NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 39

NOS Procedures for Developing and Implementing

Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic Model

Systems

Silver Spring, Maryland

May 2003

noaa National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Ocean Service

Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services
VISION AND MISSION STATEMENTS

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Mission Goals:

! Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem-based

management approaches.

! Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond.

! Serve society’s needs for weather and water information.

! Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally

sound transportation.

Vision: To move NOAA into the 21st Century scientifically and operationally, in the same

interrelated manner as the environment that we observe and forecast, while recognizing the link

between the global economy and our planet’s environment.

Mission: To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage

coastal and marine resources to meet our Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs.

NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOAA’s NOS)

Vision: To be the Nation's principal advocate for coastal and ocean stewardship through

partnerships at all levels. 

Mission: To support and provide the science, information, management, and leadership necessary

to balance the environmental and economic well-being of the Nation's coastal resources and

communities.

NOS’ Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS)

Vision: A Nation where everyone has ready access to tide, current, water level, and other coastal

oceanographic products and services required for informed decision making.

Mission: To provide the National infrastructure, science, and technical expertise to monitor,

assess, and distribute tide, current, water level, and other coastal oceanographic products and

services necessary to support NOAA's Strategic Plan.

NOS’ Office of Coast Survey (OCS)

Vision: Customers have accurate and timely information to navigate and manage U.S. coastal

waters.

Mission: Acquire, integrate, and manage the Nation's marine information for nautical charting

and coastal applications.
NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 39

NOS Procedures for Developing and Implementing

Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic

Model Systems

Mark Vincent, Kurt Hess, John Kelley 

May 2003

noaa National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Don Evans, Secretary Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.)

Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and 

NOAA Administrator

National Ocean Service

Dr. Richard Spinrad, Assistant Administrator for NOAA Oceans and Coasts

 

Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services

Michael Szabados, Director
ii

NOTICE

Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an

endorsement by NOAA. Use for publicity or advertising purposes of

information from this publication concerning proprietary products or

the tests of such products is not authorized.
iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

INTRODUCTION .............................................................1

Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Procedure Phases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Teams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Technical Review Team . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

System Design and Implementation Team . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Key Users and Evaluators (Users) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Resulting Documents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Application to Forecast Systems already in Development ........................5

National Operational Coastal Modeling Program Strategic Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

PROCEDURE PHASES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Phase 1: Selection of the Target Water Body . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Phase 2: Needs, Requirements, and Proposed Solution ...........................7

Phase 3: Development of the Quasi-Operational Forecast System ..................8

Stage 1: Setup and Evaluation of the Hydrodynamic Model .................8

Stage 2: Construction and Evaluation of the Quasi-Operational Forecast System

..........................................................8

Phase 4: Implementation of the Operational Forecast System .....................9

Stage 1: Preparation of the Implementation Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Stage 2: Migration to the Operational Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Stage 3: Final Evaluation, Documentation, and Training Requirements for the 

Quasi-Operational Forecast System in an Operational Environment ....9

Stage 4: Declaration of Operational Status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Stage 5: Communications Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Phase 5: Operations, Maintenance, and Enhancements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

APPENDIX: Check List for National Ocean Service (NOS) Procedures for Developing and

Implementing Operational Forecast Systems (OFS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This document details the procedures for developing and implementing Operational Nowcast and

Forecast Hydrodynamic Model Systems (hereafter OFS) by NOAA’s National Ocean Service

(NOS). These systems consist of the automated integration of observing system data streams,

hydrodynamic model predictions, product dissemination and continuous quality control monitoring.

State-of-the-art numerical hydrodynamic models driven by real-time data and model forecast

guidance will form the core of these end-to-end systems. The OFS will perform nowcast and shortterm (0 hr. - 48 hr.) forecast predictions of pertinent parameters (i.e., primarily water levels and

currents and in some cases salinity, temperature, waves, etc.) and disseminate the results to users.

OFS will be implemented in critical ports, harbors, estuaries, Great Lakes and coastal waters of the

United States and will join NOAA’s NOS operational oceanographic capabilities to form a national

backbone of real-time data, tidal predictions, data management and operational modeling. This

national backbone will serve a broad base of users that rely on NOS’ product suite for informed

decision making. In addition to improving the safety and efficiency of commercial shipping and

recreational boating, other direct applications of this information include: improving national

security; proactively preventing, mitigating and responding to natural hazards and oil spills;

facilitating safe, efficient and quality recreational use of coastal waters; aiding search and rescue,

forensic and law enforcement operations; improving coastal flood warnings; facilitating coastal

management and stewardship; as well as providing opportunities for basic research. 

NOS’ implementation of these systems will support NOAA’s mission goals of:

• Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem-based

management approaches;

• Serve society’s needs for weather and water information;

• Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally

sound transportation;

and is consistent with the missions, visions and ongoing collaborations of NOS’ Office of Coast

Survey (OCS) Coast Survey Development Laboratory (CSDL) and Center for Operational

Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). In addition, these goals complement proposed

components of the Coastal Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) and the identified role of

a national backbone of observations, data management and modeling (Ocean.US, 2002). NOS has

been a leader in research, development and implementation of OFS for NOS’ Physical

Oceanographic Real-time Systems (PORTS®). Success with these systems has led to developing

long-term strategies for the implementation of OFS.

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INTRODUCTION

Objective

This document details the procedures for developing and implementing Operational Nowcast and

Forecast Hydrodynamic Model Systems (OFS) by NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS). The

OFS consist of the automated integration of observing system data streams, hydrodynamic model

predictions, product dissemination and continuous quality control monitoring. State-of-the-art

numerical hydrodynamic models driven by real-time data and model forecast guidance will form the

core of these end-to-end systems. The OFS will perform nowcast and short-term (0 hr. - 48 hr.)

forecast predictions of pertinent parameters (i.e., primarily water levels and currents and in some

cases salinity, temperature, waves, etc.) and disseminate the results to users via the internet.

Products will include plots of key parameters and model fields in standardized oceanographic

formats. OFS will be implemented in critical ports, harbors, estuaries, Great Lakes and coastal

waters of the United States and will join NOAA’s NOS operational oceanographic capabilities to

form a national backbone of real-time data, tidal predictions, data management and operational

modeling. This national backbone will serve a broad base of users that rely on NOS’ product suite

for informed decision making. In addition to improving the safety and efficiency of commercial

shipping and recreational boating, other direct applications of this information include: improving

national security; proactively preventing, mitigating and responding to natural hazards and oil

spills; facilitating safe, efficient and quality recreational use of coastal waters; aiding search and

rescue, forensic and law enforcement operations; improving coastal flood warnings; facilitating

coastal management and stewardship, as well as providing opportunities for basic research. 

NOS’ implementation of these systems will support NOAA’s mission goals of:

• Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystembased management approaches;

• Serve society’s needs for weather and water information;

• Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and

environmentally sound transportation;

and is consistent with the missions, visions and ongoing collaborations of NOS’ Office of Coast

Survey (OCS) Coast Survey Development Laboratory (CSDL) and Center for Operational

Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). In addition, these goals complement proposed

components of the Coastal Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) and the identified role of

a national backbone of observations, data management and modeling (Ocean.US, 2002). 

NOS has been at the forefront of developing, implementing and maintaining operational

oceanographic observing systems (i.e., the Physical Oceanographic Real-time System (PORTS®)

and National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON)). This has facilitated NOS’ role as a

leader in research and development of prototype forecast systems such as those for New York

Harbor, Chesapeake Bay, Galveston Bay and several other water bodies. In 1999, the Chesapeake

Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) was the first system to be declared operational at NOS.
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The New York/New Jersey Operational Forecast System (NYOFS) joined the operational ranks in

February 2003 and the Houston Galveston Bay system is targeted for operational status during 2003.

The success of these early systems has lead to strategic planning for the development and

implementation of numerous other forecast systems by NOS. In addition, parallel research by other

regional partners will lead to systems that may be selectively transitioned to operational status at

NOS.

NOS must ensure that these systems: meet the needs of constituents; are scientifically sound and

operationally robust; and are authoritative in the face of potential legal challenges. To accomplish

these objectives, this document provides formal NOS procedures for the development and

implementation of operational nowcast and forecast hydrodynamic model systems. All NOS

operational forecast systems should be developed and implemented in adherence to the procedures

contained in this document.

Development and implementation of these OFS is a collaborative endeavor between NOS’

OCS/CSDL and CO-OPS. The research and development tasks will primarily be conducted by

CSDL while the operations and maintenance tasks will be the responsibilities of CO-OPS.

The remainder of this section will provide definitions of key terms, and an introduction to the

required procedure phases, teams and documents. Subsequent sections will provide a detailed

discussion of the requirements of each phase.

Definitions

The integration of automated data streams, model simulations, product dissemination and quality

control monitoring, will constitute an Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic Model

System. For succinctness, these will usually be referred to as an Operational Forecast System(s)

(OFS). Model systems will be declared operational only after they have undergone the rigorous

evaluation and audit procedures defined in this document, and have been implemented in an

operational environment with continuous quality control monitoring.

The hydrodynamic models used will be state-of-the-art, multi-dimensional, time-dependent models

that solve the conservation equations for mass, momentum and other pertinent parameters. Products

of the models will include high resolution spatiotemporal fields, and time series at specific locations

of interest to users. Common inputs (boundary conditions) to these models may include: water

surface elevation, temperature and salinity at the open boundaries; heat, water and momentum (wind

stress) fluxes at the surface; and river fluxes along the lateral boundaries. Product parameters may

vary between systems, but will almost always include water levels and currents which are important

for marine transportation. Some systems may include other parameters such as water temperature,

salinity, density, and surface waves. 

Several distinct categories of model simulations may be conducted during the development and

operations phases (i.e., hindcast, nowcast, forecast and, on-demand cast). During the early

development stage, hindcast model simulations will be performed using static archived data sets.

These simulations are typically done for model calibration and validation. Nowcasts use data sets
3

generated primarily from recent real-time data to simulate the present conditions of the waterbody.

Each nowcast is typically intialized from the results of the previous simulation and typically covers

a time frame of up to one hour. Forecast simulations are also typically initialized from the most

recent nowcast and generally extend 24 to 48 hours into the future. For forecasts, observational data

are not available for forcing, therefore boundary conditions are constructed from various

combinations of predictions (i.e., tidal harmonics), persistence of recent conditions and forecast

model guidance products (winds, subtidal water levels) from larger scale models run by NOAA’s

National Weather Service (NWS) or NOS. In certain operational cases (i.e., oil spills, search and

rescue, forensic investigations) on-demand cast simulations may be conducted that could span

several of these simulation modes.

Procedure Phases

These procedures are designed to provide a logical, efficient process that results in the development

of an accurate, manageable and robust NOS OFS that meets the needs of constituents. Technical

oversight, user outreach, documentation and formal reviews are key components of the process.

Details of each phase are provided in subsequent sections. The procedural phases are:

• Selection of the Target Waterbody

• Needs, Requirements, and Proposed Solution

• Development of the Quasi-Operational Forecast System

• Implementation of the Operational Forecast System

• Operations, Maintenance, and Enhancements.

Teams

The development and implementation of an OFS within an integrated national backbone will be a

collaborative NOS process requiring administrative guidance, technical review, technical expertise,

and outreach to the primary user groups. The following teams or groups will facilitate this process:

Technical Review Team - The Directors of CO-OPS and OCS will appoint an OFS

Technical Review Team (TRT) to: implement the Directors’ objectives for OFS and provide

routine authorizations and oversight during the development and implementation processes

of an OFS. The team will ensure adherence to the procedures contained in this document

and be responsible for providing written authorization for each standard phase of the process.

The TRT will be comprised of the following five standing members: the Deputy Director of

CO-OPS, the Chief of OCS/CSDL, the Chief of the OCS/CSDL Marine Modeling and

Analysis Programs (MMAP), the CO-OPS Chief Scientist, and the CO-OPS OFS Program

Scientist. The TRT will utilize the considerable expertise of other NOS staff, and may add

other members to the team if needed. 
4

System Design and Implementation Team- At the beginning of the process for a proposed

OFS, the TRT will assemble a System Design and Implementation Team (SDIT). The SDIT

will be lead by the CO-OPS OFS Program Scientist and will typically be comprised of

approximately seven members.

 

In general, the model developers (i.e., CSDL and/or external developers) will provide two

representatives to the team (i.e., a lead and oversight developer). For quality assurance and

the efficient transfer of technology, the oversight developer should have recent experience

in the successful implementation of an NOS OFS. Remaining members of this team will

be drawn from CO-OPS and CSDL (and possibly external partners) with expertise in

operational oceanography or meteorology, information technology, data acquisition,

numerical modeling, and the project water body. Due to their knowledge of the local water

body and contacts with users, the PORTS® Site Representative and/or the Regional

Navigation Manager should be members of the team and be instrumental in facilitating

communication with users.

 

Although the model developers will perform much of the detailed setup, the remainder of

the team will provide significant input, review and oversight. The entire team is responsible

for ensuring the efficient development of an NOS OFS that will accurately and reliably meet

the needs of the intended user groups. 

Key Users and Evaluators (Users) - The Key Users and Evaluators (hereafter Users) are

select members of the commercial shipping, port operations, recreational boating, hazardous

material spill response, military and homeland security, and search and rescue communities

that will use the guidance products provided by the OFS. Using the PORTS® Site

Representative and/or the Regional Navigation Manager to facilitate communications, the

SDIT will coordinate with select members of these groups throughout the project. Important

contributions of the Users will include providing needs and requirements at the beginning,

and feedback and comments during the design process. Users will also be asked to evaluate

the quasi-operational system products during the final evaluation stage.

Resulting Documents

For each phase (and in some cases stages) the SDIT will prepare a specific concise technical

document. These will be reviewed by the TRT to determine if the phase has been successfully

completed. Based upon the review of each document, the TRT will issue memorandums authorizing

advancement to the next phase/stage.

The following documents will be generated, reviewed and approved during the development and

implementation of an OFS:

• Needs, Requirements and Proposed Solution Plan

• Description and Skill Assessment of the Hydrodynamic Model

• Description and Skill Assessment of the Quasi-Operational Forecast System

• Operational Forecast System Implementation Plan
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• Description of the Operational Forecast System and Standard Operating Procedures Plan

• SDIT Memorandum Recommending Operational Status

• TRT Memorandums of Authorized Action (for each phase/stage)

• Director of CO-OPS Memorandum of NOS Operational Status

• Communications Plan (i.e., Press Release, CO-OPS Project Handout etc.)

• Annual Operations and Skill Report

Information required for the major documents is detailed in the appropriate procedural phase

sections. 

Application to Forecast Systems already in Development

In some cases existing experimental systems from NOS or other external collaborating institutions

may be identified for implementation as an NOS OFS. The procedures and documents defined

herein should be followed for these systems wherever possible. Any deviations and modifications

permitted will be determined by the TRT. The TRT and SDIT will review the state of development

of the existing experimental system. The TRT will decide which procedures have been successfully

completed, and which procedures need to be completed before the system gains NOS acceptance.

In certain cases, extensive retrofitting and revision of systems may be required. 

National Operational Coastal Modeling Program Strategic Plan

Each individual OFS will be a component within a national backbone of operational oceanographic

capabilities including real-time observations, tidal predictions, data management, and operational

modeling. The Directors of CO-OPS and OCS, and the Steering Committee of the National

Operational Coastal Modeling Program (NOCMP) with assistance from the TRT, will promulgate

a NOCMP Strategic Plan to guide this objective. This document will serve as a foundation for other

relevant NOS planning documents and include a framework of the proposed number, locations,

schedules, objectives, standards, development, operations, and partnerships for NOS OFS through

Fiscal Year 2008. Completion of this document will be a priority of the Directors, Steering

Committee and TRT, and will be revised and extended as needed. 

To achieve maximum efficiency in development and benefits to constituents, the NOCMP Strategic

Plan will be closely coordinated with the strategic planning for other NOS operational oceanography

programs (PORTS® Program, National Water Level Observation Program, National Current

Observation Program etc.).
6
7

PROCEDURE PHASES

Phase 1: Selection of the Target Water Body

This phase initiates the potential development of an NOS OFS for a waterbody. Using the NOCMP

Strategic Plan as a guide, the TRT, with guidance from the Directors of CO-OPS and OCS, will

select the next water body to be considered. At this point the TRT will select the core members of

the SDIT and provide them with a TRT Memorandum of Authorized Action to evaluate the merits

of an OFS for the specified water body.

Phase 2: Needs, Requirements, and Proposed Solution 

The objective of this phase is to identify the oceanographic guidance needs and requirements, to

examine potential OFS solutions, and to identify the resources required to implement them. The

SDIT will summarize this information in the Needs, Requirements and Proposed Solution Plan

which will be submitted to the TRT. The TRT, with guidance from the Directors of CO-OPS and

OCS, will review this document and respond with an official memorandum (TRT Memorandum of

Authorized Action) approving a course of action (options include no further action, referring the

issue to other providers, or further NOS involvement). If the TRT authorizes further NOS

involvement, the SDIT will initiate Phase 3 of the procedure. Additional members may be added to

the SDIT in this case.

• When preparing the Needs, Requirements, and Proposed Solution Plan, the SDIT will obtain

feedback from representatives of the Users such as: ship pilots, port facility operators, U.S.

Navy, U.S. Coast Guard Search and Rescue, NOAA HAZMAT, National Weather Service

(NWS) marine forecasters, marine resource managers, and recreational boaters. During this

outreach, the SDIT will relay examples of NOS nowcast and forecast hydrodynamic modeling

systems in other waters to illustrate NOS capabilities. The purpose of this outreach and

coordination is to ensure that the SDIT will clearly define the Users’ needs and requirements

for nowcast and forecast oceanographic guidance and to gain initial support for developing

an NOS OFS. Once the requirements are clearly defined, the SDIT will evaluate whether an

OFS is the appropriate solution to meet the Users’ needs. When warranted, the SDIT will

recommend alternative solutions or no further action. If an OFS is the selected solution, the

SDIT will generate the general specifications and resources required for the proposed system.

The following information will be included in the Needs, Requirements and Proposed

Solution Plan;

 

• objectives of the OFS (i.e., Users, needs, requirements) 

• recommended action

and if development and implementation of an NOS OFS is the proposed action;

• model requirements (i.e., model domain, horizontal and vertical grid resolution, model

selection, boundary conditions etc.)

• dissemination requirements (proposed products) 
8

• observational data requirements (i.e., existing, proposed, internal and external)

• data/information acquisition requirements (i.e., existing, proposed, internal and external)

• skill assessment procedures (i.e., Hess et al., (2003), NOS (1999) or other accepted CSDL and

CO-OPS procedures that are applicable to the system 

• hardware, software and connectivity requirements

• development, programming and software engineering requirements

• personnel requirements

• budget resources

• schedule.

Phase 3: Development of the Quasi-Operational Forecast System

The development of the Quasi-Operational Forecast System Phase is composed of two sequential

stages: Setup and Evaluation of the Hydrodynamic Model and Construction and Evaluation of the

Quasi-Operational Forecast System. 

Stage 1: Setup and Evaluation of the Hydrodynamic Model

The SDIT will use the Needs, Requirements and Proposed Solution Plan as a guide during the

setup of the Hydrodynamic Model. During this stage there will be significant interaction and

feedback between the model developers and other members of the SDIT in order to identify and

incorporate necessary refinements at an early stage. Feedback from key Users should also be

obtained at this stage. This stage allows the SDIT to understand the merits and limitations of

the selected modeling method before major investments of time and resources are made. 

Typically, only archived data/information sets (i.e., hindcast) will be used during this stage to

conduct model testing, refinement and calibration/validation. All skill assessment tests should

adhere to standard CSDL and CO-OPS procedures that are relevant to the system (e.g., NOS

(1999), Hess (2003), etc.).

The SDIT will summarize the results of this stage in the Description and Skill Assessment of the

Hydrodynamic Model. This document will include information regarding the model description,

references, configuration, required inputs and outputs, and hindcast calibration skill. The SDIT

will present this Plan to the TRT. If the TRT approves this documentation, it will issue a TRT

Memorandum of Authorized Action for the SDIT to initiate development of a Quasi-Operational

Forecast System for the waterbody.

Stage 2: Construction and Evaluation of the Quasi-Operational Forecast System

In this stage, the Hydrodynamic Model will be converted to the Quasi-Operational Forecast

System by establishing the connections to automated inputs. To facilitate efficient development,

robust operations, and future upgrades, the Quasi-Operational Systems must strictly conform to

CSDL/CO-OPS standardized templates and operational inputs wherever practicable. Any

deviations from the standard templates must be extensively justified and approved by the SDIT

and TRT. 
9

The nowcast and forecast cycle simulations of the Quasi-Operational System will be run in an

automated mode for at least six months, while its reliability, skill, and products are evaluated.

Skill assessment of the nowcast and forecast model outputs must be conducted following

standard or accepted CSDL and CO-OPS procedures (e.g., NOS (1999), Hess (2003)) that are

appropriate to the waterbody and the objectives of the OFS.

In order to obtain feedback from the SDIT members and Users, the system products will be

displayed on a restricted access project web site. The SDIT is encouraged to present the results

at scientific conferences and in journals in order to obtain feedback from peers outside of NOS.

The SDIT will also notify Users of the availability of the Quasi-Operational forecast products

and to select volunteers to evaluate the system. The SDIT will use the results of this feedback

in making refinements to the system.

The SDIT will prepare the Description and Skill Assessment of the Quasi-Operational Forecast

System. This will include information regarding the model description, operational inputs and

outputs, and an evaluation of the nowcast and forecast skill. The SDIT will present this Plan to

the TRT. If the TRT approves the Quasi-Operational Forecast System and its documentation,

it will issue an TRT Memorandum of Authorized Action for the SDIT to initiate the

implementation phase.

Phase 4: Implementation of the Operational Forecast System

Stage 1: Preparation of the Implementation Plan

The SDIT will prepare the Operational Forecast System Implementation Plan which will detail

the tasks, staff assignments, schedule and resources needed to transition the system to

operational status. The TRT must approve this plan to authorize the migration to operations.

Stage 2: Migration to the Operational Environment

As noted, the Quasi-Operational System will be efficiently developed using CSDL/CO-OPS

standardized templates and operational inputs. Therefore, in most cases, migration to the COOPS operational environment will not require major retrofitting of the system

Using the strategy provided in the Operational Forecast System Implementation Plan, the SDIT

will install and migrate all required system programs, software, and hardware to the CO-OPS

operational environment. A critical distinction must be understood here: although the system

will be functioning in an operational environment at this time, it is still not an Operational

Forecast System. 

Stage 3: Final Evaluation, Documentation, and Training Requirements for the QuasiOperational Forecast System in an Operational Environment

Evaluation of the system in an operational environment will be conducted for a minimum of

three months. Since the system skill has already been established in previous phases, the

purpose of this stage is to evaluate the system reliability, prepare final documentation, and train

the staff responsible for operational maintenance and monitoring. 
10

After the migration has been completed, two sequential one-month audits of the QuasiOperational Forecast System will be conducted by the SDIT. During these audit periods the

timeliness and reliability of inputs and outputs will be monitored by the SDIT. Each of the audit

periods will include a rigorous formal testing of all contingencies, recovery/diagnostic

procedures and system status indicators (i.e., flags). If notable technical difficulties are

identified, modifications and retesting will be required. 

During the testing, the SDIT will prepare The Description of the Operational Forecast System

and Standard Operating Procedures Plan. The purpose of this important document is to describe

the operational details of the total forecast system (including all operational inputs and products),

and the methodology for operating, maintaining and troubleshooting the system.

Upon successful completion of the audit periods, and the preparation of The Description of the

Operational Forecast System and Standard Operating Procedures Plan, the SDIT will provide

training to the Continuous Operational Monitoring System (CORMS) staff (Gill et al., 1997).

When this is complete, the CORMS staff will initiate monitoring of the forecast system and

follow all procedures prescribed in the above document. This test monitoring will continue for

a period of one month.

When all of the above steps have been successfully completed, the SDIT Memorandum

Recommending Operational Status will be prepared stating:

• the forecast system has been developed following CSDL and CO-OPS procedures and

standards;

• the forecast system has been successfully migrated, audited and documented;

• the CORMS and other operational staff have been sufficiently trained;

• a one month period following full standard operational procedures and monitoring has

been successfully completed;

• a recommendation that the system should receive NOS operational status on a specified

date and time.

Stage 4: Declaration of Operational Status

The SDIT will present the memorandum to the TRT for their review and approval. If the TRT

approves the memorandum, they will prepare a Director of CO-OPS Memorandum of NOS

Operational Status for the forecast system. This memorandum will state that the forecast system

has been developed in accordance with NOS procedures, include any pertinent disclaimers, and

announce the date and time that the system officially becomes NOS operational. This document

must be approved and signed by the Director of CO-OPS. At the specified date and time, the

system will become an NOS Operational Forecast System and products will be made available

to the public.

Stage 5: Communications Plan

An important component of these procedures is routine outreach and communication with the

Users. This will be expanded on just prior to and after the system obtains operational status.
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The SDIT will prepare a brief (approximately one page) text press release for submittal to and

processing by NOAA’s public relations staff. A one page (front and back) CO-OPS project

handout with a concise project overview and supporting graphics will also be prepared.

The PORTS® Site Representative and/or the Regional Navigation Manager will facilitate

communications with the key User groups and arrange for presentations of the operational

system. This will include training of key Users on the use of the system products. Outreach and

communication with Users will be an ongoing function of the OFS Program.

Phase 5: Operations, Maintenance, and Enhancements

The normal operations, maintenance, and monitoring of the OFS will be conducted by CO-OPS

staff. The CO-OPS OFS Program Scientist will be the primary technical point of contact for the

system. Continuous monitoring of the system will be provided by CORMS. Quality control

monitoring, emergency repairs and troubleshooting, will follow the procedures established in The

Description of the Operational Forecast System and Standard Operating Procedures Plan. 

Routine maintenance, trouble shooting and required minor modifications to the system will be

conducted by CO-OPS staff following established version control procedures. CSDL staff will

continue to provide technical assistance on major issues when needed. Major modifications will

require the approval of the SDIT and TRT, and must be thoroughly tested and documented prior to

implementation.

 

An Annual Operations and Skill Report will be prepared at the end of each operational year. The

report will detail the system reliability and skill during the past year. CO-OPS staff will be

responsible for documenting and reporting the system reliability while CSDL staff will document

the system skill using procedures consistent with those used in assessment of the Quasi-Operational

Forecast System (e.g., NOS (1999), Hess (2003)). The TRT will review this report and issue a

Memorandum of Authorized Action that will specify what improvements or retrofitting, if any, are

necessary to be completed to continue NOS operational status.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This report is a product of ongoing collaboration in operational oceanography between NOS’ COOPS and OCS/CSDL. Kurt Hess and Kathryn Bosley are credited for an earlier version of this

document (NOS, 1999). Valuable suggestions and insight were provided by numerous staff

members of CSDL and CO-OPS. 

REFERENCES

The section includes references cited in this document as well as several other references that are

pertinent to operational oceanography at NOS.

Cohen, Robert, A. Allen, J. Kendall, J. Berkson and M. Szabados, 2002. Facilitating Safe and

Efficient Marine Operations: A Theme for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System. Ocean.US
12

National Office for Integrated and Sustained Ocean Observations. Technical Report Prepared for

the March 10-15 Ocean.US. Workshop. http://www.ocean.us/projects/wsbackgroundpapers.jsp

Davidson, Margaret, Greg Mandt and others, 2002. Mitigating Natural and Anthropogenic Hazards:

A Theme for the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System. Ocean.US National Office for Integrated

and Sustained Ocean Observations. Technical Report Prepared for the March 10-15 Ocean.US.

Workshop. http://www.ocean.us/projects/wsbackgroundpapers.jsp

Gill, S., W. Stoney, and T. Bethem, 1997. System Development Plan. CORMS: Continuous

Operational Real-Time Monitoring System. NOAA Technical Report NOS OES 14. U.S Department

of Commerce, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD. 41 pp.

Hess, K., 2003. Standards for Evaluation of NOS Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic

Model Systems. NOAA Technical Report (in development). U.S Department of Commerce, NOAA,

Silver Spring, MD. 

Lautenbacher, C. C., 2002a. Written Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. USN

(RET) Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere, Administrator National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration, U.S. DOC before the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy, St.

Petersburg, FL, March 13, 2002. http://www.noaa.gov/lautenbacher/ocean-us.htm

Lautenbacher, C. C., 2002b. Written Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. USN

(RET) Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere, Administrator National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration, U.S. DOC before the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy, Honolulu,

HI, May 13, 2002. http://www.noaa.gov/lautenbacher/oceanpolicy.htm

Lautenbacher, C. C. 2003. The Need for a Global Observing System. Written Statement of Vice

Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. USN (RET) Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere,

Administrator National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. DOC before the 2003

American Meteorological Society Conference, February 11, 2003, Long Beach, CA.

http://www.noaa.gov/lautenbacher/ams2003.htm

NOPP, 2000. National Oceanographic Partnership Program(NOPP) Memorandum of Agreement for

Establishing a NOPP Interagency Ocean Observation System.

NOS, 1999. NOS Procedures for Developing and Implementing Operational Nowcast and Forecast

Systems for PORTS. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 0020. U.S Department of Commerce,

NOAA, Silver Spring, MD. 33 pp.

Ocean.US, 2002. An Integrated and Sustained Ocean Observing System (IOOS) For the United

States: Design and Implementation. Ocean.US, Arlington, VA. 21pp.

http://www.ocean.us/projects/papers/post/FINAL-ImpPlan-NORLC.pdf
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APPENDIX
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APPENDIX: Check List for National Ocean Service (NOS) Procedures for Developing and ImplementForecast Systems (OFS)This table provides a sequential check list of the primary tasks, documents, and memorandums required to deNOS OFS. Additional information on requirements for documents and phases is provided in the main report

PHASE STAGE ACTION, DOCUMENT* or MEMORANDU1. Selection of the TargetWater Body

Selection of the Water Body to be considered by Technical Review Team (TRT) with guidance frDirectors of CO-OPS and OCSSelection of core members of the System Design Implementation Team (SDIT)TRT Memorandum of Authorized Action*

2. Needs, Requirements andProposed Solution 

User outreach and coordinationIdentify needs and requirementsIdentify proposed solutionNeeds, Requirements and Proposed Solution Pla

TRT Memorandum of Authorized Action* Selection of remaining members of the SDIT

3. Development of the QuasiOperational Forecast System Stage 1: Setup and Evaluation of the Hydrodynamic Model Setup and hindcast calibration/validation of the Hydrodynamic Model

User outreach and coordination
PHASE STAGE ACTION, DOCUMENT* or MEMORANDU

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Description and Skill Assessment of the HydrodyModel*TRT Memorandum of Authorized Action*

Stage 2: Construction andEvaluation of the QuasiOperational Forecast System

Connection of the system to automateddata/information streams using standardizedCSDL/CO-OPS templatesSkill assessment of the nowcast and forecast sysan automated mode (i.e., semi-operational)User outreach and coordinationPresentation to the scientific community (i.e.,conferences, journals)Description and Skill Assessment of the QuasiOperational Forecast System*TRT Memorandum of Authorized Action*

Phase 4: Implementation ofthe Operational ForecastSystem

Stage 1: Preparation of theImplementation Plan

Operational Forecast System Implementation PTRT Memorandum of Authorized Action*

Stage 2: Migration to theOperational Environment

Migration to operational environment
PHASE STAGE ACTION, DOCUMENT* or MEMORANDU

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Stage 3: Final Evaluation,Documentation and TrainingRequirements for the QuasiOperational Forecast System inan Operational Environment

Description of the Operational Forecast System Standard Operating Procedures Plan*Two one month audits by SDITCORMS trainingOne month CORMS monitoringSDIT Memorandum Recommending OperationaStatus*

Stage 4: Declaration ofOperational Status

Director of CO-OPS Memorandum of NOSOperational Status* 

Stage 5: Communications Plan Press Release* (one page text)

CO-OPS Project Handout* (one page front and text and graphics) Presentations to Users

Phase 5: Operations,Maintenance andEnhancements

Annual Operations and Skill Report*TRT Memorandum of Authorized Action*