United States 

Department of 

Agriculture The Economic Importance of 

Forest Service Vermont's Sawtimber 

Northeastern Forest 

Experiment Station 

NE-RP-587 Joseph .A. Michaels M. Brian Stone 

Paul E. Sendah 
The Authors 

Joseph A. Michaels received his B.S. degree from Rutgers University and a M.S. 

degree in forest economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute. After 12 years of 

experience on five National Forests in Region 9, he joined the Planning Assistance 

Staff, Northeastern Area, State and Private Forestry, in 1980. He joined the Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis Unit, on a parttime basis in 1983 with responsibilities in the Vermont inventory analysis. He is 

currently a member of the Forest Management and Utilization Staff, Northeastern 

Area, Durham, New Hampshire. 

M. Brian Stone received his B.S. degree from the University of New Hampshire in 

1964. He has served in various capacities as a forester with the Vermont Department of Forests, Parks, and Recreation, including County Forester. He is currently 

Chief of Forest Management and is responsible for cooperative forestry programs 

and state liaison for the forest survey. 

Paul E. Sendak is a forest economist and Project Leader engaged in maple marketing and wood energy economics research at the George D. Aiken Sugar Maple 

Laboratory, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, Burlington, Vermont. He received his B.S. degree in forestry from Rutgers University, and his M.S. degree in 

forestry and Ph.D. degree in forest economics from the University of Massachusetts. He began his career with the Forest Service in 1969. - - 

Manuscript received for publication 12 December 1985 

-- 

Abstract 

This paper concentrates on the potential economic importance of Vermont's sawtimber. The timber industry employed over 9,000 workers in 1980, and the value of 

stumpage cut that year was worth approximately $459 million to the State's economy. Preliminary resurvey data indicate that sawtimber inventory now exceeds 

14 billion board feet. Yet, sawtimber removals have averaged only 200 million 

board feet per year over the last 10 years. We used an input-output model called 

IMPLAN V1 .I to predict socio-economic impacts of several sawtimber production 

levels. The results indicate that improved markets for the existing resource could 

significantly contribute to the State's economy. If 50 percent of the projected annual growth could be marketed, an additional $152 million contribution could be 

made to the State's gross product and over 9,000 new jobs created. 

Northeastern Forest Experiment Station 

370 Reed Road, Broomall, PA 19008 

July 1986 
, Introduction 

The importance of forest resources in the State's economic 

base has long been recognized (Bonyai and Sendak 1982, 

Healy 1984, Kingsley 1977). Quantitatively estimating forest 

resource values, however, continues to be a challenge. 

Three recent and related projects that were analyzed for 

issues related to the economic importance of the State's forest resources were: (1) The Fourth Comprehensive Forest 

Inventory of the State (1983); (2) A Study of Alternative 

Futures for Vermont (1982); and (3) A State Forest Resources Planning Project (1 980-85). 

Forest surveys by the USDA Forest Service have been conducted in 1948, 1966, 1973, and 1983. From findings of 

the 1983 resurvey, the following information is pertinent to 

the wood fiber supply (Frieswyk and Malley 1985): 

0 Seventy-five percent of the State's land area is 

classified as timberland. 

I 0 Northern hardwoods type group make up 61 percent 

of all timberland. 

Volume of growing stock increased by 25 percent 

I since the last survey (1973) with sawtimber volumes 

I rising by 22 percent. 

The area of the sawtimber stand-size class increased 

by 45 percent since the last inventory. 

Sawtimber volumes on timberland averaged 3,163 

board feet per acre; an increase of 22 percent since 

the last inventory. 

I Sawtimber inventory increased to 14 billion board feet 

~ compared to less than 11.5 billion in 1973. 

However, annual sawtimber removals continued to 

average about 200 million board feet since 1973. 

In January 1984, representatives of the forestry community 

were asked by the State Forester to set priorities on how the 

resurvey data should be analyzed. An analysis of the economic importance of forestry and forest-related industries 

was the top concern of the respondents. 

I The Vermont Futures Project of June 1982 also involved a I cross-section of the State's forestry community.' These 

representatives assessed the current resource situation and 

proposed future goals (2030) for various forest resources. 

Some of the wood fiber goals are depicted in Table 1. I 

I 

, These goals, reached by concensus among resource experts, are based on biological supply relationships. The 

experts assumed that demand for the increased product flow 

from the forest will materialize through increased demand 

Table 1 .-Wood fiber goals proposed by the Vermont 

Futures Project 

Item As of 1980 Desired for 2030 

Percent Percent 

Volume of annual 

growth harvested 

Cut and removed 16 

Cut and left 24 

Uncut 60 

Cut as percentage 

of current annual 

growth, by owner 

class 

Statelmunicipal 73 Slight increase 

Federal 79 Slight increase 

Industry 90 Same 

Other private 25 Major increase 

Wood uses 

Pulp 

Fuelwood 

21 Decrease 

43 Major increase 

Sainnimber 35 Increase 

Source: lnstitute for Alternative Futures. Alternative futures for 

Vermont-a strategic workbook for forests, parks, and recreation. 

Montpelier, VT: Vermont Agency of Environmental Conservation, 

Division of Planning and Department of Forests, Parks, and 

Recreation; in cooperation with: Rutland, VT: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Green Mountain National Forest. 

Alexandria, VA: lnstitute for Alternative Futures; 1982. 114 pd 

for the goods that require Vermont wood in their manufacture. Will such an increase in demand come about? The 

answer partly resides in the market place; it is beyond the 

scope of this analysis. 

The latest effort in state forest resources planning began 

around 1980. A draft State Forest Resources Plan was out 

for pwblic review in mid-1985. Extensive public participation 

identified major forest resource issues. The following strategies Were recommended (O'Dell 1982) for Issue A, "Opportunities for timber, fuel, and fiber production." 

7 Explore new markets for highquality, short pieces of 

i hardwood lumber. 

'Institute for Alternative Futures. Alternative futures for 

Vermont-a strategic workbook for forests, parks, and recreation. Montpelier, VT: Vermont Agency of Environmental 

Conservation, Division of Planning and Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation; in cooperation with: Rutland, 

VT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Green 

Mountain National Forest. Alexandria, VA: Institute for Alternative Futures; 1982. 1 14 p. 
a Promote products produced by Vermont's wood-using 

industry. 

Explore potential export markets and inform local 

manufacturers of possibilities. 

Encourage management for high-quality sawlogs. 

Initiate special programs to increase management for 

the regeneration, growth, and supply of white pine. 

Publish forest product market information. 

Support a timber commodities market. 

Finally, a joint federal-state program review for forestry planning recommended that the socio-economic importance of 

selected forest resources should be determined using resurvey data trends, published economic reports, and final 

plan direction.' 

Scope and Objectives 

Our analysis focuses on sawtimber production for a variety 

of reasons. Vermont has a significant sawmill industry that is 

supplied largely from its own forest resource. Although much 

pulpwood is cut in the State, most notably in the northeastern counties, almost all of it is exported to other states. 

Therefore, the value added from pulpwood is considerably 

less than that from sawlogs. Other forest values--water, 

recreation, wildlife, esthetics-are not addressed in this 

analysis, though they clearly have a significant impact on 

Vermont's economy (Kingsley 1977). 

Although the use of low-quality wood for fuel both as solid 

wood-primarily for home heating-and wood chips-primarily for electrical generation and cogeneration and for 

process steam-is on the rise, the model we used for the 

analysis was incapable of incorporating this relatively new 

demand. Similarly, reconstituted wood products such as 

waferboard and oriented strand board are likely to create 

new markets in the future for low-quality wood in Vermont. 

The model was incapable of anticipating when this demand 

would occur or how it will affect the economy. 

The specific objectives of our analysis were to: (1) determine 

the potential economic impacts and relative importance of 

sawtimber to Vermont's economy, and (2) measure potential 

impacts to the year 1995 under various sawtimber production alternatives. 

2Michaels, Joseph A.; Motyka, Conrad M. Vermont cooperative program review-planning assistance program. 

Broomall, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Area State and Private Forestry; 1984. 13 

p. Unpublished report. 

Overview of Vermont's Timber Economy 

Current Economic Significance 

According to Bonyai and Sendak (1982), timber industry 

employed more than 9,000 workers in 1980 and paid about 

$1 10 million in gross wages. This employment figure represented nearly 5 percent of all workers in the State and 18 

percent of all those employed in manufacturing. The estimated value of stumpage cut that year was $9.2 million 

which in turn was worth approximately $459 million to the 

State's economy after secondary and tertiary impacts. The 

lumber and wood products industry had 333 establishments. 

Sawmills consumed about 21 1 million board feet of timber 

in 1980. The state is a net exporter of softwood sawlogs and 

a net importer of sawlogs overall. Overseas exports accounted for only 3 percent of all wood product shipments. 

Healy (1 984) says that between 1970-80: 

The largest increase of employed persons in forest 

product related occupations was in timber cutting and 

logging--744 more people than in 1970 or a 140 

percent increase. 

Nationally, forest product related occupations grew by 

only 9 percent compared to Vermont's 66 percent 

growth. For every person directly engaged in a forest 

product related job activity, there were 1.3 additional 

workers doing nondirect forest related work. 

Employment in forest product related industries 

expanded by 33 percent. 

Sawtimber Resource Trends 

Since World War II sawtimber removals hit a high of 273 

million board feet in 1951 and a low of 127 million in 1971. 

Hardwood-softwood mix by volume is 65-35 percent. About 

90 percent of the commercial forest land is currently in private ownership. Average removal over the last 10 years 

(1 974-83) was 198 million board feet (Gove 1983). Resurvey 

data (Frieswyk and Malley 1985) indicate that sawtimber 

inventory has risen from 6.5 billion board feet in 1966 to 

nearly 14 billion in 1983--a 115 percent increase. Average 

annual net growth, gross growth minus mortality and cull 

increment, for sawtimber was only 175 million board feet in 

1966; rose to 262 million by 1972, and was approaching 500 

million board feet in 1983. Average annual net growth exceeds removals by more than 100 percent. Figure 1 shows 

the relationship between inventory, growth, and removals. 

Projection estimates are based on extrapolated resurvey 

data. 
I 103 I I I I 1966 1972 1977 1982 1995 

YEAR 

Figure I .-Sawtimber inventory, average annual net growth 

(Frieswyk and Malley l985), and removals (Gove l983), I 1966-95. 

Marketing Opportunities and Constraints 

Despite the rising inventory and widening gap between 

growth and removals, Vermont remains a net importer of 

sawlogs. Part of this imbalance is due to mills located on or 

near the State border that get their supply from neighboring 

states such as New York, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Only 3 percent of the 200 million board feet currently 

being harvested is reaching foreign export markets (Bonyai 

and Sendak 1982). One of the reasons for this small export 

ratio is the relatively poor quality of the sawtimber. Grade 

1 logs accounted for only 1 percent of the pine and 9 percent of the hardwood sawtimber in 1972. 1983 data indicate 

an increase to 5 percent for pine and I1 percent for hardwood. As the sawtimber in the smaller size classes grows 

into larger size classes, the percentage of grade 1 sawlogs 

will increase, improving marketability. 

Several other probable factors constrain sawtimber harvest 

including lack of owner awareness on nonindustrial private 

holdings, increasing numbers of absentee owners, and constrained timber sale preparation budgets on some public 

lands. 

Estimating Economic Potentials 

Input-output (1-0) models have traditionally been used to 

characterize a developed economy. Vermont's economy can 

be described through an analysis of the interdependence 

among producing sectors. Each sector not only produces 

goods or services but also is a consumer, purchasing other 

goods and services for use in its production process. These 

I relationships among industry inputs and outputs were developed into a general theory of production by Wassily Leontief 

in the 1930's. Leontief's original Input-Output Table of the 

United States showed how each sector of the economy 

depended on every other sector (Leontief 1951). 

Input-Output tables for the U.S. economy are periodically 

prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, using data directly obtained from reporting industries. The Bureau does not prepare regional or 

state Input-Output tables. Regional or state models are generally constructed either by directly surveying all the industries in the study area ("survey-based") or by methods that 

modify the national model ("nonsurvey-based). Surveybased models are generally viewed as superior to nonsurvey tables because they are more accurate for the region 

of interest. But, they are also more expensive and require 

substantial lead time to develop the survey, conduct it, and 

then compile the table. By contrast, nonsurvey models rely 

on a variety of economic statistics gathered by public agencies and private firms. Individual regional or state models 

are then estimated using average inter-industry production 

relationships, regional activity levels, and regional trade 

balances that define the trade relationships between the region and the rest of the world. 

Several assumptions are inherent in an 1-0 model analysis 

(Convery 1977). Some of the major ones are: 

Inputs are used by industries in fixed proportions. 

0 All inputs are assumed to be available as expansion 

in production occurs. 

0 The accounting period is 1 year. 

0 Each industry has a single product output. 

The 1-0 model is therefore classified as a static model. That 

is, it paints a picture of the economy at the instant in time for 

which the data were collected. However, 1-0 is used as a 

planning tool to study, for example, impacts on the economy 

caused by changing production over time from an industryin essence, studying a dynamic process with a static model. 

This can be a problem as new industries emerge, old ones 

fail, and technology generally advances changing factor 

proportions. 

This problem is evident in this analysis. The "new" industry 

of fuelwood production is not represented in the model so 

we cannot study its impact on the economy. Similarly, we 

anticipate that reconstituted board products will emerge as 

an important wood-using industry in Vermont in the near 

future. It too is not in the model and future impacts cannot 

be analyzed. 

Nevertheless, the sawtimber-using industries are a part of 

the model. We do not anticipate that they will decrease in 
significance over the future we are analyzing (to 1995). And, 

we expect that the factor proportions will remain roughly 

fixed for these industries over the period of analysis. 

IMPLAN V1 .I is an 1-0 Model with predictive capabilities 

(Alward and Palmer 1983). It was selected as the primary 

economic tool for the sawtimber analysis. 

IMPLAN V1 .I data base consists of two major parts: (1) a 

national-level technology matrix that indicates the proportion 

of inputs needed to produce outputs, and (2) estimates of 

sectoral activity for final demand, final payments, gross outputs, and employment for each county in the nation. The 

466 Sector National Technology Matrix, which is used to estimate local purchases and sales, was derived from the 

Department of Commerce's 1972 national input-output table 

updated to 1977. The USDA Forest Service has announced 

that a revised software system will be available in late 1985 

(IMPLAN V2.0), and the fully revised system with data base 

updated to 1982 will be operational in early 1986 (USDA 

Forest Service 1984). 

Despite the built-in limitations inherent in any 1-0 Model and 

the 1977 data base for the IMPLAN V1.l System, IMPLAN 

V1.l was selected as the analysis tool because for many 

purposes it predicts reasonably well, and it is inexpensive to 

use. 

These components of IMPLAN V1 .I were used in the Vermont Sawtimber Analysis: 

REGION-Enables the user to develop a set of border 

totals (final demand, final payments, total gross outputs, and 

employment) for the impact area being studied. In this analysis, it was the 14-county area of Vermont. 

SCALE-Utilizes the national technical coefficients and 

the regional border totals to estimate a set of regional purchase coefficients. Prepares a balanced set of regional 

accounts including competitive and non-competitive imports, 

as well as domestic exports. 

SMASH-Enables the user to aggregate the 466 industry sectors to concentrate the analysis on the sectors of 

special interest. In this analysis, three sectors were important to sawtimber production: Sawmills and planing mills, 

veneer and plywood, and household furniture. 

INVERT--Converts the regional set of accounts constructed using SCALE or SMASH to a predictive model by 

calculating the Leontief inverse for the open (without households endogenous) and closed (with households endogenous) models. 

IMPACT-Enables analyst to manipulate economic 

vectors for final demand, and total gross output to calculate 

economic impacts for employment, income and changes 

in population. 

Sawtimber Alternatives 

Sawtimber alternatives were based on the following question: If markets were expanded to accommodate increased 

sawtimber production, what would be the economic impacts 

on Vermont's economy? 

Data used and assumptions made include: 

1. Timber mix was 70 percent hardwood and 30 percent 

softwood. 

2. Unit of production used was millions of board feet 

(MMbf). 

3. Timber production was assumed to impact mainly three 

sectors: SIC (Standard Industrial Classification) 137 Sawmills and Planing Mills; SIC 142 Veneer and Plywood; 

SIC 150 Household Furniture. Further analysis down the 

chain of production was not realistic, since the sources of 

supply could not be distinguished. 

4. The timber share assigned to these sectors was 50 percent SIC 137, 10 percent SIC 142, and 40 percent SIC 

150. 

5. Value per unit in 1977 dollars of finished product assigned to each sector was: $175 per Mbf for sawmills 

and planing mills, $545 per Mbf for veneer and plywood, 

and $1,000 per Mbf for household furniture. 

6. All production changes were assumed to take place by 

the end of 1995. 

Four sawtimber production change alternatives were analyzed: 

Alternative 1-Impact of 175 MMbf production level 

based on the 1982 output (current or base). 

Alternative 2-Impact of a 20 percent increase in production based on improved markets. Production would 

increase to 210 MMbf per year. 

Alternative 3-Impact of a 20 percent decrease in production. Production would drop to 140 MMbf per year. 

Alternative 4--Impact of being able to market 50 percent of the projected growth to 1995. Projected net 

annual growth (see figure 1) is estimated to be 775 

MMbf. The new production level target would be 388 

MMbf per year. 

See Table 2 for the alternative data used in the IMPLAN run. 
Table 2.-Alternative data for IMPLAN V1 .I 

Sector Cost Production 

Alternative impacted per Mbf level assigned 

Dollars MMbf 

1 137 175 88 

(1 75) 142 545 18 

MMbf 150 1,000 69 

2 137 175 105 

(21 0) 142 545 21 

MMbf 150 1,000 84 

3 137 175 70 

(1 40) 142 545 14 

MMbf 150 1,000 56 

4 137 175 194 

(388) 142 545 39 

MMbf 150 1,000 155 

Projected Economic Impacts 

Table 3 summarizes potential economic impacts resulting 

from IMPLAN V1 .I runs. Table 3 is not a replication of the 

IMPLAN V1.l output, but rather an interpretation of the results. For instance, the IMPLAN V1 .I impact report projects 

changes in value added. The sum of value added is used as 

Table 3--Alternative impacts 

an approximation of gross state product (GSP)-the total 

value of all goods and services produced in a year. Copies 

of the total change impact reports can be found in the Appendix. 

These data represent estimates based on 1977 transaction 

coefficients. The relative differences between alternatives 

probably have more validity than the actual numbers. IMPLAN V1.l impacts are categorized as direct (affecting only 

the sectors with the production change), indirect (impacts 

on support industries such as services and retail trade), and 

induced (an effect on the household sector as a consequence of the increased production from the direct and indirect effects). Data in Table 3 represent total impact or the 

sum of direct, indirect, and induced. Finally, "jobs" are cornprised of a mix of full-time and part-time employment. 

Findings and Conclusions 

Although Vermont has an inventory of 14 billion board feet 

of sawtimber, only a small fraction of it is being marketed. 

Removals have averaged only 200 MMbf per year over the 

last 10 years-less than half of the average net annual 

growth. Quality is a problem but is improving as small sawtimber grows into the larger size classes. 

Vermont Future's work has encouraged the forestry community to: 

Net increase GSP 

Net increase or decrease in percent Percent Jobs, percent Jobs, percent Additional 

Contribution or decrease 'Number number of jobs of total change of GSP of total change from people 

Alternatives to GSPa from base of jobs from base economy from base economy base affectedb 

Millions of dollars - (1.6) A - Base year ( 45)" - ( 3,494) A ( 2.0) - P.31 A A 

(1 977) [I 23Id - [ 7,4291 - (175 MMbf) [ 5'" (+0.4) (1.9) (+ 0.3) ( 1,621) 

+ 20 percent ( 54) (+ 9) ( 4,2311 (+ 737) ( 2.4) [+ 1 .l] [4.01 [+ 0.71 [3,4341 

(210) 11 491 [+ 261 [ 8,9901 [+ 1,5611 [ 6.51 (-0,4) (1.3) (-0.3) ( 1,481) - 20 percent ( 36) (- 9) (2,821) (- 673) (1.6) [-1.11 [ 3,1591 

(1 40) [ 991 [- 241 [ 5,9931 [- 1,4361 [ 4.31 P.71 [-0.61 

50 percent 

potential ( 99) (+ 54) ( 7,812) (+ 4,318) ( 4.3) ( + 2.3) (3.5) (+1.9) ( 9,500) 

(388) [275] [+ 1521 [16,600] [+ 9,1711 [12.0] [+ 6.61 v.51 [+4.2] [20,176] 

Total 

economy 

1977 2,289 222,087 

"Gross state product-value of all goods and services produced in one year. 

bBased on an average of 2.2 people supported by each new job. (Population to jobs ratio.) 

'Numbers in parentheses represent data for sectors 137, 142, and 150 only. 

dNumbers in brackets represent data for all 466 sectors. 
lncrease the volume of annual growth harvested 

significantly (from current 16 percent to 47 percent). 

-More than 9,000 new jobs. 

lncrease harvesting on nonindustrial private land. 

lncrease fuelwood and sawtimber production at the 

expense of pulpwood. 

The statewide forest resource plan will place much emphasis on strategies for marketing development and increasing 

exports. 

The existing timber resource as assessed from the recent 

resurvey, the desired future for that resource, and planned 

strategies for realizing that future give Vermont the potential 

to realize some important economic development from its 

sawtimber supply. Highlights from the IMPLAN analysis 

indicate that: 

For every additional 1 MMbf of sawtimber marketed, 

another 42 jobs can be supported . . . 17 within the 

three sectors directly affected and another 25 jobs in 

sectors incurring indirect and induced changes. 

The supporting sectors that would benefit most from 

increased sawtimber production are: retail trade (SIC 

433), wholesale trade (SIC 432), and professional 

and personal services (SIC 440). 

A marketing effort that could increase sawtimber 

production by 20 percent would mean an additional 

$26 million to the State's economy. Over 700 new 

jobs would be created in the sawlog portion of the 

State's timber industry and a total of 1,561 jobs 

throughout Vermont's economy. Sawtimber's 

contribution to the gross state product would exceed 

6.5 percent. Nearly 3,500 people would be supported 

by these new employment opportunities based on 

the current population to job ratio. 

Approximately 9 new mills would be needed to 

process the additional sawtimber output. 

Failure to improve markets and/or increase out-ofstate shipments could mean the loss of $24 million 

and 1,400 jobs. More than 3,000 people could be 

adversely impacted. 

On the other hand, if a vigorous marketing effort was 

able to capture 50 percent of the projected (1995) 

annual growth, some very significant socio-economic 

impacts could be realized: 

--$I52 million increased contribution to Vermont's 

gross state product. 

-More than 20,000 people supported by new 

employment opportunities. 

-More than 50 new mills would be needed to 

process the additional sawtimber output. 

Vermont has an opportunity to help create its desired future 

for sawtimber production through successful implementation 

of its statewide plan-and make some significant contributions to its economic base. 

Literature Cited 

Alward, Gregory S.; Palmer, Charles J. IMPLAN: an inputoutput analysis system for Forest Service Planning. 

Ft. Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Systems Applications Unit, Land Management 

Planning; 1983. 9 p. 

Bonyai, Susan A.; Sendak, Paul E. Vermont's timber economy: a review of the statistics. Burlington, VT: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern 

Forest Experiment Station; in cooperation with: Montpelier, 

VT: Agency of Environmental Conservation, Department 

of Forests, Parks, and Recreation; 1982. 27 p. 

Convery, Frank J. Applications of economics in national 

forest planning. Atlanta, GA: US. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Region; 1977. 182 p. 

Frieswyk, Thomas S.; Malley, Anne M. Forest statistics for 

Vermont-1973 and 1983. Resour. Bull. NE-$7. Broomall, 

PA: US. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station; 1985. 102' p. 

Gove, William G., comp. Highlights of 1983 Vermont forest resource cut report. Montpelier, VT: Department 

of Forests, Parks, and Recreation, Agency of Environmental Conservation; 1983. 6 p. 

Healy, David J. Vermont's economy: detailed characteristics of the forest products-related economy. Montpelier, VT: Vermont State Planning Office, Study Paper 

Series; 1984. 8 p. 

Kingsley, Neal P. The forest resources of Vermont. Resour. Bull. NE-46. Broomall, PA: US. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment 

Station; 1977. 58 p. 

Leontief, Wassily W. The structure of American economy, 

1919-1939; an empirical application of equilibrium 

analysis. 2d ed. New York: Oxford University Press; 

1951. 264 p. 
O'Dell, Ann M. H. comp., ed. Vermont forest resourcesplan-Part 1: Issues Report. Montpelier, VT: Vermont 

Agency of Environmental Conservation, Department of 

Forests, Parks, and Recreation; 1982. 82 p. 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. IMPLAN 

briefing document. Ft. Collins, CO: US. Department of 

Agriculture, Systems Applications Unit, Land Management 

Planning; 1984. 5 p. 

Appendix 

Definition of Terms 

Average annual net growth. The change, resulting from 

natural causes, in growing-stock or sawtimber volume of 

sound wood in growing-stock or sawtimber trees during the 

period between surveys, divided by the length of the period. 

Components of average annual net growth include the increment in net volume of trees that are present at the beginning 

of the period and that survive to the end (accretion), plus 

average annual ingrowth, minus average annual mortality, 

and minus the net volume of trees that became rough or 

rotten during the period (cull increment). 

Average annual removals. The net growing-stock or sawtimber volume of trees harvested or killed in logging, cultural 

operations-such as timber stand improvement-or land 

clearing, and also the net growing-stock or sawtimber volume of trees neither harvested nor killed but growing on 

land that was reclassified from commercial forest land to 

noncommercial forest land during the period between surveys. This volume is divided by the length of the period. 

Board foot. A unit of lumber measurement 1 foot long, 1 

foot wide, and 1 inch thick, or its equivalent. 

Domestic final demand. The sum of all purchases for consumption by consumers both inside and purchases for consumption and use in production by consumers and industries 

outside the region but inside the United States. Domestic 

final demand includes the sum of personal consumption 

expenditures, capital formation, inventory change, state and 

local government expenditures, federal government expenditures, and domestic exports. 

Employee compensation. Wages and salaries (including 

benefits) paid to employees by the firms within each sector. 

Grade 1 log. A tree generally 14 inches or larger in diameter at breast height, at least 10 feet in length without trim, 

and having a minimum of 516 clear cutting on each of the 

three best faces. 

Growing-stock trees. Live trees of commercial species 

classified as sawtimber, poletimber, saplings, and seedlings; 

that is, all live trees of commercial species except rough 

and rotten trees. 

Hardwoods. Dicotyledonous trees, usually broad leaved 

and deciduous. 

Industry. A firm or group of firms that assemble inputs in a 

production process and produce an output or group of outputs. 

Nonindustrial lands. Privately owned forested lands other 

than forest industry. 

Population/employment ratio. Population/employment ratios 

are developed in the IMPLAN System by dividing the regional population by the total employment. This ratio is a determination of the number of dependents that are associated 

with an employee. 

Sawlog. A log meeting regional standards of diameter, 

length, and defect, including a minimum 8-foot length and a 

minimum diameter inside bark of 6 inches for softwoods and 

8 inches for hardwoods. 

Sawtimber trees. Live trees of commercial species at least 

9.0 inches d.b.h, for softwoods or 11.0 inches for hardwoods 

containing at least one 12-foot sawlog or two noncontiguous 

8-foot sawlogs, and meeting regional specifications for freedom from defect. 

Sawtimber volume. Net volume in board feet, International 

%-inch rule, of sawlogs in sawtimber trees. Net volume 

equals gross volume less deductions for rot, sweep, and 

other defects that affect use for lumber, 

Sector. An industry or group of industries that is grouped 

together in an Input-Output model to reduce size of the 

model but that still accounts for all industries. 

SIC Standard Industrial Classification codes used by the 

Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. 

Stand-size class. A classification of forest land based on 

the size class (that is, seedlings, saplings, poletimber, or 

sawtimber) of growing-stock trees in the area. 

Softwood. Coniferous trees, usually evergreen, with 

needles or scalelike leaves. 

Timberland. Forest land producing or capable of producing 

crops of industrial wood and not withdrawn from timber utilization. 

Gross state product (GSP) Value of all the goods and 

services produced in a state over a 1 -year period. 
Timber removals. The growing-stock or sawtimber volumes 

of trees removed from the inventory for roundwood products, 

plus logging residues, volume destroyed during land clearing, and volume of standing trees growing on land that was 

reclassified from commercial forest land to noncommercial 

forest land. 

Total final demand. Total final demand is the sum of personal consumption expenditures, capital formation, inventory 

change, state and local government expenditures, federal 

government expenditures and foreign exports. Except for 

foreign exports, these expenditures represent purchases by 

entities within the region from producing sectors both within 

and outside the region. 

Total gross output. The value, in producer prices, of all 

outputs produced by the industries in a sector during 1977. 

Total gross output is the sum of all sales of an industry during a calendar year. It also includes net inventory change, 

which includes the value of outputs produced during the 

year and not sold, also the value of output in process at the 

end of the year minus the value of the output on hand and 

in process at the beginning of the year. 

Total value added. The sum of employee compensation, 

indirect business taxes, rent, profits, interest, dividends, and 

depreciation expenses equals total value added. Value 

added is essentially the income accruing to society when an 

output is produced and sold. 

Veneer log. A roundwood product from which veneer is 

sliced or sawed that usually meets certain minimum standards of diameter, length, and defect. 
-I 

0, 

E 

--------------------------------------r-----------+-------L------ 3 

P) ++* VERMONT IMPACT AREA +*+ IWPACT REPORT tt6.224 =I 

ALTERNATIVE 02: 2 BASE YEAR DATE 02/14/85 

ANALYSIS OF CHANGE IN FiNAL DEMAND PAGE 01 

% 

TOTAL CHANGE IN STANDARD TGO-RELATED FLOYS z 

P) EMPLOYEE COMP PROPERTY INC TOTAL INCOKE VALUE ACDED ElPLOYMENT 9 

SECTOR FINAL DEMAND TGO INCOME (NUPEER 

cnns) cnns ) (nus) cnns) crns) (MMS) CF does) a .................................................................................................................................. (D 

u 

1 AGG*AGRICULTURE & NURSER ~6099 3.0632 -3197 07584 1.0781 1.1823 40.58 

11 FORESTRY AND FISHERY PRO -0970 2.6923 a5037 1.1543 1.6580 1.7088 66.48 

12 AGPICULTUPALI FORESTqY 9 00088 ,3228 01106 e0370 el476 el540 14.52 

29 AGG*STONF~SANDIGRAVEL 00094 el446 -0509 00357 00866 -0902 2.42 

51 NEW CONSTRUCTION tOOOO .OOOO .DO00 .OOOO .0000 00000 .00 

52 HAIITENANCE AND REPPIP C .OOOO 2.5496 1.2411 -2043 1.4454 1.4546 50.11 

56 AGG*SMALL ARMS -0397 e0433 -0238 -0029 -0268 .0271 -79 

59 AGG*FOOD PROCESSING 3.6761 5.7537 07437 01916 09353 1.0544 51-61 

107 AGG*TEXTILES & CLOTHES 1.5302 2.8970 07159 155 8 .a717 08885 79.48 

136 LOGGING CAMPS AN9 LOCGIN -0005 8.6035 1.0633 1.2417 2.3049 2.3910 151.06 

137 AGG*PRIMARY SAUTIMBER US 15.4017 29.8874 1.7572 3.5516 10.3089 10.5550 700.21 

140 AGG*SECONDARY SAUTIPEFR -0864 2.0286 a4711 a2433 .7144 .7316 61.89 

142 VENEER AND PLYUOOD 9.8112 15.3681 3.4388 1.7556 501944 5.3161 527.31 

150 UOOG HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE 69,3037 69.4582 23.7031 4.2571 27.9602 28.6458 2466.79 

153 UPHOLSTERED HOUSEHOLD FU .0011 .0011 e0003 .0001 .0004 .0004 .03 

154 PGG'NON MOOD FURNITURE 0494 00596 00168 00029 -0196 .0201 1.53 

163 PGG+PAPER PRODUCTS. -3603 4.0133 .a459 -4754 1,3213 103632 52.2e 

176 AGG*PR INTING & PUGLISHIN -6521 2.3907 .7887 -2833 1.0720 1.0936 65.17 

191 AGG*fVON PETAL MFG -5346 5.8658 1.6122 05222 2.1343 2.26C9 121.25 

254 AGG+METAL MFG -1209 2.3445 -6268 02092 08360 -8554 43.38 

306 AGG*MACHINESiMACHINE TO0 a0386 07687 .31A6 -0689 -3835 .3934 22.63 

336 AGG*ELEC & ELECTRONIC MF -3680 me350 m2901 00725 03630 037Cl 17.88 

376 LGG+TR ANSPORT ATION EQUIP .2353 03769 01157 00070 01227 01265 6.58 

390 AGG*OTHER CONSUHFR GOODS -5940 m9418 ,3561 m0619 04180 -4252 27.04 

420 PGG*TRRNSPORTATI ON 1.9814 4.5505 1.8866 06312 2.517R 2.7249 1Z6.48 

427 AGG*TELEPHONE*RADJOITV 1.9829 3.8537 1.5801 1.1563 2.7364 3.0853 79.04 

429 AGG*UTTLITIES 2.6633 6.0621 .a866 1.5327 2.4192 2.P653 52.61 

432 YHOLESALE TRADE 3.9571 9.9145 4.0615 1.8249 5 me864 7.3845 325.07 

433 RETAIL TRADE 14.5330 14.9384 6.6921 2.5171 9.2092 11.6851 86C.30 

434 AGG*FINANCE 8 INSURANCE 4.1705 7.6283 2.8443 -8504 3.6947 4.0799 213.39 

439 OWNER-OCCUPIED DUELLINGS 12.5747 12.5747 .DO00 10.6654 10.6654 10.66E4 .no 

440 AGG*PROFESSIONAL & PFRSO 5.5704 11.9217 2.9326 3.4051 6.3377 7.9654 247.61 

441 HOTELS PND LODGING PLACE -7896 1.0211 a3724 -1701 .5426 -5900 e 3.2 1 

447 EATING AND ORINKING PLAC 5.6213 6.7530 2.1883 02504 2.4387 2.8642 327.92 

449 AGG*RFCRFATION SERVICFS 1.0725 1.3697 04176 .I829 .6005 -7587 105.77 

451 AGG+KEDICAL 8 SOCIAL SER 8.7148 9.0736 5.1703 -6971 5.8673 5.9770 544.64 

458 AGG*GOVERNMENT ENTERPRIS -9902 2.0223 1.1702 1426 103127 1.3178 76.09 

466 SCRAP* USED* AND SECONDH .2372 -3179 .OOOO .OOOO .OOOO .OOOO .00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL 167.8784 252.4114 74.3126 39.3194 113.6320 123~0871 7428.86 

CHANGE IN POPULATION = 23081. 
AGG*AGRICtILTURE R NURSER 

FORESTRY AND, FISHERY PRO 

AGPICULTURALi FORESTRY I 

AGG*STONE*SAND IGRA V€L 

NEk CONSTRUCTION 

NATMTENANCE AND REPAIR C 

AGG+SMALL ARMS 

PGG*FOOD PROCESSING 

AGG*TEXTILES 8 CLOTHES 

LOGGING C4MPS ANC! LOGGIN 

AGC*PRIMARY SAUTI MbER US 

AGG*SCCONDARY SAWT IMEER 

VENEER AND PLYWOOD 

UOO9 HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE 

UPHOLSTERED HOUSEHOLD FU 

AGG*NOM UOOD FURNITURE 

AGG*PAPER PRODUCTS. 

AGG+PR INTING & PUBLISHIN 

AGG*NON METAL MFG 

AGG*HE TAL MFG 

AGG*PACHI NESiMACHINE TO0 

AGG*ELEC 8 ELECTRONIC MF 

AGG*TRANSPORTATI ON EQUIP 

AGG*OTHER CONSUMER GOODS 

AGG*TRhNSPORTATIGN 

AGG*TELEPHONEiRADIOITV 

AGG*UTILITIES 

UHOLESALE TRADE 

RETAIL TRADE 

AGG+FI NANCE & INSURANCE 

OUNEH-OCCUPIED DUELLI NGS 

AGG*PRGFESSIONAL & Pf RSO 

HOTELS AND LODGING PLACE 

EATING AND DRINKING PLAC 

AGG*RECREATION SERVICES 

AGG*MEDICAL & SOCIAL SER 

AGG+GOVERNMENT ENTERPRIS 

SCRAP* USED* AND SECONDH .................................................................................................................................. TOTAL 202.9821 305.1322 89.9315 47.5029 137.4344 148.8750 8990.35 

CHANGE IN POPULATION = 27732. 
----------------------=------------------- ---- ------------~-----~~---~~m-->---*-~-~~-~*-----=v-a=-=-***------------------ 

*** VFRUONT IMPACT AREA *** IMPACT REPORT t6.224 

ALTFRNATIVC 04: 4 MINUS 20 PERCENT DbTE 02/14/85 

ANALYSIS OF CHANGE IN FINAL DEMAND PPGE 01 

TOTAL CHANGE 1N STANDARD TGO-RELATED FLOYS .................................................................................................................................. EMPLOYFE COMP PROPERTY INC TOTAL INCGNE VALUE ACCEC EPPLCYMFNT 

SECTOR FINAL DEPAND TGO INCORF: (NUPEER 

t nnr) (MU$ ) tnns) (nus) tnns) (MNS) CF JOBS) .................................................................................................................................. PGG*4GRICULTURE 8 NURSER 

FORESTRY bND FISHERY PRO 

AGRICULTURALI FORESTRY I 

AGG*STONErSAND IGPAVFL 

KEU CONSTRUCTION 

MPINTEKANCE AND SEPPIR 

kGG*Sfl~AtL ARMS 

AGG*FOOD PROCESSING 

AGG'TEXTILES & CLOTHES 

LOGGING CAMPS PND LOG6 IN 

bGG*PR IRARY SAUTIMBER US 

AGG*SECONDARY SAUT IMHER 

VENEER AND PLYUOGD 

MOOD HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE 

UPHOLSTERED HOUSFHOLD FU 

AGG*NON UOOD FURNITURE 

AGC*PA PER PRODUCTS. 

AGG*PR INTING & PUBLISHIN 

AGG*NON METAL MFG 

AGG*ME TAL MFG 

AGG*PIACHI~'ES~UACHINE TOO 

AGG*FLEC 8 ELECTRONIC MF 

AGG*TRPMSPORTATION FOUIP 

AGG*OTHER CONSUEER GPODS 

AGG*TRAMSPORTATIGN 

AGG*TELEPHONE IRADIO~TV 

AGG*UT ILITIES 

UHOLESALE TRADE 

RETAIL TRADF 

AGG*FINANCE & INSURAhCE 

OUkER-OCCUPIED DUELLINGS 

AGC*PROFESSIONAL & PERSO 

HOTELS AND LGDGING PLACE 

EATING AND DRINKING PLAC 

AGG*RECREATION SERVICES 

AGG*MEDICAL 8 SOCIAL SER 

AGG*GOVERNHENT ENTERPRIS 

SCRAP* USED* AND SECONDH .................................................................................................................................. TOTAL 135.3113 203.4081 59.9502 31.6654 91.6157 99.2418 5993.16 

CHANGE IN POPULATION = 18620. 
AGG*AGRICULTURE R NURSER 

FORESTRY AND FISHFRY PRO 

AGRICULTURAL I FORESTRY 

AGG*STONE I SAND IGRA VEL 

NEU CDMSTRUCTION 

MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR C 

AGG*SMALL ARMS 

AGG+FOOD PROCESSING 

AGG*TEXTILES & CLOTH€ S 

LOGGING CAMPS AND LOEGIN 

AGG*PRIMARY SAUTIMBER US 

AGG*SECONDARY SAWTIMBER 

VENEER AND PLYUOOD 

WOOD HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE 

UPHOLSTERED HOUSEHOLO FU 

AGGfNON MOOD FURNITURE 

LGG*PAPER PRODUCTS. 

AGG*PR INTING E PUBLISHIN 

AtG*NON PETAL MFF 

AGG*METAL RFG 

RGG*KACHINESiMACHINE TOO 

AGG*ELFC & ELECTRONIC MF 

LGGtTRANSPORTATION EQUIP 

AGG*OTHER CONSUMER GOODS 

AGG*TRANSPORTATI ON 

AGG*TELEPHONEIRADIO*TV 

AGGWTILI TIES 

UHOLE SALE TRADE 

RETAIL TRADE 

AGG*F I NANCE & INSURANCE 

OYNER-OCCUPIED DWELL1 NGS 

AGG*PROFESSIONAL R PFRSO 

HOTELS AND LODGING PLACE 

EATING AND DRINKING PLAC 

AGG*RECREATION SERVICES 

AGG*MEUICAL E SOCIAL SER 

AGG*GOVERNRENT ENTERPRIS 

SCRAP* USED* AND SECONDH 
Michaels, Joseph A.; Stone, M. Brian; Sendak, Paul E. The economic importance of Vermont's sawtimber. NE-RP-587. Broomall, PA: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station; 1986. 12 p. 

This paper concentrates on the potential economic importance of Vermont's 

sawtimber. The timber industry employed over 9,000 workers in 1980, and 

the value of stumpage cut that year was worth approximately $459 million to 

the State's economy. Preliminary resurvey data indicate that sawtimber inventory now exceeds 14 billion board feet. Yet, sawtimber removals have 

averaged only 200 million board feet per year over the last 10 years. We 

used an input-output model called IMPLAN V1.l to predict socio-economic 

impacts of several sawtimber production levels. The results indicate that 

improved markets for the existing resource could significantly contribute to 

the State's economy. If 50 percent of the projected annual growth could 

be marketed, an additional $1 52 million contribution could be made to the 

State's gross product and over 9,000 new jobs created. 
Headquarters of the Northeastern Forest Experiment Station are in 

Broomall, Pa. Field laboratories are maintained at: 

Amherst, Massachusetts, in cooperation with the University of 

Massachusetts. 

Berea, Kentucky, in cooperation with Berea College. 

Burlington, Vermont, in cooperation with the University of Vermont. 

i/ Delaware, Ohio. 

Durham, New Hampshire, in cooperation with the University of New 

Hampshire. 

Hamden, Connecticut, in cooperation with Yale University. 

Morgantown, West Virginia, in cooperation with West Virginia 

University, Morgantown. 

Orono, Maine, in cooperation with the University of Maine, Orono. 

Parsons, West Virginia. 

Princeton, West Virginia. 

Syracuse, New York, in cooperation with the State University of New 

York College of Environmental Sciences and Forestry at Syracuse 

University, Syracuse. 

University Park, Pennsylvania, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania 

State University. 

Warren, Pennsylvania. 

Persons of any race, color, national origin, sex, age, religion, or with any 

handicapping condition are welcome to use and enjoy all facilities, programs, 

and services of the USDA. Discrimination in any form is strictly against 

agency policy, and should be reported to the Secretary of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20250.