_ a , 3 •• ^.^-11

Our Changing Economy:

A BLS Centennial Chartbook

U.S. Department of Labor 

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

1984

Bulletin 2211
U.S. Department of Labor 

Raymond J. Donovan, Secretary

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner 

August 1984

Bulletin 2211
Our Changing Economy:

A BLS Centennial Chartbook

A

 century ago, in 1884, Congress established a Bureau of 

Labor— later named the 

Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Bureau 

was to be a permanent and independent agency to “ collect information’’ 

on the earnings and working conditions of “ laboring men and women.’’ 

Founded almost 20 years before the 

Bureau of the Census was established, 

BLS was thus a forerunner of a 

Federal statistical establishment that 

now includes a number of agencies in 

departments and commissions 

throughout government.

The Bureau’s present program 

arose from clearly recognizable social 

needs. For example, during World War I,

the need to adjust wages in shipyards 

to rapidly rising prices led to the 

development of a cost-of-living 

measure that later became the Consumer Price Index. Other BLS programs developed in similar fashion to 

answer the needs of business, labor, 

Congress, and the public for information on economic and social trends. 

Today, the Bureau publishes a wide 

array of detailed data on the labor 

force, employment and unemployment, 

earnings and hours of work, prices 

and living conditions, industrial relations, productivity and economic 

growth, occupational injuries and illnesses, and related subjects.

This chartbook celebrates 100 years 

of BLS statistics. Some charts reveal 

the long continuity of the Bureau’s 

series; others show the agency’s 

response to recent demands for data 

on new or emerging economic 

phenomena. The booklet gives a 

graphic picture of some of the 

changes in the American economy 

during the past century. The Bureau’s 

regular publications, listed in the back 

of the book, contain more comprehensive and detailed information on 

changing economic trends.

The chartbook was prepared in the 

Office of Publications by Constance 

Bogh DiCesare, Chief of the Division 

of Special Publications, with the 

cooperation of the various program offices of the Bureau. Eugene H. Becker 

was the editor. Material in this publication is in the public domain and may, 

with appropriate credit, be reproduced 

without permission.

3

Contents

Charts Pages

Preface 1

Employment and unemployment statistics 1 to 11 4

Productivity and technology 12 to 15 16

Wages and industrial relations 16 to 25 22

Prices and living conditions 26 to 37 34

Occupational safety and health 38 to 39 46

Economic growth and employment projections 40 to 43 48

A note on sources — 52
Employment and Unemployment Statistics 4

The labor force grew rapidly in the past century

W

hen the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics was created in 

1884, the American labor 

force numbered 16 million persons. A 

century later, the Nation’s work force 

had grown to over 110 million. Labor 

force growth came from different 

sources over the period. In the early 

decades, European immigrants swelled the work force. From 1910 to 1940, 

internal population growth accounted 

for most of the increase. Since 1950, 

the increasing proportion of women 

taking jobs outside the home has been 

an important contributor to labor force 

growth.
5

The labor force

consists of

employed and

unemployed men

and women

Women’s labor

force

participation

increased

dramatically after

1950. By 1983,

more than half of

all women were

in the labor force

Millions of persons 

120 —

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 19801983

Chart 1. Civilian labor force by sex, selected years, 1880-1983

Chart 2. Labor force participation rates by sex, selected years, 

1890-1983
Employment and Unemployment Statistics 6

The rising proportion of women in the labor force has

many implications

T

he proportion of women 

who are in the labor force 

has grown from one-third in 

1950 to more than half today. Since 

1970, nearly half of the increase has 

been among women age 25 to 34. In 

1983, 1 out of 4 women workers was 

in this age group. In contrast, of the 

32 million women who were full-time 

homemakers, 6 out of 10 were 45 

years or older. Consistent with these 

developments has been a rise in the 

proportion of children with a mother in 

the labor force— to almost 60 percent 

of school-age children and 48 percent 

of preschoolers. Although participation 

rates for men continue to exceed 

those for women, the gap has narrowed considerably. Men were 2 - V 2

times as likely as women to be in the 

labor force in 1950 but are only 1-1/2 

times as likely today.
7

Fewer women are

full-time

housekeepers

Chart 3. Labor force status of women, 1962 and 1983

Women can

expect to spend

more years in the

labor market

Chart 4. Life expectancy and worklife expectancy of women, 

selected years, 1950-80
Employment and Unemployment Statistics 8

Family patterns have continued to change

T

he composition and nature 

of American families 

changed very gradually 

from 1880 to the beginning of World 

War II. During the war, an unprecedented number of women took 

jobs outside the home, thus altering 

the traditional pattern of family life. A 

decline in fertility dating from the mid 

1960’s (along with changing attitudes 

about the role of women) further increased women's interest in working. 

The price inflation of recent years, 

coupled with rising expectations in living standards, also has enforced the 

trend toward two-earner, marriedcouple families, and there also has 

been an increase in the number of 

families maintained by women.
9

Nearly two-thirds

of all marriedcouple families

have 2 or more

workers

Chart 5. Married-couple families by number of workers, 1955 

and 1983

The proportion of

families

maintained by

women has

increased

Chart 6. Families maintained by women as a percent of all 

families, 1960-83
Since 1900, employment growth has been shifting from

industries that provide goods to those that furnish

services

M

ost of the employment growth 

in the past three decades has 

been in industries which produce services rather than goods. 

Among the industries creating the 

greatest number of jobs since 1950 

have been State and local government, trade, and services such as 

health care. In 1983, of the 90 million 

employees in nonfarm jobs, 67 million, 

or more than 7 out of 10, worked in 

service-producing industries.

Employment and Unemployment Statistics 10
11

The shift from

goods to services

was especially

marked after 1950

Growth in service

industries has

spurred the

expansion in

clerical and

professional jobs

Proportion of jobs

Chart 7. Nonagricultural employment by major economic 

sector, 1900, 1950, and 1983

Clerical workers 

Professionals 

Service workers 

Operatives 

Craft workers 

Managers 

Sales workers 

Non-farm laborers 

Farm workers

^ _____________

1982

0 5 10 15 20

Millions of persons

Chart 8. Employed workers by major occupations, 

1950 and 1982
Employment and Unemployment Statistics 12

Sharp increases in unemployment have been a recurring

problem

S

ince the end of World War II, 

there have been eight recessions. During each downturn, 

the rate of unemployment rose shar

and then usually declined markedly in 

the recovery phase of the business cycle. Improvements, however, generally 

failed to bring the unemployment rate 

completely back to prerecession 

levels. Thus, unemployment has had a 

long-term upward trend since 1970. In 

1982, the unemployment rate rose to 

a record 10.7 percent; by June 1984, it 

had dropped to 7.1 percent.
13

The

unemployment

rate is primarily

an indication of

the amount of

unused labor in

the economy

currently available

Note: Shaded areas 

represent recessions.

Chart 9. Civilian unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted, 1948-83
14

Some groups suffer more unemployment than others

T

he Nation’s average unemployment rate is a good indicator 

of the overall health of the 

economy, but it tells only part of the 

story. Some groups suffer much more 

unemployment than others, whether 

the economy is prosperous or 

distressed.

Unemployment generally is more 

than twice as high among blacks as it 

is among whites, and is especially high 

among teenage blacks. Young people 

of all races suffer much more 

unemployment than adults over 35.

Unemployment also varies among 

regions. It tends to be higher in the 

heavily industrialized States east of the 

Mississippi than in the rest of the 

country. It varies, too, by industry. 

Workers in goods-producing industries, 

such as steel and autos, and in construction, experience greater 

unemployment than do workers in 

service industries such as banking.

Employment and Unemployment Statistics
15

Minorities and

youth are

vulnerable

Unemployment rate 

25 -

Black White Hispanic 16-19 20-24 25-54 55 +

Chart 10. Unemployment rates by race, Hispanic origin, 

and age, 1983

School dropouts

are at risk

Unemployment rate

30 —

2 5 - 

20- 

1 5 - 

10 — 

5 -

0 —

Graduates (with 

4 years high 

school or some 

college)

Students 

(enrolled in 

school)

Dropouts (less 

than 4 years 

high school)

Chart 11. Unemployment rates of youth 16-24 years of age by 

school enrollment and years of school completed, October 1983
Productivity and Technology 16

Today’s workers produce five times as much in an hour

as workers did early in the century

I

n the 100 years since the BLS was 

founded, American workers have 

steadily increased the quantity of 

goods and services they produce in an 

hour. Advances in technology, greater 

capital investment, and the increasing 

skill and education of workers all have 

contributed to this rise in productivity.

Since the early 1900’s, worker productivity has risen an average of 2.5 

percent a year, but movements over 

shorter spans have deviated from this 

trend. Between 1947 and 1973, productivity advanced 3 percent a year.

In the past decade, however, the rate 

slowed to just above 1 percent.
17

Productivity has

grown strongly

over the past 71/2

decades

Index, 1909 = 1 00 Ratio scale

5 0 0 -

Chart 12. Output per hour, private sector economy, 1909-83
Productivity and Technology 18

New ways to measure productivity have increased our

understanding of changes in worker output

E

arly in the century, the Bureau 

of Labor Statistics began 

measuring what a worker produces in an hour on the job. This way 

of measuring productivity rests on the 

relationship of output to a single input— worker hours. Last year, the 

Bureau began publishing a new productivity measure that relates what 

workers produce to the combined input of their labor and of capital 

investment.

This measure, a multifactor productivity yardstick, sheds additional light 

on the rise in American worker output 

since World War II. Between 1948 and 

1982, multifactor productivity in private 

business grew about 1.4 percent a 

year. The first 25 years of that period 

saw rapid improvement (2-percent) annual growth) followed by deceleration 

(no growth from 1973 on).
19

Multifactor

productivity

indexes take

account of capital

as well as labor

inputs

Chart 13. Output per hour of all persons, output per unit of 

capital, and multifactor productivity, private business sector, 

1948-82
Productivity and Technology 20

Productivity is an important determinant of prices and

costs

P

rices, costs, and productivity 

relate to one another in complex ways. Since I960, price 

and cost trends have moved in an opposite direction from productivity 

changes. Hourly compensation rose 

more after the mid-1960’s than before, 

while the rate of productivity improvement slowed. As a result, unit labor 

costs accelerated. This inverse relationship continued in 1983, a year 

when productivity improvements were 

accompanied by a slowing of unit 

labor cost increases.

A generally opposite relationship 

also exists between price changes and 

productivity changes in industries. For 

example, between 1960 and 1981, 

prices declined or rose slowly for 

hosiery, telephone communication, 

and radio and TV sets, while productivity rose in these industries at aboveaverage rates. In contrast, prices 

climbed strongly for footwear, steel, 

and wood office furniture— industries 

where productivity change over the 

period was comparatively low.
21

Unit labor costs

tend to rise when

productivity

growth slows

Prices generally

rise more rapidly

when productivity

increases

slowly

Output per hour - all persons

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Chart 14. Output per hour of all persons, unit labor costs, and 

compensation in the business sector, 1948-83

Average annual percent change 

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 45678

Synthetic fibers 

Telephone communications 

Radio and TV sets

Drug and proprietary 

stores

Motor vehicles and equip.

Hotels, motels

Steel

Retail food stores

Metal-forming

machines

- Prices

= Output per hour

Chart 15. Output per employee hour and prices, average annual 

percent change selected industries, 1960-81
Wages and Industrial Relations 22

Collective bargaining contributes to changing

pay patterns

S

ince the early 1900’s, membership in a union (or coverage 

under a collective bargaining 

agreement) generally has resulted in 

pay levels that are higher than those 

of nonunion workers. Differences in 

the rates of increase in pay of union 

and nonunion workers, as measured 

by the Bureau’s Employment Cost Index, were especially large in 1980, a 

year of double-digit inflation. The high 

inflation rate triggered large cost-ofliving increases for workers covered 

by union contracts. More recently, increases in prices and rates of pay 

have slowed for all workers.

Historically, wage differences between skilled and unskilled craftworkers have been substantial, but 

over the past several decades they 

have narrowed considerably. For example, in the building construction 

trades, journeymen’s wages were 

about double those of unskilled 

workers at the turn of the century; by 

the early 1960’s, the difference had 

narrowed to about a third and has 

stabilized at about that level.
23

Wage increases

generally have

been greater for

unionized workers

The gap in wages

between skilled

and unskilled

union workers

has grown

smaller

Chart 16. Percent changes in wages and salaries by 

union status, Employment Cost Index, 1976-83

Chart 17. Average union wage rates for journeymen as a 

percent of rates for helpers and laborers, building 

construction, 1907-80
Wages and Industrial Relations 24

Many factors influence a worker’s pay

Geographic

location of the

job can be a

prime factor in

what a worker

earns. Larger

metropolitan

areas and those

in the Midwest

and West

generally offer

higher pay.

Relative 

wage 

level 

140 -

120 -

100 -

80 -

60 -

40 -

20 - 

0 -

Office clerical workers

Davenport, Iowa Norfolk, Virginia

100 = All metropolitan area average

Chart 18. Geographic location as a wage level determinant, 1982

Women workers

generally earn

less than the

average for their

industry. This is

true in highpaying industries

as well as those

with lower wage

scales.

Percent of production workers 

earning less than average 

100 -

90 - 

80 - 

70 -

Women

Shirt manu- Prepared meat

facturing, products, 1979

1981

Chart 19. Sex as a wage level determinant, 1979 and 1981
25

The industrial

location of a job

can have more

influence on pay

than the work

itself

Skill and

experience are

important

determinants of

wages. Workers

at the same skill

level in different

jobs often earn

comparable pay.

Hourly 

rate 

$15 —

j Mechanic 

Janitor

6 -

3 -

1 2-

9 -

-y Mechanic 

J- Janitor

Petroleum

refining

1981

Corrugated and 

solid fiber boxes 

1981

Chart 20. Industry as a wage level determinant, 1981

Monthly

rate

$ 4000-

Chart 21. Skill as a wage level determinant, 1983
Wages and Industrial Relations 26

Changes in purchasing power reflect the greater

volatility of price rather than wages

W

orkers have received pay 

increases in all but a handful of years during the past 

century. However, because increases 

in purchasing power depend not only 

on changes in workers’ pay but also 

on the prices of goods and services 

they consume, purchasing power has 

not necessarily grown with each pay 

increase. Since the mid-1970’s, wage 

gains have fallen behind price increases, resulting in a decline in a 

worker’s purchasing power, as 

measured by the Employment Cost Index adjusted for changes in the Consumer Price Index. The bulk of the 

decline, however, occurred between 

1978 and 1981. Workers began to 

recover lost purchasing power late in 

1981 as wage gains slowed but as 

price increases declined even faster.
27

Workers’

purchasing power

increased in

1976-77 and again

in 1982-83

Note: Shaded area 

represents change 

in purchasing 

power.

Percent change

1b _____ Consumer Price . Employment Cost Index:

14— Index (CPI) ------ Current dollars

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

Chart 22. Percent change in the Employment Cost Index for 

wages and salaries of private industry workers and in the 

Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical 

workers, 1976-83
Wages and Industrial Relations 28

Workers’ pay and benefits frequently include some protection against catastrophic medical expenses

E

mployee benefits, such as

paid leave, health, insurance, 

and retirement programs, have 

been increasing their share of compensation in the post-World War II era. 

Currently, they make up at least 25 percent of the wage and benefit package. 

Of these benefits, major medical insurance plans have registered among 

the largest gains. Such plans, geared 

toward catastrophic illness or injury, 

now cover 175 million people, up from 

100,000 some 30 years earlier.
29

Major medical Millions

plans are a of persons

popular covered

supplement to 1 7 5 -

workers’ pay 1 5 0 -

125 -

100 -

75 -

5 0 -

2 5 -

0 --------

1951 1960 1970 1982

Chart 23. Workers and dependents covered by major medical 

plans, selected years, 1951-82
Wages and Industrial Relations 30

Wages of many union workers are changed each year

under cost-of-living adjustments

A

s 1984 began, the wages of

almost three-fifths of the nearly 8 million workers covered 

under major collective bargaining 

agreements were subject to automatic 

cost-of-living adjustments (COLA’s). A 

decade earlier, less than a third were 

covered by COLA clauses.

Historically, COLA’s have helped to 

recover some of the purchasing power 

that has been lost as a result of price 

increases. Typically, one-half to twothirds of the rise is recovered when a 

COLA is triggered. (However, some 

COLA clauses decrease wages when 

prices fall.) The size of the adjustment 

depends on several factors, including 

the formula used to calculate the 

COLA— this may include a “ cap” on 

the size of the COLA— and the timing 

of the COLA review process. COLA’s 

generally go into effect after the CPI 

has changed by an amount specified 

in the collective bargaining agreement.
The percentage

of union workers

covered by

COLA’s has been

fairly constant

since 1976

Chart 24. Percent of workers covered by COLA clauses in 

collective bargaining agreements covering 1,000 workers or 

more, 1971-84
Wages and Industrial Relations 32

Although union membership has continued to grow, it

has not kept pace with the increase in the labor force

P

assage in 1935 of the

National Labor Relations Act 

(NLRA)—which guaranteed the 

right of workers to organize and 

bargain collectively— marked the 

beginning of the rapid growth of 

unions in the United States. By the 

end of World War II, U.S. union 

membership had quadrupled to almost 

15 million. Over the following decades, 

membership grew at a much slower 

pace— to about 20 million in 1980.

Despite this expansion in numbers, 

union membership has failed to keep 

up with the growth of the labor force. 

Union representation in the labor force 

in 1980, at about 18 percent, was at 

its lowest level since 1942.

Union membership alone is no 

longer an accurate measure of the 

number of workers represented by 

labor organizations. Since the early 

1960’s, professional and government 

employee associations increasingly 

have shifted to bargaining activities. 

Together, unions and employee 

associations counted 22.4 million U.S. 

workers as members, about one-fifth 

of the labor force.
33

Federal law

provided the

impetus for union

growth in the

1930’s

Note: Starting in 1968, 

includes members of 

employee associations.

Members (in millions) 

2 5 -

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

Chart 25. Union membership in the U.S., 1900-1980
Prices and Living Conditions 34

The trend of consumer prices has changed over the

century

C

onsumer prices were fairly

stable from 1880 until the eve 

of World War I. After the warinduced inflation, prices fell and declined further during the depression of the 

1930’s. But since the start of World 

War II, prices have risen almost continuously, though the annual increases 

were small during the 1953-55 period 

and the early 1960’s.
35

Consumer prices

have risen almost

continuously

since 1940 in

contrast to the

ups and downs of

earlier years

Note: Data 

before 1973 are 

estimated from 

several sources

Index, 1967 = 100 Ratio scale

4 0 -

3 5 -

1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950

I M I I I i M I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I I l I

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Chart 26: Consumer Price Index, 1880-1983
The pace of inflation has varied from year to year

Prices and Living Conditions 36

S

ince 1960, there have been 

three big spurts in consumer 

prices— one during the Vietnam conflict, one following the oil embargo of 1973, and the third during the 

Iranian crisis. Inflation reached a peak 

of more than 14 percent in mid-1980.

Such inflationary surges generally 

reflect a sudden increase in the demand for goods and services, a sharp 

drop in supply, a failure of supply to

keep up with the economy’s growth, 

or a combination of these changes. International events have clearly contributed to supply shortages (the 

worldwide food crisis of 1973-74 and 

the oil cutbacks) and to increases in 

demand (the Vietnam war and other 

defense expenditures). But domestic 

factors— such as government fiscal 

and monetary policies and the rate of 

wage increases— are of fundamental 

importance.

One measure of inflation is the Consumer Price Index, produced by the 

Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is a 

monthly measure of what consumers 

pay for a fixed market basket of goods 

and services that is representative of 

almost everything consumers buy. 

Three components of that index have 

been especially sensitive to changes 

in economic conditions— energy, food, 

and shelter costs.

The slowdown in the rate of inflation 

since 1981 has reflected the sharp 

slump in the demand for energy and 

the slow decline in the increase of 

food prices during a worldwide 

economic recession.
37

International

events have had a

strong influence

on the CPI

Percent

1 5 -

1 2 -

9 - Oil embargo

6 —

Vietnam War

3 -

0 — i

i i i i I i i i i I i i

1960 1965 1970

Iranian

crisis

i i

1975 1980

Chart 27. Annual rate of change in CPI, 1960-83
Prices and Living Conditions 38

Variations in the prices of some 300 items are reflected

in the CPI

P

rice changes for individual

items and groups of items may 

vary substantially from the 

average. Medical care prices, for example, have risen over twice as much 

as clothing prices since 1967.

Changes in medical care prices or 

apparel prices have much less effect 

on the CPI than a change of the same 

magnitude in housing prices because 

housing is a much more important 

item in the household budget. During 

both the 1973-74 and 1978-81 periods 

of double-digit inflation, food, energy, 

and shelter prices accounted for twothirds of the increase in the CPI. It 

was the increase in food prices that 

had the greatest effect on the index in 

earlier years and the rise in shelter 

prices that had the greatest effect in 

1978-81.

Similarly, the slowdown in the rise 

of energy, food, and shelter prices accounted for most of the slowdown in 

the CPI that began in 1981. Prices of 

other items also rose less.
39

Medical care,

housing, and

transport prices

have risen faster

than other prices

Chart 29. Percent increases for major expenditure groups from 

1967 through 1983

Housing is the

biggest

expenditure in

the CPI market

basket

Chart 30. Relative importance of major expenditure groups, 

December 1983
Prices and Living Conditions 40

Consumers have been changing their food buying habits

A

merican families have been 

spending a smaller share of 

their budgets on food than 

they did in the past. A century ago, 

nearly half of the average spending 

dollar went for food; in recent years, 

less than a fourth, leaving a larger 

share for shelter, recreation, and other 

items. But families in the lower income 

bracket (the bottom 20 percent) still 

spend more than 40 percent of their 

income on food. Meals away from 

home (restaurants) now account for 

almost a third of the total food budget 

of all families.

Data on consumer spending are 

now being obtained by BLS in a program of continuing surveys launched 

during 1980-81.
41

Consumers have

been spending

less of their 1888

income on food,

but spending

more of their food 1950

budget in

restaurants

1980-81

(estimated)

Percent

I

50

Chart 31. Food spending as a percent of family income, 

selected years

Income group 

Lower 20%

Middle 20%

Upper 20%

Percent 0 10 20 30 40 50

Chart 32. Food expenditures by income group, 1981

Chart 33. Food away from home as percent of all food 

expenditures, selected periods
Prices and Living Conditions 42

The producer price index is used as a principal indicator

of economic trends

T

he Bureau’s Producer Price 

Indexes are important 

measures of inflation. The 

stage of processing indexes, particularly the Finished Goods Price Index, 

facilitate the analysis of inflationary 

movements throughout the economy. 

They also permit the tracing of the effects of government price stabilization 

efforts and wage and price policies 

directed at specific industries. Private 

business firms use PPI data in 

forecasting, in market analysis, and in 

comparing their costs with the prices 

they receive for their products with national averages. But one of the more 

important uses of PPI data by 

businesses is as an escalator in longterm sales and purchase contracts.
43

Raw material

prices are more

volatile and

generally rise

faster than prices

for intermediate

or finished goods

Chart 34. Produce price indexes by stage of processing, 1967-83

Changes in

producer prices

for finished

goods are a

barometer of

inflation in the

overall economy

Percent change

CPI commodities

2 —

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

Chart 35. Retail and producer price changes for consumer 

goods, 1968-83
Prices and Living Conditions 44

Import and export price indexes are used to analyze

American price competitiveness

O

ver the past two decades, the 

United States has greatly increased its sales to foreign 

countries and its purchases from 

them. Exports of merchandise rose 

from 8 to 15 percent of the Nation’s 

output of goods. The rise in imports 

was even greater—from 6 to 19 

percent.

The rapid growth of foreign trade 

has made it increasingly necessary to 

measure changes in prices of imported and exported merchandise, 

because these prices (along with 

changes in the value of the dollar in 

terms of foreign currencies) greatly influence the flow of trade, and also 

have an effect on price levels in the 

U.S. economy. But until the 1980’s, 

the United States did not have comprehensive indexes covering all imports and exports of merchandise.

Comprehensive indexes now are being 

issued by the BLS and provide better 

information on price trends of exports 

and imports. They also are important 

tools in the escalation of contracts 

where imported or exported products 

represent a substantial share of total 

cost, and in other economic studies.

The relationship between prices and 

the exchange rate value of the dollar 

is illustrated by data on the machinery 

and equipment industry, which accounts for more than a third of U.S. 

merchandise exports. The increasing 

value of the dollar since 1980 has 

meant that it buys more in the world 

market than it did earlier. At the same 

time, the decline in the value of 

foreign currencies has made it more 

costly for other countries to buy from 

the United States. This trend has tended to discourage foreign buyers of 

U.S. goods and exerted pressure on 

U.S. exporters to hold prices steady; it 

also has increased the attractiveness 

to foreigners of selling in the U.S. 

market and put downward pressure on 

U.S. import prices. During the 1970’s, 

however, when the value of the dollar 

generally was declining in terms of 

foreign currencies, there was a growing incentive for foreigners to buy U.S. 

products, and a declining incentive for 

them to sell products in the U.S. 

market.
45

The importance

of foreign trade

has doubled

since 1960

Chart 36. Exports and imports as a percent of Gross National 

Product, 1960 and 1983

The increasing

value of the U.S.

dollar drives up

prices of U.S. ex

ports in foreign

currencies

Chart 37. Price indexes of exports of machinery and 

transportation equipment in U.S. dollars and in foreign 

currencies, 1979-83
Occupational Safety and Health 46

Occupational injury and illness rates have fallen over the

past decade, especially in the goods-producing sector

S

ince 1972, when the Bureau 

began a new statistical series 

on occupational injuries and 

illnesses for private industry, the total 

injury and illness incidence rate declined despite a sizeable increase in 

employment. On average, 1 in 13 

workers was injured or became ill in 

1982 compared with 1 in 10 in 1972. 

However, there has been virtually no 

change in the rate of occurrence of 

lost workday cases.

The total injury and illness rate in 

the goods-producing sector has been 

about double the rate in the serviceproducing sector. Traditionally, factory 

work and construction jobs have contributed the lion’s share to these high 

rates. Nevertheless, since 1979, there 

has even been a drop in the rates in 

the construction and manufacturing industries.

Except for transportation and public 

utilities, where rates are comparable 

to the goods-producing industries, incidence rates in the service-producing 

industries have remained almost 

stable. In fact, because many industries in this sector have a low risk 

of injury or illness, they are exempt 

from the Occupational Safety and 

Health Administration’s general recordkeeping requirements.

But despite the overall decline, 

there were still almost 5 million jobrelated injuries and recognized illnesses in 1982.
47

The incidence of

lost workday

cases has

remained virtually

unchanged over

the decade

Chart 38. Occupational injury and illness incidence rates in 

the private sector, 1972 and 1982

Rates per 100 full-time workers 

1 2 — H

1 0 -

8 -

Total cases

Lost workday cases

Cases without 

lost workdays

6 —

4 —

2 —

0 —

1972 1982

Workers in

goods-producing

industries face a

greater chance of

injury or illness

on the job than

service-producing

workers

Chart 39. Occupational injury and illness rates by major 

industry sector, 1972-82
Economic Growth and Employment Projections 48

The next decade will bring a slowdown in labor force

growth and an increase in jobs in the services industries

L

abor force growth is expected 

to slow through 1995 in contrast to the increases registered from 1970 to 1982. Fewer persons reached working age in recent 

years because the high birth rates of 

the 1950’s and early 1960’s have not 

been sustained. In addition, fewer 

teenagers are entering the labor force 

than in previous years, a trend likely to 

continue. While women’s labor force 

participation is the highest it has ever 

been, the rate of increase has begun 

to slow, especially among those who 

are 20 to 44 years old.

The continuing shift from goodsproducing to service-producing jobs, 

begun several decades ago, will grow 

even more pronounced over the next 

10 years. Manufacturing still will, 

however, be an important source of 

new jobs in the years ahead.
49

During the late

1980’s and early

1990’s, labor

force growth will

be largely among

25-to-54-year olds

with declines

falling heaviest

on older and

younger men

Chart 40. Annual rate of labor force change, 1950-82 and 

projected 1982-95

Industries

providing services

employ more

people than those

providing goods

and will continue

to do so in future

years

Chart 41. Employment by major economic sector, 1955-82 and 

projected 1982-95
Economic Growth and Employment Projections 50

Projected growth of major occupations will follow past

patterns

P

rofessional and technical jobs 

will continue their rapid expansion and will account for 

the largest numerical increase in job

among the major occupational groups. 

Clerical jobs also will have a large 

numerical increase over this period. 

Although growth rates for these 

workers are expected to be only 

average, clerical jobs will continue to 

employ more workers than any other 

major group. Farm workers are expected to continue their long term 

decline.

Technological change will continue 

to have a significant affect on occupational growth. The continuing development of computer technology and the 

increasing use of computers in a wide 

variety of functions, for example, will 

have a significant effect on growth 

among detailed occupations. Five of 

the ten occupations expected to have 

the fastest growth from 1982 to 

1995 are directly associated with the 

computer.
51

Half of the 10

fastest growing

occupations will

be in computer

fields

Computer Service 

Technicians

Legal Assistants 

Computer Operators 

Office Machine Repairers 

Physical Therapy Assistants 

Civil Engineering Technicians

Peripheral EDP Equipment 

Operators

Electrical and Electronic 

Technicians

Mechanical Engineering 

Technicians 

Registered Nurses

I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Percent change 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Chart 42. Occupations projected to have the fastest growth, 

1982-95

Between 1982

and 1995,

professional/

technical, clerical

and sales

occupations will

experience the

largest growth

Clerical

Professional and Technical

Service

Operatives

Craft

Managers and Administrators

Sales

Nonfarm Laborers

Farm Workers

I

1982

Projected 1995 

l l l l l

Millions 0

I I I I I

5 10 15 20 25

Chart 43. Employment by major occupation group, 1982 

and projected 1995
I

52

A note on sources

Current data from the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics, represented by the 

charts in this bulletin, are available 

from a variety of sources. These include the Bureau’s news releases, 

periodicals, bulletins and reports, and 

its file of unpublished data contained 

in the Bureau’s computer data banks. 

To assist the reader in locating more 

information on BLS programs, including analytical articles, technical 

program descriptions, and detailed 

statistical compilations, the references 

found here have been organized by 

source.

NEWS RELEASES

Employee Benefits (annual) 

Employment Cost Index (quarterly) 

Major Collective Bargaining 

Settlements (quarterly)

Multifactor Productivity Indexes 

(annual)

Occupational Safety and Health 

Statistics (annual)

Producer Price Indexes (monthly) 

Productivity and Costs: Nonfarm 

Business, and Manufacturing 

Sectors (quarterly)

Productivity and Costs: Nonfinancial 

Corporate Sector (quarterly)

Real Earnings (monthly)

State and Metropolitan Area 

Unemployment (monthly)

The Consumer Price Index (monthly) 

The Employment Situation (monthly) 

U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes 

(quarterly)
53

PERIODICALS

C P I D e t a i l e d R e p o r t . Provides current 

data on consumer price movements 

and rates of change as well as 

technical notes and charts, (monthly)

C u r r e n t W a g e D e v e l o p m e n t s . Presents 

current information and analytical articles on employee compensation, collective bargaining activities, and 

statistical summaries of wage and 

benefit changes and work stoppages, 

(monthly)

E m p l o y m e n t a n d E a r n in g s . In addition 

to articles describing the most recent 

statistical procedures in the employment and unemployment statistics programs, contains current detailed data 

on the labor force, earnings, employment, unemployment, and various 

worker characteristics, (monthly)

E m p l o y m e n t in P e r s p e c t i v e : M i n o r i t y

W o r k e r s : Provides latest quarterly data 

on the employment situation of 

workers who are black, of Hispanic 

origin, and white. Data are disaggregated by sex. (quarterly)

E m p l o y m e n t in P e r s p e c t i v e : W o r k i n g

W o m e n : Provides latest data on the 

employment characteristics of working 

women, including their labor force participation rates, employment status, 

unemployment rates, and family 

status. Most data are disaggregated 

by age. (quarterly)

M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v ie w . Contains the 

results of BLS research, analytical articles, regular monthly departments, 

and current statistics on employment 

and unemployment, prices, wages, 

and productivity, (monthly)

O c c u p a t i o n a l O u t l o o k Q u a r t e r l y . Provides information on new occupations, 

training opportunities, salary trends, 

and career counseling programs.

P r o d u c e r P r i c e s a n d P r i c e I n d e x e s . Includes price movements on both farm 

and industrial goods, by industry and 

stage of processing as well as 

technical notes, (monthly)

U .S . D e p a r t m e n t o f S t a t e I n d e x e s o f

L i v i n g C o s t s A b r o a d , Q u a r t e r s

A l l o w a n c e s , a n d E i a r d s h i p D i f f e r e n ­

t i a l s : Contains data for foreign cities 

computed by the Department of State 

to establish allowances to compensate 

American civilian government 

employees for costs and hardships 

related to organizations to assist in 

establishing compensation systems.
54

BULLETINS AND REPORTS

A B L S R e a d e r o n P r o d u c t i v i t y , Bulletin 

2171, June 1983

A C e n t u r y o f C h a n g e in B o s t o n F a m i l y

C o n s u m p t i o n P a t t e r n s (New England 

Regional Office) Regional Report 79-5, 

1979

A n a l y s i s o f W o r k S t o p p a g e s (Annual 

Bulletins; publication discontinued with 

the release of 1980 data.)

B a r g a i n i n g C a l e n d a r (annual bulletin.)

B L S E c o n o n i c G r o w t h M o d e l S y s t e m

U s e d F o r P r o j e c t i o n s t o 1 9 9 0 , Bulletin 

2112, 1982

B L S F i a n d b o o k o f M e t h o d s , Vol. I, 

Bulletin 2134-1, Dec. 1982

Labor Force Chapters 1-3

Prices and Living Conditions

Chapters 6-8

Wages and Industrial Relations

Chapters 9-12

Productivity and Technology

Chapters 13-16

Occupational Safety and Health

Chapter 17

B L S F i a n d b o o k o f M e t h o d s , Vol. II, 

Bulletin 2134-2, April 1984, The Consumer Price Index

B L S M a c h i n e - r e a d a b l e D a t a a n d

T a b u l a t i n g R o u t i n e s , Report 620, 1981

B L S P u b l i c a t i o n s o n P r o d u c t i v i t y a n d

T e c h n o lo g y , Report 671, Oct. 1982

D i r e c t o r y o f N a t i o n a l U n i o n s a n d

E m p l o y e e A s s o c i a t i o n s , Bulletin 2079, 

Sept. 1980

E m p l o y m e n t P r o j e c t i o n s f o r 1 9 9 5 ,

Bulletin 2197, 1984

E s c a l a t i o n a n d P r o d u c e r P r i c e

I n d e x e s : A G u i d e f o r C o n t r a c t i n g

P a r t i e s , Report 570, 1979

F i a n d b o o k o f L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s , Bulletin 

2175, Dec. 1983

I n d u s t r y W a g e S u r v e y s : (Various industries and dates; BLS Bulletin

series.
55

L a b o r F o r c e S t a t i s t i c s D e r i v e d f r o m

t h e C u r r e n t P o p u l a t i o n S u r v e y : A

D a t a b o o k , Vols. I and II. Bulletin 2096, 

Sept. 1982

N a t i o n a l S u r v e y o f P r o f e s s i o n a l , A d ­

m i n i s t r a t i v e , T e c h n i c a l , a n d C l e r i c a l

P a y , M a r c h 1 9 8 3 , Bulletin 2181, 1983

O c c u p a t i o n a l I n j u r i e s a n d I l l n e s s e s in

t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b y I n d u s t r y , Bulletin 

2164, 1983

P e r s p e c t i v e s o n W o r k i n g W o m e n : A

D a t a b o o k , Bulletin 2080, Oct. 1980

P r o d u c t i v i t y a n d t h e E c o n o m y : A

C h a r t b o o k , Bulletin 2172, June 1983

P r o d u c t i v i t y M e a s u r e s f o r S e l e c t e d I n ­

d u s t r i e s , 1 9 5 4 - 8 2 , Bulletin 2189, Dec. 

1983

S p e c i a l L a b o r F o r c e D e p o r t s , (Reprints 

from the M o n t h l y L a b o r F le v ie w covering various aspects of the labor force; 

includes detailed tables not published 

in the Review.) Bulletin 2192, 

“ Students, Dropouts, and Graduates,’’ 

Dec. 1983

T a b l e s o f W o r k i n g L i f e : T h e I n c r e m e n t -

D e c r e m e n t M o d e l , Bulletin 2135, Nov. 

1982

T r e n d s in M u l t i f a c t o r P r o d u c t i v i t y ,

1 9 4 8 - 8 1 , Bulletin 2178, Sept. 1983

U n i o n W a g e s a n d B e n e f i t s : B u i l d i n g

T r a d e s , July 1980, Bulletin 2091

C o n s u m e r E x p e n d i t u r e S u r v e y : D i a r y

S u r v e y , 1 9 8 0 - 8 1 , Bulletin 2173, 1983

W a g e D i f f e r e n c e s A m o n g M e t r o p o l i t a n

A r e a s , 1 9 8 2 , Summary 83-5, 1983

OTHER DATA SOURCES

N a t i o n a l I n d u s t r y - O c c u p a t i o n E m p l o y ­

m e n t M a t r i x , 1 9 8 2 t o 1 9 9 5 A l t e r n a t i v e s

(Published by the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics but available only from the 

National Technical Information 

Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, 

Springfield, VA 22161.)

U.S. Bureau of the Census, H i s t o r i c a l

S t a t i s t i c s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , C o l o n i a l

T im e s t o 1 9 5 7 , Washington, D.C., 1960

U r b a n U . S ., A S t u d y o f C o n s u m e r E x ­

p e n d i t u r e s , I n c o m e s a n d S u r v e y s , Vol. 

XVIII, University of Pennsylvania, 1957

1 9 8 2 - 8 3 S o u r c e B o o k o f H e a l t h I n ­

s u r a n c e D a t a , Health Insurance 

Association of America, 1983
56

How to obtain BLS data

News releases

News releases are available without 

charge from the Bureau’s regional offices listed in this publication and from 

Inquiries and Correspondence, Bureau 

of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C. 

20212. Regular mailings of releases on 

specific subjects are available upon 

request to be put on the mailing list.

Periodicals

Subscriptions to the Bureau’s 

periodicals may be ordered from the 

Superintendent of Documents, U.S. 

Government Printing Office, 

Washington, D.C. 20402. Single copies 

also may be ordered.

Reports

Reports on national data are 

available without charge from the 

Washington or regional offices.

Regional offices also issue reports 

presenting local or regional data.

These are available from the 

originating office.

Bulletins

Bulletins may be purchased from 

any of the Bureau’s regional offices or 

from the Superintendent of Documents. Bulletins that are out of print 

may be available for reference at 

leading public, college, or university 

libraries, and at Federal depository 

libraries.

Machine-readable data

Many BLS published series are 

available on magnetic tapes, usually 

for a fee equal to costs. To purchase 

tapes, contact the Bureau’s Division of 

Financial Planning and Management 

for ordering information.

* U.S G.P.O. 1984-449- 18: 19027
BLS Regional Offices

Government Center, 

Boston, Mass. 02203

Region I —Boston

1603 JFK Federal Building,

Region III—Philadelphia

3535 Market Street,

P.O. Box 13309, 

Philadelphia, Pa. 19101

Region II—New York

1515 Broadway,

Suite 3400,

New York, N.Y. 10036

Region IV—Atlanta

1371 Peachtree Street, N.E., 

Atlanta, Ga. 30367

Region V—Chicago

9th Floor,

Federal Office Building,

230 S. Dearborn Street,

Chicago, III. 60604

Region VI—Dallas

Second Floor,

555 Griffin Square Building,

Dallas, Tex. 75202

Regions VI and VIII—Kansas City

911 Walnut Street,

Kansas City, Mo. 64106

Regions IX and X—San Francisco

450 Golden Gate Avenue,

P.O. Box 36017,

San Francisco, Calif. 94102