U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Fact Sheet 2013–3046

July 2013

Background

The Prairie Pothole Region 

(PPR), encompassing most of 

the Northern Great Plains, once 

was one of the largest grasslandwetland ecosystems on earth. The 

ecological makeup of the region 

provides essential habitat for an 

array of wildlife, most notably 

migratory waterfowl. The ecosystem also provides necessary inputs 

for agricultural production, which 

has become the dominant land use 

over the last century. Both perennial habitat lands and agricultural 

lands retain importance economically, socially, and culturally. New 

land-use dynamics have come into 

play with expansion of oil and gas 

production. The economic influences of production land uses, 

such as agriculture and energy 

development, typically are better 

understood than is the influence of 

lands in conserved natural habitat. 

Nonetheless, perennial habitat 

lands certainly have environmental 

and economic influence, along with 

linkages to various aspects of rural 

community well-being. Research 

reported here focuses on those 

land-use dynamics and attempts to 

illuminate how economic variables 

and rural development in the PPR 

might be influenced as land uses 

change. Policy makers and land 

managers constantly are faced with 

decisions regarding land use, and 

they need information regarding 

the impacts of their decisions.

Purpose

This fact sheet highlights findings included in a comprehensive new report which investigated land-use change, economic 

characteristics, and rural community well-being in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Please refer to the end 

of this fact sheet for information on accessing the full report or individual chapters.

Figure 1. Map of the extent of the Bakken Formation and of the Williston Basin in the Prairie Pothole 

Region of the United States and Canada. Brown points represent the spatial distribution of petroleum 

wells in the region as of February 2012. Data compiled and merged by Tara Chesley-Preston, U.S. 

Geological Survey. Spatial well data were unavailable for the province of Alberta.

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

"

MONTANA

WYOMING

ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN

NORTH

DAKOTA

SOUTH

DAKOTA

MANITOBA

NEBRASKA

MINNESOTA

ONTARIO

IOWA

Pierre

Helena

Regina

Calgary

Winnipeg

Bismarck

Edmonton

Saskatoon

Des Moines

Saint Paul

Minneapolis

115° 110° 105° 100° 95° 90°

55°

50°

45°

EXPLANATION

Bakken Formation

Williston Basin

Petroleum-related wells

SRTM Shaded Relief North West derived from the Global

Digital Elevation Model data sets from the U.S. Geological

Survey's EROS Data Center. The resolution is 90 meters.

Well data accurate through February, 2012. Well data from 

Manitoba Innovation, Energy & Mines; Montana Board of 

Oil & Gas; North Dakota Industrial Commission, Oil & Gas 

Division; Saskatchewan Energy Resources; and South 

Dakota Department of Environment & Natural Resources.

0 75 150 MILES

0 150 KILOMETERS 75

!

Prairie Pothole Region

Prepared in cooperation with the Plains & Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative

Land-Use Change, Economics, and Rural Well-Being in the 

Prairie Pothole Region of the United States
Figure 2A. Percentage of county acres classified as perennial habitat in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United 

States, based on 2006 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Habitat and Population Evaluation Team (HAPET) land-cover data 

(Fry and others, 2011).

IOWA

MINNESOTA

NEBRASKA

NORTH DAKOTA

NEBRASKA

SOUTH DAKOTA

IOWA

MINNESOTA

SOUTH DAKOTA

NORTH DAKOTA

Des Moines

Pierre

Bismarck

St. Paul

104° 102° 100° 98° 96° 94° 92°

48°

46°

44°

42°

CANADA

Map

Area

NEBRASKA IOWA

SOUTH

DAKOTA

MINNESOTA

NORTH

DAKOTA

WISCONSIN

KANSAS

COLORADO

WYOMING

MONTANA

OKLAHOMA

ILLINOIS

MISSOURI

NEW

MEXICO ARKANSAS

TEXAS

EXPLANATION

Prairie Pothole counties

Incomplete / missing data

Percent habitat (by area)

0 to 15

16 to 30

31 to 45

46 to 60

61 to 82

North America Shaded Relief derived from GTOPO30, a global 

digital elevation model with a horizontal grid spacing of 30 arc

seconds (approximately 1 kilometer).

0 25 50 KILOMETERS

0 25 50 MILES

A

Evolution of Land Use in the Prairie Pothole Region

• A vast amount of land in the PPR remains in farming. The amount of cropland used for crops has remained relatively constant or 

has decreased only minimally in the last half century, currently totaling around 85 million acres.

• Farm consolidation has taken place in the region. As the overall number of farms has decreased, the average size of farms has 

increased. Over the last 50 years, average farm size has increased between 57–74 percent among PPR states.

• Crop mix continues to evolve, with record-high plantings of corn and soybeans. In the 10-year period from 1997–2007, the amount 

of land planted to corn increased by nearly 300 percent in North Dakota. From 2005–2007 alone, more than 3.2 million acres were 

converted to corn across PPR regions of Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

• Oil and gas production has soared to new heights. North Dakota recently surpassed Alaska as the number 2 oil producer in the 

nation, trailing only Texas in terms of oil volume. At the end of 2012, there were over 8,200 active oil wells in North Dakota. 
Figure 2B. Perennial habitat as defined by lands with a protected (short- and long-term) status, conserved status, and 

managed for wildlife-friendly cover in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States, shown as percentage of total county 

acres. Multiple sources used for data compilation; please refer to Appendix B of Professional Paper for complete list.

IOWA

MINNESOTA

NEBRASKA

NORTH DAKOTA

NEBRASKA

SOUTH DAKOTA

IOWA

MINNESOTA

SOUTH DAKOTA

NORTH DAKOTA

CANADA

Des Moines

Pierre

Bismarck

St. Paul

104° 102° 100° 98° 96° 94° 92°

48°

46°

44°

42°

Map

Area

NEBRASKA IOWA

SOUTH

DAKOTA

MINNESOTA

NORTH

DAKOTA

WISCONSIN

KANSAS

COLORADO

WYOMING

MONTANA

OKLAHOMA

ILLINOIS

MISSOURI

NEW

MEXICO ARKANSAS

TEXAS

0 25 50 KILOMETERS

0 25 50 MILES

North America Shaded Relief derived from GTOPO30, a global 

digital elevation model with a horizontal grid spacing of 30 arc

seconds (approximately 1 kilometer).

EXPLANATION

Prairie Pothole counties

Percent habitat (by area)

1 to 5

6 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 20

21 to 36

B

Based on land area, well-development assumptions, and various risk factors, industry experts predict the number of wells for 

complete North Dakota Bakken well development to be around 39,000, which would make the North Dakota portion of the 

Bakken Formation the largest oil field in U.S. history (Mason, 2012). Figure 1 shows the spatial distribution of petroleum wells in 

the Bakken Formation and the Williston Basin since 1925 through 2012.

• Current distribution of perennial habitat varies by county. As shown in figure 2A, some counties have very little remaining perennial 

habitat, while other counties still retain large proportions of habitat lands. The percentage of lands protected in either short- (such as 

the Conservation Reserve Program) or long-term (perpetual easements) contracts ranges from 1–40 percent of total county acreage 

(fig. 2B).

• Lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) have a large influence on perennial habitat calculations. The acres in 

the CRP stand to alter the distribution of habitat in coming years given the uncertain future and timing of expiring contracts in the 

program. After peaking in 2007, CRP acres in the PPR have declined by more than 1 million acres (roughly 18 percent), with 2010 

enrollment at just more than 4.8 million acres.
Figure 3. Farm employment by year as a percentage of total 

employment for the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States, 

1969–2010. Modified from data from the U.S. Department of 

Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (2010). (Photo: Don 

Poggensee of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural 

Resources Conservation Service.)

The Farm and Non-Farm Economies

• Many PPR counties still are considered farming-dependent. 

Farming-dependent counties are those in which farm employment constitutes 15 percent or more of total employment. 

Sheridan County and Kidder County in North Dakota exhibit 

the highest percentages. At the regional level, farm employment has a much smaller footprint. About 40 years ago, 

farm employment was more than 18 percent of the entire 

workforce in the PPR. Today it accounts for only just over 

6 percent, reflecting a 66-percent drop (fig. 3). Out of 45 PPR 

counties in Minnesota, only 15 (33 percent) are farm-dependent. Likewise, only 8 of the 35 counties (23 percent) in the 

PPR portion of Iowa are farm-dependent.

• Declining farm employment in the PPR largely is a result of 

changes in farming itself (for example, technical advances). 

Outside stressors such as competing land uses have less 

impact on farm employment than do changes in farming technology (Johnson and Rathge, 2006; Irwin and others, 2010).

• Rural areas may experience more spending leakage—dollars 

leaving the area—as farm size grows. The likelihood of farmers 

needing to purchase production inputs from outside the local 

region increases as farms become larger, more complex, and 

more specialized (Marousek, 1979; Harris and others, 2008).

• The health of the farm economy has become much more 

dependent on the health of the off-farm economy. Findings 

indicate it is difficult to support agriculture in a region 

without investing in the off-farm economy at the same time. 

A weak off-farm economy in an area experiencing farm 

consolidation is likely to lead to continuous outmigration and 

to impact negatively any local employment opportunities.

• Perennial habitat provides goods and services that have 

value to people. Examples include cleaner drinking water, 

flood regulation, pollinator habitat, and habitat suitability for 

important game species such as pheasants and waterfowl. 

• The combination of jobs in the retail trade, the arts, entertainment and recreation, and accommodation and food 

services—all sectors that reflect the tourism industry—make 

up more than 18 percent of the total private labor force in the 

multi-state PPR. In North Dakota alone, the tourism industry 

in 2010 contributed $4.62 billion to the state economy. Tourism ranks third among industries, and much of the tourism 

in North Dakota is based on natural amenities and wildlife 

populations.

• Expenditures on hunting and wildlife viewing contribute jobs 

and income in the region. Conservatively modeled, hunting 

and wildlife viewing in the PPR are estimated to be contributing close to 10,000 jobs, $760 million in labor income, and 

$450 million in value added to the regional economy.

• Restoration of perennial habitat can have positive economic 

impacts. We estimate the operational dollars (that is, excluding spending by visitors) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife 

Service National Refuge System and the Partners for Fish 

and Wildlife Program spent in the PPR are supporting close 

to 900 jobs, $40 million in labor income, and $50 million in 

value added in the region.

Rural Development and Well-Being

• Each community in the PPR is unique, and land-use decisions will have varying effects. For instance, the impact of 

removing agricultural land from production will depend on 

the economic makeup of the local region, its transportation 

infrastructure, the number of implement dealers, the number 

of absentee landowners, and other socioeconomic factors.

• High levels of economic dependence on agriculture could 

hinder economic growth. Previous research findings indicate 

that higher dependency on production agriculture, either 

overall dependence or a larger proportion of large farms, 

reduces growth rates and hinders the ability of the rural U.S. 

to grow at faster rates (Deller et al. 2005; Monchuk and others, 2005).

• Conserved/protected habitat can have a positive influence on 

job and income growth. Each community is unique. There 

is, however, an extensive and growing body of literature that 

indicates natural amenities are related positively with economic growth variables.

• Outmigration continues to be a problem for many rural communities in the Prairie Pothole Region (fig. 4). A suite of factors contributes to this trend, some of which are tied strongly 

to landscape conditions. 

• Migration patterns are influenced heavily by the level of 

natural amenities and recreational opportunities in an area. 

Our research discovered a host of qualitative and quantitative 

findings supporting this statement. This relationship especially is true when considering younger generations entering 

or looking to enter the workforce.

• Jobs follow people just as much as people follow jobs. That 

is, attract people to an area, and job opportunities will follow 

as local demand for goods and services increases.

Photo credit: Justin Goetz.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Total employment, in percent

Year
Photograph of farmland with wetland buffered by acres enrolled in the 

Conservation Reserve Program, Prairie Potholes Region, Iowa. Photograph by 

Mark Vandever, U.S. Geological Survey, 2004.

• Local stakeholders routinely report that they seek a rural 

way of life. Respondents referred to the pace of life, open 

landscapes, outdoor recreational opportunities, sense of community, and agricultural traditions as important factors.

• Quantitative growth (that is, jobs and income) is not 

necessarily better. Recent experiences in northwestern North 

Dakota corresponding to the oil and gas boom provide 

abundant evidence. While employment and income are on the 

rise, so too are crime rates, road congestion, and the cost of 

living. These trends show that the overall effect of quantitative 

growth on well-being is, at best, ambiguous. It has been stated 

that to unambiguously serve the public interest, local rural 

development policies must raise living standards, including 

both pay and the quantity and quality of local amenities.

• It is important to consider long-term health when devoting 

resources to short-term growth. It is fine to have short-term 

strategies geared towards specialized growth. The key for 

long-term health, however, is to have diversity within those 

strategies.

• Municipal revenue from preserved lands is extremely 

important to county commissioners. Refuge Revenue Sharing 

Payments—money paid to municipalities by the U.S. Fish 

and Wildlife Service in lieu of property taxes—have been 

declining steadily. However, conserved open lands typically 

require fewer municipal services.

Figure 4. United States counties with the highest outmigration levels from 1998–2008. A county is classified as high outmigration if 

it had 10 percent or higher population loss from net migration. Data modified from the Atlas of Rural and Small-town America, U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (2011). (Abbreviations here include United States mail-code state abbreviations).

TEXAS

CALIFORNIA

MONTANA

ARIZONA

NEVADA

IDAHO

NEW

MEXICO

COLORADO

OREGON

KANSAS

UTAH

SOUTH

DAKOTA

WYOMING

NEBRASKA

ILLINOIS

MINNESOTA

IOWA

NORTH

DAKOTA

OKLAHOMA

FLORIDA

WASHINGTON

MISSOURI

WISCONSIN

GEORGIA

ALABAMA

ARKANSAS

PENNSYLVANIA

NORTH

CAROLINA

LOUISIANA

INDIANA

NEW

YORK

MISSISSIPPI

TENNESSEE

VIRGINIA KENTUCKY

OHIO

SOUTH

CAROLINA

MAINE

WEST

VIRGINIA

VT

NH

CT

NJ

MD

MA

DE

RI

MICHIGAN

EXPLANATION

Counties with high outmigration, 

 1988–2008

Concluding Remarks on the Health of the Prairie 

Pothole Region Economy

Agriculture has long been the economic engine of the 

Prairie Pothole Region and remains important not only economically, but also socially and culturally. Our study, however, 

reveals that the health of the agricultural community in the 

PPR currently is interconnected in a number of ways to the 
The full report has been published as a USGS Professional 

Paper. The full report is made up of three individual 

chapters, organized as follows:

Chapter 1: Land-Use Dynamics in the Prairie Pothole Region

Chapter 2: The Prairie Pothole Region Economy and Economic 

Linkages to the Landscape

Chapter 3: Land Use and Rural Development

Executive Summary—Lessons Learned and the Future of 

Conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region

http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1800/

To download and view the full report with complete 

literature citations, or any of the individual chapters, 

please go to: 

http://www.plainsandprairiepotholeslcc.org/

rural nonfarm economy, possibly more than ever. It was once 

believed that a strong off-farm economy was dependent on a 

strong farm economy. Now, research has shown that a strong 

farm economy and the persistence of family farms are just as, 

if not more so, dependent on a strong off-farm economy and 

labor market. These findings indicate that investment of time 

and resources in strengthening the nonfarm rural economy may 

greatly assist local governing officials as they work to support 

agriculture in the community. The off-farm economy is powered 

by the demand for additional goods and services. At a local 

scale, this involves spending from local residents and from 

outsiders attracted to the area. In order to sustain or increase 

such demand, local officials must take into consideration their 

area’s endowment and the reasons people enjoy living in or visiting the area. It is well-documented that people choose to live 

in an area based both on economic opportunity and area amenities such as schools and other public services, environmental 

conditions, landscape aesthetics, and outdoor recreational 

opportunities. The tourism industry in North and South Dakota 

ranks third and second, respectively, growing at above the 

national average in both states and heavily based on outdoor 

experiences and wildlife recreation. Policymakers who think 

holistically about land-use change will understand the linkages 

between their decisions and aspects of community well-being. 

Such decisions will be extremely influential not only on the 

landscape of the region and the wildlife that inhabit it, but also 

the demographic, economic, and cultural makeup of the PPR.

For more information, contact

William Gascoigne, USGS Fort Collins Science Center,

2150 Centre Ave., Bldg. C, Fort Collins, CO 80526

Phone: 970-226-9227 E-mail: gascoignew@usgs.gov

Selected References

Deller, S.C., Marcouiller, D.W., English, D.B.K., and Lledo, V., 

2005, Regional economic growth with a focus on amenities, in

Green, G.P., Deller, S.C., and Marcouiller, D.W., eds., Amenities 

and rural development—Theory, methods, and public policy: 

Cheltenham, U.K., and Northampton, Mass., Elgar Publishing, 

New Horizons in Environmental Economics series, p. 129–152.

Fry, J.A., Xian, George, Jin, Suming, Dewitz, J.A., Homer, C.G., 

Yang, Limin, Barnes, C.A., Herold, N.D., and Wickham, J.D., 

2011, Completion of the 2006 National Land Cover Database for 

the conterminous United States: Photogrammetric Engineering 

and Remote Sensing, v. 77, no. 9, p. 858–864. 

Harris, J.M., Erickson, K., Dillard, J., Morehart, M., Strickland, R., 

Gibbs, R., Ahearn, M., Covey, T., Bagi, F., Brown, D., McGath, 

C., Vogel, S., Williams, B., and Johnson, J., 2008, Agricultural 

income and finance outlook: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Report AIS-86, December 2008, 74 p.

Irwin, E.G., Isserman, A.M., Kilkenny, M., and Partridge, M.D., 

2010, A century of research on rural development and regional 

issues: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, v. 92, no. 2, 

p. 522–553.

Johnson, K.M., and Rathge, R.W., 2006, Agricultural dependence 

and changing population in the Great Plains, in Kandel, W.A., 

and Brown, D.L., eds., Population change and rural society: 

Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Springer, 197 p.

Marousek, G., 1979, Farm size and rural communities—Some economic relationships: Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, v. 11, p. 57–61.

Mason, J., 2012, Bakken’s maximum potential oil production rate 

explored: Oil and Gas Journal, published April 2, 2012. Available at http://www.ogj.com, accessed February 2012.

Monchuk, D.C., Miranowski, J.A., Hayes, D.J. and Babcock, B.A., 

2005, An analysis of regional economic growth in the U.S. Midwest: Review of Agricultural Economics, 

v. 29, no. 1, p. 17–39.

U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service 

[USDA–ERS], 2011, Atlas of rural and small-town America—

Jobs, unemployment rate, outmigration patterns: Washington, 

D.C., U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/atlasof-rural-and-small-town-america.aspx, accessed April 3, 2012.

U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 

[USDC–BEA], 2010, Annual state and local area personal 

income and employment—Regional data: Washington, D.C., 

U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, 

unpaginated. Available at http://www.bea.gov/regional/, accessed 

May 20, 2013.

Photograph of rancher and son assessing cattle herd grazing the rolling prairie 

grasslands, Prairie Pothole Region, South Dakota. Photograph by Tim McCabe, 

United States Department of Agriculture, Natural Resource 

Conservation Service, 2011.

Project Principal Investigators

William Gascoigne, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science 

Center, Fort Collins, Colorado

Dana L.K. Hoag, Department of Agricultural and Resource 

Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

Rex Johnson, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Habitat and 

Population Evaluation Team, Fergus Falls, Minnesota

Lynne Koontz, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science 

Center, Fort Collins, Colorado

Catherine Cullinane Thomas, U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins 

Science Center, Fort Collins, Colorado