USA Banner
  U.S. flag
              An official website of the United States government Here's how you knowOfficial US Government Icon
              **Official websites use .gov**A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
            Secure Site Icon
              **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
                  A **lock** ( A locked padlock ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. 
 U.S. Department of Transportation Icon United States Department of Transportation
 Search DOT
            Search
                    About FHWAFHWA Organization
                Headquarters Offices
                Field Offices
                Strategic Plan
                Business Opportunities
                Staff Directories
                Careers
                Highway History
                Contact UsProgramsAcquisition Management
                Civil Rights
                Federal Lands Highway
                Infrastructure
                Innovative Program Delivery
                Operations
                Planning, Environment, and Realty
                Policy
                Research, Development, and Technology
                Safety
                Browse by TopicsResourcesCore Highway Topics
                Federal Aid Essentials
                Automation
                Complete Streets
                Laws and Regulations
                Policy & Guidance Center
                Section 508
                Publications and Statistics
                Professional Development
                National Highway Institute
                Resource Center
                Accessibility Resource Library
                FHWA Research LibraryNewsroomPress Releases
                Speeches & Testimony
                Photos
                Videos
                Media ContactsMenu OFFICE OF RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY AT THE TURNER-FAIRBANK HIGHWAY RESEARCH CENTER Home
                        Research


            
            In This Section
        Explore Research and Technology
                HSIS Home
                Program History
                                Background
                Participating States
                Laboratory
                PBCAT App
                                Pedestrian and Bicycle Crash Analysis Tool
                Getting Started
                Crash Typing
                Features
                User Guide
                Support Images
                Products
                                Product Overview
                HSIS Summaries
                Research Reports
                Technical Summaries
                Journal Citations
                Safety Analysis Tools
                Other Products
                Data
                                Data Overview
                State Statistics
                Data Elements
                Guidebooks
                Resources
                Ongoing Research
                Contact
                Liaisons
                Site Map
                
                A Framework for Developing Road Risk Indices Using Quantile Regression Based Crash Prediction Model
Publication Information
              Publication External Link:Link not available
              Publication Type:Other
                  Publication Number:N/A
              Abstract:Safety reviews of existing roads are becoming a popular practice of many agencies nationally and internationally. Knowing road safety information is of great importance to both policymakers in addressing safety concerns and travelers in managing their trips. There have been various efforts in developing methodologies to measure and assess road safety in an effective manner. However, the existing research and practices are still constrained by their subjective and reactive nature.



The goal of this research is to develop a framework of Road Risk Indices (RRIs) to assess road risks of existing highway infrastructure for both road users and agencies based on road geometrics, traffic conditions, and historical crash data. The proposed RRIs are intended to give a comprehensive and objective view of road safety, so that safety problems can be identified at an early stage before they rise in the form of accidents. A methodological framework of formulating RRIs that integrates results from crash prediction models and historical crash data is proposed, and Linear Referencing tools in the ArcGIS software are used to develop digital maps to publish estimated RRIs.

These maps provide basic Geographic Information System (GIS) functions, including viewing and querying RRIs, and performing spatial analysis tasks. A semi-parameter count model and quantile regression based estimation are proposed to capture the specific characteristics of crash data and provide more robust and accurate predictions on crash counts. Crash data collected on Interstate Highways in Washington State for the year 2002 was extracted from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) and used for the case study. The results from the case study show that the proposed framework is capable of capturing statistical correlations between traffic crashes and influencing factors, leading to the effective integration of safety information in composite indices.
              Publishing Date:January 2011
                                                  FHWA Program(s):Research
              Safety
              AMRP Program(s):Safety Data and Analysis
              FHWA Activities:Highway Safety Information System
              Subject Area:Safety and Human Factors U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

**Federal Highway Administration**

1200 NEW JERSEY AVENUE, SE

WASHINGTON, DC 20590

202-366-4000Subscribe to email updates
                    About
  

        
              About FHWA
                Careers
                Org Chart
                Staff Directories
                Work with UsPrograms
  

        
              Acquisition Management
                Civil Rights
                Federal Lands Highway
                Infrastructure
                Innovative Program Delivery
                Operations
                Planning, Environment, and Realty
                Policy
                Research, Development, and Technology
                SafetyPolicies, Rights, Legal
  

        
              About DOT
                Accessibility
                Budget and Performance
                Civil Rights
                FOIA
                Information Quality
                No FEAR Act
                Office of Inspector General
                Privacy Policy
                USA.gov
                Web Policies and Notices
                Web StandardsNews & Events
  

        
              Newsroom
                Press Releases
                Speeches & Testimony
                Media Contacts
                Connect with Us