U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change 

Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding 

and Responding to Global Change

Circular 1383–A

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
Cover. Clockwise left to right: 

Landsat 7 image of circular patterns in crop land near Garden City, Kansas, September 2, 2000. The patterns were created by 

 center pivot irrigation systems.

Drought in western Wyoming, spring 2012. Photograph by Jerrod Wheeler, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). 

Crop irrigation, South Dakota, 2008. Photograph by Kathleen Neitzert, USGS. 

A fierce bolt of lightning from an early morning thunderstorm on June 6, 2010, over Gainesville, Florida. Photograph by 

 Dr. Howard L. Cohen, Emeritus Associate Professor of Astronomy, University of Florida–Gainesville.

Oahe Dam, South Dakota, 2008. Photograph courtesy of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. 

The Blue Marble. Image by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Background. Storms in the eastern Pacific Ocean, September 2012. Photograph courtesy of NASA Visible Earth 

(http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/).
U.S. Geological Survey Climate and 

Land Use Change Science Strategy—

A Framework for Understanding and 

Responding to Global Change

By Virginia R. Burkett, David A. Kirtland, Ione L. Taylor, Jayne Belnap, Thomas 

M. Cronin, Michael D. Dettinger, Eldrich L. Frazier, John W. Haines, Thomas R. 

Loveland, Paul C.D. Milly, Robin O’Malley, Robert S. Thompson, Alec G. Maule, 

Gerard McMahon, and Robert G. Striegl

Circular 1383–A

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior

KEN SALAZAR, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Marcia K. McNutt, Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2013

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Suggested citation:

Burkett, V.R., Kirtland, D.A., Taylor, I.L., Belnap, Jayne, Cronin, T.M., Dettinger, M.D., Frazier, E.L., Haines, J.W., 

Loveland, T.R., Milly, P.C.D., O’Malley, Robin, Thompson, R.S., Maule, A.G., McMahon, Gerard, and Striegl, R.G., 

2013, U.S. Geological Survey climate and land use change science strategy—A framework for understanding and 

responding to global change: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1383–A, 43 p.

ISBN 978-1-4113-3550-9
iii

Foreword

In 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published a Bureau Science Strategy Facing Tomorrow’s 

Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017. It provided a view of the future, 

establishing science goals that reflected the USGS’s fundamental mission in areas of societal impact such 

as energy and minerals, climate and land use change, ecosystems, natural hazards, environmental health, 

and water. Intended to inform long-term program planning, the strategy emphasizes how USGS science 

can make substantial contributions to the well-being of the Nation and the world. 

In 2010, I realigned the USGS management and budget structure, changing it from a structure associated 

with scientific disciplines—Geography, Geology, Biology and Hydrology—to an issue-based organization 

along the lines of the Science Strategy. My aim was to align our management structure with our mission, our science priorities, our metrics for success, and our budget. An added benefit was that the USGS 

immediately appeared relevant to more Americans, and it became easier for those outside the agency to 

navigate our organizational structure to find where within the USGS they would find the solution to their 

problem. External partners rarely approached us with a problem in “geology,” but they might need help 

with an issue in climate change or energy research. 

The new organization is focused on seven science mission areas:

• Climate and Land Use Change

• Core Science Systems

• Ecosystems

• Energy and Minerals

• Environmental Health

• Natural Hazards

• Water

The scope of each of these new mission areas is broader than the science directions outlined in the USGS 

Science Strategy and together cover the scope of USGS science activities. 

In 2010, I also commissioned seven Science Strategy Planning Teams (SSPTs) to draft science strategies 

for each USGS mission area. Although the existing Bureau Science Strategy could be a starting point for 

this exercise, the SSPTs had to go well beyond the scope of the existing document. What is of value and 

enduring from the work of the programs that existed under the former science disciplines needed to be 

reframed and reinterpreted under the new organization of the science mission areas. In addition, new 

opportunities for research directions have emerged in the five years since the Bureau Science Strategy 

was drafted, and exciting possibilities for cooperating and collaborating in new ways are enabled by the 

new mission focus of the organization.

Scientists from across the Bureau were selected for these SSPTs for their experience in strategic planning, broad range of experience and expertise, and knowledge of stakeholder needs and relationships. 

Each SSPT was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) science strategy that encompasses the 

portfolio of USGS science in the respective mission area. Each science strategy will reinforce others 

because scientific knowledge inherently has significance to multiple issues. Leadership of the USGS and 

the Department of the Interior will use the science vision and priorities developed in these strategies 

for program guidance, implementation planning, accountability reporting, and resource allocation. These 

strategies will guide science and technology investment and workforce and human capital strategies. 

They will inform our partners regarding opportunities for communication, collaboration, and coordination.

The USGS has taken a significant step toward demonstrating that we are ready to collaborate on the most 

pressing natural science issues of our day and the future. I believe a leadership aligned to support these 

issue-based science directions and equipped with the guidance provided in these new science strategies 

in the capable hands of our scientists will create a new era for USGS of which we can all be proud.

Marcia McNutt 

Director
iv

Contents

Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................iii

Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................................1

Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................3

Science for a Changing World............................................................................................................3

A Scientific Basis for Resource Management and Decisionmaking...........................................4

Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration .........................................................................5

Science Goals and Objectives............................................................................................................8

Overview........................................................................................................................................8

Goal 1: Improve Understanding of Past Global Changes in Support of Policy and 

Management Decisions ................................................................................................8

Vision Statement.................................................................................................................9

Major Questions................................................................................................................10

Strategic Actions and Products .....................................................................................10

Short Term (1–5 Years)............................................................................................10

Longer Term (5–10 Years) .......................................................................................10

Goal 2: Improve Understanding and Prediction of the Global Carbon Cycle...................12

Vision Statement...............................................................................................................12

Major Questions................................................................................................................12

Strategic Actions and Products .....................................................................................13

Short Term (1–5 Years)............................................................................................13

Longer Term (5–10 Years) .......................................................................................13

Goal 3: Improve Understanding of Biogeochemical Cycles and Their Coupled 

Interactions ...................................................................................................................15

Vision Statement...............................................................................................................15

Major Questions................................................................................................................15

Strategic Actions and Products .....................................................................................16

Short Term (1–5 Years)............................................................................................16

Longer Term (5–10 Years) .......................................................................................16

Goal 4: Improve Understanding of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Rates, 

Causes, and Consequences .......................................................................................18

Vision Statement...............................................................................................................18

Major Questions................................................................................................................18

Strategic Actions and Products .....................................................................................19

Short Term (1–5 Years)............................................................................................19

Longer Term (5–10 Years) .......................................................................................19
v

Goal 5: Improve Understanding and Predictions of Changes in Hydrologic 

Processes, Droughts, Floods, and Water Availability Under Changing 

Land Use and Climate..................................................................................................21

Vision Statement...............................................................................................................21

Major Questions................................................................................................................21

Strategic Actions and Products .....................................................................................21

Short Term (1–5 Years) ...........................................................................................21

Longer Term (5–10 Years) ......................................................................................23

Goal 6: Improve Understanding and Prediction of Coastal Response to 

Sea-Level Rise, Climatic Change, and Human Development................................24

Vision Statement ..............................................................................................................24

Major Questions................................................................................................................24

Strategic Actions and Products ....................................................................................24

Short Term (1–5 Years)............................................................................................24

Longer Term (5–10 Years) .......................................................................................25

Goal 7: Improve Understanding and Prediction of Biological Responses to 

Global Change...............................................................................................................26

Vision Statement...............................................................................................................27

Major Questions................................................................................................................27

Strategic Actions and Products .....................................................................................27

Short Term (1–5 Years)............................................................................................27

Longer Term (5–10 Years) ......................................................................................27

Monitoring: A Critical Component of Global Change Science and Adaptive Resource 

Management...................................................................................................................................29

Interrelations of Climate and Land Use Change and Other Mission Areas .......................................33

Communicating Science to Society—Services, Products, and Delivery...........................................35

Services and Products.......................................................................................................................35

Research Results—From Fundamental to Applied..............................................................35

Modeling and Projection ..........................................................................................................35

Technical Support......................................................................................................................35

Enabling Efficient Transformation of Data to Knowledge ..................................................36

Delivering Science—USGS Framework for Collaboration and Communication .....................36

Collaboration...............................................................................................................................36

Communication ..........................................................................................................................38

Summary—Understanding and Responding to Climate and Land-Use Change...............................39

References Cited..........................................................................................................................................40

Glossary of Terms ........................................................................................................................................43
Humans

Land

and

water

Atmosphere

Oceans

Sun

Human

activity

Hazards

Climate

Sea level

Goods and

services

vi

Figures

1. Diagram showing a simplified, land- and human-centered view of the complex 

Earth system..................................................................................................................................3

2. Integrated science for global change.......................................................................................6

3. Diagram showing connectivity among the seven fundamental science goals 

for the U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Mission Area....................9

4. Diagram showing Climate and Land Use Change interaction with the other 

mission areas to understand global change..........................................................................33
vii

Abbreviations

C carbon

CH4 methane 

CLU Climate and Land Use Change

CO2 carbon dioxide

CSC Climate Science Center

CSS Core Science Systems

DOI Department of the Interior

ECV essential climate variable

ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation

EPA Environmental Protection Agency

FY fiscal year

IAG interagency working group

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LCC Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

LULC land use/land cover

LULCC land-use/land-cover change

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NAWQA National Water Quality Assessment

NCA National Climate Assessments 

NCCWSC National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center 

NGO nongovernmental organization

NO3 nitrate

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NRC National Research Council

NSF National Science Foundation

SSPT Science Strategy Planning Team

USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture

USGCRP U.S. Global Change Research Program

USGS U.S. Geological Survey
The Chesapeake Bay Watershed outlined here on a Landsat-based image of the mid-Atlantic 

United States is a research focus area for the U.S. Geological Survey and multiple Federal, State, 

nongovernmental organizations, and other partners. Source: National Aeronautics and Space 

Administration, John C. Stennis Space Center, Landsat Imagery, 2000, Albers Equal-Area Conic 

projection, North American Datum, 1983, Available online at http://www.nasa.gov and at 

http://zulu.ssc.nasa.gov/mrsid.
U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change 

Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding 

and Responding to Global Change

By Virginia R. Burkett, David A. Kirtland, Ione L. Taylor, Jayne Belnap, Thomas M. Cronin,Michael D. Dettinger, 

Eldrich L. Frazier, John W. Haines, Thomas R. Loveland, Paul C.D. Milly, Robin O’Malley, Robert S. Thompson, 

Alec G. Maule, Gerard McMahon, and Robert G. Streigl

Executive Summary

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a nonregulatory 

Federal science agency with national scope and responsibilities, is uniquely positioned to serve the Nation’s needs in 

understanding and responding to global change, including 

changes in climate, water availability, sea level, land use and 

land cover, ecosystems, and global biogeochemical cycles. 

Global change is among the most challenging and formidable 

issues confronting our Nation and society. Scientists agree 

that global environmental changes during this century will 

have far-reaching societal implications (Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change, 2007; U.S. Global Change Research 

Program, 2009). In the face of these challenges, the Nation 

can benefit greatly by using natural science information in 

decisionmaking.

Since the passage of the U.S. Global Change Research 

Act of 1990, the USGS has made substantial scientific contributions to understanding the interactive living and nonliving components of the Earth system. USGS natural science 

activities have led to fundamental advances in observing and 

understanding climate and land-cover change and the effects 

these changes have on ecosystems, natural-resource availability, and societal sustainability. Most of these major advances 

were pursued in partnership with other organizations within 

and outside the Department of the Interior. The inherent value 

of partnerships with other U.S. Global Change Research Program agencies and natural-resource managers is emphasized in 

all aspects of the planning and implementation of this Science 

Strategy for the coming decade.

Over the next 10 years, the USGS will make substantial 

contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, 

respond to, and cause global change. The USGS will work 

with science partners, decisionmakers, and resource managers 

at local to international levels (including Native American 

tribes) to improve understanding of past and present change; 

develop relevant forecasts; and identify those lands, resources, 

and communities most vulnerable to global change processes. 

Science will play an essential role in helping communities and 

land and resource managers understand local to global implications, anticipate effects, prepare for changes, and reduce the 

risks associated with decisionmaking in a changing environment. USGS partners and stakeholders will benefit from the 

data, predictive models, and decision-support products and 

services resulting from the implementation of this strategy.

This Science Strategy recognizes core USGS strengths 

that are applied to key societal problems. It establishes seven 

goals for USGS global change science and strategic actions 

that may be implemented in the short term (1–5 years) and the 

longer term (5–10 years) to improve our understanding of the 

following areas of inquiry:

1. Rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes;

2. The global carbon cycle;

3. Biogeochemical cycles and their coupled interactions;

4. Land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences;

5. Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing 

land-use and climatic conditions;

6. Coastal response to sea-level rise, climatic change, and 

human development; and 

7. Biological responses to global change.
Late afternoon thunderstorms building up over the land mass 

to the north of Everglades National Park, Florida, August 2012. 

Photograph by G. Lynn Wingard, USGS.

2 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

In addition to the seven thematic goals, we address 

the central role of monitoring in accordance with the 

USGS Science Strategy recommendation that global 

change research should rely on existing “...decades of 

observational data and long-term records to interpret 

consequences of climate variability and change to the 

Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land 

and water resources” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007, 

p. 19). We also briefly describe specific needs and 

opportunities for coordinating USGS global change 

science among USGS Mission Areas and address the 

need for a comprehensive and sustained communications strategy.
Introduction 3

Introduction

Science for a Changing World

Since the USGS was created by Congress with the 

Organic Act of March 3, 1879 (43 U.S.C. 31), it has evolved 

from an organization charged with inventorying the Nation’s 

public lands and natural resources to an accomplished research 

institution with broad scientific objectives. Its central mission in the 21st Century is “Science for a Changing World” 

in recognition of the role that science and scientists can play 

in monitoring, understanding, and forecasting global environmental change and in informing mitigation and adaptation 

strategies. This document presents a focused vision and strategy to guide global change science within the USGS in the 

short (1–5 years) and the longer (5–10 years) terms. The vision 

and strategy consider anticipated national and Department of 

the Interior needs and the capabilities and core strengths of the 

USGS.

Global change refers to large-scale changes in the environment that may alter the Earth’s capacity to sustain life and 

human endeavor (U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990). 

This includes alterations in climate, atmospheric chemistry, 

oceans and other water resources, the land surface and its 

biological productivity, and ecological systems, including 

the goods and services they provide. Key physical drivers of 

global change and their interaction with human populations 

and ecosystems are depicted in figure 1. Collectively, global 

change and its effects are among the most challenging and 

formidable issues confronting our Nation and society, and 

solutions call for a deep appreciation of the complex relations 

among Earth systems and human activities.

The USGS has the multidisciplinary scientific expertise needed to investigate the Earth as a system in which the 

biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and atmosphere are 

interrelated. While the USGS does not have regulatory or 

land-management responsibility, it does have a worldwide 

reputation for objective, unbiased science. Its 133-year history of producing scientific knowledge and tools that support 

natural-resource decisionmaking is unique among Federal 

agencies. This science strategy draws on this unique expertise, 

and its specific goals and objectives are unified under the following vision statement for USGS global change science:

USGS scientists will collect, analyze, disseminate, and 

interpret observational records and perform process-oriented 

research to determine causes and consequences of global 

change; USGS science will help society anticipate and adapt 

to global change.

Humans

Land

and

water

Atmosphere

Oceans

Sun

Human

activity

Hazards

Climate

Sea level

Goods and

services

Figure 1. A simplified, 

land- and human-centered 

view of the complex Earth 

system. People affect the 

Earth system largely through 

activities on the land surface. 

In turn, through natural 

processes, people are 

affected by Earth-system 

changes through the impacts 

of those changes on land and 

water resources.
Highlight

4 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

From left to right, Suzette Kimball, USGS Acting 

Director; Clarence Alexander, Alaska Board Chairman (Yukon Flats); and Carl Sidney, Yukon Board 

Chairman, Dahka Tlingit Nation; signing a Memorandum of Understanding between the USGS and the 

Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC) 

during closing ceremonies of the 7th Biennial Summit, Whitehorse, Yukon Territories, August 2009.

The Department of the Interior (DOI) is the primary Federal custodian of America’s natural resources and America’s heritage. DOI’s 

Strategic Plan for Fiscal Years 2011–2016 establishes goals, strategies, and measures that will guide the Department’s activities for 

the next 5 years. One of the five broad mission statements contained within DOI’s Strategic Plan is to provide a scientific foundation for decisionmaking (U.S. Department of the Interior, 2011). The 

USGS is responsible for achieving the priority goals associated 

with the science mission of the plan:

1. Ensure the quality and relevance of science products to partners and customers

2. Provide science for sustainable resource use, protection, and 

adaptive management

3. Assess and forecast climate change and its effects

4. Develop a comprehensive science framework for understanding the Earth

Most of the specific actions recommended under these four DOI 

goals relate directly to global change. In addition, the reforms set 

forth in the strategic plan by the Secretary of Interior place particular emphasis on achieving results in the near-term, including 

renewable energy, sustainable water management and conservation, and climate-change adaptation.

A Scientific Basis for Resource Management 

and Decisionmaking

The Department of the Interior (DOI) manages approximately 20 percent of the land in the United States and adjacent 

coastal waters. DOI management and stewardship responsibilities include migratory, threatened, and endangered species; 

national parks, wildlife refuges, monuments, and other public 

lands; water resources; Native American trust resources; and 

the U.S. freely associated States and insular territories. Consequently, many sections of this document refer to the needs of 

decisionmakers in agencies and bureaus under the stewardship 

authority of DOI.

In addition to responding to science needs of the DOI 

bureaus, this science strategy addresses needs of naturalresource managers at local, regional, State, and Federal levels. 

The USGS also contributes to national and international scientific activities that inform societies about the nature and effects 

of global change, including participation in climate-change 

assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program 

(USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 

Change (IPCC). This science strategy report presents science 

goals, monitoring objectives, and communication strategies 

the USGS can implement to achieve the vision as stated on the 

previous page. The goals are integrative and crosscutting, and 

their success depends on the ability of the USGS to recruit, 

retain, and nurture a workforce with the appropriate mix of 

skills and expertise.

Ice breakup on the Yukon River at Pilot Station, Alaska. 

Photograph by Mark Dornblaser, USGS.
Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 5

Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration

The USGS occupies a unique position in the global 

change science community with its long-term, process-based 

research; observational networks; and extensive databases 

encompassing the fields of geology, hydrology, climate history, land-use and land-cover change, ecosystem science, and 

carbon and nutrient cycles. Documenting, understanding, and 

predicting environmental and natural-resource change at a 

national scale have formed the core of USGS research since it 

was first established. 

In recent years, USGS scientists have addressed questions about the causes and effects of these changes from local 

to global scales. With long-term observational networks and 

extensive databases, analysis and modeling capabilities, and 

diverse scientific expertise, the USGS provides broad perspectives needed to expand understanding of past, current, 

and future global changes and their effects on the Nation’s 

resources and economy. The USGS works with local, State, 

Federal, nongovernmental, private, and tribal partners to 

understand past climate variability and deliver credible future 

scenarios of global-change effects on land, water, and ecological and biological resources. Integrative systems modeling 

enables USGS scientists to examine how systems respond to 

global changes. Examples of core USGS strengths that are 

central to the way the USGS conducts global change science 

are highlighted in figure 2.

USGS contributions to understanding global change 

include the following specific examples:

• Landsat satellite imagery 

◦ Management and delivery of the world’s longest 

continuously acquired collection of space-based land 

remote sensing data

◦ National assessment of 30 years of trends in U.S. 

land-use and land-cover change

• Authorship on reports critical to informing public 

policy

◦ The U.S. National Climate Assessments (NCA)

◦ IPCC Assessment Reports and Technical Papers 

◦ USGCRP Synthesis and Assessment Products on the 

following topics:

- Abrupt climate change 

- Past climate variability and change in the Arctic 

and at high latitudes

- Thresholds of change in ecosystems

- State of the carbon cycle

- Coastal sensitivity to sea-level rise: focus on midAtlantic region

- Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and integrated scenario development

- Carbon budget for North America

- Adaptation for ecosystems/resources

- Impacts of climate variability and change on 

transportation systems and infrastructure in the 

central Gulf Coast region

- Decision-support experiments and evaluations 

using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data

• Global and regional future projections of river runoff

• National land-cover databases

• Methodologies for assessing carbon sequestration and 

storage in geologic formations and terrestrial ecosystems

• Detection of ongoing climatic trends and impacts, such 

as

◦ Seasonally earlier peak streamflow in the U.S. northeast and west 

◦ Seasonally earlier arrival of spring migratory birds

◦ Retreating glaciers in Alaska and the Cascade and 

Rocky Mountains

◦ Declining permafrost in Alaska

• Global reconstruction and model simulations of past 

global warmth and impacts 

• Effects of warming on plant and animal species, such 

as Arctic-wide assessment of polar bear and sea-ice 

habitat, and shifts in migratory bird range 

• Sea-level rise vulnerability maps for U.S. coastal 

regions and coastal national parks

• Regional assessment of the effects of climate and landuse change on terrestrial habitat connectivity for faunal 

species with different dispersal patterns, home range 

size, and habitat usage.

The Climate and Land Use Change Mission Area through 

its Land Remote Sensing Program operates the Landsat satellites and provides the Nation’s portal to the largest archive 

of remotely sensed land data in the world, supplying access 

to current and historical images. These images serve many 

purposes from assessing the impact of natural disasters to 

monitoring global agricultural production.
Figure 2. Integrated science for global change. 

Image from Esri Shaded Landsat Map (circa 2000–

2005) developed from publicly available U.S. Geological 

Survey (USGS) data.

6 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Focused science capacity in 

fundamental and applied aspects of geology, geography, 

hydrology, and biology.

Long-term research and monitoring to describe trends in land 

use, water, energy, minerals, 

species and ecosystems, and 

the consequences of global 

change.

Application and translation that 

integrates environmental and 

climate-change data to predict 

impacts on natural resources 

and human populations.

Consistent data collection 

and continuous synthesis for 

vulnerability and impact assessments to meet the needs of 

decisionmakers.
Introduction 7

Multiscale studies as a basis for 

integrated, international, national, 

and regional assessments of 

global change impacts on water 

resources and terrestrial, aquatic, and coastal environments.

Synthesis, assessment, and 

modeling draw on USGS capacity to identify trends and predict 

effects of global change on 

natural resources and provide 

a scientific basis for evaluating 

resource management options.

Comprehensive characterizations based on integrated 

data collection, mapping, and 

research, describing the Earth 

through time, from paleo- to 

present.

Widely distributed presence 

with science centers and 

data-collection operations 

in every State, offering a 

unique coverage across the 

national landscape.

Fundamental process 

studies to interpret and 

understand how coupled 

natural and human-modified environments affect 

past, present, and future 

environments.

Collaborating with State 

and Federal land-management agencies to assess 

how changes in surface 

water flows affect wildlife 

carrying capacity of 

ecosystems in the Lower 

Mississippi Valley.

Collecting and analyzing 

satellite imagery and 

weather data for the 

Shenandoah National Park 

to uncover and understand potential impacts of 

climate change on eastern 

forest vegetation, hydrology, and habitats.

Working with Yakama 

Nation tribal member to 

return tagged salmon to a 

stream. 
8 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Science Goals and Objectives

Overview

This global change science strategy recognizes core 

USGS strengths and applies them to key problems in the 

context of seven programmatic goals focused on past global 

change, carbon, biogeochemical cycles, land use/land cover, 

droughts and floods, sea level, and biological changes. Each 

goal was selected based on the following criteria:

• Employs integrated scientific research and assessment 

to fill knowledge gaps about national climate, land use, 

ecosystem, and energy priorities.

• Addresses topics critical for managing natural 

resources and the environment, with tangible effects on 

environmental goods, services, and risks.

• Uses USGS core capacity, disciplinary strengths, integrative capacities, and long-term databases.

• Invests in comprehensive, integrated observation and 

monitoring to understand local to global change processes and conditions. 

• Leverages or expands partnerships that advance the 

science goal.

• Builds on the leadership role of the USGS in the 

USGCRP. 

• Addresses topics critical to DOI for managing natural 

resources, wildlife habitat, and the environment with 

special concern or attention to those resources critical 

to Native American subsistence tribal cultures.

The seven goals are interconnected programmatically 

and scientifically. The carbon cycle, for example, interacts 

directly with changes in climate and land use, which in turn 

affect and are affected by species response and hydrology. 

Monitoring, modeling, research, and decisionmaking relating 

to any of these goals will need to be coordinated with all the 

others; therefore, the science goals are scientific concentrations in a broader continuum of efforts rather than strictly 

separate activities. Similarly, the global change theme cannot 

be fully separated from the other science Mission Areas within 

the USGS. Global change is expected to alter the conditions 

associated with natural hazards, stress ecosystems and natural 

resources, such as water resources, and influence carbon 

sequestration and energy strategies. Consequently, this science 

strategy and the seven goals described in this section, will be 

coordinated with other USGS Mission Areas. 

These seven goals are not intended to be distinct, nonoverlapping categories for USGS global change projects, nor 

do they include all areas of USGS global change science. 

Rather, they highlight priority areas where resources should 

be directed over the next 5 to 10 years. The science activities 

described in this document are not intended to be policy 

prescriptive, but all seven science goals contain elements that 

will help inform societal responses to global change. Many 

topical research needs, which may not be explicitly stated as 

strategic actions, are nonetheless essential for the successful 

achievement of the seven goals for USGS global change science. Actions recommended to achieve an individual goal may 

either depend on or influence products and outcomes from 

the other goals—a process consistent with interactions and 

feedbacks among global change drivers and impacts shown in 

figure 3.

The seven high-priority goals for USGS global change 

science are developed in more detail in this section, starting 

with a statement summarizing the specific societal issues and 

challenges faced or anticipated. A vision statement and a series 

of the key scientific research questions pertinent to the goal 

follow. Finally, a set of short-term and longer-term strategic 

actions are described that, if implemented, will advance USGS 

science from its current state toward the desired future state 

articulated in the vision statement.

Goal 1: Improve Understanding of Past Global 

Changes in Support of Policy and Management 

Decisions

USGS conducts research on past global changes through 

investigations of changes in Earth’s climate, surface, hydrologic and geologic processes, and other aspects of the Earth 

system. USGS scientists study past changes in diverse environments throughout the United States and across the globe 

that provide a baseline against which ongoing changes can be 

assessed. Paleoclimate investigations began long before the 

current focus on greenhouse effects because climatic change is 

a natural, inherent, and critical component of Earth’s environmental history. Changes in Earth’s climate occur over all 

timescales due to external causes, such as cycles of Earth’s 

orbit and solar output, and internal processes like sea-floor 

spreading, ocean-atmosphere interactions, glacier and icesheet growth and decay, and carbon cycling, among others.

Past climate changes have been both gradual and abrupt; 

some climate changes were periodic. Often, climate changes 

had large amplitudes or rates of change reflecting climatic 

thresholds, nonlinear climate behavior and partially understood feedbacks involving biogeochemical cycles, changes 

in Earth’s albedo, and others. Nonlinear responses and abrupt 

changes are particularly important phenomena for understanding future climate changes. Because instrumental records of 

temperature, rainfall, sea level, and other climate parameters 

are too short to reveal the full range of climatic variability or 

to identify dangerous thresholds, it is of vital importance that 

we understand better how the Earth system functions and how 

it responds to forcings and perturbations beyond those of the 

past few decades. Because Earth’s climate has fluctuated in 

the past partly due to changing atmospheric carbon dioxide 
Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 9

concentrations, studies of past conditions and changes provide 

a basis for properly assessing potential ranges and uncertainties of impacts from various levels of human-induced climate 

change. Reconstructing past climates also provides the basis 

for developing and validating conceptual and computer models designed to simulate interactions among key components 

of the Earth system, thereby allowing us to assess and predict 

vulnerabilities of specific landscapes, ecosystems, and natural 

resources to global changes.

Today the USGS has strong capabilities in many fields 

required to document and understand past global changes, 

including geology, paleontology, paleohydrology, geochemistry, numerical analysis, and modeling. The Bureau’s breadth of 

scientific expertise will be applied to characterize and understand past global changes from the last century back through 

millions of years of Earth history. Insights from historical, 

paleoenvironmental, and paleoclimatic studies increasingly 

will be used to support decisions in the management of water 

and other natural resources and in national and international 

planning for the potential consequences of future global 

changes. USGS research on past global change also involves 

meaningful linkages with other USGS Mission Areas and 

outside collaborators, including the National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), DOI bureaus and other Federal 

agencies, academic researchers, and international scientific 

organizations.

Vision Statement

The USGS will investigate past global changes, including 

past climate states and variability; rates of climate change; and 

interactions among climatic, hydrologic, biologic, geologic, 

and human-induced processes. This information provides a 

framework for understanding ongoing and projected climatic 

and environmental changes and contributes to the scientific 

basis for societal decisions.

Figure 3. Connectivity among the seven fundamental science goals for the U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change 

Mission Area.
A polar bear walks on Arctic Ocean ice, August 23, 2009. 

Photograph by Patrick Kelley, U.S. Coast Guard.

10 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Major Questions

• What were the patterns of change and variability in 

climate, greenhouse gases, and Earth-surface environments over timescales ranging from the past few 

decades to millions of years?

• What were the causes, durations, levels of greenhouse 

gases and ocean acidification, and environmental characteristics of past warm climate episodes?

• How do ongoing and projected changes in climate, 

water resources, ecosystems, and the surficial environment compare with past climatic shifts and degrees 

of variability reconstructed for the past hundreds to 

thousands of years?

• How rapid and widespread have past global changes 

been, and were there thresholds that, when crossed, 

led to unexpected or nonlinear responses in climate, 

hydrology, ecosystems, or other aspects of the Earth 

system?

• What can global changes of the past reveal about 

the vulnerabilities of specific ecosystems, natural 

resources, or landscapes to particular changes in climate, atmospheric chemistry, or other components of 

the Earth system? How can this information be used in 

support of management?

• How did humans influence the environment and climate before and since the industrial revolution? How 

have forest clearances, water storage and irrigation 

systems, and other economic activities affected ecosystems, landscapes, and natural resources? 

• How can the acquisition, synthesis, and analysis of historical records and paleodata contribute to the scientific 

basis of management and policy decisions? How can 

communication with users be improved?

Strategic Actions and Products

Short Term (1–5 Years)

• Establish or improve methods for reconstructing and 

dating changes in mean conditions (and variability 

around these means) of climatic parameters, landsurface conditions, hydrology, marine environments, 

and other important facets of past global change.

• Create a national synthesis of currently available data 

on past climatic and environmental changes and variability, particularly for vulnerable natural resources, 

lands, and marine environments managed by the Federal Government.

• Improve understanding of past interactions among 

key components of the Earth system, such as climate, 

hydrology, and Earth-surface processes.

• Investigate the amplitudes, spatial extents, and causes 

of past abrupt global changes and nonlinear responses 

to external forcing in climate, land surface, hydrology, 

and ecosystems.

• Expand participation of USGS in national efforts, such 

as NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center, and 

international activities, such as IPCC assessments, to 

use paleodata and modern Earth-surface records to 

evaluate the potential consequences of future global 

change and to assess the abilities of models to simulate 

past changes and their effects.

Longer Term (5–10 Years)

• Conduct focused studies on the climatic and environmental characteristics of past periods of warmer global 

climates and of higher-than-present levels of greenhouse gases and identify the causes of these episodes 

and their terminations. 

• Contribute insights from the past in the construction 

and validation of Earth system models in collaboration 

with other research groups. 

• Assess patterns of climatic and environmental variability from the recent past to the past few millions 

of years to provide a framework for understanding 

potential future global change.

• With natural resource managers and other decisionmakers, determine information needs and enhance 

communication of paleo perspectives of ongoing and 

potential future global change.

• Document how species and ecosystems have adapted 

to past global change, and use this information to 

evaluate the vulnerability of these natural resources to 

potential future changes.
Highlight

Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 11

Abrupt changes in global and regional climate have been frequent and well documented. Although the exact causes of 

such abrupt changes are not yet well understood, geologic evidence and climate modeling strongly suggest that they 

are triggered by crossing thresholds that are internal to the climate system. During the last deglaciation, several abrupt 

temperature shifts occurred over about a century, resulting in hemispheric-scale climate changes. Abrupt cooling episodes also occurred, reflecting the impacts of abrupt drainage of vast ice-dammed glacial lakes that developed along the 

Laurentide Ice Sheet margin. The release of freshwater from glacial lakes may have suppressed ocean circulation in the 

North Atlantic, thereby interrupting global heat transport that moves excess heat from the equator toward the poles. Other 

abrupt changes involved rapid disintegration of ice sheets, which raised global sea level at rates as much as 5 meters in a 

century. On shorter timescales, large regional droughts can begin and end abruptly due to changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns that are linked to changes in oceanic circulation and temperature distributions such as 

those that accompany the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. 

Top: Glaciers like this outlet glacier from Iceland’s Vatnajökull Ice Cap can 

melt rapidly and contribute to global sea-level rise by adding more water to 

the world’s ocean basins. Glaciers and parts of the Greenland and Antarctic 

Ice Sheets are expected to melt at faster rates over the coming decades. 

Photograph by Thomas Cronin, USGS.

Left: Air bubbles (left) and ice crystals (right) in an ice core sample contain 

a comprehensive history of the Earth. Ice cores from Antarctica, Greenland, 

and smaller glaciers and ice caps provide paleoclimate records of atmospheric temperature, greenhouse concentrations, atmospheric dust, and 

many other climate parameters.
12 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Goal 2: Improve Understanding and Prediction of 

the Global Carbon Cycle

Natural biogeochemical processes, including biological organic matter production and decomposition, ecosystem 

respiration, inorganic and organic carbon sequestration, and 

mineral weathering are inextricably linked to the global 

carbon cycle and to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (CO2

). 

Changes in the transfer of inorganic and organic carbon into 

and out of the Earth’s carbon stores by burning of fossil fuels, 

change in land use/land cover (LULC), warming or cooling, 

and alteration of the hydrologic cycle consequently affect 

CO2

 in the atmosphere. Studies of the global carbon cycle 

are, therefore, critical to understanding the potential effects 

of these changes on climate. These studies also will inform 

potential mitigation options for carbon sequestration and 

storage in Earth systems. The future course of atmospheric 

CO2

 and global climate change will be determined by complex interactions among human activities and carbon-cycle 

processes that exchange CO2

 with the oceans and terrestrial 

systems. Policy decisions require information about potential 

effectiveness of emission reductions and other mitigation 

activities, as well as the extent to which these measures might 

be offset by response of the global carbon cycle to climate and 

land-use change. The USGS will provide scientific information essential for these decisions in support of sound national 

policies. Today’s atmospheric CO2

 concentrations are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years and probably the 

last approximately 3 million years (Luthi and others, 2008; 

Hoenisch and others, 2009; and Pagani and others, 2009). 

Policy and legislative decisions about energy policy, 

resource management, and carbon accounting must be based 

on many factors, including scientific and nonscientific considerations. Scientific information about the global carbon 

cycle is essential to anticipate potential impacts of changes in 

atmospheric CO2

 on society, species, and ecosystems. USGS 

research on the carbon cycle will focus on the interactions 

among climate, land use, biogeochemical cycling of carbon 

at plot to global scales, and atmospheric CO2

 and methane 

(CH4

). The most important topics will include improved process understanding of carbon cycling and fluxes at all scales, 

including the effects of changes in LULC and water, permafrost, and methane hydrate distributions on CO2

 and CH4

production, consumption and exchange with the atmosphere; 

the transfer of particulate and dissolved carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to freshwater and marine environments; and 

ocean acidification/carbonation impacts on marine ecosystems. Coupling these studies with the continued development 

of ecosystem carbon cycle models will result in improved 

understanding of carbon exchange between land and water 

surfaces and the atmosphere; carbon transfer from terrestrial 

to freshwater and marine ecosystems; methane emissions 

from permafrost, wetlands, freshwater bodies and marine gas 

hydrates; and relations between LULC and carbon cycling.

In addition to these key research activities, USGS carbon cycle experts are conducting a national comprehensive 

assessment of carbon sequestration resources as mandated by 

the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (Zhu and 

others, 2010). The USGS assessment will quantify ecological 

carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse gas fluxes 

across the land and water surface and the export of carbon by 

rivers to coastal areas of the United States. This methodology 

includes mapping and modeling of LULC changes, ecosystem 

disturbances, carbon stocks and potential sequestration, CO2

and CH4

 fluxes, cost benefit analyses, and improved statistical 

verification methods. The USGS also developed a probabilistic 

methodology for evaluating geologic carbon dioxide storage (Brennan and others, 2010). This methodology estimates 

pore volume of potential storage formations across a range 

of uncertainty levels based on information about geologic, 

geochemical, and hydrologic processes. Following these nearterm, national-scale assessments of sequestration capacities, 

new observational capabilities and research efforts will be 

needed to more precisely characterize geochemical, hydrologic, and rock mechanical issues raised at specific sequestration sites. 

The National Research Council report, “Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade,” 

specifically emphasized the need for a comprehensive carbon 

cycle research strategy (National Research Council, 1999). In 

response, the Carbon and Climate Working Group of USGCRP 

wrote, “A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan” (Sarmiento and 

Wofsy, 1999) to establish the U.S. Carbon Cycle Science 

Program. The USGS collaborates with nine other agencies 

through this program to clarify the changes, magnitudes, and 

distributions of carbon sources and sinks; the fluxes between 

the major terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric carbon reservoirs; and the underlying mechanisms involved, including 

humans, fossil fuel emissions, land use, and climate. 

Vision Statement

The USGS will provide scientific information that may be 

used for national climate, energy, and land-management policy 

decisions affecting atmospheric CO2

 concentrations. 

Major Questions

• What are the rates, amounts, and chemical forms of 

carbon transferred among terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the atmosphere?

• What are the effects of past, present, and potential 

future human activities on carbon cycling and atmospheric concentrations of CO2

, methane, and other 

greenhouse gases?

• What is the potential for increasing and sustaining 

storage of carbon in U.S. geological and ecological 

systems?
Agricultural fields and an abandoned farmstead in eastern Montana in the Great Plains region. 

The Great Plains region of the United States has experienced significant land-use change since 

European settlement, with vast swaths of grasslands converted to agricultural lands. Access to 

water, technological changes, a growing biofuels industry, fluctuating demands for agricultural 

products, and government policies have resulted in periodic historical shifts in land use in the 

region and may drive major land-use changes in the next several decades. Land use 

and land management in the region have significant implications for carbon 

storage and greenhouse-gas fluxes. Photograph by Terry Sohl, USGS.

Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 13

• What are the biological, hydrological, geophysical, 

and geochemical processes that determine impacts of 

climate and land-use change on the carbon cycle?

• What do past interactions among the global carbon 

cycle, atmospheric CO2, atmospheric methane, and 

climate tell us about potential future interactions?

• What are the most important amplifying and dampening carbon-cycle feedbacks that will result from rising 

greenhouse gas concentrations?

• How is the carbon cycle affected by changes in biogeochemical cycling of water, energy, sediments, and 

nutrients?

• What underlying geologic and hydrologic conditions 

most significantly impact the magnitude, capacity, and 

storage time of CO2 sequestration? 

Strategic Actions and Products

Short Term (1–5 Years)

• Improve quantitative understanding of the processes 

controlling the biogeochemical cycling of carbon, 

including carbon storage, flux, and biogeochemical 

transformation, in terrestrial (soil, sediment, vegetation, and agriculture), aquatic (lacustrine, fluvial, and 

wetland), and nearshore marine environments. 

• Develop methodologies for estimating potential carbon 

sequestration (volume capacity and distribution) and 

carbon storage vulnerability in geological and ecological systems.

• Improve existing and develop new and more accurate 

integrated ecosystem, hydrologic, and biogeochemical 

models of terrestrial and aquatic carbon cycling and 

exchange with the atmosphere.

• Conduct fundamental research that complements the 

work performed by the Department of Energy and 

others on the geologic, hydrologic, and geochemical 

processes in the subsurface that control and result from 

the injection of liquid carbon dioxide into oil and gas 

reservoirs and other permeable geologic units.

• Initiate periodic national comprehensive carbon 

resource assessments of potential carbon sequestration, 

carbon storage vulnerability, and carbon gas exchange 

by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and geologic 

formations.

• Integrate multidisciplinary methods and tools for carbon sequestration assessment and monitoring.

• Improve estimates of historical and present-day carbon 

fluxes associated with water and sediment transport.

• Improve understanding of effects of elevated CO2 concentrations on ocean acidification/carbonation. 

Longer Term (5–10 Years)

• Periodically update and refine assessments of carbon 

sequestration and loss from terrestrial and aquatic 

ecosystems and geologic formations.

• Publish national maps of carbon stocks and fluxes 

based on integrated, multidisciplinary, multiagency 

studies of carbon cycling and storage. 

• Contribute to international efforts to model future 

changes in the global carbon cycle and atmospheric 

CO2 concentrations.

• Synthesize studies of ocean acidification/carbonation 

and its impacts.
A section of the Upper Green River Valley in western 

Wyoming, just south of Yellowstone and Grand Teton 

National Parks, showing different ecosystems (such as 

forests, wetlands, and aquatic habitats) whose capacities for 

carbon storage and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions 

will be assessed by the USGS. Scientists with the USGS 

are assessing the potential to store carbon in vegetation, 

soils, and sediments, which is known as biological carbon 

sequestration. Photograph by Donald Ohlen, USGS.

Highlight

14 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

The Global Carbon Cycle incorporates the biogeochemical transformation, storage, and movement of inorganic and 

organic carbon among terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, oceans, and the atmosphere. This includes plant production by 

natural forests, grasslands and agriculture; mineralization and volatilization of living and dead biomass by fires, respiration 

and decomposition; delivery of dissolved and eroded carbon to oceans by rivers; sequestration of carbon by soils, inland 

waters and oceans; and the exchange of carbon dioxide, methane and hydrocarbons between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the atmosphere. USGS scientists study the carbon cycle in field, laboratory, and modeling investigations and 

seek solutions to abate global increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 15

Goal 3: Improve Understanding of Biogeochemical Cycles and Their Coupled Interactions

Human activities have become a major global geophysical force in the past century and the global impacts of our 

effects on biogeochemical cycling are very poorly understood. 

Six nutrient elements—carbon (addressed in Goal 2), oxygen, 

hydrogen, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur—make up 95 percent of the biospheric mass on Earth and constitute the major 

biogeochemical cycles of the Earth’s land-ocean-atmosphere 

system, establishing the biochemical foundations for life. 

Imbalances in the availability and use of these elements, as 

well as interactions with carbon, the major cations (potassium, 

calcium, sodium, and magnesium) and metals such as mercury, zinc, and iron, have both direct and indirect effects on 

the distribution and viability of organisms and on climate and 

landscapes globally. The full impacts of human alterations to 

these cycles and their coupled interactions are unknown; thus, 

this goal is an attempt to establish, rather than maintain and 

expand, the basis for early warnings of potential impacts. 

Anthropogenic effects on nitrogen and phosphorus cycles 

have greatly increased in the past 150 years, especially the last 

50 years (Vitousek and others, 2009). Fossil-fuel burning, an 

increase in leguminous crops, and the production of fertilizers 

have more than doubled the input of nitrogen into ecosystems 

relative to preindustrial times. This has negatively affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in many ways (Pardo and others, 2011; Baron and others, 2011; Baron and others, in press). 

For example, agricultural runoff and atmospheric nitrogen 

deposition have caused widespread hypoxia in most coastal 

areas worldwide, causing ecological and economic damage. 

Hypoxia increases ocean acidity such that nutrient runoff creates regions where global CO2

-induced ocean acidification is 

exacerbated. On land, the cover and extent of invasive annual 

grasses increase with increased nitrogen deposition, resulting 

in accelerated fire cycles and subsequent losses of habitat, forage, and soils. Increased nitrogen has been strongly linked to 

a decline in ecosystem biodiversity and to alterations in plant 

community composition. Many Americans drink water from 

wells with nitrate concentrations close to or exceeding the 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) safe drinking 

water standards, and new research links ingestion of nitrate to 

cancer and birth defects. 

The key nutrient element phosphorus is limiting to plant 

productivity and is often combined with nitrogen in fertilizers (Vitousek and others, 2009). As soil nutrients become 

exhausted and more marginal areas are brought into agricultural cultivation, increasing amounts of fertilizer are applied 

by farmers. Current human use of phosphorus is unsustainable, 

and unlike nitrogen, it cannot be synthetically produced. Thus, 

emerging scarcity may induce widespread crop failures, while 

overuse contaminates rivers, lakes and oceans.

Much less attention has been paid to the coupling among 

different major biogeochemical cycles and their interactions 

with the carbon cycle. In addition, little work has addressed 

how cation, anion, and mineral cycles interact with the major 

elements.

Modification of plant communities due to disturbance 

regimes also can affect biogeochemical cycles. For example, 

soil erosion can reduce nutrient availability to ecosystems 

over the long term. The biological, economic, and societal 

impacts of the changing biogeochemical cycles may, in turn, 

affect ecosystem services such as climate regulation, water 

availability, plant health, and agricultural productivity at local 

to global scales. A better basic understanding of how altered 

biogeochemical cycles function, how human activities change 

them, and what impacts these changes will have on biologic, 

climatic, hydrologic, and land conditions will allow us to 

better meet future challenges associated with such cycles. 

Without such understanding, our ability to manage and predict 

many global challenges society will face is limited, especially 

as even more alterations of these cycles can be expected in the 

future.

The interdisciplinary field of biogeochemistry requires 

the engagement of many scientific specialties to answer even 

simple questions. This goal builds on long-standing USGS 

work. Given its wide range of expertise in all the fields 

needed for the study of biogeochemical cycles, the USGS is 

uniquely poised to make significant contributions in collaboration with agriculturally and environmentally oriented partners 

like the USEPA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 

NOAA and other DOI bureaus. 

Vision Statement

The USGS will provide scientific knowledge and tools 

for tracking and understanding changes in the Earth’s major 

biogeochemical cycles; their internal interactions and their 

interactions with the cycles of carbon, major cations and 

micronutrients; perturbations to these cycles by human activities; the effects of these changes on ecosystems and global 

processes; and options for mitigating these effects. 

Major Questions

• What are the major sources and sinks for nitrogen and 

phosphorus through time and across different geographic scales? How are these cycles interacting with 

carbon, major cations, and other metals? How are they 

changing with global changes?

• What are the biological, chemical, and physical factors 

regulating transformations to, from, and within the 

global reservoirs of nitrogen and phosphorus? 

• How has increased nitrogen from anthropogenic 

sources affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and 

the services they deliver? 

• How do carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus interactions affect 

ecosystems, land conditions, and the positive or negative feedbacks to climate change? How might climate 
16 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

USGS scientists prepare to use an acoustic Doppler current 

profiler to measure streamflow on the Boise River in Boise, 

Idaho, as part of a study of phosphorus mass balance. 

Photograph by Tim Merrick, USGS.

and land-use change exacerbate or mollify future 

changes in these major biogeochemical cycles? 

• How can human alterations to biogeochemical cycles, 

through agriculture, energy provision, and other activities, be managed at large scales to control adverse 

impacts to the greater environment, especially highly 

vulnerable freshwater and marine resources? 

• What is the nature and what are the risks associated 

with human alterations to other biogeochemical cycles, 

such as sulfur, iron, and zinc?

Strategic Actions and Products

Short Term (1–5 Years)

• Publish an overview of the past variations and changes 

of major biogeochemical cycles and interactions with 

the carbon cycle.

• Develop a monitoring strategy for tracking and predicting major biogeochemical sources and sinks at local 

to global scales and collaborate with other national 

networks to implement this strategy.

• Augment USGS research and modeling to identify 

and track vulnerabilities of the global biogeochemical 

cycles to human-induced change, as well as key direct 

and indirect effects of changing cycles on ecosystems 

and other global processes.

• Conduct a detailed national assessment of nitrogen 

deposition patterns and impacts on ecosystem structure 

and function, including water quality.

• Document and model transfers of nitrogen and phosphorus between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in 

natural and agricultural settings at local and regional 

scales.

• Document and model how changes in climate and CO2

will affect biotic and abiotic transformations within the 

nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in different climatic 

regions.

• Characterize nitrogen and phosphorus cycles (and their 

interactions with each other and carbon) in ecosystems 

known to be sensitive to deposition of these elements 

and establish minimum loading levels possible before 

ecosystem structure and function are disrupted.

Longer Term (5–10 Years)

• Publish recurring national summaries of observed 

variations and changes in nitrogen and phosphorus 

sources, sinks, reservoirs, and fluxes with attribution 

of the role of human activities in these variations and 

changes.

• Develop local, regional, national, and global projections of nitrogen and phosphorus sources, sinks, and 

fluxes in response to projected economic and agricultural developments and to projections of climate, land-, 

and water-use change.

• Conduct field, laboratory and modeling research on the 

potential for large-scale mitigation of human impacts 

on global biogeochemical cycles.

• Conduct comparative analysis among the Nation’s ecosystems to determine the vulnerability and resilience of 

ecosystems to increased nutrient loading. 

• Incorporate biogeochemical cycling in scenario-based 

predictive modeling of global change impacts.

• Better understand oceanic nitrogen, phosphorus, and 

iron cycles in relation with ocean temperature, pH and 

biotic functioning.

• Investigate how the cycles of other elements interact 

with nitrogen and phosphorus cycles.
Highlight

Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 17

Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budget Studies

USGS water, energy and biogeochemical 

budget research focuses on observations of hydrologic and biogeochemical 

fluxes across contrasting landscapes 

and analysis of how these fundamentally 

important cycles respond to climate variability and landscape change; enhanced 

measurement of organic and inorganic 

carbon fluxes in aquatic environments, 

using continuous in-stream sensors 

coupled with conventional sampling and 

lab analysis, to foster improved understanding of the role of freshwater carbon 

fluxes in the global carbon budget; and 

synthesis of measurements and understanding of water budget components 

to develop models to predict potential 

changes in water availability in response 

to climate change. A “small watershed 

approach” is used to take advantage of 

well-defined hydrologic inputs and outputs and well-quantified basin characteristics of small watersheds to develop the critical link between plot-scale 

studies and large regional surveys and monitoring programs.

Plot showing nitrate (NO3) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics during the 1993 snowmelt at a 

Sleepers River site in Vermont. Each 

snowmelt peak causes a peak in concentration but for nitrate the peaks 

concentrations diminish as snowmelt 

progresses.

There is uncertainty about the 

source areas and emission types that 

contribute to nitrate (NO3) deposition 

in the Rocky Mountains, which can 

adversely affect sensitive aquatic 

habitats of high-elevation watersheds. Surveys of snowpack depth, 

water content, and chemistry are performed each spring, in early April at 

a Loch Vale, Colorado, site. Because 

contaminants accumulate in the 

snowpack throughout the winter, the 

springtime samples allow calculation 

of total contaminant deposition for the 

winter period.

Winter hiking across Loch 

Vale. Photograph by USGS.
18 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Goal 4: Improve Understanding of Land-Use 

and Land-Cover Change: Rates, Causes, and 

Consequences

Changes in land cover, use and condition affect climate; 

climate and other global change factors, in turn, affect land 

cover, use, and condition. These changes at the land surface 

alter biogeophysical, biogeochemical, and energy exchange 

processes, which affect weather and climate variability at 

local, regional, and global scales. At local and regional levels, 

these changes pose direct challenges for natural resource 

managers as land change can fragment and degrade habitat, 

alter water quality and quantity, and reduce options for managing ecosystem resilience to climate change. Changes resulting 

from natural disturbances (for example, fire, insect outbreaks, 

and drought), land-use change (for example, conversion of 

forests to cropland), or land-use intensification (for example, 

irrigation, multicropping, and urban densification) must be 

considered due to alteration of hydrologic dynamics and 

nitrogen cycling, impacts on water-quality degradation, and 

contributions to weather and climate variability because of 

alteration of energy and water exchange between the land and 

atmosphere. Distinguishing natural disturbances and variability from anthropogenic influence relies on understanding 

how land cover, use, and condition change. Effective land 

management requires interdisciplinary knowledge of patterns, 

processes, and consequences of changes in land use and land 

cover to understand the interaction between human activities 

and natural systems over multiple spatial and temporal scales. 

Because land changes have local origins and regional and 

global consequences, interdisciplinary land-change science 

investigations focus on patterns, processes, and consequences 

at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This USGS global 

change science goal includes the following critical elements: 

• Monitoring patterns of land change, including disturbances, using ground surveys and long-term, highquality geospatial data from calibrated and validated 

remotely sensed imagery; 

• Identifying drivers of change and applying spatially 

and temporally explicit models to forecast plausible 

scenarios of land change; 

• Assessing consequences of past, present, and future 

land change on vulnerability and resilience of coupled 

human-environment systems and the services they 

provide; and 

• Applying land-change science and knowledge to policy 

and decisionmaking to address consequences of land 

change and inform critical DOI issues. 

Pursuing these elements will require close communication with organizations managing the impacts of change 

in land use, cover, and condition, such as DOI bureaus and 

USDA agencies, State resource management agencies, and 

nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Scientific partnerships with the NASA, NOAA, the U.S. Forest Service and 

Natural Resources Conservation Service, the Bureau of 

Census, and others will be required to accomplish the research 

associated with this goal. 

Vision Statement

The USGS will explain how changes in land use, cover, 

condition, and land management alter climate, impact natural 

systems, and affect human health and well-being. 

Major Questions

• Is our current understanding of land-cover characteristics and dynamics adequate for understanding their 

impact on climate, natural systems, and human health 

and well-being?

• What are the major drivers of land change (including 

population, public policy, economics, and technology), 

and how do those drivers interact to affect the regional 

variability of land-use change characteristics?
View of the High Plains, Wyoming and Nebraska. Photograph by Jon Mason, USGS.

Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 19

• How do climate variability and change (including 

extreme events) affect land use, cover, and condition? 

• How will changes in land use, cover, and condition 

affect the ability of ecosystems to provide essential 

goods and services? 

• What past, current, and future patterns and attributes 

of land use, cover, and condition affect carbon and 

nitrogen cycles, sediment production, atmospheric 

processes, and ecosystem structure and function? 

• What are the impacts of future land use, cover, and 

condition on sediment movement, air and water quality, water quantity, and nutrient cycles? 

• What opportunities exist for managing land-use change 

to minimize negative impacts and maximize positive 

outcomes on natural and human systems? 

Strategic Actions and Products

Short Term (1–5 Years)

• Conduct methodological research leading to more 

accurate land-cover maps and statistics. 

• Produce validated maps, statistical analyses, and 

reports on 5-year rates of regional, national, and global 

land-use and land-cover change. 

• Develop regional and national scenarios and projections of U.S. land change over 5- to 50-year periods, 

keyed to various economic and policy assumptions, 

for use in resource planning, climate, and hydrologic 

modeling investigations. 

• Conduct sensitivity studies on how land-use and landcover changes (LULCC) affect surface albedo (reflectance), evaporation and transpiration, snow cover, 

greenhouse gas fluxes, and particulates; analyze how 

type and distribution of land cover affects regional 

weather and climate patterns. 

• Evaluate effects of LULCC on carbon dynamics, 

including analyzing impacts of land use on greenhouse 

gas mitigation and management. 

• Develop an integrated model of how land-use change 

in different climatic settings affects sediment production, storage, transport, and delivery. 

• Assess the impact of cumulative changes in land use, 

cover, and condition, in combination with climate variability and change, on the ecological integrity of the 

Nation’s conservation lands. 

• Develop decision-support tools for communication 

and use of land information by researchers, resource 

managers, and others. 

Longer Term (5–10 Years)

• Publish validated maps, statistical analyses, and reports 

on annual rates of regional, national, and global landuse and land-cover change. 

• Develop a community land-change model that couples 

land use, land cover, and disturbance variables with 

climate, hydrological, biogeochemical, ecosystem, and 

other process models. 

• Report on results of how changes in land use, cover, 

and condition affect soils, ecosystem processes, water 

and nitrogen cycles, plants and wildlife changes, and 

the delivery of ecosystem services.

• Conduct periodic assessments of the impact of land 

change and land cover on ecosystem services.

• Provide decision-support tools for communication and 

use of land information by researchers, resource managers, and others. 
Highlight

Overall spatial change in the United States, 

1973–2000 (percent of ecoregion)

0.4 to 3.0

3.1 to 6.0

6.1 to 10.0

10.1 to 15.0

15.1 to 33.8

EXPLANATION

20 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Overall change in land cover at the ecoregional level for the last quarter of the 20th Century. Note red and orange areas 

with the most dramatic percentage change (Sleeter and others, 2012).

Patterns of U.S. Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

The USGS has a longstanding history of research and assessments dealing with land-change science—the interdisciplinary knowledge of the patterns, processes, and consequences of changes in land use, land cover, and land condition 

at multiple spatial and temporal scales that is associated with the interaction of human activities and natural systems. 

A series of land-cover geospatial datasets is produced using Landsat remotely sensed data, and national and regional 

land-change studies describing the characteristics and dynamics of contemporary U.S. land cover are conducted. The 

rates and types of land-use and land-cover change vary from place to place and over time. Understanding the tempo or 

pulse of change is necessary for identifying and managing the local to regional impacts of change, the cumulative effects 

of change, and the patterns of future change. USGS land-cover change studies also provide information that enables 

scientists to determine the role of land change in modifying the exchange of water, energy, and greenhouse gasses with 

the atmosphere, interacting with the hydrological cycle, and affecting habitat and biodiversity. Land-use and land-cover 

change studies also provide the historical basis for forecasting future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change. 
Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 21

Goal 5: Improve Understanding and Predictions 

of Changes in Hydrologic Processes, Droughts, 

Floods, and Water Availability Under Changing 

Land Use and Climate

Water sustains human societies and ecosystems. Water in 

snowpack, glaciers, permafrost, soils, bedrock, lakes, rivers, 

and streams represents a commodity, provides a range of services, and also poses risks to human populations and natural 

and managed ecosystems. Water affects and is affected by 

human activities, such as land use, water use, and fire management. Hydrological processes are key controls on humandriven changes in global cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and other 

elements. The water cycle and climate are inextricably linked. 

Natural resource and disaster managers, as well as 

emergency responders, need information and tools to confront 

the challenges of planning and management under highly 

uncertain projections of climate change. In practice and as 

used here, water “availability” is both a matter of the available 

quantities of water and the availability of water of acceptable 

(for the uses envisioned) quality. Quantifying the impacts of 

altered water availability on ecosystems and human societies 

and identifying effective management responses require 

climate-change information and process-based understanding. 

Commonly, the response of river basins to shifting climatic 

factors such as precipitation, radiation, and temperature are 

masked and may be dominated by changes in water use, water 

management, and land use and by natural variability at annual 

to multidecadal scales. These masking influences are important stressors in their own right. Projections of future precipitation amount, intensity, and event frequency have been only 

poorly constrained by climate science, so projections of water 

availability and water-related hazards are, and will continue to 

be, highly uncertain. Gaps in understanding of sensitivity of 

hydrologic processes to climate increase the uncertainties with 

respect to climate change. Providing managers with meaningful information for long-term planning can be accomplished 

by a program of research on coupled land-atmosphere processes, alongside a vigorous program of empirical research 

that aims to document, based on historical and proxy records 

(with appropriate ties to Goal 1 efforts), the hydrologic 

changes now underway. Synthesis efforts, wherein model 

results and empirical water data are explored and compared on 

an ongoing basis, will be necessary to interpret and plan for 

these changes. 

USGS monitoring, analysis, and modeling activities are 

key to detecting, understanding, and predicting changes in 

hydrology. The USGS led the Nation in developing monitoring methods and standards that enhance national monitoring systems to address global change. USGS predictive and 

diagnostic modeling expertise for surface water, groundwater, water chemistry, soil salination, sediment transport, 

and geomorphic change also will lead to the next generation of hydrologic models. The USGS has a long history of 

collaboration with local, State, and national water-resources 

organizations, including the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and 

the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, water resources departments in all 50 States, and hundreds of local public water 

agencies and institutions. Building on such collaborations will 

provide important baselines and many real world opportunities to address water resource challenges with changing water 

demands, including those for ecological uses and supplies, 

changing land use, and changing climate.

Vision Statement

The USGS will provide scientific knowledge and tools 

for understanding and predicting impacts of land-use and 

climate change on water resources. This knowledge and these 

tools will inform integrated resource management and adaptation strategies to ensure water for human activities and to 

protect human life, property, and ecosystems.

Major Questions

• How can we improve characterization of natural variability for improved management and mitigation of 

drought and flood impacts and facilitate attribution of 

hydrologic changes to natural variability, human activities on the landscape, and decadal-centennial climate 

change? 

• Where, when, and how do anthropogenic climate 

change and natural climate variability present the 

most urgent challenges to water, land, and biological 

resource managers? 

• Which land-use and water-use practices enhance or 

decrease the effects of climate change on the Nation’s 

citizens and lands? 

• How do climate change and land use affect water uses, 

runoff, streamflow, sediment transport, geomorphology, soil chemistry, groundwater recharge, water 

quality, water temperatures, water use, and freshwater 

availability?

• How do climate change and land and water use affect 

the availability of water to terrestrial and aquatic 

ecosystems and thereby affect ecological patterns and 

processes? 

Strategic Actions and Products

Short Term (1–5 Years) 

• Define USGS national monitoring-network requirements and evaluate existing networks to facilitate 

timely detection of climate and land-use change 

impacts on streamflow, groundwater, water budgets, 

sediment transport, and water quality. 
22 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

• Re-establish monitoring at discontinued sites that 

already have high-quality, long-term hydrologic 

records needed to characterize ongoing changes.

• Accelerate analysis of long-term USGS hydrologic 

records with the aim to improve estimates of hydrologic statistics (for example, seasonal and annual 

means and extremes) and to understand their trends.

• Produce a national summary of observed and projected 

climate change and land-use impacts on water supply quantities and on flow and temperature regimes in 

altered and unaltered systems.

• Conduct research and develop models, modeling strategies, and scenarios of impacts of climate, water use, 

and land use on water quality to develop improved 

predictive methods.

• Execute initial scoping for a national assessment of historical and projected climate change impacts on water 

quality, integrated with the National Water Quality 

Assessment (NAWQA) Program. 

• Assess changing sediment and dust mobilization and 

transport mechanisms, their relation to land-use and 

climate change, and their geomorphic and hydrologic 

consequences.

• Produce a national-scale evaluation of changing 

and projected flood and drought risks under climate 

change.

• Determine the effects of streamflow alteration on 

stream ecosystems and the physical and chemical 

mechanisms by which streamflow alteration causes 

degradation.

Highlight

Areas of the conterminous United States where 

droughts are more frequent (red) or less frequent 

(blue) under the influences of oceanic changes in 

A, the North Pacific, and B, North Atlantic Oceans on 

decade-to-decade timescales (McCabe and others, 

2004).

Regional Hydroclimatology in the USGS

The discharge and quality of U.S. rivers and 

reservoirs fluctuate on timescales ranging from 

minutes to centuries in complicated ways that 

often seem random. By taking a large-scale 

view of those fluctuations and linking them to 

global scale climatic processes, researchers 

at the USGS are beginning to see a great deal 

more structure and predictability than has 

been recognized previously. The Nation’s water 

resources are tied together on regional scales 

by their shared responses to temperature and 

precipitation variations that, in turn, are highly 

affected by atmospheric circulation and interactions with the Earth’s ocean and land surfaces 

on global scales.

Recent studies by USGS scientists have linked 

the Nation’s water resources to climatic events 

like El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical 

Pacific and decadal climatic variability in the 

North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. The 

linkages provide a better scientific basis for predicting and planning for droughts, floods, and 

water supplies months to years in advance and 

also are building the scientific basis for projecting possible effects of future climate changes. 

By learning to recognize the role of climatic 

variables, other influences on streamflow can 

be identified, such as land-use change and 

upstream resource management. 
Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 23

While the Souris River was in the throes of record high flooding in Minot, North Dakota, O.C. Fisher Lake near San Angelo, Texas 

has been experiencing the exact opposite for a number of years now—a ground-cracking drought. These locations have more than 

their extreme water conditions in common. Though about 1,000 miles apart, these places are situated north and south of each other 

just west of the 100th meridian of longitude. Photograph at left: Flooding at Minot, North Dakota, June 26, 2011. Photograph by 

Marisa Lubeck, USGS. Photograph at right: O.C. Fisher Lake outlet tower vicinity near San Angelo, Texas, June 23, 2011. Photograph 

by Travis Dowell, USGS.

Longer Term (5–10 Years) 

• Produce a national summary of observed and potential 

impacts of the combination of land-use and climate 

change on water quality and soil salination (in collaboration with land-use and water-quality evaluations by 

the USGS NAWQA Program).

• Develop decision support strategies, data resources, 

and tools for water planning and management under 

land-use, water-use, and climate change, including 

strategies, tools, hydrologic projections, and information resources for scenario-based assessments, management under uncertainty, and identification of vulnerability thresholds in resource systems.

• Produce water-use forecasts and scenarios under climate change and land-use scenarios for planning and 

modeling.

• Produce national evaluation and projections of flood 

and drought risks under climate and land-use changes 

with direct ties to within-agency and interagency 

efforts like the National Integrated Drought Information System, WaterSMART, and flood-risk guidance 

programs. 

• Develop terrestrial system models that synthesize 

understanding and predictive capabilities for hydrology, biogeochemistry, landscape conditions, biota, and 

ecological processes.

• Conduct research to model and observe how changes 

in climate, land use, land cover, and streamflow will 

affect sediment transport, geomorphology, riparian and 

aquatic habitats, and riparian and aquatic ecosystem 

structure and function.
24 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Goal 6: Improve Understanding and Prediction 

of Coastal Response to Sea-Level Rise, Climatic 

Change, and Human Development

Coastal areas are highly complex systems, vulnerable to 

abrupt change, and stressed by human development activities. 

Future sea-level rise, coupled with changes in storm intensity and freshwater runoff, may result in dramatic changes in 

coastal systems. The relation between coastal processes and 

climate-related forcings has become an important focus of 

USGS research in recent years. Understanding onshore and 

nearshore impacts of global change is crucial to people who 

live in or are dependent on services of coastal regions. Helping 

coastal communities, including Native American tribes and 

indigenous peoples, anticipate and adapt to change within 

defined ranges of uncertainty is now possible with tools developed and demonstrated by the USGS in its coastal studies 

programs and projects. These studies (for example, Plant and 

others, 2008; Pendleton and others, 2010; Hapke and others, 

2011) emphasize understanding, monitoring, and modeling of 

coastal processes, including impacts on threatened mangrove, 

coral reef, tidal marsh, and estuary and bay coastal systems. 

The USGS is part of a research community that evaluates and predicts processes that cause relative sea-level change 

along the coast. Research on regional and global processes, 

such as land subsidence due to sediment loading and groundwater extraction, regional glacio-isostatic adjustment, marsh 

accretion rates, vertical tectonic movements, and cryospheric 

mass balance and ice dynamics, is needed to assess future 

rates and impacts of sea-level rise. Understanding the rate of 

sea-level rise and its spatial and temporal variability along our 

coasts is critical to forecasting coastal impacts.

Studies of modern processes and investigations of 

sea-level rise in the recent and distant past will provide the 

scientific basis to understand and anticipate future changes, 

including the potential for extreme and abrupt change. Analysis of geologic and environmental records of past sea-level rise 

and coastal response will provide the observational records 

to test models, assess the potential for extreme change, and 

understand how sea-level and other environmental indicators 

respond to changing climate.

Vision Statement 

As the impacts of climate change, sea-level rise, and 

human development intensify, predictive tools and solid scientific understanding of climate-change processes and coastal 

response will enhance the stewardship of coastal resources and 

lead to safer, more resilient coastal communities.

Major Questions

• How rapidly has sea level risen in the past? What can 

we expect for future relative sea-level rise over timescales ranging from years to centuries? What extremes 

in sea-level rise rates are possible? How does sea-level 

rise vary regionally? 

• How will changes in seasonal storm activity and intensity affect coasts? 

• How will continental shelf, slope, and coastal ecosystems, including wetlands, Arctic shorelines, coral reefs, 

barrier islands, and estuaries, respond to the combined 

impacts of storms, sea-level rise, increased water temperature, and coastal erosion?

• How will the combination of changing storm conditions, sea-level rise, and changes in wetlands, coral 

reefs, and barrier shorelines impact the vulnerability 

and resiliency of coastal communities, fisheries, tourism, and other economic and ecosystem services?

• How will low-lying coastal systems along the U.S. 

coastline respond to sea-level rise with and without 

adaptation measures?

• How will sea-level rise and climate change affect small 

islands and DOI trust territories in the Pacific and 

Atlantic regions?

• How accurate do digital elevation models need to be to 

accurately assess the impacts of sea-level rise?

Strategic Actions and Products 

Short Term (1–5 Years)

• Conduct process-oriented studies to quantitatively 

identify impacts of sea-level rise and other stressors on 

coastal systems for each U.S. coastal region.

• Provide high-resolution sea-level rise scenarios for 

U.S. coastlines, in cooperation with partners like 

NOAA, incorporating coastal, eustatic, and steric 

processes.

• Develop predictive models of coastal retreat, land-use 

and habitat change, and land loss under a range of sealevel rise and concomitant coastal adaptation scenarios.

• Synthesize current science regarding likely and maximum rates of sea-level rise, combining cryospheric, 

geologic, biologic, hydrologic, remote sensing, and 

modeling assets of the USGS.

• Synthesize information on glacier mass balance in the 

United States and, in collaboration with outside organizations, synthesize glacier and ice-sheet contributions 

to sea-level rise.
Highlight

80° 76° 72° 68°

44°

40°

32°

36°

28°

Miami, Fla.

Charleston, S.C.

Outer Banks

Chesapeake Bay

NewYork, 

N.Y.

Portland, Maine

EXPLANATION

Probability

1

0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

Virtually certain

Probability of shoreline erosion

exceeding 1 meter per year

Exceptionally unlikely

Very likely

Likely

About as likely as not

Unlikely

Very unlikely

Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 25

Providing Coastal Managers and Communities with Tools to Assess 

Coastal Change Vulnerability

Initial USGS regional assessments of the 

relative vulnerability of different coastal 

environments to future sea-level rise are 

based on the relative contributions and 

interactions of six variables: historical rates 

of relative sea-level change, tide range, 

wave height, coastal slope, geomorphology, and historical shoreline change rate. 

This framework allows scientists to make 

probabilistic predictions of the future state 

of coastal environments for outcomes such 

as shoreline change, wetland survival, and 

changes in the depth to groundwater. The 

predictions also have estimates of outcome 

uncertainty that can be expressed as both 

numbers (for example, 90 percent) and 

words (for example, very likely). The ability 

to communicate potential impacts, including 

the contribution of sea-level rise through 

observation of past sea level, in terms of a 

probabilistic prediction can improve scientists’ ability to support decisionmaking and 

evaluate specific questions about management alternatives.

Probabilities of shoreline change can be calculated with a Bayesian Network informed 

by information regarding rate of long-term 

shoreline change, rate of long-term sealevel rise, coastal slope, geomorphic setting, 

mean tidal range and mean wave height. The 

resulting probabilities can be expressed as 

likelihoods and described in terms used by 

the IPCC for climate-change impacts. This 

map shows the probability of shoreline erosion exceeding 1 meter per year (modified 

from Gutierrez and others, 2011).

Longer Term (5–10 Years)

• Conduct integrated watershed and coastal impact studies of changing freshwater discharge, sediment, and 

nutrient influx on coastal receiving waters. 

• Continue and enhance national coastline monitoring 

and mapping of physical and environmental changes 

using new geospatial technologies and high-resolution 

elevation data to produce a national coastline vulnerability assessment. 

• Develop and interpret historic and geologic records 

of sea level to provide reconstructions of baseline 

conditions for periods of warm climate and elevated 

greenhouse gas concentrations. 

• Develop assessments of sea-level rise and climate 

change for U.S. islands and insular territories. 

• Develop assessments of changing coastal vulnerability 

as a consequence of climate change-driven alterations 

of protective natural features (wetlands, coral reefs, 

barrier beaches, and Arctic sea ice).

• Develop datasets on coastal inundation by storm surge 

for use in coastal hydrodynamic modeling to assess 

storm-surge and sea-level rise risk and vulnerability.
26 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Goal 7: Improve Understanding and Prediction of 

Biological Responses to Global Change

Twentieth Century trends and projections for the coming decades point to rapid alterations of climate and physical 

conditions; land cover, use, and condition; and biogeochemical 

cycles. Although there may be some positive benefits from the 

predicted climate changes for some biota, these changes will 

pose significant challenges to managing biological resources. 

Loss and fragmentation of habitat, modification of freshwater 

resources, changes in wildfire frequency and impacts, insect 

outbreaks, alteration of disturbance regimes, drought, and 

zoonotic diseases spread by humans are among the drivers that 

threaten the viability and genetic diversity of populations and 

communities. 

In the short term, increased air and water temperatures 

may lead to increased productivity in aquatic and terrestrial 

ecosystems. It is anticipated, however, that biota will generally 

shift to higher latitudes and altitudes as the climate warms, 

and there may be unexpected responses as these changes cross 

tipping points for ecosystems, populations, and species. The 

scope and rate of biotic responses to rising temperatures will 

be affected by shifts in precipitation regimes, availability of 

suitable substrates and habitats, and other environmental factors, including responses to an expected increased frequency 

of wildfires. Changes in seasonality will affect phenology, 

potentially disrupting interactions that determine the persistence of species, as well as how ecosystems function and what 

services they provide. New connections among habitats and 

unintentional dispersal by humans will provide opportunities 

for organisms to spread. These conditions can lead to novel 

problems when climate change, coupled with this enhanced 

mobility, allows pests, pathogens, and invasive species to 

colonize habitats from which they previously were excluded. 

Many such biotic changes are already underway, giving 

national urgency to addressing these challenges. Of particular 

concern are tribal cultures that are based on connections to the 

land and the foods the land and water provide. Treaty agreements have limited the areas in which Native peoples can 

harvest those foods. Climate change threatens Native peoples’ 

ability to harvest traditional foods by changing the timing of 

migrations and the locations of vegetation. If the range of certain foods changes in response to climate change (for example, 

they move to cooler northern areas), they may not be available 

on the tribes’ usual and accustomed harvest lands.

The USGS will provide the science needed to support the 

management of biological resources in this rapidly changing 

world. Studies of past climatic and environmental changes 

provide insights into how life on our planet reacts to largescale changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry. Extensive long-term physical, chemical, and biological monitoring 

efforts allow the USGS to determine how species and ecosystems are responding to climatic and land-use changes at local 

to continental scales. Efforts such as the National Phenology 

Network, the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science 

Center (NCCWSC), and the regional Climate Science Centers 

(CSCs) will enhance USGS capabilities to support resource 

managers in areas such as the following: 

• Forecasting and scenario development of climate 

impacts to fish, wildlife, and habitats—Climate Science Centers will use predictions from an ensemble of 

climate scenarios to assess the effect of precipitation 

and temperature changes on stream hydrology and the 

occupancy of streams by fish and mussels of interest to 

resource managers.

• Region-specific climate information—Climate Science Centers and research and development projects 

within the Climate and Land Use Change Mission Area 

will provide regional data products, such as derivative 

products developed using downscaled climate predictions (for example, vegetation dynamics, fish occupancy, and sea-level rise maps) that serve as a common 

scientific point of reference for resource managers in a 

region. 

• Integrated monitoring design and protocols—Climate 

Science Centers will coordinate with NAWQA and 

the National Water Quality Monitoring Council to 

develop a comprehensive assessment of air, water, and 

terrestrial monitoring networks, by region, to allow 

researchers and managers to access information about 

possible monitoring data collected in geographic areas 

of interest.

• Development of best practices—the National Climate 

Change and Wildlife Science Center will provide 

national and multiregion syntheses and intercomparisons of science products developed by the CSCs, 

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, and other 

collaborators, providing information useful to address 

large-scale management decisions.

• Thresholds in biotic responses to change—research 

on the critical rates of change pertaining to species 

distributions, phenology, genetic adaptation potential 

(that is, adaptive capacity), and ecosystem-level state 

changes will be conducted.

• Evaluation of adaptation strategies—the efficacy of 

decision frameworks (for example, Structured Decisionmaking) for implementing long-term adaptation 

strategies and management responses will be evaluated.

• Potential future impacts of climate and land-use change 

on ecosystems and ecosystem services—the relative 

vulnerability of habitats, ecosystems, and associated 

ecological services to climate impacts and other stressors will be evaluated.
Core Strengths, Partnerships, and Science Integration 27

Attention will focus on identifying regions and ecosystems 

especially vulnerable (for example, coastal, alpine, desert 

regions) to the effects of changes in climate, land use, and 

other environmental factors. This will be done in concert with 

appropriate partners, including DOI bureaus, State natural 

resources and conservation agencies, and nongovernmental 

organizations. 

Vision Statement

The USGS will provide scientific knowledge needed to 

manage the Nation’s biological endowment affected by rapidly 

changing climate and land use. 

Major Questions

• How will changes in climate and land use, cover, and 

condition affect local to regional ecosystem structure 

and function, and how will these ecosystem changes 

interact with climate, hydrology, and biogeochemical 

cycles? How will ecological response be affected by 

the spatial and temporal scales at which climate and 

land use varies and changes? 

• How will changes in climate and land use affect species, populations, and ecosystems, and how will these 

changes affect the distribution and extent of current 

and potential species habitats? 

• How will changes in habitat fragmentation or connectivity affect the ability of species and ecosystems 

to adjust their geographic distributions in response to 

global change?

• How will other critical ecological stressors (for 

example, invasive species, pathogens, altered nutrient cycles, insect outbreaks) interact with climate and 

land-use change to affect ecosystem components and 

processes? 

Strategic Actions and Products

Short Term (1–5 Years)

• Investigate how biological systems (including soil 

biota and their activities/processes) have adapted to 

past changes in climate, land use, and atmospheric 

chemistry.

• Create dynamic, nationally integrated maps of the 

distribution of species, their habitats, and other factors that may control their distribution (for example, 

insects, pathogens, disease). 

• Work with other agencies and the broader scientific 

community to establish standards, priorities, and 

networks to better monitor ongoing changes in species, 

ecosystems, and landscapes associated with changing 

abiotic and biotic factors.

• Develop regional and national science agendas in 

collaboration with resource managers and scientific 

experts; use these agendas to identify commonalities 

and issues.

• Identify thresholds in key processes that occur in 

response to global change in terrestrial and aquatic 

ecosystems.

• Identify ecosystems most vulnerable to global change 

(for example, coast, alpine, desert) and develop 

research and monitoring strategies for these areas, 

including documenting their biodiversity, baseline 

conditions of processes and biota, and the response of 

these processes and biota to future changes.

• Assess current and likely future habitat fragmentation 

and connectivity in targeted landscapes and identify 

the role that wildfires may play in that fragmentation. 

Longer Term (5–10 Years) 

• Document diversity from genetic to population scales 

for plants, soil microorganisms, and fish and wildlife 

species of concern.

• Identify specific ecosystem thresholds, their potential 

reversibility, and their environmental consequences, as 

well as associated uncertainties, to the interacting positive and negative effects of climate, land use, and other 

environmental drivers through evaluation of long-term 

monitoring, paleo-environmental, and model data. 

• Develop integrated process models that combine landscape properties; land use, cover, and condition; and 

disturbances with climate, hydrological, biogeochemical, ecosystem, and other process models to predict 

impacts of future changes.

• Examine how changes in external drivers (for example, 

invasive species, pathogens, altered nutrient cycles, 

insect outbreaks, wildfires) interact with global 

changes to affect ecosystem components and processes.

• Investigate the mechanistic relations among soil biota 

and decomposition rates, nutrient dynamics, and soil 

organic matter stability and how these relations affect 

ecosystem structure and function, including carbon 

cycles.
Highlight

Wind speed, in meters 

per second

25.0

22.5

20.0

17.5

15.0

EXPLANATION

Perennial 

grasses

All perennial 

vegetation

EXPLANATION

Canopy cover, in percent Sediment flux, in grams per meter per minute

0

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

20

40

60

10 11 12 13 14

Mean annual temperature in previous year, in degrees Celsius

A

B

28 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Plant and Ecosystem Responses to Climate and Land Use on the Colorado Plateau

Paleorecords show that drylands in the western 

United States were once coniferous woodlands. With 

current warmer and drier conditions, these areas 

are dominated by grasses and shrubs. Global models 

predict that future conditions will be even hotter and 

drier, resulting in a decrease in soil moisture and, 

thus, lowered growth and survival of desert plants. 

Three lines of USGS research indicate that grasses 

will be especially vulnerable to higher temperatures. 

First, analysis of a 20-year vegetation monitoring 

record in protected national parks across the Colorado Plateau indicates that many perennial plants, 

especially native perennial bunchgrasses, decline in 

abundance with warmer temperatures (upper graph 

and both pictures). Second, native bunchgrasses 

growing under lamps warming the soils 2°C have 

significantly lower photosynthesis and higher mortality rates than those without additional warming. Third, 

grasses under shelters that exclude 30 percent of 

incoming moisture (imitating the effect of warming on 

soil moisture) are also dying, whereas those outside 

the shelters are not. 

Declines in perennial grass cover, coupled with compressional disturbance to biological soil crusts—the 

community of cyanobacteria, mosses, and lichens 

that hold the soil together—can push these ecosystems past a tipping point, accelerating land degradation and the loss of biological resources. A decline 

in perennial grasses and biocrusts accelerate the 

magnitude of dust storm activity over a range of wind 

speeds (lower graph), which has negative effects 

on human and ecosystem health. Dust deposited on 

the snowpack accelerates melt rates. This increases 

evaporative loss as soils are exposed longer and 

results in less water entering streams. Perennial 

grasses are at the base of the food chain, and their 

decline can reverberate throughout the system. Loss 

of perennial grasses also can make the ecosystem 

more susceptible to invasive species and increase 

fire frequency, causing reductions in native plant and 

animal diversity.

The graphs show A, perennial grass and all perennial vegetation cover, and B, modeled wind-driven 

sediment flux at five wind speeds in relation to mean 

annual temperature in the previous years in perennial 

grasslands. From Munson and others (2011).

Repeat photographs of Chesler Park, Utah in a 

year with A, cool, wet conditions, and B, dry, hot 

conditions.
Monitoring: A Critical Component of Global Change Science and Adaptive Resource Management 29

Monitoring: A Critical Component of Global Change Science and Adaptive 

Resource Management

A strong, relevant, and integrated monitoring program is 

a foundation of global change research and the USGS Climate 

and Land Use Change Mission Area. Tracking factors of environmental change and their effects on natural resources is a 

high priority for DOI bureaus and other resource-management 

partners at the State and Federal levels. Meeting current and 

future challenges in monitoring and detecting an expanded 

range of environmental variables will require the USGS to 

upgrade, improve, and in some cases reposition its current 

networks. Innovative approaches and new perspectives can be 

used to address an expanded range of environmental variables. Effective partnerships with other institutions monitoring global change and its impacts on natural resources will 

maximize efficiencies by jointly planning and implementing 

monitoring strategies.

The USGS Science Strategy (2007) recognized the 

central role of monitoring, recommending that global change 

research should rely on existing “...decades of observational 

data and long-term records to interpret consequences of climate variability and change to the Nation’s biological populations, ecosystems, and land and water resources.” Some of 

the monitoring needs to address this plan’s science goals and 

objectives are listed in the following examples:

• Detection of changes and trends in shorelines in 

response to sea-level rise, subsidence, storms, and 

human development; trends in accretion rates; and 

other processes that affect sustainability of coastal 

systems. 

• Timing, amounts, and availability of water; impacts 

of droughts and floods on terrestrial and aquatic 

resources. 

• Rates and geographic extent of land-use and land-cover 

change.

• Effects of human activities on landscape properties, 

nutrient, and carbon cycling.

• Changes in abundance and distribution of plants and 

animals; trends in variables that indicate ecosystem 

condition.

The necessity to monitor interdependencies among global 

change drivers and their effects highlights the need for an integrated, Bureau-level monitoring emphasis and strategy. 

Throughout its history, the USGS has been a national and 

international leader in the conception, design, and implementation of cooperative monitoring networks to track environmental indicators. USGS remote sensing capabilities, for example, 

provide data for more than 40 years of evidence of global 

changes in the Earth’s land and water, and USGS hydrologic monitoring networks provide historical data, in some 

locations, to the late 19th Century. USGS monitoring capabilities include nationwide monitoring of hydrology, land cover 

and land use, migratory birds, species-through-ecosystem 

conditions, and phenology. USGS monitoring platforms range 

from detailed plot scales, to widely distributed streamgage 

networks, and airborne and satellite imaging systems.

Many current monitoring protocols and networks were 

designed with other data needs in mind and may not be 

capable of detecting and tracking the changes anticipated in 

response to climate-driven global-level change trends. Existing monitoring efforts need to be evaluated for the following 

reasons. First, priorities for monitoring locations may change. 

USGS streamgages are at many locations that are important 

for flood prediction and reservoir management and are commonly funded on a cooperative basis but may not be capable 

of monitoring areas sensitive to global change. The monitoring 

of plant or animal populations designed to detect the effects of 

one threat may need to be changed to address new issues. Second, global change effects may require significant increases in 

monitoring for emerging issues, such as dust, nitrogen deposition, and carbon and sediment transport in rivers. Third, it will 

be increasingly important to establish multivariable monitoring networks, where hydrologic, biotic, meteorologic, and 

other factors are measured at the same locations. Placement 

of sites needs to be planned such that these in-place measurements can be “scaled up” to a larger geographic context to 

provide comprehensive monitoring of plants, animals, and 

ecosystem condition and to detect land changes in areas that 

lack in situ monitoring. Synoptic monitoring of selected geoand biophysical variables using remote sensing is an important 

tool in scaling up plot data and, therefore, in assessing how 

human and natural disturbances affect physical landscapes, 

plants, animals, and ecosystem condition. With its rich historical land remote sensing archive, the USGS can provide the 

consistent, calibrated terrestrial time-series datasets needed to 

detect and monitor global change events and processes. However, as with other monitoring activities, land remote sensing 

systems will need to be managed specifically to detect and 

understand biotic and abiotic conditions and trends attributable 

to global change. 

The USGS can lead evaluation and design of new multipurpose, multivariable monitoring networks even as it continues quantitative enhancements of existing monitoring systems 

to assure data for timely, reliable, and authoritative detection 

and attribution of global change impacts. 

Monitoring at multiple spatial and temporal scales with 

locally to nationally consistent measurements and integrated 

data products will require coordination among Climate and 

Land Use Change, other USGS mission areas and programs, 

and our external partners engaged in monitoring (for example, 

States, NOAA, NASA, NSF, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 

Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, and 
Highlight

30 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Droughts have had significant effects on landscapes 

of the United States, particularly in the semiarid Great 

Plains region, as shown in the adjacent images. 

In the Great Plains, large areas of landscape are covered with stabilized (vegetated) sand dunes. During dry 

periods, when there is too little precipitation to sustain 

vegetation, sand dunes can become active again. Shown 

here are two aerial photographs of the same landscape 

in the Great Plains region, on the New Mexico–Texas 

border. In recent decades, such as in this 1991 photograph A, dunes are largely stabilized by vegetation. 

During the 1930s drought, however, many of these dunes 

were fully active, as shown in the 1936 photograph B. 

Reactivation of Great Plains dunes in a future drought 

would impact thousands of square kilometers of the 

region and have significant effects on grazing land, cropland, wildlife habitats, and infrastructure.

A. Quay County, New Mexico, 1991

B. Quay County, New Mexico, 1936

tribal groups). Coordination will strengthen each organization’s efforts, help develop common protocols, allow 

better interoperability among databases, and effectively 

communicate results to all, including policymakers and 

the public.

Three specific actions will help guide the USGS 

in designing and instituting an integrated and strategic 

monitoring plan: 

1. Establish a standing USGS Monitoring Advisory 

Group, comprised of representatives from USGS 

science centers and mission area national-level programs, to determine what global change monitoring 

efforts are best suited for the USGS:

• Identifying core USGS monitoring strengths. 

• Expanding and confirming future monitoring 

needs outlined in this report.

• Identifying gaps where USGS core monitoring 

capabilities could be applied. 

• Identifying and recommending research needed 

to support monitoring efforts.

• Recommending ways to modify current monitoring efforts to better detect global change and the 

protocol development needed to enhance detection of global change.

• Recommending ways to fill the voids in monitoring that hamper progress toward the science 

goals described in Section 3 of this document.

2. Work with partners to establish a standing Interagency Monitoring Advisory Group comprised of 

representatives from the USGS Monitoring Advisory Group (above) and external partners to develop 

a clear monitoring strategy spanning site-specific to 

global scales. This monitoring strategy will minimize duplication of effort and maximize coverage, 

integration, reliability, and timeliness of global 

change detection through partnerships. The group is 

needed to address the following key questions:

• Do our existing monitoring networks and 

activities support high-quality basic scientific 

research?

• What data are needed at what scales for accurate 

detection of long-term change?

• Are current observational and monitoring networks adequate for detecting changes associated with global change in a timely and reliable 

manner?
Monitoring: A Critical Component of Global Change Science and Adaptive Resource Management 31

• How can partnerships enhance existing and planned 

networks; what will be the governance for these partnerships; and who would be responsible for what data?

• What new methods, standards, sites, and observations 

need to be developed and integrated to provide the 

monitoring necessary for change detection, attribution of causes of change, and management of consequences?

• How can new data, previously collected information, 

and data from different observational methods and different agencies be integrated in a manner most useful 

to scientists, managers, policymakers, and the public?

• How do we monitor opportunistically after extreme 

climatic events and ecological disturbances, such as 

in evaluating pathways of succession after episodes of 

fires, insect outbreaks, and plant die-offs synchronized 

at the regional to sub-continental scale (for example, 

the 2002–2003 drought in the American West)?

• How can remotely sensed and in situ data be most 

effectively integrated to develop consistent time series 

useful for detecting and monitoring evidence of global 

change?

• How can data from the geologic record, historical data, 

and newly collected data best be used to assess the efficacy of models that simulate observed environmental 

responses to climate change and land use?

• How can information from data-model comparisons 

best be used to improve our ability to project potential 

future changes in plants, animals, and water resources?

• How can long-term or spatially extensive datasets best 

be used for detection of global change? For example, 

how best can migratory bird information or historical 

photos and images for change-detection maps of critical and sensitive areas be used to detect global change?

3. Enhance and ensure effective USGS monitoring of global 

change phenomena through the following actions: 

• Manage national land remote sensing assets; implement, in conjunction with NASA, Landsat and other 

satellite missions; develop calibrated and validated 

geophysical measurements and integrated data 

products with the accuracy and precision needed to 

map, measure, and monitor land changes attributed to 

climate change, other natural disturbances, and human 

activity; and identify and evaluate new remote sensing 

technologies to provide measurements needed to detect 

and monitor global change.

• Use recommendations from the advisory groups above 

to establish or enhance monitoring sites in areas highly 

vulnerable to global change. Multiple variables (hydrologic, climatic, biotic processes and components, 

socioeconomic, and other factors) will be measured at 

these sites in ways that allow the advisory groups to 

answer local- to national-scale questions through the 

integration of both data and modeling.

• Maintain and enhance more specialized networks (for 

example, streamgages, dust sources, deposition, and 

animal populations) where needed to detect global 

change.

• Ensure that the life cycle of data gathered by monitoring networks includes quality assurance and control, 

management, and dissemination plans.

The Colorado River runs dry on the United States–Mexico 

border 2 miles below the Morelos Dam. Photograph taken 

January 13, 2009, by Pete McBride, USGS.
Landsat 4 satellite images 

showing the development of 

sediment-established land 

over time in the Wax Lake 

Delta region in Louisiana.

Highlight

32 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

The international climate-change community requires consistent global observations and measurements 

for climate monitoring. To accomplish this goal, “essential climate variables” measuring the atmosphere, 

oceans, and land have been defined that are technically and economically feasible for systematic observation and are needed to meet the goals of the U.S. National Assessment and a host of international groups 

conducting climate-change assessments. Several of the 14 land climate variables referred to as Terrestrial 

Essential Climate Variables (ECV) can only be measured by in situ observation, whereas others are suitable 

for measurement by remote sensing technologies. USGS has initiated the development of ECVs from data 

collected by the Landsat missions, which constitute the longest continuous record of satellite observations 

of the Earth’s land surface. The 40-year Landsat record represents the longest and most comprehensive 

global record of global land change ever assembled. This record is particularly valuable for differentiating 

between human-caused and natural change. The development, calibration, and validation of terrestrial 

ECVs from the Landsat record will require the integration of airborne, satellite, and in situ measurements 

using robust data assimilation and modeling techniques.
Interrelations of Climate and Land Use Change and Other Mission Areas 33

Figure 4. Climate and Land Use Change interacts with the other mission areas to understand global change.

Interrelations of Climate and Land Use Change and Other Mission Areas

This Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy 

emphasizes research and development activities that embrace 

the broad definition of global change, referenced at the beginning of this circular, that includes alterations in climate, land 

productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric 

chemistry, and ecological systems that may change the capacity of the Earth to sustain life. This science strategy applies 

this concept of global change to define the USGS tradition 

of conducting science to assist society in understanding and 

responding to changes in the environment at all spatial scales.

The seven goals for CLU each interact with the other six 

mission areas to various degrees. Climate and land-use change 

science will support the activities of the other six science 

strategies through integrated scientific research, monitoring, 

and modeling activities on a wide range of topics. The seven 

USGS science missions will be coordinated (fig. 4) such that 

research projects, topical expertise, databases, and field activities and laboratory facilities are made available to decisionmakers in a seamless way. The following section summarizes 

some complementary activities shared among USGS mission 

areas.

Core Science Systems.—Geographic, geologic, hydrologic, and biologic data on Earth systems are essential information to any investigation and evaluation of the impacts of 

climate and land-use change. To understand the causes and 

effects of climate and land-use change, core science information is needed through time and over space. Monitoring 

networks, including data collection, storage, dissemination, 

analysis, and observation registries, are key components of 

Core Science Systems (CSS) that support integrated monitoring. The CSS concept of situational awareness offers a framework that facilitates and enhances integrated science. The 

focus on change within climate and land use will be strongly 

supported by the temporal component of the CSS situational 

awareness framework. Not only will diverse data be managed 

and discoverable for multiple uses and analyses, the results 

of analyses will be presented to the user community in an 

efficient, consistent manner. 
The Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) incorporates 

satellite observations of vegetation to monitor at a finer spatial 

detail than other commonly used drought indicators. Photograph 

by USGS.

34 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Ecosystems.—Ecosystems science gathers knowledge essential to climate and land-use change as it seeks to 

understand fundamental ecosystem processes and functions. 

Likewise, changes in climate and land use affect ecosystem 

functioning worldwide. For example, the loss of protective 

wetlands and coral reefs may have significant impacts on 

coastal communities given projected effects of global change 

that include sea-level rise and increased hurricane intensity. 

Developing integrated process models that combine landscape 

properties (for example, use, cover, condition) and climate 

with hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and ecosystem 

processes to forecast impacts of future change for specific 

ecosystems across different scales will help identify the vulnerability of key species and ecosystems to changes in climate 

and land use. 

Energy and Mineral Resources.—Energy and mineral 

resources strategies involve profound uses of, and impacts to, 

the land surface. To understand and forecast the changes in the 

landscape that result from energy and mineral resource-related 

activities require close coordination with climate and land-use 

change investigations. Forecasting the impacts of deep waste 

disposal for the geologic sequestration of carbon, investigating 

the land-use legacy of energy development sites, estimating 

the CO2

 footprint of resource extraction, and anticipating landscape changes due to energy and mineral resource development are areas for collaborative research between these two 

mission areas.

Environmental Health.—Climate and land-use change 

affect environmental conditions that determine the distribution of contaminants and pathogens, ecological and human 

exposures, the severity with which they might cause disease, 

and their ultimate fate. These environmental factors include 

changes in distribution of pathogens, their hosts, and vectors caused by changes in habitat; the effects of changes in 

temperature and seasonality on disease processes in fish, 

reptiles, and amphibians; increases in contaminant loads and 

pathogen abundance from changes in the number and severity 

of extreme weather events; and increases in windborne contaminant and pathogen exposure pathways. The varied impacts 

of climate and land-use change also affect the susceptibility 

of aquatic and terrestrial organisms to other environmental 

stresses, making those impacts an essential consideration in 

the multiple stressors that could be affecting environmental 

health. The Environmental Health Science Strategy will be 

coordinated closely with the Climate and Land Use Change 

Science Strategy to ensure that global change factors affecting the environment are considered in environmental health 

assessments as well. The Environmental Health research activities and efforts to establish linkages with the public health 

community will assist assessments, particularly in regard to 

the human health implications of climate and land-use change. 

Natural Hazards.—Climate change can have a direct 

effect on natural hazards, such as increased flooding and 

stronger, more frequent storms. Identifying and predicting how 

changing climates may affect certain hazards and estimating the impacts is a critical part of any adaptation strategy. 

Similarly, land-use change also affects the impact of natural 

hazards and can be the determining factor in whether a natural 

hazard leads to a disaster or not. Understanding the impact 

of climate change on sea-level rise and coastal processes, 

for example, in conjunction with the vulnerability of coastal 

communities and infrastructure to environmental processes 

affected by severe storms and tsunamis, is one area of collaborative research. Hazard events, in turn, also can have an 

impact on climate and land use, such as volcanic ash in the 

atmosphere and sea-level rise. Evaluating the potential contribution of climate and land-use change to hazard exposure, 

vulnerability, and risk will play a central role in linking these 

mission areas.

Water.—A comprehensive understanding of the effects 

of climate variability and land use on water availability at 

multiple spatial and temporal scales is important in the design 

of monitoring strategies for detecting change. Understanding past hydrological responses to climate change can help to 

distinguish between natural and human influences on water 

availability. Predicting future changes in the quantity and 

quality of water resources in response to climate and land-use 

change requires the development and application of models to 

predict the potential effects of changes in population, land use, 

climate, and management practices on future water availability. Scenarios need to be developed to quantify the response 

of the hydrologic system (for example, infiltration, runoff, and 

sediment transport) to land uses such as urbanization, agriculture, grazing, forestry practices, and water-retention projects. 

The new national water census will provide a complete data 

and interpretive framework for assessing potential impacts of 

climate and land-use change; linkages among climate and land 

use and water quality will inform the National Water Quality 

Assessment Program; linking plausible scenarios of water- and 

land-use changes with corresponding climate and socioeconomic scenarios will help to understand the effects of land-use 

and climate changes as they become increasingly significant to 

the Nation’s water resources. Existing and planned monitoring 

networks that address a variety of water resource management needs should be configured to best capture the impacts of 

changing climate and land use.
Communicating Science to Society—Services, Products, and Delivery 35

Communicating Science to Society—Services, Products, and Delivery

Recognition by policymakers, resource managers, and 

the public of the increasing pace and unpredictability of global 

change is generating increased demand for information about 

the nature of impending changes and how to respond to them 

effectively. There is also consensus, within the USGS and 

elsewhere, that the nature of projected future environmental 

change will require expanded and better integrated scientific 

and observational activities and that those adaptation strategies 

will be enhanced by landscape- and regional-level partnerships 

of science and management. 

USGS scientists will meet the needs of our changing 

world by providing timely, scientifically sound, state-ofthe-science information on global change and its effects in 

a variety of formats and venues. USGS science is used by a 

wide range of people and institutions, from highly technical, 

global-scale scientific collaborations to individuals seeking information on river stages for recreational boating. The 

USGS delivers science in multiple forms, which include 

Web-enabled databases, peer-reviewed literature, and technical assistance to resource managers. The portfolio of scientific 

activities described in this strategic plan will complement the 

work of a large array of international, Federal, State, tribal, 

NGO, academic, and private partners. 

Services and Products

Research Results—From Fundamental to 

Applied

USGS global change research consists of investigating 

the fundamental biological, hydrological, geological, chemical, and physical processes that underlie global stressors and 

environmental response. Results of these scientific investigations will serve as the building blocks for additional scientific 

progress and can be applied to a variety of outputs and tools.

1. Research findings: USGS scientists, as active members 

of a global scientific community, will continue to contribute to the growth of scientific knowledge about how the 

Earth system functions. In addition to providing building 

blocks for additional scientific progress, many research 

results are used by managers directly, often with significant assistance, advice, and collaboration from USGS 

scientists. This direct and hands-on interaction is often 

crucial to effective transfer and application of research 

findings.

2. Assessments: Assessments provide scientific synthesis 

and analysis of patterns, trends, pace, and global, national, 

regional, and sectoral issues affecting Earth systems. They 

provide key findings, new understanding, strategies, and 

new or improved methods that can assist and guide policymakers and resource managers in monitoring, mitigation, and adaptation decisions linked to global change and 

in providing information to the public. Assessments by the 

USGS and its partners will use existing and new observations to detect and describe effects of global change on 

natural resources, environmental conditions, and people. 

3. Methods and tools: Standard methods and tested tools 

provided by the USGS further the standard for scientific 

and management knowledge. Among these products are 

dynamic, mechanistic, statistical, conceptual, and other 

types of models that portray how global systems behave 

at multiple temporal and spatial scales; the likelihood and 

consequences of actions, drivers, interrelations, trends, 

and forecasts; and consequences of adaptation and mitigation techniques. Also included are basic research, field 

and laboratory techniques, monitoring-program designs, 

and data-integration methods. 

Modeling and Projection

Understanding how natural systems function and observing their past and present behavior form a powerful intellectual basis for making informed statements about the future. 

USGS scientists develop and participate in a wide range 

of modeling efforts, from projections of flows, particularly 

streams under changed climatic conditions, to tackling crucial 

elements of global models used by the IPCC. 

These models continue to evolve as fundamental knowledge of natural systems grows through expanded research 

and observation and as modeling techniques are refined. The 

USGS will work to enhance and evolve USGS modeling to 

reduce uncertainty through consistent modeling approaches; 

integration and linking hydrologic, geologic, ecologic, and 

land-use projections of change; and expanding access to 

resulting data.

Technical Support

A goal of USGS global change science is to translate and 

deliver scientific results of maximum value to other scientists 

and natural-resource managers. Transferring scientific knowledge for application to real-world problems is facilitated by 

direct interaction among scientists and resource managers or 

decisionmakers. The USGS will continue to strengthen this 

capability by encouraging interaction among individual scientists. USGS programs and stakeholders, including resource 

managers and the public, will use these interactions to develop 

decision-support tools to help communicate with stakeholders within an adaptive management framework. This nexus 

between science and management will ensure that USGS science programs respond to management needs and that resulting science products are accessible, appropriately translated, 

and effectively applied.
36 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Enabling Efficient Transformation of Data to 

Knowledge 

The USGS has a unique legacy as the producer of longterm datasets for multiple uses, many of which are geographically extensive. Complex scientific questions posed by global 

change and its impact on Earth systems require analysis, 

integration, synthesis, and modeling of science data and information from multiple disciplines, locations, and timescales. 

Complex data, models, and other information from a variety 

of sources, in different formats, spatial scales, and resolutions, 

will need to be integrated and made available for policymakers, resource managers and partners, and for public use. A 

comprehensive global change informatics strategy for data and 

infrastructure will enable scientists, partners, and stakeholders 

to create, disseminate, find, access, and use new and existing 

global change data from the USGS and other sources. 

Delivering Science—USGS Framework for 

Collaboration and Communication

The USGS recognizes that if science is to be responsive 

to societal needs, we must communicate effectively with those 

who use the products of our global change science. USGS 

will take advantage of its national presence to expand communication and collaboration. This plan supports a coordinated 

multiagency (Federal, State, tribal, and local) national strategy 

that renews and expands communication and collaboration 

efforts that will integrate climate and land use and efficient use 

of resources.

Collaboration

The USGS has been participating in and collaborating with the international and national scientific community 

to address global change for 20 years and will continue to 

do so. One example of the global change science initiatives 

undertaken within DOI is the establishment of the NCCWSC. 

DOI Secretarial Order No. 3289 issued on September 14, 

2009, lays out a Department-wide plan for “Addressing the 

Impacts of Climate Change on America’s Water, Land, and 

Other Natural and Cultural Resources” (Salazar, 2009). This 

order charged the USGS with leading the establishment of 

eight DOI regional Climate Science Centers as primary components of the DOI climate-change response strategy. DOI’s 

regional Climate Science Centers and the NCCWSC are essential vehicles for implementing this USGS Science Strategy as 

well as achieving many of the specific goals contained in the 

DOI Strategic Plan.

The USGS NCCWSC, in collaboration with the Climate 

Science Centers, DOI Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, 

and NGOs, is jointly designing and implementing research and 

monitoring activities and technical support and translation of 

research results for application in a management context and 

in a manner that directly supports the management needs of 

partners and advances societal understanding and adaptation to 

global change. The NCCWSC is a strategic source for USGS 

Global Change collaboration and communication efforts, 

engaging partners at the national, State, regional, and local 

levels. 

1. National: The framework for collaboration among U.S. 

Federal agencies is the U.S. Global Change Research 

Program (USGCRP). The USGCRP Office and its interagency working groups (IWGs) each provide vehicles for 

communicating and promulgating USGCRP science. The 

USGS maintains its involvement and representation on 

these IWGs as an effective way to integrate USGS science 

and science planning with others, to ensure that high-priority issues for the USGS and its partners are reflected in 

the national agenda for adaptation science, and to increase 

visibility for USGS science.

2. Regional: The USGS recognizes that increased collaboration at landscape and regional scales is needed to 

address global change. The USGS has established eight 

regional Climate Science Centers as part of a larger DOIwide climate partnership initiative that also includes the 

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, which function 

as management science interfaces involving State and 

Federal partners. 

3. State and local: States are partners in the full range of 

USGS scientific products, and demand for these products 

is increasing as States expand their efforts to adapt to a 

variety of land and ecosystem changes. States have major 

management responsibilities that will be affected by 

global change, and they devote significant management 

and science resources to these issues. Local governments, 

tribes, and private resource managers also are expanding 

their efforts to address these changes and, in doing so, are 

looking to the USGS for critical information. Interactions 

with these partners involve identifying management concerns, jointly designing and implementing research and 

monitoring activities, and providing technical support and 

translation of research results for application in a management context.
Highlight

National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Climate Science Center (CSC) lead institution

CSC institution

Alaska CSC

1. University of Alaska–Fairbanks

2. University of Alaska–Anchorage

Pacific Islands CSC

3. University of Hawai`i at Manoa

4. University of Hawai`i at Hilo

5. University of Guam

Northwest CSC

6. Oregon State University

7. University of Idaho

8. University of Washington

South-central CSC

23. University of Oklahoma

24. Texas Tech University

25. Oklahoma State University

26. Chickasaw Nation

27. Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma

28. Louisiana State University

29. National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

 Administration Geophysical Fluid 

 Dynamics Laboratory

Northeast CSC

30. University of Massachusetts–Amherst

31. University of Minnesota

32. College of Menominee Nation

33. University of Wisconsin–Madison

34. University of Missouri–Columbia

35. Columbia University

36. Marine Biological Laboratory

Southeast CSC

37. North Carolina State University

EXPLANATION

Base from Esri, 2009, Albers Equal-Area Conic projection, North American Datum of 1983

Southwest CSC

9. University of Arizona

10. Desert Research Institute (Nevada)

11. University of California–Davis

12. University of California–Los Angeles

13. Scripps Institute of Oceanography

14. University of Colorado

North-central CSC

14. University of Colorado

15. Colorado State University

16. Colorado School of Mines

17. Iowa State University

18. Kansas State University

19. Montana State University

20. University of Montana

21. University of Nebraska–Nebraska

22. University of Wyoming

Communicating Science to Society—Services, Products, and Delivery 37

The USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science 

Center (NCCWSC), based in Reston, Virginia, has played a 

leadership role in establishing DOI’s eight regional Climate 

Science Centers (CSCs). The CSCs will leverage USGS and 

other Federal scientific capabilities and new universitybased capabilities and link directly to DOI Landscape 

Conservation Cooperatives as well as many other public 

and private resource managers and scientists. The CSCs 

will produce partner-driven science that improves understanding of a wide variety of global changes and that 

assists managers in adapting to these changes. CSCs and 

NCCWSC will accomplish the following activities:

• Work with management partners to identify and 

prioritize science needs,

• Develop relevant climate and land-use forecasts,

• Improve understanding of the effects of likely global 

changes on valued natural and cultural resources, 

and

• Identify lands, resources, and communities that are 

most vulnerable to adverse impacts of change.
38 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

Communication

Good communication is critical to enhancing productivity, coordination, and effective planning in any shared 

endeavor. Improved internal communication was cited as a 

high priority by USGS scientists at 2006 and 2010 USGS 

Global Change Science Workshops. Providing opportunities for linking our scientists and keeping them apprised of 

program developments, opportunities, and science planning 

also were cited as needs by field scientists and by participants 

from USGS regional offices and other DOI bureau representatives at both workshops. Improving internal communications 

should be a top priority for global change activities in FY2013 

and beyond.

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of the 

scientific products that USGS scientists produce to describe 

and understand the world we live in. Communicating the 

nature and impacts of uncertainty presents substantial challenges for USGS scientists. A misunderstanding about the 

meaning of scientific uncertainty may inhibit or even distort 

decisionmaking critical for mitigating or adapting to climateassociated risks. Developing and implementing a strategy to 

improve understanding and use of climate-related predictions, 

particularly pertaining to risks, vulnerabilities, and proposed 

mitigation/adaptation activities, should be a priority for USGS 

science.

The following actions can be initiated to promote sustained communication of its global change science:

• Regular national USGS global change research 

workshops to integrate efforts and information flow 

throughout the Bureau.

• Internal self-subscribed mailing lists and Web sites at 

the level of major global change programs, for each of 

the seven science goals (discussed in the Science Goals 

and Objectives Section), and for each of the USGCRP 

IWGs, as well as at the broad disciplinary and interdisciplinary collaborative levels.

• An integrated global change information gateway 

with both internal and external components for collaboration and seamless access to projects, resulting 

data, models, information, decision-support tools, 

and derived products that highlight services of global 

change research and increase its visibility, effectiveness, and transparency. In addition to improving 

internal communications, this Science Strategy Planning Team recommends improving external communications through the USGS Global Change Web site. 

As part of the home page, in coordination with other 

Federal agencies, the USGS could develop a public 

outreach initiative specifically to translate and communicate complexities of global change research in a 

clear and consistent manner to the American public to 

highlight implications of this research to human and 

ecological landscapes. Success of such an initiative 

would improve the public’s understanding of global 

change research findings. The USGS Office of Communications and Publishing should continue to support 

the program through its contacts with the news media, 

press releases, social media, public presentations, and 

Congressional hearings and presentations.

• A small committee of USGS scientists and communications experts could be formed to develop an internal 

and external communications strategy. This group 

could provide advice concerning the USGS Climate 

and Land Use Change Web site and consider the 

initiative concept above. The team also could identify 

actions that would improve communications about 

program developments among USGS managers and 

scientists, such as internal newsletters or Intranet postings, periodic workshops for scientists, and Webinars.

Periodic national USGS global change research workshops will 

integrate efforts and information flow throughout the Bureau.
Summary—Understanding and Responding to Climate and Land-Use Change 39

Summary—Understanding and Responding to Climate and Land-Use Change

Natural processes, in combination with the effects of 

human actions, can result in global changes with substantial 

potential consequences for the natural world and society. 

Uncertainty about these changes and their consequences limits 

the Nation’s ability to respond appropriately, and policymakers, resource managers, and the public are increasingly 

demanding more and better information to support mitigation 

and adaptation efforts. As the only integrated natural-resources 

research organization in the Federal Government, the USGS 

plays a critical role in providing the global change information that will help the economy, the environment, and human 

communities remain strong. By achieving the visions and 

goals presented in this science strategy, the USGS can become 

the Nation’s leader and gateway for accessing information and 

understanding past, present, and future effects of climate and 

land-use change on natural resources and human communities. USGS global change research will help policymakers 

and resource managers make difficult decisions regarding 

the management and stewardship of lands, resources, and 

communities. This strategy emphasizes the importance of a 

coordinated intra- and multiagency (Federal, State, and local) 

national strategy that renews and expands communication and 

collaboration efforts with stakeholders and partners.

When implemented, this plan will accomplish the 

following:

1. Build on USGS leadership in global change investigations.

2. Fill knowledge gaps of how the natural and human-altered 

world is changing.

3. Extend strategic partnerships.

4. Improve communication and collaboration.

5. Ensure a sustained observational effort.

6. Address topics critical for managing natural resources and 

the environment, with tangible effects on environmental 

goods, services, and risks.

7. Use USGS core capacity, disciplinary strengths, integrative capacities, and long-term databases.

8. Invest in comprehensive, integrated observation and 

monitoring to understand local to global change processes 

and conditions.

View of calving glacier, Prince William Sound, Alaska, 

August 22, 2008. Photograph by Don Becker, USGS.
40 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

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42 Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy—A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change

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Glossary 43

Glossary of Terms

adaptation in climate-change discussions, 

refers to adjustments in natural or human 

systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates 

harmful effects or exploits potential benefits. 

albedo the fraction of incoming solar radiation that is reflected by a surface or an object.

carbon cycle a term used to describe the 

flow of carbon (in various forms, for example, 

carbon dioxide) through the atmosphere, 

ocean, terrestrial biosphere, and lithosphere.

cation an ion or group of ions with a positive charge.

climate change any change in climate over 

time, whether due to natural variability or as a 

result of human activity.

climate-change impacts effects of climate 

changes such as temperature change, precipitation change, changes in severe weather patterns, and sea-level rise on human and natural 

systems.

climate variability variations in the mean 

state and other statistics (such as standard 

deviation) of a climate variable on a temporal 

or spatial scale.

climate model numerical representation of 

the climate system that is based on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of its 

components and their interactions. 

detection and attribution in the context of 

climate change, this refers to the detection of 

change in a system and the attribution of that 

change to natural causes or anthropogenic 

climate change. 

eustatic denoting or referring to a worldwide change in sea level. 

global change large-scale changes in the 

environment that may alter the Earth’s capacity to sustain life and human endeavor. 

greenhouse gas gaseous constituents of the 

atmosphere that absorb and reflect thermal 

infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, clouds, and the atmosphere itself. 

mitigation actions taken to reduce the 

anthropogenic forcing of the climate system, 

generally in the form of reducing emissions 

of greenhouse gases or enhancing greenhouse 

gas sinks.

paleoclimate climatic conditions in the geologic past. These conditions are reconstructed 

based on evidence found in the geologic 

record, generally in the form of glacial deposits, fossils, sediments, and rock and ice cores. 

phenology refers to recurring plant and 

animal life-cycle stages, such as leafing and 

flowering, maturation of agricultural plants, 

emergence of insects, and migration of birds. 

proxy an indicator that is interpreted to represent conditions back in time. Examples of 

proxies are pollen records and tree rings that 

are analyzed to determine temperature in the 

absence of an instrumental record. 

scenario a plausible description, story line 

or image of how the future may develop.

sea-level rise an increase in the mean level 

of the ocean. Relative sea-level rise occurs 

where there is a local increase in the level of 

the ocean relative to the land, which might be 

due to ocean rise and land-level subsidence. 

sensitivity the degree to which a system is 

affected by a change in a condition that alters 

the structure or function of the system.

stakeholders individuals, groups, and 

institutions with a stake in the outcome of a 

decisionmaking process.

steric relating to the spatial arrangement of 

atoms in a molecule; when referring to sealevel rise, the term refers to the increase in sea 

level associated with the thermal expansion of 

seawater.

volatization The vaporization or conversion of a chemical substance from a liquid or 

solid state to a gaseous or vapor state by the 

application of heat, by reducing pressure, or 

by a combination of these processes. 

vulnerability the degree to which a system is 

susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse 

effects of climate change, including climate 

variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a 

function of the character, magnitude, and 

rate of climate variation to which a system 

is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive 

capacity.

zoonotic pertaining to a zoonosis, which 

is a disease caused by infectious agents that 

can be transmitted between (or are shared by) 

animals and humans.
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