10A -i APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NATIONAL
IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEETS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1
10A.2 INDIVIDUAL SHIPMENTS MODEL WORKSHEETS ...................................................1
10A.3 INDIVIDUAL NIA MODEL WORKSHEETS ...................................................................2
10A.4 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS ....................................................................................................310A -1 APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NATIONAL
IMPACT ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET S

10A.1 INTRODUCTION

The results obtained for the shipments analysis and national impacts analysis (NIA) can be examined and reproduced using Microsoft Excel spreadsheet s available on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies website at: h ttp://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/fluorescent_lamp_ballast
s.html

. The spreadsheet s post ed represent the latest version s that have been tested with both
Microsoft Excel 2003 and 2007. Microsoft Excel 2003 or later is required to execute th e spreadsheets

.

There is one spreadsheet for both the shipments and the NIA model. This spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast shipments during the analysis period (2014–2015), the national energy savings (NES

, i.e. , the change in national energy use from the base to standards cases)

, and the net present value (NPV) from an energy conservation standard. The energy use and associated costs for a given candidate standard level (CSL) are determined first by calculating the shipments and then calculating the energy use and costs for all products shipped under that CSL. The differences between the standards and base cases can then be compared , and the
overall NES and NPV determined.

10A.2 INDIVIDUAL SHIPMENTS MODEL WORKSHEETS

There are several shipment worksheets in the NIA workbook, as listed and described
below.

Assumptions This worksheet contains the assumptions for ballast lifetime and operating hours.

Charts This sheet contains stock data organized into various charts.

Data Tables Ship Th is sheet summarises data from “Details Ship” for standards and base case by type of lamps operated by a ballast.

Data Tables Stock This sheet is summarises data from “Details Stock” for standards and base case by type of lamps operated by a ballast.

Details Growth (LE2) This sheet contains data on shipments from life event 2 (LE2) : installation of a new lamp

- and

- ballast system by product class, CSL, and sector.

Details Ship This sheet contains shipments results in any given analysis year by product class and standard level both for base case and standards

case as well as sector ( residential, commercial

, or industrial ).10A -2 Details Stock This sheet contains data on stock of ballast for any given analysis year by product class and standard level bot h for base case and

st andards case as well as sector ( residential, commercial

, or industrial).

Details Replacement ( Life Event 1, LE1) This sheet contains data on shipments from LE1 : replacement of a failed ballast by product class, CSL, and sector.

Emerging Technology This sheet describes the effective l ight -e mitting diode ( LED ) penetration rate over the analysis period for selected product classes. The numbers presented represent the quantity of LED purchased in displaced ballast sales.

Engine ering Summary This sheet contains engineering data about the various representative products.

Historical Shipments This sheet summarizes historical data on ballast shipments in
1990

**−** 2005.

Initial Stock This sheet stores data on the initial stock and the break down of that stock by product class

.

Summary Shipments This sheet aggregates shipments results by product class and standard level both for base case and standards case, projected
until 2045.

Summary Stock This sheet is identical to the Shipments Summary sheet but aggregates stock information rather than shipments information.

10A.3 INDIVIDUAL NIA MODEL WORKSHEETS

The NIA Model , which consists of nine worksheets, relies on shipments data produced. Four of the worksheets are presented twic e each : once at a 3

- percent discount rate and once at a 7-percent discount rate.

Assumptions This worksheet contains the assumptions of ballasts lifetime and operating hours.

Ballasts Cost List This spreadsheet presents LCC and its components by product
class and life event.

Data Tables NPV Net installed price, annual electricity use

, annual maintenance

costs

, and LCC values for both base and standards cases are calculated by product class and life event on this worksheet according to user input s from “Summary Results

. ”10A -3 Electricity Prices This sheet contains projected average electricity prices by sector (residential, industrial, and commercial) for the economic gr owth scenarios: reference, high, and low.

Engineering Summary This sheet cont ains engineering data about the var ious representative products

.

NPV Tables Ship This sheet provides results similar to “Data Tables NPV” but also gives a breakdown by sector (residential, commercial, and industrial).

NIA Outputs This sheet provide s the main results of the simulation; it aggregates the NES , annual operating cost savings, instalment costs, and
NPV. These results are presented in the technical support document (TSD) executive summary and c hapter 10 , National Impact Analysis.

Operating Hours This sheet contains operating hour distributions by sector (residential, commercial, or i ndustrial).

Summary of Results This spreadsheet contains the main switchboard that takes in user inputs. Model parameters such as efficiency level, energy prices trend, discount rate, etc. are defined by user. Shipments resulting from chosen parameters are also presented.

10A.4 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS

Below are basic instruction for ope rating shipments and NIA workbook:

1. Once the spreadsheet file is downloaded, open the file usin g Excel

, and enable macros. Begin with the tab

, “Summary of Results

. ”

2. The user can cha n ge the model parameters listed in the light blue box named “Use r Inputs” as follows:

a. CSL Standard: S elect the desired candidate standard level from the drop -down menu.

b. Standards Case Efficacy: S elect either Roll -up or Shift scenario for the standards

case

. The difference between th e scenarios is described in TSD c hapter 9 , Shipment s Analysis.

c. Technology Level : S elect between Existing Technologies and E merging
Technolo gies for the base case. The Existing T echnolog ies scenario implies that LED
and ceramic metal halide ( CMH ) systems do not affect FLB market, while the Emerging Technologies scenario considers penetration of LED and CMH systems.

d. Standard First Year : F ixed at 2014, this sets the first year that the CSL standards are in effect.10A -4 e. Impact Last Year : The default setting is 2045 for the 30- year analysis period; use the drop-down menu to select a shorter period.

f. Discount Rate : S elect the desired discount rate for the NIA analysis. To change the
value (ranges from 3 percent to 9 percent ), use the drop-down menu.

g. Electricity Price Growth: U se the drop- down menu to select the desired electricity price growth case (reference, high , or low).

3. The user can cha n ge the forecast settings, view the current precision level, and run the model by changing the parameter listed in the yellow box named “ Forecast Settings ” with the following parameter:

Precision Level : S elect the level of precision with which to increase the model. A higher level will produce more accurate results but will require more time to generate the forecast. DOE produces its results by setting this value to Level 10 (max imum ).

4. Once the selection is made, click the “Run Forecast ” button on the right. This will increase the current precision level of the model by the value set by the precision level drop-down box. Depending on computer speed, it could take from 30 minutes to 2 hours to complete a simulation.

Note : After a simulation finishes, clickin g the “Run Simulation” button will cause the
model to run again and will incrementally increase the precision level. Using this technique, gradually increase the precision level through successive runs; this is an effective way of running the model with sl ower machines. Similarly

, clicking the “Clear
Simulation” button will reset the model, clearing results and setting the precision level
back to 0.

5. The NIA results are automatically updated and reported for each product class on the “NIA Outputs” tab. Ship ments results are aggregated by product cl ass on the “Summary of Results,” “Summary Shipments

, ” and “Summary Stock” sheets

.