NEMA Presentation

DOE Workshop

June 1, 1999

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

NEMA Presentation 

DOE Workshop 

June 1, 1999 
Errors in the Analyses

• Derivation of Input Watts

• Non-use of Marginal Electricity Prices

• Coefficient of Utilization

• Analyzing fixtures rather than ballasts

• Three and four lamp fixtures using two

magnetic ballasts v. one electronic ballast

• Spreadsheet input functions don't wor'^:

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Errors in the Analyses 

• Derivation of Input Watts 

• Non-use of Marginal Electricity Prices 

• Coefficient of Utilization 

• Analyzing fixtures rather than ballasts 

• Three and four lamp fixtures using two 

magnetic ballasts v. one electronic ballast 

• Spreadsheet input functions don't work 
Dig Muted Items in Analyses

• Ballast Prices

• T12 versus T8 comparison

• Electricity prices for magnetic ballast users

same as electronic

• Discount rates

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Disputed Items in the Analyses 

• Ballast Prices 

• Tl2 versus T8 comparison 

• Electricity prices for magnetic ballast users 

same as electronic 

• Discount rates 
Life G ycJte Cost Resu

AEO 1999 minus CMER*

Ballast Types LCC

Savings

1L "M

EEM

cc -$6

ERS $7

ERS, T8 $20

2 Lamp

EEM

CC

ERS, T8

$1

$24

2F96T12(C)

EEM

EIS $17

2F96T12II® (I)

EEM

CC -$1

ERS $13

4%

Savings

as % of

LCC

-4%

5%

13%

0%

11%

4%

0%

3%

-$5

$2

$12

$0

$16

$9

8%

-4%

2%

3%

0%

2%

LCC

Savings

-$5

-$4

$0

16% 28%

Savings LCC Savings

as % of Savings as % of

LCC LCC

-5%

-4%

4%

0%

4%

0%

-$5

-$8

-$3

-7%

-12%

-4%

-$2 -2%

-$6 -4%

-1% -$10 -4%

*with correct NEMA inputs except marginal average electricity prices for the population of magnetic ballast purchasers

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Life Cycle Cost Results 

AEO 1·999 minus CMER * 

Ballast Types Lee 

Savings 

Savings 

as% of 

Lee 

Lee 

Savings Savings 

-1% 

-1% 

Lee 

Savings 

*with correct NEMA inputs except marginal average electricity prices for the population of magnetic ballast purchasers 

Savings 

as% of 

Lee 
Life Cycle Cost Results

Magnetic users Marginal Electricity Prices*

Ballast Types

CC

ERS

ERS, T8

^ La

EEM

2F96T12 (C

EEM

EIS

2F96T 1213®

EEM

LCC

Savings

-$7

$6

$17

-$3

$10

Savings

as % of

LCC

4%

12%

8%

LCC Savings

Savings as % of

LCC

*with correct NEMA inputs

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Life Cycle Cost Results 

Magnetic users Marginal Electricity Prices* 

Ballast Types Lee Savings Lee 

Savings as % of Savings 

Lee Savings 

Savings Savings as % of 

Lee Lee 

*with correct NEMA inputs 
LCC Sensitivity Results

Percent Losers if Electronic Standard*

Discount Rate 4% 8%

Ballast Type

1 F40T 12 26.6% 49.9%

2F40T 12 22.4% 46.6%

2F32T8 vs. 0.5% 2.3%

2F40T 12

2F96T 12 (C) 9.4% 24.7%

2F96T 12H® (I) 26.0% 44.5%

16% 28%

8 1. 8% 96. 8%

80.3% 95. 8%

11.6% 39.9%

59.5% 87.7%

71.9% 91.0%

*with correct NEMA inputs except marginal average electricity prices for the population of magnetic ballast purchasers

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

LCC Sensitivity Results 

Percent Losers if Electronic Standard* 

Discount Rate 4% 8% 16% 28% 

Ballast TYQe 

1F40T12 26.6% 49.9% 81.8% 96.8% 

2F40T12 22.4% 46.6% 80.3% 95.8% 

2F32T8 vs. 0.5% 2.3% 11.6% 39.9% 

2F40T12 

2F96T12 (C) 9.4% 24.7% 59.5% 87.7% 

2F96T12HO (I) 26.0% 44.5% 71.9% 91.0% 

*with correct NEMA inputs except marginal average electricity prices for the population of magnetic ballast purchasers 
Tational Ene rgy Savmg *

Quads

Quads plus

HVAC

Total Benefit

Costs

NPV

F^^esults*

1B 2A 3A 3B 4A 4

1.84 1.59 2.81

1.84 1.59 2.81

3.22 3.09 4.92

2.51 1.65 2.64

0.71 1.44 2.27

Spreadsheet does NOT function

*For units sold from 2003 to 2030, discounted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $), using NEMA Ballast Prices,

AEO 1999 Reference Forecast minus Consumer Marginal Energy Rates (5.7%), coefficient of utilization (CU)

corrections, and corrected ballast wattages

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

ational Energy Savings Results * 

Scenario IB 2A 2B 3A 3B 4A 4B 

Quads l.84 l.59 2.81 

Quads plus l.84 l.59 2.81 

HVAC Spreadsheet does NOT function 

Total Benefit 3.22 3.09 4.92 

Costs 2.51 l.65 2.64 

NPV 0.71 l.44 2.27 

*For units sold from 2003 to 2030, discounted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $), using NEMA Ballast Prices, 

AEO 1999 Reference Forecast minus Consumer Marginal Energy Rates (5.70/0), coefficient of utilization (CU) 

corrections, and corrected ballast wattages 
Manufacturer impact Analysis

inancia impacts

• Existing manufacturers of magnetic and

electronic ballasts and the industry as a

whole would suffer, under every scenario,

substantial reductions in cash flow,

profitability, and net present value

• Manufacturers that produce both magnetic

and electronic ballasts, would lose 39% -

54% of their value, and the industry as a

whole would lose 28% - 36% of its value

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

Results - Financial Impacts 

• Existing manufacturers of magnetic and 

electronic ballasts and the industry as a 

whole would suffer, under every scenario, 

substantial reductions in cash flow, 

profitability, and net present value 

• Manufacturers that produce both magnetic 

and electronic ballasts, would lose 39% ... 

54% of their value, and the industry as a 

whole would lose 28% .. 36% of its value 
Manufacturer Impact Analysis

IF esults - r ash Flows

CASH FLOW TOTALS - SUBGROUP 1

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts: Electronic Ballast Standard

60

50

40

30

20

10

--®- Base

Standard

0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

anufacturer Impact Analysis 

R suIts .. Cash Flows 

CASH FWW TOTALS - SUBGROUP 1 

Fluorescent Lamp BaJJosts: Electronic Ballast Standard 

60~--~----------------------------------------~ 

so 

40 

§ 

~ 30 

20 

10 

o~--------------------------------------------~ 

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

""'-Base 

--Standard 
6UP

44 ier Impact Analysis

• The SIA does not contain an adequate

comparable examination of impacts on

allied producers, such as lamp

manufacturers and luminaire manufacturers

• The SIA's cursory analysis of impacts on

allied producers is especially unjustified

because of DOE's focus on fixtures and

lighting systems in conducting its life cycle

cost analysis

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Supplier Impact Analysis 

• The SIA does not contain an adequate 

comparable examination of impacts on 

allied producers, such as lamp 

manufacturers and luminaire manufacturers 

• The SIA' s cursory analysis of impacts on 

allied producers is especially unjustified 

because of DOE's focus on fixtures and 

lighting systems in conducting its life cycle 

cost analysis 
Sup 1?I'er Hrnpact A

Financial ,

• The supplier industries in aggregate lose

between $7 million and $21 million NPV,

16% - 39% of their value

• Over 300 US jobs would be lost due to an

amended ballast standard

• One and possibly two plants would be

closed

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

upplier Impact Analysis R sultsFinancial Impacts 

• The supplier industries in aggregate lose 

between $7 million and $21 million NPV, 

16% - 39% of their value 

• Over 300 US jobs would be lost due to an 

amended ballast standard 

• One and possibly two plants would be 

closed 
Summary

The only standard the analyses justify is a

reaffirmation of the existing standards

• LCC and NES are badly flawed, they

cannot be cited for any conclusion

The MIA rebuttal presumption

- plant closures

- job losses

- negative financial impact

• Rulemaking process should be stopped

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

ummary 

• The only standard the analyses justify is a 

reaffirmation of the existing standards 

• LCC and NBS are badly flawed, they 

cannot be cited for any conclusion 

• The MIA rebuttal presumption 

- plant closures 

-job losses 

- negative financial impact 

• Rulemaking process should be stopped 
Market Penetration of Electromc

liasts

• Electronic ballast penetration of the total

commercial and industrial lighting market

increased to 55% in 1998

• 63% of ballasts used for new construction,

renovations and retrofits were electronic in

1998

- 70% of the lamps operated by these ballasts

were operated by electronic ballasts in 1998

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Market Penetration of Electronic 

Ballasts 

• Electronic ballast penetration of the total 

commercial and industrial lighting market 

increased to 55% in 1998 

• 63 % of ballasts used for new construction, 

renovations and retrofits were electronic in 

1998 

- 70% of the lamps operated by these ballasts 

were operated by electronic ballasts in 1998 
Market Penetration

Electronic Ballast Shipments

Census Es timated Lamps

Re port TotalIndus y Ballas ted 10

Ballast 10 Class Class

S hi ents ..................................... Comm/Ind Comm/Ind

1993 24,448 22,913 59,574

1994 24,606 25,991 67.577

................ ........ ...... ......................... ................ ... .............................................. .... ....... ........ ......... . .. . .. ... . .. ....

1996 , , ,

............................. ............... ................................... .............................. ...................... ................................................. .

..............................................................................................

1997 36,543 35,447 92,161

32,894 33,100 86,060

30 342 29735 77311

....................................... ..............................................................:............. .... ..........................................

1998 39,783 1 37,794 98,264

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Market Penetration 

Electronic Ballast Shipments 
Vi arket Penetration

Magnetic Ballast Shipments

Census Estimated Estimated Umps

Report NEMA 10 Residential Total Industry: Ballasted

Ballast Class Product 10 Class Class

Shipments Shipments Shipments Comm/In Comm/In

.,

....................................: ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1993 54,790 ............ ...............39,091 120 38 971 76,773

1994 55,991 36,154 130 36,024 70,967

1995 47,648 33,020 340 32,680 64,380

1996 42,841

1997 42,887

1998 42,561

31475 ; .................. ,1400 30,075 59,248

33,959 2,900 31,059 61,186

34,343 3,400 30,943 60,958

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

arket Penetration 

Magnetic Ballast Shipments 

Census I NEMA 10 Estimated. Estimated I Lamps 

Reportl Residential I Total Industryl Ballasted 10 

Ballast I Class Product! 10 Class ! Class 

. Shipments I Shipments l Shipments I CommlInd I CommlInd 

=:~~~::r:=~~,~~::==l:~~~l:~:J:=~~~:I:~~,~~~=:J::=:~~~~. 

:I~~=h.~~=~Jr:=~~:==·=·::~·Jf==~~~4:I~~[~~~~~ 

1995 340 

:~~g:=r=!=~. 
Market Penetration

Lamps Ballasted by Electronic Ballasts

'Total Ballasts ectronic

Total

Lamps

Shipments Ballasts Ballasted' Flectronically

1993 61,884 37%

........................................ .............. . ....... ....................... ............... ... ......

...... ........................................... ,.... ..... ..... .. . . ........ ..... . .................... ....... ...........

1994 62,015 42% 138,544 49%

.................................. ......................

1995 65,780 50% 150440 57%

........................................

........................................ .......................

.

.............................................................................i .. .

. . ... . . ... . . . .

................ ......... . . . ... . ... . . ....... ...... ......................

1996 ........................59.,810...............::.............. 50 ®/®.................... 136 559 57 ®/®......................

9

................... ........... ............................ ................................................... .................................................... .. . .. ;..........................................

1997 66,506 ,

....................................................................................................................................................................:............................................................. 53% 153 348 60 %

1998 68,737 55% 159,222 62%

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

arket Penetration 

Lamps Ballasted by Electronic Ballasts 

:: 

Percent Total I Percent Lamps 

~ Total Ballasts:i Nectronic Lamps I Ballasts 

1998 : 68,737 :: 550/0 i : 159,222, 62% 
Market Penetration=

1998 Ballast Shipments to OEM's and

Distributors

26,456

OEM/Distributor 1998 10 Class Comm/Ind

ectr lc Magnetic

Dist Total

11,338 37,794 21041 9,902 1 30943

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Market Penetration 

1998 Ballast Shipments to OEM's and 

Distributors 

:1 FJectronic :~ ~I Magnetic I" 
iAarket penetration

1998 Ballast Shipments in the Replacement

and the New Construction / Renovation /

Retrofit Markets

Ballasts

Replacement

Magnetic Electronic Total

.......................... ..... ......... ................................ ......... .......................................

9,407 567 9,974

New Cons truction/Renovati on/Retrofit

Percent

Magnetic Electronic Total Electronic

21,536 37,227 58,763 63%

Lamps

Ballasted 18.531 1,474 20,005 42,427 96,790 139,217 70 %

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Market Penetration 

1998 Ballast Shipments in the Replacement 

and the New Construction / Renovation / 

Retrofit Markets 

Replacement.. .. . . ~ NewConstruction/RenovationIRetrofit 

=~== ===:::.:::.===::~.~2=:.~~:= :·:=:::==·f~=:":F==1~e::~' 

Lamps 

Ballasted 

Magnetic I Electronic I Total Magnetic I Electronic I Total I Electronic 
OE Supported Market 1-givers

• Revised ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1

- Adopt rule to include revision in EPACT 1992

- Encourage states to adopt

- Education

• DOE Federal Building Energy Standard

• FEMP

• Vision 2020

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

DOE Supported Market Drivers 

• Revised ASHRAE/IESNA 9001 

- Adopt rule to include revision in EP ACT 1992 

- Encourage states to adopt 

- Education 

• DOE Federal Building Energy Standard 

• FEMP 

• Vision 2020 
Other Market Drivers

• Energy Cost Savings Council

• Energy Star

Light Right Consortium

• National Dimming Initiative

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 68FF

Other Market Drivers 

• Energy Cost Savings Council 

• Energy Star 

• Light Right Consortium 

• National Dimming Initiative