- E--kM1 ST)-'7 LfL1D / Y c4C

Central Air Conditioner

Standards Workshop

December 9, 1999

0

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC , . . . ~ - ~ ..-

Central Air Conditioner 

Standards Workshop 

December 9, 1999 
EE-RMISTD-8-440

Wnorkshnn Pirnnpoe

* Present overview of methodologies and results of

analyses completed for ANOPR

* Provide opportunity for comments and questions

* Present Plans for analyses for NOPR

* Provide opportunity for suggested improvements in

methodologies, assumptions, and data sources.

2

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

, · , 

EE-RM/STD-98-440 

• Present overview of methodologies and results of 

analyses completed for ANOPR . 

• Provide opportunity for comments and questions 

• Present Plans for analyses for NOPR 

• Provide opportunity for suggested improvements in 

methodologies, assumptions, and data sources. 

2 
Iqcc

EE-RM/STD-98440

ANV PR ,rPhodj,1

* November 24, 1999 - Published in Federal Register

* February 7, 2000 - Comment period closes

3

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

EE_RM/STD-98-440 {'-icc 

• November 24, 1999 - Published in Federal Register 

• February 7, 2000 - Comment period closes 

3 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 c

WoVr nlh n n1fyhop ntre Li6

* Agenda

* Copies of presentations

* Compact Disc with:

- Federal Register notice

- Technical Support Document

- Excel Spreadsheet Models

4

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

EE-RM/STD-98-440 t t.{ c c 

• Agenda 

• Copies of presentations 

• Compact Disc with: 

- Federal Register notice 

- Technical Support Document 

- Excel Spreadsheet Models 

4 
EE-RM/STD-98-440

· Objective: to provide estim of Ate produt ct f

* Objective: to provide estimate of product cost for

economic analyses

* Industry cost analysis

- industry-provided manufacturing cost multipliers

* Reverse engineering analysis

- baseline and higher manufacturing costs

- validate industry data

5

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

" 

. . EE_RM/STD-98-440 

• Objective: to provide estimate of product cost for' 

economic analyses 

• Industry cost analysis 

- industry-provided manufacturing cost multipliers 

• Reverse engineering analysis 

- baseline and higher manufacturing costs 

- validate industry data 

5 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 c

I ssVes^ for Comment ( 

* Industry versus reverse engineering costs

* Emerging technologies

* Steady-state efficiency (EER)

* Heat pump efficiency

* Capacity

* Niche products

* Alternative refrigerants

* Retail markups

* Elasticities in shipments forecasts

* Adverse consumer impacts

* Non-regulatory alternatives

* Candidate standards levels and scenarios

6

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

• Industry versus reverse engineering costs 

• Emerging technologies 

• Steady-state efficiency (EER) 

• Heat pump efficiency 

• Capacity 

• Niche products 

• Alternative refrigerants 

• Retail markups 

• Elasticities in shipments forecasts 

• Adverse consumer impacts 

• Non-regulatory alternatives 

• Candidate standards levels and scenarios 

6 

EE-RM/STD-98-440 tL{ cc 
EE-RM/STD-98-440

Industry and Reverse

Engineering Analyses

4.

Split AIC

3.5

-2.5-/ / _ ARI Max 0 /

-/ - ARI Mean

2o / /

1.6 ' E --- ~ ARI Min

1.5."' - - ADL Mean

11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Efficiency Level (SEER)

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

-III 

o 

() 

EE_RM/STO-98-440 

Industry and Reverse . 

Engineering Analyses 

4~----------------------------------

3.5 +-------------------------r------------- Split Ale 

3+---------------~~----------------

~ 2.5 +----------------/--------------------- --ARt Max 

.!!! 

CD 

" 2+------------+---7~--_=~~-------- -"... --

1.5 +-----..."..L.---,~___:;;,~~----------------

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 

Efficiency Level (SEER) 

- - ARt Mean 

--ARt Min 

- - ADL Mean 

11./ cc 
EE-RM/STD-98-440

A, Emerging Technologies

5a'~ Considered P..

* Microchannel heat exchangers

* Advanced compressors

* Variable speed compressor motors

* Advanced fan motor controls

8

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

EE-RM/STD-98-440 

Emerging Technologies 

Considered 

• Microchannel heat exchangers 

• Advanced compressors 

• Variable speed compressor motors 

• Advanced fan motor controls 

8 

(vee. 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 C-

· A Nirchp Prndutrf. - Ml I, W - -A M WIW WI U' WI 5-

* Ductless split systems

* High-velocity, small duct systems

* Vertical packaged, wall-mounted systems

* Through-the-wall condensing units

9

· ' EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

EE-RM/STD-S8-440 l <.{ ccNiche Prod'lcts 

• Ductless split systems 

• High-velocity, small duct systems 

• Vertical packaged, wall-mounted systems 

• Through-the-wall condensing units 

9 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 I

in!fe aOttMM 1PI A *Ab a B P %W, ww M a

* HCFC-22 used in analyses

* Alternative refrigerants:

- HFC-407C

- HFC-410A

10

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

EE-RM/STD-98-440 1'-1 cc-

• HCFC-22 used in analyses 

• Alternative refrigerants: 

-HFC-407C 

-HFC-410A 

10 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 /

6FL Life-cycle Cost and S

~"BP Consumer Subgroup

Life-cycle costs and payback for consumers

* Life-cycle costs and paybacks for low-income and

elderly

11

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

Life-cycle Cost and 

Consumer Subgroup 

• Life-cycle costs and payback for cons.umers 

EE-RM/STD-98-440 It{ cc.. 

• Life-cycle costs and paybacks for low-income and 

elderly 

11 
EE-RM/STD-98-44V1 cc

il, Life-cycle Cost Analysis ^

Issues

Economic assumptions:

- Equipment lifetime

- Discount rate

- Time-of-use electricity prices

- Hours of usage

12

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

Life-cycle Cost Analysis 

Issues 

Economic assumptions: 

- Equipment lifetime 

- Discount rate 

- Time-of-use electricity prices 

- Hours of usage 

12 

EE-RM/STD-98-4401lf cc 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 C c

ha Shipments and

qVH^ National Energy Savings

Forecasts with and without further standards:

- Shipments

- National energy consumption

- Net-present value

13

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

'. . EE-RM/STD-98-440 

Shipments and 

National Energy Savings 

• Forecasts with and without further standards: 

- Shipments 

- National energy consumption 

- Net-present value 

13 

/«..( cc 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 / f C C

ii ational Energy Savings Analysik'

5iqV~ Issues

* Methodologies

* Assumptions

* Data sources

14

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

EE_RM/STD-98-440 lye cational Energy Savings Analys· 

Issues 

• Methodologies 

• Assumptions 

• Data sources 

14 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 I v c<

Candidate Standard

Levels

Candidate standard levels:

-SEER 11

-SEER 12

- SEER 13

Maximum Technologically Feasible (approximately SEER 20

level)

15

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

· ·.l . 

Candidate Standard 

Leveis 

• Candidate standard levels: 

- SEER 11 

- SEER 12 

- SEER 13 

EE-RM/STD-98-440 f'-l c c... 

Maximum Technologically Feasible (approximately SEER 20 

level) 

15 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 I ' cc

g] Manufacturer Impact f

EWS" iAnalysis

* Forecast changes in industry:

- cash flow

- employment

16

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

." . 

Manufacturer Impact 

Analysis 

• Forecast changes in industry: 

- cash flow 

- employment 

16 

EE-RM/STD-98-440 I L{ cc. 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 / q c c

^1 Manufacturer Impact ^

Air Analysis Issues

* Methodologies

* Assumptions

* Data sources

17

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

Manufacturer Impact 

Analysis Issues 

• Methodologies 

• Assumptions 

• Data sources 

17 

EE-RM/STD-98-440 II.{CC. 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 I I c

~~ Net National Employment ^

Impacts

*Changes in net national employment, in addition to

impacts on industry employment due to potential standards

18

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

.. ,. .. 

EE-RM/STD-98-440 1<-( CL 

Net National Employment 

Impacts 

-Changes in net national employment, in addition to 

impacts on industry employment due to potential standards 

18 
I q cc

EE-RM/STD-98-440

s Net National Employment :

arti Impact Issues

* Methodologies

* Assumptions

* Data sources

19

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

EE_RM/STD-98-440 

Net National Employment 

Impact Issues 

• Methodologies 

• Assumptions 

• Data sources 

19 
EE-RM/STD-98-440

*~ Utility ImpactAnalysis and A

:p Environmental Assessment

· Utility Impact Analysis

- impacts on electric utilities

- fuel switching

· Environmental Assessment - changes in emissions

20

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

EE-RM/STD-98-440 

Utility ImpactAnalysis and 

Environmental Assessment 

• Utility Impact Analysis 

- impacts on electric utilities 

- fuel switching 

• Environmental Assessment - changes in emissions 

20 

II.{ cc 
EE-RM/STD-98-440 / L/ c'

I~ UUtility Impact Analysis and

'I7'Environmental Assessment IssueWJ

* Methodologies

* Assumptions

* Data sources

21

EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 14CC

EE-RM/STD-98-440 I L/ CCUtility Impact Analysis and 

nvironmental Assessment Issue . 

• Methodologies 

• Assumptions 

• Data sources 

21