# Appendix H

Emissions Modeling

Deviation From DefaultsEmissions Modeling Deviation from Defaults i The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix H North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007Emissions Modeling Deviation from Defaults ii The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix H North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

### Table Of Contents

1 Introduction................................................................................................................ ................. 1 1 Deviation From Everyday Modeling .......................................................................................... 1
2 Point Source Deviation ...................................................................................................... ......... 2



### List Of Tables

Table1. Representative Time Period for Emissions Modeling ...................................................... 2 Table 2. Comparison of 2009 emissions for Duke and Progress compliance plans vs. IPM. ....... 3Emissions Modeling Deviation from Defaults iii The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix H North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007Emissions Modeling Deviation from Defaults 1 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix H North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 1 Introduction

The emissions modeling for the Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-hour ozone nonattainment area was performed in conjunction with the regional haze modeling being done by the Southeast Regional Planning Organization, Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) and th e fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone modeling being done by the Association of South eastern Integrated Planning (ASIP). VISTAS and ASIP are run by the ten Southeast states (A labama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia. The emissions preprocessing model used to ready the emissions for input into the air quality model was the Spare Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system.

1 Deviation From Everyday Modeling

The VISTAS/ASIP modeling was an annual simulation. It would be too resource intensive to process all sources sectors for everyday of the year. Therefore, to produce an emissions inventory to support the annual modeling, representative time periods were selected and modeled.

The area and nonroad mobile sources were modeled as a block of Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, one per month (total of 60 days modeled for the annual simulation). Similarly, the on-road mobile sources were represented by an entire single week for each month. This selection criteria allows for the representation of day-of-the-week variability in the on-road motor vehicles, and models a representation of the meteorological variability in each month.

The stationary point sources, which include th e electric generating units (EGUs) and Non-EGUs, were modeled everyday of the annual simulation. This was due to the plume rise calculations used to parse the emissions into the various layers of the model is different everyday depending on the meteorological inputs. Additionally, VIST AS/ASIP modeled large wildland fires as day specific sources with plume rise incorporated into the emissions modeling. Similar to the stationary point sources, the biogenic emissions were modeled everyday of the annual simulation since the amount of volatile organic compounds emitted is significantly impacted by temperature and solar radiation.

For the area, nonroad mobile and on-road mobile sources, the holidays were modeled as a Sunday. Table 1 describes the representative time period for all source categories.Emissions Modeling Deviation from Defaults 2 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix H North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Table1. Representative Time Period for Emissions Modeling

Source Category BaseG frequency of run Area Sources 5 days per month Biogenic Everyday Canada_area 5 days per month Canada_point 5 days per month Dust 5 days per month EGU Everyday Fire_cenrap Everyday Hi_file_typ Everyday Lo_file_typ 5 days per month Mexico_area 5 days per month Mexico_point 5 days per month mms_area 5 days per month mms_point Everyday Non-EGU Everyday Nonroad Mobile 5 days per month On-road Mobile 7 days per month

2 Point Source Deviation

The VISTAS/ASIP emissions modeling used results from the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to generate future year emissions for the E GU source sector. Duke Energy and Progress Energy updated their plans for complying with North Carolina’s Clean Smokestacks Act and the emission projections for the plans varied substantia lly from the IPM results (Table 2). Therefore, the North Carolina Division of Air Quality (NC DAQ) replaced the IPM emission projections for 2009 with projections from the 2006 Duke Energy and Progress Energy compliance plans. The Clean Smokestacks Act can be found in Appendix M.

Another point source deviation was the temporal profiles used for the typical emissions for the EGU source sector. Instead of using the 2002 continuous emissions monitoring (CEM) profiles for the EGUs, a typical temporal profile wa s created using data from 2000 through 2004. How the typical temporal profiles were generated is discussed in detail in Appendix F.1.Emissions Modeling Deviation from Defaults 3 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix H North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007

Table 2. Comparison of 2009 emissions for Duke and Progress compliance plans vs. IPM.

Facility Compliance Plan 2009 NOx (tpy) IPM 2009 NOx (tpy)

Duke Energy Facilities Allen 5,774 3,018 Belews Creek 4,296 5,230 Buck 1,713 1,788 Cliffside 2,740 2,619 Dan River 1,539 1,134 Marshall 12,903 12,262 Riverbend 1,944 1,989 Total Duke Energy 30,909 28,040

Progress Energy Facilities Asheville 3,057 1,049 Cape Fear 1,350 1,249 Lee 3,110 3,901 Mayo 1,741 1,748 Roxboro 6,350 4,069 Sutton 5,840 4,361 Weatherspoon 2,822 2,239 Total Progress Energy 24,270 18,616