- E--kM1 ST)-'7 LfL1D / Y c4C 

# Central Air Conditioner Standards Workshop December 9, 1999 0 , . . .**~**-**~** ..- 

# CentralAir Conditioner Standards Workshop December 9, 1999EE-RMISTD-8-440 

### Wnorkshnn Pirnnpoe 

### * Present overview ofmethodologies and results of analyses completed for ANOPR * Provide opportunity for comments and questions * Present Plans for analyses for NOPR * Provide opportunity for suggested improvements in methodologies, assumptions, and data sources.

2 · , , EE-RM/STD-98-440 • Present overview ofmethodologies and results of analyses completed for ANOPR . • Provide opportunity for comments and questions • Present Plans for analyses for NOPR • Provide opportunity for suggested improvements in methodologies, assumptions, and data sources.

2Iqcc EE-RM/STD-98440 

## ANV PR ,rPhodj,1 * November 24, 1999 - Published in Federal Register 

### * February 7, 2000 - Comment period closes



### 3 EE_RM/STD-98-440 {'-icc
• November 24, 1999 - Published in Federal Register • February 7, 2000 - Commentperiod closes

3EE-RM/STD-98-440 c 

### WoVr nlh n n1fyhop ntre Li6 

### * Agenda * Copies ofpresentations * Compact Disc with:

- Federal Register notice

- Technical Support Document

- Excel Spreadsheet Models 4 EE-RM/STD-98-440 tt.{ cc • Agenda • Copies ofpresentations • Compact Disc with:

- Federal Register notice

- Technical Support Document

- Excel Spreadsheet Models 4EE-RM/STD-98-440

· Objective: to provide estim Ate ofprodut ct f 

### * Objective: to provide estimate ofproduct cost for 

### economic analyses * Industry cost analysis

- industry-provided manufacturing cost multipliers * Reverse engineering analysis

- baseline and higher manufacturing costs

- validate industry data 5 " . . EE_RM/STD-98-440 • Objective: to provide estimate ofproduct cost for' economic analyses • Industry cost analysis

- industry-provided manufacturing cost multipliers • Reverse engineering analysis

- baseline and higher manufacturing costs

- validate industry data 5EE-RM/STD-98-440 c I ssVes^ for ( 

### Comment * Industryversus reverseengineeringcosts * Emergingtechnologies * Steady-state efficiency (EER) * Heat pump efficiency * Capacity * Niche products * Alternativerefrigerants * Retail markups * Elasticities in shipments forecasts * Adverse consumer impacts * Non-regulatory alternatives * Candidate standards levels and scenarios

6 •Industry versus reverse engineering costs •Emerging technologies • Steady-state efficiency (EER) • Heatpump efficiency • Capacity 

### •Nicheproducts •Alternative refrigerants • Retail markups • Elasticities in shipments forecasts • Adverse consumer impacts • Non-regulatory alternatives • Candidate standards levels and scenarios

6 EE-RM/STD-98-440 tL{ccEE-RM/STD-98-440 

## IndustryandReverse Engineering Analyses 4. Split AIC 3.5 / -2.5-/ _ ARI Max 0 / -/ - ARI Mean 2o / / 1.6 ' ~ E --- ARI Min 1.5."' - - ADL Mean 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Efficiency Level (SEER) 

### - III o () EE_RM/STO-98-440 

# Industry andReverse . EngineeringAnalyses**4~----------------------------------** 3.5 +-------------------------r------------- Split Ale**3+---------------~~---------------- ~**  2.5 +----------------/--------------------- --ARt Max .!!! CD " 

# - 

# - -"...**2+------------+---7~--_=~~--------** 1.5**+-----..."..L.---,~___:;;,~~----------------** 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Efficiency Level (SEER) - - ARt Mean --ARt Min

- - ADL Mean 11./ccEE-RM/STD-98-440 

## A, Emerging Technologies 

## 5a'~ Considered 

# P.. * Microchannel heat exchangers * Advanced compressors * Variable speed compressor motors * Advanced fan motor controls

8 EE-RM/STD-98-440 

# Emerging Technologies Considered • Microchannel heat exchangers • Advanced compressors • Variable speed compressor motors • Advanced fan motor controls

8 (vee.EE-RM/STD-98-440 C- 

## · 

# A Nirchp Prndutrf.

- Ml I, W - -A M WIW WIU' WI 5- 

### * Ductless split systems * High-velocity, small duct systems * Vertical packaged, wall-mounted systems * Through-the-wall condensing units

9 · ' EE-RM/STD-S8-440 l <.{ cc

# Niche Prod'lcts • Ductless split systems • High-velocity, small duct systems • Vertical packaged, wall-mounted systems • Through-the-wall condensing units

9EE-RM/STD-98-440 I in!feaOttMM A 1PI a B P *Ab %W, M ww a 

### * HCFC-22 used in analyses * Alternative refrigerants:

- HFC-407C

- HFC-410A 10 EE-RM/STD-98-440 1'-1 cc-
• HCFC-22 used in analyses • Alternative refrigerants: -HFC-407C -HFC-410A 10EE-RM/STD-98-440 / 

## 6FL Life-cycle Costand 

# S ~"BP ConsumerSubgroup

Life-cycle costs and payback for consumers * Life-cycle costs and paybacks for low-income and elderly 11 

# Life-cycle Cost and ConsumerSubgroup • Life-cycle costs and payback for cons.umers EE-RM/STD-98-440 It{cc..

• Life-cycle costs and paybacks for low-income and elderly 11EE-RM/STD-98-44V1 cc 

## il, Life-cycle CostAnalysis ^ 

# Issues Economic assumptions:

- Equipment lifetime

- Discount rate

- Time-of-use electricity prices

- Hours ofusage 12 

# Life-cycle CostAnalysis Issues Economic assumptions:

- Equipment lifetime

- Discount rate

- Time-of-use electricityprices

- Hours ofusage 12 EE-RM/STD-98-4401lf ccEE-RM/STD-98-440 C c ha 

## Shipments and qVH^ NationalEnergy Savings Forecasts with and without further standards:

- Shipments

- National energy consumption

- Net-present value 13 '. . EE-RM/STD-98-440 

# Shipments and NationalEnergySavings • Forecasts with and without further standards:

- Shipments

- National energy consumption

- Net-presentvalue 13 /«..( ccEE-RM/STD-98-440 /f CC 

## ii ationalEnergy Savings Analysik' 

## 5iqV~ Issues * Methodologies * Assumptions * Data sources 14 EE_RM/STD-98-440 lye c

## ationalEnergySavingsAnalys· Issues • Methodologies • Assumptions • Data sources 14EE-RM/STD-98-440 I v c< 

## Candidate Standard 

# Levels Candidate standard levels: -SEER 11 -SEER 12

- SEER 13 Maximum Technologically Feasible (approximately SEER 20 level) 15 · ·.l . 

# Candidate Standard Leveis • Candidate standard levels:

- SEER 11

- SEER 12

- SEER 13 EE-RM/STD-98-440 f'-l cc...

Maximum Technologically Feasible (approximately SEER20 level) 15EE-RM/STD-98-440 I ' cc 

## g] ManufacturerImpact 

# f EWS" iAnalysis * Forecast changes in industry:

- cash flow

- employment 16 ." . 

# ManufacturerImpact Analysis • Forecast changes in industry:

- cash flow

- employment
16 EE-RM/STD-98-440 IL{ cc.EE-RM/STD-98-440 / q c c 

## ^1 ManufacturerImpact ^ 

## Air 

## Analysis Issues * Methodologies * Assumptions * Data sources 17 

# ManufacturerImpact AnalysisIssues • Methodologies • Assumptions • Data sources 17 EE-RM/STD-98-440 II.{CC.EE-RM/STD-98-440 I I c 

## ~~ Net NationalEmployment ^ 

# Impacts *Changes in net national employment, in addition to impacts on industry employment due to potential standards 18 .. ,. .. EE-RM/STD-98-440 1<-( CL 

# NetNationalEmployment Impacts -Changes in net national employment, in addition to impacts on industry employment due to potential standards 18Iq cc EE-RM/STD-98-440 

## s Net NationalEmployment : arti Impact Issues * Methodologies * Assumptions * Data sources 19 EE_RM/STD-98-440 

# NetNationalEmployment ImpactIssues • Methodologies • Assumptions • Data sources 19EE-RM/STD-98-440 

# *~ Utility ImpactAnalysis and A 

## :p EnvironmentalAssessment

· Utility Impact Analysis

- impacts on electric utilities

- fuel switching

· Environmental Assessment - changes in emissions

20 EE-RM/STD-98-440 

# Utility ImpactAnalysis and EnvironmentalAssessment • Utility Impact Analysis

- impacts on electric utilities

- fuel switching • Environmental Assessment - changes in emissions

20 II.{ ccEE-RM/STD-98-440 / L/ c' I~ 

## UUtility ImpactAnalysis and 'I7'Environmental Assessment IssueWJ * Methodologies * Assumptions * Data sources

21 EE-RM/STD-98-440 I L/ CC

## UtilityImpactAnalysisand nvironmentalAssessmentIssue . • Methodologies • Assumptions • Data sources

21