Data from the

NATIONAL VITAL STATISTICSSYSTEM

Series 20

Number 15

Mortality Trends:

Age,Color, and Sex

United States -1950-69

An analysis of countervailing changes in components of the nearly

stable crude death rate during 1950-69, trends of age-adjusted and

age-specific death rates by color and sex, and changes in sex and

color differentials for mortality by age. Important trends include

the rise in the death rate for young people 15-24 years of age, the

fall in the death rate for older Americans 45 years and over, and

the upturn in the level of excess mortality for young men, particularly for other-than-white young men.

DHEW Publication No. (HRA) 74-1852

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE

Public Health Service

Health Resources Administration

National Center for Health Statistics

Rockville, Md. November 1973
V&J and Health Statistics-Series 20-No. 15

Forsaleby the Snperintmdentof Docmmmt.s,U.S. Gmmment PrintingOffioe,Washington,D.C. !20402- PIice70 cents
NAT ONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STAT STICS

EDWARD B. PERRIN, Ph.D., Acting Director

PHILIP S. LAWRENCE, SC.D., Deputy Director

GAIL F. FISHER, A&tat Director for Health StatisticsDevelopment

WALT R. SIMMONS, M.A., Assistant Dt_rectorfor Research and ScientificDwelopment

JOHN J. HANLON, M.D., Medical Advisor

JAMES E. KELLY, D.D.S., Dental Advisor

EDWARD E. MINTY, Executive Officer

ALICE HAYWOOD, Information Officer

DIVISION OF VITAL STATISTICS

ROBERT A. ISIUEL, M.S., Director

JOHN E. PATTERSON, Assistant Director for Demographic Affairs

ROBERT J; ARMSTRONG, M..i, Chi~J Mortafify–Sgtifics Branc~

vital and Health statistics-series 20.NC,. 15

DHEW Publication No. (HRA) 74-1852

Library of Congress Catalog CardNumber 73-600232
CONTENTS

Page

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Countervailing Changes in Components of the Cmde Death Rate . . . . . . 2

The Changing Age Composition of the Population . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Changes in Level of Mortahty for Different Age Groups . . . . . . . . . 4.

Net Effect of Changes in Population and Death Rates Between 1960 and 1969,

by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Cumulative Effect of Reduction of Live Births During the 1960’s . . , . . . 8

Growing Gap Between Crude and Age-Adjusted Death Rates . . . . . . . . 11

Trends of Age-Adjusted Death Rates by Color and Sex . . . . . . . . . . 12

Sex Differentials for Mortality by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Color Differentials for Morta.Ety by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Both Sexes by Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16

Male Population by Age.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..17

Female PopuIationby Age... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..17

Individual Cohorts for OIder Ages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..18

Effect of Changes in Death Rates and Age Composition on 1969 Crude Death

Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...18

Color Differentisds for Mortality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Sex Differentials for Mortahty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...21

LktofDetailedT abbes.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..22

Appendix I. Technical Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...31

Appendix II. The United States Standard Certificate of Death as Revised

1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...33

Appendix III. Effect of the Reduction in Live Births During 1961-69 on the

1969 Crude Death Rate . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . 35

iii
SYMBOLS

I

Data not available ------------------------------------- ---

I

I

Category not applicable ------------------------------- . . .

I

Quantity zero ---------------------------------------------- -

Quantity more than O but less than 0.05 ----- 0.0

Fi@re does not meet standards of

reliability or precision ------------------------------ *
MORTALITY TRENDS:

AGE, COLOR, AND SEX, UNITED STATES, 1950-69

A. Joan Klebba, M-A., Jeffrey D. Maurer, B.S.A., and Evelyn J. Glass, B.S., Division of Vital Statistics

INTRODUCTION The pattern of the death rate for influenza

reflects clearly the occurrence of the serious epiThe crude death rate for the United States demics of this disease during 1950-69 (figure 2).

experience d a clear downward trend throughout Along with major influenza epidemics in the

the first half of this century. It reached a low in United States there have been increases in re1954 (919.0 deaths per 100,000 population) ported deaths from dkeases of the heart and cerand then began to level off (figure 1). The rate tain other chronic dkeases. Evidence of these

was relatively stable during 1954-69 with the ex- associated increases has been detailed for all inception of fluctuations associated for the most fluenza epidemics from 1918 through 1951 by

part with epidemics of influenza. For the severe Collins and Lehmannl and for the epidemic of

influenza epidemic year of 196 8—with peaks of 1963 by Klebba and Robinson.z

mortality at both the beginning and end of the This report presents important changes in

year-a high point of 965.7 deaths per 100,000 the patterns of vital events in the United States

population was reached. The rate then dropped that have had offsetting effects on the crude

back for 1969 (951.9 deaths per 100,000) to death rate from 1950 through 1969. It analyzes

about the same level recorded for 1966. how major changes in the age composition of

IATE PER lCQ,OMI POPULATION

2,900

1,600

..z

Crude death rate

t,rm

900

I

Awadjuaed death ram

800

7cm

600

600 I I Ill I Ill 111111111 I Ill 1111 I 111111111 111111111 Ill II 1111 I 11111 [11

1000 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970

YEAR

Figure 1. Crude and age-adjusted death rates: death-registratmn States, 1900-32, and United States, 1933-69.

1
1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 195s 1959

YEAR AND MONTH

Figure 2. Death rates for influenza, by month: United States, 1950-69.

the population and widely varying mortality

trends for the four color-sex groups have counterbalanced one another’s effects on the crude

death rate and have resulted in its near stability

during the 1960’s. The report also presents

trends for 1950-69 of (1) age-adjusted death

rates by color and sex, using the total population in the United States in 1940 as the standard

(appendix I); (2) age-specific death rates by

color and sex; (3) sex differentials for mortality

by age; and (4) color differentials for mortality

by age.

COUNTERVAILING CHANGES IN

COMPONENTS OF THE CRUDE

DEATH RATE

The nearly stable crude death rate during

the 1960’s suggests nothing of the major changes

in mortality trends for several large segments of

the population that occurred during these years,

One of the reasons for this is that the effect of

these changes on the crude death rate was offset

in part by major changes in the age composition ‘

of the population. In addition, although de. !

creases occurred in the death rates for children

under 15 years of age and for adults 45 years

and over, they were counterbalanced in part by

appreciable increases in the death rate for per.

sons 15-44 years of age. These counter-wiling

changes are discussed below.

The Changing Age Composition

of the Population

Changes in population between 1960 and

1969 for the following five age groups tencfed to ,

2

1

I
i

32

30

28

26

I

18ED 1961 7962 1963 706’4 1965 1986 1967> 7968

YEAR AND MONTH

1

24

22 “

20

18

16

14

/

12

10

8

6

1am

Figure 2. Death rates for influenza, by month: United States, 7950-69.-Con.

lower the crude death rate for 1969 below what

it would have been without these changes: under

1, 5-9, 10-14, 15-24, and 25-44 years.

The age group under 1 year-a high-risk

group-had a death rate for 1969 (2,148.0

deaths per 100,000) that was far above the

crude death rate for that year (95 1.9 deaths per

100,000). The remaining four age groups-all relatively low risk groups-had age-specific death

rates for 1969 that were below the crude death

rate for that year. The high-risk age group under

1 year had a decrease in population between

1960 and 1969 of 15.0 percent; while the lower

risk age groups 5-9, 10-14, 15-24, and 25-44

years had increases of, respectively, 11.4, 22.3,

42.4, and 1.4 percent. The unprecedented increase of 42.4 percent at ages 15-24 years represents an addition of 10,193,996 young people

(from 24.020.004 for 1960 to 34.214.000 for

~969). This I&ge segment of young people was

born during the period of high birth rates following World War II, for the most part during

1947-56. As shown on page 4, this steep rise in

the number of young people at ages 15-24 years

occurred for each of the four color-sex groups.

The remaining three age groups (1-4, 45-64,

and 65 years and over) had changes in population between 1960 and 1969 that tended to

raise the 1969 crude death rate. There was a

decrease in population of 10.8 percent in the

low-risk group 1-4 years; an increase of 14.7 percent in the relatively high risk group 45-64

years; and an increase of 17.6 percent in the

very high risk group 65 years and over.
Color, sex, and year

—Total

1960 . . . . . . . . . . .

1969 . . . . . . . . . . .

White. male

1960 . . . . . . . . . . .

1969 . . . . . . . . . . .

White, female

1960 . . . . . . . . . . .

1969 . . . . . . . . . . .

AIF Other, male

1960 . . . . . . . . . . .

1969 . . . . . . . . . . .

All other, female

1960 . . . . . . . . . . .

1969 . . . . . . . . . . .

Persons 1524 years of age

.

Number

24,020,004

34,214,000

10,482,916

14,708,000

10,596,093

15,002,000

1,423,086

2,193,000

1,517,910

2,311,000

Proportion of total

population

0.133948

0.169443

0.058458

0.072640

0.059089

0.074296

0.007936

0.010861 —

0.008465

0.011446

Propofiion of specifie(

color-sex group

0,133948

; 0.169443

0.133767

0.170003

0.131686

0.166647

0.142818

0.183269

0.144191

0.179523

Total population

179,323,175

201,921,000

78,367,149

86,516,000

80,464,583

90,560,000

9,964,346

11,966,000

10,527,098

12,873,000

Changesin Level of Mortality

for Different Age Groups

Between 1960 and 1969 there was anappreeiable lowering of thedeath rates for persons

45 years ind over (tables 1 and2). The largest

decreases occurred for the age groups 75-79

years (with a decrease of 8.3 percent) and 80-84

years (with a deefease of 14.0 percent).

For thk same time period there were also

decreases in the death rate for children under 15

years of age. The largest of @ese decreases were

for ages under 1 year (wi$h a decrease of 20.3

percent) and for ages 1-4 years (with a decrease

of 22.1 percent).

But the effect on the crude death rate for

1969 of these decreases in the death rates at

both the beginning and later years of the lifespan was canceled in part by the even more

marked increases in the death rates for persons

in each 5-year age group from 15 years through

44 years.

15-19 . . . . 92.2 114,7 +24.4

20-24 . . . . 123.6 147.6 +T9.4

26-29_ . . . . 130.8 144.5 +fo45

30-34 . . . . 160.7 175,6 + 9.2

35-39 233.6 254.0 + 8.7

40-44:::: 370.2 365.2 + 4,1

These increases in the death rates for teenagers, young adults, and people approaching the

middle years of life reflected primarily an up

turn in the death rates for men in these age

groups. There were also, however, substantial increases in the death rates for white women at

ages 15-24 and 35-44 years and for women of

other races at ages 15-24 years (figures 3A and

3B).

In general, both the relative and absolute

increases in mortality during 1960-69 were

A
lower for white men than for other men. It

should be stressed that the excess mortrdity for

younger men did not include the battle deaths

and deaths of male civilians occurring in foreign

countries during this period. These rates were

based only on deaths occurring within the

United States among the resident population,

excluding the Armed Forces overseas and persons living abroad, but including the Armed

Forces in the United States.

Net Effect of Changesin Population and Death

Rates Between 1960 and 1969, by Age

The net effect of the changes in population

and death rates on the 1969 crude death rate is

shown below for each age group (table A).

The number of infants in 1969 was 15.0

percent lower than the number in 1960, and

their death rate for 1969 was 20.3 percent lower

than that for 1960. The combined effect of

these changes on th& 1969 crude death rate was

to lower it 14.7 deaths per 100,000.

The net effect of the reduction between

1960 and 1969 of 10.8 percent in the number of

chddren at ages 1-4 years and of the 22.1 percent decrease in their death rate was to raise the

1969 crude death rate 5.6 deaths per 100,000.

,

For these children, with their low risk of mortality (85.0 deaths per 100,000 for 1969), the

downward effect on the 1969 crude death rate

of the decline in their death rate was more than

offset by the upward effect of the reduction in

their number.

For children at ages 5-9 years, with their

low death rate (49.0 deaths per 100,000 for

1960 and 42.7, for 1969), the increase of 11.4

percent in their number, together with the decline of 12.9 percent in their death rate between

1960 and 1969 lowered the 1969 crude death

rate 10.3 deaths per 100,000. It might be noted

that the children who were 5-9 years of age in

1969 (20,827,000) were for the most part the

survivors of the 20,950,672 infants born in the

United States during July 1959 through June

1964, during the last 3 years of which period the

number of live births was decreasing; whereas

the children who were 5-9 years of age in 1960

(18,691,780) were the survivors of the

19,306,617 infants born during July 1950

through June 1955, during which period the

number of live births was increasing.

Again for 1969, as for each year in the

present century, children at ages 10-14 years had

a lower risk of death than did persons in any

other 5-yesr age group. Between 1960 and 1969

Table A. Percentage changes between 1960 and 1969 in death rates and population, by

age; together with the net effect of the changes on the 1969 crude death rate

I I

k=l-==i’~=w” Percentage :~~6~etween 1960

Age in years

Under l---------------------- -20.3 -15.0 -14.7

1-4-------------------------- -22.1 -10.8 +5.6

5-9-------------------------- -12.9 +11.4 -10.3

10-14 ------------------------ -5.5 +22.3 -17.4

15-24 ------------------------ +22.1 +42.4 -40.7

25-44 ------------------------ +6.0 +1.4 +0.8

45-64 ------------------------ -2.8 +14 .7 -0.7

65 and over ------------------ -0.3 +17.6 +73 .8

i

For each age group the net change was obtained in the foLlowing two steps. In the

numerator of the 1969 crude death rate the number of deaths for the given age group was

replaced b

i

the corresponding number for 1960; and in the denominator the 1969 popula.

tion for t e age group was replaced by the corresponding population for 1960. The resulting hypothetical crude death rate was then subtracted from the actual 1969 crude

death rate to obtain the net change for the given age group.

5
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Figure 3A. Death rates per 100,000 population, by age and sax for the white population: death-registration States, 1900-32, and

United States, 19S3.69.

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Figure 30. Death rates per 100,000 population, by age and sex for the population of races other than white: death-regmration

States, 1930-32, and United States, 1933-69.

7
the population in thk very low risk group increased 22.3 percent (from 16,773,492 for 1960

to 20,518,000 for 1969). Over the same period

the death rate for these children declined 5.5

percent (from 44.0 deaths per 100,000 for 1960

to 41.6, for 1969]. The net effect of these

changes, both of which operated in the same

direction, was to lower the 1969 crude death

rate about 17.4 deaths per 100,000.

As stated above, between 1960 and 1969

there was an increase of 42.4 percent in the

number of young people at ages 15-24 years—

from 24,020,004 for 1960 to 34,214,000 for

1969. Despite the fact that during the same period there was also au increase of 22.1 percent in

their death rate (from 106.3 deaths per 100,000

for 1960 to 129.8, for 1969), these young people continued to have, of course, a risk of death

that is relatively low when compared to the risk

for the entire population (951.9 deaths per

100,000 for 1969). The downward effect on the

crude death rate of the increase of 42.4 percent

in their number was greater than the upward

effect of the increase in their death rate. The net

effect of these two opposing changes was to

lower the 1969 crude death rate by 40.7 deaths

per 100,000.

The effect on the 1969 crude death rate of’

the 1.4 percent increase in the number of persons 25-44 years (from” 46,899,662 for 1960 to

_ 47,566,000 for 1969) was to lower it. But this

downward effect was somewhat more than offset by the 6.0 percent rise in their death rate

(from 225.0 deaths per 100,000 population for

1960, to 238.5 deaths, for 1969). The net effect

of these opposing changes was to raise only

slightly the 1969 crude deafi rate (by 0.8 deaths

per 100,000).

The age group 45-64 yeas experienced between 1960 and 1969 a sizable reduction in its

death rate (amounting to 2.8 percent, from

1,178.9 deaths per 100,000 to 1,146.2 per

100,000). But the effect on the 1969 crude

death rate of the decline in their death rate was

almost entirely offset by the large increase (14.7

percent) in their number (from 36,057,756 for

1960 to 41,366,000 for 1969). The net impact

on the crude death rate of these offsetting

changes was to lower it only 0.7 deaths per

100,000.

Between 1960 and 1969 the increase in the

number of persons at ages 65 years and over

amounted to 17.6 percent–from 16,559,580 to

19,470,000. The upward effect on the 1969

crude death rate of this increase in the number

of these high-risk older people was partly offset

by the decrease in their death rate (from 6,099.5

deaths per 100,000 for 1960 to 6,084.0 deaths

per 100,000 for 1969). Nevertheless the net effect on the crude death rate of these opposing

changes was sizable: the crude death rate for

1969 was 73.8 deaths per 100,000 higher than it

would have been if these changes had not

occurred.

The total effect of the changes between

1960 and 1969 in the numbers of people and

the death rates for the age groups under 1, 5-9,

10-14, 15-24, and 45-64 years tended to lower

the crude rate by about 83.8 deaths per

100,000; and the total effect of the changes in

the numbers of people and the death rates for

the remaining age groups (l-4, 25-44, and 65

years and over) tended to raise,the crude death

rate for 19.69 by 80.2 deaths per 100,000. The

difference bet ween these nearly counterbalancing amounts approximates the difference

between the crude death rate for 1960 (954.7

deaths per 100,000) and that for 1969” (951.9

deaths per 100,000).

CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF REDUCTION OF

LIVE BIRTHS DURING THE 1960’s

The cumulative effect of the reduction of

live births during the 1960’s on the crude death

rate for 1969 was to raise it about 8.3 deaths per

100,000 higher (or less than 1 percent) than it

would have been if the number of births had

remained constaut at the .July 1960-June 1961

level (appendix III). The reduction in live births

led to an exclusion of an estimated 733,296 infants with their high risk of death who would

have been a part of the population in 1969.

However, this exclusion was more than offset by

the exclusion of children from 1 to 10 yearsof

age (2,503,518 children at ages 1-4 years and

458,351 children at ages 5-9 years) with their

low risk of death who would also have been 5

part of the 1969 population.

The curve of the age-specific death rate

(figure 4, called the “J-curve” because of its

shape) sheds light on why the effect of the exclusion of the infants was offset by the effect of

the exclusion of the 1-4 and 5-9 year age groups.

8
20,WI 7

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14.WO —

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RATES FOii AGES 2.32 YEARS

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Figure 4. Death rates by age and sex: United States, 1969.

9
Table B. Population and percent distribution by age, United States, 1940, 1950, 1960, and 1969; death

rates, differences, and percents of difference by age; and age-adjuated death rates, United States,

1950, 1960, and 1969

Rate per 100,000

population

Year and age in years

Percent

distribution

)ifference:

Ieathsper

,00,0001+

Pe~ant

IkLfference

,Opulation

(1)

Ageadjnsted

eath rate

eath rate

(2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

19405

All ages---------- .31,669,275 100.0000 . . . . . . . . . . . .

Under 1 ----------------

1-4---------------------

5.14--------------------

15-24-------------------

25-34-------------------

35-44-------------------

45-54-------------------

55-64-------------------

65-74-------------------

75-84-------------------

.35and over-------------

2,020,174

8,521,350

22,430,557

23,921,358

21,339,026

18,333,220

15,512,071

10,572,205

6,376,189

2,278,373

364,752

1.5343

6.4718

17.0355

18.1677

16.2066

13.9237

11.7811

8.0294

4.8426

1.7303

0.2770

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

.,.

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

.,.

,..

. . .

. . .

1950

All ages---------- .50,697,361 1+122.3

3,146,948

13,016,623

24,318,953

22,098,426

23,759,267

21,450,359

17,342,653

13,369,520

8,339,960

3,277,751

576,901

100.0000

2.0883

8.6376

16.1376

14.6641

15.7662

14.2341

11.5083

8.8718

5.5342

2.1751

0.3828

963.8

—

3,299.2

139.4

60.1

128.1

178.7

358.7

853.9

1,901.0

4,104.3

9,331.1

20,196.9

841.5 -!-100.0

+14 .9

+2.5

~$.$

-0:6

+0.9

-1.9

+13.1

+23.2

+33 .9

+17.5

Under 1-----------------

1-4---------------------

5-14--------------------

15-24-------------------

25-34------------------

35-44-------------------

45-54-------------------

55-64-------------------

65-74-------------------

75-84-------------------

85 and over-------------

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

1+193.8 +100.0

+10.6

+’1.4

+0.7

-2.6

-2.6

-0.8

-1.4

+5.9

+25.4

+38.5

+24.7

All ages---------- !79.323 .175 100.0000 954.7 760.9

‘3+20.5

3+2.8

3+1.3

~-5.l

3-5.1

3-1.5

8-2.7

3+11.4

3-1-49.3

3+74.6

3+47.9

Under 1-----------------

1~---------------------

5-14--------------------

15-24-------------------

25-34-------------------

35-44-------------------

45-54-------------------

55-64-------------------

65-74-------------------

75-84-------------------

85 and over-------------

4,111,949

16,208,852

35,465,272

24,020,004

22,818,310

24,081,352

20,485,439

15,572> 317

10,996,842

4,633,486

929,252

2.2930

9.0390

19.7773

13.3948

12.7247

13.4290

11.4238

8.6839

6.1324

2.5839

0.5182

2,;:;.:

46:6

106.3

146.4

299.4

756.0

1,735.1

3,822.1

8,745.2

19,857.5

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

. . .

lFor all ages, the difference is column 3 minus column 4.

2For the age group,the clifference is the 1950 percent distribution (column

distribution (calunm 2) times the 1950 death rate (COIUIUI’I 3) times 0.01.

3For the age group,the difference is the 1960 percent distribution (cohmm

dis~ribution (colurm 2) times the 1960 death rate (column 3) times 0.01.

‘For the age group,the difference is the 1969 percent distribution (column

distribution (column 2) times the 1969 death rate (column 3) times 0.01.

5The 1940 population is used as the standard (appendix I).

2)

2)

2)

minus

minus

minus

the 1940

the 1940

fthe1940

percent

percent

percent

10
Table B. Population and percent distribution by age, United States, 1940, 1950, 1960, and 1969; death

rates, differences, and percents of difference by age; and age-adjusted death rates, United States,

1950, 1960, and 1969-Con,

Year and age in years

All ages----------

Under 1-----------------

- ....................-

:-!4--------------------

15-24-------------------

25-34-------------------

35-44-------------------

45-54-------------------

55-64-------------------

65-74------------------

7.5-s4-------------------

S5 and mer-------------

Population

(1)

201,921.000

3,495,000

14,463,000

41,345,000

34,214,000

24,390,000

23,176,000

23,154,000

18,212,000

11,954,000

6,227,000

1,2S9,000

Rate per 100,000

mr.ulation

Percent

r

. .

distributicm

Death rate

+

(2) (3)

100.0000 951.9

I

Ageadjusted

~eath rate

(4)

730.9

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

lFOf all ages, the difference is cokmn 3 minus CCIIWMI4.

‘For the age group,the difference is the 1950 percent distribution (column

distribution (COIIIUUI2) times the 1950 death rate (column 3) times 0.01.

‘Far the age group,the difference is the 1960 percent diatribution (column

distribution (column 2) times the 1960 death rate (column 3) times 0.01.

4For the age group,the difference is the 1969 percent distribution (column

distributim (column 2) times the 1969 death rate (colums 3) times 0.01.

‘The 1940 population ia used as the standard (appendix I).

Difference:

ieaths er

100,0004;

(5)

1+221.0

4+4.2

4+0.6

4+1.5

4-1.6

4-6.6

4-7.9

4-2.3

4+16.6

4+40.3

4+106.9

4+69.0

percent

of

difference

(6)

+100.0

+1.9

+0.3

to.7

-0.7

-3.0

-3.6

-1.0

+7.5

+1s.2

+48.4

+31.2

2)

2)

2)

mi.nua

minus

minus

the

the

the

1940

1940

1940

percent

percent

percent

This curve, starts with a high rate at ages under 1

year (2,148.0 deaths per 100,000 for 1969).

Then it drops for ages 1-4 years (to 85.0 deaths

per 100,000 for 1969) and 5-9 years (to 42.7

deaths per 100,000 for 1969) and continues

downward to its Iowest leveI for ages 10-14

years (to 41.6 deaths per 100,000 for 1969).

Thereafter the curve rises steeply with advance

in age (to 2,051.2 deaths per 100,000 at ages

60-64 years for 1969). The rate does not surpass

the high IeveI at ages under 1 year until ages

65-69 years. For the latter 5-year age group the

1969 rate was 3,055.7 deaths per 100,000, and

for the succeeding age group (70-74 years) it was

4,636.2 deaths per 100,000.

For 1961, 6.3 percent of all deaths occurred at ages under 1 year (107,956 deaths out

of 1,701,522). By 1969 thk figure had fallen to

3.9 percent (75,073 deaths at ages under 1 year

mIItof a total of 1,921,990).

GROWING GAP BETWEEN CRUDE

AND AGE-ADJUSTED DEATH RATES

A glance backward to 1940 shows that the

@P between fie actu~ cmde death rate and the

age-adjusted death rate (the rate adjusted to the

age composition of the 1940 population) widened during 1940-69 (figure 1). An examination

of the trends of the components of these two

sets of rates shows clearly that tils rapid decrease in the age-adjusted death rate relative to

the decrease in the crude death rate resulted primarily from the increasing proportion during

1940-69 of older people in the population.

The upwwd trend that began about 1920

in the proportion of people 65 years and over in

the population of the death-registration States

continued through 1933, the year irs which

Texas, the last of the first 48 States to be admitted, entered the death-registration area; and the
trend remained upw~d for the United States

through 1933-69. The proportion of persons 65

years and over doubled between 1920 and

1969–rising from 4.8 percent for 1920 to 9.6

percerit for 1969.

Between 1960 and 1969 there were irtcreases in the proportion of people in most age

groups over 45 years, resulting in part from the

decline in the birth rate and from the decline in

the death rate for older persons (table B). As

shown below the proportion of cl-ddren under

10 years of age decreased from 21.75 percent

for 1960 to 19.20 percent for 1969.

I I

Year Percent

and age Numbe~ of total

in years population

-.hdy 1,1969

Totalunder 10 . 38,785,000 19.20

Under I.... 3.495,000 1.73

1-4 . . . . . 14,463,000 7.16

5-9 . . . . . 20,627,000 10.31

By 1950 the difference between the crude .

death rate and the age-adjusted death rate was

122.3 deaths per 100,000 population (table B).

The three age groups of people 65 yearn and

over contributed 74.6 percent to this difference:

65-74 years, 23.2 percent; 75-84 years, 33.9 percent; and 85 years and over, 17.5 percent. Inasmuch as the death rates for these three age

groups declined between 1940 and 1950 while

the proportions of persons in these age groups

increased appreciably, the contribution from

these age groups to the enlargement during this

period of the difference between the crude and

age-adjusted death rates is attributable ent.irelY

to the increased proportions of the population

in these age groups.

By 1960 the difference b=tween the crude

death rate and the age-adjusted death rate had

grown stilI larger-to 193,8 deaths per 160,000

population; and by 1969 the difference had

reached 221.0 deaths per 100,000. To thk difference for 1969 the age groups 65-74, 75.84,

and 85 years and over contributed, respectively,

18.2 percent, 48.4 percent, and 31.2 percent,

for a total of 97.8 percent of the difference,

Again, inasmuch as the death rates for these

three age groups for 1969 were lower than the

corresponding death rates for 1940, this enlargement from 1940 to 1969 of the difference between the crude and age-adjusted death rates

that was contributed by these age groups is attributable entirely to the increased proportions

of the population in these age groups.

TRENDS OF AGE-ADJUSTED DEATH RATES

BY COLOR AND SEX

For both white male and white femsde persons the gap between the absolute values of the

unadjusted death rate and the age-adjusted death

rate widened during 1950-69, reflecting primarily the increasing proportion of older men and

women in the white population (table C and figure 5). Both the absolute and relative differences

for 1969 between the adjusted and unadjusted

death rates for white persons were markedly

greater for female than for male persons. This

reflected both the larger proportion of white

women in the oIder age groups and the greater

reduction in their death rate during 1940-69.

For both sexes among white persons the

age-adjusted rate remained above the-unadjusted

rate until the late 193 O’s, and thereafter the adjusted rate dropped below the unadjusted rate.

This reflected primarily the fact that until the

year of the crossover the proportion of white

people in the older age groups was smaller than

the corresponding proportion in the total population for 1940, and that since the year of the

crossover, the proportion of people in the older

age groups has been greater than the proportion

in the total population for 1940,

The pattern for male and female persons of

races other than white differed from that for

white male and female persons. The unadjusted

death rates for both sexes among races other .

than white remained lower than their ageadjusted death rates throughout 1900-69. This

was so primarily because the proportion of per12
mu

r

mm I.&k

803

tm~15.X7 lSW 1012 1S18 12X 1250 7936 1242 124 19W 1930 1266 1972

YfAR

400

t

3rm I I I I I I I I I I I I

t O 192+ 19i2 f018 1924 1920 1226 1942 19$0 1254 1980 192”3 1W2

YEA8

4,0W

2,CUI

1.rmo

“903

800

100

m

m

4CU

302

1

AU Other Male

I I I I [ I I I I I I I

!2(6 1812 1918 1224 iEQO 1236 1242 1948 19541980 7986 19X

WAR

— Aw.Ad,uXed

,.,,,,,s, ““aqmd

Wrm r All OUW Female

woo 1-

700

6K!

F

500

r

40D —

3001I I I I I 1 I I 1 I I I

1900 19W 1912 1910 1924 1930 1236 1942 lW 19s4 1% 1968 1972

YEAR

Figure 5. Death rates and age-adjusted death rates, by color and sex: deatfwegist ration States., 1900-32, and United States,

1933-s9.

13
Table C. Age-adjusted death rates for d&c=&aes, by color and sex: United states,

Year

1969------

1968------

1967------

1966------

1965------

1964------

19631-----

19621-----

1961------

1960------

1959------

1958------

1957-----

1956------

1955------

1954------

1953------

1952------

1951------

19502-----

Total White All other

Both Male Female :::~ Male Female Both

sexes sexes

Male Female

Rate per 100,000 population

730.9

746.7

728.7

745.1

741.8

741.6

758.6

746.3

735.5

760.9

750.9

764.6

776.3

763.3

764.6

763.2

804.7

815.8

829.1

841.5

945.0

962.8

936.6

952.5

943.9

937.9

956.4

935.2

919.9

949.3

932.4

944.0

955.6

937.4

934.3

928.5

975.2

982.1

993.2

1,001.6

548.4

561.9

549.9

565.3

565.7

569.2

584.2

578.2

570.2

590.6

586.0

600.9

611.5

602.6

606.9

609.0

644.7

658.9

673.2

688.4

694.4

708.6

694.7

709.2

707.2

707.2

721.5

711.6

703.9

727.0

718.5

730.5

741.3

730.7

732.7

730.1

767.7

777.0

790.2

800.4

904.5

921.1

900.9

915.2

909.3

903.9

920.5

902.9

891.0

917.7

902.1

912.4

922.9

907.5

905.0

897.2

939.3

944.4

956.5

963.1

Ii II

516.3

527.6

518.1

531.2

531.7

534.7

546.2

541.7

536.6

555.0

551.9

564.7

574.5

567.6

572.8

574.2

606.8

619.1

632.6

645.0

1,046.2

1,077.3

1,017.9

1,051.1

1,033.9

1,031.2

1,061.5

1,025.7

999.8

1,046.1

1,026.0

1,060.1

1,082.8

1,048.3

1,044.7

1,055.5

1,139.7

1,169.6

1,185.7

1,225.7

1,300.1

1,330.5

1,243.3

1,271.2

1,238.2

1,221.8

1,248.3

1,195.1

1,157.9

1,211.0

1,186.9

1,216.2

1,239.8

1,193.1

1,187.5

1,202.2

1,297.1

1,325.1

1,327.9

1,358.5

825;5

858.6

820.7

:;;.:

860:0

894.9

873.8

855.1

893.3

877.5

917.5

938.1

912.1

909.9

918.2

989.1

1,021.7

1,049.5

1,095.7

1

Figures by color exclude data for residents of New Jersey because this State did

not2require reporting of the item for these years.

Figures based on enumerated population adjusted for age bias in the population of

races other than white.

sons of races other tkan white in the older age

groups continued to be smaller thantheproportion at these ages in the total population for

1940.

For male persons of races other than white

the two rates (adjusted and unadjusted for age)

moved slowly closer together from about 1924

to 1956. Between 1956 and 1961,dunngwbich

period both the adjusted and unadjusted death

rates continued to decline, the difference between these two rates tended to level off. But

since 1961 the gap between these rates has been

widening, as a result of a sharp upturn in the ageadjusted death rate. Thk upturn resulted primarily from the st=ing increases-in the death rates

for men of races other than white in the age

groups between 15 and 84 years that occurred

between 1961 and 1969:

Death rate psr

Aue 100,000 POPU Iation Percent

in years

I

change

1961 1969

15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

65-64

65-74

75-84

. . . . 207.7 303.5 +46.1

. . . . 384.7 516.0 +34.1

. . . . 723.3 935.0 +29.3

. . . . 1,474.6 1,687.0 +14.4

. . . . 2,995.9 3,252.8 + 8.6

. . . . 5,615.6 6,6!s4.5 +18.5

. . . . 7,818.4 8,407.8 + 7.5

Because the unadjusted death rate for the

years 1961-69 for men of races other than white

was nearly stable, it fails to suggest this steep

upturn in mortfllty for these men in the age

groups from 15 through 84. The reason for the

stability of the unadjusted death rate is that

I

,

I

I

I

14
these rises in the age-specific death rates were

offset by appreciable decreases in the proportions of men of races other than white in each of

these age groups except 15-24 and 75-84 years

during 1961-69.

The percent increases between 1961 and

1969 for six of the 10 leading causes of death

for male persons of races other than white are

shown below.

Age-adjusted death

Cause of death rste per

100,000 population PerSent

change

1961 1969

1

Malignant rmoplasms

Accidents . . .

Homicide. . . .

Cirrhosis of liver .

Diabetes mellitus . I

%!%UT!-

167.9 194.9 +23.4

95.1 1183. +25.0

41.5 72.4 +74.5

15.9 31.4 +97.5

14.9 21.3 +43.0

11.6 15.7 +36.5

For female persons of races other than

white both the age-adjusted and the unadjusted

death rates were in general downward during

1936-69 (figure 5). These two rates moved relatively close together dm-ing the latter half of the

1950’s and 1960’s, reflecting the fact that the

percentage distribution of female persons of

races other than white came to resemble more

closely over the years the percentage distribution of the total pops.dation in 1940.

There were appreciable downturns in mortality for female persons of races other than

white during 1960-69 for infants and for the

foIlowing age groups (in years): 1-4,5-14,45-54,

55-64, and 75-84, as shown in figure 3B. But the

lowering of mortality at these ages was offset in

part by marked increases during the 1960’s in

the death rate at ages 15-24 and 65-74 years.

The mortality trends for the first six of the

10 leading causes of death in 1969 for female

persons of races other than white were downward between 1950 and 1969. These six causes

were diseases of heart, malignant neoplasms, cer-.

ebrovascukw dkeases, accidents, certain causes

of mortalky in early infancy, and influenza and

pneumonia. For the remaining four of the 10

Ieadmg causes the mortality trend between 1950

and 1969 for these persons was upward. These

four causes were diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis of

the liver, homicide, and congenital anomalies.

SEX DIFFERENTIALS

FOR MORTALITY BY AGE

The 1969 death rate for the total male population (1,097.6 per 100,000 population) was

1.35 times the corresponding rate for the total

female population (813.1 deaths per 100,000

population) (table 2). This mortality sex ratio

for 1969 did not differ appreciably from that

for 1960 (with a ratio of 1.36) or for 1950 (with

a ratio of 1.34). For each of these 3 years the

mortality sex ratio varied widely by age with a

major peak at ages 20-24 years (table 3 and figure 6). This peak ratio increased from 1.93 for

1950 to 2?.57for 1960, and to 3.03 for 1969.

For white people the largest mortality sex

differential also occurred at ages 20-24 years.

The ratio of the death rate at these ages for the

male population over the corresponding rate for

the female population increased from 2,17 for

1950 to 2.76 for 1960, and to 3.08 for 1969. A

pronounced secondary peak in the ratio of the

death rate for the white male population over

the corresponding rate for the white female population occurred for the age group 60-64 years–

with a ratio of 2.24 for 1969 (table 3 and figure

6). The mortaEty curves for the sex ratio for

white persons was a.ko bimodal for 1960 and

1950, but for these years the secondary pe.k

occurred for the next lower age group (55-59

years).

For people of races other than whke the

peak ratio of the death rate (at ages 20-24 years)

for male persons over the corresponding rate for

female persons started at a lower level but increased more steeply than that for their white

counterparts-from 1.44 for 1950 to 2.02 for

1960, and to 2.90 for 1969.

The principal causes of this excess mortality for the male population are summarized by

age for both white men and men of races other

than white in an earlier report.3 Additional information concerning the specific causes that

contributed the most to this unfavorable sex differential for men is presented in a forthcoming

report.4

.,

15
4.00 — 400—

MORTALITY SEX RATIO

All mm

ma —

white All other

[~ ;/”: :,+;; &

.S.

0.50 - 050 — 050 -

0 I I I J 0 I I I I o I I I I

Undw ~24 S5 and 6M4 ~er

Under

‘1 2&24 85 and WS4 -,

Under

1

2B24 85 md

1

6W ~~,

AGE IN YEARS

1W9 —

[

0.50

0.

Under

—

:4:

0.50

0x;: — 050

D

—‘q 3034

25 and Undmr

1

3F34 85 md Under

1

3W4 66 md

over wer 1 war

AGE IN YEARS

Figure 6. Mortality sex and color ratios, by age: United Stat% 1950, 1960, and 196S.

COLOR DIFFERENTIALS It would be incorrect to conclude from

FOR MORTALITY BY AGE

Both Sexesby Age

The 1969 death rate for persons of races

other than white was 959.7 deaths per 100,000,

and that for white persons, 950.8; this gives a

color ratio of 1.01. In other words, the death

rate for 1969 for the other-than-white population was 1.01 times the corresponding rate for

the white population. For 1960 the corresponding ratio was 1.06, and for 1950, 1.18 (table 3

and figure 6).

these three summary figures that the gaps between the high age-specific death rates for people of races other than white and the lower agespecific death rates for white people were almost

closed during 1950-69.

Although there was some reduction between 1950 and 1969 in excess mortality for

people of races other than white, for most age

groups large mortality differentials still persisted .

for 1969 (table 3 and figure 6). The reduction

represented by these three summary figures is

attributable in part to the changing age composition of the population, primarily to the in- “

creased proportion of white people at ages 65

I

16. I

I
years and over. The presence of these older people with their high risk of death tended to raise

the total death rate for white people. In turn

this higher rate for white peopIe helped to narrow the gap between their rate and that for persons of races other than white.

For 1969 excess mortality was very large

for a number of age groups of people of races

other th~ white (table 3 and figure 6). For the

age grou.ps under 75 years the 1969 mortality

color ratios ranged from 1.37 for the age group

5-9 years to 3.05 for the age group 30-34 yearn.

For the total population (and for each sex)

the mortality color ratio declined from the high

at ages 30-34 years with advancing age. Thk was

true for each of the 3 study years (1950, 1960,

and 1969). Beginning with ages 75-79 years, for

both men and women, the mortality color ratio

dropped below 1.00 and continued to decline

for the remaining years of life (see section, “Individual Cohorts for Older Ages,” beIow).

Between 1950 and 1960 excess mortality

for people of races other than white was reduced

substantially for every age group under 75 years

except three (under 1 year, 60-64, and 70-74

years); but between 1960 and 1969 there was a

steep rise in mortality for people of races other

than white. This steep upturn in mortaIity for

the other-than-white population accounts in

great part for the fact that for every age group

from 15 to 75 yearn except one (50-54 years)

the mortality color ratio was higher for 1969

than for 1960.

But this increase between 1960 and 1969

in excess mortzility for people of races other

than white was not large enough for most age

groups to completely counterbalance the effect

of the decrease in excess mortabty that was accomplished between 1950 and 1960. As a result

far every age group under 65 years (except

35-39 yearn) the mortality color ratio was lower

for 1969 than for 1950.

Male Population by Age

For male persons of races other than white

the 1950 death rate was 1.15 times the corresponding rate for white male persens. This ratio

dropped to 1.05 for 1960 and to 1.04 for 1969.

For the latter year the death rate for male persons of rices other than white was 1,132.8

deaths per 100,000, and that for white male persons was 1,092.7.

It might be mentioned for the male p opulation, as was done above for the total population,

that it would be incorrect to conclude from

these three summary figures (1.04 for 1969,

1.05 for 1960, and 1.15 for 1950) that the gaps

between the high age-specific death rates for the

other-than-white male population and the lower

age-specific death rates for the white male population were all but closed during 1950-69. The

male population of races other than white did

experience appreciable decreases in excess mortality between 1950 and 1960 for most age

groups, but they experienced increases in excess

mortality between 1960 and 1969.

The net result of these changes between

1950 and 1960 and between 1960 and 1969 was

an increase in excess mortality between 1950

and 1969 for each 5-year age group in the productive years of life from 25 to 50 years of age,

and for the age groups 10-14, 65-69, and 70-74

years.

For the male population the mortality

color ratio peaks at ages 30-34 yeas for each of

the years 1950, 1960, and 1969 (table 3 and

figure 6). The color ratio at these ages increased

substantially between 1960 and 1969—from

2.47 to 3.20.

Female Population by Age

For t~e total female population the color

differential for mortality decreased from a ratio

of 1.24 for 1950 to 1.09 for 1960, and to 0.98

for 1969.

It should not be concluded from the dropping of the mortality color ratio from 1.24 for

1950 to 0.98 for 1969 that most of the agespecific death rates for the female population of

races other than white fell below the corresponding age-specific death rates for the white

female population. In fact, for every 5-year age

group under 75 years the age-specific death rates

for 1969 for the other-than-white female population are considerably higher than those for the

whke female population—with mortality color

ratios ranging from 1.38 at ages 5-9 years to

2.98 at ages 30-34 years (table 3 and figure 6).

Nevertheless, both between 1950 and 1960

and between 1960 and 1969 the female population of races other than white did experience

r

17
appreciable decreases in excess mortfllty for

most age groups. In other words, for the femaIe

population of races other than white the entire

period 1950-69 was in general favorable: for

them a decrease in excess mortali$ occurred for

every 5-year age group under 60 years. The mortality color ratio for the peak ages 30-34 years

decreased for the female population from 1950

through 1969–from 3.55 to 2.98.

Individual Cohorts for Older Ages

These mortality color ratios are based on

the death rates for specified calendar yehrs. Inasmuch as these death statistics represent the differing mortality experiences for an admixture of

cohorts born in different time periods, they may

not represent what actually was the mortalky

experience of auy cohort of individual from

bh-th through the successive ages over their lifetimes. Cohort or generation mortality data are,

however, representations of what actually happens in life. And when the mortality color ratios

for any separate cohort (a group of persons born

during the same period-taken to be 5 years for

this particular dk.cussion) are examined over successive decades, the pattern of the dropping of

the death rate for people of other races below

that for white people at about ages 75-79 years

is found to occur for both men and women.

Following are shown for six cohorts of male persons and six cohorts of female persons, born at

5-year intervals between 1865 and 1894, the

ratio of the death rate for persons of races other

than white over the corresponding rate for white

persons, at ages 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and 80-84

years.

Male

65-69. . . . .

70-74. . . . .

7579. . . . .

80%4. . . . .

m

6569. . . . .

70-74. . . . .

75-79. . . . .

80-S4 . . . . .

1.24 1.11

1.10 1.09

0.94 0.89

– 0.74

1.55 I 1.42

1.30 1.28

0.98 1.00

– 0.78

1.29

1.07

0.86

0.68

1.84

1.18

0.93

0.72

1.16

1.01

0.88

0.77

1.41

1.16

0.95

0.76

—

hmt

1870-

1874

1.08

0.99

0.91

0.70

1.21

1.01

0.96

0.84

—

1865-

1869

1.15

1.00

0.86

0.69

1.29

1.06

0.83

0.6s

For each of the 12 cohorts the dropping of

the death rate for persons of races other than

white below the corresponding rate for white

persons with rare exceptions does not occur until ages 75-79 years. At ages 80-84 years the

death rate for persons of races other than white

drops even further below that for white persons

than at ages 75-79 years.

The above data for these 12 cohorts indicate that for both age groups 75-79 years and

80-84 years the gap between the death rate for

other persons and for white persons narrowed

during 1944-69.

.... .

For cohorts of women 75-79 years born in

1885-89 and 1890-94 the ratio of the age.

specific death rate for women of races other

than white over the corresponding rate for white

women was, respectively, 1.00 and 0.98.

The findings of a number of studies including those of Rosenwaike5 and Harnbright6

suggest that part of this dropping of the death

rate of persons other than white below that for

white persons at advanced ages may result from

an artifact-namely the misreporting of age for

older persons either in the decennial censuses or

on the death certificate, or both in the censuses

and on the death certificate. This crossover at

advanced ages of the death rate for persons of

races other than white beIow that for white persons occurs with great regularity, For example,

it shows up clearly for both men and women in

each of the four marital status groups-single,

married, widowed, and divorced.7 It also shows

up for a number of causes of death.q

SUMMARY

The crude death rate in the United States

had a clearly downward trend in the first half of

the century. It reached its low in 1954 and began

to level off. Except for years of pronounced irrfluenza epidemics the rate during 1954-69 was

relatively stable. Thk stability resulted from offsetting effects of important changes in the patterns of vital events in the United States.

Effect of Changesin Death Ratesand Age

Composition on 1969 Crude Death Rate

The total effect of the changes between

1960 and 1969 in the population and age1

I

I
speeific death rates for age groups under 1, 5-9,

10-14, 15-24, and 45-64 years tended to lower

the crude death rate for 1969 by about 83.8

deaths per 100,000; and the total effect of the

● changes between 1960 and 1969 in the population and age-specific death rates for age groups

1-4, 25-44, and 65 years and over tended to raise

the crude death rate for 1969 by 80.2 deaths per

100,000. The difference between these offsetting amounts approximates the difference between the crude death rate for 1960 (954.7

deaths per 100,000) and that for 1969 (951.9

deaths per 100,000).

On the one hand the following major

changes in death rates and age composition of

the population during the 1960’s tended to raise

the 1969 crude death rate to a higher level than

it would otherwise have been:

Decrease of 10.8 percent in number of

children at ages 1-4 years, with &eir low

risk of mortality (85.0 deaths per

100,000 for 1969)

Increase of 14.7 Dercent in number of

persons 45-64 ye~rs of age, with their

relatively high risk of mortality ( 1,146.2.

deaths per 100,000 for 1969)

● Increase of 17.6 percent in number of

persons 65 years and over, with their

very high risk of mortality (6,084.0

deaths per 100,000 for 1969)

● Increase of 22.1 percent in the death

rate for young people at ages 15-24 years

(from 106.3 deaths per 100,000 for

1960 to 129.8, for 1969)

● Increase of 6.0 percent in the death iate

for people at ages 25-44 years (from

225.0 deaths per 100,000 for 1960 to

238.5, for 1969)

On the other hand the following important

changes in death rates and age composition of

the population during the 1960’s tended to

lower the 1969 crude death rate below what it

would otherwise have been:

. Decrease of 15 percent in the number of

infants, with their high risk of mortality

(2,}48.0 deaths per 100,000 for 1969)

. Increase of 11.4 percent in the number

of ebiidren at ages 5-9 years, with their

low risk of mortality (42.7 deaths per

100,000 for 1969)

. Q Increase of 22.3 percent in children at

ages 10-14 years, with an even lower risk

of mortality (41.6 deaths per 100,000

for 1969)

. Increase of 42.4 percent in the number

of young people at ages 15-24 years

(from 24,020,004 for 1960 to

34,214,000 for 1969), who, despite the

rise in their death rate, still have a comparatively low risk of mortalky

. Increase of 1.4 percent in the number of

people at ages 25-44 years (from

46,899,662 for 1960 to 47,566,000 for

1969), who also, despite a rise in their

death rate, still have a relatively low risk

of mortality

. Decrease of 20.3 percent in the death

rate at ages under 1 year (from 2,696.4

deaths per 100,000 for 1960 to 2,148.0

for 1969)

. Decrease of 22.1 percent in the death

rate for children at ages 1-4 years (from

109.1 de~ths per 100,000 to 85.0 for

1969)

. Decrease of 12.9 percent in the death

rate for children 5-9 years of age (from

49.0 deaths per 100,000 for 1960 to ‘

42.7, for 1969)

. Decrease of 5.5 percent in the death rate 1

for children 10-14 years of age (from

44.0 deaths per 100,000 for 1960 to

41.6, for 1969)

. Decrease of 2.8 percent in the death rate

for people 45-64 years of age (from

1,178.9 per 100,000 for 1960 to

1,146.2, for 1969)

● Decrease of 0.3 percent in the death rate

for people at ages 65 years and over

(from 6,099.5 deaths per 100,000 for

1960 to 6,084.0 for 1969) ,

19
Color Differentials for Mortality

There was some reduction between 1950

and 1969 in the excess mortality for people of

races other than white, but for most age groups

large mortality differentials still persisted for

1969. During the 1950’s there was a narrowing

of the gap between the higher death rates for

people of races other than white and the lower

death rates for white people for almost every age

group under 75 years. But during the 1960’s this

favorable trend was reversed primarily because

of a substantial rise in mortality for a number of

age groups of the male population of races other

than white. As a result of these changes the maIe

population of races other than white had greater

excess mortality for 1969 than for 1960 for every 5-year age group under 60 years except for

the age group under 5 years. In contrast the female population of races other than white had

smaller excess mortality for 1969 than for 1960

for every 5-year age group under 65 years, except the age group 15-19 years. For the total

population and for both male and female people

%; mortalky color ratio peaks at ages‘30~34

years and then declines with advancing age,

dropping below 1.00 beginning with ages 75-79

years.

Cohort analysis shows that the pattern of

dropping of the death rate for persons of other

races below that for wkite persons at ages 75-79

years occurs for both male and female persons.

But this differential, which may result from misreporting of age, appears to be disappearing.

Sax Differentials for Mortality

The mortality sex ratio, for the population

as a whole, did not change appreciably over the

study years: for 1950, 1960, and 1969 the death

rates for the male population were, respectively,

1.34, 1.36, and 1.35 times the corresponding

rates for the female population. But for the ages

at which the mortalky sex ratio peaked (20-24

years), there were considerable increases: from

1.93 for 1950 to 2.57 for 1960, and to 3,03 for

1969.

These increases in the mortality sex ratio

reflect the upturn in the course of mortality for

men during the 1960’s. Contributing to this unfavorable trend for men were increases k the

death rates for external causes (homicides,

accidents-especially motor vehicle accidents—

and suicides) and for diseases. Among the

diseases with large increases were malignant neoplasms; diabetes mellitus; bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma; and cirrhosis of liver, Other

studies in this series analyze in detail the causes

for the rise in mortality for men.s 14

20
Ipedmal security Agency: Excess Deaths $om Chronic

Disease During Injkenza Epidemics, by S. D. Colliis and J.

Lehmann. Public Health Monograph No. 10. PHS Pub. No.

213. Public Health Service. Washington. U.S. Government

Printing Office, Feb. 1953.

20 ffice of the Secretaqv The influenza epidemic of January-April 1963, by J. Klebba and R. Q. Robinson. Health, Education, and Welfare Indicators. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Washington. Oct. 1963. pp. xxi-xxt%i.

3Nationd Center for Health Statistics: Leading components of upturn in mortalky for mem United States,

1952-67. Vital and Health Statistics. Series 20-No. 11. DHEW

Pub. No. (HSM) 72-1008. Health Services and Mental Heahh

Administration. Washington. .U.S. Government Printing Office,

Sept. 1971.

4Natio”d Center for Health Statistics:” Mortality trends

for leading causes of death: United States, 1950-69. Vital and

Health .%ztistics. Series 20-No. 16. Health Resources Administration, DHEW, Rockv&, Md. In preparation.

5Rosenwaike, L: On measuring the extreme aged in the

population. ]. Am. Mat. Assoc. 63(321):29-40, Mar. 1968.

6National “Center for Health Statistics: Comparability of

age on the death certificate and matching census record, United

States, May-August 1960. Vital and Health Statistics. PHS Pub.

No. 10003eries 2-No. 29. Public Health Service. Washington.

U.S. Government Printing Office, June 1968.

7Naticmal Center for Health Statistics Mortality from selected causes by marital status, United States-Parts A and B.

Vital and Health Statistics. PHS Pub. No. 1000-Series 20-No. 8.

Public Health Service. Washington. U.S. Government Printing

Office, Dec. 1970.

8crw&, H.: The Elements of Probability Theoty, and

Some of Its Applications. New York. John Wiley& Sons, 1955.

—000

21
LIST OF DETAILED TABLES

Page

Table 1. Death rates for all causes, by bkh cohort, color, sex, and age at death: United

States, 5-year intervals during 1934 -69----------------------------------------- Z3

2. &Oh6~tes for all causes, by 10-year age groups, color, and sex:United States,

------------------------- .------------------------ ----------------------- 24

3.. Mortality s= and color ratios, by age: United States, 1950, 1960, and 1969----- 30

22
—

color,m,,

id Ilgm :,1

,1.,,,1, i,,

yem

Total &

1G.19..—--—

20.24. .. ... .

~&2g-..—

90.94—---

sG-9%---

40.44––.–

45-19.-—

60.34—-.

65.59.—

61J.G6Ma...—

7U4---

76.79.- . . .

808—

\~

16.1 9..—-

20.24---

g&*9..-_

w..7.1——.——

w..99 ------

.40.W.. -----

464!L....—

60.64----

G5.5%------

Go.w----

GbG9-

70.7-

76.79--------

Bwlp-----

All otlm,

~

lb. L%.——

20.2-

2G-2w..——

30.3k-—

95.99—-

40.44———

4L49.—

E.O.b6W!9---

60.6 &..—

6&G9-—

70.’7&—

7ii.79——

80.8Jr—.—

1~

-

15.1 9—-

20.2,-

26.29-——

90.9&---

96.99.——

W44----

.M4w..—

60.51—---

66.59—.

G0.6-

65.G9——

79.74---

76.79————

808-

~

Imlm

1G.1 9----

20.24-——

26.29—-

911.94——

96.99—-

40.L-

.wm..——

60.54-——

65.59—

60.64-.—

GM9--

72-74--

7&79___

8il.84----

TJI!c 1, Dmth ra,cs for .II1 cnums. by hkth “+-t, color, %.x, and +!. ., duck United S.,,,, 5-ycar nmt’!v.![, durnw 19’44.69

[~- P“ ,00.000 F=T”lml.” h w=.fi~d.s ..1.- -P1

.

150

154

—

+.7

,*.;

15.1

i8.:

?+.

—

—

45.

42

—

8.5

7.6

7.7

2,3

,0.1

‘4.?

,0.!

&.1

19.1

55A

—

—

m.

&4

—

?8

7.1

k.6

5.6

H

7.3

27

5.2

9.9

38

1,1

19.!

!7.!

12.(

—

1!

1:

i.

i.

1.

,,

5

>

&

1

9

1

9

;

o

8

[

[

17

—

30-

34

—

1.8

2.7

9.4

09

4.0

!2 I

.>

;.1

82f

,5. I

12.~

81

,5.[

11..

18.1

i5.:

is..

m!

)3:

;2,!

31

!5.

00.

93.

35.

—

925.

929

—

57.9

519

373

64,5

!+2 4

,85.2

[87 0

176.2

158.2

[76.2

!56.5

K?45

192.1

%81.5

&o1.9

Ki2.9

$78..!

180,9

92.2

83.4

75.;

101.C

152.(

!40.5

297.(

291:

2m,

311,!

446,’

G13,(

92&

924

17%8

!53.4

1638

1685

!$0.3

1686

i81.1

177.E

9+8.!

171.C

[81 2

!50.!

#l 9.(

684.!

382.<

!82.4

#2.s

453.!

! 89.4

9.!4 :

+19.1

12+.1

1s3.:

101.(

103.:

145.:

284.

365.:

437,

473.

ml.

341.

442.$

629>

848.

915-

919

2240

2+7.2

298.0

B34.7

239.5

362.4

5770

B91.4

219 s

2339

2646

2043

257.5

412.0

688.0

107.6

465.1

630.5

586.4

559.2

565.1

867.2

277.9

002.4

163.9

170.2

151.2

1s8.6

157.5

2222

.7G66

5508

.+96 1

607.1

509.2

458.5

480.7

659.2

86s.9

,172.2

PC..(I d b,rtl, of..lmrt

91%

914

330.1

?89.7

294.5

298.8

3851

581.6

915.2

S639

300.9

256.1

291.6

310.1

424.0

697.0

,132.8

,773.5

8196

7922

797.0

1424

8907

,255.2

,8116

,7890

2452

211.8

2@2,5

197.7

250.6

361.7

5b2.c

818.:

746. I

713!

699.!

632.:

740.!

927.!

.333.;

,69!2 !

?05-

309

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187.7

WI.7

i04.7

127.4

!826

)51.2

129,8

%14 4

5947

$84.1

711,2

161 G

3nl.1

151.G

366 ?

>67.4

B95.$

059.1

304 ?

B49.C

6272

843.?

299 (

255.!

27.+.(

293 !

882.1

558:

830:

230 !

832.

839.

800.1

955.!

072.:

407..

790.,

524:

300.

>0+

H.6,7

k51 6

;41 ,7

7038

374.3

386.3

3666

355.7

991 ii

4200

5515

7810

1564

765.0

693.8

010.8

195.0

171.2

3508

610,5

037.5

614,7

763,’3

589.7

3286

3s0.2

9686

452.3

605.1

835.5

2604

,965.6

,0472

,009.6

,2446

,402.9

,G!18.3

,029.5

,919.5

.1415

895-

099

—

531 I

616.(

768.[

054 (

406 !

092:

141 !

636:

498.

613:

8s7.:

229.;

753 (

7052

104 I

[ 06.!

,381.1

,540.

,759.

302.

,701.

,779

,877

,329.

398

440

529.

680.

894

.341

,086,

,278.

,[ 29.

,359

,445.

,857.

,lwn.

,757

,954.

,310,

—

1890-

! 89+

725.5

884.3

1,192.5

.5869

116.1

1,112.9

L543.5

;,605.8

7166

928.1

1,331.1

1,9154

?,645 5

),988 5

;,875.9

3,5562

1,815.C

2,012.5

?,606 C

8,0841

9,9.794

*,929 I

6,467.(

6,027.?

535 [

640 t

824.1

1,056.;

1,.1111

2,172 I

3,363.1

5,300.1

1,543,

1,732.

2,199,’

2,4110:

2,938,:

‘3,’37 1.1

4,3G2J

5,170.

1885.

1889

995.0

1,288.0

1,751.4

2,334.4

3,1418

4,610.6

6,788.D

0,080.6

1,039.9

1,3789

2,052.5

2,846.7

9,9+3, 1

5,721.5

8,401,7

2,191,6

2,183.4

2,824.9

2,060.3

3,7284

4,S85 3

6,227.7

7,310.3

9,048.7

732.6

935.8

1,248.4

1,6424

2,289.7

3,5C28

5,599.7

8,9978

1.850.0

2,569.9

2,6994

3,176.9

3,!242.4

4,5640

5,61 7.(1

7,062.2

I 880-

1824

1,992.2

1,8535

2,466.2

3,251.1

4,685.9

7,100.3

0,739.0

1,4G08

2.050.0

2,899.8

3,9971

5.642.3

8,493.?

2,698.3

2,8698

3,4844

%606.8

5,1409

6,0157

7,2091

8,622.1

1,0+50

1,403.0

1,872.2

2,5481

3,7695

6,076.9

9,794.?

2,727.6

3,2523

3,2681

+,1 88,7

4,4462

6,670,4

7,007,5

1875-

1879

! ,937.5

2,659.7

3,569,5

5,1 30.+

7,214.6

1,413.9

2.! 08.6

2,962.8

+,115.4

5,958.0

8,400.8

%156.4

3,3635

4,1341

+,7 742

6,026 ?

7,4205

0,097.8

1,5279

2,140.9

2,908.8

4.316.6

6,287.1

0,4387

?,388.7

4,035.7

4,1091

5,0062

5,9474

7,9?64

1870.

1874

2,866.8

3,911.3

;,591 ,1

<,056.4

1,2280

3,141.2

$,416.1

6,2904

9,175.7

3,039.7

4,+2 1.9

4,7814

6,2540

8,9635

9,o878

2,3680

3,3226

4,9 (9.7

7,136.8

0,308.0

4,169.4

4,02n 9

4,963.2

6,823,0

6,6$4.0

1863.

1869

+,034.4

5,2131

8,585.5

1,639.8

4,4551

6,501.7

9,570.4

13,120.3

5.117.0

6,5229

8,226.9

9,1143

3.4920

5,3111

7,851.6

10,889.7

%5035

5,6250

6,5423

7,3?.1 3

22
,

Table 2. Death rates for all causes, by 10-year age groups, color, and sex: United States, 1950-69

Color, sex, and year

Total, botb sexes

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

1963----------------------------------------

1962----------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

Total, male

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

1963----------------------------------------

1962----------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

Total, female

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

1963----------------------------------------

1962----------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

lFigures

white.

951.s

965.7

935.7

951.:

943.2

939.6

961.2

945.0

929.5

954.7

938.6

950.8

958.6

935.1

930.4

919.0

959.0

961.4

966.7

963.8

1,097.6

1,114.3

1,081.7

1,097.6

1,088.4

1,082.8

1,108.4

1,088.2

1,073.0

1,104.5

1,084.4

1,096.7

1,108.1

1,082.5

1,076.4

1,065.3

1,112.0

1,111.9

1,114.s

1,106.1

813.1

824.o

796.1

810.8

803.3

801.3

819.1

806.5

790.4

809.2

797.1

809.0

813.2

791.6

788.2

776.S

810.4

815.0

821.9

823.5

Rate per

2,148.0

2,226.o

2,233.1

2,332.7

2,407.7

2,463.2

2,526.6

2>534.3

2,538.9

2,696.4

2,748.7

2,814.5

2,797.5

2,823.1

23848.5

2,928.2

3,076.2

3,207.7

3,234.4

3,299.2

2,424.6

2,515,8

2,516.2

2,626.8

2,713.0

2,771.8

2,858.1

2,869.1

2,862.7

3,059.3

3,105.8

3,163.9

3,156.7

3,201.3

3,213.8

3,308.3

3,478.9

3,613.2

3,665.2

3,728.0

1,859.2

1,923.4

1,938.0

2,026.9

2,089.4

2,141.0

2,180.6

2,186.5

2,201.5

2,321.3

2,379.9

2,452.5

2,425.2

2,431.7

2,469.4

2,534.7

2,659.0

2,786.8

2,789.0

2,854.6

100,000 population

85.(

86.L

86.:

93.:

92.$

96.1

99.5

9S.C

101.4

109.1

106.9

111.7

111.8

110.2

113.4

118.?

130.0

141.1

136.9

139.4

92.0

94.5

95.8

101.5

100.8

104.6

107.8

104.7

110.2

119.5

116.2

119.3

119.7

118.8

123.1

128.4

141.7

152.0

147.6

151.7

77.6

77.9

76.4

84.6

84.6

87.0

90.9

91.0

92,3

98.4

97.3

103.8

103.6

101.3

103.3

107.8

118.0

129.8

125.9

126.7

42.:

42.(

41.t

42.(

42.;

43.:

43.1

43.$

43.5

46.t

47.;

46.6

48.E

47.4

48,E

50.4

54..!

59.:

59.:

60.1

51.0

51.8

49.9

51.3

50.9

51.9

51.4

52.1

52.5

55.7

57.8

55.7

58.5

56.8

59.0

60.2

65.9

69.6

71.0

70.9

33.0

33.1

32.6

33.7

33.3

34.2

35.1

35.3

35.0

37.3

37.2

37.2

38.8

37.7

38.2

40.2

43.3

48.6

47.2

48.9

129.8

124.2

116,9

115.8

109.3

108.3

105.6

103.4

102.5

106.3

107.5

107,5

115.6

115.5

115.6

113.8

123.8

130.1

128.0

128.1

192.3

183.0

170.4

168.1

157.3

;::.:

146:9

146.7

152.1

154.0

154.6

165.2

167.3

165.8

163,7

176.4

180.6

173.2

167.9

68.8

66.8

64.5

64.3

61,5

62.2

61.9

60.6

59,0

61,3

62.1

61,8

68.0

66.1

67.9

67.5

75.3

83.4

85.2

89.1

25-34

years

158.S

157.3

;;:,:

151:6

152.1

148,6

145,3

143.5

146.4

147,8

147.4

;s2:;

149.6

153,2

162.7

172.7

176.6

178.7

216.5

213,2

204.7

203.1

198.4

198,3

191.8

185.7

;;;;:

189.4

188.0

193.5

191,6

191,8

196,2

206.4

215.6

218.2

216,5

103.0

103.3

102.1

106.8

106,3

~:i).;

106:2

104.8

106,6

107.8

108,4

113.8

108.4

109.4

112.3

121.4

132.1

137.3

142.7

based on enumerated pq.n.alaticmadjusted for age bias in the population of races other than
Table 2. Death rates for all causes,by 10-year age group% color,and sex United States,1950-69-Con.

Color, sex, and year

Total, both sexes

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964---,------------------------------------

1963----------------------------------------

1962----------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

Total, male

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

1963----------------------------------------

1962----------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------:-----------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951-------------------------------J--------

19501---------------------------------------

Total, female

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

1963----------------------------------------

1962----------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

195s----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

I I

322.4

320.8

310.6

310.6

307.5

306.1

303.2

298,2

292.5

299.4

293.9

298.9

307.1

300.9

306.8

309.8

332. o

343.9

353.6

358.7

410.8

406.5

394.3

392.3

385.2

384.3

3>7.4

371.2

366.2

372. S

367.8

373.1

3s1 .1

370.7

377.0

377.2

406.3

417.0

427.8

428.8

238.3

239.5

231.2

233.0

233.7

231. S

232.8

228. S

222.4

229.4

223.3

227.9

236.2

233.9

239.2

244.8

260.3

273.2

281.6

290.3

Rate

728.3

747.1

730.7

742.7

739.5

739.2’

747.9

741.3

731.6

756.0

743.3

753.5

764.9

746.8

756.3

776.2

817.2

833.9

847.2

853.9

962.7

984.2

963.5

979.1

970.1

965.8

981.1

971.5

955.9

y:;

977.1

987.6

964.1

973.9

987.1

1,038.1

1,054.5

1,061.8

1,067.1

I I

65-74 75-84 85 years

years years and over

per 100,000 population

1,677.5

1,724.3

1,674.0

1,699.7

1,694.5

1,697.4

1,726.3

1,692.8

1,674.3

1,735.1

1,711.7

1,739.8

1,780.6

1,744.0

1,729.7

1,737.4

1,838.5

1,859.9

1,881.2

1,901.0

2,708.5

2,783.7

2,730.4

2,806.6

2,768.9

2,781.9

2,864.8

2,833.3

2,792.2

2,871.8

2,856.5

2,940.2

3,000.7

2,956.1

2,978.0

2,979.1

3,139.9

3,164.0

3,213.4

3,333.2

6,632.9

6,829.2

6,687.9

6,964.3

6,998.5

7,043.5

7>350.5

7,328.4

7,275.6

7,633.1

7,551.0

7,738.9

7,781.6

7,750.5

7,785.5

7,625.9

S,064.8

8,081.8

8,296.7

8,399.6

‘Figures based on enumerated population adjusted for age bias in the population of races

white.

19,084.6

19,614,3

19,419.7

20,052.3

20,199.7

20,020.5

21,012.1

20,468.3

19,593.7

19,857.5

19,417.5

19,795.3

19,7S9.8

19,229.7

1s,9s3.3

18>157.5

19,187.3

19>056.6

19,75S.8

20,196.9

18,796.2

19,167.8

1S,855.7

19,506.2

19,526.4

19,381.9

20,141.1

19,597.2

1S,783.9

19,008.4

1s,681.4

19,103.3

19,151.0

1S,662.3

18,554.8

17,740.0

18,663.4

18,614.4

19,005.6

19,194.7

ther than

25
Table 2. Death rates for all causes, by 10-year age groups, color, and sex: United States, 1950-69-Con.

Color, sex, and year

White, bath sexes

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966-----------------------------------------

1965------J---------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

19632---------------------------------------

19622 ---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960------------------”----------------------

1959----------------------------------------

195s----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952-1--------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

Nhite, male

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

19632---------------------------------------

19622---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956-------:--------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

Nhite, female

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

19632---------------------------------------

196P ---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952-------------------------------,---------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

.11 ages Under 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-34

1 year years years years years

Rate per 100,000 population

75.9

76.3

76.4

81.7

S1.4

84.1

86.4

S6.3

89.8

95.2

93.3

97.9

98.2

97.4

100.1

105.1

116.0

125.3

121.4

124.1

82.0

S3.6

S4.9

89.6

89.3

92.2

94.4

92.7

98.6

104.9

101.2

105.8

105.5

105.7

109.6

114.6

126,4

135.3

131.2

135.5

69.6

68.7

67.4

73.4

73.1

75.5

78.0

79.8

80.7

85.2

85.0

89.7

90.5

88.8

90.3

95.2

105.1

114.8

111.2

112.2

39.6

39.9

39.1

40.1

39.6

40.5

40.7

41.4

41.8

43.9

45.0

44.4

45.9

44.8

46.4

47.s

51.9

56.3

55.5

56.4

47.8

48.5

47.3

4s.3

48.1

48.8

48.8

49.6

50.1

52.7

55.1

53.4

55.3

54.0

56.6

57.4

62.7

66.5

66.8

67.2

31.1

31.0

30.5

31.5

30.9

31.9

32.2

33.0

33.2

34.7

34.5

35.0

36.1

35.2

35.8

37.9

40.7

45.8

43.7

45.1

118.3

114.4

108.5

108,3

102.3

l:j,;

96:6

95.2

99.1

99.7

99.8

106.7

107.0

106.6

103.4

111.5

116.0

113.0

111.7

175.7

169.0

159.2

158.4

148.7

146.9

141.8

139,2

138.4

143,7

145,5

145,9

156,C

157.5

156.I

152,Z

163.?

166,1

158,5

152.4

62.t

60.8

58.8

58.7

56.C

56.7

56.?

54.?

52.4

54.5

54,6

54.7

59,1

58.5

59.2

57.C

63.2

69.4

69.5

71.5

130.4

128.0

125.1

~;:,g

127:7

125,4

123.8

121,2

123.6

125,0

123.7

12.8.3

125.9

126,9

129.1

136.6

144,3

148,4

148,3

17S,1

;;;,~

170:2

166,0

169,2

165.8

161,5

158,6

163,2

163,4

162.2

166,0

166,0

167,3

169,9

177,6

185.4

188.7

185,3

83,S

82.7

S1,7

86.7

86.0

87,0

85.7

86.8

84.7

85,0

87.5

86.2

91.7

87.1

S7.9

90,0

97.4

105.2

110,1

llZ,S

lFigures based on enumerated population adjusted for age bias in the population of races other than

i

whi e.

Figures by

porting of the

cOlOr exclude data for residents of New Jersey because this State did not require reitem for these years.

26
Tabl, .—————. 2. Death rates for all causes,by 10-year age groups,color,and Sex:United state% 1950-69‘con.

Color, sex, and year

White, both sexes

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964--~----’---------------------------------

19632---------------------------------------

19622---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

195s----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

White, male

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

:;;::---------------------------------------

----------------------------------------

19632---------------------------------------

19622---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

195s----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

White, female

1969----------------------------------------

196S----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

1963C---------------------------------------

19629---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956-------------------------T--------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-s4 S5 years

years years years years years and over

Rate per 100,000 populaticm

272.4

270.6

265.6

265.2

263.8

263.4

262.4

259.5

254.2

260.4

255.6

261.5

267.2

261.4

267.7

269.2

286.7

296.0

304.8

307.6

34s.3

345.8

340.6

339.5

335.8

335.s

334.2

331.3

325.7

332.6

328.7

336.6

341.9

333.0

33s.5

338.3

361.4

369.6

381.5

380.9

19s.9

19s.1

193.6

193.7

194.5

193.7

193.4

190.6

1s5.5

191.1

185.4

1s9.2

195.1

192.2

199.1

202.3

214.2

224.3

229.9

235.S

1,582.9

1,623.0

1,5S6.0

1,605.7

1,597.s

1,595.5

1,616,3

1,586.4

1,576.4

1,632.S

1,616.2

1,638.3

1,673,2

1,642.2

1,636.2

1,645.5

1,737.0

1>756.1

1,774.8

1,799.6

2,21s.s

2,269.6

2,220.4

2,248.1

2,222.5

2,208.2

2,228.5

2,179.0

2,162.8

2,225.2

2,195.2

2,212.s

2,251.1

2,201.0

2,175.2

2,170.7

2,282.4

2,289.4

2,2S9.4

2,304.4

1,009.5

1,038.1

1,009.3

1,018.9

1,024.2

1,030.5

1,049.2

1,035.8

1,029.8

1,078.9

1,073.0

1,097.3

1,125.5

1,109.6

1,119.4

1,137.s

1,205.9

1,232.C

1,265.1

1,293.8

3,5s4.0

3,6S7.0

3,614,2

3,695.8

3,667.1

3,670.3

3,751.6

3,6S2.1

3,639.1

3,739.s

3,686.4

3,757.8

3,831,0

3,752.5

3,758.3

3,739.s

3,ss4.3

3,889.2

3,955.1

4,023.1

4,891.7

5,029.7

4,893.7

4,979.4

4,929.5

4,891.2

4,9S2.1

4,839.3

4,740.3

4,848.4

4,731.1

4,7S8.2

4,863.7

4,726.7

4,698.7

4,645.S

4,771.5

4,751.2

4,827.2

4,S64.9

2,553.7

2,622.8

2,593.7

2,666.0

2,644.3

2,670.4

2,729.0

2,707.9

2,700.4

23779.3

2,775.1

2,S51.6

2,915.6

2,SS2.3

2,911.4

2,91S.8

3,075.5

3,100.3

3>151.8

3,242.8

6,694.7

6,887.5

6,761.3

7,021.1

7,064.7

7,10S.6

7,390.5

7,379.1

7,343.0

7,696.6

7,62s.1

7,s14.5

7,859.6

7,836.4

7,876.1

7,716.0

8,148.3

S,177.2

8,382.0

S,481.5

20,S89.0

21,560.6

21,512.9

21,S62.6

22,243.4

21,S22.7

22,998.8

22,387.9

21,392.5

21,750.0

21,085.9

21,345.6

21,162.7

20,508.6

20,063.6

19,081.2

20,234.0

19,990.9

21,192.S

22,116.3

19,796.7

20,012.9

19,699.2

20,267.4

20,213.2

20,003.9

20,659.6

19,967.9

19,201.5

19,477.7

19,180.6

19,654.2

19,727.6

19,271.0

19,156.1

18,284.5

19,189.2

19,109.7

19,524.4

19,679.5

lFigures based .n enumerated papulatic.nadjusted for age bias in the populaticm of races other than

white.

QFigures by color exclude data for residents of New Jersey because this State did not require reporting of the item for these years.

27
Table 7.. Death rates for all caus.e~ by 10-year age groups, color, and sex united States. 1950.69-cIxI,

Color, sex, and year

All other, both sexes

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

1963~---------------------------------------

1962~---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957-----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

All other, male

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

19632---------------------------------------

19622---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------------

1954-------,--------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

All other, female

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

19632---------------------------------------

1962~---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960------------------------:---------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

!11 ages

Under 1-4 5-14 15-24

1 year

25-34

years years years yeafs

Rate per 100,000 population

959.7

987.6

936.3

973.4

965.0

970.6

1,006.2

9s1.3

962.4

1,008.5

994.9

1,027.1

1,046.1

1>007.4

1,001.0

1,006.9

1,077.9

1,101.8

1>109.0

1,119.4

1,132.8

1,158.5

1,093.0

1,129.8

1,114.3

1,114.8

1,152.0

1,117.7

1,094.3

1,152.0

1,133.2

1,162.4

1,186.0

1,140.4

1,133.3

1,144.7

1,228.1

1,251.6

1,248.2

1,251.1

79s.7

828.4

789.8

826.7

824.3

834.6

868.7

852.6

S37.7

872.6

864.2

899.1

913.9

881.6

875.9

877.1

936.4

960.3

976.9

993.5

129.2

136.5

136. E

153.3

153.6

160.9

174.9

166.6

168.7

190.8

189.6

196.4

197.5

7.92.2

19s.5

204.1

222.5

247.9

248.1

250.8

141.7

149.9

151.9

164.3

162.6

173.0

186.9

178.7

179.1

207.3

209.0

204.2

210.9

205.0

212.2

220.3

244.7

266.9

266.6

271.2

116.2

123.2

121.6

142.0

144.5

148.5

163.1

154.6

158.3

174.4

170.3

188.5

184.1

179.5

185.7

188.0

201.0

228.8

229.4

230.3

56.7

58.?

55.1

57.7

58.C

59.4

60,6

59.5

57.1

64.3

65.5

62.1

69.?

65.E

66.C

68.6

75.:

80.?

86.1

86.c

69.5

71.7

65.9

69.1

68.2

71.3

68.8

69.6

67.9

75.2

76.9

72.0

81.4

76.9

76.4

80,8

89.2

92.0

101.3

97.1

43.8

44.9

44.3

46.2

47.9

47.5

52.3

50.2

46.2

53.4

54.8

52.1

57.1

54.6

55.4

56.3

61.3

68.6

70.9

75.0

205.:

190.(

173.!

168.1

158,:

155.5

157.7

157.:

154,$

158.2

164.t

163.2

178.:

175.(

179.1

188.:

213.;

233.2

239.f

251.:

303.5

277.7

247.9

236.0

219,3

212.3

215.4

210.4

207.7

213,8

216.9

219,1

232.6

239.0

237.0

248.9

276,8

291.8

287.0

289.9

113.1

106.3

103.1

K&:

100:9

102.7

106.9

105,0

106.1

115,9

111,7

128.8

118.3

127.3

136.0

159,7

182.6

197.6

216.4

369.5

375.5

354,1

345,9

335.1

332,0

323.8

311,5

310,5

318.6

325.6

335<6

351,3

339.1

338.0

354,5

382.2

412,4

416.5

440.2

516.0

51s.9

478,3

458.5

435.4

425.9

402,3

388.1

::;,:

405:1

405.6

429,9

413,8

405,9

428.3

460,3

482,5

480.5

496,2

239.7

249,2

245.4

247.4

247.3

250.4

255.6

245,0

246.6

260.0

257.2

275.3

283.3

274.4

279.0

290,5

314,2

350.9

360.2

390.4

1

I

lFigures based on enumerated population adjusted for age bias in the population of races other than

wi+te.

‘Figures by color exclude data for residents of New Jersey because this State di~ not require reporting of the item for these years.

28

i

i
All other, male

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

19632---------------------------------------

1962S---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

195L ----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

711.4

716.7

668.5

677.1

664.3

659.0

646.5

631.5

618.2

633.4

627.1

624.5

654.8

643.2

644.7

660.4

724.6

761.1

779.4

805.3

Table 2. Death rates fOr all cause+ by 10-year age groups,color, and s=. ~ited states, 1950-69—COn.

Color, sex, and year

35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 years

years years years years years and over

All other, both sexes

1969----------------------------------------

1968----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964----------------------------------------

19632---------------------------------------

19629---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

1950t---------------------------------------

935.0

920.3

851.4

845.1

811.4

805.1

759.2

736.9

723.3

729.2

719.5

699.2

730.4

704.3

716.1

720.2

803.6

839.1

842.6

860.7

524.4

545.3

513.6

533.3

537.7

531.8

547.2

538.0

525.0

547.3

543.5

555.8

585.2

587.3

577.9

604.8

651.1

688.7

721.1

754.0

Ra

1,317.4

1,346.9

1,287.9

1,319.1

1,299.3

1,317.1

1,322.4

1,294.0

1,270.6

1,342.9

1,330.8

1,397.1

1,448.5

1>400.4

1,439.5

1,509.5

1,623.2

1,654.3

1,685.3

1,706.1

997.0

1,033.5

1,005.6

1,040.0

1,036.8

1,085.4

1,098.5

1,072.6

1,079.0

1,144.9

1,144.0

1,235.9

1,289.2

1,257,7

1,294.5

1,366.5

1,451.3

1,496.2

1,534.8

1,554.9

10 populz ‘on

All other. female

1969----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1967----------------------------------------

1966----------------------------------------

1965----------------------------------------

1964------------”----------------------------

19639---------------------------------------

19622---------------------------------------

1961----------------------------------------

1960----------------------------------------

1959----------------------------------------

1958----------------------------------------

1957----------------------------------------

1956----------------------------------------

1955----------------------------------------

1954----------------------------------------

1953----------------------------------------

1952----------------------------------------

1951----------------------------------------

19501---------------------------------------

1Figures based ou enumerated population adjtkted fcm age bias in the population of races other than

white.

~Figures by color exclude data for residents of New Jersey because this State did not require reporting of the item for these years.

per 100

2,621.1

2,734.8

2,552.3

2,639.0

2,660.2

2,714.7

2,790.6

2,704.2

2,661.2

2,774.6

2,712.4

2,824.3

2,963.6

2,896.2

2,812.7

2,826.8

3,077.0

3,159.7

3,235.9

3,126.6

3,252.8

3,379.0

3,088.4

3,176.6

3,126.6

3,146.8

3,182.0

3,052.6

2,995.9

3,151.5

3,098.5

3,200.2

3,382.3

3,265.8

3,191.2

3,227.1

3,511.5

3,575.0

3,593.9

3,480.8

2,056.1

2,153.0

2,064.8

2,138.4

2,220.8

2,304.2

2,415.1

2,368.4

2,341.7

2,409.7

2,341.1

2,469.1

2,555.5

2,533.3

2,437.5

2,426.5

2,631.0

2,733.0

2,863.2

2,763.0

5,563.8

5,769.6

5,372.1

5,517.9

5,257.0

5,064.0

5,295.0

4,965.9

$;;:.:

4:610:2

4,780.3

4,760.8

4,488.0

4,443.0

4,327.4

4,593.4

4,556.6

4,597.8

5,205.0

6,654.5

6,979.9

6,501.0

6,691.5

6,382.7

6,144.0

6,437.6

5,954.6

5,615.6

5,664.0

5,450.5

5,608.5

5,556.7

5,180.1

5,159.4

5,006.0

5,304.1

5,220.0

5,272.8

5,794.9

4,609.6

4,759.7

4,414.3

4,521.3

4,291.0

4,144.6

4,310.2

4,124.2

3,891.6

3,981.4

3,848.7

4,014.8

$:;:.:

3;783:2

3,700.5

3,918.4

3,934.2

3>959.8

4,610.7

6>932.7

7,120.6

6,729.6

7,117.7

7,019.5

6,975.9

7,436.6

7,200.3

7,009.8

7,631.1

7,247.5

7,480.8

7,394.6

7,247.8

7,236.3

7,111.1

7,637:2

7,653.5

7,814.7

8,039.7

8,407.8

8,508.5

7,974.4

8,213.3

8,132.8

7,921.2

8,503.4

8,048.5

7,818.4

83662.6

8,180.6

8,438.8

8,255.6

8,116.9

8,018.4

7,995.0

8,501.8

8,78L.8

8,721.7

9,029.6

5,851.8

6,094.7

5,742.6

6,223.8

6>092.5

6,134.4

6,541.2

6>441.8

6,293.5

6,708.4

6>413.0

6,610.5

6>593.1

6,429.0

6,440.9

6,219.8

6,759.5

6,583.6

6,948.6

7,064.7

9,963.8

11,148.4

10,848.3

12,001.9

12,345.3

12,801.2

14,569.2

14,397.3

14,231.9

13,907.6

13,175.0

13,395.5

13,253.1

12,604.9

12,270.7

12,183.6

13,778.8

13,851.0

14,183.0

14,473.6

10,172.1

11,563.6

11,430.0

12>704.3

13,070.7

13,429.7

;:,;:;.:

15;593:5

15,238.7

14,444.8

15,611.1

15,503.8

14,44p.o

13,766.7

14,381.8

15,857.1

15,660.0

16,142.1

16,022.1

9,805.0

10,986.1

10,407.6

11,463.3

11,794.4

12,326.5

13,709.1

13,481.0

13,202.4

12,871.2

12,230.8

12,173.7

12,029.7

11,325.0

11,214.7

11,053.1

12,371.0

12,603.4

12,853.6

13,366.8
Table 3. Mortality sex and color ratio% by age: United States, 1950. 1960. and

Year and age in years

~

All ages--------------------------------------

Ender 1---------------------------------------------

l-4-------------------------------------------------

5-9-------------------------------------------------

1O-14-----------------------------------------------

15-19-----------------------------------------------

2O-24-----------------------------------------------

25-29-----------------------------------------------

30-34-----------------------------------------------

35-39-----------------------------------------------

4o-44-----------------------------------------------

45-49-----------------------------------------------

50-% -----------------------------------------------

55-59-----------------------------------------------

6O-64-----------------------------------------------

65-69-----------------------------------------------

70-74-----------------------------------------------

75-79-----------------------------------------------

8O-84-----------------------------------------------

85 and over-----------------------------------------

1960

All ages--------------------------------------

Under 1---------------------------------------------

l-k-------------------------------------------------

5-9-------------------------------------------------

1O-14-----------------------------------------------

13-19-----------------------------------------------

2O-24-----------------------------------------------

23-29-----------------------------------------------

3o-34-----------------------------------------------

35-39-----------------------------------------------

4o-44-----------------------------------------------

45-49-----------------------------------------------

5f3-54-----------------------------------------------

55-59-----------------------------------------------

60-6&-----------------------------------------------

65-69-----------------------------------------------

7o-74-----------------------------------------------

75-79-----------------------------------------------

80-84-----------------------------------------------

85 and over-----------------------------------------

~

All ages--------------------------------------

yl 1--------------------------.-.---------.-----,

. . --- . -----------------------------------------

5-9-------------------------------.-.--------------,

lo-l4-----------------------------------------------

15-l9-----------------------------------------------

20-24-----------.-----.--------.--..-------.-------,

25-29-----------------------------------------------

3o-34-----------------------------------------------

35-39-----------------------------------------------

4o-44-----------------------------------------------

45-49-----------------------------------------------

50-54-----------------------------------------------

55-59-----------------------------------------------

6O-64-----------------------------------------------

65-69-----------------------------------------------

70-74-----------------------------------------------

75-79-----------------------------------------------

80-84-----------------------------------------------

85 and over--------------.---7----------------------

brtalityl

ex ratio

1.3!

1.3(

1.1s

::2

2.59

3.03

2.35

1.87

1.71

1.72

1.82

1.94

2.D7

2.12

1.94

1.84

1.61

1.35

1.04

1.36

1.32

1.21

1.36

1.69

2.41

2.57

1.95

1.64

1.60

1.64

1.79

1.95

1.98

1.91

1.83

1.62

1.42

1.27

1.11

1.34

1.31

1.20

1.36

1.57

1.84

1.93

1.60

1.45

1.43

1.50

1.61

1.71

1.76

1.66

1.58

1.40

1.29

1.20

1.13

[ortality

color

ratf.+

1.01

1.67

1.7C

1.31

1.5C

1.54

1.96

2.62

3.05

2.86

2.5C

2.14

1.9C

1.73

1.62

1.67

1.5C

0.96

0.77

0.49

1.06

1.96

2.00

1.44

1.49

1.40

1.79

2.44

2.70

2.61

2.34

2.00

1.92

1.72

1.74

1.40

1.20

0.93

0.81

0.68

1.18

1.79

2.02

1.54

1.51

2.03

2.43

2.84

3.11

2.73

2.57

2.22

2.29

1.91

1.62

1.48

1.13

0.93

0.76

0.70

Mortality sex ratio

by color

Whites

1.34

1.33

1.18

1.44

1.64

2.62

3.08

2.43

1.87

1.73

1.76

1.87

2.01

2.17

2.24

2.04

1.86

1.61

1.36

1.06

1.37

1.34

1.23

1.40

1.68

2.49

2.76

2.12

1.78

1.72

1.75

1.92

2.11

2.15

2.02

1.88

1.65

1.43

1.27

1.12

1.36

1.32

1.21

L.40

1.62

2.09

2.17

1.75

1.56

1,56

1.65

1.74

1.84

1.85

1,!73

1.61

1.42

1.29

1.20

1.12

11 die+

1.42

1.24

1.22

1.43

1.78

2.49

2.9o

2.37

2.01

1.81

1.76

1.67

1.71

1.65

1.52

1.35

1.60

1.53

1.28

1.04

1.32

1.28

1.19

1.19

1.78

2.06

2.02

3..63

1.39

1.34

1.33

1.35

1.35

1.28

1.34

1.47

1.37

1.30

1.30

1.18

1.26

1.26

1.18

1.23

1.39

1.23

1.44

1.30

1.25

1.15

1.12

1.17

1.20

1.31

1.21

1.28

1.23

1.28

1.30

1.20

9

ortslity color ratio

by flex

Male4

1.04

1.62

1.73

1.37

1,55

1.53

1.95

2.64

3.2o

2.97

2.55

2.07

1.81

1.57

1,39

1,39

1,39

0.94

0.74

0.49

1.05

1.93

1.98

1,35

1.53

1,32

1.65

2.26

2.47

2.36

2.10

1.75

1.62

1.40

1.47

1,26

L.1o

0,88

0.81

0.70

1,15

Female*

0,98 —

1.73

1,67

1.38

14.$3

1.61

2,07

2,70

2.98

2.85

2.55

2,32

z.13

2,07

2.05

2.11

1.62

0,98

0.78

0,50

1.09

2,03

2.03

~,jj

1;60

2,25

2.94

3.17

3.04

2,78

2,49

2,53

2,35

2,22

1,61

1,32

0,97

0,80

0.66

1,24

1,85

2,05

1,66

1,67

2,84

3.18

3,40

3,55

3,27

::;!

2.95

Z.36

2,00

1,68

1,21

0,93

0.73

0,68

lThe age-specificdeath rate for the specifiedyear for che male popnlaciondividedby the correspondingage-specific death

z-atef.. the female pc.pulatfm.

~he age-specificdeath rate for the specified year for the populationofraces other than white divided by the correspondfn age-specificdeath rate for the white pqmlatim.

%Theage-c.l.r-specifi. deatiratef.r thespecified ye=rfor themlepowlatLon di"ided bychec.mesponding age-cmlor.

specific death rate for the female p.ptihti.m.

4The age-sex-specificdeath rate for the specifiedye’krfor the populationof races other than white dfvfded by tbecorrs.

spendingage-sex-specificdeath rate for the white population.

I

!

1

3D
APPENDIX I

TECHNICAL NOTES

Death Statistics

Tabulations of deaths used in this report

are based on information obtained from microfilm copies of the original certificates (appendix

II discusses the standard certificates). These copies were received from the registration offices of

all States, certain cities, and the Dktrict of Columbia. The statistical information on these

records was edited, classiiled, transferred to a

tape for computer processing, and tabulated in

the Nat i onal Center for Health Statistics

(NCHS).

The rates shown in tlds report are based on

deaths tabulated by place of occurrence, that is,

all deaths occurring in the death-registration

States from 1900 to 1932, and all deaths occurring in the continental United States thereafter, with Alaska added beginning 1959 and Hawaii, 1960. Deaths among Armed Forces overseas and among U.S. nationals living abroad are

excluded for all years.

Race

The category “white” includes, in addition

to persons reported as “white,” persons reported

to be Mexican or Puerto Rican. The categories

“races other than white” or “all other” consist

of persons reported as Negro, American Indian,

Chinese, and Japanese; other numerically small

racial groups; and persons of mixed white and

other races.

Population Bases

Rates were computed on the bases of population statistics made available by the U.S.

Bureau of the Census. Rates for decennial years

1940, 1950, and 1960 are based on the populations enumerated in censuses of those years,

which are taken as of April 1. Rates for all other

years are based on midyear (July 1) estimates.

Sources of the populations used, published by

the Bureau of the Census are as follows:

Vital Statistics Rates in the United States,

1900-1940, Washington, U.S. Government

Printing Office, 1943.

. ...

Current Population Reports, Series P-25:

No. 98. “Estimates of the Population of

the United States and of the Components of Change, by Age, Color,

and Sex: 1940 to 1950,”1954.

No. 265. “Estimates of the Population of

the United States, by Age, Color, and

Sex: July 1, 1950 to 1962,” 1963.

(Used only for data years 1961 and

1962.)

No. 276. “Estimates of tbe Population of

the United States, by Age, Color, and

Sex: July 1, 1963,”1963.

No. 310. “Estimates of the Population of

the United States and Components of

Change, by Age, Color, and Sex: 1950

to 1960,”1965.

No. 321. “Estimates of the Population of

the United States, by Age, Color, and

Sex: July 1, 1960 to 1965,” 1965.

(Used only for data years 1964 and

1965.)

No. 352. “Estimates of the Population of

the United States, by Age, Color, and

Sex: July 1, 1966,”1966.

31
No. 385. “Estimates of the Population of

the United States, by Age, Color, and

Sex: July 1, 1964 to 1967,” 1968.

(Used only for data year 1967.)

No. 416. “Estimates of the Population of

the United States, by Age, Color, and

Sex: July 1, 1968,”1969.

No. 441. “Estimates of the Population of

the United States, by Age, Color, and

Sex: July 1, 1969,”1970.

The population estimates by color used for

1962 and 1963 excIude New Jersey. The birth,

death, and fetal death records of the State of

New Jersey did not contain the race item in the

beginning of 1962. The certificate revision without this item was used for most of 1962 as well

as for 1963. Therefore the NationaI Center for

Health Statistics estimated a population base by

color for these years which excluded New

Jersey. The estimates for 1963 are shown in

table 6-5, Part A, Volume II, Vital Statistics of

the United States, 1963. Those fo~ 1962 are

shown in the comparable table of the report for

that year.

AD rates are shown per 100,000 population. In many cases the rates are shown beyond the last significant figure, not because they

can be interpreted with that degree of accuracy,

but merely for convenience in computation and

publication.

Crude Death Rate

The “crude death rate” is so named to distinguish it from specific or adjusted rates that

00

32

have more definite or limited interpretations, As

used in this report the crude death rate is computed by dkiding the total deaths occurring in

the United States during a given csdendar year

by the total resident population in that year,

and multiplying the result by 100,000. Thus in

this report each calendar year has but a single

crude death rate.

Age-Adjusted Rates

The age-adjusted rates presented in this report were computed by the direct method, that

is, by applying the age-specific death rates for all

causes to the standard population distributed by

age. The total population as enumerated in 1940

was selected as the standard. The rates for the

total population and for each color-sex group

were adjusted separately, using the same standard population. Age-adjusted rates are shown

with an asterisk where more than haIf of the

age-specific death rates are based on fewer than

20 deaths. The standard population used, given

in terms of a million, is shown below:

Age in years

Alleges . . . . . . . . . .

Under I....... . . . . .

1-4

514::::::::::: ::

15-24 . . . . . . . . . . .,.

25-34.

3544.:::::::::: ::

45+4. . . . . . . . . . . . .

5S34 . .

65-74..::::::::: ::

7564 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

85andwsr . . . . . . . . . . . .

0

Million

1,000,000

15,343

84,718

170,355

181,677

162,086

139,237

l17,all

80,29S

48,426

17,303

2,770

I

I
APPENDIX II

THE UNITED STATES STANDARD CERTIFICATE OF DEATH

AS REVISED 1968

Standard certificates ofdeathissued by the

National Center for Health Statistics and its

predecessor offices have served for many years

as the principal means of attaining uniformity in

the content of the documents used to collect

information on these events. They have been

modified in each State to the extent necessitated

by the particular needs of the State or by special

provisions of the State vital statistics law. The

certificates of most States, however, conform

closely in content and arrangement to the standard certificates.

The most recent revision of the standard certificate of death is shown on page 34. It was made

in close collaboration with S~ate health officers

and registrars; Federal agencies concerned with

vital statistics; national, State, and county medical societies; and others working in the fields of

public health, social welfare, demography, and

insurance. It was recommended to the States for

adoption as of January 1, 1968.

33
mu, At,”..,.

WCC” ,“,[.. NO. *,-., m,

r

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--l U.S. STAN DA RD

1 1

lYPE, OR PRIN1 [N tom, nl? .“.s,. CERTIFICATE OF DEATH ‘

‘nnMANIN1lNK OECEASW-NAME

s,.” ,,.” ”.,,,

SEf HNDIOOK FOR

,,,,, . .. . . 1.s1 SEX DAIEOt DE41H 1.0.1., OAt VIA~l

l#ST1UCl10M5 ,

-i ‘!’“;”:

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.,

~te.D~A:Of URTHIM”W .-, CGUNWOFDU7H

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cm’. mvm. OR WcAno. .x mm+

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7< 7d

S1A1EOF81RIH ,,, ..,,. u,, ,< “u, anzm .3F WHAT CCUNW MAml,w, NEWR MAww, SURVIV!NG smus~ ,,, w’,, .8”, #Am,” m,,

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.s”,, .Es,m!,’cf

w.,,, BECMKD ,

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34
APPENDIX Ill

EFFECT OF THE REDUCTION IN LIVE BIRTHS

DURING 1961-69 ON THE 1969 CRUDE DEATH RATE

Inasmuch as the reductidn in live births had

continued for about 9 years as of July 1, 1969,

the number of persons under 10 years of age as

of this date was lower than it would have been if

the reduction had not occurred. To assess the

effect on the crude death rate for 1969 of the

exclusion from the population of these chW-en

under 10 years of age, the numbers of survivors

at ages under 1 yea, 1-4 years, and 5-9 years as

of July 1, 1969, were estimated from the following two sets of live-birth data:

(1)

(2)

The

The acturd number of live births during each 6-month period from JulyDecember 1959 through January-June

1969; and

the hypothesized number of live births

during these same 6-month periods

breed on the assumption that there

had been no reduction in the number

of live births.

method for obtaining these estimates

of survivors is described below. -

Infants born July-December during 1959-68.–

First, the estimated numbers of survivors at ages

under 1 year, 1-4 years, and 5-9 years, as of July

1, 1969, were computed from the 10 cohorts of

inkmts horn during July-December of each year

of’ the period 1959-68. See table on ~aze 36.

A~cordhg to the multiplicat~on”

probability thcory:s

son

P (AB) = P(A) P(BIA).

rule of

Thus the conditional probability that a perwilI reach the single year B relative to the

hypothesis that the person has reached the prior

single year A may be represented as follows:

p (AB)

P(BIAJ=—

P(A)

In this formula P(AB) is, of course, the

probability that both A and B have occurred.

In the application of this formula the number of survivors in both the numerator P(AB)

and the denominator P(A) was taken to be the

number of survivors shown in the life table for

the calendar year in which the person reached

the year A rather than for the calendar year in

which the person reached the year B. One of the

reasons for the seledion of the number of survivors for the earlier calendar year was that during the first 10 years of life the probability of

dying declines with advance in age.

It should be noted that the estimate shown

in the table below of the survivors of the cohort

of infants born during July-December 1967

(1,81 1,151 infants), who were between ages 1

and 2 years as of July 1, 1969 (1,768,174), may

be somewhat lower than the actual number of

survivors at this age. By applying the probability

0.97761 of reaching age 1 year to the 1,811,151

infants born during July-December 1967, it is

found that 1,770,599 reached age 1 year during

July-December 1968. Thus they were at risk of

dying at ages between 1 and 2 years from 6

months to 1 year before July 1, 1969. It follows, therefore, that the estimate (1,768,1 74) of

those who reached their second year of life during July-December 1969 (1,77 0,599 multiplied

35
Probabilitiesof survivingeach single year of life Under 10 years of age, given thzr the Prior single

year has been survivedI

1------------------

7---.--..--.-._----

i ------------------

4------------------

5------------------

6------------------

7-----------------

8------------------

9------------------

10-----------------

1------------------

2------------------

3------------------

4------------------

5------------------

;------------------

7------------------

8------------------

9------------------

10-----------------

0------------------

1------------------

2------------------

3------------------

4------------------

5------------------

6------------------

7------------------

8------------------

9------------------

10-----------------

Nwtber of live

births------------

.%rv%v.rs:Ju1y

7.,1969-----------

Age in Y==s -------

1968

r“ly-De.

100,000

97,823

100,000

100>000

1.00000

0.97823

.,826,&62

.,786,700

under 1

1967

l“ly-Dec.

100,000

97,761

.97,689

100,000

100,000

97,823

1.00000

0.97761

0.99863

.,811,151

.,768,174

1

Period of birth

1966 1965 196& 1963 1962 1961 1960 1959

r~ly-De.. J=ly-Dec. Ju1y-Dec. Ju1y-De.. July-De.. July-Dee. July-Dee. .7”1y-u.ti.

Numeratorsof probabilities:P IiBl x 100,OOL3

100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000

97,639 97,550 97,526 97,481

97,629 97>492 97,407

97.475 97,469 ;;,;::

97,374

97,357

97,324 97,325

97,605 97,544 97,404 97,316 97,281 97,229

91,224

97,540 97,479 97,335

97;230

97,247 97,212

97,215

97,155

97,486 97,424

97,157

97,276 97,188 97,152 97,094

97,425 97,366 97,216 97,129

97,375 97,318

97,092

97,166 97,080

97,335 97,279 97,126

97,303 97,267

97,275

Denominatorsof Pr.bahilicies:P {.<) X 100,000

100,000

100>000

97,761

97,689

1.00000

0.97639

0.99865

0.9993A

.,862,838

.,814,839

2

100,000 100,000 100,000

100,000

lD0,000

100,000 lDO,000 lDO,000

97,639 97,550 97,526 97,481

97,629 97,492 97,407 97,374

97,605 97,544 97>404

97,540

97,316

97,479 97,335

97,486 97,424

97,425

Probabilities:P (B[il

1.00000

0.97550

0.99849

0.99913

0.99933

.,933,838

.,880,711

3

1.00000

0.97481

0.99844

0.99907

0.99929

0.99944

0.99937

--l-L !,071,3682,118,3362,163,242

!,012,87~2,055,9252,098,098

100,000 100,000

97,475

97,324

97,281

97,247

97,276

97,366

97,375

1.00000

0.97469

0.99846

0.99902

0,99929

0.99939

0.99938

0.99951

0.99959

!,207,702

!,140,317

7

100,000 100,000

100>000 m!ymg

97,469

97,325 97;311

97,229 97,230

97,212 97,155

97,188 97,152

97,216 97,129

97,318 97,166

97.335 91,279

97,303

%ese Probabilitiesare based on life tables for each year during 1959-69,~“blishedin Vital Statisticsof the Ihited $%ttw,

by 0.99863) is abetter estimate of those who

werebetweenages land2yearson Js.dyl,1969,

than is the estimate,1,770,599, of those who

reached age 1 year duringJuly-December 1968.

In any event,if for the actualnumber of live

bkths tie estimateof the number of survivorsat

ages between 1 and 2 years issomewhat lower

than it should be, thismoderate errori8offset

for allpracticablepurposes by the fact,as will

be shown below, thatforthe hypothesized number of livebirthsthe estimateof the number of

survivorsat agesbetween 1 and 2 yearsisarrived

atin exactlythe same manner.

The cohort of infants cited above, born

duringJuly-December 1967, was selectedfor illustration.But the same procedures were followed for each of the 10 cohortsof infantsborn

duringJuly-December of each year of the period

1959-68 to obtain the betterestimateof those

survivingto a givenage as ofJuly 1, 1969.

Infants born January-June during 1960-69. -

The next step was to estimate the numbers of

survivorsat agesunder 1 year,1-4years,and 5-9

years,as ofJuly 1, 1969, from the 10 cohorts of

infantsborn during January-June of each year OF

the period 1960-69. See tableon page 37.

Essentiallythe same procedure was fob

lowed as that used to estimatethe survivorsof

the infantsborn during JuIy-December of each

year of the period 1959-68.

The infants born during January-June

1967, however, reached age 1 year during

January-June 1968, and reached age 2 yearsduringJanuary-June 1969. The best estimate,there36
Age in years

o------------------

1------------------

2------------------

3------------------

4------------------

5------------------

6------------------

7------------------

8------------------

9------------------

0------------------

1------------------

2------------------

3------------------

4------------------

5------------------

6------------------

7------------------

8------------------

9------------------

0------------------

1------------------

2------------------

3------------------

4------------------

5------------------

6------------------

7------------------

8------------------

9------------------

Number of live

bfrths------------

Survi”OrS:JUIY

1, L969-----------

Age in years

Probabilities.f surviving..a.hsingle Year .f life under 10 years of age, give” that the Prior si@e

Y,=. has bee” survived1

1969

1.”.-June

100,OOD

97,892

100,000

100,000

1.00000

0.97892

,724,648

,688,292

Under 1

Period of birth

1968 1967 1966 1965 1964 1963

am.-J””e Jarl.-June Jam.-June Ja-.-JIw+ Jail.-JWleJan.-.rWle

100, OOC

97,823

100,000

100,000

1.00000

0.97823

1,675,102

1,63s,63;

Numsr.atc.rsof pr.habilili..:P IABI x 100,000

100,000 100,000 100,000

97,761

100,000 1:;,j:;

97,639 97,550

97,689 ;;,62;

97,526

97,492 97,407 97:374

> 97,544 97,404

97,540

97,316

97,479 97,335

97,486 97,424

97,423

Denodriat.r.of probabilities:1>(AJ X 100,000

100,000

100,000

97,823

1.00000

0.97761

0.99863

,709,808

,669,235

2,

1962

Ian.-J””,

1:;,:;:

97;324

97,281

97,247

97,3.76

97,366

97.,375

100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000

100,000

100,000

10LJ,::CI 100,000 100,000

97,761

10D,000

97,550 97,526

97;629

97,481

97,689 97,492 97,407 97,374

97,605 97,544 97>404

97,540

97,316

97,479 97,335

97>486 :;,:;:

Probabilities:P (BIA)

1.00000

0.97639

0.99865

0.99914

.,743,436

,,698,513

3

1.00000

0.97550

0.99849

0.99313

0.99933

1,826,520

1,776,341

4

1.00000

0.97526

0.99853

0.99910

0.99933

0.99945

1,956,122

1,900,888

5

100,000

97,469

97,325

97,229

97,212

97,188

97,216

97,318

97,335

100,000

100,000

97,475

97,324

97,281

97,247

97,276

97,366

Q7,375

L

1.00000 1.00000 1.00000

0.97481 0.97475 0.97469

0.99844 0.99839 0.99846

0.99907 0.99904 0.99902

0.99929 0.99929 0.99929

0.99944 0.99939 0.99939

0.99937 0.99949 0.99938

0.99949 0.99951

0.99959

1,979,684 2,004,120 2,060,624

1,921,358 1,943,768 1,997,728

6 7 8

100,000

97,394

97,311

97,230

97,155

97,152

97>129

97>166

97,279

97,303

10!3,000

100,000

97,469

97,325

97,229

97,212

97,188

97,216

97,318

97,333

1.00000

0.97394

0.99838

0.99902

0.99924

0.99938

0.99939

0.99949

0.99960

0.99967

2,017,986

1,953,967

9

1Thm30 probabilities are based on life tables far each year dtmimg 1959-69, publisbed in Vital Statistics of the United States.

fore, of the survivors of this cohort who were

between ages 2and3years as ofJulyl,1969,

was taken to be: (1,709,808) (0.97761)

(0.99863) = 1,669,235. Fortheseinfantsbom

January-June 1967 this estimate ofl,669,235

survivors at ages between 2 and 3 years may be

somewhat higher than it should be: for some

deaths mayhaveoccumed amongthembetween

the date during January-June 1969 when they

reached their second year of age, and July 1,

1969. But again, inanyevent, if fortheactuaf

number oflivebirths the estimate of the number

of survivors between ages 2 and 3 years as of

July 1, 1969, issomewhat higher thanit should

be, this moderate error is offset bythe factthat

for the hypothesized number of Iive births the

estimate of the number of survivors at ages between 2 and 3 years is arrived at in exactly the

same manner.

Again, the cohort of infants cited above,

born during January flune 1967, was selected for

illustration. The same procedures were followed

for each of the 10 cohorts of infants born during

January-June of each year of the period

1960-69.

Hypothesized number of infants born JulyDecember during 1959-68.–The third step was to

estimate the numbers of survivors at ages under

1 year, 1-4 years, and 5-9 years, as of JuIy

1, 1969, from the 10 cohorts of inlants who

would have been b om during July-December of

each year of the period 1959-69 if there had

been no reduction in the number of live births.

More specifically, inasmuch as the largest numQ

37
ber of live births (2,239,864) among these 10

cohorts occurred for July-December 1960, it

was hypothesized that this same numb er occurred during each of the eight subsequent

6-month periods from July-December 1961

through July-December 1968. See table below.

The same procedure was followed as that

used to estimate the survivors of the actual number of infants, as shown above, born during

July-December of each year of the period

1959-68.

Hypothesized number of infants born JanuaryJune during 7960-69.–l%za1ly the numbers of

survivors at ages under 1 year, 1-4 years, and

5-9 years, as of July 1, 1969, were estimated

from the 10 hypothetical cohorts of infants

born during January#une of each year of the

period 1960-69. See table on page 39.

Inasmuch as the largest number of live

births (2,060,624) among these 10 cohorts occurred for January-June 1961, it was hypothesized that this same number occurred during

each of the eight subsequent 6-month periods

from January-June 1962 through January-June

1969.

The same procedure was followed as that

used to estimate the survivors of the actual number of infants, as shown above, born during

January-June of each year of the period

1960-69.

Adjusted crude death rate for 7969. - The

difference between the hypothesized number of

0------------------

1------------------

2------------------

3------------------

4------------------

5------------------

6------------------

,---.-__--_------_-

a------------------

9------------------

10-----------------

0------------------

~--------------

7-.--.-------------

i------------------

4------------------

5------------------

ii------------------

,------------------

8------------------

9------------------

Io-----------------

o------------------

1------------------

2------------------

%-----_--.----_-_-

.&-----------------

5------------------

6------------------

?------------------

s-----_----------_-

5------------------

Lo-----------------

Hypothesizedlive

birchs------------

SurviwOrs:.7uly

L, 1969-----------

Age in years-------

Probabilitiesof smvivins each singleyear of life under 10 years of .s., given that the prior single

year has been survived1

Period of birth

1968 1967 1966 1965 1964 1963 1962 1961 1960 1959

July-Dec. July-Dee. Jnly-Dec. Jmly-Dec. July-Dec. July-Oec. July-Dec. July-De., July-Dee. JUIY-DCC.

?Omeratarsof probabilities:P [ABJ X 100,000

my y:

100,000

10 D,OOO

1.00000

0.97823

2,239,864

2,191,102

Under L

100,000

97,761

97,689

100,000

100,000

97,S23

1.00000

:. w;::

.,239,866

,186,714

1

1;; ,00: 100,000 100,000 1:; No&

97,350

100,000 1:$,%

97,526

1%,:;:

97;629 97,492

97,475

97.407 ‘33;:;: 97,324

97,605

97;325

97,364 97,m4 97,281

97:311

91;335

97,229

97,5’30 97,479 97,247

97,230

97,212 97,155

97,4S6 97,424 97,276

97,425

97,1s8 97,152

97,366 97,216 97,129

97,375 97,318 97,166

97,335 97,279

97,303

Denominatorsof probabilities:18(A) X 100,000

100,000

10J7,X:

97:689

1.00000

0.97639

0.99865

0.99914

;>239,S64

.,182,150

2

100,000

l~,:y

97:629

97,605

I:cl,:(m;

97;224

97,215

97,157

97,094

97,092

;.,:;;

97:2h7

97,275

100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000

100,000

~:>:::

100,000

100,000

I:;,glm; 100,000

97,550 97,526

I:13,m:

97,492

97,675

97,407

97:469

97;374

97,544

97,324

97,404 97,316

97,325 97:311

97,2S1

97,540

97,229

97,479 97,335

97,230

97,247

97,4S6

97,212

97.424

97,15s

97,276 97,1ss 97,152

97,425 97,366 97,216 97,129

97,375 97,318 97,166

97,335 97,279

97,303

Probabilities: P (BIV

1.00000

0.97550

0. 99s49

0.99913

0.99933

!,239, S6&

.,178 ,329

3

1.00000

0.97326

0.99853

0.99910

0.99933

0.99945

2,239,86&

2,176,618

4

1.00000

0.97481

0.99s44

0.99907

0.99929

0.99944

0.99937

2,239,864

2,173,873

5

1.00000

0.97469

0.99846

0.99902

0.99929

0.99939

$;;;;;

0:99959

1.00000

0.97394

0,99s38

0.99902

0,99924

0,9993s

0.99939

0.99949

0.99960

0.99967

1.00000

0,97357

D.99vd5

o,99YOI

0,99925

0,99937

0,99V38

0,99Y50

0.99959

: ~9

2,20Z,9W

2,131,35;

lThese probabilitiesare based cm life tablesfor each year durins 1959-69,publishedin Vital Sttttistics of the United States.

*

38
Pr.babilitie.of survivingeach single Par of life under 10 ;ears of we, given that the Prior single

Year b.. been survived

J&e i. years

o.----.-------.----

i------------------

2------------------

3------------------

4------------------

5------------------

6------------------

7------------------

8------------------

9------------------

0------------------

1------------------

2-----------------

3------------------

4------------------

5------------------

6------------------

7------------------

8------------------

9------------------

0------------------

1------------------

2------------------

:=====

5------------------

6------------------

7------------------

B------------------

9------------------

‘W:kwve--

Survivors: July

1, 1969-----------

Age in Ye.ars-------

1969

a“.-Juae

100,000

97,892

1003000

10D,OOO

1.00000

0.97892

,060,624

,017,186

W3er 1

Period of birth

196S 1967 1966 1965 1964 1963 1962 1961

all..7Une Jan.<me .laI1.-.7””.Jam.-June Jan.-June .7an.-Am, Jan.-June Jan. -June

N!nm?ratorsof probabilities: 1>(AB) X 100,000

I:cl,yg 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000

97,761 97,639 97,550

100,000

97,526

97,689

97,4s1 97,475

97,629 97,492 97,407 97,374

97,469

97,605

97,324 97,325

97,544 97,404 97,316

97.,540

97,2s1

97>479

97,229

97,335 97,247

97,486 97,424

97,212

97,276

97,425

97,188

97,366 97,216

97,375 97,318

97,335

Denominators of probabilities: P (,4)X 100,000

100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100>000 100,000 100,000 100,000

100,000

100,000

100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000

97,823 97,761

100,000 1:;,:()!

97,639 97,550 97,526

97,689 97>629 97,492

97,481

97,407 97,374 97;324

97,605 97,544 97,404 97>316

97,540 97,479

97,281

97,335 97,247

97,486 97,424 97,276

97,425 97,366

97,375

Probabilities:P (BtaJ

1.00000

0.97823

,060,624

,015,764

1

1.0000C

0.97761

0.99863

2,060,624

2,011,727

2

1.00000

0.97639

0.99S65

0.99914

2,060,624

2,007,52;

1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000

0.97550 0.97526 0.97481 0.97475 0.97469

0.99849 0.99853 0.99844 0.99839 0.99846

0.99913 0.99910 0.99907 0.99904 0.99902

0.99933 0.99933 0.99929 0.99929 0.99929

0.99945 0.99944 0.99939 0.99939

0.99937 0.99940 0.99938

0.99949 0.99951

0.99959

2,060,624 2,060,624 2,060,624 2,060,624 2,060,624

2,004,01~ 2,002,43; 1,999,91: 1,998,577 1,997,72S

s

1960

ran. -June

100,000

97,394

97,311

97,230

97,155

97,152

97,129

97,166

97,279

97,303

100,000

100,000

97,469

97,325

97,229

97,212

97,188

97,216

97,318

97,335

1.00000

0.97394

0.99838

0.99902

0.99924

0.99938

0.99939

0.99949

0.99960

0.99967

2,017,986

1,953,967

9

13’heseprobabilities are based on life tables for ea.h year during 1959-69,publishedin Vital Statistic.of tbe United states.

survivors and the actual number of survivors was

then computed for the age groupsunder lyear,

1-4 years, and 5-9 years. See table on page 40.

The 1969 a~e=d=th rates were then

appliedto this addi;ionalpopulation that would

have existed if there had been no reduction in

the number oflive birthsduringthe 1960’s. The

addhional deaths thus estimated were added to

the numerator of the actual crude death rate for

1969, and the additiona.l population was added

to the denominator toobtain theadjusted crude

death rate for 1969, as follows:

Adjusted crude death rate

1,9!21,990 + 18,075

= 201,921,000 + 3,695,165 (100,000)

= 943.6 deaths per 100,000 population.

Cone/usion.–The actual crude rate for 1969

waa 951.9 deaths per 100,000 population. It

follows, therefore, that the effect of the reduction of live births during the1960’s onthe

crude death rate raised it about 8.3 deaths per

100,000 above what it would have been if this

reduction had not occurred. In other words, if

there had beenno reductioninlive births during

the 1960’sthe crude death ratewould have been

about 0.9 percent lower than it actually was. If

instead of assuming that there was no reduction

in the number of live births, as was done above,

it had been assumed that there was no reduction

in the live birth rate during the 1960’s, the resulting hypothetical crude rate would have fallen

slightly more than 0.9 percent below the actual

crude death rate for 1969.

39
Age in years

‘Total ander 10------

Under l -------------------

1-4-----------------------

5-9-----------------------

Number of

survivors

Jllly1, 1969

(1)

38,046,529

3,474,992

14,2593327

20,312,210

Ihmber of

survivors

fro~~;~e;thnumber of

live births:

July 1, 1969

(2)

41,741,694

4,208,288

16,762,845

20,770,561

Estimated

numb er of

additional 1969 death

persons:

rate per

column 2

100,000

minus columm population

1

(3) (4)

3,695,165 ...

I

733,296 2,148.0

2,503,518 85.0

458,351 42.7

EsCimated

number of

additional

deaths :

Colanlu4 x

column 3 +

100,000

(5}

18,075

15,751

2,128

196

Similar computations for each of the years

in the period 1961-68 as those presented above

for 1969 show that for each of the first years

(1961-66) of the reduction in the number of live

births, the cumulative effect on the crude death

rate was to lower it slightly below what ii would

have been had the reduetion not occurred. For

these years the value of the actual crude rate

minus the hypothetical rate was negative aud

grew smaller for each succeeding year. Then for

subsequent years in the 1960’s (1967-69) the

value of the actual crude rate minus the hypothetical rate became positive and grew larger for

each succeeding year.

Thk difference will continue to grow larger

at least through the first half of the 1970’s, For

beginniug about 1970 the cumulative effect of

the reduction in live births will be to lower the

number of survivors not only at ages under 1

year (high-risk group) and at ages 1-4 years arsd

5-9 years (relatively much Iower risk groups),

but also the number of survivors at ages 10-14

years (a group with an even lower risk of dexth

than the risks for the age groups 1-4 and 5-9

years).

000

I

40
VITAL AND HEALTH STATISTICS PUBLICATION SERIES

Originally Pablic Health Service Publication No. 1000

University of WiScOhS;n

Library, C@er for Demography

3216”Social Science fj[dgh

Madison, WI 537ffi

.X@

Series 1. Progvams and collection @’ocedures.-Reports which describe the general programs of the Nstionsf

Center for Health Statistics end its offices and divisions, data collection methods used, definitions,

and orher material necessary for under etemding the data.

Series 2. Data evaluation and methods research. -Studies of new statistical methodology including experimental tests of new survey methods, studies of vftal statistics collection methods, new analytical

techniques, objective evaluations of reliability of collected data, contributions to statistical theory.

Series 3. Asa2Wical studies. -Reports preeenring snslyticsf or interpretive studies based on vital and health

statistics, carrying the analysis further than the expository types of reports in the other series.

Series 4. Documents and committee refiovts.— Finaf reports of maior committees concerned with vital end

Seriee 10.

Se7+es 11.

.%ries 12.

Series 13.

Series 14.

Series 20.

Series 21.

Series 22.

health starfsrics, and documeks such as reco-mmended m“odel vital registration laws end revised

birth end death certificates.

Dati jrom Ote Health Interview Survev.— Statistics on illneea, accidents injuries, dfsabili~, use

of hospital, medical, dental, and orher servicee, and other health-related topics, based on dare

collected in a continuing national household interview survey.

Data jrom the Health Examination Swrvey.-Data from direct examination, testing, and measurement of national samples of the civilian, n6ninetitutionaI population provide the basis for two types

of reports (1) estimatee of the medically defined prevalence of specific diseases in the United

States and the distributions of the population with respect to phyeical, physiological, and psychological characteristics; and (2) analysis of relationships among the various measurements without

reference to an eaplicit finite univeree of pereons.

.--.%--- --”- “-.>s..

Data from the Institutional Po@d&n.Suzuey#-Statistics relating to the health characteristics of

persons in institutions, and tfieir m~;ticd~mrsfng;-and, personal care received, based on national

samples of ~e~ftiis$rnen~.”~~~fi~ng these services and &les of the residents or patients.

.,{ ..!- >-‘ J

Datafrom the Hos@al Dischsr~e Survey. ..?- ..< !ics relatin~ to discharged patiente in short.stey

hospitale, based o?: a %ample of patient rs. .I : national q$mple of hospitals.

,,

i. .-

Data on health~r~~oyrces: fmmfioyw andJ -. ..

:- -

---tatisticl L on the numbers, geographic distribution, and chsr#cr&istic${ of ,h~aI~ resour iding ‘physicians, dentists, nurses, other health

occupations, h~~pitals, nurqfng hoines. em

~J. !“;

,lent facill:t+.

‘1I 1~

Dati on movfa&v.rVarfou$ statistic jwy orhd. r+n as included in regular snnuel or

monmy reports— ~~ecial analyses by .-.: d@A age sod other demographic veriablea, SkI

geographic end &e kriesamlyss:.

I

~’~ i.:

!,

Data on ?unWity,@uwriage, ~,and divwc — - I~.]t. %cs bn natali~, marriage, end divorce

other then as included ~n reguk ,.13$‘1 ,$I Iy ‘%-special analyses by demograpbfc

variables, also geographic and tirn+ ‘,S.SXf.. - ,.. .f’femfliry.

.

j; % 1

Data from the Nakimsl I(atality\taddMo .-’ ,; ., .... ‘istice on characteristics of birrhe

and deaths not available ffom’itbe vifal .r~ ...$1. , . ,flple eurveys stemmfng from these

records, including such ~pics~.as rnortalirf, .y . . . . . d~ic class, hospital experience in the

Isst year of life, medical c~re dtd+g pregnancy:- !&lrb ins~sdce coverage, etc.

-. -, .“.~.,)% f

For a list of r.itles of reports published in rbes~ s,er~,%rite to: ‘-~ &f ice of Information

.

r

----

:.: -- ---~ National Center for Health Statistics “---- “-~>.--.s ~ --

i . :,V--J” ~ .> Ptiblic Health Service, HRA ,, ~.~y+ .. ....-’

}“ Rockville, Md. 20852

“-’ . _ - -ea~