7 

4.3 

5.2 

2.4 

-2.8 

5.0 

| 12.2 

4.5 

-7.5 

6.3 

17*. 3 

5.6 

0.3 

-2.9 

24.4 

1.0 

13.0 

-3.5 

3.7 

13.1 

3.2 

-5.6 

7.3 

9.1 

-3.7 

11.5 

4.3 

7.1 

8.6 

9.7 

6.7 

3.9 

5.5 

1.6 

-3.3 

5.8 

11.4 

4.4 

-7.3 

5.8 

'Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 

Quarterly 

I Q II Q IIIQ IVQ 

Annual 

1945. 

1946., 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

196b. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

1945.. 

1946.. 

1947.. 

1948.. 

1949.. 

1950.. 

1951.. 

1952.. 

1953.. 

1954.. 

1955.. 

1956.. 

1957.. 

1958.. 

1959. . 

I960.. 

1961.. 

1962.. 

1963.. 

1964. . 

1965.. 

1966.. 

1967.. 

1968.. 

1969.. 

1970.. 

1971.. 

1972., 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

4 8. EMPLOYEE HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF EMPLOYEE HOURS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

92.09 

93.69 

92.56 

89.22 

98.83 

100.62 

103.97 

100.64 

101.37 

107.00 

107.87 

105.05 

106.27 

110.12 

107.76 

109.91 

113.18 

114.62 

120.72 

126.32 

131.21 

131.39 

136.95 

139.42 

137.87 

141.10 

146.38 

150.71 

147.79 

92.19 

93.36 

92.35 

88.90 

99.14 

101.14 

104.46 

101.00 

101.99 

107.24 

108.68 

103.27 

106.47 

110.31 

107.88 

111.43 

113.34 

116.46 

121.26 

127.25 

130.24 

132.92 

136.55 

137.94 

136.76 

141.89 

147.72 

151.28 

146.14 

92.20 

93.94 

91.51 

90.63 

99.77 

100.55 

104.86 

100.65 

103.26 

106.97 

108.38 

102.93 

107.48 

109.75 

107.96 

112.06 

113.34 

116.83 

121.68 

128.00 

130.13 

132.77 

137.48 

139.33 

137.67 

142.06 

148.52 

151.20 

145.47 

91.73 

92.92 

91.33 

91.27 

99.96 

100.18 

104.64 

100.35 

103.30 

107.32 

107.78 

101.98 

108.18 

110.45 

107.49 

112.58 

114.20 

116.76 

121.76 

127.96 

130.05 

133.08 

138.09 

138.88 

137.82 

143.06 

148.92 

149.32 

145.66 

91.84 

93.60 

90.82 

92.59 

100.02 

100.68 

104.27 

99.81 

104.52 

107.25 

107.82 

102.24 

108.92 

110.14 

108.34 

112.84 

114.58 

117.31 

122.51 

128.30 

130.48 

133.73 

138.74 

138.26 

138.32 

143.08 

149.16 

151.70 

145.76 

92.15 

94.10 

89.89 

93.53 

99.96 

99.87 

104.32 

99.79 

104.69 

107.52 

107.68 

102.27 

109.24 

109.99 

108.96 

112.94 

114.85 

117.44 

122.50 

129.27 

130.63 

134.28 

139.15 

138.00 

138.42 

143.85 

149.67 

151.66 

145.34 

91.65 

94.36 

89.55 

94.56 

100.00 

99.46 

104.34 

99.67 

104.99 

106.32 

107.78 

102.59 

108.92 

109.99 

109.34 

112.96 

115.09 

117.86 

122.88 

129.21 

130.87 

134.91 

139.17 

138.21 

137.77 

143.68 

149.96 

151.57 

145.60 

91.36 

94.13 

89.61 

96.60 

99.68 

100.99 

103.57 

99.50 

105.22 

107.63 

107.90 

103.14 

107.94 

109.90 

109.79 

113.17 

115.08 

118.20 

123.45 

129.66 

131.23 

134.96 

139.65 

137.76 

138.19 

144.15 

149.91 

151.52 

146.88 

91.87 

93.84 

89.59 

96.42 

99.35 

102.60 

102.70 

99.56 

105.86 

107.69 

107.38 

10'-.31 

107.84 

109.51 

109.34 

113.68 

115.51 

118.00 

123.56 

129.60 

131.89 

135.44 

139.80 

137.08 

138.32 

144.93 

150.34 

151.55 

147.45 

92.35 

93.51 

87.99 

97.08 

99.37 

102.93 

103.40 

99.94 

106.03 

108.21 

106.23 

104.29 

10 7.63 

109.19 

110.17 

113.12 

115.92 

118.52 

124.36 

130.11 

131.80 

135.80 

139.99 

136.70 

138.94 

145.31 

150.24 

152.51 

148.41 

92.74 

93.69 

88.55 

97.51 

99.74 

103.21 

102.41 

101.06 

106.59 

108.39 

105.92 

105.25 

.108.12 

109.66 

110.93 

113.42 

115.73 

119.48 

125.04 

130.48 

132.65 

135.77 

140.20 

136.36 

139.55 

146.25 

151.70 

149.80 

148.59 

93.11 

93.42 

88.92 

97.32 

100.18 

104.21 

101.79 

101.33 

106.94 

108.64 

105.69 

105.62 

109.79 

106.96 

110.75 

113.18 

115.72 

120.33 

125.73 

130.64 

132.99 

136.38 

141.50 

137.19 

140.25 

145.89 

151.42 

148.37 

149.51 

CHANGE IN EMPLOYEE HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

7.7 

-10.5 

4.1 

20.3 

5.4 

-2.7 

-12.7 

0.5 

0.7 

-8.2 

-7.0 

7.6 

3.7 

9.4 

-8.7 

0.0 

-10.8 

1.3 

-4.1 

-2.7 

-4.2 

3.8 

6.4 

5.8 

4.4 

7.6 

2.7 

4.0 

5.8 

5.4 

-13.5 

5.1 

-16.3 

6.1 

7.5 

4.1 

-5.5 

-4.6 

5.5 

9.2 

-8.5 

14.9 

-3.4 

-12.0 

-9.2 

6.9 

11.6 

4.6 

-12.6 

0.1 

7.7 

-10.4 

26.0 

7.9 

-6.8 

4.7 

-4.1 

16.0 

-3.0 

-3.3 

-3.9 

12.0 

-5.9 

0.9 

7.0 

0.0 

3.9 

4.2 

7.3 

-1.0 

-1.3 

8.5 

12.8 

8.3 

1.4 

6.7 

-0.6 

-5.4 

-5.9 

-12.3 

-2.3 

8.8 

2.3 

-4.3 

-2.5 

-3.5 

0.5 

4.0 

-6.4 

-10.5 

8.1 

7.9 

-5.1 

5.7 

9.5 

-0.7 

0.8 

-0.4 

-0.7 

2.8 

5.5 

-3.8 

1.3 

8.8 

3.3 

-13.9 

1.6 

1.4 

9.1 

-6.5 

18.8 

0.7 

6.2 

15.1 

-0.8 

4 . 1 

6 . 6 

11.6 

12.9 

-0. 7 

-9. 2 

0 . 6 

-0. 2 

-6. 3 

3 . 4 

-4. 4 

14.0 

0 . 5 

-4. 8 

0 . 2 

-1. 4 

2.0 

3.1 

-1.5 

0.4 

3.6 

-1.6 

7.1 

1.1 

2.9 

1.3 

7.6 

3.2 

4.0 

6.0 

5.8 

-5.2 

4.4 

0.2 

1.9 

20.9 

0.8 

-0.3 

-3.4 

3.5 

-12.6 

1.1 

3.8 

-3.5 

0.0 

4.3 

0.2 

2.5 

4.4 

3.8 

-0.6 

2.2 

5.8 

0.2 

1.8 

-5.5 

-1.4 

2.3 

-0.7 

2.7 

15.8 

1.3 

6.6 

-10.3 

-1.0 

5.1 

2.3 

-0.1 

3.5 

5.7 

4.3 

3.3 

0.4 

4.2 

-3.8 

3.7 

4.0 

-0.4 

-0.4 

11.1 

6.9 

-3.6 

-0.3 

-2.2 

-3.9 

20.9 

-9.6 

0.7 

7.5 

0.7 

-5.6 

14.5 

-1.1 

-4.2 

-4.8 

5.5 

4.6 

-2.0 

1.1 

-0.6 

6.2 

4.4 

1.3 

-5.8 

1.1 

6.7 

3.5 

0.2 

4.8 

6.5 

-4.1 

-19.4 

8.5 

0.2 

3.9 

8.5 

4.7 

1.9 

6.0 

-12.1 

4.3 

5.4 

8.1 

4.8 

-0.8 

3.2 

1.6 

-3.3 

5.5 

3.2 

-0.8 

7.9 

8.1 

5.2 

2.3 

7.9 

5.4 

4.6 

3.3 

-10.9 

14.3 

-3.4 

11.6 

5.6 

5.3 

8.6 

3.2 

-1.9 

10.2 

6.8 

3.5 

8.0 

-0.3 

1.8 

-2.9 

5.4 

8.0 

12.3 

-19.4 

1.5 

4.9 

-3.4 

5.1 

-2.3 

5.4 

12.3 

-7.0 

3.3 

4.0 

2.8 

-2.6 

4.3 

20.2 

-25.9 

-1.9 

-2.5 

-0.1 

8.9 

6.8 

1.5 

3 

5 

11 

7.6 

6.2 

-2.9 

-2.2 

-10.9 

7.7 

92.16 

93.66 

92.14 

89.58 

99.25 

100.77 

104.43 

100.76 

102.21 

107.07 

108.31 

103.75 

106.74 

110.06 

107.87 

111.13 

113.29 

115.97 

121.22 

127.19 

130.53 

132.36 

136.99 

138.90 

137.43 

141.68 

147.54 

151.06 

146.47 

91.91 

93.54 

90.68 

92.46 

99.98 

100.24 

104.41 

99.98 

104.17 

107.36 

107.76 

102.16 

108.78 

110.19 

108.26 

112.79 

114.54 

117.17 

122.26 

128.51 

130.39 

133.70 

138.66 

138.38 

138.19 

143.33 

149.25 

150.89 

145.59 

91.63 

94.11 

89.58 

95.86 

99.68 

101.02 

103.54 

99.58 

105.36 

107.21 

107.69 

103.35 

108.23 

109.80 

109.49 

113.27 

115.23 

118.02 

123.30 

129.49 

131.33 

135.10 

139.54 

137.68 

138.09 

144.25 

150.07 

151.55 

146.64 

92.73 

93.54 

88.49 

97.30 

99.76 

103.45 

102.53 

100.78 

106.52 

108.41 

105.95 

105.05 

108.51 

108.60 

110.62 

113.24 

115.79 

119.44 

125.04 

130.41 

132.48 

135.98 

140.56 

136.75 

139.58 

145.82 

151.12 

150.23 

148.84 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

3.8 

-7.9 

8.6 

10.7 

1.7 

2.6 

-4.1 

8.0 

0.1 

-0.7 

-9.8 

7.3 

0.0 

3.9 

5.4 

0.6 

4.7 

4.6 

7.4 

-0.1 

1.1 

-6.8 

13.5 

5.9 

2.1 

1.7 

5.3 

7.5 

-0.5 

-7.5 

2.8 

4.1 

1.6 

4.6 

5.0 

-3.7 

2.2 

5.2 

3.1 

2.2 

-0.3 

-1. 0 

-1. 0 

-1. 3 

13.7 

-2. 4 

12.1 

-6. 0 

-0. 9 

4 . 6 

1 . 3 

-1. 1 

8 . 3 

-5. 0 

-1. 7 

1 . 5 

2 . 7 

2 . 3 

2 . 0 

3 . 5 

1 . 0 

3 . 9 

3 . 5 

1 . 9 

-2. 6 

-0. 2 

3 . 1 

1 . 8 

-0. 3 

6 . 0 

5 . 5 

-1. 7 

-2. 1 

3 . 9 

3 . 4 

6 . 5 

-3. 1 

7 . 4 

4 . 1 

3 . 6 

-6. 0 

5 . 2 

7 . 8 

-8. 0 

5 . 4 

-1. 7 

0 . 8 

8 . 2 

7 . 2 

3 . 3 

3 . 4 

2 . 8 

5 . 0 

0 . 5 

5 . 7 

2 . 8 

3 . 1 

-7. 5 

5 . 8 

0 . 5 

-4. 5 

9 . 9 

3 . 1 

4 . 4 

-2. 1 

-0. 2 

5 . 6 

1 . 8 

-2. 6 

1 0.4 

1 4.2 

| -2. 2 

3 . 7 

2 . 4 

2 . 3 

4 . 2 

4 . 5 

4 . 0 

1 . 9 

2 . 7 

3 . 8 

-2. 8 

2.4 

4 . 1 

3 . 9 

-1. 5 

1 . 0 

92.11 

93.71 

90.22 

93.80 

99.67 

101.37 

103.73 

100.27 

104.56 

107.51 

107.43 

103.58 

108.07 

109.66 

109.06 

112.61 

114.71 

117.65 

122.95 

128.90 

131.18 

134.29 

138.94 

137.93 

138.32 

143.77 

149.49 

150.93 

146.88 

CHANGE IN EMPLOYEE HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS ' 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

1945., 

1946., 

1947., 

1948., 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

3.7 

2.5 

1.1 

-9. 6 

4.7 

8.4 

-6. 3 

1.8 

-0. 3 

2.5 

6.1 

7.3 

-1. 1 

-9. 4 

7 . 8 

0.1 

-1. 0 

-10. 0 

7.2 

-0. 1 

3.8 

4.8 

0 . 6 

3.9 

4.6 

7.4 

-1. 6 

-0. 7 

3.3 

-6. 0 

1.4 

5.3 

7.4 

-0. 6 

-7. 6 

7.8 

1.2 

-0. 3 

-11. 2 

7.4 

1.2 

-1. 0 

10.1 

3.7 

7.7 

-1. 5 

1.0 

-6. 5 

17.7 

3.6 

-1. 8 

-0. 7 

-4. 6 

10.3 

0.0 

-0. 2 

0.7 

-6. 9 

4.2 

3.3 

0.7 

2.5 

6.6 

0.9 

4.6 

3.4 

4.0 

1.1 

-1. 0 

5.7 

2.1 

-2. 6 

-2. 5 

6.7 

0.9 

3.8 

3.2 

5.4 

2.1 

2.7 

4.0 

1.5 

4.6 

4.9 

-3. 8 

2.2 

5.1 

3.1 

1.2 

-0. 4 

-0. 3 

6.3 

-7. 6 

15.2 

0.2 

-2. 8 

-1. 1 

-2. 7 

6.7 

-3. 7 

0.0 

2.4 

2.8 

-1. 7 

7.1 

1.4 

3.2 

3.8 

3.7 

4.0 

2.5 

5.6 

3.2 

-1. 9 

-0. 1 

1.7 

2.8 

6.2 

-0. 2 

2.7 

1.4 

0.3 

3.6 

-3. 6 

-0. 9 

5.5 

1.2 

1.8 

3.1 

3.1 

4.3 

2.3 

2.0 

-0. 5 

3.1 

4.5 

0.6 

-1. 1 

8.2 

-5. 0 

-1. 7 

1.4 

2.6 

2.3 

1.9 

3.5 

1.0 

3.9 

3.5 

1.9 

-2. 6 

-0. 3 

3.0 

1.8 

-0. 3 

5.9 

3.1 

-3. 6 

-6. 8 

11.1 

-2. 5 

14.7 

-3. 6 

1.1 

4.0 

7.3 

-5. 6 

6.8 

-4. 7 

-2. 9 

3.1 

0.6 

2.9 

2.3 

4.9 

2.8 

2.9 

2.7 

2.4 

-4. 3 

3.4 

4.6 

0.7 

2.5 

7.9 

6.2 

-1. 9 

-4. 6 

3.8 

0.2 

9.1 

-4. 4 

6.4 

5.3 

2.9 

-7. 1 

5.5 

-1. 8 

-3. 0 

3.8 

3.4 

6.4 

-3. 5 

7.3 

4 . 1 

3.6 

-6. 1 

5.3 

2.6 

4.4 

2.4 

1.6 

-4. 0 

4.0 

6.0 

4.9 

-4. 5 

4.7 

7 . 2 

3 . 2 

3 . 4 

2 . 

5 . .0 

0.3 

5.7 

2.7 

2.9 

-8. 1 

5.7 

5.9 

-4. 0 

5.7 

7.4 

5.1 

4 . 1 

-10. 3 

5.8 

3.7 

-1. 3 

-4. 4 

7.8 

9.6 

-5. 1 

-0. 9 

0.2 

-4. 4 

7.6 

6.5 

3.4 

-1. 2 

3.4 

-1. 6 

3.5 

6.4 

3.0 

1.3 

-11. 8 

5.7 

1.0 

-6. 2 

6.3 

7.4 

1.8 

3.3 

-3. 6 

6.4 

1.3 

-0. 1 

-10. 3 

6.4 

3.2 

-1. 2 

5.6 

1.3 

4.7 

4.7 

6.7 

-1. 9 

1.8 

3.0 

-4. 6 

0.8 

6.0 

6.2 

-1. 8 

-7. 5 

-0. 7 

2.7 

-7. 0 

15.4 

1.5 

-2. 4 

-1. 3 

-3. 6 

7.6 

-0. 5 

-1. 9 

-1. 3 

6.3 

-0. 5 

4.2 

3.3 

4.3 

3.0 

3.5 

3.8 

1.6 

4.2 

4.9 

-1. 6 

2.2 

3.4 

3.3 

2.8 

-0. 5 

-0. 1 

-0. 8 

-4. 4 

14.2 

-2. 1 

9.1 

-4. 1 

-0. 3 

3.7 

3.1 

-2. 1 

6.2 

-4. 4 

-1. 8 

3.3 

1.5 

2.3 

2.4 

4.4 

1.7 

-5. 9 

7.1 

5.9 

-5. 0 

2.9 

-0. 2 

-0. 5 

6.7 

5.4 

3.9 

3.0 

-8. 1 

5.4 

0.1 

-4. 6 

10.2 

2.4 

3.8 

-2. 0 

-0. 3 

5.5 

1.4 

-2. 5 

0.4 

3.6 

-1. 0 

2.3 

2.5 

1.9 

4.2 

4.6 

4.0 

1.2 

3.0 

3.0 

-2. 3 

2.3 

4.2 

3.5 

-1. 6 

0.7 

average^f' ^ ^ SPa "

S : 1 "m

°

n t h Chan96 S ar e Pl3Ce d

 ° n th e TM m0nt h an d 3 "

m0nt h change s ar e

 P1ace d o n th e 3 d TM»TM- Quarterly and annua! figures are 

The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

194 7.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

51-C 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

51-C 

1945.. . 1 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

338. 5 

335. 4 

343. 4 

351. 7 

384. 2 

396. 6 

423. 8 

423. 8 

437. 2 

469. 5 

482. 6 

476. 5 

495. 7 

517. 3 

516. 1 

541. 4 

560. 4 

584. 9 

625. 4 

667. 3 

696. 5 

719. 8 

754. 2 

775. 3 

785. 2 

816. 8 

868. 8 

881. 1 

843. 1 

. CHANGES 

is!i -17. 1 

23. 8 

-9. 5 

-10. 5 

7 . 7 

-10. 2 

3 . 1 

-2. 0 

-5. 5 

-10. 7 

-0. 7 

2 . 8 

10. 0 

-4. 1 

-3. 2 

2 . 3 

0 . 8 

0 . 4 

10. 2 

-1. 2 

0 . 6 

-2. 4 

14. 7 

12. 7 

6 . 4 

-14. 1 

-8. 5 

. CHANGES 

A.6 

-10. 7 

7 . 6 

-1. 5 

4 . 1 

5 . 6 

-6. 4 

4 . 6 

2 . 9 

0 . 0 

-6. 5 

1 . 5 

7 . 0 

0 . 9 

2 . 9 

2 . 3 

7 . 4 

6 . 8 

4 . 4 

3 . 4 

6 . 3 

3 . 5 

0 . 5 

4 . 8 

11. 5 

7 . 5 

-8. 7 

-7. 2 

Feb. Mar. Apr. May 

5 1 . PERSONAL INCOME, LESS 

336. 7 

336. 7 

343. 0 

348. 5 

381. 8 

404. 0 

425. 6 

423. 2 

438. 4 

470. 9 

484. 6 

476. 6 

497. 0 

515. 9 

516. 6 

544. 9 

562. 9 

590. 8 

628. 3 

670. 3 

696. 8 

725. 8 

757. 8 

776. 8 

784. 1 

822. 6 

874. 6 

874. 6 

837. 7 

327. 8 

344. 2 

343. 9 

354. 5 

385. 6 

405. 6 

429. 7 

420. 9 

442. 2 

470. 6 

485. 7 

475. 8 

500. 7 

514. 3 

518. 8 

548. 0 

564. 9 

593. 2 

629. 5 

673. 3 

699. 4 

728. 2 

760. 6 

780. 5 

788. 4 

826. 0 

878. 5 

870. 2 

839. 3 

IN PERSONAL INC 

- 6 ! 2 

4 . 8 

-1. 4 

-10. 4 

-7. 2 

24. 8 

5 . 2 

-1. 7 

3 . 3 

3 . 6 

5 . 1 

0 . 3 

3 . 2 

-3. 2 

1 . 2 

8 . 0 

5 . 5 

12. 8 

5 . 7 

5 . 5 

0 . 5 

10. 5 

5 . 9 

2 . 3 

-1. 7 

8 . 9 

8 . 3 

-8. 5 

-7. 4 

-27. 5 

30. 3 

3 . 2 

22. 7 

12. 6 

4 . 9 

12. 2 

-6. 3 

10. 9 

-0. 8 

2 . 8 

-2. 0 

9 . 3 

-3. 7 

5 . 2 

7 . 0 

4 . 3 

5 . 0 

2 . 3 

5 . 5 

4 . 6 

4 . 0 

4 . 5 

5 . 9 

6 . 8 

5 . 1 

5 . 5 

-5. 9 

2 . 3 

IN PERSONAL INC 

16^2 

-5. 5 

10. 8 

-1. 8 

5 . 4 

8 . 3 

-6. 1 

5 . 7 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

-4. 3 

3 . 8 

-1. 4 

5 . 4 

3 . 5 

2 . 2 

6 . 6 

2 . 9 

3 . 8 

5 . 0 

4 . 3 

3 . 7 

1 . 9 

6 . 4 

8 . 8 

6 . 7 

-9. 5 

-4. 7 

-15. 0 

8 . 5 

-1. 3 

7 . 7 

8 . 4 

7 . 1 

6 . 2 

-4. 5 

8 . 6 

5 . 7 

2 . 6 

-4. 1 

7 . 2 

-0. 2 

3 . 5 

6 . 9 

4.6 1 

9 . 0 

4 . 9 

4 . 9 

2 . 6 

5 . 4 

4 . 4 

4 . 5 

1 . 9 

8 . 0 

4 . 9 

-6. 1 

-2. 0 

(ANNUAL RATE, 

325. 0 

342. 3 

342. 3 

358. 3 

392. 0 

403. 5 

430. 2 

419. 0 

446. 3 

476. 0 

485. 7 

471. 5 

504. 4 

517. 0 

520. 5 

550. 5 

566. 8 

597. 6 

632. 9 

675. 3 

701. 0 

729. 4 

762. 3 

783. 8 

789. 0 

832. 6 

879. 3 

867. 3 

838. 9 

OME, LESS 

326. 9 

343. 0 

342. 8 

362. 8 

392. 1 

408. 4 

432. 4 

421. 1 

451. 1 

474. 1 

484. 7 

473. 4 

507. 6 

519. 6 

522. 7 

551. 8 

568. 2 

601. 9 

638. 6 

677. 0 

701. 7 

734. 7 

765. 3 

783. 5 

790. 4 

834. 1 

880. 1 

866. 6 

842. 9 

June 

TRANSFER 

BILLIONS 

331. 8 

349. 7 

339. 7 

364. 6 

395. 9 

410. 3 

433. 0 

421. 4 

453. 2 

475. 7 

487. 1 

476. 7 

509. 4 

520. 9 

526. 5 

554. 2 

571. 8 

604. 5 

642. 3 

682. 3 

704. 3 

739. 5 

766. 5 

779. 7 

788. 7 

825. 0 

883. 1 

866. 4 

845. 5 

TRANSFER PAYMEN 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, 

-9. 8 

-6. 4 

-5. 4 

13. 6 

21. 8 

-6. 0 

1 . 4 

-5. 3 

11. 7 

14. 7 

0 . 0 

-10. 3 

9 . 2 

6 . 5 

4 . 0 

5 . 6 

4 . 1 

9 . 3 

6 . 7 

3 . 6 

2 . 8 

2 . 0 

2 . 7 

5 . 2 

0 . 9 

10. 0 

1 . 1 

-3. 9 

-0. 6 

OME, LESS 

7 . 2 

2 . 5 

1 . 8 

16. 2 

0 . 3 

15. 6 

6 . 3 

6 . 2 

13. 7 

-4. 7 

-2. 4 

4 . 9 

7 . 9 

6 . 2 

5 . 2 

2 . 9 

3 . 0 

9 . 0 

11. 4 

3 . 1 

1 . 2 

9 . 1 

4 . 8 

-0. 5 

2 . 1 

2 . 2 

1 . 1 

-1. 0 

5 . 9 

19. 5 

26. 1 

-10. 3 

6 . 1 

12. 3 

5 . 7 

1 . 7 

0 . 9 

5 . 7 

4 . 1 

6 . 1 

8 . 7 

4 . 3 

3 . 0 

9 . 1 

5 . 3 

7 . 9 

5 . 3 

7 . 2 

9 . 8 

4 . 5 

8 . 1 

1 . 9 

-5. 7 

-2. 6 

-12. 3 

4 . 2 

-0. 3 

3 . 8 

TRANSFER PAYMEN 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, 

-11." i 

7 . 7 

-0. 2 

17. 5 

11. 2 

4 . 4 

6 . 5 

-2. 0 

12. 1 

2 . 7 

0 . 1 

-2. 7 

8 . 8 

2 . 9 

4 . 8 

5 . 2 

3 . 8 

7 . 7 

6 . 7 

4 . 1 

2 . 8 

5 . 0 

4 . 0 

3 . 5 

3 . 3 

5 . 7 

2 . 5 

-3. 6 

2 . 5 

5 . 0 

6 . 5 

-4. 8 

11. 9 

11. 1 

4 . 7 

3 . 1 

0 . 5 

10. 3 

4 . 4 

1 . 2 

0 . 8 

7 . 1 

5 . 2 

6 . 1 

4 . 6 

5 . 0 

7 . 8 

8 . 4 

5 . 5 

2 . 8 

6 . 4 

3 . 1 

-0. 4 

0 . 2 

-0. 5 

2 . 1 

-1. 7 

3 . 0 

5 . 5 

6 . 7 

-4. 6 

13. 6 

2 . 9 

2 . 7 

1 . 6 

2 . 5 

12. 0 

-4. 5 

1 . 8 

12. 6 

3 . 0 

1 . 7 

5 . 2 

4 . 1 

3 . 5 

6 . 0 

7 . 8 

5 . 6 

3 . 8 

7 . 8 

4 . 5 

-1. 2 

0 . 3 

2 . 9 

3 . 2 

1 . 3 

3 . 5 

July 

PAYMENTS 

Aug. Sept. Oct. 

, IN 197 2 DOLLARS 

OF DOLLARS) 

329! 4 

347. 9 

338. 3 

369. 9 

394. 8 

406. 2 

431. 9 

421. 6 

459. 1 

470. 6 

487. 9 

485. 7 

508. 2 

519. 2 

527. 1 

556. 1 

571. 7 

606. 3 

644. 9 

684. 5 

707. 5 

743. 2 

770. 8 

781. 4 

789. 5 

838. 5 

886. 2 

| 870. 0 

846. 2 

329. 0 

351. 0 

341. 0 

376. 7 

399. 3 

415. 9 

429. 1 

425. 5 

459. 3 

477. 5 

488. 8 

484. 2 

502. 8 

517. 5 

529. 6 

556. 7 

574. 6 

611. 5 

648. 3 

685. 6 

709. 8 

744. 7 

773. 0 

783. 7 

792. 5 

844. 9 

885. 3 

866. 0 

853. 5 

328. 5 

351. 7 

344. 8 

377. 6 

396. 9 

421. 4 

427. 9 

428. 6 

461. 3 

480. 6 

487. 5 

487. 4 

501. 8 

517. 2 

529. 7 

556. 2 

577. 3 

'614. 0 

652. 2 

686. 1 

711. 0 

747. 6 

774. 4 

784. 8 

792. 5 

844. 4 

890. 8 

864. 0 

857. 9 

T S , IN 197 2 DOLLARS, OVEF 

PERCENT) 

-8. 3 

-6. 0 

-4. 8 

18. 9 

-3. 3 

-11. 4 

-3. 0 

0 . 6 

16. 8 

-12. 1 

2 . 0 

25. 2 

-2. 8 

-3. 8 

1 . 4 

4 . 2 

-0. 2 

3 . 6 

5 . 0 

3 . 9 

5 . 6 

6 . 2 

6 . 9 

2 . 6 

1 . 2 

21. 5 

4 . 3 

5 . 1 

1 . 0 

-1. 4 

11. 2 

10. 0 

24. 4 

14. 6 

32. 7 

-7. 5 

11. 7 

0 . 5 

19. 1 

2 . 2 

-3. 6 

-12. 0 

-3. 9 

5 . 8 

1 . 3 

6 . 3 

10. 8 

6 . 5 

1 . 9 

4 . 0 

2 . 4 

3 . 5 

3 . 6 

4 . 7 

9 . 6 

-1. 2 

-5. 4 

10. 9 

-1. 8 

2 . 4 

14. 2 

2 . 9 

-7. 0 

17. 1 

-3. 3 

9 . 1 

5 . 4 

8 . 1 

-3. 1 

8 . 2 

-2. 4 

-0. 7 

0 . 2 

-1. 1 

5 . 8 

5 . 0 

7 . 5 

0 . 9 

2 . 0 

4 . 8 

2 . 2 

1 . 7 

0 . 0 

-0. 7 

7 . 7 

-2. 7 

6 . 4 

T S , IN 197 2 DOLLARS, OVER 

PERCENT) 

2.*6 

9 . 7 

-2. 1 

16. 2 

7 . 5 

7 . 6 

-3. 0 

4 . 2 

7 . 5 

2 . 9 

3 . 4 

9 . 4 

-3. 7 

-1. 6 

5 . 4 

3 . 6 

4 . 6 

6 . 5 

6 . 2 

5 . 2 

4 . 7 

5 . 6 

4 . 1 

0 . 1 

1 . 1 

5 . 3 

2 . 4 

-0. 3 

5 . 1 

-3. 9 

2 . 3 

6 . 1 

15. 0 

1 . 0 

11. 3 

-4. 6 

7 . 0 

7 . 3 

4 . 2 

0 . 3 

9 . 3 

-5. 8 

-2. 8 

2 . 5 

1 . 5 

3 . 9 

6 . 4 

6 . 3 

2 . 2 

3 . 9 

4 . 5 

4 . 2 

2 . 6 

1 . 9 

9 . 7 

3 . 5 

-1. 1 

6 . 0 

3 . 3 

6 . 6 

1 . 2 

11. 8 

5 . 2 

15. 9 

-1. 7 

8 . 5 

5 . 4 

12. 2 

-1. 0 

2 . 4 

-4. 5 

-1. 2 

6 . 0 

0 . 6 

6 . 2 

5 . 1 

9 . 2 

2 . 3 

1 . 6 

3 . 0 

3 . 1 

-2. 7 

3 . 2 

7 . 1 

3 . 1 

-3. 4 

8 . 1 

332. 1 

353. 5 

339. 3 

380. 4 

399. 8 

421. 5 

430. 0 

430. 3 

465. 2 

484. 3 

486. 7 

488. 6 

502. 4 

517. 6 

534. 8 

557. 0 

580. 3 

613. 9 

659. 2 

688. 4 

710. 4 

1 748. 7 

776. 7 

776. 0 

795. 8 

853. 1 

892. 9 

1 862. 4 

862. 8 

1-MONTH 

14. 0 

6 . 3 

-17. 5 

9 . 3 

9 . 1 

0 . 3 

6 . 1 

4 . 9 

10. 6 

9 . 6 

-2. 0 

3 . 0 

1 . 4 

0 . 9 

12. 2 

1 . 7 

6 . 4 

-0. 2 

13. 7 

4 . 1 

-1. 0 

1 . 8 

3 . 6 

-12. 7 

5 . 1 

13. 1 

2 . 9 

-2. 2 

7 . 1 

3-MONTH 

4^8 

2 . 1 

1 . 4 

7 . 1 

0 . 7 

3 . 8 

1 . 1 

7 . 7 

7 . 3 

6 . 1 

-3. 3 

9 . 3 

3 . 6 

-1. 6 

8 . 9 

2 . 2 

4 . 0 

4 . 3 

9 . 4 

3 . 2 

2 . 8 

3 . 6 

1 . 5 

-4. 4 

4 . 2 

6 . 8 

4 . 3 

-5. 6 

6 . 0 

Nov. 

332. 9 

352. 8 

342. 2 

383. 2 

400. 0 

419. 8 

430. 3 

433. 5 

467. 5 

484. 6 

484. 7 

495. 1 

507. 3 

515. 4 

541. 0 

559. 7 

580. 3 

618. 0 

663. 1 

691. 0 

714. 8 

751. 4 

775. 8 

775. 0 

800. 6 

859. 0 

894. 7 

853. 6 

866. 1 

SPANS1 

2 . 9 

-2. 4 

10. 8 

9 . 2 

0 . 6 

-4. 7 

0 . 8 

9 . 3 

6 . 1 

0 . 7 

-4. 8 

17. 2 

12. 4 

-5. 0 

14. 8 

6 . 0 

0 . 0 

8 . 3 

7 . 3 

4 . 6 

7 . 7 

4 . 4 

-1. 4 

-1. 5 

7 . 5 

8 . 6 

2 . 4 

-11. 6 

4 . 7 

SPANS' 

3 . 7 

-3. 3 

0 . 8 

10. 8 

3 . 5 

-0. 2 

-0. 3 

7 . 2 

8 . 0 

3 . 6 

-5. 2 

7 . 2 

11. 9 

-4. 0 

10. 7 

4 . 2 

4 . 6 

7 . 4 

9 . 5 

2 . 8 

5 . 5 

3 . 4 

1 . 3 

-4. 3 

8 . 4 

9 . 8 

0 . 7 

-6. 6 

3 . 8 

Dec. 

33K 5 

348. 8 

345. 5 

387. 4 

400. 3 

421. 2 

427. 6 

436. 1 

470. 3 

484. 9 

481. 0 

496. 0 

516. 1 

512. 0 

543. 3 

561. 9 

583. 8 

625. 0 

667. 1 

690. 9 

720. 5 

753. 8 

776. 9 

776. 3 

808. 7 

864. 3 

892. 3 

849. 4 

865. 9 

-4. 9 

-12. 8 

12. 2 

14. 0 

0 . 9 

4 . 1 

-7. 3 

7 . 4 

7 . 4 

0 . 7 

-8. 8 

2 . 2 

22. 9 

-7. 6 

5 . 2 

4 . 8 

7 . 5 

14. 5 

7 . 5 

-0. 2 

10. 0 

3 . 9 

1 . 7 

2 . 0 

12. 8 

7 . 7 

-3. 2 

-5. 7 

-0. 3 

4.'6 

-10. 9 

15. 4 

4 . 1 

-3. 2 

2 . 2 

-5. 6 

6 . 6 

3 . 7 

-1. 4 

-8. 1 

5 . 9 

12. 4 

-1. 2 

5 . 0 

2.51 

3.2J 

7.71 

5.o| 

4.8l 

5.41 

3.01 

-0.7 1 

4.8 ] 

1 1. ol 

7 .el 

-5.2I 

-8.7I 

3.8 1 

1 Quarterly 

I 1 0 I 

1 334.3 

1 338. 8 

1 343. 4 

1 351. 6 

1 383. 9 

402. 1 

426. 4 

422. 6 

1 439.3 

470. 3 

484. 3 

476. 3 

4y7. 8 

515. 8 

517. 2 

544. 8 

562. 7 

589. 6 

627. 7 

670. 3 

697. 6 

724. 6 

757. 5 

777. 5 

785. 9 

821. 8 

874. 0 

875. 3 

840. 0 

l b ! 7 

-5. 1 

12. 0 

-1. 4 

6 . 4 

8 . 4 

-6. 1 

5 . 8 

0 . 3 

0 . 8 

-4. 1 

3 . 9 

-1. 4 

5 . 5 

3 . 6 

2 . 2 

6 . 7 

2 . 9 

3 . 8 

5 . 1 

4 . 4 

3 . 7 

1 . 9 

6 . 6 

8 . 9 

6 . 7 

-9. 5 

-4. 5 

9 . 8 

-5. 8 

8 . 7 

1 . 7 

5 . 5 

6 . 7 

-5. 7 

6 . 3 

3 . 0 

1 . 1 

-5. 0 

4 . 2 

1 . 8 

3 . 3 

4 . 4 

3 . 0 

7 . 7 

4 . 9 

4 . 4 

3 . 7 

5 . 3 

3 . 9 

2 . 3 

4 . 4 

9 . 4 

6 . 4 

-8. 1 

-4. 6 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

32^ 9 

345. 0 

341. 6 

361. 9 

393. 3 

407. 4 

431. 9 

420. 5 

450. 2 

475. 3 

485. 8 

473. 9 

507. 1 

519. 2 

523. 2 

552. 2 

568. 9 

601. 3 

637. 9 

678. 2 

702. 3 

734. 5 

764. 7 

782. 3 

789. 4 

830. 6 

880. 8 

866. 8 

842. 4 

329. 0 

350. 2 

341. 4 

374. 7 

397. 0 

414. 5 

429. 6 

425. 2 

459. 9 

476. 2 

488. 1 

485. 8 

504. 3 

518. 0 

528. 8 

556. 3 

574. 5 

610. 6 

648. 5 

685. 4 

709. 4 

745. 2 

772. 7 

783. 3 

791. 5 

842. 6 

887. 4 

866. 7 

852. 5 

AVERAGE FOR 

5 . 6 

7 . 4 

-4. 6 

12. 0 

11. 5 

5 . 1 

3 . 1 

0 . 6 

10. 4 

4 . 7 

1 . 2 

1 . 1 

7 . 1 

5 . 2 

6 . 1 

4 . 6 

5 . 0 

7 . 9 

8 . 4 

5 . 5 

2 . 8 

6 . 4 

3 . 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

2 . 1 

-1. 7 

3 . 0 

-3. 8 

2 . 5 

6 . 5 

15. 4 

1 . 4 

12. 8 

-4. 6 

7 . 1 

7 . 6 

5 . 0 

0 . 4 

9 . 9 

-5. 7 

-2. 8 

2 . 5 

1 . 5 

4 . 0 

6 . 5 

6 . 3 

2 . 2 

3 . 9 

4 . 5 

4 . 2 

2 . 6 

2 . 0 

10. 1 

3 . 6 

-1. 0 

6 . 1 

AVERAGE FOR 

-6!2 

7 . 0 

-3. 2 

14. 3 

8 . 4 

3 . 9 

3 . 7 

0 . 3 

11. 5 

0 . 9 

1 . 0 

3 . 6 

6 . 3 

3 . 3 

5 . 4 

4 . 6 

4 . 1 

7 . 2 

7 . 6 

5 . 1 

3 . 1 

6 . 4 

3 . 9 

0 . 6 

1 . 3 

2 . 7 

2 . 6 

-1. 3 

3 . 0 

0 . 7 

6 . 2 

1 . 7 

14. 3 

4 . 6 

11. 6 

-3. 1 

6 . 6 

6 . 7 

6 . 4 

0 . 9 

7 . 0 

-4. 7 

-1. 9 

4 . 6 

1 . 9 

4 . 9 

6 . 0 

7 . 2 

3 . 2 

3 . 4 

4 . 4 

3 . 8 

0 . 0 

2 . 1 

7 . 4 

3 . 0 

-1. 6 

6 . 4 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

332. 2 

351. 7 

342. 3 

383. 7 

400. 0 

420. 8 

429. 3 

433. 3 

467. 7 

484. 6 

484. 1 

493. 2 

508. 6 

515. 0 

539. 7 

559. 5 

581. 5 

619. 0 

663. 1 

690. 1 

715. 2 

751. 3 

776. 5 

775. 8 

801. 7 

858. 8 

893. 3 

855. 1 

864. 9 

PERIOD 

4^0 

-3. 0 

1 . 8 

10. 8 

3 . 5 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

7 . 2 

8 . 0 

3 . 7 

-5. 2 

7 . 5 

12. 2 

-3. 9 

10. 7 

4 . 2 

4 . 6 

7 . 5 

9 . 5 

2 . 8 

5 . 6 

3 . 4 

1 . 3 

-4. 1 

8 . 5 

9 . 8 

0 . 7 

-6. 5 

3 . 8 

PERIOD 

4.*2 

-4. 0 

5 . 9 

7 . 3 

0 . 3 

1 . 9 

-1. 6 

7.2 1 

6.3I 

2.8 l 

-5.5 | 

7.5 l 

9.3 l 

-2.3 | 

8.2 1 

3.0 l 

3.9 | 

6.5 | 

8.0I 

3.6 | 

4 .6 1 

3.3 1 

0.7 l 

-I.3 I 

7.9 1 

8.l l 

-0.1 1 

-7.0 1 

4.5 1 

Annual 

330. 8 

346. 4 

342. 2 

368. 0 

393. 6 

411. 2 

429. 3 

425. 4 

454. 3 

476. 6 

485. 6 

482. 3 

504. 4 

517. 0 

527. 2 

553. 2 

571. 9 

605. 1 

644. 3 

681. 0 

! 706. 1 

738. 9 

767. 9 

779. 7 

792. 1 

838. 4 

883. 9 

866. 0 

850. 0 

5 . 9 

-0. 4 

12. 6 

3 . 8 

6 . 0 

1 . 7 

2 . 2 

7 . 9 

3 . 4 

-0. 7 

3 . 6 

4 . 4 

-0. 7 

6 . 2 

3 . 5 

4 . 0 

7 . 1 

6 . 8 

3 . 6 

4 . 3 

4 . 7 

3 . 1 

0 . 0 

4 . 3 

7 . 2 

3 . 3 

-4. 7 

2 . 1 

4 . 7 

-0. 4 

11. 2 

3 . 8 

5 . 8 

1 . 4 

2 . 1 

7 . 7 

3 . 3 

-0. 6 

3 . 3 

3 . 8 

0 . 2 

5 . 4 

3 . 5 

4 . 0 

6 . 8 

6 . 9 

4 . 1 

3 . 7 

4 . 9 

3 . 1 

0 . 4 

3 . 9 

6 . 9 

3 . 0 

-4. 5 

2 . 3 

'Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

197b... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

i Jan. 

359.2 

355.4 

363.0 

384.1 

404.8 

417.2 

445.7 

447.1 

463.7 

497.5 

512.5 

511.6 

533.6 

555.9 

559.3 

587.0 

612.2 

636.3 

678.8 

721.7 

758.8 

785.9 

827.9 

852.6 

876.5 

916.1 

980.6 

996.2 

972.0 

5 3. WAGE 

9^8 

99.6 

101.4 

97.7 

115.2 

120.7 

134.8 

129.3 

133.8 

147.8 

153.3 

142.5 

148.5 

158.5 

150.0 

159.5 

165.7 

170.6 

184.3 

196.1 

206.9 

209.3 

220.7 

220.4 

210.2 

215.8 

232.3 

232.2 

214.0 

9,583 

10,883 

10,949 

11,339 

13,885 

13,030 

14,352 

13,712 

14,765 

15,495 

16,329 

16,659 

17,583 

18,092 

17,953 

19,009 

20,301 

21,046 

22,918 

24,919 

25,828 

27,123 

29,384 

30,334 

32,290 

34,886 

40,676 

43,114 

45,984 

Feb. 

356.6 

357.0 

363.2 

387.9 

401.8 

424.0 

447.3 

447.3 

464.9 

498.9 

514.8 

511.6 

535.2 

554.6 

562.0 

590.4 

609.7 

639.4 

678.3 

725.0 

760.2 

792.6 

832.3 

854.9 

876.0 

924.8 

986.9 

989.6 

971.4 

Mar. Apr. May 

Monthly 

June 

5 2. PERSONAL INCOME, TOTAL 

347!6 

366.4 

3.66.0 

397.0 

405.4 

425.6 

451.7 

445.7 

469.4 

498.8 

516.3 

512.0 

538.8 

553.6 

563.8 

593.9 

612.0 

642.0 

679.5 

728.1 

764.3 

797.8 

835.0 

859.4 

881.2 

928.5 

990.7 

984.9 

973.6 

AND SALARY INCOM 

95*.8 

99.2 

100.7 

96.6 

114.9 

121.7 

136.2 

129.6 

135.1 

147.9 

154.1 

139.1 

149.6 

158.7 

149.4 

161.0 

165.5 

173.9 

185.9 

198.0 

204.9 

212.7 

220.6 

219.3 

209.3 

217.8 

233.4 

231.2 

208.5 

... 9,852 

10,866 

11,099 

11,589 

13,716 

13,274 

14,325 

14,055 

14,896 

15,370 

16,635 

16,374 

17,712 

18,159 

17,889 

19,011 

20,148 

21,143 

23,063 

24,993 

25,478 

27,487 

29,616 

30,669 

32,850 

35,345 

41,280 

43,278 

46,954 

95.1 

101.1 

98.5 

100.3 

116.5 

122.6 

137.4 

128.9 

137.1 

148.6 

153.5 

138.0 

152.1 

158.0 

150.3 

162.3 

165.8 

174.8 

186.5 

199.5 

205.4 

212.9 

222.2 

219.9 

209.6 

220.0 

233.3 

229.9 

208.2 

5 4. S 

... 9,769 

11,021 

11,191 

11,674 

13,021 

12,890 

14,418 

14,020 

15,005 

15,663 

16,453 

16,319 

17,860 

18,139 

18,078 

19,331 

20,309 

21,296 

22,834 

25,430 

25,758 

28,096 

29,321 

30,695 

33,274 

36,450 

41,594 

43,830 

45,962 

(ANNUAL RATE, 

344*.9 

363.6 

364.2 

388.6 

412.0 

423.6 

452.2 

444.0 

473.3 

504.2 

516.9 

509.2 

542.4 

556.3 

565.0 

595.8 

614.0 

646.8 

683.5 

729.8 

765.1 

799.9 

837.2 

876.7 

882.2 

933.5 

991.4 

985.4 

973.9 

346.3 

362.9 

364.6 

388.0 

412.9 

429.1 

454.3 

446.1 

478.1 

502.5 

517.1 

' 511.9 

545.4 

559.2 

568.3 

597.1 

615.4 

651.1 

688.9 

731.0 

766.1 

805.6 

840.3 

869.0 

883.7 

935.4 

992.2 

984.7 

978.2 

BILLIONS 

351.6 

369.6 

361.7 

388.5 

417.1 

430.8 

455.4 

446.4 

480.6 

504.1 

519.4 

514.6 

547.4 

561.2 

573.3 

599.9 

619.6 

653.6 

692.6 

736.2 

768.8 

810.4 

841.2 

865.7 

899.7 

926.7 

995.0 

984.5 

995.8 

E IN MINING, MANUFACTURE 

(ANNUAL RATE, 

95!i 

98.0 

97.0 

102.9 

118.5 

120.9 

137.5 

128.3 

138.3 

151.0 

152.4 

135.8 

154.1 

157.1 

151.4 

164.1 

166.6 

176.2 

185.5 

201.1 

205.1 

212.9 

222.5 

217.2 

210.6 

221.1 

234.2 

229.6 

207.2 

97.0 

99.5 

96.4 

105.1 

118.1 

121.8 

137.7 

128.4 

140.8 

149.4 

151.3 

135.8 

155.7 

157.7 

152.8 

163.6 

168.1 

176.5 

187.0 

201.6 

204.4 

216.2 

222.9 

214.3 

211.3 

221.4 

233.9 

229.2 

206.9 

BILLIONS 

9^6 

100.2 

94.6 

106.5 

119.0 

120.3 

136.8 

127.9 

141.5 

149.9 

151.8 

137.4 

156.6 

156.2 

154.9 

164.0 

168.6 

177.2 

187.6 

203.6 

205.0 

216.0 

223.7 

214.7 

210.8 

222.0 

234.5 

229.4 

206.1 

ALES OF RETAIL STORES IN 

(MILLIONS 

9,947 

11,210 

11,290 

11,716 

12,735 

13,208 

14,218 

13,991 

15,255 

15,516 

16,493 

16,535 

17,871 

18,615 

17,758 

19,436 

20,397 

21,472 

23,026 

25,084 

25,940 

27,845 

29,683 

31,005 

33,578 

36,296 

41,297 

44,401 

46,948 

10,061 

10,906 

11,223 

11,916 

12,840 

13,708 

14,167 

13,957 

15,260 

15,771 

16,534 

16,517 

18,011 

18,337 

18,025 

19,568 

20,268 

21,762 

23,383 

24,653 

25,966 

28,209 

29,717 

31,198 

33,502 

37,141 

41,655 

44,579 

48,171 

OF DOLLA 

10,146 

11,173 

11,217 

12,345 

12,792 

13,885 

14,146 

14,272 

15,126 

15,797 

16,820 

16,476 

18,175 

18,312 

18,159 

19,317 

20,419 

21,779 

23,243 

25,222 

26,488 

28,326 

29,657 

31,293 

33,827 

36,822 

41,302 

44,896 

48,652 

July Aug. Sept. 

, IN 197 2 DOLLARS 

OF DOLLARS) 

35CK2 

367.6 

361.0 

391.3 

415.6 

427.0 

453.9 

447.2 

486.4 

498.9 

520.1 

524.0 

546.4 

559.6 

574.4 

602.0 

619.1 

655.7 

695.7 

738.7 

772.8 

814.6 

846.0 

868.0 

887.5 

940.3 

998.2 

991.5 

985.8 

348.7 

370.7 

363.8 

397.4 

420.3 

438.3 

451.4 

451.1 

486.7 

506.5 

520.9 

523.0 

540.7 

558.3 

574.8 

602.9 

622.2 

660.8 

698.4 

741.4 

775.0 

817.1 

848.4 

871.4 

890.5 

946.9 

998.1 

987.5 

994.1 

367.3 

371.0 

368.2 

397.6 

417.7 

443.3 

450.0 

454.5 

488.8 

509.6 

519.6 

526.0 

540.3 

558.5 

574.4 

601.9 

625.1 

663.5 

715.9 

744.9 

775.9 

819.9 

849.8 

874.6 

892.7 

946.4 

1004.5 

985.4 

999.3 

Oct. 

354ll 

372.4 

362.3 

401.7 

421.1 

443.1 

453.5 

457.5 

492.8 

513.3 

520.4 

527.2 

541.0 

558.9 

579.5 

604.1 

628.4 

663.4 

712.1 

747.3 

776.0 

821.2 

852.7 

867.1 

895.0 

963.0 

1006.7 

984.9 

1004.5 

Nov. 

353.0 

371.6 

365.4 

403.9 

420.6 

441.4 

452.8 

460.1 

495.0 

513.5 

518.5 

532.6 

546.8 

557.4 

586.0 

606.2 

628.3 

667.3 

716.5 

751.3 

780.6 

824.2 

851.9 

865.4 

901.0 

972.4 

1008.0 

976.8 

1007.1 

G, AND CONSTRUCTION IN 1972 DOLLARS 

OF DOLLARS) 

95!6 

100.6 

95.7 

109.0 

119.3 

115.7 

137.5 

127.3 

142.4 

146.8 

151.0 

138.9 

155.7 

156.0 

155.0 

164.5 

168.7 

178.4 

188.1 

203.9 

205.7 

216.3 

224.3 

214.9 

210.1 

220.6 

235.9 

229.8 

206.1 

96.0 

102.0 

95.0 

111.7 

119.2 

124.3 

136.5 

127.4 

142.6 

150.6 

151.0 

141.0 

151.6 

154.7 

156.0 

164.2 

168.7 

* 180.0 

189.4 

204.7 

207.4 

216.3 

224.3 

214.0 

209.7 

223.1 

232.9 

228.8 

208.3 

CURRENT DOLLARS 

RS) 

10,176 

11,257 

10,993 

13,300 

12,651 

13,512 

14,090 

13,991 

15,404 

15,744 

16,799 

16,746 

18,169 

18,128 

18,145 

19,623 

20,656 

21,887 

23,622 

25,328 

26,325 

28,843 

29,552 

31,601 

33,688 

37,342 

42,184 

45,537 

49,411 

10,141 

11,331 

11,106 

13,349 

12,936 

13,212 

14,017 

13,996 

15,418 

15,826 

16,967 

16,853 

18,285 

18,190 

18,345 

19,745 

20,630 

22,195 

23,697 

25,615 

26,298 

28,924 

29,841 

31,710 

34,655 

37,969 

41,896 

46,707 

49,774 

96.1 

101.8 

96.1 

111.7 

118.8 

129.1 

134.1 

127.3 

142.9 

152.2 

149.5 

142.5 

151.3 

153.7 

154.3 

164.7 

170.1 

181.0 

189.9 

205.1 

206.0 

218.0 

224.7 

212.0 

210.0 

224.5 

234.5 

227.5 

209.9 

10,462 

11,230 

11,263 

12,694 

12,855 

13,430 

14,007 

14,073 

15,677 

15,906 

16,841 

16,745 

18,046 

18,173 

18,377 

19,804 

20,579 

22,404 

23,760 

25,667 

26,899 

28,934 

30,058 

31,951 

35,219 

37,746 

42,464 

45,781 

49,644 

97.2 

102.0 

92.5 

114.6 

117.8 

130.3 

133.9 

129.8 

144.7 

153.5 

148.5 

141.8 

150.1 

153.3 

157.2 

164.4 

170.6 

178.5 

192.1 

205.4 

205.6 

218.7 

224.1 

206.1 

210.4 

226.3 

234.6 

226.1 

210.9 

10,609 

11,240 

11,160 

12,358 

13,094 

14,047 

14,060 

14,081 

15,715 

15,933 

16,782 

16,662 

18,178 

18,333 

18,708 

20,115 

20,937 

21,538 

24,373 

25,557 

26,129 

29,129 

30,262 

31,621 

34,964 

39,106 

42,704 

45,767 

49,995 

97.9 

103.0 

93.4 

115.9 

118.4 

132.2 

132.7 

132.4 

146.6 

152.9 

147.2 

146.8 

151.8 

151.5 

159.6 

165.4 

170.9 

181.0 

193.8 

205.7 

208.5 

219.4 

222.0 

205.0 

210.8 

228.1 

235.3 

220.4 

211.9 

10,792 

11,159 

11,221 

12,069 

13,099 

13,891 

13,855 

14,406 

15,652 

16,106 

16,699 

17,048 

17,699 

18,071 

18,840 

20,220 

20,701 

21,740 

24,667 

25,566 

26,396 

29,259 

30,197 

31,282 

35,574 

38,713 

43,038 

44,684 

50,552 

Dec. 

351.4 

368.2 

369.3 

407.6 

420.2 

443.2 

450.7 

463.0 

498.1 

514.0 

515.4 

533.5 

555.4 

554.7 

588.7 

608.2 

632.6 

675.0 

720.8 

752.2 

786.4 

826.9 

853.7 

867.7 

908.6 

976.4 

1005.1 

977.1 

1007.1 

98." 5 

102.5 

95.5 

115.9 

119.5 

134.1 

131.2 

133.0' 

147.0 

154.8 

145.0 

147.5 

156.4 

148.5 

160.4 

165.2 

172.0 

183.9 

195.4 

205.6 

210.1 

220.5 

222.5 

208.2 

214.1 

229.4 

235.1 

218.3 

213.0 

10,842 

11,404 

11,052 

12,959 

12,924 

14,266 

13,719 

14,671 

15,531 

16,193 

16,647 

17,605 

17,617 

17,939 

18,847 

20,216 

21,156 

22,751 

24,755 

25,384 

26,545 

28,931 

30,268 

31,761 

34,896 

39,417 

42,673 

45,199 

51,734 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

354.5 

35y.6 

364.1 

389.7 

404.0 

422.3 

448.2 

446.7 

466.0 

498.4 

514.5 

511.7 

535.9 

554.7 

561.7 

590.4 

611.3 

639.2 

678.9 

724.9 

761.1 

792.1 

831.7 

855.6 

877.9 

923.1 

986.1 

990.2 

972.3 

95.6 

100.0 

100.2 

98.2 

115.5 

121.7 

136.1 

129.3 

135.3 

148.1 

153.6 

139.9 

150.1 

158.4 

149.9 

160.9 

165.7 

173.1 

185.6 

197.9 

205.7 

211.6 

221.2 

219.9 

209.7 

217.9 

233.0 

231.1 

210.2 

29,2U4 

32,770 

33,239 

34,602 

4U,622 

39,194 

43,095 

41,787 

44,666 

46,528 

49,417 

49,352 

53,155 

54,390 

53,920 

57,351 

60,758 

63,485 

68,815 

75,342 

77,064 

82,706 

88,321 

91,698 

98,414 

106,681 

123,550 

130,222 

138,900 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

347!& 

365.4 

363.5 

388.4 

414.0 

427.8 

454.0 

445.5 

477.3 

503.6 

517.8 

511.9 

545.1 

558.9 

568.9 

597.6 

616.3 

650.5 

688.3 

732.3 

766.7 

805.3 

839.6 

87U.5 

888.5 

931.9 

992.9 

984.9 

982.6 

355.4 

369.8 

364.3 

395.4 

417.9 

436.2 

451.8 

450.9 

487.3 

505.0 

520.2 

524.3 

542.5 

558.8 

574.5 

602.3 

622.1 

660.0 

703.3 

741.7 

774.6 

817.2 

848.1 

871.3 

890.2 

944.5 

1000.3 

988.1 

993.1 

AVERAGE FOR 

96.2 

99.2 

96.0 

104.8 

118.5 

121.0 

137.3 

128.2 

140.2 

150.1 

151.8 

136.3 

155.5 

157.0 

153.0 

163.9 

167.8 

176.6 

186.7 

2U2.1 

204.8 

215.0 

223.0 

215.4 

210.9 

221.5 

234.2 

229.4 

206.7 

95.9 

101.5 

95.6 

110.8 

119.1 

123.0 

136.0 

127.3 

142.6 

149.9 

150.5 

140.8 

152.9 

154.8 

155.1 

164.5 

169.2 

179.8 

189.1 

204.6 

206.4 

216.9 

224.4 

213.6 

209.9 

222.7 

234.4 

228.7 

208.1 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

352.8 

370.7 

365.7 

404.4 

420.6 

442.6 

452.3 

460.2 

495.3 

513.6 

518.1 

531.1 

547.7 

557.0 

584.7 

606.2 

629.8 

668.6 

716.5 

750.3 

781.0 

824.1 

852.8 

866.7 

901.5 

970.6 

1006.6 

979.6 

1006.2 

PERIOD 

97'.9 

102.5 

93.8 

115.5 

118.6 

132.2 

132.6 

131.7 

146.1 

153.7 

146.9 

145.4 

152.8 

151.1 

159.1 

165.0 

171.2 

181.1 

193.8 

205.6 

208.1 

219.5l 

222.9 

206.4 

211.8 

227.9 

235.0 

221.6 

211.9 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

30,154 

33,289 

33,730 

35,977 

38,367 

40,801 

42,531 

42,220 

45,641 

47,084 

49,847 

49,528 

54,057 

55,264 

53,942 

58,321 

61,084 

65,013 

69,652 

74,959 

78,394 

84,380 

89,057 

93,496 

100,907 

110,259 

124,254 

133,876 

143,771 

30,779 

33,818 

33,362 

39,343 

38,442 

40,154 

42,114 

42,060 

46,499 

47,476 

50,607 

50,344 

54,500 

54,491 

54,867 

59,172 

61,865 

66,486 

71,079 

76,610 

79,522 

86,701 

89,451 

95,262 

103,562 

113,057 

126,544 

138,025 

148,829 

32,243 

33,803 

33,433 

37,386 

39,117 

42,204 

41,634 

43,158 

46,898 

48,232 

50,128 

51,315 

53,494 

54,343 

56,395 

60,551 

62,794 

66,029 

73,795 

76,507 

79,070 

87,319 

90,727 

94,664 

105,434 

117,236 

128,415 

135,650 

152,281 

Annual 

352 ^ 

366.4 

364.4 

! 394.5 

414.1 

432.2 

451.6 

450.8 

481.5 

505.2 

517.7 

519.8 

542.8 

557.4 

572.5 

599.1 

619.9 

654.6 

696.7 

737.3 

770.8 

809.7 

843.0 

866.0 

889.5 

942.5 

996.4 

985.7 

988.6 

96.4 

1 100.8 

96.4 

107.3 

117.9 

124.5 

135.5 

129.1 

141.1 

150.4 

150.7 

140.6 

152.8 

155.3 

154.3 

163.6 

168.4 

177.7 

188.8 

202.5 

206.2 

215.8 

222.9 

213.8 

210.6 

222.5 

234.2 

227.7 

209.2 

122,406 

133,619 

133,783 

147,213 

156,548 

162,353 

169,094 

169,135 

183,851 

189,729 

200,002 

200,353 

215,413 

219,529 

218,992 

235,563 

246,666 

261,870 

284,128 

303,956 

313,809 

341,876 

357,885 

i 375,527 

408,850 

448,379 

503,317 

537,782 

584,423 

94 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 

56. MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945... 

1946. .. 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

195b... 

1959... 

I960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964. .. 

1965. .. 

1966... 

1967. .. 

1966... 

1969... 

197U... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

31,180 31,592 31,873 

34,353 34,131 34,380 

35,053 34,737 34,489 

33,632 34,464 34,893 

45,242 44,583 43,983 

43,279 43,664 43,296 

47,760 48,392 48,987 

45,968 46,435 46,183 

49,320 49,828 50,744 

53,110 52,874 53,235 

56,568 57,006 56,597 

54,173 53,102 52,493 

57,833 58,621 59,379 

62,107 61,713 61,274 

58,612 58,931 59,884 

64,443 64,423 65,310 

66,555 67,679 67,774 

71,643 71,616 71,442 

77,123 77,347 78,986 

84,827 85,383 87,179 

88,362 87,900 88,639 

94,305 94,370 95,292 

100,206 101,015 101,557 

104,247 104,780 104,059 

107,199 108,828 109,990 

118,463 118,688 120,699 

137,412 140,030 141,944 

156,452 158,635 162,069 

166,596 168,070 164,116 

32,231 32,774 32,692 

34,890 34,702 35,398 

34,189 33,521 33,648 

35,474 36,686 38,462 

43,250 43,566 43,172 

43,767 44,228 44,346 

48,935 48,904 48,398 

46,640 45,866 46,349 

51,334 51,467 51,645 

53,660 53,768 54,124 

55,770 55,651 56,119 

52,286 52,457 53,315 

60,322 60,975 61,134 

61,637 60,649 60,604 

59,467 60,177 61,134 

65,461 65,429 65,041 

68,420 68,222 68,792 

72,744 73,450 73,063 

79,429 79,241 79,363 

86,731 86,295 87,367 

88,663 89,034 89,620 

95,275 96,256 96,796 

102,270 102,341 102,714 

103,582 104,757 105,293 

110.680 111,980 113,113 

121.681 123,005 123,334 

141,992 143,383 143,656 

163,759 165,672 167,073 

167,687 167,995 170,625 

32,888 32,679 33,726 

35,881 36,053 36,012 

33,065 33,623 34,189 

42,054 43,205 41,024 

42,082 42,807 42,703 

43,452 44,288 45,721 

49,372 48,185 47,828 

46,180 45,798 45,842 

51,885 51,784 52,907 

51,804 53,696 54,439 

56,133 56,682 55,801 

53,758 54,843 54,980 

60,537 59,206 59,377 

60,223 59,939 60,518 

60,603 62,068 62,179 

65,324 66,026 66,142 

69,927 69,497 69,485 

74,236 74,176 75,051 

80,734 80,550 80,662 

87,022 88,190 88,085 

89,502 90,618 90,641 

98,232 96,796 98,241 

103,431 103,816 104,616 

105,681 105,355 105,887 

112,705 113,066 113,910 

124,098 126,866 127,807 

146,219 146,181 146,500 

170,788 173,241 172,605 

173,802 176,001 177,475 

34,747 34,927 35,409 

35,864 35,571 35,662 

32,915 33,275 32,934 

40,665 39,880 43,028 

43,193 43,140 42,733 

47,139 46,853 47,496 

47,540 46,333 45,602 

46,011 47,465 48,603 

52,842 53,248 53,391 

55,209 55,613 56,255 

55,513 54,946 53,837 

55,321 56,780 57,209 

59,234 59,049 60,924 

60,373 59,728 59,668 

63,104 63,742 64,131 

66,546 67,395 66,297 

70.448 69,655 71,149 

73,709 74,669 77,226 

81,693 83,254 83,965 

88,348 88,038 88,275 

89,522 91,492 93,659 

99.449 99,884 99,455 

105,795 104,770 104,870 

104,131 102,759 105,810 

113,490 115,703 116,503 

130,487 132,270 134,791 

149,615 152,999 152,974 

173,026 170,950 166,865 

178,621 178,119 181,647 

5 7. MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950. . . 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954. .. 

1955... 

1956. .. 

1957... 

1958... 

1959.. . 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967. . . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

52,474 52,498 52,894 

53,344 53,297 53,140 

53,378 54,487 55,208 

62,759 61,114 60,017 

59,929 60,593 60,220 

67,237 68,165 68,894 

64,027 64,786 64,435 

69.147 69,727 71,106 

73,309 72,733 73,047 

75,021 75,306 74,774 

70,035 68,806 67,788 

74,146 75,447 76,270 

79.148 78,758 78,269 

74,698 74,916 76,082 

81,605 81,681 82,787 

84,194 85,550 85,621 

90,067 90,322 89,959 

96,356 96,699 98,542 

103,947 104,150 105,834 

105,842 105,285 105,872 

110,336 110,670 111,171 

114,186 114,661 114,587 

113,250 113,407 112,389 

112,805 113,844 114,515 

121,196 120,569 122,360 

134,131 135,135 134,662 

135,351 134,916 134,934 

119,460 120,280 117,487 

53,129 52,455 53,121 

52,938 52,148 53,527 

55,853 57,205 59,549 

58,978 59,494 59,060 

60,987 61,683 61,821 

68.879 68,575 67,769 

64,958 63,869 64,713 

71,869 72,173 72,160 

73,213 73,009 73,331 

73,636 73,375 73,824 

67,509 67,766 68,991 

77,192 78,120 78,344 

78,614 77,596 77,657 

75,700 76,718 78,050 

82.880 82,892 82,500 

86,543 86,042 87,061 

91,347 92,505 92,148 

98,592 97,880 98,363 

105,098 104,460 105,787 

106,257 106,386 106,641 

111,045 111,888 112,532 

115,036 114,651 114,594 

111,290 112,614 112,955 

115,240 116,395 117,255 

123,372 124,301 124,140 

134,246 134,104 133,021 

134,702 134,242 133,321 

119,320 119,615 121,184 

53,583 53,694 53,657 

51,963 53,072 54,110 

63,996 64,897 60,894 

57,893 59,351 59,313 

60,499 61,728 63,820 

68,684 67,302 66,729 

64,486 64,096 64,431 

72,436 72,152 73,336 

70,206 72,478 73,135 

73,525 74,020 73,046 

69,536 70,882 71,383 

77,972 75,610 75,894 

77,304 76,862 77,820 

77,261 79,002 79,345 

82,786 83,381 83,335 

88,116 87,179 87,694 

93,390 92,894 94,264 

99,944 100,080 99,144 

104,565 105,225 106,086 

106,300 107,643 107,541 

113,903 111,034 113,193 

114,582 115,414 116,295 

113,242 112,906 112,648 

116,199 117,374 117,879 

124,245 126,802 127,610 

135,233 133,045 133,479 

133,464 133,023 131,003 

122,486 124,185 124,746 

53,715 53,491 53,918 

52,142 52,827 52,367 

59,609 57,766 61,016 

59,731 59,579 58,975 

65,902 65,654 66,862 

66,422 64,806 63,706 

64,675 66,600 68,159 

73,048 73,631 73,719 

73,726 74,094 74,799 

72,696 71,739 70,167 

72,478 73,573 71,873 

75,425 75,571 77,904 

77,261 76,290 76,292 

80,359 81,115 81,494 

84,039 85,122 83,741 

88,875 88,020 89,526 

93,173 93,983 96,117 

101,135 102,612 102,871 

106,317 105,963 105,967 

106,473 108,739 110,843 1 

114,481 114,351 113,778 

117,139 114,937 114,781 

110,406 108,726 112,180 

117,587 119,689 119,799 

129,636 131,444 132,251 

136,199 137,529 134,785 

129,105 124,924 120,119 

124,971 123,941 125,656 

59. SALES OF RETAIL STORES IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951. .. 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

16,811 16,764 17,047 

16,724 16,994 17,244 

17,995 18,368 18,527 

20,219 19,667 18,432 

18,192 18,596 18,100 

20,153 20,138 20,292 

19,321 19,805 19,755 

21,097 21,284 21,440 

22,270 22,117 22,513 

22,771 23,066 22,814 

22,535 21,966 21,731 

23,235 23,480 23,619 

23,784 23,818 23,861 

23,455 23,341 23,486 

24,613 24,617 24,959 

26,075 25,868 26,017 

26,532 26,868 27,068 

28,799 29,037 28,755 

31,000 30,887 31,400 

31,256 30,762 31,034 

31,842 32,119 32,644 

33,289 33,252 32,805 

32,936 33,058 33,075 

33,899 34,162 34,262 

35,633 35,847 36,605 

39,888 40,154 39,917 

38,145 37,854 37,751 

36,188 36,971 36,135 

17,165 16,513 16,833 

17,440 17,359 18,376 

18,521 18,716 19,315 

18,069 18,219 18,172 

18,547 19,249 19,498 

20,011 19,916 19,886 

19,737 19,712 20,180 

21,823 21,882 21,740 

22,249 22,508 22,440 

22,818 22,848 23,165 

21,924 21,944 22,049 

23,390 23,604 23,859 

24,337 24,052 24,143 

23.249 23,419 23,563 

25,047 25,242 24,963 

26,183 25,880 26,187 

27,141 27,603 27,610 

28,797 29,284 29,098 

30,827 30,239 30,908 

31.250 31,212 31,591 

32,413 32,709 33,020 

32,975 33,050 32,897 

33,231 33,438 33,540 

34,699 34,583 35,047 

36,685 37,243 37,167 

39,594 39,339 38,849 

38,076 37,782 37,600 

36,531 37,439 37,732 

16,897 16,945 16,794 

17,134 17,377 17,690 

20,651 20,595 19,461 

17.951 18,354 18,240 

18.952 18,509 18,815 

19,807 19,683 19,668 

19,852 19,905 20,108 

22,140 22,134 22,480 

22,210 22,351 22,412 

23,058 23,183 23,037 

22,209 22,531 22,464 

23,762 23,971 24,180 

23,940 23,965 24,076 

23,553 23,763 23,768 

25,338 25,448 25,500 

26,254 26,227 26,090 

27,722 28,089 28,114 

29,442 29,510 29,797 

30,965 31,085 31,090 

31,440 31,371 31,661 

33,351 33,361 32,992 

32,716 32,902 33,101 

33,798 33,660 33,860 

34,650 35,223 36,087 

37,476 37,711 37,751 

39,497 38,801 39,114 

37,989 38,248 37,169 

37,778 37,953 37,838 

16,892 16,875 17,310 

17,596 17,762 17,540 

18,688 18,050 19,099 

18,451 18,363 17,981 

19,679 19,483 20,010 

19,766 19,522 19,331 

20,144 20,608 20,987 

22,534 22,470 22,270 

22,322 22,564 22,634 

22,982 22,792 22,670 

22,365 22,731 23,552 

23,591 23,249 23,358 

24,095 23,730 23,486 

24,203 24,375 24,440 

25,823 25,898 25,952 

26,545 26,360 26,690 

27,799 27,648 28,083 

30,399 30,722 30,796 

30,863 31,032 30,816 

30,959 31,247 31,611 

33,118 33,054 33,081 

33,078 32,666 33,009 

33,133 32,716 33,589 

35,627 36,145 36,024 

38,516 38,485 39,209 

39,185 38,955 37,959 

36,544 35,407 35,544 

38,004 38,185 38,844 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

Annual 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

94,645 97,697 99,293 105,083 

102,864 104,990 107,946 107,097 

104,279 101,358 100,877 99,124 

|l02,989 110,622 126,283 123,573 

133,808 129,988 127,592 129,066 

130,239 132,341 133,461 141,488 

145,139 146,237 145,385 139,475 

138,586 138,855 137,820 142,079 

149,892 154,446 156,576 159,481 

159,219 161,552 159,939 167,077 

170,171 167,540 168,616 164,296 

159,768 158,058 163,581 169,310 

175,833 182,431 179,120 179,207 

185,094 182,890 180,680 179,769 

177,427 180,778 184,850 190,977 

194,176 195,931 197,492 200,238 

202,008 205,434 208,909 211,252 

214,701 219,257 223,463 225,604 

233,456 238,033 241,946 248,912 

257,389 260,393 263,297 264,661 

264,901 267,317 270,761 274,673 

283,967 288,327 293,269 298,788 

302,778 307,325 311,863 315,435 

313,086 313,632 316,923 312,700 

326,017 335,773 339,681 345,696 

357,850 368,020 378,771 397,548 

419,386 -429,031 438,900 455,588 

477,156 496,504 516,634 510,841 

498,782 506,307 527,278 538,387 

1 396,718 

422,897 

405,638 

463,467 

520,454 

537,529 

576,236 

557,340 

620,395 

647,787 

670,623 

650,717 

716,591 

728,433 

734,032 

787,837 

827,603 

883,025 

962,347 

1,045,740 

1,077,652 

1,164,351 

1,237,401 

1,256,341 

1,347,167 

1,502,189 

1,742,905 

2,001,135 

2,070,754 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

157,866 158,705 160,934 161,124 

159,781 158,613 159,145 157,336 

163,073 172,607 189,787 178,391 

183,890 177,532 176,557 178,285 | 

180,742 184,491 186,047 198,418 

204,296 205,223 202,715 194,934 

193,248 193,540 193,013 199,434 

209,980 216,202 217,924 220,398 

219,089 219,553 215,819 222,619 

225,101 220,835 220,591 214,602 

206,629 204,266 211,801 217,924 

225,863 233,656 229,476 228,900 

236,175 233,867 231,986 229,843 

225,696 230,468 235,608 242,968 

246,073 248,272 249,502 252,902 

255,365 259,646 262,989 266,421 

270,348 276,000 280,548 283,273 

291,597 294,835 299,168 306,618 

313,931 315,345 315,876 318,247 

316,999 319,284 321,484 326,055 

332,177 335,465 338,130 342,610 

343,434 344,281 346,291 346,857 

339,046 336,859 338,796 331,312 

341,164 348,890 351,452 357,075 

364,125 371,813 378,657 393,331 

403,928 401,371 401,757 408,513 

405,201 402,265 397,490 374,148 

357,227 360,119 371,417 374,568 

638,629 

634,875 

703,858 

716,264 

749,698 

807,168 

779,235 

864,504 

877,080 

881,129 

840,620 

917,895 

931,871 

934,740 

996,749 

1,044,421 

1,110,169 

1,192,218 

1,263,399 

1,283,822 

1,348,382 

1,380,863 

1,346,013 

1,398,581 

1,507,926 

1,615,569 

1,579,104 

1,463,331 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

50,622 50,511 50,636 51,077 

50,962 53,175 52,201 52,898 

54,890 56,552 60,707 55,837 

58,318 54,460 54,545 54,795 

54,888 57,294 56,276 59,172 

60,583 59,813 59,158 58,619 

58,881 59,629 59,865 61,739 

63,821 65,445 66,754 67,274 

66,900 67,197 66,973 67,520 

68,651 68,831 69,278 68,444 

66,232 65,917 67,204 68,648 

70,334 70,853 71,913 70,198 

71,463 72,532 71,981 71,311 

70,282 70,231 71,084 73,018 

74,189 75,252 76,286 77,673 

77,960 78,250 78,571 79,595 

80,468 82,354 83,925 83,530 

86,591 87,179 88,749 91,917 

93,287 91,974 93,140 92,711 

93,052 94,053 94,472 93,817 

96,605 98,142 99,704 99,253 

99,346 98,922 98,719 98,753 

99,069 100,209 101,318 99,438 

102,323 104,329 105,960 107,796 

108,085 111,095 112,938 116,210 

119,959 117,782 117,412 116,099 

113,750 113,458 113,406 107,495 

109,294 111,702 113,569 115,033 

202,846 

209,236 

227,986 

222,118 

227,630 

238,173 

240,114 

263,294 

268,590 

275,204 

268,001 

283,298 

287,287 

284,615 

303,400 

314,376 

330,277 

354,436 

371,112 

375,394 

393,704 

395,740 

400,034 

420,408 

448,328 

471,252 

448,109 

449,598 

BCD 1977 95 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

6 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 1 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . ! 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 1 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . ! 

1972.. . 

1973.. . j 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 

6 0 . RATIO, HELP-WANTED ADVERTISING IN 

0.95 2 

0.53 9 

0.25 1 

0.80 1 

1.02 7 

1.16 5 

0.43 5 

0.44 3 

0.75 9 

0.73 5 

0.33 0 

0.36 6 

0.51 9 

0.30 0 

0.44 5 

0.42 4 

0.45 8 

0.61 7 

0.99 6 

1.03 3 

1.06 5 

1.33 6 

1.01 9 

0.46 7 

0.54 6 

0.88 4 

0.77 1 

0.31 5 

72^3 

78. 1 

81. 2 

79. 1 

81. 5 

89. 0 

90. 3 

94. 3 

91. 2 

91. 9 

96. 2 

101. 0 

98. 3 

97. 2 

102. 8 

99. 4 

99. 1 

97. 2 

96. 2 

95. 7 

99. 2 

100. 3 

104. 0 

111. 1 

112. 4 

111. 7 

114. 3 

121. 2 

143. 5 

0.80 6 

0.41 8 

0.25 7 

0.88 6 

1.02 0 

1.32 7 

0.38 4 

0.49 1 

0.80 0 

0.74 9 

0.27 7 

0.39 0 

0.56 4 

0.28 3 

0.46 2 

0.40 7 

0.46 2 

0.60 7 

1.07 7 

1.04 2 

1.02 2 

1.35 0 

0.94 1 

0.48 8 

0.56 8 

0.85 7 

0.74 6 

0.30 7 

0.73 2 

0.39 3 

0.26 9 

0.92 4 

1.06 7 

1.39 2 

0.33 8 

0.53 1 

0.74 4 

0.77 1 

0.25 2 

0.43 1 

0.47 9 

0.28 8 

0.45 6 

0.43 1 

0.46 7 

0.66 2 

1.11 3 

1.02 1 

1.07 7 

1.35 0 

0.83 7 

0.48 0 

0.56 8 

0.87 8 

0.77 1 

0.28 3 

0.73 7 

0.34 7 

j 0.30 8 

0.99 2 

1.08 6 

1.29 5 

0.32 6 

0.51 8 

0.78 7 

0.71 0 

0.22 0 

0.49 2 

0.48 5 

0.28 6 

0.45 7 

0.42 6 

0.49 4 

0.64 6 

1.09 5 

1.02 9 

1.16 5 

1.35 0 

0.78 4 

0.48 3 

0.58 9 

0.85 0 

0.79 5 

0.27 7 

June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 

NEWSPAPERS TO NUMBER OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED 

(RATIO) 

0.83 0 

0.30 5 

0.32 9 

1.05 9 

1.03 8 

1.36 2 

0.31 6 

0.60 7 

0.71 8 

0.67 0 

' 0.21 9 

0.50 5 

0.48 4 

0.29 1 

0.47 8 

0.40 2 

0.51 4 

0.70 3 

1.06 0 

1.00 6 

1.16 3 

1.37 2 

0.71 5 

0.48 6 

0.59 8 

0.87 9 

0.76 6 

0.26 5 

0.79 3 

0.27 6 

0.35 4 

0.94 0 

1.02 7 

1.29 6 

0.34 4 

0.63 9 

0.70 2 

0.60 5 

0.22 9 

0.53 8 

0.45 1 

0.31 1 

0.46 5 

0.42 7 

0.52 3 

0.72 1 

1.09 8 

0.98 5 

1.07 4 

1.26 8 

0.68 9 

0.50 9 

0.60 4 

0.87 9 

0.73 1 

0.29 8 

0.78 1 

0.24 6 

0.41 0 

0.97 7 

0.98 7 

1.20 1 

0.32 5 

0.67 9 

0.65 5 

0.63 9 

0.23 4 

0.54 0 

0.42 7 

0.30 8 

0.46 8 

0.43 4 

0.56 9 

0.73 9 

1.09 7 

0.98 1 

1.12 6 

1.23 6 

0.63 4 

0.49 3 

0.62 3 

0.90 3 

0.70 4 

0.31 0 

0.74 8 

0.23 4 

U.52 1 

0.98 6 

0.95 6 

1.14 5 

0.30 9 

0.67 4 

0.73 9 

0.61 8 

0.24 3 

0.51 5 

0.40 8 

0.33 7 

0.43 8 

0.44 5 

0.55 4 

0.77 8 

1.07 8 

1.02 1 

1.19 4 

1.22 0 

0.61 6 

0.48 7 

0.63 6 

0.88 0 

0.68 2 

0.31 2 

0.80 2 

0.23 5 

0.53 6 

0.90 8 

1.09 2 

0.99 7 

0.30 3 

0.74 4 

0.74 6 

0.56 6 

0.27 2 

0.49 7 

0.39 8 

0.34 4 

0.43 6 

0.43 6 

0.55 3 

0.81 5 

1.09 6 

1.00 6 

1.25 3 

1.21 4 

0.58 2 

0.49 1 

0.65 3 

0.85 9 

0.58 6 

0.30 8 

6 2 . INDEX OF LABOR COST PER UNIT OF OUTPUT, TOTAL MANUFACTURING 

72.6 

78. 0 

81. 6 

79. 0 

82. 8 

89. 0 

90. 4 

94. 3 

91. 5 

92. 4 

95. 9 

101. 8 

97. 9 

98. 8 

103. 4 

99. 1 

98. 7 

97. 6 

96. 0 

96. 4 

99. 1 

101. 0 

103. 6 

110. 9 

112. 5 

112. 8 

114. 2 

122. 2 

144. 5 

5 . MANUFACTURERS 

4.1 6 

4.3 3 

6.1 3 

7.7 3 

9.3 3 

8.9 9 

9.3 3 

12.4 8 

12.4 5 

13.6 2 

13.5 5 

14.2 0 

16.3 5 

16.6 1 

16.3 3 

17.3 1 

18.5 5 

18.9 8 

20.0 5 

20.7 7 

21.7 5 

22.7 3 

25.3 8 

27.2 1 

28.7 5 

31.5 0 

34.4 6 

34.8 4 

35.7 4 

39.1 7 

49.4 2 

4.0 7 

4.6 2 

6.3 2 

7.8 4 

9.5 2 

9.0 3 

9.4 9 

12.5 5 

12.4 0 

13.6 4 

13.6 1 

14.3 9 

16.4 0 

16.8 4 

16.4 2 

17.5 7 

18.7 0 

18.9 7 

20.0 7 

20.8 7 

21.7 7 

22.8 1 

25.5 9 

27.2 1 

29.0 2 

31.8 2 

34.5 8 

34.9 1 

35.8 2 

39.6 0 

49.5 4 

73. 4 

79. 1 

80. 9 

78. 4 

83. 7 

89. 6 

91. 0 

94. 6 

90. 7 

93. 1 

96. 1 

102. 5 

97. 6 

99. 7 

102. 4 

99. 0 

98. 2 

98. 2 

95. 5 

96. 0 

99. 8 

101. 1 

104. 0 

111. 5 

112. 7 

113. 0 

114. 4 

122. 3 

147. 0 

• INVENTC 

4.0 3 

4.5 4 

6.4 3 

7.9 6 

9.6 4 

9.0 9 

9.6 5 

12.6 4 

12.4 1 

13.7 1 

13.6 5 

14.4 8 

16.5 2 

16.8 5 

16.4 9 

17.7 6 

18.6 4 

19.0 3 

20.0 4 

20.9 5 

21.8 4 

22.9 8 

25.7 8 

27.3 2 

29.3 1 

32.0 6 

34.8 1 

35.1 3 

36.1 8 

40.2 6 

49.7 2 

73. 7 

78. 8 

81. 1 

77. 7 

85. 1 

89. 6 

91. 2 

94. 4 

90. 1 

93. 1 

97. 1 

102. 8 

97. 1 

100. 1 

101. 6 

100. 5 

97. 4 

97. 7 

95. 3 

97. 0 

99. 5 

101. 3 

105. 5 

111. 9 

113. 2 

113. 0 

116. 4 

123. 5 

144. 6 

(1967=100 ) 

74. 5 

78. 1 

81. 5 

78. 1 

85. 3 

90. 4 

90. 9 

94. 1 

90. 2 

93. 8 

97. 3 

101. 8 

97. 1 

100. 9 

101. 2 

100. 5 

97. 2 

97. 7 

95. 1 

97. 1 

100. 0 

102. 1 

106. 5 

111. 9 

113. 5 

113. 7 

116. 1 

124. 3 

144. 7 

RIES OF FINISHED 

75. 2 

78. 9 

81. 5 

77. 5 

87. 0 

91. 3 

91. 8 

93. 6 

90. 5 

94. 7 

97. 4 

100. 4 

97. 9 

101. 6 

100. 6 

100. 8 

97. 4 

97. 9 

95. 3 

97. 5 

100. 4 

102. 4 

106. 7 

112. 6 

113. 3 

113. 7 

116. 8 

125. 3 

143. 2 

GOODS, E 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLAI 

4.0 5 

4.4 6 

6.5 7 

8.0 2 

9.6 2 

9.0 8 

9.9 8 

12.5 7 

12.4 7 

13.5 6 

13.6 0 

14.5 9 

16.5 6 

16.6 5 

16.5 1 

17.8 9 

18.7 5 

19.0 6 

19.9 9 

21.0 9 

21.6 5 

23.0 1 

26.0 8 

27.2 9 

29.5 5 

32.6 5 

34.6 2 

35.3 3 

36.2 4 

40.8 9 

49.6 3 

4.0 3 

4.3 9 

6.6 9 

8.1 3 

9.5 3 

9.0 3 

10.4 3 

12.3 3 

12.6 6 

13.4 6 

13.6 2 

14.8 2 

16.7 2 

16.5 7 

16.5 9 

18.1 2 

18.7 3 

19.2 9 

20.0 8 

21.1 4 

21.7 6 

23.2 5 

26.3 2 

27.4 7 

29.9 5 

32.7 4 

34.7 1 

35.6 0 

36.7 5 

41.4 3 

49.6 5 

4.0 0 

4.3 7 

6.8 3 

8.2 2 

9.5 2 

9.1 0 

10.9 1 

12.3 4 

12.8 0 

13.4 7 

13.6 2 

15.2 4 

16.7 8 

16.5 7 

16.5 3 

18.2 7 

18.8 2 

19.5 0 

20.3 4 

21.1 6 

21.9 3 

23.5 5 

26.3 9 

27.5 9 

30.1 6 

32.9 8 

34.6 7 

35.8 4 

37.0 7 

42.0 6 

49.3 8 

75. 1 

80. 3 

81. 3 

77. 2 

88. 2 

89. 6 

91. 7 

93. 5 

90. 9 

97. 9 

97. 1 

100. 3 

99. 3 

101. 0 

99. 9 

100. 3 

98. 5 

98. 1 

94. 7 

97. 6 

101. 3 

103. 2 

107. 0 

113. 2 

113. 6 

114. 0 

117. 3 

127. 4 

141. 9 

75. 4 

81. 6 

80. 5 

77. 3 

89. 4 

90. 5 

91. 4 

93. 8 

91. 2 

95. 7 

97. 6 

99. 8 

100. 7 

100. 7 

99. 4 

100. 1 

97. 9 

98. 1 

94. 9 

98. 5 

101. 3 

103. 5 

107. 6 

113. 5 

115. 0 

113. 5 

118. 0 

128. 2 

142. 1 

76. 4 

81. 5 

79. 6 

78. 0 

89. 1 

90. 6 

91. 6 

93. 1 

91. 7 

95. 7 

97. 3 

100. 1 

101. 1 

101. 1 

98. 8 

99. 7 

97. 9 

98. 5 

94. 9 

98. 2 

100. 5 

103. 8 

107. 8 

113. 4 

113. 0 

113. 6 

118. 5 

129. 0 

141. 1 

JOOK VALUE, ALL MANUFACTUf 

*S) 

4.0 6 

4.7 1 

7.1 0 

8.4 3 

9.3 9 

8.7 9 

11.5 5 

12.3 1 

12.9 3 

13.4 5 

13.6 1 

15.4 2 

16.8 9 

16.5 5 

16.6 4 

18.3 6 

18.7 1 

19.6 3 

20.2 1 

21.1 8 

22.0 4 

23.7 2 

26.4 2 

27.6 5 

30.3 1 

33.2 4 

34.4 0 

35.8 0 

37.1 1 

42.9 2 

48.9 0 

4.0 5 

5.0 8 

7.2 8 

8.5 3 

9.2 5 

8.5 7 

12.0 5 

12.3 5 

13.1 4 

13.3 2 

13.7 2 

15.7 1 

16.9 2 

16.3 4 

16.8 2 

18.3 8 

18.8 4 

19.7 8 

20.3 8 

21.2 2 

22.0 3 

23.8 9 

26.6 4 

27.8 9 

30.5 2 

33.4 3 

34.5 3 

36.3 2 

37.0 6 

43.9 8 

49.2 4 

4.1 4 

5.3 7 

7.3 7 

8.8 0 

9.1 3 

8.6 8 

12.3 4 

12.3 6 

13.3 1 

13.2 8 

13.7 5 

15.9 6 

16.8 8 

16.1 5 

16.8 0 

18.6 2 

18.6 6 

19.8 4 

20.4 6 

21.1 4 

22.1 2 

24.1 3 

26.7 3 

28.1 6 

30.6 8 

33.6 2 

34.7 4 

36.1 6 

37.3 0 

44.9 4 

49.6 1 

0.75 1 

0.18 8 

0.61 2 

0.88 2 

1.19 7 

0.84 5 

0.32 5 

0.68 3 

0.81 0 

0.51 3 

0.29 3 

0.46 5 

0.35 0 

0.37 1 

0.45 4 

0.44 8 

0.55 1 

0.87 1 

1.09 6 

0.95 6 

1.31 8 

1.20 1 

0.52 0 

0.50 0 

0.67 1 

0.90 8 

0.52 8 

0.30 7 

76. 2 

80. 9 

79. 6 

79. 8 

88. 2 

90. 2 

92. 2 

93. 1 

91. 1 

96. 3 

9 8 . 4 

99. 0 

101. 8 

101. 5 

98. 9 

100. 0 

97. 5 

98. 4 

95. 4 

98. 0 

99. 9 

104. 9 

108. 2 

113. 1 

112. 4 

113. 5 

119. 1 

131. 7 

142. 4 

Nov. 

0.69 0 

0.22 4 

0.60 9 

0.88 8 

1.26 5 

0.68 6 

0.37 6 

0.72 8 

0.71 8 

0.40 5 

0.33 4 

0.45 4 

0.33 7 

0.40 9 

0.42 2 

0.42 3 

0.60 4 

0.94 0 

1.10 8 

0.97 1 

1.30 5 

1.24 1 

0.49 4 

0.49 8 

0.73 8 

0.86 4 

0.44 4 

0.33 2 

76.6 

82. 1 

78. 3 

81. 1 

88. 6 

89. 4 

92. 7 

93. 3 

91. 8 

95. 9 

99. 8 

98. 5 

101. 6 

102. 2 

98. 7 

99. 5 

97. 7 

96. 9 

95. 9 

99. 1 

99. 7 

103. 9 

108. 2 

112. 9 

112. 2 

113. 7 

120. 0 

135. 4 

141. 8 

iING INDUSTRIES 

4.2 0 

5.8 3 

7.5 7 

8.9 5 

9.1 2 

8.8 5 

12.3 2 

12.3 3 

13.4 7 

13.3 2 

13.8 2 

16.0 2 

16.8 6 

16.1 4 

16.8 4 

18.5 9 

18.9 3 

19.9 6 

20.5 2 

21.4 1 

22.2 3 

24.3 4 

26.7 7 

28.3 0 

30.7 1 

33.9 2 

35.0 7 

35.9 2 

37.5 4 

46.0 9 

49.8 9 

4.3 6 

5.9 1 

7.5 5 

8.9 9 

8.9 2 

9.1 7 

12.2 2 

12.3 2 

13.5 7 

13.2 8 

13.8 8 

16.2 1 

16.7 4 

16.3 3 

16.9 9 

18.6 0 

18.9 5 

19.9 6 

20.6 4 

21.4 8 

22.3 6 

24.6 8 

26.8 5 

28.4 8 

31.0 5 

34.2 1 

34.9 7 

35.8 9 

37.7 7 

47.2 8 

49.8 1 

Dec. 

0.58 8 

0.21 2 

0.57 6 

0.98 8 

1.32 1 

0.48 6 

0.41 0 

0.76 6 

0.71 5 

0.38 5 

0.35 5 

0.50 5 

0.30 9 

0.41 3 

0.43 4 

0.46 4 

0.58 7 

0.97 2 

1.04 3 

0.99 6 

1.29 7 

1.18 7 

0.47 7 

0.51 3 

0.81 8 

0.82 2 

0.38 5 

0.34 0 

lY.3 

81. 4 

78. 9 

81. 2 

89. 1 

90. 2 

93. 8 

92. 3 

91. 1 

96. 0 1 

100. 3 

99. 0 

98. 3 

102. 4 

98. 1 

99. 6 

98. 6 

97. 0 

95. 7 

98. 8 

100. 1 

104. 9 

109. 2 

112. 1 

113. 1 

113. 0 

120. 0 

140. 6 

141. 5 

4.3 5 

5.8 0 

7.5 4 

9.1 5 

8.9 8 

9.2 2 

12.2 8 

12.3 3 

13.6 2 

13.4 6 

14.0 1 

16.1 9 

16.7 5 

16.3 0 

17.0 6 

18.6 0 

18.7 7 

20.0 7 

20.6 8 

21.5 7 

22.5 0 

24.9 5 

27.0 0 

28.7 0 

31.2 2 

34.1 6 

34.8 4 

35.8 6 

38.3 6 

48.3 4 

49.8 7 

Quarterly 

IQ 

0.83 0 

0.45 0 

0.25 9 

0.87 0 

1.03 8 

1.29 5 

0.38 6 

0.48 8 

0.76 8 

0.75 2 

0.28 6 

0.39 6 

0.52 1 

0.29 0 

0.45 4 

0.42 1 

0.46 2 

0.62 9 

1.06 2 

1.03 2 

1 1.05 5 

1.34 5 

0.93 2 

0.47 8 

0.56 1 

0.87 3 

j 0.76 3 

0.30 2 

12.6 

78. 4 

81. 2 

78. 8 

82. 7 

89. 2 

90. 6 

94. 4 

91. 1 

92. 5 

96. 1 

101. 8 

97. 9 

98. 6 

102. 9 

99. 2 

98. 7 

97. 7 

95. 9 

96. 0 

99. 4 

100. 8 

103. 9 

111. 2 

112. 5 

112. 5 

114. 3 

121. 9 

145. 0 

4.0 3 

4.5 4 

6.4 3 

7.9 6 

9.6 4 

9.0 9 

9.6 5 

12.6 4 

12.4 1 

13.7 1 

13.6 5 

14.4 8 

16.5 2 

16.8 5 

16.4 9 

17.7 6 

18.6 4 

19.0 3 

20.0 4 

20.9 5 

21.8 4 

22.9 8 

25.7 8 

27.3 2 

29.3 1 

32.0 6 

34.8 1 

35.1 3 

36.1 8 

40.2 6 

49.7 2 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

0.78 7 

0.30 9 

0.33 0 

0.99 7 

1.05 0 

1.31 8 

0.32 9 

0.58 8 

0.73 6 

0.66 2 

0.22 3 

0.51 2 

0.47 3 

0.29 6 

0.46 7 

0.41 8 

0.51 0 

0.69 0 

1.08 4 

1.00 7 

1.13 4 

1.33 0 

0.72 9 

0.49 3 

0.59 7 

0.86 9 

0.76 4 

0.28 0 

0.77 7 

0.23 8 

0.48 9 

0.95 7 

1.01 2 

1.11 4 

0.31 2 

0.69 9 

0.71 3 

0.60 8 

0.25 0 

0.51 7 

0.41 1 

0.33 0 

0.44 7 

0.43 8 

0.55 9 

0.77 7 

1.09 0 

1.00 3 

1.19 1 

1.22 3 

0.61 1 

0.49 0 

0.63 7 

0.88 1 

0.65 7 

0.31 0 

AVERAGE FOR 

iV.'b 

78. 6 

81. 4 

77. 8 

85. 8 

90. 4 

91. 3 

94. 0 

90. 3 

93. 9 

97. 3 

101. 7 

97. 4 

100. 9 

101. 1 

100. 6 

97. 3 

97. 8 

95. 2 

97. 2 

100. 0 

101. 9 

106. 2 

112. 1 

113. 3 

113. 5 

116. 4 

124. 4 

144. 2 

75. 6 

81. 1 

80. 5 

77. 5 

88. 9 

90. 2 

91. 6 

93. 5 

91. 3 

96. 4 

97. 3 

100. 1 

100. 4 

100. 9 

99. 4 

100. 0 

98. 1 

98. 2 

94. 8 

98. 1 

101. 0 

103. 5 

107. 5 

113. 4 

113. 9 

113. 7 

117. 9 

128. 2 

141. 7 

IVQ 

PERIOD 

0.67 6 

0.20 8 

0.59 9 

0.91 9 

1.26 1 

0.67 2 

0.37 0 

0.72 6 

0.74 8 

0.43 4 

0.32 7 

0.47 5 

0.33 2 

0.39 8 

0.43 7 

0.44 5 

0.58 1 

0.92 8 

1.08 2 

0.97 4 

1.30 7 

1.21 0 

0.49 7 

0.50 4 

0.74 2 

0.86 5 

0.45 2 

0.32 6 

PERIOD 

l't'.5 

81. 5 

78. 9 

80. 7 

88. 6 

89. 9 

92. 9 

92. 9 

91. 3 

96. 1 

99. 5 

98. 8 

100. 6 

102. 0 

98. 6 

99. 7 

97. 9 

97. 4 

95. 7 

98. 6 

99. 9 1 

104. 6 

108. 5 

112. 7 

112. 6 

113. 4 

119. 7 

135. 9 

141. 9 

END OF PERIOD 

4.0 0 

4.3 7 

6.8 3 

8.2 2 

9.5 2 

9.1 0 

10.9 1 

12.3 4 

12.8 0 

13.4 7 

13.6 2 

15.2 4 

16.7 8 

16.5 7 

16.5 3 

18.2 7 

18.8 2 

19.5 0 

20.3 4 

21.1 6 

21.9 3 

23.5 5 

26.3 9 

27.5 9 

30.1 6 

32.9 8 

34.6 7 

35.8 4 

37.0 7 

42.0 6 

49.3 8 

4.1 4 

5.3 7 

7.3 7 

8.8 0 

9.1 3 

8.6 8 

12.3 4 

12.3 6 

13.3 1 

13.2 8 

13.7 5 

15.9 6 

16.8 8 

16.1 5 

16.8 0 

18.6 2 

18.6 6 

19.8 4 

20.4 6 

21.1 4 

22.1 2 

24.1 3 

26.7 3 

28.1 6 

30.6 8 

33.6 2 

34.7 4 

36.1 6 

37.3 0 

44.9 4 

49.6 1 

4.3 5 

5.8 0 

7.5 4 

9.1 5 

8.9 8 

9.2 2 

12.2 8 

12.3 3 

13.6 2 

13.4 6 

14.0 1 

16.1 9 

16.7 5 

16.3 0 

17.0 6 

18.6 0 

18.7 7 

20.0 7 

20.6 8 

21.5 7 

22.5 0 

24.9 5 

27.0 0 

28.7 0 

31.2 2 

34.1 6 

34.8 4 i 

35.8 6 

38.3 6

 ! 

48.3 4 

49.8 7 

Annual 

0.76 8 

0.30 1 

0.41 9 

0.93 6 

1.09 0 

1.10 0 

0.34 9 

0.62 5 

0.74 1 

0.61 4 

0.27 2 

0.47 5 

0.43 4 

0.32 8 

0.45 1 

0.43 1 

0.52 8 

0.75 6 

1.08 0 

1.00 4 

1.17 2 

1.27 7 

0.69 2 

0.49 1 

0.63 4 

0.87 2 

0.65 9 

0.30 4 

74! 8 

79. 9 

80. 5 

78. 7 

86. 5 

90. 0 

91. 6 

93. 7 

91. 0 

94. 7 

97. 5 

100. 6 

99. 1 

100. 6 

100. 5 

99. 9 

98. 0 

97. 8 

95. 4 

97. 5 

100. 1 

102. 7 

106. 5 

112. 3 

113. 1 

113. 3 

117. 1 

127. 6 

143. 2 

4.3 5 

5.8 0 

7.5 4 

9.1 5 

8.9 8 

9.2 2 

12.2 8 

12.3 3 

13.6 2 

13.4 6 

14.0 1 

16.1 9 

16.7 5 

16.3 0 

17.0 6 

18.6 0 

18.7 7 

20.0 7 

20.6 8 

21.5 7 

22.5 0 

24.9 5 

27.0 0 

28.7 0 

31.2 2 

34.1 6 

34.8 4 

35.8 6 

38.3 6 

48.3 4 

49.8 7 

96 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Monthly 

Year 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 

Quarterly 

I Q III Q IV Q 

66. CONSUMER INSTALLMENT DEBT 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) END OF PERIOD 

2,110 

2,476 

4,278 

6,799 

8,874 

11,576 

14,535 

15,091 

19,547 

22,593 

23,512 

28,732 

31,417 

33,408 

33,492 

38,941 

42,247 

43,264 

48,345 

55,083 

2,u84 

2,560 

4,462 

6,996 

8,981 

11,835 

14,614 

15,243 

20,000 

22,683 

23,930 

29,120 

31,674 

33,271 

33,914 

39,438 

42,187 

43,561 

48,853 

55,734 

2,103 

2,647 

4,641 

7,317 

9,148 

12,118 

14,661 

15,323 

20,540 

22,589 

24,501 

29,457 

31,883 

33,129 

34,328 

39,889 

42,202 

43,894 

49,371 

56,381 

62, 

109 

125 

144 

152 

63,004 

70,679 

74,967 

78,957 

87,768 

95,800 

99,941 100,561 

418 110,486 111,875 

824 127,914 129,906 

598 145,694 146,402 

051 152,368 152,102 

63,616 

71,298 

75,215 

79,599 

88,482 

96,058 

2,080 

2,790 

4,849 

7,630 

9,393 

12,384 

14,613 

15,545 

20,970 

22,660 

25,021 

59 

75 

28 

29,7 

32,0 

33,0 

34,7 

40,3 

42,0 

44,3 

49,9 

56,9 

2,085 

2,925 

5,078 

7,797 

9,624 

12,686 

14,551 

16,026 

21,271 

22,538 

25,507 

29,977 

32,305 

32,921 

35,221 

40,658 

42,105 

44,841 

50,457 

57,619 

64, 

71, 

75, 

80, 

89, 

96, 

101, 

113, 

131, 

147, 

152, 

594 

759 

195 

287 

501 

379 

65, 

72, 

75, 

80, 

90, 

96, 

271 101, 

101 114, 

439 133, 

420 148, 

119 151, 

455 

214 

333 

971 

560 

725 

838 

352 

128 

560 

817 

2,111 

3,049 

5,286 

7,910 

9,796 

13,043 

14,451 

16,605 

21,488 

22,524 

26,032 

30,157 

32,529 

32,827 

35,707 

40,995 

42,167 

45,296 

51,021 

58,235 

66,102 

72,671 

75,689 

81,592 

91,433 

97,165 

102,367 

115,622 

134,765 

149,642 

152,265 

2,124 

3,190 

5,478 

8,076 

9,956 

13,524 

14,312 

16,976 

21,800 

22,568 

26,477 

30,311 

32,758 

32,806 

36,222 

41,293 

42,181 

45,691 

51,617 

58,828 

66,765 

73,194 

75,837 

82,234 

92,036 

97,695 

103,051 

116,674 

136,664 

150,753 

153,551 

2,128 

3,366 

5,662 

8,252 

10,198 

13,920 

14,492 

17,174 

21,948 

22,537 

26,966 

30,552 

32,926 

32,763 

36,840 

41,537 

42,282 

46,085 

52,208 

59,357 

2,141 

3,501 

5,807 

8,448 

10,436 

14,281 

14,591 

17,459 

22,052 

22,533 

27,477 

30,664 

33,078 

32,713 

37,430 

41,834 

42,350 

46,359 

52,708 

60,039 

67,991 

73,835 

76,565 

83,317 

93,228 

98,682 

,924 104,995 

,992 119,233 

,164 139,579 

,046 152,802 

,389 155,382 

394 

594 

260 

821 

586 

148 

2,2i 

3,6 

6,0' 

8,5 

10,7 

14,4 

14,6 

18,0 

22,2 

22,6 

27,767 

30,839 

33,202 

32,743 

37,950 

41,958 

42,527 

46,787 

53,381 

60,604 

68,521 

74,095 

76,757 

84,243 

93,900 

98,877 

105,959 

120,524 

141,344 

153,015 

156,563 

2,295 

3,857 

6,271 

8,644 

11,058 

14,391 

14,842 

18,450 

22,497 

22,823 

28,066 

31,058 

33,305 

32,793 

38,279 

42,111 

42,764 

47,308 

53,899 

60,921 

69 ,036 

,436 

,238 

,005 

,493 

,861 

,178 

,055 

,687 

,606 

,887 

2,370 

4,015 

6,444 

8,811 

11,352 

14,401 

14,979 

19,004 

22,532 

23,083 

28,420 

31,223 

33,341 

33,065 

38,539 

42,245 

43,076 

47,791 

54,428 

61,542 

69,590 

74,787 

77,711 

85,828 

94,811 

99,282 

108,242 

123,937 

143,593 

152,197 

159,377 

2,103 

2,647 

4,641 

7,317 

9,148 

12,118 

14,661 

15,323 

20,540 

22,589 

24,501 

29,457 

31,883 

33,129 

34,328 

39,889 

42,202 

43,894 

49,371 

56,381 

63,616 

71,298 

75,215 

79,599 

88,482 

96,058 

100,561 

111,875 

129,906-

146,402 

152,102 

2,111 

3,049 

5,286 

7,910 

9,796 

13,043 

14,451 

16,605 

21,488 

22,524 

26,032 

30,157 

32,529 

32,827 

35,707 

40,995 

42,167 

45,296 

51,021 

58,235 

66,102 

72,671 

75,689 

81,592 

91,433 

97,165 

102,367 

115,622 

134,765 

149,642 

152,265 

2,141 

3,501 

5,607 

8,448 

10,436 

14,281 

14,591 

17,459 

22,052 

22,533 

27,477 

30,664 

33,078 

32,713 

37,430 

41,834 

42,350 

46,359 

52,708 

60,039 

67,991 

73,835 

76,565 

83,317 

93,228 

98,682 

104,995 

119,233 

139,579 

152,802 

155,382 

2,370 I 

4,015 I 

6,444 f 

8,811 I 

11,352 I 

14,401 [ 

14,979 | 

19,004 I 

22,532 | 

23,083 | 

28,420 I 

31,223 

33,341 

33,065 

38,539 

42,245 

43,076 

47,791 

54,428 

61,542 

69,590 

74,787 

77,711 f 

85,828 

94,811 I 

99,282 

108,242 

123,937 

143,593 

152,197 

159,377 

69. MANUFACTURERS' MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT SALES AND BUSINESS CONSTRUCTION 

EXPENDITURES (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

33.49 

31.49 

29.70 

34.51 

41.77 

38.04 

36.71 

41.00 

40.60 

42.41 

44.34 

50.23 

57.47 

68.12 

73.16 

97.03 

99.57 

105.45 

101.93 

116.77 

127.31 

151.99 

161.31 

33.8 5 

30.4 6 

31.14 

35.07 

42.65 

36.64 

37.56 

40.62 

40.81 

43.51 

45.16 

50.04 

58.39 

68.05 

72.80 

93.51 

101.56 

108.11 

102.01 

115.44 

126.20 

153.43 

163.07 

33.28 

29.39 

31.75 

35.56 

41.47 

36.47 

37.99 

41.20 

40.27 

44.23 

44.72 

50.57 

60.22 

70.90 

72.08 

94.63 

104.04 

106.88 

103.91 

116.61 

130.26 

153.83 

160.50 

34.04 

28.90 

31.60 

38.02 

41.29 

35.24 

38.39 

41.62 

40.42 

44.82 

46.07 

51.32 

61.01 

71.08 

71.47 

96.17 

102.71 

107.04 

102.09 

116.85 

134.03 

154.43 

159.56 

33. 

28. 

32.37 

38.51 

40.89 

34.63 

39.50 

41.92 

40.07 

45.51 

46.87 

52.58 

61.24 

71.24 

71.89 

93.88 

102.79 

106.00 

103.57 

116.52 

134.77 

155.94 

158.63 

32.31 

28.27 

32.82 

39.99 

40.68 

35.45 

39.79 

41.59 

40.58 

45.66 

46.60 

53.35 

61.38 

72.83 

73.12 

93.63 

103.92 

102.94 

105.33 

116.86 

137.63 

161.50 

159.41 

32.82 

29.26 

32.26 

39.50 

39.99 

34.32 

41.31 

42.53 

39.90 

45.10 

47.58 

55.65 

62.42 

73.78 

73.51 

93.75 

105.90 

104.89 

103.37 

116.34 

142.03 

159.16 

160.36 

31.30 

28.29 

33.24 

39.51 

41.24 

35.16 

40.24 

40.26 

41.69 

46.17 

47.82 

53.98 

62.02 

75.01 

74.35 

94.93 

106.67 

104.65 

104.91 

117.75 

141.20 

160.04 

161.73 

31.39 

28.36 

34.21 

39.34 

40.39 

35.26 

40.74 

41.31 

42.16 

45.30 

48.18 

54.64 

64.06 

74.94 

74.52 

96.66 

109.47 

102.14 

107.39 

117.17 

143.92 

165.09 

161.85 

31.93 

27.34 

34.20 

40.62 

40.62 

35.07 

40.50 

40.97 

42.58 

45.12 

48.91 

55.26 

65.42 

75.80 

73.56 

97.80 

108.38 

100.97 

106.94 

117.96 

147.05 

167.28 

164.97 

31.02 

28.22 

34.39 

41.84 

40.01 

36.04 

40.17 

40.65 

42.90 

45.16 

48.45 

55.66 

66.65 

74.33 

74.63 

99.00 

107.76 

101.46 

108.35 

120.81 

151.65 

166.64 

163.47 

30.48 

29.06 

34.93 

42.51 

38.09 

35.74 

41.08 

41.08 

43.17 

44.10 

48.65 

57.15 

68.95 

75.05 

77.93 

96.45 

108.12 

103.18 

115.46 

122.93 

150.40 

163.07 

165.75 

33.54 

30.45 

30.86 

35.05 

41.96 

37.05 

37.42 

40.94 

40.56 

43.38 

44.74 

50.28 

58.69 

69.02 

72.68 

95.06 

101.72 

106.81 

102.62 

116.27 

127.92 

153.08 

161.63 

33.3 5 

28.5 5 

32.26 

38.84 

40.95 

35.11 

39.23 

41.71 

40.36 

45.33 

46.51 

52.42 

61.21 

71.72 

72.16 

94.56 

103.14 

105.33 

103.66 

116.74 

135.48 

157.29 

159.20 

31.84 

28.64 

33.24 

39.45 

40.54 

34.91 

40.76 

41.37 

41.25 

45.52 

47.86 

54.76 

62.83 

74.58 

74.13 

95.11 

107.35 

103.89 

105.22 

117.09 

142.38 

161.43 

161.31 

31.14 

28.21 

34.51 

41.66 

39.57 

35.62 

40.58 

40.90 I 

42.88 I 

44.79 

48.67 

56.02 

67.01 I 

75.06 I 

75.37 I 

97.75 I 

108.09 [ 

101.87 

110.25 

120.57 

149.70 I 

165.66 I 

164.73 I 

70. MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES, TOTAL BOOK VALUE, IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) END OF PERIOD 

78.19 

83.20 

81.47 

90.43 

101.52 

107.67 

108.65 

105.25 

110.22 

116.00 

114.54 

114.03 

120.33 

122.35 

124.95 

131.11 

136.69 

144.22 

152.71 

169.58 

176.77 

184.33 

192.45 

195.92 

200.72 

208.14 

219.82 

225.40 

78.66 

83.50 

81.28 

91.15 

101.45 

107.90 

108.30 

105.32 

111.29 

115.81 

114.03 

114.40 

121.58 

122.29 

125.56 

131.50 

137.14 

144.69 

154.16 

170.48 

177.29 

185.36 

193.12 

196.51 

200.74 

209.03 

220.63 

223.47 

79.15 

83.52 

81.87 

92.20 

101.55 

108.39 

107.88 

106.04 

111.49 

115.77 

113.70 

114.80 

122.43 

121.67 

126.42 

132.00 

137.68 

145.98 

155.26 

171.31 

177.20 

186.06 

193.42 

196.96 

200.82 

209.41 

221.43 

221.69 

79.43 

83.16 

82.23 

93.57 

101.56 

109.38 

107.36 

105.92 

112.56 

116.05 

113.16 

116.24 

122.35 

121.68 

126.58 

132.13 

138.23 

146.63 

156.35 

172.06 

178.29 

186.79 

193.99 

197.54 

201.20 

209.81 

221.54 

220.39 

79.70 

83.12 

83.12 

95.24 

101.31 

109.72 

106.94 

106.57 

113.19 

116.04 

112.67 

116.79 

123.08 

121.96 

127.54 

132.48 

138.68 

147.27 

157.89 

172.48 

179.42 

187.53 

193.48 

198.16 

202.22 

210.72 

222.65 

218.20 

80.69 

83.16 

83.81 

96.53 

101.96 

110.18 

106.38 

107.55 

113.70 

116.20 

112.46 

117.55 

123.34 

121.81 

128.21 

133.09 

139.31 

148.00 

159.65 

172.32 

180.17 

188.40 

194.29 

198.90 

202.49 

211.78 

223.75 

217.41 

81.82 

83.30 

82.74 

97.46 

101.94 

110.99 

105.89 

108.14 

114.24 

116.43 

112.30 

118.33 

123.76 

122.21 

128.67 

133.47 

139.58 

149.17 

160.93 

173.19 

180.56 

189.35 

194.97 

199.07 

202.59 

212.91 

224.17 

217.05 

81.95 

83.32 

84.64 

98.56 

101.91 

110.94 

105.26 

108.78 

114.63 

117.05 

112.01 

118.13 

123.52 

122.62 

129.10 

134.08 

140.09 

150.08 

162.09 

173.94 

181.45 

190.22 

195.44 

199.39 

203.98 

213.20 

223.65 

217.43 

82.04 

83.63 

85.61 

98.97 

103.16 

110.99 

105.19 

108.64 

115.21 

117.46 

112.72 

117.57 

123.92 

123.20 

129.87 

134.83 

141.40 

150.41 

163.28 

174.21 

182.08 

191.16 

195.63 

199.79 

204.87 

214.01 

224.51 

217.15 

82.15 

83.11 

86.58 

99.68 

104.20 

110.26 

104.71 

109.18 

115.29 

116.37 

112.96 

117.77 

123.76 

123.34 

130.46 

135.76 

141.17 

150.82 

164.96 

174.25 

183.06 

192.00 

195.18 

200.10 

205.75 

215.15 

225.80 

218.02 

82.15 

82.31 

88.04 

100.28 

104.81 

109.52 

105.08 

109.30 

115.82 

116.10 

113.20 

117.79 

123.91 

124.01 

130.39 

136.17 

142.21 

151.41 

166.52 

175.40 

183.39 

191.98 

195.68 

199.74 

206.38 

216.71 

225.72 

216.74 

81.91 

81.28 

88.54 

100.72 

105.26 

109.18 

104.92 

109.60 

115.76 

116.16 

113.92 

119.34 

122.89 

124.22 

130.78 

136.27 

143.29 

152.13 

168.06 

176.57 

184.00 

192.81 

195.72 

200.34 

207.01 

218.93 

226.25 

215.08 

79.15 

83.52 

81.87 

92.20 

101.55 

108.39 

107.88 

106.04 

111.49 

115.77 

113.70 

114.80 

122.43 

121.67 

126.42 

132.00 

137.68 

145.98 

155.26 

171.31 

177.20 

186.06 

193.42 

196.96 

200.82 

209.41 

221.43 

221.69 

80.69 

83.16 

83.81 

96.53 

101.96 

110.18 

106.38 

107.55 

113.70 

116.20 

112.46 

117.55 

123.34 

121.81 

128.21 

133.09 

139.31 

148.00 

159.65 

172.32 

180.17 

188.40 

194.29 

198.90 

202.49 

211.78 

223.75 

217.41 

82.04 

83.63 

85.61 

98.97 

103.16 

110.99 

105.19 

108.64 

115.21 

117.46 

112.72 

117.57 

123.92 

123.20 

129.87 

134.83 

141.40 

150.41 

163.28 

174.21 

182.08 

191.16 

195.63 

199.79 

204.87 

214.01 

224.51 

217.15 

81.91 I 

81.28 I 

88.54 [ 

100.72 I 

105.26 I 

109.18 I 

104.92 I 

109.60 I 

115.76 I 

116.16 I 

113.92 I 

119.34 I 

122.89 I 

124.22 I 

130.78 I 

136.27 I 

143.29 [ 

152.13 

168.06 

176.57 

184.00 

192.81 

195.72 

200.34 

207.01 

218.93 

226.25 

215.08 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

195U... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954.. . 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

195b... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Jan. Feb. Mar. 

71. MANUFACTURING AND 

47'.52 

53. JO 

49.66 

62.26 

70.72 

74.01 

75.73 

73.5.5 

80.27 

87.85 

87.67 

87.14 

92.92 

94.43 

96.18 

101.24 

106.02 

112.46 

121.76 

138.23 

146.03 

156.28 

168.20 

176.19 

185.27 

200.28 

231.58 

278.71 

48.24 

53.33 

49.63 

63.74 

70.63 

74.19 

75.44 

73.82 

81.33 

88.05 

87.92 

87.44 

93.96 

$4.21 

96.76 

101.56 

10*6.40 

112.99 

123.24 

138.90 

146.89 

157.67 

169.27 

177.14 

185.90 

202.68 

234.76 

277.87 

48.83 

53.06 

50.07 

65.27 

70.62 

74.64 

75.12 

74.45 

81.75 

88.21 

87.44 

87.89 

94.73 

93.68 

97.41 

101.78 

106.82 

114.28 

124.42 

139.56 

147.33 

158.77 

169.75 

178.34 

186.74 

204.93 

238.51 

276.63 

12. COMMERCIAL AND INDUST 

6,511 

7,364 

10,475 

13,417 

14,055 

12,677 

16,503 

19,632 

21,227 

21,000 

20,529 

24,515 

28,695 

29,171 

28,567 

31,433 

32,999 

33,582 

36,039 

38,931 

43,562 

53,062 

60,701 

65,333 

73,450 

83,205 

83,235 

84,509 

93,885 

114,558 

133,817 

57.8 

27.3 

36.6 

39.0 

38.1 

36.5 

48.4 

50.1 

58.7 

52.7 

54.9 

61.2 

63.2 

54.3 

59.6 

67.5 

57.7 

66.1 

70.5 

75.5 

84.0 

94.8 

100.5 

104.4 

109.8 

105.2 

101.4 

107.0 

122.5 

126.3 

109.0 

6,388 

7,430 

10,713 

13,358 

13,979 

12,764 

17,116 

19,641 

21,277 

21,064 

20,692 

24,686 

28,720 

28,835 

28,583 

31,870 

32,966 

33,712 

36,126 

39,195 

44,618 

53,908 

61,023 

65,595 

74,190 

84,229 

83,709 

85,052 

98,131 

114,645 

130,508 

6,283 

7,621 

11,149 

13,371 

13,861 

12,763 

17,579 

19,761 

21,430 

21,036 

20,916 

25,414 

29,182 

28,728 

28,820 

32,093 

33,111 

33,907 

36,251 

39,201 

45,563 

54,585 

61,592 

65,843 

74,886 

84,462 

83,851 

85,444 

101,548 

117,146 

129,056 

7 3. INDEX 

57.4 

22.8 

37.0 

38.7 

37.4 

37.0 

48.9 

50.4 

59.2 

52.2 

55.8 

60.6 

63.9 

52.4 

60.9 

66.9 

57.1 

67.5 

71.0 

75.9 

84.8 

95.6 

99.2 

105.0 

110.1 

104.8 

101.5 

108.3 

124.3 

125.6 

105.6 

56.4 

29.7 

37.6 

38.9 

36.8 

37.8 

49.6 

50.7 

59.9 

51.4 

57.4 

60.6 

63.5 

51.4 

62.3 

65.4 

57.3 

68.0 

71.3 

76.1 

86.3 

97.0 

98.5 

104.7 

110.9 

104.9 

101.2 

109.3 

124.8 

126.0 

104.7 

Monthly 

Apr. May June 

TRADE INVENTORIES, TOTAL 

July Aug. Sept. Oct. 

BOOK VALUE, IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

49*.20 49i36 50*.il 

52.41 51.87 51.42 

50.37 51.06 51.67 

66.65 67.87 68.65 

70.43 70.05 70.23 

75.37 75.69 76.17 

74.74 74.42 74.04 

74.52 75.02 75.69 

82.84 83.51 84.04 

88.52 88.51 88.58 

86.65 ' 86.08 85.94 

89.07 89.58 90.48 

94.74 95.31 95.52 

93.68 93.75 93.66 

97.56 98.31 98.81 

101.88 102.33 102.80 

107.39 107.78 108.25 

114.89 115.58 116.44 

125.44 127.02 128.72 

140.14 140.51 140.72 

148.50 149.83 150.54 

159.79 160.93 161.91 

170.93 170.86 171.76 

179.18 180.26 180.55 

187.72 189.36 189.90 

206.38 209.27 211.87 

241.37 245.92 250.27 

275.63 274.14 273.42 

51.06 

51.05 

51.40 

69.10 

69.99 

76.96 

73.70 

76.24 

84.52 

88.83 

85.74 

91.18 

95.90 

93.87 

99.19 

103.23 

108.48 

117.48 

130.06 

141.41 

151.06 

163.05 

172.95 

181.34 

190.62 

214.27 

255.29 

273.28 

51.49 

50.81 

53.23 

69.53 

69.91 

77.19 

73.24 

76.98 

84.96 

89.42 

85.59 

91.33 

95.72 

94.32 

99.67 

103.72 

108.86 

118.48 

131.49 

142.36 

152.13 

164.07 

173.87 

182.45 

192.57 

216.67 

259.81 

274.91 

51.92 

50.89 

54.71 

69.53 

70.80 

77.41 

73.17 

77.39 

85.63 

89.88 

85.95 

90.94 

95.88 

94.72 

100.39 

104.28 

110.02 

118.88 

132.64 

142.78 

152.86 

165.37 

174.34 

183.41 

194.03 

218.37 

264.74 

275.58 

52.34 

50.56 

56.38 

69.77 

71.58 

76.99 

72.85 

78.33 

86.05 

89.16 

86.26 

91.23 

95.80 

94.88 

100.91 

105.04 

110.01 

119.35 

134.19 

142.97 

154.09 

166.60 

174.46 

183.78 

195.32 

220.53 

270.63 

277.68 

Nov. 

52*.58 

50.10 

58.37 

69.98 

72.06 

76.40 

73.20 

78.91 

86.94 

88.99 

86.55 

91.14 

95.85 

95.50 

100.95 

105.44 

110.76 

120.11 

135.60 

144.10 

154.71 

167.22 

175.17 

183.60 

196.66 

223.80 

274.38 

276.80 

RIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING, WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLA 

6,268 6,256 6,410 

7,864 8,047 8,211 

11,506 11,592 11,639 

13,473 13,834 14,065 

13,605 13,409 13,163 

12,849 12,936 13,242 

18,079 18,453 18,646 

19,742 19,809 19,969 

21,675 21,816 21,747 

20,967 20,811 20,650 

21,049 21,416 21,796 

25,932 26,448 26,799 

29,503 29,650 30,033 

28,554 28,168 28,079 

29,092 29,573 30,042 

32,293 32,591 33,011 

33,079 33,020 32,955 

34,121 34,269 34,509 

36,458 36,626 36,740 

39,554 39,882 40,137 

46,203 47,209 47,718 

55,022 55,877 56,955 

61,996 62,132 62,494 

67,010 67,184 67,664 

76,283 77,457 78,541 

84,770 85,241 85,420 

83,163 83,716 83,701 

86,303 86,696 86,127 

103,726 104,919 106,008 

121,497 123,199 124,442 

127,162 125,270 123,742 

OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 

(1967=100) 

54.6 51.9 49.5 

30.0 27.3 30.4 

37.8 37.9 38.0 

38.4 38.9 39.5 

36.1 35.2 35.2 

40.2 42.0 44.1 

49.9 49.5 49.3 

50.1 50.4 48.1 

60.1 60.1 59.6 

51.0 51.3 51.4 

58.3 59.6 59.6 

61.9 60.6 60.4 

62.5 61.7 62.7 

50.3 50.7 52.5 

64.1 65.5 66.1 

64.3 63.8 62.5 

59.3 60.6 61.7 

68.5 68.0 67.6 

72.3 73.3 73.6 

77.2 77.5 77.7 

87.1 88.0 88.8 

98.1 98.5 99.0 

99.1 98.9 98.7 

105.1 106.7 107.2 

110.6 109.6 110.7 

104.1 103.6 103.1 

101.4 102.7 102.7 

111.2 111.7 112.3 

125.3 126.3 127.1 

126.0 127.5 128.5 

105.4 105.5 107.0 

RS) 

6,454 

8,614 

11,770 

14,385 

12,833 

13,619 

18,757 

20,141 

21,778 

20,651 

22,244 

27,145 

30,245 

28,039 

30,026 

32,993 

33,012 

34,740 

36,872 

40,428-

48,072 

57,838 

62,824 

68,015 

79,055 

85,599 

83,101 

86,218 

107,920 

128,154 

123,132 

, DURABLE 

47.8 

32.4 

37.1 

40.1 

35.2 

45.7 

48.2 

45.8 

60.4 

50.9 

60.0 

55.7 

62.3 

52.9 

62.8 

62.4 

62.8 

68.3 

73.3 

78.6 

90.5 

99.4 

98.5 

106.9 

111.2 

103.2 

102.2 

112.9 

128.4 

128.5 

109.3 

6,434 

9,074 

12,019 

14,507 

12,660 

14,057 

18,865 

20,190 

21,934 

19,804 

22,664 

27,418 

30,285 

27,941 

30,456 

32,840 

33,131 

35,038 

37,047 

40,839 

49,139 

58,857 

62,875 

68,681 

79,884 

86,220 

84,437 

86,801 

110,370 

129,335 

121,572 

6,487 

9,443 

12,250 

14,461 

12,641 

14,696 

18,968 

20,381 

21,819 

19,753 

22,977 

27,778 

30,374 

28,122 

30,646 

32,956 

33,214 

35,318 

37,341 

41,418 

50,141 

59,328 

63,203 

69,339 

80,889 

86,230 

86,139 

87,803 

110,872 

130,988 

121,805 

MANUFACTURES 

39.7 

34.3 

37.2 

39.9 

35.5 

47.6 

47.9 

51.8 

60.2 

50.8 

60.3 

60.0 

62.6 

54.2 

58.7 

62.1 

64.1 

68.8 

73.2 

79.2 

90.5 

99.7 

99.9 

106.5 

111.5 

103.0 

100.3 

114.6 

127.5 

128.6 

112.3 

32.1 

35.6 

37.7 

39.5 

36.3 

47.2 

48.4 

54.4 

58.6 

50.7 

60.2 

61.7 

61.5 

54.9 

58.2 

61.2 

63.1 

69.3 

73.9 

79.9 

90.6 

100.8 

99.4 

106.4 

111.9 

101.4 

102.5 

116.4 

129.2 

129.1 

113.5 

6,498 

9,863 

12,548 

14,356 

12,670 

15,027 

19,111 

20,650 

21,640 

19,718 

23,421 

27,858 

29,969 

28,215 

30,915 

32,996 

33,215 

35,635 

37,821 

41,625 

50,812 

59,822 

63,587 

70,163 

82,073 

84,649 

85,677 

89,350 

111,133 

131,813 

122,269 

30.0 

36.5 

37.8 

40.0 

33.0 

47.6 

48.4 

55.5 

58.0 

51.5 

61.2 

62.5 

60.0 

55.1 

57.9 

60.9 

64.5 

69.5 

74.7 

77.5 

91.3 

102.1 

100.1 

107.0 

111.9 

97.1 

103.7 

118.4 

129.3 

126.6 

112.7 

6,715 

10,134 

12,904 

14,196 

12,604 

15,462 

19,194 

21,031 

21,451 

19,955 

23,771 

28,199 

29,573 

28,342 

31,076 

33,118 

33,280 

35,939 

38,579 

42,068 

51,650 

60,282 

64,065 

71,105 

82,627 

83,982 

85,598 

90,748 

111,492 

133,598 

123,042 

31.4 

36.9 

38.4 

39.3 

33.4 

47.7 

49.2 

57.1 

55.7 

52.5 

60.9 

62.3 

58.2 

58.4 

58.6 

59.4 

66.1 

69.9 

74.9 

81.3 

91.7 

100.3 

102.8 

108.6 

110.0 

96.5 

103.8 

120.0 

129.8 

121.6 

113.4 

Dec. 

52i51 

49.50 

59.82 

70.24 

72.38 

76.12 

73.18 

79.52 

87.30 

89.05 

87.09 

92.13 

94.72 

95.60 

101.06 

105.48 

111.50 

120.91 

136.79 

145.36 

155.36 

168.30 

175.42 

184.76 

198.04 

227.93 

278.39 

275.48 

7,147 

10,260 

13,158 

14,087 

12,573 

15,986 | 

19,411 

21,133 

21,058 

20,314 

24,110 

28,395 

29,517 

28,496 

31,2881 

33,018 

33,429 

35,986 

39,045 

42,737 

52,3U0 

60,532 

64,830 

72,210 

83,365 

83,566 

85,216 

91,910 

112,909 

134,783 

123,887 

32.2 1 

36.8 

38.7 

38.7 

35.2 

48.2 

49.6 

57.8 

53.9 

53.4 

61.5 

63.4 

56.0 

58.5 

65.0 

57.6 

67.1 

70.1 

74.9 

83.3 

93.7 

100.9 

103.8 

108.8 

109.Ol 

100.31 

104.61 

121.8 

129.7 

114.7 

114.4 

Quarterly 

IQ 

48.83 

53.06 

50.07 

65.27 

70.b2 

74.64 

75.12 

74.45 

81.75 

88.21 

87.44 

87.89 

94.73 

93.68 

97.41 

101.78 

106.82 

114.28 

124.42 

139.56 

147.33 

158.77 

169.75 

178.34 

18b.74 

204.93 

238.51 

276.63 

6,394 

7,472 

10,779 

13,382 

13,965 

12,735 

17,066 

19,678 

21,311 

21,033 

20,712 

24,872 

28,866 

28,911 

28,657 

31,799 

33,025 

33,734 

36,139 

39,109 

44,581 

53,852 

61,105 

65,590 

74,175 

83,965 

83,598 

85,002 

97,855 

115,450 

131,127 

57.2 

26. b 

37.1 

38.9 

37.4 

37.1 

49.0 

50.4 

59.3 

52.1 

56.0 

60.8 

63.5 

52.7 

60.9 

66.6 

57.4 

67.2 

70.9 

75.8 

85.0 

95.8 

99.4 

104.7 

110.3 

105.0 

101.4 

108.2 

123.9 

126.0 

106.4 

II Q III Q IV Q 

END OF PERIOD 

5o!ii 

51.42 

51.67 

68.65 

70.23 

76.17 

74.04 

75.69 

84.04 

88.58 

85.94. 

90.48 

95.52 

+ 93.66 

98.81 

102.80 

108.25 

116.44 

128.72 

140.72 

150.54 

161.91 

171.76 

180.55 

189.90 

211.87 

250.27 

273.42 

51.92 

50.89 

54.71 

69.53 

70.80 

77.41 

73.17 

77.39 

85.63 

89.88 

85.95 

90.94 

95.88 

94.72 

100.39 

104.28 

110.02 

118.88 

132.64 

142.78 

152.86 

165.37 

174.34 

183.41 

194.03 

218.37 

264.74 

275.58 

AVERAGE FOR 

6,311 

8,041 

11,579 

13,791 

13,392 

13,009 

18,393 

19,840 

21,746 

20,809 

21,420 

26,393 

29,729 

28,267 

29,569 

32,632 

33,018 

34,300 

36,608 

39,858 

47,043 

55,951 

62,207 

67,286 

77,427 

85,144 

83,527 

86,375 

104,884 

123,046 

125,391 

6,458 

9,044 

12,013 

14,451 

12,711 

14,124 

18,863 

20,237 

21,844 

20,069 

22,628 

27,447 

30,301 

28,034 

30,376 

32,930 

33,119 

35,032 

37,087 

40,895 

49,117 

58,674 

62,967 

68,678 

79,943 

86,016 

84,559 

86,941 

109,721 

129,492 

122,170 

AVERAGE FOR 

52.0 

29.2 

37.9 

38.9 

35.5 

42.1 

49.6 

49.5 

59.9 

51.2 

59.2 

61.0 

62.3 

51.2 

65.2 

63.5 

60.5 

68.0 

73.1 

77.5 

88.0 

98.5 

98.9 

106.3 

110.3 

103.6 

102.3 

111.7 

126.2 

127.3 

106.0 

39.9 

34.1 

37.3 

39.8 

35.7 

46.8 

48.2 

50.7 

59.7 

50.8 

60.2 

59.1 

62.1 

54.0 

59.9 

61.9 

63.3 

68.8 

73.5 

79.2 

90.5 

100.0 

99.3 

106.6 

111.5 

102.5 

101.7 

114.6 

128.4 

128.7 

111.7 

52.51 

49.50 

59.82 

70.24 

72.38 

76.12 

73.18 

79.52 

87.30 

89.05 

87.09 

92.13 

94.72 

95.60 

101.06 

105.48 

111.50 

120.91 

136.79 

145.36 

155.36 

168.30 

175.42 

184.76 

198.04 

227.93 

278.39 

275.48 

PERIOD 

6,787 

10,086 

12,870 

14,213 

12,616 

15,492 

19,239 

20,938 

21,383 

19,996 

23,767 

28,151 

29,686 

28,351 

31,093 

33,044 

33,308 

35,853 

38,482 

42,143 

51,587 

60,212 

64,161 

71,159 

82,688 

84,066 

85,497 

90,669 

111,845 

133,398 

123,066 

PERIOD 

31.2 1 

36.7 

38.3 

39.3 

33.9 

47.8 

49.1 

56.8 

55.9 

52.5 

61.2 

62.7 i 

58.1 

57.3 

60.5 

59.3 

65.9 

69.8 

74.8 

80.7 

92.2 

101.1 

102.2 

108.1 

110.3 

98.0 

104.0 

120.1 

129.6 

121.0 

113.5 

Annual 

52^ 1 

49.50 

59.82 

70.24 

72.38 

76.12 

73.18 

79.52 

87.30 

89.05 

87.09 

! 92.13 

94.72 

95.60 

! 101.06 

1 105.48 

111.50 

120.91 

136.79 

145.36 

155.36 

168.30 

175.42 

184.76 

198.04 

227.93 

278.39 

275.48 

6,488 

! 8,660 

11,810 

| 13,959 

1 13,171 

13,840 

18,390 

20,173 

21,571 

20,477 

22,132 

26,716 

29,646 

28,391 

29,924 

32,601 

33,118 

34,730 

37,079 

40,501 

48,082 

57,172 

62,610 

68,178 

78,558 

84,798 

84,295 

87,247 

106,076 

125,346 

125,438 

45.2 

31.6 

37.7 

39.3 

35.7 

43.5 

48.9 

51.9 

58.7 

51.8 

59.2 

61.1 

61.6 

53.9 

61.9 

62.9 

61.8 

68.6 

73.1 

78.3 

89.0 

98.9 

100.0 

106.5 

1 110.6 

102.3 

102.4 

113.7 

127.1 

125.7 

109.3 

The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

194b... 

1947.. . 

194b... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

iy53... 

1954... 

1955... 

195b... 

1957... 

195b... 

1959... 

I960... 

1961... 

19b2... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

19b8. . . 

1969... 

197U... 

1971... 

1972.. . 

1973... 

1974.. . 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946.. . 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

195b.. . 

1959... 

196U... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964.. . 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954.. . 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

39.4 

38.2 

41.6 

42.5 

41.8 

43.7 

49.7 

47.7 

50.9 

50.1 

54.5 

59.8 

60.9 

59.9 

65.5 

70.0 

68.3 

74.0 

77.2 

82.7 

88.9 

94.1 

98.8 

102.8 

108.9 

112.2 

113.6 

122.1 

130.3 

135.5 

119.8 

33.1 

36.8 

42.0 

43.7 

42.5 

45.4 

52.4 

48.1 

53.7 

51.1 

56.7 

61.1 

62.0 

60.9 

66.5 

71.4 

68.6 

75.1 

79.2 

84.0 

90.7 

95.6 

99.0 

103.3 

108.9 

108.0 

112.2 

119.8 

129.5 

128.3 

117.0 

36^6 

39.6 

37.7 

31.8 

41.7 

50.3 

53.4 

49.2 

46.6 

55.5 

62.6 

54.8 

54.1 

60.9 

56.6 

60.1 

63.4 

70.3 

78.2 

93.4 

100.3 

103.2 

109.9 

109.8 

101.9 

110.1 

128.2 

137.7 

130.8 

Feb. Mar. 

7 4. INDEX 

39.3 

39.4 

41.4 

42.7 

41.8 

44.2 

49.7 

47.9 

51.5 

50.4 

54.9 

59.9 

61.4 

59.6 

66.5 

69.4 

68.7 

75.0 

78.1 

83.1 

89.1 

94.5 

98.3 

103.6 

110.3 

112.6 

113.5 

122.7 

132.4 

135.7 

118.4 

32.9 

38.2 

41.9 

43.8 

42.4 

45.5 

52.4 

48.5 

54.2 

51.7 

56.9 

60.9 

62.8 

6U.5 

67.0 

70.6 

69.0 

75.5 

80.1 

83.8 

90.9 

95.9 

98.4 

104.1 

109.8 

108.8 

112.1 

120.6 

130.5 

127.8 

116.1 

39.2 

39.1 

41.4 

42.4 

41.6 

44.6 

49.3 

47.8 

51.7 

50.7 

56.0 

59.7 

61.7 

59.3 

66.7 

69.7 

69.3 

75.5 

78.8 

82.8 

89.7 

95.7 

97.9 

104.3 

110.7 

111.9 

113.5 

123.7 

133.3 

136.8 

116.1 

7 5. If 

32.8 

38.0 

42.0 

43.3 

42.7 

46.4 

51.6 

48.7 

54.2 

51.8 

58.0 

60.8 

62.9 

60.0 

67.0 

70.7 

69.0 

76.1 

80.4 

83.4 

91.7 

96.6 

98.8 

104.3 

110.0 

109.1 

112.3 

121.5 

131.4 

128.5 

117.0 

7 6. INDEX 

37!o 

39.4 

37.6 

32.8 

42.2 

50.9 

53.6 

48.6 

47.3 

56.3 

64.0 

52.8 

54.8 

61.3 

56.1 

60.9 

64.4 

69.9 

79.6 

93.2 

100.4 

103.5 

109.5 

109.9 

103.0 

111.7 

130.3 

139.2 

128.0 

37.2 

39.7 

36.7 

33.2 

42.8 

51.3 

54.0 

47.8 

47.8 

56.9 

63.6 

51.7 

55.4 

61.4 

56.0 

61.7 

64.0 

70.8 

80.6 

95.0 

100.0 

104.5 

111.1 

109.7 

102.3 

114.0 

130.1 

140.3 

125.7 

Apr. May June 

OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 

39.3 

39.0 

41.0 

42.9 

40.9 

45.4 

49.3 

47.9 

51.7 

50.6 

56.4 

60.1 

60.8 

59.0 

67.5 

69.8 

70.1 

75.3 

79.6 

84.7 

89.6 

95.3 

99.4 

104.4 

110.5 

112.2 

114.6 

125.1 

132.9 

136.5 

118.8 

(1967=100) 

39.3 39.5 

38.9 38.8 

40.6 40.4 

43.1 43.4 

40.9 41.3 

45.8 46.2 

49.1 48.7 

47.4 48.7 

52.2 51.7 

50.9 51.2 

57.2 57.3 

59.7 59.3 

61.0 60.9 

59.7 61.0 

67.7 67.4 

69.9 69.6 

70.5 71.2 

75.7 75.7 

79.9 79.9 

85.3 85.0 

90.1 90.4 

96.4 96.6 

97.8 98.7 

105.6 106.2 

111.1 111.6 

112.3 112.4 

115.1 116.1 

125.1 125.9 

134.4 133.4 

137.5 137.6 

120.8 125.5 

JDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUC 

33.0 

38.4 

41.9 

43.7 

42.6 

47.7 

50.7 

48.7 

54.1 

51.8 

58.4 

61.1 

62.3 

59.4 

68.1 

71.1 

70.7 

76.8 

80.7 

85.5 

91.5 

96.9 

99.3 

104.5 

109.1 

109.6 

113.0 

122.5 

131.2 

129.6 

119.0 

(1967=100) 

33.1 33.3 

38.5 38.6 

41.6 41.6 

43.5 44.2 

42.6 43.1 

48.8 50.1 

49.8 49.1 

48.6 50.0 

54.3 53.5 

52.1 52.4 

59.2 58.7 

60.7 60.6 

62.4 62.7 

60.3 61.5 

68.4 68.1 

71.6 71.1 

71.5 72.3 

77.2 76.7 

80.9 81.4 

86.2 86.0 

92.0 92.3 

96.9 97.3 

99.0 98.8 

105.2 105.7 

108.2 109.3 

110.1 110.3 

113.2 113.9 

123.0 123.2 

132.1 131.2 

130.3 131.2 

120.4 124.3 

OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 

37i7 

39.4 

36.1 

34.1 

43.9 

51.1 

54.0 

47.0 

49.4 

58.6 

62.4 

50.7 

56.8 

60.7 

56.6 

62.1 

64.5 

72.4 

81.3 

95.7 

100.5 

104.1 

112.3 

109.4 

102.1 

115.1 

131.7 

141.3 

125.6 

(1967=100) 

37i9 3&\2 

39.3 39.8 

35.3 34.7 

35.6 37.0 

44.3 44.8 

51.4 51.7 

53.7 53.4 

46.9 46.3 

50.1 50.7 

58.4 58.6 

61.3 61.5 

49.4 49.4 

58.7 60.1 

60.9 60.1 

56.7 57.1 

62.1 62.7 

64.4 64.6 

73.2 73.5 

82.5 83.7 

97.0 97.9 

100.4 99.8 

105.7 105.4 

111.7 112.8 

108.8 108.1 

101.5 102.3 

116.2 117.3 

133.1 134.3 

143.6 143.8 

126.0 126.6 

July Aug. Sept. 

NONDURABLE MANUFACTURES 

39.4 

38.9 

40.9 

43.1 

41.2 

47.6 

48.1 

49.1 

51.9 

51.4 

57.3 

59.7 

61.4 

61.7 

68.6 

69.7 

71.6 

76.1 

79.7 

85.7 

90.9 

97.4 

98.2 

105.9 

112.8 

113.1 

117.2 

126.0 

133.8 

137.4 

128.1 

37.6 

39.9 

41.0 

42.7 

41.8 

48.8 

47.3 

49.7 

51.5 

51.3 

56.9 

60.1 

61.5 

62.6 

68.5 

68.9 

72.2 

75.9 

80.7 

86.0 

91.3 

97.5 

100.3 

107.2 

112.6 

111.7 

117.0 

127.5 

134.5 

137.2 

130.5 

37.5 

40.2 

41.2 

42.6 

42.7 

48.3 

47.1 

50.1 

51.1 

52.1 

57.7 

60.1 

61.6 

63.0 

68.7 

68.8 

72.1 

76.5 

81.0 

86.0 

91.7 

97.7 

101.4 

107.9 

112.3 

112.3 

118.2 

128.0 

134.0 

136.4 

132.9 

riON, CONSUMER GOODS 

33.3 

39.5 

41.8 

44.2 

43.5 

51.6 

47.5 

49.1 

53.6 

52.6 

58.9 

60.7 

62.9 

62.4 

69.0 

70.4 

72.9 

78.0 

81.2 

87.2 

92.3 

97.2 

98.6 

105.5 

110.9 

110.5 

115.5 

124.0 

131.4 

131.2 

126.6 

31.8 

40.8 

42.1 

43.7 

43.9 

53.3 

46.4 

50.1 

53.3 

52.7 

59.0 

61.1 

63.3 

62.6 

69.0 

70.6 

73.4 

77.1 

81.8 

87.1 

92.2 

96.8 

99.7 

106.8 

111.3 

109.2 

115.1 

125.5 

130.2 

132.2 

127.5 

33.3 

41.6 

42.5 

43.5 

44.6 

52.0 

46.9 

51.4 

52.5 

53.2 

59.4 

61.0 

63.3 

61.9 

68.8 

70.3 

72.2 

77.6 

82.0 

86.1 

93.6 

97.2 

100.0 

107.1 

110.5 

108.4 

115.8 

126.2 

132.9 

131.1 

129.0 

, BUSINESS EQUIPMENT 

37!5 

40.0 

34.1 

38.2 

45.2 

49.2 

54.2 

46.2 

50.9 

58.6 

61.8 

49.7 

60.2 

59.4 

57.4 

63.2 

65.5 

74.5 

85.1 

99.5 

97.5 

104.0 

113.9 

108.1 

103.8 

116.6 

134.7 

145.2 

127.3 

38.2 

39.9 

33.8 

40.3 

45.8 

50.1 

54.0 

45.9 

51.2 

59.3 

61.7 

50.6 

59.7 

58.6 

57.7 

63.9 

67.1 

74.4 

85.1 

99.9 

99.4 

105.8 

113.9 

107.2 

104.1 

119.2 

135.8 

144.4 

129.9 

38.7 

39.7 

33.6 

39.3 

46.8 

51.3 

53.4 

45.4 

51.5 

59.5 

60.9 

51.1 

59.2 

58.1 

58.6 

63.8 

66.9 

75.1 

86.8 

101.0 

99.3 

106.3 

114.5 

105.3 

105.9 

120.8 

136.7 

146.5 

129.2 

Oct. 

37.2 

40.9 

41.9 

42.6 

43.3 

48.5 

46.6 

50.7 

50.7 

52.5 

58.5 

60.6 

60.9 

63.6 

67.9 

69.0 

73.6 

76.1 

81.4 

86.5 

92.4 

97.8 

102.2 

108.1 

112.3 

112.4 

119.5 

129.0 

135.0 

133.6 

133.6 

33.8 

42.1 

43.2 

44.0 

44.7 

51.6 

46.6 

52.2 

52.5 

53.3 

60.5 

61.5 

62.3 

62.4 

68.5 

71.0 

74.2 

77.4 

82.6 

84.4 

94.1 

99.2 

101.5 

107.8 

110.6 

106.9 

117.0 

127.5 

133.1 

129.7 

128.7 

39.0 

39.2 

32.2 

40.1 

47.6 

51.8 

53.4 

45.3 

53.9 

60.0 

59.2 

51.7 

58.8 

57.6 

58.5 

64.1 

68.1 

74.5 

88.0 

100.7 

98.4 

107.5 

115.0 

102.2 

106.7 

123.2 

137.7 

144.4 

128.8 

Nov. 

37.6 

41.3 

42.4 

42.2 

43.1 

48.4 

47.1 

51.3 

50.2 

53.1 

59.3 

60.3 

60.3 

64.4 

68.0 

68.3 

74.5 

76.6 

81.7 

86.9 

92.9 

98.2 

102.6 

109.0 

112.4 

111.9 

120.1 

129.9 

135.1 

128.9 

136.2 

34.8 

42.7 

43.8 

43.5 

44.1 

51.3 

47.4 

53.3 

51.7 

54.5 

60.7 

61.1 

62.1 

65.5 

67.0 

69.7 

75.5 

77.9 

82.7 

87.6 

94.6 

98.7 

103.1 

108.9 

109.4 

106.3 

117.9 

128.4 

132.4 

126.2 

131.1 

3916 

39.0 

31.2 

40.5 

48.4 

52.4 

51.5 

46.1 

54.2 

61.0 

57.7 

52.6 

57.8 

57.5 

60.1 

64.1 

68.6 

77.0 

89.7 

99.2 

101.5 

107.7 

112.2 

102.0 

106.9 

125.1 

137.8 

143.0 

129.6 

Dec. 

37.2 

41.7 

42.3 

42.0 

43.3 

49.5 

47.3 

51.4 

49.5 

54.U 

59.8 

60.9 

60.2 

64.4 

68.9 

68.1 

74.9 

76.8 

81.8 

87.7 

93.5 

98.4 

103.3 

108.0 

112.8 

112.8 

120.9 

131.7 

135.2 

123.1 

136.9 

35.2 

42.9 

43.9 

43.0 

43.6 

52.1 

47.7 

53.3 

50.9 

55.5 

61.0 

61.6 

61.7 

65.8 

69.2 

69.2 

75.6 

78.2 

83.2 

89.4 

95.1 

98.5 

104.0 

108.3 

109.5 

110.5 

118.8 

130.4 

130.5 

121.0 

132.3 

39.3 

38.6 

31.3 

41.1 

49.0 

53.0 

50.7 

46.3 

55.1 

61.7 

55.9 

53.0 

58.7 

56.2 

60.3 

63.7 

68.5 

78.4 

91.6 

100.6 

102.4] 

108.1] 

112.2 

104.01 

108.2 

126.2 

138.6 

138.7 

131.6 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

39.3 

38.9 

41.5 

42.5 

41.7 

44.2 

49.6 

47.8 

51.4 

50.4 

55.1 

59.8 

61.3 

59.6 

66.2 

69.7 

68.. 8 

74.8 

78.0 

82.9 

89.2 

94.8 

98.3 

103.6 

110.0 

112.2 

113.5 

122.8 

132.0 

136.0 

1 118.1 

32.9 

37.7 

42.0 

43.6 

42.5 

45.8 

52.1 

48.4 

54.0 

51.5 

57.2 

60.9 

62.6 

60.5 

66.8 

70.9 

68.9 

75.6 

79.9 

83.7 

91.1 

96.0 

98.7 

103.9 

109.6 

108.6 

112.2 

120.6 

130.5 

128.2 

116.7 

36^9 

39.6 

37.3 

32.6 

42.2 

50.8 

53.7 

48.5 

47.2 

56.2 

63.4 

53.1 

54.8 

61.2 

56.2 

60.9 

63.9 

70.3 

79.5 

93.9 

100.2 

103.7 

110.2 

109.8 

102.4 

111.9 

129.5 

139.1 

128.2 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

39.4 

38.9 

40.7 

43.1 

41.0 

45.8 

49.0 

48.0 

51.9 

50.9 

57.0 

59.7 

60.9 

59.9 

67.5 

69.8 

70.6 

75.6 

79.8 

85.0 

90.0 

96.1 

98.6 

105.4 

111.1 

112.3 

115.3 

125.4 

' 133.6 

137.2 

121.7 

38.2 

39.7 

41.0 

42.8 

41.9 

48.2 

47.5 

49.6 

51.5 

51.6 

57.3 

60.0 

61.5 

62.4 

68.6 

69.1 

72.0 

76.2 

80.5 

85.9 

91.3 

97.5 

100.0 

107.0 

112.6 

112.4 

117.5 

127.2 

134.1 

137.0 

130.5 

AVERAGE FOR 

33.1 

38.5 

41.7 

43.8 

42.8 

48.9 

49.9 

49.1 

54.0 

52.1 

58.8 

60.8 

62.5 

60.4 

68.2 

71.3 

71.5 

76.9 

81.0 

85.9 

91.9 

97.0 

99.0 

105.1 

108.9 

110.0 

113.4 

122.9 

131.5 

130.4 

121.2 

32.8 

40.6 

42.1 

43.8 

44.0 

52.3 

46.9 

50.2 

53.1 

52.8 

59.1 

60.9 

63.2 

62.3 

68.9 

70.4 

72.8 

77.6 

81.7 

86.8 

92.7 

97.1 

99.4 

106.5 

110.9 

109.4 

115.5 

125.2 

131.5 

131.5 

127.7 

AVERAGE FOR 

37.9 

39.5 

35.4 

35.6 

44.3 

51.4 

53.7 

46.7 

50.1 

58.5 

61.7 

49.8 

58.5 

60.6 

56.8 

62.3 

64.5 

73.0 

82.5 

96.9 

100.2 

105.1 

112.3 

108.8 

102.0 

116.2 

133.0 

142.9 

126.1 

38.1 

39.9 

33.8 

39.3 

45.9 

50.2 

53.9 

45.8 

51.2 

59.1 

61.5 

50.5 

59.7 

58.7 

57.9 

63.6 

66.5 

74.7 

85.7 

100.1 

98.7 

105.4 

114.1 

106.9 

104.6 

118.9 

135.7 

145.4 

128.8 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

37.3 

41.3 

42.2 

42.3 

43.2 

48.8 

47.0 

51.1 

50.1 

53.2 

59.2 

60.6 

60.5 

64.1 

68.3 

68.5 

74.3 

76.5 

81.6 

87.0 

92.9 

98.1 

102.7 

108.4 

112.5 

112.4 

120.2 

130.2 

135.1 

128.5 

135.6 

PERIOD 

34.6 

42.6 

43.6 

43.5 

44.1 

51.7 

47.2 

52.9 

51.7 

54.4 

60.7 

61.4 

62.0 

64.6 

68.2 

70.0 

75.1 

77.8 

82.8 

87.1 

94.6 

98.8 

102.9 

108.3 

109.8 

107.9 

117.9 

128.8 

132.0 

125.6 

130.7 

PERIOD 

39^1 

38.9 

31.6 

40.6 

48.3 

52.4 

51.9 

45.9 

54.4 

60.9 

57.6 

52.4 

58.4 

57.1 

59.6 

64.0 

68.4 

76.6 

89.8 

100.2 

100.8 

107.8 

113.1 

102.7 

107.3 

124.8 

138.0 

142.0 

130.0 

Annual 

38.5 

39.7 

41.3 

42.7 

42.0 

46.7 

48.3 

49.2 

51.2 

51.6 

57.2 

60.1 

61.1 

61.6 

67.7 

69.3 

71.5 

75.8 

80.0 

85.2 

90.9 

96.7 

100.0 

106.2 

111.5 

112.3 

116.6 

12b.5 

133.8 

134.6 

126.4 

33.4 

39.9 

1 42.4 

43.7 

i 43.4 

49.6 

49.1 

50.2 

53.2 

52.9 

59.0 

61.2 

62.6 

62.1 

68.1 

70.7 

72.2 

77.1 

81.3 

85.9 

92.6 

97.3 

100.0 

105.9 

109.8 

109.0 

114.7 

124.4 

131.5 

128.9 

124.0 

38.0 

39.5 

34.5 

1 37.0 

45.2 

51.2 

I 53.3 

46.8 

50.8 

58.8 

61.1 

51.5 

57.9 

59.4 

57.7 

62.7 

65.8 

73.7 

84.4 

97.7 

100.0 

105.5 

112.5 

107.0 

104.1 

118.0 

134.2 

142.4 

128.2 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

19.56.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 

7 7 . RATIO, INVENTORIES TO SALES, MANUFACTURING AND TRADE, TOTAL 

l!4 9 

1.5 6 

1.5 3 

1.4 4 

1.6 9 

1.6 0 

1.7 0 

1.5 2 

1.5 0 

1.5 5 

1.6 4 

1.5 4 

1.5 2 

1.6 4 

1.5 3 

1.5 6 

1.5 2 

1.5 0 

1.4 7 

1.6 0 

1.6 0 

1.6 1 

1.7 0 

1.7 4 

1.6 6 

1.5 5 

1.6 2 

1.8 9 

1.5 0 

1.5 7 

1.4 9 

1.4 9 

1.6 7 

1.5 8 

1.6 7 

1.5 1 

1.5 3 

1.5 4 

1.6 6 

1.5 2 

1.5 4 

1.6 3 

1.5 4 

1.5 4 

1.5 2 

1.5 0 

1.4 8 

1.6 2 

1.6 0 

1.6 2 

1.7 0 

1.7 3 

1.6 6 

1.5 5 

1.6 4 

1.8 6 

1.5 0 

1.5 7 

1.4 8 

1.5 4 

1.6 9 

1.5 7 

1.6 7 

1.4 9 

1.5 3 

1.5 5 

1.6 8 

1.5 1 

1.5 6 

1.6 0 

1.5 3 

1.5 4 

1.5 3 

1.4 8 

1.4 7 

1.6 2 

1.5 9 

1.6 2 

1.7 2 

1.7 2 

1.6 4 

1.5 6 

1.6 4 

1.8 9 

7 8 . STOCKS OF MATERIALS A! 

5l!5 9 

42.3 8 

37.2 1 

46.2 4 

50.3 5 

40.1 7 

40.0 0 

43.7 5 

38.1 3 

41.7 2 

41.2 5 

43.9 6 

50.9 1 

57.6 8 

67.1 4 

72.3 1 

74.1 3 

76.8 5 

76.3 2 

75.5 0 

87.4 7 

116.9 5 

139.2 2 

0.2 7 

-0.2 7 

0.2 7 

0.4 3 

0.3 3 

-0.0 8 

0.1 6 

0.5 3 

0.2 2 

0 . 0 

-0.2 9 

0.7 8 

-0.0 7 

0.1 4 

0.1 3 

0.4 0 

0.2 6 

0.3 1 

0.7 6 

-0.0 6 

0.4 8 

0.4 9 

0.7 7 

0.4 6 

0.6 8 

0.7 8 

0.3 7 

-0.3 5 

5K7 6 

41.3 2 

37.7 7 

46.6 5 

50.2 7 

39.3 3 

41.1 3 

42.9 4 

37.7 1 

41.8 5 

41.5 3 

44.0 0 

51.5 4 

58.7 8 

67.2 5 

72.7 0 

74.2 0 

76.3 6 

76.4 8 

76.1 3 

89.6 1 

120.0 7 

137.5 2 

51.8 6 

39.8 4 

38.9 0 

46.8 3 

49.8 3 

38.9 1 

42.1 6 

41.9 7 

37.6 5 

41.7 2 

42.0 9 

44.2 9 

52.1 3 

60.2 6 

67.0 1 

72.6 5 

74.8 3 

76.2 0 

76.5 3 

76.6 0 

92.5 3 

122.4 9 

134.6 4 

8 5 . CHANGE IN 

o!l 8 

-0.1 8 

0 . 0 

0.5 4 

0.3 4 

0.4 1 

0.0 8 

0.0 8 

0.6 8 

0 . 0 

-0.0 7 

0.5 2 

0.2 1 

-0.2 8 

0.3 5 

0.1 3 

0.2 0 

0.2 5 

0.1 2 

0.4 1 

0.9 7 

0.5 3 

0.4 9 

-0.3 3 

0.8 6 

0.8 1 

0.1 9 

0.5 2 

0 . 0 

0.5 5 

-0.5 3 

0 . 0 

0.3 6 

0.4 3 

0.1 6 

0.4 7 

0.0 8 

-0.2 2 

0.1 5 

0.0 7 

0.2 2 

0.4 2 

-0.0 7 

0.2 1 

0.2 7 

0.2 6 

0.3 2 

0.3 0 

0.4 6 

0.7 3 

0.3 7 

0.2 9 

0.6 2 

0.7 2 

1.0 1 

-0.0 8 

0.4 4 

0.7 1 

1.5 0 

1.5 7 

1.4 7 

1.5 9 

1.6 7 

1.5 9 

1.6 5 

1.4 7 

1.5 4 

1.5 8 

1.6 8 

1.5 1 

1.5 6 

1.6 1 

1.5 3 

1.5 3 

1.5 1 

1.4 9 

1.4 9 

1.6 2 

1.6 1 

1.6 2 

1.7 4 

1.7 1 

1.6 3 

1.5 6 

1.6 4 

1.8 5 

(RATIO) 

K 5 2 

1.5 9 

1.4 5 

1.6 0 

1.6 4 

1.6 0 

) .6 7 

1.4 8 

1.5 5 

1.5 8 

1.6 6 

1.4 9 

1.5 9 

1.5 9 

1.5 4 

1.5 4 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 1 

1.6 2 

1.6 0 

1.6 4 

1.7 2 

1.7 0 

1.6 3 

1.5 7 

1.6 6 

1.8 2 

1.5 2 

1.5 5 

1.4 1 

1.6 3 

1.6 5 

1.6 3 

1.6 4 

1.4 9 

1.5 5 

1.5 7 

1.6 3 

1.5 0 

1.5 9 

1.5 6 

1.5 5 

1.5 3 

1.5 1 

1.5 0 

1.5 1 

1.6 2 

1.6 0 

1.6 4 

1.7 2 

1.7 0 

1.6 3 

1.5 9 

1.6 8 

1.7 " 

1.5 3 

1.6 0 

1.2 9 

1.6 8 

1.6 8 

1.6 2 

1.6 4 

1.4 9 

1.6 3 

1.5 8 

1.6 2 

1.5 2 

1.6 0 

1.5 8 

1.5 5 

1.5 1 

1.4 9 

1.4 9 

1.5 4 

1.6 3 

1.5 9 

1.6 5 

1.7 2 

1.7 1 

1.6 3 

1.5 7 

1.6 8 

1.7 7 

*D SUPPLIES N HAND AND ON ORDER, 

(BILLIONS 

51.7 8 

38.7 9 

39.2 8 

47.8 0 

49.2 2 

38.5 7 

42.8 8 

41.2 2 

37.8 9 

41.2 1 

42.9 4 

44.6 1 

52.3 6 

61.2 9 

67.3 3 

72.7 5 

75.6 5 

76.0 1 

76.2 0 

76.8 5 

94.4 2 

125.1 0 

131.2 3 

... 

52.16 

37.8 6 

39.7 6 

48.0 6 

48.9 7 

38.2 7 

43.0 4 

40.6 4 

38.1 8 

41.1 3 

43.4 4 

45.0 6 

52.9 3 

62.3 4 

67.4 6 

72.8 1 

76.5 1 

76.0 3 

75.6 4 

77.8 7 

97.4 6 

129.7 5 

129.8 3 

MONEY SUPPLY Ml 

OF DOLLARS) 

51.8 8 

37.1 9 

40.2 8 

47.8 4 

48.4 7 

38.5 1 

43.6 2 

40.2 0 

38.2 8 

40.9 2 

43.2 1 

45.5 2 

53.3 1 

63.6 3 

68.0 0 

72.3 2 

76.7 9 

76.0 6 

74.5 6 

78.5 8 

99.8 4 

133.3 9 

128.0 2 

50.9 3 

36.4 3 

41.0 9 

48.9 7 

47.5 5 

38.6 8 

43.6 2 

39.7 2 

38.6 6 

40.7 8 

43.2 8 

46.1 4 

53.7 1 

64.6 6 

68.7 9 

71.7 5 

77.2 8 

75.5 7 

74.2 7 

79.6 1 

101.6 4 

136.6 5 

127.4 3 

(DEMAND DEPOSITS 

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT) 

o!7 3 

-0.2 7 

0.0 9 

0.6 2 

0.1 7 

0.2 4 

0.2 3 

-0.4 6 

0.2 2 

0.2 2 

0 . 0 

0.3 7 

0.1 4 

0.1 4 

0.2 8 

0.2 0 

0.3 3 

0.1 3 

0.2 4 

0.7 5 

-0.3 9 

0.5 3 

0.3 4 

0.7 1 

0.8 0 

0.7 1 

0.5 4 

0.4 7 

0.2 5 

0.5 4 

-0.1 8 

0.1 8 

0.4 4 

0.3 4 

0.3 2 

0.1 6 

. 0.8 6 

0.5 2 

-0.1 5 

0.0 7 

0.3 6 

0.4 2 

-0.2 8 

0.3 4 

0 . 0 

0.3 9 

0.6 3 

0.1 8 

0 . 0 

1.1 2 

1.0 5 

0.3 4 

0.3 8 

1.0 6 

0.3 3 

1.1 2 

0.2 9 

0.9 8 

0.3 6 

-0.0 9 

-0.1 8 

0.3 5 

0.3 4 

0.4 0 

0 . 0 

0.1 5 

-0.1 5 

0.1 5 

-0.0 7 

0.6 5 

0.2 1 

0.0 7 

0.2 1 

0.0 7 

0.4 6 

0.3 1 

0.5 4 

0.1 1 

0.8 3 

0.8 3 

0.2 9 

0.1 4 

0.6 6 

0.4 5 

0.8 4 

0.5 1 

1.1 1 

0.0 9 

0.1 8 

-0.0 9 

0.4 4 

0.4 2 

0.2 4 

0.0 8 

0.3 1 

0.3 0 

0 . 0 

0.0 7 

0 . 0 

0.4 9 

0.4 9 

0.0 7 

-0.1 3 

0.3 9 

0.6 9 

0.3 6 

-0.3 4 

0.7 7 

0.5 1 

0.1 9 

0.2 8 

0.4 8 

0.8 6 

0.3 4 

0.4 3 

0.3 4 

1.5 3 

1.5 7 

1.3 0 

1.6 6 

1.6 5 

1.6 5 

1.6 4 

1.5 1 

1.5 8 

1.5 8 

1.5 8 

1.5 6 

1.6 1 

1.5 5 

1.5 5 

1.5 4 

1.5 1 

1.5 0 

1.5 4 

1.6 2 

1.6 3 

1.6 5 

1.7 3 

1.7 0 

1.6 1 

1.6 0 

1.6 8 

1.7 5 

Sept. Oct. Nov. 

, IN 197 2 DOLLARS 

K 5 3 

1.5 5 

1.4 1 

1.6 7 

1.6 2 

1.6 6 

1.6 3 

1.4 8 

1.5 8 

1.6 1 

1.5 8 

1.5 5 

1.5 9 

1.5 5 

1.5 6 

1.5 4 

1.5 0 

1.5 2 

1.5 4 

1.6 2 

1.6 1 

1.6 4 

1.7 4 

1.6 9 

1.6 1 

1.6 0 

1.7 1 

1.7 4 

1.5 3 

1.5 9 

1.4 5 

1.6 7 

1.5 8 

1.6 6 

1.6 2 

1.4 9 

1.5 6 

1.6 0 

1.5 6 

1.5 6 

1.6 0 

1.5 3 

1.5 5 

1.5 3 

1.5 2 

1.4 9 

1.5 5 

1.6 4 

1.6 0 

1.6 4 

1.7 7 

1.7 0 

1.5 9 

1.5 8 

1.7 5 

1.7 4 

1.5 4 

1.5 6 

1.5 2 

1.6 8 

1.6 0 

1.6 9 

1.5 8 

1.4 8 

1.5 6 

1.6 2 

1.5 4 

1.5 6 

1.6 2 

1.5 3 

1.5 3 

1.5 5 

1.5 1 

1.4 8 

1.5 7 

1.6 1 

1.6 0 

1.6 7 

1.8 0 

1.6 7 

1.5 7 

1.5 8 

1.8 1 

1.7 5 

Dec. 

K 5 2 

1.5 5 

1.4 5 

1.7 1 

1.5 7 

1.7 1 

1.5 4 

1.4 9 

1.5 5 

1.6 6 

1.5 9 

1.5 3 

1.6 1 

1.5 2 

1.5 6 

1.5 2 

1.4 9 

1.4 8 

1.5 9 

1.5 9 

1.6 2 

1.6 8 

1.7 4 

1.6 7 

1.5 7 

1.6 2 

1.8 8 

1.7 1 

MANUFACTURING, IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

49.6 9 

35.7 4 

41.7 4 

50.0 1 

46.5 7 

38.7 5 

43.6 5 

39.8 5 

39.4 5 

40.6 6 

43.2 3 

46.6 6 

53.9 8 

65.9 2 

69.5 6 

72.1 1 

77.3 3 

75.3 0 

74.2 5 

80.9 9 

103.8 2 

139.6 5 

126.5 1 

47!8 5 

35.8 8 

42.5 9 

50.0 5 

45.9 9 

38.8 6 

44.1 5 

39.8 6 

39.4 3 

40.8 1 

43.5 4 

47.7 2 

54.6 8 

66.2 0 

70.0 5 

72.3 4 

77.8 4 

75.1 1 

74.0 4 

82.1 6 

106.1 5 

141.4 9 

125.7 6 

PLUS CURRENCY) 

o!3 6 

0.0 9 

-0.1 8 

0.3 5 

0.4 2 

0.3 2 

0.0 8 

0.3 1 

0 . 0 

-0.2 2 

0.0 7 

0.5 1 

-0.2 8 

0.4 2 

0.2 0 

-0.1 3 

0.0 6 

0.5 0 

0.1 8 

-0.0 6 

0.5 5 

0.5 6 

-0.0 5 

0.7 5 

0.4 3 

0.8 1 

0.2 3 

0.1 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 6 

-0.0 9 

-0.0 9 

0.1 7 

0.6 7 

0.5 6 

-0.0 8 

0.1 5 

0.1 5 

0.3 7 

-0.2 2 

0.2 9 

-0.2 1 

0.2 1 

0.3 4 

-0.0 7 

0.2 6 

0.5 6 

0.7 2 

0.5 7 

0.6 5 

0.6 6 

0.2 9 

0.7 9 

0.2 6 

0.8 1 

-0.1 1 

0.2 1 

0.2 7 

46^1 2 

36.4 4 

43.6 6 

50.2 9 

45.0 6 

38.9 1 

44.3 8 

39.1 6 

39.4 1 

40.7 4 

43.8 5 

48.8 6 

55.4 8 

66.5 1 

70.3 4 

72.8 1 

78.4 2 

74.8 6 

74.3 5 

82.9 6 

108.8 2 

141.1 2 

125.8 8 

-o!o 9 

-0.0 9 

0 . 0 

0.4 3 

0.5 0 

0.2 4 

0.0 8 

0.4 6 

0.1 5 

0.0 7 

-0.2 2 

0.4 3 

-0.2 8 

0 . 0 

0.3 4 

0.3 3 

0.4 5 

0.3 7 

0.7 1 

-0.3 4 

0.4 9 

0.5 6 

0.1 9 

0.1 4 

0.0 9 

0.6 4 

0.4 9 

0.4 6 

-0.1 0 

45!o 4 

36.2 7 

44.3 7 

50.5 1 

44.1 4 

39.4 0 

44.5 9 

38.8 8 

39.7 0 

40.7 0 

43.7 6 

49.6 5 

56.0 1 

66.6 1 

70.8 5 

73.2 6 

77.9 9 

75.2 4 

74.5 7 

84.2 2 

111.1 0 

141.2 2 

126.1 2 

o!3 5 

-0.2 7 

0.0 9 

0.1 7 

0.8 3 

0.3 2 

0 . 0 

0.4 6 

-0.2 2 

0.2 2 

-0.1 5 

0.5 7 

-0.0 7 

-0.0 7 

0.4 1 

0.4 0 

0.7 1 

0.4 3 

0.3 5 

0.0 6 

0.3 8 

0.9 0 

0.2 9 

0.3 7 

0.2 6 

0.6 0 

0.8 6 

0.4 6 

0.7 5 

43.7 9 

36.3 5 

45.5 7 

50.8 5 

42.9 7 

39.6 0 

44.7 4 

38.2 7 

40.8 7 

40.7 3 

43.7 6 

50.2 9 

56.9 7 

66.5 6 

71.6 5 

73.8 2 

77.7 9 

75.6 0 

75.0 8 

85.3 1 

113.9 9 

141.0 6 

125.6 6 

-0.1 8 

-0.2 7 

0.1 8 

0.2 6 

0.5 7 

0.2 4 

0.0 8 

0.1 5 

0.2 2 

0.2 2 

-0.2 9 

0.1 4 

-0.2 1 

0 . 0 

0.2 0 

0.2 7 

-0.2 5 

0.0 6 

0.5 3 

0.1 7 

0.3 8 

0.7 0 

0.0 5 

0.4 6 

0.2 1 

1.1 1 

0.5 9 

0.2 1 

-0.2 7 

Quarterly 

| 1 Q 

l.*49 

1.5 7 

1.5 0 

1.4 9 

1.6 8 

1.5 9 

1.6 8 

1.5 1 

1.5 2 

1.5 4 

1.6 6 

1.5 2 

1.5 4 

1.6 2 

1.5 3 

1.5 5 

1.5 2 

1.4 9 

1.4 7 

1.6 1 

1.6 0 

1.6 2 

1.7 1 

1.7 3 

1.6 5 

1.5 5 

1.6 3 

1.8 8 

5l!8 6 

39.8 4 

38.9 0 

46.8 3 

49.8 3 

38.9 1 

42.1 6 

41.9 7 

37.6 5 

41.7 2 

42.0 9 

44.2 9 

52.1 3 

60.2 6 

67.0 1 

72.6 5 

74.8 3 

76.2 0 

76.5 3 

76.6 0 

92.5 3 

122.4 9 

134.6 4 

-o!l 5 

-0.0 9 

0.3 9 

0.4 0 

0.3 0 

0.1 6 

0.1 0 

0.3 3 

0.1 2 

0 . 0 

0.1 5 

0.4 7 

-0.1 4 

0.2 3 

0.1 8 

0.2 9 

0.2 8 

0.2 4 

0.5 4 

0.5 5 

0.4 6 

0.4 3 

! 0.3 5 

0.6 8 

0.8 3 

0.3 0 

0.4 4 

0.1 2 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

lisi 

1.5 7 

1.4 4 

1.6 1 

1.6 5 

1.6 0 

1.6 6 

1.4 8 

1.5 5 

1.5 8 

1.6 6 

1.5 0 

1.5 8 

1.5 9 

1.5 4 

1.5 3 

1.5 1 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.6 2 

1.6 0 

1.6 3 

1.7 3 

1.7 0 

1.6 3 

1.5 8 

1.6 6 

1.8 2 

1.5 3 

1.5 7 

1.3 3 

1.6 7 

1.6 5 

1.6 4 

1.6 4 

1.4 9 

1.5 9 

1.5 9 

1.5 9 

1.5 4 

1.6 0 

1.5 6 

1.5 5 

1.5 3 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 4 

1.6 2 

1.6 1 

1.6 5 

1.7 3 

1.7 0 

1.6 1 

1.5 9 

1.6 9 

1.7 5 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

K 5 3 

1.5 7 

1.4 8 

1.6 9 

1.5 8 

1.6 9 

1.5 8 

1.4 9 

1.5 6 

1.6 2 

1.5 6 

1.5 5 

1.6 1 

1.5 3 

1.5 5 

1.5 3 

1.5 1 

1.4 8 

1.5 7 

1.6 1 

1.6 1 

1.6 6 

1.7 7 

1.6 8 

1.5 7 

1.5 9 

1.8 1 

1.7 3 

END OF PERIOD 

5K8 8 

37.1 9 

40.2 8 

47.8 4 

48.4 7 

38.5 1 

43.6 2 

40.2 0 

38.2 8 

40.9 2 

43.2 1 

45.5 2 

53.3 1 

63.6 3 

68.0 0 

72.3 2 

76.7 9 

76.0 6 

74.5 6 

78.5 8 

99.8 4 

133.3 9 

128.0 2 

47.8 5 

35.8 8 

42.5 9 

50.0 5 

45.9 9 

38.8 6 

44.1 5 

39.8 6 

39.4 3 

40.8 1 

43.5 4 

47.7 2 

54.6 8 

66.2 0 

70.0 5 

72.3 4 

77.8 4 

75.1 1 

74.0 4 

82.1 6 

106.1 5 

141.4 9 

125.7 6 

AVERAGE FOR 

0.5 4 

-0.1 8 

0.0 3 

0.4 7 

0.2 8 

0.3 2 

0.1 3 

0.1 8 

0.2 0 

0.0 7 

0 . 0 

0.4 6 

0.2 6 

-0.0 2 

0.2 7 

0.0 9 

0.3 9 

0.3 6 

0.3 2 

0.2 9 

0.5 2 

0.8 0 

0.3 2 

0.4 1 

0.8 4 

0.5 0 

0.8 3 

0.4 2 

0.7 8 

0.2 7 

0.0 6 

-0.1 2 

0.3 2 

0.5 0 

0.3 7 

0.0 3 

0.2 6 

0.1 5 

0.0 5 

-0.0 2 

0.2 6 

0 . 0 

0.3 7 

0.2 0 

-0.1 1 

0.2 4 

0.5 8 

0.4 2 

0.0 6 

0.6 6 

0.5 8 

0.1 4 

0.6 1 

0.3 9 

0.8 3 

0.1 5 

0.2 7 

0.3 3 

43." 79 

36.3 5 

45.5 7 

50.8 5 

42.9 7 

39.6 0 

44.7 4 

38.2 7 

40.8 7 

40.7 3 

43.7 6 

50.2 9 

56.9 7 

66.5 6 

71.6 5 

73.8 2 

77.7 9 

75.6 0 

75.0 8 

85.3 1 

113.9 9 

141.0 6 

125.6 6 

PERIOD 

o!63 

-0.2 1 

0.0 9 

0.2 9 

0.6 3 

0.2 6 

0.0 5 

0.3 6 

0.0 5 

0.1 7 

-0.2 2 

0.3 8 

-0.1 9 

-0.0 2 

0.3 2 

0.3 3 

0.3 0 

0.2 9 

0.5 3 

-0.0 4 

0.4 1 

0.7 2 

0.1 8 

0.3 2 

0.1 9 

0.7 8 

0.6 5 

0.3 8 

0.1 3 

Annual 

K 5 2 

1.5 7 

1 1.4 4 

1.6 1 

1.6 4 

1.6 3 

1.6 4 

1.4 9 

[ 1.5 5 

1.5 8 

1.6 2 

! 1.5 3 

1.5 8 

1.5 8 

1.5 4 

1.5 3 

I 1.5 1 

1.4 9 

1.5 2 

1.6 2 

1.6 0 

1.6 4 

1.7 3 

1.7 0 

1.6 2 

1.5 8 

1.7 0 

1.8 0 

43.'7 9 

1 36.3 5 

45.5 7 

50.8 5 

42.9 7 

39.6 0 

44.7 4 

38.2 7 

40.8 7 

40.7 3 

43.7 6 

50.2 9 

56.9 7 

66.5 6 

71.6 5 

73.8 2 

77.7 9 

75.6 0 

75.0 8 

85.3 1 

113.9 9 

141.0 6 

125.6 6 

-o!l 2 

-0.0 2 

0.3 7 

0.4 5 

0.3 1 

0.0 9 

0.2 2 

0.1 8 

1 0.1 0 

-0.0 6 

0.3 1 

0.1 4 

0.0 5 

0.2 6 

0.1 2 

0.3 0 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.2 1 

0.5 4 

0.6 4 

0.2 7 

0.4 2 

0.5 2 

0.7 4 

0.4 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 4 

The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

9(j 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947 . . . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951 . . . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

195b. . . 

1957.. . 

195b.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

196b.. . 

1969 . . . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972 . . . 

1973.. . 

1974 . . . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

194b.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957 . . . 

195b . . . 

1959. . . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964 . . . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

196b.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

9 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. , 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1905.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

I9b9.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

197b.. . 

Jan. 

. RATIO, 

55.9 1 

55.4 1 

54.3 6 

55.6 9 

55.8 9 

56.1 5 

53.9 7 

54.1 2 

56.2 7 

55.6 0 

54.6 0 

54.5 1 

54.8 6 

54.5 0 

54.1 2 

54.0 1 

54.1 1 

54.5 3 

55.4 2 

55.6 9 

55.5 1 

56.1 4 

56.7 0 

55.6 3 

55.7 2 

56.1 6 

57.3 2 

55.6 2 

8." 9 

8 . 2 

11. 3 

10. 6 

9 . 3 

9 . 3 

8 . 7 

13. 4 

11. 7 

10. 4 

10. 5 

16. 3 

13. 5 

13. 7 

15. 3 

13. 8 

13. 5 

12. 2 

11. 9 

9 . 3 

9 . 4 

8 . 1 

7 . 9 

10. 5 

12. 2 

11. 0 

9 . 6 

10. 8 

Feb. Mar. 

CIVILIAN EMPLOYN 

56.0 0 

55.4 0 

54.4 3 

55.6 8 

55.8 5 

56.2 6 

54.5 1 

54.0 7 

56.0 2 

56.1 0 

54.2 8 

54.2 9 

55.0 4 

54.3 0 

54.4 3 

53.9 0 

54.3 7 

54.5 7 

55.3 0 

55.5 7 

55.8 3 

56.4 7 

56.5 0 

55.3 9 

55.6 9 

56.5 7 

57.3 6 

55.2 7 

k'.A 

8 . 3 

11. 8 

10. 8 

8 . 8 

8 . 4 

9 . 5 

14. 2 

12. 5 

10. 7 

11. 0 

15. 5 

13. 1 

13. 6 

16. 0 

14. 1 

13. 2 

12. 6 

11. 2 

9 . 2 

8 . 7 

7 . 9 

8 . 0 

10. 4 

12. 4 

10. 5 

9 . 6 

11. 7 

55.4 5 

55.2 0 

54.3 6 

56.3 1 

55.2 9 

56.2 2 

54.0 3 

54.2 2 

55.8 8 

56.1 8 

54.0 9 

54.7 3 

54.1 9 

54. 4 7 

54.3 4 

54.0 7 

54.3 1 

54.7 4 

55.2 7 

55.3 7 

55.8 8 

56.4 1 

56.5 0 

55.2 2 

55.9 8 

56.8 9 

57.3 7 

55.1 9 

91 

s'.i 

8 . 3 

12. 4 

10. 1 

8 . 4 

8 . 5 

10. 6 

13. 4 

11. 6 

10. 8 

11. 2 

15. 3 

13. 0 

14. 1 

15. 0 

14. 5 

13. 5 

12. 0 

11. 1 

8 . 9 

8 . 5 

7 . 9 

8 . 3 

10. 6 

12. 3 

10. 6 

9 . 6 

11. 5 

2 . CHANGE IN SENSITIVE PR 

l'.'ui 

-0.7 6 

0 . 0 

1.6 1 

-0.7 3 

-0.6 5 

-1.2 5 

2.3 6 

1.1 7 

-1.0 4 

-0.8 4 

0.3 0 

-0.1 0 

-0.3 2 

0.7 2 

-0.6 3 

0 . 0 

-1.9 8 

1.0 7 

-0.4 9 

-0.2 9 

0.4 8 

0.6 9 

0.2 5 

0.4 0 

1.0 8 

4.0 5 

-1.0 3 

2.9 5 

0.6 8 

-2.5 1 

1.6 9 

0.1 9 

-0.4 2 

1.6 3 

-0.8 1 

2.0 9 

-1.7 3 

-1.3 4 

1.0 5 

1.4 1 

-1.6 5 

0.6 3 

-0.3 1 

0.1 1 

-0.3 2 

0 . 0 

1.2 5 

-0.7 9 

0.3 0 

0.1 0 

1.4 6 

0 . 0 

0.1 6 

0.9 3 

5.8 9 

-0.8 6 

4.9 2 

-0.4 5 

-1.3 4 

1.4 3 

0 . 0 

0.2 1 

0.2 1 

-0.4 6 

0.5 4 

0.9 8 

-0.6 8 

-0.5 2 

0.7 9 

-1.8 8 

1.1 6 

-1.1 2 

0 . 0 

0.3 2 

0.3 0 

0.7 6 

-0.8 0 

0.7 9 

1.5 3 

0.1 7 

-0.3 3 

1.5 8 

0.2 1 

4.7 6 

-1.0 0 

Apr. May 

Mon 

June 

thly 

July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 

ENT TO TOTAL POPULATION OF WORKING AGE, LABOR FORCE SURVEY 

56.0 1 

54.8 8 

55.1 2 

55.8 0 

55.2 6 

55.6 8 

54.0 0 

54.6 7 

56.0 3 

55.8 1 

53.9 6 

55.0 9 

55.2 3 

54.0 2 

54.1 4 

54.2 3 

54.7 1 

54.8 2 

55.4 6 

55.6 4 

55.9 5 

56.4 5 

56.4 8 

55.4 3 

55.9 3 

56.8 3 

57.1 5 

55.1 2 

AVERAGE 

8." 5 

8 . 8 

12. 6 

10. 6 

9 . 0 

7 . 8 

10. 9 

14. 3 

11. 0 

10. 6 

12. 1 

14. 9 

12. 6 

15. 5 

14. 9 

14. 5 

12. 4 

11. 4 

10. 8 

8 . 8 

8 . 7 

7 . 9 

8 . 3 

10. 9 

12. 4 

10. 0 

9 . 8 

12. 9 

(PERCENT) 

55.5 4 

54.6 5 

55.1 6 

56.0 3 

55.4 7 

55.2 5 

53.7 1 

54.7 3 

56.1 8 

55.7 1 

54.1 2 

54.9 7 

55.2 6 

54.0 2 

54.3 3 

54.1 4 

54.8 5 

55.0 7 

55.3 7 

55.5 3 

56.2 7 

56.2 8 

56.1 5 

55.4 5 

56.0 2 

56.8 1 

57.2 1 

55.1 9 

(MEAN) 

56.3 5 

54.2 4 

55.4 9 

55.4 6 

55.4 4 

55.6 0 

53.5 7 

54.8 3 

56.1 1 

55.8 3 

53.9 5 

55.0 4 

55.2 9 

54.4 2 

54.2 9 

54.0 8 

54.4 5 

54.9 3 

55.5 2 

55.7 8 

56.2 5 

56.5 4 

56.0 0 

55.1 6 

56.0 7 

57.0 7 

57.1 6 

55.1 3 

DURATION 

(WEEKS) 

9.*1 

9 . 1 

12. 7 

9 . 9 

7 . 8 

7 . 9 

11. 6 

14. 4 

10. 4 

10. 4 

13. 1 

14. 7 

11. 9 

15. 6 

15. 5 

14. 5 

13. 6 

11. 1 

10. 2 

8 . 7 

8 . 2 

7 . 9 

8 . 6 

11. 2 

12. 3 

10. 1 

9 . 6 

13. 5 

8 . 8 

10. 0 

13. 1 

8 . 7 

7 . 3 

8 . 2 

12. 3 

13. 4 

10. 1 

10. 2 

14. 4 

14. 9 

11. 9 

16. 2 

15. 1 

14. 0 

13. 6 

11. 6 

9 . 7 

8 . 3 

7 . 9 

7 . 7 

8 . 7 

11. 6 

12. 4 

9 . 6 

9 . 7 

15. 3 

ICES (WPI OF CRUDE MATERI 

MONTHLY DATA (PER 

l.*82 

3.3 7 

-4.5 3 

1.7 6 

0.0 9 

-0.6 3 

-0.5 3 

1.5 2 

0.7 5 

1.0 7 

-1.7 6 

-0.8 4 

0.2 9 

0.3 0 

0.7 3 

-0.9 3 

-0.2 1 

i 1.4 8 

0.7 1 

-0.2 8 

-1.3 1 

-1.6 6 

1.2 2 

0.5 1 

1.4 9 

-0.3 9 

2.2 6 

5.0 2 

0.9 6 

-3.7 1 

1.4 1 

-3.0 8 

3.0 0 

-0.2 8 

0.2 1 

-0.4 3 

2.6 4 

-0.5 3 

-1.4 4 

1.5 9 

0.5 3 

0 . 0 

0.2 0 

0.3 1 

-0.3 1 

0 . 0 

-0.4 2 

1.2 0 

0.1 9 

0.6 1 

-0.7 9 

1.0 2 

0.1 7 

-0.0 8 

0.7 0 

2.2 8 

-3.4 3 

1.6 8 

0 . 0 

-0.2 1 

-0.9 8 

4.0 3 

-1.7 8 

-2.6 4 

1.6 1 

-0.5 6 

0.1 1 

-4.1 9 

2.0 6 

0.5 3 

0.3 9 

-1.2 0 

0.1 0 

-0.8 4 

-0.1 1 

0.4 2 

-0.4 0 

0.6 6 

0.6 1 

0.7 0 

1.1 0 

0.4 2 

-0.1 6 

0.3 9 

2.5 0 

0.7 9 

0.4 5 

56.4 2 

54.2 1 

55.4 0 

55.9 1 

55.1 6 

55.5 0 

53.4 1 

55.4 4 

56.0 4 

56.0 5 

53.9 2 

55.1 1 

55.2 2 

54.0 4 

54.0 6 

54.2 1 

54.5 1 

55.2 8 

55.5 2 

55.8 8 

56.1 0 

56.5 2 

56.1 1 

55.4 4 

56.0 5 

57.0 0 

57.1 2 

55.2 5 

55.9 0 

54.3 6 

56.0 8 

55.7 1 

54.9 5 

55.2 3 

53.5 5 

55.6 5 

56.1 5 

55.4 9 

54.1 0 

54.9 1 

54.9 5 

54.1 8 

54.3 7 

54.1 5 

54.4 9 

55.1 3 

55.6 6 

55.9 4 

55.9 8 

56.6 5 

55.9 5 

55.5 0 

56.1 9 

56.8 5 

56.9 4 

55.3 3 

OF UNEMPLOYMENT 

8 ! 6 

10. 8 

12. 5 

9 . 2 

7 . 5 

7 . 9 

12. 5 

13. 8 

10. 5 

10. 1 

14. 6 

14. 3 

12. 6 

17. 3 

14. 6 

14. 0 

14. 7 

11. 6 

9 . 7 

8 . 3 

8 . 4 

7 . 8 

8 . 9 

11. 5 

11. 8 

9 . 6 

9 . 8 

14. 9 

8 . 8 

11. 0 

12. 2 

9 . 1 

7 . 6 

3 . 0 

12. 8 

12. 3 

12. 0 

10. 5 

15. 7 

13. 7 

12. 2 

17. 0 

14. 5 

13. 9 

13. 0 

11. 9 

9 . 8 

8 . 9 

8 . 3 

7 . 9 

8 . 8 

11. 5 

11. 8 

9 . 8 

9 . 8 

15. 4 

55.9 1 

54.4 9 

55.8 2 

55.3 9 

55.5 7 

54.9 5 

53.8 9 

55.7 3 

56.1 8 

55.5 8 

54.1 8 

54.8 0 

55.2 0 

53.8 7 

54.4 6 

54.2 9 

54.5 0 

54.9 9 

55.6 7 

55.9 2 

55.9 9 

56:5 7 

55.7 7 

55.4 8 

56.1 0 

57.0 3 

56.9 1 

55.2 5 

8." 5 

11. 7 

12. 2 

9 . 1 

8 . 1 

7 . 1 

12. 9 

11. 7 

11. 8 

9 . 8 

16. 5 

13. 7 

12. 9 

16. 1 

14. 1 

14. 2 

12. 7 

11. 9 

10. 1 

8 . 4 

8 . 2 

8 . 0 

8 . 9 

11. 9 

12. 1 

9 . 4 

9 . 6 

16. 1 

ALS EXCLUDING FOODS, FEED 

CENT) 

61 il 

2.9 0 

-0.8 7 

1.0 8 

-1.9 0 

-0.6 5 

1.0 6 

-0.5 6 

3.2 0 

0.2 0 

-0.2 9 

0.6 3 

0 . 0 

-0.7 1 

0.5 1 

-0.1 1 

0 . 0 

0.8 3 

0.1 0 

0.1 9 

0.2 0 

0.7 9 

1.1 8 

-0.5 9 

0.8 1 

1.0 1 

0.9 2 

5.6 5 

-1.0 7 

2.2 5 

-0.5 2 

0 . 0 

3.5 1 

-2.5 2 

-0.3 3 

-1.3 6 

-1.1 3 

1.8 6 

2.8 4 

-1.2 5 

0.7 3 

0 . 0 

-1.0 2 

0.5 1 

-0.3 2 

-0.6 4 

1.2 4 

0.9 9 

-3.1 8 

-0.2 0 

0.2 0 

1.8 0 

-0.7 6 

-0.1 6 

1.5 3 

1.8 3 

0.5 7 

1.3 5 

0 . 0 

-0.9 4 

3.2 4 

2.5 7 

-0.8 0 

-0.6 6 

-2.0 2 

0.1 1 

2.4 3 

0.4 9 

-2.5 4 

0.9 3 

0.5 9 

-0.4 1 

0.3 0 

0.3 2 

0.1 1 

0 . 0 

-0.2 0 

-0.1 9 

0.4 0 

0.2 0 

0.8 8 

1.3 6 

0.4 9 

0.4 5 

3.5 2 

0.3 9 

2.8 4 

55.7 4 

54.1 4 

55.9 8 

55.6 2 

55.1 6 

54.8 9 

53.8 2 

55.7 2 

56.0 4 

55.4 5 

54.3 6 

54.8 6 

54.6 2 

54.1 3 

54.3 0 

54.3 1 

54.4 3 

55.2 3 

55.7 0 

55.9 9 

55.9 6 

56.6 2 

55.8 0 

55.5 6 

56.0 4 

57.2 4 

56.7 2 

55.1 6 

s'.5 

10. 9 

12. 3 

8 . 9 

9 . 1 

7 . 2 

13. 3 

11. 5 

11. 6 

11. 1 

16. 5 

12. 9 

13. 5 

15. 9 

14. 1 

13. 9 

12. 6 

12. 1 

10. 3 

8 . 7 

8 . 4 

7 . 6 

8 . 6 

12. 6 

11. 7 

10. 2 

9 . 9 

15. 5 

55.7 2 

54.8 0 

55.8 3 

55.4 0 

55.6 8 

54.7 1 

53.8 5 

55.9 1 

55.8 3 

55.0 7 

54.2 9 

54.4 8 

54.9 3 

54.2 0 

54.0 0 

54.2 1 

54.4 7 

55.1 9 

55.9 6 

55.9 7 

56.0 7 

56.6 1 

55.6 6 

55.7 0 

56.1 9 

57.3 6 

56.3 9 

55.1 6 

i'.'s 

11. 6 

10. 7 

9 . 7 

9 . 5 

7 . 9 

13. 2 

11. 3 

10. 9 

10. 4 

16. 4 

13. 1 

13. 9 

17. 0 

13. 3 

13. 3 

14. 0 

11. 7 

9 . 7 

8 . 9 

8 . 1 

8 . 0 

9 . 4 

12. 0 

11. 4 

10. 0 

9 . 7 

16. 8 

S AND FIBERS), 

3.0 6 

-1.2 7 

-0.4 8 

1.8 0 

-0.8 0 

0.9 9 

-2.6 0 

2.1 7 

-0.5 9 

0.2 9 

-2.6 0 

2.4 5 

! 0.2 9 

l -1.0 4 

j 0.5 1 

-0.3 2 

0.4 3 

0.8 1 

0.4 9 

-0.1 9 

0.2 0 

1.1 8 

0.2 6 

1.5 9 

0.2 4 

1.3 5 

2.6 6 

0.0 9 

-0.8 6 

1.0 7 

0 . 0 

0.7 3 

2.2 6 

-2.6 3 

0.1 1 

-0.1 1 

0.6 7 

0.2 0 

1.2 7 

-2.2 6 

0.4 0 

0.5 8 

-0.7 3 

-2.5 2 

-0.2 1 

0.1 1 

0.6 1 

0.4 9 

-0.2 9 

1.0 0 

0.5 8 

0 . 0 

-1.9 8 

-0.6 4 

1.7 0 

5.7 3 

-0.0 4 

-0.6 1 

Dec. 

55.9 9 

54.6 0 

55.5 4 

55.9 7 

55.8 2 

53.9 8 

53.5 9 

56.2 4 

55.8 9 

55.2 5 

54.2 9 

55.1 1 

54.5 7 

54.0 0 j 

53.9 9 

54.1 0 

54.4 6 

55.3 8 

55.8 0 

56.1 5 

56.2 0 ! 

56.6 8 

55.5 4 

55.7 4 

56.3 9 

57.3 4 

56.0 0 

55.2 3 

s!i 

11. 8 j 

10.7 1 

9 . 3 

8 . 8 j 

8 . 0 

13. 4 

12. 0 

11. 4 

10. 4 

15. 7 ! 

13. 1 

12. 4 

15. 8 

13. 6 

13. 3 

12. 7 

11. 4 

9 . 5 ! 

8 . 6 

8 . 2 

8 . 0 

9 . 8 

11. 5 

11. 4 

9 . 5 

10. 2 

16. 9 

2!4 7 

-0.7 5 

-0.3 6 

1.3 5 

-0.2 1 

0.9 8 

-1.9 0 

-1.1 1 

2.0 9 

1.8 4 

0.6 3 

-1.2 9 

-0.8 7 

0 . 0 

0.9 3 

0.8 5 

0.5 3 

1.3 1 

0.1 9 

-0.7 8 

0.5 9 

0.5 8 

0.7 0 

1.9 3 

1.6 2 

1.0 2 

4.2 8 

-2.6 1 

2.6 7 

Quarterly 

IQ 

55.'7 9 

55.3 4 

54.3 8 

55.8 9 

55.6 8 

56.2 1 

54.1 7 

54.1 4 

56.0 6 

55.9 6 

54.3 2 

54.5 1 

54.7 0 

54.4 2 

54.3 0 

53.9 9 

54.2 6 

54.6 1 

55.3 3 

55.5 4 

55.7 4 

56.3 4 

56.5 7 

55.4 1 

55.8 0 

56.5 4 

57.3 5 

55.3 6 

8 . 7 

8 . 3 

11. 8 

10. 5 

8 . 8 

8 . 7 

9 . 6 

13. 7 

11. 9 

10. 6 

10. 9 

15. 7 

13. 2 

13. 8 

15. 4 

14. 1 

13. 4 

12. 3 

11. 4 

9 . 1 

8 . 9 

8 . 0 

8 . 1 

10. 5 

12. 3 

10. 7 

9 . 6 

11. 3 

0.6 9 

-1.5 4 

1 1.0 4 

0.6 0 

-0.3 1 

0.4 0 

-0.8 4 

1.6 6 

0.1 4 

-1.0 2 

-0.1 0 

0.8 3 

-1.2 1 

0.4 9 

-0.2 4 

-0.1 7 

0 . 0 

-0.5 6 

1.0 3 

-0.6 9 

0.2 7 

0.7 0 

0.7 7 

-0.0 3 

0.7 1 

0.7 4 

4.9 0 

-0.9 6 

II Q III Q IVQ 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

55.9 7 

54.5 9 

55.2 6 

55.7 6 

55.3 9 

55.5 1 

53.7 6 

54.7 4 

56.1 1 

55.7 8 

54.0 1 

55.0 3 

55.2 6 

54.1 5 

54.2 5 

54.1 5 

54.6 7 

54.9 6 

55.4 5 

55.6 5 

56.1 6 

56.4 2 

56.2 1 

55.3 5 

56.0 1 

56.9 0 

57.1 7 

55.1 5 

56.0 8 

54.3 5 

55.7 7 

55.6 7 

55.2 3 

55.2 3 

53.6 2 

55.6 1 

56.1 2 

55.7 1 

54.0 7 

54.9 4 

55.1 2 

54.0 3 

54.3 0 

54.2 2 

54.5 0 

55.1 3 

55.6 2 

55.9 1 

56.0 2 

56.5 8 

55.9 4 

55.4 7 

56.1 1 

56.9 6 

56.9 9 

55.2 8 

55.8 2 

54.5 1 

55.7 8 1 

55.6 6 | 

55.5 5 

54.5 3 

53.7 5 

55.9 6 

55.9 2 

55.2 6 

54.3 1 

54.8 2 

54.7 1 

54.1 1 

54.1 0 

54.2 1 

54.4 5 

55.2 7 

55.8 2 

56.0 4 

56.0 8 

56.6 4 

55.6 7 

55.6 7 

56.2 1 

57.3 1 

56.3 7 

55.1 8 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

8 . 8 

9 . 3 

12. 8 

9 . 7 

8 . 0 

8 . 0 

11. 6 

14. 0 

10. 5 

10. 4 

13. 2 

14. 8 

12. 1 

15. 8 

15. 2 

14. 3 

13. 2 

11. 4 

10. 2 

8 . 6 

8 . 3 

7 . 8 

8 . 5 

11. 2 

12. 4 

9 . 9 

9 . 7 

13. 9 

8 . 6 

11. 2 

12. 3 

9 . 1 

7 . 7 

7 . 7 

12. 7 

12. 6 

11. 4 

10. 1 

15. 6 

13. 9 

12. 6 

16. 8 

14. 4 

14. 0 

13. 5 

11. 8 

9 . 9 

8 . 5 

8 . 3 

7 . 9 

8 . 9 

11. 6 

11. 9 

9 . 6 

9 . 7 

15. 5 

8 . 5 

11. 4 

11. 2 

9 . 3 ! 

9 . 1 

7 . 7 

13. 3 

11. 6 

11. 3 

10. 6 

16. 2 

13. 0 

13. 3 

16. 2 

13. 7 

13. 5 

13. 1 

11. 7 1 

9 . 8 

8 . 7 

8 . 2 

7 . 9 

9 . 3 

12. 0 

11. 5 

9 . 9 

9 . 9 

16. 4 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

-0.6 3 

1.5 2 

-2.8 6 

2.9 3 

-0.6 6 

-1.0 2 

0.2 2 

1.2 0 

0.1 1 

-1.5 2 

0.6 3 

0.0 7 

0.2 3 

-0.2 3 

0.3 8 

-0.6 9 

-0.1 1 

0.4 9 

0.5 0 

0.1 9 

-0.0 3 

-0.5 8 

1.1 1 

0.3 7 

0.4 2 

0.2 3 

2.3 5 

0.7 9 

1.0 3 

2.7 9 

0.4 8 

0.7 9 

2.3 9 

-1.7 4 

-0.5 5 

-0.7 7 

-0.5 3 

2.5 0 

1.1 8 

-1.3 6 

0.7 6 

0.2 0 

-0.7 1 

0.4 4 

-0.0 4 

-0.1 8 

0.6 9 

0.3 0 

-1.0 6 

0.1 3 

0.4 0 

1.2 9 

0 . 0 

0.3 8 

1.0 0 

2.0 9 

2.2 0 

1.0 4 

2.2 0 

-0.6 7 

-0.0 4 

1.8 0 

-1.2 1 

0.6 9 

-1.5 4 

0.5 8 

0.5 7 

1.1 3 

-1.4 1 

0.5 2 

0 . 0 

-0.5 9 

-0.3 6 

0.1 1 

0.3 6 

0.9 1 

0.3 9 

-0.4 2 

0.6 0 

0.7 8 

0.3 2 

0.5 1 

0.4 1 

1.3 6 

4.2 2 

-0.8 5 

0.4 0 

Annual 

55.9 1 

54.7 0 

55.3 0 

55.7 5 

55.4 6 

55.3 7 

53.8 2 

55.1 1 

56.0 5 

55.6 8 

54.1 8 

54.8 2 

54.9 5 

54.1 8 

54.2 4 

54.1 4 

54.4 7 

54.9 9 

55.5 5 

55.7 9 

56.0 0 

56.4 9 

56.1 0 

55.4 7 

56.0 3 

56.9 3 

56.9 7 

55.2 4 

8 . 6 

10. 0 

12. 1 

9 . 7 

8 . 4 

8 . 0 

11. 8 

13. 0 

11. 3 

10. 5 

| 13. 9 

14. 4 

12. 8 

15. 6 

14. 7 

14. 0 

13. 3 

11. 8 

10. 4 

8 . 7 

8 . 4 

7 . 8 

8 . 6 

11. 3 

12. 0 

10. 0 

9 . 8 

14. 2 

0.5 0 

-0.9 1 

2.0 4 

-0.7 5 

-0.3 0 

-0.4 2 

0.1 0 

1.2 1 

0.2 3 

-0.7 9 

0.3 1 

0.3 1 

-0.6 9 

0.2 4 

-0.2 1 

-0.0 2 

0.5 2 

0.1 6 

-0.0 7 

0 . 0 

0.2 2 

0.8 6 

0.4 1 

0.2 9 

0.8 2 

2.3 5 

1.7 6 

0.3 8 

BCD 1977 101 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Jan. Feb. Mar. 

Monthly 

Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 

9 2. CHANGE IN SENSITIVE PRICES (WPI OF CRUDE MATERIALS EXCLUDING FOODS, FEEDS AND FIBERS), 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974. .. 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1.99 

-0.59 

0.04 

1.77 

-1.20 

0.42 

-1.31 

0.61 

0.86 

0.91 

-1.12 

0.16 

-0.06 

-0.47 

-0.32 

0.05 

0.28 

0.44 

0.49 

-0.47 

0.51 

0.66 

0.39 

0.29 

0.43 

1.31 

4.45 

-1.04 

1.72 

-0.92 

0.28 

1.39 

-0.82 

0.40 

-1.20 

0.88 

0.83 

0.25 

-0.27 

-0.03 

-0.50 

-0.12 

0.08 

0.06 

0.14 

-0.12 

0.71 

-0.62 

0.32 

0.47 

0.71 

0.40 

0.59 

1.14 

4.71 

-1.36 

1.17 

-1.44 

0.74 

0.82 

-0.38 

0.52 

-1.08 

1.39 

0.32 

-0.60 

0.09 

0.49 

-1.04 

0.30 

0.10 

-0.03 

0.03 

-0.39 

0.93 

-0.74 

0.23 

0.54 

0.86 

0.35 

0.72 

0.88 

4.82 

-1.23 

9 3. FREE RESERVES 

996 

1,126 

744 

938 

669 

900 

613 

723 

-640 

836 

369 

-255 

116 

122 

-59 

-375 

696 

555 

375 

175 

106 

-44 

-16 

144 

-480 

-799 

-91 

153 

-823 

-790 

-441 

io6 

143 

169 

35 

212 

210 

1,347 

100 

313 

807 

406 

451 

556 

905 

49 

70 

99 

256 

299 

402 

389 

237 

697 

j 965 

370 

20 

j 1,164 

1,044 

390 

720 

807 

602 

560 

600 

614 

298 

330 

-672 

339 

270 

-267 

-126 

324 

-48 

-365 

517 

434 

301 

89 

36 

-107 

-4 

38 

-596 

-819 

-127 

91 

-1,388 

-980 

95 

94 

203 

244 

110 

123 

330 

365 

1,310 

293 

354 

799 

640 

242 

508 

816 

137 

68 

172 

304 

405 

478 

362 

361 

824 

1,092 

328 

33 

1,593 

1,186 

147 

766 

505 

698 

552 

546 

655 

471 

578 

-614 

503 

122 

-409 

-316 

495 

-140 

-219 

486 

382 

269 

99 

-75 

-246 

236 

-315 

-701 

-781 

-120 

134 

-1,563 

-1,444 

167 

. MEMBER 

173 

270 

148 

128 

242 

307 

1,202 

189 

463 

993 

834 

138 

601 

635 

70 

91 

155 

259 

416 

551 

199 

671 

918 

896 

319 

99 

1,858 

1,352 

106 

SMOOTHED DATA' (PERCENT) 

'.'.'. 2*12 0.*19 

0.94 1.32 1.48 

-2.16 -2.89 -2.92 

1.33 1.84 2.50 

0.35 0.01 -0.36 

-0.30 -0.17 -0.54 

0.42 0.09 -0.02 

-0.38 0.66 1.22 

1.39 0.69 0.18 

0.12 0.15 -0.66 

-1.14 .-0.77 0.17 

-0.10 -0.19 -0.10 

0.83 0.59 0.29 

-1.14 -0.77 -0.35 

0.66 0.79 0.56 

-0.51 -0.79 -0.74 

-0.10 -0.05 -0.09 

0.25 0.48 0.48 

-0.11 0.54 0.62 

0.80 0.40 0.21 

-0.83 -0.73 -0.26 

0.04 -0.37 -0.57 

0.82 1.10 1.18 

0.74 0.50 0.32 

0.18 0.37 0.39 

0.58 0.54 0.43 

0.94 1.36 1.96 

5.06 3.67 1.46 

-0.63 0.13 0.79 

0.09 

1.44 

-2.25 

2.82 

-0.99 

-1.02 

0.48 

0.85 

0.52 

-1.66 

0.87 

0.32 

0.18 

-0.40 

0.34 

-0.56 

-0.07 

0.38 

0.40 

0.27 

0.22 

-0.18 

1.11 

0.18 

0.30 

0.47 

2.12 

0.90 

0.69 

1.79 

1.04 

-1.13 

2.79 

-1.69 

-1.12 

0.59 

-0.12 

1.32 

-1.10 

0.65 

0.60 

0.13 

-0.77 

0.34 

-0.42 

-0.14 

0.55 

0.26 

-0.21 

0.34 

0.40 

1.23 

-0.15 

0.18 

0.84 

1.82 

1.67 

0.30 

2.79 

0.60 

0.09 

2.63 

-1.90 

-0.88 

-0.17 

-0.64 

2.11 

0.40 

-0.59 

0.70 

0.16 

-0.84 

0.41 

-0.23 

-0.21 

• 0.76 

0.26 

-0.92 

0.17 

0.48 

1.32 

-0.15 

0.27 

0.99 

1.92 

2.27 

0.64 

2.28 

-0.21 

0.85 

2.51 

-1.56 

-0.27 

-1.38 

-0.07 

1.86 

1.19 

-1.74 

1.07 

0.24 

-0.77 

0.44 

-0.07 

-0.11 

0.69 

0.36 

-1.12 

0.13 

0.46 

1.13 

0.37 

0.28 

1.05 

2.38 

1.28 

1.07 

(MEMBER BANKS EXCESS RESERVES MINUS BORROWINGS) ® 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

571 373 749 

631 806 816 

707 677 650 

700 599 752 

608 601 658 

593 624 700 

672 152 664 

283 65 130 

-631 -353 365 

626 561 711 

95 212 168 

-533 -504 -195 

-504 -444 -508 

492 547 484 

-259 -319 -513 

-194 -33 37 

551 453 549 

441 440 391 

313 247 138 

167 82 120 

-105 -180 -182 

-268 -352 -352 

175 269 297 

-413 -326 -341 

-844 -1,102 -1,064 

-704 -795 -701 

-8 -18 -322 

27 -15 110 

-1,564 -1,638 -1,653 

-1,506 -2,282 -2,739 

17 -52 288 

1,056 

807 

689 

722 

910 

623 

562 

-468 

366 

770 

92 

-139 

-383 

547 

-556 

120 

530 

440 

161 

135 

-174 

-362 

272 

-226 

-1,074 

-1,217 

-658 

-55 

-1,584 

-2,982 

-276 

BANK BORROWINGS FROM THE FEDERAL 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

126 107 135 

111 144 100 

98 176 100 

101 80 68 

161 438 170 

367 563 579 

1,166 944 423 

139 155 146 

495 368 401 

1,060 971 769 

1,011 909 1,005 

130 119 142 

676 767 921 

602 502 425 

56 96 63 

69 63 100 

121 209 236 

213 255 270 

471 505 528 

626 722 674 

134 101 123 

683 746 692 

996 1,402 1,407 

822 976 888 

148 330 453 

109 119 94 

1,721 1,786 1,788 

1,714 2,580 3,000 

110 60 271 

92 

95 

109 

123 

194 

1,077 

418 

65 

527 

738 

917 

109 

956 

388 

51 

89 

322 

265 

524 

766 

87 

525 

1,190 

1,358 

820 

202 

2,050 

3,308 

261 

701 

765 

673 

750 

861 

483 

412 

-383 

-7 

725 

-189 

-339 

-471 

382 

-536 

247 

537 

439 

133 

83 

-134 

-390 

298 

-190 

-946 

-682 

-606 

-183 

-1,734 

-3,008 

44 

RESERVE 

127 

87 

94 

164 

292 

1,032 

651 

115 

765 

898 

1,005 

252 

1,008 

293 

67 

127 

330 

334 

564 

728 

89 

565 

1,249 

827 

804 

438 

2,144 

3,351 

211 

675 

736 

798 

756 

847 

669 

383 

95 

250 

708 

-286 

-214 

-466 

95 

-493 

414 

547 

375 

91 

89 

-144 

-368 

268 

-132 

-831 

-335 

-295 

-352 

-1,477 

-2,957 

-136 

® 

133 

128 

75 

96 

338 

683 

468 

67 

849 

792 

988 

476 

903 

225 

37 

80 

321 

331 

528 

766 

90 

515 

1,067 

607 

501 

514 

1,861 

3,287 

396 

699 

756 

783 

706 

816 

775 

821 

-400 

390 

638 

-359 

-195 

-344 

96 

-459 

480 

442 

419 

94 

106 

-146 

-431 

160 

-167 

-992 

-208 

-153 

-327 

-1,141 

-1,585 

30 

171 

111 

46 

67 

95 

1,048 

362 

82 

884 

715 

811 

425 

905 

149 

65 

65 

313 

309 

490 

733 

126 

427 

1,135 

462 

360 

574 

1,465 

1,793 

191 

1.57 

-0.82 

1.04 

2.42 

-1.39 

0.07 

-1.78 

0.68 

0.96 

0.94 

-2.30 

1.31 

0.39 

-0.77 

-0.06 

-0.09 

0.09 

0.58 

0.34 

-0.70 

0.33 

0.59 

0.68 

0.53 

0.11 

1.14 

3.32 

0.25 

0.78 

575 

643 

576 

655 

677 

586 

389 

-875 

193 

650 

-492 

-154 

-293 

20 

-433 

614 

517 

473 

33 

-34 

-83 

-222 

270 

-245 

-988 

-305 

-144 

-292 

-1,111 

-960 

257 

274 

118 

134 

145 

340 

1,532 

486 

164 

1,016 

744 

804 

486 

878 

142 

105 

119 

376 

430 

452 

611 

133 

569 

1,241 

425 

407 

606 

1,399 

1,285 

61 

Dec. 

1.79 

-0.70 

0.56 

2.01 

-1.31 

0.42 

-1.56 

0.78 

0.62 

0.91 i 

-1.94 

0.89 

0.24 

-0.66 

-0.46 

0.02 | 

0.29 

0.69 

0.32 

-0.32 

0.57 | 

0.72 j 

0.35 

0.42 

0.22 

1.26 

4.10 

-0.35 

0.43 

1,157 

743 

762 

663 

685 

885 

169 

-870 

252 

457 

-245 

-36 

-133 

-41 

-424 

669 

419 

268 

209 

168 

-2 

-165 

107 

-310 

-829 

-49 

58 

-830 

-995 

-332 

148 

224 

134 

118 

142 

657 

1,593 

441 

246 

839 

688 

710 

557 

906 

87 

149 

304 

327 

243 

454 

557 

238 

765 | 

1,086 

321 

107 

1,049 ! 

1,298 

703 

127 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

K 63 

-0.98 

0.35 

1.33 

-0.80 

U.45 

-1.20 

0.96 

0.67 

U.19 

-0.43 

0.21 

-0.53 

-0.10 

-0.05 

0.03 

0.15 

-0.02 

0.71 

-0.61 

0.35 

0.56 

0.65 

0.35 

0.58 

1.11 

4.66 

-1.21 

827 

813 

681 

683 

605 

723 

461 

544 

-642 

559 

254 

-310 

-109 

314 

-82 

-320 

566 

457 

315 

121 

22 

-132 

7 2 

-44 

-592 

-800 

-113 

126 

-1,258 

-1,U71 

-60 

161 

219 

142 

95 

261 

294 

1,286 

194 

377 

866 

627 

277 

555 

785 

85 

76 

142 

273 

373 

477 

317 

423 

813 

984 

339 

51 

1,538 

j 1,194 

214 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

. . . i!s6 

1.25 1.03 

-2.66 -1.10 

1.89 2.75 

0.0 -1.53 

-0.34 -1.01 

0.16 0.30 

0.50 0.03 

0.75 1.32 

-0.13 -0.79 

-0.56 0.31 

-0.13 0.54 

0.57 0.16 

-0.75 -0.67 

0.67 0.36 

-0.68 -0.40 

-0.08 -0.14 

0.40 0.56 

0.35 0.31 

0.47 -0.29 

-0.61 0.24 

-0.30 0.23 

1.03 1.22 

0.52 -0.04 

0.31 0.25 

0.52 0.77 

1.42 1.95 

3.40 1.61 

0.10 0.54 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

K 88 

-0.58 

0.82 

2.31 

-1.42 

0.07 

-1.57 

0.46 

1.15 

1.01 

-1.99 

1.09 

0.29 

-0.73 

-0.03 

-0.05 

0.09 

0.65 

0.34 

-0.71 

0.34 

0.59 

0.72 

0.44 

0.20 

1.15 

3.27 

0.39 

0.76 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

564 811 

751 769 

678 720 

684 743 

622 873 

639 592 

496 452 

159 -252 

-206 203 

633 734 

158 -128 

-411 -231 

-485 -440 

508 341 

-364 -528 

-63 260 

518 538 

424 418 

233 128 

123 102 

-lab -151 

-324 -373 

247 279 

-360 -183 

-1,U03 -950 

-733 -745 

-lib -520 

41 -197 

-1,618 -1,598 

-2,176 -2,982 

84 -123 

810 

714 

707 

675 

726 

749 

460 

-715 

280 

582 

-365 

-128 

-257 

25 

-439 

588 

459 

387 

112 

80 

-77 

-273 

179 

-241 

-936 

-187 

-80 

-483 

-1,082 

-959 

145 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

123 117 

lib 103 

125 93 

83 128 

256 275 

503 931 

844 512 

147 82 

421 714 

933 809 

975 970 

130 279 

788 956 

510 302 

72 52 

77 99 

189 324 

246 310 

501 539 

674 753 

119 89 

707 535 

1,268 1,169 

895 931 

310 708 

107 385 

1,765 2,018 

2,431 3,315 

147 289 

223 

121 

99 

118 

364 

1,391 

430 

164 

913 

716 

775 

489 

896 

126 

106 

163 

339 

327 

465 

634 

166 

587 

1,154 

403 

291 

743 

1,387 

1,260 

126 

Annual 

o!83 

-0.98 

1.83 

-0.40 

-0.52 

-0.17 

-0.05 

1.04 

0.19 

-0.52 

0.27 

0.31 

-0.67 

0.23 

J -0.29 

-0.03 

0.44 

0.24 

0.04 

-0.16 

0.22 

0.88 

0.39 

0.28 

0.75 

1.94 

2.52 

0.05 

753 

762 

697 

696 

706 

676 

467 

! -66 

-91 

627 

-20 

-270 

-323 

297 

-353 

116 

520 

421 

197 

107 

-90 

-276 

194 

-207 

-871 

-616 

-207 

-128 

-1,389 

-1,797 

12 

156 

140 

115 

106 

289 

780 

768 

147 

606 

831 

837 

294 

799 

431 

1

 79 

104 

248 

289 

470 

634 

173 

563 

1,101 

803 

412 

321 

1,677 

2,050 

194 

'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 

102 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

194b.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949 . . . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1953.. . 

1959.. . 

196U.. . 

1961.. . 

19fa2.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1*65.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

197U.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

I960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

197U.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

102 . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

1I4 7 

2.2 9 

3.3 9 

4.2 8 

5.3 7 

5.9 8 

5.8 1 

6.9 6 

7.9 1 

7.9 4 

8.9 5 

9.2 1 

9.4 9 

9.0 2 

9.8 7 

! 10.4 6 

10.1 0 

10.6 3 

11.4 8 

12.0 3 

12.4 6 

12.2 9 

11.9 8 

12.1 1 

12.3 1 

11.9 5 

12.1 3 

12.5 8 

13.1 0 

12.6 8 

3l!a 3 

28.2 5 

25.6 3 

20.2 0 

40.8 4 

63.9 9 

74.4 1 

56.1 8 

46.0 3 

57.5 5 

63.6 3 

46.0 5 

45.2 2 

47.7 0 

42.1 4 

44.7 0 

4 6 83 

52.5 6 

64.6 5 

78.2 3 

94.5 9 

101.1 8 

106.5 6 

110.7 9 

103.5 2 

102.7 6 

118.5 2 

158.1 6 

181.8 0 

Feb. Mar. 

9 5 . RATIO 

U 5 2 

2.3 9 

3.4 9 

4.3 5 

5.4 2 

5.9 5 

5.7 8 

7.0 7 

7.9 1 

8.0 3 

9.0 2 

9.2 0 

9.4 7 

9.0 8 

9.9 9 

10.4 0 

10.0 9 

10.7 8 

11.5 6 

12.1 6 

12.4 3 

12.2 7 

11.9 6 

12.1 6 

12.3 0 

11.9 8 

12.0 8 

12.6 3 

13.1 3 

12.6 8 

1.5 5 

2.4 9 

3.5 9 

4.4 1 

5.4 2 

5.9 1 

5.8 0 

7.1 9 

7.9 1 

8.1 6 

9.0 9 

9.2 2 

9.3 8 

9.1 2 

10.0 9 

10.3 7 

10.0 8 

10.8 6 

11.6 3 

12.2 1 

12.4 6 

12.2 2 

11.9 2 

12.1 5 

12.2 4 

11.9 6 

12.1 6 

12.7 1 

13.1 2 

12.5 9 

9 6 . MANUF 

3l!6 b 

27.9 6 

24.7 8 

20.5 6 

44.5 6 

63.9 8 

74.8 3 

54.4 9 

46.6 5 

57.7 8 

63.6 1 

45.1 8 

46.3 9 

46.6 5 

42.2 2 

45.1 9 

47.9 1 

53.1 8 

65.5 8 

79.8 3 

94.6 8 

101.3 9 

107.3 4 

109.7 6 

104.1 2 

103.4 2 

121.2 4 

161.8 0 

179.1 0 

CHANGE IN MONEY 

o!2 7 

-0.1 4 

0.2 0 

0.3 3 

0.3 7 

0.1 2 

0.2 9 

0.5 0 

0.1 1 

0.3 7 

-0.1 0 

0.6 3 

-0.0 9 

0.4 1 

0.7 0 

0.7 4 

0.3 9 

0.7 2 

0.8 6 

- 0.5 0 

0.5 4 

0.5 2 

0.1 8 

1.1 1 

1.1 2 

0.8 8 

0.7 7 

0.3 9 

31.4 9 

27.8 1 

23.8 2 

20.9 7 

48.4 7 

65.9 5 

74.0 3 

52.0 0 

47.8 4 

58.1 9 

62.7 4 

44.8 4 

47.5 1 

45.5 9 

41.9 7 

44.7 9 

49.2 7 

53.9 7 

66.3 6 

82.1 4 

94.1 8 

102.8 0 

108.0 0 

109.0 0 

104.1 0 

103.8 7 

125.5 0 

164.7 5 

175.4 4 

SUPPLY M 

BANKS OTH 

o!2 8 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0.5 4 

0.2 0 

0.5 0 

0.1 8 

0.2 9 

0.6 1 

0 . 0 

0.2 1 

1.1 9 

0.3 8 

-0.3 8 

0.6 9 

0.6 5 

0.4 5 

0.4 6 

0.7 2 

0.4 9 

1.0 3 

0.7 1 

0.4 2 

-0.2 5 

1.5 2 

1.0 3 

0.5 1 

0.8 5 

0.5 9 

0.4 9 

-0.4 0 

0 . 0 

0.2 7 

0.3 3 

0.2 5 

0.5 3 

0.2 9 

-0.1 1 

0.2 2 

0.3 7 

0.8 2 

0.2 9 

-0.1 0 

0.2 3 

0.7 8 

0.5 3 

0.3 8 

0.5 7 

0.5 2 

0.9 0 

0.5 9 

0.3 6 

0.6 4 

1.4 5 

1.0 2 

0.4 3 

0.6 2 

0.7 4 

Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 

, CONSUMER INSTALLMENT DEBT TO PERSONAL INCOME 

l!6 1 

2.6 4 

3.7 3 

4.5 5 

5.6 6 

5.8 2 

5.8 9 

7.3 4 

7.9 6 

8.2 5 

9.1 0 

9.2 6 

9.3 7 

9.1 6 

10.1 2 

10.3 2 

10.1 4 

10.9 5 

11.6 6 

12.3 1 

12.4 8 

12.1 9 

11.9 6 

12.2 0 

11.9 9 

11.9 8 

12.2 0 

12.7 5 

13.1 0 

12.5 4 

ACTURERS 

(PERCENT) 

l!6 8 

2.7 6 

3.7 8 

4.6 7 

5.7 9 

5.7 7 

6.0 0 

7.4 1 

7.8 9 

8.3 4 

9.1 5 

9.2 8 

9.3 1 

9.2 1 

10.1 5 

10.2 5 

10.2 2 

11.0 0 

11.7 2 

12.3 5 

12.5 0 

12.1 7 

11.9 4 

12.2 6 

12.1 0 

11.9 8 

12.2 7 

12.8 3 

13.0 6 

12.4 1 

1.7 3 

2.8 3 

3.7 6 

4.8 0 

5.9 2 

5.6 9 

6.1 9 

7.4 5 

7.8 8 

8.4 8 

9.1 5 

9.2 8 

9.2 3 

9.2 8 

10.2 3 

10.1 6 

10.2 9 

11.0 4 

11.7 9 

12.3 8 

12.4 8 

12.1 4 

11.9 3 

12.3 0 

12.1 6 

11.7 8 

12.5 3 

12.8 9 

13.0 4 

12.1 5 

UNFILLED ORDERS 

(BILLIONS 

3l!o 7 

27.8 2 

22.5 2 

21.4 3 

51.7 7 

68.1 3 

73.5 1 

50.1 7 

48.2 0 

59.4 1 

61.8 8 

44.1 5 

48.3 1 

44.7 0 

42.2 8 

44.1 7 

49.9 1 

54.9 2 

67.4 8 

84.0 8 

94.5 3 

103.2 1 

110.4 0 

107.5 8 

103.4 4 

104.3 0 

129.0 0 

167.7 3 

172.7 6 

30.7 2 

27.4 9 

21.4 2 

21.8 6 

54.2 0 

68.3 4 

73.4 2 

48.3 8 

48.5 4 

59.9 6 

61.2 4 

43.9 9 

48.1 3 

44.2 0 

42.5 3 

43.8 4 

50.8 4 

56.1 1 

68.4 4 

85.6 1 

95.5 7 

102.9 8 

111.5 0 

106.9 5 

102.3 4 

105.3 1 

132.9 2 

173.0 7 

171.3 5 

OF DOLLA 

30^3 2 

28.2 2 

20.1 8 

22.6 3 

56.8 0 

71.0 6 

72.8 9 

46.7 1 

49.1 0 

60.2 2 

59.9 9 

44.2 8 

48.4 6 

44.0 1 

42.7 1 

43.6 8 

50.6 2 

57.3 4 

69.3 2 

87.7 9 

97.1 9 

102.9 5 

111.5 8 

106.3 6 

100.7 3 

107.2 3 

136.2 6 

176.8 4 

168.7 6 

2 (DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CU 

ER THAN LARGE CD 

o!b 3 

-0.2 0 

0.1 4 

0.5 4 

0.1 9 

0.3 1 

0.2 9 

-0.0 6 

0.2 7 

0.2 7 

0.1 6 

0.7 6 

0.3 3 

0.2 9 

0.5 5 

0.6 9 

0.6 1 

0.3 4 

0.5 0 

0.9 1 

0.4 3 

0.5 3 

0.3 6 

0.8 9 

1.0 7 

0.7 4 

0.6 5 

0.6 5 

0.5 8 

0.4 8 

-0.1 4 

0.2 0 

0.4 7 

0.3 2 

0.3 7 

0.2 9 

0.8 6 

0.3 8 

-0.0 5 

0.3 1 

0.6 5 

0.3 3 

-0.1 0 

0.5 9 

0.2 1 

0.5 6 

0.6 8 

0.3 9 

0.4 5 

1.2 8 

0.8 1 

0.2 6 

0.5 3 

1.1 2 

0.6 9 

0.9 8 

0.3 6 

1.1 3 

S) (MG 

0^34 

0 . 0 

-0.0 7 

0.2 7 

0.3 2 

0.4 3 

0.1 2 

0.2 8 

0 . 0 

0.2 7 

0.1 0 

0.9 0 

0.2 8 

0.2 4 

0.4 0 

0.4 2 

0.5 6 

0.6 0 

0.7 7 

0.2 9 

1.0 9 

0.7 8 

0.3 8 

0.5 7 

0.9 1 

0.8 5 

0.8 3 

0.6 8 

1.3 4 

1.7 6 

2.9 3 

3.8 3 

4.9 2 

6.0 2 

5.6 5 

6.3 5 

7.5 7 

7.8 9 

8.4 9 

9.2 2 

9.3 0 

9.0 6 

9.4 0 

10.2 9 

10.1 2 

10.3 4 

11.1 5 

11.8 4 

12.4 3 

12.4 9 

12.0 7 

11.9 2 

12.2 8 

12.1 5 

11.9 8 

12.4 1 

12.9 7 

12.9 5 

12.2 6 

1.8 5 

3.0 2 

3.8 7 

5.0 0 

6.0 8 

5.6 5 

6.2 5 

7.6 4 

7.8 3 

8.6 4 

9.1 5 

9.3 1 

9.0 5 

9.6 4 

10.3 5 

10.1 3 

10.4 0 

11.2 2 

11.8 5 

12.5 0 

12.4 5 

12.0 6 

11.9 3 

12.2 6 

12.1 4 

12.0 1 

12.4 2 

12.9 9 

12.9 7 

12.1 8 

, DURABLE GOODS 

RS) 

29.5 6 

28.5 8 

19.3 0 

24.9 6 

59.0 4 

72.8 7 

70.7 1 

45.5 2 

49.9 1 

61.7 0 

58.2 6 

44.2 7 

48.2 1 

43.4 6 

43.0 1 

43.6 8 

50.6 3 

58.9 4 

70.1 6 

89.6 3 

97.8 8 

101.5 8 

111.4 5 

105.5 9 

100.3 0 

107.8 5 

138.4 0 

180.6 6 

168.3 3 

29.0 6 

28.8 0 

18.8 9 

28.8 7 

60.0 1 

73.5 2 

68.4 6 

44.5 2 

50.5 6 

63.6 0 

56.5 6 

44.1 8 

48.2 5 

43.8 4 

43.4 2 

43.2 9 

50.8 5 

59.6 7 

71.0 3 

90.9 0 

98.4 2 

102.4 2 

111.4 2 

104.3 4 

100.3 2 

108.3 9 

140.9 8 

186.1 2 

167.1 5 

RRENCY PLUS TIME 

1.9 6 

2.8 7 

3.9 5 

5.0 3 

6.1 8 

5.6 8 

6.2 9 

7.6 8 

7.7 8 

8.7 4 

9.1 3 

9.3 8 

8.9 9 

9.7 7 

10.4 0 

10.1 3 

10.4 1 

11.2 6 

11.9 2 

12.2 7 

12.3 9 

12.0 6 

11.9 1 

12.2 7 

12.1 1 

12.0 9 

12.5 0 

12.9 9 

12.9 3 

12.1 7 

Oct. 

2'.00 

3.0 9 

3.9 6 

5.2 7 

6.1 5 

5.6 4 

6.4 7 

7.7 0 

7.7 7 

8.7 9 

9.0 9 

9.4 1 

8.9 8 

9.8 8 

10.4 0 

10.0 8 

10.4 8 

11.3 3 

12.0 2 

12.4 3 

12.3 6 

12.0 6 

11.9 7 

12.2 9 

12.1 7 

12.1 4 

12.4 0 

13.0 1 

12.8 4 

12.1 3 

[NDUSTRIES 

29.0 5 

28.5 3 

18.5 9 

31.0 6 

60.8 1 

74.3 7 

64.9 7 

44.8 2 

51.7 4 

63.7 2 

55.1 5 

43.6 4 

49.0 4 

44.0 1 

43.4 6 

43.8 0 

51.3 7 

60.7 6 

72.3 4 

93.1 5 

98.6 7 

103.4 0 

112.1 6 

103.6 4 

100.6 8 

110.9 6 

143.8 3 

188.7 6 

166.0 4 

DEPOSITS 

NTHLY RATE, PERCENT) 

o'.14 

0.1 4 

-0.0 7 

0.2 6 

0.5 1 

0.3 0 

0.2 3 

0.5 1 

0.2 7 

0.1 1 

0.3 1 

0.4 0 

0.3 8 

0.7 1 

0.4 0 

0.2 5 

0.5 2 

0.6 8 

0.7 0 

0.2 2 

0.9 8 

0.5 5 

-0.2 0 

0.8 9 

0.5 1 

0.9 2 

0.4 9 

0.6 1 

0.8 1 

0.5 5 

0.1 4 

-0.1 4 

0.2 0 

0.4 5 

0.4 2 

0.2 3 

0.5 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0.2 6 

0.6 4 

-0.2 4 

0.6 6 

0.4 0 

0.1 3 

0.4 4 

0.6 7 

0.6 2 

0.3 5 

0.8 6 

0.9 0 

-0.2 6 

1.0 8 

0.4 6 

0.9 7 

0.6 9 

0.4 5 

0.4 5 

0.4 8 

-0.0 7 

-0.0 7 

0.0 7 

0.7 0 

0.6 0 

0.1 2 

0.1 7 

0.2 7 

0.4 3 

0.0 5 

0.2 9 

-0.0 5 

0.5 6 

0.4 0 

0.3 4 

0.4 7 

0.7 8 

0.8 9 

0.5 7 

0.7 3 

0.8 9 

0.1 8 

1.0 0 

0.5 2 

0.9 1 

0.3 8 

0.3 3 

0.4 0 

28.5 6 

28.0 9 

18.9 3 

33.0 3 

62.1 3 

73.8 0 

62.4 3 

46.1 3 

53.2 1 

63.5 6 

53.2 4 

43.6 8 

49.6 7 

43.1 5 

43.4 8 

44.3 1 

51.4 6 

62.0 1 

73.7 1 

94.0 0 

99.7 5 

104.9 7 

112.1 2 

102.5 0 

101.2 7 

111.9 8 

147.2 8 

187.6 7 

164.6 3 

Nov. 

2.1 0 

3.2 1 

4.0 5 

5.3 7 

6.0 9 

5.6 9 

6.6 3 

7.8 4 

7.7 6 

8.8 2 

9.1 5 

9.4 3 

8.8 8 

9.8 6 

10.4 5 

10.0 4 

10.5 5 

11.4 1 

12.0 0 

12.4 2 

12.3 4 

12.0 2 

11.9 9 

12.3 1 

12.1 4 

12.1 8 

12.4 0 

13.0 1 

12.8 1 

12.1 4 

28.5 2 

27.4 8 

19.3 6 

34.1 4 

62.9 4 

73.1 6 

60.5 8 

45.3 1 

54.3 7 

63.8 1 

51.7 9 

44.4 1 

49.5 5 

42.7 6 

43.7 6 

44.3 9 

51.6 3 

62.8 0 

74.9 5 

94.3 5 

100.0 6 

105.3 6 

112.1 5 

102.1 4 

102.1 0 

113.4 0 

151.2 1 

186.7 7 

164.3 7 

AT COMMERCIAL 

o!l 4 

-0.0 7 

0 . 0 

0.2 6 

0.4 4 

0.3 0 

0.2 9 

0.4 5 

0.1 6 

0.1 1 

0.1 0 

0.3 4 

-0.1 9 

0.3 7 

0.4 4 

0.6 7 

0.6 7 

0.5 5 

0.9 9 

0.0 9 

0.7 3 

0.8 3 

0.1 0 

0.6 3 

0.5 8 

0.8 0 

0.8 3 

0.7 8 

0.4 4 

0.4 1 

-0.1 4 

0.0 7 

0.2 0 

0.7 6 

0.4 8 

0.1 7 

0.3 9 

-0.0 5 

0.2 7 

0.1 0 

0.5 4 

0.0 9 

0.4 6 

0.5 3 

0.6 7 

0.9 0 

0.6 9 

0.7 8 

0.2 5 

0.5 8 

1.0 6 

0.2 6 

0.7 0 

0.8 2 

0.7 4 

0.9 3 

0.5 4 

0.9 6 

Dec. 

2 ^ 6 

3.2 6 

4.1 8 

5.4 8 

5.9 6 

5.7 2 

6.7 8 

7.8 7 

7.8 3 

8.8 7 

9.1 5 

9.4 7 

8.9 2 

9.7 9 

10.5 5 

10.0 5 

10.6 0 

11.4 1 

11.9 8 

12.4 1 

12.3 7 

11.9 6 

12.0 4 

12.2 7 

12.1 0 

12.1 4 

12.4 9 

13.0 1 

12.6 9 

12.1 8 

28i5 8 

26.6 2 

19.6 2 

35.4 4 

63.3 9 

72.6 8 

58.6 4 

45.2 5 

56.2 4 

63.8 8 

50.3 5 

44.4 6 

49.2 1 

42.4 9 

44.3 4 

45.9 8 

51.3 2 

63.8 1 

76.4 0 

94.6 9 

101.1 4 

106.5 6 

112.1 6 

102.8 7 

102.6 2 

116.0 0 

154.3 6 

184.7 0 

163.5 8 

o!6* 

-0.2 0 

0.1 4 

0.2 6 

0.5 6 

0.3 0 

0.2 3 

0.1 7 

0.2 2 

0.2 1 

0 . 0 

0.1 9 

-0.1 4 

0.2 8 

0.1 3 

0.5 8 

-0.0 4 

0.5 8 

0.7 7 

0.4 1 

0.4 6 

0.8 4 

0.0 5 

0.8 3 

0.7 7 

1.0 2 

0.8 5 

0.3 1 

0.3 3 

Quarterly 

IQ 

1.5 5 

2.4 9 

3.5 9 

4.4 1 

5.4 2 

5.9 1 

5.8 0 

7.1 9 

7.9 1 

8.1 6 

9.0 9 

9.2 2 

9.3 8 

9.1 2 

10.0 9 

10.3 7 

10.0 8 

10.8 6 

11.6 3 

12.2 1 

12.4 6 

12.2 2 

11.9 2 

12.1 5 

12.2 4 

11.9 6 

12.1 6 

12.71 . 

13.1 2 

12.5 9 

31.4 9 

27.8 1 

23.8 2 

20.9 7 

48.4 7 

65.9 5 

74.0 3 

52.0 0 

47.8 4 

58.1 9 

62.7 4 

44.8 4 

47.5 1 

45.5 9 

41.9 7 

44.7 9 

49.2 7 

53.9 7 

66.3 6 

82.1 4 

94.1 8 

102.8 0 

108.0 0 

109.0 0 

104.1 0 

103.8 7 

125.5 0 

164.7 5 

175.4 4 

... 

-o!o4 

-0.0 5 

0.3 4 

0.2 9 

0.3 7 

0.2 8 

0.2 9 

0.3 3 

0.1 1 

0.3 2 

0.6 4 

0.4 3 

-0.1 9 

0.4 4 

0.7 1 

0.5 7 

0.4 1 

0.6 7 

0.6 2 

0.8 1 

0.6 1 

0.4 3 

0.1 9 

1.3 6 

1.0 6 

0.6 1 

0.7 5 

0.5 7 

II Q III Q IV Q 

END OF PERIOD 

1.7 3 

2.8 3 

3.7 6 

4.8 0 

5.9 2 

5.6 9 

6.1 9 

7.4 5 

7.8 8 

8.4 8 

9.1 5 

9.2 8 

9.2 3 

9.2 8 

10.2 3 

10.1 6 

10.2 9 

11.0 4 

11.7 9 

12.3 8 

12.4 8 

12.1 4 

11.9 3 

12.3 0 

12.1 6 

11.7 8 

12.5 3 

12.8 9 

13.0 4 

12.1 5 

1.9 6 

2.8 7 

3.9 5 

5.0 3 

6.1 8 

5.6 8 

6.2 9 

7.6 8 

7.7 8 

8.7 4 

9.1 3 

9.3 8 

8.9 9 

9.7 7 

10.4 0 

10.1 3 

10.4 1 

11.2 6 

11.9 2 

12.2 7 

12.3 9 

12.0 6 

11.9 1 

12.2 7 

12.1 1 

12.0 9 

12.5 0 

12.9 9 

12.9 3 

12.1 7 

2.1 6 

3.2 6 

4.1 8 

5.4 8 

5.9 6 

5.7 2 

6.7 8 

7.8 7 

7.8 3 

8.8 7 

9.1 5 

9.4 7 

8.9 2 

9.7 9 

10.5 5 

10.0 5 

10.6 0 

11.4 1 

11.9 8 

12.4 1 

12.3 7 

11.9 6 

12.0 4 

12.2 7 

12.1 0 

12.1 4 

12.4 9 

13.0 1 

12.6 9 

12.1 8 

END OF PERIOD 

3o!3 2 

28.2 2 

20.1 8 

22.6 3 

56.8 0 

71.0 6 

72.8 9 

46.7 1 

49.1 0 

60.2 2 

59.9 9 

44.2 8 

48.4 6 

44.0 1 

42.7 1 

43.6 8 

50.6 2 

57.3 4 

69.3 2 

87.7 9 

97.1 9 

102.9 5 

111.5 8 

106.3 6 

100.7 3 

107.2 3 

136.2 6 

176.8 4 

168.7 6 

29.0 5 

28.5 3 

18.5 9 

31.0 6 

60.8 1 

74.3 7 

64.9 7 

44.8 2 

51.7 4 

63.7 2 

55.1 5 

43.6 4 

49.0 4 

44.0 1 

43.4 6 

43.8 0 

51.3 7 

60.7 6 

72.3 4 

93.1 5 

98.6 7 

103.4 0 

112.1 6 

103.6 4 

100.6 8 

110.9 6 

143.8 3 

188.7 6 

166.0 4 

AVERAGE FOR 

o!4 8 

-0.1 1 

0.0 9 

0.4 3 

0.2 8 

0.3 7 

0.2 3 

0.3 6 

0.2 2 

0.1 6 

0.1 9 

0.7 7 

0.3 1 

0.1 4 

0.5 1 

0.4 4 

0.5 8 

0.5 4 

0.5 5 

0.5 5 

0.9 3 

0.7 1 

0.3 3 

0.6 6 

1.0 3 

0.7 6 

0.8 2 

0.5 6 

1.0 2 

0.3 9 

0.0 7 

-0.0 9 

0.1 8 

0.5 5 

0.4 4 

0.1 9 

0.4 0 

0.1 8 

0.1 8 

0.2 1 

0.4 4 

0.0 3 

0.6 4 

0.4 0 

0.2 4 

0.4 8 

0.7 1 

0.7 4 

0.3 8 

0.8 6 

0.7 8 

-0.0 9 

0.9 9 

0.5 0 

0.9 3 

0.5 2 

0.4 6 

0.5 5 

28.5 8 

26.6 2 

19.6 2 

35.4 4 

63.3 9 

72.6 8 

58.6 4 

45.2 5 

56.2 4 

63.8 8 

50.3 5 

44.4 6 

49.2 1 

42.4 9 

44.3 4 

45.9 8 

51.3 2 

63.8 1 

76.4 0 

94.6 9 

101.1 4 

106.5 6 

112.1 6 

102.8 7 

102.6 2 

116.0 0 

154.3 6 

184.7 0 

163.5 8 

PERIOD 

o!l8 

-0.1 4 

0.0 7 

0.2 4 

0.5 9 

0.3 6 

0.2 3 

0.3 4 

0.1 1 

0.2 0 

0.0 7 

0.3 6 

-0.0 8 

0.3 7 

0.3 7 

0.6 4 

0.5 1 

0.6 1 

0.8 5 

0.2 5 

0.5 9 

0.9 1 

0.1 4 

0.7 2 

0.7 2 

0.8 5 

0.8 7 

0.5 4 

0.5 8 

Annual 

2 a 6 

3.2 6 

4.1 8 

5.4 8 

5.9 6 

5.7 2 

6.7 8 

7.8 7 

7.8 3 

1

 8.8 7 

9.1 5 

9.4 7 

8.9 2 

9.7 9 

10.5 5 

10.0 5 

10.6 0 

11.4 1 

11.9 8 

12.4 1 

! 12.3 7 

11.9 6 

12.0 4 

12.2 7 

12.1 0 

12.1 4 

12.4 9 

13.0 1 

12.6 9 

12.1 8 

28!5 8 

26.6 2 

19.6 2 

35.4 4 

63.3 9 

72.6 8 

58.6 4 

45.2 5 

56.2 4 

63.8 8 

50.3 5 

44.4 6 

49.2 1 

42.4 9 

44.3 4 

45.9 8 

51.3 2 

63.8 1 

76.4 0 

94.6 9 

101.1 4 

106.5 6 

112.1 6 

102.8 7 

102.6 2 

116.0 0 

154.3 6 

184.7 0 

163.5 8 

-0.0 6 

0 . 0 

0.3 0 

0.4 3 

0.3 9 

0.2 3 

0.3 5 

0.2 1 

0.1 6 

0.2 0 

0.5 5 

0.1 7 

0.2 4 

0.4 3 

0.5 1 

0.5 3 

0.5 7 

0.7 0 

0.4 5 

0.8 0 

0.7 5 

0.2 0 

0.6 4 

0.9 0 

0.9 0 

0.7 0 

0.5 8 

0.6 8 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956. . . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964,. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

-o'.n 0.1 7 

0.0 8 

0.9 5 

0.4 8 

0.2 5 

0.5 1 

0.3 8 

0.4 6 

0.1 2 

0.8 5 

0.4 3 

0.2 1 

0.7 1 

0.8 1 

0.6 5 

0.7 4 

0.7 5 

0.4 3 

0.5 8 

0.5 0 

0.3 0 

0.8 4 

1.1 1 

1.0 2 

0.9 5 

0.6 5 

o!63 

0.2 1 

0.2 7 

0.7 1 

0.5 3 

0.2 0 

0.4 1 

0.4 4 

0.3 8 

0.1 6 

0.6 6 

0.1 5 

0.2 5 

0.6 2 

0.6 5 

0.6 0 

0.5 7 

0.6 9 

0.3 1 

0.6 4 

0.7 5 

0.2 5 

0.7 0 

0.7 9 

1.1 6 

0.8 5 

0.3 9 

213. 2 

200. 3 

193. 8 

198. 4 

192. 4 

194. 7 

200. 0 

200. 3 

207. 9 

211. 3 

207. 0 

197. 9 

205. 0 

204. 1 

202. 5 

207. 4 

208. 2 

212. 1 

219. 6 

226. 4 

222. 9 

231. 0 

238. 4 

232. 3 

231. 5 

239. 0 

252. 1 

243. 2 

225. 9 

Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July 

104 . PERCENT CHANGE IN TOTAL LIQUID ASSETS 

0.0 4 

0.1 3 

0.3 9 

0 . 0 

0.5 1 

0.6 3 

0.2 8 

0.5 1 

0.5 1 

0.5 5 

0.3 8 

0.3 1 

0.3 2 

0.5 9 

0.5 6 

0.6 1 

0.5 6 

1.2 5 

0.5 5 

0.7 5 

0.7 0 

0.5 7 

0.1 9 

0.9 1 

1.1 9 

0.9 6 

0.9 2 

0.6 5 

-0.1 3 

0.1 8 

0.3 4 

0.2 1 

0.4 7 

0.8 8 

0.2 1 

0.0 3 

0.1 6 

0.6 1 

0.2 6 

0.6 1 

0.2 9 

0.3 3 

0.7 2 

0.6 5 

0.6 2 

0.0 4 

0.4 2 

0.6 4 

0.7 4 

0.5 3 

0.5 1 

0.9 2 

1.0 0 

0.9 9 

0.7 4 

0.6 1 

104 . PERC 

0.0 1 

0.2 5 

0.2 0 

0.7 4 

0.5 3 

0.2 4 

0.4 3 

0.4 2 

0.4 4 

0.2 2 

0.6 3 

0.2 4 

0.2 9 

0.6 0 

0.7 0 

0.5 9 

0.6 9 

0.6 5 

0.4 1 

0.6 3 

0.6 6 

0.2 5 

0.7 5 

0.9 3 

1.1 1 

0.9 3 

0.4 5 

105 . 

212J3 

200. 1 

194. 5 

198. 6 

189. 6 

195. 6 

200. 3 

200. 1 

208. 9 

211. 0 

205. 9 

198. 5 

205. 6 

203. 2 

203. 0 

207. 1 

208. 3 

212. 9 

219. 8 

225. 9 

224. 6 

231. 5 

238. 5 

230. 3 

233. 3 

240. 0 

250. 8 

241. 5 

224. 6 

0.0 4 

0.2 9 

0.1 3 

0.6 8 

0.6 0 

0.2 5 

0.4 0 

0.3 9 

0.5 0 

0.2 6 

0.5 7 

0.3 1 

0.3 6 

0.6 2 

0.6 9 

0.5 8 

0.7 4 

0.6 0 

0.5 4 

0.6 6 

0.5 7 

0.2 9 

0.8 4 

1.0 6 

1.0 3 

0.9 0 

0.5 7 

HONEY SU 

209. 8 

200. 5 

194. 6 

199. 1 

190. 1 

196. 3 

201. 0 

200. 6 

208. 6 

211. 1 

205. 6 

197. 7 

206. 6 

203. 1 

203. 5 

207. 2 

208. 7 

213. 3 

220. 3 

226. 4 

226. 3 

231. 5 

237. 6 

230. 7 

234. 4 

242. 0 

248. 5 

239. 8 

225. 3 

0 . 0 

0.2 2 

0.5 5 

0.2 5 

0.1 9 

0.7 7 

0 . 0 

0.5 7 

0 . 0 

0.2 7 

0.2 1 

0.7 5 

0.2 9 

0.5 4 

0.6 9 

0.8 2 

0.5 3 

0.5 7 

0.6 7 

0.4 7 

0.5 2 

0.5 4 

0.5 6 

0.8 9 

0.9 9 

0.9 6 

1.1 2 

0.6 6 

(PERCENT) 

-0.1 3 

0.3 1 

0.3 8 

0.3 3 

0.3 1 

0.5 8 

0.4 9 

0.8 7 

0.2 2 

0.3 0 

0.2 9 

0.6 3 

-0.0 3 

0.6 9 

0.4 0 

0.7 7 

0.6 9 

0.6 2 

0.4 0 

0.8 7 

0.7 3 

0.2 2 

0.2 9 

1.1 2 

1.0 3 

1.1 6 

0.7 0 

0.9 9 

0.0 9 

0.1 7 

0.3 4 

0.4 9 

0.6 2 

0.4 7 

0.0 7 

0.5 9 

0.1 9 

0.2 4 

0.3 5 

0.5 2 

0.1 1 

0.5 3 

0.6 9 

0.7 0 

0.6 5 

0.7 9 

0.2 3 

0.8 8 

0.7 7 

0.0 8 

0.2 2 

1.0 8 

0.9 8 

0.9 3 

0.6 2 

1.1 3 

ENT CHANGE IN TOTAL LIQUI 

o!l 2 

0.3 6 

0.1 2 

0.5 2 

0.7 1 

0.2 0 

0.3 6 

0.2 9 

0.5 1 

0.2 7 

0.5 7 

0.3 2 

0.4 3 

0.6 6 

0.6 9 

0.5 9 

0.6 5 

0.5 6 

0.6 1 

0.6 6 

0.5 4 

0.3 8 

0.9 0 

1.0 8 

0.9 8 

0.9 0 

0.6 4 

(PERCENT) 

-o!o6 

0.2 1 

0.4 2 

0.2 1 

0.3 6 

0.7 5 

0.2 0 

0.4 3 

0.1 7 

0.4 3 

0.2 7 

0.6 1 

0.2 4 

0.5 0 

0.6 3 

0.7 2 

0.5 9 

0.5 1 

0.5 2 

0.6 4 

0.6 6 

0.4 9 

0.4 4 

0.9 4 

1.0 3 

1.0 0 

0.8 9 

0.7 0 

-0.0 5 

0.2 3 

0.4 2 

0.3 1 

0.3 5 

0.6 7 

0.2 1 

0.5 8 

0.1 3 

0.3 3 

0.2 7 

0.6 5 

0.1 5 

0.5 5 

0.6 0 

0.7 5 

0.6 2 

0.5 3 

0.4 6 

0.7 0 

0.6 7 

0.3 5 

0.4 0 

1.0 0 

1.0 0 

1.0 3 

0.8 3 

0.8 4 

PPLY Ml (DEMAND DEPOSITS 

(BILLIONS 

... 211. 4 

197. 2 

194. 6 

200. 2 

190. 2 

196. 1 

201. 2 

200.2 . 

209. 0 

211. 3 

204. 9 

198. 1 

206. 8 

202. 4 

204. 3 

207. 3 

209. 5 

213. 5 

220. 3 

227. 2 

224. 9 

232. 2 

237. 1 

231. 1 

235. 5 

243. 2 

247. 9 

239. 6 

224. 7 

212. 8 

195. 3 

195. 1 

200. 1 

190. 2 

196. 7 

201. 3 

201. 4 

210. 3 

210. 1 

204. 7 

198. 8 

207. 3 

201. 7 

204. 8 

207. 2 

210. 2 

214. 7 

220. 1 

226. 8 

227. 0 

233. 8 

237. 0 

230. 8 

236. 8 

243. 4 

249. 4 

237. 7 

225. 9 

OF DOLLA 

21214 

193. 9 

194. 6 

199. 9 

191. 3 

197. 1 

200. 7 

201. 7 

210. 4 

209. 6 

203. 7 

200. 2 

207. 1 

201. 7 

205. 2 

207. 6 

210. 5 

215. 1 

220. 4 

226. 7 

228. 0 

234. 6 

236. 4 

230. 5 

237. 2 

244. 1 

249. 9 

236. 8 

226. 7 

0.1 3 

0.1 7 

0.2 9 

0.5 3 

0.5 0 

0.6 8 

0.3 5 

0.7 2 

0.0 6 

0.4 8 

0.1 5 

0.8 7 

0.4 0 

0.5 3 

0.7 7 

0.6 3 

0.5 0 

0.6 7 

0.1 9 

0.7 5 

0.8 0 

-0.0 8 

0.8 3 

0.9 1 

0.9 7 

0.7 8 

0.6 3 

0.9 5 

D ASSETS, 

o!oi 

0.2 2 

0.3 8 

0.4 0 

0.4 2 

0.5 9 

0.2 4 

0.7 0 

0.1 5 

0.3 0 

0.2 7 

0.6 5 

0.1 4 

0.5 8 

0.6 1 

0.7 3 

0.6 2 

0.6 8 

0.3 5 

0.7 9 

0.7 2 

0.1 8 

0.4 0 

1.0 3 

1.0 0 

0.9 9 

0.7 3 

0.9 7 

Aug. Sept. 

MONTHLY DATA 

0.1 8 

0.1 3 

0.0 8 

0.3 7 

0.5 7 

0.4 3 

0.4 1 

0.4 6 

0.2 2 

0.3 0 

0.6 4 

U.2 7 

0.4 2 

0.3 5 

0.7 5 

0.8 0 

0.5 2 

0.6 7 

0.2 6 

0.8 3 

0.8 7 

0.1 7 

0.7 3 

0.7 8 

0.9 9 

1.0 8 

0.5 0 

0.7 3 

0.1 3 

0.0 9 

0.0 4 

0.6 5 

0.6 1 

0.1 1 

0.4 1 

0.7 5 

0.5 3 

0.1 5 

0.4 6 

0.1 1 

0.5 0 

0.3 5 

0.3 9 

0.6 2 

0.8 8 

0.7 7 

0.5 4 

0.8 1 

0.7 0 

0.4 5 

0.6 4 

0.6 4 

0.9 7 

0.6 9 

0.4 0 

0.6 9 

SMOOTHED DATA ' 

o!68 

0.1 9 

0.2 9 

0.4 6 

0.5 2 

0.5 5 

0.2 9 

0.6 6 

0.1 6 

0.3 4 

0.3 2 

0.6 1 

0.2 3 

0.5 3 

0.6 8 

0.7 0 

0.5 8 

0.7 0 

0.2 5 

0.8 3 

0.7 9 

0.0 6 

0.5 2 

0.9 8 

0.9 9 

0.9 4 

0.6 2 

0.9 8 

PLUS CURRENCY) IN 

RS) 

211* 1 

192. 3 

196. 3 

199. 3 

192. 3 

196. 5 

200. 9 

202. 8 

210. 7 

208. 5 

203. 2 

200. 3 

208. 0 

202. 9 

204. 7 

207. 2 

210. 7 

216. 5 

221. 2 

225. 5 

229. 0 

234. 6 

235. 8 

230. 4 

237. 7 

245. 2 

250. 4 

236. 2 

225. 4 

210. 2 

192. 2 

195. 9 

198. 8 

193. 5 

197. 1 

200. 5 

203. 6 

211. 0 

207. 9 

202. 8 

201. 1 

207. 2 

203. 5 

205. 1 

206. 5 

210. 5 

217. 6 

221. 9 

224. 0 

229. 4 

235. 1 

234. 6 

231. 3 

238. 2 

246. 8 

246. 7 

233. 6 

225. 6 

0.1 4 

0.1 4 

0.1 9 

0.4 9 

0.5 6 

0.4 7 

0.3 3 

0.6 2 

0.2 1 

0.3 2 

0.4 0 

0.4 8 

0.3 7 

0.4 4 

0.6 9 

0.7 0 

0.5 9 

0.7 1 

0.2 8 

0.8 1 

0.8 0 

0.1 2 

0.6 6 

0.8 5 

0.9 8 

0.8 9 

0.5 5 

0.8 6 

197 2 DO 

206. 9 

192. 7 

195. 3 

198. 0 

193. 6 

198. 5 

200. 0 

204. 3 

210. 4 

208. 4 

202. 1 

201. 8 

206. 2 

203. 8 

205. 5 

205. 4 

211. 2 

218. 4 

223. 0 

224. 8 

230. 2 

235. 9 

234. 2 

232. 1 

238. 6 

247. 8 

245. 5 

231. 5 

225. 2 

Oct. 

0.0 4 

0.1 7 

0.2 9 

0.6 1 

0.5 7 

0.1 8 

0.5 1 

0.5 8 

0.2 8 

0.0 3 

0.5 8 

0.1 6 

0.3 1 

0.7 2 

0.3 7 

0.4 9 

0.6 7 

0.8 4 

0.2 4 

0.6 9 

0.7 6 

0.2 0 

0.7 3 

0.7 4 

1.0 8 

0.5 8 

0.6 9 

0.9 7 

o!l3 

0.1 3 

0.1 4 

0.5 3 

0.5 7 

0.3 2 

0.4 2 

0.6 2 

0.3 1 

0.2 3 

0.4 9 

0.3 0 

0.4 2 

0.4 4 

0.5 7 

0.6 6 

0.6 6 

0.7 3 

0.3 4 

0.7 9 

0.7 8 

0.2 3 

0.7 2 

0.7 5 

0.9 9 

0.8 2 

0.5 2 

0.7 9 

LLARS 

206. 2 

192. 9 

196. 1 

197. 6 

193. 4 

198. 6 

199. 8 

205. 8 

210. 8 

207. 3 

201. 7 

202. 7 

205. 0 

202. 9 

206. 2 

206. 4 

211. 9 

218. 9 

224. 4 

223. 1 

230. 6 

235. 9 

233. 6 

231. 3 

238. 4 

248. 6 

244. 9 

230. 6 

223. 6 

Nov. 

0.0 4 

U.1 7 

0.2 1 

0.6 8 

0.5 6 

0.1 4 

0.4 1 

0.4 2 

0.3 7 

0.1 2 

0.7 7 

0.0 8 

0.2 9 

0.6 7 

0.7 1 

0.8 0 

0.6 1 

0.6 9 

0.3 3 

0.6 3 

0.8 5 

0.2 6 

0.7 2 

0.7 1 

1.2 3 

0.8 6 

0.2 6 

1.3 5 

0."09 

0.1 4 

0.1 6 

0.5 9 

0.5 8 

0.1 9 

0.4 4 

0.5 9 

0.3 7 

0.1 3 

0.5 8 

0.1 5 

0.3 9 

0.5 3 

0.5 0 

0.6 4 

0.7 0 

0.7 6 

0.3 6 

0.7 4 

0.7 7 

0.2 9 

0.7 0 

0.7 1 

1.0 5 

0.7 5 

0.4 9 

0.9 0 

205^4 

193. 5 

195. 9 

197. 0 

194. 0 

199. 3 

200. 4 

206. 4 

210. 0 

207. 6 

200. 7 

203. 6 

204. 8 

202. 5 

207. 0 

207. 1 

213. 1 

219. 3 

224. 6 

223. 2 

230. 6 

236. 9 

233. 1 

231. 0 

238. 4 

249. 3 

245. 0 

229. 7 

224. 1 

Dec. 

0.0 9 

0.3 0 

0.4 2 

0.6 8 

0.5 2 

0.2 5 

0.3 1 

0.4 1 

0.4 0 

0.3 0 

0.5 1 

0.0 8 

0.2 1 

0.4 9 

0.6 4 

0.4 4 

0.4 1 

0.5 8 

0.2 7 

0.6 5 

0.7 7 

0.2 4 

0.6 1 

0.7 4 

1.2 1 

0.9 4 

0.2 4 

0.7 5 

0.0 6 

0.1 8 

0.2 4 

0.6 5 

0.5 6 

0.1 7 

0.4 3 

0.5 3 

0.3 7 

0.1 2 

0.6 1 

0.1 1 

0.3 2 

0.6 0 

0.5 3 

0.6 1 

0.6 4 

0.7 3 

0.3 2 

0.6 8 

0.7 8 

0.2 7 

0.6 9 

0.7 1 

1.1 3 

0.7 5 

0.4 2 

1.0 1 

\ .[ 

202! l 

194. 0 

197. 1 

194. 6 

193.9 1 

199. 6 

200. 5 

206.8 1 

210. 6 

207. 2 

199. 7 

203. 8 

204. 0 

202. 2 

207. 2 

207. 8 

212. 0 

219. 1 

225.0 1 

223. 3 

230. 8 

237. 9 

231.7 1 

231. 0 

238. 0 

251. 5 

244. 7 

228. 4 

222. 4 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

0.0 6 

0.3 0 

0.1 0 

0.6 4 

0.6 6 

0.2 5 

0.3 5 

0.3 5 

0.5 4 

0.2 5 

0.5 9 

0.3 5 

0.3 8 

0.6 6 

0.6 9 

0.6 1 

0.6 8 

0.5 7 

0.6 1 

0.6 7 

0.5 3 

0.3 3 

0.8 9 

1.1 0 

0.9 9 

0.8 7 

0.6 4 

0*.03 

0.2 5 

U.2 0 

0.7 1 

0.5 5 

0.2 3 

0.4 1 

0.4 2 

0.4 4 

0.2 1 

0.6 2 

0.2 3 

0.3 0 

0.6 1 

0.6 8 

0.5 9 

0.6 7 

0.6 5 

0.4 2 

0.6 4 

0.6 6 

0.2 6 

0.7 6 

0.9 3 

1.1 0 

0.8 9 

0.4 7 

211. 8 

200. 3 

194. 3 

198. 7 

190. 7 

195. 5 

200. 4 

200. 3 

208. 5 

211. 1 

206. 2 

198. 0 

205. 7 

203. 5 

203. 0 

207. 2 

208. 4 

212. 8 

219. 9 

226. 2 

224. 6 

231. 3 

238. 2 

231. 1 

233. 1 

240. 3 

250. 5 

241. 5 

225. 3 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

-0.0 1 

0.2 3 

0.4 2 

0.3 6 

0.3 7 

0.6 1 

0.1 9 

0.6 8 

0.1 4 

0.2 7 

0.2 8 

0.6 3 

0.1 2 

0.5 9 

0.5 9 

0.7 6 

0.6 2 

0.6 6 

0.4 3 

0.7 4 

0.6 7 

0.2 8 

0.3 6 

1.0 3 

1.0 0 

1.0 2 

0.8 1 

0.9 3 

0.1 5 

0.1 3 

0.1 4 

0.5 2 

0.5 6 

0.4 1 

0.3 9 

0.6 4 

0.2 7 

0.3 1 

0.4 2 

0.4 2 

0.4 4 

0.4 1 

0.6 4 

0.6 8 

0.6 3 

0.7 0 

0.3 3 

0.8 0 

0.7 9 

0.1 8 

0.7 3 

0.7 8 

0.9 8 

0.8 5 

0.5 1 

0.7 9 

AVERAGE FOR 

o!i9 

0.4 0 

0.2 1 

0.4 1 

0.7 1 

0.2 0 

0.4 6 

0.2 0 

0.4 2 

0.2 7 

0.6 1 

0.2 4 

0.4 9 

0.6 3 

0.7 2 

0.6 0 

0.5 6 

0.5 1 

0.6 5 

0.6 6 

0.4 6 

0.4 1 

0.9 5 

1.0 4 

1.0 0 

0.8 7 

0.7 3 

0.0 8 

0.1 8 

0.2 9 

0.4 5 

0.5 0 

0.5 4 

0.2 9 

0.6 6 

0.1 7 

0.3 2 

0.3 3 

0.5 8 

0.2 5 

0.5 2 

0.6 6 

0.7 1 

0.6 0 

0.7 0 

0.2 9 

0.8 1 

0.7 7 

0.1 2 

0.5 3 

0.9 5 

0.9 9 

0.9 4 

0.6 3 

0.9 4 

AVERAGE FOR 

212Y2 

195. 5 

194. 8 

200. 1 

190. 6 

196. 6 

201. 1 

201. 1 

209. 9 

210. 3 

204. 4 

199. 0 

207. 1 

201. 9 

204. 8 

207. 4 

210. 1 

214. 4 

220. 3 

226. 9 

226. 6 

233. 5 

236. 8 

230. 8 

236. 5 

243. 6 

249. 1 

238. 0 

225. 8 

209. 4 

192. 4 

195. 8 

198. 7 

193. 1 

197. 4 

200. 5 

203. 6 

210. 7 

208. 3 

202. 7 

201. 1 

207. 1 

203. 4 

205. 1 

206. 4 

210. 8 

217. 5 

222. 0 

224. 8 

229. 5 

235. 2 

234. 9 

231. 3 

238. 2 

246. 6 

247. 5 

233. 8 

225. 4 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

0.0 6 

0.2 1 

0.3 1 

0.6 6 

0.5 5 

0.1 9 

0.4 1 

0.4 7 

0.3 5 

0.1 r 

0.6 2 

0.1 1 

0.2 7 

0.6 3 

0.5 7 

0.5 8 

0.5 6 

0.7 0 

0.2 8 

0.6 6 

0.7 9 

0.2 3 

0.6 9 

0.7 3 

1.1 7 

0.7 9 

0.4 0 

1.0 2 

PERIOD 

o!o9 

0.1 5 

0.1 8 

0.5 9 

0.5 7 

0.2 3 

0.4 3 

0.5 8 

0.3 5 

0.1 6 

0.5 6 

0.1 9 

0.3 8 

0.5 2 

0.53 J 

0.6 4 

0.6 7 

0 . 7 4 j 

0.3 4 

0.7 4 

0.7 8 

0.2 6 

0.7 0 

0.7 2 

1.0 6 

0.7 7 

0.4 8 

0.9 0 

PERIOD 

204 ".6 

193. 5 

196. 4 

196. 4 

193. 8 

199. 2 

200. 2 

206. 3 

210. 5 

207. 4 

200.7 ) 

203. 4 

204. 6 

202. 5 

206. 8 

207. 1 

212. 3 

219. 1 

224. 7 

223. 2 

230. 7 

236. 9 

232. 8 

231. 1 

238. 3 

249. 8 

244. 9 

229. 6 

223. 4 

Annual 

0.1 6 

0.2 9 

0.4 1 

0.5 3 

0.4 7 

0.3 1 

0.5 4 

0.2 8 

0.3 2 

0.3 9 

0.4 4 

0.3 0 

0.5 0 

0.6 2 

0.6 8 

0.6 1 

0.6 9 

0.4 0 

0.7 0 

0.7 3 

0.3 1 

0.5 3 

0.8 6 

1.0 6 

0.9 1 

0.6 5 

0.8 4 

0."l4 

0.2 8 

0.3 6 

0.5 5 

0.5 1 

0.2 9 

0.5 3 

0.2 8 

0.3 4 

0.3 4 

0.5 0 

0.2 7 

0.4 6 

0.6 1 

0.6 9 

0.6 1 

0.6 7 

0.4 5 

0.6 5 

0.7 1 

0.3 8 

0.4 8 

0.8 5 

1.0 0 

0.9 5 

0.7 2 

0.7 6 

209^5 

195. 4 

195. 3 

198. 5 

192. 0 

197. 2 

200. 6 

202. 8 

209. 9 

209. 3 

203. 5 

200. 4 

206. 1 

202. 8 

204. 9 

207. 0 

210. 4 

216. 0 

221. 7 

225. 3 

227. 9 

i 234. 2 

235. 7 

231. 1 

236. 5 

245. 1 

248. 0 

235. 7 

225. 0 

'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 

104 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

106 . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

195U.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. 

MONEY SUPPLY M2 

278. 0 

263. 0 

256. 7 

263. 2 

252. 8 

255. 4 

265. 0 

269. 9 

283. 8 

289. 1 

286. 5 

282. 0 

300. 6 

300. 1 

305. 7 

320. 6 

336. 2 

351. 4 

373. 3 

398. 7 

405. 9 

431. 8 

451. 5 

433. 9 

449. 4 

484. 4 

519. 2 

515. 7 

492. 2 

1.30 8 

1.34 9 

1.40 7 

1.45 7 

1.58 3 

1.60 9 

1.66 4 

1.64 4 

1.63 3 

1.73 1 

1.80 1 

1.82 3 

1.78 1 

1.87 3 

1.85 2 

1.86 1 

1.85 9 

1.84 6 

1.85 6 

1.85 2 

1.90 8 

1.85 4 

1.86 0 

1.97 0 

1.94 3 

1.89 2 

1.88 8 

1.91 7 

1.95 1 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.4 4 

3.0 0 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.0 0 

4.3 4 

4.0 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.0 0 

5.9 6 

6.0 0 

6.9 5 

8.5 0 

6.2 9 

1 5.1 8 

6.0 0 

9.7 3 

10.0 5 

277. 2 

263. 3 

257. 6 

263. 5 

248. 8 

256. 9 

265. 8 

270. 2 

284. 9 

288. 6 

285. 8 

284. 8 

301. 0 

298. 4 

307. 6 

321. 8 

337. 4 

353. 4 

375. 9 

398. 1 

409. 2 

433. 6 

451. 4 

430. 5 

455. 8 

487. 4 

518. 1 

513. 8 

492. 3 

1.30 2 

1.34 5 

1.40 1 

1.46 9 

1.59 7 

1.62 5 

1.67 3 

1.64 5 

1.63 2 

1.74 1 

1.81 4 

1.79 9 

1.79 1 

1.88 1 

1.84 9 

1.86 3 

1.84 3 

1.84 6 

1.84 3 

1.86 1 

1.89 2 

1.86 3 

1.86 7 

1.98 7 

1.91 9 

1.89 8 

1.90 1 

1.91 0 

1.94 3 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.0 0 

4.0 0 

4.0 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.0 0 

5.7 5 

6.0 0 

7.0 0 

8.5 0 

5.8 8 

4.7 5 

6.0 2 

9.2 1 

8.9 6 

Mar. 

(DEMAND 

LARGE 

273! 7 

264. 0 

257. 7 

263. 8 

249. 2 

258. 0 

266. 8 

271. 4 

284. 7 

289. 0 

286. 2 

285. 3 

302. 0 

298. 3 

308. 4 

323. 6 

338. 8 

354. 3 

377. 7 

399. 2 

412. 9 

434. 4 

450. 1 

431. 3 

461. 2 

491. 5 

516. 0 

511. 2 

494. 1 

108 . 

1.29 5 

1.37 4 

1.40 9 

1.49 9 

1.60 9 

1.62 4 

1.68 0 

1.63 4 

1.64 7 

1.74 5 

1.81 5 

1.79 3 

1.80 0 

1.88 5 

1.85 0 

1.86 4 

1.84 0 

1.84 9 

1.84 4 

1.86 4 

1.88 8 

1.87 4 

1.87 7 

1.98 9 

1.90 6 

1.89 0 

1.91 1 

1.91 0 

1.93 9 

1 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.0 0 

3.1 3 

3.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.0 0 

4.0 0 

4.0 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.3 5 

5.7 1 

6.0 0 

7.2 4 

8.3 9 

5.4 8 

4.7 5 

6.30 

8.83 

7.93 

Apr. 

DEPOSITS 

May June July Aug. 

AND CURRENCY PLUS TIME DEPOSITS 

CD'S ) IN 197 2 DOLLARS 

27^ 5 

259. 9 

257. 9 

265. 1 

249. 4 

257. 9 

267. 2 

271. 9 

285. 5 

289. 4 

285. 7 

287. 0 

302. 8 

297. 7 

310. 3 

325. 4 

341. 1 

355. 4 

378. 5 

401. 3 

413. 8 

435. 9 

449. 2 

432. 9 

464. 6 

494. 0 

515. 4 

511. 7 

494. 4 

277. 1 

257. 4 

258. 6 

265. 0 

249. 5 

258. 8 

267. 7 

273. 6 

286. 8 

288. 1 

286. 1 

288. 9 

303. 4 

297. 2 

311. 9 

325. 8 

342. 7 

357. 5 

379. 0 

402. 4 

418. 3 

437. 7 

448. 7 

432. 9 

467. 5 

496. 2 

517. 7 

507. 9 

497. 8 

RATIO, PERSONAL 

1.26 7 

1.38 3 

1.40 0 

1.46 0 

1.62 4 

1.61 7 

1.67 7 

1.62 9 

1.65 9 

1.75 6 

1.81 4 

1.77 5 

1.80 9 

1.89 7 

1.84 4 

1.86 3 

1.83 5 

1.85 7 

1.84 8 

1.85 6 

1.88 4 

1.87 3 

1.88 4 

2.02 0 

1.89 6 

1.89 0 

1.91 5 

1.91 3 

1.93 7 

276. 6 

255. 9 

258. 3 

264. 5 

250. 8 

259. 4 

267. 2 

274. 3 

287. 4 

287. 7 

285. 2 

291. 6 

303. 4 

297. 6 

313. 2 

327. 7 

343. 6 

359. 3 

380. 4 

403. 0 

421. 1 

439. 0 

447. 9 

434. 3 

469. 4 

499. 6 

518. 8 

506. 8 

500. 7 

INCOME TC 

(RATIO) 

1.26 4 

1.39 4 

1.39 4 

1.45 6 

1.62 8 

1.62 9 

1.68 0 

1.62 0 

1.66 7 

1.75 9 

1.81 7 

1.77 0 

1.81 5 

1.90 6 

1.84 7 

1.86 3 

1.83 4 

1.85 6 

1.85 8 

1.85 6 

1.86 7 

1.87 8 

1.89 2 

1.99 8 

1.88 6 

1.88 7 

1.90 9 

1.92 7 

1.93 1 

1.27 9 

1.42 3 

1.38 1 

1.45 9 

1.63 3 

1.63 2 

1.68 5 

1.61 7 

1.67 3 

1.76 6 

1.82 9 

1.76 4 

1.82 2 

1.90 3 

1.85 8 

1.86 1 

1.83 9 

1.85 5 

1.85 8 

1.86 6 

1.86 1 

1.87 9 

1.89 8 

1.98 6 

1.91 1 

1.85 3 

1.90 8 

1.93 2 

1.95 2 

0 9 . AVERAGE PRIME RATE Cfl 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.0 3 

3.0 0 

3.0 0 

3.6 5 

4.0 0 

3.8 3 

4.0 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.5 0 

5.5 0 

6.2 0 

7.5 0 

8.0 0 

5.2 5 

4.9 8 

6.6 0 

10.0 2 

7.5 0 

(PERCENT) 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.0 0 

3.7 5 

4.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.2 3 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.5 0 

5.5 0 

6.5 0 

7.5 0 

8.0 0 

5.4 2 

5.0 0 

7.0 1 

11.2 5 

7.4 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.0 0 

3.7 5 

4.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.5 2 

5.5 0 

6.5 0 

8.2 3 

8.0 0 

5.5 0 

5.0 4 

7.4 9 

11.5 4 

7.0 7 

Sept. Oct. Nov. 

AT COMMERCIAL BANKS OTHER 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

275! l 

253. 6 

260. 5 

263. 3 

252. 3 

258. 7 

267. 9 

276. 5 

287. 8 

286. 5 

285. 3 

293. 0 

304. 2 

300. 2 

313. 4 

328. 3 

344. 4 

361. 6 

383. 2 

403. 1 

424. 0 

439. 3 

445. 0 

436. 7 

470. 6 

502. 2 

520. 6 

506. 4 

500. 1 

274. 5 

253. 7 

260. 1 

262. 2 

254. 0 

259. 8 

267. 8 

278. 0 

288. 2 

286. 3 

285. 1 

294. 5 

303. 3 

301. 7 

314. 6 

328. 1 

345. 4 

364. 0 

386. 0 

402. 1 

425. 9 

441. 5 

441. 8 

439. 9 

471. 6 

506. 3 

515. 2 

502. 3 

500. 8 

MONEY SUPPLY M2 

1.27 9 

1.42 6 

1.37 2 

1.48 3 

1.62 2 

1.62 0 

1.67 8 

1.61 1 

1.69 4 

1.75 9 

1.83 1 

1.78 9 

1.81 7 

1.89 2 

1.85 9 

1.86 3 

1.83 3 

1.85 3 

1.85 6 

1.87 3 

1.85 7 

1.88 5 

1.91 7 

1.98 0 

1.88 1 

1.87 1 

1.91 3 

1.94 7 

1.93 4 

ARGED BY 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.0 0 

3.7 5 

4.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.7 5 

5.5 0 

6.5 0 

8.5 0 

8.0 0 

5.9 0 

5.2 5 

8.3 0 

11.9 8 

7.1 5 

1.27 6 

1.44 1 

1.38 5 

1.50 9 

1.63 3 

1.65 8 

1.67 0 

1.61 2 

1.69 5 

1.78 6 

1.83 5 

1.77 7 

1.80 8 

1.88 0 

1.85 3 

1.86 6 

1.83 4 

1.85 5 

1.85 2 

1.88 2 

1.85 3 

1.88 1 

1.93 6 

1.97 1 

1.88 5 

1.87 1 

1.91 8 

1.95 2 

1.94 9 

270. 5 

254. 3 

259. 4 

261. 0 

254. 2 

261. 8 

267. 7 

279. 0 

287. 7 

287. 2 

284. 9 

295. 5 

302. 3 

303. 2 

315. 4 

327. 7 

347. 2 

366. 2 

388. 6 

403. 4 

427. 8 

444. 2 

440. 6 

442. 4 

473. 7 

508. 8 

515. 3 

498. 3 

500. 7 

1.37 0 

1.44 3 

1.40 7 

1.52 2 

1.62 5 

1.66 5 

1.66 8 

1.61 9 

1.70 3 

1.78 9 

1.82 9 

1.78 2 

1.81 2 

1.87 3 

1.85 0 

1.86 9 

1.83 6 

1.85 1 

1.88 6 

1.88 8 

1.84 6 

1.87 7 

1.94 4 

1.96 6 

1.88 2 

1.86 3 

1.93 0 

1.96 1 

1.95 6 

BANKS ® 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.2 3 

3.8 4 

4.4 2 

3.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.8 5 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.8 8 

5.5 0 

6.5 0 

8.5 0 

8.0 0 

6.0 0 

5.2 7 

9.2 3 

12.0 0 

7.6 6 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.0 8 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

4.0 0 

4.5 0 

3.8 3 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

6.0 0 

5.5 0 

6.4 0 

8.5 0 

7.8 3 

6.0 0 

5.5 0 

9.8 6 

12.0 0 

7.8 8 

270. 1 

254. 6 

260. 4 

260. 0 

253. 8 

262. 1 

267. 9 

281. 1 

288. 2 

285. 8 

285. 3 

296. 6 

300. 8 

303. 0 

316. 9 

330. 3 

349. 2 

367. 7 

392. 0 

402. 2 

429. 6 

445. 4 

439. 1 

442. 9 

475. 7 

511. 3 

515. 7 

497. 9 

499. 8 

1.31 4 

1.44 9 

1.38 2 

1.53 9 

1.63 6 

1.66 7 

1.67 4 

1.62 2 

1.70 8 

1.80 6 

1.82 7 

1.78 0 

1.82 0 

1.87 2 

1.85 8 

1.86 1 

1.83 6 

1.84 3 

1.85 8 

1.89 7 

1.83 7 

1.87 3 

1.95 3 

1.94 8 

1.87 9 

1.88 2 

1.93 5 

1.96 3 

1.96 8 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.2 5 

2.6 2 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.4 0 

4.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.0 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

6.0 0 

5.5 0 

6.0 0 

8.5 0 

7.5 0 

5.9 1 

5.7 3 

9.9 4 

11.6 8 

7.9 6 

269. 2 

255. 8 

260. 1 

259. 2 

254. 4 

263. 4 

269. 2 

281. 8 

287. 6 

286. 4 

264. 6 

297. 8 

300. 9 

304. 0 

318. 4 

332. 3 

351. 8 

369. 4 

394. 1 

403. 1 

430. 4 

448. 0 

437. 9 

443. 7 

478. 4 

513. 4 

516. 3 

496. 4 

501. 9 

1.31 4 

1.44 3 

1.39 8 

1.55 0 

1.63 0 

1.65 5 

1.66 0 

1.63 1 

1.72 2 

1.80 1 

1.82 7 

1.79 1 

1.83 8 

1.86 1 

1.86 6 

1.85 8 

1.82 4 

1.84 3 

1.86 0 

1.90 4 

1.84 4 

1.86 7 

1.95 8 

1.93 9 

1.88 1 

1.89 2 

1.93 6 

1.95 2 

1.96 4 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.2 5 

2.7 5 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.0 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

6.0 0 

5.6 8 

6.2 0 

8.5 0 

7.2 8 

5.4 7 

5.7 5 

9.7 5 

10.8 3 

7.5 3 

Dec. 

THAN 

265. 4 

256. 7 

261. 6 

256. 0 

254. 3 

264. 0 

269. 7 

282. 3 

288. 4 

285. 8 

284. 1 

298. 2 

300. 1 

304. 5 

318. 6 

334. 4 

350. 7 

371. 0 

395. 7 

404. 3 

431. 1 

450. 5 

435. 4 

445. 6 

480. 2 

517. 4 

517. 0 

494. 1 

501. 1 

1.33 0 

1.42 8 

1.40 4 

1.58 1 

1.62 7 

1.66 2 

1.65 1 

1.63 3 

1.72 9 

1.80 8 

1.82 1 

1.79 6 

1.86 7 

1.84 5 

1.87 5 

1.85 5 

1.84 2 

1.85 4 

1.86 1 

1.90 1 

1.85 7 

1.86 2 

1.96 9 

1.93 8 

1.89 0 

1.88 8 

1.93 1 

1.95 8 

1.96 9 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.2 5 

2.8 5 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.0 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.9 2 

6.0 0 

6.0 0 

6.6 0 

8.5 0 

6.9 2 

5.2 5 

5.7 9 

9.7 5 

10.5 0 

7.2 6 

Quarterly 

IQ 

276J 3 

263. 4 

257. 3 

263. 5 

250. 3 

256. 8 

265. 9 

270. 5 

284. 5 

288. 9 

286. 2 

284. 0 

301. 2 

298. 9 

307. 2 

322. 0 

337. 5 

353. 0 

375. 6 

398. 7 

409. 3 

433. 3 

451. 0 

431. 9 

455. 5 

487. 8 

517. 8 

513. 6 

492. 9 

1.30 2 

1.35 6 

1.40 6 

1.47 5 

1.59 6 

1.61 9 

1.67 2 

1.64 1 

1.63 7 

1.73 9 

1.81 0 

1.80 5 

1.79 1 

1.88 0 

1.85 0 

1.86 3 

1.84 7 

1.84 7 

1.84 8 

1.85 9 

1.89 6 

1.86 4 

1.86 8 

1.98 2 

1.92 3 

1.89 3 

1.90 0 

1.91 2 

1.94 4 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.4 8 

3.0 0 

3.0 0 

3.2 1 

3.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.0 0 

4.1 1 

4.0 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.1 2 

5.8 1 

6.0 0 

7.0 6 

8.4 6 

5.8 8 

4.8 9 

6.1 1 

9.2 6 

8.9 8 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

276. 4 

257. 7 

258. 3 

264. 9 

249. 9 

258. 7 

267. 4 

273. 3 

286. 6 

288. 4 

285. 7 

289. 2 

303. 2 

297. 5 

311. 8 

326. 3 

342. 5 

357. 4 

379. 3 

402. 2 

417. 7 

437. 5 

448. 6 

433. 4 

467. 2 

496. 6 

517. 3 

508. 8 

497. 6 

273. 4 

253. 9 

260. 0 

262. 2 

253. 5 

260. 1 

267. 8 

277. 8 

287. 9 

286. 7 

285. 1 

294. 3 

303. 3 

301. 7 

314. 5 

328. 0 

345. 7 

363. 9 

385. 9 

402. 9 

425. 9 

441. 7 

442. 5 

439. 7 

472. 0 

505. 8 

517. 0 

502. 3 

500. 5 

AVERAGE FOR 

1.27 0 

1.40 0 

1.39 2 

1.45 8 

1.62 8 

1.62 6 

1.68 1 

1.62 2 

1.66 6 

1.76 0 

1.82 0 

1.77 0 

1.81 5 

1.90 2 

1.85 0 

1.86 2 

1.83 6 

1.85 6 

1.85 5 

1.85 9 

1.87 1 

1.87 7 

1.89 1 

2.00 1 

1.89 8 

1.87 7 

1.91 1 

1.92 4 

1.94 0 

1.30 8 

1.43 7 

1.38 8 

1.50 5 

1.62 7 

1.64 8 

1.67 2 

1.61 4 

1.69 7 

1.77 8 

1.83 2 

1.78 3 

1.81 2 

1.88 2 

1.85 4 

1.86 6 

1.83 4 

1.85 3 

1.86 5 

1.88 1 

1.85 2 

1.88 1 

1.93 2 

1.97 2 

1.88 3 

1.86 8 

1.92 0 

1.95 3 

1.94 6 

AVERAGE FOR 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.7 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.1 8 

3.0 0 

3.0 0 

3.7 2 

4.0 0 

3.6 1 

4.2 4 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.5 1 

5.5 0 

6.4 0 

7.7 4 

8.0 0 

5.3 9 

5.0 1 

7.0 3 

10.9 4 

7.3 2 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.9 2 

2.0 0 

2.0 3 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.1 6 

3.8 6 

4.3 1 

3.6 1 

4.6 7 

4.7 8 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

5.8 8 

5.5 0 

6.4 7 

8.5 0 

7.9 4 

5.9 7 

5.3 4 

9.1 3 

11.9 9 

7.5 6 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

268. 2 

255. 7 

260. 7 

258. 4 

254. 2 

263. 2 

268. 9 

281. 7 

288. 1 

286. 0 

284. 7 

297. 5 

300. 6 

303. 8 

318. 0 

332. 3 

350. 6 

369. 4 

393. 9 

403. 2 

430. 4 

448. 0 

43^. 5 

444. 1 

478. 1 

514. 0 

516. 3 

496. 1 

500. 9 

PERIOD 

1.31 9 

1.44 0 

1.395 j 

1.557 ! 

1.63 1 

1.66 1 

1.66 2 

1.62 9 

1.72 0 

1.80 5 

1.82 5 

1.78 9 

1.84 2 

1.85 9 

1.86 6 

1.85 8 

1.83 4 

1.84 7 

1.86 0 

1.90 1 

1.84 6 

1.86 7 

1.96 0 

1.94 2 

1.88 3 

1.88 7 

1.93 4 

1.95 8 

1.96 7 

PERIOD 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 8 

2.0 0 

2.0 0 

2.2 5 

2.7 4 

3.0 0 

3.2 5 

3.0 0 

3.4 7 

4.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.0 0 

5.0 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.6 4 

6.0 0 

5.7 3 

6.2 7 

8.5 0 

7.2 3 

5.5 4 

5.7 6 

9.8 1 

11.0 0 

7.5 8 

Annual 

273. 6 

257. 7 

259. 1 

262. 2 

252. 0 

259. 7 

267. 5 

275. 8 

286. 8 

287. 5 

285. 4 

291. 3 

302. 1 

300. 5 

312. 9 

327. 2 

344. 0 

360. 9 

383. 7 

401. 7 

420. 8 

440. 1 

444. 9 

437. 2 

468. 2 

501. 0 

517. 1 

505. 2 

498. 0 

1.30 0 

1.40 8 

1.39 5 

1.49 9 

1.62 1 

1.63 9 

1.67 2 

1.62 6 

1.68 0 

1.77 1 

1.82 2 

1.78 7 

1.81 5 

1.88 1 

1.85 5 

1.86 2 

1.83 8 

1.85 1 

1.85 7 

1.87 5 

1.86 6 

1.87 2 

1.91 3 

1.97 4 

1.89 7 

1.88 1 

1.91 6 

1.93 7 

1.94 9 

1.5 0 

1.5 0 

1.5 2 

1.8 5 

2.0 0 

2.0 7 

2.5 6 

3.0 0 

3.1 7 

3.0 5 

3.1 6 

3.7 7 

4.2 0 

3.8 3 

4.4 8 

4.8 2 

4.5 0 

! 4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 0 

4.5 4 

5.6 2 

5.6 3 

6.2 8 

7.9 5 

1 7.9 1 

5.7 0 

5.2 5 

1 8.0 2 

10.8 0 

7.8 6 

BCD 1977 105 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949 . . . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

0.3 8 

2.6 0 

2.5 8 

3.1 1 

-0.3 8 

1.2 5 

6.2 0 

2.6 5 

1.1 3 

-0.7 0 

2.5.8 

4.8 6 

3.6 0 

-4.1 5 

0.8 5 

0.6 4 

-0.2 3 

1.8 4 

0.6 4 

-1.3 7 

9.9 0 

9.1 4 

2.0 3 

6.0 4 

14.8 8 

-1.9 2 

-3.9 7 

-8.4 8 

23.7 0 

19.7 9 

-11.5 9 

0.0 7 

1.1 9 

2.7 6 

3.1 3 

0.6 4 

2.7 7 

1.3 7 

1.4 5 

6.4 7 

-0.7 8 

3.8 6 

3.7 4 

2.3 3 

0.8 0 

5.1 2 

4.8 2 

0.0 2 

2.2 6 

6.6 5 

7.8 6 

9.1 1 

6.8 4 

2.2 0 

5.4 4 

10.6 6 

5.9 9 

1.8 4 

14.1 1 

22.6 4 

12.0 6 

-1.7 5 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.9 7 

1.1 6 

1.0 9 

1.3 9 

1.6 9 

2.0 4 

1.2 1 

1.2 6 

2.4 6 

3.2 1 

2.6 0 

2.8 4 

4.4 4 

2.3 0 

| 2.7 5 

2.9 1 

3.5 3 

3.8 3 

4.6 0 

4.7 6 

5.0 8 

6.1 8 

7.9 1 

4.4 9 

3.4 0 

5.3 1 

7.7 6 

6.4 9 

Feb. 

-1.4 8 

0.7 9 

2.8 6 

-0.7 1 

-0.9 1 

1.0 4 

7.3 6 

0.1 1 

0.6 0 

0.7 7 

1.9 6 

2.0 5 

0.3 0 

-4.0 3 

0.1 9 

5.2 4 

-0.4 0 

1.5 6 

1.0 4 

3.1 7 

12.6 7 

10.1 5 

3.8 6 

3.1 4 

8.8 8 

12.2 9 

5.6 9 

6.5 2 

50.9 5 

1.0 4 

-39.7 1 

-0.1 6 

1.4 2 

2.7 2 

2.6 5 

1.3 7 

3.4 4 

0.7 9 

2.0 4 

5.2 8 

0.1 6 

5.0 2 

4.6 6 

3.0 8 

-1.6 4 

5.0 6 

5.9 6 

-0.7 2 

3.5 6 

6.1 0 

7.8 1 

8.4 4 

6.2 3 

-0.0 4 

9.5 2 

12.6 2 

5.8 8 

6.0 7 

12.8 2 

25.0 8 

13.1 5 

3.8 0 

Mar. Apr. May 

112 . NET CHANGE IN 

-1.2 6 

2.2 9 

5.2 3 

0.1 6 

-1.4 2 

-0.0 1 

5.5 6 

1.4 4 

1.8 4 

-0.3 4 

2.6 9 

8.7 4 

5.5 4 

-1.2 8 

2.8 4 

2.6 8 

1.7 4 

2.3 4 

1.5 0 

0.0 7 

11.3 4 

8.1 2 

6.8 3 

2.9 8 

8.3 5 

2.8 0 

1.7 0 

4.7 0 

41.0 0 

30.0 1 

-17.4 2 

11 

0.2 8 

1.1 3 

2.4 4 

3.3 1 

1.7 6 

3.1 6 

0.7 0 

1.3 1 

6.5 0 

-1.1 6 

6.8 5 

4.0 4 

2.5 1 

-1.7 0 

4.9 7 

5.4 1 

0.1 8 

4.0 0 

6.2 2 

7.7 6 

7.3 4 

7.4 3 

2.9 8 

7.7 0 

8.5 7 

3.1 0 

7.4 4 

16.6 7 

23.9 0 

8.5 0 

-3.1 9 

114 . DISCOUNT 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.9 9 

1.1 6 

1.1 2 

1.3 9 

1.5 7 

2.0 2 

0.9 8 

1.1 8 

2.3 7 

3.1 6 

1.5 6 

2.7 1 

3.9 5 

2.4 1 

2.7 5 

2.9 2 

3.5 3 

3.9 3 

4.6 7 

4.5 5 

4.9 7 

6.1 6 

7.1 6 

3.7 7 

3.1 8 

5.5 6 

7.0 6 

5.5 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

1.0 0 

1.1 6 

1.1 4 

1.4 2 

1.6 6 

2.0 8 

1.0 5 

1.3 4 

2.3 1 

3.1 4 

1.3 5 

2.8 5 

3.4 4 

2.4 2 

2.7 2 

2.9 0 

3.5 5 

3.9 4 

4.6 3 

4.2 9 

5.1 4 

6.0 8 

6.7 1 

3.3 2 

3.7 2 

6.0 5 

7.9 9 

5.5 4 

June July Aug. 

BANK LOANS TO BUSINESSES 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS 

-0.1 8 

2.9 2 

4.2 8 

1.2 2 

-3.0 7 

1.0 3 

6.0 0 

-0.2 3 

2.9 4 

-0.8 3 

1.6 0 

6.2 2 

3.8 5 

-2.0 9 

3.2 6 

2.4 0 

-0.3 8 

2.5 7 

2.4 8 

4.2 4 

7.6 8 

5.2 4 

4.8 5 

14.0 0 

16.7 6 

3.7 0 

-8.2 6 

10.3 1 

26.1 4 

52.2 1 

-22.7 3 

-0.1 4 

2.2 0 

1.0 3 

4.3 3 

-2.3 5 

1.0 4 

4.4 9 

0.8 0 

1.6 9 

-1.8 7 

4.4 0 

6.1 9 

1.7 6 

' -4.6 3 

5.7 7 

3.5 8 

-0.7 1 

1.7 8 

2.0 2 

3.9 4 

10.9 6 

10.2 6 

1.6 3 

2.0 9 

14.0 9 

5.6 5 

6.6 4 

4.7 2 

14.3 2 

20.4 2 

-22.7 0 

3 . NET CHANGE IN 

1.8 5 

1.9 7 

0.5 6 

2.7 7 

-2.9 5 

3.6 7 

2.3 2 

1.9 2 

-0.8 3 

-1.9 3 

4.5 6 

4.2 1 

4.6 0 

-1.0 7 

5.6 3 

5.0 4 

-0.7 8 

2.8 8 

1.3 7 

3.0 6 

6.1 1 

12.9 4 

4.3 4 

5.7 6 

13.0 1 

2.1 5 

-0.1 8 

-6.8 3 

13.0 7 

14.9 2 

-18.3 4 

CONSUMER 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS 

-0.1 8 

1.7 2 

2.6 2 

3.1 9 

2.6 3 

3.1 8 

-0.4 9 

2.7 8 

4.7 9 

0.3 4 

6.2 4 

3.6 2 

2.3 0 

-1.2 1 

5.4 1 

5.7 7 

-1.5 2 

5.9 5 

7.0 4 

6.5 3 

11.7 4 

5.5 3 

-0.2 4 

8.2 6 

12.2 3 

3.8 5 

8.5 2 

14.7 1 

18.4 0 

12.2 2 

0.2 0 

0.0 5 

1.5 5 

2.4 6 

2.3 8 

3.1 2 

3.7 3 

-0.4 7 

5.5 8 

4.0 1 

-0.5 6 

5.8 3 

2.6 2 

2.7 6 

-1.2 8 

5.3 0 

3.4 6 

0.3 6 

5.4 1 

5.9 9 

8.3 3 

10.3 3 

5.4 6 

1.6 6 

8.2 1 

12.7 1 

4.1 5 

6.8 0 

15.0 1 

20.2 7 

13.6 8 

-3.6 2 

0.2 0 

1.3 9 

2.4 0 

2.0 3 

2.6 8 

4.7 0 

-0.5 8 

6.8 9 

2.8 3 

0.2 6 

6.3 0 

2.1 6 

2.6 9 

-1.1 3 

5.8 3 

4.0 4 

0.7 4 

5.4 6 

6.7 7 

7.3 9 

7.7 6 

5.4 8 

4.2 7 

7.4 5 

10.4 8 

5.2 8 

6.3 5 

15.2 4 

19.6 4 

12.9 8 

5.3 8 

RATE ON NEW ISSUES OF 91 -

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

1.0 0 

1.1 6 

1.1 6 

1.5 2 

1.6 2 

2.1 8 

1.0 1 

1.6 2 

2.6 1 

3.1 1 

1 1.1 3 

i 2.9 6 

3.2 4 

2.3 3 

2.7 4 

2.9 1 

3.4 8 

3.9 3 

4.6 1 

3.8 5 

5.3 6 

6.1 5 

6.4 8 

3.7 8 

i 3.7 2 

6.2 9 

8.2 3 

5.6 9 

(PERCENT) 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

1.0 0 

1.1 5 

1.1 7 

1.5 8 

1.7 1 

2.2 0 

0.7 8 

1.4 9 

2.6 5 

3.0 4 

1.0 5 

2.8 5 

3.3 9 

2.2 9 

2.6 9 

2.9 2 

3.4 8 

3.9 0 

4.6 4 

3.6 4 

5.6 2 

6.0 8 

7.0 4 

4.1 4 

3.6 5 

6.3 5 

8.4 3 

5.3 2 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

1.0 0 

1.1 6 

1.1 7 

1.5 0 

1.7 0 

2.2 3 

0.6 5 

1.4 3 

2.5 3 

3.3 2 

0.8 8 

3.2 5 

2.6 4 

2.3 6 

2.7 2 

3.0 0 

3.4 8 

3.8 1 

4.5 4 

3.4 8 

5.5 4 

6.4 9 

6.7 4 

4.7 0 

3.8 7 

7.1 9 

8.1 4 

5.1 9 

OF DOLLARS) 

0.5 3 -0.2 4 

4.8 4 5.5 2 

1.5 7 2.9 9 

3.8 4 1.4 6 

-3.9 6 -2.0 8 

4.5 2 5.2 6 

1.3 3 1.3 0 

2.0 6 0.5 9 

0.3 7 1.8 7 

0.0 1 -10.1 6 

5.3 8 5.0 4 

4.1 5 3.2 8 

2.5 4 0.4 8 

-0.4 8 -1.1 8 

-0.1 9 5.1 6 

-0.2 2 -1.8 4 

0.6 8 1.4 3 

2.7 7 3.5 8 

1.5 8 2.1 0 

3.4 9 4.9 3 

4.2 5 12.8 0 

10.6 0 12.2 3 

3.9 6 0.6 1 

4.2 1 7.9 9 

6.1 7 9.9 5 

2.1 5 7.4 5 

-7.2 0 16.0 3 

1.1 0 7.0 0 

22.9 4 29.4 0 

44.5 4 14.1 7 

-7.3 2 -18.7 2 

Sept. 

0.6 4 

4.4 3 

2.7 7 

-0.5 5 

-0.2 3 

7.6 7 

1.2 4 

2.2 9 

-1.3 8 

-0.6 1 

3.7 6 

4.3 2 

1.0 7 

2.1 7 

2.2 8 

1.3 9 

1.0 0 

3.3 6 

3.5 3 

6.9 5 

12.0 2 

5.6 5 

3.9 4 

7.9 0 

12.0 6 

0.1 2 

20.4 2 

12.0 2 

6.0 2 

21.0 2 

2.8 0 

INSTALLMENT DEBT 

OF DOLLARS) 

0.1 7 0.0 6 

1.6 4 2.0 8 

2.0 3 1.9 8 

2.5 4 2.3 8 

2.4 4 2.7 6 

6.3 6 4.4 8 

-1.4 5 1.8 0 

4.4 4 2.5 8 

3.7 0 2.1 5 

0.7 4 0.2 9 

5.3 4 5.8 7 

1.8 5 2.8 9 

2.7 5 2.0 2 

-0.2 5 -0.5 2 

6.1 8 7.4 2 

3.5 8 2.9 3 

0.1 7 1.2 1 

4.7 4 4.7 3 

7.1 5 7.0 9 

7.12 - 6.3 5 

7.9 6 7.5 5 

6.2 8 4.8 0 

1.7 8 5.0 8 

7.7 0 7.0 4 

7.2 4 6.6 0 

6.3 6 5.4 4 

8.2 1 10.4 8 

12.6 2 15.8 2 

22.7 9 18.0 0 

13.3 3 15.5 2 

15.4 3 10.0 6 

0.2 9 

1.9 0 

1.8 7 

2.5 2 

2.8 8 

4.3 7 

1.5 0 

3.8 8 

1.9 1 

0.8 3 

6.1 3 

1.3 4 

1.8 2 

-0.6 0 

7.0 8 

3.5 6 

0.8 2 

3.2 9 

6.0 0 

8.1 8 

7.1 6 

2.8 9 

3.6 6 

5.9 5 

7.7 0 

6.4 1 

12.8 5 

14.8 9 

16.9 8 

9.0 7 

11.9 2 

DAY TREASURY BILLS <§) 

0.3 8 0.3 8 

0.3 8 0.3 8 

0.6 4 0.7 4 

1.0 0 1.0 3 

0.9 8 1.0 2 

1.1 7 1.2 1 

1.5 9 1.6 4 

1.8 2 1.8 8 

2.1 0 2.0 9 

0.7 1 0.8 9 

1.6 2 1.8 8 

2.3 3 2.6 1 

3.1 6 3.4 0 

0.9 6 1.6 9 

3.2 4 3.3 6 

2.4 0 2.2 9 

2.2 7 2.4 0 

2.9 4 2.8 4 

3.1 4 3.3 2 

3.4 8 3.5 1 

3.8 3 3.8 4 

4.8 6 4.9 3 

4.3 1 4.2 8 

5.3 8 5.1 0 

7.0 0 7.0 1 

6.5 0 6.4 1 

5.4 0 5.0 8 

4.0 6 4.0 1 

8.0 2 8.6 7 

7.7 5 8.7 4 

6.1 6 6.4 6 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.7 9 

1.0 9 

1.0 6 

1.3 2 

1.6 5 

1.7 9 

1.8 8 

1.0 1 

2.0 9 

2.8 5 

3.5 8 

2.4 8 

4.0 0 

2.4 9 

2.3 0 

2.7 9 

3.3 8 

3.5 3 

3.9 1 

5.3 6 

4.4 5 

5.2 0 

7.1 3 

6.2 4 

4.6 7 

4.6 5 

8.4 8 

8.3 6 

6.3 8 

Oct. 

0.1 3 

5.0 4 

3.5 8 

-1.2 6 

0.3 5 

3.9 7 

1.7 2 

3.2 3 

-2.1 5 

-0.4 2 

5.3 3 

0.9 6 

-4.8 6 

1.1 2 

3.2 3 

0.4 8 

0.0 1 

3.8 0 

5.7 6 

2.4 8 

8.0 5 

5.9 3 

4.6 1 

9.8 9 

14.2 1 

-18.9 7 

-5.5 4 

18.5 6 

3.1 3 

9.9 0 

5.5 7 

0.7 8 

2.0 8 

2.5 6 

0.7 7 

3.8 9 

1.7 3 

0.8 9 

6.4 3 

2.2 8 

1.4 5 

3.4 8 

2.1 0 

1.4 9 

0.3 6 

6.2 4 

1.4 9 

2.1 2 

5.1 4 

8.0 8 

6.7 8 

6.3 6 

3.1 2 

2.3 0 

11.1 1 

8.0 6 

2.3 4 

11.5 7 

15.4 9 

21.1 8 

2.5 6 

14.1 7 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.8 4 

1.1 2 

1.0 4 

1.3 3 

1.6 1 

1.7 8 

1.4 0 

0.9 9 

2.2 6 

2.9 6 

3.5 9 

2.7 9 

4.1 2 

2.4 3 

2.3 5 

2.7 5 

3.4 5 

3.5 8 

4.0 3 

5.3 9 

4.5 9 

5.3 3 

7.0 4 

5.9 3 

4.4 9 

4.7 2 

7.1 6 

7.2 4 

6.0 8 

Nov. 

2.6 0 

3.2 5 

4.2 7 

-1.9 2 

-0.7 9 

5.2 2 

1.0 0 

4.5 7 

-2.2 7 

2.8 4 

4.2 0 

4.0 9 

-4.7 5 

1.5 2 

1.9 3 

1.4 6 

0.7 8 

3.6 5 

9.1 0 

5.3 2 

10.0 6 

5.5 2 

5.7 4 

11.3 0 

6.6 5 

-8.0 0 

-0.9 5 

16.7 8 

4.3 1 

21.4 2 

9.2 8 

0.9 2 

2.1 1 

3.3 2 

1.1 9 

3.6 5 

-0.8 4 

1.7 2 

5.1 8 

2.4 5 

1.9 1 

3.5 9 

2.6 3 

1.2 4 

0.6 0 

3.9 5 

1.8 4 

2.8 4 

6.2 5 

6.2 2 

3.8 0 

6.1 8 

4.0 9 

5.7 7 

9.1 4 

7.1 2 

-0.1 9 

14.6 3 

18.3 7 

16.1 2 

-4.9 1 

15.8 9 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.9 2 

1.1 4 

1.0 6 

1.3 6 

1.6 1 

1.8 6 

1.4 3 

0.9 5 

2.2 2 

3.0 0 

3.3 4 

2.7 6 

4.2 1 

2.3 8 

2.4 6 

2.8 0 

3.5 2 

3.6 2 

4.0 8 

5.3 4 

4.7 6 

5.4 9 

7.1 9 

5.2 9 

4.1 9 

4.7 7 

7.8 7 

7.5 8 

5.4 7 

Dec. 

5.1 8 

1.5 1 

3.0 5 

-1.3 1 

-0.3 7 

6.2 9 

2.6 0 

1.2 2 

-4.7 2 

4.3 1 

4.0 7 

2.3 5 

-0.6 7 

1.8 5 

2.5 4 

-1.2 0 

1.7 9 

0.5 6 

5.5 9 

8.0 3 

7.8 0 

3.0 0 

9.1 8 

13.2 6 

8.8 6 

-4.9 9 

-4.5 8 

13.9 4 

17.0 0 

14.2 2 

10.1 4 

0.9 5 

2.3 3 

3.1 2 

1.5 2 

3.3 2 

0.2 8 

1.3 2 

6.7 4 

0.8 6 

3.2 9 

4.2 5 

1.9 8 

0.4 3 

3.2 6 

3.1 2 

1.6 1 

3.7 4 

5.8 0 

6.3 5 

7.4 5 

6.6 5 

4.2 1 

5.6 8 

9.8 8 

3.8 2 

5.0 5 

12.7 7 

22.5 8 

10.8 7 

-4.9 1 

17.8 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.9 5 

1.1 5 

1.1 0 

1.3 7 

1.7 3 

2.1 3 

1.6 3 

1.1 7 

2.5 6 

3.2 3 

3.1 0 

2.8 1 

4.5 7 

2.2 7 

2.6 2 

2.8 6 

3.5 2 

3.8 6 

4.3 6 

5.0 1 1 

5.0 1 

5.9 2 

7.7 2 

4.8 6 

4.0 2 

5.0 6 

7.3 6 

7.1 8 

5.5 0 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

-0.7 9 

1.8 9 

3.5 6 

0.8 5 

-0.9 0 

0.7 6 

6.3 7 

1.4 0 

1.1 9 

-0.0 9 

2.4 1 

5.2 2 

3.1 5 

-3.1 5 

1.2 9 

2.8 5 

0.3 7 

1.9 1 

1 . 0 6 

0.6 2 

11.3 0 

9.1 4 

4.2 4 

4.0 5 

10.7 0 

4.3 9 

1.1 4 

0.9 1 

38.5 5 

16.9 5 

-22.9 1 

0.0 6 

1.2 5 

2.6 4 

3.0 3 

1.2 6 

3.1 2 

0.9 5 

1.6 0 

6.0 8 

-0.5 9 

5.2 4 

4.1 5 

2.6 4 

-0.8 5 

5.0 5 

5.4 0 

-0.1 7 

3.2 7 

6.3 2 

7.8 1 

8.3 0 

6.8 3 

1.7 1 

7.5 5 

10.6 2 

4.9 9 

5.1 2 

14.5 3 

23.8 7 

11.2 4 

-0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.9 9 

1.1 6 

1.1 2 

1.4 0 

1.6 4 

2.0 5 

1.0 8 

1.2 6 

2.3 8 

3.1 7 

1.8 4 

2.8 0 

3.9 4 

2.3 8 

2.7 4 

2.9 1 

3.5 4 

3.9 0 

4.6 3 

4.5 3 

5.0 6 

6.1 4 

7.2 6 

3.8 6 

3.4 3 

5.6 4 

7.6 0 

5.8 7 

II Q III Q IV Q 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

0.5 1 

2.3 6 

1.9 6 

2.7 7 

-2.7 9 

1.9 1 

4.2 7 

0.8 3 

1.2 7 

-1.5 4 

3.5 2 

5.5 4 

3.4 0 

-2.6 0 

4.8 9 

3.6 7 

-0.6 2 

2.4 1 

1.9 6 

3.7 5 

8.2 5 

9.4 8 

3.6 1 

7.2 8 

14.6 2 

3.8 3 

-0.6 0 

2.7 3 

17.8 4 

29.1 8 

-21.2 6 

0.3 1 

4.9 3 

2.4 4 

1.5 8 

-2.0 9 

5.8 2 

1.2 9 

1.6 5 

0.2 9 

-3.5 9 

4.7 3 

3.9 2 

1.3 6 

0.1 7 

2.4 2 

-0.2 2 

1.0 4 

3.2 4 

2.4 0 

5.1 2 

9.6 9 

9.4 9 

2.8 4 

6.7 0 

9.3 9 

3.2 4 

9.7 5 

6.7 1 

19.4 5 

26.5 8 

-7.7 5 

2.6 4 

3.2 7 

3.6 3 

-1.5 0 

-0.2 7 

5.1 6 

1.7 7 

3.0 1 

-3.0 5 

2.2 4 

4.5 3 

2.4 7 

-3.4 3 

1.5 0 

2.5 7 

0.2 5 

0.8 6 

2.6 7 

6.8 2 

5.2 8 

8.6 4 

4.8 2 

6.5 1 

11.4 8 

9.9 1 

-10.6 5 

-3.6 9 1 

16.4 3 

8.1 5 

15.1 8 

8.3 3 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

0.0 2 

1.5 5 

2.4 9 

2.5 3 

2.8 1 

3.8 7 

-0.5 1 

5.0 8 

3.8 8 

0.0 1 

6.1 2 

2.8 0 

2.5 8 

-1.2 1 

5.5 1 

4.4 2 

-0.1 4 

5.6 1 

6.6 0 

7.4 2 

9.9 4 

5.4 9 

1.9 0 

7.9 7 

11.8 1 

4.4 3 

7.2 2 

14.9 9 

19.4 4 

12.9 6 

0.6 5 

0.1 7 

1.8 7 

1.9 6 

2.4 8 

2.6 9 

5.0 7 

0.6 2 

3.6 3 

2.5 9 

0.6 2 

5.7 8 

2.0 3 

2.2 0 

-0.4 6 

6.8 9 

3.3 6 

0.7 3 

4.2 5 

6.7 5 

7.2 2 

7.5 6 

4.6 6 

3.5 1 

6.9 0 

7.1 8 

6.0 7 

10.5 1 

14.4 4 

19.2 6 

12.6 4 

12.4 7 

AVERAGE FOR 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

1.0 0 

1.1 6 

1.1 7 

1.5 3 

1.6 8 

2.2 0 

0.8 1 

1.5 1 

2.6 0 

3.1 6 

1.0 2 

3.0 2 

3.0 9 

2.3 3 

2.7 2 

2.9 4 

3.4 8 

3.8 8 

4.6 0 

3.6 6 

5.5 1 

6.2 4 

6.7 5 

4.2 1 

3.7 5 

6.6 1 

8.2 7 

5.4 0 

p.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.7 2 

1.0 4 

1.0 2 

1.2 3 

1.6 3 

1.8 3 

2.0 2 

0.8 7 

1.8 6 

2.6 0 

3.3 8 

1.7 1 

3.5 3 

2.3 9 

2.3 2 

2.8 6 

3.2 8 

3.5 1 

3.8 6 

5.0 5 

4.3 5 

5.2 3 

7.0 5 

6.3 8 

5.0 5 

4.2 4 

8.3 9 

8.2 8 

6.3 3 

0.8 8 

2.1 7 

3.0 0 

1.1 6 

3.6 2 

0.3 9 

1.3 1 

6.1 2 

1.8 6 

2.2 2 

3.7 7 

2.2 4 

1.0 5 

1.4 1 

4.4 4 

1.6 5 

2.9 0 

5.7 3 

6.8 8 

6.0 1 

6.4 0 

3.8 1 

4.5 8 

10.0 4 

6.3 3 

2.4 0 

12.9 9 

18.8 1 

16.0 6 

-2.4 2 

15.9 8 

PERIOD 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.9 0 

1.1 4 

1.0 7 

1.3 5 

1.6 5 

1.9 2 

1.4 9 

1.0 4 

2.3 5 

3.0 6 

3.3 4 

2.7 9 

4.3 0 

2.3 6 

2.4 8 

2.8 0 

3.5 0 

3.6 9 

4.1 6 

5.2 5 

4.7 9 

5.5 8 

7.3 2 

5.3 6 

4.2 3 

4.8 5 

7.4 6 

7.3 3 

5.6 8 

Annual 

0.6 7 

3.1 1 

2.9 0 

0.9 3 

-1.5 1 

3.4 1 

3.4 3 

1.7 2 

-0.0 8 

-0.7 4 

3.8 0 

4.2 8 

1.1 2 

-1.0 2 

2.7 9 

1.6 4 

0.4 1 

2.5 6 

3.0 6 

3.6 9 

9.4 7 

8.2 3 

4.3 0 

7.3 8 

11.1 6 

0.2 0 

1.6 5 

6.7 0 

21.0 0 

21.9 7 

-10.8 9 

0.2 9 

1.7 1 

2.5 2 

2.3 0 

2.6 0 

3.1 1 

0.5 9 

4.1 1 

3.6 0 

0.5 6 

5.2 3 

2.8 0 

2.1 2 

-0.2 8 

5.4 7 

3.7 1 

0.8 3 

4.7 2 

6.6 4 

7.1 1 

8.0 5 

5.2 0 

2.9 2 

8.1 2 

8.9 8 

4.4 7 

. 8.9 6 

15.6 9 

19.6 6 

8.6 0 

7.1 8 

0.3 8 

0.3 8 

0.6 0 

1.0 4 

1.1 0 

1.2 2 

1.5 5 

1.7 7 

1.9 4 

0.9 5 

1.7 5 

2.6 6 

1 3.2 6 

1.8 4 

3.4 1 

2.9 5 

2.3 8 

2.7 8 

3.1 6 

3.5 5 

3.9 5 

4.8 8 

4.3 3 

5.3 4 

6.6 9 

I 6.4 4 

4.3 4 

4.0 7 

7.0 3 

7.8 7 

5.8 2 

106 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

2.4 4 

2.2 1 

2.2 1 

2.4 5 

2.4 2 

| 2.2 0 

2.3 9 

2.7 4 

2.8 0 

2.6 9 

2.6 8 

2.8 8 

3.3 4 

3.2 4 

3.9 1 

4.3 7 

3.8 9 

4.0 8 

3.8 9 

4.1 5 

4.1 4 

4.4 3 

4.4 0 

5.1 8 

5.7 4 

6.8 6 

5.9 2 

5.6 2 

5.9 6 

6.5 6 

6.6 8 

2.5 6 

2.4 6 

2.9 7 

2.6 6 

2.6 0 

2.7 4 

3.0 8 

3.1 7 

3.0 0 

2.9 9 

3.2 0 

4.2 8 

3.6 2 

4.5 8 

5.3 4 

4.6 3 

4.5 6 

4.2 2 

4.5 0 

4.4 5 

4.9 3 

5.5 3 

6.5 7 

7.2 9 

9.0 0 

7.6 3 

7.3 6 

7.6 1 

8.3 2 

9.1 7 

2i3 6 

2.1 6 

2.0 6 

1.6 1 

2.0 9 

2.4 3 

2.5 0 

2.4 0 

2.5 0 

3.1 8 

2.9 1 

3.4 2 

3.7 2 

3.4 0 

3.3 4 

3.1 0 

3.2 2 

3.0 6 

3.5 2 

3.5 4 

4.2 9 

4.8 5 

6.6 5 

5.3 6 

5.1 2 

5.0 5 

5.2 2 

6.8 2 

Feb. 

2.3 8 

2.1 2 

2.2 1 

2.4 5 

2.3 9 

2.2 4 

2.4 0 

• 2.7 1 

2.8 3 

2.6 2 

2.7 8 

2.8 5 

3.2 2 

3.2 8 

3.9 2 

4.2 2 

3.8 1 

4.0 9 

3.9 2 

4.1 4 

4.1 6 

4.6 1 

4.4 7 

5.1 6 

5.8 6 

6.4 4 

5.8 4 

5.6 7 

6.1 4 

6.5 4 

6.6 6 

Mar. Apr. May June ! July Aug. 

115 . YIELD ON LONG-TERM TREASURY BONDS. ® 

2.4 0 

2.0 9 

2.1 9 

2.4 4 

2.3 8 

2.2 7 

2.4 7 

2.7 0 

2.8 9 

2.5 3 

2.7 8 

2.9 3 

3.2 6 

3.2 5 

3.9 2 

4.0 8 

3.7 8 

4.0 1 

3.9 3 

4.1 8 

4.1 5 

4.6 3 

4.4 5 

5.3 9 

6.0 5 

6.3 9 

5.7 1 

5.6 6 

6.2 0 

6.8 1 

6.7 7 

116 . YIEL 

2.3 8 

2.5 3 

2.8 5 

2.7 7 

2.5 8 

2.7 8 

2.9 4 

3.2 6 

2.8 8 

3.0 9 

3.0 7 

4.1 3 

3.7 3 

4.6 0 

5.2 4 

4.4 3 

4.5 3 

4.2 5 

4.3 9 

4.4 5 

5.0 9 

5.3 5 

6.5 7 

7.3 3 

8.8 4 

7.5 4 

7.5 7 

7.6 7 

8.2 1 

8.8 4 

2 M 7 

2.2 0 

2.0 3 

1.5 8 

2.0 7 

2.5 5 

2.4 2 

2.4 4 

2.4 4 

3.0 0 

3.0 2 

3.3 6 

3.6 0 

3.3 1 

3.2 1 

3.1 5 

3.1 4 

3.0 9 

3.6 4 

3.5 2 

4.3 1 

4.9 8 

6.3 6 

5.2 3 

5.2 8 

5.1 3 

5.2 0 

6.3 9 

2.4 6 

2.6 0 

2.9 9 

2.7 5 

2.5 7 

2.9 0 

3.1 4 

3.4 1 

2.7 4 

3.1 4 

3.2 5 

4.1 8 

3.8 8 

4.5 3 

4.9 8 

4.3 7 

4.4 1 

4.2 8 

4.4 5 

4.4 9 

5.3 3 

5.5 5 

6.8 0 

7.7 6 

9.0 0 

7.6 2 

7.5 3 

7.7 5 

8.6 0 

9.4 8 

117 . 

2.4..5 . 

2.1 8 

2.0 1 

1.7 4 

2.0 8 

2.6 5 

2.4 0 

2.4 4 

2.5 7 

3.1 0 

3.0 6 

3.3 0 

3.5 6 

3.4 5 

3.1 4 

3.0 5 

3.2 8 

3.1 8 

3.7 2 

3.5 5 

4.5 4 

5.2 6 

6.0 3 

5.1 7 

5.3 1 

5.2 9 

5.4 0 ; 

6.7 4 

1 2.39 

2.0 8 

2.1 9 

2.4 4 

2.3 8 

2.3 0 

2.5 6 

2.6 4 

2.9 7 

2.4 8 

2.8 2 

3.0 7 

3.3 2 

3.1 2 

4.0 1 

4.1 8 

3.8 0 

3.8 9 

3.9 7 

4.2 0 

4.1 5 

4.5 5 

4.5 1 

5.2 8 

5.8 4 

6.5 3 

5.7 5 

5.7 4 

6.1 1 

7.0 4 

7.0 5 

D ON NEW 

lYll 

2.4 3 

2.8 1 

2.7 4 

2.4 0 

3.0 6 

3.0 9 

3.5 3 

2.8 8 

3.1 1 

3.5 5 

4.2 3 

3.6 7 

4.6 0 

4.9 7 

4.5 7 

4.3 7 

4.3 5 

4.4 8 

4.4 8 

5.3 8 

5.5 9 

6.7 9 

7.5 4 

9.0 9 

7.7 6 

7.7 7 

7.7 0 

9.0 4 

9.8 1 

YIELD ON 

2*37 

2.1 4 

2.0 3 

1.9 4 

2.0 4 

2.6 5 

2.4 7 

2.4 1 

2.7 0 

3.1 3 

2.9 6 

3.3 9 

3.5 6 

3.5 0 

3.0 6 

3.1 0 

3.2 8 

3.1 5 

3.5 6 

3.6 0 

4.3 4 

5.1 9 

6.4 9 

5.3 7 

5.4 3 

5.1 5 

5.7 3 

6.9 5 

(PERCENT) 

2.3 9 2.3 5 

2.1 9 2.1 6 

2.1 9 2.2 2 

2.4 2 2.4 1 

2.3 8 2.3 8 

2.3 1 2.3 3 

2.6 3 2.6 5 

2.5 7 2.6 1 

3.1 1 3.1 3 

2.5 4 2.5 5 

2.8 1 2.8 2 

2.9 7 2.9 3 

3.4 0 3.5 8 

3.1 4 3.2 0 

4.0 8 4.0 9 

4.1 6 3.9 8 

3.7 3 3.8 8 

3.8 8 3.9 0 

3.9 7 4.0 0 

4.1 6 4.1 3 

4.1 4 4.1 4 

4.5 7 4.6 3 

4.7 6 4.8 6 

5.4 0 5.2 3 

5.8 5 6.0 5 

6.9 4 6.9 9 

5.9 6 5.9 4 

5.6 4 5.5 9 

6.2 5 6.3 2 

7.0 9 7.0 2 

7.0 1 6.8 6 

2.3 4 

2.1 8 

2.2 5 

2.4 4 

2.2 7 

2.3 4 

2.6 3 

2.6 1 

3.0 2 

2.4 7 

2.9 1 

3.0 0 

3.6 0 

3.3 6 

4.1 1 

3.8 6 

3.9 0 

4.0 2 

4.0 1 

4.1 3 

4.1 5 

4.7 5 

4.8 6 

5.0 9 

6.0 7 

6.5 7 

5.9 1 

5.5 9 

6.5 3 

7.1 8 

6.8 9 

2.3 6 

2.2 3 

2.2 4 

2.4 5 

2.2 4 

2.3 3 

2.5 7 

2.7 0 

3.0 2 

2.4 8 

2.9 5 

3.1 7 

3.6 3 

3.6 0 

4.1 0 

3.7 9 

4.0 0 

3.9 8 

3.9 9 

4.1 4 

4.1 9 

4.8 0 

4.9 5 

5.0 4 

6.0 2 

6.7 5 

5.7 8 

5.5 9 

6.8 5 

7.3 3 

7.1 1 

Sept. 

2.3 7 

2.2 8 

2.2 4 

2.4 5 

2.2 2 

2.3 6 

2.5 6 

2.7 1 

2.9 8 

2.5 2 

2.9 2 

3.2 1 

3.6 6 

3.7 5 

4.2 6 

3.8 4 

4.0 2 

3.9 4 

4.0 4 

4.1 6 

4.2 5 

4.7 9 

4.9 9 

5.0 9 

6.3 2 

6.6 3 

5.5 6 

5.7 0 

6.4 1 

7.3 0 

7.2 8 

ISSUES OF HIGH-GRADE CORPORATE BONDS ® 

(PERCENT) 

2*47 2*4 5 

2.4 7 2.6 0 

2.8 6 2.9 3 

2.6 9 2.7 7 

2.5 8 2.6 3 

2.9 8 3.2 4 

3.2 5 3.0 9 

3.8 0 3.8 2 

2.9 0 2.9 1 

3.1 5 3.1 1 

3.4 8 3.5 6 

4.4 1 4.8 1 

3.6 6 3.6 1 

4.9 2 5.0 0 

4.9 5 4.9 1 

4.6 7 4.8 2 

4.3 2 4.3 0 

4.3 6 4.3 2 

4.4 8 4.5 0 

4.5 2 4.5 7 

5.5 5 5.6 7 

5.9 0 6.0 6 

7.0 0 7.0 2 

7.6 2 8.0 4 

9.5 3 9.7 0 

8.2 5 8.1 5 

7.6 1 7.6 3 

7.6 9 7.7 3 

9.3 9 9.5 9 

9.7 6 9.2 7 

MUNICIPAL BONDS, 

(PERCENT) 

2*3 1 2*2 4 

2.1 4 2.2 0 

2.0 0 1.9 9 

2.0 0 2.1 9 

2.0 6 2.1 3 

2.7 8 2.9 9 

2.5 0 2.4 8 

2.3 8 2.4 1 

2.6 8 2.5 4 

3.2 7 3.4 1 

2.9 2 2.9 7 

3.5 8 3.7 2 

3.6 0 3.5 5 

3.4 3 3.5 2 

3.1 1 3.2 6 

3.1 1 3.2 1 

3.2 0 3.2 0 

3.1 7 3.2 4 

3.6 5 3.7 7 

3.8 9 3.9 6 

4.5 4 4.5 0 

5.3 3 5.7 6 

7.0 0 6.9 6 

5.9 0 5.9 5 

5.3 0 5.3 4 

5.1 4 5.1 8 

6.0 2 6.1 3 

6.9 7 6.9 5 

2.4 8 

2.5 7 

2.8 0 

2.6 8 

2.5 5 

3.2 0 

3.1 1 

3.5 9 

2.9 4 

3.1 4 

3.5 6 

4.5 9 

3.8 5 

4.9 5 

4.7 9 

4.8 1 

4.4 1 

4.3 4 

4.4 4 

4.5 7 

5.8 1 

6.0 6 

6.9 1 

8.0 6 

9.0 9 

8.2 4 

7.7 2 

7.9 7 

10.1 8 

9.5 6 

20-BOND 

2!2 7 

2.1 6 

2.0 1 

2.1 5 

2.1 5 

2.9 8 

2.3 2 

2.5 4 

2.6 5 

3.4 0 

3.0 9 

3.7 1 

3.5 0 

3.5 2 

3.2 8 

3.2 2 

3.1 8 

3.2 7 

3.9 5 

4.0 2 

4.3 3 

5.7 5 

6.5 3 

6.0 6 

5.4 1 

5.4 0 

6.6 8 

7.0 7 

2.0 6 

2.6 2 

2.8 3 

2.6 0 

2.6 1 

3.0 1 

3.0 8 

3.4 6 

2.9 4 

3.4 1 

4.0 2 

4.7 8 

4.3 9 

4.9 0 

4.6 5 

4.7 9 

4.3 9 

4.3 4 

4.4 4 

4.6 6 

6.0 4 

6.3 0 

6.5 4 

8.0 5 

9.0 8 

8.1 4 

7.5 9 

8.4 5 

10.3 0 

9.7 0 

AVERAGE 

2*3 7 

2.1 2 

1.8 3 

2.0 2 

2.2 4 

2.9 0 

2.2 6 

2.6 0 

2.8 0 

3.5 4 

3.3 6 

3.5 8 

3.3 4 

3.5 2 

3.2 3 

3.1 3 

3.1 9 

3.2 4 

4.1 2 

3.9 9 

4.2 1 

6.0 0 

6.2 0 

5.8 2 

5.3 0 

5.4 8 

6.7 1 

7.1 7 

2.7 5 

2.6 6 

2.8 6 

2.4 0 

2.7 0 

2.9 1 

3.1 4 

3.6 0 

3.0 1 

3.2 7 

3.9 6 

4.6 8 

4.5 6 

5.2 8 

4.6 4 

4.7 2 

4.2 8 

4.4 0 

4.4 9 

4.7 1 

6.1 4 

6.3 3 

6.6 9 

8.3 6 

9.0 0 

7.9 0 

7.7 2 

8.1 0 

10.4 4 

9.8 9 

® 

2*4 1 

2.1 4 

1.8 4 

2.0 1 

2.3 0 

2.9 0 

2.3 1 

2.5 8 

2.9 4 

3.5 4 

3.5 4 

3.7 8 

3.4 2 

3.5 3 

3.1 1 

3.2 0 

3.2 3 

3.3 5 

4.1 2 

4.1 2 

4.3 8 

6.2 6 

6.2 5 

5.3 7 

5.3 6 

5.1 0 | 

6.7 6 

7.4 4 

Oct. 

2T35 

2.2 6 

2.2 7 

2.4 5 

2.2 2 

2.3 8 

2.6 1 

2.7 4 

| 2.8 3 

2.5 4 

2.8 7 

3.2 0 

3.7 3 

3.7 6 

4.1 1 

3.9 1 

3.9 8 

3.8 9 

4.0 7 

4.1 6 

4.2 8 

4.7 0 

! 5.1 9 

5.2 4 

6.2 7 

6.5 9 

5.4 6 

5.6 9 

6.2 5 

7.2 2 

7.2 9 

2.7 0 

2.9 1 

2.9 9 

2.5 0 

2.6 4 

3.0 9 

3.1 6 

3.0 9 

2.8 4 

3.1 5 

3.9 4 

4.7 1 

4.4 8 

5.3 7 

4.7 5 

4.6 0 

4.2 6 

4.3 7 

4.4 9 

4.7 0 

6.0 4 

6.5 3 

6.8 8 

8.4 6 

9.1 4 

7.7 2 

7.6 6 

7.9 7 

10.2 9 

9.5 4 

2.4 2 

2.1 6 

1.7 9 

2.0 6 

2.3 8 

2.7 5 

2.3 4 

2.5 1 

2.9 5 

3.4 2 

3.4 5 

3.6 2 

3.5 3 

3.4 2 

3.0 2 

3.2 0 

3.2 5 

3.4 0 

3.9 4 

4.3 0 

4.4 9 

6.0 9 

6.3 9 

5.0 6 

5.1 8 

5.0 5 

6.5 7 

7.3 9 

Nov. 

2.3 3 

2.2 5 

2.3 6 

2.4 4 

2.2 0 

2.3 8 

2.6 6 

2.7 1 

2.8 6 

2.5 7 

2.8 9 

3.3 0 

3.5 7 

3.7 0 

4.1 2 

3.9 3 

3.9 8 

3.8 7 

4.1 1 

4.1 2 

4.3 4 

4.7 4 

5.4 4 

5.3 6 

6.5 2 

6.2 4 

5.4 8 

5.5 1 

6.3 0 

6.9 3 

7.2 1 

2!4 9 

2.6 9 

2.9 6 

2.5 4 

2.6 3 

3.3 6 

3.0 7 

3.1 3 

2.9 4 

3.1 7 

4.2 9 

4.5 6 

4.3 5 

5.1 4 

4.8 2 

4.5 2 

4.2 3 

4.4 2 

4.4 8 

4.7 5 

6.1 1 

6.8 7 

7.0 0 

8.9 4 

8.9 7 

7.6 7 

7.4 6 

7.9 5 

9.2 2 

9.4 8 

TT7 

2*3 8 

2.1 2 

1.7 4 

2.0 5 

2.3 8 

2.6 2 

2.3 2 

2.4 6 

3.1 6 

3.3 7 

3.3 2 

3.5 5 

3.4 0 

3.4 1 

3.0 4 

3.3 0 

3.1 8 

3.4 6 

3.8 6 

4.3 4 

4.6 0 

6.3 0 

5.9 3 

5.2 0 

5.0 2 

5.1 8 

6.6 1 

7.4 3 

Dec. 

2.3 3 

2.2 4 

2.3 9 

2.4 4 

2.1 9 

2.3 9 

2.7 0 

2.7 5 

2.7 9 

2.5 9 

2.9 1 

3.4 0 

3.3 0 

3.8 0 

4.2 7 

3.8 8 

4.0 6 

3.8 7 

4.1 4 

4.1 4 

4.4 3 

4.6 5 

5.3 6 

5.6 6 

6.8 1 

5.9 7 

5.6 2 

5.6 3 

6.3 5 

6.7 7 

7.1 7 

2!7 0 

2.8 8 

3.1 5 

2.5 3 

2.7 5 

3.2 2 

3.0 4 

3.2 3 

2.8 7 

3.2 7 

4.2 6 

4.0 4 

4.4 4 

5.2 7 

4.9 4 

4.5 8 

4.2 8 

4.4 9 

4.4 9 

4.9 2 

5.9 8 

6.9 3 

7.2 8 

9.2 2 

8.1 3 

7.5 4 

7.5 0 

8.0 9 

9.4 7 

9.5 9 

2*2 6 

2.0 9 

1.7 2 

2.0 9 

2.3 8 

2.6 0 

2.3 6 

2.5 7 

3.2 2 

3.0 4 

3.3 4 

3.6 8 

3.4 0 

3.4 7 

3.0 7 

3.2 7 

3.1 3 

3.5 4 

3.8 6 

4.4 3 

4.8 2 

6.8 2 

5.4 6 

5.2 1 

5.0 5 

5.1 2 

7.0 5 

7.3 1 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

2.4 1 

2.1 4 

2.2 0 

2.4 5 

2.4 0 

2.2 4 

2.4 2 

2.7 2 

2.8 4 

2.6 1 

2.7 5 

2.8 9 

3.2 7 

3.2 6 

3.9 2 

4.2 2 

3.8 3 

4.0 6 

3.9 1 

4.1 6 

4.1 5 

4.5 6 

4.4 4 

5.2 4 

5.8 8 

6.5 6 

5.8 2 

5.6 5 

6.1 0 

6.6 4 

6.7 0 

2*4 7 

2.5 3 

2.9 4 

2.7 3 

2.5 8 

2.8 1 

3.0 5 

3.2 8 

2.8 7 

3.0 7 

3.1 7 

4.2 0 

3.7 4 

4.5 7 

5.1 9 

4.4 8 

4.5 0 

4.2 5 

4.4 5 

4.4 6 

5.1 2 

5.4 8 

6.6 5 

7.4 6 

8.9 5 

7.6 0 

7.4 9 

7.6 8 

8.3 8 

9.1 6 

2!4 3 

2.1 8 

2.0 3 

1.6 4 

2.0 8 

2.5 4 

2.4 4 

2.4 3 

2.5 0 

3.0 9 

3.0 0 

3.3 6 

3.6 3 

3.3 9 

3.2 3 

3.1 0 

3.2 1 

3.1 1 

3.6 3 

3.5 4 

4.3 8 

5.0 3 

6.3 5 

5.2 5 

5.2 4 

5.1 6 

5.2 7 

6.6 5 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

2.3 8 2.3 6 

2.1 4 2.2 3 

2.2 0 2.2 4 

2.4 2 2.4 5 

2.3 8 2.2 4 

2.3 1 2.3 4 

2.6 1 2.5 9 

2.6 1 2.6 7 

3.0 7 3.0 1 

2.5 2 2.4 9 

2.8 2 2.9 3 

2.9 9 3.1 3 

3.4 3 3.6 3 

3.1 5 3.5 7 

4.0 6 4.1 6 

4.1 1 3.8 3 

3.8 0 3.9 7 

3.8 9 3.9 8 

3.9 8 4.0 1 

4.1 6 4.1 4 

4.1 4 4.2 0 

4.5 8 4.7 8 

4.7 1 4.9 3 

5.3 0 5.0 7 

5.9 1 6.1 4 

6.8 2 6.6 5 

5.8 8 5.7 5 

5.6 6 5.6 3 

6.2 3 6.6 0 

7.0 5 7.2 7 

6.9 7 7.0 9 

AVERAGE FOR 

77. 777 

2.4 0 2.4 3 

2.5 0 2.6 2 

2.8 7 2.8 3 

2.7 3 2.5 6 

2.5 4 2.6 2 

3.0 9 3.0 4 

3.1 4 3.1 1 

3.7 2 3.5 5 

2.9 0 2.9 6 

3.1 2 3.2 7 

3.5 3 3.8 5 

4.4 8 4.6 8 

3.6 5 4.2 7 

4.8 4 5.0 4 

4.9 4 4.6 9 

4.6 9 4.7 7 

4.3 3 4.3 6 

4.3 4 4.3 6 

4.4 9 4.4 6 

4.5 2 4.6 5 

5.5 3 6.0 0 

5.8 5 6.2 3 

6.9 4 6.7 1 

7.7 3 8.1 6 

9.4 4 9.0 6 

8.0 5 8.0 9 

7.6 7 7.6 8 

7.7 1 8.1 7 

9.3 4 10.3 1 

9.6 1 9.7 2 

AVERAGE FOR 

2*3 1 2*3 5 

2.1 6 2.1 4 

2.0 1 1.8 9 

2.0 4 2.0 6 

2.0 8 2.2 3 

2.8 1 2.9 3 

2.4 8 2.3 0 

2.4 0 2.5 7 

2.6 4 2.8 0 

3.2 7 3.4 9 

2.9 5 3.3 3 

3.5 6 3.6 9 

3.5 7 3.4 2 

3.4 8 3.5 2 

3.1 4 3.2 1 

3.1 4 3.1 8 

3.2 3 3.2 0 

3.1 9 3.2 9 

3.6 6 4.0 6 

3.8 2 4.0 4 

4.4 6 4.3 1 

5.4 3 6.0 0 

6.8 2 6.3 3 

5.7 4 5.7 5 

5.3 6 5.3 6 

5.1 6 5.3 3 

5.9 6 6.7 2 

6.9 6 7.2 3 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

2.3 4 

2.2 5 

2.3 4 

2.4 4 

2.2 0 

2.3 8 

2.6 6 

2.7 3 

2.8 3 

2.5 7 

2.8 9 

3.3 0 

3.5 3 

3.7 5 

4.1 7 

3.9 1 

4.0 1 

3.8 8 

4.1 1 

4.1 4 

4.3 5 

4.7 0 

5.3 3 

5.4 2 

6.5 3 

6.2 7 

5.5 2 

5.6 1 

6.3 0 

6.9 7 

7.2 2 

PERIOD 

2*6 3 

2.8 3 

3.0 3 

2.5 2 

2.6 7 

3.2 2 

3.0 9 

3.1 5 

2.8 8 

3.2 0 

4.1 6 

4.4 4 

4.4 2 

5.2 6 

4.8 4 

4.5 7 

4.2 6 

4.4 3 

4.4 9 

4.7 9 

6.0 4 

6.7 8 

7.0 5 

8.8 7 

8.7 5 

7.6 4 

7.5 4 

8.0 0 

9.6 6 

9.5 4 

PERIOD 

2*3 5 

2.1 2 

1.7 5 

2.0 7 

2.3 8 

2.6 6 

2.3 4 

2.51 ] 

3.1 1 

3.2 8 

3.3 7 

3.6 2 

3.4 4 

3.4 3 

3.0 4 

3.2 6 

3.1 9 

3.4 7 

3.8 9 

4.3 6 

4.6 4 

6.4 0 

5.9 3 

5.1 6 

5.0 8 

5.1 2 

6.7 4 

7.3 8 

Annual 

2.3 7 

2.1 9 

2.2 5 

2.4 4 

2.3 1 

2.3 2 

2.5 7 

2.6 8 

2.9 4 

2.5 5 

2.8 4 

3.0 8 

3.4 7 

3.4 3 

4.0 8 

4.0 2 

3.9 0 

3.9 5 

4.0 0 

4.1 5 

4.2 1 

4.6 5 

4.8 5 

5.2 6 

6.1 2 

6.5 8 

5.7 4 

5.6 4 

6.3 1 

6.9 8 

7.0 0 

2.4 8 

2.6 2 

2.9 2 

2.6 4 

2.6 0 

3.0 4 

3.1 0 

3.4 2 

2.9 0 

| 3.1 7 

3.6 8 

4.4 5 

4.0 2 

4.9 3 

4.9 2 

4.6 3 

4.3 6 

4.3 4 

4.4 7 

4.6 1 

5.6 7 

6.0 8 

6.8 4 

8.0 6 

9.0 5 

i 7.8 5 

7.5 9 

7.8 9 

9.4 2 

9.5 1 

2." 36 

2.1 5 

1.9 2 

1.9 5 

2.1 9 

2.7 3 

2.3 9 

2.4 8 

2.7 6 

3.2 8 

3.1 6 

3.5 6 

3.5 2 

3.4 6 

3.1 6 

3.1 7 

3.2 1 

3.2 6 

3.8 1 

3.9 4 

4.4 5 

5.7 2 

6.3 5 

5.4 8 

5.2 6 

5.1 9 

6.1 7 

7.0 5 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

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1962.. . 

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1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.5 .

4.3 1 

4.0 8 

4.2 6 

4.3 4 

4.7 5 

4.5 6 

4.7 3 

... 5.5 8 

5.6 0 

6.2 4 

6.0 0 

5.6 9 

5.5 2 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

5.7 0 

6.6 2 

6.8 1 

... 

... 

... 7.4 9 

7.5 5 

... 8.9 9 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.3 7 

2.4 4 

2.9 3 

2.7 2 

2.4 8 

3.9 9 

1.4 5 

2.1 4 

2.9 1 

3.4 8 

3.9 0 

4.4 2 

4.9 4 

4.6 0 

6.3 0 

8.9 8 

4.1 4 

3.5 0 

5.9 4 

9.6 5 

7.1 3 

777 168. 7 

186. 8 

200. 8 

207. 3 

215. 5 

242. 9 

259. 9 

280. 8 

285. 7 

296. 3 

320. 9 

341. 3 

352. 0 

371. 4 

394. 7 

403. 8 

428. 5 

454. 9 

479. 8 

517. 9 

562. 9 

610. 1 

652. 3 

716. 1 

774. 2 

831. 8 

902. 4 

1000. 2 

1103. 8 

1199. 4 

Feb. 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.5 .

4.3 1 

4.0 8 

4.2 7 

4.3 4 

4.6 9 

4.5 6 

4.7 0 

5.3 6 

5.5 6 

5.5 8 

6.2 3 

5.8 9 

5.6 8 

5.4 8 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

... 6.4 6 

6.7 8 

7.9 9 

9.2 9 

... 7.4 6 

7.5 6 

8.5 4 

8.8 4 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.2 9 

2.5 0 

3.0 0 

1.6 7 

2.4 0 

3.9 7 

2.5 4 

2.3 7 

3.0 0 

3.4 8 

3.9 8 

4.6 0 

5.0 0 

4.7 2 

6.6 4 

8.9 8 

3.7 2 

3.2 9 

6.5 8 

8.9 7 

6.2 4 

77T 168. 2 

186. 5 

200. 3 

206. 3 

218. 4 

245. 5 

263. 7 

282. 7 

286. 7 

298. 0 

322. 8 

344. 4 

351. 5 

373. 6 

394. 9 

405. 8 

431. 6 

453. 0 

482. 1 

518. 2 

568. 4 

611. 2 

660. 2 

721. 6 

778. 8 

834. 0 

914. 6 

1012. 6 

1109. 3 

1201. 6 

Mar. Apr. 

118 . SECONDARE 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.5 .

4.3 0 

4.1 2 

4.2 9 

4.3 4 

4.6 4 

4.5 9 

4.6 8 

5.3 5 

5.5 1 

5.5 7 

6.2 2 

5.8 2 

5.6 5 

5.4 7 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

6.0 0 

6.3 5 

6.8 3 

8.0 5 

9.2 0 

7.3 2 

7.4 5 

7.6 3 

8.6 6 

8.6 9 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.3 5 

2.5 0 

2.9 6 

1.2 0 

2.8 0 

3.8 4 

2.0 2 

2.7 0 

2.9 8 

3.4 3 

4.0 4 

4.6 5 

4.5 3 

5.0 5 

6.7 9 

7.7 6 

3.7 1 

3.8 3 

7.0 9 

9.3 5 

5.5 4 

2 

777 171. 3 

186. 3 

203. 7 

207. 5 

223. 5 

248. 1 

264. 3 

285. 5 

285. 7 

300. 4 

324. 2 

345. 9 

353. 3 

376. 6 

395. 3 

407. 1 

435. 3 

454. 7 

484. 7 

521. 2 

572. 3 

615. 3 

667. 8 

728. 1 

784. 6 

840. 7 

920. 1 

1022. 4 

1115. 9 

1208. 3 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.5 .

... 4.1 9 

4.2 9 

... 4.6 2 

4.6 0 

4.7 1 

5.3 5 

5.4 3 

5.5 8 

6.2 1 

5.7 7 

5.6 4 

5.4 6 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

... 6.2 9 

6.9 4 

8.0 6 

9.1 0 

7.3 7 

7.5 0 

7.7 3 

9.1 7 

... 

May 

MARKET 

June July Aug. 

YIELDS ON FHA MORTGAGES 

(PERCENT) 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.4 .

... 4.2 7 

4.2 9 

... 4.5 9 

4.6 3 

4.7 8 

5.3 2 

5.3 9 

5.6 4 

6.2 1 

... 5.6 0 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

6.3 2 

6.4 4 

... 8.0 6 

9.1 1 

7.7 5 

7.5 3 

7.7 9 

9.4 6 

9.1 6 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.5 .

4.0 9 

4.2 9 

4.3 0 

4.6 7 

4.5 7 

4.6 3 

4.8 1 

5.3 5 

5.3 7 

5.7 1 

6.1 9 

... 5.5 9 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

5.4 4 

6.4 5 

6.5 1 

7.5 2 

8.3 5 

9.1 6 

7.8 9 

7.5 4 

7.8 9 

9.4 6 

9.0 6 

119 . FEDERAL FUNDS 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.4 3 

2.6 2 

3.0 0 

1.2 6 

2.9 6 

3.9 2 

1.5 0 

2.6 9 

2.9 0 

3.4 7 

4.0 9 

4.6 7 

4.0 5 

5.7 6 

7.4 1 

8.1 0 

4.1 5 

4.1 7 

7.1 2 

10.5 1 

5.4 9 

(PERCENT) 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.4 3 

2.7 5 

3.0 0 

0.6 3 

2.9 0 

3.8 5 

1.9 8 

2.2 9 

3.0 0 

3.5 0 

4.1 0 

4.9 0 

3.9 4 

6.1 2 

8.6 7 

7.9 4 

4.6 3 

4.2 7 

7.8 4 

11.3 1 

5.2 2 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.6 2 

2.7 1 

3.0 0 

0.9 3 

3.3 9 

3.3 2 

1.7 3 

2.6 8 

2.9 9 

3.5 0 

4.0 4 

5.1 7 

3.9 8 

6.0 7 

8.9 0 

7.6 0 

4.9 1 

4.4 6 

8.4 9 

11.9 3 

5.5 5 

2 3 . PERSONAL INCOME IN CU 

(ANNUAL RATE, 

777 173. 1 

183. 5 

204. 7 

206. 5 

218. 8 

250. 9 

263. 9 

285. 8 

284. 6 

303. 4 

327. 2 

346. 3 

352. 4 

379. 7 

398. 9 

407. 9 

437. 9 

456. 2 

488. 3 

1 524. 9 

575. 1 

616. 7 

671. 1 

733. 4 

803. 9 

845. 1 

927. 0 

1031. 1 

1125. 3 

1213. 5 

... 

174. 5 

183. 9 

206. 1 

206. 0 

219. 2 

252. 3 

266. 9 

287. 1 

285. 5 

306. 0 

327. 6 

348. 0 

353. 7 

382. 3 

400. 4 

410. 9 

438. 9 

458. 5 

491. 6 

529. 8 

577. 5 

619. 0 

678. 3 

738. 6 

799. 5 

850. 1 

931. 7 

1037. 8 

1137. 3 

1223. 7 

BILLIONS 

777 176. 7 

186. 7 

210. 3 

204. 0 

220. 3 

254. 0 

268. 4 

288. 3 

285. 7 

307. 1 

329. 7 

350. 6 

355. 6 

384. 8 

400. 7 

415. 1 

440. 3 

462. 2 

494. 1 

534. 0 

582. 3 

623. 5 

684. 0 

743. 6 

799. 0 

869. 1 

923. 0 

1045. 7 

1147. 9 

1253. 7 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.4 .

4.0 8 

4.3 1 

4.3 0 

4.7 4 

4.5 6 

4.6 4 

4.8 1 

5.3 8 

5.3 5 

5.7 5 

6.1 8 

5.6 8 

5.5 8 

5.4 5 

5.4 6 

5.4 4 

6.5 1 

6.5 3 

7.4 2 

8.3 6 

9.1 1 

7.9 7 

7.5 4 

8.1 9 

9.8 5 

9.1 3 

RATE <§) 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.6 8 

2.7 4 

2.9 9 

0.6 8 

3.4 4 

3.2 3 

1.1 6 

2.7 1 

3.0 2 

3.4 2 

4.0 9 

5.3 0 

3.7 9 

6.0 2 

8.6 1 

7.2 1 

5.3 1 

4.5 5 

10.4 0 

12.9 2 

6.1 0 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.4 .

4.0 8 

4.3 1 

4.3 0 

4.8 2 

4.5 6 

4.6 7 

4.8 7 

... 5.3 7 

5.8 0 

6.1 4 

5.6 8 

5.5 7 

5.4 5 

5.4 6 

5.4 5 

6.5 8 

6.6 0 

7.3 5 

8.3 6 

9.0 7 

7.9 2 

7.5 5 

... 10.3 0 

9.3 2 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.2.1 .

1.9 0 

2.7 4 

3.2 4 

1.5 3 

3.5 0 

2.9 8 

2.0 0 

2.9 3 

3.4 9 

3.5 0 

4.1 2 

5.5 3 

3.8 9 

6.0 3 

9.1 9 

6.6 1 

5.5 7 

4.8 0 

10.5 0 

12.0 1 

6.1 4 

RRENT DOLLARS 

OF DOLLARS) 

... 

181. 0 

187. 0 

211. 0 

202. 5 

224. 6 

253. 5 

267. 3 

287. 8 

286. 2 

311. 8 

328. 8 

352. 1 

362. 1 

385. 2 

401. 2 

417. 0 

441. 9 

463. 1 

497. 0 

537. 1 

585. 8 

628. 3 

690. 0 

! 749. 6 

[ 803. 8 

860. 0 

940. 3 

1054. 1 

1164. 0 

1252. 0 

... 

182. 4 

187. 6 

213. 5 

204. 1 

228. 9 

256. 4 

274. 8 

287. 1 

287. 8 

312. 0 

333. 8 

353. 7 

361. 9 

382. 3 

401. 4 

417. 3 

443. 1 

465. 4 

500. 9 

539. 2 

590. 9 

632. 4 

694. 5 

755. 1 

808. 7 

865. 6 

949. 7 

1064. 0 

1172. 2 

1267. 5 

Sept. 

® 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.2 .

4.0 8 

4.3 0 

4.3 0 

4.8 6 

4.5 6 

4.7 0 

4.9 2 

... 5.5 0 

... 6.1 1 

5.6 9 

5.5 6 

5.4 5 

5.4 6 

5.4 6 

6.6 3 

6.6 3 

7.2 8 

8.4 0 

9.0 1 

7.8 4 

7.5 6 

9.1 8 

10.3 8 

9.7 4 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.0.7 . 

2.1 8 

2.9 5 

3.5 0 

1.7 6 

3.7 6 

2.6 0 

1.8 8 

2.9 0 

3.4 8 

3.4 5 

4.0 1 

5.4 0 

4.0 0 

5.7 8 

9.1 5 

6.2 9 

5.5 5 

4.8 7 

10.7 8 

11.3 4 

6.2 4 

... 

178. 9 

202. 4 

213. 7 

207. 3 

231. 0 

256. 9 

277. 5 

287. 1 

289. 5 

314. 3 

335. 8 

352. 8 

364. 0 

383. 1 

402. 1 

418. 2 

445. 4 

468. 2 

503. 6 

554. 1 

595. 9 

634. 7 

699. 4 

759. 7 

815. 1 

868. 6 

954. 0 

1074. 8 

1181. 5 

1277. 1 

Oct. 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.2 .

4.0 8 

4.2 7 

4.3 1 

4.8 2 

4.5 6 

4.7 3 

4.9 5 

5.6 3 

5.5 7 

... 6.0 9 

5.7 0 

5.5 5 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

5.4 9 

... 6.6 5 

7.2 9 

8.4 8 

8.9 7 

7.7 5 

7.5 7 

8.9 7 

10.1 3 

9.5 3 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

0.9.0 . 

2.2 4 

2.9 6 

3.5 0 

1.8 0 

3.9 8 

2.4 7 

2.2 6 

2.9 0 

3.5 0 

3.3 6 

4.0 8 

5.5 3 

3.8 8 

5.9 2 

9.0 0 

6.2 0 

5.2 0 

5.0 4 

10.0 1 

10.0 6 

5.8 2 

 ■ . 

183. 2 

194. 4 

214. 5 

203. 6 

234. 2 

259. 8 

278. 7 

288. 9 

291. 4 

315. 9 

339. 3 

352. 8 

364. 8 

384. 1 

403. 5 

421. 9 

446. 4 

471. 3 

504. 2 

551. 2 

599. 3 

636. 3 

703. 8 

764. 0 

812. 5 

872. 6 

971. 7 

1086. 2 

1191. 7 

1290. 8 

Nov. 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.2 .

4.0 8 

4.2 7 

4.3 2 

4.8 1 

4.5 6 

4.7 5 

... 5.6 3 

5.6 0 

6.2 3 

6.0 5 

5.7 0 

5.5 4 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

5.5 1 

6.8 1 

6.7 7 

7.3 6 

8.4 8 

8.9 0 

7.6 2 

7.5 7 

8.8 6 

... 9.4 1 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

0.9.1 .

2.3 5 

2.8 8 

3.2 2 

2.2 7 

4.0 0 

2.4 4 

2.6 2 

2.9 4 

3.4 8 

3.5 2 

4.1 0 

5.7 7 

4.1 2 

5.8 1 

8.8 5 

5.6 0 

4.9 1 

5.0 6 

10.0 3 

9.4 5 

5.2 2 

• . • 

183. 7 

195. 2 

213. 3 

206. 1 

236. 3 

260. 8 

278. 1 

287. 1 

294. 0 

318. 3 

339. 4 

353. 1 

369. 1 

388. 2 

403. 0 

426. 0 

448. 6 

472. 5 

507. 8 

556. 0 

603. 3 

642. 4 

708. 8 

767. 6 

814. 3 

880. 3 

984. 1 

1096. 7 

1191. 7 

1300. 2 

Dec. 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.2 .

4.0 8 

4.2 6 

4.3 2 

4.7 8 

4.5 6 

4.7 3 

5.6 1 

5.6 0 

6.2 3 

6.0 4 

5.6 9 

5.5 3 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

5.6 2 

6.7 7 

6.8 1 

7.5 0 

8.6 2 

8.4 0 

7.5 9 

7.5 6 

8.7 8 

9.5 1 

9.3 2 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.2.6 . 

2.4 8 

2.9 4 

2.9 8 

2.4 2 

3.9 9 

1.9 8 

2.3 3 

2.9 3 

3.3 8 

3.8 5 

4.3 2 

5.4 0 

4.5 1 

6.0 2 

8.9 7 

4.9 0 

4.1 4 

5.3 3 

9.9 5 

8.5 3 

5.2 0 

... 

185. 9 

197 . 5j 

210. 6 

207. 2 

241. 7 

261. 8 

280. 1 

286. 2 

294. 9 

320. 3 

341. 3 

352. 0 

370. 8 

393. 8 

400. 5 

428. 6 

450. 7 

477. 0 

513. 7 

560. 8 

604. 8 

649. 6 

712. 8 

772. 6 

820. 8 

891. 3 

992. 0 

1103. 6 

1198. 9 

1308. 2 

Quarterly 

IQ 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.5 .

4.3 1 

4.0 9 

4.2 7 

4.3 4 

4.6 9 

4.5 7 

4.7 0 

... 5.5 5 

5.5 8 

6.2 3 

5.9 0 

5.6 7 

5.4 9 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

... 6.4 8 

6.8 1 

... 

... 

... 7.4 7 

7.5 8 

... 8.8 4 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.3 4 

2.4 8 

2.9 6 

1.8 6 

2.5 6 

3.9 3 

2.0 0 

2.4 0 

2.9 6 

3.4 6 

3.9 7 

4.5 6 

4.8 2 

4.7 9 

6.5 8 

8.5 7 

3.8 6 

3.5 4 

6.5 4 

9.3 2 

6.3 0 

... 

169. 4 

186. 5 

201. 6 

207. 0 

219. 1 

245. 5 

262. 6 

283. 0 

286. 1 

298. 2 

322. 6 

343. 9 

352. 3 

373. 9 

395. 0 

405. 6 

431. 8 

454. 2 

482. 2 

519. 1 

1 567. 9 

612. 2 

1 660. 1 

721. 9 

779. 2 

835. 5 

912. 4 

1011. 8 

1109. 7 

1203. 1 

II Q IIIQ 

AVERAGE FOR 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.5 .

... 4.2 5 

4.2 9 

... 4.5 9 

4.6 2 

4.7 7 

5.3 4 

5.4 0 

5.6 4 

6.2 0 

... 5.6 1 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

... 6.4 1 

... 8.1 6 

9.1 2 

7.6 7 

7.5 2 

7.8 0 

9.3 6 

... 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.3 .

4.0 8 

4.3 1 

4.3 0 

4.8 1 

4.5 6 

4.6 7 

4.8 7 

... 5.4 1 

... 6.1 4 

5.6 8 

5.5 7 

5.4 5 

5.4 6 

5.4 5 

6.5 7 

6.5 9 

7.3 5 

8.3 7 

9.0 6 

7.9 1 

7.5 5 

... 10.1 8 

9.4 0 

AVERAGE FOR 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.4 9 

2.6 9 

3.0 0 

0.9 4 

3.0 8 

3.7 0 

1.7 4 

2.5 5 

2.9 6 

3.4 9 

4.0 8 

4.9 1 

3.9 9 

5.9 8 

8.3 3 

7.8 8 

4.5 6 

4.3 0 

7.8 2 

11.2 5 

5.4 2 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.9 2 

2.8 1 

3.2 4 

1.3 2 

3.5 7 

2.9 4 

1.6 8 

2.8 5 

3.3 3 

3.4 6 

4.0 7 

5.4 1 

3.8 9 

5.9 4 

8.9 8 

6.7 0 

5.4 8 

4.7 4 

10.5 6 

12.0 9 

6.1 6 

AVERAGE FOR 

... 

174. 8 

184. 7 

207. 0 

205. 5 

219. 4 

252. 4 

266. 4 

287. 0 

285. 3 

305. 5 

328. 2 

348. 3 

353. 9 

382. 2 

400. 0 

411. 3 

439. 0 

459. 0 

491. 4 

529. 5 

578. 3 

619. 7 

677. 8 

738. 5 

800. 8 

854. 7 

927. 2 

1038. 2 

1136. 8 

1230. 3 

... 

180. 8 

192. 3 

212. 7 

204. 6 

228. 2 

255. 6 

273. 2 

287. 3 

287. 8 

312. 7 

332. 7 

352. 9 

362. 7 

383. 5 

401. 6 

417. 5 

443. 5 

465. 6 

500. 5 

543. 5 

590. 8 

631. 8 

694. 5 

754. 8 

809. 2 

864. 7 

948. 0 

1064. 3 

1172. 5 

1265. 5 

IVQ 

PERIOD 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.2 .

4.0 8 

4.2 7 

4.3 2 

4.8 0 

4.5 6 

4.7 4 

... 5.6 2 

5.5 9 

... 6.0 6 

5.7 0 

5.5 4 

5.4 5 

5.4 5 

5.5 4 

... 6.7 4 

7.3 8 

8.5 3 

8.7 6 

7.6 5 

7.5 7 

8.8 7 

... 9.4 2 

PERIOD 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.02.. 1 

2.3 6 

2.9 3 

3.2 3 

2.1 6 

3.9 9 

2.3 0 

2.4 0 

2.9 2 

3.4 5 

3.5 8 

4.1 7 

5.5 7 

4.1 7 

5.9 2 

8.9 4 

5.5 7 

4.7 5 

5.1 4 

10.0 0 

9.3 5 

5.4 1 

PERIOD 

... 

184. 2 

195. 7 

212. 8 

205. 6 

237. 4 

260. 8 

279. 0 

287. 4 

293. 4 

318. 2 

340. 0 

352. 6 

368. 2 

388. 7 

402. 3 

425. 5 

448. 6 

473. 6 

508. 5 

556. 0 

602. 5 

642. 8 

708. 5 

768. 0 

815. 9 

881. 4 

982. 6 

1095. 5 

1194. 1 

1299. 7 

Annual 

... 

... 

... 

4.3.4 .

... 4.2 3 

4.3 0 

... 4.6 0 

4.6 5 

... 

... 5.4 9 

... 6.1 6 

... 5.6 0 

5.4 6 

5.4 5 

5.4 7 

... 6.5 6 

... 

... 

... 

... 7.5 3 

... 

... 

... 

... 

• ■ • 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

1.7 8 

2.7 3 

3.1 1 

1.5 7 

3.3 0 

3.2 2 

1.9 6 

2.6 8 

3.1 8 

3.5 0 

4.0 7 

5.1 1 

4.2 2 

5.6 6 

8.2 1 

7.1 7 

4.6 6 

4.4 4 

8.7 4 

10.5 1 

5.8 2 

... 

177. 3 

189. 8 

208. 5 

205. 6 

226. 1 

253. 7 

270. 4 

286. 1 

288. 2 

308. 8 

330. 9 

349. 3 

359. 3 

382. 1 

399. 7 

415. 0 

440. 7 

463. 1 

495. 7 

537. 0 

584. 9 

626. 6 

685. 2 

745. 8 

801. 3 

859. 1 

942. 5 

1052. 4 

1153. 3 

1249. 7 

108 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949 . . . 

1950 . . . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972. . . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

53. 3 

54. 5 

64. 4 

71. 0 

72. 0 

70. 5 

76. 1 

79. 3 

79. 8 

80. 7 

80. 1 

80. 3 

82. 8 

85. 7 

86. 8 

87. 9 

89. 3 

89. 9 

91. 1 

92. 6 

93. 6 

95. 4 

98. 6 

102. 0 

106. 7 

113. 3 

119. 2 

123. 2 

127. 7 

139. 7 

156. 1 

Feb. 

53. 2 

54. 3 

64. 3 

70. 4 

71. 2 

70. 3 

77. 0 

78. 8 

79. 4 

80. 6 

80. 1 

80. 3 

83. 1 

85. 8 

86. 7 

88. 0 

89. 3 

90. 1 

91. 2 

92. 5 

93. 6 

96. 0 

98. 7 

102. 3 

107. 1 

113. 9 

119. 4 

123. 8 

128. 6 

141. 5 

157. 2 

Mar. Apr. 

320 . INDEX 

53. 2 

54. 7 

65. 7 

70. 2 

71. 4 

70. 6 

77. 3 

78. 8 

79. 6 

80. 5 

80. 1 

80. 4 

83. 3 

86. 4 

86. 7 

88. 0 

89. 3 

90. 3 

91. 3 

92. 6 

93. 7 

96. 3 

98. 9 

102. 8 

108. 0 

114. 5 

119. 8 

124. 0 

129. 8 

143. 1 

157. 8 

320-C . CHANGE IN 

Y.2 -0. 1 

-0. 4 

1 . 6 

-0. 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

1 . 0 

0 . 8 

0 . 6 

-0. 1 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

1 . 8 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

1 . 2 

0 . 6 

1 . 8 

-0. 7 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 9 

1 . 1 

0 . 4 

320-C . CHANGE IN 

8*.i 

-3. 2 

0 . 0 

12. 0 

2 . 3 

-0. 1 

-0. 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 7 

3 . 3 

4 . 5 

0 . 6 

1 . 4 

0 . 5 

1 . 7 

0 . 7 

1 . 4 

1 . 7 

4 . 0 

1 . 3 

4 . 0 

5 . 6 

6 . 6 

3 . 8 

3 . 5 

7 . 1 

11. 5 

8 . 0 

8 . 3 

-2. 1 

0 . 6 

11. 5 

1 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

1 . 2 

3 . 5 

3 . 7 

0 . 6 

1 . 5 

0 . 3 

1 . 7 

0 . 7 

1 . 2 

1 . 8 

3 . 9 

1 . 7 

4 . 0 

5 . 3 

6 . 5 

3 . 7 

3 . 5 

7 . 5 

12. 1 

7 . 1 

6 . 5 

-0. 9 

2 . 4 

7 . 8 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

-0. 2 

2 . 1 

3 . 5 

3 . 2 

1 . 1 

1 . 4 

0 . 1 

1 . 2 

1 . 5 

0 . 9 

2 . 3 

3 . 4 

2 . 3 

4 . 4 

5 . 9 

5 . 7 

3 . 9 

2 . 9 

8 . 3 

12. 5 

7 . 1 

53. 3 

55. 0 

65. 7 

71. 2 

71. 5 

70. 7 

77. 4 

79. 1 

79. 7 

80. 3 

80. 1 

80. 5 

83. 6 

86. 6 

86. 8 

88. 5 

89. 3 

90. 5 

91. 3 

92. 7 

94. 0 

96. 7 

99. 1 

103. 1 

108. 7 

115. 2 

120. 2 

124. 3 

130. 7 

143. 9 

158. 6 

INDEX OF 

May June 1 July 

OF CONSUMER PRICES , ALL 

(1967=100 ) 

53. 7 54. 2 

55. 3 55. 9 

65. 5 66. 0 

71. 7 72. 2 

71. 4 71. 5 

71. 0 71. 4 

77. 7 77. 6 

79. 2 79. 4 

79. 9 80. 2 

80. 6 80. 7 

80. 1 80. 1 

80. 9 81. 4 

83. 8 84. 3 

86. 6 86. 7 

86. 9 87. 3 

88. 5 88. 7 

89. 3 89. 4 

90. 5 90. 5 

91. 3 91. 7 

92. 7 92. 9 

94. 2 94. 7 

96. 8 97. 1 

99. 4 99. 7 

103. 4 104. 0 

109. 0 109. 7 

115. 7 116. 3 

120. 8 121. 5 

124. 7 125. 0 

131. 5 132. 4 

145. 5 146. 9 

159. 3 160. 6 

CONSUMER PRICES , 

54. 3 

59. 2 

66. 6 

73. 1 

71. 0 

72. 1 

77. 7 

80. 0 

80. 4 

80. 7 

80. 4 

82. 0 

84. 7 

86. 8 

87. 5 

88. 7 

89. 8 

90. 7 

92. 1 

93. 1 

94. 8 

97. 4 

100. 2 

104. 5 

110. 2 

116. 7 

121. 8 

125. 5 

132. 7 

148. 0 

162. 3 

Aug. Sept. 

ITEMS © 

54. 3 

60. 5 

67. 3 

73. 4 

71. 2 

72. 7 

77. 7 

80. 1 

80. 6 

80. 6 

80. 2 

81. 9 

84. 8 

86. 7 

87. 4 

88. 7 

89. 7 

90. 7 

92. 1 

93. 0 

94. 6 

97. 9 

100. 5 

104. 8 

110. 7 

116. 9 

122. 1 

125. 7 

135. 1 

149. 9 

162. 8 

ALL ITEMS, OVER 

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT) 

6!6 1 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 8 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

INDEX OP 

-0. 1 0. 6 

0 . 8 0. 6 

-0. 1 0. 1 

0 . 5 0. 5 

0 . 3 -0. 2 

0 . 0 0. 2 

0 . 1 0. 3 

0 . 3 0. 0 

-0. 1 -0. 2 

0 . 4 0. 4 

0 . 2 0. 4 

0 . 0 -0. 1 

0 . 2 0. 3 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 0 

0 . 1 -0. 2 

0 . 1 0. 3 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 4 

0 . 2 0. 1 

0 . 2 0. 4 

0 . 4 0. 5 

0 . 4 0. 6 

0 . 5 0. 3 

0 . 5 0. 5 

0 . 2 0. 2 

0 . 5 0. 6 

1 . 1 0. 9 

0 . 4 0. 8 

CONSUMER PRICES, 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, 

i'.i 6 . 2 

-2. 5 

4 . 7 

4 . 2 

1 . 7 

1 . 1 

-0. 5 

0 . 0 

3 . 5 

3 . 8 

1 . 8 

0 . 9 

1 . 3 

0 . 7 

1 . 3 

1 . 7 

0 . 5 

2 . 0 

3 . 6 

2 . 7 

4 . 6 

6 . 3 

5 . 4 

3 . 9 

3 . 3 

7 . 5 

11. 8 

7 . 4 

7 . 5 7. 9 

6 . 7 7. 5 

-1. 8 -1. 3 

5 . 1 6. 0 

0 . 2 1. 1 

1 . 9 2. 0 

1 . 9 1. 9 

-0. 9 -1. 0 

-0. 6 0. 3 

3 . 3 3. 4 

3 . 6 3. 4 

1 . 7 0. 2 

1 . 2 1. 9 

1 . 3 1. 4 

0 . 6 1. 0 

1 . 1 1. 6 

1 . 7 1. 4 

0 . 8 0. 9 

1 . 8 2. 0 

3 . 5 3. 5 

3 . 1 3. 7 

4 . 7 4. 5 

6 . 2 5. 8 

5 . 0 4. 9 

4 . 2 3. 9 

2 . 8 3. 2 

9 . 7 8. 6 

11. 9 11. 9 

6.8 7.0 

0 . 7 

1 .0 

-0. 9 

0 . 7 

-0. 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

-0. 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 9 

0 . 8 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 6 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

1 . 7 

1 . 3 

0 . 3 

ALL ITEMS, OVER 

PERCENT) 

B.'e 

4 . 2 

-2. 2 

7 . 2 

2 . 0 

1 . 6 

2 . 1 

-1. 1 

0 . 3 

4 . 3 

2 . 6 

-0. 2 

2 . 4 

1 . 3 

1 . 1 

1 . 0 

1 . 7 

1 . 1 

1 . 7 

3 . 6 

3 . 9 

5 . 3 

5 . 6 

4 . 9 

3 . 5 

3 . 4 

8 . 6 

12.6 

7 . 2 

10. 4 

1 . 3 

-1. 8 

7 . 2 

2 . 5 

1 . 5 

1 . 2 

-1. 3 

0 . 7 

3 . 6 

3 . 0 

0 . 0 

2 . 2 

1 . 5 

1 . 0 

1 . 0 

1 . 9 

1 . 4 

1 . 7 

3 . 3 

4 . 3 

5 . 5 

6 . 0 

4 . 9 

3 . 0 

3 . 6 

9 . 2 

12. 0 

7 . 4 

54. 1 

61. 2 

68. 9 

73. 4 

71. 5 

73. 2 

78. 2 

80. 0 

80. 7 

80. 4 

80. 5 

82. 0 

84. 9 

86. 7 

87. 7 

88. 8 

89. 9 

91. 2 

92. 1 

93. 2 

94. 8 

98. 1 

100. 7 

105. 1 

111. 2 

117. 5 

122. 2 

126. 2 

135. 5 

151. 7 

163. 6 

1-MONTH 

2.6 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

0 . 6 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

1 . 1 

0 . 4 

6-MONTH 

12! i 

-1. 0 

-2. 7 

9 . 4 

4 . 1 

1 . 3 

0 . 7 

-1. 4 

1 . 0 

3 . 6 

2 . 5 

0 . 3 

1 . 9 

1 . 5 

1 . 2 

1 . 2 

1 . 8 

1 . 5 

1 . 6 

3 . 2 

4 . 1 

5 . 1 

6 . 1 

5 . 2 

2 . 8 

3 . 7 

9 . 4 

11. 8 

6 . 8 

Oct. 

54. 1 

62. 4 

68. 9 

73. 1 

71. 1 

73. 6 

78. 6 

80. 1 

80. 9 

80. 2 

80. 5 

82. 5 

84. 9 

86. 7 

88. 0 

89. 2 

89. 9 

91. 1 

92. 2 

93. 3 

94. 9 

98. 5 

101. 0 

105. 7 

111. 6 

118. 1 

122. 4 

126. 6 

136. 6 

153. 0 

164. 6 

SPANS' 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

-0. 4 

0 . 6 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

-0. 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

0 . 9 

0 . 6 

SPANS ' 

n is 

-3. 3 

-1. 6 

11. 3 

4 . 2 

-0. 3 

1 . 2 

-0. 9 

0 . 5 

2 . 8 

3 . 2 

0 . 8 

1 . 6 

1 . 9 

0 . 7 

1 . 4 

1 . 6 

1 . 6 

1 . 8 

3 . 0 

4 . 2 

4 . 7 

6 . 3 

5 . 0 

2 . 8 

4 . 0 

11. 3 

12. 0 

6 . 1 

Nov. 

54. 3 

63. 9 

69. 3 

72. 6 

71. 2 

73. 9 

79. 0 

80. 1 

80. 6 

80. 3 

80. 6 

82. 5 

85. 2 

86. 8 

88. 0 

89. 3 

89. 9 

91. 1 

92. 3 

93. 5 

95. 1 

98. 5 

101. 3 

106. 1 

112. 2 

118. 5 

122. 6 

126. 9 

137. 6 

154. 3 

165. 6 

6.7 

-0. 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

-0. 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 8 

0 . 9 

0 . 5 

1 1 ! 5 

-4. 2 

-0. 8 

14. 0 

4 . 4 

-0. 6 

1 . 0 

-0. 4 

1 . 1 

3 . 6 

2 . 9 

0 . 4 

1 . 7 

1 . 7 

1 . 1 

1 . 3 

1 . 1 

1 . 6 

3 . 4 

2 . 2 

4 . 0 

4 . 8 

6 . 4 

4 . 5 

3 . 1 

5 . 2 

10. 2 

10. 4 

5 . 7 

Dec. 

54. 5 

64. 4 

70. 2 

72. 1 

70. 8 

74. 9 

79. 3 

80. 0 

80. 5 

80. 1 

80. 4 

82. 7 

85. 2 

86. 7 

88. 0 

89. 3 

89. 9 

91. 0 

92. 5 

93. 6 

95. 4 

98. 6 

101. 6 

106. 4 

112. 9 

119. 1 

123. 1 

127. 3 

138. 5 

155. 4 

166. 3 

1 . 4 

-0. 5 

-0. 4 

1 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 8 

0 . 5 

h'.8 

-3. 7 

-1. 0 

13. 1 

2 . 8 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

3 . 8 

4 . 0 

0 . 4 

1 . 1 

1 . 5 

1 . 3 

0 . 6 

1 . 4 

1 . 4 

3 . 5 

1 . 7 

4 . 2 

5 . 6 

6 . 4 

4 . 1 

3 . 3 

6 . 1 

11. 9 

8 . 8 

5 . 3 

1 Quarterly 

IQ 

53. 2 

54. 5 

64. 8 

70. 5 

71. 5 

70. 5 

76. 8 

79. 0 

79. 6 

80. 6 

80. 1 

80. 3 

83. 1 

86. 0 

86. 7 

88. 0 

89. 3 

90. 1 

91. 2 

92. 6 

93. 6 

95. 9 

98. 7 

102. 4 

107. 3 

113. 9 

119. 5 

123. 7 

128. 7 

141. 4 

157. 0 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

1 . 2 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

1 . 1 

0 . 6 

7 . 6 

-2. 1 

1 . 0 

10. 4 

1 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

1 . 3 

3 . 4 

3 . 8 

0 . 8 

1 . 4 

0 . 3 

1 . 5 

1 . 0 

1 . 2 

1 . 9 

3 . 8 

1 . 8 

4 . 1 

5 . 6 

6 . 3 

3 . 8 

3 . 3 

7 . 6 

12. 0 

7 . 4 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

53. 7 54. 2 

55. 4 60. 3 

65. 7 67. 6 

71. 7 73. 3 

71. 5 71. 2 

71. 0 72. 7 

77. 6 77. 9 

79. 2 80. 0 

79. 9 80. 6 

80. 5 80. 6 

80. 1 80. 4 

80. 9 82. 0 

83. 9 84. 8 

86. 6 86. 7 

87. 0 87. 5 

88. 6 88. 7 

89. 3 89. 8 

90. 5 90. 9 

91. 4 92. 1 

92. 8 93. 1 

94. 3 94. 7 

96. 9 97. 8 

99. 4 100. 5 

103. 5 104. 8 

109. 1 110. 7 

115. 7 117. 0 

120. 8 122. 0 

124. 7 125. 8 

131. 5 134. 4 

145. 4 149. 9 

159. 5 162. 9 

AVERAGE FOR 

6!2 l!2 

0 . 9 0. 3 

0 . 0 -0. 2 

0 . 4 0. 6 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 2 0. 1 

0 . 2 0. 1 

0 . 0 -0. 2 

-0. 1 0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 2 

0 . 3 0. 2 

0 . 0 0. 0 

0 . 2 0. 2 

0 . 2 0. 0 

0 . 0 0. 1 

0 . 0 0. 3 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 0 

0 . 2 0. 3 

0 . 3 0. 3 

0 . 4 0. 4 

0 . 5 0. 5 

0 . 4 0. 3 

0 . 4 0. 2 

0 . 2 0. 3 

0 . 6 0. 8 

0 . 9 1. 0 

0 . 6 0. 5 

AVERAGE FOR 

7.5 l6!5 

6 . 8 1. 5 

-1. 9 -2. 2 

5 . 3 7. 9 

1 . 8 2. 9 

1 . 9 1. 5 

1 . 6 1. 3 

-0. 8 -1. 3 

-0. 1 0. 7 

3 . 4 3. 8 

3 . 6 2. 7 

1 . 2 0. 0 

1 . 3 2. 2 

1 . 3 1. 4 

0 . 8 1. 1 

1 . 3 1. 1 

1 . 6 1. 8 

0 . 7 1. 3 

1 . 9 1. 7 

3 . 5 3. 4 

3 . 2 4. 1 

4 . 6 5. 3 

6 . 1 5. 9 

5 . 1 5. 0 

4 . 0 3. 1 

3 . 1 3. 6 

8 . 6 9. 1 

11. 9 12. 1 

7 . 1 7. 1 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

54. 3 

63. 6 

69. 5 

72. 6 

71. 0 

74. 1 

79. 0 

80. 1 

80. 7 

80. 2 

80. 5 

82. 6 

85. 1 

86. 7 

88. 0 

89. 3 

89. 9 

91. 1 

92. 3 

93. 5 

95. 1 

98. 5 

101. 3 

106. 1 

112. 2 

118. 6 

122. 7 

126. 9 

137. 6 

154. 2 

165. 5 

PERIOD 

0 . 8 

-0. 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 9 

0 . 6 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

0 . 9 

0 . 5 

PERIOD 

l6!3 

-3. 7 

-1. 1 

12.8 

3 . 8 

-0. 3 

0 . 8 

-0. 4 

0 . 6 

3 . 4 

3 . 4 

0 . 5 

1 . 5 

1 . 7 

1 . 0 

1 . 1 

1 . 4 

1 . 5 

2 . 9 

2 . 3 

4 . 1 

5 . 0 

6 . 4 

4 . 5 

3 . 1 

5 . 1 

11.1 

10.4 

5 . 7 

Annual 

53. 9 

58. 5 

66. 9 

72. 1 

71. 4 

72. 1 

77. 8 

79. 5 

80. 1 

80. 5 

80. 2 

81. 4 

84. 3 

86. 6 

87. 3 

88. 7 

89. 6 

90. 6 

91. 7 

92. 9 

94. 5 

97. 2 

100. 0 

104. 2 

109. 8 

116. 3 

121. 3 

125. 3 

133. 1 

147. 7 

161. 2 

6!2 

-0. 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

1 . 0 

0 . 6 

3!6 

-1. 8 

6 . 8 

4 . 7 

1 . 1 

1 . 0 

-0. 6 

0 . 3 

3 . 0 

3 . 3 

1 . 4 

1 . 4 

1 . 5 

0 . 8 

1 . 3 

1 . 4 

1 . 2 

2 . 1 

3 . 2 

3 . 3 

4 . 8 

6 . 0 

5 . 2 

3 . 5 

3 . 8 

9 . 1 

11. 6 

6 . 8 

'Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

BCD 1977 109 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Jan. 

67. 0 

76. 5 

74. 6 

71. 4 

80. 9 

84. 8 

83. 4 

83. 5 

81.6* 

80. 7 

83. 4 

87. 4 

87. 9 

86. 8 

89. 4 

89. 2 

91. 1 

92. 0 

92. 7 

96. 8 

99. 6 

101. 6 

106. 1 

113. 7 

115. 7 

120. 6 

128. 9 

154. 0 

171. 1 

K 3 

-0. 3 

-0. 8 

2 . 4 

-0. 1 

-0. 7 

0 . 7 

-0. 1 

-0. 4 

-0. 1 

2 . 0 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 5 

1 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 4 

0 . 6 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

-0. 4 

1 . 8 

1 . 4 

0 . 6 

8 . 7 

-6. 2 

-1. 4 

17. 5 

2 . 4 

-4. 5 

-0. 5 

0 . 7 

-0. 7 

2 . 2 

10. 1 

-2. 7 

2 . 3 

0 . 4 

2 . 3 

0 . 2 

2 . 0 

1 . 1 

8 . 4 

-3. 4 

3 . 8 

2 . 9 

6 . 8 

3 . 3 

5 . 1 

18. 9 

13. 5 

5 . 7 

Feb. 

67! 7 

76. 0 

74. 2 

72. 4 

83. 7 

84. 0 

83. 0 

83. 6 

82. 2 

80. 6 

84. 2 

87. 8 

87. 4 

86. 7 

89. 5 

89. 6 

91. 2 

92. 0 

92. 5 

98. 3 

99. 3 

102. 0 

105. 9 

114. 1 

115. 9 

122. 2 

131. 0 

157. 3 

171. 2 

322- C 

i!6 -0. 7 

-0. 5 

1 . 4 

3 . 5 

-0. 9 

-0. 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 7 

-0. 1 

1 . 0 

0 . 5 

-0. 6 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

1 . 5 

-0. 3 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

1 . 3 

1 . 6 

2 . 1 

0 . 1 

322- C 

... 

... 9 . 4 

-3. 4 

0 . 0 

17. 4 

0 . 5 

-4. 2 

2 . 2 

-0. 2 

1 . 7 

1 . 9 

9 . 1 

-3. 6 

2 . 5 

-0. 9 

2 . 5 

0 . 2 

1 . 1 

2 . 2 

7 . 0 

-2. 4 

4 . 2 

4 . 0 

5 . 8 

4 . 9 

4 . 9 

20. 3 

12. 9 

4 . 9 

Mar. 

777 

69. 7 

74. 3 

74. 2 

72. 3 

83. 2 

83. 7 

83. 0 

83. 3 

82. 3 

80. 8 

83. 9 

89. 5 

87. 0 

86. 9 

89. 4 

89. 9 

91. 0 

92. 0 

92. 9 

99. 1 

99. 0 

102. 2 

106. 1 

114. 1 

116. 8 

122. 3 

134. 3 

158. 8 

171. 0 

. CHANGE 

3.6 -2. 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

-0. 6 

-0. 4 

0 . 0 

-0. 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 4 

1 . 9 

-0. 5 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 8 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 8 

0 . 1 

2 . 5 

1 . 0 

-0. 1 

. CHANGE 

s!9 

-1. 6 

4 . 8 

8 . 5 

-2. 1 

-1. 7 

0 . 7 

-1. 0 

3 . 7 

3 . 1 

7 . 6 

-1. 6 

2 . 8 

-2. 0 

1 . 8 

2 . 2 

0 . 9 

5 . 4 

5 . 5 

-0. 4 

3 . 6 

5 . 4 

3 . 0 

5 . 4 

3 . 0 

21. 9 

11. 4 

5 . 5 

Apr. 

Monthly 

May June July 

322 . INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES, 

69. 0 

76. 2 

74. 3 

72. 3 

82. 8 

84. 3 

82. 5 

83. 2 

82. 3 

81. 1 

84. 0 

89. 8 

86. 7 

88. 1 

89. 2 

90. 0 

90. 6 

92. 0 

93. 3 

99. 2 

98. 7 

102. 7 

106. 9 

114. 5 

117. 8 

122. 4 

136. 6 

158. 6 

171. 3 

IN INDEX 

(1967-100 ) 

... ... 68. 7 69. 1 

77. 2 77. 7 

74. 0 74. 2 

72. 9 73. 7 

83. 0 82. 3 

84. 2 84. 0 

82. 6 83. 3 

83. 3 83. 2 

81. 8 81. 3 

81. 7 82. 5 

• 84. 2 84. 8 

89. 4 88. 9 

86. 5 87. 0 

88. 1 88. 1 

89. 0 88. 7 

89. 9 89. 6 

90. 8 91. 1 

92. 0 92. 2 

94. 1 95. 6 

98. 9 98. 8 

99. 0 99. 7 

103. 3 103. 2 

107. 6 108. 7 

115. 2 115. 1 

118. 5 119. 1 

122. 7 122. 9 

138. 3 139. 8 

160. 1 160. 3 

172. 5 174. 6 

69. 7 

78. 2 

72. 8 

75. 1 

82. 0 

84. 7 

82. 7 

83. 3 

81. 4 

83. 4 

85. 4 

88. 5 

86. 9 

87. 8 

89. 0 

89. 3 

91. 5 

92. 3 

95. 5 

98. 4 

100. 1 

103. 5 

109. 3 

115. 2 

119. 2 

123. 6 

140. 0 

159. 8 

177. 8 

OF CONSUMER PRICES, FOOD 

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT) 

-i!6 2 . 6 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 5 

0 . 7 

-0. 6 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

1 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 8 

0 . 4 

0 . 9 

0 . 1 

1 . 7 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

IN INDEX 

-0. 4 0. 6 

1 . 3 0. 6 

-0. 4 0. 3 

0 . 8 1. 1 

0 . 2 -0. 8 

-0. 1 -0. 2 

0 . 1 0. 8 

0 . 1 -0. 1 

-0. 6 -0. 6 

0 . 7 1. 0 

0 . 2 0. 7 

-0. 4 -0. 6 

-0. 2 0. 6 

0 . 0 0. 0 

-0. 2 -0. 3 

-0. 1 -0. 3 

0 . 2 0. 3 

0 . 0 0. 2 

0 . 9 1. 6 

-0. 3 -0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 7 

0 . 6 -0. 1 

0 . 7 1. 0 

0 . 6 -0. 1 

0 . 6 0. 5 

0 . 2 0. 2 

1 . 2 1. 1 

0 . 9 0. 1 

0 . 7 1. 2 

0 . 9 

0 . 6 

-1. 9 

1 . 9 

-0. 4 

0 . 8 

-0. 7 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

1 . 1 

0 . 7 

-0. 4 

-0. 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 1 

-0. 3 

1 . 8 

OF CONSUMER PRICES, FOOD 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

8^2 

4 . 5 

-4. 8 

10. 6 

2 . 7 

-0. 2 

-1. 7 

-0. 5 

-0. 5 

6 . 8 

4 . 9 

2 . 5 

-2. 3 

2 . 3 

-0. 9 

0 . 2 

0 . 9 

0 . 7 

6 . 1 

3 . 3 

1 . 0 

3 . 8 

6 . 1 

2 . 7 

6 . 1 

5 . 0 

18. 0 

7 . 7 

8 . 0 

9 . 4 9. 1 

5 . 1 8. 2 

-3. 5 -1. 9 

9 . 0 9. 6 

-4. 7 -2. 9 

2 . 2 1. 4 

0 . 2 0. 7 

-1. 2 -2. 4 

-2. 7 -1. 5 

5 . 0 5. 0 

5 . 1 4. 6 

1 . 4 -3. 1 

-1. 4 0. 0 

3 . 3 3. 0 

-1. 6 -1. 3 

0 . 2 1. 8 

0 . 9 0. 4 

0 . 4 1. 7 

5 . 5 4. 4 

3 . 1 2. 0 

2 . 4 3. 1 

3 . 8 4. 4 

7 . 5 8. 5 

1 . 8 2. 6 

6 . 0 4. 0 

2 . 8 4. 0 

28. 5 21. 8 

6 . 2 8. 1 

7 . 5 8. 2 

12. 2 

1 . 3 

-4. 0 

11. 7 

1 . 2 

0 . 2 

2 . 2 

-2. 9 

-2. 2 

5 . 0 

3 . 8 

-4. 2 

0 . 9 

2 . 1 

-0. 4 

1 . 1 

1 . 1 

1 . 7 

4 . 3 

2 . 4 

4 . 3 

5 . 3 

7 . 4 

2 . 5 

2 . 7 

4 . 8 

18. 8 

10. 3 

9 . 8 

Aug. 

POOD 

70i 8 

77. 9 

72. 9 

75. 6 

81. 7 

84. 9 

83. 1 

83. 1 

81. 1 

82. 6 

86. 3 

88. 4 

86. 8 

88. 1 

88. 8 

89. 7 

91. 6 

92. 2 

95. 0 

99. 8 

100. 5 

103. 9 

109. 8 

115. 1 

119. 3 

123. 9 

148. 5 

162. 1 

177. 5 

, OVER 1 

i!6 -0. 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 7 

-0. 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

-0. 2 

-0. 4 

-1. 0 

1 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

• 0. 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 5 

1 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

6 . 1 

1 . 4 

-0. 2 

, OVER 6 

15. 4 

-4. 9 

-3. 0 

10. 4 

2 . 4 

0 . 5 

-0. 5 

-3. 3 

-1. 9 

4 . 2 

3 . 4 

-2. 9 

1 . 2 

3 . 0 

-0. 4 

1 . 8 

1 . 5 

2 . 4 

3 . 2 

2 . 6 

4 . 5 

4 . 3 

8 . 3 

0 . 9 

2 . 2 

5 . 6 

18. 7 

10. 6 

9 . 2 

Sept. 

li'.'e 

77. 3 

73. 5 

75. 7 

82. 0 

84. 3 

83. 3 

82. 3 

81. 7 

82. 8 

85. 8 

88. 1 

87. 0 

88. 2 

88. 8 

90. 7 

91. 2 

92. 8 

94. 9 

100. 1 

100. 5 

104. 4 

110. 5 

115. 6 

119. 1 

124. 7 

148. 2 

165. 1 

177. 9 

Oct. 

73l l 

76. 7 

72. 8 

76. 4 

83. 3 

84. 4 

83. 4 

82. 0 

81. 4 

83. 1 

85. 6 

87. 9 

87. 1 

89. 0 

89. 0 

90. 5 

91. 1 

92. 8 

95. 3 

100. 4 

100. 8 

105. 4 

110. 8 

115. 9 

119. 4 

125. 3 

148. 9 

166. 6 

179. 5 

-MONTH SPANS1 

y.s -0. 8 

0 . 8 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 7 

0 . 2 

-1. 0 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

-0. 6 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

1 . 1 

-0. 4 

0 . 7 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 6 

-0. 2 

1 . 9 

0 . 2 

-MONTH S 

1 9 M 

-7. 3 

-5. 8 

14. 9 

6 . 4 

0 . 0 

-1. 0 

-3. 6 

-0. 7 

2 . 4 

2 . 1 

-2. 7 

-0. 2 

3 . 4 

0 . 2 

1 . 1 

1 . 5 

2 . 0 

1 . 3 

2 . 2 

3 . 4 

5 . 3 

8 . 8 

1 . 6 

3 . 4 

6 . 1 

18. 1 

12. 5 

7 . 5 

0 . 4 

-0. 8 

-1. 0 

0 . 9 

1 . 6 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 4 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 9 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

1 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 9 

0 . 9 

PANS' 

20^5 

-9. 0 

-3. 8 

16. 0 

6 . 9 

-3. 0 

1 . 9 

-4. 0 

-1. 7 

0 . 0 

4 . 7 

-1. 4 

-0. 2 

3 . 7 

0 . 4 

4 . 1 

1 . 1 

0 . 9 

2 . 7 

2 . 5 

3 . 0 

5 . 1 

8 . 2 

0 . 9 

2 . 4 

8 . 8 

21. 0 

14. 6 

3 . 7 

Nov. 

73i 8 

75. 3 

72. 9 

76. 6 

84. 0 

84. 4 

82. 4 

81. 9 

81. 0 

83. 4 

85. 6 

88. 1 

87. 0 

89. 4 

88. 8 

90. 7 

91. 5 

93. 1 

95. 6 

100. 2 

101. 2 

105. 5 

112. 0 

115. 7 

119. 8 

126. 1 

150. 7 

168. 4 

180. 3 

i!6 -1. 8 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 8 

0 . 0 

-1. 2 

-0. 1 

-0. 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

1 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

1 . 2 

1 . 1 

0 . 4 

15^2 

-9. 3 

-1. 4 

22. 6 

5 . 7 

-4. 4 

1 . 2 

-2. 2 

-1. 2 

3 . 9 

3 . 5 

-2. 2 

-0. 2 

3 . 2 

1 . 8 

3 . 4 

0 . 9 

0 . 7 

7 . 1 

-1. 0 

3 . 0 

3 . 9 

8 . 0 

1 . 4 

4 . 9 

11. 8 

12. 2 

11. 5 

2 . 3 

Dec. 

75! 5 

74. 8 

72. 0 

79. 0 

84. 9 

84. 0 

82. 9 

81. 7 

81. 0 

83. 5 

85. 7 

87. 7 

86. 9 

89. 6 

88. 8 

90. 1 

91. 8 

93. 1 

96. 2 

99. 9 | 

101. 4 j 

105. 9 

113. 4 

116. 0 

121. 1 

126. 6 

151.9 ! 

170. 0 

181. 0 

y.ii -0. 7 

-1. 2 

3 . 1 

1 . 1 

-0. 5 

0 . 6 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 7 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 6 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

1 . 2 

0 . 3 

1 . 1 

0 . 4 

o.gi 

1 . 0 j 

0 . 4 

4 ! 2 

-7. 9 

-3. 2 

20. 8 

4 . 2 

-3. 1 

0.01 

0 . 0 

-2. 2 

2 . 7 

8 . 8 

-2. 5 

-0. 2 

2 . 7 

2 . 5 

0 . 7 

1 . 8 

0 . 2 

9 . 0 

-2. 2 

3 . 4 

3 . 3 

6 . 6 

2 . 1 

5 . 4 

16. 0 

14. 8 

7 . 3 

0 . 7 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

68. 1 

75. 6 

74. 3 

72. 0 

82. 6 

84. 2 

83. 1 

83. 5 

82. 0 

80. 7 

83. 8 

88. 2 

87. 4 

86. 8 

89. 4 

89. 6 

91. 1 

92. 0 

92. 7 

98. 1 

99. 3 

101. 9 

106. 0 

114. 0 

116. 1 

121. 7 

131. 4 

156. 7 

171. 1 

-6!s 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

1 . 8 

-0. 5 

-0. 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

1 . 5 

-0. 3 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

1 . 0 

-0. 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

2 . 0 

1 . 5 

0 . 2 

8*.0 

-3. 7 

1 . 1 

14. 5 

0 . 3 

-3. 5 

0 . 8 

-0. 2 

1 . 6 

2 . 4 

8 . 9 

-2. 6 

2 . 5 

-0. 8 

2 . 2 

0 . 9 

1 . 3 

2 . 9 

7 . 0 

-2. 1 

3 . 9 

4 . 1 

| 5. 2 

4 . 5 

4 . 3 

20. 4 

12. 6 

5 . 4 

II Q IIIQ 

AVERAGE FOR 

68. 9 7l! i 

77. 0 77. 8 

74. 2 73. 1 

73. 0 75. 5 

82. 7 81. 9 

84. 2 84. 6 

82. 8 83. 0 

83. 2 82. 9 

81. 8 81. 4 

81. 8 82. 9 

84. 3 85. 8 

89. 4 88. 3 

86. 7 86. 9 

88. 1 88. 0 

89. 0 88. 9 

89. 8 89. 9 

90. 8 91. 4 

92. 1 92. 4 

94. 3 95. 1 

99. 0 99. 4 

99. 1 100. 4 

103. 1 103. 9 

107. 7 109. 9 

114. 9 115. 3 

118. 5 119. 2 

122. 7 124. 1 

138. 2 145. 6 

159. 7 162. 3 

172. 8 177. 7 

AVERAGE FOR 

-t)'.3 K 8 

1 . 5 -0. 2 

0 . 0 -0. 3 

0 . 6 0. 9 

-0. 4 -0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 0 

0 . 0 -0. 4 

-0. 4 0. 1 

0 . 7 0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 4 

-0. 2 -0. 3 

0 . 0 0. 0 

0 . 5 0. 0 

-0. 2 0. 0 

-0. 1 0. 4 

0 . 0 0. 0 

0 . 1 0. 2 

1 . 0 -0. 2 

-0. 1 0. 4 

0 . 2 0. 3 

0 . 3 0. 4 

0 . 8 0. 6 

0 . 3 0. 1 

0 . 7 0. 0 

0 . 2 0. 5 

1 . 3 2. 0 

0 . 3 1. 0 

0 . 7 0. 6 

AVERAGE FOR 

8 . 9 15. 7 

5 . 9 -3. 6 

-3. 4 -4. 3 

9 . 7 12. 3 

-1. 6 3. 3 

1 . 1 0. 2 

-0. 3 0. 2 

-1. 4 -3. 3 

-1. 6 -1. 6 

5 . 6 3. 9 

4 . 9 3. 1 

0 . 3 -3. 3 

-1. 2 0. 6 

2 . 9 2. 8 

-1. 3 -0. 2 

0 . 7 1. 3 

0 . 7 1. 4 

0 . 9 2. 0 

5 . 3 2. 9 

2 . 8 2. 4 

2 . 2 4. 1 

4 . 0 5. 0 

7 . 4 8. 2 

2 . 4 1. 7 

5 . 4 2. 8 

3 . 9 5. 5 

22. 8 18. 5 

7 . 3 11. 1 

7 . 9 8. 8 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

74. 1 

75. 6 

72. 6 

77. 3 

84. 1 

84. 3 

82. 9 

81. 9 

81. 1 

83. 3 

85. 6 

87. 9 

87. 0 

89. 3 

88. 9 

90. 4 

91. 5 

93. 0 

95. 7 

100. 2 

101. 1 

105. 6 

112. 1 j 

115. 9 

120. 1 

126. 0 

150. 5 

168. 3 

180. 3 1 

PERIOD 

K 2 

-1. 1 

-0. 7 

1 . 4 

1 . 2 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

-0. 2 j 

-0. 3 ! 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 5 i 

0 . 0 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 1

 ! 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 9 

0 . 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 8 

1 . 0 

0 . 6 

PERIOD 

1J!3 

-8. 7 

-2. 8 

19. 8 1 

5 . 6 

-3. 5 

1 . 0 

-2. 1 

-1. 7 

2 . 2 ! 

5 . 7 

-2. 0 

-0. 2 

3 . 2 

1 . 6 

2 . 7 

1 . 3 

0 . 6 

6 . 3 

-0. 2 

3 . 1 

4 . 1 

7 . 6 

1 . 5 

4 . 2 

12. 2 

16. 0 

11. 1 

2 . 2 

L , 

Annual 

50. 7 

58. 1 

70. 6 

76. 6 

73. 5 

74. 5 

82. 8 

84. 3 

83. 0 

82. 8 

81. 6 

82. 2 

1 84. 9 

88. 5 

87. 1 

88. 0 

89. 1 

89. 9 

1 91. 2 

92. 4 

94. 4 

99. 1 

100. 0 

103. 6 

108. 9 

115. 0 

118. 4 

123. 5 

141. 4 

161. 7 

175. 4 

-0. 1 

-0. 3 

| 0. 8 

0 . 6 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

1 0. 4 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

1 . 5 

1 . 0 

0 . 5 

6!4 

-3. 5 

10. 8 

5 . 4 

-0. 5 

-0. 6 

-1. 5 

-1. 3 

3 . 3 

4 . 0 

1 . 0 

-0. 9 

2 . 9 

-0. 2 

1 . 8 

1 . 1 

1 . 2 

4 . 4 

3 . 0 

1 . 8 

4 . 2 

6 . 8 

2 . 7 

4 . 2 

6 . 5 

19. 4 

10. 6 

6 . 1 

1 Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

110 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

194b.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

194y.. . 

I9b0 . . . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955. . . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972. . . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

54. 1 

55. 2 

73. 2 

82. 9 

81. 6 

77. 6 

91. 2 

89. 7 

87. 2 

88. 0 

87. 4 

88. 8 

92. 7 

94. 3 

94. 8 

94. 7 

95. 2 

95. 0 

94. 7 

95. 2 

95. 2 

98. 6 

100. 1 

101. 1 

104. 3 

109. 3 

111. 8 

116. 3 

124. 5 

146. 6 

171. 8 

330- C 

2!o 

-1. 1 

0 . 0 

2 . 4 

-0. 6 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

1 . 1 

3 . 2 

0 . 1 

330- C 

8.9 

-8. 3 

2 . 1 

17. 6 

-3. 0 

-3. 0 

1 . 1 

1 . 1 

3 . 1 

2 . 1 

1 . 8 

1 . 1 

1 . 0 

-0. 8 

0 . 4 

-1. 8 

-0. 4 

1 . 8 

4 . 4 

-2. 0 

3 . 4 

4 . 1 

3 . 9 

3 . 6 

4 . 6 

17. 7 

20. 5 

2 . 1 

Feb. 

54. 2 

55. 5 

73. 9 

81. 3 

80. 3 

78. 0 

92. 5 

89. 3 

87. 0 

87. 7 

87. 7 

89. 2 

92. 8 

94. 4 

94. 8 

94. 7 

95. 2 

94. 9 

94. 4 

94. 7 

95. 4 

99. 3 

99. 9 

101. 9 

104. 8 

109. 7 

112. 8 

117. 3 

126. 9 

149. 5 

171. 3 

CHANGE 

-l! 5 

-1. 2 

0 . 8 

1 . 8 

-0. 2 

-0. 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

-0. 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

-0. 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 7 

0 . 7 

1 . 8 

1 . 8 

-0. 5 

CHANGE 

sis -8. 7 

5 . 4 

13. 8 

-2. 9 

-1. 2 

1 . 7 

-0. 5 

5 . 4 

1 . 4 

1 . 9 

0 . 8 

1 . 3 

-1. 4 

0 . 3 

-1. 2 

-1. 2 

2 . 6 

3 . 8 

-0. 8 

3 . 2 

4 . 7 

2 . 4 

4 . 2 

4 . 9 

20. 0 

21. 9 

0 . 3 

Mar. Apr. May June 

330 . INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES 

54. 3 

56. 2 

75. 7 

81. 3 

80. 1 

78. 1 

92. 5 

89. 2 

87. 3 

87. 7 

87. 3 

89. 5 

92. 7 

95. 0 

94. 9 

95. 2 

95. 2 

94. 9 

94. 2 

94. 6 

95. 5 

99. 3 

99. 6 

102. 1 

105. 4 

109. 9 

113. 1 

117. 4 

129. 8 

151. 4 

170. 4 

IN INDEX 

-6 ".3 

-0. 5 

-0. 2 

-0. 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

2 . 4 

1 . 4 

-0. 4 

IN INDEX 

k'.9 

-8. 7 

7 . 3 

7 . 1 

-2. 9 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

1 . 5 

5 . 1 

1 . 6 

0 . 7 

0 . 7 

1 . 1 

-2. 0 

-0. 7 

-0. 2 

-0. 6 

4 . 0 

2 . 5 

0 . 0 

2 . 6 

5 . 3 

2 . 2 

4 . 9 

3 . 8 

20. 6 

19. 1 

1 . 4 

(1967=100 ) 

54. 5 54. 7 54. 8 

56. 8 57. 2 58. 2 

75. 2 74. 8 74. 8 

82. 0 82. 4 83. 0 

79. 3 78. 6 77. 9 

78. 1 79. 1 79. 5 

92. 3 92. 0 91. 3 

88. 7 88. 6 88. 2 

86. 8 87. 2 86. 9 

88. 1 88. 0 87. 3 

87. 7 87. 2 87. 6 

90. 2 90. 8 90. 7 

93. 0 92. 9 93. 2 

94. 7 94. 8 94. 6 

95. 2 95. 2 95. 0 

95. 2 95. 0 94. 8 

94. 7 94. 3 93. 8 

94. 6 94. 4 94. 3 

94. 0 94. 3 94. 5 

94. 5 94. 3 94. 3 

95. 9 96. 2 96. 9 

99. 4 99. 5 99. 6 

99. 2 99. 7 100. 2 

102. 1 102. 4 102. 5 

105. 5 106. 3 106. 8 

110. 0 110. 0 110. 4 

113. 4 113. 9 114. 4 

117. 5 118. 2 118. 8 

130. 5 133. 2 136. 0 

152. 7 155. 0 155. 7 

172. 1 173. 2 173. 7 

OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALI 

July Aug. 

, ALL COMMODITIES 

54. 7 

64. 4 

75. 6 

83. 7 

77. 8 

81. 7 

90. 7 

88. 7 

88. 0 

87. 7 

87. 7 

90. 5 

93. 8 

94. 6 

94. 8 

95. 0 

94. 2 

94. 6 

94. 8 

94. 6 

97. 0 

100. 3 

100. 3 

102. 8 

107. 0 

110. 9 

114. 7 

119. 7 

134. 3 

161. 7 

175. 7 

54. 5 

66. 5 

76. 6 

84. 3 

77. 9 

83. 5 

90. 2 

89. 1 

87. 7 

87. 7 

88. 0 

91. 0 

94. 0 

94. 5 

94. 5 

94. 6 

94. 3 

94. 7 

94. 6 

94. 5 

97. 0 

100. 7 

100. 0 

102. 5 

106. 9 

110. 4 

115. 1 

119. 9 

142. 1 

167. 4 

176. 7 

Sept. 

® 

54. 3 

64. 0 

78. 1 

84. 2 

78. 0 

85. 0 

90. 0 

88. 7 

88. 1 

87. 3 

88. 7 

91. 7 

93. 7 

94. 5 

95. 0 

94. 6 

94. 3 

95. 4 

94. 5 

94. 9 

97. 1 

100. 7 

100. 1 

102. 9 

107. 1 

111. 0 

114. 6 

120. 2 

139. 7 

167. 2 

177. 7 

Oct. 

54. 6 

69. 2 

79. 1 

83. 3 

77. 7 

85. 5 

90. 2 

88. 2 

87. 5 

87. 1 

88. 6 

91. 7 

93. 5 

94. 4 

94. 5 

94. 9 

94. 3 

94. 8 

94. 7 

95. 0 

97. 2 

100. 1 

100. 1 

102. 9 

107. 4 

110. 9 

114. 5 

120. 0 

138. 7 

170. 2 

178. 9 

, COMMODITIES, OVER 1-MONTH SPANS 

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT) 

'.'.'. -o'.i o!i 

1 . 4 0. 7 1. 1 

-0. 5 -0. 7 -0. 5 

0 . 5 1. 4 0. 9 

0 . 2 -0. 3 -0. 3 

-0. 3 -0. 1 0. 0 

-0. 4 0. 5 0. 0 

0 . 4 0. 0 -0. 5 

0 . 4 -0. 5 0. 7 

0 . 6 0. 7 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 0 0. 5 

-0. 4 0. 3 -0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 1 -0. 1 

0 . 1 -0. 1 -0. 1 

-0. 4 -0. 3 -0. 4 

-0. 2 -0. 1 -0. 1 

-0. 1 0. 4 0. 2 

0 . 0 -0. 2 -0. 1 

0 . 5 0. 3 0. 6 

0 . 2 0. 0 0. 0 

-0. 1 0. 3 0. 4 

0 . 3 0. 1 0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 8 0. 4 

0 . 1 0. 0 0. 2 

0 . 4 0. 4 0. 3 

0 . 1 0. 5 0. 3 

0 . 5 1. 9 1. 8 

0 . 9 1. 3 0. 3 

0 . 9 0. 5 0. 1 

OF WHOLESALE PRICES, ALL 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, 

3 . 3 6'. 7 6. 3 

-8. 0 -6. 7 -5. 9 

11. 9 13. 7 17. 6 

-0. 3 -5. 8 -6. 0 

-1. 6 -1. 1 -1. 8 

2 . 3 1. 2 1. 1 

-0. 4 -0. 3 -1. 4 

0 . 7 0. 5 2. 8 

3 . 9 4. 1 4. 6 

2 . 5 2. 9 2. 1 

0 . 8 0. 6 -0. 9 

0 . 3 -0. 2 0. 6 

0 . 9 0. 2 -0. 7 

. -1. 7 -1. 4 -1. 3 

-0. 5 0. 0 1. 5 

0 . 5 0. 9 1. 0 

-1. 1 0. 0 0. 8 

3 . 8 3. 9 3. 6 

3 . 3 3. 4 3. 1 

0 . 0 1. 2 1. 6 

3 . 2 2. 2 2. 4 

4 . 7 4. 7 3. 8 

2 . 2 1. 7 2. 2 

4 . 3 4. 1 3. 0 

4 . 7 4. 1 4. 7 

14. 6 24. 3 15. 0 

20. 1 24. 5 21. 1 

2 . 8 5. 4 7. 6 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

-0. 7 

2 . 2 

-1. 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 9 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

-0. 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 6 

-1. 5 

3 . 6 

0 . 8 

0 . 7 

0 . 1 

-0. 5 

1 . 6 

-1. 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 7 

-0. 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

-0. 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 6 

0 . 4 

6 . 0 

3 . 6 

0 . 8 

1 . 6 

-0. 5 

-0. 1 

1 . 5 

-0. 4 

-0. 6 

0 . 3 

-0. 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 6 

-0. 5 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 7 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

-0. 3 

0 . 4 

-1. 6 

0 . 0 

0 . 6 

COMMODITIES, OVER 6-MON1 

PERCENT) 

9!6 

1 . 9 

-5. 0 

18. 7 

-5. 1 

-1. 5 

1 . 6 

-2. 0 

2 . 5 

4 . 0 

1 . 9 

0 . 0 

-0. 8 

-0. 1 

-0. 5 

0 . 6 

1 . 6 

1 . 1 

2 . 9 

1 . 7 

2 . 2 

2 . 4 

4 . 6 

2 . 6 

2 . 8 

5 . 0 

13. 6 

24. 5 

8 . 2 

11. 3 

-0. 5 

-4. 1 

18. 5 

-4. 7 

-2. 1 

0 . 0 

-1. 4 

2 . 7 

3 . 3 

2 . 3 

0 . 0 

-1. 5 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

1 . 0 

1 . 2 

1 . 3 

3 . 0 

1 . 1 

2 . 0 

3 . 2 

4 . 6 

2 . 9 

2 . 7 

5 . 8 

11. 0 

24. 6 

7 . 2 

15. 1 

-3. 6 

-3. 0 

22. 9 

-4. 1 

-3. 6 

0 . 6 

-1. 0 

1 . 8 

3 . 8 

2 . 3 

0 . 2 

-1. 4 

0 . 0 

1 . 7 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

1 . 4 

2 . 9 

1 . 0 

2 . 0 

3 . 2 

4 . 4 

2 . 4 

3 . 7 

8 . 6 

10. 3 

22. 7 

7 . 2 

1 . 6 

-0. 7 

0 . 0 

1 . 0 

0 . 7 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

-0. 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

-0. 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

2 . 3 

1 . 2 

H SPANS' 

18i 7 

-6. 2 

-1. 6 

23. 3 

-2. 9 

-3. 9 

-0. 4 

-0. 9 

2 . 5 

4 . 8 

1 . 0 

0 . 1 

-0. 6 

0 . 1 

1 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 6 

1 . 2 

3 . 5 

-0. 2 

2 . 0 

3 . 1 

5 . 1 

2 . 4 

3 . 9 

9 . 6 

20. 9 

14. 5 

6 . 0 

Nov. 

55. 0 

72. 1 

79. 9 

83. 1 

77. 7 

86. 7 

90. 2 

87. 8 

87. 2 

87. 3 

88. 2 

92. 0 

93. 7 

94. 6 

94. 3 

94. 9 

94. 3 

94. 9 

94. 9 

94. 9 

97. 5 

99. 8 

100. 1 

103. 3 

108. 1 

110. 9 

114. 6 

120. 7 

139. 2 

171. 9 

178. 2 

6*. 8 

-0. 5 

-0. 2 

1 . 3 

-0. 1 

-0. 4 

-0. 3 

0 . 3 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 9 

0 . 7 

1 . 3 

0 . 0 

13'.5 

-8. 6 

1 . 1 

23. 7 

-1. 2 

-4. 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

2 . 9 

3 . 9 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 8 

0 . 8 

-1. 1 

-0. 3 

1 . 5 

4 . 3 

-2. 6 

2 . 8 

3 . 5 

4 . 9 

4 . 2 

4 . 0 

12. 6 

11. 5 

5 . 7 

4 . 0 

Dec. 

55. 2 

72. 7 

81. 4 

82. 6 

77. 6 

89. 0 

90. 1 

87. 0 

87. 4 

86. 9 

88. 3 

92. 3 

94. 1 

94. 6 

94. 3 

94. 8 

94. 6 

94. 6 

94. 5 

94. 9 

98. 1 

99. 8 

100. 8 

103. 6 

108. 6 

111. 0 

115. 6 

122. 9 

141. 8 

171. 5 

178. 7 

2*.6 

-0. 5 

0 . 0 

2 . 8 

0 . 0 

-0. 8 

0 . 3 

-0. 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 3 

-0. 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 6 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 8 

1 . 6 

1 . 5 

-0. 5 

0 . 1 

9 . 4 

-8. 7 

1 . 0 

19. 4 

-1. 0 

-2. 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 5 

2 . 3 

2 . 5 

2 . 7 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

0 . 7 

0 . 9 

-2. 9 

0 . 0 

1 . 1 

4 . 3 

-2. 8 

3 . 2 

4 . 1 

5 . 1 

3 . 5 

4 . 9 

17. 0 

18. 3 

4 . 9 

3 . 3 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

54. 2 

55. 6 

74. 3 

: 81. 8 

!

 80. 7 

77. 9 

92. 1 

89. 4 

87. 2 

87. 8 

! 87. 5 

89. 2 

92. 7 

94. 6 

94. 8 

94. 9 

i 95. 2 

1 94.9 

i 94. 4 

94. 8 

95. 4 

99. 1 

99. 9 

101. 7 

104. 8 

109. 6 

112. 6 

117. 0 

127. 1 

149. 2 

171. 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 9 

0 . 2 

1 . 3 

-0. 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

1 . 8 

2 . 1 

-0. 3 

8 . 2 

-8. 6 

4 . 9 

12. 8 

-2. 9 

-1. 3 

0 . 9 

0 . 7 

4 . 5 

1 . 7 

1 . 5 

0 . 9 

1 . 1 

-1. 4 

0 . 0 

-1. 1 

-0. 7 

2 . 8 

3 . 6 

-0. 9 

3 . 1 

4 . 7 

2 . 8 

4 . 2 

4 . 4 

19. 4 

20. 5 

1 . 3 

I 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

54. 7 54. 5 

57. 4 65. 0 

74. 9 76. 8 

82. 5 84. 1 

78. 6 77. 9 

78. 9 83. 4 

91. 9 90. 3 

88. 5 88. 8 

87. 0 87. 9 

87. 8 87. 6 

87. 5 88. 1 

90. 6 91. 1 

93. 0 93. 8 

94. 7 94. 5 

95. 1 94. 8 

95. 0 94. 7 

94. 3 94. 3 

94. 4 94. 9 

94. 3 94. 6 

94. 4 94. 7 

96. 3 97. 0 

99. 5 100. 6 

99. 7 100. 1 

102. 3 102. 7 

106. 2 107. 0 

110. 1 110. 8 

113. 9 114. 8 

118. 2 119. 9 

133. 2 138. 7 

154. 5 165. 4 

173. 0 176. 7 

AVERAGE FOR 

. . . 6!9 

1 . 1 0. 0 

-0. 6 -0. 4 

0 . 9 1. 8 

-0. 1 -0. 9 

-0. 1 -0. 2 

0 . 0 0. 2 

0 . 0 -0. 2 

0 . 2 0. 3 

0 . 5 0. 3 

0 . 2 0. 1 

-0. 1 -0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 0 

0 . 0 -0. 1 

-0. 4 0. 2 

-0. 1 0. 4 

0 . 2 0. 0 

-0. 1 0. 2 

0 . 5 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 4 

0 . 2 0. 1 

0 . 2 0. 2 

0 . 5 0. 2 

0 . 1 0. 3 

0 . 4 0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 5 

1 . 4 1. 0 

0 . 8 2. 4 

0 . 5 0. 7 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

54. 9 

71. 3 

80. 1 

83. 0 

77. 7 

87. 1 

90. 2 

87. 7 

87. 4 

87. 1 

88. 4 

92. 0 

93. 8 

94. 5 

94. 4 

94. 9 

94. 4 

94. 8 

94. 7 

94. 9 

97. 6 

99. 9 

100. 3 

103. 3 

108. 0 

110. 9 

114. 9 

121. 2 

139. 9 

171. 2 

178. 6 

PERIOD 

i.5 

-0. 6 

-0. 1 

1 . 7 

0 . 2 

-0. 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

-0. 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 9 

0 . 7 

1 . 0 

0 . 4 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

11. 8 

5 . 4 -0. 7 

-6. 9 -4. 0 

14. 4 20. 0 

-4. 0 -4. 6 

-1. 5 -2. 4 

1 . 5 0. 7 

-0. 7 -1. 5 

1 . 3 2. 3 

4 . 2 3. 7 

2 . 5 2. 2 

0 . 2 0. 1 

0 . 2 -1. 2 

0 . 1 0. 0 

-1. 5 0. 4 

0 . 3 0. 7 

0 . 8 0. 9 

-0. 1 1. 3 

3 . 8 2. 9 

3 . 3 1. 3 

0 . 9 2. 1 

2 . 6 2. 9 

4 . 4 4. 5 

2 . 0 2. 6 

3 . 8 3. 1 

4 . 5 6. 5 

18. 0 11. 6 

21. 9 23. 9 

5 . 3 7. 5 

... 

13. 9 

-7. 8 

0 . 2 

22. 1 

-1. 7 

-3. 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

2 . 6 

3 . 7 

1 . 4 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 5 

1 . 0 

-1. 4 

0 . 1 

1 . 3 

4 . 0 

-1. 9 

2 . 7 

3 . 6 

5 . 0 

3 . 4 

4 . 3 

13. 1 

16. 9 

8 . 4 

4 . 4 

Annual 

54. 6 

62. 3 

76. 5 

82. 8 

78. 7 

81. 8 

91. 1 

88. 6 

87. 4 

1 87. 6 

87. 8 

90. 7 

93. 3 

94. 6 

94. 8 

94. 9 

94. 5 

94. 8 

94. 5 

94. 7 

96. 6 

99. 8 

100. 0 

102. 5 

106. 5 

! 110. 4 

113. 9 

119. 1 

1 134. 7 

160. 1 

174. 9 

0 . 1 

-0. 5 

1 . 2 

! 0. 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

1 0. 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

1 . 2 

1 . 6 

0 . 4 

iii -4. 8 

15. 4 

0 . 6 

-2. 6 

0 . 2 

-0. 3 

1 !' 7 

4 . 0 

1 . 9 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

3 . 4 

1 . 6 

1 . 2 

3 . 0 

4 . 7 

2 . 7 

3 . 8 

7 . 1 

16. 5 

18. 7 

4 . 6 

1 Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

1977 11 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957. . 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 

331. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, CRUDE MATERIALS FOR FURTHER PROCESSING 

115*.9 

102.1 

94.6 

121.8 

114.5 

104.1 

102.5 

99.3 

94.1 

100.1 

100.3 

100.9 

97.1 

97.1 

97.9 

96.9 

95.1 

94.4 

105.5 

102.9 

100.2 

104.0 

112.2 

111.3 

120.6 

143.6 

201.7 

189.8 

109.9 

99.0 

97.4 

126.4 

113.3 

103.4 

102.3 

98.9 

95.5 

99.0 

101.9 

100.4 

97.2 

97.5 

97.7 

95.7 

94.0 

95.6 

107.6 

100.5 

100.5 

103.2 

112.3 

114.6 

121.8 

150.6 

206.2 

187.9 

107.1 

98.1 

96.8 

125.0 

111.7 

103.7 

102.6 

98.0 

95.1 

98.5 

103.3 

100.6 

98.1 

96.9 

97.4 

94.4 

94.4 

95.9 

107.0 

99.2 

101.0 

104.6 

113.6 

113.1 

121.7 

157.6 

199.9 

182.8 

331-C. CHANGE IN INDE 

2!} 

-3.2 

-0.2 

4.0 

-1.9 

-1.0 

1.3 

0.7 

-0.1 

-0.9 

-0.3 

-0.1 

0.1 

0.2 

0.1 

-1.1 

1.4 

-0.9 

0.9 

0.6 

-0.4 

0.5 

0.1 

0.9 

1.4 

2.6 

7.2 

-2.5 

-5.2 

-3.0 

3.0 

3.8 

-1.0 

-0.7 

-0.2 

-0.4 

1.5 

-1.1 

1.6 

-0.5 

0.1 

0.4 

-0.2 

-1.2 

-1.2 

1.3 

2.0 

-2.3 

0.3 

-0.8 

0.1 

3.0 

1.0 

4.9 

2.2 

-1.0 

98.2 

109.3 

96.5 

97.3 

124.8 

111.5 

101.0 

103.0 

98.8 

96.7 

98.3 

101.8 

101.3 

98.1 

96.5 

96.3 

95.0 

94.3 

97.0 

106.4 

98.1 

101.4 

105.8 

113.5 

115.1 

123.7 

160.5 

195.6 

192.6 

(1967=100) 

97!3 

112.9 

96.1 

100.9 

122.9 

111.3 

101.8 

102.6 

96.2 

98.0 

98.0 

103.6 

100.5 

98.3 

95.5 

96.1 

94.7 

94.0 

98.5 

105.6 

99.2 

100.7 

108.7 

111.7 

115.0 

125.4 

168.6 

187.8 

198.8 

97.7 

115.5 

95.0 

102.6 

121.7 

110.7 

100.3 

100.7 

98.1 

97.4 

100.5 

102.2 

100.0 

97.3 

94.0 

95.7 

95.5 

92.9 

100.9 

105.5 

100.2 

100.1 

110.1 

111.8 

115.5 

126.0 

176.3 

177.7 

196.5 

99.2 

115.1 

93.2 

106.4 

117.4 

110.6 

103.4 

100.2 

97.2 

97.3 

102.2 

102.6 

99.0 

97.2 

95.0 

96.6 

95.9 

93.4 

99.7 

106.7 

99.9 

101.1 

109.0 

112.1 

114.6 

127.9 

168.0 

191.5 

199.9 

100.9 

113.5 

93.4 

108.5 

115.6 

110.8 

101.4 

99.9 

96.1 

99.0 

102.4 

101.9 

98.2 

95.2 

97.3 

97.3 

95.5 

93.8 

100.6 

107.3 

100.0 

101.3 

110.0 

111.0 

114.4 

128.8 

204.1 

199.6 

200.2 

103.6 

111.3 

94.2 

110.3 

114.7 

108.2 

102.2 

99.0 

97.3 

99.1 

99.7 

101.2 

98.8 

95.7 

96.6 

99.7 

95.3 

96.1 

100.4 

106.8 

99.6 

102.0 

109.8 

113.4 

113.9 

129.3 

194.4 

193.1 

203.0 

107.4 

108.0 

94.4 

110.3 

117.4 

107.8 

100.3 

99.7 

97.0 

98.9 

99.1 

101.8 

98.0 

96.6 

96.9 

98.3 

95.7 

95.3 

101.3 

105.1 

100.1 

102.4 

111.1 

113.4 

116.3 

130.7 

186.6 

200.0 

205.3 

Nov. 

108.1 

107.0 

94.8 

113.1 

116.3 

107.6 

99.8 

100.3 

94.0 

99.3 

99.5 

102.7 

97.5 

96.5 

96.6 

98.9 

96.5 

95.5 

102.5 

103.2 

99.5 

104.8 

112.5 

112.0 

118.3 

134.2 

187.4 

202.1 

202.9 

X OF WHOLESALE PRICES, CRUDE MATERIALS FOR FURTHER PROCESSING, 

OVER 1-MONTH SPANS' (MONTHLY RATE 

-2^5 

-0.9 

-0.6 

-1.1 

-1.4 

0.3 

0.3 

-0.9 

-0.4 

-0.5 

1.4 

0.2 

0.9 

-0.6 

-0.3 

-1.4 

0.4 

0.3 

-0.6 

-1.3 

0.5 

1.4 

1.2 

-1.3 

-0.1 

4.6 

-3.1 

-2.7 

331-C. CHANGE IN INDE 

3.6 

-20.2 

6.2 

28.0 

-9.8 

-12.2 

5.5 

-1.8 

-0.6 

-1.2 

5.5 

-1.0 

0.2 

-0.2 

-1.2 

-6.6 

-2.9 

3.6 

10.3 

-12.9 

2.6 

6.8 

4.4 

3.0 

13.1 

50.8 

9.9 

-7.3 

... 

9^1 

-19.3 

13.3 

18.1 

-8.4 

-10.5 

5.7 

-8.0 

8.7 

-2.6 

8.4 

-4.2 

1.6 

-2.1 

-1.0 

-8.3 

-5.1 

6.4 

6.1 

-7.6 

2.4 

7.6 

-1.4 

5.4 

12.4 

57.8 

0.4 

-3.2 

OVER 

4.7 

-18.9 

17.1 

8.0 

-10.0 

-8.9 

-1.0 

-1.0 

6.9 

-1.0 

3.2 

-2.0 

0.6 

-5.9 

-4.2 

-5.0 

-1.9 

12.1 

1.7 

-4.1 

-1.0 

13.2 

-0.5 

9.7 

12.3 

58.6 

-10.8 

2.0 

2.1 

-1.6 

0.5 

-0.2 

-0.2 

-2.6 

0.4 

0.8 

1.7 

-0.2 

-1.5 

0.7 

0.0 

-0.4 

-1.1 

0.6 

-0.1 

1.1 

-0.6 

-1.1 

0.4 

1.1 

-0.1 

1.8 

1.6 

1.8 

-2.2 

5.4 

-0.9 

3.3 

-0.4 

3.7 

-1.5 

-0.2 

0.8 

-0.4 

-2.6 

1.3 

-0.3 

1.8 

-0.8 

0.2 

-1.0 

-0.2 

-0.3 

-0.3 

1.5 

-0.8 

1.1 

-0.7 

2.7 

-1.6 

-0.1 

1.4 

5.0 

-4.0 

3.2 

0.4 

2.3 

-1.1 

1.7 

-1.0 

-0.5 

-1.5 

-1.9 

2.0 

-0.6 

2.6 

-1.4 

-0.5 

-1.0 

-1.6 

-0.4 

0.8 

-1.2 

2.4 

-0.1 

1.0 

-0.6 

1.3 

0.1 

0.4 

0.5 

4.6 

-5.4 

-1.2 

1.5 

-0.3 

-1.9 

3.7 

-3.5 

-0.1 

3.1 

-0.5 

-0.9 

-0.1 

1.7 

0.4 

-1.0 

-0.1 

1.1 

0.9 

0.4 

0.5 

-1.2 

1.1 

-0.3 

1.0 

-1.0 

0.3 

-0.8 

1.5 

-4.7 

7.8 

1.7 

, PERCENT) 

i'.i -1.4 

0.2 

2.0 

-1.5 

0.2 

-1.9 

-0.3 

-1.1 

1.7 

0.2 

-0.7 

-0.8 

-2.1 

2.4 

0.7 

-0.4 

0.4 

0.9 

0.6 

0.1 

0.2 

0.9 

-1.0 

-0.2 

0.7 

21.5 

4.2 

0.2 

2.7 

-1.9 

0.9 

1.7 

-0.8 

-2.3 

0.8 

-0.9 

1.2 

0.1 

-2.6 

-0.7 

0.6 

0.5 

-0.7 

2.5 

-0.2 

2.5 

-0.2 

-0.5 

-0.4 

0.7 

-0.2 

2.2 

-0.4 

0.4 

-4.8 

-3.3 

1.4 

X OF WHOLESALE PRICES, CRUDE MATERIALS FOR FURTHEF 

6-MONTH SPANS' 

... 

-i'.k -16.7 

26.5 

-7.1 

-6.7 

-1.3 

-4.4 

-4.2 

6.9 

4.2 

4.6 

-3.7 

0.2 

-4.3 

-2.6 

-2.1 

-3.5 

11.5 

2.3 

-5.7 

1.8 

9.8 

-0.2 

6.0 

12.5 

36.9 

-9.9 

10.9 

6.7 

-11.0 

24.1 

-16.4 

-4.4 

-3.8 

-4.6 

-5.6 

7.5 

7.0 

0.0 

-4.3 

-4.1 

-0.4 

-0.8 

-0.4 

-0.4 

10.7 

-0.6 

-1.0 

1.6 

13.6 

-2.3 

-0.3 

11.8 

83.7 

-6.3 

13.5 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL 

8.0 

-7.8 

29.8 

-15.8 

-6.2 

-2.9 

-6.9 

-1.4 

8.6 

2.5 

-4.0 

-3.5 

-4.8 

-0.6 

4.8 

1.9 

3.6 

9.6 

-0.4 

0.8 

2.0 

10.2 

-0.4 

1.4 

12.9 

52.2 

-6.7 

23.3 

19.6 

-2.4 

-4.3 

28.5 

-11.5 

-6.5 

-1.4 

-6.3 

-3.6 

4.6 

1.6 

0.0 

-6.4 

-3.0 

0.8 

4.2 

1.5 

2.1 

9.1 

-2.4 

4.1 

2.0 

10.3 

-0.2 

2.1 

11.6 

35.2 

4.5 

13.6 

RATE, PERCENT) 

2SI4 

-10.2 

-2.7 

25.6 

-10.5 

-6.5 

-3.9 

-4.4 

-4.5 

2.7 

3.1 

-1.7 

-5.9 

-3.6 

2.3 

5.9 

3.8 

3.2 

8.3 

-4.5 

0.6 

8.3 

7.1 

0.5 

5.8 

14.5 

23.5 

15.8 

4.2 

33.5 

-16.6 

-0.4 

30.3 

-8.0 

-9.9 

1.8 

-4.1 

-7.8 

7.5 

0.2 

-2.3 

-5.9 

-0.8 

8.2 

4.9 

-3.5 

5.2 

7.5 

-6.0 

0.8 

6.9 

3.7 

-2.7 

6.0 

23.5 

13.8 

19.9 

5.3 

3.7 

-3.0 

0.2 

0.0 

2.4 

-0.4 

-1.9 

0.7 

-0.3 

-0.2 

-0.6 

0.6 

-0.8 

0.9 

0.3 

-1.4 

0.4 

-0.8 

0.9 

-1.6 

0.5 

0.4 

1.2 

0.0 

2.1 

1.1 

-4.0 

3.6 

1.1 

0.7 

-0.9 

0.4 

2.5 

-0.9 

-0.2 

-0.5 

0.6 

-3.1 

0.4 

0.4 

0.9 

-0.5 

-0.1 

-0.3 

0.6 

0.8 

0.2 

1.2 

-1.8 

-0.6 

2.3 

1.3 

-1.2 

1.7 

2.7 

0.4 

1.1 

-1.2 

I PROCESSING, 

36^5 

-21.3 

3.0 

31.0 

-4.9 

-11.4 

-1.7 

-1.8 

-6.3 

5.8 

-3.7 

-3.3 

-3.8 

-0.2 

6.2 

0.6 

-1.7 

2.2 

12.0 

-7.0 

0.6 

5.8 

6.0 

-1.4 

10.7 

26.1 

44.1 

-1.8 

2.0 

18.6 

-23.9 

8.7 

35.7 

-3.9 

-12.9 

1.8 

-2.0 

-1.2 

0.0 

-1.0 

-2.9 

-2.0 

4.9 

0.8 

-3.3 

-3.1 

3.9 

14.4 

-12.3 

1.0 

3.8 

4.2 

6.6 

13.4 

36.7 

2.1 

-11.4 

2.4 

Dec. , 

112.9 

105.5 

94.8 

117.11 

116.7 

105.1 

101.2 

98.6 

94.2 

101.0 

100.61 

101.0 

97.0 

96.9 

97.81 

98.0 

93.8 

95.3 

104.6 

102.3 

100.6 

103.5 

112.1 

110.3 

118.9 

140.0 

188.1 

194.6 

201.6 

\'.A 

-1.4 

O.Oi 

3.5 

0.3 

-2.3 

1.4 

-1.7 

0.2 

1.7 

1.1 

-1.7 

-0.5 

0.4 

1.2 

-0.9 

-2.8 

-0.2 

2.0 

-0.9 

1.1 

-1.2 

-0.4 

-1.5 

0.5 

4.3 

0.4 

-3.7 

-0.6 

6^9 

-22.3 

5.6 

28.4 

-5.2 

-8.1 

0.8 

-2.0 

-4.5 

-1.2 

7.4 

-1.2 

-1.4 

2.5 

1.7 

-10.3 

-1.9 

-0.4 

13.6 

-13.7 

2.8 

5.2 

7.0 

-0.5 

14.2 

48.6 

5.7 

-10.4 

-3.0 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

iii!o 

99.7 

96.3 

124.4 

113.2 

1U3.7 

102.5 

98.7 

94.9 

99.2 

101.8 

100.6 

97.5 

97.2 

97.7 

95.7 

94.5 

95.3 

10b.7 

100.9 

100.6 

103.9 

112.7 

113.0 

121.4 

15U.6 

202.6 

186.8 

-l'.l 

-2.4 

0.7 

2.2 

-1.4 

-0.5 

0.5 

-0.2 

0.3 

-0.8 

0.9 

-0.1 

0.4 

0.0 

-0.1 

-1.2 

0.2 

0.2 

0.8 

-1.0 

0.1 

0.4 

0.5 

0.9 

0.8 

4.0 

2.1 

-2.1 

5^8 

-19.5 

12.2 

18.0 

-9.4 

-10.5 

3.4 

-3.6 

5.0 

-1.6 

5.7 

-2.4 

0.8 

-2.7 

-2.1 

-6.6 

-3.3 

7.4 

6.0 

-8.2 

1.3 

9.2 

0.8 

6.0 

12.6 

55.7 

-0.2 

-2.8 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

97.7 

112.6 

95.9 

100.3 

123.1 

111.2 

101.0 

102.1 

97.7 

97.4 

98.9 

102.5 

100.6 

97.9 

95.3 

96.0 

95.1 

93.7 

98.8 

105.8 

99.2 

100.7 

108.2 

112.3 

115.2 

125.0 

168.5 

187.0 

196.0 

101.2 

113.3 

93.6 

108.4 

115.9 

109.9 

102.3 

99.7 

96.9 

98.5 

101.4 

101.9 

98.7 

96.0 

96.3 

97.9 

95.6 

94.4 

100.2 

106.9 

99.8 

101.5 

109.6 

112.2 

114.3 

128.7 

188.8 

194.7 

201.0 

AVERAGE FOR 

2.6 

-1.0 

2.0 

-0.9 

-0.3 

-1.1 

-0.6 

0.1 

0.8 

0.7 

-0.4 

-0.2 

-0.3 

-1.0 

-0.6 

0.4 

-0.5 

1.7 

-0.5 

0.3 

-0.3 

1.7 

-0.5 

0.7 

1.2 

3.8 

-3.9 

2.5 

2.0 

-1.2 

-0.3 

2.5 

-1.9 

-0.7 

0.7 

-0.6 

-0.3 

0.6 

-0.2 

-0.3 

-0.4 

-0.6 

0.9 

1.4 

-0.1 

1.1 

-0.2 

0.4 

-0.2 

0.6 

-0.1 

0.5 

-0.5 

0.9 

4.0 

2.9 

1.1 

AVERAGE FOR 

... 

A.l -11.8 

26.8 

-13.1 

-5.8 

-2.7 

-5.3 

-3.7 

7.7 

4.6 

0.2 

-3.8 

-2.9 

-1.8 

0.5 

-0.2 

-0.1 

10.6 

0.4 

-2.0 

1.8 

11.2 

-1.0 

2.4 

12.4 

57.6 

-7.6 

15.9 

25.5 

-9.7 

-2.5 

28.1 

-10.0 

-7.6 

-1.2 

-4.9 

-5.3 

4.9 

1.6 

-1.3 

-6.1 

-2.5 

3.8 

5.0 

0.6 

3.5 

8.3 

-4.3 

1.8 

5.7 

7.0 

-0.8 

4.6 

16.5 

24.2 

13.4 

7.7 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

109!5 

106.8 

94.7 

113.5 

116.8 

106.8 

100.4 

99.5 

95.1 

99.7 

99.7 

101.8 

97.5 

96.7 

97.1 

98.4 

95.3 

95.4 

102.8 

103.5 

100.1 

103.6 

111.9 

111.9 

117.8 

135.0 

187.4 

198.9 

203.3 

PERIOD 

2^9 

-1.8 

0.2 

2.0 

0.6 

-1.0 

-0.3 

-0.1 

-1.1 

0.6 

0.3 

-0.1 

-0.6 

0.4 

0.4 

-0.6 

-0.5 

-0.3 

1.4 

-1.4 

0.3 

0.5 

0.7 

-0.9 

1.4 

2.7 

-1.1 

0.3 

-0.2 

PERIOD 

26I7 

-22.5 

5.8 

31.7 

-4.7 

-10.8 

0.3 

-1.9 

-4.0 

1.5 

0.9 

-2.5 

-2.4 

2.4 

2.9 

-4.3 

-2.2 

1.9 

13.3 

-11.0 

1.5 

4.9 

5.7 

1.6 

12.8 

37.1 

17.3 

-7.9 

0.5 

Annual 

10l!2 

110.9 

96.0 

104.6 

120.1 

110.3 

101.9 

101.0 

97.1 

97.6 

99.8 

102.0 

99.4 

97.0 

96.5 

97.5 

95.4 

94.5 

99.3 

105.7 

100.0 

101.6 

108.4 

112.3 

115.0 

127.6 

173.9 

196.1 

196.9 

-6.5 

-0.9 

1.8 

0.0 

-0.9 

-0.3 

-0.2 

-0.4 

0.6 

0.0 

0.0 

-0.3 

0.0 

0.1 

0.0 

-0.4 

0.1 

0.8 

-0.2 

-0.1 

0.2 

0.7 

-0.1 

0.6 

1.4 

2.7 

0.4 

0.3 

' -5.* 5 

-7.0 

24.7 

-2.4 

-8.4 

-3.5 

-2.2 

-4.2 

4.8 

1.4 

0.5 

-3.7 

-0.5 

0.5 

-0.2 

-2.1 

0.5 

9.9 

-2.2 

-1.7 

3.4 

8.3 

0.2 

6.4 

19.7 

38.7 

-0.6 

5.3 

1 Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

averages of the centered changes. 

12 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948 . . . 

1949.. . 

195U.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965. . . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968. . . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

3 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949 . . . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954 . . . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959. . . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950. . . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

332 . 

77'. 5 

78. 0 

74. 0 

88. 5 

86. 2 

84. 9 

86. 5 

86. 5 

90. 2 

93. 8 

94. 3 

95. 0 

95. 8 

95. 2 

94. 8 

94. 7 

95. 7 

96. 0 

97. 7 

99. 9 

101. 1 

104. 2 

108. 6 

111. 8 

116. 3 

123. 4 

142. 3 

179. 6 

Feb. 

INDEX OF 

76. 8 

77. 2 

74. 4 

89. 2 

86. 0 

84. 9 

86. 4 

86. 9 

90. 4 

94. 1 

94. 0 

95. 2 

95. 8 

95. 3 

94. 8 

94. 7 

95. 6 

96. 0 

98. 1 

99. 7 

101. 6 

104. 6 

108. 5 

112. 0 

117. 0 

125. 4 

144. 9 

179. 4 

32-C . CHANGE IN 

2'.6 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

2 . 8 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

2 . 4 

0 . 4 

-0. 9 

-1. 0 

0 . 5 

0 . 8 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

1 .6 

1 . 8 

-0. 1 

32-C . CHANGE IN 

9*4 

-7. 7 

3 . 3 

16. 9 

-2. 5 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

1 . 9 

4 . 5 

1 . 7 

-0. 4 

2 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 4 

1 . 1 

-0. 8 

-0. 4 

1 1. 0 

2 . 9 

-0. 6 

3 . 0 

4 . 1 

3 . 8 

2 . 9 

3 . 9 

13. 9 

28. 7 

2 . 7 

7 . 9 

-8. 7 

6 . 9 

14. 1 

-3. 2 

1 . 9 

0 . 7 

1 . 6 

5 . 2 

1 . 3 

-0. 6 

2 . 8 

-0. 4 

-0. 6 

0 . 8 

0 . 8 

-0. 6 

1 . 5 

3 . 3 

-0. 8 

2 . 4 

4 . 1 

3 . 6 

3 . 4 

4 . 0 

17. 0 

34. 1 

-0. 7 

Mar. Apr. 

WHOLESALE PRICES 

77*. 6 

76. 7 

74. 7 

89. 3 

85. 5 

85. 3 

86. 4 

86. 8 

91. 1 

94. 0 

94. 0 

95. 3 

95. 9 

95. 4 

94. 9 

94. 6 

95. 4 

96. 1 

98. 3 

99. 6 

101. 7 

105. 1 

108. 4 

112. 6 

117. 2 

127. 5 

149. 4 

178. 6 

INDEX OF 

OV 

0*3 

-0. 6 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

-0. 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 8 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

1 . 7 

3 . 1 

-0. 4 

INDEX OF 

OVER 6 

7*5 

-8. 5 

8 . 3 

6 . 8 

-2. 1 

3 . 3 

0 . 0 

2 . 3 

5 . 0 

1 . 3 

-0. 6 

1 . 7 

0 . 2 

-0. 6 

0 . 2 

1 . 3 

-1. 3 

1 . 9 

3 . 7 

-0. 2 

2 . 2 

3 . 3 

3 . 6 

4 . 4 

3 . 3 

18. 4 

33. 3 

-1. 1 

71. 6 

77. 7 

75. 8 

75. 1 

89. 4 

85. 4 

85. 3 

86. 5 

87. 0 

91. 6 

93. 9 

94. 0 

95. 5 

95. 8 

95. 3 

95. 0 

94. 5 

95. 4 

96. 3 

98. 7 

99. 5 

101. 8 

105. 0 

108. 9 

112. 8 

117. 5 

128. 3 

152. 8 

179. 3 

May June July 

, INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS, 

(1967=100 ) 

71* 5 

78. 1 

75. 4 

76. 2 

89. 3 

85. 2 

85. 9 

86. 6 

87. 2 

92. 0 

93. 8 

94. 0 

95. 9 

95. 6 

95. 0 

95. 1 

95. 2 

95. 3 

96. 5 

99. 2 

99. 5 

101. 9 

105. 2 

109. 3 

113. 2 

117. 9 

131. 1 

157. 5 

178. 5 

WHOLESALE PRICES 

ER 1-MONTH SPANS 

6.9 

-1. 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

2 . 3 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 5 

-0. 5 

1 . 5 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

-0. 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 7 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

2 . 2 

3 . 1 

-0. 4 

WHOLESALE PRICES 

71. 8 

78. 8 

74. 9 

76. 7 

89. 0 

85. 5 

86. 2 

86. 4 

87. 4 

92. 1 

94. 0 

94. 1 

95. 8 

95. 8 

94. 8 

95. 0 

95. 4 

95. 1 

96. 9 

99. 3 

99. 8 

102. 2 

105. 4 

109. 7 

113. 8 

118. 1 

133. 6 

160. 5 

177. 9 

72. 1 

78. 9 

74. 7 

78. 3 

88. 1 

85. 3 

86. 8 

86. 6 

88. 1 

91. 3 

94. 2 

94. 2 

95. 8 

95. 7 

94. 7 

95. 1 

95. 3 

95. 2 

96. 9 

99. 8 

99. 9 

102. 3 

105. 5 

110. 1 

114. 6 

118. 4 

131. 3 

165. 8 

178. 8 

Aug. Sept. Oct. 

SUPPLIES AND COMPONENTS 

72* 3 

79. 2 

74. 3 

79. 5 

86. 9 

85. 5 

86. 5 

86. 4 

88. 4 

92. 3 

94. 5 

94. 3 

95. 7 

95. 6 

94. 7 

95. 0 

95. 3 

95. 2 

97. 1 

100. 3 

100. 0 

102. 4 

106. 0 

110. 3 

115. 4 

118. 6 

135. 0 

172. 8 

179. 6 

, INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS, 

' (MONTHLY RATE, 

0*4 

0 . 9 

-0. 7 

0 . 7 

-0. 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

1 .9 

1 . 9 

-0. 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

-0. 3 

2 . 1 

-1. 0 

-0. 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

0 . 8 

-0. 9 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

0 . 3 

-1. 7 

3 . 3 

0 . 5 

73. 5 

79. 3 

74. 0 

81. 2 

86. 7 

85. 6 

86. 4 

86. 3 

89. 2 

92. 6 

94. 4 

94. 4 

95. 6 

95. 6 

94. 7 

95. 0 

95. 3 

95. 4 

97. 2 

100. 1 

100. 2 

102. 7 

106. 3 

110. 6 

115. 4 

119. 4 

133. 3 

173. 1 

180. 2 

74. 3 

78. 9 

73. 9 

82. 7 

86. 5 

85. 4 

86. 4 

86. 2 

89. 6 

93. 1 

94. 2 

94. 5 

95. 7 

95. 5 

94. 5 

94. 9 

95. 6 

95. 8 

97. 3 

99. 8 

100. 3 

102. 9 

106. 9 

111. 2 

115. 3 

120. 2 

134. 7 

176. 9 

182. 2 

Nov. 

75* 2 

78. 9 

73. 7 

83. 6 

86. 6 

85. 1 

86. 3 

86. 5 

89. 7 

93. 2 

94. 3 

94. 6 

95. 8 

95. 3 

94. 7 

94. 8 

95. 6 

95. 8 

97. 6 

99. 9 

100. 7 

103. 1 

107. 4 

111. 3 

115. 6 

121. 2 

136. 0 

179. 1 

182. 7 

SUPPLIES AND COMPONENTS, 

PERCENT) 

0*3* 

0 . 4 

-0. 5 

1 . 5 

-1. 4 

0 . 2 

-0. 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 3 

1 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

2 . 8 

4 . 2 

0 . 4 

, INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS, 

1 . 7 

0 . 1 

-0. 4 

2 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 9 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 7 

-1. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

SUPPLIES 

-MONTH SPANS' (COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

3*6 

-8. 3 

12. 0 

-0. 9 

-2. 1 

4 . 5 

0 . 2 

3 . 7 

2 . 5 

0 . 9 

-0. 2 

1 . 7 

-0. 2 

-1. 0 

0 . 6 

1 . 3 

-1. 0 

1 . 9 

4 . 3 

0 . 0 

2 . 4 

2 . 5 

2 . 8 

5 . 1 

1 3. 6 

13. 2 

35. 8 

-0. 9 

6 . 3 

-7. 4 

14. 2 

-5. 1 

-1. 2 

3 . 8 

0 . 0 

3 . 5 

4 . 2 

0 . 9 

0 . 6 

1 . 1 

-0. 4 

-1. 3 

0 . 4 

1 . 3 

-0. 8 

2 . 3 

4 . 5 

0 . 6 

1 . 6 

2 . 7 

3 . 3 

6 . 2 

2 . 8 

15. 9 

42. 2 

0 . 2 

6 . 1 

-6. 9 

18. 2 

-5. 7 

0 . 2 

2 . 6 

-0. 2 

5 . 6 

3 . 3 

0 . 9 

0 . 9 

0 . 6 

-0. 6 

-1. 5 

0 . 2 

1 . 5 

0 . 0 

2 . 3 

3 . 7 

1 . 2 

2 . 0 

2 . 3 

4 . 1 

5 . 0 

3 . 8 

9 . 3 

34. 2 

1 . 8 

7 . 7 

3 . 1 

-5. 0 

21. 3 

-6. 4 

0 . 0 

2 . 6 

-0. 7 

6 . 1 

3 . 3 

0 . 6 

1 . 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 6 

-1. 7 

-0. 2 

2 . 3 

0 . 8 

2 . 1 

2 . 2 

1 . 6 

2 . 2 

3 . 7 

4 . 3 

4 . 5 

4 . 6 

10. 2 

34. 0 

3 . 3 

10. 6 

2 . 1 

-4. 5 

20. 4 

-6. 0 

-0. 2 

0 . 9 

-0. 2 

5 . 8 

2 . 6 

1 . 1 

1 . 3 

-0. 2 

-0. 6 

-0. 6 

-0. 6 

0 . 8 

1 . 1 

2 . 3 

1 . 4 

2 . 4 

2 . 4 

4 . 2 

3 . 7 

4 . 3 

5 . 7 

7 . 6 

29. 3 

4 . 8 

12. 0 

-1. 3 

-3. 2 

26. 0 

-5. 8 

-1. 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

5 . 8 

2 . 8 

0 . 9 

1 . 9 

-0. 2 

-1. 5 

0 . 2 

-0. 4 

0 . 6 

1 . 9 

1 . 2 

1 .2 

2 . 6 

3 . 0 

4 . 6 

3 . 1 

4 . 3 

8 . 1 

8 . 2 

24. 2 

6 . 0 

1 . 1 

-0. 5 

-0. 1 

1 . 8 

-0. 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 7 

1 . 1 

2 . 2 

1 . 1 

1 .2 

0 . 0 

-0. 3 

1 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 8 

1 . 0 

1 . 2 

0 . 3 

5 AND COMPONENTS, 

15* 5 

-2. 3 

-1. 9 

27. 8 

-4. 3 

-0. 9 

-0. 7 

-0. 2 

4 . 8 

5 . 6 

0 . 2 

1 . 7 

0 . 0 

-1. 0 

0 . 2 

-0. 8 

0 . 8 

1 . 7 

1 . 7 

0 . 2 

2 . 4 

3 . 7 

6 . 0 

3 . 1 

3 . 0 

8 . 6 

17. 5 

17. 3 

6 . 4 

12. 8 

-5. 0 

0 . 3 

25. 9 

-2. 1 

-1. 4 

-0. 2 

1 .2 

4 . 6 

3 . 9 

-1. 1 

1 . 9 

0 . 2 

-0. 6 

0 . 2 

-0. 6 

0 . 6 

1 . 7 

2 . 1 

-1. 2 

3 . 2 

4 . 3 

4 . 8 

3 . 1 

2 . 8 

11. 8 

15. 2 

7 . 8 

6 . 4 

Dec. 

76*. 6 

78. 3 

73. 7 

86. 1 

86. 4 

84. 8 

86. 4 

86. 4 

89. 9 

93. 4 

94. 4 

95. 0 

95. 7 

95. 1 

94. 9 

94. 8 

95. 7 

96. 0 

97. 5 

99. 9 

101. 1 

103. 7 

107. 8 

111. 4 

116. 2 

122. 8 

139. 0 

178. 9 

183. 2 

i'.i -0. 8 

0 . 0 

3 . 0 

-0. 2 

-0. 4 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 6 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

1 . 3 

2 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

9*8 

-6. 4 

1 . 9 

20. 9 

-2. 7 

-0. 7 

0 . 0 

1 . 2 

4 . 3 

3 . 0 

-0. 8 

1 . 9 

0 . 6 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

-0. 8 

0 . 2 

1 . 5 

2 . 3 

-1. 0 

3 . 0 

4 . 7 

4 . 0 

3 . 6 

3 . 1 

14. 0 

25. 6 

6 . 5 

6 . 8 

Quarterly 

IQ 

77* 1 

77. 3 

74. 4 

89. 0 

85. 9 

85. 0 

86. 4 

86. 7 

90. 6 

94. 0 

94. 1 

95. 2 

95. 8 

95. 3 

94. 8 

94. 7 

95. 6 

96. 0 

98. 0 

99. 7 

101. 5 

104. 6 

108. 5 

112. 1 

116. 8 

125. 4 

145. 5 

179. 2 

0*.5 

-0. 7 

0 . 4 

1 . 2 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

1 . 3 

2 . 4 

0 . 0 

8 . 3 

-8. 3 

6 . 2 

12. 6 

-2. 6 

1 . 7 

0 . 3 

1 . 9 

4 . 9 

1 . 4 

-0. 5 

2 . 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 4 

-0. 8 

1 . 5 

3 . 3 

-0. 5 

2 . 5 

3 . 8 

3 . 7 

3 . 6 

3 . 7 

16. 4 

32. 0 

0 . 3 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

71* 6 72* 6 

78. 2 79. 1 

75. 4 74. 3 

76. 0 79. 7 

89. 2 87. 2 

85. 4 85. 5 

85. 8 86. 6 

86. 5 86. 4 

87. 2 88. 6 

91. 9 92. 1 

93. 9 94. 4 

94. 0 94. 3 

95. 7 95. 7 

95. 7 95. 6 

95. 0 94. 7 

95. 0 95. 0 

95. 0 95. 3 

95. 3 95. 3 

96. 6 97. 1 

99. 1 100. 1 

99. 6 100. 0 

102. 0 102. 5 

105. 2 105. 9 

109. 3 110. 3 

113. 3 115. 1 

117. 8 118. 8 

131. 0 133. 2 

156. 9 170. 6 

178. 6 179. 5 

AVERAGE FOR 

0 . 8 

0 . 8 0. 2 

-0. 8 -0. 4 

0 . 9 1.9 

-0. 1 -0. 9 

0 . 0 0. 0 

0 . 3 0. 1 

0 . 0 0. 0 

0 . 2 0. 7 

0 . 3 0. 2 

0 . 0 0. 1 

0 . 0 0. 1 

0 . 2 -0. 1 

0 . 0 -0. 1 

-0. 2 0. 0 

0 . 0 0. 0 

0 . 3 0. 0 

-0. 1 0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 3 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 2 0. 2 

0 . 1 0. 3 

0 . 4 0. 3 

0 . 4 0. 5 

0 . 3 0. 4 

1 . 6 -0. 1 

2 . 4 2. 6 

-0. 1 0. 4 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

75* 2 

78. 7 

73. 8 

84. 1 

86. 5 

85. 1 

86. 4 

86. 4 

89. 7 

93. 2 

94. 3 

94. 7 

95. 7 

95. 3 

94. 7 

94. 8 

95. 6 

95. 9 

97. 5 

99. 9 

100. 7 

103. 2 

107. 4 

111. 3 

115. 7 

121. 4 

136. 6 

178. 3 

182. 7 

PERIOD 

1 . 1 

-0. 4 

-0. 1 

2 . 0 

-0. 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 9 

1.4 

1 . 1 

0 . 6 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

. . . lo'.i 

5 . 3 1. 3 

-7. 5 -4. 2 

14. 8 22. 6 

-3. 9 -6. 1 

-1. 0 -0. 6 

3 . 6 1.3 

0 . 0 -0. 3 

4 . 3 5. 9 

3 . 3 2. 9 

0 . 9 0. 9 

0 . 4 1.4 

1 . 1 0. 0 

-0. 4 -0. 9 

-1. 3 -0. 7 

0 . 4 -0. 4 

1 . 4 1. 2 

-0. 6 1. 3 

2 . 2 1. 9 

4 . 2 1.6 

0 . 6 2. 2 

2 . 0 2. 5 

2 . 5 4. 2 

3 . 4 3. 7 

5 . 4 4. 4 

3 . 4 6. 1 

12. 8 8. 7 

37. 4 29. 2 

0 . 4 4. 7 

12. 7 

-4. 6 

0 . 1 

24. 9 

-3. 0 

-1. 0 

-0. 3 

0 . 7 

4 . 6 

4 . 2 

-0. 6 

1 . 8 

0 . 3 

-0. 7 

0 . 3 

-0. 7 

0 . 5 

1 . 6 

2 . 0 

-0. 7 

2 . 9 

4 . 2 

4 . 9 

3 . 3 

3 . 0 

11. 5 

19. 4 

10. 5 

6 . 5 

Annual 

72. 4 

78. 3 

75. 2 

78. 6 

88. 1 

85. 5 

86. 0 

86. 5 

88. 1 

92. 0 

94. 1 

94. 3 

95. 6 

95. 6 

95. 0 

94. 9 

95. 2 

95. 5 

96. 8 

99. 2 

100. 0 

102. 3 

105. 8 

109. 9 

114. 0 

| 118. 7 

131. 6 

162. 9 

180. 0 

0 . 2 

-0. 5 

1 . 3 

! o.o 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

! o. i 

1 0. 0 

i 0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

1 .0 

2 . 1 

0 . 2 

2*6 

-5. 0 

17. 1 

-0. 1 

1 ~

1

'

3 

1 . 6 

0 . 2 

4 . 2 

3 . 8 

0 . 7 

0 . 8 

0 . 9 

-0. 5 

-0. 6 

0 . 0 

0 . 9 

0 . 4 

1 . 9 

2 . 1 

1 . 3 

2 . 8 

3 . 9 

3 . 5 

4 . 1 

6 . 2 

| 14.3 

27.3 

3 . 0 

'Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

BCD 1977 113 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949. . . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

5l'.'b 

63. 2 

62. 8 

70. 1 

71. 8 

72. 4 

74. 2 

75. 0 

79. 4 

85. 9 

89. 4 

90. 7 

91. 6 

91. 8 

92. 0 

92. 2 

92. 6 

93. 9 

95. 0 

98. 8 

101. 9 

105. 1 

109. 8 

115. 3 

118. 1 

120. 2 

127. 9 

157. 0 

Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 

333 . INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES , PRODUCER FINISHED GOODS 

57. 9 

63. 6 

62. 8 

70. 4 

72. 4 

72. 4 

74. 3 

75. 1 

79. 9 

86. 3 

89. 5 

90. 8 

91. 7 

91. 7 

92. 0 

92. 2 

92. 7 

94. 0 

95. 4 

99. 1 

102. 2 

105. 4 

110. 2 

115. 7 

118. 7 

121. 1 

129. 2 

158. 3 

333-C . CHANGE IN 

0*.7 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

1 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

1 . 0 

1 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 8 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 7 

1 .0 

0 . 8 

333-C . CHANGE IN 

6 . 1 

3 . 5 

1 . 0 

13. 6 

2 . 2 

1 . 9 

0 . 8 

2 . 7 

6 . 5 

4 . 8 

2 . 0 

3 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

1 . 1 

1 . 7 

2 . 8 

3 . 3 

4 . 0 

2 . 5 

5 . 1 

3 . 9 

4 . 1 

4 . 7 

12. 7 

12. 8 

6 . 4 

2 . 6 

2 . 2 

12. 2 

2 . 5 

2 . 8 

1 . 9 

3 . 5 

8 . 0 

3 . 5 

1 . 6 

3 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

0 . 0 

1 . 7 

1 . 5 

3 . 2 

2 . 9 

4 . 2 

2 . 9 

4 . 3 

3 . 3 

4 . 5 

5 . 8 

17. 4 

10. 3 

58. 1 

63. 8 

63. 0 

71. 0 

72. 5 

72. 7 

74. 3 

75. 3 

80. 4 

86. 6 

89. 5 

91. 2 

91. 8 

91. 8 

92. 1 

92. 2 

93. 0 

94. 2 

95. 6 

99. 1 

102. 4 

105. 6 

110. 6 

115. 9 

118. 9 

121. 7 

130. 9 

159. 8 

INDEX OF 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 9 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

1 . 3 

0 . 9 

INDEX OF 

8'.6 

1 . 6 

3 . 2 

6 . 4 

2 . 8 

4 . 5 

1 . 6 

3 . 2 

7 . 7 

3 . 5 

0 . 9 

3 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

1 . 1 

1 . 9 

3 . 8 

2 . 4 

3 . 6 

3 . 5 

3 . 7 

3 . 0 

3 . 4 

5 . 6 

20. 4 

9 . 1 

54. 5 

58. 4 

63. 9 

63. 3 

71. 2 

72. 5 

73. 0 

74. 5 

75. 5 

81. 2 

86. 8 

89. 6 

91. 3 

91. 7 

91. 8 

92. 2 

92. 2 

93. 1 

94. 4 

95. 9 

99. 4 

102. 9 

105. 8 

110. 8 

116. 2 

119. 3 

122. 4 

132. 5 

160. 8 

(1967=100 ) 

55'.2 

58. 8 

63. 8 

63. 6 

71. 4 

72. 6 

73. 3 

74. 6 

75. 8 

81. 7 

87. 0 

89. 7 

91. 6 

91. 6 

91. 8 

92. 2 

92. 2 

93. 4 

94. 3 

96. 3 

99. 7 

103. 3 

106. 2 

111. 2 

116. 5 

119. 5 

123. 2 

136. 1 

161. 4 

WHOLESALE PRICES 

55. 5 

59. 6 

63. 7 

63. 8 

71. 5 

72. 7 

73. 9 

74. 6 

76. 1 

82. 0 

87. 1 

89. 7 

91. 9 

91. 7 

91. 9 

92. 1 

92. 3 

93. 3 

94. 4 

96. 7 

99. 8 

103. 4 

106. 5 

111. 4 

116. 6 

119. 7 

123. 5 

138. 9 

161. 9 

55. 6 

60. 7 

63. 7 

64. 4 

71. 5 

72. 8 

74. 2 

74. 7 

76. 4 

82. 1 

87. 7 

89. 7 

91. 8 

91. 8 

91. 8 

92. 3 

92. 3 

93. 5 

94. 5 

97. 0 

99. 9 

103. 7 

107. 0 

111. 9 

117. 1 

119. 9 

123. 7 

141. 8 

162. 9 

55. 9 

61. 8 

63. 3 

65. 4 

71. 3 

72. 5 

74. 1 

74. 5 

77. 1 

82. 8 

88. 0 

89. 6 

91. 8 

91. 9 

91. 8 

92. 3 

92. 3 

93. 6 

94. 6 

97. 2 

100. 2 

104. 0 

107. 2 

112. 2 

117. 4 

119. 9 

124. 1 

145. 4 

163. 2 

, PRODUCER FINISHED GOODS 

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT) 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

1 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

1 . 2 

0 . 6 

1 . 3 

0 . 7 

-0. 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

2 . 7 

0 . 4 

WHOLESALE PRICES 

0 . 5 

1.4 

-0. 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 8 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

2 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

1 . 8 

0 . 0 

0 . 9 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 7 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

2 . 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

1 . 8 

-0. 6 

1 . 6 

-0. 3 

-0. 4 

-0. 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 9 

0 . 9 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

2 . 5 

0 . 2 

56. 3 

62. 4 

63. 0 

66. 1 

71. 4 

72. 5 

74. 2 

74. 5 

77. 9 

84. 0 

88. 4 

89. 6 

91. 9 

91. 1 

91. 9 

92. 3 

92. 5 

93. 6 

94. 8 

97. 4 

100. 4 

104. 2 

107. 7 

112. 7 

117. 2 

120. 2 

124. 5 

148. 3 

164. 4 

, OVER 1 

6*. 7 

1 . 0 

-0. 5 

1 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

1 . 0 

1.4 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

-0. 9 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

2 . 0 

0 . 7 

, PRODUCER FINISHED GOODS, OVER 6 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

li'.i 1 . 6 

5 . 2 

4 . 0 

2 . 8 

5 . 0 

1 . 4 

3 . 8 

6 . 9 

4 . 2 

0 . 7 

2 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

2 . 0 

1 . 3 

4 . 3 

2 . 2 

3 . 6 

3 . 6 

3 . 9 

3 . 1 

3 . 1 

5 . 9 

22. 9 

7 . 7 

13. 9 

-0. 9 

8 . 5 

2 . 6 

0 . 3 

4 . 8 

0 . 5 

5 . 4 

7 . 4 

4 . 0 

0 . 2 

2 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

2 . 0 

1 . 3 

3 . 8 

2 . 2 

3 . 6 

3 . 4 

3 . 7 

3 . 0 

2 . 0 

5 . 0 

26. 6 

6 . 3 

15. 3 

-2. 5 

10. 1 

1 . 1 

0 . 0 

4 . 2 

0 . 5 

7 . 0 

9 . 2 

4 . 2 

0 . 2 

1 . 5 

-1. 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

1 . 3 

1 . 3 

3 . 8 

2 . 6 

3 . 5 

4 . 0 

3 . 8 

2 . 3 

2 . 2 

4 . 7 

28. 4 

5 . 8 

8 . 2 

15. 6 

-2. 8 

11. 4 

1 . 4 

-0. 6 

3 . 3 

0 . 0 

8 . 7 

9 . 1 

4 . 4 

0 . 4 

1 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 9 

1 . 1 

0 . 4 

4 . 0 

3 . 0 

3 . 1 

4 . 4 

5 . 9 

1 . 2 

0 . 5 

4 . 0 

30. 6 

6 . 4 

6 . 6 

14. 8 

-2. 8 

12. 3 

0 . 8 

-0. 8 

1 . 6 

-0. 3 

7 . 5 

9 . 5 

4 . 7 

1 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 9 

0 . 4 

1 . 1 

4 . 2 

3 . 0 

2 . 7 

5 . 1 

6 . 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 5 

3 . 9 

27. 5 

6 . 9 

6 . 2 

12. 4 

-2. 8 

18. 0 

0 . 6 

-1. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 8 

7 . 8 

9 . 0 

5 . 1 

1 . 8 

-0. 9 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

1 . 1 

0 . 4 

1 . 1 

4 . 0 

3 . 6 

2 . 5 

5 . 5 

6 . 4 

1 . 9 

0 . 8 

5 . 1 

24. 5 

7 . 3 

Oct. 

56! 7 

62. 8 

63. 0 

66. 8 

71. 7 

72. 3 

74. 2 

74. 5 

78. 7 

84. 8 

88. 7 

89. 8 

91. 8 

91. 7 

92. 0 

92. 2 

92. 6 

93. 6 

94. 6 

97. 8 

100. 9 

104. 5 

108. 1 

114. 0 

116. 9 

119. 6 

124. 8 

151. 4 

165. 9 

Nov. 

57. 0 

63. 0 

62. 9 

67. 4 

71. 7 

72. 3 

73. 9 

74. 5 

78. 6 

85. 5 

89. 0 

90. 2 

91. 5 

91. 6 

91. 9 

92. 2 

92. 6 

93. 6 

94. 8 

98. 3 

101. 2 

104. 7 

108. 9 

114. 6 

116. 9 

119. 8 

125. 6 

153. 7 

166. 9 

-MONTH SPANS ' 

o'.l 

0 . 6 

0 . 0 

1 . 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

1 . 0 

1 .0 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 7 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

1 . 2 

-0. 3 

-0. 5 

0 . 2 

2 . 1 

0 . 9 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 9 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

-0. 4 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 8 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

-0. 3 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

1 . 5 

0 . 6 

-MONTH SPANS ' 

7 . 3 

8 . 4 

-2. 8 

18. 5 

0 . 8 

-1. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 8 

8 . 0 

9 . 5 

3 . 9 

2 . 2 

-0. 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 9 

1 . 1 

3 . 7 

4 . 0 

2 . 7 

5 . 3 

6 . 2 

1 . 7 

0 . 5 

6 . 9 

22. 6 

7 . 5 

7 . 3 

5 . 9 

-1. 6 

15. 9 

3 . 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 5 

1 . 6 

7 . 4 

8 . 6 

3 . 4 

2 . 7 

-0. 2 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 9 

0 . 9 

1 . 7 

3 . 9 

4 . 0 

2 . 7 

5 . 7 

6 . 3 

2 . 2 

2 . 0 

8 . 4 

18. 5 

8 . 3 

Dec. 

57. 2 

63. 2 

62. 8 

69. 3 

71. 7 

72. 3 

74. 0 

74. 9 

79. 0 

85. 6 

89. 3 

90. 5 

91. 5 

91. 6 

91. 9 

92. 3 

92. 8 

93. 5 

94. 9 

98. 6 

101. 6 

104. 7 

109. 4 

114. 9 

117. 7 

120. 2 

126. 6 

155. 0 

167. 7 

o!4 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

2 . 8 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0.1 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

0.5 | 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

0 . 3 

0.8 j 

0 . 8 

0 . 5 

6 ! 5 

4 . 5 

0 . 0 

15. 4 

3 . 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 3 

2 . 2 

6 . 5 

6 . 3 

2 . 5 

3 . 6 

-0. 2 

1 . 5 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

1 . 1 

1 . 3 

1 . 7 

3 . 5 

4 . 0 

2 . 7 

5 . 5 

5 . 8 

2 . 9 

2 . 5 

10. 5 

16. 1 

7 . 7 

Quarterly 

IQ 

57! 9 

63. 5 

62. 9 

70. 5 

72. 2 

72. 5 

74. 3 

75. 1 

79. 9 

86. 3 

89. 5 

90. 9 

91. 7 

91. 8 

92. 0 

92. 2 

92. 8 

94. 0 

95. 3 

99. 0 

102. 2 

105. 4 

110. 2 

115. 6 

118. 6 

121. 0 

129. 3 

158. 4 

o!5 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 8 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 , 6 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

1 . 1 

1 . 0 

7 . 0 

2 . 6 

2 . 1 

10. 7 

2 . 5 

3 . 1 

1 . 4 

3 . 1 

7 . 4 

3 . 9 

1 . 5 

3 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

1 . 3 

1 . 7 

3 . 3 

2 . 9 

3 . 9 

3 . 0 

4 . 4 

3 . 4 

4 . 0 

5 . 4 

16. 8 

10. 7 

II Q IIIQ 

AVERAGE FOR 

55. i 55 ^ 

58. 9 61. 6 

63. 8 63. 3 

63. 6 65. 3 

71. 4 71. 4 

72. 6 72. 6 

73. 4 74. 2 

74. 6 74. 6 

75. 8 77. 1 

81. 6 83. 0 

87. 0 88. 0 

89. 7 89. 6 

91. 6 91. 8 

91. 7 91. 6 

91. 8 91. 8 

92. 2 92. 3 

92. 2 92. 4 

93. 3 93. 6 

94. 4 94. 6 

96. 3 97. 2 

99. 6 100. 2 

103. 2 104. 0 

106. 2 107. 3 

111. 1 112. 3 

116. 4 117. 2 

119. 5 120. 0 

123. 0 124. 1 

135. 8 145. 2 

161. 4 163. 5 

AVERAGE FOR 

6.5 

0 . 9 1. 5 

-0. 1 -0. 4 

0 . 4 1. 2 

0 . 2 -0. 1 

0 . 1 -0. 1 

0 . 5 0. 1 

0 . 1 -0. 1 

0 . 4 0. 8 

0 . 7 0. 8 

0 . 2 0. 5 

0 . 1 0. 0 

0 . 2 0. 0 

0 . 0 -0. 2 

0 . 0 0. 0 

0 . 0 0. 1 

0 . 0 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 4 0. 2 

0 . 2 0. 2 

0 . 3 0. 3 

0 . 3 0. 4 

0 . 3 0. 4 

0 . 2 0. 2 

0 . 2 0. 2 

0 . 5 0. 3 

2 . 0 2. 2 

0 . 4 0. 5 

AVERAGE FOR 

7!6 

13. 4 14. 3 

-0. 6 -2. 8 

7 . 9 13. 9 

2 . 6 0. 9 

1 . 0 -0. 8 

4 . 7 1. 7 

0 . 8 0. 2 

5 . 4 8. 0 

7 . 8 9. 2 

4 . 1 4. 7 

0 . 4 1. 1 

2 . 0 0. 0 

-0. 2 -0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 2 

0 . 6 0. 1 

0 . 4 1. 0 

1 . 8 0. 6 

1 . 3 0. 9 

4 . 0 4. 1 

2 . 3 3. 2 

3 . 6 2. 8 

3 . 7 5. 0 

3 . 8 6. 2 

2 . 8 1. 3 

2 . 4 0. 6 

5 . 2 4. 3 

26. 0 27. 5 

6 . 6 6. 9 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

57. 0 

63. 0 

62. 9 

67. 8 

71. 7 

72. 3 

74. 0 

74. 6 

78. 8 

85. 3 

89. 0 

90. 2 

91. 6 

91. 6 

91. 9 

92. 2 

92. 7 

93. 6 

94. 8 

98. 2 

101. 2 

104. 6 

108. 8 

114. 5 

117. 2 

119. 9 

125. 7 

153. 4 

166. 8 

PERIOD 

O.'s 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

1 . 6 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0.3 j 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0.2 | 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0.4 ! 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 5 

1 . 5 

0 . 7 

PERIOD 

7 . 0 

6 . 3 

-1. 5 

16. 6 

2 . 3 

-0. 3 

0 . 3 

1 . 5 

7 . 3 

8 . 1 

3 . 3 

2 . 8 

-0. 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 9 

1 . 0 

1 . 5 

3 . 7 

4 . 0 

2 . 7 

5 . 5 

6 . 1 

2 . 3 

1 . 7 

8 . 6 

19. 1 

7 . 8 

Annual 

55! 4 

60. 4 

63. 4 

64. 9 

i 71. 2 

! 72. 4 

| 73. 5 

74. 5 

76. 7 

82. 4 

87. 6 

89. 7 

91. 5 

91. 6 

91. 8 

92. 2 

92. 4 

93. 3 

94. 4 

96. 8 

100. 0 

103. 5 

106. 8 

112. 0 

116. 6 

119. 5 

123. 5 

141. 0 

162. 5 

0.8 

-0. 1 

0 . 8 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

1 . 7 

0 . 6 

10. 2 

1 -0. 6 

10. 1 

4 . 1 

0 . 6 

2 . 4 

1 . 0 

6 . 0 

8 . 1 

4 . 0 

1 . 4 

1 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

1 . 2 

1 . 3 

3 . 8 

3 . 1 

3 . 2 

4 . 3 

5 . 1 

2 . 4 

2 . 2 

5 . 9 

22. 4 

8 . 0 

'Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

averages of the centered changes. 

114 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

BI'.'A 

84. 9 

80. 8 

90. 8 

91. 2 

89. 3 

89. 5 

88. a 

88. 4 

91. 3 

94. 1 

93. 9 

93. 3 

95. 0 

94. 8 

94. 4 

94. 7 

94. 5 

98. 2 

99. 5 

100. 9 

104. 4 

109. 6 

111. 1 

114. 4 

120. 8 

139. 3 

159. 3 

Feb. Mar. Apr. May June ' July Aug. Sept. 

334 . INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, CONSUMER FINISHED GOODS 

85. 6 

83. 9 

81. 1 

92. 3 

91. 2 

89. 1 

89. 0 

89. 0 

88. 6 

91. 7 

94. 1 

93. 8 

93. 3 

95. 4 

94. 9 

94. 2 

94. 0 

94. 5 

99. 0 

99. 3 

101. 5 

104. 3 

109. 4 

111. 6 

114. 9 

122. 2 

142. 3 

158. 7 

34-C . CHANGE IN 

2.2 

-0. 7 

0 . 0 

1 . 8 

-0. 7 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

-0. 3 

1 . 0 

2 . 7 

0 . 4 

-0. 9 

-1. 2 

0 . 4 

1 . 7 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

-0. 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

-0. 7 

0 . 0 

0 . 8 

-0. 2 

0 . 6 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

1 . 2 

2 . 2 

-0. 4 

34-C . CHANGE IN 

l6l2 

-7. 9 

-0. 7 

13. 8 

-1. 3 

-3. 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

1 . 8 

2 . 7 

3 . 5 

-0. 4 

2 . 4 

-1. 9 

0 . 9 

-2. 1 

-0. 2 

2 . 3 

5 . 2 

-2. 0 

3 . 2 

2 . 7 

2 . 8 

3 . 5 

2 . 3 

15. 9 

18. 1 

5 . 7 

8 . 9 

-7. 3 

1 . 0 

12. 0 

-2. 0 

-2. 4 

1 . 6 

-0. 9 

3 . 2 

2 . 0 

3 . 2 

-0. 6 

3 . 0 

-3. 3 

0 . 6 

-1. 3 

-0. 6 

3 . 2 

3 . 5 

-1. 2 

3 . 0 

4 . 3 

0 . 6 

3 . 5 

2 . 8 

15. 8 

19. 0 

3 . 8 

85. 6 

83. 7 

81. 1 

92. 1 

91. 3 

89. 0 

89. 0 

88. 6 

89. 1 

91. 6 

95. 2 

93. 6 

94. 2 

94. 9 

94. 6 

93. 6 

94. 1 

94. 9 

99. 3 

99. 0 

101. 8 

104. 8 

109. 5 

111. 8 

114. 8 

125. 3 

143. 4 

158. 3 

INDEX OF 

6!6 -0. 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 4 

0 . 6 

-0. 1 

1 . 2 

-0. 2 

1 . 0 

-0. 5 

-0. 3 

-0. 6 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

2 . 5 

0 . 8 

-0. 3 

INDEX OF 

6.*2 

-6. 2 

3 . 2 

7 . 1 

-2. 6 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

3 . 9 

2 . 4 

1 . 9 

-0. 6 

2 . 6 

-2. 9 

-0. 8 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

4 . 3 

0 . 8 

1 . 0 

3 . 2 

5 . 3 

0 . 9 

4 . 6 

2 . 5 

16. 3 

15. 6 

6 . 0 

79. 7 

86. 2 

83. 3 

81. 1 

92. 4 

91. 0 

88. 7 

89. 5 

88. 8 

89. 0 

91. 8 

94. 6 

93. 9 

94. 4 

94. 4 

94. 3 

93. 7 

94. 1 

95. 6 

99. 4 

99. 3 

102. 2 

105. 3 

109. 6 

112. 4 

114. 9 

126. 6 

145. 0 

160. 3 

(1967=100 ) 

79! 5 

86. 7 

82. 9 

81. 7 

92. 6 

90. 8 

88. 9 

89. 6 

88. 3 

89. 8 

91. 9 

94. 9 

93. 7 

94. 3 

93. 9 

94. 3 

94. 2 

94. 0 

95. 9 

99. 0 

99. 4 

102. 3 

106. 2 

109. 3 

112. 8 

115. 6 

127. 4 

146. 5 

161. 9 

WHOLESALE PRICES 

79. 5 

87. 1 

82. 8 

82. 1 

92. 3 

90. 6 

89. 0 

89. 1 

88. 9 

90. 2 

92. 3 

94. 7 

93. 7 

94. 4 

93. 8 

94. 0 

94. 4 

94. 2 

96. 3 

98. 5 

100. 2 

102. 6 

106. 8 

109. 6 

113. 2 

116. 2 

129. 0 

145. 9 

163. 3 

79. 4 

87. 4 

82. 0 

83. 8 

91. 4 

91. 0 

89. 2 

89. 3 

88. 0 

89. 9 

92. 6 

94. 5 

93. 4 

94. 7 

94. 0 

94. 0 

94. 4 

94. 3 

96. 2 

98. 9 

100. 1 

102. 9 

106. 9 

109. 7 

112. 6 

116. 8 

128. 4 

149. 5 

164. 6 

80. 2 

87. 6 

81. 8 

85. 4 

91. 2 

90. 9 

89. 1 

89. 2 

88. 2 

89. 8 

92. 8 

94. 3 

93. 1 

94. 6 

94. 3 

94. 6 

94. 2 

94. 3 

96. 4 

100. 2 

100. 4 

103. 0 

107. 1 

109. 5 

113. 4 

117. 3 

134. 1 

152. 0 

165. 3 

, CONSUMER FINISHED GOODS 

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT) 

61 7 

-0. 5 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

-0. 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 6 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

-0. 5 

-0. 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 7 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 1 

1 . 0 

1 . 1 

1 . 3 

-0. 3 

0 . 6 

-0. 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 6 

0 . 9 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

-0. 1 

-0. 5 

0 . 0 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

-0. 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 9 

-0. 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 6 

0 . 6 

1 . 0 

1 . 0 

WHOLESALE PRICES 

0 . 0 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 5 

-0. 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 6 

0 . 7 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

-0. 5 

0 . 8 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

1 . 3 

-0. 4 

0 . 9 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

-1. 0 

2 . 1 

-1. 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

-1. 0 

-0. 3 

0 . 3 

-0. 2 

-0. 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 5 

0 . 5 

-0. 5 

2 . 5 

0 . 8 

1 . 0 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

1 . 9 

-0. 2 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

-0. 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

1 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 4 

4 . 4 

1 . 7 

0 . 4 

, CONSUMER FINISHED GOODS 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

... 

2 ! 3 

-6. 7 

7 . 6 

1 . 3 

-0. 4 

-0. 2 

-0. 4 

-1. 8 

3 . 4 

2 . 9 

0 . 9 

-1. 1 

3 . 0 

-2. 1 

-1. 7 

0 . 0 

-0. 8 

3 . 6 

1 . 4 

1 . 2 

4 . 0 

4 . 8 

0 . 2 

2 . 7 

4 . 2 

13. 0 

15. 2 

6 . 8 

4 . 7 

-4. 9 

10. 9 

-2. 4 

-0. 7 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

-1. 8 

2 . 7 

2 . 4 

0 . 4 

-1. 5 

2 . 8 

-2. 3 

-0. 6 

0 . 0 

0 . 6 

4 . 1 

2 . 4 

2 . 2 

3 . 0 

5 . 4 

0 . 2 

3 . 3 

4 . 2 

20. 4 

14. 1 

8 . 5 

3 . 8 

-5. 0 

13. 0 

-2. 2 

-1. 7 

1 . 6 

-0. 9 

-0. 5 

2 . 9 

2 . 2 

-1. 7 

1 . 3 

0 . 9 

-1. 9 

1 . 9 

1 . 1 

0 . 9 

3 . 4 

2 . 4 

3 . 5 

3 . 8 

5 . 0 

2 . 2 

2 . 5 

5 . 8 

13. 5 

14. 3 

10. 9 

6 . 1 

1 . 4 

-4. 5 

14. 0 

-1. 7 

-1. 5 

1 . 4 

-2. 2 

-1. 3 

3 . 6 

2 . 6 

-1. 1 

-1. 3 

1 . 9 

-1. 1 

0 . 9 

1 . 1 

0 . 9 

2 . 7 

1 . 8 

2 . 6 

3 . 4 

5 . 4 

1 . 6 

2 . 1 

4 . 8 

11. 0 

15. 6 

9 . 8 

9.3 

-1. 4 

-3. 8 

14. 7 

-1. 9 

-1. 8 

0 . 0 

-2. 0 

0 . 2 

2 . 7 

3 . 3 

-1. 9 

-1. 7 

2 . 6 

0 . 2 

1 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 9 

2 . 9 

2 . 0 

2 . 8 

3 . 4 

5 . 3 

2 . 9 

2 . 1 

4 . 9 

11. 1 

17. 6 

7 . 7 

81. 3 

87. 2 

81. 6 

86. 2 

91. 1 

90. 5 

89. 7 

88. 6 

88. 4 

90. 4 

92. 6 

94. 4 

94. 2 

94. 6 

94. 0 

95. 5 

94. 1 

94. 5 

96. 5 

100. 5 

100. 7 

103. 7 

107. 4 

110. 7 

113. 2 

118. 1 

133. 5 

153. 3 

166. 7 

, OVER 1 

i!4 

-0. 5 

-0. 2 

0 . 9 

-0. 1 

-0. 4 

0 . 7 

-0. 7 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

1 . 2 

0 . 0 

-0. 3 

1 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

0 . 3 

1 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 7 

-0. 4 

0 . 9 

0 . 8 

, OVER 6 

liI6 

-3. 6 

-4. 8 

18. 0 

-1. 1 

-3. 3 

0 . 0 

-1. 1 

-0. 9 

2 . 2 

3 . 3 

-1. 5 

-1. 1 

1 . 7 

1 . 3 

1 . 1 

-0. 6 

0 . 2 

3 . 8 

2 . 5 

1 . 6 

2 . 9 

4 . 4 

2 . 0 

2 . 8 

5 . 9 

10. 7 

18. 2 

6 . 1 

| Oct. 

82! l 

86. 8 

81. 4 

86. 6 

91. 6 

90. 3 

89. 3 

88. 5 

88. 2 

90. 6 

93. 0 

94. 1 

93. 3 

95. 3 

93. 9 

94. 7 

94. 2 

94. 5 

96. 9 

100. 3 

100. 6 

103. 9 

108. 1 

110. 5 

113. 6 

117. 6 

133. 4 

155. 9 

168. 0 

Nov. 

83. 1 

86. 1 

81. 3 

87. 5 

91. 7 

90. 0 

88. 9 

88. 7 

88. 4 

91. 0 

93. 4 

94. 0 

92. 9 

95. 5 

94. 0 

94. 8 

94. 3 

94. 4 

97. 3 

100. 0 

100. 8 

104. 0 

109. 0 

110. 9 

114. 0 

118. 4 

134. 3 

158. 9 

168. 0 

-MONTH SPANS' 

i!6 -0. 5 

-0. 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

-0. 2 

-0. 4 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

-0. 3 

-1. 0 

0 . 7 

-0. 1 

-0. 8 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

-0. 2 

0 . 4 

-0. 4 

-0. 1 

1 . 7 

0 . 8 

1 . 2 

-0. 8 

-0. 1 

1 . 0 

0 . 1 

-0. 3 

-0. 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

-0. 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 8 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

0 . 7 

1 . 9 

0 . 0 

-MONTH SPANS' 

18i 4 

-5. 6 

-2. 9 

17. 4 

-0. 4 

-3. 7 

0 . 7 

-1. 1 

0 . 9 

3 . 1 

3 . 3 

-1. 3 

-0. 2 

0 . 6 

1 . 7 

0 . 9 

0 . 6 

0 . 4 

4 . 2 

1 . 2 

1 . 6 

2 . 9 

5 . 1 

2 . 6 

3 . 2 

7 . 0 

17. 7 

13. 5 

4 . 3 

13. 9 

-8. 3 

-1. 7 

16. 8 

0 . 0 

-3. 9 

-0. 2 

-0. 4 

0 . 9 

4 . 3 

2 . 8 

-1. 1 

0 . 4 

1 . 7 

1 . 3 

-0. 8 

-0. 4 

0 . 4 

5 . 5 

-1. 8 

2 . 2 

2 . 5 

4 . 3 

3 . 9 

2 . 7 

8 . 5 

12. 6 

9 . 0 

2 . 1 

Dec. 

84! 5 

85. 5 

80. 8 

89. 2 

91. 8 

89. 1 

89. 0 

88. 6 

88. 5 

91. 2 

93. 8 

94. 0 

93. 2 

95. 2 

94. 4 

94. 5 

94. 1 

94. 3 

98. 1 

99. 7 

101. 0 

104. 1 

109. 1 

110. 7 

114. 8 

119. 6 

135. 7 

158. 6 

168. 2 

l'.l 

-0. 7 

-0. 6 

1 . 9 

0 . 1 

-1. 0 

0 . 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

0 . 4 

-0. 3 

-0. 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 8 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 7 j 

1 . 0 

1 . 0 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

16I9 

-7. 9 

-1. 2 

14. 2 

0 . 4 

-3. 3 

-1. 6 

0 . 0 

1 . 6 

2 . 7 

5 . 7 

-1. 7 

0 . 0 

0 . 6 

1 . 3 

-3. 9 

0 . 0 

0 . 8 

5 . 9 

-3. 0 

2 . 2 

2 . 1 

3 . 9 

2 . 0 

2 . 8 

12. 6 

15. 4 

6 . 6 

0 . 0 

Quarterly 

IQ 

85. 9 

84. 2 

81. 0 

91. 7 

91. 2 

89. 1 

89. 2 

88. 8 

88. 7 

91. 5 

94. 5 

93. 8 

93. 6 

95. 1 

94. 8 

94. 1 

94. 3 

94. 6 

98. 8 

99. 3 

101. 4 

104. 5 

109. 5 

111. 5 

114. 7 

122. 8 

141. 7 

158. 8 

0 . 4 

-U. 7 

0 . 1 

1 . 1 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

1 . 6 

1 . 9 

-0. 1 

8.*4 

-7. 1 

1 . 2 

11. 0 

-2. 0 

-2. 0 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

3 . 0 

2 . 4 

2 . 9 

-0. 5 

2 . 7 

-2. 7 

0 . 2 

-1. 2 

-0. 2 

3 . 3 

3 . 2 

-0. 7 

3 . 1 

4 . 1 

1 . 4 

3 . 9 

2 . 5 

16. 0 

17. 6 

5 . 2 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

79! 6 80i 3 

86. 7 87. 4 

83. 0 81. 8 

81. 6 85. 1 

92. 4 91. 2 

90. 8 90. 8 

88. 9 89. 3 

89. 4 89. 0 

88. 7 88. 2 

89. 7 90. 0 

92. 0 92. 7 

94. 7 94. 4 

93. 8 93. 6 

94. 4 94. 6 

94. 0 94. 1 

94. 2 94. 7 

94. 1 94. 2 

94. 1 94. 4 

95. 9 96. 4 

99. 0 99. 9 

99. 6 100. 4 

102. 4 103. 2 

106. 1 107. 1 

109. 5 110. 0 

112. 8 113. 1 

115. 6 117. 4 

127. 7 132. 0 

145. 8 151. 6 

161. 8 165. 5 

AVERAGE FOR 

'.'.'. o'.Q 

0 . 6 0. 0 

-0. 4 -0. 5 

0 . 4 1. 6 

0 . 1 -0. 4 

-0. 2 0. 0 

0 . 0 0. 3 

0 . 0 -0. 2 

0 . 1 -0. 2 

0 . 4 0. 1 

0 . 2 0. 1 

-0. 2 -0. 1 

0 . 0 0. 2 

0 . 1 0. 1 

-0. 4 0. 1 

-0. 2 0. 5 

0 . 3 -0. 1 

0 . 0 0. 1 

0 . 5 0. 1 

-0. 3 0. 7 

0 . 4 0. 2 

0 . 3 0. 4 

0 . 7 0. 2 

0 . 0 0. 3 

0 . 4 0. 0 

0 . 4 0. 5 

1 . 0 1. 2 

0 . 6 1. 7 

1 . 1 0. 7 

AVERAGE FOR 

'.'.'. 9 ! 5 

3 . 6 -1. 2 

-5. 5 -4. 4 

10. 5 15. 6 

-1. 1 -1. 6 

-0. 9 -2. 2 

0 . 5 0. 5 

-0. 3 -1. 8 

-1. 4 -0. 7 

3 . 0 2. 8 

2 . 5 3. 1 

-0. 1 -1. 5 

-0. 4 -1. 4 

2 . 2 2. 1 

-2. 1 0. 1 

-0. 1 1. 0 

0 . 4 0. 2 

0 . 2 0. 7 

3 . 7 3. 1 

2 . 1 2. 1 

2 . 3 2. 3 

3 . 6 3. 2 

5 . 1 5. 0 

0 . 9 2. 2 

2 . 8 2. 3 

4 . 7 5. 2 

15. 6 10. 9 

14. 5 17. 1 

8 . 7 7. 9 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

83^2 

86. 1 

81. 2 

87. 8 

91. 7 

89. 8 

89. 1 

88. 6 

88. 4 

90. 9 

93. 4 

94. 0 

93. 1 

95. 3 

94. 1 

94. 7 

94. 2 

94. 4 

97. 4 

100. 0 

100. 8 

104. 0 

108. 7 

110. 7 

114. 1 

118. 5 

134. 5 

157. 8 

168. 1 

PERIOD 

ili -0. 7 

-0. 3 

1 . 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 5 

-0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

-0. 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

-0. 3 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 5 

-0. 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

0 . 0 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

1 . 1 

0 . 3 

PERIOD 

14^4 

-7. 3 

-1. 9 

16. 1 

0 . 0 

-3. 6 

-0. 4 

-0. 5 

1 . 1 

3 . 4 

3 . 9 

-1. 4 

0 . 1 

1 . 0 

1 . 4 

-1. 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

5 . 2 

-1. 2 

2 . 0 

2 . 5 

4 . 4 

2 . 8 

2 . 9 

9 . 4 

15. 2 

9 . 7 

2 . 1 

Annual 

8o! 5 

86. 5 

82. 5 

83. 9 

91. 8 

90. 7 

89. 1 

j 89. 1 

88. 5 

89. 8 

92. 4 

94. 4 

93. 6 

94. 5 

94. 3 

94. 6 

94. 2 

94. 3 

96. 1 

99. 4 

100. 0 

102. 7 

106. 6 

110. 0 

112. 7 

! 116. 6 

129. 2 

149. 3 

163. 6 

o!i -0. 5 

0 . 8 

0 . 2 

1 -0. 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

1 -0. 1 

0 . 2 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

! 1. 1 

1 . 3 

0 . 5 

6.9 -4. 7 

10. 8 

2 . 1 

-2. 2 

-0. 4 

-0. 5 

-0. 2 

3 . 0 

3 . 0 

0 . 0 

-0. 6 

2 . 0 

-0. 8 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

3 . 8 

1 . 5 

1 . 5 

3 . 1 

4 . 7 

1 . 8 

3 . 0 

5 . 5 

14. 4 

14. 7 

6 . 0 

'Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

BCD 1977 115 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

194b.. . 

194b.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

19b6.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

19:JD.. . 

195o.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

19bl.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July 

340 . AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, PRODUCTION WORKERS IN 

87*. 2 

89. 9 

93. 5 

97. 8 

103. 2 

109. 8 

117. 0 

125. 4 

134. 1 

141. 8 

151. 6 

166. 0 

340-C 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 7 

0 . 9 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

340-C 

4 . 0 

4 . 1 

5 . 1 

6 . 6 

6 . 2 

5 . 9 

7 . 6 

8 . 1 

6 . 5 

7 . 5 

8 . 1 

87* 3 

90. 3 

93. 7 

98. 2 

103. 8 

110. 5 

117. 8 

126. 2 

134. 4 

142. 2 

152. 4 

167. 4 

87. 6 

90. 7 

94. 0 

98. 5 

104. 3 

111. 1 

118. 5 

126. 8 

135. 1 

143. 0 

153. 6 

168. 9 

. PERCENT CHANGES 

0*.l 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 7 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 8 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 8 

0 . 9 

. PERCENT CHANGES 

4 . 1 

4 . 0 

4 . 7 

6 . 5 

6 . 5 

5 . 8 

7 . 9 

8 . 0 

6 . 2 

8 . 7 

8 . 1 

3 . 8 

4 . 2 

4 . 9 

6 . 9 

6 . 6 

6 . 7 

7 . 6 

5 . 8 

6 . 2 

10. 0 

8 . 4 

(INDEX: 1967=100 ) 

87. 7 87. 8 88. 0 

90. 8 91. 2 91. 4 

94. 6 94. 8 95. 2 

99. 0 99. 3 99. 7 

104. 8 105. 3 106. 0 

111. 6 112. 3 113. 0 

119. 0 119. 7 120. 4 

127. 5 128. 5 128. 9 

136. 2 136. 4 136. 6 

144. 2 144. 5 145. 6 

154. 5 156. 2 158. 2 

169. 3 170. 3 171. 8 

88. 3 

91. 7 

95. 4 

100. 4 

106. 5 

113. 6 

121. 1 

129. 6 

137. 5 

146. 5 

158. 9 

172. 7 

Aug. 

PRIVATE 

88. 8 

92. 1 

95. 7 

100.fa 

107. 0 

114. 1 

122. 2 

130. 3 

137. 9 

147. 1 

160. 1 

174. 2 

IN INDEX OF AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT) 

O . i 0. 2 0. 2 

0 . 1 0. 5 0. 2 

0 . 7 0. 2 0. 4 

0 . 6 0. 2 0. 4 

0 . 5 0. 4 0. 7 

0 . 4 0. 7 0. 7 

0 . 4 0. 6 0. 6 

0 . 6 0. 8 0. 3 

0 . 8 0. 1 0. 1 

0 . 8 0. 2 0. 8 

0 . 6 1. 1 1. 3 

0 . 2 0. 6 0. 9 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 6 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 9 

0 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 8 

0 . 9 

> IN INDEX OF AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

2*8 3. 4 3. 0 

4 . 1 3. 9 3. 7 

4 . 0 4. 4 4. 8 

5 . 2 4. 9 5. 2 

6 . 5 6. 4 6. 6 

7 . 1 6. 7 6. 8 

7 . 1 7. 6 7. 1 

6 . 7 6. 6 6. 2 

5 . 1 5. 2 5. 3 

6 . 7 7. 1 7. 7 

9 . 8 10. 3 10. 9 

8 . 2 8. 3 7. 1 

3*i 

4 . 4 

4 . 3 

5 . 0 

6 . 7 

7 . 4 

7 . 2 

5 . 4 

5 . 3 

6 . 8 

11. 1 

8 . 3 

3 . 6 

3 . 8 

4 . 8 

5 . 6 

6 . 8 

7 . 3 

7 . 1 

4 . 3 

5 . 7 

7 . 6 

9 . 9 

8 . 8 

Sept. 

NONFARM 

88. 9 

92. 3 

96. 2 

101.U 

107. 7 

114. 8 

122. 7 

130. 6 

138. 7 

148. 4 

161. 7 

174. 8 

1-MONTH 

o'i 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 6 

0 . 6 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 6 

0 . 9 

1 . 0 

0 . 3 

6-MONTH 

4 . 0 

3 . 9 

4 . 6 

5 . 7 

6 . 8 

6 . 3 

6 . 9 

6 . 3 

6 . 9 

7 . 4 

8 . 8 

7 . 4 

Oct. 

ECONOMY ' 

89. 0 

92. 8 

9b. 6 

101. 5 

1U8. 3 

115. 6 

123. 2 

130. 9 

139. 7 

149. 0 

162. 8 

176. 2 

SPANS

 J 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 7 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 7 

0 . 4 

0 . 7 

0 . 8 

SPANS

 2 

3*5 

4 . 1 

5 . 2 

5 . 8 

6 . 2 

6 . 1 

7 . 5 

7 . 0 

6 . 5 

7 . 0 

9 . 2 

7 . 9 

Nov. 

89. 4 

93. 0 

97. 0 

102.U 

108. 8 

116. 4 

123. 9 

131. 2 

140. 2 

149. 8 

163. 8 

177. 6 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 6 

0 . 2 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 8 

3*5 

3 . 6 

5 . 3 

6 . 4 

6 . 6 

6 . 5 

7 . 2 

6 . 3 

6 . 4 

7 . 3 

9 . 3 

7 . 2 

Dec. 

89. 8 

93. 2 

97. 4 

102. 5 

109. 5 

Ufa.fa 

124. 5 

132. 9 

141. 3 

150. 8 

165. 0 

178. 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

0 . 5 

O.fa 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

1 . 3 

0 . 8 

0 . 7 

0 . 7 

0 . 2 

4*0 

3 . 7 

4 . 8 

6 . 6 

6 . 5 

6 . 7 

6 . 9 

7 . 0 

6 . 3 

7 . 1 

9 . 1 

7 . 3 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

87. 4 

90. 3 

9 3. 7 

98. 2 

103. a 

110. 4 

117. 8 

126. 1 

134. 5 

142. 3 

152. 5 

lo7. 4 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

U . 4 

0 . 6 

0 . 8 

4 . 0 

4 . 1 

4 . 9 

6 . 7 

6 . 4 

6 . 1 

7 . 7 

7 . 3 

6 . 3 

8 . 7 

8 . 2 

II Q III Q IVQ 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

87. 8 88. 7 

91. 2 92. 0 

94. 9 95. 8 

99. 4 100. 6 

105. 3 107. 1 

112. 3 114. 2 

119. 7 122. 0 

128. 3 130. 2 

136. 4 138. 0 

144. 8 147. 3 

156. 3 160. 2 

170. 5 173. 9 

AVERAGE FOR 

0 . 2 0. 3 

0 . 3 0. 3 

0 . 4 0. 3 

0 . 4 0. 4 

0 . 5 0. 5 

0 . 6 0. 5 

0 . 5 0. 6 

0 . 6 0. 4 

0 . 3 0. 5 

0 . 6 0. 6 

1 . 0 0. 7 

0 . 6 0. 6 

AVERAGE FOR 

3 * 1 3. 6 

3 . 9 4. 0 

4 . 4 4. 6 

5 . 1 5. 4 

6 . 5 6. 8 

6 . 9 7. 0 

7 . 3 7. 1 

6 . 5 5. 3 

5 . 2 6. 0 

7 . 2 7. 3 

10. 3 9. 9 

7 . 9 8. 2 

89. 4 

93. 0 

97. 0 

102. 0 

108. 9 

116. 2 

123. 9 

131. 7 

140. 4 

149. 9 

163. 9 

177. 3 

PERIOD 

0*3 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 7 

0 . 6 

PERIOD 

3*7 

3 . 8 

5 . 1 

6 . 3 

6 . 4 

6 . 4 

7 . 2 

6 . 8 

6 . 4 

7 . 1 

9 . 2 

7 . 5 

Annual 

42. 6 

4b. 0 

48. 2 

50. 0 

53. 7 

56. 4 

59. 6 

61. 7 

63. 7 

67. 0 

70. 3 

73. 2 

75. 8 

78. 4 

80. 8 

83. 5 

85. 9 

88. 3 

91. 6 

95. 4 

100. 0 

10b. 3 

113. 3 

120. 8 

129. 4 

137. 8 

146. 6 

158. 6 

172. 7 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

0 . 4 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

0 . 6 

0 . 8 

0 . 6 

3 . 9 

4 . 5 

5 . 4 

6 . 6 

6 . 7 

6 . 9 

6 . 6 

6 . 2 

7 . 0 

9 . 6 

7 . 9 

'Data are adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 

2Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

averages of the centered changes. 

116 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1953.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 

341 . REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, PRODUCTION WORKERS IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY' 

94. 0 94. 3 94. 5 

95. 9 96. 4 96. 7 

97. 9 97. 4 97. 5 

99. 1 99. 3 99. 6 

101. 1 101. 3 101. 4 

102. 8 103. 0 102. 8 

103. 1 103. 2 103. 4 

105. 0 105. 6 105. 8 

108. 6 108. 5 108. 9 

110. 9 110. 4 110. 1 

108. 4 107. 7 107. 2 

106. 1 106. 4 106. 9 

341-C . CHANGE IN 

... ... ... 

! . . 0. 3 0. 2 

0 . 0 0. 5 0. 3 

0 . 2 -0. 5 0. 1 

0 . 3 0. 2 0. 3 

0 . 3 0. 2 0. 1 

0 . 0 0. 2 -0. 2 

-0. 1 0. 1 0. 2 

0 . 5 0. 6 0. 2 

0 . 6 -0. 1 0. 4 

-0. 2 -0. 5 -0. 3 

-0. 5 -0. 6 -0. 5 

-0. 1 0. 3 0. 5 

341-C . CHANGE IN 

... ... ... 

... ... ... 

... ... ... 

2 . 2 2. 2 1. 5 

I 0. 0 0. 1 0. 8 

3 . 7 3. 0 2. 6 

2 . 5 2. 4 2. 4 

I 0. 6 1. 1 0. 6 

-0. 7 -0. 7 0. 9 

3 . 7 4. 0 3. 5 

4 . 5 4. 3 2. 7 

-0. 5 -1. 2 -3. 2 

-3. 5 -3. 1 -2. 2 

0 . 1 0. 9 1. 2 

94. 5 

96. 5 

97. 8 

99. 9 

101. 8 

102. 7 

103. 3 

106. 1 

109. 5 

110. 2 

107. 3 

106. 6 

INDEX OF 

(INDEX: 1967=100 ) 

9A.1 94. 8 

96. 7 96. 6 

97. 8 98. 1 

100. 0 100. 0 

101. 8 102. 0 

103. 0 103. 1 

103. 4 103. 7 

106. 4 106. 2 

109. 3 109. 4 

109. 8 109. 9 

107. 3 107. 7 

106. 8 106. 9 

95^6 95i5 

96. 9 97. 4 

98. 1 97. 8 

100. 4 100. 2 

102. 0 102. 1 

103. 2 103. 2 

104. 0 104. 5 

106. 5 106. 8 

109. 6 109. 8 

110. 5 109. 1 

107. 4 106. 9 

106. 5 107. 1 

95* 5 

97. 5 

98. 1 

100. 3 

102. 4 

103. 3 

104. 5 

107. 0 

110. 0 

109. 6 

106. 8 

107. 0 

9s! 5 

97. 8 

98. 1 

100. 5 

102. 4 

103. 6 

104. 4 

107. 1 

110. 5 

109. 2 

106. 6 

107. 2 

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS2 

(MONTHLY RATE, PERCENT) 

o!6 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 3 

0 . 4 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 6 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

-0. 3 

INDEX OF 

o]2 o.i 

0 . 2 -0. 1 

0 . 0 0. 3 

0 . 1 0. 0 

0 . 0 0. 2 

0 . 3 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 3 

0 . 3 -0. 2 

-0. 2 0. 1 

-0. 4 0. 1 

0 . 0 0. 4 

0 . 2 0. 1 

o'.i o'.s 

0 . 3 0. 5 

0 . 0 -0. 3 

0 . 4 -0. 2 

0 . 0 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 0 

0 . 3 0. 5 

0 . 3 0. 3 

0 . 2 0. 2 

0 . 5 -1. 3 

-0. 3 -0. 5 

-0. 4 0. 6 

6!6 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 6-MONTt 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

2 * 2 

2 . 0 

0 . 3 

2 . 5 

1 . 8 

0 . 8 

1 . 7 

2 . 7 

| 1. 8 

-0. 7 

-1. 7 

0 . 7 

... ... 

... ... 

2 . 6 2. 1 

2 . 1 1. 6 

0 . 8 1. 2 

1 . 8 1. 5 

1 . 5 2. 0 

0 . 5 0. 9 

2 . 5 2. 1 

2 . 2 2. 3 

2 . 4 2. 0 

-2. 4 -0. 9 

-1. 4 -0. 9 

1 . 3 0. 1 

... ... 

2 . 1 2* 1 

2 . 7 2. 1 

0 . 6 1. 5 

1 . 1 1. 2 

1 . 3 1. 3 

1 . 7 1. 3 

2 . 1 2. 1 

1 . 8 1. 3 

1 1. 9 2. 1 

-1. 7 -1. 5 

-1. 4 -1. 9 

1 . 1 1. 3 

2 . 4 

2 . 3 

1 . 4 

1 . 5 

1 . 6 

0 . 2 

1 . 6 

3 . 4 

4 . 4 

-1. 9 

-2. 6 

0 . 6 

6*6 

0 . 4 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 5 

-0. 4 

-0. 2 

0 . 2 

SPANS

 2 

i'.'e 

2 . 2 

2 . 1 

1 . 5 

1 . 5 

-0. 2 

2 . 3 

4 . 1 

1 2.3 

1 -3.9 

-2. 5 

1 . 6 

95!*" 

97. 8 

98. 5 

100. 6 

102. 5 

103. 7 

104. 4 

107. 0 

110. 5 

109. 0 

106. 3 

107. 4 

o'.l 

0 . 0 

0 . 4 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 1 

0 . 0 

-0. 2 

-0. 3 

0 . 2 

1 . 9 

0 . 1 

3 . 0 

2 . 3 

1 . 6 

0 . 1 

2 . 6 

3 . 1 

1 . 2 

-2. 6 

-1. 0 

1 . 4 

Dec. 

95. 9 

97. 7 

98. 8 

100. 8 

102. 8 

103. 2 

104. 5 

107. 9 

111. 1 

108. 9 

106. 2 

107. 2 

o!2 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 3 

-0. 5 

0 . 1 

0 . 8 

0 . 5 

-0. 1 

-0. 1 

-0. 2 

2 . 5 

0 . 1 

3 . 0 

2 . 3 

0 . 8 

0 . 3 

2 . 7 

3 . 6 

0 . 2 

-4. 3 

0 . 3 

1 . 9 

Quarterly 

IQ 

... 

... 

94* 3 

96. 3 

97. 6 

99. 3 

101. 3 

102. 9 

103. 2 

105. 5 

108. 7 

110. 5 

107. 8 

106. 5 

0 . 3 

-0. 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 4 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

-0. 5 

0 . 2 

2 . 0 

0 . 3 

3 . 1 

2 . 4 

0 . 8 

-0. 2 

3 . 7 

3 . 8 

-1. 6 

1 -2.9 

0 . 7 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

94* 6 95* 3 

96. 6 97. 2 

97. 9 98. 0 

100. 0 100. 3 

101. 9 102. 2 

102. 9 103. 2 

103. 5 104. 3 

106. 2 106. 8 

109. 4 109. 8 

110. 0 109. 7 

107. 4 107. 0 

106. 8 106. 9 

AVERAGE FOR 

... ... 

... 

0 . 1 0* 3 

0 . 0 0. 3 

0 . 2 0. 0 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 2 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 1 

0 . 1 0. 3 

0 . 1 0. 3 

0 . 2 0. 2 

-0. 1 -0. 1 

0 . 2 -0. 3 

0 . 0 0. 0 

AVERAGE FOR 

2 * 3 2*2 

1 . 9 2. 4 

0 . 8 1. 2 

1 . 9 1. 3 

1 . 8 1. 4 

0 . 7 1. 1 

2 . 1 1. 9 

2 . 4 2. 2 

2 . 1 2. 8 

-1. 3 -1. 7 

-1. 3 -2. 0 

0 . 7 1. 0 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

95. 7 

97. 8 

98. 5 

100. 6 

102. 6 

103. 5 

104. 4 

107. 3 

110. 7 

109. 0 

106. 4 

107. 3 

PERIOD 

0 . 1 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 3 

0.3l 

-0. 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

PERIOD 

2 * 1 

0 . 8 

2 . 7 

2 . 0 

1 . 3 

0 . 1 

2 . 5 

3 . 6 

1 . 2 

-3. 6 

-1. 1 

1 . 6 

Annual 

63* 7 

63. 8 

67. 5 

! 69. 3 

69. 0 

70. 9 

74. 4 

76. 6 

79. 4 

82. 3 

83. 4 

84. 5 

86. 8 

88. 4 

90. 2 

92. 2 

93. 7 

95. 1 

97. 0 

98. 1 

100. 0 

102. 0 

103. 2 

103. 9 

106. 7 

110. 0 

110. 2 

107. 4 

107. 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 1 

0 . 2 

0 . 2 

0 . 0 

0 . 1 

0 . 3 

0 . 2 

-0. 2 

-0. 2 

0 . 1 

1 . 8 

1 . 2 

2 . 1 

1 . 7 

0 . 7 

1 . 6 

3 . 0 

2 . 5 

-2. 1 

-1. 8 

1 . 0 

'Data are adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 

"Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 

averages of the centered changes. 

Quarterly and annual figures are 

BCD 1977 117 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947. . . 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954. . . 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

19o2... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968. .. 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954. .. 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975. .. 

1976... 

1945... 

1946. .. 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960. .. 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

60,095 

60,771 

61,661 

61,941 

62,432 

63,439 

63,101 

63,910 

66,419 

66,428 

67,095 

67,936 

68,962 

70,447 

70,189 

71,146 

72,356 

73,569 

75,186 

76,639 

77,578 

79,523 

82,077 

83,678 

85,596 

86,868 

90,308 

91,953 

58,061 

58,175 

57,635 

59,636 

60,460 

61,600 

60,024 

60,753 

63,753 

63,632 

63,220 

63,868 

65,347 

65,776 

66,108 

67,072 

68,327 

69,997 

72,198 

73,671 

74,700 

76,805 

78,864 

78,710 

80,630 

82,622 

85,789 

84,673 

1,233 

1,570 

2,349 

1,236 

998 

1,078 

1,662 

1,812 

1,442 

1,457 

2,216 

2,284 

1,926 

2,544 

2,042 

2,087 

1,887 

1,600 

1,203 

1,X)57 

1,065 

927 

1,189 

2,083 

2,037 

1,638 

1,680 

2,995 

Feb. 

60,524 

61,057 

61,687 

61,778 

62,419 

63,520 

63,994 

63,696 

66,124 

66,879 

67,201 

67,649 

68,949 

70,420 

70,409 

71,262 

72,683 

73,857 

74,954 

76,521 

78,230 

80,019 

82,155 

83,346 

85,567 

87,708 

90,582 

91,621 

58,196 

58,208 

57,751 

59,661 

60,462 

61,884 

60,663 

60,727 

63,518 

64,257 

62,898 

63,684 

65,620 

65,588 

66,538 

67,024 

68,751 

70,127 

72,134 

73,606 

75,229 

77,327 

78,707 

78,469 

80,691 

83,330 

85,953 

84,259 

444. 

1,281 

1,734 

2,295 

1,096 

994 

901 

1,816 

1,719 

1,425 

1,391 

2,460 

2,258 

1,772 

2,579 

1,948 

2,137 

1,805 

1,615 

1,161 

1,040 

1,105 

903 

1,331 

2,052 

1,960 

1,651 

1,753 

3,127 

Mar. 

441. 

60,070 

61,073 

61,604 

62,526 

61,721 

63,657 

63,793 

63,882 

66,175 

66,913 

67,223 

68,068 

68,399 

70,703 

70,414 

71,423 

72,713 

73,949 

75,075 

76,328 

78,256 

80,079 

82,446 

83,302 

86,189 

88,247 

90,611 

92,020 

442. 

57,67i 

53,043 

57,728 

60,401 

59,908 

62,010 

60,186 

60,964 

63,411 

64,404 

62,731 

64,267 

64,673 

65,850 

66,493 

67,351 

68,763 

70,439 

72,188 

73,439 

75,379 

77,367 

78,818 

78,346 

81,208 

83,939 

86,091 

84,243 

NUMBER U 

1,334 

1,874 

2,327 

1,007 

947 

842 

1,989 

1,712 

1,459 

1,280 

2,635 

2,062 

1,977 

2,581 

2,008 

2,053 

1,780 

1,525 

1,174 

1,078 

1,043 

900 

1,383 

2,033 

1,996 

1,642 

1,663 

3,338 

Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 

rOTAL CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE SURVEY 

(THOUSANDS) 

60,677 59,972 60,957 

61,007 61,259 60,948 

62,158 62,083 62,419 

61,808 62,044 61,615 

61,720 62,053 62,103 

63,167 62,615 63,063 

63,934 63,675 63,343 

64,564 64,381 64,482 

66,264 66,722 66,702 

66,647 66,695 67,052 

67,647 67,895 67,674 

68,339 68,178 68,278 

69,579 69,626 69,934 

70,267 70,452 70,878 

70,278 70,551 70,514 

71,697 71,832 71,626 

73,274 73,395 73,032 

74,228 74,466 74,412 

75,338 75,447 75,647 

76,777 76,773 77,270 

78,270 78,847 79,120 

80,281 80,125 80,696 

82,690 82,456 82,446 

83,682 83,847 83,514 

86,132 86,340 86,534 

88,339 88,314 88,842 

90,373 90,720 90,997 

92,210 92,789 92,595 

K>TAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 

(THOUSANDS 

58,291 57,854 58,743 

57,747 57,552 57,172 

58,583 58,649 59,052 

59,889 60,188 59,620 

59,909 60,195 60,219 

61,444 61,019 61,456 

60,185 59,908 59,792 

61,515 61,634 61,781 

63,614 63,861 63,820 

64,047 63,985 64,196 

62,631 62,874 62,730 

64,768 64,699 64,849 

65,959 66,057 66,168 

65,374 65,449 65,993 

66,372 66,688 66,670 

67,642 67,615 67,649 

69,356 69,631 69,218 

70,633 71,034 71,025 

72,510 72,497 72,775 

73,882 73,844 74,278 

75,561 76,107 76,182 

77,523 77,412 77,880 

78,894 78,543 78,430 

78,756 78,891 78,599 

81,230 81,464 81,654 

83,962 84,046 84,541 

85,881 86,098 86,151 

84,246 84,475 84,496 

NEMPLOYED, MALES 20 YEARS 

(THOUSANDS 

1,367 1,296 1,199 

1,936 2,265 2,333 

2,235 2,019 1,917 

910 898 994 

938 904 1,001 

975 933 884 

2,133 2,175 2,113 

1,833 1,529 1,482 

1,376 1,477 1,491 

1,415 1,420 1,512 

2,899 2,964 2,985 

1,827 1,810 1,811 

1,923 1,893 1,968 

2,656 2,787 2,569 

2,043 2,021 2,039 

2,006 2,000 1,913 

1,748 1,667 1,743 

1,570 1,517 1,404 

1,103 1,085 1,105 

1,079 1,077 1,077 

976 947 1,013 

904 904 923 

1,490 1,548 1,623 

2,024 2,069 2,045 

1,984 1,980 1,957 

1,622 1,639 1,594 

1,723 1,695 1,751 

3,473 3,710 3,536 

61,181 60,806 

61,301 61,590 

62,121 62,596 

62,106 61,927 

61,962 61,877 

63,057 62,816 

63,302 63,707 

65,145 65,581 

66,752 66,673 

67,336 66,706 

67,824 68,037 

68,539 68,432 

69,745 69,841 

70,536 70,534 

70,302 70,981 

71,956 71,786 

73,007 73,118 

74,761 74,616 

75,736 76,046 

77,464 77,712 

78,970 78,811 

80,827 81,106 

82,876 82,843 

84,114 84,428 

86,635 86,982 

88,818 88,722 

91,205 91,032 

92,917 93,035 

60,815 

61,633 

62,349 

61,780 

62,457 

62,727 

64,209 

65,628 

66,714 

67,064 

68,002 

68,545 

70,151 

70,217 

71,153 

72,131 

73,290 

74,502 

76,056 

77,812 

78,858 

81,290 

82,906 

84,431 

86,902 

89,182 

91,586 

93,126 

, LABOR FORCE SURVEY 

) 

58,968 58,456 

57,190 57,397 

59,001 59,797 

60,156 59,994 

59,971 59,790 

61,397 61,151 

59,643 59,853 

62,513 62,797 

63,800 63,972 

64,540 63,959 

62,745 63,012 

65,011 64,844 

65,909 65,895 

65,608 65,852 

66,483 66,968 

67,905 67,908 

69,399 69,463 

71,460 71,362 

72,860 73,146 

74,520 74,767 

76,087 76,043 

77,959 78,250 

78,696 78,591 

79,099 79,296 

81,758 82,070 

84,567 84,458 

86,213 86,056 

84,856 85,114 

AND OVER, LABOR 

) 

1,191 1,309 

2,522 2,553 

1,817 1,632 

961 1,002 

1,078 1,168 

917 905 

2,121 2,280 

1,420 1,464 

1,455 1,412 

1,447 1,463 

3,027 2,997 

1,850 1,877 

2,045 2,124 

2,622 2,531 

1,994 2,082 

1,900 1,839 

1,663 1,633 

1,394 1,386 

1,121 1,125 

1,034 1,067 

962 987 

985 957 

1,734 1,753 

2,072 2,166 

1,947 1,892 

1,546 1,561 

1,810 1,942 

3,604 3,470 

58,513 

57,584 

59,575 

59,713 

60,521 

60,906 

60,282 

62,950 

64,079 

64,121 

63,181 

64,770 

66,267 

65,541 

67,192 

68,174 

69,578 

71,286 

73,258 

74,854 

76,172 

78,250 

78,452 

79,399 

82,069 

84,850 

86,147 

85,115 

FORCE SU 

1,340 

2,456 

1,557 

1,013 

1,064 

981 

2,293 

1,354 

1,404 

1,644 

2,772 

2,093 

2,139 

2,466 

2,009 

1,804 

1,703 

1,344 

1,063 

991 

962 

1,072 

1,827 

2,146 

1,883 

1,549 

2,001 

3,683 

Oct. 

60,646 

62,185 

62,428 

62,204 

61,971 

62,867 

63,936 

65,821 

66,546 

67,066 

68,045 

68,821 

69,884 

70,492 

70,917 

72,281 

73,308 

74,838 

76,199 

78,194 

78,913 

81,494 

83,250 

84,626 

87,027 

89,450 

91,568 

93,135 

58,387 

57,269 

59,803 

60,010 

60,132 

60,893 

60,270 

62,991 

63,975 

64,046 

63,475 

64,911 

65,632 

65,919 

67,114 

68,294 

69,582 

71,695 

73,401 

75,051 

76,224 

78,445 

78,613 

79,625 

82,103 

85,287 

85,988 

85,087 

RVEY 

1,335 

3,273 

1,459 

1,147 

930 

1,044 

2,254 

1,465 

1,330 

1,710 

2,646 

2,076 

2,295 

2,371 

1,932 

1,851 

1,740 

1,260 

1,016 

1,046 

950 

1,064 

1,934 

2,098 

1,982 

1,516 

2,216 

3,663 

Nov. 

60,702 

62,005 

62,286 

62,014 

62,491 

62,949 

63,759 

66,037 

66,657 

67,123 

67,658 

68,533 

70,439 

70,376 

70,871 

72,418 

73,286 

74,797 

76,610 

78,191 

79,209 

81,397 

83,442 

85,085 

87,000 

89,932 

91,714 

93,025 

58,417 

58,009 

59,697 

59,836 

60,748 

60,738 

60,357 

63,257 

63,796 

63,669 

63,470 

64,530 

66,109 

66,081 

66,847 

68,267 

69,735 

71,724 

73,840 

75,125 

76,494 

78,541 

78,537 

79,944 

82,443 

85,590 

85,608 

85,212 

1,357 

2,468 

1,387 

1,087 

876 

1,278 

2,008 

1,455 

1,481 

1,947 

2,439 

2,297 

2,353 

2,269 

2,043 

1,970 

1,543 

1,224 

1,078 

1,071 

933 

1,003 

2,014 

2,158 

1,769 

1,536 

2,374 

3,538 

Dec. 

61,169 

61,908 

62,068 

62,457 

62,621 

62,795 

63,312 

66,445 

66,700 

67,398 

67,740 

68,994 

70,395 

70,077 

70,854 

72,188 

73,465 

75,093 

76,641 

78,491 

79,463 

81,624 

83,536 

85,227 

87,331 

90,103 

91,700 

93,148 

58,740 

57,845 

59,429 

60,497 

60,954 

59,977 

60,116 

63,684 

63,910 

63,922 

63,549 

65,341 

65,778 

65,900 

66,947 

68,213 

69,814 

72,062 

73,729 

75,473 

76,778 

78,740 

78,480 

80,115 

82,853 

85,686 

85,136 

85,443 

1,450 

2,446 

1,427 

968 

872 

1,575 

1,876 

1,439 

1,532 

2,030 

2,413 

1,883 

2,508 

2,182 

2,035 

1,908 

1,596 

1,204 

1,119 

1,089 

887 

1,062 

2,158 

2,155 

1,702 

1,587 

2,689 

3,334 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

60,230 

60,967 

61,651 

62,082 

62,191 

63,539 

63,629 

63,829 

66,239 

66,740 

b7,173 

67,884 

68,770 

70,523 

70,337 

71,277 

72,584 

73,792 

75,072 

76,496 

78,021 

79,874 

82,226 

83,442 

85,784 

87,608 

90,500 

91,865 

57,976 

58,142 

57,705 

59,899 

60,277 

61,831 

60,291 

60,815 

63,561 

64,098 

62,950 

63,940 

65,213 

65,738 

66,380 

67,149 

68,614 

70,188 

72,173 

73,572 

75,103 

77,166 

78,796 

78,508 

80,843 

83,297 

85,944 

84,392 

1,283 

1,726 

2,324 

1,113 

980 

940 

1,822 

1,748 

1,442 

1,376 

2,437 

2,201 

1,892 

2,568 

1,999 

2,092 

1,824 

1,580 

1,179 

1,058 

1,071 

910 

1,301 

2,056 

1,998 

1,644 

1,699 

3,153 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

60,535 

61,071 

62,220 

61,822 

61,960 

62,948 

63,651 

64,476 

66,563 

66,798 

67,739 

68,265 

69,713 

70,532 

70,448 

71,718 

73,234 

74,369 

75,477 

76,940 

78,746 

80,367 

82,531 

83,681 

86,335 

. 88,498 

90,697 

92,531 

60,934 

61,508 

62,355 

61,933 

62,099 

62,867 

63,739 

65,451 

66,713 

67,035 

67,954 

68,505 

69,912 

70,429 

70,812 

71,958 

73,138 

74,626 

75,946 

77,663 

78,880 

81,074 

82,875 

84,324 

86,840 

88,907 

91,274 

93,026 

AVERAGE FOR 

58,296 

57,490 

58,761 

59,899 

60,108 

61,306 

59,962 

61,643 

63,765 

64,076 

62,745 

64,772 

66,061 

65,605 

66,577 

67,635 

69,402 

70,897 

72,594 

74,001 

75,950 

77,605 

78,622 

78,749 

81,449 

84,183 

86,043 

84,406 

58,646 

57,390 

59,458 

59,954 

60,094 

61,151 

59,926 

62,753 

63,950 

64,207 

62,979 

64,875 

66,024 

65,667 

66,881 

67,996 

69,480 

71,369 

73,088 

74,714 

76,101 

78,153 

78,580 

79,265 

81,966 

84,625 

86,139 

85,028 

AVERAGE FOR 

1,287 

2,178 

2,057 

934 

948 

931 

2,140 

1,615 

1,448 

1,449 

2,949 

1,816 

1,928 

2,671 

2,034 

1,973 

1,719 

1,497 

1,098 

1,078 

979 

910 

1,554 

2,046 

1,974 

1,618 

1,723 

3,573 

1,280 

2,510 

1,669 

992 

1,103 

934 

2,231 

1,413 

1,424 

1,518 

2,932 

1,940 

2,103 

2,540 

2,028 

1,848 

1,666 

1,375 

1,103 

1,031 

970 

1,005 

1,771 

2,128 

1,907 

1,552 

1,918 

3,586 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

60,839 

62,033 

62,261 

62,225 ! 

62,361 

62,870 

63,669 

66,101 

66,634 

67,196 

67,814 

68,783 

70,239 

70,315 

70,881 

72,296 

73,353 | 

74,909 

76,483 

78,292 | 

79,195 

81,505 

83,409 

84,979 

87,119 

89,828 

91,661 

93,103 

PERIOD 

58,515 

57,708 

59,643 

60,114 

60,611 

60,536 

60,248 

63,311 

63,894 

63,879 

63,498 

64,927 

65,840 

65,967 

66,969 

68,258 

69,710 

71,827 

73,657 

75,216 

76,499 

78,575 

78,543 

79,895 

82,466 

85,521 

85,577 

85,247 

PERIOD 

1,381 

2,729 

1,424 

1,067 

893 

1,299 

2,046 

1,453 

1,448 

1,896 

2,499 

2,085 

2,385 

2,274 

2,003 

1,910 

1,626 

1,229 

1,071 

1,069 

923 

1,043 

2,035 

2,137 

1,818 

1,546 

2,426 

3,512 

Annual 

60,622 

61,288 

62,210 

62,017 

62,139 

63,016 

63,642 

65,023 

66,553 

66,928 

67,637 

68,368 

69,629 

70,460 

70,615 

71,834 

73,090 

74,453 

75,777 

77,350 

78,737 

80,734 

82,715 

84,113 

86,542 

88,714 

91,011 

92,613 

58,344 

57,652 

58,921 

59,963 

60,255 

61,180 

60,109 

62,170 

63,801 

64,069 

63,036 

64,629 

65,777 

65,746 

66,703 

67,763 

69,305 

71,088 

72,899 

74,373 

75,921 

77,902 

78,627 

79,119 

81,702 

84,410 

85,935 

84,784 

1,305 

2,219 

1,922 

1,029 

980 

1,019 

2,035 

1,580 

l 1,442 

1,541 

2,681 

2,022 

2,060 

2,518 

2,016 

1,971 

1,718 

1,435 

1,120 

1,060 

993 

963 

1,636 

2,086 

1,928 

1,594 

1 1,918 

3,428 

118 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1 Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. M ay June July 

445. NUMBER UNEMPLOYED, FEMALES 20 YEARS AND OVER, 

418 

589 

1,030 

721 

592 

475 

918 

091 

765 

i 851 

1,058 

1,163 

1,003 

1,283 

1,257 

1,201 

1,272 

1,069 

945 

1,131 

1,061 

993 

1,048 

1,632 

1,610 

1,529 

1,559 

2,559 

593 

646 

999 

692 

623 

445 

955 

822 

697 

783 

1,225 

1,140 

937 

1,408 

1,144 

1,216 

1,281 

1,196 

879 

1,029 

1,052 

992 

1,161 

1,623 

1,493 

1,470 

1,567 

2,537 

584 

621 

962 

769 

537 

520 

1,071 

782 

824 

745 

1,239 

1,137 

1,017 

1,421 

1,161 

1,167 

1,295 

1,107 

884 

1,065 

1,006 

981 

1,285 

1,681 

1,611 

1,474 

1,548 

2,683 

446. NUMBER UNEMP 

383 

437 

647 

348 

382 

286 

497 

454 

459 

488 

601 

621 

686 

844 

782 

786 

870 

903 

840 

780 

752 

798 

976 

1,253 

1,319 

1,079 

1,280 

1,726 

3,719 

3,466 

3,041 

2,391 

2,285 

2,257 

2,088 

2,404 

3,889 

3,896 

3,344 

3,474 

5,895 

454 

469 

642 

329 

340 

290 

560 

428 

484 

448 

618 

567 

620 

845 

779 

885 

846 

919 

780 

846 

844 

797 

956 

1,202 

1,423 

1,257 

1,309 

1,698 

447. 

3,722 

3,377 

3,163 

2,301 

2,193 

2,333 

2,071 

2,664 

3,838 

3,811 

3,395 

3,541 

6,015 

481 

535 

587 

349 

329 

285 

547 

424 

481 

484 

618 

602 

732 

851 

752 

852 

875 

878 

829 

746 

828 

831 

960 

1,242 

1,374 

1,192 

1,309 

1,756 

NUMBER U 

3,624 

3,391 

2,980 

2,349 

2,250 

2,201 

2,026 

2,777 

3,866 

3,857 

3,337 

3,476 

6,327 

584 

751 

842 

693 

567 

455 

1,058 

792 

823 

713 

1,385 

1,064 

1,003 

1,447 

1,126 

1,196 

1,274 

1,093 

889 

1,040 

963 

1,029 

1,245 

1,694 

1,604 

1,456 

1,542 

2,768 

(THOUSANDS)' 

520 590 

857 877 

861 945 

683 663 

592 534 

411 440 

1,054 1,038 

783 796 

863 851 

806 838 

1,349 1,321 

1,040 1,004 

996 1,060 

1,456 1,482 

1,133 1,119 

1,242 1,193 

1,212 1,171 

1,055 1,119 

1,001 905 

1,035 1,067 

968 992 

979 1,038 

1,346 1,288 

1,650 1,615 

1,683 1,651 

1,381 1,519 

1,586 1,643 

2,794 2,728 

590 

996 

839 

631 

558 

453 

1,035 

789 

1,009 

833 

1,304 

1,029 

1,120 

1,448 

1,144 

1,220 

1,161 

1,038 

890 

1,051 

989 

979 

1,379 

1,603 

1,689 

1,513 

1,707 

2,648 

Aug. Sept. Oct. 

LABOR FORCE SURVEY 

620 

1,002 

714 

589 

582 

466 

1,018 

843 

857 

804 

1,351 

985 

1,084 

1,285 

1,235 

1,210 

1,123 

1,040 

938 

985 

967 

1,043 

1,359 

1,685 

1,670 

1,529 

1,746 

2,638 

578 

957 

751 

711 

515 

551 

1,071 

848 

812 

828 

1,269 

1,002 

1,039 

1,327 

1,243 

1,238 

•1,135 

970 

904 

1,134 

928 

1,068 

1,428 

1,649 

1,643 

1,523 

1,904 

2,597 

LOYED, BOTH SEXES 16-19 YEARS OF AGE, LABOR FORCE 

435 

573 

498 

316 

306 

293 

558 

424 

451 

472 

732 

680 

694 

790 

737 

853 

896 

932 

836 

776 

770 

825 

1,061 

1,208 

1,314 

1,299 

1,227 

1,723 

^EMPLOYED 

3,539 

3,339 

3,029 

2,365 

2,247 

2,009 

2,107 

2,939 

3,830 

3,812 

3,318 

3,529 

6,594 

(THOUSANDS) 

302 425 

585 566 

554 505 

275 338 

367 349 

252 283 

538 400 

435 423 

521 540 

484 506 

708 638 

629 614 

680 738 

760 834 

709 686 

975 871 

885 900 

860 864 

864 862 

817 848 

825 933 

830 855 

1,019 1,105 

1,237 1,255 

1,213 1,272 

1,248 1,188 

1,341 1,452 

1,810 1,835 

432 

593 

464 

358 

355 

290 

503 

423 

488 

511 

748 

649 

671 

858 

681 

931 

784 

869 

865 

859 

932 

904 

1,067 

1,340 

1,241 

1,192 

1,475 

1,809 

421 

638 

453 

342 

337 

294 

556 

477 

432 

480 

677 

726 

738 

866 

696 

829 

899 

828 

837 

893 

814 

856 

1,140 

1,281 

1,350 

1,174 

1,288 

1,813 

, FULL-TIME WORKERS, LABOR FORCE 

(THOUSANDS) 

3,613 3,365 

3,196 3,146 

2,875 2,794 

2,423 2,295 

2,277 2,296 

2,049 2,171 

2,026 2,162 

3,160 3,143 

3,915 3,910 

3,916 3,800 

3,264 3,195 

3,565 3,669 

6,936 6,636 1 

3,422 

2,985 

2,692 

2,277 

2,236 

2,179 

2,171 

3,277 

3,990 

3,875 

3,202 

3,861 

6,658 

3,317 

3,053 

2,696 

2,235 

2,267 

2,115 

2,137 

3,330 

4,062 

3,853 

3,255 

3,877 

6,472 

384 

636 

466 

343 

357 

289 

563 

476 

419 

471 

780 

680 

706 

883 

709 

915 

874 

902 

831 

833 

796 

900 

1,199 

1,237 

1,307 

1,260 

1,534 

1,731 

SURVEY 

3,283 

3,105 

2,610 

2,225 

2,295 

2,042 

2,286 

3,489 

4,050 

3,720 

3,257 

4,211 

6,685 ! 

560 

965 

718 

733 

576 

553 

934 

893 

816 

844 

1,221 

1,113 

1,172 

1,371 

1,174 

1,231 

1,130 

967 

955 

1,199 

954 

1,074 

1,464 

1,635 

1,674 

1,397 

1,829 

2,648 

SURVEY 

364 

678 

448 

314 

333 

377 

478 

472 

425 

466 

703 

721 

785 

831 

697 

905 

856 

916 

827 

898 

785 

911 

1,239 

1,268 

1,268 

1,250 

1,535 

1,737 

3,410 

3,081 

2,470 

2,218 

2,417 

2,046 

2,240 

3,690 

3,965 

3,812 

3,144 

4,423 

6,685 

Nov. 

537 

922 

799 

706 

531 

594 

957 

807 

842 

927 

1,065 

1,017 

1,254 

1,224 

1,190 

1,257 

1,157 

1,033 

900 

1,102 

976 

1,013 

1,591 

1,695 

1,508 

1,500 

2,151 

2,618 

391 

606 

403 

385 

336 

339 

437 

518 

538 

580 

684 

689 

723 

802 

791 

924 

851 

816 

792 

893 

806 

840 

1,280 

1,288 

1,280 

1,306 

1,581 

1,657 

3,520 

2,925 

2,493 

2,279 

2,388 

2,042 

2,169 

3,959 

4,113 

3,439 

3,353 

4,844 

6,484 

Dec. 

600 

955 

743 

674 

485 

775 

852 

830 

844 

882 

1,127 

1,050 

1,318 

1,258 

1,168 

1,226 

1,112 

970 

980 

1,088 

955 

977 

1,619 

1,664 

1,493 

1,551 

2,275 

2,628 

379 

662 

469 

318 

310 

468 

468 

492 

414 

564 

651 

720 

791 

737 

704 

841 

943 

857 

813 

841 

843 

845 

1,279 

1,293 

1,283 

1,279 

1,600 

1,743 

3,451 

3,029 

2,459 

2,286 

2,347 

1,934 

2,190 

4,045 

4,090 

3,382 

3,378 

5,237 

6,263 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

532 

619 

997 

727 

584 

480 

981 

832 

762 

793 

1,174 

1,147 

986 

1,371 

1,187 

1,195 

1,233 

1,124 

903 

1,075 

1,040 

989 

1,165 

1,645 

| 1,571 

1,491 

1,558 

2,593 

439 

480 

625 

342 

350 

287 

535 

435 

475 

473 

612 

597 

679 

847 

771 

841 

864 

900 

816 

791 

808 

809 

964 

1,232 

1,372 

1,176 

1,299 

1,727 

3,688 

3,411 

3,061 

2,347 

2,243 

2,264 

2,062 

2,615 

3,864 

3,855 

3,359 

3,497 

6,079 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

565 596 

828 935 

883 768 

680 644 

564 552 

435 490 

1,050 1,041 

790 827 

846 893 

786 823 

1,352 1,308 

1,036 1,005 

1,020 1,081 

1,462 1,353 

1,126 1,207 

1,210 1,223 

1,219 1,140 

1,089 1,016 

932 911 

1,047 1,057 

974 961 

1,015 1,030 

1,293 1,389 

1,653 1,646 

1,646 1,667 

1,452 1,522 

1,590 1,786 

2,763 2,628 

AVERAGE FOR 

337 412 

575 622 

519 461 

310 348 

341 350 

276 291 

499 541 

427 459 

504 446 

487 487 

693 735 

641 685 

704 705 

795 869 

711 695 

900 892 

894 852 

885 866 

854 844 

814 862 

843 847 

837 887 

1,062 1,135 

1,233 1,286 

1,266 1,299 

1,245 1,209 

1,340 1,432 

1,789 1,784 

AVERAGE FOR 

3,506 3,34i 

3,227 3,048 

2,899 2,666 

2,361 2,246 

2,273 2,266 

2,076 2,112 

2,098 2,198 

3,081 3,365 

3,885 4,034 

3,843 3,816 

3,259 3,238 

3,588 3,983 

6,722 6,605 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

566 

947 

753 

704 

531 

641 

914 

843 

834 

884 

1,138 

1,060 

1,248 

1,284 

1,177 

1,238 

1,133 

990 

945 

1,130 

962 

1,021 

1,558 

1,665 

1,558 

1,483 

2,085 

2,631 

PERIOD 

378 

649 

440 

339 

326 

395 

461 

494 

459 

537 

679 

710 

766 

790 

731 

890 

883 

863 

811 

877 

811 

865 

1,266 

1,283 

1,277 

1,278 

1,572 

1,712 

PERIOD 

3,460 

3,012 

2,474 

2,261 

2,384 

2,007 

2,200 

3,898 

4,056 

3,544 

3,292 

4,835 

6,477 

Annual 

564 

841 

854 

689 

559 

510 

997 

823 

832 

821 

1,242 

1,063 

1,080 

1,368 

1,175 

1,216 

1,195 

1,056 

921 

1,078 

985 

1,016 

1,347 

1,650 

1,610 

1,486 

1,748 

2,649 

409 

576 

513 

336 

345 

307 

501 

450 

478 

497 

678 

654 

712 

823 

721 

884 

872 

874 

837 

839 

838 

853 

1,105 

1,253 

1,302 

1,226 

1,410 

1,752 

3,505 

3,178 

2,791 

2,315 

2,293 

2,138 

2,142 

3,202 

3,949 

3,770 

3,292 

3,942 

6,439 

1977 1 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1*45... 

1*46... 

1947... 

1*48... 

1*49... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

19^5... 

1956... 

1*37... 

1958... 

1959... 

I960... 

1961... 

l*o2... 

1963... 

19b4... 

1965... 

1906... 

1967... 

1968... 

I9b9... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

4 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

I94ti... 

1949... 

1930... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

I960... 

1961... 

1962... 

19b3... 

1964... 

1965... 

196b... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

Iy70... 

1971... 

1972... 

1*73... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

4 

1945... 

1*46... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

195*... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

196b... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. 

448. NUMBER EMPLOYED, 

1,847 

1,923 

3,022 

2,511 

2,267 

3,087 

2,lbl 

2,298 

2,120 

2,108 

1,797 

2,048 

1,653 

1,721 

1,993 

2,540 

2,456 

2,003 

2,461 

3,614 

1,874 

2,086 

3,174 

2,314 

2,379 

3,27b 

2,296 

2,282 

2,232 

1,973 

1,637 

2,077 

1,819 

1,707 

1,902 

2,523 

2,323 

2,153 

2,627 

3,579 

1,678 

2,091 

3,440 

2,47 5 

2,197 

3,024 

2,414 

2,281 

2,16b 

1,994 

1,6 27 

2,039 

1,748 

1,810 

1,970 

2,498 

2,418 

2,145 

2,431 

3,725 

51. CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 

88.7 

86.5 

88.1 

88.0 

88.8 

88.3 

87.8 

87.4 

88.1 

87.0 

86.4 

86.2 

86.2 

86.1 

85.1 

84.3 

84.2 

84.1 

83.6 

83.7 

83.1 

82.9 

82.8 

82.3 

81.6 

81.1 

81.7 

80.5 

89.0 

88.5 

88.0 

88.4 

by.o 

88.6 

88.1 

87.2 

87.9 

87.2 

86.2 

86.0 

86.0 

85.8 

85.3 

84.3 

84.1 

b4.1 

83.5 

83.5 

83.1 

83.1 

82.8 

81.9 

81.5 

81.3 

81.6 

80.3 

88.2 

88.5 

88.0 

88.8 

88.6 

88.7 

87.7 

87.4 

87.9 

87.2 

86.2 

86.3 

85.6 

85.9 

85.3 

84.4 

84.0 

84.1 

83.6 

83.3 

83.0 

83.0 

82.8 

81.9 

81.8 

81.6 

81.3 

80.3 

5 2. CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE 

31.0 

31.7 

32.7 

33.7 

34.4 

34.6 

33.4 

34.5 

36.3 

36.2 

36.7 

37.0 

36.9 

38.1 

37.9 

38.0 

38.5 

39.0 

39.8 

40.7 

40.9 

42.0 

43.2 

43.6 

43.6 

43.5 

44.6 

45.8 

31.4 

32.1 

32.8 

33.6 

34.3 

34.2 

34.5 

34.4 

36.0 

36.7 

36.8 

36.7 

36.9 

38.4 

38.0 

38.2 

38.8 

39.2 

39.6 

40.5 

41.3 

42.4 

43.1 

43.3 

43.4 

43.9 

44.9 

45.5 

31.1 

31.9 

32.7 

34.3 

33.5 

34.5 

34.5 

34.3 

36.0 

36.5 

36.8 

37.0 

36.3 

38.5 

37.7 

38.2 

38.8 

39.2 

39.6 

40.4 

41.4 

42.4 

43.4 

43.2 

43.7 

44.1 

45.0 

45.8 

Apr. 

PART-TIME 

1,846 

2,034 

3,334 

2,310 

2,545 

2,994 

2,280 

2,296 

2,246 

1,927 

1,629 

2,104 

1,659 

1,686 

2,321 

2,462 

2,499 

2,115 

2,326 

3,750 

May June July Aug. Sept. 

WORKERS FOR ECONOMIC REASONS, LABGn FORC 

(THOUSANDS) 

1,80b 1,755 

1,992 2,088 

2,127 2,187 

3,306 3,019 

2,123 2,205 

2,413 2,577 

2,932 2,748 

2,403 2,290 

2,249 2,288 

2,205 2,173 

1,983 1,898 

1,706 1,737 

1,702 1,838 

1,714 1,826 

1,746 1,854 

2,233 2,14b 

2,474 2,211 

2,361 2,557 

2,181 2,509 

2,628 2,538 

3,676 3,479 

PARTICIPATION RATE, MALES 

H'Q'.I 

88.4 

88.2 

88.3 

88.5 

88.2 

88.2 

87.5 

87.8 

87.1 

86.6 

86.4 

86.1 

85.6 

84.7 

84.4 

84.5 

84.1 

83.7 

83.5 

83.1 

82.8 

82.9 

82.2 

81.6 

81.3 

80.9 

80.3 

(PERCENT) 

88.1 88.5 

88.4 88.4 

88.4 88.3 

88.4 86.4 

88.4 88.4 

88.0 88.0 

87.9 87.8 

87.4 87.2 

87.6 87.6 

87.0 87.3 

86.9 86.8 

86.2 86.1 

86.0 85.9 

85.9 85.8 

85.0 84.8 

84.3 84.3 

84.5 84.0 

84.3 83.8 

83.6 83.6 

83.4 83.5 

83.2 83.4 

82.7 82.7 

82.8 82.6 

82.3 82.0 

81.6 81.7 

81.2 81.3 

81.1 81.0 

80.7 60.3 

PARTICIPATION RATE, FEMAL 

32*.i 

31.9 

33.4 

33.8 

33.6 

34.0 

34.4 

35.1 

36.2 

36.2 

37.1 

37.1 

37.6 

37.9 

37.6 

38.4 

39.5 

39.2 

39.8 

40.8 

41.4 

42.6 

43.5 

43.2 

43.6 

44.2 

45.1 

46.0 

(PERCENT) 

31.3 32^5 

32.3 32.2 

33.0 33.8 

34.1 33.6 

34.0 33.8 

33.4 34.1 

34.3 34.1 

34.7 35.0 

36.7 36.4 

36.3 36.4 

37.0 37.0 

37.1 37.2 

37.7 37.9 

38.1 38.4 

37.6 37.5 

38.4 38.2 

39.3 39.0 

39.2 39.7 

40.0 39.9 

40.8 40.9 

42.0 41.9 

42.5 42.8 

43.0 43.2 

43.1 43.0 

43.7 43.6 

44.2 44.5 

45.1 45.3 

46.0 46.0 

1,912 

2,02b 

2,207 

2,771 

2,302 

2,552 

2,727 

2,369 

2,179 

2,0o2 

1,986 

1,723 

l,8b0 

1,727 

1,750 

2,271 

2,405 

2,493 

2,4b0 

2,567 

3,381 

1,881 

2,107 

2,133 

2,b08 

2,2b2 

2,558 

2,731 

2,28b 

2,419 

2,043 

l,9b3 

l,bb3 

1,765 

1,705 

1,875 

2,192 

2,415 

2,526 

2,419 

2,707 

3,344 

I,8b4 

2,138 

2,158 

2, 7 bo 

2,205 

2,7bb 

2,b47 

2,390 

2,381 

2,114 

1,776 

1,61b 

1,87b 

1,659 

1,907 

2,111 

2,341 

2,408 

2,403 

2,892 

3,320 

20 YEARS AND OVER, LABOR 

88.7 

88.2 

88.1 

8b.2 

88.3 

88.1 

87.7 

87.6 

87.5 

87.1 

87.0 

86.6 

85.9 

85.6 

84.4 

84.5 

84.3 

83.9 

83.4 

83.5 

83.3 

82.7 

82.6 

82.1 

81.8 

81.4 

80.8 

80.6 

88.8 

88.7 

88.5 

86.5 

88.0 

87.9 

88.2 

67.6 

67.5 

86.7 

87.1 

86.3 

86.0 

85.6 

84.9 

84.3 

84.1 

83.8 

83.5 

83.4 

83.2 

82.9 

82.5 

82.2 

81.6 

81.1 

80.9 

80.4 

ES 20 YEARS AND 

32.7 

32.9 

33.2 

34.5 

33.7 

34.1 

33.8 

35.5 

36.6 

36.9 

37.0 

37.1 

37.9 

38.0 

37.6 

38.3 

38.7 

39.7 

40.0 

41.0 

41.7 

42.7 

43.5 

42.9 

43.6 

44.5 

45.8 

46.0 

32.0 

32.7 

33.6 

33.9 

33.9 

33.7 

33.9 

36.0 

36.6 

36.4 

37.2 

36.9 

37.9 

37.7 

38.1 

38.1 

38.9 

39.6 

40.3 

41.1 

41.3 

42.7 

43.3 

43.2 

43.8 

44.4 

45.4 

46.1 

88.b 

68.6 

88.4 

68.2 

68.0 

87.6 

86.4 

87.6 

87.3 

86.9 

87.1 

86.5 

86.2 

85.5 

84.8 

84.4 

84.2 

83.6 

83.5 

83.2 

83.0 

82.9 

82.5 

82.1 

81.6 

81.1 

80.9 

80.4 

3VER, LAB 

32*3 

32.5 

33.1 

33.8 

34.9 

33.7 

34.5 

35.9 

36.8 

36.5 

36.8 

36.9 

38.1 

37.5 

38.3 

38.4 

38.6 

39.3 

40.6 

41.4 

41.6 

42.8 

43.0 

43.4 

43.7 

44.6 

45.5 

46.1 

Oct. 

E SURVEY 

l,6Jb 

2,03b 

2,249 

2,64b 

2,423 

2,737 

2,bb3 

2,39J 

2,330 

2,119 

l,6b9 

1,5*2 

1,840 

1,658 

1,6*7 

2,3b8 

2,484 

2,29b 

2,3*7 

2,*48 

3,352 

FORCE S 

88.8 

8*.5 

68.2 

88.b 

87.b 

87.6 

86.0 

67.b 

87.2 

8b.b 

87.0 

86.4 

86.1 

6b.5 

8 4. b 

84.2 

84.2 

63.6 

83.4 

83.4 

82.9 

82.8 

82.5 

81.9 

81.6 

81.2 

81.0 

80.2 

OR FORCE 

31 ".7 

32.7 

33.6 

34.2 

34.2 

34.0 

34.4 

36.0 

36.6 

36.6 

36.8 

37.3 

37.6 

37.9 

37.9 

38.6 

38.8 

39.4 

40.6 

41.7 

41.6 

42.9 

43.4 

43.5 

43.7 

44.5 

45.2 

46.2 

Nov. 

1,672 

2,018 

2,378 

2,414 

2,4b* 

2,6b4 

2,34* 

2,463 

2,277 

2,02b 

l,6b4 

l,bob 

2,034 

1,742 

1,85b 

2,3o7 

2,bob 

2,23o 

2,412 

3,208 

3,322 

URVEY 

88.7 

66.7 

68.2 

66.4 

67 ,b 

63.0 

87.6 

67.7 

67.3 

8b.b 

8b.b 

86.3 

8b.3 

8b.b 

84.6 

64.3 

84.0 

83.b 

83.b 

83.3 

82.9 

82.b 

82.b 

81.9 

81.4 

81.3 

80.9 

80.0 

SURVEY 

3*.*8 

32.9 

33.7 

34.1 

34.8 

33.6 

34.4 

36.0 

36.4 

36.6 

36.6 

37.0 

38.2 

37.6 

37.8 

38.7 

38.7 

39.5 

40.9 

41.6 

41.9 

42.8 

43.4 

43.8 

43.6 

44.9 

45.4 

46.1 

Dec. 

1,864 

2,00* 

2,bUl 

2,D1 4 

2,<*b2 

2,*bo 

2,403 

2,322 

2,2oo 

2,143 

l,7ol 

1,607 

1,632 

l,b*7 

1,609 

2,b42 

2,3** 

2,174 

2,bbb 

3,330 

3,2*0 

6*.0 

8 6.7 

66.2 

8o.7 

86.b 

67.6 

67.3 

6 7.6 

67.3 

8b.b 

6b.3 

ob.b 

6o.3 

85.3 

64.4 

84.2 

83.9 

63.6 

83.6 

83.4 

83.1 

o2.b 

82.b 

81.9 

81.b 

81.4 

80.7 

7*.7 

32*1 

32.7 

33.3 

34.b 

34.2 

33.2 

34.0 

36.4 

36.4 

36.9 

36.7 

37.2 

38.2 

37.b 

37.8 

38.5 

38.9 

39.6 

40.8 

41.8 

41.9 

42.9 

43.4 

43.8 

43.7 

44.8 

45.5 

46.2 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

l,bOo 

2,033 

3,2i2 

2,433 

2,26o 

3,lJ0 

2,2*u 

2,26/ 

2,173 

2,u2b 

1,08 7 

2,ub3 

1,740 

1,74b 

l,*b3 

2,320 

2,3** 

2,100 

2,aub 

3,b3* 

60.b 

bo.3 

66.0 

66.4 

66.6 

6b.3 

67.* 

6 7. J 

66.0 

67.1 

6o.3 

6b.2 

85.9 

b3.* 

85.2 

64.3 

84.1 

64.1 

63.6 

63.3 

83.1 

83.0 

82.6 

82.0 

8 1. b 

61.3 

81.5 

60.4 

... 

31.2 

31.9 

32.7 

33.9 

34.1 

34.4 

34.1 

34.4 

36.1 

3b.5 

36.8 

36.9 

36.7 

38.3 

37.9 

38.1 

38.7 

39.1 

39.7 

40.5 

41.2 

42.3 

43.2 

43.4 

43.6 

43.8 

44.8 

45.7 

II Q III Q IV Q 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

1,975 

^,116 

3,220 

2,213 

2,512 

2,6*1 

2,324 

2,278 

2,206 

l,93o 

l,o91 

1,881 

1,733 

l,7o2 

2,233 

2,J62 

2,472 

2,2o8 

2,4*7 

3,o3b 

1,866 

2 , u 9 0 

2,l6o 

2,778 

2,263 

2,b22 

2,702 

2,34* 

2,32b 

2,073 

1,908 

l,b34 

l,o30 

l,b97 

1,844 

2,1*1 

2,387 

2,476 

2,427 

2,722 

3,346 

1,664 

2,021 

2,37b 

2,525 

2,451 

2,654 

2,5Uo 

2,402 

2,26* 

2,0*6 

1,835 

1,655 

1,9U2 

1,699 

1,874 

2,422 

2,483 

2,233 

2,4bb 

3,162 

3,321 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

86.3 

86.4 

08.3 

66.4 

68.4 

66.1 

o6.0 

67.4 

87.7 

87.1 

8b.6 

6b.2 

86.0 

8b.8 

64.6 

64.3 

84.3 

64.1 

83.6 

83.b 

83.2 

82.7 

82.8 

82.2 

81.b 

81.3 

61.0 

60.4 

86.7 

88.3 

88.3 

6 7.0 

68.1 

87.* 

88.1 

8 7.b 

67.4 

86.9 

87.1 

66.5 

86.0 

85.b 

84.7 

84.4 

84.2 

b3.8 

83.5 

83.4 

83.2 

82.8 

82.5 

82.1 

81.7 

bl.2 

80.9 

80.5 

AVERAGE FOR 

32.0 

32.1 

33.4 

33.8 

33.8 

33.8 

34.3 

34.9 

36.4 

36.3 

37.0 

37.1 

37.7 

38.1 

37.6 

38.3 

39.3 

39.4 

39.9 

40.8 

41.8 

42.6 

43.2 

43.1 

43.6 

44.3 

45.2 

46.0 

32.3 

32.7 

33.3 

34.1 

34.2 

33.8 

34.1 

35.6 

36.7 

36.6 

37.0 

37.0 

38.0 

37.7 

38.0 

38.3 

38.7 

39.5 

40.3 

41.2 

41.5 

42.7 

43.3 

43.2 

43.7 

44.5 

45.6 

46.1 

o8.6 

oy.o 

66.2 

68.0 

67.9 

87.6 

d 7. b 

b/.7 

87.3 

86.6 

66.6 

86.4 

66.2 

8b.4 

84.5 

84.2 

84.0 

83.6 

83.5 

83.4 

83.0 

82.6 

82.5 

81.9 

81.5 

81.3 

80.9 

80.0 

PERIOD 

31.9 

32.8 

33.5 

34.3 

34.4 

33.6 

34.3 

36.1 

36.5 

36.7 

36.7 

37.2 

38.0 

37.7 

37.8 

38.6 

38.8 

39.5 

40.8 

41.7 

41.8 

42.9 

43.4 

43.7 

43.7 

44.7 

45.4 

46.2 

Annual 

1,839 

l,*o7 

2,1b* 

2,953 

2,33b 

2,5b0 

2,813 

2,337 

2,2*1 

2,137 

1,928 

l,bo4 

1,913 

1,715 

l,8lo 

2,196 

2,440 

2,408 

2,311 

2,70* 

3,4*0 

68.b 

86.6 

66.2 

86.2 

88.3 

88.1 

87.9 

87.5 

87.b 

86.9 

86.7 

86.3 

86.0 

85.7 

84.8 

84.3 

84.2 

83.9 

83.5 

83.4 

83.1 

82.8 

82.6 

82.1 

81.6 

81.3 

81.0 

80.3 

31*. 8 

32.4 

33.2 

34.0 

34.1 

1 33.9 

34.2 

35.3 

36.4 

36.5 

36.9 

37.0 

37.6 

38.0 

37.8 

36.3 

38.9 

39.4 

40.2 

41.1 

41.6 

42.7 

43.3 

43.3 

43.6 

44.4 

45.2 

46.0 

The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Monthly 

Jan. 

453. CIVILIAN 

194b... 

lb»46.. . 

iy47... 

194b. . . 

1949... 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952. . . 

1953. . . 

1954. . . 

1955. . . 

195o. . . 

1*57.. . 

195b. . . 

1959. . . 

19bU. . . 

19bl.. . 

lyb2.. . 

19o3. . . 

1964. . . 

19O5.. . 

19&b. . . 

19 b 7 . . . 

19fafa. . . 

1969... 

197U. .. 

1971. .. 

1972. . . 

1973... 

1974. . . 

1975. . . 

197b... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

194b. . . 

194y. . . 

195U. . . 

1951... 

1952... 

1953. . . 

19 54. . . 

1955... 

195b... 

1957... 

1958. . . 

1959. . . 

I960. .. 

1961... 

19t>2... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967. .. 

196b... 

1969... 

197U... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946.. . 

1947. . . 

1948. .. 

1949... 

1950. . . 

1951... 

1952. .. 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958.. . 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

19b2... 

1963... 

1964... 

19b5... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968.. . 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

53.2 

5 2. 8 

51.9 

51.4 

52.2 

52.4 

50.9 

46.8 

51.4 

49.5 

47.4 

4 7.5 

4 7.2 

47.4 

45.6 

45.4 

44.4 

43.0 

4a.0 

48.3 

46.6 

47.7 

50.5 

49.9 

51.2 

50.9 

55.5 

54.9 

Feb 

LA30R 

53'.7 

53.7 

51.7 

51.0 

51.8 

54.0 

51.4 

45.4 

50.5 

49.8 

48.0 

46.7 

47.4 

4b.7 

45.9 

45.1 

45.3 

43.7 

4b.7 

48.2 

48. b 

47.fa 

50.3 

49.7 

51.3 

53.0 

55.5 

54.0 

51b. DEFENSE 

2,120 

2,442 

3,376 

3,325 

3,720 

3,538 

3,234 

3,641 

4,434 

4,632 

4,351 

4,278 

5,100 

6,518 

7,033 

7,578 

6,586 

6,647 

7,361 

6,840 

7,527 

7,609 

2,951 

2,812 

3,00S 

3,59< 

3,33^ 

3,60] 

3,43S 

4,06E 

4,08( 

4,13' 

5,31' 

3,83< 

5,17< 

6,59 

7,61 

7,05( 

6,34( 

6,64 

7,27 

7,33 

7,34 

7,50 

525. MI 

3,976 

2,528 

3,682 

616 

1,049 

1,474 

1,756 

2,103 

1,625 

1,850 

1,989 

3,271 

2,429 

2,372 

2,097 

2,952 

3,364 

2,887 

3,398 

2,855 

2,508 

3,520 

2,824 

3,378 

3,693 

3,49 

5,47 

2,29 

56 

1,30 

1,38 

1,92 

1,23 

1,89 

1,75 

2,18 

2,18 

2,61 

2,95 

1,84 

2,90 

3,93 

3,44 

3,44 

2,62 

2,70 

2,98 

2,89 

3,14 

3,98 

Mar. Apr. 

FORCE PARTICIPATION 

54 11 

54.5 ! 

50.2 

53.3 

50.9 

53.1 

51.7 

46.3 

50.0 

50.6 

47.5 

46.7 

46.7 

47.6 

46.8 

44.8 

45.0 

44.1 

46.9 

47.5 

48.2 

48.3 

50.2 

48.9 

51.8 

53.7 

55.3 

54.1 

DEPARTMENT 

1,899 

2,613 

4,248 

3,254 

4,091 

3,739 

3,368 

3,537 

> 4,421 

4,233 

4,133 

4,624 

) 5,879 

> 6,343 

> 6,208 

) 6,543 

) 6,634 

5 6,718 

L 7,111 

1 7,361 

i 7,186 

i 8,223 

.ITARY PRIM 

3 3,001 

9 2,959 

5 2,381 

4 826 

5 1,028 

3 1,502 

7 1,563 

2 2,243 

3 1,966 

i 1,904 

S 1,987 

3 2,552 

1 2,463 

B 1,966 

6 2,451 

6 2,956 

0 3,034 

5 3,124 

1 2,904 

3 2,904 

4 3,104 

2 3,025 

9 2,947 

1 2,677 

7 2,817 

54.2 

53.0 

50.8 

50.9 

50.7 

51.8 

50.1 

47.3 

49.4 

49.5 

48.1 

47.7 

48.5 

46.0 

46.5 

45.3 

44.0 

45.3 

47.4 

47.6 

47.9 

48.7 

49.8 

49.5 

51.8 

53.9 

54.1 

53.7 

May June July 

RATE, BOTH SEXES, 16-19 

(PERCENT) 

50.9 

53.4 

50.9 

52.6 

52.3 

49.5 

48.6 

47.6 

52.1 

49.4 

48.9 

46.2 

48.1 

45.8 

47.4 

46.2 

44.8 

45.6 

46.9 

47.2 

48.2 

47.5 

49.7 

49.3 

51.6 

53.4 

54.6 

54.9 

53.8 

49.8 

50.4 

51.3 

52.8 

5'J.9 

46.3 

46.7 

52.5 

50.2 

46.5 

46.0 

49.7 

47.8 

47.8 

44.6 

44.4 

44.0 

48.5 

48.8 

49.3 

49.6 

49.0 

48.0 

52.0 

54.4 

55.3 

54.4 

52.6 

50.3 

50.8 

52.6 

51.2 

49.5 

47.1 

48.4 

51.7 

50.2 

46.8 

46.3 

47.3 

47.1 

46.5 

45.0 

44.0 

46.3 

49.1 

49.0 

49.1 

50.0 

49.5 

50.7 

51.4 

52.7 

54.3 

54.2 

Aug 

YEARS 

5il5 

51.9 

52.0 

53.0 

50.0 

49.6 

48.0 

49.6 

50.6 

48.4 

47.1 

46.6 

46.9 

48.C 

46.4 

44.£ 

44.2 

45.5 

49.] 

49.5 

49.1 

50.C 

49. S 

50.6 

52.t 

52.£ 

53.6 

54.2 

Sept. Oct. 

OF AGE, LABOR FORCE 

5l!5 

53.1 

52.5 

52.7 

50.5 

49.1 

48.5 

50.5 

50.3 

49.3 

47.9 

46.9 

47.4 

46.4 

45.8 

45.7 

45.5 

46.5 

47.5 

48.3 

47.9 

5U.5" 

50.6 

49.3 

51.7 

54.6 

55.9 

54.0 

50.6 

52.5 

53.5 

52.4 

50.2 

48.2 

47.3 

51.1 

49.7 

49.3 

47.9 

46.6 

47.3 

46.4 

45.3 

45.8 

44.1 

47.8 

48.2 

48.7 

48.0 

50.9 

50.2 

49.6 

52.0 

55.0 

55.6 

53.5 

Nov. 

SURVEY 

51.0 

52.9 

52.6 

51.9 

51.4 

48.9 

46.3 

52.7 

50.4 

49.4 

46.8 

46.3 

47.4 

47.4 

44.9 

44.8 

44.1 

47.1 

49.1 

48.3 

47.7 

50.9 

50.1 

50.5 

52.4 

55.3 

55.1 

53.2 

C OBLIGATIONS INCURRED, TOTAL, EXCLUDING MILITARY ASSISTANCE 

(MILLIONS 0 

2,5&8 

3,180 

3,515 

3,543 

4,078 

3,620 

3,362 

3,381 

4,477 

4,078 

4,544 

4,593 

6,444 

6,211 

6,765 

6,520 

6,658 

6,977 

6,892 

6,739 

7,883 

7,952 

2,837 

2,449 

3,240 

3,020 

4,251 

3,569 

3,677 

3,727 

3,999 

4,507 

4,818 

4,630 

5,447 

7,732 

7,441 

6,319 

6,588 

6,646 

6,946 

7,269 

7,302 

8,235 

Z CONTRACT AWARDS 

F DOLLAR 

2,874 

2,366 

4,179 

2,745 

4,279 

3,863 

3,771 

3,893 

4,082 

4,481 

4,349 

4,520 

7,084 

6,891 

6,929 

6,144 

6,829 

6,211 

7,097 

7,069 

7,663 

8,450 

TO U.S. 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLAR 

2,892 

2,088 

2,462 

1,068 

1,468 

1,404 

2,312 

2,142 

2,204 

1,726 

2,274 

2,295 

2,023 

2,502 

2,843 

3,461 

3,026 

3,488 

2,825 

2,591 

2,928 

2,985 

2,568 

4,343 

4,122 

3,760 

3,059 

2,038 

1,326 

841 

1,782 

808 

3,043 

1,893 

2,252 

1,855 

2,140 

2,413 

2,640 

2,150 

2,978 

4,040 

4,203 

3,070 

2,545 

2,231 

2,786 

3,171 

2,881 

3,926 

2,759 

4,292 

2,042 

1,116 

1,287 

2,024 

1,093 

2,228 

2,222 

1,963 

2,229 

2,127 

2,366 

1,910 

2,390 

3,693 

3,^66 

3,067 

2,744 

2,896 

2,324 

3,154 

2,897 

3,440 

3,773 

3) 

2,689 

2,945 

2,379 

3,447 

3,017 

3,818 

3,729 

5,305 

3,784 

4,517 

4,349 

4,677 

4,258 

4,998 

5,928 

7,544 

6,906 

6,728 

7,570 

7,063 

7,203 

8,177 

8,718 

2,57' 

2,60: 

1,14 

4,58{ 

2,91c 

3,35 

3,26 

3,82^ 

5,34 

4,38 

4,58 

4,23 

5,22 

7,21 

7,00 

7,65 

6,47 

6,02 

6,46 

7,47 

7,03 

8,19 

9,07 

BUSINESS FIRMS 

S) 

4,097 

1,158 

2,035 

886 

971 

1,196 

1,619 

1,511 

2,192 

2,151 

1,993 

1,888 

2,216 

2,580 

2,313 

3,940 

3,545 

3,937 

2,896 

2,717 

2,916 

3,074 

2,106 

3,494 

3,842 

4,24 

1,00 

1,08 

76 

1,23 

2,10 

1,31 

1,69 

1,96 

2,20 

2,14 

2,16 

2,72 

1,96 

2,77 

3,16 

3,69 

3,17 

3,00 

2,78 

3,09 

2,63 

3,27 

4,15 

5,07 

) 2,150 

I 3,37 8 

> 3,522 

I 3,35 8 

> 3,184 

> 3,541 

J 3,906 

\ 3,999 

\ 4,874 

> 3,892 

J 4,160 

7 4,405 

i 5,276 

3 6,579 

3 7,479 

) 7,989 

2 6,394 

) 6,804 

? 6,050 

J 6,801 

) 6,260 

J 7,781 

7 7,791 

5 AND INSTI 

i. 2,333 

2 2,116 

5 1,004 

7 2,454 

1 597 

8 2,091 

3 1,297 

2 2,308 

4 1,793 

J 2,250 

3 2,033 

7 2,032 

2 2,635 

3 2,163 

5 2,419 

5 3,541 

0 3,720 

3 3,836 

1 2,680 

2 2,113 

3 2,982 

8 2,725 

6 3,222 

3 3,502 

2 3,080 

2,247 

3,701 

2,376 

3,145 

2,855 

4,596 

3,802 

3,357 

4,296 

4,535 

5,112 

3,773 

4,962 

6,059 

7,449 

7,520 

7,041 

6,281 

7,142 

6,925 

7,671 

7,603 

8,623 

TUTIONS 

2,823 

2,143 

959 

2,271 

1,136 

1,972 

1 1,594 

1,880 

j 1,937 

1,327 

2,494 

2,814 

2,119 

1,967 

2,790 

3,383 

3,626 

3,903 

2,987 

3,464 

2,606 

2,946 

3,176 

4,161 

2,961 

2,298 

2,817 

2,591 

3,430 

3,499 

3,481 

3,608 

4,109 

4,121 

4,920 

4,093 

4,228 

4,896 

5,989 

6,565 

7,286 

6,833 

6,917 

6,600 

7,082 

7,443 

8,138 

7,533 

3,462 

3,295 

265 

481 

1,310 

1,934 

1,819 

1,704 

2,102 

1,938 

2,308 

2,946 

1,814 

2,075 

2,995 

3,225 

3,308 

3,378 

2,734 

2,746 

3,092 

3,589 

3,515 

3,777 

2,872 

Dec. 

53.1 

52.b 

52.5 

52.9 

51.1 

49.2 

44.6 

53.4 

50.3 

49.3 

47.1 

47.4 

46.5 

45.6 

44.8 

43.9 

44.3 

48.1 

49.3 

48.3 

47.8 

50.4 

50.0 

50.6 

52.9 

55.2 

54.5 

53.9 

1,180 

3,014 

3,254 

3,349 

3,406 

3,816 

3,160 

3,583 

4,653 

4,140 

4,371 

5,325 

5,669 

6,023 

6,331 

6,834 

6,811 

7,070 

7,798 

6,685 

6,794 

8,228 

8,135 

3,399 

3,148 

390 

913 

2,194 

1,891 

1,671 

2,328 

1,298 

1,922 

2,491 

2,044 

2,149 

1,997 

2,988 

3,513 

3,479 

3,613 

2,765 

3,181 

3,066 

2,532 

2,850 

2,532 

3,130 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

5317 

53.7 

51.3 

51.9 

51.6 

53.2 

51.3 

46.2 

50.6 

50.0 

47.6 

47.0 

47.1 

47.2 

46.1 

45.1 

44.9 

43.6 

47.2 

48.0 

47.8 

47.9 

50.3 

49.5 

51.4 

52.5 

55.4 

54.3 

6,971 

7,867 

10,633 

10,173 

11,145 

10,878 

10,041 

11,243 

12,941 

13,002 

13,801 

12,741 

16,158 

19,456 

20,856 

21,171 

19,560 

20,008 

21,743 

21,538 

22,061 

23,340 

10,470 

10,966 

8,358 

2,006 

3,383 

4,364 

5,246 

5,578 

5,489 

5,508 

6,162 

8,003 

7,503 

7,296 

6,394 

8,814 

10,328 

9,456 

9,743 

8,382 

8,316 

9,527 

8,670 

9,196 

L ^ l 

II Q III Q IVQ 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

53.0 

52.1 

50.7 

51.6 

51.9 

50.7 

48.3 

47.2 

51.3 

49.7 

47.8 

46.6 

48.8 

46.5 

47.2 

45.4 

44.4 

45.0 

47.6 

47.9 

48.5 

48.6 

49.5 

48.9 

51.8 

53.9 

54.7 

54.3 

51.9 

51.8 

51.8 

52.8 

50.6 

49.4 

47.9 

49.5 

50.9 

49.3 

47.3 

46.6 

47.2 

47.2 

46.2 

45.2 

44.6 

46.1 

48.6 

48.9 

48.7 

50.2 

50.0 

50.2 

52.0 

53.4 

54.6 

54.1 

51.6 

52.7 

52.9 

52.4 

50.9 

48.8 

46.1 

52.4 

50.1 

49.3 

47.3 

46.8 

47.1 

46.5 

45.0 

44.8 

44.2 

47.7 

48.9 

48.4 

47.8 

50.7 

50.1 

50.2 

52.4 

55.2 

55.1 

53.5 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

8,279 

7,995 

10,934 

9,308 

12,608 

11,052 

10,810 

11,001 

12,558 

13,066 

13,711 

13,743 

18,975 

20,834 

21,135 

18,983 

20,075 

19,834 

20,935 

21,077 

22,848 

24,637 

7,418 

8,925 

7,046 

11,393 

9,116 

10,714 

10,898 

13,128 

14,002 

12,794 

13,089 

13,319 

14,757 

18,792 

20,410 

23,192 

19,772 

19,561 

20,089 

21,334 

20,502 

24,157 

25,586 

5,725 

9,532 

8,221 

9,924 

9,760 

11,893 

10,570 

11,049 

13,070 

13,595 

13,576 

13,326 

15,527 

18,071 

20,345 

21,640 

20,685 

20,268 

21,540 

20,692 

21,908 

23,969 

24,291 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

9,411 

9,439 

6,542 

3,510 

3,596 

5,210 

4,213 

7,413 

6,319 

5,941 

6,358 

6,562 

6,802 

7,052 

7,383 

10,132 

10,632 

10,758 

8,639 

8,032 

7,483 

8,925 

8,636 

10,664 

11,821 

10,671 

4,276 

4,128 

4,107 

2,799 

5,395 

4,226 

5,511 

5,949 

6,601 

6,169 

6,087 

7,573 

6,706 

7,507 

10,646 

10,955 

10,946 

8,577 

7,612 

8,991 

8,437 

8,604 

11,149 

11,994 

9,684 

8,586 

1,614 

3,665 

4,640 

5,797 

5,084 

5,912 

5,337 

5,187 

7,293 

7,804 

6,082 

6,039 

8,773 

10,121 

10,413 

10,894 

8,486 

9,391 

8,764 

9,067 

9,541 

10,470 

8,963 

Annual 

52.5 

52.5 

51.6 

52.2 

51.3 

50.5 

48.4 

48.8 

50.7 

49.6 

47.5 

46.7 

47.5 

46.8 

46.1 

45.1 

44.5 

45.6 

48.1 

48.4 

48.3 

49.4 

49.9 

49.7 

52.0 

53.7 

54.9 

54.1 

33,707 

31,129 

42,884 

38,357 

46,360 

43,398 

45,028 

49,316 

51,888 

52,733 

54,157 

56,768 

71,996 

81,045 

86,823 

80,611 

79,464 

81,471 

84,704 

85,025 

93,035 

97,854 

40,236 

33,267 

20,642 

13,288 

14,418 

20,766 

18,769 

24,414 

23,094 

23,237 

25,982 

28,456 

27,960 

27,093 

30,057 

39,713 

42,328 

42,054 

35,445 

33,417 

33,554 

35,956 

35,451 

41,479 

1 43,275 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

195U... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

2.09 

0.85 

1.86 

1.84 

1.85 

2.33 

1.40 

1,110 

1,190 

795 

970 

1,250 

1,041 

962 

1,168 

1,289 

1,653 

1,423 

1,314 

1,534 

1,622 

1,667 

987 

2,052 

1,228 

2,298 

2,639 

2,814 

2,161 

3,406 

3,601 

4,074 

4,955 

7,150 

9,374 

228 

547 

569 

579 

186 

541 

680 

766 

1,111 

1,774 

I 2,369 

Feb. Mar. 

548. VALUE 

2.10 

1.93 

1.69 

1.73 

1.52 

1.36 

2.44 

2.58 

2.06 

2.31 

1.74 

1.25 

1.25 

2.00 

1.34 

2.00 

602. EXPOF 

1,102 

1,072 

792 

1,022 

1,236 

971 

1,047 

1,198 

1,290 

1,577 

1,322 

1,256 

1,554 

1,708 

1,819 

2,143 

2,076 

1,623 

2,353 

2,582 

2,775 

2,266 

3,546 

3,694 

3,824 

5,070 

7,549 

8,756 

349 

554 

542 

573 

246 

569 

633 

703 

1,142 

1,829 

1,830 

1,049 

1,095 

772 

1,080 

1,281 

1,001 

862 

1,159 

1,348 

1,881 

1,385 

1,326 

1,541 

1,755 

1,664 

1,954 

2,067 

2,739 

2,530 

2,524 

2,439 

3,188 

3,375 

3,790 

3,868 

5,311 

7,625 

8,681 

60 

662 

594 

526 

518 

490 

533 

658 

606 

1,268 

1,869 

1,703 

Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 

OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DEFENSE PRODUCTS 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

2*.24 2^5 2!73 

2.59 2.09 1.56 

1.25 1.70 1.68 

1.39 1.19 0.83 

1.65 1.23 2.45 

1.98 1.63 2.10 

1.88 2.50 1.97 

2.44 2.27 1.80 

1.36 

1.33 

1.93 

1.91 

1.03 

1.68 

1.43 

2.37 

2.70 

1.75 

1.48 

1.47 

1.06 

1.80 

3.82 

2.13 

2.88 

1.51 

1.95 

1.31 

1.87 

1.76 

2.39 

2.56 

TS, EXCLUDING MILITARY AID SHIPMENTS, TOTAL 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1,023 1,062 989 

1,085 1,046 1,078 

786 772 831 

1,256 1,133 1,132 

1,138 1,129 1,063 

1,024 1,008 998 

1,196 1,087 1,091 

1,113 1,132 1,170 

1,394 1,413 1,442 

1,739 1,560 1,674 

1,364 1,379 1,337 

1,305 1,320 1,357 

1,627 1,644 1,643 

1,637 1,578 1,621 

1,804 1,764 1,877 

1,927 1,899 1,837 

2,081 2,076 2,080 

2,406 2,299 2,235 

2,316 2,416 2,484 

2,608 2,549 2,582 

2,855 2,740 2,870 

3,318 3,268 3,179 

3,410 3,661 3,727 

3,631 3,746 3,672 

3,820 3,882 3,971 

5,494 5,561 5,728 

8,108 7,652 8,317 

8,649 8,222 8,716 

1,069 

976 

821 

1,234 

970 

1,011 

1,076 

1,223 

1,412 

1,617 

1,361 

1,397 

1,711 

1,698 

1,750 

1,839 

2,118 

2,300 

2,469 

2,601 

2,858 

3,182 

3,704 

3,573 

4,074 

5,865 

8,307 

8,871 

1,125 

977 

813 

1,233 

1,012 

1,026 

1,067 

1,215 

1,454 

1,617 

1,365 

1,432 

1,660 

1,695 

1,709 

•1,912 

2,095 

2,329 

2,460 

2,566 

2,950 

3,366 

3,591 

3,666 

4,196 

6,042 

8,379 

8,980 

4. EXPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

550 538 550 

550 552 572 

526 542 539 

528 491 475 

609 576 526 

565 566 612 

636 623 624 

628 722 771 

1,251 1,412 1,442 

1,978 1,882 1,806 

1,723 1,575 1,480 

595 

531 

512 

503 

541 

614 

632 

754 

1,370 

1,842 

1,735 

500 

624 

513 

544 

494 

610 

636 

796 

1,731 

1,698 

1,872 

950 

908 

889 

1,233 

1,028 

1,154 

1,056 

1,235 

1,586 

1,605 

1,354 

1,528 

1,661 

1,669 

1,898 

1,964 

2,237 

2,291 

2,502 

2,597 

3,211 

3,341 

3,553 

4,487 

4,176 

6,420 

8,399 

9,104 

515 

601 

523 

509 

518 

639 

866 

837 

1,726 

1,654 

1,932 

Oct. 

2.50 

1.93 

1.65 

1.74 

1.16 

1.86 

1.58 

1.61 

1,055 

906 

893 

1,101 

1,004 

951 

1,111 

1,260 

1,509 

1,546 

1,349 

1,328 

1,685 

1,809 

1,542 

1,943 

2,150 

2,349 

2,616 

2,415 

2,631 

3,342 

3,688 

2,669 

4,316 

6,585 

8,673 

9,226 

562 

595 

507 

441 

612 

694 

447 

882 

1,706 

1,691 

2,060 

Nov. 

U 96 

2.20 

1.40 

1.75 

1.42 

2.28 

2.44 

2.10 

855 

868 

940 

1,273 

1,026 

1,035 

1,147 

1,215 

1,360 

1,534 

1,401 

1,376 

1,673 

1,738 

1,717 

1,946 

2,183 

2,378 

2,491 

2,671 

2,972 

3,398 

3,499 

3,196 

4,473 

6,879 

8,973 

9,409 

541 

580 

560 

516 

565 

628 

546 

927 

1,769 

1,978 

1,821 

Dec. 

2.23 

2.54 

1.64 

1.39 

1.91 

1.59 

2.02 

1.94 

1,188 

858 

915 

1,309 

1,016 

1,073 

1,130 

1,226 

1,836 

1,493 

1,339 

1,493 

1,631 

1,700 

1,811 

2,059 

2,394 

2,362 

2,467 

2,677 

2,977 

3,280 

3,569 

3,881 

4,558 

6,949 

8,862 

9,250 

591 

580 

522 

569 

551 

689 

768 

1,007 

1,785 

1,922 

1,776 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

6'.33 

4.28 

4.84 

4.61 

5.21 

6.11 

5.98 

3,261 

3,357 

2,359 

3,072 

3,767 

3,013 

2,871 

3,525 

3,927 

5,111 

4,130 

3,896 

4,629 

5,085 

5,150 

5,084 

6,195 

5,590 

7,181 

7,745 

8,028 

7,615 

10,327 

11,085 

11,766 

15,336 

22,324 

26,811 

1,239 

1,695 

1,637 

1,670 

922 

1,643 

1,971 

2,075 

3,521 

5,472 

5,902 

II Q III Q IV Q 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

7.62 6^4 

6.24 4.59 

4.63 5.36 

3.41 4.69 

5.33 3.96 

5.71 5.24 

6.35 7.64 

6.51 7.06 

6.69 

6.67 

4.69 

4.88 

4.49 

5.73 

6.04 

5.65 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

3,074 3,144 

3,209 2,861 

2,389 2,523 

3,521 3,700 

3,330 3,010 

3,030 3,191 

3,374 3,199 

3,415 3,673 

4,249 4,452 

4,973 4,839 

4,080 4,080 

3,982 4,357 

4,914 5,032 

4,836 5,062 

5,445 5,357 

5,663 5,715 

6,237 6,450 

6,940 6,920 

7,216 7,431 

7,739 7,764 

8,465 9,019 

9,765 9,889 

10,798 10,848 

11,049 11,726 

11,673 12,446 

16,783 18,327 

24,077 25,085 

25,587 26,955 

3,098 

2,632 

2,748 

3,683 

3,046 

3,059 

3,388 

3,701 

4,705 

4,573 

4,089 

4,197 

4,989 

5,247 

5,070 

5,948 

6,727 

7,089 

7,574 

7,763 

8,580 

10,020 

10,756 

9,746 

13,347 

20,413 

26,508 

27,885 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

1,638 1,610 

1,674 1,756 

1,607 1,548 

1,494 1,556 

1,711 1,553 

1,743 1,863 

1,883 2,134 

2,121 2,387 

4,105 4,827 

5,666 5,194 

4,778 5,539 

1,694 

1,755 

1,589 

1,526 

1,728 

2,011 

1,761 

2,816 

5,260 

5,591 

5,657 

Annual 

23!83 

18.96 

17.82 

18.39 

21.89 

26.14 

25.20 

12,653 

12,051 

9,993 

13,968 

13,203 

12,262 

12,854 

14,291 

17,333 

19,495 

16,367 

16,407 

19,626 

20,190 

20,973 

22,427 

25,690 

26,691 

29,379 

30,934 

34,063 

37,332 

42,659 

43,549 

49,199 

70,823 

97,908 

107,191 

3,960 

3,473 

3,578 

2,873 

4,040 

3,431 

2,848 

3,054 

3,198 

1 4,170 

4,506 

3,855 

3,955 

4,832 

5,024 

5,034 

5,584 

6,348 

6,229 

6,874 

6,380 

6,227 

5,936 

7,247 

7,698 

9,407 

17,681 

21,999 

21,889 

122 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Monthly 

Year 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 

Quarterly 

I Q II Q III Q IV Q 

606. EXPORTS OF NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

230 

435 

521 

523 

408 

626 

732 

775 

880 

1,155 

1,672 

322 

439 

502 

530 

437 

678 

691 

780 

911 

1,197 

1,632 

480 

470 

490 

438 

622 

647 

724 

773 

925 

1,270 

1,626 

456 

433 

494 

539 

647 

651 

720 

757 

926 

1,288 

1,760 

432 

448 

508 

519 

622 

680 

680 

767 

975 

1,338 

1,720 

435 

468 

498 

515 

594 

718 

700 

783 

997 

1,339 

1,772 

426 

484 

485 

526 

608 

755 

686 

776 

,028 

,398 

433 

457 

476 

557 

652 

706 

663 

814 

1,041 

1,509 

1,752 

414 

473 

497 

573 

616 

718 

871 

818 

1,090 

1,481 

1,750 

472 

491 

458 

512 

678 

785 

582 

781 

1,115 

1,552 

1,814 

450 

475 

510 

586 

657 

701 

672 

862 

1,107 

1,624 

1,770 

463 

486 

520 

518 

630 

720 

783 

860 

1,111 

1,523 

1,843 

1,03 2 

1,34 4 

1,51 3 

1,49 1 

1,46 7 

1,95 3 

2,14 7 

2,32 8 

2,71 6 

3,62*2 

4,93 0 

1,32 3 

1,34 9 

1,50 0 

1,57 3 

1,86 3 

2,04 9 

2,10 0 

2,30 7 

2,89 8 

3,96 5 

5,25 2 

1,27 3 

1,41 4 

1,45 8 

1,65 6 

1,87 6 

2,17 9 

2,22 0 

2,40 8 

3,15 9 

4,38 8 

5,27 2 

1,38 5 

1,45 2 

1,4 8 

1,61 6 I 

1,96 5 

2,20 6 I 

2,03 7 I 

2,50 3 

3,33 3 

4,69 9 

5,42 7 

612. GENERAL IMPORTS, 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

526 

587 

592 

939 

856 

904 

855 

886 

1,045 

1,057 

1,053 

1,166 

1,247 

1,154 

1,320 

1,089 

1,421 

1,19 9 

1,96 6 

2,31 7 

2,68 7 

2,00 2 

3,22 2 

3,59 9 

4,43 6 

5,24 4 

6,49 8 

9,63 2 

589 

567 

606 

927 

881 

902 

852 

897 

1,06 3 

1,05 6 

1,02 2 

1,20 2 

1,35 3 

1,15 4 

1,32 5 

1,51 0 

1,46 2 

1,60 6 

2,01 3 

2,21 6 

2,59 2 

2,67 2 

3,27 9 

3,56 4 

4,47 3 

5,48 3 

7,31 8 

7,92 7 

582 

548 

577 

997 

904 

923 

762 

907 

1,03 4 

1,11 8 

1,05 1 

1,22 0 

1,29 1 

1,16 4 

1,33 9 

1,48 5 

1,51 8 

1,86 1 

2,05 0 

2,16 6 

2,58 8 

2,98 2 

3,21 9 

3,62 9 

4,51 5 

5,41 4 

7,74 2 

7,46 6 

510 

534 

606 

1,005 

870 

998 

945 

902 

1,019 

1,100 

1,051 

1,218 

1,353 

1,158 

1,368 

1,412 

1,525 

1,81 1 

2,09 0 

2,19 8 

2,60 4 

3,18 3 

3,26 2 

3,77 4 

4,41 7 

5,36 0 

8,02 5 

7,95 9 

590 

548 

636 

986 

839 

931 

848 

939 

1,040 

1,060 

1,066 

1,330 

1,278 

1,162 

1,396 

1,409 

1,535 

1,79 7 

2,06 0 

2,11 8 

2,75 5 

3,25 6 

3,33 7 

3,90 8 

4,48 6 

5,70 3 

8,26 4 

7,26 3 

620 

523 

684 

967 

882 

913 

935 

928 

1,069 

1,058 

1,037 

1,301 

1,276 

1,180 

1,355 

1,432 

1,525 

1,84 8 

2,10 2 

2,18 4 

2,79 2 

3,15 2 

3,26 5 

4,03 7 

4,46 8 

5,77 5 

8,57 7 

7,10 2 

610 

515 

787 

940 

846 

899 

847 

953 

1,063 

1,111 

1,023 

1,227 

1,268 

1,359 

1,341 

1,447 

1,576 

1,74 2 

2,21 6 

2,24 5 

2,72 5 

3,07 4 

3,25 4 

3,83 2 

4,56 5 

5,82 9 

8,92 2 

7,83 2 

626 

487 

821 

885 

897 

910 

851 

952 

1,06 5 

1,09 9 

1,04 6 

1,28 9 

1,24 5 

1,24 3 

1,34 7 

1,50 7 

1,58 5 

1,82 5 

2,13 7 

2,14 5 

2,87 2 

3,16 3 

3,34 6 

3,91 3 

4,72 6 

6,01 0 

9,26 7 

7,87 7 

596 

565 

955 

838 

915 

968 

818 

992 

1,132 

1,074 

1,083 

1,411 

1,210 

1,266 

1,479 

1,455 

1,559 

1,85 8 

2,28 8 

2,19 8 

2,95 1 

3,07 8 

3,42 3 

4,17 9 

4,61 2 

5,64 4 

8,69 6 

8,19 6 

620 

572 

912 

800 

899 

818 

805 

1,04 5 

1,05 5 

1,08 6 

1,09 1 

1,18 4 

1,19 7 

1,29 8 

1,31 6 

1,45 9 

1,55 0 

1,88 5 

2,30 3 

2,25 4 

2,73 6 

3,19 2 

3,49 8 

3,46 9 

4,73 8 

5,99 6 

8,77 3 

8,16 9 

555 

603 

876 

845 

904 

873 

821 

1,04 5 

969 

1,06 5 

1,15 6 

1,29 2 

1,16 2 

1,30 5 

1,41 9 

1,45 9 

1,68 8 

1,94 1 

2,19 5 

2,39 6 

2,88 3 

3,18 0 

3,42 8 

3,45 6 

5,14 8 

6,68 4 

8,97 3 

8,20 1 

677 

594 

891 

812 

978 

837 

874 

9 7 1 

1,05 0 

1,08 0 

1,13 9 

1,35 3 

1,14 2 

1,32 6 

1,38 0 

1,48 8 

1,65 5 

1,91 1 

2,19 6 

2,49 3 

2,90 8 

3,07 8 

3,40 2 

4,16 9 

5,00 2 

6,29 1 

9,25 7 

8,52 2 

1,69 7 

1,70 2 

1,77 5 

2,86 3 

2,64 1 

2,72 9 

2,46 9 

2,69 0 

3,14 2 

3,23 1 

3,12 6 

3,58 8 

3,89 1 

3,47 2 

3,98 4 

4,08 4 

4,40 1 

4,666 

6,029 

6,699 

7,867 

7,656 

9,720 

10,792 

13,424 

16,141 

21,558 

25,025 

1,72 0 

1,60 5 

1,92 6 

2,95 8 

2,59 1 

2,84 2 

2,72 8 

2,76 9 

3,12 8 

3,21 8 

3,15 4 

3,84 9 

3,90 7 

3,50 0 

4,11 9 

4,25 3 

4,58 5 

5,45 6 

6,25 2 

6,50 0 

8,15 1 

9,59 1 

9,86 4 

11,71 9 

13,37 1 

16,83 8 

24,86 6 

22,32 4 

1,83 2 

1,56 7 

2,56 3 

2,66 3 

2,65 8 

2,77 7 

2,51 6 

2,89 7 

3,26 0 

3,28 4 

3,15 2 

3,92 7 

3,72 3 

3,86 8 

4,16 7 

4,40 9 

4,72 0 

5,425 

6,641 

6,588 

8,548 

9,315 

10,023 

11,924 

13,903 

17,483 

26,885 

23,905 

1,852 

1,769 

2,679 I 

2,457 

2,781 I 

2,528 I 

2,500 [ 

3,061 

3,074 

3,231 I 

3,386 I 

3,829 [ 

3,501 

3,929 I 

4,115 

4,406 I 

4,893 

5,737 I 

6,694 I 

7,143 

8,527 

9,450 I 

10,328 I 

11,094 I 

14,888 I 

18,971 I 

27,003 | 

24,892 

614. IMPORTS OF PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

162 

162 

185 

192 

208 

226 

219 

332 

462 

,167 

,080 

165 

174 

172 

187 

206 

252 

220 

334 

456 

1,512 

1,781 

171 

183 

172 

179 

182 

237 

249 

342 

492 

1,560 

1,211 

188 

162 

183 

182 

235 

237 

250 

324 

487 

,299 

166 

179 

206 

180 

215 

203 

270 

331 

550 

2,117 

1,746 

209 

187 

^67 

194 

203 

229 

276 

346 

588 

2,063 

1,354 

150 

191 

162 

228 

215 

200 

288 

350 

520 

2,306 

1,990 

170 

201 

155 

182 

211 

234 

293 

352 

703 

,274 

176 

178 

160 

213 

218 

221 

314 

387 

700 

,200 

2,008 2,515 

173 

173 

173 

210 

223 

231 

286 

390 

787 

2,281 

2,320 

170 

191 

172 

199 

207 

233 

335 

406 

942 

2,308 

2,140 

192 

154 

179 

198 

238 

256 

335 

416 

972 

2,335 

2,360 

498 

519 

529 

558 

596 

715 

688 

1,008 

1,410 

4,239 

6,072 

563 

528 

556 

556 

653 

669 

796 

1,001 

1,625 

6,479 

5,487 

496 

570 

477 

623 

644 

655 

895 

1,089 

1,923 

6,780 

6,513 

535 1 

518 I 

524 [ 

607 I 

668 1 

720 [ 

956 1 

1,212 I 

2,701 I 

6,924 I 

6,820 1 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

I960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966. .. 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973. .. 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

31 

106 

176 

299 

293 

417 

482 

589 

780 

862 

742 

Feb. 

54 

114 

161 

273 

315 

404 

541 

662 

731 

877 

654 

Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 

616. IMPORTS OF AUTOMOBILES AND PARTS 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

61 

125 

169 

229 

325 

404 

561 

680 

753 

797 

823 

89 54 59 

108 113 123 

159 184 197 

260 329 292 

399 392 383 

457 388 428 

533 529 576 

647 680 636 

725 814 821 

898 901 841 

776 731 782 

64 49 74 

130 146 157 

201 183 176 

314 294 334 • 

391 401 438 

419 332 498 

525 660 672 

602 699 622 

806 749 722 

928 859 912 

879 938 861 

Oct. 

84 

139 

206 

346 

443 

446 

549 

681 

858 

809 

888 

721. ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, EUROPEAN COUNTRIES — 

*39 

43 

47 

57 

61 

63 

63 

70 

74 

78 

80 

89 

92 

97 

99 

103 

115 

122 

126 

131 

142 

147 

138 

52 

54 

60 

63 

63 

62 

69 

72 

74 

74 

74 

75 

83 

84 

83 

82 

93 

98 

100 

98 

102 

109 

109 

113 

110 

120 

113 

120 

39 

43 

48 

56 

61 

63 

63 

71 

76 

79 

80 

88 

93 

97 

98 

103 

114 

124 

126 

128 

144 

147 

140 

*52 

55 

59 

64 

63 

63 

67 

73 

74 

75 

76 

75 

83 

84 

84 

84 

94 

98 

100 

99 

103 

108 

110 

110 

101 

123 

115 

119 

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1967=100) 

40 

43 

48 

57 

61 

63 

64 

71 

76 

78 

80 

88 

92 

98 

98 

105 

115 

124 

126 

132 

142 

147 

138 

*40 40 *40 

44 44 45 

48 49 50 

58 58 58 

61 62 62 

62 63 63 

65 66 65 

72 72 73 

76 76 76 

79 79 79 

83 83 84 

90 90 90 

93 94 94 

98 99 99 

99 99 99 

106 100 103 

117 118 118 

124 125 123 

127 126 127 

132 134 133 

142 144 145 

148 148 150 

135 133 135 

41 41 42 

45 45 46 

51 51 51 

59 59 60 

62 62 63 

63 63 63 

66 67 68 

73 73 74 

77 77 77 

80 81 80 

85 85 85 

90 89 90 

94 94 95 

99 99 99 

100 99 101 

108 110 110 

119 119 118 

124 124 125 

128 125 129 

133 132 135 

144 146 147 

148 146 146 

132 132 136 

722. UNITED KINGDOM—INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 

(1967=100) 

54 

56 

60 

65 

63 

64 

68 

74 

73 

74 

77 

74 

84 

84 

85 

86 

94 

96 

101 

99 

104 

108 

112 

109 

112 

124 

119 

116 

52 52 52 

56 56 58 

60 60 60 

64 63 64 

61 61 60 

64 65 62 

68 69 70 

74 75 72 

74 73 74 

74 75 76 

74 74 74 

77 77 77 

83 84 83 

85 83 85 

85 86 86 

87 87 88 

94 94 96 

98 100 97 

101 101 99 

101 99 100 

103 105 105 

109 109 110 

111 109 110 

111 111 112 

114 116 115 

121 121 122 

121 121 122 

114 111 111 

52 52 53 

61 57 56 

60 61 61 

63 64 64 

59 59 60 

64 64 65 

70 69 70 

72 72 74 

73 73 74 

76 76 76 

74 74 74 

78 78 80 

83 84 84 

86 84 83 

86 86 86 

90 89 88 

94 94 96 

97 98 99 

101 100 100 

100 99 100 

106 107 107 

109 109 109 

109 111 112 

111 111 112 

113 113 115 

123 123 123 

123 123 121 

112 110 112 

42 

46 

52 

60 

62 

63 

69 

74 

77 

80 

86 

91 

95 

99 

101 

112 

119 

125 

129 

138 

148 

145 

138 

53 

57 

63 

63 

61 

67 

72 

75 

73 

75 

74 

81 

85 

84 

85 

91 

97 

100 

99 

101 

108 

109 

112 

111 

116 

125 

120 

113 

Nov. 

93 

144 

211 

371 

421 

438 

579 

768 

840 

812 

873 

43 

46 

52 

60 

63 

63 

70 

75 

77 

81 

87 

92 

96 

98 

102 

113 

120 

125 

129 

139 

148 

142 

140 

54 

58 

63 

63 

62 

67 

71 

75 

74 

76 

74 

82 

84 

83 

85 

92 

97 

99 

97 

102 

108 

110 

110 

111 

118 

123 

120 

113 

Dec. 

95 

213 

231 

365 

428 

426 

642 

694 

631 

814 

1,013 

*43 

47 

52 

60 

62 

63 

70 

75 

79 

82 

87 

92 

96 

98 

105 

114 

120 

125 

127 

141 

146 

137 

140 

56 

60 

63 

63 

62 

66 

72 

76 

73 

74 

75 

83 

84 

84 

85 

92 

98 

100 

98 

104 

109 

110 

112 

110 

118 

119 

116 

112 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

146 

345 

506 

801 

933 

1,225 

1,584 

1,931 

2,264 

2,536 

2,219 

39 

43 

48 

57 

61 

63 

63 

71 

75 

78 

80 

88 

92 

97 

98 

104 

115 

123 

126 

130 

143 

147 

139 

~ 

53 

55 

60 

64 

63 

63 

68 

73 

74 

74 

76 

75 

83 

84 

84 

84 

94 

97 

100 

99 

103 

108 

110 

111 

1 108 

1 122 

116 

1 118 

II Q III Q IV Q 

TOTAL FOR PERIOD 

202 187 272 

344 433 496 

540 560 648 

881 942 1,082 

1,174 1,230 1,292 

1,273 1,249 1,310 

1,638 1,857 1,770 

1,963 1,923 2,143 

2,360 2,277 2,329 

2,640 2,699 2,435 

2,289 2,678 2,774 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

40 41 43 

44 45 46 

49 51 52 

58 59 60 

62 62 62 

63 63 63 

65 67 70 

72 73 75 

76 77 78 

79 80 81 

83 85 87 

90 90 92 

94 94 96 

99 99 98 

99 100 103 

103 109 113 

118 119 120 

124 124 125 

127 127 128 

133 133 139 

144 146 147 

149 147 141 

134 133 139 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

52 52 54 

57 58 58 

60 61 63 

64 64 63 

61 59 62 

64 64 67 

69 70 72 

74 73 75 

74 73 73 

75 76 75 

74 74 74 

77 79 82 

83 84 84 

84 84 84 

86 86 85 

87 89 92 

95 95 97 

98 98 100 

100 100 98 

100 100 102 

104 107 108 

109 109 110 

110 111 111 

111 111 111 

115 114 117 

121 123 122 

121 122 119 

112 111 113 

Annual 

810 

1,618 

2,266 

3,712 

4,618 

5,068 

6,776 

7,946 

9,252 

10,264 

9,921 

*41 

45 

50 

58 

62 

63 

66 

73 

76 

80 

84 

90 

94 

98 

100 

107 

118 

124 

127 

134 

145 

146 

136 

*53 

57 

61 

64 

61 

64 

70 

74 

74 

75 

74 

78 

84 

84 

85 

88 

95 

98 

100 

100 

1 lt>6 

1 109 

1 HI 

1 n1 

1 113 

1 122 

1 120 

1 114 

124 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 1 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

[ Monthly 

Jan. 

29.1 

31.5 

33.3 

35.2 

35.7 

41.4 

41.5 

46.0 

46.3 

48.6 

54.3 

57.8 

56.3 

59.7 

65.2 

63.7 

69.0 

73.1 

81.1 

87.9 

95.5 

98.7 

102.2 

109.4 

115.0 

117.7 

127.2 

137.9 

147.5 

140.4 

13.0 

22.7 

26.5 

34.8 

37.6 

39.4 

43.8 

50.9 

58.1 

61.7 

64.1 

65.1 

72.8 

81.2 

83.1 

84.0 

92.1 

99.3 

103.0 

98.1 

104.0 

121.8 

132.9 

137.4 

139.9 

150.3 

154.2 

141.1 

*38 

42 

38 

43 

47 

54 

60 

65 

62 

68 

73 

77 

80 

90 

86 

94 

100 

105 

115 

125 

127 

138 

150 

157 

143 

Feb. 

29*.l 

31.5 

33.3 

34.8 

36.1 

41.5 

41.4 

46.3 

46.8 

48.7 

54.3 

58.7 

56.8 

60.9 

64.7 

63.9 

69.5 

73.6 

82.5 

87.3 

96.1 

97.9 

101.7 

110.3 

115.9 

118.4 

126.1 

140.3 

147.6 

140.4 

14*6 

23.3 

26.9 

35.9 

37.4 

40.3 

44.8 

51.7 

54.6 

62.9 

64.0 

65.3 

73.5 

81.9 

84.0 

82.8 

92.2 

100.5 

102.6 

97.3 

103.5 

121.9 

133.7 

138.4 

137.5 

155.8 

152.6 

143.1 

*39 

41 

39 

42 

47 

53 

60 

65 

62 

69 

74 

76 

79 

89 

89 

96 

98 

105 

115 

125 

129 

137 

151 

157 

142 

Mar. Apr. May 

723. CANADA—INDEX 

29*. 4 

31.9 

33.5 

35.2 

36.1 

41.6 

42.1 

46.9 

46.2 

49.6 

55.3 

59.2 

56.7 

60.9 

65.2 

63.1 

70.6 

74.8 

81.3 

89.5 

96.2 

97.1 

102.2 

112.1 

113.7 

119.3 

127.5 

141.3 

148.7 

139.6 

725. 

14*4 

23.1 

27.6 

36.2 

37.5 

41.4 

45.0 

52.6 

57.4 

60.1 

64.4 

66.0 

74.6 

83.2 

82.7 

86.3 

92.3 

99.2 

104.4 

97.0 

106.6 

123.3 

135.3 

137.5 

140.6 

151.3 

152.0 

144.8 

7 

39 

41 

40 

43 

48 

54 

60 

65 

63 

69 

74 

77 

71 

88 

88 

96 

99 

106 

114 

124 

131 

139 

146 

153 

139 

29.5 

31.9 

34.2 

35.0 

36.3 

42.1 

42.2 

46.9 

45.7 

49.7 

56.5 

58.1 

57.3 

62.1 

63.2 

65.2 

70.3 

74.4 

83.4 

88.5 

96.2 

100.0 

104.3 

110.0 

114.7 

119.5 

130.4 

141.1 

147.7 

139.8 

June July Aug. 

OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 

(1967=100) 

29.7 

32.1 

33.9 

35.3 

36.6 

42.2 

42.9 

46.9 

45.7 

50.8 

55.9 

58.1 

57.8 

61.8 

63.6 

65.2 

71.7 

75.7 

83.3 

89.0 

96.2 

98.8 

105.4 

109.8 

113.8 

120.8 

128.7 

141.5 

147.6 

138.8 

29.8 

32.5 

33.7 

35.2 

37.7 

42.0 

42.9 

46.4 

45.8 

51.4 

57.0 

58.0 

57.3 

62.0 

63.4 

66.2 

71.9 

76.3 

83.8 

89.6 

96.6 

99.4 

106.6 

110.1 

114.5 

121.5 

129.3 

143.2 

148.0 

139.4 

tfEST GERMANY—INDEX OF IN 

14.4 

23.3 

28.5 

36.7 

37.5 

41.7 

45.7 

51.5 

58.6 

62.8 

63.3 

66.3 

75.9 

81.7 

83.7 

86.7 

94.6 

100.4 

103.8 

97.3 

108.2 

123.8 

134.1 

139.4 

141.9 

152.7 

152.3 

137.1 

(1967=100) 

14*9 

23.8 

29.3 

36.7 

37.4 

41.3 

46.8 

53.2 

59.5 

62.8 

63.6 

68.1 

75.1 

81.5 

84.8 

86.2 

95.0 

100.1 

103.2 

98.1 

109.0 

126.1 

140.6 

137.5 

142.2 

151.9 

151.9 

141.9 

26. FRANCE—INDEX 

*39 

41 

40 

44 

48 

55 

60 

64 

64 

69 

74 

77 

81 

91 

90 

96 

98 

107 

118 

126 

128 

138 

144 

154 

139 

14.4 

24.5 

29.8 

36.3 

38.3 

42.2 

47.3 

55.4 

58.6 

62.1 

64.2 

68.0 

77.3 

79.6 

85.6 

87.0 

94.2 

100.4 

103.8 

95.8 

110.9 

127.6 

133.5 

137.9 

139.5 

153.9 

152.6 

138.7 

OF INDU 

(1967=100) 

*40 

39 

41 

46 

48 

56 

61 

64 

64 

69 

74 

77 

84 

90 

90 

97 

98 

74 

118 

124 

127 

141 

153 

158 

134 

40 

40 

41 

46 

49 

56 

61 

64 

65 

70 

74 

76 

84 

89 

90 

98 

100 

88 

117 

122 

130 1 

140 

151 

156 

139 

29.7 

33.1 

33.8 

35.2 

38.6 

41.4 

42.9 

46.9 

45.5 

51.4 

57.6 

58.0 

57.8 

62.3 

62.4 

67.0 

73.0 

75.6 

83.9 

90.7 

95.5 

99.8 

105.9 

110.3 

113.9 

121.7 

129.2 

143.5 

146.6 

138.9 

DUSTRIAL 

16*7 

24.7 

30.8 

36.4 

38.0 

42.7 

47.7 

54.6 

60.5 

63.0 

63.7 

67.6 

77.3 

81.7 

85.1 

88.2 

96.4 

99.9 

103.6 

101.7 

111.3 

126.3 

136.0 

139.0 

140.9 

146.5 

150.4 

132.7 

29.4 

33.2 

34.3 

35.8 

37.9 

41.9 

44.0 

46.4 

46.4 

52.6 

57.3 

58.1 

57.6 

62.3 

62.9 

67.2 

72.9 

76.8 

85.0 

91.9 

96.6 

101.3 

105.9 

109.3 

113.7 

124.8 

129.5 

140.8 

146.5 

139.2 

Sept. 

29.2 

32.6 

34.6 

35.5 

39.3 

41.1 

44.2 

46.8 

46.0 

52.7 

57.8 

57.0 

57.4 

63.5 

63.5 

67.8 

73.3 

78.0 

84.9 

92.1 

97.4 

100.9 

107.2 

110.7 

112.9 

124.8 

131.9 

142.4 

145.9 

138.0 

PRODUCTION 

17*7 

25.1 

32.1 

36.2 

38.7 

43.1 

48.0 

56.2 

60.5 

62.0 

64.8 

70.4 

77.2 

81.6 

85.9 

89.5 

95.6 

100.8 

101.6 

98.8 

117.1 

128.9 

134.8 

133.6 

138.7 

154.2 

149.1 

140.1 

STRIAL PRODUCTION 

*4i 40 

41 

45 

48 

57 

62 

64 

65 

71 

75 

80 

84 

87 

91 

99 

100 

110 

120 

124 

132 

143 

153 

161 

137 

41 

41 

38 

44 

49 

57 

62 

64 

65 

71 

75 

80 

85 

88 

91 

99 

100 

110 

120 

124 

132 

143 

153 

161 

137 

18.4 

25.4 

32.7 

35.6 

39.2 

43.7 

48.8 

56.7 

59.8 

63.3 

64.4 

70.4 

78.1 

82.0 

86.4 

89.7 

95.8 

101.3 

101.6 

101.2 

116.7 

128.9 

133.7 

137.9 

142.3 

156.3 

150.5 

142.1 

... 

*41 

40 

42 

46 

49 

58 

63 

64 

66 

73 

76 

78 

85 

89 

91 

99 

101 

108 

118 

125 

136 

143 

150 

152 

138 

Oct. 

29'.7 

32.8 

34.8 

35.5 

39.9 

41.0 

44.9 

46.3 

46.5 

53.2 

58.2 

56.4 

57.6 

64.8 

63.7 

68.3 

72.6 

78.0 

85.0 

93.5 

98.2 

100.1 

108.5 

111.0 

112.8 

125.2 

134.9 

144.7 

145.3 

138.0 

19*4 

25.3 

33.6 

36.4 

40.3 

44.0 

49.3 

56.7 

60.5 

63.7 

64.0 

72.3 

78.8 

81.3 

86.0 

90.3 

97.7 

100.4 

101.5 

102.6 

115.3 

129.7 

134.5 

138.3 

144.6 

155.1 

148.5 

143.5 

*41 

40 

42 

46 

50 

58 

62 

64 

67 

72 

75 

78 

86 

90 

94 

98 

101 

113 

121 

124 

135 

143 

153 

152 

142 

Nov. 

30'.6 

33.3 

34.9 

35.5 

40.4 

41.0 

45.2 

45.4 

46.8 

53.4 

58.6 

56.5 

58.7 

63.4 

63.4 

68.5 

72.8 

79.5 

86.6 

94.0 

97.9 

102.9 

109.4 

112.9 

114.4 

125.3 

135.5 

145.5 

144.1 

141.3 

19*6 

25.8 

33.6 

37.4 

40.6 

44.2 

49.6 

57.7 

60.9 

63.3 

64.8 

72.2 

79.0 

81.7 

86.7 

91.4 

97.6 

101.7 

99.3 

102.7 

120.0 

132.7 

134.1 

136.6 

146.5 

155.9 

147.7 

146.1 

*40 

41 

43 

46 

52 

59 

64 

63 

67 

73 

76 

79 

86 

90 

94 

99 

102 

115 

118 

125 

136 

147 

154 

146 

141 

Dec. 

31*0 

33.0 

34.9 

36.1 

40.9 

40.7 

45.5 

46.2 

47.7 

54.1 

58.7 

56.7 

59.2 

63.7 

63.1 

68.7 

72.3 

80.0 

86.2 

95.2 

97.9 

103.2 

109.4 

114.7 

113.8 

125.3 

137.2 

146.0 

143.1 

142.1 

20*7 

26.5 

34.8 

37.0 

40.1 

45.3 

51.2 

57.5 

59.4 

63.4 

66.4 

73.0 

80.4 

83.3 

88.3 

91.1 

98.7 

100.8 

98.5 

109.3 

121.8 

133.9 

133.5 

128.9 

148.9 

156.5 

142.2 

147.0 

*40 

39 

45 

47 

50 

59 

64 

62j 

68] 

73 

78 

80 

89 

88 

95 

99 

102 

115 

119 

126 

135 

148 

148 

142 

146 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

29*2 

31.6 

33.4 

35.1 

36.0 

41.5 

41.7 

46.4 

46.4 

49.0 

54.6 

58.6 

56.6 

6U.5 

65.0 

63.6 

69.7 

73.8 

81.6 

88.2 

95.9 

97.9 

102.0 

110.6 

114.9 

118.5 

126.9 

139.8 

147.9 

140.1 

13*8 

23.0 

27.0 

1 35.6 

37.5 

40.4 

44.5 

51.7 

56.7 

61.6 

64.2 

65.5 

73.6 

82.1 

83.3 

84.4 

92.2 

99.7 

103.3 

97.5 

104.7 

122.3 

134.0 

137.8 

139.3 

152.5 

152.9 

143.0 

*39 

41 

39 

43 

47 

54 

60 

65 

62 

69 

74 

77 

77 

89 

88 

95 

99 

105 

115 

125 

129 

138 

149 

156 

141 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

29*7 

32.2 

33.9 

35.2 

36.9 

42.1 

42.7 

46.7 

45.7 

50.6 

56.5 

58.1 

57.5 

62.0 

63.4 

65.5 

71.3 

75.5 

83.5 

89.0 

96.3 

99.4 

105.4 

110.0 

114.3 

120.6 

129.5 

141.9 

147.8 

139.3 

29.4 

33.0 

34.2 

35.5 

38.6 

41.5 

43.7 

46.7 

46.0 

52.2 

57.6 

57.7 

57.6 

62.7 

62.9 

67.3 

73.1 

76.8 

84.6 

91.6 

96.5 

100.7 

106.3 

110.1 

113.5 

123.8 

130.2 

142.2 

146.3 

138.7 

AVERAGE FOR 

14*6 

23.9 

29.2 

36.6 

37.7 

41.7 

46.6 

53.4 

58.9 

62.6 

63.7 

67.5 

76.1 

80.9 

84.7 

86.6 

94.6 

100.3 

103.6 

97.1 

109.4 

125.8 

136.1 

138.3 

141.2 

152.8 

152.3 

139.2 

17.6 

25.1 

31.9 

36.1 

38.6 

43.2 

48.2 

55.8 

60.3 

62.8 

64.3 

69.5 

77.5 

81.8 

85.8 

89.1 

95.9 

100.7 

102.3 

100.6 

115.0 

128.0 

134.8 

136.8 

140.6 

152.3 

150.0 

138.3 

AVERAGE FOR 

*40 

40 

41 

45 

48 

56 

61 

64 

64 

69 

74 

77 

83 

90 

90 

97 

99 

90 

118 

124 

128 

140 

149 

156 

137 

41 

40 

40 

45 

49 

57 

62 

64 

65 

72 

75 

79 

85 

88 

91 

99 

100 

109 

119 

124 

133 

143 

152 

158 

137 

IVQ 

PERIOD 

30*4 

33.0 

34.9 

35.7 

40.4 

40.9 

45.2 

46.0 

47.0 

53.6 

58.5 

56.5 

58.5 

64.0 

63.4 

68.5 

72.6 

79.2 

85.9 

94.2 

98.0 

102.1 

109.1 

112.9 

113.7 

125.3 

135.9 

145.4 

144.2 

140.5 

PERIOD 

19*9 

25.9 

34.0 

36.9 

40.3 

44.5 

50.0 

57.3 

60.3 

63.5 

65.1 

72.5 

79.4 

82.1 

87.0 

90.9 

98.0 

101.0 

99.8 

104.9 

119.0 

132.1 

134.0 

134.6 

146.7 

155.8 

146.1 

145.5 

PERIOD 

*40 

40 

43 

46 

51 

59 

63 

63 

67 

73 

76 

79 

871 

89 

94 

99 

102 

114 

119 

125 

135 

146 

152 

147 

143 

Annual 

29 .7 

32.4 

34.1 

35.4 

38.0 

41.5 

43.3 

46.4 

46.3 

51.4 

56.8 

57.7 

57.5 

62.3 

63.7 

66.2 

71.7 

76.3 

83.9 

90.8 

96.7 

100.0 

105.7 

110.9 

114.1 

122.0 

130.6 

142.4 

146.6 

139.7 

16*5 

24.5 

30.5 

36.3 

38.6 

42.4 

47.3 

54.6 

59.0 

62.6 

64.3 

68.7 

76.7 

81.7 

85.2 

1 87.8 

j 95.2 

100.4 

102.2 

100.0 

112.0 

127.1 

134.7 

I 136.9 

142.0 

153.4 

150.3 

141.5 

*40 

40 

41 

45 

49 

56 

62 

64 

65 

71 

75 

78 

83 

89 

91 

98 

100 

105 

118 

124 

132 

142 

150 

154 

140 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974. . . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948. . . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Jan. 

19) 5 

23. 1 

24. 0 

28. 6 

29. 2 

31. 2 

34. 5 

37.2 -

39. 8 

43. 4 

46. 0 

47. 9 

55. 6 

61. 6 

70. 9 

75. 5 

82. 2 

79. 2 

88. 4 

97. 3 

102. 6 

112. 6 

117. 6 

117. 3 

119. 2 

123. 5 

148. 2 

129. 4 

5 ! l 

7 . 2 

8 . 4 

12. 1 

14. 1 

14. 6 

18. 5 

19. 1 

22. 9 

27. 5 

28. 7 

30. 7 

39. 0 

47. 5 

55. 8 

55. 8 

67. 8 

74. 1 

76. 8 

92. 9 

108. 3 

123. 8 

145. 5 

155. 7 

158. 1 

185. 6 

201. 5 

163. 0 

48. 4 

50. 8 

52. 8 

54. 5 

61. 6 

64. 7 

65. 3 

68. 0 

71. 3 

74. 5 

77. 1 

78. 7 

78. 4 

80. 1 

83. 8 

86. 1 

87. 8 

91. 8 

95. 8 

99. 3 

101. 9 

108. 2 

113. 5 

123. 3 

133. 3 

143. 6 

160. 8 

192. 7 

Monthly 

Feb. 

20*. 5 

23. 1 

24. 6 

29. 2 

29. 2 

31. 2 

34. 7 

37. 5 

38. 5 

44. 4 

45. 1 

49. 5 

57. 2 

63. 1 

71. 1 

73. 8 

79. 6 

80. 0 

87. 5 

98. 2 

103. 5 

110. 0 

118. 4 

116. 5 

116. 7 

122. 8 

143. 4 

132. 8 

^ 2 

7 . 5 

8 . 5 

11. 7 

13. 9 

15. 0 

18. 2 

19. 4 

23. 4 

28. 1 

28. 8 

31. 6 

40. 8 

48. 0 

55. 5 

57. 4 

69. 2 

73. 4 

77. 1 

92. 0 

110. 0 

125. 8 

146. 9 

154. 8 

159. 8 

185. 6 

201. 8 

160. 7 

49. 5 

50. 8 

52. 8 

55. 0 

62. 0 

64. 7 

65. 3 

68. 0 

71. 3 

74. 4 

76. 7 

78. 7 

78. 4 

80. 1 

83. 9 

86. 8 

87. 9 

91. 8 

95. 9 

99. 4 

102. 5 

108. 8 

114. 1 

123. 9 

134. 0 

144. 5 

163. 5 

196. 0 

Mar. Apr. 

727 . ITALY 

2(K7 

22. 0 

24. 9 

29. 9 

29. 2 

31. 8 

34. 7 

38. 0 

40. 2 

44. 4 

45. 1 

49. 8 

58. 0 

62. 9 

70. 5 

75. 8 

81. 3 

78. 9 

89. 5 

97. 3 

103. 3 

113. 2 

118. 4 

114. 9 

114. 8 

122. 6 

144. 0 

126. 7 

7 

5^4 

7 . 8 

8 . 3 

12. 6 

13. 3 

16. 2 

19. 0 

19. 7 

22. 8 

28. 1 

28. 7 

32. 0 

41. 3 

49. 5 

55. 4 

58. 1 

68. 9 

74. 4 

79. 4 

94. 8 

110. 6 

125. 9 

148. 4 

156. 3 

162. 7 

192. 6 

198. 5 

161. 3 

732 . 

49. 5 

50. 8 

52. 8 

55. 5 

62. 0 

65. 3 

65. 7 

68. 0 

72. 3 

74. 3 

77. 3 

78. 7 

78. 3 

80. 4 

84. 3 

87. 0 

88. 1 

92. 1 

96. 0 

99. 4 

102. 7 

109. 2 

114. 8 

124. 9 

134. 3 

145. 4 

165. 0 

199. 8 

20. 7 

22. 4 

25. 6 

29. 9 

29. 5 

31. 8 

35. 1 

37. 8 

41. 4 

45. 1 

44. 8 

49. 8 

58. 1 

63. 5 

71. 1 

77. 8 

80. 2 

80. 1 

87. 8 

98. 9 

104. 2 

114. 5 

117. 4 

111. 9 

113. 8 

132. 1 

148. 1 

128. 6 

2 8 . JAPAN 

5 ! 7 

7 . 7 

8 . 9 

13. 0 

13. 8 

16. 4 

18. 7 

19. 7 

23. 7 

29. 1 

28. 5 

32. 5 

41. 9 

49. 2 

55. 8 

59. 8 

69. 3 

73. 4 

80. 6 

95. 1 

111. 2 

129. 6 

149. 8 

155. 5 

161. 6 

190. 3 

196. 4 

166. 0 

May June July Aug. 

— INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 

(1967=100 ) 

22^4 2K 2 

24. 0 24. 9 

25. 6 26. 2 

29. 9 29. 5 

30. 2 29. 9 

30. 8 31. 8 

34. 7 34. 1 

38. 2 39. 2 

41. 8 41. 9 

44. 5 44. 9 

' 44. 9 46. 1 

49. 9 49. 5 

58. 8 60. 2 

64. 2 65. 3 

72. 0 70. 0 

77. 6 79. 1 

79. 4 78. 0 

82. 8 83. 6 

91. 5 91. 8 

100. 0 99. 9 

104. 9 105. 4 

112. 8 115. 4 

116. 6 115. 6 

113. 1 112. 9 

117. 1 117. 1 

134. 2 138. 2 

144. 7 147. 3 

121. 2 127. 9 

21. 2 

24. 0 

25. 6 

29. 9 

29. 9 

32. 5 

35. 4 

39. 2 

42. 5 

45. 4 

46. 5 

49. 9 

60. 0 

66. 4 

72. 5 

78. 4 

79. 4 

84. 2 

93. 1 

99. 6 

106. 0 

115. 8 

118. 8 

111. 9 

114. 1 

141. 3 

144. 4 

129. 9 

24. 0 

24. 6 

26. 9 

29. 5 

30. 5 

32. 8 

35. 6 

38. 9 

41. 9 

45. 5 

46. 4 

51. 8 

60. 4 

66. 5 

72. 6 

79. 5 

74. 6 

83. 2 

95. 6 

99. 9 

104. 9 

112. 6 

112. 7 

105. 8 

111. 5 

131. 2 

131. 3 

115. 1 

—INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 

(1967=100 ) 

^ 9 6. 1 

7 . 5 7. 8 

9 . 3 9. 6 

13. 3 13. 6 

14. 0 14. 0 

16. 6 16. 9 

18. 2 18. 3 

19. 7 19. 7 

24. 3 24. 9 

30. 7 30. 3 

27. 9 27. 8 

33. 5 34. 4 

42. 0 42. 5 

50. 4 51. 1 

56. 4 55. 5 

60. 5 60. 1 

70. 4 71. 6 

72. 5 73. 9 

81. 6 82. 9 

97. 1 98. 9 

114. 7 113. 1 

132. 3 131. 6 

151. 4 153. 9 

151. 7 155. 1 

164. 2 165. 1 

196. 2 196. 8 

200. 0 189. 2 

165. 1 168. 6 

UNITED KINGDOM—INDEX OF 

50. 4 

50. 8 

53. 1 

56. 4 

63. 0 

65. 7 

66. 2 

68. 5 

73. 7 

74. 5 

78. 1 

78. 1 

78. 7 

80. 8 

85. 4 

87. 2 

89. 0 

93. 9 

97. 2 

100. 1 

104. 6 

110. 3 

116. 6 

127. 6 

135. 6 

148. 1 

170. 5 

207. 5 

(1967=100 ) 

5o! 4 51. 4 

51. 7 51. 7 

53. 1 53. 1 

57. 8 58. 3 

63. 0 64. 4 

65. 3 65. 7 

65. 7 66. 2 

68. 5 69. 9 

73. 2 73. 2 

74. 6 75. 4 

77. 9 78. 6 

77. 9 77. 9 

78. 7 79. 1 

81. 1 81. 7 

85. 7 86. 3 

87. 1 87. 1 

89. 7 90. 0 

94. 2 94. 5 

97. 9 98. 1 

100. 1 100. 5 

104. 7 105. 1 

110. 3 110. 7 

116. 9 117. 3 

128. 4 129. 4 

136. 3 137. 3 

149. 2 149. 9 

173. 0 174. 7 

216. 2 220. 4 

6 . 4 

7 . 9 

9 . 9 

13. 7 

14. 5 

17. 0 

18. 0 

20. 3 

25. 5 

30. 5 

28. 5 

34. 9 

42. 9 

51. 9 

54. 8 

62. 4 

71. 9 

73. 9 

84. 4 

100. 0 

114. 1 

133. 2 

153. 9 

155. 5 

164. 8 

197. 0 

190. 6 

170. 6 

CONSUMER 

50l 4 

51. 7 

53. 1 

58. 8 

64. 4 

65. 7 

67. 7 

69. 9 

72. 7 

76. 0 

77. 3 

77. 8 

79. 3 

81. 7 

85. 9 

86. 6 

90. 0 

94. 5 

97. 8 

99. 9 

105. 2 

109. 9 

118. 1 

130. 1 

137. 6 

150. 6 

176. 4 

222. 7 

6 . 5 

8 . 0 

10. 3 

13. 5 

14. 7 

17. 4 

17. 6 

20. 8 

25. 9 

29. 6 

28. 8 

35. 4 

43. 7 

52. 8 

55. 8 

63. 6 

" 71. 9 

73. 9 

85. 7 

101. 8 

117. 3 

134. 6 

153. 1 

156. 3 

169. 2 

199. 7 

183. 3 

168. 7 

PRICES 

50'.4 

51. 7 

52. 8 

59. 2 

63. 9 

65. 3 

67. 1 

69. 4 

73. 2 

75. 9 

77. 3 

77. 9 

78. 7 

82. 6 

85. 2 

86. 4 

90. 0 

94. 6 

98. 4 

99. 9 

105. 4 

110. 5 

118. 0 

130. 2 

138. 7 

151. 0 

176. 5 

224. 0 

Sept. 

23^4 

24. 0 

26. 9 

29. 5 

30. 8 

32. 5 

36. 4 

39. 2 

42. 9 

46. 1 

47. 2 

52. 8 

61. 1 

67. 2 

71. 4 

81. 1 

78. 7 

84. 2 

95. 6 

99. 9 

110. 5 

108. 5 

119. 5 

117. 1 

115. 3 

138. 6 

145. 1 

128. 9 

6 . 9 

8 . 0 

10. 7 

13. 6 

15. 4 

17. 6 

18. 1 

21. 1 

26. 4 

29. 6 

29. 0 

36. 3 

44. 5 

52. 5 

55. 1 

63. 7 

73. 9 

74. 4 

86. 9 

104. 7 

116. 7 

137. 3 

154. 2 

157. 8 

170. 9 

201. 4 

182. 9 

171. 3 

® 

50. 4 

52. 1 

53. 1 

59. 7 

63. 3 

65. 3 

66. 6 

69. 9 

73. 2 

75. 7 

77. 3 

77. 6 

78. 7 

82. 4 

85. 1 

86. 6 

90. 4 

94. 7 

98. 1 

99. 6 

105. 4 

110. 9 

118. 6 

130. 3 

139. 5 

152. 4 

176. 9 

225. 9 

Oct. 

23! l 

24. 0 

27. 2 

28. 6 

30. 8 

33. 4 

36. 4 

39. 2 

43. 1 

44. 4 

47. 4 

53. 8 

60. 4 

68. 4 

72. 5 

81. 1 

78. 5 

84. 6 

94. 5 

102. 0 

111. 3 

102. 8 

117. 4 

116. 2 

123. 6 

140. 6 

137. 8 

131. 5 

6^8 

8 . 1 

11. 3 

13. 1 

14. 7 

18. 0 

18. 2 

21. 2 

27. 2 

29. 3 

29. 6 

37. 0 

44. 9 

53. 7 

54. 8 

65. 6 

73. 9 

74. 5 

88. 3 

105. 3 

119. 6 

141. 0 

154. 3 

156. 1 

172. 7 

205. 0 

179. 7 

171. 5 

50. 4 

52. 4 

53. 6 

60. 2 

64. 4 

65. 3 

67. 1 

70. 9 

73. 7 

76. 4 

78. 0 

77. 9 

79. 4 

82. 6 

85. 0 

87. 0 

90. 5 

94. 8 

98. 4 

99. 6 

106. 0 

111. 6 

119. 9 

131. 1 

141. 4 

155. 3 

182. 0 

229. 0 

Nov. 

23^6 

24. 0 

27. 9 

28. 2 

31. 2 

34. 7 

36. 4 

39. 5 

42. 5 

44. 8 

47. 8 

55. 1 

60. 5 

69. 3 

74. 0 

80. 7 

79. 1 

86. 8 

95. 4 

103. 3 

108. 0 

101. 8 

120. 0 

117. 4 

122. 2 

139. 4 

130. 5 

132. 9 

6 . 9 

8 . 2 

11. 8 

13. 7 

14. 3 

18. 3 

18. 4 

21. 7 

27. 5 

29. 3 

29. 4 

37. 6 

46. 0 

54. 3 

55. 1 

66. 6 

73. 1 

75. 7 

90. 4 

107. 9 

122. 8 

141. 1 

152. 8 

157. 8 

176. 0 

206. 5 

175. 0 

169. 7 

50^8 

52. 2 

54. 1 

60. 2 

64. 4 

65. 3 

67. 7 

71. 8 

73. 7 

76. 9 

78. 3 

78. 5 

79. 8 

83. 4 

85. 3 

87. 2 

91. 2 

95. 2 

98. 9 

100. 9 

106. 2 

111. 9 

120. 7 

131. 8 

142. 0 

156. 5 

185. 2 

231. 8 

Dec. 

23l l 

23. 6 

28. 8 

28. 8 

30. 8 

34. 7 

36. 7 

39. 4 

43. 3 

45. 4 

47. 8 

55. 8 

60. 7 

69. 8 

75. 5 

80. 1 

79. 3 

86. 5 

97. 4 

103. 2 

111. 9 

106. 0 

119. 1 

120. 0 

123. 4 

137. 6 

124. 1 

126. 6 

7!i 

8 . 6 

11. 9 

14. 0 

14. 3 

18. 5 

18. 6 

22. 2 

27. 6 

29. 0 

30. 2 

39. 0 

46. 4 

54. 9 

54. 8 

67. 1 

74. 8 

75. 7 

92. 3 

108. 8 

122. 3 

144. 0 

156. 0 

157. 2 

180. 3 

202. 7 

169. 3 

173. 0 

50^8 

52. 8 

54. 2 

60. 6 

64. 4 

65. 3 

67. 7 

71. 8 

74. 1 

77. 2 

78. 6 

78. 6 

80. 0 

83. 5 

85. 8 

87. 3 

91. 3 

95. 7 

99. 2 

101. 4 

107. 6 

112. 7 

121. 5 

132. 5 

142. 7 

157. 7 

187. 9 

234. 7 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

20. 2 

22. 7 

24. 5 

29. 2 

29. 2 

31. 4 

34. 6 

37. 6 

39. 5 

44. 1 

45. 4 

49. 1 

56. 9 

62. 5 

70. 8 

75. 0 

81. 0 

79. 4 

88. 5 

97. b 

103. 1 

111. 9 

118. 1 

116. 2 

116. 9 

123. 0 

145. 2 

129. 6 

5 . 2 

7 . 5 

8 . 4 

12. 1 

13. 8 

15. 3 

18. 6 

19. 4 

23. 0 

27. 9 

28. 7 

31. 4 

40. 4 

48. 3 

55. 6 

57. 1 

68. 6 

74. 0 

77. 8 

93. 2 

109. 6 

125. 2 

146. 9 

155. 6 

160. 2 

187. 9 

200. 6 

161. 7 

49. 1 

50. 8 

52. 8 

55. 0 

61. 9 

64. 9 

65. 4 

68. 0 

71. 6 

74. 4 

77. 0 

78. 7 

78. 4 

80. 2 

84. 0 

86. 6 

87. 9 

91. 9 

95. 9 

99. 4 

102. 4 

108. 7 

| 114. 1 

124. 0 

133. 9 

144. 5 

163. 1 

196. 2 

II Q 

AVE 

21. 4 

23. 8 

25. 8 

29. 8 

29. 9 

31. 5 

34. 6 

38. 4 

41. 7 

44. 8 

45. 3 

49. 7 

59. 0 

64. 3 

71. 0 

78. 2 

79. 2 

82. 2 

90. 4 

99. 6 

104. 8 

114. 2 

116. 5 

112. 6 

116. 0 

134. 8 

146. 7 

125. 9 

I II Q 

RAGE FOR 

22 ".9 

24. 2 

26. 5 

29. 6 

30. 4 

32. 6 

35. 8 

39. 1 

42. 4 

45. 7 

46. 7 

51. 5 

60. 5 

66. 7 

72. 2 

79. 7 

77. 6 

83. 9 

94. 8 

99. 8 

107. 1 

112. 3 

117. 0 

111. 6 

113. 6 

137. 0 

140. 3 

124. 6 

AVERAGE FOR 

5 . 9 

7 . 7 

9 . 3 

13. 3 

13. 9 

16. 6 

18. 4 

19. 7 

24. 3 

30. 0 

28. 1 

33. 5 

42. 1 

50. 2 

55. 9 

60. 1 

70. 4 

73. 3 

81. 7 

97. 0 

113. 0 

131. 2 

151. 7 

154. 1 

163. 6 

194. 4 

195. 2 

166. 6 

6 . 6 

8 . 0 

10. 3 

13. 6 

14. 9 

17. 3 

17. 9 

20. 7 

25. 9 

29. 9 

28. 8 

35. 5 

43. 7 

52. 4 

55. 2 

63. 2 

72. 6 

74. 1 

85. 7 

102. 2 

116. 0 

135. 0 

153. 7 

156. 5 

168. 3 

199. 4 

185. 6 

170. 2 

AVERAGE FOR 

50. 7 

51. 4 

53. 1 

57. 5 

63. 5 

65. 6 

66. 0 

69. 0 

73. 4 

74. 8 

78. 2 

78. 0 

78. 8 

81. 2 

85. 8 

87. 1 

89. 6 

94. 2 

97. 7 

100. 2 

104. 8 

110. 4 

116. 9 

128. 5 

136. 4 

149. 1 

172. 7 

214. 7 

50. 4 

51. 8 

53. 0 

59. 2 

63. 9 

65. 4 

67. 1 

69. 7 

73. 0 

75. 9 

77. 3 

77. 8 

78. 9 

82. 2 

85. 4 

86. 5 

90. 1 

94. 6 

98. 1 

99. 8 

105. 3 

110. 4 

118. 2 

130. 2 

138. 6 

151. 3 

176. 6 

224. 2 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

23. 3 

23. 9 

28. 0 

28. 5 

30. 9 

34. 3 

36. 5 

39. 4 

43. 0 

44. 9 

47. 7 

54. 9 

60. 5 

69. 2 

74. 0 

80. 6 

79. 0 

86. 0 

95. 8 

102. 8 

110. 4 

103. 5 

118. 8 

117. 9 

123. 1 

139. 2 

130. 8 

130. 3 

PERIOD 

6 . 9 

8 . 3 

11. 7 

13. 6 

14. 4 

18. 3 

18. 4 

21. 7 

27. 4 

29. 2 

29. 7 

37. 9 

45. 8 

54. 3 

54. 9 

66. 4 

73. 9 

75. 3 

90. 3 

107. 3 

121. 6 

142. 0 

154. 4 

157. 0 

176. 3 

204. 7 

174. 7 

171. 4 

PERIOD 

50. 7 

52. 5 

54. 0 

60. 3 

64. 4 

65. 3 

67. 5 

71. 5 

73. 8 

76. 8 

78. 3 

78. 3 

79. 7 

83. 2 

85. 4 

87. 2 

91. 0 

95. 2 

98. 8 

100. 6 

106. 6 

112. 1 

120. 7 

131. 8 

142. 0 

156. 5 

185. 0 

231. 8 

Annual 

22. 0 

23. 6 

26. 2 

29. 3 

30. 1 

32. 4 

35. 4 

38. 6 

41. 6 

44. 9 

46. 3 

51. 3 

59. 2 

65. 7 

72. 0 

78. 4 

79. 2 

82. 8 

92. 3 

100. 0 

106. 4 

110. 5 

117. 6 

114. 6 

117. 4 

133. 5 

140. 7 

127. 6 

6 . 2 

7 . 9 

1 9.9 

13. 2 

14. 2 

16. 9 

18. 3 

20. 4 

25. 2 

29. 3 

28. 8 

34. 6 

43. 0 

51. 3 

55. 4 

61. 7 

71. 4 

74. 2 

83. 9 

99. 9 

115. 1 

133. 4 

151. 7 

155. 8 

167. 1 

196. 6 

j 189. 0 

167. 5 

50. 2 

51. 6 

53. 2 

58. 0 

63. 4 

65. 3 

66. 5 

69. 6 

73. 0 

75. 5 

77. 7 

78. 2 

79. 0 

81. 7 

85. 1 

86. 9 

89. 7 

94. 0 

97. 6 

100. 0 

104. 8 

110. 4 

117. 5 

128. 6 

137. 7 

150. 4 

174. 4 

216. 7 

126 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

ly45... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1*49. . . 

1950... 

1951. .. 

1952. .. 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956. . . 

1957. .. 

1958... 

1959... 

1960. . . 

1961.. . 

1962... 

1963... 

1964. .. 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970. . . 

1971... 

1972. .. 

1973... 

1974. .. 

1975... 

1976... 

1945. .. 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952. . . 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962. .. 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. 

732-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN 

1.2 

2.3 

10.3 

8.8 

3.4 

2.2 

3.6 

7.5 

1.6 

4.0 

-0.5 

1.3 

2.3 

5.4 

3.5 

2.8 

5.6 

3.2 

1.4 

8.0 

5.9 

6.7 

10.8 

4.8 

7.5 

18.3 

27.2 

62.2 

67.0 

67.2 

72.2 

79.2 

77.6 

77.6 

78.1 

78.3 

80.7 

82.7 

84.6 

85.5 

86.6 

87.0 

88.5 

90.0 

91.8 

94.7 

97.9 

102.4 

106.2 

111.0 

112.9 

118.4 

125.2 

136.5 

153.0 

733-C 

o'.'b 

2.7 

13.2 

0.8 

-1.0 

-0.5 

0.3 

0.8 

3.3 

3.9 

0.2 

0.2 

-0.2 

2.3 

1.4 

2.0 

2.7 

5.2 

2.7 

4.2 

4.6 

4.0 

2.5 

4.8 

8.0 

10.6 

9.6 

2.8 

3.1 

13.8 

9.5 

3.1 

1.5 

3.0 

4.5 

3.0 

3.2 

-0.5 

0.5 

3.0 

4.9 

3.1 

4.4 

5.1 

4.0 

0.8 

5.8 

6.1 

7.1 

11.0 

4.7 

7.7 

18.8 

31.9 

63.0 

66.9 

67.2 

73.3 

78.9 

77.4 

77.6 

78.0 

78.1 

80.8 

83.0 

84.3 

85.3 

86.4 

87.1 

88.7 

90.2 

92.0 

95.3 

98.0 

102.4 

106.2 

111.5 

113.4 

119.0 

125.8 

137.9 

154.2 

2.4 

0.0 

14.5 

11.5 

2.8 

1.8 

6.0 

3.7 

3.8 

3.9 

-1.5 

1.0 

3.5 

5.6 

1.6 

4.6 

5.3 

3.6 

1.2 

6.0 

4.3 

6.7 

11.5 

5.0 

7.5 

18.7 

32.6 

Apr. 

INDEX OF 

May June 

CONSUMER PRICES 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, 

7.* 6 

2.8 

0.0 

15.2 

7.9 

1.5 

5.9 

4.2 

3.1 

3.2 

0.3 

-2.5 

2.1 

3.5 

4.6 

0.7 

4.6 

5.5 

3.8 

0.8 

6.2 

2.6 

7.5 

10.3 

5.2 

8.4 

18.1 

30.8 

4.5 3.2 

4.0 4.8 

0.0 0.8 

15.4 15.3 

5.9 4.2 

1.2 0.0 

5.3 3.4 

3.8 6.6 

5.4 3.3 

4.1 4.9 

2.1 1.0 

-1.5 -1.8 

1.3 1.8 

6.8 5.8 

3.6 2.4 

-0.7 -0.7 

4.8 5.5 

6.2 5.9 

5.5 4.6 

1.2 0.8 

5.9 6.1 

3.5 3.9 

7.3 7.4 

10.7 9.5 

7.3 8.3 

9.2 10.1 

16.1 15.2 

29.9 28.2 

July 

—UNITE D 

PERCENT) 

0.4 

6.8 

2.3 

14.3 

5.2 

-0.6 

3.4 

7.8 

0.5 

5.7 

0.5 

0.3 

2.8 

6.1 

0.5 

1.4 

5.3 

3.9 

4.4 

1.0 

4.9 

4.6 

7.9 

7.7 

11.0 

12.1 

16.4 

24.6 

Aug. 

KINGDOM, 

2.1 2.7 

4.2 

8.9 

4.5 

-0.3 

5.5 

9.2 

0.8 

5.4 

0.5 

1.3 

2.8 

6.3 

-0.2 

1.6 

4.8 

3.9 

3.7 

3.4 

4.7 

4.8 

8.6 

7.3 

10.9 

12.7 

18.2 

18.9 

733. CANADA — INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES (§) 

63.4 

66.6 

67.6 

74.4 

78.4 

77.0 

77.4 

77.8 

78.1 

80.8 

83.4 

84.2 

85.1 

86.5 

87.0 

88.7 

90.2 

92.1 

95.5 

98.2 

102.7 

106.7 

111.7 

113.7 

119.0 

126.2 

139.3 

154.9 

. PERCENT CHANGE 

u'.b 

2.4 

14.3 

-1.0 

-0.8 

1.0 

1.3 

1.3 

2.5 

4.4 

0.5 

-0.2 

0.2 

1.6 

1.8 

2.0 

3.3 

4.5 

3.5 

4.2 

4.6 

3.3 

3.4 

4.1 

8.6 

12.2 

8.5 

0.9 

3.6 

14.8 

-2.8 

-0.8 

1.8 

-0.3 

2.3 

2.7 

3.7 

0.5 

0.5 

-0.2 

1.6 

1.8 

1.8 

3.5 

4.3 

4.1 

3.6 

4.7 

2.9 

4.5 

2.9 

8.7 

13.3 

9.3 

63.6 

66.6 

67.9 

74.9 

78.3 

76.9 

77.5 

77.9 

78.2 

81.1 

83.9 

84.2 

85.5 

86.5 

87.4 

88.8 

90.6 

92.4 

96.1 

99.1 

103.4 

108.0 

112.4 

114.5 

119.8 

127.6 

140.2 

155.7 

(1967=100) 

6 4 ^ 64.8 

66.5 66.7 

67.9 68.3 

75.3 76.2 

77.8 77.8 

76.7 77.0 

77.4 77.9 

78.1 77.8 

78.2 79.0 

81.1 81.6 

83.8 83.8 

84.2 84.5 

85.4 85.6 

86.5 86.5 

87.2 87.5 

88.8 89.1 

90.6 90.7 

92.5 93.3 

96.2 96.4 

99.3 99.8 

103.5 103.8 

108.2 109.1 

112.2 112.6 

114.9 115.2 

119.8 120.0 

128.5 129.7 

142.6 144.4 

157.1 159.4 

S IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PR 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, 

lo!9 

0.0 

4.8 

13.1 

-3.3 

-0.3 

1.3 

-0.5 

3.1 

3.0 

2.4 

0.0 

0.2 

-0.2 

1.8 

1.6 

2.0 

3.1 

3.2 

4.7 

2.6 

5.3 

2.5 

4.8 

4.3 

8.3 

12.7 

10.7 

9.4 9.0 

0.9 0.9 

7.0 5.4 

11.2 8.5 

-3.0 -2.8 

0.3 0.8 

2.1 0.8 

-0.3 -0.3 

4.1 2.8 

3.2 3.7 

1.9 1.0 

0.7 1.9 

0.9 1.9 

0.0 -0.5 

1.8 1.8 

2.3 1.4 

1.8 1.6 

2.6 2.2 

3.2 3.4 

5.6 5.6 

3.1 3.7 

5.9 4.9 

1.4 1.3 

5.0 4.4 

4.4 5.6 

9.8 10.9 

12.1 11.3 

10.1 10.0 

65.7 

67.1 

68.9 

76.9 

77.9 

77.4 

77.9 

77.8 

79.4 

81.8 

83.6 

84.5 

85.5 

86.5 

87.9 

89.4 

91.3 

93.6 

96.7 

100.8 

104.3 

109.6 

113.0 

116.2 

121.5 

130.8 

145.5 

161.6 

66.1 

67.3 

69.6 

77.4 

77.8 

77.6 

78.5 

78.1 

79.9 

82.2 

83.9 

84.7 

85.7 

86.5 

88.1 

89.9 

91.3 

93.5 

97.2 

101.2 

104.6 

109.9 

113.0 

117.0 

122.4 

132.6 

147.0 

163.0 

Sept. 

OVER 6-

-1.6 

5.5 

5.4 

9.5 

1.3 

0.0 

5.2 

5.8 

2.5 

4.3 

-0.3 

1.8 

2.8 

5.5 

0.2 

1.9 

4.8 

4.1 

3.7 

3.2 

6.4 

5.3 

9.1 

7.0 

10.7 

13.9 

19.9 

17.9 

66.6 

67.3 

69.9 

78.1 

77.9 

77.9 

78.3 

78.3 

79.8 

82.7 

84.2 

85.3 

86.1 

86.5 

87.9 

89.4 

91.0 

93.3 

97.3 

101.1 

104.9 

109.7 

112.8 

116.7 

122.8 

133.4 

147.8 

163.4 

ICES—CANADA, OVER 6-MONT 

PERCENT) 

9!6 

1.2 

7.5 

8.4 

-2.5 

2.1 

0.8 

0.0 

4.1 

2.7 

0.5 

2.9 

2.6 

-0.2 

1.6 

2.0 

1.1 

2.8 

3.4 

4.5 

4.3 

4.1 

1.4 

4.6 

5.4 

9.3 

12.8 

11.3 

6.3 

1.8 

7.8 

7.8 

-2.0 

0.8 

0.3 

-1.0 

4.6 

2.2 

0.5 

2.9 

2.3 

0.0 

1.8 

1.8 

0.9 

3.3 

2.9 

4.3 

4.5 

4.3 

1.4 

4.4 

5.9 

9.7 

11.8 

12.0 

... 

s!6 1.2 

8.3 

6.9 

-1.3 

0.5 

-0.3 

0.8 

3.8 

1.7 

1.2 

2.1 

2.3 

0.7 

1.6 

1.8 

2.2 

2.4 

2.9 

4.3 

5.5 

3.5 

0.2 

5.5 

7.5 

9.3 

11.5 

9.6 

Oct. Nov. 

MONTH SPANS ' 

2.A 

5.1 

6.5 

10.9 

2.2 

0.3 

2.4 

5.2 

5.9 

3.5 

3.9 

1.8 

2.5 

5.7 

0.9 

3.5 

4.5 

3.2 

3.5 

4.5 

6.2 

7.2 

9.9 

6.1 

10.5 

15.8 

21.7 

19.4 

67.0 

67.5 

71.0 

78.5 

77.8 

78.2 

78.3 

78.4 

80.3 

82.7 

84.5 

85.8 

86.9 

86.6 

88.2 

89.6 

91.0 

93.4 

97.4 

100.9 

105.2 

109.9 

112.9 

116.9 

123.0 

133.7 

149.2 

164.9 

H SPANS' 

4*.6 

0.6 

10.1 

6.1 

-0.8 

0.0 

0.3 

1.0 

3.0 

2.0 

2.2 

2.1 

2.3 

1.2 

1.6 

2.0 

2.0 

3.2 

3.8 

4.4 

4.9 

3.7 

0.9 

4.9 

7.2 

9.7 

11.5 

8.2 

0.8 

4.3 

8.9 

10.0 

2.8 

0.6 

3.0 

5.8 

3.3 

1.8 

3.1 

0.8 

3.1 

2.7 

3.3 

3.5 

4.0 

2.5 

1.8 

5.1 

6.3 

6.2 

10.0 

5.7 

8.5 

17.5 

23.9 

16.3 

67.0 

67.8 

71.3 

79.1 

77.9 

77.9 

78.3 

78.4 

80.7 

82.7 

84.7 

86.1 

86.9 

87.0 

88.4 

89.9 

91.1 

94.0 

97.5 

101.2 

105.6 

110.3 

112.9 

117.3 

123.3 

134.7 

150.8 

166.4 

3*.i 

0.0 

11.2 

4.2 

-0.8 

0.3 

-0.8 

0.5 

2.8 

2.4 

1.2 

1.4 

1.6 

1.6 

1.6 

1.1 

2.2 

4.8 

2.5 

3.6 

4.3 

4.1 

2.0 

4.9 

7.0 

9.5 

11.7 

7.9 

Dec. 

2.0 

3.1 

9.6 

8.2 

6.4 

0.9 

3.6 

6.1 

2.2 

3.2 

2.6 

0.8 

3.6 

3.9 

4.3 

3.2 

3.8 

2.5 

2.5 

5.7 

6.5 

6.4 

10.3 

5.9 

8.4 

17.3 

27.4 

14.7 

66.6 

67.4 

71.5 

79.2 

77.6 

77.6 

78.2 

78.4 

80.8 

82.6 

84.6 

85.7 

86.9 

87.1 

88.4 

90.0 

91.7 

94.4 

97.8 

101.8 

106.4 

110.8 

112.5 

118.1 

124.2 

135.5 

152.2 

166.6 

1*.2 

2.1 

15.2 

2.3 

-0.8 

0.3 

0.3 

1.0 

3.8 

2.7 

1.0 

0.2 

1.4: 

1.6 

2.1 

2.0 

2.7 

5.2 

2.3 

3.8 

4.0 

4.4 

2.5 

4.9 

6.5 

10.0 

11.1 

8.0 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

2.1 

1.8 

12.9 

9.9 

3.1 

1.8 

4.2 

5.2 

2.8 

3.7 

-0.8 

0.9 

2.9 

' 5.3 

2.7 

3.9 

5.3 

3.6 

1.1 

6.6 

5.4 

6.8 

11.1 

4.8 

7.6. 

18.6 

30.6 

62^9 

66.8 

67.3 

73.3 

78.8 

77.3 

77.5 

78.0 

78.2 

80.8 

83.0 

84.4 

85.3 

86.5 

87.0 

88.6 

90.1 

92.0 

95.2 

98.0 

102.5 

106.4 

111.4 

113.3 

118.8 

125.7 

137.9 

154.0 

6!7 2.9 

14.1 

-1.0 

-0.9 

0.8 

0.4 

1.5 

2.8 

4.0 

0.4 

0.2 

-0.1 

1.8 

1.7 

1.9 

3.2 

4.7 

3.4 

4.0 

4.6 

3.4 

3.5 

3.9 

8.4 

12.0 

9.1 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

5.1 0.4 

3.9 5.0 

0.3 4.0 

15.3 10.9 

6.0 3.7 

0.9 -0.3 

4.9 4.7 

4.9 7.6 

3.9 1.3 

4.1 5.1 

1.1 0.2 

-1.9 1.1 

1.7 2.8 

5.4 6.0 

3.5 0.2 

-0.2 1.6 

5.0 5.0 

5.9 4.0 

4.6 3.9 

0.9 2.5 

6.1 5.3 

3.3 4.9 

7.4 8.5 

10.2 7.3 

6.9 10.9 

9.2 12.9 

16.5 18.2 

29.6 20.5 

AVERAGE FOR 

64!2 e'e'.i 

66.6 67.2 

68.0 69.5 

75.5 77.5 

78.0 77.9 

76.9 77.6 

77.6 78.2 

77.9 78.1 

78.5 79.7 

81.3 82.2 

83.8 83.9 

84.3 84.8 

85.5 85.8 

86.5 86.5 

87.4 88.0 

88.9 89.6 

90.6 91.2 

92.7 93.5 

96.2 97.1 

99.4 101.0 

103.6 104.6 

108.4 109.7 

112.4 112.9 

114.9 116.6 

119.9 122.2 

128.6 132.3 

142.4 146.8 

157.4 162.7 

AVERAGE FOR 

9.8 6^8 

0.6 1.4 

5.7 7.9 

10.9 7.7 

-3.0 -1.9 

0.3 1.1 

1.4 0.3 

-0.4 -0.1 

3.3 4.2 

3.3 2.2 

1.8 0.7 

0.9 2.6 

1.0 2.4 

-0.2 0.2 

1.8 1.7 

1.8 1.9 

1.8 1.4 

2.6 2.8 

3.3 3.1 

5.3 4.4 

3.1 4.8 

5.4 4.0 

1.7 1.0 

4.7 4.8 

4.8 6.3 

9.7 9.4 

12.0 12.0 

10.3 11.0 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

l!7 

4.2 

8.3 

9.7 

3.8 

0.6 

3.0 

5.7 

3.8 

2.8 

3.2 

1.1 

3.1 

4.1 

2.8 

3.4 

4.1 

2.7 

2.6 

5.1 

6.3 

6.6 

10.1 

5.9 

9.1 

16.9 

24.3 

16.8 

PERIOD 

6^9 

67.6 

71.3 

78.9 

77.8 

77.9 

78.3 

78.4 

80.6 

82.7 

84.6 

85.9 

86.9 

86.9 

88.3 

89.8 

91.3 

93.9 

97.6 

101.3 

105.7 

110.3 

112.8 

117.4 

123.5 

134.6 

150.7 

166.0 

PERIOD 

777 

3!6 

0.9 

12.2 

4.2 

-0.8 

0.2 

-0.1 

0.8 

3.2 

2.4 

1.5 

1.2 

1.8 

1.5 

1.8 

1.7 

2.3 

4.4 

2.9 

3.91 

4.4 

4.1 

1.8J 

4.9 

6.9 

9.7 

11.4 

8.0 

Annual 

3^8 

3.6 

12.2 

5.8 

1.1 

3.6 

5.6 

3.6 

3.7 

2.1 

-0.1 

2.1 

, 4.6 

3.0 

1.9 

! 4.5 

4.5 

3.7 

2.4 

6.1 

5.1 

8.2 

8.6 

7.9 

11.6 

19.4 

24.4 

65^0 

67.1 

69.0 

76.3 

78.1 

77.4 

77.9 

78.1 

79.2 

81.7 

83.8 

84. i 

85.9 

86.6 

87.7 

89.2 

90.8 

93.0 

96.5 

99.9 

104.1 

108.7 

112.4 

115.6 

121.1 

130.3 

144.4 

160.0 

777 

6.9 7.2 

9.2 

-1.7 

0.2 

0.6 

0.2 

3.0 

2.7 

2.0 

1.3 

1.3 

0.3 

1.8 

1.8 

1.9 

3.3 

3.5 

4.3 

4.1 

4.5 

2.0 

4.5 

5.5 

9.3 

11.9 

9.6 

'Percent changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month of the span. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 

BCD 1977 127 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948. . . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

76. 2 

70. 5 

70. 5 

77. 0 

75. 4 

73. 8 

75. 4 

77. 0 

78. 6 

81. 1 

81. 1 

82. 7 

84. 3 

86. 7 

90. 0 

91. 6 

93. 2 

97. 3 

99. 7 

101. 3 

104. 0 

105. 7 

110. 1 

116. 1 

123. 3 

132. 4 

140. 6 

735-C 

-8! 2 

-9. 2 

14. 4 

-0. 5 

-2. 6 

1 . 9 

-0. 5 

3 . 7 

1 . 5 

1 . 2 

1 .0 

-1. 2 

2 . 2 

5 . 9 

7 . 1 

-0. 4 

1 . 3 

4 . 6 

1 . 2 

1 . 4 

3 . 1 

0 . 6 

6 . 8 

5 . 0 

6 . 7 

7 . 7 

5 . 9 

32. 3 

43. 4 

44. 1 

48. 7 

59. 5 

59. 5 

58. 4 

59. 3 

59. 8 

60. 8 

69. 3 

74. 8 

78. 6 

80. 3 

84. 0 

87. 5 

91. 6 

93. 7 

96. 1 

98. 8 

102. 8 

108. 3 

! 114. 4 

120. 0 

126. 8 

135. 2 

149. 2 

170. 8 

Feb. 

75. 4 

69. 7 

71. 3 

77. 0 

75. 4 

73. 8 

75. 4 

77. 0 

78. 6 

81. 1 

81. 1 

82. 7 

84. 3 

86. 7 

90. 8 

91. 6 

93. 2 

98. 1 

99. 7 

101. 3 

104. 1 

106. 0 

110. 8 

116. 7 

124. 2 

133. 6 

141. 3 

Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 

735 . WEST GERMANY—INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES . © 

74 ".6 

68. 9 

73. 0 

76. 2 

75. 4 

74. 6 

75. 4 

77. 8 

78. 6 

81. 1 

81. 1 

82. 7 

84. 3 

87. 6 

91. 6 

91. 6 

94. 0 

98. 1 

99. 7 

101. 3 

104. 7 

106. 4 

111. 6 

117. 2 

125. 1 

134. 0 

142. 0 

. PERCENT CHANGE 

-4. 4 

-11. 2 

16. 3 

-3. 1 

-1. 3 

2 . 7 

0 . 3 

2 . 1 

2 . 1 

3 . 5 

-0. 7 

1 .0 

2 . 6 

4 . 5 

3 . 9 

2 . 0 

2 . 2 

3 . 3 

1 . 6 

3 . 0 

2 . 5 

0 . 8 

6 . 6 

5 . 1 

7 . 4 

7 . 0 

5 . 7 

34! 7 

41. 6 

44. 8 

49. 8 

60. 7 

59. 6 

58. 9 

59. 1 

60. 4 

61. 0 

70. 1 

75. 9 

78. 7 

80. 4 

84. 0 

87. 9 

91. 6 

93. 7 

96. 3 

98. 9 

102. 8 

108. 7 

114. 9 

120. 6 

127. 5 

135. 6 

151. 2 

172. 1 

-5. 7 

-9. 0 

17. 2 

-2. 6 

-3. 1 

3 . 0 

0 . 5 

2 . 1 

2 . 0 

3 . 0 

0 . 5 

0 . 2 

3 . 6 

5 . 4 

3 . 4 

2 . 0 

4 . 1 

2 . 3 

0 . 8 

4 . 5 

2 . 5 

-0. 6 

6 . 3 

5 . 1 

7 . 7 

5 . 8 

6 . 8 

7 

34^2 

39. 6 

44. 1 

50. 4 

60. 4 

59. 3 

58. 5 

59. 1 

60. 4 

60. 7 

71. 1 

75. 6 

78. 7 

80. 3 

84. 3 

88. 2 

91. 7 

94. 0 

96. 5 

99. 2 

102. 9 

109. 1 

115. 3 

121. 1 

128. 1 

136. 3 

152. 9 

173. 5 

73. 8 

68. 9 

73. 8 

76. 2 

74. 6 

74. 6 

75. 4 

77. 8 

78. 6 

81. 1 

81. 1 

82. 7 

84. 3 

88. 4 

91. 6 

91. 6 

94. 0 

98. 9 

100. 5 

101. 3 

104. 7 

106. 7 

112. 1 

117. 6 

125. 8 

134. 8 

143. 0 

(1967=100 ) 

. . . ei'.i 

73. 8 73. 8 

68. 1 68. 1 

73. 8 74. 6 

75. 4 75. 4 

74. 6 74. 6 

74. 6 74. 6 

75. 4 75. 4 

77. 8 77. 8 

79. 5 79. 5 

81. 9 81. 9 

81. 1 81. 9 

83. 5 83. 5 

85. 1 85. 9 

88. 4 89. 2 

90. 8 90. 8 

92. 4 92. 4 

94. 9 95. 7 

98. 9 98. 9 

100. 5 100. 5 

101. 9 102. 4 

104. 8 105. 0 

106. 9 107. 2 

112. 3 112. 7 

117. 9 118. 4 

126. 6 127. 4 

135. 7 136. 2 

143. 9 145. 0 

70. 5 

73. 0 

68. 1 

74. 6 

75. 4 

74. 6 

74. 6 

76. 2 

77. 8 

80. 3 

81. 9 

81. 9 

83. 5 

85. 9 

89. 2 

90. 8 

92. 4 

96. 5 

98. 9 

100. 5 

102. 2 

105. 2 

107. 2 

113. 1 

119. 1 

127. 7 

136. 5 

145. 0 

72. 2 

72. 2 

68. 1 

74. 6 

75. 4 

74. 6 

74. 6 

75. 4 

77. 8 

79. 5 

81. 1 

82. 7 

82. 7 

85. 9 

88. 4 

90. 0 

92. 4 

95. 7 

98. 9 

99. 7 

101. 2 

105. 2 

107. 2 

113. 1 

119. 2 

127. 7 

136. 7 

144. 8 

Sept. 

73. 8 

72. 2 

68. 9 

74. 6 

75. 4 

73. 8 

74. 6 

75. 4 

77. 8 

79. 5 

80. 3 

81. 9 

82. 7 

85. 1 

87. 6 

90. 0 

92. 4 

95. 7 

98. 9 

99. 7 

101. 2 

105. 3 

107. 2 

113. 5 

120. 3 

127. 8 

137. 2 

145. 5 

S IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES—WEST GERMANY, OVER 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT 

-6! 5 

-5. 3 

13. 8 

-3. 1 

-1. 3 

2 . 5 

2 . 1 

1 . 8 

3 . 9 

1 . 2 

1 . 0 

1 . 0 

2 . 9 

4 . 9 

0 . 9 

1 . 1 

6 . 8 

2 . 7 

1 . 2 

1 . 6 

2 . 3 

3 . 1 

5 . 9 

5 . 6 

7 . 4 

6 . 5 

6 . 2 

-6. 8 -5. 3 

-3. 1 0. 9 

11. 0 5. 8 

-2. 8 -0. 5 

-1. 1 -2. 6 

3 . 0 1. 6 

0 . 5 1. 6 

2 . 6 1. 6 

2 . 8 3. 6 

0 . 5 -0. 7 

4 . 2 3. 5 

0 . 2 1. 5 

4 . 3 3. 8 

4 . 4 2. 1 

-1. 1 -1. 5 

2 . 6 3. 8 

6 . 6 5. 2 

2 . 7 3. 1 

0 . 8 1. 4 

0 . 8 1. 2 

3 . 1 2. 7 

3 . 2 3. 2 

5 . 3 5. 1 

5 . 4 7. 0 

6 . 9 6. 0 

5 . 9 6. 2 

6 . 0 6. 2 

-4. 0 

0 . 3 

7 . 2 

-1. 6 

-1. 6 

2 . 7 

2 . 9 

0 . 8 

5 . 1 

-1. 0 

5 . 2 

1 . 5 

3 . 8 

0 . 0 

0 . 2 

3 . 8 

5 . 8 

1 . 8 

0 . 2 

3 . 6 

3 . 3 

3 . 4 

4 . 9 

7 . 3 

6 . 5 

6 . 4 

5 . 7 

-4*.0 

0 . 6 

7 . 4 

-1. 1 

-2. 9 

1 . 6 

4 . 0 

2 . 1 

2 . 3 

-1. 2 

5 . 0 

1 .2 

3 . 3 

1 . 6 

1 .6 

3 . 3 

5 . 1 

1 . 6 

0 . 0 

3 . 2 

3 . 3 

3 . 6 

4 . 9 

7 . 3 

7 . 3 

6 . 3 

5 . 1 

3 6 . FRANCE—INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES <§) 

34] 3 

39. 1 

44. 8 

51. 3 

59. 8 

59. 0 

58. 1 

59. 1 

1 60. 2 

60. 5 

71. 7 

75. 6 

78. 8 

80. 2 

84. 3 

88. 4 

91. 8 

94. 1 

96. 8 

99. 3 

103. 2 

109. 7 

115. 9 

121. 8 

128. 6 

137. 2 

155. 4 

175. 1 

(1967=100 ) 

34!} 3s!i 

38. 8 38. 6 

44. 1 42. 9 

52. 8 52. 7 

58. 9 58. 3 

59. 4 59. 4 

58. 9 58. 7 

59. 5 59. 0 

60. 7 60. 1 

60. 4 60. 8 

71. 8 72. 0 

75. 2 75. 4 

78. 7 78. 6 

80. 1 79. 9 

84. 9 85. 2 

88. 6 89. 3 

91. 8 92. 0 

94. 4 95. 9 

97. 2 97. 1 

99. 4 99. 4 

103. 5 103. 9 

110. 2 110. 5 

116. 5 117. 1 

122. 6 123. 1 

129. 3 130. 0 

138. 5 139. 6 

157. 3 159. 0 

176. 3 177. 6 

35. 0 

38. 4 

42. 9 

53. 0 

58. 2 

58. 7 

58. 0 

58. 4 

59. 8 

61. 7 

72. 4 

75. 6 

78. 9 

80. 6 

85. 6 

89. 6 

92. 3 

95. 1 

97. 4 

99. 6 

104. 2 

111. 0 

117. 6 

123. 7 

131. 0 

140. 7 

161. 0 

178. 9 

38. 6 

39. 2 

44. 5 

53. 5 

59. 1 

58. 4 

57. 8 

58. 3 

60. 1 

62. 4 

72. 5 

76. 0 

79. 6 

81. 0 

85. 4 

89. 9 

92. 5 

94. 8 

97. 4 

100. 0 

104. 7 

111. 2 

117. 8 

124. 1 

131. 7 

141. 7 

162. 3 

180. 1 

27. 4 

-6. 6 

2 . 7 

4 . 6 

1 . 1 

-2. 9 

1 . 3 

4 . 0 

2 . 1 

2 . 5 

-0. 7 

3 . 5 

1 . 9 

2 . 4 

0 . 5 

1 . 8 

3 . 1 

4 . 7 

2 . 5 

-0. 6 

2 . 8 

4 . 8 

4 . 0 

5 . 0 

7 . 6 

7 , 9 

6 . 0 

4 . 1 

4 K 5 

41. 3 

46. 1 

54. 2 

59. 6 

57. 6 

58. 2 

58. 9 

60. 5 

63. 2 

72. 8 

76. 3 

79. 7 

81. 5 

85. 7 

90. 5 

92. 9 

95. 1 

97. 8 

100. 4 

105. 4 

111. 9 

118. 3 

124. 7 

132. 6 

143. 0 

164. 1 

181. 6 

Oct. 

77. 0 

72. 2 

68. 9 

76. 2 

75. 4 

73. 8 

75. 4 

76. 2 

77. 8 

80. 3 

80. 3 

82. 7 

82. 7 

85. 1 

87. 6 

90. 8 

92. 4 

95. 7 

98. 9 

99. 7 

102. 2 

105. 5 

107. 6 

113. 9 

120. 9 

128. 8 

137. 9 

145. 9 

6-MONTH 

14^ 6 

-8. 3 

5 . 6 

5 . 1 

-1. 1 

-2. 7 

1 .9 

2 . 1 

2 . 3 

2 . 5 

-1. 2 

3 . 0 

2 . 9 

2 . 8 

2 . 7 

2 . 7 

2 . 4 

2 . 3 

2 . 2 

1 . 8 

3 . 6 

1 . 0 

5 . 1 

5 . 0 

7 . 0 

7 . 2 

6 . 3 

4 . 3 

42^9 

42. 9 

47. 3 

55. 5 

59. 1 

57. 6 

58. 3 

59. 6 

60. 4 

64. 2 

73. 0 

77. 0 

79. 9 

82. 3 

86. 1 

90. 7 

93. 1 

95. 3 

97. 9 

100. 9 

106. 6 

112. 5 

118. 7 

125. 4 

133. 7 

144. 5 

166. 0 

183. 0 

Nov. 

76. 2 

73. 0 

68. 9 

77. 0 

75. 4 

73. 8 

75. 4 

77. 0 

78. 6 

80. 3 

81. 1 

82. 7 

83. 5 

85. 9 

88. 4 

90. 8 

93. 2 

96. 5 

98. 9 

99. 7 

102. 7 

105. 7 

108. 1 

114. 3 

121. 4 

130. 4 

138. 9 

146. 4 

SPANS ' 

7 ! 3 

-8. 3 

8 . 0 

5 . 1 

-1. 3 

-2. 9 

1 . 3 

3 . 7 

1 . 5 

3 . 5 

-0. 5 

-0. 2 

3 . 4 

1.4 

5 . 0 

2 . 7 

0 . 9 

4 . 0 

0 . 8 

2 . 2 

4 . 8 

0 . 6 

5 . 7 

5 . 4 

7 . 5 

8 . 1 

5 . 8 

4 . 9 

42. 2 

43. 4 

47. 8 

57. 1 

58. 9 

57. 6 

58. 9 

59. 6 

60. 4 

65. 7 

72. 8 

77. 5 

80. 1 

83. 1 

86. 8 

91. 0 

93. 1 

95. 4 

98. 1 

101. 6 

106. 9 

113. 1 

119. 2 

125. 9 

134. 5 

145. 8 

167. 6 

184. 2 

Dec. 

77. 0 

72. 2 

69. 7 

77. 0 

76. 2 

73. 8 

75. 4 

77. 0 

78. 6 

80. 3 

81. 1 

82. 7 

83. 5 

85. 9 

88. 4 

90. 8 

93. 2 

97. 3 

99. 7 

99. 7 

103. 3 

107. 0 

108. 7 

114. 8 

122. 1 

131. 6 

139. 3 

146. 8 

1 . 1 

-9. 9 

11. 0 

2 . 7 

-1. 6 

0 . 5 

0 . 5 

5 . 1 

0 . 8 

2 . 8 

0 . 7 

0 . 5 

2 . 2 

3 . 8 

6 . 9 

1 . 6 

1 . 7 

3.6 1 

0 . 2 

1 . 8 

5 . 4 

0 . 4 

6 . 6 

5 . 0 

6 . 6 

8 . 3 

5 . 9 

4 . 6 

43^ 3 

43. 6 

48. 2 

58. 3 

59. 4 

58. 0 

59. 1 

59. 7 

60. 4 

67. 0 

73. 0 

77. 5 

80. 2 

83. 5 

87. 4 

91. 2 

93. 1 

95. 8 

98. 4 

101. 8 

107. 1 

113. 5 

119. 4 

126. 5 

135. 2 

146. 7 

169. 0 

185. 2 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

is'.* 

69. 7 

71. 6 

76. 7 

75. 4 

74. 1 

75. 4 

77. 3 

78. 6 

81. 1 

81. 1 

82. 7 

84. 3 

87. 0 

90. 8 

91. 6 

93. 5 

97. 8 

99. 7 

101. 3 

104. 3 

1U6. 0 

110. 8 

116. 7 

124. 2 

133. 3 

141. 3 

-I'.'l 

-9. 8 

16. 0 

-2. 1 

-2. 3 

2 . 5 

0 . 1 

2 . 6 

1 . 9 

2 . 6 

0 . 3 

0 . 0 

2 . 8 

5 . 3 

4 . 8 

1 . 2 

2 . 5 

3 . 4 

1 . 2 

3 . 0 

2 . 7 

0 . 3 

6 . 6 

5 . 1 

7 . 3 

6 . 8 

6 . 1 

33! 7 

41. 5 

44. 3 

49. 6 

60. 2 

59. 5 

58. 6 

59. 2 

60. 2 

60. 8 

70. 2 

75. 4 

78. 7 

80. 3 

84. 1 

87. 9 

91. 6 

93. 8 

96. 3 

99. 0 

102. 8 

108. 7 

114. 9 

120. 6 

127. 5 

135. 7 

151. 1 

172. 1 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

73. 8 

68. 4 

74. 1 

75. 7 

74. 6 

74. 6 

75. 4 

77. 8 

79. 2 

81. 6 

81. 4 

83. 2 

85. 1 

88. 7 

91. 1 

92. 1 

94. 9 

98. 9 

100. 5 

101. 9 

104. 8 

106. 9 

112. 4 

118. 0 

126. 6 

135. 6 

144. 0 

72. 2 

72. 5 

68. 4 

74. 6 

75. 4 

74. 3 

74. 6 

75. 7 

77. 8 

79. 8 

81. 1 

82. 2 

83. 0 

85. 6 

88. 4 

90. 3 

92. 4 

96. 0 

98. 9 

100. 0 

101. 5 

105. 2 

107. 2 

113. 2 

119. 5 

127. 7 

136. 8 

145. 1 

AVERAGE FOR 

-6. 2 

-2. 5 

10. 2 

-2. 1 

-1. 7 

2 . 4 

1 . 4 

2 . 0 

3 . 4 

0 . 3 

2 . 9 

0 . 9 

3 . 7 

3 . 8 

-0. 6 

2 . 5 

6 . 2 

2.H 

1 . 1 

1 . 2 

2 . 7 

3 . 2 

5 . 4 

6 . 0 

6 . 8 

6 . 2 

6 . 1 

-4. 9 

1 . 2 

6 . 4 

-0. 5 

-2. 5 

1 . 9 

3 . 6 

1 . 7 

3 . 3 

-1. 0 

4 . 6 

1 . 5 

3 . 2 

0 . 7 

1 . 2 

3 . 4 

5 . 2 

2 . 0 

-0. 1 

3 . 2 

3 . 8 

3 . 7 

4 . 9 

7 . 4 

7 . 2 

6 . 2 

5 . 0 

AVERAGE FOR 

34. 7 

38. 8 

43. 9 

52. 3 

59. 0 

59. 3 

58. 6 

59. 2 

60. 3 

60. 6 

71. 8 

75. 4 

78. 7 

80. 1 

84. 8 

88. 8 

91. 9 

94. 8 

97. 0 

99. 4 

103. 5 

110. 1 

116. 5 

122. 5 

129. 3 

138. 4 

157. 2 

176. 3 

38. 4 

39. 6 

44. 5 

53. 6 

59. 0 

58. 2 

58. 0 

58. 5 

60. 1 

62. 4 

72. 6 

76. 0 

79. 4 

81. 0 

85. 6 

90. 0 

92. 6 

95. 0 

97. 5 

100. 0 

104. 8 

111. 4 

117. 9 

124. 2 

131. 8 

141. 8 

162. 5 

180. 2 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

76. 7 

72. 5 

69. 2 

76. 7 

75. 7 

73. 8 

75. 4 

76. 7 

78. 3 

80. 3 

80. 8 

82. 7 

83. 2 

85. 6 1 

88. 1 

90. 8 

92. 9 

96. 5 

99. 2 

99. 7 

102. 7 

106. 1 

108. 1 

114. 3 

121. 5 

130. 3 

138. 7 

146. 4 

PERIOD 

7 . 7 

-8. 8 

8 . 2 

4 . 3 

-1. 3 

-1. 7 

1 . 2 

3 . 6 

1 . 5 

2 . 9 

-0. 3 

1 . 1 

2 . 8 

2 . 7 

4 . 9 

2 . 3 

1 . 7 

3 . 3 

1 . 1 

1 . 9 

4 . 6 

0 . 7 

5 . 8 

5 . 1 

7 . 0 

7 . 9 

6 . 0 

4 . 6 

PERIOD 

42 ".8 

43. 3 

47. 8 

57. 0 

59. 1 

57. 7 

58. 8 

59. 6 

60. 4 

65. 6 

72. 9 

77. 3 

80. 1 

83. 0 

86. 8 

91. 0 

93. 1 

95. 5 

98. 1 

101. 4 

106. 9 

113. 0 

119. 1 

125. 9 

134. 5 

145. 7 

167. 5 

184. 1 

Annual 

73. 5 

68. 9 

74. 2 

75. 9 

74. 5 

74. 7 

75. 8 

77. 8 

79. 5 

81. 2 

81. 8 

83. 0 

85. 2 

88. 0 

90. 7 

92. 3 

95. 2 

98. 7 

100. 0 

101. 9 

10 5. 1 

107. 1 

112. 7 

118. 9 

127. 2 

136. 1 

144. 2 

-6. 5 

-0. 7 

9 . 2 

-1. 5 

-2. 0 

2 . 0 

2 . 2 

2 . 0 

2 . 9 

0 . 4 

2 . 2 

1 . 3 

3 . 1 

3 . 7 

1 . 9 

2 . 2 

4 . 3 

2 . 3 

; 1.0 

3 . 0 

2 . 5 

3 . 2 

5 . 5 

6 . 4 

7 . 3 

6 . 3 

5 . 5 

37! 4 

40. 8 

45. 1 

53. 1 

59. 3 

58. 7 

58. 5 

59. 1 

60. 3 

62. 4 

71. 9 

76. 0 

79. 2 

81. 1 

85. 3 

89. 4 

92. 3 

94. 8 

97. 2 

1 99. 9 

104. 5 

I 110. 8 

1 117. 1 

1 123. 3 

1 130. 8 

1 140. 4 

1 159. 6 

1 178. 2 

'Percent changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month of the span. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 

128 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

736-C 

- 1 i". 2 

15. 3 

22. 2 

18. 2 

-0. 3 

0 . 7 

1 . 4 

0 . 7 

-1. 3 

23. 3 

6 . 1 

3 . 7 

0 . 2 

4 . 9 

5 . 4 

2 . 4 

2 . 2 

3 . 2 

2 . 7 

4 . 6 

5 . 9 

6 . 1 

5 . 6 

5 . 5 

5 . 5 

15. 8 

11. 3 

54. 9 

56. 4 

53. 7 

57. 6 

60. 9 

63. 6 

64. 3 

67. 5 

68. 6 

70. 9 

72. 3 

72. 3 

74. 1 

75. 1 

77. 2 

82. 8 

88. 2 

93. 0 

95. 9 

98. 8 

101. 0 

102. 1 

106. 4 

112. 1 

117. 4 

126. 9 

143. 6 

178. 2 

737-C 

s!i -4. 4 

12. 8 

3 . 6 

0 . 3 

-0. 3 

2 . 4 

4 . 7 

-0. 3 

4 . 0 

-2. 7 

0 . 8 

1 . 9 

6 . 1 

11. 0 

3 . 7 

3 . 7 

1 . 7 

5 . 0 

0 . 6 

3 . 0 

6 . 0 

4 . 6 

4 . 5 

11. 6 

20. 7 

14. 5 

Feb. Mar. Apr. 

. PERCENT CHANGES IN INDE 

-9*. 6 

10. 1 

27. 6 

8 . 7 

2 . 1 

3 . 9 

1 . 0 

3 . 0 

-0. 3 

19. 8 

7 . 3 

3 . 9 

1 . 0 

5 . 4 

5 . 1 

2 . 4 

3 . 3 

4 . 0 

2 . 7 

3 . 8 

6 . 5 

6 . 3 

6 . 0 

5 . 5 

6 . 0 

16. 4 

10. 4 

54. 4 

56. 4 

53. 7 

58. 7 

62. 0 

63. 6 

64. 7 

67. 5 

69. 3 

70. 5 

72. 2 

72. 2 

73. 9 

75. 1 

77. 6 

84. 0 

88. 2 

93. 1 

95. 9 

99. 0 

101. 0 

102. 2 

107. 3 

112. 6 

118. 0 

128. 4 

146. 6 

180. 8 

-11. 0 

6 . 7 

29. 3 

5 . 6 

3 . 8 

4 . 9 

1 . 7 

2 . 7 

2 . 7 

16. 8 

7 . 8 

4 . 2 

0 . 2 

5 . 4 

5 . 3 

2 . 4 

6 . 6 

3 . 2 

2 . 2 

4 . 4 

6 . 6 

6 . 3 

6 . 1 

5 . 4 

6 . 3 

17. 0 

9 . 9 

7 

55. 8 

56. 4 

53. 1 

58. 7 

62. 0 

63. 6 

64. 7 

67. 5 

69. 8 

70. 3 

72. 2 

71. 9 

73. 8 

75. 1 

78. 1 

84. 2 

88. 5 

93. 3 

95. 9 

99. 2 

101. 1 

102. 6 

107. 8 

113. 1 

118. 3 

129. 7 

149. 5 

181. 0 

. PERCENT CHANGE 

5 . 1 

-3. 3 

12. 0 

2 . 6 

2 . 2 

3 . 8 

1 . 8 

5 . 0 

-0. 9 

4 . 5 

-1. 4 

1 . 1 

2 . 2 

5 . 6 

5 . 7 

5 . 8 

3 . 5 

2 . 1 

4 . 6 

0 . 8 

3 . 2 

5 . 6 

4 . 5 

5 . 2 

12. 7 

22. 7 

11. 9 

6!7 0 . 4 

12. 7 

2 . 9 

1 . 6 

5 . 3 

2 . 7 

3 . 2 

-0. 6 

4 . 2 

0 . 0 

1 . 1 

2 . 4 

5 . 3 

8 . 0 

6 . 5 

3 . 5 

1 . 7 

4 . 1 

1 . 0 

4 . 0 

5 . 0 

4 . 0 

5 . 4 

13. 8 

22. 3 

11. 5 

May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 

X OF CONSUMER PRICES—FRANCE, OVER 6-MONTH SPANS1 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

3 U 9 

-12. 7 

4 . 2 

27. 9 

2 . 1 

2 . 4 

2 . 8 

0 . 3 

3 . 1 

6 . 4 

12. 3 

4 . 9 

3 . 4 

2 . 8 

5 . 3 

5 . 8 

2 . 4 

3 . 5 

3 . 4 

2 . 2 

3 . 3 

5 . 6 

6 . 0 

6 . 3 

6 . 7 

8 . 1 

16. 3 

9 . 5 

J 7 . ITALY 

56. 0 

57. 2 

53. 8 

60. 4 

62. 7 

64. 3 

64. 7 

67. 5 

70. 1 

70. 2 

72. 8 

71. 8 

73. 7 

75. 2 

78. 7 

84. 7 

88. 6 

93. 6 

96. 1 

99. 3 

101. 3 

103. 1 

108. 2 

113. 3 

118. 6 

131. 0 

151. 3 

183. 4 

35. 1 44. 3 

-3. 9 7. 2 

6 . 0 7. 8 

23. 3 15. 6 

0 . 3 -1. 3 

1 . 0 -4. 0 

1 . 0 1.4 

1 . 4 1. 7 

3 . 0 2. 7 

8 . 8 10. 9 

10. 6 7. 5 

2 . 9 4. 0 

4 . 7 4. 4 

3 . 3 4. 3 

4 . 8 4. 1 

5 . 5 5. 8 

2 . 6 2. 6 

3 . 0 2. 4 

2 . 9 2. 9 

2 . 9 2. 8 

4 . 3 5. 3 

5 . 2 5. 4 

5 . 7 5. 3 

6 . 1 5. 9 

6 . 9 6. 8 

9 . 2 9. 9 

15. 1 14. 7 

9 . 4 9. 2 

45. 9 

13. 1 

6 . 8 

14. 5 

-2. 7 

-3. 7 

2 . 1 

3 . 1 

2 . 0 

14. 1 

4 . 8 

4 . 8 

3 . 6 

5 . 6 

4 . 3 

5 . 3 

2 . 9 

2 . 6 

2 . 3 

3 . 5 

6 . 7 

5 . 2 

4 . 7 

5 . 7 

7 . 8 

10. 6 

14. 1 

9 . 2 

36. 9 

16. 4 

11. 1 

13. 2 

-1. 0 

-5. 7 

1 . 0 

1 . 4 

-0. 3 

18. 7 

2 . 5 

5 . 4 

2 . 6 

6 . 6 

3 . 6 

4 . 8 

2 . 2 

1 . 9 

1 . 7 

4 . 5 

6 . 5 

5 . 1 

4 . 5 

5 . 3 

8 . 2 

10. 8 

13. 7 

9 . 4 

—INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES ® 

(1967=100 ) 

55. 2 54. 8 

57. 2 56. 6 

53. 9 54. 6 

60. 4 60. 9 

62. 7 63. 1 

64. 7 64. 7 

65. 9 66. 4 

67. 5 67. 5 

70. 2 69. 9 

70. 2 70. 2 

73. 4 73. 5 

72. 2 72. 2 

73. 9 73. 9 

75. 4 75. 4 

78. 7 78. 5 

84. 7 84. 8 

89. 4 90. 0 

93. 8 94. 0 

96. 3 96. 3 

99. 7 99. 9 

101. 4 101. 3 

103. 3 103. 7 

108. 7 108. 8 

114. 0 114. 1 

119. 7 120. 3 

133. 0 134. 2 

154. 5 156. 7 

184. 9 186. 4 

52. 1 

55. 0 

54. 6 

60. 9 

63. 1 

63. 6 

66. 4 

67. 5 

69. 9 

70. 6 

73. 4 

71. 8 

74. 2 

75. 7 

79. 3 

84. 7 

90. 5 

94. 5 

96. 3 

100. 1 

101. 1 

104. 3 

109. 1 

114. 4 

120. 7 

134. 9 

159. 8 

187. 1 

54. 4 

55. 7 

55. 6 

60. 9 

63. 1 

63. 6 

66. 4 

67. 5 

70. 0 

70. 6 

73. 4 

72. 1 

74. 2 

75. 8 

79. 5 

85. 0 

90. 7 

94. 7 

96. 4 

100. 3 

101. 1 

104. 6 

109. 3 

114. 6 

121. 5 

135. 8 

163. 3 

188. 3 

35. 0 

14. 5 

15. 5 

14. 2 

-0. 7 

-7. 8 

-0. 7 

0 . 7 

-0. 3 

20. 2 

1 . 7 

4 . 3 

2 . 8 

7 . 9 

4 . 0 

3 . 4 

2 . 0 

-0. 6 

2 . 5 

4 . 7 

6 : 1 

5 . 5 

4 . 1 

5 . 8 

8 . 5 

10. 7 

13. 5 

9 . 3 

55. 7 

55. 5 

56. 8 

60. 9 

63. 6 

63. 6 

66. 4 

67. 5 

70. 1 

70. 9 

73. 1 

72. 4 

74. 2 

75. 9 

79. 8 

85. 7 

91. 2 

94. 9 

96. 4 

100. 8 

101. 2 

104. 7 

110. 4 

115. 4 

122. 7 

136. 6 

168. 0 

189. 8 

S IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES—ITALY, OVER 6-MONTH 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

-8*. 5 

-3. 2 

4 . 5 

12. 1 

7 . 3 

-0. 3 

6 . 3 

-0. 3 

3 . 8 

-0. 8 

3 . 4 

-0. 8 

0 . 8 

2 . 4 

6 . 6 

5 . 7 

6 . 5 

4 . 4 

1 . 7 

3 . 5 

0 . 8 

4 . 8 

5 . 5 

4 . 3 

6 . 1 

13. 3 

23. 8 

10. 1 

0 . 0 -2. 5 

-2. 5 -5. 2 

7 . 2 11. 9 

7 . 6 5. 8 

3 . 6 4. 2 

0 . 3 -0. 3 

6 . 0 5. 6 

0 . 9 0. 6 

2 . 6 1. 4 

0 . 9 2. 3 

3 . 9 3. 1 

0 . 3 2. 0 

1 . 6 1. 9 

3 . 0 3. 2 

6 . 0 5. 7 

3 . 6 4. 8 

6 . 7 7. 4 

4 . 4 4. 1 

1 . 9 1. 7 

3 . 5 3. 7 

0 . 8 0. 6 

5 . 4 4. 5 

4 . 5 5. 3 

4 . 3 4. 5 

7 . 1 7. 8 

13. 0 11. 1 

25. 0 26. 1 

9 . 3 9. 7 

-0. 7 

-7. 3 

12. 0 

4 . 4 

4 . 9 

1 . 9 

6 . 6 

3 . 0 

0 . 9 

3 . 7 

0 . 0 

4 . 5 

2 . 2 

2 . 9 

4 . 4 

5 . 5 

7 . 6 

3 . 7 

1 . 7 

3 . 5 

0 . 6 

4 . 1 

4 . 9 

4 . 8 

9 . 3 

10. 3 

28. 4 

9 . 7 

2 . 2 

-7. 9 

12. 3 

5 . 1 

4 . 2 

0 . 0 

3 . 1 

3 . 3 

0 . 9 

4 . 9 

-1. 9 

3 . 6 

1 . 9 

3 . 2 

9 . 9 

5 . 3 

6 . 4 

3 . 0 

2 . 5 

2 . 6 

0 . 4 

4 . 9 

5 . 0 

4 . 8 

9 . 4 

9 . 9 

28. 0 

10. 6 

5 . 6 

-7. 3 

10. 6 

4 . 3 

3 . 5 

0 . 3 

0 . 9 

4 . 2 

1 . 7 

5 . 2 

-3. 2 

3 . 6 

1 . 6 

2 . 9 

8 . 0 

5 . 7 

5 . 4 

3 . 0 

3 . 4 

1 . 8 

0 . 8 

4 . 7 

5 . 8 

5 . 5 

9 . 4 

11. 3 

26. 9 

10. 9 

37. 6 

18. 3 

17. 9 

16. 8 

-1. 7 

-5. 6 

0 . 7 

1 . 4 

0 . 0 

22. 3 

3 . 6 

5 . 3 

1 . 3 

6 . 8 

3 . 3 

3 . 6 

2 . 4 

1 . 7 

2 . 3 

5 . 9 

7 . 4 

5 . 7 

3 . 9 

5 . 1 

6 . 7 

12. 5 

12. 8 

9 . 7 

... 

54^8 

54. 1 

56. 1 

60. 9 

63. 6 

64. 3 

66. 4 

68. 1 

70. 0 

71. 2 

72. 6 

73. 1 

74. 2 

76. 0 

80. 0 

86. 6 

91. 5 

94. 9 

96. 6 

100. 7 

101. 3 

105. 0 

110. 7 

115. 9 

124. 0 

137. 7 

171. 2 

191. 9 

SPANS' 

is!6 

-6. 0 

10. 4 

-0. 3 

1 . 6 

2 . 5 

3 . 3 

3 . 3 

2 . 9 

4 . 6 

-3. 5 

5 . 9 

1 . 6 

3 . 2 

8 . 0 

7 . 2 

4 . 5 

2 . 1 

4 . 4 

1 . 2 

1 . 6 

3 . 7 

5 . 4 

5 . 1 

10. 3 

13. 1 

24. 6 

11. 9 

Nov. 

e'/i 

21. 1 

17. 0 

20. 9 

-3. 6 

-3. 0 

0 . 0 

3 . 1 

-1. 0 

21. 7 

6 . 4 

4 . 8 

0 . 0 

6 . 0 

4 . 7 

3 . 1 

2 . 0 

2 . 5 

2 . 5 

5 . 1 

7 . 2 

6 . 2 

4 . 5 

5 . 4 

6 . 0 

13. 8 

12. 6 

9 . 7 

55^ 2 

54. 3 

56. 7 

61. 5 

63. 6 

64. 3 

66. 4 

68. 1 

70. 2 

71. 6 

72. 6 

73. 5 

74. 6 

76. 6 

82. 5 

86. 9 

92. 2 

95. 2 

97. 3 

100. 8 

101. 4 

105. 6 

111. 2 

116. 5 

125. 0 

139. 3 

174. 5 

194. 1 

l'.5 

-7. 1 

11. 9 

3 . 6 

1 . 6 

2 . 8 

2 . 7 

4 . 5 

0 . 9 

4 . 0 

-3. 8 

4 . 5 

1 . 3 

3 . 7 

10. 6 

6 . 4 

4 . 4 

1 . 7 

4 . 6 

0 . 8 

1 . 6 

4 . 6 

5 . 4 

5 . 1 

10. 6 

15. 4 

21. 7 

14. 4 

Dec. 

-7*.i 

15. 7 

20. 6 

23. 4 

-2. 7 

1 . 0 

0 . 7 

2 . 7 

-1. 6 

23. 6 

5 . 3 

4 . 5 

0 . 0 

6 . 0 

5 . 4 

2 . 4 

2 . 4 

2 . 8 

2 . 7 

4 . 6 

6 . 9 

6 . 0 

5 . 0 

5 . 9 

6 . 0 

14. 5 

12. 2 

10. 2 

55! 7 

53. 8 

56. 8 

61. 5 

63. 6 

64. 3 

66. 4 

68. 7 

70. 5 

72. 1 

72. 4 

73. 7 

74. 7 

76. 7 

81. 8 

87. 4 

92. 6 

95. 6 

97.9 1 

100. 8 

101.7 i 

106.0 ! 

111. 7 

116. 9 

125. 5 

141. 3 

175. 9 

195. 6 

k'.il 

-6. 4 

9 . 0 

5 . 3 

0 . 6 

3 . 5 

2 . 7 

6 . 3 

0 . 0 

3 . 1 

-3. 8 

3 . 1 

1.6 j 

4.5 l 

10. 0 

5 . 4 

3 . 8 

1 . 5 

5 . 2 

0 . 2 

2 . 4 

5 . 6 

4 . 6 

4 . 7 

11. 6 

19. 6 

16. 2 

18. 2 

Quarterly 

IQ 

-10. 4 

10. 7 

26. 4 

10. 8 

1 . 9 

3 . 2 

1 . 4 

2 . 1 

0 . 4 

20. 0 

7 . 1 

3 . 9 

0 . 5 

5 . 2 

5 . 3 

2 . 4 

4 . 0 

3 . 5 

2 . 5 

4 . 3 

6 . 3 

6 . 2 

5 . 9 

5 . 5 

5 . 9 

16. 4 

10. 5 

... 

55. 0 

56. 4 

53. 5 

58. 3 

61. 6 

63. 6 

64. 6 

67. 5 

69. 2 

70. 6 

72. 2 

72. 1 

73. 9 

75. 1 

77. 6 

83. 7 

88. 3 

93. 1 

95. 9 

99. 0 

101. 0 

102. 3 

107. 2 

112. 6 

117. 9 

128. 3 

146. 6 

180. 0 

3 ! 6 

-2. 4 

12. 5 

3 . 0 

1 . 4 

2 . 9 

2 . 3 

4 . 3 

-0. 6 

4 . 2 

-1. 4 

1 . 0 

2 . 2 

5 . 7 

8 . 2 

5 . 3 

3 . 6 

1 . 8 

4 . 6 

0 . 8 

3 . 4 

5 . 5 

4 . 4 

5 . 0 

12. 7 

21. 9 

12. 6 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

3 7 ' .I 39 ! 3 

-3. 1 14. 7 

6 . 0 11. 1 

22. 3 14. 0 

0 . 4 -1. 5 

-0. 2 -5. 7 

1 . 7 0. 8 

1 . 1 1. 7 

2 . 9 0. 5 

8 . 7 17. 7 

10. 1 3. 0 

3 . 9 4. 8 

4 . 2 3. 0 

3 . 5 6. 7 

4 . 7 4. 0 

5 . 7 4. 5 

2 . 5 2. 4 

3 . 0 1. 3 

3 . 1 2. 2 

2 . 6 4. 2 

4 . 3 6. 4 

5 . 4 5. 3 

5 . 7 4. 4 

6 . 1 5. 6 

6 . 8 8. 2 

9 . 1 10. 7 

15. 4 13. 8 

9 . 4 9« 3 

AVERAGE FOR 

55. 3 54. 1 

57. 0 55. 4 

54. 1 55. 7 

60. 6 60. 9 

62. 8 63. 3 

64. 6 63. 6 

65. 7 66. 4 

67. 5 67. 5 

70. 1 70. 0 

70. 2 70. 7 

73. 2 73. 3 

72. 1 72. 1 

73. 8 74. 2 

75. 3 75. 8 

78. 6 79. 5 

84. 7 85. 1 

89. 3 90. 8 

93. 8 94. 7 

96. 2 96. 4 

99. 6 100. 4 

101. 3 101. 1 

103. 4 104. 5 

108. 6 109. 6 

113. 8 114. 8 

119. 5 121. 6 

132. 7 135. 8 

154. 2 163. 7 

184. 9 188. 4 

AVERAGE FOR 

- 3 ! 7 l\ \ 

-3. 6 -7. 5 

7 . 9 11. 6 

8 . 5 4. 6 

5 . 0 4. 2 

-0. 1 0. 7 

6 . 0 3. 5 

0 . 4 3. 5 

2 . 6 1. 2 

0 . 8 4. 6 

3 . 5 -1. 7 

0 . 5 3. 9 

1 . 4 1. 9 

2 . 9 3. 0 

6 . 1 7. 4 

4 . 7 5. 5 

6 . 9 6. 5 

4 . 3 3. 2 

1 . 8 2. 5 

3 . 6 2. 6 

0 . 7 0. 6 

4 . 9 4. 6 

5 . 1 5. 2 

4 . 4 5. 0 

7 . 0 9. 4 

12. 5 10. 5 

25. 0 27. 8 

9 . 7 10. 4 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

12i 4 

18. 4 

18. 5 

20. 4 

-2. 7 

-2. 5 

0 . 5 

2 . 4 

-0. 9 

22. 5 

5 . 1 

4 . 9 

0 . 4 

6 . 3 

4 . 5 

3 . 0 

2 . 3 

2 . 3 

2 . 5 

5 . 2 

7 . 2 

6 . 0 

4 . 5 

5 . 5 

6 . 2 

13. 6 

12. 5 

9 . 9 

PERIOD 

55^ 2 

54. 1 

56. 5 

61. 3 

63. 6 

64. 3 

66. 4 

68. 3 

70. 2 

71. 6 

72. 5 

73. 4 

74. 5 

76. 4 

81. 4 

87. 0 

92. 1 

95. 2 

97. 3 ! 

100. 8 

101. 5 

105. 5 

111. 2 

116. 4 

124. 8 

139. 4 ! 

173. 9 ! 

193. 9 

PERIOD 

9 ! l 

-6. 5 

10. 4 

2 . 9 

1 . 3 

2 . 9 

2 . 9 

4.7 ' 

1 . 3 

3 . 9 

-3. 7 

4 . 5 

1 . 5 

3 . 8 

9 . 5 

6 . 3 

4 . 2 

1 . 8 

4 . 7 

0 . 7 ' 

1 . 9 

4 . 6 

5 . 1 

5 . 0 

10. 8 

16. 0 

20. 8 

14. 8 

Annual 

4 . 9 

11. 6 

20. 7 

1 . 8 

-1. 6 

1 . 5 

1 . 7 

1 . 2 

12. 3 

9 . 6 

5 . 2 

2 . 9 

4 . 2 

4 . 6 

4 . 6 

2 . 4 

2 . 7 

2 . 8 

3 . 6 

5 . 5 

5 . 7 

5 . 2 

5 . 8 

6 . 7 

9 . 8 

14. 5 

9 . 8 

54." 9 

i 55. 7 

55. 0 

60. 3 

62. 8 

1 64.0 

65. 8 

67. 7 

69. 9 

1 70.8 

72. 8 

72. 4 

74. 1 

75. 7 

79. 3 

85. 1 

90. 1 

94. 2 

96. 4 

100. 0 

101. 2 

103. 9 

109. 1 

114. 4 

121. 0 

134. 1 

159. 6 

186. 8 

-3^ 5 

6 . 9 

7 . 1 

3 . 4 

1 . 2 

3 . 8 

2 . 7 

2 . 3 

2 . 2 

0 . 6 

1 . 9 

1 . 5 

3 . 0 

7 . 2 

6 . 2 

5 . 7 

3 . 2 

2 . 7 

2 . 9 

1 . 0 

4 . 4 

5 . 2 

4 . 7 

8 . 1 

12. 9 

23. 9 

11. 9 

'Percent changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month of the span. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1953.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

... 

... 

... 30. 7 

48. 3 

48. 9 

49. 3 

55. 0 

56. 1 

62. 4 

61.6 -

61. 0 

63. 3 

63. 8 

65. 3 

67. 0 

69. 0 

74. 6 

79. 3 

83. 4 

89. 6 

94. 1 

98. 9 

103. 8 

107. 7 

116. 1 

124. 6 

129. 5 

138. 4 

167. 1 

195. 5 

738-C 

777 

... 

... 

... 32. 5 

-17. 4 

35. 1 

-0. 4 

8 . 9 

-1. 3 

-1. 0 

0 . 7 

3 . 2 

-1. 2 

-2. 1 

4 . 6 

6 . 6 

5 . 0 

11. 5 

3 . 1 

9 . 8 

5 . 0 

4 . 0 

4 . 0 

5 . 1 

9 . 4 

3 . 1 

1 . 5 

13. 5 

33. 8 

9 . 4 

33^ 9 

39. 7 

36. 4 

33. 9 

28. 0 

31. 8 

30. 8 

32. 2 

37. 7 

53. 6 

48. 5 

48. 5 

45. 3 

60. 5 

88. 0 

87. 7 

82. 4 

85. 1 

98. 8 

93. 4 

97. 8 

88. 9 

114. 7 

164. 6 

139. 4 

123. 5 

175. 2 

182. 2 

126. 1 

68. 9 

Feb. 

... 

... 

... 30. 1 

48. 9 

47. 0 

51. 4 

55. 0 

56. 7 

62. 6 

61. 7 

61. 7 

62. 8 

63. 5 

64. 8 

67. 2 

69. 4 

74. 5 

80. 0 

83. 1 

89. 6 

94. 9 

99. 4 

104. 2 

108. 1 

117. 1 

124. 4 

130. 1 

139. 6 

172. 5 

196. 2 

Mar. 

7 

777 

... 

... 33. 5 

50. 1 

45. 7 

52. 5 

55. 4 

56. 9 

62. 6 

61. 4 

62. 2 

62. 9 

63. 3 

64. 8 

67. 1 

69. 9 

75. 0 

80. 9 

84. 0 

90. 9 

95. 3 

99. 8 

104. 7 

109. 2 

118. 4 

124. 3 

131. 0 

142. 8 

173. 8 

198. 2 

. PERCENT CHANGE 

777 

... 

... 

... 28. 8 

-14. 1 

28. 3 

-3. 9 

8 . 9 

1 . 3 

-0. 3 

2 . 0 

5 . 2 

-0. 3 

-2. 7 

4 . 3 

3 . 3 

5 . 5 

12. 8 

2 . 9 

7 . 9 

4 . 3 

3 . 1 

5 . 7 

5 . 3 

7 . 3 

3 . 9 

4 . 0 

16. 7 

29. 4 

8 . 8 

34^ 2 

38. 3 

31. 7 

33. 0 

28. 9 

32. 5 

30. 2 

33. 1 

38. 4 

47. 9 

45. 5 

48. 9 

42. 9 

62. 1 

86. 1 

92. 0 

83. 2 

86. 6 

96. 2 

95. 7 

100. 9 

88. 6 

118. 1 

159. 5 

135. 0 

121. 7 

180. 2 

168. 4 

123. 5 

99. 0 

... 

... 

... 

... 22. 0 

-19. 6 

24. 2 

-1. 8 

13. 9 

1 . 3 

0 . 7 

5 . 6 

3 . 2 

2 . 5 

-3. 0 

3 . 3 

6 . 2 

4 . 9 

13. 2 

5 . 1 

9 . 4 

6 . 3 

1 . 8 

2 . 9 

7 . 2 

6 . 6 

5 . 4 

5 . 1 

16. 3 

25. 2 

8 . 8 

742 . 

33^ 6 

37. 8 

33. 0 

30. 5 

28. 3 

32. 2 

28. 9 

33. 8 

38. 8 

48. 9 

46. 2 

49. 2 

45. 8 

62. 5 

86. 9 

95. 9 

81. 1 

88. 6 

98. 8 

92. 2 

98. 6 

90. 0 

120. 5 

152. 6 

131. 4 

120. 2 

185. 9 

164. 4 

115. 7 

108. 8 

Apr. May June 

3 8 . JAPAN—INDEX OF CONSl 

... 

... 

... 35. 3 

50. 8 

44. 5 

52. 8 

55. 5 

57. 9 

62. 8 

62. 4 

61. 8 

63. 5 

63. 8 

65. 2 

67. 6 

70. 6 

75. 8 

81. 8 

85. 4 

92. 7 

96. 9 

99. 8 

104. 9 

110. 5 

119. 3 

126. 2 

132. 1 

145. 2 

179. 1 

203. 1 

(1967=100 ) 

... ... 

... ... 

... ... 36. 7 40. 7 

52. 0 50. 7 

45. 0 43. 1 

52. 4 52. 2 

54. 8 54. 3 

57. 7 58. 6 

62. 6 62. 6 

61. 7 61. 4 

61. 7 62. 9 

. 64. 0 64. 2 

63. 8 64. 8 

64. 8 64. 7 

67. 9 67. 9 

69. 6 70. 8 

76. 7 76. 7 

82. 7 83. 7 

85. 5 85. 6 

91. 4 91. 4 

95. 6 96. 3 

98. 6 98. 1 

105. 4 103. 9 

110. 3 110. 3 

117. 9 117. 3 

126. 1 127. 3 

132. 9 132. 9 

147. 8 148. 3 

179. 3 180. 5 

205. 3 205. 3 

July Aug. 

"iER PRICES <§) 

... 

... 

... 40. 1 

48. 4 

44. 6 

51. 4 

55. 3 

59. 0 

62. 9 

60. 8 

60. 9 

64. 2 

64. 0 

64. 8 

67. 8 

71. 4 

77. 3 

84. 1 

85. 5 

90. 9 

96. 4 

98. 0 

104. 5 

112. 8 

117. 8 

126. 7 

133. 0 

149. 5 

184. 0 

205. 6 

... 

... 

... 43. 8 

47. 7 

45. 0 

53. 2 

55. 0 

59. 4 

62. 2 

61. 4 

61. 7 

64. 7 

64. 8 

65. 9 

68. 5 

71. 9 

76. 1 

81. 9 

85. 6 

91. 1 

95. 7 

98. 6 

104. 4 

112. 8 

118. 4 

125. 7 

134. 0 

150. 8 

185. 2 

204. 8 

Sept. 

... 

... 

... 45. 9 

48. 2 

45. 5 

54. 2 

54. 9 

60. 5 

62. 2 

61. 0 

62. 2 

64. 5 

64. 7 

65. 6 

68. 5 

72. 2 

75. 7 

82. 7 

36. 1 

92. 7 

96. 8 

101. 1 

108. 5 

114. 2 

121. 5 

130. 9 

135. 4 

154. 7 

188. 5 

208. 9 

S IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES—JAPAN, OVER 6-MONTH 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, 

777 

... 

... 84. 1 

7 . 8 

-11. 3 

14. 1 

4 . 8 

13. 3 

3 . 9 

-1. 0 

1 . 3 

4 . 5 

1 . 9 

-0. 3 

3 . 0 

7 . 4 

7 . 6 

13. 0 

6 . 1 

4 . 5 

7 . 2 

0 . 2 

3 . 5 

11. 9 

4 . 4 

4 . 4 

6 . 0 

17. 0 

21. 1 

10. 3 

... ... 

... ... 119. 5 93. 5 

-1. 2 -4. 0 

-4. 3 2. 7 

11. 4 10. 3 

4 . 1 1. 1 

12. 8 15. 4 

0 . 3 -0. 3 

-0. 3 -1. 0 

0 . 0 -0. 6 

5 . 5 4. 2 

2 . 8 3. 8 

2 . 2 2. 2 

3 . 0 4. 5 

6 . 7 7. 6 

4 . 3 3. 2 

5 . 6 6. 5 

7 . 8 7. 0 

5 . 7 5. 8 

4 . 7 4. 7 

1 . 6 3. 5 

3 . 3 7. 8 

11. 6 9. 4 

3 . 8 5. 2 

3 . 2 10. 6 

6 . 9 6. 5 

17. 7 17. 1 

16. 6 17. 3 

10. 6 10. 7 

UNITED KINGDOM—INDEX OF 

33. 3 

35. 6 

39. 2 

34. 2 

31. 0 

28. 3 

35. 1 

30. 8 

33. 1 

40. 8 

49. 9 

49. 6 

51. 9 

47. 9 

65. 2 

82. 1 

98. 0 

86. 9 

89. 9 

100. 5 

92. 6 

98. 3 

94. 8 

133. 3 

150. 7 

128. 8 

130. 6 

191. 1 

168. 1 

111. 6 

114. 7 

(1967=100 ) 

31. 0 32. 5 

37. 0 37. 0 

40. 3 39. 5 

34. 2 31. 9 

29. 9 27. 7 

28. 9 30. 3 

36. 1 36. 4 

27. 8 27. 5 

31. 8 31. 8 

41. 7 42. 8 

53. 6 58. 0 

47. 2 45. 8 

52. 3 53. 0 

48. 3 50. 7 

67. 3 67. 5 

85. 0 82. 7 

96. 8 89. 0 

85. 0 77. 5 

90. 6 90. 0 

99. 0 97. 6 

94. 2 90. 3 

101. 2 102. 5 

96. 8 97. 2 

139. 4 142. 5 

143. 3 133. 0 

115. 6 112. 7 

146. 5 147. 2 

194. 6 184. 2 

166. 8 171. 3 

112. 4 103. 2 

125. 7 126. 7 

PERCENT 

... 

... 

... 55. 9 

-7. 4 

4 . 6 

10. 6 

0 . 4 

19. 3 

0 . 3 

-2. 2 

2 . 6 

2 . 2 

6 . 7 

2 . 5 

2 . 1 

9 . 3 

4 . 0 

5 . 2 

7 . 2 

4 . 0 

2 . 3 

6 . 4 

5 . 9 

6 . 9 

8 . 3 

7 . 8 

6 . 2 

13. 4 

17. 3 

10. 8 

... 

... 

... 56. 8 

-12. 5 

6 . 9 

14. 7 

2 . 2 

16. 6 

-2. 9 

-1. 9 

2 . 3 

-0. 3 

6 . 0 

5 . 0 

1 . 2 

14. 6 

2 . 9 

• 4. 2 

6 . 2 

5 . 3 

3 . 6 

8 . 5 

4 . 0 

6 . 1 

9 . 7 

6 . 1 

5 . 5 

13. 4 

20. 3 

8 . 9 

STOCK PRICES ® 

31. 9 

36. 7 

38. 3 

31. 7 

27. 7 

29. 1 

34. 2 

29. 1 

32. 5 

44. 8 

56. 6 

47. 6 

53. 3 

50. 7 

66. 3 

82. 8 

86. 5 

77. 2 

91. 2 

101. 0 

87. 0 

98. 0 

99. 5 

150. 0 

128. 6 

115. 0 

156. 7 

187. 3 

161. 3 

93. 6 

118. 7 

31. 9 

37. 0 

31. 9 

31. 9 

28. 0 

29. 7 

35. 5 

31. 1 

34. 2 

47. 4 

53. 3 

47. 9 

51. 6 

53. 7 

72. 0 

87. 4 

83. 2 

80. 1 

93. 9 

102. 1 

88. 1 

87. 4 

100. 2 

154. 0 

128. 1 

118. 1 

158. 5 

195. 5 

156. 4 

81. 7 

115. 3 

... 

... 

27. ... 1 

-9. 6 

18. 3 

10. 6 

1 . 8 

12. 2 

-4. 7 

-1. 3 

1.0 

-0. 6 

2 . 5 

6 . 6 

2 . 1 

12. 0 

5 . 3 

-0. 2 

4 . 7 

5 . 1 

2 . 5 

9 . 3 

5 . 2 

5 . 8 

11. 3 

3 . 2 

6 . 7 

18. 0 

18. 8 

7 . 6 

32. 5 

35. 0 

33. 3 

32. 2 

29. 1 

31. 0 

36. 1 

30. 5 

35. 1 

48. 1 

52. 3 

46. 9 

46. 9 

55. 6 

70. 5 

86. 5 

81. 9 

80. 0 

95. 9 

102. 5 

90. 3 

86. 3 

105. 3 

157. 5 

129. 7 

120. 5 

163. 6 

183. 3 

154. 5 

74. 4 

127. 8 

Oct. 

... 

... 

... 42. 8 

47. 5 

44. 3 

54. 5 

54. 8 

62. 9 

62. 9 

62. 1 

63. 2 

64. 8 

66. 4 

66. 4 

68. 5 

73. 8 

77. 0 

83. 4 

87. 8 

93. 9 

97. 4 

102. 5 

107. 5 

114. 0 

124. 0 

130. 6 

135. 6 

153. 6 

192. 7 

212. 2 

SPANS' 

... 

... 

34. ..5 . 

-4. 4 

15. 6 

10. 3 

0 . 0 

9 . 7 

-5. 9 

-0. 7 

6 . 3 

-2. 8 

2 . 8 

5 . 9 

3 . 0 

8 . 9 

5 . 0 

-2. 4 

8 . 6 

5 . 3 

3 . 1 

10. 0 

4 . 0 

4 . 3 

10. 6 

3 . 6 

7 . 9 

24. 7 

13. 1 

9 . 8 

33. 9 

36. 1 

32. 8 

33. 0 

27. 5 

31. 0 

37. 1 

30. 5 

36. 1 

50. 7 

51. 2 

46. 9 

44. 2 

57. 3 

80. 8 

87. 6 

80. 0 

80. 4 

98. 0 

100. 0 

95. 9 

85. 0 

110. 8 

152. 7 

127. 4 

128. 5 

159. 8 

180. 0 

159. 2 

70. 9 

132. 4 

Nov. 

... 

... 

... 43. 8 

46. 7 

45. 0 

55. 0 

54. 8 

62. 0 

61. 6 

60. 9 

62. 3 

63. 8 

65. 7 

66. 4 

68. 1 

74. 0 

76. 9 

83. 3 

87. 1 

92. 9 

96. 8 

102. 5 

107. 7 

113. 8 

123. 4 

129. 4 

135. 4 

155. 6 

193. 9 

211. 0 

... 

... 

20. ..0 . 

-6. 6 

25. 3 

3 . 0 

2 . 9 

8 . 9 

-2. 5 

0 . 7 

3 . 9 

-2. 8 

1 . 2 

5 . 2 

3 . 5 

7 . 9 

10. 2 

2 . 0 

7 . 6 

5 . 7 

4 . 6 

8 . 2 

4 . 4 

5 . 7 

8 . 9 

6 . 3 

7 . 9 

29. 6 

11. 0 

11. 2 

33. 9 

38. 1 

34. 2 

33. 6 

27. 7 

31. 4 

33. 5 

30. 8 

35. 8 

50. 1 

50. 3 

42. 8 

44. 9 

57. 9 

82. 8 

83. 3 

80. 9 

83. 7 

99. 3 

95. 4 

98. 3 

83. 0 

115. 2 

154. 6 

128. 6 

120. 4 

156. 1 

185. 6 

151. 2 

65. 3 

141. 6 

Dec. 

... 

... 

... 45. 5 

47. 8 

46. 7 

54. 8 

54. 9 

62. 0 

61. 0 

60. 9 

62. 9 

63. 8 

65. 4 

66. 4 

68. 2 

74. 3 

78. 0 

82. 9 

87. 0 

93. 3 

97. 5 

103. 0 

107. 2 

114. 2 

124. 2 

129. 4 

136. 8 

160. 0 

194. 7 

210. 6 

... 

14. ..9 . 

-13. 2 

29. 1 

1 . 5 

5 . 2 

6 . 0 

-2. 9 

4 . 3 

3 . 2 

-2. 8 

0 . 9 

4 . 6 

3 . 5 

6 . 7 

12. 2 

1.0 

9 . 0 

3 . 7 

4 . 8 

6 . 4 

0 . 9 

7 . 7 

5 . 0 

0 . 6 

11. 7 

26. 6 

11. 0 

10. 2 

33. 0 

39. 2 

35. 8 

33. 3 

28. 5 

30. 8 

32. 8 

30. 8 

36. 4 

50. 7 

51. 9 

45. 8 

43. 8 

61. 8 

88. 5 

84. 3 

82. 2 

84. 9 

101. 1 

92. 0 

96. 4 

85. 4 

113. 2 

157. 9 

132. 4 

121. 0 

165. 6 

190. 8 

126. 5 

58. 3 

140. 1 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

... 

... 

31. 4 

49. 1 

47. 2 

51. 1 

55. 1 

56. 6 

62. 5 

61. 6 

61. 6 

63. 0 

63. 5 

65. 0 

67. 1 

69. 4 

74. 7 

8U. 1 

83. 5 

90. 0 

94. 8 

99. 4 

104. 2 

10d. 3 

117. 2 

124. 4 

130. 2 

140. 3 

171. 1 

196. 6 

... 

... 

... 

27. ..8 . 

-17. 0 

29. 2 

-2. 0 

10. 6 

0 . 4 

-0. 2 

2 . 8 

3 . 9 

0 . 3 

-2. 6 

4 . 1 

5 . 4 

5 . 1 

12. 5 

3 . 7 

9 . 0 

5 . 2 

3 . 0 

4 . 2 

5 . 9 

7 . 8 

4 . 1 

3 . 5 

15. 5 

29. 5 

9 . 0 

33. 9 

38. 6 

33. 7 

32. 5 

28. 4 

32. 2 

30. 0 

33. 0 

38. 3 

50. 1 

46. 7 

48. 9 

44. 7 

61. 7 

87. 0 

91. 9 

82. 2 

86. 8 

97. 9 

93. 8 

99. 1 

89. 2 

117. 8 

158. 9 

135. 3 

121. 8 

180. 4 

171. 7 

121. 8 

92. 2 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

... 

... 

... 37. 6 

51. 2 

44. 2 

52. 5 

54. 9 

58. 1 

62. 7 

61. 8 

62. 1 

63. 9 

64. 1 

64. 9 

67. 8 

70. 3 

76. 4 

82. 7 

85. 5 

91. 8 

96. 3 

98. 8 

104. 7 

110. 4 

118. 2 

126. 5 

132. 6 

147. 1 

179. 6 

204. 6 

... 

... 

... 43. 3 

48. 1 

45. 0 

52. 9 

55. 1 

59. 6 

62. 4 

61. 1 

61. 6 

64. 5 

64. 5 

65. 4 

68. 3 

71. 8 

76. 4 

82. 9 

85. 7 

91. 6 

96. 3 

99. 2 

105. 8 

113. 3 

119. 2 

127. 8 

134. 1 

151. 7 

185. 9 

206. 4 

AVERAGE FOR 

... 

... 

99. ..0 . 

0 . 9 

-4. 3 

11. 9 

3 . 3 

13. 8 

1 . 3 

-0. 8 

0 . 2 

4 . 7 

2 . 8 

1.4 

3 . 5 

7 . 2 

5 . 0 

8 . 4 

7 . 0 

5 . 3 

5 . 5 

1 . 8 

4 . 9 

11. 0 

4 . 5 

6 . 1 

6 . 5 

17. 3 

18. 3 

10. 5 

... 

... 

46. ..6 . 

-9. 8 

9 . 9 

12. 0 

1 . 5 

16. 0 

-2. 4 

-1. 8 

2 . 0 

0 . 4 

5 . 1 

4 . 7 

1 . 8 

12. 0 

4 . 1 

3 . 1 

6 . 0 

4 . 8 

2 . 8 

8 . 1 

5 . 0 

6 . 3 

9 . 8 

5 . 7 

6 . 1 

14. 9 

18. 8 

9 . 1 

AVERAGE FOR 

32. 3 

36. 5 

39. 7 

33. 4 

29. 5 

29. 2 

35. 9 

28. 7 

32. 2 

41. 8 

53. 8 

47. 5 

52. 4 

49. 0 

66. 7 

83. 3 

94. 6 

83. 1 

90. 2 

99. 0 

;

 92. 4 

100. 7 

96. 3 

138. 4 

142. 3 

119. 0 

141. 4 

190. 0 

168. 7 

109. 1 

122. 4 

32. 1 

36. 2 

34. 5 

31. 9 

28. 3 

29. 9 

35. 3 

30. 2 

33. 9 

46. 8 

54. 1 

47. 5 

50. 6 

53. 3 

69. 6 

85. 6 

83. 9 

79. 1 

93. 7 

101. 9 

88. 5 

90. 6 

101. 7 

153. 8 

128. 8 

117. 9 

159. 6 

188. 7 

157. 4 

83. 2 

120. 6 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

... 

... 

... 44. 0 

47. 3 

45. 3 

54. 8 

54. 8 

62. 3 

61. 8 

61. 3 

62. 8 

64. 1 

65. 8 

66. 4 

68. 3 

74. 0 

77. 3 

83. 2 

87. 3 

93. 4 

97. 2 

102. 7 

107. 5 

114. 0 

123. 9 

129. 8 

135. 9 

156. 4 

193. 8 

211. 3 

PERIOD 

... 

... 

23. ..1 . 

-8. 1 

23. 3 

4 . 9 

2 . 7 

8 . 2 

-3. 8 

1.4 

4 . 5 

-2. 8 

1.6 

5 . 2 

3 . 3 

7 . 8 

9 . 1 

0 . 2 

8 . 4 

4 . 9 

4 . 2 

8 . 2 

3 . 1 

5 . 9 

8 . 2 

3 . 5 

9 . 2 

27. 0 

11. 7 

10. 4 

PERIOD 

33. 6 

37. 8 

34. 3 

33. 3 

27. 9 

31. 1 

34. 5 

30. 7 

36. 1 

50. 5 

51. 1 

45. 2 

44. 3 

59. 0 

84. 0 

85. 1 

81. 0 

83. 0 

99. 5 

95. 8 

96. 9 

84. 5 

113. 1 

155. 1 

129. 5 

123. 3 

160. 5 

185. 5 

145. 6 

64. 8 

138. 0 

Annual 

... 

... 

... 39. 1 

48. 9 

45. 4 

52. 8 

55. 0 

59. 1 

62. 4 

61. 4 

62. 0 

63. 9 

64. 5 

65. 4 

67. 9 

71. 4 

76. 2 

82. 2 

85. 5 

91. 7 

96. 1 

100. 0 

105. 6 

111. 5 

119. 6 

127. 1 

133. 2 

148. 9 

182. 6 

204. 7 

... 

... 

... 

2 . ..7 . 

3 . 0 

14. 5 

1.4 

12. 2 

-1. 1 

-0. 3 

2 . 4 

1.6 

2 . 5 

2 . 2 

3 . 2 

8 . 1 

5 . 8 

6 . 0 

6 . 3 

6 . 0 

4 . 4 

5 . 2 

4 . 3 

7 . 2 

7 . 5 

4 . 8 

6 . 3 

18. 7 

19. 6 

9 . 8 

... 36. 1 

36. 8 

33. 1 

29. 5 

29. 6 

34. 4 

29. 9 

33. 8 

44. 3 

52. 3 

46. 7 

49. 0 

51. 5 

70. 5 

85. 2 

87. 8 

81. 9 

92. 5 

98. 7 

92. 9 

93. 7 

100. 0 

141. 3 

139. 9 

123. 9 

145. 8 

186. 1 

160. 9 

94. 7 

118. 3 

'Percent changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month of the span. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 

130 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947 . . . 

194B . . . 

1949 . . . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1*55.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961. . . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964 . . . 

1965 . . . 

15*66. . . 

1967.. . 

196b.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945 . . . 

1946 . . . 

1947. . . 

1948 . . . 

1949. . . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953 . . . 

19b4 . . . 

ly55.. . 

1956.. . 

1957 . . . 

1958 . . . 

1959.. . 

I960 . . . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968. . . 

1969.. . 

1970 . . . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

19. 8 

21. 1 

22. 0 

29. 8 

36. 1 

33. 8 

30. 3 

4U. 9 

51. 4 

54. 8 

43. 9 

57. 4 

57. 8 

61. 8 

74. 6 

71. 2 

80. 1 

99. 2 

102. 6 

93. 8 

101. 5 

114. 4 

115. 5 

109. 8 

116. 9 

147. 0 

139. 1 

103. 0 

9 . 0 

9 . 6 

18. 4 

13. 6 

15. 7 

26. 7 

30. 7 

28. 4 

32. 3 

54. 1 

92. 1 

135. 8 

117. 7 

91. 1 

111. 1 

109. 2 

110. 3 

88. 3 

123. 8 

134. 7 

144. 6 

115. 7 

117. 8 

138. 9 

110. 3 

105. 1 

13^ 5 

21. 6 

24. 4 

24. 5 

22. 4 

22. 3 

35. 1 

37. 0 

41. 8 

68. 0 

67. 4 

77. 7 

99. 4 

94. 3 

120. 5 

149. 0 

158. 1 

155. 8 

141. 4 

123. 1 

125. 9 

38. 1 

105. 4 

111. 8 

152. 8 

135. 7 

127. 7 

159. 1 

157. 8 

162. 0 

Feb. 

18. 4 

19. 8 

21. 8 

32. 6 

35. 9 

33. 0 

31. 5 

4 2.^4 

51. 2 

52. 5 

44. 5 

58. 8 

55. 1 

64. 1 

75. 0 

70. 7 

80. 3 

99. 8 

102. 4 

96. 7 

94. 7 

114. 2 

113. 6 

108. 5 

119. 9 

145. 0 

141. 0 

111. 3 

9 . 0 

10. 3 

18. 2 

13. 3 

16. 4 

26. 5 

29. 8 

27. 6 

32. 3 

54. 1 

92. 1 

135. 8 

116. 8 

87. 4 

113. 0 

107. 4 

112. 3 

93. 6 

125. 3 

136. 0 

140. 6 

123. 6 

126. 1 

136. 4 

110. 6 

112. 5 

14. 9 

20. 6 

23. 3 

22. 8 

21. 0 

24. 5 

37. 0 

37. 0 

41. 1 

68. 0 

65. 7 

84. 1 

89. 1 

94. 3 

125. 5 

157. 4 

175. 1 

150. 7 

132. 3 

119. 4 

121. 2 

101. 4 

103. 2 

126. 0 

148. 6 

139. 3 

130. 1 

158. 1 

152. 1 

122. 8 

Mar. Apr. May June July 

743 . CANADA--INDEX OF STOCK PRICES 

18. 4 

19. 3 

21. 8 

31. 9 

35. 2 

33. 0 

31. 9 

42. 1 

55. 0 

53. 4 

45. 4 

59. 1 

53. 4 

67. 2 

76. 0 

70. 7 

81. 9 

101 . to 

99. 7 

97. 2 

91. 7 

111. 3 

115. 9 

111. 2 

121. 0 

143. 3 

145. 4 

109. 8 

7 

8^2 

10. 6 

16. 7 

12. 9 

16. 7 

27. 9 

29. 8 

28. 4 

33. 3 

56. 0 

93. 0 

133. 9 

115. 8 

90. 3 

115. 0 

104. 5 

110. 6 

94. 6 

124. 3 

136. 2 

137. 8 

124. 7 

130. 5 

142. 3 

108. 2 

120. 3 

7 

14^5 

22. 0 

23. 5 

21. 3 

21. 6 

24. 8 

34. 8 

36. 1 

42. 9 

75. 6 

69. 5 

93. 5 

82. 9 

94. 3 

122. 1 

164. 3 

183. 7 

151. 3 

126. 7 

124. 5 

116. 3 

96. 9 

111. 8 

135. 8 

145. 7 

136. 8 

140. 3 

168. 8 

139. 4 

131. 1 

20. 0 

19. 3 

23. 3 

32. 8 

34. 8 

31. 1 

33. 8 

43. 1 

56. 1 

56. 0 

44. 6 

53. 7 

55. 1 

69. 6 

74. 9 

73. 9 

86. 6 

102. 8 

101. 5 

98. 9 

98. 0 

114. 0 

112. 6 

111. 3 

116. 4 

142. 7 

135. 5 

112. 6 

4 5 . WEST 

8 ! 3 

10. 5 

16. 4 

12. 9 

16. 5 

30. 7 

30. 3 

28. 4 

35. 2 

58. 0 

97. 8 

136. 8 

112. 1 

93. 0 

113. 0 

104. 5 

108. 0 

93. 8 

129. 9 

137. 0 

137. 3 

121. 4 

134. 8 

142. 1 

111. 8 

124. 6 

(1967=100 ) 

2l! 6 

19. 1 

24. 0 

32. 6 

33. 4 

30. 7 

35. 0 

44. 0 

54. 8 

58. 2 

46. 6 

58. 8 

56. 0 

73. 0 

71. 5 

76. 5 

90. 1 

104. 5 

97. 2 

99. 5 

99. 2 

119. 9 

97. 4 

107. 9 

124. 6 

135. 9 

122. 5 

116. 6 

GERMANY 

22. 2 

17. 8 

24. 4 

31. 7 

33. 8 

30. 0 

34. 8 

47. 4 

54. 6 

58. 1 

48. 8 

59. 1 

56. 3 

71. 6 

63. 2 

75. 2 

89. 8 

98. 8 

97. 4 

99. 6 

100. 1 

112. 0 

94. 1 

109. 7 

125. 8 

134. 7 

121. 8 

116. 7 

21. 6 

18. 9 

23. 1 

32. 1 

34. 6 

31. 1 

35. 0 

48. 9 

57. 5 

57. 3 

50. 3 

62. 1 

54. 5 

73. 7 

62. 4 

72. 8 

92. 6 

93. 7 

96. 6 

101. 5 

103. 7 

106. 7 

93. 5 

107. 0 

127. 3 

140. 3 

120. 2 

119. 5 

--INDEX OF STOCK 

(1967=100 ) 

8 ^ 

10. 8 

15. 3 

12. 8 

16. 8 

31. 0 

29. 3 

27. 6 

35. 2 

67. 5 

114. 0 

148. 1 

95. 9 

104. 5 

110. 1 

102. 6 

101. 1 

92. 4 

131. 4 

143. 8 

125. 2 

120. 8 

138. 5 

129. 8 

112. 2 

119. 3 

8 . 3 

11. 3 

14. 5 

12. 8 

17. 8 

31. 2 

28. 6 

27. 6 

37. 0 

73. 1 

137. 7 

140. 5 

89. 3 

101. 6 

108. 2 

101. 6 

96. 4 

90. 6 

134. 3 

144. 8 

119. 7 

119. 2 

135. 8 

128. 2 

108. 2 

114. 6 

4 6 . FRANCE—INDEX OF STOC 

14'.1 

20. 5 

23. 3 

21. 7 

21. 4 

25. 2 

34. 8 

35. 9 

45. 4 

76. 6 

72. 6 

95. 4 

83. 8 

100. 1 

129. 7 

165. 0 

183. 8 

145. 5 

126. 7 

123. 0 

112. 7 

94. 4 

116. 0 

134. 4 

140. 3 

137. 0 

146. 9 

174. 8 

148. 7 

141. 8 

(1967=100 ) 

17i 3 

20. 5 

22. 0 

20. 9 

21. 4 

25. 2 

32. 9 

36. 1 

47. 8 

67. 4 

73. 3 

104. 2 

84. 8 

107. 0 

132. 3 

165. 9 

167. 5 

141. 8 

120. 2 

121. 2 

109. 2 

98. 2 

109. 9 

142. 1 

135. 8 

.140. 8 

155. 4 

179. 5 

132. 5 

130. 2 

18. 0 

23. 0 

21. 4 

20. 9 

22. 3 

26. 2 

35. 9 

37. 0 

46. 7 

68. 4 

76. 6 

108. 2 

80. 8 

107. 0 

138. 2 

160. 9 

158. 5 

137. 7 

112. 8 

115. 6 

108. 8 

96. 7 

105. 7 

129. 8 

132. 5 

140. 0 

147. 1 

173. 4 

121. 7 

126. 6 

8 . 3 

11. 8 

14. 2 

12. 9 

19. 2 

32. 1 

28. 2 

29. 4 

38. 0 

80. 7 

140. 5 

130. 0 

85. 4 

102. 6 

110. 1 

100. 6 

90. 9 

92. 1 

136. 8 

138. 7 

117. 6 

119. 8 

134. 4 

120. 0 

103. 2 

117. 5 

'K PRICES 

19^2 

23. 3 

24. 1 

22. 0 

20. 5 

25. 8 

35. 9 

37. 6 

50. 7 

71. 2 

83. 6 

117. 5 

79. 4 

113. 6 

142. 3 

152. 4 

163. 8 

144. 6 

128. 0 

112. 1 

106. 5 

92. 9 

101. 4 

126. 7 

136. 5 

141. 2 

155. 6 

166. 7 

123. 5 

131. 3 

Aug. 

© 

20. 9 

19. 6 

25. 7 

33. 8 

34. 8 

31. 3 

36. 3 

48. 9 

59. 3 

52. 1 

52. 2 

60. 5 

56. 3 

76. 0 

66. 1 

71. 6 

92. 2 

96. 7 

91. 7 

103. 7 

103. 0 

106. 4 

95. 6 

107. 6 

135. 2 

144. 6 

114. 6 

116. 3 

PRICES 

8 ! 7 

12. 5 

14. 2 

13. 6 

19. 7 

32. 9 

27. 5 

29. 4 

41. 8 

92. 1 

170. 0 

117. 7 

89. 3 

107. 4 

113. 0 

102. 6 

91. 8 

104. 2 

137. 5 

144. 1 

122. 3 

120. 0 

138. 9 

119. 2 

104. 5 

119. 7 

<§> 

19! 6 

26. 0 

24. 1 

23. 0 

21. 6 

28. 8 

36. 1 

38. 4 

55. 6 

71. 2 

81. 1 

117. 5 

80. 8 

117. 0 

149. 0 

153. 3 

162. 3 

150. 3 

128. 6 

116. 3 

107. 2 

98. 2 

104. 3 

132. 9 

138. 2 

135. 2 

162. 0 

163. 9 

113. 9 

136. 9 

Sept. 

20. 9 

19. 8 

27. 0 

35. 9 

33. 8 

29. 4 

37. 1 

51. 4 

56. 5 

48. 6 

53. 2 

56. 2 

56. 2 

75. 8 

64. 5 

74. 6 

93. 5 

99. 0 

86. 6 

104. 4 

106. 0 

110. 2 

99. 3 

106. 5 

133. 5 

146. 9 

100. 8 

113. 1 

® 

9!i 13. 6 

14. 9 

14. 5 

21. 0 

33. 1 

27. 9 

29. 4 

45. 6 

83. 5 

151. 0 

117. 7 

83. 5 

107. 4 

112. 1 

102. 6 

95. 6 

108. 4 

133. 8 

145. 5 

117. 3 

113. 1 

134. 4 

115. 8 

99. 4 

115. 7 

2 0 ! 5 

26. 3 

26. 2 

23. 0 

22. 6 

30. 5 

34. 8 

39. 3 

59. 2 

75. 2 

80. 8 

110. 7 

83. 8 

117. 0 

140. 5 

148. 3 

163. 5 

142. 9 

121. 2 

115. 2 

100. 4 

108. 9 

103. 9 

133. 3 

135. 0 

128. 1 

163. 1 

164. 6 

96. 8 

134. 0 

Oct. 

21'. 6 

20. 9 

27. 7 

36. 7 

31. 9 

29. 2 

37. 1 

48. 0 

54. 4 

44. 2 

55. 0 

56. 1 

53. 9 

72. 7 

62. 4 

75. 4 

96. 2 

99. 8 

84. 8 

102. 6 

108. 6 

110. 2 

101. 3 

97. 7 

132. 3 

156. 2 

100. 9 

107. 2 

9 ! 3 

14. 9 

14. 0 

15. 2 

22. 6 

30. 6 

28. 4 

29. 4 

49. 4 

81. 7 

144. 4 

124. 4 

82. 7 

105. 4 

106. 4 

99. 8 

93. 0 

109. 9 

136. 7 

151. 5 

114. 8 

108. 7 

130. 8 

117. 7 

95. 8 

119. 0 

2216 

25. 1 

27. 6 

22. 4 

21. 9 

31. 1 

34. 7 

39. 4 

61. 4 

71. 2 

80. 8 

101. 9 

82. 0 

125. 5 

135. 5 

149. 0 

155. 2 

139. 1 

123. 5 

112. 0 

99. 4 

107. 9 

102. 4 

142. 1 

136. 8 

118. 4 

163. 8 

167. 3 

103. 8 

135. 9 

Nov. 

22. 0 

21. 8 

27. 7 

34. 6 

32. 8 

29. 7 

39. 2 

49. 3 

52. 5 

44. 2 

55. 8 

56. 4 

56. 2 

74. 1 

66. 4 

74. 8 

97. 6 

100. 7 

87. 0 

100. 7 

109. 2 

114. 6 

99. 8 

97. 3 

133. 0 

149. 2 

98. 9 

107. 3 

9!o 

16. 2 

13. 6 

15. 4 

23. 5 

29. 4 

27. 8 

30. 4 

49. 4 

84. 5 

139. 7 

128. 2 

97. 8 

101. 6 

106. 4 

96. 9 

89. 8 

115. 7 

133. 8 

156. 7 

109. 6 

105. 2 

132. 3 

112. 1 

96. 9 

126. 3 

22^8 

26. 0 

25. 5 

21. 0 

21. 6 

30. 1 

34. 1 

38. 9 

68. 5 

67. 7 

71. 2 

103. 8 

81. 5 

132. 3 

142. 3 

159. 2 

164. 3 

133. 4 

126. 3 

110. 9 

106. 3 

105. 3 

104. 3 

139. 8 

133. 8 

124. 1 

153. 1 

151. 9 

103. 3 

141. 1 

Dec. 

2l! 6 

21. 8 

27. 9 

34. 8 

32. 8 

29. 4 

40. 6 

49. 9 

53. 5 

43. 8 

55. 2 

59. 1 

58. 3 

75. 0 

68. 0 

76. 3 

94. 8 

98. 0 

88. 7 

101. 1 

112. 4 

114. 2 

104. 7 

108. 8 

140. 4 

136. 8 

92. 8 

105. 9 

9 ! l 

16. 5 

13. 4 

15. 3 

25. 0 

30. 6 

28. 2 

30. 4 

51. 2 

90. 3 

138. 7 

122. 4 

94. 0 

105. 4 

109. 2 

95. 9 

89. 8 

117. 0 

130. 9 

151. 0 

108. 6 

112. 8 

131. 5 

105. 6 

101. 0 

128. 4 

2 ^ 8 

23. 5 

25. 3 

21. 9 

19. 9 

31. 2 

34. 8 

38. 9 

73. 1 

69. 5 

78. 0 

99. 0 

81. 5 

133. 0 

138. 2 

163. 4 

159. 1 

133. 7 

126. 0 

115. 5 

101. 4 

101. 5 

107. 4 

145. 3 

135. 5 

123. 7 

149. 3 

151. 7 

106. 5 

139. 6 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

18. 9 

20. 1 

21. 9 

31. 4 

35. 7 

, 33. 3 

31. 2 

41. 8 

52. 5 

53. 6 

44. 6 

58. 4 

55. 4 

64. 4 

75. 2 

70. 9 

80. 8 

100. 2 

101. 6 

95. 9 

96. 0 

113. 3 

115. 0 

109. 8 

| 119. 3 

145. 1 

141. 8 

108. 0 

8.7 

10. 2 

17. 8 

13. 3 

16. 3 

27. 0 

30. 1 

28. 1 

32. 6 

54. 7 

92. 4 

135. 2 

116. 8 

89. 6 

113. 0 

107. 0 

111. 1 

92. 2 

124. 5 

135. 6 

141. 0 

121. 3 

124. 8 

139. 2 

109. 7 

112. 6 

14. 3 

21. 4 

23. 7 

22. 9 

21. 7 

23. 9 

35. 6 

36. 7 

41. 9 

70. 5 

67. 5 

85. 1 

90. 5 

94. 3 

122. 7 

156. 9 

172. 3 

152. 6 

133. 5 

122. 3 

121. 1 

98. 8 

106. 8 

124. 5 

149. 0 

137. 3 

132. 7 

162. 0 

149. 8 

138. 6 

II Q I II Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

21. 3 

18. 7 

23. 9 

32. 4 

34. 0 

30. 6 

34. 5 

44. 8 

55. 2 

57. 4 

46. 7 

58. 9 

55. 8 

71. 4 

69. 9 

75. 2 

88. 8 

102. 0 

98. 7 

99. 3 

99. 1 

115. 3 

101. 4 

109. 6 

122. 3 

137. 8 

126. 6 

115. 3 

21. 1 

19. 4 

25. 3 

33. 9 

34. 4 

30. 6 

36. 1 

49. 7 

57. 8 

52. 7 

51. 9 

59. 6 

55. 7 

75. 2 

64. 3 

73. 0 

92. 8 

96. 5 

91. 6 

103. 2 

104. 2 

107. 8 

96. 1 

107. 0 

132. 0 

143. 9 

111. 9 

116. 3 

AVERAGE FOR 

8 i 3 

10. 9 

15. 4 

12. 8 

17. 0 

31. 0 

29. 4 

27. 9 

35. 8 

66. 2 

116. 5 

141. 8 

99. 1 

99. 7 

110. 4 

102. 9 

101. 8 

92. 3 

131. 9 

141. 9 

127. 4 

120. 5 

136. 4 

133. 4 

110. 7 

119. 5 

8 . 7 

12. 6 

14. 4 

13. 7 

20. 0 

32. 7 

27. 9 

29. 4 

41. 8 

85. 4 

153. 8 

121. 8 

86. 1 

105. 8 

111. 7 

101. 9 

92. 8 

101. 6 

136. 0 

142. 8 

119. 1 

117. 6 

135. 9 

118. 3 

102. 4 

117. 6 

AVERAGE FOR 

le'.h 

21. 3 

22. 2 

21. 2 

21. 7 

25. 5 

34. 5 

36. 3 

46. 6 

70. 8 

74. 2 

102. 6 

83. 1 

104. 7 

133. 4 

163. 9 

169. 9 

141. 7 

119. 9 

119. 9 

110. 2 

96. 4 

110. 5 

135. 4 

136. 2 

139. 3 

149. 8 

175. 9 

134. 3 

132. 9 

19. 8 

25. 2 

24. 8 

22. 7 

21. 6 

28. 4 

35. 6 

38. 4 

55. 2 

72. 5 

81. 8 

115. 2 

81. 3 

115. 9 

143. 9 

151. 3 

163. 2 

145. 9 

125. 9 

114. 5 

104. 7 

100. 0 

103. 2 

131. 0 

136. 6 

134. 8 

160. 2 

165. 1 

111. 4 

134. 1 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

21. 7 

21. 5 

27. 8 

35. 4 

32. 5 

29. 4 

39. 0 

49. 1 

53. 5 

44. 1 

55. 3 

57. 2 

56. 1 

73. 9 

65. 6 

75. 5 

96. 2 

99. 5 

86. 8 

101. 5 

110. 1 

113. 0 

101. 9 

101. 3 

135. 2 

147. 4 

97. 5 

106. 8 

PERIOD 

9 . 1 

15. 9 

13. 7 

15. 3 

23. 7 

30. 2 

28. 1 

30. 1 

50. 0 

85. 5 

140. 9 

125. 0 

91. 5 

104. 1 

107. 3 

97. 5 

90. 9 

114. 2 

133. 8 

153. 1 

111. 0 

108. 9 

131. 5 

111. 8 

97. 9 

124. 6 

PERIOD 

23! 5 

24. 9 

26. 1 

21. 8 

21. 1 

30. 8 

34. 5 

39. 1 

67. 7 

69. 5 

76. 7 

101. 6 

81. 7 

130. 3 

138. 7 

157. 2 

159. 5 

135. 4 

125. 3 

112. 8 

102. 4 

104. 9 

104. 7 

142. 4 

135. 4 

122. 1 

155. 4 

157. 0 

104. 5 

138. 9 

Annual 

20. 8 

19. 9 

24. 7 

33. 3 

34. 2 

31. 0 

35. 2 

46. 4 

54. 7 

51. 9 

49. 6 

58. 5 

! 55. 8 

71. 2 

68. 8 

73. 6 

89. 6 

99. 6 

94. 7 

100. 0 

102. 3 

112. 3 

103. 6 

106. 9 

127. 2 

143. 6 

119. 5 

111. 6 

k'.i 12. 4 

15. 3 

13. 8 

19. 2 

30. 2 

28. 9 

28. 9 

40. 1 

73. 0 

125. 9 

130. 9 

98. 4 

99. 8 

110. 6 

102. 4 

99. 1 

100. 0 

131. 5 

143. 3 

124. 6 

[ 117. 1 

132. 2 

1 125. 7 

105. 2 

118. 6 

18^5 

23. 2 

24. 2 

| 22. 1 

21. 5 

27. 1 

35. 1 

37. 6 

52. 8 

70. 8 

75. 0 

101. 1 

84. 2 

111. 3 

134. 7 

157. 3 

166. 2 

143. 9 

126. 1 

117. 4 

109. 6 

100. 0 

106. 3 

133. 3 

139. 3 

133. 4 

149. 5 

165. 0 

125. 0 

136. 1 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

194U.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

I960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

26. 3 

24. 7 

25. 4 

28. 3 

39. 0 

36. 9 

52. 7 

57. 2 

58. 2 

61. 7 

75. 3 

121. 5 

157. 7 

152. 4 

131. 3 

110. 7 

82. 6 

109. 1 

105. 4 

99. 2 

99. 6 

115. 7 

91. 1 

78. 1 

82. 7 

106. 2 

71. 4 

2 . 8 

8 . 6 

7 . 0 

7 . 6 

12. 6 

29. 4 

25. 6 

26. 2 

30. 2 

40. 6 

35. 8 

47. 8 

66. 0 

101. 6 

104. 2 

101. 7 

90. 7 

89. 5 

101. 4 

101. 4 

96. 6 

129. 2 

167. 1 

145. 3 

194. 8 

387. 2 

293. 4 

249. 9 

14. 7 

19. 6 

16. 5 

16. 1 

16. 7 

18. 4 

23. 1 

26. 3 

28. 5 

27. 7 

38. 7 

48. 0 

49. 4 

44. 7 

60. 5 

63. 1 

65. 0 

75. 1 

70. 8 

83. 2 

93. 7 

101. 5 

91. 9 

103. 4 

111. 0 

98. 2 

101. 7 

112. 4 

128. 8 

104. 5 

78. 9 

Feb. 

27. 9 

24. 4 

26. 4 

29. 6 

38. 4 

38. 2 

53. 2 

57. 8 

61. 3 

61. 9 

78. 1 

119. 6 

167. 2 

151. 6 

121. 4 

104. 7 

88. 3 

113. 6 

104. 6 

96. 9 

98. 5 

115. 6 

93. 8 

75. 7 

84. 3 

108. 5 

79. 4 

4 . 1 

8 . 2 

7 . 5 

8 . 5 

13. 4 

30. 7 

25. 5 

26. 5 

30. 4 

40. 6 

37. 4 

49. 8 

69. 7 

102. 5 

109. 0 

105. 3 

90. 8 

87. 9 

104. 8 

104. 4 

98. 6 

130. 7 

164. 7 

151. 0 

203. 8 

364. 0 

308. 0 

271. 3 

15. 2 

19. 7 

17. 2 

15. 3 

16. 1 

18. 7 

23. 9 

25. 8 

28. 1 

28. 3 

40. 0 

48. 3 

47. 3 

44. 9 

59. 6 

60. 7 

67. 6 

76. 4 

71. 7 

84. 2 

94. 4 

100. 8 

95. 0 

98. 7 

110. 4 

94. 8 

105. 6 

114. 5 

124. 2 

101. 7 

87. 1 

Mar. Apr. May June 

747 . ITALY—INDEX OF STOCK 

27! 3 

23. 2 

27. 1 

30. 2 

36. 7 

38. 2 

50. 7 

56. 0 

61. 8 

60. 9 

82. 0 

117. 6 

164. 2 

153. 8 

119. 3 

98. 8 

98. 4 

115. 6 

94. 5 

98. 7 

100. 5 

115. 9 

93. 4 

73. 7 

93. 0 

111. 9 

81. 7 

7 

4 . 9 

10. 1 

7 . 2 

9 . 1 

12. 9 

25. 5 

23. 8 

25. 1 

31. 4 

40. 2 

37. 4 

52. 5 

72. 8 

108. 0 

105. 0 

109. 1 

87. 6 

83. 2 

109. 5 

103. 9 

98. 7 

131. 9 

171. 9 

161. 0 

214. 5 

363. 2 

303. 5 

283, 7 

1 9 . I 

15. 2 

19. 1 

16. 5 

15. 6 

16. 2 

18. 9 

23. 5 

25. 9 

28. 3 

28. 9 

39. 7 

51. 7 

47. 9 

45. 8 

61. 1 

59. 9 

69. 8 

76. 5 

71. 4 

85. 7 

94. 5 

96. 7 

97. 3 

96. 9 

108. 0 

96. 4 

108. 3 

117. 1 

122. 3 

106. 0 

91. 1 

26. 5 

23. 9 

25. 6 

28. 6 

34. 8 

36. 3 

50. 4 

53. 3 

61. 5 

60. 1 

89. 8 

121. 9 

164. 8 

147. 9 

123. 8 

89. 6 

97. 2 

106. 6 

95. 3 

100. 8 

112. 3 

120. 0 

88. 6 

78. 8 

96. 7 

116. 1 

78. 4 

(1967=100 ) 

... ... 23. 9 21. 9 

23. 0 22. 4 

25. 7 25. 4 

28. 3 29. 3 

35. 5 35. 1 

37. 4 38. 0 

51. 8 55. 8 

54. 7 52. 1 

62. 9 64. 2 

60. 8 59. 5 

91. 3 94. 5 

126. 8 143. 6 

174. 9 179. 0 

149. 2 138. 7 

123. 9 128. 6 

95. 6 86. 7 

95. 4 90. 7 

105. 9 106. 3 

98. 0 96. 4 

100. 1 98. 4 

113. 4 111. 1 

112. 0 106. 4 

84. 7 83. 1 

79. 5 78. 0 

109. 2 125. 0 

106. 1 96. 6 

77. 4 72. 9 

4 8 . JAPAN—INDEX OF STOCK 

4^9 

10. 6 

6 . 6 

8 . 6 

13. 6 

23. 2 

23. 4 

24. 9 

33. 4 

41. 6 

38. 6 

53. 4 

76. 2 

115. 7 

98. 3 

113. 3 

86. 3 

81. 1 

109. 2 

101. 5 

102. 3 

137. 0 

171. 3 

170. 6 

229. 9 

344. 2 

304. 7 

290. 1 

(1967=100 ) 

V.l V.i 12. 2 11. 4 

6 . 9 6. 4 

8 . 8 9. 4 

15. 0 16. 6 

24. 9 24. 1 

23. 2 23. 8 

24. 8 25. 1 

34. 0 35. 6 

38. 7 37. 1 

39. 7 40. 7 

54. 9 57. 1 

74. 5 73. 6 

118. 6 117. 4 

99. 4 100. 9 

111. 2 109. 9 

91. 2 93. 7 

80. 8 77. 2 

110. 4 107. 3 

105. 0 105. 1 

106. 0 108. 5 

142. 4 144. 1 

147. 9 148. 8 

172. 2 181. 9 

241. 3 256. 6 

339. 2 338. 2 

303. 0 305. 6 

298. 2 296. 6 

NDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 

15. 5 

20. 3 

15. 9 

16. 8 

16. 2 

19. 4 

23. 8 

25. 8 

26. 9 

30. 1 

41. 1 

52. 3 

49. 0 

46. 1 

62. 1 

60. 6 

71. 6 

74. 0 

74. 8 

87. 0 

95. 7 

99. 6 

98. 9 

104. 1 

110. 2 

93. 5 

112. 1 

118. 4 

120. 0 

100. 6 

92. 2 

(1967=100 ) 

16. 1 16. 4 

20. 3 20. 2 

15. 6 16. 1 

17. 6 18. 3 

16. 1 15. 2 

20. 1 20. 4 

23. 9 23. 4 

25. 8 26. 5 

27. 0 26. 1 

31. 3 31. 5 

40. 9 43. 3 

50. 6 50. 3 

50. 9 51. 7 

47. 5 48. 7 

63. 0 62. 5 

60. 1 62. 3 

72. 3 71. 4 

68. 5 60. 5 

76. 3 76. 3 

87. 8 87. 3 

97. 1 92. 5 

94. 4 93. 6 

100. 7 99. 5 

106. 5 109. 4 

113. 8 107. 8 

82. 7 82. 2 

110. 6 108. 5 

117. 1 117. 5 

116. 6 113. 9 

97. 5 97. 7 

98. 0 100. 5 

July 

PRICES 

22. 9 

21. 5 

25. 6 

30. 4 

36. 2 

40. 3 

59. 7 

54. 0 

62. 8 

60. 1 

102. 3 

149. 9 

165. 7 

136. 6 

124. 4 

84. 8 

88. 5 

108. 0 

95. 7 

100. 3 

108. 2 

103. 1 

83. 1 

80. 4 

118. 1 

90. 5 

66. 1 

PRICES 

4 . 5 

10. 2 

6 . 8 

9 . 3 

17. 8 

25. 4 

24. 1 

25. 2 

35. 2 

35. 1 

40. 4 

58. 9 

78. 0 

126. 4 

103. 2 

106. 0 

94. 5 

74. 0 

105. 0 

105. 1 

113. 4 

141. 4 

149. 6 

190. 1 

273. 0 

354. 8 

295. 0 

292. 8 

Aug. 

© 

23. 8 

23. 4 

26. 3 

31. 4 

37. 8 

41. 8 

63. 5 

57. 4 

64. 5 

61. 9 

110. 9 

176. 6 

166. 4 

137. 2 

120. 8 

84. 1 

92. 8 

108. 7 

98. 6 

101. 7 

112. 3 

107. 1 

82. 0 

80. 5 

105. 2 

88. 0 

64. 2 

® 

4 ! 5 

11. 4 

7 . 6 

9 . 9 

18. 2 

28. 4 

24. 0 

26. 7 

35. 5 

36. 2 

41. 4 

61. 1 

80. 4 

120. 4 

99. 9 

96. 7 

91. 2 

82. 5 

104. 5 

97. 9 

118. 7 

138. 7 

150. 6 

179. 1 

289. 8 

351. 1 

270. 4 

280. 3 

Sept. 

23. 7 

23. 7 

26. 8 

31. 9 

36. 1 

42. 7 

64. 9 

56. 1 

64. 9 

63. 2 

104. 2 

189. 4 

158. 8 

131. 6 

115. 9 

92. 9 

91. 5 

107. 5 

102. 7 

100. 7 

112. 8 

102. 9 

78. 0 

79. 0 

106. 5 

76. 3 

64. 1 

4 . 1 

11. 8 

7 . 6 

10. 4 

18. 3 

30. 4 

25. 0 

27. 3 

34. 5 

37. 6 

41. 6 

63. 2 

84. 7 

109. 2 

95. 2 

95. 2 

89. 0 

88. 6 

102. 7 

95. 0 

128. 4 

146. 6 

147. 7 

169. 9 

299. 9 

333. 0 

260. 9 

270. 6 

COMMON STOCKS ' <§> 

16. 1 

19. 6 

17. 2 

17. 9 

16. 1 

18. 9 

23. 9 

27. 3 

26. 4 

32. 8 

46. 4 

53. 1 

52. 8 

50. 0 

65. 0 

60. 7 

71. 2 

62. 0 

75. 1 

90. 5 

92. 4 

93. 4 

101. 2 

109. 1 

103. 0 

82. 4 

107. 7 

116. 6 

115. 1 

90. 1 

100. 6 

16. 1 

19. 3 

16. 8 

17. 3 

16. 6 

20. 0 

24. 9 

27. 4 

26. 5 

33. 4 

46. 2 

52. 7 

49. 9 

51. 9 

64. 6 

61. 5 

73. 7 

63. 7 

77. 2 

89. 2 

94. 1 

87. 7 

102. 8 

106. 7 

102. 4 

84. 8 

105. 8 

120. 8 

112. 9 

82. 7 

93. 2 

17. 2 

16. 4 

16. 4 

17. 1 

16. 9 

20. 8 

25. 5 

27. 0 

25. 3 

34. 2 

48. 2 

51. 0 

47. 8 

53. 3 

62. 1 

59. 6 

73. 2 

63. 1 

79. 2 

90. 7 

97. 2 

84. 6 

104. 2 

110. 2 

102. 8 

89. 8 

108. 1 

119. 0 

114. 9 

74. 1 

92. 1 

Oct. 

23. 6 

26. 0 

27. 0 

33. 6 

37. 6 

44. 2 

63. 4 

56. 1 

64. 0 

65. 4 

104. 0 

171. 2 

164. 2 

120. 4 

111. 6 

93. 0 

91. 1 

110. 1 

105. 9 

96. 9 

120. 0 

101. 1 

78. 1 

80. 6 

109. 0 

73. 7 

60. 2 

4 . 3 

10. 4 

7 . 5 

11. 5 

21. 0 

30. 8 

24. 1 

28. 4 

35. 1 

36. 6 

42. 7 

66. 2 

88. 1 

96. 9 

89. 6 

95. 5 

85. 8 

87. 2 

101. 7 

96. 8 

127. 8 

150. 5 

145. 5 

165. 9 

309. 1 

324. 9 

239. 3 

279. 3 

17. 9 

16. 0 

16. 8 

17. 6 

17. 3 

21. 6 

25. 4 

26. 4 

26. 1 

35. 0 

45. 8 

50. 3 

44. 9 

55. 4 

62. 0 

58. 4 

74. 0 

61. 1 

79. 4 

92. 3 

99. 4 

83. 9 

104. 1 

112. 9 

103. 9 

91. 8 

105. 8 

119. 2 

118. 9 

75. 5 

96. 3 

Nov. 

23. 3 

26. 1 

27. 1 

35. 7 

37. 4 

45. 8 

62. 1 

56. 7 

65. 0 

69. 1 

111. 5 

154. 3 

165. 7 

127. 5 

116. 2 

90. 0 

91. 0 

106. 8 

103. 1 

93. 7 

120. 7 

95. 9 

75. 1 

85. 7 

107. 7 

79. 3 

58. 9 

5 . 2 

9 . 4 

7 . 8 

11. 3 

23. 8 

30. 1 

22. 9 

28. 4 

37. 7 

35. 7 

44. 0 

67. 2 

91. 5 

97. 6 

99. 3 

92. 2 

85. 7 

93. 0 

100. 6 

93. 8 

122. 6 

155. 6 

145. 3 

167. 5 

327. 4 

313. 0 

244. 7 

285. 8 

18. 5 

16. 0 

16. 6 

16. 6 

17. 5 

21. 6 

24. 7 

27. 2 

26. 7 

36. 4 

48. 9 

49. 8 

43. 9 

57. 1 

62. 3 

60. 3 

77. 3 

65. 3 

79. 0 

92. 9 

100. 2 

88. 1 

100. 8 

114. 7 

104. 7 

91. 7 

100. 9 

125. 2 

111. 0 

78. 0 

98. 0 

Dec. 

23. 7 

24. 9 

26. 9 

36. 3 

37. 5 

48. 4 

58. 8 

58. 1 

01. 3 

71. 0 

115. 4 

143. 6 

155. 0 

136. 8 

116. 1 

85. 8 

98. 4 

106. 9 

99. 9 

98. 7 

115. 2 

94. 5 

77. 0 

65. 0 

96. 9 

72. 3 

61. 0 

6 . 9 

8 . 0 

7 . 2 

11. 3 

25. 3 

29. 1 

23. 9 

29. 0 

39. 1 

34. 8 

45. 9 

65. 3 

92. 6 

93. 4 

101. 4 

87. 3 

86. 0 

96. 7 

99. 0 

90. 1 

123. 2 

161. 4 

139. 8 

178. 2 

353. 5 

284. 9 

255. 2 

285. 8 

18.<* 

16. 5 

16. 3 

16. 5 

18. 0 

21. 5 

25. 5 

28. 3 

27. 0 

38. 0 

49. 4 

50. 5 

43. 9 

58. 2 

64. 2 

61. 8 

78. 0 

68. 1 

80. 7 

91. 3 

99. 8 

88. 5 

103. 7 

115. 8 

99. 1 

98. 0 

107. 9 

127. 8 

103. 1 

73. 0 

96. 5 

Quarterly 

IQ 

27. 2 

24. 1 

26. 3 

29. 4 

36. 0 

37. 8 

52. 2 

57. 0 

60. 4 

61. 5 

7o. 5 

119. 0 

163. 0 

152. 6 

124. 0 

104. 7 

89. 8 

112. 8 

101. 5 

98. 3 

99. 5 

115. 7 

92. 8 

75. 8 

86. 7 

106. 9 

77. 5 

3 . 9 

9 . 0 

7 . 2 

8 . 4 

13. 0 

28. 5 

25. 0 

25. 9 

30. 7 

40. 5 

36. 9 

50. 0 

69. 5 

104. 0 

106. 1 

105. 4 

89. 7 

86. 9 

105. 2 

103. 2 

98. 0 

130. 6 

167. 9 

152. 4 

204. 4 

371. 5 

301. 6 

268. 3 

15. 0 

19. 4 

16. 7 

15. 7 

16. 3 

18. 7 

23. 5 

26. 0 

28. 3 

28. 3 

39. 5 

49. 3 

48. 2 

45. 1 

60. 4 

61. 2 

67. 4 

76. 0 

71. 3 

84. 4 

94. 2 

99. 7 

94. 7 

99. 7 

109. 8 

96. 5 

105. 2 

114. 7 

125. 1 

104. 1 

85. 7 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

24. 1 

23. 1 

25. 0 

2b. 7 

35. 1 

37. 2 

52. 7 

53. 4 

62. 9 

60. 1 

yl. 9 

131. 4 

172. 9 

145. 3 

125. 4 

90. 6 

94. 4 

106. 3 

96. 6 

99. 6 

112. 3 

112. 8 

85. 5 

78. 8 

110. 3 

106. 3 

76. 2 

23. 5 

22. 9 

26. 2 

31. 2 

37. 4 

41. 6 

62. 7 

55. 6 

64. 1 

61. 7 

105. 6 

172. 0 

163. 6 

135. 1 

120. 4 

87. 3 

90. 9 

108. 1 

99. 0 

100. 9 

111. 1 

104. 4 

81. 0 

80. 0 

109. 9 

84. 9 

64. 8 

AVERAGE FOR 

4 . 5 

11. 4 

6 . 6 

8 . 9 

15. 1 

24. 1 

23. 5 

24. 9 

34. 3 

39. 1 

39. 7 

55. 1 

74. 8 

117. 2 

99. 5 

111. 5 

90. 4 

79. 7 

109. 0 

103. 9 

105. 6 

141. 2 

156. 0 

174. 9 

242. 6 

340. 5 

304. 4 

295. 0 

4 . 4 

11. 1 

7 . 3 

9 . 9 

18. 1 

26. 1 

24. 4 

26. 4 

35. 1 

36. 3 

41. 1 

61. 1 

81. 0 

118. 7 

99. 4 

99. 3 

91. 6 

81. 7 

104. 1 

99. 3 

120. 2 

142. 2 

149. 3 

179. 7 

287. 6 

346. 3 

275. 4 

281. 2 

AVERAGE FOR 

16. 0 

20. 3 

15. 9 

17. 5 

15. 8 

20. 0 

23. 7 

26. 1 

26. 7 

30. 9 

41. 8 

51. 1 

50. 5 

47. 4 

62. 6 

61. 0 

71. 8 

67. 7 

75. 8 

87. 4 

95. 1 

95. 9 

99. 7 

106. 6 

110. 6 

86. 2 

110. 4 

117. 7 

116. 8 

98. 6 

96. 9 

16. 5 

18. 4 

16. 8 

17. 4 

16. 5 

19. 9 

24. 8 

27. 2 

26. 1 

33. 5 

46. 9 

52. 3 

50. 2 

51. 7 

63. 9 

60. 6 

72. 7 

62. 9 

77. 2 

90. 2 

94. 6 

88. 6 

102. 7 

108. 7 

102. 8 

85. 7 

107. 2 

118. 8 

114. 3 

82. 3 

95. 3 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

23. 5 

25. 7 

27. 0 

35. 3 

37. 5 

46. 1 

61. 4 

57. 0 

63. 4 

68. 5 

110. 3 

156. 4 

162. 0 

128. 2 

115. 3 

89. 6 

93. 5 

106. 6 

103. 0 

96. 4 

118. 6 

97. 2 

76. 7 

84. 0 

104. 5 

75. 1 

60. 0 

PERIOD 

5 . 5 

9 . 3 

7 . 5 

11. 4 

23. 4 

30. 0 

23. 6 

28. 6 

37. 3 

35. 7 

44. 2 

66. 2 

90. 7 

96. 0 

96. 8 

91. 7 

85. 8 

92. 3 

100. 4 

93. 6 

124. 5 

155. 8 

143. 5 

170. 5 

330. 0 

307. 6 

246. 4 

283. 6 

PERIOD 

18. 4 

16. 2 

16. 6 

16. 9 

17. 6 

21. 6 

25. 2 

27. 3 

26. 6 

36. 5 

48. 0 

50. 2 

44. 2 

56. 9 

62. 8 

60. 2 

76. 4 

64. 9 

79. 7 

92. 2 

99. 8 

86. 8 

102. 8 

114. 5 

102. 6 

93. 8 

104. 9 

124. 0 

111. 0 

75. 5 

96. 9 

Annual 

24. 6 

23. 9 

26. 3 

31. 2 

37. 0 

40. 7 

57. 2 

55. 8 

62. 7 

1 63. 0 

96. 6 

144. 8 

165. 4 

140. 3 

121. 3 

93. 1 

92. 2 

108. 9 

100. 0 

98. 8 

110. 4 

107. 5 

84. 0 

79. 6 

102. 9 

93. 8 

69. 6 

4 . 6 

10. 2 

7 . 2 

9 . 6 

17. 4 

27. 7 

24. 1 

26. 5 

34. 3 

37. 9 

40. 5 

58. 1 

79. 0 

109. 0 

100. 4 

102. 0 

89. 4 

85. 1 

104. 7 

100. 0 

112. 1 

142. 5 

154. 2 

169. 4 

266. 1 

341. 5 

282. 0 

282. 0 

16. 5 

18. 6 

16. 5 

16. 9 

16. 6 

20. 0 

24. 3 

26. 6 

26. 9 

32. 3 

44. 0 

50. 7 

48. 3 

50. 3 

62. 4 

60. 8 

72. 1 

67. 9 

76. 0 

88. 5 

95. 9 

92. 7 

100. 0 

107. 4 

106. 4 

90. 5 

106. 9 

118. 8 

116. 8 

90. 1 

93. 7 

'This series has been converted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to a 1967 base to facilitate comparisons with the foreign stock price indexes. 

(1941-43=10) are shown in the Cyclical Indicators part of BCD and elsewhere in this supplement. 

Data as published by the source 

132 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945. .. 

1946. . . 

1947... 

1946.. . 

1949... 

1950. . . 

1951. .. 

1952. . . 

1953. . . 

1954. . . 

1955. . . 

195b.. . 

1957. . . 

195«.. . 

1959. . . 

19b0... 

1961. . . 

1962.. . 

1963... 

1964. . . 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969.. . 

1970... 

1971... 

1972.. . 

1973. .. 

1974. . . 

1975. . . 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

194b... 

1949.. . 

1950... 

1951. . . 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955.. . 

1956... 

1957... 

195b... 

1959. . . 

I960.. . 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966.. . 

1967... 

196b... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974. . . 

1975... 

1976. . . 

1945... 

1946.. . 

1947... 

194b... 

1949. . . 

1950.. . 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

195b... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

196b... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

54.6 

49.7 

54.4 

61.0 

59.3 

63.7 

5b.3 

6b.1 

71.3 

69.9 

63.8 

75.3 

75.5 

72.7 

b0.9 

«2.5 

b7.5 

94.5 

100.2 

95.6 

103.7 

112.6 

106.9 

110.1 

119.2 

132.b 

12b.9 

106.5 

Feb. 

53.7 

49.5 

55.1 

60.2 

59.8 

64.0 

59.0 

69.5 

70.7 

69.4 

64.2 

7b.3 

74.2 

73.4 

81.7 

83.4 

88.0 

94.7 

100.9 

95.9 

105.0 

112.0 

106.4 

111.6 

120.4 

133.5 

129.2 

106.2 

Mar. Apr. 

910. COMPOSITE 

53." 8 

49.0 

56.1 

60.0 

60.1 

64.3 

59.0 

70.0 

71.1 

69.3 

64.4 

77.6 

72.9 

74.8 

81.8 

83.9 

88.4 

94.9 

101.4 

96.5 

104.8 

111.2 

106.0 

113.4 

122.3 

132.7 

129.3 

107.1 

910-C. CHANGE IN 

-21.3 

22.2 

24.4 

13.0 

9.9 

2.1 

26.0 

-6.5 

-8.2 

-10.6 

23.2 

1.6 

6.8 

1.5 

10.8 

1.4 

9.3 

17.0 

2.5 

-9.9 

5.5 

-13.5 

12.b 

14.1 

6.5 

-3.6 

-30.7 

-18.1 

-4.7 

16.6 

-14.7 

10.6 

5.8 

15.4 

27.7 

-9.6 

-8.3 

7.8 

17.2 

-18.8 

12.2 

12.5 

13.9 

7.1 

2.6 

8.7 

3.8 

16.1 

-6.2 

-5.5 

17.6 

12.8 

6.5 

2.8 

-3.3 

2.3 

-11.5 

24.1 

-3.9 

6.2 

5.8 

0.0 

9.0 

7.0 

-1.7 

3.8 

22.5 

-19.1 

25.4 

1.5 

7.4 

5.6 

2.6 

6.1 

7.8 

-2.3 

-8.2 

-4.4 

21.2 

20.7 

-7.0 

0.9 

10.7 

910-C. CHANGE IN 

-14l6 

15.9 

2.7 

11.5 

8.6 

6.3 

20.7 

-8.1 

-6.1 

-4.2 

11.2 

-1.1 

2.2 

5.6 

9.7 

4.7 

3.9 

12.4 

1.3 

5.9 

1.8 

-8.9 

18.3 

12.5 

10.5 

-3.9 

-17.7 

-12.8 

20.9 

0.7 

9.9 

7.1 

5.6 

20.6 

-3.3 

-6.1 

0.0 

20.9 

-12.6 

14.6 

5.0 

10.7 

4.7 

4.8 

10.5 

4.7 

0.8 

-3.2 

-7.9 

17.2 

15.8 

1.8 

0.0 

-9.5 

-2.9 

-7.0 

24.0 

-11.9 

2.0 

3.2 

9.2 

13.6 

-0.6 

-6.7 

7.7 

14.5 

-12.1 

22.0 

2.5 

11.1 

9.0 

0.4 

3.6 

6.0 

1.6 

-1.8 

-1.9 

16.2 

15.2 

-3.0 

-4.6 

11.3 

54.2 

48.8 

57.4 

59.1 

59.6 

64.2 

59.6 

70.3 

71.2 

68.7 

65.0 

77.9 

73.1 

76.4 

81.4 

84.7 

89.4 

94.6 

101.1 

97.0 

104.1 

112.1 

106.4 

114.3 

123.5 

131.8 

127.4 

109.4 

:OMPOSITE 

May June July Aug. 

INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS 

(1967=100) 

53." 8 

48.7 

58.7 

59.1 

59.6 

63.5 

60.7 

70.6 

69.7 

68.6 

66.3 

77.9 

73.1 

77.2 

80.3 

85.7 

90.3 

95.1 

100.1 

98.0 

105.4 

112.0 

106.6 

115.3 

123.9 

132.6 

126.9 

111.7 

54.0 

48.7 

59.4 

58.3 

60.6 

62.4 

61.5 

70.b 

69.3 

69.0 

68.1 

77.4 

73.0 

78.0 

79.5 

85.8 

90.4 

95.1 

99.0 

99.6 

106.3 

111.5 

106.3 

115.5 

124.3 

133.7 

124.8 

115.2 

53.5 

49.6 

61.1 

57.9 

60.0 

62.4 

62.2 

71.7 

69.7 

69.1 

69.1 

77.3 

73.4 

78.0 

80.2 

85.2 

91.1 

95.6 

98.2 

100.7 

107.4 

110.5 

106.2 

115.8 

125.3 

133.2 

124.1 

117.8 

53.1 

50.9 

61.8 

57.7 

61.2 

61.2 

62.5 

72.0 

69.7 

68.6 

70.6 

76.5 

73.4 

79.0 

80.5 

85.2 

91.6 

95.8 

97.0 

102.5 

107.4 

110.0 

106.3 

115.5 

126.5 

131.6 

120.9 

118.6 

Sept. 

52.6 

52.5 

60.5 

58.3 

62.7 

59.4 

63.3 

72.6 

70.0 

67.5 

71.8 

76.0 

73.8 

78.3 

81.0 

86.2 

92.9 

96.2 

96.5 

102.9 

109.0 

110-.0 

106.9 

115.3 

128.2 

130.8 

117.2 

118.9 

Oct. 

52.4 

52.7 

60.2 

58.2 

62.4 

58.9 

64.9 

72.2 

70.5 

66.2 

72.9 

74.7 

73.5 

79.7 

80.7 

86.8 

93.2 

97.2 

95.8 

103.1 

110.8 

110.0 

106.8 

116.5 

129.4 

130.4 

114.4 

119.0 

Nov. 

5l!4 

53.1 

59.8 

58.2 

62.7 

58.1 

66.3 

72.2 

70.5 

64.9 

74.3 

74.4 

73.0 

80.6 

81.5 

87.0 

93.8 

98.0 

95.6 

103.5 

111.5 

108.9 

107.0 

116.9 

130.2 

130.5 

111.5 

119.3 

INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

9^3 

-4.8 

31.6 

-16.6 

-9.5 

-1.9 

12.9 

5.3 

1.7 

-9.9 

11.8 

4.7 

3.3 

28.9 

-5.7 

12.1 

14.5 

-3.7 

-3.5 

6.4 

-7.7 

10.2 

4.6 

9.9 

12.4 

-7.8 

-16.3 

29.0 

COMPOSITE 

-8.5 

-2.4 

30.8 

0.0 

0.0 

-12.3 

24.5 

5.2 

-22.5 

-1.7 

26.8 

0.0 

0.0 

13.3 

-15.1 

15.1 

12.8 

6.5 

-11.2 

13.1 

16.1 

-1.1 

2.3 

11.0 

4.0 

7.5 

-4.6 

28.4 

4.6 

0.0 

15.3 

-15.1 

22.1 

-18.9 

17.0 

3.5 

-6.7 

7.2 

37.9 

-7.4 

-1.6 

13.2 

-11.3 

1.4 

1.3 

0.0 

-12.4 

21.4 

10.7 

-5.2 

-3.3 

2.1 

3.9 

10.4 

-18.1 

44.8 

-10.6 

24.6 

40.3 

-7.9 

-11.3 

0.0 

14.5 

16.4 

7.1 

1.8 

19.1 

-1.5 

6.8 

0.0 

11.1 

-8.1 

9.7 

6.5 

-9.3 

14.1 

13.1 

-10.2 

-1.1 

3.2 

10.1 

-4.4 

-6.5 

30.7 

-8.6 

36.4 

14.6 

-4.1 

26.8 

-20.8 

5.9 

5.1 

0.0 

-8.3 

29.4 

-11.7 

0.0 

16.5 

4.6 

0.0 

6.8 

2.5 

-13.7 

23.7 

0.0 

-5.3 

1.1 

-3.1 

12.1 

-13.5 

-26.9 

8.5 

-10.7 

45.0 

-22.5 

13.2 

33.7 

-30.1 

16.5 

10.5 

5.3 

-17.6 

22.4 

-7.6 

6.7 

-10.1 

7.7 

15.0 

18.4 

5.1 

-6.0 

4.8 

19.4 

0.0 

7.0 

-2.1 

17.4 

-7.1 

-31.1 

3.1 

INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 3-MO 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

0*.7 

-6.3 

28.8 

-7.1 

-1.3 

-3.1 

12.0 

6.5 

-5.5 

-4.5 

13.7 

8.7 

-5.8 

22.4 

-6.7 

11.5 

10.9 

1.7 

-3.1 

9.1 

1.5 

0.0 

0.8 

13.9 

12.1 

-2.7 

-6.9 

22.4 

1.5 

-2.4 

25.7 

-10.9 

3.4 

-11.3 

18.1 

4.6 

-9.7 

-1.7 

25.0 

-1.0 

0.5 

18.2 

-10.8 

9.4 

9.4 

0.8 

-9.1 

13.5 

5.8 

1.1 

1.1 

7.6 

6.7 

3.0 

-13.2 

33.9 

-5.1 

6.7 

28.4 

-7.9 

2.7 

-10.8 

18.6 

8.2 

-8.2 

2.3 

27.7 

-3.0 

1.7 

8.6 

-5.8 

2.4 

7.8 

4.3 

-11.0 

16.2 

13.3 

-5.6 

-0.7 

5.4 

6.0 

4.3 

-10.0 

34.4 

-5.1 

19.3 

22.9 

-9.1 

11.2 

-13.7 

12.4 

8.2 

0.0 

0.0 

28.6 

-7.0 

1.7 

9.7 

1.0 

-2.3 

5.9 

3.0 

-11.8 

19.7 

7.8 

-7.0 

-1.1 

0.7 

8.7 

-3.0 

-17.6 

27.1 

-10.0 

35.1 

7.6 

0.0 

14.6 

-17.9 

12.2 

10.6 

4.1 

-8.4 

23.6 

-7.0 

4.5 

1.5 

7.8 

1.9 

11.5 

4.7 

-9.7 

13.9 

10.6 

-5.3 

2.3 

-0.7 

13.2 

-8.4 

-22.2 

13.5 

-8.0 

27.4 

-5.8 

2.1 

17.0 

-20.6 

18.5 

2.8 

4.7 

-15.8 

23.9 

-12.8 

0.5 

9.0 

2.5 

7.7 

9.5 

6.9 

-9.4 

9.9 

13.3 

-1.8 

2.3 

2.4 

13.7 

-8.1 

-27.8 

4.1 

-4.5 

4.7 

-5.8 

-2.0 

-5.6 

-9.6 

34.9 

-6.4 

8.9 

-20.8 

20.0 

-18.7 

-4.8 

23.7 

-4.4 

8.7 

3.9 

13.2 

-8.4 

2.4 

21.7 

0.0 

-1.1 

13.2 

11.8 

-3.6 

-25.2 

1.0 

-20.6 

9,5 

-7.7 

0.0 

5.9 

-15.1 

29.2 

0.0 

0.0 

-21.2 

25.6 

-4.7 

-7.9 

14.4 

12.6 

2.8 

8.0 

10.3 

-2.5 

4.8 

7.8 

-11.4 

2.3 

4.2 

7.7 

0.9 

-26.5 

3.1 

NTH SPANS ' 

-12'.2 

18.4 

-12.3 

3.5 

10.2 

-18.8 

26.6 

1.1 

4.7 

-19.9 

22.7 

-10.5 

-2.2 

8.4 

5.1 

8.7 

10.0 

9.5 

-5.6 

4.0 

16.2 

-3.9 

2.7 

4.9 

12.2 

-3.3 

-27.7 

2.4 

-13.7 

7.8 

-3.9 

2.8 

3.2 

-7.8 

24.0 

-4.9 

2.3 

-17.1 

12.8 

-3.1 

-7.9 

13.4 

4.0 

5.7 

3.9 

11.7 

-4.5 

6.8 

11.9 

-6.4 

8.1 

9.3 

12.7 

-4.5 

-23.0 

2.4 

Dec. 

50.7 

53.5 

59.9 

58.7 

63.2 

58.2 

66.8 

71.7 

70.4 

64.4 

74.0 

75.4 

72.3 

80.8 

81.8 

87.4 

93.8 

98.9 

95.4 

104.6 

112.1 

108.2 

109.0 

117.9 

132.1 

129.3 

109.8 

119.6 

-15*.2 

9.4 

2.0 

10.8 

10.0 

2.1 

9.4 

-8.0 

-1.7 

-8.9 

-4.7 

17.4 

-10.9 

3.0 

4.5 

5.7 

0.0 

11.6 

-2.5 

13.5 

6.7 

• 7.4 

24.9 

10.8 

19.0 

-10.5 

-16.8 

3.1 

-19!i 

13.5 

5.4 

7.8 

8.6 

-4.0 

21.2 

-4.9 

-3.4 

-13.7 

13.8 

4.4 

-4.3 

6.2 

9.2 

3.3 

5.7 

12.9 

-0.8 

2.3 

6.7 

-10.8 

12.9 

9.6 

10.9 

-4.5 

-24.9 

7.6 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

54^0 

49.4 

55.2 

60.4 

59.7 

64.0 

58.8 

69.2 

71.0 

69.5 

! 64.1 

76.4 

74.2 

73.6 

81.5 

83.3 

88.0 

94.7 

100.8 

96.0 

104.5 

111.9 

106.4 

111.7 

120.6 

133.0 

129.1 

106.6 

-12i5 

21.0 

1.9 

9.9 

7.2 

5.b 

20.9 

-3.0 

-6.1 

0.3 

21.0 

-12.1 

14.8 

5.2 

10.7 

4.7 

4.8 

10.6 

4.7 

1.3 

-3.0 

-7.8 

17.2 

15.9 

2.0 

0.0 

-7.8 

-1II3 

20.3 

-2.8 

7.8 

6.3 

7.0 

18.3 

-4.0 

-6.3 

1.2 

15.5 

-8.6 

12.9 

4.4 

10.5 

6.1 

3.0 

8.8 

4.0 

2.8 

-1.1 

-6.2 

17.2 

14.5 

3.1 

-2.8 

-5.3 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

54 ".0 53.1 

48.7 51.0 

58.5 61.1 

5b.b 58.0 

59.9 61.3 

63.4 61.0 

60.6 62.7 

70.6 72.1 

70.1 69.8 

68.8 68.4 

66.5 70.5 

77.7 76.6 

73.1 73.5 

77.2 78.4 

80.4 80.6 

85.4 85.5 

90.0 91.9 

94.9 95.9 

100.1 97.2 

98.2 102.0 

105.3 107.9 

111.9 110.2 

106.4 106.5 

115.0 115.5 

123.9 126.7 

132.7 131.9 

126.4 120.7 

112.1 118.4 

AVERAGE FOR 

1.8 -10.0 

-2.4 35.3 

25.9 10.8 

-10.6 0.4 

4.2 16.4 

-11.0 -17.0 

18.1 12.3 

4.7 10.7 

-9.2 4.1 

-1.5 -8.0 

25.5 23.6 

-0.9 -6.9 

0.6 4.5 

18.5 2.1 

-10.7 7.8 

9.5 2.3 

9.5 11.6 

0.9 4.7 

-9.0 -9.7 

13.6 14.2 

6.4 10.8 

1.3 -5.2 

1.2 2.3 

7.7 -0.7 

6.8 13.2 

3.4 -8.3 

-13.0 -21.5 

34.1 14.1 

AVERAGE FOR 

-i.6 -7.7 

-0.7 27.3 

27.6 8.2 

-8.6 -2.3 

1.6 14.3 

-8.4 -17.4 

16.2 14.4 

6.4 7.2 

-7.8 2.9 

-1.3 -8.1 

22.1 25.4 

1.6 -8.9 

-1.2 2.2 

16.4 6.7 

-7.8 3.8 

7.8 2.4 

9.4 9.0 

2.3 4.9 

-7.7 -10.3 

12.9 14.5 

6.9 10.6 

-1.5 -4.7 

0.4 1.2 

9.0 0.8 

8.3 11.9 

1.5 -6.5 

-10.0 -22.5 

30.2 14.9 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

51.5 

53.1 

60.0 

58.4 

62.8 

58.4 

66.0 

72.0 

70.5 

65.2 

73.7 

74.8 

72.9 

80.4 

81.3 

87.1 

93.6 

98.0 

95.6 

103.7 

111.5 

109.0 

107.6 

117.1 

130.6 

130.1 

111.9 

119.3 

PERIOD 

-13!4 

7.9 

-3.8 

2.9 

3.4 

-7.5 

24.5 

-4.8 

2.4 

-17.0 

13.6 

-2.0 

-7.9 

13.7 

4.2 

5.7 

4.0 

11.7 

-4.5 

6.9 

12.1 

-6.3 

8.7 

9.4 

12.8 

-4.4 

-22.8 

2.4 

PERIOD 

-15.0 

13.2 

-3.6 

4.7 

7.3 

-10.2 

23.9 

-2.9 

1.2 

-16.9 

16.4 

-3.1 

-4.8 

9.3 

6.1 

5.9 

6.5 

11.4 

-3.6 

4.4 

11.6 

-7.0 

7.9 

7.9 

11.9 

-4.1 

-25.2 

4.1 

Annual 

53'.2 

50.6 

58.7 

58.9 

60.9 

61.7 

62.0 

71.0 

70.3 

68.0 

68.7 

76.4 

73.4 

77.4 

80.9 

85.3 

90.9 

95.9 

98.4 

100.0 

107.3 

110.8 

106.7 

! 114.8 

125.4 

131.9 

122.0 

114.1 

7

13.-i 5 

-1.3 

8.5 

-7.1 

15.2 

7.9 

-1.4 

-8.1 

15.8 

2.8 

-3.7 

12.3 

1.6 

7.1 

7.5 

5.5 

-3.1 

9.9 

7.6 

-3.3 

1.1 

8.4 

12.2 

-1.8 

-14.3 

10.7 

7-i 

13.1 

-2.3 

1 7.8 

-7.4 

15.4 

7.3 

-1.9 

-8.1 

16.3 

! 1-3 

i ~

3*1 

11.4 

| 1.6 

6.6 

7.8 

5.4 

-3.2 

9.0 

8.0 

j -3.6 

! 0.8 

8.7 

11.6 

-1.5 

-15.1 

11.0 

' Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

BCD 1977 133 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959. . . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 1 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969. . . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

102. 5 

94. 2 

97. 0 

104. 2 

101. 1 

103. 9 

93. 8 

98.6 -

99. 6 

98. 7 

90. 9 

97. 1 

98. 5 

92. 9 

96. 8 

96. 4 

96. 8 

99. 8 

102. 0 

101. 2 

99. 9 

102. 2 

99. 1 

96. 7 

99. 1 

101. 2 

98. 7 

90. 4 

103. 1 

91. 5 

94. 8 

99. 3 

95. 7 

97. 7 

92. 6 

98. 4 

97. 8 

94. 4 

91. 4 

96. 7 

96. 5 

92. 1 

94. 9 

96. 1 

98. 7 

100. 0 

102. 1 

96. 9 

102. 2 

109. 0 

104. 8 

105. 0 

110. 3 

112. 8 

107. 2 

97. 8 

94. 5 

90. 0 

93. 2 

103. 2 

93. 7 

97. 7 

90. 0 

97. 8 

98. 5 

96. 2 

90. 3 

98. 3 

96. 9 

94. 0 

99. 0 

97. 7 

99. 3 

102. 5 

103. 0 

100. 2 

101. 9 

103. 0 

100. 3 

100. 0 

101. 5 

106. 5 

109. 8 

94. 6 

Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 

9,13. COMPOSITE INDEX OF MARGINAL E 

10U 2 

94. 6 

96. 6 

103. 9 

101. 4 

103. 6 

93. 9 

99. 5 

98. 3 

98. 5 

90. 4 

97. 9 

97. 2 

92. 2 

97. 2 

97. 0 

97. 7 

100. 0 

102. 7 

99. 1 

101. 5 

101. 5 

98. 4 

96. 8 

99. 3 

102. 3 

98. 5 

90. 0 

101. 1 

93. 0 

98. 1 

104. 5 

101. 0 

103. 4 

93. 5 

99. 9 

98. 7 

98. 7 

89. 8 

98. 7 

95. 1 

94. 3 

97. 8 

97. 1 

97. 7 

100. 5 

103. 7 

98. 7 

101. 2 

102. 2 

97. 4 

96. 6 

99. 5 

101. 9 

98. 7 

90. 7 

101. 1 

91. 9 

99. 1 

103. 6 

99. 6 

103. 4 

93. 1 

100. 1 

99. 5 

97. 6 

90. 1 

99. 1 

95. 2 

95. 1 

98. 2 

96. 9 

98. 6 

99. 7 

103. 3 

98. 9 

100. 5 

102. 2 

95. 9 

96. 9 

99. 7 

101. 4 

97. 7 

92. 0 

(1967=100 ) 

10o! 7 10K 7 

92. 4 93. 5 

100. 4 100. 8 

102. 4 101. 5 

100. 7 100. 1 

102. 2 101. 9 

94. 1 94. 4 

100. 7 99. 4 

97. 6 98. 4 

96. 5 97. 5 

91. 4 92. 9 

98. 7 98. 3 

95. 3 94. 8 

95. 0 95. 4 

97. 2 97. 0 

97. 3 97. 5 

98. 4 98. 6 

100. 3 100. 5 

103. 1 102. 7 

99. 5 99. 8 

101. 6 101. 6 

101. 9 101. 9 

96. 4 96. 7 

96. 9 96. 9 

99. 6 98. 7 

101. 1 101. 4 

99. 1 98. 4 

91. 3 92. 4 

July Aug. Sept. 

MPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTS 

10K 3 

93. 8 

102. 8 

99. 8 

96. 4 

101. 1 

95. 3 

99. 2 

98. 0 

96. 8 

93. 7 

97. 7 

94. 8 

95. 5 

97. 3 

97. 5 

98. 6 

100. 2 

102. 1 

99. 7 

101. 6 

101. 5 

97. 9 

97. 1 

99. 3 

100. 8 

98. 8 

95. 2 

914 . COMPOSITE INDEX OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT 

10 2'.2 

90. 7 

95. 8 

97. 8 

97. 0 

98. 1 

92. 4 

100. 1 

97. 6 

94. 5 

89. 9 

97. 3 

96. 2 

92. 5 

96. 0 

96. 5 

99. 1 

99. 6 

101. 7 

96. 8 

103. 8 

109. 1 

105. 1 

104. 7 

109. 9 

112. 9 

107. 5 

97. 5 

101. 2 

89. 9 

96. 7 

97. 1 

96. 6 

97. 4 

91. 7 

99. 8 

97. 7 

94. 6 

90. 4 

99. 0 

94. 7 

92. 8 

95. 3 

96. 8 

98. 6 

99. 9 

102. 0 

97. 4 

104. 4 

107. 8 

103. 8 

106. 2 

110. 3 

112. 7 

108. 0 

97. 6 

915 . COMP 

9411 

89. 5 

94. 3 

103. 0 

93. 4 

98. 0 

90. 8 

98. 4 

98. 2 

95. 6 

91. 7 

99. 7 

95. 5 

94. 3 

99. 2 

98. 3 

99. 0 

102. 3 

104. 3 

100. 1 

101. 8 

102. 5 

100. 5 

100. 9 

102. 0 

107. 4 

110. 0 

93. 5 

93. 4 

89. 0 

94. 9 

102. 8 

94. 2 

98. 3 

91. 1 

100. 1 

97. 8 

94. 4 

91. 9 

100. 4 

94. 1 

95. 3 

98. 9 

98. 8 

99. 4 

101. 7 

105. 3 

98. 9 

101. 1 

102. 4 

100. 2 

101. 2 

102. 6 

108. 0 

109. 6 

92. 9 

102. 8 

89. 8 

97. 5 

95. 6 

96. 2 

97. 5 

92. 6 

99. 4 

97. 4 

93. 5 

90. 7 

98. 1 

95. 6 

93. 0 

96. 1 

96. 7 

98. 7 

99. 2 

101. 0 

97. 9 

102. 9 

108. 6 

104. 4 

106. 4 

111. 2 

111. 4 

107. 6 

99. 6 

(1967=100 ) 

100*.8 10CK8 

89. 6 90. 2 

98. 4 98. 7 

97. 5 95. 1 

96. 2 97. 2 

96. 5 94. 3 

92. 9 93. 6 

99. 2 99. 3 

97. 2 96. 7 

93. 9 93. 9 

92. 0 92. 9 

97. 9 97. 5 

95. 2 94. 5 

93. 2 93. 9 

95. 3 95. 2 

97. 7 97. 3 

99. 8 99. 3 

99. 6 99. 9 

100. 2 99. 1 

98. 8 100. 6 

103. 0 103. 5 

107. 7 107. 5 

104. 2 103. 5 

107. 5 108. 2 

111. 2 111. 3 

111. 6 112. 4 

107. 4 106. 4 

100. 8 102. 8 

DSITE INDEX OF INVENTORY 

93^ 7 

88. 2 

96. 1 

100. 7 

94. 7 

97. 6 

91. 9 

100. 4 

97. 7 

93. 9 

92. 3 

101. 0 

93. 7 

96. 6 

97. 1 

99. 7 

100. 1 

101. 8 

105. 0 

98. 8 

100. 4 

103. 1 

100. 4 

101. 0 

102. 5 

108. 0 

108. 9 

94. 0 

(1967=100 ) 

94! 6 94*.8 

87. 4 86. 9 

98. 0 98. 8 

99. 0 97. 7 

94. 2 95. 9 

96. 4 96. 0 

93. 0 93. 9 

99. 7 99. 2 

96. 8 96. 1 

94. 4 95. 1 

93. 4 94. 4 

100. 4 99. 5 

94. 1 94. 6 

97. 6 98. 0 

96. 6 96. 1 

99. 5 99. 3 

100. 5 100. 2 

101. 9 101. 7 

104. 3 103. 8 

98. 5 99. 0 

100. 5 100. 6 

103. 5 103. 9 

101. 8 101. 7 

100. 9 100. 3 

102. 8 103. 1 

108. 8 109. 2 

107. 6 105. 8 

95. 4 96. 6 

99. 0 

89. 3 

100. 3 

94. 7 

97. 1 

95. 3 

94. 3 

99. 2 

96. 2 

93. 2 

93. 8 

97. 3 

94. 6 

93. 9 

95. 5 

97. 3 

99. 0 

100. 2 

98. 9 

100. 6 

105. 1 

107. 2 

103. 4 

108. 6 

111. 7 

111. 3 

107. 0 

103. 8 

100. 3 

93. 7 

105. 3 

98. 7 

102. 4 

99. 4 

94. 6 

99. 4 

98. 5 

96. 0 

94. 4 

97. 1 

93. 8 

96. 5 

96. 4 

97. 1 

99. 3 

99. 6 

102. 7 

100. 4 

100. 9 

101. 0 

96. 4 

95. 8 

100. 1 

100. 6 

97. 2 

94. 9 

100. 1 

95. 3 

103. 5 

99. 2 

104. 3 

97. 3 

94. 7 

100. 7 

98. 9 

94. 5 

95. 0 

96. 9 

94. 2 

94. 9 

97. 2 

97. 3 

98. 3 

100. 5 

102. 9 

100. 5 

101. 7 

101. 3 

95. 1 

95. 9 

100. 3 

101. 1 

96. 2 

94. 3 

COMMITMENTS 

97! 6 

90. 2 

100. 1 

94. 5 

97. 3 

94. 1 

94. 7 

99. 0 

95. 8 

93. 4 

95. 2 

96. 7 

94. 0 

94. 4 

95. 7 

97. 7 

99. 2 

99. 8 

97. 8 

101. 8 

106. 1 

107. 0 

103. 4 

108. 9 

111. 4 

111. 0 

1U4. 4 

103. 9 

96. 0 

92. 6 

98. 2 

96. 0 

99. 5 

93. 5 

95. 4 

99. 1 

95. 1 

92. 7 

95. 7 

97. 1 

93. 9 

93. 7 

95. 9 

98. 3 

99. 8 

100. 3 

97. 0 

101. 7 

106. 4 

106. 6 

103. 6 

108. 3 

113. 0 

109. 8 

102. 8 

103. 7 

INVESTMENT AND PURCHASING 

95. 2 

88. 5 

102. 6 

96. 4 

96. 1 

95. 8 

93. 6 

100. 1 

96. 4 

95. 6 

95. 6 

98. 7 

94. 9 

97. 6 

96. 9 

98. 0 

100. 7 

101. 7 

103. 6 

99. 7 

100. 9 

103. 9 

100. 4 

100. 0 

103. 4 

109. 5 

105. 3 

98. 1 

94. 8 

91. 5 

104. 4 

94. 8 

95. 5 

94. 1 

93. 1 

100. 8 

96. 8 

95. 1 

96. 4 

97. 8 

95. 1 

98. 2 

97. 2 

97. 7 

101. 0 

101. 8 

103. 3 

100. 7 

99. 9 

104. 1 

100. 0 

100. 2 

104. 2 

109. 0 

105. 2 

99. 1 

93. 7 

93. 7 

102. 9 

94. 5 

95. 8 

91. 7 

93. 8 

101. 0 

97. 5 

94. 2 

97. 4 

98. 0 

95. 2 

98. 4 

97. 6 

98. 2 

102. 6 

101. 0 

102. 4 

100. 7 

100. 9 

104. 0 

99. 8 

100. 2 

104. 8 

108. 7 

103. 5 

100. 6 

Oct. 

100. 1 

93. 5 

103. 3 

99. 2 

104. 4 

96. 6 

96. 0 

100. 5 

100. 0 

93. 3 

95. 3 

94. 9 

93. 4 

97. 3 

96. 2 

97. 6 

98. 6 

101. 2 

102. 4 

100. 3 

102. 0 

101. 0 

94. 7 

97. 0 

100. 5 

101. 0 

94. 5 

94. 3 

96^ 3 

92. 3 

97. 1 

94. 9 

98. 0 

94. 2 

96. 5 

98. 3 

95. 4 

92. 4 

95. 8 

96. 4 

93. 6 

94. 5 

95. 8 

98. 5 

99. 9 

100. 4 

96. 3 

101. 8 

108. 1 

106. 4 

103. 9 

109. 0 

113. 0 

109. 0 

100 . 9 

103. 6 

92^ 4 

94. 3 

102. 6 

95. 1 

95. 6 

89. 8 

95. 2 

100. 6 

97. 9 

93. 0 

98. 1 

97. 9 

94. 8 

98. 4 

98. 0 

98. 6 

102. 0 

101. 0 

102. 0 

100. 7 

102. 0 

103. 7 

98. 9 

100. 9 

105. 8 

108. 9 

101. 4 

101. 0 

Nov. 

99. 1 

93. 8 

102. 4 

100. 7 

104. 2 

94. 9 

97. 9 

101. 0 

99. 0 

92. 3 

96. 2 

95. 3 

93. 0 

97. 7 

96. 8 

97. 2 

98. 8 

'101. 5 

101. 8 

100. 9 

102. 0 

100. 4 

95. 2 

97. 9 

100. 9 

100. 7 

91. 7 

95. 2 

9 4 ^ 

93. 9 

97. 1 

95. 3 

97. 4 

92. 9 

96. 8 

98. 1 

95. 5 

91. 9 

96. 8 

96. 2 

92. 6 

95. 3 

96. 3 

98. 4 

99. 9 

100. 6 

95. 4 

102. 5 

107. 4 

105. 5 

104. 3 

109. 8 

112. 3 

109. 4 

99. 5 

103. 8 

9 K 2 

94. 4 

101. 3 

93. 8 

96. 0 

89. 4 

96. 7 

99. 8 

97. 4 

91. 6 

98. 6 

97. 3 

94. 5 

98. 2 

97. 8 

98. 8 

102. 0 

101. 6 

101. 5 

100. 9 

103. 0 

102. 3 

98. 5 

100. 9 

105. 7 

109. 6 

98. 9 

100. 0 

Dec. 

96. 9 

97. 1 

102. 2 

101. 0 

103. 4 

94. 7 

97. 9 

100. 4 

99. 3 

91. 7 

96. 0 

98. 9 

91. 6 

97. 3 

96. 4 

97. 5 

99. 4 

102. 0 

100. 9 

101. 0 

101. 8 

100. 4 

96. 2 

98. 6 

101. 0 

99. 6 

91. 3 

96. 9 

94. 5 

94. 2 

98. 9 

95. 6 

97. 8 

92. 9 

96. 9 

97. 9 

95.2 ! 

91.2 | 

95. 8 

97. 1 

92. 7 

94.8 ! 

96. 5 

99. 0 

99. 6 

101. 3 

95. 7 

103. 2 

107. 9 

105. 6 

105. 6 

110. 2 

113. 4 

107. 3 

101. 1 

104. 3 

90 ! l 

93. 0 

100. 7 

93. 6 

96. 6 

89. 6 

97. 4 

98. 9 

96. 7 

91. 0 

98. 2 

97. 8 

94. 5 

98. 5 

97. 4 

98. 8 

102. 1 

102. 4 

101. 2 

101. 8 

102. 8 

101. 7 1 

99. 4 

101. 1 

106. 0 

109. 9 

96. 4 

99. 2 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

lUl'.'b 

93. 9 

97. 2 

104. 2 

101. 2 

103. 6 

93. 7 

99. 3 

98. 9 

98. 6 

90. 4 

97. 9 

96. 9 

93. 1 

97. 3 

96. 8 

97. 4 

100. 1 

102. 8 

99. 7 

100. 9 

102. 0 

98. 3 

9b. 7 

99. 3 

101. 8 

98. 6 

90. 4 

102^ 2 

90. 7 

95. 8 

98. 1 

96. 4 

97. 7 

92. 2 

99. 4 

97. 7 

94. 5 

90. 6 

97. 7 

95. 8 

92. 5 

95. 4 

96. 5 

98. 8 

99. 8 

101. 9 

97. 0 

103. 5 

108. 6 

104. 6 

105. 3 

110. 2 

112. 8 

107. 6 

97. 6 

94. 0 

89. 5 

94. 1 

103. 0 

93. 8 

98. 0 

90. 6 

98. 8 

98. 2 

95. 4 

91. 3 

99. 5 

95. 5 

94. 5 

99. 0 

98. 3 

99. 2 

102. 2 

104. 2 

99. 7 

101. 6 

102. 6 

100. 3 

100. 7 

102. 0 

107. 3 

109. 8 

93. 7 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

101'. 2 

92. 6 

100. 1 

102. 5 

100. 1 

102. 5 

93. 9 

100. 1 

93. 5 

97. 2 

91. 5 

98. 7 

95. 1 

95. 2 

97. 5 

97. 2 

98. 5 

100. 2 

103. 0 

99. 4 

101. 2 

102. 0 

96. 3 

96. 9 

99. 3 

101. 3 

98. 4 

91. 9 

100. 6 

94. 3 

103. 9 

99. 2 

101. 0 

99. 3 

94. 9 

99. 8 

98. 5 

95. 8 

94. 4 

97. 2 

94. 3 

95. 6 

97. 0 

97. 3 

98. 7 

100. 1 

102. 6 

100. 2 

101. 4 

101. 3 

96. 5 

96. 3 

99. 9 

100. 8 

97. 4 

94. 8 

AVERAGE FOR 

lol] 5 

89. 9 

98. 2 

96. 1 

96. 5 

96. 1 

93. 0 

99. 3 

97. 1 

93. 8 

91. 9 

97. 8 

95. 1 

93. 4 

95. 5 

97. 2 

99. 3 

99. 6 

100. 1 

99. 1 

103. 1 

107. 9 

104. 0 

107. 4 

111. 2 

111. 8 

107. 1 

101. 1 

97. 5 

90. 7 

99. 5 

95. 1 

98. 0 

94. 3 

94. 8 

99. 1 

95. 7 

93. 1 

94. 9 

97. 0 

94. 2 

94. 0 

95. 7 

97. 8 

99. 3 

100. 1 

97. 9 

101. 4 

105. 9 

106. 9 

103. 5 

108. 6 

112. 0 

110. 7 

104. 7 

103. 8 

AVERAGE FOR 

94. 2 

87. 5 

97. 6 

99. 1 

94. 9 

96. 7 

92. 9 

99. 8 

96. 9 

94. 5 

93. 4 

100. 3 

94. 1 

97. 4 

96. 6 

99. 5 

100. 3 

101. 8 

104. 4 

98. 8 

100. 5 

103. 5 

101. 3 

100. 7 

102. 8 

108. 7 

107. 4 

95. 3 

94. 6 

91. 2 

103. 3 

95. 2 

95. 8 

93. 9 

93. 5 

100. 6 

96. 9 

95. 0 

96. 5 

98. 2 

95. 1 

98. 1 

97. 2 

98. 0 

101. 4 

101. 5 

103. 1 

100. 4 

100. 6 

104. 0 

100. 1 

100. 1 

104. 1 

109. 1 

104. 7 

99. 3 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

98. 7 

94. 8 

102. 6 

100. 3 

104. 0 

95. 4 

97. 3 

100. 6 

99. 4 

92. 4 

95. 8 

96. 4 

92. 7 

97. 4 

96. 5 

97. 4 

98. 9 

101. 6 

101. 7 

100. 7 

101. 9 

100. 6 

95. 4 

97. 8 

100. 8 

100. 4 

92. 5 

95. 5 

PERIOD 

9s!i 

93. 5 

97. 7 

95. 3 

97. 7 

93. 3 

96. 7 

98. 1 

95. 4 

91. 8 

96. 1 

96. 6 

93. 0 

94. 9 

96. 2 

98. 6 

99. 8 

100. 8 

95. 8 

102. 5 

107. 8 

105. 8 

104. 6 

109. 7 

112. 9 

108. 6 

100. 5 

103. 9 

PERIOD 

9 U 2 

93. 9 

101. 5 

94. 2 

96. 1 

89. 6 

96. 4 

99. 8 

97. 3 

91. 9 

98. 3

 ! 

97. 7 

94. 6 

98. 4 

97. 7 

98. 7 

102. 0 

101. 7 

101. 6 

101. 1 

102. 6 

102. 6 

98. 9 

101. 0 

105. 8 

109. 5 

98. 9 

100. 1 

Annual 

100. 5 

93. 9 

101. 0 

101. 6 

101. 6 

100. 2 

94. 9 

100. 0 

98. 8 

96. 0 

93. 0 

97. 6 

94. 7 

95. 3 

97. 0 

97. 2 

98. 4 

100. 5 

102. 5 

100. 0 

101. 4 

101. 5 

96. 6 

96. 9 

99. 8 

101. 1 

96. 7 

93. 1 

99. 1 

1 91.2 

97. 8 

96. 1 

97. 2 

95. 4 

94. 2 

99. 0 

96. 5 

93. 3 

93. 4 

97. 3 

94. 5 

93. 7 

95. 7 

97. 5 

99. 3 

100. 1 

98. 9 

100. 0 

105. 1 

107. 3 

104. 2 

107. 7 

111. 6 

111. 0 

105. 0 

101. 6 

93^ 5 

90. 5 

99. 2 

97. 9 

95. 1 

94. 5 

93. 4 

99. 7 

97. 3 

94. 2 

94. 9 

98. 9 

1 94. 8 

97. 1 

97. 6 

98. 6 

100. 7 

101. 8 

103. 3 

100. 0 

101. 3 

103. 2 

100. 2 

100. 6 

103. 7 

108. 6 

105. 2 

97. 1 

134 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

194b. .. 

1947... 

1948. . . 

1949... 

1950. . . 

1951... 

19b2... 

1953. .. 

Iy54... 

1955.. . 

1956... 

1957... 

1958. . . 

1959. . . 

19OU . . . 

19bl.. . 

1962... 

1963... 

1964. . . 

1965. .. 

I9bb. . . 

1967... 

19bb. .. 

1969. . . 

197U.. . 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974.. . 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950. . . 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

195b... 

1959... 

I960. .. 

1961... 

1962. .. 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971. .. 

1972... 

1973.. . 

1974... 

1975... 

1976. .. 

1945. .. 

1946... 

1947... 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950. .. 

1951. .. 

1952... 

1953.. . 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

70*.i 

70.8 

69.5 

75.1 

74.3 

73.8 

71.3 

79.4 

82.6 

81.9 

77.6 

85.1 

86.9 

83.7 

• 89.5 

89.9 

94.4 

98.3 

102.3 

99.3 

100.4 

100.5 

94.3 

94.8 

100.8 

105.6 

103.9 

93.7 

77'.4 

71.1 

75.2 

72.0 

76.9 

79.4 

75.4 

83.3 

86.4 

83.2 

76.7 

85.6 

82.4 

80.1 

87.1 

88.1 

90.7 

95.4 

99.8 

94.2 

102.3 

109.2 

101.4 

106.2 

113.1 

127.0 

118.2 

102.2 

109*3 

100.8 

102.1 

107.6 

96.5 

99.2 

90.3 

100.6 

100.9 

95.0 

87.2 

98.5 

97.0 

88.7 

98.4 

97.7 

99.2 

102.1 

103.8 

99.4 

101.7 

100.2 

92.5 

98.5 

107.1 

109.8 

94.4 

79.4 

Feb. 

70*1 

b9.9 

69.9 

73.8 

73.9 

73.7 

72.0 

80.1 

82.5 

81.9 

76.7 

85.5 

86.0 

84.0 

90.3 

90.0 

94.8 

99.0 

102.1 

99.7 

99.2 

100.6 

93.5 

95.9 

101.2 

105.6 

103.3 

95.0 

77.2 

71.4 

75.6 

69.8 

77.9 

79.1 

75.8 

84.2 

86.0 

83.3 

77.2 

85.8 

83.0 

80.3 

86.7 

88.7 

91.0 

96.0 

99.4 

96.5 

102.1 

108.5 

100.2 

108.1 

114.8 

126.0 

117.9 

100.5 

Mar. Apr. 

916. COMPOS 

69.9 

70.0 

70.3 

74.1 

73.5 

73.4 

72.3 

80.4 

83.0 

81.8 

76.8 

86.3 

85.2 

85.0 

90.3 

90.2 

94.8 

99.4 

101.9 

99.6 

99.3 

100.2 

93.6 

96.6 

101.6 

105.7 

103.5 

96.0 

917. CC 

77.7 

71.6 

76.3 

69.6 

78.2 

79.6 

76.2 

84.1 

85.6 

83.4 

77.2 

86.3 

83.0 

81.3 

87.0 

89.0 

91.4 

96.3 

99.7 

97.9 

102.3 

107.3 

100.7 

109.7 

116.6 

123.6 

117.4 

102.0 

940. RATIO, CO 

108*4 

99.8 

101.9 

105.5 

97.7 

99.2 

91.0 

101.5 

100.3 

96.2 

86.7 

99.3 

95.2 

88.6 

99.5 

98.3 

99.5 

102.1 

103.4 

99.2 

101.9 

100.2 

92.3 

99.0 

108.5 

109.4 

94.7 

81.3 

108.8 

99.4 

105.3 

104.5 

97.2 

99.4 

91.2 

102.2 

98.8 

95.8 

85.9 

100.1 

93.6 

90.1 

99.7 

98.7 

99.3 

102.1 

103.3 

98.9 

102.4 

99.6 

92.8 

100.4 

109.3 

108.1 

94.7 

82.5 

71.3 

69.5 

71.2 

74.6 

73.1 

72.7 

72.9 

81.2 

83.1 

81.7 

76.8 

87.1 

85.0 

85.9 

89.3 

91.2 

95.3 

99.9 

101.7 

99.9 

100.5 

99.7 

93.1 

97.2 

102.2 

104.5 

102.0 

98.3 

)MPOSITE 

73*6 

72.2 

77.5 

69.6 

77.5 

80.1 

76.0 

84.4 

84.7 

83.0 

77.6 

86.7 

82.3 

82.4 

87.3 

89.7 

91.8 

96.2 

100.1 

97.5 

102.8 

106.9 

101.5 

111.0 

117.8 

122.6 

117.7 

102.5 

[NCIDENT 

107*0 

98.8 

106.9 

103.6 

97.2 

97.9 

91.6 

104.0 

98.4 

94.2 

85.8 

101.0 

93.5 

91.4 

99.6 

99.5 

99.8 

101.6 

102.3 

99.6 

101.5 

98.3 

93.9 

101.5 

109.4 

105.9 

91.3 

85.2 

May June July Aug. 

ITE INDEX OF PROFITABILITY 

(1967=100) 

72.4 72.7 

69.0 68.6 

72.0 72.8 

75.2 74.8 

72.6 72.6 

72.8 72.1 

73.6 74.1 

81.2 82.0 

82.5 82.3 

82.0 82.5 

77.7 79.2 

87.7 87.1 

84.3 84.6 

86.3 86.4 

88.3 86.7 

91.9 92.0 

95.4 95.3 

100.5 100.0 

101.2 100.7 

99.8 99.6 

100.8 101.1 

99.8 98.9 

91.5 91.1 

97.3 97.1 

102.0 102.1 

104.5 104.5 

100.9 99.8 

100.6 102.6 

71.9 

69.0 

73.0 

74.5 

73.1 

72.3 

74.6 

82.6 

81.4 

82.9 

79.8 

86.6 

84.5 

86.7 

87.2 

91.4 

95.8 

100.4 

100.6 

99.4 

100.7 

98.0 

91.1 

97.3 

102.4 

104.3 

98.0 

104.2 

71.1 

69.9 

74.3 

74.6 

72.9 

72.2 

74.8 

82.4 

82.5 

82.0 

80.9 

85.4 

84.7 

87.5 

87.6 

92.1 

95.7 

100.8 

99.4 

99.8 

100.3 

97.7 

91.4 

96.7 

103.3 

105.4 

96.4 

104.3 

Sept. 

71'.2 

69.6 

74.9 

74.7 

73.0 

71.2 

75.6 

83.0 

82.2 

81.4 

81.5 

84.8 

83.9 

87.8 

88.1 

92.4 

95.6 

101.3 

99.0 

100.6 

100.5 

97.1 

91.8 

98.0 

103.3 

104.9 

94.9 

104.2 

INDEX OF MONEY AND FINANCIAL FLOWS 

(1967=100) 

71.3 70.6 

73.2 73.0 

77.9 77.8 

70.2 71.6 

77.0 77.0 

80.1 79.0 

76.8 77.4 

85.6 86.6 

83.1 82.5 

82.5 81.2 

77.9 78.5 

87.4 87.4 

81.0 80.4 

83.2 84.1 

87.2 87.1 

90.4 90.6 

92.6 93.0 

95.8 96.1 

100.0 98.7 

98.5 99.8 

103.7 104.5 

106.5 105.2 

101.9 101.4 

111.9 112.9 

118.0 118.2 

123.0 123.7 

116.9 115.7 

103.5 105.4 

COMPOSITE INDEX 

(1967=100) 

107.9 108.4 

98.0 98.2 

108.4 110.1 

102.1 100.7 

96.4 94.2 

97.2 96.6 

92.2 93.4 

104.6 103.6 

96.4 95.7 

93.5 93.4 

87.9 90.5 

101.0 100.0 

92.0 90.9 

92.9 94.8 

99.2 98.4 

99.7 99.7 

100.7 100.5 

101.7 102.2 

101.7 101.7 

99.3 99.3 

101.0 101.1 

97.6 95.8 

93.7 92.8 

101.5 102.2 

109.2 108.3 

104.9 102.9 

88.5 87.4 

87.0 90.8 

70.0 

74.0 

77.1 

72.9 

77.0 

78.2 

78.4 

87.5 

82.2 

80.5 

78.6 

87.8 

80.9 

84.5 

86.9 

90.4 

93.6 

96.9 

96.5 

101.2 

105.2 

103.4 

101.2 

113.7 

118.6 

123.6 

114.2 

106.1 

70.5 

73.5 

76.1 

74.1 

77.6 

77.5 

79.4 

87.4 

82.1 

80.2 

79.2 

87.2 

81.6 

84.8 

86.8 

90.1 

93.9 

97.4 

94.1 

102.1 

106.2 

101.7 

102.4 

114.1 

119.1 

121.3 

111.4 

106.8 

71.2 

72.8 

74.8 

74.4 

79.0 

76.6 

80.2 

87.0 

82.7 

79.6 

80.9 

85.3 

82.3 

84.8 

86.5 

90.5 

94.4 

98.0 

94.0 

102.8 

107.3 

101.8 

104.3 

113.2 

120.8 

119.9 

109.0 

106.5 

TO LAGGING COMPOSITE INDE 

106*6 

97.5 

114.0 

99.0 

92.6 

96.2 

93.5 

103.9 

91.1 

93.3 

92.7 

97.8 

90.7 

95.8 

98.5 

99.1 

101.4 

102.9 

100.6 

99.2 

101.8 

95.5 

92.9 

100.6 

108.8 

100.8 

86.1 

91.5 

105.3 

99.2 

115.2 

98.6 

96.9 

95.1 

95.0 

101.5 

95.4 

92.4 

94.6 

93.6 

90.7 

96.6 

98.5 

99.0 

100.9 

102.6 

100.0 

100.4 

101.1 

95.5 

92.5 

99.6 

110.0 

98.0 

85.5 

92.7 

105.1 

101.0 

111.5 

98.1 

99.2 

93.3 

96.1 

101.5 

95.6 

90.9 

94.7 

92.1 

91.0 

96.3 

98.2 

99.4 

100.7 

103.3 

100.2 

100.4 

101.6 

95.4 

92.9 

100.4 

109.4 

96.6 

84.7 

93.5 

Oct. 

71*. 8 

69.2 

75.0 

74.8 

73.0 

70.8 

76.1 

82.9 

81.9 

79.9 

82.8 

84.6 

83.5 

88.2 

87.7 

92.8 

95.9 

101.6 

99.0 

100.9 

100.4 

96.8 

92.2 

98.0 

103.6 

105.3 

95.1 

104.4 

71 ".3 

73.2 

74.2 

74.5 

79.5 

75.5 

81.7 

87.5 

82.8 

78.8 

82.6 

83.1 

82.0 

85.4 

86.3 

90.6 

95.1 

98.8 

93.0 

103.3 

107.8 

102.2 

104.7 

112.2 

122.3 

118.8 

107.7 

105.9 

X 

106.4 

96.1 

109.5 

98.1 

100.2 

93.2 

97.1 

101.5 

96.4 

90.9 

95.3 

90.7 

90.9 

97.7 

97.9 

99.5 

99.5 

103.7 

100.5 

100.7 

102.4 

94.9 

91.8 

101.3 

110.0 

97.3 

84„0 

93.1 

Nov. 

70 ".8 

69.2 

74.9 

74.1 

74.0 

70.3 

76.9 

83.4 

81.9 

78.9 

83.8 

84.6 

83.3 

89.1 

88.9 

92.7 

96.6 

101.6 

99.2 

100.7 

101.0 

96.5 

92.0 

97.9 

104.9 

104.3 

94.9 

105.2 

71'.3 

73.2 

74.0 

75.4 

80.3 

74.8 

82.3 

87.0 

83.3 

77.6 

84.4 

81.5 

81.4 

86.5 

86.3 

91.2 

95.6 

99.1 

92.5 

103.4 

108.8 

102.5 

104.7 

111.5 

124.2 

118.3 

106.7 

107.5 

104.0 

99.4 

106.7 

98.1 

100.3 

92.1 

98.5 

101.2 

95.5 

89.2 

97.9 

91.9 

89.7 

99.6 

98.0 

98.2 

101.9 

104.0 

99.5 

101.9 

102.3 

94.2 

92.3 

103.1 

110.5 

97.6 

82.6 

95.0 

Dec. 

7l".0 

69.3 

74.7 

74.2 

74.0 

70.6 

78.3 

83.7 

82.1 

78.2 

84.2 

86.4 

83.3 

90.0 

89.2 

92.9 

96.9 

102.0 

99.2 

100.7 

1U0.7 

95.2 

93.8 

99.1 

106.0 

103.5 

92.9 

105.6 

71'.4 

74.2 

73.1 

75.8 

79.8 

75.0 ! 

82.6 j 

86.7 

83.2 

77.2 

84.7 

81.6 

80.6 ! 

87.0 

87.0 

90.6 

95.4 

99.3 

93.5 

102.8 

109.3 

101.5 ! 

105.2 

111.8 1 

126.2 

118.4 

104.8 

107.3 

103*. 9 

100.8 

108.7 

97.2 

100.0 

90.8 

99.8 

101.9 

96.3 

87.5 

96.8 

96.0 

87.9 

99.9 

97.5 

98.5 

102.4 

103.6 

99.1 

101.7 

100.9 

93.9 

95.4 

104.2 

110.8 

96.0 

80.1 

96.4 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

70.0 

70.2 

69.9 

74.3 

73.9 

73.6 

71.9 

80.0 

82.7 

81.9 

77.0 

85.6 

86.0 

84.2 

' 90.0 

9U.0 

94.7 

98.9 

102.1 

99.5 

99.6 

100.4 

93.8 

95.8 

101.2 

105.6 

103.6 

94.9 

77*4 

71.4 

75.7 

70.5 

77.7 

79.4 

75.8 

83.9 

86.0 

83.3 

77.0 

85.9 

82.8 

80.6 

86.9 

88.6 

91.0 

95.9 

99.6 

96.2 

102.2 

108.3 

100.8 

108.0 

114.8 

125.5 

117.8 

101.6 

108.8 

100.0 

103.1 

105.9 

97.1 

99.3 

90.8 

101.4 

100.0 

95.7 

86.6 

99.3 

95.3 

89.1 

99.2 

98.2 

99.3 

102.1 

103.5 

99.2 

102.0 

100.0 

92.5 

99.3 

108.3 

109.1 

94.6 

81.1 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR P 

72*1 

69.0 

72.0 

74.9 

72.8 

72.5 

73.5 

81.5 

82.6 

82.1 

77.9 

87.3 

84.6 

86.2 

88.1 

91.7 

95.3 

100.1 

101.2 

99.8 

100.8 

99.5 

91.9 

97.2 

102.1 

104.5 

100.9 

100.5 

71.4 

69.5 

74.1 

74.6 

73.0 

71.9 

75.0 

82.7 

82.0 

82.1 

80.7 

85.6 

84.4 

87.3 

87.6 

92.0 

95.7 

100.8 

99.7 

99.9 

100.5 

97.6 

91.4 

97.3 

103.0 

104.9 

96.4 

104.2 

IV Q 

ERIOD 

71.2 

69.2 

74.9 

74.4 

73.7 

70.6 

77.1 

83.3 

82.0 

79.0 

83.6 

85.2 

83.4 

89.1 

88.6 

92.8 

96.5 

101.7 

99.1 

100.8 

100.7 

96.2 

92.7 

98.3 

104.8 

104.4 

94.3 

105.1 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

71*8 

72.8 

77.7 

70.5 

77.2 

79.7 

76.7 

85.5 

83.4 

82.2 

78.0 

87.2 

81.2 

83.2 

87.2 

90.2 

92.5 

96.0 

99.6 

98.6 

103.7 

106.2 

101.6 

111.9 

118.0 

123.1 

116.8 

103.8 

70.6 

73.4 

76.0 

73.8 

77.9 

77.4 

79.3 

87.3 

82.3 

80.1 

79.6 

86.8 

81.6 

84.7 

86.7 

90.3 

94.0 

97.4 

94.9 

102.0 

106.2 

102.3 

102.6 

113.7 

119.5 

121.6 

111.5 

106.5 

71.3 

73.5 

73.8 

75.2 1 

79.9 

75.1 

82.2 

87.1 

83.1 

77.9 

83.9 

82.1 

81.3 

86.3 

86.5 

90.8 

95.4 

99.1 

93.0 

103.2 

108.6 

102.1 

104.9 

111.8 

124.2 

118.5 

106.4 

106.9 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

107.8 

98.3 

108.5 

102.1 

95.9 

97.2 

92.4 

104.1 

96.8 

93.7 

88.1 

100.7 

92.1 

93.0 

99.1 

99.6 

100.3 

101.8 

101.9 

99.4 

101.2 

97.2 

93.5 

101.7 

109.0 

104.6 

89.1 

87.7 

105*7 

99.2 

113.6 

98.6 

96.2 

94.9 

94.9 

102.3 

94.0 

92.2 

94.0 

94.5 

90.8 

96.2 

98.4 

99.2 

101.0 

102.9 

100.3 

100.0 

101.5 

95.5 

92.8 

100.2 

109.4 

98.5 

85.4 

92.6 

104.8 

98.8 

108.3 

97.8 

100.2 

92.0 

98.5 

101.5 

96.1 

89.2 

96.7 

92.9 

89.5 

99.1 

97.8 

98.7 

101.3 

103.8 

99.7 

101.4 

101.9 

94.3 

93.2 

102.9 

110.4 

97.0 

82.2 

94.8 

Annual 

71.2 

69.5 

72.7 

74.5 

73.3 

72.2 

74.4 

81.9 

82.3 

81.3 

79.8 

85.9 

84.6 

86.7 

88.6 

91.6 

95.5 

100.4 

100.5 

100.0 

100.4 

98.4 

92.4 

97.2 

102.8 

104.8 

98.8 

101.2 

72*8 

72.8 

75.8 

72.5 

78.1 

1 77.9 

78.5 

85.9 

83.7 

80.9 

79.6 

85.5 

81.7 

83.7 

86.8 

90.0 

93.2 

97.1 

96.8 

i 100.0 

105.2 

104.7 

102.5 

111.4 

119.1 

122.2 

113.1 

104.7 

106.8 

i 99.1 

108.4 

101.1 

97.4 

95.8 

94.1 

102.3 

96.7 

92.7 

91.3 

96.8 

91.9 

94.4 

98.6 

! 98.9 

100.5 

102.7 

101.3 

100.0 

101.6 

96.8 

93.0 

101.0 

1 109.3 

102.3 

! 87.8 

> 89.0 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

9 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

c 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Jan. 

50.' 5 

50. 0 

48. 5 

58. 0 

58. 3 

64. 0 

60. 4 

62. 3 

68. 6 

69. 9 

64. 8 

67. 5 

72. 3 

67. 6 

72. 5 

75. 0 

79. 2 

85. 7 

93. 9 

99. 3 

102. 6 

108. 6 

109. 8 

107. 5 

112. 9 

123. 8 

126. 8 

113. 9 

Feb. 

Monthly 

Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. 

920 . COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 

50. 4 

49. 6 

48. 2 

57. 7 

59. 1 

64. 6 

60. 4 

62. 8 

68. 5 

70. 4 

63. 5 

68. 3 

72. 1 

67. 4 

73. 2 

75. 7 

80. 0 

86. 3 

94. 5 

98. 8 

103. 5 

109. 2 

109. 7 

107. 3 

113. 3 

125. 1 

126. 1 

112. 3 

50. 9 

49. 1 

49. 7 

58. 0 

59. 1 

65. 2 

59. 8 

63. 9 

68. 5 

70. 3 

62. 6 

69. 1 

71. 5 

67. 9 

73. 8 

76. 0 

80. 0 

87. 1 

95. 7 

98. 9 

103. 9 

109. 6 

109. 7 

107. 7 

114. 5 

125. 6 

125. 8 

110. 9 

20-C . CHANGE IN COMPOSITE 

-23!6 

19. 1 

13. 3 

4 . 2 

5 . 8 

-12. 9 

14. 5 

1 . 8 

-5. 0 

-16. 8 

19. 6 

16. 2 

-3. 5 

-6. 4 

0 . 0 

4 . 7 

4 . 3 

8 . 0 

6 . 2 

-4. 6 

4 . 5 

-12. 2 

10. 6 

20. 0 

12. 4 

-9. 8 

-21. 3 

-2. 4 

-9. 2 

-7. 2 

-6. 0 

17. 8 

11. 8 

0 . 0 

10. 1 

-1. 7 

8 . 9 

-21. 6 

15. 2 

-3. 3 

-3. 5 

12. 2 

11. 8 

12. 8 

8 . 7 

7 . 9 

-5. 9 

11. 0 

6 . 8 

-1. 1 

-2. 2 

4 . 3 

13. 4 

-6. 4 

-15. 6 

20-C . CHANGE IN 

-14. 0 

8 . 7 

11. 9 

7 . 1 

9 . 9 

-11. 1 

13. 1 

2 . 4 

4 . 1 

-19. 3 

9 . 9 

20. 6 

-7. 9 

3 . 9 

2 . 1 

8 . 4 

10. 9 

8 . 9 

0 . 4 

6 . 4 

4 . 9 

-4. 3 

9 . 5 

11. 7 

12. 0 

-8. 1 

-23. 0 

-14. 8 

16. 9 

4 . 2 

7 . 1 

9 . 8 

-8. 2 

15. 8 

0 . 0 

0 . 6 

-18. 1 

16. 6 

0 . 6 

0 . 6 

5 . 0 

5 . 4 

5 . 7 

8 . 2 

10. 7 

0 . 4 

3 . 5 

5 . 3 

-4. 6 

4 . 2 

12. 4 

10. 2 

-6. 4 

-17. 0 

12. 6 

-11. 4 

44. 4 

6 . 4 

0 . 0 

11. 7 

-11. 3 

23. 2 

0 . 0 

-1. 7 

-15. 7 

15. 0 

-9. 5 

9 . 3 

10. 3 

4 . 9 

0 . 0 

11. 7 

16. 3 

1 . 2 

4 . 7 

4 . 5 

0 . 0 

4 . 6 

13. 5 

4 . 9 

-2. 8 

-14. 0 

COMPOSITf 

... -0. 8 

-10. 7 

20. 4 

1 . 4 

4 . 2 

7 . 7 

-5. 2 

16. 3 

2 . 9 

-1. 7 

-17. 8 

17. 0 

-3. 3 

3 . 6 

9 . 7 

8 . 8 

8 . 9 

8 . 7 

8 . 8 

-0. 4 

6 . 0 

4 . 5 

-1. 4 

2 . 3 

9 . 5 

5 . 9 

-4. 0 

-8. 5 

50. 4 

48. 6 

50. 8 

58. 2 

58. 9 

65. 2 

59. 6 

64. 7 

69. 1 

69. 6 

61. 7 

70. 2 

71. 7 

68. 2 

74. 2 

76. 6 

80. 9 

87. 5 

95. 9 

99. 2 

104. 1 

109. 8 

109. 4 

108. 1 

115. 5 

125. 6 

125. 5 

111. 4 

(1967=100 ) 

50.'8 51. 7 

48. 1 47. 8 

51. 9 53. 2 

58. 2 58. 3 

59. 2 58. 7 

65. 2 64. 9 

59. 3 59. 4 

65. 6 66. 0 

68. 7 68. 7 

69. 3 69. 4 

61. 8 62. 6 

71. 0 71. 3 

71. 3 70. 9 

68. 9 69. 8 

74. 2 74. 1 

76. 9 77. 3 

81. 6 81. 8 

88. 2 88. 8 

96. 3 97. 4 

99. 1 99. 3 

105. 0 105. 7 

110. 0 110. 5 

109. 1 108. 5 

108. 6 108. 6 

116. 1 115. 8 

126. 0 126. 2 

125. 7 125. 5 

111. 8 112. 7 

51. 8 

47. 2 

55. 2 

57. 6 

57. 7 

65. 1 

59. 2 

66. 6 

66. 3 

69. 4 

63. 6 

70. 6 

70. 5 

69. 9 

74. 5 

77. 4 

82. 4 

89. 7 

97. 5 

99. 5 

106. 3 

111. 0 

108. 7 

108. 4 

116. 7 

126. 9 

125. 7 

113. 7 

51. 8 

47. 7 

56. 9 

57. 9 

60. 2 

64. 4 

59. 2 

66. 5 

68. 6 

69. 5 

64. 2 

68. 6 

70. 2 

70. 6 

74. 7 

77. 5 

82. 8 

90. 1 

97. 8 

100. 3 

106. 1 

111. 4 

108. 4 

108. 4 

118. 2 

126. 6 

125. 2 

115. 4 

: INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

-li! 2 

-11. 6 

30. 0 

4 . 2 

-4. 0 

0 . 0 

-3. 9 

16. 1 

11. 0 

-11. 3 

-16. 0 

20. 9 

3 . 4 

5 . 4 

6 . 7 

9 . 9 

14. 4 

5 . 7 

2 . 5 

3 . 7 

2 . 3 

2 . 2 

-3. 2 

4 . 5 

11. 0 

0 . 0 

-2. 8 

5 . 5 

9 . 9 23. 5 

-11. 7 -7. 2 

29. 3 34. 6 

0 . 0 2. 1 

6 . 3 -9. 7 

0 . 0 -5. 4 

-5. 9 2. 0 

18. 0 7. 6 

-6. 7 0. 0 

-5. 1 1. 7 

2 . 0 16. 7 

14. 6 5. 2 

-6. 5 -6. 5 

13. 0 16. 8 

0 . 0 -1. 6 

4 . 8 6. 4 

10. 9 3. 0 

10. 0 8. 5 

5 . 1 14. 6 

-1. 2 2. 4 

10. 9 8. 3 

2 . 2 5. 6 

-3. 2 -6. 4 

5 . 7 0. 0 

6 . 4 -3. 1 

3 . 9 1. 9 

1 . 9 -1. 9 

4 . 4 10. 1 

2 . 3 

-14. 1 

55. 7 

-13. 5 

-18. 6 

3 . 8 

-4. 0 

11. 5 

-34. 7 

0 . 0 

20. 9 

-11. 2 

-6. 6 

1 . 7 

6 . 7 

1 . 6 

9 . 2 

12. 9 

1 . 2 

2 . 4 

7 . 0 

5 . 6 

2 . 2 

-2. 2 

9 . 7 

6 . 9 

1 . 9 

11. 2 

0 . 0 

13. 5 

43. 9 

6 . 4 

66. 4 

-12. 2 

0 . 0 

-1. 8 

50. 6 

1 . 7 

11. 9 

-29. 2 

-5. 0 

12. 7 

3 . 3 

1 . 6 

6 . 0 

5 . 5 

3 . 8 

10. 1 

-2. 2 

4 . 4 

-3. 3 

0 . 0 

16. 6 

-2. 8 

-4. 7 

19. 5 

: INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

3^2 

-11. 6 

34. 4 

3 . 5 

0 . 7 

3 . 8 

-7. 1 

19. 1 

1 . 2 

-6. 1 

-10. 3 

16. 8 

-4. 4 

9 . 2 

5 . 6 

6 . 5 

8 . 2 

9 . 1 

7 . 8 

1 . 2 

5 . 9 

3 . 0 

-2. 2 

4 . 9 

10. 3 

2 . 9 

-1. 3 

-1. 8 

... ... 6 . 4 11. 6 

-10. 2 -11. 0 

31. 3 39. 4 

2 . 1 -4. 1 

-2. 7 -7. 9 

-1. 8 -0. 6 

-2. 6 -2. 7 

13. 8 12. 3 

1 . 2 -15. 2 

-5. 0 -1. 1 

0 . 0 12. 9 

13. 4 2. 3 

-3. 3 -6. 5 

11. 7 10. 3 

1 . 6 1. 6 

7 . 0 4. 2 

9 . 3 7. 6 

8 . 0 10. 4 

7 . 3 6. 8 

1 . 6 1. 2 

7 . 1 8. 7 

3 . 3 4. 4 

-4. 3 -2. 5 

3 . 4 1. 1 

4 . 6 4. 2 

1 . 9 4. 2 

-1. 0 0. 6 

6 . 7 8. 5 

8 . 1 

-3. 3 

44. 5 

-2. 0 

6 . 9 

-4. 8 

-0. 7 

5 . 6 

-0. 6 

1 . 2 

16. 5 

-12. 9 

-6. 0 

10. 2 

2 . 7 

3 . 2 

6 . 0 

8 . 9 

6 . 4 

4 . 9 

4 . 3 

5 . 2 

-2. 5 

-0. 7 

7 . 4 

1 . 9 

-1. 6 

13. 5 

0 . 8 

4 . 2 

24. 5 

-4. 1 

23. 7 

-7. 8 

0 . 7 

6 . 8 

2 . 9 

-3. 4 

14. 8 

-14. 8 

-5. 5 

4 . 7 

3 . 3 

3 . 7 

8 . 6 

7 . 4 

3 . 3 

4 . 5 

3 . 8 

4 . 0 

-1. 5 

1 . 9 

10. 8 

3 . 2 

-2. 8 

13. 4 

51. 8 

48. 3 

56. 2 

57. 7 

61. 9 

63. 6 

59. 5 

67. 1 

69. 2 

68. 8 

64. 8 

68. 5 

69. 9 

70. 6 

74. 7 

78. 0 

83. 5 

90. 4 

98. 2 

100. 4 

106. 7 

111. 6 

108. 1 

109. 1 

118. 8 

127. 2 

124. 6 

116. 3 

Oct. 

51. 9 

46. 3 

56. 3 

57. 9 

62. 7 

63. 3 

59. 8 

67. 7 

69. 9 

68. 1 

65. 2 

68. 1 

69. 6 

71. 5 

74. 9 

78. 6 

82. 7 

91. 6 

98. 7 

100. 3 

107. 3 

112. 0 

105. 8 

109. 3 

120. 4 

128. 2 

123. 3 

116. 7 

Nov. 

51. 5 

47. 2 

56. 1 

58. 1 

63. 1 

62. 2 

60. 9 

68. 1 

69. 7 

67. 0 

66. 7 

68. 8 

68. 8 

72. 5 

75. 3 

78. 4 

84. 1 

92. 5 

98. 7 

101. 9 

107. 9 

110. 9 

104. 9 

110. 2 

121. 6 

128. 8 

119. 9 

116. 9 

OVER 1-MONTH SPANS ' 

o!o 

16. 2 

-13. 8 

-4. 1 

39. 7 

-13. 9 

6 . 3 

11. 4 

11. 0 

-11. 4 

11. 8 

-1. 7 

-5. 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

8 . 0 

10. 6 

4 . 1 

5 . 0 

1 . 2 

7 . 0 

2 . 2 

-3. 3 

8 . 0 

6 . 3 

5 . 8 

-5. 6 

9 . 8 

OVER 3 -

6!8 -7. 4 

8 . 2 

2 . 1 

39. 4 

-10. 6 

4 . 1 

6 . 8 

23. 6 

-7. 3 

10. 4 

-13. 4 

-5. 0 

9 . 5 

2 . 2 

6 . 3 

1 . 5 

8 . 7 

5 . 0 

3 . 3 

3 . 8 

3 . 7 

-10. 3 

3 . 4 

13. 3 

4 . 2 

-7. 4 

11. 0 

2 . 3 

-39. 8 

2 . 2 

4 . 2 

16. 7 

-5. 5 

6 . 2 

11. 3 

12. 8 

-11. 5 

7 . 7 

-6. 8 

-5. 0 

16. 4 

3 . 3 

9 . 6 

-10. 9 

17. 1 

6 . 3 

-1. 2 

7 . 0 

4 . 4 

-22. 7 

2 . 2 

17. 4 

9 . 9 

-11. 8 

4 . 2 

-8. 9 

26. 0 

-4. 2 

4 . 2 

7 . 9 

-19. 0 

24. 4 

7 . 3 

-3. 4 

-17. 8 

31. 4 

13. 1 

-13. 0 

18. 1 

6 . 6 

-3. 0 

22. 3 

12. 4 

0 . 0 

20. 9 

6 . 9 

-11. 2 

-9. 7 

10. 3 

12. 6 

5 . 8 

-28. 5 

2 . 1 

10NTH SPANS' 

-2i 3 

-4. 1 

-5. 5 

1 . 4 

20. 7 

-13. 0 

12. 0 

10. 0 

6 . 6 

-13. 6 

16. 5 

1 . 2 

-7. 7 

11. 2 

3 . 3 

4 . 7 

6 . 4 

11. 1 

3 . 7 

6 . 5 

7 . 0 

-1. 8 

-12. 3 

6 . 8 

12. 0 

7 . 1 

-15. 9 

5 . 3 

-5. 3 

-4. 1 

8 . 8 

2 . 8 

12. 1 

-14. 8 

14. 9 

8 . 6 

5 . 9 

-16. 3 

10. 9 

18. 0 

-11. 5 

13. 7 

1 . 6 

4 . 7 

9 . 4 

13. 5 

2 . 5 

10. 8 

5 . 7 

-2. 1 

-5. 4 

7 . 9 

13. 4 

2 . 2 

-24. 4 

4 . 5 

Dec. 

51. 1 

47. 8 

57. 4 

58. 1 

63. 7 

61. 1 

61. 6 

68. 5 

70. 2 

65. 8 

66. 5 

71. 4 

67. 8 

72. 9 

75. 0 

78. 9 

85. 4 

93. 3 

98. 8 

103. 0 

108. 2 

111. 0 

106. 6 

111. 2 

122. 6 

127. 9 

116. 2 

117. 6 

- 8 ! 9 

16. 4 

31. 6 

0 . 0 

12. 0 

-19. 3 

14. 7 

7 . 3 

9 . 0 

-19. 5 

-3. 5 

56. 1 

-16. 1 

6 . 8 

-4. 7 

7 . 9 

20. 2 

10. 9 

1 . 2 

13. 8 

3 . 4 

1 . 1 

21. 3 

11. 4 

10. 3 

-8. 1 

-31. 3 

7 . 4 

-13l 9 

20. 4 

12. 6 

2 . 8 

8 . 6 

-17. 1 

17. 8 

5 . 4 

0 . 0 

-18. 0 

14. 9 

27. 0 

-11. 0 

5 . 7 

0 . 5 

3 . 1 

15. 3 

10. 4 

2 . 5 

9 . 5 

4 . 9 

-7. 6 

6 . 6 

13. 8 

11. 8 

-4. 3 

-27. 2 

7 . 0 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

50. 6 

49. 6 

48. 8 

57. 9 

58. 8 

64. 6 

6U. 2 

63. 0 

68. 5 

7U. 2 

63. 6 

bd.3 

72. 0 

67. 6 

73. 2 

75. 6 

79. 7 

86. 4 

94. 7 

99. 0 

103. 3 

109. 1 

109. 7 

107. 5 

113. 6 

124. 8 

126. 2 

112. 4 

-14! 5 

18. 8 

4 . 6 

7 . 3 

9 . 8 

-8. 1 

15. 9 

0 . 0 

0 . 7 

-18. 0 

16. 6 

1 . 1 

0 . 8 

5 . 4 

5 . 6 

5 . 8 

8 . 2 

10. 7 

0 . 5 

3 . 7 

5 . 3 

-4. 4 

4 . 3 

12. 6 

10. 2 

-6. 3 

-17. 0 

-lill 15. 3 

5 . 8 

6 . 1 

9 . 1 

-8. 2 

15. 1 

1 . 8 

1 . 0 

-18. 4 

14. 5 

6 . 0 

-1. 2 

6 . 2 

5 . 4 

7 . 7 

9 . 3 

9 . 5 

1 0. 1 

1

 5. 3 

| 4. 9 

-3. 4 

5 . 3 

11. 2 

9 . 4 

-6. 2 

-16. 2 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

51. 0 5l! 8 

48. 2 47. 7 

52. 0 56. 1 

58. 2 57. 7 

58. 9 59. 9 

65. 1 64. 4 

59. 4 59. 3 

65. 4 66. 7 

68. 8 68. 0 

69. 4 69. 2 

62. 0 64. 2 

70. 8 69. 2 

71. 3 70. 2 

69. 0 70. 4 

74. 2 74. 6 

76. 9 77. 6 

81. 4 82. 9 

88. 2 90. 1 

96. 5 97. 8 

99. 2 100. 1 

104. 9 106. 4 

110. 1 111. 3 

109. 0 108. 4 

108. 4 108. 6 

115. 8 117. 9 

125. 9 126. 9 

125. 6 125. 2 

112. 0 115. 1 

AVERAGE FOR 

7 . 4 o'.Q 

-10. 2 5. 2 

31. 3 28. 6 

2 . 1 -3. 7 

-2. 5 29. 2 

-1. 8 -7. 4 

-2. 6 0. 8 

13. 9 7. 0 

1 . 4 9. 0 

-4. 9 -3. 2 

0 . 9 14. 9 

13. 6 -14. 0 

-3. 2 -5. 5 

11. 7 4. 8 

1 . 7 3. 3 

7 . 0 3. 7 

9 . 4 8. 6 

8 . 1 7. 5 

7 . 4 3. 3 

1 . 6 4. 6 

7 . 2 3. 9 

3 . 3 4. 1 

-4. 3 -1. 5 

3 . 4 1. 9 

4 . 8 10. 9 

1 . 9 3. 3 

-0. 9 -2. 8 

6 . 7 13. 5 

AVERAGE FOR 

1.1 3^2 

-10. 9 -2. 2 

35. 0 25. 7 

0 . 5 -1. 3 

-3. 3 23. 3 

0 . 5 -7. 7 

-4. 1 1. 4 

15. 1 6. 4 

-4. 3 8. 6 

-4. 1 -3. 2 

0 . 9 13. 9 

10. 8 -13. 7 

-4. 7 -5. 5 

10. 4 8. 1 

2 . 9 2. 7 

5 . 9 4. 4 

8 . 4 5. 4 

9 . 2 8. 3 

7 . 3 4. 9 

1 . 3 4. 2 

7 . 2 4. 0 

3 . 6 4. 3 

-3. 0 -4. 8 

3 . 1 1. 5 

6 . 4 10. 5 

3 . 0 3. 1 

-0. 6 -3. 9 

4 . 5 12. 6 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

51. 5 

47. 1 

56. 6 

58. 0 

63. 2 

62. 2 

60. 8 

63. 1 

69. 9 

67. 0 

66. 1 

69. 4 

68. 7 

72. 3 

75. 1 

78. 6 

84. 1 

92. 5 

98. 7 

101. 7 

107. 8 

111. 3 

105. 8 

110. 2 

121. 5 

128. 3 

119. 8 

117. 1 

PERIOD 

-5.* 2 

0 . 9 

9 . 9 

2 . 8 

12. 2 

-14. 6 

15. 1 

8 . 6 

6 . 1 

-16. 3 

11. 9 

20. 8 

-11. 4 

13. 8 

1 . 7 

4 . 8 

10. 5 

13. 5 

2 . 5 

11. 2 

5 . 8 

-1. 9 

-3. 7 

8 . 0 

13. 4 

2 . 5 

-23. 9 

4 . 6 

PERIOD 

- 7 ! 2 

4 . 1 

5 . 3 

2 . 3 

13. 8 

-15. 0 

14. 9 

8 . 0 

4 . 2 

-16. 0 

14. 1 

15. 4 

-10. 1 

10. 2 

1 . 8 

4 . 2 

10. 4 

11. 7 

2 . 9 

8 . 9 

5 . 9 

-3. 8 

-3. 7 

9 . 5 

12. 4 

1 . 7 

-22. 5 

5 . 6 

Annual 

51.*2 

48. 1 

53. 4 

58. 0 

60. 2 

64. 1 

59. 9 

65. 8 

68. 8 

69. 0 

64. 0 

69. 4 

70. 6 

69. 8 

74. 3 

77. 2 

82. 0 

89. 3 

97. 0 

100. 0 

105. 6 

110. 5 

108. 2 

108. 7 

117. 2 

126. 5 

124. 2 

114. 1 

-4.* 7 

22. 1 

1 . 4 

11. 6 

-3. 5 

1 . 3 

11. 4 

4 . 1 

-5. 9 

2 . 4 

9 . 2 

-4. 7 

7 . 8 

3 . 0 

5 . 3 

8 . 6 

9 . 3 

6 . 0 

4 . 5 

5 . 1 

2 . 7 

-3. 5 

4 . 4 

10. 4 

4 . 5 

-8. 5 

1 . 9 

-5.* 5 

20. 4 

1 . 8 

10. 0 

-3. 3 

1 . 0 

11. 1 

2 . 6 

-5. 5 

2 . 6 

6 . 8 

-3. 6 

6 . 9 

3 . 4 

5 . 0 

7 . 9 

9 . 6 

6 . 1 

3 . 7 

5 . 6 

2 . 2 

-3. 7 

4 . 9 

10. 1 

4 . 3 

-8. 3 

1 . 6 

'Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945 -.. 

194b... 

1*47. . . 

1^48. . . 

1949. . . 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

i960.. . 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970. . . 

1971. . . 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975. .. 

1976... 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947... 

194b. .. 

1949. . . 

1950. .. 

1951... 

1952... 

1953. . . 

1954.. . 

1955... 

1956... 

1957.. . 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966.. . 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976. .. 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949. .. 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957.. . 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

46.2 

49.6 

47.5 

53.9 

b0.4 

64.5 

66.9 

61.9 

68.0 

73.6 

74.3 

68.5 

74.5 

76.2 

73.7 

76.8 

79.8 

83.9 

90.5 

99.9 

100.9 

108.4 

118.7 

109.1 

105.4 

112.7 

134.3 

143.4 

Feb. 

46.5 

49.7 

47.3 

54.7 

60.5 

65.1 

66.4 

61.9 

68.3 

73.2 

73.2 

68.8 

75.7 

76.1 

73.6 

77.0 

80.4 

84.5 

91.4 

99.6 

101.6 

109.0 

118.8 

108.4 

104.4 

114.3 

133.2 

138.1 

Mar. 

930 

46.8 

49.4 

47.2 

55.5 

60.8 

65.6 

65.b 

62.5 

69.3 

73.4 

72.9 

69.0 

76.4 

75.4 

74.0 

77.0 

80.6 

85.3 

92.6 

100.0 

101.5 

110.0 

118.2 

107.3 

104.8 

116.2 

132.8 

134.5 

Apr. May June July Aug. 

. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS 

47.1 

49.2 

47.5 

56.2 

60.6 

66.6 

65.1 

62.2 

70.2 

73.9 

71.9 

69.5 

76.7 

74.6 

74.5 

77.0 

81.1 

86.1 

93.7 

99.6 

102.6 

111.7 

116.5 

106.5 

105.6 

118.6 

137.4 

130.8 

(1967=100) 

47.1 47.7 

49.1 48.7 

47.9 48.3 

57.0 57.9 

61.4 62.3 

67.1 67.2 

64.3 63.6 

62.7 63.7 

71.3 71.8 

74.1 74.3 

70.3 69.2 

70.3 71.3 

77.5 78.0 

74.2 73.6 

74.8 75.3 

77.1 77.5 

81.0 81.4 

86.7 86.9 

94.7 95.8 

99.8 100.0 

104.0 104.5 

112.7 115.3 

116.4 116.9 

107.0 106.3 

106.3 106.9 

120.1 122.6 

142.1 143.6 

128.5 124.1 

48.6 

48.4 

48.4 

58.2 

62.3 

67.7 

63.3 

64.1 

72.8 

74.4 

68.6 

72.2 

77.7 

73.0 

75.6 

78.1 

81.3 

87.2 

96.9 

100.3 

104.4 

116.2 

117.0 

107.8 

107.3 

125.9 

146.0 

124.2 

49.2 

48.1 

49.4 

58.7 

62.1 

67.7 

62.3 

65.5 

71.9 

75.2 

67.9 

73.3 

77.4 

73.1 

75.8 

78.3 

82.1 

87.8 

97.8 

99.9 

104.9 

116.6 

117.2 

108.8 

107.5 

129.2 

146.4 

124.5 

Sept. 

49.3 

47.8 

50.4 

53.8 

62.4 

68.2 

61.9 

66.1 

72.4 

75.7 

68.4 

74.4 

76.8 

73.3 

76.1 

78.5 

82.9 

87.5 

98.0 

100.0 

105..0 

117.0 

116.4 

108.7 

108.6 

131.7 

147.1 

124.4 

930-C. CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH 

10.2 

2.6 

28.1 

12.7 

16.2 

-6.9 

4.0 

15.3 

12.1 

-13.5 

-3.4 

1.6 

-13.1 

12.1 

-1.5 

-4.4 

7.4 

5.5 

2.4 

-4.6 

14.3 

5.2 

-24.6 

-13.7 

25.3 

10.4 

-13.2 

8.1 

2.4 

-4.9 

19.3 

2.0 

11.8 

-8.6 

0.0 

5.4 

-6.3 

-16.4 

5.4 

21.1 

-1.6 

-1.6 

3.2 

9.4 

8.9 

12.6 

-3.5 

8.6 

6.8 

1.0 

-7.4 

-10.8 

18.4 

-9.4 

-36.4 

8.0 

-7.0 

-2.5 

19.0 

6.1 

9.6 

-13.5 

12.3 

19.1 

3.3 

-4.8 

3.5 

11.7 

-10.5 

6.7 

0.0 

3.0 

12.0 

16.9 

4.9 

-1.2 

11.6 

-5.9 

-11.5 

4.7 

21.9 

-3.5 

-27.2 

930-C. CHANGE IN CO 

1.6 

-1.7 

17.0 

9.1 

14.7 

-6.4 

0.6 

6.1 

1.1 

-9.7 

4.2 

4.3 

-3.1 

4.5 

1.0 

3.0 

10.1 

11.7 

1.6 

6.6 

13.9 

3.8 

-17.1 

-9.0 

16.6 

3.7 

-18.2 

1.6 

-1.7 

22.1 

6.9 

12.5 

-9.7 

5.3 

13.1 

2.8 

-11.7 

1.8 

11.2 

-8.5 

5.6 

0.5 

2.5 

9.4 

11.6 

1.2 

0.8 

10.9 

0.0 

-14.8 

-6.9 

21.8 

-1.2 

-26.2 

8.0 

-3.2 

0.0 

18.2 

1.3 

13.7 

-10.3 

2.0 

13.6 

1.6 

-12.3 

6.0 

12.3 

-8.1 

4.4 

1.0 

6.7 

10.9 

14.9 

-1.2 

6.9 

12.7 

-7.2 

-9.2 

0.8 

22.6 

9.6 

-30.8 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

8.0 

-4.8 

7.9 

16.2 

-3.9 

19.9 

-8.8 

-5.6 

16.7 

8.5 

-15.3 

9.0 

4.8 

-12.0 

8.4 

0.0 

7.7 

11.9 

15.2 

-4.7 

13.8 

20.2 

-16.0 

-8.6 

9.6 

27.8 

50.5 

-28.4 

0.0 16.4 

-2.4 -9.3 

10.6 10.5 

18.5 20.7 

17.0 19.1 

9.4 1.8 

-13.8 -12.3 

10.1 20.9 

20.5 8.7 

3.3 3.3 

-23.7 -17.2 

14.7 18.5 

13.3 8.0 

-6.2 -9.3 

4.9 8.3 

1.6 6.4 

-1.5 6.1 

8.7 2.8 

13.6 14.9 

2.4 2.4 

17.7 5.9 

11.3 31.5 

-1.0 5.3 

5.8 -7.6 

8.2 7.0 

16.3 28.0 

49.7 13.4 

-19.2 -34.2 

25.1 

-7.1 

2.5 

6.4 

0.0 

9.3 

-5.5 

7.8 

18.1 

1.6 

-9.9 

16.2 

-4.5 

-9.4 

4.9 

9.7 

-1.5 

4.2 

14.7 

3.7 

-1.1 

9.8 

1.0 

18.3 

4.6 

37.5 

22.0 

1.0 

15.9 

-7.2 

27.8 

10.8 

-3.8 

0.0 

-17.4 

29.6 

-13.9 

13.7 

-11.6 

19.9 

-4.5 

1.7 

3.2 

3.1 

12.5 

8.6 

11.7 

-4.7 

5.9 

4.2 

2.1 

11.7 

2.3 

36.4 

3.3 

2.9 

2.5 

-7.2 

27.2 

2.1 

6.0 

9.2 

-7.4 

11.6 

8.7 

8.3 

9.2 

19.6 

-8.9 

3.3 

4.9 

3.1 

12.3 

-4.0 

2.5 

1.2 

1.1 

4.2 

-7.9 

-1.1 

13.0 

25.9 

5.9 

-1.0 

MPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH 

(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

5*. 3 

-4.7 

5.2 

17.9 

6.1 

12.9 

-12.1 

5.3 

18.8 

5.0 

-14.9 

9.0 

9.9 

-9.6 

6.7 

0.5 

3.0 

10.8 

15.2 

0.8 

9.8 

14.3 

-7.8 

-5.1 

7.5 

21.9 

29.5 

-25.0 

7.9 13.4 

-5.5 -6.3 

9.7 7.8 

18.5 15.0 

10.2 11.7 

10.1 6.8 

-11.6 -10.6 

7.9 12.8 

15.2 15.7 

5.0 2.7 

-18.8 -17.1 

14.0 16.5 

8.6 5.3 

-9.2 -8.3 

7.2 6.0 

2.6 5.8 

4.0 1.0 

7.7 5.2 

14.6 14.4 

0.0 2.8 

12.4 7.2 

20.7 17.1 

-4.3 1.7 

-3.7 5.0 

8.3 6.6 

23.9 27.0 

36.7 27.5 

-27.5 -18.7 

19.1 

-7.9 

13.1 

12.5 

4.6 

3.6 

-11.9 

19.1 

3.4 

6.1 

-13.0 

18.2 

-0.5 

-5.8 

5.5 

6.4 

5.5 

5.2 

13.8 

0.4 

3.5 

14.6 

2.8 

6.9 

4.6 

33.9 

12.7 

-11.9 

14.1 

-7.2 

18.6 

6.4 

0.6 

6.1 

-10.3 

15.9 

3.4 

7.8 

-4.5 

18.6 

-6.0 

-1.6 

4.3 

5.3 

7.6 

2.8 

9.5 

0.0 

1.9 

6.0 

-1.7 

9.3 

6.5 

33.2 

10.1 

1.0 

1.7 

-1.6 

27.2 

5.6 

1.9 

1.2 

-10.3 

17.2 

-1.6 

2.7 

-1.2 

17.1 

-5.5 

1.1 

4.8 

4.7 

9.2 

5.1 

5.5 

-2.8 

1.5 

6.3 

-6.0 

0.4 

8.5 

19.7 

1.9 

3.6 

Oct. 

48.8 

48.2 

51.4 

59.0 

62.6 

67.9 

61.6 

66.7 

72.5 

74.9 

68.4 

75.1 

76.6 

73.2 

76.5 

79.0 

83.1 

88.3 

98.2 

99.6 

104.8 

118.0 

115.2 

107.9 

109.5 

131.7 

146.7 

125.3 

SPANS' 

-11! 5 

10.5 

26.6 

4.2 

3.9 

-5.2 

-5.7 

11.5 

1.7 

-12.0 

0.0 

11.9 

-3.1 

-1.6 

6.5 

7.9 

2.9 

11.5 

2.5 

-4.7 

-2.3 

10.8 

-11.7 

-8.5 

10.4 

0.0 

-3.2 

9.0 

SPANS' 

2^5 

-4.9 

28.5 

3.5 

5.3 

-1.2 

-3.2 

11.5 

6.3 

-0.5 

1.2 

9.0 

-3.6 

-1.6 

5.4 

7.9 

2.0 

5.1 

5.8 

0.4 

2.3 

3.8 

-11.7 

-6.8 

9.6 

9.0 

-3.2 

-4.4 

Nov. 

49.5 

47.5 

52.6 

59.2 

62.9 

67.5 

61.8 

67.3 

73.0 

75.1 

68.1 

74.9 

76.7 

72.8 

76.8 

79.8 

82.5 

88.9 

99.2 

100.0 

105.5 

117.7 

113.6 

106.9 

110.0 

132.0 

145.2 

123.1 

18.6 

-16.1 

31.9 

4.1 

5.9 

-6.8 

4.0 

11.3 

8.6 

3.3 

-5.1 

-3.1 

1.6 

-6.4 

4.8 

12.9 

-8.3 

8.5 

12.9 

4.9 

8.3 

-3.0 

-15.5 

-10.6 

5.6 

2.8 

-11.6 

-19.1 

-0.8 

-3.3 

20.5 

7.0 

8.6 

-5.2 

-1.3 

6.8 

2.8 

-2.6 

1.8 

0.0 

1.6 

-1.6 

4.3 

8.4 

2.4 

12.4 

7.1 

5.3 

8.6 

4.2 

-15.2 

-7.2 

7.6 

4.6 

-5.3 

-7.5 

Dec. 

49.2 

47.4 

52.8 

59.8 

63.7 

67.3 

61.7 

67.2 

72.9 

75.2 

68.7 

74.4 

77.1 

73.0 

76.9 

80.1 

83.4 

90.1 

99.7 

101.3 

107.2 

118.2 

111.7 

106.7 

110.6 

133.2 

145.1 

122.0 

-7.0 

-2.5 

4.7 

12.9 

16.4 

-3.5 

-1.9 

-1.8 

-1.6 

1.6 

11.1 

-7.7 

6.4 

3.3 

1.6 

4.6 

13.9 

17.5 

6.2 

16.8 

21.1 

5.2 

-18.3 

-2.2 

6.7 

11.5 

-0.8 

-10.2 

6.* 7 

-5.7 

20.9 

9.8 

12.7 

-5.8 

2.0 

8.0 

6.2 

-3.2 

0.6 1 

-3.2 

-2.1 

2.8 

1.6 

4.1 1 

3.9 

10.3 

7.1 | 

5.3 

14.5 

2.4 1 

-19.6 

-9.0 

12.2 

8.1 

-8.7 

-13.6 

Quarterly 

IQ 

46.5 

49.6 

47.3 

54.7 

60.6 

j 65.1 

66.3 

62.1 

68.5 

73.4 

73.5 

68.8 

75.5 

75.9 

73.8 

76.9 

80.3 

84.6 

91.5 

99.8 

101.3 

109.1 

118.6 

108.3 

104.9 

114.4 

133.4 

138.7 

1.9 

-1.6 

22.1 

6.9 

12.5 

-9.7 

5.4 

13.3 

3.0 

-11.6 

1.8 

11.5 

-8.4 

5.7 

0.6 

2.7 

9.4 

11.7 

1.3 

0.9 

10.9 

0.1 

-14.5 

-6.6 

21.9 

-0.8 

-25.6 

0.0 

-1.1 

19.1 

5.8 

13.6 

-8.8 

2.6 

10.9 

1.8 

-11.2 

4.0 

9.3 

-6.6 

4.8 

0.8 

4.1 

10.1 

12.7 

0.5 

4.8 

12.5 

-1.1 

-13.7 

-5.0 

20.3 

4.0 

-25.1 

II Q III Q IV Q 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

47.3 49.0 

49.0 48.1 

47.9 49.4 

57.0 58.6 

61.4 62.3 

67.0 67.9 

64.3 62.5 

62.9 65.2 

71.1 72.4 

74.1 75.1 

70.5 68.3 

70.4 73.3 

77.4 77.3 

74.1 73.1 

74.9 75.8 

77.2 78.3 

81.2 82.1 

86.6 87.5 

94.7 97.6 

99.8 100.1 

103.7 104.8 

113.2 116.6 

116.6 116.9 

106.6 108.4 

106.3 107.8 

120.4 128.9 

141.0 146.5 

127.8 124.4 

49.2 

47.7 

52.3 

59.3 

63.1 

67.6 

61.7 

67.1 

72.8 

75.1 

68.4 

74.8 

76.8 

73.0 

76.7 

79.6 

83.0 

89.1 

99.0 

100.3 

105.8 

118.0 

113.5 

107.2 

110.0 

132.3 

145.7 

123.5 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

8.'i 14! 5 

-5.5 -7.2 

9.7 19.2 

18.5 6.4 

10.7 0.7 

10.4 6.2 

-11.6 -10.1 

8.5 16.3 

15.3 4.3 

5.0 7.9 

-18.7 -4.1 

14.1 18.6 

8.7 -6.0 

-9.2 -1.5 

7.2 4.3 

2.7 5.3 

4.1 7.8 

7.8 2.9 

14.6 9.6 

0.0 0.1 

12.5 2.0 

21.0 6.1 

-3.9 -1.6 

-3.5 9.6 

8.3 6.6 

24.0 33.3 

37.9 10.4 

-27.3 1.0 

0.0 

-2.7 

21.1 

7.1 

8.7 

-5.2 

-1.2 

7.0 

2.9 

-2.4 

2.0 

0.4 

1.6 

-1.6 

4.3 

8.5 

2.8 

12.5 

7.2 

5.7 

9.0 ' 

4.3 

-15.2 

-7.1 

7.6 

4.8 

-5.2 

-6.8 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

8.*9 ll.*6 

-5.5 -5.6 

7.6 19.6 

17.1 8.2 

9.3 2.4 

9.9 3.6 

-11.4 -10.8 

8.7 17.4 

16.6 1.7 

4.2 5.5 

-16.9 -6.2 

13.2 18.0 

7.9 -4.0 

-9.0 -2.1 

6.6 4.9 

3.0 5.5 

2.7 7.4 

7.9 4.4 

14.7 9.6 

1.2 -0.8 

9.8 2.3 

17.4 9.0 

-3.5 -1.6 

-1.3 5.5 

7.5 6.5 

24.3 28.9 

31.2 8.2 

-23.7 -2.4 

2.8 

-4.6 

23.3 

6.8 

8.9 

-4.1 

-0.8 

8.8 

5.1 

-2.1 

1.2 

1.9 

-1.4 

-0.1 

3.8 

6.8 

2.8 

9.3 

6.7 

3.7 

8.5 

3.5 

-15.5 

-7.7 

9.8 

7.2 

-5.7 

-8.5 

Annual 

48.0. 

48.6 

49.2 

57.4 

61.8 

66.9 

63.7 

64.3 

71.2 

74.4 

70.2 

71.8 

76.8 

74.0 

75.3 

78.0 

81.6 

j 86.9 

95.7 

100.0 

103.9 

114.2 

116.4 

107.6 

107.2 

124.0 

141.7 

128.6 

-3.'4 

12.1 

| 13.5 

6.8 

6.0 

-8.1 

9.3 

8.9 

3.4 

-8.1 

8.7 

4.0 

-5.1 

5.4 

4.2 

4.3 

8.2 

10.8 

1.8 

6.1 

10.6 

-5.1 

-3.9 

4.0 

21.0 

10.6 

-14.7 

-3!9 

12.3 

12.8 

6.6 

5.8 

-8.0 

9.4 

8.6 

2.4 

-8.3 

9.3 

3.0 

-4.5 

5.0 

4.0 

4.2 

7.9 

10.9 

1.2 

6.3 

10.6 

-5.4 

-4.3 

4.7 

20.2 

9.4 

-14.9 

'Percent changes are centered within the spans: 

averages of the centered changes. 

1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are 

BCD 1977 137 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Jan. 

25*6 

75. 0 

66. 7 

75. 0 

62. 5 

50. 0 

75.0 * 

37. 5 

20. 8 

50. 0 

83. 3 

41. 7 

58. 3 

54. 2 

66. 7 

58. 3 

66. 7 

70. 8 

33. 3 

33. 3 

50. 0 

25. 0 

70. 8 

87. 5 

75. 0 

33. 3 

8 . 3 

25*. 6 

95. 8 

41. 7 

70. 8 

58. 3 

58. 3 

91. 7 

33. 3 

8 . 3 

33. 3 

91. 7 

33. 3 

79. 2 

62. 5 

87. 5 

83. 3 

54. 2 

83. 3 

50. 0 

62. 5 

62. 5 

16. 7 

91. 7 

100. 0 

66. 7 

16. 7 

25. 0 

6*6 75. 0 

75. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

25. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

25. 0 

0 . 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

25. 0 

62. 5 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

25. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

37. 5 

0 . 0 

Feb. 

Monthly 

Mar. Apr. May 

950 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF 12 

10. 0 

50. 0 

87. 5 

50. 0 

70. 8 

45. 8 

75. 0 

91. 7 

25. 0 

29. 2 

54. 2 

75. 0 

20. 8 

58. 3 

62. 5 

83. 3 

50. 0 

70. 8 

66. 7 

50. 0 

58. 3 

25. 0 

41. 7 

75. 0 

66. 7 

50. 0 

50. 0 

50. 0 

60. 0 

41. 7 

70. 8 

45. 8 

58. 3 

70. 8 

62. 5 

58. 3 

50. 0 

41. 7 

54. 2 

75. 0 

8 . 3 

83. 3 

58. 3 

58. 3 

54. 2 

62. 5 

58. 3 

58. 3 

45. 8 

33. 3 

54. 2 

75. 0 

83. 3 

41. 7 

45. 8 

66. 7 

950 . DIFF 

33* 3 

100. 0 

41. 7 

70. 8 

41. 7 

79. 2 

83. 3 

25. 0 

16. 7 

41. 7 

83. 3 

41. 7 

100. 0 

25. 0 

100. 0 

83. 3 

54. 2 

75. 0 

41. 7 

66. 7 

50. 0 

25. 0 

91. 7 

91. 7 

54. 2 

16. 7 

41. 7 

951 . 

75*6 

0 . 0 

50. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

12. 5 

100. 0 

25. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

37. 5 

100. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

25. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

25. 0 

25. 0 

25. 0 

100. 0 

37. 5 

70. 8 

25. 0 

83. 3 

83. 3 

25. 0 

8 . 3 

100. 0 

83. 3 

8 . 3 

91. 7 

33. 3 

83. 3 

91. 7 

50. 0 

45. 8 

62. 5 

54. 2 

25. 0 

25. 0 

83. 3 

91. 7 

54. 2 

29. 2 

66. 7 

DIFFUSIO 

75*6 

25. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

62. 5 

62. 5 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

62. 5 

100. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

62. 5 

87. 5 

100. 0 

75. 0 

62. 5 

25. 0 

June 

LEADING 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 1 

55*6 50*6 

37. 5 50. 0 

95. 8 75. 0 

41. 7 45. 8 

33. 3 58. 3 

41. 7 33. 3 

79. 2 87. 5 

58. 3 45. 8 

58. 3 33. 3 

16. 7 50. 0 

75. 0 83. 3 

62. 5 41. 7 

66. 7 50. 0 

100. 0 83. 3 

45. 8 12. 5 

66. 7 83. 3 

87. 5 70. 8 

41. 7 58. 3 

37. 5 20. 8 

66. 7 75. 0 

29. 2 70. 8 

70. 8 37. 5 

50. 0 45. 8 

54. 2 66. 7 

70. 8 66. 7 

33. 3 66. 7 

45. 8 37. 5 

83. 3 87. 5 

JSION INDEX OF 12 

50. 0 

45. 8 

62. 5 

20. 8 

75. 0 

12. 5 

95. 8 

58. 3 

33. 3 

66. 7 

87. 5 

25. 0 

54. 2 

79. 2 

29. 2 

41. 7 

62. 5 

54. 2 

8 . 3 

79. 2 

79. 2 

58. 3 

20. 8 

50. 0 

54. 2 

62. 5 

20. 8 

91. 7 

LEADING 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 6 

45. 0 40. 0 

41. 7 54. 2 

100. 0 91. 7 

25. 0 25. 0 

75. 0 58. 3 

25. 0 16. 7 

91. 7 87. 5 

75. 0 70. 8 

16. 7 33. 3 

16. 7 33. 3 

91. 7 100. 0 

62. 5 37. 5 

8 . 3 33\ 3 

91. 7 100. 0 

33. 3 37. 5 

83. 3 62. 5 

91. 7 83. 3 

50. 0 50. 0 

16. 7 8. 3 

70. 8 83. 3 

83. 3 58. 3 

37. 5 45. 8 

37. 5 41. 7 

70. 8 70. 8 

87. 5 100. 0 

50. 0 33. 3 

25. 0 8. 3 

91. 7 100. 0 

30. 0 

91. 7 

66. 7 

33. 3 

83. 3 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

29. 2 

25. 0 

100. 0 

16. 7 

62. 5 

91. 7 

41. 7 

62. 5 

83. 3 

62. 5 

16. 7 

100. 0 

70. 8 

41. 7 

33. 3 

41. 7 

100. 0 

29. 2 

0 . 0 

91. 7 

* INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COIN 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 1 

50*6 75.6 

0 . 0 25. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

62. 5 50. 0 

50. 0 75. 0 

87. 5 50. 0 

25. 0 50. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

100. 0 25. 0 

12. 5 0. 0 

0 . 0 75. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

75. 0 37. 5 

75. 0 100. 0 

100. 0 62. 5 

100. 0 75. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

100. 0 75. 0 

75. 0 75. 0 

100. 0 75. 0 

75. 0 100. 0 

75. 0 50. 0 

25. 0 25. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

62. 5 75. 0 

25. 0 50. 0 

62. 5 100. 0 

100. 0 

25. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

50. 0 

50. 0 

75. 0 

75. 0 

75. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

25. 0 

75. 0 

50. 0 

75. 0 

62. 5 

75. 0 

! July Aug. Sept. 

INDICATOR COMPONENTS 

-MONTH SPANS) 

25. 0 20. 8 

75. 0 79. 2 

66. 7 54. 2 

33. 3 45. 8 

50. 0 50. 0 

41. 7 20. 8 

83. 3 66. 7 

70. 8 50. 0 

58. 3 41. 7 

29. 2 33. 3 

79. 2 91. 7 

37. 5 25. 0 

62. 5 50. 0 

50. 0 66. 7 

87. 5 70. 8 

37. 5 33. 3 

58. 3 75. 0 

58. 3 62. 5 

25. 0 25. 0 

75. 0 100. 0 

58. 3 50. 0 

33. 3 41. 7 

50. 0 41. 7 

50. 0 50. 0 

66. 7 66. 7 

33. 3 12. 5 

37. 5 8. 3 

83. 3 54. 2 

33. 3 

83. 3 

25. 0 

66. 7 

75. 0 

8 . 3 

83. 3 

54. 2 

41. 7 

25. 0 

100. 0 

37. 5 

58. 3 

33. 3 

66. 7 

70. 8 

75. 0 

54. 2 

41. 7 

54. 2 

87. 5 

50. 0 

54. 2 

41. 7 

79. 2 

41. 7 

16. 7 

58. 3 

INDICATOR COMPONENTS 

-MONTH SPANS) 

20* 0 16. 7 

91. 7 91. 7 

66. 7 62. 5 

33. 3 33. 3 

75. 0 83. 3 

0 . 0 0. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

58. 3 62. 5 

20. 8 58. 3 

16. 7 0. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

16. 7 0. 0 

41. 7 45. 8 

87. 5 91. 7 

29. 2 66. 7 

66. 7 - 62. 5 

66. 7 91. 7 

83. 3 70. 8 

8 . 3 0. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

91. 7 91. 7 

25. 0 0. 0 

33. 3 41. 7 

54j £ 66. 7 

87. 5 100. 0 

20. 8 16. 7 

8 . 3 0. 0 

83. 3 75. 0 

CIDENT INDICATOR 

-MONTH SPANS) 

62* 5 50* 0 

12. 5 100. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

12. 5 50. 0 

0 . 0 100. 0 

62. 5 12. 5 

50. 0 25. 0 

100. 0 50. 0 

0 . 0 100. 0 

62. 5 62. 5 

100. 0 75. 0 

25. 0 0. 0 

0 . 0 0. 0 

75. 0 100. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

62. 5 75. 0 

100. 0 75. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

75. 0 100. 0 

75. 0 100. 0 

75. 0 75. 0 

87. 5 100. 0 

100. 0 25. 0 

75. 0 62. 5 

100. 0 100. 0 

100. 0 37. 5 

75. 0 25. 0 

100. 0 100. 0 

16. 7 

91. 7 

50. 0 

33. 3 

75. 0 

8 . 3 

91. 7 

58. 3 

50. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

16. 7 

41. 7 

91. 7 

83. 3 

66. 7 

87. 5 

79. 2 

4 . 2 

95. 8 

91. 7 

0 . 0 

58. 3 

75. 0 

95. 8 

12. 5 

0 . 0 

66. 7 

COMPONEN 

50. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

25. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

25. 0 

62. 5 

50. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

87. 5 

87. 5 

50. 0 

87. 5 

75. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

Oct. 

41* 7 

45. 8 

37. 5 

50. 0 

50. 0 

41. 7 

100. 0 

29. 2 

45. 8 

16. 7 

83. 3 

16. 7 

25. 0 

83. 3 

50. 0 

83. 3 

58. 3 

70. 8 

25. 0 

45. 8 

62. 5 

33. 3 

50. 0 

75. 0 

70. 8 

50. 0 

16. 7 

58. 3 

16* 7 

83. 3 

37. 5 

54. 2 

83. 3 

16. 7 

91. 7 

58. 3 

50. 0 

8 . 3 

91. 7 

25. 0 

33. 3 

87. 5 

79. 2 

70. 8 

83. 3 

100. 0 

12. 5 

70. 8 

91. 7 

8 . 3 

66. 7 

91. 7 

91. 7 

8 . 3 

0 . 0 

83. 3 

TS 

V75.0 , 

0.0 ' 

75. 0 

87. 5 

87. 5 

25. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

87. 5 

25. 0 

25. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

12. 5 

100. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

62. 5 

100. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

Nov. 

12* 5 

66. 7 

25. 0 

50. 0 

62. 5 

33. 3 

83. 3 

50. 0 

54. 2 

0 . 0 

87. 5 

33. 3 

25. 0 

75. 0 

54. 2 

41. 7 

66. 7 

70. 8 

37. 5 

66. 7 

66. 7 

20. 8 

41. 7 

62. 5 

58. 3 

54. 2 

16. 7 

58. 3 

8*3 

100. 0 

16. 7 

75. 0 

83. 3 

25. 0 

100. 0 

20. 8 

33. 3 

0 . 0 

91. 7 

29. 2 

29. 2 

83. 3 

79. 2 

87. 5 

83. 3 

83. 3 

33. 3 

70. 8 

83. 3 

8 . 3 

87. 5 

83. 3 

91. 7 

20. 8 

8 . 3 

66. 7 

12. 5 

,100. 0 

-- 50. 0 

f- 75. 0 

'50. 0 

. 25. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

37. 5 

100. 0 

100. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

0 . 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

62. 5 

Dec. 

25. 0 

58. 3 

33. 3 

66. 7 

58. 3 

62. 5 

54. 2 

25. 0 

45. 8 

29. 2 

54. 2 

66. 7 

37. 5 

62. 5 

62. 5 

66. 7 

41. 7 

70. 8 

41. 7 

75. 0 

66. 7 

33. 3 

66. 7 

75. 0 

79. 2 

33. 3 

25. 0 

41. 7 

16. 7 

100. 0 

45. 8 

75. 0 

54. 2 

41. 7 

100. 0 

25. 0 

33. 3 

12. 5 

91. 7 

0 . 0 

25. 0 

87. 5 

79. 2 

79. 2 

66. 7 

83. 3 

50. 0 

66. 7 

66. 7 

8 . 3 

100. 0 

100. 0 

83. 3 

25. 0 

16. 7 

75. 0 

25*6 

75. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

100. 0 

10.0. 0 

100. 0 

0 . 0 

75. 0 

100. 0 

12. 5 

100. 0 

37. 5 

75. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

100.0 i 

75. 0 

50. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

100. 0 

25. 0 

0 . 0 

87. 5 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

38. 9 

77. 8 

54. 2 

68. 0 

59. 7 

62. 5 

75. 0 

37. 5 

30. 6 

52. 8 

77. 8 

23. 6 

66. 6 

58. 3 

69. 4 

54. 2 

66. 7 

65. 3 

47. 2 

45. 8 

36. 1 

40. 3 

73. 6 

79. 2 

55. 6 

43. 0 

41. 7 

27. 8 

98. 6 

40. 3 

70. 8 

41. 7 

73. 6 

86. 1 

27. 8 

11. 1 

58. 3 

86. 1 

27. 8 

90. 3 

40. 3 

90. 3 

86. 1 

52. 8 

68. 0 

51. 4 

61. 1 

45. 8 

22. 2 

88. 9 

94. 5 

58. 4 

20. 9 

44. 5 

8*3 

75. 0 

66. 7 

83. 3 

100. 0 

25. 0 

100. 0 

54. 2 

62. 5 

4 . 2 

91. 7 

41. 7 

66. 7 

75. 0 

87. 5 

87. 5 

100. 0 

100. 0 

62. 5 

75. 0 

91. 7 

45. 8 

70. 8 

91. 7 

91. 7 

41. 7 

16. 7 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

5 1 ".7 26'.4 

44. 4 79. 2 

77. 8 48. 6 

36. 1 48. 6 

55. 5 58. 3 

29. 2 23. 6 

87. 5 77. 8 

54. 1 58. 3 

41. 6 47. 2 

44. 5 29. 2 

81. 9 90. 3 

43. 1 33. 3 

57. 0 56. 9 

87. 5 50. 0 

29. 2 75. 0 

63. 9 47. 2 

73. 6 69. 4 

51. 4 58. 3 

22. 2 30. 6 

73. 6 76. 4 

59. 7 65. 3 

55. 5 41. 7 

38. 9 48. 6 

57. 0 47. 2 

63. 9 70. 9 

54. 2 29. 2 

34. 7 20. 8 

87. 5 65. 3 

AVERAGE FOR 

38* 3 17. 8 

62. 5 91. 7 

86. 1 59. 7 

27. 8 33. 3 

72. 2 77. 8 

13. 9 2. 8 

93. 1 97. 2 

73. 6 59. 7 

26. 4 43. 0 

25. 0 5. 6 

97. 2 100. 0 

38. 9 11. 1 

34. 7 43. 1 

94. 5 90. 3 

37. 5 59. 7 

69. 4 65. 3 

86. 1 82. 0 

54. 2 77. 8 

13. 9 4. 2 

84. 7 98. 6 

70. 8 91. 7 

41. 7 8. 3 

37. 5 44. 4 

61. 1 65. 3 

95. 8 94. 4 

37. 5 16. 7 

11. 1 2. 8 

94. 5 75. 0 

AVERAGE FOR 

75* 0 54. 2 

16. 7 70. 8 

100. 0 83. 3 

54. 2 29. 2 

58. 3 66. 7 

62. 5 25. 0 

50. 0 58. 3 

91. 7 83. 3 

66. 7 66. 7 

29. 2 41. 7 

58. 3 91. 7 

100. 0 25. 0 

54. 2 8. 3 

91. 7 79. 2 

70. 8 83. 3 

91. 7 79. 2 

91. 7 91. 7 

91. 7 91. 7 

83. 3 91. 7 

83. 3 83. 3 

91. 7 79. 2 

66. 7 91. 7 

25. 0 58. 3 

91. 7 75. 0 

83. 3 91. 7 

70. 8 79. 2 

45. 8 50. 0 

79. 2 100. 0 

IVQ 

PERIOD 

26* 4 

56. 9 

31. 9 

55. 6 

56. 9 

45. 8 

79. 2 

34. 7 

48. 6 

15. 3 

75. 0 

38. 9 

29. 2 

73. 6 

55. 6 

63. 9 

55. 6 

70. 8 

34. 7 

62. 5 

65. 3 

29. 1 

52. 8 

70. 8 

69. 4 

45. 8 

19. 5 

52. 8 

PERIOD 

13. 9 

94. 4 

33. 3 

68. 1 

73. 6 

27. 8 

97. 2 

34. 7 

38. 9 

6 . 9 

91. 7 

18. 1 

29. 2 

86. 1 

79. 2 

79. 2 

77. 8 

88. 9 

31. 9 

69. 4 

80. 6 

8 . 3 

84. 7 

91. 7 

88. 9 

18. 0 

8 . 3 

75. 0 

PERIOD 

37* 5 

58. 3 

75. 0 

79. 2 

79. 2 

16. 7 

100. 0 

91. 7 

91. 7 

0 . 0 

87. 5 

75. 0 

12. 5 

100. 0 

79. 2 

70. 8 

70. 8 

100. 0 

75. 0 

83. 3 

83. 3 

50. 0 

33. 3 

87. 5 

100. 0 

75. 0 

0 . 0 

83. 3 

Annual 

54*. 9 

59. 0 

48. 6 

59. 7 

39. 6 

76. 7 

55. 6 

43. 7 

29. 9 

75. 0 

48. 3 

41. 7 

69. 4 

54. 5 

61. 1 

63. 2 

61. 8 

38. 2 

64. 9 

59. 0 

40. 6 

45. 2 

62. 2 

70. 8 

46. 2 

29. 5 

61. 8 

69. i 

69. 4 

42. 4 

73. 6 

21. 5 

90. 3 

63. 5 

34. 0 

12. 2 

86. 8 

38. 6 

33. 7 

90. 3 

54. 2 

76. 0 

83. 0 

68. 4 

29. 5 

76. 0 

76. 0 

26. 0 

47. 2 

76. 7 

93. 4 

32. 6 

10. 8 

72. 2 

38* 5 

83. 3 

57. 3 

71. 9 

51. 0 

58. 3 

91. 7 

69. 8 

33. 3 

60. 4 

72. 9 

29. 2 

84. 4 

77. 1 

82. 3 

85. 4 

95. 8 

87. 5 

78. 1 

1 82. 3 

75. 0 

40. 6 

81. 2 

91. 7 

79. 2 

34. 4 

69. 8 

138 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1946... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

li/bS... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1*75... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946.. . 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951.. . 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. 

6*6 100.0 

75.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

25.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

25.0 

0.0 

41.7 

75.0 

100.0 

75.0 

75.0 

41.7 

66.7 

91.7 

91.7 

33.3 

58.3 

58.3 

25.0 

91.7 

58.3 

41.7 

75.0 

75.0 

66.7 

75.0 

83.3 

58.3 

33.3 

16.7 

100.0 

66.7 

16.7 

75*6 

41.7 

83.3 

83.3 

100.0 

33.3 

58.3 

100.0 

91.7 

16.7 

75.0 

75.0 

41.7 

91.7 

58.3 

91.7 

75.0 

100.0 

66.7 

75.0 

100.0 

50.0 

33.3 

83.3 

100.0 

100.0 

16.7 

Feb. 

951. 

o*.o 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

62.5 

62.5 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

75.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

75.0 

100.0 

100.0 

37.5 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

25.0 

0.0 

Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 

DIFFUSION INDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR 

0.0 

100.0 

75.0 

50.0 

100.0 

25.0 

100.0 

50.0 

50.0 

0.0 

100.0 

50.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

75.0 

100.0 

100.0 

25.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

25.0 

952. DIFF 

58*3 

58.3 

41.7 

66.7 

58.3 

83.3 

41.7 

75.0 

75.0 

25.0 

16.7 

75.0 

91.7 

41.7 

41.7 

58.3 

91.7 

58.3 

75.0 

50.0 

75.0 

83.3 

41.7 

83.3 

41.7 

83.3 

75.0 

25.0 

75.0 

41.7 

41.7 

75.0 

91.7 

75.0 

25.0 

75.0 

91.7 

58.3 

25.0 

75.0 

91.7 

25.0 

58.3 

58.3 

66.7 

75.0 

83.3 

66.7 

58.3 

75.0 

50.0 

50.0 

91.7 

91.7 

66.7 

33.3 

952. DIFFl 

41*. 7 

58.3 

83.3 

100.0 

100.0 

33.3 

58.3 

100.0 

91.7 

16.7 

83.3 

75.0 

8.3 

91.7 

58.3 

66.7 

75.0 

100.0 

66.7 

83.3 

100.0 

50.0 

33.3 

66.7 

100.0 

100.0 

16.7 

41.7 

58.3 

83.3 

100.0 

100.0 

16.7 

66.7 

100.0 

91.7 

16.7 

83.3 

91.7 

8.3 

91.7 

58.3 

58.3 

75.0 

100.0 

66.7 

83.3 

100.0 

50.0 

50.0 

66.7 

100.0 

83.3 

16.7 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 6 

100*6 100*6 

0.0 0.0 

100.0 100.0 

50.0 50.0 

50.0 100.0 

100.0 50.0 

50.0 25.0 

100.0 100.0 

25.0 62.5 

62.5 25.0 

37.5 75.0 

100.0 75.0 

50.0 25.0 

100.0 100.0 

100.0 100.0 

100.0 100.0 

100.0 100.0 

100.0 100.0 

100.0 100.0 

75.0 100.0 

100.0 100.0 

100.0 100.0 

37.5 25.0 

100.0 100.0 

100.0 100.0 

100.0 75.0 

50.0 50.0 

75.0 100.0 

JSION INDEX OF 6 

100.0 

50.0 

100.0 

50.0 

100.0 

0.0 

62.5 

100.0 

100.0 

25.0 

100.0 

50.0 

25.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

100.0 

100.0 

75.0 

50.0 

100.0 

LAGGING 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 1 

75.0 58*3 

41.7 41.7 

59.3 75.0 

58.3 75.0 

50.0 75.0 

100.0 66.7 

16.7 8.3 

41.7 75.0 

91.7 100.0 

91.7 83.3 

16.7 0.0 

7 5.0 '-1. 7 

75.0 91.7 

16.7 25.0 

91.7 66.7 

66.7 66.7 

75.0 66.7 

75.0 75.0 

100.0 91.7 

50.0 75.0 

83.3 83.3 

91.7 83.3 

58.3 50.0 

50.0 75.0 

75.0 100.0 

100.0 66.7 

66.7 83.3 

0.0 0.0 

JSION INDEX OF 6 

75.0 

41.7 

58.3 

75.0 

91.7 

58.3 

8.3 

91.7 

83.3 

83.3 

8.3 

83.3 

83.3 

8.3 

91.7 

91.7 

83.3 

75.0 

83.3 

58.3 

75.0 

100.0 

75.0 

41.7 

58.3 

100.0 

66.7 

0.0 

LAGGING 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 6 

91*.7 83*3 

58.3 25.0 

58.3 58.3 

83.3 75.0 

91.7 91.7 

100.0 100.0 

0.0 0.0 

58.3 83.3 

100.0 100.0 

91.7 100.0 

0.0 0.0 

100.0 100.0 

91.7 83.3 

25.0 41.7 

91.7 91.7 

58.3 75.0 

75.0 91.7 

75.0 75.0 

100.0 100.0 

66.7 66.7 

83.3 83.3 

100.0 91.7 

50.0 50.0 

50.0 83.3 

100.0 100.0 

100.0 100.0 

66.7 66.7 

0.0 0.0 

100.0 

41.7 

83.3 

75.0 

91.7 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

83.3 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

83.3 

41.7 

91.7 

75.0 

91.7 

75.0 

83.3 

66.7 

83.3 

83.3 

50.0 

83.3 

100.0 

100.0 

66.7 

0.0 

-MONTH SPANS) 

io616 

0.0 

100.0 

50.0 

100.0 

0.0 

50.0 

100.0 

100.0 

25.0 

100.0 

12.5 

25.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

25.0 

100.0 

INDICATOR 

75.0 

50.0 

100.0 

75.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

12.5 

100.0 

25.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

1C0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

Sept. Oct. 

COMPONENTS 

50*6 

50.0 

100.0 

50.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

50.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

87.5 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

COMPONENTS 

-MONTH SPANS) 

91.7 

41.7 

58.3 

58.3 

50.0 

75.0 

33.3 

75.0 

75.0 

75.0 

8.3 

75.0 

41.7 

41.7 

75.0 

83.3 

75.0 

66.7 

91.7 

66.7 

58.3 

66.7 

58.3 

83.3 

83.3 

91.7 

66.7 

50.0 

INDICATOR 

83.3 

33.3 

91.7 

83.3 

41.7 

41.7 

25.0 

100.0 

50.0 

83.3 

8.3 

75.0 

33.3 

75.0 

75.0 

75.0 

83.3 

75.0 

66.7 

50.0 

91.7 

58.3 

75.0 

91.7 

66.7 

83.3 

83.3 

33.3 

58.3 

41.7 

91.7 

66.7 

75.0 

75.0 

8.3 

83.3 

75.0 

83.3 

66.7 

75.0 

66.7 

66.7 

75.0 

66.7 

91.7 

58.3 

50.0 

66.7 

66.7 

75.0 

25.0 

58.3 

83.3 

91.7 

75.0 

33.3 

COMPONENTS 

-MONTH SPANS) 

83*3 

25.0 

100.0 

83.3 

75.0 

83.3 

8.3 

100.0 

66.7 

83.3 

16.7 

100.0 

66.7 

41.7 

75.0 

91.7 

75.0 

75.0 

83.3 

75.0 

83.3 

100.0 

50.0 

66.7 

100.0 

83.3 

66.7 

16.7 

100.0 

25.0 

100.0 

83.3 

58.3 

50.0 

8.3 

100.0 

75.0 

75.0 

50.0 

100.0 

66.7 

41.7 

75.0 

91.7 

58.3 

75.0 

83.3 

50.0 

83.3 

83.3 

50.0 

66.7 

91.7 

100.0 

50.0 

16.7 

100.0 

25.0 

100.0 

83.3 

58.3 

58.3 

8.3 

100.0 

75.0 

50.0 

50.0 

100.0 

41.7 

58.3 

75.0 

91.7 

75.0 

100.0 

83.3 

50.0 

83.3 

66.7 

16.7 

66.7 

66.7 

100.0 

50.0 

50.0 

0.0 

87.5 

75.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

25.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

0.0 

100.0 

41.* 7 

75.0 

66.7 

66.7 

58.3 

41.7 

16.7 

83.3 

75.0 

41.7 

58.3 

91.7 

50.0 

66.7 

83.3 

75.0 

58.3 

75.0 

41.7 

41.7 

66.7 

91.7 

33.3 

33.3 

66.7 

83.3 

50.0 

83.3 

83*3 

25.0 

83.3 

83.3 

75.0 

41.7 

25.0 

100.0 

66.7 

50.0 

50.0 

83.3 

41.7 

58.3 

75.0 

75.0 

75.0 

83.3 

83.3 

50.0 

100.0 

75.0 

16.7 

50.0 

100.0 

91.7 

50.0 

8.3 

Nov. 

6*6 

75.0 

75.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

50.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

0.0 

100.0 

66*7 

25.0 

75.0 

83.3 

58.3 

41.7 

75.0 

100.0 

75.0 

58.3 

58.3 

33.3 

75.0 

41.7 

58.3 

91.7 

41.7 

75.0 

75.0 

50.0 

83.3 

58.3 

16.7 

33.3 

91.7 

75.0 

50.0 

33.3 

75*6 

41.7 

83.3 

83.3 

75.0 

41.7 

58.3 

83.3 

100.0 

33.3 

83.3 

83.3 

50.0 

58.3 

75.0 

75.0 

75.0 

83.3 

66.7 

66.7 

100.0 

75.0 

16.7 

50.0 

100.0 

83.3 

33.3 

16.7 

Dec. 

6*6 

100.0 

75.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

75.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

25.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

75.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

0.0 

100.0 

25*6 

41.7 

66.7 

100.0 

91.7 

41.7 

41.7 

58.3 

50.0 

66.7 

91.7 

50.0 

58.3 

75.0 

75.0 

75.0 

75.0 

66.7 

75.0 

83.3 

83.3 

66.7 

8.3 

50.0 

83.3 

75.0 

50.0 

33.3 

58*3 

41.7 

83.3 

100.0 

75.0 

33.3 

58.3 

100.0 

91.7 

25.0 

83.3 

75.0 

41.7 

75.0 

58.3 

91.7 

75.0 

100.0 

66.7 

66.7 

100.0 

50.0 

16.7 

41.7 

100.0 

66.7 

16.7 

50.0 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

o.o 100.0 

83.3 

83.3 

100.0 

8.3 

100.0 

70.8 

54.2 

0.0 

100.0 

83.3 

66.7 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

66.7 

100.0 

100.0 

37.5 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

33.3 

8.3 

47.2 

52.8 

80.6 

75.0 

77.8 

36.1 

72.2 

86.1 

58.3 

25.0 

69.4 

80.6 

30.6 

63.9 

58.3 

66.7 

69.4 

77.8 

61.1 

69.4 

80.5 

50.0 

55.5 

50.0 

91.7 

69.5 

25.0 

52 ".8 

52.8 

83.3 

94.4 

100.0 

27.8 

61.1 

100.0 

91.7 

16.7 

80.5 

80.6 

19.4 

91.7 

58.3 

72.2 

75.0 

100.0 

66.7 

80.5 

100.0 

50.0 

38.9 

72.2 

[ 100.0 

1 94.4 

1 16.7 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

100'.6 

16.7 

100.0 

50.0 

83.3 

50.0 

45.8 

100.0 

62.5 

37.5 

70.8 

75.0 

33.3 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

91.7 

100.0 

100.0 

37.5 

100.0 

100.0 

83.3 

50.0 

91.7 

75.0 

33.3 

100.0 

58.3 

100.0 

0.0 

83.3 

100.0 

100.0 

12.5 

100.0 

29.2 

8.3 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

95.8 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

8.3 

100.0 

AVERAGE FOR 

69*4 

41.7 

63.9 

69.4 

72.2 

75.0 

11.1 

69.5 

91.7 

86.1 

8.3 

83.3 

83.3 

16.7 

83.4 

75.0 

75.0 

75.0 

91.7 

61.1 

80.5 

91.7 

61.1 

55.6 

77.8 

88.9 

72.2 

0.0 

77.8 

38.9 

80.6 

69.4 

55.6 

63.9 

22.2 

86.1 

66.7 

80.5 

27.8 

75.0 

47.2 

61.1 

75.0 

75.0 

83.3 

66.7 

69.5 

61.1 

72.2 

66.7 

52.8 

77.8 

77.8 

88.9 

75.0 

38.9 

AVERAGE FOR 

91*7 

41.7 

66.6 

77.8 

91.7 

100.0 

0.0 

80.5 

94.4 

97.2 

0.0 

100.0 

86.1 

36.1 

91.7 

69.4 

86.1 

75.0 

94.4 

66.7 

83.3 

91.7 

50.0 

72.2 

100.0 

100.0 

66.7 

0.0 

94.4 

25.0 

100.0 

83.3 

63.9 

63.9 

8.3 

100.0 

72.2 

69.4 

38.9 

100.0 

58.4 

47.2 

75.0 

91.7 

69.4 

83.3 

83.3 

58.3 

83.3 

83.3 

38.9 

66.7 

86.1 

94.4 

55.6 

27.8 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

6!6 

87.5 

75.0 

100.0 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

91.7 

100.0 

0.0 

100.0 

100.0 

8.3 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

83.3 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

50.0 

100.0 

100.0 

50.0 

0.0 

100.0 

PERIOD 

44.5 

47.2 

69.5 

83.3 

69.4 

41.7 

44.5 

80.5 

66.7 

55.6 

69.4 

58.3 

61.1 

61.1 

72.2 

80.6 

58.3 

72.2 

63.9 

58.3 

77.8 

72.2 

19.4 

38.9 

80.6 

77.8 

50.0 

50.0 

PERIOD 

72*2 

36.1 

83.3 

88.9 

75.0 

38.9 

47.2 

94.4 

86.1 

36.1 

72.2 

80.5 

44.5 

63.9 

69.4 

80.6 

75.0 

88.9 

72.2 

61.1 

100.0 

66.7 

16.7 

47.2 

100.0 

80.6 

33.3 

25.0 

Annual 

34.4 

93.8 

72.9 

91.7 

37.5 

59.4 

97.9 

83.3 

26.0 

67.7 

76.0 

1 33.3 

91.7 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

100.0 

95.8 

89.6 

100.0 

86.5 

31.2 

100.0 

100.0 

83.3 

22.9 

75.0 

•

:: 

43.8 

66.7 

75.7 

! 68.1 

64.6 

28.5 

77.1 

77.8 

70.1 

1 32.6 

71.5 

68.1 

42.4 

73.6 

72.2 

70.8 

70.8 

75.7 

60.4 

75.0 

77.8 

45.8 

56.9 

\ 71.5 

86.8 

66.7 

28.5 

38^9 

75.7 

83.3 

81.2 

75.7 

20.8 

84.0 

88.2 

73.6 

32.0 

90.3 

67.4 

41.7 

82.0 

75.0 

75.7 

80.6 

87.5 

63.2 

86.8 

85.4 

38.9 

56.2 

89.6 

93.8 

62.5 

17.4 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. r May 

961. DIFFUSION INDEX OF AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF 

1945... 

1946... 

1947.. . 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

c 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

28.6 

40.5 

81.0 

54.8 

73.8 

28.6 

21.4 

90.5 

40.5 

38.1 

35.7 

92.9 

45.2 

95.2 

23.8 

83.3 

0.0 

61.9 

59.5 

73.8 

11.9 

52.4 

40.5 

78.6 

54.8 

38.1 

23.8 

14.3 

33.3 

26.2 

64.3 

64.3 

54.8 

42.9 

42.9 

69.0 

81.0 

26.2 

73.8 

9.5 

61.9 

14.3 

54.8 

64.3 

47.6 

85.7 

64.3 

83.3 

4.8 

92.9 

19.0 

21.4 

21.4 

81.0 

95.2 

64.3 

11.9 

47.6 

71.4 

26.2 

71.4 

71.4 

26.2 

83.3 

31.0 

83.3 

23.8 

21.4 

69.0 

69.0 

35.7 

61.9 

76.2 

50.0 

40.5 

76.2 

33.3 

47.6 

11.9 

85.7 

28.6 

78.6 

45.2 

61.9 

47.6 

35.7 

*61. DIFFUSION INDEX OF A\ 

76*2 

4.8 

90.5 

45.2 

40.5 

81.0 

2.4 

100.0 

31.0 

21.4 

14.3 

92.9 

28.6 

40.5 

88.1 

61.9 

69.0 

88.1 

90.5 

9.5 

61.9 

45.2 

11.9 

69.0 

88.1 

61.9 

40.5 

0.0 

61.9 

14.3 

95.2 

42.9 

47.6 

14.3 

50.0 

100.0 

14.3 

11.9 

19.0 

95.2 

26.2 

83.3 

85.7 

42.9 

59.5 

78.6 

88.1 

11.9 

69.0 

19.0 

14.3 

90.5 

88.1 

42.9 

9.5 

26.2 

42.9 

14.3 

97.6 

31.0 

42.9 

9.5 

33.3 

85.7 

4.8 

16.7 

45.2 

90.5 

28.6 

73.8 

59.5 

95.2 

64.3 

85.7 

61.9 

11.9 

61.9 

23.8 

19.0 

81.0 

92.9 

35.7 

9.5 

19.0 

962. DIFFUSION INDEX OF I 

70*. 2 

61.7 

21.3 

44.7 

61.7 

27.7 

38.3 

87.2 

31.9 

59.6 

46.8 

34.0 

89.4 

24.5 

38.3 

55.3 

25.5 

72.3 

31.9 

38.3 

42.6 

67.0 

53.2 

55.3 

51.1 

23.4 

42.6 

66.0 

55.3 

80.9 

5.3 

40.4 

44.7 

17.0 

76.6 

89.4 

27.7 

57.4 

44.7 

17.0 

80.9 

38.3 

25.5 

61.7 

46.8 

74.5 

83.0 

29.8 

( 

29.8 

61.7 

34.0 

66.0 

44.7 

38.3 

53.2 

59.6 

17.0 

80.9 

38.3 

31.9 

57.4 

66.0 

83.0 

46.8 

25.5 

55.3 

44.7 

42.6 

59.6 

36.2 

40.4 

55.3 

(PERCENT RISING 

64 ".3 42'.9 

52.4 42.9 

9.5 69.0 

81.0 66.7 

78.6 19.0 

14.3 83.3 

42.9 31.0 

28.6 69.0 

45.2 90.5 

71.4 4.8 

42.9 9.5 

42.9 64.3 

71.4 69.0 

35.7 81.0 

73.8 47.6 

78.6 23.8 

19.0 85.7 

78.6 33.3 

16.7 81.0 

40.5 57.1 

57.1 31.0 

19.0 90.5 

35.7 45.2 

26.2 33.3 

33.3 76.2 

92.9 16.7 

52.4 28.6 

7.1 90.5 

61.9 47.6 

/ERAGE WORKWEEK OF 

(PERCENT RISING 

45.2 4.8 

19.0 50.0 

100.0 95.2 

21.4 23.8 

52.4 71.4 

7.1 4.8 

42.9 38.1 

81.0 85.7 

9.5 16.7 

21.4 14.3 

69.0 83.3 

88.1 71.4 

21.4 14.3 

95.2 90.5 

28.6 69.0 

73.8 83.3 

85.7 47.6 

78.6 33.3 

42.9 42.9 

21.4 40.5 

38.1 73.8 

40.5 40.5 

11.9 14.3 

78.6 52.4 

95.2 85.7 

31.0 57.1 

11.9 0.0 

57.1 61.9 

YITIAL CLAIMS FOR 

PERCENT DECLINING 

40.4 59.6 

44.7 28.7 

48.9 48.9 

53.2 57.4 

63.8 37.2 

27.7 48.9 

44.7 73.4 

85.1 40.4 

46.8 36.2 

46.8 51.1 

48.9 46.8 

47.9 46.8 

77.7 48.9 

61.7 59.6 

53.2 45.7 

55.3 54.3 

63.8 51.1 

48.9 57.4 

25.5 63.8 

48.9 44.7 

55.3 36.2 

53.2 36.2 

51.1 56.4 

44.7 66.0 

June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 

PRODUCTION WORKERS,. MANUFACTURING —2 1 INDUSTRIES 

OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 

45*2 

45.2 

47.6 

85.7 

38.1 

57.1 

16.7 

78.6 

40.5 

28.6 

40.5 

95.2 

33.3 

16.7 

92.9 

33.3 

69.0 

42.9 

38.1 

31.0 

54.8 

57.1 

38.1 

54.8 

47.6 

83.3 

14.3 

42.9 

83.3 

26.2 14.3 

38.1 73.8 

64.3 42.9 

81.0 64.3 

38.1 21.4 

16.7 83.3 

38.1 31.0 

64.3 52.4 

21.4 66.7 

81.0 21.4 

42.9 40.5 

78.6 78.6 

45.2 33.3 

42.9 28.6 

59.5 66.7 

35.7 42.9 

59.5 40.5 

57.1 71.4 

54.8 42.9 

19.0 57.1 

73.8 61.9 

35.7 52.4 

31.0 57.1 

76.2 23.8 

54.8 31.0 

28.6 76.2 

42.9 31.0 

26.2 47.6 

83.3 88.1 

90.5 

9.5 

81.0 

28.6 

71.4 

95.2 

9.5 

19.0 

73.8 

73.8 

57.1 

73.8 

23.8 

21.4 

38.1 

83.3 

73.8 

16.7 

26.2 

52.4 

59.5 

78.6 

59.5 

9.5 

16.7 

42.9 

71.4 

21.4 

76.2 

64.3 

50.0 

59.5 

59.5 

16.7 

61.9 

31.0 

76.2 

69.0 

64.3 

4.8 

4U.5 

52.4 

85.7 

88.1 

4.8 

57.1 

66.7 

71.4 

50.0 

40.5 

52.4 

26.2 

76.2 

83.3 

71.4 

33.3 

38.1 

66.7 

71.4 

38.1 

19.0 

57.1 

69.0 

31.0 

23.8 

92.9 

66.7 

16.7 

35.7 

90.5 

50.0 

16.7 

71.4 

64.3 

19.0 

61.9 

73.8 

40.5 

76.2 

23.8 

45.2 

54.8 

78.6 

57.1 

73.8 

4.8 

73.8 

69.0 

14.3 

59.5 

38.1 

73.8 

59.5 

35.7 

40.5 

33.3 

66.7 

35.7 

52.4 

69.0 

7.1 

19.0 

28.6 

76.2 

83.1 

78.6 

19.0 

35.7 

45.2 

71.4 

59.5 

73.8 

23.8 

35.7 

19.0 

88.1 

PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING—21 INDUSTRIES 

OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) 

26*2 

21.4 

47.6 

90.5 

19.0 

71.4 

9.5 

59.5 

90.5 

21.4 

4.8 

90.5 

40.5 

9.5 

97.6 

50.0 

76.2 

83.3 

50.0 

23.8 

23.8 

90.5 

28.6 

9.5 

59.5 

90.5 

71.4 

16.7 

73.8 

50.0 59.5 

16.7 0.0 

42.9 50.0 

95.2 95.2 

35.7 26.2 

66.7 73.8 

9.5 0.0 

73.8 78.6 

92.9 81.0 

19.0 35.7 

0.0 2.4 

100.0 95.2 

38.1 42.9 

9.5 7.1 

95.2 90.5 

45.2 23.8 

66.7 57.1 

71.4 95.2 

59.5 71.4 

14.3 11.9 

71.4 66.7 

31.0 50.0 

66.7 21.4 

16.7 21.4 

76.2 81.0 

73.8 57.1 

31.0 23.8 

4.8 4.8 

90.5 90.5 

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, 

OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 

38'.3 

50.0 

61.7 

34.0 

44.7 

42.6 

55.3 

38.3 

41.5 

70.2 

19.1 

68.1 

48.9 

51.1 

57.4 

55.3 

53.2 

23.4 

42.6 

40.4 

53.2 

57.4 

34.0 

46.8 

29.8 89.4 

46.8 27.7 

57.4 17.0 

71.3 46.8 

40.4 68.1 

36.2 54.3 

59.6 46.8 

51.1 45.7 

62.8 19.1 

46.8 57.4 

63.8 61.7 

44.7 44.7 

63.8 51.1 

34.0 38.3 

17.0 72.3 

34.0 72.3 

57.4 40.4 

51.1 59.6 

59.6 42.6 

57.4 25.5 

66.0 66.0 

63.8 46.8 

75.5 48.9 

68.1 42.6 

33.3 

14.3 

90.5 

78.6 

26.2 

90.5 

0.0 

92.9 

85.7 

21.4 

4.8 

92.9 

35.7 

38.1 

66.7 

26.2 

50.0 

85.7 

90.5 

11.9 

31.0 

81.0 

31.0 

54.8 

78.6 

23.8 

16.7 

45.2 

95.2 

STATE PR 

-» . . 

74*. 5 

38.3 

53.2 

47.9 

44.7 

27.7 

60.6 

40.4 

68.1 

47.9 

42.6 

44.7 

53.2 

78.7 

80.9 

60.6 

63.8 

38.3 

31.9 

46.8 

46.8 

44.7 

28.7 

28.7 

23.8 

4.8 

78.6 

81.0 

42.9 

64.3 

0.0 

92.9 

38.1 

54.8 

7.1 

100.0 

11.9 

9.5 

92.9 

21.4 

59.5 

88.1 

97.6 

4.8 

78.6 

16.7 

11.9 

38.1 

78.6 

66.7 

26.2 

0.0 

95.2 

OGRAMS — 

51*1 

36.2 

44.7 

50.0 

64.9 

42.6 

72.3 

17.0 

40.4 

80.9 

36.2 

59.6 

34.0 

57.4 

36.2 

38.3 

66.0 

45.7 

53.2 

57.4 

59.6 

46.8 

46.8 

61.7 

47.6 

2.4 

85.7 

73.8 

38.1 

85.7 

4.8 

95.2 

33.3 

57.1 

11.9 

95.2 

19.0 

19.0 

78.6 

38.1 

52.4 

92.9 

95.2 

11.9 

61.9 

35.7 

11.9 

59.5 

88.1 

71.4 

31.0 

4.8 

90.5 

17 AREAS 

58 ".5 

19.1 

89.4 

66.0 

44.7 

21.3 

64.9 

53.2 

34.0 

72.3 

72.3 

40.4 

31.9 

44.7 

46.8 

74.5 

31.9 

31.9 

57.4 

66.0 

81.9 

72.3 

8.5 

61.7 

66.7 

0.0 

92.9 

73.8 

23.8 

83.3 

0.0 

90.5 

61.9 

28.6 

11.9 

95.2 

16.7 

28.6 

95.2 

21.4 

73.8 

57.1 

73.8 

9.5 

23.8 

38.1 

14.3 

45.2 

95.2 1 

73.8 

9.5 

0.0 

45.2 | 

34*. 6 

42.6 

61.7 

78.7 

27.7 

29.8 

55.3 

36.2 

91.5 

61.7 

31.9 

36.2 

23.4 

83.0 

51.1 

27.7 

46.8 

61.7 

57.4 

70.2 

59.6 

38.3 

2.1 

53.2 

89.4 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

42.1 

43.7 

72.2 

60.3 

47.6 

51.6 

4U.5 

84.9 

30.2 

44.4 

38.1 

74.6 

31.7 

70.6 

54.8 

60.3 

42.1 

67.5 

58.7 

42.1 

3d.9 

52.4 

30.2 

59.5 

b0.3 

b5.1 

43.2 

20.6 

60.3 

11.1 

94.4 

39.7 

43.7 

34.9 

28.6 

95.2 

16.7 

16.7 

26.2 

92.9 

27.8 

65.9 

77.8 

66.7 

64.3 

84.1 

80.2 

11.1 

64.3 

29.3 

15.1 

80.2 

89.7 

46.8 

19.8 

15.1 

50*4 

48.9 

32.6 

58.9 

53.9 

49.0 

32.3 

62.4 

31.2 

52.5 

53.9 

51.8 

58.2 

49.3 

55.3 

39.7 

44.0 

55.3 

34.0 

47.5 

49.7 

59.2 

58.9 

46.8 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

50.8 43*.7 

46.8 40.5 

42.0 62.7 

77.8 58.0 

45.2 43.6 

51.fa 65.1 

30.2 26.2 

58.7 45.2 

58.7 54.0 

34.9 58.7 

31.0 46.8 

67.5 77.0 

57.9 34.1 

44.5 31.0 

71.4 54.8 

45.2 54.0 

57.9 57.9 

51.6 48.4 

45.3 41.3 

42.9 42.8 

47.6 65.1 

55.5 55.6 

39.7 49.2 

38.1 36.5 

52.4 34.2 

64.3 49.2 

31.8 48.4 

46.8 31.7 

64.3 82.5 

AVERAGE FOR 

47*6 

23.8 10.3 

38.9 61.1 

95.2 89.7 

21.4 29.4 

65.1 77.0 

7.1 3.2 

46.8 81.8 

85.7 86.5 

15.9 25.4 

13.5 2.4 

80.9 96.0 

66.7 38.9 

15.1 18.2 

94.4 84.1 

49.2 31.7 

77.8 57.9 

72.2 84.1 

54.0 73.8 

36.5 12.7 

28.6 56.4 

67.5 54.0 

36.5 39.7 

11.9 31.0 

63.5 78.6 

90.5 51.6 

53.2 23.8 

9.5 18.3 

64.3 92.1 

AVERAGE FOR 

46.1 64*6 

41.1 37.6 

53.2 42.5 

48.2 55.3 

48.6 51.1 

39.7 39.4 

57.8 55.7 

54.6 45.7 

41.5 50.0 

56.0 50.7 

38.3 56.0 

54.3 44.7 

58.5 56.0 

57.5 50.3 

52.1 56.7 

55.0 55.6 

56.0 53.9 

43.2 49.7 

44.0 44.7 

44.7 43.2 

48.2 59.6 

48.9 51.8 

47.2 51.0 

52.5 46.5 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

68*. 2 

34.1 

46.0 

51.6 

53.2 

50.8 

46.8 

69.9 

56.3 

49.2 

25.4 

61.1 

57.1 

36.5 

59.5 

32.6 

50.8 

72.2 

74.6 

36.5 

50.8 

40.5 

47.6 

63.5 

78.6 

50.8 

47.6 

20.6 

76.2 

PERIOD 

46*0 

2.4 

85.7 

76.2 

34.9 

77.8 

1.6 

92.9 

44.4 

46.8 

10.3 

96.8 

15.9 

19.0 

88.9 

27.0 

61.9 

79.4 

88.9 

8.7 

54.8 

30.2 

12.7 

47.6 

87.3 

70.6 

22.2 

1.6 

77.0 

PERIOD 

50*. 7 

39.0 

70.9 

47.9 

46.5 

39.7 

57.8 

53.9 

45.4 

61.7 

48.2 

41.1 

49.6 

51.1 

36.9 

53.2 

53.2 

45.0 

60.3 

61.0 

59.9 

40.4 

36.2 

70.9 

Annual 

40.9 

48.6 

64.9 

50.6 

53.8 

38.7 

53.6 

63.5 

43.3 

36.9 

60.9 

55.9 

35.9 

64.1 

46.6 

56.7 

53.6 

57.2 

45.2 

51.4 

47.6 

47.2 

42.1 

56.2 

56.2 

48.2 

36.1 

60.9 

24.2 

49.2 

88.9 

31.4 

65.9 

11.7 

62.5 

78.0 

26.2 

10.7 

75.0 

53.6 

20.0 

83.3 

46.4 

66.1 

75.0 

75.2 

34.5 

37.7 

54.0 

29.6 

26.4 

77.4 

75.6 

36.5 

12.3 

62.1 

52*9 

41.7 

49.8 

52.6 

50.0 

42.0 

50.9 

54.2 

42.0 

55.2 

49.1 

48.0 

55.6 

52.0 

50.3 

50.9 

51.8 

48.3 

1 45.7 

49.1 

54.4 

50.1 

48.3 

1 54.2 

140 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

9 

1945... 

194b 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

19^5... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

19 59... 

19t>0... 

19bl... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

I9b5... 

1906... 

1967.. . 

196S... 

1909... 

197U... 

1971... 

1972... 

19 7 3... 

1974... 

1975... 

197b... 

903. 

1945... 

1946... 

1947.. . 

194B... 

1949... 

195U... 

1951... 

1952... 

19:>3... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

I95d... 

19 59... 

I960.. . 

1901.. . 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

196b... 

I9b7... 

196b... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

963. 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

[ Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 

6 2. DIFFUSION INDEX OF INITIAL CLAIMS FOR 

55*3 

4.3 

93.b 

4b.8 

34.0 

4.3 

97.9 

14.9 

55.3 

80.9 

44.7 

73.4 

7b.7 

91.5 

27.7 

57.4 

7u.2 

4.3 

46.8 

btt.l 

bb.l 

19.1 

o.4 

DIFFUSION 

83.0 

67.5 

4 0. a 

56.9 

57.5 

57.2 

70.4 

73.1 

63.8 

45.3 

64.5 

50.9 

41.6 

70.6 

75.9 

58.7 

16.9 

42*6 

1U.6 

b7.2 

44.7 

31.9 

19.1 

93.6 

25.5 

53.2 

55.3 

bb.O 

72.3 

78.7 

74.5 

B.5 

51.1 

4b.b 

2.1 

61.7 

b3.8 

66. U 

14.9 

12.8 

(PERCENT DECLINING 

38*. 3 

25.5 

93.b 

29.8 

23.4 

12.8 

76.6 

51.1 

63.b 

48.9 

72.3 

70.2 

59.6 

44.7 

8.5 

61.7 

40.4 

11.7 

72.3 

76.6 

74.5 

34.0 

36.2 

INDEX OF NUMBER 

11*0 

64.4 

70.9 

36.2 

72.5 

46.4 

70.1 

70.4 

79.3 

42.2 

72.7 

69.5 

44.8 

37.5 

75.6 

76.5 

55.8 

16.9 

17.3 

77.3 

46.3 

55.1 

60.8 

65.9 

61.7 

76.3 

81.4 

50.3 

59.6 

66.0 

39.0 

41.0 

77.0 

75.3 

48.0 

27.3 

DIFFUSION INDEX OF NUMBER 

92*.l 

70.2 

24.2 

77.5 

58.4 

66.5 

80.8 

88.3 

61.1 

73.5 

76.7 

41.0 

38.4 

82.3 

83.7 

64.8 

13.7 

... 

89.9 

66.9 

28.2 

77.2 

63.8 

71.9 

78.4 

85.9 

53.6 

70.9 

71.2 

34.9 

43.6 

83.4 

79.7 

56.4 

12.8 

89.3 

54.6 

55.8 

75.4 

64.4 

74.3 

81.1 

85.9 

52.1 

75.0 

73.5 

28.2 

44.2 

86.3 

80.8 

54.7 

18.9 

44.7 74.5 

8.5 10.6 

27.7 14.9 

85.1 83.0 

38.3 43.6 

21.3 12.8 

31.9 27.7 

76.6 83.0 

25.5 12.8 

85.1 70.2 

36.2 46.8 

48.9 63.8 

74.5 89.4 

66.0 61.7 

68.1 76.6 

31.9 44.7 

38.3 51.1 

58.5 34.0 

6.4 12.8 

57.4 21.3 

78.7 57.4 

38.3 68.1 

12.8 55.3 

70.2 68.1 

OF EMPLOYEES ON 

(PERCENT RISING 

19*2 35*8 

77.6 79.8 

52.1 43.9 

55.1 69.5 

71.6 62.9 

65.9 64.4 

65.9 69.2 

71.6 65.3 

74.9 71.6 

49.1 47.4 

65.1 58.7 

62.2 59.3 

30.8 25.6 

57.6 65.7 

77.3 75.3 

66.3 58.1 

54.7 54.7 

44.2 51.2 

OF EMPLOYEES ON 

(PERCENT RISING 

15*4 23*9 

83.4 81.3 

46.6 38.3 

59.0 73.7 

71.3 68.0 

66.8 74.3 

78.1 74.9 

80.5 82.3 

81.7 79.0 

48.8 52.3 

77.9 73.5 

77.3 77.0 

30.5 20.3 

49.4 50.6 

80.5 82.0 

75.6 70.9 

51.5 50.3 

29.1 40.7 

June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS—47 AREAS 

OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) 

72*3 

4.3 

25.5 

85.1 

57.4 

21.3 

57.4 

19.1 

10.6 

89.4 

44.7 

80.9 

60.6 

78.7 

78.7 

29.8 

74.5 

25.5 

2.1 

48.9 

70.2 

57.4 

44.7 

57.4 

63.8 72.3 

2.1 2.1 

66.0 95.7 

78.7 55.3 

55.3 42.6 

0.0 4.3 

95.7 91.5 

36.2 48.9 

6.4 21.3 

100.0 93.6 

38.3 27.7 

46.8 31.9 

61.7 89.4 

80.9 87.2 

80.9 34.0 

78.7 78.7 

36.2 66.0 

28.7 24.5 

12.8 25.5 

42.b 57.4 

83.0 61.7 

57.4 8.5 

0.0 6.4 

80.9 97.9 

80.9 

0.0 

93.6 

59.6 

21.3 

8.5 

97.9 

25.5 

21.3 

88.3 

27.7 

85.1 

61.7 

70.2 

34.0 

66.0 

7b.6 

8.5 

55.3 

63.8 

80.9 

8.5 

8.5 

97.9 

PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLSOVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 

5o!3 

69.6 

37.4 

70.1 

57.2 

53.0 

62.3 

66.8 

77.8 

57.8 

69.2 

70.1 

34.6 

38.4 

70.9 

66.3 

54.4 

39.8 

54.4 72.3 

65.0 55.5 

43.3 39.3 

62.6 69.5 

53.3 63.2 

61.4 61.7 

72.8 62.3 

77.8 64.1 

65.9 66.5 

51.5 63.7 

64.2 66.3 

62.2 58.7 

51.2 31.4 

57.3 49.1 

45.9 64.5 

55.8 56.4 

49.1 42.2 

57.3 72.4 

84.0 

72.1 

34.0 

53.9 

53.6 

61.7 

80.8 

79.0 

42.5 

50.9 

58.7 

42.2 

48.0 

77.0 

67.2 

54.9 

32.6 

81.4 

PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLSOVER 6-MONTH SPANS) 

49 .4 

77.3 

36.5 

71.6 

67.4 

71.3 

80.5 

85.9 

74.3 

51.7 

75.3 

70.6 

22.7 

61.6 

79.7 

65.4 

44.5 

59.0 

.!. 

... ... 

... ... 66.4 76.4 

66.0 60.4 

26.7 24.5 

78.1 76.9 

61.1 50.9 

68.6 61.7 

78.7 82.6 

86.8 87.4 

77.2 74.9 

59.6 66.0 

78.5 78.5 

67.7 59.3 

24.1 24.1 

55.2 56.1 

80.8 79.1 

69.2 70.9 

35.8 32.0 

63.4 66.6 

sola 

63.5 

21.5 

75.7 

49.7 

65.9 

82.6 

89.2 

71.3 

67.7 

77.6 

57.3 

28.8 

62.8 

78.2 

70.9 

21.8 

72.4 

74.5 

10.6 

93.6 

70.2 

63.8 

0.0 

93.6 

25.5 

14.9 

95.7 

53.2 

60.6 

70.2 

62.8 

23.4 

80.9 

63.8 

6.4 

55.3 

70.2 

91.5 

38.3 

2.1 

97.9 

80.9 

6.4 

91.5 

b6.0 

43.6 

0.0 

97.9 

17.0 

27.7 

93.6 

74.5 

53.2 

74.5 

91.5 

17.0 

70.2 

78.7 

12.8 

51.1 

74.5 

93.6 

29.8 

4.3 

85.1 

-172 INDUSTRIES 

68.6 

48.2 

35.0 

69.5 

57.2 

60.5 

56.0 

74.6 

67.1 

53.5 

69.5 

55.8 

28.5 

46.8 

77.6 

71.2 

35.5 

64.0 

74.2 

58.3 

29.1 

70.4 

46.1 

47.6 

65.6 

79.9 

64.7 

70.9 

74.4 

54.4 

28.2 

63.1 

75.0 

77.0 

19.8 

59.6 

-172 INDUSTRIES 

8 7 M 

66.6 

19.9 

70.4 

52.4 

64.7 

79.3 

87.4 

68.0 

64.2 

77.0 

54.7 

27.6 

70.3 

82.8 

72.4 

15.7 

78.8 

90*.3 

72.4 

20.2 

73.1 

45.5 

65.6 

82.0 

89.2 

65.0 

66.9 

76.5 

53.5 

30.5 

77.6 

82.8 

67.7 

16.0 

79.4 

Dec. 

87.2 

2.1 

87.2 

68.1 

42.6 

b.4 

91.5 

31.9 

19.1 

80.9 

53.2 

73.4 

72.3 

95.7 

46.8 

78.7 

59.6 

12.8 

46.8 

57.4 

61.7 

23.4 

2.1 

70.2 

71*1 

73.6 

21.2 

68.6 

50.0 

58.4 

bb.9 

80.5 

65.0 

66.3 

67.2 

59.3 

41.9 

62.5 

76.2 

66.0 

19.8 

69.2 

. . . ] 

... 

86.8 

63.5 

20.9 

72.5 

54.2 

67.7 

82.0 

90.7 

65.0 

70.9 

76.7 

49.7 

26.7 

77.6 

84.6 

67.7 

13.7 

77.6 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

45.4 

13.5 

91.5 

40.4 

29.8 

12.1 

89.4 

30.5 

57.4 

61.7 

61.0 

72.0 

72.3 

70.2 

14.9 

56.7 

52.5 

6.0 

60.3 

69.5 

b9.5 

22.7 

1 18.5 

... 

74.9 

61.6 

44.0 

63.4 

56.6 

63.0 

72.4 

77.9 

52.1 

59.2 

66.7 

44.9 

40.0 

74.4 

75.9 

54.2 

20.4 

90.4 

63.9 

36.1 

76.7 

62.2 

70.9 

8&.1 

86.7 

55.6 

73.1 

73.8 

34.7 

42.1 

84.0 

81.4 

58.6 

15.1 

II Q IIIQ IV Q 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

63.8 72.3 

7.8 1.4 

22.7 85.1 

84.4 64.5 

46.4 39.7 

18.5 4.3 

39.0 95.0 

59.6 36.9 

16.3 16.3 

81.6 94.0 

42.b 31.2 

64.5 54.6 

74.8 70.9 

68.8 79.4 

74.5 49.6 

35.5 74.5 

54.6 59.6 

39.3 20.6 

7.1 31.2 

42.5 54.6 

68.8 75.2 

54.6 24.8 

37.0 5.0 

65.2 92.2 

80.9 

b.4 

90.8 

68.1 

50.0 

2.1 

94.3 

24.8 

20.6 

90.1 

60.3 

62.4 

72.3 

83.3 

29.1 

76.6 

67.4 

10.7 

51.1 

67.4 

82.3 

30.5 

2.8 

84.4 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

35.1 70*.2 

75.7 64.2 

44.5 38.9 

64.9 62.0 

63.9 56.7 

61.1 61.6 

65.8 72.0 

67.9 73.6 

74.8 58.3 

51.4 55.4 

64.3 63.1 

63.9 54.4 

30.3 43.5 

53.9 61.1 

74.5 59.2 

63.6 55.7 

54.6 41.3 

45.1 70.4 

71.3 

60.0 

23.4 

69.5 

51.1 

55.5 

63.5 

78.3 

65.6 

63.6 

70.4 

56.5 

32.9 

57.5 

76.3 

71.4 

25.0 

64.3 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

... 

29*6 74*5 

80.7 63.3 

40.5 24.2 

68.1 76.9 

68.9 53.9 

70.8 65.4 

77.8 81.3 

82.9 87.8 

78.3 74.5 

50.9 64.4 

75.6 78.2 

75.0 61.4 

24.5 25.7 

53.9 58.0 

80.7 79.4 

70.6 70.3 

48.8 29.9 

42.9 67.5 

... 

88*.2 

67.5 

20.3 

72.0 

50.7 

66.0 

81.1 

89.1 

66.0 

67.3 

76.7 

52.6 

28.3 

75.2 

83.4 

69.3 

15.1 

78.6 

Annual 

15*. 2 

53.0 

77.1 

44.2 

13.7 

60.1 

52.6 

20.9 

80.8 

49.0 

60.6 

72.5 

76.0 

55.8 

50.4 

59.6 

30.8 

23.8 

56.2 

73.9 

44.9 

17.0 

65.1 

68*7 

43.3 

60.1 

58.8 

[ 58.7 

66.1 

73.1 

69.2 

55.6 

64.2 

i 60.4 

1 37.9 

53.1 

71.1 

66.6 

j 43.8 

50.0 

75*.5 

37.2 

63.3 

62.6 

66.1 

77.8 

85.0 

76.4 

59.6 

75.9 

65.7 

28.3 

57.3 

81.9 

72.9 

38.1 

51.0 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

964. 

1*45... 

ly46... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

I960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

19b4... 

1965. .. 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

964. 

1945... 

1946... 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

1945... 

1946.. . 

1947... 

1948... 

1949... 

1950... 

1951... 

1952... 

1953... 

1954... 

1955... 

1956... 

1957... 

1958... 

1959... 

1960... 

1961... 

1962... 

1963... 

1964... 

1965... 

1966... 

1967... 

1968... 

1969... 

1970... 

1971... 

1972... 

1973... 

1974... 

1975... 

1976... 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. 

DIFFUSION INDEX OF VALUE 

66.7 

73.8 

40.5 

66.7 

42.9 

77.1-

31.4 

38.6 

54.3 

70.U 

28.6 

38.6 

50.0 

6 0. U 

77.1 

51.4 

44.3 

51.4 

42.9 

54.3 

42.9 

52.9 

54.3 

60.0 

60.0 

37.1 

52.4 

57.1 

31.0 

57.1 

28.6 

65.7 

67.1 

28.6 

60.0 

71.4 

65.7 

37.1 

55.7 

60.0 

65.7 

34.3 

37.1 

70.0 

45.7 

40.0 

71.4 

48.6 

48.6 

62.9 

62.9 

57.1 

45.7 

DIFFUSION INDEX 

90.1 

57.1 

33.3 

66.7 

34.3 

94.3 

64.3 

37.1 

31.4 

88.6 

42.9 

47.1 

65.7 

80.0 

88.6 

78.6 

97.1 

42.9 

51.4 

75.7 

40.0 

65.7 

91.4 

91.4 

87.1 

25.7 

54.2 

20.8 

72.9 

54.2 

75.0 

52.1 

35.4 

89.6 

58.3 

45.8 

20.8 

83.3 

66.7 

70.8 

16.7 

58.3 

85.4 

77.1 

70.8 

66.7 

56.2 

68.8 

29.2 

60.4 

83.3 

58.3 

22.9 

25.0 

9 ^ 2 

57.1 

66.7 

47.6 

44.3 

85.7 

68.6 

45.7 

51.4 

94.3 

37.1 

64.3 

61.4 

71.4 

94.3 

88.6 

91.4 

42.9 

71.4 

74.3 

22.9 

68.6 

94.3 

85.7 

80.0 

22.9 

38,1 

57.1 

52.4 

45.2 

38.6 

31.4 

72.9 

57.1 

38.6 

37.1 

72.9 

45.7 

62.9 

38.6 

52.9 

71.4 

67.1 

71.4 

40.0 

61.4 

54.3 

37.1 

48.6 

60.0 

74.3 

60.0 

42.9 

DF VALUE 

100.0 

47.6 

42.9 

52.4 

55.7 

88.6 

34.3 

25.7 

61.4 

77.1 

34.3 

60.0 

57.1 

70.0 

77.1 

82.9 

84.3 

45.7 

68.6 

60.0 

37.1 

74.3 

91.4 

88.6 

65.7 

48.6 

966. DIFFl 

75*0 

54.2 

18.8 

77.1 

52.1 

75.0 

58.3 

66.7 

81.2 

43.8 

81.2 

6.2 

85.4 

50.0 

54.2 

77.1 

83.3 

68.8 

70.8 

62.5 

16.7 

85.4 

45.8 

43.8 

45.8 

72.9 

83.3 

62.5 

33.3 

62.5 

52.1 

31.2 

79.2 

62.5 

52.1 

77.1 

58.3 

93.8 

47.9 

50.0 

31.2 

75.0 

47.9 

68.8 

70.8 

70.8 

43.8 

70.8 

79.2 

35.4 

58.3 

79.2 

43.8 

52.1 

77.1 

75.0 

64.6 

20.8 

Apr. 

I 

May 

OF MANUFACTURERS' 

(PERCENT RISING 

31.0 38.1 

76.2 81.0 

47.6 52.4 

61.9 19.0 

68.6 27.1 

51.4 44.3 

35.7 57.1 

b7.1 51.4 

20.0 . 60.0 

42.9 54.3 

28.6 45.7 

57.1 38.6 

65.7 60.0 

51.4 52.9 

64.3 58.6 

58.6 57.1 

55.7 40.0 

42.9 50.0 

47.1 60.0 

42.9 47.1 

60.0 37.1 

50.0 57.1 

54.3 65.7 

48.6 57.1 

37.1 62.9 

62.9 71.4 

75.7 34.3 

OF MANUFACTURERS' 

(PERCENT RISING 

100.0 100.0 

50.0 9.5 

26.2 50.0 

28.6 42.9 

65.7 65.7 

94.3 88.6 

40.0 21.4 

17.1 18.6 

74.3 80.0 

71.4 85.7 

51.4 34.3 

82.9 68.6 

60.0 68.6 

68.6 70.0 

81.4 82.9 

80.0 80.0 

84.3 68.6 

60.0 51.4 

60.0 48.6 

58.6 74.3 

27.1 34.3 

71.4 57.1 

82.9 80.0 

78.6 77.1 

68.6 62.9 

62.9 60.0 

June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 

NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES—35 

OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 

bl'.'l 

52.4 

28.6 

61.9 

14.3 

65.7 

87.1 

50.0 

50.0 

65.7 

b7.1 

42.9 

68.6 

45.7 

54.3 

60.0 

62.9 

55.7 

70.0 

51.4 

48.6 

54.3 

48.6 

58.6 

50.0 

45.7 

55.7 

28.6 66.7 

95.2 83.3 

47.6 38.1 

66.7 28.6 

77.1 20.0 

77.1 58.6 

45.7 65.7 

25.7 68.6 

41.4 57.1 

51.4 67.1 

57.1 30.0 

42.9 51.4 

42.9 68.6 

55.7 52.9 

68.6 48.6 

71.4 40.0 

62.9 51.4 

47.1 64.3 

42.9 71.4 

60.0 51.4 

57.1 44.3 

51.4 34.3 

57.1 51.4 

45.7 71.4 

47.1 42.9 

51.4 40.0 

80.0 45.7 

85.7 

31.0 

23.8 

66.7 

47.1 

57.1 

40.0 

4U.0 

52.y 

61.4 

91.4 

45.7 

57.1 

61.4 

60.0 

o5.7 

58.6 

45.7 

35.7 

74.3 

70.0 

71.4 

44.3 

68.6 

55.7 

45.7 

45.7 

19.0 

33.3 

81.0 

64.3 

32.9 

58.6 

68.6 

75.7 

35.7 

51.4 

40.0 

44.3 

51.4 

55.7 

62.9 

54.3 

64.3 

42.9 

48.6 

57.1 

48.6 

7.1 

54.3 

41.4 

60.0 

22.9 

65.7 

NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES—35 

OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) 

52." 4 

100.0 

9.5 

57.1 

5.7 

91.4 

80.0 

51.4 

14.3 

71.4 

71.4 

37.1 

88.6 

65.7 

60.0 

74.3 

80.0 

65.7 

57.1 

74.3 

62.9 

32.9 

65.7 

80.0 

80.0 

45.7 

71.4 

66.7 57.1 

95.2 95.2 

23.8 9.5 

38.1 52.4 

7.1 8.6 

65.7 94.3 

74.3 71.4 

68.6 64.3 

20.0 17.1 

80.0 68.6 

47.1 48.6 

32.9 42.9 

80.0 74.3 

62.9 60.0 

45.7 65.7 

74.3 " 82.9 

88.6 77.1 

48.6 34.3 

65.7 74.3 

68.6 80.0 

57.1 54.3 

45.7 62.9 

65.7 80.0 

77.1 88.6 

77.1 60.0 

37.1 34.3 

68.6 85.7 

95.2 

100.0 

4.8 

52.4 

7.1 

88.6 

87.1 

38.6 

25.7 

82.9 

45.7 

31.4 

71.4 

71.4 

74.3 

82.9 

82.9 

42.9 

77.1 

74.3 

28.6 

60.0 

81.4 

85.7 

71.4 

28.6 

74.3 

JSION INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—24 INDUSTRIES 

(PERCENT RISING 

54*2 47*9 

58.3 58.3 

18.8 20.8 

87.5 81.2 

56.2 33.3 

45.8 62.5 

72.9 62.5 

41.7 83.3 

83.3 81.2 

85.4 18.8 

22.9 33.3 

27.1 68.8 

91.7 75.0 

41.7 37.5 

77.1 66.7 

64.6 52.1 

77.1 64.6 

89.6 85.4 

58.3 72.9 

62.5 75.0 

75.0 37.5 

58.3 91.7 

31.2 60.4 

54.2 43.8 

81.2 68.8 

85.4 66.7 

35.4 79.2 

43.8 75.0 

70.8 62.5 

OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 

52*1 

58.3 

52.1 

95.8 

43.8 

66.7 

31.2 

64.6 

83.3 

27.1 

60.4 

93.8 

54.2 

22.9 

91.7 

41.7 

58.3 

56.2 

77.1 

58.3 

62.5 

58.3 

70.8 

43.8 

75.0 

75.0 

64.6 

58.3 

85.4 

50.0 56.2 

50.0 52.1 

50.0 66.7 

97.9 87.5 

31.2 37.5 

45.8 91.7 

81.2 41.7 

58.3 47.9 

43.8 52.1 

60.4 68.8 

47.9 60.4 

87.5 83.3 

64.6 20.8 

35.4 33.3 

72.9 81.2 

58.3 56.2 

62.5 70.8 

79.2 66.7 

72.9 64.6 

70.8 54.2 

50.0 87.5 

45.8 66.7 

54.2 54.2 

54.2 33.3 

58.3 43.8 

66.7 87.5 

64.6 64.6 

45.8 41.7 

87.5 79.2 

75.0 

20.8 

72.9 

45.8 

56.2 

81.2 

12.5 

62.5 

68.8 

54.2 

25.0 

83.3 

60.4 

25.0 

56.2 

77.1 

66.7 

62.5 

58.3 

70.8 

54.2 

54.2 

62.5 

50.0 

79.2 

85.4 

70.8 

31.2 

75.0 

85.7 

90.5 

9.5 

85.7 

11.4 

94.3 

68.6 

54.3 

28.6 

85.7 

40.0 

30.0 

72.9 

70.0 

62.9 

7 2.9 

91.4 

37.1 

68.6 

81.4 

34.3 

51.4 

80.0 

88.6 

77.1 

22.9 

77.1 

79*2 

54.2 

54.2 

70.8 

43.8 

75.0 

25.0 

81.2 

91.7 

64.6 

8.3 

68.8 

45.8 

47.9 

95.8 

27.1 

60.4 

58.3 

79.2 

62.5 

64.6 

66.7 

60.4 

50.0 

77.1 

75.0 

66.7 

25.0 

50.0 

Nov. Dec. 

INDUSTRIES 

83.3 

57.1 

38.1 

38.1 

45.7 

48.6 

5S.6 

80.0 

44.3 

82.9 

27.1 

35.7 

50.0 

62.9 

40.0 

54.3 

7 7.1 

40.0 

65.7 

42.9 

47.1 

61.4 

bO.O 

67.1 

60.0 

34.3 

48.6 

52.4 

85.7 

33.3 

57.1 

60.0 

71.4 

45.7 

38.b 

14.3 

42.9 

b5.7 

58.6 

4u.o 

44.3 

60.0 

6 0. u 

74.3 

48.6 

65.7 

48.6 

52.9 

68.6 

73.6 

73.6 

40.0 

31.4 

D4.3 

INDUSTRIES 

95.2 

95.2 

28.6 

47.6 

27.1 

91.4 

68.6 

41.4 

28.b 

85.7 

30.0 

42.9 

72.9 

30.0 

80.0 

77.1 

97.1 

31.4 

71.4 

85.7 

37.1 

54.3 

82.9 

88.6 

77.1 

17.1 

85.7 

83!3 

27.1 

50.0 

64.6 

66.7 

93.8 

20.8 

95.8 

68.8 

47.9 

2.1 

87.5 

45.8 

25.0 

75.0 

77.1 

64.6 

77.1 

79.2 

47.9 

70.8 

77.1 

56.2 

29.2 

75.0 

85.4 

72.9 

4.2 

81.2 

90.5 

85.7 

38.1 

66.7 

22.y 

88.o 

71.4 

51.4 

25.7 

y4.3 

34.3 

65.7 

33.6 

77.1 

82.9 

82.9 

94.3 

37.1 

71.4 

91.4 

24.3 1 

54.3 

97.1 

94.3 

65.7 

24.3 

80.0 

77*1 

27.1 

68.8 

62.5 

72.9 

58.3 

16.7 

83.3 

66.7 

68.8 

20.8 

58.3 

95.8 

18.8 

56.2 

66.7 

31.2 

77.1 

83.3 

50.0 

58.3 

50.0 

54.2 

66.7 

87.5 

70.8 

37.5 

4.2 

62.5 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

60.3 

52.4 

47.b 

44.o 

4b.7 

72.4 

39.0 

43.7 

54.3 

by.5 

37.1 

52.4 

4y.5 

:>y.5 

oo.y 

5i.y 

! bl.y 

45.7 

46.1 

bO.O 

42.9 

50.0 

59.1 

o5.7 

5y.o 

41.9 

95.2 

53.y 

47.6 

55.6 

44.8 

89.5 

55.7 

36.2 

48.1 

86.7 

38.1 

57.1 

61.4 

73.8 

86.7 

83.4 

90.9 

43.6 

63.8 

7 0.0 

33.3 

b9.5 

92.4 

88.6 

77.6 

32.4 

53.5 

23.6 

76.4 

56.3 

67.4 

62.5 

53.5 

88.2 

50.0 

59.0 

19.4 

81.2 

54.9 

64.b 

54.9 

70.8 

66.0 

72.9 

70.8 

39.6 

66.6 

64.6 

38.9 

52.8 

77.8 

72.2 

50.0 

26.4 

II Q . Ill Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

42.1 b0.3 

69.9 o9.8 

42.y 36.5 

47.6 54.0 

36.7 48.1 

53.6 b4.3 

60.U 50.5 

36.2 44.8 

43.3 50.5 

54.3 oO.u 

47.1 59.5 

46.2 46.7 

64.8 56.2 

50.0 DO. 7 

59.1 59.1 

58.6 59.0 

52.9 57.6 

49.5 52.4 

D9.0 50.0 

47.1 61.9 

48.6 57.1 

53.8 52.4 

5b.2 50.9 

54.8 61.9 

50.0 48.b 

60.0 45.7 

55.2 57.1 

AVERAGE FOR 

73.0 

luO.O 96.6 

23.0 12.7 

44.4 47.6 

25.7 7.6 

74.3 82.9 

87.6 77.6 

37.6 57.2 

16.7 20.9 

75.2 77.2 

76.2 47.1 

40.9 35.7 

80.0 75.2 

64.8 64.8 

bb.2 61.9 

7 9.5 80.0 

80.0 82.9 

72.9 41.9 

56.2 72.4 

61.0 74.3 

65.3 46.7 

31.4 56.2 

64.7 75.7 

81.0 83.8 

78.6 69.5 

59.1 33.3 

64.8 76.2 

AVERAGE FOR 

51.4 b0.4 

58.3 41.0 

30.6 63.2 

88.2 77.1 

44.4 41.6 

58.3 72.9 

55.5 45.1 

63.2 56.2 

82.6 54.9 

43.8 61.1 

38.9 44.4 

63.2 84.7 

73.6 48.6 

34.0 31.2 

78.5 70.1 

52.8 63.9 

66.7 66.7 

77.1 69.5 

69.4 65.3 

65.3 65.3 

58.3 63.9 

69.4 55.6 

54.1 57.0 

47.3 45.8 

75.0 60.4 

75.7 79.9 

59.7 66.7 

59.0 39.6 

72.9 80.6 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

51.6 

58.7 

50.8 

53.2 

46.2 

59.5 

57.6 

64.8 

31.4 

39.1 

44.3 

46.2 

47.1 

54.3 

54.3 

5b. 2 

71.9 

43.8 

60.0 

49.5 

49.5 

45.7 

64.3 

62.4 

53.3 

29.5 

56.2 

PERIOD 

90.5 

90.5 

25.4 

66.7 

20.5 

91.4 

b9.5 

49.0 

27.6 

88.6 

34.8 

46.2 

78.1 1 

75.7 

75.3 

77.6 

94.3 

35.2 

70.5 1 

86.2 

31.9 

53.3 

86.7 

90.5 

73.3 

21.4 

80.9 

PERIOD 

79.9 

36.1 

57.7 

66.0 

61.1 

75.7 

20.8 

86.8 

75.7 

60.4 

10.4 

71.5 

62.5 

30.6 

75.7 

57.0 

52.1 

70.8 

80.6 

53.5 

64.6 

64.6 

56.9 

48.6 

79.9 

77.1 

59.0 

11.1 

64.6 

Annual 

64.7 

45.6 

50.6 

43.9 

56.1 

60.1 

51.2 

42.7 

56.9 

55.1 

44.0 

55.1 

52.6 

58.0 

58.7 

58.6 

51.9 

53.7 

51.7 

53.8 

48.7 

55.4 

5y.5 

54.4 

48.6 

52.6 

95.6 

28.8 

51.6 

27.3 

73.3 

81.1 

49.9 

25.4 

72.3 

61.2 

40.2 

72.6 

66.7 

69.3 

81.0 

85.1 

60.2 

60.7 

71.3 

53.5 

43.6 

74.2 

86.9 

77.5 

47.9 

63.6 

47.2 

43.8 

76.9 

50.9 

68.6 

46.0 

64.9 

75.4 

53.8 

38.2 

59.7 

66.5 

37.7 

72.2 

57.1 

64.0 

70.8 

72.0 

63.7 

56.6 

64.1 

58.2 

45.2 

67.0 

77.6 

64.4 

39.9 

61.1 

The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1*45.. . 

1946.. . 

1*47.. . 

1946.. . 

1949.. . 

195U.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

195o.. . 

1957 . . . 

I95d. . . 

1959. . . 

19bU. . . 

1961.. . 

19O2. . . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965 . . . 

1966.. . 

l9b7.. . 

1966.. . 

19O9.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975. . . 

197b . . . 

1945.. . 

1946 . . . 

1947. . . 

1948 . . . 

1949.. . 

1»50 . . . 

1951.. . 

1952. . . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955 . . . 

1956 . . . 

1957 . . . 

1956.. . 

1959. . . 

19b0 . . . 

1961.. . 

19b2.. . 

1963.. . 

1964 . . . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968. . . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947. . . 

194B . . . 

1949 . . . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953. . . 

1954 . . . 

1955.. . 

1956. . . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

19o3.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

196b.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

75. 0 

12. 5 

97. 9 

62. 5 

66. 7 

77. 1 

25. 0 

95. 8 

79. 2 

58. 3 

0 . 3 

100. 0 

7 9. 2 

50. 0 

79. 2 

91. 7 

95. 0 

83. 3 

91. 7 

50. 0 

95. 8 

79. 2 

25. 0 

62. 5 

100. 0 

83. 3 

45. 8 

6 . 3 

Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 

96b . DIFFUSION INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—24 INDUSTRIES 

79* 2 

12. 5 

100. 0 

47. 9 

b2. 5 

b6. 7 

43. 8 

100. 0 

62. 5 

56. 2 

16. 7 

95. 8 

87. 5 

77. 1 

75. 0 

95. 8 

100. 0 

91. 7 

95. 8 

50. 0 

69. 6 

75. 0 

33. 3 

75. 0 

91. 7 

87. 5 

37. 5 

16. 7 

66. 7 

20. 8 

95. 8 

37. 5 

68. 8 

62. 5 

58. 3 

100. 0 

45. 8 

54. 2 

33. 3 

91. 7 

50. 0 

91. 7 

58. 3 

100. 0 

100. 0 

79. 2 

83. 3 

41. 7 

93. 8 

7 5. 0 

20. 8 

70. 8 

87. 5 

83. 3 

45. 8 

54. 2 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS) 

62. 5 45. 8 

75. 0 83. 3 

27. 1 41. 7 

100. 0 100. 0 

29. 2 35. 4 

50. 0 79. 2 

75. 0 58. 3 

64. 6 70. 8 

93. 8 95. 8 

39. 6 50. 0 

54. 2 37. 5 

50. 0 83. 3 

83. 3 79. 2 

25. 0 37. 5 

91. 7 100. 0 

61. 2 70. 8 

87. 5 95. 8 

95. 8 91. 7 

87. 5 87. 5 

75. 0 75. 0 

41. 7 72. 9 

91. 7 81. 2 

66. 7 75. 0 

37. 5 39. 6 

70. 8 75. 0 

79. 2 91. 7 

95. 8 87. 5 

56. 2 45. 8 

70. 8 83. 3 

45. 8 

66. 7 

52. 1 

95. 8 

39. 6 

95. 8 

45. 8 

62. 5 

87. 5 

60. 4 

27. 1 

91. 7 

62. 5 

20. 8 

91. 7 

75. 0 

89. 6 

95. 8 

79. 2 

66. 7 

85. 4 

79. 2 

66. 7 

62. 5 

75. 0 

95. 8 

83. 3 

45. 8 

87. 5 

64. 6 83. 3 

56. 2 41. 7 

54. 2 54. 2 

93. 8 95. 8 

37. 5 37. 5 

91. 7 100. 0 

20. 8 18. 8 

83. 3 79. 2 

100. 0 87. 5 

50. 0 58. 3 

22. 9 6. 2 

95. 8 100. 0 

45. 8 35. 4 

20. 8 12. 5 

100. 0 100. 0 

54. 2 70. 8 

87. 5 83. 3 

83. 3 79. 2 

91. 7 95. 8 

70. 8 66. 7 

70. 8 87. 5 

83. 3 77. 1 

87. 5 60. 4 

50. 0 45. 8 

70. 8 75. 0 

63. 3 93. 8 

87. 5 83. 3 

50. 0 4. 2 

87. 5 95. 8 

87. 5 

20. 8 

64. 6 

95. 8 

39. 6 

100. 0 

16. 7 

87. 5 

87. 5 

79. 2 

12. 5 

100. 0 

62. 5 

8 . 3 

95. 8 

77. 1 

70. 8 

95. 8 

87. 5 

62. 5 

83. 3 

77. 1 

45. 8 

47. 9 

83. 3 

79. 2 

66. 7 

4 . 2 

91. 7 

9b7 . DIFFUSION INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES—1 3 INDUSTRIAL 

lY.'l 

76. 9 

84. 6 

23. 1 

30. 8 

30. 8 

b5. 4 

42. 3 

30. 8 

38. 5 

38. 5 

69. 2 

38. 5 

53. 8 

61. 5 

53. 8 

53. 8 

61. 5 

46. 2 

46. 2 

53. 8 

50. 0 

46. 2 

65. 4 

84. 6 

84. 6 

53. 8 

7 . 7 

69. 2 

100. 0 

30. 8 

38. 5 

53. 8 

65. 4 

46. 2 

30. 8 

23. 1 

69. 2 

46. 2 

61. 5 

38. 5 

61. 5 

61. 5 

69. 2 

53. 8 

* 0. 0 

3-0.8 

84. 6 

61. 5 

46. 2 

76. 9 

92. 3 

69. 2 

11. 5 

38. 5 

30. 8 

61. 5 

76. 9 

30. 8 

61. 5 

38. 5 

84. 6 

61. 5 

23. 1 

46. 2 

53. 8 

42. 3 

84. 6 

46. 2 

46. 2 

53. 8 

30. 8 

76. 9 

53. 8 

46. 2 

61. 5 

30. 8 

61. 5 

73. 1 

84. 6 

69. 2 

42. 3 

38. 5 

30. 8 

69. 2 

53. 8 

26. 9 

50. 0 

84. 6 

46. 2 

61. 5 

53. 8 

46. 2 

61. 5 

38. 5 

84. 6 

46. 2 

50. 0 

46. 2 

69. 2 

46. 2 

23. 1 

53. 8 

46. 2 

57. 7 

80. 8 

76. 9 

76. 9 

53. 8 

38. 5 

967 . DIFFUSION IN 

0 . 0 

69. 2 

76. 9 

30. 8 

15. 4 

76. 9 

61. 5 

42. 3 

34. 6 

38. 5 

69. 2 

38. 5 

53. 8 

30. 8 

69. 2 

69. 2 

76. 9 

61. 5 

15. 4 

46. 2 

80. 8 

42. 3 

46. 2 

76. 9 

92. 3 

76. 9 

15. 4 

7 . 7 

84. 6 

46. 2 

23. 1 

15. 4 

84. 6 

69. 2 

46. 2 

38. 5 

53. 8 

61. 5 

46. 2 

61. 5 

30. 8 

61. 5 

69. 2 

61. 5 

61. 5 

26. 9 

46. 2 

76. 9 

38. 5 

46. 2 

84. 6 

92. 3 

61. 5 

15. 4 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS) 

76. 9 6i. 5 

30. 8 38. 5 

69. 2 69. 2 

69. 2 53. 8 

38. 5 69. 2 

11. 5 61. 5 

84. 6 53. 8 

76. 9 61. 5 

42. 3 30. 8 

57. 7 38. 5 

38. 5 69. 2 

61. 5 53. 8 

53. 8 46. 2 

76. 9 53. 8 

42. 3 42. 3 

46. 2 46. 2 

65. 4 30. 8 

76. 9 53. 8 

30. 8 42. 3 

23. 1 61. 5 

46. 2 53. 8 

65. 4 57. 7 

61. 5 53. 8 

80. 8 38. 5 

65. 4 76. 9 

61. 5 80. 8 

61. 5 38. 5 

46. 2 38. 5 

53. 8 

38. 5 

76. 9 

19. 2 

38. 5 

38. 5 

53. 8 

69. 2 

30. 8 

38. 5 

53. 8 

65. 4 

46. 2 

57. 7 

46. 2 

69. 2 

53. 8 

57. 7 

46. 2 

69. 2 

50. 0 

76. 9 

19. 2 

46. 2 

73. 1 

76. 9 

53. 8 

61. 5 

53. 8 30. 8 

61. 5 53. 8 

84. 6 92. 3 

0 . 0 7. 7 

61. 5 42. 3 

53. 8 26. 9 

38. 5 38. 5 

76. 9 61. 5 

46. 2 61. 5 

34. 6 30. 8 

96. 2 53. 8 

38. 5 53. 8 

42. 3 30. 8 

38. 5 46. 2 

23. 1 30. 8 

46. 2 38. 5 

46. 2 76. 9 

46. 2 42. 3 

61. 5 26. 9 

30. 8 53. 8 

46. 2 65. 4 

61. 5 76. 9 

46. 2 42. 3 

57. 7 61. 5 

61. 5 65. 4 

73. 1 65. 4 

38. 5 46. 2 

57. 7 65. 4 

7 . 7 

53. 8 

92. 3 

7 . 7 

30. 8 

23. 1 

65. 4 

46. 2 

69. 2 

11. 5 

42. 3 

69. 2 

38. 5 

57. 7 

50. 0 

69. 2 

69. 2 

50. 0 

0 . 0 

19. 2 

57. 7 

57. 7 

46. 2 

53. 8 

50. 0 

46. 2 

42. 3 

76. 9 

DEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES —1 3 INDUSTRIAL 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS) 

23* 1 7*7 

92. 3 100. 0 

30. 8 23. 1 

30. 8 30. 8 

30. 8 15. 4 

69. 2 61. 5 

69. 2 76. 9 

46. 2 53. 8 

30. 8 23. 1 

76. 9 76. 9 

69. 2 61. 5 

30. 8 38. 5 

61. 5 76. 9 

38. 5 23. 1 

69. 2 65. 4 

76. 9 76. 9 

69. 2 53. 8 

53. 8 30. 8 

30. 8 23. 1 

53. 8 61. 5 

69. 2 76. 9 

34. 6 34. 6 

61. 5 69. 2 

92. 3 84. 6 

92. 3 92. 3 

61. 5 46. 2 

38. 5 61. 5 

46. 2 

15. 4 

100. 0 

23. 1 

23. 1 

30. 8 

69. 2 

76. 9 

53. 8 

23. 1 

76. 9 

69. 2 

38. 5 

53. 8 

15. 4 

61. 5 

80. 8 

53. 8 

15. 4 

23. 1 

73. 1 

92. 3 

38. 5 

69. 2 

84. 6 

92. 3 

46. 2 

61. 5 

38. 5 38. 5 

23. 1 23. 1 

100. 0 100. 0 

23. 1 15. 4 

38. 5 38. 5 

38. 5 30. 8 

61. 5 53. 8 

76. 9 84. 6 

53. 8 46. 2 

23. 1 15. 4 

76. 9 84. 6 

61. 5 46. 2 

30. 8 30. 8 

53. 8 53. 8 

30. 8 38. 5 

61. 5 61. 5 

84. 6 76. 9 

46. 2 46. 2 

7 . 7 7. 7 

23. 1 30. 8 

76. 9 57. 7 

76. 9 76. 9 

19. 2 15. 4 

53. 8 53. 8 

76. 9 61. 5 

92. 3 69. 2 

46. 2 23. 1 

53. 8 53. 8 

30. 8 

53. 8 

100. 0 

15. 4 

38. 5 

23. 1 

61. 5 

84. 6 

30. 8 

23. 1 

69. 2 

61. 5 

38. 5 

53. 8 

38. 5 

61. 5 

69. 2 

46. 2 

7 . 7 

46. 2 

76. 9 

69. 2 

15. 4 

46. 2 

69. 2 

76. 9 

23. 1 

46. 2 

89. 6 

14. 6 

83. 3 

87. 5 

58. 3 

95. 8 

8 . 3 

91. 7 

91. 7 

70. 8 

4 . 2 

95. 8 

70. 8 

16. 7 

87. 5 

75. 0 

83. 3 

85. 4 

91. 7 

62. 5 

87. 5 

75. 0 

39. 6 

50. 0 

95. 8 

87. 5 

52. 1 

4 . 2 

91. 7 

Nov. 

95. 8 

b . 3 

85. 4 

62. 5 

75. 0 

91. 7 

18. 8 

100. 0 

79. 2 

83. 3 

2 . 1 

100. 0 

83. 3 

25. 0 

95. 8 

77. 1 

87. 5 

87. 5 

91. 7 

50. 0 

89. 6 

87. 5 

35. 4 

52. 1 

95. 8 

83. 3 

58. 3 

12. 5 

91. 7 

MATERIALS 

61. 5 

30. 8 

84. 6 

69. 2 

38. 5 

38. 5 

69. 2 

38. 5 

38. 5 

23. 1 

53. 8 

46. 2 

23. 1 

34. 6 

53. 8 

69. 2 

73. 1 

15. 4 

19. 2 

46. 2 

69. 2 

46. 2 

30. 8 

46. 2 

61. 5 

46. 2 

19. 2 

46. 2 

46. 2 

46. 2 

69. 2 

23. 1 

30. 8 

69. 2 

53. 8 

46. 2 

46. 2 

7 . 7 

73. 1 

46. 2 

23. 1 

15. 4 

53. 8 

50. 0 

61. 5 

34. 6 

30. 8 

46. 2 

69. 2 

50. 0 

42. 3 

34. 6 

65. 4 

69. 2 

23. 1 

42. 3 

MATERIALS 

23* 1 

53. 8 

100. 0 

15. 4 

30. 8 

23. 1 

53. 8 

76. 9 

38. 5 

23. 1 

76. 9 

53. 8 

38. 5 

53. 8 

53. 8 

53. 8 

69. 2 

46. 2 

0 . 0 

38. 5 

92. 3 

69. 2 

15. 4 

53. 8 

76. 9 

100. 0 

23. 1 

46. 2 

7 . 7 

69. 2 

100. 0 

15. 4 

46. 2 

38. 5 

61. 5 

69. 2 

53. 8 

23. 1 

73. 1 

46. 2 

46. 2 

53. 8 

46. 2 

61. 5 

76. 9 

38. 5 

0 . 0 

30. 8 

92. 3 

69. 2 

30. 8 

80. 8 

84. 6 

84. 6 

23. 1 

61. 5 

Dec. 

83. 3 

29. 2 

91. 7 

66. 7 

66. 7 

83. 3 

25. 0 

100. 0 

75. 0 

79. 2 

4 . 2 

91. 7 

77. 1 

43. 8 

91. 7 

75. 0 

75. 0 

93. 8 

95. 8 

41. 7 

91. 7 

79. 2 

33. 3 

41. 7 

93. 8 

63. 3 

45. 8 

4 . 2 

95. 8 

30. 8 

38. 5 

76. 9 

61. 5 

38. 5 

38. 5 

50. 0 

57.7 ] 

42. 3 

46. 2 

38. 5 

61. 5 

15. 4 

69. 2 

53. 8 

57. 7 

38. 5 

61. 5 

57. 7 

61. 5 

38. 5 

50. 0 

19. 2 

61. 5 

69. 2 

69. 2 

7 . 7 

50. 0 

7 i 7 

76. 9 

100. 0 

30. 8 

38. 5 

46. 2 

61. 5 

53. 8 

53. 8 

15. 4 

61. 5 

46. 2 

38. 5 

46. 2 

61. 5 

76. 9 

69. 2 

53. 8 

0 . 0 

30. 8 

84. 6 

76. 9 

46. 2 

84. 6 

88. 5 

76. 9 

23. 1 

69. 2 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

73. 6 

15. 3 

97. 9 

49. 3 

66. 0 

68. 8 

42. 4 

98. 6 

62. 5 

50. 2 

19. 4 

95. 8 

72. 2 

72. 9 

70. 8 

95. 8 

98. 6 

84. 7 

90. 3 

47. 2 

93. 1 

7o. 4 

26. 4 

69. 4 

93. 1 

64. 7 

43. 0 

26. 4 

26. 2 

69. 2 

71. 8 

26. 9 

47. 4 

51. 3 

65. 4 

55. 1 

35. 9 

43. 6 

51. 3 

50. 0 

69. 2 

48. 7 

52. 6 

51. 3 

51. 3 

61. 5 

41. 0 

48. 7 

53. 8 

46. 2 

62. 8 

71. 8 

82. 0 

69. 2 

44. 9 

5*1 

74. 3 

74. 4 

28. 2 

23. 1 

71. 8 

65. 4 

44. 9 

34. 6 

38. 5 

66. 6 

43. 6 

58. 9 

33. 4 

64. 1 

66. 6 

69. 2 

58. 9 

14. 1 

41. 1 

80. 8 

47. 4 

46. 2 

79. 5 

92. 3 

69. 2 

14. 1 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

51. 4 78. 5 

75. 0 39. 6 

40. 3 57. 7 

98. 6 95. 1 

34. 7 36. 2 

75. 0 97. 2 

59. 7 18. 8 

66. 0 83. 3 

92. 4 91. 7 

50. 0 62. 5 

39. 6 13. 9 

75. 0 98. 6 

75. 0 47. 9 

27. 8 13. 9 

94. 5 98. 6 

75. 7 67. 4 

91. 0 80. 5 

94. 4 86. 1 

64. 7 91. 7 

72. 2 66. 7 

66. 7 80. 5 

84. 0 79. 2 

69. 5 64. 6 

46. 5 47. 9 

73. 6 76. 4 

88. 9 85. 4 

88. 9 79. 2 

49. 3 19. 5 

80. 5 91. 7 

AVERAGE FOR 

64. 1 30*. 8 

35. 9 56. 4 

71. 8 89. 7 

47. 4 5. 1 

48. 7 44. 9 

37. 2 34. 6 

64. 1 47. 5 

69. 2 61. 5 

34. 6 59. 0 

44. 9 25. 6 

53. 8 64. 1 

60. 2 53. 8 

48. 7 37. 2 

62. 8 47. 5 

43. 6 34. 6 

53. 9 51. 3 

50. 0 64. 1 

62. 8 46. 2 

39. 8 29. 5 

51. 3 34. 6 

50. 0 56. 4 

66. 7 65. 4 

44. 8 44. 9 

55. 2 57. 7 

71. 8 59. 0 

73. 1 61. 6 

51. 3 42. 3 

48. 7 66. 7 

AVERAGE FOR 

35. 9 

15. 4 33. 3 

97. 4 100. 0 

25. 7 18. 0 

28. 2 38. 5 

25. 7 30. 8 

66. 6 58. 9 

74. 3 82. 0 

51. 3 43. 6 

25. 7 20. 5 

76. 9 76. 9 

66. 6 56. 4 

35. 9 33. 4 

64. 1 53. 8 

25. 7 35. 9 

65. 4 61. 5 

78. 2 76. 9 

58. 9 46. 2 

33. 3 7. 7 

25. 7 33. 4 

62. 8 70. 5 

79. 5 74. 3 

35. 9 16. 7 

66. 6 51. 3 

87. 2 69. 2 

92. 3 79. 5 

51. 3 30. 8 

53. 8 51. 3 

IVQ 

PERIOD 

89. 6 

17. 4 

86. 8 

72. 2 

66. 7 

90. 3 

17. 4 

97. 2 

82. 0 

77. 8 

3 . 5 

95. 8 

77. 1 

28. 5 

91. 7 

75. 7 

81. 9 

88. 9 

93. 1 

51. 4 

89. 6 

80. 6 

36. 1 

47. 9 

95. 1 

84. 7 

52.1 1 

7 . 0 

93. 1 

PERIOD 

46. 2 

38. 5 

76. 9 

51. 3 

35. 9 

48. 7 

57. 7 

47. 5 

42. 3 

25. 7 

55. 1 

51. 3 

20. 5 

39. 7 

53. 8 

59. 0 

57. 7 

37. 2 

35. 9 

51. 3 

59. 0 

48. 7 

30. 8 

47. 4 

65. 4 

61. 5 

16. 7 

46. 2 

PERIOD 

12. 8 

66. 6 

100. 0 

20. 5 

38. 5 

35. 9 

58. 9 

66. 6 

48. 7 

20. 5 

70. 5 

48. 7 

41. 1 

51. 3 

53. 8 

64. 1 

71. 8 

46. 2 

0 . 0 

33. 4 

89. 7 

71. 8 

30. 8 

73. 1 

83. 3 

87. 2 

23. 1 

59. 0 

Annual 

5 1 '.4 

50. 0 

91. 0 

47. 2 

82. 1 

41. 2 

72. 2 

91. 2 

63. 2 

28. 3 

72. 2 

74. 0 

35. 6 

89. 4 

72. 4 

87. 3 

92. 0 

88. 6 

70. 1 

71. 0 

84. 2 

61. 6 

42. 2 

78. 6 

88. 0 

76. 2 

29. 7 

72. 9 

39* 8 

76. 9 

43. 9 

39. 1 

42. 0 

55. 1 

60. 9 

47. 8 

33. 0 

54. 2 

54. 2 

39. 1 

54. 8 

45. 2 

54. 2 

55. 8 

49. 4 

41. 7 

44. 6 

53. 5 

58. 6 

41. 7 

55. 8 

67. 0 

69. 6 

44. 9 

51. 6 

30'. 1 

92. 9 

34. 6 

33. 4 

28. 9 

64. 1 

72. 1 

47. 1 

25. 3 

65. 7 

59. 6 

38. 5 

57. 0 

37. 2 

63. 8 

73. 4 

55. 1 

25. 0 

26. 6 

66. 0 

76. 6 

32. 7 

59. 3 

79. 8 

87. 8 

43. 6 

44. 5 

BCD 1977 143 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1976.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

968 . 

73. 7 

87. 5 

98. 7 

76. 9 

71. 2 

93. 1 

72. 5 

41. 2 

57. 5 

91. 9 

86. 2 

27. 5 

86. 9 

25. 6 

97. 5 

74. 7 

92. 2 

74. 0 

90. 9 

64. 5 

12. 0 

43. 3 

95. 8 

89. 6 

26. 8 

85. 8 

95. 4 

968 . 

... 27. 5 

90. 0 

96. 2 

42. 5 

59. 4 

83. 7 

91. 2 

56. 2 

51. 2 

47. 5 

95. 0 

30. 0 

97. 5 

17. 5 

95. 0 

83. 1 

80. 5 

51. 9 

85. 7 

61. 8 

73. 3 

5 . 5 

98. 6 

62. 5 

26. 5 

28. 8 

62. 0 

Feb. Mar. 

DIFFUSION INDEX 

2 . 5 

17. 5 

66. 2 

85. 0 

25. 6 

43. 7 

79. 4 

87. 5 

41. 9 

13. 7 

77. 5 

62. 5 

12. 5 

96. 2 

75. 0 

78. 7 

65. 2 

81. 8 

48. 7 

92. 2 

10. 5 

43. 3 

23. 3 

87. 5 

70. 1 

14. 5 

50. 7 

93. 8 

81. 2 

71. 2 

66. 2 

21. 9 

56. 2 

80. 6 

80. 6 

47. 5 

88. 7 

81. 2 

73. 1 

80. 6 

34. 4 

85. 6 

47. 5 

43. 7 

78. 5 

64. 3 

14. 3 

61. 0 

21. 1 

13. 3 

82. 7 

71. 5 

76. 4 

19. 6 

91. 0 

86. 2 

DIFFUSION INDEX 

... 18. 7 

87. 5 

83. 7 

35. 0 

38. 1 

91. 2 

97. 5 

51. 2 

59. 4 

60. 0 

85. 0 

41. 2 

97. 5 

6 . 2 

95. 0 

78. 2 

58. 4 

43. 5 

90. 3 

63. 2 

40. 0 

5 . 6 

95. 1 

59. 0 

19. 1 

10. 6 

98. 5 

... 

27! i 

62. 5 

68. 7 

52. 5 

55. 0 

92. 5 

96. 2 

72. 5 

65. 0 

95. 0 

85. 0 

42. 5 

97. 5 

7 . 5 

98. 7 

86. 5 

51. 9 

37. 7 

97. 4 

71. 1 

14. 7 

5 . 6 

91. 0 

68. 1 

25. 0 

6 . 1 

100. 0 

Apr. 

OF STOCK 

May 

PRICES, 

June July Aug. 

5 0 0 COMMON STOCKS—65-82 

(PERCENT RISING OVER 1 

93*.l 

47. 5 

47. 5 

49. 4 

21. 2 

5 . 6 

85. 6 

83. 7 

33. 7 

74. 4 

59. 4 

53. 1 

51. 9 

72. 5 

8 . 7 

91. 2 

75. 6 

70. 8 

63. 6 

76. 0 

94. 7 

54. 0 

16. 4 

84. 0 

71. 5 

21. 7 

9 . 7 

69. 2 

OF STOCK 

95. 6 

29. 4 

75. 0 

40. 0 

38. 1 

41. 2 

86. 9 

33. 1 

23. 1 

78. 7 

91. 2 

53. 7 

35. 0 

81. 9 

1 . 2 

85. 0 

52. 6 

66. 9 

3 . 9 

74. 0 

83. 6 

74. 7 

2 . 7 

41. 7 

21. 5 

14. 7 

27. 3 

61. 0 

PRICES, 

80. 0 

1 . 9 

33. 1 

20. 0 

78. 1 

0 . 0 

71. 2 

88. 7 

20. 0 

42. 5 

86. 2 

41. 9 

76. 2 

40. 0 

1 . 2 

51. 9 

35. 3 

0 . 0 

23. 4 

51. 3 

80. 3 

1 . 3 

47. 9 

27. 8 

43. 1 

15. 4 

39. 4 

70. 8 

5 0 0 COM!" 

(PERCENT RISING OVER S 

53! 7 

68. 7 

80. 0 

67. 5 

48. 7 

97. 5 

95. 0 

67. 5 

50. 0 

100. 0 

84. 4 

42. 5 

97. 5 

3 . 1 

95. 0 

85. 9 

58. 4 

22. 1 

93. 4 

76. 3 

12. 0 

6 . 9 

97. 2 

84. 7 

19. 1 

6 . 1 

95. 4 

... 

... 63. 7 

71. 2 

86. 2 

58. 7 

16. 2 

97. 5 

88. 7 

55. 6 

36. 9 

100. 0 

67. 5 

36. 9 

95. 6 

3 . 7 

89. 1 

84. 6 

72. 7 

11. 7 

92. 1 

82. 7 

6 . 7 

25. 0 

77. 8 

67. 6 

17. 6 

10. 6 

93. 8 

... 

61. 2 

70. 6 

71. 9 

70. 0 

42. 5 

17. 5 

96. 2 

70. 0 

48. 7 

20. 0 

98. 7 

61. 9 

38. 7 

81. 2 

2 . 5 

84. 6 

84. 6 

67. 5 

6 . 5 

86. 2 

85. 3 

21. 3 

27. 8 

56. 9 

43. 7 

30. 9 

4 . 6 

89. 2 

-MONTH SPANS) 

12'.5 

100. 0 

19. 4 

47. 5 

85. 6 

65. 0 

90. 6 

53. 7 

95. 0 

51. 9 

85. 6 

80. 6 

35. 0 

42. 5 

69. 4 

29. 4 

89. 7 

24. 7 

38. 3 

81. 6 

48. 7 

4 . 0 

41. 7 

44. 4 

30. 6 

66. 2 

4 . 5 

64. 6 

3 . 7 

95. 0 

94. 4 

92. 5 

53. 7 

76. 9 

83. 1 

23. 1 

56. 9 

7 . 5 

88. 7 

42. 5 

76. 2 

81. 2 

78. 1 

75. 0 

41. 0 

79. 9 

6 . 5 

77. 6 

17. 8 

34. 7 

77. 8 

23. 6 

76. 4 

41. 9 

7 . 6 

6 . 2 

ON STOCKS--65-8 2 

-MONTH SPANS) 

61 ".2 

83. 7 

67. 5 

45. 6 

64. 4 

30. 0 

96. 2 

68. 7 

43. 7 

25. 0 

100. 0 

55. 6 

46. 2 

76. 2 

1 . 2 

78. 2 

81. 8 

61. 0 

9 . 7 

68. 4 

93. 3 

25. 3 

31. 9 

31. 9 

54. 9 

23. 9 

4 . 6 

80. 8 

55. 0 

85. 0 

65. 0 

62. 5 

74. 4 

31. 2 

97. 5 

81. 2 

31. 9 

23. 7 

100. 0 

56. 9 

57. 5 

73. 7 

3 . 7 

79. 5 

68. 8 

59. 1 

22. 1 

65. 8 

97. 3 

21. 3 

46. 5 

43. 1 

54. 9 

16. 4 

3 . 1 

66. 2 

Sept. Oct. 

INDUSTRIES ' ® 

31 ".9 

72. 5 

90. 0 

93. 1 

13. 7 

0 . 0 

51. 9 

70. 6 

12. 5 

8 . 1 

84. 4 

9 . 4 

16. 9 

40. 0 

36. 2 

76. 9 

76. 3 

81. 2 

3 . 9 

57. 2 

86. 7 

61. 3 

96. 5 

71. 5 

33. 8 

88. 2 

1 . 5 

40. 0 

61. 9 

95. 0 

92. 5 

41. 9 

13. 7 

75. 6 

60. 6 

5 . 0 

23. 7 

4 . 4 

80. 0 

52. 5 

25. 0 

46. 9 

8 . 1 

44. 9 

73. 1 

66. 9 

25. 3 

32. 2 

82. 7 

72. 7 

72. 2 

18. 1 

33. 8 

89. 0 

66. 2 

70. 8 

INDUSTRIES ' ® 

32. 5 

96. 2 

78. 7 

61. 2 

80. 0 

53. 7 

100. 0 

63. 7 

33. 7 

31. 2 

100. 0 

50. 6 

68. 7 

71. 2 

18. 7 

77. 6 

65. 6 

63. 6 

20. 1 

71. 1 

81. 3 

20. 0 

72. 2 

44. 4 

47. 9 

26. 9 

10. 8 

90. 8 

11. 2 

97. 5 

80. 0 

52. 5 

81. 2 

65. 6 

98. 7 

72. 5 

27. 5 

26. 2 

100. 0 

33. 7 

83. 7 

67. 5 

67. 5 

69. 2 

75. 3 

60. 4 

47. 4 

52. 6 

71. 3 

14. 7 

95. 8 

50. 7 

42. 0 

35. 8 

23. 1 

87. 7 

Nov. 

U2 

65. 6 

31. 9 

6 . 2 

yo.o 

81. 2 

91. 9 

86. 9 

46. 9 

26. 2 

89. 4 

55. 6 

90. 0 

87. 5 

98. 7 

44. 9 

59. 6 

70. 1 

88. 3 

7 . 9 

77. 3 

68. 0 

48. 6 

2 . 8 

90. 1 

7 . 5 

70. 8 

64. 6 

io!o 

96. 2 

84. 4 

66. 2 

79. 4 

83. 7 

98. 7 

73. 7 

41. 2 

30. 0 

98. 7 

32. 5 

90. 0 

70. 0 

93. 7 

71. 2 

76. 6 

67. 5 

58. 4 

46. 1 

52. 0 

25. 3 

97. 2 

59. 7 

36. 2 

53. 7 

38. 5 

80. 0 

Dec. 

4 K 2 

86. 2 

52. 5 

71. 2 

90. 0 

67. 5 

96. 2 

71. 9 

45. 6 

49. 4 

82. 5 

71. 9 

81. 2 

55. 0 

84. 4 

68. 4 

24. 0 

57. 1 

59. 7 

71. 1 

72. 7 

4 . 0 

98. 6 

95. 8 

77. 5 

13. 4 

9 . 2 

26. 2 

... 

26 ."6 

92. 5 

96. 9 

62. 5 

65. 0 

83. 7 

98. 7 

60. 6 

33. 1 

30. 0 

96. 2 

26. 2 

97. 5 

62. 5 

95. 0 

84. 4 

76. 6 

70. 1 

66. 2 

50. 0 

56. 0 

31. 5 

98. 6 

65. 3 

34. 8 

35. 8 

70. 8 

80. 0 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

54*.l 

73. 3 

68. 5 

52. 9 

65. 2 

84. 4 

69. 2 

57. 3 

50. 8 

80. 8 

76. 4 

24. 8 

89. 6 

49. 4 

73. 3 

72. 8 

79. 4 

45. 7 

81. 4 

32. 0 

22. 9 

49. 8 

84. 9 

78. 7 

20. 3 

75. 8 

91. 8 

24^6 

80. 0 

82. 9 

43. 3 

50. 8 

89. 1 

95. 0 

60. 0 

58. 5 

67. 5 

88. 3 

37. 9 

97. 5 

10. 4 

96. 2 

82. 6 

63. 6 

44. 4 

91. 1 

65. 4 

[ 42. 7 

5 . 6 

94. 9 

63. 2 

23. 5 

15. 2 

86. 8 

II Q III Q 

AVERAGE FOR 

89. 6 

26. 3 

51. 9 

36. 5 

45. 8 

15. 6 

81. 2 

68. 5 

25. 6 

65. 2 

78. 9 

49. 6 

54. 4 

64. 8 

3 . 7 

76. 0 

54. 5 

45. 9 

30. 3 

67. 1 

86. 2 

43. 3 

22. 3 

51. 2 

45. 4 

17. 3 

25. 5 

67. 0 

16. 0 

89. 2 

67. 9 

77. 7 

51. 0 

47. 3 

75. 2 

49. 1 

54. 8 

22. 5 

86. 2 

44. 2 

42. 7 

54. 6 

61. 2 

60. 4 

69. 0 

61. 9 

16. 2 

72. 1 

51. 1 

33. 3 

72. 0 

46. 5 

46. 9 

65. 4 

4 . 5 

36. 9 

AVERAGE FOR 

62. 7 

70. 6 

78. 7 

56. 2 

27. 5 

97. 1 

84. 6 

57. 3 

35. 6 

99. 6 

71. 3 

39. 4 

91. 4 

3 . 1 

89. 6 

85. 0 

66. 2 

13. 4 

90. 6 

81. 4 

13. 3 

19. 9 

77. 3 

65. 3 

22. 5 

7 . 1 

92. 8 

49. 6 

88. 3 

70. 4 

56. 4 

72. 9 

38. 3 

97. 9 

71. 2 

36. 4 

26. 6 

100. 0 

54. 4 

57. 5 

73. 7 

7 . 9 

78. 4 

72. 1 

61. 2 

17. 3 

68. 4 

90. 6 

22. 2 

50. 2 

39. 8 

52. 6 

22. 4 

6 . 2 

79. 3 

IV Q 

PERIOD 

34. 8 

82. 3 

59. 0 

39. 8 

64. 6 

74. 8 

82. 9 

54. 6 

38. 7 

26. 7 

84. 0 

60. 0 

65. 4 

63. 1 

63. 7 

52. 7 

52. 2 

64. 7 

57. 8 

37. 1 

77. 6 

48. 2 

73. 1 

38. 9 

67. 1 

36. 6 

48. 7 

53.9 ' 

PERIOD 

ll'.l 

95. 4 

87. 1 

60. 4 

75. 2 

77. 7 

98. 7 

68. 9 

33. 9 

28. 7 

98. 3 

30. 8 

90. 4 

66. 7 

85. 4 

74. 9 

76. 2 

66. 0 

57. 3 

49. 6 

59. 8 

23. 8 

97. 2 

58. 6 

37. 7 

41. 8 

44. 1 

82. 6 

Annual 

63! o 

63. 0 

55. 6 

53. 6 

50. 7 

80. 9 

60. 4 

44. 1 

41. 3 

82. 5 

57. 5 

46. 8 

68. 0 

44. 5 

65. 6 

62. 1 

63. 0 

37. 5 

64. 4 

61. 7 

36. 9 

54. 3 

55. 4 

59. 5 

34. 9 

38. 6 

62. 4 

777 

ei'.i 

77. 0 

69. 6 

61. 9 

48. 6 

95. 7 

79. 9 

46. 9 

37. 4 

91. 3 

61. 2 

1 56.3 

82. 3 

26. 7 

84. 8 

1 79. 0 

64. 3 

33. 1 

74. 9 

74. 3 

25. 5 

43. 2 

67. 6 

54. 7 

27. 6 

18. 1 

85. 4 

'This diffusion index is based on 82 component industries from 1948 through February 1963; the number of components then declines gradually to 65 in 1975. 

144 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

1 1 . NEWLY APPROVED CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS, 100 0 MFG. 

CORPORATIONS' (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

... 

... ... ... ... 

... ... ... ... 

... ... ... ... 

... ... ... ... 

... ... ... ... 

... ... ... ... 

... ... ... ... 1.7 7 2.0 6 2.2 9 2.0 5 

1.8 6 1.8 4 1.8 7 2.2 8 

2.6 9 3.2 6 3.9 0 4.0 1 

4.0 4 3.7 1 3.3 8 3.4 3 

3.6 1 3.2 1 2.4 3 2.3 3 

1.9 5 1.9 4 2.2 0 2.2 3 

2.6 9 2.9 4 3.1 3 3.1 3 

2.8 7 2.5 2 2.2 7 2.7 1 

2.3 9 2.4 6 2.7 2 2.7 0 

2.9 9 2.5 2 2.8 2 3.1 5 

2.7 6 3.2 7 3.6 6 3.9 4 

4.1 2 4.6 6 4.9 1 4.3 4 

5.0 8 5.5 4 5.5 8 6.1 5 

6.5 4 6.7 7 5.9 6 6.0 2 

6.0 3 5.9 8 5.8 9 5.9 5 

5.9 5 5.7 2 6.3 5 6.6 4 

6.8 0 7.7 5 7.6 0 7.4 4 

6.6 8 6.4 8 6.3 2 5.8 6 

5.7 0 5.5 2 5.9 2 5.9 4 

6.5 7 7.0 9 7.2 1 8.4 3 

9.7 2 10.9 2 11.6 7 12.2 0 

12.8 6 14.9 8 16.3 8 12.6 8 

11.3 9 10.9 8 10.1 8 12.8 7 

1 6 . CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

... 

10. 4 13. 6 17. 8 20. 0 

20. 7 19. 6 19. 3 21. 1 

22. 3 23. 4 23. 1 22. 3 

20. 3 17. 9 18. 6 18. 2 

18. 8 22. 4 27. 4 30. 1 

24. 9 21. 1 19. 1 20. 4 

19. 9 18. 7 18. 7 20. 6 

21. 6 21. 7 21. 2 16. 5 

19. 1 19. 7 20. 8 22. 4 

25. 6 26. 0 26. 7 27. 7 

26. 7 27. 2 25. 5 26. 9 

27. 1 26. 0 25. 5 23. 2 

19. 6 20. 1 22. 6 26. 0 

28. 1 30. 4 27. 1 26. 3 

28. 3 26. 1 25. 0 24. 0 

23. 5 24. 8 26. 4 28. 5 

29. 0 29. 0 29. 8 30. 6 

29. 7 31. 2 32. 1 32. 9 

36. 3 36. 3 37. 3 36. 9 

42. 4 43. 9 44. 4 46. 7 

47. 6 47. 6 47. 1 46. 1 

43. 5 43. 6 44. 9 47. 4 

45. 3 46. 6 46. 1 46. 6 

46. 1 44. 9 42. 7 41. 4 

38. 1 37. 1 37. 7 35. 1 

40. 4 43. 1 45. 5 48. 1 

50. 7 52. 3 55. 0 60. 4 

66. 5 67. 9 65. 4 68. 5 

75. 8 73. 3 81. 0 70. 6 

54. 0 61. 0 72. 1 74. 1 

2 2 . RATIO OF PROFITS (AFTER TAXES) TO TOTAL CORPORATE 

DOMESTIC INCOME (PERCENT) 

... ... ... ... 

13. 3 15. 8 19. 5 20. 7 

20. 6 18. 5 17. 9 18. 6 

18. 6 19. 2 18. 5 17. 6 

16. 4 14. 9 15. 5 15. 9 

15. 3 17. 2 19. 4 20. 2 

16. 2 13. 3 11. 9 12. 5 

12. 2 11. 6 11. 5 11. 9 

12. 2 12. 1 11. 9 9. 6 

11. 0 11. 3 11. 9 12. 3 

13. 4 13. 2 13. 3 13. 5 

12. 8 12. 9 12. 0 12. 5 

12. 3 11. 7 11. 4 10. 7 

9 . 4 9. 6 10. 4 11. 5 

12. 0 12. 5 11. 2 10. 8 

11. 1 10. 2 10. 0 9. 6 

9 . 3 9. 6 9. 9 10. 5 

10. 4 10. 2 10. 4 10. 3 

10. 0 10. 4 10. 5 10. 6 

11. 3 11. 1 11. 2 11. 0 

12. 1 12. 3 12. 3 12. 7 

12. 5 12. 2 12. 0 11. 5 

10. 8 10. 8 10. 7 3-. 1 

10. 4 10. 2 10. 0 9. 9 

9 . 4 9. 0 8. 3 8. 1 

7 . 2 7. 1 7. 1 6. 7 

7 . 5 7. 6 8. 2 8. 2 

8 . 6 8. 6 8. 8 9. 3 

9 . 8 9. 8 9. 3 9. 3 

9 . 3 9. 6 10. 4 8. 8 

7 . 2 7. 9 9. 0 9. 1 

Annual 

TOTAL 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 

... 8.1 7 

7.8 5 

13.8 6 

14.5 6 

11.5 8 

8.3 2 

11.8 9 

10.3 7 

10.2 7 

11.4 8 

13.6 3 

18.0 3 

22.3 5 

25.2 9 

23.8 5 

24.6 6 

29.5 9 

25.3 4 

23.0 8 

29.3 0 

44.5 1 

56.9 0 

45.4 2 

AVERAGE 

... 

15. 5 

20. 2 

22. 7 

18. 7 

24. 7 

21. 3 

19. 5 

20. 2 

20. 5 

26. 4 

26. 6 

25. 5 

22. 1 

28. 0 

25. 8 

25. 8 

29. 6 

31. 5 

36. 7 

44. 3 

47. 1 

44. 8 

46. 2 

43. 8 

37. 0 

44. 3 

54. 6 

67. 1 

75. 2 

65. 3 

AVERAGE 

... 

17. 3 

18. 9 

18. 5 

15. 7 

18. 0 

13. 5 

11. 8 

11. 4 

11. 6 

13. 4 

12. 6 

11. 5 

10. 2 

11. 6 

10. 2 

9 . 8 

10. 3 

10. 4 

11. 2 

12. 4 

12. 0 

10. 8 

10. 1 

8 . 7 

7 . 0 

7 . 9 

8 . 8 

9 . 6 

9 . 5 

8 . 3 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

1 5 . PROFITS (AFTER TAXES) PER DOLLAR OF SALES, 

ALL MANUFACTURING CORPORATIONS

 2 (CENTS 

... 

6 . ..7. 6. ..3. 5. ... 8 

6 . 5 6. 4 6. 3 

5 . 6 4. 7 5. 5 

5 . 6 6. 7 6. 9 

5 . 7 5. 1 4. 2 

4 . 3 4. 1 4. 3 

4 . 4 4. 3 4. 4 

4 . 3 4. 6 4. 5 

5 . 2 5. 4 5. 5 

5 . 4 5. 4 5. 0 

5 . 3 4. 9 4. 7 

3 . 6 3. 7 4. 4 

5 . 0 5. 3 4. 6 

5 . 0 4. 4 4. 3 

3 . 8 4. 2 4. 4 

4 . 6 4. 4 4. 5 

4 . 4 4. 7 4. 7 

5 . 1 5. 2 5. 3 

5 . 6 5. 5 5. 6 

5 . 8 5. 7 5. 6 

5 . 0 5. 0 4. 9 

5 . 1 5. 0 5. 1 

5 . 1 4. 9 4. 8 

4 . 1 4. 2 4. 0 

4 . 0 4. 2 4. 2 

4 . 2 4. 2 4. 3 

4 . 7 4. 7 4. 7 

5 . 8 5. 6 5. 9 

3 . 8 4. 4 5. 0 

... 

5 . ..7 . 

6 . 2 

5 . 5 

6 . 3 

4 . 4 

4 . 4 

4 . 0 

4 . 7 

5 . 6 

5 . 1 

4 . 3 

4 . 8 

4 . 4 

3 . 9 

4 . 7 

4 . 7 

5 . 0 

5 . 3 

5 . 6 

5 . 4 

5 . 1 

5 . 1 

4 . 5 

3 . 6 

4 . 1 

4 . 5 

5 . 7 

4 . 9 

5 . 1 

1 8 . CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES IN 197 2 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

... 

... ... ... 44. 4 40. 8 39. 3 

43. 6 45. 2 43. 1 

37. 8 33. 0 34. 5 

34. 8 41. 4 49. 4 

42. 2 35. 5 32. 0 

33. 0 30. 9 30. 9 

35. 3 35. 2 34. 1 

30. 6 31. 5 33. 5 

41. 1 41. 4 42. 0 

40. 9 41. 3 38. 2 

39. 5 37. 7 36. 7 

28. 2 28. 8 32. 4 

39. 6 42. 7 37. 9 

39. 4 36. 2 34. 7 

32. 7 34. 5 36. 5 

40. 0 39. 8 40. 8 

40. 3 42. 5 43. 5 

48. 8 48. 8 49. 9 

56. 4 58. 2 58. 6 

62. 0 61. 4 60. 3 

54. 9 54. 6 55. 8 

55. 1 56. 1 54. 8 

53. 8 51. 6 48. 4 

42. 2 40. 5 40. 8 

42. 6 44. 8 46. 8 

51. 3 52. 6 54. 9 

65. 2 65. 5 62. 1 

68. 9 64. 3 68. 3 

42. 3 47. 8 55. 5 

... 

... 41. 9 

41. 3 

33. 8 

53. 0 

33. 0 

33. 7 

26. 5 

35. 9 

43. 2 

39. 7 

33. 3 

36. 9 

36. 8 

33. 3 

39. 3 

41. 8 

44. 4 

49. 3 

61. 4 

58. 5 

58. 3 

54. 9 

46. 4 

37. 4 

49. 2 

59. 8 

63. 9 

57. 2 

55. 6 

3 0 . GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, CHANGE IN BUSINESS 

INVENTORIES, IN 197 2 DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BIL. DOL.) 

... 

... ... ... 0 . 1 -0. 9 -2. 9 

4 . 1 5. 6 6. 9 

-0. 3 -7. 1 -2. 5 

4 . 4 7. 7 8. 0 

13. 4 19. 9 14. 6 

7 . 3 -2. 7 5. 4 

3 . 9 5. 1 1. 9 

-3. 4 -4. 1 -2. 7 

5 . 9 8. 0 7. 8 

7 . 5 5. 5 4. 9 

2 . 5 2. 9 3. 7 

-6. 8 -6. 2 0. 3 

5 . 0 13. 0 -0. 4 

13. 5 4. 9 3. 0 

-3. 8 1. 9 6. 6 

10. 6 9. 2 8. 0 

7 . 6 7. 0 9. 3 

6 . 1 8. 0 7. 3 

13. 4 10. 6 12. 4 

13. 5 17. 8 15. 1 

14. 6 7. 5 12. 2 

6 . 3 11. 8 9. 2 

9 . 8 12. 2 13. 4 

2 . 9 4. 8 6. 3 

7 . 9 10. 0 5. 0 

4 . 8 10. 1 12. 1 

11. 7 14. 8 14. 1 

11. 4 9. 4 5. 1 

-20. 5 -21. 2 -1. 0 

... 

... 2 . 7 

5 . 3 

-7. 7 

22. 1 

7 . 0 

7 . 2 

-5. 0 

1 . 5 

9 . 2 

5 . 4 

-3. 0 

5 . 3 

8 . 2 

-3. 9 

6 . 7 

4 . 7 

7 . 1 

7 . 9 

8 . 8 

20. 5 

13. 8 

7 . 6 

6 . 8 

3 . 3 

3 . 7 

10. 8 

25. 4 

8 . 0 

-5. 5 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

... 

6 . ..1 . 

6 . 4 

5 . 3 

6 . 4 

4 . 8 

4 . 3 

4 . 3 

4 . 5 

5 . 4 

5 . 2 

4 . 8 

4 . 1 

4 . 8 

4 . 4 

4 . 3 

4 . 6 

4 . 7 

5 . 2 

5 . 6 

5 . 6 

5 . 0 

5 . 1 

4 . 8 

4 . 0 

4 . 1 

4 . 3 

5 . 0 

5 . 6 

4 . 6 

AVERAGE 

... 

36. 5 

41. 6 

43. 3 

34. 8 

44. 6 

35. 9 

32. 0 

32. 7 

32. 9 

41. 8 

40. 1 

36. 8 

31. 7 

39. 2 

35. 9 

35. 8 

40. 6 

42. 7 

49. 2 

58. 6 

60. 5 

55. 9 

55. 2 

50. 0 

40. 2 

45. 9 

54. 6 

64. 2 

64. 7 

50. 3 

AVERAGE 

... 

12. 2 

-0. 2 

5 . 5 

-4. 4 

10. 6 

13. 7 

4 . 3 

1 . 5 

-2. 2 

7 . 7 

5 . 8 

1 . 5 

-1. 8 

6 . 5 

4 . 4 

2 . 9 

8 . 1 

7 . 8 

7 . 3 

11. 3 

16. 7 

12. 0 

8 . 7 

10. 6 

4 . 3 

6 . 6 

9 . 4 

16. 5 

8 . 5 

-12. 0 

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. 

'Data for 1947-50 differ from those published by the source. In BCD, those data have been adjusted (multiplied by 0.91) to the level of the data for subsequent years. 

BCD 1977 145 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

34. NET 

49. 

50-3. E 

DOI 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

' 

IIQ III Q IV Q 

CASH FLOW, CORPORATE, IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

... 

9.8 12.7 16.9 18.8 

19.9 19.1 18.7 20.9 

21.7 23.6 23.1 22.3 

20.8 18.6 19.6 19.1 

19.1 22.7 27.2 29.8 

26.2 22.7 21.2 22.8 

23.0 21.6 21.9 24.0 

25.6 25.5 25.7 21.8 

24.1 25.7 26.9 29.0 

32.3 33.1 34.3 35.2 

34.6 35.1 33.5 34.7 

35.5 34.9 34.9 33.5 

30.1 30.4 33.4 37.4 

39.3 42.0 38.4 38.1 

40.4 38.4 37.4 36.6 

36.6 38.3 39.8 41.6 

45.0 44.7 45.9 47.0 

46.0 48.2 49.2 50.3 

53.6 53.4 54.7 54.2 

60.3 62.0 63.1 65.1 

66.8 68.1 68.7 69.3 

66.4 66.9 69.0 73.2 

70.8 72.5 72.2 73.8 

75.0 75.0 73.7 73.0 

70.1 70.1 72.1 70.6 

76.4 80.5 84.0 87.8 

91.8 96.6 98.3 105.0 

111.1 113.6 111.3 116.1 

124.4 123.1 132.6 123.9 

108.7 117.0 130.0 134.8 

VALUE OF GOODS OUTPUT IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

... 

... ... ... ... 233.9 237.0 236.3 239.9 

240.6 242.7 245.0 248.2 

243.1 239.3 241.2 236.1 

250.0 255.6 266.8 273.4 

275.3 280.9 288.0 288.3 

289.2 286.7 291.1 302.2 

306.4 310.3 307.6 303.1 

293.6 286.5 290.0 298.7 

303.7 314.9 321.0 325.9 

321.7 321.0 319.3 321.6 

324.6 322.8 325.2 314.7 

303.1 304.1 315.2 325.5 

326.9 338.7 328.8 335.7 

344.4 340.5 336.4 327.2 

325.8 335.6 341.3 349.6 

359.4 361.6 364.2 362.8 

367.2 369.0 375.9 379.8 

386.8 393.7 397.9 397.8 

410.7 414.2 424.8 436.4 

448.5 452.9 458.2 462.9 

458.6 460.1 464.2 464.7 

468.9 480.1 488.7 486.7 

491.6 493.2 494.5 489.9 

483.6 486.1 488.5 475.6 

490.0 488.8 492.0 495.5 

505.8 522.8 530.6 545.0 

565.6 565.1 568.0 577.4 

560.6 558.1 555.6 537.4 

512.2 522.5 546.0 549.9 

IFFERENCE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN GNP, 1972 

LARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

... 

... ... ... ••• 3.5 0.5 5.7 

3.6 8.7 4.8 5.1 

-5.0 -2.0 4.5 -4.2 

22.3 13.6 17.3 12.2 

7.8 10.8 11.5 1.0 

5.6 0.8 6.2 14.2 

9.7 4.0 -3.8 -6.0 

-8.3 -2.5 8.8 11.7 

15.0 9.7 9.5 6.7 

-2.9 3.4 0.4 7.8 

4.7 0.5 4.7 -8.9 

-13.3 4.8 16.2 17.7 

8.6 15.6 -7.7 7.6 

14.5 -1.8 -3.2 -3.8 

4.7 12.4 9.7 18.2 

11.2 10.2 6.0 1.5 

7.7 10.2 15.1 8.1 

14.2 10.9 8.5 3.4 

19.1 13.4 15.9 19.7 

17.6 6.7 9.1 7.4 

1.6 6.9 12.3 7.9 

9.9 18.0 12.4 2.9 

10.1 4.8 3.8 -5.9 

-3.9 0.5 7.9 -10.6 

23.9 8.0 7.7 9.5 

20.7 21.8 15.0 24.2 

27.6 1.3 5.2 6.3 

-12.2 -9.6 -7.9 -21.2 

-30.6 16.0 32.2 9.9 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

... 

14.6 

19.7 

22.7 

19.5 

24.7 

23.1 

22.5 

24.7 

26.4 

33.5 

34.5 

34.9 

32.9 

39.4 

38.2 

39.1 

45.6 

48.4 

54.0 

62.6 

68.3 

68.9 

72.3 

74.2 

70.7 

82.2 

97.9 

113.0 

126.0 

122.6 

AVERAGE 

... 

238.0 

236.8 

244.2 

239.9 

261.5 

283.1 

292.3 

306.9 

292.2 

316.3 1 

320.9 

321.8 

312.0 

332.5 1 

337.1 

338.1 

362.0 

373.0 1 

394.0 

421.5 

455.6 

461.9 

481.1 

492.3 

483.4 

491.6 

526.0 

569.0 

552.9 

532.6 

DIFFERENCE 

... 

... -9.3 

19.4 

3.0 

42.8 

43.0 

22.0 

23.3 

-8.1 

41.1 

14.0 

12.1 

-1. 4 J 

40.9 

16.4 

18.5 

43.8 

31.6 

43.7 

51.5 

55.1 

26.7 

44.1 

27.0 

-3.5 

32.2 

63.6 

63.9 

-21.0 

-22.3 

Year 

35. NET 

50. 

50-C. CHANC 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

CASH FLOW, CORPORATE, IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

... 

... ... ... 45.0 41.7 39.8 

44.2 47.0 44.6 

40.0 35.6 37.5 

36.6 43.1 50.4 

45.6 39.0 35.9 

38.7 36.1 36.8 

42.4 41.8 41.9 

39.4 42.0 . 43.9 

52.4 53.4 53.9 

52.7 52.8 49.2 

50.6 49.3 48.9 

42.0 42.4 46.4 

54.0 57.5 52.4 

54.9 52.2 50.9 

49.8 52.2 54.2 

61.2 60.8 62.3 

62.3 65.3 66.6 

72.3 71.8 73.4 

80.5 82.7 83.6 

87.5 88.4 88.5 

84.1 84.0 85.8 

86.4 87.8 86.3 

87.6 86.6 83.7 

77.5 76.7 77.6 

80.1 83.6 86.2 

92.8 97.1 98.0 

109.1 110.3 106.2 

113.4 108.2 112.1 

84.8 89.4 97.0 

... 43.1 

42.7 

36.6 

53.5 

38.3 

39.9 

35.5 

47.0 

54.9 

50.1 

46.6 

51.7 

51.9 

49.9 

56.6 

63.7 

67.9 

T2.5 

85.8 

88.2 

90.0 

87.0 

81.7 

74.8 

89.3 

103.6 

108.6 

100.6 

98.2 

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

... ... ... 

... ... ... 464.0 467.5 468.0 

477.3 486.0 490.8 

490.9 488.9 49?.4 

511.5 525.1 542.4 

562.4 573.2 584.7 

591.3 592.1 598.3 

622.2 626.2 622.4 

608.1 605.6 614.4 

641.1 650.8 660.3 

664.1 667.5 667.9 

680.4 680.9 685.6 

663.4 668.2 684.4 

710.7 726.3 718.6 

740.7 738.9 735.7 

736.6 749.0 758.7 

788.1 798.3 804.3 

813.5 823.7 838.8 

861.1 872.0 880.5 

903.0 916.4 932.3 

969.6 976.3 985.4 

994.4 1001.3 1013.6 

1031.4 1049.4 1061.8 

1074.8 1079.6 1083.4 

1073.6 1074.1 1082.0 

1095.3 1103.3 1111.0 

1141.2 1163.0 1178.0 

1229.8 1231.1 1236.3 

1230.4 1220.8 1212.9 

1161.1 1177.1 1209.3 

E FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN GNP, 1972 

(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

... ... ... 

... ... ... 3.0 0.4 

3.0 7.5 4.1 

-3.9 -1.6 3.7 

19.4 11.1 13.8 

5.7 7.9 8.2 

3.9 0.5 4.2 

6.5 2.6 -2.4 

-5.3 -1.6 5.9 

10.0 6.1 6.0 

-1.7 2.1 0.2 

2.8 0.3 2.8 

-7.6 2.9 10.0 

5.0 9.1 -4.2 

8.2 -1.0 -1.7 

2.6 6.9 5.3 

5.9 5.3 3.0 

3.9 5.1 7.5 

6.9 5.1 3.9 

8.9 6.0 7.1 

7.6 2.8 3.8 

0.7 2.8 5.0 

3.9 7.2 4.8 

3.9 1.8 1.4 

-1.4 0.2 3.0 

9.2 3.0 2.8 

7.6 7.9 5.3 

9.5 0.4 1.7 

-3.9 -3.1 -2.6 

-9.9 5.6 11.4 

... 

... 473.7 

495.9 

489.2 

554.6 

585.7 

612.5 

616.4 

626.1 

667.0 

675.7 

676.7 

702.1 

726.2 

731.9 

776.9 

805.8 

846.9 

883.9 

952.0 

992.8 

1021.5 

1064.7 

1077.5 

1071.4 

1120.5 

1202.2 

1242.6 

1191.7 

1219.2 

DOLLARS 

... 

... 5.0 

4.2 

-3.3 

9.4 

0.7 

9.8 

-3.8 

7.8 

4.1 

4.8 

-5.1 

10.8 

4.3 

-2.0 

10.0 

0.7 

3.9 

1.6 

8.7 

3.0 

3.2 

1.1 

-2.2 

-3.8 

3.5 

8.4 

2.0 

-6.8 

3.3 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

... 

36.7 

42.6 

44.8 

37.4 

45.9 

39.5 

37.7 

40.5 

42.9 

53.4 

51.3 

49.0 

45.7 

53.9 

52.0 

53.2 

62.0 

65.5 

72.5 

83.2 

88.2 

86.0 

86.9 

84.9 

76.6 

84.8 

97.9 

108.6 

108.6 

92.3 

AVERAGE 

... 

477.6 

468.3 

487.7 

490.7 

533.5 

576.5 

598.5 

621.8 

613.7 

654.8 

668.8 

680.9 

679.5 

720.4 

736.8 

755.3 

799.1 

830.7 

874.4 

925.9 

981.0 

1007.7 

1051.8 

1078.8 

1075.3 

1107.5 

1171.1 

1235.0 

1214.0 

1191.7 

PERCENT 

CHANGE1 

... 

... -2.0 

4.1 

0.6 

8.7 

8.1 

3.8 

3.9 

-1.3 

6.7 

2.1 

1.8 

-0.2 

6.0 

2.3 

2.5 

5.8 

4.0 

5.3 

5.9 

5.9 

2.7 

4.4 

2.6 

-0.3 

3.0 

5.7 

5.5 

-1.7 

-1.8 

'Year-to-year differences and percent changes are computed from annual data. 

146 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

5 5. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, AUTOMOBILES 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945 

1948 

1949 

1950 

1954 

1955 

1957 

1958 

1959 

1960 

1961 

1962..... 

1963 

1964 

1965 

1966 

1967 

1968 

1969 

1974 

1976 

4.4 4.8 4.5 5.4 

6.0 5.5 6.3 6.9 

7.3 9.3 9.6 9.6 

10.4 10.9 13.2 12.3 

12.1 10.3 9.3 8.8 

9.2 9.5 7.5 10.9 

12.3 12.2 12-.0 11.5 

11.1 11.6 10.8 11.8 

14.2 16.0 16.9 15.7 

14.0 13.2 12.9 14.1 

15.4 15.0 14.1 14.4 

12.3 12.0 11.9 12.7 

15.3 16.4 17.1 14.8 

16.4 16.9 17.1 16.0 

13.6 14.2 14.9 16.3 

17.0 18.0 17.7 19.2 

19.8 20.6 20.6 21.1 

21.7 21.9 23.0 20.6 

25.6 24.8 25.4 25.4 

27.0 24.0 24.8 24.6 

22.9 25.5 25.0 24.6 

28.4 28.8 30.5 30.5 

31.0 30.4 30.8 30.5 

28.4 29.5 29.3 24.0 

33.7 34.5 34.9 36.7 

37.7 38.8 39.5 41.7 

45.9 44.6 42.4 38.7 

35.0 36.6 40.4 32.4 

36.0 37.1 42.8 45.1 

6 1. BUSINESS EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT, 

TOTAL (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1946 

1947 

1949 

1950 

1951 

1952 

1953 

1955 

1956 

1958 

1965 

1966 

1967 

1968 

1969 

1972 

1973 

1975 

1976 

18.14 19.02 19.79 20.27 

21.12 21.10 21.09 21.84 

20.67 19.47 18.50 17.57 

17.94 18.66 20.99 22.95 

23.69 25.44 26.17 26.26 

27.49 26.84 25.15 26.27 

27.68 28.38 28.44 28.26 

27.88 27.50 26.93 26.50 

26.51 28.09 30.53 32.42 

33.85 35.46 36.22 36.83 

38.17 38.62 38.35 36.62 

34.53 31.43 30.82 31.11 

31.92 33.05 34.61 34.44 

36.38 37.93 36.39 36.12 

35.03 35.39 35.89 37.12 

37.46 38.16 38.99 38.58 

38.10 39.58 41.82 43.04 

45.33 46.26 47.12 48.81 

50.70 53.31 55.08 57.69 

60.25 62.96 64.31 65.90 

65.23 65.60 65.48 65.66 

68.09 66.29 67.77 69.05 

72.52 73.94 77.84 77.84 

78.22 80.22 81.88 78.63 

79.32 81.61 80.75 83.18 

86.79 87.12 87.67 91.94 

96.19 97.76 100.90 103.74 

107.27 111.40 113.99 116.22 

114.57 112.46 112.16 111.80 

6 4. COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES AS PERCENT 

OF NATIONAL INCOME (PERCENT) 

1945 

1946 

1949 

1950 

1952 

1954 

1957 

67.9 66.2 65.5 65.4 

66.1 66.7 66.6 66.3 

65.2 63.7 64.6 64.8 

66.0 66.5 66.2 67.0 

66.2 65.9 65.1 65.2 

65.9 66.5 66.7 66.6 

68.1 68.4 68.4 68.8 

69.0 69.6 69.9 71.2 

70.3 70.0 69.4 68.9 

68.1 68.4 68.8 68.9 

69.7 70.1 70.4 70.7 

70.6 70.7 70.7 71.3 

71.7 71.3 70.9 70.1 

70.1 69.7 70.8 71.0 

70.8 71.5 71.8 72.2 

72.2 71.6 71.5 71.0 

71.0 71.2 71.2 70.9 

71.2 71.0 70.9 71.0 

70.7 70.8 70.8 71.2 

70.3 70.0 69.9 70.1 

69.8 70.3 71.0 71.2 

71.8 71.9 72.0 72.1 

72.5 72.4 72.9 73.3 

73.4 73.9 74.7 75.5 

76.3 76.2 76.2 76.6 

75.8 75.7 75.9 75.6 

75.3 75.4 75.1 74.8 

74.8 75.2 75.2 75.1 

76.0 77.0 77.4 78.0 

78.6 77.2 75.8 76.2 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

4*. 8 

6.2 

9.0 

11.7 

10.1 

9.3 

12.0 

11.3 

15.7 

13.5 

14.7 

12.2 

15.9 

16.6 

14.8 

18.0 

20.5 

21.8 

25.3 

25.1 

24.5 

29.6 

30.7 

27.8 

35.0 

39.4 

42.9 

36.1 

40.3 

AVERAGE 

19.33 

21.30 

18.98 

20.21 

25.46 

26.43 

28.20 

27.19 

29.53 

35.73 

37.94 

3i.89 

33.55 

36.75 

35.91 

38.39 

40.77 

46.97 

54.42 

63.51 

65.47 

67.76 

75.56 

79.71 

81.21 

88.44 

99.74 

112.40 

112.78 

AVERAGE 

66.2 

66.4 

64.6 

66.4 

65.6 

66.4 

68.4 

69.9 

69.6 

68.6 

70.2 

70.8 

71.0 

70.4 

71.6 

71.6 

71.1 

71.0 

70.9 

70.1 

70.6 

72.0 

72.8 

74.4 

76.3 

75.8 

75.2 

75.1 

77.1 

77.0 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

5 8. INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT © 

(FIRST QUARTER 1966=100) 

j 1945 

1951 

1955 

1961 

86.2 

90.7 ... ... 80.8 

82.0 82.9 ... 87.0 

99.1 ... 99.7 

98.2 99.9 100.2 

92.9 ... 83.7 

78.5 80.9 ... 90.8 

95.3 ... 93.8 

98.9 92.9 ... 90.1 

91.1 92.3 ... 94.4 

97.2 95.4 91.6 95.0 

94.8 91.4 96.2 96.9 

99.0 98.1 100.2 99.4 

101.5 102.2 103.2 102.9 

100.0 95.7 91.2 88.3 

92.2 94.9 96.5 92.9 

95.0 92.4 92.9 92.1 

95.1 91.6 86.4 79.7 

78.1 75.4 77.1 75.4 

78.2 81.6 82.4 82.2 

87.5 89.3 94.0 90.8 

80.8 76.0 71.8 75.7 

60.9 72.0 64.5 58.4 

58.0 72.9 75.8 75.4 

6 3. UNIT LABOR COST, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR 

(INDEX: 1967=100) 

1946 

1948 

1949 

1950 

1951 

1957 

1958 

1966 

1968 

1972 

1973 

1975 

65.0 66.3 67.4 69.7 

69.1 68.6 71.5 71.8 

70.9 69.9 69.4 70.3 

69.8 69.3 69.4 70.2 

73.2 74.9 74.3 74.8 

75.8 76.4 77.3 78.7 

79.0 78.9 79.8 79.7 

80.9 81.4 80.0 80.0 

79.0 79.2 79.2 80.1 

82.0 83.4 84.1 84.5 

85.7 86.2 86.8 87.6 

88.5 88.2 88.5 87.5 

88.0 87.9 89.8 90.5 

90.3 91.2 91.5 92.5 

92.7 92.1 92.1 91.5 

92.1 92.6 91.9 91.9 

92.3 91.7 91.8 92.4 

92.8 93.1 93.3 93.7 

93.3 93.6 93.3 93.1 

94.7 96.5 97.5 98.6 

99.5 99.5 100.2 100.7 

102.3 103.3 104.4 106.4' 

107.5 109.7 112.3 114.2 

116.7 117.6 118.1 119.8 

120.0 121.9 122.3 123.1 

124.5 124.8 125.5 126.0 

128.4 131.6 134.4 137.1 

142.1 147.9 153.1 158.6 

162.9 160.7 159.5 163.3 

6 7. BANK RATES ON SHORT-TERM BUSINESS LOANS, 35 CITIES' ® 

(PERCENT) 

1948 

2.30 2.30 2.30 2.00 

2.10 2.00 2.00 2.10 

2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 

2.40 2.47 2.60 2.64 

2.70 2.74 2.63 2.65 

2.60 2.68 2.63 2.84 

3.02 3.07 3.06 3.27 

3.45 3.51 3.49 3.51 

3.54 3.73 3.74 3.76 

3.72 3.60 3.56 3.55 

3.54 3.56 3.77 3.93 

3.93 4.14 4.35 4.38 

4.38 4.40 4.83 4.85 

4.49 4.17 4.21 4.50 

4.51 4.87 5.27 5.36 

5.34 5.35 4.97 4.99 

4.97 4.97 4.99 4.96 

4.98 5.01 4.99 5.02 

5.00 5.01 5.01 5.00 

4.99 4.99 4.98 5.00 

4.97 4.99 5.00 5.27 

5.55 5.82 6.30 6.31 

6.13 5.95 5.95 5.96 

6.36 6.84 6.89 6.61 

7.32 7.86 8.82 8.83 

8.86 8.49 8.50 8.07 

6.59 6.01 6.51 6.18 

5.52 5.59 5.84 6.33 

6.52 7.35 9.24 10.08 

9.91 11.15 12.40 11.64 

9.94 8.16 8.22 8.29 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

94.8 

94.8 

99.2 

102.4 

93.8 

94.1 

93.1 

88.2 

76.5 

81.1 

90.4 

76.1 

64.0 

70.5 

AVERAGE 

b'l'.'l 

70.1 

70.2 

69.6 

74.3 

77.1 

79.3 

80.5 

79.3 

83.5 

86.5 

88.2 

89.1 

91.4 

92.1 

92.1 

92.0 

93.2 

93.4 

96.8 

100.0 

104.1 

111.0 

118.1 

121.9 

125.2 

132.9 

150.4 

161.6 

AVERAGE 

2.22 

2.05 

2.10 

2.53 

2.68 

2.69 

3.10 

3.49 

3.69 

3.61 

3.70 

4.20 

4.62 

4.34 

5.00 

5.16 

4.97 

5.00 

5.00 

4.99 

5.06 

6.00 

6.00 

6.68 

8.21 

8.48 

6.32 

5.82 

8.30 

11.28 

8.65 

'Data are based on 19 cities for 1945-66 and on 35 cities thereafter. 

BCD 1977 147 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

I Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

Annual Year 

Quarterly 

I Q II Q III Q IVQ 

68. LABOR COST (CURRENT DOLLARS) PER UNIT OF GROSS PRODUCT 

(1972 DOLLARS), NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS (DOLLARS) 

79. CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES WITH IVA AND CCADJ IN 

CURRENT DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

I960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

0.37 8 

0.38 8 

0.38 4 

0.40 1 

0.42 2 

0.43 5 

0.45 1 

0.43 5 

0.45 8 

0.47 9 

0.50 2 

0.49 2 

.49 8 

.51 1 

.50 0 

.50 0 

0 . 

0 . 

0 . 

0 . 

0.49 3 

0.37 5 

0.38 9 

0.38 0 

0.40 9 

0.42 8 

0.43 8 

0.44 9 

0.43 5 

0.46 4 

0.48 1 

0.50 0 

0.48 8 

0.50 7 

0.50 7 

0.50 2 

0.49 5 

0.49 6 

0.49 7 

0.50 4 

0.53 1 

0.54 7 

0.57 3 

0.62 0 

0.63 7 

0.65 9 

0.67 8 

0.74 8 

0.86 3 

497 

511 

533 

0.550 

0.58 2 

0.62 4 

0.64 4 

0.66 0 

0.69 2 

0.77 7 

0.84 7 

0.38 9 

0.38 4 

0.38 2 

0.40 9 

0.43 3 

0.44 0 

0.44 4 

0.44 0 

0.47 1 

0.48 6 

0.49 8 

0.49 7 

0.50 5 

0.50 5 

0.50 0 

0.49 3 

0.49 8 

0.49 8 

0.51 6 

0.53 7 

0.55 4 

0.59 3 

0.62 8 

0.64 8 

0.66 2 

0.70 5 

0.81 0 

0.84 2 

0.38 7 

0.39 0 

0.38 7 

0.41 2 

0.43 5 

0.45 1 

0.44 2 

0.44 6 

0.47 7 

0.49 2 

0.49 1 

0.49 8 

0.50 8 

0.49 7 

0.49 8 

0.49 4 

0.50 1 

0.49 7 

0.52 1 

0.53 8 

0.56 1 

0.60 5 

0.63 9 

0.65 1 

0.66 6 

0.72 3 

0.84 1 

0.86 0 

0.38 2 

0.38 8 

0.38 3 

0.40 8 

0.43 0 

0.44 1 

0.44 6 

0.43 9 

0.46 7 

0.48 4 

0.49 7 

0.49 4 

0.50 5 

0.50 5 

0.50 0 

0.49 5 

0.49 7 

0.49 7 

0.51 3 

0.53 5 

0.55 3 

0.58 9 

0.62 8 

0.64 5 

0.66 1 

0.69 9 

0.79 4 

0.85 3 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

194d. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

19ol. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1966. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

22.2 

21.6 

21.1 

16.2 

24.0 

25.6 

21.9 

30.1 

32.2 

38.5 

44.5 

49.0 

46.7 

44.0 

44.6 

34.3 

36.8 

47.5 

52.2 

45.2 

28.8 

8.3 

11.9 

16.7 

17.0 

15.3 

15.5 

15.5 

16.0 

16.4 

23.1 

20.9 

21.2 

16.9 

26.5 

23.9 

24.0 

30.3 

32.9 

39.1 

45.6 

49.3 

46.2 

47.8 

43.6 

34.3 

39.4 

49.9 

48.3 

34.8 

41.8 

6.9 

11.8 

16.3 

17.8 

16.1 

17.8 

14.9 

15.3 

17.0 

22.5 

20.9 

21.0 

18.9 

23.8 

23.8 

24.3 

30.4 

34.0 

39.8 

47.0 

48.0 

46.7 

47.6 

42.5 

34.0 

39.8 

51.2 

50.3 

24.1 

50.5 

8.0 

12.1 

18.2 

14.6 

17.2 

17.2 

17.0 

12.8 

19.0 

22.8 

20.0 

19.3 

21.7 

24.1 

22.3 

26.3 

32.7 

34.5 

38.6 

47.8 

49.1 

47.6 

46.1 

36.4 

31.1 

42.1 

53.6 

50.7 

25.5 

48.4 

80. CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES WITH IVA AND CCADJ IN 

1972 DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

81. RATIO OF PROFITS AFTER TAXES WITH IVA AND CCADJ TO 

TOTAL CORPORATE DOMESTIC INCOME (PERCENT) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

16.0 

29.9 

33.1 

26.5 

19.6 

27.4 

27.5 

24.8 

35.5 

33.1 

31.0 

23.4 

33.9 

35.5 

30.4 

41.5 

43.8 

51.8 

59.1 

64.0 

59.0 

53.5 

52.1 

37.8 

38.6 

48.0 

51.2 

40.8 

23.4 

24.2 

31.6 

31.2 

27.8 

26.2 

25.5 

25.7 

26.2 

36.7 

31.7 

30.7 

24.2 

37.3 

33.2 

33.3 

41.8 

44.9 

52.7 

60.6 

63.6 

58.0 

57.6 

50.3 

37.6 

41.1 

50.1 

46.6 

30.2 

33.0 

21.8 

31.3 

31.0 

28.2 

26.1 

26.4 

24.5 

27.2 

35.2 

31.3 

30.2 

27.3 

33.5 

33.0 

33.7 

41.7 

46.0 

53.3 

62.0 

61.5 

58.2 

56.8 

48.2 

36.8 

41.1 

51.1 

47.7 

35.5 

29.8 

27.7 

30.9 

33.7 

31.0 

36.3 

44.7 

46.6 

51.6 

62.9 

62.4 

58.7 

54.3 

40.7 

33.1 

43.0 

52.9 

47.1 

61.2 

62.9 

58.5 

55.6 

47.8 

36.3 

41.0 

50.5 

48.2 

28.1 

33.1 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

9.4 

10.9 

13.4 

10.1 

9.9 

8.6 

10.8 

10.9 

12.0 

12.8 

13.0 

11.6 

10.1 

9.1 

6.4 

6.7 

8.0 

7.4 

4.7 

3.5 

11.7 

9.7 

9.3 

7.9 

10.8 

9.3 

9.3 

10.7 

11.1 

12.1 

7.3 

10.7 

12.8 

14.8 

11.1 

11.1 

9.0 

8.3 

11.1 

9.7 

9.2 

9 

7 

5 

5 

7 

6 

9 

8.1 

6.7 

3.9 

5.1 

8.0 

10.5 

14.2 

12.5 

11.2 

10.4 

9.7 

7.3 

10.3 

10.9 

9.1 

8.7 

9.5 

9.8 

8.9 

9.6 

11.1 

11.2 

11.5 

13.0 

7.1 

5.9 

7.0 

8.1 

6.6 

2.1 

5.6 

82. RATE OF CAPACITY UTILIZATION, MANUFACTURING (FRB) 

(PERCENT) 

83. RATE OF CAPACITY UTILIZATION, MANUFACTURING 

(PERCENT) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

83.9 

76.9 

75.6 

88.3 

84.6 

91.0 

80.8 

84.5 

87.6 

86.5 

74.1 

81.4 

84.5 

73.8 

81.2 

82.3 

84.5 

88.9 

91.1 

88.2 

87.1 

87.2 

81.4 

77.5 

80.9 

87.1 

85.7 

70.9 

87. 

86. 

84. 

72. 

84. 

81. 

76. 

81. 

83.8 

85.5 

89.4 

91.6 

86.6 

87.4 

86.5 

77 

82.4 

87.6 

85.8 

71.3 

82.5 

73.8 

87.0 

84.1 

84.2 

90.0 

79.1 

87.5 

84.2 

83.9 

75.4 

80.5 

78.9 

78.4 

81.6 

83.6 

86.1 

89.9 

91.2 

85.9 

86.8 

86.4 

79.0 

77.8 

83.4 

87.8 

85.5 

75.3 

80.4 

72.4 

87.5 

83.5 

89.8 

84.7 

80.8 

88.6 

86.3 

79.4 

78.2 

80.1 

75.8 

80.6 

81.6 

84.2 

86.5 

90.0 

90.6 

86.9 

86.8 

84.8 

76.3 

79.0 

85.8 

87.7 

79.7 

76.8 

82.5 

74.2 

82.8 

85.8 

85.4 

89.2 

80.1 

87.0 

86.2 

83.6 

75.0 

81.6 

80.1 

77.3 

81.4 

83.5 

85.6 

89.6 

91.1 

86.9 

87.0 

86.2 

79.2 

78.0 

83.1 

87.6 

84.2 

73.6 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

86 

84 

85 

85 

82 

80 

82 

86 

84 

75 

87 

83 

85 

84 

82 

81 

82 

86 

84 

75 

86 

84 

84 

85 

79 

80 

83 

85 

84 

79 

86 

85 

85 

85 

84 

80 

80 

85 

85 

78 

79 

148 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

64. RATE OF CAPACITY UTILIZATION, MATERIALS 

(PERCENT) 

1945 

1946 

1947 

194d 

1949 

1950 

1951 

1952 

1953 

1954 

1956 

1957 

1959 

1960 

1961 

1962 

1964 

1965 

1966 

1968 

1972 

1973 

1974 

1975 

1976 

88.1 88.3 88.0 84.7 

80.3 74.4 75.4 74.7 

80.7 87.0 92.6 93.5 

93.6 93.5 88.6 85.3 

85.5 79.7 83.5 90.7 

91.3 92.4 90.4 83.5 

79.6 79.8 79.7 83.3 

88.3 92.4 93.4 93.9 

92.8 90.7 85.0 89.2 

88.2 85.4 85.3 80.0 

72.6 71.1 77.1 80.8 

84.8 89.5 77.8 79.8 

86.6 80.9 78.0 73.7 

71.9 76.5 80.7 82.6 

82.9 81.1 80.7 81.3 

81.8 85.0 83.6 84.8 

85.7 87.1 88.7 89.8 

91.0 91.2 91.7 90.2 

91.8 92.0 91.9 90.1 

87.3 85.3 85.5 87.1 

87.7 88.8 88.4 88.5 

89.4 89.6 90.4 89.6 

86.3 84.5 84.5 81.9 

83.5 83.9 82.1 82.8 

85.7 87.3 88.4 90.6 

92.1 92.5 92.9 92.1 

90.4 89.6 89.1 81.7 

71.5 70.7 74.9 77.1 

87. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT, STRUCTURES, IN 1972 

DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945 

1946 

1947 

1948 

1949 

1950 

1951 

1953 

1954 

1955 

1957 

1960 

1961 

1963 

1964 

1966 

1967 

1968 

1969 

1971 

1972 

1973 

1971) 

1976 

17.6 17.3 17.4 17.0 

17.4 18.2 18.8 19.1 

18.6 18.2 17.4 17.0 

17.9 18.7 19.6 20.3 

20.3 21.1 20.9 20.1 

20.2 20.4 20.6 21.3 

22.0 22.4 22.5 23.0 

23.4 23.6 23.6 23.6 

24.4 24.9 25.7 26.2 

27.2 28.2 23.6 28.5 

28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 

27.5 26.5 25.8 25.9 

25.7 26.7 27.4 27.4 

28.7 28.3 28.5 29.7 

29.6 29.2 29.3 29.2 

29.6 30.8 31.8 31.1 

29.7 31.1 31.1 31.4 

31.6 33.1 34.0 34.7 

36.6 39.6 37.8 42.4 

42.8 42.2 43.1 41.8 

41.9 40.8 41.1 40.5 

42.2 41.6 41.3 42.7 

43.4 43.6 44.8 44.2 

43.0 43.2 42.8 42.3 

42.2 41.9 41.8 41.0 

42.2 42.3 42.4 43.2 

44.3 45.5 46.3 45.7 

44.6 43.5 40.3 39.8 

37.5 36.1 36.6 36.7 

89. RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1947 

1949 

1950 

1954 

1955 

1956 

1958 

1963 

1968 

1976 

19.8 18.7 21.5 25.7 

25.5 27.0 26.2 24.2 

22.5 22.2 24.1 27.1 

30.5 33.4 35.2 33.5 

31.6 27.3 25.5 25.7 

26.2 26.6 26.4 27.8 

28.3 28.4 27.4 27.2 

27.5 29.3 31.1 33.0 

35.5 36.0 35.2 33.7 

32.5 32.3 31.6 31.1 

30.4 29.6 29.3 29.5 

28.7 28.7 30.8 34.1 

37.9 39.2 38.3 36.9 

38.2 34.8 33.5 33.4 

33.8 34.0 35.7 37.0 

37.1 38.6 38.9 38.8 

40.2 43.3 43.9 45.6 

46.4 44.1 42.8 41.9 

43.4 44.1 43.0 42.3 

42.7 40.1 38.0 33.3 

32.7 36.3 38.4 41.4 

41.9 42.9 42.8 43.6 

45.2 44.7 42.9 40.1 

40.2 38.3 39.6 43.4 

46.4 51.3 54.6 56.4 

60.9 61.6 61.7 63.8 

64.4 62.0 58.3 54.0 

49.9 47.0 43.9 39.3 

35.4 36.8 39.6 41.9 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

87.3 

76.2 

88.4 

90.2 

84.8 

89.4 

80.6 

92.0 

89.4 

84.7 

75.4 

83.0 

79.8 

77.9 

81.5 

83.8 

87.8 

91.0 

91.4 

86.3 

88.4 

89.8 

84.3 

83.1 

88.0 

92.4 

87.7 

73.6 

AVERAGE | 

18.8 

17.3 

18.4 

17.8 

19.1 

20.6 

20.6 

22.5 

23.5 

25.3 

28.1 

28.1 

26.4 

26.8 

28.8 

29.3 

30.8 

30.8 

33.3 1 

39.6 

42.5 

41.1 

42.0 

44.0 

42.8 

41.7 

42.5 

45.5 

42.1 

36.7 

AVERAGE 

16.8 

21.5 

25.8 

24.0 

33.2 

27.5 

26.8 

27.8 

30.2 

35.1 

31.9 

29.7 

30.6 

38.1 

35.0 

35.1 

38.4 

43.2 

43.8 

43.2 

38.5 

37.2 

42.8 

43.2 

40.4 

52.2 

62.0 

59.7 

45.0 

38.4 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

86. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN 1972 

DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1947 

1949 

1950 

1954 

1955 

1957 

1960 

1969 

1971 

1973 

1975 

49.8 48.8 48.0 49.0 

51.6 50.4 50.4 51.8 

49.3 46.8 44.4 43.5 

44.8 48.9 53.0 53.3 

51.8 53.0 53.9 52.9 

53.1 53.7 48.9 52.8 

55.6 55.8 57.0 56.6 

55.3 54.8 55.9 55.5 

56.6 60.1 63.1 65.1 

64.2 65.2 66.0 65.5 

65.9 65.7 67.1 65.4 

61.2 58.5 57.2 58.9 

60.4 62.4 64.3 64.5 

66.7 67.0 65.2 65.2 

64.0 65.2 65.6 67.6 

69.0 71.3 72.2 71.3 

70.5 72.7 74.6 76.4 

77.6 79.9 82.2 84.5 

90.0 93.8 97.1 101.5 

104.7 106.1 107.0 106.4 

103.7 103.3 102.8 104.1 

106.9 105.9 107.9 111.3 

113.9 113.7 115.2 114.2 

111.6 111.7 110.8 106.0 

107.8 107.1 107.4 109.6 

113.3 114.6 116.5 122.9 

128.5 130.7 132.5 132.4 

133.5 131.6 127.3 121.8 

114.4 110.6 110.1 110.5 

88. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT, PRODUCERS' DURABLE 

EQUIPMENT, IN 1972 DOLLARS (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.) 

1945 

1952 

1954 

1958 

1959 

1964 

1968 

1974 

32.2 31.5 30.6 32.0 

34.2 32.1 31.6 32.8 

30.7 28.5 27.0 26.5 

26.9 30.2 33.4 33.0 

31.4 31.9 32.9 32.8 

33.0 33.3 28.3 31.5 

33.7 33.4 34.4 33.7 

31.9 31.2 32.3 31.9 

32.2 35.2 37.4 38.9 

37.0 36.9 37.4 37.0 

37.7 37.5 38.9 37.4 

33.7 31.9 31.4 32.9 

34.7 35.8 36.9 37.1 

38.0 38.7 36.8 35.5 

34.3 36.0 36.3 38.4 

39.4 40.4 40.3 40.2 

40.8 41.6 43.4 45.0 

46.0 46.8 48.2 49.8 

53.4 54.2 57.3 59.1 

62.0 63.8 63.9 64.6 

61.8 62.6 61.7 63.6 

64.7 64.3 66.6 68.6 

70.5 70.2 70.4 70.0 

68.6 68.5 68.0 63.8 

65.7 65.2 65.6 68.7 

71.1 72.2 74.1 79.7 

84.2 85.1 86.2 86.7 

88.9 88.1 86.9 82.0 

76.9 74.5 73.5 73.8 

97. BACKLOG OF CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS, MANUFACTURING1 

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1968 

... ... 

. 

5.81 5.66 5.76 5.61 

5.25 4.88 4.65 4.82 

5.46 6.62 8.26 9.85 

11.15 11.82 11.97 11.92 

11.95 11.48 10.30 9.13 

7.94 7.24 7.09 7.07 

7.52 8.13 8.81 9.41 

9.50 9.09 8.50 8.41 

8.13 7.96 8.07 8.07 

8.31 8.19 8.16 8.54 

8.56 9.05 9.66 10.48 

11.33 12.41 13.69 13.96 

14.83 15.91 16.78 17.92 

19.00 20.21 20.28 20.21 

19.98 19.83 19.89 19.86 

20.03 19.93 20.28 20.85 

21.40 22.71 23.23 23.44 

23.13 22.50 21.71 20.86 

20.20 19.48 19.29 18.89 

19.42 20.40 21.40 23.28 

26.03 29.62 33.36 37.11 

39.84 44.80 50.01 49.79 

49.10 47.59 45.34 46.45 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

42.6 

48.9 

51.0 

46.0 

50.0 

52.9 

52.1 

56.3 

55.4 

61.2 

65.2 

66.0 

58.9 

62.9 

66.0 

65.6 

70.9 

73.5 

81.0 

95.6 

106.1 

103.5 

108.0 

114.3 

110.0 

108.0 

116.8 

131.0 

128.5 

111.4 

AVERAGE 

23.2 

31.6 

32.7 

28.2 

30.9 

32.3 

31.5 

33.8 

31.8 

35.9 

37.1 

37.9 

32.5 

36.1 

37.2 

36.3 

40.1 

42.7 

47.7 

56.0 

63.6 

62.4 

66.1 

70.3 

67.2 

66.3 

74.3 

85.5 

86.5 

74.7 

END OF PERIOD 

5.61 

4.82 

9.85 

11.92 

9.13 

7.07 

9.41 

8.41 

8.07 

8.54 

10.48 

13.96 

17.92 

20.21 

19.86 

20.85 

23.44 

20.86 

18.89 

23.28 

37.11 

49.79 

46.45 

"This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. 

BCD 1977 149 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

1U7. RATIO 

1955 

1956 

1957 

1961 

200. GI 

1947 

1956 

1957 

1963 

1964 

1965 

1966 

1967 

1968 

1970 

20 

CU 

1948 

1950 

1952 

1955 

1960 

1961 

1962 

1965 

1970 

1971 

1974 

1975 

1976, 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

♦ 

IIQ III Q IVQ 

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT TO MONEY SUPPLY Ml 

(RATIO) 

2.048 2.053 2.072 

2.207 2.293 2.353 

2.339 2.303 2.330 

2.387 2.435 2.563 

2.732 2.772 2.794 

2.762 2.741 2.758 

2.864 2.872 2.860 

2.804 2.796 2.804 

2.903 2.944 2.995 

3.038 3.071 3.106 

3.206 3.221 3.272 

3.202 3.197 3.260 

3.338 3.407 3.367 

3.543 3.547 3.518 

3.502 3.549 3.589 

3.706 3.752 3.798 

3.822 3.835 3.879 

3.957 3.982 3.978 

4.045 4.093 4.145 

4.234 4.260 4.330 

4.388 4.373 4.367 

4.428 4.470 4.474 

4.473 4.505 4.568 

4.583 4.582 4.600 

4.649 4.632 4.626 

4.743 4.774 4.777 

4.910 4.925 4.968 

5.U32 5.063 5.126 

5.114 5.152 5.289 

2.154 

2.375 

2.311 

2.639 

2.777 

2.826 

2.817 

2.841 

3.036 

3.154 

3.251 

3.314 

3.437 

3.499 

3.646 

3.805 

3.903 

3.953 

4.184 

4.397 

4.387 

4.458 

4.572 

4.556 

4.677 

4.822 

5.043 

5.134 

5.391 

W S S NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

197.4 205.0 215.3 

224.9 229.1 233.3 

249.6 257.1 264.0 

260.1 256.6 258.6 

267.4 276.9 294.5 

319.9 327.7 334.4 

341.1 341.3 347.0 

365.4 368.8 367.8 

362.C 361.8 366.2 

387.5 395.4 404.0 

411.9 417.4 422.4 

438.9 441.0 448.2 

435.8 439.9 453.1 

476.0 489.9 486.5 

506.6 506.5 506.2 

507.1 518.2 527.2 

553.0 562.1 567.8 

580.2 587.9 600.5 

622.4 632.4 642.1 

665.4 678.7 695.1 

733.7 747.6 759.0 

777.5 785.8 803.1 

837.3 861.8 880.0 

913.0 929.0 946.9 

964.2 976.5 992.6 

1034.0 1056.2 1072.4 

1127.0 1156.7 1181.4 

1265.3 1288.4 1317.5 

1372.7 1399.4 1431.6 

1446.2 1482.3 1548.7 

)-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN 

220.4 

243.6 

265.5 

256.5 

305.9 

338.5 

359.2 

362.6 

375.0 

410.2 

430.9 

442.8 

466.3 

493.5 

504.6 

540.7 

572.3 

610.4 

646.0 

713.3 

771.7 

818.7 

894.7 

953.3 

996.3 

1091.2 

1219.4 

1355.1 

1449.2 

1588.2 

GNP, 

*RENT DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

16.3 21.7 

8.4 7.6 7.7 

10.2 12.5 11.3 

-7.8 -5.2 3.2 

18.0 15.0 28.0 

19.6 10.1 8.4 

3.1 0.2 6.8 

7.0 3.7 -1.1 

-0.6 -0.2 5.0 

14.0 8.4 8.9 

1.7 5.4 4.9 

7.7 1.9 6.7 

-6.2 3.8 12.6 

8.6 12.2 -2.7 

11.1 -0.1 -0.2 

2.0 9.0 7.1 

9.4 6.7 4.1 

5.6 5.5 8.8 

8.1 6.6 6.3 

12.6 8.2 10.0 

12.0 7.8 6.3 

3.1 4.3 9.1 

9.4 12.2 8.7 

8.5 7.2 7.9 

4.7 5.2 6.8 

16.0 8.8 6.3 

13.8 10.9 8.8 

15.9 7.5 9.4 

5.3 8.0 9.5 

-0.8 10.4 19.1 

9.8 

18.8 

2.2 

-3.2 

16.5 

5.0 

14.9 

-5.5 

10.0 

6.3 

8.3 

-4.7 

12.1 

5.8 

-1.3 

10.7 

3.2 

6.8 

2.4 

10.9 

6.8 

8.0 

6.8 

2.7 

1.5 

7.2 

13.5 

11.9 

5.0 

10.6 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

2.082 

2.307 

2.321 

2.506 

2.769 

2.772 

2.853 

2.811 

2.970 

3.092 

3.238 

3.243 

3.387 

3.527 

3.572 

3.765 

3.860 

3.968 

4.117 

4.305 

4.379 

4.458 

4.530 

4.580 

4.646 

4.779 

4.962 

5.089 

5.236 

AVERAGE 

209.6 

232.8 

259.1 

258.0 

286.2 

330.2 

347.2 

366.1 

366.3 

399.3 

420.7 

442.8 

448.9 

486.5 

506.0 

523.3 

563.8 

594.7 

635.7 

688.1 

753.0 

796.3 

868.5 

935.5 

982.4 

1063.4 

1171.1 

1306.6 

1413.2 

1516.3 

PERCENT 

CHANGE' 

ii.i 

11.3 

-0.4 

10.9 

15.4 

5.1 

5.5 

0.0 

9.0 

5.4 

5.2 

1.4 

8.4 

4.0 

3.4 

7.7 

5.5 

6.9 

8.2 

9.4 

5.8 

9.1 

7.7 

5.0 

8.2 

10.1 

11.6 

8.2 

7.3 

Year 

11U. TOTAL 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ III Q 

FUNDS RAISED BY PRIVATE NONFINANCIAL 

IVQ 

BORROWERS 

IN CREDIT MARKETS (ANNUAL RATE, MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1946 

1947 

1950 

1952 

1953 

1955 

1957 

1961 

1962 

1963 

1964 

1965 

1966 

1970 

1971 

1972 

1974 

1976 

24,68' 

26,30' 

\ 27,900 27,092 

\ 24,220 21,124 

20,356 23,028 27,416 

35,088 38,388 39,796 

39,100 34,300 34,496 

36,228 35,468 30,840 

28,616 29,808 30,316 

45,136 50,708 49,332 

47,920 39,740 39,040 

32,396 36,832 43,700 

46,712 49,128 46,688 

52,200 57,620 54,536 

58,688 64,244 64,196 

71,644 68,328 69,568 

73,504 82,276 59,640 

67,528 62,568 71,448 

74,576 76,716 85,064 

100,280 101,468 93,080 

85,216 86,412 85,008 

113,932 121,816 143,348 

148,852 151,540 147,708 

202,224 183,364 189,644 

181,732 203,356 175,536 

97,252 109,644 128,060 

200-B. DIFFERENCE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN GNP, 

31,768 

18,428 

30,228 

41,448 

34,708 

28,848 

43,052 

38,108 

35,816 

48,868 

48,432 

57,160 

65,064 

70,136 

47,252 

82,052 

102,648 

93,760 

97,356 

124,668 

198,632 

182,224 

146,612 

165,696 

CURRENT 

DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945 

1946 

1949 

1950 

1951 

1953 

1955 

1961 

1965 

1966 

1967 

1968 

1969 

1970 

1971 

1973 

1974 

1975 

1976 

1945 

1946 

1948 

1955 

1956 

1958 

1960 

1972 

1973 

7.6 10.3 

4.5 4.2 4.2 

6.0 7.5 6.9 

-5.4 -3.5 2.0 

10.9 9.5 17.6 

14.0 7.8 6.7 

2.6 0.2 5.7 

6.2 3.4 -1.0 

-0.6 -0.2 4.4 

12.5 7.9 8.6 

1.7 5.5 5.0 

8.0 2.1 7.2 

-7.0 4.1 13.2 

9.7 13.9 -3.4 

13.1 -0.1 -0.3 

2.5 11.1 9.0 

12.3 9.1 5.7 

7.9 7.7 12.6 

12.0 10.0 9.7 

19.4 13.3 16.4 

20.4 13.9 11.4 

5.8 8.3 17.3 

18.6 24.5 18.2 

18.3 16.0 17.9 

10.9 12.3 16.1 

37.7 22.2 16.2 

35.8 29.7 24.7 

45.9 23.1 29.1 

17.6 26.7 32.2 

-3.0 36.1 66.4 

213. FINAL SALES IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

463.9 468.4 470.8 

473.2 480.4 483.9 

491.3 496.1 495.9 

507.0 517.4 534.4 

549.0 553.3 570.1 

584.0 594.8 592.9 

618.2 621.1 620.6 

611.5 609.7 617.1 

635.2 642.7 652.5 

656.5 662.0 663.0 

677.9 678.0 682.0 

670.2 674.4 684.0 

705.7 713.3 718.9 

727.1 734.0 732.7 

740.3 747.1 752.1 

777.5 789.1 796.3 

805.9 816.8 829.5 

855.0 864.0 873.2 

889.7 905.8 919.9 

956.0 958.4 970.3 

979.9 993.9 1001.4 

1025.2 1037.6 1052.6 

1065.0 1067.4 1070.0 

1070.7 1069.3 1075.7 

1087.4 1093.3 1106.0 

1136.4 1152.9 1166.0 

1218.1 1216.3 1222.2 

1219.1 1211.4 1207.8 

1181.6 1198.2 1210.2 

5.1 

10.3 

1.5 

-2.1 

11.4 

4.1 

12.2 

-5.2 

8.8 

6.2 

8.5 

-5.4 

13.2 

7.0 

-1.6 

13.5 

4.5 

9.9 

3.9 

18.2 

12.7 

15.6 

14.7 

6.4 

3.7 

18.8 

38.0 

37.6 

17.6 

39.5 

471.6 

490.6 

496.9 

532.5 

578.7 

605.3 

621.4 

624.6 

657.8 

670.3 

679.7 

696.8 

718.0 

735.8 

770.2 

801.0 

839.8 

876.1 

943.2 

972.3 

1007.7 

1057.0 

1070.6 

1068.2 

1116.9 

1191.3 

1217.2 

1183.7 

1224.7 

; Annual 

AVERAGE 

27,861 

22,519 

25,257 

38,680 

1 35,651 

32,846 

32,948 

45,821 

40,629 

40,449 

47,740 

55,379 

63,048 

69,919 

65,668 

70,899 

84,751 

97,147 

88,498 

125,941 

161,683 

189,364 

176,809 

125,163 

DIFFERENCE1 

23.2 

26.3 

-1.1 

28.2 

44.0 

17.0 

18.9 

0.2 

33.0 

21.4 

22.1 

6.1 

37.6 

19.5 

17.3 

40.5 

30.9 

41.0 

52.4 

64.9 

43.3 

72.2 

S7.0 

46.9 

81.0 

107.7 

135.5 

106.6 

103.1 

AVERAGE 

465.5 

468.5 

482.2 

495.1 

522.9 

562.8 

594.2 

620.3 

615.8 

647.1 

663.0 

679.4 

681.3 

714.0 

732.4 

752.4 

791.0 

823.0 

867.1 

914.6 

964.3 

995.7 

1043.1 

1068.2 

1071.0 

1100.9 

1161.7 

1218.5 

1205.5 

1203.7 

1 Year-to-year differences and percent changes are computed from annual data. 

150 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

217. PER CAPITA GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, DOLLARS) 

1946. . . 

1947 

1948 

1949 

1950... 

1951. . . , 

1952... 

1953 

1954 

1955..., 

1956 

1958 

1959 

1960 

1962 

1967 

1971. . . 

1975 

1976 

3,241 3,251 3,240 3,264 

3,275 3,321 3,339 3,358 

3,310 3,284 3,300 3,257 

3,391 3,469 3,568 3,631 

3,668 3,723 3,781 3,769 

3,790 3,780 3,803 3,876 

3,922 3,933 3,891 3,835 

3,768 3,737 3,774 3,827 

3,903 3,946 3,986 4,006 

3,972 3,976 3,960 3,986 

3,997 3,984 3,993 3,924 

3,832 3,845 3,921 4,004 

4,037 4,110 4,049 4,074 

4,122 4,097 4,063 4,023 

4,033 4,085 4,121 4,202 

4,247 4,287 4,303 4,293 

4,320 4,360 4,423 4,449 

4,509 4,552 4,580 4,581 

4,667 4,724 4,790 4,875 

4,953 4,974 5,005 5,027 

5,023 5,046 5,093 5,118 

5,157 5,235 5,283 5,283 

5,322 5,333 5,337 5,293 

5,261 5,250 5,273 5,206 

5,309 5,335 5,358 5,390 

5,480 5,574 5,634 5,738 

5,860 5,856 5,869 5,888 

5,821 5,767 5,718 5,606 

5,454 5,519 5,656 5,691 

224. DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945... , 

1946 

1947. . , 

1950 

1952 

1953 

1962... 

1963... , 

1966 

152.0 156.0 161.5 165.0 

165.8 163.7 170.9 173.2 

178.7 186.1 192.7 192.6 

187.5 186.8 186.5 188.0 

200.8 200.2 207.6 213.2 

219.3 224.2 226.0 229.2 

229.8 232.6 238.9 243.9 

247.3 251.5 251.9 252.1 

253.5 253.0 255.5 260.6 

264.4 270.7 276.8 281.2 

284.4 288.8 292.7 299.0 

302.0 305.8 310.1 310.3 

310.5 312.6 320.1 325.2 

329.6 336.7 337.1 341.1 

345.7 349.7 350.8 351.2 

354.3 359.7 365.2 372.4 

377.5 382.8 385.8 389.5 

394.5 398.9 405.0 412.7 

422.5 435.1 442.2 448.3 

455.0 464.1 479.2 490.2 

498.6 504.7 514.8 523.5 

532.0 539.8 548.6 557.7 

572.2 586.3 592.3 601.9 

608.7 621.8 639.7 651.5 

663.0 683.2 696.2 701.4 

723.8 740.2 748.1 759.1 

775.0 787.0 806.2 837.0 

866.6 890.9 911.4 937.7 

948.4 969.5 998.0 1015.8 

1023.8 1088.2 1091.5 1119.9 

227. PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, DOLLARS) 

1958 

2,247 2,188 2,227 2,188 

2,226 2,284 2,320 2,319 

2,265 2,256 2,247 2,246 

2,390 2,367 2,376 2,405 

2,378 2,420 2,419 2,408 

2,396 2,412 2,453 2,467 

2,484 2,510 2,490 2,480 

2,469 2,446 2,475 2,511 

2,519 2,562 2,593 2,622 

2,630 2,639 2,641 2,661 

2,651 2,656 2,657 2,637 

2,602 2,608 2,653 2,678 

2,684 2,716 2,686 2,696 

2,702 2,708 2,696 2,673 

2,686 2,714 2,731 2,769 

2,783 2,799 2,802 2,803 

2,818 2,835 2,854 2,884 

2,931 3,006 3,033 3,056 

3,078 3,110 3,186 3,233 

3,250 3,256 3,283 3,304 

3,342 3,363 3,379 3,396 

3,432 3,475 3,468 3,477 

3,475 3,494 3,541 3,551 

3,564 3,629 3,656 3,623 

3,690 3,723 3,713 3,732 

3,763 3,790 3,844 3,948 

4,027 4,056 4,074 4,085 

4,006 3,970 3,968 3,923 

3,889 4,078 4,009 4,049 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

3,249 

3,323 

3,288 

3,515 

3,735 

3,812 

3,895 

3,776 

3,960 

3,974 

3,974 

3,900 

4,068 

4,076 

4,110 

4,282 

4,388 

4,556 

4,764 

4,990 

5,070 

5,240 

5,321 

5,248 

5,348 

5,606 

5,868 

5,728 

5,580 

AVERAGE 

158!6 

168.4 

187.4 

187.1 

205.5 

224.8 

236.4 

250.7 

255.7 

273.4 

291.3 

306.9 

317.1 

336.1 

349.4 

362.9 

383.9 

402.8 

437.0 

472.2 

510.4 

544.5 

588.1 

630.4 

685.9 

742.8 

801.3 

901.7 

982.9 

1080.9 

AVERAGE 

2,351 

2,212 

2,288 

2,253 

2,386 

2,408 

2,434 

2,491 

2,476 

2,577 

2,643 

2,650 

2,636 

2,696 

2,697 

2,725 

2,796 

2,849 

3,009 

3,152 

3,274 

3,371 

3,464 

3,515 

3,619 

3,714 

3,837 

4,062 

3,968 

4,007 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

220. NATIONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1947 

1951 

1954 

1958 

1959 

1960 

1961 

1962 

1967 

1969 

1972 

1973 

1975 

167.4 174.7 182.5 188.4 

190.5 191.7 194.1 201.7 

210.5 218.1 222.8 224.6 

217.2 212.2 212.3 209.2 

217.8 228.0 243.5 255.4 

264.6 270.7 274.7 279.3 

280.6 281.1 286.1 295.8 

300.6 302.8 301.5 294.0 

294.9 295.4 299.0 307.2 

317.5 325.9 331.2 338.0 

340.0 344.8 347.8 354.4 

360.3 362.1 365.8 360.4 

354.3 355.4 366.3 379.4 

389.5 402.1 396.6 400.1 

412.9 413.0 412.5 409.6 

410.7 419.5 427.2 439.5 

448.5 455.4 459.6 465.9 

471.2 479.0 486.6 494.6 

505.8 515.3 525.3 530.4 

547.1 559.0 570.9 586.9 

606.3 617.7 627.7 637.1 

641.2 647.8. 660.1 674.2 

690.3 708.6 723.4 735.4 

750.2 763.8 776.5 781.2 

787.9 795.7 805.8 804.0 

835.0 851.8 863.4 882.1 

919.1 937.2 959.8 991.7 

1030.9 1051.2 1073.6 1102.7 

1113.5 1125.6 1147.6 1156.3 

1149.7 1182.7 1233.4 1264.6 

225. DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1972 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945 

1948 

1951 

1952 

1953 

1954 

1956 

1960 

1961 

1962 

1969 

1970 

1971 

321.7 314.6 321.7 317.5 

324.5 334.2 341.0 342.5 

335.9 335.9 336.0 337.3 

360.6 358.3 361.3 367.3 

364.7 372.5 374.2 374.2 

373.8 377.9 385.9 389.9 

394.1 399.7 398.3 398.6 

398.4 396.4 402.9 410.7 

413.7 422.6 429.6 436.6 

439.7 443.1 445.4 451.0 

451.3 454.0 456.2 454.8 

450.4 453.2 463.0 469.5 

472.6 480.0 476.8 480.7 

485.5 488.4 488.2 486.3 

490.6 497.6 502.8 511.9 

516.4 521.1 523.7 526.1 

530.6 535.5 541.1 549.1 

559.7 575.8 583.0 589.7 

595.5 603.4 620.1 631.3 

636.2 639.0 646.4 652.6 

661.6 667.5 672.5 677.7 

686.3 696.6 697.0 700.7 

701.8 707.2 718.8 723.0 

727.4 742.6 750.1 745.6 

761.4 769.9 769.9 775.9 

783.7 790.7 803.7 827.1 

845.1 852.7 858.2 862.1 

846.7 840.6 841.7 834.0 

827.9 869.7 857.1 867.5 

230. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL, IN CURRENT 

DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1946 

1949 

1960 

1972 

134.5 139.6 148.4 152.7 

156.0 159.9 163.5 167.6 

170.3 174.0 176.9 177.8 

176.6 178.2 177.6 180.1 

182.9 186.8 200.4 197.8 

208.3 203.8 206.2 209.9 

211.1 215.1 217.2 225.0 

228.3 229.9 230.5 230.0 

231.9 234.3 236.4 240.8 

246.8 251.9 256.0 260.0 

261.4 263.9 266.8 271.9 

276.1 278.3 282.8 284.4 

284.0 286.8 291.7 295.4 

303.5 309.1 314.2 316.2 

319.8 325.9 326.0 328.0 

328.5 333.1 335.7 342.7 

347.5 353.0 357.0 363.4 

367.2 371.2 377.8 382.1 

390.5 397.8 405.7 407.5 

417.7 424.1 432.7 446.1 

455.9 460.3 469.1 473.9 

478.6 487.6 494.2 501.1 

517.6 528.5 544.5 553.1 

563.8 574.1 584.5 596.4 

606.4 615.2 625.1 628.4 

648.6 662.9 674.1 687.1 

705.9 724.7 739.7 761.8 

787.2 801.0 818.2 833.1, 

853.3 878.7 906.8 911.1 

933.2 960.3 987.3 1012.0 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

n's'.3 

194.6 

219.0 

212.7 

236^2 

272.3 

285.8 

299.7 

299.1 

328.0 

346.9 

362.3 

364.0 

397.1 

412.0 

424.2 

457.4 

482.8 

519.2 

566.0 

622.2 

655.8 

714.4 

767.9 

798.4 

858.1 

951.9 

1064.6 

1135.7 

1207.6 

AVERAGE 

332.4 

318.8 

335.5 

336.1 

361.9 

371.6 

382.1 

397.5 

402.1 

425.9 

444.9 

453.9 

459.0 

477.4 

487.3 

500.6 

521.6 

539.2 

577.3 

612.4 

643.6 

669.8 

695.2 

712.3 

741.6 

769.0 

801.3 

854.7 

840.8 

855.5 

AVERAGE 

143i8 

161.7 

174.7 

178.1 

192.0 

207.1 

217.1 

229.7 

235.8 

253.7 

266.0 

280.4 

289.5 

310.8 

324.9 

335.0 

355.2 

374.6 

400.4 

430.2 

464.8 

490.4 

535.9 

579.7 

618.8 

668.2 

733.0 

809.9 

887.5 

973.2 

BCD 1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

231. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL, IN 1972 

DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1960 

1961 

1962 

1963 

1965 

1970 

1973 

302.7 307.3 307.6 307.2 

309.3 312.5 313.1 316.1 

316.5 320.5 320.0 323.1 

328.3 334.3 348.9 340.8 

346.5 338.5 341.4 342.8 

343.5 349.5 351.0 359.6 

363.7 365.3 364.4 363.5 

364.4 367.1 372.7 379.5 

386.2 393.2 397.4 403.6 

404.1 404.8 406.0 410.2 

412.6 413.2 416.1 416.9 

411.9 415.7 421.8 426.5 

435.1 440.8 444.4 445.6 

449.2 455.1 453.6 454.1 

454.8 460.8 462.2 471.1 

475.3 480.7 484.6 490.8 

493.9 498.3 504.8 508.4 

517.4 526.4 535.0 536.0 

546.7 551.4 559.8 574.5 

581.7 582.8 589.0 590.8 

595.1 602.9 605.8 608.8 

620.8 628.0 640.8 644.0 

649.9 653.0 656.8 661.9 

665.4 668.7 673.6 668.0 

682.3 689.5 693.6 702.3 

713.7 728.1 737.5 752.8 

767.7 766.8 770.4 765.9 

761.8 761.9 764.7 748.1 

754.6 767.5 775.3 783.9 

233. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, DURABLE GOODS, IN 

1972 DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945 

1953 

1955 

1968 

1974 

1975 

29.4 29.9 30.3 32.7 

32.7 32.7 33.5 33.5 

33.0 36.3 37.5 38.3 

39.6 40.0 49.9 44.2 

45.2 38.9 37.9 37.8 

38.4 39.3 36.8 41.4 

43.2 42.7 42.7 43.5 

41.9 42.5 43.5 46.1 

49.2 52.4 53.9 53.3 

50.4 49.9 49.2 49.8 

51.0 49.8 49.0 49.0 

46.1 45.6 46.2 47.8 

50.6 52.5 53.3 50.8 

52.2 53.4 52.9 51.5 

48.6 49.3 50.4 52.8 

53.9 55.2 55.7 58.1 

59.2 60.4 61.1 62.0 

64.1 65.6 67.6 65.4 

71.4 71.4 73.9 76.9 

80.4 76.9 79.4 79.1 

77.5 80.9 80.1 80.2 

85.2 86.6 90.5 90.7 

92.2 92.0 91.6 91.7 

89.7 90.7 90.7 84.5 

93.6 96.5 98.7 103.7 

106.4 109.2 111.8 117.6 

124.9 123.0 121.2 118.1 

114.9 115.0 116.1 103.1 

106.0 108.4 115.1 118.0 

236. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, NONDURABLE GOODS, 

IN CURRENT DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1972 

1975 

78.9 80.6 85.1 86.3 

87.7 90.1 92.1 93.6 

95.1 97.0 97.0 97.3 

96.3 95.3 93.5 94.3 

94.8 96.3 100.9 100.9 

107.6 107.1 109.0 111.4 

110.8 113.0 115.0 116.9 

117.0 116.9 116.2 116.0 

117.1 117.1 118.1 119.5 

120.5 122.2 123.3 125.7 

127.2 128.1 129.4 130.8 

132.5 133.9 137.2 136.9 

137.6 138.9 140.8 141.9 

144.3 145.6 147.1 148.7 

148.8 151.8 151.4 152.5 

153.9 154.7 155.2 157.4 

159.3 160.6 162.2 164.1 

165.2 165.9 168.3 168.8 

172.7 175.7 179.1 180.1 

182.6 186.0 189.5 196.5 

200.5 203.9 206.8 207.4 

209.6 211.2 213.4 216.2 

223.0 227.6 233.9 237.0 

240.8 244.9 249.0 253.4 

259.0 262.4 266.4 271.2 

272.4 276.7 278.9 282.7 

287.6 296.4 302.2 311.2 

321.4 327.6 338.1 348.1 

360.6 371.9 383.8 388.5 

394.4 405.8 414.6 421.6 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

30i.4 

306.2 

312.8 

320.0 

338.1 

342.3 

350.9 

364.2 

370.9 

395.1 

406.3 

414.7 

419.0 

441.5 

453.0 

462.2 

482.9 

501.4 

528.7 

558.1 

586.1 

603.2 

633.4 

655.4 

668.9 

691.9 

733.0 

767.7 

759.1 

770.3 

AVERAGE 

25.8 

30.6 

33.1 

36.3 

43.4 

39.9 j 

38.9 

43.1 

43.5 

52.2 

49.8 

49.7 

46.4 

51.8 

52.5 

50.3 

55.7 

60.7 

65.7 

73.4 

79.0 

79.7 

88.2 

91.9 

88.9 

98.1 

111.2 

121.8 

112.3 

111.9 

AVERAGE 1 

82.7 

90.9 

96.6 

94.9 

98.2 

108.8 

113.9 

116.5 

118.0 

122.9 

128.9 

135.2 

139.8 

146.4 

151.1 

155.3 

161.6 

167.1 

176.9 

188.6 

204.7 

212.6 

230.4 

247.0 

264.7 

277.7 

299.3 

333.8 

376.2 ! 

409.1 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

232. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, DURABLE GOODS, IN 

CURRENT DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945 

1950 

1953 , 

| 1954 

1957 

1960. , , , 

1961 

1962 

1963, 

1971 

1976 

12.6 14.7 17.1 18.7 

19.4 20.0 20.3 22.0 

22.0 22.4 23.7 23.3 

22.8 24.8 25.8 26.8 

27.7 28.1 35.6 31.5 

33.8 28.9 28.3 28.3 

28.9 29.0 27.3 31.4 

32.9 32.8 32.5 31.9 

31.2 31.8 31.3 33.0 

36.2 38.6 40.3 39.4 

37.6 37.6 37.3 38.9 

40.0 39.5 39.1 38.8 

36.8 36.0 36.7 38.0 

41.2 43.0 43.9 41.6 

43.0 43.9 43.4 42.2 

39.7 40.7 41.9 44.0 

45.0 46.3 46.8 48.8 

49.8 51.1 51.9 52.9 

55.0 56.3 58.1 56.0 

61.4 61.3 63.1 65.3 

68.4 65.7 68.2 68.4 

66.9 70.2 70.3 71.2 

76.5 78.1 82.3 83.1 

84.8 85.3 85.5 86.2 

84.8 86.2 86.7 82.1 

92.8 95.9 97.7 102.0 

106.0 109.2 112.2 117.6 

125.7 124.6 123.5 121.1 

118.6 122.5 128.0 117.4 

122.1 127.0 136.0 141.8 

235. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL, AS PERCENT 

OF GNP (PERCENT) 

1946 

1947 

1968 

1972 

1975 

68.1 68.1 68.9 69.3 

69.4 69.8 70.1 68.8 

68.2 67.7 67.0 67.0 

67.9 69.4 68.7 70.2 

68.4 67.5 68.0 64.7 

65.1 62.2 61.7 62.0 

61.9 63.0 62.6 62.6 

62.5 62.3 62.7 63.4 

64.1 64.8 64.6 64.2 

63.7 63.7 63.4 63.4 

63.5 63.2 63.2 63.1 

62.9 63.1 63.1 64.2 

65.2 65.2 64.4 63.3 

63.8 63.1 64.6 64.1 

63.1 64.3 64.4 65.0 

64.8 64.3 63.7 63.4 

62.8 62.8 62.9 63.5 

63.3 63.1 62.9 62.6 

62.7 62.9 63.2 63.1 

62.8 62.5 62.2 62.5 

62.1 61.6 61.8 61.4 

61.6 62.1 61.5 61.2 

61.8 61.3 61.9 61.8 

61.8 61.8 61.7 62.6 

62.9 63.0 63.0 63.1 

62.7 62.8 62.9 63.0 

62.6 62.7 62.6 62.5 

62.2 62.2 62.1 61.5 

62.2 62.8 63.3 62.9 

64.5 64.8 63.8 63.7 

237. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, SERVICES, IN 

CURRENT DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1946 

1947 

43.0 44.4 46.2 47.7 

48.8 49.9 51.1 52.0 

53.2 54.6 56.2 57.2 

57.5 58.1 58.3 59.0 

60.3 62.3 63.9 65.4 

66.9 67.9 69.0 70.1 

71.5 73.1 74.9 76.7 

78.4 80.2 81.8 82.1 

83.6 85.3 87.0 88.3 

90.1 91.1 92.4 94.9 

96.5 98.1 100.1 102.1 

103.6 104.9 106.5 108.7 

109.6 111.9 114.2 115.5 

118.0 120.5 123.2 125.9 

128.0 130.2 131.2 133.3 

135.0 137.6 138.6 141.4 

143.2 146.1 148.0 150.5 

152.1 154.1 157.7 160.4 

162.9 165.7 168.5 171.4 

173.7 176.9 180.1 184.3 

187.0 190.6 194.1 198.0 

202.2 206.2 210.5 213.7 

218.2 222.8 228.3 233.0 

238.2 243.9 249.9 256.8 

262.6 266.6 272.1 275.1 

283.4 290.3 297.5 302.4 

312.3 319.1 325.3 333.0 

340.1 348.8 356.6 363.8 

374.1 384.3 394.9 405.2 

416.7 427.4 436.7 448.6 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

15i8 

20.4 

22.9 

25.0 

30.8 

29.8 

29.1 

32.5 

31.8 

38.6 

37.9 

39.3 

36.8 

42.4 

43.1 

41.6 

46.7 

51.4 

56.3 

62.8 

67.7 

69.6 

80.0 

85.5 

84.9 

97.1 

111.2 

123.7 

121.6 

131.7 

AVERAGE 

68.6 

69.5 

67.5 

69.0 

67.2 

62.8 

62.5 

62.7 

64.4 

63.6 

63.2 

63.3 

64.5 

63.9 

64.2 

64.0 

63.0 

63.0 

63.0 

62.5 

61.7 

61.6 

61.7 

62.0 

63.0 

62.8 

62.6 

62.0 

62.8 

64.2 

AVERAGE 

45!3 

50.4 

55.3 

58.2 

63.0 

68.5 

74.0 

80.6 

86.0 

92.1 

99.2 

105.9 

112.8 

121.9 

130.7 

138.1 

147.0 

156.1 

167.1 

178.7 

192.4 

208.1 

225.6 

247.2 

269.1 

293.4 

322.4 

352.3 

389.6 

432.4 

152 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

IQ IIQ III Q IV Q 

238. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, NONDURABLE GOODS, 

IN 1972 DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1951 

1952 

1954 

1955 

1956 

1958 

1959 

1961 

1962 

1965 

1967 

1968 

1969 

1971 

1973 

153.0 155.8 156.3 154.1 

154.0 155.6 154.1 156.4 

157.2 157.5 156.3 158.4 

160.1 161.7 164.4 161.0 

164.7 162.7 166.0 167.7 

166.5 170.3 172.8 174.9 

176.1 176.6 175.2 174.9 

175.8 175.0 177.2 180.0 

181.4 184.4 185.9 189.8 

191.6 191.1 191.2 192.5 

193.1 193.9 196.7 195.7 

193.4 194.9 198.3 200.6 

203.2 204.6 205.5 206.8 

207.2 209.5 208.1 208.1 

209.6 211.6 211.7 214.8 

216.5 217.3 219.3 220.8 

221.5 222.3 224.1 224.2 

228.2 232.2 236.1 236.7 

239.3 240.9 244.1 251.8 

253.5 255.4 257.2 255.9 

258.3 259.4 259.5 260.8 

266.0 268.4 273.2 273.2 

275.1 275.8 276.8 277.9 

280.3 281.2 283.5 285.8 

286.0 287.5 287.4 289.0 

291.1 298.5 301.4 306.4 

310.9 307.8 310.6 308.0 

305.1 304.0 304.9 299.8 

300.6 307.2 306.8 309.5 

240. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN CURRENT 

DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1950 

1952 

1955 

24.5 31.5 32.6 34.0 

32.7 31.6 31.8 39.7 

43.3 46.1 47.9 46.1 

39.3 32.7 35.7 33.4 

43.6 50.5 55.4 65.6 

60.7 63.9 58.7 53.4 

54.1 47.5 51.1 55.7 

54.8 56.1 54.2 48.2 

49.5 50.4 53.1 57.8 

63.5 67.9 70.1 72.0 

70.8 70.4 71.3 71.6 

69.8 69.8 71.8 65.4 

57.8 56.5 62.5 70.4 

74.2 83.2 73.6 79.2 

86.8 77.7 73.5 67.7 

66.8 72.7 77.7 80.1 

84.6 86.2 86.4 83.6 

86.0 88.9 92.3 93.6 

94.0 96.4 97.4 98.6 

109.2 110.1 114.3 114.5 

121.8 126.7 123.7 125.7 

118.6 115.5 121.7 127.5 

125.1 131.9 132.3 136.8 

144.0 147.2 150.5 143.2 

138.6 140.3 143.3 141.0 

152.7 160.8 161.0 165.4 

176.7 184.9 191.0 200.5 

210.6 218.0 220.0 231.5 

216.4 218.8 213.3 211.5 

172.4 164.4 196.7 201.4 

242. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN 

CURRENT DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945 

1947 

1966 

1967 

1972 

1973 

18.6 22.7 26.5 29.3 

32.3 32.6 34.5 38.3 

40.0 41.0 41.8 41.8 

39.3 38.0 37.4 38.6 

41.2 45.8 50.6 50.6 

50.2 48.7 48.3 48.3 

48.9 49.9 46.8 50.3 

52.4 53.0 53.5 52.8 

52.1 53.1 55.3 56.6 

58.9 61.9 64.0 64.9 

64.8 66.1 67.2 67.3 

1 67.8 67.5 68.6 67.6 

63.2 61.6 62.4 66.3 

70.2 72.8 73.6 72.7 

75.5 73.4 71.2 70.7 

69.8 71.1 72.6 75.1 

76.3 79.1 80.0 79.4 

80.1 83.6 85.1 88.1 

89.4 89.9 91.3 92.6 

98.1 101.2 103.8 106.9 

110.3 111.4 110.7 108.2 

106.3 109.4 111.5 115.8 

119.8 121.4 124.3 129.8 

135.3 136.5 138.6 137.0 

136.0 136.2 137.5 138.4 

145.2 151.2 156.2 161.9 

171.9 174.8 178.8 189.7 

198.8 202.6 204.6 202.5 

203.8 205.8 206.0 201.7 

194.6 194.3 198.6 205.7 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

158i9 

154.8 

155.0 

157.4 

161.8 

165.3 

171.2 

175.7 

177.0 

185.4 

191.6 

194.9 

196.8 

205.0 

208.2 

211.9 

218.5 

223.0 

233.3 

244.0 

255.5 

259.5 

270.2 

276.4 

282.7 

287.5 

299.3 

309.3 

303.5 

306.1 

AVERAGE 

3o!7 

34.0 

45.9 

35.3 

53.8 

59.2 

52.1 

53.3 

52.7 

68.4 

71.0 

69.2 

61.9 

77.6 

76.4 

74.3 

85.2 

90.2 

96.6 

112.0 

124.5 

120.8 

131.5 

146.2 

140.8 

160.0 

188.3 

220.0 

215.0 

183.7 

AVERAGE 

24^3 

34.4 

41.1 

38.4 

47.0 

48.9 

49.0 

52.9 

54.3 

62.4 

66.3 

67.9 

63.4 

72.3 

72.7 

72.1 

78.7 

84.2 

90.8 

102.5 

110.2 

110.7 

i 123.8 

136.8 

137.0 

I 153.6 

178.8 

202.1 

204.3 

198.3 

Year 

Quarterly 

IQ IIQ III Q IV Q 

239. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, SERVICES, IN 1972 

DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1947 

1953 

1954 

1955 

1956 

1967 

1972 

1975 

1976 

120.3 121.6 121.0 120.4 

122.6 124.2 125.5 126.2 

126.3 126.8 126.1 126.3 

128.6 132.6 134.5 135.6 

136.6 137.0 137.5 137.4 

138.6 139.9 141.4 143.3 

144.3 146.0 146.5 145.2 

146.7 149.6 152.0 153.3 

155.6 156.4 157.6 160.5 

162.1 163.8 165.7 167.9 

168.5 169.6 170.3 172.2 

172.4 175.2 177.4 178.1 

181.3 183.7 185.6 188.0 

189.8 192.2 192.6 194.4 

196.6 199.8 200.1 203.6 

205.0 208.2 209.6 212.0 

213.2 215.5 219.6 222.2 

225.1 228.5 231.3 233.9 

236.1 239.1 241.9 245.9 

247.8 250.5 252.5 255.7 

259.3 262.6 266.2 267.8 

269.7 273.0 277.1 280.1 

282.6 285.2 288.4 292.3 

295.4 296.7 299.3 297.7 

302.7 305.5 307.5 309.6 

316.3 320.4 324.2 328.8 

331.9 336.0 338.7 339.7 

341.8 342.9 343.7 345.1 

348.0 351.8 353.4 356.4 

241. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN 1972 

DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

69.7 66.6 66.7 77.5 

81.2 83.0 83.5 81.4 

71.5 61.8 66.0 63.0 

79.8 90.0 96.2 109.0 

96.8 100.3 94.0 85.5 

86.6 77.6 80.8 87.8 

87.9 89.3 86.2 78.8 

79.4 80.0 84.2 90.0 

98.0 104.1 106.1 108.0 

104.2 102.9 102.5 102.0 

98.7 98.2 100.1 91.9 

83.2 81.1 88.4 98.3 

103.3 114.6 102.3 109.6 

118.5 106.7 101.8 94.7 

93.9 101.2 107.9 111.3 

116.7 119.1 119.1 114.8 

118.3 122.9 127.8 129.2 

130.1 131.9 132.2 134.3 

146.7 148.5 152.5 152.6 

161.0 164.0 160.1 160.2 

150.9 147.1 153.3 159.4 

155.1 160.6 159.9 162.6 

168.9 170.6 171.6 161.1 

154.7 154.8 156.7 152.7 

162.2 168.4 167.0 169.7 

179.1 186.2 190.2 197.6 

204.6 207.4 204.9 211.8 

194.8 187.9 176.2 169.1 

129.3 126.2 148.7 147.0 

243. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN 

1972 DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1963 

1973 

69.6 67.6 69.5 74.7 

77.1 77.4 76.6 76.1 

71.8 68.9 68.5 70.6 

75.4 82.3 88.2 86.9 

83.4 80.3 79.4 78.6 

79.3 80.3 75.3 80.6 

83.9 84.2 84.4 83.8 

82.8 84.1 87.0 88.5 

92.1 96.1 98.3 98.8 

96.6 97.4 97.6 96.6 

96.2 95.3 96.4 94.9 

90.0 87.2 88.0 93.0 

98.3 101.6 102.6 101.4 

104.9 101.8 98.8 98.6 

97.7 99.2 101.3 104.6 

106.1 109.9 111.1 110.1 

110.7 116.0 118.5 122.0 

124.0 124.0 124.9 126.4 

133.4 137.9 140.1 143.8 

147.5 146.2 145.0 139.7 

136.4 139.6 141.1 145.5 

148.9 148.9 150.7 155.0 

159.1 158.4 158.1 154.3 

151.8 150.0 150.4 149.5 

154.3 158.4 162.1 166.0 

174.3 176.1 178.2 186.7 

192.9 192.6 190.8 186.4 

183.4 178.5 171.1 161.1 

149.8 147.4 149.7 152.5 

1 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

116*.7 

120.8 

124.6 

126.4 

132.8 

137.1 

140.8 

145.5 

150.4 

157.5 

164.9 

170.2 

175.8 

184.7 

192.3 

200.0 

208.7 

217.6 

229.7 

240.7 

251.6 

264.0 

275.0 

287.2 

297.3 

306.3 

322.4 

336.5 

343.4 

352.4 

AVERAGE 

7i!6 

70.1 

82.3 

65.6 

93.7 

94.1 

83.2 

85.6 

83.4 

104.1 

102.9 

97.2 

87.7 

107.4 

105.4 

103.6 

117.4 

124.5 

132.1 

150.1 

161.3 

152.7 

159.5 

168.0 

154.7 

166.8 

188.3 

207.2 

182.0 

137.8 

AVERAGE 

58i8 

70.4 

76.8 

70.0 

83.2 

80.4 

78.9 

84.1 

85.6 

96.3 

97.1 

95.7 

89.6 

101.0 

101.0 

100.7 

109.3 

116.8 

124.8 

138.8 

144.6 

140.7 

150.8 

157.5 

150.4 

160.2 

178.8 

190.7 

173.5 

149.8 

BCD 1977 153 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

' 

IIQ III Q 

245. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, CHANGE 

IV Q 

IN BUSINESS 

INVENTORIES, ALL INDUSTRIES (ANN. RATE, BILLION DOLLARS) 

... ... ... 

5.9 8.8 6.1 

0.4 -1.0 -2.7 

3.3 5.1 6.1 

0.0 -5.3 -1.7 

. 2.4 4.8 4.9 

10.5 15.2 10.4 

5.2 -2.3 4.3 

2.4 3.2 0;7 

-2.5 -2.7 -2.2 

4.6 6.1 6.0 

6.0 4.3 4.1 

2.1 2.3 3.2 

-5.4 -5.1 0.1 

4.0 10.4 0.0 

11.3 4.3 2.4 

-3.0 1.6 5.1 

8.3 7.1 6.4 

5.8 5.3 7.2 

4.7 6.4 6.0 

11.1 9.0 10.4 

11.5 15.3 13.0 

12.3 6.1 10.3 

5.3 10.5 8.0 

8.7 10.7 11.9 

2.5 4.2 5.8 

7.5 9.6 4.8 

4.7 10.1 12.1 

11.8 15.4 15.4 

12.6 13.0 7.3 

-22.2 -30.0 -2.0 

... 

4.7 

1.4 

4.3 

-5.3 

15.1 

5.1 

5.4 

-4.5 

1.3 

7.1 

4.3 

-2.2 

4.1 

6.5 

-2.9 

5.0 

4.1 

5.6 

6.1 

7.6 

17.5 

11.7 

7.1 

6.2 

2.6 

3.5 

10.8 

29.0 

9.7 

-4.3 

248. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, NONRESIDENTIAL, AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT) 

6.6 7.6 8.5 

9.9 9.9 9.7 

10.2 9.9 10.0 

10.0 9.7 9.1 

8.8 9.4 9.8 

9.4 9.5 9.5 

9.3 9.4 8.4 

9.2 9.2 9.5 

9.3 9.3 9.4 

9.0 9.4 9.8 

10.2 10.3 10.6 

10.5 10.5 10.6 

9.8 9.4 8.9 

9.1 9.2 9.5 

9.5 9.6 9.3 

9.0 9.0 8.9 

9.0 9.1 9.2 

8.9 9.0 9.0 

9.1 9.3 9.4 

10.0 10.3 10.4 

10.8 10.9 10.9 

10.4 10.4 10.2 

10.4 10.1 10.2 

10.6 10.5 10.6 

10.4 10.4 10.2 

9.9 9.7 9.7 

10.0 9.9 9.9 

10.3 10.4 10.5 

10.6 10.6 10.5 

10.2 9.8 9.4 

9.3 

9.8 

10.3 

9.0 

9.8 

9.3 

8.9 

9.5 

9.1 

10.1 

10.5 

10.5 

9.0 

9.4 

9.3 

9.0 

9.0 

9.2 

9.6 

10.7 

10.7 

10.2 

10.5 

10.6 

9.9 

9.8 

10.2 

10.4 

10.1 

9.4 

250. NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

6.9 7.7 8.9 

11.6 12.1 12.6 

8.3 6.2 6.0 

7.5 7.3 6.2 

3.2 2.7 0.6 

1.3 3.3 5.1 

5.0 3.2 1.2 

0.5 0.2 0.7 

1.2 1.8 2.1 

2.9 1.5 2.4 

2.5 3.9 4.6 

6.8 6.4 6.2 

2.9 2.4 2.8 

0.4 -0.4 1.2 

2.8 3.6 5.0 

6.8 5.6 5.3 

4.8 6.1 5.7 

5.0 6.6 6.0 

9.5 8.3 9.0 

6.8 8.8 8.1 

6.1 5.3 4.2 

5.2 5.2 5.3 

1.7 3.3 3.1 

1.1 0.9 2.7 

3.9 4.4 4.7 

3.9 1.4 1.9 

-4.6 -4.1 -2.3 

1.7 4.3 10.0 

15.0 3.9 2.9 

15.0 24.4 21.4 

6.9 

10.2 

5.6 

3.9 

1.1 

5.7 

0.2 

1.0 

2.9 

2.0 

6.1 

5.0 

1.8 

1.1 

6.2 

5.5 

5.0 

7.5 

8.9 

6.7 

4.6 

4.0 

1.0 

2.3 

2.7 

-0.9 

-2.1 

12.7 

8.1 

21.0 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

6.4 

-0.5 

4.7 

-3.1 

6.8 

10.3 

3.1 

0.4 

-1.5 

6.0 

4.7 

1.3 

-1.5 

5.2 

3.8 

2.2 

6.5 

6.0 

5.8 

9.5 

14.3 

10.1 

7.7 

9.4 

3.8 

6.4 

9.4 

17.9 

10.7 

-14.6 

AVERAGE 

8.0 

9.8 

10.1 

9.4 

9.4 

9.4 

9.0 

9.4 

9.3 

9.6 

10.4 

10.5 

-9.3 

9.3 

9.4 

9.0 

9.1 

9.0 

9.4 

10.4 

10.8 

10.3 

10.3 

10.6 

10.2 

9.8 

10.0 

10.4 

10.4 * 

9.7 

AVERAGE 

... 

7.6 

11.6 

6.5 

6.2 

1.9 

3.8 

2.4 

0.6 

2.0 

2.2 

4.3 

6.1 

2.5 

0.6 

4.4 

5.8 

5.4 

6.3 

8.9 

7.6 

5.1 

4.9 

2.3 

1.8 

3.9 

1.6 

-3.3 

7.1 

7.5 

20.5 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

247. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, CHANGE IN BUSINESS 

INVENTORIES, AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT) 

1947 

3.0 4.3 2.8 2.1 

0.2 -0.4 -1.2 0.6 

1.3 2.0 2.3 1.6 

0.0 -2.1 -0.7 -2.1 

0.9 1.7 1.7 4.9 

3.3 4.6 3.1 1.5 

1.5 -0.7 1.2 1.5 

0.7 0.9 0.2 -1.2 

-0.7 -0.7 -0.6 0.3 

1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 

1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 

0.5 0.5 0.7 -0.5 

-1.2 -1.2 0.0 0.9 

0.8 2.1 0.0 1.3 

2.2 0.8 0.5 -0.6 

-0.6 0.3 1.0 0.9 

1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 

1.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 

0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 

1.7 1.3 1.5 1.1 

1.6 2.0 1.7 2.3 

1.6 0.8 1.3 1.4 

0.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 

1.0 1.2 1.3 0.7 

0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 

0.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 

0.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 

0.9 1.2 1.2 2.1 

0.9 0.9 0.5 0.-> 

-1.5 -2.0 -0.1 -0.3 

249. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, RESIDENTIAL, 

AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT) 

... 

2.9 3.5 3.9 4.0 

4.4 4.4 5.1 5.9 

5.8 6.1 5.8 5.4 

5.2 5.1 5.4 6.1 

6.6 7.2 7.3 6.7 

6.3 5.4 4.9 5.0 

5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 

5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 

5.1 5.4 5.7 5.9 

6.2 6.2 6.0 5.7 

5.5 5.5 5.4 5.1 

4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 

4.7 4.7 4.9 5.2 

5.7 5.7 5.6 5.3 

5.4 4.9 4.7 4.7 

4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9 

4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 

5.0 5.2 5.1 5.3 

5.2 4.9 4.8 4.7 

4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 

4.3 4.0 3.7 3.3 

3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9 

3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 

4.2 4.2 4.0 3.8 

3.7 3.6 3.6 4.0 

4.1 4.6 4.9 5.0 

5.3 5.2 5.2 5.4 

5.4 5.3 5.0 4.6 

4.3 4.1 3.8 3.4 

3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 

251. NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES AS PERCENT OF GNP 

(PERCENT) 

... ... ... ... 

3.5 3.8 4.1 3.1 

5.2 5.3 5.4 4.2 

3.3 2.4 2.3 2.1 

2.9 2.8 2.4 1.5 

1.2 1.0 0.2 0.4 

0.4 1.0 1.5 1.7 

1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 

0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 

0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 

0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 

0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 

1.5 1.5 1.4 1.1 

0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 

0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 

0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 

1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 

0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 

0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 

1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 

1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 

0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 

0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 

0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 

0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 

0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.1 

-0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 

0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 

1.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 

1.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

3.0 

-0.2 

1.8 

-1.2 

2.3 

3.1 

0.9 

0.2 

-0.4 

1.5 

1.1 

0.3 

-0.4 

1.0 

0.7 

0.4 

1.2 

1.0 

0.9 

1.4 

1.9 

1.3 

0.9 

1.0 

0.4 

0.6 

0.8 

1.4 

0.8 

-1.0 

AVERAGE 

... 

3.6 

5.0 

5.8 

5.4 

7.0 

5.4 

5.1 

5.1 

5.5 

6.0 

5.4 

4.8 

4.9 

5.6 

4.9 

4.8 

4.8 

5.2 

4.9 

4.5 

3.8 

3.6 

4.0 

4.0 

3.7 

4.6 

5.3 

5.1 

3.9 

3.4 

AVERAGE 

... 

3.6 

5.0 

2.5 

2.4 

0.7 

1.2 

0.7 

0.2 

0.6 

0.6 

1.0 

1.4 

0.6 

0.1 

0.9 

1.1 

1.0 

1.0 

1.4 

1.2 

0.7 

0.6 

0.3 

0.2 

0.4 

0.2 

-0.3 

0.5 

0.6 

1.3 

154 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q MQ III Q IV Q 

252 . EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

194 5 

194 6 

194 7 

194 8 

195 1 

195 2 

195 4 

195 5 

1956 , 

195 8 

195 9 

196 0 

196 1 

196 2 

196 3 

196 4 

196 6 

1967 . , , 

196 8 

196 9 

197 0 

197 1 

197 4 

197 5 

197 6 

13. 7 14. 9 16. 2 14. 5 

19. 4 20. 6 20. 5 18. 8 

18. 2 16. 6 16. 8 16. 0 

17. 5 17. 1 15. 5 13. 3 

13. 1 13. 3 14. 0 15. 2 

16. 6 19. 0 19. 9 20. 2 

20. 4 18. 4 17. 0 17. 1 

16. 9 17. 1 17. 5 17. 1 

16. 5 18. 5 18. 0 19. 0 

19. 6 19. 3 20. 5 20. 8 

22. 1 23. 5 24. 5 25. 3 

27. 6 27. 3 26. 7 25. 3 

23. 1 23. 3 23. 4 23. 4 

22. 6 22. 9 24. 9 24. 5 

26. 4 27. 4 28. 2 28. 3 

28. 9 27. 9 29. 0 29. 8 

29. 4 31. 2 31. 1 30. 7 

30. 5 32. 7 33. 0 34. 6 

36. 9 36. 4 37. 8 38. 6 

35. 5 41. 1 40. 7 40. 8 

41. 7 42. 0 43. 2 44. 2 

45. 3 44. 9 45. 7 46. 4 

47. 1 50. 1 52. 4 50. 1 

47. 2 56. 0 57. 4 58. 2 

61. 3 62. 9 63. 4 62. 3 

65. 1 66. 6 68. 2 62. 4 

69. 1 69. 2 73. 4 79. 0 

89. 4 96. 7 105. 2 115. 0 

133. 2 142. 2 148. 4 153. 8 

147. 5 142. 9 148. 2 153. 7 

255 . NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 197 2 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

194 6 

194 8 

194 9 

195 0 

195 1 

195 2 

195 3 

195 5 

195 7 

195 9 

196 3 

196 6 

196 9 

197 2 

197 3 

197 4 

197 6 

17. 2 17. 6 17. 7 13. 8 

10. 7 8. 0 7. 7 7. 5 

10. 5 10. 2 9. 0 5. 7 

5 . 2 5. 1 2. 4 3. 4 

4 . 1 6. 8 9. 3 9. 6 

8 . 7 5. 9 3. 1 2. 0 

2 . 1 1. 5 2. 1 2. 3 

2 . 8 4. 3 4. 8 5. 9 

5 . 9 3. 7 4. 8 4. 4 

5 . 0 6. 8 7. 7 9. 7 

10. 1 9. 5 8. 9 6. 9 

4 . 2 3. 5 4. 0 2. 4 

0 . 5 -0. 3 1. 6 1. 6 

3 . 8 4. 6 5. 9 7. 7 

8 . 5 6. 2 6. 0 6. 2 

5 . 0 6. 8 6. 2 5. 2 

5 . 4 7. 5 7. 0 9. 1 

11. 9 10. 3 10. 8 10. 5 

7 . 2 9. 2 8. 7 7. 6 

6 . 1 5. 0 2. 9 3. 3 

4 . 1 4. 0 4. 1 2. 0 

-0. 4 0. 7 0. 2 -2. 0 

-1. 7 -2. 4 -0. 6 -0. 6 

1 . 4 1. 4 2. 5 0. 3 

1 . 6 -1. 4 -0. 2 -2. 4 

-5. 7 -4. 4 -1. 6 -1. 4 

2 . 3 5. 7 9. 3 12. 9 

18. 4 14. 9 14. 9 17. 7 

20. 1 24. 3 22. 8 23. 1 

257 . IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 197 2 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

194 5 

194 7 

194 9 

195 6 

197 6 

13. 6 13. 7 13. 0 13. 9 

15. 3 15. 6 16. 2 15. 6 

15. 4 15. 5 15. 1 15. 4 

15. 9 16. 5 19. 5 19. 0 

19. 4 18. 7 17. 8 18. 0 

19. 1 19. 0 20. 1 21. 7 

21. 4 22. 5 22. 2 21. 3 

20. 4 21. 6 20. 5 20. 7 

21. 8 23. 2 23. 6 24. 2 

25. 1 25. 1 25. 5 24. 4 

26. 1 26. 3 25. 7 25. 9 

26. 2 27. 3 27. 0 28. 5 

29. 5 30. 8 31. 4 30. 7 

30. 8 31. 0 30. 3 29. 0 

29. 0 29. 3 31. 2 31. 9 

32. 9 33. 7 34. 1 34. 7 

34. 1 34. 8 35. 5 35. 5 

35. 5 36. 4 37. 3 38. 4 

37. 0 41. 8 41. 8 43. 3 

45. 2 46. 0 48. 9 49. 1 

49. 8 49. 6 50. 3 53. 1 

56. 6 57. 8 60. 9 60. 3 

56. 2 67. 1 65. 8 65. 1 

65. 8 66. 3 64. 9 65. 8 

65. 9 70. 5 70. 8 66. 8 

76. 4 74. 1 74. 9 78. 4 

82. 1 80. 5 79. 0 77. 7 

79. 4 83. 8 81. 5 78. 2 

70. 2 63. 4 67. 9 70. 8 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

14'.8 

19. 8 1 

16. 9 

15. 9 

13. 9 

18. 9 

18. 2 

17. 1 

18. 0 

20. 0 

23. 9 

26. 7 

23. 3 

23. 7 

27. 6 

28. 9 

30. 6 

32. 7 

37. 4 

39. 5 

42. 8 

45. 6 

49. 9 

54. 7 

62. 5 

65. 6 

72. 7 

101. 6 

144. 4 

148. 1 

AVERAGE 

1 U 6 

16. 6 

8 . 5 

8 . 8 

4 . 0 

7 . 4 

4 . 9 

2 . 0 

4 . 5 

4 . 7 

7 . 3 

8 . 9 

3 . 5 

0 . 9 

5 . 5 

6 . 7 

5 . 8 

7 . 3 

10. 9 

8 . 2 

4 . 3 

3 . 5 

-0. 4 

-1. 3 

1 . 4 

-0. 6 

-3. 3 

7 . 6 

16. 5 

22. 6 

AVERAGE 

14^6 

13. 6 

15. 7 

15. 4 

17. 7 

18. 5 

20. 0 

21. 8 

20. 8 

23. 2 

25. 0 

26. 0 

27. 2 

30. 6 

30. 3 

30. 3 

33. 9 

35. 0 

36. 9 

41. 0 

47. 3 

50. 7 

58. 9 

63. 5 

65. 7 

68. 5 

75. 9 

79. 9 

80. 7 

68. 1 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ II! Q IV Q 

253 . IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

197 2 

6 . 8 7. 2 7. 3 7. 6 

7 . 8 8. 5 7. 9 8. 7 

9 . 9 10. 3 10. 8 10. 4 

10. 0 9. 8 9. 3 9. 5 

9 . 9 10. 6 13. 4 14. 1 

15. 4 15. 7 14. 8 14. 5 

15. 4 15. 2 15. 8 16. 9 

16. 3 17. 0 16. 8 16. 1 

15. 4 16. 8 15. 9 16. 0 

16. 7 17. 8 18. 1 18. 7 

19. 6 19. 6 19. 9 19. 2 

20. 8 20. 9 20. 5 20. 4 

20. 3 20. 9 20. 5 21. 6 

22. 2 23. 4 23. 7 23. 4 

23. 7 23. 9 23. 3 22. 1 

22. 1 22. 3 23. 7 24. 2 

24. 6 25. 2 25. 4 25. 8 

25. 4 26. 2 27. 0 27. 1 

27. 3 28. 1 28. 8 29. 6 

28. 7 32. 4 32. 6 34. 1 

35. 6 36. 7 39. 1 39. 5 

40. 1 39. 7 40. 4 42. 4 

45. 4 46. 8 49. 3 49. 1 

46. 0 55. 1 54. 8 55. 9 

57. 3 58. 5 58. 7 59. 6 

61. 2 65. 3 66. 3 63. 3 

73. 7 73. 3 75. 7 81. 1 

87. 7 92. 4 95. 3 102. 3 

118. 2 138. 3 145. 5 145. 7 

132. 5 118. 5 126. 8 132. 7 

256 . EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 197 2 DOLLARS 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

194 7 

194 8 

195 1 

196 3 

30. 8 31. 4 30. 7 27. 7 

26. 0 23. 6 23. 9 23. 2 

25. 9 25. 7 24. 1 21. 1 

21. 1 21. 6 21. 9 22. 4 

23. 4 25. 5 27. 1 27. 6 

27. 9 25. 0 23. 3 23. 7 

23. 5 24. 0 24. 3 23. 7 

23. 2 25. 9 25. 4 26. 6 

27. 7 26. 9 28. 5 28. 6 

30. 0 31. 9 33. 2 34. 1 

36. 2 35. 8 34. 6 32. 8 

30. 3 30. 8 31. 0 30. 9 

30. 0 30. 5 33. 0 32. 3 

34. 6 35. 6 36. 3 36. 7 

37. 5 35. 5 37. 2 38. 0 

37. 9 40. 4 40. 3 39. 9 

39. 5 42. 2 42. 5 44. 6 

47. 4 46. 6 48. 1 48. 9 

44. 1 51. 0 50. 5 50. 8 

51. 3 51. 0 51. 8 52. 4 

53. 9 53. 6 54. 4 55. 1 

56. 2 58. 4 61. 1 58. 3 

54. 6 64. 6 65. 2 64. 4 

67. 2 67. 7 67. 4 66. 1 

67. 5 69. 1 70. 6 64. 4 

70. 7 69. 7 73. 3 77. 0 

84. 5 86. 2 88. 3 90. 7 

97. 8 98. 7 96. 4 95. 9 

90. 3 87. 7 90. 7 93. 9 

260 . GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES, TOTAL, IN 

CURRENT DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

195 3 

31. 6 26. 2 25. 5 26. 9 

24. 6 25. 4 25. 5 26. 1 

27. 7 30. 7 33. 2 36. 0 

36. 7 38. 4 39. 1 39. 2 

37. 7 36. 9 38. 0 41. 4 

49. 6 56. 7 64. 4 69. 6 

70. 9 75. 5 77. 5 78. 3 

81. 7 82. 6 82. 4 83. 4 

79. 5 75. 4 74. 6 73. 4 

74. 3 74. 1 75. 4 76. 2 

77. 2 79. 3 79. 7 81. 3 

86. 2 86. 6 87. 5 88. 1 

91. 2 94. 2 96. 1 98. 7 

97. 8 98. 0 97. 5 97. 0 

97. 3 99. 3 101. 8 102. 7 

105. 0 106. 8 108. 4 112. 3 

116. 1 116. 8 118. 8 120. 4 

122. 0 121. 3 124. 3 127. 1 

128. 3 130. 0 130. 0 130. 9 

131. 7 135. 7 140. 1 146. 0 

149. 9 155. 2 162. 1 167. 5 

175. 2 177. 5 181. 9 186. 2 

192. 9 198. 1 200. 2 203. 7 

204. 1 206. 7 209. 2 211. 4 

215. 3 216. 5 219. 4 224. 2 

228. 8 231. 1 235. 5 239. 6 

249. 0 251. 1 253. 0 259. 2 

265. 8 265. 1 269. 3 277. 8 

1 288. 0 298. 0 308. 6 318. 5 

325. 6 333. 2 343. 2 353. 8 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

7 . 2 

8 . 2 

10. 4 

9 . 6 

12. 0 

15. 1 

15. 8 

16. 6 

16. 0 

17. 8 

19. 6 

20. 7 

20. 8 

23. 2 

23. 2 

23. 1 

25. 2 

26. 4 

28. 4 

32. 0 

37. 7 

40. 6 

47. 7 

52. 9 

58. 5 

64. 0 

75. 9 

94. 4 

136. 9 

127. 6 

AVERAGE 

26! l 

30. 2 

24. 2 

24. 2 

21. 7 

25. 9 

24. 9 

23. 8 

25. 3 

27. 9 

32. 3 

34. 8 

30. 7 

31. 5 

35. 8 

37. 0 

39. 6 

42. 2 

47. 8 

49. 1 

51. 6 

54. 2 

58. 5 

62. 2 

67. 1 

67. 9 

72. 7 

87. 4 

97. 2 

90. 6 

AVERAGE 

27J5 

25. 5 

32. 0 

38. 4 

38. 5 

60. 1 

75. 6 

82. 5 

75. 8 

75. 0 

79. 4 

87. 1 

95. 0 

97. 6 

100. 3 

108. 2 

118. 0 

123. 7 

129. 8 

138. 4 

158. 7 

180. 2 

198. 7 

207. 9 

218. 9 

233. 7 

253. 1 

269. 5 

1 303. 3 

339. 0 

BCD 1977 155 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

261. GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES, TOTAL, 

IN 1972 DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1959 

74.5 75.9 76.0 75.2 

76.0 82.5 86.5 90.9 

92.5 96.4 98.4 97.5 

98.2 95.8 94.9 101.5 

115.1 127.7 140.0 147.7 

152.4 159.1 163.4 163.1 

168.6 170.1 169.7 171.8 

161.4 154.3 152.6 150.7 

151.0 149.7 151.9 150.9 

150.8 152.9 151.7 153.9 

159.0 159.9 160.6 161.1 

164.2 168.0 170.2 174.9 

171.8 171.3 170.3 169.3 

169.2 172.4 174.4 175.4 

179.3 180.9 182.6 188.3 

191.1 191.8 194.5 194.9 

195.9 195.1 199.2 200.2 

201.7 203.5 202.4 203.2 

202.5 207.2 211.3 217.4 

220.7 224.4 233.4 238.6 

244.3 247.3 250.4 251.3 

255.8 260.2 260.9 260.0 

257.6 258.4 255.7 255.1 

252.2 249.2 249.2 250.3 

249.2 246.8 250.5 251.0 

254.1 253.2 252.0 253.2 

255.2 251.2 251.8 252.0 

255.4 256.1 257.1 256.9 

257.1 259.1 262.4 265.2 

263. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 

1972 DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

36.5 37.1 36.3 34.9 

35.7 41.2 44.5 47.9 

47.9 49.6 49.9 48.1 

47.9 45.1 44.1 50.6 

64.6 76.3 88.4 96.1 

100.4 106.2 111.5 110.0 

113.5 115.9 114.2 115.0 

102.9 95.4 92.2 89.9 

87.9 85.8 87.8 86.3 

85.5 86.6 85.0 86.4 

90.0 90.3 89.9 88.8 

90.2 92.6 93.3 95.4 

92.9 92.4 91.2 90.7 

89.3 90.8 91.5 91.7 

93.0 94.9 95.7 99.0 

102.4 102.4 104.0 103.5 

102.6 101.0 102.6 102.3 

102.2 101.7 99.5 99.0 

97.2 99.3 100.6 104.8 

106.5 108.8 116.5 118.4 

122.6 124.8 127.3 126.3 

127.4 129.8 129.5 126.6 

123.9 123.4 120.6 119.4 

115.2 111.3 108.5 108.0 

105.7 102.0 104.7 103.2 

104.9 103.5 100.6 99.6 

100.7 96.3 95.2 94.3 

95.3 94.7 95.8 95.4 

94.8 95.3 95.6 97.2 

266. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND 

SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS (ANN. RATE, BILLION DOLLARS) 

1956 

8.9 9.4 10.2 11.1 

12.0 12.4 12.9 13.6 

14.0 14.8 15.7 16.3 

16.9 17.7 18.5 18.7 

19.1 19.4 20.0 20.5 

20.9 21.6 22.1 22.4 

22.6 23.3 23.1 23.8 

24.5 24.4 25.1 25.8 

26.7 27.4 28.4 28.7 

29.8 30.3 30.7 31.3 

32.3 33.1 33.9 34.6 

35.9 36.7 37.5 38.5 

39.5 40.6 41.7 42.7 

43.6 43.7 43.8 43.7 

44.9 46.2 47.2 47.9 

49.7 49.9 50.8 52.7 

53.1 53.8 54.7 55.6 

57.1 58.0 59.8 61.2 

62.4 64.2 65.3 66.4 

67.8 69.9 72.5 74.1 

76.2 78.5 80.6 84.0 

86.6 88.2 89.8 92.5 

96.7 99.6 101.6 104.9 

107.0 109.7 111.4 113.6 

117.4 121.0 125.4 129.1 

132.9 136.2 139.0 142.0 

145.9 148.4 152.7 157.0 

161.6 165.0 169.3 173.5 

181.9 189.1 195.1 200.4 

205.3 210.9 218.6 223.4 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

93'.7 

75.4 

84.1 

96.2 

97.7 

132.7 

159.5 

170.0 

154.9 

150.9 

152.4 

160.1 

169.3 

170.7 

172.9 

182.8 1 

193.1 

197.6 

202.7 

209.6 

229.3 

248.3 

259.2 

256.7 

250.2 

249.4 

253.1 

252.5 ! 

256.4 

261.0 

AVERAGE 

59!6 

36.1 

42.4 

48.9

 ! 

47.0 

81.3 

107.0 

114.6 1 

95.2 

86.9 

85.9 I 

89.8 

92.8 

91.8 

90.8 1 

95.6 

103.1 

102.2 

100.6 

100.5 

112.5 

125.3 

128.3 

121.8 

110.7 

103.9 

102.1 

96.6 

95.3 

95.7 

AVERAGE 

9.9 

12.8 

15.3 

18.0 

19.8 

21.8 

23.2 

25.0 

27.8 

30.6 

33.5 

37.1 

41.1 

43.7 

46.5 

50.8 

54.3 

59.0 

[ 64.6 

71.1 

79.8 

i 89.3 

100.7 

110.4 

123.2 

137.5 

151.0 

167.3 

191.6 

214.5 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

262. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 

CURRENT DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1966 

1976 

22.6 16.8 15.3 15.8 

12.6 13.1 12.6 12.6 

13.7 15.9 17.6 19.7 

19.8 20.7 20.7 20.5 

18.6 17.4 18.0 20.9 

28.7 35.1 42.3 47.2 

48.3 52.2 54.3 54.6 

57.2 58.1 57.2 57.6 

52.8 48.0 46.2 44.8 

44.5 43.7 44.7 44.9 

44.9 46.2 45.8 46.7 

50.3 49.9 50.1 49.6 

51.6 53.6 54.4 55.9 

54.3 54.3 53.7 53.3 

52.3 53.1 54.6 54.8 

55.3 56.9 57.7 59.6 

63.0 63.0 64.1 64.8 

64.9 63.3 64.5 65.9 

65.9 65.8 64.7 64.5 

63.9 65.8 67.6 71.8 

73.6 76.8 81.5 83.5 

88.6 89.4 92.1 93.7 

96.2 98.5 98.6 98.7 

97.2 97.1 97.9 97.8 

97.9 95.6 94.0 95.1 

95.9 94.9 96.4 97.6 

103.1 102.8 100.3 102.3 

104.2 100.1 100.1 104.4 

106.1 108.9 113.5 118.1 

120.3 122.4 124.6 130.4 

265. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 

AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT) 

1950 

1951 

11.4 8.2 7.1 7.2 

5.6 5.7 5.4 5.2 

5.5 6.2 6.7 7.4 

7.6 8.1 8.0 8.0 

7.0 6.3 6.1 6.8 

9.0 10.7 12.6 13.9 

14.2 15.3 15.6 15.2 

15.7 15.8 15.6 15.9 

14.6 13.3 12.6 11.9 

11.5 11.1 11.1 10.9 

10.9 11.1 10.8 10.8 

11.5 11.3 11.2 11.2 

11.8 12.2 12.0 12.0 

11.4 11.1 11.0 10.8 

10.3 10.5 10.8 10.9 

10.9 11.0 10.9 11.0 

11.4 11.2 11.3 11.3 

11.2 10.8 10.7 10.8 

10.6 10.4 10.1 10.0 

9.6 9.7 9.7 10.1 

10.0 10.3 10.7 10.8 

11.4 11.4 11.5 11.4 

11.5 11.4 11.2 11.0 

10.6 10.5 10.3 10.3 

10.2 9.8 9.5 9.5 

9.3 9.0 9.0 8.9 

9.1 8.9 8.5 8.4 

8.2 7.8 7.6 7.7 

7.7 7.8 7.9 8.2 

8.3 8.3 8.0 8.2 

267. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND 

SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLION DOLLARS) 

j 1960 

1961 

1963 

38.0 38.8 39.7 40.4 

40.3 41.3 42.0 43.0 

44.6 46.8 48.5 49.4 

50.3 50.7 50.8 50.9 

50.5 51.3 51.6 51.6 

52.0 52.9 52.0 53.0 

55.1 54.2 55.5 56.8 

58.5 58.9 60.4 60.8 

63.1 64.0 64.1 64.6 

65.3 66.3 66.7 67.4 

69.0 69.6 70.6 72.2 

74.0 75.3 76.9 79.5 

78.9 78.9 79.1 78.6 

79.9 81.6 82.9 83.7 

86.4 86.0 86.9 89.3 

88.7 89.3 90.5 91.4 

93.3 94.0 96.5 97.9 

99.5 101.8 103.0 104.3 

105.3 107.9 110.7 112.6 

114.2 115.7 116.9 120.3 

121.7 122.5 123.1 125.0 

128.4 130.4 131.4 133.5 

133.7 135.0 135.1 135.7 

136.9 137.9 140.8 142.4 

143.5 144.8 145.8 147.7 

149.2 149.7 151.4 153.6 

154.5 154.9 156.6 157.7 

160.1 161.4 161.3 161.5 

162.2 163.8 166.9 168.0 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

17 ".6 

12.7 

16.7 

20.4 

18.7 

38.3 

52.4 

57.5 

47.9 

44.5 

45.9 

50.0 

53.9 

53.9 

53.7 

57.4 

63.7 

64.6 

65.2 

67.3 

78.8 

90.9 

98.0 

97.5 

95.6 

96.2 

102.1 

102.2 

111.6 

124.4 

AVERAGE 

5.5 

6.4 

7.9 

6.6 

11.6 

15.1 

15.8 

13.1 

11.2 

10.9 

11.3 

12.0 

11.1 

10.6 

11.0 

11.3 

10.9 

10.3 

9.8 

10.4 

11.4 

11.3 

10.4 

9.8 

9.0 

8.7 

7.8 

7.9 

8.2 

AVERAGE 

34^8 

39.3 

41.8 

47.4 

50.7 

51.3 

52.5 

55.4 

59.7 

64.0 

66.5 

70.3 

76.4 

78.9 

82.0 

87.1 

90.0 

95.4 

102.1 

109.1 

116.8 

123.1 

130.9 

134.9 

139.5 

145.5 

151.0 

155.9 

161.1 

165.2 

156 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

266. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND 

SERVICES AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT) 

1946 

1947 

1948. 

1949 

1950 

1951 

1952, 

1953 

1955,, 

1956 

1957 

1958 

1959 

I960 

1962. , , . 

1963, , 

1964 

1965 

1966 

1968 

1970 

1972,, 

1976 

4.5 4.6 4.7 5.0 

5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 

5.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 

6.5 6.9 7.2 7.3 

7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 

6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 

6.6 6.8 6.7 6.6 

6.7 6.6 6.8 7.1 

7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 

7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 

7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 

8.2 8.3 8.4 8.7 

9.1 9.2 9.2 9.2 

9.2 8.9 9.0 8.9 

8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 

9.8 9.6 9.6 9.7 

9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 

9.8 9.9 10.0 10.0 

10.0 10.2 10.2 10.3 

10.2 10.3 10.4 10.4 

10.4 10.5 10.6 10.9 

11.1 11.2 11.2 11.3 

11.5 11.6 11.5 11.7 

11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 

12.2 12.4 12.6 13.0 

12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 

12.9 12.8 12.9 12.9 

12.8 12.8 12.9 12.8 

13.2 13.5 13.6 13.8 

14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 

282. PROPRIETORS* INCOME WITH INVENTORY VALUATION AND 

CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENTS (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.) 

1945 

1946,, 

1948. , , , 

1950 

1953 

1954 

1956 

1960 

1966 

1967. , 

1972., 

34.1 35.8 38.4 38.0 

37.5 34.0 35.2 36.7 

37.9 41.9 42.2 40.9 

36.8 36.2 35.5 36.0 

36.5 37.0 39.5 40.4 

42.2 42.6 42.9 43.6 

42.0 43.0 44.7 42.1 

42.1 41.4 40.7 41.0 

41.1 40.1 40.9 41.1 

41.8 42.4 42.7 43.1 

42.9 43.1 44.0 44.5 

44.3 44.7 45.7 45.2 

47.1 47.1 47.4 48.0 

47.5 47.8 46.8 46.8 

46.3 47.6 47.1 46.9 

47.6 48.0 48.3 49.1 

49.5 49.7 49.7 49.5 

49.9 50.1 50.5 50.9 

51.0 52.1 52.7 53.2 

54.4 56.6 57.4 58.2 

61.4 60.2 60.1 59.6 

59.7 60.6 61.8 61.7 

62.3 63.0 63.8 64.4 

66.2 66.5 66.2 66.0 

65.7 65.5 64.7 64.7 

67.3 66.8 66.4 70.4 

73.6 76.1 75.8 79.0 

86.1 90.7 94.6 98.3 

91.2 85.0 86.0 85.5 

81.1 86.8 95.5 97.2 

284. RENTAL INCOME OF PERSONS WITH CAPITAL CONSUMPTION 

ADJUSTMENT (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1949 

1952 

1955 

5.2 5.4 5.5 5.7 

5.4 5.1 5.1 5.4 

5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9 

5.9 6.0 6.2 6.4 

6.8 6.9 7.2 7.4 

7.4 7.5 7.8 8.1 

8.2 8.6 9.0 9.4 

9.5 9.8 10.2 10.6 

10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 

11.2 11.2 11.3 11.4 

11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 

11.9 12.1 12.4 12.5 

12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 

12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 

13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 

14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 

14.7 14.8 15.1 15.5 

15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 

15.9 16.0 16.2 16.4 

16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 

17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 

19.0 19.5 19.6 19.4 

19.1 18.8 18.5 18.1 

18.2 18.3 18.0 17.9 

18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 

19.3 20.0 20.5 20.8 

22.1 18.2 23.2 22.7 

22.1 21.2 21.5 21.5 

20.9 20.6 21.0 21.5 

21.9 22.3 22.4 22.9 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

4'.7 

5.4 

5.8 

7.0 1 

6.9 

6.6 

6.7 

6.8 

7.6 

7.6 

7.9 

8.4 

9.2 

9.0 

9.2 

9.7 

9.6 

9.9 

10.2 

10.3 

10.6 

11.2 

11.6 

11.8 

12.6 

13.0 

12.9 

12.8 

13.5 

14.2 

AVERAGE 

36!6 

35.8 

40.7 

36.1 

38.4 

42.8 

42.9 

41.3 

40.8 

42.5 

43.6 

45.0 

47.4 

47.2 

47.0 

48.3 

49.6 

50.3 

52.2 

56.7 

60.3 

61.0 

63.4 

66.2 

65.1 

67.7 

76.1 

92.4 

86.9 

90.2 

AVERAGE 

i'.5 

5.3 

5.7 

6.1 

7.1 

7.7 

8.8 

10.0 

11.0 

11.3 

11.6 

12.2 

12.9 

13.2 

13.8 

14.3 

15.0 

15.7 

16.1 

17.1 

18.2 

19.4 

18.6 

18.1 

18.6 

20.1 

21.5 

21.6 

21.0 

22.4 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

280. COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1951 

1952 

1955 

1958 

1963 

1964 

1965 

1966 

1969 

1970 

1972 

1973 

113.6 115.6 119.5 123.2 

125.9 127.8 129.2 133.7 

137.2 139.0 144.0 145.5 

143.4 141.2 140.5 140.2 

144.2 150.2 158.5 166.4 

174.5 180.1 183.3 186.0 

191.0 192.3 195.8 203.6 

207.4 210.7 210.8 209.3 

207.3 206.9 207.5 211.8 

216.3 222.8 227.7 232.8 

237.1 241.7 244.7 250.5 

254.2 256.0 258.6 257.0 

254.0 253.5 259.6 265.8 

273.1 280.2 280.9 284.1 

292.5 295.4 296.2 295.6 

296.4 300.5 305.4 312.0 

318.4 324.3 327.1 330.5 

335.3 340.1 345.0 351.1 

357.4 364.7 371.9 377.8 

384.5 391.2 399.3 411.2 

423.4 434.5 445.5 453.8 

460.2 465.8 475.4 486.2 

500.3 513.2 527.0 538.7 

550.8 564.6 579.9 590.1 

600.8 606.2 614.1 615.5 

633.0 645.1 655.7 667.3 

691.9 706.9 720.4 741.4 

771.2 790.0 807.2 828.4 

846.3 866.3 888.8 901.8 

904.0 912.9 935.2 963.1 

283. PROPRIETORS' INCOME WITH IVA AND CCADJ AS 

PERCENT OF NATIONAL INCOME (PERCENT) 

1945 

1946 

1948 

1949 

195U 

1955 

1960 

1961. . , , 

1962 

1966 

1967 

1970 

1973 

20.4 20.5 21.0 20.2 

19.7 17.7 18.1 18.2 

18.0 19.2 18.9 18.2 

16.9 17.1 16.7 17.2 

16.8 16.2 16.2 15.8 

15.9 15.7 15.6 15.6 

15.0 15.3 15.6 14.2 

14.0 13.7 13.5 13.9 

13.9 13.6 13.7 13.4 

13.2 13.0 12.9 12.8 

12.6 12.5 12.7 12.6 

12.3 12.3 12.5 12.5 

13.3 13.3 12.9 12.7 

12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 

11.2 11.5 11.4 11.5 

11.6 11.4 11.3 11.2 

11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 

10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 

10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 

9.9 10.1 10.1 9.9 

10.1 9.7 9.6 9.4 

9.3 9.4 9.4 9.2 

9.0 8.9 8.8 8.8 

8.8 8.7 8.5 8.4 

8.3 8.2 8.0 8.0 

8.1 7.8 7.7 8.0 

8.0 8.1 7.9 8.0 

8.4 8.6 8.8 8.9 

8.2 7.6 7.5 7.4 

7.1 7.3 7.7 7.7 

285. RENTAL INCOME OF PERSONS WITH CAPITAL CONSUMPTION 

ADJUSTMENT AS PERCENT OF NATIONAL INCOME (PERCENT) 

1946 

1947., ., 

1952. 

1955.. 

1957 

3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 

2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 

2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 

2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 

3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 

2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 

2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 

3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 

3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 

3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 

3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 

3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 

3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 

3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 

3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 

3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 

3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 

3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 

3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 

2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 

3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 

2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 

2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 

2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 

2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 

2.4 1.9 2.4 2.3 

2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 

1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 

1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

118.1 

129.2 

141.4 

141.3 

154.8 

181.0 

195.7 

209.6 

208.4 

224.9 

243.5 

256.5 

258.2 

279.6 

294.9 

303.6 

325.1 

342.9 

368.0 

396.5 

439.3 

471.9 

519.8 

571.4 

609.2 

650.3 

715.1 

799.2 

875.8 

928.8 

AVERAGE 

20.5 

18.4 

18.6 

17.0 

16.2 

15.7 

15.0 

13.8 

13.6 

13.0 

12.6 

12.4 

13.0 

11.9 

11.4 

11.4 

10.8 

10.4 

10.0 

10.0 

9.7 

9.3 

8.9 

8.6 

8.1 

7.9 

8.0 

8.7 

7.7 

7.4 

AVERAGE 

3.*6 

2.7 

2.6 

2.9 

3.0 

2.8 

3.1 

3.4 

3.7 

3.4 

3.4 

3.4 

3.6 

3.4 

3.3 

3.4 

3.3 

3.2 

3.1 

3.0 

2.9 

3.0 

2.6 

2.4 

2.3 

2.4 

2.2 

2.0 

1.8 

1.8 

BCD 1977 157 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

286 . CORP. PROFITS WITH INVENTORY VALUATION AND CAPITAL 

CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENTS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLION DOLLARS) 

194 5 

195 2 

195 5 

196 2 

196 5 

12. 9 16. 3 17. 4 19. 8 

19. 5 22. 8 22. 6 23. 9 

27. 7 29. 5 28. 9 30. 4 

28. 9 26. 7 27. 9 24. 5 

28. 0 31. 6 36. 0 39. 0 

38. 0 37. 8 38. 0 38. 8 

36. 5 34. 2 33. 6 37. 6 

38. 4 37. 7 36. 5 29. 4 

31. 9 33. 3 34. 9 38. 3 

43. 6 44. 8 44. 7 45. 9 

43. 6 43. 3 42. 0 42. 2 

43. 9 43. 0 42. 4 38. 8 

33. 0 34. 1 38. 3 43. 9 

47. 4 52. 3 46. 8 46. 5 

51. 0 46. 9 45. 6 42. 9 

42. 1 45. 9 47. 7 51. 9 

53. 9 53. 9 54. 7 56. 9 

56. 6 59. 1 60. 8 62. 0 

66. 2 66. 9 68. 3 66. 5 

73. 9 75. 9 77. 9 80. 7 

83. 1 83. 4 81. 6 82. 0 

78. 8 78. 0 78. 7 81. 6 

82. 7 87. 1 86. 9 86. 4 

86. 0 84. 2 81. 0 74. 6 

68. 9 68. 9 69. 4 64. 4 

73. 9 77. 5 77. 5 79. 9 

86. 8 89. 9 92. 6 99. 0 

101. 1 98. 1 97. 8 99. 3 

95. 7 87. 8 81. 7 74. 1 

69. 0 86. 6 105. 3 105. 6 

288 . NET INTEREST 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

194 5 

195 6 

196 2 

196 3 

196 4 

196 5 

196 6 

197 4 

197 6 

1 . 5 1. 6 1. 6 1. 7 

2 . 2 2. 1 2. 1 2. 0 

2 . 2 2. 1 2. 0 2. 0 

2 . 1 2. 2 2. 2 2. 2 

2 . 2 2. 2 2. 3 2. 3 

2 . 5 2. 6 2. 8 2. 8 

2 . 9 3. 0 3. 1 3. 1 

3 . 2 3. 3 3. 3 3. 7 

3 . 9 4. 2 4. 4 4. 6 

4 . 7 4. 8 4. 8 4. 8 

5 . 0 5. 2 5. 4 5. 4 

6 . 0 6. 3 6. 8 6. 9 

7 . 5 7. 8 8. 2 8. 6 

8 . 7 8. 7 8. 8 9. 1 

9 . 5 9. 4 9. 9 10. 2 

10. 5 11. 0 11. 4 12. 1 

12. 1 12. 6 13. 0 13. 4 

13. 8 14. 0 14. 5 15. 0 

15. 3 15. 6 16. 2 16. 5 

17. 6 18. 3 19. 0 19. 2 

20. 5 21. 5 22. 3 23. 2 

23. 4 23. 9 24. 5 25. 3 

25. 9 26. 4 27. 2 27. 7 

29. 0 30. 2 31. 4 32. 6 

34. 4 36. 7 38. 8 40. 3 

41. 6 42. 5 43. 2 43. 9 

44. 7 46. 0 47. 7 49. 6 

50. 4 51. 2 52. 5 55. 3 

59. 4 65. 9 70. 0 73. 2 

73. 7 74. 0 74. 9 75. 8 

290 . GROSS SAVING—PRIVATE SAVING PLUS GOVERNMENT SURPLUS 

OR DEFICIT (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

194 7 

194 9 

195 8 

196 1 

196 9 

197 0 

26. 1 35. 1 37. 8 39. 4 

41. 8 39. 3 39. 3 44. 2 

48. 3 50. 8 49. 0 48. 2 

41. 4 33. 5 34. 6 30. 2 

38. 4 47. 0 51. 2 61. 9 

56. 0 59. 4 54. 8 52. 0 

53. 3 46. 3 47. 1 50. 7 

49. 5 50. 5 49. 8 42. 5 

45. 1 47. 3 49. 3 55. 9 

59. 8 65. 2 67. 7 70. 3 

71. 3 72. 5 74. 1 75. 9 

74. 5 74. 0 74. 3 67. 2 

58. 7 54. 8 59. 5 67. 7 

72. 9 81. 4 73. 0 75. 8 

86. 7 79. 4 77. 4 72. 0 

70. 3 73. 5 78. 1 81. 1 

82. 7 84. 1 84. 3 83. 3 

85. 2 90. 4 90. 2 92. 7 

95. 3 96. 9 101. 7 106. 5 

114. 1 116. 1 116. 2 115. 1 

120. 4 124. 6 121. 9 124. 7 

117. 9 114. 8 120. 6 128. 0 

124. 8 130. 6 132. 0 135. 9 

143. 3 147. 3 152. 4 147. 0 

143. 3 144. 3 146. 0 140. 2 

151. 7 154. 5 154. 9 160. 7 

168. 9 173. 7 178. 3 189. 3 

203. 2 213. 1 219. 1 231. 8 

213. 0 206. 5 200. 0 201. 7 

172. 1 180. 2 204. 6 208. 0 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

16. 6 

22. 2 

29. 1 

26. 9 

33. 7 

38. 1 

35. 4 

35. 5 

34. 6 

44. 6 

42. 9 

42. 1 

37. 5 

48. 2 

46. 6 

46. 9 

54. 9 

59. 6 

67. 0 

77. 1 

82. 5 

79. 3 

85. 8 

81. 4 

67. 9 

77. 2 

92. 1 

99. 1 

84. 8 

91. 6 

AVERAGE 

i!6 

2 . 1 

2 . 1 

2 . 2 

2 . 3 

2 . 7 

3 . 0 

3 . 4 

4 . 3 

4 . 8 

5 . 2 

6 . 5 

8 . 0 

• 8. 8 

9 . 8 

11. 2 

12. 8 

14. 3 

15. 9 

18. 5 

21. 9 

24. 3 

26. 8 

30. 8 

37. 5 

42. 8 

47. 0 

52. 3 

67. 1 

74. 6 

AVERAGE 

3 4 ! 6 

41. 2 

49. 0 

34. 8 

49. 7 

55. 5 

49. 3 

48. 1 

49. 4 

65. 6 

73. 6 

72. 6 

60. 4 

75. 8 

78. 9 

75. 8 

83. 6 

89. 6 

100. 1 

115. 4 

122. 9 

120. 3 

130. 8 

147. 5 

143. 4 

155. 4 

177. 5 

216. 8 

205. 3 

191. 2 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

28 7 . CORPORATE PROFITS WITH IVA AND CCADJ AS PERCENT 

OF NATIONAL INCOME (PERCENT) 

7 . 7 9. 3 9. 5 10. 5 

10. 2 11. 9 11. 6 11. 8 

13. 2 13. 5 13. 0 13. 5 

13. 3 12. 6 13. 1 11. 7 

12. 9 13. 9 14. 8 15. 3 

14. 4 14. 0 13. 8 13. 9 

13. 0 12. 2 11. 7 12. 7 

12. 8 12. 5 12. 1 10. 0 

10. 8 11. 3 11. 7 12. 5 

13. 7 13. 7 13. 5 13. 6 

12. 8 12. 6 12. 1 11. 9 

12. 2 11. 9 11. 6 10. 8 

9 . 3 9. 6 10. 5 11. 6 

12. 2 13. 0 11. 8 11. 6 

12. 4 11. 4 11. 1 10. 5 

10. 3 10. 9 11. 2 11. 8 

12. 0 11. 8 11. 9 12. 2 

12. 0 12. 3 12. 5 12. 5 

13. 1 13. 0 13. 0 12. 5 

13. 5 13. 6 13. 6 13. 8 

13. 7 13. 5 13. 0 12. 9 

12. 3 12. 0 11. 9 12. 1 

12. 0 12. 3 12. 0 11. 7 

11. 5 11. 0 10. 4 9. 5 

8 . 7 8. 7 8. 6 8. 0 

8 . 9 9. 1 9. 0 9. 1 

9 . 4 9. 6 9. 6 10. 0 

9 . 8 9. 3 9. 1 9. 0 

8 . 6 7. 8 7. 1 6. 4 

6 . 0 7. 3 8. 5 8. 4 

289 . NET INTEREST AS PERCENT OF NATIONAL INCOME 

(PERCENT) 

0 . 9 0. 9 0. 9 0. 9 

1 . 2 1. 1 1. 1 1. 0 

1 . 0 1. 0 0. 9 0. 9 

1.0 1. 0 1. 0 1. 1 

1.0 1. 0 0. 9 0. 9 

0 . 9 1. 0 1. 0 1. 0 

1 . 0 1. 1 1. 1 1. 0 

1 . 1 1. 1 1. 1 1. 3 

1 . 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 5 

1 . 5 1. 5 1. 4 1. 4 

1 . 5 1. 5 1. 6 1. 5 

1 . 7 1. 7 1. 9 1. 9 

2 . 1 2. 2 2. 2 2. 3 

2 . 2 2. 2 2. 2 2. 3 

2 . 3 2. 3 2. 4 2. 5 

2 . 6 2. 6 2. 7 2. 8 

2 . 7 2. 8 2. 8 2. 9 

2 . 9 2. 9 3. 0 3. 0 

3 . 0 3. 0 3. 1 3. 1 

3 . 2 3. 3 3. 3 3. 3 

3 . 4 3. 5 3. 6 3. 6 

3 . 6 3. 7 3. 7 3. 8 

3 . 8 3. 7 3. 8 3. 8 

3 . 9 4. 0 4. 0 4. 2 

4 . 4 4. 6 4. 8 5. 0 

5 . 0 5. 0 5. 0 5. 0 

4 . 9 4. 9 5. 0 5. 0 

4 . 9 4. 9 4. 9 5. 0 

5 . 3 5. 9 6. 1 6. 3 

6 . 4 6. 3 6. 1 6. 0 

292 . PERSONAL SAVING 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

16. 3 15. 0 11. 6 10. 8 

8 . 1 2. 2 5. 7 3. 9 

6 . 3 10. 0 13. 7 12. 7 

8 . 7 6. 3 6. 6 5. 5 

15. 4 10. 8 4. 3 12. 5 

8 . 0 17. 6 16. 9 16. 3 

15. 6 14. 4 18. 3 15. 4 

15. 3 17. 6 17. 3 18. 0 

17. 5 14. 5 14. 7 15. 5 

13. 1 14. 1 15. 8 16. 1 

17. 6 19. 4 20. 2 21. 4 

20. 0 21. 5 21. 3 19. 9 

20. 5 19. 9 22. 6 23. 8 

19. 9 21. 1 16. 2 18. 0 

18. 8 16. 5 17. 3 15. 6 

18. 2 19. 0 21. 7 21. 8 

22. 1 21. 6 20. 4 17. 5 

18. 4 18. 5 17. 6 20. 7 

22. 0 27. 0 25. 7 29. 9 

26. 1 28. 3 34. 6 32. 1 

30. 4 31. 9 33. 0 36. 7 

40. 4 38. 7 41. 1 43. 3 

40. 9 43. 8 33. 4 34. 1 

29. 9 32. 0 39. 5 39. 1 

40. 3 51. 5 54. 4 56. 1 

58. 2 60. 2 56. 7 54. 2 

51. 0 43. 7 47. 3 55. 4 

59. 4 69. 1 71. 7 81. 1 

72. 6 67. 8 67. 6 80. 8 

67. 2 104. 5 80. 5 83. 7 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

9 ! 2 

11. 4 

13. 3 

12. 7 

14. 2 

14. 0 

12. 4 

11. 8 

11. 6 

13. 6 

12. 4 

11. 6 

10. 2 

12. 2 

11. 4 

11. 0 

12. 0 

12. 3 

12. 9 

13. 6 

13. 3 

12. 1 

12. 0 

10. 6 

8 . 5 

9 . 0 

9 . 6 

9 . 3 

7 . 5 

7 . 6 

AVERAGE 

0.*9 

1 . 1 

1 . 0 

1 . 0 

1.0 

1 . 0 

1 . 0 

1 . 2 

1 . 4 

1.4 

1 . 5 

1 . 8 

2 . 2 

2 . 2 

2 . 4 

2 . 7 

2 . 8 

3 . 0 

3 . 0 

3 . 3 

3 . 5 

3 . 7 

3 . 8 

4 . 0 

4 . 7 

5 . 0 

5 . 0 

4 . 9 

5 . 9 

6 . 2 

AVERAGE 

13'.4 

4 . 9 

10. 6 

6 . 7 

10. 8 

14. 8 

16. 0 

17. 0 

15. 6 

14. 9 

19. 7 

20. 6 

21. 7 

18. 8 

17. 1 

20. 2 

20. 4 

18. 8 

26. 1 

30. 3 

33. 0 

40. 9 

38. 1 

35. 1 

50. 6 

57. 3 

49. 4 

70. 3 

72. 2 

84. 0 

158 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

I Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

Annual Year 

Quarterly 

I Q III Q IV Q 

Annual 

293. PERSONAL SAVING AS A PERCENT OF DISPOSABLE PERSONAL 

INCOME (PERCENT) 

295. BUSINESS SAVING 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

ly4s. 

Iy4t». 

ly*7. 

i»4b. 

Iy4y. 

lybo. 

lysl. 

1952. 

1953. 

lyb4. 

lybD. 

19bb. 

ly^7. 

ly^tt. 

lyby. 

lyoo. 

lyoi. 

Iyb2. 

lyoi. 

l y D 4 . 

19ob. 

lyob. 

lyo7. 

ly6b. 

lyoy. 

Iy7u. 

ly7i. 

1 y 7 2 . 

1973. 

Iy74. 

ly7b. 

iy7b. 

1U.7 

4.y 

3.5 

4.7 

7.7 

3.7 

6.6 

6.6 

b.U 

b.4 

3.1 

b.y 

4.7 

b.2 

b.7 

o.l 

7.6 

7.2 

4.9 

b.l 

b.U 

o.6 

b.a 

7.7 

o.b 

9.6 

1.3 

b.4 

b.2 

b.7 

7.U 

b.4 

6.3 

4.7 

5.3 

b.6 

6.1 

6.3 

7.2 

7.5 

5.1 

7.5 

8.1 

5.6 

7.8 

7.0 

6.0 

5.3 

4.3 

5.8 

6.5 

2.2 

6.6 

2.9 

5.9 

7.1 

6.3 

7.1 

5.9 

5.7 

7.1 

6.4 

7.3 

5.3 

4.4 

5.9 

4.5 

5.0 

6.7 

5.4 

6.8 

6.7 

6.8 

5.6 

4.9 

b.6 

5.3 

4.7 

6.0 

6.4 

b.5 

7.5 

6.5 

5.6 

7.4 

7.7 

6.2 

7.8 

7.3 

7.8 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

193U. 

lybl. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

Iy56. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

i960. 

ly6l. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

ly73. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

14.7 

17.7 

27.8 

32.0 

29.0 

29.5 

37.8 

39.2 

38.8 

46.5 

48.1 

50.b 

48.1 

57.6 

60.0 

57.3 

66.1 

68.6 

75.4 

62.5 

88.8 

91.8 

93.7 

101.4 

99.0 

109.6 

124.8 

137.4 

143.8 

150.0 

16.1 

22.1 

29.9 

31.4 

30.2 

34.2 

36.3 

38.1 

40.5 

47.7 

48.2 

51.0 

49.2 

60.2 

58.6 

59.7 

66.1 

69.4 

76.0 

15.4 

22.9 

29.7 

32.8 

31.1 

37.5 

36.3 

38.1 

41.3 

48.1 

49. 

51. 

51. 

57. 

58. 

60. 

66. 

70.8 

77.2 

83. 

90. 

91. 

98. 

102. 

100. 

113. 

133. 

136. 

138. 

168. 

85.4 

91.0 

93.7 

99.9 

103.5 

102.9 

116.3 

131.1 

141.0 

133.4 

182.3 

16.9 

24.3 

32.0 

29.9 

32.9 

37.6 

38.7 

36.4 

43.7 

48.7 

49.U 

50.8 

55.6 

58.5 

57.6 

62.2 

69.2 

71.7 

76.4 

87.0 

94.4 

97.5 

100.9 

99.7 

102.7 

121.3 

136.2 

145.6 

141.6 

185.7 

15.8 

21.8 

30.0 

31.5 

30.8 

34.6 

37.1 

38.0 

41.0 

47.5 

48.7 

51.1 

51.3 

58.5 

58.7 

59.9 

67.0 

70.1 

76.3 

84.6 

91.1 

93. 

98. 

101. 

101. 

115. 

131. 

140. 

139. 

171. 

. GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT, TOTAL 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945. 

l94o. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

195U. 

I9bl. 

19b2. 

19D3 . 

1954. 

I9bb. 

1956. 

Iyb7. 

lybb. 

I9b9. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

196b. 

1966. 

1967. 

196b. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

197b. 

1976. 

-5.6 

16.1 

14.1 

0.5 

-6.0 

18.3 

-0.1 

-5.0 

-11.2 

U.2 

5.0 

3.9 

-10.0 

-4.6 

7.9 

-5.1 

-5.5 

-1.7 

-2.1 

5.5 

1.2 

-14.3 

-9.9 

12.U 

3.2 

-16.9 

-6.8 

6.4 

4.7 

-45.0 

4.8 

14.9 

10.7 

-3.9 

6.1 

7.8 

-4.4 

-5.2 

-7.7 

3.4 

4.9 

1.5 

-14.3 

0.0 

4.3 

-5.2 

-3.6 

2.5 

-6.1 

10.9 

10.7 

5.8 

-4.9 

15.8 

0.3 

-7.1 

-5.6 

-6.6 

3.8 

4.5 

1.4 

-15.0 

-1.1 

1.4 

-3.9 

-2.7 

1.8 

-1.1 

-3.8 

-2.1 

11.7 

16.0 

3.4 

-1.3 

-2.9 

-3.4 

0.3 

0.2 

-3.9 

-6.4 

-12.7 

0.9 

8.2 

-19.6 

-16.5 

-3.1 

5.0 

-20.8 

-61.5 

5.4 

14.4 

8.4 

-3.4 

8.0 

6.1 

-3.8 

-6.9 

-7.1 

3.1 

5.2 

0.9 

.6 

,6 

,1 

,3 

,8 

.7 

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 

(INDEX: 1972=100) 

310-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN IMPLICIT PRICE 

DEFLATOR, GNP (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

PERCENT 

CHANGE' 

1945. 

194b. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

I9b8. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

I9b7. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

48.5 

52.3 

53.0 

52.3 

56.9 

57.7 

58.7 

59.5 

60.4 

62.0 

64.5 

65.7 

67.0 

68.4 

68.8 

70.2 

71.3 

72.3 

73.7 

75.7 

78.2 

81.2 

85.0 

89.8 

94.4 

98.8 

102.9 

111.6 

124.6 

49.0 

52.9 

52.5 

52.7 

57.2 

57.6 

58.9 

59.7 

60.8 

62.5 

64.8 

65.8 

67.4 

68.6 

69.2 

70.4 

71.4 

72.5 

74.1 

76.6 

78. 

8 2. 

86. 

9 0. 

9 5. 

99. 

104. 

114. 

125. 

49.9 

53.8 

52.4 

54.3 

57.2 

58.0 

59.1 

59.6 

61.2 

63.2 

65.4 

66.2 

67.7 

68.8 

69.5 

70.6 

71.6 

72.9 

51.4 

53.5 

52.4 

55.2 

57.8 

58.6 

58.8 

59.9 

61.5 

63.8 

66. 

7 4. 

77. 

79. 

8 2. 

8 7. 

91. 

96. 

100. 

106. 

118.0 

128.1 

68.9 

69.6 

71.0 

72.1 

73.1 

74.9 

43.9 

49.7 

53.1 

52.6 

53.6 

57.3 

58.0 

58.9 

59.7 

61.0 

62.9 

65.0 

66.1 

67.5 

68.7 

69.3 

70.6 

71.6 

72.7 

80 

84 

88 

93 

97 

101 

109 

121 

74.3 

76.8 

79.0 

82.6 

86.7 

91.4 

96.0 

100.0 

105.8 

116.4 

127.2 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1956. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

6.9 

-4.0 

-1.2 

13.1 

-0.8 

0.5 

5.0 

2. 

5. 

4. 

6. 

6. 

5. 

5. 

9. 

1 0. 

7.2 

6.9 

-0.5 

12.5 

0.2 

2.5 

1.4 

-0.9 

2.8 

4.6 

3.8 

2.3 

1.5 

1.5 

1.7 

1.0 

1.2 

2.2 

2.7 

2.4 

3.9 

3.7 

6.4 

3.7 

3.4 

3.4 

7.5 

12.4 

7.0 

13.2 

-1.9 

0.1 

6.5 

4.3 

4.6 

-1.8 

2.0 

2.1 

3.3 

0.4 

1.2 

1.5 

0.8 

0.7 

2.5 

2.7 

0.9 

2.0 

3.7 

4.7 

5. 

5. 

5. 

3. 

4. 

9. 

12. 

13.3 

6.9 

-1.0 

2.0 

6.8 

1.3 

1.5 

1.4 

2. 

3. 

2. 

4. 

5. 

5. 

5. 

4. 

5.8 

10.0 

9.3 

'Year-to-year percent changes are computed from annual data. 

BCD 1977 159 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

I Q II Q III Q IV Q 

Annual Year 

Quarterly 

II Q III Q IV Q 

Annual 

311. FIXED WEIGHTED PRICE INDEX, GROSS BUSINESS PRODUCT 

(INDEX: 1972=100) 

311-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN FIXED WEIGHTED 

PRICE INDEX (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

PERCENT 

CHANGE1 

1945 

1946 

1947 

1948 

1949 

1950 

1951 

1952 

1953 

1954 

1955 

1956 

1957 

1958 

1959 

1960 

1961 

1962 

1963 

1964 

1965 

1966 

1967 

1968 

1969 

1970 

1971 

1972 

1973 

1974 

1975 

1976 

52.1 

56.2 

57.0 

55.9 

61.3 

62.1 

63.0 

63.7 

64.3 

65.8 

76.1 

77.0 

78.5 

80.8 

83.4 

87.1 

91.3 

95.4 

99.0 

102.7 

111.6 

124.3 

52.6 

56.9 

56.5 

56.4 

61.7 

62.0 

63.0 

63.9 

64.5 

66.4 

68.8 

71.7 

72.6 

73.6 

74.3 

75.0 

75.6 

76.2 

77.4 

79.3 

81.2 

84.4 

88.2 

92.3 

96.4 

99.5 

104.6 

114.5 

125.9 

53.8 

57.9 

56.4 

58.0 

61.5 

62.4 

63.3 

63.6 

65.0 

67.2 

69.4 

71.8 

72.9 

73.9 

74.5 

75.2 

75.8 

76.4 

77.7 

79.9 

81.8 

85.1 

89.4 

93.0 

97.3 

100.2 

106.6 

118.1 

128.2 

PLOYEES 

55.2 

57.5 

56.3 

59.2 

62.2 

63.0 

62.9 

63.9 

65.3 

67.7 

69.4 

72.0 

73.2 

74.2 

74.5 

75.4 

76.0 

76.7 

77.8 

80.5 

82.6 

86.1 

90.4 

94.3 

98.0 

101.3 

108.7 

121.7 

130.1 

, NONFARM 

53.4 

57.1 

56.6 

57.4 

61.7 

62.4 

63.0 

63.8 

64.8 

66.8 

69.0 

71.7 

72.8 

73.8 

74.4 

75.1 

75.7 

76.3 

77.5 

79.5 

81.6 

84.8 

88.8 

92.7 

96.8 

100.0 

105.7 

116.4 

127.2 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

7.3 

-3.2 

-2.4 

15.3 

-0.9 

-0.4 

5.6 

2.6 

3.2 

4.7 

1.2 

1.8 

0.3 

0.4 

1.8 

0.7 

0.3 

1.8 

3.6 

1.6 

4.1 

4.6 

4.2 

4.6 

4.2 

5.8 

10.8 

9.1 

4.0 

4.7 

-3.5 

3.4 

2.4 

-0.3 

0.5 

1.1 

0.6 

1.7 

2.2 

0.4 

1.0 

0.2 

0.6 

2.0 

3.8 

1.9 

4.6 

5.5 

4.5 

4.6 

2.3 

7.6 

11.1 

5.3 

9.1 

7.3 

-1.2 

11.5 

-0.9 

2.6 

1.9 

-1.6 

3.0 

5.0 

3.8 

1.1 

2.0 

1.6 

1.0 

1.0 

1.0 

1.4 

1.6 

3.1 

3.5 

3.6 

5.4 

2.8 

3.7 

3.0 

8.0 

13.2 

7.4 

11.6 

-2.7 

-0.5 

8.5 

4.4 

3.6 

-2.6 

1.9 

2.3 

3.3 

0.1 

0.6 

1.5 

1.4 

-0.1 

0.9 

1.2 

1.2 

0. 

3. 

3. 

4. 

4. 

5. 

2. 

6.9 

-1.0 

1.5 

7.5 

1.1 

1.0 

1.2 

1.6 

3.1 

3.4 

1.3 

1.4 

1.4 

0.9 

1.0 

1.5 

2.6 

2.6 

3.9 

4.7 

4.5 

4.4 

3.3 

5.7 

10.2 

9.3 

34 5. AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION, ALL EMPLOYEES 

BUSINESS SECTOR (INDEX: 1967=100) 

345-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN AVERAGE HOURLY 

COMPENSATION, NONFARM BUSINESS (ANN. RATE, PERCENT) 

PERCENT 

CHANGE1 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

36. 2 

39. 6 

41. 9 

43. 3 

47. 0 

50. 1 

52. 9 

55. 3 

57. 0 

60. 0 

64. 1 

66. 9 

70. 0 

73. 1 

75. 6 

78. 9 

81. 7 

85. 0 

88. 1 

92. 4 

97. 9 

104. 5 

111. 7 

119. 1 

126. 9 

134. 6 

144. 1 

155. 2 

173. 0 

57. 6 

61. 2 

64. 9 

67. 5 

70. 6 

73. 7 

76. 5 

79. 4 

81. 9 

85. 9 

88. 8 

94. 0 

99. 3 

106. 2 

113. 1 

120. 6 

128. 9 

136. 0 

146. 1 

159. 1 

175. 9 

37. 9 

41. 3 

42. 1 

44. 7 

48. 8 

51. 1 

54. 2 

55. 9 

58. 3 

62. 1 

65. 6 

68. 3 

71. 1 

74. 1 

76. 8 

79. 8 

82. 7 

87. 0 

89. 7 

95. 3 

100. 5 

107. 9 

114. 9 

123. 1 

131. 2 

137. 7 

148. 8 

163. 5 

178. 9 

38. 8 

41. 8 

42. 2 

45. 9 

49. 5 

52. 3 

54. 8 

56. 5 

58. 9 

63. 0 

66. 4 

69. 0 

71. 8 

74. 8 

77. 6 

80. 5 

83. 8 

87. 7 

90. 9 

96. 6 

101. 7 

109. 8 

116. 2 

124. 4 

131. 7 

140. 0 

151. 7 

168. 2 

182. 2 

37. 5 

40. 7 

42. 0 

44. 5 

48. 3 

51. 0 

53. 9 

55. 8 

57. 9 

61. 5 

65. 3 

67. 9 

70. 8 

73. 9 

76. 6 

79. 7 

82. 5 

86. 4 

89. 3 

94. 6 

100. 0 

107. 3 

114. 2 

121. 8 

129. 9 

137. 3 

148. 0 

161. 8 

177. 5 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

8.4 

0.3 

10.9 

9.3 

5.4 

4.6 

3.7 

3.7 

7.6 

7.1 

2.9 

6.0 

7.6 

4.3 

7.1 

5.9 

8.1 

6.3 

0.0 

5.3 

9.1 

4.2 

6.0 

1.9 

4.3 

8.1 

5.6 

1.8 

6.6 

5.5 

11.7 

6.8 

10.7 

8.4 

11.3 

11.3 

2.0 

8.1 

6.5 

3.8 

4.0 

3.0 

4.8 

5.8 

4.6 

5.0 

2.7 

2.3 

1.7 

2.0 

3.6 

5.3 

9.9 

5.3 

1.3 

11.2 

5.9 

9.9 

4.0 

3.8 

4.7 

6.1 

5.2 

3.7 

4.0 

3.8 

3.9 

3.8 

5.8 

3.0 

3.1 

7.1 

5.8 

6.4 

5.4 

5.1 

6.4 

4.4 

5.6 

10.5 

6.8 

3.4 

5.9 

5.7 

7.3 

6.5 

6.6 

6.6 

5.7 

7.8 

9.3 

9.7 

345-C. 4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES IN AVERAGE HOURLY 

COMPENSATION, NONFARM BUSINESS2 (ANN. RATE, PERCENT) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

7.8 

0.9 

8.8 

7.7 

5.8 

4.6 

3.1 

9.4 

5.7 

3.4 

8.5 

6.7 

5.6 

4.4 

3.1 

8.9 

4.1 

4.8 

9.4 

5.5 

6.0 

3.4 

3.7 

6.6 

2.8 

8.2 

7.2 

5.6 

4.6 

3.2 

3.9 

3.6 

5.3 

3.0 

6.2 

5.5 

7.4 

6.5 

7.1 

6.6 

5.0 

8.1 

9.9 

9.4 

6 

5 

3 

4 

4 

3 

3.8 

4.1 

4.6 

3.7 

6.2 

5.3 

8.0 

5.7 

7.1 

5.9 

6.3 

8.4 

10.9 

8.3 

4.9 

5.9 

6.0 

6.8 

6.7 

6.5 

6.0 

7.1 

7.7 

11.5 

7.7 

5.9 

5.6 

.0 

.6 

.6 

6. 

6. 

6. 

5.5 

7.4 

8.9 

10.5 

7.9 

4.4 

6.0 

6.0 

7.2 

6.4 

6.9 

6.0 

6.4 

8.3 

10.7 

8.3 

1 Year-to-year percent changes are computed from annual data. 

'Percent changes are centered on the third quarter of the span. Annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 

160 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

I Q 11 a III Q IV Q 

Annual Year 

Quarterly 

I Q II Q III Q IV Q 

Annual 

346. REAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION, ALL EMPLOYEES, 

NONFARM BUSINESS SECTOR (INDEX: 1967=100) 

346-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN REAL AVERAGE HOURLY 

COMPENSATION, NONFARM BUSINESS (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

PERCENT 

CHANGE1 

ly45. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

55.7 

56.0 

58.4 

61.3 

61.0 

63.3 

66.4 

68.5 

71.0 

74.6 

77.0 

77.7 

80.6 

83.0 

84.6 

87.5 

89.5 

91.7 

94.0 

96.2 

99.0 

102.0 

104.0 

104.5 

106.1 

108.7 

111.9 

109.6 

110.0 

55.9 

55.9 

58.4 

61.6 

61.8 

63.8 

67.1 

68.9 

71.8 

75.6 

77.3 

77.9 

81.2 

83.2 

85.6 

87.7 

89.6 

92.6 

56.3 

56.5 

59.2 

61.7 

62.8 

64.0 

67.5 

69.5 

72.6 

75.9 

7 7, 

94.1 

97.0 

99.9 

102.6 

103.7 

104.3 

106.7 

109.1 

111.1 

109.4 

110.2 

78.9 

81.3 

83.6 

85.6 

87.9 

89.8 

93.6 

94.8 

97.5 

100.1 

103.0 

103.9 

105.3 

107.6 

109.5 

110.8 

109.2 

109.8 

56.0 

57.8 

59.6 

62.1 

62.7 

65.5 

68.0 

70.4 

73.3 

76.3 

78.1 

79.5 

81.6 

83.9 

86.3 

88.5 

90.8 

93.9 

95.6 

98.0 

100.3 

103.5 

103.5 

104.9 

107.4 

110.3 

110.4 

56.0 

56.5 

58.9 

61.7 

62.1 

64.1 

67.3 

69.3 

72.2 

75.6 

77.5 

78.4 

81.2 

83.4 

85.4 

87.9 

89.9 

93.0 

94.5 

97.3 

100.0 

102.9 

104.0 

104.7 

107.1 

109.6 

111.2 

109.5 

110.1 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

1.9 

-0.4 

0.3 

2.0 

4.9 

3.0 

4.6 

2.4 

4.5 

5.3 

1.2 

1.0 

2.9 

0.8 

5.0 

1.0 

0.4 

3.9 

0.5 

3.3 

3.6 

2.4 

-1.1 

-0.7 

2.1 

2.3 

4.2 

5.5 

0.6 

6.9 

1.3 

2.1 

4.0 

4.7 

1.5 

1.0 

5.2 

1.1 

4.4 

3.2 

3.3 

1.5 

1.2 

3.4 

2.6 

4.6 

1.1 

3.4 

2.0 

0.7 

1.9 

-1.4 

-1.4 

-0.8 

3.0 

1.7 

2.9 

2.8 

2.9 

1.1 

0.7 

2.3 

2.3 

1.5 

-1.5 

0. 5 

346-C. 4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES IN REAL AVERAGE HOURLY 

COMPENSATION, NONFARM BUSINESS2 (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

348. NEGOTIATED WAGE AND BENEFIT DECISIONS, FIRST YEAR 

AVERAGE (MEAN) CHANGES © (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

0.4 

4.8 

4.2 

1.8 

1.9 

5.4 

3.1 

4.4 

4.5 

2.1 

1.8 

3.1 

2.9 

2.4 

2.7 

2.2 

4.2 

1.3 

2.8 

2.7 

1.8 

1.2 

-1.4 

0.6 

3.2 

3.1 

4.3 

1.0 

4.4 

3.8 

3.6 

4.0 

4.2 

2.3 

1.9 

2.6 

2.8 

3.2 

3.7 

5.1 

3.3 

0.8 

3.7 

3.0 

1. 

3. 

2. 

1.9 

2.5 

2.4 

3.2 

0.0 

1.4 

2.4 

2.8 

0.0 

-1.1 

0.9 

5 

3 

2.5 

2.5 

2.4 

2.9 

3.1 

1.9 

0.4 

1.6 

2.4 

3.0 

-2.1 

0.4 

1.2 

5.3 

2.2 

0.8 

4.2 

2.5 

2.9 

2.5 

2.1 

3.4 

1.6 

3.1 

3.0 

2.8 

1.1 

0.5 

2.3 

2.3 

1.8 

-1.5 

0.8 

1.8 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

349. NEGOTIATED WAGE AND BENEFIT DECISIONS, AVERAGE (MEAN) 

CHANGES OVER LIFE OF CONTRACT <§) (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

358. INDEX OF OUTPUT PER HOUR, ALL PERSONS, 

BUSINESS SECTOR (1967=100) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

58.0 

59.4 

61.0 

64.2 

65.8 

67.8 

68.7 

69.3 

72.5 

73.1 

74.8 

75.3 

79.4 

80.9 

80.8 

85.5 

88.2 

91.4 

58.7 

60.5 

61.4 

65.2 

65.8 

68.2 

69.2 

69.6 

73.4 

73.8 

75.1 

59.1 

61.2 

62.0 

66.5 

67.9 

73. 4 

74. 3 

75. 8 

94. 

9 7. 

98. 

102. 

103. 

102. 

105. 

107.8 

112.3 

109.3 

106.0 

95.1 

97.7 

99.7 

103.0 

103.2 

102.8 

105.4 

108.6 

111.1 

107.5 

109.1 

96.0 

98.0 

100.3 

103.7 

102.7 

104.5 

107.1 

109.9 

110.9 

106.7 

111.6 

90.3 

93.3 

97.6 

98.6 

100.9 

103.6 

102.1 

103.6 

106.8 

111.2 

110.5 

105.8 

111.1 

73.2 

73.6 

75.3 

76.8 

79.6 

80.3 

82.6 

86.2 

89.3 

92.6 

95.7 

98.1 

100.0 

103.2 

103.1 

103.2 

106.3 

109.5 

111.4 

107.5 

109.4 

'Year-to-year percent changes are computed from annual data. 

'Percent changes are centered on the third quarter of the span. Annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 

BCD 1977 161 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

370. OUTPUT PER HOUR, ALL PERSONS, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR 

1945 

194b 

l94b 

1951 

1952 

1954 

1955 

195b 

1957 

1959 

1961 

1962 

1963 

1965 

1966 

1967 

196b 

1969 

1970 

1971 

1976 

370-C. 

PRIVAT 

1945 

1946 

1947 

1949 

1951 

1952 

1953 

1954 

1956 

195b 

1961 

1962 

1963 

1965 

1966 

1967 

196b 

1969 

197U 

1971 

1974 

50 

1945 

1947 

194b 

1949 

1950 

1952 

1953 

1954 

1955 

1956 

1957 

1958 

1961 

1967 

1970 

1971 

1972 

1974 

(INDEX: 1967=100) 

52.1 52.4 52.3 

53.4 54.8 54.1 

54.6 54.5 56.0 

58.4 59.3 60.3 

60.3 60.8 62.4 

62.2 63.1 63.3 

64.4 65.4 65.6 

65.1 65.7 67.-0 

68.7 69.6 69.4 

69.7 69.9 70.0 

71.9 72.2 72.2 

73.0 73.6 74.5 

76.8 77.0 76.5 

79.0 78.0 77.6 

78.4 80.6 81.1 

83.1 83.6 84.8 

b6.5 87.3 88.4 

90.4 90.8 91.8 

93.5 93.8 95.3 

97.4 97.3 97.7 

98.2 100.0 100.3 

102.2 103.0 104.0 

104.1 103.7 103.4 

103.4 103.9 105.6 

107.1 106.8 108.5 

109.5 110.4 110.8 

114.1 112.8 112.3 

110.5 109.3 108.7 

108.1 111.2 113.4 

4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES IN OUTPUT 

52.4 

55.1 

56.1 

60.8 

62.4 

63.6 

65.8 

68.0 

69.3 

71.3 

72.8 

7 5.9 

77.1 

77.7 

82.7 

85.9 

88.9 

92.3 

96.6 

98.4 

100.9 

103.9 

103.1 

105.1 

105.3 

112.5 

112.4 

107.7 

112.8 

PER HOUR, 

J BUSINESS SECTOR2 (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

2.4 

3.5 5.2 2.2 

3.4 1.8 7.1 

7.8 8.4 3.2 

3.4 2.6 3.1 

1.5 1.8 3.6 

3.7 3.5 1.0 

2.0 3.4 5.6 

3.6 2.0 1.5 

0.9 2.8 3.0 

3.1 2.1 1.5 

3.3 4.2 5.3 

2.6 1.6 2.9 

1.5 0.8 -0.8 

4.5 6.4 6.0 

4.6 3.9 4.1 

4.2 3.4 4.5 

3.8 3.8 3.4 

3.8 4.7 4.2 

2.6 1.9 0.9 

2.6 2.6 4.0 

3.6 2.9 1.9 

-0.5 -0.8 -0.7 

2.1 1.9 3.6 

2.7 3.1 2.2 

2.2 3.9 4.2 

1.3 -0.1 -3.1 

-3.2 -4.2 -2.2 

4.3 4.7 6.1 

1. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS, NIPA 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

34.9 38.2 41.1 

43.5 42.8 42.1 

44.6 43.4 42.5 

40.6 38.6 38.3 

42.6 46.8 53.1 

65.9 62.9 62.2 

66.3 66.4 66.9 

71.8 71.9 70.8 

62.9 62.9 63.5 

69.7 71.6 73.6 

76.0 77.6 77.6 

82.7 82.5 82.6 

76.0 75.9 79.5 

87.6 91.6 89.8 

97.9 96.5 95.7 

94.5 96.6 98.9 

103.4 105.1 107.5 

111.6 114.1 115.3 

115.4 112.1 115.3 

122.8 124.4 123.1 

136.5 141.3 143.7 

147.1 147.6 151.5 

164.1 169.1 180.3 

195.6 199.2 196.0 

193.2 194.7 190.8 

194.9 197.1 198.8 

222.6 224.3 227.7 

252.0 255.7 259.3 

276.7 285.8 297.5 

287.2 254.4 297.7 

4.4 

-0.4 

8.7 

2.5 

3.8 

3.7 

0.5 

5.9 

0.5 

3.3 

1.8 

4.7 

1.3 

3.3 

3.7 

4.4 

4.0 

3.2 

3.8 

2.7 

3.0 

0.7 

0.2 

2.8 

3.4 

2.2 

-3.1 

1.7 

3.9 

42.1 

44.5 

42.3 

37.4 

57.7 

66.2 

69.9 

65.6 

65.7 

75.5 

80.5 

79.6 

83.0 

90.3 

94.5 

102.2 

108.8 

116.6 

117.0 

127.1 

145.9 

155.8 

185.4 

197.1 

189.5 

203.8 

235.3 

266.2 

292.9 

306.7 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

52.3 

54.4 

55.3 

59.7 

61.5 

63.0 

65.3 

66.5 

69.2 

70.2 

72.3 

74.2 

76.8 

78.1 

80.6 

84.4 

87.7 

91.3 

94.7 

97.8 

100.0 

103.3 

103.7 

104.5 

107.8 

110.9 

113.1 

109.2 

111.5 

AVERAGE 

2.6 

5.2 

5.5 

3.2 

2.6 

2.2 

4.2 

1.9 

2.5 

2.1 

4.4 

.2.1 

1.2 

5.2 

4.2 

4.0 

3.6 

4.1 

2.0 

3.0 

2.3 

-0.4 

2.6 

2.8 

3.1 

-1.2 

-2.0 

4.8 » 

AVERAGE 

39.1 

43.2 

43.2 

38.7 

50.0 

64.3 

67.3 

70.0 

63.7 

72.6 

78.0 

81.9 

78.7 

89.8 

96.1 

98.1 

106.2 

114.4 

114.9 

124.3 

141.8 

150.5 1 

174.7 

197.0 

192.1 

198.6 

227.5 

258.3 

288.2 

286.5 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IVQ 

37U-C. CHANGE FKOil PRECEDING PERIOD IN OUTPUT PER HOUR, 

PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 

1945 

1946 

1947 

1948 

1950 

1951 

1952 

1954 

1955 

195b 

1957 

195a 

1961 

19b2 

I9b3 

1964 

19b5 

19bb 

1 1967 

1968 

1969 

1 1970 

1971 

1973 

1974 

1975 

197b 

2.4 -1.2 0.6 

8.2 10.6 -4.6 7.5 

-3.6 -0.2 10.7 1.2 

17.6 5.8 7.1 3.5 

-3.3 3.0 11.0 0.4 

-1.6 6.0 1.3 1.8 

5.6 6.2 1.5 0.8 

-4.2 3.9 8.0 6.1 

4.4 5.1 -1.3 -0.1 

2.3 1.0 0.3 7.6 

3.3 2.1 -0.4 3.6 

0.9 3.3 5.3 7.5 

5.0 1.2 -2.9 3.3 

10.3 -4.9 -2.1 0.7 

3.3 12.0 2.3 8.4 

1.7 2.7 5.9 5.2 

2.6 3.9 5.1 2.2 

6.9 2.0 4.2 2.0 

5.3 1.5 6.5 5.6 

3.4 -0.3 1.8 2.6 

-0.6 7.2 1.4 2.4 

5.2 3.1 3.8 -0.3 

0.9 -1.6 -1.0 -1.5 

1.3 1.8 6.9 -2.0 

8.2 -1.3 6.5 -0.7 

4.6 3.2 1.7 6.2 

5.7 -4.6 -1.8 0.4 

-6.4 -4.3 -2.3 -3.5 

1.4 12.1 8.1 -2.1 

500. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT, NIPA 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945 

194b 

1947 

1949 

lSbl 

1952 

1953 

1954 

1955 

1957 

1958 

1959 

1960 

1961 

1963 

1964 

1965 

1966 

I9u7 

1968 

1969 

1970 

1971 

1972 

1974 

1976 

-7.7 2.7 9.0 10.2 

14.8 13.6 10.0 15.2 

13.6 10.5 5.8 3.3 

0.6 -3.1 -4.1 -4.1 

-4.7 7.8 16.6 17.3 

18.3 8.4 1.0 -1.7 

0.2 -3.7 -7.5 -3.7 

-4.5 -6.2 -5.8 -11.8 

-10.6 -6.7 -5.1 -1.9 

1.8 4.9 4.8 6.5 

6.6 5.8 5.2 6.3 

4.6 2.8 2.8 -1.3 

-7.5 -11.9 -12.1 -10.0 

-2.9 1.6 -1.8 -1.5 

7.7 4.2 1.4 -1.1 

-4.3 -5.1 -3.9 -2.2 

-5.6 -4.1 -3.2 -4.1 

-1.9 1.9 1.2 -0.2 

-3.0 -6.7 -2.4 -1.0 

4.6 3.9 -3.0 -3.4 

0.6 1.3 -3.2 -5.9 

-12.8 -13.2 -13.6 -13.0 

-9.7 -12.0 -2.3 0.7 

11.2 12.0 6.7 4.2 

-1.1 -12.8 -14.6 -20.1 

-18.5 -23.8 -23.4 -22.2 

-13.4 -20.0 -10.8 -24.9 

-9.7 -6.6 -5.2 -5.3 

-4.1 -7.6 -9.0 -25.3 

-49.8 -99.9 -66.0 -69.4 

502. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, NIPA 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945 

1946 

1947 

1949 

1950 

1951 

1952 

1953 

1954 

19D 5 

195b 

1960 

1963 

1964 , , 

1966 

1967 

1968 

1969 

1970 

1971 

1972 

1974 

1975 

1976 

42.7 35.5 32.1 32.0 

28.7 29.2 32.2 29.3 

31.0 33.0 36.7 39.0 

40.0 41.7 42.4 41.4 

47.2 39.0 36.5 40.4 

47.6 54.5 61.2 67.9 

66.1 70.1 74.4 73.6 

76.3 78.2 76.6 77.4 

73.5 69.6 68.7 67.6 

67.9 66.7 68.9 69.0 

69.4 71.8 72.4 74.2 

78.1 79.8 79.8 81.0 

83.5 87.8 91.6 93.0 

90.5 89.9 91.5 91.9 

90.2 92.3 94.2 95.7 

98.7 101.7 102.8 104.4 

109.0 109.2 110.7 112.8 

113.5 112.2 114.1 116.8 

118.3 118.8 117.6 118.0 

118.2 120.4 126.1 130.5 

135.8 140.0 146.9 151.8 

159.9 160.9 165.1 168.9 

173.8 181.0 182.6 184.8 

184.3 187.2 189.4 192.9 

194.3 207.5 205.3 209.6 

213.5 220.9 222.2 225.9 

235.9 244.2 238.6 260.2 

261.7 262.2 264.6 271.5 

280.7 293.4 306.5 318.2 

337.0 354.3 363.7 376.0 

Annual 

PLKCOIMT 

CHANGE' 

3.9 

1.7 

8.0 

2.9 

2.5 • 

3.7 

1.8 

4.1 

1.4 

3.0 

2.7 

3.6 

l.b 

3.3 

4.6 

4.0 

4.1 

3.7 

3.2 

2.3 

3.3 

0.3 

0.7 

3.2 

2.9 

1.9 

-3.4 

2.1 

AVERAGE 

3.5 

13.4 

8.3 

-2.6 

9.2 

6.5 

-3.7 

-7.1 

-6.0 

4.4 

6.1 

2.3 

-10.3 

-1.1 

3.0 

-3.9 

-4.2 

0.3 

-3.3 

0.5 

-1.8 

-13.2 

-5.8 

8.5 

-12.1 

-22.0 

-17.3 

-6.7 

-11.5 

-71.2 

AVERAGE 

35.6 

29.8 

34.9 

41.3 

40.8 

57.8 

71.1 

77.1 

69.8 

68.1 

71.9 

79.6 

88.9 

91.0 

93.1 

101.9 

110.4 

114.2 

118.2 

123.8 

143.6 

163.7 

180.6 

188.4 

204.2 

220.6 

244.7 

265.0 

299.7 

357.8 

'Year-to-year percent changes are computed from annual data. 

2 Percent changes are centered on the third quarter of_the jpan. Annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 

162 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

I Q II Q II Q IV Q 

Annual Year 

Quarterly 

I Q II Q III Q IV Q 

51U. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT, 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS, NIPA 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945. 

194b. 

1947. 

1946. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

i960. 

19fal. 

19b2. 

1963. 

1964. 

19b5. 

1906. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

197U. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

2.2 

1.3 

0.4 

-0.1 

-1.4 

0.0 

-0.3 

-0.4 

-0.6 

-1.7 

0.2 

-0.8 

0.1 

0. 

- 1 . 

16.1 

8.7 

4.7 

2.1 

1.3 

0.2 

-0.8 

-1.7 

-0.6 

-0.6 

1.0 

-1.0 

-1.6 

-0.9 

-1.3 

-2.4 

-1.6 

0.2 

-0.1 

0.5 

0.5 

0.6 

0.4 

0.9 

-2.5 

0.4 

1.0 

3.9 

3.2 

16.3 

13.9 

7.8 

6.9 

1.8 

0.8 

0.0 

-0.8 

-0.8 

-0.8 

0.4 

0.2 

-1.4 

1.0 

0.1 

0.0 

0.1 

1945.. 

1 J 4 6 . . 

1947. . 

194b. . 

194a. . 

195U.. 

19D1.. 

1-JD2.. 

1*53.. 

1954.. 

10. 

11. 

-0.6 

-0.5 

0.3 

0.2 

4.0 

0.5 

5.6 

21.8 

10.3 

4.5 

7.9 

19 55. 

19 5b. 

19 57. 

l95b. 

19 59. 

19OU . 

l9ol. 

19 o 2 . 

1963. 

19 64. 

1 y o 5 . 

I960. 

1966. 

19U9 . 

1970. 

12. 2 

14. 6 

lu. 9 

16. 8 

2o . 5 

23. 1 

2 d . 4 

30. 5 

3 3. 7 

37. 7 

40. 1 

90. 1 

102. 4 

114. 3 

12. 0 

15. 2 

17. 5 

19. 0 

21. 0 

23. 1 

36. 1 

41. 3 

45. 3 

4 9. 6 

53. 3 

58.U 

62. 3 

6 8. 8 

74. 2 

63. 6 

91. 0 

10 6. 1 

117. 6 

133. 3 

151. 1 

177. 2 

19 2. 0 

2U8. 0 

230. 4 

1 5 . 

1 3 . 

1 9. 

2 1 . 

3 5. 

3 8. 

5 4 . 

5 8 . 

75.9 

86.3 

9 4.7 

108.8 

121.4 

13 7.0 

154.4 

175.5 

19 4.0 

13.9 

16.3 

18.4 

2o.o 

22.0 

24.1 

26.4 

2 7.9 

3b .2 

3 9.3 

44 .4 

4 7.8 

51.1 

55.7 

6 0.0 

65.6 

71.6 

77.7 

8o.2 

9h.b 

111.6 

125.4 

139.5 

159.4 

191.5 

19 7. 

2 16 . b 

24 5.0 

512. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, NIPA 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

5b4. FEDERAL GOVERNrt 

FOR NATIONAL DEFENSE 

NT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 

(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945, 

1946, 

1947, 

1948, 

1949, 

1950, 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956, 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968, 

1969, 

1970, 

1971, 

1972, 

1973, 

1974, 

1975, 

1976, 

10. 0 

13. 3 

16. 5 

18. 9 

21. 8 

23. 2 

24. 8 

53. 2 

57. 0 

60. 8 

66. 3 

7 1 . 

8 0 . 

9 1 . 

102 . 

113 . 

125 . 

143 . 

158 . 

174 . 

193 . 

217 . 

10. 5 

13. 9 

17. 2 

19. 8 

22. 7 

23. 7 

25. 7 

26. 8 

29. 7 

32. 8 

35. 5 

39. 4 

43. 7 

47. 0 

49. 5 

53. 4 

57. 5 

61. 7 

68. 2 

73. 8 

82. 9 

93. 5 

105. 8 

116. 6 

129. 5 

147. 9 

160. 8 

178. 2 

200. 2 

223. 4 

11. 5 

14. 9 

18. 0 

20. 7 

22. 6 

24. 2 

25. 4 

27. 5 

30. 7 

33. 1 

36. 2 

40. 2 

44. 9 

47. 0 

50. 5 

54. 4 

58. 3 

63. 5 

69. 2 

76. 7 

85. 2 

95. 3 

107. 9 

118. 6 

134. 6 

150. 1 

165. 3 

182. 3 

206. 5 

231. 8 

12. 3 

15. 5 

18. 3 

21. 1 

22. 9 

24. 4 

26. 0 

28. 0 

31. 1 

33. 6 

37. 0 

41. 3 

46. 0 

46. 9 

51. 2 

56. 4 

59. 3 

65. 1 

70. 3 

78. 3 

88. 7 

98. 3 

111. 4 

121. 4 

139. 0 

153. 8 

169. 7 

186. 9 

212. 0 

237. 2 

32. 9 

35. 9 

39. 8 

44. 3 

46. 9 

49. 8 

54. 4 

58. 0 

62. 8 

68. 5 

75. 1 

84. 3 

94. 7 

106. 9 

117. 6 

132. 2 

148. 9 

163. 7 

180. 5 

203. 0 

227. 5 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949 . 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

19 55. 

195b. 

1957. 

1956. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

12.7 

12.4 

2 4.0 

44.3 

38.6 

36.3 

43.3 

44.5 

46.1 

43.9 

46.0 

50.9 

50.2 

49.8 

47.1 

55.1 

69.4 

76.1 

75.3 

75.8 

72.0 

74.7 

74.1 

74.9 

82.0 

14.4 

8.9 

10.3 

13.4 

12.5 

30.3 

45.6 

49.5 

41.9 

38.1 

40.3 

4 3.9 

45.4 

45.5 

43.8 

45.7 

51.3 

50.5 

49.5 

48.3 

58.4 

7U.4 

77.2 

75.6 

72.9 

70.1 

74.4 

73.1 

75.9 

83.4 

48.3 

39.8 

39.1 

40.2 

44.6 

45.9 

45.6 

4 4.8 

46.8 

51.1 

50.2 

48.9 

49.3 

62.7 

72.5 

76.7 

77.1 

72.7 

68.9 

71.7 

72.5 

78.2 

12.3 

9.3 

12.0 

13.1 

16.9 

42.0 

48.5 

47.5 

38.4 

38.0 

41.9 

44.3 

46.5 

45.1 

45.3 

48.5 

50.9 

50.3 

47.9 

53.1 

65.0 

73.5 

77.4 

77.0 

72.7 

70.0 

73.3 

74.4 

80.2 

87.1 

618. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, ADJUSTED, EXCLUDING MILITARY 

GRANTS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

62U. MERCHANDISE IMPORTS, ADJUSTED, EXCLUDING MILITARY 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

19b9. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

4,68 5 

5,09 5 

5,07 7 

5,06 3 

6,24 2 

5,687 

7,193 

7,688 

7,944 

7,486 

10,366 

10,988 

11,791 

15,417 

22,460 

27,018 

4,91 6 

4,80 6 

5,33 6 

5,59 9 

6,19 9 

6,938 

7,171 

7,714 

8,390 

9,485 

10,704 

10,965 

11,696 

16,960 

24,212 

25,851 

5,03 1 

5,03 8 

5,33 1 

5,67 1 

6,42 3 

6,863 

7,408 

7,663 

8,898 

9,581 

10,822 

11,646 

12,493 

18,463 

25,036 

26,562 

5,01 8 

5,16 9 

5,03 7 

5,93 9 

6,63 7 

6,978 

7,538 

7,601 

8,394 

9,862 

10,577 

9,720 

13,401 

20,570 

26,602 

27,657 

11,764 

16,097 

13,265 

12,213 

10,203 

14,243 

13,449 

12,412 

12,929 

14,424 

17,556 

19,562 

16,414 

16,458 

19,650 

20,108 

20,781 

22,272 

25,501 

26,466 

29,310 

30,666 

33,626 

36,414 

42,469 

43,319 

49,381 

71,410 

98,310 

107,088 

1945, 

1946, 

1947, 

1948, 

1949, 

1950, 

1951, 

1952, 

1953, 

1954, 

1955, 

1956, 

1957, 

1958, 

1959, 

1960, 

1961, 

1962, 

1963, 

1964, 

1965, 

1966, 

1967, 

1968, 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

3,81 2 

3,39 4 

3,96 6 

4,06 4 

4,41 6 

4,688 

6,030 

6,668 

7,823 

7,589 

9,746 

10,765 

13,489 

16,360 

22,605 

25,570 

3,85 8 

3,43 8 

4,08 0 

4,22 6 

4,59 8 

5,484 

6,170 

6,476 

8,136 

9,572 

9,847 

11,722 

13,296 

17,208 

25,700 

22,568 

3,648 

3,809 

4,116 

4,372 

4,756 

5,567 

6,617 

6,570 

8,576 

9,271 

9,963 

11,948 

14,027 

17,742 

27,374 

24,483 

3,44 0 

3,89 6 

4,09 8 

4,38 6 

4,93 0 

5,77 1 

6,67 6 I 

7,15 2 

8,45 6 

9,37 5 

10,31 0 | 

11,14 4 

14,98 5 | 

19,18 9 

28,00 0 

25,43 7 I 

BCD 1977 163 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Quarterly 

I Q II Q IVQ 

Annual Year 

Quarterly 

I Q II Q III Q IVQ 

622. BALANCE ON MEKCHA\OIS C TRADE 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

o51. INCOME ON U.S. INVESTMENTS ABROAD 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

6,697 

873 

1,701 

1,111 

999 

1,826 

999 

1,163 

1,020 

121 

-103 

620 

223 

-1,698 

-943 

-145 

1,448 

1,05 8 

1,36 8 

1,25 6 

1,37 3 

1,60 1 

1,454 

1,001 

1,238 

254 

-87 

857 

-757 

-1,600 

-248 

-1,488 

3,283 

1,38 3 

1,22 9 

1,21 5 

1,29 9 

1,66 7 

1,296 

791 

1,093 

322 

310 

«59 

-302 

-1,534 

721 

-2,338 

2,0 79 

1,578 

1,273 

939 

1,553 

1,707 

1,207 

862 

449 

-62 

487 

267 

-1,424 

-1,584 

1,331 

-1,398 

2,2 20 

124 

5,708 

5,339 

1,122 

3,067 

2,611 

1,437 

2,576 

2,89 7 

4,75 3 

6,27 1 

3,46 2 

1,14 8 

4,89 2 

5,57 1 

4,52 1 

5,22 4 

6,80 1 

4,956 

3,817 

3,800 

635 

607 

2,603 

-2,260 

-6,416 

911 

-5,369 

9,030 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

19 52. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

19b5. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

19 6 9. 

1970. 

1971. 

1*72. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

19 76. 

806 

967 

999 

1,157 

1,361 

1,51 4 

1,39 2 

1,45 3 

1,58 8 

1,91 2 

2,27 8 

2,14 7 

2,27 4 

3,12 3 

6,21 7 

4,37 6 

806 

944 

1,092 

1,113 

1,331 

1,56 9 

1,41 1 

1,43 5 

1,82 0 

1,97 8 

2,11 3 

2,48 9 

2,38 7 

3,30 4 

6,55 0 

4,47 4 

847 

999 

1,084 

1,153 

1,331 

1,46 9 

1,42 6 

1,63 7 

1,79 1 

2,10 1 

2,15 6 

2,17 6 

2,59 5 

3,57 6 

7,04 6 

4,66 0 

89 2 

1,032 

1,245 

1,227 

1,319 

1,34 8 

1,51 1 

1,74 2 

1,73 8 

2,09 8 

2,02 8 

2,70 1 

2,90 5 

3,99 5 

6,42 0 

4,70 9 

r>2. INCOME ON FOREIGN INVESTMENTS 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

667. BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

282 

245 

271 

312 

356 

398 

482 

585 

o74 

901 

1,321 

1,131 

1,364 

1,799 

2,933 

3,252 

271 

245 

277 

321 

359 

437 

499 

585 

726 

1,054 

1,292 

1,108 

1,403 

2,096 

4,513 

2,943 

267 

254 

281 

334 

357 

425 

567 

574 

756 

1,220 

1,256 

1,263 

1 ,462 

2,413 

4,689 

2,978 

245 

263 

283 

357 

384 

472 

594 

618 

779 

1,287 

1,187 

1,308 

1,612 

2,511 

3,871 

3,039 

280 

333 

369 

414 

421 

461 

420 

489 

568 

639 

669 

828 

1,063 

1,007 

1,110 

1,325 

1,457 

1,73 0 

2,14 2 

2,36 1 

2,93 3 

4,46 3 

5,05 6 

4,80 9 

5,84 1 

8,81 9 

16,00 6 

12,21 2 

ly<*j. 

1946. 

1 y H I. 

1948. 

19 4 y . 

1:00. 

1951. 

19^2. 

Iyb3. 

1-J54. 

lyjb. 

19S6. 

ly57. 

ly^o. 

I95y. 

I960. 

lyol. 

lyo/. 

I9b3. 

19b4. 

lyoi. 

l y o b . 

1 y b 7 . 

lyoa. 

19by. 

l y 7 0. 

ly/l. 

ly/2. 

ly /_s. 

1974. 

Iy7i. 

1 y 7 D . 

ooo 

1,646 

1,131 

1,160 

2,28t> 

1,589 

1,399 

1,166 

254 

93 

7 81 

049 

-l,79y 

-447 

2,819 

2,o08 

814 

1,337 

1,443 

1,562 

1,973 

2,083 

1,200 

1,157 

642 

45 

867 

-bl 

-1,667 

1,178 

1,274 

1,347 

1,414 

2,152 

1,909 

896 

1,163 

612 

467 

900 

-38 

1,251 

1,485 

-215 

4,2o5 

E S, TOTAL 

1 

1 

1 

1 

2 

1 

1 

-1 

2 

4 

502 

324 

lbb 

785 

123 

559 

020 

831 

70 

368 

3b6 

-806 

238 

,771 

929 

357 

668. EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES, EXCLUDING TRANSFERS 

UNDER MILITARY GRANTS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES 

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 

6 

7 

7 

7 

9 

8 

10 

11 

11 

11 

15 

16 

17 

22 

33 

36 

584 

197 

332 

603 

206 

865 

427 

317 

,780 

,789 

,323 

,285 

,257 

,342 

,382 

,943 

6,83 0 

6,94 1 

7,78 4 

8,16 5 

9,08 0 

10,278 

10,503 

11,236 

12,526 

14,007 

15,722 

16,656 

17,290 

24,166 

35,667 

35,770 

7,031 

7,227 

7,737 

8,226 

9,422 

10,165 

10,806 

11,419 

13,106 

14,359 

15,862 

17,057 

18,362 

26,308 

37,234 

37,050 

7,04 8 

7,41 0 

7,66 1 

8,63 0 

9,62 5 

10,198 

11,040 

11,589 

12,523 

14,544 

15,577 

15,617 

19,755 

29,340 

38,491 

38,602 

14,792 

19,819 

16,861 

15,834 

13,893 

18,864 

18,122 

17,078 

17,889 

19,948 

23,772 

26,653 

23,217 

23,652 

27,595 

28,882 

30,606 

32,708 

37,393 

39,548 

42,774 

45,561 

49,933 

54,699 

62,483 

65,614 

72,664 

102,154 

144,773 

148,365 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

ly64. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

5 

5 

6 

6 

6 

7 

9 

10 

11 

11 

14 

15 

19 

22 

30 

34 

984 

551 

201 

423 

921 

276 

028 

151 

,526 

,696 

,542 

,636 

,056 

,789 

,563 

,335 

6,01 6 

5,60 4 

6,34 1 

6,60 3 

7,10 7 

8,195 

9,303 

10,079 

11,884 

13,962 

14,855 

16,717 

18,957 

24,070 

35,613 

30,686 

5 

5 

6 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

12 

13 

14 

17 

19 

24 

37 

32 

853 

953 

390 

812 

270 

256 

910 

236 

494 

,892 

,962 

,095 

,613 

,823 

,449 

,785 

6 

6 

6 

7 

8 

10 

10 

12 

14 

15 

16 

20 

26 

37 

34 

086 

495 

845 

502 

639 

020 

758 

,453 

,176 

,191 

,423 

,993 

,569 

,562 

,245 

32,443 

38,260 

41,220 

48,355 

53,722 

59,545 

65,870 

78,618 

97,249 

141,187 

132,049 

164 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

965. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS, 

DEFLATED, 17 INDUSTRIES' (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-Q SPANS) 

15*45 

1946 

1*47 

1949 

1951 

1952 

1953 

1954 

1955 

195b 

1957 

1959 

196U 

19ol 

I9b2 

1*64 

1965 

1966 

1967,,, 

I960 

1969, , 

197U 

1971 

19 7 3 

1974 

1975 

1976 

77 5U 36 

36 53 39 62 

bb 62 77 42 

59 36 33 53 

50 42 30 53 

3u 45 74 62 

53 b0 59 33 

45 33 27 62 

56 62 74 48 

5b 42 65 71 

42 65 b5 65 

53 71 56 39 

74 74 65 45 

74 48 27 45 

4b 45 4b 65 

39 4b 65 4b 

62 56 42 42 

5u 42 36 33 

53 42 77 4b 

62 71 53 62 

dO 53 59 53 

36 5U 4b 33 

27 4b 30 6b 

96*. DIFFUSION INDEX OF PROFITS, MANUFACTURING, ABOUT 1000 

CORPORATIONS (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-QUARTER SPANS) 

1946. . . , 

1947, 

1951 

1953 

1954..,, 

1956... , 

1959 

1960 

1963 

1964 

196b 

1973 

52 56 59 54 

27 32 53 48 

60 70 75 47 

46 42 34 55 

46 39 5b 65 

46 53 47 41 

57 53 50 52 

59 65 53 55 

52 48 43 52 

52 46 42 37 

40 42 71 58 

5b 63 4b 48 

52 40 45 47 

47 60 58 56 

54 47 48 56 

50 59 56 55 

59 59 59 55 

56 58 57 58 

59 62 50 51 

47 49 52 55 

54 49 56 56 

52 55 49 50 

51 47 53 46 

57 58 59 54 

59 61 59 62 

62 61 55 60 

59 58 58 40 

48 53 70 58 

970A. DIFFUSION INDEX OF BUSINESS EXPEND. FOR NEW PLANT 

AND EQUIP. — ACTUAL (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-Q SPANS) 

194b..,, 

1968 

1971 

1972 

1974 

69.4 58.3 63.9 

61.1 61.1 47.2 52.8 

38.9 16.7 19.4 25.0 

61.1 72.2 100.0 94.4 

83.3 88.9 66.7 50.0 

61.1 27.8 22.2 66.7 

77.8 63.9 47.2 30.6 

38.9 38.9 30.6 38.9 

50.0 75.0 86.1 88.9 

94.4 88.9 77.8 63.9 

63.9 50.0 50.0 16.7 

5.6 5.6 25.0 55.6 

77.8 77.8 83.3 52.8 

75.0 75.0 41.7 36.1 

33.3 52.8 36.1 69.4 

55.6 72.2 66.7 47.2 

33.3 72.2 83.3 63.9 

94.4 63.9 75.0 88.9 

77.8 83.3 83.3 75.0 

86.1 86.1 66.7 58.3 

50.0 41.7 25.0 58.3 

66.7 47.2 66.7 50.0 

83.3 66.7 75.0 41.7 

77.8 47.2 58.3 19.4 

50.0 61.1 44.4 75.0 

44.4 50.0 55.6 83.3 

83.3 61.1 83.3 66.7 

77.8 86.1 61.1 63.9 

38.9 44.4 38.9 36.1 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

4b 

67 

45 

44 

53 

56 

42 

60 

5b 

59 

55 

64 

48 

52 

50 

50 

40 

55 

62 

61 

42 

43 

AVERAGE 

55 

40 

63 

44 

52 

47 

53 

58 

49 

44 

53 

54 

46 

55 

51 

55 

58 

57 

56 

51 

54 

52 

49 

57 

60 

60 

54 

57 

AVERAGE 

55*6 

25.0 ! 

81.9 j 

72.2 

44.4 

54.9 

36.8 

75.0 1 

81.2 

45.2 

23.0 

72.9 

57.0 

47.9 

60.4 

63.2 

80.6 

79.8 

74.3 

43.8 

57.6 

66.7 

50.7 

57.6 

58.3 

73.6 

72.2 

39.6 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

965. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS, 

DEFLATED, 17 INDUSTRIES' (PCT. RISING, 4-Q MOVING AVERAGE) 

1946 

1947 

1949 

1951 

1952 

1954, 

1955 ,, . 

1956 

1960 

1962 

1963 

19b6 

1967 

1969,, 

1970 

1971. , . 

1 1972. 

1974, 

1975. 

\i *4b 

72 67 

42 45 

44 44 

50 53 

E>4 56 

34 42 

b4 60 

53 59 

61 59 

62 55 

o3 64 

4b 4b 

46 51 

54 50 

52 50 

42 40 

51 55 

59 62 

b4 62 

47 42 

34 43 

50 44 

60 62 

60 53 

43 45 

39 39 

59 67 

54 42 

45 52 

60 55 

55 61 

62 64 

60 61 

64 58 

42 41 

49 50 

56 5b 

4b 44 

41 41 

57 64 

67 62 

50 50 

39 39 

50 53 

969. DIFFUSION INDEX OF PROFITS, MANUFACTURING, ABOUT 1000 

CORPORATIONS © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

194b 

1949 

1951., 

1955 

1957... . 

1960 

1963 

1964 

1967.,, . 

196b 

1972 

1973 

1974 

49 *64 

77 76 

57 60 

54 35 

4b 65 

76 60 

39 42 

64 73 

66 60 

72 69 

B0 79 

31 80 

75 69 

52 58 

47 66 

64 60 

47 43 

72 74 

b2 81 

78 77 

71 59 

57 68 

50 *50 

74 78 

76 68 

58 55 

24 35 

84 88 

64 36 

38 48 

81 71 

54 68 

81 80 

84 84 

84 84 

56 48 

66 61 

3b 69 

52 44 

54 68 

81 80 

84 84 

74 75 

51 50 

80 84 

970B. DIFFUSION INDEX OF BUS. EXPEND. FOR NEW PLANT AND 

EQUIP.—LATER ANTICIPATIONS (PCT. RISING OVER 1-Q SPANS) 

1946 

1956 

1960 

1963. 

58 

41 

44 

86 

44 

0 

91 

83 

38 

83 

75 

69 

69 

72 

50 

61 

94 

69 

33 

77 

77 

72 

36 

41 

.3 47 

.7 30 

.4 80 

.1 83 

.4 58 

.0 13 

.7 88 

.3 72 

.9 50 

.3 72 

.0 80 

.4 63 

.4 80 

.2 75 

.0 55 

.1 83 

.4 83 

.4 61 

.3 58 

.8 63 

.8 77 

.2 77 

.1 41 

7 44 

2 33 

6 36 

6 86 

3 77 

.3 30 

9 47 

9 86 

2 58 

0 69 

2 75 

6 69 

9 75 

6 61 

.0 66 

6 41 

3 75 

3 61 

1 25 

3 47 

9 88 

8 72 

8 61 

.7 50 

.4 86 

.3 27 

.1 47 

.1 86 

.8 77 

.6 36 

.2 58 

.1 72 

.3 38 

.4 80 

.0 52 

.4 58 

.0 63 

.1 69 

.7 58 

.7 47 

.0 88 

.1 55 

.0 44 

.2 72 

.9 75, 

.2 75 

.1 55 

.0 61 

I 

8 

2 

1 

.8 

1 

3-

2 

9 

.6 

8 

3 

9 

4 

3 

2 

9 

6 

4 

2 

0 

0 

6 

1 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

53 

63 

44 

42 

57 

54 

43 

60 

57 

62 

60 

62 

45 

49 

54 

48 

41 

57 

62 

56 

42 

45 

AVERAGE 

66 

74 

58 

37 

71 

59 

42 

72 

62 

76 

82 

82 

62 

59 

55 

55 

53 

77 

83 

76 

58 

72 

AVERAGE 

41*. 6 

38.9 

74.3 

81.2 

42.4 

29.8 

84.7 

63.2 

59.7 

70.8 

70.8 

68.0 

70.1 

68.0 

48,6 

77.1 

73.6 

50.0 

52.8 

76.4 

75.7 

66.7 

47.2 

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. 

BCD 1977 165 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

I Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

Annual Year 

Quarterly 

IIQ II Q IV Q 

970C. DIFFUSION INDEX OF BUS. EXPEND. FOR NEW PLANT AND 

EQUIP.—EARLY ANTICIPATIONS (PCT. RISING OVER 1-Q SPANS) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

55.6 

41.7 

47.2 

72.2 

72.2 

16.7 

72.2 

83.3 

58.3 

61.1 

50.0 

55.6 

66.7 

72.2 

50.0 

55.6 

58.3 

38.9 

41.7 

75.0 

86.1 

75.0 

66.7 

55.6 

36.1 

63.9 

86.1 

66.7 

27.8 

63.9 

86.1 

55.6 

50.0 

69.4 

88.9 

72.2 

77.8 

50.0 

61.1 

63.9 

55.6 

58.3 

44.4 

63.9 

86.1 

52.8 

50.0 

69.4 

41.7 

75.0 

97.2 

58.3 

33.3 

77.8 

55.6 

72.2 

52.8 

66.7 

80.6 

50.0 

63.9 

52.8 

66.7 

66.7 

66.7 

63.9 

47.2 

61.1 

69.4 

66.7 

55.6 

36.1 

38.9 

77.8 

63.9 

41.7 

50.0 

69.4 

55.6 

52.8 

55.6 

66.7 

80.6 

75.0 

69.4 

63.9 

55.6 

58.3 

50.0 

50.0 

50.0 

72.2 

61.1 

61.1 

54.2 

39.6 

66.0 

79.8 

59.7 

32.0 

70.8 

70.2 

59.7 

54.9 

63.2 

76.4 

66.0 

70.8 

54.2 

59.8 

61.8 

52.8 

53.5 

54.2 

70.8 

72.9 

61.8 

971. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW ORDERS, MANUFACTURINGACTUAL1 (u) (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

971. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW ORDERS, MANUFACTURINGANTICIPATED1 <u) (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

68 

89 

60 

77 

50 

76 

82 

65 

42 

83 

74 

52 

81 

71 

80 

71 

78 

81 

66 

68 

82 

76 

78 

62 

76 

54 

84 

76 

67 

50 

84 

65 

62 

77 

74 

84 

84 

88 

72 

78 

80 

64 

70 

84 

90 

82 

54 

80 

68 

72 

56 

62 

79 

60 

72 

76 

76 

83 

84 

69 

79 

76 

60 

70 

86 

58 

86 

68 

*58 

66 

84 

72 

53 

68 

74 

52 

75 

72 

74 

82 

86 

82 

72 

80 

72 

55 

74 

84 

86 

59 

71 

78 

76 

'H 

56 

82 

77 

*56 

80 

63 

65 

76 

74 

82 

85 

86 

71 

79 

77 

61 

70 

84 

88 

75 

60 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

65 

82 

70 

74 

64 

72 

79 

76 

77 

67 

83 

69 

84 

86 

82 

80 

82 

76 

76 

82 

88 

86 

72 

71 

82 

72 

82 

80 

76 

58 

82 

81 

67 

82 

76 

82 

82 

83 

85 

71 

78 

86 

90 

80 

59 

75 

83 

66 

80 

76 

68 

61 

82 

76 

77 

82 

76 

84 

80 

82 

83 

74 

85 

85 

70 

52 

84 

72 

72 

72 

65 

85 

75 

71 

72 

82 

70 

76 

74 

78 

83 

85 

84 

81 

81 

80 

74 

81 

88 

87 

80 

73 

972. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET PROFITS, MFG. AND TRADEACTUAL1 <u) (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

972. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET PROFITS, MFG. AND TRADE— 

ANTICIPATED1® (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

54 

82 

38 

60 

49 

71 

72 

59 

38 

74 

68 

48 

73 

64 

74 

78 

82 

65 

70 

70 

61 

63 

74 

78 

74 

52 

62 

69 

45 

64 

52 

74 

70 

58 

42 

78 

58 

52 

72 

68 

78 

80 

82 

65 

73 

74 

56 

64 

76 

79 

76 

53 

57 

48 

56 

52 

76 

69 

51 

76 

52 

62 

70 

70 

79 

80 

78 

64 

72 

68 

55 

66 

79 

76 

71 

58 

58 

54 

75 

69 

48 

75 

57 

58 

71 

68 

78 

80 

80 

66 

72 

70 

57 

66 

77 

77 

71 

57 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

54 

56 

56 

66 

75 

68 

*72 

73 

60 

78 

68 

77 

80 

84 

75 

74 

78 

70 

71 

76 

82 

80 

68 

74 

72 

69 

52 

77 

75 

64 

79 

72 

84 

86 

74 

80 

79 

66 

74 

82 

85 

74 

58 

76 

71 

63 

54 

78 

74 

74 

78 

72 

82 

83 

84 

76 

78 

77 

70 

80 

84 

84 

79 

66 

36 

78 

58 

49 

64 

60 

78 

70 

64 

62 

79 

66 

73 

71 

76 

81 

84 

82 

76 

73 

76 

66 

78 

83 

80 

77 

67 

■This is a copyrighted series used by permission; i t may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. 

166 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

I Q IIQ II Q IV Q 

Annual Year 

Quarterly 

I Q IIQ IIQ IV Q 

973. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET SALES, MFG. AND TRADEACTUAL © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

973. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NET SALES, MFG. AND TRADEANTICIPATED © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1945 

1946 

1947 

1948 

1949 

1950 

1951 

1952 

1953 

1954 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

39 

60 

90 

54 

72 

50 

76 

80 

64 

40 

82 

72 

49 

80 

71 

71 

79 

80 

70 

70 

82 

86 

82 

57 

43 

69 

79 

60 

74 

50 

84 

78 

67 

46 

87 

63 

58 

78 

74 

83 

70 

82 

84 

66 

72 

82 

89 

84 

58 

67 

67 

71 

53 

82 

78 

*58 

82 

58 

70 

78 

76 

84 

87 

85 

72 

82 

78 

64 

74 

85 

86 

80 

66 

61 

64 

84 

74 

52 

68 

78 

52 

72 

76 

75 

84 

86 

82 

74 

84 

76 

62 

76 

86 

85 

70 

42 

76 

76 

'70 

54 

82 

78 

'53 

82 

61 

62 

78 

74 

83 

85 

86 

72 

82 

80 

66 

73 

84 

86 

79 

63 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

58 

86 

68 

75 

65 

72 

82 

77 

84 

80 

68 

86 

72 

82 

80 

82 

86 

74 

78 

83 

88 

86 

75 

67 

85 

70 

82 

81 

79 

58 

87 

84 

66 

84 

82 

86 

87 

90 

82 

86 

88 

73 

80 

88 

90 

78 

62 

74 

82 

79 

72 

61 

86 

81 

82 

86 

78 

86 

90 

82 

86 

86 

78 

86 

90 

90 

86 

73 

45 

86 

71 

73 

74 

63 

86 

78 

74 

72 

86 

72 

82 

78 

80 

86 

89 

86 

82 

84 

83 

76 

84 

82 

74 

974. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NO. OF EMPLOYEES, MFG. AND TRADEACTUAL © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

974. DIFFUSION INDEX OF NO. OF EMPLOYEES, MFG. AND TRADEANTICIPATED © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

44 

50 

64 

55 

56 

48 

54 

58 

54 

40 

56 

56 

47 

56 

54 

55 

60 

65 

58 

57 

59 

54 

48 

56 

63 

58 

56 

62 

56 

58 

46 

56 

57 

53 

44 

60 

54 

50 

55 

56 

58 

61 

66 

58 

60 

60 

54 

52 

58 

62 

59 

44 

6 

58 

58 

58 

49 

58 

58 

48 

59 

52 

54 

56 

55 

59 

63 

58 

58 

58 

51 

53 

62 

60 

56 

48 

48 

64 

58 

*51 

52 

60 

57 

49 

49 

58 

50 

53 

55 

56 

60 

64 

62 

58 

60 

58 

50 

55 

60 

60 

49 

52 

45 

58 

60 

56 

49 

57 

58 

45 

58 

53 

51 

56 

55 

58 

64 

58 

59 

59 

52 

52 

59 

61 

56 

47 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

50 

62 

54 

57 

53 

54 

57 

56 

54 

56 

52 

56 

54 

55 

58 

62 

60 

60 

60 

58 

55 

58 

60 

61 

53 

52 

62 

56 

56 

56 

56 

50 

56 

56 

52 

56 

55 

56 

58 

63 

60 

60 

60 

56 

58 

60 

63 

56 

48 

54 

62 

54 

56 

56 

53 

50 

56 

56 

54 

57 

54 

57 

59 

63 

60 

58 

60 

56 

58 

61 

62 

60 

54 

46 

59 

57 

56 

54 

48 

58 

56 

54 

51 

57 

52 

54 

54 

55 

58 

59 

62 

60 

60 

59 

54 

56 

60 

60 

58 

54 

975. DIF. INDEX OF LEVEL OF INVENTORIES, MFG. AND TRADE— 

ACTUAL © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

975. DIF. INDEX OF LEVEL OF INVENTORIES, MFG. AND TRADE— 

ANTICIPATED © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

47 

48 

84 

54 

53 

51 

63 

43 

62 

66 

50 

64 

60 

64 

68 

74 

68 

68 

71 

66 

62 

64 

73 

78 

58 

4 

53 

80 

48 

60 

48 

62 

68 

59 

46 

68 

60 

50 

62 

62 

66 

71 

74 

66 

68 

70 

61 

62 

66 

76 

79 

52 

3 

68 

72 

50 

58 

47 

62 

68 

48 

64 

56 

56 

62 

62 

67 

72 

73 

65 

70 

70 

62 

62 

72 

75 

78 

56 

39 

78 

58 

52 

50 

53 

50 

62 

54 

56 

61 

63 

65 

73 

74 

64 

70 

68 

58 

60 

71 

76 

69 

57 

42 

62 

74 

56 

49 

61 

67 

*47 

64 

59 

53 

62 

62 

66 

71 

74 

66 

69 

70 

62 

62 

68 

75 

76 

56 

1945. 

1946. 

1947. 

1948. 

1949. 

1950. 

1951. 

1952. 

1953. 

1954. 

1955. 

1956. 

1957. 

1958. 

1959. 

1960. 

1961. 

1962. 

1963. 

1964. 

1965. 

1966. 

1967. 

1968. 

1969. 

1970. 

1971. 

1972. 

1973. 

1974. 

1975. 

1976. 

38 

66 

54 

52 

50 

50 

60 

60 

57 

60 

52 

60 

56 

60 

64 

66 

65 

63 

66 

62 

60 

61 

69 

70 

64 

42 

65 

47 

58 

61 

59 

48 

62 

60 

53 

63 

60 

63 

64 

68 

66 

66 

68 

61 

62 

66 

72 

67 

54 

69 

47 

57 

61 

54 

48 

63 

58 

57 

62 

58 

63 

64 

69 

63 

67 

66 

64 

65 

66 

72 

72 

50 

32 

57 

56 

45 

54 

47 

62 

58 

56 

52 

62 

54 

56 

58 

60 

63 

66 

69 

62 

66 

66 

58 

65 

66 

70 

72 

54 

NOTE: These are copyrighted series used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. 

BCD 1977 167 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q II Q III Q IV Q 

976. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, MANUFACTURING— 

ACTUAL © (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1945 

1946 

1947 

1948 

1949 

1950 

1957., .. 

1960 

1967 

1968 

1970 

1971 

1975 

32 

41 52 82 92 

92 86 73 63 

50 46 52 

53 58 60 51 

44 44 47 48 

50 56 64 68 

70 68 72 74 

70 64 ... 60 

52 52 53 56 

58 60 60 58 

58 55 54 52 

52 50 54 52 

54 53 54 53 

50 54 55 55 

56 54 56 56 

58 61 64 65 

70 72 78 76 

70 70 72 73 

74 76 78 80 

82 80 82 82 

80 80 78 75 

74 76 68 70 

70 72 72 74 

82 84 86 90 

92 96 94 89 

81 78 78 78 

977. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, WHOLESALE TRADE— 

ACTUAL ® (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1945 

1947 

1948 

1950 

1951 

1954 

1955 

1962 

1965 

1966 

1973 

29 

44 61 90 94 

94 85 78 68 

48 42 58 

48 58 60 50 

46 43 48 50 

53 60 69 70 

71 68 79 78 

74 71 ... 66 

54 54 59 62 

62 64 65 64 

57 56 54 52 

51 51 54 54 

55 52 50 54 

52 56 60 58 

60 56 58 60 

63 60 68 70 

78 76 82 78 

74 74 80 82 

81 82 82 85 

85 85 86 85 

87 85 86 84 

85 86 73 74 

80 81 82 80 

90 89 92 96 

96 96 94 91 

80 79 81 81 

978. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, RETAIL TRADE— 

ACTUAL ® (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-.QUARTER SPANS) 

1945 

1949 

1959 

1969 

23 

38 49 85 95 

94 82 76 64 

44 43 52 

53 52 56 50 

44 42 44 52 

49 55 66 64 

65 66 72 70 

64 64 ... 58 

54 52 58 59 

62 65 62 59 

54 58 56 54 

52 50 57 54 

55 52 54 54 

52 54 58 61 

56 56 60 58 

62 61 67 70 

78 78 84 80 

74 80 84 87 

88 88 88 92 

91 90 90 89 

86 86 85 86 

86 84 73 74 

73 78 79 81 

90 87 93 93 

92 97 96 92 

80 84 86 88 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

67 

78 

*56 

46 

60 

71 

53 

59 

55 

52 

54 

54 • 

56 

62 

74 

71 

77 

82 

78 

72 

72 

86 

93 

79 

AVERAGE 

*72 

81 

54 

47 

63 

74 

*57 

64 

55 

52 

53 

56 

58 

65 

78 

78 

82 

85 

86 

80 

81 

92 

94 

80 

AVERAGE 

*67 

79 

*53 

46 

58 

I 68 

*56 

62 

56 

53 

54 

56 

58 

65 

80 

81 

89 

90 

86 

79 

78 

91 

94 

84 

Year 

Quarterly 

1 Q IIQ III Q IV Q 

976. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, MANUFACTURING— 

ANTICIPATED ® (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1946 

1947 

1948 

1949 

1955 

1956 

1957 '. 

1962 

1963 

1964 

1966 

1967 

1973 

1974 

1975 

28 

34 46 46 66 

90 88 82 70 

62 58 50 50 

56 ... ... 58 

50 46 48 

50 54 55 60 

66 70 66 66 

69 67 64 62 

55 52 54 

58 60 60 64 

62 62 58 56 

56 55 56 54 

57 56 56 52 

53 54 56 56 

57 58 58 57 

58 60 61 62 

65 68 72 68 

74 72 68 70 

74 76 75 76 

75 79 78 80 

79 76 78 75 

76 76 75 75 

68 72 72 70 

73 80 83 82 

86 89 92 90 

86 76 68 74 

977. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, WHOLESALE TRADE— 

ANTICIPATED ® (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1951 

1954 

1957 

1959 

1960 

1961 

1962 

1965 

1966 

1973 

1974 

22 

30 44 48 73 

92 90 84 60 

68 56 50 50 

56 ... ... 56 

53 50 45 48 

51 54 56 64 

71 70 68 68 

72 74 66 70 

62 54 59 

62 66 64 69 

65 68 60 56 

55 55 56 56 

59 58 59 54 

52 55 55 54 

61 60 59 58 

62 62 64 60 

68 72 76 72 

76 73 69 74 

78 82 78 78 

79 80 80 80 

77 80 82 80 

80 82 82 82 

70 78 80 74 

80 86 88 84 

88 94 92 91 

87 74 70 76 

978. DIFFUSION INDEX OF SELLING PRICES, RETAIL TRADE— 

ANTICIPATED ® (PERCENT RISING OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS) 

1947 

1948 

1963 

1967. , 

1968 

12 

24 35 42 65 

90 94 88 64 

63 52 44 45 

55 ... ... 52 

50 48 44 42 

48 48 53 55 

66 67 66 66 

69 66 60 64 

55 52 52 

58 62 62 66 

62 60 56 57 

55 55 55 52 

57 57 55 55 

52 54 54 57 

58 60 57 57 

58 59 60 62 

63 70 76 75 

76 76 72 78 

81 84 86 87 

84 84 84 86 

80 80 81 80 

80 80 80 80 

67 74 74 74 

76 85 88 83 

87 89 92 93 

88 75 72 79 

Annual 

AVERAGE 

48 

82 

55 

55 

67 

66 

*60 

60 

55 

55 

55 

58 

60 

68 

71 

75 

78 

77 

76 

70 

80 

89 

76 

AVERAGE 

49 

82 

56 

49 

56 

69 

70 

65 

62 

56 

58 

54 

60 

62 

72 

73 

79 

80 

80 

82 

76 

84 

91 

77 

AVERAGE 

42 

84 

51 

*46 

51 

66 

65 

62 

59 

54 

56 

54 

58 

60 

71 

76 

84 

i

 8 4 

80 

80 

72 

83 

90 

78 

NOTE: These are copyrighted series used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. 

168 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
V. APPENDIXES 

Reprints of Articles from May 1975 and November 1975 issues of BCD 

1. Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation and New Leading Indexes 

2. New Composite Indexes of Coincident and Lagging Indicators 

(Appendix C and portions of D of the first reprint and appendix A and portions 

of B of the second have been omitted because that information is superseded 

by the revised series descriptions and data given in this Handbook.) 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation and New Leading Indexes 

by Victor Zarnowitz and Charlotte Boschan 

In September 1972, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) initiated a new 

comprehensive study of cyclical indicators.1 One broad objective of the project 

was to analyze a large collection of economic time series so as to assess their past 

and prospective usefulness as aids in the interpretation of current and prediction 

of future business developments.2 The other was to use the results of that review 

to recommend such changes in form and substance of Business Conditions Digest 

(BCD) as are judged most likely to enhance the informational value of the 

report. The BEA research project is now scheduled for completion in the next 

few months. The present paper surveys briefly the background, purposes, and 

methods of the study and then concentrates on some of its results, notably the 

new composite index of leading indicators. This first, selective progress report 

will be followed shortly by a monograph that will produce a complete account 

of the analysis, techniques, and findings of the study. 

BACKGROUND 

Since the review of indicators by Moore and Shiskin in 1966, several 

important developments had occurred which made it advisable to undertake 

another appraisal of this system of economic data. 

Inflation. In 1970, for the first time in recorded U.S. history, GNP in current 

dollars and other comprehensive nominal aggregates showed only retardations, 

while GNP in constant dollars and other real indicators (such as industrial 

production and employment) generally showed contractions of the type 

associated with business recessions. This suggested the need to pay more 

attention to the distinction between nominal and real indicators in dating and 

analyzing business cycles, and we dealt rather extensively with this issue in our 

work. 

Growth cycles. In the post-World War II era, economic fluctuations in the 

United States, and particularly in Western Europe and Japan, have become 

generally much milder than they were in earlier decades. Frequently, they have 

taken the form of alternating high and low rates of economic growth, rather 

than expansions and contractions, in major economic variables.3 Turning points 

in the leading indicators have sometimes predicted reversals in cyclical activity 

(recessions and recoveries) and other times merely the transition from the 

vigorous to the sluggish phase of the growth cycle or vice versa. It would be most 

useful to develop a system of indicators which could distinguish, on a current 

basis, the signals of business cycle turns from those of growth cycle turns; but, as 

yet, we have not developed such a system, and it is indeed questionable whether 

such a distinction will be possible in practice. The treatment of growth cycles 

will be taken up in a subsequent report; in this paper we deal with business 

cycles. Accordingly, our interest here is in leading indicators as predictors of 

business cycle peaks and troughs rather than of growth cycle turning points. 

Exogenous disturbances and Government activities and policies. Recent times 

have witnessed major economic disturbances associated with external and 

political events. The occurrence or timing of such events is, in general, not 

predictable by means of the professional skills and tools of economists and 

statisticians, and their consequences are often difficult to foresee. In addition, 

both the weight of the Government and the extent of its intervention in the 

economy are much larger now than they used to be. These external and, in part, 

random factors reduce the effectiveness of cyclical indicators and of all 

forecasting approaches that rely mainly on the recurrent elements in the 

interplay of forces within the economy. 

Improvements in the use of cyclical indicators (as in other methods of 

economic forecasting) depend importantly on the advance of knowledge about 

the role of governmental stabilization policies and other activities; hence, the 

need for a review and inclusion of governmental policy variables in BCD. We 

believe it advisable, however, that such series be excluded from the composite 

indexes and that the series representing the major forces operating in the private 

1

 This project was performed under a research contract between BEA and Professor Victor 

Zarnowitz of the Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago. Dr. Zarnowitz is responsible for the overall direction of the study. Major parts of the project were carried out by 

members of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) under the direction of 

Charlotte Boschan. Substantial contributions to this study were made by the staff of the 

Statistical Indicators Division of BEA. This staff is under the immediate direction of Feliks 

Tamm, Chief of the Division, and is under the general supervision of Beatrice N. Vaccara, 

Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections. In addition, the study benefitted 

from the advice, suggestions, and guidance of the BCD Technical Committee, Edgar R. 

Fiedler, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Chairman. The authors also wish to thank Geoffrey 

H. Moore of NBER and Julius Shiskin of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for helpful comments. 

2

The present review follows on a series of such reviews by NBER. The first selection of 

indicators, limited to revivals, was made in 1937, and the list was then extended to recessions 

and successively revised in 1950, 1960, and 1966. See W. C. Mitchell and A. F. Burns, 

Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals, New York: NBER Bulletin 69, 1938; G. H. Moore, 

Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions, New York: NBER, 1950, G. H. 

Moore, ed., Business Cycle Indicators, 2 vols., New York: NBER, 1961; and G. H. Moore and 

J. Shiskin, Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, New York: NBER, 1967. 

3See Use Mintz, "Dating U.S. Growtn Cycles," Explorations in Economic Research, 

Occasional Papers of NBER, Vol. I, No. 1", Summer 1974. 

sector of the economy be kept separate from the series representing governmental policy actions and other forces external to the private sector. Separation of 

the two sets of data (which, of course, is possible only to a limited extent) is 

desirable so that interaction between them, and particularly between the leading 

series and the economic policy indicators, can be studied. 

BUSINESS CYCLES AND THE RELATIONS 

BETWEEN INDICATORS 

Business cycles are recurrent sequences of cumulative expansions and 

contractions which are diffused over a multitude of economic processes and are 

directly observable in fluctuations of the major input and output series which 

reflect aggregate economic activity.4 While recurrent, the business cycles of 

experience are definitely nonperiodic; that is, their duration varies greatly, but 

they are sufficiently long to permit cumulative movements to develop in both 

downward and upward directions, which normally requires several years. They 

also vary considerably in intensity and scope but are clearly distinct from the 

much less synchronized and smaller movements of shorter duration. Although 

widely diffused throughout the economy, they typically affect some sectors and 

processes (e.g., manufacturing, inventory investment) much more than others 

(e.g., services, money wage determination). Business fluctuations of the type 

briefly described here have long been observed in modern well-developed 

economies with large private enterprise sectors. 

As implied by the pervasiveness of business cycles, numerous time series 

display cyclical movements; i.e., "cyclical indicators" abound. It is possible to 

compare the different series with respect to how well they perform as indicators 

and to rank, select, and classify them accordingly. This is done according to a 

number of specific criteria which are explained in greater detail later on. The 

selected indicators are those whose records stand out for the consistency with 

which their movements have paralleled business cycles; the regularity of their 

timing at turning points in aggregate economic activity; the prominence of their 

cyclical fluctuations relative to shorter erratic changes and longer trends; and the 

importance of the represented activities within the economic system and, 

particularly, for the processes of general business expansions and contractions. 

This latter "economic significance" criterion provides a direct link between the 

indicator analysis and economic theories bearing upon the nature, causes, and 

effects of business cycles.5 

An analysis of the relationships among indicators shows that important and 

persistent timing sequences and amplitude differences exist among the various 

series. The sequential relationships that link the individual indicators have simple 

and sensible explanations, as illustrated by the following types: 

(a) The leads of series that represent early stages of the production and 

investment processes relative to those that represent late stages. Thus, for 

example, contracts and orders for plant and equipment show large swings that 

lead, while business fixed investment expenditures have smaller cyclical 

movements that coincide with or lag the fluctuations in aggregate output. Leads 

of new orders or contracts are necessarily involved where goods are made to 

order rather than sold from stock. 

(b) Timing relations that reflect sequences of business decisions under 

conditions of uncertainty. For example, increased demand for output, calling for 

additional labor input, is likely to be met first by lengthening the workweek and 

only later, if still needed, by hiring new workers, because the former adjustment 

is less binding than the latter. Similarly, reductions in hours would precede 

layoffs in times of falling demand. In the vicinity of cyclical turning points, the 

uncertainty about the direction, size, and duration of current and impending 

movements in business activity is particularly large, so some time will elapse 

before the trend becomes clearer and the interim decisions on hours are followed 

by those that affect the number of persons on payrolls. Hence, cyclical changes 

in average hours worked precede those in employment, particularly in 

manufacturing. 

4Historically, the series used to estimate the reference dates of business cycle peaks and 

troughs included not only comprehensive input and output measures (such as total employment, GNP in constant dollars, industrial production) but also the related nominal indicators 

(e.g., national income, manufacturing and trade sales, and, for early periods not covered by 

national income accounts, bank debits and payrolls). 

5

The main factors in these theories can be roughly grouped as follows: (1) The interaction 

between investment and final demand, or between the investment and saving functions; (2) 

changes in the supply of money, bank credit, interest rates, and the burden of private debt; 

(3) changes in price-cost relations, profit margins and totals, and business expectations. This, 

of course, is but a starkly condensed list, which groups together several types of explanations, 

e.g., (1) includes accelerator-multiplier models, hypotheses that emphasize lags and nonlinearities in investment and saving functions, and views stressing the role of innovations and 

investment opportunities in particular industries; (2) contains both the older credit and the 

current monetarist theories; and (3) covers the concept of horizontal maladjustments resulting 

in price-cost imbalances as well as that of businessmen's errors of overoptimism and pessimism. For an overview of business cycle theory and research, see V. Zarnowitz, "The Business 

Cycle Today: An Introduction," in Zarnowitz, ed., The Business Cycle Today, New York: 

NBER, 1972, pp. 1-38. 

170 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
(c) Timing sequences that reflect stock-flow relationships. A stock series 

often undergoes retardation before reversal; hence, the corresponding flow series 

(or rate of change in the stock) tends to turn ahead of the stock. Thus, 

investment in inventories leads total inventories, net accession rate leads 

employment, and net change in bank loans to business leads the total of such 

loans outstanding. Other timing regularities are revealed when the inflows and 

outflows are observed separately. For example, the change in unfilled orders 

(i.e., the excess of new orders over shipments) leads new orders; hence, it also 

leads—by long intervals—shipments and total unfilled orders. This is so because 

new orders have both larger and earlier fluctuations than shipments. 

However, the existence of these regular timing sequences among various 

economic time series is not enough to demonstrate that some indicators are 

likely to lead, others to have approximately coincident timing, and still others to 

lag at business cycle turns. The additional step that is needed is implied by our 

definition of business cycles as fluctuations in aggregate economic activity; thus 

the series that tend to coincide include the aggregates of input and output. The 

cyclical turns in these variables, and in their major sensitive components, usually 

occur in relatively close clusters in time about the turning points marking the 

transition from an expansion to a contraction or vice versa. Since series such as 

new orders, building contracts, and the average workweek tend to lead industrial 

production, construction work, and employment, respectively, they are also apt 

to lead at the reference dates of the business cycle. By the same token, 

inventories should lag the reference turn, because a decline (rise) in sales and 

output (when recognized as more than transient) creates pressures to reduce 

(increase) the stocks of materials and finished products. Short-term bank loans 

to business firms, which are used to a large extent for inventory financing, would 

therefore also tend to lag, and so would the interest rates charged on them. 

The leading indicators, while helping to predict the more sluggish variables, 

are themselves considerably more difficult to predict. One reason for this is that 

they are, in general, highly sensitive to disturbances of all kinds and so are 

particularly volatile. Many of them, too, are tied to expectations and decisions 

that are in part "autonomous." However, major changes in some leading 

indicators can also be attributed in part to the prior behavior of the laggers. 

Thus, the downturn in inventories precedes, and may contribute to, the later 

upturn in new orders and then in production, etc., as the need for stocks to be 

replenished stimulates orders and helps to bring about the next recovery. The 

decline in interest rates during a recession would similarly assist in producing 

early upturns in housing starts, orders for capital goods, common stock prices, 

and profits. 

In summary, the choice of the principal leading, coincident, and lagging 

indicators is guided by and is consistent with general economic considerations 

and logic. This seems worth stressing since it is sometimes asserted, without 

regard for evidence to the contrary, that the indicator approach has no 

theoretical justification. It is true, however, that the process of selecting and 

evaluating the individual indicators is based largely on empirical screening and 

scoring procedures applied according to certain specific criteria to large 

collections of monthly and quarterly time series. In the present state of 

knowledge, it is necessary to make wide, though careful, use of such methods in 

order to identify and to retain indicators which on the record have performed 

well even if their behavior has no completely satisfactory theoretical explanation; of course, the series whose economic significance in relation to business 

cycles is better understood are, ceteris paribus, much preferred. 

MEASURES OF CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR AND SCORING 

OF INDICATOR PERFORMANCE 

Six criteria were applied in assessing and selecting the indicators: (1) 

Economic significance—how well understood and how important is the role in 

business cycles of the variable represented by the data? (2) statistical 

adequacy—how well does the given series measure the economic variable or 

process in question? (3) timing at revivals and recessions—how consistently has 

the series led (or coincided, or lagged) at the successive business cycle turns? (4) 

conformity to historical business cycles—how regularly have the movements in 

the specific indicator reflected the expansions and contractions in the economy 

at large? (5) smoothness—how promptly can a cyclical turn in the series be 

distinguished from directional change associated with shorter (mainly irregular) 

movements? and (6) currency or timeliness—how promptly available are the 

statistics and how frequently are they reported? 

A formal, detailed weighting scheme to score each series according to its 

relevant characteristics was first developed and applied in the 1966 indicator 

study by Moore and Shiskin. The present review uses an explicit scoring plan 

which is generally similar to theirs and deviates only in a number of details. The 

system disciplines and systematizes the judgment of both reviewer and user of 

the indicators. It is an effort to insure that all the important aspects of the 

evaluation problem are considered in a consistent and, to a significant extent, 

replicable way. Clearly, any scoring plan, no matter how carefully conceived, 

will include some subjective or arbitrary elements about which judgments could 

differ considerably, but these are largely matters of detail which seem unlikely 

to impair seriously the value of the system as a whole. 

The maximum scores listed in table 1 show the weights assigned to each of the 

six principal criteria and their components (cols. 1-2). These weights reflect a 

broad judgment about the relative importance of each of the respective criteria 

for the assessment of the performance of the indicators. The main considerations 

on which the judgment is based are as follows: 

(a) Scoring the economic significance characteristic is difficult and inevitably 

subjective, allowing by and large only for ordinal assessment. While this part of 

the evaluation is undoubtedly important, is seemed advisable to handle as much 

of it as possible by preselection. Thus, data representing variables judged to be of 

low economic significance have not been included in the review. This makes it 

possible to assign to this qualitative characteristic a weight of no more than 16.7 

percent, or one-sixth of the total. 

(b) Statistical adequacy is judged equally important. Here a number of 

subcomponent scores are determined and summed so that the evaluation is 

largely quantitative rather than qualitative. 

(c) The consistency of cyclical timing is crucially important for the principal 

use of the indicators: timely recognition (ideally, for the leading series, 

reasonably successful prediction) of business cycle turning points. Hence, timing 

is accorded the highest weight (26.7 percent). 

(d) Conformity and smoothness receive the second and third largest weights, 

respectively, since it is highly desirable that the movements of an indicator 

parallel business cycles and not be obscured by relatively large and frequent 

irregular variations. 

(e) Currency is given the smallest weight. Prompt availability of the data is 

certainly important for current analytical and forecasting uses.6 But a series with 

a consistently long lead and adequate conformity and smoothness can be quite 

useful even if its currency is relatively low, whereas a series whose timing and 

conformity are poor is not likely to be of much help (regardless of its 

smoothness) even if it comes out promptly. Moreover, in order to distinguish 

the cyclical movements in a volatile series from short-term irregular changes, 

considerable smoothing may be needed, which implies a loss in currency. 

Our scores relate to the cyclical behavior of economic time series during the 

period 1947-70, while the Moore-Shiskin 1966 review related to the period 

before 1966 (as far back for each series as data were available). Because our 

scores are "rebased" in accordance with the post-World War II distribution of 

the cyclical timing comparisons, they differ appreciably in certain parts from 

those of the Moore-Shiskin review; yet the overall weighting systems adopted in 

the two studies are rather similar. (Compare cols. 1 and 3 in table 1.) 

To explain further the rationale and applications of our procedure, the scoring 

of indicators under each of the six major criteria is now described in some detail. 

(The reader who is not interested in the more specific details may skip the 

remaining pages of this section.) 

Economic significance. Two factors are considered here: first, the importance 

of the economic process or variable which the particular series stands for and, 

second, the breadth of coverage of the series in terms of the representation of 

the activity concerned. The series under review were classified by nine major 

"types of economic process" and each of these classes was subdivided into 

several "groups of variables."7 It is clearly these major categories that can be 

meaningfully compared in terms of "economic significance" rather than the 

individual series. Hence, as a first step, a broad hierarchy of three levels of 

economic variables was postulated, namely, in descending order: 

(a) Comprehensive output and input aggregates in real and nominal terms 

(since they define best the general economic activity and also act as key 

determinants in economic decisionmaking). 

(b) The major components of the above aggregates and other variables to 

which causal roles in business cycles are attributed (e.g., investment, money 

flows, profits). 

(c) Variables whose role is primarily symptomatic rather than causal (e.g., the 

marginal employment adjustments, change in mortgage debt). 

Depending on whether the given series has a broad or narrow coverage, it is 

accorded a score of 100 or 90 percent for economic significance if it belongs at 

the top level of this hierarchy; 90 or 80 percent if it is placed in the middle 

group; and 80 or 70 if in the low group. Thus, GNP was scored 100 percent and 

industrial production 90 percent; business expenditures for plant and equipment 

90 percent and production of business equipment 80 percent; average weekly 

unemployment insurance claims 80 percent and the layoff rate in manufacturing 

70 percent. No series that scored less than 70 percent for economic significance 

was included in the list of the principal indicators. 

Statistical adequacy.8 Eight aspects of this characteristic are separately 

assessed as follows (the maximum contributions to the total score for statistical 

adequacy are given in parentheses): (1) Quality of the reporting system (15 

percent)—whether set up directly for statistical purposes, a byproduct of an 

administrative program, or nonexistent (as for series that are based on indirect 

sources, e.g., estimated from related variables); (2) coverage of process (15 

percent) —full enumeration, probability sample, or other sample classified by 

coverage; (3) coverage of time period (10 percent)—full month or quarter, 1 day 

per week or 1 week per month, or less (e.g., 1 day each month); (4) availability 

6

 For special rules relating to the currency requirements of series included in the leading 

composite index, see p. ix. 

7

The major types of economic process are the following: I. Employment and 

Unemployment; II. Production and Income; III. Consumption, Saving, and Distribution; IV. 

Fixed Capital Investment; V. Inventory and Inventory Investment; VI. Prices, costs, and 

Profits; VII. Money and Credit; VIII. Foreign Trade and Payments; IX. Government Activities. 

There is strong family resemblance between this classification and that presently employed in 

BCD, but some modifications had to be made to accommodate the many new series considered. Groups II and III above correspond roughly to Group II, "Production, Income, 

Consumption, and Trade," in the present BCD division. See table 2 for the application of the 

new classification to the series in the leading composite index. 

8

These scores, first assigned by Josephine Su, NBER Data Bank Manager and Research 

Analyst, were reviewed by several statistical agencies of the Federal Government and reassessed on the basis of their comments. We are very indebted for this expert assistance, 

although the responsibility for any errors must remain ours. 

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TABLE 1. SCORING SYSTEMS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS 

Line Criteria 

Maximum scores (percent) 

BEA 1975 review * 

Principal 

characteristics 

(1) 

Component 

characteristics 

(2) 

Moore-Shi skin 

1966 review2 

(3) 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

21 

22 

1. 

2. 

b. 

c. 

d. 

e. 

f. 

g. 

h. 

4, 

Economic significance 

Statistical adequacy 

a. Reporting system 

Statistical coverage of 

Coverage of time unit.. 

Measure of error 

Frequency of revisions. 

Length of series 

Comparability over time 

Other considerations... 

Timing 

At business ( a 

cycle peaks \ b 

At business ( a 

cycle troughs...*^ b 

Conformity 

a. Probability 

b. Extra turns 

c. Amplitude 

Smoothness 

Currency 

16.7 

16.7 

process. 

Probability. 

Dispersion.. 

Probability. 

Dispersion.. 

Total. 

26.7 

16.7 

13.3 

10.0 

100.0 

10.7 

2.7 

10.7 

2.7 

20.0 

20.0 

20.0 

20.0 

10.0 

10.0 

100.0 

1Entries in column 1 do not add up exactly to 100.0 because of rounding; entries in column 2 do not add 

up exactly to the corresponding entries in column 1 for the same reason. 

2See Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, as cited, Part II and appendix A, for further 

detail. 

of estimates of sampling and reporting errors (5 percent); (5) frequency of 

revisions (20 percent)—none, once a reporting period, or more often; (6) length 

of series (15 percent if data begin in 1948 or earlier); (7) comparability over 

time (15 percent if no breaks since 1947); and (8) other considerations 

(miscellaneous shortcomings handled by judgmental evaluation). 

The above statistical adequacy scores consider only the frequency of revisions, 

not their size. However, because business forecasters must use preliminary 

estimates in lieu of the as yet unknown final values, series that are subject to 

large revisions which frequently involve directional changes are particularly 

troublesome. For this reason such series, regardless of their statistical adequacy 

score, are not included in the composite index of leading indicators.9 

Timing. Measurement of the cyclical timing characteristics of the indicators 

has four phases: (1) Identification and dating of the broad movements which 

constitute the so-called specific cycles in these time series; (2) deciding on the 

reference dates to be used, i.e., on the chronology of U.S. business cycle peaks 

and troughs; (3) matching the specific-cycle turning points with the corresponding reference dates; and (4) scoring the cyclical timing performance of an 

indicator, based mainly on the probability that the observed number of timing 

comparisons of a given type will be equaled or exceeded by chance. 

(1) In the first phase of the timing analysis, the National Bureau of Economic 

Research (NBER) computer program for the selection of cyclical turning points 

has been extensively used.10 The specific cycles are defined as being always 

significantly longer and usually, but not always, larger than the seasonal and 

9

 For the adopted method of estimating the magnitude and impact of past revisions, see 

Julius Shiskin, "Measuring Current Economic Fluctuations," Annals of Economic and Social 

Measurement, January 1973, pp. 1-15. 

10Over 96 percent of nearly 3,000 computer-selected turns were accepted by judgment 

based on NBER rules and experience, less than 3 percent were rejected, and less than 1 

percent were shifted. The program failed to identify about 4 percent of all finally selected 

turning pdints. 

The programmed selection of cyclical turning points is fully described and critically evaluated in Gerhard Bry and Charlotte Boschan, Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, New York: NBER, 1971, chapter 2. 

irregular variations. All sufficiently long fluctuations are therefore recognized as 

cyclical, and others that are too short and shallow are screened out. The full 

specific cycles, whether measured from peak to peak or from trough to trough, 

must have a duration of at least 15 months, and any expansion or contraction 

phase must have a duration of at least 5 months. 

(2) The timing measures are based on the reference chronology established by 

NBER. As new and revised data accumulate over time, there is increasing need 

for a review of business cycle reference dates. The latest NBER review resulted 

in a few small changes. Two peaks were shifted forward and one backward, in 

each case by 1 month: from July to August 1957, from May to April 1960, and 

from November to December 1969. One trough date was shifted backward by 3 

months, from August to May 1954. The dates of the other two peaks and four 

troughs of U.S. business cycles in the 1948-70 period remain unchanged. The 

revised chronology is used for the timing analysis in this article.11 

(3) It is not always easy to match the specific (S) turns in a series with the 

reference (R) turns, particularly where the movements do not conform very well 

to the cyclical fluctuations in the economy at large. As a rule, S and R are 

matched only if there is (a) no other reference-cycle turn and (b) no other 

specific-cycle turn between them. Where both (a) and (b) are met, but there are 

two like S turns on opposite sides of R, then that S is matched which deviates no 

more than 3 months from R.12 In a very small fraction of the cases (1 percent 

or less) these rules have been relaxed on judgmental grounds. 

(4) To determine the probabilities for the various timing categories, the 

individual timing comparisons are classified into three nonoverlapping categories: leads (denoted by —), lags (by +), and exact coincidences (by 0). In addition, 

following the long practice in business cycle analysis, we distinguish a class of 

"rough coincidences," which includes short leads and short lags as well as 

1 1

 In this issue of BCD, the new reference cycle dates are shown only for the charts of the 

new leading composite index and its components. The remaining series in BCD are charted 

according to the old reference chronology. The new dates will be adopted for all series in the 

near future. 

1 2Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles, New York: NBER, 

1947, pp. 118-120. 

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"exact" coincidences.13

 The overall distributions of nearly 1,500 timing 

comparisons for a representative sample of 188 indicator series show a heavy 

preponderance of leads over lags at the five business downturns of the period 

1948-70. At the five upturns, on the other hand, the distribution was more 

nearly symmetrical. The timing comparisons for the 188 series examined yield 

the following tabulation of relative frequencies:14 

Rough 

Leads (L) coincidences (C) Lags (Lg) 

Peaks 0.7 0.3 0.2 

Troughs .4 .4 .4 

All turns .55 .35 .30 

Using this distribution and the additional assumption that the results in 

successive cycles are independent, the probabilities corresponding to the 

observed timing records of the indicators are determined by application of 

cumulative binomial distribution.15 Thus, the high relative frequency of leads at 

recent business downturns, when translated into the high probability that such 

leads are due to chance (p = 0.7), means that a series must have a highly 

consistent record of early timing in order to qualify as a leader at peaks. The 

corresponding probabilities for the other types of timing are much lower.16 

The timing scores also take into account the dispersion of the leads and lags 

about their mean. The standard deviations of leads and lags tend to be much 

larger at peaks than at troughs, and our scores reflect this difference. The scoring 

for dispersion gets 20 percent of the weight in the overall score for timing. 

Conformity. A series conforms positively to business cycles if it rises during 

expansions in aggregate economic activity and declines during contractions; it 

conforms invertedly if it moves countercyclical^, i.e., down in expansions and 

up in contractions. How well a series has conformed can be measured by relating 

the number of business cycle phases that are matched by the specific-cycle 

movements to the total number of phases covered, taking into account the 

direction of each movement and also the systematic leads or lags of the given 

series.17 

Two other important aspects of cyclical conformity are included in the overall 

conformity score. One allows for the number of "extra" specific cyclesmovements in the indicators which do not match the general business expansions 

and contractions and can result in misleading "false signals." The other takes 

account of the amplitude of cyclical fluctuations in the series, since—other 

things being equal—larger movements will be more distinct, which is a positive 

feature in an indicator. To derive the amplitude measure, we compute the 

percentage change between the peak and trough values of the time series at 

successive reference dates (shifted by the median timing) and divide the results 

by the durations of the corresponding phases.18 These per-month amplitudes are 

then averaged for all reference phases, with phase durations used as weights. 

To conclude, conformity scores are computed on the 0-to-100 scale by adding 

up the following three components: Probability score, maximum 50 points; 

extra turns score, maximum 30 points; and amplitude score, maximum 20 

points. 

Smoothness. An indicator with a good performance record on cyclical 

conformity and timing may, nevertheless, be of little value for current business 

analysis and forecasting if its cyclical movements are obscured by large erratic 

variations. Indeed, insufficient smoothness is the main defect in many indicators. 

Higher degrees of smoothness can be achieved by certain simple, closely 

interrelated devices—longer time units, moving averages, comparisons over longer 

time intervals— but always at a loss in currency. Sometimes it is advantageous to 

13Taking account of the systematic timing differences by type of turn which are strongly 

in evidence, the concept of rough coincidences was modified to include the intervals -3 to +1 

months at peaks and -1 to +3 months at troughs. The percentages of rough coincidences so 

defined are 28 and 42 at business cycle peaks and troughs, respectively. Under the old 

definition (-3 to +3 months at either turn), the corresponding proportions would be 34 and 56 

percent. The exact coincidences account for about 8 percent of the observations at peaks and 

21 percent at troughs. 

1 4

 Because the concept of rough (rather than exact) coincidence was used, the entries in 

each line add up to 1.2, not 1.0, since some timing comparisons may be in two groups (L and 

C, or Lg and C); leads and lags are, of course, mutually exclusive. An exact coincidence is 

counted as a half-lead and a half-lag in the computation of the probabilities for leads and lags. 

15This general approach, first adopted by Moore in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical 

Revivals and Recessions, New York: NBER, 1950, is workable for the purpose on hand, 

although the independence assumption can be questioned. Our procedure differs from that 

followed by Moore (1950) and Moore and Shiskin (1966) in that we use different probabilities and a modified concept of C, both reflecting the post-1947 timing distributions. 

1 6

 In fact, a series may have more leads than rough coincidences at peaks and still score 

better if it is treated as a coincider rather than as a leader (in which case it is so treated). For 

exa.nple, the index of industrial production has four leads at business cycle downturns in 

19^-3-69 (-4, +1, -6, -3, -3). The probability that four leads out of five possible comparisons 

occurred by chance is 0.528 (based on p = 0.7), while the probability for three rough 

coincidences (given p = 0.3) is only 0.163. 

1 7This is done by shifting the reference peak dates by the median lead or lag of the series 

at peaks, and analogously for troughs. The average values of the series in 3-month periods 

centered on the so-ascertained dates are then computed and compared to see whether the 

series rose, declined, or showed no change in each of the cyclical phases covered. See Bry and 

Boschan, op. cit, p. 105 ff. 

1 8

 Reference rather than specific-cycle amplitudes are used so as to have a measure based 

on only those movements in the given series that can be associated with business cycles. (In 

the 1966 study, amplitude scores were based on specific-cycle figures; see Moore and Shiskin, 

op. cit, p. 91.) 

use smoothed data for erratic series that have long leads and come out relatively 

promptly. As shown later, we have sometimes done so. In these few cases, we 

have adjusted the scores to reflect the loss of currency incurred in the smoothing 

process. 

Our measures of smoothness (like those used by Moore and Shiskin) are based 

on the relationship between the irregular and the cyclical component of a time 

series. For monthly data, the MCD (months for cyclical dominance) estimate 

is used. This identifies the shortest span in months for which the average 

percentage change (without regard to sign) in the trend-cycle component of the 

series is greater than that of the irregular component.19 

Currency. Two elements are considered here: periodicity (how frequently the 

figures are compiled) and lag of release (how promptly after the period to which 

they refer the figures become available). The availability of daily or weekly 

figures is an advantage because they help to make early estimates for the current 

month and can be smoothed with a minimum loss of currency. The next best 

thing is a monthly series that comes out soon after each month covered. Our 

currency scores reflect the availability of the data to the BCD staff at the time of 

their publication deadline (about the 25th of each month). 

COMBINING THE INDICATORS: RATIONALE, 

CRITERIA, AND METHOD 

The scoring procedures described above were applied to a large and diversified 

collection of time series. Over 150 individual series already included in BCD and 

a similar number of new series were considered. Monthly data accounted for 

about two-thirds of that total, quarterly for the rest. Not all of these series 

qualified for full analysis as cyclical indicators, though the majority did. The 

qualifying series represent a large body of material which is of direct interest to 

business analysts and provides the data base for forthcoming changes in the full 

list of cyclical indicators in BCD. They will be presented in the comprehensive 

report on the results of this project; but here we can deal selectively with only a 

fragment of that material, namely, the principal indicators that lead at both 

peaks and troughs of business cycles. Thus, the focus of our attention in this 

article is on those series that are chosen to be included in the new composite 

index of leading indicators and on the comparison of the new with the old 

index. 

Why should indicators be combined into indexes? If the scoring system works 

as intended, it will help us identify a group of series that are particularly useful 

in providing advance information about an impending business downturn or 

upturn. These series are chosen from the many reviewed on the strength of their 

performance on the average over the sample period, giving the preponderant 

weight to the observations near the turning points covered. When such indicators 

are used for analyzing and forecasting business conditions, it is, of course, 

assumed that they will retain their anticipatory qualities beyond the sample 

period, and each new recession or recovery will test afresh that working 

hypothesis. Failures of individual indicators do not refute the method; rather, 

they merely impair and, if repeated, ultimately invalidate the particular series 

concerned. On the other hand, even a failure on a single occasion, if it extended 

to the whole set of the principal leading series, would have strong negative 

implications for the indicator approach. 

The reasons why a group of indicators should be more reliable over time than 

any of its individual members or subsets have to do with the nature and causes 

of business cycles. It has long been observed that each cycle has its unique 

characteristics as well as aspects which it shares with other cycles. There is no 

single proven and accepted cause of cyclical fluctuations nor a single invariable 

chain of symptoms. In other words, no set of simple, stable functions has yet 

been identified that would adequately explain or predict all the major 

fluctuations of the U.S. and other modern economies.20 Instead, we have a 

variety of plausible and not mutually exclusive hypotheses and a number of 

frequently observed regularities which, though they might be expected to 

persist, are certainly not immutable. Thus, how the individual indicators would 

perform in a particular episode is likely to depend on which presumptive causes 

of a cyclical reversal are then in operation and how (through which process) they 

work. Some leading indicators, then, would prove most useful in one set of 

conditions, others in a different set. To increase the chances of getting true 

signals and reduce those of getting false ones, it is advisable to rely on all such 

potentially useful leading indicators as a group.2 * 

1 9

 For most series, a 13-term Henderson moving average is used to represent the trend-cycle 

component. This is one of three smooth and flexible averages which may be chosen on the 

basis of the relative amplitude of the irregular and cyclical movements. For relatively smooth 

series, a 9-month Henderson curve is used; for erratic series, a 23-month Henderson curve is 

used. The irregular component is obtained by dividing the trend-cycle component into the 

seasonally adjusted series. The ratio of the average percentage change in the irregular component to that in the trend-cycle component, l/C, generally declines as the span (injrionths) 

over whichjhe change is measured increases. MCD is the shortest span for which l/C < 1.00. 

The MCD, l/C, and related measures of variability are shown for many series in appendix A, 

part III of BCD. For more complete explanations, see J. Shiskin, "Electronic Computers and 

Business Indicators" and "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," chapters 17 and 

18 in Business Cycle Indicators, Volume I. 

2 0

 It might be argued that if such an ideal model were available we would presumably have 

all that is needed for successful macroeconomic analysis-and forecasting and policymaking as 

well—if the model could be implemented with the available data and used optimally for policy 

simulations and prescriptions. 

2 1

 For a similar interpretation of the composite index of leading indicators, see Saul H. 

Hymans, "On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points," Brookings 

Papers on Economic Activity, 1973, Vol. 2, pp. 347-348. 

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Another important reason for combining the leading series into composite 

indexes is that the measurement errors in individual indicators (especially in the 

most recent observations based on preliminary data) are often large. To the 

extent that the data errors in the different indicators are independent, the risk of 

being misled can be reduced by evaluating the signals, not from any one series 

viewed in isolation, but from a number of series.22 

The leading indicators tend to be sensitive not only to sustained cyclical 

fluctuations in the economy but also to frequent disturbances of all kinds. 

Hence, the month-to-month changes in these series (after elimination of seasonal 

elements) tend to reflect the short erratic fluctuations much more than the 

longer cyclical movements. By combining the leading series into an index, some 

of that "noise" is eliminated; that is, a properly constructed composite index 

can be much smoother than any of its individual components. 

What requirements must the index meet? Each of its components must 

obviously rate well on two counts: (1) Timing of the proper type2 3 and (2) 

relatively high overall scores. However, the selection cannot be guided by the 

scores alone, since more is required of a good index than of a good single 

indicator. An important requirement of the composite index is diversified 

economic coverage. The component series should be drawn from all economic 

process groups that fit well into the given timing pattern. However, broad 

coverage in these terms cannot be achieved except at some expense in accepting 

lower scores.24 

Prompt availability of reasonably accurate data is another requirement of an 

index that is to be useful in current business analysis and forecasting. We have 

therefore considered for the leading index only those series that are available 

monthly with sufficiently short publication lags and are not subject to large 

revisions. 

How are the indexes constructed?7 s There are five basic steps: (1) For each 

component series, month-to-month percent changes are computed. (For series 

which are expressed as changes, month-to-month differences are computed.) (2) 

Each series of changes obtained in step 1 is standardized (i.e., divided by the 

long-run average of these changes without regard to sign). Standardization puts 

all the components on an equal basis (i.e., their average month-to-month change 

is 1) and prevents the more volatile series from dominating the index. (3) For 

each month, a weighted average of the standardized changes derived in step 2 is 

computed, with the components weighted according to their overall scores as 

cyclical indicators. (4) The average changes from step 3 are also standardized 

(i.e., divided by their average without regard to sign). (5) The standardized 

average changes from step 4 are cumulated into a monthly index which is 

rebased so that 1967 = 100.26 Because of the adjustment in step 4, the average 

absolute month-to-month change in the composite index is 1, which provides a 

useful standard with which to compare changes in any particular period. 

COMPOSITION OF THE NEW INDEX 

OF LEADING INDICATORS 

The new index consists of 12 series drawn from six economic process groups. 

Group II, Production and Income, is not represented because most series in this 

group have coincident timing. Four series are retained from the old index (table 

2, items 1-4); five are substitutes for related series in the old index (items 5-9); 

and three are essentially new series representing activities not covered in the old 

index (items 10-12). The selected series, which are shown in chart 1, are as 

follows: 

Employment and Unemployment. The new index, like the currently 

published one, includes two series on marginal employment adjustments. The 

average workweek of production workers is retained from the old index, but the 

layoff rate is somewhat preferable to, and replaces, initial unemployment 

claims.27 

2 2This is, of course, a general argument that applies to other groups as well, e.g., to 

coincident and lagging indicators. It could be taken to suggest the use of overlapping information (i.e., different measurements for essentially the same or similar variables), but this is 

undesirable on other grounds: duplication should be avoided inasmuch as it results in unintended and uncontrolled multiple weighting of some elements in the index. 

2 3 0 u r task here is to construct an index that would signal both types of turn, so all 

components must lead at both peaks and troughs and score well on that basis. (Each must 

have the timing classification L, L, 1_; see appendix A.) This excludes indicators which lead at 

either business downturns or upturns, but not at both. Such series could be used in composite 

indexes designed to anticipate, not business expansions and contractions, but the onset of one 

or the other phase of the cycle. We have constructed such experimental separate indexes for 

peaks and troughs with a view to (1) broadening the coverage in terms of the different 

economic processes and (2) obtaining earlier and more regular indications of recoveries (since 

consistent and sizable leads at troughs have been at a premium in the recent cycles). Good 

progress was made with regard to the first, but not yet with regard to the second. Further 

efforts in this direction are believed warranted and will continue. The full report on the 

project will include the results of these experiments. 

2 4This is so especially if the indexes are restricted to series that lead at both peaks and 

troughs. 

2 5The task of constructing and testing the indexes was performed by the Statistical 

Indicators Division of BEA directed by Feliks Tamm. We thank in particular Morton 

Somer, Barry Beckman, and Kenneth Beckman of the SID staff for active assistance. The 

following.discussion of the technique involved is starkly abbreviated. For further detail, see 

appendix B. 

2 6

 For the procedures used for the "reverse trend adjusted" index, see appendix B. 

2 7The layoff rate, which-was used in an earlier (1960) index of leading series, had not been 

available promptly enough in the past, but this shortcoming has now been removed. 

Consumption and Distribution. Two series are included from this economic 

process group. The orders series in the new leading index differs from that of the 

old index in that it includes nondurable goods industries with advance orders 

and excludes orders for capital goods and defense products. This exclusion 

removes the overlap with the series on contracts and orders for plant and 

equipment which existed in the old index. The orders component of the new 

index is expressed in constant (1967) dollars; of the old index, in current 

dollars.28 

The other series in this group is "vendor performance," which measures 

(inversely) the speed of deliveries as assessed by industrial purchasing agents. 

Delivery slowdowns spread in each expansion but begin to give way to speedups 

as the rate of economic growth and capacity utilization start falling, which 

typically occurs well before the general downturn. (The developments during 

contractions are reversed but analogous, with the vendor performance index 

reaching its trough well before the business upturn.) Despite limitations of 

coverage, this series is definitely useful as a constituent of the leading index 

because of favorable timing and other characteristics.29 

Fixed Capital Investment. Two series—net business formation and new 

building permits for housing—are retained unchanged from the old index. The 

third series, contracts and orders for plant and equipment, is now measured in 

1967 dollars. 

Inventory Investment. Variables in this category are particularly difficult to 

measure. Moreover, rapid inflation can cause large shifts in the method of 

inventory reporting and large errors in inventory measurement. Perhaps largely 

because of this, the contribution to the old leading index of the change in book 

value of manufacturing and trade inventories (BCD series 31) was in recent years 

highly erratic, hence, of dubious value. Nevertheless, changes in inventory 

investment have long been recognized as an important contributory factor in 

business cycles. It was therefore judged important to include a measure of 

inventory change in the new composite index despite the fact that the rule on 

current availability had to be relaxed somewhat to insure this inclusion. 

The inventory investment series used in the new composite index consists of 

the change in stocks "on hand" (corresponding to BCD 31) combined with the 

change in stocks "on order" —goods ordered for further processing or resale but 

not yet received. The second component, change in inventories on order, is 

approximated by the change in unfilled orders of manufacturers, excluding 

unfilled orders for capital goods and defense products. The reason for the 

selection of this series is that the concept of "desired" inventory, though not 

directly observable, is better represented by the total of stocks on hand and on 

order than by either of its two components.30 It is the on-order, not the 

on-hand, part of stocks that lends itself to prompt adjustments aimed to offset 

the unwanted changes in the overall inventory position. (The stock and unfilled 

order series from which the inventory change series has been computed were 

first deflated.) 

While the sum of the two components is less erratic than either of them alone, 

the series does not score well on smoothness. However, the timing of the change 

in total stocks on hand and on order is early enough to permit a tradeoff of 

shorter leads for more smoothness, and after some experimentation, a weighted 

4-month moving average was applied to this series.31 

Prices, Costs, and Profits. Two series from this group are included. We retain 

the stock price index, which continues to accumulate its long record of serving 

well as a leading indicator of business recessions and recoveries. Stock price 

changes both mirror and affect the general state of expectations, and they have 

rarely failed to anticipate any of the major cyclical movements in the economy. 

However, they also gave strong warning signals on two recent occasions (1962 

and 1966) when business activity slowed down without declining. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics index of industrial materials prices, contained 

in the old composite, either coincided or lagged at the business cycle turning 

points in 1958, 1969, and 1970. However, price indexes for materials continue 

to be much more sensitive to changes in demand than other price series, and 

their short-period rates of change typically begin declining early in the last year 

of a business expansion and begin rising several months before the end of a 

contraction. Like most other economic data after differencing, these series are 

volatile. However, they still have good leading characteristics when smoothed 

with short moving averages. A comparison of three related price indexes shows 

that, in this smoothed, percent-change form, the WPI for crude materials 

2 8The adjustments for the effects of price changes are, here and elsewhere, applied 

separately to each of the major parts of the aggregate. (See descriptions of the new series in 

appendix C.) 

2 9The drawback of the vendor performance data is that they are available only from a 

regional, not the national, survey of purchasing agents. However, because of the highly diversified industry of the area covered by the Chicago surveys, despite their limited coverage, these 

data have a good record as a cyclical indicator. Efforts are under way to explore the possibility of extending the national survey to cover this variable. 

30See Ruth P. Mack, Information, Expectations, and Inventory Fluctuations: A Study of 

Materials Stock on Hand and on Order, New York: NBER, 1967, for the development of this 

idea; also, Zamowitz, Orders, Production, and Investment—A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, 

New York: NBER, 1973, chapter 8, for further applications to inventories and orders for 

materials and supplies. 

3 1

 The moving averages must be "trailing" rather than centered so that the components of 

the leading index will be available promptly. Hence, they must have short periods so that they 

keep close to the drift of the data proper. We use a 4-month average with weights 1, 2, 2, 1. 

The lag is only 1 1/2 months. The scores for the series used in the construction of the index 

are based on the smoothed data and so reflect the greater smoothness of the transformed 

indicator but also its shorter leads and effectively lower currency. 

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excluding foods and feeds, has a small advantage, so this series is selected for 

inclusion in the composite index.32 Prices of raw materials required for 

manufacturing and construction activities react early to changes in the demand 

for output of these industries and promptly reflect pressures to build up or draw 

down raw materials inventories. Although it would be highly desirable to have a 

direct measure of such demand, e.g., new orders for crude materials, none is 

presently available, and the rate of change in prices is used as a substitute. 

Two components of the old index classed in Group VI had to be dropped. 

One—corporate profits after taxes—is available only quarterly and with long 

3 2The other two series are the industrial materials spot market price index (BCD series 23) 

and the "sensitive price index" recently compiled by the Federal Reserve Board. (See A. J. 

Yeats, "An Evaluation of the Predictive Ability of the FRB Sensitive Price Index," Journal of 

the American Statistical Association, December 1973, pp. 782-787.) All these indexes were 

analyzed in the form of percentage changes smoothed with trailing weighted 4-month moving 

averages. (See footnote 31.) 

delays and sequences of revisions. The other component—price-per-unit-oflabor-cost index (P/ULC)—performed well in the past both as a leading indicator 

generally and as a monthly approximation to quarterly profit margin data, but 

its recent behavior casts doubt upon the reliability of this series as a component 

of the leading index.33 

3 3The P/ULC index (BCD series 17) coincided at the business cycle troughs in 1958 and 

1961 and lagged at the 1970 upturn. It showed a very rapid rise in 1973-74. Since the cost of 

materials is a major ingredient of the value of gross output, its variations over time may have 

considerable effect on profit margins. Efforts were made to take into account the cost of 

materials as well as of labor in constructing alternative monthly price-cost indexes for manufacturing. Good monthly measures of price-cost relations would undoubtedly be very valuable 

for cyclical analysis and probably prediction as well, but they are very difficult to construct 

with available data. The results obtained so far are interesting but not yet adequate for the 

present purpose. Research efforts will continue in this area with the hope that an appropriate 

substitute for BCD 17 can be found and incorporated into the composite index. 

TABLE 2. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS 

AND THE OLD INDEX 

Line 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

Series in new index1 

Average workweek of production workers, 

manufacturing (I) 

Index of net business formation (IV) 

Index of stock prices, 500 common 

stocks (VI) 

Index of new building permits, private 

housing units (IV) 

Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted) (I) 

New orders, consumer goods and materials, 

1967 dollars (III) 

Contracts and orders for plant and 

equipment, 1967 dollars (IV) 

Net change in inventories on hand and on 

order, 1967 dollars (smoothed) (V) 

Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI 

of crude materials excluding foods and 

feeds (smoothed) (VI) 

Vendor performance, percent of companies 

reporting slower deliveries (III) 

Money balance (Ml), 1967 dollars (VII) 

Percent change in total liquid assets 

(smoothed) (VII) 

Series in old index1 

Same (I) 

Same (IV) 

Same (VI) 

Same (IV) 

Average weekly initial claims for 

unemployment insurance (inverted) (I) 

New orders, durable goods (III, IV) 

Same, current dollars (IV) 

Change in book value, manufacturing and 

trade inventories (V) 

Index of industrial materials prices 

(VI) 

Corporate profits after taxes (VI) 

Change in consumer installment debt 

(VII) 

Ratio, price to unit labor cost, 

manufacturing (VI) 

Reason for change 

Layoff rate leads more consistently at 

troughs; classified L,L,L. Initial 

claims classified L,C,L. 

New series avoids duplication with 

orders for equipment. Deflation needed 

for better cyclical performance since 

the late I960's. 

Deflation needed for better cyclical 

performance since the late I9601s. 

Concept of including stocks on order is 

better. Deflation is needed for 

better cyclical performance since the 

late I960's. 

Percent change is better than level. 

Leads are more consistent, especially 

since the late 1960's. 

Best available indicator of changes in 

delivery lags. Good record of timing 

and conformity. 

Important measure of the quantity of 

money in real terms. Good scores for 

indicator performance. 

Comprehensive measure of changes in 

wealth held in liquid form by private 

nonfinancial investors. 

Quarterly and tardy (low score for 

currency). 

Lacks timeliness. In recent period, 

very erratic and more nearly coincident 

than leading at troughs. 

Failed to lead at the last three 

business cycle troughs (1958-70). Work 

continuing on developing a satisfactory 

substitute. 

1Roman numerals in parentheses identify the economic process groups as given in footnote 7 of the text. 

BCD 1977 175 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CHART 1. COMPONENTS OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS 

* ♦ * * 

(NOV.) (OCT.) (JULY)(MAY ) (AUG.)(APR. ) (APR.)(FEB. ) (DEC.) (NOV.) 

P T P T PTP T p T 

rrm TTT i 

-11 i 

< ^f 

vj 

: 

s : 

H 

-5-

o 

-7i 

o 

ITT 

V* 

-6 

0 

- 5 

TIT 

o 

o 

©■ 

-3 

* 

- 4 

-13 -6 f 

Ol 

JJJJ 

: 

JUJ 

» 

-9 

i l l 

1 

/ 

' 0 

TTT 

O 

o 

o 

o 

0 

o 

o 

1 J 

\ V f 

ILL 

TTT TTT 

-4 

o 

- 8 

Of 

-10 

O 1 

- b 

1 

o 

TTT 

Q 

- 1 

/ 

> 

-4 

Q 

-2 

-7 

-5 

o 

JPL 5

¥ 

» 

- 8 

o 

9 

ILL ILL 

* 

-2 

TTT TTT 

- 2 1 

o 

-21 

-26 

O ! 

-25 

o 

* y r 

-30 

o ^ 

- 8 

111. ILL III 

M M < 1 M I M 11 H M N | M 1 [II I 11 M 

BCD 1. Average workweek of production 

workers, mfg. (hours) 

"O 

0 

i 

-12 

o i M 

-2 

TTT TTT 

0 

TTT 

o 

BCD 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (percent-inverted scale) 

Q 

- 1 

i 

-11 

o k 

o 

0 

o 

BCD 12. Index of net business formation (1967=100) 

O 

0 

1 

-12 

o 

-14 

0 

r-3 

i > 

- 1 

0 

0 

o 

0 

o 

TTT 

-22 

o 

TTT 

- 8 

o 

-10 

o 

TTT TTT 

=0-1 

-2 

Q 

e 

o -J> 

L 

X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 

1967 dollars 

100. Contracts and orders for plant and 

J 9 eqiipment, 19 

\AJ 

Ml 

K 

1 / » 

o

1 3 

Af * 

-17 

lllll 

-2 

Ml ill 

17 dollars (bil. dol.) 

J^i 

0 

A 

V" 

3 

-2 

111- III 

BCD 

III 

29. Index of ne 

[bil. dol.) 

O 

o 

w bui 

o 

> 

Eding 

private housing units 

III 

0 

III 

o 

III 

0 

c 

Ml ILL 

-2 | 

-11 

. 

permi 

» 

VL* J*\ 

s, 

1967=100) 

ILL 

-10 

0 

O 

KJ 

Q 

- 1 

^*A / 

f*jf 

* 

-10 

Ml AIL ILL 

TTT 

w 

/ ^ 

C 

ILL 

TTT 

O 

© 

o 

o 

0 

r^ * 

ULL 

TTT 

i 

V 

V 

TTT 

□ 

□ 

/ 

U 

1/ 

□ 

<Al 

A V □ j 

4 

a 

I I I II I 

41 

40 « 

CO 

CO 

Scale 

- 1 JB 

cale A 

CO 

3 

120 

110 o 

t o 

CO 

- 1 100 

- i 35 

^,, 1 

— 

^ 

30 <IU 

CM 

25 ^ 

JB 

20 3 

15 

12 

10 

8 3 

— 

6

 s 

° CO 

1 4 

1 200 

175 

150 

125 3 

100 * 

to 

o 

i CO 

75 

1 50 

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) in months 

from reference turning dates. 

 Revised reference turning dates, see page vii . 

176 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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CHART 1. COMPONENTS OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS—Continued 

(NOV.) (OCT.) (JULY)(MAY ) (AUG.HAPR. ) (APR.)(FEB. ) 

+30 

+20 

+10 .« 

0 4 

-10 * 

-20 

-30 

75 

50 « 

25 £ 

0 

- i +4 

- ] +2 «* 

I ■* 

I CO 

—I 0 *" 

- I -2 

- i 100 

60 « 

o 

CO 

- • 40 

200 

190 5 

H 180 s 

CO 

170 

1+1.5 

+1.0 «* 

CQ 

♦0.5

 8 

- > 0 

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in 

months from reference turning dates. 

♦Revised reference turning dates, see page vii . 

'■Weighted 4-term moving average (with weights, 1,2,2,1) placed a t the terminal month of the span. 

BCD 1977 177 

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Money and Credit Change in consumer installment debt, the only series from 

this category included in the old leading index, while without doubt an 

important indicator, is not retained mainly because of lack of currency and 

failure to lead at the recent business upturns.34 However, the new index 

contains two monetary indicators of major economic significance not previously 

used in the composite index. 

One of these new indicators, the supply of money in real terms, plays an 

important role in modern macroeconomic theory, whether one considers the 

monetarist or the post-Keynesian models. The observed cyclical behavior of the 

series used to represent empirically the theoretical concept of "real money 

balances" can be interpreted in ways consistent with either approach. In the late 

stages of business expansion, monetary growth shows a marked tendency to 

decline as banks are increasingly restricted by the available reserves in their 

ability to expand deposits given the demands of business firms and households 

for loans and currency.35 At the same time, the rise in consumer prices usually 

accelerates due to lagged effects of earlier monetary expansion and increasing 

cost associated with high rates of capacity utilization, rising wages, and other 

factors. (During contractions, the situation is reversed, with the rate of increase 

in money supply picking up early and the rate of increase in prices diminishing 

gradually.) The combined effect of these two phenomena results in consistent 

and early leads of real money balances, a fact that has been recognized time and 

again by economic analysts and forecasters. Having examined several monetary 

aggregates36 and alternative price deflators, we concluded, on the basis of timing 

and overall scores, that the series M1 deflated by the consumer price index 

(M1/CPI) qualifies best in this group. 

The other new indicator from Group VII reflects total liquid assets broadly 

defined (M7). The nominal aggregates of money and liquid assets are dominated 

by strong upward trends, and their cyclical variation tends to consist of 

accelerations and retardations, or phases of high and low growth rates. In other 

words, absolute declines in these series are rare and short. To bring out the 

cyclical elements in such variables, it is necessary to use them in the form, not of 

levels, but of rates of change. Since these rates of change are highly erratic when 

taken monthly (in part because the differencing magnifies measurement errors), 

we have again smoothed the series with short moving averages. When scored and 

compared on that basis, the percentage change in total liquid assets of the 

private domestic nonfinancial sector (M7) performs slightly better than the 

much narrower and more strictly monetary totals such as M1 and M2. All these 

totals are linked by substantial positive correlations, but M1 and M2show long 

leads that have occasionally exceeded the entire length of a business cycle 

contraction, making interpretation difficult. The leads of M7 were much shorter 

and less variable, averaging 6 months (as against 15 and 19 months for M1 and 

M2, respectively). Moreover, the relation between total liquid assets and nominal 

GNP was rather close and stable; e.g., the quarterly ratios of M7 to GNP varied 

in 1952-73 within the narrow range of 74.8 to 81.3 percent. In contrast, the 

ratio M1/GNP declined from 34.3 to 18.1 percent in the same period. (The ratios 

for M2, between 46 and 39 percent, were much more stable.) Lastly, the broader 

aggregates are presumably more endogenous.37 For all these reasons, the 

percentage change in M7, smoothed with a weighted 4-month moving average, 

was selected as the best leading indicator in this subset of the data under review. 

THE RECORD OF LEADING INDEXES 

AND THEIR COMPONENTS 

Table 3 presents the average timing measures and scores for the sample period, 

1947-70, for the leading indicators in both the new and old composite indexes. 

^Transformations such as the use of percentage changes and smoothing did not produce 

sufficiently improved results either for this or other credit-flow series, of which the change in 

commercial and industrial business loans from large banks is particularly interesting. 

3 5

 The Federal Reserve Board could, of course, try to offset such consequences of either its 

own past policies or developments in the private sector (as reflected in changes in the income 

velocity of money and the "money multiplier") by increasing bank reserves or reducing 

reserve requirements; but it may not wish to do so out of concern about inflation. Moreover, 

its interventions are unlikely to be always timely and adequate. 

3 6The estimates, compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 

include seven increasingly comprehensive aggregates, from 

M1 = currency plus demand deposits held outside the Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and 

the vaults of commercial banks, and 

M2 = M1 plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large negotiable certificates of 

deposit, to 

M7 = holdings by the private domestic nonfinancial sector of currency, deposits at commercial banks and nonbank thrift institutions, savings bonds, credit union shares, 

short-term marketable U.S. securities, and commercial paper. (A somewhat different 

version of this series which includes holdings by foreigners and the domestic financial 

sector has been used occasionally by others.) 

M1 and M2 are available for the entire period covered. M7 presently begins in 1952, but it 

probably will be possible to extend the series back to 1948. 

We are indebted to Stephen Taylor, Assistant Adviser, Division of Research and Statistics, 

Federal Reserve Board, for clarifying information concerning these data. 

3 7

 It may be important to recall that money in constant-dollar units is definitely an 

endogenous variable, whereas the nominal quantity of money, though also in part influenced 

by the internal working of the economy (decisions and changes emanating from the private 

sector), is in large measure exogenous, i.e., subject to controlling and correcting actions by 

monetary authorities. As noted early in this paper, it seems desirable not to include in the 

leading index any series that represent largely "policy indicators" or government activities. 

All series included in the new index38 lead on the average at both peaks and 

troughs (as shown by the medians in table 3, cols. 1-3). Indeed, virtually all 

individual timing observations for these indicators are leads, and each of these 

series is classified L, L, L. The same applies to most components of the index 

currently published (BCD 811), but one series (initial unemployment claims, line 

13) has a record of predominantly coincident timing at troughs and is classified 

L, C, L, and another (P/ULC, line 19) lacks consistency in its timing at recent 

business upturns and is classified L, U, L. The leads are generally much shorter at 

troughs than peaks, but these differences are on the average somewhat less 

pronounced for the new set of indicators. (Compare cols. 1 and 2, lines 21 and 22.) 

The scores for economic significance (col. 4) vary from 70 to 90 and average 

about 80 for the series in the new, as well as those in the old, index. Statistical 

adequacy (col. 5) is scored between 50 and 85 (on the average, 73 for the new 

index and 71 for the old index). The close correspondence in these two 

component scores is not surprising, since much the same standards were applied 

in these respects to the selection of indicators for the two indexes. On the 

whole, however, the scores of the series in the new index are higher than those in 

the current index, mainly as a result of improvements in timing, smoothness, and 

currency (cols. 6-10). The higher scores for the new index are attributable 

primarily to differences in composition, not in the applied criteria or weights. 

All series included in the new index have timing scores ranging from 76 to 89, 

while five components of the old index score below 76 (between 54 and 72). 

Closer examination shows that the improvements relate to the timing at both 

peaks and troughs but are larger for troughs. However, in some cases, the choice 

of early leaders with desirable timing characteristics imposes the cost of 

accepting lower conformity scores. Three of the series in the new composite 

index have conformity scores of less than 50 percent while only two in the old 

index have such scores. 

Definite gains in smoothness are posted for the components of the new index, 

which on the average rate 8 points higher in this regard than do the 

components of the old index. Although three of the new indicators are used in 

the form of short moving averages, which somewhat reduces their currency 

scores, the new index also has an overall advantage of earlier availability. Only 

one of the new series—change in stocks on hand and on order—will not be 

available early enough to be included in the latest value of the index to appear in 

each new issue of BCD. (It will be included in the recomputed index the 

following month.) In contrast, the first reading of BCD 811 was based on only 

eight series; three of the missing figures were added to that index after 1 month, 

and the last of the 12 components only after 2 to 4 months. This contributed an 

erratic element to the most recent values of the old index, thereby making them 

less useful for current analysis and at times even potentially misleading.39 

Table 3 concludes with a twofold summary: (1) Averages of timing and scores 

of the series included in the indexes (lines 21 and 22) and (2) median leads and 

scores of the indexes themselves (i.e., assessments of the indexes as two 

individual series; lines 23 and 24). Despite the advantage of having component 

series with longer leads at troughs, the new index does not anticipate business 

upturns by longer intervals than the old index.40 (Compare col. 2, lines 23 and 

24.) The overall scores of each index for timing, conformity, and smoothness are 

considerably higher than the corresponding average scores of their respective 

components, as would be expected.41 (Compare cols. 6-8 of lines 21 and 23, 

and 22 and 24.) Moreover, on balance the total scores favor the new index. 

Chart 2 shows the new index and the old index prior to reverse trend 

adjustment (BCD 811) for the period January 1948-April 1975. Shaded areas 

represent business cycle contractions, 1948-70, according to the revised NBER 

chronology. Numbers indicate the leads (-) in months from reference turning 

dates. Several observations help to compare the two indexes in the sample period 

through 1970: 

(a) The new index, like the old, shows two major "extra" movements—the 

declines in 1951 and 1966—connected with retardations but not contractions in 

aggregate economic activity. The subsequent expansions in 1952-53 and 1967-68 

are much more pronounced in the new index than in the old one, which would 

have facilitated current analysis. 

(b) The new index is visibly the smoother of the two; consequently, it gave 

fewer "false signals" of downturns or upturns.42 

3 8

 The staff of the Statistical Indicators Division of BE A compiled the data for the new 

index and made the necessary adjustments for price changes, etc. Members of the NBER staff 

computed the scores. In this connection, we wish to thank particularly Betty F. Tunstall and 

Evelyn J. Crawford, BEA, and Chantal Dubrin, NBER. 

3 9Two of the missing series are quite volatile and subject to large revisions. These are the 

series on change in manufacturing and trade inventories and change in consumer installment 

debt. The missing profit series, while much smoother, is quarterly—reported with lags of up to 

4 months and very tentative in its early estimates. The remaining missing series, net business 

formation, which is also included in the new composite index, will now be available in time 

for inclusion in the latest value of the index due to special efforts to speed up the release of 

the information. 

4 0The reason is that some of the new indicators with early timing at troughs are volatile, 

and their effective contribution to the index, after the standardization procedures used, is 

rather small. On the basis of mean rather than median timing, however, the new index does 

show a somewhat longer lead at troughs. The mean leads for the new index are 11.1,4.4, and 

7.7 months at peaks, troughs, and all turns, respectively; the corresponding leads for BCD 811 

are 11.1, 2.2, and 7.6 months. 

4 1

 For the other characteristics, direct scores cannot be assigned to a composite index; 

rather, the latter can only be evaluated according to the mean score of its components. 

42Despite the fact that smoothness scores for the two indexes are the same (MCD = 1), 

more sensitive measures of smoothness indicate that the frequency of directional change is 

20 percent less in the new index than in the old. 

178 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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(c) On most occasions, the new index turned upward more sharply and 

clearly before the end of a recession than did BCD 811. Also, it led at the 

business cycle troughs in 1958 and 1970, whereas the timing of the old index 

was coincident. (However, these leads of the new index were very short.) 

The single episode that stands out most clearly in the chart, however, is the 

postsample period (after 1970) and, particularly, the current recession. Although 

the NBER chronology is yet to be extended past 1970, and there is some 

disagreement among economists about the date of the last peak, most of the 

major coincident indicators, including real GNPand industrial production, point 

to the last quarter—about November—of 1973.43 The old index declined twice 

in 4 months before that data but then moved sharply upward through the first 7 

months of 1974. In contrast, the new index turned down in June 1973 and since 

then declined almost continuously through February 1975 (at a sharply 

accelerated rate after August 1974). Thus, it provided a timely warning of the 

current recession, and a much earlier one than BCD 811. 

The strength and persistence of recent inflation is, of course, the main reason 

for the noted discrepancy between the two indexes (as well as between other 

important real and nominal series). BCD 811 consists of seven nominal 

indicators (including both aggregates in current dollars and price indexes) and 

five real indicators (series in physical units, quantity indexes, and relative prices 

such as the P/ULC ratio). It contains no deflated series. The new index consists 

of three nominal indicators, four deflated series, and five other real indicators. 

The substitution of the new index for the old, therefore, amounts to a strong 

reduction of the dependence of the leading index on current-dollar aggregates. 

However, it is not advisable to deflate all current-dollar series in the leading 

index,44 and it is important that adjustments for price changes be applied with 

4 3The index of deflated coincident indicators (825) published in BCD would also agree 

with this date, as would the subset of real indicators used in the recent NBER review'of the 

reference chronology. See p. vii. 

4 4For an approach in this direction, see Carol S. Greenwald, "A New Deflated Composite 

Index of Leading Indicators," New England Economic Review, July/August 1973, pp. 3-17. 

caution to selected series only. This is so because such adjustments are often 

difficult and sometimes unneeded; they may worsen the conformity or change 

the timing of a series; more generally, they can cause errors or distortions in the 

data that are serious yet hard to identify. 

The new index is also shown with a reverse trend adjustment (see chart 3 and 

appendix B), which makes it comparable to the similarly adjusted index BCD 

810. The reverse trend adjustment adds to the upward movement of the index, 

making its trend equal to that of the index of coincident indicators. The 

adjusted indexes have shorter leads at peaks and longer leads at troughs than the 

indexes without trend adjustments. Although the reverse trend adjustment 

facilitates comparison between the leading and coincident indexes, the leading 

index has other uses which do not call for such adjustments. The relation 

between the movements of the leading index and its components can be readily 

understood only when the index is in its original form. 

In conclusion, it may be appropriate to remind the reader that no index of 

leading indicators (or, for that matter, any other economic forecasting device) 

can perform well if used mechanically and in isolation from other informational 

tools. Good results can only be expected if the current behavior of such an index 

is interpreted with experienced judgment and in light of other evidence. Even 

then, of course, various external factors can occasionally distort the relations 

between the leading, coincident, and lagging indicators of business expansions 

and contractions. Moreover, structural change in the economy, and possibly 

major unanticipated shifts in the inflation rates, will affect these relationships. 

Continuous study of the indicators, not limited to any short list of series used 

in the composite index, is needed to keep track of such developments and make 

best use of the approach.45 

4 5

 Proposals are being readied for submission to the BCD Technical Committee concerning 

the composition of the new coincident and lagging indexes and the full list of cyclical indicators. Subsequent issues of BCD, as well as the comprehensive report on the study, will include 

this material and various other results, including tests of the predictive performance of the 

new indexes. 

BCD 1977 179 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
TABLE 3. AVERAGE TIMING AND SCORES, NEW AND OLD INDEXES OF LEADING INDICATORS 

AND THEIR COMPONENTS, 1947-1970 

Line 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

21 

22 

23 

24 

Number and title 

of series1 

12 COMPONENTS 

OF NEW INDEX 

* 1. Average workweek, 

manufacturing (I) ... 

3. Layoff rate, mfg. 

X213. New orders, consumer 

goods and materials, 

1967 dollars (III).. 

32. Vendor performance 

(III) 

*12. Net bus. formation (IV) 

lOd. Contracts and orders, 

plant and equipment, 

1967 dollars (IV)... 

*29. New building permits, 

private housing 

units (IV) 

X170. Change in stocks on 

hand and on order, 

1967 dollars (V) 

*19. Stock price index, 

500 common 

X201. Pet. change, price 

index for crude 

X108. Money supply, 1967 

dol. (Ml/CPI) (VII) 

X136. Pet. change, liquid 

8 COMPONENTS OF BCD 

INDEX (BCD 811) 

*5. Avg. weekly unemploy. 

insurance claims 

*6. New orders, dur. goods 

industries (III, IV) 

*10. Contracts and orders 

for plant and equip. 

(IV) 

*31. Change in book value, 

mfg. and trade 

*23. Industrial materials 

price index (VI).... 

*16. Corp. profits after 

taxes, quarterly (VI) 

*17. Ratio, price to unit 

labor cost, mfg. (VI) 

*113. Change in consumer 

install, debt (VII). 

SUMMARY 

Average, 12 series, new 

Average, 12 series, BCD 811 

(lines 1, 5, 7, 9, 13-20)4 

leads 

(: 

Peaks 

(1) 

-12 

-11 

-6 

-6 

-11 

-9 

-13 

-5 

-9 

-15 

-10 

-6 1/2 

-12 

-10 

-10 

-10 

-10 

-11 

-22 

-8 

-9 1/2 

-10 1/2 

-11 

-10 

Median 

(-) or lags (+) 

In months) 

Troughs 

(2) 

-2 

-1 

-1 

-5 

-2 

-2 

-8 

-4 

-4 

-5 

-8 

-6 

0 

-2 

-2 

-2 

-2 

-2 

0 

-1 

-4 

-2 

-2 

-2 

All 

turns 

(3) 

-5 

-6 1/2 

-4 1/2 

-6 

-3 

-5 1/2 

-9 1/2 

-4 1/2 

-5 1/2 

-5 1/2 

-9 

-6 

-8 

-3 1/2 

-6 

-6 

-3 1/2 

-5 1/2 

-5 

-7 

-5 1/2 

-5 1/2 

-5 

-5 

Economic 

significance 

(4) 

70 

70 

80 

70 

80 

90 

90 

90 

80 

70 

90 

90 

80 

80 

90 

90 

70 

90 

80 

80 

81 

82 

81 

82 

Statistical 

adequacy 

(5) 

80 

80 

75 

75 

61 

50 

70 

53 

85 

80 

85 

81 

58 

80 

50 

70 

85 

73 

55 

90 

73 

71 

73 

71 

Timing 

(6) 

81 

79 

76 

79 

78 

87 

80 

83 

89 

82 

80 

84 

64 

82 

79 

72 

54 

78 

64 

72 

82 

74 

84 

78 

Scores2 

Conformity 

(7) 

60 

80 

70 

46 

59 

72 

55 

60 

51 

60 

41 

41 

80 

71 

68 

56 

41 

46 

70 

51 

58 

59 

78 

78 

Smoothness 

(8) 

60 

60 

60 

60 

80 

40 

80 

80 

80 

60 

100 

80 

60 

60 

40 

0 

80 

60 

80 

60 

70 

62 

100 

100 

Currency 

(9) 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

80 

40 

100 

66 

80 

66 

80 

80 

80 

53 

100 

0 

80 

53 

76 

72 

76 

72 

Total3 

(10) 

73 

76 

74 

69 

73 

72 

76 

71 

80 

72 

79 

75 

70 

76 

69 

61 

68 

64 

70 

69 

74 

71 

82 

80 

1Numbers preceded by asterisks (*) refer to series included in the current index (BCD 811). Numbers preceded by X refer to 

series not presently published in BCD. Roman numerals in parentheses identify the economic process groups. The numbering system 

shown in this table is preliminary. 

2A11 scores are listed on the 0-to-100 scale. Timing scores are for "all turns"; the separate peak and trough scores are not 

given. 

3Weighted average of scores in columns 4-9. For weights see table 1. 

4Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. 

5Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 21. 

6Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 22. 

180 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CHART 2. COMPARISON OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS 

WITH THE OLD INDEX (BCD 811) 

(NOV.) (OCT.) (JULY)(MAY) (AUG.) (APR.) (APR.) (FEB.) 

130 

120 

110 

100 -? 

J£ 

CO o 

90 " 

-» 70 

130 

120 

110 

H 100 ^ 

-

1 70 

1111 m 11111111111111 uli i 11111111111 iiiM 111111 usli 1111111111111111111111111111111111 ti ft 11111111111111111111 

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) in months 

from reference turning dates. 

♦Revised reference turning dates, see page vii. 

1This is not necessarily the peak but is the high for the available data. 

BCD 1977 181 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CHART 3. COMPARISON OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS 

WITH THE OLD INDEX (BCD 810) 

(NOV.) (OCT.) (JULYMMAY) (AUG.MAPR.) (APR.)(FEB.) (DEC.) (NOV.) 

p 

mm 

-io3 

-5 

O : 

[ILL 

TFT 

0 

-4 

0 

-5 

.lit 

TTT 

o 

III 

TTT 

O 

9 

O 

ILL 

TTT 

ILL 

p 

TTT 

-4 

o 

« 

-6 

9 

0 

i l l 

TTT 

Nl 

•6 

01 

6 

ILL 

TTT 

wind 

TTT 

JXOf 1 

-23 

OJ 

1 inde 

(BCI 

i l l 

ion; 

810) 

c 

i l l 

p 

TTT 

2leai 

leadi 

-8 

i 

LLLL 

TTT 

ingin 

* 

-2 

igind 

-2 

i l l 

TTT 

Jicatc 

- l 

o 

cator 

i n 

p 

TTT "TTT 

rs,reverse 

I 

^ : 

-2 

5, rev 

-3 

9 

i 

ILL 

irset 

i 

•2 

i l l 

TTT 

trend 

end a 

i l l 

TTT 

idjnst 

ljuste 

iLL 

TTT 

ed' 

J

2 

i l i 

TTT 

i l l 

TTT TTT TTT 

Index: 1967=400 

O 

< 

o 

1LU 

e 

i l l i i i 

p 

TTT 

-li : 

9 

-8 

o 

i i i 

nf 

-8 

-6 

i i i 

TTT 

i l l 

TTT 

i l l 

TTT 

O 

i l i 

TTT 

O 

i l l 

TTT] 

□ 

□ 

1LU 

180 

170 

160 

150 

140 

130 

120 

110 

100 

H 90 

70 

60 

-

1 50 

180 

170 

160 

150 

140 

130 

120 

110 

100 

90 

80 

70 

60 

50 

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTEs Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) in months 

from reference turning dates. 

♦Revised reference turning dates, see page vii. 

1 Original trend replaced by trend of deflated coincident index (BCD 825). 

sOriginal trend replaced by trend of undeflated coincident index (BCD 820). 

3This is not necessarily the peak but is the high for the available data. 

182 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
APPENDIXES 

A. Timing Classification 

To be classified as, say, leading (L) at either peaks or troughs or all turns, a 

series must earn a higher corresponding score for timing when viewed as L than 

under the next best treatment (normally, when viewed asC); have a probability 

of timing as L due to chance of less than 0.5, i.e., a positive score on that 

account; and have a median lead. The treatment of the series classified as C or Lg 

is analogous. When a series has a timing probability of 0.5 or more (in each of 

the three groups L, C, and Lg), then it is said to be "unclassified" (U). 

The all-turns scores are computed in either of two ways: (1) as a simple 

average of the separately derived peak and trough scores or (2) from the distribution of the observations at all business cycle turns covered. (See last line in the 

tabulation on p. 00.) The first procedure (average score) does not, and the 

second (combined score) does, assume that the observations at peaks and at 

troughs come from the same universe. A comparison of the two all-turns scores 

provides a test. For series that have the same timing classifications at peaks and 

at troughs, procedure (2) gives better results; that is, the combined score is 

higher than the average score.1 For series that have different classifications at 

B. Notes on the Construction of Composite Indexes 

Symmetrical changes. To assure symmetrical treatment of increases and decreases in the index components, the base for the percent changes computed in 

step 1 of the index construction (see text) is the average of the 2 months rather 

than just the initial month. For series that can assume negative values, arithmetic 

changes (first differences) are used. 

Standardization. For the new composite index, standardization factors for the 

individual components (step 2) are based on 60-term moving averages. In the old 

index, these standardization factors are based on average changes for the 

1953-72 period. The index standardization factor (step 4) is based on the period 

1948-72 for the old index and 1948-74 for the new index. 

Reverse trend adjustment. The leading composite index may also be subjected 

to an adjustment introduced several years ago by Shiskin.3 This adjustment 

modifies the trend of the leading index, making it equal to the trend of the 

composite index of coincident indicators. To make this adjustment, the trend of 

the leading index is computed by finding the average value of the earliest specific 

cycle (peak to peak) and the average value of the latest specific cycle, centering 

each average in the middle of the cycle, and applying the compound interest 

formula to the ratio of the latest to earliest specific cycle averages. The trend of 

the coincident index is determined in the same way. The difference between 

these two trends is then added to the standardized average changes in step 4, and 

these modified changes are cumulated and rebased as in step 5. 

For the new leading composite index, the reverse trend adjustment is based on 

the deflated coincident index (BCD series 825). When the new composite index 

peaks and at troughs, two mutually exclusive outcomes are possible: (a) the 

average score is higher than the combined one, in which case the series is classified U at all turns; (b) the combined score is the higher one and the series is 

classified according to the timing that produces that score. Where the timing 

patterns differ sharply, no meaningful classification exists (i.e., (a) obtains), and 

so we will often observe configurations such as L, Lg, U. But where short leads 

or lags prevail and the peak-trough contrasts are not so sharp, the outcome of 

our tests will be of type (b), e.g., L, C, L or C, Lg, C.2 

1

 In these cases, of course, the best combined score is for the same type of timing as 

prevails at peaks and at troughs. For example, a series classified as leading at both types of 

turn will also be so classified at "all turns." (It is then labeled "L , L, L"-with the symbols 

referring to peaks, troughs, and all turns, respectively.) 

2

 Also, series that are unclassified at one of the two types of turn may qualify for a timing 

designation when the comparisons at peaks and troughs are combined; hence, there are cases 

of U, C, C, or C, U, C. 

of coincident indicators has been constructed, it will provide the basis for a 

revised reverse trend adjustment of the new leading index. 

Problems. There are, of course, various ways to construct weighted composite 

indexes from groups of series, but many of the relevant options appear to have 

very similar outcomes.4 However, a few problems remain that deserve more 

attention. Average cyclical change (say, in the Henderson curve) may be preferable to the average change in the series proper as the divisor in the standardization procedure of step 2. The second standardization adjustment (in step 4) is 

probably best treated as optional. The reverse trend adjustments may be applied 

separately to groups of the index components with distinctly different trends 

rather than to the composite index as a whole. However, any such adjustments, 

by adding an upward drift to the index, can differentiate the movement of the 

latter from the balance of changes in the component series (e.g., though the 

majority of these series decline, the index may rise because of the added trend). 

Further work on these problems is needed and planned. 

'See his "Reverse Trend Adjustment of Leading Indicators," Review of Economics and 

Statistics, February 1967, pp. 45-49. Since that innovation, the composite indexes of leading 

indicators have been published in BCD with and without the reverse trend adjustment (as 

series 810 and 811). 

2

For example, the use of first differences in natural logarithms might be viewed as more 

"elegant" than that of symmetrical percentage changes. Standardization could take different 

forms, e.g., division of the series by their standard deviations. 

BCD 1977 183 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
D. Data for New Series and Indexes 

Year 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

Monthly 

Jan. 

... 

. •. 

76. 9 

68. 6 

73. 2 

79. 6 

75. 8 

80. 5 

72. 7 

83. 9 

86. 4 

81. 8 

71. 9 

85. 7 

84. 2 

77. 8 

87. 0 

86. 8 

91. 9 

99. 0 

106. 3 

95. 0 

104.4 

113.4 

101. 9 

103. 0 

110. 9 

125. 0 

117. 5 

90. 9 

7TT 

... 

... 38. 3 

35. 4 

39. 2 

44. 1 

43. 5 

47. 9 

44. 9 

53. 7 

57. 3 

56. 2 

51. 2 

63. 3 

64. 4 

1 61.7 

71. 5 

74. 0 

81. 1 

90. 7 

100.8 

93. 4 

106.4 

119.8 

111.5 

116.8 

130.5 

152.4 

148.5 

119. 1 

Feb. 

. . 

•.. 

75J..4 . 

68. 1 

73. 9 

78. 7 

76. 1 

80. 6 

73. 3 

85. 5 

85. 5 

80. 9 

71. 7 

87. 3 

82. 1 

78. 5 

87. 8 

87. 8 

92. 3 

98. 8 

107. 2 

95. 4 

105. 6 

112. 4 

101. 1 

104. 5 

112. 8 

125. 7 

117. 7 

90. 6 

NEW 

7T7 

... 

3 7..^ . 

35. 2 

39. 6 

43. 7 

43. 9 

48. 1 

45. 4 

54. 8 

56. 9 

55. 8 

51. 2 

64. 6 

63. 0 

62. 5 

72. 4 

75. 1 

81. 7 

90. 7 

102. 0 

94. 1 

107. 9 

119. 1 

111. 0 

118. 9 

133. 1 

153. 6 

149. 1 

119. 0 

Mar. Apr. May 

MEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 

. . 

... 

... 75J4 

67. 2 

74. 9 

78. 6 

76. 4 

81. 0 

73. 4 

85. 7 

85. 9 

80. 5 

71. 8 

88. 9 

80. 0 

80. 0 

. 87. 5 

88. 4 

92. 6 

99. 2 

107. 6 

95. 6 

105. 0 

111. 0 

100. 6 

106. 6 

115. 0 

124. 5 

119. 6 

91. 5 

:OMPOSITE 

7TT 

... 

3 7..^ . 

34. 9 

40. 3 

43. 8 

44. 1 

48. 5 

45. 6 

55. 1 

57. 3 

55. 7 

51. 4 

66, 0 

61. 6 

63. 8 

72. 3 

75. 7 

82. 2 

91. 3 

102. 7 

94. 6 

107. 6 

118. 0 

110. 8 

121. 7 

136. 0 

152. 7 

152. 0 

120. 6 

... 

. • • 

75. 7 

66. 8 

76. 5 

77. 7 

75. 9 

80. 6 

74. 1 

86. 0 

85. 7 

79. 6 

72. 2 

89. 1 

80. 0 

81. 9 

86. 8 

89. 3 

93. 9 

98. 8 

106. 6 

95. 9 

103. 5 

112. 3 

100. 7 

107. 1 

116. 4 

124. 1 

117. 4 

95. 3 

. •. 

,. 75. 3 

66. 4 

77. 8 

77. 2 

76. 4 

79. 7 

75. 4 

86. 4 

83. 6 

7 9 . * 

73. 9 

88. 9 

79. 9 

82. 9 

85. 0 

90. 6 

95. 3 

99. 5 

104. 8 

96. 9 

104. 9 

111. 9 

100. 8 

107. 9 

116. 3 

124. 9 

116.5 

June 

LEADING 

July Aug. Sept. Oct. 

INDICATORS, ORIGINAL TREND 

(1967-100 ) 

777 

. •. 

75. 4 

66. 2 

78. 7 

76. 0 

77. 3 

78. 2 

76. 2 

86. 7 

82. 8 

79. 9 

76. 1 

88. 2 

79. 6 

84. 0 

83. 8 

90. 0 

95. 3 

99. 5 

102. 7 

99. 2 

106. 1 

110. 9 

100.4 

107. 8 

H6. 3 

126. 6 

113. 8 

INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDI 

7TT 

... 

... 38. 0 

34. 8 

41. 3 

43. 5 

44. 0 

48. 4 

46. 1 

55. 5 

57. 3 

55. 2 

51. 9 

66. 4 

61. 8 

65. 5 

72. 0 

76. 8 

83. 7 

91. 2 

102. 0 

95. 2 

106. 4 

119. 7 

111. 3 

122. 7 

138. 1 

152. 6 

149. 7 

125. 9 

... 

• •. 

37. ..9 . 

34. 7 

42. 1 

43. 3 

44. 4 

48. 0 

47. 1 

56. 0 

56. 1 

55. 3 

53. 3 

66. 4 

61. 9 

66. 6 

70. 7 

78. 1 

85. 2 

92. 1 

100. 6 

96. 4 

108. 2 

119. 6 

111. 7 

123. 9 

138. 4 

154. 1 

149.0 

(1967=100 

• •. 

... 

38. ..1 . 

34. 7 

42. 7 

42. 8 

45. 1 

47. 3 

47. 7 

56. 3 

55. 7 

55. 7 

55. 0 

66. 1 

61. 8 

67. 6 

70. 0 

77. 8 

85. 4 

92. 4 

98. 9 

99. 0 

109. 8 

118. 9 

Hi. 6 

124. 1 

138.8 

156. 7 

146.0 

.. • 

74. ..3 . 

67. 6 

80. 3 

75. 3 

76. 7 

78. 0 

77. 1 

87. 8 

83. 1 

79. 6 

77. 4 

87. 9 

80. 0 

84. 0 

84. 6 

89. 4 

96. 1 

100. 3 

101. 3 

100. 6 

107. 7 

109. 5 

100. 5 

108. 3 

117. 3 

126. 5 

112. 9 

CATORS, 

) 

... 

.. • 

37. ..7 . 

35. 5 

43. 7 

42. 5 

44, 9 

47. 3 

48. 4 

57. 2 

56. 1 

55. 7 

56. 2 

66. 1 

62. 3 

67. 8 

70. 8 

77. 6 

86. 4 

93. 5 

97. 8 

100. 7 

111. 8 

117. 7 

H2. 1 

125. 1 

140. 5 

157.0 

145.3 

.. • 

... 

73. ..5 . 

69. 3 

81. 2 

74. 9 

78. 0 

76. 7 

77. 4 

87. 8 

82. 8 

78. 7 

79. 3 

86. 6 

79. 9 

85. 2 

85. 0 

89. 4 

96. 7 

100. 4 

99. 2 

103. 4 

107. 3 

108. 7 

100. 0 

107. 7 

119.6 

123. 9 

108.8 

REVERSE 

... 

... 

37^..3 . 

36. 5 

44. 3 

42. 4 

45. 7 

46. 6 

48. 8 

57. 4 

56. 1 

55. 2 

57. 7 

65. 3 

62. 4 

69. 0 

71. 4 

77. 7 

87. 2 

93. 9 

96. 1 

103.8 

111.7 

117. 3 

111.8 

124. 7 

143. 7 

154.3 

140. 3 

•. • 

* • • 

72.• .6 . 

71. 2 

79. 7 

75. 5 

79. 7 

74. 2 

78. 2 

88. 5 

83. 1 

77. 3 

80. 9 

85. 7 

80. 0 

84. 1 

85. 5 

90. 5 

98, 5 

loi.o 

98. 3 

103. 7 

109. 4 

108. 4 

100. 2 

107. 7 

121. 4 

122. 3 

104.3 

... 

.. * 

. . t 

72. 2 

71. 6 

79. 7 

75. 0 

79. 4 

73. 5 

80. 2 

87. 8 

83. 4 

75. 4 

82. 0 

83. 8 

79. 4 

85. 5 

85. 0 

91. 1 

98. 7 

101. 9 

96. 6 

104. 1 

111. 5 

108. 0 

99. 5 

109. 1 

123. 0 

122. 4 

100.2 

TREND ADJUSTED 

• . • 

37. ..0 . 

37. 6 

43. 7 

42. 9 

46. 9 

45, 3 

49. 4 

58. 0 

56. 4 

54. 4 

59, 0 

64. 8 

62. 7 

68. 3 

72. 0 

78, 9 

89, 0 

94. 7 

95. 5 

104. 4 

H4. 2 

U7. 3 

U2. 4 

125. 1 

146. 3 

152. 8 

135. 0 

... 

• » • 

,, 36. 9 

37. 9 

43. 8 

42. 7 

46. 8 

45. 0 

50. 8 

57. 7 

56. 8 

53. 2 

60. 0 

63. 6 

62. 4 

69. 7 

71. 8 

79. 7 

89. 5 

95. 8 

94. 2 

105. 1 

116. 7 

117. 2 

111. 9 

127. 2 

148. 6 

153. 2 

130. 1 

Nov. 

.. • 

70. ..8 . 

71. 9 

79. 0 

74. 8 

79. 6 

72. 5 

81. 9 

87. 8 

83. 1 

73. 5 

84. 1 

83. 0 

78. 5 

86. 8 

85. 9 

91. 3 

99. 2 

102. 8 

95. 7 

104. 3 

112. 2 

105. 8 

99. 6 

109. 1 

123. 5 

121. 7 

96.8 

.. • 

... 

36. ..3 . 

38. 2 

43. 5 

42. 7 

47. 1 

44. 5 

52. 1 

57. 8 

56. 8 

52. 0 

61. 7 

63. 1 

61. 9 

70. 9 

72. 8 

80. 1 

90. 3 

96. 9 

93. 5 

105. 7 

117. 8 

115. 1 

112. 3 

127. 6 

149. 7 

152. 9 

126.0 

Dec. 

.. • 

69. ..8 . 

72. 2 

78. 5 

75. 3 

80. 0 

72. 6 

82. 4 

87. 0 

82. 9 

72. 4 

83. 7 

84. 3 

77. 6 

86. 9 

86. 1 

91. 7 

98. 7 

104. 1 

95. 2 

105. 9 

113. 0 

104. 1 

101.8 

110. 1 

125. 0 

119.8 

94. 8 

• * • 

35. ..9 . 

38. 5 

43. 4 

43. 1 

47. 5 

44. 6 

52. 5 

57. 5 

56. 8 

51. 4 

61. 6 

64. 3 

61. 4 

71. 2 

73. 2 

80. 8 

90. 1 

98. 5 

93. 3 

107.6 

119. 0 

113. 6 

115. 2 

129. 1 

152. 0 

150. 9 

123.8 

Quarterly 

1 Q 

... 

. •. 

75. ..9 . 

68. 0 

74. 0 

79. 0 

76. 1 

80. 7 

73. 1 

85. 0 

85. 9 

81. 1 

71. 8 

87. 3 

82. 1 

78. 8 

87. 4 

87. 7 

92. 3 

99. 0 

107. 0 

95. 3 

105. 0 

112. 3 

101. 2 

104. 7 

112. 9 

125. 1 

118. 3 

91.0 

• • * 

,,, 

37. 9 

35. 2 

39. 7 

43. 9 

43. 8 

48. 2 

45. 3 

54. 5 

57. 2 

55. 9 

51. 3 

64. 6 

63. 0 

62. 7 

72. 1 

74. 9 

81. 7 

90. 9 

101. 8 

94. 0 

107. 3 

119.0 

Ul. l 

119. 1 

133. 2 

152. 9 

149. 9 

119. 6 

II Q III Q IV Q 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

... 

•. • 

75. 5 

66. 5 

77. 7 

77. 0 

76. 5 

79. 5 

75. 2 

86. 4 

84. 0 

79. 7 

74. 1 

88. 7 

79. 8 

82. 9 

85. 2 

90. 0 

94. 8 

99. 3 

104. 7 

97. 3 

104. 8 

111. 7 

100. 6 

107. 6 

116. 3 

125.2 

115. 9 

•. • 

... 73. 5 

69. 4 

80. 4 

75. 2 

78. 1 

76. 3 

77. 6 

88. 0 

83. 0 

78. 5 

79. 2 

86. 7 

80. 0 

84. 4 

85. 0 

89. 8 

97. 1 

100. 6 

99. 6 

102. 6 

108. 1 

108. 9 

100. 2 

107. 9 

119. 4 

124. 2 

108. 7 

... 

• *. 

70. ..9 . 

71. 9 

79. 1 

75. 0 

79. 7 

72. 9 

81. 5 

87. 5 

83. 1 

73. 8 

83. 3 

83. 7 

78. 5 

86. 4 

85. 7 

91. 4 

98. 9 

102. 9 

95. 8 

104. 8 

112. 2 

106. 0 

100. 3 

109. 4 

123. 8 

121. 3 

97. 3 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

... 

. •. 

38. 0 

34. 7 

42. 0 

43. 2 

44. 5 

47. 9 

47. 0 

55. 9 

56. 4 

55. 4 

53. 4 

66. 3 

61. 8 

66. 6 

70. 9 

77. 6 

84. 8 

91. 9 

100. 5 

96. 9 

108. 1 

119. 4 

111. 5 

123. 6 

138. 4 

154. 5 

148. 2 

... 

37. ..3 . 

36. 5 

43. 9 

42. 6 

45. 8 

46. 4 

48. 9 

57. 5 

56. 2 

55. 1 

57. 6 

65. 4 

62. 5 

68. 4 

71. 4 

78. 1 

87. 5 

94. 0 

96. 5 

103. 0 

112. 6 

117. 4 

112. 1 

125. 0 

143. 5 

154. 7 

140. 2 

... 

... 

36. 4 

38. 2 

43. 6 

42. 8 

47. 1 

44. 7 

51. 8 

57. 7 

56. 8 

52. 2 

61. 1 

63. 7 

61. 9 

70. 6 

72. 6 

80. 2 

90. 0 

97. 1 

93. 7 

106. 1 

117. 8 

115. 3 

113. 1 

128. 0 

150. 1 

152. 3 

126. 6 

Annual 

777 

... 

73. ..9 . 

68. 9 

77. 8 

76. 6 

77. 6 

77. 3 

76. 9 

86. 7 

84. 0 

78. 3 

77. 1 

86. 6 

80. 1 

83. 1 

85. 8 

89. 7 

95. 8 

100. 4 

101. 8 

100. 0 

107. 6 

109. 7 

100. 6 

107. 4 

118. 1 

124. 0 

110. 0 

... 

... 

37. 4 

36. 2 

42. 3 

<*3.1 

45, 3 

46. 8 

48. 2 

56. 4 

56. 6 

54. 6 

55. 8 

65. 0 

62. 3 

67. 0 

71. 7 

77. 7 

86. 0 

93. 5 

98, 1 

100. 0 

1U. 5 

117. 8 

112. 0 

123. 9 

141. 3 

153. 6 

1^1.2 

184 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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NEW COMPOSITE INDEXES OF COINCIDENT 

AND LAGGING INDICATORS 

by Victor Zarnowitz and Charlotte Boschan 

As part of the comprehensive review of cyclical indicators conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), new 

composite indexes of leading, roughly coincident and lagging 

indicators have been constructed in an effort to improve these 

tools of current business analysis and forecasting.1 Major 

changes in the economy and new and revised statistical data and 

analytical techniques require, from time to time, reappraisals of 

this as well as other systems of economic intelligence. An article 

published in this report a few months ago described the historical background, objectives, and methods of the study and provided information on the composition, construction, and record 

of the leading indexes.2 This paper extends the analysis to the 

coincident and lagging indexes and their components. 

Many economists engaged in the task of interpreting current 

and predicting near-future business conditions find it useful to 

know which time series have relatively pronounced and consistent cyclical characteristics, what these characteristics are 

according to historical measures, and, in particular, what the 

timing sequences among these series tend to be. Studies of 

indicators show that the principal leading, coincident, and 

lagging series represent variables that are important within the 

economic system, particularly for the business-cycle processes, 

and that the relationships among them are consistent with 

general economic reasoning as well as empirical evidence. The 

preferred indicators are series that are judged to be of high 

economic significance and that are also well qualified according 

to other criteria: statistical adequacy, consistency of cyclical 

timing, conformity to general business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and currency. Various measures are used to 

quantify these characteristics and the results are combined into 

component and total scores according to a formal, detailed 

weighting scheme.3 This method provides a systematic and 

mostly objective and replicable way to evaluate the usefulness 

of time series as leading or confirming indicators and to estimate their prognostic or diagnostic significance. 

As a result of this scoring and screening, we find many indicators whose past movements tend to show certain recurrent 

patterns and relationships. These observed regularities are consistent with not one but several plausible and not mutually 

exclusive hypotheses about why business cycles occur and how 

they develop. Indeed, there is ample empirical support for the 

view that each cycle has some causes and aspects that are 

unique to it, along with many that it shares with other cycles. 

How individual indicators perform on a particular occasion, 

therefore, depends not only on the persistent tendencies within 

the system but also on the then prevailing distinct conditions 

and events. No single indicator can be depended on all the time; 

indeed, the need to monitor a large variety of indicators is 

widely recognized by business analysts and forecasters. Combining selected indicators into composite indexes can help in 

1

 Major parts of the project were carried out by members of the 

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and substantial contributions were made by the staff of the Statistical Indicators Division of 

BEA. This staff is under the immediate direction of Feliks Tamm, Chief 

of the Division, and is under the general supervision of Beatrice N. 

Vaccara, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections. The 

study benefitted from the advice, suggestions, and guidance of the BCD 

Technical Committee under the chairmanship of Edgar R. Fiedler, U.S. 

Department of the Treasury. The authors also gratefully acknowledge 

the helpful advice of Geoffrey H. Moore of NBER and Julius Shiskin of 

the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

2V. Zarnowitz and C. Boschan, "Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation 

and New Leading Indexes," Business Conditions Digest (BCD), May 1975. 

3

Zarnowitz and Boschan, op. cit., pp. vi-viii. 

this task, but the main reason for using such indexes is that they 

are likely to produce more true and fewer false signals than any 

of their individual components. This is so not only because 

business cycles have multiple cases and symptoms, but also 

because much of the independent measurement errors and other 

"noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as 

a whole. 

PRINCIPAL COINCIDENT INDICATORS 

Business cycles have been defined as recurrent sequences of 

cumulative expansions and contractions in various economic 

processes which are both sufficiently diffused and sufficiently 

synchronized to show up as major fluctuations in comprehensive measures of employment, production, income, and 

sales.4 Accordingly, turning points in these series have served as 

the primary observations for estimating the reference dates of 

business cycle peaks and troughs. It is obvious that the series so 

used are, as a group, necessarily roughly coincident, although 

occasional deviations from coincident timing do occur for the 

individual components of the group. 

Although we did not decide from the outset that only those 

indicators which are measures of aggregate economic activity5 

should be included in the coincident index, all series actually 

selected do represent such measures. With the adopted strict 

requirements of proper cyclical timing at both peaks and 

troughs and other attributes, it turned out that, of the many 

indicators examined, only the comprehensive series on production, employment, real income, and real sales qualified as components of the overall coincident index. 

Nominal aggregates, such as national income and product, 

which played a large role in historical business-cycle analysis,6 

were excluded from the new composite index. These indicators 

are, of course, still important and in need of being continually 

observed. However, it would not be helpful to include currentdollar series in the new index of coincident indicators. Their 

failure to conform to the recent recessions was widespread, reflecting the intensity and persistence of contemporaneous inflation. And, unfortunately, the possibility that such recessionscum-inflation might recur cannot be ruled out. 

Specifically, nominal GNP did not contract at all in the 1970 

recession and had only one short decline during the 1974-75 

recession (in the first quarter of 1975). Final sales (GNP minus 

change in business inventories) also dipped but once, in 1958, 

4

 Business cycles of historical experience vary greatly in duration, but 

as a rule several years are required for the cumulative movements to complete a round from peak to peak or trough to trough. For more detail 

and references to literature, see V. Zarnowitz, "The Business Cycle Today: 

An Introduction," in Zarnowitz, ed., The Business Cycle Today, New 

York: NBER, 1972, p. 2 ff. 

5Aggregate economic activity, like so many general concepts in 

economic analysis, is difficult to define precisely. It is an open concept 

and can be established only by approximations in empirical research. 

There is no single time series that measures it adequately, only a variety 

of statistical data representing some of its different aspects. On the interpretation and uses of that notion in defining and dating business cycles, 

see Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles, 

New York: NBER, 1947, pp. 3-8, 71-76. 

6

 In fact, they were often cast in the star roles. Thus, Burns and 

Mitchell, op. cit., pp. 72-73, note that GNP at current prices or, better, 

the part of GNP that "passes through the market" (i.e., excluding imputations) would be an acceptable measure of aggregate economic activity if 

a satisfactory monthly or quarterly series of this type were available for 

a sufficiently long time period. 

BCD 1977 185 

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and not since. Similarly, personal income had its last, mild contraction in 1957-58. Its continued rise thereafter, through the 

recessions of 1960,1970, and 1974-75, reflects to a large extent 

structural changes in the economy and the labor force as well as 

the workings of automatic stabilizers. Manufacturing and trade 

sales declined slightly or flattened during the 1970 recession 

and fell more decisively but briefly late in 1974. Only the manufacturing components of that series conformed well to the 

cyclical movements in the economy after 1960; retail store sales 

trended sharply upward throughout. In sum, the current-dollar 

aggregates of income and sales have recently been so dominated 

by upward trends reflecting the general price and wage increases 

and structural and institutional changes (growth of the cyclically more stable sectors of the economy and massive transfer 

payments) that they have become much less sensitive to slowdowns and declines in aggregate production and employment. 

As a result, these series do not rate well on the record of their 

recent cyclical performance, and even their overall scores, which 

refer to the sample period 1947-70, are reduced, in some cases 

seriously. 

Four aggregates in real terms definitely qualify as components of the coincident index: Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey; index of industrial 

production; personal income, excluding transfer payments, in 

1967 dollars; and manufacturing and trade sales in 1967 dollars. 

These are, in retrospect and prospect, the best coincident indicators in the following economic-process groups: I. Employment and Unemployment; II. Production and Income; and III. 

Consumption and Distribution. Our analysis and scoring disclose no other appropriate choices for the index of indicators 

with coincident timing at both peaks and troughs of business 

cycles, in either these or other groups. This may seem surprising 

in view of the high degree of simultaneity in the system of 

economic relationships, the pervasiveness of cyclical movements, and the large number of alternatives considered in our 

selection procedure. The explanation lies in the strictness of the 

requirements to be met by the component series (nearly coincident timing and high scores for a variety of characteristics) 

and by the index as a whole (comprehensive coverage with a 

minimum of duplication), plus the fact that the dispersion of 

cyclical timing in monthly data is quite pronounced, despite the 

strong tendency for many series to move together. 

Each of the four aggregates has some highly cyclical components (e.g., employees in manufacturing; production of durable 

goods; wages and salaries in the goods-producing sector, i.e., 

mining, manufacturing, construction; manufacturers' shipments) and other components that are much less cyclical and 

would not, by themselves, qualify for inclusion in the index. 

Using the more cyclical components alone would unduly restrict the coverage and reduce the representativeness of the 

index (with manufacturing being overemphasized, and increasingly so over time); also, the components of the index would 

then resemble each other rather too closely. On the other hand, 

using the more cyclical series along with the corresponding 

aggregates would make for too much duplication. 

Further discussion of the selected series and some of those 

that were screened out will explain our decisions on the makeup of the index in more detail. Table 1, which shows the average timing and scores for the new and old indexes of coincident 

indicators and their components, sums up an important part of 

the underlying evidence and explains, in the notes, some of the 

underlying procedures. Chart 1 illustrates the behavior of the 

components of the indexes since 1947. 

Employment and Unemployment 

The employment component in the old coincident indexes, 

employees on nonagricultural payrolls (BCD series 41), is without doubt the best indicator in this group and is retained for the 

new index. The aggregate from the labor force survey, persons 

engaged in nonagricultural activities (BCD series 42), has substantially lower scores on conformity and smoothness as well as 

timing (which lacks consistency because leads are mixed with 

rough coincidences at peaks). Similarly, man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (BCD 48) shows too many leads at 

peaks (presumably reflecting the early timing of the average 

hours of work per week) to score well as a coincider. In addition, we have analyzed 12 series on the numbers of employees 

or production workers in the sectors of the economy that are 

particularly sensitive cyclically (manufacturing, mining, construction, transportation, public utilities, and various combinations of these industries) and found that none of these performs 

better than BCD 41, which, of course, also has the advantage of 

broader coverage.7 

The total unemployment rate (BCD 43), a component of the 

old coincident indexes, is not included in the new index. This 

series is certainly one of the principal and most widely used 

measures of the economy's performance.8 However, the overall 

unemployment rate, like most of the component rates for individual sex, age, and race categories, tends clearly to lead at 

peaks and lag at troughs of business cycles, and its timing classification is L, Lg, U (undefined for both types of turn combined). This is so because employment typically rises slowly in 

both the initial and the late stages of a business expansion, 

whereas the labor force grows at a fairly steady pace.9 

Production and Income 

The index of industrial production (BCD 47) reflects largely 

changes in manufacturing output, which on the whole remains 

highly sensitive to cyclical fluctuations in demand. However, 

the relative importance of this sector has for some time now 

been declining, whereas the cyclically more stable service industries have been gaining. Today, a downturn of industrial production will not pull the rest of the economy promptly into a 

recession given the rising trend in the large services sector. Thus, 

structural change in the industrial composition of GNP probably explains the shift from the closely coincident timing of the 

production index at peaks in the pre-World War II period to the 

short leads in the 1948-69 period. At troughs, on the other 

hand, no change in timing would be expected, and none has 

occurred.10 Overall, the cyclical timing of the index remains 

approximately coincident, as would be expected. 

Personal income qualifies for inclusion in the composite 

index if and only if it is expressed in constant dollars, as already 

7

 Employment in manufacturing and other goods-producing industries 

has led at business cycle peaks of the period 1948-69 and, consequently, 

so has (by much shorter intervals) total nonagricultural employment 

through the 1950's. More recently, however, and particularly in 1974, 

nonagricultural employment as a whole lagged at peaks, apparently mainly 

because of labor-hoarding in the service industries. (The long lag in 1974 

was perhaps induced by the special events and uncertainties of the time -

energy crisis, supply constraints, etc. Employment in goods-producing 

industries started moving down gently at the beginning of 1974, total employment according to the establishment survey rose, if slowly, through 

October 1974.) 

8

 Unemployment statistics, of course, measure economic inactivity 

rather than activity, hence their conformity to business cycl'es is inverse. 

9

The reasons why employment recovers relatively slowly lie in the 

initial uncertainties about the prospects for an enduring expansion and 

the concurrent rises in the average workweek and labor productivity. The 

reasons why employment grows less in late than in mid-expansion stages 

lie in either demand slowdowns or supply constraints, or both. 

1 0

 In 1920-37, industrial production had roughly coincident timing at 

all but one of the five business cycle peaks (median, O); in 1948-69, it 

had three rough coincidences and two longer leads (median, -3 months). 

At troughs, roughly coincident timing was the rule in both 1921-38 and 

1949-70 (with only one exception, in the earlier period). 

186 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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TABLE 1. AVERAGE TIMING AND SCORES, NEW AND OLD INDEXES OF 

COINCIDENT INDICATORS AND THEIR COMPONENTS, 1947-1970 

Line 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

Number and title of series1 

Components of New Index 

*41. Number of employees on 

nonagricultural payrolls.. 

*47. Index of industrial 

X234. Personal income, less 

transfers, deflated by PCE. 

56d. Manufacturing and trade 

Components of BCD Indexes 

(BCD 820 and 825) 

*43. Unemployment rate, total 

52d. Personal income, deflated 

by PCE 

*56. Manufacturing and trade 

sales 

Average, 4 series, new index 

(lines 1-4)7 

Average, 5 series, BCD 820 (lines 

1, 2, 5, 6, 8) 8 

Average, 5 series, BCD 825 (lines 

1, 2, 4, 5, 7) 9 

New index1° 

BCD 82011 

BCD 82512 

Median 

leads (-) or lags (+) 

(in months) 

Peaks 

(1) 

-2 

-3 

0 

-3 

-7 

0 

0 

-3 

-2 1/2 

-3 

-3 

-1 

-1 

-2 

Troughs 

(2) 

0 

0 

-1 

0 

+3 

-2 

-1 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

All 

turns 

(3) 

0 

-1/2 

-1/2 

-1/2 

-1/2 

-1 

-1/2 

-1 

-1/2 

-1/2 

-1/2 

0 

0 

-1/2 

Scores2 

Economic 

significance 

(4) 

100 

90 

90 

90 

90 

90 

90 

90 

92 

92 

92 

92 

92 

92 

Statistical 

adequacy 

(5) 

78 

72 

70 

65 

78 

70 

70 

65 

71 

73 

73 

71 

73 

73 

Timing3 

(6) 

89 

90 

74 

90 

5 ? 

611 

76 

92 

86 

58 

70 

92 

91 

92 

Conformity 

(7) 

80 

85 

64 

75 

80 

30 

48 

75 

76 

70 

74 

88 

88 

88 

Smoothness 

(8) 

100 

100 

100 

80 

80 

100 

100 

80 

95 

92 

92 

100 

100 

100 

Currency 

(9) 

80 

80 

80 

53 

80 

80 

80 

53 

73 

75 

75 

73 

75 

75 

Total4 

(10) 

88 

86 

78 

78 

562 

656 

76 

79 

83 

74 

78 

87 

87 

88 

1Numbers preceded by asterisks (*) refer to series included in the original index (BCD 820). The underlined numbers refer to series 

included in the deflated index (BCD 825). 

2A11 scores are listed on the 0-to-100 scale. 

3These are scores for all turns; the separate peak and trough scores are not given. All series are scored on the assumption of 

roughly coincident timing at peaks and troughs. 

4Weighted averages of scores in columns 4-9. The weights are economic significance, statistical adequacy, and conformity—16.7 percent each; timing, 26.7 percent; smoothness, 13.3 percent; currency, 10 percent. See BCD, May 1975, pp. vi-viii, for further detail. 

5When the unemployment rate is treated as leading at peaks and lagging at troughs (L, Lg), instead of roughly coincident (C) at all 

turns, its timing score is 75 and its total score is 80. 

6Personal income scores better—34 for timing, 62 overall—when treated as roughly coincident at peaks and leading at troughs (C, L, 

U—timing for both types of turn combined is undefined). 

7Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. 

8Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. Crediting series 43 and 52 for noncoincident timing (see footnotes 5 and 6) would raise 

the timing score (col. 6) to 76 and the total score (col. 10) to 79. 

9Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. Crediting series 43 for noncoincident timing (see footnote 5) would raise the timing 

score (col. 6) to 84 and the total score (col. 10) to 82. 

10Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 9. 

11Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 10. 

12Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 11. 

noted.11 In addition, improved results are obtained by eliminating transfer payments, which contain large countercyclical 

elements such as unemployment compensation. Exclusion of 

transfer payments (a) adds to the amplitudes of declines in real 

personal income during business contractions, which increases 

the cyclical conformity of the series, and (b) makes the data 

appreciably smoother.12 The effects of the deduction of trans1 1

 Specifically, the adjustment for price changes is done here by means 

of the deflator for personal consumption expenditures. We tested the 

possibility that using the consumer price index would lead to improvements. Whether CPI or the PCE deflator is used matters very little 

empirically (the only noticeable difference is that the use of CPI results 

in a slightly better conforming behavior of real personal income during 

the 1970 recession), but on conceptual grounds the latter is preferable, 

for this purpose, in terms of weights and coverage. 

12This shows up in a reduction of the ratio f/C", whereTis the average 

month-to-month percentage change, without regard to sign, in the irregular component and fj is the same for the cyclical component. T/C 

is .85 for real personal income including transfer payments; it is .74 for 

real personal income excluding transfer payments. 

fers on cyclical timing are slight (limited to the single episode of 

the 1969-70 recession and somewhat uncertain). It can be 

argued that one should judge the series excluding transfer payments to be of somewhat lower economic significance, since 

such payments constitute an important source of income to, 

and an important factor affecting the behavior of, many households. Even if we allowed for this, however, we would still find 

it advisable to use real personal income excluding transfer payments (series X234) as the component of the coincident index. 

The question of whether real GNP should be included in the 

index was carefully examined. GNP in 1958 dollars is the most 

comprehensive of the widely used measures of aggregate 

economic activity, and it scores well as a coincident indicator at 

both peaks and troughs. On the other hand, it is only available 

quarterly and is subject to considerable revisions. An analysis of 

experimental indexes that alternatively do and do not include 

real GNP shows that inclusion of that series would cause 

frequent revisions in the index, which, though small, are 

nevertheless apt to be troublesome. Moreover, the alternative 

indexes (with and without real GNP) are remarkably similar. It 

BCD 1977 187 

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CHART 1. COMPONENTS OF THE COINCIDENT COMPOSITE INDEXES 

(NOV .) (OCT.) JULY)(MAY) AUG.) (APR.) (APR.)IFEB.I (DEC.) (NOV.) 

P T P T PTP T P T 

lll|lll][l ( lll|lll|I M 

Con iponei 

-2 

o 

0 : 

- 1 

o 

its of 

0 

0 

* 

0 

-3 

+1 

< I 

-3 

the n 

o 

ew in dex: 

TTT 

-3 

o 

+1 

tt 

TIT 

'■ O 

:

 +3 

I *' 

- 1 

TTT TTT TTT TTT TTT TTT TTT TTT TTT TTT TTT 

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions) 

-5 

0 

; o 

*+i 

0 

4 

1 9 

0 

J 

47. Index of industrial production (1967=100) 

-6 

o 

0 

0 

i 

-3 

b 

9 

0 

i 

X234. Personal income less transfers, 1967 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol. 

0 

- 1 

d 

56D 

-4-

o 

- 1 

. M< 

4 

-5 

nufac uring 

Components of the old index not in the new index: 

- l * 

0 

-3 

o 

U^-io 

i 

LLLL 

t 

Ml 

tt. 

-3 

0 

0 

• 0 

liiL i l l 

> 

o 

ALL ILL 

+3 

tt 

0 

a 

- l 

* 

- l 

o 

+3 

J1L 

0 

+4. 

till ILL 

0 

6 

and 

-6 

0 

0 

rade 

0 

3*" 

-2 

[ 

sales, 1967 

-3 

» 

dolla 

- 1 

s (bi .dol. ) 

52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 

56. 

0 

0 

Mai 

-6 

o 

-2 

ufacti 

P 

- 1 

I 

iring and tr 

i . 

- 3 

» 

ade s 

ft 

- 1 

J 

43. Unemployment rate, total 

I I I 

o 

111 

0 

:+3 

JUJ 

1 

-2 

JJU 

» 

': 0 

+3 

H.J.IM 

ales i bil. d il.) 

TTT 

[percent—inverted scale) 

ILL i l l I l l ILL ILL 

TTT 

ILL 

TTT 

ILL 

TTTprr 

+3 

-3 

<> 

0 

* 

TTT 

0 

-2 

o] 

c 

0 

-2 

-7 

o 

11L 

«*** 

0 

111 

0 

+9 

I I I 

TTT 

ILL 

TTT 

e 

o_ 

o 

e 

ILL 

13 

e 

TTT 

EE 

EE 

EE 

B 

EE 

a 

\ EE1 

ILL 

V 

ILL 

-| 

-

_ 

80 

75 _ 

70 -^ 

65 f 

60 «° 

55 

140 

120 2 

100 1 

CO 

80 

700 

600 3 

500 £ 

o 

oo 

400 

1 1» «>. 

100 t 

CO 

1 80 ° ° 

 1400 

1200 

1000 ^ 

800 | 

www ^»j 

1 600 

1 180 

160 

HO 

120 

100 2 80

 I 

60 

' 40 

1

 3 

4 

5 « 

6 •* 

7 S 

7 & 

8 

1

 9 

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. 

♦This is not necessarily the peak but is the high for the available data. 

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was therefore concluded that the advantage of keeping the 

coincident index more current and less affected by data 

revisions outweighed the advantage of including a component 

indicator that covered all sectors of the economy. 

Consumption and Distribution 

The record of manufacturers' sales (shipments) as a cyclical 

indicator is considerably better than that of trade sales, but it is 

nevertheless advisable to combine the two since this adds to the 

breadth and diversity of coverage of the index and the resulting 

aggregate still has acceptable timing and overall scores.13 

Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (BCD 56) 

scores slightly better than the constant-dollar series (56d) in the 

period 1948-70, due mainly to the superior performance of the 

former in the 1949 recession when prices fell. However, in the 

1970 recession, with prices rising, it was definitely the deflated 

aggregate that had the better record of cyclical timing, 

conformity, and amplitude, so the more recent and presumably 

more relevant experience suggested the use of sales in constant 

rather than current dollars. Developments in 1973-74 confirm a 

fortiori the lesson of 1970. 

COMPOSITE INDEXES OF COINCIDENT INDICATORS 

While all components of the new coincident index have the 

proper timing characteristics at both peaks and troughs, two 

series from the old indexes—unemployment rate and personal 

income—fail to so qualify. (See pp. vi and vii and table I, notes 

5 and 6.) Consequently, the components of the new index 

score, on the average, better than the components of either 

BCD 820 or BCD 825 (table 1, lines 9-11). 

Chart 2 compares the new coincident index with the two old 

ones (BCD 820 and BCD 825). It shows that the indexes, while 

generally coincident at troughs, often led by short intervals at 

business cycle peaks. In fact, BCD 825 had leads at each of the 

five peaks of the 1948-69 period. However, some of these 

departures from coincident timing, though they must be 

accepted for technical reasons and procedural consistency, 

involve very small differences between values of the series in 

adjacent months and probably have little significance.14 

During the last recession, BCD 820, reflecting in large 

measure inflation, declined only for the 6 months between 

September 1974 and March 1975, whereas the new index and 

BCD 825, neither of which includes any current-dollar series, 

had contractions beginning in November 1973. Data on real 

GNP, industrial production, employment in the goodsproducing sector, unemployment, etc., indicate that the economy reached its last cyclical peak late in 1973, not almost a 

year later; so the evidence from the post-sample period 

(1971-75) is unfavorable to BCD 820 as a coincident index.15 

To sum up, the new index is preferred in the light of (1) the 

evaluation of the individual series included in table 1, and (2) 

the events of the years that followed the period to which the 

13The cyclical behavior of manufacturers' sales in constant dollars 

resembles closely that of manufacturing production and hence rather well, 

too, that of the total industrial production index. Inclusion in the composite index of both the broad aggregate for real sales and industrial 

production in effect gives a large weight to manufacturing, and the question arises whether this weight is not in some sense excessive. We have 

therefore examined the alternative of excluding manufacturers' sales 

and using total wholesale and retail sales (in 1967 dollars) only. However, 

the two deflated trade sales series (wholesale and retail) do not score 

well enough as coincident indicators, separately or jointly, to qualify 

as components of the index. 

14

 Note, in particular, the minuscule decline in the index before the 

business peak in August 1957, which causes the index to show a lead of 

5 months. 

15

 For a survey of the evidence, see Geoffrey H. Moore, "Slowdowns, 

Recessions, and Inflation: Some Issues and Answers," Explorations in 

Economic Research, vol. 2, No. 2, spring, 1975. 

listed timing measures and scores refer. The new index also has 

a more nearly coincident timing, with less dispersion around the 

means, than either of the old indexes, but these differences are 

small and have very little effect on the scores of the composites.16 

PRINCIPAL LAGGING INDICATORS 

Indicators that lag consistently at business downturns as well 

as upturns are in short supply, since lags were much less 

frequent at peaks of the recent business cycles than at troughs 

(whereas leads were much more frequent at peaks than at 

troughs). Also, lags tended to be shorter (and leads, longer) at 

the upper than at the lower turning points. These asymmetries 

which are specific to the post-World War II era—the cyclical 

timing distributions in earlier periods were more symmetricalare well documented and are not attributable in any significant 

measure to errors in the accepted business cycle chronology. 

Rather, they are related to major changes in the economy that 

have altered the course of U.S. business cycles.17 

Since the index to be constructed is one that would provide 

consistent confirmations of both downturns and upturns in 

general business activity, all of its components must lag at both 

peaks and troughs and score well on that basis. This limitation is 

a serious one,18 since it causes the exclusion of some important 

series which lagged systematically at either business downturns 

or upturns but not at both. 

The section that follows explains the selection of the 

comoonents of the new lagging index and gives the reasons why 

some series in the old index and others were hot included. The 

series surveyed are again grouped by economic process. Table 2 

provides supporting summary measures for the lagging indexes 

and their components. Chart 3 shows how the individual series 

behaved during the expansions and contractions of the period 

1947-75. 

Employment and Unemployment 

The best lagging indicators in this group are the long-term 

unemployment rate (BCD 44) and average duration of 

unemployment (series X1), both used in inverted form. Of the 

two, the latter is on the whole preferable because it is more 

comprehensive (referring to all unemployment and not only the 

long-duration unemployment), has a somewhat more consistent 

timing, and is not affected by rounding in the way the former 

series is.19 The long-term unemployment rate (persons 

unemployed 15 weeks and over), a component of the old 

lagging index, is therefore replaced in the new index by the 

average duration of unemployment. 

Several other indicators in this group were analyzed, such as 

the number of those unemployed 15 weeks and over, the 

number of those unemployed 27 weeks and over, and the rate 

1 6 In fact, the direct scores for the performance of each of the three 

indexes in the sample period are almost identical and would not permit 

a meaningful discrimination between these constructs (table 1, lines 12-14). 

17On the relative frequencies of leads, rough coincidences, and lags in 

the period 1948-70, see Zarnowitz and Boschan in BCD, May 1975, 

p. viii. A complete account of the evidence will be given in a separate 

report. 

18As is the corresponding restriction for the index of leading indicators; see Zarnowitz and Boschan, op. cit., note 23 and app. A. 

19The series on unemployment rates often move in steps (appearing to 

have periods of unchanged values separated by large discrete changes), but 

this is merely the effect of rounding, the figures being carried only to the 

first decimal. Because of the adopted convention of locating the specific 

turning points at the end of the high and low steps, the measured timing of 

the unemployment rate series is more lagging than that of the corresponding series on the numbers of the unemployed (which, like the unemployment-duration data, have no steps). But this, of course, is merely a 

statistical artifact (as is the apparent greater smoothness of the rates). 

BCD 1977 189 

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CHART 2. COMPOSITE INDEXES OF COINCIDENT INDICATORS 

(NOV.) (OCT.) 

P T 

(JULY)(MAY) 

P T 

(AUG.) (APR.) (APR.MFEB.) 

P T P T 

(DEC.) (NOV.) 

P T 

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. 

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TABLE 2. AVERAGE TIMING AND SCORES, NEW AND OLD INDEXES 

OF LAGGING INDICATORS AND THEIR COMPONENTS, 1947-1970 

Line 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

Number and title of series1 

Components of New Index 

XI. Average duration of unemployment 

71d. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1967 dollars... 

*62. Labor cost per unit of out-

*72. Commercial and industrial 

loans outstanding, weekly 

reporting large commercial 

banks 

X251. Ratio, consumer installment 

debt to personal income... 

109. Average prime rate charged 

by banks 

Components of BCD Index 

(BCD 830) 

*44. Unemployment rate, persons 

unemployed 15 weeks and 

*61. Business expenditures, new 

*71. Book value, manufacturing 

*67. Bank rates on short-term 

Average, 6 series, new index 

(lines 1-6)? 

Average, 6 series, BCD 830 

(lines 3, 4, 7-10)7 

BCD 8309 

leads 

Median 

(-) or lags (+) 

(in months) 

Peaks 

(1) 

+1 

+2 1/2 

+8 1/2 

+1 1/2 

+6 1/2 

+3 1/2 

+1 

+1/2 

+3 

+3 

+3 

+2 

+3 

+1 

Troughs 

(2) 

+8 

+3 

+11 

+5 

+7 

+14 

+5 

+2 1/2 

+4 1/2 

+9 

+7 1/2 

+5 

+5 

+5 

All 

turns 

(3) 

+3 1/2 

+3 

+10 

+3 1/2 

+7 

+4 

+2 1/2 

+1 

+3 1/2 

+4 

+4 

+3 1/2 

+4 

+3 

Economic 

significance 

(4) 

90 

90 

80 

80 

80 

90 

80 

90 

90 

90 

85 

85 

85 

85 

Statistical 

adequacy 

(5) 

78 

70 

55 

60 

70 

95 

78 

80 

65 

65 

71 

67 

71 

67 

Timing3 

(6) 

89 

89 

87 

86 

87 

85 

85 

575 

93 

86 

87 

85 

92 

90 

Scores2 

Conformity 

(7) 

95 

64 

51 

81 

44 

62 

100 

66 

61 

75 

66 

72 

88 

89 

Smoothness 

(8) 

80 

100 

80 

100 

100 

100 

80 

80 

100 

80 

93 

87 

100 

100 

Currency 

(9) 

80 

53 

80 

100 

53 

100 

80 

53 

53 

53 

78 

70 

78 

70 

Total4 

(10) 

86 

80 

73 

83 

74 

87 

84 

575 

79 

77 

80 

78 

86 

84 

1Numbers preceded by asterisks (*) refer to series included in the current lagging index 

2A11 scores are listed on the 0-to-100 scale. 

3These are scores for all turns; the separate peak and trough scores are not given. All 

ging timing at peaks and at troughs. 

4Weighted averages of scores in columns 4-9. (For weights, see footnote 4 to table 1.) 

5When series 61 is treated as roughly coincident at peaks and lagging at troughs (C, Lg), 

score is 82, and its total score is 77. 

6Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. 

7Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. Crediting series 61 for nonlagging behavior 

score (col. 6) to 86 and the total score (col. 10) to 79. 

8Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 11. 

9Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 12. 

(BCD 830). 

series are scored on the assumption of laginstead of lagging at all turns, its timing 

(see footnote 5) would raise the timing 

of unemployment 27 weeks and over. None of these series 

qualify for inclusion in the index, mainly because their timing 

at peaks is not well defined. (They all lag consistently at 

troughs.) 

Fixed Capital Investment 

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment (BCD 

61) is a component of the old index not included in the new 

one. The principal reason is that its timing at business cycle 

peaks has been coincident rather than lagging. Also, the cyclical 

conformity of this quarterly series in current dollars has been 

better in the earlier part of the period covered than in the 

recent years of strong inflation. BCD 61 had no specific 

contraction during the 1970 recession, its upward trend having 

been interrupted for one quarter only, and it rose during the 

last recession until the last quarter of 1974 when it started a 

very mild decline. 

Deflation strongly reduces the upward trend in these data but 

has only weak effects upon their cyclical movements, except 

after 1966. Business fixed investment outlays in constant 

dollars (61 d) declined mildly in 1967, very irregularly in 1970, 

and decisively after mid-1974. But the timing of series 61 d, like 

that of series 61, must be classified as roughly coincident at 

peaks and lagging at troughs; it cannot be unambiguously 

defined for all turns. Several related series have also been found 

lacking the required consistency of cyclical timing.20 

The expectation that business expenditures on plant and 

equipment should be a lagging indicator rests mainly on the 

presumption that they follow, often with long distributed lags, 

the corresponding new investment commitments: new capital 

20These include (1) the monthly series on machinery and equipment 

sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial 

construction put in place), separately and combined (BCD 69); (2) the 

quarterly series for nonresidential fixed investment and its components, 

producers' durable equipment and nonresidential structures (from GNP 

accounts, in current and constant dollars); and (3) the monthly data corresponding to (2) 'now being developed by BEA and available for several 

recent years, which will provide important additions to the set of principal 

indicators. 

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CHART 3. COMPONENTS OF THE LAGGING COMPOSITE INDEXES 

(NOV.J" (OCT.) (JULY)(MAY> (AUG.) (APR.) (APR.)(FEB.) (DEC.) (NOV.) 

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. 

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CHART 3. COMPONENTS OF THE LAGGING COMPOSITE INDEXES—Continued 

(NOV.) (OCT.) 

P T 

(JULY)(MAY) 

P T 

(AUG.HAPR. ) (APR.)(FEB. ) 

P T P T 

(DSC.) (NOV.) 

P T 

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. 

BCD 1977 193 

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appropriations, contracts and orders. This they certainly do, 2 1 

but investment commitments reach their peaks so early relative 

to business cycle peaks that the outlays that trail behind them 

often decline along with, and sometimes ahead of, the economy 

at large. At business cycle troughs, investment commitments 

have typically much shorter leads and expenditures tend to lag 

but these lags are mostly short because, in times of low capacity 

utilization, orders and contracts for new capital goods are 

executed more promptly. 

Inventories and Inventory Investment 

Total manufacturing and trade inventories (on hand) tend to 

lag at both peaks and' troughs.2 2 This applies to the book-value 

series (BCD 71) as well as to the corresponding aggregate in 

constant dollars (71 d). During the 1948-70 period, deflation 

had very little effect on these data. As illustrated by the scores, 

both series conformed well to the business cycles covered, 

except that neither declined during the 1970 recession. However, the sharp acceleration of inventory growth in 1973-74 was 

apparently due chiefly to rising prices; the increases in the 

constant-dollar series remained fairly steady. Although adjustments of inventories for the effects of inflation are, of course, 

known to be difficult and of uncertain quality, the new price 

deflators now available from the Commerce Department are 

substantially improved and considered adequate. They allow for 

the appropriate lag patterns and the characteristic LIFO-FIFO 

proportions in the different industries. The new deflated series 

71 d is therefore regarded as the proper replacement for the 

book-value aggregate (BCD 71) used in the old lagging index. 

Taking ratios of manufacturing and trade inventories to the 

corresponding sales figures is a different way in which to 

express inventories in real terms. The series of simple inventory-to-sales ratios (BCD 851) has much longer lags than 

deflated inventories but scores about as well on timing; however, 

BCD 851 is definitely inferior to 71 d with regard to smoothness 

and conformity. Since inventories and sales should be somewhat 

differently deflated to take account of lags in the pricing 

process, we have also experimentally constructed and examined 

a series of ratios of inventories in constant dollars to sales in 

constant dollars, but the results were not significantly different 

from those obtained with the simple ratios. 

Prices, Costs, and Profits 

Unit labor cost is one of the central variables in a major 

hypothesis about the causes of business cycles; it has received 

much attention in research, which established its historical 

tendency to lag at business cycle turns and related that 

tendency to the cyclical behavior of wage rates and productivity 

of labor.23 The monthly series included in the old index (BCD 

2 1

 For detailed historical evidence, see Zarnowitz, Orders, Production, 

and Investment. New York: NBER, 1973, pt. III. 

2 2Yhe record ot manufacturers' unfilled orders indicates that 

inventories on order, i.e.;stocks of goods ordered for further processing or 

resale but not yet received, have earlier timing, leading at peaks and lagging 

or, less often, coinciding at troughs. This would be expected, since the 

on-order part of inventories can be adjusted more promptly to desired 

target levels than the on-hand part. The new composite index of leading 

indicators includes a series on net change in inventories on hand and on 

order, in deflated and smoothed form. See Zarnowitx and Boschan, op. 

cit., p. ix. 

23Wesley C. Mitchell, Business Cycles, Berkeley: University of 

California Press, 1913 (part 3, reprinted in 1959 as Business Cycles and 

Their Causes). For a recent application and appraisal of Mitchell's theory, 

see Geoffrey H. Moore, "Productivity, Costs, and Prices: New Light From 

an Old Hypothesis," Explorations in Economic Research, vol. 2, No. 1, 

winter 1975. It is of interest to add that the analysis of cyclical aspects of 

unit labor costs has been largely disregarded in the more recent writings on 

inflation, although the treatment of the role of wages and productivity 

changes in that literature is extensive. (See Martin Bronfenbrenner and F. 

D. Holzman, "Survey of Inflation Theory," American Economic Review, 

September 1963.) 

62) scores reasonably well on the strength of long and regular 

tags at the three business peaks and four troughs of the period 

1949-61. In 1961-65, series 62 drifted downward; since 1966, it 

has risen strongly, except for a slowdown followed by a brief 

and shallow decline in 1971-72. Thus, unit labor costs turned 

down during the first two recessions covered (in 1948-49 and 

1953-54), but rose during each of the four following recessions; 

they declined in each of the four recoveries of the 1950's and 

1960's, but merely flattened in the recovery of 1971-72. 

Finally, BCD 62 increased sharply in 1973-75, particularly 

during the recession, and gave the first tentative indication of a 

decline only in August 1975. The two related quarterly series 

(unit labor cost for the total private economy, BCD 63, and 

labor cost per unit of real corporate product, BCD 68) behave 

similarly.24 

Clearly, the historical pattern of cyclical behavior of unit 

labor costs has recently been distorted by the effects of 

persistent and rapid inflation, with strong pressures for higher 

money wage rates continuing even while the productivity of 

labor (output per man-hour) diminished markedly as in 

1973-74. Labor as well as property incomes typically share in 

the inflationary increases in the value of output, so that major 

inflations, whatever their causes, will most of the time see 

money wages rising faster than productivity, which implies 

rising nominal unit labor costs. 

What happens to real labor cost per unit of output depends 

on relative changes in prices, wages, and productivity of labor, 

and on how these changes are perceived by, and influence the 

decisions of, the employers and employees. The cyclical 

behavior of this variable is not very regular, though a broad 

tendency to lag would be expected.25 

Unit labor costs, then, have definitely become less sensitive 

cyclically in recent years as inflation grew stronger and persisted 

through periods of deteriorating and poor, as well as improving 

and good, business conditions. But this important cost factor 

retains its basic character and function as a lagging indicator, 

although its reactions to cyclical developments in the 1970's 

have been considerably more muted and delayed than before. 

Series 62 still qualifies as a component of the lagging index, and 

its inclusion broadens the coverage and improves the performance of the index. 

Money and Credit 

We retain unchanged from the old index the aggregate of 

commercial and industrial loans outstanding (weekly reporting 

large commercial banks—BCD 72). This series represents the 

most cyclical component of total bank loans, reflects in large 

measure the financing of business inventories (itself a lagging 

indicator), and is available frequently and promptly. It flattened rather than declined with a lag in response to the 1960-

61 recession; at other times, it lagged consistently at troughs 

and also, with one exception (in 1948), at peaks. Its record as 

It may be noted, however, that they show smaller and shorter 

declines in the early 1960's and also more continuous rises in 1971-72. In 

1975, BCD 68 was the first one to turn down (in the second quarter). 

2Sh general formula for nominal unit labor costs is NULC = Wh/y, 

where W = average hourly money compensation of employees, h = total 

number of hours worked, and y = real output produced. Deflation with 

the wage rate (division by W) produces one type of real unit labor costs, 

RULC1 = h/y, which is the reciprocal of output per man-hour. Deflation 

with the price level P produces another type, RULC = Wh/Py, which is a 

labor share series (as approximated by the quarterly estimates of compensation as percent of national income, BCD 280A, or as percent of GNP). 

RULC has a strong downward trend, RULC_ is relatively stable in the 

long run; both lag by very long and variable intervals. 

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a lagging indicator is good, and it is not bettered by attempts 

to deflate the loans.26 

The other important series in the credit group—consumer 

installment debt (BCD 66)—can be viewed as a cumulation of 

the net credit changes which equal the differences between 

credit extensions and repayments. Consumer credit extensions 

tend to have roughly coincident timing, while repayments 

show lagging responses (often only retardations) to business 

recessions.27 Total installment credit outstanding had a strong 

upward trend, particularly in the early post-World War II years 

including the 1948-49 recession, and reacted to the later business contractions sluggishly with very mild declines (in 1970 

merely with a slowdown). However, much better results are 

obtained with the ratio of consumer installment debt to personal income (series X251), which shows definite declines 

with lagged timing in connection with each of the business 

recessions since 1953.28 Using this ratio represents the most 

satisfactory method we could find of allowing for the trend 

(reflecting, among other factors, inflation) and bringing out 

the cyclical element in consumer credit. The inclusion of the 

ratio of consumer installment debt to personal income in the 

composite index of lagging indicators significantly improves 

both the coverage and performance of the index. 

The quarterly series of bank rates on short-term business 

loans (BCD 67), a component of the old index of laggers, is 

now replaced by the monthly series of the average prime rate 

charged by banks (BCD 109). The two indicators behave very 

similarly, but BCD 109 has the maximum score for currency 

and BCD 67, being quarterly, rates poorly on this criterion. 

In the past (before 1966 and notably in the early 1960's), the 

average prime rate remained unchanged for long periods of 

time, which accounts for some of its lags that were especially 

long at troughs; but the bank rates were also approximately 

constant in the same periods. 

Since the late 1940's, interest rates generally have become 

much more sensitive to cyclical influences, as evidenced by 

large increases in the amplitudes of their cyclical movements 

and a gradual reduction in their lags at peaks and troughs in 

business activity,29 Interest rates may also be growing increasingly sensitive to price-level changes, reflecting the intensification and greater variability of inflation. It is therefore possible that the tendency of certain interest rates to lag at business 

cycle turns will significantly diminish in the future.30 

COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LAGGING INDICATORS 

Table 2 shows that the components of the new lagging index 

have, on the average, higher scores than the components of the 

old lagging index (BCD 830) with respect to statistical 

adequacy, timing, smoothness, and currency, and hence overall 

26Moreover, it is not clear how to deflate this series in a meaningful 

way, i.e., what prices to use, with what timing, etc. Nor is there a monthly 

business income series to which the loans could be related (as we relate 

consumer debt to personal income). 

"^See Paul W. McCracken, James C. T. Mao, and Cedric Fricke, 

Consumer Installment Credit and Public Policy, Michigan Business Studies, 

vol. XVII , No. 1, 1965, and Philip A. Klein, The Cyclical Timing of Consumer Credit, 1920-67, Occasional Paper 113, New York: NBER, 1971. 

2 8 t h e ratio series, like BCD 66, failed to decline in 1948-49. The rapid 

increase in consumer debt during the late 1940's and early 1950's was 

probably due mainly to the huge backlog of unsatisfied demand for automobiles and other durable consumer goods that originated in the wartime 

shortages. 

2 9

 The lags have decreased much more for long-term than for short-term 

interest rates, and for the latter primarily at peaks rather than at troughs. 

See Phillip Cagan, Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates, 

Occasional Paper 100, New York: NBER, 1966. 

3 0

 However, bank loan rates usually turn later than the active 

open-market rates (such as the Treasury bill and bond rates) which tend to 

have roughly coincident timing at peaks and lag at troughs. These sequences, in which the rates of negotiated markets turn last, would be expected 

to persist. See Cagan, op. cit. 

(lines 11 and 12). In addition to these assessments of the individual series, the evaluation of the 1948-70 record of the composite indexes themselves (lines 13 and 14) also supports the 

decisions made in the process of deriving the new lagging index. 

The cyclical movements of the component lagging indicators 

can be examined in chart 3 which identifies their turning dates. 

Chart 4 does the same for the new and old lagging indexes. 

It shows that the new index lagged at all business cycle turns 

covered, while BCD 830 had one deviation from the lagging 

pattern (coincidence at the 1948 peak). Also, the timing 

observations at both peaks and troughs are less dispersed for 

the new than for the old index. 

THE SYSTEM OF LEADING, COINCIDING AND LAGGING 

INDICATORS 

The previous discussion of the revised index of leading indicators31

 and the present discussion of coinciding and lagging 

indicators permit us now to examine the revised system as a 

whole. 

Let us briefly review the rationale for the selection of the 

indicators. The timing characteristics of the leading indicators 

and their forecasting function are easily understood. These 

indicators represent anticipations and early links in the 

sequences of business decisions, early stages of the investment 

and production processes, and measures of flows contributing 

to changes in the levels of economic stocks. The tendency of 

these series and their composites to lead makes them obvious 

warning signals and tools for the forecasting of changes in 

general business conditions. Their main shortcomings for 

this purpose are their hypersensitivity and the considerable 

variation in length of their leads, particularly before business 

cycle peaks. Also, to the extent that the warning signs are 

heeded by policymakers, the forecasting effectiveness becomes impaired as countercyclical policies are implemented. 

The roughly coincident indicators are broad comprehensive 

measures which tend to summarize the state of actual business 

activity from the input and the output side. They not only 

confirm or invalidate expectations based on the behavior of 

the leading indicators, but also give some precision to the 

timing of the broad swings in economic activity. It is the 

behavior of the coinciders which should firm up policy decisions that the leaders could only suggest. 

The first function of the lagging (Lg) indicators is to confirm 

or refute the inferences derived from the behavior of the 

coincident (C) indicators. Perhaps more important for forecasting purposes, however, is the characteristic lead of the 

laggers relative to the opposite turns of the leaders (L). Many 

lagging indicators, such as the interest rates charged by banks, 

unit labor costs, inventories carried in manufacturing and 

trade, and business loans outstanding, measure or reflect the 

cost of doing business; it is mainly for this reason that these 

series, when inverted, lead most of the other important indicators (not only the coinciders but often also the leaders). 

For example, declines in inventories and interest rates during 

a business contraction pave the way for an upturn in new 

orders and then in the output of materials, etc., by making 

business operations less expensive and, hence, potentially 

more profitable, and also by depleting stocks relative to the 

current production and sales requirements. 

Chart 5 and table 3 show the sequences of turning points of 

the three new composite indexes and the intervals between 

them. It is clear that, on the whole, the system worked well: no 

single turning point occurred out of sequence, i.e., the laggers 

never turned before the coinciders, nor the coinciders before 

the leaders, nor the leaders before the laggers of the previous 

episode. The cycle-to-cycle dispersion of the time intervals 

between the successive turns in the leading-coincident-lagging 

sequence was relatively moderate, except for the intervals from 

3 1Zarnowitz and Boschan, op. cit. 

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CHART 4. COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LAGGING INDICATORS 

(NOV.) (OCT.) JULY)(MAY ) AUG.) (APR.) (APR.xni. ) (DEC.) (NOV.) 

P T P T P T P T P T 

TTT 

-

V 

« 

oa 

[ill 

.■i 

TTT 

o 

5 

TTT 

jlflllli i l l 

TTT 

LLLL 

TTT 

+2 

»' 

• 

111 

TTT 

N 

• 

+5 

1 

• 

+5 

= 111 

TTT 

ew in 

Idini 

LLLL 

TTT TTT 

lex of 6 lai 

TTT TTT TTT 

[ging indicators 

+4 

4 

ex of 6 lag 

ILL 

+1 

ft 

Jill 

• 

0 

+4-

ging 

0 

+4 

ILL 

+3 

• 

TTT TTT TTT 

series XI, 71D, 

9 

+5 

indicators (series 44,1 

i l l 

+1 

• 

ILL 

i • 

1+5 

LLLL ILL 

TTT TTT TTT 

!2,72, X251, 10! 

il, 62, 67, 71, 72) 

ILL H i i l l ILL 

TTT 

) 

ILL 

TTT 

c 

ILL 

HipSE TTT 

ndex: 1967-100 

: 

JJLLJ 

f2 

B 

+8 

0 

+7 

0 

+6 

iili ILL 

T TT 

] 

ILL 

TTT 

i l l 

T TT 

< 

• 

H i 

TTT1 

Vn 

EE 

ILLI 

220 

200 

180 

160 

140

 3 

JS 

120 

100 

80 

240 

220 

200 

180 

160 

140 

120 

-j 100 

-I 80 

-I 60 

->■ 40 

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. 

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CHART 5. NEW COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING INDICATORS 

(NOV.) (OCT.) 

P T 

(DEC.) (NOV.) 

P T 

130 

120 

110 

100 

90 

80 

70 

180 

160 

140 

120 

-» 100 

220 

200 

180 

160 

140 

120 

100 

H 60 

-* 40 

130 

120 

110 

100 

90 

80 

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 

NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. 

♦This is not necessarily the peak but is the high tor the available data. 

BCD 1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
TABLE 3. SEQUENCES OF TURNING POINTS IN THE COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING (L), 

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C), AND LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS, 1948-75 

Line 

1 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

Dates of business cycle 

turns (peak-trough-peak) 

7/53-5/54-8/57 

8/57-4/58-4/60 

4/60-2/61-12/69 

ll/732-3/752 

Dates of associated turning points in indexes L, C, and Lg 

Peak 

of L 

(1) 

1l/48 

3/53 

9/55 

4/59 

1/69 

6/73 

Peak 

of C 

(2) 

10/48 

7/53 

3/57 

4/60 

10/69 

11/73 

Peak 

of Lg 

(3) 

2/49 

9/53 

12/57 

7/60 

2/70 

12/74 

Trough 

of L 

(4) 

6/49 

11/53 

2/58 

12/60 

10/70 

3 2/75 

Trough 

of C 

(5) 

10/49 

5/54 

4/58 

2/61 

11/70 

3 3/75 

Trough 

of Lg 

(6) 

3/50 

10/54 

8/58 

7/61 

6/71 

3 6/75 

Peak 

of L 

(7) 

3/53 

9/55 

4/59 

1/69 

6/73 

Time intervals between the successive turning points 

(in months) 

L to C 

(peaks) 

9 

4 

18 

12 

9 

5 

9.5 

9 

4.6 

C to Lg 

(peaks) 

4 

2 

9 

3 

4 

13 

5.8 

4 

3.9 

Lg (peaks) 

to L(troughs) 

4 

2 

2 

5 

8 

2 

3.8 

3 

2.2 

L to C 

(troughs) 

4 

6 

2 

2 

1 

1 

2.7 

2 

1.8 

C to Lg 

(troughs) 

5 

5 

4 

5 

7 

3 

4.8 

5 

1.2 

Lg (troughs) 

to L(peaks) 

536 

11 

8 

6 90 

24 

33.8 

24 

29.8 

Duration 

of sequence4 

62(56) 

30(49) 

43(32) 

117(116) 

53(47) 

61(60) 

53(49) 

30.0(29.1) 

^^This is not necessarily the peak but is the high for the available data (which began in 1948). 

20fficial business cycle peak and trough dates for the current cycle have not yet been designated. The tentative dates of November 

1973 (peak) and March 1975 (trough) used in this table are based on the turning points in the composite index of coincident indicators. 

3Tentative, subject to revisions in recent data. 

4The first figure represents the sum of the corresponding entries in columns 1-6. The second figure (in parentheses) represents 

the duration of the corresponding business cycle measured from peak to peak. 

5Disregards the extra decline in the leading index from August 1950 through November 1951. 

disregards the extra decline in the leading index from March 1966 through January 1967. 

the troughs of the lagging index (Lg) to the peaks of the leading 

index (L), whose great variability in length reflect the variability 

in length of business expansions (table 3, col. 6). Thus, it is 

apparent that the lagging index functions well as a confirmer 

of the coinciders at both peaks and troughs, but its value as a 

forecaster of the opposite turn of the leaders is essentially 

confined to its peaks. 

A measure likely to produce more stable and predictively 

useful relationships than the inverted lagging index is the ratio 

of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of 

lagging indicators (C/Lg), suggested by Geoffrey Moore.32 

The turning points in the C/Lg ratio will lead those of the 

coincident index if the movement of the latter decelerates 

before its turning point while the lagging index continues to 

move at a faster rate. In addition, there are some economic 

reasons for expecting the C/Lg ratio to have early cyclical 

timing. For example, a downturn in the ratio of sales (C) 

to inventories (Lg) should have an adverse effect on, and 

may anticipate the downturn in, new orders (L). Similarly, 

a slowdown in the rise of output (C) combined with a continuing strong rise in unit labor cost and other costs (such 

as those associated with growing inventories and business indebtedness, which all lag) will depress profits and new investment commitments (L). 

The advantage of the derived C/Lg index as a forecasting 

tool is twofold. First, it provides an additional comprehensive 

leading series, based on series which are entirely different from 

those included in the composite index of leaders. Second, if 

its turning points do indeed precede those in the composite 

leading index, the ratio has considerable supplementary forecasting value. Chart 5 shows that the cyclical turns in the 

C/Lg ratio preceded the turns in general business activity on all 

but one occasion. The leads of the C/Lg ratio at business cycle 

32See his "Generating Leading Indicators From Lagging Indicators," 

Western Economic Journal, vol. VII, No. 2, June 1969, pp. 135-144. 

peaks were long, varying from 12 to 35 months; the leads at 

troughs were much shorter, varying from 0 to 5 months. Thus, 

the C/Lg index can be useful as an independent leading 

indicator. However, the C/Lg ratio does not give reliable early 

signals anticipating the movements of the leading index (L): in 

1948-70, C/Lg led the leading index at only four turns and 

lagged at two. Also, the scores of the C/Lg ratio are significantly 

lower than those of the leading index, although they are on the 

whole about as high as the average scores of the individual 

components of leading index.33 

In summary, it should be pointed out again that, for the 

period 1948-70, the turning points of the revised indexes are 

very similar in timing to those of the old indexes. The decisive 

advantage of the revised indexes is that they do not lose their 

indicator characterisitcs during periods of pronounced inflation 

and that their behavior is somewhat improved by the exclusion 

of indicators with mixed timing, i.e., indicators which have 

different timing characteristics at peaks and at troughs of 

business cycles. 

We hope and expect that continuous research as well as 

careful and perceptive monitoring of the indicator system will 

lead to further improvements in the behavioral characteristics 

and the forecasting usefulness of that system. 

33The scores being compared are tabulated below. The scores for economic significance, statistical adequacy, and currency are based in each 

case on the mean scores of the individual series used in the computation of 

the particular index (C/Lg or L). 

Eco- Statisnomic tical 

signifi- adecance quacy 

C/Lg 88 71 

L . . . 81 73 

Average, 12 

leading series . 81 73 

Tim- Confor- Smoothing mity ness 

79 29 100 

84 78 100 

Currency Total 

76 73 

76 82 

82 58 70 76 74 

198 The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

Digitized for FRASER 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
B. Data for New Series and Indexes 

Year 

Monthly 

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 

NEW COMPOSITE NDEX OF 4 COINCIDENT INDICATORS 

(1967=100 ) 

1945.. . 

191*6.. . 

191*7.. . 

1948.. . 

191*9.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

30. 1 30. 1 30. 4 

30. 3 30. 2 29. 9 

30. 0 29. 9 30. 7 

35. 3 35. 3 35. 5 

36. 1 36. 5 36. 6 

39. 6 39. 9 40. 2 

38. 2 38. 3 38. 0 

40. 0 40. 3 41i l 

45. 1 45. 1 45. 2 

47. 0 47. 4 47. 4 

43. 7 42. 7 42. 0 

46. 8 47. 6 48. 4 

51. 7 51. 6 51. 3 

49. 1 49. 0 49. 5 

54. 7 55. 4 56. 0 

58. 6 59. 2 59. 6 

64. 3 65. 5 65. 7 

74. 1 75. 1 76. 5 

87. 9 89. 0 90. 7 

97. 7 96. 9 97. 2 

105. 4 107. 3 108. 1 

117. 8 119. 5 120. 5 

122. 3 122. 9 123. 0 

121. 0 121. 8 122. 7 

134. 8 136. 5 139. 4 

163. 4 166. 5 168. 0 

173. 7 172. 6 172. 2 

152. 5 149. 7 147. 0 

30. 2 30. 4 30. 9 

29. 7 29. 5 29. 4 

31. 3 31. 9 32. 6 

35.R 35. 6 35. 7 

36. 5 36. 6 36. 4 

40. 3 40. 4 40. 3 

37. 9 37. 8 37. 9 

41. 7 42. 4 42. 7 

45. 7 45. 6 45. 6 

47. 0 46. 9 47. 1 

41. 4 41. 5 42. 2 

49. 4 50. 1 50. 3 

51. 7 51. 4 51. 2 

49. 9 50. 6 51. 4 

56. 6 56. 8 56. 8 

60. 3 60. 7 61. 1 

66. 8 67. 7 68. 1 

77. 2 78. 2 79. 3 

91. 2 92. 1 93. 7 

98. 0 98. 2 99. 2 

108. 5 110. 2 111. 5 

121. 0 121. 6 122. 6 

122. 7 122. 6 122. 4 

123. 8 125. 1 125. 3 

141. 8 144. 0 144. 5 

168. 2 169. 6 170. 3 

171. 8 172. 5 171. 6 

147. 6 148. 8 149. 5 

31. 0 31. 0 31. 0 

29. 1 29. 4 29. 7 

33. 7 34. 6 34. 3 

35. 4 35. 6 35. 5 

36. 0 37. 3 38. 3 

40. 4 40. 1 39. 7 

37. 9 37. 9 38. 2 

43. 1 43. 2 43. 7 

43. 9 45. 6 46. 2 

47. 2 47. 3 46. 8 

43. 1 43. 6 44. 2 

50. 0 48. 6 48. 4 

51. 0 50. 8 50. 7 

51. 7 52. 4 52. 5 

57. 2 57. 5 57. 7 

61. 7 61. 8 62. 6 

69. 1 69. 9 71. 0 

80. 7 81. 8 82. 3 

94. 4 94. 9 95. 6 

99. 6 101. 2 101. 3 

112. 8 112. 8 114. 4 

123. 5 124. 3 125. 2 

122. 8 122. 7 121. 9 

124. 7 125. 3 127. 6 

146. 0 149. 5 151. 2 

173. 0 172. 7 174. 4 

172. 4 171. 9 171. 0 

151. 5 154. 6 156. 9 

31. 1 31. 0 30. 8 

28. 7 29. 2 29. 6 

34. 4 34. 3 35. 0 

35. 7 35. 9 35. 9 

38. 7 39. 0 39. 4 

39. 6 39. 1 38. 6 

38. 4 39. 0 39. 5 

44. 2 44. 6 44. 9 

46. 7 46. 7 47. 2 

46. 3 45. 4 44. 4 

44. 6 45. 9 45. 8 

48. 3 48. 9 50. 8 

50. 5 49. 9 49. 1 

53. 4 54. 4 54. 9 

57. 9 58. 5 58. 4 

63. 4 63. 2 63. 8 

70. 1 71. 9 73. 8 

84. 1 85. 4 86. 7 

96. 6 96. 8 97. 2 

101. 1 103. 8 105. 7 

115. 2 116. 5 116. 8 

126. 0 124. 4 124. 2 

117. 5 115. 6 119. 0 

127. 5 129. 9 131. 6 

155. 2 157. 5 159. 9 

176. 4 178. 2 175. 6 

169. 0 162. 8 156. 4 

158. 8 

MEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS 

(196 7 = 100 ) 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

19R1.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

24. 2 24. 4 24. 6 

26. 6 26. 7 26. 6 

25. 9 25. 8 25. 8 

29. 9 30. 4 30. 9 

^4. 2 34. 3 34. 5 

36. 8 37. 1 37. 4 

38. 5 38. 3 37. 8 

36. 2 36. 3 36.R 

40. 8 41. 0 41. 8 

46. 0 45. 8 46. 0 

47. 6 46. 8 46. 5 

44. 1 44. 4 44. 8 

50. 7 51. 8 52. 6 

53. 4 53. 3 52. 8 

52. 8 52. 9 53. 5 

58. 1 58. 4 58. 6 

63. 8 64. 6 64. 9 

71. 9 73. 2 74. 5 

83. 6 85. 4 86. 9 

98. 8 98. 8 99. 7 

102. 8 103. 9 104. 3 

116. 6 117. 7 119. 5 

134. 0 134. 1 132. 9 

124. 7 124. 3 123. 3 

124. 4 123. 4 124. 5 

140. 8 144. 4 147. 5 

177. 7 177. 6 178. 7 

198. 9 192. 4 190. 3 

24. 8 24. 9 25. 1 

26. 5 26. 5 26. 2 

25. 9 26. 2 26. 3 

31. 3 31. 8 32. 4 

34. 4 35. 0 35. 4 

38. n 38. 3 38. 4 

37.C 37. 2 36. 8 

36. 5 36. 8 37. 4 

42. 6 '43. 4 43. 9 

46. 5 46. 7 46. 9 

45. 9 44. 5 43. 7 

45. 2 46. 1 47. 1 

53. 0 53. 8 54. 3 

52. 2 52. 0 51. 6 

54. 0 54. 5 55. 2 

58. 7 59. 1 59. 8 

65. 7 65. 9 66. 5 

75. 9 /7. 1 77. 5 

88. 5 90. 0 91. 7 

98. 8 99. 4 99. 8 

105. 6 107. 9 108. 6 

122. 0 123. 5 127. 4 

130. 4 130. 8 131. 6 

122. 0 122. 3 120. 5 

125. 8 127. 2 128. 0 

151. 3 154. 2 158. 1 

184. 0 189. 4 192. 3 

185. 5 181. 7 174. 9 

25. 6 26. 0 26. 2 

26. 1 25. 9 25. 8 

26. 5 26. 9 27. 6 

32. 5 32. 8 32. 9 

35. 4 35. 3 35. 6 

38. 7 38. 7 39.0 . 

36. 7 36. 2 36. 0 

37. 7 38. 7 39. 1 

44. 8 44. 3 44. 8 

47. 2 47. 9 48. 4 

43. 3 43. 0 43. 4 

47. 9 49. 0 50. 0 

54. 3 54. 1 53. 6 

51. 1 51. 5 51. 7 

55. 7 5 6. 2 5 6. 7 

60. 5 60. 9 61. 3 

66. 4 67. 8 69. 2 

78. 1 79. 2 79. 3 

93. 0 94. 7 94. 9 

100. 1 99. 6 100. 6 

108. 7 109. 6 110. 5 

128. 8 129. 3 129. 9 

132. 5 133. 0 132. 8 

123. 5 125. 4 125. 8 

129. 1 130. 7 132. 1 

162. 4 166. 1 169. 3 

195. 5 196. 7 198. 3 

175. 6 174. 8 174. 0 

26. 0 26. 4 26. 4 

26. 1 25. 8 25. 8 

28. 3 29. 0 29. 2 

33. 2 33. 4 33. 8 

35. 7 35. 9 36. 4 

38. 9 38. 8 38. 8 

35. 9 36. 1 36. 1 

39. 6 40. 2 40. 2 

45. 0 45. 5 45. 5 

47. 9 48. 2 48. 4 

43. 5 43. 5 44. 0 

50. 7 50. 6 50. 5 

53. 4 53. 7 53. 8 

51. 7 51. 7 52. 0 

57. 3 57. 9 58. 0 

62. 2 63. 5 64. 1 

69. 7 69. 3 70. 8 

80. 5 81. 5 83. 0 

95. 5 97. 3 97. 9 

100. 3 101. 2 102. 9 

110. 2 111. 8 114. 6 

131. 7 131. 9 132. 3 

132. 0 129. 7 127. 6 

125. 3 125. 0 125. 8 

134. 0 135. 7 137. 6 

170. 3 171. 7 175. 8 

199. 5 198. 9 199. 5 

176. 2 

RATIO, NEW COINCIDENT INDEX TO NEW LAGGING INDEX 

(196 7 = 100 ) 

1945.. . 

1946.. . 

1947.. . 

1948.. . 

1949.. . 

1950.. . 

1951.. . 

1952.. . 

1953.. . 

1954.. . 

1955.. . 

1956.. . 

1957.. . 

1958.. . 

1959.. . 

1960.. . 

1961.. . 

1962.. . 

1963.. . 

1964.. . 

1965.. . 

1966.. . 

1967.. . 

1968.. . 

1969.. . 

1970.. . 

1971.. . 

1972.. . 

1973.. . 

1974.. . 

1975.. . 

124. 4 123. 4 123. 6 

113. 9 113. 1 112. 4 

115. 8 115. 9 119. 0 

118. 1 116. 1 114. 9 

105. 6 106. 4 106. 1 

107. 6 107. 5 107. 5 

99. 2 100. 0 100. 5 

110. 5 111. 0 112. 3 

110. 5 110. 0 108. 1 

102. 2 103. 5 103. 0 

91. 8 91. 2 90. 3 

106. 1 107. 2 108. 0 

102. 0 99. 6 97. 5 

91. 9 91. 9 93. 8 

103. 6 104. 7 104. 7 

100. 9 101.4 ' 101. 7 

100. 8 101. 4 101. 2 

103. 1 102. 6 102. 5 

105. 1 10 4. 2 10 4. 4 

98. 9 98. 1 97. 5 

102. 5 103. 3 103. 6 

101. 0 101. 5 100. 8 

91. 3 91. 6 92. 6 

97. 0 98. 0 99. 5 

108. 4 110. 6 112. 0 

116. 1 115. 3 113. 9 

97. 7 97. 2 96. 4 

76. 7 77. 8 77. 2 

121. 8 122. 1 123. 1 

112. 1 111. 3 112. 2 

120. 8 121. 8 124. 0 

113. 7 111. 9 110. 2 

106. 1 104. 6 102. 8 

106. 1 105. 5 104. 9 

100. 8 101. 6 103. 0 

114. 2 115. 2 114. 2 

107. 3 105. 1 103. 9 

101. 1 100. 4 100. 4 

90. 2 93. 3 96. 6 

109. 3 108. 7 106. 8 

97. 5 95. 5 94. 3 

95.H 97. 3 99. 6 

104. 8 104. 2 102. 9 

102. 7 102. 7 102. 2 

101. 7 102. 7 102. 4 

101. 7 101. 4 102. 3 

103. 1 102. 3 102. 2 

99. 2 98. 8 99. 4 

. 102. 7 102. 1 102. 7 

99. 2 98. 5 96. 2 

94. 1 93. 7 93. 0 

I 101. 5 102. 3 104. 0 

112. 7 113. 2 112. 9 

111. 2 110. 0 107. 7 

I 93. 4 91. 1 89. 2 

79.C 81. 9 85. 5 

121. 1 119. 2 118. 3 

111. 5 113. 5 115. 1 

127. 2 128. 6 124. 3 

108. 9 108. 5 107. 9 

101. 7 105. 7 107. 6 

104. 4 103. 6 101. 8 

103. 3 104. 7 106. 1 

114. 3 111. 6 111. 8 

98. 0 102. 9 103. 1 

100. 0 98. 7 96. 7 

99. 5 101. 4 101. 8 

104. 4 99. 2 96. 8 

93. 9 93. 9 94. 6 

} 101. 2 101. 7 101. 5 

102. 7 102. 3 101. 8 

102. 0 101. 5 102. 1 

104. 1 103. 1 102. 6 

103. 3 103. 3 103. 8 

101. 5 100. 2 100. 7 

99. 5 101. 6 100. 7 

103. 3 102. 9 103. 5 

95. 9 96. 1 96. 4 

92. 7 92. 3 91. 8 

101. 0 99. 9 101. 4 

113. 1 114. 4 114. 5 

106. 5 104. 0 103. 0 

88. 2 87. 4 86. 2 

86. 2 88. 4 90. 2 

119. 6 117. 4 116. 7 

110. 0 113. 2 114. 7 

.121. 6 118. 3 119. 9 

107. 5 107. 5 106. 2 

108. 4 108. 6 108. 2 

101. 8 100. 8 99. 5 

107. 0 108. 0 109. 4 

111. 6 110. 9 111. 7 

103. 8 102. 6 103. 7 

96. 7 94. 2 91. 7 

102. 5 105. 5 104. 1 

95. 3 96. 6 100. 6 

94. 6 92. 9 91. 3 

103. 3 105. 2 105. 6 

101. 0 101. 0 100. 7 

101. 9 99. 5 99. 5 

100. 6 103. 8 104. 2 

104. 5 104. 8 104. 5 

101. 2 9 9. 5 99. 3 

100. 8 102. 6 102. 7 

104. 5 104. 2 101. 9 

95. 7 94. 3 93. 9 

8 9. 0 8 9. 1 93. 3 

101. 8 103. 9 104. 6 

115. 8 116. 1 116. 2 

103. 6 103. 8 99. 9 

84. 7 81. 9 78. 4 

90. 1 

Quarterly 

IQ II Q III Q IV Q 

Annual 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

30i 2 30.*5 3i! o 3i.'n' 

30. 1 29. 5 29. 4 29. 2 

30. 2 31. 9 34. 2 34.H 

35. 4 35. 6 35. 5 35. 8 

36. 4 36. 5 37. 2 39. 0 , 

39. 9 40. 3 40. 1 39. 1 

38. 2 37. 9 38. 0 39. 0 

40. 5 42. 3 43. 3 44. 6 

45. 1 45. 6 45. 2 46. 9 

47. 3 47. 0 47. 1 45. 4 

42. 8 41. 7 43. 6 45. 4 

47. 6 49. 9 49. 0 49. 3 

51. 5 51. 4 50. 8 49. 8 | 

49. 2 50. 6 52. 2 54. 2 

55. 4 56. 7 57. 5 58. 3 

59. 1 60. 7 62. 0 63. 5 

65.2 . 67. 5 70. 0 71. 9 

75. 2 78. 2 81. 6 85. 4 

89. 2 92. 3 95. 0 96. 9 

97. 3 98. 5 100. 7 103. 5 

106. 9 110. 1 113. 3 116. 2 

119. 3 121. 7 124. 3 124. 9 

122. 7 122. 6 122. 5 117. 4 

121. 8 124. 7 125. 9 129. 7 

136. 9 143. 4 148. 9 157. 5 

166. 0 169. 4 173. 4 176. 7 

172. 8 172. 0 171. 8 162. 7 

149. 7 148. 6 154. 3 

30. 7 

29. 6 

32. 7 

35. 6 

37. 3 

39. 8 

38. 2 

42. 7 

45. 7 

46. 7 

43. 4 

49. 0 

50. 9 

51. 6 

57. 0 

61. 3 

68. 7 

80. 1 

93. 3 

100. 0 

111. 6 

122. 6 

121. 3 

125. 5 

146. 7 

I 171. 4 

169. 8 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

1 24.*4 24* 9 25! 9 26.*3 

i 26. 6 26. 4 25. 9 25. 9 

25. 8 26. 1 27. 0 2.1.8 

30. 4 31. 8 32. 7 33. 5 

34. 3 34. 9 35. 4 36. 0 

37. 1 38. 2 38. 8 38. 8 

38. 2 37. 2 36. 3 36. 0 

36. 4 36. 9 38. 5 40. 0 

41. 2 43. 3 44. 6 45. 3 

45. 9 46. 7 47. 8 48. 2 

47. 0 44. 7 43. 2 43. 7 

44. 4 46. 1 49. 0 50. 6 

51. 7 53. 7 54. 0 53. 6 

53. 2 51. 9 51. 4 51. 8 

53. 1 54. 6 56. 2 57. 7 

58. 4 59. 2 60. 9 63. 3 

64. 4 66. 0 67. 8 69. 9 

73. 2 76. 8 78. 9 81. 7 

85. 3 90. 1 94. 2 96. 9 

99. 1 99. 3 100. 1 101. 5 

103. 7 107. 4 109. 6 112. 2 

117. 9 124. 3 129. 3 132. 0 

133. 7 130. 9 132. 8 129. 8 

124. 1 121. 6 124. 9 125. 4 

124. 1 127. 6 130. 6 135. 8 

144. 2 154. 5 165. 9 172. 6 

178. 0 188. 6 196. 8 199. 3 

193. 9 180. 7 174. 8 

25. 4 

1 26. 2 

27. 0 

32. 1 

35. 2 

38. 2 

36. 9 

37. 9 

43. 6 

47. 2 

44. 6 

47. 5 

53. 3 

52. 1 

55. 4 

60. 4 

67. 0 

77. 6 

91. 6 

100. 0 

108. 2 

125. 9 

131. 8 

124. 0 

129. 4 

159. 3 

190. 7 

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 

123! 8 122! 3 119*.5 117*.9 

113. 1 111. 9 113. 4 112. 6 

116. 9 122. 2 126. 7 119. 9 

116. 4 111. 9 108. 4 107. 1 

106. 0 104. 5 105. 0 108. 4 

107. 5 105. 5 103. 3 100. 7 

99. 9 101. 8 104. 7 108. 1 

111. 3 114. 5 112. 6 111. 4 

109. 5 105. 4 101. 3 103. 4 

102. 9 100. 6 98. 5 94. 2 

91. 1 93. 4 100. 9 104. 0 

107. 1 108. 3 100. 1 97. 5 

99. 7 95. 8 94. 1 92. 9 

92. 5 97. 5 101. 5 104. 7 

104. 3 104. 0 102. 3 100. 9 

101. 3 102. 5 101. 9 100. 3 

101. 1 102. 3 103. 3 102. 9 

102. 7 101. 8 103. 5 104. 6 

104. 6 102. 5 100. 8 100. 0 

98. 2 99. 1 100. 6 102. 0 

103. 1 102. 5 103. 4 103. 5 

101. 1 98. 0 96. 1 94. 6 

91. 8 93. 6 92. 3 90. 5 

98. 2 102. 6 100. 8 103. 4 

110. 3 112. 9 114. 0 116. 0 

115. 1 109. 6 104. 5 102. 4 

97. 1 91. 2 87. 3 81. 7 

77. 2 82. 3 88. 3 

120. 9 

112. 8 

121. 4 

111. 0 

106. 0 

104. 2 

103. 6 

112. 4 

104. 9 

99. 0 

97. 4 

103. 2 

95. 6 

99. 0 

102. 9 

101. 5 

10 2. 4 

103. 2 

102. 0 

100. 0 

103. 1 

97. 5 

92. 0 

101. 2 

113. 3 

107. 9 

89. 3 

1977 

Digitized for FRASER 

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
VI. INDEXPages 

1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing 15, 78 

2. Accession rate, manufacturing 18, 78 

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing 18, 78 

4. Quit rate, manufacturing 18, 79 

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs ... . 18, 79 

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in current dollars 26, 79 

7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in 1972 dollars . 26, 80 

8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials in 1972 

dollars 26, 80 

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor 

space 32, 80, 

81 

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars 32, 81 

11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations 33, 145 

12. Index of net business formation 32, 81 

13. Number of new business incorporations 32, 82 

14. Current liabilities of business failures 44, 82 

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations 38, 145 

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars 37, 145 

17. Index of price per unit of labor cost, manufacturing 39, 82 

18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars 37, 145 

19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks 36, 83, 

132 

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars 32, 83 

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing 15, 83 

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic income 37, 145 

23. Index of industrial materials prices 36, 84 

24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in 

current dollars 26, 84 

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 26, 84 

27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in 

1972 dollars 26, 85 

28. New private housing units started, total 35, 85 

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 35, 85 

30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all 

industries, in 1972 dollars 51, 145 

31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total 28, 86 

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries 28, 86 

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance 

companies 42, 86 

34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars 37, 146 

35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars 37, 146 

36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars 28, 87 

37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey 20, 87 

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, 

manufacturing 28, 88 

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over 45, 88 

40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goods-producing industries—mining, 

manufacturing, and construction 15, 88 

41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey 15, 89 

42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey .. . 20, 89 

43. Unemployment rate, total 20, 89 

44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over 20, 90 

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs 18, 90 

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers 19, 90 

47. Index of industrial production, total 24, 91 

48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments 15, 92 

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars 25, 146 

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars 49, 146 

51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dollars 22, 93 

52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars 22, 94 

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction in 1972 

dollars 22, 94 

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars 31, 94 

55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 50, 147 

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars 28, 95 

57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars 28, 95 

58. Index of consumer sentiment 31, 147 

59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars 31, 95 

60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series 46) to number of persons 

unemployed (series 37) 19, 96 

61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total 34, 147 

200 

FINDING GUIDE 

Pages 

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing 39, 96 

63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector 39, 147 

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income 56, 147 

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all manufacturing 

industries 28, 96 

66. Consumer installment debt 43, 97 

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities 46, 147 

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product (1972 dollars), 

nonfinancial corporations 39, 148 

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction 

expenditures 28, 97 

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value, in 1972 dollars 28, 97 

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value, in current dollars 28, 98 

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large 

commercial banks 43, 98 

73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures 24, 98 

74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures 24, 99 

75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods 24, 99 

76. Index of industrial production, business equipment 24, 99 

77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales (series 57), 

manufacturing and trade, total 28, 100 

78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturing 28, 100 

79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption 

adjustments in current dollars 37, 148 

80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation and capital consumption 

adjustments in 1972 dollars 37, 148 

81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation and capital consumption 

adjustments to total corporate domestic income 37, 148 

82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing [FRB] 25, 148 

83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing [BEA] 25, 148 

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials 25, 149 

85. Change in money supply Ml (demand deposits plus currency) 40, 100 

86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential, in 1972 dollars . 51, 149 

87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures, in 1972 

dollars 51, 149 

88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential producers' durable 

equipment, in 1972 dollars 51, 149 

89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total residential, in 1972 dollars ... . 51, 149 

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age 20, 101 

91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks 20, 101 

92. Change in sensitive prices (WPI of crude materials excluding foods, feeds, 

and fibers) 60, 101, 

102 

93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) 45, 102 

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve 45, 102 

95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income 43, 103 

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 26, 103 

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing 33, 149 

102. Change in money supply M2 (demand deposits and currency plus time deposits 40, 103 

at commercial banks other than large CD's) 

104. Change in total liquid assets 40, 104 

105. Money supply Ml (demand deposits plus currency) in 1972 dollars 40, 104 

106. Money supply M2 (demand deposits and currency plus time deposits at 

commercial banks other than large CD's) in 1972 dollars 40, 105 

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml 40, 150 

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 40, 105 

109. Average prime rate charged by banks 46, 105 

110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets 44, 150 

112. Net change in bank loans to businesses 43, 106 

113. Net change in consumer installment debt 43, 106 

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills 46, 106 

115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds 46, 107 

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds 46, 107 

117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average 46, 107 

118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages 46, 108 

119. Federal funds rate 46, 108 

200. Gross national product in current dollars 49, 150 

213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars 49, 150 

217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars 49, 151 

220. National income in current dollars 55, 151 

223. Personal income in current dollars 22, 108 

The Handbook of Cyclical Indicators 

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SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued 

Pages 

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars 22, 151 

225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars 22, 151 

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars 22, 151 

230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars 50, 151 

231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars 50, 152 

232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current dollars 50, 152 

233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in 1972 dollars 50, 152 

235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent of gross national 

product 50, 152 

236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in current dollars 50, 152 

237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current dollars 50, 152 

238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in 1972 dollars 50, 153 

239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972 dollars 50, 153 

240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dollars 51, 153 

241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dollars 51, 153 

242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in current dollars 51, 153 

243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars 51, 153 

245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 

in current dollars 51, 154 

247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 

as a percent of gross national product 51, 154 

248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential, as a percent of gross 

national product 51, 154 

249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as a percent of gross 

national product 51, 154 

250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and 

product accounts 54, 154 

251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross national product 54, 154 

252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product 

accounts 54, 155 

253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars; national income and product 

accounts 54, 155 

255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product 

accounts 54, 155 

256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product 

accounts 54, 155 

257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national income and product 

accounts .' 54, 155 

260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in current dollars 53, 155 

261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in 1972 dollars 53, 156 

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars 53, 156 

263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars 53, 156 

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross 

national product 53, 156 

266. State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars . 53, 156 

267. State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars . . 53, 156 

268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of 

gross national product 53, 157 

280. Compensation of employees 56, 157 

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption 

adjustments 56, 157 

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption 

adjustments as a percent of national income 56, 157 

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment 57, 157 

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of 

national income 57, 157 

286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments . 37, 153 

287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 

as a percent of national income 37, 158 

288. Net interest 57, 158 

289. Net interest as a percent of national income 57, 158 

290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or deficit 58, 158 

292. Personal saving 58, 158 

293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of disposable personal 

income 58, 159 

295. Business saving 37, 159 

298. Government surplus or deficit, total 58, 159 

310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product 49, 159 

311. Fixed weighted price index, gross business product 58, 160 

320.v Index of consumer prices, all items 59, 109 

322. Index of consumer prices, food 59, 110 

330. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities 59, 111 

331. Index of wholesale prices, crude materials for further processing 60, 112 

332. Index of wholesale prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components .. 60, 113 

BCD 1977 

Pages 

333. Index of wholesale prices, producer finished goods 60, 114 

334. Index of wholesale prices, consumer finished goods 60, 115 

340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm economy 15, 116 

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production workers, private nonfarm 

economy 15, 117 

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector 56, 160 

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business 

sector 56, 161 

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries—first year average (mean) 

changes 62, 161 

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries—average (mean) 

changes over life of contract 62, 161 

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector 61, 161 

370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business sector 61, 162 

441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey 20, 118 

442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey 20, 118 

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor force survey 20, 118 

445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor force survey 20, 119 

446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age, labor force survey 20, 119 

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force survey 20, 119 

448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic reasons, labor force survey . 20, 120 

451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over 20, 120 

452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over 20, 120 

453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age 20, 121 

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income and product accounts . . 62, 162 

501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts 62, 162 

502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and product accounts 62, 162 

510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national income and product 

accounts 62, 163 

511. State and local government receipts; national income and product accounts .. . 62, 163 

512. State and local government expenditures; national income and product accounts 62, 163 

516. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding military assistance . 63, 121 

525. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions 64, 121 

548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products 26, 122 

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for national defense 53, 163 

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total 64, 122 

604. Exports of agricultural products 64, 122 

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 64, 123 

612. General imports, total 64, 123 

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 64, 123 

616. Imports of automobiles and parts 64, 124 

618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants 65, 163 

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military 65, 163 

622. Balance on merchandise trade 65, 164 

651. Income on U.S. investments abroad 65, 164 

652. Income on foreign investments in the United States 65, 164 

667. Balance on goods and services 65, 164 

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants . 65, 164 

669. Imports of goods and services, total 65, 164 

721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, 

index of industrial production 66, 124 

722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 66, 124 

723. Canada, index of industrial production 66, 125 

725. West Germany, index of industrial production 66, 125 

726. France, index of industrial production 66, 125 

727. Italy, index of industrial production 66, 126 

728. Japan, index of industrial production 66, 126 

732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices 68, 126, 

127 

733. Canada, index of consumer prices 68, 127 

735. West Germany, index of consumer prices 68, 128 

736. France, index of consumer prices 68, 123, 

129 

737. Italy, index of consumer prices 69, 129 

738. Japan, index of consumer prices 69, 130 

742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices 70, 130 

743. Canada, index of stock prices 70, 131 

745. West Germany, index of stock prices 70, 131 

746. France, index of stock prices 70, 131 

747. Italy, index of stock prices 70, 132 

748. Japan, index of stock prices 70, 132 

910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators 15, 133 

913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments 15, 134 

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments 15, 134 

915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing 15, 134 

201 

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SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued 

916. Composite index of profitability 15, 135 

917. Composite index of money and financial flows 15, 135 

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators 15, 136 

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators 15, 137 

940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index 

(series 930) 15, 135 

950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components 15, 138 

951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components 15, 138, 

139 

952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components 15, 139 

961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production workers, manufacturing—21 

industries 15, 140 

962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs— 

47 areas 18, 140, 

141 

963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls— 

172 industries 15, 141 

964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods 

industries—35 industries 26, 142 

965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries 33, 165 

966. Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries 24, 142, 

143 

967. Diffusion index of industrial materials prices—13 industrial materials 36, 143 

968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—62-82 industries 36, 144 

969. Diffusion index of profits, manufacturing—about 1,000 corporations 48, 165 

970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total— 

18 industries 34, 165, 

166 

971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 700 businessmen reporting 48, 166 

972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 

businessmen reporting 48, 166 

973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen 

reporting 48, 167 

974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 

businessmen reporting 48, 167 

975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 

businessmen reporting 48, 167 

976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about 700 businessmen 

reporting 48, 168 

977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about 450 businessmen 

reporting 48, 168 

978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 250 businessmen reporting 48, 168 

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis